Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 02/16/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
904 PM MST MON FEB 15 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 PM MST MON FEB 15 2016
INCREASED POPS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH INCOMING SHOWERS. MOST
WILL STAY RAIN...WITH ONLY A FEW SNOWFLAKES TO POSSIBLY MIX IN
LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL..NOT HEAVY RAIN OR SNOW PRODUCERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM MST MON FEB 15 2016
FOCUS AT THIS TIME IS ON THE 160KT SPEED MAXIMA OVER NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE STRONG WLY SFC WINDS ACRS SRN WYOMING. THE GJT-DEN
AND EGE-DEN 1500 METER PRES GRADIENTS REMAIN QUITE HIGH AT THIS
HOUR...IN RESPONSE TO A SHARP SFC TROUGH ALONG THE BASE OF THE
FOOTHILLS. NAM AND RAP CROSS SECTIONS SHOW CROSS BARRIER WIND
SPEEDS PEAK OVER THE EAST FACE OF THE FRONT RANGE NOW THROUGH
00Z/TUE. THE SANGSTER WIND GUI EMPLOYING DATA FROM THESE MODELS
INDICATES WARNING CRITERIA THRU 00Z/TUE. WHEREAS WRF DATA HANGS
ONTO WARNING CRITERIA WINDS TIL 03Z THIS EVENING WITH A STEEP 12MB
GJT-DEN PRES GRADIENT. WRF CROSS SECTIONS ALSO SHOW THE BULLSEYE
OF STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE UPPER EAST SLOPE OF THE FRONT RANGE
SHIFTING TO LOWER AREAS BETWEEN 00Z-03Z THIS EVENING WITH
AMPLIFICATION OF THE MTN WAVE. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE JET MAXIMA CLIPPING FAR NERN
COLORADO ABOUT THE SAME TIME. AFTER ITS PASSAGE MODELS SHOW A FEW
HOURS OF WEAK ASCENT AND POCKETS OF LIGHT QPF DOTTING THE NERN
CORNER OF THE STATE. LATE TONIGHT MODELS SHOW A SURGE OF COLDER
AIR BACKING IN TO THE NE CORNER OF THE STATE THEN RETREATING TUE
MORNING. COULD POSSIBLY SEE A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND REACHING THE
FRONT RANGE BY AROUND 09Z...AND POSSIBLY SOME LOW CLOUDS FARTHER
OUT ON THE PLAINS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY...LOW /MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FEEDING DOWN FROM
WYOMING TOGETHER WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE MOSTLY LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
MTNS. WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL STABILITY AND DRYING THIS
EVENING...SHOULD SEE SNOWFALL/ACCUMULATION RATES DROPPING OFF.
BUT STG W-NWLY MTN TOP WINDS...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING ESPLY ON THE HIGHER
PASSES AND ABOVE TIMBERLINE.
CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS - WILL HOLD ONTO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FOR THE MTN ZONES 31..33 AND 34 UNTIL
MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS ANYWHERE FROM 2-5
INCHES WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-70.
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR THE
FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS ZONE 35-36...AND THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS IN
LARIMER AND NWRN WELD COUNTIES. PEAK GUSTS TO AROUND 65KTS IN THE
FTHLS AND 50KTS ON THE NEARBY PLAINS NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER STILL
LOOK LIKELY.
TUESDAY...LOOKS DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER AND WITH LESS
WIND...BUT STILL GUSTY AT TIMES MTNS AND PLAINS. MOISTURE PLUME
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS PAST 48 HOURS WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE...PUTTING AND END TO MOST ON THE SNOWFALL
IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. HIGH TEMPS ON THE PLAINS TOMORROW SOME 15-20
DEG F ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGH COUNTRY SHOULD SEE WARMING AS WELL WITH
MUCH LESS CLOUD COVER...BUT STILL WINDY ESPLY RIDGETOPS AND EAST
SLOPES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM MST MON FEB 15 2016
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND THEN BE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THURSDAY AHEAD OF A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID
70S THURSDAY. A FEW RECORDS MAY BE BROKEN IF TEMPERATURES HIT THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. A STRONG FAST MOVING TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
COLORADO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE WINDY
CONDITIONS... ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION AIDS IN MIXING. STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
PLACES AS 700 MB WINDS OF 40 TO 60 KNOTS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
LATE IN THE DAY. THIS TROUGH SHOULD ALSO BRING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS. DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL KEEP THE FOOTHILLS
AND PLAINS DRY.
BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE
STATE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE MOUNTAINS AND WINDS
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE. DRY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
FRIDAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. THE
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AS A WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES.
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO TURN NORTHWESTERLY
DUE TO A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH DIVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. MAY BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LIFT TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO NEAR NORMAL UNDER THIS PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 904 PM MST MON FEB 15 2016
WINDSPEEDS REMAINING ELEVATED SLIGHTLY LONGER THAN FORECAST THIS
EVENING. WNW WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY BUT NOT MAKE THE MORE
WSW DIRECTION EXPECTED BEFORE. NOW EXPECT THE WINDS TO REMAIN WNW
BEFORE THE EXPECTED EASTERLY PUSH LATER THIS EVENING BETWEEN 07-09Z
TONIGHT. DO NOT SEE ANY CLOUD OR FOG WITH THIS WEAK SURGE OF
COOLER AIR...AT LEAST NOT IN THE DENVER AREA. SHOULD THEN SEE THE
SURGE RETREAT TO THE EAST TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP
AGAIN ON TUESDAY AROUND 18Z...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AT
KAPA AND KDEN. AT KBJC...GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS COLORADO IN A
MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ035-036-038.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ031-
033-034.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
646 PM MST MON FEB 15 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 PM MST MON FEB 15 2016
INCREASED POPS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH INCOMING SHOWERS. MOST
WILL STAY RAIN...WITH ONLY A FEW SNOWFLAKES TO POSSIBLY MIX IN
LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL..NOT HEAVY RAIN OR SNOW PRODUCERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM MST MON FEB 15 2016
FOCUS AT THIS TIME IS ON THE 160KT SPEED MAXIMA OVER NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE STRONG WLY SFC WINDS ACRS SRN WYOMING. THE GJT-DEN
AND EGE-DEN 1500 METER PRES GRADIENTS REMAIN QUITE HIGH AT THIS
HOUR...IN RESPONSE TO A SHARP SFC TROUGH ALONG THE BASE OF THE
FOOTHILLS. NAM AND RAP CROSS SECTIONS SHOW CROSS BARRIER WIND
SPEEDS PEAK OVER THE EAST FACE OF THE FRONT RANGE NOW THROUGH
00Z/TUE. THE SANGSTER WIND GUI EMPLOYING DATA FROM THESE MODELS
INDICATES WARNING CRITERIA THRU 00Z/TUE. WHEREAS WRF DATA HANGS
ONTO WARNING CRITERIA WINDS TIL 03Z THIS EVENING WITH A STEEP 12MB
GJT-DEN PRES GRADIENT. WRF CROSS SECTIONS ALSO SHOW THE BULLSEYE
OF STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE UPPER EAST SLOPE OF THE FRONT RANGE
SHIFTING TO LOWER AREAS BETWEEN 00Z-03Z THIS EVENING WITH
AMPLIFICATION OF THE MTN WAVE. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE JET MAXIMA CLIPPING FAR NERN
COLORADO ABOUT THE SAME TIME. AFTER ITS PASSAGE MODELS SHOW A FEW
HOURS OF WEAK ASCENT AND POCKETS OF LIGHT QPF DOTTING THE NERN
CORNER OF THE STATE. LATE TONIGHT MODELS SHOW A COLDS OF COLDER
AIR BACKING IN THE THE CORNER OF THE STATE THEN RETREATING TUE
MORNING. COULD POSSIBLY SEE A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND REACHING THE
FRONT BY AROUND 09Z...AND POSSIBLY SOME LOW CLOUDS FARTHER OUT ON
THE PLAINS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY...LOW /MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FEEDING DOWN FROM
WYOMING TOGETHER WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE MOSTLY LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
MTNS. WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL STABILITY AND DRYING THIS
EVENING...SHOULD SEE SNOWFALL/ACCUMULATION RATES DROPPING OFF.
BUT STG W-NWLY MTN TOP WINDS...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING ESPLY ON THE HIGHER
PASSES AND ABOVE TIMBERLINE.
CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS - WILL HOLD ONTO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FOR THE MTN ZONES 31..33 AND 34 UNTIL
MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS ANYWHERE FROM 2-5
INCHES WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-70.
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR THE
FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS ZONE 35-36...AND THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS IN
LARIMER AND NWRN WELD COUNTIES. PEAK GUSTS TO AROUND 65KTS IN THE
FTHLS AND 50KTS ON THE NEARBY PLAINS NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER STILL
LOOK LIKELY.
TUESDAY...LOOKS DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER AND WITH LESS
WIND...BUT STILL GUSTY AT TIMES MTNS AND PLAINS. MOISTURE PLUME
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS PAST 48 HOURS WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE...PUTTING AND END TO MOST ON THE SNOWFALL
IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. HIGH TEMPS ON THE PLAINS TOMORROW SOME 15-20
DEG F ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGH COUNTRY SHOULD SEE WARMING AS WELL WITH
MUCH LESS CLOUD COVER...BUT STILL WINDY ESPLY RIDGETOPS AND EAST
SLOPES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM MST MON FEB 15 2016
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND THEN BE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THURSDAY AHEAD OF A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID
70S THURSDAY. A FEW RECORDS MAY BE BROKEN IF TEMPERATURES HIT THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. A STRONG FAST MOVING TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
COLORADO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE WINDY
CONDITIONS... ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION AIDS IN MIXING. STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
PLACES AS 700 MB WINDS OF 40 TO 60 KNOTS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
LATE IN THE DAY. THIS TROUGH SHOULD ALSO BRING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS. DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL KEEP THE FOOTHILLS
AND PLAINS DRY.
BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE
STATE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE MOUNTAINS AND WINDS
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE. DRY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
FRIDAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. THE
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AS A WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES.
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO TURN NORTHWESTERLY
DUE TO A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH DIVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. MAY BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LIFT TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO NEAR NORMAL UNDER THIS PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 400 PM MST MON FEB 15 2016
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH 01Z TODAY AND
THEN AGAIN STARTING AROUND 18Z TUESDAY. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE
AROUND 300 DEGREES AT KDEN AND KAPA WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. AT
BJC...GUSTS TO AROUND 55 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z.
WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER
COULD SEE A WEAK PUSH OF EASTERLY WINDS BANK UP AGAINST THE
FOOTHILLS AROUND 09Z TONIGHT. DO NOT SEE ANY CLOUD OR FOG WITH
THIS WEAK SURGE OF COOLER AIR...AT LEAST NOT IN THE DENVER AREA.
SHOULD THEN SEE THE SURGE RETREAT TO THE EAST TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL PICK UP AGAIN ON TUESDAY AROUND 18Z...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
25 KNOTS AT KAPA AND KDEN. AT KBJC...GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KNOTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS COLORADO
IN A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ035-036-038.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ031-
033-034.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...MEIER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
411 PM MST MON FEB 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM MST MON FEB 15 2016
FOCUS AT THIS TIME IS ON THE 160KT SPEED MAXIMA OVER NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE STRONG WLY SFC WINDS ACRS SRN WYOMING. THE GJT-DEN
AND EGE-DEN 1500 METER PRES GRADIENTS REMAIN QUITE HIGH AT THIS
HOUR...IN RESPONSE TO A SHARP SFC TROUGH ALONG THE BASE OF THE
FOOTHILLS. NAM AND RAP CROSS SECTIONS SHOW CROSS BARRIER WIND
SPEEDS PEAK OVER THE EAST FACE OF THE FRONT RANGE NOW THROUGH
00Z/TUE. THE SANGSTER WIND GUI EMPLOYING DATA FROM THESE MODELS
INDICATES WARNING CRITERIA THRU 00Z/TUE. WHEREAS WRF DATA HANGS
ONTO WARNING CRITERIA WINDS TIL 03Z THIS EVENING WITH A STEEP 12MB
GJT-DEN PRES GRADIENT. WRF CROSS SECTIONS ALSO SHOW THE BULLSEYE
OF STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE UPPER EAST SLOPE OF THE FRONT RANGE
SHIFTING TO LOWER AREAS BETWEEN 00Z-03Z THIS EVENING WITH
AMPLIFICATION OF THE MTN WAVE. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE JET MAXIMA CLIPPING FAR NERN
COLORADO ABOUT THE SAME TIME. AFTER ITS PASSAGE MODELS SHOW A FEW
HOURS OF WEAK ASCENT AND POCKETS OF LIGHT QPF DOTTING THE NERN
CORNER OF THE STATE. LATE TONIGHT MODELS SHOW A COLDS OF COLDER
AIR BACKING IN THE THE CORNER OF THE STATE THEN RETREATING TUE
MORNING. COULD POSSIBLY SEE A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND REACHING THE
FRONT BY AROUND 09Z...AND POSSIBLY SOME LOW CLOUDS FARTHER OUT ON
THE PLAINS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY...LOW /MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FEEDING DOWN FROM
WYOMING TOGETHER WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE MOSTLY LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
MTNS. WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL STABILITY AND DRYING THIS
EVENING...SHOULD SEE SNOWFALL/ACCUMULATION RATES DROPPING OFF.
BUT STG W-NWLY MTN TOP WINDS...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING ESPLY ON THE HIGHER
PASSES AND ABOVE TIMBERLINE.
CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS - WILL HOLD ONTO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FOR THE MTN ZONES 31..33 AND 34 UNTIL
MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS ANYWHERE FROM 2-5
INCHES WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-70.
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR THE
FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS ZONE 35-36...AND THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS IN
LARIMER AND NWRN WELD COUNTIES. PEAK GUSTS TO AROUND 65KTS IN THE
FTHLS AND 50KTS ON THE NEARBY PLAINS NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER STILL
LOOK LIKELY.
TUESDAY...LOOKS DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER AND WITH LESS
WIND...BUT STILL GUSTY AT TIMES MTNS AND PLAINS. MOISTURE PLUME
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS PAST 48 HOURS WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE...PUTTING AND END TO MOST ON THE SNOWFALL
IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. HIGH TEMPS ON THE PLAINS TOMORROW SOME 15-20
DEG F ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGH COUNTRY SHOULD SEE WARMING AS WELL WITH
MUCH LESS CLOUD COVER...BUT STILL WINDY ESPLY RIDGETOPS AND EAST
SLOPES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM MST MON FEB 15 2016
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND THEN BE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THURSDAY AHEAD OF A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID
70S THURSDAY. A FEW RECORDS MAY BE BROKEN IF TEMPERATURES HIT THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. A STRONG FAST MOVING TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
COLORADO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE WINDY
CONDITIONS... ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION AIDS IN MIXING. STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
PLACES AS 700 MB WINDS OF 40 TO 60 KNOTS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
LATE IN THE DAY. THIS TROUGH SHOULD ALSO BRING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS. DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL KEEP THE FOOTHILLS
AND PLAINS DRY.
BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE
STATE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE MOUNTAINS AND WINDS
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE. DRY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
FRIDAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. THE
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AS A WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES.
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO TURN NORTHWESTERLY
DUE TO A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH DIVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. MAY BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LIFT TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO NEAR NORMAL UNDER THIS PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 400 PM MST MON FEB 15 2016
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH 01Z TODAY AND
THEN AGAIN STARTING AROUND 18Z TUESDAY. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE
AROUND 300 DEGREES AT KDEN AND KAPA WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. AT
BJC...GUSTS TO AROUND 55 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z.
WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER
COULD SEE A WEAK PUSH OF EASTERLY WINDS BANK UP AGAINST THE
FOOTHILLS AROUND 09Z TONIGHT. DO NOT SEE ANY CLOUD OR FOG WITH
THIS WEAK SURGE OF COOLER AIR...AT LEAST NOT IN THE DENVER AREA.
SHOULD THEN SEE THE SURGE RETREAT TO THE EAST TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL PICK UP AGAIN ON TUESDAY AROUND 18Z...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
25 KNOTS AT KAPA AND KDEN. AT KBJC...GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KNOTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS COLORADO
IN A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ035-036-038.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ031-
033-034.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...MEIER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
307 PM MST SUN FEB 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM MST SUN FEB 14 2016
A FAST MOVING SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING ITS GREATEST IMPACTS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THE DYNAMICAL PORTION OF THE STORM
IS DRIVEN BY A N-S ORIENTED 110KT JET STREAK. THIS JET SHIFTED
INTO NW CO AROUND MIDDAY AND WILL BE EAST OF THE DIVIDE THIS
EVENING. DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH REGION IS NEAR SATURATION
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AT AROUND 600MB/14KFT. ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE JET NOSE...SNOW SPREAD INTO NW COLORADO JUST BEFORE NOON AND
INTO THE ROARING FORK VALLEY AROUND 1PM. THE I-70 CORRIDOR FROM
GLENWOOD EAST COULD GET SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION THIS AFTERNOON.
BEFORE MIDNIGHT THE DYNAMICAL PORTION OF THE STORM IS OVER AND IT
BECOMES AN WNW OROGRAPHIC EVENT. THIS IS STILL OPTIMAL FOR THE
PARK RANGE AND STEAMBOAT SPRINGS AREA. CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS
EMPHASIZE THE BEST SNOW FROM STEAMBOAT NORTHWARD AND THIS STILL
LOOKS CORRECT. THE PARK RANGE TO VAIL PASS AND THE FLAT TOPS AND
ADJOINING VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL
PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. AREAS OF LATE NIGHT FOG WILL
LIKELY FORM IN NW COLORADO...EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR...AND ROARING FORK VALLEY.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BY WAY OF THE JET STREAM WILL HAVE SHIFTED
WELL TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY MORNING WHICH SHOULD CAUSE SNOWFALL UP
NORTH TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY. ACCORDING TO THE NAM AND GFS...SNOW
IS NOT OVER THOUGH AS FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS THEN KICK IN ALLOWING
SNOW TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF MONDAY ESPECIALLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS
AND FLAT TOPS. HOWEVER...THE VERY SHORT RANGE MODELS...TO INCLUDE
THE HRRR AND RAP13...SHOW PRECIP DWINDLING THROUGH THE DAY WITH
ONLY MINIMAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. WITH H7 WINDS COMING FROM THE
NORTHWEST...OROGRAPHICS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE IN PLAY SO THE
GOING ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. LATER SHIFTS CAN REASSESS
AND PULL DOWN EARLY IF NEEDED.
THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE WARMING TEMPS MONDAY WITH MANY AREAS
SEEING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AREAS DOWN SOUTH WILL LIKELY SEE MORE
SUN THAN CLOUDS WHILE MTNS WILL SEE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM MST SUN FEB 14 2016
BY NOON TUESDAY...SNOWFALL WILL HAVE ENDED AS HEIGHT RISES
INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
CONTROL FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING OVERHEAD FROM TIME TO TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THEIR WARM TREND FOR A NICE START TO THE WORK WEEK.
STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND EC HIGHLIGHT AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE WEST COAST BRINGING PLENTY OF PRECIP
TO NRN CALIF UP INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. HOWEVER...THE CLOSED LOW
FILLS IN AND MOVES NORTH WHILE THE ASSOD TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
EASTWARD. THERE IS SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS FEATURE AS
THE JET STREAM CARRIES THIS WAVE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS
THE WAVE MOVES EAST...THE JET BECOMES MORE EAST TO WEST ORIENTED
WHICH WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE AREA. MODELS
SUGGEST INCREASED CLOUDS THURSDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP LOOKS TO FALL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AGAIN FAVORING THE NRN AND CENTRAL
MTNS...FLAT TOPS...AND POSSIBLY THE GRAND MESA. BECAUSE OF THE JET
ORIENTATION THOUGH...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH A QUICK 6 HRS OF HEAVIER
PRECIP BEFORE IT SHUTS OFF ABRUPTLY BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. A FEW MORE
MODEL RUNS WILL INCREASE CONFIDENCE WITH EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM.
AFTER THAT...A WEAK WAVE LOOKS TO MOVE OVER THE CWA SATURDAY
BRINGING VERY LIGHT PRECIP TO THE AREA BEFORE IT QUICKLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD.
EXPECT A NICE START TO THE WORK WEEK BEFORE MORE PRECIP ENTERS
THE PICTURE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WHICH WILL BE NICE FRO MID-FEBRUARY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MID DAY)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016
SNOW WILL INCREASE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE CO I-70 CORRIDOR THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. AFT 21Z MOUNTAIN TOPS ACROSS NW COLORADO WILL
BECOME OBSCURED AT TIMES. KEGE KASE WILL HAVE PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH CIGS 030-050 AND VSBY 3-5SM IN SNOW. STRONG NW
WINDS AT AND ABOVE MTN TOP LEVEL WILL KEEP TURBULENCE ELEVATED
WITH POSSIBILITY OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. AFT 12Z SNOW WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE MTNS ALONG AND NORTH OF VAIL PASS INTO WYOMING.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ004-005-013.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ010.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JOE/TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
956 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016
W/NWLY SFC WINDS HAVE BEEN QUITE STRONG ABOVE TIMBERLINE THIS
MORNING WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS UPWARDS OF 70 MPH. HIGH MTN CAMS
INDICATED CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW MAINLY ABOVE TIMBERLINE.
HOWEVER IN THE PAST HOURS...THESE SAME WIND SENSORS HAVE SHOWN A
DROP OFF IN WIND SPEEDS. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH MODEL GUIDANCE AS
IT INDICATES A REDUCTION IN MTN TOP FLOW DURING THE NEXT 2-4 HRS...
THEN A STEADY INCREASE AS THE NOSE OF A 120-130KT JET PASSES OVER
NRN COLORADO. AS FOR THE SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...
SLOW GOING NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN A STEADY INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AS 700-500MB QUASI-GEOSTROPHIC ASCENT INCREASING AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MODELS
SHOW SWEEPING ACROSS N-CNTRL/NERN COLORADO LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THE CONVEYOR PACIFIC MOISTURE UPSTREAM OF NWRN COLORADO DOES NOT
LOOK TERRIBLY DEEP...BUT COMBO OF LARGE SCALE LIFT AND OROGRAPHIC
FORCING SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE GENERATING THE SNOW AMOUNTS
INDICATED IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE NRN MTN
ZONES 31..33-34 STARTING AT 19Z TODAY. STG WINDS...BITTER COLD
WIND CHILLS AND CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW MAY POSE MORE OF A
PROBLEM FOR MTN RESIDENTS AND HIGH COUNTRY TRAVELERS ESPLY THOSE
CROSSING THE HIGH PASSES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...WESTERLY WINDS IN THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE GUSTS IN THE
45-55 MPH RANGE. NEARBY PLAINS ALREADY SEEING THESE GUSTY WLY
WINDS WITH THE STNRY MTN WAVE HELPING TO MIX DOWN STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT. SHOULD SEE THE STRONGER GUSTY WLY WINDS FIRST WITHIN THE
I-25 CORRIDOR AND THEN OUT ACROSS THE NERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION...MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW CLOUD BASES LOWERING OVER
THE NERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH PASSAGE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVE.
ITS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS OUT THERE...BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT LIKELY AS THE SUB-
CLOUD LAYER APPEARS QUITE DRY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016
RATHER STG WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER NRN CO THRU TONIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE MTNS BY MIDDAY WITH BETTER
LAPSE RATES BY AFTN. THUS SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SNOW BY
AFTN WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-70. AFTER MIDNIGHT MOISTURE WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT
HOWEVER WILL STILL SEE PERIODS OF LIGHTER OROGRAPHIC SNOW IN MOST
MTN AREAS. MEANWHILE GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
ABV 10000 FT. WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR MTN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-70 THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT. PORTIONS OF ZN 31 COULD GET CLOSE
TO WARNING CRITERIA IF LATEST HRRR IS CORRECT.
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS A PACIFIC FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS AFTN WITH
GUSTY NWLY WINDS DEVELOPING FM THE FOOTHILLS ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH
STG DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IN PLACE PCPN POTENTIAL OVER NERN CO LOOKS
TO BE RATHER LOW HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME MID LVL QG ASCENT
LATER THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS SO WILL KEEP IN A
SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS. AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL BE COOLER THIS
AFTN WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS NERN CO.
AS FOR HIGH WIND THREAT OVERALL THERE IS NEVER REALLY MUCH OF A MTN
WAVE FOR ANY EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME TODAY OR TONIGHT. THUS DON`T
EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW
BRIEF HIGHER GUSTS IN THE NORMAL WINDY AREAS IN AND NR THE
FOOTHILLS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016
MODELS HAVE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. JET LEVEL SPEEDS ARE 80 TO 110
KNOTS ALL FOUR PERIODS. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS HAVE WEAK
DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY FOR THE CWA ALL FOUR PERIODS. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY DOWNSLOPING THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS SOME PROGGED OVER THE HIGH
MOUNTAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEN IT DECREASES. THERE IS
SOME OVER THE PLAINS...MOSTLY IN THE UPPER AND MID LEVELS MONDAY.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ARE PRETTY DRY IN ALL AREAS. THE QPF
FIELDS SHOWS LIMITED SNOWFALL IN THE HIGH MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. FOR POPS...NOTHING FOR THE PLAINS...TO DRY AND
DOWNSLOPING. FOR THE MOUNTAINS...THERE IS SOME MOISTURE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS HELP WITH OROGRAPHICS...HOWEVER...
MOISTURE DECREASES SLOWLY THROUGH THOSE TWO PERIODS...THERE IS
SLIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND NO HELP FROM SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT.
CURRENT GFE GRIDS HAVE 50-80% POPS IN THE HIGH MOUNTAINS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...THIS LOOK REASONABLE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
HIGHEST IN ZONE 31...BUT HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA AMOUNTS ARE UNLIKELY.
FOR TEMPERATURES...MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-3 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S.
TUESDAY HIGHS ARE 1-2 C WARMER THAN MONDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS
...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH THEN PUSHES
THROUGH BY FRIDAY MORNING. FLAT UPPER RIDGE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. ZONAL FLOW IS PROGGED DON SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
ENERGY AND MOISTURE FOR LIMITED MOUNTAIN POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
ALL FOUR DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 955 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016
WESTERLY WINDS HAVE FINALLY TAKEN HOLD OF THE DENVER METRO AREA
WITH THE MTN WAVE AND LEE TROUGH MOVING OFF AND AWAY FROM THE
FRONT RANGE. CANNOT DISCOUNT OCCASIONAL S-SELY WINDS AT KAPA AND
KDEN NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BUT PREVAILING WIND SHOULD BE W-NWLY.
CLOSE TO THE FOOTHILLS...WINDS AT KBJC SHOULD STAY W-NWLY REST OF
THE DAY AND AT TIMES QUITE STRONG WITH PEAK GUSTS POTENTIALLY TO
AROUND 40KTS. WIND SPEEDS NOT LIKELY TO BE AS STRONG AT KDEN AND
KAPA BUT GUSTS TO 30 KTS OR SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS
AFTERNOON. NO PRECIP TODAY AND CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FEET
AGL.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ031-033.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
346 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016
RATHER STG WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER NRN CO THRU TONIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE MTNS BY MIDDAY WITH BETTER
LAPSE RATES BY AFTN. THUS SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SNOW BY
AFTN WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-70. AFTER MIDNIGHT MOISTURE WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT
HOWEVER WILL STILL SEE PERIODS OF LIGHTER OROGRAPHIC SNOW IN MOST
MTN AREAS. MEANWHILE GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
ABV 10000 FT. WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR MTN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-70 THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT. PORTIONS OF ZN 31 COULD GET CLOSE
TO WARNING CRITERIA IF LATEST HRRR IS CORRECT.
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS A PACIFIC FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS AFTN WITH
GUSTY NWLY WINDS DEVELOPING FM THE FOOTHILLS ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH
STG DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IN PLACE PCPN POTENTIAL OVER NERN CO LOOKS
TO BE RATHER LOW HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME MID LVL QG ASCENT
LATER THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS SO WILL KEEP IN A
SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS. AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL BE COOLER THIS
AFTN WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS NERN CO.
AS FOR HIGH WIND THREAT OVERALL THERE IS NEVER REALLY MUCH OF A MTN
WAVE FOR ANY EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME TODAY OR TONIGHT. THUS DON`T
EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW
BRIEF HIGHER GUSTS IN THE NORMAL WINDY AREAS IN AND NR THE
FOOTHILLS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016
MODELS HAVE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. JET LEVEL SPEEDS ARE 80 TO 110
KNOTS ALL FOUR PERIODS. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS HAVE WEAK
DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY FOR THE CWA ALL FOUR PERIODS. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY DOWNSLOPING THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS SOME PROGGED OVER THE HIGH
MOUNTAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEN IT DECREASES. THERE IS
SOME OVER THE PLAINS...MOSTLY IN THE UPPER AND MID LEVELS MONDAY.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ARE PRETTY DRY IN ALL AREAS. THE QPF
FIELDS SHOWS LIMITED SNOWFALL IN THE HIGH MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. FOR POPS...NOTHING FOR THE PLAINS...TO DRY AND
DOWNSLOPING. FOR THE MOUNTAINS...THERE IS SOME MOISTURE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS HELP WITH OROGRAPHICS...HOWEVER...
MOISTURE DECREASES SLOWLY THROUGH THOSE TWO PERIODS...THERE IS
SLIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND NO HELP FROM SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT.
CURRENT GFE GRIDS HAVE 50-80% POPS IN THE HIGH MOUNTAINS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...THIS LOOK REASONABLE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
HIGHEST IN ZONE 31...BUT HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA AMOUNTS ARE UNLIKELY.
FOR TEMPERATURES...MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-3 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S.
TUESDAY HIGHS ARE 1-2 C WARMER THAN MONDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS
...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH THEN PUSHES
THROUGH BY FRIDAY MORNING. FLAT UPPER RIDGE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. ZONAL FLOW IS PROGGED DON SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
ENERGY AND MOISTURE FOR LIMITED MOUNTAIN POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
ALL FOUR DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE BECOME SLY. BY 16Z THEY MAY BECOME
MORE WLY AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A MORE WNW DIRECTION BY EARLY
AFTN. LATEST HRRR INDICATES SOME GUSTS FM 30 TO 35 MPH MAY OCCUR FM
20Z TO AROUND 00Z. BY EARLY EVENING WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WSW AND
THEN SSW BY 06Z. AS FOR CLOUD COVER MAY SEE CEILINGS BRIEFLY DROP
DOWN TO 8000 FT LATE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING AS A FAST MOVING
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS WHICH MAY PRODUCE VIRGA OR A FEW SPRINKLES.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ031-033.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1010 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND EXTENDING ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST TRACKS NORTH AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE AN ASSOCIATED LOW OVER
THE GULF COAST STATES TRACKS NORTHEAST...MOVING THROUGH THE
APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH
OF THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WITH
THE LOW MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. THIS
HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON FRIDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS FOR SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE REGION ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MUCH OF THE AREA BASED ON DUAL POL RADAR DATA AND SFC OBS HAS
TRANSITIONED OVER TO RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN AS A WARM FRONT IS
POISED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS LI/NYC METRO THIS EVENING. THE
LATEST HRRR HOWEVER IS SLOWER WITH THE WARM FRONT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS COMPARED TO THE 18Z GUIDANCE. THIS COULD HOLD
ON TO THE FREEZING RAIN A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE CT COAST AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. ADVISORY IS SET TO
EXPIRE ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS BY MIDNIGHT. THIS IS QUESTIONABLE
THOUGH WITH THE SFC HIGH WELL OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHENING SLY LOW-
LEVEL MOVING UP THE COAST.
TEMPS HAVE WARMED SUFFICIENTLY INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS
LI AND THUS THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN DROPPED. NYC IS LIKELY BE
DROPPED IN THE NEXT HOUR.
THERE IS STILL A CONCERN FOR FREEZING RAIN ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS
AND WALKWAYS FOR LOCATIONS ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING.
AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE REGION GETS INTO THE WARM
SECTOR...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF...AND MAY EVEN
END FOR A TIME AS FORCING WEAKENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THEN TUESDAY MORNING THE CHANCES OF RAIN WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
AS THE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. FOLLOWED A LITTLE MORE
INLAND SOLUTION AND DEEPER LOW AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES
NEGATIVE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A STRONG...60 KT
TO 70 KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WITH AN INVERSION IN PLACE DO NOT EXPECT THESE HIGHER
WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE EXCEPT IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS WITH THE
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE LOW IS QUICK MOVING AND PRECIPITATION TAPERS
AND ENDS TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH
FARTHER INLAND THE PRECIPITATION IS NOW EXPECTED TO END BEFORE
COLDER AIR RETURNS WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 FLOW ACROSS NOAM THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN US ON
WED WILL WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NE THROUGH THU GIVING WAY TO A RIDGE THU
NIGHT AND FRI. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER DURING
THIS TIME.
THE MODELS START TO DIVERGE WITH THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE LOWER 48 WHICH WILL IMPACT OUR AREA
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE CANADIAN IS THE SLOWEST OF THE OPERATIONAL
RUNS AND HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED. THE EC IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND WEAKER
WITH THE SFC LOW THAN THE GFS WHICH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED
SOONER. TOUGH TO GET TOO DETAILED AT THIS POINT BUT WITH NO DAMMING
HIGH TO THE NORTH...SCENARIO LOOKS LIKE PRIMARILY RAIN AT THE COAST
AND SNOW TO RAIN INLAND FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SFC LOW PASSES
WELL TO THE N SO QPF WILL BE LIGHT. HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BACK IN
BRIEFLY LATER SAT AND SUN WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL PASS NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH LOW PRESSURE THEN TRACKING UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS AND THRU THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
LINGERING FZRA SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AT KEWR AND KTEB BY
AROUND 5-6Z. TO THE N THE TRANSITION WILL BE SLOWER. MAINLY IFR
OR LOWER THRU THE TAF PERIOD. A ROUND OF HVY RAIN TUE AFTN. LOW
CHC OF AN EMBEDDED TSTM.
INCREASING WINDS ALOFT THRU TUE...WITH PEAK WINDS 16Z-23Z TUE.
LLWS REMAINS IN THE TAFS. AT THE SFC...NE FLOW VEERS TO THE SE
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT TNGT. TIMING MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IN TAFS
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE FRONT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.TUE NGT...BECOMING VFR. W WINDS 10-20KT.
.WED...MAINLY VFR. W WINDS 10-20KT.
.THU...VFR WITH NW FLOW 10-20KT.
.FRI...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT...SNOW WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS...CHANGING TO MIXED
PRECIP INLAND AND RAIN AT THE NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND
TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SAT...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN THE MORNING.
SW WINDS G20KT.
&&
.MARINE...
STARTED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE OCEAN WATERS THIS EVENING
AS WIND GUSTS WERE ALREADY NEAR SMALL CRAFT. IN ADDITION SEAS WILL
BE BUILDING TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATER TONIGHT.
WINDS INCREASE FURTHER TUESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE
LONG ISLAND SOUND...NEW YORK HARBOR...AND PECONIC AND GARDINERS
BAYS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS AND
SOUTH SHORE BAYS...EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS TUESDAY...AND A GALE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING.
SCA SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON WED...FALLING
BELOW 5 FT THU OR THU NIGHT. SUB-ADVSY CONDS PREVAIL ON ALL OTHER
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A
RATHER POTENTIAL CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SCA CONDS BACK TO THE
OCEAN AND PERHAPS EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND/BAYS AS WELL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A TOTAL OF 1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...OF LIQUID
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION FALLING AS SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY MAY LEAD TO URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
ISSUES. SOME SMALLER AND FASTER REACTING STREAMS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY MAY APPROACH BANKFULL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS
OF NASSAU AND SUFFOLK COUNTIES FOR THE TUE AFT/EARLY EVE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE FROM THE OH AND TN VALLEYS
TONIGHT AND INTO EASTERN PA BY TUE AFT...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH INTO
EASTERN CANADA BY TUE EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A STRONG SE FLOW
WITH GALE FORCE WINDS PUSHING WATER TOWARD THE COAST.
FORTUNATELY...TIDES ARE ASTRONOMICALLY LOW BEING BETWEEN A NEW AND
FULL MOON. WATER LEVELS ABOVE NORMAL NEEDED TO REACH MINOR COASTAL
FLOOD BENCHMARKS EARLY TUE MORNING ARE 2 TO 2 1/2 FT...WITH 2 1/2 TO
3 1/2 FT NEEDED FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE TUE AFT/EARLY EVE. THE FIRST
CYCLE SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM WITH WINDS JUST RAMPING UP.
HOWEVER...THE SECOND TIDE CYCLE WILL COINCIDE WITH A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF STRONG SE WINDS AND THE HIGHEST SURGE. SURGE VALUES OF 2
1/2 TO 3 FT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS THE
SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF LI AS WELL AS LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO PECONIC
AND GARDINERS BAYS. WATER LEVELS LOOK TO FALL JUST SHY OF MINOR
FLOOD BENCHMARKS ACROSS THE CT COAST AND THE NYC SOUTH SHORE BAYS.
SHOULD SUBSEQUENT GUIDANCE TREND UPWARD...THESE LOCATIONS COULD VERY
WELL BE ADDED.
AS FOR THE SURGE GUIDANCE...PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME WAS TO GO WITH
THE HIGHER ESTOFS...WHICH WAS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN THE ETSS.
SFAS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHILE HIGHER THAN THE ETSS...WAS ON AVERAGE ABOUT
A FOOT LOWER THAN THE ESTOFS. THE HIGHER END OF THE STEVENS ENSEMBLE
THOUGH IS MORE IN LINE WITH ESTOFS. PREFERENCE WAS BASED ON PAST
EXPERIENCE AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND STRESS.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ005>008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
CTZ009>012.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 8 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
NYZ079-081.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ067>070.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
NYZ071>075-176>178.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
NYZ080-179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ002.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ004-
006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ330-335-338-340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
900 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND EXTENDING ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST TRACKS NORTH AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE AN ASSOCIATED LOW OVER
THE GULF COAST STATES TRACKS NORTHEAST...MOVING THROUGH THE
APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH
OF THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WITH
THE LOW MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. THIS
HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON FRIDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS FOR SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE REGION ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MUCH OF THE AREA BASED ON DUAL POL RADAR DATA AND SFC OBS HAS
TRANSITIONED OVER TO RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN AS A WARM FRONT IS
POISED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS LI/NYC METRO THIS EVENING. THE
LATEST HRRR HOWEVER IS SLOWER WITH THE WARM FRONT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS COMPARED TO THE 18Z GUIDANCE. THIS COULD HOLD
ON TO THE FREEZING RAIN A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE CT COAST AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. ADVISORY IS SET TO
EXPIRE ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS BY MIDNIGHT. THIS IS QUESTIONABLE
THOUGH WITH THE SFC HIGH WELL OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHENING SLY LOW-
LEVEL MOVING UP THE COAST.
TEMPS HAVE WARMED SUFFICIENTLY INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS
LI AND THUS THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN DROPPED. NYC IS LIKELY BE
DROPPED IN THE NEXT HOUR.
THERE IS STILL A CONCERN FOR FREEZING RAIN ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS
AND WALKWAYS FOR LOCATIONS ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING.
AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE REGION GETS INTO THE WARM
SECTOR...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF...AND MAY EVEN
END FOR A TIME AS FORCING WEAKENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THEN TUESDAY MORNING THE CHANCES OF RAIN WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
AS THE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. FOLLOWED A LITTLE MORE
INLAND SOLUTION AND DEEPER LOW AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES
NEGATIVE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A STRONG...60 KT
TO 70 KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WITH AN INVERSION IN PLACE DO NOT EXPECT THESE HIGHER
WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE EXCEPT IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS WITH THE
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE LOW IS QUICK MOVING AND PRECIPITATION TAPERS
AND ENDS TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH
FARTHER INLAND THE PRECIPITATION IS NOW EXPECTED TO END BEFORE
COLDER AIR RETURNS WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 FLOW ACROSS NOAM THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN US ON
WED WILL WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NE THROUGH THU GIVING WAY TO A RIDGE THU
NIGHT AND FRI. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER DURING
THIS TIME.
THE MODELS START TO DIVERGE WITH THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE LOWER 48 WHICH WILL IMPACT OUR AREA
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE CANADIAN IS THE SLOWEST OF THE OPERATIONAL
RUNS AND HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED. THE EC IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND WEAKER
WITH THE SFC LOW THAN THE GFS WHICH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED
SOONER. TOUGH TO GET TOO DETAILED AT THIS POINT BUT WITH NO DAMMING
HIGH TO THE NORTH...SCENARIO LOOKS LIKE PRIMARILY RAIN AT THE COAST
AND SNOW TO RAIN INLAND FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SFC LOW PASSES
WELL TO THE N SO QPF WILL BE LIGHT. HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BACK IN
BRIEFLY LATER SAT AND SUN WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL PASS NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH LOW PRESSURE THEN TRACKING UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS AND THRU THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO FZRA THRU 1-3Z FROM S TO N. ACROSS LI ALL
ARPTS HAVE GONE TO RAIN WITH NO FZRA EXPECTED. TRANSITION TO
REGULAR RAIN OVERNIGHT FROM SE TO NW...BUT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
ICING LIKELY KEWR TO KHPN TO KSWF. QUICK TRANSITION TO RAIN AT
KGON IT IS POSSIBLE NO FZRA OCCURS.
INCREASING WINDS ALOFT THRU TUE...WITH PEAK WINDS 16Z-23Z TUE.
LLWS REMAINS IN THE TAFS. AT THE SFC...NE FLOW VEERS TO THE SE
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT TNGT. TIMING MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IN TAFS
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE FRONT.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: ALL RAIN THRU THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT FOR
POSSIBLE SLEET MIXING IN THRU 1Z. AND NELY WINDS MAY REMAIN A FEW
HOURS LONGER THAN FCST.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LESS THAN AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
EXPECTED. A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF ICE ACCRETION POSSIBLE. NELY WINDS
MAY REMAIN A FEW HOURS LONGER THAN FCST.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LESS THAN AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
EXPECTED. UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCRETION POSSIBLE.
NELY WINDS MAY REMAIN A FEW HOURS LONGER THAN FCST.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOW EXPECTED.
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCRETION POSSIBLE. NELY WINDS
MAY REMAIN A FEW HOURS LONGER THAN FCST.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOW EXPECTED.
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF ICE ACCRETION POSSIBLE. NELY WINDS MAY REMAIN
A FEW HOURS LONGER THAN FCST.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: ALL RAIN THRU THE TAF PERIOD. AMENDMENTS
POSSIBLE FOR CIGS AND VIS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.TUE NGT...BECOMING VFR. W WINDS 10-20KT.
.WED...MAINLY VFR. W WINDS 10-20KT.
.THU...VFR WITH NW FLOW 10-20KT.
.FRI...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT...SNOW WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS...CHANGING TO MIXED
PRECIP INLAND AND RAIN AT THE NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND
TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SAT...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN THE MORNING.
SW WINDS G20KT.
&&
.MARINE...
STARTED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE OCEAN WATERS THIS EVENING
AS WIND GUSTS WERE ALREADY NEAR SMALL CRAFT. IN ADDITION SEAS WILL
BE BUILDING TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATER TONIGHT.
WINDS INCREASE FURTHER TUESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE
LONG ISLAND SOUND...NEW YORK HARBOR...AND PECONIC AND GARDINERS
BAYS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS AND
SOUTH SHORE BAYS...EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS TUESDAY...AND A GALE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING.
SCA SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON WED...FALLING
BELOW 5 FT THU OR THU NIGHT. SUB-ADVSY CONDS PREVAIL ON ALL OTHER
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A
RATHER POTENTIAL CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SCA CONDS BACK TO THE
OCEAN AND PERHAPS EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND/BAYS AS WELL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A TOTAL OF 1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...OF LIQUID
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION FALLING AS SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY MAY LEAD TO URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
ISSUES. SOME SMALLER AND FASTER REACTING STREAMS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY MAY APPROACH BANKFULL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS
OF NASSAU AND SUFFOLK COUNTIES FOR THE TUE AFT/EARLY EVE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE FROM THE OH AND TN VALLEYS
TONIGHT AND INTO EASTERN PA BY TUE AFT...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH INTO
EASTERN CANADA BY TUE EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A STRONG SE FLOW
WITH GALE FORCE WINDS PUSHING WATER TOWARD THE COAST.
FORTUNATELY...TIDES ARE ASTRONOMICALLY LOW BEING BETWEEN A NEW AND
FULL MOON. WATER LEVELS ABOVE NORMAL NEEDED TO REACH MINOR COASTAL
FLOOD BENCHMARKS EARLY TUE MORNING ARE 2 TO 2 1/2 FT...WITH 2 1/2 TO
3 1/2 FT NEEDED FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE TUE AFT/EARLY EVE. THE FIRST
CYCLE SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM WITH WINDS JUST RAMPING UP.
HOWEVER...THE SECOND TIDE CYCLE WILL COINCIDE WITH A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF STRONG SE WINDS AND THE HIGHEST SURGE. SURGE VALUES OF 2
1/2 TO 3 FT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS THE
SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF LI AS WELL AS LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO PECONIC
AND GARDINERS BAYS. WATER LEVELS LOOK TO FALL JUST SHY OF MINOR
FLOOD BENCHMARKS ACROSS THE CT COAST AND THE NYC SOUTH SHORE BAYS.
SHOULD SUBSEQUENT GUIDANCE TREND UPWARD...THESE LOCATIONS COULD VERY
WELL BE ADDED.
AS FOR THE SURGE GUIDANCE...PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME WAS TO GO WITH
THE HIGHER ESTOFS...WHICH WAS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN THE ETSS.
SFAS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHILE HIGHER THAN THE ETSS...WAS ON AVERAGE ABOUT
A FOOT LOWER THAN THE ESTOFS. THE HIGHER END OF THE STEVENS ENSEMBLE
THOUGH IS MORE IN LINE WITH ESTOFS. PREFERENCE WAS BASED ON PAST
EXPERIENCE AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND STRESS.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ005>008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
CTZ009>012.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 8 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
NYZ079-081.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ067>070.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
NYZ071>075-176>178.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
NYZ080-179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ002.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ004-
006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ330-335-338-340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
829 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
.UPDATE...
A COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS
DIVERGE WITH THIS FEATURE. NAM DEPICTS A LOW DEVELOPING IN THE
TROUGH...WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES...WHEREAS GFS AND HRRR DEPICT A
MUCH WEAKER TROUGH WITH RAIN LARGELY STAYING OVER THE WATERS. THUS
FAR NAM IS TOO STRONG WITH TROUGH AS COMPARED TO OBSERVED...SO WILL
BE TRENDING TOWARD HRRR WITH UPDATE.
&&
.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND MOVE ASHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL TAF
SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 57 42 69 54 / 0 10 30 70
SSI 54 44 64 57 / 10 20 20 70
JAX 61 46 72 59 / 20 10 20 70
SGJ 60 53 72 59 / 20 20 20 70
GNV 66 47 76 57 / 0 0 10 70
OCF 68 51 77 59 / 0 0 10 60
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
STRUBLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
354 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
09Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING. DEEP AND VERY
COLD LONGWAVE TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...BUT
IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. FURTHER
UPSTREAM A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM JET IS ARRIVING OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTS BEFORE SPILLING OVER THE
ROCKIES INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. CLOSER TO HOME THE UPPER PATTERN IS MORE
QUIET...WITH A GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. COLUMN OVER OUR HEADS REMAINS QUITE
DRY THIS MORNING...AND THIS DRY AIR COMBINED WITH LITTLE TO NO
SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT IS PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES.
AT THE SURFACE...1035MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA
CONTINUES TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...PROVIDING A GENERAL NORTHEASTERLY SYNOPTIC
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES AS OF 4 AM ARE SEASONABLY
COOL...WITH MIDDLE 30S UP TOWARD CHIEFLAND AND GENERALLY 40S
ELSEWHERE. STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN HOUR OR SO OF TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR LEVY COUNTY BEFORE THE
SUN RISES...WITH A TOUCH OF FROST IN PLACES. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL
PUFFS OF WIND TO AROUND 5 MPH SHOULD PREVENT COMPLETE DECOUPLING
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...KEEP THINGS SLIGHTLY MIXED...AND PREVENT
TEMPS FROM GETTING TOO LOW. IT MAY BE A COOL MORNING FOR US...BUT
IT COULD CERTAINLY BE WORSE. WAS JUST LOOKING AT THE OBSERVATIONS
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...AND BOSTON LOGAN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (JUST
AS AN EXAMPLE) HAD AN AIR TEMPERATURE OF -7 F...AND A WIND CHILL
OF -33 F. MAKES THINGS SEEM NOT QUITE AS CHILLY AROUND THESE
PARTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
A VERY PLEASANT DAY ON TAP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AFTER A SEASONABLY COOL START TO THE MORNING. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. LOW LEVEL
WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND BEGIN TO MIGRATE
SOME HIGHER LEVELS OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE PENINSULA FROM THE
ATLANTIC BELOW 850MB. WITH DIURNAL MIXING WORKING ON THIS ADDED
MOISTURE...SHOULD SEE A FEW-SCT SHALLOW CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOP
MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...MAKING THE FORECAST MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY SUNNY. VERY DRY AIR REMAINS ABOVE 850MB...SO IF WE MIX
EFFICIENTLY ENOUGH...WE MAY LOOSE THE SCT CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY.
WILL HAVE TO SEE IF WE CAN MIX THAT HIGH. TEMPERATURES END UP JUST
A TAD BELOW NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY...WITH MID 60S FAR NORTH...TO
THE UPPER 60S CENTRAL ZONES...AND LOWER 70S SOUTH. MAY BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER AT THE SHORE FOR EACH OF THESE AREAS AS WINDS
SLACKEN AND POTENTIALLY TURN LIGHT ONSHORE FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS
AFTERNOON.
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR TONIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
NOT QUITE AS COOL. LOOKING FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S FAR
NORTH...AND 50S ELSEWHERE. WE CAN ALL HANDLE THAT. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...WELL OFF TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...OUR NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT
OFF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
BY THE END OF THE NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE
NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING OUR NEXT RAIN
CHANCES BEGINNING LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
GENERALLY SPEAKING...MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DRY DAY. HOWEVER...A
FEW THINGS WILL COME INTO PLACE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH
SUGGEST A FEW WIDELY SCT SHOWERS COULD BREAK OUT. CURRENTLY HAVE A
20% POP IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS AFTER 2 PM. MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE KIND OF LACKING THROUGH THE COLUMN MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
WILL BE WATCHING THAT INITIAL SHORTWAVE APPROACH THE REGION LATE
IN THE DAY...SPREADING A BROAD SWATH OF QVECTOR CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE PENINSULA AHEAD OF IT. ALONG WITH THIS WEAK SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT FOR LIFT...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAIRLY DECENT
(6-7C/KM)...OVER DECENT TERRESTRIAL DIURNAL HEATING. GIVEN SOME
KINEMATICS AND THE DECENT THERMODYNAMICS...WOULD BE SURPRISED IF
WE DID NOT SEE A FEW SHOWERS BREAK OUT BY THE TIME WE REACH PEAK
HEATING. EITHER WAY...SHOWERS WILL BE WIDELY SCT AND BRIEF IN
NATURE...SO IMPACT WILL BE MINOR. OTHERWISE...LOOKING FOR A SLOW
INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO
THE 70S. ONCE AGAIN...AN ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WIND AT THE
IMMEDIATE SHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP THE BEACHES
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN LOCATIONS EVEN JUST A MILES OR TWO
INLAND.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWER OR EVEN A STORMS ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT
WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME...THE THREAT FOR STRONG
TO THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA IS LOW. MORE ON THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST AND BEYOND IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN STATES CONTINUES THROUGH WED
AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAL
STATES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...DRAGGING A SURFACE LOW WITH IT
THAT TRAILS A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD. THIS FRONT CROSSES THE GULF
COAST AND FL EARLY TUE THEN EXITS BY TUE NIGHT. IN RESPONSE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS FL FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT EAST
WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...THEN
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE FLOW WILL
HELP MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE BUT ONLY MODERATELY. MODEL PWAT VALUES
RANGE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE. WHILE THE MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH...ALONG WITH SOME LIFT PROVIDED BY
THE FRONT...TO SUPPORT CHANCE-LIKELY SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST ODDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED
TO STAY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW.
FOR WED THROUGH SAT - THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE OPEN ATLANTIC AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OVER THE WESTERN STATES THEN SLIDES EAST...
FLATTENING OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE CONUS BY SAT. AT THE SURFACE
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND MOVES
EAST... SPRAWLING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY FRI THEN SETTLING
IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC FOR
SAT. THE AREA WILL BE DOMINATED BY CLEAR TO SUNNY SKIES AND A COOL
DRY AIR MASS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO SEASONAL...BUT ON THE COOL SIDE FOR
THE MOST PART.
&&
.AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHEAST WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY AFTER SUNRISE AND REMAIN
EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. FEW-SCT CUMULUS FIELDS DEVELOPS EAST TO
WEST ACROSS THE PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH BASES
GENERALLY 3-4KFT.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH WILL MIGRATE OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE...LOCAL WIND WILL
COME AROUND FROM THE NORTHEAST TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION. OUR
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
MONDAY...AND PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST WATERS MONDAY NIGHT OR
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH BEHIND
THIS FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN
BUILDS TO OUR NORTH.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE...WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY LATER TODAY. THE EASTERLY FLOW
BRINGS A SLOW RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC
AND PREVENTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY FROM DROPPING BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO IMPACT OUR REGION ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT OR
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A QUICK ROUND OF SHOWERS. DRY WEATHER RETURNS
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY DOWN FROM THE NORTH.
FOG POTENTIAL...
NO FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 70 55 75 62 / 0 0 20 50
FMY 73 56 77 64 / 0 0 20 30
GIF 69 54 76 61 / 0 10 20 50
SRQ 69 56 72 61 / 0 0 20 40
BKV 70 53 77 59 / 0 0 20 60
SPG 69 57 73 62 / 0 0 20 50
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
SARASOTA.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
416 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL
SHIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND INTO
THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO
RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY
HAVE LIMITED TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY OFF THE ATLANTIC AFTER 00Z AND WEAK ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE OVERSPREADS THE COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. THE
CLOUD COVER WILL ACTUALLY HELP TEMPERATURES REMAIN SOMEWHAT STEADY
OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN
SOME COOLER AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AS AN IN SITU COLD
AIR DAMMING WEDGE DEVELOPS. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN VERY SHALLOW IN
THE LOWEST 4000-5000FT WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND NO MOISTURE IN THE
SNOW GROWTH AREA. NO DYNAMICAL FORCING OVERNIGHT WITH THE ONLY
LIFT OCCURRING FROM ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. THINK MUCH OF ANY
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WILL FALL AS VIRGA AND GO INTO SATURATING
THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER WITH LITTLE IF ANY REACHING THE GROUND.
POPS INCREASE AFTER 06Z INTO THE CHANCE RANGE BY EARLY MORNING AND
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PREDOMINATE PTYPE WOULD BE FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE BUT MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VERY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
MANNING TO AIKEN TO MCCORMICK DURING THE 12Z-15Z TIME FRAME
BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHWEST AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM ERODES THE WEDGE. CANNOT RULE OUT A TRACE OF ICE
ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND AFTER COLLABORATION
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES DECIDED TO POST A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
FOR LANCASTER AND CHESTERFIELD COUNTIES ENDING AT 17Z. THINK
IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH ANY ICING OCCURRING ON ELEVATED
SURFACES AND THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT LITTLE ACCUMULATION
OCCURS AT ALL GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABLE.
CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES TO OUR WEST AND UPPER FORCING/ASCENT
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. GENERALLY EXPECT A LULL IN PRECIP FROM
MID MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN POPS RAMP UP TO
CATEGORICAL OVERNIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AS
STRONG SOUTHERLY 50-55KT LOW LEVEL JET PROVIDES AMPLE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM AS LAPSE RATES BECOME STEEP AND CROSS TOTALS REMAIN
HIGH...ALTHOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY
NON-EXISTENT. AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM A QUARTER
INCH TO AS MUCH AS 0.75 INCHES DUE TO INCREASED FORCING AS THE
UPPER TROUGH TAKES A NEGATIVE TILT.
NON STANDARD TEMPERATURE TREND EXPECTED WITH TEMPS RISING LATE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE LOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS ALSO LIKELY AND A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL EJECT EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY TUESDAY. THE GFS MOVES THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA MORE
QUICKLY THAN THE NAM AND IS WARMER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE GFS AND HAVE POPS GRADUALLY DECREASING
AFTER 12Z AND POPS LESS THAN 15 BY 18Z. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
MUCH OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS RETURNING THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN AT AGS/DNL/OGB AND FREEZING RAIN AT CAE/CUB BEGINNING
JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BUT AS TEMPERATURES RISE AT CAE/CUB...
THE THREAT OF ANY FROZEN PRECIP WILL DIMINISH. HAVE LEFT OUT
MENTION OF PRECIP DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND MINIMAL IF
ANY VISIBILITY IMPACTS.
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING
AS ONSHORE FLOW PROMOTES WEDGE DEVELOPMENT. THE HRRR IS MORE
PESSIMISTIC THAN MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND TAKES THE CEILINGS
DOWN TO IFR OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
NO FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT DUE TO WIND AND CLOUDS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES
THE REGION. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ALSO EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR SCZ015-
016.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
317 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL
SHIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND INTO
THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO
RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY
HAVE LIMITED TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY OFF THE ATLANTIC AFTER 00Z AND WEAK ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE OVERSPREADS THE COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. THE
CLOUD COVER WILL ACTUALLY HELP TEMPERATURES REMAIN SOMEWHAT STEADY
OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN
SOME COOLER AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AS AN IN SITU COLD
AIR DAMMING WEDGE DEVELOPS. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN VERY SHALLOW IN
THE LOWEST 4000-5000FT WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND NO MOISTURE IN THE
SNOW GROWTH AREA. NO DYNAMICAL FORCING OVERNIGHT WITH THE ONLY
LIFT OCCURRING FROM ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. THINK MUCH OF ANY
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WILL FALL AS VIRGA AND GO INTO SATURATING
THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER WITH LITTLE IF ANY REACHING THE GROUND.
POPS INCREASE AFTER 06Z INTO THE CHANCE RANGE BY EARLY MORNING AND
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PREDOMINATE PTYPE WOULD BE FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE BUT MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VERY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
MANNING TO AIKEN TO MCCORMICK DURING THE 12Z-15Z TIME FRAME
BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHWEST AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM ERODES THE WEDGE. CANNOT RULE OUT A TRACE OF ICE
ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND AFTER COLLABORATION
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES DECIDED TO POST A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
FOR LANCASTER AND CHESTERFIELD COUNTIES ENDING AT 17Z. THINK
IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH ANY ICING OCCURRING ON ELEVATED
SURFACES AND THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT LITTLE ACCUMULATION
OCCURS AT ALL GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABLE.
CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES TO OUR WEST AND UPPER FORCING/ASCENT
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. GENERALLY EXPECT A LULL IN PRECIP FROM
MID MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN POPS RAMP UP TO
CATEGORICAL OVERNIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AS
STRONG SOUTHERLY 50-55KT LOW LEVEL JET PROVIDES AMPLE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM AS LAPSE RATES BECOME STEEP AND CROSS TOTALS REMAIN
HIGH...ALTHOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY
NON-EXISTENT. AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM A QUARTER
INCH TO AS MUCH AS 0.75 INCHES DUE TO INCREASED FORCING AS THE
UPPER TROUGH TAKES A NEGATIVE TILT.
NON STANDARD TEMPERATURE TREND EXPECTED WITH TEMPS RISING LATE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE LOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS ALSO LIKELY AND A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL EJECT EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY TUESDAY. THE GFS MOVES THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA MORE
QUICKLY THAN THE NAM AND IS WARMER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE GFS AND HAVE POPS GRADUALLY DECREASING
AFTER 12Z AND POPS LESS THAN 15 BY 18Z. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
MUCH OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS RETURNING THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING
OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AT
AGS/DNL/OGB AND FREEZING RAIN AT CAE/CUB BEGINNING JUST BEFORE
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS BUT AS TEMPERATURES RISE AT CAE/CUB...THE THREAT OF
ANY FROZEN PRECIP WILL DIMINISH. HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF PRECIP
IN CURRENT ISSUANCE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT SO EXPECT ONLY MINIMAL IF ANY VISIBILITY
IMPACTS. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND LOWER TO MVFR LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW PROMOTES WEDGE DEVELOPMENT.
THE HRRR IS MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND
TAKES THE CEILINGS DOWN TO IFR OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
ENE THROUGH THE PERIOD AT AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. NO FOG EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT DUE TO WIND AND INCREASING CLOUDS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES
THE REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR SCZ015-
016.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1244 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL
SHIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND INTO
THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS
MORNING CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES USHERING
IN COOL AND DRY AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA. DEWPOINTS REMAIN VERY
LOW FROM AROUND 0 TO 5 DEGREES ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXTENDING
ACROSS THE UPSTATE INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MIDLANDS...ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE BEEN ERODING ON THE EASTERN SIDE.
THIS HAS SLOWED THE TEMPERATURES FROM RISING AS FAST COMPARED TO
AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND HAVE UPDATED HOURLY TEMP GRIDS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LARGER DIFFERENCE. TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK TO RISE
INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE CSRA BUT WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. SOME LIGHT VIRGA SHOWING UP REGIONAL
RADAR ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA BUT NO STATIONS ARE REPORTING
ANY PRECIPITATION WITH SO MUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE ABOVE THE SURFACE.
DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND THIS
AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST AND A LOW-LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS SHOW AN
INVERTED TROUGH OR WARM FRONT DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST.
HOWEVER...THERE IS CONSISTENCY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINING
NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WELL AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN A
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING BUT WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL LIFT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE
NAM...GFS...ECMWF AND NEARLY ALL SREF MEMBERS SHOW VERY LITTLE
QPF...MAINLY NEAR 0.01 OF AN INCH. THE ARW AND SPC WRF KEEP
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT IN THE NORTH
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE NAM WAS COLDER IN THE SOUTH
SECTION. WE USED A GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE FREEZING RAIN AS THE
PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST
SECTION. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAY BE
NEEDED FOR LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF DISPLAY AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD AND INTO THE
AREA MONDAY. PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT. LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL LIFT IS INDICATED. THE MODELS
HAVE SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF HAVE QPF AROUND 0.01 OF AN INCH MONDAY
MORNING...AND 0.01 TO 0.1 OF AN INCH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE OF
FREEZING RAIN EXCEPT IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART. THE FREEZING
RAIN THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD. USED AN AVERAGE OF THE NAM AND GFS FOR THE
TIMING. THE NAM WAS SLOWER ERODING THE COLDEST AIR AND MAY BE
CORRECT BECAUSE OF THE WEDGE PATTERN BUT THE MODEL HAS HAD A COLD
BIAS OF LATE. BASED ON THE MODEL AGREEMENT WITH LITTLE QPF AND
EXPECTED SHALLOW MOISTURE WE HAVE NOT POSTED A WINTER STORM WATCH
BECAUSE THE CHANCE OF 0.25 OF AN INCH OF ICE WAS TOO LOW.
HOWEVER...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT WITH WARMING
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
SHOULD OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...STRONG H85 JET...AND H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE MODELS
DISPLAY QPF OF 0.25 TO 1 INCH WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF SHOWING THE
GREATER AMOUNTS. WE LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER VALUES BASED ON THE
MODEL CONSISTENCY OF A 50-KNOTS H85 JET. THE NAM MAINTAINS
SURFACE-BASED STABILITY WITH LI/S ABOVE ZERO. HOWEVER...A FEW
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR WITH CROSS TOTALS FORECAST IN THE
MID AND UPPER 20S. EXPECT RISING TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY DRYING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND H5 SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FOR TUESDAY. WE HAVE FORECASTED A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE.
FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE
MODELS SHOW MUCH OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DEPICT DRY RIDGING DOMINATING DURING THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE NEAR OR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING
OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AT
AGS/DNL/OGB AND FREEZING RAIN AT CAE/CUB BEGINNING JUST BEFORE
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS BUT AS TEMPERATURES RISE AT CAE/CUB...THE THREAT OF
ANY FROZEN PRECIP WILL DIMINISH. HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF PRECIP
IN CURRENT ISSUANCE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT SO EXPECT ONLY MINIMAL IF ANY VISIBILITY
IMPACTS. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND LOWER TO MVFR LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW PROMOTES WEDGE DEVELOPMENT.
THE HRRR IS MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND
TAKES THE CEILINGS DOWN TO IFR OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
ENE THROUGH THE PERIOD AT AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. NO FOG EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT DUE TO WIND AND INCREASING CLOUDS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES
THE REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
906 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
.UPDATE...
905 PM CST
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FREEZING FOG
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/LIGHT SNOW
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
DENSE FREEZING FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY:
THERE WILL BE NO DRY AIR ADVECTION DUE TO NON EXISTENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT/LIGHT WIND REGIME TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AXIS OF HIGHER 25+ DEGREE DEWPOINTS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. ALREADY SEEING SOME SITES IN CENTRAL
ILLINOIS DROP DOWN TO 1/2 MILE VISIBILITY. ANTICIPATE THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY FALL WHILE DEWPOINTS DO NOT BUDGE THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL SATURATION SHOULD THEN ENABLE AREAS
OF FREEZING FOG TO BLOSSOM. THERE ARE CONFLICTING SIGNALS ON THE
GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF DENSE FOG COVERAGE WITHIN THE CWA.
HOWEVER...LAV/LAMP AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR HAVE CONSISTENTLY FAVORED
INCREASING DENSE FOG COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. FEEL THAT PATTERN
RECOGNITION ALSO SUPPORTS THERE BEING AREAS OF DENSE FREEZING FOG
OVERNIGHT. ONLY CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST WAS TO ADD PATCHY
FREEZING FOG THIS EVENING AND ALSO MID TO LATE TUESDAY MORNING.
DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE YET TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
PLAN IS TO MONITOR TRENDS THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND PASS ON CONCERNS
TO EVENING SHIFT.
SNOW SHOWER/LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL TUES AFTERNOON-TUESDAY EVENING:
FAIRLY STRONG CLIPPER WILL MISS CWA TO THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY
MORNING. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD FROM HUDSON BAY. ELONGATED VORTICITY MAXIMA ALONG THE
TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 18Z GFS DO NOT SHOW
SUPERSATURATION OF SNOW GROWTH ZONE...BUT THIS WILL BE COMPENSATED
FOR BY DECENT LIFT FROM THE TROUGH/VORT MAX AND ALSO FAIRLY STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. 00Z NAM DID COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
CONSISTENT DEPICTION ON GLOBAL MODELS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD
TO THE CHANCE (UP TO 40%) RANGE FOR NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE CWA LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN MAINTAINED UP TO 40 POPS TUESDAY
EVENING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. COULD SEE NEEDING TO ADD LIKELY
POPS. TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE TROUGH...LACK OF SUPERSATURATION OF
THE DGZ...AND ONLY BRIEF PERIOD OF GOOD LIFT SUGGEST THAT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UP TO 1/2 INCH.
IN SUMMARY...MORNING COMMUTE MAY BE IMPACTED BY DENSE FOG AND
EVENING COMMUTE COULD HAVE MINOR IMPACTS FROM SNOW SHOWERS/LIGHT
SNOW. REST OF FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND UPDATED ZONES HAVE
BEEN SENT.
RC
&&
.SHORT TERM...
228 PM CST
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
PRIMARY SHORT TERM CONCERNS INCLUDE CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR
MORE FOG TONIGHT. STRATUS DECK HOLDING STRONG THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ONLY MINOR DIRUNAL IMPROVEMENT NOTED THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT
FLOW...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME VERY WEAK
MOIST ADVECTION TONIGHT...COMBINED WITH ADDED BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLING DUE TO FRESH SNOW PACK ALL POINT TO CIGS BULDING DOWNWARD
AFTER SUNSET AND LIKELY CULMINATING INTO A FOG EVENT OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO CONSIDER GOING
WITH ANY SORT OF FOG ADVISORY...BUT DID INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR
DENSE FREEZING FOG IN THE GRIDS AND WILL ADD TO HWO AS WELL.
FOG AND STRATUS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO BURN OFF AGAIN TUESDAY. HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE TEMPS DUE TO THE
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER. MAINTAINED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
EXTREME WEST AND SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA FOR THE CLIPPER
PASSING TO OUR WEST DURING THE DAY...BUT TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE
WOULD STRONGLY FAVOR PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINING WELL WEST
OF OUR CWA.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL TRYING TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT QPF TUESDAY
EVENING WITH SECONDARY WEAKER SHORTWAVE FOLLOWING QUICKLY ON THE
HEELS OF THE AFTERNOON CLIPPER...BUT TRACKING FARTHER EAST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE OR
SATURATED...SO REALLY NOT INCLINED TO GO GUNG-HO WITH POPS TUESDAY
EVENING BUT GIVEN MODEL CONSENSUS DID NUDGE THEM UP A BIT. IF
ANYTHING FALLS...ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL.
IZZI
&&
.LONG TERM...
228 PM CST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SHOULD START THE DAY WEDNESDAY SOCKED IN UNDER THE STRATUS
DECK...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE CLEAR OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ALWAYS PRETTY SKEPTICAL OF THIS SIGNAL IN THE MODELS SO TRIED TO
NUDGE SKY COVER UP A BIT IN THE GRIDS...BUT WOULDNT BE SHOCKED TO
SEE CLEARING BE EVEN SLOWER THAN WHAT I HAVE DEPICTED.
TRANSITION AWAY FROM OUR RECENT WEEK LONG SPELL OF TYPICAL
CHICAGO WINTER WEATHER SHOULD COMMENCE THURSDAY. TEMPS ON THURSDAY
ARE TRICKY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE QUICKLY RAMPING UP...BUT
AM CONCERNED THAT MUCH OF THE WARMING WILL BE CONFINED TO ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH OUR A GOOD DEAL OF THE WARMING WASTED ON
MELTING OUR SNOW COVER. THE LIQUID CONTENT OF THE SNOW IS FAIRLY
LOW AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. SUSPECT HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE
REACHED THURSDAY EVENNG AFTER DARK AND CONTINUED STRONG WINDS WILL
ADVECT IN DEWPOINTS OF 40F+ WHICH SHOULD MAKE SHORT ORDER OF ANY
LINGERING SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY HAS BEEN TRENDING QUICKER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY RISE THROUGH THE 40S AND COULD BE PUCHING 50 FRIDAY
MORNING...THE EARLY ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY MAY END UP
NIPPING THE CHANCES OF 60F IN THE BUD. NONE-THE-LESS WITH ONLY
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AND SUCH A WARM START TO
THE DAY...HIGHS FRIDAY STILL LOOK SOLIDLY IN THE 50S. VERY STRONG
SOUTH BECOMING WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD DAMPER HOW MILD IT FEELS JUST
A BIT THOUGH. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PROBABLY INTO THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS WELL. GIVEN THE FAIRLY FAST FLOW...LITTLE TIME SHOULD
EXIST FOR APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN SO CHANCES OF SEEING MUCH
PRECIP WITH FRONT FRIDAY OR OVER THE WEEKEND LOOKS PRETTY LOW.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...
MAIN CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN IL AIRFIELDS...WITH IFR TO POSSIBLY
LIFR CONDS AFT 6Z THROUGH 15Z. WINDS REMAINING SOUTHWESTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT...THIS WILL ALLOW SOME ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE ALREADY MOIST ATMOSPHERE OVER THE
TAF SITES. WITH CIGS ALREADY HOVERING AROUND 1KFT AGL...GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH INDICATING CIGS WILL LOWER FURTHER
TOWARDS 400-500FT AGL BY 6Z. IN ADDITION CONFIDENCE IS GROWING
THAT FOG MAY DEVELOP AND REDUCE VSBYS DOWN TO ARND 1SM AT
ORD/MDW...WHILE FURTHER WEST VSBYS COULD DIP FURTHER TOWARDS 1/2SM
OR 3/4SM OVERNIGHT...AND WOULD LIKELY LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK AND
POSSIBLY LONGER. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING EAST/NORTHEAST BY MIDDAY
TUE...WITH A LOW PRESSURE SLIDING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
IL. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO EVENTUALLY TURN NORTHWEST BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON TUE.
THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM THAT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
IL/NORTHWEST IN AFT 21Z TUE AND COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW...SO
HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. TEMPS COULD BE WARM
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
228 PM CST
DID NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES...BUT A GALE WATCH WILL BE NEEDED FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE SOUTH HALF AND
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE NORTH HALF. A GALE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR THE NSH WATERS FRIDAY AS WELL.
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT. FOG CONTINUES IN THE NSH WATERS...AND FREEZING FOG IS
EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS INCREASE
TO 30 KT TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
WINDS DIMINISH UNDER THE HIGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND
THEN BECOME SOUTH BEHIND THE HIGH THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS INCREASE
TO 30 KT THROUGHOUT THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY GALES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE
LAKES FRIDAY LEADING TO A POSSIBLE SHORT BREAK IN THE GALES.
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW FAR NORTH THE LOW WILL PASS...AND A MORE
NORTHERLY PATH COULD RESULT IN GALES ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...WENT WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY PATH IN THE FORECAST SO ONLY
HAVE GALES CONTINUING FRIDAY ACROSS THE NSH WATERS AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE. WEST WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
251 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
Will continue the Winter Weather Advisory until 6 pm across CWA.
Between 2-4 inches of snow has fallen across much of central and
southeast IL so far today, with the highest amounts from Galesburg
to Lincoln and Decatur southwest to Springfield and Taylorville.
Less than 1 inch of additional snow expected east of I-57 and from I-
74 north where light snow lingers longest into late afternoon and
early evening. Some patchy freezing drizzle to develop from west to
east during late afternoon and into tonight as we lose mid level
cloud layer. Vigorous 539 dm 500 mb low over far nw IL will track
into ne IL by early evening and into Lake Erie overnight with a
lingering short wave trof hanging back over the Midwest into Monday.
This should keep low clouds around along with trace amounts of
precipitation (very light snow/flurries and patchy freezing drizzle
especially this evening). Temperatures will be nearly steady
tonight mostly in the low to mid 20s. Brisk southeast winds 10-20
mph and gusts to 25 mph this afternoon to diminish to 5-10 mph
overnight and veer more southerly.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
Monday is apt to be a mostly quiet day, with temperatures climbing
back toward normal for mid-February. Some model guidance continues
to suggest very light rain/snow falling across the western or
southern portion of the forecast area by afternoon as a weak short
wave crosses the region. However, the already weak wave is
diminishing further as it shears into the mean upper trof, and
really do not expect measurable precipitation with this feature.
Maintained a Slight Chance afternoon PoP for continuity and to blend
with our neighbors, but feel these PoPs can probably be dropped if
models continue to look as they do now.
The forecast for late Monday night into Tuesday remains problematic
as model guidance continues to show notable differences in the
timing/track of a clipper system. Run to run consistency with this
system has been a problem too. Blended guidance still suggests
temperatures warming enough by afternoon for most of the
precipitation to change to rain. However, faster solutions suggest
most, if not all, of the precipitation will have fallen by then.
Thermal profiles support all snow during the Monday night and most
of Tuesday morning hours, so it is looking increasingly likely that
at least minor snow accumulation can be expected with this system.
For now, have most locations seeing around 1" total, but this will
obviously need to be tweaked as the models come to a stronger
consensus in the next few runs.
Whatever snow we do get Tuesday will not be around long as upper
heights rise and southerly low level flow develops heading into the
end of the week. These factors support temperatures rising to well
above normal levels, with highs by Friday topping out around 60
across most of the forecast area. A cold front coming through
Friday/Friday night may have rainfall associated with it, but it
does not appear likely to be significant. Behind the cold front,
temperatures remain above normal, with the mean flow coming in off
the Pacific coast. Another disturbance within this zonal flow may
bring additional rainfall by the end of the weekend, but expected
differences (at this time range) in timing/track of this system
exist.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
Light to moderate snow that has been bringing vsbys down to
1/4-3/4 mile along with ceilings between 500-1500 ft across
central IL past few hours. The back edge of this snow was along a
Burlington, IA to Jacksonville line and HRRR has the snow
diminishing eastward toward the IN border by 21Z. But there is
some wrap around light snow over central/se IA that will affect
northern TAF sites along I-74 through dusk. Could see some patchy
freezing drizzle develop from west to east during late afternoon
and into the evening but coverage too limited to mention at this
time. SE winds 10-17 kts and gusts of 18-25 kts this afternoon to
diminish to around 10 kts this evening and then 5-8 kts overnight
and veer SSE. SSW winds 5-9 kts expected Monday morning. Kept low
clouds of MVFR to IFR around tonight into Monday morning with
vsbys becoming MVFR later this afternoon as snow diminishing and
continues MVFR vsbys with some fog/low level moisture tonight and
linger into Monday morning as winds become lighter.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1159 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
Updated the forecast to address snowfall today and will continue
the winter weather advisory across CWA through 6 pm today. Second
and larger band of light to moderate snow had spread east across
IL by late this morning, with back edge of this snow just west of
CWA. Though more wrap around mainly light snows were over central
and eastern IA and will spread across northern CWA during the
afternoon, keeping them in the snow longer and also higher total
snowfall amounts of 3-4 inches. Central and southeast CWA to see
an additional 1-3 inches rest of today with total of 2-3 inches,
though heavier bands of snow from Springfield south to Litchfield
and east toward Taylorville and Shelbyville. Southeast winds of
10-20 mph and gusts to around 25 mph to continue some blowing and
drifting snow. Temps at 1030 am were in the upper teens and lower
20s. Highs this afternoon in the mid to upper 20s look on track.
540 dm 500 mb low over east central Iowa to track into northern/ne
IL by 00Z/6 pm today and then into nw Ohio by 06Z/midnight
tonight. This feature associated with the wrap around snows in
central/eastern IA that moves across the northern CWA during the
afternoon. Otherwise back edge of snow to spread eastward across
central/se IL during the afternoon and some patchy freezing
drizzle appears in sw CWA late this afternoon and rest of CWA
during tonight as we lose mid level clouds.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
08z/2am water vapor imagery shows a vigorous short-wave trough over
eastern Nebraska. A narrow band of snow has developed well in
advance of this feature across the central sections of Iowa and
Illinois in association with strong 700-500mb layer frontogenesis.
Latest radar imagery/surface obs show the snow band centered along a
Galesburg...to Lincoln...to Marshall line. This band is expected to
gradually lift northward over the next few hours, as frontogenetic
forcing shifts northward and weakens. Snowfall of one half inch or
less will be likely with this initial burst of snow early this
morning. The main precip event will hold off until later this
morning as stronger/more widespread synoptic lift associated with
the short-wave arrives. HRRR seems to be handling the current
precip field better than any other model, so have followed its
solution closely in the short-term. It shows snow rapidly
developing in advance of the approaching wave and spreading eastward
into central Illinois between 15z and 18z. Based on speed of wave,
a 4-5 hour period of light to moderate snow is expected from late
morning through mid-afternoon before the precip begins to diminish
from west to east late in the day. Total snowfall still appears to
be 2-3 inches across most areas, with the highest totals of 4-5
inches focused along/northwest of the Illinois River. Will continue
the Winter Weather Advisory through 6pm accordingly.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
All models show the strongest lift quickly shifting east of the area
late this afternoon into the early evening, suggesting a rapid end
to the accumulating snow. Will linger chance PoPs across the north
and east through the evening, then will go dry across the board
overnight. Forecast soundings show a loss of ice crystals within
the profile, resulting in a period of light freezing drizzle as the
precip ends.
Monday still appears to be a cool and mostly dry day: however, a few
of the models are showing some light precip with another short-wave
skirting through the area. The GFS is the most bullish with precip,
while the NAM and ECMWF show very little. Given presence of at
least weak lift, will carry slight chance PoPs for rain/snow across
the southern half of the KILX CWA Monday afternoon.
A more significant wave will push into the region on Tuesday,
bringing another round of light precip. Models generally track the
500mb vort max right across central Illinois, resulting in most of
the precip being focused across the northern half of Illinois.
Thermal profiles will be cold enough to support snow initially late
Monday night into Tuesday morning: however, as temperatures climb
into the upper 30s and lower 40s, the snow will transition to a
rain/snow mix or all rain by Tuesday afternoon. Minor snow
accumulations of 1 inch or less are expected during the morning
before the snow mixes with/changes to rain.
After that, the big weather story for the end of the week will be a
pronounced warming trend as upper-level ridging builds across the
Midwest. High temperatures will reach the upper 40s and lower 50s
on Thursday, then will climb even higher into the upper 50s and
lower 60s by Friday. A weak cold front will push through Illinois
on Friday, with 00z Feb 14 models now pulling back on their QPF.
Will still mention low chance PoPs for rain showers with FROPA on
Friday, followed by a return to mild/dry weather next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
Light to moderate snow that has been bringing vsbys down to
1/4-3/4 mile along with ceilings between 500-1500 ft across
central IL past few hours. The back edge of this snow was along a
Burlington, IA to Jacksonville line and HRRR has the snow
diminishing eastward toward the IN border by 21Z. But there is
some wrap around light snow over central/se IA that will affect
northern TAF sites along I-74 through dusk. Could see some patchy
freezing drizzle develop from west to east during late afternoon
and into the evening but coverage too limited to mention at this
time. SE winds 10-17 kts and gusts of 18-25 kts this afternoon to
diminish to around 10 kts this evening and then 5-8 kts overnight
and veer SSE. SSW winds 5-9 kts expected Monday morning. Kept low
clouds of MVFR to IFR around tonight into Monday morning with
vsbys becoming MVFR later this afternoon as snow diminishing and
continues MVFR vsbys with some fog/low level moisture tonight and
linger into Monday morning as winds become lighter.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1045 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
Updated the forecast to address snowfall today and will continue
the winter weather advisory across CWA through 6 pm today. Second
and larger band of light to moderate snow had spread east across
IL by late this morning, with back edge of this snow just west of
CWA. Though more wrap around mainly light snows were over central
and eastern IA and will spread across northern CWA during the
afternoon, keeping them in the snow longer and also higher total
snowfall amounts of 3-4 inches. Central and southeast CWA to see
an additional 1-3 inches rest of today with total of 2-3 inches,
though heavier bands of snow from Springfield south to Litchfield
and east toward Taylorville and Shelbyville. Southeast winds of
10-20 mph and gusts to around 25 mph to continue some blowing and
drifting snow. Temps at 1030 am were in the upper teens and lower
20s. Highs this afternoon in the mid to upper 20s look on track.
540 dm 500 mb low over east central Iowa to track into northern/ne
IL by 00Z/6 pm today and then into nw Ohio by 06Z/midnight
tonight. This feature associated with the wrap around snows in
central/eastern IA that moves across the northern CWA during the
afternoon. Otherwise back edge of snow to spread eastward across
central/se IL during the afternoon and some patchy freezing
drizzle appears in sw CWA late this afternoon and rest of CWA
during tonight as we lose mid level clouds.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
08z/2am water vapor imagery shows a vigorous short-wave trough over
eastern Nebraska. A narrow band of snow has developed well in
advance of this feature across the central sections of Iowa and
Illinois in association with strong 700-500mb layer frontogenesis.
Latest radar imagery/surface obs show the snow band centered along a
Galesburg...to Lincoln...to Marshall line. This band is expected to
gradually lift northward over the next few hours, as frontogenetic
forcing shifts northward and weakens. Snowfall of one half inch or
less will be likely with this initial burst of snow early this
morning. The main precip event will hold off until later this
morning as stronger/more widespread synoptic lift associated with
the short-wave arrives. HRRR seems to be handling the current
precip field better than any other model, so have followed its
solution closely in the short-term. It shows snow rapidly
developing in advance of the approaching wave and spreading eastward
into central Illinois between 15z and 18z. Based on speed of wave,
a 4-5 hour period of light to moderate snow is expected from late
morning through mid-afternoon before the precip begins to diminish
from west to east late in the day. Total snowfall still appears to
be 2-3 inches across most areas, with the highest totals of 4-5
inches focused along/northwest of the Illinois River. Will continue
the Winter Weather Advisory through 6pm accordingly.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
All models show the strongest lift quickly shifting east of the area
late this afternoon into the early evening, suggesting a rapid end
to the accumulating snow. Will linger chance PoPs across the north
and east through the evening, then will go dry across the board
overnight. Forecast soundings show a loss of ice crystals within
the profile, resulting in a period of light freezing drizzle as the
precip ends.
Monday still appears to be a cool and mostly dry day: however, a few
of the models are showing some light precip with another short-wave
skirting through the area. The GFS is the most bullish with precip,
while the NAM and ECMWF show very little. Given presence of at
least weak lift, will carry slight chance PoPs for rain/snow across
the southern half of the KILX CWA Monday afternoon.
A more significant wave will push into the region on Tuesday,
bringing another round of light precip. Models generally track the
500mb vort max right across central Illinois, resulting in most of
the precip being focused across the northern half of Illinois.
Thermal profiles will be cold enough to support snow initially late
Monday night into Tuesday morning: however, as temperatures climb
into the upper 30s and lower 40s, the snow will transition to a
rain/snow mix or all rain by Tuesday afternoon. Minor snow
accumulations of 1 inch or less are expected during the morning
before the snow mixes with/changes to rain.
After that, the big weather story for the end of the week will be a
pronounced warming trend as upper-level ridging builds across the
Midwest. High temperatures will reach the upper 40s and lower 50s
on Thursday, then will climb even higher into the upper 50s and
lower 60s by Friday. A weak cold front will push through Illinois
on Friday, with 00z Feb 14 models now pulling back on their QPF.
Will still mention low chance PoPs for rain showers with FROPA on
Friday, followed by a return to mild/dry weather next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
First wave of snow was pushing into our eastern TAF sites this
morning with a break in the snow through about 15z before another
round of snow and IFR cigs moves in for the rest of the day.
Latest surface observations to our west indicates cigs improve
to low VFR with occasional MVFR cigs/vsbys in very light snow.
However, across western Iowa into northwest Missouri, a band
of light to moderate snow was located and based on the present
movement of the snow, it will push into our western areas between
14z-16z, and over the far eastern TAF sites by 18z. Cigs and Vsbys
will lower to IFR to occasional VLIFR where some of the heavier
bands of snow setup. The snow is expected to taper to flurries
by late afternoon or early this evening and as the precip starts
to edge off to our east, there is the threat for some patchy
freezing drizzle this evening, mainly from 00z-06z. Due to the
patchy nature of the precip this evening, will not include in
the TAFs at this time, but something to keep an eye on with
later forecasts today.
Southeast winds of 12 to 17 kts are expected today with a few
gusts around 23 kts into this afternoon with winds turning
more into a southerly direction tonight with speeds of 10 kts
or less.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
505 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
08z/2am water vapor imagery shows a vigorous short-wave trough over
eastern Nebraska. A narrow band of snow has developed well in
advance of this feature across the central sections of Iowa and
Illinois in association with strong 700-500mb layer frontogenesis.
Latest radar imagery/surface obs show the snow band centered along a
Galesburg...to Lincoln...to Marshall line. This band is expected to
gradually lift northward over the next few hours, as frontogenetic
forcing shifts northward and weakens. Snowfall of one half inch or
less will be likely with this initial burst of snow early this
morning. The main precip event will hold off until later this
morning as stronger/more widespread synoptic lift associated with
the short-wave arrives. HRRR seems to be handling the current
precip field better than any other model, so have followed its
solution closely in the short-term. It shows snow rapidly
developing in advance of the approaching wave and spreading eastward
into central Illinois between 15z and 18z. Based on speed of wave,
a 4-5 hour period of light to moderate snow is expected from late
morning through mid-afternoon before the precip begins to diminish
from west to east late in the day. Total snowfall still appears to
be 2-3 inches across most areas, with the highest totals of 4-5
inches focused along/northwest of the Illinois River. Will continue
the Winter Weather Advisory through 6pm accordingly.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
All models show the strongest lift quickly shifting east of the area
late this afternoon into the early evening, suggesting a rapid end
to the accumulating snow. Will linger chance PoPs across the north
and east through the evening, then will go dry across the board
overnight. Forecast soundings show a loss of ice crystals within
the profile, resulting in a period of light freezing drizzle as the
precip ends.
