Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 02/19/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
847 AM PST WED FEB 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN TO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:47 AM PST WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THE WEATHER
FOCUS WILL BE IN THE NEAR TERM WITH THREE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS...RAIN...WIND AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LATEST KMUX RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ECHOES MOVING FROM
THE SW TO NE WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. DESPITE THE RADAR
RETURNS...PRECIP ACTUALLY HITTING THE GROUND IS NOT WIDESPREAD
YET. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN...BUT THE BULK OF
THE RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
STILL OFF THE COAST. AS FOR WINDS...A WIND ADVISORY STILL REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH THE EVENING. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW GUSTS IN
THE 30-40 MPH...BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LASTLY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA AND AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE BEHIND THE FRONT
AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN. MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL HELP TO
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND PROMOTE INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. ADDITIONALLY...CAPE AND NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES
INCREASE POST FRONTAL FROM MONTEREY BAY NORTHWARD. FOR WHAT IT/S
WORTH...THE LATEST SPC TSTORMS OUTLOOK HAS MUCH OF THE BAY AREA
INCLUDED FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS.
NO UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
PRECIP AND POSS TSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES OFF THE OREGON COAST IS PROGRESSING
EASTWARD. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND A WIND ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 1000 FEET FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM.
COULD SEE WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH. A FEW ECHOES ARE APPEARING ON
THE RADAR BUT THESE ARE VERY HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BEGIN UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
NORTH BAY. RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE SFO BAY AREA LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THE MRY BAY AREA TONIGHT. RAIN WILL TURN TO SHOWERS
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE COAST. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY BUT WILL STILL BE NEAR NORMAL. A LITTLE MORE COOLING IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH BRINGS IN SOME COOLER AIR.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD BE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH EXCEPT
1/2 TO 1 INCH IN THE COASTAL HILLS. THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES WILL GET LESS DUE TO DOWNSLOPE
WIND EFFECTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE WEATHER SYSTEM FOLLOWING THIS FIRST SYSTEM WILL TRACK FARTHER
NORTH WITH THE TAIL END BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FROM THE
SFO BAY AREA NORTH ON FRIDAY. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE DISTRICT
WILL REMAIN DRY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE STATE
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER
THE GREAT BASIN BRINGING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER. THE ECMWF
FORECASTS A STRONG RIDGE WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS OF 582 DECAMETERS
OVER SFO. IF THIS VERIFIES THERE COULD BE NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN BY MONDAY. THE GFS IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THE
RIDGE AND THEREFORE IS NOT AS WARM.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 2:30 AM PST WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL REACH
THE AREA THIS EVENING. S-SE WINDS ARE MAINLY LIGHT AT THIS EARLY
HOUR BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY. A FEW
SHOWERS ARRIVING LATER TODAY THEN MORE SHOWERS AS WELL AS ISOLATED
TSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
VICINITY OF KSFO....S-SE WINDS INCREASING TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. VFR TODAY. MVFR CIGS BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...INCREASING S-SE WINDS TODAY. VFR
TODAY. MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 2:15 AM PST WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING GUSTY WINDS...RAIN AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...A NORTHWEST SWELL WILL INCREASE LATER
THURSDAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...WIND ADVISORY...MOUNTAINS ABOVE 1000 FEET.
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...MRY BAY FROM 9 AM
SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 11 AM
GLW...SF BAY FROM 11 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: CANEPA
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
840 AM PST WED FEB 17 2016
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Wind, rain, and snow today and tonight. Heaviest rain and snow is
expected overnight. Also a chance of thunderstorms overnight.
Another weaker system Friday.
&&
.Discussion...
Things still on track for a moderate storm system to push through
the area today and tonight. Few tweaks to forecast this morning.
Some wind damage reported in foothills of Nevada county in the
Neveda City and Grass Valley areas. We expanded the wind advisory
to include this area. Would expect these stronger winds to
continue into the evening. Previous wind advisory still looks good
in the valley and haven`t changed that. Other tweak to forecast
was to introduce thunderstorms in the evening times to most of the
valley. NAM and HRRR both forecasting fair instability pushing
into the area behind the front to support this chance. As far as
rain snow totals and snow levels...didn`t change things too much
except to increase values a bit. Rasch
.Previous Discussion...
Light warm sector precipitation now showing up on radar just off
the coast ahead of a cold front now approaching 130 west. High
pressure ridge that has brought record breaking temperatures for
the last several days has now shifted over the Great Basin. Light
precipitation is expected to spread over the north state today
with fairly high snow levels. A fairly tight surface gradient
develops ahead of the offshore front today with good upper level
support so increasing wind is likely. Main frontal band moves
through the north state during the night bringing the heaviest
precipitation. By 12z Thursday morning snow levels take a
significant drop as cold air behind the front moves inland.
Surface pressure gradient remains fairly strong through Thursday
but upper support shifts to westerly by morning so winds should
drop off a bit. A small scale shortwave trough moves across
central California Thursday morning behind the main front and
believe this to be the time for the best threat of an isolated
thunderstorm over the southern Sacramento valley and foothills.
Cloud cover and less subsidence will bring significantly cooler
temperatures today with cold airmass bringing still more cooling
on Thursday. Precipitation drops off significantly by Thursday
evening as slight upper ridging slides over region with decreasing
surface gradient bringing decreasing winds. Light precipitation
will still be possible as light showers spill over the flat ridge.
A much weaker system moves across the west coast on Friday but
this system may be lifted northward enough that the southern
portions of the CWA may not evening get any precipitation. Cool
air still in place for only a slight warm up Friday. West coast
ridge amplifies on Saturday from dry conditions and warmer
temperatures with any precipitation threat lifting north of the
forecast area by Saturday night.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)
Ridge reamplifies Sunday/Monday over the west coast with more
warm temps occurring with up to 2 yr return interval, especially
over northern San Joaquin Valley and adjacent foothills.
Another frontal system impacts the region late Tuesday
into Wednesday. The 17/00Z GFS and ECMWF both have negative tilt
trough axises nearing the coast by next Tuesday afternoon. The
ECMWF appears to be wetter as the trough is deeper and more
amplified as it makes landfall. Model confidence is still
struggling with dynamics, as yesterday indicated that the GFS
would have better dynamics. Either way, both models are moving
northeast and filling, so the system is not very impressive.
JClapp
&&
.AVIATION...
Gradually lowing ceilings today as frontal system approaches.
Precip will begin later this afternoon and continue overnight.
Southerly winds expected to strengthen today and into this
evening with gusts possibly exceeding 35 kts. Light precipitation
will begin in the late morning while heavier showers and MVFR/IFR
conditions are not expected until late afternoon into evening.
JClapp
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Storm Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST
Thursday for West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas
County/Lassen Park.
Wind Advisory from noon today to midnight PST tonight for
Carquinez Strait and Delta-Central Sacramento Valley-Motherlode-
Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley-Northern Sacramento Valley-
Northern San Joaquin Valley-Southern Sacramento Valley.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
320 PM EST WED FEB 17 2016
.DISCUSSION...
...BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
...POTENTIALLY STORMY NEXT TUESDAY AND QUITE WINDY WEDNESDAY...
TONIGHT/THU...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL TRACK
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY
TIGHTENING. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH BECOME BREEZY INTO
TOMORROW AS THEY VEER TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN
DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID-UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST FROM THE
CAPE NORTHWARD TO LOW 70S FARTHER SOUTH AND INLAND. NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...KEEPING SKIES CLEAR
TO MOSTLY CLEAR.
FRI-MON (PREV)...SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
KEEP ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NE IN THE MORNING AND ENE
IN THE AFTERNOON. 590 DM HIGH CENTER AT H5 ACROSS THE GULF WILL KEEP
A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WITH MEAGER LOW LVL MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
ATLC. GFS INDICATES SOME VERY LIGHT QPF OVER THE ATLC WITH ECMWF AND
NAM MAINLY DRY. WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST WITH HIGHS MODERATED
BY THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 60S
VOLUSIA COAST AND LOWER 70S SRN CSTL AND INTERIOR SECTIONS.
A NICE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP WEATHER-WISE WITH THE SFC RIDGE
SHIFTING FROM THE FL-GA BORDER SATURDAY TO THE NRN FL PENINSULA ON
SUNDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY AS PWATS AVERAGE AROUND .75
INCHES AND ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS AS RIDGE AXIS BUILDS CLOSER. HIGHS
LOWER 70S COAST TO MID 70S INTERIOR SATURDAY AND THEN WARMING
ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO SUNDAY WITH MID-UPPER 70S OVER THE INTERIOR.
MINS WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE 50S...EXCEPT AROUND 60 FOR THE MARTIN
COUNTY COAST.
SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY WITH RETURN LOW LVL SE FLOW
STARTING TO GRADUALLY INCREASE LOW LVL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SRN
PENINSULA. WILL CONTINUE A LOW SHOWER CHANCE FOR THE TREASURE COAST.
HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S.
TUE-WED...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS IN
THEIR HANDLING OF THE AMPLITUDE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM
OK/TX TO THE GULF COAST/NRN GOMEX AND THEN THROUGH THE SE/ERN CONUS
AS WELL AS THE RESULTANT SFC LOW FORMATION. THE NEW 12Z ECM REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE/FASTER THAN THE GFS AND HAS TRENDED FARTHER NORTH AT H50
AND WEAKER WITH ITS SURFACE LOW WHILE THE GFS WAS A LITTLE STRONGER
AT BOTH THE SFC/H50 COMPARED TO ITS LAST COUPLE RUNS. BOTH STILL
POINT TO AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/RAIN BREAKING OUT TUE IN
WARM FRONTOGENETIC TYPE FORCING...FOLLOWED BY A RAPIDLY ADVANCING
SQLN WITH SHOWERS/STRONG STORMS SOMETIME DURING THE TUE NIGHT/EARLY
WED MORNING TIME FRAME.
STILL TOO EARLY TO GET ANY MORE SPECIFIC THAN THAT THIS FAR IN
ADVANCE...GIVEN THE TYPICAL MODEL CONTINUITY AND CONSENSUS ISSUES
THAT FALL IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. WED LOOKS TO BE QUITE WINDY AS SFC
LOW BOMBS ALONG/OFFSHORE THE EASTERN SEABOARD RESULTING IN A VERY
TIGHT LOCAL PGRAD.
HIGHEST RAIN CHCS (50) STILL FOCUSED ON THE TUE-TUE NIGHT TIME
FRAME. WENT WITH A 30 FOR EARLY WED GIVEN THE TIMING ISSUES AND
PROXIMITY OF THE MID LVL TROUGH TO NORTH FL. TUESDAY WILL BE WARM
WITH HIGHS IN THE U70S. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY
MID DAY WEDNESDAY BUT P SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE TO NRN AREAS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WINDY/COOLER WED WITH HIGHS IN THE U60S/L70S EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION....MOS AND HRRR GUIDANCE NOT INDICATING ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT...SO WILL KEEP VFR CONDS IN THE TAFS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT/THU...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
WATERS. REVISED START TIME OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE
WATERS TO THU AFT AS THIS IS WHEN NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15-20 KNOTS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SEAS UP TO 7 FEET. OTHERWISE SMALL CRAFT WILL
NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
WATERS THU MORNING FOR NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS TO 6
FEET.
THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 20-23KT WILL BUILD SEAS TO 6 TO 8
FEET THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. STRONGER WINDS/HIGHER SEAS WILL LINGER
FROM THE CAPE SWD (ESPECIALLY WELL OFFSHORE) FRI AS WINDS CONTINUE TO
VEER MORE TWD ENE. CONSEQUENTLY HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE SRN
AND CTRL OFFSHORE WATERS.
SAT-MON...EASTERLY FLOW 10-15 KNOTS SAT WILL WEAKEN BLO 10KT SUN/MON
AS THE RIDGE AXIS DROPS SWD ACROSS THE CTRL PENINSULA. SEAS 4-6 FT
SAT WILL DROP TO 3-5 FT SUN/MON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 47 66 54 69 / 0 0 10 10
MCO 49 72 53 72 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 52 71 59 70 / 0 0 10 10
VRB 51 72 59 71 / 0 0 10 10
LEE 47 70 50 72 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 50 70 52 71 / 0 0 0 10
ORL 51 71 53 72 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 51 72 59 71 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WEITLICH
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...CRISTALDI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
853 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 852 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
The main issue for the next 18 to 24 hours will be the strong
surface winds. Low pressure advancing across the Dakotas into
northern Minnesota by 12z tonight will cause a cold front to reach
western Illinois. During that time, the pressure gradient across
Illinois will remain the same, with only a rotation of the
orientation of the pressure pattern. The result will be a shift
in the surface winds from southeast to the southwest as wind
speeds remain 20 to 25 mph gusting to 35 mph overnight. Starting around
12z tomorrow and continuing through late morning, a 60-70kt 925mb
jet max will become positioned from SW to NE across southeastern
Illinois, putting our strongest wind gusts east of I-55. Some
gusts east of I-55 toward mid-morning tomorrow could reach near
50 mph at times.
Cloud cover overnight will generally remain with thin high
clouds, which usually allows for chilly low temps this time of
year. However, the strong southerly winds will prevent temps from
dropping, and most areas will see slowly warming temps the rest of
tonight as readings reach the mid 40s NE of CMI and the low 50s SW
of SPI.
Main updates this evening were to temps, winds, and sky grids.
Updated forecast info will be available shortly.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
Southeast winds gusting over 30 mph at times this afternoon, helping
to boost temperatures well into the 40s. Have seen some 50 degree
readings west of Springfield early this afternoon and 60s are fairly
widespread across central and western Missouri.
Not looking for much of a drop off in temperatures tonight, with
steady or rising temperatures from about 9 pm onward. Low level jet
really ramps up during the evening, with the RAP mode forecasting
2000 foot winds of 60-65 knots this evening and around 70 knots
after midnight over the southeast third of the forecast area. This
will help keep the wind gusts up and will go with gusts 30-35 mph in
most areas north of I-70. Stream of mid/high clouds will continue to
affect primarily the northern half of the forecast area tonight,
with some increase over the remainder of the area late tonight as
the cold front approaches.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
High pressure to the east, combined with a low pressure area to the
northeast will tighten the gradient considerably, and along with the
very warm air, will bring much stronger winds into the region than
this afternoon. Southwest winds in the morning are expected to
increase with sustained winds between 25 and 30 mph, with gusts of
near 40mph. These strong winds will continue into the afternoon, but
begin to taper off late afternoon after the dry trough moves through
and winds switch to more west-southwest. However, will keep the
advisory going through 00z tomorrow. Wind Advisory will be for the
whole area as well. Once this trough comes through Friday, zonal
flow will control the area through the weekend.
Another low pressure area will develop in the south and move toward
the area for the weekend. Models differ on how far north the low
pressure area gets, with the ECMWF furthest north. GFS and NAM are
furthest south and therefore much drier over the CWA. However, going
forecast for now is pcpn across the CWA Sat night and then just in
the southeast for Sunday. With model uncertainty still, will keep
forecast as is for now...which does include likely pops in the
southeast Sat night.
Temps will start out very warm tomorrow and should continue into Sat
ahead of the pcpn. Then temps cool as clouds and pcpn move through
the area Sunday. Temps next three days will be very above normal.
Extended period looks to be very dry as flow remains somewhat zonal
through the middle of next week. Extended models have some
disagreement on chances of pcpn Wed night and Thur, but best to keep
things dry for now until models work things out. Temps will be
cooler than this weekend, but still be slightly above normal. Temps
will be warmer early in the extended, then decrease some toward the
end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 537 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
Main concern for this TAF cycle is wind, as area remains in tight
gradient between strong low pressure over northern Rockies and
strong high pressure over eastern Great Lakes. This will produce
sustained 20-25 kt winds overnight with gusts near 30 kts. Above
the surface, a strong low level jet of 60 kts will be centered
around 1500 ft AGL. This will produce low level wind shear until
around 14Z. Winds will veer around to the southwest after sunrise
as the low pressure center tracks toward northern Wisconsin, and
continue with similar speeds. Winds may increase a few knots, with
gusts to 40 kts by midday into early afternoon, during peak
mixing. Speeds will quickly taper off towards 00Z.
While cirrus and some scattered mid level AC affects the area into
early evening, some model guidance suggests strong warm/moist
advection will lead to stratocu development with bases around
1500-2000 ft AGL. Confidence is low so have kept scattered mention
for the overnight hours.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Friday for ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
527 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
Southeast winds gusting over 30 mph at times this afternoon, helping
to boost temperatures well into the 40s. Have seen some 50 degree
readings west of Springfield early this afternoon and 60s are fairly
widespread across central and western Missouri.
Not looking for much of a drop off in temperatures tonight, with
steady or rising temperatures from about 9 pm onward. Low level jet
really ramps up during the evening, with the RAP mode forecasting
2000 foot winds of 60-65 knots this evening and around 70 knots
after midnight over the southeast third of the forecast area. This
will help keep the wind gusts up and will go with gusts 30-35 mph in
most areas north of I-70. Stream of mid/high clouds will continue to
affect primarily the northern half of the forecast area tonight,
with some increase over the remainder of the area late tonight as
the cold front approaches.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
High pressure to the east, combined with a low pressure area to the
northeast will tighten the gradient considerably, and along with the
very warm air, will bring much stronger winds into the region than
this afternoon. Southwest winds in the morning are expected to
increase with sustained winds between 25 and 30 mph, with gusts of
near 40mph. These strong winds will continue into the afternoon, but
begin to taper off late afternoon after the dry trough moves through
and winds switch to more west-southwest. However, will keep the
advisory going through 00z tomorrow. Wind Advisory will be for the
whole area as well. Once this trough comes through Friday, zonal
flow will control the area through the weekend.
Another low pressure area will develop in the south and move toward
the area for the weekend. Models differ on how far north the low
pressure area gets, with the ECMWF furthest north. GFS and NAM are
furthest south and therefore much drier over the CWA. However, going
forecast for now is pcpn across the CWA Sat night and then just in
the southeast for Sunday. With model uncertainty still, will keep
forecast as is for now...which does include likely pops in the
southeast Sat night.
Temps will start out very warm tomorrow and should continue into Sat
ahead of the pcpn. Then temps cool as clouds and pcpn move through
the area Sunday. Temps next three days will be very above normal.
Extended period looks to be very dry as flow remains somewhat zonal
through the middle of next week. Extended models have some
disagreement on chances of pcpn Wed night and Thur, but best to keep
things dry for now until models work things out. Temps will be
cooler than this weekend, but still be slightly above normal. Temps
will be warmer early in the extended, then decrease some toward the
end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 527 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
Main concern for this TAF cycle is wind, as area remains in tight
gradient between strong low pressure over northern Rockies and
strong high pressure over eastern Great Lakes. This will produce
sustained 20-25 kt winds overnight with gusts near 30 kts. Above
the surface, a strong low level jet of 60 kts will be centered
around 1500 ft AGL. This will produce low level wind shear until
around 14Z. Winds will veer around to the southwest after sunrise
as the low pressure center tracks toward northern Wisconsin, and
continue with similar speeds. Winds may increase a few knots, with
gusts to 40 kts by midday into early afternoon, during peak
mixing. Speeds will quickly taper off towards 00Z.
While cirrus and some scattered mid level AC affects the area into
early evening, some model guidance suggests strong warm/moist
advection will lead to stratocu development with bases around
1500-2000 ft AGL. Confidence is low so have kept scattered mention
for the overnight hours.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Friday for ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
328 AM CST WED FEB 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST WED FEB 17 2016
Overcast conditions persist across central and southeast Illinois
early this morning: however, 08z/2am satellite imagery is showing a
large clear area over much of Wisconsin into northern Illinois. With
northwesterly winds within the cloud layer, this clearing will
generally remain just N/NE of the KILX CWA. Meanwhile, plenty of
mid/high clouds are noted immediately upstream across the Dakotas
into Iowa. So other than a few brief breaks in the clouds
along/northeast of I-74, mostly cloudy skies will prevail today.
High temperatures will be in the middle to upper 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST WED FEB 17 2016
The main weather story in the extended will be a pronounced warming
trend by the end of the week. As high pressure drifts east of the
region on Thursday, strong southerly winds will develop across
central Illinois. Forecast soundings suggest gusts of 25-30mph by
afternoon, which will help push high temperatures into the upper 40s
to around 50 degrees. A weak cold front will approach from the west
Thursday night into Friday, further tightening the pressure gradient
and increasing winds. NAM is showing a very strong 70-80mph 925mb
jet developing in advance of the front from the Ozarks northeastward
into Indiana by 12z Fri. Once the sun comes up, some of this
momentum will get mixed to the surface Friday morning, resulting
in wind gusts potentially approaching 50mph across the E/SE CWA.
Further north and west across the remainder of the area, gusts of
around 40mph will be common. May eventually need a Wind
Advisory, particularly along/east of I-57 where stronger gusts
will be focused. Thanks to the strong southerly flow and the
return of sunshine, temperatures will soar well into the 60s.
Front will have very little moisture to work with, so will pass
through the region with only a few clouds and no precip. Once it
exits, a mild Pacific origin airmass will prevail through the
upcoming weekend with high temperatures in the 50s for both Saturday
and Sunday. A potential fly-in-the-ointment for the weekend
forecast will be the development of a surface wave along the
departing boundary. All models show the front becoming parallel to
the zonal flow aloft and stalling along the Ohio River on Saturday.
A short-wave trough skirting through the Plains will then interact
with the boundary and a weak surface low will develop and track
eastward into Indiana by Sunday. However...the models do not agree
on how deep the surface low will become or how much precip will be
generated. The GEM is by far the most aggressive with the wave,
resulting in a 1006mb low over central Illinois by Sunday afternoon.
Since the approaching short-wave appears to be very minor within the
fast zonal flow pattern, have rejected this solution entirely.
Prefer the much weaker ECMWF, which shows a 1014mb low tracking
along the front Saturday night. As a result, will include chance
PoPs for rain across the southern half of the CWA along/south of the
I-72 corridor Saturday night, then SE of I-70 into Sunday. After
that, a return to cooler and drier conditions will be on tap for
early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
The cold front has progressed SE of all TAF sites, with northwest
winds and MVFR clouds prevailing across the area. Despite some
holes in the cloud cover upstream approaching far NW IL, will
continue with MVFR cloud conditions through the rest of the night
and much of tomorrow, based on NAM forecast soundings. The GFS is
more optimistic with some clearing during the day tomorrow, but
RAP and HRRR support the longer period of cloud cover through
tomorrow, so will keep MVFR going at all terminal sites until
satellite trends indicate otherwise. A strong low level inversion
is projected to be the main feature keeping clouds in place. Winds
will initially increase slightly out of the northwest in the
post-frontal airmass, but speed will most likely remain less than
10kt. Advancing high pressure tomorrow will create variable wind
directions as the ridge axis moves across IL. Wind directions
should become south to southeast toward sunset tomorrow, with
speeds remaining less than 10kt.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1151 PM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
A band of light rain and snow has been progressing southeast
across our forecast area, triggered by lift ahead of the advancing
cold front. Model analysis shows that frontal circulation will
affect our southeastern counties until shortly after midnight.
Thermal profiles are supporting enough melting in the lowest
levels for light rain to reach the ground in areas south of
Lincoln to Mattoon. Observation reports north of there have been
consistently showing light snow, but it appears possible that some
light rain could be reaching the ground farther north. Have
updated the PoP and weather grids to match expected trends the
rest of the night.
A few holes in the cloud cover upstream could produce widely
varying low temperatures later tonight, if they reach our northern
counties. Clear areas could see colder lows by several degrees.
Northwest winds behind the cold front should increase enough to
keep dense fog out of the picture, but patchy fog could still
develop. Have not included a mention of fog, as visibility should
remain 4 miles or better through morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
Initial area of rain/snow continues to push southeast and mainly
covers far southern Illinois this afternoon. However, with the
northern upper wave, rain/snow showers have been a bit more numerous
than first thought. Have recently updated the afternoon forecast to
increase the PoP`s a bit with scattered rain/snow showers over areas
along and north of I-74. Some clear spots have also developed
between I-74 and I-72, which has allowed temperatures in these areas
to increase into the upper 30s to around 40 degrees.
High pressure over the central Plains will track into Missouri
tonight. Large cloud shield extends northwest into southern
Minnesota, and a low level inversion around 850 mb should bottle up
the moisture below it, preventing any wholesale clearing trends
overnight in our area. Temperatures expected to fall into the lower
20s across the far northern CWA, but range into the upper 20s south
of I-72.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
Quiet weather and unseasonably mild conditions will be the rule over
the next several days across central and southeast Illinois. A long
advertised warm up will begin by late Wednesday as upper-level
heights gradually rise and southerly low level flow develops. The
warmest day of the next several will be Friday, where widespread
highs in the 60s are anticipated. However, temperatures that mild
this time of year typically don`t occur without strong winds
transporting them into the area. This scenario is no exception, with
southerly wind gusts to around 30 MPH likely on Thursday and gusts
to around 40 MPH expected Friday.
A cold front will come through the area by late Friday, but it is
expected to come through dry. The upper level flow is progged to
stay zonal through the weekend in the wake of the front, so only a
modest cool down (highs mainly in the 50s) is expected through
Sunday. A fast moving short wave in the zonal flow will bring a low
chance for rain to the area by Saturday night into Sunday, but would
not be surprised to see most areas remaining dry.
Ridging is forecast to build across the eastern Pacific and western
North America to start the next work week. This building ridge will
allow northern stream energy to dig across eastern North America for
Monday and Tuesday. While no significant precipitation is
anticipated with the approach of this troffing and associated colder
air, but temperatures will trend back toward normal levels for late
February (highs around 40).
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
The cold front has progressed SE of all TAF sites, with northwest
winds and MVFR clouds prevailing across the area. Despite some
holes in the cloud cover upstream approaching far NW IL, will
continue with MVFR cloud conditions through the rest of the night
and much of tomorrow, based on NAM forecast soundings. The GFS is
more optimistic with some clearing during the day tomorrow, but
RAP and HRRR support the longer period of cloud cover through
tomorrow, so will keep MVFR going at all terminal sites until
satellite trends indicate otherwise. A strong low level inversion
is projected to be the main feature keeping clouds in place. Winds
will initially increase slightly out of the northwest in the
post-frontal airmass, but speed will most likely remain less than
10kt. Advancing high pressure tomorrow will create variable wind
directions as the ridge axis moves across IL. Wind directions
should become south to southeast toward sunset tomorrow, with
speeds remaining less than 10kt.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
715 PM EST THU FEB 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EST THU FEB 18 2016
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT. THIS WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT THROUGH AND BRING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WINDY
CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY. WIND GUST BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. ANY RAINFALL ON FRIDAY WILL BE
LIGHT WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES ALONG AND NORTH OF ROUTE 30.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP BACK A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT AND THEN
BEGIN A SLOW RISE LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S FOR FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND WILL ALSO BE MILD
WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST THU FEB 18 2016
CONTD WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD TO LEAD TO EARLY EVENING
LOW TEMPS FOLLOWED BY SLOW WARMING OVERNIGHT. VIGOROUS ENERGY ACROSS
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TO LIFT RAPIDLY ENEWD THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS
TO NORTHERN UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH FRI EVENING. 120-160M/12 HR
HEIGHT FALLS DRIVE STRONG CYCLOGENESIS WELL W-NW-N OF CWA WITH
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES FOR GUSTS TO 35-
40KTS BY MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...SUFFICIENT FOR WIND ADVISORY.
LACK OF MOIST GROUND AND FOLIAGE SHOULD BY/LARGE HELP TO PRECLUDE
MORE ADVERSE EFFECTS/NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES. SLIGHT CHC LIGHT RAIN
FAR NRN TIER AND PERHAPS A MIDDAY SPRINKLE NORTH OF ROUTE 30
COINCIDENT WITH MID LEVEL TROF PASSAGE...OTHERWISE WARM/DRY/WINDY
WITH SLIGHT UPWARD NUDGE AGAIN...LENDING SOME CREDENCE TOWARDS
WARMER EC AND IN LIGHT OF NON DIURNAL UPSWING IN TEMPS STARTING
AROUND 04 UTC TONIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST THU FEB 18 2016
BY IN LARGE THE LONG TERM PERIOD APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DOMINATING MOST OF THE REGION.
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SINK INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THEN HEAD
BACK NORTH SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR ONLY MINOR TEMPERATURE CHANGES AS
LOWS DROP BACK INTO THE 40S AND THEN CLIMB BACK INTO THE 50S ON SAT.
A SERIES OF PACIFIC DISTURBANCES WILL DROP INTO THE PLAINS AND THEN
EAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY WITH THE FIRST
ARRIVING SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY TO BRING AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
THERMAL PROFILES POINT TOWARDS ALL LIQUID SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY ENDING
AS A A TOUCH OF LIGHT SNOW TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. HAVE KEPT WITH
MIX DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN NE AREAS.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROP BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE GENERAL TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE REGION.
ANY ARCTIC AIR LOOKS TO REMAIN TRAPPED WELL NORTH WITH NO IMMEDIATE
SIGNS OF MAKING A RUN SOUTH IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. WILL NEED TO
WATCH YET ANOTHER EAST COAST SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE TO SEE IF ANY
IMPACTS ON OUR AREA. SUPERBLEND OF MODELS TRIES TO BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIP IN TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT CONSENSUS LEANING
TOWARDS KEEPING DRY AS WESTWARD IMPACTS LOOK MINIMAL IF NOT NIL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM EST THU FEB 18 2016
FOREMOST CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS W/RAMPING LLWS IN ADV OF CYCLONE
TRACKING EWD ACRS THE NRN PLAINS PEAKING TO 60-65KTS AT FLGT LVL
020 IN THE 08-12Z TIMEFRAME. THIS MAY INDEED EXTEND BEYOND THE
IMPLIED 14Z TIMEFRAME PENDING NWD PROGRESSION OF WMFNTL BNDRY AND
CORRESPONDING XPCD ESCALATION OF SFC GRADIENT AFT SUNRISE FRI.
REGARDLESS NR TERM RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SFC PK GUSTS EXCEEDING
50KTS FRI AFTN TIMED W/MAXIMIZING MIXED LYR AND STRONGEST MOMENTUMXFER.
OTRWS VFR FLGT CONDS THROUGH THE PD.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ TO 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/
FRIDAY FOR INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ077>081.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...T
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
104 PM MST WED FEB 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED FEB 17 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE
SCALE RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN US WITH NW FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. AT
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE FROM EASTERN COLORADO AND
NEBRASKA WITH TROUGH AXIS ACROSS OUR CWA.
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH IMPACT FIRE WEATHER EVENT THURSDAY. SEE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION FOR DETAILS ON FIRE WEATHER WATCH.
TODAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...LARGE SCALE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION EASTWARD
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DEEP SW FLOW DEVELOPING THURSDAY ON WESTERN
EXTENT OF UPPER RIDGE AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH A DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THESE
PERIODS. MODEL TEMP PROFILES SHOW GOOD MIXING HEIGHTS IN THE 830-
800MB RANGE THURSDAY...AND THIS WILL HELP MIX STRONGER WINDS TO THE
SURFACE AIDED BY UNIDIRECTIONAL GRADIENT THROUGH 500MB. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT GUSTS IN THE 35-45 MPH RANGE (ASSUMING INCREASING CIRRUS
DOESNT COMPLICATE THINGS FOR US).
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WITH
RECORD HIGHS LIKELY ACROSS OUR CWA ON THURSDAY. LATEST STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER ON HIGHS BOTH DAYS. BASED ON
BIAS CORRECTED 2M TEMPS AND STANDARD BIAS OFF 925MB/850MB TEMPS
ALOFT HIGHS TODAY COULD BE NEAR 70F...AND IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AT
SOME LOCATIONS THURSDAY. A FEW MONTHLY RECORDS COULD BE IN PLAY FOR
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE UNSEASONABLY HIGH TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WELL MIXED DESPITE CAA BEHIND
FROPA. IN FACT WE MAY BE LOOKING AT RECORD HIGH MINS BOTH NIGHTS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM MST WED FEB 17 2016
PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH
RELATIVELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SERIES OF LEE SIDE
SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A
STRONGER TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A
SHORTWAVE H5 RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF MOISTURE...NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED WITH THE WEAKER SHORTWAVES FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL EMERGE LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS THE LARGER TROUGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. EARLY INDICATIONS
POINT TO MAINLY RAIN AS THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE WITH A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY TO THE EAST. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN 7 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE HIGHS AND 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MST WED FEB 17 2016
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAFS. LIGHT TO BREEZY WINDS TODAY
WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVER
THE TAF SITES TONIGHT CAUSING A FEW HOURS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
LATE TOMORROW MORNING THE LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE...BECOMING
GUSTY FOR KGLD DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KSZ027>029-041-042.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1121 AM MST WED FEB 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED FEB 17 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE
SCALE RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN US WITH NW FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. AT
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE FROM EASTERN COLORADO AND
NEBRASKA WITH TROUGH AXIS ACROSS OUR CWA.
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH IMPACT FIRE WEATHER EVENT THURSDAY. SEE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION FOR DETAILS ON FIRE WEATHER WATCH.
TODAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...LARGE SCALE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION EASTWARD
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DEEP SW FLOW DEVELOPING THURSDAY ON WESTERN
EXTENT OF UPPER RIDGE AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH A DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THESE
PERIODS. MODEL TEMP PROFILES SHOW GOOD MIXING HEIGHTS IN THE 830-
800MB RANGE THURSDAY...AND THIS WILL HELP MIX STRONGER WINDS TO THE
SURFACE AIDED BY UNIDIRECTIONAL GRADIENT THROUGH 500MB. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT GUSTS IN THE 35-45 MPH RANGE (ASSUMING INCREASING CIRRUS
DOESNT COMPLICATE THINGS FOR US).
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WITH
RECORD HIGHS LIKELY ACROSS OUR CWA ON THURSDAY. LATEST STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER ON HIGHS BOTH DAYS. BASED ON
BIAS CORRECTED 2M TEMPS AND STANDARD BIAS OFF 925MB/850MB TEMPS
ALOFT HIGHS TODAY COULD BE NEAR 70F...AND IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AT
SOME LOCATIONS THURSDAY. A FEW MONTHLY RECORDS COULD BE IN PLAY FOR
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE UNSEASONABLY HIGH TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WELL MIXED DESPITE CAA BEHIND
FROPA. IN FACT WE MAY BE LOOKING AT RECORD HIGH MINS BOTH NIGHTS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM MST WED FEB 17 2016
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE TRI STATE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MID LEVEL FLOW
AT 500MB WILL REMAIN ZONAL THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER
BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ON THE WEST COAST BY THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK...THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES BY MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK.
BY MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVE SE
ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...THRU EASTERN COLORADO
THEN QUICKLY SOUTH OF THE CWA GOING INTO TUESDAY. BASED ON
CURRENT TRACK...MOST OF THE QPF WILL AVOID THE REGION...LEAVING
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN.
WARMEST TIME FRAME IN THE EXTENDED WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY WITH
WESTERLY ZONAL DOWNSLOPE FLOW OVER THE AREA. LOOKING FOR 60S ON
THAT DAY...WITH A DOWNTREND INTO THE 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
WINDS SHIFT TO MORE NW ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION. FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE...HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE U40S TUESDAY WITH NLY A
REBOUND TO AROUND 50F FOR WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL START OFF
INTO THE LOWER 30S SATURDAY NIGHT...W/ 20S FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS INTO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY THRU MONDAY
WILL END UP HAVING ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS...WHILE OVERALL FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...NEAR NORMAL WITH THE ADDITION OF COLDER
AIR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MST WED FEB 17 2016
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAFS. LIGHT TO BREEZY WINDS TODAY
WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVER
THE TAF SITES TONIGHT CAUSING A FEW HOURS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
LATE TOMORROW MORNING THE LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE...BECOMING
GUSTY FOR KGLD DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED FEB 17 2016
MODELS SHOW INCREASING CIRRUS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
TROUGH ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD COMPLICATE MIXING HEIGHTS...HOWEVER
EVEN THEN IT APPEARS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT THE STRONG GRADIENT IN
PLACE OVER OUR CWA WILL STILL SUPPORT RED FLAG CRITERIA WINDS.
FUELS CONTINUE TO BE A QUESTION NORTH OF THE CURRENT WATCH DESPITE
LIKELIHOOD OF RH/WIND CRITERIA DUE TO IMPACTS OF RECENT SNOW MELT.
THIS MAY NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON ONE HOUR FUELS OR
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE GRASS FIRES IN THE FORECAST
CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY SINCE WE HAVE HAD SEVERAL VERY MILD/DRY
DAYS (AND ANOTHER TODAY). NO CHANGES TO FIRE WEATHER WATCH DURING
THIS UPDATE CYCLE TO ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO COORDINATE FUEL CONDITIONS
WITH OUR FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED FEB 17 2016
RECORDS AND CURRENT FORECAST FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY.
SITE.............DAILY RECORD...CURRENT FORECAST
GOODLAND, KS.........74...............79
MCCOOK, NE...........82...............76
BURLINGTON,CO........74...............79
HILL CITY,KS.........75...............82
COLBY, KS............81...............79
TRIBUNE, KS..........79...............81
YUMA, CO.............73...............75
CURRENT FEBRUARY MONTHLY HIGH TEMP RECORDS...
GOODLAND.....81 (02-28-2006 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
MCCOOK.......83 (02-23-1933 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
BURLINGTON...82 (02-11-1962)
HILL CITY....86 (02-28-2006 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
COLBY........83 (02-12-1911)
TRIBUNE......81 (02-20-1981)
YUMA.........79 (02-12-1962 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KSZ027>029-041-042.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JTL
FIRE WEATHER...DR
CLIMATE...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
421 AM MST WED FEB 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED FEB 17 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE
SCALE RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN US WITH NW FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. AT
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE FROM EASTERN COLORADO AND
NEBRASKA WITH TROUGH AXIS ACROSS OUR CWA.
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH IMPACT FIRE WEATHER EVENT THURSDAY. SEE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION FOR DETAILS ON FIRE WEATHER WATCH.
TODAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...LARGE SCALE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION EASTWARD
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DEEP SW FLOW DEVELOPING THURSDAY ON WESTERN
EXTENT OF UPPER RIDGE AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH A DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THESE
PERIODS. MODEL TEMP PROFILES SHOW GOOD MIXING HEIGHTS IN THE 830-
800MB RANGE THURSDAY...AND THIS WILL HELP MIX STRONGER WINDS TO THE
SURFACE AIDED BY UNIDIRECTIONAL GRADIENT THROUGH 500MB. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT GUSTS IN THE 35-45 MPH RANGE (ASSUMING INCREASING CIRRUS
DOESNT COMPLICATE THINGS FOR US).
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WITH
RECORD HIGHS LIKELY ACROSS OUR CWA ON THURSDAY. LATEST STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER ON HIGHS BOTH DAYS. BASED ON
BIAS CORRECTED 2M TEMPS AND STANDARD BIAS OFF 925MB/850MB TEMPS
ALOFT HIGHS TODAY COULD BE NEAR 70F...AND IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AT
SOME LOCATIONS THURSDAY. A FEW MONTHLY RECORDS COULD BE IN PLAY FOR
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE UNSEASONABLY HIGH TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WELL MIXED DESPITE CAA BEHIND
FROPA. IN FACT WE MAY BE LOOKING AT RECORD HIGH MINS BOTH NIGHTS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM MST WED FEB 17 2016
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE TRI STATE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MID LEVEL FLOW
AT 500MB WILL REMAIN ZONAL THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER
BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ON THE WEST COAST BY THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK...THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES BY MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK.
BY MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVE SE
ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...THRU EASTERN COLORADO
THEN QUICKLY SOUTH OF THE CWA GOING INTO TUESDAY. BASED ON
CURRENT TRACK...MOST OF THE QPF WILL AVOID THE REGION...LEAVING
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN.
WARMEST TIME FRAME IN THE EXTENDED WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY WITH
WESTERLY ZONAL DOWNSLOPE FLOW OVER THE AREA. LOOKING FOR 60S ON
THAT DAY...WITH A DOWNTREND INTO THE 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
WINDS SHIFT TO MORE NW ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION. FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE...HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE U40S TUESDAY WITH NLY A
REBOUND TO AROUND 50F FOR WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL START OFF
INTO THE LOWER 30S SATURDAY NIGHT...W/ 20S FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS INTO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY THRU MONDAY
WILL END UP HAVING ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS...WHILE OVERALL FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...NEAR NORMAL WITH THE ADDITION OF COLDER
AIR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MST WED FEB 17 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY AND INCREASE MAINLY AT KGLD. WIND GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 15-22 KT WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEER WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS AS A
STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS 05-06Z. THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT SHOULD
TRANSITION EASTWARD AFTER 09Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED FEB 17 2016
MODELS SHOW INCREASING CIRRUS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
TROUGH ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD COMPLICATE MIXING HEIGHTS...HOWEVER
EVEN THEN IT APPEARS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT THE STRONG GRADIENT IN
PLACE OVER OUR CWA WILL STILL SUPPORT RED FLAG CRITERIA WINDS.
FUELS CONTINUE TO BE A QUESTION NORTH OF THE CURRENT WATCH DESPITE
LIKELIHOOD OF RH/WIND CRITERIA DUE TO IMPACTS OF RECENT SNOW MELT.
THIS MAY NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON ONE HOUR FUELS OR
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE GRASS FIRES IN THE FORECAST
CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY SINCE WE HAVE HAD SEVERAL VERY MILD/DRY
DAYS (AND ANOTHER TODAY). NO CHANGES TO FIRE WEATHER WATCH DURING
THIS UPDATE CYCLE TO ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO COORDINATE FUEL CONDITIONS
WITH OUR FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED FEB 17 2016
RECORDS AND CURRENT FORECAST FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY.
SITE.............DAILY RECORD...CURRENT FORECAST
GOODLAND, KS.........74...............79
MCCOOK, NE...........82...............76
BURLINGTON,CO........74...............79
HILL CITY,KS.........75...............82
COLBY, KS............81...............79
TRIBUNE, KS..........79...............81
YUMA, CO.............73...............75
CURRENT FEBRUARY MONTHLY HIGH TEMP RECORDS...
GOODLAND.....81 (02-28-2006 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
MCCOOK.......83 (02-23-1933 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
BURLINGTON...82 (02-11-1962)
HILL CITY....86 (02-28-2006 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
COLBY........83 (02-12-1911)
TRIBUNE......81 (02-20-1981)
YUMA.........79 (02-12-1962 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KSZ027>029-041-042.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...DR
CLIMATE...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS GOODLAND KS
306 AM MST WED FEB 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED FEB 17 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE
SCALE RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN US WITH NW FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. AT
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE FROM EASTERN COLORADO AND
NEBRASKA WITH TROUGH AXIS ACROSS OUR CWA.
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH IMPACT FIRE WEATHER EVENT THURSDAY. SEE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION FOR DETAILS ON FIRE WEATHER WATCH.
TODAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...LARGE SCALE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION EASTWARD
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DEEP SW FLOW DEVELOPING THURSDAY ON WESTERN
EXTENT OF UPPER RIDGE AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH A DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THESE
PERIODS. MODEL TEMP PROFILES SHOW GOOD MIXING HEIGHTS IN THE 830-
800MB RANGE THURSDAY...AND THIS WILL HELP MIX STRONGER WINDS TO THE
SURFACE AIDED BY UNIDIRECTIONAL GRADIENT THROUGH 500MB. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT GUSTS IN THE 35-45 MPH RANGE (ASSUMING INCREASING CIRRUS
DOESNT COMPLICATE THINGS FOR US).
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WITH
RECORD HIGHS LIKELY ACROSS OUR CWA ON THURSDAY. LATEST STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER ON HIGHS BOTH DAYS. BASED ON
BIAS CORRECTED 2M TEMPS AND STANDARD BIAS OFF 925MB/850MB TEMPS
ALOFT HIGHS TODAY COULD BE NEAR 70F...AND IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AT
SOME LOCATIONS THURSDAY. A FEW MONTHLY RECORDS COULD BE IN PLAY FOR
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE UNSEASONABLY HIGH TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WELL MIXED DESPITE CAA BEHIND
FROPA. IN FACT WE MAY BE LOOKING AT RECORD HIGH MINS BOTH NIGHTS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM MST WED FEB 17 2016
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE TRI STATE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MID LEVEL FLOW
AT 500MB WILL REMAIN ZONAL THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER
BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ON THE WEST COAST BY THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK...THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES BY MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK.
BY MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVE SE
ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...THRU EASTERN COLORADO
THEN QUICKLY SOUTH OF THE CWA GOING INTO TUESDAY. BASED ON
CURRENT TRACK...MOST OF THE QPF WILL AVOID THE REGION...LEAVING
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN.
WARMEST TIME FRAME IN THE EXTENDED WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY WITH
WESTERLY ZONAL DOWNSLOPE FLOW OVER THE AREA. LOOKING FOR 60S ON
THAT DAY...WITH A DOWNTREND INTO THE 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
WINDS SHIFT TO MORE NW ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION. FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE...HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE U40S TUESDAY WITH NLY A
REBOUND TO AROUND 50F FOR WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL START OFF
INTO THE LOWER 30S SATURDAY NIGHT...W/ 20S FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS INTO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY THRU MONDAY
WILL END UP HAVING ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS...WHILE OVERALL FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...NEAR NORMAL WITH THE ADDITION OF COLDER
AIR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MST TUE FEB 16 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS IN THE 6 TO 11 KNOT RANGE WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WINDS AT KGLD COULD
GUST TO NEAR 21 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED FEB 17 2016
MODELS SHOW INCREASING CIRRUS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
TROUGH ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD COMPLICATE MIXING HEIGHTS...HOWEVER
EVEN THEN IT APPEARS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT THE STRONG GRADIENT IN
PLACE OVER OUR CWA WILL STILL SUPPORT RED FLAG CRITERIA WINDS.
FUELS CONTINUE TO BE A QUESTION NORTH OF THE CURRENT WATCH DESPITE
LIKELIHOOD OF RH/WIND CRITERIA DUE TO IMPACTS OF RECENT SNOW MELT.
THIS MAY NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON ONE HOUR FUELS OR
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE GRASS FIRES IN THE FORECAST
CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY SINCE WE HAVE HAD SEVERAL VERY MILD/DRY
DAYS (AND ANOTHER TODAY). NO CHANGES TO FIRE WEATHER WATCH DURING
THIS UPDATE CYCLE TO ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO COORDINATE FUEL CONDITIONS
WITH OUR FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED FEB 17 2016
RECORDS AND CURRENT FORECAST FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY.
SITE.............DAILY RECORD...CURRENT FORECAST
GOODLAND, KS.........74...............79
MCCOOK, NE...........82...............76
BURLINGTON,CO........74...............79
HILL CITY,KS.........75...............82
COLBY, KS............81...............79
TRIBUNE, KS..........79...............81
YUMA, CO.............73...............75
CURRENT FEBRUARY MONTHLY HIGH TEMP RECORDS...
GOODLAND.....81 (02-28-2006 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
MCCOOK.......83 (02-23-1933 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
BURLINGTON...82 (02-11-1962)
HILL CITY....86 (02-28-2006 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
COLBY........83 (02-12-1911)
TRIBUNE......81 (02-20-1981)
YUMA.........79 (02-12-1962 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KSZ027>029-041-042.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...DR
CLIMATE...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
302 AM MST WED FEB 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED FEB 17 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANAYSINS SHOW LARGE
SCALE RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN US WITH NW FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. AT
THE SURFACE LOW PRSSURE IS IN PLACE FROM EASTERN COLROADO AND
NEBRASKA WITH TROUGH AXIS ACROSS OUR CWA.
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH IMPACT FIRE WEATHER EVENT THURSDAY. SEE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION FOR DEAILS ON FIRE WEATHER WATCH.
TODAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...LARGE SCALE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION EASTWARD
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DEEP SW FLOW DEVELOPING THURSDAY ON WESTERN
EXTNENT OF UPPER RIDGE AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH A DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DRY CONDTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THESE
PERIODS. MODEL TEMP PROFLES SHOW GOOD MIXING HEIGHTS IN THE 830-
800MB RANGE THURSDAY...AND THIS WILL HELP MIX STRONGER WINDS TO THE
SURFACE AIDED BY UNIDIRECTIONAL GRADIENT THROUGH 500MB. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT GUSTS IN THE 35-45 MPH RANGE (ASSUMING INCREASING CIRRUS
DOESNT COMPLICATE THINGS FOR US).
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WITH
RECORD HIGHS LIKELY ACROSS OUR CWA ON THURSDAY. LATEST STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER ON HIGHS BOTH DAYS. BASED ON
BIAS CORRECTED 2M TEMPS AND STANDARD BIAS OFF 925MB/850MB TEMPS
ALOFT HIGHS TODAY COULD BE NEAR 70F...AND IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AT
SOME LOCATIONS THURSDAY. A FEW MONTHLY RECORDS COULD BE IN PLAY FOR
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPEATURES WILL ALSO BE UNSEASONBALY HIGH TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTICUARLY THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE WINDY
CONDTIONS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WELL MIXED DESPITE CAA BEHIND
FROPA. IN FACT WE MAY BE LOOKING AT RECORD HIGH MINS BOTH NIGHTS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM MST WED FEB 17 2016
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE TRI STATE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MID LEVEL FLOW
AT 500MB WILL REMAIN ZONAL THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER
BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ON THE WEST COAST BY THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK...THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES BY MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK.
BY MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVE SE
ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...THRU EASTERN COLORADO
THEN QUICKLY SOUTH OF THE CWA GOING INTO TUESDAY. BASED ON
CURRENT TRACK...MOST OF THE QPF WILL AVOID THE REGION...LEAVING
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN.
WARMEST TIME FRAME IN THE EXTENDED WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY WITH
WESTERLY ZONAL DOWNSLOPE FLOW OVER THE AREA. LOOKING FOR 60S ON
THAT DAY...WITH A DOWNTREND INTO THE 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
WINDS SHIFT TO MORE NW ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION. FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE...HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE U40S TUESDAY WITH NLY A
REBOUND TO AROUND 50F FOR WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL START OFF
INTO THE LOWER 30S SATURDAY NIGHT...W/ 20S FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS INTO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY THRU MONDAY
WILL END UP HAVING ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS...WHILE OVERALL FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...NEAR NORMAL WITH THE ADDITION OF COLDER
AIR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MST TUE FEB 16 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS IN THE 6 TO 11 KNOT RANGE WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WINDS AT KGLD COULD
GUST TO NEAR 21 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED FEB 17 2016
MODELS SHOW INCREASING CIRRUS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
TROUGH ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD COMPLICATE MIXING HEIGHTS...HOWEVER
EVEN THEN IT APPEARS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT THE STRONG GRADIENT IN
PLACE OVER OUR CWA WILL STILL SUPPORT RED FLAG CRITERIA WINDS.
FUELS CONTINUE TO BE A QUESTION NORTH OF THE CURRENT WATCH DEPITE
LIKELYHOOD OF RH/WIND CRITIERA...DUE TO IMPACTS OF RECENT SNOW
MELT. THIS MAY NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON ONE HOUR FUEL
CURING OR POTENIAL FOR LARGE GRASS FIRES IN THE FORECAST
CONDTIONS...PARTICUARLY SINCE WE HAVE HAD SEVERAL VERY MILD/DRY
DAYS (AND ANOTHER TODAY). NO CHANGES TO FIRE WEATHER WATCH DURING
THIS UPDATE CYCLE TO ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO COORDINATE FUEL CONDTIONS
WITH OUR FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED FEB 17 2016
RECORDS AND CURRENT FORECAST FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY.
SITE.............DAILY RECORD...CURRENT FORECAST
GOODLAND, KS.........74...............79
MCCOOK, NE...........82...............76
BURLINGTON,CO........74...............79
HILL CITY,KS.........75...............82
COLBY, KS............81...............79
TRIBUNE, KS..........79...............81
YUMA, CO.............73...............75
CURRENT FEBRUARY MONTHLY HIGH TEMP RECORDS...
GOODLAND.....81 (02-28-2006 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
MCCOOK.......83 (02-23-1933 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
BURLINGTON...82 (02-11-1962)
HILL CITY....86 (02-28-2006 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
COLBY........83 (02-12-1911)
TRIBUNE......81 (02-20-1981)
YUMA.........79 (02-12-1962 AND PREVIOUS YEARS)
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KSZ027>029-041-042.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...DR
CLIMATE...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1250 PM EST WED FEB 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST WED FEB 17 2016
THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED WITH THE LATEST HOURLY
TEMPERATURE...WIND AND HUMIDITY OBS DATA. ALSO TWEAKED THE WEATHER
TYPE GRIDS TO REFLECT A LONGER DURATION OF SNOW FLURRIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND A MORE ACCURATE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE ONGOING
PRECIPITATION. ALSO REMOVED ANY OUTDATED WORDING FROM THE FORECAST
TEXT PRODUCT. A NEW SET OF ZONES HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED. LAST
BUT NOT LEAST...ALSO UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO
REMOVE MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE MORNING FOG.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EST WED FEB 17 2016
THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A RIDGE PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES MOVING FROM
THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. FURTHER WEST...A CLOSED LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH A TROUGH TRIALING
SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. OVERALL...THE
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FORECAST TO BE RATHER ZONAL IN NATURE
TO END THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS THE
RIDGE INITIALLY IN PLACE MOVES EAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
PASS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE TO THE SOUTH MOVING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
AND APPALACHIANS. AT THE SFC...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD ALSO
PASS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL
AND RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST
A RATHER MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE OH VALLEY BY
LATE FRIDAY SHOULD MOVE INTO OR ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
THEN STALL OUT OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SAT EVENING AND
SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
MAINLY FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY ON SAT.
AFTER A POSSIBLE LULL IN SHOWER CHANCES...THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TO START THE WEEKEND. THE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME AN OPEN SHORTWAVE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW AND MOVE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...ROCKIES AND PLAINS AND REACH THE MS AND OH
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD BRING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE PATTERN SHOULD
AGAIN BEGIN TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS
THE WEST AND TROUGH TAKING SHAPE FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTH INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS. MODEL UNCERTAINTY FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO
MODEL IN TIMING AND PHASING OR INTERACTION OF SHORTWAVES AS WELL
AS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION LEAD TO UNCERTAINTIES
AS TO HOW MUCH AND HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST DEEPER MOISTURE MAY GET
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE BOTTOM LINE THE END OF THE PERIOD SHOULD
BE UNSETTLED WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF TO BELOW NORMAL AFTER
STARTING THE EXTENDED PERIOD ABOVE NORMAL.
THESE ALSO LEAD TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE THERMAL PROFILE BY LATE
IN THE PERIOD AND JUST AFTER THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME A MODEL
CONSENSUS BLEND WAS USED WHICH KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES THOUGH ARE GENERALLY FROM CUMBERLAND VALLEY NORTH AND EAST
ALONG THE VA BORDER AND TO THE WV BORDER...AND LOWER FURTHER
NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE PRECIP AS ALL
RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES POTENTIALLY HIGHER AFTER THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS
LOW AND THE EVOLUTION OF THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM TO AFFECT EAST KY
BEARS WATCHING. WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN LOW
PROBABILITIES IN THE EXPERIMENTAL DAY 7 WINTER WEATHER
OUTLOOK...WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST WED FEB 17 2016
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT JKL...SYM...AND SJS THROUGH
AROUND 8Z ON THURSDAY...WHILE LOZ AND SME WILL ONLY BE SEEING
THESE CONDITIONS THROUGH 19 OR 20Z TODAY. AFTER 20Z...LOZ AND SME
SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...WITH MVFR CIGS AND LOW
CLOUDS ON TAP THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SYM SHOULD BEGIN
SEEING MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 8 AND 9Z TOMORROW...WITH JKL AND SJS
FINALLY IMPROVING TO MVFR BETWEEN 10 AND 11Z ON THURSDAY. PATCHY
SPRINKLES AND SNOW FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS FAR
EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE AREA BY 2 OR 3Z TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE
A PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS DECK.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1224 PM EST WED FEB 17 2016
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Updated at 1113 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2016
Extended the Special Weather Statement for patches of dense fog into
the early afternoon as area obs and webcams still show reduced
visibility in spots. Best chances for low visibilities appear to be
along and ahead of a weakly defined surface boundary draped just
south of the Ohio River. This feature is only expected to very
slowly sink southward so low visibilities may persist longer. Latest
hi-res data does suggest visibilities improve as we head into the
afternoon as temps struggle to warm just a bit.
Updated at 909 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2016
Seeing a few spots of dense fog on area webcams and observations at
this hour. These are occurring mainly across central KY and should
persist until late morning, and backed up by the latest HRRR
visibility data. So, issued a Special Weather Statement until 11 AM
EST to highlight the concern.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 231 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2016
The first concern for the short term period is the patchy dense fog
across the region. The area of the densest fog continues to slowly
move southward this morning as higher level clouds move in from the
north. Coverage of the dense fog continues to be patchy, so will
cover the area of concern with Special Weather Statements for now
and monitor observations through the early morning.
Fog will dissipate by an hour or two after sunrise. Through the
remainder of the day a weak frontal boundary will move into the
region followed quickly by surface high pressure building in
tonight. Temperatures today will top out in the upper 30s to lower
40s under mostly cloudy skies. Models try to squeeze out some very
light precipitation today along the front, but think this would be
very light if anything does occur. With low confidence of any
measurable precip, will keep the forecast dry for now.
High pressure will cross the region tonight and move east of the
area through the day Thursday. Winds will shift to southerly,
beginning to usher in warmer air. We will have one more night of
below freezing temps before the warm up into the weekend really
begins. Highs on Thursday will top out in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 247 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2016
Much milder weather is expected from Friday through the weekend. The
pressure gradient will tighten across the region Thursday night into
Friday as a low pressure system develops across southern Canada.
Strong southerly winds will develop, pumping warmer and more humid
air into the lower Ohio Valley. This will also bring gusty winds on
Friday. Sustained winds will be 15-25 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph
(possibly higher at times). Highs will top out in the lower to mid
60s.
The cold front associated with the low pressure system will approach
and move into the region on Friday night, becoming quasi-stationary
across central KY. Some light rain will be possible on Friday night
with this front. However, it will not bring in colder air and temps
on Saturday will be comparable to Friday, if not a degree or two
warmer.
Another low pressure system will develop across the Midwest Saturday
night and track northeast. A cold front associated with this system
will move through Sunday evening/night. This system will also bring
a better chance for rain on Sunday. Rain chances will linger into
Monday/Monday night mainly across east central KY. We will see quite
a cool down going into the next work week. Highs on Monday look to
be in the upper 40s to lower 50s with highs Tuesday in the mid to
upper 40s.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1224 PM EST Wed Feb 17 2016
A low confidence aviation forecast as we deal with variable
cig/vsbys.
Mixing has increased surface dew point depressions in all
neighboring states around Kentucky, with a pool of more stubborn
moisture keeping vsbys and cigs low over the Commonwealth. Still,
conditions should slowly improve at Kentucky TAF sites this
afternoon. This has already occurred at SDF where it appears a
subtle surface boundary has passed through.
Tonight is another question mark, concerning redevelopment of any
low stratus or fog. The most model agreement keeps best chances for
sub-VFR conditions over the Lake Cumberland district in conjunction
with a dome of high pressure moving into the region. Will hit poor
flying conditions hardest tonight at LEX and BWG, going easier at
SDF.
All sites should go VFR on Thursday as drier air moves in and we get
some weak return surface flow behind the aforementioned high.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........BJS
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......13
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1224 PM EST WED FEB 17 2016
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Updated at 1113 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2016
Extended the Special Weather Statement for patches of dense fog into
the early afternoon as area obs and webcams still show reduced
visibility in spots. Best chances for low visibilities appear to be
along and ahead of a weakly defined surface boundary draped just
south of the Ohio River. This feature is only expected to very
slowly sink southward so low visibilities may persist longer. Latest
hi-res data does suggest visibilities improve as we head into the
afternoon as temps struggle to warm just a bit.
Updated at 909 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2016
Seeing a few spots of dense fog on area webcams and observations at
this hour. These are occurring mainly across central KY and should
persist until late morning, and backed up by the latest HRRR
visibility data. So, issued a Special Weather Statement until 11 AM
EST to highlight the concern.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 231 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2016
The first concern for the short term period is the patchy dense fog
across the region. The area of the densest fog continues to slowly
move southward this morning as higher level clouds move in from the
north. Coverage of the dense fog continues to be patchy, so will
cover the area of concern with Special Weather Statements for now
and monitor observations through the early morning.
Fog will dissipate by an hour or two after sunrise. Through the
remainder of the day a weak frontal boundary will move into the
region followed quickly by surface high pressure building in
tonight. Temperatures today will top out in the upper 30s to lower
40s under mostly cloudy skies. Models try to squeeze out some very
light precipitation today along the front, but think this would be
very light if anything does occur. With low confidence of any
measurable precip, will keep the forecast dry for now.
High pressure will cross the region tonight and move east of the
area through the day Thursday. Winds will shift to southerly,
beginning to usher in warmer air. We will have one more night of
below freezing temps before the warm up into the weekend really
begins. Highs on Thursday will top out in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 247 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2016
Much milder weather is expected from Friday through the weekend. The
pressure gradient will tighten across the region Thursday night into
Friday as a low pressure system develops across southern Canada.
Strong southerly winds will develop, pumping warmer and more humid
air into the lower Ohio Valley. This will also bring gusty winds on
Friday. Sustained winds will be 15-25 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph
(possibly higher at times). Highs will top out in the lower to mid
60s.
The cold front associated with the low pressure system will approach
and move into the region on Friday night, becoming quasi-stationary
across central KY. Some light rain will be possible on Friday night
with this front. However, it will not bring in colder air and temps
on Saturday will be comparable to Friday, if not a degree or two
warmer.
Another low pressure system will develop across the Midwest Saturday
night and track northeast. A cold front associated with this system
will move through Sunday evening/night. This system will also bring
a better chance for rain on Sunday. Rain chances will linger into
Monday/Monday night mainly across east central KY. We will see quite
a cool down going into the next work week. Highs on Monday look to
be in the upper 40s to lower 50s with highs Tuesday in the mid to
upper 40s.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1224 PM EST Wed Feb 17 2016
A low confidence aviation forecast as we deal with variable
cig/vsbys.
Mixing has increased surface dew point depressions in all
neighboring states around Kentucky, with a pool of more stubborn
moisture keeping vsbys and cigs low over the Commonwealth. Still,
conditions should slowly improve at Kentucky TAF sites this
afternoon. This has already occurred at SDF where it appears a
subtle surface boundary has passed through.
Tonight is another question mark, concerning redevelopment of any
low stratus or fog. The most model agreement keeps best chances for
sub-VFR conditions over the Lake Cumberland district in conjunction
with a dome of high pressure moving into the region. Will hit poor
flying conditions hardest tonight at LEX and BWG, going easier at
SDF.
All sites should go VFR on Thursday as drier air moves in and we get
some weak return surface flow behind the aforementioned high.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........BJS
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......13
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1224 PM EST WED FEB 17 2016
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Updated at 1113 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2016
Extended the Special Weather Statement for patches of dense fog into
the early afternoon as area obs and webcams still show reduced
visibility in spots. Best chances for low visibilities appear to be
along and ahead of a weakly defined surface boundary draped just
south of the Ohio River. This feature is only expected to very
slowly sink southward so low visibilities may persist longer. Latest
hi-res data does suggest visibilities improve as we head into the
afternoon as temps struggle to warm just a bit.
