Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 02/20/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
859 AM MST THU FEB 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A TURN TOWARDS SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS IS ON TAP TODAY AND FRIDAY...AS A UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO WARM WELL BACK UP INTO
THE 80S FROM THIS WEEKEND ONWARD INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MAKING SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH WEAK FORCING AHEAD OF THE FRONT PROVIDING
EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND A THIN BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES. FOR THE REST OF TODAY AM EXPECTING THE COLD FRONT TO
PUSH THROUGH ARIZONA WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF
OUR AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PHOENIX AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND
THEN PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THIS AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL OUT OF THIS BAND...BUT IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND IN
VERY LOCALIZED AREAS...MORE LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HAVE
UPDATED THE NEAR TERM FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS...MAINLY COVERING
AREAS WITH SPRINKLES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO KNOCKED A
DEGREE OR TWO OFF OUR HIGHS TODAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AS THE
CLOUDINESS DURING THE MID PART OF THE DAY AND COOLING ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP MANY AREAS FROM BREACHING THE 80 DEGREE MARK. ADDITIONAL MID
LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH WILL AGAIN PROVIDE FOR QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUDINESS AND CONTINUED COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY... AFTER A VERY WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SAW
THE EARLIEST 90 DEGREE HIGH ON RECORD AT PHOENIX SKY HARBOR...A TURN
TOWARDS SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES IS STILL EXPECTED TODAY AND
FRIDAY AS THE VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT BROUGHT US THE VERY
WARM WEATHER IS FLATTENED BY AN UPPER TROF THAT IS NOW MOVING INLAND
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. ALTHOUGH THE SFC COLD FRONT CAN BE SEEN
ON LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SE CA THIS
MORNING...VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS
PASSING OFF TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA WITH JUST A FEW SPRINKLES PERHAPS
REACHING THE GROUND OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF JOSHUA TREE
NATIONAL PARK. THE LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING VIRTUALLY NO RAINFALL WILL
MAKE IT TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SE CA AS THE SFC FRONT CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN AND MOST OF THE DYNAMICS/MOISTURE SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTH
WITH THE MAIN TROF. THE MAIN IMPACTS FOR MOST OF OUR CWA WILL BR A
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT
(500MB TEMPS FALLING FROM AROUND -8C TO 12C)...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN ABOUT A 8-10F COOLING OF OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM
WEDNESDAY/S VALUES TAKING LOWER DESERT HIGHS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 80S
ON BOTH DAYS. ON FRIDAY...THE GFS...NAM...AND SREF ARE ALL SHOWING A
PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO SW AND SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AS
A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS EMBEDDED IN BROAD MID LEVEL SWLY FLOW
MOVES INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH PWATS DO BRIEFLY SURGE UP INTO THE
0.70-0.90 INCH RANGE AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH...ONLY VIRGA OR
LIGHT SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED SINCE MOST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AOA 600MB WITH VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE NCEP SREF PLUMES SHOWING
NO MEASURABLE PRECIP AT PHOENIX.
SATURDAY THOUGH NEXT THURSDAY...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE VERY GOOD CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE MAIN GLOBAL
MODEL SUITES AND MANY OF THEIR RESPECTIVE MEMBERS ON THE FORECAST
FOR THIS PERIOD. THEY ALL ARE BUILDING VERY STRONG RIDGING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROF DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. THE
RESULT IS A DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH LOWER DESERT
HIGHS ONCE AGAIN RISING UP INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH CIGS WILL
REMAIN AOA 12K FT LIMITING ANY AVIATION IMPACT. STEADY EAST SFC
WINDS WILL RAPIDLY SWITCH TO A WESTERLY COMPONENT FASTER THAN USUAL
BY EARLY AFTERNOON BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE RATHER WEAK ALLOWING FAIR CONFIDENCE THAT
THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL RESUME BY MID EVENING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
TIMING WIND SHIFTS AND OCCASIONAL STRONGER GUSTS WILL THE MAIN
AVIATION FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR
TERMINAL LOCATIONS THIS MORNING SHOULD SHIFT EAST ALLOWING A PERIOD
OF GUSTY W/SW WINDS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25KT. NOCTURNAL
DECOUPLING SHOULD OCCUR QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH A NWLY COMPONENT
AND WIND SPEED UNDER 10KT. A FEW-SCT CLOUDS NEAR THE 6K FT LEVEL MAY
PASS WITH THE FRONT...BUT OTHERWISE CIGS WILL GENERALLY BY ABOVE 12K
FT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM STEADILY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR RECORD
SETTING WARMTH REGAINING A FOOTHOLD ON THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREDOMINATE WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY
LEVELS IN THE TEENS LOCALLY TOUCHING SINGLE DIGIT VALUES BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WEAK WITH THE TYPICAL DIURNAL
UPSLOPE/DRAINAGE COMPONENT...HOWEVER PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS MAY BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY YIELDING A LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
410 AM MST THU FEB 18 2016
...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER...
.SYNOPSIS...
A TURN TOWARDS SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS IS ON TAP TODAY AND FRIDAY...AS A UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO WARM WELL BACK UP INTO
THE 80S FROM THIS WEEKEND ONWARD INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
AFTER A VERY WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SAW THE EARLIEST 90 DEGREE
HIGH ON RECORD AT PHOENIX SKY HARBOR...A TURN TOWARDS SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPERATURES IS STILL EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY AS THE VERY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT BROUGHT US THE VERY WARM WEATHER IS
FLATTENED BY AN UPPER TROF THAT IS NOW MOVING INLAND INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT BASIN. ALTHOUGH THE SFC COLD FRONT CAN BE SEEN ON
LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SE CA THIS
MORNING...VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS
PASSING OFF TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA WITH JUST A FEW SPRINKLES
PERHAPS REACHING THE GROUND OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF JOSHUA
TREE NATIONAL PARK. THE LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING VIRTUALLY NO RAINFALL
WILL MAKE IT TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SE CA AS THE SFC FRONT
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOST OF THE DYNAMICS/MOISTURE SHIFT OFF TO
THE NORTH WITH THE MAIN TROF. THE MAIN IMPACTS FOR MOST OF OUR CWA
WILL BR A INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND SLIGHT
COOLING ALOFT (500MB TEMPS FALLING FROM AROUND -8C TO 12C)...WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ABOUT A 8-10F COOLING OF OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM WEDNESDAY/S VALUES TAKING LOWER DESERT HIGHS DOWN
INTO THE LOWER 80S ON BOTH DAYS. ON FRIDAY...THE GFS...NAM...AND
SREF ARE ALL SHOWING A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO SW
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AS A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS EMBEDDED IN
BROAD MID LEVEL SWLY FLOW MOVES INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH PWATS DO
BRIEFLY SURGE UP INTO THE 0.70-0.90 INCH RANGE AS THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH...ONLY VIRGA OR LIGHT SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED SINCE
MOST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOA 600MB WITH VIRTUALLY ALL OF
THE NCEP SREF PLUMES SHOWING NO MEASURABLE PRECIP AT PHOENIX.
SATURDAY THOUGH NEXT THURSDAY...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE VERY GOOD CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE MAIN GLOBAL
MODEL SUITES AND MANY OF THEIR RESPECTIVE MEMBERS ON THE FORECAST
FOR THIS PERIOD. THEY ALL ARE BUILDING VERY STRONG RIDGING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROF DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. THE
RESULT IS A DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH LOWER DESERT
HIGHS ONCE AGAIN RISING UP INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH CIGS WILL
REMAIN AOA 12K FT LIMITING ANY AVIATION IMPACT. STEADY EAST SFC
WINDS WILL RAPIDLY SWITCH TO A WESTERLY COMPONENT FASTER THAN USUAL
BY EARLY AFTERNOON BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE RATHER WEAK ALLOWING FAIR CONFIDENCE THAT
THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL RESUME BY MID EVENING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
TIMING WIND SHIFTS AND OCCASIONAL STRONGER GUSTS WILL THE MAIN
AVIATION FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR
TERMINAL LOCATIONS THIS MORNING SHOULD SHIFT EAST ALLOWING A PERIOD
OF GUSTY W/SW WINDS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25KT. NOCTURNAL
DECOUPLING SHOULD OCCUR QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH A NWLY COMPONENT
AND WIND SPEED UNDER 10KT. A FEW-SCT CLOUDS NEAR THE 6K FT LEVEL MAY
PASS WITH THE FRONT...BUT OTHERWISE CIGS WILL GENERALLY BY ABOVE 12K
FT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM STEADILY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR RECORD
SETTING WARMTH REGAINING A FOOTHOLD ON THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREDOMINATE WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY
LEVELS IN THE TEENS LOCALLY TOUCHING SINGLE DIGIT VALUES BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WEAK WITH THE TYPICAL DIURNAL
UPSLOPE/DRAINAGE COMPONENT...HOWEVER PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS MAY BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY YIELDING A LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
235 AM MST THU FEB 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS... A TURN TOWARDS SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS IS ON TAP TODAY AND FRIDAY...AS A UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO WARM WELL BACK UP INTO
THE 80S FROM THIS WEEKEND ONWARD INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
AFTER A VERY WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH SAW THE EARLIEST 90
DEGREE HIGH ON RECORD AT PHOENIX SKY HARBOR...A TURN TOWARDS
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES IS STILL EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY...AS
THE VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT BROUGHT US THE VERY WARM
WEATHER IS FLATTENED BY AN UPPER TROF THAT IS NOW MOVING INLAND INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. ALTHOUGH THE SFC COLD FRONT CAN BE SEEN ON
LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SE CA THIS
MORNING...VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS
PASSING OFF TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA...WITH JUST A FEW SPRINKLES
PERHAPS REACHING THE GROUND OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF JOSHUA
TREE NATIONAL PARK. THE LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING VIRTUALLY NO RAINFALL
WILL MAKE IT TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SE CA AS THE SFC FRONT
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS MOST OF THE DYNAMICS/MOISTURE SHIFT OFF TO
THE NORTH AS THE MAIN TROF LIFTS OUT TO THE NE. THE MAIN IMPACTS FOR
MOST OF OUR CWA WILL BR A INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
AND SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT (500MB TEMPS FALLING FROM AROUND
-8C TO 12C)...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ABOUT A 8-10F COOLING
OF OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM WEDNESDAY/S VALUES...TAKING LOWER
DESERT HIGHS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 80S ON BOTH DAYS. ON FRIDAY...THE
GFS...NAM...AND SREF ARE ALL SHOWING A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
MOVING INTO SW AND SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...AS A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT
IS EMBEDDED IN BROAD MID-LEVEL SW-LY FLOW MOVES INTO THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH PWATS DO BRIEFLY SURGE UP INTO THE 0.70-0.90 INCH RANGE AS
THE SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH...ONLY VIRGA OR LIGHT SPRINKLES ARE
EXPECTED...SINCE MOST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOA
600MB...WITH VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE NCEP SREF PLUMES SHOWING NO
MEASURABLE PRECIP AT PHOENIX.
SATURDAY THOUGH NEXT THURSDAY...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE VERY GOOD CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE MAIN GLOBAL
MODEL SUITES AND MANY OF THEIR RESPECTIVE MEMBERS ON THE FORECAST
FOR THIS PERIOD. THEY ALL ARE BUILDING VERY STRONG RIDGING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AS A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROF DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. THE
RESULT IS A DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH LOWER DESERT
HIGHS ONCE AGAIN RISING UP INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S...UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SFC FRONT. TYPICAL DRAINAGE AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS WILL PRESENT
AT THE SFC OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER WINDS OFF SFC MAY MAINTAIN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY HEADINGS LONGER INTO THE EVENING WITH SPEEDS OF 20KTS
OR SO.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
ELEVATED WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WESTERLY AT KIPL AND
SOUTHERLY AT KBLH...AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SFC FRONT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
RANGE 10 TO 15KTS SUSTAINED WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20KTS. BKN-OVC
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST WITH SOME
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
RIVERSIDE COUNTY OVERNIGHT. SOME LOWERED CLOUD DECKS...5-7KFT...COULD
DEVELOP FOR KIPL LATER BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
MENTION IN 18/06Z TAFS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
WHILE SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER WILL BE SETTLED ACROSS THE DISTRICT
FRIDAY...NEAR RECORD SETTING WARMTH WILL REGAIN A FOOTHOLD ON THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO PREDOMINATE...ALTHOUGH A SPRINKLE WOULD NOT BE UNUSUAL OVER SRN
GILA COUNTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS TEMPORARILY IN
A 15 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE THIS WEEK WILL FALL BACK TO THE TEENS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WEAK WITH THE TYPICAL DIURNAL
UPSLOPE/DRAINAGE COMPONENT...HOWEVER PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS MAY BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
PHOENIX | YUMA
FCST | RECORD /YEAR/ | FCST | RECORD /YEAR/
HIGH HIGH
THU FEB 18 82 | 86 /2014 | 83 | 90 /1981
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...MO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EUREKA CA
1042 PM PST WED FEB 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...COLD FRONTS WILL BRING PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN AND
SHOWERS...GUSTY WINDS...AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED SATURDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED AS LOW AS 2700 FEET
THIS EVENING SO HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST. LOWERED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY TO 3000 FEET AND ADDED THE MENDOCINO INTERIOR TO
IT. THERE IS A LULL IN THE SHOWERS NOW BUT THE NAM AND HRRR SHOWS
SHOWERS PICKING UP AGAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. THE ADVISORY NOW INCLUDES BUCKHORN
SUMMIT ON HWY 299 AND PORTIONS OF HWY 3 AND 36. BERRY SUMMIT AND
OREGON MAY SEE SOME SNOW...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LESS THAN AN INCH. MKK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 739 PM PST...
UPDATE...SNOW LEVELS DROPPED A BIT MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED.
SO UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO 2500 TO 3000 FEET
LATER TONIGHT. SNOW WAS REPORTED FALLING AT 2500 FT IN KNEELAND
AND THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUPPORTED THIS. WITH THE RECENT WARM
TEMPERATURES THE GROUND IS LIKELY FAIRLY WARM. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE 3000 FEET AND SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATION ABOUT 3500 FT. SO WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY THE SAME.
IF THE GROUND COOLS OFF MORE THAN EXPECTED THE ADVISORY MAY NEED
TO BE LOWERED. IN MENDOCINO COUNTY SNOW WAS REPORTED AS STICKING
AT 4000 FEET...BUT ONLY A FEW OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS MAY REACH
ADVISORY LEVEL SO HELD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY. MKK
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 354 PM PST...
DISCUSSION...WEATHER IS BECOMING MUCH MORE ACTIVE ACROSS
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON AS AN IMPRESSIVE TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES ONTO THE COAST. AS THE FRONT MOVED ONTO
THE COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY WINDS WERE ABLE TO MIX
DOWNWARD ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND
WITH GUST SPEEDS REACHING APPROXIMATELY 40 TO 50 MPH ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. THIS WAS IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY INTERIOR
RIDGETOP WINDS THAT PERSISTED MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...PROMPTING
THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND SPEEDS
ARE QUICKLY DROPPING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BEHIND THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION AND COLD FRONT...AND THUS THE WIND
ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE PRIMARY BAND OF MODERATE STRATIFORM
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND.
MEANWHILE...SNOW LEVELS ARE QUICKLY DROPPING NEAR THE COAST...AND
WILL LIKELY FALL TO AROUND 4000 FEET THIS EVENING NEAR THE BACK
EDGE OF THE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND...AND EVENTUALLY TO AROUND
3000 TO 3500 FEET BY TOMORROW MORNING. AFTER WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A
2 TO 3 HOUR LULL IN PRECIPITATION...WAVES OF VIGOROUS SHOWERS
WILL MOVE ONTO THE COAST AND INLAND...RESULTING IN HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL NEAR THE
COAST. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...WITH A SURGE IN ACTIVITY LIKELY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF LATE TOMORROW...HOWEVER SOME AREAS
NEAR THE COAST MAY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE RIGHT UP UNTIL
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES EARLY FRIDAY. AS FOR THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...NO CHANGES WERE MADE AS THE SNOW FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK. EXPECT 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW BETWEEN 3500 AND
4500 FEET ELEVATION...WITH TOTALS APPROACHING A FOOT AT ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 4500 FEET. A FEW FLAKES TO PERHAPS A DUSTING OF SNOW WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING TO AS LOW AS 2500 TO
3000 FEET...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE TOO WARM TO
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS BELOW 3500 FEET...IE AT BERRY AND
OREGON MOUNTAIN SUMMIT PASSES ON HIGHWAY 299.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE
AT THE COAST EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER ROUND OF
MODERATE RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW ABOVE 4000
FEET. ALL IN ALL...BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING CONCERNS. AN ADDITIONAL WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED IN FUTURE FORECASTS FOR EARLY FRIDAY AS WELL. AFTER
FRIDAY...A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BRING A
RETURN TO OVERALL DRIER AND WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION. GLANCING BLOWS OF LIGHT RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THESE SYSTEMS WILL WEAKEN AS
THEY APPROACH THE COAST AND RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY LIGHT. /BRC
AVIATION...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW STRONGER WIND
GUSTS UP TO 30-40KTS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 0Z BEFORE SLIGHTLY
WEAKENING FOR THE EVENING DUE TO THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.
WITH THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH THE RAIN TERMINALS SHOULD STAY IN
VFR TO MVFR DURING THIS TIME FRAME. IF HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN OR
STRONGER SHOWERS PASS THROUGH...IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS A TROUGH WILL TRACK OVER US. PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE BUT MAY BE SHOWERY IN NATURE. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT WE WILL LIKELY STAY IN VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT WE COULD SEE IFR CRITERIA
AGAIN BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON THE INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP.
MARINE...A PASSING FRONT BROUGHT STRONG, GUSTY WINDS TO THE
WATERS TODAY WITH THE NEARSHORE BUOYS REPORTING 45 KT GUSTS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FRESH AND SOUTHERLY TONIGHT
AND EASE SLIGHTLY LATER THURSDAY. FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS THE OVERHEAD TROUGH MAINTAINS A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AGAINST THE INTERIOR SURFACE RIDGE SO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD SUFFICE FOR THE TIME BEING. THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BRING STRONGER GUSTS TO THE WATERS
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A GALE WARNING
WAS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
AS WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 45 KT. SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS
MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS OF
THIS MAGNITUDE WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE. THE STRONGEST WINDS,
HOWEVER, SHOULD BE MOSTLY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO AS THE FRONT
LIFTS OVER THE REGION. MEANWHILE, A WESTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND PEAK NEAR 16 TO 18 FT EARLY
THURSDAY. THEN LARGE, STEEP WAVES WILL BUILDING IN RESPONSE TO THE
INCREASING WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. KML
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THURSDAY ABOVE 3000 FEET
FOR CAZ003-004-076.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THURSDAY FOR PZZ450-470-475.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THURSDAY TO 3 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
PZZ450-470.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THURSDAY TO 9 AM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ455.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA
FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA/ZONEMAP.PNG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
715 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE INTO EARLY TUESDAY. A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY
AFFECT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER
RETURNS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN SOME SPOTTY VERY LIGHT PCPN
TONIGHT. AT MOST...ONE OR TWO HUNDREDS OF AN INCH.
BASED ON LATEST HRRR AND MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO
CONFINE CHANCE POPS TO NORTHERN ZONES...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR SOUTHERN ZONES. DO NOT EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO MEASURE.
ACROSS INTERIOR...BASED ON LATEST SOUNDINGS APPEARS THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH SATURATION BETWEEN 600-700MB AND TEMPS OF -5 TO -9C TO
ALLOW FOR SOME ICE NUCLEATION AND THEREFORE SNOW TO MIX IN
OVERNIGHT.
OVER ORANGE AND WESTERN PASSAIC COUNTIES...TEMPS WILL
BE CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING - THUS HAVE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT IN AFFECT FOR THAT REGION FOR POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE EXPANDED ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHERN CT AS TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S...AND TEMPS MAY HANG AROUND FREEZING OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS LOCATIONS HERE.
ELSEWHERE TEMPS WILL HOVER JUST ABOVE FREEZING OR BE RISING
OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.
SOUTH ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN...LOOKS LIKE ANY PCPN IS LIQUID WITH
SPRINKLES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN IS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TILL DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY ON SATURDAY WITH A SW FLOW THAT WILL
HELP PUSH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. HAVE USED CONSENSUS MOS FOR
NOW...BUT IF GFS MOS IS CORRECT...WE COULD APPROACH 60 IN THE
NJ/NYC METRO.
WEAK...AND DRY...COLD FROPA SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY ON SUNDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. AGAIN USED CONSENSUS MOS...BUT GFS MOS IS
WARMER AGAIN - NOT SURE OF THE REASON FOR THIS.
NEXT CONCERN IS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. GEFS PLUMES INDICATE THAT
THE OPERATIONAL 12Z IS AN OUTLIER. ALSO...THE PARALLEL GFS HAS
PCPN UP TO LONG ISLAND. WITH ECMWF...SREF...GEFS AND NAM ALL
SUPPORTING PCPN...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY. LOOKS LIKE THE
BULK OF THE PCPN COMES WITH WARM ADVECTION IN THE EVENING. THUS
WITH TEMPS NOT SUPPORTING SNOW ACCUMULATION...AMOUNTS ARE LOW.
IT`S NOT UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR AFTER THAT TEMPS START TO SUPPORT
ACCUMULATION.
TEMPS REMAIN TOO WARM IN THE NY METRO FOR ACCUMULATION.
PCPN EXITS BY SUNRISE ON MONDAY AND EXPECTING A SEASONABLE DAY ON
MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH...PROVIDING COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS EARLY ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF AND BEGINS TO TRACK ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD ON TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE REGION...WITH THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LIKELY MOVING INTO OUR REGION BY TUESDAY
EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS
THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO NOVA SCOTIA.
AT THIS TIME THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS STILL HAVE SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING...WITH THE GFS STILL THE FASTER COMPARED TO
THE ECMWF. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES WILL BE TO WARM ON TUESDAY TO SUPPORT SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT ACROSS FAR INLAND LOCATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT
AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. AS TEMPERATURES WARM
UP ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S THE ENTIRE REGION SHOULD BE
TRANSITION BACK TO PLAIN RAIN.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO PULL AWAY ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THE SYSTEM
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DOSE OF COLD AIR TO THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRES PASSES NORTH OF THE AIRSPACE TONIGHT...DRAGGING A
WARM FRONT THROUGH THE TERMINALS.
PRIMARILY A VFR FORECAST. HOWEVER...SOME -SHRA POSSIBLE AT MOST
TERMINALS AND MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE AT KSWF FOR A FEW HOURS
TONIGHT AS WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW...SO WILL CHANGE PROB30 GROUPS TO TEMPO GROUPS.
SATURDAY WILL BE VFR AND DRY.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY S 10-15 KT THIS EVENING AND MAY GUST AT
TIMES ALONG THE COAST. SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SW
10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 25KT ALONG COAST.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON WIND
GUSTS...AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON WIND
GUSTS...AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON WIND
GUSTS...AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON WIND
GUSTS...AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON WIND
GUSTS...AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON WIND
GUSTS...AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR.
.SUN NIGHT-MON...CHANCE OF MVFR IN RAIN AND OR SNOW. BECOMING VFR
LATE MON WITH ANY PRECIPITATION ENDING.
.TUE...VFR EARLY...BECOMING MVFR.
.TUE NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE.
.WED...IFR POSSIBLE EARLY...BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS PICK UP TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
THROUGH SE CANADA. SCA ON ALL WATERS TONIGHT...THEN CONTINUE ON
THE THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT ON SUNDAY WITH WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. AS IT DEPARTS...WINDS COULD BRIEFLY
APPROACH SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN. OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACK ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SEAS WILL
BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CRITERIA ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT ON FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN (HYDROLOGICAL) THROUGH SUNDAY. AROUND A
QUARTER INCH LIQUID/LIQUID EQUIVALENT SUNDAY NIGHT.
A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH POSSIBLY THURSDAY COULD BRING UP TO AN INCH OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...FIG/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...FIG/TONGUE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
638 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE INTO EARLY TUESDAY. A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY
AFFECT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER
RETURNS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN SOME SPOTTY VERY LIGHT PCPN
TONIGHT. AT MOST...ONE OR TWO HUNDREDS OF AN INCH. BASED ON
LATEST RAP AND HRRR AS WELL AS HRRRX...CONTINUE CONFINED POPS TO
NORTHERN ZONES - EVEN THIS MAY BE OVERDONE AS DO NOT EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS TO MEASURE. OVER ORANGE AND WESTERN PASSAIC
COUNTIES...TEMPS WOULD BE CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING -
THUS HAVE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IN AFFECT FOR THAT REGION.
ELSEWHERE TEMPS WILL HOVER JUST ABOVE FREEZING OR BE RISING WITH
SOUTH ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN...LOOKS LIKE ANY PCPN IS LIQUID AND HAVE
WORDED IT AS JUST SPRINKLES.
BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN IS AROUND MIDNIGHT.
TEMPS ARE STEADY OR RISING SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY ON SATURDAY WITH A SW FLOW THAT WILL
HELP PUSH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. HAVE USED CONSENSUS MOS FOR
NOW...BUT IF GFS MOS IS CORRECT...WE COULD APPROACH 60 IN THE
NJ/NYC METRO.
WEAK...AND DRY...COLD FROPA SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY ON SUNDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. AGAIN USED CONSENSUS MOS...BUT GFS MOS IS
WARMER AGAIN - NOT SURE OF THE REASON FOR THIS.
NEXT CONCERN IS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. GEFS PLUMES INDICATE THAT
THE OPERATIONAL 12Z IS AN OUTLIER. ALSO...THE PARALLEL GFS HAS
PCPN UP TO LONG ISLAND. WITH ECMWF...SREF...GEFS AND NAM ALL
SUPPORTING PCPN...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY. LOOKS LIKE THE
BULK OF THE PCPN COMES WITH WARM ADVECTION IN THE EVENING. THUS
WITH TEMPS NOT SUPPORTING SNOW ACCUMULATION...AMOUNTS ARE LOW.
IT`S NOT UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR AFTER THAT TEMPS START TO SUPPORT
ACCUMULATION.
TEMPS REMAIN TOO WARM IN THE NY METRO FOR ACCUMULATION.
PCPN EXITS BY SUNRISE ON MONDAY AND EXPECTING A SEASONABLE DAY ON
MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH...PROVIDING COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS EARLY ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF AND BEGINS TO TRACK ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD ON TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE REGION...WITH THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LIKELY MOVING INTO OUR REGION BY TUESDAY
EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS
THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO NOVA SCOTIA.
AT THIS TIME THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS STILL HAVE SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING...WITH THE GFS STILL THE FASTER COMPARED TO
THE ECMWF. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES WILL BE TO WARM ON TUESDAY TO SUPPORT SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT ACROSS FAR INLAND LOCATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT
AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. AS TEMPERATURES WARM
UP ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S THE ENTIRE REGION SHOULD BE
TRANSITION BACK TO PLAIN RAIN.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO PULL AWAY ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THE SYSTEM
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DOSE OF COLD AIR TO THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRES PASSES NORTH OF THE AIRSPACE TONIGHT...DRAGGING A
WARM FRONT THROUGH THE TERMINALS.
PRIMARILY A VFR FORECAST. HOWEVER...SOME -SHRA POSSIBLE AT MOST
TERMINALS AND MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE AT KSWF FOR A FEW HOURS
TONIGHT AS WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW...SO WILL CHANGE PROB30 GROUPS TO TEMPO GROUPS.
SATURDAY WILL BE VFR AND DRY.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY S 10-15 KT THIS EVENING AND MAY GUST AT
TIMES ALONG THE COAST. SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SW
10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 25KT ALONG COAST.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON WIND
GUSTS...AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON WIND
GUSTS...AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON WIND
GUSTS...AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON WIND
GUSTS...AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON WIND
GUSTS...AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON WIND
GUSTS...AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR.
.SUN NIGHT-MON...CHANCE OF MVFR IN RAIN AND OR SNOW. BECOMING VFR
LATE MON WITH ANY PRECIPITATION ENDING.
.TUE...VFR EARLY...BECOMING MVFR.
.TUE NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE.
.WED...IFR POSSIBLE EARLY...BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS PICK UP TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
THROUGH SE CANADA. SCA ON ALL WATERS TONIGHT...THEN CONTINUE ON
THE THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT ON SUNDAY WITH WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. AS IT DEPARTS...WINDS COULD BRIEFLY
APPROACH SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN. OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACK ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SEAS WILL
BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CRITERIA ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT ON FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN (HYDROLOGICALLY) THROUGH SUNDAY. AROUND A
QUARTER INCH LIQUID/LIQUID EQUIVALENT SUNDAY NIGHT.
A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH POSSIBLY THURSDAY COULD BRING UP TO AN INCH OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...FIG/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...FIG/TONGUE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
733 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH SATURDAY, DRAGGING A WEAK
COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN UNTIED STATES OVER THE
WEEKEND, CROSSING OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY,
SHIFTING FURTHER EAST MONDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE GULF COAST STATES TRACKING INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE AREA, BUT
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES IN THE
NORTH WERE THERE REMAINS A THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW
LITTLE IN THEY WAY OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT, AND THE GFS DOESN`T
SHOW MUCH EITHER, BUT THE NAM DOES, SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE SITUATION. THE SPS ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON CAPTURES THE
SITATUION FAIRLY WELL, SO WILL LET THAT RIDE FOR NOW.
...PREV NEAR TERM DISCUSSION BELOW... THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES
TONIGHT AND WITH IT CONSIDERABLE WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION
THROUGH THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...IT MAY NOT ARRIVE
EARLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME FREEZING PRECIPITATION OVER THE
POCONOS, LEHIGH VALLEY, AND NORTHWEST NJ. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
LIFT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AS WELL AS A LOW TO
MID LEVEL JET SHOULD PROPAGATE E OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF
SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS, FOR ONE, IT LOOKS LIKE OUR AREA
WILL BE ON THE FAR SOUTHERN END OF THE BEST LIFT. SECOND, DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE CURRENTLY 20 TO 25 DEGREES F, INDICATIVE OF
A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED, IT IS HARD TO SAY IF IT WILL OCCUR FAST ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND.
AS FOR PRECIP TYPE, GFS APPEARS TO BE THE FASTEST WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. HAVE FAVORED THE NAM WITH THE FORECAST AS THE
GFS HAS SHOWN A FAST BIAS WITH NOCTURNAL WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE
PAST. HIGHER CLOUDS COULD PROVIDE SOME ICE NUCLEI EARLY IN THE
EVENING TO SUPPORT SNOW OVER THE NW, BUT ONCE THOSE DISSIPATE, DO
NOT SEE A SIGNIFICANT SOURCE OF ICE NUCLEI, SO IF PRECIP IS PRESENT
LATE THIS EVENING OR EARLY SAT MORNING, EXPECT THAT IT WILL EITHER
BE RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPS. WILL COVER THE
POTENTIAL HAZARDS WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT/SPS/ FOR NOW
GIVEN HOW UNCERTAIN IT IS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WARM FRONT SHOULD BE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION BY SUNRISE LEADING TO
A DRY AND PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE REGION. MAV GUIDANCE EVEN SHOWS
SEVERAL LOCATIONS COULD REACH 60. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STILL BE
RELATIVELY TIGHT OVER THE REGION, SO BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...DESPITE A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT, ONE MORE WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE 50S ACROSS THE REGION (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
POCONOS AND NW NJ WHICH MAY STAY IN THE 40S). A WEAK SURFACE LOW
WILL PASS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION.
GFS APPEARS TO BE A DRY OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT ONLY DEPICTS
PRECIP OVER DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ. THUS HAVE FAVORED THE ECMWF/NAM
SOLUTIONS WITH PRECIP LIKELY FOR ALL OF THE REGION. LOOKS LIKE IT
SHOULD BE RAIN FOR MOST OF THE REGION, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
POCONOS AND NW NJ. HOWEVER, IF THE TRACK OF THIS LOW SHIFTS FURTHER
SE, THEN THE RAIN/SNOW LINE COULD SHIFT FURTHER SE AS WELL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY,
SLIDING TO THE EAST LATE MONDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR
MONDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES DOWN INTO OUR AREA.
THE NEXT BIG WEATHER MAKER IN THE FORECAST LOOKS TO ARRIVE SOMETIME
LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AND THEN EXIT THE AREA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISPARITY IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE WHICH STILL LEAD TO DIFFERING SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS TO THE
TRACK AND TIMING OF TWO LOWS MOVING UP FROM THE GULF COAST REGION.
THE ONE THING THAT THEY SEEM TO SHOW THOUGH IS THAT TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE ON THE WARMER SIDE WHICH WOULD LEND MORE CONFIDENCE TO A
MAJORITY RAIN EVENT, AND IN MANY AREAS IT COULD END UP BEING HEAVY
RAIN. SOME SNOW OR WINTRY MIX WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET OF
THE PRECIPITATION AND MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA,
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE TEMPERATURES MAY DROP
ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME MIXING TO OCCUR. PRECIPITATION COULD START
MOVING IN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS, AND
OVERSPREADING THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY,
ENDING FOR A PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE THE SECOND LOW ARRIVES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
IT IS CERTAINLY LOOKING LIKE THE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
TIME FRAME WILL BE FAIRLY UNSETTLED AND MANY DETAILS STILL NEED
TO BE WORKED OUT OVER THE COMING DAYS.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS THE AREA, WE SHOULD SEE HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY RIDGE NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10KT ARE EXPECTED, WITH HIGHER GUSTS
FROM TIME TO TIME...EVEN UP TO 20 KT.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN AT KABE
LATE TONIGHT (NEAR OR AFTER 06Z). THIS IS COVERED WITH AT TEMPO
GROUP, BUT IT APPEARS THE CHANCES ARE DECREASING FOR FROZEN
PRECIP AT ABE.
IN ADDITION, A LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD BE OVER THE REGION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WHICH COULD LEAD TO LLWS PRIMARILY FOR A FEW HOURS
ON EITHER SIDE OF 06Z.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS RAIN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY
TUESDAY. MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR, CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN RAIN BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH FURTHER DETERIORATION EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SNOW POSSIBLE NORTH AND WEST.
&&
.MARINE...
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST, A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN SECTIONS
TONIGHT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WIND
AND SEAS. THE SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS EVENING CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE
AREA WATERS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL RISE IN RESPONSE TO A COUPLE OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION. EXPECT SEAS TO EXCEED 5
FEET TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY AROUND 25 KNOTS BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAY NEAR 30 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE STARTING TO
SUBSIDE. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD BE
ON A DOWNWARD TREND HEADING TOWARDS THURSDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON/MEOLA
AVIATION...JOHNSON/MEOLA
MARINE...JOHNSON/MEOLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
812 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.UPDATE...
SURFACE RIDGE WAS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
HAVE QUICKLY FALLEN THIS EVENING ALONG THE EAST COAST UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOW
50S. THE 00Z SOUNDING THIS EVENING SHOWED MORE MOISTURE IN THE
LOW LEVELS UP TO ABOUT 5KFT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW A CLASSIC
DENSE FOG SOUNDING OVERNIGHT...WITH TOO MUCH DRY AIR JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE. THE HRRR IS NOT VERY BULLISH WITH FOG AND THE NEW
SREF PROBABILITIES FROM THE 21Z RUN HAVE DROPPED CONSIDERABLY WITH
FOG CHANCES. SO REMOVED DENSE FOG WORDING FROM THE GRIDS. PATCHY
FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE REGION
TONIGHT...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. PATCHY FOG
WITH MVFR VIS IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...CLEAR
SKIES ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 7 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
FEW 4.5KFT ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST. SEAS 4-6 FEET TONIGHT OFFSHORE WILL DIMINISH TO 4 FEET
OR LESS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS
AND SUBSIDING SEAS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS OVER THE WATERS WITH SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY EACH DAY. MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SW FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 47 75 51 76 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 46 67 50 69 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 45 75 52 76 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 50 70 52 72 / 10 0 0 0
GNV 47 75 50 75 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 50 76 51 77 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
KENNEDY/COMBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
403 PM EST THU FEB 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
20Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE. LOOKING FROM WEST TO EAST WE FIND A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH NOW ONSHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST...WITH
A STRONG UPPER JET SPREADING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS
STRONG JET FURTHER DOWNSTREAM BUILDS A LARGE RIDGE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS BEFORE DIVING BACK TO THE SOUTH INTO
LONGWAVE TROUGHING CONTINUING TO EXIT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
CLOSER TO HOME...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA RESIDES ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS DEPARTING LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE
AND SLOWLY BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT. THESE BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL
ENSURE OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
18/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SHOWED A VERY DRY COLUMN OVER OUR
HEADS WITH A DEFINED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOCATED AROUND 850MB.
FORECAST SOUNDING AND TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS SUGGEST THIS VERY DRY
AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY...AND LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING FOR LIFT...OUR SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.
AT THE SURFACE...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS UNDER CONTROL OF A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT EXPANDS ALL THE WAY SOUTH FROM A CENTER OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY/NE STATES. THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING THE REGION WITH A
GENERAL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PATTERN.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
FAIR...DRY...AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...
TONIGHT...AND INTO FRIDAY. THE DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN OVERNIGHT. BY SUNRISE LOOKING FOR
LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 40S FAR NORTH...TO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S
THROUGH THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AND MIDDLE 50S DOWN THROUGH FORT
MYERS. MIDDLE 50S WILL ALSO BE FOUND ACROSS SOUTHERN PINELLAS
COUNTY WITH THE FLOW OFF THE WATERS OF TAMPA BAY. TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL RISE QUICKLY AFTER THE COOL START...REACHING THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ALMOST REGION-WIDE UNDER MOSTLY/PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. ONLY SAY PARTLY SUNNY ABOVE AS WE MAY SEE A FEW-SCT
CUMULUS FIELD DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
UNDER 850MB ARRIVES ON THE EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON WE ARE LIKELY TO MIX PAST THIS MOISTURE
LEVEL...WHICH WILL DISSIPATE THIS CUMULUS FIELD.
...AND MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ZONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDING OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS SET-UP WILL LEND A NICE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 70S EACH AFTERNOON. FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL KEEP
EASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE BOTH DAYS. DRIER AIR WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF
THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOISTEN A BIT FOR
SUNDAY...BUT THAT WILL LIKELY ONLY LEAD TO A FEW MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY
THAN SATURDAY.
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AT THE
SURFACE...GLOBAL MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST REGION...BUT LOCATION AND TIMING CONTINUES TO CHANGE
FROM RUN TO RUN. THE FORECAST FOR NOW TO SHOW THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES TUESDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL SWING EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES QUICKLY NORTHEAST AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CLEARS OUR CWA
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAIN WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS SHIFTING FROM
NORTHEAST TODAY TO EASTERLY FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY FRIDAY...AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
FORECAST WATERS WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY RAMP BACK UP TO
CAUTIONARY LEVELS THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL THAT THE WINDS MAY REACH A PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS TONIGHT AS WELL. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN SUBSIDE DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY...AND THEN GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE CENTER MOVES CLOSER TO THE
REGION.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION KEEPING OUR
WEATHER FAIR...DRY...AND SEASONABLE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL BE ARRIVING
ON EASTERLY FLOW TO PREVENT CRITICAL LEVELS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY...
AND PREVENTING RED FLAG CONDITIONS FROM BEING ACHIEVED.
FOG POTENTIAL...
NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 52 73 56 75 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 55 75 55 76 / 0 0 10 0
GIF 52 73 53 75 / 0 0 10 0
SRQ 54 74 54 74 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 47 74 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 54 72 58 73 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...CARLISLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1020 AM EST THU FEB 18 2016
.UPDATE (TODAY-FRIDAY)... 15Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE. LOOKING FROM WEST TO EAST
WE FIND A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH ARRIVING ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST...WITH A STRONG UPPER JET SPREADING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. THIS STRONG JET FURTHER DOWNSTREAM BUILDS A LARGE RIDGE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS BEFORE DIVING BACK TO THE
SOUTH INTO LONGWAVE TROUGHING NOW EXITING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
CLOSER TO HOME...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA RESIDES ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS DEPARTING LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE
AND SLOWLY BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT. THESE BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL
ENSURE OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
18/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SHOWS A VERY DRY COLUMN OVER OUR HEADS
WITH A DEFINED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOCATED AROUND 850MB. WITH THE
VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE...AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING FOR
LIFT...OUR SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR THIS MORNING...WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE FOR ALL.
AT THE SURFACE...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS UNDER CONTROL OF A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT EXPANDS ALL THE WAY SOUTH FROM A CENTER OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY/NE STATES. THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING THE REGION WITH A
GENERAL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PATTERN.
THE FORECAST AREA IS SEEING A PLEASANT WINTER DAY UNDERWAY. WITH THE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND GOOD DIURNAL MIXING...TEMPERATURES ARE
RESPONDING AND QUICKLY RISING THROUGH THE 60S. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH MAXIMUM VALUES IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND
70 NORTH TO THE LOWER/MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
FAIR...DRY...AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THE DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
COOL DOWN OVERNIGHT. BY SUNRISE LOOKING FOR LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID
40S FAR NORTH...TO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S THROUGH THE I-4
CORRIDOR...AND MIDDLE 50S DOWN THROUGH FORT MYERS...AND ALSO
SOUTHERN PINELLAS COUNTY. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RESPOND
QUICKLY ONCE AGAIN AFTER THE COOL START...REACHING THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S ALMOST REGION-WIDE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
...AND MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
SHIFTING FROM NORTHEAST TODAY TO EASTERLY FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST TOWARD TEH CAROLINAS BY FRIDAY...AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
FORECAST WATERS WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL DROP BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS TODAY...BUT
QUICKLY RAMP BACK UP TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS THIS EVENING AND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT THE WINDS MAY REACH A
PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS TONIGHT AS WELL. WINDS WILL ONCE
AGAIN SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AND THEN GENERALLY REMAIN
BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE CENTER
MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 72 53 74 55 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 76 55 76 55 / 0 0 10 10
GIF 72 52 74 53 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 75 53 75 54 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 72 47 75 47 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 71 57 72 57 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
254 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
Southeast winds gusting over 30 mph at times this afternoon, helping
to boost temperatures well into the 40s. Have seen some 50 degree
readings west of Springfield early this afternoon and 60s are fairly
widespread across central and western Missouri.
Not looking for much of a drop off in temperatures tonight, with
steady or rising temperatures from about 9 pm onward. Low level jet
really ramps up during the evening, with the RAP mode forecasting
2000 foot winds of 60-65 knots this evening and around 70 knots
after midnight over the southeast third of the forecast area. This
will help keep the wind gusts up and will go with gusts 30-35 mph in
most areas north of I-70. Stream of mid/high clouds will continue to
affect primarily the northern half of the forecast area tonight,
with some increase over the remainder of the area late tonight as
the cold front approaches.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
High pressure to the east, combined with a low pressure area to the
northeast will tighten the gradient considerably, and along with the
very warm air, will bring much stronger winds into the region than
this afternoon. Southwest winds in the morning are expected to
increase with sustained winds between 25 and 30 mph, with gusts of
near 40mph. These strong winds will continue into the afternoon, but
begin to taper off late afternoon after the dry trough moves through
and winds switch to more west-southwest. However, will keep the
advisory going through 00z tomorrow. Wind Advisory will be for the
whole area as well. Once this trough comes through Friday, zonal
flow will control the area through the weekend.
Another low pressure area will develop in the south and move toward
the area for the weekend. Models differ on how far north the low
pressure area gets, with the ECMWF furthest north. GFS and NAM are
furthest south and therefore much drier over the CWA. However, going
forecast for now is pcpn across the CWA Sat night and then just in
the southeast for Sunday. With model uncertainty still, will keep
forecast as is for now...which does include likely pops in the
southeast Sat night.
Temps will start out very warm tomorrow and should continue into Sat
ahead of the pcpn. Then temps cool as clouds and pcpn move through
the area Sunday. Temps next three days will be very above normal.
Extended period looks to be very dry as flow remains somewhat zonal
through the middle of next week. Extended models have some
disagreement on chances of pcpn Wed night and Thur, but best to keep
things dry for now until models work things out. Temps will be
cooler than this weekend, but still be slightly above normal. Temps
will be warmer early in the extended, then decrease some toward the
end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
Main concern will be with the gusty winds over the next 24 hours.