Monday still appears to be a cool and mostly dry day: however, a few
of the models are showing some light precip with another short-wave
skirting through the area. The GFS is the most bullish with precip,
while the NAM and ECMWF show very little. Given presence of at
least weak lift, will carry slight chance PoPs for rain/snow across
the southern half of the KILX CWA Monday afternoon.
A more significant wave will push into the region on Tuesday,
bringing another round of light precip. Models generally track the
500mb vort max right across central Illinois, resulting in most of
the precip being focused across the northern half of Illinois.
Thermal profiles will be cold enough to support snow initially late
Monday night into Tuesday morning: however, as temperatures climb
into the upper 30s and lower 40s, the snow will transition to a
rain/snow mix or all rain by Tuesday afternoon. Minor snow
accumulations of 1 inch or less are expected during the morning
before the snow mixes with/changes to rain.
After that, the big weather story for the end of the week will be a
pronounced warming trend as upper-level ridging builds across the
Midwest. High temperatures will reach the upper 40s and lower 50s
on Thursday, then will climb even higher into the upper 50s and
lower 60s by Friday. A weak cold front will push through Illinois
on Friday, with 00z Feb 14 models now pulling back on their QPF.
Will still mention low chance PoPs for rain showers with FROPA on
Friday, followed by a return to mild/dry weather next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
First wave of snow was pushing into our eastern TAF sites this
morning with a break in the snow through about 15z before another
round of snow and IFR cigs moves in for the rest of the day.
Latest surface observations to our west indicates cigs improve
to low VFR with occasional MVFR cigs/vsbys in very light snow.
However, across western Iowa into northwest Missouri, a band
of light to moderate snow was located and based on the present
movement of the snow, it will push into our western areas between
14z-16z, and over the far eastern TAF sites by 18z. Cigs and Vsbys
will lower to IFR to occasional VLIFR where some of the heavier
bands of snow setup. The snow is expected to taper to flurries
by late afternoon or early this evening and as the precip starts
to edge off to our east, there is the threat for some patchy
freezing drizzle this evening, mainly from 00z-06z. Due to the
patchy nature of the precip this evening, will not include in
the TAFs at this time, but something to keep an eye on with
later forecasts today.
Southeast winds of 12 to 17 kts are expected today with a few
gusts around 23 kts into this afternoon with winds turning
more into a southerly direction tonight with speeds of 10 kts
or less.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
324 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
08z/2am water vapor imagery shows a vigorous short-wave trough over
eastern Nebraska. A narrow band of snow has developed well in
advance of this feature across the central sections of Iowa and
Illinois in association with strong 700-500mb layer frontogenesis.
Latest radar imagery/surface obs show the snow band centered along a
Galesburg...to Lincoln...to Marshall line. This band is expected to
gradually lift northward over the next few hours, as frontogenetic
forcing shifts northward and weakens. Snowfall of one half inch or
less will be likely with this initial burst of snow early this
morning. The main precip event will hold off until later this
morning as stronger/more widespread synoptic lift associated with
the short-wave arrives. HRRR seems to be handling the current
precip field better than any other model, so have followed its
solution closely in the short-term. It shows snow rapidly
developing in advance of the approaching wave and spreading eastward
into central Illinois between 15z and 18z. Based on speed of wave,
a 4-5 hour period of light to moderate snow is expected from late
morning through mid-afternoon before the precip begins to diminish
from west to east late in the day. Total snowfall still appears to
be 2-3 inches across most areas, with the highest totals of 4-5
inches focused along/northwest of the Illinois River. Will continue
the Winter Weather Advisory through 6pm accordingly.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
All models show the strongest lift quickly shifting east of the area
late this afternoon into the early evening, suggesting a rapid end
to the accumulating snow. Will linger chance PoPs across the north
and east through the evening, then will go dry across the board
overnight. Forecast soundings show a loss of ice crystals within
the profile, resulting in a period of light freezing drizzle as the
precip ends.
Monday still appears to be a cool and mostly dry day: however, a few
of the models are showing some light precip with another short-wave
skirting through the area. The GFS is the most bullish with precip,
while the NAM and ECMWF show very little. Given presence of at
least weak lift, will carry slight chance PoPs for rain/snow across
the southern half of the KILX CWA Monday afternoon.
A more significant wave will push into the region on Tuesday,
bringing another round of light precip. Models generally track the
500mb vort max right across central Illinois, resulting in most of
the precip being focused across the northern half of Illinois.
Thermal profiles will be cold enough to support snow initially late
Monday night into Tuesday morning: however, as temperatures climb
into the upper 30s and lower 40s, the snow will transition to a
rain/snow mix or all rain by Tuesday afternoon. Minor snow
accumulations of 1 inch or less are expected during the morning
before the snow mixes with/changes to rain.
After that, the big weather story for the end of the week will be a
pronounced warming trend as upper-level ridging builds across the
Midwest. High temperatures will reach the upper 40s and lower 50s
on Thursday, then will climb even higher into the upper 50s and
lower 60s by Friday. A weak cold front will push through Illinois
on Friday, with 00z Feb 14 models now pulling back on their QPF.
Will still mention low chance PoPs for rain showers with FROPA on
Friday, followed by a return to mild/dry weather next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016
Snow has begun in western parts of IL, but radar shows it is along
a narrow band. Believe this is just acting to moisten the lower
levels some. So thinking is not much snow will occur with this, so
will just have a TEMPO group at all sites overnight for 2hrs of
light snow with MVFR vis and cigs 3.5kft or above. Then as the
main wave reaches the area in the morning, more snow arrives,
starting around 15z at SPI and PIA with IFR vis and cigs in the
MVFR range. Based on HiRes models, that pockets of more intense
snowfall will be possible so will have TEMPO group at all sites
for vis below 1sm and cigs below 1kft...LIFR conditions. These
conditions will be in the late morning in the west to afternoon in
the east. As snow departs to the east, conditions will gradually
improve during the afternoon and then snow should completely stop
in the evening hours, though PIA and BMI may see light snow last
longer, being closer to the main mid level wave. Winds will be
southeast through the period. Wind speeds will around 10kts overnight
and into the morning hours, but then increase tomorrow with gusts
over 20kts. Once the snow begins to taper off, speeds will
decrease and winds will become more south-southeast.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
250 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
.UPDATE...
LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
CENTRAL INDIANA WILL BE UNDER AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE
FIRST WILL START IMPACTING THE AREA THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN 1 TO
4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL BY TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE SECOND
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY...BUT RAIN MIXING IN WILL
LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING MIXED
PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. FURTHER OUT...A WARM UP CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1034 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
CURRENTLY SEEING A LULL IN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. A RELATIVELY DRY COLUMN HAS KEPT MOST OF THE SNOW THAT
FELL EARLIER THIS MORNING FROM ACCUMULATING EXCEPT IN THE HEAVIEST
BAND WHERE UP TO HALF AN INCH WAS REPORTED. A COMPACT UPPER WAVE
SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD
THE AREA TODAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH. RADAR TRENDS AND HI RES GUIDANCE INDICATE ACCUMULATING SNOW
WILL MOVE BACK INTO WESTERN INDIANA STARTING AROUND NOON AND
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THERE. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF BOTH THE RAP
AND HRRR CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND THEY SHOW A DECENT SWATH OF 2-3 INCHES
FROM AROUND I-70 SOUTH WITH 3-4 INCHES SOUTH OF A BLOOMINGTON TO
COLUMBUS LINE AND PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED 5 INCH AMOUNTS. BASED ON
THIS HAVE UPPED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE
NORTHEAST...2 TO 3 CENTRAL AND 3 TO 4 SOUTH WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. RAP AND HRRR BOTH SHOW HEAVIEST SNOW STARTING AROUND 2-3
PM AND MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND 6 PM...BUT HAVE GIVEN THIS
A BIT OF CUSHION ON EITHER SIDE IN THE TIMING IN THE WSW. MADE NO
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE ADVISORY BUT DID BUMP UP
AMOUNTS AND ADDED TIMING OF HEAVIEST SNOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF
THE FIRST SYSTEM FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ON TUESDAY.
ISENTROPIC LIFT ABRUPTLY CUTS OFF ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER MON
03Z AS MOISTURE DECREASES. SO...RAPIDLY DECREASED POPS FROM WEST
TO EAST AFTER SUN 06Z WITH JUST A FEW ADDITIONAL TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT UPPER WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH ON
MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT A LULL IN ACTIVITY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
JUST A BRIEF SPIKE IN PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY EVENING AS THAT
UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH...BUT MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED. SO...WILL
ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
FINALLY...A THIRD DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE MORE OF A MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT THOUGH
AS TEMPERATURES TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL SEE A TURN OVER TO SNOW...WHILE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS CAN EXPECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX. DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...NORTHERN PORTIONS WILL SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX...WHILE THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL RECEIVE MAINLY RAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER AS AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. BUILDS EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THIS WILL
MOVE ON TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY FRIDAY. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS LOW AND PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH FRIDAY.
FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
MODELS INDICATE LOW CHANCES OF A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AND
A FEW DEGREES COOLER. LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
BRING LOW CHANCES OF RAIN AGAIN BY SUNDAY. STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL
INITIALIZATION TEMPERATURES IN MOST CASES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 141800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY TONIGHT.
AREA OF SNOW OVER ILLINOIS WILL SPREAD EAST INTO INDIANA AS AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR REGION. EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON
AND STILL MOSTLY IFR EARLY TONIGHT AS SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH. CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LATER
TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS 1 TO 2 THOUSAND AND VISIBILITIES GRADUALLY
IMPROVING TO 6 MILES AS SOME SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS ALOFT.
EVEN THOUGH MODELS INDICATE SOME DRYING ALOFT BY MONDAY...A LOW
LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP CEILINGS MVFR THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS WILL BE THE RULE EARLY ON...
BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS LATE TODAY AND SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
5 TO 8 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR INZ028-
029-035>037-043>047-051>056-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TDUD/CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1200 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
CENTRAL INDIANA WILL BE UNDER AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE
FIRST WILL START IMPACTING THE AREA THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN 1 TO
4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL BY TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE SECOND
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY...BUT RAIN MIXING IN WILL
LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING MIXED
PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. FURTHER OUT...A WARM UP CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1034 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
CURRENTLY SEEING A LULL IN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. A RELATIVELY DRY COLUMN HAS KEPT MOST OF THE SNOW THAT
FELL EARLIER THIS MORNING FROM ACCUMULATING EXCEPT IN THE HEAVIEST
BAND WHERE UP TO HALF AN INCH WAS REPORTED. A COMPACT UPPER WAVE
SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD
THE AREA TODAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH. RADAR TRENDS AND HI RES GUIDANCE INDICATE ACCUMULATING SNOW
WILL MOVE BACK INTO WESTERN INDIANA STARTING AROUND NOON AND
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THERE. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF BOTH THE RAP
AND HRRR CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND THEY SHOW A DECENT SWATH OF 2-3 INCHES
FROM AROUND I-70 SOUTH WITH 3-4 INCHES SOUTH OF A BLOOMINGTON TO
COLUMBUS LINE AND PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED 5 INCH AMOUNTS. BASED ON
THIS HAVE UPPED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE
NORTHEAST...2 TO 3 CENTRAL AND 3 TO 4 SOUTH WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. RAP AND HRRR BOTH SHOW HEAVIEST SNOW STARTING AROUND 2-3
PM AND MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND 6 PM...BUT HAVE GIVEN THIS
A BIT OF CUSHION ON EITHER SIDE IN THE TIMING IN THE WSW. MADE NO
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE ADVISORY BUT DID BUMP UP
AMOUNTS AND ADDED TIMING OF HEAVIEST SNOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF
THE FIRST SYSTEM FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ON TUESDAY.
ISENTROPIC LIFT ABRUPTLY CUTS OFF ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER MON
03Z AS MOISTURE DECREASES. SO...RAPIDLY DECREASED POPS FROM WEST
TO EAST AFTER SUN 06Z WITH JUST A FEW ADDITIONAL TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT UPPER WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH ON
MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT A LULL IN ACTIVITY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
JUST A BRIEF SPIKE IN PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY EVENING AS THAT
UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH...BUT MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED. SO...WILL
ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
FINALLY...A THIRD DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE MORE OF A MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT THOUGH
AS TEMPERATURES TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL SEE A TURN OVER TO SNOW...WHILE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS CAN EXPECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX. DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...NORTHERN PORTIONS WILL SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX...WHILE THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL RECEIVE MAINLY RAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY|/...
ISSUED AT 309 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
PRIMARY FOCUS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A FEBRUARY THAW
AS THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
FINALLY SHIFTS EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE TO ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS AWAY TO THE EAST . NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE LINGERING FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THIS SETUP...BUT WILL LEAVE DRY AT THIS TIME WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ASSERTING ITS INFLUENCE BY LATE DAY.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND
BY EARLY FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES BY FRIDAY. A STRONG S/SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THE HIGH
TO THE EAST AND THE LOW TO THE NORTHWEST...RESULTING IN WINDY
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AS STRONG WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT LATE
FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIP FOR LATE WEEKEND.
HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 BY FRIDAY...REMAINING
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 141800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY TONIGHT.
AREA OF SNOW OVER ILLINOIS WILL SPREAD EAST INTO INDIANA AS AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR REGION. EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON
AND STILL MOSTLY IFR EARLY TONIGHT AS SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH. CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LATER
TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS 1 TO 2 THOUSAND AND VISIBILITIES GRADUALLY
IMPROVING TO 6 MILES AS SOME SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS ALOFT.
EVEN THOUGH MODELS INDICATE SOME DRYING ALOFT BY MONDAY...A LOW
LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP CEILINGS MVFR THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS WILL BE THE RULE EARLY ON...
BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS LATE TODAY AND SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
5 TO 8 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR INZ028-
029-035>037-043>047-051>056-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TDUD/CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1051 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
CENTRAL INDIANA WILL BE UNDER AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE
FIRST WILL START IMPACTING THE AREA THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN 1 TO
4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL BY TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE SECOND
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY...BUT RAIN MIXING IN WILL
LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING MIXED
PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. FURTHER OUT...A WARM UP CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1034 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
CURRENTLY SEEING A LULL IN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. A RELATIVELY DRY COLUMN HAS KEPT MOST OF THE SNOW THAT
FELL EARLIER THIS MORNING FROM ACCUMULATING EXCEPT IN THE HEAVIEST
BAND WHERE UP TO HALF AN INCH WAS REPORTED. A COMPACT UPPER WAVE
SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD
THE AREA TODAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH. RADAR TRENDS AND HI RES GUIDANCE INDICATE ACCUMULATING SNOW
WILL MOVE BACK INTO WESTERN INDIANA STARTING AROUND NOON AND
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THERE. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF BOTH THE RAP
AND HRRR CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND THEY SHOW A DECENT SWATH OF 2-3 INCHES
FROM AROUND I-70 SOUTH WITH 3-4 INCHES SOUTH OF A BLOOMINGTON TO
COLUMBUS LINE AND PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED 5 INCH AMOUNTS. BASED ON
THIS HAVE UPPED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE
NORTHEAST...2 TO 3 CENTRAL AND 3 TO 4 SOUTH WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. RAP AND HRRR BOTH SHOW HEAVIEST SNOW STARTING AROUND 2-3
PM AND MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND 6 PM...BUT HAVE GIVEN THIS
A BIT OF CUSHION ON EITHER SIDE IN THE TIMING IN THE WSW. MADE NO
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE ADVISORY BUT DID BUMP UP
AMOUNTS AND ADDED TIMING OF HEAVIEST SNOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF
THE FIRST SYSTEM FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ON TUESDAY.
ISENTROPIC LIFT ABRUPTLY CUTS OFF ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER MON
03Z AS MOISTURE DECREASES. SO...RAPIDLY DECREASED POPS FROM WEST
TO EAST AFTER SUN 06Z WITH JUST A FEW ADDITIONAL TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT UPPER WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH ON
MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT A LULL IN ACTIVITY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
JUST A BRIEF SPIKE IN PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY EVENING AS THAT
UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH...BUT MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED. SO...WILL
ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
FINALLY...A THIRD DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE MORE OF A MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT THOUGH
AS TEMPERATURES TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL SEE A TURN OVER TO SNOW...WHILE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS CAN EXPECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX. DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...NORTHERN PORTIONS WILL SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX...WHILE THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL RECEIVE MAINLY RAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY|/...
ISSUED AT 309 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
PRIMARY FOCUS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A FEBRUARY THAW
AS THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
FINALLY SHIFTS EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE TO ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS AWAY TO THE EAST . NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE LINGERING FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THIS SETUP...BUT WILL LEAVE DRY AT THIS TIME WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ASSERTING ITS INFLUENCE BY LATE DAY.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND
BY EARLY FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES BY FRIDAY. A STRONG S/SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THE HIGH
TO THE EAST AND THE LOW TO THE NORTHWEST...RESULTING IN WINDY
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AS STRONG WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT LATE
FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIP FOR LATE WEEKEND.
HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 BY FRIDAY...REMAINING
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 141500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 924 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
IMPROVED VISIBILITIES THROUGH AROUND 17Z TO BETTER MATCH
CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN SNOW...ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MOISTURE STEADILY EXPANDING INTO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR REMAINS WITHIN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. AS LIFT STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE MORNING IT WILL AID LOW
LEVEL SATURATION WITH LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MVFR CATEGORY THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH BOTH KBMG AND KHUF MAY SEE BRIEF DROPS IN SNOW
TO IFR.
MUCH STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ARRIVE BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF A VIGOROUS WAVE ALOFT. COMBINED WITH FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS...EXPECT A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD WITH
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH LIFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HI-RES GUIDANCE
SHIFTS THE BAND OF WIDESPREAD HEAVIER SNOW TO OUR EAST DURING THE
EVENING BUT PRESENCE OF FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS COURTESY OF THE
WAVE ALOFT SHOULD ENABLE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODIC IFR RESTRICTIONS. SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
TO DIMINISH IN THE PREDAWN HOURS BUT MVFR STRATUS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 15KTS THROUGH THE DAY WILL GRADUALLY VEER
TO SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR INZ028-
029-035>037-043>047-051>056-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TDUD/CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
856 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
...Update for showers...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
Radar trends showing that there are some showers across C Kansas
in association with a passing shortwave trough. Threw in some 20
pops in the NE zones as this activity could measure a couple of
hundredths. The HRRR is picking up on this activity as well.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
A shortwave trough embedded in northwest flow will drag a weak
cold front through western Kansas later tonight. West winds at 10
kts ahead of the front and 15 kt northwest winds behind the front
after 09 UTC will prevent temperatures from falling a lot.
Lows should be in the mid to upper 30s in far western Kansas, with
some lower 40s in south central Kansas. Weak surface high pressure
is expected to settle across western Kansas on Tuesday. With
mostly sunny skies, temperatures ought to reach into the 50s, with
perhaps some lower 60s in far southwestern Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
A surface trough will develop in the lee of the Rockies by
Wednesday as the mid level flow increases across the Rockies in
advance of a shortwave trough. Temperatures should warm well into the 60s,
with some lower 70s possible at Liberal and Elkhart. On Thursday, as
the strong shortwave trough approaches, downslope southwest winds will
develop, allowing temperatures to rise into the lower to middle 80s.
Winds will be from the southwest at 20-25 mph, and with relative humidity
as low as 10 percent, fire danger will be high. A cold front will pass
through western Kansas by Thursday night, with highs falling back into
the 60s for Friday, before rebounding back into the upper 60s to
near 70 degrees by Saturday. Another cold front will pass across
western Kansas by Saturday night as an upper level trough moves
southeastward into the upper Midwest. Therefore, highs may drop
back into the 50s to lower 60s for Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Tuesday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 505 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
VFR through Tuesday. A vigorous shortwave will dive SE through the
Missouri Valley into NE Kansas tonight, dragging a cold frontal
passage across SW KS terminals. VFR will persist during the
frontal passage, with only SCT/BKN mid/high clouds. NW wind shift
expected to reach all airports by 06z, with the strongest NW winds
of 15-25 kts expected during the 09-12z Tue time frame. Northerly
850 mb winds increase to 40-50 kts overnight and Tuesday morning.
Nocturnal timing will prevent much of this momentum from reaching
the surface, still some gusts over 30 kts are likely, especially
at KHYS. NW winds diminish quickly Tuesday afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 39 59 33 68 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 37 60 32 69 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 37 63 32 72 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 39 61 33 72 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 37 56 33 63 / 20 0 0 0
P28 42 59 34 70 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Sugden
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Turner
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1120 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 511 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
The latest RAP and NAM isentropic progs continue to show the
better saturation and lift focusing to the east of the forecast
area. With the HRRR handling the shower activity earlier and
taking it out of the area, have reasonable confidence that precip
is pretty much over. Will be sending out an update to the forecast
to reflect this.
&&
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 324 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
08Z water vapor imagery shows a shortwave moving east across NEB and
SD and a weaker wave across AZ and NM. There also appears to be a
shortwave over British Columbia moving towards ID and MT. Surface
observations show a general trough of low pressure across the Great
Plains from west TX to the Canadian boarder as the arctic high
pressure system continues to move east. Locally, surface winds have
generally remained from the east with shallow dry air remaining over
the forecast area noted by the dewpoints still in the single digits.
For today, models show the best forcing and isentropic upglide
occurring now with the shortwave just north of the forecast area.
Once it passes to the east, the warm air advection pattern becomes
focused to the east of the forecast area and should bring an end to
precip chances for the rest of the day. Radar is starting to show
some shower activity developing over eastern KS similar to the HRRR.
RAP forecast soundings hint at some weak elevated instability but
the low level moisture has been slow to move into east central KS.
Will increase chances for precip and mention freezing rain in the
forecast. This activity should be short lived and be moving east of
the area by 8am. Think there should be some sunshine by the
afternoon behind the shortwave. So with some insolation and warm air
moving in from the west, high are forecast to be around 50 to the
mid 50s.
Tonight models show another low amplitude wave moving across the
forecast area with the GFS most aggressive in generating a couple
hundredths of precip. Model progs of forcing are rather disorganized
and continue to show deep layer moisture lacking. Because of this
think any precip is likely to remain a trace event. Precip type is
somewhat uncertain in that both the GFS and NAM forecast soundings
show a decent warm nose of +3 to +5 C. So snow is unlikely, and with
the dry air in place within low levels of the atmosphere and a
westerly wind this afternoon and evening unlikely to advect low
level moisture into the area, drizzle does not look much more
likely. The GFS would suggest temps are warm enough for any precip
to be liquid. Meanwhile the NAM has surface temps around freezing
but a lot more dry air to overcome. Think the NAM is probably
handling the thermal profile within the boundary layer better than
the GFS so have lows in the lower 30s for tonight. As for precip
type, will stick with sprinkles which possible could freeze on
elevated surfaces if there is not to much low level dry air.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 324 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
Another shortwave in the northwest flow aloft is forecasted to track
over the area Monday morning, but should be mostly dry. The next in
the parade of shortwaves will pass over the area Tuesday morning,
and like the previous waves will lack any appreciable low level
moisture. Also, the better mid level moisture will be centered over
IA. There is a chance there may be enough precipitation falling into
this dry layer for rain to reach the surface. The better chances for
this light rain will be mainly over far northeast KS, and amounts
look to be rather minor. Luckily there is a deep enough layer of
above freezing temperatures even after saturation therefore frozen
precipitation should not be an issue. Beyond that an upper ridge
will build eastward over the central US causing temperatures to warm
well above normal. By Thursday the guidance shows highs around 70,
but given the models tendencies to underestimate these situations
have increased the highs by a few degrees. There will be some
concern for elevated fire danger on Thursday and Friday given the
warm temperatures and gusty winds.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1120 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
VFR conditions are expected through the period. Mid-level clouds
will move through the area overnight before skies begin to clear
tomorrow morning.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Wolters
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Heller
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1115 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 912 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
WV imagery indicates a weak upper level shortwave trough sliding
southeast across the Central Plains. Meanwhile, a secondary upper
level shortwave is moving southeast out of the Northern Rockies
of western Montana. Near the surface, a weak area of high pressure
is moving slowly southeast across eastern Colorado.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
Cold front moving through the area early this morning bumping winds
briefly behind the boundary to gusts in the 20 knots range
locally. The larger observation picture and local GFS MOS
guidance suggests winds will quickly become lighter and westerly
this morning. Stratus will be mainly confined to the extreme
south central counties and based on the HRRR is likely to exit by
11 or 12 UTC. The consensus of most of the models data for this
afternoon points toward highs in the mid to upper 50s; perhaps
pushing 60 degrees along the Oklahoma line. However the model
variance is quite low lending to better confidence. Light winds
and cloudy skies are likely tonight as a secondary shortwave seen
for several runs now, rotates through the region. The GFS is the
only model producing any measurable QPF while others strongly
suggestive of a completely dry passage. The models are a few
degrees warmer than most MOS solutions.
.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
The remainder of the week is a story of a strong warming trend,
incrementally each day, to highs likely in the upper 70s and low
80s by Thursday. With such warm temperatures by Thursday,
critical fire weather may become a concern if gusts are
sufficient in the afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early
Monday morning. Light and variable winds will persist across
southwest and central Kansas through tonight as surface high
pressure moves southeast across the Western High Plains into
western Oklahoma.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 56 32 61 37 / 10 10 0 0
GCK 57 31 63 35 / 10 10 0 0
EHA 59 33 65 37 / 0 10 0 0
LBL 58 32 65 35 / 0 10 0 0
HYS 54 32 57 36 / 10 10 0 0
P28 59 34 64 38 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...JJohnson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
913 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 912 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
WV imagery indicates a weak upper level shortwave trough sliding
southeast across the Central Plains. Meanwhile, a secondary upper
level shortwave is moving southeast out of the Northern Rockies
of western Montana. Near the surface, a weak area of high pressure
is moving slowly southeast across eastern Colorado.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
Cold front moving through the area early this morning bumping winds
briefly behind the boundary to gusts in the 20 knots range
locally. The larger observation picture and local GFS MOS
guidance suggests winds will quickly become lighter and westerly
this morning. Stratus will be mainly confined to the extreme
south central counties and based on the HRRR is likely to exit by
11 or 12 UTC. The consensus of most of the models data for this
afternoon points toward highs in the mid to upper 50s; perhaps
pushing 60 degrees along the Oklahoma line. However the model
variance is quite low lending to better confidence. Light winds
and cloudy skies are likely tonight as a secondary shortwave seen
for several runs now, rotates through the region. The GFS is the
only model producing any measurable QPF while others strongly
suggestive of a completely dry passage. The models are a few
degrees warmer than most MOS solutions.
.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
The remainder of the week is a story of a strong warming trend,
incrementally each day, to highs likely in the upper 70s and low
80s by Thursday. With such warm temperatures by Thursday,
critical fire weather may become a concern if gusts are
sufficient in the afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Monday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
Winds will be northwesterly at around 10 knots this morning but will
become light and variable as the day progresses. A weak upper disturbance
moving over the region tonight could bring a few sprinkles or flurries
but cigs should remain VFR. By very late in the period, winds will become
northwesterly again and could increase into the 10-15 knot range.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 56 32 61 37 / 10 10 0 0
GCK 57 31 63 35 / 10 10 0 0
EHA 58 33 65 37 / 0 10 0 0
LBL 58 32 65 35 / 0 10 0 0
HYS 53 32 57 36 / 10 10 0 0
P28 59 34 64 38 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Gerard
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
530 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
...Updated aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
Cold front moving through the area early this morning bumping winds
briefly behind the boundary to gusts in the 20 knots range
locally. The larger observation picture and local GFS MOS
guidance suggests winds will quickly become lighter and westerly
this morning. Stratus will be mainly confined to the extreme
south central counties and based on the HRRR is likely to exit by
11 or 12 UTC. The consensus of most of the models data for this
afternoon points toward highs in the mid to upper 50s; perhaps
pushing 60 degrees along the Oklahoma line. However the model
variance is quite low lending to better confidence. Light winds
and cloudy skies are likely tonight as a secondary shortwave seen
for several runs now, rotates through the region. The GFS is the
only model producing any measurable QPF while others strongly
suggestive of a completely dry passage. The models are a few
degrees warmer than most MOS solutions.
.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
The remainder of the week is a story of a strong warming trend,
incrementally each day, to highs likely in the upper 70s and low
80s by Thursday. With such warm temperatures by Thursday,
critical fire weather may become a concern if gusts are
sufficient in the afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Monday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
Winds will be northwesterly at around 10 knots this morning but will
become light and variable as the day progresses. A weak upper disturbance
moving over the region tonight could bring a few sprinkles or flurries
but cigs should remain VFR. By very late in the period, winds will become
northwesterly again and could increase into the 10-15 knot range.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 56 32 61 37 / 10 10 0 0
GCK 57 31 63 35 / 10 10 0 0
EHA 58 33 65 37 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 58 32 65 35 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 53 32 57 36 / 10 10 0 10
P28 59 34 64 38 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Gerard
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
511 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 511 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
The latest RAP and NAM isentropic progs continue to show the
better saturation and lift focusing to the east of the forecast
area. With the HRRR handling the shower activity earlier and
taking it out of the area, have reasonable confidence that precip
is pretty much over. Will be sending out an update to the forecast
to reflect this.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 324 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
08Z water vapor imagery shows a shortwave moving east across NEB and
SD and a weaker wave across AZ and NM. There also appears to be a
shortwave over British Columbia moving towards ID and MT. Surface
observations show a general trough of low pressure across the Great
Plains from west TX to the Canadian boarder as the arctic high
pressure system continues to move east. Locally, surface winds have
generally remained from the east with shallow dry air remaining over
the forecast area noted by the dewpoints still in the single digits.
For today, models show the best forcing and isentropic upglide
occurring now with the shortwave just north of the forecast area.
Once it passes to the east, the warm air advection pattern becomes
focused to the east of the forecast area and should bring an end to
precip chances for the rest of the day. Radar is starting to show
some shower activity developing over eastern KS similar to the HRRR.
RAP forecast soundings hint at some weak elevated instability but
the low level moisture has been slow to move into east central KS.
Will increase chances for precip and mention freezing rain in the
forecast. This activity should be short lived and be moving east of
the area by 8am. Think there should be some sunshine by the
afternoon behind the shortwave. So with some insolation and warm air
moving in from the west, high are forecast to be around 50 to the
mid 50s.
Tonight models show another low amplitude wave moving across the
forecast area with the GFS most aggressive in generating a couple
hundredths of precip. Model progs of forcing are rather disorganized
and continue to show deep layer moisture lacking. Because of this
think any precip is likely to remain a trace event. Precip type is
somewhat uncertain in that both the GFS and NAM forecast soundings
show a decent warm nose of +3 to +5 C. So snow is unlikely, and with
the dry air in place within low levels of the atmosphere and a
westerly wind this afternoon and evening unlikely to advect low
level moisture into the area, drizzle does not look much more
likely. The GFS would suggest temps are warm enough for any precip
to be liquid. Meanwhile the NAM has surface temps around freezing
but a lot more dry air to overcome. Think the NAM is probably
handling the thermal profile within the boundary layer better than
the GFS so have lows in the lower 30s for tonight. As for precip
type, will stick with sprinkles which possible could freeze on
elevated surfaces if there is not to much low level dry air.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 324 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
Another shortwave in the northwest flow aloft is forecasted to track
over the area Monday morning, but should be mostly dry. The next in
the parade of shortwaves will pass over the area Tuesday morning,
and like the previous waves will lack any appreciable low level
moisture. Also, the better mid level moisture will be centered over
IA. There is a chance there may be enough precipitation falling into
this dry layer for rain to reach the surface. The better chances for
this light rain will be mainly over far northeast KS, and amounts
look to be rather minor. Luckily there is a deep enough layer of
above freezing temperatures even after saturation therefore frozen
precipitation should not be an issue. Beyond that an upper ridge
will build eastward over the central US causing temperatures to warm
well above normal. By Thursday the guidance shows highs around 70,
but given the models tendencies to underestimate these situations
have increased the highs by a few degrees. There will be some
concern for elevated fire danger on Thursday and Friday given the
warm temperatures and gusty winds.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 511 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
Models continue to trend drier in the low levels and with forcing
for precip diminishing, VFR conditions should prevail through
tonight.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Wolters
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
316 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
Cold front moving through the area early this morning bumping winds
briefly behind the boundary to gusts in the 20 knots range
locally. The larger observation picture and local GFS MOS
guidance suggests winds will quickly become lighter and westerly
this morning. Stratus will be mainly confined to the extreme
south central counties and based on the HRRR is likely to exit by
11 or 12 UTC. The consensus of most of the models data for this
afternoon points toward highs in the mid to upper 50s; perhaps
pushing 60 degrees along the Oklahoma line. However the model
variance is quite low lending to better confidence. Light winds
and cloudy skies are likely tonight as a secondary shortwave seen
for several runs now, rotates through the region. The GFS is the
only model producing any measurable QPF while others strongly
suggestive of a completely dry passage. The models are a few
degrees warmer than most MOS solutions.
.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
The remainder of the week is a story of a strong warming trend,
incrementally each day, to highs likely in the upper 70s and low
80s by Thursday. With such warm temperatures by Thursday,
critical fire weather may become a concern if gusts are
sufficient in the afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Sunday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
VFR conditions will persist through the remainder of this TAF
period. A cold front moving through the area will create
moderately gusty northwest winds through the morning hours that
will weaken to light westerly with the loss of the stronger
gradient later in the morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 56 31 62 36 / 0 10 0 0
GCK 57 30 64 35 / 0 10 0 0
EHA 58 32 66 36 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 58 30 66 36 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 52 31 58 36 / 10 10 0 0
P28 58 33 64 39 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
651 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE ALONG THE W COAST
OF THE CONUS/CANADA AND A DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER CNTRL/ERN N AMERICA
WITH AXIS GENERALLY FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO THE LWR MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. SHORTWAVE TROF THAT BROUGHT SOME -SN TO THE AREA LAST
NIGHT/THIS MORNING HAS SHIFTED E OF THE AREA. KGRB RADAR AND SFC
OBS/WEBCAMS SHOWED A BAND OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW ALONG SFC TROF THAT
MOVED OUT ACROSS LAKE MI LATE LAST NIGHT/THIS MORNING. AT LEAST AT
LOCATIONS WITH WEBCAMS...IT DID NOT APPEAR THAT THERE WAS MORE THAN
2-3 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT...BUT THERE CERTAINLY
COULD HAVE BEEN SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. SOME -SN STILL LINGERS
IN THE VCNTY OF THE WEAKENING TROF WHICH IS NOW INTO LUCE COUNTY. TO
THE W...THERE HAVE BEEN SCT FLURRIES...BUT LATEST KMQT RADAR
SUGGESTS THE FLURRIES HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED. UPSTREAM...NEXT
SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST IS IN NRN MANITOBA/NRN SASKATCHEWAN.
A GENERALLY QUIET EVENING IS EXPECTED. LINGERING -SN OVER THE FAR E
WILL END THIS EVENING AS SFC TROF DRIFTS E AND WINDS BECOME WSW
ACROSS NRN LAKE MI. THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES ELSEWHERE...
ESPECIALLY IF SMALL AREA OF -SHSN/FLURRIES OVER NE MN HOLDS
TOGETHER. OVERNIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE IN MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN DROPS
SE...THERE IS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE DEPTH AND DEEP LAYER FORCING
PER QVECTORS INTO THE WRN FCST AREA. WITH MOST MODELS GENERATING
SOME PCPN...GRADUALLY INCREASED POPS THRU THE CHC CATEGORY OVER THE
W OVERNIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...WHILE CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE
BOARD TONIGHT AND HOLD TEMPS UP...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT CLOUDS
COULD BREAK FOR A TIME OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA
WHERE LIGHT DOWNSLOPING OCCURS. THE BIAS CORRECTED REGIONAL AND
GLOBAL CANADIAN MODELS WHICH ARE OFTEN SUPERIOR PERFORMERS WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING INDICATE MIN TEMPS DOWN INTO THE LWR SINGLE
DIGITS FROM PARTS OF MENOMINEE COUNTY EASTWARD...WITH SOME TEMPS SUB
ZERO TEMPS IN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY. FOR NOW...LOWERED TEMPS SLIGHTLY
DOWN TOWARD 10F OVER PORTIONS OF THE ERN FCST AREA.
ON TUE...AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE SWINGS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REACHING THE KEWEENAW LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN AND EXITING THE SE FCST AREA LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. BAND OF
DEEP LAYER FORCING/DEEP MOISTURE WHICH BEGINS TO ARRIVE OVER THE W
LATE TONIGHT SHIFTS ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON TUE. AS A RESULT...MOST
AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME -SN AT SOME POINT TUE. UTILIZED CHC POPS.
EXPECT A BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW TO ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT AS IT DROPS
SSE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO UPPER MI AS 850MB TEMPS ARE JUST
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCEMENT. AS A RESULT...INCLUDED A
SHORT PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND INTO WRN/NRN
UPPER MI WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES NEAR THE LAKE.
ELSEWHERE...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE UNDER 1 INCH. PATCHY BLSN
SHOULD DEVELOP CLOSE TO THE LAKE FROM THE KEWEENAW EASTWARD AFTER
FROPA. WITH AN OPPORTUNITY TO WARM UP PRIOR TO FROPA...TEMPS SHOULD
TOP OUT AROUND 30F ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016
A 500MB TROUGH WILL BE SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE E THIRD OF THE
NATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER BLAST OF COLD AIR TO SWING
IN ON N WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS AVERAGING
-16C. ACCOMPANYING THIS COLD AIR WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND INCREASED NNW WINDS...WHICH WILL COMBINE TO HELP CREATE
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THROUGH WHITEFISH
POINT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT-MODERATE
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IN THE HWO BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH W-E WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS OVERHEAD. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS.
LOOK FOR THE 500MB RIDGE CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE W SEABOARD TO
SHIFT E...AND BE CENTERED ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES THURSDAY MORNING.
IT WILL BE A RACE TO SEE HOW LOW TEMPERATURES CAN FALL BEFORE HIGH
CLOUDS NEAR FROM THE NW AND WAA TAKES COLD ON INCREASED S-SW WINDS
THURSDAY MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND -8C BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. SINGLE DIGIT LOWS STILL LOOK REASONABLE. THE WAA WILL ALSO
PUT AN END TO THE LES OFF E LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE 500MB RIDGE WILL SWIFTLY SLIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/THURSDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR A TEMPORARY BREAK FROM
THE SNOW...ALTHOUGH WAA SNOW MAY RETURN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM
FRONT THURSDAY EVENING. MIXED PRECIP WILL BE A CONCERN. BY 00Z
FRIDAY 850MB WINDS OUT OF THE S AT 40-55KT WILL HELP USHER 850MB
TEMPS OF -3 TO +3C OVER THE CWA. THERE ARE ENOUGH DIFFERENCES IN THE
FCST MODELS AT THIS DISTANCE TO GIVE MODERATE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
SPECIFIC PRECIP TYPES...ALTHOUGH SNOW...FREEZING RAIN...AND RAIN
WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE AT SOME POINT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP IN THE HWO.
THAT WILL BE UNTIL SFC TEMPS WARM UP ENOUGH FOR MOST OF THE PRECIP
TO FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z GFS WERE FAIRLY
IN LINE WITH SLIDING THE NEARING SFC LOW OVER MN EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...CROSSING UPPER MI/N LAKE MI DURING THE DAY...AND EXITING
ACROSS LAKE HURON FRIDAY EVENING. THE 06Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS MUCH
FARTHER TO THE N WITH THE LOW...WHICH WAS BACKED BY THE ECMWF
YESTERDAY. OVERALL...THE GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT OVERALL WITH
THE TRACK. THE 12Z SOLUTIONS ARE COMING IN WITH AT LEAST SOME BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING...BUT STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR CHANGES.
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE EXITING SFC LOW FRIDAY NIGHT.
JUST HOW COLD IS ANOTHER QUESTION...AS THE GFS AND
ECMWF VARY BY AROUND 5C...RANGING FROM -9C TO -2C /COLDEST OFF THE
ECMWF/ BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS COULD MAKE THE DIFFERENCE IN ALL SNOW
OR LINGERING RAIN/SNOW MIX INLAND SATURDAY MORNING. W-NW WINDS WILL
BE THE RULE FROM 00Z SATURDAY-00Z SUNDAY.
WILL RUN WITH A BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
NEXT MONDAY...AS THE NEXT 500MB TROUGH DIVES IN. THE SMALL SCALE
DIFFERENCES ARE GOING TO BE DIFFICULT TO PERFECT AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016
FCST FOR TONIGHT WILL BE CHALLENGING AS LARGER SCALE
SUBSIDENCE/LOWERING INVERSION IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING
MAY BRING ABOUT IFR CIGS. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO IFR DEVELOPING
LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING AT KIWD/KCMX...PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO
SOME -SN SPREADING INTO THE AREA. KSAW MAY SEE A PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS
IN LIGHT SNOW TUE AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016
WITH A WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER LAKES...WINDS ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 20KT TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON TUE AND TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF
HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO MANITOBA WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STRONGER N
WINDS UP TO 30KT TUE AFTN/NIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE
CNTRL AND ERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING. THERE
MAY BE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS. IN ADDITION...EXPECT SOME HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 20KT WED AS HIGH PRES ARRIVES OVER THE
UPPER LAKES. STRONGER SSE WINDS UP TO 30KT WILL THEN DEVELOP ON THU
UNDER A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND
ANOTHER APPROACHING LOW PRES. WINDS MAY INCREASE FURTHER TO GALES
THU NIGHT OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOW WILL PASS OVER
OR JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR FRI. STRONG W TO NW WINDS UP TO 30KT WILL
THEN FOLLOW INTO FRI NIGHT AND SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
420 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW DEAMPLIFYING FLOW ACROSS N
AMERICA. DEEP TROF THAT WAS OVER SE CANADA/NE CONUS 24HRS AGO IS
LIFTING NE...LEAVING BEHIND A BROAD TROF OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN
CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFF THE W COAST. A
VIGOROUS LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING ACROSS NRN IL. ASSOCIATED
SHIELD OF SNOW HAS PASSED S OF THE AREA TODAY. UPSTREAM...SHORTWAVE
TROF OVER MANITOBA/WRN MN WILL BE THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST
DURING THE SHORT TERM. MEANWHILE...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRES NOW OVER THE LOWER LAKES/MID ATLANTIC STATES
IS BRINGING LES NORTHWARD OFF LAKE MI UNDER 850MB TEMPS AROUND -16C
ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE LAKE PER LATEST RAP ANALYSIS. SATELLITE AND
RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE LES HAS NOT BEEN WELL ORGANIZED AS IT LIFTED
N INTO THE SE FCST AREA THIS AFTN. THE HEAVIER SNOW HAS IMPACTED
MENOMINEE COUNTY...BUT WEB CAMS SUGGEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN
UNDER 1 INCH.
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROF ACROSS WRN MN WILL SHIFT E...REACHING
CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR/CNTRL UPPER MI AROUND 12Z MON. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A PERIOD OF DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS
AND A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF FEATURE.
THIS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST SOME AREAS OF -SN MOVING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA TONIGHT. OF MORE INTEREST IS WHAT HAPPENS DOWNWIND OF LAKE MI.
WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -13/-14C ACROSS NRN LAKE MI...SYNOPTIC
FORCING/DEEPER MOSITURE WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT.
IN ADDITION...AS WEAK SFC TROF ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA...THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROF SHARPENS UP AS IT
REACHES LAKE MI...LEADING TO A FOCUSING OF THE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE DGZ ENCOMPASSING A VERY DEEP LAYER 9-10FT
THICK. WHILE MODELS DON`T SHOW MUCH UPWARD MOTION IN THAT LAYER DUE
TO THE OVERALL WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING...IT WILL STILL HELP FLUFF UP
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SFC TROF STEADILY CROSSES NRN LAKE MI/SE FCST
AREA ROUGHLY DURING THE 09Z-21Z TIME FRAME. STEADY PROGRESSION WILL
LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW. FOR NOW...FCST WILL SHOW TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
TONIGHT/MON OF 2-3 INCHES WITH LOCAL 4 INCH AMOUNTS FROM MENOMINEE
COUNTY INTO LUCE COUNTY...SUB ADVY AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE INCREASE IN ENHANCEMENT ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC
TROF. SINCE MUCH OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR WITH THIS
FEATURE AND OVER A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...THE HIGHER
SNOWFALL RATES MAY REQUIRE ISSUANCE OF AN ADVY LATER. ELSEWHERE...
SNOW ACCMULATIONS SHOULD BE UNDER 1 INCH. WITH PASSAGE OF SFC
TROF...-SN WILL END.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
FIRST CHANCE OF ANY SORT OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IN THE LONG TERM IS
TUE AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH AND TURNS LOW LEVEL WINDS NWLY
LATER IN THE DAY. 850MB TEMPS DROP TO -15C BY 00Z WED BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE AND MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO MORE THROUGH WED MORNING AS
WINDS TURN NNW. A SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAST. THE 00Z/14 ECMWF HAS
THE RIDGE OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z
THU...THE 12Z/14 GFS IS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER...OTHER MODELS ARE IN
BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS. THIS WILL HELP LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT
BEFORE THE LES CUTS OFF WE COULD SEE GENERALLY 3-5 INCHES IN THE NW-
NNW WIND SNOWBELTS LATE TUE THROUGH WED (MAINLY THROUGH WED
MORNING).
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LATE IN THE WEEK AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A STRONG DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH...ALTHOUGH MODELS STRUGGLE WITH
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT WITH THE COMPLEX SYSTEM. GENERAL
IDEA IS THAT STRONG WAA WILL BEGIN LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AND
CONTINUE UNTIL A SFC LOW AND UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH OR NEARBY
LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT WE COULD SEE
A SHORT PERIOD OF SNOW IN THE WAA REGIME BEFORE TEMPS WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL LIQUID PRECIP. AFTER THE CHANGE OVER TO LIQUID...COULD
SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN (POSSIBLY NON-CONVECTIONAL
FREEZING RAIN WHERE SFC AIR IS ABOVE FREEZING BUT ROADS ARE BELOW
FREEZING)...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE SLY FLOW AND WAA SHOULD END THE
FREEZING ASPECT OF THE RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY. GFS SHOWS 0.25-0.5
INCHES OF LIQUID QPF ON FRI...THE ECMWF HAS 0.3-1.0 INCHES...THE GEM
HAS SIMILAR AMOUNTS TO THE GFS...BUT DISPLACED SE. COLD AIR SURGES
INTO THE ARE BEHIND THE SYSTEM FRI NIGHT...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
THERE IS MUCH FORCING FOR PRECIP AT THAT POINT...SO SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL ON THE BACK SIDE LOOKS LIMITED...NOT EVEN COLD ENOUGH FOR
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT.
VERY LIMITED CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT IN GENERAL IT DOES
LOOK LIKE COLDER AIR MOVES IN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DISTURBANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THIS AFTN AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW...THOUGH
STRATOCU AHEAD OF A DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD E TO KIWD...AND STRATOCU
WILL ALSO LIFT N OFF LAKE MI TO KSAW. ATTM...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE
CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRATOCU WILL BE ABOVE 3500FT. AS
DISTURBANCE MOVES CLOSER...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL TO MVFR AT ALL
TERMINALS TONIGHT. WHILE SOME -SN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...THE
BEST CHC OF -SN AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OF IFR VIS WILL BE AT KSAW...
WHICH WILL BE MORE INFLUENCED BY MOISTURE ADVECTING N OFF LAKE MI.
WITH A DOWNSLOPE S WIND AND ABSENCE OF LAKE MI INFLUENCE...KIWD IS
LEAST LIKELY TO SEE ANY -SN. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MON
MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES NEAR THE E COAST AND A
LOW PRES TROF APPROACHING FROM THE W WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS
OF 20-30KT TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE E HALF
OF THE LAKE WHERE THERE MAY BE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KT. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH MON AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. AFTER A PERIOD OF
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 20KT MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING...PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT TUE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS OF
20-30KT. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF GALES OVER THE CNTRL PORTION OF
THE LAKE TUE NIGHT IN ADDITION TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20KT WED WITH ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER HIGH PRES
RIDGE. STRONGER SSE WIND UP TO 30 KTS WILL ARRIVE ON THU UNDER A
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH SHIFTING TO THE E AND
ANOTHER APPROACHING LOW PRES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
254 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP UPR TROF OVER
SE CANADA SLOWLY WEAKENING AND ALLOWING A SHRTWV RDG AXIS WITH 12HR
H5 HGT RISES UP TO 100M TO BRING LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE TO THE CWA.
SOME LK CLDS/LIGHT LES IS STILL LINGERING OVER THE TIP OF THE
KEWEENAW AND IN THE SN BELTS E OF MUNISING UNDER AREA OF H85 TEMPS
AOB -20C/LLVL NW FLOW...BUT SUBSIDENCE HAS HAD A SGNFT IMPACT ON
LIMITING THE INTENSITY OF THIS PCPN. ELSEWHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED.
UNDER THE MOCLR SKIES ACRS THE W AND CENTRAL/PWAT NEAR 0.05 INCH OR
30 PCT OF NORMAL/LGT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HI PRES PASSING THRU
WI...TEMPS AT SOME OF THE INTERIOR COLD SPOTS IN THAT AREA HAVE
FALLEN WELL BLO -20F. LOOKING TO THE W...THERE ARE TWO SHRTWVS OF
INTEREST. THE STRONGEST IS SLIDING ESEWD THRU THE DAKOTAS...WHILE
THE OTHER DISTURBANCE IS MOVING E INTO FAR SRN MANITOBA. DESPITE
VERY DRY LLVL AIR DEPICTED ON THE 00Z MPX RAOB... SOME LO/MID CLDS
AHEAD OF THESE SHRTWVS ARE PUSHING E THRU MN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON CLD/POP TRENDS THIS
AFTN/TNGT ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCES TO THE W AND INCRSG SLY FLOW/
WAA UNDER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AS THE WI HI PRES SHIFTS TO THE
E. BIGGEST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LES OFF LK MI WITH THE
INCRSG S WIND.
TODAY...STRONGER SRN MOST SHRTWV TO THE W IS FCST TO SLIDE TOWARD
THE LOWER LKS. SINCE ACCOMPANYING DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IS
PROGGED TO STAY TO THE S OF UPR MI...MODELS SHOW VERY DRY MID LVL
AIR LINGERING OVER UPR MI. SOME MID LVL MSTR IS FCST TO MOVE INTO
THE WRN CWA LATER TODAY AHEAD OF THE WEAKER NRN DISTURBANCE...WHICH
IS FCST TO REACH NEAR INL BY 00Z MON. BUT DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF INCRSG
S WIND UNDER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN HI PRES SHIFTING TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC AND FALLING MSLP IN MN SHOULD KEEP THE W PCPN FREE
DESPITE THE INCRSG MID CLDS. THE SHORTER TIME GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON GENERATING SOME LGT LES OFF LK MI BY 18Z WITH SSE SFC-
H925 FLOW FLOWING UP THE LONG AXIS OF LK MI. WHILE THE ORIENTATION
OF THE FLOW UP LK MI AND H85 TEMPS REBOUNDING ONLY TO ARND -15C ARE
FAVORABLE...THE DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS IN PLACE PER THE 00Z GRB RAOB
AS WELL ACYC NATURE OF THE H925 FLOW/LO INVRN BASE NEAR 4K FT AGL
AWAY FM DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH TWO SHRTWVS TO THE W SHOULD
LIMIT COVERAGE OF SN SHOWERS/POPS AND ESPECIALLY SN TOTALS. WHILE A
FEW PLACES COULD PICK UP AN INCH OF SN...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE
LESS. INCRSG SUN ANGLE/A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AWAY FM THE LK CLDS
STREAMING OFF LK MI AND AHEAD OF DEEPER MID LVL MSTR MOVING IN FM
THE W SHOULD ALLOW VERY LO TEMPS THIS MRNG TO RECOVER CLOSER TO
NORMAL THIS AFTN.
TNGT...ARRIVAL OF SOME DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF NRN
SHRTWV TNGT IN THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT SLY FLOW UP THE LONG AXIS
OF LK MI AND H85 TEMPS FCST TO REMAIN AS LO AS ABOUT -13C OVER NRN
LK MI THRU 12Z MON WL ALLOW FOR SOME LK ENHANCEMENT OF THE LES IN
THE 06Z-12Z TIME TNGT. MODELS SHOW SOME SHARPER LLVL CNVGC IMPACTING
PORTIONS OF THE SE CWA AS FAR E AS THE GARDEN PENINSULA BY 12Z.
CONSIDERING THE FAVORABLE DEPTH OF THE DGZ AFTER THE ARRIVAL OF THE
DEEPER MSTR...SUSPECT SN FALL RATES COULD REACH 1-2 INCHES PER HR
UNDER THIS AXIS OF CNVGC. ALTHOUGH A GOOD NUMBER OF THE HI RES
MODELS INDICATE THIS AXIS OF LLVL CNVGC WL BE RATHER TRANSIENT...
SOME DO SHOW A SLOWER DRIFT THAT COULD RESULT IN SOME ADVY SN
TOTALS. AWAY FM THE LK MI ENHANCEMENT...ANY SN WL BE LGT...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OVER THE W/NW NEAR LK SUP WHERE THE S WIND WL
DOWNSLOPE. LO TEMPS TNGT WL BE MUCH WARMER THAN THIS MRNG WITH
INCRSG MSTR/STEADY SSW FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
FIRST CHANCE OF ANY SORT OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IN THE LONG TERM IS
TUE AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH AND TURNS LOW LEVEL WINDS NWLY
LATER IN THE DAY. 850MB TEMPS DROP TO -15C BY 00Z WED BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE AND MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO MORE THROUGH WED MORNING AS
WINDS TURN NNW. A SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAST. THE 00Z/14 ECMWF HAS
THE RIDGE OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z
THU...THE 12Z/14 GFS IS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER...OTHER MODELS ARE IN
BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS. THIS WILL HELP LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT
BEFORE THE LES CUTS OFF WE COULD SEE GENERALLY 3-5 INCHES IN THE NW-
NNW WIND SNOWBELTS LATE TUE THROUGH WED (MAINLY THROUGH WED
MORNING).
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LATE IN THE WEEK AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A STRONG DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH...ALTHOUGH MODELS STRUGGLE WITH
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT WITH THE COMPLEX SYSTEM. GENERAL
IDEA IS THAT STRONG WAA WILL BEGIN LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AND
CONTINUE UNTIL A SFC LOW AND UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH OR NEARBY
LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT WE COULD SEE
A SHORT PERIOD OF SNOW IN THE WAA REGIME BEFORE TEMPS WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL LIQUID PRECIP. AFTER THE CHANGE OVER TO LIQUID...COULD
SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN (POSSIBLY NON-CONVECTIONAL
FREEZING RAIN WHERE SFC AIR IS ABOVE FREEZING BUT ROADS ARE BELOW
FREEZING)...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE SLY FLOW AND WAA SHOULD END THE
FREEZING ASPECT OF THE RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY. GFS SHOWS 0.25-0.5
INCHES OF LIQUID QPF ON FRI...THE ECMWF HAS 0.3-1.0 INCHES...THE GEM
HAS SIMILAR AMOUNTS TO THE GFS...BUT DISPLACED SE. COLD AIR SURGES
INTO THE ARE BEHIND THE SYSTEM FRI NIGHT...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
THERE IS MUCH FORCING FOR PRECIP AT THAT POINT...SO SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL ON THE BACK SIDE LOOKS LIMITED...NOT EVEN COLD ENOUGH FOR
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT.
VERY LIMITED CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT IN GENERAL IT DOES
LOOK LIKE COLDER AIR MOVES IN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DISTURBANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THIS AFTN AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW...THOUGH
STRATOCU AHEAD OF A DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD E TO KIWD...AND STRATOCU
WILL ALSO LIFT N OFF LAKE MI TO KSAW. ATTM...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE
CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRATOCU WILL BE ABOVE 3500FT. AS
DISTURBANCE MOVES CLOSER...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL TO MVFR AT ALL
TERMINALS TONIGHT. WHILE SOME -SN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...THE
BEST CHC OF -SN AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OF IFR VIS WILL BE AT KSAW...
WHICH WILL BE MORE INFLUENCED BY MOISTURE ADVECTING N OFF LAKE MI.
WITH A DOWNSLOPE S WIND AND ABSENCE OF LAKE MI INFLUENCE...KIWD IS
LEAST LIKELY TO SEE ANY -SN. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MON
MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HI PRES DEPARTING TO THE E AND
A LO PRES TROF APPROACHING FROM THE W...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS TODAY
OVER THE LAKE TO INCREASE TO S WINDS UP TO 30 KTS TONIGHT. THE
HIGHEST WINDS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER OVER THE E
HALF...WHERE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. THESE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON MON UNDER A WEAKENING GRADIENT. AFTER A
PERIOD OF RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS LATER ON MON AND MON
NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG NNW WINDS THAT WILL AT LEAST
APPROACH 35 KT GALES FOR A SHORT TIME WILL DEVELOP TUE NIGHT
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEST CHANCE FOR THESE GALES TO 35
KTS WILL BE OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E HALF. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH
WED WITH ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER HIGH PRES RIDGE. BUT STRONGER SSE WIND
UP TO 30 KTS WILL ARRIVE ON THU UNDER A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS HI SHIFTING TO THE E AND ANOTHER APPROACHING LO PRES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1247 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP UPR TROF OVER
SE CANADA SLOWLY WEAKENING AND ALLOWING A SHRTWV RDG AXIS WITH 12HR
H5 HGT RISES UP TO 100M TO BRING LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE TO THE CWA.
SOME LK CLDS/LIGHT LES IS STILL LINGERING OVER THE TIP OF THE
KEWEENAW AND IN THE SN BELTS E OF MUNISING UNDER AREA OF H85 TEMPS
AOB -20C/LLVL NW FLOW...BUT SUBSIDENCE HAS HAD A SGNFT IMPACT ON
LIMITING THE INTENSITY OF THIS PCPN. ELSEWHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED.
UNDER THE MOCLR SKIES ACRS THE W AND CENTRAL/PWAT NEAR 0.05 INCH OR
30 PCT OF NORMAL/LGT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HI PRES PASSING THRU
WI...TEMPS AT SOME OF THE INTERIOR COLD SPOTS IN THAT AREA HAVE
FALLEN WELL BLO -20F. LOOKING TO THE W...THERE ARE TWO SHRTWVS OF
INTEREST. THE STRONGEST IS SLIDING ESEWD THRU THE DAKOTAS...WHILE
THE OTHER DISTURBANCE IS MOVING E INTO FAR SRN MANITOBA. DESPITE
VERY DRY LLVL AIR DEPICTED ON THE 00Z MPX RAOB... SOME LO/MID CLDS
AHEAD OF THESE SHRTWVS ARE PUSHING E THRU MN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON CLD/POP TRENDS THIS
AFTN/TNGT ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCES TO THE W AND INCRSG SLY FLOW/
WAA UNDER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AS THE WI HI PRES SHIFTS TO THE
E. BIGGEST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LES OFF LK MI WITH THE
INCRSG S WIND.
TODAY...STRONGER SRN MOST SHRTWV TO THE W IS FCST TO SLIDE TOWARD
THE LOWER LKS. SINCE ACCOMPANYING DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IS
PROGGED TO STAY TO THE S OF UPR MI...MODELS SHOW VERY DRY MID LVL
AIR LINGERING OVER UPR MI. SOME MID LVL MSTR IS FCST TO MOVE INTO
THE WRN CWA LATER TODAY AHEAD OF THE WEAKER NRN DISTURBANCE...WHICH
IS FCST TO REACH NEAR INL BY 00Z MON. BUT DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF INCRSG
S WIND UNDER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN HI PRES SHIFTING TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC AND FALLING MSLP IN MN SHOULD KEEP THE W PCPN FREE
DESPITE THE INCRSG MID CLDS. THE SHORTER TIME GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON GENERATING SOME LGT LES OFF LK MI BY 18Z WITH SSE SFC-
H925 FLOW FLOWING UP THE LONG AXIS OF LK MI. WHILE THE ORIENTATION
OF THE FLOW UP LK MI AND H85 TEMPS REBOUNDING ONLY TO ARND -15C ARE
FAVORABLE...THE DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS IN PLACE PER THE 00Z GRB RAOB
AS WELL ACYC NATURE OF THE H925 FLOW/LO INVRN BASE NEAR 4K FT AGL
AWAY FM DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH TWO SHRTWVS TO THE W SHOULD
LIMIT COVERAGE OF SN SHOWERS/POPS AND ESPECIALLY SN TOTALS. WHILE A
FEW PLACES COULD PICK UP AN INCH OF SN...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE
LESS. INCRSG SUN ANGLE/A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AWAY FM THE LK CLDS
STREAMING OFF LK MI AND AHEAD OF DEEPER MID LVL MSTR MOVING IN FM
THE W SHOULD ALLOW VERY LO TEMPS THIS MRNG TO RECOVER CLOSER TO
NORMAL THIS AFTN.
TNGT...ARRIVAL OF SOME DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF NRN
SHRTWV TNGT IN THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT SLY FLOW UP THE LONG AXIS
OF LK MI AND H85 TEMPS FCST TO REMAIN AS LO AS ABOUT -13C OVER NRN
LK MI THRU 12Z MON WL ALLOW FOR SOME LK ENHANCEMENT OF THE LES IN
THE 06Z-12Z TIME TNGT. MODELS SHOW SOME SHARPER LLVL CNVGC IMPACTING
PORTIONS OF THE SE CWA AS FAR E AS THE GARDEN PENINSULA BY 12Z.
CONSIDERING THE FAVORABLE DEPTH OF THE DGZ AFTER THE ARRIVAL OF THE
DEEPER MSTR...SUSPECT SN FALL RATES COULD REACH 1-2 INCHES PER HR
UNDER THIS AXIS OF CNVGC. ALTHOUGH A GOOD NUMBER OF THE HI RES
MODELS INDICATE THIS AXIS OF LLVL CNVGC WL BE RATHER TRANSIENT...
SOME DO SHOW A SLOWER DRIFT THAT COULD RESULT IN SOME ADVY SN
TOTALS. AWAY FM THE LK MI ENHANCEMENT...ANY SN WL BE LGT...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OVER THE W/NW NEAR LK SUP WHERE THE S WIND WL
DOWNSLOPE. LO TEMPS TNGT WL BE MUCH WARMER THAN THIS MRNG WITH
INCRSG MSTR/STEADY SSW FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
...ACTIVE PATTERN WITH WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK...
IN THE LARGE SCALE...ENERGETIC PACIFIC JET STREAM WILL LEAD TO
ACTIVE AMPLIFIED FLOW AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT 7-10 DAYS
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. MAIN CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD LGT SNOW OCCURS MON
WITH LAKE ENHANCED SNOW POSSIBLE IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF LK MICHIGAN.
BETTER CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT OFF LK SUPERIOR OCCUR TUE AFTN THROUGH
WED AS MORE COLD AIR SWEEPS OVER GREAT LAKES. NEXT STRONGER SYSTEM
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES IN SOME SHAPE OR FORM THU/FRI.
WARMING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO LIQUID PRECIP AT SOME POINT THU NIGHT INTO
FRI...BUT THAT MAY BE PRECEEDED BY WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW.
EXTENT OF PRECIP WITH THE SYSTEM IS UNKNOWN THOUGH AS MODELS DIFFER
ON WHERE STRONGEST SFC LOW AND LIFT FOR PRECIP DEVELOPS. PLENTY OF
TIME TO SORT OUT THESE DETAILS. NO MATTER HOW YOU LOOK AT IT APPEARS
A MESSY MIX OF WINTRY WEATHER WOULD OCCUR THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
ON MON...DEEP TROUGHING ALOFT FM THIS WEEKEND WILL BE GONE...BUT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ON ITS WAY TO RE-SHARPENING TROUGHING INTO
TUE. SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW ON LEADING EDGE OF TROUGHING WILL HELP IN
SPREADING WIDESPREAD LGT SNOW ACROSS CWA. CONVERGENT SRLY FLOW OFF
LK MICHIGAN AND SUFFICIENT OVER-WATER INSTABILITY WITH H85 TEMPS
AROUND -13C OPENS DOOR FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT MON MORNING INTO EARLY
MON AFTN. MAJORITY OF HIGH RES QPF INDICATES NARROW BAND/S OF LAKE
EFFECT WITH POSSIBILITY OF SNOW RATES OVER 1 INCH PER HOUR HELPED
OUT BY DEEP DGZ OVER 10KFT. MOST GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS SUCH BANDS
SHIFTING ALONG AND NOT STAYING PUT OVER ONE LOCATION. AREA MOST
FAVORED FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WOULD BE
MENOMINEE COUNTY INTO SOUTHERN DELTA AND SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT
COUNTIES. STILL TOO EARLY TO DO ANY TYPE OF HEADLINE SINCE IT IS
UNDERTAIN WHERE HEAVIER LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OCCURS...BUT MAY NEED A
HEADLINE EVENTUALLY. WILL MENTION HEAVIER SNOW POSSIBILITY IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
GENERALLY QUIET MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING AHEAD OF STRONGER
SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW/TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS MANTIOBA/ONTARIO.
SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH TEMPS WARMER THAN -8C SO
COULD SEE FZDZ POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST CLOSER TO APPROACHING SFC
TROUGH. MAIN IMPACT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS WILL BE TO HELP
KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S. A FAR CRY FM THE BITTER
COLD OCCURRING THIS MORNING. WENT TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE ON TUE AS
IF TROUGH SLOWS SOME ON TUE...WOULD HAVE OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPS TO
REACH LOW-MID 30S. TROUGH ARRIVES IN THE AFTN NORTHWEST THEN SWEEPS
OVER REST OF CWA BY EVENING. A BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ON
TROUGH AXIS SEEMS REASONABLE. THOUGH THIS WOULD BE BRIEF...ITS
ARRIVAL MAY TIME OUT WITH AFTN/EVENING COMMUTE. WILL BE SOMETHING
TO KEEP AWARE OF. LAKE EFFECT IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD BE
OKAY TO START BUT AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN...EXPECT
IT TO BEGIN TO STRUGGLE. SOUNDINGS SHOW QUICKLY DEVELOPING
SUBSIDENCE WITH GFS POINT AT P53 /MUNISING/ SHOWING INVERSIONS OVER
6-8KFT TUE EVENING LOWERING TO 4-5KFT BY MIDNIGHT. GOOD PART OF DGZ
IS WITHIN THE LAKE CONVECTIVE LAYER...BUT SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND QUICK
FORMATION OF ANTICYCLONIC SFC FLOW WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN SHOULD
LIMIT LES INTENSITY. KEPT POPS HIGH...BUT QPF/SNOW QUICKLY COMES
DOWN AFT TUE EVENING. GUSTY NW WINDS 20-30 MPH WITH THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN BLYR SHOULD LEAD TO BLSN/LOWER VSBY AND COULD TIP THIS
TO NEEDING AN ADVY. JURY STILL OUT ON THAT THOUGH. WILL MENTION IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
LAKE EFFECT RUNS ITS COURSE ON WED AND AS SFC RIDGE CROSSES WED AFTN
INTO WED EVENING...SHOULD SHUT DOWN ON WED EVENING WITH LOSS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SCT MID-HIGH CLOUDS...BUT MAY BE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT
WITH THE RIDGE IN THE VCNTY. GIVEN THIS SETUP PROBABLY DID NOT GO
COLD ENOUGH AND LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO LOWER TEMPS BELOW CONSENSUS.
LOWEST GUIDANCE SHOWING MINS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS BLO ZERO FOR THE
INTERIOR.
ATTN LATE THIS WEEK IS ON STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AS SFC
RIDGE SLIDES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND STRONG SFC LOW...THANKS IN PART TO
THAT VIGOROUS PACIFIC JET STREAM MENTIONED AT THE TOP...EXPANDS OVER
FM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
GIVE WAY TO H85 TEMPS ABOVE ZERO AS EARLY AS THU EVENING WITH SURGE
OF WARMER AIR /H85 TEMPS MAYBE AS WARM AS +6C/ WASHING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRI. WARMING EVENTUALLY MAKES IT TO SFC WITH
HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 30S IF NOT INTO LOW 40S FOR PARTS OF
WESTERN CWA. UNTIL WARMING MAKES IT TO SFC...THE WARM AIR ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN THE SNOW THAT DEVELOPS IN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN THU
AFTN INTO THU NIGHT TO CHANGE TO LIQUID PRECIP FM WEST TO EAST LATE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI. PRECIP COULD BE ENHANCED DEPENDING ON STRENGTH
OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. TEMPS WILL BE ON
THE RISE BUT LINGERING COLD TEMPS NEAR SFC COULD RESULT IN FZRA AND
ICING ISSUES AT LEAST BRIEFLY FOR PARTS OF CWA. SINCE S FLOW IS
STRONG AS SEEN BY THE H85 WINDS NEAR 50 KTS INTO WI ON THU NIGHT AS
THE SFC HIGH IS MORE EAST OF HERE VERSUS NORTHEAST /LIMITING COLD
DRY EASTERLY SFC FLOW THAT WOULD TEMPER SFC WARMING/...THINK THE
WARMING AT THE SFC WILL ARRIVE PRETTY QUICKLY SO MIXED PRECIP SHOULD
CONVERT TO RAIN EVEN AT THE SFC LATER FRI MORNING INTO FRI AFTN.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION WINTRY MIX AND ICE POTENTIAL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
TREND IS FOR COOLER TEMPS TO RETURN NEXT SAT ONCE THE LARGE SFC LOW
AND WARM FRONT PASS TO THE EAST. JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AT THAT TIME. CONSENSUS GUIDANCE UTILIZED FOR TEMPS WHICH
BROUGHT TEMPS BACK INTO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THIS AFTN AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW...THOUGH
STRATOCU AHEAD OF A DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD E TO KIWD...AND STRATOCU
WILL ALSO LIFT N OFF LAKE MI TO KSAW. ATTM...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE
CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRATOCU WILL BE ABOVE 3500FT. AS
DISTURBANCE MOVES CLOSER...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL TO MVFR AT ALL
TERMINALS TONIGHT. WHILE SOME -SN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...THE
BEST CHC OF -SN AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OF IFR VIS WILL BE AT KSAW...
WHICH WILL BE MORE INFLUENCED BY MOISTURE ADVECTING N OFF LAKE MI.
WITH A DOWNSLOPE S WIND AND ABSENCE OF LAKE MI INFLUENCE...KIWD IS
LEAST LIKELY TO SEE ANY -SN. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MON
MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HI PRES DEPARTING TO THE E AND
A LO PRES TROF APPROACHING FROM THE W...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS TODAY
OVER THE LAKE TO INCREASE TO S WINDS UP TO 30 KTS TONIGHT. THE
HIGHEST WINDS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER OVER THE E
HALF...WHERE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. THESE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON MON UNDER A WEAKENING GRADIENT. AFTER A
PERIOD OF RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS LATER ON MON AND MON
NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG NNW WINDS THAT WILL AT LEAST
APPROACH 35 KT GALES FOR A SHORT TIME WILL DEVELOP TUE NIGHT
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEST CHANCE FOR THESE GALES TO 35
KTS WILL BE OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E HALF. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH
WED WITH ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER HIGH PRES RIDGE. BUT STRONGER SSE WIND
UP TO 30 KTS WILL ARRIVE ON THU UNDER A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS HI SHIFTING TO THE E AND ANOTHER APPROACHING LO PRES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
625 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP UPR TROF OVER
SE CANADA SLOWLY WEAKENING AND ALLOWING A SHRTWV RDG AXIS WITH 12HR
H5 HGT RISES UP TO 100M TO BRING LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE TO THE CWA.
SOME LK CLDS/LIGHT LES IS STILL LINGERING OVER THE TIP OF THE
KEWEENAW AND IN THE SN BELTS E OF MUNISING UNDER AREA OF H85 TEMPS
AOB -20C/LLVL NW FLOW...BUT SUBSIDENCE HAS HAD A SGNFT IMPACT ON
LIMITING THE INTENSITY OF THIS PCPN. ELSEWHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED.
UNDER THE MOCLR SKIES ACRS THE W AND CENTRAL/PWAT NEAR 0.05 INCH OR
30 PCT OF NORMAL/LGT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HI PRES PASSING THRU
WI...TEMPS AT SOME OF THE INTERIOR COLD SPOTS IN THAT AREA HAVE
FALLEN WELL BLO -20F. LOOKING TO THE W...THERE ARE TWO SHRTWVS OF
INTEREST. THE STRONGEST IS SLIDING ESEWD THRU THE DAKOTAS...WHILE
THE OTHER DISTURBANCE IS MOVING E INTO FAR SRN MANITOBA. DESPITE
VERY DRY LLVL AIR DEPICTED ON THE 00Z MPX RAOB... SOME LO/MID CLDS
AHEAD OF THESE SHRTWVS ARE PUSHING E THRU MN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON CLD/POP TRENDS THIS
AFTN/TNGT ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCES TO THE W AND INCRSG SLY FLOW/
WAA UNDER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AS THE WI HI PRES SHIFTS TO THE
E. BIGGEST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LES OFF LK MI WITH THE
INCRSG S WIND.
TODAY...STRONGER SRN MOST SHRTWV TO THE W IS FCST TO SLIDE TOWARD
THE LOWER LKS. SINCE ACCOMPANYING DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IS
PROGGED TO STAY TO THE S OF UPR MI...MODELS SHOW VERY DRY MID LVL
AIR LINGERING OVER UPR MI. SOME MID LVL MSTR IS FCST TO MOVE INTO
THE WRN CWA LATER TODAY AHEAD OF THE WEAKER NRN DISTURBANCE...WHICH
IS FCST TO REACH NEAR INL BY 00Z MON. BUT DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF INCRSG
S WIND UNDER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN HI PRES SHIFTING TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC AND FALLING MSLP IN MN SHOULD KEEP THE W PCPN FREE
DESPITE THE INCRSG MID CLDS. THE SHORTER TIME GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON GENERATING SOME LGT LES OFF LK MI BY 18Z WITH SSE SFC-
H925 FLOW FLOWING UP THE LONG AXIS OF LK MI. WHILE THE ORIENTATION
OF THE FLOW UP LK MI AND H85 TEMPS REBOUNDING ONLY TO ARND -15C ARE
FAVORABLE...THE DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS IN PLACE PER THE 00Z GRB RAOB
AS WELL ACYC NATURE OF THE H925 FLOW/LO INVRN BASE NEAR 4K FT AGL
AWAY FM DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH TWO SHRTWVS TO THE W SHOULD
LIMIT COVERAGE OF SN SHOWERS/POPS AND ESPECIALLY SN TOTALS. WHILE A
FEW PLACES COULD PICK UP AN INCH OF SN...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE
LESS. INCRSG SUN ANGLE/A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AWAY FM THE LK CLDS
STREAMING OFF LK MI AND AHEAD OF DEEPER MID LVL MSTR MOVING IN FM
THE W SHOULD ALLOW VERY LO TEMPS THIS MRNG TO RECOVER CLOSER TO
NORMAL THIS AFTN.
TNGT...ARRIVAL OF SOME DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF NRN
SHRTWV TNGT IN THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT SLY FLOW UP THE LONG AXIS
OF LK MI AND H85 TEMPS FCST TO REMAIN AS LO AS ABOUT -13C OVER NRN
LK MI THRU 12Z MON WL ALLOW FOR SOME LK ENHANCEMENT OF THE LES IN
THE 06Z-12Z TIME TNGT. MODELS SHOW SOME SHARPER LLVL CNVGC IMPACTING
PORTIONS OF THE SE CWA AS FAR E AS THE GARDEN PENINSULA BY 12Z.
CONSIDERING THE FAVORABLE DEPTH OF THE DGZ AFTER THE ARRIVAL OF THE
DEEPER MSTR...SUSPECT SN FALL RATES COULD REACH 1-2 INCHES PER HR
UNDER THIS AXIS OF CNVGC. ALTHOUGH A GOOD NUMBER OF THE HI RES
MODELS INDICATE THIS AXIS OF LLVL CNVGC WL BE RATHER TRANSIENT...
SOME DO SHOW A SLOWER DRIFT THAT COULD RESULT IN SOME ADVY SN
TOTALS. AWAY FM THE LK MI ENHANCEMENT...ANY SN WL BE LGT...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OVER THE W/NW NEAR LK SUP WHERE THE S WIND WL
DOWNSLOPE. LO TEMPS TNGT WL BE MUCH WARMER THAN THIS MRNG WITH
INCRSG MSTR/STEADY SSW FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
...ACTIVE PATTERN WITH WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK...
IN THE LARGE SCALE...ENERGETIC PACIFIC JET STREAM WILL LEAD TO
ACTIVE AMPLIFIED FLOW AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT 7-10 DAYS
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. MAIN CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD LGT SNOW OCCURS MON
WITH LAKE ENHANCED SNOW POSSIBLE IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF LK MICHIGAN.
BETTER CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT OFF LK SUPERIOR OCCUR TUE AFTN THROUGH
WED AS MORE COLD AIR SWEEPS OVER GREAT LAKES. NEXT STRONGER SYSTEM
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES IN SOME SHAPE OR FORM THU/FRI.
WARMING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO LIQUID PRECIP AT SOME POINT THU NIGHT INTO
FRI...BUT THAT MAY BE PRECEEDED BY WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW.
EXTENT OF PRECIP WITH THE SYSTEM IS UNKNOWN THOUGH AS MODELS DIFFER
ON WHERE STRONGEST SFC LOW AND LIFT FOR PRECIP DEVELOPS. PLENTY OF
TIME TO SORT OUT THESE DETAILS. NO MATTER HOW YOU LOOK AT IT APPEARS
A MESSY MIX OF WINTRY WEATHER WOULD OCCUR THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
ON MON...DEEP TROUGHING ALOFT FM THIS WEEKEND WILL BE GONE...BUT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ON ITS WAY TO RE-SHARPENING TROUGHING INTO
TUE. SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW ON LEADING EDGE OF TROUGHING WILL HELP IN
SPREADING WIDESPREAD LGT SNOW ACROSS CWA. CONVERGENT SRLY FLOW OFF
LK MICHIGAN AND SUFFICIENT OVER-WATER INSTABILITY WITH H85 TEMPS
AROUND -13C OPENS DOOR FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT MON MORNING INTO EARLY
MON AFTN. MAJORITY OF HIGH RES QPF INDICATES NARROW BAND/S OF LAKE
EFFECT WITH POSSIBILITY OF SNOW RATES OVER 1 INCH PER HOUR HELPED
OUT BY DEEP DGZ OVER 10KFT. MOST GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS SUCH BANDS
SHIFTING ALONG AND NOT STAYING PUT OVER ONE LOCATION. AREA MOST
FAVORED FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WOULD BE
MENOMINEE COUNTY INTO SOUTHERN DELTA AND SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT
COUNTIES. STILL TOO EARLY TO DO ANY TYPE OF HEADLINE SINCE IT IS
UNDERTAIN WHERE HEAVIER LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OCCURS...BUT MAY NEED A
HEADLINE EVENTUALLY. WILL MENTION HEAVIER SNOW POSSIBILITY IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
GENERALLY QUIET MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING AHEAD OF STRONGER
SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW/TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS MANTIOBA/ONTARIO.
SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH TEMPS WARMER THAN -8C SO
COULD SEE FZDZ POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST CLOSER TO APPROACHING SFC
TROUGH. MAIN IMPACT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS WILL BE TO HELP
KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S. A FAR CRY FM THE BITTER
COLD OCCURRING THIS MORNING. WENT TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE ON TUE AS
IF TROUGH SLOWS SOME ON TUE...WOULD HAVE OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPS TO
REACH LOW-MID 30S. TROUGH ARRIVES IN THE AFTN NORTHWEST THEN SWEEPS
OVER REST OF CWA BY EVENING. A BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ON
TROUGH AXIS SEEMS REASONABLE. THOUGH THIS WOULD BE BRIEF...ITS
ARRIVAL MAY TIME OUT WITH AFTN/EVENING COMMUTE. WILL BE SOMETHING
TO KEEP AWARE OF. LAKE EFFECT IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD BE
OKAY TO START BUT AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN...EXPECT
IT TO BEGIN TO STRUGGLE. SOUNDINGS SHOW QUICKLY DEVELOPING
SUBSIDENCE WITH GFS POINT AT P53 /MUNISING/ SHOWING INVERSIONS OVER
6-8KFT TUE EVENING LOWERING TO 4-5KFT BY MIDNIGHT. GOOD PART OF DGZ
IS WITHIN THE LAKE CONVECTIVE LAYER...BUT SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND QUICK
FORMATION OF ANTICYCLONIC SFC FLOW WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN SHOULD
LIMIT LES INTENSITY. KEPT POPS HIGH...BUT QPF/SNOW QUICKLY COMES
DOWN AFT TUE EVENING. GUSTY NW WINDS 20-30 MPH WITH THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN BLYR SHOULD LEAD TO BLSN/LOWER VSBY AND COULD TIP THIS
TO NEEDING AN ADVY. JURY STILL OUT ON THAT THOUGH. WILL MENTION IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
LAKE EFFECT RUNS ITS COURSE ON WED AND AS SFC RIDGE CROSSES WED AFTN
INTO WED EVENING...SHOULD SHUT DOWN ON WED EVENING WITH LOSS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SCT MID-HIGH CLOUDS...BUT MAY BE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT
WITH THE RIDGE IN THE VCNTY. GIVEN THIS SETUP PROBABLY DID NOT GO
COLD ENOUGH AND LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO LOWER TEMPS BELOW CONSENSUS.
LOWEST GUIDANCE SHOWING MINS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS BLO ZERO FOR THE
INTERIOR.
ATTN LATE THIS WEEK IS ON STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AS SFC
RIDGE SLIDES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND STRONG SFC LOW...THANKS IN PART TO
THAT VIGOROUS PACIFIC JET STREAM MENTIONED AT THE TOP...EXPANDS OVER
FM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
GIVE WAY TO H85 TEMPS ABOVE ZERO AS EARLY AS THU EVENING WITH SURGE
OF WARMER AIR /H85 TEMPS MAYBE AS WARM AS +6C/ WASHING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRI. WARMING EVENTUALLY MAKES IT TO SFC WITH
HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 30S IF NOT INTO LOW 40S FOR PARTS OF
WESTERN CWA. UNTIL WARMING MAKES IT TO SFC...THE WARM AIR ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN THE SNOW THAT DEVELOPS IN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN THU
AFTN INTO THU NIGHT TO CHANGE TO LIQUID PRECIP FM WEST TO EAST LATE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI. PRECIP COULD BE ENHANCED DEPENDING ON STRENGTH
OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. TEMPS WILL BE ON
THE RISE BUT LINGERING COLD TEMPS NEAR SFC COULD RESULT IN FZRA AND
ICING ISSUES AT LEAST BRIEFLY FOR PARTS OF CWA. SINCE S FLOW IS
STRONG AS SEEN BY THE H85 WINDS NEAR 50 KTS INTO WI ON THU NIGHT AS
THE SFC HIGH IS MORE EAST OF HERE VERSUS NORTHEAST /LIMITING COLD
DRY EASTERLY SFC FLOW THAT WOULD TEMPER SFC WARMING/...THINK THE
WARMING AT THE SFC WILL ARRIVE PRETTY QUICKLY SO MIXED PRECIP SHOULD
CONVERT TO RAIN EVEN AT THE SFC LATER FRI MORNING INTO FRI AFTN.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION WINTRY MIX AND ICE POTENTIAL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
TREND IS FOR COOLER TEMPS TO RETURN NEXT SAT ONCE THE LARGE SFC LOW
AND WARM FRONT PASS TO THE EAST. JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AT THAT TIME. CONSENSUS GUIDANCE UTILIZED FOR TEMPS WHICH
BROUGHT TEMPS BACK INTO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A HI PRES RDG TO THE E WL BRING VFR WX TO
THE TAF SITES THRU THIS AFTN. BUT AS DEEPER MSTR ARRIVES FM THE W
AHEAD OF AN APRCHG DISTURBANCE AND THE S WIND ON THE WRN FLANK OF
THIS HI ADVECTS MORE LLVL MSTR INTO UPR MI OFF LK MI...SOME LOWER
MVFR CIGS WL DVLP OVER THE AREA TNGT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE LOWER
MVFR CONDITIONS AND -SN WL BE AT SAW...WHICH WL BE MORE INFLUENCED
BY THE LK MI MOISTENING. WITH A DOWNSLOPE S WIND AND ABSENCE OF LK
MI INFLUENCE...IWD HAS THE BEST SHOT TO MAINTAIN A HIER CIG LONGER.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HI PRES DEPARTING TO THE E AND
A LO PRES TROF APPROACHING FROM THE W...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS TODAY
OVER THE LAKE TO INCREASE TO S WINDS UP TO 30 KTS TONIGHT. THE
HIGHEST WINDS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER OVER THE E
HALF...WHERE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. THESE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON MON UNDER A WEAKENING GRADIENT. AFTER A
PERIOD OF RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS LATER ON MON AND MON
NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG NNW WINDS THAT WILL AT LEAST
APPROACH 35 KT GALES FOR A SHORT TIME WILL DEVELOP TUE NIGHT
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEST CHANCE FOR THESE GALES TO 35
KTS WILL BE OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E HALF. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH
WED WITH ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER HIGH PRES RIDGE. BUT STRONGER SSE WIND
UP TO 30 KTS WILL ARRIVE ON THU UNDER A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS HI SHIFTING TO THE E AND ANOTHER APPROACHING LO PRES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
446 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP UPR TROF OVER
SE CANADA SLOWLY WEAKENING AND ALLOWING A SHRTWV RDG AXIS WITH 12HR
H5 HGT RISES UP TO 100M TO BRING LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE TO THE CWA.
SOME LK CLDS/LIGHT LES IS STILL LINGERING OVER THE TIP OF THE
KEWEENAW AND IN THE SN BELTS E OF MUNISING UNDER AREA OF H85 TEMPS
AOB -20C/LLVL NW FLOW...BUT SUBSIDENCE HAS HAD A SGNFT IMPACT ON
LIMITING THE INTENSITY OF THIS PCPN. ELSEWHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED.
UNDER THE MOCLR SKIES ACRS THE W AND CENTRAL/PWAT NEAR 0.05 INCH OR
30 PCT OF NORMAL/LGT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HI PRES PASSING THRU
WI...TEMPS AT SOME OF THE INTERIOR COLD SPOTS IN THAT AREA HAVE
FALLEN WELL BLO -20F. LOOKING TO THE W...THERE ARE TWO SHRTWVS OF
INTEREST. THE STRONGEST IS SLIDING ESEWD THRU THE DAKOTAS...WHILE
THE OTHER DISTURBANCE IS MOVING E INTO FAR SRN MANITOBA. DESPITE
VERY DRY LLVL AIR DEPICTED ON THE 00Z MPX RAOB... SOME LO/MID CLDS
AHEAD OF THESE SHRTWVS ARE PUSHING E THRU MN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON CLD/POP TRENDS THIS
AFTN/TNGT ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCES TO THE W AND INCRSG SLY FLOW/
WAA UNDER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AS THE WI HI PRES SHIFTS TO THE
E. BIGGEST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LES OFF LK MI WITH THE
INCRSG S WIND.