Updated at 909 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2016
Seeing a few spots of dense fog on area webcams and observations at
this hour. These are occurring mainly across central KY and should
persist until late morning, and backed up by the latest HRRR
visibility data. So, issued a Special Weather Statement until 11 AM
EST to highlight the concern.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 231 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2016
The first concern for the short term period is the patchy dense fog
across the region. The area of the densest fog continues to slowly
move southward this morning as higher level clouds move in from the
north. Coverage of the dense fog continues to be patchy, so will
cover the area of concern with Special Weather Statements for now
and monitor observations through the early morning.
Fog will dissipate by an hour or two after sunrise. Through the
remainder of the day a weak frontal boundary will move into the
region followed quickly by surface high pressure building in
tonight. Temperatures today will top out in the upper 30s to lower
40s under mostly cloudy skies. Models try to squeeze out some very
light precipitation today along the front, but think this would be
very light if anything does occur. With low confidence of any
measurable precip, will keep the forecast dry for now.
High pressure will cross the region tonight and move east of the
area through the day Thursday. Winds will shift to southerly,
beginning to usher in warmer air. We will have one more night of
below freezing temps before the warm up into the weekend really
begins. Highs on Thursday will top out in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 247 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2016
Much milder weather is expected from Friday through the weekend. The
pressure gradient will tighten across the region Thursday night into
Friday as a low pressure system develops across southern Canada.
Strong southerly winds will develop, pumping warmer and more humid
air into the lower Ohio Valley. This will also bring gusty winds on
Friday. Sustained winds will be 15-25 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph
(possibly higher at times). Highs will top out in the lower to mid
60s.
The cold front associated with the low pressure system will approach
and move into the region on Friday night, becoming quasi-stationary
across central KY. Some light rain will be possible on Friday night
with this front. However, it will not bring in colder air and temps
on Saturday will be comparable to Friday, if not a degree or two
warmer.
Another low pressure system will develop across the Midwest Saturday
night and track northeast. A cold front associated with this system
will move through Sunday evening/night. This system will also bring
a better chance for rain on Sunday. Rain chances will linger into
Monday/Monday night mainly across east central KY. We will see quite
a cool down going into the next work week. Highs on Monday look to
be in the upper 40s to lower 50s with highs Tuesday in the mid to
upper 40s.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1224 PM EST Wed Feb 17 2016
A low confidence aviation forecast as we deal with variable
cig/vsbys.
Mixing has increased surface dew point depressions in all
neighboring states around Kentucky, with a pool of more stubborn
moisture keeping vsbys and cigs low over the Commonwealth. Still,
conditions should slowly improve at Kentucky TAF sites this
afternoon. This has already occurred at SDF where it appears a
subtle surface boundary has passed through.
Tonight is another question mark, concerning redevelopment of any
low stratus or fog. The most model agreement keeps best chances for
sub-VFR conditions over the Lake Cumberland district in conjunction
with a dome of high pressure moving into the region. Will hit poor
flying conditions hardest tonight at LEX and BWG, going easier at
SDF.
All sites should go VFR on Thursday as drier air moves in and we get
some weak return surface flow behind the aforementioned high.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........BJS
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......13
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1115 AM EST WED FEB 17 2016
...Forecast Update...
Updated at 1113 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2016
Extended the Special Weather Statement for patches of dense fog into
the early afternoon as area obs and webcams still show reduced
visibility in spots. Best chances for low visibilities appear to be
along and ahead of a weakly defined surface boundary draped just
south of the Ohio River. This feature is only expected to very
slowly sink southward so low visibilities may persist longer. Latest
hi-res data does suggest visibilities improve as we head into the
afternoon as temps struggle to warm just a bit.
Updated at 909 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2016
Seeing a few spots of dense fog on area webcams and observations at
this hour. These are occurring mainly across central KY and should
persist until late morning, and backed up by the latest HRRR
visibility data. So, issued a Special Weather Statement until 11 AM
EST to highlight the concern.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 231 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2016
The first concern for the short term period is the patchy dense fog
across the region. The area of the densest fog continues to slowly
move southward this morning as higher level clouds move in from the
north. Coverage of the dense fog continues to be patchy, so will
cover the area of concern with Special Weather Statements for now
and monitor observations through the early morning.
Fog will dissipate by an hour or two after sunrise. Through the
remainder of the day a weak frontal boundary will move into the
region followed quickly by surface high pressure building in
tonight. Temperatures today will top out in the upper 30s to lower
40s under mostly cloudy skies. Models try to squeeze out some very
light precipitation today along the front, but think this would be
very light if anything does occur. With low confidence of any
measurable precip, will keep the forecast dry for now.
High pressure will cross the region tonight and move east of the
area through the day Thursday. Winds will shift to southerly,
beginning to usher in warmer air. We will have one more night of
below freezing temps before the warm up into the weekend really
begins. Highs on Thursday will top out in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 247 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2016
Much milder weather is expected from Friday through the weekend. The
pressure gradient will tighten across the region Thursday night into
Friday as a low pressure system develops across southern Canada.
Strong southerly winds will develop, pumping warmer and more humid
air into the lower Ohio Valley. This will also bring gusty winds on
Friday. Sustained winds will be 15-25 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph
(possibly higher at times). Highs will top out in the lower to mid
60s.
The cold front associated with the low pressure system will approach
and move into the region on Friday night, becoming quasi-stationary
across central KY. Some light rain will be possible on Friday night
with this front. However, it will not bring in colder air and temps
on Saturday will be comparable to Friday, if not a degree or two
warmer.
Another low pressure system will develop across the Midwest Saturday
night and track northeast. A cold front associated with this system
will move through Sunday evening/night. This system will also bring
a better chance for rain on Sunday. Rain chances will linger into
Monday/Monday night mainly across east central KY. We will see quite
a cool down going into the next work week. Highs on Monday look to
be in the upper 40s to lower 50s with highs Tuesday in the mid to
upper 40s.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 630 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2016
Poor flying conditions this hour, with lots of low-level moisture
making for low cigs and some patches of dense fog as well. The worst
of the fog still is roughly between KSDF and KBWG, but some remains
over KLEX. Expect these poor conditions to last most of the morning,
though SDF has the best chance to break out of it, with slightly
drier air working in from the north. GOES-R MVFR product also has a
gap of VFR conditions just over southern Indiana, but that gap is
not making any quick inroads toward SDF this hour. Have gone with
cigs up to low-end MVFR in the afternoon hours, assuming some
daytime heating allows for better mixing near the surface. For the
outlook period, guidance is calling for cigs to improve in the
evening. Not sold on that idea yet, cause if cigs improve we may
drop vsby`s back down anyway. Will keep MVFR most of the night for
now.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........BJS
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......RJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
910 AM EST WED FEB 17 2016
...Forecast Update...
Updated at 909 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2016
Seeing a few spots of dense fog on area webcams and observations
atthis hour. These are occurring mainly across central KY and
shouldpersist until late morning. Observed visibilities are also
backed upby the latest HRRR visibility data. So, issued a Special
WeatherStatement until 11 AM EST to highlight the concern.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 231 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2016
The first concern for the short term period is the patchy dense fog
across the region. The area of the densest fog continues to slowly
move southward this morning as higher level clouds move in from the
north. Coverage of the dense fog continues to be patchy, so will
cover the area of concern with Special Weather Statements for now
and monitor observations through the early morning.
Fog will dissipate by an hour or two after sunrise. Through the
remainder of the day a weak frontal boundary will move into the
region followed quickly by surface high pressure building in
tonight. Temperatures today will top out in the upper 30s to lower
40s under mostly cloudy skies. Models try to squeeze out some very
light precipitation today along the front, but think this would be
very light if anything does occur. With low confidence of any
measurable precip, will keep the forecast dry for now.
High pressure will cross the region tonight and move east of the
area through the day Thursday. Winds will shift to southerly,
beginning to usher in warmer air. We will have one more night of
below freezing temps before the warm up into the weekend really
begins. Highs on Thursday will top out in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 247 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2016
Much milder weather is expected from Friday through the weekend. The
pressure gradient will tighten across the region Thursday night into
Friday as a low pressure system develops across southern Canada.
Strong southerly winds will develop, pumping warmer and more humid
air into the lower Ohio Valley. This will also bring gusty winds on
Friday. Sustained winds will be 15-25 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph
(possibly higher at times). Highs will top out in the lower to mid
60s.
The cold front associated with the low pressure system will approach
and move into the region on Friday night, becoming quasi-stationary
across central KY. Some light rain will be possible on Friday night
with this front. However, it will not bring in colder air and temps
on Saturday will be comparable to Friday, if not a degree or two
warmer.
Another low pressure system will develop across the Midwest Saturday
night and track northeast. A cold front associated with this system
will move through Sunday evening/night. This system will also bring
a better chance for rain on Sunday. Rain chances will linger into
Monday/Monday night mainly across east central KY. We will see quite
a cool down going into the next work week. Highs on Monday look to
be in the upper 40s to lower 50s with highs Tuesday in the mid to
upper 40s.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 630 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2016
Poor flying conditions this hour, with lots of low-level moisture
making for low cigs and some patches of dense fog as well. The worst
of the fog still is roughly between KSDF and KBWG, but some remains
over KLEX. Expect these poor conditions to last most of the morning,
though SDF has the best chance to break out of it, with slightly
drier air working in from the north. GOES-R MVFR product also has a
gap of VFR conditions just over southern Indiana, but that gap is
not making any quick inroads toward SDF this hour. Have gone with
cigs up to low-end MVFR in the afternoon hours, assuming some
daytime heating allows for better mixing near the surface. For the
outlook period, guidance is calling for cigs to improve in the
evening. Not sold on that idea yet, cause if cigs improve we may
drop vsby`s back down anyway. Will keep MVFR most of the night for
now.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........BJS
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
925 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
DECIDED TO EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY TO ALL COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST
AREA FOR OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. OBSERVATIONS OUT WEST ARE
SOLIDLY INTO THE WIND ADVISORY CATEGORY AND HAVE HIT HIGH WIND
WARNING NUMBERS IN PARTS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST
COLORADO. NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO GET THAT STRONG RIGHT NOW. 02Z
HIGH RESOLUTION RAP MODEL BRINGS A 3 HOUR PRESSURE CHANGE OF UP TO
9 MB INTO ERN NE AND SWRN IA 09Z TO 13Z...WITH HIGHEST BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS 40 TO 50 KNOTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY NOT LAST VERY
LONG AT ANY GIVEN POINT. WINDS MAY EVEN DECOUPLE CONSIDERABLY
AROUND SUNRISE BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN MID TO LATE MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
THE PRIMARY SHORT-TERM FORECAST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE INTERIOR WEST. THE SRN EXTENSION OF THIS SYSTEM
WHICH IS MOVING THROUGH NV/UT HAS EXHIBITED SPORADIC LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK
WHICH WILL ACCELERATE NEWD INTO THE MID-MO VALLEY BY 12Z/FRI. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NOW DEEPENING OVER SERN MT WILL DEVELOP EWD
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT SURGES
THROUGH THE MID-MO VALLEY BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. WHILE MOISTURE
WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...OUR CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
DUE TO THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...A SUBSTANTIAL
ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT WILL EXIST AT THE SURFACE. THE PRESSURE-RISE
COMPONENT WILL ENCOURAGE THE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF STRONG WINDS
IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE 50-60+ KT WINDS DESCENDING TO AS LOW AS .5 KM AGL WITH
THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY BEING HOW THE STABILITY OF THE NEAR-
SURFACE LAYER --ARISING FROM THE UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY--
AFFECTS THE TRANSLATION OF THESE WINDS TO THE GROUND. MODEL
FORECASTS INDICATE A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS TO 20-25
KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER NERN NEB. THE
INCORPORATION OF CURRENT SNOW COVER INTO THE MODEL INITIALIZATION
AND THE NUMERIC HANDLING OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION CALLS INTO
QUESTION THESE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS. NOT THAT THEY ARE WRONG...ITS
JUST THAT THERE ARE A NUMBER OF FACTORS AT PLAY THAT WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW THIS EVENT UNFOLDS. FOR NOW...WE WILL
INCLUDE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NRN PORTION OF OUR AREA FROM
19/06Z-19/18Z WHERE THE HIGHEST PROBABLY OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS
WILL EXIST.
AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW (FRI)...AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF
COLD ADVECTION...DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SHOULD
ALLOW VALUES TO RISE INTO THE 60S. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY
RELAXES.
ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH
SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR SIMILAR...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY COOLER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES. BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY WHILE TRANSLATING FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE MIDWEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MID-MO VALLEY...USHERING IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. THE PRIMARY BELT OF FORCING FOR
ASCENT/DCVA RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING
THE DAY...HOWEVER ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED OWING TO
THE PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT EAST OF THE ROCKIES AT THE ONSET OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION IN RESPONSE TO THE
PROGRESSION OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL WIND MAXIMA FROM THE PACIFIC NW
TO THE GULF COAST IN THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. WE WILL RESIDE
TO THE WEST OF A COLDER CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WHICH WILL PLUNGE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO OH VALLEY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
INTENSIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. A SMALL CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES ON
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN SUCH AN
OCCURRENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
WINDS TONIGHT...INCLUDING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...WILL PROVIDE THE
MAIN AVIATION CHALLENGES. THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT...WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY. STRONG WINDS WILL EXIST ALOFT
FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST/NORTHWEST AND INCREASE. BUT
EXACTLY HOW STRONG WINDS WILL BE IS UNCERTAIN. WINDS ALOFT SHOULD
BE 50 TO 60 KNOTS OR MORE...BUT WITH FRONT COMING THROUGH AT
NIGHT...THIS MAKES IT TOUGH TO DETERMINE HOW DEEP MIXING WILL BE.
WILL MENTION SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 KNOTS FOR NOW BUT MAY TRY
TO FINE TUNE THIS MORE LATER THIS EVENING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR NEZ045-052-053-
067-068-090>093.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
030>034-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-088-089.
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-
069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...MEAD
LONG TERM...MEAD
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
532 AM CST WED FEB 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST WED FEB 17 2016
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL
DEEPEN FROM 1010 MB AT 09Z THIS MORNING TO 998 MB BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTN INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH. THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES.
H850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 7C TO 14C BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THE
WARMEST THREE BLENDED GUIDANCE DATA SETS PLUS BIAS CORRECTION
SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE RAP
MODEL BUT STILL COOL BY A DEGREE OR TWO. THE MET GUIDANCE WAS TOO
COOL FOR THIS FORECAST LEAVING THE EKD...THE MAV AND ECS AS DRIVERS
FOR HIGHS TODAY.
H850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 12C TO 15C TONIGHT AS THE THERMAL RIDGE
STRENGTHENS. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH LOWS IN THE
30S TO AROUND 40. A POCKET OF FREEZING TEMPS DEVELOP IN THE PLATTE
VALLEY WHERE WINDS DECOUPLE TOWARD MORNING. THIS FORECAST USES A
BLEND OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS PLUS BIAS CORRECTION AND PRODUCES
A FORECAST ABOUT 1 DEGREE WARMER THAN A BLEND OF GUIDANCE PLUS BIAS
CORRECTION.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST WED FEB 17 2016
MID RANGE...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE
TEMPERATURES AND WIND. VERY STRONG WAA AHEAD OF A SURFACE FRONT...
1.5 PVU ANOMALY...AND 130+KT 250HPA JET THURSDAY. ALL MODELS SHOW
850HPA TEMPS RISING FROM NEAR 8C AT 00Z THU TO NEAR 18C AT 18Z. THE
ECM AND GFS ARE EVEN SHOWING 20C NEAR KIML. GOOD DOWNSLOPE SETUP
WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS THU AFTERNOON. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP MIXING WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS TO 600HPA...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN HALF OF
FORECAST AREA. WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY FAIR SKIES...NOT EXPECTING MUCH
HINDERING OF THE MIXING. ADJUSTED DEW POINTS DOWN AND SFC WINDS UP
AS MODELS OFTEN UNDERESTIMATE STRONG DOWNSLOPE EVENTS. BUMPED UP MAX
TEMPS A DEGREE...WHICH STILL UNDERCUTS MAV GUIDANCE BY 5F BUT
TIES/BREAKS DAILY RECORDS AT KIML AND KVTN AND PUTS WITHIN 2 DEGREES
AT KLBF. REMOVED SCHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY AS THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE APPEARS TO STAY IN SDAK. NAM AND GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW WHAT WILL LIKELY BE TOO MUCH DRY AIR IN THE LOW AND
MID LEVELS AT MERRIMAN...KVTN...AND KONL. IF ANY PRECIP DOES
OCCUR...IT WOULD FALL AS VERY LIGHT RAIN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OVERNIGHT. DID NOT TWEAK MIN TEMPS MUCH AS THE TIMING OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS...GENERALLY 6-12Z...WOULD PREVENT BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLING. ECM...NAM...AND GFS SHOW 850HPA WINDS OF 50-60
KTS...WHICH COULD EASILY TRANSLATE TO GUSTS OF AT LEAST 40-45 KTS AT
THE SFC. HELD OFF ON ANY WIND HEADLINES AS THE EVENT IS 48 HOURS
AWAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND...AND THE
WINDOW OF POSSIBLY CRITERIA SPEEDS WOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT.
FRIDAY...ALMOST A REPEAT SCENARIO WITH FAIR CONDITIONS AND
DOWNSLOPING WINDS...SO RAISED MAX TEMPS A DEGREE. MODELS CONSISTENT
WITH 850HPA TEMPS 6-8C COOLER THUS HIGHS IN THE 60S INSTEAD OF 70S.
LONG RANGE...SATURDAY TO TUESDAY...ZONAL FLOW AT 500HPA SLOWLY
TRANSITIONS TO NORTHWEST FLOW AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD SATURDAY BUT COOL
SLIGHTLY SUNDAY BEHIND A SHORTWAVE AND MONDAY WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM.
850HPA TEMPS AROUND 0C DURING THE DAY...MAKING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S. QUICK SHOT OF MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
TERMS OF ACCUMULATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST WED FEB 17 2016
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ONE CAVEAT. THE
IFR/LIFR CIGS ACROSS SD/NERN NEB COULD BACK INTO BOYD AND HOLT
COUNTIES TONIGHT FOR A FEW HOURS AS A RESULT OF DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS MT. THE RAP SUGGESTS THIS IS POSSIBLE AND LATER
FORECASTS WILL REVEAL THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS AT KVTN.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
656 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST...WHICH REMAINS ON TRACK.
MAINLY BLENDED TO CURRENT OBS AND ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT
FOR LESS CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL. LIGHTER SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE CWA WITH SURFACE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT RETURNS OVER WESTERN
ND...BUT NO REPORTS OF PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
A DYNAMIC AND SPRING-LIKE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
DENSE FOG AHEAD OF IT AND STRONG WINDS IN ITS WAKE FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS OF 21 UTC...A STRONG SURFACE LOW IS DEEPENING IN SOUTHEASTERN
MT WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE NEAR 986 MB SOUTHEAST OF BILLINGS. THE
12 UTC GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THIS LOW WILL MOVE EAST
ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW...HIGH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT ON LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S F BENEATH A STOUT INVERSION ALOFT THANKS
TO ANOMALOUS LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WARMTH IS CONTRIBUTING TO A VERY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. VISIBILITIES FROM
NEAR NEW SALEM NORTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ND AS
OF MID AFTERNOON ARE STILL BELOW 1/2SM IN MANY AREAS...AND WITH
THE FAVORABLE SETUP AND CONSISTENT HRRR AND ESRL-HRRR MODEL RUNS
SHOWING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG THIS EVENING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST ND WE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. THE ADVISORY GOES THROUGH 06 UTC...EXCEPT OVER NORTH
CENTRAL ND WHERE WE RAN IT UNTIL 12 UTC. WE ACTUALLY EXPECT FOG
TO LIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST AND THE COLD
FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT FOLLOWS SUITE AND
INCREASES BOUNDARY LAYER SUBSIDENCE.
WE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE TYPE OR AREAL EXTENT OF WIND HEADLINES
WITH THIS ISSUANCE. HOWEVER...WE DID ADJUST THE START TIMES SUCH
THAT THE WIND ADVISORY AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS OVER SOUTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL ND START AT 03 UTC TONIGHT...AND THE WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL ND STARTS BETWEEN 06 AND 08 UTC.
THAT MOVE WAS BASED ON INITIAL PRESSURE RISES THAT WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE LOW EASTWARD TONIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE AN EXPANSION OF THE
HIGH WIND WARNING A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND EAST MAY BE NEEDED IF
ISALLOBARIC FORCING OVERCOMES NOCTURNAL STABILIZING EFFECTS AS
RECENT RAP ITERATIONS HAVE SHOWN 8-10 MB/3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS ALL OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL ND TONIGHT. WINDS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE STRONG AREA-WIDE DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.
THE 12 UTC GFS WAS A BIT STRONGER WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS THAN
THE 12 UTC NAM AND SUGGESTS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE HIGH WIND
WARNING AGAIN MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND TO
THE EAST...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DO THAT YET AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS EVEN FROM THE GFS SUGGEST THE LOW LEVELS MAY
NOT BE COMPLETELY DRY ADIABATIC.
WE DO EXPECT A BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
WITH THE STRONG SHORTWAVE...BUT THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST IT WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN IN MOST AREAS. WE ARE STILL CARRYING SOME
LOW-END CHANCES OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN NORTH CENTRAL ND...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN ANY IMPACTS FROM THAT IS LOW GIVEN A RATHER NARROW
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ROADS TO BE CLOSE TO
OR ABOVE 32 F IN MANY AREAS.
FINALLY...THE STRONG WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL
YIELD SOME CONCERNS FOR FIRE WEATHER IN SOUTHWEST ND...AS NOTED
IN THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION TYPES IS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING...BUT SHOULD TURN TO ALL SNOW BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN
AN INCH EXPECTED.
AFTER SUNDAY COOLER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL TAKE OVER.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED
AT 0656 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT BRINGING
SHOWERS TO MOST AREAS AND VERY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
SYSTEM. MOST LOCATIONS CURRENTLY ARE IN LIFR/IFR CATEGORIES WITH
EXCEPTION OF KDIK...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ALSO DROP TO LIFR THIS
EVENING. AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR
AT ALL SITES WITH GUSTY NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY GUST FROM 30-45 KNOTS AT TIMES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING FROM 50 TO 60 MPH FRIDAY
WILL POSE A CONCERN FOR WIND-DRIVEN FIRES...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ND WHERE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES MAY REACH 30 PERCENT.
IF PRECIPITATION IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND IS LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH TONIGHT AND THE WFAS...NFDRS FIRE DANGER RATING ENDS UP
IN THE HIGH OR GREATER CATEGORY...A RED FLAG WARNING COULD BE
NEEDED WITH THE MORNING FORECAST RELEASE. THE AREA OF PRIMARY
CONCERN IS ACROSS SLOPE...BOWMAN...AND ADAMS COUNTIES.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR
NDZ001-002-009-010-019-020-034-035-042.
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST
/5 PM MST/ FRIDAY FOR NDZ019-020-034-035-042-045-046.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ FRIDAY FOR NDZ017-018-
031>033-041.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-
021>023.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ003>005-
010>013-021>023-025.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ036-037-047-
048-050-051.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR NDZ040-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...ZH
FIRE WEATHER...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
329 PM CST WED FEB 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST WED FEB 17 2016
PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF A MILD THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LOWER ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE
VERY FAVORABLE FOR STRATUS MAINTENANCE AND DEVELOPMENT THANKS TO A
STOUT AND STRENGTHENING INVERSION ALOFT WITH MILD...SOUTHERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW THAT WILL ACCESS DEWPOINTS WHICH AVERAGE 30 F UPSTREAM
AS OF MID AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST
GIVEN EXPECTED BUILD-DOWN OF THE STRATUS...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE NEAR-GROUND LAYER MAY BE TOO TURBULENT FOR DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT OWING TO SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 15 KT WITHIN 1000 FT OF
THE SURFACE. THE 15 TO 19 UTC HRRR AND ESRL-HRRR ITERATIONS ON THE
OTHER HAND SIMULATE SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT...SO WE WILL WATCH
THIS SCENARIO CLOSELY EVEN THOUGH WE BELIEVE THE PROBABILITY OF
ANYTHING MORE THAN TRANSIENT SUB-3/4SM VISIBILITIES IS RATHER LOW.
WE CHOSE TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE
FORECAST OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL ND TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN
RESPECT TO THE DEEPENING MOIST LAYER BENEATH THE INVERSION SEEN ON
MODEL-DERIVED FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE 12 UTC GFS DEEPENS THE MOIST
LAYER SUFFICIENTLY TO GENERATE LIGHT QPF IN ITS SIMULATION ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL ND BETWEEN 06 AND 12 UTC...WHICH IS
SUGGESTIVE OF A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF BONAFIDE LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN NEAR THE PEAK OF THE WARM-ADVECTIVE REGIME. HOWEVER...THAT IS
AN OUTLIER SOLUTION...AND FORECAST OMEGA FIELDS FROM BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM SUGGEST VERTICAL MOTION IN THE STRATUS LAYER MAY BE WEAK.
WE THUS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE RISK
EVEN THOUGH IT WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO STILL INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A VERY MILD AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE IN
ADVANCE OF A STRONG 500-MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LOW CLOUDS MAY HOLD BACK HEATING WHERE
THEY REMAIN THICK ENOUGH THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES
AT 850 MB OF +13 TO +15 C IN SOUTHWEST ND...HIGHS WILL LIKELY HIT
60 F IN PLACES LIKE BOWMAN...WITH WIDESPREAD 40S AND 50S F SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST WED FEB 17 2016
THE LONG TERM APPEARS ACTIVE WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE MAGIC FREEZING THRESHOLD AND
THEREFORE A MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW APPEARS POSSIBLE.
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW APPEAR THE MORE FAVORABLE
PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THE MORNING AND EVENING
HOURS OF FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...CHANGING OVER TO MAINLY
RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOONS. ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ARE
EXPECTED ANY GIVEN DAY...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
A CLIPPER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY. THIS
CLIPPER MAY BRING SOME HIGH WINDS TO THE REGION. MIXING WEST
WINDS...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE PRESSURE RISES COULD
PRODUCE WINDS AROUND 50 MPH. IF TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
PRESENCE OF THESE FEATURES THEN A WIND ADVISORY APPEARS
LIKELY...WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING POSSIBLE. DECIDED TO WITHHOLD
ISSUING A HIGH WIND WATCH TODAY AS THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE PRESSURE RISES AND MIXING DOWN OF
MID-LEVEL WINDS AND HIGHER WINDS AREN`T EXPECTED FOR ANOTHER 48
HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST WED FEB 17 2016
LOW STRATUS WITH IFR AND EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
CEILINGS LIFTED TO THE MVFR/VFR RANGE IN PARTS OF WESTERN ND THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THEY WILL FALL BACK INTO LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES
TONIGHT AS STRATUS REDEVELOPS.BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...CEILINGS
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT INTO MVFR/VFR CATEGORIES...EXCEPT AT KMOT. THERE
WILL BE SOME RISK FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...ZH/CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
102 PM CST WED FEB 17 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST WED FEB 17 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN BLENDING RECENT
OBSERVATIONS INTO HOURLY FORECAST FIELDS. FOG HAS LIFTED...BUT THE
STRATUS LAYER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY IN MOST AREAS THANKS TO
THE MOIST LAYER BEING TRAPPED UNDER A STRENGTHENING INVERSION.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 AM CST WED FEB 17 2016
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE. DID EXTEND
PATCHY FOG OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL 18
UTC...BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST HRRR ITERATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM CST WED FEB 17 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES EARLY THIS MORNING. BISMARCK 12 UTC
SOUNDING INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. RADAR SHOWS
SOME VERY LIGHT REFLECTIVITIES OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALTHOUGH
NOTHING REPORTED AS OF YET AND NO GROUND TRUTH...WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIS MORNING. AREAS
OF FOG CONTINUE IN THE WEST AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL A FEW
LOCALES DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE AND HAVE EXTENDED THE SPS FOR AREAS
OF DENSE FOG THROUGH 14 UTC.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST WED FEB 17 2016
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE CONTINUED MOIST LOW LEVEL
REGIME THAT IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER THE STATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LINGERING LIGHT SNOW AND POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
CURRENTLY...COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE BORDER
OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA/MANITOBA/ONTARIO WITH A SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO SASKATCHEWAN AND WESTERN MANITOBA. MEANWHILE
A MILD PACIFIC HIGH WAS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES OVER WESTERN
MONTANA/WYOMING/COLORADO. BETWEEN THE TWO HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS WAS
A LARGE AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A WESTERN RIDGE WAS OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE THE AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND PERHAPS SOME
ISOLATED PATCHES OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WERE DIMINISHING OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF AREAS
OF FOG ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING.
TODAY AND TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING
EASTWARD...AND A DRY WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BEGIN
MOVING OVER THE COOL AND MOIST SURFACE AIRMASS. THE INITIAL WESTERLY
FLOW OF DRY AIR SHOULD BEGIN IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER
DAYBREAK THIS MORNING AND PUSH INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY
AFTERNOON...AND REACH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. THE DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT AND STRENGTHENS
WITH INCREASED H850 WINDS. HOWEVER...THE MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW CONTINUES TODAY AND TONIGHT. THUS THE DEEP COOL AND MOIST LAYER
OVER THE STATE THIS MORNING BEGINS TO ERODE FROM MID LEVELS DOWN
TOWARDS THE SURFACE WITH TIME. THERE IS A HINT THAT SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL FINALLY ERODE FROM FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON (HENCE THE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 50S FAR SOUTHWEST)...BUT
THE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW DOMINATES AND THE MODELS ARE
FORECASTING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATUS TO EXPAND BACK WESTWARD
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.
THE RESULT WILL BE LOW CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE STATE TODAY...WITH A
BREAK IN THE LOW CLOUDS SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LOW CLOUDS
AND STRATUS DOMINATING AGAIN TONIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE A LARGE
CONTRAST IN HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST
BUT 30S OVER THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
STRATUS CLOUDS.
THE STRONG WARMING AND DRYING ALOFT TONIGHT COMBINED WITH A
REINFORCED MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL RESULT IN A
SUPERCOOLED SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER THAT WOULD SUPPORT DRIZZLE.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THUS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST WED FEB 17 2016
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND TYPES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN WINDS ON
FRIDAY.
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
RESULT IN A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION AND PERIODIC
WINDY PERIODS.
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. DOWNSTREAM...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS PUSHING FROM EASTERN MONTANA
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. FARTHER EAST OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW IS KEEPING ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR
THE SURFACE WITH WARM ADVECTION AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT.
WILL KEEP A MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH MID-MORNING IN THE
SOUTH CENTRAL AND THROUGH THE MORNING NORTH CENTRAL AS TEMPERATURES
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING HERE. ALSO KEPT A MENTION OF FOG THROUGH MID
MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
STRONG WARM ADVECTION PUSHES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE
DAY AND SHOULD CLEAR THE LOW CLOUDS AT LEAST OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE STATE...THUS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S ARE
EXPECTED...WITH A STRONG GRADIENT TO MID 30S OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA.
WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS.
MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT IN RESULTANT QPF PATTERN.
THE GFS AND GEM ARE LIGHTER WITH THE QPF MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND KEEP HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE NAM/ECMWF BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF
QPF ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALTHOUGH THE NAM GETS
TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE QPF. FOR NOW A BLEND SEEMS REASONABLE WITH A
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF BUT TONED DOWN A LITTLE.
THIS WOULD BRING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEST DURING
THE EVENING AND SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WE STILL HAVE A MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE LOOKING AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. BUT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
ALSO SUGGEST THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE ENOUGH WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT THAT MOST PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AS RAIN.
WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR AND CERTAINLY NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
PULL MENTION OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT FOR POINTS WEST OF
HERE IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY RAIN. WE DID UTILIZE A BLEND OF RAW MODEL
DATA FOR FORECAST LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AS SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WAS TOO
COLD.
ONCE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS DEVELOP. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS THROUGH THE DAY REMAIN FROM
35 TO 45 KNOTS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. THUS IF CONDITIONS HOLD
WOULD EXPECT WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGH WIND WARNING POSSIBLY IN THE SOUTHWEST.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY AND THE ACTUAL CLIPPER
SWEEPING ACROSS SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLATED FOR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS SOUTH. WINDS INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW...WEST TO NORTHWEST
WIND OF 20 TO 30 MPH. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH MONDAY
BRINGING SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST WED FEB 17 2016
LINGERING FOG IN THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER LOW STRATUS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY AT MOST SITES...CREATING IFR AND EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE FAR WEST AROUND
KISN/KDIK...WHERE CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR KMOT...INTO MVFR/VFR CATEGORIES. THERE WILL
BE SOME RISK FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...ZH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
950 AM CST WED FEB 17 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM CST WED FEB 17 2016
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE. DID EXTEND
PATCHY FOG OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL 18
UTC...BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST HRRR ITERATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM CST WED FEB 17 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES EARLY THIS MORNING. BISMARCK 12 UTC
SOUNDING INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. RADAR SHOWS
SOME VERY LIGHT REFLECTIVITIES OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALTHOUGH
NOTHING REPORTED AS OF YET AND NO GROUND TRUTH...WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIS MORNING. AREAS
OF FOG CONTINUE IN THE WEST AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL A FEW
LOCALES DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE AND HAVE EXTENDED THE SPS FOR AREAS
OF DENSE FOG THROUGH 14 UTC.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST WED FEB 17 2016
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE CONTINUED MOIST LOW LEVEL
REGIME THAT IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER THE STATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LINGERING LIGHT SNOW AND POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
CURRENTLY...COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE BORDER
OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA/MANITOBA/ONTARIO WITH A SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO SASKATCHEWAN AND WESTERN MANITOBA. MEANWHILE
A MILD PACIFIC HIGH WAS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES OVER WESTERN
MONTANA/WYOMING/COLORADO. BETWEEN THE TWO HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS WAS
A LARGE AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A WESTERN RIDGE WAS OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE THE AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND PERHAPS SOME
ISOLATED PATCHES OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WERE DIMINISHING OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF AREAS
OF FOG ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING.
TODAY AND TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING
EASTWARD...AND A DRY WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BEGIN
MOVING OVER THE COOL AND MOIST SURFACE AIRMASS. THE INITIAL WESTERLY
FLOW OF DRY AIR SHOULD BEGIN IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER
DAYBREAK THIS MORNING AND PUSH INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY
AFTERNOON...AND REACH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. THE DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT AND STRENGTHENS
WITH INCREASED H850 WINDS. HOWEVER...THE MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW CONTINUES TODAY AND TONIGHT. THUS THE DEEP COOL AND MOIST LAYER
OVER THE STATE THIS MORNING BEGINS TO ERODE FROM MID LEVELS DOWN
TOWARDS THE SURFACE WITH TIME. THERE IS A HINT THAT SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL FINALLY ERODE FROM FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON (HENCE THE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 50S FAR SOUTHWEST)...BUT
THE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW DOMINATES AND THE MODELS ARE
FORECASTING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATUS TO EXPAND BACK WESTWARD
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.
THE RESULT WILL BE LOW CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE STATE TODAY...WITH A
BREAK IN THE LOW CLOUDS SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LOW CLOUDS
AND STRATUS DOMINATING AGAIN TONIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE A LARGE
CONTRAST IN HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST
BUT 30S OVER THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
STRATUS CLOUDS.
THE STRONG WARMING AND DRYING ALOFT TONIGHT COMBINED WITH A
REINFORCED MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL RESULT IN A
SUPERCOOLED SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER THAT WOULD SUPPORT DRIZZLE.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THUS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST WED FEB 17 2016
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND TYPES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN WINDS ON
FRIDAY.
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
RESULT IN A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION AND PERIODIC
WINDY PERIODS.
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. DOWNSTREAM...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS PUSHING FROM EASTERN MONTANA
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. FARTHER EAST OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW IS KEEPING ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR
THE SURFACE WITH WARM ADVECTION AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT.
WILL KEEP A MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH MID-MORNING IN THE
SOUTH CENTRAL AND THROUGH THE MORNING NORTH CENTRAL AS TEMPERATURES
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING HERE. ALSO KEPT A MENTION OF FOG THROUGH MID
MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
STRONG WARM ADVECTION PUSHES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE
DAY AND SHOULD CLEAR THE LOW CLOUDS AT LEAST OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE STATE...THUS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S ARE
EXPECTED...WITH A STRONG GRADIENT TO MID 30S OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA.
WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS.
MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT IN RESULTANT QPF PATTERN.
THE GFS AND GEM ARE LIGHTER WITH THE QPF MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND KEEP HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE NAM/ECMWF BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF
QPF ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALTHOUGH THE NAM GETS
TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE QPF. FOR NOW A BLEND SEEMS REASONABLE WITH A
PRECIPITATION PATTERN SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF BUT TONED DOWN A LITTLE.
THIS WOULD BRING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEST DURING
THE EVENING AND SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WE STILL HAVE A MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE LOOKING AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. BUT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
ALSO SUGGEST THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE ENOUGH WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT THAT MOST PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AS RAIN.
WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR AND CERTAINLY NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
PULL MENTION OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT FOR POINTS WEST OF
HERE IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY RAIN. WE DID UTILIZE A BLEND OF RAW MODEL
DATA FOR FORECAST LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AS SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WAS TOO
COLD.
ONCE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS DEVELOP. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS THROUGH THE DAY REMAIN FROM
35 TO 45 KNOTS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. THUS IF CONDITIONS HOLD
WOULD EXPECT WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGH WIND WARNING POSSIBLY IN THE SOUTHWEST.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY AND THE ACTUAL CLIPPER
SWEEPING ACROSS SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLATED FOR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS SOUTH. WINDS INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW...WEST TO NORTHWEST
WIND OF 20 TO 30 MPH. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH MONDAY
BRINGING SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CST WED FEB 17 2016
AT 6 AM CST...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA...THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA...AND INTO
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...SEPARATING MILD AIR TO THE WEST FROM COOLER
AIR EAST. MAINLY IFR CIGS THIS MORNING KISN/KMOT/KDIK/KBIS
WITH IFR TO MVFR VSBYS AT TIMES IN FOG. MVFR AT KJMS. CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR AROUND 18Z AT KDIK/KISN AND IMPROVING TO
MVFR AT KBIS/KMOT THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS DETERIORATE AFT 00Z TO
MVFR/IFR WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL STRATUS. WEST WIND FLOW ABOVE/OVER
THE COLD MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
AND NOT MENTIONED IN TAFS AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1219 AM CST WED FEB 17 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CST WED FEB 17 2016
WEB CAMS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUED TO SHOW AREAS OF FOG IN
SOUTHWEST AND PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE ADDED
MENTION OF FOG INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS WELL AS THE EARLIER
UPDATE ADDING THE MENTION IN THE SOUTHWEST. REGIONAL RADARS STILL
INDICATING PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. MOST WEB CAMS AND OBS INDICATING LIGHT SNOW...HOWEVER NOTED
THE UNKNOWN PRECIP AT HAZEN...AND STILL THINKING THAT FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION AS
IT CONTINUES MOVING EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD SLOWLY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
STILL INDICATE DRYING ALOFT ALLOWING SUPERCOOLED LOWER LEVELS AND
POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. DO NOT OBSERVE A TREND IN RADAR
LOOPS THAT WOULD INDICATE A DOWNTREND OF AREA OF PRECIPITATION...AND
THINKING IT MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THUS
KEPT CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTH CENTRAL AREA FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 920 PM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
WEB CAMS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORMED
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST. WILL ADD FOG TONIGHT.
THE BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL WHILE SLOWLY SHRINKING.
JUST NEED TO REFINE POPS A BIT FOR THIS. TRIMMED BACK THE AREA OF
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. DO NOT SEE MUCH AT THIS TIME BUT STILL
POSSIBLE LATER AS THE MID/HIGH LEVELS DRY OUT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 603 PM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
FORECAST TRENDING WELL SO FAR. MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW CHANGING OVER
TO SNOW WEST AND MAINLY SNOW CENTRAL. GETTING A FAIRLY NARROW
AND FOCUSED BAND OF PRECIPITATION ON RADAR THAT ALIGNS WELL WITH
THE H850-H700 FRONTOGENESIS. WILL BE WATCHING FOR THE FORECAST
FREEZING DRIZZLE TO SHOW UP LATE THIS EVENING AFTER THE RAIN/SNOW
MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
THE HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
TONIGHT.
WE ARE CARRYING UP TO AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST FROM
NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH TONIGHT ROUGHLY
ALONG A LINE FROM WILLISTON TO BISMARCK AND ASHLEY. THAT IS BASED
ON A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC GLOBAL MODEL QPF GUIDANCE AND THE TIME-
LAGGED HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL SUITE /INCLUDING THE RAP AND HRRR/.
RADAR ECHOES ARE INTENSIFYING SOUTHWEST OF THAT LINE AS OF 2145
UTC AS MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES...AND RECENT RAP OUTPUT
SUGGESTS THE FRONTOGENESIS BASED IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER WILL BE
MAXIMIZED OVER CENTRAL ND AROUND 01 UTC. GIVEN A QUICK BURST OF
MODERATE TO STRONG QG-FORCING TIED TO THE EXIT REGION OF A 110 KT
300-MB JET STREAK...THE AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY BE
SUFFICIENTLY DEEP FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF NOTEWORTHY PRECIPITATION
RATES. HOWEVER...RUN-TOTAL QPF FROM THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP
AND HRRR HAS BEEN TRENDING A BIT LOWER THAN ITS EARLIER FLAVORS
AND THE RESIDENCE TIME OF THE FORCING WILL BE SHORT IN ANY ONE
PLACE...WHICH IS WHY WE HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE OVERALL SNOW EVENT.
RELATIVELY WARM LOW- AND MID-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WILL LIKELY
PREVENT EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH TOO...LIMITING THE SNOW-TO-LIQUID
RATIOS TO AROUND 11 TO 1. EVEN SO...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A
PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER
TRENDS IN CASE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SNOWFALL FORECAST ARE NEEDED.
NOTE THAT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW OR OUTRIGHT RAIN IN SOUTHWEST ND THROUGH THIS EVENING. THAT
IDEA IS BEING CARRIED IN THE FORECAST...BUT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
HAVE SUGGESTED WET BULB COOLING HAS BEEN FAVORING SNOW THUS FAR.
FINALLY...WE ARE STILL ADVERTISING A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE TONIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION...AND ALL
THE WAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN CENTRAL ND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW DRYING ALOFT AND A LINGERING STRATUS LAYER THAT IS MAINLY
WARMER THAN -10 C...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL SUPERCOOLED DROPS AND
THUS FREEZING DRIZZLE.
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE WEATHER WILL HAVE QUIETED DOWN WITH
THE AREA BETWEEN WAVES. STRATUS /LOW CLOUDS/ COULD HINDER WARMING
IF IT IS THICK ENOUGH...BUT THE 12 UTC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THAT
WE USED TO BUILD THE FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S F
IN JAMESTOWN TO THE LOWER 50S F IN BOWMAN.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW WITH A MEAN UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH
IN THE EAST WILL RESULT IN SERIES OF SYSTEMS WITH MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND PERIODS OF WINDY CONDITIONS.
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BOTH THE NAM/GFS ARE
ADVERTISING AN H85 COLD POCKET TO WORK ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
AGREE THAT ENOUGH OMEGA WITHIN THE SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLET REGIME
COULD PRODUCE A LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL BEGINNING 09Z-12Z
THURSDAY NOON THURSDAY. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN INTO THE GRIDS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM 09Z-
18Z THURSDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH
00Z FRIDAY BEFORE A DOUBLE AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN ALL POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM BASED UPON LOCATION AND
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE. THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ELEMENT WILL BE
WIND LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS
ARE ADVERTISED FROM MID MORNING FRIDAY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON FRIDAY
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF BETWEEN 40KT AND 45KT ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST...AND 30KT TO 35KT MOST ELSEWHERE. POTENTIAL HIGH WIND
WARNING SOUTHWEST WITH A SOLID WIND ADVISORY MOST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THIS TIME. THE TIME WINDOW OVERALL IS
BRIEF BUT WOULD STILL BE WORTHY OF THE ABOVE IF DATA REMAINS
CONSISTENT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY AND THE ACTUAL CLIPPER
SWEEPING ACROSS SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLATED FOR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS SOUTH. WINDS INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW...WEST TO
NORTHWEST WIND OF 20 TO 30 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST
TO SHIFT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND FAVOR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
MILD HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH UPPER 50S SOUTHWEST
TO MID 40S CENTRAL AND MID 30S TURTLE MOUNTAINS. MILD AIR CONTINUES
INTO FRIDAY WITH GOOD MIXING ALOFT AND WIDESPREAD/MORE UNIFORM HIGHS
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST. A GRADUAL COOL DOWN SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CST WED FEB 17 2016
AT MIDNIGHT CST...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA...THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA...AND INTO
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...SEPARATING MILD AIR TO THE WEST FROM COOLER
AIR EAST. WEST WIND FLOW ABOVE/OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW AND POSSIBLY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. MAINLY IFR THIS MORNING
WITH IFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT TIMES IN FOG. CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 359 PM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
FLUCTUATING WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE ON THE MISSOURI RIVER
THROUGH BISMARCK AND MANDAN THROUGH MIDWEEK. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOK ON OUR WEB PAGE FOR FULL DETAILS. THE LACK OF UPSTREAM
ICE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL HELP TO LOWER THE RISK OF HIGHER
WATER OVER THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JV
HYDROLOGY...CJS/AJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1110 AM CST WED FEB 17 2016
.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
WEST THURSDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST WED FEB 17 2016/
UPDATE...
WINDS WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW.
DISCUSSION...
MIXING HAS COMMENCED LATE THIS MORNING AND WIND SPEEDS HAVE
QUICKLY INCREASED ACROSS W/NW OK AS A RESULT. THE HRRR SEEMS TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT TRENDS SO THE WINDS THROUGH 00Z WERE
HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD IT (~15 TO 20 KT ACROSS W/NW OK).
OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED. DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS LOOK GOOD.
ALL UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CST WED FEB 17 2016/
DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY WEATHER ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE FIRE
WEATHER POTENTIAL TOMORROW. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
STRONG LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND INCREASES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE MOISTURE
FIELDS FROM THE SYNOPTIC MODELS AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN
HIGHLY OVERESTIMATED IN THE LAST FEW FIRE WEATHER DAYS IN THE
WEST. ON THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC SCALE... THE SURFACE FRONT HAS MADE
IT DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND HAS STALLED SOMEWHERE
NEAR KINGSVILLE IN SOUTH TEXAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
ADVECT MOISTURE BACK NORTH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT... BUT HAVE
DOUBTS ABOUT MOISTURE DEPTH BY TOMORROW. A DRYLINE WILL PUSH INTO
THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH MUCH
LOWER DEWPOINTS WEST OF THE DRYLINE AND A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN AT LEAST NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR EAST DOES THE DRYLINE MIX. HAVE
CREATED THE GRIDS TO BRING THE DRYLINE FARTHER EAST THAN THE
SYNOPTIC MODELS WOULD INDICATE. NAM AND ECMWF BARELY BRING THE
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT TO THE NORTHWESTERN BORDER AND GFS IS
FARTHER EAST BUT STILL LIKELY UNDERESTIMATING THE DRYLINE
MOVEMENT. HAVE THE DRYLINE MAKING IT TO A LINE FROM NORTH OF ALVA
TO NEAR CHEYENNE IN THE FORECAST... AND WILL MAINTAIN THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IN THIS AREAS. BUT WOULD NOT BE AT ALL SURPRISED IF
THE DRYLINE MOVES FARTHER EAST. THE OTHER QUESTION IS IF MOISTURE
WILL MIX OUT SUFFICIENTLY EVEN EAST OF THE DRYLINE TO MEET RED
FLAG CONDITIONS IN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. HAVE
SEEN OVER THE YEARS THE TENDENCY FOR MOISTURE TO MIX OUT MORE
OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS THAN SURROUNDING AREAS IN THESE TYPES OF
SITUATIONS AND EVEN THE SYNOPTIC MODEL DEWPOINT FIELDS HINT AT
MIXING MOISTURE OUT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY DOWN THERE. WILL DEFINITELY
BE WATCHING TRENDS IN MOISTURE RETURN TODAY AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT TO
FURTHER DEFINE THE FIRE WEATHER RISK AREA FOR TOMORROW. RIGHT NOW
THE AREA OF THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH STILL LOOKS GOOD... BUT AGAIN
INTERESTS THROUGHOUT WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
SHOULD MONITOR THE SITUATION.
A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN A
BIT IN THE NORTH... ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AGAIN IN THE
SOUTH ON FRIDAY. HUMIDITY WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER AND WINDS
LIGHTER THAN THURSDAY... SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT QUITE AS
HIGH. VERY WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY BEFORE A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT COOLS THINGS A BIT MORE FOR SUNDAY
/ALTHOUGH IT IS HARD TO SAY COOL AS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE/. THERE WILL BE SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES
EARLY IN THE WEEK AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
PLAINS AND THE COLD FRONT REMAINS IN THE VICINITY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 70 48 77 56 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 72 49 79 53 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 74 48 82 57 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 75 47 84 49 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 70 47 77 54 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 69 47 73 58 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004-005-009-010-014.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
03/25/25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
1014 AM CST WED FEB 17 2016
.UPDATE...
WINDS WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MIXING HAS COMMENCED LATE THIS MORNING AND WIND SPEEDS HAVE
QUICKLY INCREASED ACROSS W/NW OK AS A RESULT. THE HRRR SEEMS TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT TRENDS SO THE WINDS THROUGH 00Z WERE
HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD IT (~15 TO 20 KT ACROSS W/NW OK).
OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED. DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS LOOK GOOD.
ALL UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CST WED FEB 17 2016/
DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY WEATHER ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE FIRE
WEATHER POTENTIAL TOMORROW. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
STRONG LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND INCREASES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE MOISTURE
FIELDS FROM THE SYNOPTIC MODELS AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN
HIGHLY OVERESTIMATED IN THE LAST FEW FIRE WEATHER DAYS IN THE
WEST. ON THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC SCALE... THE SURFACE FRONT HAS MADE
IT DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND HAS STALLED SOMEWHERE
NEAR KINGSVILLE IN SOUTH TEXAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
ADVECT MOISTURE BACK NORTH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT... BUT HAVE
DOUBTS ABOUT MOISTURE DEPTH BY TOMORROW. A DRYLINE WILL PUSH INTO
THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH MUCH
LOWER DEWPOINTS WEST OF THE DRYLINE AND A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN AT LEAST NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR EAST DOES THE DRYLINE MIX. HAVE
CREATED THE GRIDS TO BRING THE DRYLINE FARTHER EAST THAN THE
SYNOPTIC MODELS WOULD INDICATE. NAM AND ECMWF BARELY BRING THE
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT TO THE NORTHWESTERN BORDER AND GFS IS
FARTHER EAST BUT STILL LIKELY UNDERESTIMATING THE DRYLINE
MOVEMENT. HAVE THE DRYLINE MAKING IT TO A LINE FROM NORTH OF ALVA
TO NEAR CHEYENNE IN THE FORECAST... AND WILL MAINTAIN THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IN THIS AREAS. BUT WOULD NOT BE AT ALL SURPRISED IF
THE DRYLINE MOVES FARTHER EAST. THE OTHER QUESTION IS IF MOISTURE
WILL MIX OUT SUFFICIENTLY EVEN EAST OF THE DRYLINE TO MEET RED
FLAG CONDITIONS IN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. HAVE
SEEN OVER THE YEARS THE TENDENCY FOR MOISTURE TO MIX OUT MORE
OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS THAN SURROUNDING AREAS IN THESE TYPES OF
SITUATIONS AND EVEN THE SYNOPTIC MODEL DEWPOINT FIELDS HINT AT
MIXING MOISTURE OUT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY DOWN THERE. WILL DEFINITELY
BE WATCHING TRENDS IN MOISTURE RETURN TODAY AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT TO
FURTHER DEFINE THE FIRE WEATHER RISK AREA FOR TOMORROW. RIGHT NOW
THE AREA OF THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH STILL LOOKS GOOD... BUT AGAIN
INTERESTS THROUGHOUT WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
SHOULD MONITOR THE SITUATION.
A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN A
BIT IN THE NORTH... ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AGAIN IN THE
SOUTH ON FRIDAY. HUMIDITY WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER AND WINDS
LIGHTER THAN THURSDAY... SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT QUITE AS
HIGH. VERY WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY BEFORE A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT COOLS THINGS A BIT MORE FOR SUNDAY
/ALTHOUGH IT IS HARD TO SAY COOL AS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE/. THERE WILL BE SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES
EARLY IN THE WEEK AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
PLAINS AND THE COLD FRONT REMAINS IN THE VICINITY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 70 48 77 56 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 72 49 79 53 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 74 48 82 57 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 75 47 84 49 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 70 47 77 54 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 69 47 73 58 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004-005-009-010-014.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
03/25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
750 AM EST WED FEB 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL PA
TODAY...BRINGING OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR
THURSDAY WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE...BUT COLDER
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING SOME 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT OF THE SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS AND
LIMITED MOISTURE OFF THE GLAKES WAS RESULTING IN SOME VERY LIGHT
FLURRIES (AND A FEW BRIEF INSTANCES OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF ROUTE 219 ACROSS THE LAURELS - INVOF KJST).
SKIES WILL STAY OVERCAST THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS TODAY WITH
A 5-8 KT WNW SFC WIND AND TEMPS IN THE 20S ACROSS THE NRN AND
WESTERN MTNS...WITH 30S ELSEWHERE.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWING SE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING AN
INCREASING CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME LIGHT ACCUMS OF A COATING
TO AROUND ONE INCH ACROSS THE NRN MTNS (BEGINNING DURING THE MID
TO LATE MORNING HOURS) AND EVENTUALLY OVER THE LAUREL LATE THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
MDL DATA INDICATES THE PARENT SHORTWAVE WEAKENS AND SCOOTS BY TO
THE NORTH OF PA TODAY. HOWEVER...A BKN BAND OF -SHSN IS FORECAST
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NW MTNS BTWN 12Z-15Z. VSBYS IN THIS LIKELY
WEAKENING NORTH/SOUTH SNOW BAND SHOULD BE GENERALLY IN THE 2-4SM
RANGE.
THE LATEST VERSIONS OF THE HRRR /09Z/ AND THE 03Z SREF APPEAR TO
DISSOLVE THIS INITIAL BAND OF SNOW ACROSS THE NW MTNS EARLY
TODAY...AND BRING THE BEST CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...AND LAURELS AFTER 19Z/21Z RESPECTIVELY.
ELSEWHERE...DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WIND...A LOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
BASE AND RELATIVELY WARM STRATO CU CLOUD LAYER...SHOULD LIMIT
PRECIP TO SCT FLURRIES THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
REGION OF THE STATE.
SKIES DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS...ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM CLOUDY ACROSS THE W MTNS...TO PTSUNNY OVR THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY. MDL 8H TEMPS ARND 8C SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MAX TEMPS
FROM THE L30S ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO THE L40S OVR THE
SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH VERY DRY AIR REFLECTED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS...AND GENERALLY JUST SOME SCATTERED PANCAKE
STRATO CU DRIFTING SE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOWS TONIGHT UNDER GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUD COVER...WILL RANGE
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO AROUND 20F
THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND LOWER
TO MID 30S IN THE SUSQ VALLEY...WILL AVERAGE 5-8 DEG F BELOW
NORMAL
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOOKING AT A SW FLOW OF MILD AND DRY AIR OFF THE HIGH PLAINS FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS AIRMASS...SO DID CUT BACK ON
POPS WHERE POSSIBLE. ONLY A FEW RAIN SHOWERS IF THAT.
COLDER AIR WORKS BACK IN AFTER THE WEEKEND.
00Z EC AND GEFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHARP
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER AIR FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE
EARLY TO MIDWEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK.
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS IDAHO AND THE REST OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS THE IDEAL LOCATION FOR DOWNSTREAM ENERGY TO
DIG INTO THE BASE OF AN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AND TRIGGER COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTHENING.
OPERATIONAL EC AND GEFS BOTH SHOW SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NRN
GOMEX TUESDAY...THEN A GENERAL TRACK AND DEEPENING OF A SFC LOW NE
ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID ATLANTIC COAST BY WED NIGHT. PLAN TO
INCREASE POPS FOR THE TUESDAY-WED NIGHT PERIOD WITH THE NEXT...12Z
GRIDDED DATA/ZONE PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE SLIDING SW-NE OVERHEAD NOW SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
KEEPING IFR RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE OVER WESTERN AREAS...WHILE MVFR
CIGS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF REMAINDER OF CWA. AS THIS LIFTS
NE...CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE EAST.
TROUGH FOLLOWS FOR TODAY...AS RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY
OVER WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP. THE
MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER IN THE CENTRAL MTNS INTO EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON... BUT OTHERWISE CENTRAL AND SE WILL REMAIN VFR.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE ON THURSDAY...THEN LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THU...MAINLY VFR.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. PERHAPS A RAIN SHOWER...MAINLY LATE.
SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
538 AM EST WED FEB 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL PA
TODAY...BRINGING OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR
THURSDAY WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE...BUT COLDER
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING SOME 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT OF THE SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS AND
LIMITED MOISTURE OFF THE GLAKES WAS RESULTING IN SOME VERY LIGHT
FLURRIES (AND A FEW BRIEF INSTANCES OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF ROUTE 219 ACROSS THE LAURELS - INVOF KJST).
SKIES WILL STAY OVERCAST THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS TODAY WITH
A 5-8 KT WNW SFC WIND AND TEMPS IN THE 20S ACROSS THE NRN AND
WESTERN MTNS...WITH 30S ELSEWHERE.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWING SE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING AN
INCREASING CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME LIGHT ACCUMS OF A COATING
TO AROUND ONE INCH ACROSS THE NRN MTNS (BEGINNING DURING THE MID
TO LATE MORNING HOURS) AND EVENTUALLY OVER THE LAUREL LATE THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
MDL DATA INDICATES THE PARENT SHORTWAVE WEAKENS AND SCOOTS BY TO
THE NORTH OF PA TODAY. HOWEVER...A BKN BAND OF -SHSN IS FORECAST
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NW MTNS BTWN 12Z-15Z. VSBYS IN THIS LIKELY
WEAKENING NORTH/SOUTH SNOW BAND SHOULD BE GENERALLY IN THE 2-4SM
RANGE.
THE LATEST VERSIONS OF THE HRRR /09Z/ AND THE 03Z SREF APPEAR TO
DISSOLVE THIS INITIAL BAND OF SNOW ACROSS THE NW MTNS EARLY
TODAY...AND BRING THE BEST CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...AND LAURELS AFTER 19Z/21Z RESPECTIVELY.
ELSEWHERE...DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WIND...A LOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
BASE AND RELATIVELY WARM STRATO CU CLOUD LAYER...SHOULD LIMIT
PRECIP TO SCT FLURRIES THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
REGION OF THE STATE.
SKIES DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS...ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM CLOUDY ACROSS THE W MTNS...TO PTSUNNY OVR THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY. MDL 8H TEMPS ARND 8C SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MAX TEMPS
FROM THE L30S ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO THE L40S OVR THE
SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH VERY DRY AIR REFLECTED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS...AND GENERALLY JUST SOME SCATTERED PANCAKE
STRATO CU DRIFTING SE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOWS TONIGHT UNDER GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUD COVER...WILL RANGE
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO AROUND 20F
THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND LOWER
TO MID 30S IN THE SUSQ VALLEY...WILL AVERAGE 5-8 DEG F BELOW
NORMAL
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOOKING AT A SW FLOW OF MILD AND DRY AIR OFF THE HIGH PLAINS FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS AIRMASS...SO DID CUT BACK ON
POPS WHERE POSSIBLE. ONLY A FEW RAIN SHOWERS IF THAT.
COLDER AIR WORKS BACK IN AFTER THE WEEKEND.
00Z EC AND GEFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHARP
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER AIR FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE
EARLY TO MIDWEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK.
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS IDAHO AND THE REST OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS THE IDEAL LOCATION FOR DOWNSTREAM ENERGY TO
DIG INTO THE BASE OF AN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AND TRIGGER COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTHENING.
OPERATIONAL EC AND GEFS BOTH SHOW SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NRN
GOMEX TUESDAY...THEN A GENERAL TRACK AND DEEPENING OF A SFC LOW NE
ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID ATLANTIC COAST BY WED NIGHT. PLAN TO
INCREASE POPS FOR THE TUESDAY-WED NIGHT PERIOD WITH THE NEXT...12Z
GRIDDED DATA/ZONE PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE SLIDING SW-NE OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING KEEPING IFR
RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE OVER WESTERN AREAS...WHILE MVFR CIGS SPREAD
ACROSS REMAINDER OF CWA FOR SEVERAL HOURS PRE-DAWN. COULD EVEN BE
A BIT OF PATCHY DZ/FZDZ IN SPOTS.
TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH ON WED...AS RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE MAINLY OVER
WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THEY MAY AGAIN
SPILL INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS FOR A TIME...BUT OTHERWISE CENTRAL AND
SE WILL REMAIN VFR.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE ON THURSDAY...THEN LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WED...ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES THROUGH KEEPING RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE
OVER THE WEST /AND POSS CENTRAL/ ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
SNOW.
THU...MAINLY VFR.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. PERHAPS A RAIN SHOWER...MAINLY LATE.
SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
317 AM EST WED FEB 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL PA TODAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT OF THE SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS AND
LIMITED MOISTURE OFF THE GLAKES WAS RESULTING IN SOME VERY LIGHT
FLURRIES (AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF
ROUTE 219 ACROSS THE LAURELS). SKIES WILL STAY OVERCAST EARLY
TODAY WITH A 5-8 KT WNW SFC WIND AND TEMPS DROPPING SLOWLY FROM
THEIR 08Z READINGS RANGING FROM IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NRN
AND WESTERN MTNS...TO THE 30S ELSEWHERE.
NO HEADLINES PLANNED ATTM...AS ANY -FZDZ SHOULD BE LOW IMPACT AND
LIMITED TO JUST HIGH LOCALIZED FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS ON THE RIDGES
AND WEST-FACING SLOPES OF THE LAURELS. THE FRESHLY TREATED ROAD
SURFACES WILL HELP TO GREATLY MINIMIZE THE ADVERSE IMPACT ON
TRAVEL.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS AT DAWN TO RANGE FROM THE L20S ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...TO ARND 30F OVR THE SE COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWING SE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING AN
INCREASING CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME LIGHT ACCUMS OF AROUND ONE
INCH ACROSS THE NRN MTNS (BEGINNING DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS) AND EVENTUALLY OVER THE LAUREL LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON. MDL DATA INDICATES THE PARENT SHORTWAVE WEAKENS AND
LIFTS NORTH OF PA TODAY. HOWEVER...A BKN BAND OF -SHSN IS FORECAST
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NW MTNS BTWN 12Z-15Z. ALTHOUGH THE TUESDAY 18Z
GEFS SUPPORTED LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NW MTNS THRU MIDDAY AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES...THE
LATEST VERSIONS OF THE HRRR AND 03Z SREF APPEAR TO BRING THE BEST
CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS...AND LAURELS AFTER 19Z/21Z
RESPECTIVELY. ELSEWHERE...DOWNSLOPING WEST WIND SHOULD LIMIT
PRECIP TO SCT FLURRIES EAST OF THE MTNS.