Already seeing gusts over 25 knots from about KPIA-KSPI westward,
and the gusty winds will spread to KCMI this afternoon. Have
maintained the mention of LLWS tonight, as the RAP model continues
to show a low level jet of 60-70 knots at 2000 feet spreading into
the area. Main cold front is expected to reach western Illinois by
late Friday morning, with some of this jet mixing down to provide
south-southwest wind gusts of 30-35 knots. Currently appears the
front should be dry, but some ceilings may approach MVFR levels
near KPIA/KBMI Friday morning.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Friday for ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1137 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
Winds starting to pick up, with gusts 20-25 mph across the west
half of the forecast area. This has helped temperatures rise a bit
ahead of the curve, so have done some tweaks of the hourly trends
into the afternoon. No substantial changes to the highs were made,
with filtered sunshine allowing temperatures to reach the 50s
across at least the southwest half of the forecast area.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
Sprawling ridge of high pressure extending from the eastern Great
Lakes to the Gulf States will shift eastward toward the East Coast
later today. Meanwhile, a trough of low pressure will sharpen in
the lee of the Rockies. The pressure gradient between these two
features will tighten as the day progresses, leading to strong/gusty
winds across central Illinois. Forecast soundings indicate
sustained southeasterly winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to around
35 mph by mid to late afternoon. Skies will remain partly to mostly
cloudy as a warm front develops across Nebraska into Missouri. Due
to the cloud cover and a distinct easterly component to the wind,
have not gone quite as warm as some of the numeric guidance would
suggest. Have therefore kept afternoon high temperatures in the
middle to upper 40s...with a few lower 50s across the far SW KILX
CWA.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
As a warm front lifts slowly northward through the area tonight,
winds will gradually become southerly. Strong winds gusting to
between 30 and 35 mph will continue, helping temperatures steadily
rise through the night. Readings will start out in the 40s during
the early evening, then will climb into the lower 50s by dawn
Friday. NAM continues to show a very strong 70-80mph 925mb jet
streak developing from the Ozarks northeastward into Indiana by 12z
Fri. Once the sun rises, some of this high momentum air will mix to
the surface, creating wind gusts in the 45 to 50 mph range
along/east of the I-57 corridor. Further west, gusts to between 40
and 45 mph will be common. As a result, a Wind Advisory will likely
be needed Friday morning over much of the area, but particularly the
E/SE CWA. The winds will gradually decrease by Friday afternoon
after a weak cold front sweeps through the region.
The front will settle southward into the Ohio River Valley where it
will become parallel to the upper flow and stall during the day
Saturday. As has been advertised for the past few days, an upper
wave will eject eastward through the Plains, interacting with the
boundary to produce a period of rain Saturday night into Sunday
morning. 00z Feb 18 models have come into relatively good agreement
concerning the strength and timing of the associated low, with the
NAM/GFS/GEM all taking it across southern Illinois late Saturday
night. Meanwhile, the ECMWF features a further north track
along/north of the I-70 corridor. This represents a shift from its
previous runs, so have tossed it out in favor of the model
consensus. Bottom line will mean rain showers developing everywhere
Saturday night, with the highest PoPs concentrated south of the I-72
corridor. GFS forecast soundings show modest elevated instability
developing across the southern CWA, with MUCAPE values of around 200
J/kg. Have therefore added isolated thunderstorms to the forecast
along/south of a Paris to Taylorville line.
Once the low pushes into Indiana, any lingering showers will come to
an end from west to east across the area on Sunday. Mild
temperatures in the 50s will persist. After that, several waves
will drop southward out of Canada, gradually carving a long-wave
trough across the eastern CONUS next week. End result will be
slowly falling temps each day, with readings dropping back to
near normal in the lower to middle 40s Monday through Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
Main concern will be with the gusty winds over the next 24 hours.
Already seeing gusts over 25 knots from about KPIA-KSPI westward,
and the gusty winds will spread to KCMI this afternoon. Have
maintained the mention of LLWS tonight, as the RAP model continues
to show a low level jet of 60-70 knots at 2000 feet spreading into
the area. Main cold front is expected to reach western Illinois by
late Friday morning, with some of this jet mixing down to provide
south-southwest wind gusts of 30-35 knots. Currently appears the
front should be dry, but some ceilings may approach MVFR levels
near KPIA/KBMI Friday morning.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
242 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
...Updated Short term, Long term, and Fire weather discussions...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
A cold front will move into southwest Kansas overnight as an
upper level disturbance crosses the Northern Plains. This surface
boundary will briefly stall out in southwest Kansas on Friday as a
subtle upper level disturbance moves into the four corners region
by late day. Models are in good agreement with some cooler air
returning to western Kansas on Friday with the 850mb temperatures
from the GFS and NAM indicating around a 10C drop from 00z Friday
to 00z Saturday. Based on this and some high clouds during the
afternoon the previous forecast still looks on track with highs
ranging from the mid 60s in north central Kansas to around 70
along the Oklahoma border.
.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
The next in a series of upper level troughs will be crossing the
plains over the weekend period. As this next upper level system
passes...another cold front will cross southwest Kansas early
Sunday. This weekend cold front will allow for some cooler, more
seasonal, air to return to western Kansas as the surface boundary
moves into northern Texas. Based on the cooling that is forecast
to occur Saturday night and Sunday from the GFS and ECMWF it
currently appears that highs will fall from the upper 60s to lower
70s on Saturday to the mid to upper 50s on Sunday.
Another upper level disturbance will approach western Kansas
early next week. As this next upper level system approaches
southwest Kansas late Monday into Tuesday there will be improving
lift developing across southwest Kansas based on the location of
the upper level jet and 850mb warm air advection. This will give
rise to increasing clouds which will keep temperatures on the cool
side Monday and Tuesday. There may even be a chance for some light
precipitation across portions of western and north central Kansas.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Friday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
RAP and NAM mean mixed layer winds this afternoon continue to
indicated gusty southwest winds continue at around 25 knots
through at least 21z Thursday. These winds will then fall back to
around 20 knots by 00z Friday and then fall back to into the 10 to
15 knot range after 06z Friday. The southwest winds will also be
gradually veering to the northwest after midnight as a weak
surface cold front crosses western Kansas. VFR conditions are
expected over the next 24 hours based on NAM BUFR soundings along
with the RAP and HRRR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
For this evening...the strong southwest winds will begin to
gradually subside towards sunset. Wind speeds should begin to
fall back into the 15 to 20 knots by 8pm. Along with the
decreasing winds the relative humidity values will begin to rise
as temperatures fall. At this time the relative humidity values
will still be around 15 percent through 9 pm in some locations
west of highway 283, however given the decreasing winds will not
extend the Red Flag Warning past 8 pm at this time.
Friday the afternoon relative humidity values will once again
fall into the teens with the lower relative humidity values being
located west of highway 283. Wind speeds however Friday afternoon
will not be strong enough to support issuing a red flag warning,
however elevated fire weather conditions are expected and out door
burning on Friday is not recommended.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 46 69 38 69 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 42 68 35 69 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 45 71 40 71 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 44 70 36 71 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 47 68 36 67 / 0 0 0 0
P28 53 71 43 71 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ this evening for
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert
FIRE WEATHER...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1128 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
High clouds on water vapor imagery were noted lifting over the
upper ridge building into the western high plains this morning. A
broad and strong upper trough entering the Pac NW was streaming
steady moisture off the southern CA coast towards the southwest
Conus. Sfc Observations showed the developing lee trough across
eastern CO inducing southerly winds to increase between 10 and 15
mph. Low level moisture across southern TX was quickly advecting
northward with a strong 50+ kt low level jet ongoing and
anticipated to increase after sunrise.
This low level moisture advection is a major factor as to how low RH
readings fall during the late afternoon as a stout dryline mixes
eastward across KS. Fire weather details follow below on the current
thinking. Forecast was based on a combination of the RAP and HRRR
(previous and current runs) with the low 40 degree dewpoints and
highs in the lower 70s for east central/north central areas. North
central KS may be able to mix out to the upper 70s as forecast
soundings are consistent in the warm inversion layer reaching the
sfc in addition to the drier air. Wind speeds are also of concern
with speeds expected to increase shortly after sunrise between 25
and 35 mph sustained with gusts between 40 and 50 mph possible. For
this reason, have expanded the wind advisory for areas generally
along and south of Interstate 70.
For tonight, winds are expected to stay up between 15 and 25 mph
sustained as they veer to the west with the upper trough crossing
over Nebraska. High clouds increase while temps stay mild in the
lower 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 323 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
A quasi zonal pattern sets up for Friday and through the weekend
with the bulk of energy passing to the north of the forecast area.
Models continue to show low level moisture advection into east
central KS for Saturday and Saturday night as a subtle piece of
energy passes across the state. Both the NAM and GFS suggest there
will be little to no instability however and model progs of 850
winds remain rather light for this time of year. Nevertheless
there has been a persistent signal from the models for the
possibility for showers and thunderstorms so have maintained a
small chance POP for Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening. By
Sunday morning, a cold front is expected to push south of the
forecast area with dry air moving in. This should bring and end to
the precip changes as well as cooler temps for Sunday. Temps for
Friday and Saturday should remain well above normal. Forecast
soundings show the boundary layer mixing fairly deeply on Friday
but also bring in some cooler temps at 850 MB such that adiabatic
mixing would only support highs in the mid and upper 60s. Because
of this have shaved a degree or two off the highs from the prev
forecast. The airmass stays pretty similar for Saturday. The one
wild car is possible low clouds moving into eastern KS and
limiting insolation. For now have continued with highs in the mid
and upper 60s for Saturday.
For next week, the models are suggesting the pattern becomes more
amplified with a return to northwest flow for the central plains.
However there are differences in how the pattern sets up and where
week waves within the flow move. Its plausible that there could be
some light precip with these passing waves, similar to what we
experienced earlier this week. However low confidence in the small
scale features preclude a mention of precip chances at this time.
With the return of northwest flow, models bring the occasional
ridge of high pressure through the plains. This is expected to
keep temps cooler with highs in the 50s and lows around freezing
next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1104 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds will remain
strong through evening with sustained winds near 20-25 knots and
gusts 35-40+ knots. Winds will decrease to 15-20 with gusts 25-30
knots. LLWS is anticipated overnight as LLJ will increase to near
70 knots. However, if BL continues to mix overnight, gusts may
approach 40 knots. Winds will also veer to WNW overnight as a
cold front moves across the area.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 323 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
High resolution guidance is still struggling on dewpoints during the
afternoon as it appears to still overestimate the amount of moisture
advection from the southwest while underestimating the depth of
vertical mixing in regards to the drier air aloft. Forecast was
collaborated to side closer to the RAP and HRRR solutions which
represent an even compromise of RH values falling to the low and
middle 30 percent range for most of the area. Most uncertain area is
across north central Kansas where stronger mixing aloft and from the
dryline may help realize RH values dropping sharply towards the
upper teen to lower 20 percent range during the late afternoon.
Regardless of the RH values being borderline, winds sustained at 25
to 35 mph with gusts in upwards of 45 to 50 mph will easily promote
uncontrolled fire growth given the critical fuels reported.
Therefore have upgraded the watch to a Red Flag Warning in effect at
11 AM until 6 PM this evening for the entire area. Uncertainty
increases for this evening as RH values rise. Winds remain strong
however so any fire that forms during the afternoon will remain
uncontrollable overnight. Have maintained the watch overnight for
the next shift to review.
For Friday, dry air is still expected to overspread the forecast
area with min RH values falling to around 20 percent during the
afternoon. However models show the pressure gradient relaxing
pretty quickly in the morning Friday and wind speeds are forecast
to be quite a bit lighter. There remains the possibility to see
some gusts around 20 MPH especially across northern KS where the
gradient will be slower to relax. But the overall trend in the
models has been for weaker winds. Will keep the fire weather watch
in tact for now because of the dry air, but there is a real
possibility that conditions will not make it to red flag on
Friday.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
Fire Weather Watch from 7 PM CST this evening through Friday
afternoon for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for KSZ021>024-026-
034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Baerg
FIRE WEATHER...Bowen/Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1122 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
...Updated Synopsis and Aviation discussion...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
At 12z Thursday a 500mb trough was located along the coast of the
Pacific Northwest and an upper level ridge axis extended from
Texas to North Dakota. 700mb temperatures ranged from +6 at Rapid
City to +9 at Amarillo. The 850mb temperature at 12z Thursday at
Dodge City was 21C with a southwest wind at 50knots. At the
surface a dryline extended from northwest Kansas to the Texas
Panhandle.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
Heat in February?! Yes. The atmosphere recognizes no calendar. Break
out the shorts and flip flops and turn on that AC because it is going
to be very hot today. Records will likely be annihilated. See the section
below for values. The main concern today was temperatures. Most of the
temperature grid looked on track, however, some of the models aren`t
mixing out the eastern zones, which may explain the lower values. Feel
this might not be that accurate as there is a tremendous amount of synoptic
southwesterly momentum. The models are overdoing boundary layer moisture
as well. Early morning observations across OK/TX show this is a poor
initialization. Bottom line, 80s for everyone. Another HUGE concern
is fire weather. See the section below for more details.
.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
The heat won`t last too long. A cold front will move across the region
with much cooler 850-hPa temperatures in its wake. The atmosphere will
be fairly dry, so think it will warm up quickly with upper 60s north
to lower 70s south for Friday. Downslope flow continues with pleasant
temperatures again for Saturday. By Sunday, cold air advection will
set in and put temperatures back closer to normal - 50s with a few 60F
readings near the OK border. Monday and Tuesday look to be fairly seasonal
with highs in the lower 50s. The models shows a wave moving through
on Tuesday, which may bring light precipitation to the western forecast
area. There isn`t good moisture advection with this system so the lower
end superblend pops look fine for now. Beyond that, we go into a dry
pattern with northwest flow aloft and a drier boundary layer.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Friday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
RAP and NAM mean mixed layer winds this afternoon continue to
indicated gusty southwest winds continue at around 25 knots
through at least 21z Thursday. These winds will then fall back to
around 20 knots by 00z Friday and then fall back to into the 10 to
15 knot range after 06z Friday. The southwest winds will also be
gradually veering to the northwest after midnight as a weak
surface cold front crosses western Kansas. VFR conditions are
expected over the next 24 hours based on NAM BUFR soundings along
with the RAP and HRRR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
** A very volatile fire weather day. Outdoor burning should not be
attempted at all as environmental conditions are favorable for explosive
fire growth. **
For the meteorology, the main concern was for today is dewpoints and
winds. Observations as well as BOIVerify shows a clear high bias in
dewpoints in the NWP fields. Examining forecast skew-t/log-p`s shows
what appears to be an unrealistic moisture advection signal in the boundary
layer. Current early morning observations show that the model dewpoints
are off, particularly in some of the mesoscale models like the NAM.
Have decided to expand the RFW for the entire county warning forecast
area. The WFO neighbor to the east uses a different threshold for RFW
criteria than we do (GFDI versus RH`s) and that explained the previous
gap. The RH`s will be a bit more marginal across south-central Kansas,
but felt it was better to fill in the gap rather than have a split due
to different WFO hazard warning thresholds. Also question the mixing
in some of the models, which does not mix out the eastern CWA. This
seems more unrealistic than not as there is tremendous amount of southwesterly
momentum and mixing with the synoptic wave. Pattern recognition clearly
suggests a late Winter/weak dryline event. Added a buffer to the end
of the warning as well, as hazard conditions may still exist longer
than previously thought. Bottom line, do not burn today. The fire will
become quickly out of control.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
Record highs will likely be smashed today.
Location...Forecast high...Record...Record year.
Dodge City...84...77...1986
Garden City...85...81...1986
Liberal...86...83...1983
Pratt...82...82...1981
Syracuse...85...79...1986
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 85 45 69 36 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 86 41 68 33 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 85 44 71 38 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 85 44 70 35 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 87 45 67 34 / 0 0 0 0
P28 81 51 71 40 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ this evening for
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burgert
FIRE WEATHER...Sugden
CLIMATE...Sugden
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1017 AM MST THU FEB 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MST THU FEB 18 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US...WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW OFF THE
PACIFIC NW COAST. 130-145 KT 300MB JET WAS OBSERVED OVER
CALIFORNIA ON 00Z RAOBS AND ON WV THIS CAN BE SEE AS STRONG AREA
OF CLEARING NOSING INTO DIFFLUENT REGION BETWEEN RIDING AND UPPER
LOW. DEEP SW FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH
PLUME OF THICK HIGH CLOUD COVER STREAMING INTO THE PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH DRY
LINE APPROXIMATELY FROM LAMAR COLORADO SOUTH.
FOCUS ON THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS ON FIRE WEATHER TODAY AND A
POSSIBLE HIGH WIND EVENT TONIGHT. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
REGARDING UPDATES ON RFW.
TODAY...VERY WARM AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITH DEEP SW
FLOW ALOFT AND WAA ALONG/EAST OF SURFACE LOW. CIRRUS IS ALREADY
CONSIDERABLY MORE EXTENSIVE IN COVERAGE THAN MODELS WOULD INDICATE
AND SATELLITE TRENDS GENERALLY SUPPORT THIS TREND CONTINUING. THIS
COMPLICATES OUR HIGH TEMP FORECAST AND POTENTIAL MIXING HEIGHTS
FOR WIND/TDS. WITH SURFACE LOW SHIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHERN HALF
OF OUR CWA AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
STRONGEST SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. BETTER
MIXING WOULD STILL ALLOW FOR GUSTS IN THE 40-45 MPH RANGE
TODAY...HOWEVER DUE TO THE CIRRUS THESE STRONGER GUSTS MAY NOT BE
REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON. I LEANED TOWARD THE "COOLER" END OF
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...WHICH STILL SUPPORTS DAILY RECORDS AT MOST
LOCATIONS (UPPER 70S/NEAR 80). IF WE CAN SEE GOOD BREAKS AND LESS
OPAQUE CLOUD COVER WE MAY BE LOOKING AT MONTHLY RECORDS.
TONIGHT...UPPER LOW MOVES FROM PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH NEGATIVELY TILTED OPEN WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA
TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA
AROUND 06Z. MODELS SHOW A VERY STRONG LLJ DEVELOPING OVER OUR CWA
WITH H85 WINDS 60KT OR HIGHER. GFS IS THE STRONGEST ON BL
WINDS...AND MAY BE RUNNING HIGH AS THE STRONG FRONTAL INVERSION
(AIDED BY RADIATIONAL COOLING) COULD LIMIT MIXING. 3HR PRESSURE
RISES 8-10 MB BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL SUPPORT WINDY CONDITIONS...I
AM JUST NOT AS CONFIDENT THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT WILL
MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE. LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH WILL BE AIDED BY
STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND TROUGH AXIS (HIGHLIGHTED BY STRONG PV
ANOMALY ON DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE FIELD). THIS TYPE OF PATTERN TENDS
TO BE SHORT LIVED IN NATURE WITH STRONGEST GUSTS OVER SHORTER TIME
SPANS. I INCREASED WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA
TO INCLUDE GUSTS 50-55 MPH TONIGHT...BUT DECIDED AGAINST HIGH WIND
WATCH ISSUANCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NIGHTTIME MIXING OVER
OUR CWA.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THESE
PERIOD WITH DEEP DRY AIR AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SHOULD BE 10
TO 15 DEGREES COOLER AFTER THE FROPA TONIGHT...HOWEVER THEY WILL
STILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS OUR CWA (15-20F ABOVE NORMAL).
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 AM MST THU FEB 18 2016
UPPER FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE
OF TROUGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY. A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO MONDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY.
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW TO THE FA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT
SUPPORT AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. OTHERWISE ALL OTHER PERIODS
WILL BE DRY.
MAX TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER 50S WITH SOME MID TO UPPER 40S TUESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MST THU FEB 18 2016
AT KGLD...GUST SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. PEAK GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST. BRIEF WIND GUSTS OVER
40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT...DIMINISHING BY MORNING.
AT KMCK...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A FRONT THEN
INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT BY LATE EVENING. BRIEF WIND GUSTS OVER
40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT...DIMINISHING BY MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 322 AM MST THU FEB 18 2016
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN LINE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA. THERE IS LESS
CERTAINTY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AS A RESULT OF HIGH CLOUD COVER
POTENTIALLY LIMITING MIXING WHICH IMPACTS RH AND WINDS. LOWER
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ADVERTISED BY MOST GUIDANCE IN OUR NORTH AS
A RESULT OF A SHIFT IN SURFACE LOW POSITION ALSO LOWERS
CONFIDENCE IN MEETING A 3HR DURATION OF WINDS IN OUR NORTHERN CWA.
I WAS COMFORTABLE KEEPING CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING IN PLACE AND
ADDING THOMAS AND SHERIDAN TO RFW AS THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MEET THE 3HR CROSSOVER OF WIND/RH EVEN IF WINDS ARE NOT
QUITE AS STRONG. I DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
YUMA (CO)...CHEYENNE (KS)...AND RAWLINS (KS) AS CONFIDENCE IS MUCH
LOWER AND WE ARE TOO CLOSE TO THE EVENT TO HANG ONTO THE WATCH ANY
LONGER. HAVING SAID THIS...IF CLOUD COVER ENDS UP BEING MUCH LESS
THIS AFTERNOON AND FULL MIXING IS ACHIEVED THE RFW MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED NORTH. THIS SITUATION NEEDS TO BE MONITORED.
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
CO/KS BORDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS LEE TROUGH BEGINS TO REDEVELOP
AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN REACHING THE 3HR
REQUIREMENT FOR FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 322 AM MST THU FEB 18 2016
RECORDS AND CURRENT FORECAST FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.
SITE.............DAILY RECORD...CURRENT FORECAST
GOODLAND, KS.........74...............78
MCCOOK, NE...........82...............75
BURLINGTON,CO........74...............78
HILL CITY,KS.........75...............82
COLBY, KS............81...............79
TRIBUNE, KS..........79...............82
YUMA, CO.............73...............74
CURRENT FEBRUARY MONTHLY HIGH TEMP RECORDS...
GOODLAND.....81 (02-28-2006 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
MCCOOK.......83 (02-23-1933 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
BURLINGTON...82 (02-11-1962)
HILL CITY....86 (02-28-2006 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
COLBY........83 (02-12-1911)
TRIBUNE......81 (02-20-1981)
YUMA.........79 (02-12-1962 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KSZ013>015-027>029-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ253-254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...024
FIRE WEATHER...DR
CLIMATE...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
427 AM MST THU FEB 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MST THU FEB 18 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US...WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW OFF THE
PACIFIC NW COAST. 130-145 KT 300MB JET WAS OBSERVED OVER
CALIFORNIA ON 00Z RAOBS AND ON WV THIS CAN BE SEE AS STRONG AREA
OF CLEARING NOSING INTO DIFFLUENT REGION BETWEEN RIDING AND UPPER
LOW. DEEP SW FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH
PLUME OF THICK HIGH CLOUD COVER STREAMING INTO THE PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH DRY
LINE APPROXIMATELY FROM LAMAR COLORADO SOUTH.
FOCUS ON THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS ON FIRE WEATHER TODAY AND A
POSSIBLE HIGH WIND EVENT TONIGHT. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
REGARDING UPDATES ON RFW.
TODAY...VERY WARM AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITH DEEP SW
FLOW ALOFT AND WAA ALONG/EAST OF SURFACE LOW. CIRRUS IS ALREADY
CONSIDERABLY MORE EXTENSIVE IN COVERAGE THAN MODELS WOULD INDICATE
AND SATELLITE TRENDS GENERALLY SUPPORT THIS TREND CONTINUING. THIS
COMPLICATES OUR HIGH TEMP FORECAST AND POTENTIAL MIXING HEIGHTS
FOR WIND/TDS. WITH SURFACE LOW SHIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHERN HALF
OF OUR CWA AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
STRONGEST SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. BETTER
MIXING WOULD STILL ALLOW FOR GUSTS IN THE 40-45 MPH RANGE
TODAY...HOWEVER DUE TO THE CIRRUS THESE STRONGER GUSTS MAY NOT BE
REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON. I LEANED TOWARD THE "COOLER" END OF
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...WHICH STILL SUPPORTS DAILY RECORDS AT MOST
LOCATIONS (UPPER 70S/NEAR 80). IF WE CAN SEE GOOD BREAKS AND LESS
OPAQUE CLOUD COVER WE MAY BE LOOKING AT MONTHLY RECORDS.
TONIGHT...UPPER LOW MOVES FROM PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH NEGATIVELY TILTED OPEN WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA
TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA
AROUND 06Z. MODELS SHOW A VERY STRONG LLJ DEVELOPING OVER OUR CWA
WITH H85 WINDS 60KT OR HIGHER. GFS IS THE STRONGEST ON BL
WINDS...AND MAY BE RUNNING HIGH AS THE STRONG FRONTAL INVERSION
(AIDED BY RADIATIONAL COOLING) COULD LIMIT MIXING. 3HR PRESSURE
RISES 8-10 MB BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL SUPPORT WINDY CONDITIONS...I
AM JUST NOT AS CONFIDENT THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT WILL
MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE. LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH WILL BE AIDED BY
STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND TROUGH AXIS (HIGHLIGHTED BY STRONG PV
ANOMALY ON DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE FIELD). THIS TYPE OF PATTERN TENDS
TO BE SHORT LIVED IN NATURE WITH STRONGEST GUSTS OVER SHORTER TIME
SPANS. I INCREASED WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA
TO INCLUDE GUSTS 50-55 MPH TONIGHT...BUT DECIDED AGAINST HIGH WIND
WATCH ISSUANCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NIGHTTIME MIXING OVER
OUR CWA.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THESE
PERIOD WITH DEEP DRY AIR AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SHOULD BE 10
TO 15 DEGREES COOLER AFTER THE FROPA TONIGHT...HOWEVER THEY WILL
STILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS OUR CWA (15-20F ABOVE NORMAL).
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 AM MST THU FEB 18 2016
UPPER FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE
OF TROUGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY. A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO MONDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY.
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW TO THE FA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT
SUPPORT AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. OTHERWISE ALL OTHER PERIODS
WILL BE DRY.
MAX TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER 50S WITH SOME MID TO UPPER 40S TUESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST THU FEB 18 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS
SHOULD DEVELOP BY MIDDAY...WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTING 30-35KT
AT KGLD (LIGHTER AT KMCK WHERE GRADIENT IS WEAKER). A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE WEST. STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS 38-45KT
EXPECTED (STRONGEST AT KMCK). STRONGER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND DURATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A VERY STRONG LLJ...LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KMCK LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 322 AM MST THU FEB 18 2016
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN LINE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA. THERE IS LESS
CERTAINTY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AS A RESULT OF HIGH CLOUD COVER
POTENTIALLY LIMITING MIXING WHICH IMPACTS RH AND WINDS. LOWER
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ADVERTISED BY MOST GUIDANCE IN OUR NORTH AS
A RESULT OF A SHIFT IN SURFACE LOW POSITION ALSO LOWERS
CONFIDENCE IN MEETING A 3HR DURATION OF WINDS IN OUR NORTHERN CWA.
I WAS COMFORTABLE KEEPING CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING IN PLACE AND
ADDING THOMAS AND SHERIDAN TO RFW AS THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MEET THE 3HR CROSSOVER OF WIND/RH EVEN IF WINDS ARE NOT
QUITE AS STRONG. I DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
YUMA (CO)...CHEYENNE (KS)...AND RAWLINS (KS) AS CONFIDENCE IS MUCH
LOWER AND WE ARE TOO CLOSE TO THE EVENT TO HANG ONTO THE WATCH ANY
LONGER. HAVING SAID THIS...IF CLOUD COVER ENDS UP BEING MUCH LESS
THIS AFTERNOON AND FULL MIXING IS ACHIEVED THE RFW MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED NORTH. THIS SITUATION NEEDS TO BE MONITORED.
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
CO/KS BORDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS LEE TROUGH BEGINS TO REDEVELOP
AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN REACHING THE 3HR
REQUIREMENT FOR FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 322 AM MST THU FEB 18 2016
RECORDS AND CURRENT FORECAST FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.
SITE.............DAILY RECORD...CURRENT FORECAST
GOODLAND, KS.........74...............78
MCCOOK, NE...........82...............75
BURLINGTON,CO........74...............78
HILL CITY,KS.........75...............82
COLBY, KS............81...............79
TRIBUNE, KS..........79...............82
YUMA, CO.............73...............74
CURRENT FEBRUARY MONTHLY HIGH TEMP RECORDS...
GOODLAND.....81 (02-28-2006 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
MCCOOK.......83 (02-23-1933 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
BURLINGTON...82 (02-11-1962)
HILL CITY....86 (02-28-2006 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
COLBY........83 (02-12-1911)
TRIBUNE......81 (02-20-1981)
YUMA.........79 (02-12-1962 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING TO 5 PM
MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ013>015-027>029-041-
042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR COZ253-254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...DR
CLIMATE...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
511 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
High clouds on water vapor imagery were noted lifting over the
upper ridge building into the western high plains this morning. A
broad and strong upper trough entering the Pac NW was streaming
steady moisture off the southern CA coast towards the southwest
Conus. Sfc Observations showed the developing lee trough across
eastern CO inducing southerly winds to increase between 10 and 15
mph. Low level moisture across southern TX was quickly advecting
northward with a strong 50+ kt low level jet ongoing and
anticipated to increase after sunrise.
This low level moisture advection is a major factor as to how low RH
readings fall during the late afternoon as a stout dryline mixes
eastward across KS. Fire weather details follow below on the current
thinking. Forecast was based on a combination of the RAP and HRRR
(previous and current runs) with the low 40 degree dewpoints and
highs in the lower 70s for east central/north central areas. North
central KS may be able to mix out to the upper 70s as forecast
soundings are consistent in the warm inversion layer reaching the
sfc in addition to the drier air. Wind speeds are also of concern
with speeds expected to increase shortly after sunrise between 25
and 35 mph sustained with gusts between 40 and 50 mph possible. For
this reason, have expanded the wind advisory for areas generally
along and south of Interstate 70.
For tonight, winds are expected to stay up between 15 and 25 mph
sustained as they veer to the west with the upper trough crossing
over Nebraska. High clouds increase while temps stay mild in the
lower 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 323 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
A quasi zonal pattern sets up for Friday and through the weekend
with the bulk of energy passing to the north of the forecast area.
Models continue to show low level moisture advection into east
central KS for Saturday and Saturday night as a subtle piece of
energy passes across the state. Both the NAM and GFS suggest there
will be little to no instability however and model progs of 850
winds remain rather light for this time of year. Nevertheless
there has been a persistent signal from the models for the
possibility for showers and thunderstorms so have maintained a
small chance POP for Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening. By
Sunday morning, a cold front is expected to push south of the
forecast area with dry air moving in. This should bring and end to
the precip changes as well as cooler temps for Sunday. Temps for
Friday and Saturday should remain well above normal. Forecast
soundings show the boundary layer mixing fairly deeply on Friday
but also bring in some cooler temps at 850 MB such that adiabatic
mixing would only support highs in the mid and upper 60s. Because
of this have shaved a degree or two off the highs from the prev
forecast. The airmass stays pretty similar for Saturday. The one
wild car is possible low clouds moving into eastern KS and
limiting insolation. For now have continued with highs in the mid
and upper 60s for Saturday.
For next week, the models are suggesting the pattern becomes more
amplified with a return to northwest flow for the central plains.
However there are differences in how the pattern sets up and where
week waves within the flow move. Its plausible that there could be
some light precip with these passing waves, similar to what we
experienced earlier this week. However low confidence in the small
scale features preclude a mention of precip chances at this time.
With the return of northwest flow, models bring the occasional
ridge of high pressure through the plains. This is expected to
keep temps cooler with highs in the 50s and lows around freezing
next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 508 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
VFR prevails through period with main concern being strong
southerly winds. Profiler winds throughout Kansas depict strong
low level wind shear above 1500 feet from the south continuing
through 14Z. Thereafter, south sfc winds increase to above 20 kts
sustained with gusts in upwards of 35 kts. The strong winds
gradually veer to the southwest overnight as the system passes
through.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 323 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
High resolution guidance is still struggling on dewpoints during the
afternoon as it appears to still overestimate the amount of moisture
advection from the southwest while underestimating the depth of
vertical mixing in regards to the drier air aloft. Forecast was
collaborated to side closer to the RAP and HRRR solutions which
represent an even compromise of RH values falling to the low and
middle 30 percent range for most of the area. Most uncertain area is
across north central Kansas where stronger mixing aloft and from the
dryline may help realize RH values dropping sharply towards the
upper teen to lower 20 percent range during the late afternoon.
Regardless of the RH values being borderline, winds sustained at 25
to 35 mph with gusts in upwards of 45 to 50 mph will easily promote
uncontrolled fire growth given the critical fuels reported.
Therefore have upgraded the watch to a Red Flag Warning in effect at
11 AM until 6 PM this evening for the entire area. Uncertainty
increases for this evening as RH values rise. Winds remain strong
however so any fire that forms during the afternoon will remain
uncontrollable overnight. Have maintained the watch overnight for
the next shift to review.
For Friday, dry air is still expected to overspread the forecast
area with min RH values falling to around 20 percent during the
afternoon. However models show the pressure gradient relaxing
pretty quickly in the morning Friday and wind speeds are forecast
to be quite a bit lighter. There remains the possibility to see
some gusts around 20 MPH especially across northern KS where the
gradient will be slower to relax. But the overall trend in the
models has been for weaker winds. Will keep the fire weather watch
in tact for now because of the dry air, but there is a real
possibility that conditions will not make it to red flag on
Friday.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CST this
evening for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
Fire Weather Watch from this evening through Friday afternoon
for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CST this evening
for KSZ021>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Bowen
FIRE WEATHER...Bowen/Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
322 AM MST THU FEB 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MST THU FEB 18 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US...WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW OFF THE
PACIFIC NW COAST. 130-145 KT 300MB JET WAS OBSERVED OVER
CALIFORNIA ON 00Z RAOBS AND ON WV THIS CAN BE SEE AS STRONG AREA
OF CLEARING NOSING INTO DIFFLUENT REGION BETWEEN RIDING AND UPPER
LOW. DEEP SW FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH
PLUME OF THICK HIGH CLOUD COVER STREAMING INTO THE PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH DRY
LINE APPROXIMATELY FROM LAMAR COLORADO SOUTH.
FOCUS ON THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS ON FIRE WEATHER TODAY AND A
POSSIBLE HIGH WIND EVENT TONIGHT. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
REGARDING UPDATES ON RFW.
TODAY...VERY WARM AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITH DEEP SW
FLOW ALOFT AND WAA ALONG/EAST OF SURFACE LOW. CIRRUS IS ALREADY
CONSIDERABLY MORE EXTENSIVE IN COVERAGE THAN MODELS WOULD INDICATE
AND SATELLITE TRENDS GENERALLY SUPPORT THIS TREND CONTINUING. THIS
COMPLICATES OUR HIGH TEMP FORECAST AND POTENTIAL MIXING HEIGHTS
FOR WIND/TDS. WITH SURFACE LOW SHIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHERN HALF
OF OUR CWA AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
STRONGEST SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. BETTER
MIXING WOULD STILL ALLOW FOR GUSTS IN THE 40-45 MPH RANGE
TODAY...HOWEVER DUE TO THE CIRRUS THESE STRONGER GUSTS MAY NOT BE
REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON. I LEANED TOWARD THE "COOLER" END OF
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...WHICH STILL SUPPORTS DAILY RECORDS AT MOST
LOCATIONS (UPPER 70S/NEAR 80). IF WE CAN SEE GOOD BREAKS AND LESS
OPAQUE CLOUD COVER WE MAY BE LOOKING AT MONTHLY RECORDS.
TONIGHT...UPPER LOW MOVES FROM PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH NEGATIVELY TILTED OPEN WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA
TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA
AROUND 06Z. MODELS SHOW A VERY STRONG LLJ DEVELOPING OVER OUR CWA
WITH H85 WINDS 60KT OR HIGHER. GFS IS THE STRONGEST ON BL
WINDS...AND MAY BE RUNNING HIGH AS THE STRONG FRONTAL INVERSION
(AIDED BY RADIATIONAL COOLING) COULD LIMIT MIXING. 3HR PRESSURE
RISES 8-10 MB BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL SUPPORT WINDY CONDITIONS...I
AM JUST NOT AS CONFIDENT THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT WILL
MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE. LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH WILL BE AIDED BY
STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND TROUGH AXIS (HIGHLIGHTED BY STRONG PV
ANOMALY ON DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE FIELD). THIS TYPE OF PATTERN TENDS
TO BE SHORT LIVED IN NATURE WITH STRONGEST GUSTS OVER SHORTER TIME
SPANS. I INCREASED WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA
TO INCLUDE GUSTS 50-55 MPH TONIGHT...BUT DECIDED AGAINST HIGH WIND
WATCH ISSUANCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NIGHTTIME MIXING OVER
OUR CWA.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THESE
PERIOD WITH DEEP DRY AIR AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SHOULD BE 10
TO 15 DEGREES COOLER AFTER THE FROPA TONIGHT...HOWEVER THEY WILL
STILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS OUR CWA (15-20F ABOVE NORMAL).
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 AM MST THU FEB 18 2016
UPPER FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE
OF TROUGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY. A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO MONDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY.
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW TO THE FA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT
SUPPORT AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. OTHERWISE ALL OTHER PERIODS
WILL BE DRY.
MAX TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER 50S WITH SOME MID TO UPPER 40S TUESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM MST WED FEB 17 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN STORY
CONTINUES TO BE THE WIND. FOR KGLD...LLWS WILL BE IN PLACE UNTIL
NEAR 12Z. AFTER HEATING/MIXING THE SOUTHWEST WILL INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY. THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL BE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 24 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 36
KNOTS. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING THE WINDS
TEMPORARILY DECREASE. HOWEVER DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
EVENING THE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN TO SIMILAR VALUES AS SEEN DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
FOR KMCK...LESS WIND EXPECTED HERE. HOWEVER LLWS SHEAR WILL BE IN
PLACE UNTIL NEAR 12Z. AFTER THAT THE WINDS INCREASE NEAR 03Z WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS NEAR 23 KNOTS. THAT IS
ALSO WHEN THE LLWS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 322 AM MST THU FEB 18 2016
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN LINE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA. THERE IS LESS
CERTAINTY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AS A RESULT OF HIGH CLOUD COVER
POTENTIALLY LIMITING MIXING WHICH IMPACTS RH AND WINDS. LOWER
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ADVERTISED BY MOST GUIDANCE IN OUR NORTH AS
A RESULT OF A SHIFT IN SURFACE LOW POSITION ALSO LOWERS
CONFIDENCE IN MEETING A 3HR DURATION OF WINDS IN OUR NORTHERN CWA.
I WAS COMFORTABLE KEEPING CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING IN PLACE AND
ADDING THOMAS AND SHERIDAN TO RFW AS THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MEET THE 3HR CROSSOVER OF WIND/RH EVEN IF WINDS ARE NOT
QUITE AS STRONG. I DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
YUMA (CO)...CHEYENNE (KS)...AND RAWLINS (KS) AS CONFIDENCE IS MUCH
LOWER AND WE ARE TOO CLOSE TO THE EVENT TO HANG ONTO THE WATCH ANY
LONGER. HAVING SAID THIS...IF CLOUD COVER ENDS UP BEING MUCH LESS
THIS AFTERNOON AND FULL MIXING IS ACHIEVED THE RFW MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED NORTH. THIS SITUATION NEEDS TO BE MONITORED.
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
CO/KS BORDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS LEE TROUGH BEGINS TO REDEVELOP
AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN REACHING THE 3HR
REQUIREMENT FOR FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 322 AM MST THU FEB 18 2016
RECORDS AND CURRENT FORECAST FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.
SITE.............DAILY RECORD...CURRENT FORECAST
GOODLAND, KS.........74...............78
MCCOOK, NE...........82...............75
BURLINGTON,CO........74...............78
HILL CITY,KS.........75...............82
COLBY, KS............81...............79
TRIBUNE, KS..........79...............82
YUMA, CO.............73...............74
CURRENT FEBRUARY MONTHLY HIGH TEMP RECORDS...
GOODLAND.....81 (02-28-2006 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
MCCOOK.......83 (02-23-1933 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
BURLINGTON...82 (02-11-1962)
HILL CITY....86 (02-28-2006 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
COLBY........83 (02-12-1911)
TRIBUNE......81 (02-20-1981)
YUMA.........79 (02-12-1962 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING TO 5 PM
MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ013>015-027>029-041-
042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR COZ253-254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...DR
CLIMATE...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
323 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
High clouds on water vapor imagery were noted lifting over the
upper ridge building into the western high plains this morning. A
broad and strong upper trough entering the Pac NW was streaming
steady moisture off the southern CA coast towards the southwest
Conus. Sfc Observations showed the developing lee trough across
eastern CO inducing southerly winds to increase between 10 and 15
mph. Low level moisture across southern TX was quickly advecting
northward with a strong 50+ kt low level jet ongoing and
anticipated to increase after sunrise.
This low level moisture advection is a major factor as to how low RH
readings fall during the late afternoon as a stout dryline mixes
eastward across KS. Fire weather details follow below on the current
thinking. Forecast was based on a combination of the RAP and HRRR
(previous and current runs) with the low 40 degree dewpoints and
highs in the lower 70s for east central/north central areas. North
central KS may be able to mix out to the upper 70s as forecast
soundings are consistent in the warm inversion layer reaching the
sfc in addition to the drier air. Wind speeds are also of concern
with speeds expected to increase shortly after sunrise between 25
and 35 mph sustained with gusts between 40 and 50 mph possible. For
this reason, have expanded the wind advisory for areas generally
along and south of Interstate 70.
For tonight, winds are expected to stay up between 15 and 25 mph
sustained as they veer to the west with the upper trough crossing
over Nebraska. High clouds increase while temps stay mild in the
lower 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 323 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
A quasi zonal pattern sets up for Friday and through the weekend
with the bulk of energy passing to the north of the forecast area.
Models continue to show low level moisture advection into east
central KS for Saturday and Saturday night as a subtle piece of
energy passes across the state. Both the NAM and GFS suggest there
will be little to no instability however and model progs of 850
winds remain rather light for this time of year. Nevertheless
there has been a persistent signal from the models for the
possibility for showers and thunderstorms so have maintained a
small chance POP for Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening. By
Sunday morning, a cold front is expected to push south of the
forecast area with dry air moving in. This should bring and end to
the precip changes as well as cooler temps for Sunday. Temps for
Friday and Saturday should remain well above normal. Forecast
soundings show the boundary layer mixing fairly deeply on Friday
but also bring in some cooler temps at 850 MB such that adiabatic
mixing would only support highs in the mid and upper 60s. Because
of this have shaved a degree or two off the highs from the prev
forecast. The airmass stays pretty similar for Saturday. The one
wild car is possible low clouds moving into eastern KS and
limiting insolation. For now have continued with highs in the mid
and upper 60s for Saturday.
For next week, the models are suggesting the pattern becomes more
amplified with a return to northwest flow for the central plains.
However there are differences in how the pattern sets up and where
week waves within the flow move. Its plausible that there could be
some light precip with these passing waves, similar to what we
experienced earlier this week. However low confidence in the small
scale features preclude a mention of precip chances at this time.
With the return of northwest flow, models bring the occasional
ridge of high pressure through the plains. This is expected to
keep temps cooler with highs in the 50s and lows around freezing
next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CST WED FEB 17 2016
VFR conditions are expected through the period. The first concern
will be low level wind shear through 14Z, then south to southwest
winds of 17 kts to 22 kts sustained with gusts to 32 kts expected
through 01Z then decreasing slightly through the end of the
period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 323 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
High resolution guidance is still struggling on dewpoints during the
afternoon as it appears to still overestimate the amount of moisture
advection from the southwest while underestimating the depth of
vertical mixing in regards to the drier air aloft. Forecast was
collaborated to side closer to the RAP and HRRR solutions which
represent an even compromise of RH values falling to the low and
middle 30 percent range for most of the area. Most uncertain area is
across north central Kansas where stronger mixing aloft and from the
dryline may help realize RH values dropping sharply towards the
upper teen to lower 20 percent range during the late afternoon.
Regardless of the RH values being borderline, winds sustained at 25
to 35 mph with gusts in upwards of 45 to 50 mph will easily promote
uncontrolled fire growth given the critical fuels reported.
Therefore have upgraded the watch to a Red Flag Warning in effect at
11 AM until 6 PM this evening for the entire area. Uncertainty
increases for this evening as RH values rise. Winds remain strong
however so any fire that forms during the afternoon will remain
uncontrollable overnight. Have maintained the watch overnight for
the next shift to review.
For Friday, dry air is still expected to overspread the forecast
area with min RH values falling to around 20 percent during the
afternoon. However models show the pressure gradient relaxing
pretty quickly in the morning Friday and wind speeds are forecast
to be quite a bit lighter. There remains the possibility to see
some gusts around 20 MPH especially across northern KS where the
gradient will be slower to relax. But the overall trend in the
models has been for weaker winds. Will keep the fire weather watch
in tact for now because of the dry air, but there is a real
possibility that conditions will not make it to red flag on
Friday.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CST this
evening for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
Fire Weather Watch from this evening through Friday afternoon
for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CST this evening
for KSZ021>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...53
FIRE WEATHER...Bowen/Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1105 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO GET TEMPS MORE IN LINE WITH REALITY AS THEY
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FALL DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST WINDS STAYING UP.
THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES ON ITS TREK NORTHEAST. THIS BROUGHT GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING. THE WINDS ARE STARTING TO
SETTLE WITH MOST GUSTS CAPPED AT 25 MPH. EXPECT THESE TO FURTHER
DIMINISH WITH TIME THIS EVENING. AS SUCH HAVE DROPPED THE NPW AND
UPDATED THE HWO/ZFP. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A
FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAKE OF A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT. DID ADD A TOUCH OF
SHOWERS TOWARDS DAWN IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA PER THE
LATEST HRRR AND 18Z NAM12. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE FOR THE
NIGHT LEADING TO MILD CONDITIONS AND A WELL MIXED LOWER
ATMOSPHERE...MEANING NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. CURRENTLY...TEMPS ARE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S. HAVE ALSO FINE TUNED TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS PER THE LATEST
SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AND OBS/TRENDS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS HAS BROUGHT UNSEASONABLE WARMTH TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...AS TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN WELL INTO
THE MID 60S WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NEAR THE VIRGINIA STATE LINE. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40-45 MPH WILL DECREASE BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF TURBULENT MIXING AND WIND SPEED MAXIMA ALOFT PASSING OFF
TO THE EAST. WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ON BLACK
MOUNTAIN AND SURROUNDING HIGHER TERRAIN WELL INTO THIS EVENING IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT.
WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY THIS EVENING IN ACCORDANCE WITH A GREAT LAKES LOW...BRINGING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO THE REGION. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW SHALLOW OMEGA PROFILES AND SATURATING LOWER LEVELS...CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH GIVEN THE LACK OF
DEEP LAYER LIFT/SATURATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
WILL SEE MOISTURE HANG UP ACROSS NORTHERN TENNESSEE AND
POTENTIALLY EVEN SOUTHERN KENTUCKY SATURDAY AS A SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS IN A TYPICAL CROSS-MOUNTAIN FLOW
REGIME ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. QUICK-PACED ZONAL FLOW
AIDED BY A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL DRAW THIS SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...THUS
INCREASING RAIN SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
60S SATURDAY AND MID 50S-LOW 60S SUNDAY. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES
SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS RIVALING CLIMATOLOGICAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MID 40S-LOW 50S SATURDAY MORNING AND
UPPER 40S-MID 50S SUNDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO COME TO ANY TYPE OF CONSENSUS ON SOLUTIONS
AND RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY HAS BEEN POOR. CONSEQUENTLY OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE
LOWER THAN USUAL. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT THE LARGER SCALE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL EVOLVE INTO A
LESS PROGRESSIVE WESTERN RIDGE...EASTERN TROUGH ORIENTATION.
ALOFT...SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT MEAN TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY DY3...TUESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
TRACKING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL MAKE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
SYSTEMS THROUGH THE REGION THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE OF THE FORECAST.
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...FIRST SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WILL TRACK UP THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY OVER A STALLED OUT FRONTAL ZONE. THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY GENERATE A BAND OF SHOWERS THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY EVEN BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO...MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN MOST ZONES WHERE
THERE IS A BIT MORE INSTABILITY. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
KEEPING THE FRONTAL ZONE FURTHER SOUTH...ORIENTED WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AND AS A RESULT HAS BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE QPF...PRODUCING NEARLY THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR MORE OF
RAINFALL ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS SCENARIO HAS ALSO BEEN AN OUTLIER WHEN
COMPARED WITH THE NAM/ECMWF WHICH PLACES THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...WHERE THE FRONTAL
ZONES LIFTS IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER APPROACHING SFC WAVE. THE
NAM AND ECMWF ONLY GENERATE AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN ACROSS
OUR AREA. A GFS SOLUTION WOULD LIKELY KEEP SEVERAL OF OUR STREAMS
AND RIVERS RUNNING HIGH FOR ANOTHER FEW DAYS.
THEREAFTER FOCUS TURNS TO POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER(S) EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR
MORE SFC LOWS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. BUT TRACKS HAVE BEEN AS FAR
NORTHWEST AS OUR FORECAST AREA AND AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...OR GULF STREAM. MODELS ARE OBVIOUSLY HAVING TROUBLE
NEGOTIATING ENERGY TRAVELING THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON A BLEND OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS AND GUIDANCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AT LEAST
UNTIL MODELS ARE ABLE TO SETTLE ON A SOLUTION. IN ADDITION...THERE
ARE NO SOLID TRENDS TO GUIDE THE FORECAST ONE WAY OR ANOTHER WITH
RESPECT TO NEXT WEEK/S WEATHER. THEREFORE FEEL IT IS BEST TO
CONTINUE OUR CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE OF LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
RESPECT TO ANY TYPE OF SIGNIFICANT WINTRY WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK.
FOR TEMPS...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE WILL COOL BACK DOWN FROM VERY WARM
60S ON SUNDAY TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS...OR POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WINDOW. EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT TEMPS
WILL ACTUALLY TURN OUT TO BE A BIT COOLER CONSIDERING THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN. BUT BASED ON THE BLEND OF GUIDANCE...WE CAN GENERALLY
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 EACH DAY...AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S. OF COURSE EXPECT AN ADJUSTMENT IN THESE TEMPS ONCE
THERE IS A BETTER HANDLE IN TIMING THE UPCOMING DISTURBANCES THROUGH
OUR AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS BEFORE MVFR
CEILINGS BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. BREEZY/GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO
NEAR OR BELOW 10 KNOTS TOWARD MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER LLWS WILL BE AN
ISSUE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH NEAR 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE AROUND
FL020. WE MAY SEE MVFR DECKS BREAK BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY AS ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN...BUT
WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INDICATED IN THE TIME HEIGHTS
WILL KEEP THE TAF CIGS LOCKED IN THE MVFR RANGE THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
810 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES ON ITS TREK NORTHEAST. THIS BROUGHT GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING. THE WINDS ARE STARTING TO
SETTLE WITH MOST GUSTS CAPPED AT 25 MPH. EXPECT THESE TO FURTHER
DIMINISH WITH TIME THIS EVENING. AS SUCH HAVE DROPPED THE NPW AND
UPDATED THE HWO/ZFP. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A
FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAKE OF A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT. DID ADD A TOUCH OF
SHOWERS TOWARDS DAWN IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA PER THE
LATEST HRRR AND 18Z NAM12. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE FOR THE
NIGHT LEADING TO MILD CONDITIONS AND A WELL MIXED LOWER
ATMOSPHERE...MEANING NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. CURRENTLY...TEMPS ARE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S. HAVE ALSO FINE TUNED TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS PER THE LATEST
SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AND OBS/TRENDS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS HAS BROUGHT UNSEASONABLE WARMTH TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...AS TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN WELL INTO
THE MID 60S WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NEAR THE VIRGINIA STATE LINE. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40-45 MPH WILL DECREASE BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF TURBULENT MIXING AND WIND SPEED MAXIMA ALOFT PASSING OFF
TO THE EAST. WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ON BLACK
MOUNTAIN AND SURROUNDING HIGHER TERRAIN WELL INTO THIS EVENING IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT.
WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY THIS EVENING IN ACCORDANCE WITH A GREAT LAKES LOW...BRINGING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO THE REGION. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW SHALLOW OMEGA PROFILES AND SATURATING LOWER LEVELS...CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH GIVEN THE LACK OF
DEEP LAYER LIFT/SATURATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
WILL SEE MOISTURE HANG UP ACROSS NORTHERN TENNESSEE AND
POTENTIALLY EVEN SOUTHERN KENTUCKY SATURDAY AS A SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS IN A TYPICAL CROSS-MOUNTAIN FLOW
REGIME ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. QUICK-PACED ZONAL FLOW
AIDED BY A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL DRAW THIS SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...THUS
INCREASING RAIN SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
60S SATURDAY AND MID 50S-LOW 60S SUNDAY. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES
SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS RIVALING CLIMATOLOGICAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MID 40S-LOW 50S SATURDAY MORNING AND
UPPER 40S-MID 50S SUNDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO COME TO ANY TYPE OF CONSENSUS ON SOLUTIONS
AND RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY HAS BEEN POOR. CONSEQUENTLY OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE
LOWER THAN USUAL. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT THE LARGER SCALE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL EVOLVE INTO A
LESS PROGRESSIVE WESTERN RIDGE...EASTERN TROUGH ORIENTATION.
ALOFT...SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT MEAN TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY DY3...TUESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
TRACKING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL MAKE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
SYSTEMS THROUGH THE REGION THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE OF THE FORECAST.
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...FIRST SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WILL TRACK UP THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY OVER A STALLED OUT FRONTAL ZONE. THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY GENERATE A BAND OF SHOWERS THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY EVEN BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO...MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN MOST ZONES WHERE
THERE IS A BIT MORE INSTABILITY. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
KEEPING THE FRONTAL ZONE FURTHER SOUTH...ORIENTED WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AND AS A RESULT HAS BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE QPF...PRODUCING NEARLY THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR MORE OF
RAINFALL ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS SCENARIO HAS ALSO BEEN AN OUTLIER WHEN
COMPARED WITH THE NAM/ECMWF WHICH PLACES THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...WHERE THE FRONTAL
ZONES LIFTS IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER APPROACHING SFC WAVE. THE
NAM AND ECMWF ONLY GENERATE AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN ACROSS
OUR AREA. A GFS SOLUTION WOULD LIKELY KEEP SEVERAL OF OUR STREAMS
AND RIVERS RUNNING HIGH FOR ANOTHER FEW DAYS.
THEREAFTER FOCUS TURNS TO POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER(S) EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR
MORE SFC LOWS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. BUT TRACKS HAVE BEEN AS FAR
NORTHWEST AS OUR FORECAST AREA AND AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...OR GULF STREAM. MODELS ARE OBVIOUSLY HAVING TROUBLE
NEGOTIATING ENERGY TRAVELING THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON A BLEND OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS AND GUIDANCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AT LEAST
UNTIL MODELS ARE ABLE TO SETTLE ON A SOLUTION. IN ADDITION...THERE
ARE NO SOLID TRENDS TO GUIDE THE FORECAST ONE WAY OR ANOTHER WITH
RESPECT TO NEXT WEEK/S WEATHER. THEREFORE FEEL IT IS BEST TO
CONTINUE OUR CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE OF LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
RESPECT TO ANY TYPE OF SIGNIFICANT WINTRY WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK.
FOR TEMPS...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE WILL COOL BACK DOWN FROM VERY WARM
60S ON SUNDAY TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS...OR POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WINDOW. EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT TEMPS
WILL ACTUALLY TURN OUT TO BE A BIT COOLER CONSIDERING THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN. BUT BASED ON THE BLEND OF GUIDANCE...WE CAN GENERALLY
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 EACH DAY...AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S. OF COURSE EXPECT AN ADJUSTMENT IN THESE TEMPS ONCE
THERE IS A BETTER HANDLE IN TIMING THE UPCOMING DISTURBANCES THROUGH
OUR AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS BEFORE MVFR
CEILINGS BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. BREEZY/GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO
NEAR OR BELOW 10 KNOTS TOWARD MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER LLWS WILL BE AN
ISSUE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH NEAR 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE AROUND
FL020. WE MAY SEE MVFR DECKS BREAK BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY AS ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN...BUT
WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INDICATED IN THE TIME HEIGHTS
WILL KEEP THE TAF CIGS LOCKED IN THE MVFR RANGE THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1113 PM EST WED FEB 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH MUCH
COLDER AIR FOLLOWING FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
TOWARD THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY. A CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
11 PM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE LATEST CONDITIONS. CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE W AS THE COLD
FRONT SLIDES SE. TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING OFF BUT STILL SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE LATEST ADJLAV DOING THE BEST W/TEMPS
SHOWING THEM TO DROP OFF AFTER 3 AM W/CAA ARRIVING. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED GOOD ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS. THE LATEST REGIONAL RADAR ALONG W/THE MRMS SHOWED SOME
ECHOES SHOWING UP ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW
BEST SUPPORT FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL AREAS
OVERNIGHT. STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW W/THE 30% POPS ATTM BUT A
SHIFT FURTHER S TOWARD PISCATAQUIS COUNTY AND MT. KATAHDIN.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS FAR AS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GO, HAVE GENERALLY KEPT ACCUMULATIONS
LESS THAN AN INCH IN ANY SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. BUT AS IS TYPICALLY
THE CASE WITH THESE SITUATIONS, SOME LOCATIONS UNDER ANY HEAVIER
BANDS COULD PICK UP A QUICK INCH OR TWO BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH THE COLDEST
READINGS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND THE ST JOHN VALLEY WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO BY
MORNING BUT ONLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS INTERIOR DOWN EAST
MAINE AND COASTAL LOCATIONS.
THURSDAY WILL BE A COLDER DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. WE COULD
STILL SEE SOME LINGERING SNOW STREAMERS FIRST THING THURSDAY
MORNING UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER TROF DURING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING SUNSHINE BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20 NORTH AND LOW TO
MID TEENS DOWN EAST AND THE COAST.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST TOWARD THE
AREA WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL
IS THERE FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
AND INTERIOR DOWN EAST AREAS. AS SUCH, HAVE GONE A LITTLE COLDER
THAN GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE FEEL
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP WELL BELOW ZERO, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
COLDER VALLEY LOCALES OF THE NORTH AND WEST. AGAIN, THIS IS ALL
DEPENDENT ON WHETHER OF NOT WE DECOUPLE AND WINDS CAN DROP OFF
QUICK ENOUGH. EXPECT LOWS 5 TO 10 BELOW ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS TO
5 TO 10 ABOVE DOWN EAST
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER A CHILLY START FRI MORN WITH THE PASSAGE OF SFC HI PRES TO
OUR E...TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL AFTN HIGHS.
CLDS INCREASE W TO E ACROSS THE AREA FRI EVE AND OVRNGT...WITH LGT
SN MOVG INTO THE FA LATE AS S/WV ENERGY ALF AND LLVL WARM ADVCN
INCREASE. IN FACT...WITH THE SFC LOW FROM ONT PROV TRACKING WELL
TO OUR N...MOST MODELS SHOW ENOUGH LLVL WARM ADVCN FOR LGT SNFL
SAT MORN MIXING WITH EVEN CHGNG TO RN BY SAT AFTN...SPCLY DOWNEAST
AS FCST 925MB TEMPS RISE TO OR JUST ABV ZERO C...SO MOST SN
ACCUMULATION WITH THIS LITTLE EVENT WILL BE PRIOR TO 1 PM SAT.
MILD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT EVE FOR MIXED LGT RN/SN OR RN/SN
SHWRS N AND ALL LGT RN/LGT RN SHWRS CNTRL AND DOWNEAST THEN ENDING
OVRNGT SAT. TOTAL EVENT SNFL FOR LATE FRI NGT INTO ERLY SAT EVE WE
SHOW MATCHES CLOSE TO THE 50TH PERCENTILE OF SNOW PROB TOTALS FROM
WPC ENSEMBLES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FOR SUN BEHIND THE LOW EXITING
THRU THE NRN CAN MARITIMES SAT NGT. A SIG DIFFERENCE EXITS BETWEEN
THE 12Z OPNL GFS AND THE OTHER LONGER TERM OPNL MODELS FOR LATE
SUN NGT INTO MON...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A SIG S/WV MOVG TOWARD AND
ACROSS THE FA FROM THE GREAT LKS WITH OVRRNG ATLC MOISTURE. OTHER
MODELS ARE MUCH WEAKER AND FLATTER/FURTHER S WITH THE S/WV
FEATURE ALF...WITH LITTLE OR NO ORGANIZED STRATIFORM PRECIP AS FAR
N AS OUR FA...BUT RATHER SCT SN SHWRS OR FLURRIES. WITH THE 12Z
GFS ENSM SHOWING A SOLUTION MORE IN LN WITH THE 12Z CANGEM...WHICH
KEEPS ANY LGT STRATIFORM PRECIP S OF OUR FA...WE KEPT POPS FOR SN
SHWRS IN THE LOW CHC RANGE N TO HIGHER CHC DOWNEAST FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...FAIR AND SEASONALLY COLDER CONDITIONS FOLLOW MON`S
WEAK S/WV FOR MON NGT AND TUE AS SEMI ARCTIC AIR MOVES EWRD INTO
THE FA. LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO
THE EVOLUTION OF A SIG COASTAL MID ATLC LOW PRES SYSTEM FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH THE TYPICAL GFS EARLY TMG AND LATER ECMWF
TMG BIASES. TAKING A BLEND OF THE MODELS BRINGS THE LEADING EDGE
OF PRECIP TO DOWNEAST AREAS LATE TUE NGT...SLOWLY SPREADING NWRD
INTO THE REST OF THE FA WED INTO WED NGT. BOTH MODELS SHOW STRONG
MID LVL WARMING WELL ALF...IN THE 750 TO 850 MB LAYER...TO BEGIN
OCCURRING N OF THE DEVELOPING LOW BY WED NGT...POTENTIALLY
BRINGING A FAIRLY WIDE BAND OF SLEET TO THE REGION...MORE TYPICAL
OF MARCH WNTR STMS IN THIS AREA. STILL WAY TO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN
SPECIFICS ABOUT WHO AND WHEN WILL HAVE WHAT PRECIP TYPES GIVEN
UNCERTAINTIES OF STM TRACK AND INTENSITY...BUT WE DID GENERATE
PRECIP FROM THICKNESS USING A BLEND OF 12Z OPNL
GFS/ECMWF...SHOWING THE POTENTIAL OF SLEET AND PERHAPS A NARROW
BAND OF FZRA BY WED NGT. FOR NOW...WE GO WITH MAX POPS OF HI CHC N
AND CNTRL AND LOW LIKELY FOR DOWNEAST AREAS BY WED EVE...ABOUT AS
HIGH AS WE ASSIGN WITH AN EVENT AT DAY 7 TO 7.5.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: SKY CONDITION, VFR VS MVFR IS A POTENTIAL CHALLENGE
TONIGHT. FCST SOUNDING ARE HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MVFR
CLOUD LAYER BENEATH A SHALLOW INVERSION LATER TONIGHT, MAINLY
KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL NORTH. ANOTHER CHALLENGE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. AVIATORS SHOULD EXPECT AT LEAST THE
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS OR VSBY IN ANY SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY NRN
TAF SITES. THESE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: ALL SITES INITIALLY VFR FRI INTO FRI EVE...THEN CLGS
AND VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR IN LGT FALLING SN LATE FRI NGT
INTO SAT MORN AND THEN MIXED PRECIP SAT AFTN INTO SAT EVE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR CLGS N AND VFR DOWNEAST LATE SAT NGT
CONTG INTO SUN EVE...THEN BECOME MVFR ALL SITES MON WITH CLGS AND
OCNL VSBYS WITH SN SHWRS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: LONG PERIOD WAVES (CURRENTLY 11S) WERE AFFECTING THE
COASTAL WATERS AND WE ARE EXPECTING WAVES TO ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THU. WILL EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
SEAS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY FOR THE OUTER MOST WATERS. WITH SEAS
ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL TO ONLY BE AROUND 5 FEET WITH LONG PERIOD
SWELL WILL DROP SCA FOR THAT ZONE.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO DEFINABLE GALE OR GREATER HDLN POTENTIAL
FOR OUR WATERS AT LEAST THRU TUE...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SCA
WVS AND SEAS SAT INTO SAT EVE WITH A MDT SRLY WIND FETCH. OTHERWISE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE AT OR BELOW MIN SCA THRESHOLDS. KEPT CLOSE
TO WW3 WV HTS FOR FCST WV HTS FOR THESE PTNS OF THE MARINE FCST.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
806 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 757 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY IS PICKING UP ON A SMALL AREA OF
PRECIPITATION OVER FAR SE NORTH DAKOTA...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
THERMAL RIDGE AND MID LEVEL WAVE. A CURRENT DISTANCE-SPEED TRACK
BRINGS THIS AREA OF BRIEF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE INTO THE BRAINERD
LAKES AREA AROUND 1000 PM. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR IS ALSO
PICKING UP ON THIS FEATURE AND SUGGESTS IT SLIDES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN ZONES...INCLUDING THE MILLE LACS LAKE AND ST CROIX RIVER
VALLEY...THROUGH DAY BREAK. HAVE INTRODUCED A FEW HOURS PERIOD OF
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES INTO THE GRIDS FOR THIS AREA ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
RAIN...SOMETIMES CHANGING TO SNOW OR SLEET...CONTINUES ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL QUICKLY WRAP UP TOWARDS THE
EVENING AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION TOWARDS LAKE
SUPERIOR. COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AS A
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAILS THE MAIN THE LOW...RESULTING IN
MAINLY SNOW OVERNIGHT NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY FALL BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS...BUT A MILD START TO THE
WEEKEND NONETHELESS.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A FAIRLY FAST-MOVING PATTERN ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE MIDWEST. THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE WINTRY PRECIP YESTERDAY AND TODAY IS LIFTING EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO EASTERN ONTARIO TODAY WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON ITS TAIL OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SRN MANITOBA
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON DIVING EAST TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS
IT WEAKENS TONIGHT. A RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BREAKS DOWN
WITH A MUCH MORE ZONAL PATTERN AT MID LEVELS FOR SATURDAY. THE
SECOND UPPER LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN TO FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TONIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH
POSSIBLE FROM INTERNATIONAL FALLS TO ELY AND POINTS NORTH...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE IRON RANGE AND TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD.
AIR MOVING IN WITH THIS SECOND LOW IS COLDER BUT CERTAINLY NOT VERY
COLD...JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW 0C...SO TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BOUT OF CLEARING IN
THE SOUTHERN CWA...MAINLY BRAINERD TO SPOONER...DUE TO SOME MID-
LEVEL RIDGING IN BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS...BUT CLOUDS QUICKLY RETURN
TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 30S.
SATURDAY MILD AND MOSTLY CLOUDY. DESPITE THE LOW DEPARTING A MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS PREVENTS AN ARCTIC
HIGH FROM BUILD IN WHICH MEANS CONTINUED CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.
PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
WITH A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE DRY. HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
MAIN CONCERN FOR LONG TERM IS LIGHT SNOW CHANCES/TEMPS
IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD. WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL
AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK BRINING PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW ALONG WITH SHORT LIVED COLD TEMPERATURES. A SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BIT WILL HAVE
LITTLE MOISTURE WITH IT SO ONLY AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
BRINGING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE REST OF THE NEXT WEEK WILL SEE A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
BRINGING LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION TO THE REGION. TEMPS WILL
VARY FROM NORMAL TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
EXPECTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR
BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES IN. AROUND 07Z TO 14Z ANOTHER
ROUND OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES IN.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF IFR/LIFR AS HINTED BY THE LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE/GFSLAMP...BUT HELD OFF FOR THE TIME BEING AS CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH HOW WIDESPREAD THESE CIGS WILL BE AS UPSTREAM OBS
STILL ARE MVFR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 31 36 24 30 / 20 10 10 30
INL 30 33 17 23 / 50 30 20 10
BRD 32 36 25 32 / 10 10 30 20
HYR 33 37 25 34 / 20 10 10 30
ASX 33 38 25 31 / 70 20 20 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GRANING
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...WL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1200 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 436 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
A CHECK ON THE NAM SHOWS ELEVATED INSTABILITY TONIGHT WITH 100 TO
200 J/KG OF CAPE. THE REFLECTIVITY PRODUCT AND K INDICES OVER 30
SUGGEST ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
A NEW FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS FEATURE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A BLEND OF THE 4 GUIDANCE DATA SET PLUS BIAS
CORRECTION SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S TODAY. IT LOOKS LIKE HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE IN AND OUT OF THE FCST AREA SO THE WARMEST NUMBERS
PROBABLY WOULD NOT VERIFY. THE BAROCLINIC LEAF STRETCHING ACROSS THE
WRN U.S. WILL MOVE OVER THE FCST AREA TODAY.
THE LATEST MODELS SHOW HIGH WINDS MORE LIKELY TONIGHT. THE RAP MODEL
INDICATES AN ASTONISHING 3 HR PRESSURE RISE OF 13 MB NEAR RAWLINS WY
AT 01Z TONIGHT. THIS COUPLED WITH A PV1.5 ANOMALY AND H850 WINDS
RISING TO 60-70KT PRODUCES A MODERATE OR HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR HIGH
WINDS ACROSS WRN AND NCNTL NEB. THE GFS20 CLOCKS THE COLD FRONT
MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH. THE NAM FCSTS WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 70 MPH
IN SOME LOCATIONS. THIS WOULD BE THE MAX WE WOULD EXPECT ASSUMING A
MIXED LAYER FORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. PEAK WIND GUSTS WOULD LAST 1
TO 2 HOURS AS THE FRONT RACES THROUGH THE FCST AREA BETWEEN 03Z AND
09Z. THE PV1.5 ANOMALY SUGGESTS INTERSTATE 80 AND NCNTL NEB ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WOULD BE MOST FAVORED FOR HIGH WINDS. THE NAM
WIND GUSTS INDICATE ALL ZONES.
THE GFS SOUNDINGS FOR NORTH PLATTE SHOW A MIXED LAYER EXTENDING TO
550MB AT 03Z JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH COLLAPSES TO 780MB
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE 500M AGL TEMPERATURE FALLS FROM 73F AT 03Z TO
47F AT 06Z WITH 55 TO 65 KT WINDS AT THIS LEVEL...OFF THE CHARTS.
A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN PLACE FOR ALL ZONES TONIGHT. THE RAP AND
HRRR MODELS COULD PERHAPS CULL SOME COUNTIES FROM THE WATCH LATER
TODAY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGEST SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED SHOWERS
TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20. THIS WOULD EASILY
MIX THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SFC IN THESE AREAS. THUS THE
CONVECTION MAY WORK FOR HIGH WINDS WHERE THE PV1.5 ANOMALY IS ABSENT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
MID RANGE...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE
TEMPERATURES AND WIND. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE
STRONG PACIFIC FRONT AND PV ANOMALY WHILE DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND WARM
850HPA TEMPS CONTRIBUTE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS. GFS AND NAM KEEP
LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS AOA 40 KTS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE WILL
RESULT IN FAIR CONDITIONS AND A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO 700HPA AT KLBF AND KVTN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS. EDGED MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO THE MAV
AND ECS GUIDANCE...WHICH BOTH SHOW UPPER 60S FOR MOST OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA. A WEAK FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER MAX TEMPS NORTH BUT ABOUT
THE SAME SOUTH. SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE GOOD MIXING SATURDAY...BUT
WIND WILL NOT BE A BIG AN ISSUE AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL HAVE MOVED EAST.
LONG RANGE...SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY...A COUPLE WAVES TRAVERSE THE AREA
SUNDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE 500HPA FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM QUASI ZONAL TO
NORTHWEST. A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
850HPA CAA LEADING TO TEMPS NEAR 0C AT 18Z SUNDAY WILL TAKE HIGHS
MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL. FRONTOGENESIS LOOKS IMPRESSIVE EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE LACKING. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
MONDAY WITH LITTLE IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE RECOVERY. THE GFS AND
EURO SHOW BETTER MOISTURE AND MARGINAL LIFT FOR THE SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY...HOWEVER DISCREPANCIES REMAIN WITH THE TIMING OF THE BEST
FORCING. EXTENDED PROCEDURE INTRODUCED SCHC POPS...BUT DECIDED TO
KEEP DRY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. MORE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WITH A 850HPA RIDGE AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE
SANDHILLS WEDNESDAY...PUSHING HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 50S AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
HIGH CIRRUS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WITH GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH A SIGNIFICANT WIND CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT. LIGHT
WINDS WILL BECOME VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS COULD GUST TO
AROUND 45 KTS...HOWEVER WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE COULD GUST TO
60 KTS. NOT ENOUGH OF A CHANGE FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...HOWEVER
IF ANY DECOUPLING OCCURS IN RIVER VALLEYS...LLWS WOULD BE AN
ISSUE. WINDS DIMINISH QUICKLY IN THE MORNING HOURS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT FOR NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
447 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 436 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
A CHECK ON THE NAM SHOWS ELEVATED INSTABILITY TONIGHT WITH 100 TO
200 J/KG OF CAPE. THE REFLECTIVITY PRODUCT AND K INDICES OVER 30
SUGGEST ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
A NEW FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS FEATURE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A BLEND OF THE 4 GUIDANCE DATA SET PLUS BIAS
CORRECTION SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S TODAY. IT LOOKS LIKE HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE IN AND OUT OF THE FCST AREA SO THE WARMEST NUMBERS
PROBABLY WOULD NOT VERIFY. THE BAROCLINIC LEAF STRETCHING ACROSS THE
WRN U.S. WILL MOVE OVER THE FCST AREA TODAY.
THE LATEST MODELS SHOW HIGH WINDS MORE LIKELY TONIGHT. THE RAP MODEL
INDICATES AN ASTONISHING 3 HR PRESSURE RISE OF 13 MB NEAR RAWLINS WY
AT 01Z TONIGHT. THIS COUPLED WITH A PV1.5 ANOMALY AND H850 WINDS
RISING TO 60-70KT PRODUCES A MODERATE OR HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR HIGH
WINDS ACROSS WRN AND NCNTL NEB. THE GFS20 CLOCKS THE COLD FRONT
MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH. THE NAM FCSTS WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 70 MPH
IN SOME LOCATIONS. THIS WOULD BE THE MAX WE WOULD EXPECT ASSUMING A
MIXED LAYER FORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. PEAK WIND GUSTS WOULD LAST 1
TO 2 HOURS AS THE FRONT RACES THROUGH THE FCST AREA BETWEEN 03Z AND
09Z. THE PV1.5 ANOMALY SUGGESTS INTERSTATE 80 AND NCNTL NEB ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WOULD BE MOST FAVORED FOR HIGH WINDS. THE NAM
WIND GUSTS INDICATE ALL ZONES.
THE GFS SOUNDINGS FOR NORTH PLATTE SHOW A MIXED LAYER EXTENDING TO
550MB AT 03Z JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH COLLAPSES TO 780MB
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE 500M AGL TEMPERATURE FALLS FROM 73F AT 03Z TO
47F AT 06Z WITH 55 TO 65 KT WINDS AT THIS LEVEL...OFF THE CHARTS.
A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN PLACE FOR ALL ZONES TONIGHT. THE RAP AND
HRRR MODELS COULD PERHAPS CULL SOME COUNTIES FROM THE WATCH LATER
TODAY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGEST SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED SHOWERS
TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20. THIS WOULD EASILY
MIX THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SFC IN THESE AREAS. THUS THE
CONVECTION MAY WORK FOR HIGH WINDS WHERE THE PV1.5 ANOMALY IS ABSENT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
MID RANGE...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE
TEMPERATURES AND WIND. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE
STRONG PACIFIC FRONT AND PV ANOMALY WHILE DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND WARM
850HPA TEMPS CONTRIBUTE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS. GFS AND NAM KEEP
LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS AOA 40 KTS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE WILL
RESULT IN FAIR CONDITIONS AND A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO 700HPA AT KLBF AND KVTN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS. EDGED MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO THE MAV
AND ECS GUIDANCE...WHICH BOTH SHOW UPPER 60S FOR MOST OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA. A WEAK FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER MAX TEMPS NORTH BUT ABOUT
THE SAME SOUTH. SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE GOOD MIXING SATURDAY...BUT
WIND WILL NOT BE A BIG AN ISSUE AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL HAVE MOVED EAST.
LONG RANGE...SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY...A COUPLE WAVES TRAVERSE THE AREA
SUNDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE 500HPA FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM QUASI ZONAL TO
NORTHWEST. A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
850HPA CAA LEADING TO TEMPS NEAR 0C AT 18Z SUNDAY WILL TAKE HIGHS
MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL. FRONTOGENESIS LOOKS IMPRESSIVE EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE LACKING. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
MONDAY WITH LITTLE IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE RECOVERY. THE GFS AND
EURO SHOW BETTER MOISTURE AND MARGINAL LIFT FOR THE SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY...HOWEVER DISCREPANCIES REMAIN WITH THE TIMING OF THE BEST
FORCING. EXTENDED PROCEDURE INTRODUCED SCHC POPS...BUT DECIDED TO
KEEP DRY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. MORE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WITH A 850HPA RIDGE AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE
SANDHILLS WEDNESDAY...PUSHING HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 50S AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST WED FEB 17 2016
FOR BOTH THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CIGS OF 20000 FT AGL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AT 10 KTS...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO
20 KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TEMPORARILY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH AT 10 KTS THURSDAY EVENING WITH AN ABRUPT SHIFT TO THE WEST
AFTER 03Z FRIDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO 15 TO 25
KTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35 KTS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...BUTTLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
322 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A BLEND OF THE 4 GUIDANCE DATA SET PLUS BIAS
CORRECTION SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S TODAY. IT LOOKS LIKE HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE IN AND OUT OF THE FCST AREA SO THE WARMEST NUMBERS
PROBABLY WOULD NOT VERIFY. THE BAROCLINIC LEAF STRETCHING ACROSS THE
WRN U.S. WILL MOVE OVER THE FCST AREA TODAY.
THE LATEST MODELS SHOW HIGH WINDS MORE LIKELY TONIGHT. THE RAP MODEL
INDICATES AN ASTONISHING 3 HR PRESSURE RISE OF 13 MB NEAR RAWLINS WY
AT 01Z TONIGHT. THIS COUPLED WITH A PV1.5 ANOMALY AND H850 WINDS
RISING TO 60-70KT PRODUCES A MODERATE OR HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR HIGH
WINDS ACROSS WRN AND NCNTL NEB. THE GFS20 CLOCKS THE COLD FRONT
MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH. THE NAM FCSTS WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 70 MPH
IN SOME LOCATIONS. THIS WOULD BE THE MAX WE WOULD EXPECT ASSUMING A
MIXED LAYER FORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. PEAK WIND GUSTS WOULD LAST 1
TO 2 HOURS AS THE FRONT RACES THROUGH THE FCST AREA BETWEEN 03Z AND
09Z. THE PV1.5 ANOMALY SUGGESTS INTERSTATE 80 AND NCNTL NEB ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WOULD BE MOST FAVORED FOR HIGH WINDS. THE NAM
WIND GUSTS INDICATE ALL ZONES.
THE GFS SOUNDINGS FOR NORTH PLATTE SHOW A MIXED LAYER EXTENDING TO
550MB AT 03Z JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH COLLAPSES TO 780MB
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE 500M AGL TEMPERATURE FALLS FROM 73F AT 03Z TO
47F AT 06Z WITH 55 TO 65 KT WINDS AT THIS LEVEL...OFF THE CHARTS.
A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN PLACE FOR ALL ZONES TONIGHT. THE RAP AND
HRRR MODELS COULD PERHAPS CULL SOME COUNTIES FROM THE WATCH LATER
TODAY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGEST SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED SHOWERS
TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20. THIS WOULD EASILY
MIX THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SFC IN THESE AREAS. THUS THE
CONVECTION MAY WORK FOR HIGH WINDS WHERE THE PV1.5 ANOMALY IS ABSENT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
MID RANGE...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE
TEMPERATURES AND WIND. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE
STRONG PACIFIC FRONT AND PV ANOMALY WHILE DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND WARM
850HPA TEMPS CONTRIBUTE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS. GFS AND NAM KEEP
LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS AOA 40 KTS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE WILL
RESULT IN FAIR CONDITIONS AND A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO 700HPA AT KLBF AND KVTN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS. EDGED MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO THE MAV
AND ECS GUIDANCE...WHICH BOTH SHOW UPPER 60S FOR MOST OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA. A WEAK FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER MAX TEMPS NORTH BUT ABOUT
THE SAME SOUTH. SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE GOOD MIXING SATURDAY...BUT
WIND WILL NOT BE A BIG AN ISSUE AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL HAVE MOVED EAST.
LONG RANGE...SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY...A COUPLE WAVES TRAVERSE THE AREA
SUNDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE 500HPA FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM QUASI ZONAL TO
NORTHWEST. A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
850HPA CAA LEADING TO TEMPS NEAR 0C AT 18Z SUNDAY WILL TAKE HIGHS
MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL. FRONTOGENESIS LOOKS IMPRESSIVE EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE LACKING. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
MONDAY WITH LITTLE IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE RECOVERY. THE GFS AND
EURO SHOW BETTER MOISTURE AND MARGINAL LIFT FOR THE SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY...HOWEVER DISCREPANCIES REMAIN WITH THE TIMING OF THE BEST
FORCING. EXTENDED PROCEDURE INTRODUCED SCHC POPS...BUT DECIDED TO
KEEP DRY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. MORE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WITH A 850HPA RIDGE AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE
SANDHILLS WEDNESDAY...PUSHING HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 50S AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST WED FEB 17 2016
FOR BOTH THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CIGS OF 20000 FT AGL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AT 10 KTS...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO
20 KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TEMPORARILY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH AT 10 KTS THURSDAY EVENING WITH AN ABRUPT SHIFT TO THE WEST
AFTER 03Z FRIDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO 15 TO 25
KTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35 KTS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...BUTTLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
409 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
A DYNAMIC AND SPRING-LIKE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
DENSE FOG AHEAD OF IT AND STRONG WINDS IN ITS WAKE FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS OF 21 UTC...A STRONG SURFACE LOW IS DEEPENING IN SOUTHEASTERN
MT WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE NEAR 986 MB SOUTHEAST OF BILLINGS. THE
12 UTC GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THIS LOW WILL MOVE EAST
ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW...HIGH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT ON LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S F BENEATH A STOUT INVERSION ALOFT THANKS
TO ANOMALOUS LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WARMTH IS CONTRIBUTING TO A VERY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. VISIBILITIES FROM
NEAR NEW SALEM NORTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ND AS
OF MID AFTERNOON ARE STILL BELOW 1/2SM IN MANY AREAS...AND WITH
THE FAVORABLE SETUP AND CONSISTENT HRRR AND ESRL-HRRR MODEL RUNS
SHOWING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG THIS EVENING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST ND WE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. THE ADVISORY GOES THROUGH 06 UTC...EXCEPT OVER NORTH
CENTRAL ND WHERE WE RAN IT UNTIL 12 UTC. WE ACTUALLY EXPECT FOG
TO LIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST AND THE COLD
FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT FOLLOWS SUITE AND
INCREASES BOUNDARY LAYER SUBSIDENCE.
WE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE TYPE OR AREAL EXTENT OF WIND HEADLINES
WITH THIS ISSUANCE. HOWEVER...WE DID ADJUST THE START TIMES SUCH
THAT THE WIND ADVISORY AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS OVER SOUTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL ND START AT 03 UTC TONIGHT...AND THE WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL ND STARTS BETWEEN 06 AND 08 UTC.
THAT MOVE WAS BASED ON INITIAL PRESSURE RISES THAT WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE LOW EASTWARD TONIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE AN EXPANSION OF THE
HIGH WIND WARNING A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND EAST MAY BE NEEDED IF
ISALLOBARIC FORCING OVERCOMES NOCTURNAL STABILIZING EFFECTS AS
RECENT RAP ITERATIONS HAVE SHOWN 8-10 MB/3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS ALL OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL ND TONIGHT. WINDS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE STRONG AREA-WIDE DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.
THE 12 UTC GFS WAS A BIT STRONGER WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS THAN
THE 12 UTC NAM AND SUGGESTS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE HIGH WIND
WARNING AGAIN MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND TO
THE EAST...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DO THAT YET AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS EVEN FROM THE GFS SUGGEST THE LOW LEVELS MAY
NOT BE COMPLETELY DRY ADIABATIC.
WE DO EXPECT A BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
WITH THE STRONG SHORTWAVE...BUT THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST IT WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN IN MOST AREAS. WE ARE STILL CARRYING SOME
LOW-END CHANCES OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN NORTH CENTRAL ND...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN ANY IMPACTS FROM THAT IS LOW GIVEN A RATHER NARROW
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ROADS TO BE CLOSE TO
OR ABOVE 32 F IN MANY AREAS.
FINALLY...THE STRONG WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL
YIELD SOME CONCERNS FOR FIRE WEATHER IN SOUTHWEST ND...AS NOTED
IN THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION TYPES IS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING...BUT SHOULD TURN TO ALL SNOW BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN
AN INCH EXPECTED.
AFTER SUNDAY COOLER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL TAKE OVER.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...LINGERING AREAS OF FOG AND WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WERE IN PLACE OVER ALL SITES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KBIS. EXPECT SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD LOWER CEILINGS TO
REMAIN OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THAT BEING SAID...GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY
FOR SOME MVFR/VFR CEILINGS OVER KISN/KDIK LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN SPREAD LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST...LOWERING CEILINGS ONCE AGAIN. BEHIND
THE LOW PRESSURE ON FRIDAY MORNING...CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR AT
ALL SITES WITH GUSTY NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY GUST FROM 30-45 KNOTS AT TIMES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING FROM 50 TO 60 MPH FRIDAY
WILL POSE A CONCERN FOR WIND-DRIVEN FIRES...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ND WHERE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES MAY REACH 30 PERCENT.
IF PRECIPITATION IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND IS LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH TONIGHT AND THE WFAS...NFDRS FIRE DANGER RATING ENDS UP
IN THE HIGH OR GREATER CATEGORY...A RED FLAG WARNING COULD BE
NEEDED WITH THE MORNING FORECAST RELEASE. THE AREA OF PRIMARY
CONCERN IS ACROSS SLOPE...BOWMAN...AND ADAMS COUNTIES.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR
NDZ001-002-009-010-019-020-034-035-042.
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST
/5 PM MST/ FRIDAY FOR NDZ019-020-034-035-042-045-046.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
/5 PM MST/ FRIDAY FOR NDZ017-018-031>033-041.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-
021>023.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ003>005-
010>013-021>023-025.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ036-037-047-
048-050-051.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR
NDZ040-043-044.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...ZH
FIRE WEATHER...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1224 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
INCREASED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE JAMES VALLEY FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...AS WINDS AT THE SURFACE WERE GUSTING OVER 20 KNOTS.
MODELS INDICATE STRENGTHENING H925 AND H850 WINDS OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS WHICH IS TRANSLATING TO THE SURFACE. OTHERWISE LOW CLOUDS
AND AREAS OF FOG REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN VARYING QUITE A BIT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...RANGING FROM 1/2 MILE TO BETTER THAN 6 AT
TIMES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 917 PM CST WED FEB 17 2016
FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE HAVE INCREASED FOG COVERAGE WITH VARIOUS
LOCATIONS REPORTING REDUCED VISIBILITIES OVER THE AREA. HAVE ALSO
EXPANDED CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE AREA AS MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUES TO KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 PM CST WED FEB 17 2016
PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH PATCHY FOG OVER THE AREA.
LOWEST VISIBILITIES REMAIN ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF RETREATING
LOW CLOUD COVER STRETCHING FROM DICKINSON TO TIOGA. EXPECT THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE WITH LOW CLOUDS DOING A VERY SLOW RETRACTION
TOWARDS THE EAST THIS EVENING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST WED FEB 17 2016
PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF A MILD THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LOWER ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE
VERY FAVORABLE FOR STRATUS MAINTENANCE AND DEVELOPMENT THANKS TO A
STOUT AND STRENGTHENING INVERSION ALOFT WITH MILD...SOUTHERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW THAT WILL ACCESS DEWPOINTS WHICH AVERAGE 30 F UPSTREAM
AS OF MID AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST
GIVEN EXPECTED BUILD-DOWN OF THE STRATUS...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE NEAR-GROUND LAYER MAY BE TOO TURBULENT FOR DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT OWING TO SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 15 KT WITHIN 1000 FT OF
THE SURFACE. THE 15 TO 19 UTC HRRR AND ESRL-HRRR ITERATIONS ON THE
OTHER HAND SIMULATE SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT...SO WE WILL WATCH
THIS SCENARIO CLOSELY EVEN THOUGH WE BELIEVE THE PROBABILITY OF
ANYTHING MORE THAN TRANSIENT SUB-3/4SM VISIBILITIES IS RATHER LOW.
WE CHOSE TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE
FORECAST OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL ND TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN
RESPECT TO THE DEEPENING MOIST LAYER BENEATH THE INVERSION SEEN ON
MODEL-DERIVED FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE 12 UTC GFS DEEPENS THE MOIST
LAYER SUFFICIENTLY TO GENERATE LIGHT QPF IN ITS SIMULATION ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL ND BETWEEN 06 AND 12 UTC...WHICH IS
SUGGESTIVE OF A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF BONAFIDE LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN NEAR THE PEAK OF THE WARM-ADVECTIVE REGIME. HOWEVER...THAT IS
AN OUTLIER SOLUTION...AND FORECAST OMEGA FIELDS FROM BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM SUGGEST VERTICAL MOTION IN THE STRATUS LAYER MAY BE WEAK.
WE THUS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE RISK
EVEN THOUGH IT WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO STILL INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A VERY MILD AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE IN
ADVANCE OF A STRONG 500-MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LOW CLOUDS MAY HOLD BACK HEATING WHERE
THEY REMAIN THICK ENOUGH THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES
AT 850 MB OF +13 TO +15 C IN SOUTHWEST ND...HIGHS WILL LIKELY HIT
60 F IN PLACES LIKE BOWMAN...WITH WIDESPREAD 40S AND 50S F SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST WED FEB 17 2016
THE LONG TERM APPEARS ACTIVE WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE MAGIC FREEZING THRESHOLD AND
THEREFORE A MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW APPEARS POSSIBLE.
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW APPEAR THE MORE FAVORABLE
PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THE MORNING AND EVENING
HOURS OF FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...CHANGING OVER TO MAINLY
RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOONS. ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ARE
EXPECTED ANY GIVEN DAY...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
A CLIPPER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY. THIS
CLIPPER MAY BRING SOME HIGH WINDS TO THE REGION. MIXING WEST
WINDS...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE PRESSURE RISES COULD
PRODUCE WINDS AROUND 50 MPH. IF TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
PRESENCE OF THESE FEATURES THEN A WIND ADVISORY APPEARS
LIKELY...WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING POSSIBLE. DECIDED TO WITHHOLD
ISSUING A HIGH WIND WATCH TODAY AS THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE PRESSURE RISES AND MIXING DOWN OF
MID-LEVEL WINDS AND HIGHER WINDS AREN`T EXPECTED FOR ANOTHER 48
HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
WIDESPREAD LIFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THURSDAY
MORNING. BY THURSDAY MID-DAY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHILE MOST REMAINING AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE IFR TO MVFR CIGS. AROUND/AFT 00Z CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR AT
KISN. KBIS TO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A SHORT TIME AROUND 00Z-03Z THEN
BACK DOWN TO MVFR/IFR. LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD A CLIPPER SYSTEM OUT
OF ALBERTA APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND STRONG WINDS IN THE
WARM SECTOR BEGIN ALOFT AT KISN/KDIK/KBIS...AND ADDED MENTION OF
WIND SHEAR ALOFT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
803 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE UPDATE WITH REDUCING POPS IN THE
EASTERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. RADAR IS NEARLY CLEAR OVER THE
AREA BUT A FEW ECHOES HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR SANDUSKY. SOME CLOUDS
HAVE INCREASED FROM TOL TO LAKE MICHIGAN AND THESE WILL SPREAD
EAST. A RATHER HIGH WIND GUST NEAR TOL MAY HAVE BEEN PRODUCED BY
VIRGA OR OTHER DOWNDRAFT. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE ON A DIMINISHING
TREND NOW THAT DIURNAL COOLING AND COOL ADVECTION ARE TAKING
PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. DEEP MIXING APPEARS TO HAVE
DIMINISHED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL AREAS OF CONCERN FOR TONIGHT. FIRST ARE THE WINDS.