TODAY...STRONGER SRN MOST SHRTWV TO THE W IS FCST TO SLIDE TOWARD
THE LOWER LKS. SINCE ACCOMPANYING DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IS
PROGGED TO STAY TO THE S OF UPR MI...MODELS SHOW VERY DRY MID LVL
AIR LINGERING OVER UPR MI. SOME MID LVL MSTR IS FCST TO MOVE INTO
THE WRN CWA LATER TODAY AHEAD OF THE WEAKER NRN DISTURBANCE...WHICH
IS FCST TO REACH NEAR INL BY 00Z MON. BUT DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF INCRSG
S WIND UNDER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN HI PRES SHIFTING TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC AND FALLING MSLP IN MN SHOULD KEEP THE W PCPN FREE
DESPITE THE INCRSG MID CLDS. THE SHORTER TIME GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON GENERATING SOME LGT LES OFF LK MI BY 18Z WITH SSE SFC-
H925 FLOW FLOWING UP THE LONG AXIS OF LK MI. WHILE THE ORIENTATION
OF THE FLOW UP LK MI AND H85 TEMPS REBOUNDING ONLY TO ARND -15C ARE
FAVORABLE...THE DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS IN PLACE PER THE 00Z GRB RAOB
AS WELL ACYC NATURE OF THE H925 FLOW/LO INVRN BASE NEAR 4K FT AGL
AWAY FM DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH TWO SHRTWVS TO THE W SHOULD
LIMIT COVERAGE OF SN SHOWERS/POPS AND ESPECIALLY SN TOTALS. WHILE A
FEW PLACES COULD PICK UP AN INCH OF SN...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE
LESS. INCRSG SUN ANGLE/A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AWAY FM THE LK CLDS
STREAMING OFF LK MI AND AHEAD OF DEEPER MID LVL MSTR MOVING IN FM
THE W SHOULD ALLOW VERY LO TEMPS THIS MRNG TO RECOVER CLOSER TO
NORMAL THIS AFTN.
TNGT...ARRIVAL OF SOME DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF NRN
SHRTWV TNGT IN THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT SLY FLOW UP THE LONG AXIS
OF LK MI AND H85 TEMPS FCST TO REMAIN AS LO AS ABOUT -13C OVER NRN
LK MI THRU 12Z MON WL ALLOW FOR SOME LK ENHANCEMENT OF THE LES IN
THE 06Z-12Z TIME TNGT. MODELS SHOW SOME SHARPER LLVL CNVGC IMPACTING
PORTIONS OF THE SE CWA AS FAR E AS THE GARDEN PENINSULA BY 12Z.
CONSIDERING THE FAVORABLE DEPTH OF THE DGZ AFTER THE ARRIVAL OF THE
DEEPER MSTR...SUSPECT SN FALL RATES COULD REACH 1-2 INCHES PER HR
UNDER THIS AXIS OF CNVGC. ALTHOUGH A GOOD NUMBER OF THE HI RES
MODELS INDICATE THIS AXIS OF LLVL CNVGC WL BE RATHER TRANSIENT...
SOME DO SHOW A SLOWER DRIFT THAT COULD RESULT IN SOME ADVY SN
TOTALS. AWAY FM THE LK MI ENHANCEMENT...ANY SN WL BE LGT...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OVER THE W/NW NEAR LK SUP WHERE THE S WIND WL
DOWNSLOPE. LO TEMPS TNGT WL BE MUCH WARMER THAN THIS MRNG WITH
INCRSG MSTR/STEADY SSW FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
...ACTIVE PATTERN WITH WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK...
IN THE LARGE SCALE...ENERGETIC PACIFIC JET STREAM WILL LEAD TO
ACTIVE AMPLIFIED FLOW AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT 7-10 DAYS
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. MAIN CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD LGT SNOW OCCURS MON
WITH LAKE ENHANCED SNOW POSSIBLE IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF LK MICHIGAN.
BETTER CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT OFF LK SUPERIOR OCCUR TUE AFTN THROUGH
WED AS MORE COLD AIR SWEEPS OVER GREAT LAKES. NEXT STRONGER SYSTEM
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES IN SOME SHAPE OR FORM THU/FRI.
WARMING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO LIQUID PRECIP AT SOME POINT THU NIGHT INTO
FRI...BUT THAT MAY BE PRECEEDED BY WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW.
EXTENT OF PRECIP WITH THE SYSTEM IS UNKNOWN THOUGH AS MODELS DIFFER
ON WHERE STRONGEST SFC LOW AND LIFT FOR PRECIP DEVELOPS. PLENTY OF
TIME TO SORT OUT THESE DETAILS. NO MATTER HOW YOU LOOK AT IT APPEARS
A MESSY MIX OF WINTRY WEATHER WOULD OCCUR THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
ON MON...DEEP TROUGHING ALOFT FM THIS WEEKEND WILL BE GONE...BUT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ON ITS WAY TO RE-SHARPENING TROUGHING INTO
TUE. SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW ON LEADING EDGE OF TROUGHING WILL HELP IN
SPREADING WIDESPREAD LGT SNOW ACROSS CWA. CONVERGENT SRLY FLOW OFF
LK MICHIGAN AND SUFFICIENT OVER-WATER INSTABILITY WITH H85 TEMPS
AROUND -13C OPENS DOOR FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT MON MORNING INTO EARLY
MON AFTN. MAJORITY OF HIGH RES QPF INDICATES NARROW BAND/S OF LAKE
EFFECT WITH POSSIBILITY OF SNOW RATES OVER 1 INCH PER HOUR HELPED
OUT BY DEEP DGZ OVER 10KFT. MOST GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS SUCH BANDS
SHIFTING ALONG AND NOT STAYING PUT OVER ONE LOCATION. AREA MOST
FAVORED FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WOULD BE
MENOMINEE COUNTY INTO SOUTHERN DELTA AND SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT
COUNTIES. STILL TOO EARLY TO DO ANY TYPE OF HEADLINE SINCE IT IS
UNDERTAIN WHERE HEAVIER LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OCCURS...BUT MAY NEED A
HEADLINE EVENTUALLY. WILL MENTION HEAVIER SNOW POSSIBILITY IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
GENERALLY QUIET MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING AHEAD OF STRONGER
SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW/TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS MANTIOBA/ONTARIO.
SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH TEMPS WARMER THAN -8C SO
COULD SEE FZDZ POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST CLOSER TO APPROACHING SFC
TROUGH. MAIN IMPACT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS WILL BE TO HELP
KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S. A FAR CRY FM THE BITTER
COLD OCCURRING THIS MORNING. WENT TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE ON TUE AS
IF TROUGH SLOWS SOME ON TUE...WOULD HAVE OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPS TO
REACH LOW-MID 30S. TROUGH ARRIVES IN THE AFTN NORTHWEST THEN SWEEPS
OVER REST OF CWA BY EVENING. A BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ON
TROUGH AXIS SEEMS REASONABLE. THOUGH THIS WOULD BE BRIEF...ITS
ARRIVAL MAY TIME OUT WITH AFTN/EVENING COMMUTE. WILL BE SOMETHING
TO KEEP AWARE OF. LAKE EFFECT IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD BE
OKAY TO START BUT AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN...EXPECT
IT TO BEGIN TO STRUGGLE. SOUNDINGS SHOW QUICKLY DEVELOPING
SUBSIDENCE WITH GFS POINT AT P53 /MUNISING/ SHOWING INVERSIONS OVER
6-8KFT TUE EVENING LOWERING TO 4-5KFT BY MIDNIGHT. GOOD PART OF DGZ
IS WITHIN THE LAKE CONVECTIVE LAYER...BUT SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND QUICK
FORMATION OF ANTICYCLONIC SFC FLOW WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN SHOULD
LIMIT LES INTENSITY. KEPT POPS HIGH...BUT QPF/SNOW QUICKLY COMES
DOWN AFT TUE EVENING. GUSTY NW WINDS 20-30 MPH WITH THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN BLYR SHOULD LEAD TO BLSN/LOWER VSBY AND COULD TIP THIS
TO NEEDING AN ADVY. JURY STILL OUT ON THAT THOUGH. WILL MENTION IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
LAKE EFFECT RUNS ITS COURSE ON WED AND AS SFC RIDGE CROSSES WED AFTN
INTO WED EVENING...SHOULD SHUT DOWN ON WED EVENING WITH LOSS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SCT MID-HIGH CLOUDS...BUT MAY BE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT
WITH THE RIDGE IN THE VCNTY. GIVEN THIS SETUP PROBABLY DID NOT GO
COLD ENOUGH AND LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO LOWER TEMPS BELOW CONSENSUS.
LOWEST GUIDANCE SHOWING MINS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS BLO ZERO FOR THE
INTERIOR.
ATTN LATE THIS WEEK IS ON STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AS SFC
RIDGE SLIDES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND STRONG SFC LOW...THANKS IN PART TO
THAT VIGOROUS PACIFIC JET STREAM MENTIONED AT THE TOP...EXPANDS OVER
FM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
GIVE WAY TO H85 TEMPS ABOVE ZERO AS EARLY AS THU EVENING WITH SURGE
OF WARMER AIR /H85 TEMPS MAYBE AS WARM AS +6C/ WASHING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRI. WARMING EVENTUALLY MAKES IT TO SFC WITH
HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 30S IF NOT INTO LOW 40S FOR PARTS OF
WESTERN CWA. UNTIL WARMING MAKES IT TO SFC...THE WARM AIR ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN THE SNOW THAT DEVELOPS IN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN THU
AFTN INTO THU NIGHT TO CHANGE TO LIQUID PRECIP FM WEST TO EAST LATE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI. PRECIP COULD BE ENHANCED DEPENDING ON STRENGTH
OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. TEMPS WILL BE ON
THE RISE BUT LINGERING COLD TEMPS NEAR SFC COULD RESULT IN FZRA AND
ICING ISSUES AT LEAST BRIEFLY FOR PARTS OF CWA. SINCE S FLOW IS
STRONG AS SEEN BY THE H85 WINDS NEAR 50 KTS INTO WI ON THU NIGHT AS
THE SFC HIGH IS MORE EAST OF HERE VERSUS NORTHEAST /LIMITING COLD
DRY EASTERLY SFC FLOW THAT WOULD TEMPER SFC WARMING/...THINK THE
WARMING AT THE SFC WILL ARRIVE PRETTY QUICKLY SO MIXED PRECIP SHOULD
CONVERT TO RAIN EVEN AT THE SFC LATER FRI MORNING INTO FRI AFTN.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION WINTRY MIX AND ICE POTENTIAL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
TREND IS FOR COOLER TEMPS TO RETURN NEXT SAT ONCE THE LARGE SFC LOW
AND WARM FRONT PASS TO THE EAST. JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AT THAT TIME. CONSENSUS GUIDANCE UTILIZED FOR TEMPS WHICH
BROUGHT TEMPS BACK INTO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
WINDS BACKING SW AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES E ACROSS AREA HAVE
LIFTED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF KCMX LATE THIS EVENING.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES INTO SUN AFTERNOON. A S-SE
FLOW DEVELOPING LATER SUN AFTERNOON ALONG WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO KSAW AND
KIWD WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR TOWARD EVENING. CIGS WILL LOWER
TOWARD MVFR AT KCMX BY LATE SUN EVENING. SSE FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING
SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO KSAW BY LATE EVENING AS WELL.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HI PRES DEPARTING TO THE E AND
A LO PRES TROF APPROACHING FROM THE W...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS TODAY
OVER THE LAKE TO INCREASE TO S WINDS UP TO 30 KTS TONIGHT. THE
HIGHEST WINDS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER OVER THE E
HALF...WHERE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. THESE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON MON UNDER A WEAKENING GRADIENT. AFTER A
PERIOD OF RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS LATER ON MON AND MON
NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG NNW WINDS THAT WILL AT LEAST
APPROACH 35 KT GALES FOR A SHORT TIME WILL DEVELOP TUE NIGHT
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEST CHANCE FOR THESE GALES TO 35
KTS WILL BE OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E HALF. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH
WED WITH ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER HIGH PRES RIDGE. BUT STRONGER SSE WIND
UP TO 30 KTS WILL ARRIVE ON THU UNDER A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS HI SHIFTING TO THE E AND ANOTHER APPROACHING LO PRES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
408 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP UPR TROF OVER
SE CANADA SLOWLY WEAKENING AND ALLOWING A SHRTWV RDG AXIS WITH 12HR
H5 HGT RISES UP TO 100M TO BRING LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE TO THE CWA.
SOME LK CLDS/LIGHT LES IS STILL LINGERING OVER THE TIP OF THE
KEWEENAW AND IN THE SN BELTS E OF MUNISING UNDER AREA OF H85 TEMPS
AOB -20C/LLVL NW FLOW...BUT SUBSIDENCE HAS HAD A SGNFT IMPACT ON
LIMITING THE INTENSITY OF THIS PCPN. ELSEWHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED.
UNDER THE MOCLR SKIES ACRS THE W AND CENTRAL/PWAT NEAR 0.05 INCH OR
30 PCT OF NORMAL/LGT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HI PRES PASSING THRU
WI...TEMPS AT SOME OF THE INTERIOR COLD SPOTS IN THAT AREA HAVE
FALLEN WELL BLO -20F. LOOKING TO THE W...THERE ARE TWO SHRTWVS OF
INTEREST. THE STRONGEST IS SLIDING ESEWD THRU THE DAKOTAS...WHILE
THE OTHER DISTURBANCE IS MOVING E INTO FAR SRN MANITOBA. DESPITE
VERY DRY LLVL AIR DEPICTED ON THE 00Z MPX RAOB... SOME LO/MID CLDS
AHEAD OF THESE SHRTWVS ARE PUSHING E THRU MN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON CLD/POP TRENDS THIS
AFTN/TNGT ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCES TO THE W AND INCRSG SLY FLOW/
WAA UNDER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AS THE WI HI PRES SHIFTS TO THE
E. BIGGEST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LES OFF LK MI WITH THE
INCRSG S WIND.
TODAY...STRONGER SRN MOST SHRTWV TO THE W IS FCST TO SLIDE TOWARD
THE LOWER LKS. SINCE ACCOMPANYING DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IS
PROGGED TO STAY TO THE S OF UPR MI...MODELS SHOW VERY DRY MID LVL
AIR LINGERING OVER UPR MI. SOME MID LVL MSTR IS FCST TO MOVE INTO
THE WRN CWA LATER TODAY AHEAD OF THE WEAKER NRN DISTURBANCE...WHICH
IS FCST TO REACH NEAR INL BY 00Z MON. BUT DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF INCRSG
S WIND UNDER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN HI PRES SHIFTING TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC AND FALLING MSLP IN MN SHOULD KEEP THE W PCPN FREE
DESPITE THE INCRSG MID CLDS. THE SHORTER TIME GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON GENERATING SOME LGT LES OFF LK MI BY 18Z WITH SSE SFC-
H925 FLOW FLOWING UP THE LONG AXIS OF LK MI. WHILE THE ORIENTATION
OF THE FLOW UP LK MI AND H85 TEMPS REBOUNDING ONLY TO ARND -15C ARE
FAVORABLE...THE DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS IN PLACE PER THE 00Z GRB RAOB
AS WELL ACYC NATURE OF THE H925 FLOW/LO INVRN BASE NEAR 4K FT AGL
AWAY FM DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH TWO SHRTWVS TO THE W SHOULD
LIMIT COVERAGE OF SN SHOWERS/POPS AND ESPECIALLY SN TOTALS. WHILE A
FEW PLACES COULD PICK UP AN INCH OF SN...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE
LESS. INCRSG SUN ANGLE/A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AWAY FM THE LK CLDS
STREAMING OFF LK MI AND AHEAD OF DEEPER MID LVL MSTR MOVING IN FM
THE W SHOULD ALLOW VERY LO TEMPS THIS MRNG TO RECOVER CLOSER TO
NORMAL THIS AFTN.
TNGT...ARRIVAL OF SOME DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF NRN
SHRTWV TNGT IN THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT SLY FLOW UP THE LONG AXIS
OF LK MI AND H85 TEMPS FCST TO REMAIN AS LO AS ABOUT -13C OVER NRN
LK MI THRU 12Z MON WL ALLOW FOR SOME LK ENHANCEMENT OF THE LES IN
THE 06Z-12Z TIME TNGT. MODELS SHOW SOME SHARPER LLVL CNVGC IMPACTING
PORTIONS OF THE SE CWA AS FAR E AS THE GARDEN PENINSULA BY 12Z.
CONSIDERING THE FAVORABLE DEPTH OF THE DGZ AFTER THE ARRIVAL OF THE
DEEPER MSTR...SUSPECT SN FALL RATES COULD REACH 1-2 INCHES PER HR
UNDER THIS AXIS OF CNVGC. ALTHOUGH A GOOD NUMBER OF THE HI RES
MODELS INDICATE THIS AXIS OF LLVL CNVGC WL BE RATHER TRANSIENT...
SOME DO SHOW A SLOWER DRIFT THAT COULD RESULT IN SOME ADVY SN
TOTALS. AWAY FM THE LK MI ENHANCEMENT...ANY SN WL BE LGT...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OVER THE W/NW NEAR LK SUP WHERE THE S WIND WL
DOWNSLOPE. LO TEMPS TNGT WL BE MUCH WARMER THAN THIS MRNG WITH
INCRSG MSTR/STEADY SSW FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016
LONG TERM STARTS 00Z MON WITH A SHORTWAVE NEAR SRN LAKE MICHIGAN
THAT WILL CROSS LAKE HURON BY 12Z MON AND THEN MOVE INTO
QUEBEC...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL MN THAT WILL MOVE OVER
OR JUST S OF THE CWA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AFTERNOON...AND YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW THE SECOND BY ABOUT 12 HOURS. NOT
REALLY LOOKING FOR A LOT OF SYNOPTIC QPF...BUT THE FORCING/MOISTURE
WILL ENHANCE LES OFF LAKE MICHIGAN IN THE SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
ACCOMPANYING SFC TROUGH. SLY WIND LAKE EFFECT IS ALWAYS TRICKY...BUT
LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD START UP AROUND 00Z MON AND REACH A PEAK
BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z MON WHILE SHIFTING E AND ENDING BEFORE 00Z TUE.
AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOST SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS
MENOMINEE...DELTA...AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES...AND POSSIBLY INTO
COUNTIES JUST N OF THOSE. THINK WITH S WINDS...THINK MENOMINEE
COUNTY SEEING MUCH LES IS NOT AS LIKELY. OVERALL...ONLY EXPECTING 2
TO MAYBE 3 INCHES IN THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...AROUND AN INCH OR LESS.
MAY SEE SOME LIGHT LES OVER W WIND SNOWBELTS MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL BUT ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
WILL PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT. NOT LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS.
SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TUE AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE. THIS TURNS
WINDS OUT OF THE NW-NNW BY TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND DROPS 850MB
TEMPS TO AROUND-15Z BY 00Z WED AND -19C BY 12Z WED. A SFC RIDGE
MOVES THROUGH BY 00Z THU...ENDING MOST OR ALL LES. NOT EXPECTING
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN CHANGING WIND DIRECTIONS AND
QUICK ENTRANCE OF THE RIDGE.
COULD SEE A MORE POTENT SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...RAIN...AND FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
EVEN IN THE GENERAL STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS LOW AS MODELS
VARY FROM RUN TO RUN AND DISAGREE MODEL TO MODEL. CERTAINLY LOOKS
LIKE A WARMUP IS IN STORE FOR AT LEAST THU NIGHT AND FRI...BUT CAN
NOT SAY MUCH ELSE WITH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY WENT WITH A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIP IN THE FORECAST...WITH CONSENSUS POPS FIELDS OTHERWISE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
WINDS BACKING SW AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES E ACROSS AREA HAVE
LIFTED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF KCMX LATE THIS EVENING.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES INTO SUN AFTERNOON. A S-SE
FLOW DEVELOPING LATER SUN AFTERNOON ALONG WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO KSAW AND
KIWD WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR TOWARD EVENING. CIGS WILL LOWER
TOWARD MVFR AT KCMX BY LATE SUN EVENING. SSE FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING
SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO KSAW BY LATE EVENING AS WELL.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HI PRES DEPARTING TO THE E AND
A LO PRES TROF APPROACHING FROM THE W...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS TODAY
OVER THE LAKE TO INCREASE TO S WINDS UP TO 30 KTS TONIGHT. THE
HIGHEST WINDS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER OVER THE E
HALF...WHERE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. THESE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON MON UNDER A WEAKENING GRADIENT. AFTER A
PERIOD OF RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS LATER ON MON AND MON
NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG NNW WINDS THAT WILL AT LEAST
APPROACH 35 KT GALES FOR A SHORT TIME WILL DEVELOP TUE NIGHT
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEST CHANCE FOR THESE GALES TO 35
KTS WILL BE OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E HALF. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH
WED WITH ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER HIGH PRES RIDGE. BUT STRONGER SSE WIND
UP TO 30 KTS WILL ARRIVE ON THU UNDER A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS HI SHIFTING TO THE E AND ANOTHER APPROACHING LO PRES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1221 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP TROF OVER SE CANADA
INTO THE NE CONUS WITH THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR WELL E OF HERE
NOW. UPSTREAM...NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST IS MOVING ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES. CLOSER TO HOME...WITH LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING 850MB
TEMPS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR RANGING FROM AROUND -19C W TO -25C E...
LES CONTINUES. HOWEVER...UNDER RISING HEIGHTS/SUBSIDENCE...
INVERSION IS DOWN TO AROUND 3KFT W AND 5KFT E. SO...LES IS LIGHT...
BUT STILL EFFECTIVE AT REDUCING VIS OVER THE E DUE TO SMALL
SNOWFLAKE SIZE. WELL AWAY FROM LAKE EFFECT...IT`S BEEN A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY OVER SCNTRL UPPER MI.
LINGERING LIGHT LES WILL END FROM W TO E TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRES
RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE FCST AREA. WITH MODERATING AIR MASS
RESULTING IN THE DGZ LIFTING INTO THE SHALLOW CONVECTIVE
LAYER...MIGHT BE ABLE TO FLUFF UP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION WHERE STRENGTHENING LAND BREEZES FOCUS CONVERGENCE...
MOST LIKELY IN THE E HALF OF ALGER/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. RIDGE
WILL ARRIVE OVER WRN UPPER MI EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE E
OVERNIGHT. LOSS OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WITH BACKING WINDS WILL BE
REPLACED BY SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS IN WAA PATTERN AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. THAT SAID...ALL AREAS
WILL SEE AT LEAST A SHORT PERIOD OF VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. IT STILL APPEARS THE CNTRL FCST AREA WILL HAVE THE
LONGEST PERIOD OF EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING DUE TO CLEAR SKIES
TO START THE EVENING...LATER ARRIVAL OF HIGH CLOUDS AND LONGER
PERIOD OF LIGHT/CALM WIND. AS WITH PREVIOUS FCSTS...MAINTAINED A MIN
TEMP FCST AT OR BLO THE LOWEST GUIDANCE WITH THE TRADITIONAL COLDEST
SPOTS FALLING TOWARD -20F. MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS WILL FALL BLO
0F.
ON SUN...SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT WILL TRACK ESE
WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS AND BEST ISENTROPIC
ASCENT PASSING S OF UPPER MI. MODEL TREND OF RECENT DAYS TO PUSH
FORCING/PCPN FARTHER S HAS HELD UP IN LATEST MODEL RUNS. AS A
RESULT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY -SN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE TO REACH
THE FCST AREA SUN. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LES OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
UNDER DEVELOPING/INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEPARTING HIGH PRES. 850MB TEMPS AROUND -17C AT 12Z RISE TO AROUND
-14C BY 00Z MON...CERTAINLY LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LES. LARGE SCALE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND INVERSIONS AT 4-5KFT WILL LIMIT INTENSITY OF
LES. IN ADDITION...MOST HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICT THE LES
MOSTLY AS A BAND LIFTING N ON A WIND CONVERGENCE ZONE. WHILE THIS
MAY LEAD TO A BURST OF MDT SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY WITH DGZ SOLIDLY IN
THE CONVECTIVE LAYER...THE HEAVIER SNOW WOULD NOT LAST LONG. FOR
NOW...EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UNDER 1 INCH...BUT NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR LOCALIZED INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IF THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE IS STRONG.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016
LONG TERM STARTS 00Z MON WITH A SHORTWAVE NEAR SRN LAKE MICHIGAN
THAT WILL CROSS LAKE HURON BY 12Z MON AND THEN MOVE INTO
QUEBEC...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL MN THAT WILL MOVE OVER
OR JUST S OF THE CWA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AFTERNOON...AND YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW THE SECOND BY ABOUT 12 HOURS. NOT
REALLY LOOKING FOR A LOT OF SYNOPTIC QPF...BUT THE FORCING/MOISTURE
WILL ENHANCE LES OFF LAKE MICHIGAN IN THE SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
ACCOMPANYING SFC TROUGH. SLY WIND LAKE EFFECT IS ALWAYS TRICKY...BUT
LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD START UP AROUND 00Z MON AND REACH A PEAK
BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z MON WHILE SHIFTING E AND ENDING BEFORE 00Z TUE.
AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOST SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS
MENOMINEE...DELTA...AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES...AND POSSIBLY INTO
COUNTIES JUST N OF THOSE. THINK WITH S WINDS...THINK MENOMINEE
COUNTY SEEING MUCH LES IS NOT AS LIKELY. OVERALL...ONLY EXPECTING 2
TO MAYBE 3 INCHES IN THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...AROUND AN INCH OR LESS.
MAY SEE SOME LIGHT LES OVER W WIND SNOWBELTS MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL BUT ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
WILL PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT. NOT LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS.
SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TUE AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE. THIS TURNS
WINDS OUT OF THE NW-NNW BY TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND DROPS 850MB
TEMPS TO AROUND-15Z BY 00Z WED AND -19C BY 12Z WED. A SFC RIDGE
MOVES THROUGH BY 00Z THU...ENDING MOST OR ALL LES. NOT EXPECTING
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN CHANGING WIND DIRECTIONS AND
QUICK ENTRANCE OF THE RIDGE.
COULD SEE A MORE POTENT SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...RAIN...AND FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
EVEN IN THE GENERAL STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS LOW AS MODELS
VARY FROM RUN TO RUN AND DISAGREE MODEL TO MODEL. CERTAINLY LOOKS
LIKE A WARMUP IS IN STORE FOR AT LEAST THU NIGHT AND FRI...BUT CAN
NOT SAY MUCH ELSE WITH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY WENT WITH A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIP IN THE FORECAST...WITH CONSENSUS POPS FIELDS OTHERWISE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
WINDS BACKING SW AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES E ACROSS AREA HAVE
LIFTED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF KCMX LATE THIS EVENING.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES INTO SUN AFTERNOON. A S-SE
FLOW DEVELOPING LATER SUN AFTERNOON ALONG WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO KSAW AND
KIWD WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR TOWARD EVENING. CIGS WILL LOWER
TOWARD MVFR AT KCMX BY LATE SUN EVENING. SSE FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING
SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO KSAW BY LATE EVENING AS WELL.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016
AS HIGH PRES RIDGE PASSES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT UNDER 15KT FOR A TIME. ONCE THIS HIGH
SHIFTS E OF THE AREA...S WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 25-30KT SUN INTO
MON MORNING UNDER THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
HIGH AND AN APPROACHING LOW PRES TROF IN THE PLAINS. THERE COULD BE
A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS SUN NIGHT OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER MON...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG NNW
WINDS UP TO 30KT WILL DEVELOP TUE/TUE NIGHT FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH WED WITH ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER HIGH
PRES RIDGE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
717 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 711 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
THE KDLH RADAR HAS SHOWN SNOW SHOWERS...SOME MODERATE TO
HEAVY...MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND FAR NORTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE MODELS WERE NOT DOING A GOOD
JOB HANDLING THIS PRECIP. WE UPDATED POPS TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. STEEP LAPSE RATES WERE IN PLACE AND WERE
AIDING IN PRODUCING THE SNOW SHOWERS. WE ALSO INCREASED SNOW
ACCUMULATION TONIGHT. SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WHERE SNOW SHOWERS MOVE OVER THE SAME
AREA...MOST LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. MOST
AREAS WILL RECEIVE LESS THAN AN INCH.
EARLIER RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGESTS EVEN HIGHER SNOWFALL OVER FAR
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...BUT RECENT VERSIONS HAVE BACKED OFF QUITE A
BIT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF SNOW/FZDZ TRANSLATING
EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MN AND INTO THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
REGION. THE PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A ZONE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION...ACCOMPANIED BY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS 500HPA
TEMPS ARE AROUND NEGATIVE 30C. THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
BE SNOW. HOWEVER...AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
WITH ELEVATED DEW POINTS...SATURATED LOW LEVELS AND BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATING FAVORABLE CLOUD TOP TEMPS FOR SUPER COOLED
WATER DROPLETS.
HAVE INCREASED POPS THIS EVENING FOR TWIN PORTS AND ARROWHEAD
ZONES TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. HOWEVER...THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.
ELSEWHERE....AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS THE REGION
REMAINS SITUATED IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF APPROACHING CANADIAN
COLD FRONT.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD AIR WILL MAKE ITS PUSH INTO THE
BORDERLAND ZONES LATE TONIGHT...WITH 850HPA TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE NEGATIVE TEENS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THE
COLD AIR AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS ACROSS MN AND WI EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LINGERING COLD AIR OVER THE
REGION AND CLEAR SKIES WILL MAKE IT ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT THE
RETURN FLOW MAY MEAN A QUICK BOTTOMING OUT OF THE TEMPS THEN
BECOMING NEARLY STEADY OR MAYBE EVEN RISE OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE
INTENSE WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THURSDAY WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING FROM THE ROCKIES. WITH
A 50 KT 850HPA LOW LEVEL JET IT WON`T TAKE LONG FOR WARM AIR TO
GET INTO OUR AREA. BY THURSDAY EVENING AN 8H WARM NOSE OF +8 TO
+18C IS PROGGED WELL INTO CENTRAL MN AS SFC LOW MOVES OVER MN.
THESE WARM TEMPS WILL BE HELPING TO PRODUCE MIXED TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE SFC LOW AND FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY.
THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES OF TRACK OF THE LOW THE GFS KEEP
SFC LOW OVER FAR NRN MN WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS SFC LOW OVER SRN
MN. MORE RESOLUTION WILL BE GIVEN IN THE FORECASTS AS TO TIMING
AND TYPES AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 539 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS COVERED THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING...AND WE
EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER OVERNIGHT BEFORE RISING ON TUESDAY.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING TURNING WINDS FROM
SOUTHERLY TO NORTHWEST. STEEP LAPSE RATES...THE FRONT AND AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ALL COMBINE TO PRODUCE MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE
SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS THAT OCCUR AS WELL...AND KDLH WAS
SHOWING THOSE EARLY THIS EVENING JUST NORTH OF THE TWIN PORTS
INTO NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTY. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR THEM TO
SLOWLY SINK SOUTH AND THEY WILL IMPACT KDLH THROUGH 02Z. THE
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLING THE PRECIP ALL THAT WELL TODAY. WE
INCREASED THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS
EVENING. IN ADDITION TO ANY SNOW SHOWERS...SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
MAY ALSO OCCUR AS SATELLITE WAS SHOWING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AS
WARM AS -10C IN SPOTS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY CAUSING
CEILINGS TO RISE AND BECOME SCATTERED FOR MOST AREAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 20 25 0 18 / 70 30 0 10
INL 10 16 -10 17 / 10 10 0 10
BRD 22 27 1 21 / 20 20 0 10
HYR 20 31 4 22 / 60 50 10 10
ASX 22 31 7 20 / 70 50 40 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
333 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
Watching a couple areas of developing precipitation early this
morning. The first is over Iowa and eastern Nebraska ahead of a
shortwave trough dropping out of the Northern Plains. The second is
across eastern KS into southwest MO ahead of a strong 60-kt low-level
jet. The latter area should continue to expand into west central and
into central Missouri through the morning, where forecast soundings
suggest a mix of sleet and snow, and possibly light freezing rain or
freezing drizzle as well. Given the very dry air just off the ground,
current thinking is that sleet may be the more common precip type
across these areas this morning with only light accumulation.
However, if freezing rain/drizzle starts to dominate then a winter
weather advisory may need to be expanded into areas near and south of
US 50.
Both areas of precipitation should merge and overspread much of
northern, central and eastern Missouri later this morning.
Precipitation across these areas should be mostly snow, with as much
as 1 to 2 inches possible near the US 63 corridor where a winter
weather advisory remains in effect through the afternoon. Warm air
advection later today will allow for a quick warm up with much of
western MO and eastern KS rising into the middle to upper 40s by
afternoon.
The remainder of the forecast looks increasingly spring-like as
ridging to the west gradually makes its way into the center of the
nation by Thursday and Friday. This will allow temperatures to rise
into the 50s Monday through Wednesday, and well into the 60s Thursday
and Friday with a few 70 degree readings not out of the question. The
only mentionable chance for precipitation will arrive with another
weak clipper system Monday night and early Tuesday. Could see some
light snow across north central Missouri with this system and mostly
rain elsewhere.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1138 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016
Widespread VFR cloud cover around 6k ft agl expected to lower into
MVFR category towards sunrise with patchy freezing drizzle and sleet
forming over parts of west central MO, mostly just south and east of
Kansas City and spread towards central MO during the morning hours.
Further north areas of light snow expected to form over north central
and northeast MO with some accumulations the further east you go.
Precipitation will quickly exit east and likely be out of most of the
forecast area by early afternoon with ceilings likewise improving to
VFR.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ008-
017-025-033.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
1156 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 0217 PM CST SAT Fib 13 2016
Cold and dry air has invaded much of the Missouri Ozarks region this
afternoon. There are some areas across central Missouri that has
barely reached 20 degrees. The main story for tonight into early
tomorrow will be the threat of a light wintry mix and freezing
drizzle. The latest Hi-Res forecast models all indicate very light
precis to begin to develop between midnight and 3 am across
western and southern Missouri. The latest RUC and HRRR even shows
some convective like precis which indicates pockets of sleet
possible.
The overall message for late tonight into tomorrow morning is we
are expecting only very light amounts of a light wintry mix but
could be impacts on roads and travel in the morning. Ground and
road temperatures have had time to cool down over the past 24
hours. The freezing line will settle somewhere near the Missouri
and Kansas border tonight before it begins to retreat eastward
during the morning hours. There will be very light precis falling
across the Missouri Ozarks with the better potential for higher
amounts across the eastern Ozarks. Freezing drizzle and some light
sleet is expected across the western half of the area and a wintry
mix with some light snow is expected across the eastern half of
the area early on. This will slowly transition to just a cold
light rain or drizzle late tomorrow morning into the early
afternoon from west to east.
We will issue a winter weather advisory for light amounts and
possible travel impacts in the morning. Like what we saw a few
weeks ago...it does not take much freezing drizzle to cause big
travel problems in the Ozarks region. All areas in the advisory
area can expect a very light glaze of ice possible. A dusting of
light sleet or light snow can be expected east of Highway 65 with
up to an inch of snow possible from the Highway 63 corridor and
eastward. Most area will warm up above freezing by Sunday
afternoon with some areas out across far western Missouri near 50.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 0217 PM CST SAT Fib 13 2016
There may be some fog developing late Sunday night into Monday
morning. This will need to be watched because temperatures again
may be around or slightly below freezing. The best potential for
fog will be along and south of the I-44 corridor across southern
Missouri.
Milder temperatures return on Monday. A quick moving upper level
system across the Midwest on Tuesday may bring a few more clouds
and a slight chance of showers across central Missouri and the
eastern Ozarks. Decent upper Level ridging will develop across
the central U.S. for the middle and end of next week. This will
allow for way above average temperatures for the region. Highs
will be in the 60s and possible lower 70s. A preview of Spring is
coming next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR ceilings are expected to lower as
lift and eventually precipitation increases as an upper level
disturbance/jet max approaches from the wnw. Freezing
rain/drizzle (KSGF and KBBG) and liquid rain/drizzle (KJLN) are
expected to develop toward 09-10z then end toward 18z. Believe
lower clouds will hang in at KBBG and KSGF for a longer period
after the precip ends versus KJLN.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Sunday for MOZ055>058-
066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...DSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1142 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 825 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016
Have made a significant adjustment to the winter weather advisory
by starting it later based on radar and short range model trends.
Regional radar loops shows the northwest-southeast band of snow from
northwest IA through northeast MO will miss the CWA overnight. the
southern edge may nick Schuyler county but no appreciable
accumulations expected. Inspection of the progged IRK sounding
reveals a desert-like sub-cloud region which will evaporate any snow
which falls out of the mid level deck. All that said still expecting
moderately strong isentropic ascent to top-down saturate this arid
zone late tonight resulting in light snow to develop across northern
MO with the best chance for accumulating snow over northeast MO.
Will also be watching for the development of freezing drizzle over
west central MO...mainly south of KC...during the pre-dawn hours.
Still looks like a small window for occurrence before the warm front
pushes through. Trend in HRRR reflectivity output has been to
decrease coverage and intensity as well as contain it more over the
southwestern counties. 00z NAM supports this.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016
Main forecast challenges deal with weather type and headlines. The
forecast area is really being split by wintry weather, both
spatially and temporally, with snowfall in our northeast and light
freezing drizzle in our south. The snowfall will likely start earlier
(late this evening) than the freezing drizzle, which may hold off
unto closer to sunrise. Strong isentropic ascent will eventually
saturate the lowest several thousand feet of the atmosphere in north
central to northeastern Missouri. Have delayed onset of snow several
hours based on forecast soundings,the large temperature/ dewpoint
depressions on surface observations and the relatively high cloud
bases. Forecast soundings for the Kirksville area saturate around
midnight or perhaps a little later. Have waited until then to
increase PoPs into the likely range. Snow amounts in our northeastern
zones are still expected to be in the 1" to as much as 3" range in
Schuyler County. After coordination with neighbors, have issued a
winter weather advisory for our extreme northeastern counties,
including the Kirksville area.
The other aspect of this wintry episode is the potential for
freezing drizzle in the southern half of the forecast area.
Confidence in this is quite a bit lower than with the snowfall in
the northeast. First, the lowest several thousand feet never really
saturate. Second, by the time saturation begins to lower, the warm
front lifts through, warms the surface above freezing and desaturates
the sounding aloft. So there really only looks like a marginal
potential for several hours when lift is maximized coincident with
the greatest amount of saturation. This seems to be around the 12Z
time frame +/- an hour or two. However, freezing drizzle can have a
major impact on travel as it can be deceptive in it`s ability to
slicken roads. So it`ll be important for people who have to travel
Sunday morning to understand that roads may be slick. But for now,
confidence just isn`t high enough to issue an advisory at this time.
Another clipper system will move through Monday night/ Tuesday
morning. Forecast soundings show the lowest several thousand feet to
be above freezing, even all the way into the northeastern portions of
the forecast area. So for snow, the wave should have little impact
with regards to wintry weather in the forecast area and we should see
just rain or perhaps a rain/snow mix in our northern zones.
The rest of the forecast looks quiet regarding precipitation. An
upper level ridge will spread east with low level flow out of the
south. This will help temperatures soar to well above normal levels
by Thursday into Friday. Highs may be in the 70s in parts of the
forecast area Thursday and potentially into Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1138 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016
Widespread VFR cloud cover around 6k ft agl expected to lower into
MVFR category towards sunrise with patchy freezing drizzle and sleet
forming over parts of west central MO, mostly just south and east of
Kansas City and spread towards central MO during the morning hours.
Further north areas of light snow expected to form over north central
and northeast MO with some accumulations the further east you go.
Precipitation will quickly exit east and likely be out of most of the
forecast area by early afternoon with ceilings likewise improving to
VFR.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday for MOZ008-
017-025-033.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
819 PM MST MON FEB 15 2016
.UPDATE...
WITH THE PRESSURE RISES ALREADY INTO THE AREA AND WINDS DYING
DOWN...HAVE CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND WARNING. ALSO...ALTHOUGH AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
BIGHORN MOUNTAINS...WITH WINDS DYING DOWN HAVE CANCELLED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS WELL. HAVE ADJUSTED POP AND WIND GRIDS
TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. ALSO TWEAKED THE WEATHER GRIDS TO
BRING THE RAIN SNOW MIX INTO BILLINGS GIVEN REPORTS FROM THE
AIRPORT. REIMER
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH A MODERATELY STRONG
SHORTWAVE WORKING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WAVE WAS
GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL ZONES. STRONG DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WAS LIMITING SHOWER COVERAGE OVER WESTERN ZONES. ASCENT FROM
THE SHORTWAVE WAS KEEPING THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE DAY ALOFT.
VAD WIND PROFILER WAS SHOWING 45KTS JUST FOUR THOUSAND FEET OFF
THE SURFACE. STRONGEST WIND GUST AT BILLINGS HAS BEEN 53MPH AND
THIS AIDED BY A FEW SHOWERS. STRONGEST SURFACE PRESSURE RISES WERE
NOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN MONTANA AND PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY EVENING. 700MB WINDS WEAKEN A BIT
WITH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES...BUT ASCENT WILL BE REPLACED BY
SUBSIDENCE. CONFIDENCE NOT TERRIBLY HIGH THAT WARNING LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE MET EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT ENOUGH THERE TO KEEP THE
HIGHLIGHT GOING.
LIVINGSTON HAS REMAINED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE DAY
AND SURFACE WINDS HAVE TURNED TO THE WEST. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW
WINDS DECREASING ALOFT OVER THE WEST WITH SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXING. STRONGEST SURFACE PRESSURE RISES WILL SLIDE
EAST OF LIVINGSTON EARLY THIS EVENING. THE LACK OF GAP FLOW WOULD
LEAD TO A LESS THAN IDEAL SITUATION FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS.
GUIDANCE WINDS HAVE THE TREND FOR DECREASING SURFACE WINDS THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES QUITE A BIT THIS EVENING...BUT RELOADS AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE INDICATED THE POSSIBILITY OF HITTING
CRITERIA TUESDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP THE GRAPHIC OUT AND MENTION OF
IT IN THE HWO FOR THE MORNING HOURS...BUT WILL LET THE EVENING AND
MIDNIGHT CREWS GET A CLOSER LOOK ON POSSIBLY ISSUING ANOTHER
HIGHLIGHT FOR THIS.
SNOW HAS BEEN STEADY IN THE BIGHORNS THIS AFTERNOON. SNOTELS VARY
IN ACCUMULATION...BUT THE CONSENSUS OF 4-6 INCHES SEEMS TO BE ABOUT
THE MEDIUM SNOW RANGE. MODELS...INCLUDING HIGH RESOLUTION...ALL
TAPER THE SNOW OFF THROUGH THE EVENING. WOULD EXPECT ANOTHER 2-4
INCHES THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORY GOING.
MEAN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS TO THE WEST OF MONTANA FOR TUESDAY.
ATMOSPHERE LOOKS UNSTABLE ONCE AGAIN BUT MID LEVEL WINDS WERE
WEAKER. 700MB WINDS WERE AROUND 45KTS AND NOT LINKED UP TOTALLY
WITH LOWER LEVEL WINDS. DOWNWARD MOTION SHOULD BE WEAKER TOO WITH
MUCH WEAKER SURFACE PRESSURE RISES. WINDS SHOULD MATERIALIZE...BUT
NOT EXPECTING WINDS AT LEVELS OF TODAY OR THIS WEEKEND. WILL OPT
TO NOT ISSUE A HIGHLIGHT...AND DUE TO THE BELIEF THAT THIS WILL
NOT BE A HIGHLIGHT WORTHY EVENT...WILL REMOVE MENTION FROM THE HWO
FOR THE PLAINS. SHOULD BE A WINDY DAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
MORE THAN THAT.
DID TAKE A FEW DEGREES OFF FORECAST HIGHS FOR TUESDAY. MIX DOWNS
WOULD HAVE HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S. GFS PLACES A SWATH
OF MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL ZONES LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS LEADS TO MORE
CONFIDENCE OF THIS POSSIBILITY...SO RAISED POPS TO SCATTERED.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW...SO A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW LOOKS TO BE THE EVENT...WITH LIMITED IMPACT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS
DRIER AS A FLAT RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. TWH
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
A PACIFIC TROUGH IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD SPREAD SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT THU AFTERNOON-
EVENING. IT SHOULD ALSO DROP SURFACE PRESSURES EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...SETTING UP A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR THU
AFTERNOON INTO FRI. GFS SHOWING 3-HOUR SFC PRESSURE RISES OF AROUND 6
MB AROUND 00Z FRI. THUS EXPECT ANOTHER WINDY PERIOD FOR THU
AFTERNOON-FRI...WITH POSSIBLY WINDIEST PERIOD LATE THU AFTERNOON-
EVENING.
DRY WX EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA FRI-SUN AS UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING DOMINATES REGIONAL WEATHER. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING NEAR
OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO OUR WESTERN CWA
ON SAT.
LASTLY THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A QUICK CLIPPER PASSING THROUGH
AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BUT TIMING AND TRACK DIFFERENCES
MEANT LOW CONFIDENCES IN THE POP AND TEMP FIELDS. RMS/TWH
&&
.AVIATION...
WINDS HAVE DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS AT KLVM SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 40KTS OVERNIGHT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN TO NEAR
50KTS TUESDAY MORNING. SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL
BE OBSCURED...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. TWH/REIMER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 033/059 036/059 043/058 038/055 035/052 029/051 030/048
62/W 11/B 13/W 21/N 11/B 11/B 12/W
LVM 038/056 036/058 041/052 036/049 032/046 025/046 026/044
71/N 11/N 14/W 31/N 22/W 21/B 12/W
HDN 031/060 033/060 036/060 037/055 033/053 028/050 029/047
53/W 11/B 13/W 31/N 11/B 11/B 12/W
MLS 028/053 029/056 034/059 040/056 033/052 029/048 030/049
25/W 10/B 13/W 41/N 11/N 11/B 12/W
4BQ 029/055 030/058 035/062 038/055 032/052 028/048 027/048
54/W 10/B 03/W 41/N 11/B 11/B 12/W
BHK 025/044 026/051 032/060 038/053 030/049 027/044 026/045
24/W 10/B 11/B 51/N 11/N 11/B 12/J
SHR 029/056 029/057 034/059 032/051 029/051 025/047 022/046
82/J 10/B 03/W 31/N 12/W 11/B 12/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
535 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT 20Z
WITH MILD TEMPERATURES FOUND ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA.
MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE TIMING OF THE FEATURE AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH EXTENT AND TYPE OF PRECIP. 19Z RUC BRINGS
THE SURFACE LOW INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA PRIOR TO 06Z AND INTO
CENTRAL MISSOURI BY 12Z. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST AREAS THROUGH 06Z PRECIP SHOULD BE
LIQUID DURING THAT TIME THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW
MIX NORTH TO SOUTH AS TEMPERATURES COOL ALOFT AND SYSTEM TRACKS
TO THE SOUTHEAST. SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT WHERE SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY INDICATED.
LATEST DAY1 OUTLOOK FROM SPC SHOWS AN AXIS FOR GENERAL THUNDER
INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. COOLER AIR FOLLOWS BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WESTERN
RIDGE STARTS TO MOVE EAST WITH SPRING LIKE TEMPERATURES FOR THE
AREA ON THURSDAY. SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA WHICH HAVE BEEN SNOW
FREE FOR MOST OF THE MONTH MAY APPROACH 70.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
MILD PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS FLOW REMAINS NEARLY
ZONAL. SOME PRECIP MAY CLIP NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AS FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BUT OTHERWISE LOOKS DRY AFTER THAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 533 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
A BRIEF SHOT OF PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY AT ALL TAF SITES. THE RAIN
OR RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE SHOWERY IN NATURE...THUS HAVE KEPT VFR
VISIBILITY PREVAILING WITH TEMPOS FOR LOWER VIS. HAVE HELD ONTO
MVFR CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY...AND COULD END UP SEEING IFR
CEILINGS FOR SOME OF THAT PERIOD...THOUGH DID NOT YET INCLUDE IFR
CEILINGS IN THE TAF. DO THINK CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE LATER IN THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY FROM AROUND
THE TIME OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVAL THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MAYES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
516 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES. A POTENT SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH A
SURFACE/LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE CIRRUS DECK...WHICH EXTENDS INTO THE
DAKOTAS AND MONTANA BASED ON IR/WV...HAS BEEN RATHER DENSE TODAY
WHICH HAS SLOWED THE RISE IN TEMPS. DESPITE MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAK RADAR ECHOES OVER THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA TODAY...ABUNDANT DRY LEVEL AIR HAS JUST LED TO VIRGA.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...EXPECT SATURATION TO SLOWLY WORK DOWN
TO ABOUT 800-850HPA AS INDICATED IN NAM...GFS...AND RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. THE RAP ALSO SHOWS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL LIFT TO
SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
BASED ON SOME VIRGA IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND LAPSE RATES OF
7-8C/KM DIRECTLY ABOVE THE SFC INVERSION FROM RAP
SOUNDINGS...EXPANDED SCHC MENTION TO COVER THE REST OF THE CWA. A
120+KT 250HPA JET ENTERS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...ADDING TO THE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND DIVERGENCE. WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S THROUGH 06Z AND SFC WET BULB AOA 0C...EXPECT
PREDOMINANT PTYPE TO BE RAIN. DRY AIR ENTRAINS INTO THE SYSTEM
FROM THE WEST BY 06Z...LIMITING PRECIP CHANCES TO NORTH CENTRAL
NEB. CUT MENTION TO SPRINKLES NEAR KONL WITH BULK OF MOISTURE
STAYING BELOW 800HPA AND THE LOSS OF APPRECIABLE LIFT. A FEW
SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN AT THE END...BUT MOISTURE REALLY SHUTS OFF
WHEN THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WOULD SUPPORT FZRA OR RASN. MADE
LITTLE ADJUSTMENT TO MIN TEMPS AS THEY GENERALLY LIE NEAR MOS
GUIDANCE...PRIMARILY MAV AND ECM. TEMPS REMAIN RATHER MILD DUE TO
CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND GUSTY WINDS. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR WIND SPEED DURING THE FROPA AS NORTHWEST 850HPA
WINDS OF 35-45KTS ARE SHOWN BY THE NAM AND RAP. CONFIDENCE IN MIN
TEMPS A LITTLE LOWER SOUTH OF I-80 WHERE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
AND LIGHTENING OF WINDS TOWARD DAWN IS POSSIBLE...LEADING TO
COOLER TEMPS.
TUESDAY...TRENDED MAX TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR SO FOR MOST
LOCATIONS BUT STILL REMAIN MILD WITH 50S SW AND 40S NC. MODELS
SHOW CAA FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND 850HPA TEMPS BELOW 0C UNTIL 00Z
WED. ANOTHER MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY IS LIKELY AS THE MOISTURE PLUME AS
SHOWN BY WV IMAGERY EXTENDS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST. ALSO...ANOTHER
BOUNDARY EXITS THE PANHANDLE IN THE AFTERNOON...HELPING ENHANCE
LOWER LEVEL LIFT. THE NAM SHOWS BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 290K
ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AFTER 18Z AND 500HPA TEMPS NEAR -20C. FAR
WEST/PANHANDLE...WHERE DOWNGLIDE WILL TAKE EFFECT EARLIER AFTER
THE BOUNDARY PASSAGE AND 850HPA WAA...MAX TEMPS MAY BE ON THE
COOL SIDE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
LONG TERM DOMINATED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE IF
ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WORK
WEEK THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL MIGRATE EAST AND AMPLIFY OVER THE
PLAINS. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA WITH A THERMAL
RIDGE PEAKING ON THURSDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
RAIN SHOWER IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE NEB/S DAKOTA BORDER...HOWEVER
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE DRY LOWER LEVELS IS TOO MUCH TO
OVERCOME AND NOTHING REACHING THE GROUND. BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK
RIDGING REBUILDS QUICKLY ACROSS THE ROCKIES...KEEPING TEMPS ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS INTO THE WEEKEND.
WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE THURSDAY AS MODELS
SURGE 850 MB TEMPS WELL INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 C. MOS
GUIDANCE IS ALSO UNSEASONABLY HIGH WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SHOULD HAVE MOST OF THE SNOW MELTED BY THEN AND MODELS INDICATING
BREEZY CONDITIONS SO MIXING SHOULD BE REALIZED AND FORECAST
FOLLOWS CLOSE TO GUIDANCE. RECORDS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE LOWER
70S...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AS A RECORD HIGH MAY BE REACHED.
ALSO GOING TO HAVE TO WATCH FIRE CONDITIONS...AS OFTEN WITH
RECORD WARMTH IS A HIGH FIRE DANGER. MIN RH VALUES LIKELY NEAR 20
PERCENT IN A FEW LOCATIONS...AND COULD BE LOWER.
WHILE THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL KNOCK DOWN TEMPS
FOR THE WEEKEND...GUIDANCE STILL HAS TEMPS REBOUNDING TO AROUND
60...WHICH WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER COOL DOWN EXPECTED. LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT AND FORECAST REMAINS DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
CEILING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE ABOVE 6000 FEET AGL WITH
VISIBILITY GREATER THAN 5SM. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
AN UPPER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS LATE TONIGHT. THE
RESULTING WIND AT 1500-2000 FEET AGL WILL BE 300-340 AND INCREASE TO
50KT. IN THE NORTH...THE WIND WILL TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE THOUGH
SURFACE FRICTION WILL REDUCE IT TO 18G26KT. IN THE SOUTHWEST...THE
WIND IS LIKELY TO REMAIN CUT OFF FROM THE SURFACE BY A SURFACE
TEMPERATURE INVERSION. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IN LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY
UNLESS THE 2000 FOOT WIND CAN TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
317 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON IS
PRECIPITATION. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING WHILE ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES NORTHWEST NEBRASKA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THE 12Z MODEL SUITE ALONG WITH HRRR AND
RAP GENERALLY AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE...SO MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES. WEAK RADAR ECHOES
OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND THE PANHANDLE TODAY HAVE BEEN
THE RESULT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND VIRGA...VERIFIED BY WEB CAMERAS
AND SURFACE OBS. THE GFS...ECM...AND NAM SHOW SUFFICIENT 500-700 HPA
FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONTINUED LOW LEVEL DRY AIR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE RAP AND NAM BRING SATURATION AS LOW AS
850HPA ACROSS THE NORTH WHILE THE HRRR SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
NORTH AND FAR SOUTHWEST. DESPITE THE DRY AIR IN THE SOUTH...RAP
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AMPLE LOW LEVEL LIFT TO SUPPORT A LIGHT
SHOWER IF EVAPORATIVE COOLING OCCURS. KEPT SCHC MENTION GENERALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SPRINKLES/
FLURRIES FOR THE REMAINDER. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE GENERALLY
SUPPORTS RAIN AS 0-2KFT AGL TEMPS AND SFC WET BULB REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. HOWEVER...DID MENTION RASN AFTER 03Z AS SATURATION AND
LIFT OCCUR IN THE DGZ. MOST OF THE FORCING AND LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVE EAST AFTER 06Z WHEN ALL SNOW WOULD BE BETTER
SUPPORTED. KEPT MIN TEMPS ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR
CLOUDS...850HPA TEMPS ABOVE 0C...AND WINDS STAYING NEAR 10 KTS.
MONDAY...TRENDED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO TO FOLLOW THE ECM AND
MAV MORE CLOSELY. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
DAY...WAA AT 850HPA AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS SHOULD OVERCOME. THE NEXT
WAVE OF MOISTURE ENTERS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR MAY HANG ON THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS MORE EVIDENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH. INCLUDED SCHC AS EARLY AS 18Z FAR NORTHWEST...BUT BETTER
CHANCE OCCURS AFTER 00Z AS LOW LEVEL MOISTENING AND LIFT INCREASE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A FAIRLY POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE NEAR OR JUST OVER THE COAST OF CNTL BRITISH COLUMBIA
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE MISSOURI BASIN MONDAY NIGHT. THE PTYPE
IS RAIN SHOWERS AS THE FCST AREA WILL BE ON THE SRN OR WARM SIDE OF
THE DISTURBANCE. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S.
COOLING ALOFT COULD PERHAPS PRODUCE A MIX BUT THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE
IS RAIN.
THE MORNING RUN OF THE ECM SHOWS SHOWERS AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE
80 WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS ALONG OR NORTH OF
NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2. THE ECM SHOWS MUCH MORE ROBUST 700-500MB
MOISTURE BUT VERY MODEST SATURATION IN THE 850-700MB LAYER.
THE THREE GUIDANCE DATA SETS ARE VERY CLOSE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
LOWER 40S TO MID 50S. SOME MIDLEVEL COOLING IN THE MORNING WILL HAVE
TO BE OVERCOME. H850MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO 0C TO 8C BY LATE
AFTERNOON. A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WAS INDICATED IN THE MODELS.
THERMAL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
H850MB TEMPERATURES RISING TO 5C TO 10C. THIS SUPPORTS LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60. GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. SOME HIGH CIRRUS MAY BE
OVERHEAD IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THURSDAY IS THE BIG DAY. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE UNIDIRECTIONAL TO 700MB AND H850MB TEMPERATURES
RISE TO 15C TO 20C. HIGHS WILL EASILY RISE INTO THE 60S. THE GFS AND
ECM SHOW A LONG WAVE TROF FLUSHING WARM AIR ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE CNTL PLAINS. HIGH CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH A BAROCLINIC
LEAF POSITIONED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND MIDWEST COULD PLACE THE
FCST AREA IN NEARLY FULL SUN. LATER FORECASTS MAY RAISE HIGHS A BIT.
A BLEND OF GUIDANCE PLUS BIAS CORRECTION WAS THE BASIS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
A KINK SHOWED UP IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT FRIDAY. 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO 60 TO 75 KTS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE ECM AND GFS. COUPLED WITH A PV1.5 ANOMALY
AND 6 HR PRESSURE RISES OF 12-16MB...A PERIOD OF STRONG OR HIGH WIND
GUSTS COULD DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT. LATER FORECASTS WILL MONITOR
THIS POTENTIAL WIND EVENT.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND THIS SHOULD
SEND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA. H850MB TEMPERATURES
COOL TO 5C TO 10C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.
DOWNSLOPING WEST NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 25 TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT DEEP VERTICAL MIXING.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE SATURDAY AND A NEW SFC LOW FORMS ON THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS. NO SIGNIFICANT WARMING OR COOLING IS SHOWN AT
H850MB BUT WEAK WINDS SUGGEST A SHALLOWER MIXING HEIGHT. THE
FORECAST FOR HIGHS IN THE 50S WOULD APPEAR THE BEST FIT.
SOME SORT OF COLD FRONT IS SHOWN BY THE GFS...ECM AND GFS ENSEMBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT COOLING HIGHS INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50 SUNDAY. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DOUBLE BARREL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER SCNTL CANADA AND THE CNTL ROCKIES. THIS WOULD PUT THE
BRAKES ON ANY SORT ARCTIC AIR AS THE MILDER PACIFIC HIGH ACROSS THE
ROCKIES DOMINATES THE COLDER ARCTIC AIR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
MIDDAY MONDAY...AND STRATUS OVER NORTHERN/EASTERN NEBRASKA
AFFECTING KONL WILL SLOWLY LIFT THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...BUT VISBY OR CIG
RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. AMBIENT SURFACE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY STAY AROUND 10 KTS OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...SNIVELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1128 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016
SOME WILD WEATHER IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING WITH
LIGHTNING...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERAL WIND GUSTS 45 TO 57
MPH. THE SHORTWAVE TROF TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
IOWA/SOUTHERN WI/IL THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW WILL BE
FROM SD INTO MN/IA/IL THROUGH MORNING. OVERALL DID NOT MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS. NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND WESTERN CENTRAL IOWA SHOULD GET CLIPPED BY THE LIGHT SNOW WITH
AN INCH OR SO POSSIBLE. A FEW EARLIER HRRR RUNS WERE HINTING AT
POSSIBLE BANDING OF LIGHT SNOW FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER THE LATEST
HRRR DID NOT HAVE THIS. OUR OAX 00Z SOUNDING WAS SATURATED BETWEEN
H800 AND H850MB...WITH DRY AIR BELOW THIS. LIFT INCREASES AND
AROUND 09Z/10Z COULD SEE FLURRIES OR A DUSTING TOWARD TO THE
PLATTE RIVER/METRO AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES DIVING THROUGH THE
PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND WARMING TEMPERATURES...ARE THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.
STEEPENING NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS SHORTWAVES ROLLING THROUGH THAT FLOW TONIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT CARVE OUT A DEEPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN STATES. EACH OF THOSE
SHORTWAVES WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE PLAINS...BUT
TRACKS OF BOTH LOOK TO FAVOR AREAS TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST FOR
BEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS.
TONIGHTS SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
SYSTEM...AND ALONG WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT FROM THE TEENS OR LOWER 20S TO THE 25 TO 30
DEGREE RANGE BY SUNRISE. PRECIPITATION-WISE...ALREADY SEEING SOME
MID LEVEL REFLECTIVITIES SHOWING UP ON AREA RADARS AS WING OF MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BEGINS. EXPECT THAT AREA TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
AS WE HEAD TOWARD MIDNIGHT WHEN LAYERED FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS
MAXIMIZED. THAT SHIFTS TO THE EAST BY 12Z...TAKING BULK OF
PRECIPITATION WITH IT. SO OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS...BUT STILL SHOULD TOTAL JUST AN INCH
OR SO THERE.
BEHIND SHORTWAVE...MODEST MIXING REGIME WILL SET UP AS NORTHWEST
WINDS DOMINATE AND SOME DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. SHOULD
SEE SOME 40S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 30S HOLDING
IN THE NORTHEAST. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND COMPONENT WILL REMAIN INTO
MONDAY BEFORE NEXT SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO EJECT TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. THUS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD AS COMPARED TO
RECENT TEMPS...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 40S
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS WARMER IN THE SOUTH WHERE NO
SNOWCOVER EXISTS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS KICK IN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR SCENARIO IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AS TONIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE
TRACK FOCUSING BEST PRECIP CHANCES TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER A
BETTER INITIAL MOISTURE PROFILE SUGGESTS A BROADER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL RESULT WHEN WARM ADVECTION OVERSPREADS THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING. HAVE FAIRLY HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA THEN...WITH AREA SHIFTING INTO WESTERN IOWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE WITH MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURE PROFILE THAN TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR ALL BUT FAR NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR
SNOW MOST AREAS UNTIL FINER DETAILS CAN BE WORKED OUT. AND WITH
THE POTENTIAL MIX EXPECTED...AND RELATIVELY MILD TEMPS
OVERNIGHT...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE MINIMAL.
NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND SHORTWAVE AGAIN
OFFERS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COOLING WITH NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION NOTED. THUS HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...WITH 30S IN THE NORTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE FORECAST.
NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE REPLACED BY MODEST RIDGING BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS TROUGH DIGS JUST OFF THE WEST COAST AND EASTERN
TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. GRADUALLY WARMING 850
TEMPERATURES FROM SUB ZERO TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO THE MID TEENS
THURSDAY EVENING DEMONSTRATE THE MAGNITUDE OF BACKGROUND
WARMING...SUGGESTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S LOOK ON TRACK
BY THEN. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP AS WELL.
BY FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE RIDING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH
A TROUGH/COOL FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. AND ONLY BRIEF COOLING IS FORECAST FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE WARM ADVECTION AGAIN KICKS IN FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016
SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD AFFECT KOFK FROM 09-12Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS...BECOMING MVFR BY 09Z-12Z AT KOFK..THEN BACK TO VFR BY
15Z. MVFR AT KOMA 13Z-19Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS AT OR GREATER THAN 12
KNOTS INITIALLY...DROPPING BELOW BY 12-13Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1034 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
WITH HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND SNOW CHANGING
TO RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY IN NORTHERN JEFFERSON
COUNTY ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
EVENING BEFORE ENDING. BEYOND THIS STORM SYSTEM... A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER AIR LINGERING THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK BEFORE MORE MODERATE TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY THIS EVENING IS SHOWING
STRONGER RETURNS ARE FILLING IN ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW YORK
AND THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS EVENING. RADAR RETURNS ARE MATCHING UP
NICELY WITH HRRR GUIDANCE IN SHOWING A PERSISTENT AREA OF LOWER
RETURNS ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER WHERE LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR
REMAINS STUBBORNLY ENTRENCHED. NONETHELESS...GIVEN CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...REMAIN CONFIDENT IN THE HRRR WHICH ALSO SUPPORTS CURRENT
FORECAST THAT GENERATES A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW ALONG A LINE RUNNING
ROUGHLY FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY
TO THE VICINITY OF WATERTOWN.
SNOWFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVERNIGHT
WITH PEAK SNOWFALL RATES OCCURRING TUESDAY MORNING AS A ZONE OF
STRONG DEFORMATION PIVOTS ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RESPONSIBLE SURFACE LOW
BEGINS TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW WILL KEEP WESTERN NY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE... THUS STILL EXPECT MUCH OF WESTERN NY TO SEE 6
TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW... WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 12 TO 18 INCHES
LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE BETWEEN BUFFALO
AND ROCHESTER WHERE THE BEST DEFORMATION AND BANDED SNOW DEVELOPS.
THE BULK OF THE SNOW WILL IMPACT WESTERN NY BETWEEN BETWEEN 3AM
AND EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR DEVELOPING BETWEEN ABOUT
5AM AND NOON IN THE FAVORED AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL BETWEEN
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER.
NEAR ROCHESTER AND ALONG THE GENESEE VALLEY... SIMILAR TO WESTERN NY
SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND BECOME HEAVIEST TOWARD SUNRISE
TUESDAY. HOWEVER... THERE WILL BE A SHARP TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN
SNOW TO THE WEST AND RAIN TO THE EAST THAT DEVELOPS NEAR THE GENESEE
VALLEY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG THIS TRANSITION ZONE WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW... WITH LOCATIONS JUST WEST OF THE TRANSITION ZONE
LIKELY THE SEE SOME OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS... WHILE
LOCATIONS JUST TO THE EAST WILL SEE MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS WITH A PERIOD
OF RAIN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. PRESENTLY... ROCHESTER LOOKS TO BE
JUST ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS AXIS... BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW
HOURS WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO A WINTRY MIX DURING THE DAY.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 9 TO 18 INCHES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
CORNERS OF THESE COUNTIES WITH LOWER AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST CORNERS OF THESE COUNTIES.
FROM WAYNE COUNTY EAST TO LEWIS COUNTY (EXCLUDING JEFFERSON
COUNTY)... A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL TRACK NORTHWARD
ACROSS THIS AREA OVERNIGHT BEFORE MUCH WARMER AIR SURGES INTO THE
AREA BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE SNOW TO QUICKLY TRANSITION THROUGH
A WINTRY MIX TO ALL RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THESE LOCATIONS
CAN EXPECT 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW TONIGHT BEFORE JUST SOME SLUSHY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON TUESDAY BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO ALL
RAIN. RAIN MAY ACTUALLY BE HEAVY AT TIMES TUESDAY WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO ON TUESDAY. RAIN WILL THEN CHANGE BACK TO
SNOW TUESDAY EVENING WITH A BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
PRODUCING A QUICK 2 TO 5 INCHES AS THE DEFORMATION AXIS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK ACROSS THE AREA.
JEFFERSON COUNTY...JEFFERSON COUNTY WILL EVOLVE SIMILARLY TO
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THERE (SEE SECTION ABOVE)... HOWEVER THE
IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY ALONG THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. WITH MODELS MORE CONSISTENT ON THE TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW... IT REMAINS VERY LIKELY THAT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
FUNNEL COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE DOWN THE VALLEY. THE STRONG SURGE
OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW RIDING OVER THE SUB-
FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE VALLEY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY
TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING JUST NORTH OF WATERTOWN ALONG THE RIVER
VALLEY... WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF ICE
ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS COULD BRING DOWN NUMEROUS
TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES
ALONG THE VALLEY.
IN ADDITION... THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK HAS PROMPTED A FLOOD WATCH. STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED... WITH AROUND AN INCH AND HALF TO TWO
INCHES OF THAT FALLING AS RAIN. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN AND
SOME SNOW MELT MAY RESULT IN FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. SMALL CREEKS MAY ALSO SEE SIGNIFICANT RISES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ON WEDNESDAY A RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES. A PERIOD OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN
THE DPVA REGIME AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR A
FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. A MODEST AMOUNT OF LAKE MOISTURE AND
ALSO UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF SOME LIGHT SNOW
EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WHERE SOME VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. EXPECT HIGHS NEAR THE
MID FEBRUARY AVERAGES WITH LOW 30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND UPPER 20S
HIGHER TERRAIN.
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST. THIS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BUT MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL GREATLY LIMIT INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE. EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION TO BE AN INCH OR LESS FROM
ROCHESTER TO OSWEGO COUNTY AND ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. A
COLDER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TEENS ON THE LAKE PLAINS
AND SINGLE DIGITS INLAND.
THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER LAKES. ANY LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL END EARLY IN
THE DAY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WILL BRING A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S IN MOST AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST TO
NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR HOLDING OFF
ANY PRECIP FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY A STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT WARMER AIR INTO OUR REGION WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 40S FRIDAY AND MID 40S SATURDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THIS
WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE PRECIP TO FALL AS LIGHT RAIN. THE NORTH
COUNTRY WILL STAY COOLER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. THIS MAY ALLOW PRECIP TYPE TO
REMAIN MORE WET SNOW WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND FROM
THE LAKE.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
BRINGS A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKES WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
AND COLDER TEMPERATURES...WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY. EITHER SCENARIO WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSER
TO AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT SNOW IS BEGINNING TO FILL IN
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY AND THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE IFR CONDITIONS
HAVE DEVELOPED. MVFR CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS. NONETHELESS...LIGHT SNOW IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
AND IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP IN INTENSITY AFTER 06Z AS A STRONG
DEFORMATION ZONE SETS UP INVOF THE GENESEE VALLEY. WITH THIS EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO IFR EVEN ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER.
AS THE MAIN SNOWBAND COALESCES ALONG A LINE ROUGHLY FROM KJHW TO
KFZY...EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS IN +SN WITHIN THIS BAND WITH IFR
CONDITIONS BRACKETING MUCH OF WESTERN NY. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS
LINE...EXPECT MIXED PRECIP WITH SLEET/FREEZING RAIN.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
AND THE VICINITY OF KROC THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY
WITH MIXED PRECIP MOVING INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY INCLUDING KART
BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN LATER IN THE DAY. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AND DRAGS THE COLDER AIR AND SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEFORMATION ZONE BACK ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE...MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WRN NY BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER
IN THE DAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. IFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY VFR AS THIS SNOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR WITH SNOW IN WESTERN NEW YORK AND SNOW
CHANGING TO RAIN IN CENTRAL NEW YORK.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW.
&&
.MARINE...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NY STATE ON
TUESDAY... WITH NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY
AS THE LOW TRACKS TOWARD QUEBEC. HAVE ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR WINDS AND WAVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A VERY COMPLEX HYDRO EVENT WILL UNFOLD ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. SNOW WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THEN CHANGE TO RAIN EARLY TUESDAY
BEFORE GOING BACK TO SNOW BY EARLY EVENING. THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO FOCUS IN A CORRIDOR
ALONG AND JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 81.
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THE RAINFALL PLUS SOME SNOW MELT MAY RESULT IN
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND POSSIBLY SMALL
CREEKS. THE NEW SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL INITIALLY ABSORB SOME OF THE
RAINFALL...BUT SHOULD THEN RELEASE WATER FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE WARMEST.
WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...WE HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR ONTARIO...
WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA...OSWEGO...JEFFERSON...AND LEWIS COUNTIES.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EST TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NYZ004>008-014.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ004>008.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ001>003-
010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR LOZ042>044.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CHURCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...CHURCH
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
942 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION TODAY AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF
NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING AND BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO
THE REGION BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND
EVENTUALLY RAIN. ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FELT AS COLD AIR STAYS THERE
LONGER THAN THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 942 PM EST MONDAY...WHILE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS
TAKEN EFFECT, THE WINTER STORM WARNING WILL TAKE EFFECT AT THE TOP
OF THE HOUR. FORECAST IS HOLDING UP PRETTY WELL. WITH THIS UPDATE
I`VE MADE SOME SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS ACROSS ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND USED A BLEND OF 18Z GFS/01Z RAP FOR A REFRESH
TO PRECIPITATION TYPES. THAT CHANGE ESSENTIALLY INTRODUCES
SNOW/SLEET ABOUT AN HOUR SOONER THAN THE PRIOR FORECAST. NO
CHANGES TO FORECAST QPF OR SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS WERE NECESSARY.
RECENT METARS FROM RUTLAND AND SPRINGFIELD INDICATE THE
LEADING EDGE OF STEADIER SNOW HAS NOW INTRUDED INTO RUTLAND AND
WINDSOR COUNTIES. THIS SHIELD OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SNOW WILL OCCASIONALLY
FALL AT MODERATE INTENSITY AT TIMES AS AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS
STRENGTHENS AND BEGINS TO PIVOT TO THE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO
SHARPENING THERMAL GRADIENT TIED TO ADVANCING SURFACE LOW NOW OVER
NORTHERN GEORGIA. WARM AIR ALOFT ALSO CONTINUES TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD, AND I DO NOTE THE RAP MODEL 925 0C LINE HAS NOW
ADVANCED TO INTERIOR CT. THIS MATCHES UP REALLY WELL WITH OKX
DUAL-POL RADAR CORRELATION COEFFICIENT DATA WHICH SUGGEST MIXED-
PHASE P-TYPES. EXPECT THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS WARM AIR ALOFT TO
SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN VT BY 07Z OR SO WITH SNOW MIXING IN WITH SLEET
AT THAT POINT IN TIME, WITH MIX LINE ADVANCING NORTHWARD TOWARD
NORTHERN VERMONT AND THE ADIRONDACKS BEFORE THE TUESDAY MORNING
COMMUTE. TRAVEL DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPACTED.
PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FOLLOWS...
WITH THIS UPDATE THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK
SPECIFICALLY OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WAS REPLACED WITH A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE COMBINED THREATS OF SNOW AND FREEZING
RAIN. THE WARNING IS VALID FROM 03Z TONIGHT THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.
ADDITIONALLY THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM 00Z THIS EVENING THROUGH 18Z
TUESDAY FOR THREATS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW.
MONDAY EVENING SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AS A
BROAD HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE IN THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A BROAD INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
WITH LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AND SPREADING NORTH AS A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LIFTING NORTH TO THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 06Z THIS EVENING.
WITH THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION, OUR "OVERNIGHT LOWS" WILL BE
SEEN RIGHT AT 00Z AND THEN CONTINUOUSLY WARM THROUGH THE LOW TO
MID 20S OVERNIGHT AS 925MB TEMPS WARM FROM AROUND -12 CURRENT TO
BETWEEN -1 TO -3 AT DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 412 PM EST MONDAY...WITH STRONG FORCING AND ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH MOISTURE THERE WILL BE PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL
THROUGH THE MORNING ON TUESDAY AS THE SNOW BEGINS TO MIX OVER
TOWARDS RAIN. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND TEMPS TOMORROW WILL HAVE A CHANCE
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT OF REACHING 50 DEGREES. EXPECT TEMPS FOR MOST
OF THE NORTH COUNTRY TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING WEST
AND AS OF THE 12Z GFS THE LOW TRACKS RIGHT THROUGH THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. AS THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE, AN
IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE DEVELOPS AND WILL LEAD TO THE HEAVIEST
AXIS OF PRECIP FALLING IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND JUST WEST
OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. TOTAL LIQUID PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE WITH VERMONT LIKELY BEING CLOSER TO THE 1
INCH SIDE AS A DRY SLOT WORKS IN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
LOW PULLS OUT OF THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO TUESDAY EVENING THE BACK
SIDE OF THE WILL WRAP AROUND AND THE FLOW SHOULD GO NORTHWEST
WHICH WOULD GENERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND TRANSITION BACK TO
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE FAVOURABLE UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF THE GREENS IN VERMONT. AS THIS HAPPENS HOWEVER MOST OF
THE MOISTURE WILL BE EXITING QUICKLY AND THUS I DONT EXPECT A
SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTION TO SNOW TOTALS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON
TUESDAY.
CONCERNING PRECIP TOTALS AND TYPE... FIRST JUST THE NUMBERS.
EXPECT STORM TOTAL SNOW TO BE BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES OVER VERMONT AND
ESSEX/CLINTON COUNTY IN NEW YORK. IN SOUTHERN FRANKLIN AND ACROSS
SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY IN NEW YORK STORM TOTAL SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
BE BETWEEN 4-8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGH POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. CONCERNING ICE, EXPECT GENERALLY A TRACE TO
A TENTH ACROSS THE N NORTH COUNTRY EXPECT FOR THE IMMEDIATE SAINT
LAWRENCE WHERE COLDER AIR WILL HOLD ON LONGER AND BECOME TRAPPED
IN NORTHEAST FLOW THUS ALLOWING FOR BETWEEN 0.25-0.50" OF ICE
ACCUMULATION.
THE ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT THREAT IS THE RAIN FREEZING ON GROUND
SURFACES THAT ARE BELOW FREEZING. WITH LATEST METRO GUIDANCE
POINTING TO ROAD SURFACES NOT LIKELY TO WARM UP ABOVE FREEZING
TILL AFTER 18Z THE THREAT FOR RAIN FREEZING ON UNTREATED SURFACES
IS SIGNIFICANT EVEN WELL AFTER THE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE
FREEZING. SO ICY TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AT
LEAST MID DAY ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 401 PM EST MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO
RACE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NEWFOUNDLAND WEDNESDAY WHILE THE PARENT
UPPER TROUGH STILL LAGS BEHIND TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL START THE MORNING UNDER A MID-LEVEL DRY
SLOT AND GENERALLY DRY, BUT AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES,
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND FROM LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE
WITH LAKE EFFECT, IT`S DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO PLACE WHERE THE
BAND WILL SET UP SO HAVE HIGHLIGHTED SOME HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THINKING BEST
CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY WITH A GENERAL 2-3", WHILE AREAS EAST SEE A
DUSTING TO PERHAPS 2". A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BASED ON TIMING OF
THE STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER
20S ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, TO UPPER 30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST
VERMONT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS FOLLOW SUIT WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO NORTHERN NEW YORK TO TEENS/LOW 20S SOUTHEAST VERMONT.
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY
AND IS REPLACED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
WHICH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, A CLIPPER-LIKE
SURFACE LOW AND POTENT 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFT FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE AREA WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN
STRENGTH OFF THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. THIS ALLOWS THE 500MB
TROUGH TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AND CUTOFF FOR A SHORT PERIOD
SATURDAY BEFORE THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE ZONAL SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY KEEPING THE WEATHER
RELATIVELY ACTIVE TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES, MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING IN LINE FAVORING THE
WARMER SOLUTIONS HINTED AT BY THE 00Z GFS AND CONTINUED WITH THE
12Z SUITE OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. THIS IS LARGELY IN PART TO
THE MORE NORTHERLY SURFACE LOW TRACK, WITH HIGHS DURING THE MOST
ACTIVE PERIOD OF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PUSHING INTO THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S. ALOFT TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW 0C SO WE`RE MAINLY
LOOKING AT MIXED PTYPE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SNOW LIKELY
FRIDAY NIGHT CHANGING TO VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. BOUNDARY COOLS ENOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO
SUPPORT SNOW AREA-WIDE BUT WARMS AGAIN ABOVE 0C SUNDAY/MONDAY FOR
MORE RAIN/SNOW MIX THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE MORE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...CEILINGS LOWERING THROUGH THE PERIOD TO
MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND PLAIN RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING A STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY BETWEEN 02Z-05Z TUESDAY...AND AROUND
07Z-08Z AROUND KMSS. EXPECTING SNOW TO CHANGE TO A MIX OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT AS WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE
REGION MAINLY BETWEEN 08Z-11Z TUESDAY...AND THEN EXPECTING
FREEZING RAIN TO CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN AROUND 13Z-15Z TUESDAY...AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. FREEZING RAIN MAY
CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY IN THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL
LIKELY KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING MOST OF THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY AT KMSS.
OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS STORM
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA. A CLIPPER SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY
AND MAY BRING SOME MVFR CONDITIONS.
12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. A MIX OF RAINA ND SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR VTZ001>012-
016>019.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ028-030-
031-034-035.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
029-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...EVENSON/WGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
720 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION TODAY AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF
NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING AND BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO
THE REGION BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND
EVENTUALLY RAIN. ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FELT AS COLD AIR STAYS THERE
LONGER THAN THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 640 PM EST MONDAY...WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES STILL REMAIN
VALID, WITH THE ADVISORY STARTING AT 7 PM AND WARNING FOR ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY STARTING AT 10 PM.
SPOTTY/INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO OVERSPREAD
MOST OF VERMONT AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OF NEW YORK. HOWEVER, THE
MORE APPRECIABLE STEADY SNOWFALL (LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY) IS
ADVANCING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT A GOOD CLIP, ITS LEADING EDGE NOW
ESSENTIALLY RUNNING ALONG THE MA/CT BORDER WESTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN HUDSON VALLEY REGION OF NY. THIS LATTER SNOW IS
ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING AND WELL- ADVERTISED AXIS OF 925 MB
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. I`VE UPDATED THE TIMING OF CATEGORICAL
LIGHT SNOWS INTO SOUTHERN VT EARLIER BY A COUPLE OF HOURS, TO
BETTER FOCUS THE CATEGORICAL POPS TO COINCIDE WITH THE START TIME
OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. BY SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION, THE STEADIER SNOW
LOOKS TO ARRIVE INTO SOUTHERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES TOWARD
01Z.
SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE AND BE OF GENERALLY LITTLE
CONSEQUENCE, WITH STEADIER SNOW BUILDS NORTHWARD ACROSS ALL OF
VERMONT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT SURFACE LOW NOW OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND THE AXIS OF
STRONGEST FRONTOGENESIS BEGINS TO PIVOT NORTHWESTWARD. AS THAT
HAPPENS, LOW-LEVEL THERMAL STRUCTURE WILL CHANGE SUCH THAT
SOUTHERN VT WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO SLEET AS SNOW IS
ONGOING ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. IT`S A COMPLEX MESS, BUT
THOSE FORECAST IDEAS ALL WERE HANDLED REALLY WELL SO NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO P-TYPE TIMING.
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS EVEN AS PRECIPITATION IS FALLING THIS EVENING. SO I`VE
ALSO INCREASED WINDS UPWARD A BIT USING A BLEND OF THE BTV- 12 KM
AND RAP SURFACE WINDS.
PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FOLLOWS...
WITH THIS UPDATE THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK
SPECIFICALLY OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WAS REPLACED WITH A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE COMBINED THREATS OF SNOW AND FREEZING
RAIN. THE WARNING IS VALID FROM 03Z TONIGHT THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.
ADDITIONALLY THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM 00Z THIS EVENING THROUGH 18Z
TUESDAY FOR THREATS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW.
MONDAY EVENING SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AS A
BROAD HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE IN THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A BROAD INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
WITH LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AND SPREADING NORTH AS A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LIFTING NORTH TO THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 06Z THIS EVENING.
WITH THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION, OUR "OVERNIGHT LOWS" WILL BE
SEEN RIGHT AT 00Z AND THEN CONTINUOUSLY WARM THROUGH THE LOW TO
MID 20S OVERNIGHT AS 925MB TEMPS WARM FROM AROUND -12 CURRENT TO
BETWEEN -1 TO -3 AT DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 412 PM EST MONDAY...WITH STRONG FORCING AND ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH MOISTURE THERE WILL BE PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL
THROUGH THE MORNING ON TUESDAY AS THE SNOW BEGINS TO MIX OVER
TOWARDS RAIN. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND TEMPS TOMORROW WILL HAVE A CHANCE
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT OF REACHING 50 DEGREES. EXPECT TEMPS FOR MOST
OF THE NORTH COUNTRY TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING WEST
AND AS OF THE 12Z GFS THE LOW TRACKS RIGHT THROUGH THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. AS THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE, AN
IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE DEVELOPS AND WILL LEAD TO THE HEAVIEST
AXIS OF PRECIP FALLING IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND JUST WEST
OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. TOTAL LIQUID PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE WITH VERMONT LIKELY BEING CLOSER TO THE 1
INCH SIDE AS A DRY SLOT WORKS IN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
LOW PULLS OUT OF THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO TUESDAY EVENING THE BACK
SIDE OF THE WILL WRAP AROUND AND THE FLOW SHOULD GO NORTHWEST
WHICH WOULD GENERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND TRANSITION BACK TO
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE FAVOURABLE UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF THE GREENS IN VERMONT. AS THIS HAPPENS HOWEVER MOST OF
THE MOISTURE WILL BE EXITING QUICKLY AND THUS I DONT EXPECT A
SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTION TO SNOW TOTALS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON
TUESDAY.
CONCERNING PRECIP TOTALS AND TYPE... FIRST JUST THE NUMBERS.
EXPECT STORM TOTAL SNOW TO BE BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES OVER VERMONT AND
ESSEX/CLINTON COUNTY IN NEW YORK. IN SOUTHERN FRANKLIN AND ACROSS
SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY IN NEW YORK STORM TOTAL SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
BE BETWEEN 4-8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGH POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. CONCERNING ICE, EXPECT GENERALLY A TRACE TO
A TENTH ACROSS THE N NORTH COUNTRY EXPECT FOR THE IMMEDIATE SAINT
LAWRENCE WHERE COLDER AIR WILL HOLD ON LONGER AND BECOME TRAPPED
IN NORTHEAST FLOW THUS ALLOWING FOR BETWEEN 0.25-0.50" OF ICE
ACCUMULATION.
THE ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT THREAT IS THE RAIN FREEZING ON GROUND
SURFACES THAT ARE BELOW FREEZING. WITH LATEST METRO GUIDANCE
POINTING TO ROAD SURFACES NOT LIKELY TO WARM UP ABOVE FREEZING
TILL AFTER 18Z THE THREAT FOR RAIN FREEZING ON UNTREATED SURFACES
IS SIGNIFICANT EVEN WELL AFTER THE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE
FREEZING. SO ICY TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AT
LEAST MID DAY ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 401 PM EST MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO
RACE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NEWFOUNDLAND WEDNESDAY WHILE THE PARENT
UPPER TROUGH STILL LAGS BEHIND TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL START THE MORNING UNDER A MID-LEVEL DRY
SLOT AND GENERALLY DRY, BUT AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES,
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND FROM LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE
WITH LAKE EFFECT, IT`S DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO PLACE WHERE THE
BAND WILL SET UP SO HAVE HIGHLIGHTED SOME HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THINKING BEST
CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY WITH A GENERAL 2-3", WHILE AREAS EAST SEE A
DUSTING TO PERHAPS 2". A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BASED ON TIMING OF
THE STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER
20S ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, TO UPPER 30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST
VERMONT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS FOLLOW SUIT WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO NORTHERN NEW YORK TO TEENS/LOW 20S SOUTHEAST VERMONT.
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY
AND IS REPLACED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
WHICH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, A CLIPPER-LIKE
SURFACE LOW AND POTENT 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFT FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE AREA WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN
STRENGTH OFF THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. THIS ALLOWS THE 500MB
TROUGH TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AND CUTOFF FOR A SHORT PERIOD
SATURDAY BEFORE THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE ZONAL SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY KEEPING THE WEATHER
RELATIVELY ACTIVE TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES, MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING IN LINE FAVORING THE
WARMER SOLUTIONS HINTED AT BY THE 00Z GFS AND CONTINUED WITH THE
12Z SUITE OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. THIS IS LARGELY IN PART TO
THE MORE NORTHERLY SURFACE LOW TRACK, WITH HIGHS DURING THE MOST
ACTIVE PERIOD OF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PUSHING INTO THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S. ALOFT TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW 0C SO WE`RE MAINLY
LOOKING AT MIXED PTYPE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SNOW LIKELY
FRIDAY NIGHT CHANGING TO VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. BOUNDARY COOLS ENOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO
SUPPORT SNOW AREA-WIDE BUT WARMS AGAIN ABOVE 0C SUNDAY/MONDAY FOR
MORE RAIN/SNOW MIX THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE MORE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...CEILINGS LOWERING THROUGH THE PERIOD TO
MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND PLAIN RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING A STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY BETWEEN 02Z-05Z TUESDAY...AND AROUND
07Z-08Z AROUND KMSS. EXPECTING SNOW TO CHANGE TO A MIX OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT AS WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE
REGION MAINLY BETWEEN 08Z-11Z TUESDAY...AND THEN EXPECTING
FREEZING RAIN TO CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN AROUND 13Z-15Z TUESDAY...AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. FREEZING RAIN MAY
CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY IN THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL
LIKELY KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING MOST OF THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY AT KMSS.
OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS STORM
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA. A CLIPPER SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY
AND MAY BRING SOME MVFR CONDITIONS.