SKIES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM CLOUDY ACROSS THE W MTNS DURING THE
DAY TODAY...TO PTSUNNY OVR THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. MDL 8H TEMPS
ARND 8C SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MAX TEMPS FROM THE L30S ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO THE L40S OVR THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR THU. DID EDGE DEWPOINTS DOWN.
LOOKING A SW FLOW OF MILD AND DRY AIR OFF THE HIGH PLAINS FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS AIRMASS...SO DID CUT BACK ON
POPS WHERE POSSIBLE. ONLY A FEW RAIN SHOWERS IF THAT.
OVERALL PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD...DID NUDGE TEMPS A DEGREE HERE
AND THERE.
COLDER AIR WORKS BACK IN AFTER THE WEEKEND.
EC AND OTHER MODELS MORE OFF THE COAST WITH ANY STORM FOR
MID WEEK NOW. AS WITH RECENT CASES...COMPLICATED WITH 3 OR
MORE PIECES OF UPPER LVL ENERGY. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOW POPS
ACROSS THE SE TO MATCH IN WITH OTHERS.
THE WEATHER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RUNOFF
DURING THE DAY. A NICE DRY SPELL TO DRY THINGS OUT SOME. ENJOY
THE BREAK FROM THE RECENT STORMY...WET CONDITIONS. SOME ICE
FORMATION WED AND THU NIGHT...BUT LIMITED AMT OF TIME BELOW
FREEZING FOR VERY MUCH RIVER/STREAM ICE FORMATION.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE SLIDING SW-NE OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING KEEPING IFR
RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE OVER WESTERN AREAS...WHILE MVFR CIGS SPREAD
ACROSS REMAINDER OF CWA FOR SEVERAL HOURS PRE-DAWN. COULD EVEN BE
A BIT OF PATCHY DZ/FZDZ IN SPOTS.
TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH ON WED...AS RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE MAINLY OVER
WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THEY MAY AGAIN
SPILL INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS FOR A TIME...BUT OTHERWISE CENTRAL AND
SE WILL REMAIN VFR.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE ON THURSDAY...THEN LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WED...ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES THROUGH KEEPING RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE
OVER THE WEST /AND POSS CENTRAL/ ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
SNOW.
THU...MAINLY VFR.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. PERHAPS A RAIN SHOWER...MAINLY LATE.
SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
920 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 917 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR THIS EVENING ACROSS
CENTRAL SD WITH MORE UPSTREAM. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM MODELS SHOW
THIS TREND IN INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE.
THUS...UPDATED WEATHER AND POPS ACROSS THE AREA. A DEEP SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHWEST SD THIS EVENING WILL MOVE QUICKLY
EAST WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEHIND IT. THIS WILL BRING VERY
STRONG WINDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA. THE SHOWERS COULD
BRING DOWN SOME OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT WITH GUST UP TO 60
MPH OR HIGHER OUT WEST. MOVED UP THE START TIME OF THE HIGH WIND
WARNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 607 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 147 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BUT
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS WITH SHOWERS
AND THEN AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE WILL BE 50 TO 70 KT WINDS
ALOFT AT 850 MB BUT THE ISSUE WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THEY WILL MIX
DOWN GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. LOCAL SHOWERS
WILL HELP MIX THEM DOWN AS WILL DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SO
HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AREAS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
STARTING AT 6Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 0Z. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE EAST OF THE WARNING. THE FIRST ITEM TO NOTE WILL BE THAT
WARNING LEVEL WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED TONIGHT...PERHAPS AN HOUR OR
TWO ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE SECOND THING TO
WATCH WILL BE THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS ALONG THE SISSETON HILLS WHICH
MAY MORE EASILY TAP INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. AND THE THIRD
THING TO NOTE IS THAT A COUPLE OF THE MODELS GENERATE WARNING LEVEL
GUSTS AS FAR EAST AS THE JAMES VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE
POTENTIAL FOR MOMENTUM TRANSFER ALL THE WAY TO THE SFC IS LIMITED.
AREAS THAT ARE SNOW FREE WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS INCREASE. EXTREME FIRE
DANGER IS EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE
IN PART TO THE GOOD MIXING AND ALSO TO ALMOST FLAT FLOW ALOFT. ONCE
THE CLOUDS CLEAR HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON SAT NIGHT. COOLER TEMPS WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH AS WILL
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. STILL LOOKING AT
AN EXITING SHORTWAVE EARLY SUNDAY THAT COULD RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
TRANSITIONS BACK TO RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS...AND THE PLAINS STATES UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SHORTWAVES THAT TRACK ACROSS THE REGION NEXT
WEEK...BUT WITH A LACK OF CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY...MAINTAINED A
DRY FORECAST. OVERALL TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK MODELS
BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THERMAL PROFILES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ALONG
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING VERY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS TO ALL LOCATIONS INTO FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INITIAL SURGE
OF STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE FRONT AND THEN A
LULL IN THE WINDS. AS THE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS AGAIN ON
FRIDAY...WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 35 TO 45 KNOTS OR HIGHER. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME HIGH BASED
SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. THESE MAY BRING
DOWN SOME OF THE VERY STRONG WINDS AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ FRIDAY FOR SDZ003-004-
009-015-016-033>035-045-048.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR SDZ005>008-010-011-017>023-
036-037-051.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR MNZ039-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...MOHR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
906 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR THIS EVENING ACROSS
CENTRAL SD WITH MORE UPSTREAM. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM MODELS
SHOW THIS TREND IN INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE.
THUS...UPDATED WEATHER AND POPS ACROSS THE AREA. A DEEP SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHWEST SD THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
QUICKLY EAST WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEHIND IT. THIS WILL BRING
VERY STRONG WINDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA. THE SHOWERS
COULD BRING DOWN SOME OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT WITH GUST UP TO
60 MPH OR HIGHER OUT WEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 607 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 147 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BUT
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS WITH SHOWERS
AND THEN AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE WILL BE 50 TO 70 KT WINDS
ALOFT AT 850 MB BUT THE ISSUE WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THEY WILL MIX
DOWN GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. LOCAL SHOWERS
WILL HELP MIX THEM DOWN AS WILL DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SO
HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AREAS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
STARTING AT 6Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 0Z. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE EAST OF THE WARNING. THE FIRST ITEM TO NOTE WILL BE THAT
WARNING LEVEL WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED TONIGHT...PERHAPS AN HOUR OR
TWO ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE SECOND THING TO
WATCH WILL BE THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS ALONG THE SISSETON HILLS WHICH
MAY MORE EASILY TAP INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. AND THE THIRD
THING TO NOTE IS THAT A COUPLE OF THE MODELS GENERATE WARNING LEVEL
GUSTS AS FAR EAST AS THE JAMES VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE
POTENTIAL FOR MOMENTUM TRANSFER ALL THE WAY TO THE SFC IS LIMITED.
AREAS THAT ARE SNOW FREE WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS INCREASE. EXTREME FIRE
DANGER IS EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE
IN PART TO THE GOOD MIXING AND ALSO TO ALMOST FLAT FLOW ALOFT. ONCE
THE CLOUDS CLEAR HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON SAT NIGHT. COOLER TEMPS WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH AS WILL
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. STILL LOOKING AT
AN EXITING SHORTWAVE EARLY SUNDAY THAT COULD RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
TRANSITIONS BACK TO RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS...AND THE PLAINS STATES UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SHORTWAVES THAT TRACK ACROSS THE REGION NEXT
WEEK...BUT WITH A LACK OF CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY...MAINTAINED A
DRY FORECAST. OVERALL TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK MODELS
BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THERMAL PROFILES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ALONG
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING VERY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS TO ALL LOCATIONS INTO FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INITIAL SURGE
OF STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE FRONT AND THEN A
LULL IN THE WINDS. AS THE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS AGAIN ON
FRIDAY...WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 35 TO 45 KNOTS OR HIGHER. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME HIGH BASED
SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. THESE MAY BRING
DOWN SOME OF THE VERY STRONG WINDS AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST
/5 PM MST/ FRIDAY FOR SDZ003-004-009-015-016-033>035-045-048.
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR
SDZ005>008-010-011-017>023-036-037-051.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR MNZ039-
046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...MOHR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
232 PM EST WED FEB 17 2016
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST NEAR
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS MOVING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. CLOSER TO
HOME...THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. HOWEVER...THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK LIFT
FROM THE TROUGH ARE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN IN SW VA AND ALONG THE
TN/NC LINE. WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED A SMALL MENTION FOR PRECIP. FOR
THESE LOCATIONS THROUGH 03Z...WHEN THE RAP INDICATES THAT IT WILL
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. ANOTHER CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUD
COVER. CLOUDS HAVE HELD IN MUCH LONGER TODAY THAN ANTICIPATED WITH
WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT. CLOUDS SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
TONIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME
PATCHY FOG TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS IN
THE FORECAST JUST YET.
FOR TOMORROW...SKIES WILL FINALLY BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE WEST WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE...WITH HEIGHT
RISES...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA.
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRESENT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SET
UP...BRINGING STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN PLATEAU AND SOUTHWEST VA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. VERY
LITTLE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK BOUNDARY...SO ONLY KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POP IN. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO
OUT OF THE WEST...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY EXPECTED TO WARM A DEGREE
OR TWO FROM FRIDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH AN
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING A HIGHER CHANCE
FOR RAIN SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT. VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY
AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH WINDS BECOMING STRONG IN AREAS
NORTH OF I40. ONLY EXPECTING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL ABOVE AVERAGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLDER AIR FILTERS BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING ABOUT 10 DEGREES...BUT STAYING A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE GULF STATES. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...THROWING MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPS INTO THE AREA. KEPT
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS GOING THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORKWEEK...WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXPECTED. MODELS
DIFFER GREATLY FROM RUN TO RUN ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND THE
TRACK. MODELS SHOW THE LOW MOVING IN A GENERAL DIRECTION UP THE EAST
SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WITH THAT TRACK...FLOW WILL TRANSITION
OUT OF THE NORTH...WITH COLD AIR MOVING IN AND SNOW POSSIBLE.
LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN CHANCE FOR SNOW IS GOING TO BE WEDNESDAY...BUT
OF COURSE THIS IS TOO FAR OUT TO SAY WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 33 57 37 63 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 30 51 33 62 / 0 0 0 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 30 51 33 62 / 0 0 0 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 28 47 28 61 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
MA/JW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
255 PM EST WED FEB 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN
WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL COVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 200 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
A SHORTWAVE LOCATED IN KENTUCKY AROUND 18Z WILL ROTATE EAST
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
THE UPPER TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO PIVOT NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...ALLOWING SOME RIDGING AND RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS. SFC
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
HIRESW-ARW-E...RNK- WRFARW...GFS AND NAM SHOWED ISOLATED SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THE ECMWF...RAP AND HRRR ARE
LESS IMPRESSED FOR ACTIVITY. FOR TONIGHT...WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN AN INCH. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF GREENBRIER COUNTY OF WEST VIRGINIA.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 20S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
ANY LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES SHOULD BE
GONE THURSDAY MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SOME LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MAY STILL PERSIST
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WHEN THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM EST WEDNESDAY
A CLASSIC WEDGE WILL TAKE RESIDENCE OVER THE EAST COAST THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE MID ATLANTIC PORTION OF THE WEDGE WILL
DRIFT OUT TO SEA AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE TRACKS EAST OF
THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A WEAK
COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THIS WEDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US WHILE BLOCKING THE
GULF. THE FRONT COMING ACROSS EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE MOISTURE
STARVED WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HITTING THE WESTERN SLOPES
AND ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. ZONAL FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
BEING AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE M/U 40S WEST TO L50S EAST.
DESPITE THE PASSING OF A WEAK FRONT SATURDAY
MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH
WIDESPREAD 50S ACROSS THE AREA TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM EST WEDNESDAY
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WILL REMAIN SEPARATED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL TRACK EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEASTERN US. ACROSS THE SOUTH...A
STALLED BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RAIN FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO SOUTH
CAROLINA. FOR THE IMMEDIATE AREA...A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED FRONT
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY FALL ALONG WESTERN SLOPES...DRY ELSEWHERE.
WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
50S AND 60S.
ON MONDAY...THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL SEND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM AND TRACK ALONG
THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT
WITH TIMING OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE MONDAY EVENING. THE STRENGTH OF
THE WEDGE WILL DEPEND ON WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP TO EXPECT OVERNIGHT.
THE WEDGE MOVES OUT QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING RETURNING TO RAIN BY
THE AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IT
BECOMES NEGATIVE-TILTED WITH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TRACKING EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE COASTAL PIEDMONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR ALL PRECIPITATION TO STAY
LIQUID. THE FRONT WILL PASS TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALL PRECIP
SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1243 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS EXPECTED IN KBLF...KLWB AND KBCB THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT
KDAN...KLYH AND KROA INTO TONIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CREATE MVFR CLOUDS
FOR THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. UPSLOPE RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT A SMALL CHANCE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL IMPACT KLWB
OR KBLF. WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING TAF
PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. IT COULD
SPARK SOME MOUNTAIN RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 1252 PM EST TUESDAY...
STAGES ARE FALLING ON THE UPPER DAN RIVER FROM DANVILLE UPSTREAM
BUT CONTINUING TO RISE DOWNSTREAM. EXPECT MINOR FLOODING OF
LOWLAND AREAS. STAGES ALSO CONTINUE TO CLIMB ALONG THE LOWER
ROANOKE RIVER IMPACTING LOWLANDS AND SEVERAL ROADS NEAR THE RIVER.
FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
VIRGINIA...ROANOKE RIVER AT RANDOLPH AFFECTING CHARLOTTE AND
HALIFAX COUNTIES, DAN RIVER AT PACES AFFECTING HALIFAX COUNTY AND
DAN RIVER AT SOUTH BOSTON AFFECTING HALIFAX COUNTY. CHECK LATEST
FLS FOR FLOOD DETAILS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS/LC
AVIATION...AMS/KK
HYDROLOGY...KK/PC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1255 PM EST WED FEB 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THEN WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY
THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE EAST FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.
AS OF 955 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE EASTERN TROF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO PIVOT
NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THE HIRESW-ARW EAST...RNK WRF ARW AND RAP
SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
THIS MORNING HRRR IS LESS IMPRESSED WITH SNOW SHOWERS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO OTHER HIRES SOLUTIONS. WILL MAINTAIN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN AN INCH. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SNOW WILL OCCUR ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF GREENBRIER COUNTY
OF WEST VIRGINIA. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST OBS AND MODEL
TRENDS FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD WITH
CURRENT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COULD BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER IN SOUTHSIDE WITH SUNSHINE. MORE CHANGES
LATER TODAY...
AS OF 655 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND CLOUDS WERE
ALREADY CLEARING OUT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE EASTERN TROF THIS
AFTERNOON THEN TROF AXIS MOVES EAST AND 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE EAST THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN TONIGHT.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE ARRIVE IN THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. BY MIDNIGHT...ENOUGH DRY AIR COMES IN TO END
THE UPSLOPE SHOWERS AND ON THURSDAY FOR CLEARING IN THE MOUNTAINS.
NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS FROM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY OR TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
ANY LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE GONE BY THURSDAY
MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOME
LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MAY STILL PERSIST UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WHEN THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING TOWARD THE MID TO UPPER 40S. AS THE HIGH SAGS SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON THURSDAY NIGHT...CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WINDS SHOULD ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP
LOWS BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BREEZE WILL PICK UP DURING FRIDAY...AS THE CWA
ENTERS A ZONE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD ALSO TAKE PLACE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. ALTHOUGH SOME PASSING CIRRUS CLOUDS MAY DAMPER THE FULL
POTENTIAL OF DIURNAL HEATING...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID
40S TO THE MID 50S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...A PASSING DISTURBANCE MOVING
EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO IN CANADA MAY LEAVE A TONGUE OF
SHALLOW MOISTURE STRETCHING SOUTHWARD OVER THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS. WITH LOWS HOLDING ABOVE FREEZING DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...ONLY A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE WESTERN
SLOPES. IN ADDITION...SOUTH WINDS SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT ALONG
THE HIGHEST RIDGETOPS...AND COULD POSSIBLY GUST UP TO 30 MPH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST TUESDAY
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WILL REMAIN SEPARATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL TRACK EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEASTERN US. ACROSS THE SOUTH...A STALLED
BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RAIN FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO SOUTH CAROLINA. FOR
THE IMMEDIATE AREA...A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED FRONT WILL PASS OVER
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MAY FALL ALONG WESTERN SLOPES...DRY ELSEWHERE. THIS
FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE PIEDMONT AND BECOME A LEE TROUGH. WITH
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 50S
AND 60S.
ON MONDAY...THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL SEND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM AND TRACK ALONG
THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE
LOW PRESSURE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BUCKLES THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY
NORTH...LINKING UP WITH THE LEE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVE-TILTED WITH CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS TRACKING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE COASTAL PIEDMONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR
ALL PRECIPITATION TO STAY LIQUID. THE FRONT WILL PASS TO THE EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1243 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS EXPECTED IN KBLF...KLWB AND KBCB
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT
KDAN...KLYH AND KROA INTO TONIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CREATE MVFR CLOUDS
FOR THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. UPSLOPE RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT A SMALL CHANCE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL IMPACT KLWB
OR KBLF. WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING TAF
PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. IT COULD
SPARK SOME MOUNTAIN RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 1252 PM EST TUESDAY...
STAGES ARE FALLING ON THE UPPER DAN RIVER FROM DANVILLE UPSTREAM BUT CONTINUING
TO RISE DOWNSTREAM. EXPECT MINOR FLOODING OF LOWLAND AREAS. STAGES ALSO
CONTINUE TO CLIMB ALONG THE LOWER ROANOKE RIVER IMPACTING LOWLANDS AND SEVERAL
ROADS NEAR THE RIVER. FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
VIRGINIA...ROANOKE RIVER AT RANDOLPH AFFECTING CHARLOTTE AND
HALIFAX COUNTIES, DAN RIVER AT PACES AFFECTING HALIFAX COUNTY AND DAN
RIVER AT SOUTH BOSTON AFFECTING HALIFAX COUNTY. CHECK LATEST FLS
FOR FLOOD DETAILS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS/KK
HYDROLOGY...KK/PC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1243 PM EST WED FEB 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THEN WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY
THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE EAST FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.
AS OF 955 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE EASTERN TROF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO PIVOT
NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THE HIRESW-ARW EAST...RNK WRF ARW AND RAP
SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
THIS MORNING HRRR IS LESS IMPRESSED WITH SNOW SHOWERS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO OTHER HIRES SOLUTIONS. WILL MAINTAIN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN AN INCH. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SNOW WILL OCCUR ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF GREENBRIER COUNTY
OF WEST VIRGINIA. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST OBS AND MODEL
TRENDS FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD WITH
CURRENT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COULD BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER IN SOUTHSIDE WITH SUNSHINE. MORE CHANGES
LATER TODAY...
AS OF 655 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND CLOUDS WERE
ALREADY CLEARING OUT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE EASTERN TROF THIS
AFTERNOON THEN TROF AXIS MOVES EAST AND 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE EAST THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN TONIGHT.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE ARRIVE IN THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. BY MIDNIGHT...ENOUGH DRY AIR COMES IN TO END
THE UPSLOPE SHOWERS AND ON THURSDAY FOR CLEARING IN THE MOUNTAINS.
NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS FROM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY OR TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
ANY LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE GONE BY THURSDAY
MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOME
LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MAY STILL PERSIST UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WHEN THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING TOWARD THE MID TO UPPER 40S. AS THE HIGH SAGS SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON THURSDAY NIGHT...CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WINDS SHOULD ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP
LOWS BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BREEZE WILL PICK UP DURING FRIDAY...AS THE CWA
ENTERS A ZONE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD ALSO TAKE PLACE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. ALTHOUGH SOME PASSING CIRRUS CLOUDS MAY DAMPER THE FULL
POTENTIAL OF DIURNAL HEATING...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID
40S TO THE MID 50S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...A PASSING DISTURBANCE MOVING
EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO IN CANADA MAY LEAVE A TONGUE OF
SHALLOW MOISTURE STRETCHING SOUTHWARD OVER THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS. WITH LOWS HOLDING ABOVE FREEZING DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...ONLY A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE WESTERN
SLOPES. IN ADDITION...SOUTH WINDS SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT ALONG
THE HIGHEST RIDGETOPS...AND COULD POSSIBLY GUST UP TO 30 MPH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST TUESDAY
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WILL REMAIN SEPARATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL TRACK EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEASTERN US. ACROSS THE SOUTH...A STALLED
BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RAIN FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO SOUTH CAROLINA. FOR
THE IMMEDIATE AREA...A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED FRONT WILL PASS OVER
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MAY FALL ALONG WESTERN SLOPES...DRY ELSEWHERE. THIS
FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE PIEDMONT AND BECOME A LEE TROUGH. WITH
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 50S
AND 60S.
ON MONDAY...THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL SEND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM AND TRACK ALONG
THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE
LOW PRESSURE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BUCKLES THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY
NORTH...LINKING UP WITH THE LEE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVE-TILTED WITH CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS TRACKING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE COASTAL PIEDMONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR
ALL PRECIPITATION TO STAY LIQUID. THE FRONT WILL PASS TO THE EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1243 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS EXPECTED IN KBLF...KLWB AND KBCB
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT
KDAN...KLYH AND KROA INTO TONIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CREATE MVFR CLOUDS
FOR THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. UPSLOPE RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT A SMALL CHANCE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL IMPACT KLWB
OR KBLF. WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING TAF
PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. IT COULD
SPARK SOME MOUNTAIN RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 303 PM EST TUESDAY...
STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION (2-DAY) IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND RAIN
(MUCH OF IT FREEZING) HAS RANGED GENERALLY FROM 1 TO 2.5 INCHES
WITH UP TO 3+ INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF BEDFORD...EASTERN FRANKLIN
AND SOUTHERN BOTETOURT COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH THIS IS RADAR INDICATED
AND NOT WELL CORROBORATED BY RAIN GAGES. WITH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT RAIN FALLING ONTO AND INTO A SUBSTANTIAL SNOWPACK THE
HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT MUTED.
FORECASTS ON THE JAMES HAVE BEEN REDUCED SLIGHTLY FROM YESTERDAY
AND ARE NOW EXPECTING RISES TO BELOW ACTION STAGE WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SCOTTSVILLE. BOTH THE NEW AND GREENBRIER WILL SEE
VERY MODEST RISES DUE TO THE SNOWPACK ABSORPTION AND ONLY SLOW
MELT OVER COMING DAYS. THE FORECAST POINTS SHOWING RFC GUIDANCE
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE ARE ALONG THE ROANOKE RIVER AT RANDOLPH...AND
DAN RIVER AT PACES AND SOUTH BOSTON.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS/KK
HYDROLOGY...PC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
955 AM EST WED FEB 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THEN WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY
THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE EASTERN TROF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO PIVOT
NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THE HIRESW-ARW EAST...RNK WRF ARW AND RAP
SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
THIS MORNING HRRR IS LESS IMPRESSED WITH SNOW SHOWERS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO OTHER HIRES SOLUTIONS. WILL MAINTAIN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN AN INCH. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SNOW WILL OCCUR ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF GREENBRIER COUNTY
OF WEST VIRGINIA. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST OBS AND MODEL
TRENDS FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD WITH
CURRENT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COULD BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER IN SOUTHSIDE WITH SUNSHINE. MORE CHANGES
LATER TODAY...
AS OF 655 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND CLOUDS WERE
ALREADY CLEARING OUT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE EASTERN TROF THIS
AFTERNOON THEN TROF AXIS MOVES EAST AND 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE EAST THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN TONIGHT.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE ARRIVE IN THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. BY MIDNIGHT...ENOUGH DRY AIR COMES IN TO END
THE UPSLOPE SHOWERS AND ON THURSDAY FOR CLEARING IN THE MOUNTAINS.
NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS FROM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY OR TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
ANY LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE GONE BY THURSDAY
MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOME
LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MAY STILL PERSIST UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WHEN THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING TOWARD THE MID TO UPPER 40S. AS THE HIGH SAGS SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON THURSDAY NIGHT...CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WINDS SHOULD ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP
LOWS BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BREEZE WILL PICK UP DURING FRIDAY...AS THE CWA
ENTERS A ZONE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD ALSO TAKE PLACE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. ALTHOUGH SOME PASSING CIRRUS CLOUDS MAY DAMPER THE FULL
POTENTIAL OF DIURNAL HEATING...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID
40S TO THE MID 50S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...A PASSING DISTURBANCE MOVING
EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO IN CANADA MAY LEAVE A TONGUE OF
SHALLOW MOISTURE STRETCHING SOUTHWARD OVER THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS. WITH LOWS HOLDING ABOVE FREEZING DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...ONLY A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE WESTERN
SLOPES. IN ADDITION...SOUTH WINDS SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT ALONG
THE HIGHEST RIDGETOPS...AND COULD POSSIBLY GUST UP TO 30 MPH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST TUESDAY
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WILL REMAIN SEPARATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL TRACK EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEASTERN US. ACROSS THE SOUTH...A STALLED
BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RAIN FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO SOUTH CAROLINA. FOR
THE IMMEDIATE AREA...A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED FRONT WILL PASS OVER
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MAY FALL ALONG WESTERN SLOPES...DRY ELSEWHERE. THIS
FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE PIEDMONT AND BECOME A LEE TROUGH. WITH
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 50S
AND 60S.
ON MONDAY...THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL SEND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM AND TRACK ALONG
THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE
LOW PRESSURE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BUCKLES THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY
NORTH...LINKING UP WITH THE LEE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVE-TILTED WITH CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS TRACKING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE COASTAL PIEDMONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR
ALL PRECIPITATION TO STAY LIQUID. THE FRONT WILL PASS TO THE EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 845 PM EST TUESDAY...
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AFTER SOME PATCHY FOG
AT KDAN WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT AT KDAN...KLYH AND KROA.
NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR CLOUDS TO
THE MOUNTAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPSLOPE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT ONLY
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL IMPACT KLWB OR KBLF.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
BY THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD...AND BRING A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. IT COULD
SPARK SOME MOUNTAIN RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 303 PM EST TUESDAY...
STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION (2-DAY) IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND RAIN
(MUCH OF IT FREEZING) HAS RANGED GENERALLY FROM 1 TO 2.5 INCHES
WITH UP TO 3+ INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF BEDFORD...EASTERN FRANKLIN
AND SOUTHERN BOTETOURT COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH THIS IS RADAR INDICATED
AND NOT WELL CORROBORATED BY RAIN GAGES. WITH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT RAIN FALLING ONTO AND INTO A SUBSTANTIAL SNOWPACK THE
HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT MUTED.
FORECASTS ON THE JAMES HAVE BEEN REDUCED SLIGHTLY FROM YESTERDAY
AND ARE NOW EXPECTING RISES TO BELOW ACTION STAGE WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SCOTTSVILLE. BOTH THE NEW AND GREENBRIER WILL SEE
VERY MODEST RISES DUE TO THE SNOWPACK ABSORPTION AND ONLY SLOW
MELT OVER COMING DAYS. THE FORECAST POINTS SHOWING RFC GUIDANCE
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE ARE ALONG THE ROANOKE RIVER AT RANDOLPH...AND
DAN RIVER AT PACES AND SOUTH BOSTON.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS/PM
HYDROLOGY...PC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
923 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
.UPDATE...
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND LACK OF PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM UPDATED
POPS/WEATHER TO REDUCE CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT ONCE THE INITIAL BAND OF
700 MB WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CLEARS EASTERN WISCONSIN
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH ONLY SOME
SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW
STRONG OMEGA WITH THE WARM ADVECTION BUT NO SATURATION BELOW
10-15K FT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE CLEAR BELOW 12K FT
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SE MN/NE IA.
NO CHANGE TO GOING WIND ADVISORY INITIAL 850 MB JET PASSING
THROUGH WITH VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATING 50-55KT WINDS BETWEEN 3K
FT AND 5K FT UNTIL WE LOST THE RELATIVELY LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHOWER BAND. WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT
MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...THEN SHOULD SEE SOUTHWESTERLY
55-60KT 850 MB WINDS/50KT 925 MB WINDS MIXING DOWN TO PRODUCE 45
TO 50 MPH GUSTS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR LOOKING ON TRACK IN SPITE OF 25 TO 30 KT
WINDS GUSTS AT THE SURFACE. VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATING 50-55KT
WINDS BETWEEN 3K FT AND 5K FT UNTIL WE LOST THE RELATIVELY LOWER
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWER BAND THAT IS PUSHING EAST OUT
OVER THE LAKE. WILL BE PULLING BACK TIMING ON MVFR CLOUD DECK.
LATEST RAPID UPDATE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR HOLDS IN UNTIL
09-12Z AND IS SUPPORTED BY LACK OF LOWER CLOUD COVER TO THE WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WILL ALSO REMOVE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
NO CHANGE TO GOING MARINE HEADLINES. SHEBOYGAN C-MAN HAS GUSTED TO
34 AND EXPECT OTHERS TO RISE FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT
EASING FRIDAY MORNING AS OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THEN RISE
WITH FREQUENT GALE GUSTS UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. ANOTHER SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED AFTER THE GALE WARNING EXPIRES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016/
SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION ALOFT ALONG WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND
SURFACE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS EVENING INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
THE BIGGER STORY TONIGHT/TOMORROW THOUGH WILL BE THE WARM
TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A WEDGE
OF WARM AIR WILL GET PUSHED INTO THE FORECAST AREA UNDER VERY STRONG
LOW LEVEL FLOW. MODEL TEMPERATURES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE...MAINLY
BECAUSE OF HOW THEY HANDLE THE CURRENT SNOW PACK. THE GFS AND
PARTICULARLY NAM ARE CLEARLY TOO COLD...OVERDOING THE EFFECT OF THE
SNOW IN SUCH A STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME. ADDITIONALLY...THERE
HAS BEEN MELTING TODAY...AND THERE WILL BE MORE MELTING TONIGHT AS
TEMPS HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY WARM. THE SNOWPACK IS NOT VERY
DEEP...ESPECIALLY UPSTREAM TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THUS TRENDED TEMPS FOR TOMORROW TOWARD THE MUCH
MILDER ECMWF...WHICH HAS A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT TEMPS.
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
EVENING AS A 70 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVERHEAD. SIMILAR TO TEMP
FORECAST...BIG QUESTION IS THE EXTENT OF MIXING THAT WILL OCCUR WITH
THE SNOWPACK. HAVING TEMPS ON THE MILD END OF GUIDANCE...THINKING
THERE WILL BE MUCH BETTER MIXING THAN NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING.
THIS RESULTS IN FORECAST PEAK GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH TOMORROW. THERE
IS A LITTLE CONCERN THAT IF MIXING IS EVEN BETTER THAN ANTICIPATED
THAT SOME HIGHER GUSTS MIGHT OCCUR. WILL BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
FAIRLY STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO EARLY FRI EVE WITH
THE WIND ADVISORY STILL IN EFFECT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND INTO SAT AS THE LARGE
989 LOW MOVES FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO QUEBEC CANADA. DESPITE THE
COLD ADVECTION OF FRI AFT-EVE...THE TEMPS WILL STILL BE MILD. LOWS
WILL FALL ONLY TO 35-40F WITH SOME SUNSHINE CONTRIBUTING TO THE
TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE 40S OVER THE FAR NRN CWA TO LOWER
50S IN THE FAR SOUTH FOR SAT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE
OVER THE AREA SAT NT WHILE A SFC TROUGH WILL EXTEND EWD FROM THE
SRN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH AND PASS ACROSS SRN WI ON SUN WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN
AND SNOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE SLIGHT
CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO SUN NT.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ON MON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION LATE. CURRENTLY HAVE A DRY FORECAST FOR
MON BUT SMALL CHANCES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IF ENOUGH LIFT AND
MOISTURE IS ATTAINED.
A SPLIT FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR TUE INTO THU WITH SRN WI BETWEEN
THE TWO NWLY JETS. SWLY SFC FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
FOR TUE AND TUE NT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT
EARLY WED. HIGH PRESSURE TO PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF WED AND INTO
THU. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
PERIOD.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
LOWER CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FRIDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH
FRIDAY...RESULTING IN PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EVEN
WITH HIGHER WINDS AT THE SURFACE...WINDS ALOFT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO
CONSIDER PERIODS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
MARINE...
KEPT TIMING OF GALE WARNING AS IS. COULD SEE A BIT OF A LULL IN
THE GALE FORCE WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP THOUGH BY MID/LATE FRIDAY MORNING
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
WAVES WILL BE HIGHEST FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
AN ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. WAVES WILL THEN EASE A BIT FRIDAY
AS WINDS BECOME OFFSHORE.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR WIZ046-047-
056>058-062>065-067>072.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CST FRIDAY FOR WIZ051-052-059-
060-066.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GEHRING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
331 PM CST WED FEB 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST WED FEB 17 2016
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS AND IOWA STARTS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST. THERE COULD BE A FEW
FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THAT BAND VIA VERY WEAK FRONTOGENESIS. DO
NOT HAVE THAT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS IT SEEMS LIKE A
SMALL PROBABILITY. THESE CLOUDS SIGNIFY THE FIRST WARM/MOIST AIR
PUSH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND GULF MOISTURE THEN STARTS TO MOVE TOWARD THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH. BY LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY...THE SURFACE-
BASED CLOUD LAYER WILL HAVE DEEPENED TO ABOUT 1.5-2 KMS...WHICH
STARTS TO REALLY INCREASE THE -DZ/-RA CHANCES FROM THE LAYER
SHOULD VERTICAL MOTION EXIST. WARM ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS AND
SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE INCREASE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD TRIGGER SOME PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION.
REALLY LIKE THE AGREEMENT ON THIS IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS...WITH
ABOUT 4-5 UB/S OF UPWARD MOTION IN THE 0-2KM LAYER...WITH A SLIGHT
PREFERENCE TOWARD A DEEPER MOIST LAYER IN WI. BY LATER THU
AFTERNOON...ONLY HAVE SOME NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND SUB-
FREEZING DEWPOINTS IN NORTHCENTRAL WI...SO HAVE KEPT FZDZ MENTION
THERE. THIS WOULD LAST THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WARMING
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SHOULD CONVERT ANY FZDZ TO DZ. HAVE RAISED
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA SOMEWHAT BUT PROBABLY
NOT ENOUGH...AND IF SIGNALS CONTINUE AS SEEN TODAY...THIS TREND
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE FOR DZ.
.LONG TERM...(LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST WED FEB 17 2016
SOME WARM ADVECTION AND WEAK LIFT CONTINUES INTO LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT AND DRIZZLE MAY BE AROUND AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST
WITH VIGOROUS OPEN CELL CONVECTION PER GOES IMAGERY. BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...MANY ATMOSPHERIC FORCING MECHANISMS ARE IN
PLACE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...PREFERABLE CYCLONIC SHEAR
SIDE OF VIGOROUS-WELL CURVED-COMPACT 125KT 300MB JET...300-500MB
QVECTOR CON/DIVERGENCE DIPOLE...LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
THETAE CONVERGENCE / MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE /850MB/...AND
POSSIBLY ELEVATED CAPE OF 100-300 J/KG PER 17.12Z NAM. GOT YOUR
FORCING CHECKLIST HANDY...CUZ THIS ONE HAS MANY CHECK BOXES.
BUT...INTERESTINGLY...THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE REALLY TARGETS
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTER AND NORTHWARD FOR PRECIPITATION /I-90/.
WHILE CHANCES WILL DECREASE SOUTHWARD...IT IS A CASE WHERE TOO
MANY MODEL FORCING SIGNALS DONT MATCH THE PRECIPITATION SOLUTIONS.
SO...HAVE BOUNCED RAIN CHANCES UP EVERYWHERE FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. WITH CAPE IN PLACE AND TROUGH
FORCING...HAVE LEFT THUNDER IN THE FORECAST NORTH NEAR/NORTH OF
I-90. WAVE INGREDIENTS ARE VIGOROUS PER THE MODEL ENVIRONMENT TO
SATURATE AND INITIATE THE INSTABILITY.
POST FRONTALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WEAKLY SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS AND
DRYING WILL MOVE IN WITH SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION KICKING IN LATER
IN THE DAY. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARENT HOG WILD WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER LAPSE RATES PER VERY WEAK COLD ADVECTION. A SURFACE PRESSURE
RISE/FALL COUPLET OF +5/-5 IN 3 HOURS MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
LEAVING THE AFTERNOON UNDER A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT. 17.12Z
GFS SEEMS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD /AGAIN/...AND
A BETTER CONSENSUS IS ABOUT 35-40 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER PROVIDED SUN IS SEEN. THUS...WIND FORECAST OF GUSTS TO 40-45
MPH SEEMS APPROPRIATE WITH A WIND ADVISORY POSSIBLY NEEDED FOR
THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE ON THIS
ADVISORY.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH AND SUNDAYS SYSTEM WILL MARK THE RETURN TO MORE NORTHWEST
FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SEEMS THERE IS SOME CONSISTENT
SIGNAL ON SUNDAY HAVING PRECIPITATION BUT WILL LET THE MODELS SORT
THEMSELVES OUT A BIT MORE BEFORE RAISING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SEEN IN THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST WED FEB 17 2016
THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD IS WHETHER MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THE FLOW
WILL BECOME SOUTH AHEAD A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A RIBBON OF MOISTURE/CLOUDS CURRENTLY
EXTENDS FROM NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA INTO ILLINOIS.
CEILINGS IN THIS MOISTURE FIELD ARE MVFR ACROSS THE DAKOTAS BUT
BECOME VFR FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS IOWA INTO ILLINOIS. THE 17.15Z
RAP AND HRRR AND THE 17.12Z NAM AND HI-RES NMM ALL INDICATE THESE
MVFR CEILINGS EXTEND ALL THE WAY ACROSS IOWA AND THEN WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE FLOW TURNS TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...THE 17.12Z HI-RES ARW AND 17.09Z SREF SEEM TO HAVE A
BETTER HANDLE ON CURRENT CLOUD TRENDS AND SUGGEST THE MVFR CLOUD
DECK MAY LIFT MORE INTO MINNESOTA AND GO BY TO THE NORTH OR IF THE
LOWER CEILINGS DO COME...IT MAY BE LATER THAN CURRENT EXPECTED.
FOR NOW...WILL NOT TOTALLY BACK OUT OF THE IDEA OF LOWER CLOUDS
COMING INTO THE TAF SITES...BUT WILL DELAY THE ARRIVAL BACK CLOSER
TO 12Z AND KEEP BOTH SITES IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST WED FEB 17 2016
MESSAGE HERE IS STILL THE SAME. SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT WILL TAKE
PLACE STARTING FRIDAY WHICH WILL CAUSE A 1-2 INCH EQUIVALENT
RAINFALL TO ENTER THE RIVERS FROM FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THE SNOW PACK
WILL NEED TO WARM A BIT THU/FRI BEFORE SIGNIFICANT MELTING...SO
SATURDAY SHOULD REALLY MELT THE SNOW PACK. SOME OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE COMPLETELY MELTS ITS SNOW...SO IT COULD HAPPEN THIS
WEEKEND FOR MANY.
OVERALL WE WILL LIKELY SEE RIVER RISES. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME
BREAKUP OF ICE ON STREAMS/RIVERS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW ICE
JAMS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1126 AM CST WED FEB 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST WED FEB 17 2016
FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE INCREASING DRIZZLE/
FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO SLIGHT
THUNDER CHANCE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH POTENT INCOMING LOW
PRESSURE.
CURRENT SURFACE MAP HAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
MN/CANADIAN BORDER...DOWN INTO IA/MO. THIS WAS PRODUCING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURE (AS OF 2 AM) RANGING FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI AND TEENS ELSEWHERE.
RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS
ON ACROSS THE AREA. WILL SEE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH TONIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS
MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY IN AHEAD OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION KICKS IN WITH FERVOR THURSDAY...
INCREASING STRATUS CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION. NAM BUFKIT SHOWING A
GOOD DRIZZLE SOUNDING AS LIFT/TURNING IN WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES
PLACE. COULD SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE MAINLY NORTHEAST OF I-94 BY
AFTERNOON...INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES HOVER IN THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 30S. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS THURSDAY ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA IN THE UPPER 30S/NEAR 40.
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MN...A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD TO
NEAR THE I-94 CORRIDOR BY MIDNIGHT. INCREASING 850MB TRANSPORT/LIFT
INTO AND OVER THE WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND EVEN A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS 0-3KM MUCAPE INCREASES
TO NEARLY 500J/KG. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...REACHING THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S BY
DAYBREAK.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST WED FEB 17 2016
FRIDAY WILL BE AN INTERESTING DAY WITH MULTIPLE METEOROLOGICAL
FACETS AS THE DEEP LOW/COLD FRONT MAKE THEIR WAY THROUGH THE REGION.
1. VERY MILD START TO THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
40S...POSSIBLY A FEW LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI. 2.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE SEEN IN THE MORNING WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. 3. WINDY BY AFTERNOON IN TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW/COLD AIR ADVECTION. PLAN ON
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40-45
MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA. CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED FOR AN EVENTUAL WIND
HEADLINE.
HIGH-ZONAL PACIFIC FLOW SETS UP FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK
TROUGH WITHIN THIS FLOW PRODUCES A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...MILD CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS SATURDAY MOSTLY
IN THE 40S AND UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S SUNDAY.
SLIGHT COOLING LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS MID LEVEL
TROUGH STARTS TO CARVE OUT ACROSS CANADA/CENTRAL CONUS. PLAN ON
HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST WED FEB 17 2016
THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD IS WHETHER MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THE FLOW
WILL BECOME SOUTH AHEAD A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A RIBBON OF MOISTURE/CLOUDS CURRENTLY
EXTENDS FROM NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA INTO ILLINOIS.
CEILINGS IN THIS MOISTURE FIELD ARE MVFR ACROSS THE DAKOTAS BUT
BECOME VFR FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS IOWA INTO ILLINOIS. THE 17.15Z
RAP AND HRRR AND THE 17.12Z NAM AND HI-RES NMM ALL INDICATE THESE
MVFR CEILINGS EXTEND ALL THE WAY ACROSS IOWA AND THEN WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE FLOW TURNS TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...THE 17.12Z HI-RES ARW AND 17.09Z SREF SEEM TO HAVE A
BETTER HANDLE ON CURRENT CLOUD TRENDS AND SUGGEST THE MVFR CLOUD
DECK MAY LIFT MORE INTO MINNESOTA AND GO BY TO THE NORTH OR IF THE
LOWER CEILINGS DO COME...IT MAY BE LATER THAN CURRENT EXPECTED.
FOR NOW...WILL NOT TOTALLY BACK OUT OF THE IDEA OF LOWER CLOUDS
COMING INTO THE TAF SITES...BUT WILL DELAY THE ARRIVAL BACK CLOSER
TO 12Z AND KEEP BOTH SITES IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...(FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST WED FEB 17 2016
SIGNIFICANT THAW WILL TAKE PLACE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...RELEASING
SNOWMELT INTO AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME BREAKUP
OF ICE ON STREAMS/RIVERS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW ICE JAMS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
949 PM PST THU FEB 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE IN THE NORTH BAY
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. A
RELATIVELY WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA ON FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO ALL AREAS BY SATURDAY MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS ALSO FORECAST FROM
SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PST THURSDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY
GRADUALLY DECREASED FROM MID-AFTERNOON ONWARD AND THEN PRETTY MUCH
ENDED AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT EXCEPT PERHAPS
IN THE NORTH BAY. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP
ACROSS NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY OVERNIGHT WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
APPROACHING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS NOT FORECAST TO BEGIN SPREADING
INTO THE NORTH BAY UNTIL ABOUT MID-MORNING FRIDAY. RAIN IS THEN
FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE SF BAY AREA
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MODELS AGREE THAT
THIS SYSTEM`S UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL TRACK TO THE ENE AS IT
MOVES INLAND ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY AND DISSIPATING AS IT PRESSES SOUTH
THROUGH THE SF BAY AREA LATE ON FRIDAY. THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS
BOTH INDICATE THAT MEASURABLE RAIN WILL NOT MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER
SOUTH OF SAN MATEO AND ALAMEDA COUNTIES BY LATE FRIDAY BEFORE THE
FRONT WASHES OUT. THUS...MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL PROBABLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM. RAIN
TOTALS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
0.10-0.50" IN THE NORTH BAY. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE
ARE FORECAST TO PICK UP ONLY 0.15" OR LESS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE A FACTOR WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS AND
COASTAL AREAS FROM SAN MATEO COUNTY NORTH MAY SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH FROM LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER BEHIND THE DISSIPATING FRONT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING...BUT DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO NEARLY
ALL AREAS BY LATE EVENING.
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO BE DRY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER CALIFORNIA. THE RIDGE IS
THEN FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN DAYTIME
TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 70S BY MONDAY. BALMY CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE AN
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE COAST. THE GFS AND CANADIAN BOTH SHOW THAT SYSTEM
WEAKENING RAPIDLY AS IT COMES UP AGAINST THE WEST COAST
RIDGE...AND THEN WASHING OUT COMPLETELY PRIOR TO REACHING THE
COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER IN
PUSHING THAT SYSTEM INLAND WITH ENOUGH STRENGTH TO GENERATE
LIGHT RAINFALL IN OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. BEYOND
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS AGREE THAT DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
MOST OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT BEST POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS LATE NEXT FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 9:49 PM PST THURSDAY...CURRENTLY THE IR
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS DYNAMIC TONIGHT SO THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MIXING TO PREVENT FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH
WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO THE BAY AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH BKN-OVC030 AND LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING BY 2000Z
FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 1400Z AT WHICH POINT MVFR CIGS WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO IMPROVE TO
VFR BY 2200Z FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 09:36 PM PST THURSDAY...A STEEP...MODERATELY SIZED
WESTERLY SWELL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE WATERS. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO EASE FRIDAY EVENING...REMAINING RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY.
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 3 AM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 9 PM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 9 PM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
859 PM PST THU FEB 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE IN THE NORTH BAY
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. A
RELATIVELY WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA ON FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO ALL AREAS BY SATURDAY MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS ALSO FORECAST FROM
SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PST THURSDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY
GRADUALLY DECREASED FROM MID-AFTERNOON ONWARD AND THEN PRETTY MUCH
ENDED AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT EXCEPT PERHAPS
IN THE NORTH BAY. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP
ACROSS NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY OVERNIGHT WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
APPROACHING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS NOT FORECAST TO BEGIN SPREADING
INTO THE NORTH BAY UNTIL ABOUT MID-MORNING FRIDAY. RAIN IS THEN
FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE SF BAY AREA
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MODELS AGREE THAT
THIS SYSTEM`S UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL TRACK TO THE ENE AS IT
MOVES INLAND ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY AND DISSIPATING AS IT PRESSES SOUTH
THROUGH THE SF BAY AREA LATE ON FRIDAY. THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS
BOTH INDICATE THAT MEASURABLE RAIN WILL NOT MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER
SOUTH OF SAN MATEO AND ALAMEDA COUNTIES BY LATE FRIDAY BEFORE THE
FRONT WASHES OUT. THUS...MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL PROBABLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM. RAIN
TOTALS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
0.10-0.50" IN THE NORTH BAY. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE
ARE FORECAST TO PICK UP ONLY 0.15" OR LESS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE A FACTOR WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS AND
COASTAL AREAS FROM SAN MATEO COUNTY NORTH MAY SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH FROM LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER BEHIND THE DISSIPATING FRONT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING...BUT DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO NEARLY
ALL AREAS BY LATE EVENING.
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO BE DRY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER CALIFORNIA. THE RIDGE IS
THEN FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN DAYTIME
TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 70S BY MONDAY. BALMY CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE AN
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE COAST. THE GFS AND CANADIAN BOTH SHOW THAT SYSTEM
WEAKENING RAPIDLY AS IT COMES UP AGAINST THE WEST COAST
RIDGE...AND THEN WASHING OUT COMPLETELY PRIOR TO REACHING THE
COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER IN
PUSHING THAT SYSTEM INLAND WITH ENOUGH STRENGTH TO GENERATE
LIGHT RAINFALL IN OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. BEYOND
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS AGREE THAT DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
MOST OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT BEST POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS LATE NEXT FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 3:50 PM PST THURSDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING PLENTY OF COOL AIR CUMULUS PASSING OVER
THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET AS CONVECTIVE PROCESSES LOOSE THEIR ENERGY. THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH MIXING IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAT WE SHOULD NOT HAVE TO
WORRY ABOUT LOW CLOUDS OR FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY MORNING
WHICH WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO THE BAY AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH BKN-OVC030 AND LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING BY 2000Z
FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 8:34 PM PST THURSDAY...A STEEP...MODERATELY SIZED
WESTERLY SWELL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE WATERS. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO EASE FRIDAY EVENING...REMAINING RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY.
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 3 AM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 9 PM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 9 PM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1045 PM MST THU FEB 18 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MST THU FEB 18 2016
SYSTEM IS EJECTING EASTWARD ACROSS WY/CO WITH CORE OF STRONG SFC
PRESSURE RISES ACROSS NORTHEAST CO. WINDS HAVE COME UP WITHIN THE
PAST HOUR ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...SPECIFICALLY DOWN AROUND
WALSENBURG...AND IN THE AIR FORCE ACADEMY SENSORS. THIS IS IN
LINE WITH HRRR RUNS WHICH SUGGEST THERE IS STILL A WINDOW FOR HIGH
WIND POTENTIAL THROUGH 12Z PARTICULARLY ALONG/WEST OF I-25.
THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SET OF HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS. -KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 722 PM MST THU FEB 18 2016
QUICK UPDATE TO TAKE DOWN THE RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS THE
PLAINS WHERE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE INCREASED ABOVE THE 15
PERCENT CRITICAL THRESHOLD. WINDS HAVE DECREASED SOME
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE
AGAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE MYP HAS REPORTED A 98 MPH
GUST WITHIN THE LAST 30 MINUTES. THIS IS IN THE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS.
MSAS 3 HR SFC PRESSURE RISES ARE A QUITE IMPRESSIVE 5-10 MB
ACROSS NORTHWEST CO...AND AS THIS CORE CONTINUES TO MOVE
EASTWARD...THERE MAY BE ANOTHER WINDOW FOR HIGH WINDS TO
SPILL DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES LATER TONIGHT. LATEST HRRR
POINTS TO THIS WINDOW BETWEEN 03Z-07Z WITH GREATEST CONCERN
AREAS DOWN AROUND THE COLORADO CITY TO TRINIDAD AREAS. CURRENT
HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS LOOK GOOD FOR NOW SO WILL MAINTAIN. -KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 531 PM MST THU FEB 18 2016
UPDATED TO SPREAD HIGH WIND WARNINGS INTO EASTERN FREMONT AND
PUEBLO COUNTY...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF I-25. TROF
AXIS IS CROSSING THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND STRONG DOWNWARD
FORCING BEHIND THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE THESE STRONG WINDS
INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH RES MODELS
STILL INDICATING PEAK PERIOD FOR WIND GUSTS WILL BE NOW THROUGH
AROUND 03Z...THEN THREAT AREA PULLS BACK WESTWARD TOWARDS THE
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. -KT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MST THU FEB 18 2016
PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT TERM METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS FOR THE
FORECAST DISTRICT INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO STRONG
WINDS...TEMPERATURES...NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...BLOWING DUST POTENTIAL AND POPS/HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW.
MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL MID TO LATE FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES AS NOTED BY AN
ALL TIME TYING FEBRUARY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 81F AT WFO
PUEBLO...STRONG WINDS AS EVIDENCED BY RECENT WIND GUSTS OF 84 MPH AT
MONARCH PASS AND 82 MPH WIND GUSTS NEAR SAN ISABEL IN COMBINATION
WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY SKIES WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
BASED ON RECENT REAL-TIME DATA AND INCOMING COMPUTER SIMULATIONS
HAVE RECENTLY EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING TO ALSO INCLUDE PUBLIC
ZONES 78/79/84 AND 85 AS WELL AS EXTENDING ALL HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS
TO 12Z FRIDAY. PLEASE NOTE THAT OVER EL PASO COUNTY...THE HIGHEST
WINDS SHOULD BE NOTED ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 25. IN
ADDITION...WILL ALLOW THE RED FLAG WARNING TO CONTINUE OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE AGAIN ANTICIPATED OVER FAR
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT AGAIN BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO POST ANY
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.
ALSO...AS UPPER DISTURBANCE CENTERED NORTH OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT...STILL PROJECT THAT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING
SNOW SHOULD BE NOTED OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...FAVORING SECTIONS
OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES WHERE LOCALIZED SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3
INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED FROM SUNSET TONIGHT UNTIL SUNRISE FRIDAY.
FINALLY...WILL ALSO DEPICT AREAS OF BLOWING DUST OVER SEVERAL
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO TONIGHT IN COMBINATION WITH
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MST THU FEB 18 2016
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
OVERNIGHT TEMPS A BIT MILD IN SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THE DRY WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ON SATURDAY...WITH
SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER OVER THE
SERN PLAINS...THE SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY.
HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH 60S TO
AROUND 70 OVR THE SERN PLAINS AND 50S IN THE HIGH VALLEYS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
MT INTO SD AND NE...WHICH THEN SENDS A FRONT INTO ERN CO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A BIT BREEZY FROM THE
NORTHEAST SUN MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACRS THE SERN PLAINS. THE
WEATHER WL STILL BE DRY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT TEMPS WL BE A
BIT COOLER.
SUNDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS THE STATE AND
IS FORECAST TO BRING SOME SNOW TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. IT COULD ALSO
BRING SOME LIGHT PCPN TO SOME OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT WILL
LEAVE THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. UNSETTLED NW FLOW ALOFT WL
BE OVR THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND PROBABLY BRINGING SOME MORE PCPN OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE FORECAST MODELS THEN HAVE A STRONGER SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WHICH
WOULD BRING CHANCES FOR PCPN TO MUCH OF THE AREA...AND HIGH TEMPS ON
TUE SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE PLAINS...AND AROUND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE HIGH VALLEYS.
ON WEDNESDAY DRY WEATHER RETURNS WITH HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND TO A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE. FOR THU...THE ECMWF SHOWS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH OVER CO...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PCPN. AT THE SAME TIME...THE GFS SHOWS A WEAKER SYSTEM STAYING TO
OUR NORTH AND EAST...WITH DRY WX OVR THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1012 PM MST THU FEB 18 2016
STRONG SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THREE
TERMINALS TONIGHT BEFORE DECREASING BY FRIDAY MORNING. GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 10Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOZLEY
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ058-060-072>075-
078>088.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...MOZLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1143 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 852 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
The main issue for the next 18 to 24 hours will be the strong
surface winds. Low pressure advancing across the Dakotas into
northern Minnesota by 12z tonight will cause a cold front to reach
western Illinois. During that time, the pressure gradient across
Illinois will remain the same, with only a rotation of the
orientation of the pressure pattern. The result will be a shift
in the surface winds from southeast to the southwest as wind
speeds remain 20 to 25 mph gusting to 35 mph overnight. Starting around
12z tomorrow and continuing through late morning, a 60-70kt 925mb
jet max will become positioned from SW to NE across southeastern
Illinois, putting our strongest wind gusts east of I-55. Some
gusts east of I-55 toward mid-morning tomorrow could reach near
50 mph at times.
Cloud cover overnight will generally remain with thin high
clouds, which usually allows for chilly low temps this time of
year. However, the strong southerly winds will prevent temps from
dropping, and most areas will see slowly warming temps the rest of
tonight as readings reach the mid 40s NE of CMI and the low 50s SW
of SPI.
Main updates this evening were to temps, winds, and sky grids.
Updated forecast info will be available shortly.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
Southeast winds gusting over 30 mph at times this afternoon, helping
to boost temperatures well into the 40s. Have seen some 50 degree
readings west of Springfield early this afternoon and 60s are fairly
widespread across central and western Missouri.
Not looking for much of a drop off in temperatures tonight, with
steady or rising temperatures from about 9 pm onward. Low level jet
really ramps up during the evening, with the RAP mode forecasting
2000 foot winds of 60-65 knots this evening and around 70 knots
after midnight over the southeast third of the forecast area. This
will help keep the wind gusts up and will go with gusts 30-35 mph in
most areas north of I-70. Stream of mid/high clouds will continue to
affect primarily the northern half of the forecast area tonight,
with some increase over the remainder of the area late tonight as
the cold front approaches.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
High pressure to the east, combined with a low pressure area to the
northeast will tighten the gradient considerably, and along with the
very warm air, will bring much stronger winds into the region than
this afternoon. Southwest winds in the morning are expected to
increase with sustained winds between 25 and 30 mph, with gusts of
near 40mph. These strong winds will continue into the afternoon, but
begin to taper off late afternoon after the dry trough moves through
and winds switch to more west-southwest. However, will keep the
advisory going through 00z tomorrow. Wind Advisory will be for the
whole area as well. Once this trough comes through Friday, zonal
flow will control the area through the weekend.
Another low pressure area will develop in the south and move toward
the area for the weekend. Models differ on how far north the low
pressure area gets, with the ECMWF furthest north. GFS and NAM are
furthest south and therefore much drier over the CWA. However, going
forecast for now is pcpn across the CWA Sat night and then just in
the southeast for Sunday. With model uncertainty still, will keep
forecast as is for now...which does include likely pops in the
southeast Sat night.
Temps will start out very warm tomorrow and should continue into Sat
ahead of the pcpn. Then temps cool as clouds and pcpn move through
the area Sunday. Temps next three days will be very above normal.
Extended period looks to be very dry as flow remains somewhat zonal
through the middle of next week. Extended models have some
disagreement on chances of pcpn Wed night and Thur, but best to keep
things dry for now until models work things out. Temps will be
cooler than this weekend, but still be slightly above normal. Temps
will be warmer early in the extended, then decrease some toward the
end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
A tight pressure gradient across Illinois will dominate the
aviation weather over the next 18 hours. Deep low pressure is
expected to progress from the Dakotas to eastern Lake Superior
between 06z tonight and 00z tomorrow. As it does, a weak cold
front will push across Illinois. The main result locally will be
for wind directions to change from southeast the rest of tonight,
to southwest after sunrise tomorrow, and due west by mid
afternoon, after FROPA.
The strongest wind speeds over the next 12 hours look to be
between 14z and 18z tomorrow, when the strongest period of 850mb
LLJ winds (70-80kts) will be across our southeast counties. The
location of that jet max should keep the highest surface wind
gusts of 45kt near our eastern terminals of DEC and CMI, and
possibly BMI. Gusts should be less intense during the afternoon,
but still strong around 35-38kt. Tomorrow evening, directions will
return to the southwest as wind speeds diminish quickly after
sunset.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Friday for ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
350 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM LATER TODAY AND
SATURDAY.
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY AND STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME
COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY
THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR REGION AS LOW LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WAS MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THIS WAS COMBINED
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET WAS ACROSS OUR REGION AND WINDS OF 60 TO 70 KNOTS WERE OCCURRING
AT 925 MB. WITH MIXING LATER TODAY BUFKIT INDICATES SURFACE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 40 KNOTS SHOULD OCCUR AND WILL GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY ALL AREAS TODAY.
DELAYED THE START TIME SLIGHTLY SINCE THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MIXING PRIOR TO MID
MORNING. AFTER THAT WILL GO WITH WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 45
TO 50 MPH SOME AREAS.
USUALLY WITH STRONG WINDS...WARM ADVECTION AND MIXING...MOS TEMPERATURES ARE TOO
COOL AND WILL GO CLOSER TO RAP AND HRR SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH JUST ABOUT ALL
AREAS REACHING INTO THE 60S...EXCEPT NEAR 60 IN THE NORTHEAST TODAY.
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA LATER TONIGHT AND STALL OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS SATURDAY.
WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE...WILL GO A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS NUMBERS.
WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MOST AREAS WITH UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST
FOR SATURDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STALLED FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT. BOTH EUROPEAN AND GEMNH MODELS ARE MUCH WETTER THAN
GFS AND NAM AND TRENDED WETTER MOST AREAS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS CENTRAL AND SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST EARLY SUNDAY. WENT WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ELSEWHERE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND ACROSS FAR EAST SUNDAY EVENING.
MODELS INDICATE TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME COOLER ALL AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTER
THIS SURFACE LOW MOVES BY AND IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TO START OFF THE LONG TERM.
A FLAT MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL GIVE WAY TO A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MAKING ITS WAY TO THE EAST
COAST. THIS TROUGH BRINGS A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GULF STATES AND
THEN UP THE EAST COAST...WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY KEEP CENTRAL
INDIANA DRY WITH FORCING AND MOISTURE FOCUSED FIRST SOUTH AND THEN
EAST OF THE AREA. INITIALIZATION POPS SPLASHED SLIGHT CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED BUT ELIMINATED ALL BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE FORCING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL SYSTEM GETS THE CLOSEST TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS
IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE RELATIVELY NEUTRAL FLOW PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 190600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM EST THU FEB 18 2016
TWEAKED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. ALTHOUGH GUSTS HAVE DROPPED OFF
CURRENTLY EXPECT THEM TO PICK BACK UP AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
DISCUSSED BELOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL LEAVE THEM IN.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED NEAR THE TOP OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION
AROUND 015 THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY AS THE CORE OF A
65-70 KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVERHEAD BETWEEN 190900Z-191500Z. THREAT
FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DIMINISH LATER IN THE MORNING FRIDAY AS
THIS INVERSION DISSIPATES.
OTHERWISE...THERE MAY BE SOME LIMITED CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AROUND 040 BY
THE MIDDAY HOURS ON FRIDAY. FREQUENT SURFACE WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS
FROM 140-160 DEGREES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO 200-220 DEGREES BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 35-40 KTS PROBABLE BASED ON EXPECTED MIXING HEIGHTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS/CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
318 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 316 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
An amplified upper trough was lifting east-northeast across NE
during the early morning hours. A strong LLJ of 60 KTS ahead of
the the 850mb trough was shifting east into western MO. A cold
front was moving east into north central KS. Westerly winds have
increased to 30 to 35 MPH with gusts of 45 MPH behind the front
and will remain above wind advisory criteria across north central
KS through 12Z.
There will be weak CAA through the day but westerly surface winds
will keep temperature mild with most areas reaching the upper 60s to
lower 70s. West-northwest winds will gradually diminish through the
afternoon hours as the stronger 850mb winds shift eastward into the
mid MS river valley by 00Z SAT.