CURRENT WIND GUSTS REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NW AND NC OHIO
AS WELL AS ERIE PA. SHORT TERM MODELS HRRR AND RUC SHOW THE PEAK
WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON DECREASING THIS EVENING. CURRENT
ADVISORY RUNS UNTIL 9PM. I BELIEVE WINDS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY A
FEW HOURS BEFORE 9PM BUT I WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT ADVISORY END
TIME ALONE. THE MODELS SHOWS A WELL MIXED LAYER UNTIL ~ 00Z. THE
12Z MODEL RUN SHOWS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE OVER NE OH AND NW PA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I AM
NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT IN THE EXTENT OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
OVER THAT AREA AND I AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE IT. I WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS OVER NE OH AND NW PA THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO RISE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE WARM
FRONT PUSHES NORTH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AFTER OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A FAST ZONAL FLOW DEVELOP ON SATURDAY. A SHORT
WAVE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT I DO NOT EXPECT
ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
ARE DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FOR SATURDAY. THE NAM BEING MUCH COOLER
THAN THE GFS...UP TO A 10 DEGREE DIFFERENCE. I WILL SHAVE A FEW
DEGREES OFF MAV GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENCE IN THE
MODELS. A SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND TRACK
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND NAM DIFFER
WITH THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS THE AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION. THE GFS IS THE DRIEST OF THE TWO MODELS AND HAS
VIRTUALLY NO PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM IS WET
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS HIGH CHANCE
POPS OVER THE THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY. I AM GOING TO START TRENDING
THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION BUT I WILL NOT TOTALLY
REMOVE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THIS TIME AS THE NAM REMAINS
WET.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD HOLD ON LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
AREA DRY INTO TUE MORNING BUT BY LATE TUE MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE
RAIN OR SNOW FROM A SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH MAY SPREAD NORTH INTO THE
CWA. THE UPPER TROUGH APPEARS TOO DEEP TO NOT CAUSE SNOW TO GET
PULLED NNW OVER A GOOD PART OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH A
TRANSITION TO MORE OF A LAKE EFFECT EVENT FOR THU AND FRI. THERE
ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE SMALLER FEATURES WHICH CREATE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY BUT IN GENERAL THE MODELS DO SHOW THE POLAR
VORTEX SETTING UP CAMP AROUND THE HUDSON BAY AREA FOR THE REST OF
THE MONTH. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A SHIFT BACK TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AND DECENT CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FROM THU ON.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES WILL LIFT OUT
TONIGHT. THE STRONG WINDS OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND KERI WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH SATURDAY. VFR CLOUDS
050-060 ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...A BRIEF SHOWER POSSIBLE AROUND KERI THE FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER
SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. WIDESPREAD NON VFR
TUE INTO WED.
&&
.MARINE...
STILL THINK THE WARM AIR TEMPS RELATIVE TO LAKE ERIE`S ICY
WATERS SHOULD KEEP WINDS AT 30 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT THRU SAT AS A
COLD FRONT CAUSES WINDS TO VEER FROM SOUTH TO WEST. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATER SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THRU THE LAKE THEN PICK BACK UP A LITTLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON
AFTER A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY AND WINDS LINE UP OUT OF THE
NORTH. WINDS VEER TO NE FOR TUE AND WED AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH SHIFTS INTO MAINE. LOW PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE GULF
AND HEAD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY WED WHICH WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND THUS THE WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES
CREATE UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-006>009-
017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001-002.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...ADAMS/OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
646 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SEVERAL AREAS OF CONCERN FOR TONIGHT. FIRST ARE THE WINDS.
CURRENT WIND GUSTS REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NW AND NC OHIO
AS WELL AS ERIE PA. SHORT TERM MODELS HRRR AND RUC SHOW THE PEAK
WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON DECREASING THIS EVENING. CURRENT
ADVISORY RUNS UNTIL 9PM. I BELIEVE WINDS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY A
FEW HOURS BEFORE 9PM BUT I WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT ADVISORY END
TIME ALONE. THE MODELS SHOWS A WELL MIXED LAYER UNTIL ~ 00Z. THE
12Z MODEL RUN SHOWS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE OVER NE OH AND NW PA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I AM
NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT IN THE EXTENT OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
OVER THAT AREA AND I AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE IT. I WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS OVER NE OH AND NW PA THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO RISE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE WARM
FRONT PUSHES NORTH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AFTER OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A FAST ZONAL FLOW DEVELOP ON SATURDAY. A SHORT
WAVE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT I DO NOT EXPECT
ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
ARE DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FOR SATURDAY. THE NAM BEING MUCH COOLER
THAN THE GFS...UP TO A 10 DEGREE DIFFERENCE. I WILL SHAVE A FEW
DEGREES OFF MAV GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENCE IN THE
MODELS. A SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND TRACK
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND NAM DIFFER
WITH THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS THE AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION. THE GFS IS THE DRIEST OF THE TWO MODELS AND HAS
VIRTUALLY NO PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM IS WET
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS HIGH CHANCE
POPS OVER THE THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY. I AM GOING TO START TRENDING
THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION BUT I WILL NOT TOTALLY
REMOVE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THIS TIME AS THE NAM REMAINS
WET.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD HOLD ON LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
AREA DRY INTO TUE MORNING BUT BY LATE TUE MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE
RAIN OR SNOW FROM A SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH MAY SPREAD NORTH INTO THE
CWA. THE UPPER TROUGH APPEARS TOO DEEP TO NOT CAUSE SNOW TO GET
PULLED NNW OVER A GOOD PART OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH A
TRANSITION TO MORE OF A LAKE EFFECT EVENT FOR THU AND FRI. THERE
ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE SMALLER FEATURES WHICH CREATE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY BUT IN GENERAL THE MODELS DO SHOW THE POLAR
VORTEX SETTING UP CAMP AROUND THE HUDSON BAY AREA FOR THE REST OF
THE MONTH. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A SHIFT BACK TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AND DECENT CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FROM THU ON.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES WILL LIFT OUT
TONIGHT. THE STRONG WINDS OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND KERI WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH SATURDAY. VFR CLOUDS
050-060 ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...A BRIEF SHOWER POSSIBLE AROUND KERI THE FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER
SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. WIDESPREAD NON VFR
TUE INTO WED.
&&
.MARINE...
STILL THINK THE WARM AIR TEMPS RELATIVE TO LAKE ERIE`S ICY
WATERS SHOULD KEEP WINDS AT 30 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT THRU SAT AS A
COLD FRONT CAUSES WINDS TO VEER FROM SOUTH TO WEST. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATER SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THRU THE LAKE THEN PICK BACK UP A LITTLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON
AFTER A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY AND WINDS LINE UP OUT OF THE
NORTH. WINDS VEER TO NE FOR TUE AND WED AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH SHIFTS INTO MAINE. LOW PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE GULF
AND HEAD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY WED WHICH WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND THUS THE WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES
CREATE UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-006>009-
017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001-002.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...ADAMS/OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NORMAN OK
529 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
.AVIATION...
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR THIS MORNING AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUES TODAY. MORNING SOUNDING FROM NORMAN
INDICATES 50 KNOT WINDS AT ABOUT FL023... SO WIND SHEAR WILL BE
STRONG UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING WHEN LOW-LEVELS BECOME MORE MIXED
AND SURFACE WINDS INCREASE. WIDESPREAD 25-30 KNOTS SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS OF 35-40 KNOTS. TODAY WILL ALSO BE A DAY OF
POTENTIAL WILDFIRES... SO THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES OF VISIBILITIES
RESTRICTED BY SMOKE IF A WILDFIRE SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR AN AIRPORT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN ISSUE AS EXPECTED IS THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE TROF IN
THE HIGH PLAINS DEEPENS AND INCREASES PRESSURE GRADIENT. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EVEN SLOWER TO RETURN THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. ONE
MOISTURE AXIS IS POKING UP THROUGH WEST TEXAS TOWARD LUBBOCK WITH
MID TO UPPER 40S DEWPOINTS. THE SECOND AXIS IS DEVELOPING UP
THROUGH SAN ANTONIO WITH LOWER 50S DEWPOINTS NOW REACHING
LAMPASAS AND GEORGETOWN TEXAS. MORNING SOUNDINGS WILL GIVE BETTER
IDEA OF MOISTURE DEPTH... BUT RECENT HISTORY AND CURRENT TRENDS
WOULD SUGGEST LOWER DEWPOINTS THAN SYNOPTIC MODELS PROGS. EVEN
THE HRRR AND RAP WOULD BRING SOME DEWPOINTS NEAR 50 INTO OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON... BUT THAT SEEMS LIKE A STRETCH. INITIALIZED
DEWPOINT GRIDS WITH RAP... BUT THEN GENERALLY LOWERED VALUES MORE
/EXCEPT FOR INCREASING THEM SOMEWHAT IN THE EAST THIS MORNING
GIVEN CURRENT ANALYSIS/. COORDINATION YESTERDAY WITH BOTH OKLAHOMA
AND TEXAS FORESTRY DEPARTMENTS INDICATE A DESIRE TO HOIST THE RED
FLAG TODAY AREAWIDE GIVEN THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS AND FUEL
LOADING... DESPITE RH VALUES THAT MAY NOT QUITE REACH CRITERIA IN
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS. EVENING SHIFT ALREADY UPGRADED
AND WILL CONTINUE THIS WARNING. ALSO WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT
WIND ADVISORY AS WELL.
AGAIN... ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL
BE SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 78 57 74 54 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 81 55 76 52 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 83 57 80 56 / 0 0 10 0
GAGE OK 86 49 74 44 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 78 55 73 49 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 75 58 75 58 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ004>048-050>052.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ004>042-044>046-050.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ083>090.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
FIX WORDS THAT HAD BEEN CUT OFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
433 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN ISSUE AS EXPECTED IS THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE TROF IN
THE HIGH PLAINS DEEPENS AND INCREASES PRESSURE GRADIENT. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EVEN SLOWER TO RETURN THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. ONE
MOISTURE AXIS IS POKING UP THROUGH WEST TEXAS TOWARD LUBBOCK WITH
MID TO UPPER 40S DEWPOINTS. THE SECOND AXIS IS DEVELOPING UP
THROUGH SAN ANTONIO WITH LOWER 50S DEWPOINTS NOW REACHING
LAMPASAS AND GEORGETOWN TEXAS. MORNING SOUNDINGS WILL GIVE BETTER
IDEA OF MOISTURE DEPTH... BUT RECENT HISTORY AND CURRENT TRENDS
WOULD SUGGEST LOWER DEWPOINTS THAN SYNOPTIC MODELS PROGS. EVEN
THE HRRR AND RAP WOULD BRING SOME DEWPOINTS NEAR 50 INTO OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON... BUT THAT SEEMS LIKE A STRETCH. INITIALIZED
DEWPOINT GRIDS WITH RAP... BUT THEN GENERALLY LOWERED VALUES MORE
/EXCEPT FOR INCREASING THEM SOMEWHAT IN THE EAST THIS MORNING
GIVEN CURRENT ANALYSIS/. COORDINATION YESTERDAY WITH BOTH OKLAHOMA
AND TEXAS FORESTRY DEPARTMENTS INDICATE A DESIRE TO HOIST THE RED
FLAG TODAY AREAWIDE GIVEN THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS AND FUEL
LOADING... DESPITE RH VALUES THAT MAY NOT QUITE REACH CRITERIA IN
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS. EVENING SHIFT ALREADY UPGRADED
AND WILL CONTINUE THIS WARNING. ALSO WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT
WIND ADVISORY AS WELL.
AGAIN... ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL
BE SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 78 57 74 54 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 81 55 76 52 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 83 57 80 56 / 0 0 10 0
GAGE OK 86 49 74 44 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 78 55 73 49 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 75 58 75 58 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ004>048-050>052.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ004>042-044>046-050.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ083>090.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1006 AM MST THU FEB 18 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 AM MST THU FEB 18 2016
SURFACE TROUGH AND STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCH ACROSS WESTERN INTO
CENTRAL SD. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE BECOMING GUSTY ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN WY...AND HAVE ISSUED A BLOWING DUST ALERT FOR THE
POWDER RIVER BASIN THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME GUSTY WINDS COULD MIX DOWN TO THE RAPID CITY AREA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO MAY ISSUE AN AIR QUALITY ALERT THERE AS
WELL. FOG HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SD...EXCEPT
ALONG THE ND BORDER. TEMPS ARE RISING INTO THE 50S AND LOWER
60S...WITH 30S ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 351 AM MST THU FEB 18 2016
UPPER RIDGING SITS ACROSS THE CNTRL THIRD OF THE CONUS WITH THE MAIN
AXIS NOW CROSSING THE DAKOTAS. A TROUGH/CUT OFF LOW IS CENTERED
ALONG THE PAC NW COAST WITH A STRONG WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE ATTM.
SWRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS ACROSS NE
WY AND THE NRN FOOTHILLS OF THE BLKHLS. OBS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS HAVE
BEEN REPORTING VERY GUSTY WINDS WITH KSPF EVEN REACHING HIGH WIND
WARNING CRITERIA BRIEFLY. THESE DOWNSLOPING WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN
TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 60 DEGREES...WITH MANY OF THESE AREAS SEEING
A 15 DEGREE JUMP WITHIN MINUTES. STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL QUICKLY PUSH
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING...AND WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONG SWRLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION.
THIS WILL MAKE FOR AN UNUSUALLY WARM DAY TODAY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS
LIKELY BREAKING DAILY RECORD HIGHS. THE WAVE WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS
TO THE AREA THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NE WY THROUGH THE BLKHLS
AREA AND NW SD. HOWEVER WITH THE SPEED OF THE WAVE...THESE SHOWERS
WILL QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH. WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...COULD
EVEN SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. PRECIP WILL END LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE WAVE MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST. DRY WEATHER AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO MID 60S.
THE CONCERN OF THE DAY WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED. SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING ACROSS NE
WY AND THE BLKHLS AREA THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST PROFILES AND THE LATEST HRRR SHOW GUSTS REACHING 50 TO 60
MPH MORE TOWARD THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SINCE THE NRN BLKHLS ALREADY
HAS A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR DOWNSLOPING WINDS...WILL JUST EXTEND IT
OUT. AS THE WAVE CROSSES THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS
ARE SHOWING 50 TO EVEN 60 KT WINDS DEVELOPING WITHIN 5KFT OF THE
SURFACE ACROSS NE WY AND MUCH OF WRN SD. SO WILL GO WITH A HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE BIT OF A
LULL SETTING UP LATE TONIGHT SO WINDS COULD DROP TO BELOW
CRITERIA...HOWEVER A SURFACE LOW CROSSING SRN CANADA FRIDAY WILL
REINFORCE THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY
STRONG WINDS AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST...SO THINK AREAS LIKE NE WY AND THE BLKHLS WILL SEE WARNING
CRITERIA WINDS END BY MIDDAY FRIDAY...WHILE THE WRN SD PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE STRONG WINDS UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 351 AM MST THU FEB 18 2016
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH TRANSITION TO AMPLIFIED WEST COAST RIDGE AND BROAD
TROF FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY/MONDAY. AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY MID WEEK...ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SUGGEST MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURES AS LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE BACKS INTO FORECAST AREA. WITH LACK OF DECENT
SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE AREA...WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 952 AM MST THU FEB 18 2016
LINGERING IFR/LIFR FOG NEAR THE ND BORDER SHOULD ERODE
BY EARLY AFTN. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
VERY GUSTY SW/W WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
TODAY...THEN STRONG NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT BEHIND A
CDFNT...WITH WDSPRD GUSTS OVER 50KTS POSSIBLE. -SHRA AND POSSIBLE A
FEW -TSRA LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...BUT CIGS SHOULD BE HIGH BASED.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON MST FRIDAY FOR SDZ024.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MST FRIDAY FOR
SDZ001-002-012>014-026-027-030>032-041>044-073-074.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
SDZ046-047-049.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON MST FRIDAY FOR SDZ028-029.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST FRIDAY FOR SDZ025-072.
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON MST FRIDAY FOR WYZ057.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON MST FRIDAY FOR WYZ054>056-058-071.
&&
$$
UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
351 AM MST THU FEB 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 351 AM MST THU FEB 18 2016
UPPER RIDGING SITS ACROSS THE CNTRL THIRD OF THE CONUS WITH THE MAIN
AXIS NOW CROSSING THE DAKOTAS. A TROUGH/CUT OFF LOW IS CENTERED
ALONG THE PAC NW COAST WITH A STRONG WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE ATTM.
SWRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS ACROSS NE
WY AND THE NRN FOOTHILLS OF THE BLKHLS. OBS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS HAVE
BEEN REPORTING VERY GUSTY WINDS WITH KSPF EVEN REACHING HIGH WIND
WARNING CRITERIA BRIEFLY. THESE DOWNSLOPING WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN
TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 60 DEGREES...WITH MANY OF THESE AREAS SEEING
A 15 DEGREE JUMP WITHIN MINUTES. STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL QUICKLY PUSH
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING...AND WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONG SWRLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION.
THIS WILL MAKE FOR AN UNUSUALLY WARM DAY TODAY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS
LIKELY BREAKING DAILY RECORD HIGHS. THE WAVE WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS
TO THE AREA THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NE WY THROUGH THE BLKHLS
AREA AND NW SD. HOWEVER WITH THE SPEED OF THE WAVE...THESE SHOWERS
WILL QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH. WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...COULD
EVEN SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. PRECIP WILL END LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE WAVE MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST. DRY WEATHER AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO MID 60S.
THE CONCERN OF THE DAY WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED. SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING ACROSS NE
WY AND THE BLKHLS AREA THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST PROFILES AND THE LATEST HRRR SHOW GUSTS REACHING 50 TO 60
MPH MORE TOWARD THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SINCE THE NRN BLKHLS ALREADY
HAS A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR DOWNSLOPING WINDS...WILL JUST EXTEND IT
OUT. AS THE WAVE CROSSES THE ARE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS
ARE SHOWING 50 TO EVEN 60 KT WINDS DEVELOPING WITHIN 5KFT OF THE
SURFACE ACROSS NE WY AND MUCH OF WRN SD. SO WILL GO WITH A HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE BIT OF A
LULL SETTING UP LATE TONIGHT SO WINDS COULD DROP TO BELOW
CRITERIA...HOWEVER A SURFACE LOW CROSSING SRN CANADA FRIDAY WILL
REINFORCE THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY
STRONG WINDS AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST...SO THINK AREAS LIKE NE WY AND THE BLKHLS WILL SEE WARNING
CRITERIA WINDS END BY MIDDAY FRIDAY...WHILE THE WRN SD PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE STRONG WINDS UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 351 AM MST THU FEB 18 2016
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH TRANSION TO AMPLIFIED WEST COAST RIDGE AND BROAD TROF
FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE AVEARAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY/MONDAY. AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY MID WEEK...ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SUGGEST MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURES AS LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE BACKS INTO FORECAST AREA. WITH LACK OF DECENT
SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE AREA...WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 351 AM MST THU FEB 18 2016
LIFR CIGS/VSBY WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA...MAINLY ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY. GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR OVER PORTINOS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE BLACK
HILLS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE FOR KRAP THROUGH MID
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON MST FRIDAY FOR SDZ024.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MST FRIDAY FOR
SDZ001-002-012>014-026-027-030>032-041>044-073-074.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
SDZ046-047-049.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON MST FRIDAY FOR
SDZ028-029.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST FRIDAY FOR SDZ025-072.
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON MST FRIDAY FOR WYZ057.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON MST FRIDAY FOR
WYZ054>056-058-071.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
309 PM EST THU FEB 18 2016
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)...
QUIET WEATHER WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE THEME IN
THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE
SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA. THANKS
TO HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND PLENTY OF INSOLATION...TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND PLATEAU BEFORE SUNRISE...LOWS IN THESE
LOCATIONS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWS 40S. FURTHER TO
THE NORTH AND EAST...CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 30S.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST. HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND A CONTINUED
SUPPLY OF SUNNY SKIES WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S.
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD...ALOFT WE ARE UNDER A ZONAL FLOW
TO SLIGHT RIDGING OVER THE AREA...AND AT THE SURFACE WE HAVE A
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AS THE SURFACE HIGH SITS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. THE NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA
AROUND SUNDAY EVENING...AND WE STAY IN THE COOL AIR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE
SHORTWAVE INDUCING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY ABOUT
TUESDAY...THEN THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST UP
THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN WE ARE ALREADY GETTING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE AREA WILL KEEP SOME
POPS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST. GOING A LITTLE BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR NEXT THURSDAY...AS THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL BE PULLING OUT BY THEN. THIS WILL LEAVE SOME <20 POPS
IN THE NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
THE MODELS SEEM TO BE GETTING WARMER AND WARMER NOW FOR THE SYSTEM
NEXT WEEK...AND LEAVE THE TROUGH AS AN OPEN AND WEAKER WAVE. SO
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WINTRY PRECIP IS IN THIS FORECAST FOR THE
SYSTEM NEXT WEEK AS OF NOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 39 63 47 62 / 0 0 20 30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 35 61 46 59 / 0 0 20 40
OAK RIDGE, TN 35 63 46 59 / 0 0 20 30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 31 58 40 56 / 0 0 20 30
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
MA/GM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1102 PM CST WED FEB 17 2016
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF CYCLE/
LOW CIGS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND THIS
AREA WILL SHIFT NORTH AND EXPAND ACROSS ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. THE
CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO IFR AND LIFR PAST 08Z THROUGH 15-
16Z ACROSS THE REGION. SREF AND HRRR OUTPUT SUGGESTS A BUILD DOWN OF
THE LOWER CIGS TO PATCHY AND AREAS OF FOG THAT WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO 2-4 SM. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE ESCARPMENT BETWEEN KSAT
AND KDRT COULD EXPERIENCE VLIFR AT TIMES BUT WILL BE LOW PROBABILITY
AT THE ACTUAL TERMINAL SITES OF KSAT/KSSF.
A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR THROUGH MID MORNING HOURS THURSDAY
BUT LOW CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON LONGER THEN PREVIOUS DAYS. ALL SITES
SHOULD MIX OUT TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO
BECOME GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH AT 15-20 KT WITH SOME GUSTS HAS HIGH AS
30 KT GIVEN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG VERTICAL MIXING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 PM CST WED FEB 17 2016/
EVENING UPDATE...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WX GRID TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS OF FOG
ALONG THE ESCARPMENT. MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
STRONG BUT WINDS MAY STAY HIGH ENOUGH TO PROHIBIT MUCH DENSE FOG.
THAT BEING SAID...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF AREAS VS PATCHY WILL BE
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ESCARPMENT PERIPHERY NORTH OF SAN ANTONIO.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER FORECAST UPDATES WERE NEEDED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CST WED FEB 17 2016/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
MOIST AIR ADVECTION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. THE
INCREASED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS ALL AREAS. WE ALSO EXPECT PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TONIGHT
INTO MID-MORNING THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MIXING WILL
DISSIPATE THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ON THURSDAY...LEAVING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS ALONG WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL REMAIN DOMINANT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO SHOW SOME FAST MOVING
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH TEXAS ON SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN LOW IN THIS PATTERN AND WE/LL ONLY MENTION A 20%
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. WE DID INCLUDE A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND PORTIONS OF
THE HILL COUNTRY AS THE GFS SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING IN DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE COLD FRONT APPEARS
TO SLOW IT/S SOUTHWARD PROGRESS ON MONDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS TO NORTHWESTERLY. WITH A BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AND AN
INCREASINGLY ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WE/LL MENTION A 20-50%
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A REINFORCING
SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S.
PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ON
TUESDAY AND KEEP ANY RAIN CHANCES LIMITED TO AREAS GENERALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPEAR FAIRLY LOW AT
THIS TIME AND WILL KEEP AMOUNTS AT OR BELOW ONE QUARTER INCH.
ON TUESDAY...GUSTY NORTH WINDS SPREAD ACROSS ALL AREAS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS DRY WEATHER RETURNS TO THE
REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 75 53 78 60 81 / 0 0 - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 75 47 79 57 79 / 0 0 - - 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 76 50 80 56 80 / 0 0 - - 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 75 49 77 56 79 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 82 56 80 56 82 / 0 0 - 0 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 50 77 58 79 / 0 0 - - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 79 51 81 53 84 / 0 - - - 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 76 49 79 56 80 / 0 0 - - 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 75 50 80 60 79 / 0 0 - - 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 53 79 57 81 / 0 0 - - 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 79 52 81 56 82 / 0 0 - - 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...ALLEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1144 PM EST WED FEB 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS INTO THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT AND WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON
THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 840 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING WITH A MOIST LAYER UNDER THE INVERSION ALOFT BETWEEN
THE SURFACE AND 8H. THIS WITHIN A LAYER OF DECENT NW FLOW AHEAD OF
A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY THAT WILL BASICALLY
DISSIPATE CROSSING THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
HAVE SEEN JUST ENOUGH LIFT UNDER THE UPSLOPE FLOW TO PRODUCE A FEW
SMALL BANDS OF FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEST BUT QUITE
LIGHT/SPOTTY AT THIS POINT. THUS HAVE INCLUDED SOME ADDED LOW POPS
OUT TOWARD THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NW NORTH
CAROLINA UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT PER THE EARLIER 4KM NAM OUTPUT.
EXPECT MORE DRYING TO DEVELOP FROM THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION AND ADDED SUBSIDENCE
SLOWLY ACTS TO DIMINISH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER BEFORE
THIS OCCURS MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS SPILL OUT EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE GIVEN THE DECENT NW JET WHILE STILL EXPECT THE LOW DECK TO
PERSIST FAR WEST A BIT LONGER. THEREFORE BUMPED UP CLOUDS SOME
MAINLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WESTWARD.
LINGERING CLOUDS AND MIXING MAY ALSO ACT TO HOLD TEMPS UP AS THE
LATEST LAMP QUITE A BIT WARMER PROVIDED CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE.
SINCE THINK MORE BREAKS MAY DEVELOP WONT RAISE LOWS MORE THAN A
CATEGORY ESPCLY GIVEN GRADUAL FILTERING IN OF WEAK COLD ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 200 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
A SHORTWAVE LOCATED IN KENTUCKY AROUND 18Z WILL ROTATE EAST
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
THE UPPER TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO PIVOT NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...ALLOWING SOME RIDGING AND RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS. SFC
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
HIRESW-ARW-E...RNK- WRFARW...GFS AND NAM SHOWED ISOLATED SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THE ECMWF...RAP AND HRRR ARE
LESS IMPRESSED FOR ACTIVITY. FOR TONIGHT...WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN AN INCH. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF GREENBRIER COUNTY OF WEST VIRGINIA.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 20S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
ANY LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES SHOULD BE
GONE THURSDAY MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SOME LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MAY STILL PERSIST
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WHEN THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM EST WEDNESDAY
A CLASSIC WEDGE WILL TAKE RESIDENCE OVER THE EAST COAST THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE MID ATLANTIC PORTION OF THE WEDGE WILL
DRIFT OUT TO SEA AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE TRACKS EAST OF
THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A WEAK
COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THIS WEDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US WHILE BLOCKING THE
GULF. THE FRONT COMING ACROSS EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE MOISTURE
STARVED WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HITTING THE WESTERN SLOPES
AND ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. ZONAL FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
BEING AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE M/U 40S WEST TO L50S EAST.
DESPITE THE PASSING OF A WEAK FRONT SATURDAY
MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH
WIDESPREAD 50S ACROSS THE AREA TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM EST WEDNESDAY
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WILL REMAIN SEPARATED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL TRACK EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEASTERN US. ACROSS THE SOUTH...A
STALLED BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RAIN FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO SOUTH
CAROLINA. FOR THE IMMEDIATE AREA...A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED FRONT
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY FALL ALONG WESTERN SLOPES...DRY ELSEWHERE.
WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
50S AND 60S.
ON MONDAY...THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL SEND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM AND TRACK ALONG
THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT
WITH TIMING OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE MONDAY EVENING. THE STRENGTH OF
THE WEDGE WILL DEPEND ON WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP TO EXPECT OVERNIGHT.
THE WEDGE MOVES OUT QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING RETURNING TO RAIN BY
THE AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IT
BECOMES NEGATIVE-TILTED WITH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TRACKING EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE COASTAL PIEDMONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR ALL PRECIPITATION TO STAY
LIQUID. THE FRONT WILL PASS TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALL PRECIP
SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1135 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
WEAK PUSH OF LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ON NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO CREATE PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS OVER THE WEST OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME OF THIS CANOPY SPILLING OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE BUT
MAINLY IN VFR FASHION. COULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT AT TIMES AS
CLOUD BASES SCATTER OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT OVERALL SUB- VFR FROM
KBCB WESTWARD FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. ANY SNOW SHOWER BANDS ALSO
LOOK QUITE ISOLATED BUT SINCE CONTINUE TO FOCUS AROUND KBLF ADDED
IN A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR VSBYS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE BETTER
DRYING OCCURS LATE. OTHERWISE WILL LEAVE OUT ANY PRECIP ELSEWHERE
OVERNIGHT.
ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER AND TO THE NORTH OF
THE REGION ALLOWING DRYING FROM ALOFT TO GRADUALLY MIX OUT
RESIDUAL LOWER CIGS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER MAY TAKE UNTIL
LATE IN THE DAY TO BRING KBLF/KLWB BACK TO VFR...WITH SPOTS LIKE
KBCB IMPROVING BY MIDDAY. ELSEWHERE EXPECTING MAINLY VFR UNDER
SOME SHEARED HIGH LEVELS CLOUDS.
SHOULD SEE ALL SITES REMAIN VFR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AGAIN JUST
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REPOSITIONS TO OFF THE CAROLINAS ALLOWING RETURN SW FLOW
TO DEVELOP. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTH
ON SATURDAY. IT COULD SPARK SOME MOUNTAIN RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWER
CEILINGS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND SLIDE THROUGH
THE REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE SETTLING JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR INCLUDING
A FEW SHOWERS FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AND OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR GIVEN FUTURE
UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF THESE FEATURES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 815 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
STAGES ARE FALLING ON THE UPPER DAN RIVER FROM DANVILLE UPSTREAM
BUT CONTINUING TO SLOWLY RISE DOWNSTREAM. HOWEVER PACES ALONG THE
DAN IS EXPECTED TO CREST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LEVELS WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE UPWARD AT SOUTH BOSTON WITH A CREST DURING THURSDAY
MORNING. EXPECT MINOR FLOODING OF LOWLAND AREAS. STAGES ALSO
CONTINUE TO CLIMB ALONG THE LOWER ROANOKE RIVER AT RANDOLPH WHICH
WILL MAINLY IMPACT LOWLANDS AND SEVERAL ROADS NEAR THE RIVER.
RANDOLPH IS EXPECTED TO CREST OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE UNTIL LATE THURSDAY. THUS FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE
ROANOKE RIVER AT RANDOLPH AFFECTING CHARLOTTE AND HALIFAX
COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE DAN RIVER AT PACES AND SOUTH BOSTON
AFFECTING HALIFAX COUNTY. CHECK THE LATEST WBCFLSRNK FOR ADDED
DETAILS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...JH/KK
HYDROLOGY...KK/PC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
245 PM PST THU FEB 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL BRING
SHOWERS TO THE LOWLANDS AND WILL GIVE SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS. A
VIGOROUS FRONT WILL MOVE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING
RAIN...MOUNTAIN SNOW...AND LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS. SHOWERS WILL
END ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. THE WEATHER NEXT WEEK WILL BE MILD AND DRY EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON. RADARS ARE SHOWING SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
REMAINED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA NEAR THE DALLES ON THE COLUMBIA
RIVER. THE LATEST 18Z GFS HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH 0.3 TO 0.6 INCHES OF WATER IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CASCADES WHILE THE HRRR IS TRENDING A BIT DRIER
AND RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A BREAK FROM ABOUT SEATTLE SOUTHWARD IN
THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. WHILE MARGINAL...WILL MAINTAIN THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT.
A VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM NOW NEARING 135W WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA...MOVING ONTO THE COAST MIDDAY FRIDAY AND INTO THE CASCADES BY
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF MODERATE
RAINFALL IN THE LOWLANDS ALONG WITH BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS. SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE ABOUT 4000 FEET WILL
RANGE FROM 3 TO 8 INCHES IN THE OLYMPICS AROUND HURRICANE
RIDGE...AND IN THE CASCADES. ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS GOING IN THE
LOWLANDS AND WILL GIVE LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WEST SLOPES
OF THE OLYMPICS. THE 18Z GFS20 CONTINUES TO SHOW SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 8 INCHES IN THE CASCADES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN
THE NORTH CASCADES AND IN THE CASCADES OF KING AND PIERCE COUNTIES.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR ALL OF THE MOUNTAINS ON
FRIDAY...AND FOR THE CASCADES FRIDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND WILL BE MORE
LIKELY DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS LINGERING ONSHORE FLOW RELAXES.
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE RELATIVELY NICE CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS BOTH SHOW SUNDAYS FRONT MOVING IN
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. SO THE FORECAST WILL INDICATE
CLOUDS WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. ALBRECHT
.LONG TERM...OVERALL...LONG TERM MODELS ARE SHOWING NEXT WEEK TO BE
NICE WITH LONG WAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD OR NEARBY AND LOW LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW DOMINATING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LINGERING
SHOWERS MONDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW SLOWLY RELAXES AHEAD OF AN INCOMING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THEN CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE DRY AND MILD. TEMPERATURES IN THE
INTERIOR SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AND SOME
SUNSHINE...AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
A WEAKENING FRONT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THIS FRONT WILL
BE MOVING INTO A BUILDING LONG WAVE RIDGE...SO RAIN CHANCES WILL NOT
BE HIGH. STRONG UPPER RIDGING COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL GIVE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...DRY CONDITIONS...AND VERY MILD
WEATHER WITH LOWS ONLY REACHING THE 40S AND HIGHS AROUND 60 AS WE
MOVE INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK. ALBRECHT
&&
.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT THEN TURN
SOUTHERLY FRIDAY. THE AIR MASS IS COOL AND UNSTABLE GIVING SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THE SURFACE WINDS WILL TURN BRIEFLY ONSHORE THIS
EVENING...THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY LATE TONIGHT AS A FRONT APPROACHES
THE COAST.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS IN
SHOWERS. SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY THIS EVENING WITH SOME LETUP LATE
TONIGHT. RAIN WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING AND CEILINGS WILL FALL
DURING THE DAY.
KSEA...DISCUSSION ABOVE APPLIES. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10G15 KT EASING TO
4-8 KT BY 06Z. CHB
&&
.MARINE...THERE ARE STILL GUSTY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
OVER MOST OF THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT THAT
DISSIPATED OVER THE AREA TODAY. THESE WINDS WILL EASE A BIT TONIGHT.
A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE LIKELY ON THE COAST AND A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. THE REST OF
THE WATERS WILL HAVE AT LEAST ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS.
GALES ARE POSSIBLE BUT NOT CERTAIN AT THE STRAIT ENTRANCES AND OVER
THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS. THE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL LAST INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
WESTERLY FLOW DOWN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA MAY REACH GALE LEVELS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE COAST WITH THIS SYSTEM. SURFACE FLOW WILL TURN
OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. CHB
&&
.HYDROLOGY...FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BE PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND SNOW LEVELS WILL BE RATHER LOW. A TRANSITION TO A
DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ALBRECHT
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PST SATURDAY FOR CASCADES OF
PIERCE AND LEWIS COUNTIES.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM PST
SATURDAY FOR CASCADES OF SNOHOMISH AND KING COUNTIES-
CASCADES OF WHATCOM AND SKAGIT COUNTIES.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM PST SATURDAY
FOR OLYMPICS.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER
10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER
10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ADMIRALTY INLET-
EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS-PUGET SOUND
AND HOOD CANAL-WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
843 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.UPDATE...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK...NO SIGGY UPDATES. SKIES HAVE CLEARED...BUT
WE COULD SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPILL IN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A SHOT
OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. TEMPS WILL STABILIZE IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S BEFORE RISING SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS
THE BIG LOW PULLS OFF TO THE EAST.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 12-14Z
SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOOK
FOR THE WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE BIG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 4 AM TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LOOK FOR THE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016/
SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON HOW FAST THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY HOW WARM IT WILL BE TOMORROW.
THE CORE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES FOLLOWING THE BETTER PRESSURE RISES. 19.19Z RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOWS THE ENVIRONMENT DECOUPLING AROUND 00-01Z THIS EVENING WHICH
SHUTS DOWN THE WIND GUSTS. THINKING THAT THIS IS A BIT OPTIMISTIC
AND THAT THE GUSTS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT NOT BE IN THE
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD THIS
EVENING WHERE A DOWNGRADE TO AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...BUT WILL
LET THE EVENING SHIFT MONITOR CONDITIONS AND MAKE THAT DECISION.
CONSIDERED DROPPING IOWA/DANE COUNTIES FROM THE WARNING...BUT THE
HIGH SUSTAINED WINDS/GUSTS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE...SO WILL LET THEM STAY
IN THE WARNING FOR NOW.
HAVE GONE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC ON CLOUD COVER INTO THE EARLY
EVENING COMPARED TO THE SHORT TERM WRF GUIDANCE WHICH HAS MUCH OF
THE AREA CLEARED OUT BEFORE 00Z. THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS IS IN
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA/NORTHEAST IOWA AND SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE EARLY EVENING AS THE CLOSED LOW
QUICKLY PROPAGATES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
GOING INTO TOMORROW...IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
SUNNY WITH WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR MAKING IT BACK INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. SOME CLOUD COVER MAY MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH AS
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE STATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD TAG THE 50S IN THE SOUTHERN TWO
ROWS OF COUNTIES NEAR THE ILLINOIS BORDER.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITHIN NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN WI WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
OCCUR ACROSS SRN WI FOR SAT NT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
ON SUN BUT WITH MOST OF IT PASSING TO THE SOUTH THUS ONLY SMALL
CHANCES OF LGT SNOW/RAIN. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
FOR MON BUT DRY AND CLOUDY WX IS EXPECTED. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR MON AND MON NT. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS TIME.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EWD FOR TUE WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT. SWLY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BOOST
TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 40S. THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW
FOR TUE AFT INTO WED MORNING WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. POLAR
HIGH PRESSURE TO THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA LATER ON WED BUT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OUT OF THE NW FOR THU AND FRI.
THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH COOLING
TEMPS.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING TONIGHT BUT
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY TRACKS TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS BEFORE CLEARING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO TOMORROW...BUT DEFINITELY
NOT AS HIGH AS THEY WERE TODAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR
THEN UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHEN SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH THAT THESE
CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT TO THE TAF SITES THOUGH.
MARINE...
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE NEARSHORE
WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHMENT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS MAY STAY AT GALE FORCE OR AT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR A PERIOD AFTER THE STORM FORCE WINDS
END...BUT IT WOULD LIKELY ONLY BE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OVERNIGHT.
WINDS STAY OUT OF THE WEST TOMORROW AND THEN COME AROUND TO THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST SATURDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...HALBACH
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GEHRING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
555 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
CURRENTLY AS OF 21Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
U.S....BUT WITH A FEW IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH.
THE FIRST OF NOTE WAS OVER FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN...WHICH HAS
HELPED BRING THE STRONG WINDS...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION
TODAY. DESPITE 900MB WIND CORE OF 50-60 KT TRAVERSING ALL OF IOWA
INTO SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL...THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 58 MPH OR
HIGHER ENDED UP GOING RIGHT AROUND OUR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
925MB TEMPS COOLED QUITE A BIT TOO...DROPPING FROM 6-10C AT 12Z TO
2-6C NOW PER RAP ANALYSIS. SKIES CLEAR OUT FROM I-35 WESTWARD INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA...IN THE SUBSIDENCE AND STRONG DRYING BEHIND THE
TROUGH. THE NEXT POTENT LOOKING TROUGH WAS EVIDENT OVER NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW
CLOUDS...THOUGH THE WINDS ARE NOT AS STRONG AS THOSE THAT IMPACTED
THE AREA TODAY. A THIRD TROUGH WITH QUITE A BIT OF LIGHTNING WAS
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE TROUGH OVER NORTH DAKOTA LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF MN AND WI TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE CLOUD/PRECIPITATION IMPACT WITH
THIS TROUGH WILL STAY NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE POTENT NATURE
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELATIVELY TIGHT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. IN FACT THE RAP HAS A CORE OF 40-55 KT 925MB
WINDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. A STRENGTHENING
INVERSION BEHIND THE CURRENT TROUGH WILL HELP KEEP THESE STRONGER
WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN...BUT A 10-20 MPH BREEZE IS LIKELY TO
PERSIST. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH A 925MB TEMP WARM SURGE TO 6-12C
AT 06Z SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH A LOT OF THE
NIGHT. THE LOW TEMPERATURE MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL VERY LATE WHEN SFC-
925MB WINDS BEGIN TO SWITCH NORTHWEST...CAUSING 925MB TEMPS TO FALL
TO 2-7C AT 12Z.
ON SATURDAY A WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE INCOMING PACIFIC
TROUGH LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM
THIS SHORTWAVE IS TO CONTINUE FEEDING COOLER 925MB AIR INTO THE
REGION...DROPPING 1-2C THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALSO
HELP TO BRING SOME LOWER CLOUDS SOUTH INTO LOCATIONS NORTHEAST OF I-
94. MORE SUN OVERALL MAY HELP TO OFFSET SOME OF THE COOLING...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S...WARMEST SOUTH OF I-90 DUE TO
DISSIPATING SNOWPACK AND WARMEST 925MB TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
HIGHLIGHTS OF INTEREST...
CURRENT PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH MODELS PROG TO SWING MOST OF IT
WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...TRACKING FROM NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHERN IL.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A WEAK FRONTOGENESIS BAND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE TRACK THAT APPEARS TO MARCH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE 19.12Z GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WITH IT...HOWEVER...THE 19.12Z ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE DRY.
MUCH OF THE DIFFERENCE IS DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE BAND. GIVEN THE
TROUGH JUST COMING ONSHORE NOW...FEEL ITS PRUDENT TO MAINTAIN SOME
LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION LATE TUESDAY. MUCH OF THE GULF MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED
WITH A SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE SOUTHERN U.S. UP THE EAST
COAST...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE MIGHT STILL BE LINGERING TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. UNDERSCORE MIGHT AS THE 19.12Z ECMWF REALLY BACKED OFF ON
PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO ITS PREVIOUS RUN.
OTHERWISE...
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON A GRADUAL COOL DOWN THROUGH THE
PERIOD...DUE TO A SWITCH TO A MORE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH A
BRIEF WARM UP ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE REGION. ASSUMING A LOT OF THE FORECAST AREA
LOSES THE SNOWPACK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE RELATIVELY HIGHER
LATE FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE SHOULD HELP COUNTERACT SOME OF THIS COOLER
AIR. THE BIGGEST IMPACT COULD BE ON LOWS WITH THE LACK OF SNOW COVER
REDUCING RADIATIONAL COOLING. APPEARS THE COOL DOWN WILL BE BRIEF
WITH INDICATIONS IN DAYS 8-10 OF THE 19.12Z ECMWF AND CFS RUN FROM
THE 18TH FOR TEMPERATURES TO HEAD BACK ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED AND SHOULD STAY THAT WAY UNTIL LATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. GFS/NAM SUGGEST SOME LOW LEVEL RH RETURNS BY MID
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS. SFC OBS ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS/SOUTHERN CANADA CONFIRM AREAS OF MVFR CLOUDS. WILL ADD SOME
MID LEVEL VFR FOR THE MOMENT...AND CONTINUE TO ASSESS.
WINDS WILL STAY STRONG AND GUSTY INTO MID EVENING...CONTINUING TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. GUSTS SHOULD CUT OFF WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND ASSERTIVE NEAR SFC INVERSION. DIRECTION LOOKS TO STAY
MOSTLY FROM THE WEST THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.
LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN AT KLSE...WITH RAP/NAM12 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
POINTING TO AROUND 50 KTS AT 2 KFT THROUGH 09Z OR SO. WILL ADD INTO
THE FORECAST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
SNOW PACK TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 10. PERSISTENT BREEZY WINDS
WITH DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES STAYING ABOVE FREEZING INTO
SATURDAY EVENING WILL CONTINUE MELTING THE SNOW. WITH 1-2 INCH
WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE REMAINING SNOW PACK...COMBINED WITH A
MAINLY FROZEN GROUND...EXPECT RISES ON MANY RIVERS. RIGHT
NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RISES WILL OCCUR ALONG
THE KICKAPOO RIVER...ALTHOUGH WATER LEVELS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. ICE JAMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON
RIVERS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN RISES NEAR FLOOD STAGE.