12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. A MIX OF RAINA ND SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR VTZ001>012-
016>019.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ028-030-
031-034-035.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
029-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...EVENSON/WGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
641 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION TODAY AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF
NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING AND BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO
THE REGION BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND
EVENTUALLY RAIN. ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FELT AS COLD AIR STAYS THERE
LONGER THAN THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 640 PM EST MONDAY...WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES STILL REMAIN
VALID, WITH THE ADVISORY STARTING AT 7 PM AND WARNING FOR ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY STARTING AT 10 PM.
SPOTTY/INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO OVERSPREAD
MOST OF VERMONT AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OF NEW YORK. HOWEVER, THE
MORE APPRECIABLE STEADY SNOWFALL (LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY) IS
ADVANCING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT A GOOD CLIP, ITS LEADING EDGE NOW
ESSENTIALLY RUNNING ALONG THE MA/CT BORDER WESTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN HUDSON VALLEY REGION OF NY. THIS LATTER SNOW IS
ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING AND WELL- ADVERTISED AXIS OF 925 MB
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. I`VE UPDATED THE TIMING OF CATEGORICAL
LIGHT SNOWS INTO SOUTHERN VT EARLIER BY A COUPLE OF HOURS, TO
BETTER FOCUS THE CATEGORICAL POPS TO COINCIDE WITH THE START TIME
OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. BY SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION, THE STEADIER SNOW
LOOKS TO ARRIVE INTO SOUTHERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES TOWARD
01Z.
SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE AND BE OF GENERALLY LITTLE
CONSEQUENCE, WITH STEADIER SNOW BUILDS NORTHWARD ACROSS ALL OF
VERMONT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT SURFACE LOW NOW OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND THE AXIS OF
STRONGEST FRONTOGENESIS BEGINS TO PIVOT NORTHWESTWARD. AS THAT
HAPPENS, LOW-LEVEL THERMAL STRUCTURE WILL CHANGE SUCH THAT
SOUTHERN VT WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO SLEET AS SNOW IS
ONGOING ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. IT`S A COMPLEX MESS, BUT
THOSE FORECAST IDEAS ALL WERE HANDLED REALLY WELL SO NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO P-TYPE TIMING.
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS EVEN AS PRECIPITATION IS FALLING THIS EVENING. SO I`VE
ALSO INCREASED WINDS UPWARD A BIT USING A BLEND OF THE BTV- 12 KM
AND RAP SURFACE WINDS.
PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FOLLOWS...
WITH THIS UPDATE THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK
SPECIFICALLY OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WAS REPLACED WITH A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE COMBINED THREATS OF SNOW AND FREEZING
RAIN. THE WARNING IS VALID FROM 03Z TONIGHT THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.
ADDITIONALLY THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM 00Z THIS EVENING THROUGH 18Z
TUESDAY FOR THREATS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW.
MONDAY EVENING SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AS A
BROAD HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE IN THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A BROAD INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
WITH LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AND SPREADING NORTH AS A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LIFTING NORTH TO THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 06Z THIS EVENING.
WITH THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION, OUR "OVERNIGHT LOWS" WILL BE
SEEN RIGHT AT 00Z AND THEN CONTINUOUSLY WARM THROUGH THE LOW TO
MID 20S OVERNIGHT AS 925MB TEMPS WARM FROM AROUND -12 CURRENT TO
BETWEEN -1 TO -3 AT DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 412 PM EST MONDAY...WITH STRONG FORCING AND ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH MOISTURE THERE WILL BE PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL
THROUGH THE MORNING ON TUESDAY AS THE SNOW BEGINS TO MIX OVER
TOWARDS RAIN. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND TEMPS TOMORROW WILL HAVE A CHANCE
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT OF REACHING 50 DEGREES. EXPECT TEMPS FOR MOST
OF THE NORTH COUNTRY TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING WEST
AND AS OF THE 12Z GFS THE LOW TRACKS RIGHT THROUGH THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. AS THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE, AN
IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE DEVELOPS AND WILL LEAD TO THE HEAVIEST
AXIS OF PRECIP FALLING IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND JUST WEST
OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. TOTAL LIQUID PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE WITH VERMONT LIKELY BEING CLOSER TO THE 1
INCH SIDE AS A DRY SLOT WORKS IN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
LOW PULLS OUT OF THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO TUESDAY EVENING THE BACK
SIDE OF THE WILL WRAP AROUND AND THE FLOW SHOULD GO NORTHWEST
WHICH WOULD GENERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND TRANSITION BACK TO
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE FAVOURABLE UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF THE GREENS IN VERMONT. AS THIS HAPPENS HOWEVER MOST OF
THE MOISTURE WILL BE EXITING QUICKLY AND THUS I DONT EXPECT A
SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTION TO SNOW TOTALS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON
TUESDAY.
CONCERNING PRECIP TOTALS AND TYPE... FIRST JUST THE NUMBERS.
EXPECT STORM TOTAL SNOW TO BE BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES OVER VERMONT AND
ESSEX/CLINTON COUNTY IN NEW YORK. IN SOUTHERN FRANKLIN AND ACROSS
SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY IN NEW YORK STORM TOTAL SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
BE BETWEEN 4-8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGH POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. CONCERNING ICE, EXPECT GENERALLY A TRACE TO
A TENTH ACROSS THE N NORTH COUNTRY EXPECT FOR THE IMMEDIATE SAINT
LAWRENCE WHERE COLDER AIR WILL HOLD ON LONGER AND BECOME TRAPPED
IN NORTHEAST FLOW THUS ALLOWING FOR BETWEEN 0.25-0.50" OF ICE
ACCUMULATION.
THE ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT THREAT IS THE RAIN FREEZING ON GROUND
SURFACES THAT ARE BELOW FREEZING. WITH LATEST METRO GUIDANCE
POINTING TO ROAD SURFACES NOT LIKELY TO WARM UP ABOVE FREEZING
TILL AFTER 18Z THE THREAT FOR RAIN FREEZING ON UNTREATED SURFACES
IS SIGNIFICANT EVEN WELL AFTER THE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE
FREEZING. SO ICY TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AT
LEAST MID DAY ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 401 PM EST MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO
RACE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NEWFOUNDLAND WEDNESDAY WHILE THE PARENT
UPPER TROUGH STILL LAGS BEHIND TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL START THE MORNING UNDER A MID-LEVEL DRY
SLOT AND GENERALLY DRY, BUT AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES,
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND FROM LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE
WITH LAKE EFFECT, IT`S DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO PLACE WHERE THE
BAND WILL SET UP SO HAVE HIGHLIGHTED SOME HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THINKING BEST
CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY WITH A GENERAL 2-3", WHILE AREAS EAST SEE A
DUSTING TO PERHAPS 2". A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BASED ON TIMING OF
THE STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER
20S ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, TO UPPER 30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST
VERMONT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS FOLLOW SUIT WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO NORTHERN NEW YORK TO TEENS/LOW 20S SOUTHEAST VERMONT.
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY
AND IS REPLACED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
WHICH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, A CLIPPER-LIKE
SURFACE LOW AND POTENT 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFT FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE AREA WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN
STRENGTH OFF THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. THIS ALLOWS THE 500MB
TROUGH TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AND CUTOFF FOR A SHORT PERIOD
SATURDAY BEFORE THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE ZONAL SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY KEEPING THE WEATHER
RELATIVELY ACTIVE TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES, MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING IN LINE FAVORING THE
WARMER SOLUTIONS HINTED AT BY THE 00Z GFS AND CONTINUED WITH THE
12Z SUITE OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. THIS IS LARGELY IN PART TO
THE MORE NORTHERLY SURFACE LOW TRACK, WITH HIGHS DURING THE MOST
ACTIVE PERIOD OF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PUSHING INTO THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S. ALOFT TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW 0C SO WE`RE MAINLY
LOOKING AT MIXED PTYPE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SNOW LIKELY
FRIDAY NIGHT CHANGING TO VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. BOUNDARY COOLS ENOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO
SUPPORT SNOW AREA-WIDE BUT WARMS AGAIN ABOVE 0C SUNDAY/MONDAY FOR
MORE RAIN/SNOW MIX THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE MORE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z...THEN TREND TOWARD MVFR AS CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES LOWER IN SNOW THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z
IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AND THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL
CONSIST OF IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS AS STEADIER PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITATION BEGINS AS SNOW...THEN
TRANSITIONS TO SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND RAIN FOR MOST LOCATIONS
BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. KMSS WILL STAY IN THE COLD AIR AND SHOULD SEE
SNOW GOING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AT SPEEDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS...BUT EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO PERSIST AT KMSS.
IN ADDITION...AFTER 08Z THERE MAY BE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT
ALL SITES WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR AVIATION
WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON NIGHT AS STORM
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA. A CLIPPER SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY MAY BRING SOME MVFR CONDITIONS. VFR FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR VTZ001>012-
016>019.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ028-030-
031-034-035.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ026-027-029-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
945 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE INLAND INTO EASTERN
SECTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM MONDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE TRIAD EAST TO PERSON COUNTY
EXTENDED THROUGH 700 AM TUESDAY MORNING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DAVIDSON AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES
EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...
WE CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS PROPAGATING NORTH ACROSS THE STUBBORN CAD
AIRMASS...WITH SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ANALYZED ON THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THE SLOW EROSION OF THE CAD
AIRMASS AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS IS PROBLEMATIC...WITH THESE SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST WITH THE
CONVECTIVE LINE CROSSING THE SOUTHEAST STATES. EVEN THE THE COLDEST
GUIDANCE...THE HRRR/WRFNMM...WHICH MAY STILL WARM THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT TO QUICKLY...SHOWS TEMPS GETTING ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY AREA BY 10PM AND THE WINTER STORM AREA
BY 2AM. IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE ENTIRE ADVISORY AREA WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING BY 10PM...BUT GIVEN THAT THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS SHOULD BE OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...WE WILL
LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 10PM.
THE WARNING AND ADDITIONAL ADVISORY AREA FOR RANDOLPH AND DAVIDSON
COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE AND THE ADVISORY WILL BE REEVALUATED AT
MIDNIGHT. WE ARE A CONCERNED ABOUT ICE ACCRUAL IN FORSYTH COUNTY
(TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 20S) WHERE THE CAD AIRMASS MAY NOT
COMPLETELY ERODE UNTIL THE CONVECTIVE LINE SWEEPS THROUGH...AND
GIVEN HRRR HOURLY PRECIP AMOUNTS OF .04 TO .08 INCHES IN THE
SHOWERS... ANOTHER TENTH OR TWO OF ICE ISN`T COMPLETELY OUR OF THE
QUESTION IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY.
REGARDING SOME OF THE FOG IN THE PIEDMONT...THIS LOOKS TO BE
TRANSIENT WITH THE WEDGE FRONT AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD WEST IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN BE ERODED WITH THE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE NEEDED AT THE MOMENT.
AND FOR THE CONVECTIVE LINE...THE TIMING APPEARS TO BE
UNCHANGED...ARRIVING IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT CLOSE AROUND
4AM...THOUGH WARM ADVECTION IS LIKELY TO SUPPORT SOME PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE LINE AS WELL. SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BY THE SLOW INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE
COASTAL FRONT AND WARM SECTOR...AND SO THE COASTAL PLAIN STILL
APPEARS TO BE FAVORED FOR THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE WIND
GUSTS...WHERE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE SHOULD MATERIALIZE. MODELS
STILL SHOW THE PRIMARY LOW TRACK THROUGH THE PIEDMONT...BUT IT SEEMS
THIS STILL HAS SOME WESTWARD ERROR AND ANY TORNADO THREAT IS ALSO
MOST LIKELY NEAR THE COAST. STILL...HRRR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
EROSION OF THE NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER AND ADDED DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL
LEAD TO SOME 40-50KT WIND GUSTS...PRIMARILY EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM MONDAY...
PRECIP...IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ONGOING TO START THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE QUICKLY RACING FROM THE TRIAD TO
THE TRIANGLE BY 12Z AND AND THEN OFFSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY WEAK (BUT NON-ZERO) DURING THE TIME...WITH
ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. NEVERTHELESS...THE SPC HAS PLACED THIS AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
ROBUST SHORT WAVE TROUGH. IN ADDITION...AN INTENSE LOW LEVEL JET (60-
70 KNOTS)...WILL BE PRESENT...BUT RAPIDLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE THROUGH
18Z. THEREFORE...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE
STRONGER STORMS. REGARDLESS...WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY...EVEN
OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BY THIS
TIME AND THEREFORE AM NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
OVERNIGHT...JUST AN INCREASE IN SOME CLOUDS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY...MAINTAINING A CYCLONIC FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC. A SERIES OF
UPPER DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE
PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AS THE
MOISTURE...WHILE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE CLOUDS...NOT ENOUGH TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS GENERALLY 50-55 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING.
THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND LIFTS NEWD BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...PERMITTING A PERIOD OF S/W RIDGING TO OCCUR. THIS WILL
INITIATE A WARMING PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY. A S/W IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM
WILL CROSS NORTH OF OUR REGION...DRAGGING A MOISTURE STARVED FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT. AIR MASS BEHIND THE
FRONT OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SO NOT EXPECTING A BLAST OF COLD AIR.
MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE S/W EXITING THE CENTRAL-
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE 00Z ECMWF DEPICTING
MORE AMPLITUDE THAN THE 12Z GFS. FOR NOW...WILL INCREASE CLOUDINESS
MONDAY BUT KEEP POPS AOB 20%.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 555 PM MONDAY...
DANGEROUS AVIATION CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...
(V)LIFR CONDITIONS; PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION --ALL OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY AND SOME WINTRY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS-- AND
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS...WILL AFFECT CENTRAL NC
TAF SITES.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...INCLUDING MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING
RAIN ONES OVER TRIAD TAF SITES WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...WILL
TRANSITION TO LIQUID ONES AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. MEANWHILE TO THE EAST...THE TEMPERATURE WILL
BREACH FREEZING AND RESULT IN FOLLOWING ALL LIQUID SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST FROM RWI TO RDU IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WHILE THE TEMPERATURE HAS ALREADY RISEN ABOVE
FREEZING AT FAY.
AN EXPANSION OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE ONGOING
LIFR CEILINGS TONIGHT...AS A WARM FRONT RETREATS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE APPROACH OF A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PASSAGE OF AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT IN THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF A
BAND OF HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS WESTERLY FLOW AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS BY EARLY TUE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...ON THE
HEELS OF THE LEAD ONE TONIGHT...WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUE-EARLY TUE NIGHT. LOW VFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT
RAIN MAY RESULT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN TAF SITES.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ038-
039.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ008>010-025-026-040-041-073>075.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ007-021>024.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
708 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE INLAND INTO EASTERN
SECTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...
***WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE PIEDMONT
EXTENDED UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING...***
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE TRIAD EAST TO PERSON COUNTY
EXTENDED THROUGH 700 AM TUESDAY MORNING...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DAVIDSON AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES
EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...
RESIDUAL WEDGE OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN/NORTHWESTERN
PIEDMONT THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN FROM SE
TO NW THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS A COASTAL WARM FRONT RETREATS
INLAND IN ADVANCE OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
KGSO RAOB SPECIAL 18Z RELEASE REVEALS THAT THE EXPECTED
STRONG/SIGNIFICANT WARMING ALOFT HAS INDEED MATERIALIZE...WARMER AND
QUICKER THAN FORECAST....WITH 6 C WARM NOSE NOTED ~875MB. A WARM
NOSE OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL SUPPORT PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY IN THE
FORM OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AS THE COASTAL FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR
RETREATS SE TO NW INTO THE AREA. THE HRRR WHICH HAS DONE AN
EXCELLENT JOB WITH THE NEAR FREEZING SFC WET-BULB TRENDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA(DELINEATES THE CHANGE-OVER FROM FREEZING RAIN TO
RAIN)BRINGS THE NEAR FREEZING SFC WET-BULB THROUGH THE TRIANGLE
BETWEEN 21 TO 00Z...AND THROUGH THE TRIAD BETWEEN 03 TO 06Z.
INTERMITTENT LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL SUPPORT A TENTH TO
TWO-TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS IN THE HEART OF THE DAMMING REGION(WARNING AREA). THE
FREEZING RAIN THREAT ACROSS THE TRIAD AND PERSON COUNTY LOOKS TO BE
OVER SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE
FREEZING AS THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR OVERTAKES THE AREA. THE
WINTER STORM WARNING LIKELY TO BE CANCELLED EARLY(EXPIRES AT 7AM).
ATTENTION WILL QUICKLY TURN FROM FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NC BY AROUND DAYBREAK AS NEGATIVE TILTED MID/UPPER WAVE AND
ATTENDANT DEEPENING SFC LOW APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST. STRONG/DEEP ASCENT WITH IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
OF THE UPPER JET STREAK AND ALONG THE NOSE OF A POWERFUL 60-70KT LLJ
WILL SUPPORT A CONVECTIVE LINE OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE LINE ENCOUNTERS THE BETTER INSTABILITY IN
THE EAST(MUCAPE 200-500 J/KG...STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUST WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE.
WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR SPREADING NORTH INTO THE AREA...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE OVERNIGHT...WARMING IN THE 40S
ACROSS THE WEST TO LOWER/MID 50S SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM MONDAY...
PRECIP...IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ONGOING TO START THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE QUICKLY RACING FROM THE TRIAD TO
THE TRIANGLE BY 12Z AND AND THEN OFFSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY WEAK (BUT NON-ZERO) DURING THE TIME...WITH
ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. NEVERTHELESS...THE SPC HAS PLACED THIS AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
ROBUST SHORT WAVE TROUGH. IN ADDITION...AN INTENSE LOW LEVEL JET (60-
70 KNOTS)...WILL BE PRESENT...BUT RAPIDLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE THROUGH
18Z. THEREFORE...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE
STRONGER STORMS. REGARDLESS...WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY...EVEN
OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BY THIS
TIME AND THEREFORE AM NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
OVERNIGHT...JUST AN INCREASE IN SOME CLOUDS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY...MAINTAINING A CYCLONIC FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC. A SERIES OF
UPPER DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE
PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AS THE
MOISTURE...WHILE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE CLOUDS...NOT ENOUGH TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS GENERALLY 50-55 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING.
THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND LIFTS NEWD BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...PERMITTING A PERIOD OF S/W RIDGING TO OCCUR. THIS WILL
INITIATE A WARMING PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY. A S/W IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM
WILL CROSS NORTH OF OUR REGION...DRAGGING A MOISTURE STARVED FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT. AIR MASS BEHIND THE
FRONT OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SO NOT EXPECTING A BLAST OF COLD AIR.
MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE S/W EXITING THE CENTRAL-
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE 00Z ECMWF DEPICTING
MORE AMPLITUDE THAN THE 12Z GFS. FOR NOW...WILL INCREASE CLOUDINESS
MONDAY BUT KEEP POPS AOB 20%.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 555 PM MONDAY...
DANGEROUS AVIATION CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...
(V)LIFR CONDITIONS; PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION --ALL OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY AND SOME WINTRY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS-- AND
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS...WILL AFFECT CENTRAL NC
TAF SITES.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...INCLUDING MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING
RAIN ONES OVER TRIAD TAF SITES WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...WILL
TRANSITION TO LIQUID ONES AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. MEANWHILE TO THE EAST...THE TEMPERATURE WILL
BREACH FREEZING AND RESULT IN FOLLOWING ALL LIQUID SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST FROM RWI TO RDU IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WHILE THE TEMPERATURE HAS ALREADY RISEN ABOVE
FREEZING AT FAY.
AN EXPANSION OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE ONGOING
LIFR CEILINGS TONIGHT...AS A WARM FRONT RETREATS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE APPROACH OF A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PASSAGE OF AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT IN THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF A
BAND OF HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS WESTERLY FLOW AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS BY EARLY TUE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...ON THE
HEELS OF THE LEAD ONE TONIGHT...WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUE-EARLY TUE NIGHT. LOW VFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT
RAIN MAY RESULT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN TAF SITES.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ038-
039.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ008>010-025-026-040-041-073>075.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ007-021>024.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
820 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 817 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. SNOW FROM MINOT
SOUTHWEST TO NEAR HAZEN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO BISMARCK BY 9-930.
THEN SOUTHEAST TOWARD JAMESTOWN. VISIBILITIES IN THE SNOW SEEM TO
DROP TO ABOUT 1 MILE AND LAST FOR ABOUT AN HOUR. AREA MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 45 TO 50 MPH. EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT AS
WELL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
AT 630 PM CST...SEVERAL BANDS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WERE
DETECTED BY RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE REFINED THE POPS AND WEATHER TYPES ALONE THESE
OBSERVATIONS.
THE FIRST AREA EXTENDED FROM ROLLA AND RUGBY SOUTHEAST TO NEAR
BISMARCK. THIS AREA IS MAINLY SNOW BUT A RAIN MIX POSSIBLE EARLY
AS IT MOVES THROUGH TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING.
A SECOND AREA OF SNOW BRIEFLY PRODUCED 1/2 MILE VISIBILITY
FOR A SHORT TIME AT ESTEVAN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS NARROW BAND OF
PRECIP WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL FOLLOWING THE PREVIOUS ONE
BUT REMAINING FURTHER NORTH FROM MINOT THROUGH DEVILS LAKE LATER
THIS EVENING.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BE GENERALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH A BRIEF
COOL-DOWN EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
AS OF 21 UTC...LOW- AND MID-LEVEL SATURATION HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE
AT A SLOWER RATE THAN PERHAPS EXPECTED BASED ON A LACK OF SURFACE
PRECIPITATION REPORTS AND RELATIVELY ANEMIC REFLECTIVITY ON 0.5
DEGREE RADAR DATA. RECENT HIGH-RESOLUTION...RAPID-REFRESH MODEL
GUIDANCE /INCLUDING THE RAP AND HRRR/ STILL SUPPORTS THE FORMATION
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND BY 00 UTC WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THAT MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS ALSO BEEN TRENDING LOWER WITH QPF...AND SINCE THAT IS
IN LINE WITH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WE BELIEVE THAT TO BE ACCURATE.
OUR FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
THROUGH TONIGHT FROM NORTH CENTRAL ND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT RAIN INITIALLY OVER WESTERN AND PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL ND...BEFORE A SWITCH TO POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW BY THE
TIME THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS WINDING DOWN THIS EVENING.
WE ARE STILL CALLING FOR A PERIOD OF NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT
30 MPH THIS EVENING BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING
SURFACE COLD FRONT BASED ON RAP-FORECAST 3-HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE
CHANGES OF 3-5 MB /HIGHEST IN SOUTHWEST ND/. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN
AREA OF STRATUS /LOW CLOUDS/ WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...WITH SOME HINTS OF ADDITIONAL...WEAK IMPULSES IN
LINGERING CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WE HAVE LOW POPS IN PLAY
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL ND AFTER 06 UTC TO ACCOUNT FOR
THAT...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE STRATUS DECK MIGHT BE
WARMER THAN -12 C...SUGGESTING SOME RISK OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. WE
CHOSE TO WITHHOLD THAT FROM THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT WITH WEAK
VERTICAL MOTION IN THAT LAYER PER MODEL GUIDANCE. MOREOVER...THE
PRECIPITATION-TYPE ALGORITHM OUTPUT FROM THE 12 UTC GLOBAL MODEL
OUTPUT AND MORE RECENT HRRR AND RAP GUIDANCE SUPPORTS LIGHT SNOW
AS THE PRIMARY TYPE WITH ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THAT WILL REQUIRE
MONITORING THOUGH.
ON TUESDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO EASTERN ND AND WILL
BRING A COLDER DAY TO THE AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO
THE WEST ACROSS MT THOUGH AND THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE ALL SUGGESTS A
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN ND DURING THE DAY AND
INTO CENTRAL ND BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WOULD BE ANOTHER
LIGHT QPF EVENT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
ACTIVE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS SLIDING THROUGH WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...APPROXIMATELY ONE EVERY 24HR TO 48HR. WE
ARE LIKELY TO SEE A COMBINATION OR RAIN...SNOW...AND/OR LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE AT TIMES WITH THESE SYSTEMS. SUCCESSIVE WARM AIR
ADVECTION/PRECIPITATION EVENTS WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND LATER IN THE WEEK. THE NAEFS 850T-500T SHOWS A
FAIRLY STRONG THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTING OVER NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY.
850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +10C WILL BE COMMON RESULTING IN SURFACE
HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...FIRST SHORTWAVE IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD EMBEDDED WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE FROM
WITH A SURFACE LOW REFLECTED IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA SHIFTING INTO
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER...STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWN TO
CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BY THE LAST SEVERAL
RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. A MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WITH
THAT WAVE...AND STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON ITS BACK SIDE IF THE
12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF ARE RIGHT WITH 850-MB WINDS UP TO 55 KT FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
FINALLY...THERE ARE HINTS OF ONE MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE ON
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...SUPPORTIVE OF MORE LOW POPS IN THAT PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
AT 630 PM CST...LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
ONTARIO ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH NORTH DAKOTA WILL SAG
SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS WITH A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN THIS
EVENING WILL BE REPLACED WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS INTO MVFR
AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH BETWEEN 03Z- 09Z TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
ICE RESTRICTIONS IN THE CHANNEL AND SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM LOCAL
RUNOFF DUE TO RECENT SNOWMELT HAS CAUSED THE MISSOURI RIVER TO
RISE IN THE BISMARCK/MANDAN AREA. WE ARE MONITORING THE SITUATION
CLOSELY AND ARE PROVIDING INFORMATION IN A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK ON
OUR WEB PAGE. RIGHT NOW THE MAIN MESSAGE WE ARE CONVEYING IS THAT
THERE WILL BE SHARP FLUCTUATIONS...WITH RAPID RISES FOLLOWED BY
LOWER LEVELS...UNTIL THE ICE IS NATURALLY REMOVED BY MIDWEEK.
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...KS/CJS
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...CJS/KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
652 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
AT 630 PM CST...SEVERAL BANDS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WERE
DETECTED BY RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE REFINED THE POPS AND WEATHER TYPES ALONE THESE
OBSERVATIONS.
THE FIRST AREA EXTENDED FROM ROLLA AND RUGBY SOUTHEAST TO NEAR
BISMARCK. THIS AREA IS MAINLY SNOW BUT A RAIN MIX POSSIBLE EARLY
AS IT MOVES THROUGH TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING.
A SECOND AREA OF SNOW BRIEFLY PRODUCED 1/2 MILE VISIBILITY
FOR A SHORT TIME AT ESTEVAN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS NARROW BAND OF
PRECIP WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL FOLLOWING THE PREVIOUS ONE
BUT REMAINING FURTHER NORTH FROM MINOT THROUGH DEVILS LAKE LATER
THIS EVENING.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BE GENERALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH A BRIEF
COOL-DOWN EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
AS OF 21 UTC...LOW- AND MID-LEVEL SATURATION HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE
AT A SLOWER RATE THAN PERHAPS EXPECTED BASED ON A LACK OF SURFACE
PRECIPITATION REPORTS AND RELATIVELY ANEMIC REFLECTIVITY ON 0.5
DEGREE RADAR DATA. RECENT HIGH-RESOLUTION...RAPID-REFRESH MODEL
GUIDANCE /INCLUDING THE RAP AND HRRR/ STILL SUPPORTS THE FORMATION
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND BY 00 UTC WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THAT MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS ALSO BEEN TRENDING LOWER WITH QPF...AND SINCE THAT IS
IN LINE WITH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WE BELIEVE THAT TO BE ACCURATE.
OUR FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
THROUGH TONIGHT FROM NORTH CENTRAL ND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT RAIN INITIALLY OVER WESTERN AND PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL ND...BEFORE A SWITCH TO POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW BY THE
TIME THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS WINDING DOWN THIS EVENING.
WE ARE STILL CALLING FOR A PERIOD OF NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT
30 MPH THIS EVENING BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING
SURFACE COLD FRONT BASED ON RAP-FORECAST 3-HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE
CHANGES OF 3-5 MB /HIGHEST IN SOUTHWEST ND/. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN
AREA OF STRATUS /LOW CLOUDS/ WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...WITH SOME HINTS OF ADDITIONAL...WEAK IMPULSES IN
LINGERING CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WE HAVE LOW POPS IN PLAY
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL ND AFTER 06 UTC TO ACCOUNT FOR
THAT...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE STRATUS DECK MIGHT BE
WARMER THAN -12 C...SUGGESTING SOME RISK OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. WE
CHOSE TO WITHHOLD THAT FROM THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT WITH WEAK
VERTICAL MOTION IN THAT LAYER PER MODEL GUIDANCE. MOREOVER...THE
PRECIPITATION-TYPE ALGORITHM OUTPUT FROM THE 12 UTC GLOBAL MODEL
OUTPUT AND MORE RECENT HRRR AND RAP GUIDANCE SUPPORTS LIGHT SNOW
AS THE PRIMARY TYPE WITH ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THAT WILL REQUIRE
MONITORING THOUGH.
ON TUESDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO EASTERN ND AND WILL
BRING A COLDER DAY TO THE AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO
THE WEST ACROSS MT THOUGH AND THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE ALL SUGGESTS A
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN ND DURING THE DAY AND
INTO CENTRAL ND BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WOULD BE ANOTHER
LIGHT QPF EVENT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
ACTIVE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS SLIDING THROUGH WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...APPROXIMATELY ONE EVERY 24HR TO 48HR. WE
ARE LIKELY TO SEE A COMBINATION OR RAIN...SNOW...AND/OR LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE AT TIMES WITH THESE SYSTEMS. SUCCESSIVE WARM AIR
ADVECTION/PRECIPITATION EVENTS WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND LATER IN THE WEEK. THE NAEFS 850T-500T SHOWS A
FAIRLY STRONG THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTING OVER NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY.
850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +10C WILL BE COMMON RESULTING IN SURFACE
HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...FIRST SHORTWAVE IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD EMBEDDED WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE FROM
WITH A SURFACE LOW REFLECTED IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA SHIFTING INTO
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER...STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWN TO
CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BY THE LAST SEVERAL
RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. A MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WITH
THAT WAVE...AND STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON ITS BACK SIDE IF THE
12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF ARE RIGHT WITH 850-MB WINDS UP TO 55 KT FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
FINALLY...THERE ARE HINTS OF ONE MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE ON
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...SUPPORTIVE OF MORE LOW POPS IN THAT PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
AT 630 PM CST...LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
ONTARIO ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH NORTH DAKOTA WILL SAG
SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS WITH A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN THIS
EVENING WILL BE REPLACED WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS INTO MVFR
AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH BETWEEN 03Z- 09Z TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
ICE RESTRICTIONS IN THE CHANNEL AND SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM LOCAL
RUNOFF DUE TO RECENT SNOWMELT HAS CAUSED THE MISSOURI RIVER TO
RISE IN THE BISMARCK/MANDAN AREA. WE ARE MONITORING THE SITUATION
CLOSELY AND ARE PROVIDING INFORMATION IN A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK ON
OUR WEB PAGE. RIGHT NOW THE MAIN MESSAGE WE ARE CONVEYING IS THAT
THERE WILL BE SHARP FLUCTUATIONS...WITH RAPID RISES FOLLOWED BY
LOWER LEVELS...UNTIL THE ICE IS NATURALLY REMOVED BY MIDWEEK.
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...KS/CJS
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...CJS/KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
331 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL ND AND AN INCREASING CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRST OF ALL...WE HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE LACK OF
OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE OF IT OVER EAST CENTRAL ND THROUGH 21 UTC.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN PLACES LIKE JAMESTOWN SHOW THE STRATUS DECK
/LOW CLOUDS/ BEING WARMER THAN -12 C...WHICH SUPPORTS SUPERCOOLED
LIQUID DROPS AND NOT ICE CRYSTALS...BUT OMEGA IN THAT LAYER IS ON
ITS WAY DOWNWARD AND SO THE PROBABILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL
ONLY LOWER THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
TONIGHT...WE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST OVER CENTRAL ND OUT
OF RESPECT TO SNOWMELT TODAY...INITIALLY-LIGHT WINDS WITHIN 1000
FT OF THE GROUND...AND SIMULATION OF ITS DEVELOPMENT IN THE 15-19
UTC RUNS OF THE OPERATIONAL AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AND THE 12 UTC
NAM-NEST. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOW LEVELS MAY
BECOME A BIT TOO TURBULENT FOR FOG IN MOST AREAS AFTER 09 UTC PER
INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS JUST ABOVE THE GROUND...WHICH PRODUCES
MODIFIED RICHARDSON NUMBERS GREATER THAN 0.00. OTHERWISE...WE ARE
EXPECTING A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S F...AND IT
SHOULD BE DRY AFTER ANY LATE-AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN SOUTHWESTERN ND
DISSIPATE AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES INTO SD.
ON MONDAY...THE 12 UTC GFS...ECMWF...AND NAM ALL SHOW A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN ND BY AFTERNOON. THAT WAVE CAN BE SEEN
CRASHING ONTO THE CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE ON AFTERNOON
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY...AND GIVEN ITS APPARENT CIRCULATION AND
POST-TROUGH DARKENING ON THOSE SATELLITE IMAGES...MODEL GUIDANCE
APPEARS VERY REASONABLE IN SHOWING A MODERATE TO POSSIBLY STRONG
SURGE OF QG-FORCING CROSSING THE AREA BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WE ARE THUS ADVERTISING POPS OF 40+ PERCENT OVER MOST OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ND MONDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL LIKELY
BE DRIVEN MAINLY BY BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AS THE WARM LAYER
ALOFT WILL INITIALLY BE SUB-SATURATED IN SOUTHWEST ND /PROMOTING
WET BULB COOLING/...AND TOO COLD FOR MELTING ALOFT ELSEWHERE WITH
850-MB TEMPERATURES BELOW 1 C. WE THUS HAVE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA...WITH QPF FROM 18 TO 00 UTC OF
0.10 INCHES OR LESS PER THE 12 UTC MODEL SUITE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
ACTIVE FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
WEEK...THEN WE FINALLY TRANSITION TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW
PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
MODELS TRENDING STRONGER WITH A S/WV TROUGH/CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION
TYPE BY MONDAY EVENING SHOULD BE ALL SNOW WITH MODELS IN AGREEMENT
WITH CAA LOWERING TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE
SATURATION LAYER. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS WAVE
GIVEN THE UPTICK IN QPF AND LIFT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS
WILL REMAIN SUB-ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL SO DID NOT MENTION IN THE
HWO WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.
THIS CLIPPER IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE TUESDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERMAL PROFILE SUGGEST ALL SNOW WITH
THIS S/WV.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DRY THINGS OUT TOWARDS THURSDAY
ALONG WITH MILD/WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S
EAST...40S NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL...AND MID/UPPER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. A GOOD SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE MIXING AND
MAY LEAD TO EVEN WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THURSDAY THAN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. FOR NOW LEANED MORE CONSERVATIVE.
UPPER LEVEL S/WV TROUGH FOLLOWS THE RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.
MODEL SPREAD STILL HIGH RIGHT NOW IN REGARDS TO THIS WAVE. MAY SEE
SOME IMPACTFUL WEATHER THOUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK...RIGHT NOW VERY UNCERTAIN BUT WILL BE WORTH
KEEPING AN EYE ON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS FROM CENTRAL ND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
COULD BRIEFLY LIFT INTO THE VFR RANGE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT THEN A BRIEF WINDOW OF SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME LOW
STRATUS. ELSEWHERE...KISN AND KDIK SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...ZH/CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1235 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
WE INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND
WITH THIS UPDATE AS TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE WARM FRONT IN LOCALES
WITH 2 INCHES OR LESS OF SNOW ON THE GROUND HAVE WARMED RAPIDLY
IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. WE ARE NOW ADVERTISING LOWER 40S F EVEN IN
BISMARCK/MANDAN THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH ADMITTEDLY MAY NOT BE QUITE
WARM ENOUGH SINCE IT IS ALREADY 40 F HERE AT 1830 UTC. ONLY MINOR
CHANGES WERE MADE TO OTHER FORECAST FIELDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WE
WILL CONSIDER THE POSSIBLE ADDITION OF PATCHY FOG TO TONIGHT WITH
THE NEXT FORECAST RELEASE GIVEN SNOWMELT TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. CUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AS THE SNOW HAS VACATED THE FORECAST AREA...BUT DID LEAVE A
MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPERIMENTAL HRRR
RUNS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT...SHOWING FREEZING DRIZZLE ON THE BACK
EDGE OF THE SNOW. WHILE THE OPERATIONAL HRRR IS NOT SHOWING THE
SAME SCENARIO...EARLIER EXPERIMENTAL RUNS HANDLED THIS MORNINGS
FREEZING DRIZZLE WELL. LATEST RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER
JAMESTOWN ALSO SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER
THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC. CONTINUED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH FREEZING
DRIZZLE STILL FAVORED UNDER THE STRATUS DECK WITH ICE CRYSTALS
LACKING THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN AS OBSERVED ON THE 12 UTC KBIS
SOUNDING. HOWEVER...SATURATION AT THE TOP OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LAYER DOES APPROACH -10 TO -12 C...ALLOWING FOR A
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OCCASIONALLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT DEVELOPED
BEFORE MIDNIGHT - ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW THAT
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE. WILL BE ADDING A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BECAUSE OF THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND EXTENDING THE ADVISORY THAT ENCOMPASSES ALL
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL NOON CST.
CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM MANITOBA
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN DAKOTAS. A CIRCULATION WAS NOTED
IN THE SATELLITE PICS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...WITH ANOTHER CIRCULATION NOTED IN THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS
OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THE AREA OF SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH EASTWARD...WITH THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW NEAR BOTTINEAU AND EAST OF THE MINOT AREA
IN THE NORTH CENTRAL...AND IN THE JAMES RIVER BASIN. AT THE
SURFACE...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR STANLEY TO GLEN ULLIN AND
EAST OF HETTINGER...WHERE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS HAD DEVELOPED AND
LOW CLOUDS WERE DISSIPATING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DID SHOW THAT ONCE THE SNOW ENDS IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THAT A DEEP LAYER OF SUPERCOOLED AIR WITH NO ICE CRYSTALS
ABOVE IT WOULD DOMINATE CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
DEVELOPED AT BISMARCK AND LIGHT RADAR RETURNS SURROUNDING THE
BISMARCK RADAR CONFIRM THAT LIGHT FOG PARTICLES/DRIZZLE WERE INTENSE
ENOUGH TO BE DETECTED BY RADAR. MENTION OF FOG WEST OF THE SNOW
BANDS ARE LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY FREEZING DRIZZLE. THINKING AREA OF
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS BETWEEN THE AREA OF SNOW IN THE EAST AND
THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST. WILL ADDRESS THIS WITH THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AND
HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 40 FAR SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 30 TURTLE
MOUNTAINS/JAMES VALLEY. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON. A MILD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS COMING WEEK...WITH
RESULTANT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD. THE 00 UTC
NAEFS MEAN 850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO
THEIR 97.5 TO 99.5+ PERCENTILES BY THURSDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
50S FOR HIGHS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER BY
THURSDAY...POSSIBLY APPROACHING RECORD VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
AREAS OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW FLURRIES ARE MAKING THEIR
WAY OUT OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE
STATE. LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS WILL KEEP KMOT/KBIS/KJMS IN MVFR
CEILINGS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE
SCATTERED IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER KJMS THROUGH 19Z.
CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR FOR A BRIEF WINDOW OVER THESE SITES IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND THEN A BRIEF
WINDOW OF SOME FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME LOW STRATUS.
ELSEWHERE...KISN AND KDIK SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...ZH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
948 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. CUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AS THE SNOW HAS VACATED THE FORECAST AREA...BUT DID LEAVE A
MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPERIMENTAL HRRR
RUNS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT...SHOWING FREEZING DRIZZLE ON THE BACK
EDGE OF THE SNOW. WHILE THE OPERATIONAL HRRR IS NOT SHOWING THE
SAME SCENARIO...EARLIER EXPERIMENTAL RUNS HANDLED THIS MORNINGS
FREEZING DRIZZLE WELL. LATEST RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER
JAMESTOWN ALSO SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER
THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC. CONTINUED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH FREEZING
DRIZZLE STILL FAVORED UNDER THE STRATUS DECK WITH ICE CRYSTALS
LACKING THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN AS OBSERVED ON THE 12 UTC KBIS
SOUNDING. HOWEVER...SATURATION AT THE TOP OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LAYER DOES APPROACH -10 TO -12 C...ALLOWING FOR A
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OCCASIONALLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT DEVELOPED
BEFORE MIDNIGHT - ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW THAT
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE. WILL BE ADDING A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BECAUSE OF THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND EXTENDING THE ADVISORY THAT ENCOMPASSES ALL
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL NOON CST.
CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM MANITOBA
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN DAKOTAS. A CIRCULATION WAS NOTED
IN THE SATELLITE PICS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...WITH ANOTHER CIRCULATION NOTED IN THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS
OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THE AREA OF SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH EASTWARD...WITH THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW NEAR BOTTINEAU AND EAST OF THE MINOT AREA
IN THE NORTH CENTRAL...AND IN THE JAMES RIVER BASIN. AT THE
SURFACE...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR STANLEY TO GLEN ULLIN AND
EAST OF HETTINGER...WHERE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS HAD DEVELOPED AND
LOW CLOUDS WERE DISSIPATING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DID SHOW THAT ONCE THE SNOW ENDS IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THAT A DEEP LAYER OF SUPERCOOLED AIR WITH NO ICE CRYSTALS
ABOVE IT WOULD DOMINATE CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
DEVELOPED AT BISMARCK AND LIGHT RADAR RETURNS SURROUNDING THE
BISMARCK RADAR CONFIRM THAT LIGHT FOG PARTICLES/DRIZZLE WERE INTENSE
ENOUGH TO BE DETECTED BY RADAR. MENTION OF FOG WEST OF THE SNOW
BANDS ARE LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY FREEZING DRIZZLE. THINKING AREA OF
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS BETWEEN THE AREA OF SNOW IN THE EAST AND
THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST. WILL ADDRESS THIS WITH THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AND
HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 40 FAR SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 30 TURTLE
MOUNTAINS/JAMES VALLEY. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON. A MILD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS COMING WEEK...WITH
RESULTANT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD. THE 00 UTC
NAEFS MEAN 850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO
THEIR 97.5 TO 99.5+ PERCENTILES BY THURSDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
50S FOR HIGHS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER BY
THURSDAY...POSSIBLY APPROACHING RECORD VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
AT 1230Z A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH/WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE
BORDER OF SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA TO NEAR KMOT TO NEAR KBIS AND ALONG
THE MISSOURI RIVER SOUTH INTO SD. WEST OF THE FRONT AT KISN/KDIK
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL...AND MVFR CIGS TO BECOME VFR
BY AROUND 13Z-15Z THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
FRONT AT KBIS/KMOT/KJMS LOOK FOR IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT
SNOW...FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING AT KMOT/KBIS
BY 18Z. KJMS TO REMAIN MVFR/IFR UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
946 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
TONIGHT...MOVING NORTHEAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA BY TUESDAY. RAIN AND
SNOW ARE EXPECTED FOR THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING. A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. AFTER THAT...GRADUAL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP BY THE END OF
THE WEEK...WITH WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY A COUPLE OF COUNTIES TO THE
NW...WAYNE COUNTY INDIANA AND MIAMI COUNTY OHIO...BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.
FARTHER S AND E INTO THE PCPN SHIELD...THE RAIN HAS BEGUN TO
CHANGE TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL OHIO. LATEST HRRR AND
EARLIER RAP RUNS WERE KEEPING THE BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD A
LITTLE FARTHER E. THEREFORE TIGHTENED THE GRADIENT SOME MORE
ACROSS THE FA. DRIED OUT PARTS OF THE MIAMI AND WHITEWATER VALLEY
AND DIDNT CARRY ANY ACCUMULATING POPS IN SE INDIANA...BUT CANT
RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES. DIDNT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE SNOW
TOTALS IN THE EAST.
STILL EXPECT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S BY
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODEL TREND TOWARD A SOUTHERLY TRACK FOR THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
ON TUESDAY HAS CONTINUED. THOUGH GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS STILL SUGGEST
PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHERN ILN COUNTIES...CMC/ECMWF PROJECTIONS
ARE ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY. WILL KEEP SOME LOW-END POPS (WITH A
CHANCE OF EITHER RAIN OR SNOW BASED ON TEMPERATURE)...WHILE
ACKNOWLEDGING THAT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS MAY VERY WELL BE ZERO OR
JUST A TRACE.
THERE ARE STILL SIGNS OF A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BUT AS CAN BE THE CASE WITH
WEAK AND MOISTURE-LACKING SYSTEMS LIKE THIS...MODEL AGREEMENT ON
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE QPF RESPONSE IS NOT GREAT. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO EVEN FOLLOW THE PLACEMENT OF THE WAVE...AND THE 500MB
WIND MAX THAT ACCOMPANIES IT. TRYING TO FOLLOW THIS FEATURE AS
BEST AS POSSIBLE...IT APPEARS A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IS STILL WARRANTED. ACCUMULATIONS...IF
ANY...SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT. FLURRIES MIGHT END UP POSSIBLE JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 30S. MIN TEMPS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE MONDAY NIGHT /
TUESDAY MORNING WEATHER SYSTEM. BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL BY A FEW MORE DEGREES FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA SOUTHWEST INTO THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION...SO THERE WILL BE A
GRADIENT IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF
THE GOING FORECAST AND THE 12Z ECMWF AS THIS BLEND SEEMS TO BE THE
BEST SOLUTION. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ...HAVE SIDED WITH THE 12Z
ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE WITH THE NEXT FRONT TO APPROACH AND THEN MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. MID LEVEL TROUGH IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN AND
ACTUALLY SHEARS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS POSITION IS
NOT GOOD FOR DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT FORM THE GULF DESPITE AN
INCREASING WARM...SOUTHERLY FLOW...SO HAVE LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING..THEN SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES AND THEN LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA BY FRIDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM SECTOR ON FRIDAY WILL WARM INTO
THE 50S REGION WIDE...WITH A 60 DEGREE VALUE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. CAA IS WEAK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...SO HIGHS WILL BE
MILD...IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN.
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH...TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION. IT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MILD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY SOME
COOLING ON MONDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THIS
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR CIGS REMAIN ACROSS THE TAFS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
MEANWHILE MVFR AND IFR FOG IS ALSO AFFECTING THE TAFS. EXPECT THE
LIFR FOG TO AFFECT THE WRN TAFS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z UNTIL THE PCPN
COMES CLOSE TO THE REGION.
A SFC LOW WILL LIFT UP THROUGH ERN TN INTO WEST VA
TONIGHT...PUSHING AN AREA OF PCPN NWD. MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON
THE WWD EXTENT OF THE PCPN SHIELD. IT APPEARS THAT KDAY WILL MISS
OUT ON THE PCPN...WITH KCVG AND KLUK JUST GETTING GRAZED BY IT.
FARTHER E...THE PCPN WILL START AS RAIN...BUT AS COLDER AIR WORKS
IN AFTER 06Z AS THE SFC LOW WORKS E...THE RAIN WILL CHANCE TO
SNOW. KCMH/KLCK COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
BETWEEN 06-12Z.
THE PCPN WILL PUSH E QUICKLY ON TUESDAY...BUT THE LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND. CIGS WILL BE BELOW 1KFT FOR THE
MORNING...WITH SOME LOCATIONS BREAKING ABOVE 1KFT IN THE AFTN.
ALSO WITH A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT MVFR TO LINGER AT
THE TAFS SITES FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR OHZ045-046-
051>056-060>063-070>072-077-078.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR OHZ046-055-
056-063>065-073-074-079>082-088.
KY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ089>093.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ097>100.
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR INZ050-059-066-
073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1213 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL OCCUR NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY AND LIFT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE NEAR TERM OF THE FORECAST WERE FOCUSED ON THE
SNOW POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO
FORECAST NUMBERS REQUIRED. SOME MINOR CHANGES WERE ALSO MADE
OVERNIGHT AND GOING INTO MONDAY...BUT THE FORECAST THINKING FOR
THE SETUP FROM OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED SPIN IN
IOWA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS MOVING TOWARD THE
REGION TODAY. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST...FORCING IS BEGINNING
TO INCREASE IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...DRIVEN JUST AS MUCH BY
FORCING A LITTLE LOWER IN THE ATMOSPHERE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY...A SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS
OCCURRED...AND WARM FRONTAL PROCESSES ARE UNDERWAY. CONVERGENCE
AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN STRENGTH AHEAD OF
THE INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND PRECIPITATION IN ILLINOIS /
WESTERN KENTUCKY / EASTERN MISSOURI HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD.
ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON THIS OVERALL
SETUP...THERE ARE STILL SOME CONFLICTING FACTORS PREVENTING A
HIGH-CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE EVENTUAL SNOWFALL NUMBERS. RECENT
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS AND SOME OF THE 06Z OPERATIONAL RUNS
HAVE DEFINITELY INDICATED A LITTLE STRONGER FORCING THAN PERHAPS
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. CONSEQUENTLY...QPF AMOUNTS (ESPECIALLY OVER
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA) HAVE INCREASED AS WELL. OF COURSE...QPF
SHOULD ONLY BE USED AS ONE FACTOR IN THE FORECAST PROCESS...AND
NEEDS TO BE SCRUTINIZED. THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE FORCING
AND MOISTURE ARE OF GREATER CONCERN TO LOOK INTO. FOR
EXAMPLE...BOTH THE RECENT HRRR AND RAP RUNS HAVE AROUND A TENTH OF
AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ILN COUNTIES
BEFORE 18Z...VALUES THAT ARE SIMPLY NOT OCCURRING RIGHT NOW (WITH
JUST ONE OR TWO REPORTS OF SOME LIGHT SNOW FROM THE MOSTLY-VIRGA
ECHOES CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY).
FURTHERMORE...SNOW RATIOS MUST BE CONSIDERED THROUGH THE DEPTH OF
THE THERMAL PROFILE...AND CANNOT BE BASED SOLELY ON SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...IT IS THE STRENGTH OF THE WARMING ALOFT
(LEADING TO THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT) THAT WILL HELP LIMIT SNOW
RATIOS...BY DEVELOPING A DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER OF ROUGHLY -8C TO
-10C FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 700MB. THIS IS NOT ESPECIALLY
FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT SNOW PRODUCTION...AND WILL LIKELY KEEP
RATIOS AT OR BELOW 15:1. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD WHERE
THE CONTRIBUTION OF FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE ALLOWS FOR ASCENT
THROUGH AN EVEN DEEPER LAYER...PERHAPS ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF AN
HOUR OR TWO WITH SOME HEAVIER SNOW RATES.
WITH ALL THE FACTORS CONSIDERED TOGETHER...SNOW NUMBERS WERE
INCREASED BY ABOUT A HALF INCH THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE ILN
FORECAST AREA...AND BY ALMOST AN INCH IN THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST. THE WSW PRODUCT WAS BROKEN OUT INTO TWO GROUPS TO
ALLOW FOR A 2-3 INCH FORECAST AND A 3-4 INCH FORECAST.
THE FORECAST THINKING DID NOT CHANGE MUCH WITH REGARDS TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THE
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE HAS DEPARTED...AND SATURATION IS LIMITED TO
BELOW -10C...ICE CRYSTALS ARE UNLIKELY TO BE INTRODUCED INTO THE
ATMOSPHERE. THOUGH STRONG FORCING WILL ALSO BE DEPARTED...WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOW-LEVELS...ALLOWING FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RISING GOING INTO MONDAY MORNING...THE COLD GROUND CONDITIONS
WILL BE VERY SLUGGISH IN THEIR RESPONSE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT DEPOSITION OF ICE IF DRIZZLE IS ABLE TO DEVELOP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE TRACKING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL HEAD INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS COMING
INTO PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY AND THEN WEST
VIRGINIA. SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE LOW WILL SPREAD
INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN EXCEPT PERHAPS ON THE
NORTHWEST EDGE.
A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
MORNING PROVIDING A BRIEF RESPITE FROM PRECIPITATION. BUT THEN A
WELL DEVELOPED CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. 00Z NAM AND GFS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT BUT WITH THE
ECMWF BEING A BIT SLOWER THERE IS SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTY.
CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT THIS WILL BRING SNOW IN THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH RAIN OR SNOW IN THE SOUTH DEPENDING ON
THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON WEDNESDAY...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST...ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE
CAA STRATOCUMULUS IS EXPECTED.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY.
MODELS DIFFERENT ON THE EXTENT OF COLD AIR FILTERING IN THE
REGION...SO HAVE SIDED WITH A WPC BLENDED APPROACH.
AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN WAA INDUCED
CLOUDS. AS OF NOW...ANY PCPN GENERATED WITH THE WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STAY NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE EARLY
FOLLOWED BY SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH.
FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE GREAT
LAKES AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODELS VARY ON
HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SYSTEM...ALONG WITH THE TIMING...SO HAVE GONE WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN. FRIDAY CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED
WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S AREA WIDE.
ON SATURDAY...FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST...BUT CAA STRATOCUMULUS MOVES
INTO THE REGION. PCPN WILL MOVE EAST AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD...BEFORE
ACCUMULATING SNOW MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CEILINGS WILL ALSO LIKELY DROP TO THE
MVFR RANGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
ONCE THE MAIN ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS COME TO AN END...PRECIPITATION
WILL BECOME MUCH LIGHTER. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE
A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR EITHER VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
TO DEVELOP. SINCE AT LEAST SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED...AND
WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR AVIATION...IT WAS INCLUDED AS THE
MAIN WEATHER TYPE IN THE TAFS. FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE
UNTIL TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING AT SOME POINT MONDAY
MORNING. REGARDLESS OF HOW MUCH FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPS...THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR (AND PROBABLY LIFR) CEILINGS DURING THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST.
FOR THE REST OF MONDAY...IT APPEARS THAT RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...THOUGH HOW MUCH REACHES THE TAF SITES IS
STILL UNCERTAIN. CEILINGS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO LIFT...AND IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGING
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ063>065-
070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ066-
073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...HATZOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1033 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL OCCUR NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY AND LIFT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE NEAR TERM OF THE FORECAST WERE FOCUSED ON THE
SNOW POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO
FORECAST NUMBERS REQUIRED. SOME MINOR CHANGES WERE ALSO MADE
OVERNIGHT AND GOING INTO MONDAY...BUT THE FORECAST THINKING FOR
THE SETUP FROM OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED SPIN IN
IOWA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS MOVING TOWARD THE
REGION TODAY. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST...FORCING IS BEGINNING
TO INCREASE IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...DRIVEN JUST AS MUCH BY
FORCING A LITTLE LOWER IN THE ATMOSPHERE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY...A SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS
OCCURRED...AND WARM FRONTAL PROCESSES ARE UNDERWAY. CONVERGENCE
AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN STRENGTH AHEAD OF
THE INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND PRECIPITATION IN ILLINOIS /
WESTERN KENTUCKY / EASTERN MISSOURI HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD.
ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON THIS OVERALL
SETUP...THERE ARE STILL SOME CONFLICTING FACTORS PREVENTING A
HIGH-CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE EVENTUAL SNOWFALL NUMBERS. RECENT
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS AND SOME OF THE 06Z OPERATIONAL RUNS
HAVE DEFINITELY INDICATED A LITTLE STRONGER FORCING THAN PERHAPS
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. CONSEQUENTLY...QPF AMOUNTS (ESPECIALLY OVER
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA) HAVE INCREASED AS WELL. OF COURSE...QPF
SHOULD ONLY BE USED AS ONE FACTOR IN THE FORECAST PROCESS...AND
NEEDS TO BE SCRUTINIZED. THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE FORCING
AND MOISTURE ARE OF GREATER CONCERN TO LOOK INTO. FOR
EXAMPLE...BOTH THE RECENT HRRR AND RAP RUNS HAVE AROUND A TENTH OF
AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ILN COUNTIES
BEFORE 18Z...VALUES THAT ARE SIMPLY NOT OCCURRING RIGHT NOW (WITH
JUST ONE OR TWO REPORTS OF SOME LIGHT SNOW FROM THE MOSTLY-VIRGA
ECHOES CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY).
FURTHERMORE...SNOW RATIOS MUST BE CONSIDERED THROUGH THE DEPTH OF
THE THERMAL PROFILE...AND CANNOT BE BASED SOLELY ON SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...IT IS THE STRENGTH OF THE WARMING ALOFT
(LEADING TO THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT) THAT WILL HELP LIMIT SNOW
RATIOS...BY DEVELOPING A DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER OF ROUGHLY -8C TO
-10C FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 700MB. THIS IS NOT ESPECIALLY
FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT SNOW PRODUCTION...AND WILL LIKELY KEEP
RATIOS AT OR BELOW 15:1. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD WHERE
THE CONTRIBUTION OF FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE ALLOWS FOR ASCENT
THROUGH AN EVEN DEEPER LAYER...PERHAPS ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF AN
HOUR OR TWO WITH SOME HEAVIER SNOW RATES.
WITH ALL THE FACTORS CONSIDERED TOGETHER...SNOW NUMBERS WERE
INCREASED BY ABOUT A HALF INCH THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE ILN
FORECAST AREA...AND BY ALMOST AN INCH IN THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST. THE WSW PRODUCT WAS BROKEN OUT INTO TWO GROUPS TO
ALLOW FOR A 2-3 INCH FORECAST AND A 3-4 INCH FORECAST.
THE FORECAST THINKING DID NOT CHANGE MUCH WITH REGARDS TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THE
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE HAS DEPARTED...AND SATURATION IS LIMITED TO
BELOW -10C...ICE CRYSTALS ARE UNLIKELY TO BE INTRODUCED INTO THE
ATMOSPHERE. THOUGH STRONG FORCING WILL ALSO BE DEPARTED...WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOW-LEVELS...ALLOWING FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RISING GOING INTO MONDAY MORNING...THE COLD GROUND CONDITIONS
WILL BE VERY SLUGGISH IN THEIR RESPONSE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT DEPOSITION OF ICE IF DRIZZLE IS ABLE TO DEVELOP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE TRACKING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL HEAD INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS COMING
INTO PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY AND THEN WEST
VIRGINIA. SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE LOW WILL SPREAD
INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN EXCEPT PERHAPS ON THE
NORTHWEST EDGE.
A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
MORNING PROVIDING A BRIEF RESPITE FROM PRECIPITATION. BUT THEN A
WELL DEVELOPED CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. 00Z NAM AND GFS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT BUT WITH THE
ECMWF BEING A BIT SLOWER THERE IS SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTY.
CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT THIS WILL BRING SNOW IN THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH RAIN OR SNOW IN THE SOUTH DEPENDING ON
THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON WEDNESDAY...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST...ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE
CAA STRATOCUMULUS IS EXPECTED.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY.
MODELS DIFFERENT ON THE EXTENT OF COLD AIR FILTERING IN THE
REGION...SO HAVE SIDED WITH A WPC BLENDED APPROACH.
AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN WAA INDUCED
CLOUDS. AS OF NOW...ANY PCPN GENERATED WITH THE WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STAY NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE EARLY
FOLLOWED BY SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH.
FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE GREAT
LAKES AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODELS VARY ON
HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SYSTEM...ALONG WITH THE TIMING...SO HAVE GONE WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN. FRIDAY CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED
WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S AREA WIDE.
ON SATURDAY...FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST...BUT CAA STRATOCUMULUS MOVES
INTO THE REGION. PCPN WILL MOVE EAST AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD. ALTHOUGH A
FEW FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KCVG THIS MORNING MOST OF THE SNOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. CIGS
WILL LOWER AND VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED WITH THE SNOWFALL.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE OUT TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME QUESTION
AS TO WHETHER ICE WILL BE IN THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WHETHER OR NOT THERE IS OR NOT WILL
DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT OR WHETHER FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE PRESENT. THERE ARE
ENOUGH INDICATIONS TO SUGGEST THAT SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND THEREFORE HAVE FREEZING DRIZZLE IN TOWARDS
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS WILL BE LOWER IN THE IFR CATEGORY
DURING THIS TIME AND POTENTIALLY EVEN LIFR.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITATION
FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ063>065-
070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ066-
073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...NOVAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
943 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Fast moving disturbance in northwest flow spreading mid clouds
into parts of eastern OK. Some very light radar echoes upstream
across central/northern KS though only a couple of stationsreporting
rain out of 8-10 kft ceilings. Suppose a sprinkle or two cannot be
totally ruled out with some support from HRRR and RUC forecasts,
however nothing measurable. South winds beginning to increase in
response to approaching wave across northeast OK as well and while
some locations have already fallen below forecast lows, increasing
clouds and wind will prevent much more cooling tonight. Earlier
update was issued to lower mins several degrees across SE OK.
Front sweeps through early Tue with gusty NW winds and little
cooling impact. Fire weather conditions will need to be closely
monitored in areas south of I40 where afternoon temps should
exceed 65 degrees.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Northwest
winds will increase and become gusty during the day Tuesday, with
gusts near or over 25 knots at times.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Unseasonably warm day well under way across eastern Oklahoma
and western Arkansas even as a surface trof moves out of eastern
Oklahoma and into western Arkansas. Temperatures on Tuesday will
be fairly similar to those that are occurring today even as a weak
cold front slides through the region with the aid of a mid-level
shortwave moving out of the rockies and across the plains.
The stage will then be set for spring-like weather mid to late
week with high temperatures 15 to 25 degrees above normal
for this time of year. High pressure will prevail at the surface
and aloft Wednesday into Thursday before a cold front stalls out
across the area on Friday. The next chance of showers and thunderstorms
will be Saturday night into Sunday as another cold front moves into
the area. While temperatures are expected to be noticeably cooler
next Monday, they will still be slightly above normal for this time
of year.
With the unseasonably warm temperatures will come the increased
fire danger. This is especially true on Thursday with near record
warmth expected. Gusty southwest winds will accompany the
warm temperatures and with dormant vegetation across the area, the
stage is set for very high fire danger.
TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
$$
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 44 64 35 71 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 40 66 37 70 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 38 65 33 71 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 36 61 31 69 / 0 10 0 0
FYV 34 60 31 65 / 0 10 0 0
BYV 38 59 32 65 / 10 10 0 10
MKO 41 62 34 69 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 39 59 31 65 / 10 10 0 0
F10 42 63 36 71 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 42 70 37 70 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
926 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
.UPDATE...
TWEAKED CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. ADDED SPRINKLE
MENTION IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. INCREASED WINDS ON THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE A WINDY
DAY WITH VERY HIGH FIRE POTENTIAL AND NEAR RECORD WARMTH.
REST OF TONIGHT...THERE MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES BASED ON LATEST
RADARS DEPICTING VERY LIGHT ECHOES IN SOUTHERN KANSAS. MENTIONED
SPRINKLES IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A CHEROKEE TO
ENID TO STILLWATER LINE. OTHERWISE...RATHER QUIET WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT
AHEAD AND BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND 9 AM TUESDAY. CLOUDS WERE TWEAKED
BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND HRRR CEILING MODEL OUTPUT.
FORECAST LOWS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE...EXCEPT WERE LOWERED A FEW
DEGREES SOUTHEAST OF I-44.
AS FOR THURSDAY...INCREASED WINDS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...CLOSER
TO CONSMOS BLEND. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY.
WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WILL BE VERY HIGH DUE TO THE DRY
CONDITIONS...ABUNDANT FUELS...AND NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES.
SURFACE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN UNCERTAIN AND MAY NOT BE TOO LOW
BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...MODELS GENERALLY BEEN
TOO HIGH WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND TOO SHALLOW WITH VERTICAL
MIXING OVER THE PAST WEEK OR TWO DUE TO THE RECENT DRY SPELL. WILL
CLOSELY MONITOR THE WILDFIRE AND WIND POTENTIAL ON THIS DAY.
MBS/JTK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016/
AVIATION...16/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE PASSAGE
OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD
WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT FROM THE W/NW TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE FIRST THREE TO SIX HOURS... BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND INCREASING. GUSTY WINDS WILL
EXIST THROUGH THE MORNING AND MIDDAY AT MOST SITES... WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KTS LIKELY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION... SLOWLY CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY.
JTK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016/
DISCUSSION...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY EARLY TUESDAY...AND WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REST OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS BY MID AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
ESSENTIALLY DELAY A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND THAT WILL BEGIN
WEDNESDAY.
BY LATE WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE
THURSDAY. RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...AS A
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. GULF MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BUT MUCH DRIER
AIR OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL MIX INTO FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 80S.
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN RESULT WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHERLY
WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS. A STRONGER FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 40 65 36 71 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 40 68 38 74 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 41 72 39 77 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 37 64 34 73 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 38 62 33 69 / 10 0 0 0
DURANT OK 40 70 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17/04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
550 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR conditions this morning are expected to persist into the
afternoon hours for much of Northeast Oklahoma...while persisting
through the day for Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. A
surface boundary moving through the region along with an upper
level wave approaching will allow for light areas of rain/drizzle
for Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas today. Some light
freezing rain/drizzle could be possible this morning for
FYV/ROG/XNA sites. Periods of IFR conditions could also be
possible within any precipitation. Overnight...VFR conditions are
forecast for Northeast Oklahoma...while MVFR should remain for the
rest of the CWA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016/
DISCUSSION...
The dry low-levels are winning out so far this morning...with the
atmosphere being very slow to moisten. HRRR and RUC both suggest
that light precipitation won`t develop into the forecast until
beyond 12z...and it`s still looking like the deeper valley regions
of Carroll...Madison and Franklin counties will experience the
main impact from any light icing. Have opted to extend the winter
weather advisory until 18z...with temperatures warming above
freezing by early afternoon. Afternoon temperatures across the
remainder of the forecast area will be highly dependent on amount
of clearing...and have nudged highs down a few degrees over the
previous forecast.
The main story for next week will be an impressive warming
trend...especially toward the end of the week. A weak boundary
should work into the region by Tuesday beneath the northwesterly
upper flow...but still expect afternoon highs to reach the 60s in
most locations. The big warmup comes by Thursday and continuing
into Friday as strong south to southwest winds develop. Will
continue to go at or above the warmest guidance numbers...with
current forecast highs for Thursday near record levels.
Temperatures should moderate some going into next weekend...but
still remain well above seasonal norms. Have kept the forecast dry
at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 53 37 65 44 / 30 0 10 10
FSM 48 37 63 39 / 50 20 10 10
MLC 54 38 65 42 / 30 20 10 0
BVO 55 33 64 34 / 20 0 10 10
FYV 43 31 60 35 / 50 10 10 10
BYV 41 32 59 36 / 50 10 10 10
MKO 49 36 63 38 / 40 10 10 10
MIO 49 33 61 38 / 30 0 10 10
F10 54 37 65 40 / 30 10 10 10
HHW 60 45 67 42 / 20 50 20 0
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for ARZ001-002-010-
011-019-020.
&&
$$
AVIATION...20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
255 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
.DISCUSSION...
The dry low-levels are winning out so far this morning...with the
atmosphere being very slow to moisten. HRRR and RUC both suggest
that light precipitation won`t develop into the forecast until
beyond 12z...and it`s still looking like the deeper valley regions
of Carroll...Madison and Franklin counties will experience the
main impact from any light icing. Have opted to extend the winter
weather advisory until 18z...with temperatures warming above
freezing by early afternoon. Afternoon temperatures across the
remainder of the forecast area will be highly dependent on amount
of clearing...and have nudged highs down a few degrees over the
previous forecast.
The main story for next week will be an impressive warming
trend...especially toward the end of the week. A weak boundary
should work into the region by Tuesday beneath the northwesterly
upper flow...but still expect afternoon highs to reach the 60s in
most locations. The big warmup comes by Thursday and continuing
into Friday as strong south to southwest winds develop. Will
continue to go at or above the warmest guidance numbers...with
current forecast highs for Thursday near record levels.
Temperatures should moderate some going into next weekend...but
still remain well above seasonal norms. Have kept the forecast dry
at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 53 37 65 44 / 30 0 10 10
FSM 48 37 63 39 / 50 20 10 10
MLC 54 38 65 42 / 30 20 10 0
BVO 55 33 64 34 / 20 0 10 10
FYV 43 31 60 35 / 50 10 10 10
BYV 41 32 59 36 / 50 10 10 10
MKO 49 36 63 38 / 40 10 10 10
MIO 49 33 61 38 / 30 0 10 10
F10 54 37 65 40 / 30 10 10 10
HHW 60 45 67 42 / 20 50 20 0
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for ARZ001-002-010-
011-019-020.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....18
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
256 PM PST SUN FEB 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...MOIST ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO
THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT
RAIN IN THE LOWLANDS. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH
WASHINGTON TONIGHT...AND RAIN WILL DECREASE FROM THE SOUTH AS HIGHER
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN OREGON. WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
WASHINGTON WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF RAIN AT TIMES PORTLAND NORTHWARD
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER TO THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... FOLLOWED
BY LOWERING SNOW LEVELS IN THE CASCADES THURSDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC
FRONT APPEARS LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RAINFALL CONTINUES TO ADD
UP ALONG THE WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTH OREGON CASCADES THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE AS MUCH AS 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN REPORTED
THUS FAR IN PLENTY OF UPSLOPE FLOW. ELSEWHERE...NWS DOPPLER RADAR
SEEMS TO BE INDICATING A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...THOUGH
COAST AND COAST RANGE RAWS STATIONS CONTINUE TO REPORT A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR. MOST OF THE RAIN HAS ENDED FOR THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS THE BEST FORCING PUSHES NORTH AND EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...W-SW 850 MB FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 35-45 KT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME RAIN IN THE PICTURE TONIGHT IN THE
COAST RANGE AND CASCADES. RAIN RATES SHOULD EASE UP A BIT TONIGHT AS
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS NORTH WITH THE WARM FRONT INTO
WASHINGTON.
HIGHER PRESSURE IS ALREADY BUILDING NORTHWARD INTO OREGON...BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS WILL ACCELERATE THE DRYING TREND
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SALEM SOUTHWARD. ADDITIONALLY...THIS SHOULD
FORCE THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE AND DEEPEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT
NORTHWARD INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND AND NW WASHINGTON. MOST MODELS SHOW
AT LEAST 20-30 KT OF W-SW 850 MB FLOW CONTINUING PORTLAND NORTHWARD
INTO MONDAY...WHICH IN THIS MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
SOME RAIN AND DRIZZLE GOING ACROSS MUCH OF SW WASHINGTON. EVEN KEPT
SOME LOW-END POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE PDX METRO...THOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE IN OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
WITH WARMER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...THE CHANCE FOR INVERSIONS AND
VALLEY FOG WILL BE INCREASING FOR THE EUGENE AREA TONIGHT/MON MORNING
THEN ACROSS MUCH OF CWA MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE. THIS COULD PUT A MONKEY
WRENCH IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...BUT FOR NOW GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF EARLY ENOUGH FOR IT TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON
MAX TEMPS. OTHERWISE...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS AROUND 570 DAM AND 850 MB
TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF +4 TO +8 DEG C...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY AND PROBABLY WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
NIGHTS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD DUE TO THE HIGH DEWPOINTS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS MOIST AIR MASS.
MODELS ARE COMING INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE PAC NW COAST EARLY WED...SPREADING RAIN ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT A QUICK DROP IN
SNOW LEVELS AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...WITH SNOW LEVELS
POSSIBLY AS LOW AS THE CASCADE PASSES BY WED NIGHT. 18Z GFS SHOWS
925-850 MB WINDS REACHING 45-55 KT ALONG THE COAST WED AFTERNOON. IF
THIS VERIFIES IT COULD BE A BIT WINDY ALONG THE COAST JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...THOUGH AM INCLINED TO BELIEVE THE NEUTRAL OR NEGATIVE
TILT TO THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.WEAGLE
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH BACK-TO-BACK SYSTEMS
BRINGING RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DROPS DOWN
OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA MIDWEEK...BRINGING SNOW LEVELS MAYBE FAR
ENOUGH DOWN TO BRING SOME SNOW TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS THURSDAY. SNOW LEVELS COME UP A BIT ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT MOVING THROUGH MID-DAY. SNOW LEVELS DROP BACK DOWN BEHIND
THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ANOTHER BRIEF CHANCE FOR SNOW IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS EARLY SATURDAY. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING RIDGING BUILDING BACK IN NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD BRING
BACK DRY OFFSHORE FLOW. -MCCOY
&&
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR INLAND AND IFR OVER THE COAST EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MOST RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR/LOW-END VFR AFTER 18Z MON FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. COASTAL
AREAS LIKELY TO REMAIN IFR TO MVFR THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. WARM
FRONT SLOWLY LIFT N LATE TONIGHT AND MON AND WOULD EXPECT AREAS S
OF A KONP-KCVO LINE TO HAVE MORE VFR AFTER 18Z MON. STRONG WLY
850 MB FLOW WILL MAINTAIN IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...LOW-END MVFR CIGS AROUND 1500 FT EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH MON MORNING. GOOD CHANCE THAT AREAS OF IFR WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO HIGH-END MVFR OR EVEN
LOW-END VFR 18Z MON. WEISHAAR
&&
.MARINE...WARM FRONT DRAPED OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS HAVE EASED JUST A BIT FROM THIS MORNING...WITH ALL OUTER
BUOYS REPORTING 20 KT OR LESS AT 21Z. 14Z RUC A LITTLE WEAKER ON
FORECAST WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT COMPARED TO THE LATEST 12Z NAM. NAM
AND GFS ON TRACK SHOWING THE SLIGHT DECREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER
WIND SPEEDS FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MODELS INCREASE THE WIND
SPEEDS TONIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
WIND OVER THE NRN WATERS THROUGH 08Z TUE. SRN WATERS WILL BE A
LITTLE TRICKY. NAM AND GFS SHOW A PERIOD OF SUB-ADVISORY WIND
SPEEDS THIS EVENING THROUGH ABOUT 08Z MON...THEN INDICATE A SLIGHT
INCREASE THEREAFTER. DECIDED TO GO WITH TWO DISTINCT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES DUE TO THE TIME LENGTH OF FORECAST SUB-ADVISORY SPEEDS.
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM REACHES THE WATERS LATE WED. GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DIFFERENCES...ESPECIALLY TIMING. FAVORED
THE ECMWF BUT WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND SPEEDS. POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR LOW-END GALE GUSTS WED NIGHT. MODELS IN A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE FRI SYSTEM AND HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SOLID
GALES WILL DEVELOP. HAVE INDICATED GUSTS TO 40 KT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS.
SEAS HOVERING AT OR JUST ABOVE 10 FT THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS LIKELY TO BE JUST
UNDER 10 FT MON...BUT THEN EXCEED 10 FT LATE MON AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. LATEST ENP RUN HAS SEAS INCREASING TO NEAR 15 FT
AROUND MID-WEEK. MODELS DIFFER OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT HAVE SOME
SEMBLANCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRES AND LIGHT OFFSHORE SURFACE FLOW.
THUS...THE 20 FT SEAS GUIDANCE SHOWED YESTERDAY FOR THE WEEKEND
ARE NO LONGER PRESENT. INSTEAD...LATEST SPECTRAL ANALYSIS FOR
BUOY 029 NOW SHOWS 10 TO 12 FT SUN. WEISHAAR
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 PM PST MONDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM
PST MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE
OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 1 PM
PST THIS AFTERNOON.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 7 PM
THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 9 AM TO
NOON PST MONDAY.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
956 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TODAY...THEN OFF THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT. A DEEPENING UPPER LVL TROF OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
SPAWN A LOW PRES SYSTEM...WHICH WILL LIKELY TRACK NORTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN PA ON TUESDAY. LATER IN THE WEEK...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN ALOFT WITH MUCH WARMER AIR FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES....IN MOST AREAS
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS IN THE SOUTH
AND WITH LIGHT WINDS THE WINDCHILL ISSUES ARE NO LONGER
SIGNIFICANT. ALONG THE NEW YORK BORDER THERE ARE STILL MANY
LOCATIONS WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO AND WINDCHILLS IN THE -10
TO -20 RANGE.
THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TODAY AND WITH LIGHT WINDS ALL
WINDCHILL ISSUES WILL BE HISTORY. WE HAVE LET BOTH THE ADVISORY
AND WARNINGS EXPIRE AS OF 11 AM.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT SNOW COULD ARRIVE IN EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS LATER THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE HRRR AND 12Z NAM SHOW LIGHT SNOW ARRIVING LATER EVENING IN
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS AND VERY SLOWY SPREADING NORTHWARD.
IT SHOULD BECOME CLOUDY OVERNIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING EARLY THEN SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT. ANY SNOW
WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
REGION.
THE SREF IMPLIES MAINLY VERY LIGHT SNOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN AND
WESTERN AREAS THROUGH MID-MORNING MONDAY. THEN THE PROBABILITY OF
SNOW RAPIDLY SPREADS NORTHWARD IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SNOW OR
MIXED PRECIPITATION EVERYWHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON. BUT WARM AIR
WILL CAUSE A MIXING WITH ICE PELLETS AND FREEZING RAIN IN SOUTHERN
AREAS BY AFTERNOON.
THE SNOW WILL MIX WITH ICE PELLETS FARTHER NORTH LATER IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHICH IS THE NEXT PERIOD.
WE ARE GOING TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AFTER ABOUT
MIDDAY AFTER WE SEE MORE 12Z MODELS AND ENSEMBLES.
PREVIOUS:
DEVELOPING WAA BTWN DEPARTING SFC HIGH AND WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST WILL SPREAD INCREASING CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT. A BIT OF LGT SNOW COULD DEVELOP OVR
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES LATE SUN NIGHT.
HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LOW PWAT AIR ASSOC WITH DEPARTING ARCTIC AIR
MASS SHOULD LIMIT ANY ACCUMS TO A DUSTING.
EARLY RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD DROP TEMPERATURES OFF FAST THIS
EVENING...BUT RETURN FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY RISE LATE TONIGHT.
SPOTTY LGT SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PA MON MORNING WILL
LIKELY GIVE WAY TO A STEADIER SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN PA LATE IN THE
DAY...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF POTENT SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE MISS VALLEY AND ASSOC SOUTHERLY LL JET.
GEFS/SREF PTYPE PROBS SUGGEST SOME MIXING MAY WORK INTO THE S TIER
COUNTIES BY EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MDL SPREAD CONTINUES TO NARROW...WITH MOST RUNS TRACKING SFC LOW
ACROSS EASTERN PA TUESDAY...SUPPORTING RAISING POPS TO NEAR 100
PCT LATE MONDAY-EARLY TUESDAY. THIS TRACK WOULD CERTAINLY FAVOR
RAIN ACROSS EASTERN PA AND RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS WESTERN PA. BULK OF
MDL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AN EVENTUAL TURNOVER TO RAIN ACROSS ALL BUT
PERHAPS THE NW MTNS BY EARLY TUES AM. ENSEMBLE PLUMES AND WPC
GUIDANCE SUPPORT A GENERAL 1-3 INCH SNOW ACCUM BEFORE CHANGEOVER.
SFC HIGH PROGGED EAST OF NJ IS IN A POSITION UNFAVORABLE TO HOLD
LL COLD AIR IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A TRANSITION PERIOD OF FZRA STILL
APPEARS QUITE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL PA MON EVENING. WPC GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS MARGINAL WARNING CRITERIA FOR ICE ACCRETION OVR THE SC
MTNS. HOWEVER...SREF/GEFS PLUMES INDICATE SUCH ICE AMTS ARE FAR
FROM CERTAIN. HAVE THEREFORE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES
ATTM. MAIN EVENT DOESN/T UNFOLD UNTIL LATE MONDAY...SO STILL TIME
TO HONE FCST WITH BENEFIT OF LATER GUIDANCE.
WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PA...GIVEN RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT POTENTIAL. LATEST MDL
ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS SUGGESTS MINOR FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY BY TUES. WPC ALSO HAS HIGHLIGHTED SE
PA FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF FLOODING TUESDAY.
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS APPEAR LIKELY LATER NEXT WEEK...AS
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE AND A PSBL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TO THE WEST OF PA.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY GOOD WEATHER TODAY BECOME VFR ALL LOCATIONS. COLD WITH
LIGHT WINDS. CLOUDS MOVE IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD
OF APPROACHING WAVE.
PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS CIG RESTRICTIONS
SLIDE IN FROM THE SW AGAIN STARTING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AHEAD OF
NEXT STORM SYSTEM. SNOW MONDAY WILL TRANSITION TO ASSORTED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN AREAS OF RAIN IN THE SE HALF
ON TUE. EXPECT A LONG-DURATION IMPACT TO FLYING CONDITIONS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MON...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS DEVELOP WITH SNOW DEVELOPING.
MON NIGHT AND TUE...SNOW LIKELY WRN HALF OF PENN...WITH RAIN
AND/OR SNOW IN THE SE. WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS SET IN. LLWS POSS
SE.
WED...ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES THROUGH KEEPING RESTRICTIONS IN
PLACE ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW...ESP OVER THE WEST.
THU...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004>006-
037-041-042.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ010>012-017>019-024>028-033>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...GRUMM/RXR
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1009 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016
A LATE UPDATE...BUT NECESSARY NONE THE LESS. UPGRADED A NUMBER OF
COUNTIES TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW. THERE ARE
PRESENTLY AREAS EXPERIENCING 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH AN HOUR SNOWFALL
RATES. EAGLE BUTTE REPORTED 5.5 INCHES OF SNOW ABOUT AN HOUR AGO
AND STILL SNOWING. WITH THE HRRR/RAP UPDATING AND HIGHLIGHTING
ABOUT 6 MORE HOURS OF LIFT/FORCING CAPABLE OF GENERATING THESE
HIGH SNOWFALL RATES OF ACCUMULATION. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD END
UP PRODUCING A WIDESPREAD 5 TO 7 INCH SNOWFALL HIGHLIGHTED MAINLY
WITHIN THE WARNED AREA. UPDATES ARE OUT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 557 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. ALSO MADE A COUPLE OF UPDATES
TO THE WEATHER GRIDS TO INTRODUCE THUNDER MENTION TO THE FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW THAT IS CONTINUING TO BE FORECAST ACROSS THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY BEING GENERATED ON THE PVA SIDE OF THIS POTENT UPPER
WAVE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...INCLUDING AN UPTICK IN LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY TO OVER 30 CG LIGHTNING STRIKES LAST HOUR. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TRENDS THIS EVENING TO SEE IF/WHEN ANY FORECAST ZONES
MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW. LATEST HRRR
OUTPUT SEEMS TO SUGGEST THIS CWA WILL BE MISSED BY THE MOST
INTENSE CONVECTIVELY-INFLUENCED SNOW OVERNIGHT. STAY TUNED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016
FAIRLY ACTIVE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THE AREA AS TWO FEATURES
WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL
OVER THE CWA. THE STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA IS STILL LOCATED IN CENTRAL MONTANA
AT THIS TIME...AND IS LEADING TO A COUPLE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION
IN EASTERN MONTANA (ONE ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND ANOTHER TIED TO
THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT). CLOSER TO THE AREA...SEEING
PRECIPITATION JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THAT IS
SLOWLY MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST. THIS PRECIPITATION IS DUE TO THE
INITIAL AREA OF MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT STRETCHING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
WEBCAMS SHOW THAT THE PRECIPITATION TOWARDS HAAKON/STANLEY
COUNTIES IS IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THAT AREA AROUND OR ABOVE FREEZING...DON/T THINK THERE IS TOO MUCH
FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING AT THIS POINT. FARTHER NORTH...RAP
ANALYSIS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE WARM NOSE ALOFT WEAKENS WHICH
SHOULD TRANSITION THE PRECIP TO SNOW THE FARTHER NORTH YOU HEAD.
OVER THE REST OF THE AREA...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN LOWERING WITH THE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FAIRLY COLD OVER NORTHEAST SD...WHERE 2PM
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AT K8D3 TO 13 AT
KABR AND THEN 17 AT KMBG.
MODELS CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TRACK/EVOLUTION OF THE
SHORTWAVE IN MONTANA...WHICH LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST SNOWFALL OVER N.C./N.E. SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP AND 12Z GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE TRENDED THE TRACK OF THE STRONGEST FORCING A LITTLE
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND IN SOME CASES ONLY BARELY BRUSHING
SOUTHWESTERN SD. WHILE THAT BEST FORCING SLIDES SOUTHWEST OF
MUCH OF THE AREA...STILL HAVE SOME SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH
AND ESPECIALLY FROM THE WARM AIR ADVECTION / ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT TROUGH THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS. FAIRLY STRONG LIFT WITH THE WAA (AND SEEN IN THE 700MB
OMEGA) WITH FAVORABLE 850-500MB Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE.
THEREFORE...EXPECT TO SEE A FAIRLY QUICK HITTING (4-7HR PERIOD)
AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED QPF
AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH WITH THE MOST RECENT RUNS...SOME EVEN
SHOWING 12HR QPF AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 0.6IN BETWEEN
MOBRIDGE/ABERDEEN. THAT POTENTIAL (LIKELY SOMEWHAT CONVECTIVELY
DRIVEN WITH 750-500MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM) WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED THROUGH THE EVENING AND IF IT SETS UP AS SHOWN WITH SOME
OF THE HIGHER RES RUNS...MAY NEED TO UPGRADE A FEW COUNTIES TO
WARNINGS. WITH THAT FARTHER NORTH TREND...EXPECT A LITTLE LESS
IMPACT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA...BUT STILL THINK THE POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE ENDING. THAT
NORTHWARD SHIFT SHOULD KEEP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BELOW 2 INCHES FROM
PIERRE AND SOUTHWEST (WHERE SOME AREAS WILL STAY MAINLY RAIN).
AS FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST...HAVE A GENERAL 3-6 INCHES WITH SNOW RATIOS
INCREASING FROM AROUND 10-1 AROUND THE MISSOURI RIVER TO THE
12-14 TO 1 RANGE OVER THE NORTHEAST. OVER THE NORTHEAST...A GOOD
PORTION OF THE LIFT IS AT OR ABOVE THE DGZ...WHICH WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO MORE COLUMNS IN THE SNOW PROCESS AND MORE POTENTIAL FOR
COMPACTING (ALONG WITH AGGREGATION AS THE SNOW FALLS THROUGH THE
CLOUD LAYER BELOW THE DGZ). THUS...DIDN/T WANT TO GO MUCH HIGHER
THAN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED VALUES ...ALTHOUGH RATIOS COULD
BRIEFLY INCREASE IF THE FORCING ALIGNS A LITTLE LOWER AND IN THE
DGZ. WITH THE HIGHER QPF AND RATIOS...HAVE NEAR WARNING SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS (5.5-6IN) OVER MCPHERSON/EDMUNDS/BROWN/MARSHALL/DAY
COUNTIES. WITH THE VARIABILITY IN THE MODEL RUNS TODAY...DIDN/T
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING AT THIS POINT AND
THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE. IN
ADDITION...WITH THE SNOW OCCURRING LATE THIS EVENING AND DURING
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGHT THE IMPACTS WOULD BE LOWER
THAN IF IT OCCURRED DURING THE DAY.
ONE OTHER ITEM TO MENTION WILL BE THE GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS INITIALLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH (GUSTS TO
25-30MPH). THAT WILL LEAD TO PATCHY/AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THAT IN THE FORECAST/WSW.
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY (LARGELY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF/THIRD OF THE CWA). A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH WILL
BE OVER THE AREA AND LIMIT THE WINDS AND IN TURN ANY BLOWING SNOW
CONCERNS. IN ADDITION...WITH THE WARM AIR OVER THE
AREA BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH...HIGHS WILL RISE
INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S OVER THE FAR EAST TO THE LOWER 40S ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016
LOW TEMP FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT IS A BIT TRICKY. AREA WILL STILL
BE IN A RELATIVELY MILD AIR MASS WITH 925MB TEMPS AROUND 0C TO +2C
AND A LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST SFC WIND. ALTHOUGH...WILL HAVE TO KEEP
IN MIND THE FRESH COAT OF SNOW THAT WILL BE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
THERE WILL BE SOME DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER AS WELL...SO TRYING TO
FIGURE OUT WHICH VARIABLES HAVE THE BIGGEST IMPACT ON TEMPS IS
TRICKY.