Tonight, light westerly winds will back to the southwest and south
through the night. Overnight lows will drop into the upper 30s
across north central KS with lower to mid 40s across east central
KS.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 316 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
Westerly flow aloft carries a series of weak embedded disturbances
while a cold front shifts winds to the north during the day
Saturday. Moisture pooling ahead of the boundary with some
steepening of mid level lapse rates could develop a few
thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon into early evening. In
addition, shear profiles are decent at 45 to 50 kts. Best thunder
chances are towards Missouri, while across the CWA the current and
previous runs of the NAM are the only model developing precip as
far north as Topeka. I have a low end slight chc mention for TOP
however believe the better chances reside over Anderson, Coffey, and
Franklin counties.
A cooling trend begins on Sunday as a modified airmass drops
highs Sunday back to near 60 degrees. As an upper trough passes east
of the area, cooler temps come in on the backside with readings in
the 50s through the week. Overnight lows are generally near the
freezing mark. Main change to the extended was to add chances for
rain Monday evening as a progressive shortwave trough dives
southeast through the plains. While forcing centers along a sfc cold
front from the northwest, the wave itself is disorganized with both
the GFS and ECMWF developing scattered areas of qpf over the region.
Profilers suggest above freezing temps at 850 mb while sfc temps are
progged a few degrees above freezing, resulting in rain as most
likely precip type.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1121 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
Strong winds are the main concern with southwest winds around
22kts with gusts to around 35 kts expected ahead of an approaching
frontal boundary. LLWS is expected with strong winds aloft near
60 kts through 11Z. Winds are expected to shift to the west
northwest behind the front and may be gusty with gusts to around
30 kts for a few hours. Winds will remain west and gradually
decrease to less than 10 kts after 22Z. VFR conditions are
expected through the period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
The RAP model mixes out the low-level moisture across the CWA during
the mid morning hours and keeps low dewpoints in the teens through
the afternoon hours. I went a bit higher than the RAP model for
dewpoints but RHs will drop to or below 20 percent across much of
the CWA during the late morning hours. The steep dry adiabatic lapse
rates to 840-820 MB should transport higher winds towards the
surface, with wind speeds of 15-25 MPH and gusts to 30 to 35 MPH
into the early afternoon hours. As the stronger flow aloft shifts
northeast of the area this afternoon, the winds will diminish
through the mid and late afternoon hours. Even though the sustain
winds may diminish to 10 to 20 MPH during the mid afternoon hours
the 25 MPH wind gust may continue due to the deep mixing.
Given wind gusts greater than 25 MPH during the late morning hours
into the mid afternoon hours, RH`s falling into the upper teens
during the late morning and afternoon hours, and dry fuels I will
issue a red flag warning for the entire CWA from 10 AM this morning
through 5 PM this afternoon.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM CST this
afternoon for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...53
FIRE WEATHER...Gargan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
313 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
WAA/SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NRN PLAINS. 500 MB RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED JUST
EAST OF MICHIGAN...MAKING WAY FOR INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION AS A 500 MB
TROUGH SLIDES JUST EAST OF THE NRN ROCKIES. INITIAL WAA PRECIP WING
IS MAKING ITS WAY NE OUT OF OUR CWA ATTM. HIGHEST POPS HAVE REMAINED
ACROSS OUR NRN CWA...WITH LESS PRECIP TO THE SOUTH DUE TO DRIER LOW
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF M-32. PRECIP TYPE HAS BEEN
MIXED...SWITCHING FROM SNOW TO SLEET TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN BACK TO
SNOW AT TIMES WITHIN HEAVIER BURST OF PRECIP. AT THIS POINT...ONLY
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME DRIZZLE HAVE DEVELOPED IN ITS
WAKE OVER NRN WISCONSIN AND WRN UPR MICHIGAN. ADDITIONAL AREAS OF
RAIN ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE NRN PLAINS IN THE VCNTY OF THE SURFACE
LOW. LOTS OF QUESTIONS FOR THE DAY AHEAD...INCLUDING POPS...PRECIP
TYPE...TEMPS AND WIND SPEEDS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE STACKED LOW AS IT PUSHES OUT OF THE NRN
PLAINS AND THRU NRN MICHIGAN.
THIS HIGHLY DYNAMIC SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE UPSTREAM WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD THRU CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY AND RIGHT
THRU THE STRAITS THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED AS A 500 MB LOW CLOSES OFF DIRECTLY UNDER THE SURFACE LOW.
NAM AND RAP BOTH SUGGEST ONLY LIGHT PRECIP THRU MUCH OF TODAY...WITH
HIGHEST POPS REMAIN ACROSS OUR NRN CWA. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR BOTH AT LOW AND MID LEVELS
THAT WILL LIMIT PRECIP PRODUCTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STILL...CANNOT
IGNORE WHAT IS HAPPENING UPSTREAM...AND WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
DURING THE MORNING INCREASING TO CATEGORICAL THIS AFTERNOON AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVE JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW CENTER. PRECIP TYPE
WILL REMAIN QUESTIONABLE THIS MORNING PER MODEL SOUNDINGS BEFORE LOW
LEVEL WAA BOOSTS SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING BY AROUND MIDDAY OR
SO. WILL MAINTAIN WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE NRN HALF OF OUR CWA
FROM M-32 NORTHWARD THRU ERN UPR MICHIGAN UNTIL NOON. TEMPS SHOULD
HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING BY THIS TIME.
REGARDING WIND POTENTIAL TODAY...IN COORDINATION WITH GRR AND DTX...
WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR OUR SRN TIER OF COUNTIES AS WELL AS
OUR FAR SW COUNTIES FROM LEELANAU TO GRAND TRAVERSE AND BENZIE. LOW
LEVEL WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SE TO THE S/SW BY AFTERNOON AND FURTHER
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING LOW. STABILITY MAY BE A LIMITING
FACTOR REGARDING JUST HOW MUCH OF THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT WE MAY BE
ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY KEEP SOME OF THE HIGHER WINDS AT
BAY. REGARDLESS...WILL ISSUE THE ADVISORY FOR THE ABOVE AREAS WITH
SOME SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH EXPECTED AT TIMES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
(2/20)SATURDAY...AS THE 500 MB SPEED MAX MOVES TO THE EAST OUT OF
LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING, THE FORCING GOES WITH IT, AS DOES
THE 700-500 MB LAYER MOISTURE. SO HAVE THE SNOW IN THE MORNING
DIMINISHING WITH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAIN/SNOW MIX, AS THE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER PART OF THE PROFILES
BEGIN TO WARM WITH THE MAX SFC TEMPERATURES IN E UPPER GETTING TO
THE MID 30S. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING, BRINGING THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN. HOWEVER, THERE
IS SOME DISAGREEMENT TO THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR INITIALLY. THE ECMWF
AND THE NAM BOTH HAVE THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -7C AND -8C
WHILE THE GFS IS GETTING TO AROUND -10C. WITH THE WATER TEMPERATURES
AROUND 3C IN BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN, AM NOT SURE THAT
THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF LAKE EFFECT EVEN IN E UPPER UNTIL
CLOSER TO 12Z. SO MINOR AMOUNTS IF ANY OVERNIGHT IN E UPPER.
(2/21)SUNDAY...DURING THE MORNING THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ON ALL THE
MODELS IS AROUND -13C, BUT NOW WE HAVE A LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE 850-
700 MB LAYER WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH WITH THE LAYER RH<20%. SO
THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL BE THERE WITH THE INSTABILITY, BUT
THE AMOUNTS WILL BE MINOR AS THE MOISTURE ISN`T THERE. THE MOISTURE
DOESN`T GET ANY BETTER INTO THE NIGHT AS THE 850-700 MB LAYER RH
CONTINUES AT LESS THAN 30% AND THE SFC HIGH APPROACHES, MAKING THE
FLOW MORE AND MORE ANTICYCLONIC. SO WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT, ALTHOUGH IT WOULD MORE
LIKE FLURRIES IF WE GET ANYTHING AT ALL.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
THE 3-7 DAY TRENDS LOOK LIKE WE ARE EVOLVING TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN FROM THE MORE ZONAL FLOW DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT
WEEK. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE END OF THE ZONAL FLOW AS A 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND THE
500 MB VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY REINFORCES THE TROUGH BY HAVING A
SPOKE OF ENERGY THAT ROTATES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS JUST BEHIND
IT ON TUESDAY. THIS SETS UP THE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ALMOST THE LAST TWO YEARS, EXCEPT
DURING THE TIME THAT THE EL NINO PATTERN HAD BEEN DOMINATED
(PRIMARILY NOV-EARLY JAN). SO THE MAIN IDEA WILL BE EVOLUTION OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EST THU FEB 18 2016
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR OVERNIGHT AS
WIDESPREAD MIXED PRECIP CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION IN
ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP IN THE NRN PLAINS. ALL PRECIP
SHOULD BECOME PLAIN RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE BY AROUND MIDDAY AND WILL
REMAIN SO THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LLWS WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE FOR ALL
NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES THRU MIDDAY AS WELL...WITH GUSTY SE
SURFACE WINDS AS WELL.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REACH GALE WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS MOST OF OUR
NEARSHORE AREAS TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS RIGHT THRU THE STRAITS THIS EVENING. MIXED PRECIP THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME ALL LIGHT RAIN BY AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES OF
RAIN CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT AS WARM AIR SURGES NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE LOW CENTER. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCA CRITERIA.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ020-025-026-031>036-041-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ008-015>019-
021>024.
LH...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LHZ346>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LHZ345.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ341.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
400 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
WIND GUSTS AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO PRESENT A CHALLENGE FOR
TODAY. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND THERE
IS NO SILVER BULLET THAT WILL GIVE THE ANSWER AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
SURFACE WINDS WILL TAP INTO THE HIGH WIND SPEEDS ALOFT. THE ONE THING
THAT IS A BIT CONCERNING IS THE WIDESPREAD OBS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NEBRASKA WITH WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 KTS...BUT THESE LOCATIONS
HAVE ZERO SNOWPACK AND AS A RESULT HAVE A MUCH LESS STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER. HOWEVER...THEY DID OCCUR IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT WHICH
SAYS SOMETHING ABOUT THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS OFF THE RAP ARE STARTING TO CAPTURE THE PERIOD OF
STRONG WINDS...AND INDEED THE MIXED LAYER DOES SHOW 50KTS ATOP THE
CHANNEL IN WEST CENTRAL MN WHERE THERE IS LESS SNOWPACK AND SURFACE
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S. MEANWHILE...WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MN THE POTENTIAL TO
REALIZE THE WINDS ALOFT DECREASES.
VERY RARELY DOES MN AND WI MATCH THE WINDS OBSERVED UPSTREAM OVER
THE DAKOTAS...AND FOR NOW FEEL THAT THIS WILL BE NO DIFFERENT UNLESS
A RAIN SHOWER DEVELOPS AND BRINGS THE STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. FEEL A HIGH END WIND ADVISORY WILL COVER THIS EVENT...BUT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AN UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING IS
NEEDED. ITS CERTAINLY IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. LOOKING
AHEAD...EXPECT DRY WEATHER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
MILD TEMPERATURES ARE STILL THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT DURING THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AN ABSENCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
OUTSIDE OF MINIMAL SNOW CHANCES ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
TEMPS WILL REDUCE BACK DOWN A FEW DEGRESS FOR SATURDAY...AS
HEIGHTS LOWER SLIGHTLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ARE ANTICIPATED. THIS
WAVE IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE...BUT WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
WARRANT A 20-30 POP. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE...WITH NEAR-
FREEZING TEMPS ILLUSTRATING THE NEED FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MENTION.
NEXT WEEK THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE TROUGHING OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL MEAN NORTHWEST FLOW AND MILD
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BACK TOWARD OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
ANOTHER WAVE IS FORECAST STREAM OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HAVE
INCLUDED 20 POPS AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE LARGE DIFFERENCES THAT
EXIST REGARDING THE TIMING/STRENGTH/EXISTENCE OF THIS WAVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
IFR CEILINGS ARE HOLDING OFF A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...SO MOVED BACK THE TIMING IN THE 06Z ISSUANCE OF THE
TAFS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET...SO WIND SHEAR SEEMS WARRANTED AS WELL. EXPECT WESTERLY
WINDS BY MID DAY FRIDAY...WITH GUSTS 20-30KTS CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
KMSP...
MVFR CEILINGS ARE JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF KMSP...BUT THESE MAY
NOT MAKE IT TO KMSP UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING. NOT ANTICIPATING
MUCH PRECIP SINCE HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO PLACE THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST. IF CLOUDS DO DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD CLEAR
BY 18Z...WITH WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND WNW AT 10G20 KTS.
SUN...VFR/MVFR WITH -RA/-SN POSSIBLE. WIND NW AT 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND SW AT 10G15KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR WIZ026-028.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ047-054>056-064-
065-067-073>075-082-083-091-092.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ076-077-084-085-
093.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR MNZ078.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
329 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH WINDS ARE STILL UNDERWAY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. VALENTINE ASOS GUSTED TO 68 MPH AT AROUND 2 AM CST.
PIERRE SD...76 MPH AT AROUND 3 AM CST.
THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS ON TRACK AND CAN OPERATE AS SCHEDULED. SOME
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61 COULD BE CLEARED IN AN HOUR OR
TWO...CONDITIONS PERMITTING...AS THE PRESSURE RISES ARE BEGINNING TO
SUBSIDE ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE.
SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL TODAY AND WINDS WILL RELAX MOSTLY ACROSS SWRN
NEB. WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE SANDHILLS...20 TO
30 MPH. WINDS AT 700MB DIMINISH TO 40 TO 50 KT BY MID AFTERNOON.
DEEP VERTICAL MIXING CONTINUES TODAY TO NEAR 700MB IN THE RAP
SOUNDINGS AT VALENTINE AND NORTH PLATTE. UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOMENTUM DOWNWARD WITH THE MIXING. DOUBLE
BARREL SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL COLESCE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES
AIDING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...MAINLY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS TODAY RISE INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 USING THE
WARMEST GUIDANCE.
LIGHT WINDS DEVELOP ALL AREAS TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
MID RANGE...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
TEMPERATURES. A FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SHORTWAVE SOON AFTER. AT 850HPA...SOUTHWEST FLOW AND TEMPS NEAR 11C
AT 06Z SATURDAY TRANSITIONS TO NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPS
AROUND 8C AT 00Z SUNDAY. TRENDED TOWARD MAV AND ECM GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPS BUT STILL 3-5F LOWER THAN THEY SUGGEST. CONCERNS ARE EARLIER
SWITCH TO NORTH WINDS AND EARLIER ONSET OF CLOUDS. KEPT PRECIP
MENTION OUT OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING.
SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WHAT WILL LIKELY BE TOO
MUCH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH MOISTURE WITH A VERY BRIEF PERIOD WHERE LIFT AND MOISTURE
COINCIDE BELOW 700HPA...BUT WITH CONFIDENCE LOW AND QPF WOULD BE
VERY LIMITED...JUST DECIDED TO STAY DRY. MADE LITTLE ADJUSTMENT TO
SUNDAY MAX TEMPS AS CONTINUED CAA AT 850HPA...DROPPING TO NEAR 0C BY
00Z MONDAY...SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. MAY BE BREEZY
SUNDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A WELL MIXED LAYER TO
800HPA WHERE WINDS ARE NEAR 25KTS FROM NAM SOUNDINGS.
LONG RANGE...MONDAY TO THURSDAY...QUASI ZONAL FLOW AT 500HPA TURNS
NEARLY MERIDIONAL BY WEDNESDAY WITH A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. AS SHOWN BY THE EURO...AND THEN NORTHWEST FLOW BY
THURSDAY. SCALED BACK PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. EURO AND GFS MAINLY CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING BEST
FORCING AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH...BUT NEAR SURFACE DRY AIR MAY
BE AN ISSUE AGAIN. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT TEMP ADVECTION OVER THE
PERIOD AND CONSISTENT NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW AT 850HPA CORRESPOND TO
MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 15000 FT AGL POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...EXPECT BROKEN CIGS AROUND 10000
FT AGL OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING. FOR
BOTH TERMINALS...STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT AND
MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 50 KTS. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SLOW DOWN FRIDAY
MORNING TO 10 TO 20 KTS...THEN INCREASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KTS FRIDAY EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
THE RAP...GFS AND HRRR MODELS SHOW DEW POINTS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE 60S.
COUPLED WITH REASONABLY STRONG WINDS...CRITICAL FIRE DANGER SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND SWRN NEB. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
PLACE FOR THOSE AREAS.
AREAS EAST MAY REACH THE HUMIDITY AND WIND CRITERIA BUT FUEL STATUS
IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE FINER SOIL OF THOSE REGIONS WHICH MIGHT KEEP
THE FUELS MORE MOIST.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NEZ004>010-022>028-035>037-056>059-069>071-094.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY TO 7 PM CST /6
PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-210.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...BUTTLER
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
326 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH WINDS ARE STILL UNDERWAY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. VALENTINE ASOS GUSTED TO 68 MPH AT AROUND 2 AM CST.
PIERRE SD...76 MPH AT AROUND 3 AM CST.
THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS ON TRACK AND CAN OPERATE AS SCHEDULED. SOME
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61 COULD BE CLEARED IN AN HOUR OR
TWO...CONDITIONS PERMITTING...AS THE PRESSURE RISES ARE BEGINNING TO
SUBSIDE ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE.
SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL TODAY AND WINDS WILL RELAX MOSTLY ACROSS SWRN
NEB. WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE SANDHILLS...20 TO
30 MPH. WINDS AT 700MB DIMINISH TO 40 TO 50 KT BY MID AFTERNOON.
DEEP VERTICAL MIXING CONTINUES TODAY TO NEAR 700MB IN THE RAP
SOUNDINGS AT VALENTINE AND NORTH PLATTE. UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOMENTUM DOWNWARD WITH THE MIXING. DOUBLE
BARREL SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL COLESCE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES
AIDING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...MAINLY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS TODAY RISE INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 USING THE
WARMEST GUIDANCE.
LIGHT WINDS DEVELOP ALL AREAS TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
FIRE WEATHER...THE RAP...GFS AND HRRR MODELS SHOW DEW POINTS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE 60S.
COUPLED WITH REASONABLY STRONG WINDS...CRITICAL FIRE DANGER SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND SWRN NEB. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
PLACE FOR THOSE AREAS.
AREAS EAST MAY REACH THE HUMIDITY AND WIND CRITERIA BUT FUEL STATUS
IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE FINER SOIL OF THOSE REGIONS WHICH MIGHT KEEP
THE FUELS MORE MOIST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
MID RANGE...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
TEMPERATURES. A FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SHORTWAVE SOON AFTER. AT 850HPA...SOUTHWEST FLOW AND TEMPS NEAR 11C
AT 06Z SATURDAY TRANSITIONS TO NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPS
AROUND 8C AT 00Z SUNDAY. TRENDED TOWARD MAV AND ECM GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPS BUT STILL 3-5F LOWER THAN THEY SUGGEST. CONCERNS ARE EARLIER
SWITCH TO NORTH WINDS AND EARLIER ONSET OF CLOUDS. KEPT PRECIP
MENTION OUT OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING.
SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WHAT WILL LIKELY BE TOO
MUCH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH MOISTURE WITH A VERY BRIEF PERIOD WHERE LIFT AND MOISTURE
COINCIDE BELOW 700HPA...BUT WITH CONFIDENCE LOW AND QPF WOULD BE
VERY LIMITED...JUST DECIDED TO STAY DRY. MADE LITTLE ADJUSTMENT TO
SUNDAY MAX TEMPS AS CONTINUED CAA AT 850HPA...DROPPING TO NEAR 0C BY
00Z MONDAY...SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. MAY BE BREEZY
SUNDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A WELL MIXED LAYER TO
800HPA WHERE WINDS ARE NEAR 25KTS FROM NAM SOUNDINGS.
LONG RANGE...MONDAY TO THURSDAY...QUASI ZONAL FLOW AT 500HPA TURNS
NEARLY MERIDIONAL BY WEDNESDAY WITH A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. AS SHOWN BY THE EURO...AND THEN NORTHWEST FLOW BY
THURSDAY. SCALED BACK PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. EURO AND GFS MAINLY CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING BEST
FORCING AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH...BUT NEAR SURFACE DRY AIR MAY
BE AN ISSUE AGAIN. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT TEMP ADVECTION OVER THE
PERIOD AND CONSISTENT NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW AT 850HPA CORRESPOND TO
MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 15000 FT AGL POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...EXPECT BROKEN CIGS AROUND 10000
FT AGL OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING. FOR
BOTH TERMINALS...STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT AND
MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 50 KTS. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SLOW DOWN FRIDAY
MORNING TO 10 TO 20 KTS...THEN INCREASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KTS FRIDAY EVENING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NEZ004>010-022>028-035>037-056>059-069>071-094.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY TO 7 PM CST /6
PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-210.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...BUTTLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1131 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
DECIDED TO EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY TO ALL COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST
AREA FOR OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. OBSERVATIONS OUT WEST ARE
SOLIDLY INTO THE WIND ADVISORY CATEGORY AND HAVE HIT HIGH WIND
WARNING NUMBERS IN PARTS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST
COLORADO. NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO GET THAT STRONG RIGHT NOW. 02Z
HIGH RESOLUTION RAP MODEL BRINGS A 3 HOUR PRESSURE CHANGE OF UP TO
9 MB INTO ERN NE AND SWRN IA 09Z TO 13Z...WITH HIGHEST BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS 40 TO 50 KNOTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY NOT LAST VERY
LONG AT ANY GIVEN POINT. WINDS MAY EVEN DECOUPLE CONSIDERABLY
AROUND SUNRISE BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN MID TO LATE MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
THE PRIMARY SHORT-TERM FORECAST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE INTERIOR WEST. THE SRN EXTENSION OF THIS SYSTEM
WHICH IS MOVING THROUGH NV/UT HAS EXHIBITED SPORADIC LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK
WHICH WILL ACCELERATE NEWD INTO THE MID-MO VALLEY BY 12Z/FRI. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NOW DEEPENING OVER SERN MT WILL DEVELOP EWD
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT SURGES
THROUGH THE MID-MO VALLEY BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. WHILE MOISTURE
WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...OUR CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
DUE TO THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...A SUBSTANTIAL
ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT WILL EXIST AT THE SURFACE. THE PRESSURE-RISE
COMPONENT WILL ENCOURAGE THE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF STRONG WINDS
IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE 50-60+ KT WINDS DESCENDING TO AS LOW AS .5 KM AGL WITH
THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY BEING HOW THE STABILITY OF THE NEAR-
SURFACE LAYER --ARISING FROM THE UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY--
AFFECTS THE TRANSLATION OF THESE WINDS TO THE GROUND. MODEL
FORECASTS INDICATE A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS TO 20-25
KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER NERN NEB. THE
INCORPORATION OF CURRENT SNOW COVER INTO THE MODEL INITIALIZATION
AND THE NUMERIC HANDLING OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION CALLS INTO
QUESTION THESE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS. NOT THAT THEY ARE WRONG...ITS
JUST THAT THERE ARE A NUMBER OF FACTORS AT PLAY THAT WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW THIS EVENT UNFOLDS. FOR NOW...WE WILL
INCLUDE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NRN PORTION OF OUR AREA FROM
19/06Z-19/18Z WHERE THE HIGHEST PROBABLY OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS
WILL EXIST.
AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW (FRI)...AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF
COLD ADVECTION...DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SHOULD
ALLOW VALUES TO RISE INTO THE 60S. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY
RELAXES.
ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH
SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR SIMILAR...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY COOLER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES. BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY WHILE TRANSLATING FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE MIDWEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MID-MO VALLEY...USHERING IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. THE PRIMARY BELT OF FORCING FOR
ASCENT/DCVA RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING
THE DAY...HOWEVER ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED OWING TO
THE PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT EAST OF THE ROCKIES AT THE ONSET OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION IN RESPONSE TO THE
PROGRESSION OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL WIND MAXIMA FROM THE PACIFIC NW
TO THE GULF COAST IN THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. WE WILL RESIDE
TO THE WEST OF A COLDER CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WHICH WILL PLUNGE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO OH VALLEY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
INTENSIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. A SMALL CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES ON
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN SUCH AN
OCCURRENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
FOG AT KOFK SHOULD DISSIPATE AS WINDS INCREASE. OTHERWISE...A
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS ALOFT ARE ALREADY STRONG...RESULTING IN LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE WEST WITH
GUSTS LIKELY OVER 30 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY OVER 35 KNOTS FOR AT LEAST
A FEW HOURS. ANY PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF KOFK OVERNIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY BUT SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
DAY.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR NEZ045-052-053-067-068-
090>093.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
030>034-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-088-089.
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-
080-090-091.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...MEAD
LONG TERM...MEAD
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
140 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 140 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
WIDE VARIETY OF WEATHER...VERY UN-FEBRUARY-LIKE WITH SHOWERS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...WINTRY MIX EAST...GUSTY WINDS
DEVELOPING WEST INTO CENTRAL...AND WIDESPREAD FOG CENTRAL AND
EAST. WILL MAINTAIN ALL HEADLINES AS IS WITH THIS UPDATE.
FOR THE DENSE FOG: LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY NORTH CENTRAL
CONTINUE TO REPORT VISIBILITIES AT OR BELOW 1/4 MILE. AS WESTERLY
WINDS INCREASE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA...VIS SHOULD IMPROVE NOW
THROUGH 12Z FROM WEST TO EAST.
INITIAL WIND SURGE IS SEEING GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60KTS IN BUFFALO TO
JUST UNDER 50KTS IN SOUTHWEST ND. THIS WIND SURGE WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE PRESSURE RISE
BUBBLE...WITH WINDS BEHIND DIMINISHING QUITE A BIT. STILL EXPECT
WINDS TO INCREASE LATER FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
HAD REPORTS IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AREA OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.
OBS ALONG THE WESTERN BASIN OF DEVILS LAKE RIGHT AT FREEZING BUT
OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW AS STILL EXPECT THESE
TEMPS TO RISE.
MOST SHOWERS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST...WITH LESSER CHANCES NORTH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1009 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A MORE EXPANSIVE AREA OF RETURNS ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. SHORT RANGE MODELS FOCUS
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN ND ASSOCIATED WITH MORE
DISTINCT SHORTWAVE EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY. ALSO EXPANDED FOG
FARTHER WEST INTO STARK COUNTY BASED ON OBS...WHICH SHOULD BE
FAIRLY SHORT LIVED WITH WINDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AROUND
MIDNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST...WHICH REMAINS ON TRACK.
MAINLY BLENDED TO CURRENT OBS AND ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT
FOR LESS CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL. LIGHTER SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE CWA WITH SURFACE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT RETURNS OVER WESTERN
ND...BUT NO REPORTS OF PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
A DYNAMIC AND SPRING-LIKE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
DENSE FOG AHEAD OF IT AND STRONG WINDS IN ITS WAKE FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS OF 21 UTC...A STRONG SURFACE LOW IS DEEPENING IN SOUTHEASTERN
MT WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE NEAR 986 MB SOUTHEAST OF BILLINGS. THE
12 UTC GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THIS LOW WILL MOVE EAST
ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW...HIGH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT ON LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S F BENEATH A STOUT INVERSION ALOFT THANKS
TO ANOMALOUS LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WARMTH IS CONTRIBUTING TO A VERY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. VISIBILITIES FROM
NEAR NEW SALEM NORTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ND AS
OF MID AFTERNOON ARE STILL BELOW 1/2SM IN MANY AREAS...AND WITH
THE FAVORABLE SETUP AND CONSISTENT HRRR AND ESRL-HRRR MODEL RUNS
SHOWING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG THIS EVENING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST ND WE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. THE ADVISORY GOES THROUGH 06 UTC...EXCEPT OVER NORTH
CENTRAL ND WHERE WE RAN IT UNTIL 12 UTC. WE ACTUALLY EXPECT FOG
TO LIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST AND THE COLD
FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT FOLLOWS SUITE AND
INCREASES BOUNDARY LAYER SUBSIDENCE.
WE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE TYPE OR AREAL EXTENT OF WIND HEADLINES
WITH THIS ISSUANCE. HOWEVER...WE DID ADJUST THE START TIMES SUCH
THAT THE WIND ADVISORY AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS OVER SOUTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL ND START AT 03 UTC TONIGHT...AND THE WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL ND STARTS BETWEEN 06 AND 08 UTC.
THAT MOVE WAS BASED ON INITIAL PRESSURE RISES THAT WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE LOW EASTWARD TONIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE AN EXPANSION OF THE
HIGH WIND WARNING A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND EAST MAY BE NEEDED IF
ISALLOBARIC FORCING OVERCOMES NOCTURNAL STABILIZING EFFECTS AS
RECENT RAP ITERATIONS HAVE SHOWN 8-10 MB/3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS ALL OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL ND TONIGHT. WINDS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE STRONG AREA-WIDE DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.
THE 12 UTC GFS WAS A BIT STRONGER WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS THAN
THE 12 UTC NAM AND SUGGESTS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE HIGH WIND
WARNING AGAIN MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND TO
THE EAST...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DO THAT YET AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS EVEN FROM THE GFS SUGGEST THE LOW LEVELS MAY
NOT BE COMPLETELY DRY ADIABATIC.
WE DO EXPECT A BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
WITH THE STRONG SHORTWAVE...BUT THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST IT WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN IN MOST AREAS. WE ARE STILL CARRYING SOME
LOW-END CHANCES OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN NORTH CENTRAL ND...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN ANY IMPACTS FROM THAT IS LOW GIVEN A RATHER NARROW
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ROADS TO BE CLOSE TO
OR ABOVE 32 F IN MANY AREAS.
FINALLY...THE STRONG WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL
YIELD SOME CONCERNS FOR FIRE WEATHER IN SOUTHWEST ND...AS NOTED
IN THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION TYPES IS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING...BUT SHOULD TURN TO ALL SNOW BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN
AN INCH EXPECTED.
AFTER SUNDAY COOLER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL TAKE OVER.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT BRINGING
SHOWERS TO MOST AREAS AND VERY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
SYSTEM. MOST LOCATIONS CENTRAL AND EAST ARE IN LIFR/IFR
CATEGORIES. AS THE STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES EAST CEILINGS WILL LIFT
TO VFR AT ALL SITES WITH GUSTY NORTH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY GUST FROM 30-45 KNOTS AT TIMES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING FROM 50 TO 60 MPH FRIDAY
WILL POSE A CONCERN FOR WIND-DRIVEN FIRES...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ND WHERE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES MAY REACH 30 PERCENT.
IF PRECIPITATION IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND IS LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH TONIGHT AND THE WFAS...NFDRS FIRE DANGER RATING ENDS UP
IN THE HIGH OR GREATER CATEGORY...A RED FLAG WARNING COULD BE
NEEDED WITH THE MORNING FORECAST RELEASE. THE AREA OF PRIMARY
CONCERN IS ACROSS SLOPE...BOWMAN...AND ADAMS COUNTIES.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ017>020-031>035-041-042-045-046.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ003>005-011>013-021>023.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ003>005-010>013-021>023-025.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ036-037-047-048-
050-051.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ040-043-
044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH
FIRE WEATHER...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1009 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A MORE EXPANSIVE AREA OF RETURNS ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. SHORT RANGE MODELS FOCUS
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN ND ASSOCIATED WITH MORE
DISTINCT SHORTWAVE EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY. ALSO EXPANDED FOG
FARTHER WEST INTO STARK COUNTY BASED ON OBS...WHICH SHOULD BE
FAIRLY SHORT LIVED WITH WINDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AROUND
MIDNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST...WHICH REMAINS ON TRACK.
MAINLY BLENDED TO CURRENT OBS AND ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT
FOR LESS CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL. LIGHTER SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE CWA WITH SURFACE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT RETURNS OVER WESTERN
ND...BUT NO REPORTS OF PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
A DYNAMIC AND SPRING-LIKE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
DENSE FOG AHEAD OF IT AND STRONG WINDS IN ITS WAKE FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS OF 21 UTC...A STRONG SURFACE LOW IS DEEPENING IN SOUTHEASTERN
MT WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE NEAR 986 MB SOUTHEAST OF BILLINGS. THE
12 UTC GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THIS LOW WILL MOVE EAST
ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW...HIGH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT ON LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S F BENEATH A STOUT INVERSION ALOFT THANKS
TO ANOMALOUS LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WARMTH IS CONTRIBUTING TO A VERY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. VISIBILITIES FROM
NEAR NEW SALEM NORTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ND AS
OF MID AFTERNOON ARE STILL BELOW 1/2SM IN MANY AREAS...AND WITH
THE FAVORABLE SETUP AND CONSISTENT HRRR AND ESRL-HRRR MODEL RUNS
SHOWING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG THIS EVENING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST ND WE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. THE ADVISORY GOES THROUGH 06 UTC...EXCEPT OVER NORTH
CENTRAL ND WHERE WE RAN IT UNTIL 12 UTC. WE ACTUALLY EXPECT FOG
TO LIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST AND THE COLD
FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT FOLLOWS SUITE AND
INCREASES BOUNDARY LAYER SUBSIDENCE.
WE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE TYPE OR AREAL EXTENT OF WIND HEADLINES
WITH THIS ISSUANCE. HOWEVER...WE DID ADJUST THE START TIMES SUCH
THAT THE WIND ADVISORY AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS OVER SOUTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL ND START AT 03 UTC TONIGHT...AND THE WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL ND STARTS BETWEEN 06 AND 08 UTC.
THAT MOVE WAS BASED ON INITIAL PRESSURE RISES THAT WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE LOW EASTWARD TONIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE AN EXPANSION OF THE
HIGH WIND WARNING A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND EAST MAY BE NEEDED IF
ISALLOBARIC FORCING OVERCOMES NOCTURNAL STABILIZING EFFECTS AS
RECENT RAP ITERATIONS HAVE SHOWN 8-10 MB/3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS ALL OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL ND TONIGHT. WINDS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE STRONG AREA-WIDE DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.
THE 12 UTC GFS WAS A BIT STRONGER WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS THAN
THE 12 UTC NAM AND SUGGESTS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE HIGH WIND
WARNING AGAIN MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND TO
THE EAST...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DO THAT YET AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS EVEN FROM THE GFS SUGGEST THE LOW LEVELS MAY
NOT BE COMPLETELY DRY ADIABATIC.
WE DO EXPECT A BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
WITH THE STRONG SHORTWAVE...BUT THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST IT WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN IN MOST AREAS. WE ARE STILL CARRYING SOME
LOW-END CHANCES OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN NORTH CENTRAL ND...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN ANY IMPACTS FROM THAT IS LOW GIVEN A RATHER NARROW
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ROADS TO BE CLOSE TO
OR ABOVE 32 F IN MANY AREAS.
FINALLY...THE STRONG WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL
YIELD SOME CONCERNS FOR FIRE WEATHER IN SOUTHWEST ND...AS NOTED
IN THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION TYPES IS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING...BUT SHOULD TURN TO ALL SNOW BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN
AN INCH EXPECTED.
AFTER SUNDAY COOLER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL TAKE OVER.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED
AT 0656 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT BRINGING
SHOWERS TO MOST AREAS AND VERY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
SYSTEM. MOST LOCATIONS CURRENTLY ARE IN LIFR/IFR CATEGORIES WITH
EXCEPTION OF KDIK...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ALSO DROP TO LIFR THIS
EVENING. AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR
AT ALL SITES WITH GUSTY NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY GUST FROM 30-45 KNOTS AT TIMES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING FROM 50 TO 60 MPH FRIDAY
WILL POSE A CONCERN FOR WIND-DRIVEN FIRES...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ND WHERE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES MAY REACH 30 PERCENT.
IF PRECIPITATION IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND IS LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH TONIGHT AND THE WFAS...NFDRS FIRE DANGER RATING ENDS UP
IN THE HIGH OR GREATER CATEGORY...A RED FLAG WARNING COULD BE
NEEDED WITH THE MORNING FORECAST RELEASE. THE AREA OF PRIMARY
CONCERN IS ACROSS SLOPE...BOWMAN...AND ADAMS COUNTIES.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR
NDZ001-002-009-010-019-020-034-035-042.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ FRIDAY FOR NDZ019-020-
034-035-042-045-046.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ FRIDAY FOR NDZ017-018-
031>033-041.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-
021>023.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ003>005-
010>013-021>023-025.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ036-037-047-
048-050-051.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR NDZ040-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...ZH
FIRE WEATHER...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1150 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 917 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR THIS EVENING ACROSS
CENTRAL SD WITH MORE UPSTREAM. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM MODELS SHOW
THIS TREND IN INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE.
THUS...UPDATED WEATHER AND POPS ACROSS THE AREA. A DEEP SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHWEST SD THIS EVENING WILL MOVE QUICKLY
EAST WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEHIND IT. THIS WILL BRING VERY
STRONG WINDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA. THE SHOWERS COULD
BRING DOWN SOME OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT WITH GUST UP TO 60
MPH OR HIGHER OUT WEST. MOVED UP THE START TIME OF THE HIGH WIND
WARNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 607 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 147 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BUT
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS WITH SHOWERS
AND THEN AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE WILL BE 50 TO 70 KT WINDS
ALOFT AT 850 MB BUT THE ISSUE WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THEY WILL MIX
DOWN GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. LOCAL SHOWERS
WILL HELP MIX THEM DOWN AS WILL DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SO
HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AREAS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
STARTING AT 6Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 0Z. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE EAST OF THE WARNING. THE FIRST ITEM TO NOTE WILL BE THAT
WARNING LEVEL WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED TONIGHT...PERHAPS AN HOUR OR
TWO ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE SECOND THING TO
WATCH WILL BE THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS ALONG THE SISSETON HILLS WHICH
MAY MORE EASILY TAP INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. AND THE THIRD
THING TO NOTE IS THAT A COUPLE OF THE MODELS GENERATE WARNING LEVEL
GUSTS AS FAR EAST AS THE JAMES VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE
POTENTIAL FOR MOMENTUM TRANSFER ALL THE WAY TO THE SFC IS LIMITED.
AREAS THAT ARE SNOW FREE WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS INCREASE. EXTREME FIRE
DANGER IS EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE
IN PART TO THE GOOD MIXING AND ALSO TO ALMOST FLAT FLOW ALOFT. ONCE
THE CLOUDS CLEAR HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON SAT NIGHT. COOLER TEMPS WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH AS WILL
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. STILL LOOKING AT
AN EXITING SHORTWAVE EARLY SUNDAY THAT COULD RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
TRANSITIONS BACK TO RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS...AND THE PLAINS STATES UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SHORTWAVES THAT TRACK ACROSS THE REGION NEXT
WEEK...BUT WITH A LACK OF CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY...MAINTAINED A
DRY FORECAST. OVERALL TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK MODELS
BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THERMAL PROFILES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ALONG
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING VERY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS TO ALL LOCATIONS INTO FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INITIAL SURGE
OF STRONG WINDS TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT AND THEN A LULL IN THE WINDS.
AS THE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS AGAIN ON FRIDAY...WEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 TO 45 KNOTS OR
HIGHER. SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY AFFECTING ALL LOCATIONS. THESE WILL BRING DOWN THE VERY
STRONG WINDS AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH GUSTS OF OVER 50
KNOTS POSSIBLE AT PIR AND MBG. THE WINDS WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY
FRIDAY EVENING.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ FRIDAY FOR SDZ003-004-
009-015-016-033>035-045-048.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR SDZ005>008-010-011-017>023-
036-037-051.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR MNZ039-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...MOHR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
933 PM PST THU FEB 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT WESTERN WASHINGTON
LATE THIS EVENING. A VIGOROUS FRONT WILL MOVE MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING RAIN...MOUNTAIN SNOW...AND LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS. SHOWERS WILL END ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ONSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE WEATHER NEXT WEEK WILL BE
MILD AND DRY EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...A RIPPLY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVG NE
THROUGH WRN WA. HAVE BEEN WATCHING AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAIN LIFT
N/NE THIS EVNG. THE RAIN WILL SOON REACH BLI AND THEN EXIT THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 1-2 AM. THE 04Z HRRR SHOWS
THE SHOWERS OVER SW WA WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE NE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OUT AROUND
135W-140W. IT WILL DRIVE A 986 MB SURFACE LOW NORTHWARD ALONG 130W
ON FRI MORNING...WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED COLD FRONT LIFTING NE
THROUGH WRN WA OVER THE COURSE OF FRI AFTN. THE FRONT WILL BE
PRECEDED BY FAIRLY STRONG E/SE GRADIENTS...THEN FOLLOWED BY A
SURGE OF S/SW WINDS. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THERE WILL BE A 1-3 HOUR
BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP AS THE FRONT PASSES BY...WITH
FAIRLY HEAVY PRECIP CONTINUING BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE MTNS
OWING TO ONSHORE FLOW AND CONVERGENCE ZONE ACTIVITY ON FRI EVNG.
SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP FROM ABOUT 4000 FEET TO 2500 FEET WITH THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO THIS WILL LEAD TO RESPECTABLE SNOW AMTS.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL MTN ZONES TO HANDLE
THE EXPECTED SNOW.
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF OVER THE COURSE OF
SAT...AS A TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES. THE AIR MASS WILL
STABILIZE...AND LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME OFFSHORE. A
WELL-DEFINED BREAK IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED ON SAT NGT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MRNG.
YET ANOTHER FRONT WILL EJECT FROM THE PACIFIC ACROSS WRN WA ON
SUNDAY...WITH RAIN REACHING THE COAST IN THE MORNING...THEN
SPREADING INLAND BY MID-DAY. IT WILL PASS QUICKLY BY...PRECEDED
LIKE MOST FRONTS BY E/SE GRADIENTS...ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN AND MTN
SNOW...THEN FOLLOWED BY A S/SW PUSH OF WIND AND POST-FRONTAL
SHOWERS. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL ALREADY BE BUILDING IN
ON SUNDAY NGT...QUIETING THE WEATHER.HANER
.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...OVERALL...LONG TERM
MODELS ARE SHOWING NEXT WEEK TO BE NICE WITH LONG WAVE RIDGING
OVERHEAD OR NEARBY AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW DOMINATING. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW
SLOWLY RELAXES AHEAD OF AN INCOMING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THEN
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE DRY AND MILD. TEMPERATURES IN THE
INTERIOR SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AND SOME
SUNSHINE...AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
A WEAKENING FRONT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THIS FRONT WILL
BE MOVING INTO A BUILDING LONG WAVE RIDGE...SO RAIN CHANCES WILL NOT
BE HIGH. STRONG UPPER RIDGING COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL GIVE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...DRY CONDITIONS...AND VERY MILD
WEATHER WITH LOWS ONLY REACHING THE 40S AND HIGHS AROUND 60 AS WE
MOVE INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK. ALBRECHT
&&
.AVIATION...UPPER TROUGH WELL OFF THE COAST TO APPROACH
WASHINGTON FRIDAY. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TURNING SOUTHERLY FRIDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH TO MOVE THRU WESTERN WA THIS EVENING.
A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM TO TRACK ONSHORE LATE FRIDAY. AIR MASS
MOIST AND STABILIZING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM.
CEILINGS MAINLY VFR SAGGING TO PRIMARILY MVFR FRIDAY MORNING AS RAIN
SPREADS ONSHORE WITH THE INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
KSEA...SOME RAIN UNTIL ABOUT 07Z THEN LINGERING SHOWERS. CEILINGS
030-045. RAIN WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVING BY MIDDAY FRIDAY WITH
CEILINGS REMAINING AROUND 035. SOUTHERLY WIND AROUND 10 KT INTO
FRIDAY. BUEHNER
&&
.MARINE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN WA THIS
EVENING FROM THE SW. THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS ABOUT 500
NM FRIDAY EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO SWING ONSHORE LATE FRIDAY.
A NEAR 985 MB STRONG GALE IS ANTICIPATED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WELL OFF CAPE FLATTERY AND TURN NE OFF NORTHERN VANCOUVER
ISLAND LATE FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE GALE FORCE WINDS
ALONG THE COAST AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS. GALE WARNINGS NOW IN
PLACE FOR THE COAST...STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA ENTRANCES AND NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE. WINDS SHOULD EASE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING.
THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SUNDAY. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.
THEN HIGHER PRES IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF
NORTH AMERICA WITH OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK. BUEHNER
&&
.HYDROLOGY...FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BE PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND SNOW LEVELS WILL BE RATHER LOW. A TRANSITION TO A
DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. HANER
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PST SATURDAY FOR CASCADES OF
PIERCE AND LEWIS COUNTIES-CASCADES OF SNOHOMISH AND KING
COUNTIES-CASCADES OF WHATCOM AND SKAGIT COUNTIES.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM PST SATURDAY
FOR OLYMPICS.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE
FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS
FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT
10 NM-EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-
NORTHERN INLAND WATERS INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS-WEST
ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ADMIRALTY INLET-
CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-PUGET SOUND AND
HOOD CANAL.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
342 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
ALL EYES ON TODAY/S WIND EVENT. 19.09Z ANALYSIS SHOWS A 988 HPA
SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL SD WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 7 TO 8 HPA
THREE HOUR PRESSURE RISE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE
WHERE SURFACE GUSTS FROM 50 TO 60 KTS ARE OCCURRING. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS SURFACE LOW MOVING DUE EAST INTO
CENTRAL MN THROUGH 12Z AND THEN TAKING A SLIGHT JOG TO THE
NORTHEAST...MOVING INTO NORTHERN WI BY 18Z. AS A RESULT...BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO THE WEST
AND INCREASE RAPIDLY AFTER PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GFS/
ECMWF 0-1 KM WINDS INCREASE FROM 45 TO 50 KTS BY MID-LATE MORNING
WHILE THE NAM/RAP ARE A BIT STRONGER FROM 50 TO 55 KTS. IMPRESSIVE
DARKENING ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND STRONG DIVERGENT Q-VECTOR
SIGNAL SUGGEST MUCH OF THIS FLOW WILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE
SURFACE.
STILL SOME CONCERN ABOUT THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER TODAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT HANDLING THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE WELL DUE
TO SNOW COVER...THUS IMPACTING THEIR DEPICTION OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S. MODIFYING THE 19.08Z RAP SOUNDING AT 18Z FOR
KRST TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE HIGHER TEMPERATURES SHOWS A MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER TO NEARLY 850 HPA WHERE WINDS ARE NEAR 60 KTS. IF
THE MIXED LAYER CAN TAP INTO THESE STRONGER WINDS...SURFACE GUSTS
AT OR ABOVE WARNING CRITERIA (58 MPH) ARE STILL POSSIBLE WEST OF
THE MS RIVER. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS IF CLEARING
MATERIALIZES AROUND PEAK HEATING OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HELP
TRANSPORT HIGHER MOMENTUM FLOW TO THE SURFACE. ALL SAID...
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO HOIST A HIGH WIND WARNING AT
THIS TIME...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH VERY CAREFULLY OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE. EITHER WAY...A VERY WINDY
DAY ON TAP.
STRONGEST WINDS ARE A BIT SLOWER TO ARRIVE THIS MORNING...SO
DELAYED START OF WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 15Z FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA MINUS TAYLOR COUNTY. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE BETWEEN 15
AND 18Z...PEAKING AROUND THE NOON HOUR AND THEN SLOWLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL INVERSION AFTER
SUNSET SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO RAPIDLY FALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
AFTER 00Z. INCREASED GUSTS FROM 40 TO 55 MPH WEST OF THE MS RIVER
AND 35 TO 50 MPH TO THE EAST. SEE LATEST ADVISORY FOR MORE
DETAILS.
CONCERNING PRECIPITATION TODAY...LATEST RAP/HRRR ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT....MOVING THE LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY ACROSS SD MAINLY
NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR. STILL SEEING A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR
TWO...SO WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE DUE TO MELTING SNOW...SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AREAS FARTHER
SOUTH ARE TOO DRY TO GET MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES.
TONIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
STAYING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL WITH NO MAJOR
STORMS ON THE HORIZON. THE NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE
SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS A COUPLE WEAK SHORT-WAVES DROP
SOUTH FROM CANADA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MOST PRECIP THAT
DEVELOPS SHOULD BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE FOR
AREAS THAT DROP BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER MILD WITH MOST AREAS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.
NIGHTTIME LOWS DROP BACK INTO THE 20S SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. WITH WARM TEMPERATURES...RISES ON
RIVERS ARE EXPECTED AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS. SEE
HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT
1115 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
CLOUDS/CIGS...
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPED AND QUICKLY MOVED TO THE EAST...WITH A LARGE
CLEARING AREA MOVING IN FROM THE WEST - PER LATEST FOG/STRATUS
SATELLITE IMAGERY. MODELS THEN POINT TO A LOBE OF MVFR CIGS
RETURNING FRI MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES IN. THESE
CLOUDS WOULD QUICKLY EXIT EAST...LEAVING SCT/SKC VFR FOR THE LATER
PARTS OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
VSBY/WX...
WITH THAT SHORTWAVE WILL COME SOME -SHRA CHANCES...BETTER THREAT
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. WILL INCLUDE -SHRA DURING THE ANTICIPATED
PERIOD OF LOW CIGS...WITH SOME BR AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS.
WINDS...
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING WILL RESULT IN STRONG/GUSTY
WINDS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST/HIGHER GUSTS MORE LIKELY POST A
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY...WHERE THE CHANCE FOR DEEPER MIXING ALSO
EXISTS. LLWS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN AT KLSE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
LOOKING INTO SNOW MELT OF THE 1-2 INCH WATER EQUIVALENT SNOW PACK
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BRING RISES TO MANY RIVERS. RIGHT
NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RISES WILL OCCUR ALONG
THE KICKAPOO RIVER...ALTHOUGH WATER LEVELS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
OVERALL...EXPECT POSSIBLE ICE JAMS ON RIVERS AND RISES TO NEAR
FLOOD STAGE IN SOME BASINS. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION FROM WEATHER
SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR ENHANCING THE FLOOD THREAT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR WIZ029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096.
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
345 AM MST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MST FRI FEB 19 2016
CURRENTLY...WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING ACROSS THE REGION AS OF
10Z...WITH GUSTS GENERALLY BELOW 50 KTS MOST LOCATIONS. WILL GO
AHEAD AND CANCEL ALL HIGH WIND WARNINGS A LITTLE EARLY WITH NEW
FORECAST...AS MOST MODELS SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS HAVE PEAKED ACROSS
THE REGION. HRRR SUGGESTS SOUTHERN I25 CORRIDOR AND EAST SLOPES OF
THE SANGRES WILL LIKELY BE LAST TO DIMINISH...WITH STILL A FEW
GUSTS IN THE 50-60 MPH RANGE THROUGH ABOUT 8 AM.
TODAY/TONIGHT...STILL BREEZY TO WINDY AT TIMES OVER THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY AS MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN THE 30-50 KT RANGE...THOUGH
POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME/DAMAGING WINDS HAS ENDED. OVER THE
PLAINS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES QUICKLY BY THIS
MORNING...REPLACED BY DEEPENING LEE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS
WESTERLY UPPER FLOW CONTINUES. WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF I25 WILL
SWING BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY...INCREASING IN SPEED
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE KS BORDER. FAR EASTERN PLAINS
MAY SEE MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ONCE WINDS INCREASE...BUT WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY CREEPING UPWARD TO AROUND 15 PERCENT...SUSPECT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SKATE BY WITHOUT A FIRE HIGHLIGHT NEEDED. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER MOST AREAS THAN YESTERDAY`S EXTREME VALUES...THOUGH
MOST LOCATIONS WILL STILL RUN SOME 10-20F WARMER THAN SEASONAL
AVERAGES. WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WESTERLY FLOW
WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MIN TEMPS RATHER MILD ONCE
AGAIN...WITH READINGS IN THE 20S/30S MOST LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MST FRI FEB 19 2016
...WARM START TO THE WEEKEND...
...BRIEF RETURN TO WINTER EARLY NEXT WEEK...
LONG STRING OF UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY...AS OUR AREA REMAINS UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. H7 TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE PLUS TWO TO FOUR RANGE...AND WITH WRLY WINDS...SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN GET CLOSE TO OR EXCEED THE 70 DEGREE MARK AT KPUB AND OVER
MUCH OF THE PLAINS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING AND
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE DVD BY LATE SAT OR EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT IT LOOKS PRETTY DRY UNTIL SUN NIGHT...WHEN THE ERN MTS
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SHSN. LATEST NAM IS DRY FOR THIS PERIOD WHILE
THE GFS HAS SOME LIGHT QPF OVER SERN CO. SHOULD SEE SOME UPSLOPE
AND WEAK UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE MTN ZONES...SO WILL SIDE CLOSER TO
THE GFS AND MAINTAIN LOW POPS FOR THE ERN MTS AND SURROUNDING TRRN
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP WILL COME MON AFTERNOON THROUGH
MON NIGHT AS A SECOND...STRONGER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM THE NW.
THE GFS PROGS H7 TEMPS AS LOW AS MINUS 12 DEGREES C BY TUE MORNING IN
THE WAKE OF THIS STRONGER COLD FRONT. NOT TERRIBLY COLD BY NORMAL
FEB STANDARDS...BUT COMING ON THE HEELS OF WHAT LIKELY WILL BE THE
WARMEST OR ONE OF THE WARMEST FEBRUARYS ON RECORD...IT WILL BE A
TASTE OF TRUE WINTER CONDITIONS. THE GFS LOOKS A BIT MORE FAVORABLE
FOR QPF THAN THE ECMWF...BUT IN ETHER CASE THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD 24
HOUR PERIOD OF UPSLOPE FOR OUR AREA. WITH THE FAVORABLE GFS...COULD
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE FOR THE ERN MTS AND
PLAINS BY TUE MORNING. HIGHEST POPS LOOK TO BE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE
MORNING. HIGH TEMPS TUE OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 40S.
UPPER RIDGE THEN REBUILDS FROM WED THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK...RETURNING US TO DRY WX WITH TEMPS NR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE. A COUPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES TO OUR NORTH WILL KEEP THE CHANCE
OF A FEW SHSN FOR THE DVD GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MST FRI FEB 19 2016
VFR ALL TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT. STILL SOME GUSTY WEST WINDS AT
KCOS AND KPUB THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 30 KTS UNTIL 16Z.
WINDS DIMINISH BRIEFLY LATE MORNING BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND
INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS BOTH SITES BY MIDDAY. WINDS THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT WITH DRAINAGE FLOW DEVELOPING. AT KALS...WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED AND WILL STAY UNDER 20 KTS THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...PETERSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
955 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. A WARM FRONT
THEN APPROACHES TONIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAK
COLD FRONT FOLLOWS SATURDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
ON SUNDAY AND WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW CHANGES FOR THE 10 AM UPDATE INCLUDES MORE CLOUDS AND HIGHER
TEMPS FOR TODAY. WARM ADVECTION ALOFT HAS GENERATED SIGNIFICANT
CIRRO-STRATUS THAT IS NOW OVER MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT THE TWIN
FORKS AND SOUTHEASTERN CT. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
INTO THE REGION AND THEN LOWER AND THICKEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
WARM ADVECTION TAKES PLACE IN THE MID AND THEN LOWER LEVELS.
WITH TEMPS TRENDS WELL ABOVE FORECAST...HAVE UPDATED TO LATEST
LAMP GUIDANCE THAT WARMS THE REGION INTO THE 35-40 RANGE...LOWER
FOR40S FOR METRO NJ AND NYC DESPITE THE CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN SOME SPOTTY PCPN. AT MOST A COUPLE
OF HUNDREDS OF AN INCH. BASED ON LATEST RAP AND HRRR AS WELL AS
HRRRX...HAVE CONFINED POP TO NORTHERN ZONES. SOUTH...LOOKS LIKE
ANY PCPN SPRINKLES WOULD BE IT.
WILL NEED TO REFINE THIS WITH THE 1 PM UPDATE. THOUGH WITH TEMPS
ONLY NEAR FREEZING INLAND...LOOKS LIKE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL IS
LOW.
SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A SW
FLOW THAT WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. WENT CLOSER TO WARMER
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...WHICH WOULD HAVE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE IN THE
CWA REACHING AT LEAST 50. A WEAK COLD FRONT OR TROUGH THEN PASSES
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LACKING...SO EXPECT A DRY
PASSAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NEARLY ZONAL AND QUITE PROGRESSIVE TO
BEGIN SUNDAY. AN H5 VORT MAX SWINGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES AND
CARVES OUT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
ENERGY DEVELOPS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC...AND THEN TRACKS QUICKLY OFF THE COAST TO SOMEWHERE NEAR
THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN...THERE IS NOT
MUCH TIME FOR THIS WAVE TO AMPLIFY/STRENGTHEN INTO A DEEPER LOW.
OVERALL...00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
AS THE ECMWF/GGEM/NAM ARE ALL PRETTY SIMILAR IN TRACK. THERE ARE
SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES...WITH THE NAM AND GGEM A BIT DEEPER. THE
GGEM IS THE FURTHEST NORTH...TRACKING THE LOW INSIDE THE BENCHMARK.
IT APPEARS THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z GEFS ARE OUTLIERS COMPARED TO THE
REST OF THE GUIDANCE AS THE H5 ENERGY IS MORE ELONGATED AND THE
ATTENDANT SURFACE WAVE IS MUCH WEAKER. THE 03Z SREF MEAN IS
SIMILAR TO THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THIS PIECE OF ENERGY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE
PACIFIC NW COAST. SAMPLING SHOULD IMPROVE INTO SATURDAY AS THE
ENERGY MOVES OVER THE RAOB NETWORK.
SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. THERMAL PROFILES SHOULD BEGIN TO COOL
SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER NE FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND THE LOW. THE LOW TRACK WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE
PTYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE CURRENT CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
BRINGS A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE...POTENTIALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FOR NOW. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY
INLAND...IF ENOUGH COLD AIR CAN MAKE IT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT.
THE JET STREAM PATTERN BECOMES MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND FORECAST UNCERTAINTY GREATLY INCREASES. DEEP UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
AN ENERGETIC LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. AS THIS ENERGY DIGS SOUTH AND ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
AND THEN TRACKS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THERE HAS BEEN VERY
LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE
LOW. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE A STORM SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY INTO POSSIBLY THURSDAY...BUT DETAILS ARE
QUITE UNCERTAIN MAINLY DUE TO THE EXACT TRACK AND FROM PHASING OF
ENERGY WITHIN THE TROUGH.
THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE LOW TRACKING RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A HIGH TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS RIGHT NOW SHOWS
THIS SOURCE OF COLD AIR MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
CURRENT THINKING IS FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW AT THE FRONT END LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...CHANGING TO PLAIN RAIN
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS NEAR OR OVER THE REGION. FOLLOWED
SUPERBLEND POPS CLOSELY...WHICH CONTINUES LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO PULL AWAY TO THE NE ON THURSDAY. IT IS
PRUDENT TO NOTE THAT THERE IS LARGE SPREAD WITHIN THE ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLE SUITES...SO THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST FOR THIS EVENT AS PREDICTABILITY INCREASES.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRES OVER NORTHERN NY
STATE MOVES OVERHEAD BY LATE MORNING...AND THEN OFFSHORE IN THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW PRES THEN PASSES NORTH OF THE AIRSPACE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL OCCUR AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING...MAINLY
FOR KSWF...WHERE PCPN COULD START OUT AS -SN...THEN CHANGE TO
-FZRA BEFORE TAPERING OFF. ELSEWHERE...ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD
MOST LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
N/NE WINDS 5-10 KT WILL BECOME VRB THIS MORNING...THEN SHIFT TO
THE S AT 5-10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SAT-SUN...VFR.
.SUN NIGHT-MON...CHANCE OF MVFR IN RAIN...SNOW INLAND. BECOMING VFR
LATE MON WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING.
.TUE...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TODAY SHIFTING WINDS TO
SOUTHEAST WITH SUB-SCA CONDS ON ALL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
AND SEAS THEN PICK UP TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
THROUGH SE CANADA. WILL THEREFORE GO WITH SCA ON THE OCEAN
STARTING 00Z AND CARRY IT THROUGH SAT AFTN FOR NOW...BUT THIS WILL
PROBABLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED DUE TO LINGERING HIGH SEAS SAT NIGHT.
GUSTS COULD COME PRETTY CLOSE TO 25KT ON THE EASTERN SOUND...BUT
THIS WOULD NOT APPEAR TO BE LIKELY/WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
SCA.
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT ON SUNDAY WITH WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. AS IT DEPARTS...WINDS COULD BRIEFLY
APPROACH SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN. OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY WILL BEGIN TO PUSH WINDS
AND SEAS TOWARDS SCA LEVELS...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A
COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
POSSIBLY THURSDAY COULD BRING AN INCH OR MORE OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT
PRECIPITATION.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DS
NEAR TERM...JC/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...FEB/IRD
MARINE...JC/DS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
1006 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.UPDATE...A GORGEOUS MORNING WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
INLAND AND A BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST DUE TO A COASTAL
TROUGH OFFSHORE. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WERE STARTING TO APPROACH THE
COAST GENERALLY SOUTH OF ST AUGUSTINE WHILE SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED
INLAND.
FOR THE MORNING UPDATE INCREASED WINDS ALONG THE COAST TODAY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES DUE TO THE COASTAL TROUGH.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATE THIS AFTN AS THE COASTAL
TROUGH DAMPENS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA SINKS SOUTHWARD. TEMPS WERE ON TRACK TO RISE INTO THE
LOWER 70S INLAND TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO COOL ONSHORE FLOW WHERE NEAR SHORE WATER
TEMPS WERE IN THE MID 50S. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT MORE PATCHY FOG
FORMATION.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FROM SGJ TO GNV THIS AFTN AND EVENING UNDER
STRATOCUMULUS DECK MOVING ONSHORE. BREEZY ENE WINDS 10-15 KTS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 18 KTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST.
TONIGHT RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTED POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS
ACROSS MAINLY NE FL TERMINALS AND PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG AFTER
06Z TONIGHT DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE PER ONSHORE FLOW
TODAY...THEN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AS RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS EARLY SAT MORNING AT OUR FL TERMINALS AND CONTINUED TO
TREND THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION.
&&
.MARINE...NE TO E WINDS 10-15 KTS EXPECTED TODAY AS COASTAL TROUGH
GRADUALLY DAMPENS INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE EDGES SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA. SEAS REMAINED ELEVATED
RANGING FROM 4 FT AT GRAYS REEF BUOY 41008 TO NEAR 6 FT OFFSHORE
WATERS WITH 7 FT WAVES POSSIBLE NEAR GULF STREAM. OPTED TO DROP
THE EXERCISE CAUTION FOR OUR NEARSHORE LEGS WITH THE MORNING
UPDATE AND CONTINUED THE ADVISORY FOR 7 FT SEAS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTN.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 70 45 75 51 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 63 48 67 51 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 67 46 75 50 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 65 49 70 52 / 10 10 0 0
GNV 71 46 75 49 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 73 49 76 50 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WATERS
FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20
TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM
20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
ENYEDI/SHULER/GUILLET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
932 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM LATER TODAY AND
SATURDAY.
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY AND STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME
COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY
THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR REGION AS LOW LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WAS MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THIS WAS COMBINED
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET WAS ACROSS OUR REGION AND WINDS OF 60 TO 70 KNOTS WERE OCCURRING
AT 925 MB. WITH MIXING LATER TODAY BUFKIT INDICATES SURFACE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 40 KNOTS SHOULD OCCUR AND WILL GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY ALL AREAS TODAY.