AFTER SATURDAY EVENING SNOW PACK MELTING LOOKS TO SLOW AS
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY AND FALL BACK
BELOW FREEZING DURING THE NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...LITTLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING IT
FROM ENHANCING THE FLOOD THREAT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
522 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW STARTED OUT AS A
RAIN/SLEET MIX OVER NORTHERN WI LATE THIS MORNING...AND HAS SINCE
CHANGED TO SNOW OVER VILAS CO. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUES
SOUTH OF VILAS WITH A FEW SHOWERS HEADING INTO THE WESTERN FOX
VALLEY. SOUTH OF THE LOW...HAVE HAD A FEW GUSTS APPROACH AND
SURPASS WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA (45 MPH) OVER THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY
AND LAKESHORE AREAS. CENTRAL WI HAS REMAINED WELL BELOW CRITERIA SO
FAR. WITH COORDINATION FROM ARX...WILL CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY OVER
CENTRAL WI. EASTERN WI IS MORE PRONE TO THE HIGHER GUSTS SO WILL
LET THE ADVISORY RIDE FOR THIS AREA. WIND GUSTS AND PRECIP TRENDS
ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION. THOUGH PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE EXITED ALL BUT FAR
NORTHERN WI BY EARLY THIS EVENING...CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART.
MODELS SUGGEST SOME CLEARING TAKING PLACE OVER CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST
WI BY MID TO LATE EVENING. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN WI FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...PROLONGING THE BROKEN CLOUD COVER THERE...WHILE ALSO
PROVIDING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. WEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH FOR THE FIRST TWO HOURS OF THE
EVENING OVER EASTERN WI. THEN GUSTS SHOULD SETTLE IN THE 25 TO 30
MPH RANGE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE SOUTH AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...AND A SLIGHTLY COLDER AIRMASS DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS FAR NORTH-CENTRAL WI FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
OTHERWISE...THINKING SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA
BY MIDDAY. REMAINING MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S
SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER MOST OF NOAM AS A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES
ONSHORE AND AMPLIFIES.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR SUNDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGING TO MORE RAIN OR
MIXED RAN AND SNOW AS TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL...EAST CENTRAL
AND FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WARM ABOVE FREEZING. A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST...EXPECT GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL. TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE EXCEPTION AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE AREA...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PASSES.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 507 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND RAIN SHOWERS ELSEWHERE
WILL GRADUALLY END AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON DECREASE THIS EVENING
BUT WILL STILL BE GUSTY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY IFR TO
LOWER END MVFR CIGS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. SOME IMPROVEMENT
POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE THROUGH WITH COLD
FRONT WILL SAG INTO NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ022-038>040-045-
048>050.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
219 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
ROUGH OUTLINE OF WIND ADVISORY THAT WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR
IS FOUND IN THE ADVISORY SECTION AT BOTTOM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
SURFACE MAP SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF MONTANA
WITH A WARM FRONT ARCHING THROUGH SD INTO EASTERN NE AND WESTERN MO.
IR SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF ALTOSTRATUS IN ADVANCE OF THIS WARM
FRONT COVERING ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER
AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDFLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN CHECK IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO THE MIDDLE 20S AS OF 2 AM.
SOUTHERLY FLOW PICKS UP TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT APPROACH THE REGION. RAP BUFKIT SHOWS MOSTLY
MID/HIGH CLOUD OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH STRATUS HOLDING OFF TO THE
WEST...HOWEVER AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT... LOWEST 1.5KM OF COLUMN QUICKLY SATURATES
LEADING TO WIDESPREAD STRATUS. LIFT/TURNING THROUGH THIS STRATUS
WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF DRIZZLE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A LITTLE
FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 10 IN NORTH CENTRAL WI. ONLY LOOKS
LIKE A 3-4 HOUR WINDOW AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS TAKE OVER WITH EVEN A CHANCE OF A RUMBLE
OR TWO OF THUNDER IN THE 3-6AM TIME FRAME WITH 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT MAXIMIZING AND AS MID-LEVEL PV-ANOMALY/SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT APPROACH FROM MN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
IN FILTERED SUNSHINE. HAVE MID 30S-LOWER 40S GOING NOW...BUT COULD
END UP BEING A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF SUN FILTERS THROUGH ENOUGH.
FRIDAY WILL SEE MAINLY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON SHOWER CHANCES AS
THE LOW AND COLD FRONT SWING THROUGH. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A FEW MORNING THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE
WE BREAK OUT IN ALMOST FULL SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON WITH A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW/COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DECENT MIXING. THIS LOOKS TO TAP SOME FAIRLY STRONG WINDS
WITH NAM/GFS BUFKIT SHOWING 40-50KT ONLY 0.5KM AGL. RIGHT
NOW...LOOKING LIKE SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS OF 20-30MPH WITH GUSTS
35 TO 40 MPH...POSSIBLY CLOSING IN ON 50 MPH IN THE MORE WIND PRONE
AREAS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN AND HIGHER TERRAIN/BLUFF TOPS
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LOOKING LIKELY WE WILL EVENTUALLY NEED
A WIND ADVISORY HEADLINE BASED ON THIS. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT
PASSED THROUGH...MIXING OF PLAINS DOWNSLOPED AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD PUSH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S WITH A FEW LOWER 50S ACROSS
NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHWEST WI.
STRATUS CLOUDS FILL BACK IN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT BUT REMAINING RELATIVELY MILD WITH LOWS
ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
HIGH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
THIS USHERS IN A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOSTLY RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKING DRY AND A BIT COOLER/BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CARVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
VERY TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST AHEAD WITH AN ALL OR NOTHING TYPE LOOK
TO IT. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND GENERAL SATURATION CONTINUES AS LIFT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING WAVE CONTINUES TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. ALREADY
SEEING A NARROW STRIP OF IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA BUT THIS HAS
BEEN IN AND OUT AS DRYNESS OF CURRENT AIRMASS BATTLES SATURATION.
UNSURE ON HOW LONG THIS STRATUS LAYER WILL STAY IN TACT TODAY SO
WILL RIDE A MORE OPTIMISTIC VIEW WITH MORE VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
WATCH TRENDS FOR ANY EXPANSION TO STRATUS DECK.
GOING INTO THIS EVENING STILL SEEING SIGNS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING AND LOOKING FOR EXPANSION OF STRATUS AND FOG AS STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION REMAINS IN PLACE. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE IFR
CONDITIONS.
AS STRONG WAVE PASSES FRIDAY MORNING...DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD CLEAR CONDITIONS QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST. STRONG CORE OF
WINDS BEHIND WAVE WILL ALSO BEEN STRONG WINDS FOR A PERIOD LATE IN
TAFS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
WITH CLIMBING TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND...SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT
WILL TAKE PLACE...MELTING A 1-2 INCH WATER EQUIVALENT SNOWPACK WHICH
WILL ENTER THE RIVERS. A FEW MODELS SHOWING A COMPLETE MELT OF THIS
SNOWPACK. AS A RESULT...EXPECT RIVER RISES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
ICE BREAKUP ON STREAMS/RIVERS. A FEW ICE JAMS COULD RESULT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR WIZ032>034-
041>044-053>055-061.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-
019-029-030.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAUMGARDT
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...SHEA
HYDROLOGY...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1140 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
SURFACE MAP SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF MONTANA
WITH A WARM FRONT ARCHING THROUGH SD INTO EASTERN NE AND WESTERN MO.
IR SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF ALTOSTRATUS IN ADVANCE OF THIS WARM
FRONT COVERING ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER
AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDFLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN CHECK IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO THE MIDDLE 20S AS OF 2 AM.
SOUTHERLY FLOW PICKS UP TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT APPROACH THE REGION. RAP BUFKIT SHOWS MOSTLY
MID/HIGH CLOUD OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH STRATUS HOLDING OFF TO THE
WEST...HOWEVER AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT... LOWEST 1.5KM OF COLUMN QUICKLY SATURATES
LEADING TO WIDESPREAD STRATUS. LIFT/TURNING THROUGH THIS STRATUS
WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF DRIZZLE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A LITTLE
FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 10 IN NORTH CENTRAL WI. ONLY LOOKS
LIKE A 3-4 HOUR WINDOW AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS TAKE OVER WITH EVEN A CHANCE OF A RUMBLE
OR TWO OF THUNDER IN THE 3-6AM TIME FRAME WITH 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT MAXIMIZING AND AS MID-LEVEL PV-ANOMALY/SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT APPROACH FROM MN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
IN FILTERED SUNSHINE. HAVE MID 30S-LOWER 40S GOING NOW...BUT COULD
END UP BEING A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF SUN FILTERS THROUGH ENOUGH.
FRIDAY WILL SEE MAINLY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON SHOWER CHANCES AS
THE LOW AND COLD FRONT SWING THROUGH. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A FEW MORNING THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE
WE BREAK OUT IN ALMOST FULL SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON WITH A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW/COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DECENT MIXING. THIS LOOKS TO TAP SOME FAIRLY STRONG WINDS
WITH NAM/GFS BUFKIT SHOWING 40-50KT ONLY 0.5KM AGL. RIGHT
NOW...LOOKING LIKE SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS OF 20-30MPH WITH GUSTS
35 TO 40 MPH...POSSIBLY CLOSING IN ON 50 MPH IN THE MORE WIND PRONE
AREAS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN AND HIGHER TERRAIN/BLUFF TOPS
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LOOKING LIKELY WE WILL EVENTUALLY NEED
A WIND ADVISORY HEADLINE BASED ON THIS. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT
PASSED THROUGH...MIXING OF PLAINS DOWNSLOPED AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD PUSH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S WITH A FEW LOWER 50S ACROSS
NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHWEST WI.
STRATUS CLOUDS FILL BACK IN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT BUT REMAINING RELATIVELY MILD WITH LOWS
ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
HIGH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
THIS USHERS IN A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOSTLY RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKING DRY AND A BIT COOLER/BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CARVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
VERY TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST AHEAD WITH AN ALL OR NOTHING TYPE LOOK
TO IT. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND GENERAL SATURATION CONTINUES AS LIFT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING WAVE CONTINUES TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. ALREADY
SEEING A NARROW STRIP OF IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA BUT THIS HAS
BEEN IN AND OUT AS DRYNESS OF CURRENT AIRMASS BATTLES SATURATION.
UNSURE ON HOW LONG THIS STRATUS LAYER WILL STAY IN TACT TODAY SO
WILL RIDE A MORE OPTIMISTIC VIEW WITH MORE VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
WATCH TRENDS FOR ANY EXPANSION TO STRATUS DECK.
GOING INTO THIS EVENING STILL SEEING SIGNS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING AND LOOKING FOR EXPANSION OF STRATUS AND FOG AS STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION REMAINS IN PLACE. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE IFR
CONDITIONS.
AS STRONG WAVE PASSES FRIDAY MORNING...DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD CLEAR CONDITIONS QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST. STRONG CORE OF
WINDS BEHIND WAVE WILL ALSO BEEN STRONG WINDS FOR A PERIOD LATE IN
TAFS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
WITH CLIMBING TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND...SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT
WILL TAKE PLACE...MELTING A 1-2 INCH WATER EQUIVALENT SNOWPACK WHICH
WILL ENTER THE RIVERS. A FEW MODELS SHOWING A COMPLETE MELT OF THIS
SNOWPACK. AS A RESULT...EXPECT RIVER RISES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
ICE BREAKUP ON STREAMS/RIVERS. A FEW ICE JAMS COULD RESULT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...SHEA
HYDROLOGY...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
534 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
SURFACE MAP SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF MONTANA
WITH A WARM FRONT ARCHING THROUGH SD INTO EASTERN NE AND WESTERN MO.
IR SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF ALTOSTRATUS IN ADVANCE OF THIS WARM
FRONT COVERING ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER
AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDFLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN CHECK IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO THE MIDDLE 20S AS OF 2 AM.
SOUTHERLY FLOW PICKS UP TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT APPROACH THE REGION. RAP BUFKIT SHOWS MOSTLY
MID/HIGH CLOUD OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH STRATUS HOLDING OFF TO THE
WEST...HOWEVER AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT... LOWEST 1.5KM OF COLUMN QUICKLY SATURATES
LEADING TO WIDESPREAD STRATUS. LIFT/TURNING THROUGH THIS STRATUS
WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF DRIZZLE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A LITTLE
FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 10 IN NORTH CENTRAL WI. ONLY LOOKS
LIKE A 3-4 HOUR WINDOW AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS TAKE OVER WITH EVEN A CHANCE OF A RUMBLE
OR TWO OF THUNDER IN THE 3-6AM TIME FRAME WITH 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT MAXIMIZING AND AS MID-LEVEL PV-ANOMALY/SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT APPROACH FROM MN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
IN FILTERED SUNSHINE. HAVE MID 30S-LOWER 40S GOING NOW...BUT COULD
END UP BEING A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF SUN FILTERS THROUGH ENOUGH.
FRIDAY WILL SEE MAINLY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON SHOWER CHANCES AS
THE LOW AND COLD FRONT SWING THROUGH. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A FEW MORNING THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE
WE BREAK OUT IN ALMOST FULL SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON WITH A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW/COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DECENT MIXING. THIS LOOKS TO TAP SOME FAIRLY STRONG WINDS
WITH NAM/GFS BUFKIT SHOWING 40-50KT ONLY 0.5KM AGL. RIGHT
NOW...LOOKING LIKE SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS OF 20-30MPH WITH GUSTS
35 TO 40 MPH...POSSIBLY CLOSING IN ON 50 MPH IN THE MORE WIND PRONE
AREAS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN AND HIGHER TERRAIN/BLUFF TOPS
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LOOKING LIKELY WE WILL EVENTUALLY NEED
A WIND ADVISORY HEADLINE BASED ON THIS. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT
PASSED THROUGH...MIXING OF PLAINS DOWNSLOPED AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD PUSH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S WITH A FEW LOWER 50S ACROSS
NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHWEST WI.
STRATUS CLOUDS FILL BACK IN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT BUT REMAINING RELATIVELY MILD WITH LOWS
ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
HIGH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
THIS USHERS IN A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOSTLY RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKING DRY AND A BIT COOLER/BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CARVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH WITH
PERHAPS A TOUCH OF LIGHT FOG WORKING INTO KRST AS MOISTURE
INCREASES OVER THE SNOW PACK. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT SHOULD
BRING QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND PROBABLY SOME DRIZZLE THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...THOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW
LONG THOSE CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND...AS WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE REMAIN VERY STRONG. SOME OF THE LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST
STRATUS MAY PUSH NORTH OF THE TAF SITES BY 06Z...ONLY TO RETURN
TOWARD 12Z IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FOR
NOW...GIVEN THE PATTERN WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE RUNNING UP OVER THE
COLDER GROUND/SNOW...HAVE TO BELIEVE STRATUS WILL PROVE TOUGH TO
COMPLETELY DISLODGE...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY THROUGH THE
DAY. WINDS WILL RAMP UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR A CONCERN TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY FOR KLSE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
WITH CLIMBING TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND...SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT
WILL TAKE PLACE...MELTING A 1-2 INCH WATER EQUIVALENT SNOWPACK WHICH
WILL ENTER THE RIVERS. A FEW MODELS SHOWING A COMPLETE MELT OF THIS
SNOWPACK. AS A RESULT...EXPECT RIVER RISES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
ICE BREAKUP ON STREAMS/RIVERS. A FEW ICE JAMS COULD RESULT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...LAWRENCE
HYDROLOGY...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
321 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
SURFACE MAP SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF MONTANA
WITH A WARM FRONT ARCHING THROUGH SD INTO EASTERN NE AND WESTERN MO.
IR SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF ALTOSTRATUS IN ADVANCE OF THIS WARM
FRONT COVERING ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER
AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDFLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN CHECK IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO THE MIDDLE 20S AS OF 2 AM.
SOUTHERLY FLOW PICKS UP TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT APPROACH THE REGION. RAP BUFKIT SHOWS MOSTLY
MID/HIGH CLOUD OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH STRATUS HOLDING OFF TO THE
WEST...HOWEVER AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT... LOWEST 1.5KM OF COLUMN QUICKLY SATURATES
LEADING TO WIDESPREAD STRATUS. LIFT/TURNING THROUGH THIS STRATUS
WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF DRIZZLE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A LITTLE
FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 10 IN NORTH CENTRAL WI. ONLY LOOKS
LIKE A 3-4 HOUR WINDOW AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS TAKE OVER WITH EVEN A CHANCE OF A RUMBLE
OR TWO OF THUNDER IN THE 3-6AM TIME FRAME WITH 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT MAXIMIZING AND AS MID-LEVEL PV-ANOMALY/SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT APPROACH FROM MN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
IN FILTERED SUNSHINE. HAVE MID 30S-LOWER 40S GOING NOW...BUT COULD
END UP BEING A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF SUN FILTERS THROUGH ENOUGH.
FRIDAY WILL SEE MAINLY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON SHOWER CHANCES AS
THE LOW AND COLD FRONT SWING THROUGH. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A FEW MORNING THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE
WE BREAK OUT IN ALMOST FULL SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON WITH A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW/COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DECENT MIXING. THIS LOOKS TO TAP SOME FAIRLY STRONG WINDS
WITH NAM/GFS BUFKIT SHOWING 40-50KT ONLY 0.5KM AGL. RIGHT
NOW...LOOKING LIKE SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS OF 20-30MPH WITH GUSTS
35 TO 40 MPH...POSSIBLY CLOSING IN ON 50 MPH IN THE MORE WIND PRONE
AREAS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN AND HIGHER TERRAIN/BLUFF TOPS
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LOOKING LIKELY WE WILL EVENTUALLY NEED
A WIND ADVISORY HEADLINE BASED ON THIS. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT
PASSED THROUGH...MIXING OF PLAINS DOWNSLOPED AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD PUSH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S WITH A FEW LOWER 50S ACROSS
NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHWEST WI.
STRATUS CLOUDS FILL BACK IN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT BUT REMAINING RELATIVELY MILD WITH LOWS
ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
HIGH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
THIS USHERS IN A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOSTLY RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKING DRY AND A BIT COOLER/BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CARVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST WED FEB 17 2016
BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WORKING NORTHEAST...WITH A THIN BAND OF IFR/MVFR CLOUDS
JUST BEHIND THAT. LOW LEVEL RAP/NAM RH FIELDS CAPTURE THIS
REASONABLY WELL...WITH SATELLITE TRENDS BRINGING THE LOWER CIGS INTO
KRST NEAR 08Z AND KLSE TOWARD 10Z. THE BAND IS RELATIVELY THIN...AND
MESO MODELS SUGGEST IT MAY ONLY STICK AROUND FOR A FEW HOURS. A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS WOULD RESULT BEFORE INCREASING LOW
SATURATION ON THE NOSE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT RETURNS
IFR/MVFR BY MID AFTERNOON. NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON THE BREAK TO
VFR...BUT BELIEVE THE TRENDS SUPPORT IT. WITH THE INCREASING DEPTH
TO THE LOW SATURATION...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT/THERMODYNAMICS WOULD
SAY DRIZZLE AND/OR RAIN BECOMES LIKELY FOR THU EVENING.
LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS...BECOMING RELATIVELY STRONG/GUSTY FOR THU. DIRECTION
SHOULD HOLD SOUTHEASTERLY INTO THU NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
WITH CLIMBING TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND...SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT
WILL TAKE PLACE...MELTING A 1-2 INCH WATER EQUIVALENT SNOWPACK WHICH
WILL ENTER THE RIVERS. A FEW MODELS SHOWING A COMPLETE MELT OF THIS
SNOWPACK. AS A RESULT...EXPECT RIVER RISES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
ICE BREAKUP ON STREAMS/RIVERS. A FEW ICE JAMS COULD RESULT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION....RIECK
HYDROLOGY...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
107 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. MILDER AIR WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE REGION
SATURDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY WITH
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
FOLLOW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SOUTH
OF THE REGION MAY BRING SOME SNOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO CHANGES TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OR WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES
AT THIS TIME. GETTING REPORTS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE BEING REPORTED
AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 45 MPH.
HAVE LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ACROSS AREA
AS A WARM FRONT/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON REGIONAL RADAR RETURNS
AND MESOSCALE MODEL FORECAST. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON COVERAGE AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY HAVE
STABILIZED OR HAVE BEGUN TO RISE. P-TYPES FORECAST IS COMPLICATED
AS HAVE TEMPERATURES VARY FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S ACROSS
FORECAST AREA...WITH DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE 20S...PLUS HAVE SOME
WARMER AIR WORKING IN ALOFT. SO HAVE USED THE TOP DOWN APPROACH TO
CREATE THE WEATHER. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...A WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. SOME LINGERING POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY PERSIST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND SOUTHERN VT EARLY. THEN...AS FORCING SHIFTS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...WE EXPECT A PERIOD OF LITTLE IF ANY
RAINFALL FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH AROUND MID AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...THERE COULD BE PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90. EVENTUALLY...AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM NW
TO SE IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING.
SOME SHOWERS COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS GIVEN FAIRLY STRONG LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD REMAINING NEARBY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WIDELY
VARYING ACROSS THE REGION...AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH
SUNSHINE CAN BREAK OUT BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON.
HAVE SIDED WITH THE WARMER MAV MOS IN MOST AREAS...WITH 50S
EXPECTED IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...AND 45-50 TO THE N AND
W...WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAINLY REACH THE LOWER/MID 40S. WITH A
DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MAX
TEMPS COULD BE EVEN WARMER IN LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM I-90
SOUTH...AND CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME 60S IN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SAT NT-SUN...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SAT
NT...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. THEN...IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS OF RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW AND/OR SNOW
GRAINS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE MINOR ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES COULD OCCUR THROUGH
SUNDAY. CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF I-90 INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS DEVELOPING MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS...MAINLY MID 30S...EXCEPT FOR
LOWER 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. SUNDAY MAX TEMPS SHOULD
REACH THE 40S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 35-40 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SOME MAX TEMPS COULD REACH 50 IN PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.
SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS FROM
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING
THIS TIME. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW HAS TRENDED SOUTH OVERALL
COMPARED TO GUIDANCE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. HOWEVER...NOT READY TO
COMPLETELY DISCOUNT A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD TRACK...AND HAVE
THEREFORE INDICATED CHC POPS FROM THE I-90/I-88 CORRIDOR AND
POINTS S AND E. P-TYPE MAY INITIALLY BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS...BEFORE BECOMING ALL SNOW LATER AT NIGHT. ACCUMS OF A
COATING TO 2 INCHES ARE CURRENTLY INDICATED...GREATEST ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SE CATSKILLS/SOUTHERN TACONICS AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. FUTURE TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...HOWEVER...AS A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK COULD EASILY LEAD TO
GREATER AMTS...AND LARGER AREA OF SNOWFALL...WHICH COULD
COMPLICATE THE MON AM COMMUTE. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM WILL WILL START OUT
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD IN TO THE NORTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AND LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO OUR EAST.
AFTER THAT HOWEVER...OUR WEATHER LOOKS TO BECOME UNSETTLED AS NOT
ONE BUT AT LEAST TWO POTENTIAL GULF STORMS COULD IMPACT US.
KEEP IN MIND FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FROM WEDNESDAY ON...WILL
BE LOWER THAN AVERAGE.
WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL REGION OF THE COUNTRY...STRETCHING TO THE EAST COAST.
A FIRST WAVE OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK
UP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING
UPSTREAM TROUGH.
HOWEVER...ITS EXACT TRACK IS VERY MUCH IN PLAY. THE AIR MASS
AHEAD OF IT IS NOT ALL THE COLD...SO IT IS TOUGH CALL WHETHER
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW...OR A WINTRY MIX.
THIS FIRST STORM LOOKS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AS MOST OF THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY LOOKS TO LAG BEHIND AS THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE
SAILS BY TO OUR NORTHEAST.
THEN...A SECONDARY LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK UP FROM THE GULF STATES ON
THURSDAY. THE OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS IS WEAKER AND FURTHER EAST WITH
THIS SECOND SYSTEM...WHILE THE 12Z EURO TAKES A MORE INLAND TRACK AND
IS CONSIDERABLY DEEPER WITH THIS SECOND LOW PRESSURE.
THE 12Z GEFS CONTINUE TO OFFER A HUGE SPREAD OF
POSSIBILITIES OF P-TYPES AND AMOUNTS WITH MAINLY THE FIRST STORM.
RIGHT NOW OUR BEST FORECAST WILL HAVE A LIKELY FOR A SNOW OR
WINTRY MIX ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A CONTINUED GOOD CHANCE (50)
OF ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY.
BEHIND THE SECOND STORM...SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR LOOKS
TO FILTER IN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE
SOME HINTS A THIRD STORM COULD FORM. AT THIS TIME...
WE FELL A THIRD STORM WOULD LIKELY STAY TO OUR EAST
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL START OUT RANGING FROM ABOUT 30 NORTHWEST...TO AROUND
40 SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY...COOLING TO HIGHS AROUND 20 NORTHWEST TO
LOWER 30S SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY. LOWS LOOK TO AVERAGE IN THE 20S
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOWERING TO MAINLY THE TEENS
LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SW QUEBEC
THIS MORNING WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF PCPN TO THE ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND TAF SITES. THE COLD FRONT TO THE SYSTEM WILL THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS MAINLY PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU WITH A LIGHT MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW MOVING
THROUGH WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION PCPN. AS THE
COLUMN GRADUALLY MOISTENS EXPECT SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO IMPACT KALB-
KPSF NORTHWARD TO KGFL PRIOR TO 12Z/SAT. SOME LIGHT -FZRA MAY MIX
IN BRIEFLY AT KALB/KPSF PRIOR TO 12Z. TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AFTER 12Z/SAT WITH ANY RESIDUAL PCPN LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE UNTIL LATE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KPSF.
AS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND GET INTO A WARM SECTOR...EXPECT THE
SKIES TO BEGIN TO CLEAR WITH THE EROSION OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND FROM KALB SOUTH...SOME LOW VFR
STRATOCUMULUS MAY LINGER AT KGFL. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN AHEAD OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS 23Z/SAT. AT THIS
TIME...WE ARE EXPECTING VFR CIGS IN THE 4-8 KFT AGL RANGE.
LLWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE UNTIL 10-14Z AT
KGFL/KPSF/KPOU...WHERE THE 2 KFT AGL WINDS REMAIN 35-50 KTS...AND
THE SFC WINDS CONTINUE AT 8-15 KTS. KALB CONTINUES TO HAVE STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 15-20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-35 KT
RANGE...SO NO LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR THERE.
WINDS IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 8-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS AT KALB. THE WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SW AT AROUND 10 KTS AROUND 00Z/SUN.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION...SOME FROZEN...WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...AND SHOULD NOT
HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS AND LAKES.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE REGION SOMETIME
BETWEEN NEXT TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE STORM TRACK
REMAINS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME...BUT IT COULD CONTAIN MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIPITATION AMTS.
OUR 4TH WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (ALBESFALY) FOR
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WAS ISSUED ON FEBRUARY
18TH. THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING FOR THE
WINTER AND SPRING OF 2016 REMAINS BELOW NORMAL DUE TO BELOW NORMAL
SNOWPACK AND RIVER ICE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-038-
049-050-052>054-059>061.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-
033-038>042-047-048-051-058-082-083.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013-014.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
243 AM MST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. WE`VE ALREADY SEE ONE STORM
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LAST NIGHT. A
SECONDARY ONE IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD EASTERN IDAHO. AHEAD OF
IT...WE ARE SEEING LIGHT PRECIPITATION FORMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. RIGHT NOW NOT MUCH IS FALLING AT LOWEST
ELEVATIONS DUE TO DRIER AIR...SO MOST WHAT OCCURS THIS MORNING
WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH
PERHAPS SOME SLICK SPOTS DEVELOPING. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE
NORTHERN END OF TODAY`S WAVE WILL SKIRT THE DIVIDE AND KEEP A FEW
SHOWERS GOING AROUND ISLAND PARK AND THE MOUNTAINS DOWN TO DRIGGS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH SPEEDS
SLOWLY WINDING DOWN. LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY TAKES
HOLD. DON`T EXPECT THIS RIDGE TO HOLD LONG AT ALL...BUT IT COULD
BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WEAK INVERSIONS SUNDAY MORNING. THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME STRATUS WILL FORM ACROSS PART OF THE
UPPER SNAKE PLAIN AND HIGHLANDS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE TO HIT
THAT PRETTY HARD AND ESPECIALLY NOT ENOUGH TO GO WITH EVEN PATCHY
FOG.
THE MODELS START HEADING DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS AT THIS POINT. THE
NAM AND GFS ARE PRETTY WIMPY WITH THE FIRST STORM SWEEPING THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT..AND PRODUCES A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THE ECMWF IS QUITE DIFFERENT WITH A PRETTY GOOD
SHOT OF SHOWERS AREAWIDE. WE WENT WITH THE DRIER IDEA AND ALSO
SLIGHTLY SLOWER AS SHOWN WITH THE GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE
ECMWF. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
MONDAY WITH A SYSTEM DRIVING MORE SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA. THE NAM
WAS PRETTY MUCH DRY ALTHOUGH THE LATEST RUN MAY BE TRENDING THE
OTHER WAY. FOR NOW...KEEP WITH A CONSERVATIVE CHANCE EVEN IN THE
MOUNTAINS UNTIL WE HAVE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN WHAT`S GOING
TO HAPPEN. THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
FEBRUARY. KEYES
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. A SHORT LIVED RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY A DISTURBANCE SLIDES
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MONTANA AND WYOMING...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS FROM MONIDA PASS TO ABOUT
VICTOR. ESTIMATE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE OFF THE PACIFIC WILL REACH THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEK REMAIN ABOUT 4 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL. RS
&&
.AVIATION...BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND CARIBOU HIGHLANDS MOVING AWAY FROM KBYI AND KPIH. THE
LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN FAVORS SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
TAF SITES BY 12Z THIS MORNING AND THIS LOOKS CONSISTENT WITH RADAR
IMAGERY. THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF
SITES. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS 12-15 KTS AND GUSTY AT KBYI...KPIH AND
KIDA THROUGH 21/01Z. SOME INCREASED SUBSIDENCE INVERSIONS MAY GIVE
RISE TO PATCHY FOG IN THE SNAKE PLAIN SUNDAY MORNING. RS
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
335 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
A weak frontal boundary lies just south of I-70 corridor early this
morning. Surface temperature/dew point spreads in the vicinity of
this boundary are pretty much nonexistent, and this has resulted in
fog expanding and thickening across the area. The past few runs of
the HRRR have seemed to grab onto this fog, and each run is more
pessimistic on visibilities than the prior run. Based on the latest
visibility and HRRR trends, plan to issue a Dense Fog Advisory for
this area. The cirrus shield overhead is substantial enough to make
it difficult to see the areal extent of the fog, but obviously not
thick enough to help prevent its development. Expect the fog to burn
off after sunrise through both diurnal effects and increasing
southwesterly winds.
Aside from the early morning fog in the southeast, a quiet weather
day is expected across central and southeast Illinois. One more very
mild day (for late February) is anticipated, with most areas topping
out in the 60s. While these readings will be at least a few degrees
cooler than yesterday, it should feel nicer outside due to winds
being much lighter.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
After another unseasonably mild day today across central and
southeast IL with a few sites approaching record highs, temps will
be cooling during early and middle part of next week. 00Z models
push a cold front southward toward Peoria at 00Z/6 pm today, to I-70
by 06Z/midnight tonight and through southeast IL during overnight.
1009 mb surface low pressure over sw KS to drop into north central
OK by sunset today and then lift toward the southern tip of IL by
12Z/6 am Sunday, and then into northeast KY at 18Z/noon Sunday. Some
increasing moisture and elevated instability into southern counties
tonight with chances of showers from I-72 south and isolated
thunderstorms in southeast IL along and south of a Shelbville to
Terre Haute line. SPC day1 outlook even has marginal risk (5%) of
hail sw of Clay county tonight. Lows tonight range from mid 30s
northern counties to low to mid 40s in southeast IL. Chance of rain
showers in southeast IL Sunday morning then dry across area and
skies becoming partly sunny. NNW winds brings cooler highs Sunday
ranging from upper 40s ne CWA to lower 50s sw CWA with mid 50s along
and south of highway 50 in southeast IL.
Canadian high pressure settles se into the Great Lakes during Sunday
night and Monday along with upper level trof digging into the area.
This continues cooler temps with highs Monday in the low to mid 40s
except upper 40s in southeast IL with partly to mostly cloudy skies.
Highs Tue in the mid to upper 40s with dry conditions to continue
during day Tue.
Extended models are showing a stronger southern stream storm system
developing over the southern plains by Tue evening and deepening
surface low pressure ne into the central Appalachians/eastern Ohio
river valley Wed night. This to bring a chance of rain/snow over
southeast IL Tue night and eastern IL Wed and possibly lingering
near Wabash river valley Wed evening. GEM keeps qpf southeast of CWA
but GFS and ECWMF have trended further west with qpf fields and
blended between these later 2 model solutions. Temps cool further on
Wed/Thu with highs in upper 30s/lower 40s, with southeast IL mid 40s
on Wed. A deep upper level trof over the eastern U.S. late next week
brings below normal temps next Fri/Sat with highs in the mid 30s to
near 40F with lows in the upper teens to mid 20s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
VFR conditions will prevail through the day tomorrow, as high
pressure builds across northern Illinois. The cold front will
stall out across central Illinois and become a stationary front
tomorrow. However, limited moisture along the front will prevent
any precipitation until at least 00z. The NAM and GFS show little
to no rain through 06z, but the ECMWF and Canadian GEM show rain
between 00z-06z. We left off a mention of precip in the TAFS after
00z for now, but did introduce some MVFR clouds for the southern
terminals of SPI, DEC and CMI.
LLWS looks likely after 09z tonight as a LLJ cranks up to 45-50kt at
925mb. RAP, NAM and GFS bufkit soundings point toward rapid speed
changes over a very short vertical distance. LLWS conditions
should dissipate after 16z.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ILZ066>068-
071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
355 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
STRONG LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ON TO
THE NORTHEAST. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAILING THIS LOW WILL STALL
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA TONIGHT AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
NEAR RECORD HIGHS TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL BECOME MUCH COOLER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO
GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS OUR REGION.
A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS MAY BRING
A CHANCE OF SNOW OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
SATELLITE INDICATED THAT WE WERE UNDER A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH LOTS
OF HIGH THIN CLOUDS ACROSS OUR AREA. AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND EXTENDED EAST INTO THE VINCENNES AREA. WILL MENTION
AREAS OF EARLY MORNING FOG FAR SOUTHWEST AND PATCHY FOG REMAINDER WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH MID MORNING.
ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE POSSIBLE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AS A VERY WARM
AIR MASS CONTINUES ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AS
WARM AS +11 DEGREES CELSIUS ACROSS OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY WERE IN THE LOWER 70S TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS WERE TOO COOL YESTERDAY AND THIS MAY BE THE RESULT AGAIN TODAY.
BOTH THE RAP AND HRR SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NAM
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH ACTUALLY VERIFIED BETTER YESTERDAY. WILL GO WITH A BLEND
TODAY AND GO A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MET AND MAV NUMBERS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT
PUSHING INTO THAT AREA MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE THERE. ANYWAYS WENT
WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 70 SOUTH TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA TONIGHT AND AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SPREADING LIGHT RAIN
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY ENDING IT FROM
THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS DRY.
MODELS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR SOUTH TONIGHT WITH
CAPES OF 500 TO 800 J/KG. WILL ADD MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS TONIGHT. SPC ALSO HAS THIS AREA WITH A RISK OF GENERAL
THUNDER.
LEANED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE WARMER CONSALL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS.
THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. AFTER SUNDAY MORNING IT LOOKS LIKE COOLER...DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S FAR NORTH TONIGHT TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S NORTH TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH
AND WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S ALL AREAS MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
A ROBUST UPPER LOW MAKING IT/S WAY ACROSS THE U.S. WILL BE THE
WEATHER MAKER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE LONG TERM. THE
LATEST OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS ARE TRENDING WEST WITH THE SURFACE
LOW FROM THIS SYSTEM AND NOW BRING IT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND UP THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. THIS TRACK PRODUCES
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...ALBEIT MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCES...TO THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE LOW MAKES ITS WAY FROM
SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE INTO OHIO. GIVEN THE MORE WESTWARD TREND WILL
MAINTAIN SMALL POPS GIVEN BY THE INITIALIZATION AND IF TREND
CONTINUES MAY NEED TO INCREASE WITH LATER FORECASTS. FOR PTYPE
GENERALLY USED A RAIN/SNOW MIX DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY WHERE RAIN APPEARS MORE LIKELY BASED ON
FORECAST TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 200900Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCLUDE SOME MVFR FOG AT KBMG...WHERE DEW POINT
SPREAD IS ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES AND VISIBILITY HAS ALREADY FALLEN
TO 6SM. AT THIS TIME WILL NOT UPDATE KHUF BUT IT IS POSSIBLE COULD
NEED TO INCLUDE MVFR VSBY THERE AS WELL. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...
NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER OR PROLONGED/WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY.
SURFACE WINDS 220-240 DEGREES AT 6-10 KTS OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO BECOME
12-14 KTS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL SURFACE GUSTS 18-22 KTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS/CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
400 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO GET TEMPS MORE IN LINE WITH REALITY AS THEY
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FALL DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST WINDS STAYING UP.
THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES ON ITS TREK NORTHEAST. THIS BROUGHT GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING. THE WINDS ARE STARTING TO
SETTLE WITH MOST GUSTS CAPPED AT 25 MPH. EXPECT THESE TO FURTHER
DIMINISH WITH TIME THIS EVENING. AS SUCH HAVE DROPPED THE NPW AND
UPDATED THE HWO/ZFP. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A
FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAKE OF A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT. DID ADD A TOUCH OF
SHOWERS TOWARDS DAWN IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA PER THE
LATEST HRRR AND 18Z NAM12. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE FOR THE
NIGHT LEADING TO MILD CONDITIONS AND A WELL MIXED LOWER
ATMOSPHERE...MEANING NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. CURRENTLY...TEMPS ARE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S. HAVE ALSO FINE TUNED TEMPS AND DEW POINTS PER THE
LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AND OBS/TRENDS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
WARM SECTOR AIR MASS HAS BROUGHT UNSEASONABLE WARMTH TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...AS TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN WELL INTO
THE MID 60S WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NEAR THE VIRGINIA STATE LINE. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40-45 MPH WILL DECREASE BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF TURBULENT MIXING AND WIND SPEED MAXIMA ALOFT PASSING OFF
TO THE EAST. WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ON BLACK
MOUNTAIN AND SURROUNDING HIGHER TERRAIN WELL INTO THIS EVENING IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT.
WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY THIS EVENING IN ACCORDANCE WITH A GREAT LAKES LOW...BRINGING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO THE REGION. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW SHALLOW OMEGA PROFILES AND SATURATING LOWER LEVELS...CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH GIVEN THE LACK OF
DEEP LAYER LIFT/SATURATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
WILL SEE MOISTURE HANG UP ACROSS NORTHERN TENNESSEE AND
POTENTIALLY EVEN SOUTHERN KENTUCKY SATURDAY AS A SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS IN A TYPICAL CROSS-MOUNTAIN FLOW
REGIME ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. QUICK-PACED ZONAL FLOW
AIDED BY A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL DRAW THIS SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...THUS
INCREASING RAIN SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
60S SATURDAY AND MID 50S-LOW 60S SUNDAY. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES
SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS RIVALING CLIMATOLOGICAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MID 40S-LOW 50S SATURDAY MORNING AND
UPPER 40S-MID 50S SUNDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS RAINY ON MONDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFTS OFF TO OUR EAST. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE FIRST OF MANY WAVES SCOOTS BY TO OUR
SE.
QUITE A COMPLICATED FORECAST DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD RELATING TO
MULTIPLE WAVES/LOWS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
VARIED GREATLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...WITH THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE OF INTEREST CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE EAST PAC NEAR
26N/132W. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO...DEEPEN OVER THE GULF...FORM A SFC LOW...AND EVENTUALLY LIFT
UP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD/APPALACHIANS. AS THIS PROCESS
OCCURS...A TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...AND
EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH THE FEATURE FROM THE EAST PAC.
TUESDAY/S WAVE NOW LOOKS LESS SIGNIFICANT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS
AND STAYS MOSTLY SUBDUED TO THE SOUTH...TURNING THE FOCUS TO THE
LOW THAT DROPS OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON TUESDAY...DEEPENS
OVER TEXAS...THEN LIFTS INTO THE TN VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL TO THE REGION WITH
POSSIBLE SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE AS IT LIFTS INTO THE OH VALLEY
THURSDAY MORNING. IN THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW SIMILAR LOW PATHS WITH THE GFS BEING A
SLOWER...STRONGER...AND WETTER SOLUTION. AS THIS LOW LIFTS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE REINFORCES THE PRECIP
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN...THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN A TRICKY PART OF THIS FORECAST SO HAVE
STAYED CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND UNTIL CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER AND
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MVFR
CEILINGS FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
NEAR AND NORTH OF I-64...WHERE CEILINGS ARE MORE QUESTIONABLE. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CEILINGS IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. ANOTHER
DETERIORATION TO MVFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE TRAVELS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...TRAVELING ALONG A
COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
203 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO GET TEMPS MORE IN LINE WITH REALITY AS THEY
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FALL DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST WINDS STAYING UP.
THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES ON ITS TREK NORTHEAST. THIS BROUGHT GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING. THE WINDS ARE STARTING TO
SETTLE WITH MOST GUSTS CAPPED AT 25 MPH. EXPECT THESE TO FURTHER
DIMINISH WITH TIME THIS EVENING. AS SUCH HAVE DROPPED THE NPW AND
UPDATED THE HWO/ZFP. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A
FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAKE OF A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT. DID ADD A TOUCH OF
SHOWERS TOWARDS DAWN IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA PER THE
LATEST HRRR AND 18Z NAM12. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE FOR THE
NIGHT LEADING TO MILD CONDITIONS AND A WELL MIXED LOWER
ATMOSPHERE...MEANING NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. CURRENTLY...TEMPS ARE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S. HAVE ALSO FINE TUNED TEMPS AND DEW POINTS PER THE
LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AND OBS/TRENDS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
WARM SECTOR AIR MASS HAS BROUGHT UNSEASONABLE WARMTH TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...AS TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN WELL INTO
THE MID 60S WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NEAR THE VIRGINIA STATE LINE. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40-45 MPH WILL DECREASE BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF TURBULENT MIXING AND WIND SPEED MAXIMA ALOFT PASSING OFF
TO THE EAST. WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ON BLACK
MOUNTAIN AND SURROUNDING HIGHER TERRAIN WELL INTO THIS EVENING IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT.
WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY THIS EVENING IN ACCORDANCE WITH A GREAT LAKES LOW...BRINGING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO THE REGION. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW SHALLOW OMEGA PROFILES AND SATURATING LOWER LEVELS...CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH GIVEN THE LACK OF
DEEP LAYER LIFT/SATURATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
WILL SEE MOISTURE HANG UP ACROSS NORTHERN TENNESSEE AND
POTENTIALLY EVEN SOUTHERN KENTUCKY SATURDAY AS A SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS IN A TYPICAL CROSS-MOUNTAIN FLOW
REGIME ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. QUICK-PACED ZONAL FLOW
AIDED BY A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL DRAW THIS SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...THUS
INCREASING RAIN SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
60S SATURDAY AND MID 50S-LOW 60S SUNDAY. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES
SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS RIVALING CLIMATOLOGICAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MID 40S-LOW 50S SATURDAY MORNING AND
UPPER 40S-MID 50S SUNDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO COME TO ANY TYPE OF CONSENSUS ON SOLUTIONS
AND RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY HAS BEEN POOR. CONSEQUENTLY OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE
LOWER THAN USUAL. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT THE LARGER SCALE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL EVOLVE INTO A
LESS PROGRESSIVE WESTERN RIDGE...EASTERN TROUGH ORIENTATION.
ALOFT...SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT MEAN TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY DY3...TUESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
TRACKING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL MAKE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
SYSTEMS THROUGH THE REGION THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE OF THE FORECAST.
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...FIRST SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WILL TRACK UP THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY OVER A STALLED OUT FRONTAL ZONE. THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY GENERATE A BAND OF SHOWERS THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY EVEN BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO...MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN MOST ZONES WHERE
THERE IS A BIT MORE INSTABILITY. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
KEEPING THE FRONTAL ZONE FURTHER SOUTH...ORIENTED WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AND AS A RESULT HAS BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE QPF...PRODUCING NEARLY THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR MORE OF
RAINFALL ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS SCENARIO HAS ALSO BEEN AN OUTLIER WHEN
COMPARED WITH THE NAM/ECMWF WHICH PLACES THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...WHERE THE FRONTAL
ZONES LIFTS IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER APPROACHING SFC WAVE. THE
NAM AND ECMWF ONLY GENERATE AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN ACROSS
OUR AREA. A GFS SOLUTION WOULD LIKELY KEEP SEVERAL OF OUR STREAMS
AND RIVERS RUNNING HIGH FOR ANOTHER FEW DAYS.