WILL THEN BE WATCHING THE NEXT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WHICH WILL
BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED
POPS FOR THIS EVENT AS MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF QPF. AGAIN...COULD BE DEALING WITH MIXED PRECIP
ISSUES AS THERE WILL BE WARM AIR IN PLACE.
YET ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BUT IS LOOKING RATHER
WEAK AT THIS POINT. SUPERBLEND GAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND THIS
LOOKS GOOD FOR THE TIME BEING. ONLY CHANGE HERE WAS TO REMOVE THE
SLIGHT CHANCES THEY INITIAL GAVE ON TUESDAY AND HELD THINGS OFF TO
TUESDAY NIGHT PER MODEL DATA.
TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD STAY ON THE MILD SIDE...ESPECIALLY BY
THURSDAY WHEN MODELS TRY TO BRING IN SOME VERY MILD AIR. 925MB TEMPS
AROUND +20C SHOW UP IN THE MODELS OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
SD. SUPERBLEND TEMPS HAVE READINGS AS WARM AS THE 60S OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CWA ON THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016
SNOW EVENT IS ONGOING. IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE AT
KMBG OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KPIR AND KATY MAY BOUNCE IN AND OUT
OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BUT THEN KPIR SHOULD
BEGIN TO IMPROVE WHILE KATY BEGINS TO TANK. KATY AND KABR SHOULD
REMAIN DOWN IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
THROUGH SUNRISE BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE SUNDAY MORNING.
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...ANOTHER ROUND OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS COULD
BE WORKING INTO THE KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR SDZ009-
015-016-034-036.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR SDZ007-008-021.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR SDZ003-
004-033-035-045-048-051.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR SDZ005.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR SDZ006-010-017-018-
037.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR SDZ011-019-020-022-
023.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR MNZ039-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...DORN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1015 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016
A LATE UPDATE...BUT NECESSARY NONE THE LESS. UPGRADED A NUMBER OF
COUNTIES TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW. THERE ARE
PRESENTLY AREAS EXPERIENCING 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH AN HOUR SNOWFALL
RATES. EAGLE BUTTE REPORTED 5.5 INCHES OF SNOW ABOUT AN HOUR AGO
AND STILL SNOWING. WITH THE HRRR/RAP UPDATING AND HIGHLIGHTING
ABOUT 6 MORE HOURS OF LIFT/FORCING CAPABLE OF GENERATING THESE
HIGH SNOWFALL RATES OF ACCUMULATION. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD END
UP PRODUCING A WIDESPREAD 5 TO 7 INCH SNOWFALL HIGHLIGHTED MAINLY
WITHIN THE WARNED AREA. UPDATES ARE OUT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 557 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. ALSO MADE A COUPLE OF UPDATES
TO THE WEATHER GRIDS TO INTRODUCE THUNDER MENTION TO THE FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW THAT IS CONTINUING TO BE FORECAST ACROSS THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY BEING GENERATED ON THE PVA SIDE OF THIS POTENT UPPER
WAVE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...INCLUDING AN UPTICK IN LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY TO OVER 30 CG LIGHTNING STRIKES LAST HOUR. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TRENDS THIS EVENING TO SEE IF/WHEN ANY FORECAST ZONES
MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW. LATEST HRRR
OUTPUT SEEMS TO SUGGEST THIS CWA WILL BE MISSED BY THE MOST
INTENSE CONVECTIVELY-INFLUENCED SNOW OVERNIGHT. STAY TUNED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016
FAIRLY ACTIVE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THE AREA AS TWO FEATURES
WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL
OVER THE CWA. THE STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA IS STILL LOCATED IN CENTRAL MONTANA
AT THIS TIME...AND IS LEADING TO A COUPLE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION
IN EASTERN MONTANA (ONE ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND ANOTHER TIED TO
THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT). CLOSER TO THE AREA...SEEING
PRECIPITATION JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THAT IS
SLOWLY MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST. THIS PRECIPITATION IS DUE TO THE
INITIAL AREA OF MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT STRETCHING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
WEBCAMS SHOW THAT THE PRECIPITATION TOWARDS HAAKON/STANLEY
COUNTIES IS IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THAT AREA AROUND OR ABOVE FREEZING...DON/T THINK THERE IS TOO MUCH
FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING AT THIS POINT. FARTHER NORTH...RAP
ANALYSIS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE WARM NOSE ALOFT WEAKENS WHICH
SHOULD TRANSITION THE PRECIP TO SNOW THE FARTHER NORTH YOU HEAD.
OVER THE REST OF THE AREA...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN LOWERING WITH THE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FAIRLY COLD OVER NORTHEAST SD...WHERE 2PM
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AT K8D3 TO 13 AT
KABR AND THEN 17 AT KMBG.
MODELS CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TRACK/EVOLUTION OF THE
SHORTWAVE IN MONTANA...WHICH LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST SNOWFALL OVER N.C./N.E. SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP AND 12Z GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE TRENDED THE TRACK OF THE STRONGEST FORCING A LITTLE
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND IN SOME CASES ONLY BARELY BRUSHING
SOUTHWESTERN SD. WHILE THAT BEST FORCING SLIDES SOUTHWEST OF
MUCH OF THE AREA...STILL HAVE SOME SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH
AND ESPECIALLY FROM THE WARM AIR ADVECTION / ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT TROUGH THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS. FAIRLY STRONG LIFT WITH THE WAA (AND SEEN IN THE 700MB
OMEGA) WITH FAVORABLE 850-500MB Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE.
THEREFORE...EXPECT TO SEE A FAIRLY QUICK HITTING (4-7HR PERIOD)
AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED QPF
AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH WITH THE MOST RECENT RUNS...SOME EVEN
SHOWING 12HR QPF AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 0.6IN BETWEEN
MOBRIDGE/ABERDEEN. THAT POTENTIAL (LIKELY SOMEWHAT CONVECTIVELY
DRIVEN WITH 750-500MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM) WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED THROUGH THE EVENING AND IF IT SETS UP AS SHOWN WITH SOME
OF THE HIGHER RES RUNS...MAY NEED TO UPGRADE A FEW COUNTIES TO
WARNINGS. WITH THAT FARTHER NORTH TREND...EXPECT A LITTLE LESS
IMPACT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA...BUT STILL THINK THE POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE ENDING. THAT
NORTHWARD SHIFT SHOULD KEEP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BELOW 2 INCHES FROM
PIERRE AND SOUTHWEST (WHERE SOME AREAS WILL STAY MAINLY RAIN).
AS FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST...HAVE A GENERAL 3-6 INCHES WITH SNOW RATIOS
INCREASING FROM AROUND 10-1 AROUND THE MISSOURI RIVER TO THE
12-14 TO 1 RANGE OVER THE NORTHEAST. OVER THE NORTHEAST...A GOOD
PORTION OF THE LIFT IS AT OR ABOVE THE DGZ...WHICH WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO MORE COLUMNS IN THE SNOW PROCESS AND MORE POTENTIAL FOR
COMPACTING (ALONG WITH AGGREGATION AS THE SNOW FALLS THROUGH THE
CLOUD LAYER BELOW THE DGZ). THUS...DIDN/T WANT TO GO MUCH HIGHER
THAN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED VALUES ...ALTHOUGH RATIOS COULD
BRIEFLY INCREASE IF THE FORCING ALIGNS A LITTLE LOWER AND IN THE
DGZ. WITH THE HIGHER QPF AND RATIOS...HAVE NEAR WARNING SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS (5.5-6IN) OVER MCPHERSON/EDMUNDS/BROWN/MARSHALL/DAY
COUNTIES. WITH THE VARIABILITY IN THE MODEL RUNS TODAY...DIDN/T
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING AT THIS POINT AND
THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE. IN
ADDITION...WITH THE SNOW OCCURRING LATE THIS EVENING AND DURING
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGHT THE IMPACTS WOULD BE LOWER
THAN IF IT OCCURRED DURING THE DAY.
ONE OTHER ITEM TO MENTION WILL BE THE GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS INITIALLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH (GUSTS TO
25-30MPH). THAT WILL LEAD TO PATCHY/AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THAT IN THE FORECAST/WSW.
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY (LARGELY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF/THIRD OF THE CWA). A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH WILL
BE OVER THE AREA AND LIMIT THE WINDS AND IN TURN ANY BLOWING SNOW
CONCERNS. IN ADDITION...WITH THE WARM AIR OVER THE
AREA BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH...HIGHS WILL RISE
INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S OVER THE FAR EAST TO THE LOWER 40S ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016
LOW TEMP FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT IS A BIT TRICKY. AREA WILL STILL
BE IN A RELATIVELY MILD AIR MASS WITH 925MB TEMPS AROUND 0C TO +2C
AND A LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST SFC WIND. ALTHOUGH...WILL HAVE TO KEEP
IN MIND THE FRESH COAT OF SNOW THAT WILL BE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
THERE WILL BE SOME DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER AS WELL...SO TRYING TO
FIGURE OUT WHICH VARIABLES HAVE THE BIGGEST IMPACT ON TEMPS IS
TRICKY.
WILL THEN BE WATCHING THE NEXT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WHICH WILL
BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED
POPS FOR THIS EVENT AS MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF QPF. AGAIN...COULD BE DEALING WITH MIXED PRECIP
ISSUES AS THERE WILL BE WARM AIR IN PLACE.
YET ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BUT IS LOOKING RATHER
WEAK AT THIS POINT. SUPERBLEND GAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND THIS
LOOKS GOOD FOR THE TIME BEING. ONLY CHANGE HERE WAS TO REMOVE THE
SLIGHT CHANCES THEY INITIAL GAVE ON TUESDAY AND HELD THINGS OFF TO
TUESDAY NIGHT PER MODEL DATA.
TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD STAY ON THE MILD SIDE...ESPECIALLY BY
THURSDAY WHEN MODELS TRY TO BRING IN SOME VERY MILD AIR. 925MB TEMPS
AROUND +20C SHOW UP IN THE MODELS OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
SD. SUPERBLEND TEMPS HAVE READINGS AS WARM AS THE 60S OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CWA ON THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 557 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016
FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL BE BOUNCING IN AND OUT OF MVFR/IFR RANGE FOR
CIGS AND VISBIES WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW /PERHAPS EVEN SOME
THUNDER TOO/ PROBABLE AT THE KPIR TERMINAL NOW THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
KMBG...KABR AND KATY WILL PROBABLY JUST SEE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS AT KMBG AND KPIR
WILL SUBSIDE WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT AT
KABR/KATY...THE BREEZY TO OCCASIONALLY WINDY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE BACKING DOWN.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR SDZ009-
015-016-034-036.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR SDZ007-008-021.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR SDZ003-
004-033-035-045-048-051.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR SDZ005.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR SDZ006-010-017-018-
037.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR SDZ011-019-020-022-
023.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR MNZ039-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...DORN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
556 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED ALONG THE COAST
AND THE SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT
TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. DEWPOINT TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 60S ALONG
A ROCKPORT TO CORPUS NAS TO BAFFIN BAY LINE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO VEER NORTHEAST AND EAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HI-RES NMM AND RAP SHOW DENSE FOG IS A POSSIBILITY FROM RKP
TO NGP TO NQI. ALI AND CRP WILL BE ON THE BORDER ON WHETHER
THIS HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REACH THIS AREA FOR
DENSE FOG TO FORM. MOS GUIDANCE DEPICTS HIGHER PROBABILITY
OF FOG WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRIER AIR SHOULD LIMIT
FOG FORMATION. FOR NOW...WILL SHOW FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS AT
ALI AND CRP FROM 08-09Z THROUGH 15Z WITH TEMPO FOR IFR VSBYS.
RAP AND HI-RES NMM SHOW DENSE FOG OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS MAY
ADVECT NORTHWEST TOWARD LAREDO AROUND DAYBREAK. WILL INSERT
A TEMPO GROUP FOR 3SM VSBY FROM 12-16Z. VICTORIA AREA SHOULD
BE IN REGION OF LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BUT COULD SEE
GROUND FOG FORM BEFORE DAYBREAK. PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FROM
09-13Z FOR MVFR VSBYS AT VCT. VFR/CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 16Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...MAIN QUESTION FOR
THE SHORT TERM PERIODS IS (GUESS WHAT) THE FOG (AGAIN). FOG
FORMATION A BIT MORE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER
INLAND AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST...AS WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW COMBINE WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS TO
PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG. FOR TONIGHT...A BIT TRICKIER AS MODEL (NON-
BUFKIT) SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING PRETTY GOOD DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS.
HOWEVER...SOME OF THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DENSE FOG LATE
VICTORIA AREA AND LIGHT FOG SOUTHERN INLAND AREAS (GFS
12Z)...WHILE NAM 12Z BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FOG FROM GROUND-AIR
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES MOST INLAND AREAS. THUS...WILL MENTION FOG
TONIGHT USUAL LOCATIONS...SINCE DEW POINTS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
DO NOT DROP A LOT...BUT COULD BE MORE PATCHY AND GROUND FOG THAN
RADIATION/DEEPER FOG. AGAIN...FOG LOOKS BETTER TUESDAY NIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 40S MOST INLAND AREAS...AND 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THUS...COULD SEE A BIG TEMPERATURE RANGE FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO AS LITTLE AS 10 MILES INLAND.
ANOTHER WARM DAY TUESDAY WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER (AT LEAST INITIALLY). DID NOT DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS. A BIT WARMER TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT
TEMPERATURES COULD FALL MORE IF THE FOG REALLY GETS DENSE AND
RADIATIONAL COOLING REALLY TAKES OVER. OTHER THAN THE FOG...PRETTY
STRAIGHT-FORWARD FORECAST WITH NOT MUCH IN WINDS AND NO RAINFALL
OR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...NO MARINE ISSUES. WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME TONIGHT BUT WELL BELOW SCA/SCEC. LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS TUESDAY BECOMING LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A PERSISTENT STRONG RDG AXIS
ALOFT WL REMAIN IN FIRM CONTROL OF OUR WX THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WL
RESULT IN A MAINTENANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTN WHERE TEMPS WL AVG 10-15 DEGS ABV NORMAL. STRONGER RETURN FLOW
DURING THE THU-SAT TIMEFRAME WL AID IN SLOWLY INCREASING THE
BOUNDARY LYR MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENT CLOUD CVR. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE A CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BY LATE IN THE FCST
PD. THE RDG AXIS ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN AS S/WV ENERGY
FROM THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS GRADUALLY CARVES OUT A L/W TROUGH AXIS.
AN ASSCTD COLD FRONT WL MOVE TWDS THE AREA BY MONDAY. SUFFICIENT
FORCING AND MOISTURE WL BE PREVALENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCTD
STORMS SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 49 83 55 81 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 45 80 50 80 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 51 85 57 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALICE 47 85 52 83 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 56 77 55 73 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 47 83 51 86 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 47 82 51 82 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 58 77 60 74 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TMT/89...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
325 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THIS
EVENING WITH SNOW MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS. BY MONDAY...LOW
PRESSURE WORKS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE EXPECT SNOW CHANGING TO A
WINTRY MIX MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EST SUNDAY...
WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON ON TUESDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVEL EAST TONIGHT...AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM
THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO WILL OVERRUN THE ARCTIC AIR
RESULTING IN SNOW TONIGHT.
LIGHT SNOW HAS STARTED IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD EASTWARD TONIGHT. PTYPE WILL STAY AS
ALL SNOW TONIGHT BECAUSE AIRMASS IS VERY COLD WITH THERMAL PROFILE
STAYING BELOW ZERO THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. SHAPED EVENING POPS TOWARDS A
BLEND OF HRRR AND HIRESW-ARW-EAST...THEN LEANED TOWARDS GFS. NAM
SOLUTION WAS TOO SLOW AND TOO DEEP WITH THE STORM...THUS FOLLOWED
WPC WEIGHTING MORE TOWARDS GFS. MODELS FAVOR A MOUNTAIN EMPIRE TO
WESTERN GREENBRIER CORRIDOR FOR HEAVIER SNOW BAND POTENTIAL BY
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SMALLER BANDS OF SNOW SHOULD SLIDE EAST TO THE
PIEDMONT THROUGH THE NIGHT. USED A SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS CLOSE A
20:1 RANGE EARLY TONIGHT...THEN DROPPING TOWARD 15:1 BY 12Z MONDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TEENS IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 20S IN THE PIEDMONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
TROUGH. WARMER AIR WILL PUSH IN ALOFT AND MIX IN SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN ON MONDAY. THE COLDER AIR WILL HOLD IN THE NORTH THE LONGEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S WEST OF I77 MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND WARM AIR WILL ALSO PUSH NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. USED A TOPDOWN APPROACH
FOR WEATHER TYPE WITH PRIMARY MODEL GFS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO-
TENTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL VARY GREATLY BECAUSE OF THE WINTRY
MIX FROM 2 INCHES IN NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT TO AS MUCH AS 5 TO 10
INCHES IN NORTHWEST GREENBRIER BY MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 322 PM EST SUNDAY...
MAY INIT WITHIN A LULL IN HEAVIER PRECIP AS A DRY SLOT REMAINS IN
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND THE AXIS OF BETTER
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACTUAL SURFACE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SW.
THIS MAINLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z BEFORE THE NEXT SLUG OF DEEPER MOISTURE
ARRIVES OVER THE FAR WEST AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS IN TRACKING THE MAIN WAVE EITHER OVER THE MOUNTAINS OR JUST
TO THE WEST...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.
THIS SEEN VIA MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING 50+ KTS AT 85H FROM THE SOUTH WHILE
TEMPS WITHIN THAT LAYER SURGE TO +4C TO +6C IN THE WARM NOSE. HOWEVER
THROUGH MIDNIGHT WILL STILL SEE MUCH OF THE REGION HAVE SURFACE TEMPS
NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING MAKING FOR CONTINUED LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN
ALL EXCEPT THE FAR WEST AND SE. APPEARS ADDED QPF THOUGH WILL BE LIGHT
AND MAINLY SUPPORTED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT BLUE RIDGE.
BIGGER CONCERN DEVELOPS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE HEAVIER BAND OF PRECIP
ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH/WAVE SHIFTS EAST REACHING THE PIEDMONT
OVERNIGHT. MODELS SHOW CONTINUED WARMING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER
THIS HEAVIER PRECIP AXIS AS COMBO OF THE DEEPENING WARMING ALOFT AND
PERHAPS PRECIP FALLING THROUGH THAT LAYER HELP TO BUMP MOST TO ABOVE
FREEZING FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY. SINCE THIS MAY BE
SLOWER TO ERODE OVER THE EARLIER SNOW PACK...SLOWLY TRANSITIONING THE
PTYPE FROM FREEZING RAIN TO ALL RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY MORNING.
THUS RUNNING WITH SOME LIGHT ADDED SNOW FAR NW EARLY ON...FOLLOWED BY
MORE SIGNIFICANT ICING ESPCLY BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS NORTH/EAST OF ROUTE
460 WHERE COULD SEE UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF ICE IN THE LATE EVENING TO
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME. KEPT TEMPS NEAR FREEZING OR JUST
BELOW EARLY ON WITH SLOW RISES BY MORNING WHEN MOST SHOULD BE NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE FREEZING EXCLUDING THE VALLEYS UP NORTH. ALSO IF TEMPS END
UP WARMER AND QPF IS MORE THEN POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ESPCLY EAST AS
MODELS SHOW A GOOD INCH OF QPF BLUE RIDGE EAST OVERNIGHT ON TOP OF
EARLIER SNOW/ICE AND FROZEN GROUND. THEREFORE ADDED MENTION TO THE HWO
FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WATCH CONCERNS ON THE HEELS OF THE WINTER STORM
HEADLINES BY TUESDAY.
SYSTEM GOES NEGATIVE TILT AND QUICKLY EXITS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING COLD ADVECTION TO KICK BACK IN ESPCLY MOUNTAINS WHERE MAY
SWITCH TO SNOW SHOWERS WESTERN SLOPES. ELSEWHERE AFTER EARLY HIGH POPS
EAST EXPECT A BREAK UNDER WEAK SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER DIGGING
UPSTREAM CLIPPER THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY.
COULD ALSO SEE SOME BREAKS DEVELOP THAT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER
BACK INTO THE 30S/40S MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY LOW 50S PIEDMONT.
THE CLIPPER GLIDES IN FROM THE WEST ON THE TAIL OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS ALOFT COLD ENOUGH FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW
MOUNTAINS AND RAIN/SNOW EAST OVERNIGHT. LATEST MODELS SUGGEST AN INCH
OR TWO OF SNOW COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGHER WESTERN ELEVATIONS BUT
LITTLE ELSEWHERE AS TEMPS MARGINAL HEADING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THUS
INCLUDING SOME HIGH CHANCE POPS WEST...AND LOW POPS TO JUST EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS FOR NOW. LOWS MAINLY UPPER 20S TO LOW/MID 30S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST SUNDAY...
UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY BEHIND A DEPARTING CLIPPER THAT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIVE UPSLOPE FLOW...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE WESTERN
SLOPES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SUPPORTS KEEPING ADDED SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE WEST ESPCLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THUS KEEPING CHANCE POPS OVER
THE FAR WEST INTO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE RIDGING STARTS TO
TAKE SHAPE THURSDAY AS CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND
MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS IN. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS
BY THURSDAY ALTHOUGH STILL WELL INTO THE 20S AT NIGHT.
A MUCH MORE TRANQUIL AND NEEDED WARMER SCENARIO TO UNFOLD FROM FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH OVERALL ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE AS THE MAJORITY OF
ANY COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE NORTH. WILL SEE A WEAK COOL FRONT SNEAK
THROUGH WITH PERHAPS A FEW MOUNTAIN RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT SUNDAY...OTHERWISE KEEPING THINGS
DRY. THIS ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER 85H TEMPS SUPPORTS HIGHS 50-55
FRIDAY...50S TO NEAR 60 PIEDMONT SATURDAY...AND OVERALL 50S ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1234 PM EST SUNDAY...
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD BECAUSE OF WINTER
STORM WITH SNOW MIXED WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIDGES. PILOTS SHOULD
WATCH FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.
VFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LOWER TO MVFR IN CLOUDS AND
SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WARM FRONT AND SNOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN AREAS BY 22Z...AND SHIFT EAST TONIGHT. LOOK
FOR VSBYS/CIGS TO DROP TO MVFR AND LOWER ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BY 06Z...WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS SPREADING EAST OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
WITH SOME GUSTS OVER BLF TO 20KTS AFTER 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT SNOW
SWITCHING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MONDAY WITH THIS MIX INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO REMAIN. SOME
RAIN IS EXPECTED AT LEAST DAN/BLF AS WARMER SURGE OF AIR RIDES IN
TUESDAY.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THIS STORM EXITS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IS FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A CLIPPER
SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION OF POOR FLYING CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY WITH VFR RETURNING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON HAS SETTLED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. ROANOKE...DANVILLE...AND BLUEFIELD SET RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING. SEE RECORD EVENT REPORT (RER) FOR
MORE DETAILS. SEVERAL CLIMATE SITES MAY BREAK RECORDS FOR LOW
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY. THE CURRENT RECORDS ARE LISTED BELOW.
SUNDAY 02/14/2016
SITE LOMAX YEAR
KBLF 16 1960
KDAN 32 1986
KLYH 24 1905
KROA 26 1986
KRNK 24 1986
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-
022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ001>006-
018>020.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507-
508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...KK/WP
CLIMATE...CF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
704 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
.UPDATE...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 704 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. RAP AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE MUCH FOR ICE ALOFT FROM 6Z THROUGH AROUND 14Z
SO SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.
ALSO...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS OVERNIGHT WE COULD SEE
SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ANY ICE ACCUMULATION WOULD BE VERY LIGHT
TONIGHT...PERHAPS A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
PRIMARY CONCERNS INVOLVE FOG AND SNOW CHANCES/AMOUNTS TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. 15.12Z MODEL SUITE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT AND
WILL FOLLOW A BLENDED SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH FOCUS FOR THE NEXT 6 TO
12 HOURS WILL BE ON THE LATEST RAP/HRRR OUTPUT.
15.20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A WEAK SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL MN AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN A COMPACT AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS
NOW MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MN. 15.20Z HRRR SHOWS THESE SHOWERS
MOVING EAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING AND THEN FALLING APART NEAR THE
MS RIVER. WITH SFC OBS UNDER THIS SNOW REPORTING VISIBILITY FROM 3
TO 5SM...A QUICK DUSTING IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.
BIGGER CONCERN THIS EVENING IS FOG POTENTIAL. WITH MOIST WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME OVER THE SNOWPACK AND RELATIVELY LIGHT NEAR
SURFACE FLOW...THINK THERE COULD BE A REPEAT FROM THIS MORNING
WITH RAPIDLY DEVELOPING FOG AFTER SUNSET. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE
IF THE LIMITED CLEARING AREA ACROSS CENTRAL MN CAN WORK ITS WAY
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND ALLOW FOR GREATER NOCTURNAL COOLING.
AREAS OF DENSE FOG A REAL POSSIBILITY...BUT TIMING/COVERAGE
UNCERTAIN AND SOMETHING TO WATCH THROUGHOUT THE EVENING FOR
POSSIBLE ADVISORY CONDITIONS. FOR NOW...WILL EXPAND PATCHY/AREAS
OF FOG FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG THAT
DOES DEVELOP IS NOT LIKELY TO DISSIPATE UNTIL SOMETIME TUESDAY
MORNING AT THE EARLIEST. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE WARM...
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S ABOVE ZERO.
15.12Z GLOBAL MODELS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT...SHOWING THE NEXT
SHORT-WAVE ALOFT FOR TONIGHT DIVING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BEST 500 TO 300 HPA POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS WAVE IS BETTER ALIGNED
ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY WHERE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE.
A SECONDARY WEAKER SHORT-WAVE/SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF REGION. HOWEVER...LIFT AND
MOISTURE ARE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS IN
PARTICULAR LACK ICE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WHEREAS THE GFS
SHOWS A DEEPER SATURATED LAYER. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE...BUT FOR NOW THINK THE NAM IS UNDER DOING
COLDER CLOUDS ALOFT AND WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION TYPE AS SNOW. IF
SNOW DOES DEVELOP WITHIN WEAK LIFT REGIME...ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR LESS REGION-WIDE.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL AGAIN HINGE ON CLOUD COVER...BUT SHOULD
RISE INTO THE LOWER 30S MOST AREAS PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS BROAD SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN. A SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR MASS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY/S COLD FRONT
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20S. HOWEVER...A MUCH DRIER
AIR MASS SHOULD LEND ITSELF TO SOME SUNSHINE FOR AT LEAST THE
LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION ENSUES
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY SO THAT BY 06Z FRIDAY...925 HPA TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM +3 TO +7 CELSIUS. ALTHOUGH DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER...
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. 15.12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THE GFS SURFACE
LOW TRACK IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. THE GFS IS ALSO MORE BULLISH ON
QPF MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE SYSTEM/S WARM SECTOR. STILL NEED
TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIXED FREEZING PRECIPITATION THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-94 THAT HAVE SUB-FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. DEGREE OF WARMTH ON FRIDAY A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN NOW
AS BOTH MODELS ALIGN THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ALONG THE MS RIVER BY
12Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OVERALL POST-FRONTAL THERMAL PROFILE
REMAINS WARM ENOUGH SO THAT PRECIPITATION FALLS AS RAIN. FOR
NOW...EXPECT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S WITH CONSENSUS 30 TO 60
POPS.
A DRY AND WARM SATURDAY GIVES WAY TO ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY AS A SHORT-WAVE DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA. TOO FAR OUT TO
PROVIDE MANY DETAILS...BUT PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE MAINLY
LIQUID. MONDAY DRIES OUT AND COOLS BACK DOWN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEPARTING WAVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 559 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG
TONIGHT AT THE TAF SITES. PLAN ON VISIBILITIES FALLING TO AROUND
1/2 MILE AT KRST BY 07Z AND TO AROUND 2 SM BY 10Z AT KLSE. THE LOW
STRATUS AND FOG LOOKS TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING.
ALSO...LIGHT SNOW OR POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD
MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES MAINLY AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. WINDS THEN
SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
559 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
PRIMARY CONCERNS INVOLVE FOG AND SNOW CHANCES/AMOUNTS TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. 15.12Z MODEL SUITE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT AND
WILL FOLLOW A BLENDED SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH FOCUS FOR THE NEXT 6 TO
12 HOURS WILL BE ON THE LATEST RAP/HRRR OUTPUT.
15.20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A WEAK SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL MN AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN A COMPACT AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS
NOW MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MN. 15.20Z HRRR SHOWS THESE SHOWERS
MOVING EAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING AND THEN FALLING APART NEAR THE
MS RIVER. WITH SFC OBS UNDER THIS SNOW REPORTING VISIBILITY FROM 3
TO 5SM...A QUICK DUSTING IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.
BIGGER CONCERN THIS EVENING IS FOG POTENTIAL. WITH MOIST WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME OVER THE SNOWPACK AND RELATIVELY LIGHT NEAR
SURFACE FLOW...THINK THERE COULD BE A REPEAT FROM THIS MORNING
WITH RAPIDLY DEVELOPING FOG AFTER SUNSET. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE
IF THE LIMITED CLEARING AREA ACROSS CENTRAL MN CAN WORK ITS WAY
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND ALLOW FOR GREATER NOCTURNAL COOLING.
AREAS OF DENSE FOG A REAL POSSIBILITY...BUT TIMING/COVERAGE
UNCERTAIN AND SOMETHING TO WATCH THROUGHOUT THE EVENING FOR
POSSIBLE ADVISORY CONDITIONS. FOR NOW...WILL EXPAND PATCHY/AREAS
OF FOG FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG THAT
DOES DEVELOP IS NOT LIKELY TO DISSIPATE UNTIL SOMETIME TUESDAY
MORNING AT THE EARLIEST. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE WARM...
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S ABOVE ZERO.
15.12Z GLOBAL MODELS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT...SHOWING THE NEXT
SHORT-WAVE ALOFT FOR TONIGHT DIVING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BEST 500 TO 300 HPA POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS WAVE IS BETTER ALIGNED
ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY WHERE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE.
A SECONDARY WEAKER SHORT-WAVE/SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF REGION. HOWEVER...LIFT AND
MOISTURE ARE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS IN
PARTICULAR LACK ICE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WHEREAS THE GFS
SHOWS A DEEPER SATURATED LAYER. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE...BUT FOR NOW THINK THE NAM IS UNDER DOING
COLDER CLOUDS ALOFT AND WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION TYPE AS SNOW. IF
SNOW DOES DEVELOP WITHIN WEAK LIFT REGIME...ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR LESS REGION-WIDE.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL AGAIN HINGE ON CLOUD COVER...BUT SHOULD
RISE INTO THE LOWER 30S MOST AREAS PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS BROAD SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN. A SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR MASS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY/S COLD FRONT
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20S. HOWEVER...A MUCH DRIER
AIR MASS SHOULD LEND ITSELF TO SOME SUNSHINE FOR AT LEAST THE
LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION ENSUES
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY SO THAT BY 06Z FRIDAY...925 HPA TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM +3 TO +7 CELSIUS. ALTHOUGH DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER...
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. 15.12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THE GFS SURFACE
LOW TRACK IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. THE GFS IS ALSO MORE BULLISH ON
QPF MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE SYSTEM/S WARM SECTOR. STILL NEED
TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIXED FREEZING PRECIPITATION THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-94 THAT HAVE SUB-FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. DEGREE OF WARMTH ON FRIDAY A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN NOW
AS BOTH MODELS ALIGN THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ALONG THE MS RIVER BY
12Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OVERALL POST-FRONTAL THERMAL PROFILE
REMAINS WARM ENOUGH SO THAT PRECIPITATION FALLS AS RAIN. FOR
NOW...EXPECT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S WITH CONSENSUS 30 TO 60
POPS.
A DRY AND WARM SATURDAY GIVES WAY TO ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY AS A SHORT-WAVE DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA. TOO FAR OUT TO
PROVIDE MANY DETAILS...BUT PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE MAINLY
LIQUID. MONDAY DRIES OUT AND COOLS BACK DOWN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEPARTING WAVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 559 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG
TONIGHT AT THE TAF SITES. PLAN ON VISIBILITIES FALLING TO AROUND
1/2 MILE AT KRST BY 07Z AND TO AROUND 2 SM BY 10Z AT KLSE. THE LOW
STRATUS AND FOG LOOKS TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING.
ALSO...LIGHT SNOW OR POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD
MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES MAINLY AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. WINDS THEN
SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
403 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED
BY A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATER THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY, BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE LATER FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY, PULLING A
WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN A COLD FRONT
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME SPECTACULAR TEMPERATURE CHANGES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY ENDS IN NEXT TIER OF ZONES AT 500 AM AND THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ENDS IN THE FAR NORTH AT 700 AM. LAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF HRRR ARE ADAMANT THAT AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION BY 600 AM, AND ON THEIR WAY TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WELL INTO THE 50S LATER TODAY.
THAT AGREES WELL WITH OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CURRENT FORECAST
FOLLOWS THAT SCENARIO.
PRECIPITATION IS EBBING FOR THE TIME BEING WITH JUST SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (IF ANYTHING) DURING MUCH OF THE EARLY TO MID MORNING
HOURS.
THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING A ROUND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG FORCING WILL BRING SOME
VERY STRONG WINDS INTO THE REGION JUST OFF THE SURFACE. THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THOSE WINDS, SO BE PREPARED
FOR SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS ALSO STILL POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE EXITING THE AREA VERY EARLY IN
THIS TIME PERIOD. DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER AND MODERATE WESTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. SUPERBLEND WAS USED FOR
THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND RESULTED IN ONLY MINOR
CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUIETER/DRIER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF THE AREA, AT LEAST FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. MORE PRECIPITATION COULD
RETURN FOR SOME OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT ALL THE RAIN
TUESDAY WILL BE WAY TO OUR NORTH, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA DURING THE DAY,
WHILE A SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. IT IS
POSSIBLE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES OF
OUR AREA, BUT MOST EVERYONE SHOULD REMAIN DRY. IF THE FRONT HOLDS
TOGETHER, IT WOULDN`T CROSS UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT, CENTERING ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY, THEN BEGINS TO
BUILD OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FRIDAY AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT, PULLING A WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT EARLY SATURDAY. THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A PASSING SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE TO CREATE SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPERATURES COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A WINTRY
MIX TO OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME
FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY FOLLOW DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA, BUT ANY
PRECIPITATION MAY ACTUALLY CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE DAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. BUT THIS MAY NOT LAST LONG. THERE IS INDICATION THAT
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD AFFECT THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF, WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING A LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND MOVING IT
ACROSS THE AREA. THE LATEST ECMWF THE LOW TO OUR WEST AND PASSES IT
NORTH OF THE AREA. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THIS DEVELOPING LOW, IT
IS POSSIBLE ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION COULD AFFECT THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ABE AND RDG IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
UNTIL AROUND 12Z. OTHERWISE GENERALLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TODAY.
PERIODS OF RAIN WHICH WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY STARTING LATE THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST WINDS MOSTLY 10-15 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY GUSTY,
TURNING SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED
FOR AWHILE AS A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET NEAR 65 KNOTS MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA.
TONIGHT...GENERALLY MVFR.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE NORTH
MAY AFFECT THE AREA AND RESULT IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY-GENERALLY VFR. SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY.GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS 20-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM SECTION OF THE
MARINE FORECAST. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE AS VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
TRACKING INLAND UP THE EAST COAST. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AROUND MIDDAY TODAY. EXPECTED TO BE A HIGH END GALE EVENT. A FEW
GUSTS TO STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE.
SUBSEQUENTLY, AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE WATERS LATE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT, THERE SHOULD AGAIN BE GALE FORCE GUSTS.
SEAS ON THE ATLC WATERS SHOULD RISE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 13 FT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS MAY
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS COULD GUST 20-25 KNOTS AS WELL.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...WINDS LIKELY TO INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS, WITH POSSIBLE NEAR GALE FORCE GUSTS FRIDAY
NIGHT SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THERE STILL REMAINS THE THREAT FOR SOME URBANIZED AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HEAVY RAIN.
WHERE STORM DRAINS ARE BLOCKED BY SNOW, ICE AND DEBRIS, POOR
DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. ONE TO ONE AND A HALF
INCHES OF RAINFALL, POSSIBLY UP TO TWO INCHES IN SOME AREAS,
FALLING ON TOP OF THE SNOW COULD MAKE FOR EFFICIENT RUNOFF AND
CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA. AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD MAY NOT GET AS
MUCH RAIN, ONLY A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SHARP RISES ON OUR LOCAL CREEKS, STEAMS, AND
RIVERS. HOWEVER, NONE OF THE FORECAST RIVER GAUGES ARE EXPECTED TO
GET TO FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY SHOULD PUSH
WATER UP CHESAPEAKE BAY AND UP DELAWARE BAY AND INTO THE TIDAL
DELAWARE RIVER. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTS THAT NO FLOODING WILL OCCUR.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ060>062-101-103-105.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-
055.
NJ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NJZ007>010.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR ANZ450>453.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ454-455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...SZATKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...SZATKOWSKI
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
333 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
.DISCUSSION...
...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR OSCEOLA...OKEECHOBEE...BREVARD...
INDIAN RIVER...ST LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES UNTIL 8 AM...
CURRENTLY-TODAY...CAPE WIND PROFILERS SHOW LOW LEVEL WINDS 30-40
KNOTS BUT THE FLOW HAS BEEN VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND LOOKING
MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH TIME. A BAND OF PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION HAS
BEEN MOVING EAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AROUND 30 KNOTS. AN AREA
OF CONVECTION THAT HAD FORMED OVER THE LOOP CURRENT WAS SPREADING
INLAND AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND. THE LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK
SHOWS A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN END WHERE
INFLOW OF MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR WAS BEING MAINTAINED. FOR THIS
REASON A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM OSCEOLA/BREVARD
SOUTHWARD TO OKEECHOBEE AND THE TREASURE COAST.
THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS A BAND HOLDING TOGETHER AND CROSSING OUR AREA
FROM ABOUT 3 TO 8 AM...EXCEPT POSSIBLY SLOWING AND LINGERING UNTIL
LATE MORNING ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.
ONCE THE PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION SHIFTS OFFSHORE...THE HRRR IR CLOUD
PRODUCT SHOWS IT CLEARING OUT RATHER QUICKLY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE SLOWING DOWN...SO THE AFTERNOON LOOKS WARM. SURFACE THETA E FIELD
SHOWS PASSAGE OF THE FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH
AROUND 80 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT MID-UPPER 70S IN
THE NORTH.
DRYING AND COOL AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL DROP TEMPS DOWN INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
WED-SUN...MOSTLY DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
BUT MODELS SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS BOUNDARY SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST
WITH RIDGE AXIS GRADUALLY BUILDING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
TO VEER ONSHORE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
IS INDICATED BY THE MODELS AND MAY SEE A FEW ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS
BY WEEKS END...BUT FOR NOW RAIN CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S MOST DAYS WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND
50S.
MON...FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND GULF COAST PUSHES THE
FLORIDA RIDGE SOUTH. SOUTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THEN
SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE LEVELS DO NOT INCREASE APPRECIABLY SO MODEL
POP MAY BE A BIT HIGH.
&&
.AVIATION... A PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR WILL OCCUR WITH A PRE FRONTAL BAND
OF SHOWERS/STORMS. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS THE BAND REACHING THE
INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR AROUND 09Z. GUIDANCE INDICATES CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME VFR QUICKLY BEHIND THE BAND...MOST LIKELY BEFORE MIDDAY
AT ALL THE TAF SITES.
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT... ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE
VOLUSIA COASTAL EARLY THIS MORNING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE
WILL OCCUR OVER THE OUTER WATERS EARLY. SOUTH WINDS WILL VEER TO
SOUTHWEST THEN BECOME WEST/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS BY
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL HOLD ONTO ADVISORY THROUGH 4 PM DUE TO SEAS
BEING SLOW TO SUBSIDE.
WED-SAT...A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY WITH
ELEVATED WESTERLY FLOW UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST TO
NORTH INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 6 TO 8 FEET
OFFSHORE/GULF STREAM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH DAY BREAK FRIDAY. SEAS
SUBSIDE TO 6 FEET AND LESS SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
SUN...ANOTHER WEAK FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 77 50 71 48 / 20 0 10 0
MCO 80 51 76 49 / 20 0 10 0
MLB 81 51 74 51 / 30 0 10 0
VRB 80 52 74 51 / 40 0 10 0
LEE 77 50 74 47 / 20 0 10 0
SFB 78 50 74 49 / 20 0 10 0
ORL 79 52 74 50 / 20 0 10 0
FPR 81 53 74 51 / 40 0 10 0
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INDIAN RIVER-
MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-OKEECHOBEE-OSCEOLA-SOUTHERN
BREVARD COUNTY-ST. LUCIE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SEBASTIAN
INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLAGLER
BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN
INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LASCODY
IMPACT WX....WEITLICH
LONG TERM....WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
318 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
Next system slated to impact central Illinois is evident on 08z/2am
water vapor imagery over eastern Nebraska. Much like the wave that
passed by the area yesterday, this particular feature is digging
further southward than models had predicted. With the 500mb vort
max now progged to track from its current position over eastern
Nebraska to northeast Arkansas by 18z, the associated band of light
precip has been displaced southward. In fact, the HRRR and Rapid
Refresh suggest it will only graze the far S/SE KILX CWA today. As
a result, have trimmed PoPs considerably...with locations
along/north of a Bloomington to Paris line remaining dry. Highest
precip chances will be focused south of I-70 where likely PoPs are
warranted. Forecast soundings indicate only shallow boundary layer
moisture with a complete lack of ice crystals: therefore, think any
precip that occurs will be in liquid form. With surface temps
initially in the 20s and lower 30s, some light freezing rain may
occur as the precip arrives this morning...primarily along and
southwest of a Galesburg to Taylorville line. Icing will be
minimal, as temps are expected to climb above freezing by mid to
late morning. Fog will also be an issue this morning, although with
increasing mid clouds associated with the approaching wave, do not
think widespread dense fog will develop. Will therefore not be
issuing a Dense Fog Advisory at this time. Instead, a Special
Weather Statement addressing the low visibilities has been issued.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
A weak secondary wave will track across the southern Great Lakes
tonight, potentially bringing some very light snow or flurries to
the northern KILX CWA. Once this feature passes, cool and dry
weather will be on tap for Wednesday with high temperatures in the
middle to upper 30s.
After that, the long-advertised warming trend will finally arrive by
the end of the week. A deep upper trough coming onshore across the
Pacific Northwest will induce pronounced ridging downstream over the
central and eastern CONUS, resulting in much warmer weather. As the
pressure gradient tightens between a departing high and an
approaching frontal boundary, strong southerly winds will develop on
Thursday and Friday. Winds will gust to around 30mph Thursday
afternoon, then to between 35 and 40mph on Friday as the front
arrives. Thanks to rising upper heights, strong southerly winds,
and the return of some sunshine, high temperatures will soar into
the 60s by Friday.
Once the weak cold front passes, a mild Pacific-origin airmass will
prevail through the weekend with highs in the 50s for both Saturday
and Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
Clear skies that occurred in the west have worked their way to the
east, but with sfc winds becoming more southeast as the high
pressure ridge pushes east of the area, satellite loops show some
of the lower clouds beginning to push back to west. This combined
with visibilities dropping to below 1sm in some area, making for a
tricky forecast overnight. PIA and BMI will remain mostly clear
with some scattered cirrus advecting over the sites overnight.
CMI, though scattering out some, will have lower clouds to advect
back over the site early. SPI and DEC already seeing lower clouds
and low vis coming back to the sites due to light easterly winds.
Believe these conditions will continue overnight at all sites
ahead of the next system coming tomorrow to bring some very light
pcpn to the southwestern half of the area. Believe this will
effect only SPI and DEC, but with models still trending south with
the system, going to have VCSH at these two sites, and have other
sites dry for the period. Cigs will drop into MVFR ranges for
other sites while SPI and DEC will be IFR until afternoon. Then
think MVFR cigs will come to SPI and DEC in the afternoon and
continue into evening...along with other sites. Winds will be
light and variable to light southeast overnight and then become
light and variable during the afternoon as the low pressure area
passes to the south. Then wind switch to westerly for the
evening.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
220 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
.UPDATE...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FREEZING FOG
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/LIGHT SNOW
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
DENSE FREEZING FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY:
THERE WILL BE NO DRY AIR ADVECTION DUE TO NON EXISTENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT/LIGHT WIND REGIME TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AXIS OF HIGHER 25+ DEGREE DEWPOINTS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. ALREADY SEEING SOME SITES IN CENTRAL
ILLINOIS DROP DOWN TO 1/2 MILE VISIBILITY. ANTICIPATE THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY FALL WHILE DEWPOINTS DO NOT BUDGE THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL SATURATION SHOULD THEN ENABLE AREAS
OF FREEZING FOG TO BLOSSOM. THERE ARE CONFLICTING SIGNALS ON THE
GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF DENSE FOG COVERAGE WITHIN THE CWA.
HOWEVER...LAV/LAMP AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR HAVE CONSISTENTLY FAVORED
INCREASING DENSE FOG COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. FEEL THAT PATTERN
RECOGNITION ALSO SUPPORTS THERE BEING AREAS OF DENSE FREEZING FOG
OVERNIGHT. ONLY CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST WAS TO ADD PATCHY
FREEZING FOG THIS EVENING AND ALSO MID TO LATE TUESDAY MORNING.
DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE YET TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
PLAN IS TO MONITOR TRENDS THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND PASS ON CONCERNS
TO EVENING SHIFT.
SNOW SHOWER/LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL TUES AFTERNOON-TUESDAY EVENING:
FAIRLY STRONG CLIPPER WILL MISS CWA TO THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY
MORNING. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD FROM HUDSON BAY. ELONGATED VORTICITY MAXIMA ALONG THE
TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 18Z GFS DO NOT SHOW
SUPERSATURATION OF SNOW GROWTH ZONE...BUT THIS WILL BE COMPENSATED
FOR BY DECENT LIFT FROM THE TROUGH/VORT MAX AND ALSO FAIRLY STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. 00Z NAM DID COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
CONSISTENT DEPICTION ON GLOBAL MODELS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD
TO THE CHANCE (UP TO 40%) RANGE FOR NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE CWA LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN MAINTAINED UP TO 40 POPS TUESDAY
EVENING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. COULD SEE NEEDING TO ADD LIKELY
POPS. TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE TROUGH...LACK OF SUPERSATURATION OF
THE DGZ...AND ONLY BRIEF PERIOD OF GOOD LIFT SUGGEST THAT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UP TO 1/2 INCH.
IN SUMMARY...MORNING COMMUTE MAY BE IMPACTED BY DENSE FOG AND
EVENING COMMUTE COULD HAVE MINOR IMPACTS FROM SNOW SHOWERS/LIGHT
SNOW. REST OF FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND UPDATED ZONES HAVE
BEEN SENT.
RC
&&
.SHORT TERM...
228 PM CST
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
PRIMARY SHORT TERM CONCERNS INCLUDE CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR
MORE FOG TONIGHT. STRATUS DECK HOLDING STRONG THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ONLY MINOR DIRUNAL IMPROVEMENT NOTED THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT
FLOW...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME VERY WEAK
MOIST ADVECTION TONIGHT...COMBINED WITH ADDED BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLING DUE TO FRESH SNOW PACK ALL POINT TO CIGS BULDING DOWNWARD
AFTER SUNSET AND LIKELY CULMINATING INTO A FOG EVENT OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO CONSIDER GOING
WITH ANY SORT OF FOG ADVISORY...BUT DID INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR
DENSE FREEZING FOG IN THE GRIDS AND WILL ADD TO HWO AS WELL.
FOG AND STRATUS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO BURN OFF AGAIN TUESDAY. HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE TEMPS DUE TO THE
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER. MAINTAINED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
EXTREME WEST AND SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA FOR THE CLIPPER
PASSING TO OUR WEST DURING THE DAY...BUT TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE
WOULD STRONGLY FAVOR PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINING WELL WEST
OF OUR CWA.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL TRYING TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT QPF TUESDAY
EVENING WITH SECONDARY WEAKER SHORTWAVE FOLLOWING QUICKLY ON THE
HEELS OF THE AFTERNOON CLIPPER...BUT TRACKING FARTHER EAST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE OR
SATURATED...SO REALLY NOT INCLINED TO GO GUNG-HO WITH POPS TUESDAY
EVENING BUT GIVEN MODEL CONSENSUS DID NUDGE THEM UP A BIT. IF
ANYTHING FALLS...ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL.
IZZI
&&
.LONG TERM...
228 PM CST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SHOULD START THE DAY WEDNESDAY SOCKED IN UNDER THE STRATUS
DECK...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE CLEAR OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ALWAYS PRETTY SKEPTICAL OF THIS SIGNAL IN THE MODELS SO TRIED TO
NUDGE SKY COVER UP A BIT IN THE GRIDS...BUT WOULDNT BE SHOCKED TO
SEE CLEARING BE EVEN SLOWER THAN WHAT I HAVE DEPICTED.
TRANSITION AWAY FROM OUR RECENT WEEK LONG SPELL OF TYPICAL
CHICAGO WINTER WEATHER SHOULD COMMENCE THURSDAY. TEMPS ON THURSDAY
ARE TRICKY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE QUICKLY RAMPING UP...BUT
AM CONCERNED THAT MUCH OF THE WARMING WILL BE CONFINED TO ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH OUR A GOOD DEAL OF THE WARMING WASTED ON
MELTING OUR SNOW COVER. THE LIQUID CONTENT OF THE SNOW IS FAIRLY
LOW AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. SUSPECT HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE
REACHED THURSDAY EVENNG AFTER DARK AND CONTINUED STRONG WINDS WILL
ADVECT IN DEWPOINTS OF 40F+ WHICH SHOULD MAKE SHORT ORDER OF ANY
LINGERING SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY HAS BEEN TRENDING QUICKER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY RISE THROUGH THE 40S AND COULD BE PUCHING 50 FRIDAY
MORNING...THE EARLY ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY MAY END UP
NIPPING THE CHANCES OF 60F IN THE BUD. NONE-THE-LESS WITH ONLY
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AND SUCH A WARM START TO
THE DAY...HIGHS FRIDAY STILL LOOK SOLIDLY IN THE 50S. VERY STRONG
SOUTH BECOMING WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD DAMPER HOW MILD IT FEELS JUST
A BIT THOUGH. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PROBABLY INTO THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS WELL. GIVEN THE FAIRLY FAST FLOW...LITTLE TIME SHOULD
EXIST FOR APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN SO CHANCES OF SEEING MUCH
PRECIP WITH FRONT FRIDAY OR OVER THE WEEKEND LOOKS PRETTY LOW.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT CONTINUES TO BE ON POSSIBLE FOG WITH
IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBY AFTER 9Z THROUGH DAYBREAK. IR IMAGERY THIS
EVENING SHOWS A NARROW CHANNEL OF CLEAR SKIES THAT HAS PUSHED INTO
FAR WESTERN IL...MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST OF THIS AND CLOSER TO THE
ORD/MDW A STRATUS LAYER REMAINS. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW POCKETS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SNOW THAT HAS BEEN FALLING UNDER THE
STRATUS LAYER...HOWEVER THAT HAS BEEN STEADILY TRENDING DOWN.
EXPECT TAFS TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE FOCUS
REMAINING ON THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOW CIGS.
WHERE THE SKIES HAVE CLEARED TEMPS HAVE BEEN QUICK TO
DROP...ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND VSBYS DOWN TO LESS
THAN 1 MILE IN A FEW AREAS. GUIDANCE HAS HAD SOME CONSISTENCY WITH
FOG MOVING EAST OVERNIGHT AND IMPACTING RFD/DPA AFT 9Z...HOWEVER
FURTHER EAST OF THIS AND CLOSER TO ORD/MDW GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
STRUGGLING. HAVE OPTED TO TREND A LITTLE HIGHER WITH CIGS/VSBYS
HAS IT APPEARS THE STRATUS MAY LINGER LONGER DUE TO THE LACK OF
WIND IN THE LOW LEVELS. MANY SURFACE DATA SITES ARE SHOWING WINDS
HAVE BECOME CALM TO VRB AT 3KT...AND IT APPEARS THIS WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT.
AROUND DAYBREAK GUIDANCE IS THEN INDICATING THAT ANOTHER SLUG OF
LOWER CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FOG MAY ARRIVE OVER NORTHERN
IL/NORTHWEST IN AIRFIELDS...AND COULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING HOURS. HAVE BEEN SLOW TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN THE CURRENT
TAF...AND IT IS POSSIBLE LOW CIGS/STRATUS OR IFR CONDS WILL
LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUE. WINDS WILL BE SLOWLY TURNING
SOUTHWEST THEN WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVING THEY WILL TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST LATE TUE AFTN.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
219 AM CST
RELATIVELY LIGHTER WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LIKELY PERSIST THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY.
HOWEVER...DIRECTION WILL BEGIN TO FAVOR A WEST NORTHWEST WIND
LATER THIS MORNING AND ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION.
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT OVER THE OPEN WATERS...AND
WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30KT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH
HALF. THE GRADIENT DOES RELAX ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. LATER THIS WEEK...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE ORGANIZED
OUT OF THE SOUTH WEDNESAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM
TAKES SHAPE AND THEN BEGINS APPROACHING THE REGION...SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30KT THURSDAY AND THEN WITH GALES BECOMING
LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT. THESE HIGHER SPEEDS COULD PERSIST ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY BUT WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME...DO BRING SPEEDS BACK DOWN TO THE 30 KT RANGE DURING THAT
TIME.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1053 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
.UPDATE...905 PM CST
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FREEZING FOG
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/LIGHT SNOW
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
DENSE FREEZING FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY:
THERE WILL BE NO DRY AIR ADVECTION DUE TO NON EXISTENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT/LIGHT WIND REGIME TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AXIS OF HIGHER 25+ DEGREE DEWPOINTS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. ALREADY SEEING SOME SITES IN CENTRAL
ILLINOIS DROP DOWN TO 1/2 MILE VISIBILITY. ANTICIPATE THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY FALL WHILE DEWPOINTS DO NOT BUDGE THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL SATURATION SHOULD THEN ENABLE AREAS
OF FREEZING FOG TO BLOSSOM. THERE ARE CONFLICTING SIGNALS ON THE
GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF DENSE FOG COVERAGE WITHIN THE CWA.
HOWEVER...LAV/LAMP AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR HAVE CONSISTENTLY FAVORED
INCREASING DENSE FOG COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. FEEL THAT PATTERN
RECOGNITION ALSO SUPPORTS THERE BEING AREAS OF DENSE FREEZING FOG
OVERNIGHT. ONLY CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST WAS TO ADD PATCHY
FREEZING FOG THIS EVENING AND ALSO MID TO LATE TUESDAY MORNING.
DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE YET TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
PLAN IS TO MONITOR TRENDS THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND PASS ON CONCERNS
TO EVENING SHIFT.
SNOW SHOWER/LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL TUES AFTERNOON-TUESDAY EVENING:
FAIRLY STRONG CLIPPER WILL MISS CWA TO THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY
MORNING. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD FROM HUDSON BAY. ELONGATED VORTICITY MAXIMA ALONG THE
TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 18Z GFS DO NOT SHOW
SUPERSATURATION OF SNOW GROWTH ZONE...BUT THIS WILL BE COMPENSATED
FOR BY DECENT LIFT FROM THE TROUGH/VORT MAX AND ALSO FAIRLY STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. 00Z NAM DID COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
CONSISTENT DEPICTION ON GLOBAL MODELS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD
TO THE CHANCE (UP TO 40%) RANGE FOR NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE CWA LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN MAINTAINED UP TO 40 POPS TUESDAY
EVENING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. COULD SEE NEEDING TO ADD LIKELY
POPS. TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE TROUGH...LACK OF SUPERSATURATION OF
THE DGZ...AND ONLY BRIEF PERIOD OF GOOD LIFT SUGGEST THAT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UP TO 1/2 INCH.
IN SUMMARY...MORNING COMMUTE MAY BE IMPACTED BY DENSE FOG AND
EVENING COMMUTE COULD HAVE MINOR IMPACTS FROM SNOW SHOWERS/LIGHT
SNOW. REST OF FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND UPDATED ZONES HAVE
BEEN SENT.
RC
&&
.SHORT TERM...
228 PM CST
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
PRIMARY SHORT TERM CONCERNS INCLUDE CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR
MORE FOG TONIGHT. STRATUS DECK HOLDING STRONG THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ONLY MINOR DIRUNAL IMPROVEMENT NOTED THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT
FLOW...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME VERY WEAK
MOIST ADVECTION TONIGHT...COMBINED WITH ADDED BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLING DUE TO FRESH SNOW PACK ALL POINT TO CIGS BULDING DOWNWARD
AFTER SUNSET AND LIKELY CULMINATING INTO A FOG EVENT OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO CONSIDER GOING
WITH ANY SORT OF FOG ADVISORY...BUT DID INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR
DENSE FREEZING FOG IN THE GRIDS AND WILL ADD TO HWO AS WELL.
FOG AND STRATUS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO BURN OFF AGAIN TUESDAY. HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE TEMPS DUE TO THE
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER. MAINTAINED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
EXTREME WEST AND SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA FOR THE CLIPPER
PASSING TO OUR WEST DURING THE DAY...BUT TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE
WOULD STRONGLY FAVOR PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINING WELL WEST
OF OUR CWA.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL TRYING TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT QPF TUESDAY
EVENING WITH SECONDARY WEAKER SHORTWAVE FOLLOWING QUICKLY ON THE
HEELS OF THE AFTERNOON CLIPPER...BUT TRACKING FARTHER EAST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE OR
SATURATED...SO REALLY NOT INCLINED TO GO GUNG-HO WITH POPS TUESDAY
EVENING BUT GIVEN MODEL CONSENSUS DID NUDGE THEM UP A BIT. IF
ANYTHING FALLS...ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL.
IZZI
&&
.LONG TERM...
228 PM CST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SHOULD START THE DAY WEDNESDAY SOCKED IN UNDER THE STRATUS
DECK...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE CLEAR OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ALWAYS PRETTY SKEPTICAL OF THIS SIGNAL IN THE MODELS SO TRIED TO
NUDGE SKY COVER UP A BIT IN THE GRIDS...BUT WOULDNT BE SHOCKED TO
SEE CLEARING BE EVEN SLOWER THAN WHAT I HAVE DEPICTED.
TRANSITION AWAY FROM OUR RECENT WEEK LONG SPELL OF TYPICAL
CHICAGO WINTER WEATHER SHOULD COMMENCE THURSDAY. TEMPS ON THURSDAY
ARE TRICKY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE QUICKLY RAMPING UP...BUT
AM CONCERNED THAT MUCH OF THE WARMING WILL BE CONFINED TO ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH OUR A GOOD DEAL OF THE WARMING WASTED ON
MELTING OUR SNOW COVER. THE LIQUID CONTENT OF THE SNOW IS FAIRLY
LOW AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. SUSPECT HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE
REACHED THURSDAY EVENNG AFTER DARK AND CONTINUED STRONG WINDS WILL
ADVECT IN DEWPOINTS OF 40F+ WHICH SHOULD MAKE SHORT ORDER OF ANY
LINGERING SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY HAS BEEN TRENDING QUICKER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY RISE THROUGH THE 40S AND COULD BE PUCHING 50 FRIDAY
MORNING...THE EARLY ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY MAY END UP
NIPPING THE CHANCES OF 60F IN THE BUD. NONE-THE-LESS WITH ONLY
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AND SUCH A WARM START TO
THE DAY...HIGHS FRIDAY STILL LOOK SOLIDLY IN THE 50S. VERY STRONG
SOUTH BECOMING WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD DAMPER HOW MILD IT FEELS JUST
A BIT THOUGH. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PROBABLY INTO THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS WELL. GIVEN THE FAIRLY FAST FLOW...LITTLE TIME SHOULD
EXIST FOR APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN SO CHANCES OF SEEING MUCH
PRECIP WITH FRONT FRIDAY OR OVER THE WEEKEND LOOKS PRETTY LOW.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT CONTINUES TO BE ON POSSIBLE FOG WITH
IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBY AFTER 9Z THROUGH DAYBREAK. IR IMAGERY THIS
EVENING SHOWS A NARROW CHANNEL OF CLEAR SKIES THAT HAS PUSHED INTO
FAR WESTERN IL...MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST OF THIS AND CLOSER TO THE
ORD/MDW A STRATUS LAYER REMAINS. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW POCKETS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SNOW THAT HAS BEEN FALLING UNDER THE
STRATUS LAYER...HOWEVER THAT HAS BEEN STEADILY TRENDING DOWN.
EXPECT TAFS TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE FOCUS
REMAINING ON THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOW CIGS.
WHERE THE SKIES HAVE CLEARED TEMPS HAVE BEEN QUICK TO
DROP...ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND VSBYS DOWN TO LESS
THAN 1 MILE IN A FEW AREAS. GUIDANCE HAS HAD SOME CONSISTENCY WITH
FOG MOVING EAST OVERNIGHT AND IMPACTING RFD/DPA AFT 9Z...HOWEVER
FURTHER EAST OF THIS AND CLOSER TO ORD/MDW GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
STRUGGLING. HAVE OPTED TO TREND A LITTLE HIGHER WITH CIGS/VSBYS
HAS IT APPEARS THE STRATUS MAY LINGER LONGER DUE TO THE LACK OF
WIND IN THE LOW LEVELS. MANY SURFACE DATA SITES ARE SHOWING WINDS
HAVE BECOME CALM TO VRB AT 3KT...AND IT APPEARS THIS WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT.
AROUND DAYBREAK GUIDANCE IS THEN INDICATING THAT ANOTHER SLUG OF
LOWER CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FOG MAY ARRIVE OVER NORTHERN
IL/NORTHWEST IN AIRFIELDS...AND COULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING HOURS. HAVE BEEN SLOW TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN THE CURRENT
TAF...AND IT IS POSSIBLE LOW CIGS/STRATUS OR IFR CONDS WILL
LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUE. WINDS WILL BE SLOWLY TURNING
SOUTHWEST THEN WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVING THEY WILL TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST LATE TUE AFTN.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
228 PM CST
DID NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES...BUT A GALE WATCH WILL BE NEEDED FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE SOUTH HALF AND
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE NORTH HALF. A GALE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR THE NSH WATERS FRIDAY AS WELL.
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT. FOG CONTINUES IN THE NSH WATERS...AND FREEZING FOG IS
EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS INCREASE
TO 30 KT TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
WINDS DIMINISH UNDER THE HIGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND
THEN BECOME SOUTH BEHIND THE HIGH THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS INCREASE
TO 30 KT THROUGHOUT THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY GALES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE
LAKES FRIDAY LEADING TO A POSSIBLE SHORT BREAK IN THE GALES.
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW FAR NORTH THE LOW WILL PASS...AND A MORE
NORTHERLY PATH COULD RESULT IN GALES ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...WENT WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY PATH IN THE FORECAST SO ONLY
HAVE GALES CONTINUING FRIDAY ACROSS THE NSH WATERS AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE. WEST WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1144 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
...Updated aviation discussion...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
Radar trends showing that there are some showers across C Kansas
in association with a passing shortwave trough. Threw in some 20
pops in the NE zones as this activity could measure a couple of
hundredths. The HRRR is picking up on this activity as well.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
A shortwave trough embedded in northwest flow will drag a weak
cold front through western Kansas later tonight. West winds at 10
kts ahead of the front and 15 kt northwest winds behind the front
after 09 UTC will prevent temperatures from falling a lot.
Lows should be in the mid to upper 30s in far western Kansas, with
some lower 40s in south central Kansas. Weak surface high pressure
is expected to settle across western Kansas on Tuesday. With
mostly sunny skies, temperatures ought to reach into the 50s, with
perhaps some lower 60s in far southwestern Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
A surface trough will develop in the lee of the Rockies by
Wednesday as the mid level flow increases across the Rockies in
advance of a shortwave trough. Temperatures should warm well into the 60s,
with some lower 70s possible at Liberal and Elkhart. On Thursday, as
the strong shortwave trough approaches, downslope southwest winds will
develop, allowing temperatures to rise into the lower to middle 80s.
Winds will be from the southwest at 20-25 mph, and with relative humidity
as low as 10 percent, fire danger will be high. A cold front will pass
through western Kansas by Thursday night, with highs falling back into
the 60s for Friday, before rebounding back into the upper 60s to
near 70 degrees by Saturday. Another cold front will pass across
western Kansas by Saturday night as an upper level trough moves
southeastward into the upper Midwest. Therefore, highs may drop
back into the 50s to lower 60s for Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Tuesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
Scattered light showers, mostly just sprinkles, will impact the Hays
terminal for a few hours at the beginning of the period. Ceilings and
visibilities will be VFR at all the terminals. A weak cold front will
push through western and central Kansas early this morning. Winds will
become gusty behind the front and should continue through midday before
becoming light and variable during the afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 39 59 33 68 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 37 60 32 69 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 37 63 32 72 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 38 61 33 72 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 37 56 33 63 / 20 0 0 0
P28 42 59 34 70 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Sugden
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Gerard
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
414 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SOME UPR TROFFING
CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY DOMINATING CENTRAL AND ERN NAMERICA. THERE
IS AN APRCHG SHRTWV OVER NRN MN THAT IS EMBEDDED IN THE WNW FLOW
ALF. AXIS OF MODEST DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
CAUSING 12HR H5 HGT FALLS UNDER 30M AS WELL AS SOME MODEST MSTR
SHOWN ON THE WV IMAGERY/HINTED AT BY THE 00Z MPX RAOB IS RESULTING
IN SOME SCT SN SHOWERS OVER THE W AND CENTRAL CWA EARLY THIS MRNG
WELL TO THE E OF ACCOMPANYING SFC LO PRES TROF MOVING THRU NE MN.
SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVRN NEAR H85 DEPICTED ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB IS
KEEPING THE FAR ERN CWA DRY...BUT THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF LO CLD
TRAPPED BENEATH THIS INVRN. H85 TEMPS RIGHT ALONG THIS LO PRES TROF
ARE NOT THAT COLD...AS 00Z H85 TEMP AT INL WAS ONLY -7C. FARTHER TO
THE NNW...THE 00Z H85 TEMPS WERE -13C AT YPL AND -16C AT THE PAS
MANITOBA.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS TODAY ASSOCIATED
WITH APRCHG SHRTWV/LO PRES TROF AND THEN ON LES COVERAGE/INTENSITY
TNGT AS COLDER AIR FOLLOWS IN THE NNW FLOW BEHIND THE TROF PASSAGE.
TODAY...AS SHRTWV/AXIS OF ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR FORCING AND DEEPER
MSTR MOVE E TODAY...EXPECT THE SCT SN SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE CWA THIS MORNING. BUT ALL THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HINTS THE
MARGINAL FORCING/MSTR WL RESTRICT PCPN TOTALS WITH NO MORE THAN
ABOUT AN INCH OF SN AT ANY ONE SPOT. BUT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN TO
THE NW CWA LATER IN THE DAY...LOWERING H85 TEMPS DOWN TO ABOUT -15C/-
16C OVER THE KEWEENAW BY 00Z WED...SOME MORE NMRS/HEAVER LK EFFECT
SN SHOWERS MAY DVLP IN THAT AREA. SINCE SGNFTLY COLDER AIR WL NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL LATER...GOING FCST HI TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S SEEMS ON
TRACK.
TNGT...LLVL NNW FLOW AHEAD OF APRCHG CNDN HI PRES THAT IS FCST TO
REACH NEAR THUNDER BAY ONTARIO BY DAYBREAK WED WL DRIVE H85 TEMPS AS
LO AS -18C TO -20C OVER THE E HALF LK SUP AT 12Z. THIS INFLUX OF
COLD AIR WL SUPPORT LES IN THE FAVORED SN BELTS IN GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON
COUNTIES AND FM MARQUETTE TO THE E. WHILE FCST SHARPER LLVL SFC
CNVGC IN THESE AREAS AS WELL AS FAVORABLE LOCATION OF THE DGZ/LLVL
UVV MAX WITHIN THE MOIST LYR ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME HEAVIER LES...
ARRIVAL OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/MID LVL DRYING THAT ARE FCST TO
LOWER THE INVRN BASE TO 3-4K FT AGL/MORE ACYC H925 FLOW BY 12Z WED
WL ACT TO LIMIT LES INTENSITY. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY BLSN NEAR
LK SUP MAINLY IN THE EVNG WHEN H925 WINDS ARE FCST UP TO 25 KTS
DURING PERIOD OF SHAPER LLVL CAA THAT WL ENHANCE MIXING OF THIS
MOMENTUM TO THE SFC. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF
FLUFFY SN IN THE FAVORED SN BELTS...OVERALL LARGER SCALE NEGATIVES
AND MARGINAL WINDS/BLSN POTENTIAL INDICATE THIS LES EVENT WL NOT
REQUIRE A HEADLINE. MIN TEMPS TNGT WL FALL TO 5-10F OVER THE
INTERIOR W HALF BUT SHOULD HOLD NO LOWER THAN THE MID TEENS IN THE
FAVORED SN BELTS E OF MARQUETTE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
...WINTRY MIX THU NIGHT INTO FRI...
STRONG JET DIGGING INTO CNTRL CONUS RESULTS IN UPPER TROUGHING AND
COLD AIR ACROSS GREAT LAKES ON WED. THEN...ENERGETIC PACIFIC JET OF
175-200KT AT H25...FORCES TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN PACIFIC OVER
WESTERN CONUS THU WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING SPREADING OVER GOOD
PORTION OF CONUS...INCLUDING GREAT LAKES. WESTERN TROUGH HEADS
TOWARD GREAT LAKES ON FRI ALONG WITH DEEPENING SFC LOW AND WARM
FRONT. MODELS ARE GOING BACK AND FORTH ON HOW FAR NORTH PRIMARY SFC
LOW TRACKS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT WHICH AFFECTS HOW QUICKLY
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MIXED PRECIP ISSUES ARRIVE OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. IN WAKE OF THE SFC LOW...COOLER AIR MOVES BACK OVER
UPPER GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEKEND...BUT EXTENT OF COOLING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. SWIFT WNW FLOW ALOFT COULD BRING ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
AND SNOW CHANCES...MAINLY LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
STARTING OFF ON WED...TROUGHING AND COLD AIR WILL BE TEMPORARILY IN
PLACE. LOOKING AT H85 TEMPS -18C TO -20C...LOWEST OVER EASTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN ONTARIO...BUT MODERATION OCCURS FAIRLY QUICKLY
BY WED EVENING WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. TROUGH AXIS STAYING
NORTHEAST OF UPPER GREAT LAKES LEADS TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
TAKING CHARGE BY WED MORNING WITH STRONG H7-H5 Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE
AND DRYING ABOVE H85. SFC HIGH OVER 1025MB SLIDING IN FM MANITOBA
AND NORTHERN ONTARIO BRINGS ANTICYCLONIC SFC FLOW ACROSS LK SUPERIOR
THOUGH NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW MAY HANG AROUND FOR MORNING
HOURS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR AND DOWNSTREAM NCNTRL AND EASTERN CWA.
AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...THE INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL TO LESS THAN 4KFT
OVER LK SUPERIOR. LAKE EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS SIMILAR OVER WEST BUT ARE
MORE AROUND 6KFT OVER SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR DUE TO INCREASED FETCH WITH
NNW TO N BLYR FLOW. DEEPER LAKE CONVECTIVE LAYER...BLYR WINDS 15-20
KTS HELPING ORGANIZATION...AND FAVORABLE DGZ MAY OFFSET THE NEGATIVE
LARGE SCALE FACTORS TO HELP FLUFF UP A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ON WED
MORNING. EXPECTED BLYR FLOW FAVORS SNOW BELTS OVER EASTERN MARQUETTE
COUNTY INTO ALGER COUNTY AND MAYBE EVEN INTO DELTA AND SCHOOLCRAFT
COUNTIES FOR PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS AND ACCUMS. SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING WITH THE HIGH EVENTUALLY WILL PUT CRIMP ON LES LATE WED
MORNING INTO WED AFTN...THOUGH ONSHORE FLOW AND ENOUGH MOISTURE IN
LOW-LEVELS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OVER PARTS OF CNTRL CWA
UNTIL LATE AFTN. AWAY FM LAKE EFFECT...SCT STRATOCU MAY EXPAND WITH
HEATING OF THE DAY...BUT WOULD ONLY BE FLURRIES INLAND DUE TO VERY
LOW INVERSIONS AND NO SUPPORT IN LARGER SCALE. TEMPS IN THE TEENS
MOST AREAS...BUT THAT IS AS COLD AS MAX TEMPS WILL BE THE REST OF
THE WEEK.
SFC RIDGE CENTERS OVER EAST HALF OF CWA WED EVENING THEN DRIFTS TO
LOWER GREAT LAKES BY THU MORNING. BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING AND LIGHT
WINDS WITH THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER EAST HALF IN THE EVENING. RISK OF
LOW CLOUDS STAYING TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION OVER WEST HALF. NAM IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE ON THAT IDEA AND SOMETIMES HAS BIAS TO SO SUCH A
SCENARIO. IN ANY CASE...RETURN FLOW AND/OR CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
FM TANKING WEST...BUT THAT MIGHT NOT BE THE CASE OVER THE EAST. WILL
KEEP FAVORING COLDER GUIDANCE THERE.
RIDGE HEADS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC ON THU WHILE BROAD
AND RATHER COMPLEX AREA OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA ACROSS THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUNDINGS INDICATE MID-HIGH CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY
BUT LOW-LEVELS STAY DRY. EXCEPTION IS OVER INTERIOR WEST HALF WHERE
UPSLOPE SSE WINDS BTWN THE DEPARTING RIDGE AND APPROACHING LOW MAY
HELP DEVELOP LOW CLOUDS/FLURRIES/FZDZ. WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ALOFT
RAMPS UP THU NIGHT INTO FRI. SCENARIO NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR CUT
THOUGH DUE TO DRYING ALOFT THAT IS SHOWN BY ECMWF...WHICH IS WPC
FAVORED MODEL ATTM WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ALSO HAS BEEN MOST
CONSISTENT WITH TRACK OF SFC LOW. WOULD SEE SOME SORT OF SNOW TO
DZ/FZDZ TRANSITION IF DRYING ALOFT OCCURRED AND EVEN THE DZ/FZDZ
RISK LATER THU NIGHT COULD BE AN IFFY PROPOSITION DUE TO LOW-LEVEL
DRYING IN DRY SLOT OF APPROACHING SFC LOW. AREA OF CNTRL UPR
MICHIGAN WITH SSE WINDS PROVIDING UPSLOPE AND MOISTURE OFF LK
MICHIGAN MAY BE THE EXCEPTION. FOR NOW...SHOWED HIGHER/LIKELY POPS
THU EVENING THEN TAPERED TO CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. THOUGH PTYPE
WOULD BE MORE DZ/FZDZ KEPT WITH RAIN/FZRA. DID NOT WANT TO GET TOO
SPECIFIC AS TIMING OUT A DRY SLOT AND ITS AFFECT ON PTYPE IS KIND OF
RISKY 3 DAYS OUT. CONCERNED THAT COLD SFC TEMPS AND ROAD TEMPS MAY
RESULT IN FZRA/ICING AT LEAST ON UNTREATED ROADS LATE THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING EVEN IF AIR TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. WILL BE
SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND ON LATER SHIFTS.
DEEP MOISTURE WOULD THEN FILL BACK IN ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH ARRIVAL
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH/FAVORABLE DYNAMICS. BY TIME THE DEEPER MOISTURE
RETURNS ON FRI...PTYPE WOULD BE LIQUID WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING
DEEP/MOIST WELL ABOVE FREEZING LAYER THROUGH 5KFT/H8. DID KEEP
MENTION OF FZRA 12Z-15Z WHERE TEMPS WERE 35 DEGREES OR LOWER.
EVENTUALLY COLDER AIR WORKS IN BUT IT IS NOT AS EMPHATIC AS IT
LOOKED LIKE A COUPLE NIGHTS AGO. THUS...PTYPE FRI NIGHT AND/OR SAT
COULD STILL HAVE SOME RAIN/SNOW. DOES BECOME SUFFICIENTLY COLD
ENOUGH SAT NIGHT INTO SUN FOR JUST SNOW. 00Z MODELS SHOW SHORTWAVE
CROSSING SO HAVE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ON SUN
WITH SMALL CHANCE OF LES SUN NIGHT INTO MON BEHIND THAT SYSTEM.
TWEAKED TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FM CONSENSUS FOR MON AS 00Z ECMWF/GFS
TRENDED COLDER THAN 12Z/15 SOLNS. ECMWF SHOWS -20C H85 TEMPS
RETURNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
FCST FOR TONIGHT WILL BE CHALLENGING AS LARGER SCALE
SUBSIDENCE/LOWERING INVERSION IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING
MAY BRING ABOUT IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. EXPECT CIGS
TO LOWER TO IFR DEVELOPING LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING AT
KIWD/KCMX...PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO SOME -SN SPREADING INTO THE AREA.
KSAW MAY SEE A PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW TUE AFTERNOON AS
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA LATE TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE
EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
EXPECT LIGHT WSW WINDS THIS MORNING TO SHIFT TO THE NNW DURING THE
DAY FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WED UNDER A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
AHEAD OF HI PRES BUILDING INTO FAR NW ONTARIO ON WED MORNING. THERE
MAY BE POCKETS OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE NCENTRAL
LAKE TONIGHT WITH THE INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
UNDER 20KT WED AS HI PRES ARRIVES OVER THE UPPER LAKES. STRONGER SSE
WINDS UP TO 30KT WILL THEN DEVELOP ON THU UNDER A TIGHTENING PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HI AND ANOTHER APPROACHING LO PRES.
OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE...S GALES TO 35 KTS ARE LIKELY AT LEAST
PART OF THE TIME ON THU AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE LO WILL PASS OVER
OR JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR FRI. STRONG W TO NW WINDS UP TO 30KT WILL
THEN FOLLOW INTO FRI NIGHT AND SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1222 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE ALONG THE W COAST
OF THE CONUS/CANADA AND A DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER CNTRL/ERN N AMERICA
WITH AXIS GENERALLY FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO THE LWR MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. SHORTWAVE TROF THAT BROUGHT SOME -SN TO THE AREA LAST
NIGHT/THIS MORNING HAS SHIFTED E OF THE AREA. KGRB RADAR AND SFC
OBS/WEBCAMS SHOWED A BAND OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW ALONG SFC TROF THAT
MOVED OUT ACROSS LAKE MI LATE LAST NIGHT/THIS MORNING. AT LEAST AT
LOCATIONS WITH WEBCAMS...IT DID NOT APPEAR THAT THERE WAS MORE THAN
2-3 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT...BUT THERE CERTAINLY
COULD HAVE BEEN SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. SOME -SN STILL LINGERS
IN THE VCNTY OF THE WEAKENING TROF WHICH IS NOW INTO LUCE COUNTY. TO
THE W...THERE HAVE BEEN SCT FLURRIES...BUT LATEST KMQT RADAR
SUGGESTS THE FLURRIES HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED. UPSTREAM...NEXT
SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST IS IN NRN MANITOBA/NRN SASKATCHEWAN.
A GENERALLY QUIET EVENING IS EXPECTED. LINGERING -SN OVER THE FAR E
WILL END THIS EVENING AS SFC TROF DRIFTS E AND WINDS BECOME WSW
ACROSS NRN LAKE MI. THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES ELSEWHERE...
ESPECIALLY IF SMALL AREA OF -SHSN/FLURRIES OVER NE MN HOLDS
TOGETHER. OVERNIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE IN MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN DROPS
SE...THERE IS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE DEPTH AND DEEP LAYER FORCING
PER QVECTORS INTO THE WRN FCST AREA. WITH MOST MODELS GENERATING
SOME PCPN...GRADUALLY INCREASED POPS THRU THE CHC CATEGORY OVER THE
W OVERNIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...WHILE CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE
BOARD TONIGHT AND HOLD TEMPS UP...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT CLOUDS
COULD BREAK FOR A TIME OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA
WHERE LIGHT DOWNSLOPING OCCURS. THE BIAS CORRECTED REGIONAL AND
GLOBAL CANADIAN MODELS WHICH ARE OFTEN SUPERIOR PERFORMERS WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING INDICATE MIN TEMPS DOWN INTO THE LWR SINGLE
DIGITS FROM PARTS OF MENOMINEE COUNTY EASTWARD...WITH SOME TEMPS SUB
ZERO TEMPS IN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY. FOR NOW...LOWERED TEMPS SLIGHTLY
DOWN TOWARD 10F OVER PORTIONS OF THE ERN FCST AREA.
ON TUE...AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE SWINGS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REACHING THE KEWEENAW LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN AND EXITING THE SE FCST AREA LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. BAND OF
DEEP LAYER FORCING/DEEP MOISTURE WHICH BEGINS TO ARRIVE OVER THE W
LATE TONIGHT SHIFTS ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON TUE. AS A RESULT...MOST
AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME -SN AT SOME POINT TUE. UTILIZED CHC POPS.
EXPECT A BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW TO ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT AS IT DROPS
SSE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO UPPER MI AS 850MB TEMPS ARE JUST
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCEMENT. AS A RESULT...INCLUDED A
SHORT PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND INTO WRN/NRN
UPPER MI WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES NEAR THE LAKE.
ELSEWHERE...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE UNDER 1 INCH. PATCHY BLSN
SHOULD DEVELOP CLOSE TO THE LAKE FROM THE KEWEENAW EASTWARD AFTER
FROPA. WITH AN OPPORTUNITY TO WARM UP PRIOR TO FROPA...TEMPS SHOULD
TOP OUT AROUND 30F ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016
A 500MB TROUGH WILL BE SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE E THIRD OF THE
NATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER BLAST OF COLD AIR TO SWING
IN ON N WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS AVERAGING
-16C. ACCOMPANYING THIS COLD AIR WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND INCREASED NNW WINDS...WHICH WILL COMBINE TO HELP CREATE
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THROUGH WHITEFISH
POINT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT-MODERATE
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IN THE HWO BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH W-E WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS OVERHEAD. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS.
LOOK FOR THE 500MB RIDGE CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE W SEABOARD TO
SHIFT E...AND BE CENTERED ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES THURSDAY MORNING.
IT WILL BE A RACE TO SEE HOW LOW TEMPERATURES CAN FALL BEFORE HIGH
CLOUDS NEAR FROM THE NW AND WAA TAKES COLD ON INCREASED S-SW WINDS
THURSDAY MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND -8C BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. SINGLE DIGIT LOWS STILL LOOK REASONABLE. THE WAA WILL ALSO
PUT AN END TO THE LES OFF E LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE 500MB RIDGE WILL SWIFTLY SLIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/THURSDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR A TEMPORARY BREAK FROM
THE SNOW...ALTHOUGH WAA SNOW MAY RETURN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM
FRONT THURSDAY EVENING. MIXED PRECIP WILL BE A CONCERN. BY 00Z
FRIDAY 850MB WINDS OUT OF THE S AT 40-55KT WILL HELP USHER 850MB
TEMPS OF -3 TO +3C OVER THE CWA. THERE ARE ENOUGH DIFFERENCES IN THE
FCST MODELS AT THIS DISTANCE TO GIVE MODERATE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
SPECIFIC PRECIP TYPES...ALTHOUGH SNOW...FREEZING RAIN...AND RAIN
WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE AT SOME POINT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP IN THE HWO.
THAT WILL BE UNTIL SFC TEMPS WARM UP ENOUGH FOR MOST OF THE PRECIP
TO FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z GFS WERE FAIRLY
IN LINE WITH SLIDING THE NEARING SFC LOW OVER MN EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...CROSSING UPPER MI/N LAKE MI DURING THE DAY...AND EXITING
ACROSS LAKE HURON FRIDAY EVENING. THE 06Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS MUCH
FARTHER TO THE N WITH THE LOW...WHICH WAS BACKED BY THE ECMWF
YESTERDAY. OVERALL...THE GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT OVERALL WITH
THE TRACK. THE 12Z SOLUTIONS ARE COMING IN WITH AT LEAST SOME BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING...BUT STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR CHANGES.
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE EXITING SFC LOW FRIDAY NIGHT.
JUST HOW COLD IS ANOTHER QUESTION...AS THE GFS AND
ECMWF VARY BY AROUND 5C...RANGING FROM -9C TO -2C /COLDEST OFF THE
ECMWF/ BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS COULD MAKE THE DIFFERENCE IN ALL SNOW
OR LINGERING RAIN/SNOW MIX INLAND SATURDAY MORNING. W-NW WINDS WILL
BE THE RULE FROM 00Z SATURDAY-00Z SUNDAY.
WILL RUN WITH A BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
NEXT MONDAY...AS THE NEXT 500MB TROUGH DIVES IN. THE SMALL SCALE
DIFFERENCES ARE GOING TO BE DIFFICULT TO PERFECT AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
FCST FOR TONIGHT WILL BE CHALLENGING AS LARGER SCALE
SUBSIDENCE/LOWERING INVERSION IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING
MAY BRING ABOUT IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. EXPECT CIGS
TO LOWER TO IFR DEVELOPING LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING AT
KIWD/KCMX...PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO SOME -SN SPREADING INTO THE AREA.
KSAW MAY SEE A PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW TUE AFTERNOON AS
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA LATE TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE
EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016
WITH A WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER LAKES...WINDS ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 20KT TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON TUE AND TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF
HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO MANITOBA WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STRONGER N
WINDS UP TO 30KT TUE AFTN/NIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE
CNTRL AND ERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING. THERE
MAY BE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS. IN ADDITION...EXPECT SOME HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 20KT WED AS HIGH PRES ARRIVES OVER THE
UPPER LAKES. STRONGER SSE WINDS UP TO 30KT WILL THEN DEVELOP ON THU
UNDER A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND
ANOTHER APPROACHING LOW PRES. WINDS MAY INCREASE FURTHER TO GALES
THU NIGHT OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOW WILL PASS OVER
OR JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR FRI. STRONG W TO NW WINDS UP TO 30KT WILL
THEN FOLLOW INTO FRI NIGHT AND SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1136 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 711 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
THE KDLH RADAR HAS SHOWN SNOW SHOWERS...SOME MODERATE TO
HEAVY...MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND FAR NORTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE MODELS WERE NOT DOING A GOOD
JOB HANDLING THIS PRECIP. WE UPDATED POPS TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. STEEP LAPSE RATES WERE IN PLACE AND WERE
AIDING IN PRODUCING THE SNOW SHOWERS. WE ALSO INCREASED SNOW
ACCUMULATION TONIGHT. SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WHERE SNOW SHOWERS MOVE OVER THE SAME
AREA...MOST LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. MOST
AREAS WILL RECEIVE LESS THAN AN INCH.
EARLIER RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGESTS EVEN HIGHER SNOWFALL OVER FAR
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...BUT RECENT VERSIONS HAVE BACKED OFF QUITE A
BIT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF SNOW/FZDZ TRANSLATING
EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MN AND INTO THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
REGION. THE PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A ZONE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION...ACCOMPANIED BY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS 500HPA
TEMPS ARE AROUND NEGATIVE 30C. THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
BE SNOW. HOWEVER...AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
WITH ELEVATED DEW POINTS...SATURATED LOW LEVELS AND BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATING FAVORABLE CLOUD TOP TEMPS FOR SUPER COOLED
WATER DROPLETS.
HAVE INCREASED POPS THIS EVENING FOR TWIN PORTS AND ARROWHEAD
ZONES TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. HOWEVER...THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.