DELAYED THE START TIME SLIGHTLY SINCE THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MIXING PRIOR TO MID
MORNING. AFTER THAT WILL GO WITH WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 45
TO 50 MPH SOME AREAS.
USUALLY WITH STRONG WINDS...WARM ADVECTION AND MIXING...MOS TEMPERATURES ARE TOO
COOL AND WILL GO CLOSER TO RAP AND HRR SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH JUST ABOUT ALL
AREAS REACHING INTO THE 60S...EXCEPT NEAR 60 IN THE NORTHEAST TODAY.
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA LATER TONIGHT AND STALL OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS SATURDAY.
WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE...WILL GO A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS NUMBERS.
WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MOST AREAS WITH UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST
FOR SATURDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STALLED FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT. BOTH EUROPEAN AND GEMNH MODELS ARE MUCH WETTER THAN
GFS AND NAM AND TRENDED WETTER MOST AREAS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS CENTRAL AND SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST EARLY SUNDAY. WENT WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ELSEWHERE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND ACROSS FAR EAST SUNDAY EVENING.
MODELS INDICATE TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME COOLER ALL AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTER
THIS SURFACE LOW MOVES BY AND IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TO START OFF THE LONG TERM.
A FLAT MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL GIVE WAY TO A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MAKING ITS WAY TO THE EAST
COAST. THIS TROUGH BRINGS A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GULF STATES AND
THEN UP THE EAST COAST...WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY KEEP CENTRAL
INDIANA DRY WITH FORCING AND MOISTURE FOCUSED FIRST SOUTH AND THEN
EAST OF THE AREA. INITIALIZATION POPS SPLASHED SLIGHT CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED BUT ELIMINATED ALL BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE FORCING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL SYSTEM GETS THE CLOSEST TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS
IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE RELATIVELY NEUTRAL FLOW PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 19/15Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 932 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 601 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM UNTIL AROUND
15Z...WHEN GUSTS WILL PICK UP TO 35-45 KTS AND SHIFT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. WIND GUSTS WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH THE DAY BUT
DECREASE SOME AR0OUND SUNSET AND GUSTS SHOULD CEASE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. SOUNDINGS...TIME HEIGHTS...SREF PROBABILITIES AND
MOS GUIDANCE SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND SEE SOME CURRENTLY ACROSS ARKANSAS
WORKING THEIR WAY NORTHEAST. THINK THE LOW LEVEL JET COULD ADVECT
SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND PRODUCE ISENTROPIC LIFT THAT COULD
DROP CEILINGS FOR A TIME SO WILL INCLUDE THESE FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...CP/NIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
614 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM LATER TODAY AND
SATURDAY.
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY AND STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME
COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY
THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR REGION AS LOW LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WAS MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THIS WAS COMBINED
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET WAS ACROSS OUR REGION AND WINDS OF 60 TO 70 KNOTS WERE OCCURRING
AT 925 MB. WITH MIXING LATER TODAY BUFKIT INDICATES SURFACE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 40 KNOTS SHOULD OCCUR AND WILL GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY ALL AREAS TODAY.
DELAYED THE START TIME SLIGHTLY SINCE THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MIXING PRIOR TO MID
MORNING. AFTER THAT WILL GO WITH WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 45
TO 50 MPH SOME AREAS.
USUALLY WITH STRONG WINDS...WARM ADVECTION AND MIXING...MOS TEMPERATURES ARE TOO
COOL AND WILL GO CLOSER TO RAP AND HRR SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH JUST ABOUT ALL
AREAS REACHING INTO THE 60S...EXCEPT NEAR 60 IN THE NORTHEAST TODAY.
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA LATER TONIGHT AND STALL OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS SATURDAY.
WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE...WILL GO A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS NUMBERS.
WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MOST AREAS WITH UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST
FOR SATURDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STALLED FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT. BOTH EUROPEAN AND GEMNH MODELS ARE MUCH WETTER THAN
GFS AND NAM AND TRENDED WETTER MOST AREAS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS CENTRAL AND SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST EARLY SUNDAY. WENT WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ELSEWHERE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND ACROSS FAR EAST SUNDAY EVENING.
MODELS INDICATE TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME COOLER ALL AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTER
THIS SURFACE LOW MOVES BY AND IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TO START OFF THE LONG TERM.
A FLAT MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL GIVE WAY TO A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MAKING ITS WAY TO THE EAST
COAST. THIS TROUGH BRINGS A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GULF STATES AND
THEN UP THE EAST COAST...WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY KEEP CENTRAL
INDIANA DRY WITH FORCING AND MOISTURE FOCUSED FIRST SOUTH AND THEN
EAST OF THE AREA. INITIALIZATION POPS SPLASHED SLIGHT CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED BUT ELIMINATED ALL BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE FORCING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL SYSTEM GETS THE CLOSEST TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS
IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE RELATIVELY NEUTRAL FLOW PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 191200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 601 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM UNTIL AROUND
15Z...WHEN GUSTS WILL PICK UP TO 35-45 KTS AND SHIFT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. WIND GUSTS WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH THE DAY BUT
DECREASE SOME AR0OUND SUNSET AND GUSTS SHOULD CEASE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. SOUNDINGS...TIME HEIGHTS...SREF PROBABILITIES AND
MOS GUIDANCE SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND SEE SOME CURRENTLY ACROSS ARKANSAS
WORKING THEIR WAY NORTHEAST. THINK THE LOW LEVEL JET COULD ADVECT
SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND PRODUCE ISENTROPIC LIFT THAT COULD
DROP CEILINGS FOR A TIME SO WILL INCLUDE THESE FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
447 AM MST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST FRI FEB 19 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WITH
ITS AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA. REGION OF MID-UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR IS IN PLACE WITHIN EXPECTED REGION OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. EAST OF THIS A PLUME
OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST 2/3 OF OUR
CWA. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS
OUR CWA AND IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR NORTON TO SHARON
SPRINGS.
EARLY THIS MORNING...TREND HAS BE TOWARD DECREASING WINDS AS PEAK
PRESSURE RISES HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD ALONG WITH FRONT AND STRONGEST
LLJ. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS STRONG LLJ IN PLACE MAINLY IN
THE EAST...HOWEVER BL WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY IN POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS WITH FRONTAL INVERSION IN PLACE LIMITING MIXING.
RAP/HRRR/NAM DO SHOW A SMALL REGION OF HIGHER BL WINDS LINGERING
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA (NEAR 50KT) IN
REGION OF BROAD SUBSIDENCE...BUT THIS DOESNT MATCH UPSTREAM OBS
(NOT MIXING TO SURFACE). CONSIDERING AREA OBS ARE WELL BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA AND WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A TREND AWAY FROM
POTENTIAL WARNING CRITERIA WINDS AS LLJ CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND EAST I DECIDED TO CANCEL WARNING EARLY. WE MAY STILL SEE
ISOLATED GUSTS 50-55 MPH...BUT THIS CAN BE HANDLED WITH OTHER
PRODUCTS.
TODAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THESE
PERIODS WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASSING NORTH OF OUR CWA WITH
THE STRONGEST SATURDAY NIGHT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO DOWNSLOPE PATTERN TO THE WEST AND LEE
TROUGH REDEVELOPMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN
VERY DRY...AND DESPITE A FEW WEAK QPF SIGNALS BY GEM/ECMWF SAT NIGHT
THE REST OF GUIDANCE AVAILABLE SHOWS DRY CONDITIONS. THERE COULD BE A
FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES SAT NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONSIDERING
DEPTH OF DRY LAYER ON SOUNDINGS (INCLUDING ECMWF). A COLD FRONT AND
GENERAL HEIGHT FALLS BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 125 AM MST FRI
FEB 19 2016
UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST MONDAY. A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESUME TUESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WILL SHIFT EAST INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE
TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL HAVE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE PROFILE TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
THERE SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN DURING THE DAYTIME WITH RAIN AND SNOW
MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESUME
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD START IN THE LOWER 50S MONDAY AND THEN COOL
TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WARMER MID 50S
ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S MONDAY NIGHT COOLING TO THE LOWER TO
MID 20S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 447 AM MST FRI FEB 19 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. STRONG LLJ
WILL TRANSITION EAST AND NORTH OF BOTH TERMINALS BY
15Z. BEFORE THAT OCCURS BOTH TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEER 45-55KT. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE BELOW
12KT AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE REDEVELOPS ALONG THE COLORADO STATE LINE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST FRI FEB 19 2016
THIS AFTERNOON LOW TDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA
AND THIS SHOULD COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS TO SUPPORT RH VALUES
BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF OUR CWA. WINDS THIS
MORNING SHOULD DECREASE AS GRADIENT RELAXES AND LOW LEVEL JET
TRANSITIONS EAST AND NORTH. AS LEE TROUGH REDEVELOPS SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER AND MODELS
SHOW AN INCREASE IN WINDS MID-LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR FAR WEST.
THE WINDOW FOR GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH APPEARS TO BE NARROW AND AT THE
MOST I COULD SEE A NARROW CORRIDOR IN PARTS OF OUR EASTERN
COLORADO COUNTIES JUST BARLEY REACHING 3HR RFW CRITERIA.
CONSIDERING THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE EVENT AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN
WIND MAGNITUDE/DURATION I AM NOT PLANNING ON RFW ISSUANCE AT THIS
TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MENTION IN HWO OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
544 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 316 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
An amplified upper trough was lifting east-northeast across NE
during the early morning hours. A strong LLJ of 60 KTS ahead of
the the 850mb trough was shifting east into western MO. A cold
front was moving east into north central KS. Westerly winds have
increased to 30 to 35 MPH with gusts of 45 MPH behind the front
and will remain above wind advisory criteria across north central
KS through 12Z.
There will be weak CAA through the day but westerly surface winds
will keep temperature mild with most areas reaching the upper 60s to
lower 70s. West-northwest winds will gradually diminish through the
afternoon hours as the stronger 850mb winds shift eastward into the
mid MS river valley by 00Z SAT.
Tonight, light westerly winds will back to the southwest and south
through the night. Overnight lows will drop into the upper 30s
across north central KS with lower to mid 40s across east central
KS.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 316 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
Westerly flow aloft carries a series of weak embedded disturbances
while a cold front shifts winds to the north during the day
Saturday. Moisture pooling ahead of the boundary with some
steepening of mid level lapse rates could develop a few
thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon into early evening. In
addition, shear profiles are decent at 45 to 50 kts. Best thunder
chances are towards Missouri, while across the CWA the current and
previous runs of the NAM are the only model developing precip as
far north as Topeka. I have a low end slight chc mention for TOP
however believe the better chances reside over Anderson, Coffey, and
Franklin counties.
A cooling trend begins on Sunday as a modified airmass drops
highs Sunday back to near 60 degrees. As an upper trough passes east
of the area, cooler temps come in on the backside with readings in
the 50s through the week. Overnight lows are generally near the
freezing mark. Main change to the extended was to add chances for
rain Monday evening as a progressive shortwave trough dives
southeast through the plains. While forcing centers along a sfc cold
front from the northwest, the wave itself is disorganized with both
the GFS and ECMWF developing scattered areas of qpf over the region.
Profilers suggest above freezing temps at 850 mb while sfc temps are
progged a few degrees above freezing, resulting in rain as most
likely precip type.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 534 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
VFR conditions through the forecast period. Winds are still the
main aviation hazard. LLWS is not in the TAFs at this time due to
the criteria likely not being met. However, based on 12z observed
sounding data, the highest observed winds in the lowest 2kft layer
are from 295 degrees at 47kts. Since surface winds are still
gusting and likely to continue this morning up into the mid 20kt
range, have not gone with LLWS mention. Winds slowly decrease
throughout the day.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 534 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
The RAP model mixes out the low-level moisture across the CWA during
the mid morning hours and keeps low dewpoints in the teens through
the afternoon hours. I went a bit higher than the RAP model for
dewpoints but RHs will drop to or below 20 percent across much of
the CWA during the late morning hours. The steep dry adiabatic lapse
rates to 840-820 MB should transport higher winds towards the
surface, with wind speeds of 15-25 MPH and gusts to 30 to 35 MPH
into the early afternoon hours. As the stronger flow aloft shifts
northeast of the area this afternoon, the winds will diminish
through the mid and late afternoon hours. Even though the sustain
winds may diminish to 10 to 20 MPH during the mid afternoon hours
the 25 MPH wind gust may continue due to the deep mixing.
Given wind gusts greater than 25 MPH during the late morning hours
into the mid afternoon hours, RH`s falling into the upper teens
during the late morning and afternoon hours, and dry fuels I will
issue a red flag warning for the entire CWA from 10 AM this morning
through 5 PM this afternoon.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM CST this
afternoon for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Drake
FIRE WEATHER...Gargan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
315 AM MST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST FRI FEB 19 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WITH
ITS AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA. REGION OF MID-UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR IS IN PLACE WITHIN EXPECTED REGION OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. EAST OF THIS A PLUME
OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST 2/3 OF OUR
CWA. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS
OUR CWA AND IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR NORTON TO SHARON
SPRINGS.
EARLY THIS MORNING...TREND HAS BE TOWARD DECREASING WINDS AS PEAK
PRESSURE RISES HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD ALONG WITH FRONT AND STRONGEST
LLJ. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS STRONG LLJ IN PLACE MAINLY IN
THE EAST...HOWEVER BL WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY IN POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS WITH FRONTAL INVERSION IN PLACE LIMITING MIXING.
RAP/HRRR/NAM DO SHOW A SMALL REGION OF HIGHER BL WINDS LINGERING
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA (NEAR 50KT) IN
REGION OF BROAD SUBSIDENCE...BUT THIS DOESNT MATCH UPSTREAM OBS
(NOT MIXING TO SURFACE). CONSIDERING AREA OBS ARE WELL BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA AND WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A TREND AWAY FROM
POTENTIAL WARNING CRITERIA WINDS AS LLJ CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND EAST I DECIDED TO CANCEL WARNING EARLY. WE MAY STILL SEE
ISOLATED GUSTS 50-55 MPH...BUT THIS CAN BE HANDLED WITH OTHER
PRODUCTS.
TODAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THESE
PERIODS WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASSING NORTH OF OUR CWA WITH
THE STRONGEST SATURDAY NIGHT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO DOWNSLOPE PATTERN TO THE WEST AND LEE
TROUGH REDEVELOPMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN
VERY DRY...AND DESPITE A FEW WEAK QPF SIGNALS BY GEM/ECMWF SAT NIGHT
THE REST OF GUIDANCE AVAILABLE SHOWS DRY CONDITIONS. THERE COULD BE A
FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES SAT NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONSIDERING
DEPTH OF DRY LAYER ON SOUNDINGS (INCLUDING ECMWF). A COLD FRONT AND
GENERAL HEIGHT FALLS BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 125 AM MST FRI
FEB 19 2016
UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST MONDAY. A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESUME TUESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WILL SHIFT EAST INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE
TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL HAVE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE PROFILE TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
THERE SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN DURING THE DAYTIME WITH RAIN AND SNOW
MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESUME
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD START IN THE LOWER 50S MONDAY AND THEN COOL
TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WARMER MID 50S
ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S MONDAY NIGHT COOLING TO THE LOWER TO
MID 20S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM MST THU FEB 18 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN STORY THROUGH
THE FIRST 6 TO 9 HOURS WILL BE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS AND LLWS.
STRONG COLD FRONT AND WINDS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA AT
THIS TIME. UNTIL AROUND 09Z OR 10Z...SUSTAINED WINDS AT BOTH SITES
WILL BE NEAR 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 45 TO 50 KNOTS. AFTER THAT THE
WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BE LESS GUSTY WITH THE WINDS AT KMCK
DECREASING THE LAST. LLWS WILL OCCUR AT BOTH SITES THROUGH 14Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST FRI FEB 19 2016
THIS AFTERNOON LOW TDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA
AND THIS SHOULD COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS TO SUPPORT RH VALUES
BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF OUR CWA. WINDS THIS
MORNING SHOULD DECREASE AS GRADIENT RELAXES AND LOW LEVEL JET
TRANSITIONS EAST AND NORTH. AS LEE TROUGH REDEVELOPS SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER AND MODELS
SHOW AN INCREASE IN WINDS MID-LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR FAR WEST.
THE WINDOW FOR GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH APPEARS TO BE NARROW AND AT THE
MOST I COULD SEE A NARROW CORRIDOR IN PARTS OF OUR EASTERN
COLORADO COUNTIES JUST BARLEY REACHING 3HR RFW CRITERIA.
CONSIDERING THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE EVENT AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN
WIND MAGNITUDE/DURATION I AM NOT PLANNING ON RFW ISSUANCE AT THIS
TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MENTION IN HWO OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
925 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 918 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
ANOTHER UPDATE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL CLEARING FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME ACROSS MAINLY NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...AS CLEAR SKIES
WERE PUSHING QUICKLY OUR WAY. HOWEVER...IN TRUE NRN MICHIGAN
FASHION...MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE EXPANDING NNW...AND SHOW THAT
RELENTLESS DESIRE TO NOT CLEAR. CONFIDENCE A LITTLE LOW ON SEEING
DECENT SUN TODAY. WILL OPT TO JUST KEEP THINGS MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH AFTERNOON. MAYBE SOME BETTER PROLONGED CLEARING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE GTV BAY REGION.
TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY RACING HIGHER THAN FORECAST...SO
INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 30S IN EASTERN
UPPER...TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE GTV BAY REGION AND ALONG M-55.
ALSO...EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE POTENTIAL CLEARER SKIES FOR AWHILE WITH SOME
SHALLOW MIXING...COUPLED WITH INCOMING STRONG FORCING WITH WELL
DEFINED SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WITH AND SHORTLY AFTER
FROPA...BETTER BL MIXING BRINGING DOWN 45 MPH GUSTS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING LOOKS GOOD UP TO GAYLORD/CHARLEVOIX/HARRISVILLE...AND
AREAS SOUTH OF THERE.
THE WINDS STAY GUSTY THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT...AND
WILL KEEP THE BL MIXED IN A DECENT ENOUGH FASHION FOR TEMPS TO
REMAIN MILD THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. LOWS ONLY DOWN INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 721 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO CANCEL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. AREA OF
LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET IS RAPIDLY ON THE WAY OUT OF NORTHEAST LOWER
AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. ANTICIPATED DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE HAS NOT OCCURRED...AND BASED OFF UPSTREAM CIG AND DEW
POINT TRENDS...MAY HAVE TROUBLE GENERATING ANY DRIZZLE UNTIL LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON (WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING).
&&
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
WAA/SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NRN PLAINS. 500 MB RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED JUST
EAST OF MICHIGAN...MAKING WAY FOR INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION AS A 500 MB
TROUGH SLIDES JUST EAST OF THE NRN ROCKIES. INITIAL WAA PRECIP WING
IS MAKING ITS WAY NE OUT OF OUR CWA ATTM. HIGHEST POPS HAVE REMAINED
ACROSS OUR NRN CWA...WITH LESS PRECIP TO THE SOUTH DUE TO DRIER LOW
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF M-32. PRECIP TYPE HAS BEEN
MIXED...SWITCHING FROM SNOW TO SLEET TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN BACK TO
SNOW AT TIMES WITHIN HEAVIER BURST OF PRECIP. AT THIS POINT...ONLY
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME DRIZZLE HAVE DEVELOPED IN ITS
WAKE OVER NRN WISCONSIN AND WRN UPR MICHIGAN. ADDITIONAL AREAS OF
RAIN ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE NRN PLAINS IN THE VCNTY OF THE SURFACE
LOW. LOTS OF QUESTIONS FOR THE DAY AHEAD...INCLUDING POPS...PRECIP
TYPE...TEMPS AND WIND SPEEDS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE STACKED LOW AS IT PUSHES OUT OF THE NRN
PLAINS AND THRU NRN MICHIGAN.
THIS HIGHLY DYNAMIC SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE UPSTREAM WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD THRU CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY AND RIGHT
THRU THE STRAITS THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED AS A 500 MB LOW CLOSES OFF DIRECTLY UNDER THE SURFACE LOW.
NAM AND RAP BOTH SUGGEST ONLY LIGHT PRECIP THRU MUCH OF TODAY...WITH
HIGHEST POPS REMAIN ACROSS OUR NRN CWA. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR BOTH AT LOW AND MID LEVELS
THAT WILL LIMIT PRECIP PRODUCTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STILL...CANNOT
IGNORE WHAT IS HAPPENING UPSTREAM...AND WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
DURING THE MORNING INCREASING TO CATEGORICAL THIS AFTERNOON AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVE JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW CENTER. PRECIP TYPE
WILL REMAIN QUESTIONABLE THIS MORNING PER MODEL SOUNDINGS BEFORE LOW
LEVEL WAA BOOSTS SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING BY AROUND MIDDAY OR
SO. WILL MAINTAIN WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE NRN HALF OF OUR CWA
FROM M-32 NORTHWARD THRU ERN UPR MICHIGAN UNTIL NOON. TEMPS SHOULD
HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING BY THIS TIME.
REGARDING WIND POTENTIAL TODAY...IN COORDINATION WITH GRR AND DTX...
WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR OUR SRN TIER OF COUNTIES AS WELL AS
OUR FAR SW COUNTIES FROM LEELANAU TO GRAND TRAVERSE AND BENZIE. LOW
LEVEL WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SE TO THE S/SW BY AFTERNOON AND FURTHER
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING LOW. STABILITY MAY BE A LIMITING
FACTOR REGARDING JUST HOW MUCH OF THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT WE MAY BE
ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY KEEP SOME OF THE HIGHER WINDS AT
BAY. REGARDLESS...WILL ISSUE THE ADVISORY FOR THE ABOVE AREAS WITH
SOME SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH EXPECTED AT TIMES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
(2/20)SATURDAY...AS THE 500 MB SPEED MAX MOVES TO THE EAST OUT OF
LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING, THE FORCING GOES WITH IT, AS DOES
THE 700-500 MB LAYER MOISTURE. SO HAVE THE SNOW IN THE MORNING
DIMINISHING WITH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAIN/SNOW MIX, AS THE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER PART OF THE PROFILES
BEGIN TO WARM WITH THE MAX SFC TEMPERATURES IN E UPPER GETTING TO
THE MID 30S. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING, BRINGING THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN. HOWEVER, THERE
IS SOME DISAGREEMENT TO THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR INITIALLY. THE ECMWF
AND THE NAM BOTH HAVE THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -7C AND -8C
WHILE THE GFS IS GETTING TO AROUND -10C. WITH THE WATER TEMPERATURES
AROUND 3C IN BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN, AM NOT SURE THAT
THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF LAKE EFFECT EVEN IN E UPPER UNTIL
CLOSER TO 12Z. SO MINOR AMOUNTS IF ANY OVERNIGHT IN E UPPER.
(2/21)SUNDAY...DURING THE MORNING THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ON ALL THE
MODELS IS AROUND -13C, BUT NOW WE HAVE A LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE 850-
700 MB LAYER WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH WITH THE LAYER RH<20%. SO
THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL BE THERE WITH THE INSTABILITY, BUT
THE AMOUNTS WILL BE MINOR AS THE MOISTURE ISN`T THERE. THE MOISTURE
DOESN`T GET ANY BETTER INTO THE NIGHT AS THE 850-700 MB LAYER RH
CONTINUES AT LESS THAN 30% AND THE SFC HIGH APPROACHES, MAKING THE
FLOW MORE AND MORE ANTICYCLONIC. SO WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT, ALTHOUGH IT WOULD MORE
LIKE FLURRIES IF WE GET ANYTHING AT ALL.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
THE 3-7 DAY TRENDS LOOK LIKE WE ARE EVOLVING TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN FROM THE MORE ZONAL FLOW DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT
WEEK. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE END OF THE ZONAL FLOW AS A 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND THE
500 MB VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY REINFORCES THE TROUGH BY HAVING A
SPOKE OF ENERGY THAT ROTATES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS JUST BEHIND
IT ON TUESDAY. THIS SETS UP THE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ALMOST THE LAST TWO YEARS, EXCEPT
DURING THE TIME THAT THE EL NINO PATTERN HAD BEEN DOMINATED
(PRIMARILY NOV-EARLY JAN). SO THE MAIN IDEA WILL BE EVOLUTION OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 607 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY LATE AFTERNOON
AS AS WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP IN THE NRN PLAINS. RAIN WILL DIMINISH TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND THEN TO MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...AS VSBYS DROP TO IFR. LLWS WILL REMAIN
AN ISSUE FOR ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES THRU TODAY AND INTO
THIS EVENING..WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AS WELL.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REACH GALE WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS MOST OF OUR
NEARSHORE AREAS TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS RIGHT THRU THE STRAITS THIS EVENING. MIXED PRECIP THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME ALL LIGHT RAIN BY AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES OF
RAIN CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT AS WARM AIR SURGES NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE LOW CENTER. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCA CRITERIA.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ019>022-
025>036-041-042.
LH...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DICKSON
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
723 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 721 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO CANCEL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. AREA OF
LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET IS RAPIDLY ON THE WAY OUT OF NORTHEAST LOWER
AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. ANTICIPATED DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE HAS NOT OCCURRED...AND BASED OFF UPSTREAM CIG AND DEW
POINT TRENDS...MAY HAVE TROUBLE GENERATING ANY DRIZZLE UNTIL LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON (WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING).
&&
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
WAA/SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NRN PLAINS. 500 MB RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED JUST
EAST OF MICHIGAN...MAKING WAY FOR INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION AS A 500 MB
TROUGH SLIDES JUST EAST OF THE NRN ROCKIES. INITIAL WAA PRECIP WING
IS MAKING ITS WAY NE OUT OF OUR CWA ATTM. HIGHEST POPS HAVE REMAINED
ACROSS OUR NRN CWA...WITH LESS PRECIP TO THE SOUTH DUE TO DRIER LOW
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF M-32. PRECIP TYPE HAS BEEN
MIXED...SWITCHING FROM SNOW TO SLEET TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN BACK TO
SNOW AT TIMES WITHIN HEAVIER BURST OF PRECIP. AT THIS POINT...ONLY
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME DRIZZLE HAVE DEVELOPED IN ITS
WAKE OVER NRN WISCONSIN AND WRN UPR MICHIGAN. ADDITIONAL AREAS OF
RAIN ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE NRN PLAINS IN THE VCNTY OF THE SURFACE
LOW. LOTS OF QUESTIONS FOR THE DAY AHEAD...INCLUDING POPS...PRECIP
TYPE...TEMPS AND WIND SPEEDS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE STACKED LOW AS IT PUSHES OUT OF THE NRN
PLAINS AND THRU NRN MICHIGAN.
THIS HIGHLY DYNAMIC SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE UPSTREAM WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD THRU CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY AND RIGHT
THRU THE STRAITS THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED AS A 500 MB LOW CLOSES OFF DIRECTLY UNDER THE SURFACE LOW.
NAM AND RAP BOTH SUGGEST ONLY LIGHT PRECIP THRU MUCH OF TODAY...WITH
HIGHEST POPS REMAIN ACROSS OUR NRN CWA. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR BOTH AT LOW AND MID LEVELS
THAT WILL LIMIT PRECIP PRODUCTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STILL...CANNOT
IGNORE WHAT IS HAPPENING UPSTREAM...AND WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
DURING THE MORNING INCREASING TO CATEGORICAL THIS AFTERNOON AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVE JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW CENTER. PRECIP TYPE
WILL REMAIN QUESTIONABLE THIS MORNING PER MODEL SOUNDINGS BEFORE LOW
LEVEL WAA BOOSTS SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING BY AROUND MIDDAY OR
SO. WILL MAINTAIN WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE NRN HALF OF OUR CWA
FROM M-32 NORTHWARD THRU ERN UPR MICHIGAN UNTIL NOON. TEMPS SHOULD
HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING BY THIS TIME.
REGARDING WIND POTENTIAL TODAY...IN COORDINATION WITH GRR AND DTX...
WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR OUR SRN TIER OF COUNTIES AS WELL AS
OUR FAR SW COUNTIES FROM LEELANAU TO GRAND TRAVERSE AND BENZIE. LOW
LEVEL WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SE TO THE S/SW BY AFTERNOON AND FURTHER
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING LOW. STABILITY MAY BE A LIMITING
FACTOR REGARDING JUST HOW MUCH OF THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT WE MAY BE
ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY KEEP SOME OF THE HIGHER WINDS AT
BAY. REGARDLESS...WILL ISSUE THE ADVISORY FOR THE ABOVE AREAS WITH
SOME SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH EXPECTED AT TIMES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
(2/20)SATURDAY...AS THE 500 MB SPEED MAX MOVES TO THE EAST OUT OF
LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING, THE FORCING GOES WITH IT, AS DOES
THE 700-500 MB LAYER MOISTURE. SO HAVE THE SNOW IN THE MORNING
DIMINISHING WITH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAIN/SNOW MIX, AS THE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER PART OF THE PROFILES
BEGIN TO WARM WITH THE MAX SFC TEMPERATURES IN E UPPER GETTING TO
THE MID 30S. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING, BRINGING THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN. HOWEVER, THERE
IS SOME DISAGREEMENT TO THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR INITIALLY. THE ECMWF
AND THE NAM BOTH HAVE THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -7C AND -8C
WHILE THE GFS IS GETTING TO AROUND -10C. WITH THE WATER TEMPERATURES
AROUND 3C IN BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN, AM NOT SURE THAT
THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF LAKE EFFECT EVEN IN E UPPER UNTIL
CLOSER TO 12Z. SO MINOR AMOUNTS IF ANY OVERNIGHT IN E UPPER.
(2/21)SUNDAY...DURING THE MORNING THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ON ALL THE
MODELS IS AROUND -13C, BUT NOW WE HAVE A LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE 850-
700 MB LAYER WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH WITH THE LAYER RH<20%. SO
THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL BE THERE WITH THE INSTABILITY, BUT
THE AMOUNTS WILL BE MINOR AS THE MOISTURE ISN`T THERE. THE MOISTURE
DOESN`T GET ANY BETTER INTO THE NIGHT AS THE 850-700 MB LAYER RH
CONTINUES AT LESS THAN 30% AND THE SFC HIGH APPROACHES, MAKING THE
FLOW MORE AND MORE ANTICYCLONIC. SO WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT, ALTHOUGH IT WOULD MORE
LIKE FLURRIES IF WE GET ANYTHING AT ALL.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
THE 3-7 DAY TRENDS LOOK LIKE WE ARE EVOLVING TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN FROM THE MORE ZONAL FLOW DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT
WEEK. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE END OF THE ZONAL FLOW AS A 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND THE
500 MB VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY REINFORCES THE TROUGH BY HAVING A
SPOKE OF ENERGY THAT ROTATES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS JUST BEHIND
IT ON TUESDAY. THIS SETS UP THE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ALMOST THE LAST TWO YEARS, EXCEPT
DURING THE TIME THAT THE EL NINO PATTERN HAD BEEN DOMINATED
(PRIMARILY NOV-EARLY JAN). SO THE MAIN IDEA WILL BE EVOLUTION OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 607 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY LATE AFTERNOON
AS AS WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP IN THE NRN PLAINS. RAIN WILL DIMINISH TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND THEN TO MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...AS VSBYS DROP TO IFR. LLWS WILL REMAIN
AN ISSUE FOR ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES THRU TODAY AND INTO
THIS EVENING..WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AS WELL.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REACH GALE WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS MOST OF OUR
NEARSHORE AREAS TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS RIGHT THRU THE STRAITS THIS EVENING. MIXED PRECIP THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME ALL LIGHT RAIN BY AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES OF
RAIN CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT AS WARM AIR SURGES NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE LOW CENTER. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCA CRITERIA.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ020-025-026-031>036-041-042.
LH...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LHZ346>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LHZ345.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ341.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MSB
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
715 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 538 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
...LULL IN PRECIP ATTM BUT MORE WINTRY PRECIP RETURNS THIS AFTN...
STRONG SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM THIS MORNING OVER DAKOTAS. LIGHTNING
STRIKES WERE OBSERVED EARLIER WITH H7-H5 LAPSE RATES PUSHING 9C/KM
OVER SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE. WAVE AND SFC LOW MOVE IN THIS
AFTN WHICH WILL BRING MORE PRECIP BACK OVER THE AREA. ATTM THOUGH IS
FAIRLY QUIET WITH MINIMAL DRIZZLE IN WAKE OF STRONG BAND OF WINTRY
MIX THAT MOVED THROUGH LATE LAST EVENING. SEEMS THAT HEAVIEST FZRA
FELL OVER THE KEWEENAW WHILE OTHER FZRA OCCURRED OVER WESTERN UPR
MICHIGAN. MAINLY SNOW OCCURRED ELSEWHERE. WHAT HAS BEEN LEFT OVER
IN THE WAKE OF THAT ARC OF HEAVIER PRECIP IS NOT MUCH. DRIZZLE AND
FZDZ HAS BEEN PATCHY/INTERMITTENT WITH DRYING IN BLYR AS SEEN BY
SFC DWPNT DEPRESSIONS 3-5F IN MOST AREAS. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR
NEXT SURGE OF PRECIP...STARTING OFF AS RAIN...MOVING IN BY AFTN AS
THE STRONG SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW ARRIVE ACROSS NORTHERN WI. SFC LOW WILL
BE DOWN TO LOWER THAN 990MB. CANCELLED WINTER WX ADVY FOR ALL BUT
KEWEENAW AND FAR EAST EARLY.
NOT OUT OF THE WOODS WITH REGARD TO THIS SYSTEM YET THOUGH. TRICKY
PART OF THE FORECAST TODAY IS STRONG COOLING ALOFT THAT ACCOMPANIES
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH WHERE ENHANCED LIFT WOULD OCCUR IN THE MID LEVEL FGEN.
NAM/GEM-REGIONAL AND RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPS ALOFT COMING CLOSE
TO 0C...SO SNOW COULD BE PTYPE DURING PERIOD OF HEAVIEST PRECIP LATE
THIS AFTN. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT PORTIONS OF NCNTRL AND
WESTERN CWA WOULD HAVE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SNOW AND AT LEAST MINOR
ACCUMS. TRENDED TOWARD MORE SNOW FOR THESE AREAS BUT DUE TO WARM
TEMPS AT THE SFC IN THE MID 30S AT LEAST...SNOW ACCUMS IN ANY ONE
LOCATION SHOULD BE HELD DOWN TO A SLUSHY INCH OR SO. CAVEOT TO THAT
IS IF THIS SNOW FALLS AT VERY HIGH RATES WHICH IS POSSIBLE WITH
LAPSE RATES ALOFT THAT MOVE ACROSS...A FEW INCHES OF SLUSHY SNOW
COULD ACCUMULATE QUITE QUICKLY. NAM/GEM-REGIONAL MOST EMPHATIC WITH
THIS IDEA...BUT DIFFER ON WHERE STRIPE OF HEAVIER QPF IS PLACED.
SUPPOSE IF EVERYTHING CAME TOGETHER IDEALLY /NAMELY ENOUGH COOLING
ALOFT AND DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG RIBBON OF PRECIP FORCED BY
INSTABILITY ALOFT/ A SHORT DURATION HEADLINE FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF
SLUSHY SNOW COULD BE NEEDED SOMEWHERE FM THE KEWEENAW TO THE NCNTRL
CWA. WILL CERTAINLY BE SOMETHING FOR DAYSHIFT TO KEEP EYE ON AS DAY
WEARS ON.
INTO TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC LOW MOVE EAST OF UPR
MICHIGAN AND SHOULD SEE SUBSIDENCE SPREADING FM WEST TO EAST BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. WITH LOSS OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER DZ/FZDZ SCENARIO FOR A
WHILE THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE OVER KEWEENAW PENINSULA
WITH UPLSOPE WESTERLY WINDS. WHEN ADDITIONAL PRECIP OCCURS LATER
TONIGHT AS NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW WITH COOLING OF AIRMASS IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS
EVENING. SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT IN ANY ONE AREA SHOULD BE UNDER 1
INCH...THOUGH LINGERING FORCING MAY RESULT IN MORE SNOW OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND THE FAR EAST CWA.
GIVEN SUCH A STRONG LOW CROSSING THE AREA THIS AFTN INTO THE
EVENING...S-SE WINDS WILL BE STRONG AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH GUSTS OVER
30 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE EAST HALF. ONCE THE LOW MOVES BY...WEST
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AS WELL...STRONGEST OVER KEWEENAW PENINSULA
AND NEAR LK SUPERIOR. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...GUSTS 35-45 MPH
COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING FOR THE KEWEENAW.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
A LOWER AMPLITUDE ZONALLY ORIENTED FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WILL
CONTINUE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN
THEN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AGAIN NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER
WRN N AMERICA LEADING TO A DEEPENING TROF OVER ERN N AMERICA. THE
MODEST PATTERN AMPLIFICATION HOWEVER WILL ONLY LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BLO
NORMAL 5H HEIGHTS OVER THE UPPER LAKES AND TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR LATE FEB.
BEGINNING SAT...WEAKLY CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND LINGERING LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY MAINTAIN ISOLD/SCT -SHSN/-SHRA OVER MAINLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NW HALF AND FAR E. EVEN IF PCPN OCCURS...PCPN
AMOUNTS WL BE LIGHT. WILL CONTINUE ONLY LOW CHC POPS IN FCST.
AS TROF DEEPENS AROUND HUDSON BAY...A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PASS
SLOWLY S THRU THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. IN ADDITION...A
SHORTWAVE WILL SWING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE COULD
RESULT IN SOME -SN SPREADING INTO THE FCST AREA SUN...BUT IT
PROBABLY WON`T BE UNTIL LATE SUN THAT THE AIR MASS BECOMES COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LES. 850MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -16C SUN
NIGHT...BUT WITH SFC HIGH PRES ALREADY BUILDING INTO THE UPPER LAKES
BY LATE SUN NIGHT/MON AND INVERSION FALLING TO 4KFT...LES WILL BE
LIGHT. DGZ WILL BE FIRMLY SITUATED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER...SO
THERE MAY BE A COUPLE INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW ACCUMULATION SUN NIGHT.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT LES WILL END MON AS HIGH PRES ARRIVES OVER THE
AREA AND THEN DRIFTS E. IN THE AMPLIFYING WRN RIDGE/ERN TROF PATTERN
NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TWO SHORTWAVES DIVE SE INTO THE UPPER LAKES
AREA BUT MODEL CONSISTENCY ON TIMING OF WAVES IS POOR...SO NOT A LOT
OF CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS. HOWEVER...ANY SYNOPTIC -SN SHOULD BE LIGHT
AS FORCING IS GENERALLY WEAK...AND AT THIS POINT...LES DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A BIG DEAL AS 850 CAA NOT STRONG BEHIND SHORTWAVES
(COLDEST MODEL HAS 8H TEMPS LOWERING TO -18C) AND FLOW GENERALLY
ANTICYCLONIC.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 714 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
INTERMITTENT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
RAIN AND SNOW MOVES BACK OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. EXPECT MVFR CIGS DROP TO IFR THIS AFTN AS STEADIER RAIN AND
SNOW ARRIVE. STEADIER RAIN/SNOW DIMINISHES TONIGHT AND EXPECT CIGS
TO RETURN TO MVFR AT IWD AND CMX...AND RISE TO VFR AT SAW. PLAN ON
IFR VSBY DURING THE STEADIER PRECIP THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING.
WINDS START DAY OUT GUSTY FM SSE AT SAW. AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES AREA THIS AFTN...WINDS SHIFT TO WEST BY THIS EVENING AND
COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG/GUSTY OVER 35 KTS AT THE MORE EXPOSED CMX
SITE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 538 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN EXITING HIGH PRES AND LOW
PRES MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES WILL RESULT IN SSE GALES OF 35-
40KT OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. GALE WARNING
CONTINUES. ALTHOUGH WINDS BRIEFLY AS THE LOW PASSES THIS
AFTN...STRONG W WINDS UP TO 30KT WILL DEVELOP FROM W TO E IN THE
LATE AFTN/EVENING. WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO 35-40KT FOR A TIME
AROUND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH TO MAINLY THE 15-25KT RANGE SAT THRU SUN MORNING.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER TO MOSTLY UNDER 15KT LATE SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING AS HIGH PRES ARRIVES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND ANOTHER LOW
PRES TROF APPROACHES....WINDS WILL INCREASE MON AFTN THRU TUE...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY UNDER 20KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ006-007-014-
085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ264-266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
607 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
WAA/SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NRN PLAINS. 500 MB RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED JUST
EAST OF MICHIGAN...MAKING WAY FOR INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION AS A 500 MB
TROUGH SLIDES JUST EAST OF THE NRN ROCKIES. INITIAL WAA PRECIP WING
IS MAKING ITS WAY NE OUT OF OUR CWA ATTM. HIGHEST POPS HAVE REMAINED
ACROSS OUR NRN CWA...WITH LESS PRECIP TO THE SOUTH DUE TO DRIER LOW
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF M-32. PRECIP TYPE HAS BEEN
MIXED...SWITCHING FROM SNOW TO SLEET TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN BACK TO
SNOW AT TIMES WITHIN HEAVIER BURST OF PRECIP. AT THIS POINT...ONLY
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME DRIZZLE HAVE DEVELOPED IN ITS
WAKE OVER NRN WISCONSIN AND WRN UPR MICHIGAN. ADDITIONAL AREAS OF
RAIN ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE NRN PLAINS IN THE VCNTY OF THE SURFACE
LOW. LOTS OF QUESTIONS FOR THE DAY AHEAD...INCLUDING POPS...PRECIP
TYPE...TEMPS AND WIND SPEEDS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE STACKED LOW AS IT PUSHES OUT OF THE NRN
PLAINS AND THRU NRN MICHIGAN.
THIS HIGHLY DYNAMIC SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE UPSTREAM WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD THRU CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY AND RIGHT
THRU THE STRAITS THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED AS A 500 MB LOW CLOSES OFF DIRECTLY UNDER THE SURFACE LOW.
NAM AND RAP BOTH SUGGEST ONLY LIGHT PRECIP THRU MUCH OF TODAY...WITH
HIGHEST POPS REMAIN ACROSS OUR NRN CWA. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR BOTH AT LOW AND MID LEVELS
THAT WILL LIMIT PRECIP PRODUCTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STILL...CANNOT
IGNORE WHAT IS HAPPENING UPSTREAM...AND WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
DURING THE MORNING INCREASING TO CATEGORICAL THIS AFTERNOON AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVE JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW CENTER. PRECIP TYPE
WILL REMAIN QUESTIONABLE THIS MORNING PER MODEL SOUNDINGS BEFORE LOW
LEVEL WAA BOOSTS SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING BY AROUND MIDDAY OR
SO. WILL MAINTAIN WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE NRN HALF OF OUR CWA
FROM M-32 NORTHWARD THRU ERN UPR MICHIGAN UNTIL NOON. TEMPS SHOULD
HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING BY THIS TIME.
REGARDING WIND POTENTIAL TODAY...IN COORDINATION WITH GRR AND DTX...
WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR OUR SRN TIER OF COUNTIES AS WELL AS
OUR FAR SW COUNTIES FROM LEELANAU TO GRAND TRAVERSE AND BENZIE. LOW
LEVEL WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SE TO THE S/SW BY AFTERNOON AND FURTHER
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING LOW. STABILITY MAY BE A LIMITING
FACTOR REGARDING JUST HOW MUCH OF THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT WE MAY BE
ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY KEEP SOME OF THE HIGHER WINDS AT
BAY. REGARDLESS...WILL ISSUE THE ADVISORY FOR THE ABOVE AREAS WITH
SOME SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH EXPECTED AT TIMES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
(2/20)SATURDAY...AS THE 500 MB SPEED MAX MOVES TO THE EAST OUT OF
LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING, THE FORCING GOES WITH IT, AS DOES
THE 700-500 MB LAYER MOISTURE. SO HAVE THE SNOW IN THE MORNING
DIMINISHING WITH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAIN/SNOW MIX, AS THE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER PART OF THE PROFILES
BEGIN TO WARM WITH THE MAX SFC TEMPERATURES IN E UPPER GETTING TO
THE MID 30S. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING, BRINGING THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN. HOWEVER, THERE
IS SOME DISAGREEMENT TO THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR INITIALLY. THE ECMWF
AND THE NAM BOTH HAVE THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -7C AND -8C
WHILE THE GFS IS GETTING TO AROUND -10C. WITH THE WATER TEMPERATURES
AROUND 3C IN BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN, AM NOT SURE THAT
THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF LAKE EFFECT EVEN IN E UPPER UNTIL
CLOSER TO 12Z. SO MINOR AMOUNTS IF ANY OVERNIGHT IN E UPPER.
(2/21)SUNDAY...DURING THE MORNING THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ON ALL THE
MODELS IS AROUND -13C, BUT NOW WE HAVE A LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE 850-
700 MB LAYER WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH WITH THE LAYER RH<20%. SO
THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL BE THERE WITH THE INSTABILITY, BUT
THE AMOUNTS WILL BE MINOR AS THE MOISTURE ISN`T THERE. THE MOISTURE
DOESN`T GET ANY BETTER INTO THE NIGHT AS THE 850-700 MB LAYER RH
CONTINUES AT LESS THAN 30% AND THE SFC HIGH APPROACHES, MAKING THE
FLOW MORE AND MORE ANTICYCLONIC. SO WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT, ALTHOUGH IT WOULD MORE
LIKE FLURRIES IF WE GET ANYTHING AT ALL.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
THE 3-7 DAY TRENDS LOOK LIKE WE ARE EVOLVING TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN FROM THE MORE ZONAL FLOW DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT
WEEK. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE END OF THE ZONAL FLOW AS A 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND THE
500 MB VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY REINFORCES THE TROUGH BY HAVING A
SPOKE OF ENERGY THAT ROTATES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS JUST BEHIND
IT ON TUESDAY. THIS SETS UP THE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ALMOST THE LAST TWO YEARS, EXCEPT
DURING THE TIME THAT THE EL NINO PATTERN HAD BEEN DOMINATED
(PRIMARILY NOV-EARLY JAN). SO THE MAIN IDEA WILL BE EVOLUTION OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 607 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY LATE AFTERNOON
AS AS WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP IN THE NRN PLAINS. RAIN WILL DIMINISH TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND THEN TO MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...AS VSBYS DROP TO IFR. LLWS WILL REMAIN
AN ISSUE FOR ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES THRU TODAY AND INTO
THIS EVENING..WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AS WELL.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REACH GALE WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS MOST OF OUR
NEARSHORE AREAS TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS RIGHT THRU THE STRAITS THIS EVENING. MIXED PRECIP THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME ALL LIGHT RAIN BY AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES OF
RAIN CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT AS WARM AIR SURGES NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE LOW CENTER. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCA CRITERIA.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ020-025-026-031>036-041-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ008-015>019-
021>024.
LH...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LHZ346>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LHZ345.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ341.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
539 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 538 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
...LULL IN PRECIP ATTM BUT MORE WINTRY PRECIP RETURNS THIS AFTN...
STRONG SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM THIS MORNING OVER DAKOTAS. LIGHTNING
STRIKES WERE OBSERVED EARLIER WITH H7-H5 LAPSE RATES PUSHING 9C/KM
OVER SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE. WAVE AND SFC LOW MOVE IN THIS
AFTN WHICH WILL BRING MORE PRECIP BACK OVER THE AREA. ATTM THOUGH IS
FAIRLY QUIET WITH MINIMAL DRIZZLE IN WAKE OF STRONG BAND OF WINTRY
MIX THAT MOVED THROUGH LATE LAST EVENING. SEEMS THAT HEAVIEST FZRA
FELL OVER THE KEWEENAW WHILE OTHER FZRA OCCURRED OVER WESTERN UPR
MICHIGAN. MAINLY SNOW OCCURRED ELSEWHERE. WHAT HAS BEEN LEFT OVER
IN THE WAKE OF THAT ARC OF HEAVIER PRECIP IS NOT MUCH. DRIZZLE AND
FZDZ HAS BEEN PATCHY/INTERMITTENT WITH DRYING IN BLYR AS SEEN BY
SFC DWPNT DEPRESSIONS 3-5F IN MOST AREAS. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR
NEXT SURGE OF PRECIP...STARTING OFF AS RAIN...MOVING IN BY AFTN AS
THE STRONG SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW ARRIVE ACROSS NORTHERN WI. SFC LOW WILL
BE DOWN TO LOWER THAN 990MB. CANCELLED WINTER WX ADVY FOR ALL BUT
KEWEENAW AND FAR EAST EARLY.
NOT OUT OF THE WOODS WITH REGARD TO THIS SYSTEM YET THOUGH. TRICKY
PART OF THE FORECAST TODAY IS STRONG COOLING ALOFT THAT ACCOMPANIES
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH WHERE ENHANCED LIFT WOULD OCCUR IN THE MID LEVEL FGEN.
NAM/GEM-REGIONAL AND RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPS ALOFT COMING CLOSE
TO 0C...SO SNOW COULD BE PTYPE DURING PERIOD OF HEAVIEST PRECIP LATE
THIS AFTN. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT PORTIONS OF NCNTRL AND
WESTERN CWA WOULD HAVE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SNOW AND AT LEAST MINOR
ACCUMS. TRENDED TOWARD MORE SNOW FOR THESE AREAS BUT DUE TO WARM
TEMPS AT THE SFC IN THE MID 30S AT LEAST...SNOW ACCUMS IN ANY ONE
LOCATION SHOULD BE HELD DOWN TO A SLUSHY INCH OR SO. CAVEOT TO THAT
IS IF THIS SNOW FALLS AT VERY HIGH RATES WHICH IS POSSIBLE WITH
LAPSE RATES ALOFT THAT MOVE ACROSS...A FEW INCHES OF SLUSHY SNOW
COULD ACCUMULATE QUITE QUICKLY. NAM/GEM-REGIONAL MOST EMPHATIC WITH
THIS IDEA...BUT DIFFER ON WHERE STRIPE OF HEAVIER QPF IS PLACED.
SUPPOSE IF EVERYTHING CAME TOGETHER IDEALLY /NAMELY ENOUGH COOLING
ALOFT AND DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG RIBBON OF PRECIP FORCED BY
INSTABILITY ALOFT/ A SHORT DURATION HEADLINE FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF
SLUSHY SNOW COULD BE NEEDED SOMEWHERE FM THE KEWEENAW TO THE NCNTRL
CWA. WILL CERTAINLY BE SOMETHING FOR DAYSHIFT TO KEEP EYE ON AS DAY
WEARS ON.
INTO TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC LOW MOVE EAST OF UPR
MICHIGAN AND SHOULD SEE SUBSIDENCE SPREADING FM WEST TO EAST BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. WITH LOSS OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER DZ/FZDZ SCENARIO FOR A
WHILE THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE OVER KEWEENAW PENINSULA
WITH UPLSOPE WESTERLY WINDS. WHEN ADDITIONAL PRECIP OCCURS LATER
TONIGHT AS NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW WITH COOLING OF AIRMASS IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS
EVENING. SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT IN ANY ONE AREA SHOULD BE UNDER 1
INCH...THOUGH LINGERING FORCING MAY RESULT IN MORE SNOW OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND THE FAR EAST CWA.
GIVEN SUCH A STRONG LOW CROSSING THE AREA THIS AFTN INTO THE
EVENING...S-SE WINDS WILL BE STRONG AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH GUSTS OVER
30 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE EAST HALF. ONCE THE LOW MOVES BY...WEST
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AS WELL...STRONGEST OVER KEWEENAW PENINSULA
AND NEAR LK SUPERIOR. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...GUSTS 35-45 MPH
COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING FOR THE KEWEENAW.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
A LOWER AMPLITUDE ZONALLY ORIENTED FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WILL
CONTINUE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN
THEN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AGAIN NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER
WRN N AMERICA LEADING TO A DEEPENING TROF OVER ERN N AMERICA. THE
MODEST PATTERN AMPLIFICATION HOWEVER WILL ONLY LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BLO
NORMAL 5H HEIGHTS OVER THE UPPER LAKES AND TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR LATE FEB.
BEGINNING SAT...WEAKLY CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND LINGERING LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY MAINTAIN ISOLD/SCT -SHSN/-SHRA OVER MAINLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NW HALF AND FAR E. EVEN IF PCPN OCCURS...PCPN
AMOUNTS WL BE LIGHT. WILL CONTINUE ONLY LOW CHC POPS IN FCST.
AS TROF DEEPENS AROUND HUDSON BAY...A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PASS
SLOWLY S THRU THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. IN ADDITION...A
SHORTWAVE WILL SWING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE COULD
RESULT IN SOME -SN SPREADING INTO THE FCST AREA SUN...BUT IT
PROBABLY WON`T BE UNTIL LATE SUN THAT THE AIR MASS BECOMES COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LES. 850MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -16C SUN
NIGHT...BUT WITH SFC HIGH PRES ALREADY BUILDING INTO THE UPPER LAKES
BY LATE SUN NIGHT/MON AND INVERSION FALLING TO 4KFT...LES WILL BE
LIGHT. DGZ WILL BE FIRMLY SITUATED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER...SO
THERE MAY BE A COUPLE INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW ACCUMULATION SUN NIGHT.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT LES WILL END MON AS HIGH PRES ARRIVES OVER THE
AREA AND THEN DRIFTS E. IN THE AMPLIFYING WRN RIDGE/ERN TROF PATTERN
NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TWO SHORTWAVES DIVE SE INTO THE UPPER LAKES
AREA BUT MODEL CONSISTENCY ON TIMING OF WAVES IS POOR...SO NOT A LOT
OF CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS. HOWEVER...ANY SYNOPTIC -SN SHOULD BE LIGHT
AS FORCING IS GENERALLY WEAK...AND AT THIS POINT...LES DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A BIG DEAL AS 850 CAA NOT STRONG BEHIND SHORTWAVES
(COLDEST MODEL HAS 8H TEMPS LOWERING TO -18C) AND FLOW GENERALLY
ANTICYCLONIC.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
CIGS SHOULD STEADILY TREND FROM MVFR TO IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT. LOWEST
CIGS LATE TONIGHT WILL BE AT KSAW WITH UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY WINDS. FOR
VSBY...EXPECT MVFR VSBY . STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR FRI
AFTERNOON AT IWD WITH THE INFLUX OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AS WINDS VEER
TO THE WEST. OTHERWISE...IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AT CMX AND SAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 538 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN EXITING HIGH PRES AND LOW
PRES MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES WILL RESULT IN SSE GALES OF 35-
40KT OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. GALE WARNING
CONTINUES. ALTHOUGH WINDS BRIEFLY AS THE LOW PASSES THIS
AFTN...STRONG W WINDS UP TO 30KT WILL DEVELOP FROM W TO E IN THE
LATE AFTN/EVENING. WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO 35-40KT FOR A TIME
AROUND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH TO MAINLY THE 15-25KT RANGE SAT THRU SUN MORNING.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER TO MOSTLY UNDER 15KT LATE SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING AS HIGH PRES ARRIVES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND ANOTHER LOW
PRES TROF APPROACHES....WINDS WILL INCREASE MON AFTN THRU TUE...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY UNDER 20KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ006-007-014-
085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ264-266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
450 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 436 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
WIND GUSTS AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO PRESENT A CHALLENGE FOR
TODAY. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND THERE
IS NO SILVER BULLET THAT WILL GIVE THE ANSWER AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
SURFACE WINDS WILL TAP INTO THE HIGH WIND SPEEDS ALOFT. THE ONE THING
THAT IS A BIT CONCERNING IS THE WIDESPREAD OBS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NEBRASKA WITH WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 KTS...BUT THESE LOCATIONS
HAVE ZERO SNOWPACK AND AS A RESULT HAVE A MUCH LESS STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER. HOWEVER...THEY DID OCCUR IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT WHICH
SAYS SOMETHING ABOUT THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS OFF THE RAP ARE STARTING TO CAPTURE THE PERIOD OF
STRONG WINDS...AND INDEED THE MIXED LAYER DOES SHOW 50KTS ATOP THE
CHANNEL IN WEST CENTRAL MN WHERE THERE IS LESS SNOWPACK AND SURFACE
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S. MEANWHILE...WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MN THE POTENTIAL TO
REALIZE THE WINDS ALOFT DECREASES.
VERY RARELY DOES MN AND WI MATCH THE WINDS OBSERVED UPSTREAM OVER
THE DAKOTAS...AND FOR NOW FEEL THAT THIS WILL BE NO DIFFERENT UNLESS
A RAIN SHOWER DEVELOPS AND BRINGS THE STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. FEEL A HIGH END WIND ADVISORY WILL COVER THIS EVENT...BUT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AN UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING IS
NEEDED. ITS CERTAINLY IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. LOOKING
AHEAD...EXPECT DRY WEATHER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
MILD TEMPERATURES ARE STILL THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT DURING THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AN ABSENCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
OUTSIDE OF MINIMAL SNOW CHANCES ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
TEMPS WILL REDUCE BACK DOWN A FEW DEGRESS FOR SATURDAY...AS
HEIGHTS LOWER SLIGHTLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ARE ANTICIPATED. THIS
WAVE IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE...BUT WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
WARRANT A 20-30 POP. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE...WITH NEAR-
FREEZING TEMPS ILLUSTRATING THE NEED FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MENTION.
NEXT WEEK THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE TROUGHING OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL MEAN NORTHWEST FLOW AND MILD
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BACK TOWARD OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
ANOTHER WAVE IS FORECAST STREAM OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HAVE
INCLUDED 20 POPS AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE LARGE DIFFERENCES THAT
EXIST REGARDING THE TIMING/STRENGTH/EXISTENCE OF THIS WAVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
AT THIS POINT STRATUS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY. HIRES MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE IT...BUT IT HAS NOT FORMED YET SO HAVE
SCALED BACK IN THE TAFS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST...AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
KMSP...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE YET TO DEVELOP...SO WILL GO AGAINST FORECAST
GUIDANCE AND REMOVE THEM THIS MORNING SINCE IT APPEARS UNLIKELY
THEY WILL FORM. WINDS ARE SLOWER TO SHIFT AS WELL...SO DELAYED
THEM IN THE TAF. WESTERLY WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND WNW AT 10G20 KTS.
SUN...VFR/MVFR WITH -RA/-SN POSSIBLE. WIND NW AT 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND SW AT 10G15KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR WIZ026-028.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ047-054>056-064-
065-067-073>075-082-083-091-092.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ076-077-084-085-
093.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR MNZ078.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
820 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.UPDATE...THE PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS LIFTED. HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES TO
REFLECT THIS. THE REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK./17/
./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...458 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS PUSHING LOW CLOUDS QUICKLY
INTO WESTERN ZONES CURRENTLY AND HRRR SUGGESTS THESE CLOUDS WILL GET
TO ROUGHLY THE I- 55 CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. AFTER 8 OR 9 AM
THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING MUCH FURTHER EAST...WITH
THE BROKEN LOW CLOUD DECKS OVER WESTERN ZONES SUBSEQUENTLY LIFTING
NORTH AND BREAKING UP THROUGH MIDDAY. ADDITIONALLY...ALONG AND EAST
OF THE I- 55 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHERN MS THERE IS CURRENTLY LOCALLY DENSE
FOG FORMING AND WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS A BIT LIGHTER. THIS DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK WILL LIKELY REMAIN QUITE
CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MS AND THEREFORE NOT
WARRANTING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY (ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE COVERED IN THE
HWO).
OTHERWISE FOR TODAY...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AFTER THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG LIFT BY MIDDAY. THE TREND
FROM YESTERDAY WAS FOR TEMPERATURES TO TREND WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED...
AND THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AGAIN AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY
SHOULD CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND AND MAXIMUMS WERE GENERALLY PLACED
NEAR THE TOP END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
THE SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT GETTING STARTED THIS MORNING WILL
BE MORE IN FULL SWING BY TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN LOTS OF
LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THESE CLOUDS AND
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD HOLD LOWS UP IN THE MILD 50S.
ON SATURDAY INCOMING SOUTHERN JET STREAM ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A
FLAT UPPER WAVE WILL SPREAD A LOT MORE HIGH TO MID LAYER CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. THIS
ENERGY COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH BEST (BUT STILL LOW) CHANCES OF
MEASUREMENT BEING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO AGAIN BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE
50S. /BB/
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE STRETCH OF VERY MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE TO COME TO AN END EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WETTER AND COOLER
PATTERN TAKES SHAPE. FOR SUNDAY...HAVE FOLLOWED A WARMER BLEND OF
GUIDANCE GIVEN SUBSIDENT FLOW AND STRONG MIXING AND RECENT TRENDS OF
OVERACHIEVING WARMTH. A LARGE LOW-MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD SLOW
DOWN THE PUSH OF A POLAR FRONT INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LIMIT
SIGNIFICANT PREFRONTAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND LEND TO MORE OF
AN ANAFRONTAL RAINFALL SCENARIO INITIALLY WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES
ALONG/N OF THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR.
SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SEND THE FRONT WELL INTO THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY LEADING TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHES 1.5 INCHES.
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SOME SINCE YESTERDAY REGARDING THE FORECAST
FRONTAL POSITIONS AND AT LEAST TWO SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSAGES ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT NAEFS GUIDANCE IS STILL NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN INGREDIENTS...AND IT SUGGESTS THAT
UPSTREAM MOISTURE TRANSPORT COULD LEAD TO BETTER MOISTURE BEING
INTERCEPTED BEFORE MOVING INTO THE ARKLAMISS. THIS IS A LOT TO
CONSIDER SO FAR OUT IN TIME...AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT ANY
MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS. AS WE GO INTO
MID WEEK...DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE ARKLAMISS WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATIC NORMAL. /EC/
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WILL AFFECT GLH/GWO/HKS/HEZ AND PERHAPS JAN
THIS MORNING THROUGH ABOUT 9 TO 10 AM...ALTHOUGH IFR TO LIFR FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 8 TO 9 AM AROUND HBG/PIB WITH AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF ALSO AFFECTING JAN/HKS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
LAST AROUND GLH...ALTHOUGH EVEN THERE THE AFTERNOON SHOULD LARGELY BE
DEVOID OF ANY ISSUES ASIDE FROM SOUTH WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO
NEAR 30 MPH. ELSEWHERE WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS GUSTY. EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING EXPECT MORE ISSUES FROM LOW CLOUDS ALTHOUGH MVFR
FLIGHT CATS WILL BE MORE LIKELY THAN IFR. /BB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 76 55 74 58 / 0 1 7 12
MERIDIAN 75 53 74 56 / 0 1 10 9
VICKSBURG 78 56 76 59 / 0 3 7 12
HATTIESBURG 77 55 74 56 / 0 2 11 7
NATCHEZ 77 56 76 60 / 0 2 8 10
GREENVILLE 72 57 71 59 / 0 9 9 18
GREENWOOD 75 57 72 59 / 0 7 8 19
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
BB/EC/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
458 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS PUSHING LOW CLOUDS QUICKLY
INTO WESTERN ZONES CURRENTLY AND HRRR SUGGESTS THESE CLOUDS WILL GET
TO ROUGHLY THE I- 55 CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. AFTER 8 OR 9 AM
THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING MUCH FURTHER EAST...WITH
THE BROKEN LOW CLOUD DECKS OVER WESTERN ZONES SUBSEQUENTLY LIFTING
NORTH AND BREAKING UP THROUGH MIDDAY. ADDITIONALLY...ALONG AND EAST
OF THE I- 55 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHERN MS THERE IS CURRENTLY LOCALLY DENSE
FOG FORMING AND WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS A BIT LIGHTER. THIS DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK WILL LIKELY REMAIN QUITE
CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MS AND THEREFORE NOT
WARRANTING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY (ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE COVERED IN THE
HWO).