THEREAFTER FOCUS TURNS TO POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER(S) EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR
MORE SFC LOWS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. BUT TRACKS HAVE BEEN AS FAR
NORTHWEST AS OUR FORECAST AREA AND AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...OR GULF STREAM. MODELS ARE OBVIOUSLY HAVING TROUBLE
NEGOTIATING ENERGY TRAVELING THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON A BLEND OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS AND GUIDANCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AT LEAST
UNTIL MODELS ARE ABLE TO SETTLE ON A SOLUTION. IN ADDITION...THERE
ARE NO SOLID TRENDS TO GUIDE THE FORECAST ONE WAY OR ANOTHER WITH
RESPECT TO NEXT WEEK/S WEATHER. THEREFORE FEEL IT IS BEST TO
CONTINUE OUR CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE OF LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
RESPECT TO ANY TYPE OF SIGNIFICANT WINTRY WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK.
FOR TEMPS...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE WILL COOL BACK DOWN FROM VERY WARM
60S ON SUNDAY TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS...OR POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WINDOW. EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT TEMPS
WILL ACTUALLY TURN OUT TO BE A BIT COOLER CONSIDERING THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN. BUT BASED ON THE BLEND OF GUIDANCE...WE CAN GENERALLY
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 EACH DAY...AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S. OF COURSE EXPECT AN ADJUSTMENT IN THESE TEMPS ONCE
THERE IS A BETTER HANDLE IN TIMING THE UPCOMING DISTURBANCES THROUGH
OUR AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MVFR
CEILINGS FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
NEAR AND NORTH OF I-64...WHERE CEILINGS ARE MORE QUESTIONABLE. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CEILINGS IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. ANOTHER
DETERIORATION TO MVFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE TRAVELS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...TRAVELING ALONG A
COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1156 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 757 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY IS PICKING UP ON A SMALL AREA OF
PRECIPITATION OVER FAR SE NORTH DAKOTA...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
THERMAL RIDGE AND MID LEVEL WAVE. A CURRENT DISTANCE-SPEED TRACK
BRINGS THIS AREA OF BRIEF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE INTO THE BRAINERD
LAKES AREA AROUND 1000 PM. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR IS ALSO
PICKING UP ON THIS FEATURE AND SUGGESTS IT SLIDES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN ZONES...INCLUDING THE MILLE LACS LAKE AND ST CROIX RIVER
VALLEY...THROUGH DAY BREAK. HAVE INTRODUCED A FEW HOURS PERIOD OF
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES INTO THE GRIDS FOR THIS AREA ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
RAIN...SOMETIMES CHANGING TO SNOW OR SLEET...CONTINUES ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL QUICKLY WRAP UP TOWARDS THE
EVENING AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION TOWARDS LAKE
SUPERIOR. COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AS A
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAILS THE MAIN THE LOW...RESULTING IN
MAINLY SNOW OVERNIGHT NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY FALL BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS...BUT A MILD START TO THE
WEEKEND NONETHELESS.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A FAIRLY FAST-MOVING PATTERN ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE MIDWEST. THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE WINTRY PRECIP YESTERDAY AND TODAY IS LIFTING EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO EASTERN ONTARIO TODAY WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON ITS TAIL OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SRN MANITOBA
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON DIVING EAST TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS
IT WEAKENS TONIGHT. A RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BREAKS DOWN
WITH A MUCH MORE ZONAL PATTERN AT MID LEVELS FOR SATURDAY. THE
SECOND UPPER LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN TO FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TONIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH
POSSIBLE FROM INTERNATIONAL FALLS TO ELY AND POINTS NORTH...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE IRON RANGE AND TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD.
AIR MOVING IN WITH THIS SECOND LOW IS COLDER BUT CERTAINLY NOT VERY
COLD...JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW 0C...SO TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BOUT OF CLEARING IN
THE SOUTHERN CWA...MAINLY BRAINERD TO SPOONER...DUE TO SOME MID-
LEVEL RIDGING IN BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS...BUT CLOUDS QUICKLY RETURN
TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 30S.
SATURDAY MILD AND MOSTLY CLOUDY. DESPITE THE LOW DEPARTING A MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS PREVENTS AN ARCTIC
HIGH FROM BUILD IN WHICH MEANS CONTINUED CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.
PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
WITH A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE DRY. HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
MAIN CONCERN FOR LONG TERM IS LIGHT SNOW CHANCES/TEMPS
IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD. WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL
AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK BRINING PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW ALONG WITH SHORT LIVED COLD TEMPERATURES. A SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BIT WILL HAVE
LITTLE MOISTURE WITH IT SO ONLY AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
BRINGING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE REST OF THE NEXT WEEK WILL SEE A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
BRINGING LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION TO THE REGION. TEMPS WILL
VARY FROM NORMAL TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR/IFR AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS AT KINL WHERE LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE OCCURRING. LATEST GUIDANCE IS MOST PESSIMISTIC WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS AT KINL. THINK THAT THE CIGS WILL REMAIN LIFR...HOWEVER
LATEST GFSLAMP/NAMMOS/GFSMOS INDICATE VISBY AROUND 1/2SM OR LOWER
FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD. THINK THIS IS A BIT OVERDONE AS UPSTREAM
OBS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF THESE CONDITIONS...BUT WILL NEED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING A THREAT OF
SNOW SHOWERS...MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY SOME VISBY RESTRICTION
BETWEEN 14Z-21Z ON SATURDAY. AFTER THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN 18Z AND
21Z...EXCEPT FOR KHYR WHERE PRECIPITATION MAY STILL LINGER AS THE
WAVE IS EXITING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 31 36 24 30 / 20 10 10 30
INL 30 33 17 23 / 50 30 20 10
BRD 32 36 25 32 / 10 10 30 20
HYR 33 37 25 34 / 20 10 10 30
ASX 33 38 25 31 / 70 20 20 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GRANING
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...WL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
427 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILDER AIR WILL OCCUR TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA. COOLER AIR WILL SLOWLY EDGE
BACK INTO THE KEYSTONE STATE LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO
OUR SOUTH. A BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR
MONDAY. A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A ONE OR MORE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...THEN MOVING NORTHEAST NEAR THE I-95
CORRIDOR. THESE WEATHER FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING A FEW
ROUNDS OF MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION DURING THE LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME-FRAME.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERCAST...ALTO CU DECK OVER THE REGION /ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF
A WARM FRONT/ IS BEGINNING TO BREAK ACROSS SCENT AND SWRN PENN
EARLY TODAY. STRONG LLVL WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SW /WITH
UPSTREAM TEMPS ACROSS SWRN PENN AND OHIO IN THE 50S/ WILL CAUSE
TEMPS TO RISE STEADILY THIS MORNING...STARTING OUT IN THE UPPER
30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION /AND RISING FORM THE MID 40S OVER
THE LAURELS/.
MOISTURE ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT IS MEAGER...BUT
STILL SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SPOTTY PRECIP
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...WHICH SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF SCATTERED...VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS.
OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE STEADY AND SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
21Z SREF...00Z OPER GUIDANCE...AND 20/06Z HRRR ALL CONTINUE TO
SHOW DRY CONDITIONS FOR TODAY...ALONG WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE...IN WHAT WILL END UP BEING THE WARM SECTOR AFTER WE MIX
OUT THE REMAINING...SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL COOL AIR IN THE U30S/U40S TO
START THE DAY.
IT WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE SW...GUSTING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH
AT TIMES...WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE RIDGES.
BASED ON A BLEND OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE /WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR/
AND EXPERIENCE WITH STRONG WEST TO SW FLOW...EXPECT QUITE MILD
TEMPS BY THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN WITH THE SNOWPACK. HIGHS TODAY WILL
BE IN THE 50-55F RANGE ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...AND MID TO UPPER 50S
ELSEWHERE. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A 60-61F SHOW UP
SOMEWHERE ACROSS SCENT PENN...WHERE DOWNSLOPING EFFECT WILL BE
MAXIMIZED.
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TRACKS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO
APPEAR BY EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY WHEN THE 12Z GFS
SOLUTION BECOMES FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO THE
CONSENSUS. THE 12Z NAM BECOMES SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED AND TENDS
TO LAG ON THE SLOWER SIDE OF THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. 12Z ECMWF
HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE SUPPRESSED BUT REMAINS A MIDDLE GROUND
BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS...WHO REMAIN SLOW AND FAST OUTLIERS
RESPECTIVELY. THE 12Z CANADIAN/UKMET GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO TREND
FLATTER TOWARDS 06Z/12Z GFS RUNS WHICH BETTER FITS THE RELATIVELY
ZONAL FLOW THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN. THIS INCREASES
UNCERTAINTY INTO THE PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION WITH THE MODELS
VARYING ON LOCATION AND MAGNITUDE OF BEST 850-700MB
FGEN/CONVERGENCE. QPF TRENDED SOMEWHAT SOUTHWARD AND SNOW AMTS
(SUNDAY NGT) WERE CUT BACK GIVEN LOWER OVERALL CONFIDENCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER ON MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING RISK FOR
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION TUE-THU. CONFIDENCE
IN SOME FORM OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH
AND THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE 50-70 PERCENT
RANGE...HOWEVER THE EXACT LOCATION/TIMING/DISTRIBUTION/AMOUNTS OF
WINTRY PCPN (AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS) DEPEND ON UNCERTAIN DETAILS
SUCH AS THE LOW TRACK FROM ONE OR TWO SYSTEMS. ODDS FOR BIG SNOW
TOTALS REMAIN LOW BUT NON-ZERO. DECISION MAKERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FORECASTS WITH POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS CENTERED
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND LOWER TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FROM THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS...BUT WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SATURDAY WILL BE A
BREEZY AND MILD DAY WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH RAIN OR SNOW...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MON-TUE...REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH SNOW OR RAIN.
WED...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
210 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILDER AIR WILL OCCUR TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA. COOLER AIR WILL SLOWLY EDGE
BACK INTO THE KEYSTONE STATE LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO
OUR SOUTH. A BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR
MONDAY. A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A ONE OR MORE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...THEN MOVING NORTHEAST NEAR THE I-95
CORRIDOR. THESE WEATHER FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING A FEW
ROUNDS OF MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION DURING THE LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME-FRAME.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERCAST...ALTO CU DECK OVER THE REGION /ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF
A WARM FRONT/ IS BEGINNING TO BREAK ACROSS SCENT AND SWRN PENN
EARLY TODAY. STRONG LLVL WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SW /WITH
UPSTREAM TEMPS ACROSS SWRN PENN AND OHIO IN THE 50S/ WILL CAUSE
TEMPS TO RISE STEADILY THIS MORNING...STARTING OUT IN THE UPPER
30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION /AND RISING FORM THE MID 40S OVER
THE LAURELS/.
MOISTURE ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT IS MEAGER...BUT
STILL SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SPOTTY PRECIP
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...WHICH SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF SCATTERED...VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS.
OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE STEADY AND SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
21Z SREF...00Z OPER GUIDANCE...AND 20/06Z HRRR ALL CONTINUE TO
SHOW DRY CONDITIONS FOR TODAY...ALONG WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE...IN WHAT WILL END UP BEING THE WARM SECTOR AFTER WE MIX
OUT THE REMAINING...SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL COOL AIR IN THE U30S/U40S TO
START THE DAY.
IT WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE SW...GUSTING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH
AT TIMES...WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE RIDGES.
BASED ON A BLEND OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE /WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR/
AND EXPERIENCE WITH STRONG WEST TO SW FLOW...EXPECT QUITE MILD
TEMPS BY THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN WITH THE SNOWPACK. HIGHS TODAY WILL
BE IN THE 50-55F RANGE ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...AND MID TO UPPER 50S
ELSEWHERE. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A 60-61F SHOW UP
SOMEWHERE ACROSS SCENT PENN...WHERE DOWNSLOPING EFFECT WILL BE
MAXIMIZED.
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TRACKS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO
APPEAR BY EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY WHEN THE 12Z GFS
SOLUTION BECOMES FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO THE
CONSENSUS. THE 12Z NAM BECOMES SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED AND TENDS
TO LAG ON THE SLOWER SIDE OF THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. 12Z ECMWF
HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE SUPPRESSED BUT REMAINS A MIDDLE GROUND
BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS...WHO REMAIN SLOW AND FAST OUTLIERS
RESPECTIVELY. THE 12Z CANADIAN/UKMET GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO TREND
FLATTER TOWARDS 06Z/12Z GFS RUNS WHICH BETTER FITS THE RELATIVELY
ZONAL FLOW THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN. THIS INCREASES
UNCERTAINTY INTO THE PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION WITH THE MODELS
VARYING ON LOCATION AND MAGNITUDE OF BEST 850-700MB
FGEN/CONVERGENCE. QPF TRENDED SOMEWHAT SOUTHWARD AND SNOW AMTS
(SUNDAY NGT) WERE CUT BACK GIVEN LOWER OVERALL CONFIDENCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER ON MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING RISK FOR
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION TUE-THU. CONFIDENCE
IN SOME FORM OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH
AND THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE 50-70 PERCENT
RANGE...HOWEVER THE EXACT LOCATION/TIMING/DISTRIBUTION/AMOUNTS OF
WINTRY PCPN (AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS) DEPEND ON UNCERTAIN DETAILS
SUCH AS THE LOW TRACK FROM ONE OR TWO SYSTEMS. ODDS FOR BIG SNOW
TOTALS REMAIN LOW BUT NON-ZERO. DECISION MAKERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FORECASTS WITH POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS CENTERED
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND LOWER TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FROM THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS...BUT WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. NORTHERN AND WESTERN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR...BRIEF IFR...CEILINGS
AS SOME RAIN SHOWERS WORK ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES BY LATE NIGHT OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE
SATURDAY.
SATURDAY WILL BE A BREEZY AND MILD DAY WITH WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH RAIN OR SNOW...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MON-TUE...REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH SNOW OR RAIN.
WED...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LACORTE/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
903 PM PST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...COOL SHOWERY WEATHER WITH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS WILL
PREVAIL TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY PROVIDING A DRY BREAK IN
THE WEATHER FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND... RAIN...AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. GENERALLY MILD
AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...SOME POST FRONTAL LIGHTNING...OKAY...ONLY ONE
STRIKE...OCCURRED OVER COASTAL WATERS EARLIER IN THE EVENING...BUT
OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ATYPICAL ACTIVITY. GENERALLY
SHOWERY CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SECONDARY
PATCH OF SHOWERS COVERING THE NORTHERN HALF OF SNOHOMISH COUNTY
STRETCHING INTO SKAGIT AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. GENERAL MOVEMENT
IS TO THE EAST NORTHEAST...HOWEVER...ARE ALSO DISSIPATING AS THEY
MOVE EASTWARD...SO FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE SOUND...MIGHT BE MORE
OF A QUESTION OF IF RATHER THAN WHEN. THAT BEING SAID...OVERNIGHT
POP FORECAST MIGHT BE A TOUCH TOO PESSIMISTIC BUT GIVEN THE SHARP
DROP OFF IN FORECASTED POPS AFTER 12Z...OR 4 AM PST...NOT SURE THERE
WOULD BE MUCH POINT TO AN UPDATE.
MUCH OF INHERITED HEADLINES WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON HOW THINGS HOLD
TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD. WITH BAND OF PRECIP MAKING ITS WAY
TO THE OLYMPICS NOW...WINTER WX ADVISORY SHOULD BE FINE THERE.
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS COASTAL PRECIP BAND ALSO DOING GOOD JOB OF
HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT MOVES EAST...SO THAT BODES WELL FOR WINTER
STORM FOR RAINIER AND LEWIS/PIERCE CASCADES. BUT PRECIP HAVING A
HARD TIME MAKING IT ACROSS THE SOUND. WILL NOT LIKELY DO ANYTHING
WITH WINTER WX ADVISORIES FOR REMAINDER OF CASCADES...ALTHOUGH NEAR
TERM HRRR INDICATES A HOLE DEVELOPING IN KING/SNOHOMISH
CASCADES...INDICATIVE OF CURRENT RADAR TREND...AND MORE OF A FOCUS
ON THE NORTH. WILL ADVISE OVERNIGHT SHIFT OF THIS AND ALLOW THEM TO
MAKE TWEAKS AS THEY SEE FIT.
SMALL SCALE RIDGING STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAINS PROGGED FOR SUNDAY
WITH GENERAL TROFINESS AND SHOWERS BEHIND THAT FOR MONDAY. SMR
.LONG TERM...FROM 353 PM PST DISCUSSION...MODELS AGREE IN PUSHING A
SHARP UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS WRN WA ON TUE...MAKING FOR A
CONFIDENTLY DRY AND SUNNY DAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST NEXT WED...BUT MODELS ARE EITHER
FLATTENING THE RIDGE ON WED...OR PUSHING A DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE
WEAK BELLY OF THE RIDGE. THIS NECESSITATES CARRYING LOW POPS IN THE
FORECAST NEXT WED. LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL RECOVER AND RE-BUILD ON
THU...ALLOWING THE FORECAST TO DRY OUT AGAIN INTO FRI. HANER
&&
.AVIATION...NEGATIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN WA WILL
CONTINUE MOVING INLAND EARLY SATURDAY. FLOW ALOFT TURNING NW BEHIND
THE TROUGH. ASSOCIATED AIR MASS COOL MOIST AND UNSTABLE. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER WESTERN WA LATER SATURDAY WITH
THE AIR MASS DRYING AND STABILIZING. AT THE SURFACE... LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW TO TURN OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS HIGHER PRES BUILDS EAST OF
THE CASCADES.
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL
ONSHORE OVERNIGHT...TAPERING OFF SATURDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH
HEADS INLAND. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THOUGH MVFR AT TIMES
PRIMARILY WITH SHOWERS.
KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS THOUGH WILL LIKELY SLIP TO MVFR WITH PASSING
SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
10-15 KT AND EASING THROUGH THE NIGHT. BUEHNER
&&
.MARINE...FRIDAYS COLD FRONT MOVED EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS
EVENING. ONSHORE FLOW INTO WESTERN WA IN ITS WAKE WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS ALL WATERS. ONSHORE FLOW AND WINDS TO EASE OVERNIGHT.
HIGHER PRES TO BUILD EAST OF THE CASCADES SATURDAY WITH LOW LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.
THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM ABOUT 1000 NM OFFSHORE IS EXPECTED
TO SWING ONSHORE LATER SUNDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW RESUMING. BIG CHANGE
IN THE WEATHER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF NORTH AMERICA CREATING OFFSHORE FLOW
ACROSS WESTERN WA. BUEHNER
&&
.HYDROLOGY...SKOKOMISH RIVER AT POTLATCH CRESTED EARLIER THIS
EVENING JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND CONTINUES TO GO DOWN THIS
EVENING. PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA MAY CAUSE LEVELS TO RISE
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...BUT ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT
THIS TIME.
WITH RIDGING ON TAP FOR TOMORROW AND AGAIN AFTER MONDAY...NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. SMR
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PST SATURDAY FOR CASCADES OF
PIERCE AND LEWIS COUNTIES.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PST SATURDAY FOR CASCADES OF
SNOHOMISH AND KING COUNTIES-CASCADES OF WHATCOM AND SKAGIT
COUNTIES-OLYMPICS.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
334 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE CONCERN TODAY AND
TONIGHT. 20.09Z ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT
FROM NEAR ALBERT LEA TO JUST WEST OF EAU CLAIRE. LOW-LEVEL COLD
AIR ADVECTION REGIME BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE REINFORCED BY A
WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. RAP 0.5 KM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OUTPUT SUGGESTS
A MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS
FROM THE NORTH SO THAT MOST AREAS ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS IDEA IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE NSSL WRF SYNTHETIC
SATELLITE IMAGERY. INCREASING CLOUDS AND DECREASING 925 HPA
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
CHECK...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WI TO
THE MID-UPPER 40S ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST WI.
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...SNOW MELT WILL CONTINUE
ALLOWING AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RISE. A SUSPECTED ICE JAM IS
LIKELY OCCURRING ALONG THE GRANT RIVER NEAR BURTON EARLY THIS
MORNING. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. ADDITIONAL
ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE AS RIVER ICE BREAKS UP AND MOVES DOWNSTREAM.
TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT DRY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S AND A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
A STRONGER SHORT-WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY SWEEP
ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIP. THE STRONGEST 500 TO 300 HPA POSITIVE
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY 18Z. AS A
RESULT...THE BEST LIFT MOVES THROUGH BEFORE LOW-LEVEL SATURATION
CAN OCCUR...LIMITING PRECIP POTENTIAL. WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT
BELOW FREEZING...PRECIP TYPE WILL DEPEND ON NEAR SURFACE
VALUES. THUS...A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE BUT LIQUID AMOUNTS
WILL BE MINIMAL...GENERALLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OR LESS. IF SNOW DOES
DEVELOP FOR COLDER AREAS...LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
AFTER A DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE REGION...THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
ON TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS WAVE IS MORE IMPRESSIVE
COMPARED TO SUNDAY/S SYSTEM. SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BISECT THE
FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY 18Z...BUT MODEST WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. ONCE AGAIN...PRECIP TYPE WILL DEPEND
ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS STRUGGLE WITH TIMING/STRENGTH OF
ADDITIONAL SHORT-WAVES AS BROADER SYNOPTIC PATTERN TRANSITIONS
TO A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES
THURSDAY...BUT OTHERWISE A DRY FORECAST TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. OVERALL...A COOLER PERIOD WITH DAILY HIGHS AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
MESO MODELS MOVING TOWARD BRINGING A MVFR DECK OF CLOUDS CURRENTLY
ACROSS ND/SOUTHERN CANADA SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH THE HRRR/RAP13/
NAM12 ALL SLIDING THEM ACROSS KRST/KLSE BEFORE 18Z. THE NAM WOULD
THEN HOLD ONTO THESE CLOUDS WELL INTO SAT NIGHT. A LOT OF SINKING
AIR THOUGH...PER COLD AIR ADVECTION/QG DIVERGENCE...AND SOME
QUESTION IN JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THIS CLOUD DECK WILL REACH. STEERING
CURRENTS COULD KEEP THE SOUTHERN EDGE JUST NORTH TOO. GETTING
ENOUGH CONSENSUS THOUGH TO ADD 1.5-2.5 KFT MENTION FOR BOTH SITES...
DESPITE CONFIDENCE BEING SHAKY ON THE MATTER. COULD SEE SOME
CLEARING OF THAT DECK /IF IT MOVES IN/ EARLY FRI EVENING...OR IT
COULD HANG AROUND. ANTICIPATE UPDATES AS SATELLITE TRENDS AND
LATER MODEL RUNS ADD SOME CLARITY TO THE CLOUD FORECAST.
LLWS REMAINS A CONCERN AT KLSE...WITH RAP/NAM12 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
POINTING TO AROUND 50 KTS AT 2 KFT THROUGH 09Z OR SO.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
THE GRANT RIVER NEAR BURTON IN GRANT COUNTY WISCONSIN HAS RISEN
APPROXIMATELY 13 FT SINCE FRIDAY AT 18Z AND IS NOW ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE OF 18 FT. THIS IS MORE INDICATIVE OF AN ICE JAM THAN SNOW
MELT RUNOFF WHEN COMPARED TO OTHER NEARBY RIVER GAUGES. LAW
ENFORCEMENT REPORTED SLOW WATER MOVEMENT AT THE COUNTY ROAD N
OVERPASS...BUT VISIBILITY WAS LIMITED DUE TO NIGHTFALL. IT IS
ASSUMED AN ICE JAM DOWNSTREAM IS CAUSING THESE WATER RISES. A
FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED IN THE VICINITY OF BURTON AND WILL
BE REASSESSED AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION. OTHERWISE...ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW
FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT RUNOFF TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE RIVER
SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL RISES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
OTHER ICE JAMS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...RIECK
HYDROLOGY...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1100 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
CURRENTLY AS OF 21Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
U.S....BUT WITH A FEW IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH.
THE FIRST OF NOTE WAS OVER FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN...WHICH HAS
HELPED BRING THE STRONG WINDS...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION
TODAY. DESPITE 900MB WIND CORE OF 50-60 KT TRAVERSING ALL OF IOWA
INTO SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL...THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 58 MPH OR
HIGHER ENDED UP GOING RIGHT AROUND OUR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
925MB TEMPS COOLED QUITE A BIT TOO...DROPPING FROM 6-10C AT 12Z TO
2-6C NOW PER RAP ANALYSIS. SKIES CLEAR OUT FROM I-35 WESTWARD INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA...IN THE SUBSIDENCE AND STRONG DRYING BEHIND THE
TROUGH. THE NEXT POTENT LOOKING TROUGH WAS EVIDENT OVER NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW
CLOUDS...THOUGH THE WINDS ARE NOT AS STRONG AS THOSE THAT IMPACTED
THE AREA TODAY. A THIRD TROUGH WITH QUITE A BIT OF LIGHTNING WAS
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE TROUGH OVER NORTH DAKOTA LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF MN AND WI TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE CLOUD/PRECIPITATION IMPACT WITH
THIS TROUGH WILL STAY NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE POTENT NATURE
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELATIVELY TIGHT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. IN FACT THE RAP HAS A CORE OF 40-55 KT 925MB
WINDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. A STRENGTHENING
INVERSION BEHIND THE CURRENT TROUGH WILL HELP KEEP THESE STRONGER
WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN...BUT A 10-20 MPH BREEZE IS LIKELY TO
PERSIST. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH A 925MB TEMP WARM SURGE TO 6-12C
AT 06Z SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH A LOT OF THE
NIGHT. THE LOW TEMPERATURE MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL VERY LATE WHEN SFC-
925MB WINDS BEGIN TO SWITCH NORTHWEST...CAUSING 925MB TEMPS TO FALL
TO 2-7C AT 12Z.
ON SATURDAY A WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE INCOMING PACIFIC
TROUGH LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM
THIS SHORTWAVE IS TO CONTINUE FEEDING COOLER 925MB AIR INTO THE
REGION...DROPPING 1-2C THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALSO
HELP TO BRING SOME LOWER CLOUDS SOUTH INTO LOCATIONS NORTHEAST OF I-
94. MORE SUN OVERALL MAY HELP TO OFFSET SOME OF THE COOLING...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S...WARMEST SOUTH OF I-90 DUE TO
DISSIPATING SNOWPACK AND WARMEST 925MB TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
HIGHLIGHTS OF INTEREST...
CURRENT PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH MODELS PROG TO SWING MOST OF IT
WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...TRACKING FROM NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHERN IL.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A WEAK FRONTOGENESIS BAND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE TRACK THAT APPEARS TO MARCH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE 19.12Z GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WITH IT...HOWEVER...THE 19.12Z ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE DRY.
MUCH OF THE DIFFERENCE IS DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE BAND. GIVEN THE
TROUGH JUST COMING ONSHORE NOW...FEEL ITS PRUDENT TO MAINTAIN SOME
LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION LATE TUESDAY. MUCH OF THE GULF MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED
WITH A SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE SOUTHERN U.S. UP THE EAST
COAST...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE MIGHT STILL BE LINGERING TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. UNDERSCORE MIGHT AS THE 19.12Z ECMWF REALLY BACKED OFF ON
PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO ITS PREVIOUS RUN.
OTHERWISE...
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON A GRADUAL COOL DOWN THROUGH THE
PERIOD...DUE TO A SWITCH TO A MORE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH A
BRIEF WARM UP ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE REGION. ASSUMING A LOT OF THE FORECAST AREA
LOSES THE SNOWPACK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE RELATIVELY HIGHER
LATE FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE SHOULD HELP COUNTERACT SOME OF THIS COOLER
AIR. THE BIGGEST IMPACT COULD BE ON LOWS WITH THE LACK OF SNOW COVER
REDUCING RADIATIONAL COOLING. APPEARS THE COOL DOWN WILL BE BRIEF
WITH INDICATIONS IN DAYS 8-10 OF THE 19.12Z ECMWF AND CFS RUN FROM
THE 18TH FOR TEMPERATURES TO HEAD BACK ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
MESO MODELS MOVING TOWARD BRINGING A MVFR DECK OF CLOUDS CURRENTLY
ACROSS ND/SOUTHERN CANADA SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
HRRR/RAP13/NAM12 ALL SLIDING THEM ACROSS KRST/KLSE BEFORE 18Z. THE
NAM WOULD THEN HOLD ONTO THESE CLOUDS WELL INTO SAT NIGHT. A LOT OF
SINKING AIR THOUGH...PER COLD AIR ADVECTION/QG DIVERGENCE...AND SOME
QUESTION IN JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THIS CLOUD DECK WILL REACH. STEERING
CURRENTS COULD KEEP THE SOUTHERN EDGE JUST NORTH TOO. GETTING ENOUGH
CONSENSUS THOUGH TO ADD 1.5-2.5 KFT MENTION FOR BOTH SITES...DESPITE
CONFIDENCE BEING SHAKY ON THE MATTER. COULD SEE SOME CLEARING OF
THAT DECK /IF IT MOVES IN/ EARLY FRI EVENING...OR IT COULD HANG
AROUND. ANTICIPATE UPDATES AS SATELLITE TRENDS AND LATER MODEL RUNS
ADD SOME CLARITY TO THE CLOUD FORECAST.
LLWS REMAINS A CONCERN AT KLSE...WITH RAP/NAM12 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
POINTING TO AROUND 50 KTS AT 2 KFT THROUGH 09Z OR SO.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
SNOW PACK TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 10. PERSISTENT BREEZY WINDS
WITH DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES STAYING ABOVE FREEZING INTO
SATURDAY EVENING WILL CONTINUE MELTING THE SNOW. WITH 1-2 INCH
WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE REMAINING SNOW PACK...COMBINED WITH A
MAINLY FROZEN GROUND...EXPECT RISES ON MANY RIVERS. RIGHT
NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RISES WILL OCCUR ALONG
THE KICKAPOO RIVER...ALTHOUGH WATER LEVELS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. ICE JAMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON
RIVERS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN RISES NEAR FLOOD STAGE.
AFTER SATURDAY EVENING SNOW PACK MELTING LOOKS TO SLOW AS
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY AND FALL BACK
BELOW FREEZING DURING THE NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...LITTLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING IT
FROM ENHANCING THE FLOOD THREAT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1034 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW STARTED OUT AS A
RAIN/SLEET MIX OVER NORTHERN WI LATE THIS MORNING...AND HAS SINCE
CHANGED TO SNOW OVER VILAS CO. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUES
SOUTH OF VILAS WITH A FEW SHOWERS HEADING INTO THE WESTERN FOX
VALLEY. SOUTH OF THE LOW...HAVE HAD A FEW GUSTS APPROACH AND
SURPASS WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA (45 MPH) OVER THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY
AND LAKESHORE AREAS. CENTRAL WI HAS REMAINED WELL BELOW CRITERIA SO
FAR. WITH COORDINATION FROM ARX...WILL CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY OVER
CENTRAL WI. EASTERN WI IS MORE PRONE TO THE HIGHER GUSTS SO WILL
LET THE ADVISORY RIDE FOR THIS AREA. WIND GUSTS AND PRECIP TRENDS
ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION. THOUGH PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE EXITED ALL BUT FAR
NORTHERN WI BY EARLY THIS EVENING...CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART.
MODELS SUGGEST SOME CLEARING TAKING PLACE OVER CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST
WI BY MID TO LATE EVENING. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN WI FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...PROLONGING THE BROKEN CLOUD COVER THERE...WHILE ALSO
PROVIDING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. WEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH FOR THE FIRST TWO HOURS OF THE
EVENING OVER EASTERN WI. THEN GUSTS SHOULD SETTLE IN THE 25 TO 30
MPH RANGE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE SOUTH AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...AND A SLIGHTLY COLDER AIRMASS DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS FAR NORTH-CENTRAL WI FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
OTHERWISE...THINKING SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA
BY MIDDAY. REMAINING MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S
SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER MOST OF NOAM AS A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES
ONSHORE AND AMPLIFIES.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR SUNDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGING TO MORE RAIN OR
MIXED RAN AND SNOW AS TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL...EAST CENTRAL
AND FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WARM ABOVE FREEZING. A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST...EXPECT GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL. TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE EXCEPTION AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE AREA...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PASSES.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
CLEAR SKIES HAVE BRIEFLY WORKED OVER THE REGION THIS FRIDAY
EVENING...BUT VFR CLOUDS WITH PATCHY MVFR CIGS WILL WORK RAPIDLY
INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
THROUGH WITH COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
946 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY COOL OFF SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT PASSES OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE 10 AM UPDATE. ONLY CHANGES AT THIS TIME
WERE TO DEW POINT TEMPS AND SKY COVER. SKIES ARE SUNNY NOW...BUT
CIRRO-STRATUS TO OUR SOUTH ADVECTS NORTH FOR EARLY AFTERNOON AND
THEN QUICKLY MOVES OUT. CLOUD COVER AMOUNT FORECAST FOLLOWS
LATEST RAP UPPER LEVEL RH FIELDS CLOSELY. OVERALL...MOSTLY SUNNY.
GFS LAMP MOS SUGGESTS FORECAST TEMPS ARE A TAD TOO WARM...BUT WILL
CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AS TRENDS ARE AT TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE.
OVERALL...UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR OVER THE REGION TODAY.
MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE WARMER MAV/ECS GUIDANCE WITH LOWER 60S
IN THE NYC/NJ METRO AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S MOST ELSEWHERE. SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY.
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES STAY
WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH DRY AND WITH ONLY SOME SCT CLOUDS AT BEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE REGION. A QUICK MOVING H5 VORT MAX AND ATTENDANT
SHORTWAVE APPROACH DURING THE DAY...BUT EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE QUITE MILD...BUT
NOT AS WARM AS SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A QUICK MOVING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5 ENERGY AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW DEVELOPING FAIRLY FAR SOUTH
ACROSS VIRGINIA AND THEN QUICKLY SLIDING APPROX 150 MILES SOUTH
OF THE BENCHMARK. OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES...THE TREND
HAS BEEN SOUTH WITH THE LOW...WITH A GLANCING OF LIFT AND PCPN LATE
SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE
ECMWF...GFS...CMC...NAM...GEFS...AND THE 03Z SREF ALL SUPPORT SOME
LIGHT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THE LATEST 06Z NAM AND 06Z GFS JUST IN HAS SHIFTED
THE LOW EVEN FURTHER SOUTH WITH NO MEASURABLE PCPN OVER THE CWA.
POPS MAY NEED TO BE BROUGHT DOWN FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY IF THESE
TRENDS CONTINUE TODAY.
TEMPS ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT...BUT TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO COOL OVERNIGHT. 925 HPA ND 850 HPA
TEMPS BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL STILL
WILL BE MARGINAL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION MAY NOT BE HEAVY
ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY OVERCOME THE MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER. WITH ALL
OF THIS IN MIND...CONTINUE TO FORECAST LOW SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND NO
ACCUMULATION IN THE NYC METRO.
PCPN EXITS BY DAY BREAK MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
RETURNING...AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH...PROVIDING COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS EARLY ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SE.
PRECIPITATION MAY AFFECT OUR REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW LIKELY DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
POTENTIALLY BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL HAVE
SOME DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW...BUT THERE
IS SOME AGREEMENT THAT THE MAIN LOW PASSES INLAND WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES MAY BE TO WARM ON TUESDAY TO SUPPORT SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT ACROSS FAR INLAND LOCATIONS TUESDAY
NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. AS
TEMPERATURES WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S THE
ENTIRE REGION SHOULD BE TRANSITION BACK TO PLAIN RAIN.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO PULL AWAY ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THE SYSTEM
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DOSE OF COLD AIR TO THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TERMINALS AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT.
VFR.
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS CAN
BE EXPECTED. A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE.
WINDS DIMINISH A FEW KNOTS TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO THE W TO NW AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINALS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUN-MON...VFR SUN. A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR IN RAIN AND OR SNOW SUN
NIGHT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. BECOMING VFR EARLY MON WITH ANY
PRECIPITATION ENDING.
.TUE...VFR EARLY...BECOMING MVFR.
.TUE NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE.
.WED...IFR POSSIBLE EARLY...BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO THIS
EVENING ALONG WITH ELEVATED SEAS. AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS THIS EVENING WINDS AND GUSTS WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE IN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW...AND SMALL CRAFT SEAS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS MAY LINGER
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. AS IT DEPARTS...WINDS COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH
SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN. OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON ALL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACK ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SEAS WILL
BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CRITERIA ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT ON FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION GREATER THAN A HALF
INCH IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH POSSIBLY THURSDAY COULD BRING UP TO AN INCH OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FEB 20
EWR....70/1939
BDR....54/1991*
NYC....69/1939*
LGA....63/1943
JFK....61/1949
ISP....54/1991
*ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...FIG/DS
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
631 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY
A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH
OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL PA AS OF 11Z...AND WILL
CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY SURGED INTO
THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS NYC...LONG ISLAND...AND SE CT. EXPECT TO SEE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...AND THEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.
TEMPS BEHIND THE WARM FRONT IN WESTERN PA AND THE OHIO VALLEY ARE
WELL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. THIS UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY. HRRR AND RAP PROFILES INDICATE
DECENT MIXING UP TO AROUND 950 HPA BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WHICH
SHOULD ALSO BOOST TEMPERATURES UPWARD. CLOUDS WILL ALSO CLEAR WITH
ONLY SOME FEW OR SCT CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THE WARMER MAV/ECS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY. THE LATEST
OFFICIAL HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST BLENDS IN THE MOST HRRR/RAP
DATA YIELDING HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S IN THE NYC/NJ METRO AND MIDDLE
TO UPPER 50S MOST ELSEWHERE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT HIGHS
COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN OUR CURRENT FORECAST. SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY.
WEAK ECHOES ON RADAR THIS MORNING ARE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK VORT
ENERGY BETWEEN H7 AND H5. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN A FEW ISOLATED
REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN...BUT NOTHING MEASURABLE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST AFTER 13Z ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES STAY WELL
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
DRY AND WITH ONLY SOME SCT CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE REGION. A QUICK MOVING H5 VORT MAX AND ATTENDANT
SHORTWAVE APPROACH DURING THE DAY...BUT EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE QUITE MILD...BUT
NOT AS WARM AS SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A QUICK MOVING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5 ENERGY AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW DEVELOPING FAIRLY FAR SOUTH
ACROSS VIRGINA AND THEN QUICKLY SLIDING APPROX 150 MILES SOUTH OF
THE BENCHMARK. OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES...THE TREND HAS
BEEN SOUTH WITH THE LOW...WITH A GLANCING OF LIFT AND PRECIP LATE
SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE
ECMWF...GFS...CMC...NAM...GEFS...AND THE 03Z SREF ALL SUPPORT SOME
LIGHT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THE LATEST 06Z NAM AND 06Z GFS JUST IN HAS
SHIFTED THE LOW EVEN FURTHER SOUTH WITH NO MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER
THE CWA. POPS MAY NEED TO BE BROUGHT DOWN FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY IF
THESE TRENDS CONTINUE TODAY.
TEMPS ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT...BUT TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO COOL OVERNIGHT. 925 HPA ND 850 HPA
TEMPS BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL STILL
WILL BE MARGINAL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION MAY NOT BE HEAVY
ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY OVERCOME THE MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER. WITH ALL
OF THIS IN MIND...CONTINUE TO FORECAST LOW SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND NO
ACCUMULATION IN THE NYC METRO.
PRECIP EXITS BY DAY BREAK MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
RETURNING...AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH...PROVIDING COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS EARLY ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SE.
PRECIPITATION MAY AFFECT OUR REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW LIKELY DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
POTENTIALLY BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL HAVE
SOME DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW...BUT THERE
IS SOME AGREEMENT THAT THE MAIN LOW PASSES INLAND WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES MAY BE TO WARM ON TUESDAY TO SUPPORT SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT ACROSS FAR INLAND LOCATIONS TUESDAY
NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. AS
TEMPERATURES WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S THE
ENTIRE REGION SHOULD BE TRANSITION BACK TO PLAIN RAIN.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO PULL AWAY ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THE SYSTEM
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DOSE OF COLD AIR TO THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE
TONIGHT.
VFR.
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT MAY OCCASIONALLY
GUST 20-25 KT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH A FEW
KNOTS TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO THE W TO NW AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINALS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUN-MON...VFR SUN. A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR IN RAIN AND OR SNOW SUN
NIGHT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. BECOMING VFR EARLY MON WITH ANY
PRECIPITATION ENDING.
.TUE...VFR EARLY...BECOMING MVFR.
.TUE NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE.
.WED...IFR POSSIBLE EARLY...BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT WAS APPROACHING THE WATERS AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE THE ASSOCIATED LOW WAS MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAVE INCREASED TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS IN THE
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. IN ADDITION...SMALL
CRAFT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND ALSO IN THE COOLER AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT. AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS THIS EVENING
WINDS AND GUSTS WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT. HOWEVER...SEAS
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE IN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND SMALL CRAFT
SEAS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
WITH MARGINAL GUSTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS
TODAY THE ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED.
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. AS IT DEPARTS...WINDS COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH
SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN. OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON ALL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACK ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SEAS WILL
BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CRITERIA ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT ON FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION GREATER THAN A HALF
INCH IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH POSSIBLY THURSDAY COULD BRING UP TO AN INCH OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FEB 20
EWR....70/1939
BDR....54/1991*
NYC....69/1939*
LGA....63/1943
JFK....61/1949
ISP....54/1991
*ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...FIG/DS
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
943 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
14Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THERE ARE A FEW WEAKER SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW...BUT BASICALLY THE OVERALL PATTERN
CONSISTS OF PROGRESSIVE WEST TO EAST FLOW ALOFT. SOUTHERN STREAM
JET ARRIVES OVER THE BAJA REGION OF MEXICO BEFORE TURNING EAST AND
MOVING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. THIS ENERGY WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND KEEP THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OFF TO THE NORTH AS WELL.
12Z KTBW SOUNDING SHOWS THE DRYNESS OF THE OVERALL COLUMN QUITE
WELL. STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS PRESENT AT 870MB...WITH
MARKED DRYING ABOVE THIS LEVEL.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE OUR REGION
ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. WEAK LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE AXIS IS TRAPPING MOISTURE
UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION NOTED ABOVE ON THE KTBW SOUNDING. THE
LARGE SCALE SUPPRESSION OVERTOP THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS A GOOD
SETUP FOR AREAS OF STRATUS TO FORM DURING THE OVERNIGHT...AND CAN
SEE THIS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS
ARE STREAMING INLAND FROM THE SPACE COAST INTO POLK COUNTY...WITH
OTHER AREAS CROSSING FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA INTO PORTIONS OF
HIGHLANDS/LEE COUNTY.
THE GENERAL TREND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS DIURNAL MIXING GETS
UNDERWAY SHOULD BE FOR THESE CLOUDS TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF A
SCT-BKN STRATOCU FIELD...AND EVENTUALLY A CUMULUS FIELD. DIURNAL
MIXING WAS STRONG ENOUGH ON FRIDAY TO MIX PAST THE LEVEL OF TODAYS
INVERSION...AND IF THIS CAN OCCUR AGAIN...THEN WE WILL LIKELY MIX
OUT MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ENTIRELY BY THE LATER AFTERNOON
HOURS. SO...WILL CALL THE FORECAST MOSTLY CLOUDY...BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY FOR THOSE AREAS SEEING THE MORNING HOURS. ELSEWHERE THINGS
SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY FOR THE TAMPA BAY AREA BY
AFTERNOON...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE
NATURE COAST WHERE LESS INTRUSION OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE IS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY PLEASANT FOR FEBRUARY...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST REACHING THE MIDDLE 70S. A
FEW NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS MAY SEE UPPER 70S BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...ONLY
ACTING TO LIGHTEN THE GRADIENT FURTHER. THE LIGHT GRADIENT AND
STRONG TERRESTRIAL HEATING (GIVEN THE CURRENT SHELF WATER TEMPS)
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FORCE A FEEBLE SEABREEZE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE BEACHES. THIS BREEZE SHOULD NOT PENETRATE ALL
THAT FAR INLAND...BUT WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE IMMEDIATE
SHORELINE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS THEN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND DAYLIGHT HOURS OF
SUNDAY...WHILE ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST CONDITIONS FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL DIP A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH ON SUNDAY...BUT GENERALLY STILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH. MAY SEE AN SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS DURING SUNDAY
WITH THIS CLOSER JET ENERGY...BUT THIS WOULD ONLY ACT TO POSSIBLY
FILTER THE SUN AT TIMES. THE OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
REMAIN QUITE DRY...WITH LITTLE TO NO SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT.
THEREFORE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN NEAR ZERO. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 NORTH OF I-4...AND IN THE 50S FURTHER
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RECOVER WELL INTO THE 70S FOR
MOST INLAND LOCATIONS. THE IMMEDIATE COAST SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP A
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON...KEEPING TEMPS DOWN BY
SEVERAL DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SEEN ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS
MORNING. THERE ARE SOME CLOUDS ADVANCING WESTWARD NEAR KLAL AND
AROUND KFMY/KRSW...BUT CEILINGS ARE ABOVE AND SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
4KFT. WILL BE WATCHING FOR MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY
FOG LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AROUND KLAL/KPGD.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR
LESS. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY BRINGING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES. A COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND CROSSES THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WITH POSSIBLE SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 75 58 75 57 / 0 0 10 0
FMY 77 57 80 60 / 0 0 10 10
GIF 76 55 78 56 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 74 55 75 57 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 77 49 77 50 / 0 0 10 0
SPG 75 59 75 60 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
923 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
Dense fog across the southeast CWA has largely eroded, with
visible satellite imagery showing what`s left from about Olney to
Lawrenceville and fading fast. Sunshine is abundant elsewhere, and
RAP model humidity plots showing little in the way of clouds until
mid afternoon, when a slow increase occurs from the south.
Temperatures have shot up quickly in most areas, already in the
mid 50s in most areas west of US-51. Have increased high
temperatures by a few degrees in most areas, with temperatures
once again near record highs close to 70 degrees over the
southwest CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
A weak frontal boundary lies just south of I-70 corridor early this
morning. Surface temperature/dew point spreads in the vicinity of
this boundary are pretty much nonexistent, and this has resulted in
fog expanding and thickening across the area. The past few runs of
the HRRR have seemed to grab onto this fog, and each run is more
pessimistic on visibilities than the prior run. Based on the latest
visibility and HRRR trends, plan to issue a Dense Fog Advisory for
this area. The cirrus shield overhead is substantial enough to make
it difficult to see the areal extent of the fog, but obviously not
thick enough to help prevent its development. Expect the fog to burn
off after sunrise through both diurnal effects and increasing
southwesterly winds.
Aside from the early morning fog in the southeast, a quiet weather
day is expected across central and southeast Illinois. One more very
mild day (for late February) is anticipated, with most areas topping
out in the 60s. While these readings will be at least a few degrees
cooler than yesterday, it should feel nicer outside due to winds
being much lighter.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
After another unseasonably mild day today across central and
southeast IL with a few sites approaching record highs, temps will
be cooling during early and middle part of next week. 00Z models
push a cold front southward toward Peoria at 00Z/6 pm today, to I-70
by 06Z/midnight tonight and through southeast IL during overnight.
1009 mb surface low pressure over SW KS to drop into north
central OK by sunset today and then lift toward the southern tip
of IL by 12Z/6 am Sunday, and then into northeast KY at 18Z/noon
Sunday. Some increasing moisture and elevated instability into
southern counties tonight with chances of showers from I-72 south
and isolated thunderstorms in southeast IL along and south of a
Shelbyville to Terre Haute line. SPC day1 outlook even has
marginal risk (5%) of hail SW of Clay county tonight. Lows
tonight range from mid 30s northern counties to low to mid 40s in
southeast IL. Chance of rain showers in southeast IL Sunday
morning then dry across area and skies becoming partly sunny. NNW
winds brings cooler highs Sunday ranging from upper 40s ne CWA to
lower 50s SW CWA with mid 50s along and south of highway 50 in
southeast IL.
Canadian high pressure settles SE into the Great Lakes during
Sunday night and Monday along with upper level trof digging into
the area. This continues cooler temps with highs Monday in the low
to mid 40s except upper 40s in southeast IL with partly to mostly
cloudy skies. Highs Tue in the mid to upper 40s with dry
conditions to continue during day Tue.
Extended models are showing a stronger southern stream storm system
developing over the southern plains by Tue evening and deepening
surface low pressure ne into the central Appalachians/eastern Ohio
river valley Wed night. This to bring a chance of rain/snow over
southeast IL Tue night and eastern IL Wed and possibly lingering
near Wabash river valley Wed evening. GEM keeps qpf southeast of CWA
but GFS and ECMWF have trended further west with qpf fields and
blended between these later 2 model solutions. Temps cool further on
Wed/Thu with highs in upper 30s/lower 40s, with southeast IL mid 40s
on Wed. A deep upper level trof over the eastern U.S. late next week
brings below normal temps next Fri/Sat with highs in the mid 30s to
near 40F with lows in the upper teens to mid 20s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
Generally quiet/VFR aviation weather conditions expected across
the central Illinois terminals through the 12Z TAF valid time. A
disturbance/frontal boundary will push across the area tonight,
bringing thicker, but still VFR level CIGs to the area. Also, west
to southwest winds should trend light/variable with the front in
the area tonight.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
558 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
A weak frontal boundary lies just south of I-70 corridor early this
morning. Surface temperature/dew point spreads in the vicinity of
this boundary are pretty much nonexistent, and this has resulted in
fog expanding and thickening across the area. The past few runs of
the HRRR have seemed to grab onto this fog, and each run is more
pessimistic on visibilities than the prior run. Based on the latest
visibility and HRRR trends, plan to issue a Dense Fog Advisory for
this area. The cirrus shield overhead is substantial enough to make
it difficult to see the areal extent of the fog, but obviously not
thick enough to help prevent its development. Expect the fog to burn
off after sunrise through both diurnal effects and increasing
southwesterly winds.
Aside from the early morning fog in the southeast, a quiet weather
day is expected across central and southeast Illinois. One more very
mild day (for late February) is anticipated, with most areas topping
out in the 60s. While these readings will be at least a few degrees
cooler than yesterday, it should feel nicer outside due to winds
being much lighter.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
After another unseasonably mild day today across central and
southeast IL with a few sites approaching record highs, temps will
be cooling during early and middle part of next week. 00Z models
push a cold front southward toward Peoria at 00Z/6 pm today, to I-70
by 06Z/midnight tonight and through southeast IL during overnight.
1009 mb surface low pressure over sw KS to drop into north central
OK by sunset today and then lift toward the southern tip of IL by
12Z/6 am Sunday, and then into northeast KY at 18Z/noon Sunday. Some
increasing moisture and elevated instability into southern counties
tonight with chances of showers from I-72 south and isolated
thunderstorms in southeast IL along and south of a Shelbville to
Terre Haute line. SPC day1 outlook even has marginal risk (5%) of
hail sw of Clay county tonight. Lows tonight range from mid 30s
northern counties to low to mid 40s in southeast IL. Chance of rain
showers in southeast IL Sunday morning then dry across area and
skies becoming partly sunny. NNW winds brings cooler highs Sunday
ranging from upper 40s ne CWA to lower 50s sw CWA with mid 50s along
and south of highway 50 in southeast IL.
Canadian high pressure settles se into the Great Lakes during Sunday
night and Monday along with upper level trof digging into the area.
This continues cooler temps with highs Monday in the low to mid 40s
except upper 40s in southeast IL with partly to mostly cloudy skies.
Highs Tue in the mid to upper 40s with dry conditions to continue
during day Tue.
Extended models are showing a stronger southern stream storm system
developing over the southern plains by Tue evening and deepening
surface low pressure ne into the central Appalachians/eastern Ohio
river valley Wed night. This to bring a chance of rain/snow over
southeast IL Tue night and eastern IL Wed and possibly lingering
near Wabash river valley Wed evening. GEM keeps qpf southeast of CWA
but GFS and ECWMF have trended further west with qpf fields and
blended between these later 2 model solutions. Temps cool further on
Wed/Thu with highs in upper 30s/lower 40s, with southeast IL mid 40s
on Wed. A deep upper level trof over the eastern U.S. late next week
brings below normal temps next Fri/Sat with highs in the mid 30s to
near 40F with lows in the upper teens to mid 20s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
Generally quiet/VFR aviation weather conditions expected across
the central Illinois terminals through the 12Z TAF valid time. A
disturbance/frontal boundary will push across the area tonight,
bringing thicker, but still VFR level CIGs to the area. Also, west
to southwest winds should trend light/variable with the front in
the area tonight.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ILZ066>068-
071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
607 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
STRONG LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ON TO
THE NORTHEAST. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAILING THIS LOW WILL STALL
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA TONIGHT AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
NEAR RECORD HIGHS TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL BECOME MUCH COOLER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO
GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS OUR REGION.
A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS MAY BRING
A CHANCE OF SNOW OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
SATELLITE INDICATED THAT WE WERE UNDER A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH LOTS
OF HIGH THIN CLOUDS ACROSS OUR AREA. AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND EXTENDED EAST INTO THE VINCENNES AREA. WILL MENTION
AREAS OF EARLY MORNING FOG FAR SOUTHWEST AND PATCHY FOG REMAINDER WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH MID MORNING.
ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE POSSIBLE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AS A VERY WARM
AIR MASS CONTINUES ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AS
WARM AS +11 DEGREES CELSIUS ACROSS OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY WERE IN THE LOWER 70S TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS WERE TOO COOL YESTERDAY AND THIS MAY BE THE RESULT AGAIN TODAY.
BOTH THE RAP AND HRR SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NAM
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH ACTUALLY VERIFIED BETTER YESTERDAY. WILL GO WITH A BLEND
TODAY AND GO A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MET AND MAV NUMBERS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT
PUSHING INTO THAT AREA MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE THERE. ANYWAYS WENT
WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 70 SOUTH TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA TONIGHT AND AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SPREADING LIGHT RAIN
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY ENDING IT FROM
THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS DRY.
MODELS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR SOUTH TONIGHT WITH
CAPES OF 500 TO 800 J/KG. WILL ADD MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS TONIGHT. SPC ALSO HAS THIS AREA WITH A RISK OF GENERAL
THUNDER.
LEANED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE WARMER CONSALL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS.
THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. AFTER SUNDAY MORNING IT LOOKS LIKE COOLER...DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S FAR NORTH TONIGHT TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S NORTH TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH
AND WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S ALL AREAS MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
A ROBUST UPPER LOW MAKING IT/S WAY ACROSS THE U.S. WILL BE THE
WEATHER MAKER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE LONG TERM. THE
LATEST OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS ARE TRENDING WEST WITH THE SURFACE
LOW FROM THIS SYSTEM AND NOW BRING IT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND UP THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. THIS TRACK PRODUCES
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...ALBEIT MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCES...TO THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE LOW MAKES ITS WAY FROM
SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE INTO OHIO. GIVEN THE MORE WESTWARD TREND WILL
MAINTAIN SMALL POPS GIVEN BY THE INITIALIZATION AND IF TREND
CONTINUES MAY NEED TO INCREASE WITH LATER FORECASTS. FOR PTYPE
GENERALLY USED A RAIN/SNOW MIX DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY WHERE RAIN APPEARS MORE LIKELY BASED ON
FORECAST TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 201200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 559 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
KHUF AND KBMG WILL HAVE SOME IFR AND LOWER FOG TO START OUT WITH
BUT SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AROUND 13-15Z. THE REST OF THE
DAY SHOULD BE VFR WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING.
TONIGHT MVFR CEILINGS AND RAIN WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST SO
EXPECT TO SEE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AT KBMG AND KHUF. MUCH LOWER
CONFIDENCE THAT RAIN WILL GET AS FAR NORTH AS KIND. COULD SEE A
FEW WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 20 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY TONIGHT AROUND 5-10 KTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
618 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 618 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
MINOR UPDATE TO THE WEATHER TYPE BY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW THROUGH
15Z...THEN A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT
FOR MORE CLOUDS. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WAS MOVING THROUGH MN AT 08Z WHILE THE SFC LOW
THAT PLAGUED THE AREA YESTERDAY WAS IN EASTERN ONTARIO. A SFC TROF
WAS LOCATED OVER NE MN ALONG THE IRON RANGE. TEMPS NORTH OF THE TROF
WERE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S...WHILE SOUTH OF THE TROF TEMPS WERE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. SOME LIGHT PCPN WAS OCCURRING ALONG
THE TROF IN CONJUNCTION WITH A VORTICITY MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROF. MAINLY SNOW WAS FOUND NORTH OF THE TROF...A RAIN/SNOW
MIX ALONG THE TROF...AND SOME SPRINKLES SOUTH OF THE TROF IN THE
AREA OF HIGHEST RADAR RETURNS. EXPECT THIS BATCH OF PCPN TO END
QUICKLY AS THE FORCING MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
NEXT BATCH OF PCPN ARRIVES AFTER 12Z AS A SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH A POTENT
LITTLE VORT MAX CROSSES INTO NORTHERN MN THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW EARLY IN THE MORNING BEFORE MIXING WITH RAIN BY
MID TO LATE MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF FLATTENS
OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE VORT MAX DISSOLVES. WILL STILL SEE SOME
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND LIGHT RAIN
FROM THE TWIN PORTS EWD ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BEFORE DIMINISHING IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON.
MORE LIGHT PCPN IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR THE EASTERN BOUNDARY
WATERS CANOE AREA WILDERNESS AS A WEAK...BUT FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE
CLIPS THIS AREA. WITH COLDER AIR LOCATED OVER THIS AREA...THE PTYPE
WILL BE SNOW. AMOUNTS WILL BE A TRACE. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT BETTER
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
NORTHERN MN. THERE IS WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM ANOTHER PIECE OF
FAST MOVING ENERGY GLANCING THE REGION IN A FAST NW FLOW ALOFT. SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. THERE IS A GROWING OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OVERNIGHT.
THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN WIND DIRECTION
OVER THE LAKE. THIS WILL AFFECT FETCH AND PLACEMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS
AS WELL AS AMOUNTS. HIGHEST CHANCE POPS WILL BE OVER THE GOGEBIC
RANGE.
ON SUNDAY...ONE MORE SHORT WAVE TROF CROSSES OVER THE REGION AS THE
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA. EXPECT TO SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER ALL BUT THE CANADIAN BORDER REGION SUNDAY
MORNING AS A RESULT. HIGHEST CHANCE POPS WILL BE AROUND LAKE
SUPERIOR DUE TO THESE FEATURES. PLUS...THE WIND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE NE BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE TWIN PORTS AND SOME OF THE NORTH SHORE.
THE TROF AND COLD FRONT EXIT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE POPS
LOWERING IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE HIGHER CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE THE NE WIND PERSISTS. SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND PROVIDING OPPORTUNITIES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WE CUT
LOWS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHERE WE HAVE LOWS BELOW ZERO.
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
SHORE...BUT LACK OF LARGER SCALE LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP
ACCUMULATIONS MINIMAL.
A COUPLE SHORTWAVES AND LOW LEVEL WAA WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR AN INCH OR TWO OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THERE COULD
BE A MIX OVER SOUTHERN AREAS AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN
A CHANCE FOR MORE LIGHT SNOW WILL RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER TWENTIES TO MID THIRTIES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN DROP INTO THE TWENTIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS COVERED MOST OF THE NORTHLAND EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH SPOTTY DRIZZLE/LIGHT SNOW. A SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND SPREAD AN AREA OF SNOW/LIGHT RAIN
AND POSSIBLE SLEET TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AREA RADARS SHOWED THE
MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IN NORTHEAST/EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...MOVING SOUTHEAST. A 1 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MOST LIKELY AS THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION IN HOW MUCH OF THE LOWER CEILINGS WILL
LIFT/DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE WAVE EXITS. WE WENT
CLOSER TO THE RAP WHICH KEEPS CEILINGS IN LONGER.
A SECOND WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHLAND LATER TONIGHT AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR WITH
IT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 38 19 26 8 / 40 20 40 10
INL 34 9 20 -2 / 40 20 0 0
BRD 37 19 28 11 / 0 20 20 0
HYR 38 22 30 7 / 10 10 20 10
ASX 40 22 28 9 / 30 20 40 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
546 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WAS MOVING THROUGH MN AT 08Z WHILE THE SFC LOW
THAT PLAGUED THE AREA YESTERDAY WAS IN EASTERN ONTARIO. A SFC TROF
WAS LOCATED OVER NE MN ALONG THE IRON RANGE. TEMPS NORTH OF THE TROF
WERE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S...WHILE SOUTH OF THE TROF TEMPS WERE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. SOME LIGHT PCPN WAS OCCURRING ALONG
THE TROF IN CONJUNCTION WITH A VORTICITY MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROF. MAINLY SNOW WAS FOUND NORTH OF THE TROF...A RAIN/SNOW
MIX ALONG THE TROF...AND SOME SPRINKLES SOUTH OF THE TROF IN THE
AREA OF HIGHEST RADAR RETURNS. EXPECT THIS BATCH OF PCPN TO END
QUICKLY AS THE FORCING MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
NEXT BATCH OF PCPN ARRIVES AFTER 12Z AS A SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH A POTENT
LITTLE VORT MAX CROSSES INTO NORTHERN MN THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW EARLY IN THE MORNING BEFORE MIXING WITH RAIN BY
MID TO LATE MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF FLATTENS
OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE VORT MAX DISSOLVES. WILL STILL SEE SOME
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND LIGHT RAIN
FROM THE TWIN PORTS EWD ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BEFORE DIMINISHING IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON.
MORE LIGHT PCPN IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR THE EASTERN BOUNDARY
WATERS CANOE AREA WILDERNESS AS A WEAK...BUT FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE
CLIPS THIS AREA. WITH COLDER AIR LOCATED OVER THIS AREA...THE PTYPE
WILL BE SNOW. AMOUNTS WILL BE A TRACE. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT BETTER
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
NORTHERN MN. THERE IS WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM ANOTHER PIECE OF
FAST MOVING ENERGY GLANCING THE REGION IN A FAST NW FLOW ALOFT. SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. THERE IS A GROWING OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OVERNIGHT.
THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN WIND DIRECTION
OVER THE LAKE. THIS WILL AFFECT FETCH AND PLACEMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS
AS WELL AS AMOUNTS. HIGHEST CHANCE POPS WILL BE OVER THE GOGEBIC
RANGE.
ON SUNDAY...ONE MORE SHORT WAVE TROF CROSSES OVER THE REGION AS THE
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA. EXPECT TO SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER ALL BUT THE CANADIAN BORDER REGION SUNDAY
MORNING AS A RESULT. HIGHEST CHANCE POPS WILL BE AROUND LAKE
SUPERIOR DUE TO THESE FEATURES. PLUS...THE WIND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE NE BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE TWIN PORTS AND SOME OF THE NORTH SHORE.
THE TROF AND COLD FRONT EXIT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE POPS
LOWERING IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE HIGHER CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE THE NE WIND PERSISTS. SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND PROVIDING OPPORTUNITIES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WE CUT
LOWS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHERE WE HAVE LOWS BELOW ZERO.
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
SHORE...BUT LACK OF LARGER SCALE LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP
ACCUMULATIONS MINIMAL.
A COUPLE SHORTWAVES AND LOW LEVEL WAA WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR AN INCH OR TWO OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THERE COULD
BE A MIX OVER SOUTHERN AREAS AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN
A CHANCE FOR MORE LIGHT SNOW WILL RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER TWENTIES TO MID THIRTIES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN DROP INTO THE TWENTIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS COVERED MOST OF THE NORTHLAND EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH SPOTTY DRIZZLE/LIGHT SNOW. A SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND SPREAD AN AREA OF SNOW/LIGHT RAIN
AND POSSIBLE SLEET TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AREA RADARS SHOWED THE
MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IN NORTHEAST/EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...MOVING SOUTHEAST. A 1 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MOST LIKELY AS THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION IN HOW MUCH OF THE LOWER CEILINGS WILL
LIFT/DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE WAVE EXITS. WE WENT
CLOSER TO THE RAP WHICH KEEPS CEILINGS IN LONGER.
A SECOND WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHLAND LATER TONIGHT AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR WITH
IT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 38 19 26 8 / 40 20 40 10
INL 34 9 20 -2 / 40 20 0 0
BRD 37 19 28 11 / 0 20 20 0
HYR 38 22 30 7 / 10 10 20 10
ASX 40 22 28 9 / 30 20 40 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
659 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 659 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS HAS BEEN REPORTED AT
VALLEY CITY AND GRAND FORKS...WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LIGHT SNOW ALONG AND WEST OF A WARROAD TO
RED LAKE FALLS TO HILLSBORO TO CASSELTON LINE. THE LIGHT SNOW
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE BEMIDJI AREA BY NOON. HAVE UPDATED POPS TO
EXTEND MENTION OF SCT SHSN FURTHER SOUTH. NO CHANGES TO OTHER
SENSIBLE ELEMENTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM WILL BE
CHANCES OF SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OVERALL
THE NAM/GFS/GEM ARE OVERDOING QPFS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER
WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. CURRENT
RADAR DEPICTING A REGION OF WEAKENING RASN OVER THE CENTRAL VALLEY
AND MORE WEAK ECHOES OVER SW MANITOBA. THIS LATTER AREA IS PROGGED
BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER NE ND...WHILE THE
LATEST RAP BRINGS A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF TWO TO THREE
HUNDREDTHS OF QPFS INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND NW MN BY
12Z...WEAKENING MORE AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE REGION
BY 17Z. THE RAP SOLUTION BEST REPRESENTS CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND
WILL USE IT FOR POP/QPF GUIDANCE.
A SFC RIDGE THEN EXTENDS INTO THE VALLEY FROM A CANADIAN HIGH FOR
THE MIDDLE PORTION OF SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY BUT CLOUDY
WEATHER AS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION ON LATEST RAP H925-H850 LAYER RH THAT THE NORTHERN
VALLEY COULD SEE CLEARING BY MID MORNING AND FILL BACK IN LATER
IN THE DAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR BUT KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY IN SKY
GRID FOR NOW.
A WEAK CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
THE UPPER WAVE OVER SE ALBERTA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL
ND BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NAM BRINGS ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOW INTO FAR
WRN ZONES BY 03Z-09Z TIMEFRAME...WITH GFS A BIT SOONER AND WITH
HIGHER QPFS. MODELS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH A BAND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY IN THE 09Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME. USING A FCST
BLEND...AROUND ONE HALF INCH IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWESTERN ZONES
(SOUTHEASTERN ND AND THE SOUTHERN VALLEY). CANADIAN SFC HIGH THEN
MOVES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE SOUTH IS POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE
NORTH BY SUN AFTN...WITH MUCH COLDER DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM...WITH A MINOR VORT
MAX MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY ON MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE...SO NOT MUCH OVER A DUSTING IS EXPECTED.
FOR TUE THROUGH FRI...OVERALL NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES...BUT SHORTWAVES VERY HARD TO TIME SO WILL STICK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE. THE GFS BRINGS DOWN AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT NEXT
FRI WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH WARMER AND DELAYED WITH THIS FRONT...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS POTENTIAL LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
MAINLY MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TODAY. LIGHT SNOW IN THE GFK..TVF AND
BJI THIS MORNING WILL END BY 18Z. MORE LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL
TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF A DVL-FAR LINE. CIGS MAY FALL
TO IFR CONDS LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
408 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM WILL BE
CHANCES OF SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OVERALL
THE NAM/GFS/GEM ARE OVERDOING QPFS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER
WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. CURRENT
RADAR DEPICTING A REGION OF WEAKENING RASN OVER THE CENTRAL VALLEY
AND MORE WEAK ECHOES OVER SW MANITOBA. THIS LATTER AREA IS PROGGED
BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER NE ND...WHILE THE
LATEST RAP BRINGS A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF TWO TO THREE
HUNDREDTHS OF QPFS INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND NW MN BY
12Z...WEAKENING MORE AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE REGION
BY 17Z. THE RAP SOLUTION BEST REPRESENTS CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND
WILL USE IT FOR POP/QPF GUIDANCE.
A SFC RIDGE THEN EXTENDS INTO THE VALLEY FROM A CANADIAN HIGH FOR
THE MIDDLE PORTION OF SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY BUT CLOUDY
WEATHER AS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION ON LATEST RAP H925-H850 LAYER RH THAT THE NORTHERN
VALLEY COULD SEE CLEARING BY MID MORNING AND FILL BACK IN LATER
IN THE DAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR BUT KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY IN SKY
GRID FOR NOW.
A WEAK CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
THE UPPER WAVE OVER SE ALBERTA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL
ND BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NAM BRINGS ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOW INTO FAR
WRN ZONES BY 03Z-09Z TIMEFRAME...WITH GFS A BIT SOONER AND WITH
HIGHER QPFS. MODELS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH A BAND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY IN THE 09Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME. USING A FCST
BLEND...AROUND ONE HALF INCH IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWESTERN ZONES
(SOUTHEASTERN ND AND THE SOUTHERN VALLEY). CANADIAN SFC HIGH THEN
MOVES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE SOUTH IS POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE
NORTH BY SUN AFTN...WITH MUCH COLDER DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM...WITH A MINOR VORT
MAX MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY ON MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE...SO NOT MUCH OVER A DUSTING IS EXPECTED.
FOR TUE THROUGH FRI...OVERALL NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES...BUT SHORTWAVES VERY HARD TO TIME SO WILL STICK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE. THE GFS BRINGS DOWN AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT NEXT
FRI WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH WARMER AND DELAYED WITH THIS FRONT...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS POTENTIAL LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
GENERALLY VFR CIGS WERE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MVFR CIGS WERE OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS
ALONG THE ND/MAN BORDER. EXPECT MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH
TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. CIGS SHOULD GO BACK UP TO MVFR TO
VFR CONDITIONS SAT MID MORNING STARTING IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...HOPPES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
720 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF MILDER AIR WILL OCCUR TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA. COOLER AIR WILL SLOWLY EDGE
BACK INTO THE KEYSTONE STATE LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO
OUR SOUTH. A BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR
MONDAY. A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A ONE OR MORE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THEN MOVING NORTHEAST
ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAIN CHAIN OR NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
THESE WEATHER FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING A FEW ROUNDS OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION OR POSSIBLY A SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION DURING THE
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME-FRAME.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERCAST...ALTO CU DECK /ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF A WARM FRONT/
HAS BEEN PUSHED QUICKLY TO EAST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND MUCH MILDER TEMPS WERE
OVERSPREADING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE ATTM.
STRONG LLVL WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SW /WITH UPSTREAM TEMPS
ACROSS SWRN PENN AND OHIO IN THE 50S/ WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO RISE
STEADILY THIS MORNING...STARTING OUT IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
REGION ALONG AND EAST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY /AND RISING FROM THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE/.
21Z/03Z SREF...00/06Z OPER GUIDANCE...AND 20/06Z HRRR ALL
CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...ALONG
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE /MIXED WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS ACROSS
SOUTHERN PENN/.
IT WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE SW...GUSTING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH
AT TIMES...WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE RIDGES.
BASED ON A BLEND OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE /WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR/
AND EXPERIENCE WITH STRONG WEST TO SW FLOW...EXPECT QUITE MILD
TEMPS BY THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN WITH THE SNOWPACK. HIGHS TODAY WILL
BE IN THE 50-55F RANGE ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...AND MID TO UPPER 50S
ELSEWHERE. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT SOME PLACES ACROSS SOUTHERN PENN
WILL SEE TEMPS REACH 60 OR 61F...WHERE DOWNSLOPING EFFECT WILL BE
MAXIMIZED.
ALTHOUGH THESE TEMPS WILL BE 15 TO 20F ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE
DATE...THEY/LL FALL WELL SHORT OF RECORD HIGHS...WHICH ARE 67F AT
KIPT AND 72F AT KMDT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TRACKS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SKIES WILL START OUT PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING LATER ON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GLAKES
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS
THE NORTH...AND MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE.
MODEL DIFFERENCES HAVE LESSENED WITH RESPECT TO THE WEAK WAVE OF
SFC LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO RACE QUICKLY EAST FROM THE LOWER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY...TO A LOCATION JUST OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
NRN EDGE OF THE GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIP /RAIN/ SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FLAT UPPER WAVE AND SFC LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
PENN. A BLEND OF THE LATEST...03Z SREF AND 00Z EC SUGGESTS THAT
LIGHT QPF COULD MAKE IT NEAR OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF I-80 IN
CENTRAL PENN...WHILE THE OPERATIONAL NAM AND GFS KEEP THE BULK OF
PRECIP JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON LINE. 925-850 MB WET BULB
TEMPS SLIDE A FEW DEG C BELOW 0 BY EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT /BETWEEN
THE RT22/322 CORRIDOR AND INTERSTATE 80/...WHICH COULD ALLOW THE
RAIN TO MIX WITH...OR CHANGE OVER TO A LITTLE WET SNOW BEFORE THE
WAVE SCOOTS EAST AND OFFICE THE MA COAST. ANY SNOW ACCUMS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ON COLDER GRASSY AREAS SUN NIGHT APPEAR TO
BE UNDER ONE INCH.
THE PRECIP END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT...WITH SKIES
STAYING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER ON MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING RISK FOR
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION OR RAIN LATE
TUE-THU. CONFIDENCE IN SOME FORM OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING
REMAINS QUITE HIGH AND THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED/SLIGHTLY
INCREASED POPS INTO THE 50-70 PERCENT RANGE.
HOWEVER...THE EXACT LOCATION/TIMING/DISTRIBUTION/AMOUNTS OF
WINTRY PCPN OR EVEN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN (AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS)
DEPEND ON UNCERTAIN DETAILS SUCH AS THE LOW TRACK FROM ONE OR TWO
SYSTEMS. LATEST 00Z EC AND 00Z/06Z GEFS HAVE TRENDED FAR ENOUGH
WEST...BRINGING ONE PRIMARY SFC LOW UP ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
THIS WOULD IMPLY /COUPLED WITH A DEPARTING NRN NEW ENGLAND HIGH/
THAT COLD AIR WOULD BE QUITE SHALLOW AND CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING A
PERIOD OF SNOW OR MIXED PREIP...MAINLY DURING THE FIRST THIRD OF
THE EVENT - LATE TUES INTO WED.
DECISION MAKERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS WITH
POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER OR HEAVY RAIN IMPACTS CENTERED AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND LOWER TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FROM THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS...BUT WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SATURDAY WILL BE A
BREEZY AND MILD DAY WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. LLWS WILL BE
AN ISSUE WITH GUSTY WINDS ALOFT AND MVFR APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT AFTER 00Z AND CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR BY 06Z FOR WESTERN TAF
SITES.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH RAIN OR SNOW...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MON-TUE...REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH SNOW OR RAIN.
WED...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
716 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF MILDER AIR WILL OCCUR TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA. COOLER AIR WILL SLOWLY EDGE
BACK INTO THE KEYSTONE STATE LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO
OUR SOUTH. A BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR
MONDAY. A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A ONE OR MORE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THEN MOVING NORTHEAST
ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAIN CHAIN OR NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
THESE WEATHER FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING A FEW ROUNDS OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION OR POSSIBLY A SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION DURING THE
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME-FRAME.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERCAST...ALTO CU DECK /ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF A WARM FRONT/
HAS BEEN PUSHED QUICKLY TO EAST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND MUCH MILDER TEMPS WERE
OVERSPREADING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE ATTM.
STRONG LLVL WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SW /WITH UPSTREAM TEMPS
ACROSS SWRN PENN AND OHIO IN THE 50S/ WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO RISE
STEADILY THIS MORNING...STARTING OUT IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
REGION ALONG AND EAST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY /AND RISING FROM THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE/.
21Z/03Z SREF...00/06Z OPER GUIDANCE...AND 20/06Z HRRR ALL
CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...ALONG
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE /MIXED WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS ACROSS
SOUTHERN PENN/.
IT WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE SW...GUSTING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH
AT TIMES...WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE RIDGES.
BASED ON A BLEND OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE /WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR/
AND EXPERIENCE WITH STRONG WEST TO SW FLOW...EXPECT QUITE MILD
TEMPS BY THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN WITH THE SNOWPACK. HIGHS TODAY WILL
BE IN THE 50-55F RANGE ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...AND MID TO UPPER 50S
ELSEWHERE. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT SOME PLACES ACROSS SOUTHERN PENN
WILL SEE TEMPS REACH 60 OR 61F...WHERE DOWNSLOPING EFFECT WILL BE
MAXIMIZED.
ALTHOUGH THESE TEMPS WILL BE 15 TO 20F ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE
DATE...THEY/LL FALL WELL SHORT OF RECORD HIGHS...WHICH ARE 67F AT
KIPT AND 72F AT KMDT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TRACKS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SKIES WILL START OUT PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING LATER ON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GLAKES
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS
THE NORTH...AND MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE.
MODEL DIFFERENCES HAVE LESSENED WITH RESPECT TO THE WEAK WAVE OF
SFC LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO RACE QUICKLY EAST FROM THE LOWER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY...TO A LOCATION JUST OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
NRN EDGE OF THE GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIP /RAIN/ SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FLAT UPPER WAVE AND SFC LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
PENN. A BLEND OF THE LATEST...03Z SREF AND 00Z EC SUGGESTS THAT
LIGHT QPF COULD MAKE IT NEAR OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF I-80 IN
CENTRAL PENN...WHILE THE OPERATIONAL NAM AND GFS KEEP THE BULK OF
PRECIP JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON LINE. 925-850 MB WET BULB
TEMPS SLIDE A FEW DEG C BELOW 0 BY EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT /BETWEEN
THE RT22/322 CORRIDOR AND INTERSTATE 80/...WHICH COULD ALLOW THE
RAIN TO MIX WITH...OR CHANGE OVER TO A LITTLE WET SNOW BEFORE THE
WAVE SCOOTS EAST AND OFFICE THE MA COAST. ANY SNOW ACCUMS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ON COLDER GRASSY AREAS SUN NIGHT APPEAR TO
BE UNDER ONE INCH.
THE PRECIP END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT...WITH SKIES
STAYING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER ON MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING RISK FOR
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION OR RAIN LATE
TUE-THU. CONFIDENCE IN SOME FORM OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING
REMAINS QUITE HIGH AND THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED/SLIGHTLY
INCREASED POPS INTO THE 50-70 PERCENT RANGE.
HOWEVER...THE EXACT LOCATION/TIMING/DISTRIBUTION/AMOUNTS OF
WINTRY PCPN OR EVEN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN (AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS)
DEPEND ON UNCERTAIN DETAILS SUCH AS THE LOW TRACK FROM ONE OR TWO
SYSTEMS. LATEST 00Z EC AND 00Z/06Z GEFS HAVE TRENDED FAR ENOUGH
WEST...BRINGING ONE PRIMARY SFC LOW UP ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
THIS WOULD IMPLY /COUPLED WITH A DEPARTING NRN NEW ENGLAND HIGH/
THAT COLD AIR WOULD BE QUITE SHALLOW AND CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING A
PERIOD OF SNOW OR MIXED PREIP...MAINLY DURING THE FIRST THIRD OF
THE EVENT - LATE TUES INTO WED.
DECISION MAKERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS WITH
POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER OR HEAVY RAIN IMPACTS CENTERED AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND LOWER TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FROM THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS...BUT WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SATURDAY WILL BE A
BREEZY AND MILD DAY WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH RAIN OR SNOW...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MON-TUE...REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH SNOW OR RAIN.
WED...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
620 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF MILDER AIR WILL OCCUR TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA. COOLER AIR WILL SLOWLY EDGE
BACK INTO THE KEYSTONE STATE LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO
OUR SOUTH. A BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR
MONDAY. A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A ONE OR MORE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THEN MOVING NORTHEAST
ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAIN CHAIN OR NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
THESE WEATHER FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING A FEW ROUNDS OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION OR POSSIBLY A SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION DURING THE
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME-FRAME.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERCAST...ALTO CU DECK /ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF A WARM FRONT/
HAS BEEN PUSHED QUICKLY TO EAST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND MUCH MILDER TEMPS WERE
OVERSPREADING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE ATTM.
STRONG LLVL WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SW /WITH UPSTREAM TEMPS
ACROSS SWRN PENN AND OHIO IN THE 50S/ WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO RISE
STEADILY THIS MORNING...STARTING OUT IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
REGION ALONG AND EAST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY /AND RISING FROM THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE/.
21Z/03Z SREF...00/06Z OPER GUIDANCE...AND 20/06Z HRRR ALL
CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...ALONG
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE /MIXED WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS ACROSS
SOUTHERN PENN/.
IT WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE SW...GUSTING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH
AT TIMES...WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE RIDGES.
BASED ON A BLEND OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE /WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR/
AND EXPERIENCE WITH STRONG WEST TO SW FLOW...EXPECT QUITE MILD
TEMPS BY THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN WITH THE SNOWPACK. HIGHS TODAY WILL
BE IN THE 50-55F RANGE ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...AND MID TO UPPER 50S
ELSEWHERE. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT SOME PLACES ACROSS SOUTHERN PENN
WILL SEE TEMPS REACH 60 OR 61F...WHERE DOWNSLOPING EFFECT WILL BE
MAXIMIZED.
ALTHOUGH THESE TEMPS WILL BE 15 TO 20F ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE
DATE...THEY/LL FALL WELL SHORT OF RECORD HIGHS...WHICH ARE 67F AT
KIPT AND 72F AT KMDT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TRACKS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SKIES WILL START OUT PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING LATER ON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GLAKES
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS
THE NORTH...AND MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE.
MODEL DIFFERENCES HAVE LESSENED WITH RESPECT TO THE WEAK WAVE OF
SFC LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO RACE QUICKLY EAST FROM THE LOWER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY...TO A LOCATION JUST OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
NRN EDGE OF THE GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIP /RAIN/ SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FLAT UPPER WAVE AND SFC LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
PENN. A BLEND OF THE LATEST...03Z SREF AND 00Z EC SUGGESTS THAT
LIGHT QPF COULD MAKE IT NEAR OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF I-80 IN
CENTRAL PENN...WHILE THE OPERATIONAL NAM AND GFS KEEP THE BULK OF
PRECIP JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON LINE. 925-850 MB WET BULB
TEMPS SLIDE A FEW DEG C BELOW 0 BY EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT /BETWEEN
THE RT22/322 CORRIDOR AND INTERSTATE 80/...WHICH COULD ALLOW THE
RAIN TO MIX WITH...OR CHANGE OVER TO A LITTLE WET SNOW BEFORE THE
WAVE SCOOTS EAST AND OFFICE THE MA COAST. ANY SNOW ACCUMS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ON COLDER GRASSY AREAS SUN NIGHT APPEAR TO
BE UNDER ONE INCH.
THE PRECIP END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT...WITH SKIES
STAYING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER ON MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING RISK FOR
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION TUE-THU. CONFIDENCE
IN SOME FORM OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH
AND THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED POPS INTO THE 50-70 PERCENT
RANGE...HOWEVER THE EXACT LOCATION/TIMING/DISTRIBUTION/AMOUNTS OF
WINTRY PCPN (AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS) DEPEND ON UNCERTAIN DETAILS
SUCH AS THE LOW TRACK FROM ONE OR TWO SYSTEMS. ODDS FOR BIG SNOW
TOTALS REMAIN LOW BUT NON-ZERO. DECISION MAKERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FORECASTS WITH POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS CENTERED
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND LOWER TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FROM THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS...BUT WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SATURDAY WILL BE A
BREEZY AND MILD DAY WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH RAIN OR SNOW...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MON-TUE...REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH SNOW OR RAIN.
WED...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
533 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE CONCERN TODAY AND
TONIGHT. 20.09Z ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT
FROM NEAR ALBERT LEA TO JUST WEST OF EAU CLAIRE. LOW-LEVEL COLD
AIR ADVECTION REGIME BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE REINFORCED BY A
WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. RAP 0.5 KM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OUTPUT SUGGESTS
A MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS
FROM THE NORTH SO THAT MOST AREAS ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS IDEA IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE NSSL WRF SYNTHETIC
SATELLITE IMAGERY. INCREASING CLOUDS AND DECREASING 925 HPA
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
CHECK...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WI TO
THE MID-UPPER 40S ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST WI.
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...SNOW MELT WILL CONTINUE
ALLOWING AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RISE. A SUSPECTED ICE JAM IS
LIKELY OCCURRING ALONG THE GRANT RIVER NEAR BURTON EARLY THIS
MORNING. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. ADDITIONAL
ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE AS RIVER ICE BREAKS UP AND MOVES DOWNSTREAM.
TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT DRY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S AND A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
A STRONGER SHORT-WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY SWEEP
ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIP. THE STRONGEST 500 TO 300 HPA POSITIVE
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY 18Z. AS A
RESULT...THE BEST LIFT MOVES THROUGH BEFORE LOW-LEVEL SATURATION
CAN OCCUR...LIMITING PRECIP POTENTIAL. WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT
BELOW FREEZING...PRECIP TYPE WILL DEPEND ON NEAR SURFACE
VALUES. THUS...A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE BUT LIQUID AMOUNTS
WILL BE MINIMAL...GENERALLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OR LESS. IF SNOW DOES
DEVELOP FOR COLDER AREAS...LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
AFTER A DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE REGION...THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
ON TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS WAVE IS MORE IMPRESSIVE
COMPARED TO SUNDAY/S SYSTEM. SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BISECT THE
FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY 18Z...BUT MODEST WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. ONCE AGAIN...PRECIP TYPE WILL DEPEND
ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS STRUGGLE WITH TIMING/STRENGTH OF
ADDITIONAL SHORT-WAVES AS BROADER SYNOPTIC PATTERN TRANSITIONS
TO A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES
THURSDAY...BUT OTHERWISE A DRY FORECAST TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. OVERALL...A COOLER PERIOD WITH DAILY HIGHS AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
CLEAR SKIES/VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 16Z-17Z. MORE
NORTHWESTERLY SFC-700MB FLOW TO THEN ADVECT SOME LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUDS /MAINLY MVFR/ SOUTHEAST INTO/ACROSS THE TAF SITES
FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE STUCK UNDER
A RATHER STRONG INVERSION NEAR 900MB...THE THE CLOUDS THEN LOOK TO
PERSIST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS EVEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15KTS THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NORTHWEST/NORTH AND CONTINUE TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
THE GRANT RIVER NEAR BURTON IN GRANT COUNTY WISCONSIN HAS RISEN
APPROXIMATELY 13 FT SINCE FRIDAY AT 18Z AND IS NOW ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE OF 18 FT. THIS IS MORE INDICATIVE OF AN ICE JAM THAN SNOW
MELT RUNOFF WHEN COMPARED TO OTHER NEARBY RIVER GAUGES. LAW
ENFORCEMENT REPORTED SLOW WATER MOVEMENT AT THE COUNTY ROAD N
OVERPASS...BUT VISIBILITY WAS LIMITED DUE TO NIGHTFALL. IT IS
ASSUMED AN ICE JAM DOWNSTREAM IS CAUSING THESE WATER RISES. A
FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED IN THE VICINITY OF BURTON AND WILL
BE REASSESSED AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION. OTHERWISE...ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW
FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT RUNOFF TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE RIVER
SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL RISES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
OTHER ICE JAMS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM....ROGERS
AVIATION.....RRS
HYDROLOGY....ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
246 PM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THERE ARE A FEW WEAKER SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW...BUT BASICALLY THE OVERALL PATTERN
CONSISTS OF PROGRESSIVE WEST TO EAST FLOW ALOFT. SOUTHERN STREAM
JET ARRIVES OVER THE BAJA REGION OF MEXICO BEFORE TURNING EAST AND
MOVING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. THIS ENERGY WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND KEEP THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OFF TO THE NORTH AS WELL.
12Z KTBW SOUNDING SHOWS THE DRYNESS OF THE OVERALL COLUMN QUITE
WELL. STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS PRESENT AT 870MB...WITH
MARKED DRYING ABOVE THIS LEVEL.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE OUR REGION
ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. WEAK LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE AXIS IS TRAPPING MOISTURE
UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION NOTED ABOVE ON THE KTBW SOUNDING. EARLIER
STRATUS UNDER THIS INVERSION HAS MIXED OUT TO A SCT-BKN CUMULUS
FIELD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. DIURNAL MIXING WAS STRONG
ENOUGH ON FRIDAY TO MIX PAST THE LEVEL OF TODAYS INVERSION...AND
IF THIS CAN OCCUR AGAIN...THEN WE WILL LIKELY MIX OUT MOST OF
THESE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ENTIRELY BY THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS.
TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY PLEASANT
FOR FEBRUARY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
REACHING THE MIDDLE 70S. A FEW NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS MAY SEE UPPER
70S BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD...ONLY ACTING TO LIGHTEN THE GRADIENT FURTHER. THE
LIGHT GRADIENT AND STRONG TERRESTRIAL HEATING (GIVEN THE CURRENT
SHELF WATER TEMPS) FORCES A FEEBLE SEABREEZE (ALREADY SEEN IN A
FEW COASTAL OBS) TO DEVELOP AT THE BEACHES. THIS BREEZE SHOULD
NOT PENETRATE ALL THAT FAR INLAND...BUT WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
IMMEDIATE SHORELINE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
SIMPLY NOT A WHOLE LOT OF SENSIBLE WEATHER TO TALK ABOUT THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE PUBLIC FORECAST IS RATHER
QUIET WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND DAYLIGHT HOURS OF
SUNDAY...WHILE ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST CONDITIONS FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL DIP A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH ON SUNDAY...BUT GENERALLY STILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH. MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS DURING SUNDAY
WITH THIS CLOSER JET ENERGY...BUT THIS WOULD ONLY ACT TO POSSIBLY
FILTER THE SUN AT TIMES. THE OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
REMAIN QUITE DRY...WITH LITTLE TO NO SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT.
THEREFORE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN NEAR ZERO. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 NORTH OF I-4...AND IN THE 50S FURTHER
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RECOVER WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST
INLAND LOCATIONS. THE IMMEDIATE COAST SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON...KEEPING TEMPS DOWN BY SEVERAL
DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...
BROAD TROUGHING INITIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S WILL GRADUALLY
SHARPEN AS A COUPLE OF IMPULSES ROLL THROUGH WITH THE SECOND AND
MORE ROBUST IMPULSE DEEPENING INTO A LOW OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
TO OHIO VALLEYS WED AND THU. THE TWO IMPULSES WILL PUSH TWO FRONTS
DOWN ACROSS THE AREA...THE FIRST MON-TUE AND THE SECOND WED AND
EARLY THU...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING OUT OF THE STATE. THE
FRONTS WILL PROVIDE SOME MODEST RAIN CHANCES AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDER-
STORMS. ALTHOUGH THE BEST ENERGY WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES
RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL.