ELSEWHERE....AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS THE REGION
REMAINS SITUATED IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF APPROACHING CANADIAN
COLD FRONT.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD AIR WILL MAKE ITS PUSH INTO THE
BORDERLAND ZONES LATE TONIGHT...WITH 850HPA TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE NEGATIVE TEENS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THE
COLD AIR AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS ACROSS MN AND WI EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LINGERING COLD AIR OVER THE
REGION AND CLEAR SKIES WILL MAKE IT ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT THE
RETURN FLOW MAY MEAN A QUICK BOTTOMING OUT OF THE TEMPS THEN
BECOMING NEARLY STEADY OR MAYBE EVEN RISE OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE
INTENSE WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THURSDAY WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING FROM THE ROCKIES. WITH
A 50 KT 850HPA LOW LEVEL JET IT WON`T TAKE LONG FOR WARM AIR TO
GET INTO OUR AREA. BY THURSDAY EVENING AN 8H WARM NOSE OF +8 TO
+18C IS PROGGED WELL INTO CENTRAL MN AS SFC LOW MOVES OVER MN.
THESE WARM TEMPS WILL BE HELPING TO PRODUCE MIXED TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE SFC LOW AND FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY.
THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES OF TRACK OF THE LOW THE GFS KEEP
SFC LOW OVER FAR NRN MN WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS SFC LOW OVER SRN
MN. MORE RESOLUTION WILL BE GIVEN IN THE FORECASTS AS TO TIMING
AND TYPES AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...SHORTWAVE ALOFT...AND 850-500MB LAPSE
RATES FROM 6.5-7.5C/KM HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THIS
EVENING OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
CEILINGS RANGING FROM MVFR TO LIFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT BUT WILL
IMPROVE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. DRIER AIR MOVING IN TONIGHT WILL
RAISE THE LIFR/IFR CEILINGS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WE IMPROVE
CONDITIONS TO VFR FOR MOST TAF SITES LATE TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME STRATOCUMULUS THAT FORMS UNDER
COLD AIR ALOFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LAKE INDUCED MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD ALSO IMPACT KHYR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 20 25 0 18 / 70 30 0 10
INL 10 16 -10 17 / 10 10 0 10
BRD 22 27 1 21 / 20 20 0 10
HYR 20 31 4 22 / 80 50 10 10
ASX 22 31 7 20 / 80 50 40 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
317 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
...TEMPS NOT QUITE AS WARM AS YESTERDAY BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
AND TEMPS WILL SURGE TO SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL THU-SAT
WITH POSSIBLE FIRE WX CONCERNS N-CNTRL KS THU...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
ALOFT: SIMILAR TO 24 HRS AGO...A VORT MAX WAS MOVING THRU THE NRN
PLAINS ON ITS WAY INTO THE ERN USA TROF. NW FLOW WILL REMAIN
LOCKED IN THRU TONIGHT. A LOW WAS MOVING INTO SW CANADA. A WEAK
VORT MAX WILL TOP THE RIDGE AND HEAD SE INTO ND BY 00Z/WED AND
INTO IA/IL BY 12Z.
SURFACE: A WEAK COOL FRONT PASSED THRU LAST EVENING. IN ITS WAKE
...A SMALL HIGH PRES CENTER WAS SLIDING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE. THIS
HIGH WILL DEPART TO THE E LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A NEW LOW
CREEPS DOWN THE FRONT RANGE WITHIN THE REDEVELOPING LEE TROF. THIS
LOW WILL EXIT THE TROF INTO SD TONIGHT...WITH A WARM FRONT FORMING
TO ITS S. THIS FRONT WILL HEAD E SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE SANDHILLS
SE INTO ERN KS BY DAYBREAK WED.
NOW: CAA IS STRONGEST RIGHT NOW AND PEAKS PRIOR TO SUNRISE. MID-
HIGH CLOUDS ARE CLEARING BEHIND THE DEPARTING VORT MAX...EXCEPT
FOR THE BAND OF 7-11K FT CLOUDS FROM THE PANHANDLE SE INTO NW KS.
THESE CLOUDS ARE NOT BEING MODELED WELL...AND THIS IS BOTHERSOME.
THE 07Z AND 08Z RAP HAVE IT BUT QUICKLY ERASE IT WHICH IS NOT
HAPPENING. IF THIS CLOUD DECK STICKS AROUND LONGER THAN EXPECTED
THAT WILL BUST THE TEMP FCST OVER THE SW 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA.
ORD GUSTED TO 40 KTS AT 821Z.
TODAY: CAA WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS PRES GRAD WEAKENS. WEAK
WAA DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS BACK. NW WINDS WILL GUST
25-35 MPH UNTIL NOON. ONE-TIME PEAK G35-45 POSSIBLE...BUT NOT
EVERYWHERE. HIGHEST GUSTS BEFORE 9 AM.
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL BE HARD TO ACCT FOR. WE SHOULD SEE A
CONSIDERABLE AMT OF STRATOCU IN THE THERMAL TROF OVER THE E 1/2 OF
THE FCST AREA. AS WINDS BACK AND WAA DEVELOPS...THE BACK EDGE OF
THIS STRATOCU WILL DEPART TO THE E. HOWEVER...MULTI-MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS SUGGEST MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL RE-INVADE FROM THE NW THIS
AFTERNOON.
LOWERED HIGHS 2-3F FROM THE PRVS FCST.
TONIGHT: M/CLOUDY THRU MIDNIGHT WITH MULTIPLE DECKS OF MID-HIGH
CLOUDS...THEN CLEARING. LEFT LOW TEMPS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO PRVS
FCST. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE MID AND LONG TERM PERIODS IS
THE TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THURSDAY
APPROACHING RECORD TEMPERATURES IN SOME AREAS. THE NORMAL TO ABOVE
NORMAL TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.
WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY:
THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE WARMEST. HIGHS WILL BE
AROUND 20-30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY
AS LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS. THE LEE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND A SURFACE
LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE WIND FIELD TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ALLOWING WINDS TO NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS IN KEY FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...
SEE DISCUSSION BELOW. ABUNDANT INSOLATION FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY AND
THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MIXING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO REACH ABOUT 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...CURRENTLY STAYING SHY OF
RECORD TEMPERATURES...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH. SEE THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN ENERGY WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA
WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE MAIN PRECIP NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WAVE
WILL PULL A FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT BECAUSE
IT IS NOT A CANADIAN AIRMASS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HAMPERED ONLY
SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS AGAIN ON FRIDAY ABOVE NORMAL. WITH AN ACTIVE
UPPER PATTERN ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AGAIN NOT IMPACTING THE AIRMASS MUCH.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S BEFORE INCREASING
ON THURSDAY INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S. THE PASSAGE OF THE PACIFIC
FRONT ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL KNOCK TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOW 60S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OVERALL THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND START OF
THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BE PLEASANT.
SUNDAY - MONDAY:
A SECONDARY FRONT WILL PUSH IN EARLY SUNDAY WITH A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COOLER AIR. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S
AND 40S RESPECTIVELY. THE PERIOD REMAINS ACTIVE WITH MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW INCREASING INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUE NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
SIGNIFICANT WX: NW WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST UP TO 35 KTS THRU
15Z.
REST OF TONIGHT: VFR CIGS 9-12K FT. SOME SCT CLOUDS 4-6K FT
POSSIBLE. THEN 2000-2500 FT MVFR STRATUS INVADES AROUND 09Z. NW
WINDS INCREASE AND GUST UP TO 35 KTS. CONFIDENCE: LOW MAINLY DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY ON IF MVFR CIGS MOVE IN. FCST GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO
LOW WITH ITS CIGS. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MVFR CIGS UPSTREAM.
TUE: MVFR CIGS? BEST CHANCE AT GRI AS EAR WILL BE ON THE WRN EDGE
AND MAY ONLY BE SCT025. MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE
8K FT WILL INVADE AFTER 18Z. NW WINDS GUST UP TO 35 KTS UNTIL
18Z. THEN WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. CONFIDENCE: LOW DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY ON MVFR CIGS.
TUE EVE: VFR CIGS AROUND 8K FT. NW WINDS CONT TO SUBSIDE AND SHIFT
TO SW. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
FIRE WEATHER COULD STILL BE A CONCERN OVER MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS...WHERE FUELS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING DRY AND OTHER
CONDITIONS FAVOR FIRE GROWTH. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A LOT OF
CONCERNS REGARDING FAVORABLE FIRE GROWTH...WETTER FUELS...WIND
SPEEDS AND RH`S. DUE TO RECENT SNOW MELT FUELS MAY BE TOO WET. THE
BETTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OF THE NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AREA WHICH COULD LIMIT WIND SPEEDS ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE LOWEST...AROUND 25
PERCENT. WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS...ESPECIALLY THE DAY SHIFT TO
COORDINATE FUELS AND SEE HOW THE FORECAST TRENDS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
RECORD HIGHS FOR FEBRUARY 18TH
GRAND ISLAND.....71 DEGREES IN 1948
HASTINGS.........74 DEGREES IN 1930
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BILLINGS WRIGHT
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
FIRE WEATHER...BILLINGS WRIGHT
CLIMATE...BILLINGS WRIGHT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1118 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES. A POTENT SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH A
SURFACE/LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE CIRRUS DECK...WHICH EXTENDS INTO THE
DAKOTAS AND MONTANA BASED ON IR/WV...HAS BEEN RATHER DENSE TODAY
WHICH HAS SLOWED THE RISE IN TEMPS. DESPITE MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAK RADAR ECHOES OVER THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA TODAY...ABUNDANT DRY LEVEL AIR HAS JUST LED TO VIRGA.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...EXPECT SATURATION TO SLOWLY WORK DOWN
TO ABOUT 800-850HPA AS INDICATED IN NAM...GFS...AND RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. THE RAP ALSO SHOWS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL LIFT TO
SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
BASED ON SOME VIRGA IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND LAPSE RATES OF
7-8C/KM DIRECTLY ABOVE THE SFC INVERSION FROM RAP
SOUNDINGS...EXPANDED SCHC MENTION TO COVER THE REST OF THE CWA. A
120+KT 250HPA JET ENTERS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...ADDING TO THE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND DIVERGENCE. WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S THROUGH 06Z AND SFC WET BULB AOA 0C...EXPECT
PREDOMINANT PTYPE TO BE RAIN. DRY AIR ENTRAINS INTO THE SYSTEM
FROM THE WEST BY 06Z...LIMITING PRECIP CHANCES TO NORTH CENTRAL
NEB. CUT MENTION TO SPRINKLES NEAR KONL WITH BULK OF MOISTURE
STAYING BELOW 800HPA AND THE LOSS OF APPRECIABLE LIFT. A FEW
SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN AT THE END...BUT MOISTURE REALLY SHUTS OFF
WHEN THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WOULD SUPPORT FZRA OR RASN. MADE
LITTLE ADJUSTMENT TO MIN TEMPS AS THEY GENERALLY LIE NEAR MOS
GUIDANCE...PRIMARILY MAV AND ECM. TEMPS REMAIN RATHER MILD DUE TO
CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND GUSTY WINDS. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR WIND SPEED DURING THE FROPA AS NORTHWEST 850HPA
WINDS OF 35-45KTS ARE SHOWN BY THE NAM AND RAP. CONFIDENCE IN MIN
TEMPS A LITTLE LOWER SOUTH OF I-80 WHERE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
AND LIGHTENING OF WINDS TOWARD DAWN IS POSSIBLE...LEADING TO
COOLER TEMPS.
TUESDAY...TRENDED MAX TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR SO FOR MOST
LOCATIONS BUT STILL REMAIN MILD WITH 50S SW AND 40S NC. MODELS
SHOW CAA FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND 850HPA TEMPS BELOW 0C UNTIL 00Z
WED. ANOTHER MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY IS LIKELY AS THE MOISTURE PLUME AS
SHOWN BY WV IMAGERY EXTENDS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST. ALSO...ANOTHER
BOUNDARY EXITS THE PANHANDLE IN THE AFTERNOON...HELPING ENHANCE
LOWER LEVEL LIFT. THE NAM SHOWS BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 290K
ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AFTER 18Z AND 500HPA TEMPS NEAR -20C. FAR
WEST/PANHANDLE...WHERE DOWNGLIDE WILL TAKE EFFECT EARLIER AFTER
THE BOUNDARY PASSAGE AND 850HPA WAA...MAX TEMPS MAY BE ON THE
COOL SIDE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
LONG TERM DOMINATED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE IF
ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WORK
WEEK THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL MIGRATE EAST AND AMPLIFY OVER THE
PLAINS. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA WITH A THERMAL
RIDGE PEAKING ON THURSDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
RAIN SHOWER IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE NEB/S DAKOTA BORDER...HOWEVER
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE DRY LOWER LEVELS IS TOO MUCH TO
OVERCOME AND NOTHING REACHING THE GROUND. BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK
RIDGING REBUILDS QUICKLY ACROSS THE ROCKIES...KEEPING TEMPS ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS INTO THE WEEKEND.
WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE THURSDAY AS MODELS
SURGE 850 MB TEMPS WELL INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 C. MOS
GUIDANCE IS ALSO UNSEASONABLY HIGH WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SHOULD HAVE MOST OF THE SNOW MELTED BY THEN AND MODELS INDICATING
BREEZY CONDITIONS SO MIXING SHOULD BE REALIZED AND FORECAST
FOLLOWS CLOSE TO GUIDANCE. RECORDS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE LOWER
70S...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AS A RECORD HIGH MAY BE REACHED.
ALSO GOING TO HAVE TO WATCH FIRE CONDITIONS...AS OFTEN WITH
RECORD WARMTH IS A HIGH FIRE DANGER. MIN RH VALUES LIKELY NEAR 20
PERCENT IN A FEW LOCATIONS...AND COULD BE LOWER.
WHILE THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL KNOCK DOWN TEMPS
FOR THE WEEKEND...GUIDANCE STILL HAS TEMPS REBOUNDING TO AROUND
60...WHICH WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER COOL DOWN EXPECTED. LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT AND FORECAST REMAINS DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
CEILING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE ABOVE 6000 FEET AGL WITH
VISIBILITY GREATER THAN 5SM. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE UNTIL 09Z IN WESTERN NEBRASKA.
AN UPPER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS LATE TONIGHT. THE
RESULTING WIND AT 1500-2000 FEET AGL WILL BE 300-340 AND INCREASE TO
45KT. IN THE NORTH...THE WIND WILL TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE THOUGH
SURFACE FRICTION WILL REDUCE IT TO 18G26KT. IN THE SOUTHWEST...THE
WIND IS LIKELY TO REMAIN CUT OFF FROM THE SURFACE BY A SURFACE
TEMPERATURE INVERSION. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IN LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER
VALLEY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1045 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT 20Z
WITH MILD TEMPERATURES FOUND ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA.
MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE TIMING OF THE FEATURE AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH EXTENT AND TYPE OF PRECIP. 19Z RUC BRINGS
THE SURFACE LOW INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA PRIOR TO 06Z AND INTO
CENTRAL MISSOURI BY 12Z. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST AREAS THROUGH 06Z PRECIP SHOULD BE
LIQUID DURING THAT TIME THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW
MIX NORTH TO SOUTH AS TEMPERATURES COOL ALOFT AND SYSTEM TRACKS
TO THE SOUTHEAST. SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT WHERE SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY INDICATED.
LATEST DAY1 OUTLOOK FROM SPC SHOWS AN AXIS FOR GENERAL THUNDER
INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. COOLER AIR FOLLOWS BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WESTERN
RIDGE STARTS TO MOVE EAST WITH SPRING LIKE TEMPERATURES FOR THE
AREA ON THURSDAY. SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA WHICH HAVE BEEN SNOW
FREE FOR MOST OF THE MONTH MAY APPROACH 70.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
MILD PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS FLOW REMAINS NEARLY
ZONAL. SOME PRECIP MAY CLIP NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AS FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BUT OTHERWISE LOOKS DRY AFTER THAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
LIGHT RAIN IS ALREADY IN THE AREA AND WILL AFFECT SITES FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. AM GROWING SKEPTICAL OF A RAIN-SNOW MIX...BUT HELD
ONTO MENTION AT KOMA/KOFK AS TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING INTO THE
30S. THAT SAID...DO THINK RAIN WILL DOMINATE...AS UPSTREAM OBS ARE
STILL RAIN FOR QUITE A WAYS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW THE RAIN AND LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST AROUND MIDDAY. STILL
LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER CEILINGS WILL SLIP INTO THE IFR
RANGE...AND HAVE LEFT LOW-END MVFR FOR NOW. ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON WHEN CEILINGS WILL BREAK...WITH VFR CEILINGS TO FOLLOW FOR THE
REST OF THE TAF CYCLE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH/BEHIND
THE PRECIPITATION...CONTINUING THROUGH AFTERNOON BEFORE SLACKENING
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MAYES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1147 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
WITH HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND SNOW CHANGING
TO RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY IN NORTHERN JEFFERSON
COUNTY ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
EVENING BEFORE ENDING. BEYOND THIS STORM SYSTEM... A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER AIR LINGERING THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK BEFORE MORE MODERATE TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SNOW FILLING IN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR RETURNS ARE MATCHING UP
NICELY WITH HRRR GUIDANCE IN SHOWING A PERSISTENT AREA OF LOWER
RETURNS ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER WHERE LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR
REMAINS STUBBORNLY ENTRENCHED. NONETHELESS...GIVEN CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...REMAIN CONFIDENT IN THE HRRR WHICH ALSO SUPPORTS CURRENT
FORECAST THAT GENERATES A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW ALONG A LINE RUNNING
ROUGHLY FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY
TO THE VICINITY OF WATERTOWN. SNOWFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVERNIGHT WITH PEAK SNOWFALL RATES
OCCURRING TUESDAY MORNING AS A ZONE OF STRONG DEFORMATION PIVOTS
ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE RESPONSIBLE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST. THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL KEEP
WESTERN NY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE... THUS
STILL EXPECT MUCH OF WESTERN NY TO SEE 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW...
WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 12 TO 18 INCHES LIKELY IN THE VICINITY
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE BETWEEN BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER WHERE THE
BEST DEFORMATION AND BANDED SNOW DEVELOPS. THE BULK OF THE SNOW
WILL IMPACT WESTERN NY BETWEEN BETWEEN 3AM AND EARLY AFTERNOON
TUESDAY... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES AN HOUR DEVELOPING BETWEEN ABOUT 5AM AND NOON IN THE
FAVORED AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL BETWEEN BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER.
NEAR ROCHESTER AND ALONG THE GENESEE VALLEY... SIMILAR TO WESTERN NY
SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND BECOME HEAVIEST TOWARD SUNRISE
TUESDAY. HOWEVER... THERE WILL BE A SHARP TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN
SNOW TO THE WEST AND RAIN TO THE EAST THAT DEVELOPS NEAR THE GENESEE
VALLEY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG THIS TRANSITION ZONE WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW... WITH LOCATIONS JUST WEST OF THE TRANSITION ZONE
LIKELY THE SEE SOME OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS... WHILE
LOCATIONS JUST TO THE EAST WILL SEE MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS WITH A PERIOD
OF RAIN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. PRESENTLY... ROCHESTER LOOKS TO BE
JUST ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS AXIS... BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW
HOURS WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO A WINTRY MIX DURING THE DAY.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 9 TO 18 INCHES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
CORNERS OF THESE COUNTIES WITH LOWER AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST CORNERS OF THESE COUNTIES.
FROM WAYNE COUNTY EAST TO LEWIS COUNTY (EXCLUDING JEFFERSON
COUNTY)... A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL TRACK NORTHWARD
ACROSS THIS AREA OVERNIGHT BEFORE MUCH WARMER AIR SURGES INTO THE
AREA BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE SNOW TO QUICKLY TRANSITION THROUGH
A WINTRY MIX TO ALL RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THESE LOCATIONS
CAN EXPECT 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW TONIGHT BEFORE JUST SOME SLUSHY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON TUESDAY BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO ALL
RAIN. RAIN MAY ACTUALLY BE HEAVY AT TIMES TUESDAY WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO ON TUESDAY. RAIN WILL THEN CHANGE BACK TO
SNOW TUESDAY EVENING WITH A BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
PRODUCING A QUICK 2 TO 5 INCHES AS THE DEFORMATION AXIS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK ACROSS THE AREA.
JEFFERSON COUNTY...JEFFERSON COUNTY WILL EVOLVE SIMILARLY TO
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THERE (SEE SECTION ABOVE)... HOWEVER THE
IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY ALONG THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. WITH MODELS MORE CONSISTENT ON THE TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW... IT REMAINS VERY LIKELY THAT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
FUNNEL COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE DOWN THE VALLEY. THE STRONG SURGE
OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW RIDING OVER THE SUB-
FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE VALLEY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY
TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING JUST NORTH OF WATERTOWN ALONG THE RIVER
VALLEY... WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF ICE
ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS COULD BRING DOWN NUMEROUS
TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES
ALONG THE VALLEY.
IN ADDITION... THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK HAS PROMPTED A FLOOD WATCH. STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED... WITH AROUND AN INCH AND HALF TO TWO
INCHES OF THAT FALLING AS RAIN. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN AND
SOME SNOW MELT MAY RESULT IN FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. SMALL CREEKS MAY ALSO SEE SIGNIFICANT RISES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ON WEDNESDAY A RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES. A PERIOD OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN
THE DPVA REGIME AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR A
FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. A MODEST AMOUNT OF LAKE MOISTURE AND
ALSO UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF SOME LIGHT SNOW
EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WHERE SOME VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. EXPECT HIGHS NEAR THE
MID FEBRUARY AVERAGES WITH LOW 30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND UPPER 20S
HIGHER TERRAIN.
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST. THIS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BUT MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL GREATLY LIMIT INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE. EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION TO BE AN INCH OR LESS FROM
ROCHESTER TO OSWEGO COUNTY AND ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. A
COLDER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TEENS ON THE LAKE PLAINS
AND SINGLE DIGITS INLAND.
THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER LAKES. ANY LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL END EARLY IN
THE DAY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WILL BRING A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S IN MOST AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST TO
NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR HOLDING OFF
ANY PRECIP FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY A STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT WARMER AIR INTO OUR REGION WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 40S FRIDAY AND MID 40S SATURDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THIS
WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE PRECIP TO FALL AS LIGHT RAIN. THE NORTH
COUNTRY WILL STAY COOLER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. THIS MAY ALLOW PRECIP TYPE TO
REMAIN MORE WET SNOW WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND FROM
THE LAKE.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
BRINGS A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKES WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
AND COLDER TEMPERATURES...WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY. EITHER SCENARIO WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSER
TO AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT SNOW IS BEGINNING TO FILL IN
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY AND THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE IFR CONDITIONS
HAVE DEVELOPED. MVFR CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS. NONETHELESS...LIGHT SNOW IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
AND IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP IN INTENSITY AFTER 06Z AS A STRONG
DEFORMATION ZONE SETS UP INVOF THE GENESEE VALLEY. WITH THIS EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO IFR EVEN ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER.
AS THE MAIN SNOWBAND COALESCES ALONG A LINE ROUGHLY FROM KJHW TO
KFZY...EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS IN +SN WITHIN THIS BAND WITH IFR
CONDITIONS BRACKETING MUCH OF WESTERN NY. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS
LINE...EXPECT MIXED PRECIP WITH SLEET/FREEZING RAIN.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
AND THE VICINITY OF KROC THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY
WITH MIXED PRECIP MOVING INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY INCLUDING KART
BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN LATER IN THE DAY. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AND DRAGS THE COLDER AIR AND SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEFORMATION ZONE BACK ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE...MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WRN NY BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER
IN THE DAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. IFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY VFR AS THIS SNOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR WITH SNOW IN WESTERN NEW YORK AND SNOW
CHANGING TO RAIN IN CENTRAL NEW YORK.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW.
&&
.MARINE...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NY STATE ON
TUESDAY... WITH NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY
AS THE LOW TRACKS TOWARD QUEBEC. HAVE ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR WINDS AND WAVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A VERY COMPLEX HYDRO EVENT WILL UNFOLD ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. SNOW WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THEN CHANGE TO RAIN EARLY TUESDAY
BEFORE GOING BACK TO SNOW BY EARLY EVENING. THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO FOCUS IN A CORRIDOR
ALONG AND JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 81.
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THE RAINFALL PLUS SOME SNOW MELT MAY RESULT IN
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND POSSIBLY SMALL
CREEKS. THE NEW SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL INITIALLY ABSORB SOME OF THE
RAINFALL...BUT SHOULD THEN RELEASE WATER FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE WARMEST.
WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...WE HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR ONTARIO...
WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA...OSWEGO...JEFFERSON...AND LEWIS COUNTIES.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EST TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NYZ004>008-014.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ004>008.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ001>003-
010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR LOZ042>044.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CHURCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...CHURCH
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1202 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE INLAND INTO EASTERN
SECTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION
LATER TODAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM MONDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE TRIAD EAST TO PERSON COUNTY
EXTENDED THROUGH 700 AM TUESDAY MORNING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DAVIDSON AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES
EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...
WE CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS PROPAGATING NORTH ACROSS THE STUBBORN CAD
AIRMASS...WITH SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ANALYZED ON THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THE SLOW EROSION OF THE CAD
AIRMASS AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS IS PROBLEMATIC...WITH THESE SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST WITH THE
CONVECTIVE LINE CROSSING THE SOUTHEAST STATES. EVEN THE THE COLDEST
GUIDANCE...THE HRRR/WRFNMM...WHICH MAY STILL WARM THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT TO QUICKLY...SHOWS TEMPS GETTING ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY AREA BY 10PM AND THE WINTER STORM AREA
BY 2AM. IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE ENTIRE ADVISORY AREA WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING BY 10PM...BUT GIVEN THAT THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS SHOULD BE OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...WE WILL
LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 10PM.
THE WARNING AND ADDITIONAL ADVISORY AREA FOR RANDOLPH AND DAVIDSON
COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE AND THE ADVISORY WILL BE REEVALUATED AT
MIDNIGHT. WE ARE A CONCERNED ABOUT ICE ACCRUAL IN FORSYTH COUNTY
(TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 20S) WHERE THE CAD AIRMASS MAY NOT
COMPLETELY ERODE UNTIL THE CONVECTIVE LINE SWEEPS THROUGH...AND
GIVEN HRRR HOURLY PRECIP AMOUNTS OF .04 TO .08 INCHES IN THE
SHOWERS... ANOTHER TENTH OR TWO OF ICE ISN`T COMPLETELY OUR OF THE
QUESTION IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY.
REGARDING SOME OF THE FOG IN THE PIEDMONT...THIS LOOKS TO BE
TRANSIENT WITH THE WEDGE FRONT AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD WEST IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN BE ERODED WITH THE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE NEEDED AT THE MOMENT.
AND FOR THE CONVECTIVE LINE...THE TIMING APPEARS TO BE
UNCHANGED...ARRIVING IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT CLOSE AROUND
4AM...THOUGH WARM ADVECTION IS LIKELY TO SUPPORT SOME PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE LINE AS WELL. SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BY THE SLOW INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE
COASTAL FRONT AND WARM SECTOR...AND SO THE COASTAL PLAIN STILL
APPEARS TO BE FAVORED FOR THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE WIND
GUSTS...WHERE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE SHOULD MATERIALIZE. MODELS
STILL SHOW THE PRIMARY LOW TRACK THROUGH THE PIEDMONT...BUT IT SEEMS
THIS STILL HAS SOME WESTWARD ERROR AND ANY TORNADO THREAT IS ALSO
MOST LIKELY NEAR THE COAST. STILL...HRRR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
EROSION OF THE NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER AND ADDED DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL
LEAD TO SOME 40-50KT WIND GUSTS...PRIMARILY EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM MONDAY...
PRECIP...IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ONGOING TO START THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE QUICKLY RACING FROM THE TRIAD TO
THE TRIANGLE BY 12Z AND AND THEN OFFSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY WEAK (BUT NON-ZERO) DURING THE TIME...WITH
ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. NEVERTHELESS...THE SPC HAS PLACED THIS AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
ROBUST SHORT WAVE TROUGH. IN ADDITION...AN INTENSE LOW LEVEL JET (60-
70 KNOTS)...WILL BE PRESENT...BUT RAPIDLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE THROUGH
18Z. THEREFORE...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE
STRONGER STORMS. REGARDLESS...WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY...EVEN
OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BY THIS
TIME AND THEREFORE AM NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
OVERNIGHT...JUST AN INCREASE IN SOME CLOUDS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY...MAINTAINING A CYCLONIC FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC. A SERIES OF
UPPER DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE
PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AS THE
MOISTURE...WHILE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE CLOUDS...NOT ENOUGH TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS GENERALLY 50-55 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING.
THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND LIFTS NEWD BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...PERMITTING A PERIOD OF S/W RIDGING TO OCCUR. THIS WILL
INITIATE A WARMING PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY. A S/W IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM
WILL CROSS NORTH OF OUR REGION...DRAGGING A MOISTURE STARVED FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT. AIR MASS BEHIND THE
FRONT OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SO NOT EXPECTING A BLAST OF COLD AIR.
MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE S/W EXITING THE CENTRAL-
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE 00Z ECMWF DEPICTING
MORE AMPLITUDE THAN THE 12Z GFS. FOR NOW...WILL INCREASE CLOUDINESS
MONDAY BUT KEEP POPS AOB 20%.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 555 PM MONDAY...
DANGEROUS AVIATION CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...
(V)LIFR CONDITIONS; PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION --ALL OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY AND SOME WINTRY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS-- AND
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS...WILL AFFECT CENTRAL NC
TAF SITES.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...INCLUDING MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING
RAIN ONES OVER TRIAD TAF SITES WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...WILL
TRANSITION TO LIQUID ONES AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. MEANWHILE TO THE EAST...THE TEMPERATURE WILL
BREACH FREEZING AND RESULT IN FOLLOWING ALL LIQUID SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST FROM RWI TO RDU IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WHILE THE TEMPERATURE HAS ALREADY RISEN ABOVE
FREEZING AT FAY.
AN EXPANSION OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE ONGOING
LIFR CEILINGS TONIGHT...AS A WARM FRONT RETREATS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE APPROACH OF A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PASSAGE OF AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT IN THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF A
BAND OF HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS WESTERLY FLOW AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS BY EARLY TUE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...ON THE
HEELS OF THE LEAD ONE TONIGHT...WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUE-EARLY TUE NIGHT. LOW VFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT
RAIN MAY RESULT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN TAF SITES.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>076-083-084.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-085-086-088.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007-
021>024.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1127 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE INLAND INTO EASTERN
SECTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM MONDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE TRIAD EAST TO PERSON COUNTY
EXTENDED THROUGH 700 AM TUESDAY MORNING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DAVIDSON AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES
EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...
WE CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS PROPAGATING NORTH ACROSS THE STUBBORN CAD
AIRMASS...WITH SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ANALYZED ON THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THE SLOW EROSION OF THE CAD
AIRMASS AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS IS PROBLEMATIC...WITH THESE SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST WITH THE
CONVECTIVE LINE CROSSING THE SOUTHEAST STATES. EVEN THE THE COLDEST
GUIDANCE...THE HRRR/WRFNMM...WHICH MAY STILL WARM THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT TO QUICKLY...SHOWS TEMPS GETTING ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY AREA BY 10PM AND THE WINTER STORM AREA
BY 2AM. IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE ENTIRE ADVISORY AREA WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING BY 10PM...BUT GIVEN THAT THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS SHOULD BE OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...WE WILL
LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 10PM.
THE WARNING AND ADDITIONAL ADVISORY AREA FOR RANDOLPH AND DAVIDSON
COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE AND THE ADVISORY WILL BE REEVALUATED AT
MIDNIGHT. WE ARE A CONCERNED ABOUT ICE ACCRUAL IN FORSYTH COUNTY
(TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 20S) WHERE THE CAD AIRMASS MAY NOT
COMPLETELY ERODE UNTIL THE CONVECTIVE LINE SWEEPS THROUGH...AND
GIVEN HRRR HOURLY PRECIP AMOUNTS OF .04 TO .08 INCHES IN THE
SHOWERS... ANOTHER TENTH OR TWO OF ICE ISN`T COMPLETELY OUR OF THE
QUESTION IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY.
REGARDING SOME OF THE FOG IN THE PIEDMONT...THIS LOOKS TO BE
TRANSIENT WITH THE WEDGE FRONT AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD WEST IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN BE ERODED WITH THE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE NEEDED AT THE MOMENT.
AND FOR THE CONVECTIVE LINE...THE TIMING APPEARS TO BE
UNCHANGED...ARRIVING IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT CLOSE AROUND
4AM...THOUGH WARM ADVECTION IS LIKELY TO SUPPORT SOME PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE LINE AS WELL. SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BY THE SLOW INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE
COASTAL FRONT AND WARM SECTOR...AND SO THE COASTAL PLAIN STILL
APPEARS TO BE FAVORED FOR THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE WIND
GUSTS...WHERE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE SHOULD MATERIALIZE. MODELS
STILL SHOW THE PRIMARY LOW TRACK THROUGH THE PIEDMONT...BUT IT SEEMS
THIS STILL HAS SOME WESTWARD ERROR AND ANY TORNADO THREAT IS ALSO
MOST LIKELY NEAR THE COAST. STILL...HRRR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
EROSION OF THE NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER AND ADDED DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL
LEAD TO SOME 40-50KT WIND GUSTS...PRIMARILY EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM MONDAY...
PRECIP...IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ONGOING TO START THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE QUICKLY RACING FROM THE TRIAD TO
THE TRIANGLE BY 12Z AND AND THEN OFFSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY WEAK (BUT NON-ZERO) DURING THE TIME...WITH
ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. NEVERTHELESS...THE SPC HAS PLACED THIS AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
ROBUST SHORT WAVE TROUGH. IN ADDITION...AN INTENSE LOW LEVEL JET (60-
70 KNOTS)...WILL BE PRESENT...BUT RAPIDLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE THROUGH
18Z. THEREFORE...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE
STRONGER STORMS. REGARDLESS...WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY...EVEN
OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BY THIS
TIME AND THEREFORE AM NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
OVERNIGHT...JUST AN INCREASE IN SOME CLOUDS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY...MAINTAINING A CYCLONIC FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC. A SERIES OF
UPPER DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE
PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AS THE
MOISTURE...WHILE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE CLOUDS...NOT ENOUGH TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS GENERALLY 50-55 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING.
THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND LIFTS NEWD BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...PERMITTING A PERIOD OF S/W RIDGING TO OCCUR. THIS WILL
INITIATE A WARMING PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY. A S/W IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM
WILL CROSS NORTH OF OUR REGION...DRAGGING A MOISTURE STARVED FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT. AIR MASS BEHIND THE
FRONT OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SO NOT EXPECTING A BLAST OF COLD AIR.
MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE S/W EXITING THE CENTRAL-
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE 00Z ECMWF DEPICTING
MORE AMPLITUDE THAN THE 12Z GFS. FOR NOW...WILL INCREASE CLOUDINESS
MONDAY BUT KEEP POPS AOB 20%.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 555 PM MONDAY...
DANGEROUS AVIATION CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...
(V)LIFR CONDITIONS; PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION --ALL OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY AND SOME WINTRY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS-- AND
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS...WILL AFFECT CENTRAL NC
TAF SITES.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...INCLUDING MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING
RAIN ONES OVER TRIAD TAF SITES WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...WILL
TRANSITION TO LIQUID ONES AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. MEANWHILE TO THE EAST...THE TEMPERATURE WILL
BREACH FREEZING AND RESULT IN FOLLOWING ALL LIQUID SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST FROM RWI TO RDU IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WHILE THE TEMPERATURE HAS ALREADY RISEN ABOVE
FREEZING AT FAY.
AN EXPANSION OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE ONGOING
LIFR CEILINGS TONIGHT...AS A WARM FRONT RETREATS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE APPROACH OF A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PASSAGE OF AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT IN THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF A
BAND OF HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS WESTERLY FLOW AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS BY EARLY TUE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...ON THE
HEELS OF THE LEAD ONE TONIGHT...WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUE-EARLY TUE NIGHT. LOW VFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT
RAIN MAY RESULT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN TAF SITES.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ007>010-
021>026-038>041-073>076-083-084.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ011-027-028-
042-043-077-085-086-088.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ038-
039.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ007-021>024.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1231 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
MAIN CHANGE THIS UPDATE WAS FOR PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. MAIN AREA OF RAIN/SNOW MIX OR LIGHT SNOW HAS
ALREADY EXITED THE STATE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW BAND EVIDENT ON REGIONAL RADARS EXTENDED FROM THE
CROSBY/SHERWOOD AREA OF NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SOUTH TOWARDS LAKE
SAKAKAWEA AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSOURI VALLEY OF NORTH DAKOTA.
SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW THIS AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...DIMINISHING TOWARDS DAYBREAK. SLIGHT CHANGES IN HOURLY
TEMPERATURE TRENDS. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK WITH
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AS NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 817 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. SNOW FROM MINOT
SOUTHWEST TO NEAR HAZEN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO BISMARCK BY 9-930.
THEN SOUTHEAST TOWARD JAMESTOWN. VISIBILITIES IN THE SNOW SEEM TO
DROP TO ABOUT 1 MILE AND LAST FOR ABOUT AN HOUR. AREA MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 45 TO 50 MPH. EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT AS
WELL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
AT 630 PM CST...SEVERAL BANDS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WERE
DETECTED BY RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE REFINED THE POPS AND WEATHER TYPES ALONE THESE
OBSERVATIONS.
THE FIRST AREA EXTENDED FROM ROLLA AND RUGBY SOUTHEAST TO NEAR
BISMARCK. THIS AREA IS MAINLY SNOW BUT A RAIN MIX POSSIBLE EARLY
AS IT MOVES THROUGH TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING.
A SECOND AREA OF SNOW BRIEFLY PRODUCED 1/2 MILE VISIBILITY
FOR A SHORT TIME AT ESTEVAN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS NARROW BAND OF
PRECIP WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL FOLLOWING THE PREVIOUS ONE
BUT REMAINING FURTHER NORTH FROM MINOT THROUGH DEVILS LAKE LATER
THIS EVENING.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BE GENERALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH A BRIEF
COOL-DOWN EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
AS OF 21 UTC...LOW- AND MID-LEVEL SATURATION HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE
AT A SLOWER RATE THAN PERHAPS EXPECTED BASED ON A LACK OF SURFACE
PRECIPITATION REPORTS AND RELATIVELY ANEMIC REFLECTIVITY ON 0.5
DEGREE RADAR DATA. RECENT HIGH-RESOLUTION...RAPID-REFRESH MODEL
GUIDANCE /INCLUDING THE RAP AND HRRR/ STILL SUPPORTS THE FORMATION
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND BY 00 UTC WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THAT MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS ALSO BEEN TRENDING LOWER WITH QPF...AND SINCE THAT IS
IN LINE WITH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WE BELIEVE THAT TO BE ACCURATE.
OUR FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
THROUGH TONIGHT FROM NORTH CENTRAL ND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT RAIN INITIALLY OVER WESTERN AND PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL ND...BEFORE A SWITCH TO POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW BY THE
TIME THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS WINDING DOWN THIS EVENING.
WE ARE STILL CALLING FOR A PERIOD OF NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT
30 MPH THIS EVENING BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING
SURFACE COLD FRONT BASED ON RAP-FORECAST 3-HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE
CHANGES OF 3-5 MB /HIGHEST IN SOUTHWEST ND/. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN
AREA OF STRATUS /LOW CLOUDS/ WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...WITH SOME HINTS OF ADDITIONAL...WEAK IMPULSES IN
LINGERING CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WE HAVE LOW POPS IN PLAY
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL ND AFTER 06 UTC TO ACCOUNT FOR
THAT...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE STRATUS DECK MIGHT BE
WARMER THAN -12 C...SUGGESTING SOME RISK OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. WE
CHOSE TO WITHHOLD THAT FROM THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT WITH WEAK
VERTICAL MOTION IN THAT LAYER PER MODEL GUIDANCE. MOREOVER...THE
PRECIPITATION-TYPE ALGORITHM OUTPUT FROM THE 12 UTC GLOBAL MODEL
OUTPUT AND MORE RECENT HRRR AND RAP GUIDANCE SUPPORTS LIGHT SNOW
AS THE PRIMARY TYPE WITH ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THAT WILL REQUIRE
MONITORING THOUGH.
ON TUESDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO EASTERN ND AND WILL
BRING A COLDER DAY TO THE AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO
THE WEST ACROSS MT THOUGH AND THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE ALL SUGGESTS A
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN ND DURING THE DAY AND
INTO CENTRAL ND BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WOULD BE ANOTHER
LIGHT QPF EVENT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
ACTIVE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS SLIDING THROUGH WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...APPROXIMATELY ONE EVERY 24HR TO 48HR. WE
ARE LIKELY TO SEE A COMBINATION OR RAIN...SNOW...AND/OR LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE AT TIMES WITH THESE SYSTEMS. SUCCESSIVE WARM AIR
ADVECTION/PRECIPITATION EVENTS WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND LATER IN THE WEEK. THE NAEFS 850T-500T SHOWS A
FAIRLY STRONG THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTING OVER NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY.
850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +10C WILL BE COMMON RESULTING IN SURFACE
HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...FIRST SHORTWAVE IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD EMBEDDED WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE FROM
WITH A SURFACE LOW REFLECTED IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA SHIFTING INTO
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER...STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWN TO
CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BY THE LAST SEVERAL
RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. A MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WITH
THAT WAVE...AND STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON ITS BACK SIDE IF THE
12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF ARE RIGHT WITH 850-MB WINDS UP TO 55 KT FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
FINALLY...THERE ARE HINTS OF ONE MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE ON
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...SUPPORTIVE OF MORE LOW POPS IN THAT PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATER
TUESDAY. LOOK FOR LOWERING CIGS WITH TIME AS MVFR AND IFR CIGS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE MAINLY AT KBIS UNTIL
AROUND 10Z OR SO...BUT VFR VSBYS EXPECTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
ICE RESTRICTIONS IN THE CHANNEL AND SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM LOCAL
RUNOFF DUE TO RECENT SNOWMELT HAS CAUSED THE MISSOURI RIVER TO
RISE IN THE BISMARCK/MANDAN AREA. WE ARE MONITORING THE SITUATION
CLOSELY AND ARE PROVIDING INFORMATION IN A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK ON
OUR WEB PAGE. RIGHT NOW THE MAIN MESSAGE WE ARE CONVEYING IS THAT
THERE WILL BE SHARP FLUCTUATIONS...WITH RAPID RISES FOLLOWED BY
LOWER LEVELS...UNTIL THE ICE IS NATURALLY REMOVED BY MIDWEEK.
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...KS/CJS
AVIATION...JV
HYDROLOGY...CJS/KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1250 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
TONIGHT...MOVING NORTHEAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA BY TUESDAY. RAIN AND
SNOW ARE EXPECTED FOR THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING. A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. AFTER THAT...GRADUAL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP BY THE END OF
THE WEEK...WITH WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY A COUPLE OF COUNTIES TO THE
NW...WAYNE COUNTY INDIANA AND MIAMI COUNTY OHIO...BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.
FARTHER S AND E INTO THE PCPN SHIELD...THE RAIN HAS BEGUN TO
CHANGE TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL OHIO. LATEST HRRR AND
EARLIER RAP RUNS WERE KEEPING THE BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD A
LITTLE FARTHER E. THEREFORE TIGHTENED THE GRADIENT SOME MORE
ACROSS THE FA. DRIED OUT PARTS OF THE MIAMI AND WHITEWATER VALLEY
AND DIDNT CARRY ANY ACCUMULATING POPS IN SE INDIANA...BUT CANT
RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES. DIDNT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE SNOW
TOTALS IN THE EAST.
STILL EXPECT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S BY
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODEL TREND TOWARD A SOUTHERLY TRACK FOR THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
ON TUESDAY HAS CONTINUED. THOUGH GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS STILL SUGGEST
PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHERN ILN COUNTIES...CMC/ECMWF PROJECTIONS
ARE ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY. WILL KEEP SOME LOW-END POPS (WITH A
CHANCE OF EITHER RAIN OR SNOW BASED ON TEMPERATURE)...WHILE
ACKNOWLEDGING THAT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS MAY VERY WELL BE ZERO OR
JUST A TRACE.
THERE ARE STILL SIGNS OF A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BUT AS CAN BE THE CASE WITH
WEAK AND MOISTURE-LACKING SYSTEMS LIKE THIS...MODEL AGREEMENT ON
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE QPF RESPONSE IS NOT GREAT. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO EVEN FOLLOW THE PLACEMENT OF THE WAVE...AND THE 500MB
WIND MAX THAT ACCOMPANIES IT. TRYING TO FOLLOW THIS FEATURE AS
BEST AS POSSIBLE...IT APPEARS A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IS STILL WARRANTED. ACCUMULATIONS...IF
ANY...SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT. FLURRIES MIGHT END UP POSSIBLE JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 30S. MIN TEMPS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE MONDAY NIGHT /
TUESDAY MORNING WEATHER SYSTEM. BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL BY A FEW MORE DEGREES FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA SOUTHWEST INTO THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION...SO THERE WILL BE A
GRADIENT IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF
THE GOING FORECAST AND THE 12Z ECMWF AS THIS BLEND SEEMS TO BE THE
BEST SOLUTION. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ...HAVE SIDED WITH THE 12Z
ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE WITH THE NEXT FRONT TO APPROACH AND THEN MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. MID LEVEL TROUGH IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN AND
ACTUALLY SHEARS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS POSITION IS
NOT GOOD FOR DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT FORM THE GULF DESPITE AN
INCREASING WARM...SOUTHERLY FLOW...SO HAVE LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING..THEN SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES AND THEN LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA BY FRIDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM SECTOR ON FRIDAY WILL WARM INTO
THE 50S REGION WIDE...WITH A 60 DEGREE VALUE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. CAA IS WEAK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...SO HIGHS WILL BE
MILD...IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN.
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH...TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION. IT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MILD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY SOME
COOLING ON MONDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THIS
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
TAF PERIOD. SNOW IMPACTING KCMH/KLCK AND KILN WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST AND END BEFORE 12Z. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER LOW
VISIBILITIES IN FOG TO THE WEST OF THOSE TERMINALS WILL MOVE IN
BEHIND THE SNOW. BUT LOW CEILINGS WILL PERSIST. UNCERTAINTIES FROM
KDAY TO KCVG/KLUK REGARD WHEN VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE.
CONDITIONS TO THE WEST ARE NOT AS LOW AND IT APPEARS THAT THIS MAY
SPREAD IN AS STORM TO THE EAST MOVES OFF. SO HAVE BROUGHT
VISIBILITIES UP TO 1SM AROUND 09Z ALTHOUGH WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
BEYOND 12Z VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKER THAN CEILINGS AREA
WIDE. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND THEN
LIFT TO MVFR. LOW CLOUDS MAY SCATTER LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY WITH IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
OHZ026-035-042>046-051>054-060>062-070-071-077.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
OHZ046-055-056-063>065-073-074-079>082-088.
KY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
KYZ089>093.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
KYZ097>100.
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
INZ050-059-066-073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
1124 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
.AVIATION...16/06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE S/SE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
OVERNIGHT. IN RESPONSE... SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE
W/NW THROUGH DAYBREAK AT ALL SITES. ALONG WITH THE WIND SHIFT...
MID TO HIGH STRATUS WILL INCREASE... ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON... WITH GUSTS UP TO
25KTS... ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AS THE
FRONT EXITS TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE PERIOD... NORTH WINDS WILL
RELAX THROUGH SUNSET... AND BEGIN TO VEER E/SE TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
JTK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016/
UPDATE...
TWEAKED CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. ADDED SPRINKLE
MENTION IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. INCREASED WINDS ON THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE A WINDY
DAY WITH VERY HIGH FIRE POTENTIAL AND NEAR RECORD WARMTH.
REST OF TONIGHT...THERE MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES BASED ON LATEST
RADARS DEPICTING VERY LIGHT ECHOES IN SOUTHERN KANSAS. MENTIONED
SPRINKLES IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A CHEROKEE TO
ENID TO STILLWATER LINE. OTHERWISE...RATHER QUIET WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT
AHEAD AND BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND 9 AM TUESDAY. CLOUDS WERE TWEAKED
BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND HRRR CEILING MODEL OUTPUT.
FORECAST LOWS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE...EXCEPT WERE LOWERED A FEW
DEGREES SOUTHEAST OF I-44.
AS FOR THURSDAY...INCREASED WINDS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...CLOSER
TO CONSMOS BLEND. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY.
WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WILL BE VERY HIGH DUE TO THE DRY
CONDITIONS...ABUNDANT FUELS...AND NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES.
SURFACE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN UNCERTAIN AND MAY NOT BE TOO LOW
BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...MODELS GENERALLY BEEN
TOO HIGH WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND TOO SHALLOW WITH VERTICAL
MIXING OVER THE PAST WEEK OR TWO DUE TO THE RECENT DRY SPELL. WILL
CLOSELY MONITOR THE WILDFIRE AND WIND POTENTIAL ON THIS DAY.
MBS/JTK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016/
AVIATION...16/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE PASSAGE
OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD
WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT FROM THE W/NW TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE FIRST THREE TO SIX HOURS... BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND INCREASING. GUSTY WINDS WILL
EXIST THROUGH THE MORNING AND MIDDAY AT MOST SITES... WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KTS LIKELY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION... SLOWLY CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY.
JTK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016/
DISCUSSION...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY EARLY TUESDAY...AND WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REST OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS BY MID AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
ESSENTIALLY DELAY A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND THAT WILL BEGIN
WEDNESDAY.
BY LATE WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE
THURSDAY. RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...AS A
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. GULF MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BUT MUCH DRIER
AIR OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL MIX INTO FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 80S.
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN RESULT WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHERLY
WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS. A STRONGER FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 40 65 36 71 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 40 68 38 74 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 41 72 39 77 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 37 64 34 73 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 38 62 33 69 / 10 0 0 0
DURANT OK 40 70 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17/04/04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
318 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ELONGATED SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL
SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST AND TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA LATE THIS MORNING. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A
PROLONGED MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THAT
WILL END AS RAIN IN MOST PLACES DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE ON
THURSDAY...THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC TEMPS CONTINUE TO LAG /BY SEVERAL DEG F/ THE WELL-ADVERTISED
MULTI-MODEL WARMUP THAT WOULD OTHERWISE CHANGE THE PRECIP OVER TO
RAIN FROM SE TO NW ACROSS THE CWA EARLY TODAY. 06Z RAP DOES WARM
UP THE NEAR SFC LAYER TEMPS AT ABOUT 1.5F/HR FROM NOW THROUGH
14Z...WHICH LEADS TO A CHANGEOVER FROM ICY TO MAINLY LIQUID PRECIP
BETWEEN 12-13Z TODAY. POCKETS OF FZRA AND PL WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO LATE THIS MORNING...WHICH MAY MEAN EXTENDING THE CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER FLAGS ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES BY UP TO 2-3 HOURS.
COASTAL FRONT AND MILD AIR IN THE 40S TO ITS EAST /AND EAST OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND DELAWARE RIVER AT 0730Z/ MAY PUSH SOME MILDER
AIR INTO OUR FAR SE ZONES. HOWEVER...WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOUTH TO SE FLOW PRECEDING THE LOW...IT/S
DOUBTFUL THAT THE SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING AIR WILL BE ABLE TO GET
SCOURED OUT OF THE CENTRAL MTNS THIS MORNING.
MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THE WINTER STORM WARNING FURTHER NORTH BY 2-3
LAYERS OF COUNTIES WITH THE 4 AM UPDATE...BASED ON PRECIP RATES
OF 0.10-0.15 WHERE FZRA IS OCCURRING. WILL BE EVALUATING THIS
ASPECT OF THE FCST VERY CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISC...
HAVE CHANGED THE SRN TIER OVER TO A WINTER STORM WARNING WITH
HEAVY EMPHASIS ON ICE FROM FREEZING RAIN. CHANGEOVER TO PLAIN RAIN
STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEAR SUNRISE FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA. IT
SHOULD TURN OVER A LITTLE EARLIER IN THE SE AND ON THE EDGES OF
THE FAR E AND FAR W.
630 PM UPDATE...
SLEET WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SERN 3 COS...WITH FZRA JUST ACROSS
THE MD BORDER. CHANGEOVER IS HAPPENING RIGHT ON SCHEDULE AND AS
EXPECTED. ONE WORRY IS THAT THE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE SEEN ALL THE
WAY INTO CENT NORTH CAROLINA WHILE THE FCST FROM ALL MDLS - ESP
RAP/HRRR - ARE MORE EASTERLY/SERLY. THIS SEEMS TO BE A SIGN THAT
CAD COULD BE STRONGER THAN EXPECTED CURRENTLY. CONCERN IS THAT
SLEET/FZRA WILL LAST A FEW HOURS LONGER IN THE EAST. EARLIER
SHIFTS HAD BUMPED ICE NUMBERS UP AND ANOTHER SLIGHT TICK UPWARD IS
ON ORDER NOW TOO. NO REASON TO PANIC OR KNEEJERK WITH THE EVENT
JUST STARTING AND STRONG WAA UNDERWAY ALOFT. NO HEADLINE CHANGES
PLANNED WITH FIRST SURGE OF REAL MIXED PRECIP JUST INTO THE AREA
AT THIS HOUR. ANOTHER CONCERN IS FOR MINOR FLOODING. FOR MANY
SHIFTS WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF WAGGLE WEST
THEN EAST AND ALL THE WHILE STAYING CONSISTENT AT 1.5 TO 2 INCHES
TOTAL LIQUID. MOST RIVER POINTS DO NO SEEM IN DANGER OF
FLOODING...ESP IF THE SNOWPACK CAN ABSORB SOME OF THIS RAIN AS IT
FALLS...THUS DAMPENING/SLOWING THE RESPONSE ON THE WATERWAYS.
HOWEVER...THE NORMAL PLACES TO SEE RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS WILL CERTAINLY SEE THIS. IT IS DEFINITELY WORTH CONSIDERING
A FLOOD WATCH FOR PART OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO MULL THIS OVER
AND CONFAB WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS.
PREV...
LULL IN SNOWFALL COMING TO AN END SHORTLY. UPSTREAM PRECIPITATION
SHIELD EXPANDING FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND RACES
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE MAIN EVENT GETS GOING. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE RETURN OVERSPREADS THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING...AS STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LL JET FORMS OVR THE EASTERN
CONUS IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING UPPER TROF OVR THE MISS VALLEY.
EXPECT A PERIOD OF STEADIER/HEAVIER SNOW TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTN WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUM LIKELY BEFORE
WARMING ALOFT RESULTS IN CHANGEOVER TO MIXED PRECIP THIS EVENING.
NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINE CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER EARLIER
ADJUSTING ALIGNMENT OF EXISTING ADVISORIES OVERNIGHT (PATCHY
FREEZING RAIN LASTING LONGER OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
ALONG THE MD BORDER)...AND UPGRADING TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR
BEDFORD AND SOMERSET FOR COUNTY WIDE AVERAGE OF 0.25" OF ICE..
FLOOD WATCHES CONSIDERED BUT COLDER SOLUTIONS (AND EVEN COLDER BY
12Z ECMWF) PRECLUDE RAPID SNOWMELT...BUT RATHER ABSORPTION OF
RAINFALL INTO SNOWPACK LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE...INCLUDING A QUICK LOOK AT 12Z ECMWF...
ALL INDICATE A STEADY SOUTH OT NORTH TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO FZRA
AND EVENTUALLY RAIN OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA TONIGHT. BY 06-08ZZ
SNOW/MIX LINE SHOULD BE OVR THE NW MTNS. EXPECT FREEZING RAIN TO
LINGER LONGEST ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY CREST FROM
BEDFORD AND BLAIR COUNTIES NORTHWARD TO CLEARFIELD AND CENTRE
COUNTIES THROUGH 12Z TUE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKED AT THE GUIDANCE AND WPC MAPS.
CURRENT POPS...WEATHER...AND QPF LOOK GOOD FOR TUE.
SYSTEM IS IN 3 PHASES.
ONE BATCH OF SNOW MOVED ACROSS THE REGION EARLIER TODAY.
ANOTHER SMALL AREA JUST BRUSHING THE SE PART OF THE CWA
THE LAST FEW HRS.
WARM ADVECTION WILL DRIVE NEXT BATCH OF PCPN.
MODELS STILL SHOW THE UPPER LVL TROUGH GOING NEGATIVE
TILT ON TUE. FOR NOW...DID NOT ADD THUNDER TO THE FCST.
ALSO HELD OFF ANY FLOOD WATCHES FOR NOW.
HAVE TO WATCH FOR HEAVY...WET SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM.
MORE DETAILS BELOW.
BY DAWN TUESDAY...THERE REMAINS BROAD AGREEMENT AMONG
GUIDANCE THAT PTYPE WILL BE PLAIN RAIN OVER ALL OF CENTRAL PA
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WARREN AND POSSIBLY MCKEAN COUNTY. WINTER
STOR4M WARNING MAINTAINED FOR WARREN COUNTY WHERE 6-10 INCH AMTS
MOST LIKELY. 0C 850 ISOTHERM IN MOST MDL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MCKEAN
CO WILL LIKELY CHANGEOVER TO RAIN/FZRA...KEEPING AMTS JUST BLW 12
AND 24HR WARNING CRITERIA. IN GENERAL...ICE ACCUMS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE ADVISORY CATEGORY PER WPC GUIDANCE.
LOCALLY HVY RAIN...COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT WILL POSE A FLOODING
THREAT ACROSS EASTERN PA ON TUESDAY. LATEST RIVER ENSEMBLE OUTPUT
AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGEST MINOR FLOODING COULD BE A CONCERN. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO.
HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY AFTN...AS
ANOMALOUS LL JET/PWATS SHIFT EAST. HOWEVER...POTENT MID LVL
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE THRU THE AREA WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE AFTN ESP ACROSS THE W MTNS. MDL SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT A FEW ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUM ACROSS WARREN AND
POSSIBLY MCKEAN COS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS OF TUESDAY.
PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA THAT BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR EAST OF SFC
LOW SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS AOA 50F TUESDAY...WHILE THE NW MTNS
PROBABLY BARELY GET ABV FREEZING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOOKING A SW FLOW OF MILD AND DRY AIR OFF THE HIGH PLAINS
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS AIRMASS...SO DID CUT BACK ON
POPS WHERE POSSIBLE.
COLDER AIR TRYS TO WORK BACK IN AFTER NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ELONGATED SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL
SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST AND TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA LATE THIS MORNING. UNTIL THEN...WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS...LLWS AND ICING POTENTIAL WILL IMPACT AVIATION.
POTENT SOUTHERLY 60KT LLJET WILL SWING THROUGH OVER NEXT
6-12HRS...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING RAPIDLY BETWEEN 1000-3000FT.
STRONGEST SHEAR WILL BE OVER SE HALF OF CWA.
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE AREWIDE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS IMPACTS FROM WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES. TREND THROUGH SUNRISE WILL BE FOR FREEZING RAIN TO
BECOME MORE SCATTERED OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY...BUT ANOTHER WAVE
SLIDES THROUGH FROM 12-18Z BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THERE. ONGOING FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THAT PERIOD IN THE CENTRAL AND NW MTNS. WITH
WARMER TEMPS SLIDING IN FROM THE SE...PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO
AND END AS RAIN IN MOST PLACES DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. BUT ICING WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE THROUGH THEN.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN
MTNS AND SE WITH A RETURN TO VFR. THIS SPREADS INTO THE NE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. BUT RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN AS FLOW TURNS TO THE NW BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM.
ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE SLIDES THROUGH ON WED...KEEPING RESTRICTIONS
IN PLACE OVER THE WEST. THEY MAY SPILL INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS FOR A
TIME...BUT OTHERWISE CENTRAL AND SE WILL REMAIN VFR.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE ON THURSDAY...THEN LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WED...ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES THROUGH KEEPING RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE
OVER THE WEST /AND POSS CENTRAL/ ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
SNOW.
THU...MAINLY VFR.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. PERHAPS A RAIN SHOWER...MAINLY LATE.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005-
006-010>012-017-018-024-037-041-042.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ033>036-056>059-063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ019-
025>028-045-046-049>053.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
241 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ELONGATED SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL
SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST AND TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA LATE THIS MORNING. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A
PROLONGED MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THAT
WILL END AS RAIN IN MOST PLACES DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE ON
THURSDAY...THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC TEMPS CONTINUE TO LAG /BY SEVERAL DEG F/ THE WELL-ADVERTISED
MULTI-MODEL WARMUP THAT WOULD OTHERWISE CHANGE THE PRECIP OVER TO
RAIN FROM SE TO NW ACROSS THE CWA EARLY TODAY. 06Z RAP DOES WARM
UP THE NEAR SFC LAYER TEMPS AT ABOUT 1.5F/HR FROM NOW THROUGH
14Z...WHICH LEADS TO A CHANGEOVER FROM ICY TO MAINLY LIQUID PRECIP
BETWEEN 12-13Z TODAY. POCKETS OF FZRA AND PL WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO LATE THIS MORNING...WHICH MAY MEAN EXTENDING THE CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER FLAGS ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES BY UP TO 2-3 HOURS.
COASTAL FRONT AND MILD AIR IN THE 40S TO ITS EAST /AND EAST OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND DELAWARE RIVER AT 0730Z/ MAY PUSH SOME MILDER
AIR INTO OUR FAR SE ZONES. HOWEVER...WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOUTH TO SE FLOW PRECEDING THE LOW...IT/S
DOUBTFUL THAT THE SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING AIR WILL BE ABLE TO GET
SCOURED OUT OF THE CENTRAL MTNS THIS MORNING.
MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THE WINTER STORM WARNING FURTHER NORTH BY 2-3
LAYERS OF COUNTIES WITH THE 4 AM UPDATE...BASED ON PRECIP RATES
OF 0.10-0.15 WHERE FZRA IS OCCURRING. WILL BE EVALUATING THIS
ASPECT OF THE FCST VERY CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISC...
HAVE CHANGED THE SRN TIER OVER TO A WINTER STORM WARNING WITH
HEAVY EMPHASIS ON ICE FROM FREEZING RAIN. CHANGEOVER TO PLAIN RAIN
STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEAR SUNRISE FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA. IT
SHOULD TURN OVER A LITTLE EARLIER IN THE SE AND ON THE EDGES OF
THE FAR E AND FAR W.
630 PM UPDATE...
SLEET WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SERN 3 COS...WITH FZRA JUST ACROSS
THE MD BORDER. CHANGEOVER IS HAPPENING RIGHT ON SCHEDULE AND AS
EXPECTED. ONE WORRY IS THAT THE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE SEEN ALL THE
WAY INTO CENT NORTH CAROLINA WHILE THE FCST FROM ALL MDLS - ESP
RAP/HRRR - ARE MORE EASTERLY/SERLY. THIS SEEMS TO BE A SIGN THAT
CAD COULD BE STRONGER THAN EXPECTED CURRENTLY. CONCERN IS THAT
SLEET/FZRA WILL LAST A FEW HOURS LONGER IN THE EAST. EARLIER
SHIFTS HAD BUMPED ICE NUMBERS UP AND ANOTHER SLIGHT TICK UPWARD IS
ON ORDER NOW TOO. NO REASON TO PANIC OR KNEEJERK WITH THE EVENT
JUST STARTING AND STRONG WAA UNDERWAY ALOFT. NO HEADLINE CHANGES
PLANNED WITH FIRST SURGE OF REAL MIXED PRECIP JUST INTO THE AREA
AT THIS HOUR. ANOTHER CONCERN IS FOR MINOR FLOODING. FOR MANY
SHIFTS WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF WAGGLE WEST
THEN EAST AND ALL THE WHILE STAYING CONSISTENT AT 1.5 TO 2 INCHES
TOTAL LIQUID. MOST RIVER POINTS DO NO SEEM IN DANGER OF
FLOODING...ESP IF THE SNOWPACK CAN ABSORB SOME OF THIS RAIN AS IT
FALLS...THUS DAMPENING/SLOWING THE RESPONSE ON THE WATERWAYS.
HOWEVER...THE NORMAL PLACES TO SEE RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS WILL CERTAINLY SEE THIS. IT IS DEFINITELY WORTH CONSIDERING
A FLOOD WATCH FOR PART OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO MULL THIS OVER
AND CONFAB WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS.
PREV...
LULL IN SNOWFALL COMING TO AN END SHORTLY. UPSTREAM PRECIPITATION
SHIELD EXPANDING FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND RACES
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE MAIN EVENT GETS GOING. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE RETURN OVERSPREADS THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING...AS STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LL JET FORMS OVR THE EASTERN
CONUS IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING UPPER TROF OVR THE MISS VALLEY.
EXPECT A PERIOD OF STEADIER/HEAVIER SNOW TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTN WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUM LIKELY BEFORE
WARMING ALOFT RESULTS IN CHANGEOVER TO MIXED PRECIP THIS EVENING.
NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINE CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER EARLIER
ADJUSTING ALIGNMENT OF EXISTING ADVISORIES OVERNIGHT (PATCHY
FREEZING RAIN LASTING LONGER OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
ALONG THE MD BORDER)...AND UPGRADING TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR
BEDFORD AND SOMERSET FOR COUNTY WIDE AVERAGE OF 0.25" OF ICE..
FLOOD WATCHES CONSIDERED BUT COLDER SOLUTIONS (AND EVEN COLDER BY
12Z ECMWF) PRECLUDE RAPID SNOWMELT...BUT RATHER ABSORPTION OF
RAINFALL INTO SNOWPACK LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE...INCLUDING A QUICK LOOK AT 12Z ECMWF...
ALL INDICATE A STEADY SOUTH OT NORTH TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO FZRA
AND EVENTUALLY RAIN OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA TONIGHT. BY 06-08ZZ
SNOW/MIX LINE SHOULD BE OVR THE NW MTNS. EXPECT FREEZING RAIN TO
LINGER LONGEST ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY CREST FROM
BEDFORD AND BLAIR COUNTIES NORTHWARD TO CLEARFIELD AND CENTRE
COUNTIES THROUGH 12Z TUE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKED AT THE GUIDANCE AND WPC MAPS.
CURRENT POPS...WEATHER...AND QPF LOOK GOOD FOR TUE.
SYSTEM IS IN 3 PHASES.
ONE BATCH OF SNOW MOVED ACROSS THE REGION EARLIER TODAY.
ANOTHER SMALL AREA JUST BRUSHING THE SE PART OF THE CWA
THE LAST FEW HRS.
WARM ADVECTION WILL DRIVE NEXT BATCH OF PCPN.
MODELS STILL SHOW THE UPPER LVL TROUGH GOING NEGATIVE
TILT ON TUE. FOR NOW...DID NOT ADD THUNDER TO THE FCST.
ALSO HELD OFF ANY FLOOD WATCHES FOR NOW.
HAVE TO WATCH FOR HEAVY...WET SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM.
MORE DETAILS BELOW.
BY DAWN TUESDAY...THERE REMAINS BROAD AGREEMENT AMONG
GUIDANCE THAT PTYPE WILL BE PLAIN RAIN OVER ALL OF CENTRAL PA
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WARREN AND POSSIBLY MCKEAN COUNTY. WINTER
STOR4M WARNING MAINTAINED FOR WARREN COUNTY WHERE 6-10 INCH AMTS
MOST LIKELY. 0C 850 ISOTHERM IN MOST MDL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MCKEAN
CO WILL LIKELY CHANGEOVER TO RAIN/FZRA...KEEPING AMTS JUST BLW 12
AND 24HR WARNING CRITERIA. IN GENERAL...ICE ACCUMS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE ADVISORY CATEGORY PER WPC GUIDANCE.
LOCALLY HVY RAIN...COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT WILL POSE A FLOODING
THREAT ACROSS EASTERN PA ON TUESDAY. LATEST RIVER ENSEMBLE OUTPUT
AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGEST MINOR FLOODING COULD BE A CONCERN. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO.
HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY AFTN...AS
ANOMALOUS LL JET/PWATS SHIFT EAST. HOWEVER...POTENT MID LVL
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE THRU THE AREA WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE AFTN ESP ACROSS THE W MTNS. MDL SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT A FEW ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUM ACROSS WARREN AND
POSSIBLY MCKEAN COS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS OF TUESDAY.
PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA THAT BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR EAST OF SFC
LOW SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS AOA 50F TUESDAY...WHILE THE NW MTNS
PROBABLY BARELY GET ABV FREEZING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOOKING A SW FLOW OF MILD AND DRY AIR OFF THE HIGH PLAINS
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS AIRMASS...SO DID CUT BACK ON
POPS WHERE POSSIBLE.
COLDER AIR TRYS TO WORK BACK IN AFTER NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST RADAR HAS SNOW THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA WITH
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF AND INTO
CENTRAL PA. EXPECT TAF SITES TO BE IFR AND LOWER. CURRENTLY UNF
AND IPT ARE MVFR IN THE FREEZING RAIN WITH PERIODS OF IFR...THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THEY TRANSITION. IFR
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION FROM WINTRY MIX
TO RAIN 09Z TO 14Z...WITH SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUESDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH VFR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE OTHER FORECAST ISSUE IS THE WIND SHEAR ALOFT AT ALL TAF SITES
OUTSIDE OF BFD. EXPECT UPWARDS OF 50KTS OF SHEAR BETWEEN 07Z TO
14Z AS THE GRADIENT PASSES.
OUTLOOK...
WED...ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES THROUGH KEEPING RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE
ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW...ESP OVER THE WEST.
THU...MAINLY VFR.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. PERHAPS A RAIN SHOWER...MAINLY LATE.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005-
006-010>012-017-018-024-037-041-042.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ033>036-056>059-063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ019-
025>028-045-046-049>053.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1057 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
.DISCUSSION...POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY
MORNING REMAINS OVER COASTAL PLAINS/VCT CROSSROADS...THOUGH COULD
REACH FURTHER WEST TOWARDS LRD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH
GENERALLY BECOME MORE EASTERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST
APPEARS WELL ON TRACK AT THIS TIME...AND ONLY A FEW TWEAKS WERE
MADE TO HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON OBS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016/
DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.
AVIATION...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ALONG THE COAST.
THE SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO
THE NORTH TONIGHT. DEWPOINT TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S ALONG A
CORPUS NAS TO BAFFIN BAY LINE. WINDS WILL VEER NORTHEAST AND EAST
IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HI-RES NMM AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW DENSE
FOG AS A POSSIBILITY FROM NGP TO NQI TO HBV. ALI AND CRP WILL BE
ON THE BORDER ON WHETHER THIS HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
REACH THIS AREA FOR DENSE FOG TO FORM. MOS GUIDANCE DEPICTS HIGHER
PROBABILITY OF FOG WHILE THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRIER AIR
SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION. FOR NOW...WILL SHOW FOG WITH MVFR
VSBYS AT ALI AND CRP FROM 09-10Z THROUGH 15Z WITH TEMPO FOR IFR
VSBYS. RAP AND HI-RES NMM SHOW DENSE FOG OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS MAY
ADVECT NORTHWEST TOWARD LAREDO AROUND DAYBREAK. KEPT TEMPO GROUP
FOR 3SM VSBY FROM 12-16Z. VICTORIA AREA SHOULD BE IN REGION OF
LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BUT COULD SEE FOG FORM BEFORE
DAYBREAK. PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FROM 09-13Z FOR MVFR VSBYS AT VCT.
VFR/CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AFTER 16Z. HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
COASTAL PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING AND EXPECT FOG/MVFR VSBYS TO OCCUR
FOR ALI/CRP/VCT BY 03-04Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 82 49 83 55 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 78 45 80 50 80 / 10 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 83 51 85 57 88 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALICE 84 47 85 52 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 76 56 77 55 73 / 10 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 84 47 83 51 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 83 47 82 51 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 78 58 77 60 74 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LK/84...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1050 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ALONG THE COAST.
THE SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO
THE NORTH TONIGHT. DEWPOINT TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S ALONG A
CORPUS NAS TO BAFFIN BAY LINE. WINDS WILL VEER NORTHEAST AND EAST
IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HI-RES NMM AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW DENSE
FOG AS A POSSIBILITY FROM NGP TO NQI TO HBV. ALI AND CRP WILL BE
ON THE BORDER ON WHETHER THIS HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
REACH THIS AREA FOR DENSE FOG TO FORM. MOS GUIDANCE DEPICTS HIGHER
PROBABILITY OF FOG WHILE THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRIER AIR
SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION. FOR NOW...WILL SHOW FOG WITH MVFR
VSBYS AT ALI AND CRP FROM 09-10Z THROUGH 15Z WITH TEMPO FOR IFR
VSBYS. RAP AND HI-RES NMM SHOW DENSE FOG OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS MAY
ADVECT NORTHWEST TOWARD LAREDO AROUND DAYBREAK. KEPT TEMPO GROUP
FOR 3SM VSBY FROM 12-16Z. VICTORIA AREA SHOULD BE IN REGION OF
LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BUT COULD SEE FOG FORM BEFORE
DAYBREAK. PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FROM 09-13Z FOR MVFR VSBYS AT VCT.
VFR/CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AFTER 16Z. HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
COASTAL PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING AND EXPECT FOG/MVFR VSBYS TO OCCUR
FOR ALI/CRP/VCT BY 03-04Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 49 83 55 81 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 45 80 50 80 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 51 85 57 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALICE 47 85 52 83 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 56 77 55 73 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 47 83 51 86 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 47 82 51 82 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 58 77 60 74 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TMT/89...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1129 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
PRIMARY CONCERNS INVOLVE FOG AND SNOW CHANCES/AMOUNTS TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. 15.12Z MODEL SUITE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT AND
WILL FOLLOW A BLENDED SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH FOCUS FOR THE NEXT 6 TO
12 HOURS WILL BE ON THE LATEST RAP/HRRR OUTPUT.
15.20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A WEAK SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL MN AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN A COMPACT AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS
NOW MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MN. 15.20Z HRRR SHOWS THESE SHOWERS
MOVING EAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING AND THEN FALLING APART NEAR THE
MS RIVER. WITH SFC OBS UNDER THIS SNOW REPORTING VISIBILITY FROM 3
TO 5SM...A QUICK DUSTING IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.
BIGGER CONCERN THIS EVENING IS FOG POTENTIAL. WITH MOIST WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME OVER THE SNOWPACK AND RELATIVELY LIGHT NEAR
SURFACE FLOW...THINK THERE COULD BE A REPEAT FROM THIS MORNING
WITH RAPIDLY DEVELOPING FOG AFTER SUNSET. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE
IF THE LIMITED CLEARING AREA ACROSS CENTRAL MN CAN WORK ITS WAY
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND ALLOW FOR GREATER NOCTURNAL COOLING.
AREAS OF DENSE FOG A REAL POSSIBILITY...BUT TIMING/COVERAGE
UNCERTAIN AND SOMETHING TO WATCH THROUGHOUT THE EVENING FOR
POSSIBLE ADVISORY CONDITIONS. FOR NOW...WILL EXPAND PATCHY/AREAS
OF FOG FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG THAT
DOES DEVELOP IS NOT LIKELY TO DISSIPATE UNTIL SOMETIME TUESDAY
MORNING AT THE EARLIEST. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE WARM...
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S ABOVE ZERO.
15.12Z GLOBAL MODELS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT...SHOWING THE NEXT
SHORT-WAVE ALOFT FOR TONIGHT DIVING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BEST 500 TO 300 HPA POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS WAVE IS BETTER ALIGNED
ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY WHERE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE.
A SECONDARY WEAKER SHORT-WAVE/SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF REGION. HOWEVER...LIFT AND
MOISTURE ARE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS IN
PARTICULAR LACK ICE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WHEREAS THE GFS
SHOWS A DEEPER SATURATED LAYER. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE...BUT FOR NOW THINK THE NAM IS UNDER DOING
COLDER CLOUDS ALOFT AND WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION TYPE AS SNOW. IF
SNOW DOES DEVELOP WITHIN WEAK LIFT REGIME...ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR LESS REGION-WIDE.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL AGAIN HINGE ON CLOUD COVER...BUT SHOULD
RISE INTO THE LOWER 30S MOST AREAS PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS BROAD SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN. A SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR MASS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY/S COLD FRONT
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20S. HOWEVER...A MUCH DRIER
AIR MASS SHOULD LEND ITSELF TO SOME SUNSHINE FOR AT LEAST THE
LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION ENSUES
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY SO THAT BY 06Z FRIDAY...925 HPA TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM +3 TO +7 CELSIUS. ALTHOUGH DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER...
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. 15.12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THE GFS SURFACE
LOW TRACK IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. THE GFS IS ALSO MORE BULLISH ON
QPF MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE SYSTEM/S WARM SECTOR. STILL NEED
TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIXED FREEZING PRECIPITATION THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-94 THAT HAVE SUB-FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. DEGREE OF WARMTH ON FRIDAY A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN NOW
AS BOTH MODELS ALIGN THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ALONG THE MS RIVER BY
12Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OVERALL POST-FRONTAL THERMAL PROFILE
REMAINS WARM ENOUGH SO THAT PRECIPITATION FALLS AS RAIN. FOR
NOW...EXPECT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S WITH CONSENSUS 30 TO 60
POPS.
A DRY AND WARM SATURDAY GIVES WAY TO ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY AS A SHORT-WAVE DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA. TOO FAR OUT TO
PROVIDE MANY DETAILS...BUT PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE MAINLY
LIQUID. MONDAY DRIES OUT AND COOLS BACK DOWN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEPARTING WAVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
THROUGH MID MORNING TUESDAY...PLAN ON MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT
KRST WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED A KLSE. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TAF SITES
TUESDAY MORNING BRINGING A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW...AND POSSIBLY
SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. LOW STRATUS AND BR WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN WITH CEILINGS FALLING TO AROUND 400 FT AT KRST AND TO 800
FT AT KLSE. VISIBILITIES COULD FALL TO AROUND 1SM AT TIMES IN FOG
AND BR. LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR TUESDAY EVENING IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1105 PM MST MON FEB 15 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MST MON FEB 15 2016
WINDS HAVE BEEN ON THE STEADY DECLINE THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT MARCHES SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS...SO CANCELLED THE WIND
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE NON-WIND PRONE AREAS EARLIER. SNOTELS DO NOT
INDICATE THE MOUNTAINS ARE RECEIVING MUCH SNOW THIS EVENING...SO
WILL ALLOW THE SNOW ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON TIME. OTHERWISE...WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE THE BAND OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS STEADILY TREK SOUTH
THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 PM MST MON FEB 15 2016
WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND EVENT IS CURRENTLY PEAKING OVER MUCH
OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. MANY LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE
BEEN GUSTING TO 50-60 KTS SINCE MIDDAY. PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
STRONG LLVL GRADIENT. THE MODELS SHOW THE 850 MB CAG-CPR GRADIENT
ABOVE 70 METERS THROUGH 03Z..AND THEN DECREASING TO AROUND 60.
EXTENDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING TO EAST LARAMIE COUNTY AND ISSUED
A WIND ADVISORY FOR KIMBALL COUNTY THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS
WILL DECREASE BY 03-06Z AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS BEHIND
THE FROPA. WITH THE CAG-CPR GRADIENT REMAINING NEAR 60 THROUGH
TUES AFTN...DECIDED TO EXTEND THE HIGH WIND WARNING OVER THE WIND
PRONE AREAS THROUGH THAT TIME. THERE WILL BE A NOTABLE DECREASE
IN WINDS EARLY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THEN PRESSURE
FALLS OCCUR TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY LATE TUES
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY BE A MARGINAL EVENT WITH GUSTS TO 50-60
MPH.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM
DOUGLAS TO SCOTTSBLUFF. THE HRRR SHOWS BANDS OF SHOWERS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE EVENING OVER AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. THE GFS DOES SHOW WEAK FRONTOGENESIS AND
INSTABILITY...SO THIS MAKES SENSE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
OF THIS PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW BY LATER THIS EVENING. CURRENT
THINKING IS A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE FOUND IN THE SHOWERS ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND IMPACTS WILL BE LOW...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED BY THE EVENING SHIFT. THE NICEST DAY OF THE WEEK IS STILL
LOOKING LIKE WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD AND WINDS
WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM MST MON FEB 15 2016
MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS. THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOKS PARTICULARLY WINDY. BASED ON CURRENT
MODEL DATA...WIND SPEEDS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THAT OF
TODAY. ACTUALLY WINDS COULD BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN TODAY AND
MORE WIDESPREAD. STRONG WINDS MAY EVEN SPREAD INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE MAIN CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE...PARTICULARLY INTO THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW MAY OCCUR THURSDAY. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WIND PRONE PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MST MON FEB 15 2016
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. A BAND OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT KCYS AND
KLAR THROUGH ROUGHLY 08Z BEFORE DISSIPATING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
THE PRECIPITATION.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 403 PM MST MON FEB 15 2016
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IT WILL BE WINDY THROUGH MOST
OF THIS WEEK. AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS TO AROUND 25 PERCENT AND GUSTY WINDS
OCCUR.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR WYZ106-110-116-117.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RJM
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...ZF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1031 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED
BY A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATER THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY, BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE LATER FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY, PULLING A
WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN A COLD FRONT
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION AS OF 10 AM...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE HEAVIER
RAIN OVER EASTERN PA AND DELMARVA WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS A
STOUT INVERSION ALOFT WHICH WILL PROHIBIT STRONGER WINDS FROM
MIXING DOWN, GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN BANDS.
WE HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS, BRINGING THEM IN LINE
WITH CURRENT RADAR AND SHORT RANGE MODEL TRENDS. OTHERWISE,
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES, TIMING THE WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION, AS WELL AS MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOME SPECTACULAR TEMPERATURE CHANGES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY ENDS IN NEXT TIER OF ZONES AT 500 AM AND
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ENDS IN THE FAR NORTH AT 700 AM. LAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF HRRR ARE ADAMANT THAT AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION BY 600 AM, AND ON THEIR WAY TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WELL INTO THE 50S LATER
TODAY. THAT AGREES WELL WITH OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CURRENT
FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT SCENARIO.
PRECIPITATION IS EBBING FOR THE TIME BEING WITH JUST SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (IF ANYTHING) DURING MUCH OF THE EARLY TO MID MORNING
HOURS.
THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING A ROUND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG FORCING WILL BRING SOME
VERY STRONG WINDS INTO THE REGION JUST OFF THE SURFACE. THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THOSE WINDS, SO BE PREPARED
FOR SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS ALSO STILL POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE EXITING THE AREA VERY EARLY IN
THIS TIME PERIOD. DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER AND MODERATE WESTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. SUPERBLEND WAS USED FOR
THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND RESULTED IN ONLY MINOR
CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUIETER/DRIER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF THE AREA, AT LEAST FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. MORE PRECIPITATION COULD
RETURN FOR SOME OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT ALL THE RAIN
TUESDAY WILL BE WAY TO OUR NORTH, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA DURING THE DAY,
WHILE A SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. IT IS
POSSIBLE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES OF
OUR AREA, BUT MOST EVERYONE SHOULD REMAIN DRY. IF THE FRONT HOLDS
TOGETHER, IT WOULDN`T CROSS UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT, CENTERING ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY, THEN BEGINS TO
BUILD OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FRIDAY AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT, PULLING A WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT EARLY SATURDAY. THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A PASSING SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE TO CREATE SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPERATURES COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A WINTRY
MIX TO OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME
FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY FOLLOW DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA, BUT ANY
PRECIPITATION MAY ACTUALLY CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE DAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. BUT THIS MAY NOT LAST LONG. THERE IS INDICATION THAT
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD AFFECT THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF, WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING A LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND MOVING IT
ACROSS THE AREA. THE LATEST ECMWF THE LOW TO OUR WEST AND PASSES IT
NORTH OF THE AREA. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THIS DEVELOPING LOW, IT
IS POSSIBLE ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION COULD AFFECT THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
WE ALSO EXPECT SOME FOG...PARTICULARLY AT ABE, RDG, AND ACY.
SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE
BEFORE VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED FOR THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET NEAR 65 KNOTS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
TONIGHT...GENERALLY MVFR.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE NORTH
MAY AFFECT THE AREA AND RESULT IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY-GENERALLY VFR. SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY.GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS 20-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE AS VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP IN
RESPONSE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW TRACKING INLAND UP
THE EAST COAST.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND MIDDAY TODAY AS A LINE OF
HEAVIER RAIN AND POSSIBLY EMBEDDED THUNDER CROSSES THE COASTAL
WATERS...W/ LOCALIZED STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LINE.
OVERALL...THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A HIGH END GALE EVENT. SEAS ON
THE ATLC WATERS SHOULD RISE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 13 FT.
AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE WATERS LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT,
THERE SHOULD AGAIN BE GALE FORCE GUSTS, AS WINDS VEER FROM SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST OVERNIGHT AND DIMIMISH TO
SUB-GALE LEVELS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS MAY REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS COULD GUST 20-25 KNOTS AS WELL.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...WINDS LIKELY TO INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS, WITH POSSIBLE NEAR GALE FORCE GUSTS FRIDAY
NIGHT SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THERE STILL REMAINS THE THREAT FOR SOME URBANIZED AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING AT TIMES LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE HEAVY RAIN. WHERE STORM DRAINS ARE BLOCKED BY
SNOW, ICE AND DEBRIS, POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL, POSSIBLY UP TO TWO
INCHES IN SOME AREAS, FALLING ON TOP OF THE SNOW COULD MAKE FOR
EFFICIENT RUNOFF AND CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. AREAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD MAY NOT GET AS MUCH RAIN, ONLY A HALF INCH TO ONE
INCH.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SHARP RISES ON OUR LOCAL CREEKS, STEAMS, AND
RIVERS. HOWEVER, NONE OF THE FORECAST RIVER GAUGES ARE EXPECTED TO
GET TO FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY SHOULD PUSH
WATER UP CHESAPEAKE BAY AND UP DELAWARE BAY AND INTO THE TIDAL
DELAWARE RIVER. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTS THAT NO FLOODING WILL OCCUR.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450>453.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431-454-
455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...FRANCK
SHORT TERM...SZATKOWSKI
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/ROBERTSON/FRANCK
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/ROBERTSON/FRANCK
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
657 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED
BY A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATER THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY, BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE LATER FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY, PULLING A
WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN A COLD FRONT
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING SO ALL THE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINE PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. AFTER A BREAK IN
THE PRECIPITATION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, THE NEXT ROUND
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS OFF TO OUR WEST AND WILL BE IMPACTING
OUR REGION LATER THIS MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOME SPECTACULAR TEMPERATURE CHANGES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY ENDS IN NEXT TIER OF ZONES AT 500 AM AND
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ENDS IN THE FAR NORTH AT 700 AM. LAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF HRRR ARE ADAMANT THAT AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION BY 600 AM, AND ON THEIR WAY TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WELL INTO THE 50S LATER
TODAY. THAT AGREES WELL WITH OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CURRENT
FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT SCENARIO.
PRECIPITATION IS EBBING FOR THE TIME BEING WITH JUST SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (IF ANYTHING) DURING MUCH OF THE EARLY TO MID MORNING
HOURS.
THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING A ROUND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG FORCING WILL BRING SOME
VERY STRONG WINDS INTO THE REGION JUST OFF THE SURFACE. THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THOSE WINDS, SO BE PREPARED
FOR SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS ALSO STILL POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE EXITING THE AREA VERY EARLY IN
THIS TIME PERIOD. DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER AND MODERATE WESTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. SUPERBLEND WAS USED FOR
THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND RESULTED IN ONLY MINOR
CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUIETER/DRIER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF THE AREA, AT LEAST FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. MORE PRECIPITATION COULD
RETURN FOR SOME OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT ALL THE RAIN
TUESDAY WILL BE WAY TO OUR NORTH, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA DURING THE DAY,
WHILE A SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. IT IS
POSSIBLE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES OF
OUR AREA, BUT MOST EVERYONE SHOULD REMAIN DRY. IF THE FRONT HOLDS
TOGETHER, IT WOULDN`T CROSS UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT, CENTERING ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY, THEN BEGINS TO
BUILD OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FRIDAY AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT, PULLING A WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT EARLY SATURDAY. THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A PASSING SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE TO CREATE SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPERATURES COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A WINTRY
MIX TO OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME
FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY FOLLOW DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA, BUT ANY
PRECIPITATION MAY ACTUALLY CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE DAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. BUT THIS MAY NOT LAST LONG. THERE IS INDICATION THAT
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD AFFECT THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF, WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING A LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND MOVING IT
ACROSS THE AREA. THE LATEST ECMWF THE LOW TO OUR WEST AND PASSES IT
NORTH OF THE AREA. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THIS DEVELOPING LOW, IT
IS POSSIBLE ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION COULD AFFECT THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ABE AND RDG IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
UNTIL AROUND 12Z. OTHERWISE GENERALLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TODAY.
PERIODS OF RAIN WHICH WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY STARTING LATE THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST WINDS MOSTLY 10-15 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY GUSTY,
TURNING SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED
FOR AWHILE AS A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET NEAR 65 KNOTS MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA.
TONIGHT...GENERALLY MVFR.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE NORTH
MAY AFFECT THE AREA AND RESULT IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY-GENERALLY VFR. SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY.GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS 20-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM SECTION OF THE
MARINE FORECAST. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE AS VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
TRACKING INLAND UP THE EAST COAST. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AROUND MIDDAY TODAY. EXPECTED TO BE A HIGH END GALE EVENT. A FEW
GUSTS TO STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE.
SUBSEQUENTLY, AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE WATERS LATE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT, THERE SHOULD AGAIN BE GALE FORCE GUSTS.
SEAS ON THE ATLC WATERS SHOULD RISE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 13 FT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS MAY
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS COULD GUST 20-25 KNOTS AS WELL.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...WINDS LIKELY TO INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS, WITH POSSIBLE NEAR GALE FORCE GUSTS FRIDAY
NIGHT SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THERE STILL REMAINS THE THREAT FOR SOME URBANIZED AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING AT TIMES LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE HEAVY RAIN. WHERE STORM DRAINS ARE BLOCKED BY
SNOW, ICE AND DEBRIS, POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL, POSSIBLY UP TO TWO
INCHES IN SOME AREAS, FALLING ON TOP OF THE SNOW COULD MAKE FOR
EFFICIENT RUNOFF AND CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. AREAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD MAY NOT GET AS MUCH RAIN, ONLY A HALF INCH TO ONE
INCH.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SHARP RISES ON OUR LOCAL CREEKS, STEAMS, AND
RIVERS. HOWEVER, NONE OF THE FORECAST RIVER GAUGES ARE EXPECTED TO
GET TO FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY SHOULD PUSH
WATER UP CHESAPEAKE BAY AND UP DELAWARE BAY AND INTO THE TIDAL
DELAWARE RIVER. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTS THAT NO FLOODING WILL OCCUR.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ450>453.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431-454-
455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...SZATKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...SZATKOWSKI
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
458 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
Next system slated to impact central Illinois is evident on 08z/2am
water vapor imagery over eastern Nebraska. Much like the wave that
passed by the area yesterday, this particular feature is digging
further southward than models had predicted. With the 500mb vort
max now progged to track from its current position over eastern
Nebraska to northeast Arkansas by 18z, the associated band of light
precip has been displaced southward. In fact, the HRRR and Rapid
Refresh suggest it will only graze the far S/SE KILX CWA today. As
a result, have trimmed PoPs considerably...with locations
along/north of a Bloomington to Paris line remaining dry. Highest
precip chances will be focused south of I-70 where likely PoPs are
warranted. Forecast soundings indicate only shallow boundary layer
moisture with a complete lack of ice crystals: therefore, think any
precip that occurs will be in liquid form. With surface temps
initially in the 20s and lower 30s, some light freezing rain may
occur as the precip arrives this morning...primarily along and
southwest of a Galesburg to Taylorville line. Icing will be
minimal, as temps are expected to climb above freezing by mid to
late morning. Fog will also be an issue this morning, although with
increasing mid clouds associated with the approaching wave, do not
think widespread dense fog will develop. Will therefore not be
issuing a Dense Fog Advisory at this time. Instead, a Special
Weather Statement addressing the low visibilities has been issued.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
A weak secondary wave will track across the southern Great Lakes
tonight, potentially bringing some very light snow or flurries to
the northern KILX CWA. Once this feature passes, cool and dry
weather will be on tap for Wednesday with high temperatures in the
middle to upper 30s.
After that, the long-advertised warming trend will finally arrive by
the end of the week. A deep upper trough coming onshore across the
Pacific Northwest will induce pronounced ridging downstream over the
central and eastern CONUS, resulting in much warmer weather. As the
pressure gradient tightens between a departing high and an
approaching frontal boundary, strong southerly winds will develop on
Thursday and Friday. Winds will gust to around 30mph Thursday
afternoon, then to between 35 and 40mph on Friday as the front
arrives. Thanks to rising upper heights, strong southerly winds,
and the return of some sunshine, high temperatures will soar into
the 60s by Friday.
Once the weak cold front passes, a mild Pacific-origin airmass will
prevail through the weekend with highs in the 50s for both Saturday
and Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
Areas of dense fog and low cigs will prevail over the forecast
area through the morning hours with only a gradual improvement
expected this afternoon. There still is the chance for a brief
period of very light snow or freezing rain at SPI in the 14z-17z
time frame with any precip after that falling in the form of
light rain as surface temperatures rise above freezing. LIFR to
VLIFR cigs will dominate into the early afternoon hours with
forecast soundings suggesting some improvement to low MVFR cigs
in the 20z-23z time frame. May see a few flurries this evening
across our northern TAF sites from PIA to CMI but coverage
appears to be too low to include in the TAFs this issuance.
Surface winds will not be much of a factor this forecast period
with a light southeast to east wind today with speeds of 10 kts
or less, with winds northwest tonight at 5 to 10 kts.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
600 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 558 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS NOW KEEP MY EXTREME SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
SLIGHTLY SUB FREEZING THROUGH MID MORNING AS THE FREEZING
RAIN...SNOW...RAIN MIX MOVES IN. SOME ICING IS LIKELY ON UNTREATED
ROADS EARLY TODAY...AND HAVE COORDINATED A SHORT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN MOST 3 COUNTIES TO COVER THIS EVENT.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
THE STORM OF RADICALLY DIFFERENT PATH FORECASTS IN THE
PAST FEW DAYS IN MODELS...IS FINALLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
MIDWEST THIS MORNING. AS OF 3 AM...THE LOW IS FOUND IN TWO
CENTERS...ONE IN SOUTHWEST IOWA...AND ANOTHER NEAR KANSAS CITY. THAT
STRUCTURE IS LIKELY THE SOURCE OF THE CONTINUATION OF VARIABLE MODEL
TRACKS AND EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM. OUR CWA HAS BEEN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE IN ILLINOIS OF A VERY NARROW RIDGE...ALLOWING FOR SOME
CLEAR SKIES...AND RESULTANT SHARP TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE 9 TO 15
RANGE OVER SNOW...AND PATCHY DENSE FOG TO GO ALONG WITH IT.
IOWA...UNDER CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS...IS HOLDING IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR THE MOST PART.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
TODAY IS GOING TO BE A CLOSE
CALL...WITH THE VORT AND NARROW BUT RATHER INTENSE WAA PCPN BRUSHING
MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA LINES...OR FROM CENTRAL IOWA TO CENTRAL
MISSOURI. THIS LEAVES MAINLY OUR SOUTHWEST AT RISK FOR MEASURABLE
SNOW...AND POSSIBLY RAIN SNOW MIX. OTHER LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY
NORTH WILL SEE SOME EVENTUAL SATURATION FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW. FOR
EVERYONE...IT WILL BE CLOUDY...AND SEASONAL DAY IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S...WE WILL MELT MORE SNOW
THAN ANYTHING THAT FALLS. TODAY WILL BE NET LOSS OF SNOW COVER.
FOG...CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THIS LIGHT CONVERGENT FLOW
TODAY...BUT FOR NOW...I WILL KEEP MENTION OF IT TO THE EARLY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST WHERE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
BEING REPORTED. IF...SNOW DOES ACCUMULATE IN THE SOUTHWEST...UP TO
AN INCH APPEARS TO BE THE BEST FIT FOR ACCUMULATIONS. IT IS JUST
TOO MILD TO PRODUCE FLUFFY RATIOS TODAY...AND WITH THE MAIN
FORCING SHIFTING SOUTH SO EARLY TODAY...THE MAIN EVENT SHOULD BE
OVER BY MID MORNING. I WILL KEEP SOME MENTION OF POPS GOING TO
EARLY EVENING THOUGH...AS THERE IS WEAK FORCING ALOFT COMBINING
WITH CONVERGENT LOW LEVELS. THAT MIGHT BE A QUESTION OF HIGH
POP/LOW QPF FOR THE NEXT SHIFT.
OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD KEEP THE CLOUD AROUND TONIGHT...WITH WEAK COLD
ADVECTION. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S APPEAR ON TRACK FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH.
ERVIN
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
FORECAST FOCUS ON BIG WARM-UP LATE IN THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COOL
DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
BIG WARM-UP AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES WITH THE AO/NAO GOING POSITIVE
AND THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL HAVE MELTED
BY THE TIME WE GET TO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WE
WILL SEE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO RECORDS WHICH ARE WELL INTO THE
60S TO 70. THE WARMTH WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING OVER 40 MPH IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS AS A STRONG
CYCLONE TRACKS ACROSS MN AND WI WITH MODELS DEPICTING 50+ KNOT WINDS
AT 850 MB. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS WELL NORTH OF
THE DVN CWA WHERE THE BETTER FORCING WILL BE LOCATED.
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO
THE 40S TO AROUND 50. NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES....DROPPING HIGHS DOWN INTO THE 30S.
HAASE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MAINLY SWEEP SOUTHWEST OF EASTERN IOWA
TODAY...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS...LIGHT FOG...AND
SCATTERED AREAS OF SNOW. THIS WILL MAINLY IMPACT CIGS THROUGH
TONIGHT...AS THEY VARY FROM 300 TO 800 FT THIS MORNING...THOUGH
SOME VFR POCKETS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS VARIABLE COMBINATION
SHOULD BECOME MORE STEADY DURING THE DAY. MVFR CLOUDS SHOULD
DOMINATE THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LIGHT FOG...AND SOME SNOW
WILL LOWER VISIBILITIES TO 2 TO 5 MILES THROUGH THE DAY. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MVFR POSSIBLY LIFTING TO VFR
WITH TIME.
ERVIN
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR VAN
BUREN.
IL...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
SCOTLAND.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ERVIN
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...ERVIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
614 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
Upper level northwesterly flow continues over the central CONUS this
morning. A fast moving shortwave trough embedded in the flow was
tracking southeast over Nebraska and Kansas into Missouri overnight.
This system had brought some scattered light rain showers and
sprinkles to portions of central Kansas around Hays earlier
tonight. A cool front had pushed through western Kansas with gusty
northwest winds behind it. Latest radar trends show the bulk of
this precipitation moving into eastern Kansas while lingering
precipitation echoes over the western part of the state continue
to dissipate.
For the rest of today, expect to see the gusty north winds continuing
for a while this morning but winds should diminish and become
light/variable by midday as surface high pressure moves into the
area. Some weak southerly return flow should develop out toward
the Colorado border as surface low pressure develops in the lee of
the Rockies. Temperatures will be a little cooler today with highs
ranging from the mid 50s around Hays to around 60 at Elkhart.
Southerly flow continues into tonight but another weak disturbance
could push the Colorado surface trough out into western Kansas
late tonight.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
An upper level ridge will move out of the western states over the
Plains by Wednesday evening. A strong shortwave trough will move
east on the heels of the ridge and move out over the northern and
central Plains Thursday evening. Temperatures will be warming
across western Kansas through midweek with highs on Thursday
warming well into the 80s over parts of southwest Kansas under
strong low level southwesterly downslope flow. As this shortwave
moves through, a cold front will push across western Kansas
Thursday night. Temperatures will cool somewhat behind the front
on Friday and Saturday but should still be above normal.
Through the weekend, the upper flow continues to be more zonal. A
weak upper shortwave moves out over the central Plains late in the
weekend. At this time it appears that any significant moisture
return will stay just to the south of Kansas.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Wednesday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
The stratus moving southwest across north central Kansas begins
to retreat back to the northeast based on the HRRR ceilings trend.
Breezy northwest winds will prevail through the morning before
becoming light in the afternoon. Light surface winds will then
veer overnight to the south by early Wednesday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
Very warm and windy conditions are expected to develop across
western and central Kansas on Thursday. Relative humidity levels
are expected to fall into the single digits and lower teens across
a good part of southwest Kansas. With winds increasing during the
day, critical wildfire conditions are expected to develop during
the afternoon hours. A fire weather watch has been issued.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 58 33 68 43 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 58 32 68 39 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 61 34 72 43 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 60 33 72 43 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 54 32 64 41 / 0 0 0 0
P28 59 33 68 45 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Fire Weather Watch Thursday afternoon for KSZ030-031-043>046-
061>066-074>081-084>090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Russell
FIRE WEATHER...Gerard
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
434 AM MST TUE FEB 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MST TUE FEB 16 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
THROUGH OUR CWA WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOW BUILDING FROM THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE INTO NE COLORADO AND NW KANSAS.
THE MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST UPDATE WAS ON POTENTIAL FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAINLY THURSDAY...SEE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.
EARLY THIS MORNING...RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT RETURNS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...WITH VIRGA OR A FEW
SPRINKLES. DRIER AND MUCH MORE STABLE AIR BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAS HELPED WEAKEN THIS ACTIVITY AND SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH 12Z.
TODAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...STRONG H5 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US COAST
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS THROUGH MID
WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT A VERY DEEP/DRY AIR MASS AND UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THESE PERIODS. TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE
COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO POST FRONTAL AIR MASS THROUGH
MIDDAY...HOWEVER AS LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WE COULD
ACTUALLY END UP PRETTY SIMILAR IF OPAQUE CIRRUS DOESNT COMPLICATE
THINGS. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY AND WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S...POSSIBLE AROUND 70 IN OUR SOUTH. DEEP SW FLOW DEVELOPS ON BACK
EDGE OF RIDGE THURSDAY A BUILDING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN DEEP SW FLOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY
STRONG WAA WITH THIS PATTERN AS STRONGER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS BEING MET AT A FEW
LOCATIONS. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. DEEP DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CHANCES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST TUE FEB 16 2016
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
CONTINUE AS BROAD H5 RIDGE SEEN EARLIER IN THE WEEK BEGINS TO BREAKS
DOWN/FLATTEN ALLOWING FOR ZONAL FLOW OVER THE PLAINS/ROCKIES REGION.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SYSTEM COMING OFF THE ROCKIES MONDAY
NIGHT ON INTO TUESDAY. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN AVAILABLE QPF WITH
ITS PASSAGE...BUT HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GFS GIVING AREA A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPS DURING PASSAGE. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
TO HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT AS IT TRAVERSES
AREA. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE BRING 25-35 MPH POTENTIAL.
FOR TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE 60S FRIDAY/SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGHS...THEN 50S FOR SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY AS SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS
DRAGGED INTO AREA WITH EACH SYSTEM PASSAGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
FROM THE 30S INTO THE 20S FOR THE SAME ABOVE MENTIONED
REASON...ARRIVAL OF COOLER/COLDER AIR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MST TUE FEB 16 2016
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINAL. SEVERAL POCKETS OF 3000-3500KFT AGL CIG
UPSTREAM MAY TRY TO ADVECT TOWARDS BOTH TERMINAL...HOWEVER CURRENT
TRENDS IN SATELLITE AND SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOW THESE POCKETS
DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND REMAINING WELL OUTSIDE THE
VICINITY OF EITHER TERMINAL. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS THIS
MORNING SHOULD DECREASE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY VEER TO THE WEST BY
LATE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
REDEVELOP IN EASTERN COLORADO BEHIND THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 314 AM MST TUE FEB 16 2016
CONSIDERING THE VERY DRY AIR MASS ADVERTISED BY GUIDANCE WE COULD
SEE NEAR CRITICAL CRITERIA RH MET IN OUR FAR SW WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THIS SHOULDNT NECESSITATE A WATCH ISSUANCE
CONSIDERING THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE RH/WINDS. STRONG
UNIDIRECTIONAL GRADIENT (STRONG WINDS)...GOOD MIXING...RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES...AND VERY DRY AIR SHOULD MAKE CRITICAL CRITERIA
CROSSOVER OF RH/WINDS A SLAM DUNK THURSDAY FOR SW PORTIONS OF OUR
CWA (ROUGHLY SW OF YUMA TO GOVE LINE).
AT THIS JUNCTURE THE BIGGEST QUESTION ON WHERE TO DRAW UP A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY IS FUELS. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FURTHER
MELTING/CURING SHOULD TAKE PLACE. LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST
MAY STILL BE WET ENOUGH FROM RECENT SNOW MELT THAT WITHOUT
COLLABORATING WITH PARTNERS IM NOT COMFORTABLE ISSUING ANY HAZARD
PRODUCTS FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. IM MORE CONFIDENT THAT LOCATIONS
ALONG/SOUTH OF HWY 40 WILL HAVE AMPLE OPPORTUNITY TO CURE AND THE
MAJORITY OF FUELS WILL BE READY TO GO. I DECIDED TO LIMIT A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH TO THESE SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THIS UPDATE...AND
WILL ALLOW COORDINATION WITH PARTNERS DURING DAY SHIFT TO FINE
TUNE FUELS EXPECTATIONS NORTH OF THIS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 314 AM MST TUE FEB 16 2016
DAILY RECORDS AND CURRENT FORECAST FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY.
SITE.............RECORD...CURRENT FORECAST
GOODLAND, KS.......74...........78
MCCOOK, NE.........82...........76
BURLINGTON,CO......74...........76
HILL CITY,KS.......75...........80
COLBY, KS..........81...........78
TRIBUNE, KS........79...........79
YUMA, CO...........73...........74
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KSZ027>029-041-042.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...DR
CLIMATE...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
314 AM MST TUE FEB 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MST TUE FEB 16 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
THROUGH OUR CWA WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOW BUILDING FROM THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE INTO NE COLORADO AND NW KANSAS.
THE MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST UPDATE WAS ON POTENTIAL FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAINLY THURSDAY...SEE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.
EARLY THIS MORNING...RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT RETURNS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...WITH VIRGA OR A FEW
SPRINKLES. DRIER AND MUCH MORE STABLE AIR BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAS HELPED WEAKEN THIS ACTIVITY AND SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH 12Z.
TODAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...STRONG H5 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US COAST
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS THROUGH MID
WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT A VERY DEEP/DRY AIR MASS AND UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THESE PERIODS. TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE
COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO POST FRONTAL AIR MASS THROUGH
MIDDAY...HOWEVER AS LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WE COULD
ACTUALLY END UP PRETTY SIMILAR IF OPAQUE CIRRUS DOESNT COMPLICATE
THINGS. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY AND WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S...POSSIBLE AROUND 70 IN OUR SOUTH. DEEP SW FLOW DEVELOPS ON BACK
EDGE OF RIDGE THURSDAY A BUILDING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN DEEP SW FLOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY
STRONG WAA WITH THIS PATTERN AS STRONGER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS BEING MET AT A FEW
LOCATIONS. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. DEEP DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CHANCES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST TUE FEB 16 2016
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
CONTINUE AS BROAD H5 RIDGE SEEN EARLIER IN THE WEEK BEGINS TO BREAKS
DOWN/FLATTEN ALLOWING FOR ZONAL FLOW OVER THE PLAINS/ROCKIES REGION.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SYSTEM COMING OFF THE ROCKIES MONDAY
NIGHT ON INTO TUESDAY. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN AVAILABLE QPF WITH
ITS PASSAGE...BUT HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GFS GIVING AREA A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPS DURING PASSAGE. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
TO HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT AS IT TRAVERSES
AREA. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE BRING 25-35 MPH POTENTIAL.
FOR TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE 60S FRIDAY/SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGHS...THEN 50S FOR SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY AS SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS
DRAGGED INTO AREA WITH EACH SYSTEM PASSAGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
FROM THE 30S INTO THE 20S FOR THE SAME ABOVE MENTIONED
REASON...ARRIVAL OF COOLER/COLDER AIR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MST MON FEB 15 2016
AT THIS TIME VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR
KGLD...NARROW BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT CURRENTLY TO THE
NORTH THROUGH EAST OF KGLD APPEARS TO BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION STILL UPSTREAM. IT
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THIS PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT THE SITE SO JUST
PUT IN VCSH FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS. A MINORITY OF THE
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING SUB VFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS MVFR CONDITIONS
WELL UPSTREAM OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME. CHOSE TO NOT GO MVFR BUT
JUST ABOVE MVFR AND LET THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT ADJUST. OTHERWISE
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 24 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED UNTIL 14Z. AFTER THAT THE WINDS BE SHIFTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THEY STAY BELOW 10 KNOTS.
FOR KMCK...PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY WEST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE
SITE. AGAIN AM NOT BUYING INTO THE MVFR CEILINGS THAT SOME
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING AND AGAIN WENT JUST ABOVE MVFR FROM O9Z TO
14Z. LLWS WILL BE IN PLACE UNTIL 09Z. AT THAT TIME THE NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 17 KNOTS AND GUSTS
TO NEAR 25 KNOTS. THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 14Z WHEN THE WINDS WILL
STAY BELOW 12 KNOTS AS THEY SHIFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 314 AM MST TUE FEB 16 2016
CONSIDERING THE VERY DRY AIR MASS ADVERTISED BY GUIDANCE WE COULD
SEE NEAR CRITICAL CRITERIA RH MET IN OUR FAR SW WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THIS SHOULDNT NECESSITATE A WATCH ISSUANCE
CONSIDERING THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE RH/WINDS. STRONG
UNIDIRECTIONAL GRADIENT (STRONG WINDS)...GOOD MIXING...RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES...AND VERY DRY AIR SHOULD MAKE CRITICAL CRITERIA
CROSSOVER OF RH/WINDS A SLAM DUNK THURSDAY FOR SW PORTIONS OF OUR
CWA (ROUGHLY SW OF YUMA TO GOVE LINE).
AT THIS JUNCTURE THE BIGGEST QUESTION ON WHERE TO DRAW UP A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY IS FUELS. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FURTHER
MELTING/CURING SHOULD TAKE PLACE. LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST
MAY STILL BE WET ENOUGH FROM RECENT SNOW MELT THAT WITHOUT
COLLABORATING WITH PARTNERS IM NOT COMFORTABLE ISSUING ANY HAZARD
PRODUCTS FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. IM MORE CONFIDENT THAT LOCATIONS
ALONG/SOUTH OF HWY 40 WILL HAVE AMPLE OPPORTUNITY TO CURE AND THE
MAJORITY OF FUELS WILL BE READY TO GO. I DECIDED TO LIMIT A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH TO THESE SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THIS UPDATE...AND
WILL ALLOW COORDINATION WITH PARTNERS DURING DAY SHIFT TO FINE
TUNE FUELS EXPECTATIONS NORTH OF THIS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 314 AM MST TUE FEB 16 2016
DAILY RECORDS AND CURRENT FORECAST FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY.
SITE.............RECORD...CURRENT FORECAST
GOODLAND, KS.......74...........78
MCCOOK, NE.........82...........76
BURLINGTON,CO......74...........76
HILL CITY,KS.......75...........80
COLBY, KS..........81...........78
TRIBUNE, KS........79...........79
YUMA, CO...........73...........74
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KSZ027>029-041-042.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...DR
CLIMATE...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
643 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SOME UPR TROFFING
CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY DOMINATING CENTRAL AND ERN NAMERICA. THERE
IS AN APRCHG SHRTWV OVER NRN MN THAT IS EMBEDDED IN THE WNW FLOW
ALF. AXIS OF MODEST DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
CAUSING 12HR H5 HGT FALLS UNDER 30M AS WELL AS SOME MODEST MSTR
SHOWN ON THE WV IMAGERY/HINTED AT BY THE 00Z MPX RAOB IS RESULTING
IN SOME SCT SN SHOWERS OVER THE W AND CENTRAL CWA EARLY THIS MRNG
WELL TO THE E OF ACCOMPANYING SFC LO PRES TROF MOVING THRU NE MN.
SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVRN NEAR H85 DEPICTED ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB IS
KEEPING THE FAR ERN CWA DRY...BUT THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF LO CLD
TRAPPED BENEATH THIS INVRN. H85 TEMPS RIGHT ALONG THIS LO PRES TROF
ARE NOT THAT COLD...AS 00Z H85 TEMP AT INL WAS ONLY -7C. FARTHER TO
THE NNW...THE 00Z H85 TEMPS WERE -13C AT YPL AND -16C AT THE PAS
MANITOBA.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS TODAY ASSOCIATED
WITH APRCHG SHRTWV/LO PRES TROF AND THEN ON LES COVERAGE/INTENSITY
TNGT AS COLDER AIR FOLLOWS IN THE NNW FLOW BEHIND THE TROF PASSAGE.
TODAY...AS SHRTWV/AXIS OF ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR FORCING AND DEEPER
MSTR MOVE E TODAY...EXPECT THE SCT SN SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE CWA THIS MORNING. BUT ALL THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HINTS THE
MARGINAL FORCING/MSTR WL RESTRICT PCPN TOTALS WITH NO MORE THAN
ABOUT AN INCH OF SN AT ANY ONE SPOT. BUT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN TO
THE NW CWA LATER IN THE DAY...LOWERING H85 TEMPS DOWN TO ABOUT -15C/-
16C OVER THE KEWEENAW BY 00Z WED...SOME MORE NMRS/HEAVER LK EFFECT
SN SHOWERS MAY DVLP IN THAT AREA. SINCE SGNFTLY COLDER AIR WL NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL LATER...GOING FCST HI TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S SEEMS ON
TRACK.
TNGT...LLVL NNW FLOW AHEAD OF APRCHG CNDN HI PRES THAT IS FCST TO
REACH NEAR THUNDER BAY ONTARIO BY DAYBREAK WED WL DRIVE H85 TEMPS AS
LO AS -18C TO -20C OVER THE E HALF LK SUP AT 12Z. THIS INFLUX OF
COLD AIR WL SUPPORT LES IN THE FAVORED SN BELTS IN GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON
COUNTIES AND FM MARQUETTE TO THE E. WHILE FCST SHARPER LLVL SFC
CNVGC IN THESE AREAS AS WELL AS FAVORABLE LOCATION OF THE DGZ/LLVL
UVV MAX WITHIN THE MOIST LYR ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME HEAVIER LES...
ARRIVAL OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/MID LVL DRYING THAT ARE FCST TO
LOWER THE INVRN BASE TO 3-4K FT AGL/MORE ACYC H925 FLOW BY 12Z WED
WL ACT TO LIMIT LES INTENSITY. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY BLSN NEAR
LK SUP MAINLY IN THE EVNG WHEN H925 WINDS ARE FCST UP TO 25 KTS
DURING PERIOD OF SHAPER LLVL CAA THAT WL ENHANCE MIXING OF THIS
MOMENTUM TO THE SFC. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF
FLUFFY SN IN THE FAVORED SN BELTS...OVERALL LARGER SCALE NEGATIVES
AND MARGINAL WINDS/BLSN POTENTIAL INDICATE THIS LES EVENT WL NOT
REQUIRE A HEADLINE. MIN TEMPS TNGT WL FALL TO 5-10F OVER THE
INTERIOR W HALF BUT SHOULD HOLD NO LOWER THAN THE MID TEENS IN THE
FAVORED SN BELTS E OF MARQUETTE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
...WINTRY MIX THU NIGHT INTO FRI...
STRONG JET DIGGING INTO CNTRL CONUS RESULTS IN UPPER TROUGHING AND
COLD AIR ACROSS GREAT LAKES ON WED. THEN...ENERGETIC PACIFIC JET OF
175-200KT AT H25...FORCES TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN PACIFIC OVER
WESTERN CONUS THU WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING SPREADING OVER GOOD
PORTION OF CONUS...INCLUDING GREAT LAKES. WESTERN TROUGH HEADS
TOWARD GREAT LAKES ON FRI ALONG WITH DEEPENING SFC LOW AND WARM
FRONT. MODELS ARE GOING BACK AND FORTH ON HOW FAR NORTH PRIMARY SFC
LOW TRACKS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT WHICH AFFECTS HOW QUICKLY
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MIXED PRECIP ISSUES ARRIVE OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. IN WAKE OF THE SFC LOW...COOLER AIR MOVES BACK OVER
UPPER GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEKEND...BUT EXTENT OF COOLING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. SWIFT WNW FLOW ALOFT COULD BRING ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
AND SNOW CHANCES...MAINLY LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
STARTING OFF ON WED...TROUGHING AND COLD AIR WILL BE TEMPORARILY IN
PLACE. LOOKING AT H85 TEMPS -18C TO -20C...LOWEST OVER EASTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN ONTARIO...BUT MODERATION OCCURS FAIRLY QUICKLY
BY WED EVENING WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. TROUGH AXIS STAYING
NORTHEAST OF UPPER GREAT LAKES LEADS TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
TAKING CHARGE BY WED MORNING WITH STRONG H7-H5 Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE
AND DRYING ABOVE H85. SFC HIGH OVER 1025MB SLIDING IN FM MANITOBA
AND NORTHERN ONTARIO BRINGS ANTICYCLONIC SFC FLOW ACROSS LK SUPERIOR
THOUGH NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW MAY HANG AROUND FOR MORNING
HOURS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR AND DOWNSTREAM NCNTRL AND EASTERN CWA.
AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...THE INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL TO LESS THAN 4KFT
OVER LK SUPERIOR. LAKE EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS SIMILAR OVER WEST BUT ARE
MORE AROUND 6KFT OVER SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR DUE TO INCREASED FETCH WITH
NNW TO N BLYR FLOW. DEEPER LAKE CONVECTIVE LAYER...BLYR WINDS 15-20
KTS HELPING ORGANIZATION...AND FAVORABLE DGZ MAY OFFSET THE NEGATIVE
LARGE SCALE FACTORS TO HELP FLUFF UP A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ON WED
MORNING. EXPECTED BLYR FLOW FAVORS SNOW BELTS OVER EASTERN MARQUETTE
COUNTY INTO ALGER COUNTY AND MAYBE EVEN INTO DELTA AND SCHOOLCRAFT
COUNTIES FOR PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS AND ACCUMS. SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING WITH THE HIGH EVENTUALLY WILL PUT CRIMP ON LES LATE WED
MORNING INTO WED AFTN...THOUGH ONSHORE FLOW AND ENOUGH MOISTURE IN
LOW-LEVELS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OVER PARTS OF CNTRL CWA
UNTIL LATE AFTN. AWAY FM LAKE EFFECT...SCT STRATOCU MAY EXPAND WITH
HEATING OF THE DAY...BUT WOULD ONLY BE FLURRIES INLAND DUE TO VERY
LOW INVERSIONS AND NO SUPPORT IN LARGER SCALE. TEMPS IN THE TEENS
MOST AREAS...BUT THAT IS AS COLD AS MAX TEMPS WILL BE THE REST OF
THE WEEK.
SFC RIDGE CENTERS OVER EAST HALF OF CWA WED EVENING THEN DRIFTS TO
LOWER GREAT LAKES BY THU MORNING. BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING AND LIGHT
WINDS WITH THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER EAST HALF IN THE EVENING. RISK OF
LOW CLOUDS STAYING TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION OVER WEST HALF. NAM IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE ON THAT IDEA AND SOMETIMES HAS BIAS TO SO SUCH A
SCENARIO. IN ANY CASE...RETURN FLOW AND/OR CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
FM TANKING WEST...BUT THAT MIGHT NOT BE THE CASE OVER THE EAST. WILL
KEEP FAVORING COLDER GUIDANCE THERE.
RIDGE HEADS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC ON THU WHILE BROAD
AND RATHER COMPLEX AREA OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA ACROSS THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUNDINGS INDICATE MID-HIGH CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY
BUT LOW-LEVELS STAY DRY. EXCEPTION IS OVER INTERIOR WEST HALF WHERE
UPSLOPE SSE WINDS BTWN THE DEPARTING RIDGE AND APPROACHING LOW MAY
HELP DEVELOP LOW CLOUDS/FLURRIES/FZDZ. WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ALOFT
RAMPS UP THU NIGHT INTO FRI. SCENARIO NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR CUT
THOUGH DUE TO DRYING ALOFT THAT IS SHOWN BY ECMWF...WHICH IS WPC
FAVORED MODEL ATTM WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ALSO HAS BEEN MOST
CONSISTENT WITH TRACK OF SFC LOW. WOULD SEE SOME SORT OF SNOW TO
DZ/FZDZ TRANSITION IF DRYING ALOFT OCCURRED AND EVEN THE DZ/FZDZ
RISK LATER THU NIGHT COULD BE AN IFFY PROPOSITION DUE TO LOW-LEVEL
DRYING IN DRY SLOT OF APPROACHING SFC LOW. AREA OF CNTRL UPR
MICHIGAN WITH SSE WINDS PROVIDING UPSLOPE AND MOISTURE OFF LK
MICHIGAN MAY BE THE EXCEPTION. FOR NOW...SHOWED HIGHER/LIKELY POPS
THU EVENING THEN TAPERED TO CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. THOUGH PTYPE
WOULD BE MORE DZ/FZDZ KEPT WITH RAIN/FZRA. DID NOT WANT TO GET TOO
SPECIFIC AS TIMING OUT A DRY SLOT AND ITS AFFECT ON PTYPE IS KIND OF
RISKY 3 DAYS OUT. CONCERNED THAT COLD SFC TEMPS AND ROAD TEMPS MAY
RESULT IN FZRA/ICING AT LEAST ON UNTREATED ROADS LATE THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING EVEN IF AIR TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. WILL BE
SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND ON LATER SHIFTS.
DEEP MOISTURE WOULD THEN FILL BACK IN ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH ARRIVAL
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH/FAVORABLE DYNAMICS. BY TIME THE DEEPER MOISTURE
RETURNS ON FRI...PTYPE WOULD BE LIQUID WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING
DEEP/MOIST WELL ABOVE FREEZING LAYER THROUGH 5KFT/H8. DID KEEP
MENTION OF FZRA 12Z-15Z WHERE TEMPS WERE 35 DEGREES OR LOWER.
EVENTUALLY COLDER AIR WORKS IN BUT IT IS NOT AS EMPHATIC AS IT
LOOKED LIKE A COUPLE NIGHTS AGO. THUS...PTYPE FRI NIGHT AND/OR SAT
COULD STILL HAVE SOME RAIN/SNOW. DOES BECOME SUFFICIENTLY COLD
ENOUGH SAT NIGHT INTO SUN FOR JUST SNOW. 00Z MODELS SHOW SHORTWAVE
CROSSING SO HAVE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ON SUN
WITH SMALL CHANCE OF LES SUN NIGHT INTO MON BEHIND THAT SYSTEM.
TWEAKED TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FM CONSENSUS FOR MON AS 00Z ECMWF/GFS
TRENDED COLDER THAN 12Z/15 SOLNS. ECMWF SHOWS -20C H85 TEMPS
RETURNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
A COLD FNT WL CROSS UPR MI TODAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SCT -SHSN AND
PREDOMINANT MVFR CONDITIONS. WITH A WSHFT TO THE NNW BEHIND THE
FROPA...COLDER AIR WL FLOW OVER LK SUP AND RESULT IN MORE NMRS SHSN
THAT WL BRING IFR VSBYS AT TIMES. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS ARE MORE
LIKELY TO PREDOMINATE AT IWD...WHERE THE LLVL FLOW WL UPSLOPE AND
SHARPER LLVL CNVGC WL FOCUS SOME HEAVIER SHSN. IFR CONDITIONS WL BE
POSSIBLE AT CMX AND SAW AS WELL...BUT THESE LOWER VSBYS WL BE MORE
TRANSIENT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
EXPECT LIGHT WSW WINDS THIS MORNING TO SHIFT TO THE NNW DURING THE
DAY FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WED UNDER A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
AHEAD OF HI PRES BUILDING INTO FAR NW ONTARIO ON WED MORNING. THERE
MAY BE POCKETS OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE NCENTRAL
LAKE TONIGHT WITH THE INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
UNDER 20KT WED AS HI PRES ARRIVES OVER THE UPPER LAKES. STRONGER SSE
WINDS UP TO 30KT WILL THEN DEVELOP ON THU UNDER A TIGHTENING PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HI AND ANOTHER APPROACHING LO PRES.
OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE...S GALES TO 35 KTS ARE LIKELY AT LEAST
PART OF THE TIME ON THU AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE LO WILL PASS OVER
OR JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR FRI. STRONG W TO NW WINDS UP TO 30KT WILL
THEN FOLLOW INTO FRI NIGHT AND SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
516 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
THE MIDLEVEL CLOUDINESS THE CNTL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS STRETCHING
FROM MT THROUGH WY...NRN COLO AND WRN NEB REPRESENTS A WELL
ADVERTISED WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS. THE CLOUDS AND THE WARMER AIR WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY
EAST TODAY AS SFC LOW PRESSURE FILLS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. THE
MIDLEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND MOVE
EAST OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. THE LATEST BLEND OF GUIDANCE PLUS
BIAS CORRECTION PRODUCES HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S WITH 50S ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NEB AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE.
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 15 MPH THIS MORNING BECOME WEST AND SLACKEN
THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF A LONG
WAVE TROUGH/PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING ONTO THE WEST
COAST. A THERMAL RIDGE WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...WITH A COUPLE OF WARM DAYS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT WARMER AIR ALOFT
NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH H850MB TEMPERATURES
RISING TO BETWEEN 7C AND 10C BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. BY
THURSDAY...THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE ORIENTED FROM CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN KS AND THE TX/OK
PANHANDLE REGION. H850MB TEMPERATURES WILL REACH AS WARM AS 25C
ACROSS WESTERN KS AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLE...WITH A TONGUE OF OF
18C TO 21C EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION. THESE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME CIRRUS
CLOUD COVER...BUT EXPECTING THIS TO HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES DUE TO A WELL MIXED LOWER ATMOSPHERE.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DAMPEN AND QUICKLY MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. SEEING A SIGNAL IN THE MODELS THAT INDICATE STRONG WINDS
COULD ACCOMPANY THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND
NAM MODELS BOTH MOVE A MODEST TROP FOLD/PV ANOMALY RIGHT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS COULD...AND HAS IN THE PAST...HELP MIX
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. WILL BUMP WINDS UP A BIT WITH
THIS FORECAST CYCLE...AND CONTINUE THE STRONG WIND MENTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL STAY MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE AND STRONGER LIFT WILL BE LOCATED.
IT WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A PACIFIC AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. A SYSTEM CROSSING
CANADA SUNDAY WILL DRIVE A WEAK CANADIAN COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA...WITH HIGHS SETTLING BACK INTO THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS HOLT COUNTY AND ADJOINING AREAS IMPROVE TO
MVFR THIS MORNING. THE RAP MODEL INDICATES MVFR/IFR CIGS MAY
RETURN THIS EVENING BEFORE A WARM FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE FCST
AREA LATE TONIGHT. VFR IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
759 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TODAY...BRINGING A VARIETY OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
THIS MORNING...THEN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE ON
THURSDAY...THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN HAS BECOME TEMPORARILY LIGHTER AND MORE INTERMITTENT ACROSS
THE SE HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...AS STRENGTHENING 850-700 MB
FGEN RIBBON HAS SHIFTED TO THE NW MTNS BETWEEN KFIG...KBFD...KELZ
AND KELM. IN THIS AREA...WE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
THROUGH 15Z TODAY...AND UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARMING FOR
SEVERAL COUNTIES IN THE WEST CENTRAL AND NW MTNS WHERE WE EXPECT
TO SEE AOA O.50 INCH OF ICE ACCUM.
SFC TEMPS CONTINUE TO LAG /BY UP TO SEVERAL DEG F/ THE WELL-
ADVERTISED MULTI MODEL WARMUP THAT WOULD OTHERWISE CHANGE THE
PRECIP OVER TO RAIN FROM SE TO NW ACROSS THE CWA EARLY TODAY.
09Z RAP DOES WARM UP THE NEAR SFC LAYER TEMPS TO THE MID 30S
ACROSS THE LAURELS AND AREAS WEST OF THE SUSQ MAINSTEM LATE THIS
MORNING...WITH MILDER TEMPS AROUND 40F EAST OF THE SUSQ.
TEMPS ARE SHOWN BY THE RAP TO ONLY CREEP UP TO AROUND 32F
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION BY ABOUT
15Z...WHILE TEMPS STAY JUST BELOW FREEZING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT
ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES - MAINTAINING SNOW/SLEET AS THE PRIMARY
PRECIP TYPE.
COASTAL FRONT AND MILD AIR IN THE 40S TO ITS EAST /AND BEGINNING
TO CROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND DELAWARE RIVER AT 1030Z/ SHOULD
PUSH SOME MUCH MILDER AIR INTO OUR FAR ERN ZONES. HOWEVER...WITH
THE LACK OF A STRONG SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOUTH TO SE FLOW
PRECEDING THE LOW...IT/S DOUBTFUL THAT THE SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING
AIR WILL BE ABLE TO GET SCOURED OUT OF THE CENTRAL MTNS THIS
MORNING. PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA THAT BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR
EAST OF SFC LOW SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS AOA 50F TUESDAY...WHILE THE
NW MTNS PROBABLY BARELY GET ABV FREEZING.
998 MB SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS NCENT/NERN PENN DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT
PUSHING EAST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY BETWEEN 18-20Z. THIS WILL SHUT
DONW THE STEADY PRECIP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ZONES...WHILE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FLY ACROSS
THE NW MTNS...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER ONE INCH.
STORM TOTAL LIQ EQUIVALENT WILL BE 1.5 TO 2 INCHES...WITH THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP ACROSS OUR NW ZONES EARLY TODAY...AND SHIFTING TO
THE SUSQ VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING.
MOST RIVER POINTS DO NOT SEEM IN DANGER OF FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THAN THE RATHER DENSE SNOWPACK SHOULD ABSORB SOME OF
THIS RAIN AS IT FALLS...THUS DAMPENING/SLOWING THE RESPONSE ON THE
WATERWAYS. HOWEVER...THE NORMAL PLACES TO SEE RISES ON SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS WILL CERTAINLY SEE THIS. IT IS DEFINITELY WORTH
CONSIDERING A FLOOD WATCH FOR PART OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO MULL
THIS OVER AND CONFAB WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR FLOWS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS
THE CURRENT LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTS NE INTO NEW ENGLAND...AND A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVES MOVES SE FROM THE GLAKES. THE COLD AIR WILL
BE QUITE SHALLOW WITH THE SUBSIDNECE INVERSION BASE AOB 4 KFT
AGL. THEREFORE...JUST SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMS OF A COATING TO
AROUND 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS DURING
THIS 24 HOUR PERIOD.
THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ REGION SHOULD ONLY SEE A FEW FLURRIES
AND SOME OCCASIONAL GLIMPSES OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DUAL LAYER OF
CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE FAR SE ZONES.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN
MTNS...AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SE OF THE MTNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOOKING A SW FLOW OF MILD AND DRY AIR OFF THE HIGH PLAINS
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS AIRMASS...SO DID CUT BACK ON
POPS WHERE POSSIBLE.
COLDER AIR TRYS TO WORK BACK IN AFTER NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRENGTHENING SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN...WIDESPREAD
MAINLY IFR RESTRICTIONS...LLWS...AND ICING POTENTIAL WILL IMPACT
AVIATION.
POTENT SOUTHERLY 60-70KT LLJET FOCUSED OVER EASTERN HALF OF CWA AT
12Z WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SIG SPEED SHEAR
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING RAPIDLY
BETWEEN 1000-3000FT AGL.
WIDESPREAD MAINLY IFR RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE AREWIDE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS AS IMPACTS CONTINUE FROM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH. FREEZING RAIN CONTINUES OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
MTNS /SNOW OVER FAR NW MTNS NEAR KBFD/ AT SUNRISE AS TEMPS REMAIN
AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL KEEP POTENTIAL FOR SIG ICING
AS ISSUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. ONE MORE WAVE OF PRECIP SLIDES
THROUGH FROM 12-18Z...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO ALL. ONGOING FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP WILL
TRANSITION TO A PLAIN RAIN IN MOST LOCALES AS WARMER TEMPS WORK IN
FROM THE SE. OVER THE SE...THE WARMER AIR /AKA ABOVE FREEZING/ HAS
ARRIVED...AND REMAINDER OF PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS PLAIN RAIN BEFORE
ENDING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN
MTNS AND SE WITH A RETURN TO VFR. THIS SPREADS INTO NE AREAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. BUT RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN AS FLOW TURNS TO THE NW BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM. WINDS DO
PICK UP WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS WINDS
TURN TO THE WEST SPEEDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 10G20KT.
ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE SLIDES THROUGH ON WED...KEEPING RESTRICTIONS
IN PLACE OVER THE WEST. THEY MAY SPILL INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS FOR A
TIME...BUT OTHERWISE CENTRAL AND SE WILL REMAIN VFR.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE ON THURSDAY...THEN LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WED...ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES THROUGH KEEPING RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE
OVER THE WEST /AND POSS CENTRAL/ ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
SNOW.
THU...MAINLY VFR.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. PERHAPS A RAIN SHOWER...MAINLY LATE.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ005-006-019-025>028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ010>012-017-018-024-033>036-056-057-063>065.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
601 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TODAY...BRINGING A VARIETY OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
THIS MORNING...THEN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE ON
THURSDAY...THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN HAS BECOME TEMPORARILY LIGHTER AND MORE INTERMITTENT ACROSS
THE SE HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...AS STRENGTHENING 850-700 MB
FGEN RIBBON HAS SHIFTED TO THE NW MTNS BETWEEN KFIG...KBFD...KELZ
AND KELM. IN THIS AREA...WE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
THROUGH 15Z TODAY...AND UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARMING FOR
SEVERAL COUNTIES IN THE WEST CENTRAL AND NW MTNS WHERE WE EXPECT
TO SEE AOA O.50 INCH OF ICE ACCUM.
SFC TEMPS CONTINUE TO LAG /BY UP TO SEVERAL DEG F/ THE WELL-
ADVERTISED MULTI MODEL WARMUP THAT WOULD OTHERWISE CHANGE THE
PRECIP OVER TO RAIN FROM SE TO NW ACROSS THE CWA EARLY TODAY.
09Z RAP DOES WARM UP THE NEAR SFC LAYER TEMPS TO THE MID 30S
ACROSS THE LAURELS AND AREAS WEST OF THE SUSQ MAINSTEM LATE THIS
MORNING...WITH MILDER TEMPS AROUND 40F EAST OF THE SUSQ.
TEMPS ARE SHOWN BY THE RAP TO ONLY CREEP UP TO AROUND 32F
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION BY ABOUT
15Z...WHILE TEMPS STAY JUST BELOW FREEZING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT
ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES - MAINTAINING SNOW/SLEET AS THE PRIMARY
PRECIP TYPE.
COASTAL FRONT AND MILD AIR IN THE 40S TO ITS EAST /AND BEGINNING
TO CROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND DELAWARE RIVER AT 1030Z/ SHOULD
PUSH SOME MUCH MILDER AIR INTO OUR FAR ERN ZONES. HOWEVER...WITH
THE LACK OF A STRONG SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOUTH TO SE FLOW
PRECEDING THE LOW...IT/S DOUBTFUL THAT THE SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING
AIR WILL BE ABLE TO GET SCOURED OUT OF THE CENTRAL MTNS THIS
MORNING. PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA THAT BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR
EAST OF SFC LOW SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS AOA 50F TUESDAY...WHILE THE
NW MTNS PROBABLY BARELY GET ABV FREEZING.
998 MB SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS NCENT/NERN PENN DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT
PUSHING EAST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY BETWEEN 18-20Z. THIS WILL SHUT
DONW THE STEADY PRECIP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ZONES...WHILE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FLY ACROSS
THE NW MTNS...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER ONE INCH.
STORM TOTAL LIQ EQUIVALENT WILL BE 1.5 TO 2 INCHES...WITH THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP ACROSS OUR NW ZONES EARLY TODAY...AND SHIFTING TO
THE SUSQ VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING.
MOST RIVER POINTS DO NOT SEEM IN DANGER OF FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THAN THE RATHER DENSE SNOWPACK SHOULD ABSORB SOME OF
THIS RAIN AS IT FALLS...THUS DAMPENING/SLOWING THE RESPONSE ON THE
WATERWAYS. HOWEVER...THE NORMAL PLACES TO SEE RISES ON SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS WILL CERTAINLY SEE THIS. IT IS DEFINITELY WORTH
CONSIDERING A FLOOD WATCH FOR PART OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO MULL
THIS OVER AND CONFAB WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR FLOWS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS
THE CURRENT LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTS NE INTO NEW ENGLAND...AND A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVES MOVES SE FROM THE GLAKES. THE COLD AIR WILL
BE QUITE SHALLOW WITH THE SUBSIDNECE INVERSION BASE AOB 4 KFT
AGL. THEREFORE...JUST SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMS OF A COATING TO
AROUND 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS DURING
THIS 24 HOUR PERIOD.
THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ REGION SHOULD ONLY SEE A FEW FLURRIES
AND SOME OCCASIONAL GLIMPSES OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DUAL LAYER OF
CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE FAR SE ZONES.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN
MTNS...AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SE OF THE MTNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOOKING A SW FLOW OF MILD AND DRY AIR OFF THE HIGH PLAINS
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS AIRMASS...SO DID CUT BACK ON
POPS WHERE POSSIBLE.
COLDER AIR TRYS TO WORK BACK IN AFTER NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ELONGATED SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL
SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST AND TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA LATE THIS MORNING. UNTIL THEN...WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS...LLWS AND ICING POTENTIAL WILL IMPACT AVIATION.
POTENT SOUTHERLY 60KT LLJET WILL SWING THROUGH OVER NEXT
6-12HRS...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING RAPIDLY BETWEEN 1000-3000FT.
STRONGEST SHEAR WILL BE OVER SE HALF OF CWA.
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE AREWIDE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS IMPACTS FROM WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES. TREND THROUGH SUNRISE WILL BE FOR FREEZING RAIN TO
BECOME MORE SCATTERED OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY...BUT ANOTHER WAVE
SLIDES THROUGH FROM 12-18Z BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THERE. ONGOING FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THAT PERIOD IN THE CENTRAL AND NW MTNS. WITH
WARMER TEMPS SLIDING IN FROM THE SE...PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO
AND END AS RAIN IN MOST PLACES DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. BUT ICING WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE THROUGH THEN.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN
MTNS AND SE WITH A RETURN TO VFR. THIS SPREADS INTO THE NE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. BUT RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN AS FLOW TURNS TO THE NW BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM.
ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE SLIDES THROUGH ON WED...KEEPING RESTRICTIONS
IN PLACE OVER THE WEST. THEY MAY SPILL INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS FOR A
TIME...BUT OTHERWISE CENTRAL AND SE WILL REMAIN VFR.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE ON THURSDAY...THEN LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WED...ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES THROUGH KEEPING RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE
OVER THE WEST /AND POSS CENTRAL/ ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
SNOW.
THU...MAINLY VFR.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. PERHAPS A RAIN SHOWER...MAINLY LATE.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ005-006-019-025>028-037-041-042-045.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ010>012-017-018-024.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ033>036-056>059-063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ046-
049>053.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1050 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
CANADA BY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
TRACK INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THIS EVENING...THEN OFFSHORE BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1050 AM EST TUESDAY...
WINTER STORM WATCH CANCELED FOR REST OF FORECAST AREA. THE RAIN
HAS LIFTED TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN
HAS ENDED THIS MORNING FOR THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE RISING AND
HAVE CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ROADS REMAIN SNOW AND ICE COVERED IN MANY LOCATIONS.
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING CLOSER TO
SURFACE OBS AND TRENDED THE LATE MORNING READINGS TOWARDS A BLEND
OF HRRR AND NAM. LEANED POPS FOR LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON
TOWARDS THE HRRR AND USED WEATHER TOOL WITH NAM PROFILE.
MORE CHANGES LATER TODAY.
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...
UPPER LOW FROM KENTUCKY THROUGH GEORGIA WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST
THIS MORNING. BROAD BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT EXTENDS
SOUTH INTO FLORIDA WILL ALSO MOVE NORTHEAST. EXPECT THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THIS PRECIPITATION TO EXIT THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA AROUND
NOON. HRRR HAS THIS BEST TIMING OF THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION SO
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THIS TIMING IN THE FORECAST.
THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL TRACK INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY BY 00Z WED/7PM THIS EVENING...THEN WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTH CAROLINA. MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW SOME Q-VECTOR FORCING AND
GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENCE WITH THIS FEATURE THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM NOSE AROUND 2500 FEET AGL WERE WELL INTO
THE 40S AND 50S. ALREADY SEEING SOME OF THE WARMER AIR MIXING DOWN
TO THE SURFACE WITH THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES. AT THE SAME TIME THE
WEDGE WAS ERODING FROM BOTH THE EAST AND THE WEST. COLD AIR DAMMING
WILL BE NEARLY GONE BY 8AM...WITH ALL LOCATIONS NOT IN THE WEDGE
ABOVE FREEZING AT THE SURFACE. COLDER AIR FROM 850MB DOWN TO THE
SURFACE WILL COME INTO THE MOUNTAINS BEHIND THE UPPER LOW THIS
AFTERNOON THEN REMAIN BETWEEN -2 TO -5 AT 850 MB OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW A NON DIURNAL TREND TODAY. LOCATIONS
THAT ARE ABOVE FREEZING WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE WINTER STORM
WARNING.
AS THE COASTAL FRONT MOVES EAST AND AIDES IN ERODE THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE WEDGE...THE MUCH WARMER AIR OVER THE COLD GROUND AND SNOW
COVER WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD FOG. VISIBILITIES IN SOME LOCATIONS
WILL BE LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE. IF THESE AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE
CONDITIONS BECOMES WIDESPREAD IN THE PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH
CAROLINA A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. BUT AS OF 3AM...THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE WARMER AIR WAS JUST MOVING THROUGH RALEIGH.
NAM...RAP AND LOCAL WRF SUGGEST THE WARM AIR ADVANCES BRIEFLY INTO
THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS MORNING...JUST BEFORE
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND THE WARM AIR GETS PUSHED BACK EAST.
WINDS ARE ANOTHER RAPIDLY CHANGING FACTOR TODAY. ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE WEDGE...DOWNSLOPE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 35
TO 50 MPH...BUT THE BULK OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET THAT WAS
PRODUCING THESE HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE MOVING EAST THIS MORNING AND
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BY 9AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM EST TUESDAY...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...AND MAINTAIN
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES. ALTHOUGH IT MAY
START AS SNOW...TEMPERATURES COULD RISE ENOUGH TO ALLOW A MIX WITH
RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS MAY STAY
AS SNOW AND ACCUMULATE UP TO A COUPLE INCHES. ELSEWHERE...SOME
PASSING CLOUDS AND A BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD BE EXPECTED. BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY FADE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO PUSH
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC...AND SEND OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING.
ALTHOUGH MORE SUNSHINE WILL RETURN BY THURSDAY...A LINGERING
NORTHWEST BREEZE SHOULD KEEP COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH
THE DAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD PULL AWAY FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD
TAKE PLACE. HOWEVER...CLAM WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COMBINED
WITH ANY REMAINING SNOWPACK...SHOULD SEND LOWS BELOW FREEZING FOR
ANOTHER NIGHT. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WERE HELD ON THE COLDER
SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY
RESIDUAL 500 MB TROUGH WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ON
THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS START TO BUILD FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A RATHER
POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT WILL BE CROSSING
THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BOOT A SURFACE WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LINGERING WEDGE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH REPOSITIONS OFF THE CAROLINAS
BY LATE FRIDAY. RAPID JUMP IN 85H TEMPERATURES UNDER THE
DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE RIDGE LOOKS TO PUSH HIGHS TO JUST ABOVE
NORMAL AFTER REMAINING COOL THURSDAY UNDER THE CANADIAN HIGH TO
THE NORTH. HOWEVER GIVEN SOME LINGERING SNOW PACK AND EVOLVING
TRANSITION OF THE SURFACE HIGH...WILL STAY A BIT BELOW MOS FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY EAST. OTHERWISE DRY BUT STILL ON THE COLD SIDE THURSDAY
NIGHT THEN WARMER FRIDAY.
MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PASS TO THE NORTH TO
START THE WEEKEND WHILE ALLOWING ITS TRAILING TROUGH AXIS TO
FLATTEN THE ONGOING MID LEVEL RIDGING TO SOME DEGREE. THE
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD PRESS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
BUT GIVEN VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...AND MOST COLD ADVECTION TO THE
NORTH APPEARS ONLY A FEW RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY FAR WEST.
WITH COOL AIR LIKELY TO LAG THE FRONT AND LESS CLOUDS HEADING EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS...WOULD EXPECT TEMPS TO REALLY JUMP UNDER
WESTERLY FLOW WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL...MAINLY 50S WEST TO
60S EAST. WEAK BUBBLE HIGH WILL FOLLOW THIS WEAK FRONT ON SUNDAY
WITH SKIES CLEARING BEFORE RETURN MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN LATER
IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGHS. TIMING OF THIS
MOISTURE ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TO
PERHAPS SLOW UP THE NEXT FRONT....PER THE EARLIER EC...SUPPORTS
MAINLY DRY AND CONTINUED MILD SUNDAY. SLOW RETURN TO EASTERN
TROFFINESS APPEARS TO BE IN ORDER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THIS
NEXT FRONT SLIDING ACROSS PRODUCING THE NEED FOR LOW RAIN SHOWER
POPS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BUT STILL OVERALL A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL FOR DAY 7.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM EST TUESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER DURING THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. TIMING OF THE CHANGES IS MORE QUESTIONABLE AT ALL
TAF SITES.
WEDGE OF COLD AIR ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WAS ERODING AND
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMB AT KROA AND KLYH THIS MORNING
FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO RAIN. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL PUSH A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH IFR TO MVFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGH KLYH AND KDAN THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BEHIND THIS LOW.
AS WINDS SWITCH TO THE WEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW...LLWS
WILL END BUT GUSTY SURFACE WINDS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST ARE
POSSIBLE. EXPECT MAXIMUM WINDS GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
A LOW COMING OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW INTO THE
AREA ALONG WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE EXITING THE AREA EAST OF KDAN BY THE 12Z END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTH OF KROA AND KLYH OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPSLOPE IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS. VISIBILITIES AT KBLF AND KLWB WILL OCCASIONALLY DROP
TO MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. BY THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD...AND BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES
THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS TO THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY...BUT IT COULD SPARK SOME MOUNTAIN RAIN SHOWERS
AND LOWER CEILINGS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 1025 AM EST TUESDAY...
PRECIPITATION DONE FOR THIS EVENT AND NOW WATCHING TO SEE IF
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES DEVELOP. A FEW FLOOD ADVISORIES AND
AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS WERE ISSUED WITH THE HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT BUT
VERY LITTLE HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS. STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION (2-DAY) IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND RAIN (MUCH OF IT
FREEZING) HAS RANGED GENERALLY FROM 1 TO 2.5 INCHES WITH UP TO 3+
INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF BEDFORD...EASTERN FRANKLIN AND SOUTHERN
BOTETOURT COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH THIS IS RADAR INDICATED AND NOT
WELL CORROBORATED BY RAIN GAGES. WITH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT RAIN
FALLING ONTO AND INTO A SUBSTANTIAL SNOWPACK THE HYDROLOGIC
RESPONSE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT MUTED. FORECASTS ON THE JAMES HAVE BEEN
REDUCED SLIGHTLY FROM YESTERDAY AND ARE NOW EXPECTING RISES TO
BELOW ACTION STAGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SCOTTSVILLE. BOTH THE NEW
AND GREENBRIER WILL SEE VERY MODEST RISES DUE TO THE SNOWPACK
ABSORBTION AND ONLY SLOW MELT OVER COMING DAYS. THE ONLY FORECAST
POINT SHOWING RFC GUIDANCE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE IS THE DAN RIVER AT
SOUTH BOSTON. IF IT DOES GO ABOVE THIS WOULD BE THE 8TH SEPARATE
FLOOD STAGE EXCEEDANCE SINCE LAST OCTOBER.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JH/RCS
AVIATION...AMS/PW
HYDROLOGY...PC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1034 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
CANADA BY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
TRACK INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THIS EVENING...THEN OFFSHORE BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...
UPPER LOW FROM KENTUCKY THROUGH GEORGIA WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST
THIS MORNING. BROAD BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT EXTENDS
SOUTH INTO FLORIDA WILL ALSO MOVE NORTHEAST. EXPECT THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THIS PRECIPITATION TO EXIT THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA AROUND
NOON. HRRR HAS THIS BEST TIMING OF THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION SO
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THIS TIMING IN THE FORECAST.
THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL TRACK INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY BY 00Z WED/7PM THIS EVENING...THEN WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTH CAROLINA. MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW SOME Q-VECTOR FORCING AND
GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENCE WITH THIS FEATURE THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM NOSE AROUND 2500 FEET AGL WERE WELL INTO
THE 40S AND 50S. ALREADY SEEING SOME OF THE WARMER AIR MIXING DOWN
TO THE SURFACE WITH THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES. AT THE SAME TIME THE
WEDGE WAS ERODING FROM BOTH THE EAST AND THE WEST. COLD AIR DAMMING
WILL BE NEARLY GONE BY 8AM...WITH ALL LOCATIONS NOT IN THE WEDGE
ABOVE FREEZING AT THE SURFACE. COLDER AIR FROM 850MB DOWN TO THE
SURFACE WILL COME INTO THE MOUNTAINS BEHIND THE UPPER LOW THIS
AFTERNOON THEN REMAIN BETWEEN -2 TO -5 AT 850 MB OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW A NON DIURNAL TREND TODAY. LOCATIONS
THAT ARE ABOVE FREEZING WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE WINTER STORM
WARNING.
AS THE COASTAL FRONT MOVES EAST AND AIDES IN ERODE THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE WEDGE...THE MUCH WARMER AIR OVER THE COLD GROUND AND SNOW
COVER WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD FOG. VISIBILITIES IN SOME LOCATIONS
WILL BE LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE. IF THESE AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE
CONDITIONS BECOMES WIDESPREAD IN THE PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH
CAROLINA A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. BUT AS OF 3AM...THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE WARMER AIR WAS JUST MOVING THROUGH RALEIGH.
NAM...RAP AND LOCAL WRF SUGGEST THE WARM AIR ADVANCES BRIEFLY INTO
THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS MORNING...JUST BEFORE
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND THE WARM AIR GETS PUSHED BACK EAST.
WINDS ARE ANOTHER RAPIDLY CHANGING FACTOR TODAY. ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE WEDGE...DOWNSLOPE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 35
TO 50 MPH...BUT THE BULK OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET THAT WAS
PRODUCING THESE HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE MOVING EAST THIS MORNING AND
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BY 9AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM EST TUESDAY...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...AND MAINTAIN
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES. ALTHOUGH IT MAY
START AS SNOW...TEMPERATURES COULD RISE ENOUGH TO ALLOW A MIX WITH
RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS MAY STAY
AS SNOW AND ACCUMULATE UP TO A COUPLE INCHES. ELSEWHERE...SOME
PASSING CLOUDS AND A BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD BE EXPECTED. BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY FADE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO PUSH
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC...AND SEND OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING.
ALTHOUGH MORE SUNSHINE WILL RETURN BY THURSDAY...A LINGERING
NORTHWEST BREEZE SHOULD KEEP COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH
THE DAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD PULL AWAY FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD
TAKE PLACE. HOWEVER...CLAM WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COMBINED
WITH ANY REMAINING SNOWPACK...SHOULD SEND LOWS BELOW FREEZING FOR
ANOTHER NIGHT. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WERE HELD ON THE COLDER
SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY
RESIDUAL 500 MB TROUGH WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ON
THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS START TO BUILD FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A RATHER
POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT WILL BE CROSSING
THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BOOT A SURFACE WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LINGERING WEDGE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH REPOSITIONS OFF THE CAROLINAS
BY LATE FRIDAY. RAPID JUMP IN 85H TEMPERATURES UNDER THE
DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE RIDGE LOOKS TO PUSH HIGHS TO JUST ABOVE
NORMAL AFTER REMAINING COOL THURSDAY UNDER THE CANADIAN HIGH TO
THE NORTH. HOWEVER GIVEN SOME LINGERING SNOW PACK AND EVOLVING
TRANSITION OF THE SURFACE HIGH...WILL STAY A BIT BELOW MOS FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY EAST. OTHERWISE DRY BUT STILL ON THE COLD SIDE THURSDAY
NIGHT THEN WARMER FRIDAY.
MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PASS TO THE NORTH TO
START THE WEEKEND WHILE ALLOWING ITS TRAILING TROUGH AXIS TO
FLATTEN THE ONGOING MID LEVEL RIDGING TO SOME DEGREE. THE
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD PRESS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
BUT GIVEN VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...AND MOST COLD ADVECTION TO THE
NORTH APPEARS ONLY A FEW RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY FAR WEST.
WITH COOL AIR LIKELY TO LAG THE FRONT AND LESS CLOUDS HEADING EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS...WOULD EXPECT TEMPS TO REALLY JUMP UNDER
WESTERLY FLOW WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL...MAINLY 50S WEST TO
60S EAST. WEAK BUBBLE HIGH WILL FOLLOW THIS WEAK FRONT ON SUNDAY
WITH SKIES CLEARING BEFORE RETURN MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN LATER
IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGHS. TIMING OF THIS
MOISTURE ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TO
PERHAPS SLOW UP THE NEXT FRONT....PER THE EARLIER EC...SUPPORTS
MAINLY DRY AND CONTINUED MILD SUNDAY. SLOW RETURN TO EASTERN
TROFFINESS APPEARS TO BE IN ORDER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THIS
NEXT FRONT SLIDING ACROSS PRODUCING THE NEED FOR LOW RAIN SHOWER
POPS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BUT STILL OVERALL A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL FOR DAY 7.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM EST TUESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER DURING THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. TIMING OF THE CHANGES IS MORE QUESTIONABLE AT ALL
TAF SITES.
WEDGE OF COLD AIR ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WAS ERODING AND
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMB AT KROA AND KLYH THIS MORNING
FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO RAIN. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL PUSH A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH IFR TO MVFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGH KLYH AND KDAN THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BEHIND THIS LOW.
AS WINDS SWITCH TO THE WEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW...LLWS
WILL END BUT GUSTY SURFACE WINDS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST ARE
POSSIBLE. EXPECT MAXIMUM WINDS GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
A LOW COMING OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW INTO THE
AREA ALONG WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE EXITING THE AREA EAST OF KDAN BY THE 12Z END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTH OF KROA AND KLYH OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPSLOPE IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS. VISIBILITIES AT KBLF AND KLWB WILL OCCASIONALLY DROP
TO MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. BY THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD...AND BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES
THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS TO THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY...BUT IT COULD SPARK SOME MOUNTAIN RAIN SHOWERS
AND LOWER CEILINGS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 1025 AM EST TUESDAY...
PRECIPITATION DONE FOR THIS EVENT AND NOW WATCHING TO SEE IF
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES DEVELOP. A FEW FLOOD ADVISORIES AND
AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS WERE ISSUED WITH THE HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT BUT
VERY LITTLE HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS. STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION (2-DAY) IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND RAIN (MUCH OF IT
FREEZING) HAS RANGED GENERALLY FROM 1 TO 2.5 INCHES WITH UP TO 3+
INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF BEDFORD...EASTERN FRANKLIN AND SOUTHERN
BOTETOURT COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH THIS IS RADAR INDICATED AND NOT
WELL CORROBORATED BY RAIN GAGES. WITH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT RAIN
FALLING ONTO AND INTO A SUBSTANTIAL SNOWPACK THE HYDROLOGIC
RESPONSE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT MUTED. FORECASTS ON THE JAMES HAVE BEEN
REDUCED SLIGHTLY FROM YESTERDAY AND ARE NOW EXPECTING RISES TO
BELOW ACTION STAGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SCOTTSVILLE. BOTH THE NEW
AND GREENBRIER WILL SEE VERY MODEST RISES DUE TO THE SNOWPACK
ABSORBTION AND ONLY SLOW MELT OVER COMING DAYS. THE ONLY FORECAST
POINT SHOWING RFC GUIDANCE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE IS THE DAN RIVER AT
SOUTH BOSTON. IF IT DOES GO ABOVE THIS WOULD BE THE 8TH SEPARATE
FLOOD STAGE EXCEEDANCE SINCE LAST OCTOBER.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JH/RCS
AVIATION...AMS/PW
HYDROLOGY...PC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
721 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
CANADA BY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
TRACK INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THIS EVENING...THEN OFFSHORE BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...
UPPER LOW FROM KENTUCKY THROUGH GEORGIA WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST
THIS MORNING. BROAD BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT EXTENDS
SOUTH INTO FLORIDA WILL ALSO MOVE NORTHEAST. EXPECT THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THIS PRECIPITATION TO EXIT THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA AROUND
NOON. HRRR HAS THIS BEST TIMING OF THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION SO
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THIS TIMING IN THE FORECAST.
THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL TRACK INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY BY 00Z WED/7PM THIS EVENING...THEN WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTH CAROLINA. MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW SOME Q-VECTOR FORCING AND
GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENCE WITH THIS FEATURE THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM NOSE AROUND 2500 FEET AGL WERE WELL INTO
THE 40S AND 50S. ALREADY SEEING SOME OF THE WARMER AIR MIXING DOWN
TO THE SURFACE WITH THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES. AT THE SAME TIME THE
WEDGE WAS ERODING FROM BOTH THE EAST AND THE WEST. COLD AIR DAMMING
WILL BE NEARLY GONE BY 8AM...WITH ALL LOCATIONS NOT IN THE WEDGE
ABOVE FREEZING AT THE SURFACE. COLDER AIR FROM 850MB DOWN TO THE
SURFACE WILL COME INTO THE MOUNTAINS BEHIND THE UPPER LOW THIS
AFTERNOON THEN REMAIN BETWEEN -2 TO -5 AT 850 MB OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW A NON DIURNAL TREND TODAY. LOCATIONS
THAT ARE ABOVE FREEZING WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE WINTER STORM
WARNING.
AS THE COASTAL FRONT MOVES EAST AND AIDES IN ERODE THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE WEDGE...THE MUCH WARMER AIR OVER THE COLD GROUND AND SNOW
COVER WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD FOG. VISIBILITIES IN SOME LOCATIONS
WILL BE LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE. IF THESE AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE
CONDITIONS BECOMES WIDESPREAD IN THE PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH
CAROLINA A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. BUT AS OF 3AM...THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE WARMER AIR WAS JUST MOVING THROUGH RALEIGH.
NAM...RAP AND LOCAL WRF SUGGEST THE WARM AIR ADVANCES BRIEFLY INTO
THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS MORNING...JUST BEFORE
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND THE WARM AIR GETS PUSHED BACK EAST.
WINDS ARE ANOTHER RAPIDLY CHANGING FACTOR TODAY. ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE WEDGE...DOWNSLOPE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 35
TO 50 MPH...BUT THE BULK OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET THAT WAS
PRODUCING THESE HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE MOVING EAST THIS MORNING AND
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BY 9AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM EST TUESDAY...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...AND MAINTAIN
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES. ALTHOUGH IT MAY
START AS SNOW...TEMPERATURES COULD RISE ENOUGH TO ALLOW A MIX WITH
RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS MAY STAY
AS SNOW AND ACCUMULATE UP TO A COUPLE INCHES. ELSEWHERE...SOME
PASSING CLOUDS AND A BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD BE EXPECTED. BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY FADE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO PUSH
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC...AND SEND OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING.
ALTHOUGH MORE SUNSHINE WILL RETURN BY THURSDAY...A LINGERING
NORTHWEST BREEZE SHOULD KEEP COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH
THE DAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD PULL AWAY FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD
TAKE PLACE. HOWEVER...CLAM WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COMBINED
WITH ANY REMAINING SNOWPACK...SHOULD SEND LOWS BELOW FREEZING FOR
ANOTHER NIGHT. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WERE HELD ON THE COLDER
SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY
RESIDUAL 500 MB TROUGH WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ON
THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS START TO BUILD FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A RATHER
POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT WILL BE CROSSING
THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BOOT A SURFACE WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LINGERING WEDGE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH REPOSITIONS OFF THE CAROLINAS
BY LATE FRIDAY. RAPID JUMP IN 85H TEMPERATURES UNDER THE
DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE RIDGE LOOKS TO PUSH HIGHS TO JUST ABOVE
NORMAL AFTER REMAINING COOL THURSDAY UNDER THE CANADIAN HIGH TO
THE NORTH. HOWEVER GIVEN SOME LINGERING SNOW PACK AND EVOLVING
TRANSITION OF THE SURFACE HIGH...WILL STAY A BIT BELOW MOS FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY EAST. OTHERWISE DRY BUT STILL ON THE COLD SIDE THURSDAY
NIGHT THEN WARMER FRIDAY.
MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PASS TO THE NORTH TO
START THE WEEKEND WHILE ALLOWING ITS TRAILING TROUGH AXIS TO
FLATTEN THE ONGOING MID LEVEL RIDGING TO SOME DEGREE. THE
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD PRESS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
BUT GIVEN VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...AND MOST COLD ADVECTION TO THE
NORTH APPEARS ONLY A FEW RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY FAR WEST.
WITH COOL AIR LIKELY TO LAG THE FRONT AND LESS CLOUDS HEADING EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS...WOULD EXPECT TEMPS TO REALLY JUMP UNDER
WESTERLY FLOW WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL...MAINLY 50S WEST TO
60S EAST. WEAK BUBBLE HIGH WILL FOLLOW THIS WEAK FRONT ON SUNDAY
WITH SKIES CLEARING BEFORE RETURN MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN LATER
IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGHS. TIMING OF THIS
MOISTURE ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TO
PERHAPS SLOW UP THE NEXT FRONT....PER THE EARLIER EC...SUPPORTS
MAINLY DRY AND CONTINUED MILD SUNDAY. SLOW RETURN TO EASTERN
TROFFINESS APPEARS TO BE IN ORDER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THIS
NEXT FRONT SLIDING ACROSS PRODUCING THE NEED FOR LOW RAIN SHOWER
POPS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BUT STILL OVERALL A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL FOR DAY 7.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM EST TUESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER DURING THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. TIMING OF THE CHANGES IS MORE QUESTIONABLE AT ALL
TAF SITES.
WEDGE OF COLD AIR ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WAS ERODING AND
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMB AT KROA AND KLYH THIS MORNING
FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO RAIN. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL PUSH A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH IFR TO MVFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGH KLYH AND KDAN THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BEHIND THIS LOW.
AS WINDS SWITCH TO THE WEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW...LLWS
WILL END BUT GUSTY SURFACE WINDS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST ARE
POSSIBLE. EXPECT MAXIMUM WINDS GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
A LOW COMING OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW INTO THE
AREA ALONG WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE EXITING THE AREA EAST OF KDAN BY THE 12Z END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTH OF KROA AND KLYH OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPSLOPE IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS. VISIBILITIES AT KBLF AND KLWB WILL OCCASIONALLY DROP
TO MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. BY THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD...AND BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES
THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS TO THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY...BUT IT COULD SPARK SOME MOUNTAIN RAIN SHOWERS
AND LOWER CEILINGS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 505 AM EST TUESDAY...
TRANSITION FROM A WINTER EVENT TO POTENTIAL FOR HYDRO EVENT
CONTINUES TO BE ONE OF THE ISSUES ON THE TABLE. ACCUMULATING SNOW
WAS FINISHED ACROSS THE CWA AS THE WARM NOSE WORKS FURTHER NORTH.
WIDESPREAD 5 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW WAS OBSERVED WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT COUNTIES WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES. WITH SNOW-
LIQUID RATIOS RUNNING CLOSE TO 10:1 WE HAVE A SOLID 0.50 TO 1 INCH
OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT ON THE GROUND.
PRECIPITATION WAS CHANGING TO ALL LIQUID FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE MODERATE RAIN FALLS OVER THE
SNOW AND ICE...THERE HAS BEEN WIDESPREAD PONDING OF WATER AND SOME
OF THE RAIN HAD BEEN RUNNING OFF THE SURFACE OF THE ICE AND SNOW.
AT THIS TIME WE HAVE RECEIVED NO REPORTS OF ANYTHING MORE THAN
NUISANCE FLOODING.
BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC QPF NEXT 24 HOURS... WHICH IS RUNNING IN
THE 1.00 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE CWA-WIDE THROUGH 12Z/7AM THIS MORNING.NORMALLY
THIS AMOUNT WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME FLOODING BOTH SHORT-FUSE
(FLASH) AND LONG-FUSE (RIVERS). BUT THE EXISTING SNOWPACK IS A BIG
COMPLICATING FACTOR. IT WILL ABSORB QUITE A BIT OF RAIN AND
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT REGIME IT COULD BE
THAT MOST IS ABSORBED...WITH ONLY LIMITED RUNOFF. HENCE...AFTER
COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING WFOS HAVE OPTED TO NOT ISSUE ANY
TYPE OF FLOOD WATCH FOR THE CWA.
ONCE IT ALL MELTS SOME RIVER FLOODING SEEMS VERY
LIKELY..ESPECIALLY ON THE DAN AND LOWER ROANOKE. VARIOUS ENSEMBLE
RIVER FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS UP TO A 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF MINOR
FLOODING ON THE LOWER DAN AND MORE LIKE 30 PERCENT ALONG PARTS OF
THE JAMES RIVER WITHIN A FEW DAYS. ALTHOUGH THE SIGNAL FOR
WIDESPREAD FLOODING REMAINS AMBIGUOUS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY
EVOLVING QPF FORECASTS AND THE OBSERVED AND MODELED RATE OF
SNOWMELT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ011-013-014-
017>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ004>006.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ043-044-507-
508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JH/RCS
AVIATION...AMS/PW
HYDROLOGY...AMS/PC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
515 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
CANADA BY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
TRACK INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THIS EVENING...THEN OFFSHORE BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...
UPPER LOW FROM KENTUCKY THROUGH GEORGIA WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST
THIS MORNING. BROAD BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT EXTENDS
SOUTH INTO FLORIDA WILL ALSO MOVE NORTHEAST. EXPECT THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THIS PRECIPITATION TO EXIT THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA AROUND
NOON. HRRR HAS THIS BEST TIMING OF THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION SO
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THIS TIMING IN THE FORECAST.
THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL TRACK INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY BY 00Z WED/7PM THIS EVENING...THEN WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTH CAROLINA. MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW SOME Q-VECTOR FORCING AND
GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENCE WITH THIS FEATURE THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM NOSE AROUND 2500 FEET AGL WERE WELL INTO
THE 40S AND 50S. ALREADY SEEING SOME OF THE WARMER AIR MIXING DOWN
TO THE SURFACE WITH THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES. AT THE SAME TIME THE
WEDGE WAS ERODING FROM BOTH THE EAST AND THE WEST. COLD AIR DAMMING
WILL BE NEARLY GONE BY 8AM...WITH ALL LOCATIONS NOT IN THE WEDGE
ABOVE FREEZING AT THE SURFACE. COLDER AIR FROM 850MB DOWN TO THE
SURFACE WILL COME INTO THE MOUNTAINS BEHIND THE UPPER LOW THIS
AFTERNOON THEN REMAIN BETWEEN -2 TO -5 AT 850 MB OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW A NON DIURNAL TREND TODAY. LOCATIONS
THAT ARE ABOVE FREEZING WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE WINTER STORM
WARNING.
AS THE COASTAL FRONT MOVES EAST AND AIDES IN ERODE THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE WEDGE...THE MUCH WARMER AIR OVER THE COLD GROUND AND SNOW
COVER WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD FOG. VISIBILITIES IN SOME LOCATIONS
WILL BE LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE. IF THESE AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE
CONDITIONS BECOMES WIDESPREAD IN THE PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH
CAROLINA A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. BUT AS OF 3AM...THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE WARMER AIR WAS JUST MOVING THROUGH RALEIGH.
NAM...RAP AND LOCAL WRF SUGGEST THE WARM AIR ADVANCES BRIEFLY INTO
THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS MORNING...JUST BEFORE
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND THE WARM AIR GETS PUSHED BACK EAST.
WINDS ARE ANOTHER RAPIDLY CHANGING FACTOR TODAY. ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE WEDGE...DOWNSLOPE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 35
TO 50 MPH...BUT THE BULK OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET THAT WAS
PRODUCING THESE HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE MOVING EAST THIS MORNING AND
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BY 9AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM EST TUESDAY...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...AND MAINTAIN
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES. ALTHOUGH IT MAY
START AS SNOW...TEMPERATURES COULD RISE ENOUGH TO ALLOW A MIX WITH
RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS MAY STAY
AS SNOW AND ACCUMULATE UP TO A COUPLE INCHES. ELSEWHERE...SOME
PASSING CLOUDS AND A BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD BE EXPECTED. BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY FADE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO PUSH
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC...AND SEND OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING.
ALTHOUGH MORE SUNSHINE WILL RETURN BY THURSDAY...A LINGERING
NORTHWEST BREEZE SHOULD KEEP COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH
THE DAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD PULL AWAY FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD
TAKE PLACE. HOWEVER...CLAM WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COMBINED
WITH ANY REMAINING SNOWPACK...SHOULD SEND LOWS BELOW FREEZING FOR
ANOTHER NIGHT. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WERE HELD ON THE COLDER
SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY
RESIDUAL 500 MB TROUGH WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ON
THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS START TO BUILD FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A RATHER
POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT WILL BE CROSSING
THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BOOT A SURFACE WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LINGERING WEDGE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH REPOSITIONS OFF THE CAROLINAS
BY LATE FRIDAY. RAPID JUMP IN 85H TEMPERATURES UNDER THE
DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE RIDGE LOOKS TO PUSH HIGHS TO JUST ABOVE
NORMAL AFTER REMAINING COOL THURSDAY UNDER THE CANADIAN HIGH TO
THE NORTH. HOWEVER GIVEN SOME LINGERING SNOW PACK AND EVOLVING
TRANSITION OF THE SURFACE HIGH...WILL STAY A BIT BELOW MOS FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY EAST. OTHERWISE DRY BUT STILL ON THE COLD SIDE THURSDAY
NIGHT THEN WARMER FRIDAY.
MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PASS TO THE NORTH TO
START THE WEEKEND WHILE ALLOWING ITS TRAILING TROUGH AXIS TO
FLATTEN THE ONGOING MID LEVEL RIDGING TO SOME DEGREE. THE
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD PRESS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
BUT GIVEN VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...AND MOST COLD ADVECTION TO THE
NORTH APPEARS ONLY A FEW RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY FAR WEST.
WITH COOL AIR LIKELY TO LAG THE FRONT AND LESS CLOUDS HEADING EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS...WOULD EXPECT TEMPS TO REALLY JUMP UNDER
WESTERLY FLOW WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL...MAINLY 50S WEST TO
60S EAST. WEAK BUBBLE HIGH WILL FOLLOW THIS WEAK FRONT ON SUNDAY
WITH SKIES CLEARING BEFORE RETURN MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN LATER
IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGHS. TIMING OF THIS
MOISTURE ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TO
PERHAPS SLOW UP THE NEXT FRONT....PER THE EARLIER EC...SUPPORTS
MAINLY DRY AND CONTINUED MILD SUNDAY. SLOW RETURN TO EASTERN
TROFFINESS APPEARS TO BE IN ORDER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THIS
NEXT FRONT SLIDING ACROSS PRODUCING THE NEED FOR LOW RAIN SHOWER
POPS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BUT STILL OVERALL A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL FOR DAY 7.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM EST TUESDAY...
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR LIFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TO OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
SIGNIFICANT ICING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN DUE TO PERIODS OF FREEZING
RAIN...AS TEMPERATURES HOLD JUST BELOW FREEZING AT ALL SITES...EXCEPT
FOR BLF WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALLOWED FOR COLD RAIN TO
FALL. SOUTH WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 30 KT AT BLF THROUGH THE NIGHT
DUE TO A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET.
WARMER AIR ALOFT SHOULD FINALLY ERODE THE COOL WEDGE ON
TUESDAY...SO ANY FREEZING RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TOWARD LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN. HOWEVER...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY NOT
IMPROVE MUCH UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD TURN TO THE
WEST AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES OVERHEAD...AND GUST UP TO 25 KT BY
THE AFTERNOON. WHILE CONDITIONS SHOULD EVENTUALLY REACH VFR FOR
ROA/LYH/DAN DURING THE START OF TUESDAY NIGHT...BLF/LWB/BCB WILL
ENCOUNTER A TRAILING CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT SHOULD SPARK SOME
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND MORE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND POOR FLYING
CONDITIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.
BY THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD...AND BRING A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY...BUT IT
COULD SPARK SOME MOUNTAIN RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 505 AM EST TUESDAY...
TRANSITION FROM A WINTER EVENT TO POTENTIAL FOR HYDRO EVENT
CONTINUES TO BE ONE OF THE ISSUES ON THE TABLE. ACCUMULATING SNOW
WAS FINISHED ACROSS THE CWA AS THE WARM NOSE WORKS FURTHER NORTH.
WIDESPREAD 5 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW WAS OBSERVED WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT COUNTIES WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES. WITH SNOW-
LIQUID RATIOS RUNNING CLOSE TO 10:1 WE HAVE A SOLID 0.50 TO 1 INCH
OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT ON THE GROUND.
PRECIPITATION WAS CHANGING TO ALL LIQUID FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE MODERATE RAIN FALLS OVER THE
SNOW AND ICE...THERE HAS BEEN WIDESPREAD PONDING OF WATER AND SOME
OF THE RAIN HAD BEEN RUNNING OFF THE SURFACE OF THE ICE AND SNOW.
AT THIS TIME WE HAVE RECEIVED NO REPORTS OF ANYTHING MORE THAN
NUISANCE FLOODING.
BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC QPF NEXT 24 HOURS... WHICH IS RUNNING IN
THE 1.00 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE CWA-WIDE THROUGH 12Z/7AM THIS MORNING.NORMALLY
THIS AMOUNT WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME FLOODING BOTH SHORT-FUSE
(FLASH) AND LONG-FUSE (RIVERS). BUT THE EXISTING SNOWPACK IS A BIG
COMPLICATING FACTOR. IT WILL ABSORB QUITE A BIT OF RAIN AND
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT REGIME IT COULD BE
THAT MOST IS ABSORBED...WITH ONLY LIMITED RUNOFF. HENCE...AFTER
COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING WFOS HAVE OPTED TO NOT ISSUE ANY
TYPE OF FLOOD WATCH FOR THE CWA.