OTHERWISE FOR TODAY...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AFTER THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG LIFT BY MIDDAY. THE TREND
FROM YESTERDAY WAS FOR TEMPERATURES TO TREND WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED...
AND THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AGAIN AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY
SHOULD CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND AND MAXIMUMS WERE GENERALLY PLACED
NEAR THE TOP END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
THE SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT GETTING STARTED THIS MORNING WILL
BE MORE IN FULL SWING BY TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN LOTS OF
LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THESE CLOUDS AND
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD HOLD LOWS UP IN THE MILD 50S.
ON SATURDAY INCOMING SOUTHERN JET STREAM ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A
FLAT UPPER WAVE WILL SPREAD A LOT MORE HIGH TO MID LAYER CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. THIS
ENERGY COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH BEST (BUT STILL LOW) CHANCES OF
MEASUREMENT BEING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO AGAIN BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE
50S. /BB/
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE STRETCH OF VERY MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE TO COME TO AN END EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WETTER AND COOLER
PATTERN TAKES SHAPE. FOR SUNDAY...HAVE FOLLOWED A WARMER BLEND OF
GUIDANCE GIVEN SUBSIDENT FLOW AND STRONG MIXING AND RECENT TRENDS OF
OVERACHIEVING WARMTH. A LARGE LOW-MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD SLOW
DOWN THE PUSH OF A POLAR FRONT INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LIMIT
SIGNIFICANT PREFRONTAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND LEND TO MORE OF
AN ANAFRONTAL RAINFALL SCENARIO INITIALLY WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES
ALONG/N OF THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR.
SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SEND THE FRONT WELL INTO THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY LEADING TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHES 1.5 INCHES.
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SOME SINCE YESTERDAY REGARDING THE FORECAST
FRONTAL POSITIONS AND AT LEAST TWO SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSAGES ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT NAEFS GUIDANCE IS STILL NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN INGREDIENTS...AND IT SUGGESTS THAT
UPSTREAM MOISTURE TRANSPORT COULD LEAD TO BETTER MOISTURE BEING
INTERCEPTED BEFORE MOVING INTO THE ARKLAMISS. THIS IS A LOT TO
CONSIDER SO FAR OUT IN TIME...AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT ANY
MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS. AS WE GO INTO
MID WEEK...DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE ARKLAMISS WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATIC NORMAL. /EC/
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WILL AFFECT GLH/GWO/HKS/HEZ AND PERHAPS JAN
THIS MORNING THROUGH ABOUT 9 TO 10 AM...ALTHOUGH IFR TO LIFR FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 8 TO 9 AM AROUND HBG/PIB WITH AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF ALSO AFFECTING JAN/HKS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
LAST AROUND GLH...ALTHOUGH EVEN THERE THE AFTERNOON SHOULD LARGELY BE
DEVOID OF ANY ISSUES ASIDE FROM SOUTH WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO
NEAR 30 MPH. ELSEWHERE WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS GUSTY. EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING EXPECT MORE ISSUES FROM LOW CLOUDS ALTHOUGH MVFR
FLIGHT CATS WILL BE MORE LIKELY THAN IFR. /BB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 76 55 74 58 / 0 1 7 12
MERIDIAN 75 53 74 56 / 0 1 10 9
VICKSBURG 78 56 76 59 / 0 3 7 12
HATTIESBURG 77 55 74 56 / 0 2 11 7
NATCHEZ 77 56 76 60 / 0 2 8 10
GREENVILLE 72 57 71 59 / 0 9 9 18
GREENWOOD 75 57 72 59 / 0 7 8 19
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
BB/EC/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
534 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
THE PV1.5 ANOMALY IS STILL ACROSS NCNTL NEB AND EXTENDS BACK INTO
SHERIDAN COUNTY. THE 12Z KLBF UA SOUNDING IS CARRYING 65 KT WINDS
AT 800 MB WHICH THE RAP SHOWS MIXING DOWN BETWEEN 14Z-17Z THIS
MORNING. WINDS ALOFT SHOULD RELAX THEREAFTER ACCORDING TO THE RAP
MODEL.
THE HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH 18Z THIS MORNING IS ON
TRACK. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH OR NEAR HIGH WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP
THIS MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH WINDS ARE STILL UNDERWAY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. VALENTINE ASOS GUSTED TO 68 MPH AT AROUND 2 AM CST.
PIERRE SD...76 MPH AT AROUND 3 AM CST.
THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS ON TRACK AND CAN OPERATE AS SCHEDULED. SOME
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61 COULD BE CLEARED IN AN HOUR OR
TWO...CONDITIONS PERMITTING...AS THE PRESSURE RISES ARE BEGINNING TO
SUBSIDE ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE.
SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL TODAY AND WINDS WILL RELAX MOSTLY ACROSS SWRN
NEB. WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE SANDHILLS...20 TO
30 MPH. WINDS AT 700MB DIMINISH TO 40 TO 50 KT BY MID AFTERNOON.
DEEP VERTICAL MIXING CONTINUES TODAY TO NEAR 700MB IN THE RAP
SOUNDINGS AT VALENTINE AND NORTH PLATTE. UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOMENTUM DOWNWARD WITH THE MIXING. DOUBLE
BARREL SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL COLESCE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES
AIDING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...MAINLY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS TODAY RISE INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 USING THE
WARMEST GUIDANCE.
LIGHT WINDS DEVELOP ALL AREAS TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
MID RANGE...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
TEMPERATURES. A FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SHORTWAVE SOON AFTER. AT 850HPA...SOUTHWEST FLOW AND TEMPS NEAR 11C
AT 06Z SATURDAY TRANSITIONS TO NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPS
AROUND 8C AT 00Z SUNDAY. TRENDED TOWARD MAV AND ECM GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPS BUT STILL 3-5F LOWER THAN THEY SUGGEST. CONCERNS ARE EARLIER
SWITCH TO NORTH WINDS AND EARLIER ONSET OF CLOUDS. KEPT PRECIP
MENTION OUT OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING.
SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WHAT WILL LIKELY BE TOO
MUCH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH MOISTURE WITH A VERY BRIEF PERIOD WHERE LIFT AND MOISTURE
COINCIDE BELOW 700HPA...BUT WITH CONFIDENCE LOW AND QPF WOULD BE
VERY LIMITED...JUST DECIDED TO STAY DRY. MADE LITTLE ADJUSTMENT TO
SUNDAY MAX TEMPS AS CONTINUED CAA AT 850HPA...DROPPING TO NEAR 0C BY
00Z MONDAY...SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. MAY BE BREEZY
SUNDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A WELL MIXED LAYER TO
800HPA WHERE WINDS ARE NEAR 25KTS FROM NAM SOUNDINGS.
LONG RANGE...MONDAY TO THURSDAY...QUASI ZONAL FLOW AT 500HPA TURNS
NEARLY MERIDIONAL BY WEDNESDAY WITH A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. AS SHOWN BY THE EURO...AND THEN NORTHWEST FLOW BY
THURSDAY. SCALED BACK PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. EURO AND GFS MAINLY CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING BEST
FORCING AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH...BUT NEAR SURFACE DRY AIR MAY
BE AN ISSUE AGAIN. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT TEMP ADVECTION OVER THE
PERIOD AND CONSISTENT NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW AT 850HPA CORRESPOND TO
MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
THE MORNING KLBF SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG WINDS...NEAR 65 KT AROUND
800MB WHICH COULD MIX DOWN ANYTIME AFTER SUNRISE. THUS THE PREVAILING
WIND FORECAST IS 29015G25KT WITH OCCASIONAL 30035G50KT UNTIL 18Z.
THIS FORECAST IS WARRANTED THROUGH THE FCST AREA GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE WINDS ALOFT.
VFR AND LESS ERRATIC WIND BEHAVIOR IS EXPECTED 18Z-00Z THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS AND VFR ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
THE RAP...GFS AND HRRR MODELS SHOW DEW POINTS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE 60S.
COUPLED WITH REASONABLY STRONG WINDS...CRITICAL FIRE DANGER SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND SWRN NEB. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
PLACE FOR THOSE AREAS.
AREAS EAST MAY REACH THE HUMIDITY AND WIND CRITERIA BUT FUEL STATUS
IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE FINER SOIL OF THOSE REGIONS WHICH MIGHT KEEP
THE FUELS MORE MOIST.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NEZ004>010-022>028-035>037-056>059-069>071-094.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY TO 7 PM CST /6
PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-210.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
531 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH WINDS ARE STILL UNDERWAY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. VALENTINE ASOS GUSTED TO 68 MPH AT AROUND 2 AM CST.
PIERRE SD...76 MPH AT AROUND 3 AM CST.
THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS ON TRACK AND CAN OPERATE AS SCHEDULED. SOME
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61 COULD BE CLEARED IN AN HOUR OR
TWO...CONDITIONS PERMITTING...AS THE PRESSURE RISES ARE BEGINNING TO
SUBSIDE ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE.
SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL TODAY AND WINDS WILL RELAX MOSTLY ACROSS SWRN
NEB. WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE SANDHILLS...20 TO
30 MPH. WINDS AT 700MB DIMINISH TO 40 TO 50 KT BY MID AFTERNOON.
DEEP VERTICAL MIXING CONTINUES TODAY TO NEAR 700MB IN THE RAP
SOUNDINGS AT VALENTINE AND NORTH PLATTE. UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOMENTUM DOWNWARD WITH THE MIXING. DOUBLE
BARREL SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL COLESCE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES
AIDING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...MAINLY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS TODAY RISE INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 USING THE
WARMEST GUIDANCE.
LIGHT WINDS DEVELOP ALL AREAS TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
MID RANGE...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
TEMPERATURES. A FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SHORTWAVE SOON AFTER. AT 850HPA...SOUTHWEST FLOW AND TEMPS NEAR 11C
AT 06Z SATURDAY TRANSITIONS TO NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPS
AROUND 8C AT 00Z SUNDAY. TRENDED TOWARD MAV AND ECM GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPS BUT STILL 3-5F LOWER THAN THEY SUGGEST. CONCERNS ARE EARLIER
SWITCH TO NORTH WINDS AND EARLIER ONSET OF CLOUDS. KEPT PRECIP
MENTION OUT OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING.
SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WHAT WILL LIKELY BE TOO
MUCH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH MOISTURE WITH A VERY BRIEF PERIOD WHERE LIFT AND MOISTURE
COINCIDE BELOW 700HPA...BUT WITH CONFIDENCE LOW AND QPF WOULD BE
VERY LIMITED...JUST DECIDED TO STAY DRY. MADE LITTLE ADJUSTMENT TO
SUNDAY MAX TEMPS AS CONTINUED CAA AT 850HPA...DROPPING TO NEAR 0C BY
00Z MONDAY...SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. MAY BE BREEZY
SUNDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A WELL MIXED LAYER TO
800HPA WHERE WINDS ARE NEAR 25KTS FROM NAM SOUNDINGS.
LONG RANGE...MONDAY TO THURSDAY...QUASI ZONAL FLOW AT 500HPA TURNS
NEARLY MERIDIONAL BY WEDNESDAY WITH A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. AS SHOWN BY THE EURO...AND THEN NORTHWEST FLOW BY
THURSDAY. SCALED BACK PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. EURO AND GFS MAINLY CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING BEST
FORCING AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH...BUT NEAR SURFACE DRY AIR MAY
BE AN ISSUE AGAIN. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT TEMP ADVECTION OVER THE
PERIOD AND CONSISTENT NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW AT 850HPA CORRESPOND TO
MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
THE MORNING KLBF SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG WINDS...NEAR 65 KT AROUND
800MB WHICH COULD MIX DOWN ANYTIME AFTER SUNRISE. THUS THE PREVAILING
WIND FORECAST IS 29015G25KT WITH OCCASIONAL 30035G50KT UNTIL 18Z.
THIS FORECAST IS WARRANTED THROUGH THE FCST AREA GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE WINDS ALOFT.
VFR AND LESS ERRATIC WIND BEHAVIOR IS EXPECTED 18Z-00Z THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS AND VFR ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
THE RAP...GFS AND HRRR MODELS SHOW DEW POINTS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE 60S.
COUPLED WITH REASONABLY STRONG WINDS...CRITICAL FIRE DANGER SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND SWRN NEB. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
PLACE FOR THOSE AREAS.
AREAS EAST MAY REACH THE HUMIDITY AND WIND CRITERIA BUT FUEL STATUS
IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE FINER SOIL OF THOSE REGIONS WHICH MIGHT KEEP
THE FUELS MORE MOIST.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NEZ004>010-022>028-035>037-056>059-069>071-094.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY TO 7 PM CST /6
PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-210.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
759 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILDER AIR WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA. COOLER
AIR WILL SLOWLY EDGE BACK INTO THE KEYSTONE STATE LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG A SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS LOW COULD BRING A PERIOD OF WET SNOW
AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN OR WET SNOW IN THE SOUTH. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR
MONDAY...PRECEDING A POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FANTASTIC...THOUGH FLEETING PINKISH SUNRISE NOTED HERE IN
CENTRAL PENN AROUND 1145Z. A THICKENING CIRRUS/ALTO STRATUS /AND
SOME NS ACROSS NWRN PENN/ WAS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH EARLY TODAY. A FEW NORTH/SOUTH STRIPES OF VERY LIGHT
SNOW WERE OCCURRING ACROSS NWRN PENN WHERE SWRLY ISENTROPIC LIFT
WAS MAXIMIZED AT THE NOSE OF A 70 KT JET AT 850 MB ACRS THE OHIO
VALLEY.
LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR PICKED UP ON THIS FEATURE BRINGING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO NRN PENN THIS MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN PENN THROUGH
TODAY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES /OR SLEET PELLETS/ MAKING IT
TO THE GROUND FORM THE MID CLOUD DECK AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-80
CORRIDOR.
8H BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THREAT OF FROZEN PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT NE OF
THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SKIES BRIGHTENING A BIT. DESPITE
RAPID WARMING ALOFT...THE ACTUAL SFC WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST
OF THE AREA TODAY WITH MCLDY SKIES SLOWING THE WARMUP. HIGH TEMPS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM AROUND FREEZING OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS....TO THE MID 30S OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WITH
UPPER 30S NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A POTENT SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW WILL BE MOVING FROM THE UPPER GLAKES
TO SCENT QUEBEC TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...WITH THE CORE OF A
50 TO 60 KT SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY LLJ SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD.
A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW AND FLAT UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE COULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH UVVEL FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF PENN TONIGHT.
COLDEST MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE FAR
SE...WHERE SOME SNOW COVER REMAINS. ACROSS THE NE...THERE IS LESS
SNOW COVER...AND THE P-GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTER.
FOR SAT...LEFT MENTION OF ISOLATED TO SCTD SHOWERS IN THE FCST FOR
THE MID MORNING HOURS...THEN AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING AND DRY
CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH A
SW BREEZE GUSTING BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH AT TIMES.
BASED ON GUIDANCE AND EXPERIENCE WITH STRONG WEST TO SW
FLOW...EXPECT QUITE MILD TEMPS SATURDAY...EVEN WITH THE SNOWPACK.
HIGHS SAT WILL BE IN THE U40S NORTH...AND LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SRN PENN RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MEAN SFC-800 MB FLOW SLOWLY VEERS AROUND FROM WESTERLY TO WNW
BY SUNDAY MORNING PRIOR TO A WEAK CFRONT SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE
STATE.
COOLER AIR WILL OOZE SOUTH INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
AS A WEAK CFRONT DRIFTS TO NEAR THE MASON/DIXON LINE AND CLOUDS
THICKEN UP FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING AND RELATIVELY
WEAK WAVE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE. EMPLOYING A CONSENSUS...ALL-MODEL
BLEND TEMPS WERE LOWERED BY SEVERAL DEG F IN MOST PLACES SUNDAY.
IN ADDITION...POPS WERE INCREASED BY 20-30 PERCENT WITH THE MAIN
AXIS OF PRECIP SHIFTED SOUTH BY NEARLY 100 KM...BASED ON 00Z
U.S./EC AND ENS TRENDS.
THE NORTHERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF PENN SHOULD BECOME COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT WET SNOW AND UP TO A FEW INCHES OF ACCUM...WHILE
925-850 MB WET BULD TEMPS NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE I-76
CORRIDOR SUGGEST RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN RAIN...OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL LARGE SPREAD WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND POTENTIAL LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF RAIN/WET SNOW - CREATED
BY THE STRONG SOUTHERN GFS OUTLIER...THAT ONLY BRUSHES THE
SOUTHERN BORDER OF PENN WITH SOME LIGHT QPF DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER MONDAY...A POTENTIALLY
HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM FORMS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND HEADS UP ALONG...OR JUST OFF THE EAST COAST FOR LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE TRACK/STRENGTH AND IMPACT DETAILS OF THE SYSTEM FOR THE LATE
TUESDAY - MID WEEK PERIOD WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW NRN AND
SRN STREAM ENERGY PHASES. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS
FCST OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT/WED...WITH CHC POPS FURTHER NW.
THERE/S STILL A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE 00/06Z OPER MODELS AND ENS
FCST SYSTEMS BY MID WEEK. CONTINUED TO EMPLOY A COMBINATION OF
CURRENT SUPERBLEND AND PRIOR DATA TO ARRIVE AT THE GENERAL
LOCATION AND TIMING OF WEATHER FEATURES AND QPF. THE RAIN...SNOW
LINE COULD BE ONCE AGAIN BE ACROSS THE CWA...AS WAS THE CASE ON
THIS LAST EVENT. ANYWAY...THIS IS STILL A DAY 5-6 FCST AND A LOT
WILL CHANGE BEFORE THE STORM SHOWS ITS TRUE COLORS AND WE CAN BE
CONFIDENT IN A MORE DETAILED FORECAST OF PRECIP TYPE AND TIMING.
TIL THEN...ENJOY THE MILDER WEATHER. THE MILD SPELL WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME OF THE SNOW PACK TO MELT AND DRAIN OFF SLOW ENOUGH TO
ALLOW AREA RIVERS TO SLOWLY EDGE BACK DOWN FOR THE HEAVY RAIN ON
TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIRRUS BAND APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SHOULD BRING MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS BUT NOT REDUCE ANY CONDITIONS. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AIRSPACE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY.
EXPECT STRENGTHENING SRLY WINDS ESPECIALLY AT MID AND UPPER
LEVELS. LLWS TO CENTRAL AND WRN TAF SITES AS SFC WINDS WILL START
OUT LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY BELOW THE MDT TO STRONG WINDS
ALOFT. THE APPROACHING SYSTEM TONIGHT COULD REDUCE CIGS DOWN TO
MVFR FOR WESTERN TAF SITES BY 03Z AND FOR CENTRAL TAF SITES AFTER
06Z AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR.
SUN...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH RAIN OR SNOW...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MON-TUE...A CHC OF SOME SNOW AND RAIN...BUT MAINLY VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
703 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILDER AIR WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA. COOLER
AIR WILL SLOWLY EDGE BACK INTO THE KEYSTONE STATE LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG A SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS LOW COULD BRING A PERIOD OF WET SNOW
AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN OR WET SNOW IN THE SOUTH. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR
MONDAY...PRECEDING A POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FANTASTIC...THOUGH FLEETING PINKISH SUNRISE NOTED HERE IN
CENTRAL PENN AROUND 1145Z. A THICKENING CIRRUS/ALTO STRATUS /AND
SOME NS ACROSS NWRN PENN/ WAS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH EARLY TODAY. A FEW NORTH/SOUTH STRIPES OF VERY LIGHT
SNOW WERE OCCURRING ACROSS NWRN PENN WHERE SWRLY ISENTROPIC LIFT
WAS MAXIMIZED AT THE NOSE OF A 70 KT JET AT 850 MB ACRS THE OHIO
VALLEY.
LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR PICKED UP ON THIS FEATURE BRINGING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO NRN PENN THIS MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN PENN THROUGH
TODAY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES /OR SLEET PELLETS/ MAKING IT
TO THE GROUND FORM THE MID CLOUD DECK AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-80
CORRIDOR.
8H BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THREAT OF FROZEN PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT NE OF
THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SKIES BRIGHTENING A BIT. DESPITE
RAPID WARMING ALOFT...THE ACTUAL SFC WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST
OF THE AREA TODAY WITH MCLDY SKIES SLOWING THE WARMUP. HIGH TEMPS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM AROUND FREEZING OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS....TO THE MID 30S OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WITH
UPPER 30S NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A POTENT SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW WILL BE MOVING FROM THE UPPER GLAKES
TO SCENT QUEBEC TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...WITH THE CORE OF A
50 TO 60 KT SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY LLJ SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD.
A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW AND FLAT UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE COULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH UVVEL FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF PENN TONIGHT.
COLDEST MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE FAR
SE...WHERE SOME SNOW COVER REMAINS. ACROSS THE NE...THERE IS LESS
SNOW COVER...AND THE P-GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTER.
FOR SAT...LEFT MENTION OF ISOLATED TO SCTD SHOWERS IN THE FCST FOR
THE MID MORNING HOURS...THEN AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING AND DRY
CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH A
SW BREEZE GUSTING BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH AT TIMES.
BASED ON GUIDANCE AND EXPERIENCE WITH STRONG WEST TO SW
FLOW...EXPECT QUITE MILD TEMPS SATURDAY...EVEN WITH THE SNOWPACK.
HIGHS SAT WILL BE IN THE U40S NORTH...AND LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SRN PENN RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MEAN SFC-800 MB FLOW SLOWLY VEERS AROUND FROM WESTERLY TO WNW
BY SUNDAY MORNING PRIOR TO A WEAK CFRONT SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE
STATE.
COOLER AIR WILL OOZE SOUTH INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
AS A WEAK CFRONT DRIFTS TO NEAR THE MASON/DIXON LINE AND CLOUDS
THICKEN UP FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING AND RELATIVELY
WEAK WAVE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE. EMPLOYING A CONSENSUS...ALL-MODEL
BLEND TEMPS WERE LOWERED BY SEVERAL DEG F IN MOST PLACES SUNDAY.
IN ADDITION...POPS WERE INCREASED BY 20-30 PERCENT WITH THE MAIN
AXIS OF PRECIP SHIFTED SOUTH BY NEARLY 100 KM...BASED ON 00Z
U.S./EC AND ENS TRENDS.
THE NORTHERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF PENN SHOULD BECOME COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT WET SNOW AND UP TO A FEW INCHES OF ACCUM...WHILE
925-850 MB WET BULD TEMPS NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE I-76
CORRIDOR SUGGEST RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN RAIN...OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL LARGE SPREAD WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND POTENTIAL LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF RAIN/WET SNOW - CREATED
BY THE STRONG SOUTHERN GFS OUTLIER...THAT ONLY BRUSHES THE
SOUTHERN BORDER OF PENN WITH SOME LIGHT QPF DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER MONDAY...A POTENTIALLY
HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM FORMS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND HEADS UP ALONG...OR JUST OFF THE EAST COAST FOR LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE TRACK/STRENGTH AND IMPACT DETAILS OF THE SYSTEM FOR THE LATE
TUESDAY - MID WEEK PERIOD WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW NRN AND
SRN STREAM ENERGY PHASES. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS
FCST OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT/WED...WITH CHC POPS FURTHER NW.
THERE/S STILL A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE 00/06Z OPER MODELS AND ENS
FCST SYSTEMS BY MID WEEK. CONTINUED TO EMPLOY A COMBINATION OF
CURRENT SUPERBLEND AND PRIOR DATA TO ARRIVE AT THE GENERAL
LOCATION AND TIMING OF WEATHER FEATURES AND QPF. THE RAIN...SNOW
LINE COULD BE ONCE AGAIN BE ACROSS THE CWA...AS WAS THE CASE ON
THIS LAST EVENT. ANYWAY...THIS IS STILL A DAY 5-6 FCST AND A LOT
WILL CHANGE BEFORE THE STORM SHOWS ITS TRUE COLORS AND WE CAN BE
CONFIDENT IN A MORE DETAILED FORECAST OF PRECIP TYPE AND TIMING.
TIL THEN...ENJOY THE MILDER WEATHER. THE MILD SPELL WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME OF THE SNOW PACK TO MELT AND DRAIN OFF SLOW ENOUGH TO
ALLOW AREA RIVERS TO SLOWLY EDGE BACK DOWN FOR THE HEAVY RAIN ON
TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD VFR OVERNIGHT. CIRRUS BAND
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SHOULD BRING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS BUT NOT
REDUCE ANY CONDITIONS. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AIRSPACE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. EXPECT STRENGTHENING
SRLY WINDS ESPECIALLY AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. LLWS TO CENTRAL
AND WRN TAF SITES AS SFC WINDS WILL START OUT LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BELOW THE MDT TO STRONG WINDS ALOFT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR.
SUN...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH RAIN OR SNOW...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MON-TUE...A CHC OF SOME SNOW AND RAIN...BUT MAINLY VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
633 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILDER AIR WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA. COOLER
AIR WILL SLOWLY EDGE BACK INTO THE KEYSTONE STATE LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG A SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS LOW COULD BRING A PERIOD OF WET SNOW
AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN OR WET SNOW IN THE SOUTH. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR
MONDAY...PRECEDING A POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
THICKENING CIRRUS/ALTO STRATUS /AND SOME NS ACROSS NWRN PENN/ WAS
SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH EARLY TODAY. A FEW
NORTH/SOUTH STRIPES OF VERY LIGHT SNOW WERE OCCURRING ACROSS NWRN
PENN WHERE SWRLY ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS MAXIMIZED AT THE NOSE OF A 70
KT JET AT 850 MB ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY.
LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR PICKED UP ON THIS FEATURE BRINGING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO NRN PENN THIS MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN PENN THROUGH
TODAY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES /OR SLEET PELLETS/ MAKING IT
TO THE GROUND FORM THE MID CLOUD DECK AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-80
CORRIDOR.
8H BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THREAT OF FROZEN PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT NE OF
THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SKIES BRIGHTENING A BIT. DESPITE
RAPID WARMING ALOFT...THE ACTUAL SFC WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST
OF THE AREA TODAY WITH MCLDY SKIES SLOWING THE WARMUP. HIGH TEMPS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM AROUND FREEZING OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS....TO THE MID 30S OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WITH
UPPER 30S NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A POTENT SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW WILL BE MOVING FROM THE UPPER GLAKES
TO SCENT QUEBEC TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...WITH THE CORE OF A
50 TO 60 KT SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY LLJ SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD.
A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW AND FLAT UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE COULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH UVVEL FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF PENN TONIGHT.
COLDEST MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE FAR
SE...WHERE SOME SNOW COVER REMAINS. ACROSS THE NE...THERE IS LESS
SNOW COVER...AND THE P-GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTER.
FOR SAT...LEFT MENTION OF ISOLATED TO SCTD SHOWERS IN THE FCST FOR
THE MID MORNING HOURS...THEN AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING AND DRY
CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH A
SW BREEZE GUSTING BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH AT TIMES.
BASED ON GUIDANCE AND EXPERIENCE WITH STRONG WEST TO SW
FLOW...EXPECT QUITE MILD TEMPS SATURDAY...EVEN WITH THE SNOWPACK.
HIGHS SAT WILL BE IN THE U40S NORTH...AND LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SRN PENN RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MEAN SFC-800 MB FLOW SLOWLY VEERS AROUND FROM WESTERLY TO WNW
BY SUNDAY MORNING PRIOR TO A WEAK CFRONT SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE
STATE.
COOLER AIR WILL OOZE SOUTH INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
AS A WEAK CFRONT DRIFTS TO NEAR THE MASON/DIXON LINE AND CLOUDS
THICKEN UP FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING AND RELATIVELY
WEAK WAVE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE. EMPLOYING A CONSENSUS...ALL-MODEL
BLEND TEMPS WERE LOWERED BY SEVERAL DEG F IN MOST PLACES SUNDAY.
IN ADDITION...POPS WERE INCREASED BY 20-30 PERCENT WITH THE MAIN
AXIS OF PRECIP SHIFTED SOUTH BY NEARLY 100 KM...BASED ON 00Z
U.S./EC AND ENS TRENDS.
THE NORTHERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF PENN SHOULD BECOME COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT WET SNOW AND UP TO A FEW INCHES OF ACCUM...WHILE
925-850 MB WET BULD TEMPS NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE I-76
CORRIDOR SUGGEST RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN RAIN...OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL LARGE SPREAD WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND POTENTIAL LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF RAIN/WET SNOW - CREATED
BY THE STRONG SOUTHERN GFS OUTLIER...THAT ONLY BRUSHES THE
SOUTHERN BORDER OF PENN WITH SOME LIGHT QPF DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER MONDAY...A POTENTIALLY
HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM FORMS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND HEADS UP ALONG...OR JUST OFF THE EAST COAST FOR LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE TRACK/STRENGTH AND IMPACT DETAILS OF THE SYSTEM FOR THE LATE
TUESDAY - MID WEEK PERIOD WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW NRN AND
SRN STREAM ENERGY PHASES. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS
FCST OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT/WED...WITH CHC POPS FURTHER NW.
THERE/S STILL A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE 00/06Z OPER MODELS AND ENS
FCST SYSTEMS BY MID WEEK. CONTINUED TO EMPLOY A COMBINATION OF
CURRENT SUPERBLEND AND PRIOR DATA TO ARRIVE AT THE GENERAL
LOCATION AND TIMING OF WEATHER FEATURES AND QPF. THE RAIN...SNOW
LINE COULD BE ONCE AGAIN BE ACROSS THE CWA...AS WAS THE CASE ON
THIS LAST EVENT. ANYWAY...THIS IS STILL A DAY 5-6 FCST AND A LOT
WILL CHANGE BEFORE THE STORM SHOWS ITS TRUE COLORS AND WE CAN BE
CONFIDENT IN A MORE DETAILED FORECAST OF PRECIP TYPE AND TIMING.
TIL THEN...ENJOY THE MILDER WEATHER. THE MILD SPELL WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME OF THE SNOW PACK TO MELT AND DRAIN OFF SLOW ENOUGH TO
ALLOW AREA RIVERS TO SLOWLY EDGE BACK DOWN FOR THE HEAVY RAIN ON
TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD VFR OVERNIGHT. CIRRUS BAND
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SHOULD BRING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS BUT NOT
REDUCE ANY CONDITIONS. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AIRSPACE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. EXPECT STRENGTHENING
SRLY WINDS ESPECIALLY AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. LLWS TO CENTRAL
AND WRN TAF SITES AS SFC WINDS WILL START OUT LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BELOW THE MDT TO STRONG WINDS ALOFT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR.
SUN...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH RAIN OR SNOW...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MON-TUE...A CHC OF SOME SNOW AND RAIN...BUT MAINLY VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1002 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.UPDATE...TODAY
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
HAVE UPGRADED ALL OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND GRANT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN TO A HIGH WIND WARNING. SEEING SEVERAL REPORTS OF 35 TO
40 SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN IOWA. ALSO...THERE HAS BEEN REPORTS OF 50 KTS
GUSTS AT WEBSTER CITY AND DUBUQUE. AS MIXING INCREASES THIS
MORNING WE SHOULD SEE THESE STRONGER WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA
AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE REST OF THE WIND ADVISORYIS
ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
ALL EYES ON TODAY/S WIND EVENT. 19.09Z ANALYSIS SHOWS A 988 HPA
SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL SD WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 7 TO 8 HPA
THREE HOUR PRESSURE RISE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE
WHERE SURFACE GUSTS FROM 50 TO 60 KTS ARE OCCURRING. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS SURFACE LOW MOVING DUE EAST INTO
CENTRAL MN THROUGH 12Z AND THEN TAKING A SLIGHT JOG TO THE
NORTHEAST...MOVING INTO NORTHERN WI BY 18Z. AS A RESULT...BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO THE WEST
AND INCREASE RAPIDLY AFTER PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GFS/
ECMWF 0-1 KM WINDS INCREASE FROM 45 TO 50 KTS BY MID-LATE MORNING
WHILE THE NAM/RAP ARE A BIT STRONGER FROM 50 TO 55 KTS. IMPRESSIVE
DARKENING ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND STRONG DIVERGENT Q-VECTOR
SIGNAL SUGGEST MUCH OF THIS FLOW WILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE
SURFACE.
STILL SOME CONCERN ABOUT THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER TODAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT HANDLING THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE WELL DUE
TO SNOW COVER...THUS IMPACTING THEIR DEPICTION OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S. MODIFYING THE 19.08Z RAP SOUNDING AT 18Z FOR
KRST TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE HIGHER TEMPERATURES SHOWS A MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER TO NEARLY 850 HPA WHERE WINDS ARE NEAR 60 KTS. IF
THE MIXED LAYER CAN TAP INTO THESE STRONGER WINDS...SURFACE GUSTS
AT OR ABOVE WARNING CRITERIA (58 MPH) ARE STILL POSSIBLE WEST OF
THE MS RIVER. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS IF CLEARING
MATERIALIZES AROUND PEAK HEATING OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HELP
TRANSPORT HIGHER MOMENTUM FLOW TO THE SURFACE. ALL SAID...
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO HOIST A HIGH WIND WARNING AT
THIS TIME...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH VERY CAREFULLY OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE. EITHER WAY...A VERY WINDY
DAY ON TAP.
STRONGEST WINDS ARE A BIT SLOWER TO ARRIVE THIS MORNING...SO
DELAYED START OF WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 15Z FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA MINUS TAYLOR COUNTY. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE BETWEEN 15
AND 18Z...PEAKING AROUND THE NOON HOUR AND THEN SLOWLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL INVERSION AFTER
SUNSET SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO RAPIDLY FALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
AFTER 00Z. INCREASED GUSTS FROM 40 TO 55 MPH WEST OF THE MS RIVER
AND 35 TO 50 MPH TO THE EAST. SEE LATEST ADVISORY FOR MORE
DETAILS.
CONCERNING PRECIPITATION TODAY...LATEST RAP/HRRR ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT....MOVING THE LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY ACROSS SD MAINLY
NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR. STILL SEEING A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR
TWO...SO WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE DUE TO MELTING SNOW...SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AREAS FARTHER
SOUTH ARE TOO DRY TO GET MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES.
TONIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
STAYING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL WITH NO MAJOR
STORMS ON THE HORIZON. THE NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE
SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS A COUPLE WEAK SHORT-WAVES DROP
SOUTH FROM CANADA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MOST PRECIP THAT
DEVELOPS SHOULD BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE FOR
AREAS THAT DROP BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER MILD WITH MOST AREAS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.
NIGHTTIME LOWS DROP BACK INTO THE 20S SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. WITH WARM TEMPERATURES...RISES ON
RIVERS ARE EXPECTED AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS. SEE
HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
MAIN CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHERN WI
TODAY DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. SOUTH OF THE
LOW TRACK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOW EXPECTED...WITH PERHAPS SOME
BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING. BEHIND
THE FRONT...THE BRISK SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
WEST AND VERY STRONG. WEST WINDS 25-30KTS G35-45KTS ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF SITES...MAINLY BETWEEN 17Z-22Z WITH THE STRONGER OF THE
WINDS AT THE HIGHER TERRAIN/OPEN COUNTRY AREAS LIKE KRST. A WIND
ADVISORY IS POSTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES FROM 19.15Z THRU 20.00Z.
THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SOUTHWEST AT 15-20KTS AN LOCALLY GUSTY THRU TONIGHT. ONLY SCT
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
LOOKING INTO SNOW MELT OF THE 1-2 INCH WATER EQUIVALENT SNOW PACK
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BRING RISES TO MANY RIVERS. RIGHT
NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RISES WILL OCCUR ALONG
THE KICKAPOO RIVER...ALTHOUGH WATER LEVELS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
OVERALL...EXPECT POSSIBLE ICE JAMS ON RIVERS AND RISES TO NEAR
FLOOD STAGE IN SOME BASINS. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION FROM WEATHER
SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR ENHANCING THE FLOOD THREAT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ061.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ029-032>034-
041>044-053>055.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
IA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>011-018-
019-029-030.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
525 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
ALL EYES ON TODAY/S WIND EVENT. 19.09Z ANALYSIS SHOWS A 988 HPA
SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL SD WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 7 TO 8 HPA
THREE HOUR PRESSURE RISE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE
WHERE SURFACE GUSTS FROM 50 TO 60 KTS ARE OCCURRING. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS SURFACE LOW MOVING DUE EAST INTO
CENTRAL MN THROUGH 12Z AND THEN TAKING A SLIGHT JOG TO THE
NORTHEAST...MOVING INTO NORTHERN WI BY 18Z. AS A RESULT...BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO THE WEST
AND INCREASE RAPIDLY AFTER PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GFS/
ECMWF 0-1 KM WINDS INCREASE FROM 45 TO 50 KTS BY MID-LATE MORNING
WHILE THE NAM/RAP ARE A BIT STRONGER FROM 50 TO 55 KTS. IMPRESSIVE
DARKENING ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND STRONG DIVERGENT Q-VECTOR
SIGNAL SUGGEST MUCH OF THIS FLOW WILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE
SURFACE.
STILL SOME CONCERN ABOUT THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER TODAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT HANDLING THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE WELL DUE
TO SNOW COVER...THUS IMPACTING THEIR DEPICTION OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S. MODIFYING THE 19.08Z RAP SOUNDING AT 18Z FOR
KRST TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE HIGHER TEMPERATURES SHOWS A MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER TO NEARLY 850 HPA WHERE WINDS ARE NEAR 60 KTS. IF
THE MIXED LAYER CAN TAP INTO THESE STRONGER WINDS...SURFACE GUSTS
AT OR ABOVE WARNING CRITERIA (58 MPH) ARE STILL POSSIBLE WEST OF
THE MS RIVER. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS IF CLEARING
MATERIALIZES AROUND PEAK HEATING OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HELP
TRANSPORT HIGHER MOMENTUM FLOW TO THE SURFACE. ALL SAID...
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO HOIST A HIGH WIND WARNING AT
THIS TIME...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH VERY CAREFULLY OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE. EITHER WAY...A VERY WINDY
DAY ON TAP.
STRONGEST WINDS ARE A BIT SLOWER TO ARRIVE THIS MORNING...SO
DELAYED START OF WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 15Z FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA MINUS TAYLOR COUNTY. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE BETWEEN 15
AND 18Z...PEAKING AROUND THE NOON HOUR AND THEN SLOWLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL INVERSION AFTER
SUNSET SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO RAPIDLY FALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
AFTER 00Z. INCREASED GUSTS FROM 40 TO 55 MPH WEST OF THE MS RIVER
AND 35 TO 50 MPH TO THE EAST. SEE LATEST ADVISORY FOR MORE
DETAILS.
CONCERNING PRECIPITATION TODAY...LATEST RAP/HRRR ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT....MOVING THE LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY ACROSS SD MAINLY
NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR. STILL SEEING A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR
TWO...SO WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE DUE TO MELTING SNOW...SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AREAS FARTHER
SOUTH ARE TOO DRY TO GET MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES.
TONIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
STAYING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL WITH NO MAJOR
STORMS ON THE HORIZON. THE NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE
SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS A COUPLE WEAK SHORT-WAVES DROP
SOUTH FROM CANADA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MOST PRECIP THAT
DEVELOPS SHOULD BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE FOR
AREAS THAT DROP BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER MILD WITH MOST AREAS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.
NIGHTTIME LOWS DROP BACK INTO THE 20S SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. WITH WARM TEMPERATURES...RISES ON
RIVERS ARE EXPECTED AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS. SEE
HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
MAIN CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHERN WI
TODAY DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. SOUTH OF THE
LOW TRACK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOW EXPECTED...WITH PERHAPS SOME
BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING. BEHIND
THE FRONT...THE BRISK SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
WEST AND VERY STRONG. WEST WINDS 25-30KTS G35-45KTS ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF SITES...MAINLY BETWEEN 17Z-22Z WITH THE STRONGER OF THE
WINDS AT THE HIGHER TERRAIN/OPEN COUNTRY AREAS LIKE KRST. A WIND
ADVISORY IS POSTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES FROM 19.15Z THRU 20.00Z.
THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SOUTHWEST AT 15-20KTS AN LOCALLY GUSTY THRU TONIGHT. ONLY SCT
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
LOOKING INTO SNOW MELT OF THE 1-2 INCH WATER EQUIVALENT SNOW PACK
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BRING RISES TO MANY RIVERS. RIGHT
NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RISES WILL OCCUR ALONG
THE KICKAPOO RIVER...ALTHOUGH WATER LEVELS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
OVERALL...EXPECT POSSIBLE ICE JAMS ON RIVERS AND RISES TO NEAR
FLOOD STAGE IN SOME BASINS. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION FROM WEATHER
SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR ENHANCING THE FLOOD THREAT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR WIZ029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096.
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
917 AM PST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE
FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES PEAKING WELL ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY. ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TDY-SUN)
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BAY AREA TODAY WITH THE
TAIL END OF IT REACHING THE SLO COUNTY COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
IT`S EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST WITH NOT MUCH LEFT
BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA. SO AT MOST JUST SOME CLOUDS
EXPECTED UP THERE THIS AFTERNOON BUT NO PRECIP. HIGHS MOST AREAS
TODAY SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. SOME
BREEZY NORTH WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE
SANTA YNEZ RANGE TODAY AND TONIGHT MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY
LEVELS AND WILL EVALUATE WHETHER AN ADVISORY IS NEEDED.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SAT...ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WILL RISE A BIT. OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL N-S
GRADIENTS MAY BE STEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY N WINDS
THRU AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND
THRU THE I-5 CORRIDOR...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS. EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS...SAT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE UP A FEW DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON SAT.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE PACIFIC TO THE SW
OF THE REGION SAT NIGHT AND EXPAND INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY...CAUSING A DECENT RISE IN HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES.
LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE N-S GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE...BUT THERE WILL
BE LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...SO EXPECT ONLY LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS IN THOSE LOCATIONS THAT ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO NLY WINDS.
MAX TEMPS WILL RISE ADDITIONALLY ON SUN...WITH TEMPS PROBABLY
REACHING OR EXCEEDING THE 80 DEGREES MARK IN THE WARMEST LOCATIONS
IN THE VLYS AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.
.LONG TERM...(MON-THU)
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL CONT TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION ON MON AS
THE UPPER HIGH IN THE PAC DRIFTS EWD TOWARD THE REGION. THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE NELY MON MORNING...SO EXPECT SOME GUSTY
NE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME...IT
DOES NOT LOOK TOO SIGNIFICANT...WITH LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL WARMING ON
MONDAY...WITH TEMPS PROBABLY WELL INTO THE 80S IN SOME OF THE
WARMER LOCATIONS IN COASTAL AND VLY AREAS. THE UPPER HIGH WILL
BEGIN TO FLATTEN ON TUE...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY BECOME WEAK
ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD STILL BE QUITE WARM ON
TUE...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN. A TROUGH MOVING INTO NRN CA WILL CAUSE HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES TO FALL ACROSS THE REGION ON WED...SO EXPECT MORE
SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD COOLING. STILL...MAX TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY BE SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT MOSTLY MINOR CHANGES ON
THU AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SETS UP OVER THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...19/1105Z...
AT 1100Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.
OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. ALL SITES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS
EVENING...THERE WILL BE SOME NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...AND A 20% CHANCE OF LIGHT TURBULENCE/LLWS
AT KSBA.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...19/200 AM...
FOR THE OUTER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUATION OF HAZARDOUS SEAS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE SWELL SUBSIDES ON
SATURDAY. ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
WITH A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AND
A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
CONTINUATION OF HAZARDOUS SEAS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH
TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. OTHER THAN THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF
THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ZONES 34-35-40-41-87. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ZONE 39. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM
PST SATURDAY FOR ZONES 645-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3
AM PST SATURDAY FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION...THOMPSON
MARINE...THOMPSON
SYNOPSIS...MUNROE
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
857 AM PST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Light rain with occasionally moderate snow over the mountains
today. Decreasing showers tonight. Gusty south winds today
especially northern Sacramento valley and southern Cascades. Dry
through the weekend with the next chance of precipitation for
interior NorCal at the end of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Did a quick update to the winds this morning to increase the
forecast speeds between now and early afternoon. Redding & Red
Bluff Airports have been reporting sustained winds 20-30 mph in
the past couple of hours with gusts 35 to 40 mph. GFSLamp Model
guidance supports these wind speeds in the Northern Sacramento
Valley through about 1 or 2 pm this afternoon. The current Wind
Advisory is valid through 4 pm today...will watch observations
this afternoon to determine if we need to cancel it a couple hours
earlier. As for rain/snow...forecast still looks on track in terms
of timing and location. The HRRR shows that much of the
precipitation will be along the I-80 corridor and northward today.
Have added the possibility of thunderstorms to the Northern
Sacramento Valley. The HRRR is suggesting that the typical
convergence line could set up again sometime after 10 am through
the afternoon...primarily across Shasta County. If it develops,
this could impact the I-5 corridor near the vicinity of Redding &
Red Bluff and move towards the Burney area. JBB
.Previous Discussion...A weak disturbance moving through far
norcal at this time is bringing some light precipitation just
north of the CWA and may see a little light rain dipping southward
into the forecast area during the early morning hours. A weak
frontal band now just off the coast will be moving inland later
this morning. As it moves inland, surface gradients will increase
bringing increasing winds along with light to occasionally
moderate precipitation. Current surface gradient between Medford
and Sacramento about 9 mb and increasing. As gradients
increase...should see wind advisory windspeeds in the northern
Sacramento valley sometime after about 14z and a few hours after
in the central valley. Have updated the wind advisory currently
out to account for lighter winds this morning. Light precipitation
will be moving into the southern Cascades by about 18z this
morning with the main frontal band crossing the southern Cascades
and northern Sierra during the afternoon. Will keep current winter
weather advisory now in place with no change in timing although
snowfall amounts over the northern Sierra may be borderline for
advisory. Any snow that does fall will definitely impact the
passes due to cold air in place keeping snow levels generally
below 5500 feet. Cold air behind the front will also keep daytime
highs today a little below normal.
Steady rain or snow will transition to showers this evening as the
front shifts eastward with an end to all precipitation expected by
morning as upper ridging begins to develop. At this time...the
weekend looks dry with temperatures warming under the west coast
ridge. Dry conditions and warm temperatures continue under west
coast ridging going into next week with daytime highs on Monday
expected to be 10 or more degrees above normal.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)
Strong upper ridging over Interior NorCal Tuesday shifts into the
Great Basin as short wave trough lifts across northern portions
of California Tuesday night into Wednesday. Given strength of
ridge and relative weakness of modeled trough, expect any
associated precipitation will remain north/northwest of the
forecast area. Upper ridging then rebuilds back over NorCal
Thursday. Differences in strength of next short wave trough that
is forecast to move through later Friday into Saturday leads to
decreased confidence in forecast during this period.
&&
.AVIATION...
Westerly flow aloft as next Pacific frontal system moves through
today. For valley locations...mainly VFR next 24 hours except
local MVFR/IFR possible in showers. For the mountains...widespread
MVFR with areas of IFR/LIFR possible in snow showers through 14z
Sat. Areas of southerly winds 20-30 kts with gusts around 35 kts
this morning through 22-0z today especially near KRDD and KRBL.
Southwesterly winds gusts up to 45 kts possible over higher
terrain.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM PST this evening for West
Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas County/Lassen Park.
Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Central
Sacramento Valley.
Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Northern
Sacramento Valley.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1030 AM MST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MST FRI FEB 19 2016
CURRENTLY...WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING ACROSS THE REGION AS OF
10Z...WITH GUSTS GENERALLY BELOW 50 KTS MOST LOCATIONS. WILL GO
AHEAD AND CANCEL ALL HIGH WIND WARNINGS A LITTLE EARLY WITH NEW
FORECAST...AS MOST MODELS SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS HAVE PEAKED ACROSS
THE REGION. HRRR SUGGESTS SOUTHERN I25 CORRIDOR AND EAST SLOPES OF
THE SANGRES WILL LIKELY BE LAST TO DIMINISH...WITH STILL A FEW
GUSTS IN THE 50-60 MPH RANGE THROUGH ABOUT 8 AM.
TODAY/TONIGHT...STILL BREEZY TO WINDY AT TIMES OVER THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY AS MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN THE 30-50 KT RANGE...THOUGH
POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME/DAMAGING WINDS HAS ENDED. OVER THE
PLAINS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES QUICKLY BY THIS
MORNING...REPLACED BY DEEPENING LEE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS
WESTERLY UPPER FLOW CONTINUES. WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF I25 WILL
SWING BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY...INCREASING IN SPEED
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE KS BORDER. FAR EASTERN PLAINS
MAY SEE MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ONCE WINDS INCREASE...BUT WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY CREEPING UPWARD TO AROUND 15 PERCENT...SUSPECT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SKATE BY WITHOUT A FIRE HIGHLIGHT NEEDED. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER MOST AREAS THAN YESTERDAY`S EXTREME VALUES...THOUGH
MOST LOCATIONS WILL STILL RUN SOME 10-20F WARMER THAN SEASONAL
AVERAGES. WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WESTERLY FLOW
WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MIN TEMPS RATHER MILD ONCE
AGAIN...WITH READINGS IN THE 20S/30S MOST LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MST FRI FEB 19 2016
...WARM START TO THE WEEKEND...
...BRIEF RETURN TO WINTER EARLY NEXT WEEK...
LONG STRING OF UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY...AS OUR AREA REMAINS UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. H7 TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE PLUS TWO TO FOUR RANGE...AND WITH WRLY WINDS...SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN GET CLOSE TO OR EXCEED THE 70 DEGREE MARK AT KPUB AND OVER
MUCH OF THE PLAINS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING AND
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE DVD BY LATE SAT OR EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT IT LOOKS PRETTY DRY UNTIL SUN NIGHT...WHEN THE ERN MTS
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SHSN. LATEST NAM IS DRY FOR THIS PERIOD WHILE
THE GFS HAS SOME LIGHT QPF OVER SERN CO. SHOULD SEE SOME UPSLOPE
AND WEAK UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE MTN ZONES...SO WILL SIDE CLOSER TO
THE GFS AND MAINTAIN LOW POPS FOR THE ERN MTS AND SURROUNDING TRRN
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP WILL COME MON AFTERNOON THROUGH
MON NIGHT AS A SECOND...STRONGER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM THE NW.
THE GFS PROGS H7 TEMPS AS LOW AS MINUS 12 DEGREES C BY TUE MORNING IN
THE WAKE OF THIS STRONGER COLD FRONT. NOT TERRIBLY COLD BY NORMAL
FEB STANDARDS...BUT COMING ON THE HEELS OF WHAT LIKELY WILL BE THE
WARMEST OR ONE OF THE WARMEST FEBRUARYS ON RECORD...IT WILL BE A
TASTE OF TRUE WINTER CONDITIONS. THE GFS LOOKS A BIT MORE FAVORABLE
FOR QPF THAN THE ECMWF...BUT IN ETHER CASE THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD 24
HOUR PERIOD OF UPSLOPE FOR OUR AREA. WITH THE FAVORABLE GFS...COULD
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE FOR THE ERN MTS AND
PLAINS BY TUE MORNING. HIGHEST POPS LOOK TO BE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE
MORNING. HIGH TEMPS TUE OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 40S.
UPPER RIDGE THEN REBUILDS FROM WED THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK...RETURNING US TO DRY WX WITH TEMPS NR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE. A COUPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES TO OUR NORTH WILL KEEP THE CHANCE
OF A FEW SHSN FOR THE DVD GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MST FRI FEB 19 2016
OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS WEST OF KCOS AND KPUB AT TIMES...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF
SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
401 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE INTO EARLY TUESDAY. A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY
AFFECT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER
RETURNS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN SOME SPOTTY VERY LIGHT PCPN
TONIGHT. AT MOST...ONE OR TWO HUNDREDS OF AN INCH. BASED ON
LATEST RAP AND HRRR AS WELL AS HRRRX...CONTINUE CONFINED POPS TO
NORTHERN ZONES - EVEN THIS MAY BE OVERDONE AS DO NOT EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS TO MEASURE. OVER ORANGE AND WESTERN PASSAIC
COUNTIES...TEMPS WOULD BE CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING -
THUS HAVE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IN AFFECT FOR THAT REGION.
ELSEWHERE TEMPS WILL HOVER JUST ABOVE FREEZING OR BE RISING WITH
SOUTH ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN...LOOKS LIKE ANY PCPN IS LIQUID AND HAVE
WORDED IT AS JUST SPRINKLES.
BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN IS AROUND MIDNIGHT.
TEMPS ARE STEADY OR RISING SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY ON SATURDAY WITH A SW FLOW THAT WILL
HELP PUSH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. HAVE USED CONSENSUS MOS FOR
NOW...BUT IF GFS MOS IS CORRECT...WE COULD APPROACH 60 IN THE
NJ/NYC METRO.
WEAK...AND DRY...COLD FROPA SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY ON SUNDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. AGAIN USED CONSENSUS MOS...BUT GFS MOS IS
WARMER AGAIN - NOT SURE OF THE REASON FOR THIS.
NEXT CONCERN IS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. GEFS PLUMES INDICATE THAT
THE OPERATIONAL 12Z IS AN OUTLIER. ALSO...THE PARALLEL GFS HAS
PCPN UP TO LONG ISLAND. WITH ECMWF...SREF...GEFS AND NAM ALL
SUPPORTING PCPN...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY. LOOKS LIKE THE
BULK OF THE PCPN COMES WITH WARM ADVECTION IN THE EVENING. THUS
WITH TEMPS NOT SUPPORTING SNOW ACCUMULATION...AMOUNTS ARE LOW.
IT`S NOT UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR AFTER THAT TEMPS START TO SUPPORT
ACCUMULATION.
TEMPS REMAIN TOO WARM IN THE NY METRO FOR ACCUMULATION.
PCPN EXITS BY SUNRISE ON MONDAY AND EXPECTING A SEASONABLE DAY ON
MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH...PROVIDING COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS EARLY ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF AND BEGINS TO TRACK ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD ON TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE REGION...WITH THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LIKELY MOVING INTO OUR REGION BY TUESDAY
EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS
THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO NOVA SCOTIA.
AT THIS TIME THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS STILL HAVE SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING...WITH THE GFS STILL THE FASTER COMPARED TO
THE ECMWF. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES WILL BE TO WARM ON TUESDAY TO SUPPORT SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT ACROSS FAR INLAND LOCATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT
AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. AS TEMPERATURES WARM
UP ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S THE ENTIRE REGION SHOULD BE
TRANSITION BACK TO PLAIN RAIN.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO PULL AWAY ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THE SYSTEM
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DOSE OF COLD AIR TO THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRES PASSES NORTH OF THE AIRSPACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT BUT THERE IS STILL A LOW CHANCE OF
BRIEF MIXED PCPN AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING...MAINLY FOR KSWF. AFTER
06Z...HI RES MODELS SHOW SOME SHRA PASSING QUICKLY THROUGH TERMINALS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO KEPT PROB30 IN TAFS FOR NOW.
SATURDAY WILL BE VFR AND DRY.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY S 10-15 KT THIS EVENING AND MAY GUST AT TIMES
ALONG THE COAST. LATEST GUIDANCE AND TRENDS SHOW WINDS MAY BE
GUSTIER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED SO WILL INTRODUCE SOME HIGHER
GUSTS OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. BY MIDDAY SATURDAY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SW 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 25KT ALONG COAST.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON WIND
GUSTS...AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON WIND
GUSTS...AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON WIND
GUSTS...AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON WIND
GUSTS...AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON WIND
GUSTS...AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON WIND
GUSTS...AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SAT AFTN-SUN...VFR.
.SUN NIGHT-MON...CHANCE OF MVFR IN RAIN AND OR SNOW. BECOMING VFR
LATE MON WITH ANY PRECIPITATION ENDING.
.TUE...VFR EARLY...BECOMING MVFR.
.TUE NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE.
.WED...IFR POSSIBLE EARLY...BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS PICK UP TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
THROUGH SE CANADA. SCA ON ALL WATERS TONIGHT...THEN CONTINUE ON
THE THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT ON SUNDAY WITH WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. AS IT DEPARTS...WINDS COULD BRIEFLY
APPROACH SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN. OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACK ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SEAS WILL
BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CRITERIA ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT ON FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN (HYDROLOGICALLY) THROUGH SUNDAY. AROUND A
QUARTER INCH LIQUID/LIQUID EQUIVALENT SUNDAY NIGHT.
A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH POSSIBLY THURSDAY COULD BRING UP TO AN INCH OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...FIG/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...FIG/TONGUE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1257 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. A WARM FRONT
THEN APPROACHES TONIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAK
COLD FRONT FOLLOWS SATURDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
ON SUNDAY AND WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST TEMPS...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS
ON TRACK. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
NOW EAST OF THE REGION.
LIGHT PCPN OVER EASTERN PA...FALLING FROM A MID DECK AROUND 700
HPC IS GENERATING A FEW IP`S AS IT APPROACHES NJ. HRRR
WEAKENS/DISSIPATES THIS ACTIVITY WHICH MAKES SENSE AS IT MOVES
INTO THE DRY AIR. STILL COULD HAVE A PELLET OR TWO IN THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN.
TEMPS MAX OUT AROUND 40.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN SOME SPOTTY PCPN TONIGHT. AT
MOST...A COUPLE OF HUNDREDS OF AN INCH. BASED ON LATEST RAP AND
HRRR AS WELL AS HRRRX...HAVE CONFINED POPS TO NORTHERN ZONES.
COASTAL/SOUTH...LOOKS LIKE ANY PCPN IS LIQUID IN THE FORM OF
SPRINKLES. BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN IS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THINKING PCPN WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW OR IP INLAND AND
SPRINKLES FOR THE COAST (TRACE). SFC TEMPS HOLD FAIRLY STEADY
OVERNIGHT WITH WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF
ANY ACCUMULATION (LESS THAN A HALF INCH) WHERE TEMPS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE UPPER 20S.
SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A SW
FLOW THAT WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. WENT CLOSER TO WARMER
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...WHICH WOULD HAVE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE IN THE
CWA REACHING AT LEAST 50. A WEAK COLD FRONT OR TROUGH THEN PASSES
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LACKING...SO EXPECT A DRY
PASSAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NEARLY ZONAL AND QUITE PROGRESSIVE TO
BEGIN SUNDAY. AN H5 VORT MAX SWINGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES AND
CARVES OUT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
ENERGY DEVELOPS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC...AND THEN TRACKS QUICKLY OFF THE COAST TO SOMEWHERE NEAR
THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN...THERE IS NOT
MUCH TIME FOR THIS WAVE TO AMPLIFY/STRENGTHEN INTO A DEEPER LOW.
OVERALL...00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
AS THE ECMWF/GGEM/NAM ARE ALL PRETTY SIMILAR IN TRACK. THERE ARE
SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES...WITH THE NAM AND GGEM A BIT DEEPER. THE
GGEM IS THE FURTHEST NORTH...TRACKING THE LOW INSIDE THE BENCHMARK.
IT APPEARS THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z GEFS ARE OUTLIERS COMPARED TO THE
REST OF THE GUIDANCE AS THE H5 ENERGY IS MORE ELONGATED AND THE
ATTENDANT SURFACE WAVE IS MUCH WEAKER. THE 03Z SREF MEAN IS
SIMILAR TO THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THIS PIECE OF ENERGY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE
PACIFIC NW COAST. SAMPLING SHOULD IMPROVE INTO SATURDAY AS THE
ENERGY MOVES OVER THE RAOB NETWORK.
SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. THERMAL PROFILES SHOULD BEGIN TO COOL
SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER NE FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND THE LOW. THE LOW TRACK WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE
PTYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE CURRENT CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
BRINGS A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE...POTENTIALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FOR NOW. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY
INLAND...IF ENOUGH COLD AIR CAN MAKE IT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT.
THE JET STREAM PATTERN BECOMES MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND FORECAST UNCERTAINTY GREATLY INCREASES. DEEP UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
AN ENERGETIC LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. AS THIS ENERGY DIGS SOUTH AND ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
AND THEN TRACKS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THERE HAS BEEN VERY
LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE
LOW. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE A STORM SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY INTO POSSIBLY THURSDAY...BUT DETAILS ARE
QUITE UNCERTAIN MAINLY DUE TO THE EXACT TRACK AND FROM PHASING OF
ENERGY WITHIN THE TROUGH.
THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE LOW TRACKING RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A HIGH TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS RIGHT NOW SHOWS
THIS SOURCE OF COLD AIR MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
CURRENT THINKING IS FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW AT THE FRONT END LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...CHANGING TO PLAIN RAIN
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS NEAR OR OVER THE REGION. FOLLOWED
SUPERBLEND POPS CLOSELY...WHICH CONTINUES LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO PULL AWAY TO THE NE ON THURSDAY. IT IS
PRUDENT TO NOTE THAT THERE IS LARGE SPREAD WITHIN THE ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLE SUITES...SO THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST FOR THIS EVENT AS PREDICTABILITY INCREASES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRES PASSES NORTH OF THE AIRSPACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT BUT THERE IS STILL A LOW CHANCE OF
BRIEF MIXED PCPN AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING...MAINLY FOR KSWF. AFTER
06Z...HI RES MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL PATCHES OF MIXED PRECIP
PASSING QUICKLY THROUGH TERMINALS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO KEPT
PROB30 IN TAFS FOR NOW.
SATURDAY WILL BE VFR AND DRY.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY S 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY GUST BRIEFLY
AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST. WINDS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO SW 10-15KT
WITH A GUSTS TO 20KT ALONG COAST BY MIDDAY.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SAT AFTN-SUN...VFR.
.SUN NIGHT-MON...CHANCE OF MVFR IN RAIN AND OR SNOW. BECOMING VFR
LATE MON WITH ANY PRECIPITATION ENDING.
.TUE...VFR EARLY...BECOMING MVFR.
.TUE NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE.
.WED...IFR POSSIBLE EARLY...BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TODAY SHIFTING WINDS TO
SOUTHEAST WITH SUB-SCA CONDS ON ALL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
AND SEAS THEN PICK UP TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
THROUGH SE CANADA. WILL THEREFORE GO WITH SCA ON THE OCEAN
STARTING 00Z AND CARRY IT THROUGH SAT AFTN FOR NOW...BUT THIS WILL
PROBABLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED DUE TO LINGERING HIGH SEAS SAT NIGHT.
GUSTS COULD COME PRETTY CLOSE TO 25KT ON THE EASTERN SOUND...BUT
THIS WOULD NOT APPEAR TO BE LIKELY/WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
SCA.
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT ON SUNDAY WITH WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. AS IT DEPARTS...WINDS COULD BRIEFLY
APPROACH SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN. OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY WILL BEGIN TO PUSH WINDS
AND SEAS TOWARDS SCA LEVELS...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A
COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
POSSIBLY THURSDAY COULD BRING AN INCH OR MORE OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT
PRECIPITATION.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DS
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC/TONGUE
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...JC/DS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
245 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM LATER TODAY AND
SATURDAY.