LATER THU THROUGH SAT: THE EASTERN TROUGHINESS EXITS TO THE EAST AS AN
UPPER RIDGE MOVES ONSHORE THE WESTERN STATES WITH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES THEN SETTLES IN OVER THE GULF AND FL. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF
SOME. WIND INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND APPROACH CAUTION
TO ADVISORY SPEEDS...THEN DIMINISH FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SEEN ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER A SCT-BKN CUMULUS FIELD. CUMULUS BASES ARE AROUND
4-5KFT...AND THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SOMEWHAT
TOWARD SUNSET. WILL BE WATCHING FOR PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AROUND KLAL/KPGD.
AFTER ANY EARLY MORING VIS RESTRICTIONS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
AGAIN PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR
LESS. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY BRINGING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES. A COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND CROSSES THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WITH POSSIBLE SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. DESPITE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS AND NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
WILL ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER
FRONT AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL LATER WEDNESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THURSDAY.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY INLAND LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY
ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 57 74 59 76 / 0 0 0 10
FMY 57 78 60 80 / 0 10 10 20
GIF 55 77 58 80 / 0 0 10 10
SRQ 56 71 56 75 / 0 0 10 0
BKV 51 76 50 78 / 0 0 0 10
SPG 59 73 61 76 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1112 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
Dense fog across the southeast CWA has largely eroded, with
visible satellite imagery showing what`s left from about Olney to
Lawrenceville and fading fast. Sunshine is abundant elsewhere, and
RAP model humidity plots showing little in the way of clouds until
mid afternoon, when a slow increase occurs from the south.
Temperatures have shot up quickly in most areas, already in the
mid 50s in most areas west of US-51. Have increased high
temperatures by a few degrees in most areas, with temperatures
once again near record highs close to 70 degrees over the
southwest CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
A weak frontal boundary lies just south of I-70 corridor early this
morning. Surface temperature/dew point spreads in the vicinity of
this boundary are pretty much nonexistent, and this has resulted in
fog expanding and thickening across the area. The past few runs of
the HRRR have seemed to grab onto this fog, and each run is more
pessimistic on visibilities than the prior run. Based on the latest
visibility and HRRR trends, plan to issue a Dense Fog Advisory for
this area. The cirrus shield overhead is substantial enough to make
it difficult to see the areal extent of the fog, but obviously not
thick enough to help prevent its development. Expect the fog to burn
off after sunrise through both diurnal effects and increasing
southwesterly winds.
Aside from the early morning fog in the southeast, a quiet weather
day is expected across central and southeast Illinois. One more very
mild day (for late February) is anticipated, with most areas topping
out in the 60s. While these readings will be at least a few degrees
cooler than yesterday, it should feel nicer outside due to winds
being much lighter.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
After another unseasonably mild day today across central and
southeast IL with a few sites approaching record highs, temps will
be cooling during early and middle part of next week. 00Z models
push a cold front southward toward Peoria at 00Z/6 pm today, to I-70
by 06Z/midnight tonight and through southeast IL during overnight.
1009 mb surface low pressure over SW KS to drop into north
central OK by sunset today and then lift toward the southern tip
of IL by 12Z/6 am Sunday, and then into northeast KY at 18Z/noon
Sunday. Some increasing moisture and elevated instability into
southern counties tonight with chances of showers from I-72 south
and isolated thunderstorms in southeast IL along and south of a
Shelbyville to Terre Haute line. SPC day1 outlook even has
marginal risk (5%) of hail SW of Clay county tonight. Lows
tonight range from mid 30s northern counties to low to mid 40s in
southeast IL. Chance of rain showers in southeast IL Sunday
morning then dry across area and skies becoming partly sunny. NNW
winds brings cooler highs Sunday ranging from upper 40s ne CWA to
lower 50s SW CWA with mid 50s along and south of highway 50 in
southeast IL.
Canadian high pressure settles SE into the Great Lakes during
Sunday night and Monday along with upper level trof digging into
the area. This continues cooler temps with highs Monday in the low
to mid 40s except upper 40s in southeast IL with partly to mostly
cloudy skies. Highs Tue in the mid to upper 40s with dry
conditions to continue during day Tue.
Extended models are showing a stronger southern stream storm system
developing over the southern plains by Tue evening and deepening
surface low pressure ne into the central Appalachians/eastern Ohio
river valley Wed night. This to bring a chance of rain/snow over
southeast IL Tue night and eastern IL Wed and possibly lingering
near Wabash river valley Wed evening. GEM keeps qpf southeast of CWA
but GFS and ECMWF have trended further west with qpf fields and
blended between these later 2 model solutions. Temps cool further on
Wed/Thu with highs in upper 30s/lower 40s, with southeast IL mid 40s
on Wed. A deep upper level trof over the eastern U.S. late next week
brings below normal temps next Fri/Sat with highs in the mid 30s to
near 40F with lows in the upper teens to mid 20s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
VFR conditions to prevail through the period. Clouds expected to
start moving in this evening from the south, as an area of low
pressure rides along a frontal boundary just north of the Ohio
River. It currently appears any associated precipitation will be
south of the central Illinois TAF sites, with ceilings generally
around 10,000 feet. West/southwest winds today will trend more to
the north mid to late evening as the low moves past.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
250 PM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
NEAR RECORD HIGHS TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAILING THIS LOW WILL
STALL OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA TONIGHT AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MUCH COOLER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS OUR REGION.
A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS MAY
BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1051 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
1535Z UPDATE...HAPPY SATURDAY! VERY MINOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT
THIS TIME...OTHER THAN TO REMOVE THE AREAS OF FOG MAINLY ACROSS
THE RURAL SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. CENTRAL INDIANA
STILL ON TAP FOR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. ZFPIND
AND OTHER PRODUCTS ALREADY UPDATED AND OUT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.
SATELLITE INDICATED THAT WE WERE UNDER A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WITH LOTS OF HIGH THIN CLOUDS ACROSS OUR AREA. AREAS OF FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND EXTENDED EAST INTO THE
VINCENNES AREA. WILL MENTION AREAS OF EARLY MORNING FOG FAR
SOUTHWEST AND PATCHY FOG REMAINDER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
THROUGH MID MORNING.
ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE POSSIBLE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AS A
VERY WARM AIR MASS CONTINUES ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS INDICATE
850 MB TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS +11 DEGREES CELSIUS ACROSS OUR WEST
AND SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND HIGH TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY WERE
IN THE LOWER 70S TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS WERE TOO COOL YESTERDAY AND THIS MAY BE THE
RESULT AGAIN TODAY. BOTH THE RAP AND HRR SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NAM SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH
ACTUALLY VERIFIED BETTER YESTERDAY. WILL GO WITH A BLEND TODAY AND
GO A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MET AND MAV NUMBERS. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE FAR
NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THAT AREA MAY LIMIT
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE THERE. ANYWAYS WENT WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 60S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 70 SOUTH TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA TONIGHT AND AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SPREADING LIGHT RAIN
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY ENDING IT FROM
THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS DRY.
MODELS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR SOUTH TONIGHT WITH
CAPES OF 500 TO 800 J/KG. WILL ADD MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS TONIGHT. SPC ALSO HAS THIS AREA WITH A RISK OF GENERAL
THUNDER.
LEANED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE WARMER CONSALL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS.
THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. AFTER SUNDAY MORNING IT LOOKS LIKE COOLER...DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S FAR NORTH TONIGHT TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S NORTH TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH
AND WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S ALL AREAS MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
LARGE SCALE TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BRINGING
A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND SOME CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WESTWARD WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND AS SUCH
FAR MORE POPS WILL BE REQUIRED.
MAY SEE SOME SNOW AT TIMES AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL THERMALS SUPPORT
THIS CHANCE IN SEVERAL PERIODS.
BLENDED INITIALIZATION HANDLED THINGS RELATIVELY WELL AND FEW
CHANGES WERE REQUIRED.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 20/18Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1214 PM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
VFR LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING AT BMG...BEFORE A
DETERIORATION TO MVFR CONDITIONS. REST OF SITES APPEAR LIKELY TO
REMAIN VFR...ALTHOUGH MVFR CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT. WILL
INCLUDE A SCT025 DECK AT IND/HUF AS AN INDICATION OF THIS POTENTIAL.
LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WILL INCLUDE A PROB30
THUNDER MENTION AT BMG.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHWESTERLY AND A BIT GUSTY TODAY. GUSTS
WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY OVER TIME.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMF/JH
NEAR TERM...SMF/JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1214 PM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
NEAR RECORD HIGHS TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAILING THIS LOW WILL
STALL OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA TONIGHT AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MUCH COOLER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS OUR REGION.
A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS MAY
BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1051 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
1535Z UPDATE...HAPPY SATURDAY! VERY MINOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT
THIS TIME...OTHER THAN TO REMOVE THE AREAS OF FOG MAINLY ACROSS
THE RURAL SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. CENTRAL INDIANA
STILL ON TAP FOR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. ZFPIND
AND OTHER PRODUCTS ALREADY UPDATED AND OUT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.
SATELLITE INDICATED THAT WE WERE UNDER A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WITH LOTS OF HIGH THIN CLOUDS ACROSS OUR AREA. AREAS OF FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND EXTENDED EAST INTO THE
VINCENNES AREA. WILL MENTION AREAS OF EARLY MORNING FOG FAR
SOUTHWEST AND PATCHY FOG REMAINDER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
THROUGH MID MORNING.
ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE POSSIBLE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AS A
VERY WARM AIR MASS CONTINUES ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS INDICATE
850 MB TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS +11 DEGREES CELSIUS ACROSS OUR WEST
AND SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND HIGH TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY WERE
IN THE LOWER 70S TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS WERE TOO COOL YESTERDAY AND THIS MAY BE THE
RESULT AGAIN TODAY. BOTH THE RAP AND HRR SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NAM SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH
ACTUALLY VERIFIED BETTER YESTERDAY. WILL GO WITH A BLEND TODAY AND
GO A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MET AND MAV NUMBERS. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE FAR
NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THAT AREA MAY LIMIT
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE THERE. ANYWAYS WENT WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 60S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 70 SOUTH TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA TONIGHT AND AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SPREADING LIGHT RAIN
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY ENDING IT FROM
THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS DRY.
MODELS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR SOUTH TONIGHT WITH
CAPES OF 500 TO 800 J/KG. WILL ADD MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS TONIGHT. SPC ALSO HAS THIS AREA WITH A RISK OF GENERAL
THUNDER.
LEANED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE WARMER CONSALL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS.
THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. AFTER SUNDAY MORNING IT LOOKS LIKE COOLER...DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S FAR NORTH TONIGHT TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S NORTH TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH
AND WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S ALL AREAS MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
A ROBUST UPPER LOW MAKING IT/S WAY ACROSS THE U.S. WILL BE THE
WEATHER MAKER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE LONG TERM. THE
LATEST OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS ARE TRENDING WEST WITH THE SURFACE
LOW FROM THIS SYSTEM AND NOW BRING IT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND UP THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. THIS TRACK PRODUCES
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...ALBEIT MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCES...TO THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE LOW MAKES ITS WAY FROM
SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE INTO OHIO. GIVEN THE MORE WESTWARD TREND WILL
MAINTAIN SMALL POPS GIVEN BY THE INITIALIZATION AND IF TREND
CONTINUES MAY NEED TO INCREASE WITH LATER FORECASTS. FOR PTYPE
GENERALLY USED A RAIN/SNOW MIX DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY WHERE RAIN APPEARS MORE LIKELY BASED ON
FORECAST TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 20/18Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1214 PM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
VFR LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING AT BMG...BEFORE A
DETERIORATION TO MVFR CONDITIONS. REST OF SITES APPEAR LIKELY TO
REMAIN VFR...ALTHOUGH MVFR CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT. WILL
INCLUDE A SCT025 DECK AT IND/HUF AS AN INDICATION OF THIS POTENTIAL.
LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WILL INCLUDE A PROB30
THUNDER MENTION AT BMG.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHWESTERLY AND A BIT GUSTY TODAY. GUSTS
WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY OVER TIME.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMF/JH
NEAR TERM...SMF/JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...NIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1112 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
NEAR RECORD HIGHS TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAILING THIS LOW WILL
STALL OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA TONIGHT AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MUCH COOLER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS OUR REGION.
A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS MAY
BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1051 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
1535Z UPDATE...HAPPY SATURDAY! VERY MINOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT
THIS TIME...OTHER THAN TO REMOVE THE AREAS OF FOG MAINLY ACROSS
THE RURAL SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. CENTRAL INDIANA
STILL ON TAP FOR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. ZFPIND
AND OTHER PRODUCTS ALREADY UPDATED AND OUT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.
SATELLITE INDICATED THAT WE WERE UNDER A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WITH LOTS OF HIGH THIN CLOUDS ACROSS OUR AREA. AREAS OF FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND EXTENDED EAST INTO THE
VINCENNES AREA. WILL MENTION AREAS OF EARLY MORNING FOG FAR
SOUTHWEST AND PATCHY FOG REMAINDER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
THROUGH MID MORNING.
ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE POSSIBLE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AS A
VERY WARM AIR MASS CONTINUES ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS INDICATE
850 MB TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS +11 DEGREES CELSIUS ACROSS OUR WEST
AND SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND HIGH TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY WERE
IN THE LOWER 70S TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS WERE TOO COOL YESTERDAY AND THIS MAY BE THE
RESULT AGAIN TODAY. BOTH THE RAP AND HRR SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NAM SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH
ACTUALLY VERIFIED BETTER YESTERDAY. WILL GO WITH A BLEND TODAY AND
GO A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MET AND MAV NUMBERS. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE FAR
NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THAT AREA MAY LIMIT
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE THERE. ANYWAYS WENT WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 60S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 70 SOUTH TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA TONIGHT AND AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SPREADING LIGHT RAIN
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY ENDING IT FROM
THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS DRY.
MODELS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR SOUTH TONIGHT WITH
CAPES OF 500 TO 800 J/KG. WILL ADD MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS TONIGHT. SPC ALSO HAS THIS AREA WITH A RISK OF GENERAL
THUNDER.
LEANED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE WARMER CONSALL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS.
THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. AFTER SUNDAY MORNING IT LOOKS LIKE COOLER...DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S FAR NORTH TONIGHT TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S NORTH TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH
AND WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S ALL AREAS MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
A ROBUST UPPER LOW MAKING IT/S WAY ACROSS THE U.S. WILL BE THE
WEATHER MAKER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE LONG TERM. THE
LATEST OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS ARE TRENDING WEST WITH THE SURFACE
LOW FROM THIS SYSTEM AND NOW BRING IT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND UP THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. THIS TRACK PRODUCES
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...ALBEIT MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCES...TO THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE LOW MAKES ITS WAY FROM
SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE INTO OHIO. GIVEN THE MORE WESTWARD TREND WILL
MAINTAIN SMALL POPS GIVEN BY THE INITIALIZATION AND IF TREND
CONTINUES MAY NEED TO INCREASE WITH LATER FORECASTS. FOR PTYPE
GENERALLY USED A RAIN/SNOW MIX DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY WHERE RAIN APPEARS MORE LIKELY BASED ON
FORECAST TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 201200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 559 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
KHUF AND KBMG WILL HAVE SOME IFR AND LOWER FOG TO START OUT WITH
BUT SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AROUND 13-15Z. THE REST OF THE
DAY SHOULD BE VFR WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING.
TONIGHT MVFR CEILINGS AND RAIN WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST SO
EXPECT TO SEE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AT KBMG AND KHUF. MUCH LOWER
CONFIDENCE THAT RAIN WILL GET AS FAR NORTH AS KIND. COULD SEE A
FEW WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 20 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY TONIGHT AROUND 5-10 KTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMF/JH
NEAR TERM...SMF/JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
403 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 403 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
Record breaking warmth across the region this afternoon, with a
pretty tight moisture gradient roughly running E-W along interstate
70. South of this line temperatures are in the upper 60s to lower
70s, with dewpoints in the 50s. North of this boundary, temperatures
are warm, in the 60s to 70s, but dewpoints are in the 30s. So far as
of the writing of this discussion, KMCI reached 74 degrees, which
breaks the record of 70 degrees, set in 2011. Later today, along the
aforementioned boundary, there could be a few showers and
thunderstorms forming. The best chance for these showers will be
across southern and central Missouri, although there could be a few
isolated weak cells as far north as I-70. There will likely be no
surface based storms, as low level lapse rates are not very steep.
However, there will be steep enough lapse rates in the mid levels to
muster 500 to 1000 J/kg of MU Cape. 0 to 6 km shear indicates 30 to
40 kts of deep layer shear, which could combine with the elevated
instability to bring a strong storm or two. HRRR trends have
indicated a more southern and eastern slide in the area storms are
expected to form. Expect these storms to grow in coverage through
the evening and move off into eastern Missouri through the overnight
hours.
Thereafter, for the rest of the weekend and into next week, expect
dry conditions with cooler temperatures as a cooler air mass slides
into the area. Even with cooler temperatures, still anticipating
highs to be 10 to 15 degrees above normal late February highs
through the week. By mid week, there will likely be a strong winter
storm moving through the southern plains. Right now it looks like
this storm will glide south of here and go across Arkansas and
Tennessee. Should this storm slide a little north we could see it
impact portions of this forecast area, but even with some movement
north it will likely be too warm to get any snow out of it. For now
it appears there could be some light rain along its far northern
periphery mid week. Expect above normal temps and dry conditions to
persist through the late part of the week and into early next
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1006 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
No anticipated flight restrictions through the forecast period.
Scattered thunderstorms will likely form across central Missouri this
evening and overnight, but for now it looks like they will remain
well south of the terminals. Will continue to monitor trends and
update as necessary.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
331 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 327 PM CST Sat Feb 20 2016
Main concern in the near term is the potential for a few storms
which could produce large hail this evening. Water vapor imagery is
showing that a weak shortwave trough is moving currently eastward
across the central Plains. Latest objective analysis is showing mid
level lapse rates from the central Plains into the Middle
Mississippi Valley are quite steep with values of 7-8 C/km. This
has resulted in MUCAPES of 500-1000+ J/kg where surface dewpoints
have climbed in the mid and upper 50s this afternoon across southern
Missouri into southern Illinois. Do think that we will see scattered
thunderstorm development very late this afternoon and this evening
as low level moisture convergence increases ahead of the shortwave
trough. Latest runs from the SPC and experimental HRRR seem to back
this idea up by showing convective development along and south of I-
70 by 00Z over central MO that will spread eastward through the
evening. Given the very impressive bulk shear...a few supercells
capable of producing large hail will be possible through the evening
hours...particularly along and south of I-70. The showers and a few
thunderstorms will then move southeast and eventually into the far
southeast part of the CWA by morning.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 327 PM CST Sat Feb 20 2016
As mentioned above, any residual showers will be over just the
far southern parts of the CWA early on Sunday morning. A second
shortwave trough is expected to stay north of the area on Sunday
keeping us dry. Dry weather is expected to continue Monday and
Tuesday as the upper flow transitions from northwest to southwest
and a surface high moves across the area. Temperatures will be
close to seasonable normals.
The GFS and ECMWF are in reasonable agreement that a trough will
dive down through the western CONUS early next week and close off as
an upper low by late Tuesday in the southern Plains. Have increased
rain chances over the southern and eastern parts of the CWA on
Tuesday night and Wednesday as the low begins to lift off to the
northeast. Rest of the period looks to be dry according to the
ECMWF with temperatures at or just below normal.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1101 AM CST Sat Feb 20 2016
Specifics for KUIN: VFR through the period. A warm front is
lifting into the region, but it is not expected to reach KUIN
before sinking southward again. Winds turn northeasterly tonight
after a low pressure center moves away from the region.
Specifics for KCOU: VFR for the first 0-3 hours. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and into the
evening. Winds will become northeasterly tonight after a warm
front sinks southward, then become northerly to northwesterly
late in the pd.
Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: VFR for the first 0-3 hours.
Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop and move
northeastward towards the terminals during the late afternoon and
early evening hours. Winds turn northeasterly tonight after a warm
front sinks southward, then become northerly to northwesterly late
in the pd.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
947 AM MST SAT FEB 20 2016
.UPDATE...
MADE JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST BASED ON
OBSERVED TRENDS. A BAROCLINIC LEAF WAS OBSERVED MOVING QUICKLY E
THROUGH WY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING. A STRUNG OUT AREA
OF VORTICITY WAS MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC NW AND ID INTO MT AND
WY PER THE RAP AND WATER VAPOR. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
AND E PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL PUSH SE OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING A BACKDOOR FRONT TO DROP INTO NE MT.
PRECIPITATION FORECAST WAS CHALLENGING WITH THE HRRR NOT PICKING
UP WELL ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND OTHER MODELS SHOWING VARIOUS
QPF SOLUTIONS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION WITH NW
WINDS IN THE 20S AND 30S THROUGH THE MIXING COLUMN. DEWPOINTS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH 20S OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. THE
PRECIPITATION WAS DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRONT OF
THE SURFACE LOW THIS MORNING. THIS TREND LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY SO SPREAD OUT THE LOW POPS E OF KBIL OVER MUCH OF SE MT.
ALSO ADDED POPS TO KLVM WITH MODELS GENERATING PRECIPITATION THERE
WITH THE APPROACHING VORTICITY.
INCREASED WINDS FROM KBIL W THIS MORNING TO BETTER MATCH RECENT
TRENDS. EXPECTING A WINDY DAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN GOOD SHAPE. ARTHUR
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
NORTHWEST MONTANA WITH A DOWNSLOPISH WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN MONTANA AND WYOMING. A JET STREAK ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE SHORTWAVE IS TAPPED INTO SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND IR
IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER OVER IDAHO WITH RADAR
SHOWING SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
COMBINATION OF HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE TRAILING THE SHORTWAVE OVER
IDAHO AND FALLING PRESSURES OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA HAS
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENTS WITH GAP WINDS AT LIVINGSTON GUSTING
TO 45 MPH. PROGS INDICATE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE REACHED THEIR
MAX SO DO NOT EXPECT GUSTS TO REALLY GO MUCH HIGHER THAN 50 MPH.
AGAIN ANOTHER MILD NIGHT ACROSS THER REGION SETS THE STAGE FOR
GOOD MIXING AND AS THE HIGHER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET STREAK
SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS BUT WINDS ALOFT
ARE NOT AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS. MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL BE REACHED EARLY TODAY AND GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE 50S
BEFORE STRONG MID LEVEL COOLING ARRIVES. DOWNSLOPE WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION TODAY TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FALLON COUNTY WHERE A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS SURFACE TROUGH GETS A STRONGER PUSH TONIGHT BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE AND ALLOWS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHEAST MONTANA BUT IT DOES WASH OUT AS IT REACHES BILLINGS AS
DEVELOPING LEESIDE TROUGHING WASHES OUT THE COLD AIR PUSH.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR BILLINGS HAS SEEN IN
THE PAST 2 WEEKS AND COULD FALL BELOW 30.
COOLER START BUT SUNNIER SKIES AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING A DRY
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING WELL INTO THE 40S. WILL BE
SOME OF THE LIGHTER WINDS WE HAVE SEEN IN RECENT DAYS SO DESPITE
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE PLEASANT FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
A PUSH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ALONG A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT COULD BRING A BIT MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT NOT MUCH
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED. BORSUM
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...
RELATIVELY FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THIS
MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE REGION. OVERALL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE REGION
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN IN RECENT DAYS...BUT STILL AT
OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
TWO DISTURBANCES WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY MON INTO
MON NIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
MORNING...BUT SHOULD TURN TO MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS AS DAYTIME
HEATING WARMS THE LOWER LEVELS. FORCING STILL APPEARS FAIRLY
WEAK...BUT LAPSE RATES DO APPEAR TO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING ONLY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY...AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.
A FEW WEAK WAVES ARE PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD...BUT RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS...WEAK FORCING...AND
PREVAILING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD INHIBIT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE WIND SPEEDS DO APPEAR TO REMAIN MUCH LOWER THAN
THOSE SEEN IN RECENT DAYS. RMS/BORSUM
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN WESTERN MOUNTAINS TODAY...WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SPREADING INTO LIVINGSTON AREA...AND
NEARBY FOOTHILLS. SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX NORTH OF A LINE FROM ROUNDUP TO
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF MONTANA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINAL SITES...WITH LOCALIZED MVFR POSSIBLE
IN SHOWERS. IT WILL BE A LESS WINDY DAY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
GILSTAD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 052 028/050 032/050 029/043 028/048 027/049 031/054
1/N 10/U 03/W 21/B 01/U 11/B 11/B
LVM 045 025/046 031/045 025/040 024/046 027/050 029/051
2/W 10/B 23/W 31/B 10/N 11/B 11/B
HDN 054 026/052 029/052 027/045 025/049 024/048 027/053
1/N 10/U 13/W 21/B 01/U 11/B 11/B
MLS 051 029/048 028/050 027/044 026/046 023/044 026/049
2/W 11/B 02/W 10/N 11/N 11/B 11/B
4BQ 053 027/048 027/050 026/042 023/047 022/045 025/050
2/W 11/B 12/W 11/B 01/U 11/B 11/B
BHK 047 025/042 025/047 023/037 022/042 020/039 021/044
3/W 21/B 12/W 11/N 11/B 11/B 11/N
SHR 050 023/047 026/048 025/039 020/046 021/046 024/050
0/N 10/U 13/W 31/B 11/U 11/B 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
356 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT. DECENT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT LOWER AND
MIDDLE PARTS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE DRY. THIS MORNINGS UPPER
AIR SOUNDING AT NORTH PLATTE HAD A PWAT OF 0.21 INCHES. MODELS DO
MOISTEN THE MID AND LOWER ATMOSPHERE SOME THIS EVENING...AND WITH
THE DECENT LIFT...HAVE EXPANDED THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. AREA
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS
RAIN. RAP AND HRRR MODELS ARE HINTING THAT A MORE CONCENTRATED
NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN WITHIN THIS BAND AT
ONEILL THE SOUNDING IS ABOVE FREEZING UP THROUGH 850MB...SO
EXPECTING MOSTLY RAIN.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR TOWARD DAWN AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES BY SUNRISE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
SUNDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. EXPECT ANOTHER MILD DAY
WITH A PACIFIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM MID 40S
ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER...TO LOWER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
MID RANGE...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A WARMUP IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
MONDAY AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE AND APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM WYOMING THROUGH COLORADO INTO KANSAS. STILL KEPT
NEAR PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR SLIGHT CHC POPS ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST...SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF FA MONDAY NIGHT AND
THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY. PRECIP TYPE RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY
EVENING TO PSBL SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...BACK TO RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS PSBL TUESDAY.
LONG RANGE...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH THURSDAY HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WRN NEBRASKA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE WARMER AIR FROM
THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION. A SLIGHT PUSH OF THE COLDER AIR
COULD CAUSE AN ADJUSTMENT TO COLDER HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FORECAST HIGHS ARE THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE ECMWF SHOWS WARMER AIR
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...DUE TO AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDING EAST FROM THE NRN AND
CNTRL ROCKIES. BRIEF WARMUPS BETWEEN PASSING COLD FRONTS WILL LEAD
TO HIGHS RANGING ANYWHERE FROM THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING A DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS...ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
A FEW SPRINKLES. THIS WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS AND GUSTS TO 25 KTS DEVELOPING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...TAYLOR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1245 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1004 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
VERY LIGHT SNOW AREA EXITING THE ERN FCST AREA ATTM. OTHERWISE
HAVE SOME COLD ADVECTION TODAY WITH TEMPS FALLING SOME IN THE
NORTH. EXPECT A FEW MORE DEGREE RISE IN THE SOUTH BUT OVERALL
STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS IN THE NORTH. STRATOCU AROUND BUT SOME
HOLES AS WELL. OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM WILL BE
CHANCES OF SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OVERALL
THE NAM/GFS/GEM ARE OVERDOING QPFS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER
WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. CURRENT
RADAR DEPICTING A REGION OF WEAKENING RASN OVER THE CENTRAL VALLEY
AND MORE WEAK ECHOES OVER SW MANITOBA. THIS LATTER AREA IS PROGGED
BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER NE ND...WHILE THE
LATEST RAP BRINGS A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF TWO TO THREE
HUNDREDTHS OF QPFS INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND NW MN BY
12Z...WEAKENING MORE AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE REGION
BY 17Z. THE RAP SOLUTION BEST REPRESENTS CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND
WILL USE IT FOR POP/QPF GUIDANCE.
A SFC RIDGE THEN EXTENDS INTO THE VALLEY FROM A CANADIAN HIGH FOR
THE MIDDLE PORTION OF SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY BUT CLOUDY
WEATHER AS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION ON LATEST RAP H925-H850 LAYER RH THAT THE NORTHERN
VALLEY COULD SEE CLEARING BY MID MORNING AND FILL BACK IN LATER
IN THE DAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR BUT KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY IN SKY
GRID FOR NOW.
A WEAK CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
THE UPPER WAVE OVER SE ALBERTA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL
ND BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NAM BRINGS ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOW INTO FAR
WRN ZONES BY 03Z-09Z TIMEFRAME...WITH GFS A BIT SOONER AND WITH
HIGHER QPFS. MODELS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH A BAND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY IN THE 09Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME. USING A FCST
BLEND...AROUND ONE HALF INCH IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWESTERN ZONES
(SOUTHEASTERN ND AND THE SOUTHERN VALLEY). CANADIAN SFC HIGH THEN
MOVES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE SOUTH IS POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE
NORTH BY SUN AFTN...WITH MUCH COLDER DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM...WITH A MINOR VORT
MAX MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY ON MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE...SO NOT MUCH OVER A DUSTING IS EXPECTED.
FOR TUE THROUGH FRI...OVERALL NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES...BUT SHORTWAVES VERY HARD TO TIME SO WILL STICK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE. THE GFS BRINGS DOWN AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT NEXT
FRI WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH WARMER AND DELAYED WITH THIS FRONT...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS POTENTIAL LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
MVFR CIGS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS A WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW HRS OF VFR AT KDVL WITH AN AREA OF UPSTREAM
CLEARING...FOLLOWED BY MORE OVERCAST. KEPT SOME OVERNIGHT -SN FOR
KDVL/KFAR AS WEAK SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
TO CONTINUE WITH CURRENT TIGHTER GRADIENT NEAR KBJI EASING BY LATE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...WJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1004 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
VERY LIGHT SNOW AREA EXITING THE ERN FCST AREA ATTM. OTHERWISE
HAVE SOME COLD ADVECTION TODAY WITH TEMPS FALLING SOME IN THE
NORTH. EXPECT A FEW MORE DEGREE RISE IN THE SOUTH BUT OVERALL
STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS IN THE NORTH. STRATOCU AROUND BUT SOME
HOLES AS WELL. OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM WILL BE
CHANCES OF SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OVERALL
THE NAM/GFS/GEM ARE OVERDOING QPFS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER
WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. CURRENT
RADAR DEPICTING A REGION OF WEAKENING RASN OVER THE CENTRAL VALLEY
AND MORE WEAK ECHOES OVER SW MANITOBA. THIS LATTER AREA IS PROGGED
BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER NE ND...WHILE THE
LATEST RAP BRINGS A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF TWO TO THREE
HUNDREDTHS OF QPFS INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND NW MN BY
12Z...WEAKENING MORE AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE REGION
BY 17Z. THE RAP SOLUTION BEST REPRESENTS CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND
WILL USE IT FOR POP/QPF GUIDANCE.
A SFC RIDGE THEN EXTENDS INTO THE VALLEY FROM A CANADIAN HIGH FOR
THE MIDDLE PORTION OF SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY BUT CLOUDY
WEATHER AS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION ON LATEST RAP H925-H850 LAYER RH THAT THE NORTHERN
VALLEY COULD SEE CLEARING BY MID MORNING AND FILL BACK IN LATER
IN THE DAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR BUT KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY IN SKY
GRID FOR NOW.
A WEAK CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
THE UPPER WAVE OVER SE ALBERTA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL
ND BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NAM BRINGS ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOW INTO FAR
WRN ZONES BY 03Z-09Z TIMEFRAME...WITH GFS A BIT SOONER AND WITH
HIGHER QPFS. MODELS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH A BAND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY IN THE 09Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME. USING A FCST
BLEND...AROUND ONE HALF INCH IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWESTERN ZONES
(SOUTHEASTERN ND AND THE SOUTHERN VALLEY). CANADIAN SFC HIGH THEN
MOVES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE SOUTH IS POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE
NORTH BY SUN AFTN...WITH MUCH COLDER DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM...WITH A MINOR VORT
MAX MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY ON MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE...SO NOT MUCH OVER A DUSTING IS EXPECTED.
FOR TUE THROUGH FRI...OVERALL NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES...BUT SHORTWAVES VERY HARD TO TIME SO WILL STICK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE. THE GFS BRINGS DOWN AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT NEXT
FRI WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH WARMER AND DELAYED WITH THIS FRONT...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS POTENTIAL LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
MAINLY MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TODAY. LIGHT SNOW IN THE GFK..TVF AND
BJI THIS MORNING WILL END BY 18Z. MORE LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL
TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF A DVL-FAR LINE. CIGS MAY FALL
TO IFR CONDS LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
329 PM EST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES
RATHER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FURTHER TO THE
WEST...A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THIS WILL BE THE FEATURE TO BRING IN THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO WESTERN TEXAS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 20 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. PW VALUES ACROSS THE REGION ARE INTO THE 1.0-1.2 INCH
RANGE BUT THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP SO FAR. RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...HAVE ONLY SEEN PRECIP BEING OBSERVED AT RHP. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING DUE TO THE
SATURATED ATMOSPHERE. ANY WEAK LIFT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS.
THE LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING TO THE SOUTHEAST. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM MULTIPLE DAYS OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND
COLDER AIR COMING IN ALOFT...EXPECT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PRECIPITATION...MAINLY LATE IN THE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. KEPT POPS IN THE 70-90 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE
AREA TOMORROW. PRECIP. CHANCES WILL DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLATEAU. EXPECT CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD A COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING INTO
THE AREA...WITH RELATIVELY PLENTIFUL MOISTURE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL CARRY ISOLATED THUNDER UP TO MIDNIGHT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT NOT ALL THE WAY INTO SW VA. AFTER THE
FRONT THERE WILL BE A LITTLE DRYING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS...BUT THEN MOISTURE COMES STREAMING BACK INTO THE AREA
ALREADY BY MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN UNTIL
THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY KICKS THROUGH TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ON WEDNESDAY A LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA...QUICKLY DRAWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE AREA. INCLUDING ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF OUR
AREA WED...AND COULD HAVE A MOUNTAIN WAVE WIND EVENT AS WELL...BUT
STRONGEST WINDS MAY STAY SOUTH OUR TALLER MOUNTAINS THE WAY THE
MODELS LOOK NOW. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL BE PUSHING
INTO THE AREA...WITH PRECIP TURNING TO SNOW...BUT PROBABLY PRETTY
LIGHT PRECIP OVERALL. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THIS DEVELOPS. EURO
NOW CUTS OFF AN UPPER LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM AND INTENSIFIES THE
SURFACE LOW. WILL GET A BETTER READ ON THIS AS IT GETS CLOSER AND
MORE MODELS GET WITHIN RANGE OF THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 54 66 48 61 / 30 80 50 30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 51 63 47 57 / 30 80 60 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 54 63 46 58 / 40 90 50 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 49 60 42 53 / 30 80 60 10
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
MA/GM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
216 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
.DISCUSSION...
MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S UNDER
CLOUDY SKIES...BUT AREAS NW OF NASHVILLE WERE IN THE LOWER 70S
WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT ANY RAIN WOULD
BE BRIEF.
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPING OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL MOVE UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO MID
TN SUNDAY EVENING. THESE FEATURES WILL HELP PROVIDE A HIGH
PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...STARTING LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHWEST...AND SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. OVERALL THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE
NORTH HALF...AND MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING. WITH MILD AIR IN
PLACE...AND SOME BREAKS IN THE SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPS
WILL AGAIN REACH WELL INTO THE 60S. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES SUNDAY
EVENING...SHOWERS WILL END AND COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE...DROPPING
TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.
MONDAY LOOKS DRY AND SEASONABLE...THEN WET WX WILL COME BACK FOR
TUESDAY AS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER TX MOVES OUR WAY.
THIS LOW WILL TRACK DIRECTLY OVER TN ON WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE UPPER OHOVALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AND COLDER AIR DROPS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST...THE RAIN MAY TRANSITION OVER TO SOME BRIEF
LIGHT SNOW. AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.
LATE WEEK WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER AIR...WITH TEMPS
RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
RADAR AND LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS DEPICT A FEW SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES SOUTH OF AIRPORTS TODAY...BUT ANY IMPACTING THE AIRPORTS
DIRECTLY APPEARS MINIMAL AND WILL REMOVE VCSH MENTION.
OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD INTO CKV THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS CONTINUING AT BNA/CSV. -SHRA WILL DEVELOP
AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH IFR CIGS/MVFR VIS AT ALL
TERMINALS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-11 KTS WITH AN OCCASIONAL
GUST TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 58 67 43 55 39 / 60 90 10 10 20
CLARKSVILLE 57 65 39 53 37 / 70 90 0 0 10
CROSSVILLE 53 61 42 53 40 / 40 90 30 10 30
COLUMBIA 57 65 44 55 40 / 50 70 20 10 30
LAWRENCEBURG 56 65 44 56 41 / 50 70 30 10 30
WAVERLY 57 67 41 54 38 / 70 70 10 10 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........55/SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM..................13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
148 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM A WEAK BOUNDARY WAS OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING. WE WILL KEEP 20 POPS FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
TODAY...BUT WITH LITTLE FORCING...ANY SHOWERS WILL BE VERY LIGHT
AND BRIEF. MID MORNING SKIES WERE CLOUDY WITH A FEW THIN
SPOTS...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST WHERE SKIES WERE PARTLY
SUNNY. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
BUMPED UP TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
AREA. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 60S PLATEAU...TO LOWER 70S
NORTHWEST...AND MAINLY UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
RADAR AND LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS DEPICT A FEW SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES SOUTH OF AIRPORTS TODAY...BUT ANY IMPACTING THE AIRPORTS
DIRECTLY APPEARS MINIMAL AND WILL REMOVE VCSH MENTION.
OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD INTO CKV THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS CONTINUING AT BNA/CSV. -SHRA WILL DEVELOP
AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH IFR CIGS/MVFR VIS AT ALL
TERMINALS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-11 KTS WITH AN OCCASIONAL
GUST TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........55/SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM..................13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
319 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON CLOUD TRENDS TONIGHT AND LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW CHANCES SUNDAY.
SURFACE WINDS SWITCH TO NORTHERLY THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN/LAKE SUPERIOR. THE CLOUD FORECAST IS A
LITTLE CHALLENGING TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF BREAKS NOTED IN THE
STRATOCUMULUS LAYER THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BECOME CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHES
INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE BULK OF THE
FORCING LOOKS TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT/S
INTERESTING TO NOTE...THAT AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT
SNOW POSSIBLE ALONG IT. THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN ARE
ALL SHOWING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN
WISCONSIN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE LINGERED
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOR ACCUMULATION BUT WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM JUST
ENOUGH ON SUNDAY FOR SUNDAY THAT ANY LIGHT SNOW COULD MIX WITH RAIN
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...IF WE CAN
GENERATE ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM ARE ON RAIN/SNOW CHANCES
TUESDAY...FOCUS THEN TURNS TO TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH ALOFT. WE SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
DIVES INTO THE SOUTHERN CONUS ON TUESDAY AND SPINS UP A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CLOSER
TO HOME...THE FRONT WILL EDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY
ON TUESDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN DEVELOPING. ANOTHER TROUGH
DROPS SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. THIS TROUGH THEN HELPS TO CARVE OUT A BROAD TROUGH
CROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN FROM CANADA.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL BELOW TO BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE WEEK
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
THE MVFR CLOUD DECK OVER MINNESOTA CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHEAST AND
HAS JUST RECENTLY MOVED OVER KRST. THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD MOVE OVER KLSE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IS SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN THIS DECK OVER WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA...BUT LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ONCE SUNSET COMES
WHETHER THIS WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF OR FILL BACK IN. THE 20.12Z NAM
AND 20.15Z RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH WAS THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. WILL MAINTAIN THIS TREND AND KEEP THE CEILINGS
MVFR...ALTHOUGH CONCERNED THERE COULD BE SOME PERIODS OF IFR AT
KRST. AS THE WINDS DROP OFF TO THE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
TONIGHT...ALSO CONCERNED THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT
KRST WITH SOME FOG WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
RECENT SNOW MELT IN PLACE. WILL NOT INCLUDE THIS FOR NOW AND LET
LATER SHIFTS SEE IF THIS TREND DEVELOPS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
RISES CONTINUE ON AREA RIVERS DUE TO RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOW. AN
ICE JAM HAS FORMED ON THE GRANT RIVER AT BURTON. MINOR FLOODING OF
LOW-LYING AGRICULTURAL LAND WAS REPORTED BY LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GRANT RIVER WITH AREAS
MAINLY AROUND BURTON BEING IMPACTED. RIVER LEVELS ARE STARTING TO
FALL AT BURTON...BUT ADDITIONAL ICE JAMMING IS POSSIBLE.
ALSO...THE TREMPEALEAU RIVER AT DODGE IS ON THE RISE...BUT
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIMES. CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVER
LEVELS CLOSELY AS THE SNOW MELT CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ADDITIONAL ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1115 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE CONCERN TODAY AND
TONIGHT. 20.09Z ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT
FROM NEAR ALBERT LEA TO JUST WEST OF EAU CLAIRE. LOW-LEVEL COLD
AIR ADVECTION REGIME BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE REINFORCED BY A
WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. RAP 0.5 KM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OUTPUT SUGGESTS
A MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS
FROM THE NORTH SO THAT MOST AREAS ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS IDEA IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE NSSL WRF SYNTHETIC
SATELLITE IMAGERY. INCREASING CLOUDS AND DECREASING 925 HPA
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
CHECK...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WI TO
THE MID-UPPER 40S ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST WI.
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...SNOW MELT WILL CONTINUE
ALLOWING AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RISE. A SUSPECTED ICE JAM IS
LIKELY OCCURRING ALONG THE GRANT RIVER NEAR BURTON EARLY THIS
MORNING. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. ADDITIONAL
ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE AS RIVER ICE BREAKS UP AND MOVES DOWNSTREAM.
TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT DRY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S AND A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
A STRONGER SHORT-WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY SWEEP
ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIP. THE STRONGEST 500 TO 300 HPA POSITIVE
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY 18Z. AS A
RESULT...THE BEST LIFT MOVES THROUGH BEFORE LOW-LEVEL SATURATION
CAN OCCUR...LIMITING PRECIP POTENTIAL. WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT
BELOW FREEZING...PRECIP TYPE WILL DEPEND ON NEAR SURFACE
VALUES. THUS...A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE BUT LIQUID AMOUNTS
WILL BE MINIMAL...GENERALLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OR LESS. IF SNOW DOES
DEVELOP FOR COLDER AREAS...LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
AFTER A DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE REGION...THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
ON TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS WAVE IS MORE IMPRESSIVE
COMPARED TO SUNDAY/S SYSTEM. SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BISECT THE
FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY 18Z...BUT MODEST WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. ONCE AGAIN...PRECIP TYPE WILL DEPEND
ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS STRUGGLE WITH TIMING/STRENGTH OF
ADDITIONAL SHORT-WAVES AS BROADER SYNOPTIC PATTERN TRANSITIONS
TO A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES
THURSDAY...BUT OTHERWISE A DRY FORECAST TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. OVERALL...A COOLER PERIOD WITH DAILY HIGHS AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
THE MVFR CLOUD DECK OVER MINNESOTA CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHEAST AND
HAS JUST RECENTLY MOVED OVER KRST. THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD MOVE OVER KLSE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IS SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN THIS DECK OVER WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA...BUT LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ONCE SUNSET COMES
WHETHER THIS WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF OR FILL BACK IN. THE 20.12Z NAM
AND 20.15Z RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH WAS THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. WILL MAINTAIN THIS TREND AND KEEP THE CEILINGS
MVFR...ALTHOUGH CONCERNED THERE COULD BE SOME PERIODS OF IFR AT
KRST. AS THE WINDS DROP OFF TO THE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
TONIGHT...ALSO CONCERNED THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT
KRST WITH SOME FOG WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
RECENT SNOW MELT IN PLACE. WILL NOT INCLUDE THIS FOR NOW AND LET
LATER SHIFTS SEE IF THIS TREND DEVELOPS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016
THE GRANT RIVER NEAR BURTON IN GRANT COUNTY WISCONSIN HAS RISEN
APPROXIMATELY 13 FT SINCE FRIDAY AT 18Z AND IS NOW ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE OF 18 FT. THIS IS MORE INDICATIVE OF AN ICE JAM THAN SNOW
MELT RUNOFF WHEN COMPARED TO OTHER NEARBY RIVER GAUGES. LAW
ENFORCEMENT REPORTED SLOW WATER MOVEMENT AT THE COUNTY ROAD N
OVERPASS...BUT VISIBILITY WAS LIMITED DUE TO NIGHTFALL. IT IS
ASSUMED AN ICE JAM DOWNSTREAM IS CAUSING THESE WATER RISES. A
FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED IN THE VICINITY OF BURTON AND WILL
BE REASSESSED AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION. OTHERWISE...ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW
FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT RUNOFF TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE RIVER
SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL RISES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
OTHER ICE JAMS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM....ROGERS
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY....ROGERS