ONCE IT ALL MELTS SOME RIVER FLOODING SEEMS VERY
LIKELY..ESPECIALLY ON THE DAN AND LOWER ROANOKE. VARIOUS ENSEMBLE
RIVER FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS UP TO A 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF MINOR
FLOODING ON THE LOWER DAN AND MORE LIKE 30 PERCENT ALONG PARTS OF
THE JAMES RIVER WITHIN A FEW DAYS. ALTHOUGH THE SIGNAL FOR
WIDESPREAD FLOODING REMAINS AMBIGUOUS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY
EVOLVING QPF FORECASTS AND THE OBSERVED AND MODELED RATE OF
SNOWMELT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ011-013-014-
017>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ004>006.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ043-044-507-
508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JH/RCS
AVIATION...PW
HYDROLOGY...AMS/PC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
343 PM MST TUE FEB 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST TUE FEB 16 2016
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW /120-130KT MAXIMA/ WAS ANGLING ACRS CNTRL
WY/EXTRM NERN CO AND WRN KS AT THIS TIME. CROSS SECTIONS ALSO SHOW
AMPLIFICATION OF A LEE SIDE MTN WAVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG MTN TOP INVERSION...AS WELL AS
MODEST ENHANCEMENT OF THE SFC LEE TROUGH. DO NOT SEE WIND SPEEDS
REACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA WITH THIS SETUP...THOUGH SPEEDS IN A
FEW AREAS PRONE TO HIGH WINDS SUCH AS ALONG THE DUMONT- GEORGETOWN
STRETCH OF I-70...UP AROUND BERTHOUD PASS...AND THE HIGHER
FOOTHILLS WEST OF BOULDER WHERE GUSTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THE
50-60 KT RANGE TODAY. AT THIS HOUR...WLY WINDS IN THE 30-45 KT IN
THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS...AROUND 55 KTS ABOVE TIMBERLINE...AND
25-38 KTS ALONG THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS AND UP NEAR THE WYOMING
BORDER. TODAY`S RUNS OF THE NAM...WRF...HRRR AND RAP HAVE BEEN
HANDLING SPEEDS WELL...BUT THEY`VE NOT BEEN EXTENDING THESE GUSTY
CHINOOK WINDS FAR ENOUGH EAST ACROSS THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR. OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE MTN WAVE RELAXING AND THE
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT LIFTING AND SHIFTING EAST OF THE CWA...SHOULD
SEE WIND SPEEDS LOWERING ON THE PLAINS DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...AND BY AROUND MIDNIGHT/07Z OVER HIGHER EAST SLOPES OF THE
FRONT RANGE. W-NWLY WINDS AROUND TIMBERLINE ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
STRONG AND GUSTY ALL NIGHT. WILL INTRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
IN MTN AREAS WHERE GUSTS WILL LIKELY EXCEED 30 KTS. OTHERWISE
DIMINISHING WINDS ON THE PLAINS SOON AFTER SUNSET AND CLEAR/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S BY
MORNING. THESE TEMPS STILL 10-18 DEGS F ABOVE AVERAGE.
ON WEDNESDAY...LARGE UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST TONIGHT SHIFTS EAST OVER
THE ROCKY MTN REGION WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS SITTING OVER
CENTRAL COLORADO BY LATE IN THE DAY. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO START THE DAY WEAKENS AS IT BECOMES ZONAL. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LIGHT SFC WINDS BOTH MTNS AND PLAINS.
HOWEVER STRONG PRESSURE FALLS UP IN THE DAKOTAS WILL PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF GUSTY SLY GRADIENT WINDS OF 15-25 KTS ON THE ERN
PLAINS OF COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE A WARMER
DAY WITH HIGHS ON THE PLAINS GENERALLY 4-8 DEG F WARMER THAN
TODAY...AND 2-6 DEG F WARMER IN THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS. KEEP IN
MIND...THESE TEMPERATURES ARE 14-20 DEG F ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE
DATE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST TUE FEB 16 2016
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS
WILL PRODUCE A STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS THE TROUGH
NEARS COLORADO THURSDAY...A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS COMBINED WITH THE
WARM AIRMASS WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. THE
RECORD FOR DENVER IS 71 AND THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE IT WILL BE
BROKEN. THE TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS
SNOW BECAUSE IT QUICKLY COOLS BEHIND THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT. AS
THE FRONT RACES EASTWARD...STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
WINDS MAY APPROACH HIGH WIND CRITERIA AND WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.
AIRMASS QUICKLY DRIES BEHIND THE WAVE AND PRECIPITATION WILL END
BY MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
BUT WELL ABOVE AVERAGE STILL. ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH READINGS CLIMBING
INTO THE 60S.
FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL INTENSIFY
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO WILL TURN
NORTHWESTERLY. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH AND DROP
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL. RIGHT NOW THE FLOW IS LOOKING DRY AND
THE ONLY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY. TUESDAY MAY BE WARMER IF THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST TUE FEB 16 2016
STRONG AND GUSTY CHINOOK WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO POTENTIALLY IMPACT
DEPARTURES AND LANDINGS AT KBJC NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AT LEAST
THROUGH 02Z/WED. WINDS AT THIS TIME NOT AN ISSUE AT KAPA AND
KDEN...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY W-NWLY WINDS
OF 15-25 KTS AT THESE AIRPORTS UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. WINDS SHOULD
THEN TURN S-SWLY AFTER DARK AT KAPA AND KDEN AND REMAIN AT SPEEDS
UNDER 13 KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS AT KBJC SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY AT
SPEEDS OF 15-30 KTS AT LEAST THROUGH MID-EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY
DROP OFF BELOW 15 KTS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT LST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
TO BE EXPECTED METRO WIDE. ON WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR S-SWLY WINDS
OF 5-12KTS THROUGH MID-MORNING...THEN A WEAK DENVER CYCLONE
CENTERED OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE METRO AREA WITH PRODUCE
LIGHT N-NELY WINDS OVER WRN SECTIONS OF THE METRO AREA...I.E.
KBJC AND S-SELY WINDS OF 10-20 KTS AT KAPA AND KDEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
O &&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
504 PM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE OFFSHORE
FRIDAY. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...A
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
BAND OF HEAVY RAIN HAS QUICKLY RACED EAST ACROSS THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. WIND GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY
BEEN BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH WITH SOME ISOLATED TREE AND POWER LINE
DAMAGE. THIS LINE WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE CWA BY 22Z. HAVE
TRENDED POPS IN THIS DIRECTION FOLLOWING LATEST RADAR
TRENDS...HRRR...AND RAP DATA. POPS MAY NEED TO BE FURTHER TRENDED
DOWN BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING OVER
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
AS THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO A MORE S OR SSW DIRECTION. GUSTS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE WEAKER WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
SHIFTING EAST.
COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE W AND NW AND CONTINUE DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOLLOWED
A MAV/MET BLEND FOR LOWS WHICH YIELDS READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.
MAY NEED AN SPS FOR BLACK ICE ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY FOR SOME ICY SPOTS IF ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE
REMAINS ON AREA ROADWAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS
MEAN MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE
REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS
PATTERN. THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BEGIN TO SWING ACROSS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT SLOWLY RISING.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY WITH
ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT AHEAD OF IT. THIS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
DURING THE DAY AND MOVES THROUGH AT NIGHT. SKIES SHOULD AVERAGE
PARTLY CLOUDY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS
FORECAST.
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING WELL INTO THE 20S AT NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
ADVECTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA FAIR WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR WITH DAY TIME HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS FROM
THE TEENS THROUGH THE 20S.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST MODELS ALL SHOW LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING
NORTH OF THE AREA AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW LATE IN THE DAY
FRIDAY. AS SFC WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM AS SNOW QUICKLY CHANGES TO RAIN ALONG THE
COAST FIRST THEN INLAND LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
ARE FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS
SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES MOVE QUICKLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
POLAR JET.TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL WITH ONLY LIGHT
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION EVENTS.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER NYSTATE INTO ERN PA WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
EVE. HIGH PRES BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE MIDWEST ON WED.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W BEHIND THE CDFNT THIS EVE AND COND WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR THRU THE NGT. GUSTS DIMINISH AFT 4Z...THEN WLY FLOW
INCREASES DURING THE DAY WED.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT
AND IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT
AND IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT
AND IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT
AND IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT
AND IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT
AND IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WED THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED-FRI...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT...CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.
SW WINDS G20KT LATE.
.SAT...CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN THE MORNING.
W WINDS G20-25KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN AND GREAT SOUTH
BAY...AS STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 35-40 KT ARE STILL
POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING. ON ALL OTHER WATERS...25 TO 30 KT
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED WITH AN ISOLATED GUST TO 35 KT POSSIBLE. GUSTS
SHOULD START TO DIMINISH AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE GALE WARNING MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED A BIT EARLIER IF GUSTS
FALL OFF QUICKER THAN EXPECTED.
THE SCA ON THE HARBOR...PECONIC AND GARDNERS BAYS...AND LONG
ISLAND SOUND MAY ALSO NEED TO BE CANCELLED SOONER AS WINDS MAY
FALL BELOW 25 KT SOONER THAN 06Z. THEREAFTER...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ONCE GALES HAVE ENDED ON THE OCEAN THIS EVENING...A SCA WILL BE
NEEDED AS SEAS WILL BE MUCH SLOWER TO SUBSIDE. SEAS WELL ABOVE 5
FT ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE OCEAN.
WINDS ON THE GREAT SOUTH BAY SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA THIS
EVENING.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY FOR NORTH WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT WITH THE
APPROACH OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15-25 KT WITH THE APPROACH OF
A WARM FRONT AND
SATURDAY FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 KT WITH THE APPROACH OF A
COLD FRONT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ONLY LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION OF LESS THAN 1/4 INCH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT IS FORECAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HAVE CANCELLED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS AND EASTERN WATERS OF LONG ISLAND. SURGE HAS NOT BEEN HIGH
ENOUGH TO PROMOTE WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. A FEW
ISOLATED SPOTS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH MINOR...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
THE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR SW CT COAST REMAINS IN
EFFECT...BUT MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED AS WATER LEVELS SHOULD
MOSTLY STAY BELOW MINOR THRESHOLDS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HAVE CANCELLED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS AND EASTERN WATERS OF LONG ISLAND. SURGE HAS NOT BEEN HIGH
ENOUGH TO PROMOTE WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. A FEW
ISOLATED SPOTS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH MINOR...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
THE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR SW CT COAST REMAINS IN
EFFECT...BUT MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED AS WATER LEVELS SHOULD
MOSTLY STAY BELOW MINOR THRESHOLDS.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
KOKX RADAR IS OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART IS ON
ORDER...BUT A RETURN TO SERVICE TIME IS UNKNOWN.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
338-340.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ345-350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...JMC/GOODMAN
MARINE...GC/DS
HYDROLOGY...GC/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
404 PM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE OFFSHORE
FRIDAY. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...A
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
BAND OF HEAVY RAIN HAS QUICKLY RACED EAST ACROSS THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. WIND GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY
BEEN BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH WITH SOME ISOLATED TREE AND POWER LINE
DAMAGE. THIS LINE WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE CWA BY 22Z. HAVE
TRENDED POPS IN THIS DIRECTION FOLLOWING LATEST RADAR
TRENDS...HRRR...AND RAP DATA. POPS MAY NEED TO BE FURTHER TRENDED
DOWN BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING OVER
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
AS THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO A MORE S OR SSW DIRECTION. GUSTS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE WEAKER WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
SHIFTING EAST.
COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE W AND NW AND CONTINUE DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOLLOWED
A MAV/MET BLEND FOR LOWS WHICH YIELDS READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.
MAY NEED AN SPS FOR BLACK ICE ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY FOR SOME ICY SPOTS IF ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE
REMAINS ON AREA ROADWAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS
MEAN MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE
REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS
PATTERN. THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BEGIN TO SWING ACROSS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT SLOWLY RISING.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY WITH
ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT AHEAD OF IT. THIS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
DURING THE DAY AND MOVES THROUGH AT NIGHT. SKIES SHOULD AVERAGE
PARTLY CLOUDY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS
FORECAST.
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING WELL INTO THE 20S AT NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
ADVECTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA FAIR WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR WITH DAY TIME HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS FROM
THE TEENS THROUGH THE 20S.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST MODELS ALL SHOW LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING
NORTH OF THE AREA AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW LATE IN THE DAY
FRIDAY. AS SFC WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM AS SNOW QUICKLY CHANGES TO RAIN ALONG THE
COAST FIRST THEN INLAND LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
ARE FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS
SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES MOVE QUICKLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
POLAR JET.TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL WITH ONLY LIGHT
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION EVENTS.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT HAS PASSED TO THE NORTH. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING FROM NE PA INTO UPSTATE NY AND QUEBEC WILL DRAG A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ACROSS EARLY THIS EVENING.
NARROW LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION...WITHOUT THUNDER BUT WITH
VERY HEAVY RAIN...STRONG SFC WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL...WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NYC METRO AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS
BETWEEN 19Z-20Z...ACROSS KBDR/KISP 20Z-21Z...AND KGON 21Z-22Z.
THIS LINE COULD TAP INTO VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT THE ARE ALREADY
CAUSING LLWS AND PRODUCE BRIEF WIND GUSTS 40-50 KT AND LIFR VSBY.
AFTER IT MOVES THROUGH...PREVAILING GUSTY SE FLOW 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS 30-35 KT SHOULD TURN SOUTHERLY AND DIMINISH TO 15-20G25-30KT
WITH FLIGHT CAT IMPROVING TO MVFR...THEN SHIFT WNW AFTER COLD
FROPA AND DIMINISH FURTHER WITH VFR CONDS.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: PEAK FL020 WINDS 17080KT 18Z-20Z.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: PEAK FL020 WINDS 17075KT 18Z-20Z.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: PEAK FL020 WINDS 17075KT 18Z-20Z.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: PEAK FL020 WINDS 17075KT 18Z-20Z.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: PEAK FL020 WINDS 17075KT 18Z-20Z.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: PEAK FL020 WINDS 17085KT 19Z-21Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WED THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED-FRI...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT...CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.
SW WINDS G20KT LATE.
.SAT...CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN THE MORNING.
W WINDS G20-25KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN AND GREAT SOUTH
BAY...AS STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 35-40 KT ARE STILL
POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING. ON ALL OTHER WATERS...25 TO 30 KT
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED WITH AN ISOLATED GUST TO 35 KT POSSIBLE. GUSTS
SHOULD START TO DIMINISH AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE GALE WARNING MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED A BIT EARLIER IF GUSTS
FALL OFF QUICKER THAN EXPECTED.
THE SCA ON THE HARBOR...PECONIC AND GARDNERS BAYS...AND LONG
ISLAND SOUND MAY ALSO NEED TO BE CANCELLED SOONER AS WINDS MAY
FALL BELOW 25 KT SOONER THAN 06Z. THEREAFTER...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ONCE GALES HAVE ENDED ON THE OCEAN THIS EVENING...A SCA WILL BE
NEEDED AS SEAS WILL BE MUCH SLOWER TO SUBSIDE. SEAS WELL ABOVE 5
FT ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE OCEAN.
WINDS ON THE GREAT SOUTH BAY SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA THIS
EVENING.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE ON
...THURSDAY FOR NORTH WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT WITH THE
APPROACH OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
...FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15-25 KT WITH THE APPROACH OF
A WARM FRONT AND
...SATURDAY FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 KT WITH THE APPROACH OF A
COLD FRONT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ONLY LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION OF LESS THAN 1/4 INCH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT IS FORECAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HAVE CANCELLED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS AND EASTERN WATERS OF LONG ISLAND. SURGE HAS NOT BEEN HIGH
ENOUGH TO PROMOTE WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. A FEW
ISOLATED SPOTS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH MINOR...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
THE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR SW CT COAST REMAINS IN
EFFECT...BUT MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED AS WATER LEVELS SHOULD
MOSTLY STAY BELOW MINOR THRESHOLDS.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
KOKX RADAR IS OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART IS ON
ORDER...BUT A RETURN TO SERVICE TIME IS UNKNOWN.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
338-340.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ345-350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...GC/DS
HYDROLOGY...GC/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
120 PM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS TODAY BEFORE MOVING
INTO EASTERN CANADA BY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON WEDNESDAY...THEN CROSSES THE TRI-STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLIDES OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN LIFTS TO THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGION WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BAND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED
WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM CENTRAL PA INTO UPSTATE
NEW YORK. WITHIN THE BAND OF RAIN IS A FINE LINE OF HEAVY
RAINFALL STRETCHING FROM SE PA THROUGH SOUTHERN NJ. ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FINE LINE IS VERY STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE. LOW LEVEL JET AT 925 MB PROGGED BY THE NAM TO BE BETWEEN
80 AND 85 KT ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE SEEN A FEW OBSERVATIONS OF GUSTS CLOSE TO 50
MPH ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS FINE LINE. LATEST RADAR TRENDS
TAKE IT INTO THE NYC/NJ METRO AROUND 19Z. ANY STRONG WIND GUST
POTENTIAL WILL BE HANDLED WITH SHORT FUSED PRODUCTS. ONCE THE LINE
MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS DECREASING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES EAST.
HAVE UPDATED POPS AND WX GRIDS...WITH INCREASED EMPHASIS ON GUSTY
WIND POTENTIAL AND THE ADDITION OF ISOLATED THUNDER. LIMITED
CAPE...BUT WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG FORCING...IT WOULD
NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. POPS
TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY DOWNWARD ONCE THE RAIN MOVES EAST. BLENDED
LATEST HRRR AND RAP POPS. IN GENERAL...AROUND 1" OF LIQUID
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. NOT
EXPECTING FLASH FLOODING...BUT MINOR URBAN FLOODING DUE TO EXCESS
RUNOFF AND MINOR RISES IN AREA RIVERS ARE POSSIBLE.
COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. WINDS SHIFT
TO THE NW AND DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY...BECOMING LESS THAN 10 MPH
THIS EVENING.
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY...LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO
THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO THE MID 30S NEAR THE COAST.
WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON ROADWAYS...SOME ICY SPOTS MAY DEVELOP
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MEAN TROUGHING BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN U.S. WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. LOW LEVELS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY...SO OUTSIDE OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER FAR W
ORANGE COUNTY FOR SNOW SHOWERS (COULD SEE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES THERE) ON WEDNESDAY...HAVE
GONE DRY IN THIS TIME FRAME.
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE DRY
THEN AS WELL.
FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE...A MIX DOWN
FROM 925 HPA...AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED. A BLEND OF
MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED FOR
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. READINGS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL IN BOTH PERIODS.
FOR HIGHS THURSDAY...A BLEND OF MET/MET GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900 HPA WAS USED. A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT. VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH PERIODS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE KEEPING THINGS DRY.
MULTIPLE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN
PASS TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. HAVE CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE FRIDAY
NIGHT...FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...AND A WINTRY MIX
TO SNOW FOR NORTHERN ZONES. ON SATURDAY...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WEST 1/3 AS SHORTWAVES APPEAR TO EXIT FAIRLY QUICKLY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO
ALL RAIN THROUGHOUT BY AFTERNOON.
SHORTWAVE 700-500 HPA RIDGING CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING ON SUNDAY. THERE IS
SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THESE FEATURES...BUT WITH DRY LOW
LEVELS...FOR NOW EXPECT THE SHORTWAVE TO PASS THROUGH DRY...SO HAVE
GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR BOTH PERIODS.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS/CMC/GEFS MEAN...SO LEANED
TOWARDS THE LARGER CONSENSUS IN THIS TIME FRAME...WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS TO BE MAINLY A RAIN EVENT...WITH MAYBE SOME MIXING IN OF
SNOW OVER FAR NW ZONES. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM...THIS IS COULD CHANGE.
FOR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY-MONDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED...WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...GIVING WAY TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT HAS PASSED TO THE NORTH. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING FROM NE PA INTO UPSTATE NY AND QUEBEC WILL DRAG A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ACROSS EARLY THIS EVENING.
NARROW LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION...WITHOUT THUNDER BUT WITH
VERY HEAVY RAIN...STRONG SFC WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL...WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NYC METRO AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS
BETWEEN 19Z-20Z...ACROSS KBDR/KISP 20Z-21Z...AND KGON 21Z-22Z.
THIS LINE COULD TAP INTO VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT THE ARE ALREADY
CAUSING LLWS AND PRODUCE BRIEF WIND GUSTS 40-50 KT AND LIFR VSBY.
AFTER IT MOVES THROUGH...PREVAILING GUSTY SE FLOW 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS 30-35 KT SHOULD TURN SOUTHERLY AND DIMINISH TO 15-20G25-30KT
WITH FLIGHT CAT IMPROVING TO MVFR...THEN SHIFT WNW AFTER COLD
FROPA AND DIMINISH FURTHER WITH VFR CONDS.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: PEAK FL020 WINDS 17080KT 18Z-20Z.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: PEAK FL020 WINDS 17075KT 18Z-20Z.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: PEAK FL020 WINDS 17075KT 18Z-20Z.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: PEAK FL020 WINDS 17075KT 18Z-20Z.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: PEAK FL020 WINDS 17075KT 18Z-20Z.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: PEAK FL020 WINDS 17085KT 19Z-21Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WED THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED-FRI...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT...CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.
SW WINDS G20KT LATE.
.SAT...CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN THE MORNING.
W WINDS G20-25KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON.
GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN AND GREAT SOUTH
BAY...AS STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO 35-40 KT...POSSIBLY
AS HIGH AS 45 KT ON THE OPEN ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS. ON ALL OTHER
WATERS...A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THINK MOST OF THE
GUSTS WILL TOP OFF AROUND 30 KT.
WITH THE STORM DEPARTING THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH
FAIRLY QUICKLY...AND SUB-SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY ON MOST WATERS
BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. OCEAN SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH...AND SCA
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THOSE WATERS WHEN THE GALES END.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE NON-
OCEAN WATERS. WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY IN
RESPONSE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND POSSIBLE ON THE NON-OCEAN
WATERS.
WINDS ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BE 15 KT OR LESS THURSDAY
NIGHT-SATURDAY. ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY IN THIS TIME FRAME DUE TO BOTH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25
KT AND SEAS 5 FT OR GREATER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A TOTAL OF AROUND 1 INCH OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. HEAVY
RAIN MAY LEAD TO URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES. SOME SMALLER AND
FASTER REACTING STREAMS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY MAY
APPROACH BANKFULL THIS AFTERNOON.
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS UP FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU AND SUFFOLK COUNTIES FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
TIDES ARE ASTRONOMICALLY LOW...BEING BETWEEN A NEW AND FULL MOON.
THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL COINCIDE WITH
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG SE WINDS AND THE HIGHEST SURGE. SURGE
VALUES OF 2 1/2 TO 3 FT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF LONG ISLAND AS WELL
AS LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS. WATER LEVELS
LOOK TO FALL JUST SHY OF MINOR FLOOD BENCHMARKS AT THE NYC SOUTH
SHORE BAYS.
WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE CT COAST
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...AS THE
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
KOKX RADAR IS OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART IS ON
ORDER...BUT A RETURN TO SERVICE TIME IS UNKNOWN.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ080-
179.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ079-
081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
338-340.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ345-350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MPS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...MALOIT/MPS/DS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1257 PM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS TODAY BEFORE MOVING
INTO EASTERN CANADA BY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON WEDNESDAY...THEN CROSSES THE TRI-STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLIDES OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN LIFTS TO THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGION WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BAND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED
WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM CENTRAL PA INTO UPSTATE
NEW YORK. WITHIN THE BAND OF RAIN IS A FINE LINE OF HEAVY
RAINFALL STRETCHING FROM SE PA THROUGH SOUTHERN NJ. ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FINE LINE IS VERY STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE. LOW LEVEL JET AT 925 MB PROGGED BY THE NAM TO BE BETWEEN
80 AND 85 KT ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE SEEN A FEW OBSERVATIONS OF GUSTS CLOSE TO 50
MPH ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS FINE LINE. LATEST RADAR TRENDS
TAKE IT INTO THE NYC/NJ METRO AROUND 19Z. ANY STRONG WIND GUST
POTENTIAL WILL BE HANDLED WITH SHORT FUSED PRODUCTS. ONCE THE LINE
MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION WITH SPEENDS DECREASING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES EAST.
HAVE UPDATED POPS AND WX GRIDS...WITH INCREASED EMPHASIS ON GUSTY
WIND POTENTIAL AND THE ADDITION OF ISOLATED THUNDER. LIMITED
CAPE...BUT WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG FORCING...IT WOULD
NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. POPS
TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY DOWNWARD ONCE THE RAIN MOVES EAST. BLENDED
LATEST HRRR AND RAP POPS. IN GENERAL...AROUND 1" OF LIQUID
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. NOT
EXPECTING FLASH FLOODING...BUT MINOR URBAN FLOODING DUE TO EXCESS
RUNOFF AND MINOR RISES IN AREA RIVERS ARE POSSIBLE.
COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. WINDS SHIFT
TO THE NW AND DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY...BECOMING LESS THAN 10 MPH
THIS EVENING.
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY...LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO
THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO THE MID 30S NEAR THE COAST.
WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON ROADWAYS...SOME ICY SPOTS MAY DEVELOP
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MEAN TROUGHING BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN U.S. WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. LOW LEVELS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY...SO OUTSIDE OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER FAR W
ORANGE COUNTY FOR SNOW SHOWERS (COULD SEE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES THERE) ON WEDNESDAY...HAVE
GONE DRY IN THIS TIME FRAME.
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE DRY
THEN AS WELL.
FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE...A MIX DOWN
FROM 925 HPA...AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED. A BLEND OF
MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED FOR
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. READINGS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL IN BOTH PERIODS.
FOR HIGHS THURSDAY...A BLEND OF MET/MET GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900 HPA WAS USED. A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT. VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH PERIODS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE KEEPING THINGS DRY.
MULTIPLE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN
PASS TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. HAVE CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE FRIDAY
NIGHT...FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...AND A WINTRY MIX
TO SNOW FOR NORTHERN ZONES. ON SATURDAY...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WEST 1/3 AS SHORTWAVES APPEAR TO EXIT FAIRLY QUICKLY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO
ALL RAIN THROUGHOUT BY AFTERNOON.
SHORTWAVE 700-500 HPA RIDGING CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING ON SUNDAY. THERE IS
SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THESE FEATURES...BUT WITH DRY LOW
LEVELS...FOR NOW EXPECT THE SHORTWAVE TO PASS THROUGH DRY...SO HAVE
GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR BOTH PERIODS.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS/CMC/GEFS MEAN...SO LEANED
TOWARDS THE LARGER CONSENSUS IN THIS TIME FRAME...WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS TO BE MAINLY A RAIN EVENT...WITH MAYBE SOME MIXING IN OF
SNOW OVER FAR NW ZONES. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM...THIS IS COULD CHANGE.
FOR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY-MONDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED...WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...GIVING WAY TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT HAS PASSED TO THE NORTH. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING FROM CENTRAL PA INTO UPSTATE NY AND QUEBEC WILL DRAG A
TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS EARLY THIS EVENING.
WIDELY VARYING CONDITIONS LATE THIS MORNING...WITH PREVAILING IFR
AT KHPN/KSWF AND MOST INLAND SECTIONS...MVFR WITH PASSING SHOWERS
AT MOST OF THE NYC METRO TERMINALS...AND VFR TO THE EAST. A PRE-
FRONTAL RAIN BAND WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH PREVAILING
IFR CONDS AND TEMPO LIFR IN HEAVY RAIN. EXPECT GUSTY SSE WINDS
AHEAD OF AND WITH THE RAIN BAND...AS WELL AS LLWS. WINDS AT FL020
WILL BE AS HIGH AS BE 80-85 KT...BUT THINK ACTUAL LLWS WILL OCCUR
MUCH CLOSER TO GROUND LEVEL WITH SPEEDS 55-65 KT...HIGHEST AT
KJFK/KISP AND LOWER INLAND. THERE IS A CHANCE SOME OF THESE VERY
STRONG WINDS COULD BE TRANSPORTED DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN
HEAVIER RAIN.
MVFR CONDS COULD LINGER FOR A COUPLE OF HRS THIS EVENING BETWEEN
PASSAGE OF THE RAIN BAND AND THE COLD FRONT...THEN VFR WITH WINDS
SHIFTING WSW TO W AFTER FROPA THIS EVENING.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: PEAK FL020 WINDS 17080KT AND BRIEF SFC WND
G45KT POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER RAIN 18Z-20Z.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: PEAK FL020 WINDS 17075KT AND BRIEF SFC WND
G40KT POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER RAIN 18Z-20Z.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: PEAK FL020 WINDS 17075KT AND BRIEF SFC WND
G40KT POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER RAIN 18Z-20Z.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: PEAK FL020 WINDS 17075KT AND BRIEF SFC WND
G40KT POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER RAIN 18Z-20Z.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: PEAK FL020 WINDS 17075KT AND BRIEF SFC WND
G40KT POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER RAIN 18Z-20Z.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: PEAK FL020 WINDS 17085KT AND BRIEF SFC WND
G50KT POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER RAIN 19Z-21Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.WED-FRI...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT...CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.
SW WINDS G20KT LATE.
.SAT...CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN THE MORNING.
W WINDS G20-25KT.
&&
.MARINE...
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON.
GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN AND GREAT SOUTH
BAY...AS STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO 35-40 KT...POSSIBLY
AS HIGH AS 45 KT ON THE OPEN ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS. ON ALL OTHER
WATERS...A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THINK MOST OF THE
GUSTS WILL TOP OFF AROUND 30 KT.
WITH THE STORM DEPARTING THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH
FAIRLY QUICKLY...AND SUB-SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY ON MOST WATERS
BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. OCEAN SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH...AND SCA
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THOSE WATERS WHEN THE GALES END.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE NON-
OCEAN WATERS. WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY IN
RESPONSE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND POSSIBLE ON THE NON-OCEAN
WATERS.
WINDS ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BE 15 KT OR LESS THURSDAY
NIGHT-SATURDAY. ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY IN THIS TIME FRAME DUE TO BOTH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25
KT AND SEAS 5 FT OR GREATER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A TOTAL OF AROUND 1 INCH OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. HEAVY
RAIN MAY LEAD TO URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES. SOME SMALLER AND
FASTER REACTING STREAMS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY MAY
APPROACH BANKFULL THIS AFTERNOON.
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS UP FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU AND SUFFOLK COUNTIES FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
TIDES ARE ASTRONOMICALLY LOW...BEING BETWEEN A NEW AND FULL MOON.
THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL COINCIDE WITH
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG SE WINDS AND THE HIGHEST SURGE. SURGE
VALUES OF 2 1/2 TO 3 FT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF LONG ISLAND AS WELL
AS LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS. WATER LEVELS
LOOK TO FALL JUST SHY OF MINOR FLOOD BENCHMARKS AT THE NYC SOUTH
SHORE BAYS.
WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE CT COAST
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...AS THE
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
KOKX RADAR IS OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART IS ON
ORDER...BUT A RETURN TO SERVICE TIME IS UNKNOWN.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ080-
179.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ079-
081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
338-340.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ345-350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MPS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...MALOIT/MPS/DS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1131 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1008 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
Upper wave continues to dig southeastward and had reached northern
Arkansas this morning, with the majority of the associated
precipitation skirting just to our south. Radar and surface
reports indicating some light freezing rain/snow mixture from
about Quincy to Taylorville southward, but this continues to push
south with time and should largely be out of west central Illinois
by midday. Further north, snow showers were advancing along the
I-39 corridor and were starting to edge in the far northern CWA,
with a separate piece of energy currently moving through northern
Illinois. Have introduced some PoP`s across the northern CWA
through the afternoon with this feature, and extended them into
areas near Champaign and Danville for early evening before the
wave exits the area. Not a lot in the way of ice crystals
available in the -10 to -20C elevation per forecast soundings, so
snow is less of a concern and the precip type is more of a light
rain/drizzle with some freezing potential late this morning.
However, temperatures have reached the lower 30s from about Macomb
to Paris southward, so the icing potential will be on the wane
over the next hour or so.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
Next system slated to impact central Illinois is evident on 08z/2am
water vapor imagery over eastern Nebraska. Much like the wave that
passed by the area yesterday, this particular feature is digging
further southward than models had predicted. With the 500mb vort
max now progged to track from its current position over eastern
Nebraska to northeast Arkansas by 18z, the associated band of light
precip has been displaced southward. In fact, the HRRR and Rapid
Refresh suggest it will only graze the far S/SE KILX CWA today. As
a result, have trimmed PoPs considerably...with locations
along/north of a Bloomington to Paris line remaining dry. Highest
precip chances will be focused south of I-70 where likely PoPs are
warranted. Forecast soundings indicate only shallow boundary layer
moisture with a complete lack of ice crystals: therefore, think any
precip that occurs will be in liquid form. With surface temps
initially in the 20s and lower 30s, some light freezing rain may
occur as the precip arrives this morning...primarily along and
southwest of a Galesburg to Taylorville line. Icing will be
minimal, as temps are expected to climb above freezing by mid to
late morning. Fog will also be an issue this morning, although with
increasing mid clouds associated with the approaching wave, do not
think widespread dense fog will develop. Will therefore not be
issuing a Dense Fog Advisory at this time. Instead, a Special
Weather Statement addressing the low visibilities has been issued.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
A weak secondary wave will track across the southern Great Lakes
tonight, potentially bringing some very light snow or flurries to
the northern KILX CWA. Once this feature passes, cool and dry
weather will be on tap for Wednesday with high temperatures in the
middle to upper 30s.
After that, the long-advertised warming trend will finally arrive by
the end of the week. A deep upper trough coming onshore across the
Pacific Northwest will induce pronounced ridging downstream over the
central and eastern CONUS, resulting in much warmer weather. As the
pressure gradient tightens between a departing high and an
approaching frontal boundary, strong southerly winds will develop on
Thursday and Friday. Winds will gust to around 30mph Thursday
afternoon, then to between 35 and 40mph on Friday as the front
arrives. Thanks to rising upper heights, strong southerly winds,
and the return of some sunshine, high temperatures will soar into
the 60s by Friday.
Once the weak cold front passes, a mild Pacific-origin airmass will
prevail through the weekend with highs in the 50s for both Saturday
and Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
A hole in the IFR conditions has formed late this morning from
near KPIA-KCMI, allowing ceilings to rise well above 3,000 feet
and visibilities to improve. Some improvement has also recently
been noted further south as well. Have kept this in the TAF`s for
a couple hours, with deteriorating conditions again mid/late
afternoon as widespread MVFR/IFR conditions across Iowa and
northwest Illinois track southeast. Not expecting any sort of
improvement through the night as an area of high pressure just to
the west keeps an inversion in place, but have indicated some
modest improvement toward sunrise.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1008 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1008 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
Upper wave continues to dig southeastward and had reached northern
Arkansas this morning, with the majority of the associated
precipitation skirting just to our south. Radar and surface
reports indicating some light freezing rain/snow mixture from
about Quincy to Taylorville southward, but this continues to push
south with time and should largely be out of west central Illinois
by midday. Further north, snow showers were advancing along the
I-39 corridor and were starting to edge in the far northern CWA,
with a separate piece of energy currently moving through northern
Illinois. Have introduced some PoP`s across the northern CWA
through the afternoon with this feature, and extended them into
areas near Champaign and Danville for early evening before the
wave exits the area. Not a lot in the way of ice crystals
available in the -10 to -20C elevation per forecast soundings, so
snow is less of a concern and the precip type is more of a light
rain/drizzle with some freezing potential late this morning.
However, temperatures have reached the lower 30s from about Macomb
to Paris southward, so the icing potential will be on the wane
over the next hour or so.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
Next system slated to impact central Illinois is evident on 08z/2am
water vapor imagery over eastern Nebraska. Much like the wave that
passed by the area yesterday, this particular feature is digging
further southward than models had predicted. With the 500mb vort
max now progged to track from its current position over eastern
Nebraska to northeast Arkansas by 18z, the associated band of light
precip has been displaced southward. In fact, the HRRR and Rapid
Refresh suggest it will only graze the far S/SE KILX CWA today. As
a result, have trimmed PoPs considerably...with locations
along/north of a Bloomington to Paris line remaining dry. Highest
precip chances will be focused south of I-70 where likely PoPs are
warranted. Forecast soundings indicate only shallow boundary layer
moisture with a complete lack of ice crystals: therefore, think any
precip that occurs will be in liquid form. With surface temps
initially in the 20s and lower 30s, some light freezing rain may
occur as the precip arrives this morning...primarily along and
southwest of a Galesburg to Taylorville line. Icing will be
minimal, as temps are expected to climb above freezing by mid to
late morning. Fog will also be an issue this morning, although with
increasing mid clouds associated with the approaching wave, do not
think widespread dense fog will develop. Will therefore not be
issuing a Dense Fog Advisory at this time. Instead, a Special
Weather Statement addressing the low visibilities has been issued.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
A weak secondary wave will track across the southern Great Lakes
tonight, potentially bringing some very light snow or flurries to
the northern KILX CWA. Once this feature passes, cool and dry
weather will be on tap for Wednesday with high temperatures in the
middle to upper 30s.
After that, the long-advertised warming trend will finally arrive by
the end of the week. A deep upper trough coming onshore across the
Pacific Northwest will induce pronounced ridging downstream over the
central and eastern CONUS, resulting in much warmer weather. As the
pressure gradient tightens between a departing high and an
approaching frontal boundary, strong southerly winds will develop on
Thursday and Friday. Winds will gust to around 30mph Thursday
afternoon, then to between 35 and 40mph on Friday as the front
arrives. Thanks to rising upper heights, strong southerly winds,
and the return of some sunshine, high temperatures will soar into
the 60s by Friday.
Once the weak cold front passes, a mild Pacific-origin airmass will
prevail through the weekend with highs in the 50s for both Saturday
and Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
Areas of dense fog and low cigs will prevail over the forecast
area through the morning hours with only a gradual improvement
expected this afternoon. There still is the chance for a brief
period of very light snow or freezing rain at SPI in the 14z-17z
time frame with any precip after that falling in the form of
light rain as surface temperatures rise above freezing. LIFR to
VLIFR cigs will dominate into the early afternoon hours with
forecast soundings suggesting some improvement to low MVFR cigs
in the 20z-23z time frame. May see a few flurries this evening
across our northern TAF sites from PIA to CMI but coverage
appears to be too low to include in the TAFs this issuance.
Surface winds will not be much of a factor this forecast period
with a light southeast to east wind today with speeds of 10 kts
or less, with winds northwest tonight at 5 to 10 kts.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1132 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 558 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS NOW KEEP MY EXTREME SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
SLIGHTLY SUB FREEZING THROUGH MID MORNING AS THE FREEZING
RAIN...SNOW...RAIN MIX MOVES IN. SOME ICING IS LIKELY ON UNTREATED
ROADS EARLY TODAY...AND HAVE COORDINATED A SHORT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN MOST 3 COUNTIES TO COVER THIS EVENT.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
THE STORM OF RADICALLY DIFFERENT PATH FORECASTS IN THE
PAST FEW DAYS IN MODELS...IS FINALLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
MIDWEST THIS MORNING. AS OF 3 AM...THE LOW IS FOUND IN TWO
CENTERS...ONE IN SOUTHWEST IOWA...AND ANOTHER NEAR KANSAS CITY. THAT
STRUCTURE IS LIKELY THE SOURCE OF THE CONTINUATION OF VARIABLE MODEL
TRACKS AND EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM. OUR CWA HAS BEEN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE IN ILLINOIS OF A VERY NARROW RIDGE...ALLOWING FOR SOME
CLEAR SKIES...AND RESULTANT SHARP TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE 9 TO 15
RANGE OVER SNOW...AND PATCHY DENSE FOG TO GO ALONG WITH IT.
IOWA...UNDER CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS...IS HOLDING IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR THE MOST PART.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
TODAY IS GOING TO BE A CLOSE
CALL...WITH THE VORT AND NARROW BUT RATHER INTENSE WAA PCPN BRUSHING
MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA LINES...OR FROM CENTRAL IOWA TO CENTRAL
MISSOURI. THIS LEAVES MAINLY OUR SOUTHWEST AT RISK FOR MEASURABLE
SNOW...AND POSSIBLY RAIN SNOW MIX. OTHER LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY
NORTH WILL SEE SOME EVENTUAL SATURATION FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW. FOR
EVERYONE...IT WILL BE CLOUDY...AND SEASONAL DAY IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S...WE WILL MELT MORE SNOW
THAN ANYTHING THAT FALLS. TODAY WILL BE NET LOSS OF SNOW COVER.
FOG...CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THIS LIGHT CONVERGENT FLOW
TODAY...BUT FOR NOW...I WILL KEEP MENTION OF IT TO THE EARLY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST WHERE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
BEING REPORTED. IF...SNOW DOES ACCUMULATE IN THE SOUTHWEST...UP TO
AN INCH APPEARS TO BE THE BEST FIT FOR ACCUMULATIONS. IT IS JUST
TOO MILD TO PRODUCE FLUFFY RATIOS TODAY...AND WITH THE MAIN
FORCING SHIFTING SOUTH SO EARLY TODAY...THE MAIN EVENT SHOULD BE
OVER BY MID MORNING. I WILL KEEP SOME MENTION OF POPS GOING TO
EARLY EVENING THOUGH...AS THERE IS WEAK FORCING ALOFT COMBINING
WITH CONVERGENT LOW LEVELS. THAT MIGHT BE A QUESTION OF HIGH
POP/LOW QPF FOR THE NEXT SHIFT.
OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD KEEP THE CLOUD AROUND TONIGHT...WITH WEAK COLD
ADVECTION. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S APPEAR ON TRACK FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH.
ERVIN
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
FORECAST FOCUS ON BIG WARM-UP LATE IN THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COOL
DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
BIG WARM-UP AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES WITH THE AO/NAO GOING POSITIVE
AND THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL HAVE MELTED
BY THE TIME WE GET TO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WE
WILL SEE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO RECORDS WHICH ARE WELL INTO THE
60S TO 70. THE WARMTH WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING OVER 40 MPH IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS AS A STRONG
CYCLONE TRACKS ACROSS MN AND WI WITH MODELS DEPICTING 50+ KNOT WINDS
AT 850 MB. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS WELL NORTH OF
THE DVN CWA WHERE THE BETTER FORCING WILL BE LOCATED.
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO
THE 40S TO AROUND 50. NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES....DROPPING HIGHS DOWN INTO THE 30S.
HAASE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEAK NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARAIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL
BE MAINLY AOB 1K AGL WITH PERIODS OF 1-3K AGL POSSIBLE AND CEILINGS
AOB 500 FEET POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE MAINLY 2 TO
5 MILES THIS AFTERNOON AND MOST OF THIS EVENING. AFTER 17/06Z...VISIBILITIES
MAY FALL TO AOB 1 MILES AND POSSIBLY TO 1/2 MILE IN FOG UNTIL LATE MORNING.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ERVIN
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...NICHOLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
120 PM MST TUE FEB 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MST TUE FEB 16 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
THROUGH OUR CWA WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOW BUILDING FROM THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE INTO NE COLORADO AND NW KANSAS.
THE MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST UPDATE WAS ON POTENTIAL FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAINLY THURSDAY...SEE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.
EARLY THIS MORNING...RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT RETURNS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...WITH VIRGA OR A FEW
SPRINKLES. DRIER AND MUCH MORE STABLE AIR BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAS HELPED WEAKEN THIS ACTIVITY AND SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH 12Z.
TODAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...STRONG H5 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US COAST
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS THROUGH MID
WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT A VERY DEEP/DRY AIR MASS AND UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THESE PERIODS. TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE
COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO POST FRONTAL AIR MASS THROUGH
MIDDAY...HOWEVER AS LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WE COULD
ACTUALLY END UP PRETTY SIMILAR IF OPAQUE CIRRUS DOESNT COMPLICATE
THINGS. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY AND WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S...POSSIBLE AROUND 70 IN OUR SOUTH. DEEP SW FLOW DEVELOPS ON BACK
EDGE OF RIDGE THURSDAY A BUILDING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN DEEP SW FLOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY
STRONG WAA WITH THIS PATTERN AS STRONGER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS BEING MET AT A FEW
LOCATIONS. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. DEEP DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CHANCES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 PM MST TUE FEB 16 2016
H5 RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN POSITION OVER THE CWA ON THURSDAY ENHANCED
BY A QUASI STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE AREA SITUATED IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA AS WELL AS A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE
REGION. PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
WILL TRIGGER SHORTWAVE DEVELOPMENT ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES
EARLY ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES EAST. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AIR TO ACCOMPANY THE
SHORTWAVE THUS INHIBITING ANY PRECIPITATION FROM FORMING AS IT
TRAVERSES THE REGION. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE UPON
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FRIDAYS SHORTWAVE THUS THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BOTH DAYS.
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER FAST MOVING
WEAK SHORTWAVE. FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION VERY LATE ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS A RIDGE TAKES SHAPE
IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST US. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD EARLY
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1032 AM MST TUE FEB 16 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH MCK AND
GLD. A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 7KFT AGL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION BETWEEN 21Z-06Z...OTHERWISE ONLY HIGH
CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KSZ027>029-041-042.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1108 AM MST TUE FEB 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MST TUE FEB 16 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
THROUGH OUR CWA WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOW BUILDING FROM THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE INTO NE COLORADO AND NW KANSAS.
THE MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST UPDATE WAS ON POTENTIAL FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAINLY THURSDAY...SEE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.
EARLY THIS MORNING...RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT RETURNS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...WITH VIRGA OR A FEW
SPRINKLES. DRIER AND MUCH MORE STABLE AIR BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAS HELPED WEAKEN THIS ACTIVITY AND SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH 12Z.
TODAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...STRONG H5 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US COAST
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS THROUGH MID
WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT A VERY DEEP/DRY AIR MASS AND UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THESE PERIODS. TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE
COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO POST FRONTAL AIR MASS THROUGH
MIDDAY...HOWEVER AS LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WE COULD
ACTUALLY END UP PRETTY SIMILAR IF OPAQUE CIRRUS DOESNT COMPLICATE
THINGS. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY AND WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S...POSSIBLE AROUND 70 IN OUR SOUTH. DEEP SW FLOW DEVELOPS ON BACK
EDGE OF RIDGE THURSDAY A BUILDING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN DEEP SW FLOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY
STRONG WAA WITH THIS PATTERN AS STRONGER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS BEING MET AT A FEW
LOCATIONS. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. DEEP DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CHANCES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST TUE FEB 16 2016
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
CONTINUE AS BROAD H5 RIDGE SEEN EARLIER IN THE WEEK BEGINS TO BREAKS
DOWN/FLATTEN ALLOWING FOR ZONAL FLOW OVER THE PLAINS/ROCKIES REGION.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SYSTEM COMING OFF THE ROCKIES MONDAY
NIGHT ON INTO TUESDAY. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN AVAILABLE QPF WITH
ITS PASSAGE...BUT HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GFS GIVING AREA A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPS DURING PASSAGE. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
TO HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT AS IT TRAVERSES
AREA. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE BRING 25-35 MPH POTENTIAL.
FOR TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE 60S FRIDAY/SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGHS...THEN 50S FOR SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY AS SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS
DRAGGED INTO AREA WITH EACH SYSTEM PASSAGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
FROM THE 30S INTO THE 20S FOR THE SAME ABOVE MENTIONED
REASON...ARRIVAL OF COOLER/COLDER AIR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1032 AM MST TUE FEB 16 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH MCK AND
GLD. A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 7KFT AGL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION BETWEEN 21Z-06Z...OTHERWISE ONLY HIGH
CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM MST TUE FEB 16 2016
ON THURSDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXTENDING
NORTH AND EAST FROM THERE...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AREAS WITHIN THE CURRENT FIRE WEATHER WATCH AREA HAVE DRY FINE
FUELS THAT ARE AVAILABLE TO BURN SINCE THAT AREA DID NOT RECEIVE
THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW AREAS FURTHER NORTH RECEIVED DURING RECENT
WINTER PRECIPITATION EVENTS. HOWEVER...THE FUEL MOISTURE REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE ACROSS AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA. DUE TO
RECENT MELTING OF THE SNOW COVER AND FROZEN SUBSOIL
CONDITIONS...THE TOPMOST LAYER OF SOIL AND COVER OF FINE FUELS
ABOVE THAT IS STILL WET. IT REMAINS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER OR NOT
THESE FINE FUELS WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO DRY AND BECOME
AVAILABLE TO BURN BEFORE THURSDAY. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT WATCH
AREA INTACT FOR NOW WITH A POSSIBLE EXTENSION OF THE WATCH AREA OR
EVENTUAL RED FLAG WARNING ON THURSDAY IF CONDITIONS CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 314 AM MST TUE FEB 16 2016
DAILY RECORDS AND CURRENT FORECAST FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY.
SITE.............RECORD...CURRENT FORECAST
GOODLAND, KS.......74...........78
MCCOOK, NE.........82...........76
BURLINGTON,CO......74...........76
HILL CITY,KS.......75...........80
COLBY, KS..........81...........78
TRIBUNE, KS........79...........79
YUMA, CO...........73...........74
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KSZ027>029-041-042.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...LOCKHART
FIRE WEATHER...LOCKHART
CLIMATE...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1045 AM MST TUE FEB 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MST TUE FEB 16 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
THROUGH OUR CWA WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOW BUILDING FROM THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE INTO NE COLORADO AND NW KANSAS.
THE MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST UPDATE WAS ON POTENTIAL FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAINLY THURSDAY...SEE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.
EARLY THIS MORNING...RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT RETURNS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...WITH VIRGA OR A FEW
SPRINKLES. DRIER AND MUCH MORE STABLE AIR BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAS HELPED WEAKEN THIS ACTIVITY AND SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH 12Z.
TODAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...STRONG H5 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US COAST
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS THROUGH MID
WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT A VERY DEEP/DRY AIR MASS AND UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THESE PERIODS. TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE
COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO POST FRONTAL AIR MASS THROUGH
MIDDAY...HOWEVER AS LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WE COULD
ACTUALLY END UP PRETTY SIMILAR IF OPAQUE CIRRUS DOESNT COMPLICATE
THINGS. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY AND WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S...POSSIBLE AROUND 70 IN OUR SOUTH. DEEP SW FLOW DEVELOPS ON BACK
EDGE OF RIDGE THURSDAY A BUILDING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN DEEP SW FLOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY
STRONG WAA WITH THIS PATTERN AS STRONGER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS BEING MET AT A FEW
LOCATIONS. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. DEEP DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CHANCES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST TUE FEB 16 2016
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
CONTINUE AS BROAD H5 RIDGE SEEN EARLIER IN THE WEEK BEGINS TO BREAKS
DOWN/FLATTEN ALLOWING FOR ZONAL FLOW OVER THE PLAINS/ROCKIES REGION.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SYSTEM COMING OFF THE ROCKIES MONDAY
NIGHT ON INTO TUESDAY. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN AVAILABLE QPF WITH
ITS PASSAGE...BUT HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GFS GIVING AREA A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPS DURING PASSAGE. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
TO HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT AS IT TRAVERSES
AREA. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE BRING 25-35 MPH POTENTIAL.
FOR TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE 60S FRIDAY/SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGHS...THEN 50S FOR SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY AS SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS
DRAGGED INTO AREA WITH EACH SYSTEM PASSAGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
FROM THE 30S INTO THE 20S FOR THE SAME ABOVE MENTIONED
REASON...ARRIVAL OF COOLER/COLDER AIR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1032 AM MST TUE FEB 16 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH MCK AND
GLD. A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 7KFT AGL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION BETWEEN 21Z-06Z...OTHERWISE ONLY HIGH
CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 314 AM MST TUE FEB 16 2016
CONSIDERING THE VERY DRY AIR MASS ADVERTISED BY GUIDANCE WE COULD
SEE NEAR CRITICAL CRITERIA RH MET IN OUR FAR SW WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THIS SHOULDNT NECESSITATE A WATCH ISSUANCE
CONSIDERING THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE RH/WINDS. STRONG
UNIDIRECTIONAL GRADIENT (STRONG WINDS)...GOOD MIXING...RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES...AND VERY DRY AIR SHOULD MAKE CRITICAL CRITERIA
CROSSOVER OF RH/WINDS A SLAM DUNK THURSDAY FOR SW PORTIONS OF OUR
CWA (ROUGHLY SW OF YUMA TO GOVE LINE).
AT THIS JUNCTURE THE BIGGEST QUESTION ON WHERE TO DRAW UP A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY IS FUELS. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FURTHER
MELTING/CURING SHOULD TAKE PLACE. LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST
MAY STILL BE WET ENOUGH FROM RECENT SNOW MELT THAT WITHOUT
COLLABORATING WITH PARTNERS IM NOT COMFORTABLE ISSUING ANY HAZARD
PRODUCTS FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. IM MORE CONFIDENT THAT LOCATIONS
ALONG/SOUTH OF HWY 40 WILL HAVE AMPLE OPPORTUNITY TO CURE AND THE
MAJORITY OF FUELS WILL BE READY TO GO. I DECIDED TO LIMIT A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH TO THESE SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THIS UPDATE...AND
WILL ALLOW COORDINATION WITH PARTNERS DURING DAY SHIFT TO FINE
TUNE FUELS EXPECTATIONS NORTH OF THIS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 314 AM MST TUE FEB 16 2016
DAILY RECORDS AND CURRENT FORECAST FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY.
SITE.............RECORD...CURRENT FORECAST
GOODLAND, KS.......74...........78
MCCOOK, NE.........82...........76
BURLINGTON,CO......74...........76
HILL CITY,KS.......75...........80
COLBY, KS..........81...........78
TRIBUNE, KS........79...........79
YUMA, CO...........73...........74
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KSZ027>029-041-042.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...LOCKHART
FIRE WEATHER...DR
CLIMATE...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1222 PM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1124 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
13Z SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR/FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN/CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WITH A 1005MB
FRONTAL WAVE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PAIR
OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING IN THE VICINITY OF UPPER MICHIGAN...
ONE TRACKING INTO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AROUND
THE NORTHERN/DEFORMATION SIDE OF THIS VORTICITY CENTER INTO EASTERN/
SOUTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN...ANOTHER DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHWEST
ONTARIO WITH A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OUT AHEAD OF THAT. LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR EXPECTED
TO INCREASE LAKE CONVECTION AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES INTO FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY MINOR FORECAST
ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SOME UPR TROFFING
CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY DOMINATING CENTRAL AND ERN NAMERICA. THERE
IS AN APRCHG SHRTWV OVER NRN MN THAT IS EMBEDDED IN THE WNW FLOW
ALF. AXIS OF MODEST DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
CAUSING 12HR H5 HGT FALLS UNDER 30M AS WELL AS SOME MODEST MSTR
SHOWN ON THE WV IMAGERY/HINTED AT BY THE 00Z MPX RAOB IS RESULTING
IN SOME SCT SN SHOWERS OVER THE W AND CENTRAL CWA EARLY THIS MRNG
WELL TO THE E OF ACCOMPANYING SFC LO PRES TROF MOVING THRU NE MN.
SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVRN NEAR H85 DEPICTED ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB IS
KEEPING THE FAR ERN CWA DRY...BUT THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF LO CLD
TRAPPED BENEATH THIS INVRN. H85 TEMPS RIGHT ALONG THIS LO PRES TROF
ARE NOT THAT COLD...AS 00Z H85 TEMP AT INL WAS ONLY -7C. FARTHER TO
THE NNW...THE 00Z H85 TEMPS WERE -13C AT YPL AND -16C AT THE PAS
MANITOBA.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS TODAY ASSOCIATED
WITH APRCHG SHRTWV/LO PRES TROF AND THEN ON LES COVERAGE/INTENSITY
TNGT AS COLDER AIR FOLLOWS IN THE NNW FLOW BEHIND THE TROF PASSAGE.
TODAY...AS SHRTWV/AXIS OF ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR FORCING AND DEEPER
MSTR MOVE E TODAY...EXPECT THE SCT SN SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE CWA THIS MORNING. BUT ALL THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HINTS THE
MARGINAL FORCING/MSTR WL RESTRICT PCPN TOTALS WITH NO MORE THAN
ABOUT AN INCH OF SN AT ANY ONE SPOT. BUT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN TO
THE NW CWA LATER IN THE DAY...LOWERING H85 TEMPS DOWN TO ABOUT -15C/-
16C OVER THE KEWEENAW BY 00Z WED...SOME MORE NMRS/HEAVER LK EFFECT
SN SHOWERS MAY DVLP IN THAT AREA. SINCE SGNFTLY COLDER AIR WL NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL LATER...GOING FCST HI TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S SEEMS ON
TRACK.
TNGT...LLVL NNW FLOW AHEAD OF APRCHG CNDN HI PRES THAT IS FCST TO
REACH NEAR THUNDER BAY ONTARIO BY DAYBREAK WED WL DRIVE H85 TEMPS AS
LO AS -18C TO -20C OVER THE E HALF LK SUP AT 12Z. THIS INFLUX OF
COLD AIR WL SUPPORT LES IN THE FAVORED SN BELTS IN GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON
COUNTIES AND FM MARQUETTE TO THE E. WHILE FCST SHARPER LLVL SFC
CNVGC IN THESE AREAS AS WELL AS FAVORABLE LOCATION OF THE DGZ/LLVL
UVV MAX WITHIN THE MOIST LYR ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME HEAVIER LES...
ARRIVAL OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/MID LVL DRYING THAT ARE FCST TO
LOWER THE INVRN BASE TO 3-4K FT AGL/MORE ACYC H925 FLOW BY 12Z WED
WL ACT TO LIMIT LES INTENSITY. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY BLSN NEAR
LK SUP MAINLY IN THE EVNG WHEN H925 WINDS ARE FCST UP TO 25 KTS
DURING PERIOD OF SHAPER LLVL CAA THAT WL ENHANCE MIXING OF THIS
MOMENTUM TO THE SFC. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF
FLUFFY SN IN THE FAVORED SN BELTS...OVERALL LARGER SCALE NEGATIVES
AND MARGINAL WINDS/BLSN POTENTIAL INDICATE THIS LES EVENT WL NOT
REQUIRE A HEADLINE. MIN TEMPS TNGT WL FALL TO 5-10F OVER THE
INTERIOR W HALF BUT SHOULD HOLD NO LOWER THAN THE MID TEENS IN THE
FAVORED SN BELTS E OF MARQUETTE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
...WINTRY MIX THU NIGHT INTO FRI...
STRONG JET DIGGING INTO CNTRL CONUS RESULTS IN UPPER TROUGHING AND
COLD AIR ACROSS GREAT LAKES ON WED. THEN...ENERGETIC PACIFIC JET OF
175-200KT AT H25...FORCES TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN PACIFIC OVER
WESTERN CONUS THU WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING SPREADING OVER GOOD
PORTION OF CONUS...INCLUDING GREAT LAKES. WESTERN TROUGH HEADS
TOWARD GREAT LAKES ON FRI ALONG WITH DEEPENING SFC LOW AND WARM
FRONT. MODELS ARE GOING BACK AND FORTH ON HOW FAR NORTH PRIMARY SFC
LOW TRACKS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT WHICH AFFECTS HOW QUICKLY
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MIXED PRECIP ISSUES ARRIVE OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. IN WAKE OF THE SFC LOW...COOLER AIR MOVES BACK OVER
UPPER GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEKEND...BUT EXTENT OF COOLING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. SWIFT WNW FLOW ALOFT COULD BRING ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
AND SNOW CHANCES...MAINLY LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
STARTING OFF ON WED...TROUGHING AND COLD AIR WILL BE TEMPORARILY IN
PLACE. LOOKING AT H85 TEMPS -18C TO -20C...LOWEST OVER EASTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN ONTARIO...BUT MODERATION OCCURS FAIRLY QUICKLY
BY WED EVENING WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. TROUGH AXIS STAYING
NORTHEAST OF UPPER GREAT LAKES LEADS TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
TAKING CHARGE BY WED MORNING WITH STRONG H7-H5 Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE
AND DRYING ABOVE H85. SFC HIGH OVER 1025MB SLIDING IN FM MANITOBA
AND NORTHERN ONTARIO BRINGS ANTICYCLONIC SFC FLOW ACROSS LK SUPERIOR
THOUGH NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW MAY HANG AROUND FOR MORNING
HOURS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR AND DOWNSTREAM NCNTRL AND EASTERN CWA.
AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...THE INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL TO LESS THAN 4KFT
OVER LK SUPERIOR. LAKE EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS SIMILAR OVER WEST BUT ARE
MORE AROUND 6KFT OVER SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR DUE TO INCREASED FETCH WITH
NNW TO N BLYR FLOW. DEEPER LAKE CONVECTIVE LAYER...BLYR WINDS 15-20
KTS HELPING ORGANIZATION...AND FAVORABLE DGZ MAY OFFSET THE NEGATIVE
LARGE SCALE FACTORS TO HELP FLUFF UP A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ON WED
MORNING. EXPECTED BLYR FLOW FAVORS SNOW BELTS OVER EASTERN MARQUETTE
COUNTY INTO ALGER COUNTY AND MAYBE EVEN INTO DELTA AND SCHOOLCRAFT
COUNTIES FOR PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS AND ACCUMS. SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING WITH THE HIGH EVENTUALLY WILL PUT CRIMP ON LES LATE WED
MORNING INTO WED AFTN...THOUGH ONSHORE FLOW AND ENOUGH MOISTURE IN
LOW-LEVELS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OVER PARTS OF CNTRL CWA
UNTIL LATE AFTN. AWAY FM LAKE EFFECT...SCT STRATOCU MAY EXPAND WITH
HEATING OF THE DAY...BUT WOULD ONLY BE FLURRIES INLAND DUE TO VERY
LOW INVERSIONS AND NO SUPPORT IN LARGER SCALE. TEMPS IN THE TEENS
MOST AREAS...BUT THAT IS AS COLD AS MAX TEMPS WILL BE THE REST OF
THE WEEK.
SFC RIDGE CENTERS OVER EAST HALF OF CWA WED EVENING THEN DRIFTS TO
LOWER GREAT LAKES BY THU MORNING. BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING AND LIGHT
WINDS WITH THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER EAST HALF IN THE EVENING. RISK OF
LOW CLOUDS STAYING TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION OVER WEST HALF. NAM IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE ON THAT IDEA AND SOMETIMES HAS BIAS TO SO SUCH A
SCENARIO. IN ANY CASE...RETURN FLOW AND/OR CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
FM TANKING WEST...BUT THAT MIGHT NOT BE THE CASE OVER THE EAST. WILL
KEEP FAVORING COLDER GUIDANCE THERE.
RIDGE HEADS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC ON THU WHILE BROAD
AND RATHER COMPLEX AREA OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA ACROSS THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUNDINGS INDICATE MID-HIGH CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY
BUT LOW-LEVELS STAY DRY. EXCEPTION IS OVER INTERIOR WEST HALF WHERE
UPSLOPE SSE WINDS BTWN THE DEPARTING RIDGE AND APPROACHING LOW MAY
HELP DEVELOP LOW CLOUDS/FLURRIES/FZDZ. WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ALOFT
RAMPS UP THU NIGHT INTO FRI. SCENARIO NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR CUT
THOUGH DUE TO DRYING ALOFT THAT IS SHOWN BY ECMWF...WHICH IS WPC
FAVORED MODEL ATTM WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ALSO HAS BEEN MOST
CONSISTENT WITH TRACK OF SFC LOW. WOULD SEE SOME SORT OF SNOW TO
DZ/FZDZ TRANSITION IF DRYING ALOFT OCCURRED AND EVEN THE DZ/FZDZ
RISK LATER THU NIGHT COULD BE AN IFFY PROPOSITION DUE TO LOW-LEVEL
DRYING IN DRY SLOT OF APPROACHING SFC LOW. AREA OF CNTRL UPR
MICHIGAN WITH SSE WINDS PROVIDING UPSLOPE AND MOISTURE OFF LK
MICHIGAN MAY BE THE EXCEPTION. FOR NOW...SHOWED HIGHER/LIKELY POPS
THU EVENING THEN TAPERED TO CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. THOUGH PTYPE
WOULD BE MORE DZ/FZDZ KEPT WITH RAIN/FZRA. DID NOT WANT TO GET TOO
SPECIFIC AS TIMING OUT A DRY SLOT AND ITS AFFECT ON PTYPE IS KIND OF
RISKY 3 DAYS OUT. CONCERNED THAT COLD SFC TEMPS AND ROAD TEMPS MAY
RESULT IN FZRA/ICING AT LEAST ON UNTREATED ROADS LATE THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING EVEN IF AIR TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. WILL BE
SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND ON LATER SHIFTS.
DEEP MOISTURE WOULD THEN FILL BACK IN ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH ARRIVAL
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH/FAVORABLE DYNAMICS. BY TIME THE DEEPER MOISTURE
RETURNS ON FRI...PTYPE WOULD BE LIQUID WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING
DEEP/MOIST WELL ABOVE FREEZING LAYER THROUGH 5KFT/H8. DID KEEP
MENTION OF FZRA 12Z-15Z WHERE TEMPS WERE 35 DEGREES OR LOWER.
EVENTUALLY COLDER AIR WORKS IN BUT IT IS NOT AS EMPHATIC AS IT
LOOKED LIKE A COUPLE NIGHTS AGO. THUS...PTYPE FRI NIGHT AND/OR SAT
COULD STILL HAVE SOME RAIN/SNOW. DOES BECOME SUFFICIENTLY COLD
ENOUGH SAT NIGHT INTO SUN FOR JUST SNOW. 00Z MODELS SHOW SHORTWAVE
CROSSING SO HAVE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ON SUN
WITH SMALL CHANCE OF LES SUN NIGHT INTO MON BEHIND THAT SYSTEM.
TWEAKED TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FM CONSENSUS FOR MON AS 00Z ECMWF/GFS
TRENDED COLDER THAN 12Z/15 SOLNS. ECMWF SHOWS -20C H85 TEMPS
RETURNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
LAKE INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH PREVAILING IFR VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED. SNOW SHOWER INTENSITY LIKELY TO DIMINISH TOWARD DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
EXPECT LIGHT WSW WINDS THIS MORNING TO SHIFT TO THE NNW DURING THE
DAY FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WED UNDER A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
AHEAD OF HI PRES BUILDING INTO FAR NW ONTARIO ON WED MORNING. THERE
MAY BE POCKETS OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE NCENTRAL
LAKE TONIGHT WITH THE INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
UNDER 20KT WED AS HI PRES ARRIVES OVER THE UPPER LAKES. STRONGER SSE
WINDS UP TO 30KT WILL THEN DEVELOP ON THU UNDER A TIGHTENING PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HI AND ANOTHER APPROACHING LO PRES.
OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE...S GALES TO 35 KTS ARE LIKELY AT LEAST
PART OF THE TIME ON THU AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE LO WILL PASS OVER
OR JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR FRI. STRONG W TO NW WINDS UP TO 30KT WILL
THEN FOLLOW INTO FRI NIGHT AND SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPB
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JPB
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
359 PM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
THE HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
TONIGHT.
WE ARE CARRYING UP TO AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST FROM
NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH TONIGHT ROUGHLY
ALONG A LINE FROM WILLISTON TO BISMARCK AND ASHLEY. THAT IS BASED
ON A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC GLOBAL MODEL QPF GUIDANCE AND THE TIME-
LAGGED HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL SUITE /INCLUDING THE RAP AND HRRR/.
RADAR ECHOES ARE INTENSIFYING SOUTHWEST OF THAT LINE AS OF 2145
UTC AS MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES...AND RECENT RAP OUTPUT
SUGGESTS THE FRONTOGENESIS BASED IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER WILL BE
MAXIMIZED OVER CENTRAL ND AROUND 01 UTC. GIVEN A QUICK BURST OF
MODERATE TO STRONG QG-FORCING TIED TO THE EXIT REGION OF A 110 KT
300-MB JET STREAK...THE AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY BE
SUFFICIENTLY DEEP FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF NOTEWORTHY PRECIPITATION
RATES. HOWEVER...RUN-TOTAL QPF FROM THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP
AND HRRR HAS BEEN TRENDING A BIT LOWER THAN ITS EARLIER FLAVORS
AND THE RESIDENCE TIME OF THE FORCING WILL BE SHORT IN ANY ONE
PLACE...WHICH IS WHY WE HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE OVERALL SNOW EVENT.
RELATIVELY WARM LOW- AND MID-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WILL LIKELY
PREVENT EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH TOO...LIMITING THE SNOW-TO-LIQUID
RATIOS TO AROUND 11 TO 1. EVEN SO...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A
PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER
TRENDS IN CASE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SNOWFALL FORECAST ARE NEEDED.
NOTE THAT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW OR OUTRIGHT RAIN IN SOUTHWEST ND THROUGH THIS EVENING. THAT
IDEA IS BEING CARRIED IN THE FORECAST...BUT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
HAVE SUGGESTED WET BULB COOLING HAS BEEN FAVORING SNOW THUS FAR.
FINALLY...WE ARE STILL ADVERTISING A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE TONIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION...AND ALL
THE WAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN CENTRAL ND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW DRYING ALOFT AND A LINGERING STRATUS LAYER THAT IS MAINLY
WARMER THAN -10 C...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL SUPERCOOLED DROPS AND
THUS FREEZING DRIZZLE.
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE WEATHER WILL HAVE QUIETED DOWN WITH
THE AREA BETWEEN WAVES. STRATUS /LOW CLOUDS/ COULD HINDER WARMING
IF IT IS THICK ENOUGH...BUT THE 12 UTC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THAT
WE USED TO BUILD THE FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S F
IN JAMESTOWN TO THE LOWER 50S F IN BOWMAN.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW WITH A MEAN UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH
IN THE EAST WILL RESULT IN SERIES OF SYSTEMS WITH MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND PERIODS OF WINDY CONDITIONS.
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BOTH THE NAM/GFS ARE
ADVERTISING AN H85 COLD POCKET TO WORK ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
AGREE THAT ENOUGH OMEGA WITHIN THE SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLET REGIME
COULD PRODUCE A LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL BEGINNING 09Z-12Z
THURSDAY NOON THURSDAY. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN INTO THE GRIDS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM 09Z-
18Z THURSDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH
00Z FRIDAY BEFORE A DOUBLE AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN ALL POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM BASED UPON LOCATION AND
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE. THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ELEMENT WILL BE
WIND LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS
ARE ADVERTISED FROM MID MORNING FRIDAY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON FRIDAY
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF BETWEEN 40KT AND 45KT ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST...AND 30KT TO 35KT MOST ELSEWHERE. POTENTIAL HIGH WIND
WARNING SOUTHWEST WITH A SOLID WIND ADVISORY MOST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THIS TIME. THE TIME WINDOW OVERALL IS
BRIEF BUT WOULD STILL BE WORTHY OF THE ABOVE IF DATA REMAINS
CONSISTENT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY AND THE ACTUAL CLIPPER
SWEEPING ACROSS SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLATED FOR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS SOUTH. WINDS INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW...WEST TO
NORTHWEST WIND OF 20 TO 30 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST
TO SHIFT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND FAVOR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
MILD HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH UPPER 50S SOUTHWEST
TO MID 40S CENTRAL AND MID 30S TURTLE MOUNTAINS. MILD AIR CONTINUES
INTO FRIDAY WITH GOOD MIXING ALOFT AND WIDESPREAD/MORE UNIFORM HIGHS
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST. A GRADUAL COOL DOWN SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
RAIN AND SNOW WILL SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...MAINLY
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW AFTER 03Z WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN
VARIABLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ALTERNATING BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS AND VISIBILITIES. EXPECT THIS VARIANCE TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE IN
THE WAKE OF THE SNOW...AND WILL BE CONSIDERED FOR INCLUSION IN THE
00 UTC TAFS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 359 PM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
FLUCTUATING WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE ON THE MISSOURI RIVER
THROUGH BISMARCK AND MANDAN THROUGH MIDWEEK. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOK ON OUR WEB PAGE FOR FULL DETAILS. THE LACK OF UPSTREAM
ICE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL HELP TO LOWER THE RISK OF HIGHER
WATER OVER THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...ZH
HYDROLOGY...CJS/AJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1248 PM EST TUE FEB 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
CANADA BY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
TRACK INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THIS EVENING...THEN OFFSHORE BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1050 AM EST TUESDAY...
WINTER STORM WATCH CANCELED FOR REST OF FORECAST AREA. THE RAIN
HAS LIFTED TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN
HAS ENDED THIS MORNING FOR THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE RISING AND
HAVE CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ROADS REMAIN SNOW AND ICE COVERED IN MANY LOCATIONS.
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING CLOSER TO
SURFACE OBS AND TRENDED THE LATE MORNING READINGS TOWARDS A BLEND
OF HRRR AND NAM. LEANED POPS FOR LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON
TOWARDS THE HRRR AND USED WEATHER TOOL WITH NAM PROFILE.
MORE CHANGES LATER TODAY.
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...
UPPER LOW FROM KENTUCKY THROUGH GEORGIA WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST
THIS MORNING. BROAD BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT EXTENDS
SOUTH INTO FLORIDA WILL ALSO MOVE NORTHEAST. EXPECT THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THIS PRECIPITATION TO EXIT THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA AROUND
NOON. HRRR HAS THIS BEST TIMING OF THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION SO
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THIS TIMING IN THE FORECAST.
THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL TRACK INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY BY 00Z WED/7PM THIS EVENING...THEN WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTH CAROLINA. MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW SOME Q-VECTOR FORCING AND
GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENCE WITH THIS FEATURE THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM NOSE AROUND 2500 FEET AGL WERE WELL INTO
THE 40S AND 50S. ALREADY SEEING SOME OF THE WARMER AIR MIXING DOWN
TO THE SURFACE WITH THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES. AT THE SAME TIME THE
WEDGE WAS ERODING FROM BOTH THE EAST AND THE WEST. COLD AIR DAMMING
WILL BE NEARLY GONE BY 8AM...WITH ALL LOCATIONS NOT IN THE WEDGE
ABOVE FREEZING AT THE SURFACE. COLDER AIR FROM 850MB DOWN TO THE
SURFACE WILL COME INTO THE MOUNTAINS BEHIND THE UPPER LOW THIS
AFTERNOON THEN REMAIN BETWEEN -2 TO -5 AT 850 MB OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW A NON DIURNAL TREND TODAY. LOCATIONS
THAT ARE ABOVE FREEZING WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE WINTER STORM
WARNING.
AS THE COASTAL FRONT MOVES EAST AND AIDES IN ERODE THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE WEDGE...THE MUCH WARMER AIR OVER THE COLD GROUND AND SNOW
COVER WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD FOG. VISIBILITIES IN SOME LOCATIONS
WILL BE LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE. IF THESE AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE
CONDITIONS BECOMES WIDESPREAD IN THE PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH
CAROLINA A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. BUT AS OF 3AM...THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE WARMER AIR WAS JUST MOVING THROUGH RALEIGH.
NAM...RAP AND LOCAL WRF SUGGEST THE WARM AIR ADVANCES BRIEFLY INTO
THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS MORNING...JUST BEFORE
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND THE WARM AIR GETS PUSHED BACK EAST.
WINDS ARE ANOTHER RAPIDLY CHANGING FACTOR TODAY. ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE WEDGE...DOWNSLOPE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 35
TO 50 MPH...BUT THE BULK OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET THAT WAS
PRODUCING THESE HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE MOVING EAST THIS MORNING AND
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BY 9AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM EST TUESDAY...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...AND MAINTAIN
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES. ALTHOUGH IT MAY
START AS SNOW...TEMPERATURES COULD RISE ENOUGH TO ALLOW A MIX WITH
RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS MAY STAY
AS SNOW AND ACCUMULATE UP TO A COUPLE INCHES. ELSEWHERE...SOME
PASSING CLOUDS AND A BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD BE EXPECTED. BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY FADE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO PUSH
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC...AND SEND OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING.
ALTHOUGH MORE SUNSHINE WILL RETURN BY THURSDAY...A LINGERING
NORTHWEST BREEZE SHOULD KEEP COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH
THE DAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD PULL AWAY FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD
TAKE PLACE. HOWEVER...CLAM WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COMBINED
WITH ANY REMAINING SNOWPACK...SHOULD SEND LOWS BELOW FREEZING FOR
ANOTHER NIGHT. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WERE HELD ON THE COLDER
SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY
RESIDUAL 500 MB TROUGH WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ON
THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS START TO BUILD FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A RATHER
POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT WILL BE CROSSING
THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BOOT A SURFACE WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LINGERING WEDGE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH REPOSITIONS OFF THE CAROLINAS
BY LATE FRIDAY. RAPID JUMP IN 85H TEMPERATURES UNDER THE
DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE RIDGE LOOKS TO PUSH HIGHS TO JUST ABOVE
NORMAL AFTER REMAINING COOL THURSDAY UNDER THE CANADIAN HIGH TO
THE NORTH. HOWEVER GIVEN SOME LINGERING SNOW PACK AND EVOLVING
TRANSITION OF THE SURFACE HIGH...WILL STAY A BIT BELOW MOS FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY EAST. OTHERWISE DRY BUT STILL ON THE COLD SIDE THURSDAY
NIGHT THEN WARMER FRIDAY.
MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PASS TO THE NORTH TO
START THE WEEKEND WHILE ALLOWING ITS TRAILING TROUGH AXIS TO
FLATTEN THE ONGOING MID LEVEL RIDGING TO SOME DEGREE. THE
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD PRESS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
BUT GIVEN VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...AND MOST COLD ADVECTION TO THE
NORTH APPEARS ONLY A FEW RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY FAR WEST.
WITH COOL AIR LIKELY TO LAG THE FRONT AND LESS CLOUDS HEADING EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS...WOULD EXPECT TEMPS TO REALLY JUMP UNDER
WESTERLY FLOW WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL...MAINLY 50S WEST TO
60S EAST. WEAK BUBBLE HIGH WILL FOLLOW THIS WEAK FRONT ON SUNDAY
WITH SKIES CLEARING BEFORE RETURN MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN LATER
IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGHS. TIMING OF THIS
MOISTURE ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TO
PERHAPS SLOW UP THE NEXT FRONT....PER THE EARLIER EC...SUPPORTS
MAINLY DRY AND CONTINUED MILD SUNDAY. SLOW RETURN TO EASTERN
TROFFINESS APPEARS TO BE IN ORDER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THIS
NEXT FRONT SLIDING ACROSS PRODUCING THE NEED FOR LOW RAIN SHOWER
POPS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BUT STILL OVERALL A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL FOR DAY 7.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1248 PM EST TUESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 30 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
A LOW COMING OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW INTO THE
AREA ALONG WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS. THE TAF SITE WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS KDAN WITH A SOUTHERN TRACK OF
SHORTWAVE. SCATTERED MVFR/IFR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES. KBLF HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
HIGH CONFIDENCES IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPSLOPE IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS. VISIBILITIES AT KBLF AND KLWB WILL OCCASIONALLY DROP
TO MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. BY THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD...AND BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES
THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS TO THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY...BUT IT COULD SPARK SOME MOUNTAIN RAIN SHOWERS
AND LOWER CEILINGS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 1025 AM EST TUESDAY...
PRECIPITATION DONE FOR THIS EVENT AND NOW WATCHING TO SEE IF
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES DEVELOP. A FEW FLOOD ADVISORIES AND
AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS WERE ISSUED WITH THE HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT BUT
VERY LITTLE HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS. STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION (2-DAY) IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND RAIN (MUCH OF IT
FREEZING) HAS RANGED GENERALLY FROM 1 TO 2.5 INCHES WITH UP TO 3+
INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF BEDFORD...EASTERN FRANKLIN AND SOUTHERN
BOTETOURT COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH THIS IS RADAR INDICATED AND NOT
WELL CORROBORATED BY RAIN GAGES. WITH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT RAIN
FALLING ONTO AND INTO A SUBSTANTIAL SNOWPACK THE HYDROLOGIC
RESPONSE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT MUTED. FORECASTS ON THE JAMES HAVE BEEN
REDUCED SLIGHTLY FROM YESTERDAY AND ARE NOW EXPECTING RISES TO
BELOW ACTION STAGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SCOTTSVILLE. BOTH THE NEW
AND GREENBRIER WILL SEE VERY MODEST RISES DUE TO THE SNOWPACK
ABSORBTION AND ONLY SLOW MELT OVER COMING DAYS. THE ONLY FORECAST
POINT SHOWING RFC GUIDANCE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE IS THE DAN RIVER AT
SOUTH BOSTON. IF IT DOES GO ABOVE THIS WOULD BE THE 8TH SEPARATE
FLOOD STAGE EXCEEDANCE SINCE LAST OCTOBER.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JH/RCS
AVIATION...AMS/KK
HYDROLOGY...PC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
928 AM PST TUE FEB 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT OVER NORTHWEST OREGON WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY THEN MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THE FRONT THAT BROUGHT HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF
THE AREA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS MOVED DOWN INTO OREGON AND
WEAKENED. IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE NOW SEEN AT 47N
143W...THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW FLOW ALOFT
IS STILL WSW AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD DEAL OF
MOISTURE OFF TO THE SW OF THE AREA THAT APPEARS TO BE POISED TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE
LATEST HRRR SOLUTIONS THAT BRING PRECIPITATION NE TO AROUND SEATTLE
BY 23Z AND NORTH INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH INTERIOR BY
04Z. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE LATEST HRRR AND GFS20 SOLUTIONS
ARE ON THE ORDER OF 0.1 INCHES IN THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS AND 0.25 TO
0.5 INCHES ON THE COAST. AS A RESULT...POPS AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WERE INCREASED FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PARTICULARLY IN THE INTERIOR. WHILE IT IS PARTLY SUNNY IN
PORT ANGELES EARLY THIS MORNING...MOST OF THE AREA IS SEEING LOW
CLOUDS WITH SOME FOG AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE. AS A RESULT THE CLOUD
COVER FORECAST WAS INCREASED FOR TODAY.
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW WILL PUSH ONSHORE LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING ANOTHER INCREASE IN RAIN...ESPECIALLY
ON THE COAST.
FORECAST MODELS ARE QUITE INCONSISTENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THE
OFFSHORE LOW AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY FEATURE OVER
THE NORTHERN OREGON TO CENTRAL WASHINGTON COASTAL ZONES THAT WILL
PUSH INLAND LATER THU. THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z GFS BOTH SHOWED EITHER
THE OFFSHORE LOW OR POSSIBLY SOME SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
SOUTH WASHINGTON OFFSHORE WATERS THAT WILL PUSH ONSHORE AS A 980-
990MB CENTER ON THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA. THIS TYPE OF SOLUTION WOULD
GIVE RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND POTENTIALLY TO
THE PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS FROM ABOUT EVERETT SOUTHWARD LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE 12Z NAM12 TAKES A 990 MB LOW INTO SEASIDE OREGON THU
AFTERNOON AND KEEPS WIND WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE 12Z GFS20 TAKES
THE MAIN 984 MB CENTER INTO QUEEN CHARLOTTE SOUND WITH A TRIPLE
POINT FEATURE THAT MOVES INLAND AROUND SW WASHINGTON THAT LIFTS NE
INTO THE CENTRAL CASCADES LATE THU AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS IS BREEZY
TO WINDY...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE ECMWF. WITH ALL OF THE
UNCERTAINTY...THE CURRENT FORECAST OF BREEZY CONDITIONS THU
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR NOW. ALBRECHT
.LONG TERM...FROM THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...EXTENDED
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
WESTERN WASHINGTON ON FRIDAY WITH A LITTLE BIT OF A BREAK IN THE
ACTION ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. MODELS STILL GENERATING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.
TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON MONDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. FELTON
&&
.AVIATION...AT 9AM THERE IS SUNSHINE OVER MOST OF THE OLYMPICS AND
ON THE NORTH COAST. THE AIR IS STILL MOIST AND CLOUDY FROM I-5 INTO
THE CASCADES FOR THE MOST PART. A WEAK WARM FRONT OVER NW OREGON
WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND WED...THEN ANOTHER FRONT
ARRIVES LATER WED.
KSEA...THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND
THEN A WEAK WARM FRONT ARRIVES LATE AFTERNOON FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF
RAIN. LIGHT WIND.
&&
.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA
LATER WED THROUGH FRI WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT OF THE
LOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN
END AS THE COLD FRONT THAT PRODUCED HEAVY RAINFALL MOVED INTO OREGON
AND WEAKENED. MOST UNCONTROLLED RIVERS HAVE EITHER CRESTED OR WILL
CREST THIS EVENING. SOME RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE THIS MORNING.
RIVERS WILL GENERALLY RECEDE LATER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH A VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER SNOW LEVELS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND 3000-4000 FEET AND THE FRONT WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE. AT THIS TIME THE FRIDAY FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE RISES
ON AREA RIVERS...BUT RENEWED FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. ALBRECHT/BOWER
&&
.CLIMATE...RAINFALL TOTAL AT SEATTLE-TACOMA AIRPORT THROUGH 3 AM
THIS MORNING FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY WAS 3.53 INCHES. THE NORMAL
FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS 3.50 INCHES. THE RAINFALL TOTAL
FROM DECEMBER 1ST THROUGH 3 AM FEBRUARY 16TH WAS 22.19 INCHES. THE
RECORD FOR THE MOST PRECIPITATION FROM DECEMBER 1ST THROUGH THE
ENTIRE MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS 22.77 INCHES SET IN THE LA NINA YEAR OF
1998-1999.
FELTON
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD BULLETIN FOR DETAILS.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT
FOR GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM PST WEDNESDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO
60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT
10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE
10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT
GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO
CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM-WEST ENTRANCE U.S.
WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
244 PM CST TUE FEB 16 2016
.TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THE LAST OF A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRANSLATES
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DOWN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE REMAINING SNOW
SHOWERS AS RAP AND NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRYING WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE. AS THE LAST OF THE SNOW MOVES
OUT...WINDS WILL VEER TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP ENHANCE COLD AIR ADVECTION...REDUCING
TEMPERATURES. MODEL 925 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE GENERALLY
BETWEEN -12 AND -7C...TAKING THE ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS MODELS INTO
ACCOUNT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS.
CLOUDS LOOK TO SLOWLY DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AS A DRIER AIR MASS
SLOWLY MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM MANITOBA WILL TRANSLATE OVER OUR
REGION...KEEPING CONDITIONS QUIET FOR WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER THAN THEY WERE TUESDAY AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING...BUT GENERALLY ABOVE A DECOUPLED
BOUNDARY LAYER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LOW TEMP WILL
LIKELY OCCUR RIGHT AFTER SUNSET...THEN SLOWLY RISE AS ELEVATED
WARM ADVECTION ARRIVES. DESPITE THE WAA...MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO
STILL DRY.
.THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BEGIN TO KICK OUT OF THE NRN
ROCKIES AND INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY LATE THU AFTERNOON. SFC
CYCLOGENESIS WILL BEGIN ON THU OVR THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING SUSTAINED AND VERY DEEP WARM
AIR ADVECTION TO HIT WRN WI THU AFTN...THEN CONTINUES INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THERE/S A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
WEST LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BUT PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE AND
SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF SRN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE FOCUSED NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND MADISON.
TEMPS WILL STAY WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP IT ALL RAIN.
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW HAS STRONG CONSENSUS AMONG THE
MODELS...MOVING ACROSS THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY. THIS PUTS
US SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE SYSTEM WILL BE OCCLUDED...BUT
IT/S POSSIBLE THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL GET JUST NORTH OF THE WI/IL
STATE LINE BETWEEN 6-10AM FRI MORNING. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE WILL
BE ABLE TO HIT THE LOWER AND POSSIBLY MID 50S FROM KJVL TO KENW.
THE SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL
LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY MID DAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SHOT COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL LIKELY ONLY LOWER TEMPS A BIT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. IF WE GET SOME CLEARING IN THE DRY SLOT
BEHIND THE FRONT...WE MAY EVEN SEE TEMPS RISE A BIT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.
WE DON/T SEE STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW...SO SATURDAY
IS SHAPING UP TO BE QUITE MILD AGAIN WITH HIGHS HITTING THE MID
AND UPPER 40S. IF WE CAN GET MORE SUNSHINE...IT/S POSSIBLE WE
COULD SEE SOME LOW 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN. DRY THIS PERIOD.
.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
A VERY WEAK TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING US A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
NOT MUCH IMPACT FOR SURE. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO SINK CLOSER TO
SEASONAL LEVELS ONCE THIS MOVES THROUGH BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS...TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS SOME FLURRIES/-
SN CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH S WI. VSBYS WILL IMPROVE ONCE THE LIGHT
SNOW MOVES OUT...WHICH SHOULD BE BETWEEN 6 AND 9 PM CST TONIGHT. ANY
SNOW THAT FALLS WILL BE MORE OF THE DRY TYPE WITH SNOW-TO-LIQUID
RATIOS OF 16:1 THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN STEEP OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
LOW CIGS IN THE AREA...WITH CIG HEIGHTS BETWEEN 1-3 KFT POSSIBLE.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH MORE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM
CANADA.
EXPECT VFR SKY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS SKIES WILL
CHANGE FROM OVC/BKN CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT TO SCT/FEW AS A DRIER AIR
MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
&&
.MARINE...
GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH WAVES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN...AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES BY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. GUSTS COULD BE BETWEEN 25-
30 KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME...WHICH SHOULD BRING THESE GUSTY WINDS AND
BUILDING WAVES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD
IN LATER FORECASTS.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...JTS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DAVIS