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY AND STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME
COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY
THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1111 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
1530Z UPDATE...MANY UPDATES THIS MORNING WHICH WILL BE SUMMARIZED AS
SUCCINCTLY AS POSSIBLE. FIRST OFF...NEARLY ALL THE THE SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN SEVERELY UNDERDOING THE ABUNDANT WARMTH
PRODUCED BY THIS SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE NAM/MOS HIGH OF 54
HAS LONG SINCE BEEN EXCEEDED AS WELL AS THE 61 THE MAV PREDICTED.
OPTED TO GO WITH THE 850MB TEMPERATURES ROUTE...BASED ON THE MUCH
WARMER ILX SOUNDING FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING WHICH INDICATES THAT
EITHER A HIGH OF 66 UNDER CLOUDY SKIES IS POSSIBLE OR A MUCH
HIGHER 73 FOR CLEAR SKIES. WENT UP THE MIDDLE CONSIDERING THE
AREA WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY OVERCAST AND DEFINITELY TOOK INTO
CONSIDERATION THE STRENGTH OF THIS VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WHICH
HAS ALREADY PROPELLED TEMPERATURES DRAMATICALLY BEFORE EVEN 11AM
THIS MORNING. (OF NOTE...THE RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY AT KIND IS 69
SET BACK IN 1930...AND ALSO FOR SATURDAY THE RECORD HIGH IS 67
SET BACK IN 1983.)
ADDITIONALLY STRONGER WINDS ARE MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE BOTH IN
THE FORM OF SUSTAINED AND GUSTS...SO LEFT THE WIND ADVISORY
INTACT...HOWEVER INCREASED TO THE WINDS TO A HIGH- END ADVISORY
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH.
SOME OF THESE STRONGER GUSTS ARE ALREADY BEING REPORTED.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES TO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS WERE MADE
AT THIS TIME. ZFP AND THE UPDATE ADVISORY ALREADY SENT OUT. THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR REGION AS LOW LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WAS MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THIS WAS COMBINED
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET WAS ACROSS OUR REGION AND WINDS OF 60 TO 70 KNOTS WERE OCCURRING
AT 925 MB. WITH MIXING LATER TODAY BUFKIT INDICATES SURFACE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 40 KNOTS SHOULD OCCUR AND WILL GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY ALL AREAS TODAY.
DELAYED THE START TIME SLIGHTLY SINCE THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MIXING PRIOR TO MID
MORNING. AFTER THAT WILL GO WITH WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 45
TO 50 MPH SOME AREAS.
USUALLY WITH STRONG WINDS...WARM ADVECTION AND MIXING...MOS TEMPERATURES ARE TOO
COOL AND WILL GO CLOSER TO RAP AND HRR SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH JUST ABOUT ALL
AREAS REACHING INTO THE 60S...EXCEPT NEAR 60 IN THE NORTHEAST TODAY.
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA LATER TONIGHT AND STALL OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS SATURDAY.
WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE...WILL GO A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS NUMBERS.
WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MOST AREAS WITH UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST
FOR SATURDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STALLED FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT. BOTH EUROPEAN AND GEMNH MODELS ARE MUCH WETTER THAN
GFS AND NAM AND TRENDED WETTER MOST AREAS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS CENTRAL AND SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST EARLY SUNDAY. WENT WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ELSEWHERE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND ACROSS FAR EAST SUNDAY EVENING.
MODELS INDICATE TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME COOLER ALL AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTER
THIS SURFACE LOW MOVES BY AND IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 245 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
TRENDS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MORE TOWARD LARGE SCALE
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ONE OR MORE DISTURBANCES
NECESSITATING AT LEAST VERY LOW POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME NO SIGNIFICANT EVENTS APPEAR IN THE OFFING HOWEVER.
WILL NEED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AS A
COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES IN THE LARGER SCALE FLOW SWING THROUGH
THE REGION. LOW LEVEL THERMALS WILL BE BORDERLINE EACH PERIOD...AND
CANNOT RULE OUT A FLAKE OR TWO...AND ANY PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT WOULD
LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE COOLER THAN THE WARM WEEKEND
READINGS BUT WITHIN SIGHT OF NORMALS MUCH OF THE TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 19/18Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1217 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
VFR LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO AVIATION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
WIND GUSTS IN THE REALM OF 35-45 KT WILL BE COMMONPLACE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS RELAXING GRADUALLY IN THE EVENING
BEFORE SUBSIDING LATE TONIGHT.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BECOME AN ISSUE WHEN GUSTS SUBSIDE...WITH
WINDS JUST ABOVE A SHALLOW INVERSION OF AROUND 35KT...AROUND 800 FT
AGL.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION.
NO SIGNIFICANT OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE
PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...SMF/JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1217 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM LATER TODAY AND
SATURDAY.
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY AND STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME
COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY
THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1111 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
1530Z UPDATE...MANY UPDATES THIS MORNING WHICH WILL BE SUMMARIZED AS
SUCCINCTLY AS POSSIBLE. FIRST OFF...NEARLY ALL THE THE SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN SEVERELY UNDERDOING THE ABUNDANT WARMTH
PRODUCED BY THIS SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE NAM/MOS HIGH OF 54
HAS LONG SINCE BEEN EXCEEDED AS WELL AS THE 61 THE MAV PREDICTED.
OPTED TO GO WITH THE 850MB TEMPERATURES ROUTE...BASED ON THE MUCH
WARMER ILX SOUNDING FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING WHICH INDICATES THAT
EITHER A HIGH OF 66 UNDER CLOUDY SKIES IS POSSIBLE OR A MUCH
HIGHER 73 FOR CLEAR SKIES. WENT UP THE MIDDLE CONSIDERING THE
AREA WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY OVERCAST AND DEFINITELY TOOK INTO
CONSIDERATION THE STRENGTH OF THIS VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WHICH
HAS ALREADY PROPELLED TEMPERATURES DRAMATICALLY BEFORE EVEN 11AM
THIS MORNING. (OF NOTE...THE RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY AT KIND IS 69
SET BACK IN 1930...AND ALSO FOR SATURDAY THE RECORD HIGH IS 67
SET BACK IN 1983.)
ADDITIONALLY STRONGER WINDS ARE MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE BOTH IN
THE FORM OF SUSTAINED AND GUSTS...SO LEFT THE WIND ADVISORY
INTACT...HOWEVER INCREASED TO THE WINDS TO A HIGH- END ADVISORY
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH.
SOME OF THESE STRONGER GUSTS ARE ALREADY BEING REPORTED.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES TO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS WERE MADE
AT THIS TIME. ZFP AND THE UPDATE ADVISORY ALREADY SENT OUT. THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR REGION AS LOW LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WAS MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THIS WAS COMBINED
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET WAS ACROSS OUR REGION AND WINDS OF 60 TO 70 KNOTS WERE OCCURRING
AT 925 MB. WITH MIXING LATER TODAY BUFKIT INDICATES SURFACE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 40 KNOTS SHOULD OCCUR AND WILL GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY ALL AREAS TODAY.
DELAYED THE START TIME SLIGHTLY SINCE THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MIXING PRIOR TO MID
MORNING. AFTER THAT WILL GO WITH WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 45
TO 50 MPH SOME AREAS.
USUALLY WITH STRONG WINDS...WARM ADVECTION AND MIXING...MOS TEMPERATURES ARE TOO
COOL AND WILL GO CLOSER TO RAP AND HRR SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH JUST ABOUT ALL
AREAS REACHING INTO THE 60S...EXCEPT NEAR 60 IN THE NORTHEAST TODAY.
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA LATER TONIGHT AND STALL OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS SATURDAY.
WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE...WILL GO A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS NUMBERS.
WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MOST AREAS WITH UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST
FOR SATURDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STALLED FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT. BOTH EUROPEAN AND GEMNH MODELS ARE MUCH WETTER THAN
GFS AND NAM AND TRENDED WETTER MOST AREAS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS CENTRAL AND SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST EARLY SUNDAY. WENT WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ELSEWHERE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND ACROSS FAR EAST SUNDAY EVENING.
MODELS INDICATE TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME COOLER ALL AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTER
THIS SURFACE LOW MOVES BY AND IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TO START OFF THE LONG TERM.
A FLAT MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL GIVE WAY TO A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MAKING ITS WAY TO THE EAST
COAST. THIS TROUGH BRINGS A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GULF STATES AND
THEN UP THE EAST COAST...WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY KEEP CENTRAL
INDIANA DRY WITH FORCING AND MOISTURE FOCUSED FIRST SOUTH AND THEN
EAST OF THE AREA. INITIALIZATION POPS SPLASHED SLIGHT CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED BUT ELIMINATED ALL BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE FORCING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL SYSTEM GETS THE CLOSEST TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS
IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE RELATIVELY NEUTRAL FLOW PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 19/18Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1217 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
VFR LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO AVIATION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
WIND GUSTS IN THE REALM OF 35-45 KT WILL BE COMMONPLACE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS RELAXING GRADUALLY IN THE EVENING
BEFORE SUBSIDING LATE TONIGHT.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BECOME AN ISSUE WHEN GUSTS SUBSIDE...WITH
WINDS JUST ABOVE A SHALLOW INVERSION OF AROUND 35KT...AROUND 800 FT
AGL.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION.
NO SIGNIFICANT OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE
PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...SMF/JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...NIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1128 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM LATER TODAY AND
SATURDAY.
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY AND STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME
COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY
THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1111 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
1530Z UPDATE...MANY UPDATES THIS MORNING WHICH WILL BE SUMMARIZED AS
SUCCINCTLY AS POSSIBLE. FIRST OFF...NEARLY ALL THE THE SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN SEVERELY UNDERDOING THE ABUNDANT WARMTH
PRODUCED BY THIS SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE NAM/MOS HIGH OF 54
HAS LONG SINCE BEEN EXCEEDED AS WELL AS THE 61 THE MAV PREDICTED.
OPTED TO GO WITH THE 850MB TEMPERATURES ROUTE...BASED ON THE MUCH
WARMER ILX SOUNDING FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING WHICH INDICATES THAT
EITHER A HIGH OF 66 UNDER CLOUDY SKIES IS POSSIBLE OR A MUCH
HIGHER 73 FOR CLEAR SKIES. WENT UP THE MIDDLE CONSIDERING THE
AREA WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY OVERCAST AND DEFINITELY TOOK INTO
CONSIDERATION THE STRENGTH OF THIS VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WHICH
HAS ALREADY PROPELLED TEMPERATURES DRAMATICALLY BEFORE EVEN 11AM
THIS MORNING. (OF NOTE...THE RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY AT KIND IS 69
SET BACK IN 1930...AND ALSO FOR SATURDAY THE RECORD HIGH IS 67
SET BACK IN 1983.)
ADDITIONALLY STRONGER WINDS ARE MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE BOTH IN
THE FORM OF SUSTAINED AND GUSTS...SO LEFT THE WIND ADVISORY
INTACT...HOWEVER INCREASED TO THE WINDS TO A HIGH- END ADVISORY
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH.
SOME OF THESE STRONGER GUSTS ARE ALREADY BEING REPORTED.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES TO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS WERE MADE
AT THIS TIME. ZFP AND THE UPDATE ADVISORY ALREADY SENT OUT. THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR REGION AS LOW LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WAS MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THIS WAS COMBINED
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET WAS ACROSS OUR REGION AND WINDS OF 60 TO 70 KNOTS WERE OCCURRING
AT 925 MB. WITH MIXING LATER TODAY BUFKIT INDICATES SURFACE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 40 KNOTS SHOULD OCCUR AND WILL GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY ALL AREAS TODAY.
DELAYED THE START TIME SLIGHTLY SINCE THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MIXING PRIOR TO MID
MORNING. AFTER THAT WILL GO WITH WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 45
TO 50 MPH SOME AREAS.
USUALLY WITH STRONG WINDS...WARM ADVECTION AND MIXING...MOS TEMPERATURES ARE TOO
COOL AND WILL GO CLOSER TO RAP AND HRR SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH JUST ABOUT ALL
AREAS REACHING INTO THE 60S...EXCEPT NEAR 60 IN THE NORTHEAST TODAY.
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA LATER TONIGHT AND STALL OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS SATURDAY.
WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE...WILL GO A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS NUMBERS.
WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MOST AREAS WITH UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST
FOR SATURDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STALLED FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT. BOTH EUROPEAN AND GEMNH MODELS ARE MUCH WETTER THAN
GFS AND NAM AND TRENDED WETTER MOST AREAS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS CENTRAL AND SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST EARLY SUNDAY. WENT WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ELSEWHERE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND ACROSS FAR EAST SUNDAY EVENING.
MODELS INDICATE TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME COOLER ALL AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTER
THIS SURFACE LOW MOVES BY AND IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TO START OFF THE LONG TERM.
A FLAT MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL GIVE WAY TO A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MAKING ITS WAY TO THE EAST
COAST. THIS TROUGH BRINGS A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GULF STATES AND
THEN UP THE EAST COAST...WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY KEEP CENTRAL
INDIANA DRY WITH FORCING AND MOISTURE FOCUSED FIRST SOUTH AND THEN
EAST OF THE AREA. INITIALIZATION POPS SPLASHED SLIGHT CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED BUT ELIMINATED ALL BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE FORCING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL SYSTEM GETS THE CLOSEST TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS
IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE RELATIVELY NEUTRAL FLOW PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 19/15Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 932 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 601 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM UNTIL AROUND
15Z...WHEN GUSTS WILL PICK UP TO 35-45 KTS AND SHIFT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. WIND GUSTS WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH THE DAY BUT
DECREASE SOME AR0OUND SUNSET AND GUSTS SHOULD CEASE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. SOUNDINGS...TIME HEIGHTS...SREF PROBABILITIES AND
MOS GUIDANCE SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND SEE SOME CURRENTLY ACROSS ARKANSAS
WORKING THEIR WAY NORTHEAST. THINK THE LOW LEVEL JET COULD ADVECT
SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND PRODUCE ISENTROPIC LIFT THAT COULD
DROP CEILINGS FOR A TIME SO WILL INCLUDE THESE FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...SMF/JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...CP/NIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
244 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
...Updated Short term, Long term, and Fire weather discussions...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
A trough of low pressure will develop along the lee of the
Rockies overnight as an area of high pressure at the surface
slides east southeast into Oklahoma and eastern Kansas. On the
west side of this surface high a southerly wind will increase to
around 10 knots. Based on these wind speeds overnight along with
clear skies will continue to favor overnight lows generally in the
upper 30s to lower 40. On Saturday a cold front will cross
southwest Kansas as an upper level trough, which was located off
the coast of the Pacific Northwest at 12z Friday, crosses the
northern Plains. The NAM and GFS indicate only a +1 to +2C
difference in both the 900mb and 850mb level between 00z Saturday
and 00z Sunday. Based on this temperature trend the highs on
Saturday will range from the mid 60s in north central and west
central Kansas to the lower 70s in south central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday NIGHT THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
On Saturday night this cold front will then move into the Texas
Panhandle and northern Texas where it will become nearly
stationary from Sunday into early next week. North of this front
some cooler air will begin to filter into western and north
central Kansas as an area of high pressure a the surface crosses
the northern plains. Based on the cooling trend in the 900mb to
850mb level between 00z Sunday and 00z Monday along with the 850mb
temperatures at 00z Monday it appears highs on Sunday will vary
from the mid 50s to around 60. On Monday the highs are expected to
range from 50 to 55 as the surface ridge axis slowly slides east
into northern Oklahoma and eastern Kansas.
Moisture and 850mb warm air advection will begin to develop
across southwest Kansas Monday night as another upper level
disturbance crosses the northern Rockies and begins to approach
western Kansas. Clouds will initially return to western Kansas
Monday evening but the chance of precipitation will increase
towards 12z Tuesday as moisture and lift improves ahead of the
approaching upper level wave. The chance for precipitation will
continue across western Kansas until this upper level wave passes
early Tuesday night. Also give the 900mb to 850mb temperatures at
00z Wednesday along with expected cloud cover and the chances for
precipitation on Tuesday the highs may struggle into the lower
50s. Highs should be mainly in the upper 40s.
Temperatures will begin to warm mid week as a northwest flow
improves across the central Rockies, however another cold front
will take aim at western Kansas by late week. Given the
differences between the models late week confidence is not high on
how warm the warm up will be Wednesday and Thursday so will stay
close to the CRExtendedFcst_Init for highs in the later periods.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Saturday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
Winds at less than 10 knots this afternoon will become southeast
at around 10 mph early tonight as an area of high pressure at the
surface moves from western Kansas into north central Oklahoma and
south central Kansas by evening. These southerly winds at around
10 knots will continue overnight as a trough of low pressure
begins to develop along the lee of the Rockies. RAP and HRRR
indicating VRF conditions over the next 24 hours.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
Gusty northwest winds will develop behind a cold front as it
crosses western Kansas from late Saturday morning through the mid
afternoon. Although the wind speeds will be increasing into the 15
to 20 mph range during the afternoon, the relative humidity values
will range from 18 to 25 percent. This will once again result an
elevated fire weather day but red flag warning conditions are not
anticipated. Outdoor burning is discouraged.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 40 70 35 59 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 37 69 34 58 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 41 69 34 58 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 39 71 34 60 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 37 67 35 55 / 0 0 0 0
P28 43 73 39 62 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert
FIRE WEATHER...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
141 PM MST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST FRI FEB 19 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WITH
ITS AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA. REGION OF MID-UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR IS IN PLACE WITHIN EXPECTED REGION OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. EAST OF THIS A PLUME
OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST 2/3 OF OUR
CWA. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS
OUR CWA AND IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR NORTON TO SHARON
SPRINGS.
EARLY THIS MORNING...TREND HAS BE TOWARD DECREASING WINDS AS PEAK
PRESSURE RISES HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD ALONG WITH FRONT AND STRONGEST
LLJ. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS STRONG LLJ IN PLACE MAINLY IN
THE EAST...HOWEVER BL WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY IN POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS WITH FRONTAL INVERSION IN PLACE LIMITING MIXING.
RAP/HRRR/NAM DO SHOW A SMALL REGION OF HIGHER BL WINDS LINGERING
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA (NEAR 50KT) IN
REGION OF BROAD SUBSIDENCE...BUT THIS DOESNT MATCH UPSTREAM OBS
(NOT MIXING TO SURFACE). CONSIDERING AREA OBS ARE WELL BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA AND WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A TREND AWAY FROM
POTENTIAL WARNING CRITERIA WINDS AS LLJ CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND EAST I DECIDED TO CANCEL WARNING EARLY. WE MAY STILL SEE
ISOLATED GUSTS 50-55 MPH...BUT THIS CAN BE HANDLED WITH OTHER
PRODUCTS.
TODAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THESE
PERIODS WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASSING NORTH OF OUR CWA WITH
THE STRONGEST SATURDAY NIGHT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO DOWNSLOPE PATTERN TO THE WEST AND LEE
TROUGH REDEVELOPMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN
VERY DRY...AND DESPITE A FEW WEAK QPF SIGNALS BY GEM/ECMWF SAT NIGHT
THE REST OF GUIDANCE AVAILABLE SHOWS DRY CONDITIONS. THERE COULD BE A
FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES SAT NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONSIDERING
DEPTH OF DRY LAYER ON SOUNDINGS (INCLUDING ECMWF). A COLD FRONT AND
GENERAL HEIGHT FALLS BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM MST FRI FEB 19 2016
FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...ONLY CONCERNS WITH REGARDS TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME SATURDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. OVERALL...IT APPEARS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK WITH THE ONLY
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION AS TUESDAY.
BEGINNING WITH SATURDAY NIGHT...A SEMI-POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. 700-500 MB THETA-E
LAPSE RATES INDICATE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE ALOFT INCREASES...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. BELIEVE THERE IS
A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BUT DON`T EXPECT THEM TO AMOUNT TO
MUCH. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES AND WET BULB TEMPERATURES SUGGEST
THAT MOST, IF NOT ALL, PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF
RAIN. THERE MAY ALSO BE A BRIEF BOUT OF WINDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE SHOWERS GIVEN DRIER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. A FEW GUSTS OF 35
TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THIS EVENT APPEARS SIMILAR TO THE
VALENTINE`S DAY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MORE WIDESPREAD AND WE OBSERVE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO.
THE OTHER PRECIPITATION CHANCE ARRIVES ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
BELIEVE THIS SYSTEM MAY POSE A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WITH AMOUNTS GREATER THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS (IN
CONTRAST TO SATURDAY NIGHT`S SYSTEM). A MORE POTENT UPPER LEVEL
LONGWAVE TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS
HAPPENS...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...FAVORABLE LIFT AND FORCING ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ON A MORE WIDESPREAD BASIS. BASED ON THE
CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST...PRECIPITATION SHOULD INITIALLY BEGIN
AS RAIN BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW TUESDAY MORNING. AS TEMPERATURES
WARM TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...A CHANGE BACK TO RAIN
APPEARS PROBABLE. HOWEVER...ONE CONCERN IS THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY DIVE
TOO FAR SOUTH TOO QUICKLY. THIS WOULD ESSENTIALLY CAUSE THE TRI-
STATE REGION TO MISS OUT ON THIS PRECIPITATION CHANCE. THIS WOULD
LEAVE US CLOUDY...COOL AND DRY. IF THIS SYSTEM PUSHES ANY FURTHER
SOUTH...OBSERVATIONS OF DENSE CLOUD COVER MAY EVEN BE TOUGH TO COME
BY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-70.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 930 AM MST FRI FEB 19 2016
FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KGLD...NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 11KTS WILL STEADILY BACK TO THE
SOUTH AT 10KTS THROUGH 23Z THEN VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
NORTHWEST THROUGH 09Z. AROUND 16Z NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND
20KTS EXPECTED. ONLY HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.
KMCK...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-25KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED
TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH REDUCED SPEEDS AROUND 23Z..FURTHER
BACKING TO THE SOUTH NEAR 7KTS BY 03Z. AFTER 07Z WINDS THEN VEER
TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN NORTHWEST THROUGH 16Z. AFTER 17Z NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING NEAR 20KTS EXPECTED. PRIMARY CLOUDS WILL BE CIRRUS
LEVEL.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1115 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 316 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
An amplified upper trough was lifting east-northeast across NE
during the early morning hours. A strong LLJ of 60 KTS ahead of
the the 850mb trough was shifting east into western MO. A cold
front was moving east into north central KS. Westerly winds have
increased to 30 to 35 MPH with gusts of 45 MPH behind the front
and will remain above wind advisory criteria across north central
KS through 12Z.
There will be weak CAA through the day but westerly surface winds
will keep temperature mild with most areas reaching the upper 60s to
lower 70s. West-northwest winds will gradually diminish through the
afternoon hours as the stronger 850mb winds shift eastward into the
mid MS river valley by 00Z SAT.
Tonight, light westerly winds will back to the southwest and south
through the night. Overnight lows will drop into the upper 30s
across north central KS with lower to mid 40s across east central
KS.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 316 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
Westerly flow aloft carries a series of weak embedded disturbances
while a cold front shifts winds to the north during the day
Saturday. Moisture pooling ahead of the boundary with some
steepening of mid level lapse rates could develop a few
thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon into early evening. In
addition, shear profiles are decent at 45 to 50 kts. Best thunder
chances are towards Missouri, while across the CWA the current and
previous runs of the NAM are the only model developing precip as
far north as Topeka. I have a low end slight chc mention for TOP
however believe the better chances reside over Anderson, Coffey, and
Franklin counties.
A cooling trend begins on Sunday as a modified airmass drops
highs Sunday back to near 60 degrees. As an upper trough passes east
of the area, cooler temps come in on the backside with readings in
the 50s through the week. Overnight lows are generally near the
freezing mark. Main change to the extended was to add chances for
rain Monday evening as a progressive shortwave trough dives
southeast through the plains. While forcing centers along a sfc cold
front from the northwest, the wave itself is disorganized with both
the GFS and ECMWF developing scattered areas of qpf over the region.
Profilers suggest above freezing temps at 850 mb while sfc temps are
progged a few degrees above freezing, resulting in rain as most
likely precip type.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1111 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
VFR conditions expected for the entire forecast period. Winds
continue to back to the south by morning and decrease in speed.
Gusts at times still in place this afternoon until near sunset.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1111 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
The RAP model mixes out the low-level moisture across the CWA during
the mid morning hours and keeps low dewpoints in the teens through
the afternoon hours. I went a bit higher than the RAP model for
dewpoints but RHs will drop to or below 20 percent across much of
the CWA during the late morning hours. The steep dry adiabatic lapse
rates to 840-820 MB should transport higher winds towards the
surface, with wind speeds of 15-25 MPH and gusts to 30 to 35 MPH
into the early afternoon hours. As the stronger flow aloft shifts
northeast of the area this afternoon, the winds will diminish
through the mid and late afternoon hours. Even though the sustain
winds may diminish to 10 to 20 MPH during the mid afternoon hours
the 25 MPH wind gust may continue due to the deep mixing.
Given wind gusts greater than 25 MPH during the late morning hours
into the mid afternoon hours, RH`s falling into the upper teens
during the late morning and afternoon hours, and dry fuels I will
issue a red flag warning for the entire CWA from 10 AM this morning
through 5 PM this afternoon.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning until 5 PM CST this afternoon for KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Drake
FIRE WEATHER...Gargan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1110 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
...Updated Synopsis and Aviation Discussion...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
At 12z one 500mb trough was located over South Dakota with
another upper level trough located over northern
Montana/southwest Saskatchewan. A third upper level system was
located off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and was associated
with the left exit region of a upper level jet. Over the Central
Plains at 12z Friday a 700 mb baroclinic zone extended from
northeast Colorado to southwest Iowa, A surface cold front along
with an 850mb baroclinic zone stretched from southeast Colorado to
northeast Oklahoma.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
It will not be nowhere near as warm today as compared to yesterday.
Truth be told, it will actually be quite pleasant with temperatures
ranging from the upper 60s along the Interstate 70 corridor to perfect
room temperature lower 70s near the Oklahoma border. Lower dewpoints
are moving in from the west, and there will be decreasing winds today.
As a result, there will be elevated fire weather conditions possible
across the forecast district. See the fire weather section for more
details. Winds are forecast to be downslope NNW through the overnight.
Some of the models are warmer than others (ECE vs. MET). Wondering if
the NAM is too cold for lows tonight. Since the wind is progged to stay
up a bit, took the warmer solution with overnight lows ranging from
39 to 46 degrees Fahrenheit.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
Weak low level warm air advection is forecast along the OK border and
points southeast of the forecast district Saturday morning. I have very
low 5 percent pops across the SE, but none of the models are indicating
anything more than some clouds. Otherwise, the next chance for higher
probabilities of precipitation comes Tuesday as a synoptic wave moves
in the from the NW. A moderate strength 250-hPa jet is forecast with
said feature and there might be enough dynamics to squeeze out some
light precipitation. Confidence is pretty low though and moisture trajectories
could be a lot better. The superblend solution looks fine for now as
a first order approximation. Otherwise, temperatures will be near to
slightly above seasonal values and there doesn`t appear to be a significant
warming episode with the long term temporal forecast domain.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Saturday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
Winds at less than 10 knots this afternoon will become southeast
at around 10 mph early tonight as an area of high pressure at the
surface moves from western Kansas into north central Oklahoma and
south central Kansas by evening. These southerly winds at around
10 knots will continue overnight as a trough of low pressure
begins to develop along the lee of the Rockies. RAP and HRRR
indicating VRF conditions over the next 24 hours.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
As with last night, sought after a lower dewpoint solution as the models
are running a bit high compared to actual observations. Minimum afternoon
relative humidities are progged to be in the 12-18 percent range. The
proverbial fly in the ointment is the winds will actually decrease with
time today. As a result, I do not believe red flag conditions will be
met. Sure, there will be elevated conditions. The bottom line, burning
is discouraged.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 70 40 70 35 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 69 37 69 34 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 73 41 69 34 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 73 39 71 34 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 69 37 67 35 / 0 0 0 0
P28 73 43 74 39 / 0 10 10 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burgert
FIRE WEATHER...Sugden
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
930 AM MST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST FRI FEB 19 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WITH
ITS AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA. REGION OF MID-UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR IS IN PLACE WITHIN EXPECTED REGION OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. EAST OF THIS A PLUME
OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST 2/3 OF OUR
CWA. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS
OUR CWA AND IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR NORTON TO SHARON
SPRINGS.
EARLY THIS MORNING...TREND HAS BE TOWARD DECREASING WINDS AS PEAK
PRESSURE RISES HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD ALONG WITH FRONT AND STRONGEST
LLJ. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS STRONG LLJ IN PLACE MAINLY IN
THE EAST...HOWEVER BL WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY IN POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS WITH FRONTAL INVERSION IN PLACE LIMITING MIXING.
RAP/HRRR/NAM DO SHOW A SMALL REGION OF HIGHER BL WINDS LINGERING
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA (NEAR 50KT) IN
REGION OF BROAD SUBSIDENCE...BUT THIS DOESNT MATCH UPSTREAM OBS
(NOT MIXING TO SURFACE). CONSIDERING AREA OBS ARE WELL BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA AND WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A TREND AWAY FROM
POTENTIAL WARNING CRITERIA WINDS AS LLJ CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND EAST I DECIDED TO CANCEL WARNING EARLY. WE MAY STILL SEE
ISOLATED GUSTS 50-55 MPH...BUT THIS CAN BE HANDLED WITH OTHER
PRODUCTS.
TODAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THESE
PERIODS WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASSING NORTH OF OUR CWA WITH
THE STRONGEST SATURDAY NIGHT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO DOWNSLOPE PATTERN TO THE WEST AND LEE
TROUGH REDEVELOPMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN
VERY DRY...AND DESPITE A FEW WEAK QPF SIGNALS BY GEM/ECMWF SAT NIGHT
THE REST OF GUIDANCE AVAILABLE SHOWS DRY CONDITIONS. THERE COULD BE A
FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES SAT NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONSIDERING
DEPTH OF DRY LAYER ON SOUNDINGS (INCLUDING ECMWF). A COLD FRONT AND
GENERAL HEIGHT FALLS BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 125 AM MST FRI
FEB 19 2016
UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST MONDAY. A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESUME TUESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WILL SHIFT EAST INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE
TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL HAVE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE PROFILE TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
THERE SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN DURING THE DAYTIME WITH RAIN AND SNOW
MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESUME
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD START IN THE LOWER 50S MONDAY AND THEN COOL
TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WARMER MID 50S
ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S MONDAY NIGHT COOLING TO THE LOWER TO
MID 20S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 930 AM MST FRI FEB 19 2016
FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KGLD...NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 11KTS WILL STEADILY BACK TO THE
SOUTH AT 10KTS THROUGH 23Z THEN VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
NORTHWEST THROUGH 09Z. AROUND 16Z NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND
20KTS EXPECTED. ONLY HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.
KMCK...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-25KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED
TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH REDUCED SPEEDS AROUND 23Z..FURTHER
BACKING TO THE SOUTH NEAR 7KTS BY 03Z. AFTER 07Z WINDS THEN VEER
TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN NORTHWEST THROUGH 16Z. AFTER 17Z NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING NEAR 20KTS EXPECTED. PRIMARY CLOUDS WILL BE CIRRUS
LEVEL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST FRI FEB 19 2016
THIS AFTERNOON LOW TDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA
AND THIS SHOULD COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS TO SUPPORT RH VALUES
BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF OUR CWA. WINDS THIS
MORNING SHOULD DECREASE AS GRADIENT RELAXES AND LOW LEVEL JET
TRANSITIONS EAST AND NORTH. AS LEE TROUGH REDEVELOPS SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER AND MODELS
SHOW AN INCREASE IN WINDS MID-LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR FAR WEST.
THE WINDOW FOR GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH APPEARS TO BE NARROW AND AT THE
MOST I COULD SEE A NARROW CORRIDOR IN PARTS OF OUR EASTERN
COLORADO COUNTIES JUST BARLEY REACHING 3HR RFW CRITERIA.
CONSIDERING THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE EVENT AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN
WIND MAGNITUDE/DURATION I AM NOT PLANNING ON RFW ISSUANCE AT THIS
TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MENTION IN HWO OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1256 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 918 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
ANOTHER UPDATE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL CLEARING FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME ACROSS MAINLY NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...AS CLEAR SKIES
WERE PUSHING QUICKLY OUR WAY. HOWEVER...IN TRUE NRN MICHIGAN
FASHION...MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE EXPANDING NNW...AND SHOW THAT
RELENTLESS DESIRE TO NOT CLEAR. CONFIDENCE A LITTLE LOW ON SEEING
DECENT SUN TODAY. WILL OPT TO JUST KEEP THINGS MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH AFTERNOON. MAYBE SOME BETTER PROLONGED CLEARING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE GTV BAY REGION.
TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY RACING HIGHER THAN FORECAST...SO
INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 30S IN EASTERN
UPPER...TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE GTV BAY REGION AND ALONG M-55.
ALSO...EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE POTENTIAL CLEARER SKIES FOR AWHILE WITH SOME
SHALLOW MIXING...COUPLED WITH INCOMING STRONG FORCING WITH WELL
DEFINED SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WITH AND SHORTLY AFTER
FROPA...BETTER BL MIXING BRINGING DOWN 45 MPH GUSTS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING LOOKS GOOD UP TO GAYLORD/CHARLEVOIX/HARRISVILLE...AND
AREAS SOUTH OF THERE.
THE WINDS STAY GUSTY THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT...AND
WILL KEEP THE BL MIXED IN A DECENT ENOUGH FASHION FOR TEMPS TO
REMAIN MILD THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. LOWS ONLY DOWN INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 721 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO CANCEL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. AREA OF
LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET IS RAPIDLY ON THE WAY OUT OF NORTHEAST LOWER
AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. ANTICIPATED DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE HAS NOT OCCURRED...AND BASED OFF UPSTREAM CIG AND DEW
POINT TRENDS...MAY HAVE TROUBLE GENERATING ANY DRIZZLE UNTIL LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON (WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING).
&&
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
WAA/SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NRN PLAINS. 500 MB RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED JUST
EAST OF MICHIGAN...MAKING WAY FOR INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION AS A 500 MB
TROUGH SLIDES JUST EAST OF THE NRN ROCKIES. INITIAL WAA PRECIP WING
IS MAKING ITS WAY NE OUT OF OUR CWA ATTM. HIGHEST POPS HAVE REMAINED
ACROSS OUR NRN CWA...WITH LESS PRECIP TO THE SOUTH DUE TO DRIER LOW
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF M-32. PRECIP TYPE HAS BEEN
MIXED...SWITCHING FROM SNOW TO SLEET TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN BACK TO
SNOW AT TIMES WITHIN HEAVIER BURST OF PRECIP. AT THIS POINT...ONLY
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME DRIZZLE HAVE DEVELOPED IN ITS
WAKE OVER NRN WISCONSIN AND WRN UPR MICHIGAN. ADDITIONAL AREAS OF
RAIN ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE NRN PLAINS IN THE VCNTY OF THE SURFACE
LOW. LOTS OF QUESTIONS FOR THE DAY AHEAD...INCLUDING POPS...PRECIP
TYPE...TEMPS AND WIND SPEEDS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE STACKED LOW AS IT PUSHES OUT OF THE NRN
PLAINS AND THRU NRN MICHIGAN.
THIS HIGHLY DYNAMIC SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE UPSTREAM WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD THRU CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY AND RIGHT
THRU THE STRAITS THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED AS A 500 MB LOW CLOSES OFF DIRECTLY UNDER THE SURFACE LOW.
NAM AND RAP BOTH SUGGEST ONLY LIGHT PRECIP THRU MUCH OF TODAY...WITH
HIGHEST POPS REMAIN ACROSS OUR NRN CWA. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR BOTH AT LOW AND MID LEVELS
THAT WILL LIMIT PRECIP PRODUCTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STILL...CANNOT
IGNORE WHAT IS HAPPENING UPSTREAM...AND WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
DURING THE MORNING INCREASING TO CATEGORICAL THIS AFTERNOON AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVE JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW CENTER. PRECIP TYPE
WILL REMAIN QUESTIONABLE THIS MORNING PER MODEL SOUNDINGS BEFORE LOW
LEVEL WAA BOOSTS SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING BY AROUND MIDDAY OR
SO. WILL MAINTAIN WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE NRN HALF OF OUR CWA
FROM M-32 NORTHWARD THRU ERN UPR MICHIGAN UNTIL NOON. TEMPS SHOULD
HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING BY THIS TIME.
REGARDING WIND POTENTIAL TODAY...IN COORDINATION WITH GRR AND DTX...
WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR OUR SRN TIER OF COUNTIES AS WELL AS
OUR FAR SW COUNTIES FROM LEELANAU TO GRAND TRAVERSE AND BENZIE. LOW
LEVEL WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SE TO THE S/SW BY AFTERNOON AND FURTHER
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING LOW. STABILITY MAY BE A LIMITING
FACTOR REGARDING JUST HOW MUCH OF THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT WE MAY BE
ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY KEEP SOME OF THE HIGHER WINDS AT
BAY. REGARDLESS...WILL ISSUE THE ADVISORY FOR THE ABOVE AREAS WITH
SOME SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH EXPECTED AT TIMES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
(2/20)SATURDAY...AS THE 500 MB SPEED MAX MOVES TO THE EAST OUT OF
LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING, THE FORCING GOES WITH IT, AS DOES
THE 700-500 MB LAYER MOISTURE. SO HAVE THE SNOW IN THE MORNING
DIMINISHING WITH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAIN/SNOW MIX, AS THE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER PART OF THE PROFILES
BEGIN TO WARM WITH THE MAX SFC TEMPERATURES IN E UPPER GETTING TO
THE MID 30S. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING, BRINGING THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN. HOWEVER, THERE
IS SOME DISAGREEMENT TO THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR INITIALLY. THE ECMWF
AND THE NAM BOTH HAVE THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -7C AND -8C
WHILE THE GFS IS GETTING TO AROUND -10C. WITH THE WATER TEMPERATURES
AROUND 3C IN BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN, AM NOT SURE THAT
THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF LAKE EFFECT EVEN IN E UPPER UNTIL
CLOSER TO 12Z. SO MINOR AMOUNTS IF ANY OVERNIGHT IN E UPPER.
(2/21)SUNDAY...DURING THE MORNING THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ON ALL THE
MODELS IS AROUND -13C, BUT NOW WE HAVE A LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE 850-
700 MB LAYER WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH WITH THE LAYER RH<20%. SO
THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL BE THERE WITH THE INSTABILITY, BUT
THE AMOUNTS WILL BE MINOR AS THE MOISTURE ISN`T THERE. THE MOISTURE
DOESN`T GET ANY BETTER INTO THE NIGHT AS THE 850-700 MB LAYER RH
CONTINUES AT LESS THAN 30% AND THE SFC HIGH APPROACHES, MAKING THE
FLOW MORE AND MORE ANTICYCLONIC. SO WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT, ALTHOUGH IT WOULD MORE
LIKE FLURRIES IF WE GET ANYTHING AT ALL.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
THE 3-7 DAY TRENDS LOOK LIKE WE ARE EVOLVING TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN FROM THE MORE ZONAL FLOW DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT
WEEK. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE END OF THE ZONAL FLOW AS A 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND THE
500 MB VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY REINFORCES THE TROUGH BY HAVING A
SPOKE OF ENERGY THAT ROTATES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS JUST BEHIND
IT ON TUESDAY. THIS SETS UP THE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ALMOST THE LAST TWO YEARS, EXCEPT
DURING THE TIME THAT THE EL NINO PATTERN HAD BEEN DOMINATED
(PRIMARILY NOV-EARLY JAN). SO THE MAIN IDEA WILL BE EVOLUTION OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN...WITH
POTENTIAL CLEARING FLIRTING WITH MBL. ALL VFR ANYWAY WITH LOW
LEVELS BEING DRY. THATS GONNA CHANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING/MOST OF TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN (MAYBE A CLAP OF THUNDER?). THIS
FRONT WILL BRING THE MVFR CIGS IN...AS WELL AS HELP MIX A CHUNK OF
VERY STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC. THIS IS STILL LLWS...BUT
FEELING AS IF 30-4O KTS WILL BE COMMON WITH AND BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AND EVEN INTO
SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS PLN/APN.
THE MVFR CIGS APPEAR AS THOUGH THEY WILL DEPART LATE TONIGHT WHILE
A SECONDARY SFC TROUGH ARRIVES SATURDAY MORNING WITH VFR BKN-OVC.
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REACH GALE WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS MOST OF OUR
NEARSHORE AREAS TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS RIGHT THRU THE STRAITS THIS EVENING. MIXED PRECIP THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME ALL LIGHT RAIN BY AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES OF
RAIN CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT AS WARM AIR SURGES NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE LOW CENTER. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCA CRITERIA.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ019>022-
025>036-041-042.
LH...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DICKSON
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...DICKSON
MARINE...MLR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1250 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 538 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
...LULL IN PRECIP ATTM BUT MORE WINTRY PRECIP RETURNS THIS AFTN...
STRONG SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM THIS MORNING OVER DAKOTAS. LIGHTNING
STRIKES WERE OBSERVED EARLIER WITH H7-H5 LAPSE RATES PUSHING 9C/KM
OVER SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE. WAVE AND SFC LOW MOVE IN THIS
AFTN WHICH WILL BRING MORE PRECIP BACK OVER THE AREA. ATTM THOUGH IS
FAIRLY QUIET WITH MINIMAL DRIZZLE IN WAKE OF STRONG BAND OF WINTRY
MIX THAT MOVED THROUGH LATE LAST EVENING. SEEMS THAT HEAVIEST FZRA
FELL OVER THE KEWEENAW WHILE OTHER FZRA OCCURRED OVER WESTERN UPR
MICHIGAN. MAINLY SNOW OCCURRED ELSEWHERE. WHAT HAS BEEN LEFT OVER
IN THE WAKE OF THAT ARC OF HEAVIER PRECIP IS NOT MUCH. DRIZZLE AND
FZDZ HAS BEEN PATCHY/INTERMITTENT WITH DRYING IN BLYR AS SEEN BY
SFC DWPNT DEPRESSIONS 3-5F IN MOST AREAS. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR
NEXT SURGE OF PRECIP...STARTING OFF AS RAIN...MOVING IN BY AFTN AS
THE STRONG SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW ARRIVE ACROSS NORTHERN WI. SFC LOW WILL
BE DOWN TO LOWER THAN 990MB. CANCELLED WINTER WX ADVY FOR ALL BUT
KEWEENAW AND FAR EAST EARLY.
NOT OUT OF THE WOODS WITH REGARD TO THIS SYSTEM YET THOUGH. TRICKY
PART OF THE FORECAST TODAY IS STRONG COOLING ALOFT THAT ACCOMPANIES
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH WHERE ENHANCED LIFT WOULD OCCUR IN THE MID LEVEL FGEN.
NAM/GEM-REGIONAL AND RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPS ALOFT COMING CLOSE
TO 0C...SO SNOW COULD BE PTYPE DURING PERIOD OF HEAVIEST PRECIP LATE
THIS AFTN. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT PORTIONS OF NCNTRL AND
WESTERN CWA WOULD HAVE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SNOW AND AT LEAST MINOR
ACCUMS. TRENDED TOWARD MORE SNOW FOR THESE AREAS BUT DUE TO WARM
TEMPS AT THE SFC IN THE MID 30S AT LEAST...SNOW ACCUMS IN ANY ONE
LOCATION SHOULD BE HELD DOWN TO A SLUSHY INCH OR SO. CAVEOT TO THAT
IS IF THIS SNOW FALLS AT VERY HIGH RATES WHICH IS POSSIBLE WITH
LAPSE RATES ALOFT THAT MOVE ACROSS...A FEW INCHES OF SLUSHY SNOW
COULD ACCUMULATE QUITE QUICKLY. NAM/GEM-REGIONAL MOST EMPHATIC WITH
THIS IDEA...BUT DIFFER ON WHERE STRIPE OF HEAVIER QPF IS PLACED.
SUPPOSE IF EVERYTHING CAME TOGETHER IDEALLY /NAMELY ENOUGH COOLING
ALOFT AND DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG RIBBON OF PRECIP FORCED BY
INSTABILITY ALOFT/ A SHORT DURATION HEADLINE FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF
SLUSHY SNOW COULD BE NEEDED SOMEWHERE FM THE KEWEENAW TO THE NCNTRL
CWA. WILL CERTAINLY BE SOMETHING FOR DAYSHIFT TO KEEP EYE ON AS DAY
WEARS ON.
INTO TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC LOW MOVE EAST OF UPR
MICHIGAN AND SHOULD SEE SUBSIDENCE SPREADING FM WEST TO EAST BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. WITH LOSS OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER DZ/FZDZ SCENARIO FOR A
WHILE THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE OVER KEWEENAW PENINSULA
WITH UPLSOPE WESTERLY WINDS. WHEN ADDITIONAL PRECIP OCCURS LATER
TONIGHT AS NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW WITH COOLING OF AIRMASS IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS
EVENING. SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT IN ANY ONE AREA SHOULD BE UNDER 1
INCH...THOUGH LINGERING FORCING MAY RESULT IN MORE SNOW OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND THE FAR EAST CWA.
GIVEN SUCH A STRONG LOW CROSSING THE AREA THIS AFTN INTO THE
EVENING...S-SE WINDS WILL BE STRONG AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH GUSTS OVER
30 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE EAST HALF. ONCE THE LOW MOVES BY...WEST
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AS WELL...STRONGEST OVER KEWEENAW PENINSULA
AND NEAR LK SUPERIOR. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...GUSTS 35-45 MPH
COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING FOR THE KEWEENAW.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
A LOWER AMPLITUDE ZONALLY ORIENTED FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WILL
CONTINUE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN
THEN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AGAIN NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER
WRN N AMERICA LEADING TO A DEEPENING TROF OVER ERN N AMERICA. THE
MODEST PATTERN AMPLIFICATION HOWEVER WILL ONLY LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BLO
NORMAL 5H HEIGHTS OVER THE UPPER LAKES AND TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR LATE FEB.
BEGINNING SAT...WEAKLY CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND LINGERING LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY MAINTAIN ISOLD/SCT -SHSN/-SHRA OVER MAINLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NW HALF AND FAR E. EVEN IF PCPN OCCURS...PCPN
AMOUNTS WL BE LIGHT. WILL CONTINUE ONLY LOW CHC POPS IN FCST.
AS TROF DEEPENS AROUND HUDSON BAY...A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PASS
SLOWLY S THRU THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. IN ADDITION...A
SHORTWAVE WILL SWING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE COULD
RESULT IN SOME -SN SPREADING INTO THE FCST AREA SUN...BUT IT
PROBABLY WON`T BE UNTIL LATE SUN THAT THE AIR MASS BECOMES COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LES. 850MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -16C SUN
NIGHT...BUT WITH SFC HIGH PRES ALREADY BUILDING INTO THE UPPER LAKES
BY LATE SUN NIGHT/MON AND INVERSION FALLING TO 4KFT...LES WILL BE
LIGHT. DGZ WILL BE FIRMLY SITUATED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER...SO
THERE MAY BE A COUPLE INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW ACCUMULATION SUN NIGHT.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT LES WILL END MON AS HIGH PRES ARRIVES OVER THE
AREA AND THEN DRIFTS E. IN THE AMPLIFYING WRN RIDGE/ERN TROF PATTERN
NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TWO SHORTWAVES DIVE SE INTO THE UPPER LAKES
AREA BUT MODEL CONSISTENCY ON TIMING OF WAVES IS POOR...SO NOT A LOT
OF CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS. HOWEVER...ANY SYNOPTIC -SN SHOULD BE LIGHT
AS FORCING IS GENERALLY WEAK...AND AT THIS POINT...LES DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A BIG DEAL AS 850 CAA NOT STRONG BEHIND SHORTWAVES
(COLDEST MODEL HAS 8H TEMPS LOWERING TO -18C) AND FLOW GENERALLY
ANTICYCLONIC.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BRING MIXED PRECIP AND LOWERING CIGS TO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH EXACTLY WHERE A BAND
OF HEAVY MIXED PRECIP DEVELOPS IS UNCERTAIN. SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT
TONIGHT BEHIND A SECOND SHORTWAVE...BUT WILL SEE LOWERING CONDITIONS
AT KSAW AND KIWD SAT AS COLDER AIR AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES IN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 538 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN EXITING HIGH PRES AND LOW
PRES MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES WILL RESULT IN SSE GALES OF 35-
40KT OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. GALE WARNING
CONTINUES. ALTHOUGH WINDS BRIEFLY AS THE LOW PASSES THIS
AFTN...STRONG W WINDS UP TO 30KT WILL DEVELOP FROM W TO E IN THE
LATE AFTN/EVENING. WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO 35-40KT FOR A TIME
AROUND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH TO MAINLY THE 15-25KT RANGE SAT THRU SUN MORNING.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER TO MOSTLY UNDER 15KT LATE SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING AS HIGH PRES ARRIVES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND ANOTHER LOW
PRES TROF APPROACHES....WINDS WILL INCREASE MON AFTN THRU TUE...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY UNDER 20KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ264-266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1239 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WEST OF THE STATE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA DURING THE DAY TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT
BRING MUCH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. IT WILL BRING SOME
STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH WILL BE
EXPECTED. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE EXPECTED TODAY AS
HIGHS WILL APPROACH 60 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WITH
50S MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THEN THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER WARM WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED WITH NO REAL COLD AIR COMING IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM TODAY. WE WILL GRADUALLY COOL OFF THEN BEGINNING
ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES
OF RAIN AND SNOW ON SUNDAY...WITH SMALL CHANCES NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1202 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
I INCREASED WIND GUSTS TO AS HIGH AS 55 MPH BASED ON MIXING
HEIGHTS FROM THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRY
SLOT IS COMING THROUGH THE AREA NOW AND HELP THE CAUSE OF DEEPER
MIXING...VIA MOMENTUM TRANSFER (USING BUFKIT). THE HRRR SHOWS 70
KNOTS DOWN TO 2000 FT BY MID AFTERNOON. WE MAY GET AN ISOLATED
GUST TO WARNING CRITERIA BUT THIS SHOULD NOT BE A COMMON EVENT. I
WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT AS IS.
I RECENTERED OUR POP GRID TO FOCUS THE SHOWERS DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDING SHOW THETA-E-E DECREASING WITH
HEIGHT TO 10000 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND THERE IS SOME LIMITED
UNSTABLE CAPE. I EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS TO CROSS THE CWA MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE EQL IS BELOW THE
-20C HEIGHT SO I DO NOT BELIEVE THUNDERSTORMS ARE A REAL THREAT
HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THERE WERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN
MINNESOTA DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 55 TO 60 RANGE FROM I-96 SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THAT PART OF OUR FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
OUR MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH THE WIND POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON. WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA WITH A
GOOD POTENTIAL OF 50 MPH OCCURRING FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN THE WINDS...THE REST OF THE FCST IS RATHER
BENIGN WITH ONLY SOME PCPN CHCS AND WARM WEATHER EXPECTED.
THE PCPN THAT MOVED THROUGH LATE LAST EVENING AND VERY EARLY THIS
MORNING HAS QUICKLY MOVED OUT...AND IS EXITING THE STATE TO THE EAST
AS OF 08Z THIS MORNING. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PCPN/RAIN THIS MORNING AS WE WILL BE INBETWEEN PORTIONS OF THE
SYSTEM. AT LEAST THE SRN HALF OF THE CWFA WILL GET INTO THE WARM
SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON JUST BEFORE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH AFTER 18Z.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST
CHC WILL BE UP NORTH CLOSER TO THE LOW AND UPPER WAVE.
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THEY WILL LIKELY PEAK RIGHT AROUND OR IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT AS IT COMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE EURO HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE WARM SECTOR INTO THE AREA...ALLOWING
TEMPS TO APPROACH 60. WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WE WILL GET
INTO THE DRY SLOT AND LIKELY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SUN DOWN
SOUTH. WE SHOULD BE MIXING WELL AT THAT TIME...WITH GOOD POTENTIAL
OF MIXING CLOSE TO 50 KNOTS OF WIND FROM JUST 1-2K FT OFF OF THE
SFC. ALL DATA WE HAVE ANALYZED SHOWS 50 MPH WILL BE LIKELY FOR MOST
OF THE CWFA...WITH 55-60 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE CONFIDENCE
IS NOT THERE FOR THE 55-60 MPH WINDS/WARNING...BUT THE ADVISORY CAN
BE UPGRADED IF NECESSARY.
THE WINDS SHOULD COME DOWN BY MID EVENING AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES EAST
AND WE LOSE THE BETTER DIURNAL MIXING COMPONENT. SOME RESIDUAL
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UP NORTH AS TWO UPPER WAVES MOVE
THROUGH...ONE EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE SECOND OVERNIGHT. THE
SECOND WILL BE FURTHER NORTH AND WILL LIKELY HAVE LESS INFLUENCE ON
THE CWFA.
SAT AND SAT NIGHT LOOK QUIET AS WE WILL HAVE THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH
AND SHORT WAVES WILL STAY NORTH. WE WILL SEE PCPN CHCS INCREASE SOME
ON SUN AS WE SEE YET ANOTHER WAVE DIVE IN...THIS ONE TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS WILL TAKE MOST OF THE PCPN SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE. WE WILL BE
LEFT WITH SMALL CHCS OF PCPN FOR SUN AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN. THERE
WILL BE A CHC OF RAIN AND SNOW EARLY...CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW
CHCS BY SUN AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF
PCPN WILL BE EXPECTED ON SUN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY WITH FAIR AND COLDER WEATHER THEN
MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW MOVES OUT OF THE
GULF. THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES WITH
THIS LOW...AND SOME SOLUTIONS SHOW TWO OR MORE SEPARATE LOWS ALONG
WITH VARIOUS DEGREES OF NORTHERN STREAM PHASING. MOST OF THE
SOLUTIONS ARE CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND
GFS WITH ONE CONSOLIDATED LOW MOVING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH ITS
PRECIP SHIELD REMAINING WELL EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN.
WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY AS
UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH FOLLOWED BY CYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOOK FOR WINDS TO SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AND THEN WESTERLY TONIGHT. MVFR STRATOCU WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND MAINLY AFFECT KMKG. HOWEVER
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT KGRR COULD ALSO DROP TO MVFR FOR A FEW
HOURS. THE OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1202 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
I KEPT THE GALE WARNING THROUGH 5 AM BUT TEMINATED IT AFTER THAT
AS WINDS DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE WILL NEED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVIOSRY ONCE THE GALE IS DONE THROUGH AND THAT SHOULD
LAST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST THU FEB 18 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MUCH WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALL OF THE SNOWPACK WILL MELT IN MOST
LOCATIONS...BUT THERE IS NOT A HUGE AMOUNT OF LIQUID WATER IN THE
SNOWPACK. A NOHRSC MODEL INDICATES 1 TO 2 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT
IS CONTAINED IN THE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE PERE MARQUETTE RIVER BASIN.
SO WE COULD CERTAINLY SEE RISES ON THE PERE MARQUETTE RIVER NEAR
SCOTTVILLE THIS WEEKEND. FORTUNATELY...NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
EVENTS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ICE JAMS ARE THE OTHER POTENTIAL HYDRO CONCERN THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE 50S ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE
BREAK- UP ICE JAM POTENTIAL SEEMS FAIRLY LOW. ACCUMULATED FREEZING
DEGREE DAYS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR WINTER. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT
TO ASSESS HOW THICK RIVER ICE MAY BE ACROSS THE STATE. MINOR ICE
JAMMING COULD CAUSE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS...BUT NONE
SIGNIFICANTLY OUT OF THEIR BANKS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE APPROACHED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BELOW ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY...AND THE FORECAST HIGH.
GRAND RAPIDS: RECORD - 59 DEGREES IN 1930 AND 1913
FORECAST - 59 DEGREES
LANSING: RECORD - 60 DEGREES IN 1994
FORECAST - 54 DEGREES
MUSKEGON: RECORD - 57 DEGREES IN 1954
FORECAST - 56 DEGREES
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037>040-
043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...EBW
CLIMATE...NJJ
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1202 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WEST OF THE STATE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA DURING THE DAY TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT
BRING MUCH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. IT WILL BRING SOME
STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH WILL BE
EXPECTED. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE EXPECTED TODAY AS
HIGHS WILL APPROACH 60 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WITH
50S MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THEN THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER WARM WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED WITH NO REAL COLD AIR COMING IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM TODAY. WE WILL GRADUALLY COOL OFF THEN BEGINNING
ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES
OF RAIN AND SNOW ON SUNDAY...WITH SMALL CHANCES NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1202 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
I INCREASED WIND GUSTS TO AS HIGH AS 55 MPH BASED ON MIXING
HEIGHTS FROM THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRY
SLOT IS COMING THROUGH THE AREA NOW AND HELP THE CAUSE OF DEEPER
MIXING...VIA MOMENTUM TRANSFER (USING BUFKIT). THE HRRR SHOWS 70
KNOTS DOWN TO 2000 FT BY MID AFTERNOON. WE MAY GET AN ISOLATED
GUST TO WARNING CRITERIA BUT THIS SHOULD NOT BE A COMMON EVENT. I
WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT AS IS.
I RECENTERED OUR POP GRID TO FOCUS THE SHOWERS DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDING SHOW THETA-E-E DECREASING WITH
HEIGHT TO 10000 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND THERE IS SOME LIMITED
UNSTABLE CAPE. I EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS TO CROSS THE CWA MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE EQL IS BELOW THE
-20C HEIGHT SO I DO NOT BELIEVE THUNDERSTORMS ARE A REAL THREAT
HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THERE WERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN
MINNESOTA DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 55 TO 60 RANGE FROM I-96 SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THAT PART OF OUR FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
OUR MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH THE WIND POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON. WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA WITH A
GOOD POTENTIAL OF 50 MPH OCCURRING FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN THE WINDS...THE REST OF THE FCST IS RATHER
BENIGN WITH ONLY SOME PCPN CHCS AND WARM WEATHER EXPECTED.
THE PCPN THAT MOVED THROUGH LATE LAST EVENING AND VERY EARLY THIS
MORNING HAS QUICKLY MOVED OUT...AND IS EXITING THE STATE TO THE EAST
AS OF 08Z THIS MORNING. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PCPN/RAIN THIS MORNING AS WE WILL BE INBETWEEN PORTIONS OF THE
SYSTEM. AT LEAST THE SRN HALF OF THE CWFA WILL GET INTO THE WARM
SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON JUST BEFORE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH AFTER 18Z.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST
CHC WILL BE UP NORTH CLOSER TO THE LOW AND UPPER WAVE.
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THEY WILL LIKELY PEAK RIGHT AROUND OR IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT AS IT COMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE EURO HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE WARM SECTOR INTO THE AREA...ALLOWING
TEMPS TO APPROACH 60. WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WE WILL GET
INTO THE DRY SLOT AND LIKELY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SUN DOWN
SOUTH. WE SHOULD BE MIXING WELL AT THAT TIME...WITH GOOD POTENTIAL
OF MIXING CLOSE TO 50 KNOTS OF WIND FROM JUST 1-2K FT OFF OF THE
SFC. ALL DATA WE HAVE ANALYZED SHOWS 50 MPH WILL BE LIKELY FOR MOST
OF THE CWFA...WITH 55-60 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE CONFIDENCE
IS NOT THERE FOR THE 55-60 MPH WINDS/WARNING...BUT THE ADVISORY CAN
BE UPGRADED IF NECESSARY.
THE WINDS SHOULD COME DOWN BY MID EVENING AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES EAST
AND WE LOSE THE BETTER DIURNAL MIXING COMPONENT. SOME RESIDUAL
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UP NORTH AS TWO UPPER WAVES MOVE
THROUGH...ONE EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE SECOND OVERNIGHT. THE
SECOND WILL BE FURTHER NORTH AND WILL LIKELY HAVE LESS INFLUENCE ON
THE CWFA.
SAT AND SAT NIGHT LOOK QUIET AS WE WILL HAVE THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH
AND SHORT WAVES WILL STAY NORTH. WE WILL SEE PCPN CHCS INCREASE SOME
ON SUN AS WE SEE YET ANOTHER WAVE DIVE IN...THIS ONE TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS WILL TAKE MOST OF THE PCPN SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE. WE WILL BE
LEFT WITH SMALL CHCS OF PCPN FOR SUN AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN. THERE
WILL BE A CHC OF RAIN AND SNOW EARLY...CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW
CHCS BY SUN AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF
PCPN WILL BE EXPECTED ON SUN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY WITH FAIR AND COLDER WEATHER THEN
MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW MOVES OUT OF THE
GULF. THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES WITH
THIS LOW...AND SOME SOLUTIONS SHOW TWO OR MORE SEPARATE LOWS ALONG
WITH VARIOUS DEGREES OF NORTHERN STREAM PHASING. MOST OF THE
SOLUTIONS ARE CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND
GFS WITH ONE CONSOLIDATED LOW MOVING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH ITS
PRECIP SHIELD REMAINING WELL EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN.
WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY AS
UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH FOLLOWED BY CYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER STRATUS THIS MORNING WITH
CEILINGS AROUND 2500 FEET...BUT WE HAVE KEPT CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE
3000 FEET GIVEN THE LACK OF LOWER STRATUS CURRENTLY SEEN UPSTREAM.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 40 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1202 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
I KEPT THE GALE WARNING THROUGH 5 AM BUT TEMINATED IT AFTER THAT
AS WINDS DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE WILL NEED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVIOSRY ONCE THE GALE IS DONE THROUGH AND THAT SHOULD
LAST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST THU FEB 18 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MUCH WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALL OF THE SNOWPACK WILL MELT IN MOST
LOCATIONS...BUT THERE IS NOT A HUGE AMOUNT OF LIQUID WATER IN THE
SNOWPACK. A NOHRSC MODEL INDICATES 1 TO 2 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT
IS CONTAINED IN THE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE PERE MARQUETTE RIVER BASIN.
SO WE COULD CERTAINLY SEE RISES ON THE PERE MARQUETTE RIVER NEAR
SCOTTVILLE THIS WEEKEND. FORTUNATELY...NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
EVENTS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ICE JAMS ARE THE OTHER POTENTIAL HYDRO CONCERN THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE 50S ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE
BREAK- UP ICE JAM POTENTIAL SEEMS FAIRLY LOW. ACCUMULATED FREEZING
DEGREE DAYS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR WINTER. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT
TO ASSESS HOW THICK RIVER ICE MAY BE ACROSS THE STATE. MINOR ICE
JAMMING COULD CAUSE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS...BUT NONE
SIGNIFICANTLY OUT OF THEIR BANKS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE APPROACHED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BELOW ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY...AND THE FORECAST HIGH.
GRAND RAPIDS: RECORD - 59 DEGREES IN 1930 AND 1913
FORECAST - 59 DEGREES
LANSING: RECORD - 60 DEGREES IN 1994
FORECAST - 54 DEGREES
MUSKEGON: RECORD - 57 DEGREES IN 1954
FORECAST - 56 DEGREES
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037>040-
043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...EBW
CLIMATE...NJJ
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
430 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
STRONG UPPER WAVE THAT BROUGHT RAIN...A LITTLE SNOW OUT TOWARD
ALEXANDRIA...AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE TWIN CITIES INTO WI
THIS MORNING IS RACING ACROSS NRN WI THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS WAVE
CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER TO THE EAST...ALONG WITH THE ISALLOBARIC
HIGH MOVING ACROSS MN...WE HAVE SEEN THE WORST OF THE WINDS MOVE
EAST AS WELL...WITH MOSTLY SUB ADVISORY SPEEDS THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...SO HAVE CANCELED THE ADVISORY EARLY.
BESIDE THE STRONG WINDS PULLING EAST...TRAILING DEFORMATION PRECIP
IS QUICKLY PUSHING ACROSS WRN WI THIS AFTERNOON...AND BY SUNSET...THE
MPX AREA WILL BE DRY. EXPECT THOSE DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS TRAILING VORT MAX OVER SRN
SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTERNOON GOES ACROSS NRN MN TONIGHT...KEEPING ANY
ADDITIONAL PRECIP TO OUR NORTH. WHAT THIS SECONDARY WAVE WILL DO IS
SEND CLOUD COVER BACK ACROSS MN/WI LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING
ON SATURDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AGAIN ANTICIPATED FOR YOUR
SATURDAY.
FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN ANTICIPATED...DID GO A FEW DEGREES LOWER WITH BOTH LOWS
TONIGHT AND HIGHS AGAIN TOMORROW. THE SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS FOR
TOMORROW MATCHES THE TREND SEEN WITH CONSENSUS MODEL BLENDS...WHICH
CAME IN LOWER AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. BEYOND THIS CHANCE FOR
PRECIP...THE LONG TERM LOOKS DRY WITH MILD TEMPS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE WARM AND THE LIFT IS NOT VERY
GOOD...SO WE THINK THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS WITH ANY
PRECIP THAT FALLS DURING THIS TIME. MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY END
UP WITH NOTHING. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE A BIT
COOLER...HOWEVER...WITH A CANADIAN AIR MASS SPREADING ACROSS
MN/WI. EVEN WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE
30S THROUGH MID WEEK...PERHAPS WITH A DAY OR TWO HITTING 40 ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.
A FAIRLY ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON TUESDAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE LOCKED UP IN A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE
SOUTHERN CONUS UP THE EAST COAST. THAT BEING SAID THERE MIGHT BE
ENOUGH LIFT AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH. THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WOULD NEED TO MOVE CONSIDERABLY TO THE NORTH
TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA OF MN/WI. THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS IN THE EXTENDED WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE
TRUE ARCTIC AIR PENETRATES. THE ECMWF IS MILD...THE GFS IS VERY
VERY COLD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
BEEN A ROUGH MORNING FOR AVIATION WITH HIGHLY VARIABLE
CIGS..RAIN...SOME SNOW IN CENTRAL MN...AND EVEN THUNDER FROM THE
TWIN CITIES OVER TO EAU. HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE
FOR ALL THIS FUN PUSHES INTO WI...WE HAVE SEEN A MORE STEADY STATE
IN ATMO CONDITIONS DEVELOP...MAKING FOR A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IN
TAFS AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. HRRR HAS BEEN
DOING A DECENT JOB AT HANDLING LOWER CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING...SO
FOLLOWED IT FOR TIMING IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. OVER THE LAST HOUR...THE CLEARING HAS STARTED TO
ACCELERATE ACROSS ERN SODAK...SO STILL LOOKS GOOD TO SEE MAINLY
SKC SKIES EVERYWHERE BY THE TIME WE HIT 00Z. AFTER THAT...NEXT
CONCERN IS BATCH OF LOWER CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN SASKATCHEWAN.
GFS/NAM/SREF ALL SHOW THESE CIGS DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT...REACHING AXN BETWEEN 8Z AND 10Z AND EVENTUALLY EAU AROUND
15Z. LITTLE LESS CONFIDENT ON HOW LOW THEY WILL BE THIS FAR
SW...BUT ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR MVFR CIGS EXISTS TO BRING THEM BACK
FOR ALL BUT RWF AT THE END OF THE TAF.
KMSP...AS THINGS SETTLE DOWN...BEGINNING TO FEEL A BIT MORE
CONFIDENT IN CIG FORECAST...WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z. THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT STRONG WINDS BETWEEN
2K AND 5K FT AND COMPRESSION ISSUES FOR ARRIVING FLIGHTS...SO
ADDED A LLWS MENTION. FOR THE PERIOD WHERE LLWS IS MENTIONED...NAM
BUFKIT GUIDANCE SHOW THE WORST CONDITIONS HAPPENING BETWEEN ABOUT
2Z AND 8Z. RETURN OF MVFR CIGS SAT MORNING IN THE LAMP IS
SUPPORTED BY THE GFS/NAM/SREF...SO FELT IT PRUDENT TO BRING CIG
RESTRICTIONS BACK...WILL PROBABLY SEE VFR CIGS PRIOR TO 00Z
SUN...BUT WILL LET FUTURE TAFS TWEAK THAT TIMING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR CIGS LIKELY. WIND NNW AT 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS LATE. WIND SW AT 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS EARLY. WIND W AT 10-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1204 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
BIT OF A WILD MORNING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE
OVERHEAD PROVIDING LIFT ABOVE OUR EML TO GET SOME THUNDERSTORMS
GOING. AMAZINGLY...WHERE STORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER ERN
MN/WRN WI THIS MORNING...FREEZING LEVELS ARE UP OVER 8K FT...SO
NOT SEEING MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL WITH THESE STORMS.
ALSO HAVE CUT BACK ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ON HIGHS TODAY...THOUGH WE
MAY WISH TO SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S...REALITY IS THAT
BEHIND THIS FRONT PUSHING INTO WI...TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO
GET OUT OF THE 30S...SO TRENDED HIGH FORECAST FOR TODAY TOWARD THE
19.12 BIAS CORRECTED NAM. PARTIALLY TO BLAME FOR THE COOLER TEMPS
IS THE SLOWER PROGRESSION AND MORE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF
DEFORMATION PRECIP BEHIND THE SFC LOW. BESIDE THE
PRECIP...OVERCAST CONDITIONS EXIST WAY BACK INTO ERN SODAK AT
11AM...SO LESS SUN AND ASSOCIATED MIXING IS EXPECTED FOR THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL...FURTHER SUPPORTING THE REDUCTION IN FORECAST
HIGHS FOR TODAY.
FINALLY...HAD TO INTRODUCE SOME SNOW ACCUMS OUT TOWARD AXN...WHERE
ATMO HAS COOLED ENOUGH ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP TO SWITCH
THINGS OVER TO SNOW...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS REPORTED UP
THERE AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
WIND GUSTS AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO PRESENT A CHALLENGE FOR
TODAY. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND THERE
IS NO SILVER BULLET THAT WILL GIVE THE ANSWER AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
SURFACE WINDS WILL TAP INTO THE HIGH WIND SPEEDS ALOFT. THE ONE THING
THAT IS A BIT CONCERNING IS THE WIDESPREAD OBS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NEBRASKA WITH WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 KTS...BUT THESE LOCATIONS
HAVE ZERO SNOWPACK AND AS A RESULT HAVE A MUCH LESS STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER. HOWEVER...THEY DID OCCUR IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT WHICH
SAYS SOMETHING ABOUT THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS OFF THE RAP ARE STARTING TO CAPTURE THE PERIOD OF
STRONG WINDS...AND INDEED THE MIXED LAYER DOES SHOW 50KTS ATOP THE
CHANNEL IN WEST CENTRAL MN WHERE THERE IS LESS SNOWPACK AND SURFACE
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S. MEANWHILE...WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MN THE POTENTIAL TO
REALIZE THE WINDS ALOFT DECREASES.
VERY RARELY DOES MN AND WI MATCH THE WINDS OBSERVED UPSTREAM OVER
THE DAKOTAS...AND FOR NOW FEEL THAT THIS WILL BE NO DIFFERENT UNLESS
A RAIN SHOWER DEVELOPS AND BRINGS THE STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. FEEL A HIGH END WIND ADVISORY WILL COVER THIS EVENT...BUT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AN UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING IS
NEEDED. ITS CERTAINLY IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. LOOKING
AHEAD...EXPECT DRY WEATHER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
MILD TEMPERATURES ARE STILL THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT DURING THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AN ABSENCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
OUTSIDE OF MINIMAL SNOW CHANCES ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
TEMPS WILL REDUCE BACK DOWN A FEW DEGRESS FOR SATURDAY...AS
HEIGHTS LOWER SLIGHTLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ARE ANTICIPATED. THIS
WAVE IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE...BUT WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
WARRANT A 20-30 POP. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE...WITH NEAR-
FREEZING TEMPS ILLUSTRATING THE NEED FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MENTION.
NEXT WEEK THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE TROUGHING OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL MEAN NORTHWEST FLOW AND MILD
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BACK TOWARD OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
ANOTHER WAVE IS FORECAST STREAM OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HAVE
INCLUDED 20 POPS AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE LARGE DIFFERENCES THAT
EXIST REGARDING THE TIMING/STRENGTH/EXISTENCE OF THIS WAVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
BEEN A ROUGH MORNING FOR AVIATION WITH HIGHLY VARIABLE
CIGS..RAIN...SOME SNOW IN CENTRAL MN...AND EVEN THUNDER FROM THE
TWIN CITIES OVER TO EAU. HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE
FOR ALL THIS FUN PUSHES INTO WI...WE HAVE SEEN A MORE STEADY STATE
IN ATMO CONDITIONS DEVELOP...MAKING FOR A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IN
TAFS AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. HRRR HAS BEEN
DOING A DECENT JOB AT HANDLING LOWER CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING...SO
FOLLOWED IT FOR TIMING IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. OVER THE LAST HOUR...THE CLEARING HAS STARTED TO
ACCELERATE ACROSS ERN SODAK...SO STILL LOOKS GOOD TO SEE MAINLY
SKC SKIES EVERYWHERE BY THE TIME WE HIT 00Z. AFTER THAT...NEXT
CONCERN IS BATCH OF LOWER CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN SASKATCHEWAN.
GFS/NAM/SREF ALL SHOW THESE CIGS DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT...REACHING AXN BETWEEN 8Z AND 10Z AND EVENTUALLY EAU AROUND
15Z. LITTLE LESS CONFIDENT ON HOW LOW THEY WILL BE THIS FAR
SW...BUT ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR MVFR CIGS EXISTS TO BRING THEM BACK
FOR ALL BUT RWF AT THE END OF THE TAF.
KMSP...AS THINGS SETTLE DOWN...BEGINNING TO FEEL A BIT MORE
CONFIDENT IN CIG FORECAST...WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z. THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT STRONG WINDS BETWEEN
2K AND 5K FT AND COMPRESSION ISSUES FOR ARRIVING FLIGHTS...SO
ADDED A LLWS MENTION. FOR THE PERIOD WHERE LLWS IS MENTIONED...NAM
BUFKIT GUIDANCE SHOW THE WORST CONDITIONS HAPPENING BETWEEN ABOUT
2Z AND 8Z. RETURN OF MVFR CIGS SAT MORNING IN THE LAMP IS
SUPPORTED BY THE GFS/NAM/SREF...SO FELT IT PRUDENT TO BRING CIG
RESTRICTIONS BACK...WILL PROBABLY SEE VFR CIGS PRIOR TO 00Z
SUN...BUT WILL LET FUTURE TAFS TWEAK THAT TIMING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR CIGS LIKELY. WIND NNW AT 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS LATE. WIND SW AT 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS EARLY. WIND W AT 10-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ026-028.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ047-054>056-064-
065-067-073>078-082>085-091>093.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MPG
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1052 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
BIT OF A WILD MORNING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE
OVERHEAD PROVIDING LIFT ABOVE OUR EML TO GET SOME THUNDERSTORMS
GOING. AMAZINGLY...WHERE STORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER ERN
MN/WRN WI THIS MORNING...FREEZING LEVELS ARE UP OVER 8K FT...SO
NOT SEEING MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL WITH THESE STORMS.
ALSO HAVE CUT BACK ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ON HIGHS TODAY...THOUGH WE
MAY WISH TO SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S...REALITY IS THAT
BEHIND THIS FRONT PUSHING INTO WI...TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO
GET OUT OF THE 30S...SO TRENDED HIGH FORECAST FOR TODAY TOWARD THE
19.12 BIAS CORRECTED NAM. PARTIALLY TO BLAME FOR THE COOLER TEMPS
IS THE SLOWER PROGRESSION AND MORE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF
DEFORMATION PRECIP BEHIND THE SFC LOW. BESIDE THE
PRECIP...OVERCAST CONDITIONS EXIST WAY BACK INTO ERN SODAK AT
11AM...SO LESS SUN AND ASSOCIATED MIXING IS EXPECTED FOR THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL...FURTHER SUPPORTING THE REDUCTION IN FORECAST
HIGHS FOR TODAY.
FINALLY...HAD TO INTRODUCE SOME SNOW ACCUMS OUT TOWARD AXN...WHERE
ATMO HAS COOLED ENOUGH ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP TO SWITCH
THINGS OVER TO SNOW...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS REPORTED UP
THERE AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
WIND GUSTS AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO PRESENT A CHALLENGE FOR
TODAY. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND THERE
IS NO SILVER BULLET THAT WILL GIVE THE ANSWER AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
SURFACE WINDS WILL TAP INTO THE HIGH WIND SPEEDS ALOFT. THE ONE THING
THAT IS A BIT CONCERNING IS THE WIDESPREAD OBS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NEBRASKA WITH WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 KTS...BUT THESE LOCATIONS
HAVE ZERO SNOWPACK AND AS A RESULT HAVE A MUCH LESS STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER. HOWEVER...THEY DID OCCUR IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT WHICH
SAYS SOMETHING ABOUT THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS OFF THE RAP ARE STARTING TO CAPTURE THE PERIOD OF
STRONG WINDS...AND INDEED THE MIXED LAYER DOES SHOW 50KTS ATOP THE
CHANNEL IN WEST CENTRAL MN WHERE THERE IS LESS SNOWPACK AND SURFACE
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S. MEANWHILE...WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MN THE POTENTIAL TO
REALIZE THE WINDS ALOFT DECREASES.
VERY RARELY DOES MN AND WI MATCH THE WINDS OBSERVED UPSTREAM OVER
THE DAKOTAS...AND FOR NOW FEEL THAT THIS WILL BE NO DIFFERENT UNLESS
A RAIN SHOWER DEVELOPS AND BRINGS THE STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. FEEL A HIGH END WIND ADVISORY WILL COVER THIS EVENT...BUT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AN UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING IS
NEEDED. ITS CERTAINLY IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. LOOKING
AHEAD...EXPECT DRY WEATHER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
MILD TEMPERATURES ARE STILL THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT DURING THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AN ABSENCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
OUTSIDE OF MINIMAL SNOW CHANCES ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
TEMPS WILL REDUCE BACK DOWN A FEW DEGRESS FOR SATURDAY...AS
HEIGHTS LOWER SLIGHTLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ARE ANTICIPATED. THIS
WAVE IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE...BUT WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
WARRANT A 20-30 POP. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE...WITH NEAR-
FREEZING TEMPS ILLUSTRATING THE NEED FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MENTION.
NEXT WEEK THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE TROUGHING OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL MEAN NORTHWEST FLOW AND MILD
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BACK TOWARD OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
ANOTHER WAVE IS FORECAST STREAM OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HAVE
INCLUDED 20 POPS AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE LARGE DIFFERENCES THAT
EXIST REGARDING THE TIMING/STRENGTH/EXISTENCE OF THIS WAVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016
AT THIS POINT STRATUS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY. HIRES MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE IT...BUT IT HAS NOT FORMED YET SO HAVE
SCALED BACK IN THE TAFS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST...AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
KMSP...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE YET TO DEVELOP...SO WILL GO AGAINST FORECAST
GUIDANCE AND REMOVE THEM THIS MORNING SINCE IT APPEARS UNLIKELY
THEY WILL FORM. WINDS ARE SLOWER TO SHIFT AS WELL...SO DELAYED
THEM IN THE TAF. WESTERLY WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND WNW AT 10G20 KTS.
SUN...VFR/MVFR WITH -RA/-SN POSSIBLE. WIND NW AT 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND SW AT 10G15KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ026-028.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ047-054>056-064-
065-067-073>078-082>085-091>093.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MPG
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1010 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER PLOTS SHOWED A LARGE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE GULF...WHILE IN THE
LOW LEVELS HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
THIS WAS PROVIDING SOME LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW OVER THE REGION.
LOW LEVEL STRATUS WAS LIFTING OVER THE WESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING.
AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE WARMING IN THE LOW LEVELS. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WAS OBSERVED ESP ACROSS THE DELTA REGION WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30 MPH. EXPECT THOSE BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ESP IN THE
DELTA REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVELS MIX OUT. CURRENT
FORECAST TEMPS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER TO
UPPER 70S AS TEMPS WARM QUICKLY THIS MORNING. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO HOURLY SKY GRIDS, SURFACE WINDS AND TEMPS./17/
.AVIATION...VFR CIGS WILL BE THE RULE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS 10
TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH...DIMINISHING AFTER 20/00Z.
MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE IN AFTER 20/06Z AS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES. BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT JAN...HKS...MEI AND HBG WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BY 20/15Z./26/
./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...458 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS PUSHING LOW CLOUDS QUICKLY
INTO WESTERN ZONES CURRENTLY AND HRRR SUGGESTS THESE CLOUDS WILL GET
TO ROUGHLY THE I- 55 CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. AFTER 8 OR 9 AM
THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING MUCH FURTHER EAST...WITH
THE BROKEN LOW CLOUD DECKS OVER WESTERN ZONES SUBSEQUENTLY LIFTING
NORTH AND BREAKING UP THROUGH MIDDAY. ADDITIONALLY...ALONG AND EAST
OF THE I- 55 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHERN MS THERE IS CURRENTLY LOCALLY DENSE
FOG FORMING AND WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS A BIT LIGHTER. THIS DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK WILL LIKELY REMAIN QUITE
CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MS AND THEREFORE NOT
WARRANTING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY (ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE COVERED IN THE
HWO).
OTHERWISE FOR TODAY...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AFTER THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG LIFT BY MIDDAY. THE TREND
FROM YESTERDAY WAS FOR TEMPERATURES TO TREND WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED...
AND THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AGAIN AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY
SHOULD CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND AND MAXIMUMS WERE GENERALLY PLACED
NEAR THE TOP END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
THE SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT GETTING STARTED THIS MORNING WILL
BE MORE IN FULL SWING BY TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN LOTS OF
LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THESE CLOUDS AND
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD HOLD LOWS UP IN THE MILD 50S.
ON SATURDAY INCOMING SOUTHERN JET STREAM ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A
FLAT UPPER WAVE WILL SPREAD A LOT MORE HIGH TO MID LAYER CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. THIS
ENERGY COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH BEST (BUT STILL LOW) CHANCES OF
MEASUREMENT BEING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO AGAIN BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE
50S. /BB/
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE STRETCH OF VERY MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE TO COME TO AN END EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WETTER AND COOLER
PATTERN TAKES SHAPE. FOR SUNDAY...HAVE FOLLOWED A WARMER BLEND OF
GUIDANCE GIVEN SUBSIDENT FLOW AND STRONG MIXING AND RECENT TRENDS OF
OVERACHIEVING WARMTH. A LARGE LOW-MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD SLOW
DOWN THE PUSH OF A POLAR FRONT INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LIMIT
SIGNIFICANT PREFRONTAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND LEND TO MORE OF
AN ANAFRONTAL RAINFALL SCENARIO INITIALLY WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES
ALONG/N OF THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR.
SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SEND THE FRONT WELL INTO THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY LEADING TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHES 1.5 INCHES.
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SOME SINCE YESTERDAY REGARDING THE FORECAST
FRONTAL POSITIONS AND AT LEAST TWO SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSAGES ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT NAEFS GUIDANCE IS STILL NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN INGREDIENTS...AND IT SUGGESTS THAT
UPSTREAM MOISTURE TRANSPORT COULD LEAD TO BETTER MOISTURE BEING
INTERCEPTED BEFORE MOVING INTO THE ARKLAMISS. THIS IS A LOT TO
CONSIDER SO FAR OUT IN TIME...AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT ANY
MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS. AS WE GO INTO
MID WEEK...DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE ARKLAMISS WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATIC NORMAL. /EC/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 76 55 74 58 / 0 1 7 12
MERIDIAN 75 53 74 56 / 0 1 10 9
VICKSBURG 78 56 76 59 / 0 3 7 12
HATTIESBURG 77 55 74 56 / 0 2 11 7
NATCHEZ 77 56 76 60 / 0 2 8 10
GREENVILLE 72 57 71 59 / 0 9 9 18
GREENWOOD 75 57 72 59 / 0 7 8 19
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
17/26/BB/EC/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1108 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
THE PV1.5 ANOMALY IS STILL ACROSS NCNTL NEB AND EXTENDS BACK INTO
SHERIDAN COUNTY. THE 12Z KLBF UA SOUNDING IS CARRYING 65 KT WINDS
AT 800 MB WHICH THE RAP SHOWS MIXING DOWN BETWEEN 14Z-17Z THIS
MORNING. WINDS ALOFT SHOULD RELAX THEREAFTER ACCORDING TO THE RAP
MODEL.
THE HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH 18Z THIS MORNING IS ON
TRACK. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH OR NEAR HIGH WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP
THIS MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH WINDS ARE STILL UNDERWAY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. VALENTINE ASOS GUSTED TO 68 MPH AT AROUND 2 AM CST.
PIERRE SD...76 MPH AT AROUND 3 AM CST.
THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS ON TRACK AND CAN OPERATE AS SCHEDULED. SOME
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61 COULD BE CLEARED IN AN HOUR OR
TWO...CONDITIONS PERMITTING...AS THE PRESSURE RISES ARE BEGINNING TO
SUBSIDE ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE.
SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL TODAY AND WINDS WILL RELAX MOSTLY ACROSS SWRN
NEB. WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE SANDHILLS...20 TO
30 MPH. WINDS AT 700MB DIMINISH TO 40 TO 50 KT BY MID AFTERNOON.
DEEP VERTICAL MIXING CONTINUES TODAY TO NEAR 700MB IN THE RAP
SOUNDINGS AT VALENTINE AND NORTH PLATTE. UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOMENTUM DOWNWARD WITH THE MIXING. DOUBLE
BARREL SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL COALESCE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES
AIDING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...MAINLY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS TODAY RISE INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 USING THE
WARMEST GUIDANCE.
LIGHT WINDS DEVELOP ALL AREAS TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
MID RANGE...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
TEMPERATURES. A FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SHORTWAVE SOON AFTER. AT 850HPA...SOUTHWEST FLOW AND TEMPS NEAR 11C
AT 06Z SATURDAY TRANSITIONS TO NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPS
AROUND 8C AT 00Z SUNDAY. TRENDED TOWARD MAV AND ECM GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPS BUT STILL 3-5F LOWER THAN THEY SUGGEST. CONCERNS ARE EARLIER
SWITCH TO NORTH WINDS AND EARLIER ONSET OF CLOUDS. KEPT PRECIP
MENTION OUT OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING.
SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WHAT WILL LIKELY BE TOO
MUCH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH MOISTURE WITH A VERY BRIEF PERIOD WHERE LIFT AND MOISTURE
COINCIDE BELOW 700HPA...BUT WITH CONFIDENCE LOW AND QPF WOULD BE
VERY LIMITED...JUST DECIDED TO STAY DRY. MADE LITTLE ADJUSTMENT TO
SUNDAY MAX TEMPS AS CONTINUED CAA AT 850HPA...DROPPING TO NEAR 0C BY
00Z MONDAY...SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. MAY BE BREEZY
SUNDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A WELL MIXED LAYER TO
800HPA WHERE WINDS ARE NEAR 25KTS FROM NAM SOUNDINGS.
LONG RANGE...MONDAY TO THURSDAY...QUASI ZONAL FLOW AT 500HPA TURNS
NEARLY MERIDIONAL BY WEDNESDAY WITH A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. AS SHOWN BY THE EURO...AND THEN NORTHWEST FLOW BY
THURSDAY. SCALED BACK PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. EURO AND GFS MAINLY CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING BEST
FORCING AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH...BUT NEAR SURFACE DRY AIR MAY
BE AN ISSUE AGAIN. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT TEMP ADVECTION OVER THE
PERIOD AND CONSISTENT NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW AT 850HPA CORRESPOND TO
MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1104 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WIND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DIMINISHING
THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOMING LESS THAN 12KT AFTER 00Z. WIND IS THEN
LIKELY TO INCREASE AND BECOME 280-320 AT 12-14KT LATE SATURDAY
MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
THE RAP...GFS AND HRRR MODELS SHOW DEW POINTS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE 60S.
COUPLED WITH REASONABLY STRONG WINDS...CRITICAL FIRE DANGER SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND SWRN NEB. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
PLACE FOR THOSE AREAS.
AREAS EAST MAY REACH THE HUMIDITY AND WIND CRITERIA BUT FUEL STATUS
IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE FINER SOIL OF THOSE REGIONS WHICH MIGHT KEEP
THE FUELS MORE MOIST.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NEZ004>010-022>028-035>037-056>059-069>071-094.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ204-206-210.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...SPRINGER
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
210 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW ENHANCING WINDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. UPGRADED ADVISORY TO HIGH WIND WARNING THERE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1106 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
NEW MODEL DATA (NAM/GFS) NOW SHOW BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL WITH BUT
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL LACK SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS AT THE SURFACE
FROM THESE TOW MODELS. THE 15Z RAP SHORT RANGE MODEL IS THE ONLY
ONE THAT CONSISTENTLY GIVES STRONG WINDS. BELIEVE THE RAP MUCH
BETTER AS SURFACE WINDS ALREADY GUSTING 30 TO 45 MPH ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND 20 TO 30 CENTRAL AS OF 11 AM CST. SO CURRENT
ADVISORY/WARNING HEADLINES LOOK GOOD. WILL UP MAX TEMPS TODAY TO
MID 50S SOUTH CENTRAL WHICH WOULD BE NEAR THE RECORD OF 56 AT
BISMARCK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 846 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WINDS TODAY. INITIAL PRESSURE RISE CAME
THROUGH LAST NIGHT AND GENERATED GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE NOT SEEN NEW
MODEL DATA YET BUT THE 06Z NAM SHOWS THE GRADIENT WINDS PICKING
UP VERY WELL BUT IN A REGION OF NEUTRAL OR EVEN WARM ADVECTION.
THE NEXT PRESSURE RISE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
RETURN OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS ADDED MIXING OVERNIGHT
SHOULD MAKE FOR A BREEZY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORIES/WARNINGS
AT THIS TIME UNTIL NEW MODEL DATA COMES IN. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
SOUTHWEST WHERE IT APPEARS MIXING WILL BE BETTER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
INITIAL SURGE OF STRONG WINDS HAS MADE IT THROUGH WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKED ALONG THE
ND/SD BORDER CURRENTLY OVER WCNTRL MN JUST EAST OF SISSETON SD.
DENSE FOG HAS ABATED OVER EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
A FEW LOCALES AROUND A MILE YET FROM RUGBY TO ROLLA. EXPECT THESE
TO IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WERE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA. WILL
EXTEND THE SPS FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND FOG JUST OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF
THE SOUTH CENTRAL THIS MORNING. UPDATED POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY. AS FAR AS WINDS...WE ARE STILL GUSTING A BIT OVER THE FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL...BUT MOSTLY IN A LULL THIS MORNING UNTIL WE SEE THE
MIXING LAYER INCREASE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...MOST LIKELY BY
AROUND MID MORNING WEST TO EARLY AFTERNOON CENTRAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION
THIS MORNING SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST...AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY.
CURRENTLY...QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A S/W TROUGH MOVING OVER
THE DAKOTAS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.
PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW GENERATING SOME PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE WIND GUSTS THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. STRONGEST WINDS
WERE IN SOUTH DAKOTA WERE 68KTS WAS OBSERVED JUST SOUTH OF THE
ND/SD BORDER. LESSER WINDS OVER NORTH DAKOTA BUT STILL HAD A FEW
AT 45KTS UP TO 52KTS. WINDS LAST AN HOUR MAYBE TWO THEN QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS THE BUBBLE CONTINUES EASTWARD. LEFT WIND HEADLINES
THIS MORNING AS IS WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS TODAY (MORE
ON THAT BELOW).
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. FREEZING
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE EAST WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE NEAR FREEZING.
WILL MAINTAIN THE SPC FOR THIS AS IS FOR NOW AS DO EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO WARM AS THE PRESSURE SURGE RAMPS UP THE WINDS OVER
MY EAST NOW THROUGH 12Z. HAVE OBSERVED SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES
OVER LOGAN...STUTSMAN...AND BARNES COUNTY LAST HOUR OR SO WITH
ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR A FEW BRIEF UPDRAFTS.
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER OVER MY SOUTHEAST THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THEN
SHOULD BE DRY FOR THIS ROUND. ANOTHER EMBEDDED S/WV TROUGH NOW
MOVING INTO NORTHERN MONTANA WILL CONTINUE EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE
STATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS
WITH THE SFC LOW OVER FAR SOUTHERN SK/MB...LEADING TO AN INCREASE
IN WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION. MIXING LAYER IS VERY SHALLOW WITH NEUTRAL
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION SO WE WILL LIKELY NOT TAP INTO THE STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT MUCH. STILL...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGHER
GUSTS SO WILL KEEP WIND HEADLINES GOING TODAY AND LET THE DAY CREW
ADJUST AS NEEDED. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHWEST...AND ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CAA DOES
MATERIALIZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INCOMING S/WV. SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR POSSIBLE SNOW IS FORECAST NORTH TODAY WITH THE WAVE AS
WELL...AND THIS TOO MAY ALLOW SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO
MIX TOWARDS THE SURFACE.
MAINLY DRY TONIGHT BUT CONTINUED BREEZY NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
A SERIES OF CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE FIRST SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIP THAT MOVES INTO THE
WEST SATURDAY MORNING WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL AT OR
BELOW FREEZING AND UNTIL ENTIRE COLUMN MOISTENS UP. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR BUT AT THIS TIME THE RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION
IS MINIMAL. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM
ALSO...WHICH WOULD LESSEN THE RISK OF FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY
MORNING. BY MID TO LATE MORNING PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW DROP SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER A RAIN/SNOW
MIX SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO
ALL SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AS COOLER TEMPERATURES FILTER IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WOULD PUT HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS (0.5
TO 1.5 INCHES) SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FROM AROUND CROSBY
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS
OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL.
A WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY-TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. EACH BRINGING SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW AND
SOME WINDS...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES.
OVERALL THOUGH...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM SEASONABLE
NORTHEAST TO MILD SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1106 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION TODAY WILL BE GUSTY WEST WINDS OF 30 TO
45KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50KTS AT KDIK. STRONG LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER WYOMING IS THE
FOCUS FOR THE STRONG WINDS FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
LOW VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS KISN-KMOT AFTER 00Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING FROM 40 TO 60 MPH FRIDAY
WILL POSE A CONCERN FOR WIND-DRIVEN FIRES...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ND WHERE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES MAY REACH 30 PERCENT.
HOWEVER...THIS AREA DID RECEIVE PRECIPITATION EARLIER TONIGHT SO
AT THIS TIME DO NOT PLAN ON HEADLINES. NFDRS FIRE DANGER RATING
BELOW THE HIGH OR GREATER CATEGORY AS WELL.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001-
009>011-019>021-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA
FIRE WEATHER...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1121 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1106 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
NEW MODEL DATA (NAM/GFS) NOW SHOW BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL WITH BUT
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL LACK SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS AT THE SURFACE
FROM THESE TOW MODELS. THE 15Z RAP SHORT RANGE MODEL IS THE ONLY
ONE THAT CONSISTENTLY GIVES STRONG WINDS. BELIEVE THE RAP MUCH
BETTER AS SURFACE WINDS ALREADY GUSTING 30 TO 45 MPH ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND 20 TO 30 CENTRAL AS OF 11 AM CST. SO CURRENT
ADVISORY/WARNING HEADLINES LOOK GOOD. WILL UP MAX TEMPS TODAY TO
MID 50S SOUTH CENTRAL WHICH WOULD BE NEAR THE RECORD OF 56 AT
BISMARCK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 846 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WINDS TODAY. INITIAL PRESSURE RISE CAME
THROUGH LAST NIGHT AND GENERATED GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE NOT SEEN NEW
MODEL DATA YET BUT THE 06Z NAM SHOWS THE GRADIENT WINDS PICKING
UP VERY WELL BUT IN A REGION OF NEUTRAL OR EVEN WARM ADVECTION.
THE NEXT PRESSURE RISE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
RETURN OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS ADDED MIXING OVERNIGHT
SHOULD MAKE FOR A BREEZY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORIES/WARNINGS
AT THIS TIME UNTIL NEW MODEL DATA COMES IN. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
SOUTHWEST WHERE IT APPEARS MIXING WILL BE BETTER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
INITIAL SURGE OF STRONG WINDS HAS MADE IT THROUGH WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKED ALONG THE
ND/SD BORDER CURRENTLY OVER WCNTRL MN JUST EAST OF SISSETON SD.
DENSE FOG HAS ABATED OVER EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
A FEW LOCALES AROUND A MILE YET FROM RUGBY TO ROLLA. EXPECT THESE
TO IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WERE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA. WILL
EXTEND THE SPS FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND FOG JUST OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF
THE SOUTH CENTRAL THIS MORNING. UPDATED POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY. AS FAR AS WINDS...WE ARE STILL GUSTING A BIT OVER THE FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL...BUT MOSTLY IN A LULL THIS MORNING UNTIL WE SEE THE
MIXING LAYER INCREASE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...MOST LIKELY BY
AROUND MID MORNING WEST TO EARLY AFTERNOON CENTRAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION
THIS MORNING SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST...AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY.
CURRENTLY...QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A S/W TROUGH MOVING OVER
THE DAKOTAS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.
PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW GENERATING SOME PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE WIND GUSTS THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. STRONGEST WINDS
WERE IN SOUTH DAKOTA WERE 68KTS WAS OBSERVED JUST SOUTH OF THE
ND/SD BORDER. LESSER WINDS OVER NORTH DAKOTA BUT STILL HAD A FEW
AT 45KTS UP TO 52KTS. WINDS LAST AN HOUR MAYBE TWO THEN QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS THE BUBBLE CONTINUES EASTWARD. LEFT WIND HEADLINES
THIS MORNING AS IS WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS TODAY (MORE
ON THAT BELOW).
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. FREEZING
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE EAST WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE NEAR FREEZING.
WILL MAINTAIN THE SPC FOR THIS AS IS FOR NOW AS DO EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO WARM AS THE PRESSURE SURGE RAMPS UP THE WINDS OVER
MY EAST NOW THROUGH 12Z. HAVE OBSERVED SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES
OVER LOGAN...STUTSMAN...AND BARNES COUNTY LAST HOUR OR SO WITH
ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR A FEW BRIEF UPDRAFTS.
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER OVER MY SOUTHEAST THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THEN
SHOULD BE DRY FOR THIS ROUND. ANOTHER EMBEDDED S/WV TROUGH NOW
MOVING INTO NORTHERN MONTANA WILL CONTINUE EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE
STATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS
WITH THE SFC LOW OVER FAR SOUTHERN SK/MB...LEADING TO AN INCREASE
IN WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION. MIXING LAYER IS VERY SHALLOW WITH NEUTRAL
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION SO WE WILL LIKELY NOT TAP INTO THE STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT MUCH. STILL...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGHER
GUSTS SO WILL KEEP WIND HEADLINES GOING TODAY AND LET THE DAY CREW
ADJUST AS NEEDED. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHWEST...AND ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CAA DOES
MATERIALIZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INCOMING S/WV. SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR POSSIBLE SNOW IS FORECAST NORTH TODAY WITH THE WAVE AS
WELL...AND THIS TOO MAY ALLOW SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO
MIX TOWARDS THE SURFACE.
MAINLY DRY TONIGHT BUT CONTINUED BREEZY NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
A SERIES OF CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE FIRST SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIP THAT MOVES INTO THE
WEST SATURDAY MORNING WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL AT OR
BELOW FREEZING AND UNTIL ENTIRE COLUMN MOISTENS UP. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR BUT AT THIS TIME THE RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION
IS MINIMAL. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM
ALSO...WHICH WOULD LESSEN THE RISK OF FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY
MORNING. BY MID TO LATE MORNING PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW DROP SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER A RAIN/SNOW
MIX SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO
ALL SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AS COOLER TEMPERATURES FILTER IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WOULD PUT HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS (0.5
TO 1.5 INCHES) SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FROM AROUND CROSBY
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS
OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL.
A WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY-TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. EACH BRINGING SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW AND
SOME WINDS...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES.
OVERALL THOUGH...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM SEASONABLE
NORTHEAST TO MILD SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1106 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION TODAY WILL BE GUSTY WEST WINDS OF 30 TO
45KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50KTS AT KDIK. STRONG LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER WYOMING IS THE
FOCUS FOR THE STRONG WINDS FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BRING SCATTEREDSHOWERS
AND LOW VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS KISN-KMOT AFTER 00Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING FROM 40 TO 60 MPH FRIDAY
WILL POSE A CONCERN FOR WIND-DRIVEN FIRES...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ND WHERE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES MAY REACH 30 PERCENT.
HOWEVER...THIS AREA DID RECEIVE PRECIPITATION EARLIER TONIGHT SO
AT THIS TIME DO NOT PLAN ON HEADLINES. NFDRS FIRE DANGER RATING
BELOW THE HIGH OR GREATER CATEGORY AS WELL.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ003>005-010>013-017>023-025-031>037-041-042-045>048-050-051.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ040-043-
044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA
FIRE WEATHER...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
312 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SEVERAL AREAS OF CONCERN FOR TONIGHT. FIRST ARE THE WINDS.
CURRENT WIND GUSTS REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NW AND NC OHIO
AS WELL AS ERIE PA. SHORT TERM MODELS HRRR AND RUC SHOW THE PEAK
WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON DECREASING THIS EVENING. CURRENT
ADVISORY RUNS UNTIL 9PM. I BELIEVE WINDS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY A
FEW HOURS BEFORE 9PM BUT I WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT ADVISORY END
TIME ALONE. THE MODELS SHOWS A WELL MIXED LAYER UNTIL ~ 00Z. THE
12Z MODEL RUN SHOWS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE OVER NE OH AND NW PA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I AM
NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT IN THE EXTENT OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
OVER THAT AREA AND I AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE IT. I WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS OVER NE OH AND NW PA THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO RISE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE WARM
FRONT PUSHES NORTH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AFTER OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A FAST ZONAL FLOW DEVELOP ON SATURDAY. A SHORT
WAVE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT I DO NOT EXPECT
ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
ARE DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FOR SATURDAY. THE NAM BEING MUCH COOLER
THAN THE GFS...UP TO A 10 DEGREE DIFFERENCE. I WILL SHAVE A FEW
DEGREES OFF MAV GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENCE IN THE
MODELS. A SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND TRACK
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND NAM DIFFER
WITH THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS THE AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION. THE GFS IS THE DRIEST OF THE TWO MODELS AND HAS
VIRTUALLY NO PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM IS WET
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS HIGH CHANCE
POPS OVER THE THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY. I AM GOING TO START TRENDING
THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION BUT I WILL NOT TOTALLY
REMOVE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THIS TIME AS THE NAM REMAINS
WET.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD HOLD ON LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
AREA DRY INTO TUE MORNING BUT BY LATE TUE MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE
RAIN OR SNOW FROM A SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH MAY SPREAD NORTH INTO THE
CWA. THE UPPER TROUGH APPEARS TOO DEEP TO NOT CAUSE SNOW TO GET
PULLED NNW OVER A GOOD PART OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH A
TRANSITION TO MORE OF A LAKE EFFECT EVENT FOR THU AND FRI. THERE
ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE SMALLER FEATURES WHICH CREATE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY BUT IN GENERAL THE MODELS DO SHOW THE POLAR
VORTEX SETTING UP CAMP AROUND THE HUDSON BAY AREA FOR THE REST OF
THE MONTH. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A SHIFT BACK TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AND DECENT CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FROM THU ON.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOUTH WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT
WHILE VEERING TO SW. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT TURBULENCE WITH THE GUSTY
WINDS. CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY VFR BUT THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR AT ERI AROUND THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU AND POSSIBLY PRODUCES SOME SHRA.
OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR LIKELY SUN INTO SUN NIGHT THEN WIDESPREAD NON
VFR POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED.
&&
.MARINE...
STILL THINK THE WARM AIR TEMPS RELATIVE TO LAKE ERIE`S ICY
WATERS SHOULD KEEP WINDS AT 30 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT THRU SAT AS A
COLD FRONT CAUSES WINDS TO VEER FROM SOUTH TO WEST. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATER SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THRU THE LAKE THEN PICK BACK UP A LITTLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON
AFTER A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY AND WINDS LINE UP OUT OF THE
NORTH. WINDS VEER TO NE FOR TUE AND WED AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH SHIFTS INTO MAINE. LOW PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE GULF
AND HEAD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY WED WHICH WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND THUS THE WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES
CREATE UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-006>009-
017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001-002.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1243 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW UPDATES TO THIS FORECAST. WIND ADVISORY APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS HAVE BEEN NOTED EAST OF THE ADVISORY
AREA BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE CONSISTENT ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS
REMAIN IN THE ADVISORY AREA. BOTH THE RUC AND HRRR ARE CONSISTENT
WITH THE HIGHER GUSTS REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES/ERIE PA.
I HAVE ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS FROM THE PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY IN THE
FORECAST TODAY. WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED NW OHIO AND ERIE
COUNTY PA. SOUTHEAST WINDS IN ERIE COUNTY PA WILL BE ENHANCED BY
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE CITY OF ERIE WITH GUSTS
TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE. SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT WINDS THROUGH 5K FEET
ARE NOT AS UNI-DIRECTIONAL AS WE USUALLY SEE BUT APPEARS TO BE
ENOUGH MOMENTUM WITH THE DOWNSLOPING TO STILL GET THE HIGHER GUSTS.
FOR NW OHIO...THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT REALLY
TIGHTENS UP. THE GFS SEEMS TO STRONG WITH THE WINDS BUT EVEN THE NAM
SHOWS WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH. THE GUSTS ARE HARDER TO
DETERMINE IN NW OHIO WITH A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATED THE INVERSION WILL BE AROUND 500 FEET THIS
MORNING...INCREASING TO 1000 FEET OR MORE THIS AFTERNOON. A 60-70
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVERHEAD BUT THE INVERSION SHOULD
PREVENT THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. IT DOES SEEM WIND
GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH WILL OCCUR AT TIMES SO INCLUDED ALL COUNTIES WEST
OF A ERIE/HURON/ASHLAND/KNOX LINE IN THE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9AM-9PM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE OTHER INTERESTING CONSIDERATION IN THE
FORECAST TODAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH. TEMPERATURES ARE
ALREADY IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES WITH LOWER 50S
OBSERVED UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS IS THE AIRMASS THAT
WILL ARRIVE TODAY AND HAVE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 50S WEST TO MID
40S EAST. THE SNOWPACK WILL LIMIT WARMING TO SOME EXTENT IN THE EAST
TODAY BUT DO EXPECT TO START EATING AWAY AT THAT SNOWPACK...
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS DEWPOINTS SURGE TO NEAR 40 DEGREES.
DESPITE INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THIS MORNING...IT WILL TAKE
UNTIL AFTERNOON FOR THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ARRIVE AND JUST HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS...MOSTLY
IN THE EAST. ANY SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AND BRIEF. DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE ARRIVE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AND EXPECT MOST AREAS TO
CLEAR OUT BY MORNING. WENT NEAR THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE TONIGHT
WITH BREEZY WINDS CONTINUING.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES(EXCEPT PARTLY SUNNY IN THE FAR EAST) SHOULD HELP
BOOST TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. WENT CLOSE
TO THE HIGHER MAV GUIDANCE AGAIN WITH FAIRLY GOOD MIXING
EXPECTED.
A SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW FINALLY PULLS AWAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS CONTINUE TO PLACE THE BEST
CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN OHIO SO POPS REMAIN IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY WITH HIGHEST POPS IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BROAD TROUGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE U.S.
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS THE GULF STATES WILL DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE UP
THE EAST COAST. THIS SOLUTION IS GETTING MORE TRACTION. BUT A
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL BE HEADED OUR WAY FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED TO OUR
NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...AND WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED HAVE REMOVED
THE PRECIP MENTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE...BUT BEGIN TO
DROP BACK SLIGHTLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. BETWEEN A BIT OF AN
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING UP THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE HAVE CONTINUED PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA...FOCUSED STILL ON THE
EAST. BY THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE SHIFTING EAST FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOUTH WINDS GUSTING 30
TO 40 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT WHILE VEERING TO SW. EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT TURBULENCE WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. CONDITIONS SHOUD STAY
MOSTLY VFR BUT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR AT ERI AROUND
THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU AND
POSSIBLY PRODUCES SOME SHRA.
OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR LIKELY SUN INTO SUN NIGHT THEN WIDESPREAD NON
VFR POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WANT TO HUG THE EAST COAST TODAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE GRADIENT WILL BE
QUITE STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP AND
AVERAGE 20 KNOTS BY MIDDAY. A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING...BRINGING WINDS
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST-NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL BE ABLE
TO REACH UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STILL
THINKING UNDER GALES WITH A STABLE MARINE LAYER. WINDS DECREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND COME AROUND TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVERHEAD TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-006>009-
017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001-002.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...ADAMS/OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
316 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)...
A PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE REGION. IT HAS BEEN A
COUPLE OF WEEK SINCE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN THIS FAR ABOVE NORMAL
AFTER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN EARLY TO
MID FEBRUARY. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS.
FURTHER TO THE NORTHER...A TROUGH IS MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW WELL
TO THE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE
EAST AND LOW TO THE NORTHWEST. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE NORTHERN PLATEAU BUT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE NEAR
SUNSET.
FOR TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION FROM SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL AND ONLY DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S. MOST OF THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE TONIGHT AND INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKING AT MODEL
SOUNDINGS...THERE IS SOME DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AND
EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT WITH NO MORE THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH EXPECTED. MODELS INDICATE THAT PW VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 1
INCH TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS INTO THE 90TH PERCENTILE
FOR MID-FEBRUARY. MUCH OF THE SAME WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED LIGHT
PRECIP. ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
50S AND LOW 60S DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD...ALOFT WE ARE UNDER A ZONAL
FLOW...WHILE AT THE SURFACE WE HAVE A WELL ESTABLISHED RETURN FLOW
THAT HAS BROUGHT GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. POPS WILL BE
INCREASING OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...AND TEMPORARILY DRIES OUT THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...BUT BY MONDAY NIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIP
WILL BE SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA...AND INTO TUESDAY.
EVEN AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES BY...A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES RACE
THROUGH THE AREA KEEPING POPS IN THE 40S TO 60S THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. FINALLY ON THURSDAY THE AREA SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY. BUT
AROUND FRIDAY COULD GET A CLOSE CALL FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE...SO
BUMPING UP POPS A BIT FOR FRIDAY...IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS.
MODELS STILL SHOWING THAT THE MAIN SYSTEM...LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WILL HAVE TOO MUCH WARM ADVECTION TO MOUNT MUCH OF A
WINTRY THREAT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 49 62 52 64 / 30 40 30 70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 47 61 50 62 / 40 30 30 80
OAK RIDGE, TN 47 60 50 62 / 40 30 30 80
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 40 57 47 59 / 30 20 30 80
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-MORGAN-
SCOTT TN.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
MA/GM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
334 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON HOW FAST THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY HOW WARM IT WILL BE TOMORROW.
THE CORE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES FOLLOWING THE BETTER PRESSURE RISES. 19.19Z RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOWS THE ENVIRONMENT DECOUPLING AROUND 00-01Z THIS EVENING WHICH
SHUTS DOWN THE WIND GUSTS. THINKING THAT THIS IS A BIT OPTIMISTIC
AND THAT THE GUSTS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT NOT BE IN THE
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD THIS
EVENING WHERE A DOWNGRADE TO AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...BUT WILL
LET THE EVENING SHIFT MONITOR CONDITIONS AND MAKE THAT DECISION.
CONSIDERED DROPPING IOWA/DANE COUNTIES FROM THE WARNING...BUT THE
HIGH SUSTAINED WINDS/GUSTS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE...SO WILL LET THEM STAY
IN THE WARNING FOR NOW.
HAVE GONE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC ON CLOUD COVER INTO THE EARLY
EVENING COMPARED TO THE SHORT TERM WRF GUIDANCE WHICH HAS MUCH OF
THE AREA CLEARED OUT BEFORE 00Z. THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS IS IN
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA/NORTHEAST IOWA AND SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE EARLY EVENING AS THE CLOSED LOW
QUICKLY PROPAGATES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
GOING INTO TOMORROW...IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
SUNNY WITH WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR MAKING IT BACK INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. SOME CLOUD COVER MAY MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH AS
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE STATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD TAG THE 50S IN THE SOUTHERN TWO
ROWS OF COUNTIES NEAR THE ILLINOIS BORDER.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITHIN NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN WI WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
OCCUR ACROSS SRN WI FOR SAT NT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
ON SUN BUT WITH MOST OF IT PASSING TO THE SOUTH THUS ONLY SMALL
CHANCES OF LGT SNOW/RAIN. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
FOR MON BUT DRY AND CLOUDY WX IS EXPECTED. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR MON AND MON NT. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EWD FOR TUE WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT. SWLY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BOOST
TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 40S. THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW
FOR TUE AFT INTO WED MORNING WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. POLAR
HIGH PRESSURE TO THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA LATER ON WED BUT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OUT OF THE NW FOR THU AND FRI.
THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH COOLING
TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING TONIGHT BUT
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY TRACKS TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS BEFORE CLEARING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO TOMORROW...BUT DEFINITELY
NOT AS HIGH AS THEY WERE TODAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR
THEN UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHEN SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH THAT THESE
CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT TO THE TAF SITES THOUGH.
&&
.MARINE...
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE NEARSHORE
WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHMENT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS MAY STAY AT GALE FORCE OR AT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR A PERIOD AFTER THE STORM FORCE WINDS
END...BUT IT WOULD LIKELY ONLY BE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OVERNIGHT.
WINDS STAY OUT OF THE WEST TOMORROW AND THEN COME AROUND TO THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ062>072.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ051-052-059-060.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ046-047-056>058.
LM...STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ644>646.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST SATURDAY FOR LMZ643.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...HALBACH
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GEHRING
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW STARTED OUT AS A
RAIN/SLEET MIX OVER NORTHERN WI LATE THIS MORNING...AND HAS SINCE
CHANGED TO SNOW OVER VILAS CO. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUES
SOUTH OF VILAS WITH A FEW SHOWERS HEADING INTO THE WESTERN FOX
VALLEY. SOUTH OF THE LOW...HAVE HAD A FEW GUSTS APPROACH AND
SURPASS WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA (45 MPH) OVER THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY
AND LAKESHORE AREAS. CENTRAL WI HAS REMAINED WELL BELOW CRITERIA SO
FAR. WITH COORDINATION FROM ARX...WILL CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY OVER
CENTRAL WI. EASTERN WI IS MORE PRONE TO THE HIGHER GUSTS SO WILL
LET THE ADVISORY RIDE FOR THIS AREA. WIND GUSTS AND PRECIP TRENDS
ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION. THOUGH PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE EXITED ALL BUT FAR
NORTHERN WI BY EARLY THIS EVENING...CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART.
MODELS SUGGEST SOME CLEARING TAKING PLACE OVER CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST
WI BY MID TO LATE EVENING. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN WI FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...PROLONGING THE BROKEN CLOUD COVER THERE...WHILE ALSO
PROVIDING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. WEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH FOR THE FIRST TWO HOURS OF THE
EVENING OVER EASTERN WI. THEN GUSTS SHOULD SETTLE IN THE 25 TO 30
MPH RANGE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE SOUTH AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...AND A SLIGHTLY COLDER AIRMASS DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS FAR NORTH-CENTRAL WI FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
OTHERWISE...THINKING SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA
BY MIDDAY. REMAINING MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S
SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER MOST OF NOAM AS A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES
ONSHORE AND AMPLIFIES.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR SUNDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGING TO MORE RAIN OR
MIXED RAN AND SNOW AS TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL...EAST CENTRAL
AND FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WARM ABOVE FREEZING. A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST...EXPECT GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL. TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE EXCEPTION AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE AREA...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PASSES.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN NORTH OF ROUTE 29 THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...BUT ANY SHOWERS WILL
HAVE POTENTIAL TO BRING DOWN STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE.
GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH UNLIKELY. MOST GUSTS
WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 KTS SOUTH OF ROUTE 29. MVFR CIGS WILL
FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING
BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE CIGS ARE LIKELY. MVFR CIGS TO RETURN
ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BY MID-EVENING.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ022-038>040-045-
048>050.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
310 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
CURRENTLY AS OF 21Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
U.S....BUT WITH A FEW IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH.
THE FIRST OF NOTE WAS OVER FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN...WHICH HAS
HELPED BRING THE STRONG WINDS...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION
TODAY. DESPITE 900MB WIND CORE OF 50-60 KT TRAVERSING ALL OF IOWA
INTO SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL...THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 58 MPH OR
HIGHER ENDED UP GOING RIGHT AROUND OUR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
925MB TEMPS COOLED QUITE A BIT TOO...DROPPING FROM 6-10C AT 12Z TO
2-6C NOW PER RAP ANALYSIS. SKIES CLEAR OUT FROM I-35 WESTWARD INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA...IN THE SUBSIDENCE AND STRONG DRYING BEHIND THE
TROUGH. THE NEXT POTENT LOOKING TROUGH WAS EVIDENT OVER NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW
CLOUDS...THOUGH THE WINDS ARE NOT AS STRONG AS THOSE THAT IMPACTED
THE AREA TODAY. A THIRD TROUGH WITH QUITE A BIT OF LIGHTNING WAS
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE TROUGH OVER NORTH DAKOTA LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF MN AND WI TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE CLOUD/PRECIPITATION IMPACT WITH
THIS TROUGH WILL STAY NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE POTENT NATURE
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELATIVELY TIGHT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. IN FACT THE RAP HAS A CORE OF 40-55 KT 925MB
WINDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. A STRENGTHENING
INVERSION BEHIND THE CURRENT TROUGH WILL HELP KEEP THESE STRONGER
WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN...BUT A 10-20 MPH BREEZE IS LIKELY TO
PERSIST. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH A 925MB TEMP WARM SURGE TO 6-12C
AT 06Z SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH A LOT OF THE
NIGHT. THE LOW TEMPERATURE MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL VERY LATE WHEN SFC-
925MB WINDS BEGIN TO SWITCH NORTHWEST...CAUSING 925MB TEMPS TO FALL
TO 2-7C AT 12Z.
ON SATURDAY A WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE INCOMING PACIFIC
TROUGH LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM
THIS SHORTWAVE IS TO CONTINUE FEEDING COOLER 925MB AIR INTO THE
REGION...DROPPING 1-2C THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALSO
HELP TO BRING SOME LOWER CLOUDS SOUTH INTO LOCATIONS NORTHEAST OF I-
94. MORE SUN OVERALL MAY HELP TO OFFSET SOME OF THE COOLING...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S...WARMEST SOUTH OF I-90 DUE TO
DISSIPATING SNOWPACK AND WARMEST 925MB TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
HIGHLIGHTS OF INTEREST...
CURRENT PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH MODELS PROG TO SWING MOST OF IT
WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...TRACKING FROM NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHERN IL.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A WEAK FRONTOGENESIS BAND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE TRACK THAT APPEARS TO MARCH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE 19.12Z GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WITH IT...HOWEVER...THE 19.12Z ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE DRY.
MUCH OF THE DIFFERENCE IS DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE BAND. GIVEN THE
TROUGH JUST COMING ONSHORE NOW...FEEL ITS PRUDENT TO MAINTAIN SOME
LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION LATE TUESDAY. MUCH OF THE GULF MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED
WITH A SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE SOUTHERN U.S. UP THE EAST
COAST...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE MIGHT STILL BE LINGERING TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. UNDERSCORE MIGHT AS THE 19.12Z ECMWF REALLY BACKED OFF ON
PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO ITS PREVIOUS RUN.
OTHERWISE...
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON A GRADUAL COOL DOWN THROUGH THE
PERIOD...DUE TO A SWITCH TO A MORE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH A
BRIEF WARM UP ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE REGION. ASSUMING A LOT OF THE FORECAST AREA
LOSES THE SNOWPACK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE RELATIVELY HIGHER
LATE FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE SHOULD HELP COUNTERACT SOME OF THIS COOLER
AIR. THE BIGGEST IMPACT COULD BE ON LOWS WITH THE LACK OF SNOW COVER
REDUCING RADIATIONAL COOLING. APPEARS THE COOL DOWN WILL BE BRIEF
WITH INDICATIONS IN DAYS 8-10 OF THE 19.12Z ECMWF AND CFS RUN FROM
THE 18TH FOR TEMPERATURES TO HEAD BACK ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING. ALSO...A
BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN AND IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS
LATE. IF WINDS DECOUPLE TONIGHT WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR...WITH WINDS HOVERING AROUND 46 KTS AT 1KFT THROUGH
10Z.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
SNOW PACK TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 10. PERSISTENT BREEZY WINDS
WITH DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES STAYING ABOVE FREEZING INTO
SATURDAY EVENING WILL CONTINUE MELTING THE SNOW. WITH 1-2 INCH
WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE REMAINING SNOW PACK...COMBINED WITH A
MAINLY FROZEN GROUND...EXPECT RISES ON MANY RIVERS. RIGHT
NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RISES WILL OCCUR ALONG
THE KICKAPOO RIVER...ALTHOUGH WATER LEVELS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. ICE JAMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON
RIVERS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN RISES NEAR FLOOD STAGE.
AFTER SATURDAY EVENING SNOW PACK MELTING LOOKS TO SLOW AS
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY AND FALL BACK
BELOW FREEZING DURING THE NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...LITTLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING IT
FROM ENHANCING THE FLOOD THREAT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ032>034-041>044-
053>055-061.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-
029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1137 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
.UPDATE...TODAY
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
HAVE UPGRADED ALL OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND GRANT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN TO A HIGH WIND WARNING. SEEING SEVERAL REPORTS OF 35 TO
40 SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN IOWA. ALSO...THERE HAS BEEN REPORTS OF 50 KTS
GUSTS AT WEBSTER CITY AND DUBUQUE. AS MIXING INCREASES THIS
MORNING WE SHOULD SEE THESE STRONGER WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA
AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE REST OF THE WIND ADVISORIES
ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
ALL EYES ON TODAY/S WIND EVENT. 19.09Z ANALYSIS SHOWS A 988 HPA
SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL SD WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 7 TO 8 HPA
THREE HOUR PRESSURE RISE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE
WHERE SURFACE GUSTS FROM 50 TO 60 KTS ARE OCCURRING. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS SURFACE LOW MOVING DUE EAST INTO
CENTRAL MN THROUGH 12Z AND THEN TAKING A SLIGHT JOG TO THE
NORTHEAST...MOVING INTO NORTHERN WI BY 18Z. AS A RESULT...BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO THE WEST
AND INCREASE RAPIDLY AFTER PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GFS/
ECMWF 0-1 KM WINDS INCREASE FROM 45 TO 50 KTS BY MID-LATE MORNING
WHILE THE NAM/RAP ARE A BIT STRONGER FROM 50 TO 55 KTS. IMPRESSIVE
DARKENING ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND STRONG DIVERGENT Q-VECTOR
SIGNAL SUGGEST MUCH OF THIS FLOW WILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE
SURFACE.
STILL SOME CONCERN ABOUT THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER TODAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT HANDLING THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE WELL DUE
TO SNOW COVER...THUS IMPACTING THEIR DEPICTION OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S. MODIFYING THE 19.08Z RAP SOUNDING AT 18Z FOR
KRST TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE HIGHER TEMPERATURES SHOWS A MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER TO NEARLY 850 HPA WHERE WINDS ARE NEAR 60 KTS. IF
THE MIXED LAYER CAN TAP INTO THESE STRONGER WINDS...SURFACE GUSTS
AT OR ABOVE WARNING CRITERIA (58 MPH) ARE STILL POSSIBLE WEST OF
THE MS RIVER. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS IF CLEARING
MATERIALIZES AROUND PEAK HEATING OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HELP
TRANSPORT HIGHER MOMENTUM FLOW TO THE SURFACE. ALL SAID...
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO HOIST A HIGH WIND WARNING AT
THIS TIME...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH VERY CAREFULLY OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE. EITHER WAY...A VERY WINDY
DAY ON TAP.
STRONGEST WINDS ARE A BIT SLOWER TO ARRIVE THIS MORNING...SO
DELAYED START OF WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 15Z FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA MINUS TAYLOR COUNTY. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE BETWEEN 15
AND 18Z...PEAKING AROUND THE NOON HOUR AND THEN SLOWLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL INVERSION AFTER
SUNSET SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO RAPIDLY FALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
AFTER 00Z. INCREASED GUSTS FROM 40 TO 55 MPH WEST OF THE MS RIVER
AND 35 TO 50 MPH TO THE EAST. SEE LATEST ADVISORY FOR MORE
DETAILS.
CONCERNING PRECIPITATION TODAY...LATEST RAP/HRRR ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT....MOVING THE LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY ACROSS SD MAINLY
NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR. STILL SEEING A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR
TWO...SO WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE DUE TO MELTING SNOW...SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AREAS FARTHER
SOUTH ARE TOO DRY TO GET MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES.
TONIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
STAYING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL WITH NO MAJOR
STORMS ON THE HORIZON. THE NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE
SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS A COUPLE WEAK SHORT-WAVES DROP
SOUTH FROM CANADA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MOST PRECIP THAT
DEVELOPS SHOULD BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE FOR
AREAS THAT DROP BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER MILD WITH MOST AREAS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.
NIGHTTIME LOWS DROP BACK INTO THE 20S SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. WITH WARM TEMPERATURES...RISES ON
RIVERS ARE EXPECTED AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS. SEE
HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING. ALSO...A
BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN AND IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS
LATE. IF WINDS DECOUPLE TONIGHT WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR...WITH WINDS HOVERING AROUND 46 KTS AT 1KFT THROUGH
10Z.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2016
LOOKING INTO SNOW MELT OF THE 1-2 INCH WATER EQUIVALENT SNOW PACK
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BRING RISES TO MANY RIVERS. RIGHT
NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RISES WILL OCCUR ALONG
THE KICKAPOO RIVER...ALTHOUGH WATER LEVELS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
OVERALL...EXPECT POSSIBLE ICE JAMS ON RIVERS AND RISES TO NEAR
FLOOD STAGE IN SOME BASINS. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION FROM WEATHER
SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR ENHANCING THE FLOOD THREAT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ061.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ029-032>034-
041>044-053>055.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
IA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>011-018-
019-029-030.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP