Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 02/11/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
220 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...
334 AM CST
THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE FORECAST THEME OF LIGHT SNOW WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE SNOW
SHOWERS REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATION. ATTENTION ALSO IS ON PORTER COUNTY INDIANA WHERE
TEMPORARY BUT MORE APPRECIABLE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AT TIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME NO HEADLINES ARE
PLANNED TO BE ISSUED AS ONLY MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME AND SOME UNCERTAINTY ON DURATION. AN AREA WIDE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT WAS AGAIN ISSUED AND ONE MORE FOCUSED FOR PORTER
COUNTY. ALSO ON TRACK IS THE COLD WHICH LOOKS TO PROVIDE AREA WIDE
SUBZERO WIND CHILLS TO START WEDNESDAY MORNING AND PROBABLY
THURSDAY TOO.
THE IMPRESSIVELY AMPLIFIED TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA IS
EVER SO SLOWLY INCHING EASTWARD. WITH A VIGOROUS 150KT UPPER JET
ON ITS WESTERN EDGE...THERE REMAINS NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE DISTURBANCES AND THEIR LIFT
WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
HELP THE SNOW TO CONTINUE TODAY. THE LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL BRING SHARPLY REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND SWATHS OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. A
GENERAL WEST-TO-EAST FADE IN THIS SYNOPTIC ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND LITTLE IF AT ALL TODAY WITH MID TEENS TO MID 20S EXPECTED
FROM WEST TO EAST WITH WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH ADDING AN EXTRA CHILL
TO THE AIR.
AS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE LOW LEVELS...CHARACTERIZED BY 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING
TO -15C OR COLDER BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WILL HELP STRENGTHEN LAKE-
INDUCED INSTABILITY. MODIFIED RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS FOR MID 30S
SURFACE TEMPERATURES PROVIDE CAPE OF 50 J/KG MUCH OF TODAY. BOTH
OF THESE MODELS INDICATE TRANSIENT BUT STRONG LOW-LEVEL OMEGA INTO
PORTER COUNTY TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
TO BE SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED DUE TO A LACK OF A CONFLUENT
FOCUS...BUT STILL ENOUGH OF A DURATION TO PROVIDE 12-24 HOUR
SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 2-3 POSSIBLY 4 INCHES TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
THE HIGHER END IN NORTHEAST PORTER. THE BETTER SIGNAL FOR THE
CONFLUENT FLOW REMAINS JUST EAST OF OUR AREA WHERE ADVISORIES WILL
GO INTO EFFECT FROM ADJACENT NWS NORTHERN INDIANA DURING THE MID-
AFTERNOON.
THE STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW STILL IN PLACE TONIGHT SHOULD WARRANT
CLOUDS THOUGH SOME BREAKS COULD HAPPEN IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THE 4KM SPC WRF COLUMN CONDENSATE FIELD WHICH
OFTEN DOES WELL WITH CAA STRATOCU KEEPS CLOUDS AROUND A GOOD PART
OF THE NIGHT AS WELL...LENDING TO A LITTLE HIGHER CONFIDENCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL WITHIN THIS REGIME AND SINGLE DIGITS
ARE EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THE
CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD COVER DROPS QUITE A BIT WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH DO ANTICIPATE A GENERAL DIMINISHING TREND
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE A CHILLY ONE...WITH
SOME OUTLYING NEAR OR EVEN SUBZERO LOWS POSSIBLE.
SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY OUTSIDE OF SOME
CONTINUED LIGHTER LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN PORTER
COUNTY...ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE GRADUALLY
BACKING SO IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE MUCH.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
345 AM CST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
WINTER CONTINUES GOING FORWARD INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SHEARED SHORT WAVE DIVING OVER OR NEAR THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW.
MOST MODELS AND EVEN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE LIGHT QPF WITH
THIS. IT IS A FEW DAYS AWAY YET BUT IT HAS THE LOOK OF ONE OF
THOSE CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEMS THAT COULD PRODUCE A NARROW SWATH OF
POSSIBLY A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW GIVEN FAVORABLE THERMAL PROFILES
FOR SNOW GROWTH AND LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WINDS.
THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET AGAIN BUCKLES BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WITH AN ARCTIC HIGH OF 1040MB + EXPECTED
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SYNOPTIC
REGIME CONTINUES TO RESEMBLE ONE THAT COULD SUPPORT MESOSCALE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW...POSSIBLY EVEN HEAVY...WITH CONVERGENCE POINTED
TOWARD SOME OF THE CWA. AT THIS TIME THAT LOOKS TO BE MORE
NORTHWEST INDIANA. AGAIN FAR TOO EARLY FOR SOMETHING OF THAT SCALE
TO HAVE BIG CONFIDENCE IN...BUT DID INCREASE SNOW CHANCES IN FAR
NORTHWEST INDIANA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
EXPECT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THOUGH AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS EXPECT VARIABLE HIGH END MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOWER
CHANCES FOR IFR. RAP/HRRR MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT AN UPTICK IN
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING SO ADJUSTED TIMING OF THE TEMPO TO FIT THE
BEST WINDOW OF IFR OR NEAR IFR CONDITIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A DEEP SATURATED LAYER WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE MEANING THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRIMED TO PRODUCE DECENT SIZED DENDRITES...
HOWEVER THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT SOURCE OF FORCING. THAT
SAID...PROBABLY WONT TAKE MUCH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SNOW THIS
EVENING AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING WITH MODEST MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS AS FAR SOUTH AS CHICAGOLAND. KEYING IN ON THIS TO
TIME THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONDITIONS TO LOWER AGAIN...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE VERY
BENIGN FORCING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT MUCH OF THE TIME.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
218 PM CST
A MODERATELY STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT PERSISTS
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN BETWEEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. LOW
END GALES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF
THE LAKE THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF COLD
TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAKE AND 30 TO 35 KT WINDS WILL RESULT IN
SOME FREEZING SPRAY AS WELL. WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH AND BACK TO
WEST-NORTHWEST THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE NOSES CLOSER AND THE GRADIENT
RELAXES...HOWEVER ANOTHER LOW IS PROGGED TO FORM OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND WILL PUSH ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE BACK
TO AT LEAST 30 KT AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME GALES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY...ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY AS BITTERLY COLD AIR
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 AM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1145 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...
334 AM CST
THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE FORECAST THEME OF LIGHT SNOW WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE SNOW
SHOWERS REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATION. ATTENTION ALSO IS ON PORTER COUNTY INDIANA WHERE
TEMPORARY BUT MORE APPRECIABLE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AT TIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME NO HEADLINES ARE
PLANNED TO BE ISSUED AS ONLY MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME AND SOME UNCERTAINTY ON DURATION. AN AREA WIDE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT WAS AGAIN ISSUED AND ONE MORE FOCUSED FOR PORTER
COUNTY. ALSO ON TRACK IS THE COLD WHICH LOOKS TO PROVIDE AREA WIDE
SUBZERO WIND CHILLS TO START WEDNESDAY MORNING AND PROBABLY
THURSDAY TOO.
THE IMPRESSIVELY AMPLIFIED TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA IS
EVER SO SLOWLY INCHING EASTWARD. WITH A VIGOROUS 150KT UPPER JET
ON ITS WESTERN EDGE...THERE REMAINS NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE DISTURBANCES AND THEIR LIFT
WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
HELP THE SNOW TO CONTINUE TODAY. THE LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL BRING SHARPLY REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND SWATHS OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. A
GENERAL WEST-TO-EAST FADE IN THIS SYNOPTIC ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND LITTLE IF AT ALL TODAY WITH MID TEENS TO MID 20S EXPECTED
FROM WEST TO EAST WITH WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH ADDING AN EXTRA CHILL
TO THE AIR.
AS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE LOW LEVELS...CHARACTERIZED BY 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING
TO -15C OR COLDER BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WILL HELP STRENGTHEN LAKE-
INDUCED INSTABILITY. MODIFIED RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS FOR MID 30S
SURFACE TEMPERATURES PROVIDE CAPE OF 50 J/KG MUCH OF TODAY. BOTH
OF THESE MODELS INDICATE TRANSIENT BUT STRONG LOW-LEVEL OMEGA INTO
PORTER COUNTY TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
TO BE SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED DUE TO A LACK OF A CONFLUENT
FOCUS...BUT STILL ENOUGH OF A DURATION TO PROVIDE 12-24 HOUR
SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 2-3 POSSIBLY 4 INCHES TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
THE HIGHER END IN NORTHEAST PORTER. THE BETTER SIGNAL FOR THE
CONFLUENT FLOW REMAINS JUST EAST OF OUR AREA WHERE ADVISORIES WILL
GO INTO EFFECT FROM ADJACENT NWS NORTHERN INDIANA DURING THE MID-
AFTERNOON.
THE STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW STILL IN PLACE TONIGHT SHOULD WARRANT
CLOUDS THOUGH SOME BREAKS COULD HAPPEN IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THE 4KM SPC WRF COLUMN CONDENSATE FIELD WHICH
OFTEN DOES WELL WITH CAA STRATOCU KEEPS CLOUDS AROUND A GOOD PART
OF THE NIGHT AS WELL...LENDING TO A LITTLE HIGHER CONFIDENCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL WITHIN THIS REGIME AND SINGLE DIGITS
ARE EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THE
CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD COVER DROPS QUITE A BIT WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH DO ANTICIPATE A GENERAL DIMINISHING TREND
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE A CHILLY ONE...WITH
SOME OUTLYING NEAR OR EVEN SUBZERO LOWS POSSIBLE.
SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY OUTSIDE OF SOME
CONTINUED LIGHTER LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN PORTER
COUNTY...ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE GRADUALLY
BACKING SO IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE MUCH.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
345 AM CST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
WINTER CONTINUES GOING FORWARD INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SHEARED SHORT WAVE DIVING OVER OR NEAR THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW.
MOST MODELS AND EVEN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE LIGHT QPF WITH
THIS. IT IS A FEW DAYS AWAY YET BUT IT HAS THE LOOK OF ONE OF
THOSE CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEMS THAT COULD PRODUCE A NARROW SWATH OF
POSSIBLY A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW GIVEN FAVORABLE THERMAL PROFILES
FOR SNOW GROWTH AND LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WINDS.
THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET AGAIN BUCKLES BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WITH AN ARCTIC HIGH OF 1040MB + EXPECTED
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SYNOPTIC
REGIME CONTINUES TO RESEMBLE ONE THAT COULD SUPPORT MESOSCALE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW...POSSIBLY EVEN HEAVY...WITH CONVERGENCE POINTED
TOWARD SOME OF THE CWA. AT THIS TIME THAT LOOKS TO BE MORE
NORTHWEST INDIANA. AGAIN FAR TOO EARLY FOR SOMETHING OF THAT SCALE
TO HAVE BIG CONFIDENCE IN...BUT DID INCREASE SNOW CHANCES IN FAR
NORTHWEST INDIANA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
EXPECT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THOUGH AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS EXPECT VARIABLE HIGH END MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOWER
CHANCES FOR IFR. RAP/HRRR MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT AN UPTICK IN
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING SO ADJUSTED TIMING OF THE TEMPO TO FIT THE
BEST WINDOW OF IFR OR NEAR IFR CONDITIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A DEEP SATURATED LAYER WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE MEANING THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRIMED TO PRODUCE DECENT SIZED DENDRITES...
HOWEVER THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT SOURCE OF FORCING. THAT
SAID...PROBABLY WONT TAKE MUCH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SNOW THIS
EVENING AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING WITH MODEST MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS AS FAR SOUTH AS CHICAGOLAND. KEYING IN ON THIS TO
TIME THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONDITIONS TO LOWER AGAIN...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE VERY
BENIGN FORCING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT MUCH OF THE TIME.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
258 AM CST
ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE FROM
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS JUST
HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE THE WARNING...BUT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ANY
GALES WILL BE ON THE LOW END OF THE SPECTRUM. NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH GOES THROUGH THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE IL NEARSHORE WATERS...AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS DUE TO HAZARDOUS WINDS AND
WAVES.
A WEAK LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO REACHES NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...AND
THEN MERGES WITH A DEEPER LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD SOUTH
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO LOW END GALES THIS MORNING AND PERSIST
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
LAKE. OCCASIONAL GALES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
LAKE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS TO HOIST A GALE WARNING
FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE LAKE.
THE HIGH PASSES SOUTH OF THE LAKE THURSDAY EVENING AND WINDS WILL
BECOME WEST 15-25 KT. A WEAK LOW FORMS OVER ONTARIO THURSDAY
EVENING AND REACHES NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME A
LARGE HIGH SPREADS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS INCREASING TO AT LEAST 30 KT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE LAKE
SATURDAY EVENING AND CONTINUES EAST TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOME SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH SUNDAY.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 AM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
545 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...
334 AM CST
THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE FORECAST THEME OF LIGHT SNOW WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE SNOW
SHOWERS REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATION. ATTENTION ALSO IS ON PORTER COUNTY INDIANA WHERE
TEMPORARY BUT MORE APPRECIABLE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AT TIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME NO HEADLINES ARE
PLANNED TO BE ISSUED AS ONLY MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME AND SOME UNCERTAINTY ON DURATION. AN AREA WIDE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT WAS AGAIN ISSUED AND ONE MORE FOCUSED FOR PORTER
COUNTY. ALSO ON TRACK IS THE COLD WHICH LOOKS TO PROVIDE AREA WIDE
SUBZERO WIND CHILLS TO START WEDNESDAY MORNING AND PROBABLY
THURSDAY TOO.
THE IMPRESSIVELY AMPLIFIED TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA IS
EVER SO SLOWLY INCHING EASTWARD. WITH A VIGOROUS 150KT UPPER JET
ON ITS WESTERN EDGE...THERE REMAINS NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE DISTURBANCES AND THEIR LIFT
WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
HELP THE SNOW TO CONTINUE TODAY. THE LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL BRING SHARPLY REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND SWATHS OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. A
GENERAL WEST-TO-EAST FADE IN THIS SYNOPTIC ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND LITTLE IF AT ALL TODAY WITH MID TEENS TO MID 20S EXPECTED
FROM WEST TO EAST WITH WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH ADDING AN EXTRA CHILL
TO THE AIR.
AS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE LOW LEVELS...CHARACTERIZED BY 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING
TO -15C OR COLDER BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WILL HELP STRENGTHEN LAKE-
INDUCED INSTABILITY. MODIFIED RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS FOR MID 30S
SURFACE TEMPERATURES PROVIDE CAPE OF 50 J/KG MUCH OF TODAY. BOTH
OF THESE MODELS INDICATE TRANSIENT BUT STRONG LOW-LEVEL OMEGA INTO
PORTER COUNTY TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
TO BE SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED DUE TO A LACK OF A CONFLUENT
FOCUS...BUT STILL ENOUGH OF A DURATION TO PROVIDE 12-24 HOUR
SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 2-3 POSSIBLY 4 INCHES TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
THE HIGHER END IN NORTHEAST PORTER. THE BETTER SIGNAL FOR THE
CONFLUENT FLOW REMAINS JUST EAST OF OUR AREA WHERE ADVISORIES WILL
GO INTO EFFECT FROM ADJACENT NWS NORTHERN INDIANA DURING THE MID-
AFTERNOON.
THE STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW STILL IN PLACE TONIGHT SHOULD WARRANT
CLOUDS THOUGH SOME BREAKS COULD HAPPEN IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THE 4KM SPC WRF COLUMN CONDENSATE FIELD WHICH
OFTEN DOES WELL WITH CAA STRATOCU KEEPS CLOUDS AROUND A GOOD PART
OF THE NIGHT AS WELL...LENDING TO A LITTLE HIGHER CONFIDENCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL WITHIN THIS REGIME AND SINGLE DIGITS
ARE EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THE
CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD COVER DROPS QUITE A BIT WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH DO ANTICIPATE A GENERAL DIMINISHING TREND
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE A CHILLY ONE...WITH
SOME OUTLYING NEAR OR EVEN SUBZERO LOWS POSSIBLE.
SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY OUTSIDE OF SOME
CONTINUED LIGHTER LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN PORTER
COUNTY...ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE GRADUALLY
BACKING SO IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE MUCH.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
345 AM CST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
WINTER CONTINUES GOING FORWARD INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SHEARED SHORT WAVE DIVING OVER OR NEAR THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW.
MOST MODELS AND EVEN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE LIGHT QPF WITH
THIS. IT IS A FEW DAYS AWAY YET BUT IT HAS THE LOOK OF ONE OF
THOSE CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEMS THAT COULD PRODUCE A NARROW SWATH OF
POSSIBLY A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW GIVEN FAVORABLE THERMAL PROFILES
FOR SNOW GROWTH AND LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WINDS.
THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET AGAIN BUCKLES BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WITH AN ARCTIC HIGH OF 1040MB + EXPECTED
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SYNOPTIC
REGIME CONTINUES TO RESEMBLE ONE THAT COULD SUPPORT MESOSCALE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW...POSSIBLY EVEN HEAVY...WITH CONVERGENCE POINTED
TOWARD SOME OF THE CWA. AT THIS TIME THAT LOOKS TO BE MORE
NORTHWEST INDIANA. AGAIN FAR TOO EARLY FOR SOMETHING OF THAT SCALE
TO HAVE BIG CONFIDENCE IN...BUT DID INCREASE SNOW CHANCES IN FAR
NORTHWEST INDIANA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES EXPECTED. LOW END VFR/HIGH END MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL NOT BECOME MORE NORTH THAN
320 DEGREES. ON THE OTHER HAND...HAVE MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE IN
SNOW INTENSITY THIS AFTN. GUIDANCE FEATURES INCREASING
FORCING...SO KEPT A TEMPO FOR IFR VSBY WITH MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS.
SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING WITH VFR CIGS.
GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE SUMMARY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT SNOW INTO THIS
EVENING AND GUSTY NW WINDS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS...AND
MEDIUM- LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND OCCURRENCE OF MODERATE SNOW
SHOWERS THIS AFTN.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
258 AM CST
ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE FROM
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS JUST
HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE THE WARNING...BUT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ANY
GALES WILL BE ON THE LOW END OF THE SPECTRUM. NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH GOES THROUGH THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE IL NEARSHORE WATERS...AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS DUE TO HAZARDOUS WINDS AND
WAVES.
A WEAK LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO REACHES NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...AND
THEN MERGES WITH A DEEPER LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD SOUTH
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO LOW END GALES THIS MORNING AND PERSIST
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
LAKE. OCCASIONAL GALES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
LAKE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS TO HOIST A GALE WARNING
FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE LAKE.
THE HIGH PASSES SOUTH OF THE LAKE THURSDAY EVENING AND WINDS WILL
BECOME WEST 15-25 KT. A WEAK LOW FORMS OVER ONTARIO THURSDAY
EVENING AND REACHES NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME A
LARGE HIGH SPREADS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS INCREASING TO AT LEAST 30 KT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE LAKE
SATURDAY EVENING AND CONTINUES EAST TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOME SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH SUNDAY.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 AM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
345 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...
334 AM CST
THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE FORECAST THEME OF LIGHT SNOW WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE SNOW
SHOWERS REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATION. ATTENTION ALSO IS ON PORTER COUNTY INDIANA WHERE
TEMPORARY BUT MORE APPRECIABLE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AT TIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME NO HEADLINES ARE
PLANNED TO BE ISSUED AS ONLY MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME AND SOME UNCERTAINTY ON DURATION. AN AREA WIDE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT WAS AGAIN ISSUED AND ONE MORE FOCUSED FOR PORTER
COUNTY. ALSO ON TRACK IS THE COLD WHICH LOOKS TO PROVIDE AREA WIDE
SUBZERO WIND CHILLS TO START WEDNESDAY MORNING AND PROBABLY
THURSDAY TOO.
THE IMPRESSIVELY AMPLIFIED TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA IS
EVER SO SLOWLY INCHING EASTWARD. WITH A VIGOROUS 150KT UPPER JET
ON ITS WESTERN EDGE...THERE REMAINS NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE DISTURBANCES AND THEIR LIFT
WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
HELP THE SNOW TO CONTINUE TODAY. THE LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL BRING SHARPLY REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND SWATHS OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. A
GENERAL WEST-TO-EAST FADE IN THIS SYNOPTIC ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND LITTLE IF AT ALL TODAY WITH MID TEENS TO MID 20S EXPECTED
FROM WEST TO EAST WITH WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH ADDING AN EXTRA CHILL
TO THE AIR.
AS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE LOW LEVELS...CHARACTERIZED BY 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING
TO -15C OR COLDER BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WILL HELP STRENGTHEN LAKE-
INDUCED INSTABILITY. MODIFIED RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS FOR MID 30S
SURFACE TEMPERATURES PROVIDE CAPE OF 50 J/KG MUCH OF TODAY. BOTH
OF THESE MODELS INDICATE TRANSIENT BUT STRONG LOW-LEVEL OMEGA INTO
PORTER COUNTY TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
TO BE SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED DUE TO A LACK OF A CONFLUENT
FOCUS...BUT STILL ENOUGH OF A DURATION TO PROVIDE 12-24 HOUR
SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 2-3 POSSIBLY 4 INCHES TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
THE HIGHER END IN NORTHEAST PORTER. THE BETTER SIGNAL FOR THE
CONFLUENT FLOW REMAINS JUST EAST OF OUR AREA WHERE ADVISORIES WILL
GO INTO EFFECT FROM ADJACENT NWS NORTHERN INDIANA DURING THE MID-
AFTERNOON.
THE STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW STILL IN PLACE TONIGHT SHOULD WARRANT
CLOUDS THOUGH SOME BREAKS COULD HAPPEN IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THE 4KM SPC WRF COLUMN CONDENSATE FIELD WHICH
OFTEN DOES WELL WITH CAA STRATOCU KEEPS CLOUDS AROUND A GOOD PART
OF THE NIGHT AS WELL...LENDING TO A LITTLE HIGHER CONFIDENCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL WITHIN THIS REGIME AND SINGLE DIGITS
ARE EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THE
CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD COVER DROPS QUITE A BIT WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH DO ANTICIPATE A GENERAL DIMINISHING TREND
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE A CHILLY ONE...WITH
SOME OUTLYING NEAR OR EVEN SUBZERO LOWS POSSIBLE.
SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY OUTSIDE OF SOME
CONTINUED LIGHTER LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN PORTER
COUNTY...ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE GRADUALLY
BACKING SO IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE MUCH.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
345 AM CST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
WINTER CONTINUES GOING FORWARD INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SHEARED SHORT WAVE DIVING OVER OR NEAR THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW.
MOST MODELS AND EVEN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE LIGHT QPF WITH
THIS. IT IS A FEW DAYS AWAY YET BUT IT HAS THE LOOK OF ONE OF
THOSE CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEMS THAT COULD PRODUCE A NARROW SWATH OF
POSSIBLY A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW GIVEN FAVORABLE THERMAL PROFILES
FOR SNOW GROWTH AND LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WINDS.
THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET AGAIN BUCKLES BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WITH AN ARCTIC HIGH OF 1040MB + EXPECTED
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SYNOPTIC
REGIME CONTINUES TO RESEMBLE ONE THAT COULD SUPPORT MESOSCALE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW...POSSIBLY EVEN HEAVY...WITH CONVERGENCE POINTED
TOWARD SOME OF THE CWA. AT THIS TIME THAT LOOKS TO BE MORE
NORTHWEST INDIANA. AGAIN FAR TOO EARLY FOR SOMETHING OF THAT SCALE
TO HAVE BIG CONFIDENCE IN...BUT DID INCREASE SNOW CHANCES IN FAR
NORTHWEST INDIANA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE AVIATION
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN AND FOCUS
CONTINUES TO BE TIMING THE BEST WINDOW OF LOWER VSBY AND POTENTIAL
ACCUMULATIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. GYY AND MDW LOOKS TO
BE IN FAVORED CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS/09-10Z...FOR
TEMPORARY IFR AND EVEN LIFR VSBY AT TIMES. FOR ORD/DPA...GENERALLY
MVFR VSBY IN SNOW SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE
OUT IFR VSBY AT TIMES. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON A
SUBTLE WAVE THAT COULD RE-ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES TOWARD DAYBREAK.
AGAIN...GYY SHOULD BE MOST FAVORED...EVEN WITH SOME ADDED LAKE
ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL. RFD AREA COULD FINALLY GET INTO SOME SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER 07Z...AND POTENTIALLY IFR VSBY AT TIMES.
THE REST OF THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK LIFT COULD YIELD ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS AT ANY TIME. CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN THE PROB30 GROUP
DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR IFR VSBY FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF FOR
ORD/MDW/GYY/DPA GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO LOWER
IN CIGS...AS THERE ARE POCKETS OF VFR OVER THE AREA. GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING A SIGNAL FOR INCREASED LOW-MID MVFR CIG POTENTIAL DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE WEST-
NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE THIS MORNING THROUGH
TONIGHT.
RC
&&
.MARINE...
258 AM CST
ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE FROM
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS JUST
HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE THE WARNING...BUT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ANY
GALES WILL BE ON THE LOW END OF THE SPECTRUM. NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH GOES THROUGH THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE IL NEARSHORE WATERS...AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS DUE TO HAZARDOUS WINDS AND
WAVES.
A WEAK LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO REACHES NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...AND
THEN MERGES WITH A DEEPER LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD SOUTH
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO LOW END GALES THIS MORNING AND PERSIST
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
LAKE. OCCASIONAL GALES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
LAKE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS TO HOIST A GALE WARNING
FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE LAKE.
THE HIGH PASSES SOUTH OF THE LAKE THURSDAY EVENING AND WINDS WILL
BECOME WEST 15-25 KT. A WEAK LOW FORMS OVER ONTARIO THURSDAY
EVENING AND REACHES NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME A
LARGE HIGH SPREADS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS INCREASING TO AT LEAST 30 KT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE LAKE
SATURDAY EVENING AND CONTINUES EAST TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOME SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH SUNDAY.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 AM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
329 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DEALT WITH
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE WEST.
LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER RUC FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. TIMING OF
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE
BRINGING IN CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. THINK THERE WILL BE A
LONG ENOUGH WINDOW OVER THE NORTHEAST TO ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET
BELOW ZERO...EVEN WITH THE WINDS REMAINING AROUND 5-10 KNOTS. MAY
SEE SEE A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND ACROSS THE WEST BUT TIMING OF THE
CLOUD COVER TO ENTER THE WEST LOOKS MORE LIKELY BY 09Z.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE
FLOW EVERY 36-48 HRS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS FLOW WILL FINALLY BREAK OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE HUDSON BAY
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS ALLOWING A GRADUAL TRANSITION
TO MORE WESTERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES (POSSIBLY MUCH
WARMER) TOWARDS NEXT TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY IN THE 7-10 DAY
RANGE.
THE FIRST SHORT WAVE ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING LIGHT
SNOW TO MUCH OF THE AREA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO ONE AND
ONE HALF INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WITH ABOVE CLIMO SNOW RATIOS
A DEEP DENDRITIC LAYER AND A PERIOD OF MODERATE FORCING. THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AND ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE INCH
EXPECTED. FORTUNATELY THE WIND DURING THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO
BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. BREEZIER CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT COULD CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW PROBLEMS IN REGARDS TO CAUSING
SNOW COVERED ROADS BUT CERTAINLY NOT A HEADLINE CRITERIA EVENT.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRANSITION FLOW.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN THE TWO
PREDECESSORS...THEREFORE MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR 2+ INCHES OF
SNOW. THE TRANSITION TO SFC SOUTHERLY FLOW BY MONDAY WILL BRING
WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY OTHERWISE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE NEAR TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...09/18Z
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
MVFR STRATUS LOOKS TO AFFECT ALO/OTM OVER NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH
SOME FLURRIES FALLING AT OTM. MCW REPORTING FALSE CEILINGS AS MUCH
OF THE WEB CAMERAS AND IDOT PLOW CAMERAS...AND PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
REMAINS CLEAR. SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...MIGHT SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR VIS BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AND LEFT OUT MENTION ATTM AT MCW. OTHERWISE...WINDS FINALLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE STATE. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ENTIRE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT AT
OTM/ALO AS MENTIONED ABOVE.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
304 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
18Z SFC DATA HAS A SEASONABLY STRONG LOW OVER LAKE HURON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. DEW
POINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S RAN FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS MUCH OF WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS WITH MORE ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN IOWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
BASED ON RADAR AND RAP MODEL TRENDS...THE FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
RATHER RAPID DISSIPATION SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
TONIGHT...PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT
THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF CLEAR SKIES BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE
BACK INTO THE AREA. THE PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW
ZERO.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN REASONABLY BRISK DURING THE EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING LATE. AS A RESULT...WIND CHILLS WILL DROP
WELL BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. THE EXTREME NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA
MAY SEE WIND CHILLS APPROACH 20 BELOW ZERO PRIOR TO SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.
QUIET AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS CLOUDS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING CLIPPER
TYPE SYSTEM. BY MID WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF A
VINTON IOWA...TO MACOMB ILLINOIS LINE WILL SEE LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP OR
MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE DRY ATMOSPHERE OVER THE AREA MAY INITIALLY
LIMIT ANY SNOW TO FLURRIES BUT LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE OCCURRING BY
LATE AFTERNOON.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BY SUNSET WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNDER AN
INCH OF ACCUMULATION.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM REMAINS TO BE A SERIES OF
CLIPPERS THAT ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA ALONG WITH A 1040+
HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND. SNOWFALL TOTALS LOOK TO BE LIGHT WITH
THESE SYSTEMS...HOWEVER...DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
EXPECT FORECASTS TO VARY GREATLY LEADING INTO THE EVENT. WIND
CHILLS ON FRIDAY NIGHT STILL APPEAR TO REACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY
LEVELS.
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...A CLIPPER SHOULD BE WELL PAST THE
CWA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. DETERMINISTIC GRIDDED AND SPECTRAL
MODELS SUGGEST THAT QPF WILL BE OVER FOR MUCH OF THE CWA BY 00Z
THURSDAY. HIRES CAMS KEEP ALL OF THE PRECIP SOUTH OF THE CWA AND
RESULT IN NO SNOW AFTER 00Z THU. AS SUCH...DECIDED TO NOT ADD ANY
QPF OR SNOW ACCUM DURING THIS PERIOD. DECIDED TO ERR ON THE SIDE
OF CAUTION AND INCLUDE A SCHC OF SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD.
THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE A QUIET DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO TRANSVERSE THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING. THE GEM APPEARS TO SEND THIS CLIPPER WELL INTO THE
CWA WITH COVERAGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS IS AT ODDS WITH THE
REST OF THE MODELS. AS SUCH...WILL GO WITH SCHC TO CHC POPS AT THIS
TIME. THIS FORECAST WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS MODELS MOVE BACK AND
FORTH. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE AREA WILL
SEE LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IF THE GEM VERIFIES.
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY A STRONG 1040+ HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL LEAD TO COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND A CHANCE FOR
WIND CHILL HEADLINES POSSIBLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AM. THE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY.
ON SUNDAY A STRONG WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE N CONUS.
GUIDANCE PREDICTS QPF ACROSS THE AREA. WARMER AIR WILL LIKELY BE
ADVECTED NORTH BY THIS WAVE. AT THIS TIME THERE ARE TOO MANY
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS TO SAY ANYTHING MORE THAN THERE WILL
BE A CHC FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
MVFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
WITH POCKETS OF VFR CONDITIONS THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 02Z/10 THAT MAY
IMPACT A TAF SITE. IF A SNOW SHOWER IMPACTS A TAF SITE A VERY BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE STRONGER SHOWERS.
AFT 00Z/10 CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1241 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. VERY COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT THE
END OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
NORTHEAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1210 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTMENTS MADE THIS UPDATE INCLUDE MINOR CHGS TO
6 HRLY SNFL AND STM TOTAL SNFL AND TO PROVIDE BETTER ENDING TMG OF
WNTR WX ADVS FROM S TO N...RANGING FROM 11 AM ALG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...TO 3 PM FOR CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA AND THE ORGNL 7 PM ENDING
FOR NRN ZONES...MORE IN LN WHEN POPS DROP TO CHC WHEN STEADY SN
TAPERS TO SCT SN SHWRS.
OTHERWISE...ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS...CLD CVR AND HRLY/LOW
TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVRNGT. WITH REGARD TO LOW
TEMPS...WE RAISED THEM A FEW DEG...THINKING THAT TEMPS WILL ONLY
FALL A FEW DEG DUE TO DYNAMIC COOLING FROM SNFL.
PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW CHANCES THIS TERM. THE MAIN THING IN
QUESTION IS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. TOUGH FORECAST COMING UP.
LATEST 20Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD INTENSE SFC LOW SE OF NOVA SCOTIA
BOMBING OUT AND FILLING. REGIONAL RADAR, INCLUDING THE LATEST MRMS
SHOWED WESTERN EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD MOVING ONTO THE COAST AND
INTO PORTIONS OF INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE. THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE INCLUDING
THE RAP AND HRRR 3KM WERE DOING WELL W/THE PLACEMENT PER THE LATEST
RADAR ALONG W/THE 12Z REGIONAL CANADIAN GEM. 12Z UA ANALYSIS SHOWED
80-100 KT JET DIVING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW OVER GREAT LAKES WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER TROF TO SHARPEN AS IT SWINGS E. THE
TIMING FOR SNOW FURTHER N HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK AS WELL AS CUTTING
BACK ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BY AN INCH OR TWO. THE GUSTY NNE WINDS
WILL DROP OFF LATER THIS EVENING AS THE INTENSE LOW PULLS AWAY.
LLVL CONVERGENCE IN CONJUNCTION W/A DEVELOPING UPPER FRONT WILL
LEAD TO AN AREA OF SNOW ACROSS THE DOWNEAST THIS EVENING W/SOME
BRIEF HEAVY BANDS. SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING
THE MT. KATAHDIN REGIONAL LATER THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT LIFTS
NORTH. THE SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REST OF NORTHERN MAINE BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. DESPITE LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP FORECAST
TO BE 0.25 TO 0.50 FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, HIGHER SNOW
RATIOS(16-19:1) WILL LEAD TO SOME HIGHER SNOW TOTALS W/THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLUFFY SNOW. SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT A BRIEF
PERIOD DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH WHICH WOULD ENHANCE SNOWFALL FOR A
TIME. OVERALL ATTM, LOOKING FOR HIGHEST TOTALS(4-8 INCHES) ACROSS
DOWNEAST AND EASTERN SECTIONS AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS SUCH AS
PORTIONS OF PISCATAQUIS COUNTY AND MT. KATAHDIN. FURTHER N ACROSS
HOULTON ON UP THROUGH CARIBOU INTO THE ST. JOHN VALLEY, SNOWFALL
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 3-6 INCH RANGE.
SNOW WILL END ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS BY LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON AND LINGER LONGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS IN
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THAT A NNE WIND ACROSS THE ST. JOHN
VALLEY HAS HISTORY OF LEADING TO SOME UPSLOPE AND FORECAST QPF OF
AROUND 0.25", DECIDED TO ADD THE ST. JOHN VALLEY AND NORTHERN
SOMERSET INTO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY W/SNOW FORECAST OF UP TO
4 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL W/20S EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NORTHEAST AS WE GO INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD. MOISTURE WITHIN
THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WEAK SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SMALL AREAS
OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL STAY MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH. ONE LOW WILL
SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER SMALL LOW
SLIDING TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY. THE SMALL LOW ON THURSDAY MAY
TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST POSSIBLY GIVING A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS. OTHERWISE, ONLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AT THE END OF THE
WEEK WILL BRING VERY COLD AIR TO THE REGION. A SMALL LOW WHISKING OUT
TO SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MAY PRODUCE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION, AND POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW ALONG THE COAST. OTHERWISE, MAINLY DRY AND VERY COLD WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A NORTHWEST BREEZE SATURDAY AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY MAY REQUIRE WIND CHILL HEADLINES OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES SOUTH TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON
MONDAY AS A WEAK LOW MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS
CURRENTLY DIFFER WITH THE GFS BRINGING THIS LOW IN MONDAY AND THE
ECMWF BRINGING IT IN LATE TUESDAY. FOR NOW WILL BRING LOW CHANCES
FOR SNOW LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH HUL/PQI/CAR BECOMING MVFR
AFTER 03Z WITH FVE HOLDING ONTO VFR RESTRICTIONS UNTIL 08Z. IFR
SNOW EXPECTED AT HUL AT 03Z, PQI AT 05Z, CAR AT 06Z AND FVE AT
09Z. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT CAR, PQI AND HUL BY 22Z TUE.
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF BGR AND BHB WILL SEE IFR IN SN AND BLSN
THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR.
SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH VARIABLE MID AND LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR ALONG THE COAST IN
A PERIOD OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH VFR TO
OCCASIONALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER, THERE IS A
SMALL POSSIBILITY LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MAY LOWER CONDITIONS TO
MVFR OR BRIEFLY IFR DOWNEAST ON SATURDAY IN LIGHT SNOW IF IT
TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HV ALLOWED GALE WARNING TO EXPIRE FOR INTRACOASTAL
WATERS AT 03Z AND EXTENDED FOR COASTAL WATERS THRU 05Z AS WINDS
RMN BTWN 35-40KTS. HV ISSUED SCA FOR INTRACOASTAL WATERS THRU 18Z
TUESDAY AND AS GALE WARNING EXPIRES FOR RMNG ZONES WL NEED TO
ISSUE SCA THRU THE DAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DROP BACK TO 8-10 FEET BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A SWELL GENERATION IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE ON TUESDAY W/PERIODS OF 10-13 SECONDS.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH SCA LATE THURSDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA ON FRIDAY. AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED
SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY AND FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES MAY NEED
TO BE ISSUED OVER THE WEEKEND AS VERY COLD AIR MOVES OVER THE
WATERS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN EXTRA-TROPICAL STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1-1.5 FT IS EXPECTED LATER
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. HIGH TIDE TONIGHT IS AROUND 11
PM AND AROUND 11 AM ON TUESDAY. TIDES ARE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED SURGE AND THE WAVES OF 10-13 FT COULD LEAD TO SOME
SPLASH-OVER AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE MORE SO ON TUESDAY.
COLLABORATED W/GYX AND DECIDED TO GO W/A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ002-
004>006-010.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ001-
003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MEZ011-015>017-031-032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ029-030.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1142 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE TOWARD
CAPE COD ON TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE REGION. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND EXIT BY FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
1140 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TREND AND TO
INGEST THE 04Z MESONET INTO NEAR TERM GRIDS. WINDS CONTINUE TO
DROP OFF ON THE WATERS AND THE GALE HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A SMALL
CRAFT WITH THIS UPDATE. HIGH TIDE WAS A SHORT TIME AGO WITH AN
ANOMALY OF 1.7 FT. THIS PUT THE TIDE ABOUT 0.5 FT BELOW FLOOD
STAGE. HOWEVER...WITH SEAS BETWEEN 12 AND 14 FT AT THE NEAR SHORE
BUOYS THERE SHOULD BE SOME SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO.
PREV DISC...
UPDATE...
A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW HAS FORMED OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BASICALLY FROM PORTLAND AND POINTS
NORTH AND EAST PER LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. EXPECT THIS BAND TO
CONTINUE IN THIS REGION UNTIL ABOUT 04Z OR 05Z BEFORE WEAKENING
WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE LAST HRRR MODEL. WILL MONITOR SOME OF
THESE AREAS FOR HIGH SNOWFALL TOTALS AND POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL
WARNINGS OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
THE SNOW HAS RETROGRADED ALL THE WAY TO THE VT BORDER WITH SNOW
NOW BEGIN REPORTED IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT PERHAPS CENTRAL SOMERSET
COUNTY.
PREV DISC... HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND LATEST SUITE OF MESOSCALE MODELS. SNOW HAS FINALLY SPREAD INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND CENTRAL MAINE THIS EVENING AS
BANDS OF MOISTURE CONTINUE TO ROTATE WESTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE INTENSE OFFSHORE LOW. INVERTED TROUGH ALSO ACTING AS A
FOCUS FOR THE PRECIP THIS EVENING.
DRY AIR IS DIMINISHING THE PRECIP FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH DEW
POINTS VERY LOW AT THIS HOUR AT THE SURFACE. HAVE ADJUSTED AREA
FOR THE REGION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO BE
FOCUSED OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
PREV DISC...
IMPRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OUT TO SEA CONTINUES TO LOFT
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND BY
TOMORROW. THESE SURFACE REFLECTIONS AS WELL AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVERHEAD WAS PROVIDING ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION.
EARLIER THIS MORNING THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAD A HARD TIME
MOVING NORTHWARD DUE TO EVAPORATION ON THE NORTHERN EDGE. A VERY
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE KEPT ANY SNOW FROM FALLING UNTIL ABOUT 3-4
HOURS AGO. SEVERAL SNOW BANDS HAVE NOW EMERGED ALONG PETTERSSON
FRONTOGENESIS MAXIMA. ONE BAND IN PARTICULAR IS CURRENTLY ROTATING
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE NH/ME COASTLINE.
TO THE NORTH...ZERO OR SUBZERO DEW POINTS PERSIST WITH NORTH
WINDS CONTINUALLY DRAWING DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD. THIS FACT WILL
KEEP SNOW EVAPORATING INTO VIRGA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS THE
NORTH BEFORE TOP DOWN SATURATION OCCURS.
WINDS ARE GUSTING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT BEFORE THEY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT.
THIS COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY FLUFFY SNOW WILL CREATE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. DUE TO THIS REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND TOMORROW MORNING ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED DOWN THE COAST TO
INCLUDE PORTLAND AND ALSO SOUTHWEST AND INLAND TO INCLUDE
ROCKINGHAM COUNTY AND E HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO THE
UPPER TEENS SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO HOVER IN THE 6-8 INCH RANGE IN WARNED
AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS UNDER A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. MOST OF THE SNOW OVER SOUTHERN NH AND SW
MAINE WILL FALL BEFORE 6 AM TUESDAY. AS THE BAND FILLS IN
DOWNEAST... MORE LOCATIONS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED. LOOKING AT THE
FLUFF FACTOR WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS
REQUIRING A WARNING BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE.
TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO UPPER 20S SOUTH.
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY MID MORNING ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
STRONGEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY EAST. RESIDUAL
TROUGHINESS WILL KEEP FLURRIES AROUND WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS LINGERING FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS. TOMORROW NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT. CLOUDS STICK AROUND WITH
NO FRONT TO SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROF SLOWLY PIVOTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WED AND
THU AND EXITS THE REGION ON FRI. WITH THE UPPER TROF THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY SO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIKELY FOR THE MOUNTAINS. ON FRI THE TROF EXITS BUT THEN IT WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT AS A COLD POLAR UPPER
VORTEX DROPS INTO NEW ENGLAND BRINGING BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON WITH GUSTY WINDS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND BITTER
COLD CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STAYED CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND MODELS FOR TEMPS BUT RAISED POPS
FOR WED/THU PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO GRADUALLY LOWERING
CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE TODAY. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND GUST TO 25 OR 30 KT NEAR THE COAST WITH LOWER SPEEDS
INLAND...BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR TUESDAY IN SNOW
SHOWERS.
LONG TERM...UPPER TROF PIVOTS OVER THE REGION THRU THU...WITH
AREAS OF SHSN LIKELY. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHSN...AND THEY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TERMINAL. STRONG COLD FNT
APPROACHES THE AREA FRI WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH TONIGHT. GALES
REMAIN IN PLACE AS OCEAN LOW PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
CONDITIONS DROP BELOW GALES AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH LINGERING SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THE BAYS FOR TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS APPEARS LIKELY THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR WED AND THU WITH SEAS
REMAINING ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS BUT SLOWLY SUBSIDING. A
STRONG COLD FNT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A 1 TO 1.5 FOOT STORM SURGE WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES AND SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL
YORK...ROCKINGHAM...AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENINGS HIGH
TIDE AROUND 11 PM. FOR TOMORROW MORNINGS HIGH TIDE AROUND 11
AM...A HIGHER TIDE REQUIRED A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING. BOTH OF THESE
TIDES MAY LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR SPLASH-OVER ALONG THE
COASTS OF YORK...ROCKINGHAM...AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES. SEE CFWGYX
FOR MORE INFORMATION. WAVE PERIODS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT AROUND 13
SECONDS TOMORROW MORNING...WITH HIGH ENERGY SWELLS STRIKING THE
COASTLINE.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
012>014-018>022-025>028.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-
024.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ003>011-
015.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ001-002.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ012>014.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
ES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1044 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH BITTER COLD TO START THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BANDING BECOMING MORE
AND MORE DISORGANIZED. THE HRRR HAS ACTUALLY DONE PRETTY WELL WITH
BANDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT JUST CANT FULLY BUY IN ON THE
IDEA OF SNOW SHOWERS COMPLETELY DISSIPATING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH THE COMBO OF STILL WIDE OPEN GREAT LAKES AND ARCTIC AIR. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO CURENT ADEVISORIES BUT MAY NEED TO THINK
ABOUT PULLING THEM EARLY IF TRENDS CONTINUE.
DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN TOMORROW BUT WITH A WINDOW OF MEAN
NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW SOME LAKE BANDS WILL CONTINUE NORTH WITH
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE RIDGES. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
LINE WITH NEWER MODELS...AND WITH WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED
OVERNIGHT WIND CHILLS IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES WILL FALL TO 10 TO
15 BELOW ZERO TOWARD DAYBREAK. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ON THE HIGH
SIDE BUT LITTLE CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS NUMBERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL END SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WELL
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH
LATER FRIDAY AS ARCTIC VORTEX DROPS SOUTH. FRONT WILL CROSS
REGION LATER FRIDAY WITH A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. BIGGER STORY WILL BE WIND CHILLS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY 15 TO POSSIBLY 25 BELOW ZERO AS WINDS REMAIN UP AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. HEADLINES FOR WIND
CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH IT IS EARLY TO SORT OUT EFFECTS
OF FRESH SNOWPACK AND JUST HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR
DUE TO CLEARING SKIES...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WINTER WITH
TEMPERATURES IN MANY LOCATIONS BELOW 0F.
SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN BETWEEN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODELS ARE NOT IN AS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM TODAY AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY...WITH SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE NOW BRINGING IN THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST INSTEAD OF
THE WEST-NORTHWEST...WHICH WOULD AFFECT BOTH COVERAGE AND TIMING
OF ANY PRECIPITATION. WINDS MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE SYSTEM...WITH A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING BY
WEDNESDAY. WHILE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE
COLD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH NORMAL VALUES AGAIN
FOR THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SQUALL JUST NORTH OF BVI AND SOUTH OF DUJ WILL CONTINUE ITS
TREK SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING...PER THE LATEST HRRR MODEL. THE
TIMING IS LINING UP WELL WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUN...SO TEMPO
GROUPS WERE ADJUSTED FOR LIFR CONDITIONS AT PIT...AGC...AND BVI.
THE HRRR DOESN`T HAVE THE BAND MAKING IT AS FAR SOUTH AS HLG BUT
WILL TREND TO DETERIORATING VISIBILITY ANYHOW.
ONCE THIS SNOW SQUALL PASSES...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME
IMPROVEMENT...AT LEAST IN VISIBILITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. A SW TO NW WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED TOWARD MORNING...WITH
UPSTREAM OBS BRINGING THE RETURN OF WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KTS. THIS
WILL RESUME THE CHANCE FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS AND
OCCASIONALVISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES. ELSEWHERE...GUIDANCE TRIES TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS BY
MIDDAY...AS A SURFACE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD EASTWARD.
.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER
COLD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING. WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MONDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ041.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
015-074-076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ013-014-
016-020>023-073-075.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ510>514.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
707 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH BITTER
COLD TO START THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE EARLY THIS EVENING TO BUMP DOWN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH AND SLIGHTLY INCREASE AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH WHERE LATEST
PROGS SUGGEST LAKE ENHANCED BANDS PERSIST LONGEST OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST...OR
CURRENT ADVISORIES. AS DRIER AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN THIS
EVENING...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DROP QUICKLY AND MAY BE ABLE TO
PULL ADVISORIES SOUTH OF I80. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..
SNOW SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO INTO NORTHWEST
PA AS SHORTWAVE AND WIND SHIFT MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION. STILL
EXPECT BETTER SNOW ACCUMULATION TO BE THIS EVENING WITH BEST COLD
ADVECTION...AND AS A LAKE ENHANCED BAND ATTEMPTS TO SHIFT SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN TOMORROW BUT WITH A
WINDOW OF MEAN NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW SOME LAKE BANDS WILL
CONTINUE NORTH WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE RIDGES.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN LINE WITH NEWER MODELS...AND WITH WINDS
REMAINING ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WIND CHILLS IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES WILL
FALL TO 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO TOWARD DAYBREAK. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
LIKELY ON THE HIGH SIDE BUT LITTLE CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS NUMBERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL END SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WELL
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH
LATER FRIDAY AS ARCTIC VORTEX DROPS SOUTH. FRONT WILL CROSS
REGION LATER FRIDAY WITH A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. BIGGER STORY WILL BE WIND CHILLS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY 15 TO POSSIBLY 25 BELOW ZERO AS WINDS REMAIN UP AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. HEADLINES FOR WIND
CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH IT IS EARLY TO SORT OUT EFFECTS
OF FRESH SNOWPACK AND JUST HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR
DUE TO CLEARING SKIES...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WINTER WITH
TEMPERATURES IN MANY LOCATIONS BELOW 0F.
SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN BETWEEN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODELS ARE NOT IN AS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM TODAY AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY...WITH SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE NOW BRINGING IN THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST INSTEAD OF
THE WEST-NORTHWEST...WHICH WOULD AFFECT BOTH COVERAGE AND TIMING
OF ANY PRECIPITATION. WINDS MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE SYSTEM...WITH A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING BY
WEDNESDAY. WHILE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE
COLD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH NORMAL VALUES AGAIN
FOR THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SQUALL JUST NORTH OF BVI AND SOUTH OF DUJ WILL CONTINUE ITS
TREK SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING...PER THE LATEST HRRR MODEL. THE
TIMING IS LINING UP WELL WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUN...SO TEMPO
GROUPS WERE ADJUSTED FOR LIFR CONDITIONS AT PIT...AGC...AND BVI.
THE HRRR DOESN`T HAVE THE BAND MAKING IT AS FAR SOUTH AS HLG BUT
WILL TREND TO DETERIORATING VISIBILITY ANYHOW.
ONCE THIS SNOW SQUALL PASSES...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME
IMPROVEMENT...AT LEAST IN VISIBILITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. A SW TO NW WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED TOWARD MORNING...WITH
UPSTREAM OBS BRINGING THE RETURN OF WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KTS. THIS
WILL RESUME THE CHANCE FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS AND
OCCASIONALVISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES. ELSEWHERE...GUIDANCE TRIES TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS BY
MIDDAY...AS A SURFACE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD EASTWARD.
.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER
COLD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING. WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MONDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ041.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
015-074-076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ013-014-
016-020>023-073-075.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ510>514.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
527 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER INTO LATE WEEK WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
530PM UPDATE...UPDATED POPS AND SNOW OVERNIGHT...FOCUSING MAINLY
ON THE AREA OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN OHIO. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ROTATING AROUND
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW...HAS PROVIDED ENOUGH LIFT TO GET THE
ACTIVITY GOING. THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF SHEAR IN THE LAYER AND THE
REAL COLD AIR IS STILL WELL TO THE WEST...HOWEVER EXPECT TO SEE AN
AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. HIGHEST POPS AND SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE I-80 COUNTIES.
HAVE ALSO KEPT THE HIGH POPS IN THE RIDGE COUNTIES AS A STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW WILL CREATE A GOOD UPSLOPE SETUP AND COLDER AIR
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL RUN DIRECTLY INTO THE
RIDGE TOPS. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED WITH A BLEND
OF THE LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BAND OF BETTER RETURNS ON RADAR NOW PUSHING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN RIDGES AND BEGINNING TO WANE. ELSEWHERE PATCHY LIGHT SNOW
WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF UNTIL A SHORTWAVE SLIDING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.
NARROW BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE NOW INTO
NORTHEAST OHIO AND WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...AS STILL
SHOWN BY LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS. WHILE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST...ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR AT
LEAST AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.
BEHIND THIS COLD ADVECTION WILL INCREASE WITH ENOUGH LAKE ENHANCED
FLOW FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
INTO THE RIDGES AND TOWARD THE I-80 CORRIDOR. NO CHANGES TO
CURRENT ADVISORIES. TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF MODEL MOS.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION. MEAN FLOW WILL REMAIN WESTERLY BUT WILL WAVER AT
TIMES...KEEPING BEST LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL WELL NORTH BUT WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT. SNOWFALL LOOKS TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND NO
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. COLDER AIR WILL AGAIN BE WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A MINIMAL RECOVERY FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN COLD ADVECTION INTO THURSDAY
UNTIL A SMALL BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY PERIOD
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE AS EASTERN
TROUGH CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FRIDAY WILL
DELIVER EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ALLOWED A MODEL BLEND TO BE
USED.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE ARCTIC AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. WILL CONTINUE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST DROPPING NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS TO ZERO OR BELOW.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF DRY PERIOD ON SUNDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW EXCEPT FOR SOME RAIN
POSSIBLY MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY BEFORE NORTHWEST FLOW ONCE AGAIN ALLOWS FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS IT SEEMS
VISIBILITIES ARE BEING DETERMINED MORE BY FOG/MIST THAN BY SNOW
SHOWER INTENSITY. GENERAL TREND IS THAT MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS ARE MOVING EAST OF MOST TERMINALS...BUT VISIBILITIES
REMAIN IFR. HAVE GONE SOMEWHAT PESSIMISTIC WITH THE TAFS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...KEEPING KPIT AND TERMINALS FARTHER SOUTH IN
IFR VISIBILITIES INTO THE EVENING. THINK THERE WILL BE A GENERAL
IMPROVING TREND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS INDICATE ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW
COULD PUSH THROUGH AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY...WHICH MIGHT BRING
ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF IFR CONDITIONS TO ALL SITES. DID NOT HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD THIS SNOW INTO THE TAFS AS OF THE 18Z
TAFS. AS WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY...FETCH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO PICK UP AT FKL/DUJ OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD BRING SNOW TOWARDS OTHER TERMINALS BY
LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER COLD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE DRY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049-
050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021-
029-031-073-075.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
WVZ510>514.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
309 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER INTO LATE WEEK WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BAND OF BETTER RETURNS ON RADAR NOW PUSHING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN RIDGES AND BEGINNING TO WANE. ELSEWHERE PATCHY LIGHT
SNOW WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF UNTIL A SHORTWAVE SLIDING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.
NARROW BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE NOW INTO
NORTHEAST OHIO AND WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...AS STILL
SHOWN BY LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS. WHILE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST...ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR AT
LEAST AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.
BEHIND THIS COLD ADVECTION WILL INCREASE WITH ENOUGH LAKE ENHANCED
FLOW FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
INTO THE RIDGES AND TOWARD THE I-80 CORRIDOR. NO CHANGES TO
CURRENT ADVISORIES. TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF MODEL MOS.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION. MEAN FLOW WILL REMAIN WESTERLY BUT WILL WAVER AT
TIMES...KEEPING BEST LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL WELL NORTH BUT WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT. SNOWFALL LOOKS TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND NO
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. COLDER AIR WILL AGAIN BE WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A MINIMAL RECOVERY FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN COLD ADVECTION INTO THURSDAY
UNTIL A SMALL BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY PERIOD
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE AS EASTERN
TROUGH CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FRIDAY WILL
DELIVER EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ALLOWED A MODEL BLEND TO BE
USED.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE ARCTIC AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. WILL CONTINUE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST DROPPING NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS TO ZERO OR BELOW.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF DRY PERIOD ON SUNDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW EXCEPT FOR SOME RAIN
POSSIBLY MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY BEFORE NORTHWEST FLOW ONCE AGAIN ALLOWS FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS IT SEEMS
VISIBILITIES ARE BEING DETERMINED MORE BY FOG/MIST THAN BY SNOW
SHOWER INTENSITY. GENERAL TREND IS THAT MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS ARE MOVING EAST OF MOST TERMINALS...BUT VISIBILITIES
REMAIN IFR. HAVE GONE SOMEWHAT PESSIMISTIC WITH THE TAFS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...KEEPING KPIT AND TERMINALS FARTHER SOUTH IN
IFR VISIBILITIES INTO THE EVENING. THINK THERE WILL BE A GENERAL
IMPROVING TREND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS INDICATE ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW
COULD PUSH THROUGH AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY...WHICH MIGHT BRING
ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF IFR CONDITIONS TO ALL SITES. DID NOT HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD THIS SNOW INTO THE TAFS AS OF THE 18Z
TAFS. AS WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY...FETCH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO PICK UP AT FKL/DUJ OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD BRING SNOW TOWARDS OTHER TERMINALS BY
LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER COLD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE DRY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049-
050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021-
029-031-073-075.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
WVZ510>514.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
110 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BAND OF BETTER RETURNS ON RADAR NOW PUSHING NORTHEAST AND EAST OF
KPIT AND BEGINNING TO WANE. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONTINUE
UNDER THIS AREA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE PATCHY LIGHT
SNOW WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF UNTIL A SHORTWAVE SLIDING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.
NARROW BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE NOW EXITING LAKE
ERIE AND WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS
SHOWN BY LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS. WHILE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT
LEAVES THE LAKE...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO
ACCOUNT FOR AT LEAST AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THIS COLD ADVECTION WILL INCREASE WITH
ENOUGH LAKE ENHANCED FLOW FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY INTO THE RIDGES. NO CHANGES TO ADVISORIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
H500 TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST EARLY ON WEDNESDAY AS CLOSED LOW OPENS
UP. NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE DURING THE DAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
COLD ADVECTION. INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP A BIT AS COMPARED TO TODAY
AND OVERALL MOISTURE LEVEL IS LOWER...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE IS
PRESENT IN DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE TO PROMOTE ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR TWO...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES.
COLD ADVECTION SLOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOISTURE BECOMES MORE
SHALLOW WITH TIME...WHICH WILL SLOW ACCUMULATION A BIT. ANOTHER
INCH OR SO IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...LESS TO THE
WEST. H850 THERMAL TROUGH ARRIVES AND CROSSES ON THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL HELP TO DIMINISH COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. ONLY A FEW SHSN
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ALONG THE RIDGES AND NORTH OF I-80 BY
EVENING...WITH A DRY WINDOW EXPECTED AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP FURTHER BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE HERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS...LASTING INTO SATURDAY. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGE FOR NOW. THE MAIN STORY HERE WILL BE THE POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO
FALL TO -25C OR EVEN A BIT COLDER BY 00Z SUNDAY. BELOW ZERO MIN
TEMPS ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY IF
SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE.
A DRY AND COLD SUNDAY IS EXPECTED AS THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY AS THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH LOOSENS ITS GRIP...BUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RETURN AS WELL WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WAS USED AS A BASIS FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS IT SEEMS
VISIBILITIES ARE BEING DETERMINED MORE BY FOG/MIST THAN BY SNOW
SHOWER INTENSITY. GENERAL TREND IS THAT MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS ARE MOVING EAST OF MOST TERMINALS...BUT VISIBILITIES
REMAIN IFR. HAVE GONE SOMEWHAT PESSIMISTIC WITH THE TAFS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...KEEPING KPIT AND TERMINALS FARTHER SOUTH IN
IFR VISIBILITIES INTO THE EVENING. THINK THERE WILL BE A GENERAL
IMPROVING TREND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS INDICATE ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW
COULD PUSH THROUGH AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY...WHICH MIGHT BRING
ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF IFR CONDITIONS TO ALL SITES. DID NOT HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD THIS SNOW INTO THE TAFS AS OF THE 18Z
TAFS. AS WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY...FETCH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO PICK UP AT FKL/DUJ OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD BRING SNOW TOWARDS OTHER TERMINALS BY
LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER COLD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049-
050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021-
029-031-073-075.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
WVZ510>514.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
809 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW EXPANDING. AXIS
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS DIGGING IN ACROSS WESTERN
OHIO...DEEPENING A SECONDARY MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER. THE RESULTANT DEFORMATION ZONE GAVE RISE TO A MODERATE
SNOW BAND THAT STRETCHED WEST TO EAST FROM WILMINGTON OH TO NEAR
CLARKSBURG WV. THIS FORCING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY PIVOT AROUND
THE MID-LEVEL LOW...SPREADING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS SHOULD IMPACT THE REMAINING COMMUTE FOR THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ADVISED AREAS...WITH LESS OF AN IMPACT
NEAR THE PITTSBURGH METRO.
HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FAIRLY SHARP GRADIENT ALONG
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW TODAY. LATEST HRRR RUN HAS COME MORE
IN LINE WITH THE WRF ARW/NMM...KEEPING THE HEAVIEST SNOW JUST
SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH BUT STILL IMPACTING SOUTHERN ALLEGHENY COUNTY.
HAVE ADJUSTED SNOW AMOUNTS ACCORDINGLY BY TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT
FROM NEAR PITTSBURGH TO NEAR ZANESVILLE. WHILE THIS MEANS A
FURTHER REDUCTION IN THE FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE ADVISORY COUNTIES...OPTED TO STAND PAT WITH THE
CURRENT HEADLINES.
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH AND INTO THE RIDGES SHOULD SEE
SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE LIFT WEAKENS AND DEPARTS. STILL
EXPECTING 4 TO 6 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION FROM NEAR THE MASON-DIXON
LINE AND SOUTH. SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS TONIGHT...BUT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE RIDGE COUNTIES AS
THE FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
DESCENDS UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THEIR DOWNWARD TREND AS HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
TODAY...AND LOWS WILL DROP TO NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT.
TAX
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
H500 TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST EARLY ON WEDNESDAY AS CLOSED LOW OPENS
UP. NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE DURING THE DAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
COLD ADVECTION. INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP A BIT AS COMPARED TO TODAY
AND OVERALL MOISTURE LEVEL IS LOWER...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE IS
PRESENT IN DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE TO PROMOTE ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR TWO...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES.
COLD ADVECTION SLOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOISTURE BECOMES MORE
SHALLOW WITH TIME...WHICH WILL SLOW ACCUMULATION A BIT. ANOTHER
INCH OR SO IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...LESS TO THE
WEST. H850 THERMAL TROUGH ARRIVES AND CROSSES ON THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL HELP TO DIMINISH COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. ONLY A FEW SHSN
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ALONG THE RIDGES AND NORTH OF I-80 BY
EVENING...WITH A DRY WINDOW EXPECTED AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP FURTHER BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE HERE.
CL
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...LASTING INTO SATURDAY. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR
NOW. THE MAIN STORY HERE WILL BE THE POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO FALL TO -25C
OR EVEN A BIT COLDER BY 00Z SUNDAY. BELOW ZERO MIN TEMPS ARE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY IF SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
DECOUPLE.
A DRY AND COLD SUNDAY IS EXPECTED AS THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY AS THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH LOOSENS ITS GRIP...BUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RETURN AS WELL WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WAS USED AS A BASIS FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
CL
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THIS MORNING AS SPATIAL
COVERAGE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EXPANDS. SO FAR THIS MORNING IT
APPEARS THAT VISIBILITIES LESS THAN A MILE ARE MORE A RESULT OF
FOG THAN A RESULT OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECTING AT LEAST
MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE DAY AS SNOW LIFTS NORTHWARD
UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER. GREATEST IMPACTS SHOULD
BE TO THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF LBE/MGW/AGC WITH SNOW LASTING INTO
THE EVENING. GUIDANCE HINTING AT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST.
STILL...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SO
RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL TO BE EXPECTED. LIGHT SURFACE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. TAX
.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER COLD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049-
050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021-
029-031-073-075.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
WVZ510>514.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
637 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW EXPANDING. AXIS
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS DIGGING IN ACROSS WESTERN
OHIO...DEEPENING A SECONDARY MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER. THE RESULTANT DEFORMATION ZONE GAVE RISE TO A MODERATE
SNOW BAND THAT STRETCHED WEST TO EAST FROM WILMINGTON OH TO NEAR
CLARKSBURG WV. THIS FORCING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY PIVOT AROUND
THE MID-LEVEL LOW...SPREADING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS SHOULD IMPACT THE REMAINING COMMUTE FOR THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ADVISED AREAS...WITH LESS OF AN IMPACT
NEAR THE PITTSBURGH METRO.
HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FAIRLY SHARP GRADIENT ALONG
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW TODAY. LATEST HRRR RUN HAS COME MORE
IN LINE WITH THE WRF ARW/NMM...KEEPING THE HEAVIEST SNOW JUST
SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH BUT STILL IMPACTING SOUTHERN ALLEGHENY COUNTY.
HAVE ADJUSTED SNOW AMOUNTS ACCORDINGLY BY TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT
FROM NEAR PITTSBURGH TO NEAR ZANESVILLE. WHILE THIS MEANS A
FURTHER REDUCTION IN THE FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE ADVISORY COUNTIES...OPTED TO STAND PAT WITH THE
CURRENT HEADLINES.
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH AND INTO THE RIDGES SHOULD SEE
SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE LIFT WEAKENS AND DEPARTS. STILL
EXPECTING 4 TO 6 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION FROM NEAR THE MASON-DIXON
LINE AND SOUTH. SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS TONIGHT...BUT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE RIDGE COUNTIES AS
THE FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
DESCENDS UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THEIR DOWNWARD TREND AS HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
TODAY...AND LOWS WILL DROP TO NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT.
TAX
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
H500 TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST EARLY ON WEDNESDAY AS CLOSED LOW OPENS
UP. NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE DURING THE DAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
COLD ADVECTION. INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP A BIT AS COMPARED TO TODAY
AND OVERALL MOISTURE LEVEL IS LOWER...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE IS
PRESENT IN DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE TO PROMOTE ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR TWO...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES.
COLD ADVECTION SLOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOISTURE BECOMES MORE
SHALLOW WITH TIME...WHICH WILL SLOW ACCUMULATION A BIT. ANOTHER
INCH OR SO IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...LESS TO THE
WEST. H850 THERMAL TROUGH ARRIVES AND CROSSES ON THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL HELP TO DIMINISH COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. ONLY A FEW SHSN
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ALONG THE RIDGES AND NORTH OF I-80 BY
EVENING...WITH A DRY WINDOW EXPECTED AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP FURTHER BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE HERE.
CL
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...LASTING INTO SATURDAY. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR
NOW. THE MAIN STORY HERE WILL BE THE POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO FALL TO -25C
OR EVEN A BIT COLDER BY 00Z SUNDAY. BELOW ZERO MIN TEMPS ARE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY IF SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
DECOUPLE.
A DRY AND COLD SUNDAY IS EXPECTED AS THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY AS THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH LOOSENS ITS GRIP...BUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RETURN AS WELL WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WAS USED AS A BASIS FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
CL
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THIS MORNING AS SPATIAL
COVERAGE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EXPANDS. EXPECTING AT LEAST
MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE DAY AS SNOW LIFTS NORTHWARD
UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER. GREATEST IMPACTS SHOULD BE
TO THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF LBE/MGW/AGC WITH SNOW LASTING INTO
THE EVENING. GUIDANCE HINTING AT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST.
STILL...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SO
RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL TO BE EXPECTED. LIGHT SURFACE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT.
TAX
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER COLD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049-
050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021-
029-031-073-075.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
WVZ510>514.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
422 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SPATIAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPANDING IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. ONE
SPOKE OF THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SWINGING THROUGH WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT SNOW THAT RESIDES
NORTH OF I-70. ANOTHER AXIS OF THE LOW IS DIGGING IN ACROSS
WESTERN OHIO...DEEPENING A SECONDARY MID-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER. THE RESULTANT DEFORMATION ZONE HAS GIVEN RISE TO A MODERATE
SNOW BAND THAT STRETCHES WEST TO EAST FROM WILMINGTON OH TO NEAR
CLARKSBURG WV. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY PIVOT AROUND
THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...SPREADING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS SHOULD IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE
FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ADVISED AREAS...WITH LESS OF AN
IMPACT NEAR THE PITTSBURGH METRO.
HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FAIRLY SHARP GRADIENT ALONG
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW TODAY. LATEST HRRR RUN HAS COME MORE
IN LINE WITH THE WRF ARW/NMM...KEEPING THE HEAVIEST SNOW JUST
SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH BUT STILL IMPACTING SOUTHERN ALLEGHENY COUNTY.
HAVE ADJUSTED SNOW AMOUNTS ACCORDINGLY BY TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT
FROM NEAR PITTSBURGH TO NEAR ZANESVILLE. WHILE THIS MEANS A
FURTHER REDUCTION IN THE FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE ADVISORY COUNTIES...OPTED TO STAND PAT WITH THE
CURRENT HEADLINES.
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH AND INTO THE RIDGES SHOULD SEE
SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE LIFT WEAKENS AND DEPARTS. STILL
EXPECTING 4 TO 6 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION FROM NEAR THE MASON-DIXON
LINE AND SOUTH. SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS TONIGHT...BUT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE RIDGE COUNTIES AS
THE FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
DESCENDS UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THEIR DOWNWARD TREND AS HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
TODAY...AND LOWS WILL DROP TO NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT. TAX
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
H500 TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST EARLY ON WEDNESDAY AS CLOSED LOW OPENS
UP. NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE DURING THE DAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
COLD ADVECTION. INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP A BIT AS COMPARED TO TODAY
AND OVERALL MOISTURE LEVEL IS LOWER...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE IS
PRESENT IN DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE TO PROMOTE ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR TWO...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES.
COLD ADVECTION SLOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOISTURE BECOMES MORE
SHALLOW WITH TIME...WHICH WILL SLOW ACCUMULATION A BIT. ANOTHER
INCH OR SO IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...LESS TO THE
WEST. H850 THERMAL TROUGH ARRIVES AND CROSSES ON THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL HELP TO DIMINISH COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. ONLY A FEW SHSN
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ALONG THE RIDGES AND NORTH OF I-80 BY
EVENING...WITH A DRY WINDOW EXPECTED AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP FURTHER BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE HERE.
CL
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...LASTING INTO SATURDAY. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR
NOW. THE MAIN STORY HERE WILL BE THE POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO FALL TO -25C
OR EVEN A BIT COLDER BY 00Z SUNDAY. BELOW ZERO MIN TEMPS ARE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY IF SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
DECOUPLE.
A DRY AND COLD SUNDAY IS EXPECTED AS THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY AS THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH LOOSENS ITS GRIP...BUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RETURN AS WELL WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WAS USED AS A BASIS FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
CL
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THIS MORNING AS SPATIAL
COVERAGE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EXPANDS. EXPECTING AT LEAST
MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE DAY AS SNOW LIFTS NORTHWARD
UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER. GREATEST IMPACTS SHOULD BE
TO THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF LBE/MGW/AGC WITH SNOW LASTING INTO
THE EVENING. GUIDANCE HINTING AT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST.
STILL...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SO
RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL TO BE EXPECTED. LIGHT SURFACE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT.
TAX
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER COLD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049-
050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021-
029-031-073-075.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
WVZ510>514.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
645 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016
.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016
HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND COLD.
NORTHERN MI REMAINS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN NEW ENGLAND...AND HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING SE-WARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA. TROFFING REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE LAKES REGION...PRODUCED IN PART BY THE GREAT
LAKES THEMSELVES. A SLIGHT TENDENCY FOR THIS TROFFING TO RELAX
TONIGHT AS RIDGING TO OUR WEST BECOMES STRONGER. THAT WILL BACK
1000-850MB WINDS EVER SO SLIGHTLY...TO A BORDERLINE NW/NNW BY
MIDNIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES IN NW LOWER...AND VERY SMALL
PORTIONS OF NE LOWER (ROGERS TO APN) AND EASTERN UPPER (FAR
WESTERN MACK). ONGOING ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT
DISRUPTED BY DIURNAL HEATING (SUCH AS IT IS). SNOW TRENDS ARE THE
MAIN CONCERN.
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING SHOW ALLOW FOR SOME REORGANIZATION
TOWARD LATE EVENING...THOUGH A CONTINUED DEEPLY DRY AIRMASS WILL
KEEP THINGS FROM GETTING INSANELY OUT OF LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN LINES
UP NICELY WITH RECENT RADAR/OB TRENDS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING. IN PARTICULAR...DOMINANT BANDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO SET
UP EITHER SIDE OF TVC. LOCALIZED 4-6 INCH ACCUMS AGAIN LIKELY...
PERHAPS EVEN HIGHER. PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES RELAX A BIT TONIGHT.
COMBINED WITH LOSS OF HEATING/MIXING...WINDS EVERYWHERE BUT
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WILL TREND DOWNWARD. SO WILL SEE LESS
IN THE WAY OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.
WITH THE ABOVE TRENDS...HEALTHY SNOW AMOUNTS BUT LESS WIND/BLSN...
WILL REPLACE THE ONGOING WARNINGS WITH ADVISORIES. THE CURRENT
ADVISORY COUNTIES WILL REMAIN AS SUCH. ALL ADVISORIES WILL RUN THRU
NOON THURSDAY.
ELSEWHERE...SHSN WILL CONTINUE TO PESTER ROGERS CITY/APN AREA...WITH
1-3 INCH ACCUMS THERE. THE SLIGHT BACKING TO THE WINDS WILL PUSH
SHSN INTO FAR WESTERN CHIP AS WELL AS MACK...WITH 1-3 INCH ACCUMS
ALSO REASONABLE THERE. OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELTS...CURRENT CLOUD
COVER HAS A STRONG DIURNAL COMPONENT...AND ANTICIPATE AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING JUST EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR IN BOTH PENINSULAS.
MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10F IN NW LOWER NEAR LAKE
MI...TO NEARLY -10F AT THE SAULT. HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS
WHERE PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: FULL-LATITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH DOMINATES
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND UP INTO ALASKA OPENING THE DOOR FOR ARCTIC AIR TO PLUNGE
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. PATTERN BREAKS NEXT WEEK WITH RISING
HEIGHTS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW ALONG THE NEXT COLD FRONT FRIDAY WITH
MORE SNOW SHOWERS/BLOWING SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW WIND CHILLS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THURSDAY...THERMAL TROUGH BE EAST OF MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY
MORNING...AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WEAKENS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL DECREASE AS MORE SUBSIDENCE WORKS
INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. SNOW SHOWERS TO START THE DAY WEST OF I-75
AND POSSIBLY FAR NORTHEAST LOWER /PRESQUE ISLE-ALPENA/. WINDS
GRADUALLY BACK THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH THE CHANGING WIND DIRECTION
LIKELY FANNING OUT THE SNOW SHOWERS AND ALSO BRINGING THEM EASTWARD
TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR. WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS MOVE BACK INTO CHIPPEWA COUNTY AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE
WESTERLY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY LAKE VORTEX DEVELOPMENT GIVEN
THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...WHICH COULD DISRUPT THE BANDING.
A FEW ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS.
LOW LEVEL WINDS NEARLY DUE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL DICTATE
THE ORIENTATION OF THE SNOW BANDS...FOCUSING ON THE M-32 CORRIDOR.
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS FRIDAY. CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY RAISES
SOME CONCERNS ABOUT SNOWFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CHIPPEWA
COUNTY AS ADDED LOW LEVEL FORCING PUSHES INVERSION HEIGHTS BACK UP
TOWARD 700MB. THIS COULD RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY IF THIS BAND IS PERSISTENT OVER A SEVERAL
HOUR PERIOD.
FRIDAY...OUR SECONDARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE WINTER. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW WITH
THIS BOUNDARY AS IT SAGS SOUTHWARD....WITH A NICE AXIS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL DIV-Q. IF THE BAND REMAINS TRANSITORY...THEN
GENERALLY AN INCH OR TWO SNOW FOR MOST AREAS LOOKS GOOD...WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLY BOOSTING TOTALS IN
SOME AREAS. THIS BURST OF SNOW COULD HAVE SOME TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS
/ALBEIT BRIEFLY/ AND IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. BEHIND THE
FRONT...EXPECT NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT TO SET UP AS THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE EVENT ADVECTS ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES /850MB
TEMPERATURES BELOW -25C BY FRIDAY EVENING/. TEMPERATURES LIKELY
FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH A BRISK
NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND DEVELOPING...ANTICIPATING WIND CHILLS TO FALL
BELOW ZERO DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO A 330-
340 DEGREE ORIENTATION. SET UP SEEMS FAVORABLE FOR A DOMINANT TWO-
LAKE BAND /SIMILAR TO OUR CURRENT SET-UP OF LAKE EFFECT/ THAT
IMPACTS AN AREA ALONG/WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR. BUT BY THIS TIME
850MB TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -25C WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON SNOWFLAKE
GROWTH PROCESSES RESULTING IN MUCH SMALLER FLAKE SIZES THAT WILL NOT
ACCUMULATE AS MUCH. SMALL FLAKES ARE ALSO MORE LIKELY TO BLOW AROUND
WITH GUSTY WINDS...WHICH CAN CREATE SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY ISSUES.
SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BELOW ZERO IN MANY AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT /OUTSIDE OF COASTAL
AREAS/...WITH READINGS OF -20 DEGF POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT SEE SOME
CLEARING.
SATURDAY...ONE WORD TO DESCRIBE TEMPERATURES...BRUTAL. COLDEST AIR
OF THE WINTER IMPACTING MICHIGAN WITH ARCTIC HIGH GRADUALLY BUILDING
INTO THE REGION. SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS IN MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH A FEW
LOCATIONS MAY NOT REACH ZERO. WIND CHILL READINGS OF -15 TO -25
DEGREES DURING THE MORNING...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY PUT US CLOSE TO
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING IN NORTHWEST
FLOW AREAS...WITH VERY SMALL FLAKE SIZE BUT POTENTIALLY POOR
VISIBILITY IN SOME LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016
THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN CONSENSUS OF SEVERAL AREAS OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A COUPLE SURFACE LOWS PRODUCING CHANCES OF
SNOW THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
HAVING THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD WARM ADVECTION SNOW ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MAY ALSO SEE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ON THE STRONG SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM ALONG THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINES...ESPECIALLY THE US-2 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN
UPPER. THE WINDS VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SYSTEM BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER AIR AND A NARROW RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL VERY LIKELY AT LEAST CREATE
LAKE CLOUDS...IF NOT SQUEEZE SOME LIGHT SNOW OUT AT TIMES TUESDAY.
MODELS THEN HINT AT ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MID-WEEK.
LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL DROP TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO WITH
WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH
INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO SUNDAY AND MODERATE TO THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016
NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE FLOW BACKING WESTERLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TVC LOOKS TO BE THE MOST IMPACTED BY SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH MBL SEEING SOME ACTIVITY. APN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN AND OUT OF ACTIVITY WHILE PLN LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
BETWEEN BANDS...BUT WITH THE BACKING FLOW SOME ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT
THE AIRPORT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE PRIMARILY LOW
END VFR...BUT FALL TO MVFR AT TIMES IN SNOW SHOWERS. DEPENDING
UPON WHERE THE DOMINANT BAND SETS UP...TVC MAY FALL TO LIFR LATER
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SLACKEN JUST A BIT TONIGHT BUT BECOME A LITTLE
GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016
NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES
FROM CENTRAL CANADA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE SET TO EXPIRE
EARLY THU MORNING...AND THAT HOLD FOR A LITTLE WHILE. HOWEVER...W
TO NW WINDS WILL INCREASE THU NIGHT...AND ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES
COULD WELL BE NEEDED THEN.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ019>021-
025>027-031>033.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...JZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1149 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A
PROMINENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIGE OVER THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SE CONUS. AT THE
SFC...STRONG NRLY FLOW PREVAILED THROUGH THE WRN LAKES BTWN A RIDGE
OVER THE PLAINS AND A LOW NEAR THE SRN END OF LAKE HURON. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -22C AND
THE PRESENCE OF ABUNDANTY 850-500 MB MOISTURE SUPPORTED MODERATE TO
HEAVY LES INTO THE WRN CWA NEAR IWD WHERE THE LOW LEVEL CONV WAS
STRONGEST. LES ALSO CONTINUED OVER THE REST OF NRN UPPER MI BUT WAS
NOT AS HEAVY.
TODAY...THE MODELS WERE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS DROPPING TO AROUND 4K FT. SO...WITH DIMINISHING
SNOWFALL RATES EXPECTED...THE LES WARNING/ADVISORIES EXPIRATION OF
21Z LOOKS ON TRACK AFTER ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES.
HOWEVER...LIGHTER LES WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. EVEN WITH LESS
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONV INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI...EXPECT LES WILL
INCREASE TODAY WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE.
IN ADDITION...THE GUSTY N WINDS ALONG THE LAKE WILL PRODUCE
CONSIDERABLE BLSN. AN ADVY WAS ISSUED FOR MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTIES
WHICH WILL EXTEND INTO WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NORMAL WITH HIGHS
FROM 10 TO 15 OVER THE WEST HALF TO THE LOW 20S AND EAST.
TONIGHT...A WEAK SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE NRN LAKES FROM NW ONTARIO
ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL HELP BOOST SNOWFALL
RATES...MAINLY OVER THE CNTRL AREAS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LONGER
FETCHAND WHERE UPSTREAM LOW LEVEL DRYING WILL HAVE LESS INFLUENCE.
LAND BREEZES AND SLIGHTLY VEERING WINDS MAY HELP INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONV INTO EASTERN MARQUETTE AND WRN ALGER COUNTIES WHERE ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THE DGZ
LOWERING CLOSER TO THE SFC AND GREATER DRYING...EXPECT MAINLY 1 TO 4
INCH AMOUNTS OVER THE WEST. EVEN WITH THE VERY COLD AIRMASS OVER THE
AREA...THE LAKE INFLUENCE WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 0 TO 5F RANGE WEST
AND 5 TO 10 EAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE BROAD 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WEST.
THE SHORTWAVE THAT SLID THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P. WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SLIDING
EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO EXIT TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF
THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER.
THE MORE FOCUSED SNOW WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN U.P. AS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LINGER THERE THE LONGEST AND THAT AREA WILL BE IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SHORTWAVE AXIS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
CHILLY AIR AT 850MB IN THE -20C TO -23C RANGE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THE MOISTURE AND
CONVECTIVE LAYER WERE DEEPER IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. INVERSION HEIGHTS
WILL BE AROUND 6-8KFT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...HOWEVER...THE BETTER MOISTURE IS ONLY PROGGED TO BE IN
PLACE THROUGH ABOUT 5-6KFT. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL CANADA. WILL STILL
SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH DIMINISHED RATE...FOR
MORE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EAST WITH THE INCREASED FETCH.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER
TO THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE
INFLECTION POINT BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE TO THE
WEST. THE GFS/EC ARE SHOWING A 500MB CLOSED LOW SLIDING ACROSS
HUDSON BAY THURSDAY NIGHT TO CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THIS HAPPENS...EXPECT A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TO ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA WITH INCREASED MOISTURE WRAPPING THROUGH THE EAST
HALF OF THE CWA. THE MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO SLIDE
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL FOR NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED AREAS.
AGAIN...WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE SLIDING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE
U.P. PLACED THE LIKELY POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THOSE AREAS NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR MOVING IN WILL PRESS THE
FAVORED DGZ DOWN TO THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IT WILL
BE FAIRLY SHALLOW TOO. THIS WOULD KEEP SNOWFLAKE SIZE FAIRLY SMALL
AND SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS A BIT LOWER. THE THINGS HINTING TOWARD
HEAVIER SNOWFALL INTENSITY/ MORE PERSISTENT SNOW OVER THE EAST IS
THE INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO JUMP UP TO NEAR 8KFT OR SO ALONG
WITH INCREASED FORCING IN THAT LAYER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GFS AND EC ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT ON
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SLIDING INTO THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE MOVING FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EASTWARD INTO THE CWA. THIS...ALONG WITH DRIER AIR AND THE SLOW
APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...SHOULD HELP TO DIMINISH THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THIS WORKS OUT
AND THE SURFACE RIDGE IS OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF SUBSTANTIALLY
ACROSS THE CWA WITH LOWS POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS DIVERGE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS
THE GFS TRIES TO BRING A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE EC KEEPS A
SURFACE RIDGE...DRIER AIR AND UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGE IN THE AREA
THROUGH MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THIS POINT WENT WITH A
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS GIVING ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
A CYCLONIC NNW FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL PERSIST THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
WITH DEEP MOISTURE ALSO LINGERING...EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO
PREDOMINATE AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN LAKE HURON WILL EXIT THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED N WINDS TO 20
TO 30KNOTS WITH AND GALES TO 35KTS OVER N CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
E HALF. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH THE HEAVIEST FREEZING
SPRAY INTO WED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN
ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE N PLAINS TUESDAY SLOWLY GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA
OF STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION BY THE START OF THE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ006.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ001-003.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ002-009.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ005.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY
FOR LSZ162-263>266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
816 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A
PROMINENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIGE OVER THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SE CONUS. AT THE
SFC...STRONG NRLY FLOW PREVAILED THROUGH THE WRN LAKES BTWN A RIDGE
OVER THE PLAINS AND A LOW NEAR THE SRN END OF LAKE HURON. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -22C AND
THE PRESENCE OF ABUNDANTY 850-500 MB MOISTURE SUPPORTED MODERATE TO
HEAVY LES INTO THE WRN CWA NEAR IWD WHERE THE LOW LEVEL CONV WAS
STRONGEST. LES ALSO CONTINUED OVER THE REST OF NRN UPPER MI BUT WAS
NOT AS HEAVY.
TODAY...THE MODELS WERE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS DROPPING TO AROUND 4K FT. SO...WITH DIMINISHING
SNOWFALL RATES EXPECTED...THE LES WARNING/ADVISORIES EXPIRATION OF
21Z LOOKS ON TRACK AFTER ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES.
HOWEVER...LIGHTER LES WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. EVEN WITH LESS
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONV INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI...EXPECT LES WILL
INCREASE TODAY WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE.
IN ADDITION...THE GUSTY N WINDS ALONG THE LAKE WILL PRODUCE
CONSIDERABLE BLSN. AN ADVY WAS ISSUED FOR MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTIES
WHICH WILL EXTEND INTO WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NORMAL WITH HIGHS
FROM 10 TO 15 OVER THE WEST HALF TO THE LOW 20S AND EAST.
TONIGHT...A WEAK SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE NRN LAKES FROM NW ONTARIO
ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL HELP BOOST SNOWFALL
RATES...MAINLY OVER THE CNTRL AREAS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LONGER
FETCHAND WHERE UPSTREAM LOW LEVEL DRYING WILL HAVE LESS INFLUENCE.
LAND BREEZES AND SLIGHTLY VEERING WINDS MAY HELP INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONV INTO EASTERN MARQUETTE AND WRN ALGER COUNTIES WHERE ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THE DGZ
LOWERING CLOSER TO THE SFC AND GREATER DRYING...EXPECT MAINLY 1 TO 4
INCH AMOUNTS OVER THE WEST. EVEN WITH THE VERY COLD AIRMASS OVER THE
AREA...THE LAKE INFLUENCE WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 0 TO 5F RANGE WEST
AND 5 TO 10 EAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE BROAD 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WEST.
THE SHORTWAVE THAT SLID THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P. WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SLIDING
EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO EXIT TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF
THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER.
THE MORE FOCUSED SNOW WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN U.P. AS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LINGER THERE THE LONGEST AND THAT AREA WILL BE IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SHORTWAVE AXIS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
CHILLY AIR AT 850MB IN THE -20C TO -23C RANGE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THE MOISTURE AND
CONVECTIVE LAYER WERE DEEPER IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. INVERSION HEIGHTS
WILL BE AROUND 6-8KFT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...HOWEVER...THE BETTER MOISTURE IS ONLY PROGGED TO BE IN
PLACE THROUGH ABOUT 5-6KFT. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL CANADA. WILL STILL
SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH DIMINISHED RATE...FOR
MORE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EAST WITH THE INCREASED FETCH.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER
TO THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE
INFLECTION POINT BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE TO THE
WEST. THE GFS/EC ARE SHOWING A 500MB CLOSED LOW SLIDING ACROSS
HUDSON BAY THURSDAY NIGHT TO CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THIS HAPPENS...EXPECT A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TO ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA WITH INCREASED MOISTURE WRAPPING THROUGH THE EAST
HALF OF THE CWA. THE MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO SLIDE
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL FOR NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED AREAS.
AGAIN...WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE SLIDING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE
U.P. PLACED THE LIKELY POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THOSE AREAS NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR MOVING IN WILL PRESS THE
FAVORED DGZ DOWN TO THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IT WILL
BE FAIRLY SHALLOW TOO. THIS WOULD KEEP SNOWFLAKE SIZE FAIRLY SMALL
AND SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS A BIT LOWER. THE THINGS HINTING TOWARD
HEAVIER SNOWFALL INTENSITY/ MORE PERSISTENT SNOW OVER THE EAST IS
THE INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO JUMP UP TO NEAR 8KFT OR SO ALONG
WITH INCREASED FORCING IN THAT LAYER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GFS AND EC ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT ON
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SLIDING INTO THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE MOVING FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EASTWARD INTO THE CWA. THIS...ALONG WITH DRIER AIR AND THE SLOW
APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...SHOULD HELP TO DIMINISH THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THIS WORKS OUT
AND THE SURFACE RIDGE IS OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF SUBSTANTIALLY
ACROSS THE CWA WITH LOWS POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS DIVERGE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS
THE GFS TRIES TO BRING A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE EC KEEPS A
SURFACE RIDGE...DRIER AIR AND UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGE IN THE AREA
THROUGH MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THIS POINT WENT WITH A
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS GIVING ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 816 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
A CYCLONIC NNW FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL PERSIST THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
WITH DEEP MOISTURE ALSO LINGERING OVER THE W INTO THIS
AFTERNOON..EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE AT IWD AND CMX.
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR AT LEAST A GOOD PORTION OF
THE TIME AT THOSE SITES BY LATE AFTERNOON FOLLOWING EXIT OF THE
DEEPER MOISTURE. BUT IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. FOR
SAW...MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY WILL GIVE WAY TO IFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO A MORE FAVORABLE NRLY
DIRECTION IN THE PRESENCE OF MORE PERSISTENT DEEPER MOISTURE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN LAKE HURON WILL EXIT THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED N WINDS TO 20
TO 30KNOTS WITH AND GALES TO 35KTS OVER N CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
E HALF. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH THE HEAVIEST FREEZING
SPRAY INTO WED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN
ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE N PLAINS TUESDAY SLOWLY GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA
OF STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION BY THE START OF THE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ006.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ001-003.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ002-009.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ005.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY
FOR LSZ162-263>266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...- NONE -
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
532 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A
PROMINENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIGE OVER THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SE CONUS. AT THE
SFC...STRONG NRLY FLOW PREVAILED THROUGH THE WRN LAKES BTWN A RIDGE
OVER THE PLAINS AND A LOW NEAR THE SRN END OF LAKE HURON. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -22C AND
THE PRESENCE OF ABUNDANTY 850-500 MB MOISTURE SUPPORTED MODERATE TO
HEAVY LES INTO THE WRN CWA NEAR IWD WHERE THE LOW LEVEL CONV WAS
STRONGEST. LES ALSO CONTINUED OVER THE REST OF NRN UPPER MI BUT WAS
NOT AS HEAVY.
TODAY...THE MODELS WERE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS DROPPING TO AROUND 4K FT. SO...WITH DIMINISHING
SNOWFALL RATES EXPECTED...THE LES WARNING/ADVISORIES EXPIRATION OF
21Z LOOKS ON TRACK AFTER ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES.
HOWEVER...LIGHTER LES WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. EVEN WITH LESS
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONV INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI...EXPECT LES WILL
INCREASE TODAY WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE.
IN ADDITION...THE GUSTY N WINDS ALONG THE LAKE WILL PRODUCE
CONSIDERABLE BLSN. AN ADVY WAS ISSUED FOR MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTIES
WHICH WILL EXTEND INTO WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NORMAL WITH HIGHS
FROM 10 TO 15 OVER THE WEST HALF TO THE LOW 20S AND EAST.
TONIGHT...A WEAK SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE NRN LAKES FROM NW ONTARIO
ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL HELP BOOST SNOWFALL
RATES...MAINLY OVER THE CNTRL AREAS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LONGER
FETCHAND WHERE UPSTREAM LOW LEVEL DRYING WILL HAVE LESS INFLUENCE.
LAND BREEZES AND SLIGHTLY VEERING WINDS MAY HELP INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONV INTO EASTERN MARQUETTE AND WRN ALGER COUNTIES WHERE ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THE DGZ
LOWERING CLOSER TO THE SFC AND GREATER DRYING...EXPECT MAINLY 1 TO 4
INCH AMOUNTS OVER THE WEST. EVEN WITH THE VERY COLD AIRMASS OVER THE
AREA...THE LAKE INFLUENCE WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 0 TO 5F RANGE WEST
AND 5 TO 10 EAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE BROAD 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WEST.
THE SHORTWAVE THAT SLID THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P. WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SLIDING
EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO EXIT TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF
THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER.
THE MORE FOCUSED SNOW WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN U.P. AS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LINGER THERE THE LONGEST AND THAT AREA WILL BE IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SHORTWAVE AXIS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
CHILLY AIR AT 850MB IN THE -20C TO -23C RANGE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THE MOISTURE AND
CONVECTIVE LAYER WERE DEEPER IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. INVERSION HEIGHTS
WILL BE AROUND 6-8KFT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...HOWEVER...THE BETTER MOISTURE IS ONLY PROGGED TO BE IN
PLACE THROUGH ABOUT 5-6KFT. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL CANADA. WILL STILL
SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH DIMINISHED RATE...FOR
MORE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EAST WITH THE INCREASED FETCH.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER
TO THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE
INFLECTION POINT BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE TO THE
WEST. THE GFS/EC ARE SHOWING A 500MB CLOSED LOW SLIDING ACROSS
HUDSON BAY THURSDAY NIGHT TO CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THIS HAPPENS...EXPECT A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TO ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA WITH INCREASED MOISTURE WRAPPING THROUGH THE EAST
HALF OF THE CWA. THE MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO SLIDE
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL FOR NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED AREAS.
AGAIN...WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE SLIDING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE
U.P. PLACED THE LIKELY POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THOSE AREAS NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR MOVING IN WILL PRESS THE
FAVORED DGZ DOWN TO THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IT WILL
BE FAIRLY SHALLOW TOO. THIS WOULD KEEP SNOWFLAKE SIZE FAIRLY SMALL
AND SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS A BIT LOWER. THE THINGS HINTING TOWARD
HEAVIER SNOWFALL INTENSITY/ MORE PERSISTENT SNOW OVER THE EAST IS
THE INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO JUMP UP TO NEAR 8KFT OR SO ALONG
WITH INCREASED FORCING IN THAT LAYER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GFS AND EC ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT ON
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SLIDING INTO THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE MOVING FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EASTWARD INTO THE CWA. THIS...ALONG WITH DRIER AIR AND THE SLOW
APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...SHOULD HELP TO DIMINISH THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THIS WORKS OUT
AND THE SURFACE RIDGE IS OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF SUBSTANTIALLY
ACROSS THE CWA WITH LOWS POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS DIVERGE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS
THE GFS TRIES TO BRING A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE EC KEEPS A
SURFACE RIDGE...DRIER AIR AND UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGE IN THE AREA
THROUGH MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THIS POINT WENT WITH A
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS GIVING ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 146 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
A CYC NNW FLOW OF COLD AIR WL PERSIST THIS FCST PERIOD. WITH DEEP
MSTR ALSO LINGERING OVER THE W INTO THIS AFTN...EXPECT IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE AT IWD AND CMX. CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR AT LEAST A GOOD PORTION OF THE TIME AT THOSE
SITES IN THE AFTN FOLLOWING EXIT OF DEEPER MSTR. BUT IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. FOR SAW...VFR/MVFR WX EARLY WL GIVE WAY TO
IFR CONDITIONS LASTER THIS MRNG AS THE LLVL FLOW VEERS TO A MORE
FAVORABLE DUE N DIRECTION IN THE PRESENCE OF MORE PERSISTENT DEEPER
MSTR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN LAKE HURON WILL EXIT THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED N WINDS TO 20
TO 30KNOTS WITH AND GALES TO 35KTS OVER N CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
E HALF. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH THE HEAVIEST FREEZING
SPRAY INTO WED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN
ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE N PLAINS TUESDAY SLOWLY GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA
OF STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION BY THE START OF THE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ006.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ001-003.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ002-009.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ005.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY
FOR LSZ162-263>266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
1005 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
.UPDATE...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SNOW SHOWERS ARE OCCURING JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...BUT EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO REMAIN TO THE
NORTHEAST AND SHIFT EVEN FURTHER AWAY BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE
WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY AND THERE IS A WIND ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL 6PM FOR WINDS 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MIN RH`S FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID 20 PERCENT RANGE COMBINING WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE LIMITED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE
WEST AND SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS HAS ALREADY BEEN HIGHLIGHTED
IN THE HWO AND GRAPHICASTS. MADE A FEW UPDATES TO TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS...BUT OTHER THAN THAT THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK./15/
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WV IMAGERY THIS
MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW BROAD TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY WITH LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WEST. IR IMAGERY SHOWING
INTERMEDIATE CLOUD DECK PERSISTING OVER NE SECTIONS. EXPECT THE CLOUD
DECK TO SPREAD BACK OUT TO THE SW SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNRISE...BUT NOT AS
EXPANSIVE AS YESTERDAY.
SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH WILL SUPPORT A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. GFS BUFR DATA SHOWING WINDS IN THE
MIXED LAYER AVERAGING AROUND 25 KNOTS. THE HRRR IS PICKING UP ON
THIS SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS AND SLIGHTLY LESS TO THE SOUTH.
DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE TEENS OVER THE SW QUARTER ALONG WITH 20 TO
30 MPH WINDS WILL PROMOTE A LIMITED FIRE DANGER RISK AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE THIS ALONG WITH THE WIND RISK IN THE HWO THIS
MORNING.
MID LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER COOL
DAY TODAY AND COLD NIGHT TONIGHT...BUT TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
HEADING INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. MID LEVEL TROF/SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EAST WEDNESDAY LEADING TO WARMER LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS./26/
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...THE LONG TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST FORTUNATELY CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER SUBDUED
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A COUPLE OF REINFORCING DRY COLD
FRONTS WILL DROP SOUTH INTO AND THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE COURSE OF
THE DAY THURSDAY...AND AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. AGAIN NO
RAIN IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WITH THESE FRONTAL PASSAGES.
HOWEVER...AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTS...
AND INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ARE
EXPECTED.
YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD. INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...WILL AID IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES CURRENTLY
LOOKING TO FALL ON MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES COME TO AN END BEHIND THE
FRONT BY MONDAY EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. /19/
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NW
WIND WILL BE GUSTY TODAY WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL THEN SUBSIDE AFTER
SUNSET. /DL/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 48 26 51 36 / 1 3 0 0
MERIDIAN 46 22 50 29 / 2 3 0 5
VICKSBURG 50 28 53 41 / 1 3 0 0
HATTIESBURG 51 27 53 33 / 3 3 0 4
NATCHEZ 52 29 54 42 / 1 3 0 0
GREENVILLE 47 27 49 36 / 2 3 0 0
GREENWOOD 45 23 47 33 / 4 3 0 1
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.
LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ074-075.
&&
$$
26/19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
335 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WV IMAGERY THIS
MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW BROAD TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY WITH LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WEST. IR IMAGERY SHOWING
INTERMEDIATE CLOUD DECK PERSISTING OVER NE SECTIONS. EXPECT THE CLOUD
DECK TO SPREAD BACK OUT TO THE SW SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNRISE...BUT NOT AS
EXPANSIVE AS YESTERDAY.
SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH WILL SUPPORT A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. GFS BUFR DATA SHOWING WINDS IN THE
MIXED LAYER AVERAGING AROUND 25 KNOTS. THE HRRR IS PICKING UP ON
THIS SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS AND SLIGHTLY LESS TO THE SOUTH.
DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE TEENS OVER THE SW QUARTER ALONG WITH 20 TO
30 MPH WINDS WILL PROMOTE A LIMITED FIRE DANGER RISK AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE THIS ALONG WITH THE WIND RISK IN THE HWO THIS
MORNING.
MID LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER COOL
DAY TODAY AND COLD NIGHT TONIGHT...BUT TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
HEADING INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. MID LEVEL TROF/SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EAST WEDNESDAY LEADING TO WARMER LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS./26/
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...THE LONG TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST FORTUNATELY CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER SUBDUED
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A COUPLE OF REINFORCING DRY COLD
FRONTS WILL DROP SOUTH INTO AND THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE COURSE OF
THE DAY THURSDAY...AND AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. AGAIN NO
RAIN IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WITH THESE FRONTAL PASSAGES.
HOWEVER...AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTS...
AND INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ARE
EXPECTED.
YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD. INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...WILL AID IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES CURRENTLY
LOOKING TO FALL ON MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES COME TO AN END BEHIND THE
FRONT BY MONDAY EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. /19/
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL ONCE AGAIN TODAY BECOME SOMEWHAT STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON WITH
GUSTS NEAR 35 KNOTS. THESE SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH BY 10/00Z./26/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 48 26 51 36 / 1 3 0 0
MERIDIAN 46 22 50 29 / 2 3 0 5
VICKSBURG 50 28 53 41 / 1 3 0 0
HATTIESBURG 51 27 53 33 / 3 3 0 4
NATCHEZ 52 29 54 42 / 1 3 0 0
GREENVILLE 47 27 49 36 / 2 3 0 0
GREENWOOD 45 23 47 33 / 4 3 0 1
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.
LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ074-075.
&&
$$
26/19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
932 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016
.UPDATE:
Issued at 930 PM CST Wed Feb 10 2016
As expected...snow bands primarilly forcied via mesoscale
processes have weakened dramatically with only some flurries
remaining. For the rest of tonight...a cloudy sky along with
light/variable winds are expected. Exception could be far southern
and western CWA which will be on the very edge of the cloud deck.
In these areas...had to drop low temperatures a few degrees as
temperatures have dropped fairly quickly under a partly cloudy to
mostly clear sky.
Gosselin
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 339 PM CST Wed Feb 10 2016
Bands of warm advection snow are moving thou eastern Missouri and
southern Illinois. Amounts ranging from a little more than a
dusting up to around 1.5 inches have been reported with the bands.
RAP may have been the best model to handle this system today, but
even it wasn`t far enough east with the accumulating precip earlier
today. Regardless...current thinking is that the western edge of
the accumulating snow will reach the Mississippi River by around 00Z
this evening. The snow also looks to be deteriorating from the
northwest although there are still a few reports of light snow in
Iowa. With the RAP, NAM, and GFS continuing to show some pretty
impressive warm advection and low level frontogenesis after 00Z, I
can`t rule out additional (very) light accumulations this evening
along and east of the Mississippi. Anything more than 1/2 inch
looks very unlikely and probably confined to our southeastern
counties. Any lingering precipitation should end by midnight.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 339 PM CST Wed Feb 10 2016
Dry and continued cold weather on Thursday as a surface ridge drops
southeastward through eastern MO and IL with continued northwesterly
mid-upper level flow. A northwest flow shortwave will bring some
light snow, mainly to northeast MO and west central IL Thursday
night and Friday morning. It appears that accumulations will be
light at less than one inch due to the progressive nature of the
shortwave along with limited moisture. Most areas should just get a
quick dusting of light, powdery snow. Slightly warmer temperatures
can be expected on Friday, but this will be short lived as another
cold front drops southeastward through our forecast area on Friday
with a strong 1040 mb surface ridge building into the area behind
it. Temperatures may actually begin to fall in northeast MO Friday
afternoon after frontal passage. Northwesterly winds will
strengthen Friday afternoon and evening after the cold front passes
through due to a tightening surface pressure gradient. It appears
that this will be a dry frontal passage, but much colder
temperatures can be expected Friday night and Saturday with very
cold wind chillls possible Friday night. Warm air advection ahead
of a northern stream shortwave may bring some snow to northeast MO
and west central IL Saturday night. The ECMWF model appears a
little too quick bringing precipitation into the area already by
Saturday afternoon with an initially very dry air boundary layer on
the backside of the strong surface ridge. Model solutions continue
to vary from the Sunday through Monday period. The GFS model
spreads snow through the area Sunday and Sunday evening ahead of a
northern stream shortwave. The ECMWF model is weaker and quicker
with the northern stream shortwave and keeps most of the
precipitation north of our forecast area on Sunday, but then
develops a strong southern stream shortwave and associated surface
low which brings snow to the southern half of the forecast area
Sunday night and Monday morning. With theses model discrepancies,
for now will just include chance pops for the forecast area Sunday
and Sunday night. Warmer temperatures are expected for Tuesday and
Wednesday as the upper level trough shifts east of the region with
upper level heights rising and surface winds becoming southerly. The
ECMWF model is not as warm for Wednesday compared to the GFS as it
brings another cold front southeastward through our area as an upper
level trough moves through the Great Lakes region. The GFS solution
does not have either the upper level trough or the cold front. For
now will keep with the warming trend for Monday through Wednesday.
GKS
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 536 PM CST Wed Feb 10 2016
Snow band has slowed its eastward progress but has weakened
substantially over the past couple of hours. Some light snow will
likely continue for a couple of hours for KSTL and KCPS with some
IFR visibilities still possible at KCPS early this evening.
Otherwise...expect the snow to shut off completely later on this
evening with ceilings mostly VFR. Will have to watch to see if
ceilings try and drop back down later tonight like the RAP
suggests but observations upstream have mostly VFR so kept it more
optimistic for now. Light/variable winds this evening will become
predominantly easterly later on tonight and for Thursday.
Specifics for KSTL:
Light snow is expected to continue to weaken and eventually
dissipate later on this evening. Ceilings expected to remain
mostly VFR...though cannot rule out lower ceilings as RAP and some
other guidance suggests. However...upstream observations by and
large do not support a dip back into MVFR so left out of TAF for
now. Winds will be light/variable this evening before becoming
more easterly later on tonight and through the day on Thursday.
Gosselin
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
544 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 339 PM CST Wed Feb 10 2016
Bands of warm advection snow are moving thou eastern Missouri and
southern Illinois. Amounts ranging from a little more than a
dusting up to around 1.5 inches have been reported with the bands.
RAP may have been the best model to handle this system today, but
even it wasn`t far enough east with the accumulating precip earlier
today. Regardless...current thinking is that the western edge of
the accumulating snow will reach the Mississippi River by around 00Z
this evening. The snow also looks to be deteriorating from the
northwest although there are still a few reports of light snow in
Iowa. With the RAP, NAM, and GFS continuing to show some pretty
impressive warm advection and low level frontogenesis after 00Z, I
can`t rule out additional (very) light accumulations this evening
along and east of the Mississippi. Anything more than 1/2 inch
looks very unlikely and probably confined to our southeastern
counties. Any lingering precipitation should end by midnight.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 339 PM CST Wed Feb 10 2016
Dry and continued cold weather on Thursday as a surface ridge drops
southeastward through eastern MO and IL with continued northwesterly
mid-upper level flow. A northwest flow shortwave will bring some
light snow, mainly to northeast MO and west central IL Thursday
night and Friday morning. It appears that accumulations will be
light at less than one inch due to the progressive nature of the
shortwave along with limited moisture. Most areas should just get a
quick dusting of light, powdery snow. Slightly warmer temperatures
can be expected on Friday, but this will be short lived as another
cold front drops southeastward through our forecast area on Friday
with a strong 1040 mb surface ridge building into the area behind
it. Temperatures may actually begin to fall in northeast MO Friday
afternoon after frontal passage. Northwesterly winds will
strengthen Friday afternoon and evening after the cold front passes
through due to a tightening surface pressure gradient. It appears
that this will be a dry frontal passage, but much colder
temperatures can be expected Friday night and Saturday with very
cold wind chillls possible Friday night. Warm air advection ahead
of a northern stream shortwave may bring some snow to northeast MO
and west central IL Saturday night. The ECMWF model appears a
little too quick bringing precipitation into the area already by
Saturday afternoon with an initially very dry air boundary layer on
the backside of the strong surface ridge. Model solutions continue
to vary from the Sunday through Monday period. The GFS model
spreads snow through the area Sunday and Sunday evening ahead of a
northern stream shortwave. The ECMWF model is weaker and quicker
with the northern stream shortwave and keeps most of the
precipitation north of our forecast area on Sunday, but then
develops a strong southern stream shortwave and associated surface
low which brings snow to the southern half of the forecast area
Sunday night and Monday morning. With theses model discrepancies,
for now will just include chance pops for the forecast area Sunday
and Sunday night. Warmer temperatures are expected for Tuesday and
Wednesday as the upper level trough shifts east of the region with
upper level heights rising and surface winds becoming southerly. The
ECMWF model is not as warm for Wednesday compared to the GFS as it
brings another cold front southeastward through our area as an upper
level trough moves through the Great Lakes region. The GFS solution
does not have either the upper level trough or the cold front. For
now will keep with the warming trend for Monday through Wednesday.
GKS
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 536 PM CST Wed Feb 10 2016
Snow band has slowed its eastward progress but has weakened
substantially over the past couple of hours. Some light snow will
likely continue for a couple of hours for KSTL and KCPS with some
IFR visibilities still possible at KCPS early this evening.
Otherwise...expect the snow to shut off completely later on this
evening with ceilings mostly VFR. Will have to watch to see if
ceilings try and drop back down later tonight like the RAP
suggests but observations upstream have mostly VFR so kept it more
optimistic for now. Light/variable winds this evening will become
predominantly easterly later on tonight and for Thursday.
Specifics for KSTL:
Light snow is expected to continue to weaken and eventually
dissipate later on this evening. Ceilings expected to remain
mostly VFR...though cannot rule out lower ceilings as RAP and some
other guidance suggests. However...upstream observations by and
large do not support a dip back into MVFR so left out of TAF for
now. Winds will be light/variable this evening before becoming
more easterly later on tonight and through the day on Thursday.
Gosselin
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
345 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 345 PM CST Tue Feb 9 2016
Scattered flurries will continue for the rest of the afternoon under
the strato-cu deck. There is a clearing slot running down the west
side of the Mississippi River down almost to the Missouri River. The
clouds should continue to break up...although RAP and NAM soundings
show plenty of low level moisture trapped under an inversion into
the evening. Think most of the area should be clear of the low
clouds by 06Z...though south central Illinois counties will likely
stay under the clouds into Wednesday morning. Cold advection on
northwest flow will continue tonight into early Wednesday. Think
guidance temperatures in the single digits to mid teens look good
for lows tonight.
Focus turns to storm system developing on Wednesday. This look to
be a purely warm advection/frontogenesis snow. GFS, ECMWF and NAM
are showing some pretty high values of warm advection...between 30
to 50 degrees C/12hr. Forecast soundings show the moist layer
extending up into the dendritic growth zone with a decent amount of
lift through that layer as well. Looks like the snow will hold off
until mid-late afternoon. Due to the cold atmosphere and lift in
the best snow-growth zone, expect this will be a fluffy snow which
will accumulate pretty quickly...especially since highs will stay
well below freezing.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 345 PM CST Tue Feb 9 2016
Model guidance continues to improve its consensus for the track and
impact on the storm system expected to be ongoing early Wednesday
evening. The consensus track for max QPF stretches from north-
central MO thru the southwestern half of the STL metro area and
towards Cape Girardeau, MO. The WAA associated with this event is
expected to be intense and will probably result in rapid onset and
development which, again, should be ongoing by sundown Wednesday
evening. WAA remains intense thru much of Wednesday evening with
lift continuing well into the overnight hours, and for this reason,
will keep a mention of pcpn thru the nighttime hours with this
package. A fairly broad stripe of up to 1" of new snow accum is now
looking possible with this system, with near 2" potential in its
core/peak QPF track. If the WAA continues to be advertised as
intense with this system, these snow amounts, especially in the core
track, will probably need to be bumped up further due to high
anticipated snow to liquid ratios, when light winds are taken into
account from the surface RIDGE being over our region and a cold low-
mid level column.
Another system, of a more classic clipper variety, may impact our
region on late Thursday night into Friday, but the track for this
continues to be more to the northeast thru southern IA into central
IL, with only a modest mention of flurries or low PoPs justified at
this time.
Otherwise, a prolonged period of below average temps is forecast
from now thru the upcoming weekend, with very little moderation
expected in temps on Friday before the next shot of Arctic air
descends on our region for the weekend. Only by early next week
does the persistent RIDGE over the western CONUS begin to translate
eastward and could mean a return to average to even above average
temps at some point next week.
It is near this transition period Sunday-Monday that another system
is expected to impact our region. The GFS has finally come onboard
with the more consistent EC and GEM solutions but the nature of this
system is far from settled, with its initial onset possibly as early
as Saturday night and it may be completely done by Monday now. This
earlier timing would certainly favor an all snow event, with more
average temps for mid-February set to return on the heels of this
event. With the main storm still well over the north Pacific, there
is much that can go wrong or change and something to stay tuned for.
But as it stands now, could see widespread advisory criteria
snowfall.
TES
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1123 AM CST Tue Feb 9 2016
MVFR ceilings will prevail along and east of the Mississippi river
this afternoon and into the evening. Light snow showers or
flurries will occasionally lower the visibility to 3-5SM where
clouds persist this afternoon as well. Expect ceilings over much
of central Missouri and some of northeast Missouri to scatter out
over the next few hours. Guidance suggests that most of the area
will go VFR between 06Z and 10Z tonight, but low clouds will
probably hang around thorugh most of Wednesday morning over south
central Illinois. Northwest wind will continue...but should
diminish Wednesday morning.
Specifics for KSTL:
Surface obs are showing MVFR ceilings upstream all the way through
eastern Iowa. Should see the ceilings clear out tonight...though
timing is uncertain at this time. Given the time of year and
continued lift in the atmosphere due to low pressure aloft, I
leaned more pessimistic on the ceiling forecast. Northwest flow
will continue, but should diminish Wednesday morning. Current
thinking on Wedenesday`s potential snow is that the majority of it
will be southeast of the terminal...and not until late afternoon
or early evening so have left mention of additional snow out of
the terminal forecast for this issuance.
Carney
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
531 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016
AFTER A SEASONABLY NICE AFTERNOON...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
RAPIDLY FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING THIS EVENING AS THE SUN GOES
DOWN...WITH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO ROLL BACK IN ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT
ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS STRATUS...AND OPTED TO INTRODUCE THIS
INTO THE FORECAST AFTER ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WHILE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THE MORE DENSE FOG IS WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA...THE
LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR IS INDICATING THIS MORE DENSE AREA OF FOG
COULD AT LEAST CREEP IN ON OUR WESTERN COUNTIES TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...AND THIS WILL BE SOMETHING FOR THE EVENING SHIFT TO
MONITOR AS NEW MODEL DATA COMES IN.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LITTLE SHIFT IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MAKING ITS WAY OVER THE TOP
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY AND THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST
TO INCH BACK ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...BRINGING SIGNIFICANT LOW
LEVEL STRATUS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS THE REGION
TOMORROW...WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKING AT THE OVERALL PICTURE...UPPER LEVEL NWRLY
FLOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE HUDSON BAY AREA KEEPS THE ERN CONUS UNDER BROAD
TROUGHING...WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS NORTH THROUGH THE
ROCKIES. AT THIS POINT...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THURS NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK JUST OFF TO THE N/NE OF
THE CWA. THE MAIN STORY THROUGH FRIDAY LIES WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT...BEING PUSHED SOUTH BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH
TO THE N/NE. WHILE THE SFC PATTERN STARTS THE PERIOD OUT FAIRLY
RELAXED...THIS FRONT WITH USHER IN NRLY WINDS BY SUNRISE
FRIDAY...GRADUALLY TURNING MORE NERLY THROUGH THE DAY. COLDER AIR
STARTS TO ADVECT INTO THE CWA...AND DID LOWER FORECAST HIGHS FOR
FRIDAY...WITH NEAR 30 NOW IN THE NORTHEAST TO NEAR 40 IN THE SW.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY REGARDING PRECIP
CHANCES/LACK OF...IS NOT HIGH. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL REMAIN LOOKS TO
REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY...BUT THERE IS BETTER POTENTIAL FOR THE CWA TO
BE AFFECTED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE MAIN FLOW. LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING IS THE FIRST SHOT OF THIS ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH...WITH MODELS ALSO SHOWING THE CWA SITTING ON THE ERN
EDGE OF A 25-30KT LLJ SITTING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS HINTING
AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AFFECTING MAINLY WRN
AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DIFFERING SOME
WITH THE OVERALL THICKNESS OF THE SATURATED LAYER...LEAVING THE
QUESTION WHETHER THERE WOULD BE ANYTHING MEASURABLE...OR IF IT WOULD BE MORE
FZDZ OR FLURRIES. HAVE A 20 POP/SNOW GOING AS WELL AS A SLGT CHANCE
FOR FZDZ. ONLY KEPT THE MENTION GOING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...THOUGH IF YOU BELIEVE THE NAM QPF FIELDS THERE WOULD BE
SOMETHING AROUND ALL DAY SATURDAY. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES
GO...SATURDAY STILL FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOCATED OVER NERN IA...WITH ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA NOT TOO FAR AWAY
FROM DOUBLE DIGIT BELOW ZERO TEMPS AT 850MB. EVEN WITH THE BRUNT OF
THE COLDEST AIR OFF TO OUR EAST...FORECAST HIGHS CURRENTLY RANGE
FROM NEAR 20 IN THE NORTHEAST TO LOWER 30S IN THE SW. LOOKING TO
SUNDAY...THE FORECAST IS DRY...BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH. MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR 1 /PERHAPS 2/ WEAK WAVES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...JUST SOME DIFFERENCES
IN LOCATION. WILL SEE HOW THINGS TREND BEFORE INSERTING POPS.
EXPECTING TO SEE REBOUNDING TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AS THAT COLDER AIR
PUSHES EAST AND WARMER TEMPS START TO BUILD IN...WITH 40S CURRENTLY
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...THE FORECAST REMAINS
DRY...WITH MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TAKING OVER THE WRN CONUS AND GRADUALLY BUILDING EAST. NICE
WARM UP CURRENTLY GOING IN THE FORECAST...WITH 50S FORECAST FOR
TUE/WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 517 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS UPSTREAM
STRATUS IN THE DAKOTAS MIGRATES SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION
OF SNOW MELT TODAY...WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOWARD
DAYBREAK AND EDGE OF STRATUS COULD PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY AS POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DENSE FOG. LOOKS LIKE STRATUS MAY
HOLD FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY THURSDAY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
529 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016
MILD AIR HAS PUSHED INTO ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ARCTIC FRONT HAS RETREATED EAST...ALL
THE WAY TO FAR NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WESTERLY
WINDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE SURGED INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER
NON SNOW COVERED AREAS OF THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS...TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THE H5 PATTERN TODAY REMAINED
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...AND HAS SHIFTED 100 TO 200 MILES FURTHER EAST
TDY. RIDGING EXTENDED FROM SRN NEVADA...NORTH INTO SRN YUKON WHILE
A TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES...SOUTH TO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SRN FLORIDA. IN BETWEEN THE
TROUGH AND RIDGE...A TIGHT NWRLY H5 GRADIENT WAS NOTED AND
EXTENDED FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE BOOT HEEL OF MISSOURI.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016
TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S TODAY HAVE RESULTED IN SOME DECENT SNOW
MELT. MEANWHILE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SW INTO THE
REGION. THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS WILL
CREATE SOME CONCERNS FOR TEMPS...AS WARM TEMPS TO THE WEST OF THE
FRONT AND COOL TEMPS TO THE EAST. FOR NOW WILL MODEL BLEND THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONT...WITH THE WEST AND SNOW FREE AREAS TO WARM
TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO NEAR 50. LIKELY GOING TO HOLD IN THE 30S TO
AROUND 40 IN THE EAST.
FOR TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE FOLLOWING THE MEANDERING FRONT. SOME
SATURATION AND WEAK LIFT IN THE BL COULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL MAINLY IMPACT N
CENTRAL...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO ONLY INCLUDED PATCHY
WORDING. ELSEWHERE...THE ADDED MOISTURE IN THE BL FROM THE SNOW MELT
SHOULD CREATE A RICH ENVIRONMENT FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE PATCHY DENSE FOG. DEW PTS HAVE INCREASED
INTO THE LOWER 30S...WHILE EXPECTED LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016
MID TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A COUPLE OF FORECAST
CONCERNS HIGHLIGHT THE MID RANGE. THE FIRST IS
TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN THE
THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT
SNOW THREAT FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE ORIENTED ACROSS THE FAR NERN CWA.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THIS FRONT FROM WEST CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY EVENING. AS THE LOW
APPROACHES...WEAK LIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE PRESENT IN BOYD AND
NERN HOLT COUNTIES. WITH THIS IN MIND...DECIDED TO PLACE SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW IN THESE AREAS. THE FRONT WILL SURGE NORTHEAST
AHEAD OF THE LOWS TRACK...THEN QUICKLY SURGE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO SERN NEBRASKA. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...FORCING THE ARCTIC FRONT SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. BY FRIDAY EVENING...THE FRONT WILL BE ORIENTED
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. HIGHS WERE LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY FOR FRIDAY AS
THE FRONTAL TIMING IS NOW 6 TO 12 HRS EARLIER THAN WHAT WAS
INDICATED WITH YESTERDAY/S MODEL SOLNS. THAT BEING SAID...WITH THE
COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND EASTERLY WINDS...HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
STUCK IN THE 20S AND 30S. ON FRIDAY EVENING...THE FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TEMPORARILY BEFORE TRACKING SLOWLY EAST
OVERNIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK AREA OF MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL LIFT EAST OVER THE FRONT AS A H750 WARM FRONT BEGINS
TO PUSH INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERMAL PROFILES
INITIALLY SUPPORT ALL SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT EAST OF THE PANHANDLE AND
FIRST TIER OF COUNTIES FROM MERRIMAN TO HAYES CENTER. HOWEVER...WEST
OF THIS LINE...FCST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATIVE OF SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. THIS FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL WILL SPREAD EAST
SATURDAY AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE FZDZ THREAT WILL LIE PRIMARILY EAST OF A
AINSWORTH TO TAYLOR LINE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA...TO LOWER 40S IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE
AND FAR SWRN NEBRASKA.
LONG RANGE...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE INHERITED FCST DID HAVE A MENTION OF LIGHT
PCPN ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA SAT NIGHT AND THIS
WAS RETAINED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. ON SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND AND THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS
INTO THE UPPER MISISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE WILL STILL BE A LIMITED
THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN...THEN NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA SUNDAY. DECIDED TO LEAVE POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
NOW...AS FORCING IS WEAK AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE. AFTER SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS TRANSITIONING FROM THE 40S MONDAY...TO
THE 50S TO AROUND 60 TUESDAY...THEN THE 50S FOR WEDNESDAY. THE
PATTERN ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL PATTERN...WHICH
WILL ALLOW WARMER PACIFIC AIR TO INFILTRATE THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ANY
ARCTIC AIR NEXT WEEK...IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016
MVFR/IFR IN FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING ALONG AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOCATED KIEN-KTIF-KBBW. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL
WEST OF HIGHWAY 61 EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY
EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEST
TO EAST THURSDAY. HOWEVER LOW CIGS COULD LAST ALL DAY NEAR KONL-
KANW AND PERHAPS KVTN.
THE RAP MODEL SEEMED THE MOST RATIONAL. THE NAM AND SREF WERE TOO
AGRESSIVE...THE GFS WAS THE LEAST. THE RAP AND ECM MODELS WERE IN
THE MIDDLE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
321 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
H5 SIMILAR PATTERN TO YESTERDAY WITH WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. NORTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH 100KTS-130KTS AT 250MB.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
MODELS IN THE NEAR TERM VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND
JET DYNAMICS ALOFT PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME
FLURRIES EARLY THIS MORNING OVER NORTH CENTRAL ZONES. THE BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH WEST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. HAVE KEPT FLURRIES OVER
MAINLY CHERRY COUNTY THROUGH THE MORNING. A MIX THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH SOME ENHANCED OMEGA THROUGH KVTN 18Z. AS THE BOUNDARY
PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE DAY AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE EAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 30S OVER NORTH CENTRAL
ONEILL VICINITY AND TO THE WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 IN THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES OVER NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOWS IN THE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 20S WITH
TEENS ONEILL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
MID RANGE...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
TEMPERATURES. VERY STRONG 850HPA WAA IS PROMINENT IN THE
MODELS...MOST EVIDENT ALONG/EAST OF U.S. HWY 83...WITH TEMP AT LBF
RISING FROM 2C AT 00Z WED TO 9C AT 18Z AND FROM 0C TO 8C AT BBW. THE
00Z MOS GUIDANCE SUITE CAME IN WARMER...ECM SHOWS SFC TEMPS IN THE
50S AND 60S FOR THE AREA...MAV GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 50S...AND MET
UPPER 40S. GIVEN GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS IN THE WARMING
TREND...DID BUMP MAX TEMPS UP BUT STILL LIMITED TO NEAR THE MAV.
ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE AT 280K AND 290K ALONG WITH WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW
IN THE LOWER LEVELS ARE FAVORABLE FOR WARMER CONDITIONS THAN
FORECAST...BUT CONCERNS REMAIN IN GOING AS HIGH AS THE ECM. NAM AND
GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP AN INVERSION INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH
GREATLY LIMITS MIXING...ALTHOUGH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FROM THE
SFC TO 500HPA EARLY IN THE DAY MAY HELP WEAKEN IT. ALSO...A SNOW
PACK REMAINS FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WIND DROPS OFF WHILE DEW POINTS REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH. SREF
HINTS AT STRATUS OR FOG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK MID LEVEL
WAVE PASSES THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY. FRONTOGENESIS AND SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BUT ISENTROPIC
DOWNGLIDE AND THE LACK OF LIFT BELOW 850HPA WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES
TO A MINIMUM. CLOUDS AND WEAK CAA WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER MAX
TEMPS.
LONG RANGE...FRIDAY TO MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS GIVES WAY TO A FAST MOVING LOW/TROUGH ON SUNDAY BEFORE
RESUMING ON MONDAY. THE GFS AND EURO SOLUTIONS APPEAR MORE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES
REMAIN IN UPPER JET PLACEMENT AND 850HPA TEMPS. WITH OVERALL FORCING
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKING BETTER FOR THE AREA...NOW A SCHC OF
PRECIP FOR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. MEX AND ECE GUIDANCE ARE ALSO
SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT FOR MAX TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE
850HPA TROUGH/CAA ARRIVING SATURDAY. RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN ON MONDAY
WITH FAIR CONDITIONS AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS...ALLOWING A QUICK
REBOUND IN TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW NO
REAL CONSENSUS WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BUT THE FORECAST USES THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD GFS SOLN. THE NAM AND SREF WILL VERY BULLISH
WHILE THE RAP AND ECM EASY ON THE STRATUS. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH NCNTL NEB.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1152 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 608 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
HAVE ALLOWED WIND AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE ON
SCHEDULE AT 6 PM. SNOW HAS ENDED IN SOUTHWEST IOWA COUNTIES...AND
WITH WINDS SUBSIDING THIS EVENING...BLOWING SNOW WILL NOT BE AN
ISSUE THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOW REGION IN
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST WHILE AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST.
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT PRODUCED VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN ADDITION
TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 00Z WHEN ALL WINDS SHOULD BE
BELOW CRITERIA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NATION`S
MID SECTION THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WILL FOCUS MAINLY ON TEMPERATURES AS ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN CHANCES
ARE MINIMAL.
WE CONTINUE A VERY SMALL POP IN OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY AS A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH A VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH UPPER TEENS IN
OUR NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S IN OUR SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE FLOW ON FRIDAY WITH
MUCH OF THE STRONG FORCING REMAINING TO OUR NORTHEAST.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGING TO THE WEST DEAMPLIFIES LEAVING OUR REGION IN
MORE OF A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS STRONG 1047 MB HIGH.
THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BRINGING A CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO
THE NATION`S MID SECTION ON SUNDAY BUT WILL WAIT FOR SOME BETTER
MODEL CONTINUITY BEFORE ADDING A BUNCH OF POPS FOR THE TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
THE WINDS ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING. REALIZING THERE WILL BE THIS VARIABILITY...FOR A
GENERAL FORECAST WENT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15KTS AND MENTIONED
SOME GUSTS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. THE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD DIE
DOWN TO LESS THAN 12KTS LATER TUESDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THE PATCH OF MVFR CONDITIONS IS EVEN MORE
PATCHY. LOW CLOUDS STILL SKIRT KOMA. WITH SOME WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION DID MENTION A COUPLE OF HOURS AT KOMA WITH PATCHY MVFR.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DERGAN
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1124 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED IN THE WEST WHILE LARGE UPPER
LOW SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.
100M+ HEIGHT RISES OCCURRING ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AT H5 IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES AND THESE HEIGHT RISES ARE PROGGED TO
CONTINUE MOVING SEWD AS WELL. IR SAT PICS INDICATING MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS IN THE TRANSITION ZONE AS WELL AS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS IN CONCERT. FURTHER
WEST...STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OVER WRN BC AND WEAK UPPER LOW
UNDERCUTTING WRN STATES RIDGE AS A PV ANOMALY MOVES THROUGH NRN
MEXICO INTO WRN TX.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DROP OFF WITH SUNSET AND SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS WEAKENING ALREADY IN THE PANHANDLE. WEAK MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE NWRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MID LEVEL LIFT COMES AHEAD OF NEXT PV
ANOMALY ROUNDING THE WRN STATES UPPER RIDGE. THIS FEATURE AND THE
TEMPORARY FLATTENING OF THE WRN RIDGE WILL INCREASE THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND TMRW AND WILL BE ABLE TO
WORK WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE STREAMING OVER THE RIDGE TO DEVELOP
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TMRW ACROSS THE N. SOME NEG EPV LOCATED IN THE
ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MODELS HINTING AT SHOWER-TYPE PRECIP IN
THE FORM OF SNOW ONCE SATURATION TAKES PLACES FROM TOP DOWN. WHILE
TEMPS DO EXCEED THE FREEZING MARK BY AFTERNOON AT THE SFC...SOUNDING
PROFILES IN THE NRN FCST AREA SUGGESTS GOOD ISOTHERMAL LAYER IN THE
ACCRETION ZONE AND WET BULB STILL BELOW ZERO C.
TEMPS WILL BE SIGHTLY WARMER TMRW BUT TEMPERED BY THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT MENTIONED. WINDS HOWEVER WILL BE LIGHTER MAKING IT FEEL WARMER
OVERALL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
LOOKING AT A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST CROSS-SECTION ACROSS NEBRASKA
TUESDAY NIGHT...A LAYER OF WEAK FRONTOGENETIC FORCING CAN BE SEEN IN
THE 275-295K LAYER WHICH IS VERY STABLE. THE TEMPERATURE AT THE TOP
OF THAT LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE -10C TO -14C WHICH COULD PRODUCE A
MIX OF CRYSTAL TYPES FALLING THROUGH AN ISOTHERMAL SATURATED LAYER
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THOUGH THE FORCING IS WEAK...IT COULD STILL
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.
ON SUNDAY...A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME SYSTEM-RELATIVE LIFT
INTO A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE LAYER OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. HOWEVER SOURCE LAYER IS RELATIVELY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE 0C. PRECIPITATION FALLING THROUGH THE LAYER COULD BE EXPECTED
TO COOL THE LAYER TO BELOW 0C...BUT THE LOWEST LAYER WOULD STILL BE
ABOVE FREEZING AND RAIN IS THE LIKELY FORM OF PRECIPITATION THAT
DOES FALL...AT LEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY
OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. WITH THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED...WE
WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY LOW AT LESS THAN 25 PERCENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW NO
REAL CONSENSUS WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BUT THE FORECAST USES THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD GFS SOLN. THE NAM AND SREF WILL VERY BULLISH
WHILE THE RAP AND ECM EASY ON THE STRATUS. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH NCNTL NEB.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STOPPKOTTE
SHORT TERM...STOPPKOTTE
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
354 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE A BLAST OF VERY COLD AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STUBBORNLY HANGING ON
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE MID/UPPER 40S. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER
HAVE BEEN REACHING THE GROUND PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WILL
CARRY A SMALL POPS FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LATEST
3KM HRRR AND RAP MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE INCREASING WESTERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ADD ADDITIONAL CHILL TO THE AIR AS LOWS
TONIGHT DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S OVER MOST AREAS WITH LOW/MID 30S
OUTER BANKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE BETWEEN 750 AND 850 MB WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
YIELD PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ANOMALOUSLY LOW THICKNESSES SHOULD LEAD
TO A CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S WITH WEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN
COLDER.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ARCTIC
AIRMASS MOVING INTO EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY... HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO
RISE...BUT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN DOMINANT ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF. 850MB TEMPERATURE STILL REMAINS BELOW
AVERAGE...THEREFORE LEADING TO ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. THURSDAY NIGHT, EXPECT LOWS IN
THE LOW 20S.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN FROM
CANADA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO RE-AMPLIFYING THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF U.S. AND BRINGING EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
BOTH THE 09/12Z GFS AND 09/12Z ECMWF IS HAVING A BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER FOR FRIDAY INTO LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH MODELS SHOW A STRONG FORCING AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
WHILE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND SFC LOW DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST. THE SHORTWAVE COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SEE SOME -RA/-SN
SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS OF -RA/-SN MIX...THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOW 40S.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN COLDER/DRIER
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION.VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET BY
SUNDAY BTW -20C TO -15C WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE
1225-1240M RANGE. THIS WILL BRING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH HIGH STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY
HIGHS...UPPER 30S/LOW 40S AND SUNDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR BOTH SATURDAY SUNDAY
NIGHT.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES IN FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DEVELOPING A SFC LOW DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION 20% POP FOR RAIN...MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY... AS THE SFC LOW WILL BE CLOSE TO THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND MONDAY AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE 40S MONDAY AND LOW 50S TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE
IN THE 850-750 MB LAYER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED TO
OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CEILINGS IN THE 5000-8000 FOOT RANGE. THERE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT MIXING IN THE LOWER-LEVELS TO PRECLUDE ANY
FOG FORMATION TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW 5 TO 15 KNOTS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WITH ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD BEHIND IT. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FOR THURSDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.../
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...VERY ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE WITH 7 TO 12 FOOT
SEAS COMBINED WITH 14-15 SECOND SWELLS AT THE BUOYS. THE LATEST
3KM HRRR AND RAP MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND PAMLICO SOUND TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. NO CHANGES TO THE
ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW...SEAS SHOULD
SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUES...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND
ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALL THE COASTAL
WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. THERE WILL BE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS WINDS
AND SEAS SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS...WITH NW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS
AND 2 TO 4 FT. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS ANOTHER
STRONG COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS...EXPECT NW
WINDS 20-30 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY...LATEST PREDICTED WATER LEVEL DEPARTURES
DURING THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AND AGAIN AROUND MID-MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY ARE AROUND 3 FEET...DOWN A BIT FROM THIS MORNING`S TIDE
WHICH PRODUCED SOME MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. EARLIER
ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER BANKS TO RUN THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL OCEAN
OVERWASH AND BEACH EROSION THAT MAY OCCUR AROUND THE NEXT TWO HIGH
TIDES.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...CTC/BM
MARINE...CTC/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
951 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
TODAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE A BLAST OF VERY
COLD AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM TUESDAY...VSBY SATELLITE SHOWING SOME CLOUDINESS OVER
OUR WESTERN CWA WITH LIGHT RADAR RETURNS...BUT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT INDICATING ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY MAKING IT TO
THE SURFACE. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50. LIGHT WSW WILL INCREASE AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON PER LATEST HRRR MODEL. MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...CLOUDINESS WITH SHRT WV ENERGY WILL
CONTINUE INTO EVENING...THEN SOME CLEARING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
CONTINUED ADVECTION OF ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL DROP MIN TEMPS INTO
MID TO UPR 20S INLAND AND LOW-MID 30S OBX EVEN WITH WEST WINDS
5-15 MPH KEEPING MIXED ATMOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUE...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NE STATES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NE WED AND
WED NIGHT WHILE DEEP TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN US. PRED DRY
AND COLD WED AND THU. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ALONG THE OUTER BANKS WED NIGHT...THOUGH EXPECT
MOST OF PRECIP TO REMAIN OFFSHORE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
SUPPORT HIGHS WED IN THE LOW 40S AND 35-40 DEG THU...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 20S.
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH 00Z SOLUTIONS NOW SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. STILL LOOKS LIKE STRONG FORCING AS SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH WHILE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE SHORTWAVE COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SEE SOME -RA/-SN SHOWERS. ECMWF REMAINS
WARMER THEN THE GFS AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...WITH PTYPE MAINLY
LIQUID WHILE THE GFS SUPPORTS MORE OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX. WILL
CONTINUE SC -RA/-SN MENTION THOUGH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH VERY COLD/DRY AIRMASS PUSHING
INTO THE REGION. VERY COLD 1035-1040MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NNW SAT AND SUN. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB
TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS SAT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S...AND EVEN
COLDER FOR SUN. WITH 850MB TEMPS -15 TO -20C HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH FREEZING SUNDAY...COMBINED WITH GUSTY NLY WINDS IT WILL
FEEL LIKE TEMPS IN THE TEENS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S ALONG THE
COAST...BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. WILL KEEP SC MENTION OF
-SN SHOWERS OVER THE OUTER BANKS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH STRONG
FORCING OVER THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL NNW FLOW.
EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
MODELS ARE PUSHING A TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION AND DEVELOPING A
SFC LOW OFF THE SE COAST LATE MON AND TUE...WITH BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. ADDED SC POP FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUE. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING...PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM TUESDAY...LCL IFR CIG AND/OR VSBY WILL AFFECT TAF
SITES UNTIL 13Z...THEN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH INCREASING WEST
WINDS. AREA OF SCU/AC WITH UPR LVL ENERGY ALREADY MOVING INTO
COASTAL PLAINS...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THIS AFTN INTO
EVENING...THEN CLEARING OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL GUST TO
AROUND 20 KT DURING THE DAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS
LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. WESTERLY
WIND GUSTS AROUND 20KT WED AND THU AFTERNOONS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM MONDAY...WEST WINDS PREVAIL ON THE COASTAL WATERS AND
SOUNDS...WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS AT HATTERAS COAST
GUARD STATION AND DIAMOND SHOALS. SEAS CONTINUE QUITE ROUGH WITH
9-12 FEET OFFSHORE. PER LATEST 3-KM HRRR AND RAP MODELS...EXPECT
WINDS TO INCREASE A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS TREND IN THE FORECAST. WAVE MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE UNDERDONE BY 3-5 FT WITH LARGE DANGEROUS SWELL OVER
NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS...AND RELIED ON MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO FCST.
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BUT INCREASING WESTERLY
WINDS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED SEAS PERSISTING FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUE...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND
ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE WATERS FRI WITH WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING...WITH
WINDS LESS THAN 15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT. A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT AND
SEAS BUILDING TO 5-8FT. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 950 AM TUESDAY...LINGERING VERY LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED
WITH YESTERDAYS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
OUTER BANKS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SWELLS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE HIGH TIDES THIS MORNING WILL LEAD TO OCEAN OVERWASH AND
BEACH EROSION ESPECIALLY ALONG HATTERAS ISLAND. PORTIONS OF
HIGHWAY 12 IN THE USUAL VULNERABLE LOCATIONS COULD BECOME WATER
COVERED AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ104.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
941 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016
MAIN UPDATE LATE THIS EVENING WAS TO ADD A MENTION OF PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE BACK TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. LOWER LAYERS
HAVE BEEN MOISTENING UP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL. ALSO RECEIVED A REPORT OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AT
GRASSY BUTTE. LATEST RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
DRIZZLE MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS THIS AREA...BEFORE THE
ENTIRE COLUMN MOISTENS. THUS ADDED A MENTION BACK TO THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH 06Z AND THEN SHIFTED IT INTO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH 09Z.
TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE. ROLLA IN THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL HAS
DROPPED TO ZERO IN A SMALL CLEAR PATCH AND COULD DROP A FEW MORE
DEGREES. TREND THOUGH IS FOR STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES
AS CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT INTO
TODAY HAS MOVED WELL SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH
FROM MANITOBA INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA...WHILE A
LEE SIDE TROUGH IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CANADIAN
ROCKIES.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT AND
COMBINED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. UNTIL THEN...T/TD SPREAD REMAIN
PRETTY HIGH ACROSS THE WEST WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS OVER ALL BUT
THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. THUS THINK THE RISK OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVENING IS MINIMAL. AS WE HEAD INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN AND DRY LAYERS ALOFT...CONDUCIVE TO DRIZZLE QUICKLY MOISTEN
UP. THUS HAVE ALSO REMOVED THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WILL KEEP A MENTION OF FOG AS SURFACE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS
WE MOVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW/BOUNDARY STRETCHING THROUGH
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA WHILE HIGH
REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW
LINGERS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN UPPER JET STREAK WORKS ITS WAY OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY
LINGER OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED JET CONTINUES ON ITS WAY. CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...WHILE OVER THE SOUTHWEST LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME FOG WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
MAY DEVELOP. LATER TONIGHT BROAD SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION
RESULTING IN AN ELONGATED AREA OF MODEST LIFT OVER WESTERN PARTS
OF NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP AND
GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHERLY.
FOR THURSDAY...BROAD AREA OF MODEST LIFT SPREADS EASTERLY INTO
CENTRAL PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SNOW
SPREADING FROM WEST CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
STATE WHERE A BROAD SWATH OF 1 TO 3 INCHES MAY FALL. OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST...WARMER CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO PERIODS OF RAIN
DEVELOPING BY MID-DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
SEVERAL WAVES ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FIRST WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY. AS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE SHIFTS WEST...SNOW WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED...GENERALLY AROUND ONE INCH.
THE NEXT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT NORTH DAKOTA BEGINNING FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO THE REGION THAN PREVIOUS SYSTEMS
AS THIS WAVE WILL HAVE MORE OF A PACIFIC COMPONENT TO IT. WHILE
FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR TOO STRONG WITH THIS WAVE...PERSISTENT
LIGHT SNOW WITH BROAD SCALE LIFT OVER A 36 HOUR PERIOD COULD
BRING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INTO THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE. MODELS ARE JUST
BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM...SO DETAILS WILL BE FURTHER REFINED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AND AMOUNTS/PRECIP TYPE COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 932 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND SCATTERED IFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST TO
START THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT...EXPECT
IFR CEILINGS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...INCLUDING AT KISN...KDIK
AND KBIS. THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING (12Z-18Z)
THEN LIFTING TO MVFR AFTER 18Z THURSDAY. MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT MOVE
INTO KISN AND KDIK APPROX 12-18Z THURSDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1132 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE 3HR PRESSURE FALLS
ARE MAXIMIZED. VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN THIS AREA HAS RESULTED IN
CEILINGS UNIFORMLY AROUND 5000FT. NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM
SEEN TO FURTHER ENHANCE VERTICAL MOTION AND GENERATE PRECIPITATION
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE BOWMAN AND BISMARCK RADAR SHOW A DISTINCT
LINE OF WEAKENING ECHOES IN FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND WILL
MAINTAIN THIS THOUGHT.
LOOKING AHEAD...QUICK SCAN IN THE BUFKIT ANALYSIS AND 00Z NAM/GFS
MODEL SOLUTIONS...SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN GENERATING LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE WEST MID MORNING TUESDAY...THEN SPREADING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BY AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY. MOST PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
IN THE COLD SECTOR WITH A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN
THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL AWAIT POPS IN THE NEXT CYCLE
TO EVALUATE THIS THREAT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 920 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A BIT IN THE NORTHEAST BASED ON THE LATEST
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. ALSO DECIDED TO HOLD
OFF ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL 12Z TUESDAY DUE TO LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS. IN THE WEST A FLURRY OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...BUT
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE...DO NOT THINK THE CURRENT 0.5 DEGREE RADAR RETURNS FROM
KMBX ARE MAKING THEIR WAY TO THE GROUND. WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY
AND ADJUSTING ACCORDINGLY SHOULD THIS BECOME LESS CERTAIN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 542 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. LATE AFTERNOON 0.5 DEGREE
RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOWS A NARROW LINE OF ECHOES MOVING EAST
AND EXTENDING FROM TIOGA SOUTH TO DICKINSON AND HETTINGER AT 2330
UTC. HOWEVER...WE BELIEVE THE ECHOES REPRESENT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
AND NOT SURFACE PRECIPITATION GIVEN SUB-20 DBZ RETURNS BASED ABOVE
5000 FT AGL. IN FACT...POPS WERE REDUCED SLIGHTLY IN NORTHWEST ND
TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH 03 UTC GIVEN THE DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE TEENS F OVER MUCH OF WESTERN ND
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. RECENT OPERATIONAL HRRR SIMULATIONS ARE MORE
ROBUST WITH LIGHT SNOW IN WESTERN ND LATE TONIGHT THAN THE ESRL-
RUN EXPERIMENTAL HRRR...WHICH ALSO REPRESENTS UNCERTAINTY THAT IS
LIKELY RELATED TO THE DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND WEAK FORCING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
RIDGE RUNNING THROUGH THE WESTERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH LOW NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
WHILE FAST NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER OUR AREA.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER WILL
START THE EVENING WITH BREEZY WINDS DIMINISHING AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY RELAX OVER THE REGION. LATER THIS
EVENING WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT DEVELOPS RESULTING IN MODEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN LOCATIONS...BRINGING A
LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW.
ON TUESDAY...STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL BE SET UP OVER THE
AREA WITH TEENS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND
AROUND 40 OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST. MODEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN IN BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE SET UP OVER WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA. MOST AREAS MAY SEE SOME SNOW...BUT CHANCES
SWITCH TOWARDS RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST AS WARMER AIR TRIES
TO WORK EASTERLY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
A VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CARRY SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS
THESE WAVES APPROACH BRIEF PERIODS OF MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE FIRST SUCH WAVE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CLEARLY
SHOW A WARM LAYER ALOFT...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS AS TO JUST
HOW WARM THIS LAYER IS AND HOW FAR EAST IT WILL PUSH.
HOWEVER...THERE IS AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS BELOW FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE BEST FORCING AND WARM LAYER
ALOFT. AS PRECIPITATION PUSHES FURTHER EAST IT WILL ENCOUNTER
COOLER AIR BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE AND SHOULD TRANSITION OR
REMAIN ALL SNOW. EXACTLY WHERE THIS TRANSITION ZONE WILL SET UP
IS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
LIKELY BE VERY STEEP AND A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
COULD MEAN VERY DIFFERENT PRECIPITATION TYPES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
CIGS AROUND 5KFT TO BEGIN THIS TAF PERIOD...THEN TRENDING TO MVFR
IN THE WESTERN/NORTHERN TERMINALS OF KISN/KDIK/KMOT 15Z-17Z
TUESDAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AT KISN/KDIK DURING THE SAME TIME
PERIOD ABOVE RESULTING IN MVFR-IFR VSBYS. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR
AT KBIS BY 19Z WITH LIGHT SNOW FORECAST INTO KMOT/KBIS AROUND 00Z
WEDNESDAY. VSBYS WILL ALSO LOWER TO IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW. KJMS
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
228 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND ARE THICKER IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN TONIGHT,
BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FROM
FORMING IN THE SAME AREAS AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING
EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL OPEN UP THE DOOR FOR MORE
CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALSO A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THE FIRST FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. I SUSPECT THE THE MODELS, IN PARTICULAR THE NAM ARE TOO
BULLISH WITH THE QPF FIELDS ALONG THE COAST AND MAY ONLY BE THE
SACRIFICIAL LAMB. TYPICALLY WHEN FRONTS LIKE THIS RUN INTO A RIDGE
(ESPECIALLY ONE THAT IS RATHER STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR)
THEY TEND TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE, HENCE THE REASONING FOR KEEPING
POPS BELOW GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, THE OMEGA FIELDS ARE HIGHER AT THE
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD BE AN ARGUMENT FOR HIGHER
POPS. IT WILL BE INTERESTING WHAT THE HRRR SHOWS LATER THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT (CURRENT RUN ONLY GOES OUT TO 3AM PST). THE EVENING AND
NIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO REEVALUATE THIS AND INCREASE POPS ALONG THE
COAST FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING IF THERE`S STRONGER EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT
IT.
SHOWERS (IF WE GET ANY) ON WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
THE COAST. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH JUST OFF THE OREGON COAST. THE MODELS KEEP
MOST OF THE PRECIP OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING, THEN SHOWS SOME INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUSPECT THIS ALSO MAY BE OVERDONE. INSTABILITY
IS MARGINAL AT BEST AND THE TRIGGER IS WEAK OR NON- EXISTENT.
THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE`LL GET ANYTHING. SO WE`LL
KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW BUT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, LATER SHIFTS
WILL WANT TO REEVALUATE.
THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
EAST INTO THE AREA BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER ON FRIDAY, BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALL THE
PASSES. -PETRUCELLI
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A MORE WESTERLY JETSTREAM
WILL BRING A WARM FRONT INLAND ON SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 5500 FEET IN OREGON AND UP TO 7000 FEET IN
THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWS ARE IN A FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON OUR FORECAST AREA SEEING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
BY MONDAY HOWEVER BOTH MODELS STRENGTHENS THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE ON ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG AND ALLOWS SOME
OVERRUNNING. AS A RESULT WE ARE KEEPING MONDAY DRY BUT RE-INTRODUCE
CHANCE POPS FOR COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE WE MAY SHIFT BACK TO A WET PATTER AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. /FB
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 09/18Z TAF CYCLE...IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND WE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LIFT
TO VFR BY 20Z. OTHERWISE THE ATMOSPHERE IS DRIER TODAY AND WE CAN
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REST OF THE TAF AREA. IN SPITE OF
THE DRIER AIR...WE STILL EXPECT IFR CIGS TO RETURN TO THE ROSEBURG
AREA TONIGHT ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH SMALLER THAN IN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS. /FB
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 900 AM PST MON FEB 9 2016...A NARROW BAND OF 10 FT
SWELL IS MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FROM NORTH BEND SOUTH TO
AROUND PORT ORFORD. WE FEEL THAT THIS FEATURE IS TEMPORARY AS THE
WAVEWATCH BULLETIN SHOWS NO MAJOR SWELL TODAY, AND HAVE DECIDED TO
ISSUE A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THIS FEATURE. OTHERWISE
THE FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE MARINE AREA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH
THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY THEN DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES SHORE.
A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
WEEKEND WILL BRING OCCASIONAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INLAND THESE FRONTS WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS
IN MOVES THROUGH. IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL THIS WEEKEND BEFORE ANY FRONT
IS STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE MORE THAN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS.
A LONG PERIOD SWELL TRAIN UP TO 18 SECONDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A HIGH SURF CONDITION. /FB
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY
FOR PZZ370.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
917 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE
EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE NORTHWEST SNOWBELT
AND ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. AN ARCTIC BLAST WILL DELIVER THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND WITH DANGEROUS
COLD AND WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
IN THE NEAR TERM...OUR LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS HAS BEGUN
TO WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED...MORE OR LESS ALONG THE
LINES OF THE HIGH RES MESO MODELS. STILL LOOKING AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A QUICK COATING OF SNOW IN A FEW LOCATIONS AS THIS
FEATURE SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
FOR THE LARGER PICTURE...PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND
FREQUENT LES FROM MEANDERING SNOW BANDS ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES
WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES EVERY 4 TO 6 HOURS THROUGH
TONIGHT...THOUGH PORTIONS OF NW WARREN COUNTY COULD SEE NEARLY
DOUBLE THOSE SNOWFALL RATES.
THE WELL-ALIGNED SFC-800 MB FLOW FROM ABOUT 270 DEGREES...WILL
VEER TO ABOUT 295 DEG OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWINGS
SE THROUGH THE AREA.
BASED ON THE MODERATELY STRONG...WELL ALIGNED...AND PERSISTENT 280-290
DEG FLOW THROUGH ABOUT 04Z FRIDAY...WE EXTENDED THE WINTER WX AND
LES ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS OUT IN TIME THROUGH 03Z FRIDAY...AND
EXPANDED THE WINT WX ADVIS NORTH TO COVER ELK AND CLEARFIELD
COUNTIES.
LATER TONIGHT...LOOK FOR VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
FLURRIES ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER...WHILE A FEW
BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS IN NARROW NW-SE STREAMERS OFF LAKE ERIE COULD
ADD AN ADDITIONAL LIGHT COATING FROM KAOO TO KUNV.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM 5-10F ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MTNS...TO THE UPPER TEENS IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. WIND CHILLS COULD
DIP TO NEAR -10F AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN
MTNS...AND IN THE ZERO TO 10 ABOVE RANGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE
ZONES...BUT WILL BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEG F ABOVE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN ANY OF THESE LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT...MEAN BLYR FLOW FROM 280-290 DEGREES WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD STRATO CU WITH CLOUD TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENN
FALLING WITHIN THE FAVORABLE DGZ OF -12 TO -18C.
THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FLURRIES AND BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS FROM
NARROW...AND SLOWLY MEANDERING BANDS. MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND 3 KM NCAR ENSEMBLE WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
FORECASTING THE LOCATION...MVMT...AND SNOW FROM THESE FAIRLY WELL-
ORGANIZED BUT NARROW SNOW BANDS THAT WILL REACH INTO THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AT TIMES.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS OF A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS WHERE THE WINT WX AND LES ADVISORIES...AND LES WARNINGS
WILL CONTINUE.
MAX TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE ONLY 12-25F WHICH IS AROUND 15 DEG F
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE BULK OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS/LES SHOULD TAPER
OFF/LIFT TO THE NORTH...CLOSELY HUGGING THE I-90 CORRIDOR AS MEAN
BLYR WINDS BACK MORE TO THE WSW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS LIKELY WITH ARCTIC FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.
POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN US INTO NEXT WEEK. EMERGENCE OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW CREATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION MON-WED BUT WITH A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE. A PATTERN SHIFT TO PACIFIC ZONAL-TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH RISING/ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS IS FCST BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FAVORS A RETURN TO MILDER WEATHER.
LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON SUNDAY...AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE
FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
LIKELY WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ. VALLEY
TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA. WIND
CHILL HEADLINES ARE A GOOD BET AND PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE MADE NOW
TO PROTECT/PREPARE FOR THE UPCOMING COLD SNAP.
A MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD CONCERNING A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL EC
REMAINS MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS IN DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE AND HAS TRENDED EVEN FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH IS 10/12Z
RUN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW BUT THE SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL VFR CIGS AND VBSYS WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE OVERNIGHT. THE
TWO EXPECTATIONS ARE FIRST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW MTNS DUE TO
LAKE EFFECT AND TOPOGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. THESE WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT BFD...JST AND AOO WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND
VBSYS...HOWEVER WITH GUSTY WINDS IFR AT BFD AND JST AT TIMES IS
EXPECTED. THESE WILL SLOWLY FADE BY TOMORROW EVENING.
THE SECOND IS A LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT IS CAUSING TEMPORARY
IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. THE HRRR HAD IT
FADING HOWEVER IT IS PERSISTENT...THOUGH MOVING SLOWER THAN
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS OF IFR VSBYS AND CIGS AT UNV
AND IPT. IT COULD AFFECT JST AND AOO BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TIME
IT REACHES MDT AND LNS.
OUTLOOK...
THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR IN -SHSN ACROSS THE WRN
PENN MTNS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.
FRI...MVFR IN -SHSN...MAINLY LATE WITH STRONG COLD FRONT.
SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR OTHERWISE. WINDY.
SUN...MVFR IN -SHSN IN W MTNS EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.
MON...VFR POSSIBLE EARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PENN...THEN
LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUDS LIKELY WITH A FEW PERIODS OF SNOW
POSSIBLE...YIELDING MVFR TO IFR VSBYS AND CIGS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ010-
017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
845 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE
EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE NORTHWEST SNOWBELT
AND ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. AN ARCTIC BLAST WILL DELIVER THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND WITH DANGEROUS
COLD AND WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
IN THE NEAR TERM...WE ARE TRACKING A NARROW LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS
AND SQUALLS FROM TIOGA DOWN INTO CLEARFIELD COUNTIES. THE HRRR
SHOWS THIS BREAKING UP AS IT NEARS STATE COLLEGE. IN THE MEAN
TIME...A QUICK COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS VIZ DROPPING TO
NEAR ZERO WITH RAPIDLY DETERIORATING ROAD CONDITIONS.
FOR THE LARGER PICTURE...PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND
FREQUENT LES FROM MEANDERING SNOW BANDS ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES
WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES EVERY 4 TO 6 HOURS THROUGH
TONIGHT...THOUGH PORTIONS OF NW WARREN COUNTY COULD SEE NEARLY
DOUBLE THOSE SNOWFALL RATES.
THE WELL-ALIGNED SFC-800 MB FLOW FROM ABOUT 270 DEGREES...WILL
VEER TO ABOUT 295 DEG EARLY TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
SWINGS SE THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT COULD BRING A QUICK 1/2 INCH
ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 99/RT 22 CORRIDOR...WITH UP TO
ONE INCH ON THE HIGH TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
BASED ON THE MODERATELY STRONG...WELL ALIGNED...AND PERSISTENT 280-290
DEG FLOW THROUGH ABOUT 04Z FRIDAY...WE EXTENDED THE WINTER WX AND
LES ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS OUT IN TIME THROUGH 03Z FRIDAY...AND
EXPANDED THE WINT WX ADVIS NORTH TO COVER ELK AND CLEARFIELD
COUNTIES.
LATER TONIGHT...LOOK FOR VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
FLURRIES ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER...WHILE A FEW
BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS IN NARROW NW-SE STREAMERS OFF LAKE ERIE COULD
ADD AN ADDITIONAL LIGHT COATING FROM KAOO TO KUNV.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM 5-10F ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MTNS...TO THE UPPER TEENS IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. WIND CHILLS COULD
DIP TO NEAR -10F AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN
MTNS...AND IN THE ZERO TO 10 ABOVE RANGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE
ZONES...BUT WILL BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEG F ABOVE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN ANY OF THESE LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT...MEAN BLYR FLOW FROM 280-290 DEGREES WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD STRATO CU WITH CLOUD TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENN
FALLING WITHIN THE FAVORABLE DGZ OF -12 TO -18C.
THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FLURRIES AND BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS FROM
NARROW...AND SLOWLY MEANDERING BANDS. MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND 3 KM NCAR ENSEMBLE WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
FORECASTING THE LOCATION...MVMT...AND SNOW FROM THESE FAIRLY WELL-
ORGANIZED BUT NARROW SNOW BANDS THAT WILL REACH INTO THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AT TIMES.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS OF A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS WHERE THE WINT WX AND LES ADVISORIES...AND LES WARNINGS
WILL CONTINUE.
MAX TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE ONLY 12-25F WHICH IS AROUND 15 DEG F
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE BULK OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS/LES SHOULD TAPER
OFF/LIFT TO THE NORTH...CLOSELY HUGGING THE I-90 CORRIDOR AS MEAN
BLYR WINDS BACK MORE TO THE WSW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS LIKELY WITH ARCTIC FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.
POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN US INTO NEXT WEEK. EMERGENCE OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW CREATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION MON-WED BUT WITH A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE. A PATTERN SHIFT TO PACIFIC ZONAL-TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH RISING/ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS IS FCST BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FAVORS A RETURN TO MILDER WEATHER.
LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON SUNDAY...AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE
FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
LIKELY WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ. VALLEY
TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA. WIND
CHILL HEADLINES ARE A GOOD BET AND PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE MADE NOW
TO PROTECT/PREPARE FOR THE UPCOMING COLD SNAP.
A MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD CONCERNING A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL EC
REMAINS MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS IN DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE AND HAS TRENDED EVEN FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH IS 10/12Z
RUN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW BUT THE SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL VFR CIGS AND VBSYS WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE OVERNIGHT. THE
TWO EXPECTIONS ARE FIRST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW MTNS DUE TO
LAKE EFFECT AND TOPOGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. THESE WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT BFD...JST AND AOO WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND
VBSYS...HOWEVER WITH GUSTY WINDS IFR AT BFD AND JST AT TIMES IS
EXPECTED. THESE WILL SLOWLY FADE BY TOMORROW EVENING.
THE SECOND IS A LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT IS CAUSING TEMPORARY
IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. THE HRRR HAD IT
FADING HOWEVER IT IS PERSISTENT...THOUGH MOVING SLOWER THAN
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS OF IFR VSBYS AND CIGS AT UNV
AND IPT. IT COULD AFFECT JST AND AOO BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TIME
IT REACHES MDT AND LNS.
OUTLOOK...
THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR IN -SHSN ACROSS THE WRN
PENN MTNS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.
FRI...MVFR IN -SHSN...MAINLY LATE WITH STRONG COLD FRONT.
SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR OTHERWISE. WINDY.
SUN...MVFR IN -SHSN IN W MTNS EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.
MON...VFR POSSIBLE EARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PENN...THEN
LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUDS LIKELY WITH A FEW PERIODS OF SNOW
POSSIBLE...YIELDING MVFR TO IFR VSBYS AND CIGS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ010-
017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
643 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE
EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE NORTHWEST SNOWBELT
AND ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. AN ARCTIC BLAST WILL DELIVER THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND WITH DANGEROUS
COLD AND WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
IN THE NEAR TERM...WE ARE TRACKING A NARROW LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS
AND SQUALLS FROM TIOGA DOWN INTO CLEARFIELD COUNTIES. THE HRRR
SHOWS THIS BREAKING UP AS IT NEARS STATE COLLEGE. IN THE MEAN
TIME...A QUICK COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS VIZ DROPPING TO
NEAR ZERO WITH RAPIDLY DETERIORATING ROAD CONDITIONS.
FOR THE LARGER PICTURE...PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND
FREQUENT LES FROM MEANDERING SNOW BANDS ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES
WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES EVERY 4 TO 6 HOURS THROUGH
TONIGHT...THOUGH PORTIONS OF NW WARREN COUNTY COULD SEE NEARLY
DOUBLE THOSE SNOWFALL RATES.
THE WELL-ALIGNED SFC-800 MB FLOW FROM ABOUT 270 DEGREES...WILL
VEER TO ABOUT 295 DEG EARLY TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
SWINGS SE THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT COULD BRING A QUICK 1/2 INCH
ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 99/RT 22 CORRIDOR...WITH UP TO
ONE INCH ON THE HIGH TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
BASED ON THE MODERATELY STRONG...WELL ALIGNED...AND PERSISTENT 280-290
DEG FLOW THROUGH ABOUT 04Z FRIDAY...WE EXTENDED THE WINTER WX AND
LES ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS OUT IN TIME THROUGH 03Z FRIDAY...AND
EXPANDED THE WINT WX ADVIS NORTH TO COVER ELK AND CLEARFIELD
COUNTIES.
LATER TONIGHT...LOOK FOR VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
FLURRIES ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER...WHILE A FEW
BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS IN NARROW NW-SE STREAMERS OFF LAKE ERIE COULD
ADD AN ADDITIONAL LIGHT COATING FROM KAOO TO KUNV.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM 5-10F ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MTNS...TO THE UPPER TEENS IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. WIND CHILLS COULD
DIP TO NEAR -10F AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN
MTNS...AND IN THE ZERO TO 10 ABOVE RANGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE
ZONES...BUT WILL BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEG F ABOVE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN ANY OF THESE LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT...MEAN BLYR FLOW FROM 280-290 DEGREES WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD STRATO CU WITH CLOUD TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENN
FALLING WITHIN THE FAVORABLE DGZ OF -12 TO -18C.
THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FLURRIES AND BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS FROM
NARROW...AND SLOWLY MEANDERING BANDS. MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND 3 KM NCAR ENSEMBLE WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
FORECASTING THE LOCATION...MVMT...AND SNOW FROM THESE FAIRLY WELL-
ORGANIZED BUT NARROW SNOW BANDS THAT WILL REACH INTO THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AT TIMES.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS OF A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS WHERE THE WINT WX AND LES ADVISORIES...AND LES WARNINGS
WILL CONTINUE.
MAX TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE ONLY 12-25F WHICH IS AROUND 15 DEG F
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE BULK OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS/LES SHOULD TAPER
OFF/LIFT TO THE NORTH...CLOSELY HUGGING THE I-90 CORRIDOR AS MEAN
BLYR WINDS BACK MORE TO THE WSW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS LIKELY WITH ARCTIC FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.
POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN US INTO NEXT WEEK. EMERGENCE OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW CREATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION MON-WED BUT WITH A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE. A PATTERN SHIFT TO PACIFIC ZONAL-TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH RISING/ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS IS FCST BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FAVORS A RETURN TO MILDER WEATHER.
LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON SUNDAY...AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE
FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
LIKELY WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ. VALLEY
TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA. WIND
CHILL HEADLINES ARE A GOOD BET AND PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE MADE NOW
TO PROTECT/PREPARE FOR THE UPCOMING COLD SNAP.
A MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD CONCERNING A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL EC
REMAINS MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS IN DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE AND HAS TRENDED EVEN FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH IS 10/12Z
RUN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW BUT THE SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TAF
SITES /KIPT...KMDT AND KLNS/ WITH HIGH END MVFR CIGS AND VFR TO
MVFR VSBYS AT KUNV AND KAOO.
THE POOREST FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT KJST AND
KBFD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHERE CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE MVFR TO UPPER IFR RANGE...WITH OCNL DIPS TO
LIFR/VLIFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS AND AREAS OF ENHANCED UPSLOPE
SNOWS.
FOR KUNV...KAOO...AND PERHAPS KIPT...EXPECT UP TO A FEW HOUR
PERIOD OF MORE FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS LATE TODAY AND AFTER
SUNSET...AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
GUSTY WEST TO WNW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND
AND THURSDAY...AVERAGING 12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS IN THE LOW-MID 20
KT RANGE.
OUTLOOK...
THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR IN -SHSN ACROSS THE WRN
PENN MTNS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.
FRI...MVFR IN -SHSN...MAINLY LATE WITH STRONG COLD FRONT.
SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR OTHERWISE. WINDY.
SUN...MVFR IN -SHSN IN W MTNS EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.
MON...VFR POSSIBLE EARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PENN...THEN
LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUDS LIKELY WITH A FEW PERIODS OF SNOW
POSSIBLE...YIELDING MVFR TO IFR VSBYS AND CIGS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ010-
017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
315 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ONGOING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
TRANSITION INTO A LONG WAVE TROUGH. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW FOR MID-WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND...WHERE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE FAVORED
NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND
LAURELS. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE WINTER IS POISED TO BRING
FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE LOWER SUSQ /MAINLY
EAST OF THE RIVER AT 20Z/ WHERE RATES IN HIGHEST RADAR RETURNS
ARE RUNNING AROUND A HALF TO AN INCH/HOUR. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING AS AREA OF SNOW
LIFTS EASTWARD...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMS LINGERING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS WARNINGS/ADVISORIES EXPIRE.
ELSEWHERE...FOCUS OVER NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE ON A N/S ORIENTED
BAND DROPPING OFF THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE CENTRAL
MTNS. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE...AND
IT LOOKS INTENSE ENOUGH TO BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS IT PASSES.
OVER THE LAURELS...PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY ACCUMULATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT IN UPSLOPE FLOW.
TEMPS BASICALLY REMAIN STEADY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 20S THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW WILL BE FILLING AND LOSING IT/S CLOSED CONTOURS...
BECOMING A LONG WAVE TROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST
OF CENTRAL PA BY MIDNIGHT.
THINGS THEN TRANSITION TO A PLAIN-OLD UPSLOPE SNOW SITUATION FOR
THE LAURELS AND NW MTNS. A LM CONNECTION DEVELOPS UNDER HIGHLY-
FAVORABLE TEMPERATURES/CONDITIONS. THE AIR DOES DRY OUT ON THE
WHOLE...SO MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE THAN
FLURRIES. DOWNSLOPE MAY ALLOW THE SE TO GET A DEG OR TWO WARMER
THAN TODAY. THE LAKE EFFECT IN THE NW WILL BE RAMPING UP...BUT THE
STACKED WEST WIND PROFILE FAVORS WRN NY STATE THAN NW PA. OF
COURSE...THE COLD AIR WILL LIKELY EXTEND SOME BANDS INTO WARREN
CO...AND HAVE COORDINATED TIMING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR MAINLY NW WARREN COUNTY. ADVISORY CONTINUES
FOR THE LAURELS WHERE THE SNOW WILL NEVER REALLY TAKE A BREAK.
THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER OUT IN TIME TO COVER END OF
POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT BANDS.
TEMPS DROP OFF QUITE QUICKLY LATE WED AS REGION RECEIVES A
GLANCING BLOW OF -20C 850MB AIR. MINS MAY GET INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ON THE HILL TOPS OF THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS AS WIND
CHILLS GO BELOW ZERO IN A STIFF BREEZE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE WITH ARCTIC
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY; FRIGID TEMPERATURES/DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.
POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE FIRST SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.
THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM AROUND 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ.
VALLEY TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.
A SLOW MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WITH A POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING/WAA TYPE SNOW EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD...ESP SOUTH OF
I-80...AS LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON.
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY TO VSBY...AS SNOW
TAPERS TO FLURRIES. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT
AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES A BIT OVERNIGHT CIGS WILL IMPROVE AS
WELL IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. LOWER SUSQ WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
WITH CENTRAL MTNS HOLDING ON TO AN MVFR DECK. WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES IN THE AIR WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW KEEPING MAINLY IFR CIGS IN PLACE.
OUTLOOK...
WED...MAINLY IFR IN SNOW WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS
CENTRAL/EAST.
THU-SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.
SUN...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ025>028-034>036-056>059-063.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ024-
033.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ064>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
145 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG-DURATION PERIOD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATION FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW
FROM MID WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF
THE WINTER IS POISED TO BRING FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
1230 AM UPDATE...
JUST A COATING SO FAR...BUT IT IS JUST THE BEGINNING. BOTH MDT
AND IPT CAME IN WITH 0.2IN OF SF AT MIDNIGHT. WEBCAMS PLAY UP A
BIT MORE SNOW OVER THE LAURELS...BUT MOST PLACES DRY OR JUST WET
ROADS AT THIS POINT. IT JUST SKIPPED RIGHT OVER HAPPY VALLEY. HRRR
AND RUC INDICATE THAT A WEAK TROUGH FORMS TO THE E OF UNV AND AOO
AND FOCUS THE LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE MID-LOWER SUSQ THROUGH THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. SLUG OF PRECIP MOVING UP FROM CENTRAL MD...SHOULD
RISE INTO THE SRN TIER/FAR LOWER SUSQ IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS.
STILL...SF RATES WILL LIKELY NOT GET TO INCH/HR RATES OVERNIGHT.
PREV...
03Z RADAR LOOP SHOWS SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD NEARLY ALL
OF CENTRAL PA AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
LACK OF SIG MOISTURE OVER THE REGION /SATL DERIVED PWATS ONLY NR
SEASONAL AVG/ AND EXPECTATION THAT WEAKENING SHORTWAVE WILL PASS
NE OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z...BOTH POINT TOWARD ONLY LIGHT PRECIP
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...MARGINAL BLYR TEMPS MAY RESULT IN AN
INITIAL PERIOD OF LGT RAIN OVR THE LOWER ELEVS OF SOUTHERN PA AND
COULD LIMIT SNOW ACCUMS THEREAFTER. WEB CAMS ACROSS THE SUSQ
VALLEY INDICATING ONLY WET ROADS AT 03Z.
FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW ACCUM
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA BY DAWN. HOWEVER...GIVEN LIGHT SNOW
RATES AND TEMPS AOA FREEZING...DON/T ANTICIPATE BIG TRAVEL
PROBLEMS FOR THE AM COMMUTE. BLEND OF LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS
TOWARD OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS IN THE U20S- L30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER DISCUSSION WITH PHI AND LWX...ALONG WITH NEW WPC
GRAPHICS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN PA
AND A WARNING FOR THE ADAMS/YORK/LANCASTER...WHERE WPC GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS TOTALS TO ARND 6 INCHES BY TUES NIGHT.
AFTER A LULL IN THE LGT SNOW EARLY TUE AM...SECOND SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF UPPER LOW OVR THE GRT LKS WILL APPROACH BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY...PRODUCING A STEADIER LIGHT SNOW ALONG NEG TILTED
INVERTED SFC TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOC PLUME OF HIGHER PWATS OVR
CENTRAL PA. BEST LG SCALE FORCING...AS INFERRED BY MDL 500-300MB
QVEC CONV FIELDS...WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN PA...WHERE MDL
BLENDED QPF SUPPORTS SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUM BTWN
MIDDAY TUES AND LATE TUES EVENING. MARGINAL BLYR TEMPS MAY
CONTINUE TO HINDER SNOW ACCUMS IN THE VALLEYS...AS NCAR MESO
ENSEMBLE AND SPC SSEO BOTH SUGGEST. SO...CONFIDENCE IN WARNING
TYPE SNOW IN THE POPULATION CENTERS OF SE PA IS NOT NEARLY AS HIGH
AS FOR THE RIDGETOP LOCATIONS. OTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS THAT
LIGHT SNOW FALLING WITH SFC TEMPS AOA FREEZING DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A GOOD DEAL OF MELTING ON ROAD SURFACES
AND COULD POTENTIALLY MAKE THIS A RELATIVELY LOW IMPACT
ADVISORY/WARNING.
EXPECT A TRANSITION TOWARD A LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW PATTERN
LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS INVERTED SFC TROUGH
LIFTS NE AND BLYR FLOW TURNS TO THE WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT AND
UPSLOPE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY-SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY FRIGID
TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES
WEEKEND.
ANOMALOUS WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY
KEEP THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION INTACT INTO NEXT WEEK BUT AT A
DECREASING AMPLITUDE.
AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A POLAR
VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS HUDSON BAY INTO SE CANADA. COLD AIR
WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE WEEK...REINFORCED
INITIALLY BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE IN A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION/COLD OUTBREAK
FOR VALENTINE`S WEEKEND.
LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOWS FOR SEVERAL DAYS THU-SAT WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL LGT-MDT ACCUMULATION OVER THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS. A NEW ELEMENT IN THE FCST IS DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY.
AT THIS TIME THE 08/00Z ECMWF LIES ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FCST COLD PATTERN/WELL-BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
WINTER APPEARS POISED TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND WITH GFS/EC BOTH
BRINGING -30C AIR AT 850MB INTO PA.
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE PROBABLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES +/- ZERO ARE FCST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
A STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND 1040+MB ARCTIC HIGH DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS -10F TO -25F
DEGREES BELOW ZERO.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW STILL REAL PATCHY.
06Z TAFS SENT.
WILL ADJUST AS NEEDED.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
FIRST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS NOW WORKING INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
WHILE OVERALL FORECAST CALLS FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST...THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE STEADY
SNOW IS THE CHALLENGING ASPECT OF THIS FORECAST. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO VARY FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION...LIKELY SWITCHING FROM VFR TO MVFR AND THEN BACK
AGAIN TO IFR. THIS THINKING IS DIFFICULT TO TRANSLATE INTO THE
TAFS. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH PREVAILING AREAS OF STEADY
SNOW...WITH LOWERING CONDITIONS...BUT REALIZING THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGH VARIABILITY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE EVENING.
IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD IN WIDESPREAD SNOW. SOME AREAS OF LIFR MAY DEVELOP
IN BANDING OF HEAVIER SNOW...BUT DIFFICULT TO PUT IN AN EXACT
LOCATION AT THIS TIME.
THE COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD... BUT
MAINLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE BREAKS FROM TIME TO
TIME...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THAT PERIOD.
LOOKING AHEAD...SNOW SHOWERS BECOME MORE CONFINED TO WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN MID/LATE WEEK AS SHOT OF QUITE COLD AIR ARRIVES ON
NW FLOW.
OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING. LOCALIZED LIFR POSSIBLE.
WED...MAINLY IFR IN SNOW WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS
CENTRAL/EAST.
THU-SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ024-
033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ025>028-034>036-056-057-059-063.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ064>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG/GARTNER/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1233 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG-DURATION PERIOD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATION FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW
FROM MID WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF
THE WINTER IS POISED TO BRING FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
1230 AM UPDATE...
JUST A COATING SO FAR...BUT IT IS JUST THE BEGINNING. BOTH MDT
AND IPT CAME IN WITH 0.2IN OF SF AT MIDNIGHT. WEBCAMS PLAY UP A
BIT MORE SNOW OVER THE LAURELS...BUT MOST PLACES DRY OR JUST WET
ROADS AT THIS POINT. IT JUST SKIPPED RIGHT OVER HAPPY VALLEY. HRRR
AND RUC INDICATE THAT A WEAK TROUGH FORMS TO THE E OF UNV AND AOO
AND FOCUS THE LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE MID-LOWER SUSQ THROUGH THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. SLUG OF PRECIP MOVING UP FROM CENTRAL MD...SHOULD
RISE INTO THE SRN TIER/FAR LOWER SUSQ IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS.
STILL...SF RATES WILL LIKELY NOT GET TO INCH/HR RATES OVERNIGHT.
PREV...
03Z RADAR LOOP SHOWS SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD NEARLY ALL
OF CENTRAL PA AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
LACK OF SIG MOISTURE OVER THE REGION /SATL DERIVED PWATS ONLY NR
SEASONAL AVG/ AND EXPECTATION THAT WEAKENING SHORTWAVE WILL PASS
NE OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z...BOTH POINT TOWARD ONLY LIGHT PRECIP
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...MARGINAL BLYR TEMPS MAY RESULT IN AN
INITIAL PERIOD OF LGT RAIN OVR THE LOWER ELEVS OF SOUTHERN PA AND
COULD LIMIT SNOW ACCUMS THEREAFTER. WEB CAMS ACROSS THE SUSQ
VALLEY INDICATING ONLY WET ROADS AT 03Z.
FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW ACCUM
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA BY DAWN. HOWEVER...GIVEN LIGHT SNOW
RATES AND TEMPS AOA FREEZING...DON/T ANTICIPATE BIG TRAVEL
PROBLEMS FOR THE AM COMMUTE. BLEND OF LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS
TOWARD OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS IN THE U20S- L30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER DISCUSSION WITH PHI AND LWX...ALONG WITH NEW WPC
GRAPHICS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN PA
AND A WARNING FOR THE ADAMS/YORK/LANCASTER...WHERE WPC GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS TOTALS TO ARND 6 INCHES BY TUES NIGHT.
AFTER A LULL IN THE LGT SNOW EARLY TUE AM...SECOND SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF UPPER LOW OVR THE GRT LKS WILL APPROACH BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY...PRODUCING A STEADIER LIGHT SNOW ALONG NEG TILTED
INVERTED SFC TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOC PLUME OF HIGHER PWATS OVR
CENTRAL PA. BEST LG SCALE FORCING...AS INFERRED BY MDL 500-300MB
QVEC CONV FIELDS...WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN PA...WHERE MDL
BLENDED QPF SUPPORTS SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUM BTWN
MIDDAY TUES AND LATE TUES EVENING. MARGINAL BLYR TEMPS MAY
CONTINUE TO HINDER SNOW ACCUMS IN THE VALLEYS...AS NCAR MESO
ENSEMBLE AND SPC SSEO BOTH SUGGEST. SO...CONFIDENCE IN WARNING
TYPE SNOW IN THE POPULATION CENTERS OF SE PA IS NOT NEARLY AS HIGH
AS FOR THE RIDGETOP LOCATIONS. OTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS THAT
LIGHT SNOW FALLING WITH SFC TEMPS AOA FREEZING DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A GOOD DEAL OF MELTING ON ROAD SURFACES
AND COULD POTENTIALLY MAKE THIS A RELATIVELY LOW IMPACT
ADVISORY/WARNING.
EXPECT A TRANSITION TOWARD A LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW PATTERN
LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS INVERTED SFC TROUGH
LIFTS NE AND BLYR FLOW TURNS TO THE WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT AND
UPSLOPE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY-SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY FRIGID
TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES
WEEKEND.
ANOMALOUS WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY
KEEP THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION INTACT INTO NEXT WEEK BUT AT A
DECREASING AMPLITUDE.
AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A POLAR
VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS HUDSON BAY INTO SE CANADA. COLD AIR
WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE WEEK...REINFORCED
INITIALLY BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE IN A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION/COLD OUTBREAK
FOR VALENTINE`S WEEKEND.
LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOWS FOR SEVERAL DAYS THU-SAT WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL LGT-MDT ACCUMULATION OVER THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS. A NEW ELEMENT IN THE FCST IS DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY.
AT THIS TIME THE 08/00Z ECMWF LIES ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FCST COLD PATTERN/WELL-BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
WINTER APPEARS POISED TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND WITH GFS/EC BOTH
BRINGING -30C AIR AT 850MB INTO PA.
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE PROBABLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES +/- ZERO ARE FCST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
A STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND 1040+MB ARCTIC HIGH DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS -10F TO -25F
DEGREES BELOW ZERO.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FIRST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS NOW WORKING INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
WHILE OVERALL FORECAST CALLS FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST...THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE STEADY
SNOW IS THE CHALLENGING ASPECT OF THIS FORECAST. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO VARY FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION...LIKELY SWITCHING FROM VFR TO MVFR AND THEN BACK
AGAIN TO IFR. THIS THINKING IS DIFFICULT TO TRANSLATE INTO THE
TAFS. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH PREVAILING AREAS OF STEADY
SNOW...WITH LOWERING CONDITIONS...BUT REALIZING THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGH VARIABILITY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE EVENING.
IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD IN WIDESPREAD SNOW. SOME AREAS OF LIFR MAY DEVELOP
IN BANDING OF HEAVIER SNOW...BUT DIFFICULT TO PUT IN AN EXACT
LOCATION AT THIS TIME.
THE COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD... BUT
MAINLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE BREAKS FROM TIME TO
TIME...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THAT PERIOD.
LOOKING AHEAD...SNOW SHOWERS BECOME MORE CONFINED TO WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN MID/LATE WEEK AS SHOT OF QUITE COLD AIR ARRIVES ON
NW FLOW.
OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING. LOCALIZED LIFR POSSIBLE.
WED...MAINLY IFR IN SNOW WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS
CENTRAL/EAST.
THU-SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ024-
033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ025>028-034>036-056-057-059-063.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ064>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1120 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRAVEL ACROSS THE
CWA THIS EVENING. GETTING REPORTS OF A TRACE UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES
SO FAR AS WELL AS SOME SLICK ROADS DUE TO TEMPS FALLING BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA. UPGRADED A FEW MORE COUNTIES ALONG THE
I65/I24 CORRIDOR NORTH OF NASHVILLE TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
EARLIER THIS EVENING AS ADDITIONAL SNOW HAS CAUSED TRAVEL IMPACTS.
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING...WET ROADS WILL BECOME
ICY AND LOOK TO IMPACT MORNING TRAVEL IN THE ADVISORY COUNTIES.
THE HRRR AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS DRAG ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BUT THEY DO APPEAR
WEAKER THAN WHAT THE AREA HAS SEEN SO FAR. KEPT THE FORECAST
MAINLY AS IT WAS...WITH MINOR TWEAKS TO CURRENT OBS AND UPDATED
MODEL TRENDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS TO BETTER MATCH
THE SHORT TERM MODELS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE REST OF THE FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS KEEPING SNOW
SHOWERS ONGOING IN SOME FASHION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CEILINGS AND VISIBLITIES WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE DURING THIS PERIOD
SO AVIATION INTERESTS NEED TO BE AWARE OF SUDDEN CHANGES ON
LANDINGS AND TAKEOFFS.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR CHEATHAM-
CLAY-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-DE KALB-FENTRESS-GRUNDY-JACKSON-MACON-
MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-SMITH-SUMNER-
TROUSDALE-VAN BUREN-WARREN-WHITE-WILSON.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........01/BOYD
LONG TERM..................06/BARNWELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1156 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW NEAR 20 KNOT LOWER LEVEL NORTHERLIES TO
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN GUST THIS AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT LIGHT WINDS WILL GO VARIABLE FOR A
GOOD PART OF WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF...WITH LOWERING RED RIVER VALLEY SURFACE PRESSURE...
WILL BACK WINDS MORE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...
LOW RH VALUES AND MARGINALLY STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS OVER THE NE HALF OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY GUST
OVER 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON SO FEEL ITS BEST TO ISSUE ANOTHER RED
FLAG WARNING. WINDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH BUT GROUND FUELS ARE DRY AND RH VALUES NEAR
15 PERCENT WILL STILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDS FOR RAPID FIRE
GROWTH. 31/43
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/
.ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY...
DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BRING CLEAR
SKIES...VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION
TODAY. AT 1000 AM...SFC DEW PTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE TEENS (9 DEGREES AT KRWV AND 11 DEGREES AT KHOU/KLVJ).
LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE HRRR FOR DEW POINTS TODAY WHICH SHOWS A
MINIMUM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME MINOR RECOVERY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MIN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20
PERCENT TODAY. 12 SOUNDINGS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER
50S OVER THE NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 60S TO THE SOUTHWEST. MADE
MINOR TWEAKS TO MAX TEMP GRIDS. CIRRUS NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA
AND TRENDED SKY COVER TO CLEAR. 12Z SHV/LCH SOUNDING SHOWS 45 KNOT
WINDS AT 2000 FEET BUT THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING ONLY SHOWS 15 KNOTS AT
2000 FEET SO STRONGER WINDS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES TODAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE WEST. AT THIS TIME...WIND
SPEEDS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA BUT IF WIND
SPEEDS INCREASE MORE THAN FCST...A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE
REQUIRED. 43
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/
AVIATION...
VFR. NW WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS...
DECREASING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
COMING AROUND TO THE SE AND S DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND INCREASING
TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS. 42
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...
IR SAT SHOWING SOME CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS COASTAL AREAS.
ELSEWHERE...IT IS CLEAR. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID
30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS...SO WE WILL SEE A COLD START TO
THE DAY. DW PTS RANGE FROM NEAR 30 COASTAL SOUTHWEST TO THE TEENS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. WITH MIXING LATER TODAY...WILL SEE LOW RH`S
FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
A GRADUAL WARM UP IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE CURRENT
AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND RESULTS IN MID/UPPER HEIGHTS RISING AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN WED NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NE ON SATURDAY AND IT WILL LIKELY
STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SE TX ON SAT NIGHT. THIS
WEAKENING BOUNDARY AND AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER TROF WILL PRODUCE
A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN ON SUN/MON. 33
MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO COME DOWN...BUT WILL KEEP THE
CAUTION FLAGS IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND ADVISORIES IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 AM. LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 63 40 69 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 63 41 69 51 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 60 48 63 56 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...GM...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES THROUGH 6 PM CST.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1148 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...
LOW RH VALUES AND MARGINALLY STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS OVER THE NE HALF OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY GUST
OVER 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON SO FEEL ITS BEST TO ISSUE ANOTHER RED
FLAG WARNING. WINDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH BUT GROUND FUELS ARE DRY AND RH VALUES NEAR
15 PERCENT WILL STILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDS FOR RAPID FIRE
GROWTH. 31/43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/
..ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY...
DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BRING CLEAR
SKIES...VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION
TODAY. AT 1000 AM...SFC DEW PTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE TEENS (9 DEGREES AT KRWV AND 11 DEGREES AT KHOU/KLVJ).
LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE HRRR FOR DEW POINTS TODAY WHICH SHOWS A
MINIMUM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME MINOR RECOVERY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MIN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20
PERCENT TODAY. 12 SOUNDINGS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER
50S OVER THE NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 60S TO THE SOUTHWEST. MADE
MINOR TWEAKS TO MAX TEMP GRIDS. CIRRUS NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA
AND TRENDED SKY COVER TO CLEAR. 12Z SHV/LCH SOUNDING SHOWS 45 KNOT
WINDS AT 2000 FEET BUT THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING ONLY SHOWS 15 KNOTS AT
2000 FEET SO STRONGER WINDS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES TODAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE WEST. AT THIS TIME...WIND
SPEEDS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA BUT IF WIND
SPEEDS INCREASE MORE THAN FCST...A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE
REQUIRED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/
AVIATION...
VFR. NW WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS...
DECREASING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
COMING AROUND TO THE SE AND S DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND INCREASING
TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS. 42
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...
IR SAT SHOWING SOME CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS COASTAL AREAS.
ELSEWHERE...IT IS CLEAR. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID
30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS...SO WE WILL SEE A COLD START TO
THE DAY. DW PTS RANGE FROM NEAR 30 COASTAL SOUTHWEST TO THE TEENS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. WITH MIXING LATER TODAY...WILL SEE LOW RH`S
FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE CURRENT
AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND RESULTS IN MID/UPPER HEIGHTS RISING AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN WED NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NE ON SATURDAY AND IT WILL LIKELY
STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SE TX ON SAT NIGHT. THIS
WEAKENING BOUNDARY AND AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER TROF WILL PRODUCE
A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN ON SUN/MON. 33
MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO COME DOWN...BUT WILL KEEP THE
CAUTION FLAGS IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND ADVISORIES IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 AM. LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD. 42
FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
VERY LOW TODAY BUT WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE
YESTERDAY. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...IT WILL ONLY TAKE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO
PLACE US BACK INTO WARNING LEVELS. WE WILL BE WATCHING THIS
CLOSELY. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 63 40 69 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 63 41 69 51 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 60 48 63 56 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-
BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-
WASHINGTON-WHARTON.
GM...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GALVESTON
BAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1007 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY...
.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BRING CLEAR
SKIES...VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION
TODAY. AT 1000 AM...SFC DEW PTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE TEENS (9 DEGREES AT KRWV AND 11 DEGREES AT KHOU/KLVJ).
LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE HRRR FOR DEW POINTS TODAY WHICH SHOWS A
MINIMUM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME MINOR RECOVERY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MIN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20
PERCENT TODAY. 12 SOUNDINGS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER
50S OVER THE NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 60S TO THE SOUTHWEST. MADE
MINOR TWEAKS TO MAX TEMP GRIDS. CIRRUS NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA
AND TRENDED SKY COVER TO CLEAR. 12Z SHV/LCH SOUNDING SHOWS 45 KNOT
WINDS AT 2000 FEET BUT THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING ONLY SHOWS 15 KNOTS AT
2000 FEET SO STRONGER WINDS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES TODAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE WEST. AT THIS TIME...WIND
SPEEDS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA BUT IF WIND
SPEEDS INCREASE MORE THAN FCST...A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE
REQUIRED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/
AVIATION...
VFR. NW WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS...
DECREASING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
COMING AROUND TO THE SE AND S DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND INCREASING
TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS. 42
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...
IR SAT SHOWING SOME CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS COASTAL AREAS.
ELSEWHERE...IT IS CLEAR. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID
30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS...SO WE WILL SEE A COLD START TO
THE DAY. DW PTS RANGE FROM NEAR 30 COASTAL SOUTHWEST TO THE TEENS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. WITH MIXING LATER TODAY...WILL SEE LOW RH`S
FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE CURRENT
AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND RESULTS IN MID/UPPER HEIGHTS RISING AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN WED NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NE ON SATURDAY AND IT WILL LIKELY
STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SE TX ON SAT NIGHT. THIS
WEAKENING BOUNDARY AND AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER TROF WILL PRODUCE
A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN ON SUN/MON. 33
MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO COME DOWN...BUT WILL KEEP THE
CAUTION FLAGS IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND ADVISORIES IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 AM. LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD. 42
FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
VERY LOW TODAY BUT WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE
YESTERDAY. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...IT WILL ONLY TAKE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO
PLACE US BACK INTO WARNING LEVELS. WE WILL BE WATCHING THIS
CLOSELY. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 63 40 69 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 63 41 69 51 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 60 48 63 56 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1152 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG CYCLONE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SINK
SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CUTOFF AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE COLDEST OF THE AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL TUESDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE WEEK RESULTING IN A PROLONGED SNOW SHOWER
EVENT ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1140 PM EST MONDAY...
HIGH-RES MODELS ESPECIALLY THE RAP13 SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE
ON THE SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SW VA/NW NC ATTM. SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER PER MESOANALYSIS OFF THE RAP INDICATES MOISTURE AND LOW
LVL INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE ANY SNOW THAT MOVES ACROSS SW VA/NW NC
AND SRN WV THROUGH 06Z. SHOULD PICK UP ANOTHER INCH OR SO BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 2AM...THEN A LULL THEN BETTER UPPER VORT MOVES ACROSS
BY 12Z...WHICH SHOULD BRING ANOTHER AREA OF ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE WRN SLOPES. NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE WINTER WX
HEADLINES. BLOWING SNOW APPEARS TO BECOME AN ISSUE TUESDAY WITH
WINDS PICKING UP BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE.
PREVIOUS MID EVENING DISCUSSION...
TRANSITIONING MORE TOWARD UPSLOPE REGIME AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
NIGHT. BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW FADING ACROSS ROCKBRIDGE/BATH COUNTY
ATTM. UPSTREAM...SNOW SHOWERS ARE SCATTERED FROM THE KY/VA BORDER
INTO PORTIONS OF NE TN...AND ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU OF TN
NEAR I-75. MODELS FAVOR THE NEXT ROUND REACHING SRN WV INTO FAR
NW NC BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1 AM. THIS WILL BE PUTTING DOWN ANOTHER
INCH OF SNOW...WITH POTENTIALLY HIGHER ON THE RIDGES. MESOANALYSIS
STILL SHOWING SOME FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH RESPECT TO HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NC/TN BORDER...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
CONDITIONS FOR INCREASE IN SNOW AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE...EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR UP SOME BEFORE NW FLOW
INCREASES BRINGING MORE CLOUDS IN LATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARL EVENING...
FOCUS IS ON TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW IN THE WEST...BUT OVERALL
RADAR COVERAGE IS MORE SCATTERED THAN CATEGORICAL IN TERMS OF
POPS. WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO THE 22Z HRRR AND 18Z LOCAL WRF AS IT
SLIDES A NARROW BAND OF SNOW ACROSS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
SHENANDOAH VLY AND BLUE RIDGE NORTH OF CARROLL COUNTY VA THROUGH
EVENING. THERE IS SOME GOOD REFLECTIVITY SIGNATURES AND WITH
COLDER AIR ALOFT WE HAVE HAD SOME THUNDERSNOW REPORTS. SOME AREAS
COULD SEE A GOOD 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IN A 1 HOUR PERIOD AND AN SPS
WILL COVER THIS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
ONCE THIS MESOLOW ALONG THE FRONT OVER SW VA MOVES EAST
EXPECT A DRIER PERIOD BUT UPSLOPE KICKS IN.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY AFTERNOON...
TODAY`S PRECIPITATION DID NOT START UNTIL LATE IN THE
MORNING...WHICH ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO PEAK IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWERS 40S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
EAST. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BROUGHT SOME SNOW
TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND WHITE RAIN TO THE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS PRECIPITATION LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON BY 5F OR SO. BECAUSE THE WARM BOUNDARY IS SO
SHALLOW...SNOW WAS ABLE TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND EVEN...THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WERE ABOVE FREEZING.
THE FIRST COLD FRONT...LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT. THIS FRONT MAY BE A FEW HOURS
SLOWER TO CLEAR THE AREA...AS A SURFACE REFLECTION DEVELOPS ALONG
THE FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION
WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SNOW OR WHITE RAIN ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND A COLD RAIN IN THE EAST. A SECOND COLD FRONT
WITH ARCTIC AIR WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION AHEAD AND BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE ALL SNOW WITH
ACCUMULATIONS PRIMARILY ALONG WESTERN SLOPES. WESTERN SLOPES OF
GREENBRIER AND SUMMERS COUNTY COULD SEE 2-3 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. WESTERN SLOPES FROM THE BLUEFIELD-RICHLANDS AREA TO
THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTY
COULD HAVE 1-2 INCHES...POSSIBLE 3-4 INCHES ABOVE 4000 FT.
FOR HEADLINES...WE WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE FIRST FRONT THROUGH 6PM THIS EVENING FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.
WE WILL ALLOW THIS ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. WE WILL THEN UPGRADE THE
CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR WESTERN
SLOPES OF GREENBRIER COUNTY SOUTH INTO SUMMERS AND MERCER COUNTY.
OTHER COUNTIES IN THE WATCH WILL BE CHANGED TO A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS TO THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AND
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTY. AT THIS TIME...NO OTHER
COUNTIES WILL HAVE HEADLINES TO INCLUDED THE NEW RIVER AND ROANOKE
VALLEYS...WHO MAY SEE SOME SNOW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ONLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SHORT
WAVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...IN THE RANGE OF -30 TO -36 WILL PROVIDE SOME
LIFT AND RELATIVE INSTABILITY. THIS SHOULD EXTEND SNOW SHOWERS
WELL EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
ROANOKE. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP...REACHING -18
TO -20 BY 12Z/7AM THURSDAY. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN BUT SUBTLE DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN SPEED AND LOCATION OF
SHORT WAVED EMBEDDED IN THE LARGE UPPER TROF.
ENOUGH COLD AIR COMING IN THAT WESTERN SLOPE LOCATIONS AND AREAS
WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL HAVE STEADY OR EVEN SLIGHTLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS OF 25:1 BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH DRY AIR AND DOWNSLOPING
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO HAVE SOME CLEARING EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST MONDAY...
EASTERN UPPER TROF GETS RE-ENFORCED FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THEN TROF AXIS MOVES OF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS BRING A CLIPPER ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
MONDAY THEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY TUESDAY. WPC SUGGESTED
THE TRACK OFF THE ECMWF MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH.
SOME 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR. BEST LIFT LOOKS
TO BE ON FRIDAY WITH SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE. SNOW SHOULD BE MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN JUST UPSLOPE. THEN GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW WIND
CHILL VALUES ON FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST
850 MB WINDS APPROACHING 50 KNOTS. WIND CHILLS WILL AGAIN BE IN
ADVISORY CRITERIA...BETWEEN -5 TO -19 IN THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.
A ROUGHLY 1045 MB SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ENOUGH WITH
THE APPROACH OF THIS HIGH...AND WITH THE ASSOCIATED DRY AIR...TO
END UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1145 PM EST MONDAY...
WILL SEE A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AFFECT MAINLY BLF AND SOME AT
BCB/LWB EARLY WITH IFR/MVFR VSBYS/CIGS. FURTHER EAST CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWED FOR FOG FORMATION AT LYH/DAN THANKS
TO EARLIER RAINFALL. EXPECT THE FOG STAYING AROUND THROUGH 09Z
THEN SOME IMPROVEMENT FROM LIFR/IFR TO MVFR. AS WINDS PICK UP AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS AFTER 12Z LOOK FOR VFR VSBYS. OVERALL
CIGS FROM ROA EAST SHOULD STAY VFR...POTENTIALLY TOUCH HIGH END
MVFR IF A FLURRY OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWER PASSES BUT SEEMS THAT THE
TIME PERIOD FOR THIS IS SMALL AND NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION IN
THE TAF.
A DECENT UPPER DISTURBANCE IS GOING TO MOVE OVER SRN WV/SW VA
10-14Z...WHICH WILL BRING AN AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD
BLF/LWB. THIS WILL BRING CIGS/VSBYS BACK TOWARD IFR MAINLY BLF.
ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES BY WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP BUT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD FROM
BCB TO BLF/LWB...WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS BLF/LWB AND LOW END VFR AT
BCB.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SUB-VFR SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN
SLOPES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK WITH PROLONGED MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT KBLF/KLWB IN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. POTENTIAL ALSO FOR PERIODS OF MVFR AT
KBCB/KROA AS IMPULSES ROTATE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND BANDS OF
SNOW DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FLURRIES MAY ALSO
OCCUR AS FAR EAST AS THE PIEDMONT WHERE INTERVALS OF VFR TO MVFR
CIGS COULD ALSO OCCUR.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN TO MAINLY VFR THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND MOISTURE DECREASES.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH MAY BRING SUB VFR
CONDITIONS WITH WINTRY PRECIP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES BY SAT MORNING WITH GUSTY WINDS AND UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS WITH SUB VFR IN THE MTNS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ007-
009>012-015-019-020.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ042>044-
507.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ043-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...RCS/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
1158 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
TERMINALS ARE IN A RELATIVE LULL IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE SNOW SHOWERS WILL NOT COMPLETELY FILL BACK
IN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DO EXPECT SOME UPTICK IN COVERAGE
MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF KMSN...AS
A SHORTWAVE IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA ROTATES SOUTHEASTWARD. CEILINGS
WILL HOVER IN THE MVFR TO LOW VFR RANGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...TRENDING TOWARD MVFR. VSBY REDUCTIONS IN SNOW SHOULD
ALSO BE MVFR...WITH INFREQUENT IFR POSSIBLE. EXPECT COVERAGE TO
DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY MID TO LATE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES LOOK TO SCATTER FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT...WITH BROKEN CLOUDS POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THAT LOOK TO LARGELY REMAIN VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...EASING SOME DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO
IL/
UPDATE...
LOWERED POPS SOME TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME SUPPRESSION BEHIND THE
EARLIER MORNING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. STILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
CHANCE TO LIKELY SNOW SHOWER WORDING AS THERE SHOULD STILL BE
OCCASIONAL FLURRIES/SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. STILL HANGING ONTO
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS BEGINNING MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON WITH REASONING FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION STILL
VALID. LAPSE RATES STEEPEN SOME DURING THIS PERIOD AHEAD OF THE
VORT MAX CURRENTLY ROTATING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE LIGHT SNOW AND HOW PESKY IT WILL BE
TODAY/THIS EVENING.
CURRENTLY...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE US THANKS TO A CLOSED 500MB LOW CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS
NORTH OF THIS CLOSED LOW ALONG WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN ON UP TO
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHWEST HUDSON BAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS CENTERED TO THE EAST OF DETROIT WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING WEST FROM THIS LOW INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS
FEATURE HELPED TO CREATE SOME STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT BUT HAS MAINLY PUSHED THEM TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN DROPPING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
THE POOL OF COLD LOW LEVEL AIR HAS BEEN PULLED SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA ALONG THE WESTERN GRADIENT OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH.
THE 09.06Z RAP SHOWS 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING FROM -13C AT 7Z TO -
19C BY 00Z THIS EVENING. GIVEN THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION AND OVERCAST
CONDITIONS...EXPECT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
CLIMBING MUCH TODAY. AS FOR SNOWFALL POTENTIAL...THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT LINGERS IN WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH SOME DECENT QG FORCING IN THE 850-500MB LAYER OVER THIS
PERIOD. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN...THE SATURATED PORTION OF
THE THERMAL PROFILE FROM JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ON UP TO AROUND
700MB WILL BE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SO AM EXPECTING THIS TO
CONTINUE TO BE A HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO SITUATION. IF THERE IS
ONE PERIOD TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT IS THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
PERIOD WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
ROTATE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW AND COULD PROVIDE
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. AS OF NOW...HAVE AN AROUND AN
INCH OF ACCUMULATION ALONG THE LAKE WITH LESSER AMOUNTS THE FURTHER
WEST YOU GET.
WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
PRIMARY MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN LAKES
THOUGH BROAD EXPANSE OF THE TROUGH STILL FELT HERE WITH MAINLY
SHEARED VORT RIDING SE IN THE FLOW. COLD LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH
IN PLACE WITH 925 TEMPS -16C TO -18C. WIND CHILLS PROGGD TO BE
WELL BELOW ZERO EARLY ON BUT NOT QUITE REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS.
BUFKIT SHOWS ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE.
WILL RETAIN DRY FORECAST. LLVL RH PROGS AND MOS SUGGEST SOME CLOUD
COVER WILL LINGER WITHIN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW AND CHILLY THERMAL TROUGH.
THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ELONGATED SHEAR AXIS ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH
WILL SHIFT EAST WITH STRONG NW UPPER FLOW PERSISTING. VERY CHILLY
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH 925 TEMPS SHOWING ONLY SUBTLE
MODIFICATION. SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO IA AND RIDGES INTO THE MID
MISS VLY.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
250 MILLIBAR SPEED MAX DRIVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH MODELS
SHOWING A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM WITH LIGHT QPF AHEAD OF NEXT ARCTIC
SURGE. WEAK SHOT OF WAA WITH MOSTLY SHEARED VORT. 00Z ECMWF
CONTINUED TREND OF 12Z RUN TO GENERATE A BIT MORE QPF AREA WIDE
THAN THE GFS OR GEM. WILL GO WITH BLENDED POPS FOR NOW AS GFS/GEM
IN AGREEMENT WITH LESS QPF AND CONFINED MORE TO THE SW AND SRN PTN
OF THE CWA.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS EXPECTED WITH 1045 MILLIBAR HIGH BUILDING
IN FROM THE DAKOTAS THIS PERIOD. WILL LIKELY SEE WIND CHILLS WELL
BELOW ZERO FRI NGT INTO SAT MRNG. 925 TEMPS PROGGD TO -20C TO
-24C.
SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE SHIFTS ESE FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. MEANWHILE SOME MODEL DIVERGENCE ON PLACEMENT OF LOW LEVEL
FEATURES. THE GFS SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN TROUGH WHILE
THE ECMWF CARVES OUT A STRONGER MORE SOUTHERN LOW VCNTY MO. THERE
IS SOME AGREEMENT THAT 850 WAA WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES IN SFC/850 LOW
PLACEMENT. SO WILL BE USING SUPERBLEND POPS AS THESE SEEM
REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A MORE SRN SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO
SFC/850 LOW TRACKS WHILE THE GFS TRACKS SFC LOW/TROUGH ACROSS WI.
SO AGAIN DESPITE SOME DIFFERENCES THE MAIN MESSAGE WILL BE SNOW
CHANCES CONTINUING AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
MARINE...OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
INTO WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN HIGH
PLAINS. WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS PERIOD. WAVES WILL BE
THE HIGHEST TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE AS WELL GIVEN THE
NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KMD
AVIATION...KMD
TODAY/TONIGHT...HALBACH
THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
528 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
AT 3 AM...THE AREA REMAINS IN A MODERATE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A 997 MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON AND A 1028 MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER DEVILS LAKE NORTH DAKOTA. THIS SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS PRODUCING SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THESE WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN IN
THESE RANGES THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO WEAKEN. WITH MUCH OF THE SNOW ALREADY
SETTLED AND NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ANTICIPATED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...EXPECT ONLY PATCHY TO A
FEW AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FOR MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE MESO MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN
WISCONSIN. IN ADDITION...THE 950 TO 900 MB LAPSE RATES WILL CLIMB
ABOUT 8 C/KM EAST OF AN EAU CLAIRE TO LANCASTER LINE IN WESTERN
WISCONSIN. FINALLY THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT SNOW IN
THIS AREA. DUE TO THIS INCREASED THE SNOW CHANCES UP INTO THE
CHANCE RANGE /30 TO 40 PERCENT/. IF THIS SIGNAL CONTINUES...THESE
CHANCES OF SNOW WILL HAVE TO RAISED FURTHER. ADDITIONAL SNOW
TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO MAYBE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
SNOW.
FOR LATE TONIGHT...WIND CHILLS WILL FALL INTO THE 15 TO 25 BELOW
RANGE. THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS ARE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 IN WESTERN
WISCONSIN. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS FOR
LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE 09.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE ON WHERE THE TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE LOCATED ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ARCTIC HIGH. THE GEM AND GFS CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF AND NAM KEEP
THIS SNOW BAND WELL WEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. CURRENTLY THINKING
THAT THE LATTER MODELS PROBABLY HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS
SYSTEM...SO LEANED MORE TOWARD THE NAM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC
COLD FRONT. WEAK TO MODERATE 275K ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. IN ADDITION...THERE IS
WEAK 900 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS. MOISTURE LOOKS VERY LIMITED
WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OF ONLY 1 TO 2 G/KG. AT MOST THIS SNOW
BAND LOOKS TO PRODUCE AROUND A HALF INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA... NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT IS THE COLDEST 850 MB AIR THE
WINTER. FORTUNATELY...THE COLDEST 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO...QUEBEC...AND NEW ENGLAND WHERE 925
MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AS LOW -36C. ACCORDING TO NAEFS...THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE CLOSER TO HOME...WE ARE LOOKING AT 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ANOMALIES OF 1 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
ON SATURDAY. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THERE MAY BE SOME COLD
HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT COULD BE TIED OR BROKEN. OUR CURRENT
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE GRID CURRENTLY HAS MUCH OF THE AREA
NOT EVEN REACHING 10F. THE RECORD COLD HIGH FOR ROCHESTER ON
SATURDAY IS 5F SET BACK IN 1970 AND IT IS 0F IN 1905 FOR LA CROSSE
WISCONSIN. IN ADDITION TO THIS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WIND CHILLS ON
SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 30 BELOW. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE QUESTIONS ON HOW
FAST THE 1040 MB ARCTIC HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. THE
LATEST ECMWF ENSEMBLE HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR ROCHESTER RANGING
FROM 12 TO 40 FOR SUNDAY. MEANWHILE THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS
JUST A DEGREE BELOW ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN. AS A RESULT...THE
CONFIDENCE OF TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD ARE CURRENTLY
LOWER THAN NORMAL. WHILE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS IN
QUESTION...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL BE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE AREA...BUT
THE TOTALS ARE HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME. THIS IS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE THERMAL STRUCTURE OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND HOW
MUCH MOISTURE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
AN AREA OF VFR CONDITIONS HAS ROTATED DOWN AND ACROSS BOTH TAF
SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE 09.09Z RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS AND WOULD SUGGEST CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR UNTIL LATE
THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO COME DOWN OUT OF CANADA AND MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. A DEEPER MOISTURE FIELD AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE MVFR CEILINGS TO REFORM OVER BOTH SITES
AND THEN REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. KRST
COULD SEE THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. IF THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FOR KLSE
IT WILL BE RIGHT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AND THIS CAN BE
ADDRESSED WITH THE NEXT SET OF FORECASTS. THE WINDS HAVE
TEMPORARILY SETTLED DOWN A LITTLE BIT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
GUSTY AGAIN BY MID MORNING AS THERE ARE STILL GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN PLACE ONCE A LITTLE MIXING GETS GOING TO TAP INTO THESE
HIGHER SPEEDS. THESE GUSTS SHOULD THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
THE MIXING GETS SHUT OFF BY THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
309 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE LIGHT SNOW AND HOW PESKY IT WILL BE
TODAY/THIS EVENING.
CURRENTLY...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE US THANKS TO A CLOSED 500MB LOW CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS
NORTH OF THIS CLOSED LOW ALONG WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN ON UP TO
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHWEST HUDSON BAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS CENTERED TO THE EAST OF DETROIT WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING WEST FROM THIS LOW INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS
FEATURE HELPED TO CREATE SOME STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT BUT HAS MAINLY PUSHED THEM TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN DROPPING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
THE POOL OF COLD LOW LEVEL AIR HAS BEEN PULLED SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA ALONG THE WESTERN GRADIENT OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH.
THE 09.06Z RAP SHOWS 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING FROM -13C AT 7Z TO -
19C BY 00Z THIS EVENING. GIVEN THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION AND OVERCAST
CONDITIONS...EXPECT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
CLIMBING MUCH TODAY. AS FOR SNOWFALL POTENTIAL...THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT LINGERS IN WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH SOME DECENT QG FORCING IN THE 850-500MB LAYER OVER THIS
PERIOD. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN...THE SATURATED PORTION OF
THE THERMAL PROFILE FROM JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ON UP TO AROUND
700MB WILL BE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SO AM EXPECTING THIS TO
CONTINUE TO BE A HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO SITUATION. IF THERE IS
ONE PERIOD TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT IS THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
PERIOD WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
ROTATE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW AND COULD PROVIDE
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. AS OF NOW...HAVE AN AROUND AN
INCH OF ACCUMULATION ALONG THE LAKE WITH LESSER AMOUNTS THE FURTHER
WEST YOU GET.
.WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
PRIMARY MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN LAKES
THOUGH BROAD EXPANSE OF THE TROUGH STILL FELT HERE WITH MAINLY
SHEARED VORT RIDING SE IN THE FLOW. COLD LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH
IN PLACE WITH 925 TEMPS -16C TO -18C. WIND CHILLS PROGGD TO BE
WELL BELOW ZERO EARLY ON BUT NOT QUITE REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS.
BUFKIT SHOWS ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE.
WILL RETAIN DRY FORECAST. LLVL RH PROGS AND MOS SUGGEST SOME CLOUD
COVER WILL LINGER WITHIN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW AND CHILLY THERMAL TROUGH.
.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ELONGATED SHEAR AXIS ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH
WILL SHIFT EAST WITH STRONG NW UPPER FLOW PERSISTING. VERY CHILLY
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH 925 TEMPS SHOWING ONLY SUBTLE
MODIFICATION. SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO IA AND RIDGES INTO THE MID
MISS VLY.
.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
250 MILLIBAR SPEED MAX DRIVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH MODELS
SHOWING A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM WITH LIGHT QPF AHEAD OF NEXT ARCTIC
SURGE. WEAK SHOT OF WAA WITH MOSTLY SHEARED VORT. 00Z ECMWF
CONTINUED TREND OF 12Z RUN TO GENERATE A BIT MORE QPF AREA WIDE
THAN THE GFS OR GEM. WILL GO WITH BLENDED POPS FOR NOW AS GFS/GEM
IN AGREEMENT WITH LESS QPF AND CONFINED MORE TO THE SW AND SRN PTN
OF THE CWA.
.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS EXPECTED WITH 1045 MILLIBAR HIGH BUILDING
IN FROM THE DAKOTAS THIS PERIOD. WILL LIKELY SEE WIND CHILLS WELL
BELOW ZERO FRI NGT INTO SAT MRNG. 925 TEMPS PROGGD TO -20C TO
-24C.
.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE SHIFTS ESE FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. MEANWHILE SOME MODEL DIVERGENCE ON PLACEMENT OF LOW LEVEL
FEATURES. THE GFS SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN TROUGH WHILE
THE ECMWF CARVES OUT A STRONGER MORE SOUTHERN LOW VCNTY MO. THERE
IS SOME AGREEMENT THAT 850 WAA WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES IN SFC/850 LOW
PLACEMENT. SO WILL BE USING SUPERBLEND POPS AS THESE SEEM
REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.
.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A MORE SRN SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO
SFC/850 LOW TRACKS WHILE THE GFS TRACKS SFC LOW/TROUGH ACROSS WI.
SO AGAIN DESPITE SOME DIFFERENCES THE MAIN MESSAGE WILL BE SNOW
CHANCES CONTINUING AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MVFR TO VFR
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WITH A FEW BRIEF DROPS TO IFR OCCURRING
WHEN SOME STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS PASS THROUGH. WITH LOW PRESSURE
LINGERING IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...EXPECT THAT THE LIGHT
SNOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS WHERE THE VISIBILITY
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 3- 5SM RANGE WITH SOME VERY BRIEF IFR 2SM
CONDITIONS STILL POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE LAKE WHERE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SNOW IS TODAY/TONIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MVFR RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT THOUGH SOME
BREAKS TO VFR ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AND GUSTY AT TIMES INTO THE 20-24KT RANGE.
&&
.MARINE...OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
INTO WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN HIGH
PLAINS. WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS PERIOD. WAVES WILL BE
THE HIGHEST TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE AS WELL GIVEN THE
NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HALBACH
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
348 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016
High pressure sinking south through the plains states will affect
temperatures to the negative side over the next couple of days.
Stratus was advancing across the Missouri valley into central
Nebraska and northern Kansas. The latest HRRR model runs have
continued to advect stratus of around 1000ft bases through the Hays
area and perhaps as far south as Dodge City after 12 UTC. So
stratus dissipation and local visibilities due to fog may be the
main forecast problems of the morning influencing temperature
trends. Afternoon highs will be not as warm today, however drier dew
points and downslope trajectories should still help temperatures
warm toward 70 in the far west.
.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016
Very low precipitation probabilities were included associated with
mainly a freezing drizzle and fog possibility on Friday night into
very early Saturday morning, however, this only glances the
northwest most sections of west central Kansas as the model signal
is focused over the northwest part of the state. A general cooling
trend each day ends by Sunday as the easterly surface wind gets
whipped around from the west once again as a shortwave dives through
the Northern Plains. A short period of weakly cyclonic flow aloft
will continue into the Monday timeframe and pops may need to be
revisited in the coming forecast cycles, but at this point the
confidence is extremely low for precipitation chances.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Thursday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016
VFR category is forecast with fairly high confidence at GCK.
However IFR category may be possible at HAYS toward the 11-14Z
timeframe as the cooler airmass over the Missouri valley advects
stratus clouds westward. Winds remain light through the period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 57 31 51 22 / 0 0 0 10
GCK 61 29 53 24 / 0 0 0 10
EHA 66 33 59 29 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 62 31 58 26 / 0 0 0 10
HYS 49 30 42 20 / 0 0 0 20
P28 54 32 52 22 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
350 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW STRATUS THAT HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SO FAR IT HAS MADE IT
ACROSS MOST OF THE NEBRASKA PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE KANSAS PORTION.
THE FIRST CONCERN WITH THIS IS THERE WAS QUITE A BIT OF SNOW MELTING
YESTERDAY SO THERE IS GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS HAVE BEEN FROM
THE NORTH AND FAIRLY LIGHT. WITH THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS ACROSS THE
AREA THERE COULD BE A LITTLE FOG. THE HRRR AND THE SREF BOTH HAVE
THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES IN THE WEST. SO FAR THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
INDICATION OF ANY FOG. WILL KEEP SOME MENTION OF PATCHY FOG WITH A
FEW AREAS OF FOG IN THE FAR WEST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE IF THE
VISIBILITY DROPS AS WE GET CLOSER TO SUNRISE. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
SEEMS TO BE THE MODELS THAT BRING THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES ALSO HAVE
EASTERLY WINDS AND THE CURRENT WINDS ARE MORE NORTH.
THERE COULD BE A LITTLE OF THE PATCHY FOG THAT LINGERS INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. THE CLOUDS SHOULD HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...BUT TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY THE CLOUDS SHOULD START TO
RECEDE TO THE EAST AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SHOULD HELP TO MOVE THE CLOUDS OUT
OF THE AREA...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE VERY COLD BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PLAINS SITS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EAST CAUSING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND
INTO SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH...THE LOWEST LEVELS
REMAIN THE MOST SATURATED...BUT EARLY ON THERE IS ENOUGH DEPTH AND
IT IS COLD ENOUGH TO BEGIN AS SNOW BEFORE FREEZING DRIZZLE LOOKS TO
BE THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. DRYER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT TO PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE FORECAST.
A MORE POTENT DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO BE OVER NORTH AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA...BUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY OCCUR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THE COLUMN OF AIR WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO BE THE
MAIN PRECIP TYPE WITH THIS.
SUNDAY AFTER THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY. DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL AID TEMPERATURES TO RISE BACK INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
AREA.
ANOTHER BRIEF DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS
COULD BRING ANOTHER BRIEF CHANCE FOR PRECIP...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON THIS FEATURE.
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL HAVE A WARMING TREND AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
EACH DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO
THE 50S BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016
STRATUS CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE TERMINAL AREAS IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT THE LOWEST CEILINGS TO BE A FEW HOURS
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE. CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE A LITTLE DURING
THE DAY...BUT THE STRATUS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. DUE TO SNOW MELT TODAY...LIGHT WINDS AND THE EDGE OF THE
STRATUS AROUND THE AREA...THERE COULD BE SOME FOG. THE LOCATION
AND HOW DENSE IT GETS IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...BILLINGS WRIGHT
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
333 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS USHERED IN STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE FA. SOME LIGHT FOG INDICATED AT THEDFORD AND PINE RIDGE
AS OF 08Z. TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE A DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHEAST
FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TODAY AND THE EFFECTS THIS
HAS ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL VEER SURFACE WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA AND ALLOWING HIGHS TO RISE TO 45
TO 50 DEGREES. THE MORNING STRATUS SHOULD BREAK UP IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDINESS LINGERING.
FURTHER EAST...HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S AFFECTED BY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PERSISTENT STRATUS. HAVE INTRODUCED A 20-30 POP
ACROSS BOYD COUNTY AND FAR NRN HOLT COUNTY MAINLY BETWEEN 10
AM AND 3 PM ON THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE DISTURBANCE.
FOR TONIGHT...AN ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
WITH STRATUS LIKELY TO PUSH BACK INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERE COULD
BE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SOUNDING
PROFILES FAVOR SOME CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. HAVE NOT INTRODUCED
MENTION YET...AND IF IT WOULD OCCUR IT WOULD FAVOR AREAS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FA. LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER 20S CENTRAL
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 25 NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON FRIDAY AND WILL FORCE A FRONT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SANDHILLS. THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN
ZONES...TO NEAR 40 OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHWEST. THE
FRONT STALLS FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEB AND THE PANHANDLE
AS A WEAK AREA OF MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS EAST ATOP THE
FRONT. PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND EASTERN
PANHANDLE INITIALLY REVEAL SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE THERMAL
PROFILES FOR ALL SNOW...BUT INTO THE OVERNIGHT SOUNDINGS FAVOR MORE
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER SNOW. THE FOCUS OF THE DRIZZLE WILL
SPREAD EAST TOWARD DAWN AND ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES EAST
ACROSS THE SANDHILLS. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...WITH HIGHS ANTICIPATED TO TOP OUT
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS SW NEB AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE.
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGHS
OF ONLY THE MID 20S.
THE NEXT POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION PRODUCER ARRIVES OVER NORTHERN
NEBRASKA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BEST LIFT GENERALLY IS INDICATED
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...BUT THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO PUT DOWN QPF ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES. WILL RETAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS OUR NORTH.
FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND...THE SYSTEM EJECTS TO THE EAST...BUT
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT QPF CHANCES
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. WARMING TEMPERATURES THOUGH ARE LIKELY AS
LOWER AND MID LEVEL WAA SPREADS EAST FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN WEST.
BEYOND SUNDAY THE WARMING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 60 SOUTH OF I80 BY TUESDAY. THE WARM TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK AS RIDGING PREVAILS TO THE WEST
OF THE CWA. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS SHOWN TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES MID-WEEK...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE AT ODDS
AS TO HOW FAR WEST THE COOL AIR BUILDS. FOR NOW WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE BLENDED EXTENDED PROCEDURE...WHICH SUGGEST THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED BEYOND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016
THE RAP MODEL HAS DONE WELL WITH THE MVFR/IFR CIGS MOVING INTO
NEB THIS EVENING AND IT IS THE BASIS FOR THE FORECAST. THE MODEL
IS SIMILAR TO THE FASTER GFS AND SUGGESTS MOST OF THE FCST AREA
WOULD BE VFR BY 22Z THURSDAY.
LIFR IS POSSIBLE FOG OVERNIGHT ALONG I-80 AND HIGHWAY 61. MVFR/IFR
IS GENERALLY EXPECTED FROM 16Z-20Z.
MVFR CIGS MOVE IN AGAIN THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE NEXT ARCTIC
FRONT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1126 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016
MILD AIR HAS PUSHED INTO ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ARCTIC FRONT HAS RETREATED EAST...ALL
THE WAY TO FAR NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WESTERLY
WINDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE SURGED INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER
NON SNOW COVERED AREAS OF THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS...TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THE H5 PATTERN TODAY REMAINED
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...AND HAS SHIFTED 100 TO 200 MILES FURTHER EAST
TDY. RIDGING EXTENDED FROM SRN NEVADA...NORTH INTO SRN YUKON WHILE
A TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES...SOUTH TO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SRN FLORIDA. IN BETWEEN THE
TROUGH AND RIDGE...A TIGHT NWRLY H5 GRADIENT WAS NOTED AND
EXTENDED FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE BOOT HEEL OF MISSOURI.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016
TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S TODAY HAVE RESULTED IN SOME DECENT SNOW
MELT. MEANWHILE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SW INTO THE
REGION. THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS WILL
CREATE SOME CONCERNS FOR TEMPS...AS WARM TEMPS TO THE WEST OF THE
FRONT AND COOL TEMPS TO THE EAST. FOR NOW WILL MODEL BLEND THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONT...WITH THE WEST AND SNOW FREE AREAS TO WARM
TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO NEAR 50. LIKELY GOING TO HOLD IN THE 30S TO
AROUND 40 IN THE EAST.
FOR TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE FOLLOWING THE MEANDERING FRONT. SOME
SATURATION AND WEAK LIFT IN THE BL COULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL MAINLY IMPACT N
CENTRAL...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO ONLY INCLUDED PATCHY
WORDING. ELSEWHERE...THE ADDED MOISTURE IN THE BL FROM THE SNOW MELT
SHOULD CREATE A RICH ENVIRONMENT FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE PATCHY DENSE FOG. DEW PTS HAVE INCREASED
INTO THE LOWER 30S...WHILE EXPECTED LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016
MID TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A COUPLE OF FORECAST
CONCERNS HIGHLIGHT THE MID RANGE. THE FIRST IS
TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN THE
THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT
SNOW THREAT FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE ORIENTED ACROSS THE FAR NERN CWA.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THIS FRONT FROM WEST CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY EVENING. AS THE LOW
APPROACHES...WEAK LIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE PRESENT IN BOYD AND
NERN HOLT COUNTIES. WITH THIS IN MIND...DECIDED TO PLACE SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW IN THESE AREAS. THE FRONT WILL SURGE NORTHEAST
AHEAD OF THE LOWS TRACK...THEN QUICKLY SURGE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO SERN NEBRASKA. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...FORCING THE ARCTIC FRONT SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. BY FRIDAY EVENING...THE FRONT WILL BE ORIENTED
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. HIGHS WERE LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY FOR FRIDAY AS
THE FRONTAL TIMING IS NOW 6 TO 12 HRS EARLIER THAN WHAT WAS
INDICATED WITH YESTERDAY/S MODEL SOLNS. THAT BEING SAID...WITH THE
COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND EASTERLY WINDS...HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
STUCK IN THE 20S AND 30S. ON FRIDAY EVENING...THE FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TEMPORARILY BEFORE TRACKING SLOWLY EAST
OVERNIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK AREA OF MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL LIFT EAST OVER THE FRONT AS A H750 WARM FRONT BEGINS
TO PUSH INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERMAL PROFILES
INITIALLY SUPPORT ALL SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT EAST OF THE PANHANDLE AND
FIRST TIER OF COUNTIES FROM MERRIMAN TO HAYES CENTER. HOWEVER...WEST
OF THIS LINE...FCST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATIVE OF SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. THIS FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL WILL SPREAD EAST
SATURDAY AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE FZDZ THREAT WILL LIE PRIMARILY EAST OF A
AINSWORTH TO TAYLOR LINE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA...TO LOWER 40S IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE
AND FAR SWRN NEBRASKA.
LONG RANGE...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE INHERITED FCST DID HAVE A MENTION OF LIGHT
PCPN ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA SAT NIGHT AND THIS
WAS RETAINED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. ON SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND AND THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS
INTO THE UPPER MISISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE WILL STILL BE A LIMITED
THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN...THEN NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA SUNDAY. DECIDED TO LEAVE POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
NOW...AS FORCING IS WEAK AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE. AFTER SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS TRANSITIONING FROM THE 40S MONDAY...TO
THE 50S TO AROUND 60 TUESDAY...THEN THE 50S FOR WEDNESDAY. THE
PATTERN ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL PATTERN...WHICH
WILL ALLOW WARMER PACIFIC AIR TO INFILTRATE THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ANY
ARCTIC AIR NEXT WEEK...IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016
THE RAP MODEL HAS DONE WELL WITH THE MVFR/IFR CIGS MOVING INTO
NEB THIS EVENING AND IT IS THE BASIS FOR THE FORECAST. THE MODEL
IS SIMILAR TO THE FASTER GFS AND SUGGESTS MOST OF THE FCST AREA
WOULD BE VFR BY 22Z THURSDAY.
LIFR IS POSSIBLE FOG OVERNIGHT ALONG I-80 AND HIGHWAY 61. MVFR/IFR
IS GENERALLY EXPECTED FROM 16Z-20Z.
MVFR CIGS MOVE IN AGAIN THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE NEXT ARCTIC
FRONT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1124 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016
AFTER A SEASONABLY NICE AFTERNOON...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
RAPIDLY FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING THIS EVENING AS THE SUN GOES
DOWN...WITH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO ROLL BACK IN ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT
ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS STRATUS...AND OPTED TO INTRODUCE THIS
INTO THE FORECAST AFTER ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WHILE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THE MORE DENSE FOG IS WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA...THE
LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR IS INDICATING THIS MORE DENSE AREA OF FOG
COULD AT LEAST CREEP IN ON OUR WESTERN COUNTIES TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...AND THIS WILL BE SOMETHING FOR THE EVENING SHIFT TO
MONITOR AS NEW MODEL DATA COMES IN.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LITTLE SHIFT IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MAKING ITS WAY OVER THE TOP
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY AND THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST
TO INCH BACK ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...BRINGING SIGNIFICANT LOW
LEVEL STRATUS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS THE REGION
TOMORROW...WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKING AT THE OVERALL PICTURE...UPPER LEVEL NWRLY
FLOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE HUDSON BAY AREA KEEPS THE ERN CONUS UNDER BROAD
TROUGHING...WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS NORTH THROUGH THE
ROCKIES. AT THIS POINT...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THURS NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK JUST OFF TO THE N/NE OF
THE CWA. THE MAIN STORY THROUGH FRIDAY LIES WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT...BEING PUSHED SOUTH BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH
TO THE N/NE. WHILE THE SFC PATTERN STARTS THE PERIOD OUT FAIRLY
RELAXED...THIS FRONT WITH USHER IN NRLY WINDS BY SUNRISE
FRIDAY...GRADUALLY TURNING MORE NERLY THROUGH THE DAY. COLDER AIR
STARTS TO ADVECT INTO THE CWA...AND DID LOWER FORECAST HIGHS FOR
FRIDAY...WITH NEAR 30 NOW IN THE NORTHEAST TO NEAR 40 IN THE SW.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY REGARDING PRECIP
CHANCES/LACK OF...IS NOT HIGH. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL REMAIN LOOKS TO
REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY...BUT THERE IS BETTER POTENTIAL FOR THE CWA TO
BE AFFECTED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE MAIN FLOW. LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING IS THE FIRST SHOT OF THIS ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH...WITH MODELS ALSO SHOWING THE CWA SITTING ON THE ERN
EDGE OF A 25-30KT LLJ SITTING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS HINTING
AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AFFECTING MAINLY WRN
AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DIFFERING SOME
WITH THE OVERALL THICKNESS OF THE SATURATED LAYER...LEAVING THE
QUESTION WHETHER THERE WOULD BE ANYTHING MEASURABLE...OR IF IT WOULD BE MORE
FZDZ OR FLURRIES. HAVE A 20 POP/SNOW GOING AS WELL AS A SLGT CHANCE
FOR FZDZ. ONLY KEPT THE MENTION GOING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...THOUGH IF YOU BELIEVE THE NAM QPF FIELDS THERE WOULD BE
SOMETHING AROUND ALL DAY SATURDAY. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES
GO...SATURDAY STILL FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOCATED OVER NERN IA...WITH ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA NOT TOO FAR AWAY
FROM DOUBLE DIGIT BELOW ZERO TEMPS AT 850MB. EVEN WITH THE BRUNT OF
THE COLDEST AIR OFF TO OUR EAST...FORECAST HIGHS CURRENTLY RANGE
FROM NEAR 20 IN THE NORTHEAST TO LOWER 30S IN THE SW. LOOKING TO
SUNDAY...THE FORECAST IS DRY...BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH. MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR 1 /PERHAPS 2/ WEAK WAVES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...JUST SOME DIFFERENCES
IN LOCATION. WILL SEE HOW THINGS TREND BEFORE INSERTING POPS.
EXPECTING TO SEE REBOUNDING TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AS THAT COLDER AIR
PUSHES EAST AND WARMER TEMPS START TO BUILD IN...WITH 40S CURRENTLY
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...THE FORECAST REMAINS
DRY...WITH MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TAKING OVER THE WRN CONUS AND GRADUALLY BUILDING EAST. NICE
WARM UP CURRENTLY GOING IN THE FORECAST...WITH 50S FORECAST FOR
TUE/WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016
STRATUS CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE TERMINAL AREAS IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT THE LOWEST CEILINGS TO BE A FEW HOURS
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE. CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE A LITTLE DURING
THE DAY...BUT THE STRATUS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. DUE TO SNOW MELT TODAY...LIGHT WINDS AND THE EDGE OF THE
STRATUS AROUND THE AREA...THERE COULD BE SOME FOG. THE LOCATION
AND HOW DENSE IT GETS IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
415 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT IN PARTS
OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR MASS SINCE LAST
WINTER. WIND CHILLS WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW...WELL BELOW
ZERO...SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A MODERATING TREND IS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
315 AM UPDATE...
WANTED TO SEND OUT AN "EARLY" UPDATE TO REFLECT ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION REGARDING OUR LAKE EFFECT EVENT. WILL SEND OUT A
SEPARATE AFD FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TO GO OVER THE DANGEROUS
COLD OVER THE WEEKEND. FIRST THINGS FIRST, THE LAKE EFFECT. SEE
OUR WEBSITE FOR OUR LATEST SNOWFALL MAP THAT I JUST POSTED.
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. I DID SHIFT THE
HEAVIER AXIS OF SNOW FARTHER NORTH, TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS FROM
YESTERDAY EVENING THROUGH NOW. THE CHANGE WILL INCREASE AMOUNTS IN
WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY QUITE A BIT, WHILE DROPPING OFF
SHARPLY TOWARD THE CITY OF UTICA. I KEPT NORTHERN ONONDAGA IN THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL PROBABLY END UP BEING
LOWER OVERALL THAN WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA. THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY IS A REFLECTION OF WHAT WE EXPECT TO
COME, NOT UNDERSTANDING WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW HERE YET. WHILE
THE FORECAST GOING FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THIS POINT
FORWARD, WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW AT ALL FROM THE NEAR THE CITY
OF SYRACUSE SOUTH. THUS I HAVE ADJUSTED TOTALS DOWN ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONONDAGA/MADISON COUNTIES, ALONG WITH NORTHERN
CORTLAND/CHENANGO/OTSEGO.
WHILE THE BAND HAS BEEN MAINLY NORTH OF KSYR AND HAS EVEN WAVERED
BACK INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE BAND WILL
SINK SOUTH BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOW A MEAN WIND OF 275 NOW, ABRUPTLY SHIFTING TOWARD 290 BY 12Z,
THEN LOCKING IN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. KBUF RADAR SHOWS THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE BAND NEAR KROC IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF
THIS CHANGE AND WILL FOLLOW. SO WHILE THE EVENT HAS PLAYED OUT
WELL THUS FAR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY, MANY IN METRO
SYRACUSE AND ALONG THE THRUWAY MAY BE WONDERING WHAT LAKE SNOWS?
DON`T LET YOUR GUARD DOWN YET AS HEAVIER SNOWS WILL SHIFT SOUTH
TODAY. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS GRADUALLY LOWERING TOWARD 5KFT BY
LATE AFTERNOON, THE OVERALL INTENSITY WILL BE HIGHEST THIS
MORNING, THEN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH MID MORNING WILL STILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2"+
RANGE. THE FLOW REMAINS AROUND 290-300 THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT, BEFORE
THE FLOW BACKS ENOUGH TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST TO LIFT THE BAND OUT OF
OUR AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY. IN ALL A WIDESPREAD, LONG
DURATION 6"+ LOOKS GOOD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY, WITH CLOSER TO
1 1/2 FEET OVER WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY. I CONTINUE TO MENTION BLOW
AND DRIFTING SNOW WITHIN AND NEAR THE SNOW BANDS THEMSELVES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
OVERVIEW...SNOW SQUALLS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONT
THAT WILL DELIVER BRUTAL COLD SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL RIVAL WHAT WE SAW LAST FEBRUARY.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT....MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE QUIET WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. FRIDAY EVENING THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 0Z AND 06Z SATURDAY. SNOW
SQUALLS LOOK LIKELY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR POOR VISIBILITY AND
SNOWFALL RATES OF MORE THAN AN INCH PER HOUR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
STEEP LAPSE RATES OF MORE THAN 8.0 C/KM UP THROUGH 650 MB! IN
ADDITION STRONG OMEGA (LIFT/RISING AIR IN THE ATMOSPHERE) IS FOUND
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE RIGHT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. THINK BIG
FLAKES, HIGH EFFICIENCY OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS. WILL ADD CHANCE OF
HEAVY SNOW FOR THE FRIDAY EVENING FORECAST. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A
FEW INCHES LIKELY BUT AGAIN IT WILL BE THE RATE OF FALL WHICH WILL
CAUSE POOR VISIBILITIES AND DANGEROUS ROADS.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...BRUTAL COLD. 850 TEMPS FALL TO BETWEEN
-28C AND -30C! "OFFICIAL" HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS AT
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW ZERO FOR
TEMPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN NY STATE! THIS ALONE IS
COLD BUT A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OCEAN STORM AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH WIND FOR WIND CHILL
READINGS BETWEEN -10 AND -30. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR EXTREME COLD AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN OUR
HWO, ON SOCIAL MEDIA, AND IN OUR ONLINE BRIEFING PACKAGE FOUND AT
WEATHER.GOV/BGM UNDER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING AT THE BOTTOM OF THE
PAGE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE, WITH -20
READINGS POSSIBLE IN OUR COLDER SPOTS. IMPRESSIVE COLD AND THE
ONLY SILVER LINING IS THE FACT IT WON`T LAST LONG. SEE BELOW FOR
MORE ON MILDER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 PM UPDATE...
ONLY SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH SLIDES EAST RIGHT OVER THE AREA BY LATE DAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS...YET WE START THE DAY WITH SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES SO VERY COLD ANYWAYS. STILL EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT,
THOUGH THIS WILL TEND TO BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY HAS THE
HIGH MOVES IN. HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CATSKILLS NORTH TO THE TUG HILL WITH LOW TO MID TEENS
ELSEWHERE.
PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR CORE OF ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT MODERATION BACK TO AT
LEAST SEASONAL. MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT BUT THERE IS MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING, TRACK, AND INTENSITY. FOR NOW, INDICATE
CHANCE OF SNOW IN GRIDS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE LOW COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING RAIN TO SOME AREAS
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LE BAND WILL LINGER IN THE SYR/RME CORRIDOR AND BRING OCNL IFR
CONDS INTO THU. BAND IS XPCTD TO GRADUALLY SLIP SOPUTH AND WILL
BRING OCNL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO ITH ANBD BGM LTR IN THE DAY.
WEAKENING FLOW AND DRIER AIR WILL ERODE THE LAKE EFFECT LVG GNRL
VFR CONDS TO ALL STATIONS AFT 00Z. GUSTY WEST WNDS TODAY WILL
BECOME LGTR AFT SUNSET THIS EVE.
.OUTLOOK...
THU NGT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE CEILING AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE
TO PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW AND BANDS OF MORE INTENSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF. LESS COVERAGE AND TIME
AFFECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS.
MON...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ016-017-044>046.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
036-037.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DGM/PCF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
320 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
IN PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR MASS SINCE LAST
WINTER. WIND CHILLS WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW...WELL BELOW
ZERO...SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
315 AM UPDATE...
WANTED TO SEND OUT AN "EARLY" UPDATE TO REFLECT ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION REGARDING OUR LAKE EFFECT EVENT. WILL SEND OUT A
SEPARATE AFD FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TO GO OVER THE DANGEROUS
COLD OVER THE WEEKEND. FIRST THINGS FIRST, THE LAKE EFFECT. SEE
OUR WEBSITE FOR OUR LATEST SNOWFALL MAP THAT I JUST POSTED.
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. I DID SHIFT THE
HEAVIER AXIS OF SNOW FARTHER NORTH, TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS FROM
YESTERDAY EVENING THROUGH NOW. THE CHANGE WILL INCREASE AMOUNTS IN
WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY QUITE A BIT, WHILE DROPPING OFF
SHARPLY TOWARD THE CITY OF UTICA. I KEPT NORTHERN ONONDAGA IN THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL PROBABLY END UP BEING
LOWER OVERALL THAN WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA. THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY IS A REFLECTION OF WHAT WE EXPECT TO
COME, NOT UNDERSTANDING WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW HERE YET. WHILE
THE FORECAST GOING FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THIS POINT
FORWARD, WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW AT ALL FROM THE NEAR THE CITY
OF SYRACUSE SOUTH. THUS I HAVE ADJUSTED TOTALS DOWN ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONONDAGA/MADISON COUNTIES, ALONG WITH NORTHERN
CORTLAND/CHENANGO/OTSEGO.
WHILE THE BAND HAS BEEN MAINLY NORTH OF KSYR AND HAS EVEN WAVERED
BACK INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE BAND WILL
SINK SOUTH BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOW A MEAN WIND OF 275 NOW, ABRUPTLY SHIFTING TOWARD 290 BY 12Z,
THEN LOCKING IN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. KBUF RADAR SHOWS THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE BAND NEAR KROC IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF
THIS CHANGE AND WILL FOLLOW. SO WHILE THE EVENT HAS PLAYED OUT
WELL THUS FAR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY, MANY IN METRO
SYRACUSE AND ALONG THE THRUWAY MAY BE WONDERING WHAT LAKE SNOWS?
DON`T LET YOUR GUARD DOWN YET AS HEAVIER SNOWS WILL SHIFT SOUTH
TODAY. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS GRADUALLY LOWERING TOWARD 5KFT BY
LATE AFTERNOON, THE OVERALL INTENSITY WILL BE HIGHEST THIS
MORNING, THEN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH MID MORNING WILL STILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2"+
RANGE. THE FLOW REMAINS AROUND 290-300 THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT, BEFORE
THE FLOW BACKS ENOUGH TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST TO LIFT THE BAND OUT OF
OUR AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY. IN ALL A WIDESPREAD, LONG
DURATION 6"+ LOOKS GOOD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY, WITH CLOSER TO
1 1/2 FEET OVER WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY. I CONTINUE TO MENTION BLOW
AND DRIFTING SNOW WITHIN AND NEAR THE SNOW BANDS THEMSELVES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
430 PM UPDATE...
MAIN ATTENTION TURNS TO A SIGNIFICANT BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR...THE
COLDEST SINCE LAST WINTER...WHICH WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW
WIND CHILLS BY SATURDAY.
BEFORE THAT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE WARNING ZONES...BUT OVERNIGHT THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BACK WELL AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT...WHICH WILL DIMINISH AND
SHIFT LAKE EFFECT SNOW NORTH OF THE AREA.
FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EAST
ACROSS NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA AND DRAG AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY EVENING. THE FRONT LOOKS PRIMED TO PICK UP GREAT
LAKES MOISTURE AS IT DROPS. IT LOOKS QUITE PROBABLE THAT THE FRONT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PRETTY STOUT SNOW SQUALL FRIDAY EVENING.
WHILE IT MAY ONLY PRODUCE A QUICK INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION...IT
WILL LIKELY COME DOWN VERY ABRUPTLY.
FORECAST MODELS IN GREAT OVERALL AGREEMENT ON 500 MB TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS PROGGED TO ONLY BE AROUND 490 DM AND 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
-30 C...ABOUT AS COLD AS IS SEEN AROUND HERE. VERY RUDE AWAKENING
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH WIND CHILLS ALREADY WELL BELOW ZERO...AND
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS AND FALLING THROUGH THE
DAY. WIND CHILLS TEENS-20S BELOW ZERO ARE FIGURED BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME PLACES EVEN COLDER SATURDAY NIGHT. UNPROTECTED
VULNERABLE PLUMBING MAY EXPERIENCE FREEZING/BREAKING...AND ANYONE
NOT TAKING PROPER PRECAUTIONS OUTSIDE COULD EXPERIENCE FROSTBITE
HYPOTHERMIA. THIS ARCTIC AIR MASS SHOULD BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY.
DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER WILL ACTUALLY CRASH TO THE GROUND IN THIS
ARCTIC AIR MASS...SO LAKE EFFECT WILL BE LIMITED YET DRY FLUFFY
FLURRIES CAN BE EXPECTED OUT OF JUST ABOUT ANY CLOUD.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SUBZERO
LOWS EXPECTED...POSSIBLY EVEN MINUS DOUBLE DIGIT LOWS...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN ZONES NORTH THROUGH ONEIDA COUNTY. WINDS LOOK TO STAY
UP DUE TO CONTINUING GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW TO THE EAST AND HIGH TO
THE WEST AND THIS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER BUT MAY ACT TO
LIMIT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TO REALLY EXTREME VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 PM UPDATE...
ONLY SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH SLIDES EAST RIGHT OVER THE AREA BY LATE DAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS...YET WE START THE DAY WITH SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES SO VERY COLD ANYWAYS. STILL EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT,
THOUGH THIS WILL TEND TO BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY HAS THE
HIGH MOVES IN. HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CATSKILLS NORTH TO THE TUG HILL WITH LOW TO MID TEENS
ELSEWHERE.
PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR CORE OF ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT MODERATION BACK TO AT
LEAST SEASONAL. MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT BUT THERE IS MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING, TRACK, AND INTENSITY. FOR NOW, INDICATE
CHANCE OF SNOW IN GRIDS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE LOW COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING RAIN TO SOME AREAS
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LE BAND WILL LINGER IN THE SYR/RME CORRIDOR AND BRING OCNL IFR
CONDS INTO THU. BAND IS XPCTD TO GRADUALLY SLIP SOPUTH AND WILL
BRING OCNL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO ITH ANBD BGM LTR IN THE DAY.
WEAKENING FLOW AND DRIER AIR WILL ERODE THE LAKE EFFECT LVG GNRL
VFR CONDS TO ALL STATIONS AFT 00Z. GUSTY WEST WNDS TODAY WILL
BECOME LGTR AFT SUNSET THIS EVE.
.OUTLOOK...
THU NGT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE CEILING AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE
TO PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW AND BANDS OF MORE INTENSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF. LESS COVERAGE AND TIME
AFFECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS.
MON...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ016-017-044>046.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
036-037.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DGM/PCF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1145 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS REFLECTIVITYS INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO EASTERN MONTANA. SOME ENHANCEMENT ALSO
SHOWING UP IN NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. THUS LIGHT SNOW WILL BE INTO WILLISTON WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO...AND THEN INTO BISMARCK AROUND 6AM CST THURSDAY.
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET STREAK PROPAGATING ACROSS CENTRAL
MONTANA WILL PROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT UNTIL MID AFTERNOON
THURSDAY. THUS LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. NAM/RAP/HRRR BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALL
POINT TO A QUICK SATURATION THROUGH THE COLUMN OVERNIGHT. THUS
RISK OF PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL WANE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016
MAIN UPDATE LATE THIS EVENING WAS TO ADD A MENTION OF PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE BACK TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. LOWER LAYERS
HAVE BEEN MOISTENING UP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL. ALSO RECEIVED A REPORT OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AT
GRASSY BUTTE. LATEST RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
DRIZZLE MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS THIS AREA...BEFORE THE
ENTIRE COLUMN MOISTENS. THUS ADDED A MENTION BACK TO THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH 06Z AND THEN SHIFTED IT INTO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH 09Z.
TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE. ROLLA IN THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL HAS
DROPPED TO ZERO IN A SMALL CLEAR PATCH AND COULD DROP A FEW MORE
DEGREES. TREND THOUGH IS FOR STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES
AS CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT INTO
TODAY HAS MOVED WELL SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH
FROM MANITOBA INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA...WHILE A
LEE SIDE TROUGH IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CANADIAN
ROCKIES.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT AND
COMBINED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. UNTIL THEN...T/TD SPREAD REMAIN
PRETTY HIGH ACROSS THE WEST WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS OVER ALL BUT
THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. THUS THINK THE RISK OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVENING IS MINIMAL. AS WE HEAD INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN AND DRY LAYERS ALOFT...CONDUCIVE TO DRIZZLE QUICKLY MOISTEN
UP. THUS HAVE ALSO REMOVED THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WILL KEEP A MENTION OF FOG AS SURFACE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS
WE MOVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW/BOUNDARY STRETCHING THROUGH
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA WHILE HIGH
REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW
LINGERS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN UPPER JET STREAK WORKS ITS WAY OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY
LINGER OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED JET CONTINUES ON ITS WAY. CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...WHILE OVER THE SOUTHWEST LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME FOG WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
MAY DEVELOP. LATER TONIGHT BROAD SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION
RESULTING IN AN ELONGATED AREA OF MODEST LIFT OVER WESTERN PARTS
OF NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP AND
GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHERLY.
FOR THURSDAY...BROAD AREA OF MODEST LIFT SPREADS EASTERLY INTO
CENTRAL PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SNOW
SPREADING FROM WEST CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
STATE WHERE A BROAD SWATH OF 1 TO 3 INCHES MAY FALL. OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST...WARMER CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO PERIODS OF RAIN
DEVELOPING BY MID-DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
SEVERAL WAVES ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FIRST WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY. AS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE SHIFTS WEST...SNOW WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED...GENERALLY AROUND ONE INCH.
THE NEXT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT NORTH DAKOTA BEGINNING FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO THE REGION THAN PREVIOUS SYSTEMS
AS THIS WAVE WILL HAVE MORE OF A PACIFIC COMPONENT TO IT. WHILE
FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR TOO STRONG WITH THIS WAVE...PERSISTENT
LIGHT SNOW WITH BROAD SCALE LIFT OVER A 36 HOUR PERIOD COULD
BRING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INTO THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE. MODELS ARE JUST
BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM...SO DETAILS WILL BE FURTHER REFINED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AND AMOUNTS/PRECIP TYPE COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016
LIGHT SNOW AND FOG WILL RESULT IN CIGS/VSBYS TO DETERIORATE INTO
THE IFR/LIFR RANGE AT KISN/KDIK/KBIS 06Z-12Z THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 00Z FRIDAY. KMOT AND KJMS WILL REMAIN ON
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE LIGHT SNOW/PRECIPITATION SHIELD...THUS
VSBYS WILL REMAIN IN THE MVFR TO VFR CATEGORY...WHILE CIGS WILL BE
IN THE MVFR RANGE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
248 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE
EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE NORTHWEST SNOWBELT
AND ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. AN ARCTIC BLAST WILL DELIVER THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND WITH DANGEROUS
COLD AND WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
IN THE NEAR TERM...OUR LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS HAS BEGUN
TO WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED...MORE OR LESS ALONG THE
LINES OF THE HIGH RES MESO MODELS. STILL LOOKING AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A QUICK COATING OF SNOW IN A FEW LOCATIONS AS THIS
FEATURE SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
FOR THE LARGER PICTURE...PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND
FREQUENT LES FROM MEANDERING SNOW BANDS ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES
WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES EVERY 4 TO 6 HOURS THROUGH
TONIGHT...THOUGH PORTIONS OF NW WARREN COUNTY COULD SEE NEARLY
DOUBLE THOSE SNOWFALL RATES.
THE WELL-ALIGNED SFC-800 MB FLOW FROM ABOUT 270 DEGREES...WILL
VEER TO ABOUT 295 DEG OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWINGS
SE THROUGH THE AREA.
BASED ON THE MODERATELY STRONG...WELL ALIGNED...AND PERSISTENT 280-290
DEG FLOW THROUGH ABOUT 04Z FRIDAY...WE EXTENDED THE WINTER WX AND
LES ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS OUT IN TIME THROUGH 03Z FRIDAY...AND
EXPANDED THE WINT WX ADVIS NORTH TO COVER ELK AND CLEARFIELD
COUNTIES.
LATER TONIGHT...LOOK FOR VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
FLURRIES ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER...WHILE A FEW
BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS IN NARROW NW-SE STREAMERS OFF LAKE ERIE COULD
ADD AN ADDITIONAL LIGHT COATING FROM KAOO TO KUNV.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM 5-10F ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MTNS...TO THE UPPER TEENS IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. WIND CHILLS COULD
DIP TO NEAR -10F AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN
MTNS...AND IN THE ZERO TO 10 ABOVE RANGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE
ZONES...BUT WILL BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEG F ABOVE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN ANY OF THESE LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
PERSISTENT...MEAN BLYR FLOW FROM 280-290 DEGREES WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD STRATO CU WITH CLOUD TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENN
FALLING WITHIN THE FAVORABLE DGZ OF -12 TO -18C.
THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FLURRIES AND BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS FROM
NARROW...AND SLOWLY MEANDERING BANDS. MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND 3 KM NCAR ENSEMBLE WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
FORECASTING THE LOCATION...MVMT...AND SNOW FROM THESE FAIRLY WELL-
ORGANIZED BUT NARROW SNOW BANDS THAT WILL REACH INTO THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AT TIMES.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS OF A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS WHERE THE WINT WX AND LES ADVISORIES...AND LES WARNINGS
WILL CONTINUE.
MAX TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE ONLY 12-25F WHICH IS AROUND 15 DEG F
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE BULK OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS/LES SHOULD TAPER
OFF/LIFT TO THE NORTH...CLOSELY HUGGING THE I-90 CORRIDOR AS MEAN
BLYR WINDS BACK MORE TO THE WSW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS LIKELY WITH ARCTIC FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.
POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN US INTO NEXT WEEK. EMERGENCE OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW CREATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION MON-WED BUT WITH A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE. A PATTERN SHIFT TO PACIFIC ZONAL-TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH RISING/ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS IS FCST BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FAVORS A RETURN TO MILDER WEATHER.
LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON SUNDAY...AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE
FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
LIKELY WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ. VALLEY
TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA. WIND
CHILL HEADLINES ARE A GOOD BET AND PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE MADE NOW
TO PROTECT/PREPARE FOR THE UPCOMING COLD SNAP.
A MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD CONCERNING A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL EC
REMAINS MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS IN DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE AND HAS TRENDED EVEN FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH IS 10/12Z
RUN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW BUT THE SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC SNOW WILL RESULT IN PREDOMINANTLY IFR
VSBYS AT KBFD/KJST THIS MORNING. A SLOW MOVING SFC TROUGH LYING
ACROSS CENTRAL PA WILL ALSO PRODUCE OCNL IFR VSBYS AT KUNV UNTIL
IT/S PASSAGE ARND 11Z.
AFTER PASSAGE OF SFC TROUGH...EXPECT A TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT REGIME
BTWN 11Z-17Z...WITH PREDOMINANTLY IFR VSBYS FROM LGT SNOW AT
KBFD/KJST...POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS AT KAOO/KUNV AND A HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF VFR CONDS AT THE LOWER ELEV AIRFIELDS FURTHER EAST...INCLUDING
KIPT/KMDT/KLNS. SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD
CAUSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DWINDLE BY THIS AFTN...WITH
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDS RETURNING TO KBFD/KJST AND VFR
ELSEWHERE.
A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVR THE REGION IS ALREADY PRODUCING
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KTS AT KJST EARLY THIS AM...AND MDL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SIMILAR GUSTS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL PA
BY LATE AM...AS DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING WITHIN DEEPENING BOUNDARY
ALLOWS WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO GROUND LEVEL.
ARRIVAL OF SFC RIDGE SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
DIMINISHING WIND TO CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...PM SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS LIKELY...ESP W MTNS.
SAT...WINDY. SHSN/REDUCED VIS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AM.
SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
MON...PM SNOW POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ010-017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1200 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE
EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE NORTHWEST SNOWBELT
AND ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. AN ARCTIC BLAST WILL DELIVER THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND WITH DANGEROUS
COLD AND WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
IN THE NEAR TERM...OUR LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS HAS BEGUN
TO WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED...MORE OR LESS ALONG THE
LINES OF THE HIGH RES MESO MODELS. STILL LOOKING AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A QUICK COATING OF SNOW IN A FEW LOCATIONS AS THIS
FEATURE SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
FOR THE LARGER PICTURE...PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND
FREQUENT LES FROM MEANDERING SNOW BANDS ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES
WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES EVERY 4 TO 6 HOURS THROUGH
TONIGHT...THOUGH PORTIONS OF NW WARREN COUNTY COULD SEE NEARLY
DOUBLE THOSE SNOWFALL RATES.
THE WELL-ALIGNED SFC-800 MB FLOW FROM ABOUT 270 DEGREES...WILL
VEER TO ABOUT 295 DEG OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWINGS
SE THROUGH THE AREA.
BASED ON THE MODERATELY STRONG...WELL ALIGNED...AND PERSISTENT 280-290
DEG FLOW THROUGH ABOUT 04Z FRIDAY...WE EXTENDED THE WINTER WX AND
LES ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS OUT IN TIME THROUGH 03Z FRIDAY...AND
EXPANDED THE WINT WX ADVIS NORTH TO COVER ELK AND CLEARFIELD
COUNTIES.
LATER TONIGHT...LOOK FOR VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
FLURRIES ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER...WHILE A FEW
BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS IN NARROW NW-SE STREAMERS OFF LAKE ERIE COULD
ADD AN ADDITIONAL LIGHT COATING FROM KAOO TO KUNV.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM 5-10F ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MTNS...TO THE UPPER TEENS IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. WIND CHILLS COULD
DIP TO NEAR -10F AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN
MTNS...AND IN THE ZERO TO 10 ABOVE RANGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE
ZONES...BUT WILL BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEG F ABOVE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN ANY OF THESE LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT...MEAN BLYR FLOW FROM 280-290 DEGREES WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD STRATO CU WITH CLOUD TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENN
FALLING WITHIN THE FAVORABLE DGZ OF -12 TO -18C.
THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FLURRIES AND BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS FROM
NARROW...AND SLOWLY MEANDERING BANDS. MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND 3 KM NCAR ENSEMBLE WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
FORECASTING THE LOCATION...MVMT...AND SNOW FROM THESE FAIRLY WELL-
ORGANIZED BUT NARROW SNOW BANDS THAT WILL REACH INTO THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AT TIMES.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS OF A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS WHERE THE WINT WX AND LES ADVISORIES...AND LES WARNINGS
WILL CONTINUE.
MAX TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE ONLY 12-25F WHICH IS AROUND 15 DEG F
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE BULK OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS/LES SHOULD TAPER
OFF/LIFT TO THE NORTH...CLOSELY HUGGING THE I-90 CORRIDOR AS MEAN
BLYR WINDS BACK MORE TO THE WSW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS LIKELY WITH ARCTIC FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.
POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN US INTO NEXT WEEK. EMERGENCE OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW CREATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION MON-WED BUT WITH A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE. A PATTERN SHIFT TO PACIFIC ZONAL-TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH RISING/ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS IS FCST BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FAVORS A RETURN TO MILDER WEATHER.
LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON SUNDAY...AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE
FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
LIKELY WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ. VALLEY
TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA. WIND
CHILL HEADLINES ARE A GOOD BET AND PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE MADE NOW
TO PROTECT/PREPARE FOR THE UPCOMING COLD SNAP.
A MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD CONCERNING A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL EC
REMAINS MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS IN DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE AND HAS TRENDED EVEN FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH IS 10/12Z
RUN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW BUT THE SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL VFR CIGS AND VBSYS WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE OVERNIGHT. THE
SNOW CONVECTION SWITCHED FROM A WAVE TO A LINEAR BAND FEATURE. THE
HRRR DID A DECENT JOB OF SHOWING THE SWITCH...HOWEVER FAILED TO
SHOW THE INTENSITY. THE BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS
INTERACTION WITH ANY SNOW...WHICH COULD THEN BRING MVFR OR LOWER
VSBYS. THE BAND SHOULD BRIEFLY MOVE OVER UNV...BETWEEN 05 TO 07Z.
OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN TAF
SITES. BFD AND JST SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TOMORROW MORNING AND WILL
SLOWLY FADE BY TOMORROW EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR IN -SHSN ACROSS THE WRN
PENN MTNS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.
FRI...MVFR IN -SHSN...MAINLY LATE WITH STRONG COLD FRONT.
SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR OTHERWISE. WINDY.
SUN...MVFR IN -SHSN IN W MTNS EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.
MON...VFR POSSIBLE EARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PENN...THEN
LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUDS LIKELY WITH A FEW PERIODS OF SNOW
POSSIBLE...YIELDING MVFR TO IFR VSBYS AND CIGS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ010-
017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1141 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016
.AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE 06Z TAFS. THE THOU/TIAH/KHGX
VAD WIND PROFILERS ARE ALL SHOWING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING
TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS AROUND 2000 FT AGL. HOUSTON IAH RAP FORECAST
WIND PROFILES SHOW THESE WINDS MAINTAINING THIS INTENSITY JUST OFF
THE SURFACE THROUGH 12Z AND THIS RAISES CONCERNS FOR AT LEAST
BRIEF LLWS CONDITIONS FOR THE HOUSTON TERMINALS. AMENDMENTS TO
INCLUDE LLWS MAY BE NEEDED IF SURFACE WINDS BECOME LIGHTER THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY... WITH
DAYTIME MIXING ALLOWING STRONGER GUSTS AROUND 20 TO POSSIBLY 25
KNOTS TO REACH THE SURFACE. AFTER 12/06Z... PATCHY RADIATION FOG
DEVELOPMENT MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS WITH AT LEAST TEMPORARY
VISIBILITY/CEILING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
HUFFMAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/
DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES AND A COOL NIGHT AHEAD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
MOST OF THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN
AREAS. TWEAKED THE MIN TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE IN THE EAST WHERE THE
AIR IS A LITTLE DRIER AND LIGHTER WINDS AND COOLER START TO THE
EVENING...VERY MINOR CHANGES.
MAY NEED TO DO AN UPDATE FOR SOME PATCHY SHALLOW FOG IN THE SW
AREAS AROUND EDNA/WHARTON/PALACIOS/WEST COLUMBIA. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SOME VERY SHALLOW SATURATION OCCURRING BUT ATTM THINKING
JUST ENOUGH WIND MAY KEEP ANY FOG AT BAY.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 46 76 50 73 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 47 76 53 76 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 53 70 57 71 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
955 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY, ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
954 AM: MAY START HAMMERING I-80 AREA IN AN 11AM UPDATE...PENDING
A LITTLE MORE MODEL GUIDANCE. HRRR TRYING TO LATCH ONTO SNOW
SHOWERS IN MOST RECENT CYCLE...STILL WAY BEHIND REALITY.
930 AM ESTF: WE THINK 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN NARROW BANDS. ALREADY
UNCONFIRMED REPORT 1.5". HANDLING WITH SPS`S AND VIGOROUSLY
UPDATED LEGACY AND POINT CLICK PRODUCTS. SNOW MAP UPDATING NOW BUT
STILL GENERAL LESS THAN 1".
730 AM ESTF: UPDATED FOR THE SNOW BAND IN SE PA INTO SW NJ. ITS
PUTTING DOWN A DUSTING THAT IS CAUSING SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTY. A
NOWCAST IS POSTED AS WELL UPDATED SNOWMAP AND FORECASTS FOR THIS
MORNING. NO MODEL HAS THIS..N PART ..IN PART LES BAND TRAILING
INTO OUR AREA. IF WE SEE VSBY 1 MI OR LESS WE WILL UPGRADE TO AN
SPS. OUR RADAR CONTINUES IN VCP31 TO BETTER SEE THE FINER DETAILS,
PLUS ITS LOW TOP AND VERY LOW WATER CONTENT.
FROM THE MID SHIFT BELOW...
FOR A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER DAY, STILL HAVE THREE MAIN STORIES TO
TALK ABOUT FOR THE TODAY PERIOD.
SNOW...AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NJ THROUGH
AT LEAST MID DAY. IN ADDITION, THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME. THESE FACTORS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, OR MAYBE EVEN A FAST
MOVING SNOW SQUALL, ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION. WITH
PERSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION, MOISTURE IS LIMITED. SO EVEN THOUGH
SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS COULD BE ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO THE VERY COLD AIR
IN PLACE, STILL EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH.
WINDS...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z BEFORE IT STARTS TO DECREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THUS, EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS POINT THOUGH, WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
(SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 31 MPH FOR AT LEAST ONE HOUR OR GUSTS
OF 46 MPH) ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, SINCE THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE THE MIXING LAYER GETS VERY DEEP.
HAVING SAID THAT THOUGH, THE GFS DOES SHOW THAT THE SUSTAINED
CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED FOR LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO THE DE BAY,
SINCE THE DIRECTION IS A FAVORED DIRECTION FOR THE FUNNELING EFFECT
OVER THE BAY. IN ADDITION, VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW THAT 40 KT WINDS ARE
ABOUT 4000 TO 5000 FT MSL. IF THE MIXING LAYER GETS DEEP ENOUGH,
SOME OF THAT COULD MIX DOWN FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ. FOR NOW THOUGH, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL BE
REACHED SO WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
COLD...TODAY BEGINS THE COLD STRETCH WHICH WE ARE EXPECTING TO
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST
OF THE NEXT 4 DAYS, THE REGION SHOULD STAY BELOW FREEZING, AND
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE TEENS.
THIS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE WINDY
CONDITIONS, WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS THE REGION WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN
THE TEENS AT BEST.
TONIGHT...HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN, AND CONSEQUENTLY WINDS
DIMINISH, AND CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE. AS A RESULT, SHOULD SEE
CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS AND WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
RIGHT NOW SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR FORECAST THROUGH ANTICIPATE
BEEFING UP POPS LATE FRI DAY AFTERNOON IN THE POCONOS.
NO CHANGES ATTM FOR FRI NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUR UPDATED BRIEFING PACKAGE AT MIDDAY WILL INCLUDE MORE INFORMATION
ON THE UPCOMING DANGEROUS COLD, INCLUDING A POSSIBLE WIND CHILL
WATCH FOR SAT NIGHT WHICH IS ALREADY A HIGH CONFIDENCE LIKELIHOOD.
THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
THESE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER AN INCH.
BEHIND THE FRONT, IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE NW FLOW OFF OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FAVORED REGIONS TO
SEE SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF EASTERN PA AND
NW NJ. BUFKIT ANALYSIS YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 MPH GUSTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONG CAA WILL NOT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. MODELING HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY ON THE
IDEA THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C. WILL
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE DEGREE OF THE COLD AIR
BEING MODELED. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG
AS ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
THE COLD AND WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FROM -10 TO -30 BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE TO MAKE SURE TO
PREPARE FOR THE COLD WEATHER THAT IS COMING. PREPARATIONS INCLUDE
CHECKING PIPES AND MAKING SURE YOUR VEHICLE IS IN GOOD WORKING
CONDITION. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO AS WELL. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION ON RECORD
POTENTIAL.
PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z 2/11 OPERATIONAL
MODELS HAVE NARROWED THE GOAL POSTS OF POSSIBLE TRACKS FROM
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THIS ALSO MATCHES OR IS JUST EAST OF THE 12Z
2/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACK. THIS TRACK GOES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
AL/GA NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE THEN DUE NORTH UP THE
EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TWO MAIN FEATURES ARE
PRESENT TO TRACK WITH REGARDS TO MODELS OR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
CHANGING THE FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE RUNS. THIS
FIRST IS A LEADING SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES INTO THE THE OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY AND THE SECOND IS THE DEGREE OF MID- LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
THAT OCCUR AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WOULD
TEND TO PUSH THE OVERALL TROUGH WITH THIS STORM FURTHER EAST.
WHILE A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER MID- LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES LEADING TO A FURTHER WEST TRACK OF THE LOW. RIGHT NOW THE
FAVORED TRACK WOULD RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. IT WILL LIKELY BE WINDY AS WELL WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NEAR THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY: THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION.
SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS 2/11 00Z ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM
INTO THE REGION BY THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. BRIEF IFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS
VCNTY KPHL NORTH THROUGH KTTN, KABE, AND KRDG. TIMING UNCERTAIN
AND HANDLING AS NEAR TERM FCST. THESE MESOSCALE BANDS DONT APPEAR
TO BE WELL HANDLED BY OUR HRRR HRRRX PRODUCTS NOR RUC/RAP. NEW
12Z/11 NAM HAS A NEW BAND DEVELOPING NEAR AND N OF I-80 THIS AFTN.
LATEST HRRR TRYING TO GRASP THE SITN. CERTAINLY VERY LARGE LOW LVL
LAPSE RATES AS COLD POOL ALOFT TEMPORARILY LIFTS ENE.
BASICALLY THERE APPEARS TO BE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW - MOISTURE PLUME
CONNECTION TO THE STILL WIDE OPEN LERIE, THEN SEWD INTO SWRN PA
AND FROM THERE EWD TO NEAR PHL. THAT MAY REFOCUS NEAR I-80 OR I-78
THIS AFTN.
WEST WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 30 KT BY 16Z. ISOLATED 35 KT POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE EVENING BECOMING
CLEAR. GUSTY WNW WINDS 20-30 KT SLOWLY DIMINISHING DURING THE
NIGHT.
FRIDAY...VFR.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 25 KNOTS.
MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN BECOMING MVFR AND
IFR BY EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW.
&&
.MARINE...
GALES IN PROGRESS AND GLW CONTINUES AS POSTED. AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED
FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE OVER NIGHT HOURS ONCE THE GALES SUBSIDE.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS OCCURRING AND CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED ON
THE BAY AS WELL AS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.
OUTLOOK...
OUR AFTERNOON MARINE PRODUCTS WILL HEADLINE A NEW HIGH CONFIDENCE
GALE WATCH FOR THE PERIOD ROUGHLY 4 AM SATURDAY THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY.
SO WHILE, SEAS AND WINDS WILL START OUT FAIRLY LIGHT ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, A QUICK RAMP UP IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND REACH GALE FORCE BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE GALE FORCE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR GALES ON SATURDAY IS
VERY HIGH. SEAS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET FOR A PERIOD AS
WELL ON SATURDAY. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY START INCREASING AGAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH.
&&
.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.
ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL
DEGREES OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE
00Z/7 OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD
EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE,
KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.
SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE
WHERE WE ARE WITH SNOW COVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS
APPEAR ON THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
PLEASE NOTE... GUIDANCE IN PART IS BEING CLIMO BIASED HIGHER THAN
WHAT THE ONCOMING GFS/ECMWF LITERAL AIRMASS AND 2M TEMPS ARE INDICATING
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE URBAN AREAS SHOULD
BE ABOUT 25 COLDER THAN NORMAL. THAT MEANS GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR PHL
OF 5 AND 6 DEGREES APPEAR TOO WARM...ESPECIALLY WITH A NORMAL
PHILADELPHIA LOW ON SUNDAY OF 28.
HAVE SEEN THE 12Z/11 2M TEMPS FOR PHL...1 ABOVE RANGING DOWN TO
-11 AT KMPO AND AM LIKING THOSE VALUES AS WITHIN 2F OF THE
UPCOMING REALITY.
RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE
14TH, IF THEN. THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.
SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------
ABE 8 -1 IN 1979 14-1979
ACY 10 -6 IN 1979 13-1979
PHL 12 +2 IN 1979 14-1979
ILG 12 -4 IN 1979 13-1979
RDG 10 -4 IN 1983
TTN 9 0 IN 1916
GED 13 -7 IN 1979
MPO -1 -12 IN 1970
SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG 954
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES 954
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES
CLIMATE...954
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
930 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY, ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM ESTF: WE THINK 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN NARROW BANDS. ALREADY
UNCONFIRMED REPORT 1.5". HANDLING WITH SPS`S AND VIGOROUSLY
UPDATED LEGACY AND POINT CLICK PRODUCTS. SNOW MAP UPDATING NOW BUT
STILL GENERAL LESS THAN 1".
730 AM ESTF: UPDATED FOR THE SNOW BAND IN SE PA INTO SW NJ. ITS
PUTTING DOWN A DUSTING THAT IS CAUSING SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTY. A
NOWCAST IS POSTED AS WELL UPDATED SNOWMAP AND FORECASTS FOR THIS
MORNING. NO MODEL HAS THIS..N PART ..IN PART LES BAND TRAILING
INTO OUR AREA. IF WE SEE VSBY 1 MI OR LESS WE WILL UPGRADE TO AN
SPS. OUR RADAR CONTINUES IN VCP31 TO BETTER SEE THE FINER DETAILS,
PLUS ITS LOW TOP AND VERY LOW WATER CONTENT.
FROM THE MID SHIFT BELOW...
FOR A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER DAY, STILL HAVE THREE MAIN STORIES TO
TALK ABOUT FOR THE TODAY PERIOD.
SNOW...AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NJ THROUGH
AT LEAST MID DAY. IN ADDITION, THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME. THESE FACTORS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, OR MAYBE EVEN A FAST
MOVING SNOW SQUALL, ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION. WITH
PERSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION, MOISTURE IS LIMITED. SO EVEN THOUGH
SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS COULD BE ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO THE VERY COLD AIR
IN PLACE, STILL EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH.
WINDS...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z BEFORE IT STARTS TO DECREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THUS, EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS POINT THOUGH, WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
(SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 31 MPH FOR AT LEAST ONE HOUR OR GUSTS
OF 46 MPH) ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, SINCE THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE THE MIXING LAYER GETS VERY DEEP.
HAVING SAID THAT THOUGH, THE GFS DOES SHOW THAT THE SUSTAINED
CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED FOR LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO THE DE BAY,
SINCE THE DIRECTION IS A FAVORED DIRECTION FOR THE FUNNELING EFFECT
OVER THE BAY. IN ADDITION, VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW THAT 40 KT WINDS ARE
ABOUT 4000 TO 5000 FT MSL. IF THE MIXING LAYER GETS DEEP ENOUGH,
SOME OF THAT COULD MIX DOWN FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ. FOR NOW THOUGH, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL BE
REACHED SO WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
COLD...TODAY BEGINS THE COLD STRETCH WHICH WE ARE EXPECTING TO
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST
OF THE NEXT 4 DAYS, THE REGION SHOULD STAY BELOW FREEZING, AND
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE TEENS.
THIS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE WINDY
CONDITIONS, WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS THE REGION WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN
THE TEENS AT BEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN, AND CONSEQUENTLY WINDS DIMINISH, AND CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE. AS A RESULT, SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AND WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUR UPDATED BRIEFING PACKAGE AT MIDDAY WILL INCLUDE MORE INFORMATION
ON THE UPCOMING DANGEROUS COLD, INCLUDING A POSSIBLE WIND CHILL
WATCH FOR SAT NIGHT WHICH IS ALREADY A HIGH CONFIDENCE LIKELIHOOD.
THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
THESE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER AN INCH.
BEHIND THE FRONT, IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE NW FLOW OFF OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FAVORED REGIONS TO
SEE SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF EASTERN PA AND
NW NJ. BUFKIT ANALYSIS YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 MPH GUSTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONG CAA WILL NOT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. MODELING HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY ON THE
IDEA THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C. WILL
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE DEGREE OF THE COLD AIR
BEING MODELED. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG
AS ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
THE COLD AND WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FROM -10 TO -30 BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE TO MAKE SURE TO
PREPARE FOR THE COLD WEATHER THAT IS COMING. PREPARATIONS INCLUDE
CHECKING PIPES AND MAKING SURE YOUR VEHICLE IS IN GOOD WORKING
CONDITION. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO AS WELL. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION ON RECORD
POTENTIAL.
PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z 2/11 OPERATIONAL
MODELS HAVE NARROWED THE GOAL POSTS OF POSSIBLE TRACKS FROM
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THIS ALSO MATCHES OR IS JUST EAST OF THE 12Z
2/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACK. THIS TRACK GOES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
AL/GA NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE THEN DUE NORTH UP THE
EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TWO MAIN FEATURES ARE
PRESENT TO TRACK WITH REGARDS TO MODELS OR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
CHANGING THE FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE RUNS. THIS
FIRST IS A LEADING SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES INTO THE THE OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY AND THE SECOND IS THE DEGREE OF MID- LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
THAT OCCUR AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WOULD
TEND TO PUSH THE OVERALL TROUGH WITH THIS STORM FURTHER EAST.
WHILE A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER MID- LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES LEADING TO A FURTHER WEST TRACK OF THE LOW. RIGHT NOW THE
FAVORED TRACK WOULD RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. IT WILL LIKELY BE WINDY AS WELL WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NEAR THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY: THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION.
SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS 2/11 00Z ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM
INTO THE REGION BY THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. BRIEF IFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS
VCNTY KPHL NORTH THROUGH TTN ABE AND RDG. TIMING UNCERTAIN AND
HANDLING AS NEAR TERM FCST. THESE MESOSCALE BANDS DONT APPEAR TO
BE WELL HANDLED BY OUR HRRR HRRRX PRODUCTS NOR RUC/RAP. NEW 12Z/11
NAM HAS A NEW BAND DEVELOPING NEAR AND N OF I-80 THIS AFTN.
BASICALLY A LES CONNECTION FROM LERIE SEWD INTO SRN PA AND THEN
EWD TO NEAR PHL. THAT MAY REFOCUS NEAR I80 OR I78 THIS AFTN.
WEST WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 30 KT BY 16Z. ISOLATED 35 KT POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE EVENING BECOMING
CLEAR. GUSTY WNW WINDS 20-30 KT SLOWLY DIMINISHING DURING THE
NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 25 KNOTS.
MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN BECOMING MVFR AND
IFR BY EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW.
&&
.MARINE...
GALES IN PROGRESS AND GLW CONTINUES AS POSTED. AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED
FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE OVER NIGHT HOURS ONCE THE GALES SUBSIDE.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS OCCURRING AND CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED ON
THE BAY AS WELL AS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.
OUTLOOK...
OUR AFTERNOON MARINE PRODUCTS WILL HEADLINE A NEW HIGH CONFIDENCE
GALE WATCH FOR THE PERIOD ROUGHLY 4 AM SATURDAY THROUGH 8 AM
SUNDAY.
SO WHILE, SEAS AND WINDS WILL START OUT FAIRLY LIGHT ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, A QUICK RAMP UP IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND REACH GALE FORCE BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE GALE FORCE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR GALES ON SATURDAY IS
VERY HIGH. SEAS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET FOR A PERIOD AS
WELL ON SATURDAY. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY START INCREASING AGAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH.
&&
.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.
ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL
DEGREES OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE
00Z/7 OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD
EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE,
KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.
SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE
WHERE WE ARE WITH SNOW COVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS
APPEAR ON THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS AN ADDED NOTE HERE... GUIDANCE IN PART IS BEING CLIMO BIASED
HIGHER THAN WHAT THE ONCOMING GFS/ECMWF LITERAL AIRMASS AND 2M
TEMPS ARE INDICATING FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE URBAN AREAS SHOULD BE ABOUT 25 COLDER THAN NORMAL. THAT MEANS
GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR PHL OF 5 AND 6 DEGREES APPEAR TOO WARM...ESPECIALLY
WITH A NORMAL PHILADELPHIA LOW ON SUNDAY OF 28.
RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE
14TH, IF THEN.
SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------
ABE 8 -1 IN 1979 14-1979
ACY 10 -6 IN 1979 13-1979
PHL 12 +2 IN 1979 14-1979
ILG 12 -4 IN 1979 13-1979
RDG 10 -4 IN 1983
TTN 9 0 IN 1916
GED 13 -7 IN 1979
MPO -1 -12 IN 1970
SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 930A
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 930A
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 930A
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
541 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016
...Updated aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016
High pressure sinking south through the plains states will affect
temperatures to the negative side over the next couple of days.
Stratus was advancing across the Missouri valley into central
Nebraska and northern Kansas. The latest HRRR model runs have
continued to advect stratus of around 1000ft bases through the Hays
area and perhaps as far south as Dodge City after 12 UTC. So
stratus dissipation and local visibilities due to fog may be the
main forecast problems of the morning influencing temperature
trends. Afternoon highs will be not as warm today, however drier dew
points and downslope trajectories should still help temperatures
warm toward 70 in the far west.
.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016
Very low precipitation probabilities were included associated with
mainly a freezing drizzle and fog possibility on Friday night into
very early Saturday morning, however, this only glances the
northwest most sections of west central Kansas as the model signal
is focused over the northwest part of the state. A general cooling
trend each day ends by Sunday as the easterly surface wind gets
whipped around from the west once again as a shortwave dives through
the Northern Plains. A short period of weakly cyclonic flow aloft
will continue into the Monday timeframe and pops may need to be
revisited in the coming forecast cycles, but at this point the
confidence is extremely low for precipitation chances.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Friday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016
IFR stratus is currently spreading south toward central Kansas. It
should be moving into the Hays area shortly after the beginning of
this TAF issuance. The stratus should impact operations through the
morning hours but should erode east of the area by midday. Do not see
the stratus moving too much more to the southwest so Garden City and
Dodge City should remain VFR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 57 31 51 22 / 0 0 0 10
GCK 61 29 53 24 / 0 0 0 10
EHA 66 33 59 29 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 62 31 58 26 / 0 0 0 10
HYS 49 30 42 20 / 0 0 0 20
P28 54 32 52 22 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Gerard
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
524 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW STRATUS THAT HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SO FAR IT HAS MADE IT
ACROSS MOST OF THE NEBRASKA PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE KANSAS PORTION.
THE FIRST CONCERN WITH THIS IS THERE WAS QUITE A BIT OF SNOW MELTING
YESTERDAY SO THERE IS GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS HAVE BEEN FROM
THE NORTH AND FAIRLY LIGHT. WITH THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS ACROSS THE
AREA THERE COULD BE A LITTLE FOG. THE HRRR AND THE SREF BOTH HAVE
THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES IN THE WEST. SO FAR THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
INDICATION OF ANY FOG. WILL KEEP SOME MENTION OF PATCHY FOG WITH A
FEW AREAS OF FOG IN THE FAR WEST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE IF THE
VISIBILITY DROPS AS WE GET CLOSER TO SUNRISE. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
SEEMS TO BE THE MODELS THAT BRING THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES ALSO HAVE
EASTERLY WINDS AND THE CURRENT WINDS ARE MORE NORTH.
THERE COULD BE A LITTLE OF THE PATCHY FOG THAT LINGERS INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. THE CLOUDS SHOULD HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...BUT TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY THE CLOUDS SHOULD START TO
RECEDE TO THE EAST AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SHOULD HELP TO MOVE THE CLOUDS OUT
OF THE AREA...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE VERY COLD BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PLAINS SITS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EAST CAUSING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND
INTO SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH...THE LOWEST LEVELS
REMAIN THE MOST SATURATED...BUT EARLY ON THERE IS ENOUGH DEPTH AND
IT IS COLD ENOUGH TO BEGIN AS SNOW BEFORE FREEZING DRIZZLE LOOKS TO
BE THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. DRYER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT TO PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE FORECAST.
A MORE POTENT DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO BE OVER NORTH AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA...BUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY OCCUR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THE COLUMN OF AIR WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO BE THE
MAIN PRECIP TYPE WITH THIS.
SUNDAY AFTER THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY. DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL AID TEMPERATURES TO RISE BACK INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
AREA.
ANOTHER BRIEF DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS
COULD BRING ANOTHER BRIEF CHANCE FOR PRECIP...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON THIS FEATURE.
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL HAVE A WARMING TREND AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
EACH DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO
THE 50S BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 521 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016
LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE LOWEST CEILINGS WILL BE EARLY THIS MORNING THEN
CEILINGS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AND THERE COULD BE A FEW IN AND
OUT PERIODS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE SEEN LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FOG THIS MORNING SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...BILLINGS WRIGHT
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1101 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WITH AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW TODAY. TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
SHIFTING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS BUFFALO AND
WATERTOWN AREAS. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT EXPECT DANGEROUSLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES TODAY IN A MULTIBANDED
ORIENTATION DUE TO SHORTER FETCH ACROSS THE LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EXPAND NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD WEAKEN THE LAKE SNOWS SOME FROM WHAT WE SAW
LAST NIGHT AS THE CAPPING INVERSION LOWERS TO AROUND 8KFT.
KBUF RADAR SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF SNOW WITH A GEORGIAN BAY
CONNECTION EXTENDING FROM NIAGARA COUNTY SOUTHEAST TO NORTHERN
ERIE...GENESEE AND LIVINGSTON COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THIS MORNING WHICH WOULD BRING IT ACROSS METRO
BUFFALO AND INTO WYOMING COUNTIES. THIS BAND COULD BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF INTENSE SNOWS WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY AND A QUICK FRESH
COATING OF MAYBE AN INCH OF SNOW AS IT SHIFTS SOUTH.
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE MULTIPLE NARROW BANDS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE
COUNTIES WHERE WARNINGS WILL REMAIN UP. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM NIAGARA EAST TO MONROE COUNTIES FROM THESE
LAKE SNOWS.
FURTHER SOUTH...LAKE SNOWS HAVE LARGELY SETTLED SOUTH TOWARD ERIE PA
WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE
LATEST HRRR MODEL INDICATES THE NARROW BAND OF SNOW NEAR ERIE WILL
SHIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A POTENTIAL FOR 2-3 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW WHICH
IS WHY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT DESPITE
THIS THE CURRENT LULL IN ACTIVITY.
KTYX RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SEVERAL NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IMPACTING NORTHEAST WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO COUNTY
WHICH MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES THROUGH TODAY. THERE ARE
ALSO SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH DRIFTING ACROSS JEFFERSON
AND LEWIS COUNTIES WHICH SHOULD ONLY BRING UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH
THROUGH TODAY.
OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS...THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION WILL JUST EXPERIENCE MUCH LIGHTER AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED
TRANSIENT LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH
ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE IT WILL
BE COLD AND ON THE BRISK SIDE AGAIN...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY
RANGING FROM AROUND 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN TO THE MID
TEENS ELSEWHERE.
TONIGHT...A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN WEAKER LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THIS EVENING...WITH THIS ACTIVITY BEING HELD MORE
IN CHECK BY THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION...
WHICH WILL RUN BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KFT OFF LAKE ERIE...AND WILL DROP
TO BETWEEN 4 AND 5 KFT OFF LAKE ONTARIO. AFTER THAT TIME...GRADUAL
BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE LAKE
BANDS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...
WITH THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND
THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL REGION BY
DAYBREAK. WHILE A CONTINUED LOWER CAP AND INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW IT SHOULD KEEP THE MIGRATING LAKE
SNOWS FROM BECOMING TERRIBLY ORGANIZED...THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME INCREASE
IN STRENGTH LATE...ENOUGH FOR THE BANDS TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION DURING THEIR NORTHWARD MIGRATION.
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
FROM THESE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WHEN
DEEPENING MOISTURE AND A RISING CAP OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING ARCTIC BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A NOTEWORTHY UPTICK
IN BAND ORGANIZATION...MORE ON WHICH IS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION BELOW.
OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE SNOWS...EXPECT A QUIET AND LARGELY DRY NIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TO THE 5 TO 10 ABOVE RANGE ELSEWHERE. GIVEN A DEVELOPING
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...THESE WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE GIVING WAY TO SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE SNOWS WILL REORGANIZE AND INTENSIFY FRIDAY AS THE FLOW BACKS
TO SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA
AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING ARCTIC BOUNDARY.
OFF LAKE ERIE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY WELL
ALIGNED SOUTHWEST FLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY FRIDAY.
INITIALLY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
LOW AND LONG FETCH DOWN THE LAKE...EXPECT A FAIRLY CONSOLIDATED AND
INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BAND TO DEVELOP. CONSENSUS HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. THE RGEM ALONG WITH THE
NAM/GFS ALL SUGGEST A STRONG CONVERGENCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO BUFFALO METRO AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. FAVORABLE
LAKE PARAMETERS WILL EXIST WITH PLENTY OF OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS APPROACH 10K FEET WITHIN A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS WYOMING AND
GENESEE COUNTIES...AND EVEN PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS NIAGARA AND
ORLEANS COUNTIES IF THE FLOW CAN BACK ENOUGH. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE HEAVIEST BAND.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY SIMILAR TO LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL NOT ONLY TAP INTO
MOISTURE FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...BUT ALSO MOISTURE FROM
WHATEVER FORMS OFF LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR WATERTOWN AND
VICINITY...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN
LEWIS COUNTY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -16C AND INVERSION HEIGHTS
FORECAST TO RISE TO NEARLY 15K FT AND A FAVORABLY DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH ZONE SHOULD PROVIDE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOWS. WILL MAINTAIN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY
AND ADD LEWIS COUNTY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS
REACHING THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY.
ON FRIDAY EVENING...A POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY CAPTURE AND MERGE WITH THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A VERY HEAVY SNOW
SQUALL PASSING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WHERE THE LAKE
CONTRIBUTION MAXIMIZES. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE DROPS
850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -30C AT BUFFALO DURING THE DAY AT
BUFFALO...WITH -33C ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY
MONTH IS -32C.
THIS WILL RESULT IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE ABOVE ZERO.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE BELOW ZERO IN THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. PERSISTENT WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT EVEN SO IT WILL BE VERY
COLD WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS REGION-WIDE. LOWS OF -20F OR COLDER ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NO MODERATING LAKE INFLUENCE.
THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE WINDS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. ISSUING A WIND CHILL WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA...AREAS NEAR THE LAKESHORES MAY ONLY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
HOWEVER NEED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS DANGEROUSLY COLD WEATHER.
THE FRIGID NORTH FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. DESPITE THE
EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY DRY AND
TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY. 12Z GUIDANCE IS A
BIT FASTER MOVING THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY TO TAPER OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
AFTER THIS THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF
IS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS/GGEM. THE ECMWF HAS
CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPED A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH
SIGNIFICANT QPF ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WOULD FALL AS RAIN OR
SNOW. THE GGEM/GFS HAVE THIS SYSTEM BUT KEEP IT WELL TO OUR
EAST...AND INSTEAD ARE A BIT COLDER WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THIS
GUIDANCE...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND ATTENDANT IFR/LIFR WILL BE FOUND EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PREVAILING
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS OF THE DAY TO
COME THIS MORNING...WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH
DIMINISHING UPSTREAM CONNECTIONS...THE INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR
ALOFT...AND A LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION.
FROM THE LATE EVENING HOURS ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT... GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND
THEN WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT
WILL RESULT IN WEAKER LAKE SNOWS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD...WITH
THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND THE
LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL REGION BY 12Z
FRIDAY. EXPECT IFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITHIN THE MIGRATING LAKE
SNOWS...WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS THE RULE ELSEWHERE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...IFR/MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND AREAS OF
HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...
WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.
IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID
AIRMASS FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY
HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR NYZ007-008.
WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ001>003-019-020.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ010-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
LOZ042>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR/JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/SMITH
SHORT TERM...LEVAN/TMA
LONG TERM...APFFEL/LEVAN
AVIATION...JJR/SMITH
MARINE...JJR/SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1029 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
WINDS WILL THEN TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
OUT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN
THE LAKE SNOWS LIFTING NORTHWARD TO THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN
AREAS. THE ARCTIC FRONT ITSELF WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING WHILE BRINGING A BURST OF SNOW
TO MOST AREAS... WITH DOWNRIGHT FRIGID CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILLS THEN FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES TODAY IN A MULTIBANDED
ORIENTATION DUE TO SHORTER FETCH ACROSS THE LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EXPAND NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD WEAKEN THE LAKE SNOWS SOME FROM WHAT WE SAW
LAST NIGHT AS THE CAPPING INVERSION LOWERS TO AROUND 8KFT.
KBUF RADAR SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF SNOW WITH A GEORGIAN BAY
CONNECTION EXTENDING FROM NIAGARA COUNTY SOUTHEAST TO NORTHERN
ERIE...GENESEE AND LIVINGSTON COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THIS MORNING WHICH WOULD BRING IT ACROSS METRO
BUFFALO AND INTO WYOMING COUNTIES. THIS BAND COULD BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF INTENSE SNOWS WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY AND A QUICK FRESH
COATING OF MAYBE AN INCH OF SNOW AS IT SHIFTS SOUTH.
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE MULTIPLE NARROW BANDS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE
COUNTIES WHERE WARNINGS WILL REMAIN UP. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM NIAGARA EAST TO MONROE COUNTIES FROM THESE
LAKE SNOWS.
FURTHER SOUTH...LAKE SNOWS HAVE LARGELY SETTLED SOUTH TOWARD ERIE PA
WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE
LATEST HRRR MODEL INDICATES THE NARROW BAND OF SNOW NEAR ERIE WILL
SHIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A POTENTIAL FOR 2-3 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW WHICH
IS WHY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT DESPITE
THIS THE CURRENT LULL IN ACTIVITY.
KTYX RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SEVERAL NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IMPACTING NORTHEAST WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO COUNTY
WHICH MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES THROUGH TODAY. THERE ARE
ALSO SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH DRIFTING ACROSS JEFFERSON
AND LEWIS COUNTIES WHICH SHOULD ONLY BRING UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH
THROUGH TODAY.
OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS...THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION WILL JUST EXPERIENCE MUCH LIGHTER AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED
TRANSIENT LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH
ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE IT WILL
BE COLD AND ON THE BRISK SIDE AGAIN...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY
RANGING FROM AROUND 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN TO THE MID
TEENS ELSEWHERE.
TONIGHT...A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN WEAKER LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THIS EVENING...WITH THIS ACTIVITY BEING HELD MORE
IN CHECK BY THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION...
WHICH WILL RUN BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KFT OFF LAKE ERIE...AND WILL DROP
TO BETWEEN 4 AND 5 KFT OFF LAKE ONTARIO. AFTER THAT TIME...GRADUAL
BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE LAKE
BANDS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...
WITH THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND
THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL REGION BY
DAYBREAK. WHILE A CONTINUED LOWER CAP AND INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW IT SHOULD KEEP THE MIGRATING LAKE
SNOWS FROM BECOMING TERRIBLY ORGANIZED...THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME INCREASE
IN STRENGTH LATE...ENOUGH FOR THE BANDS TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION DURING THEIR NORTHWARD MIGRATION.
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
FROM THESE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WHEN
DEEPENING MOISTURE AND A RISING CAP OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING ARCTIC BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A NOTEWORTHY UPTICK
IN BAND ORGANIZATION...MORE ON WHICH IS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION BELOW.
OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE SNOWS...EXPECT A QUIET AND LARGELY DRY NIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TO THE 5 TO 10 ABOVE RANGE ELSEWHERE. GIVEN A DEVELOPING
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...THESE WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE GIVING WAY TO SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE SNOWS WILL REORGANIZE AND INTENSIFY FRIDAY AS THE FLOW BACKS
TO SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA
AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING ARCTIC BOUNDARY.
OFF LAKE ERIE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY WELL
ALIGNED SOUTHWEST FLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY FRIDAY.
INITIALLY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
LOW AND LONG FETCH DOWN THE LAKE...EXPECT A FAIRLY CONSOLIDATED AND
INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BAND TO DEVELOP. CONSENSUS HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. THE RGEM ALONG WITH THE
NAM/GFS ALL SUGGEST A STRONG CONVERGENCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO BUFFALO METRO AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. FAVORABLE
LAKE PARAMETERS WILL EXIST WITH PLENTY OF OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS APPROACH 10K FEET WITHIN A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS WYOMING AND
GENESEE COUNTIES...AND EVEN PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS NIAGARA AND
ORLEANS COUNTIES IF THE FLOW CAN BACK ENOUGH. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE HEAVIEST BAND.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY SIMILAR TO LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL NOT ONLY TAP INTO
MOISTURE FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...BUT ALSO MOISTURE FROM
WHATEVER FORMS OFF LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR WATERTOWN AND
VICINITY...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN
LEWIS COUNTY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -16C AND INVERSION HEIGHTS
FORECAST TO RISE TO NEARLY 15K FT AND A FAVORABLY DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH ZONE SHOULD PROVIDE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOWS. WILL MAINTAIN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY
AND ADD LEWIS COUNTY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS
REACHING THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY.
ON FRIDAY EVENING...A POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY CAPTURE AND MERGE WITH THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A VERY HEAVY SNOW
SQUALL PASSING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WHERE THE LAKE
CONTRIBUTION MAXIMIZES. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE DROPS
850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -30C AT BUFFALO DURING THE DAY AT
BUFFALO...WITH -33C ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY
MONTH IS -32C.
THIS WILL RESULT IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE ABOVE ZERO.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE BELOW ZERO IN THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. PERSISTENT WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT EVEN SO IT WILL BE VERY
COLD WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS REGION-WIDE. LOWS OF -20F OR COLDER ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NO MODERATING LAKE INFLUENCE.
THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE WINDS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. ISSUING A WIND CHILL WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA...AREAS NEAR THE LAKESHORES MAY ONLY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
HOWEVER NEED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS DANGEROUSLY COLD WEATHER.
THE FRIGID NORTH FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. DESPITE THE
EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY DRY AND
TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY. 12Z GUIDANCE IS A
BIT FASTER MOVING THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY TO TAPER OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
AFTER THIS THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF
IS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS/GGEM. THE ECMWF HAS
CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPED A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH
SIGNIFICANT QPF ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WOULD FALL AS RAIN OR
SNOW. THE GGEM/GFS HAVE THIS SYSTEM BUT KEEP IT WELL TO OUR
EAST...AND INSTEAD ARE A BIT COLDER WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THIS
GUIDANCE...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND ATTENDANT IFR/LIFR WILL BE FOUND EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PREVAILING
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS OF THE DAY TO
COME THIS MORNING...WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH
DIMINISHING UPSTREAM CONNECTIONS...THE INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR
ALOFT...AND A LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION.
FROM THE LATE EVENING HOURS ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT... GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND
THEN WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT
WILL RESULT IN WEAKER LAKE SNOWS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD...WITH
THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND THE
LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL REGION BY 12Z
FRIDAY. EXPECT IFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITHIN THE MIGRATING LAKE
SNOWS...WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS THE RULE ELSEWHERE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...IFR/MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND AREAS OF
HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...
WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.
IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID
AIRMASS FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY
HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR NYZ007-008.
WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ001>003-019-020.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ010-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
LOZ042>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...APFFEL/LEVAN
AVIATION...JJR/SMITH
MARINE...JJR/SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
639 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT IN PARTS
OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR MASS SINCE LAST
WINTER. WIND CHILLS WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW...WELL BELOW
ZERO...SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A MODERATING TREND IS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
315 AM UPDATE...
WANTED TO SEND OUT AN "EARLY" UPDATE TO REFLECT ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION REGARDING OUR LAKE EFFECT EVENT. WILL SEND OUT A
SEPARATE AFD FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TO GO OVER THE DANGEROUS
COLD OVER THE WEEKEND. FIRST THINGS FIRST, THE LAKE EFFECT. SEE
OUR WEBSITE FOR OUR LATEST SNOWFALL MAP THAT I JUST POSTED.
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. I DID SHIFT THE
HEAVIER AXIS OF SNOW FARTHER NORTH, TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS FROM
YESTERDAY EVENING THROUGH NOW. THE CHANGE WILL INCREASE AMOUNTS IN
WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY QUITE A BIT, WHILE DROPPING OFF
SHARPLY TOWARD THE CITY OF UTICA. I KEPT NORTHERN ONONDAGA IN THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL PROBABLY END UP BEING
LOWER OVERALL THAN WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA. THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY IS A REFLECTION OF WHAT WE EXPECT TO
COME, NOT UNDERSTANDING WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW HERE YET. WHILE
THE FORECAST GOING FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THIS POINT
FORWARD, WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW AT ALL FROM THE NEAR THE CITY
OF SYRACUSE SOUTH. THUS I HAVE ADJUSTED TOTALS DOWN ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONONDAGA/MADISON COUNTIES, ALONG WITH NORTHERN
CORTLAND/CHENANGO/OTSEGO.
WHILE THE BAND HAS BEEN MAINLY NORTH OF KSYR AND HAS EVEN WAVERED
BACK INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE BAND WILL
SINK SOUTH BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOW A MEAN WIND OF 275 NOW, ABRUPTLY SHIFTING TOWARD 290 BY 12Z,
THEN LOCKING IN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. KBUF RADAR SHOWS THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE BAND NEAR KROC IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF
THIS CHANGE AND WILL FOLLOW. SO WHILE THE EVENT HAS PLAYED OUT
WELL THUS FAR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY, MANY IN METRO
SYRACUSE AND ALONG THE THRUWAY MAY BE WONDERING WHAT LAKE SNOWS?
DON`T LET YOUR GUARD DOWN YET AS HEAVIER SNOWS WILL SHIFT SOUTH
TODAY. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS GRADUALLY LOWERING TOWARD 5KFT BY
LATE AFTERNOON, THE OVERALL INTENSITY WILL BE HIGHEST THIS
MORNING, THEN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH MID MORNING WILL STILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2"+
RANGE. THE FLOW REMAINS AROUND 290-300 THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT, BEFORE
THE FLOW BACKS ENOUGH TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST TO LIFT THE BAND OUT OF
OUR AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY. IN ALL A WIDESPREAD, LONG
DURATION 6"+ LOOKS GOOD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY, WITH CLOSER TO
1 1/2 FEET OVER WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY. I CONTINUE TO MENTION BLOW
AND DRIFTING SNOW WITHIN AND NEAR THE SNOW BANDS THEMSELVES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
OVERVIEW...SNOW SQUALLS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONT
THAT WILL DELIVER BRUTAL COLD SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL RIVAL WHAT WE SAW LAST FEBRUARY.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT....MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE QUIET WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. FRIDAY EVENING THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 0Z AND 06Z SATURDAY. SNOW
SQUALLS LOOK LIKELY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR POOR VISIBILITY AND
SNOWFALL RATES OF MORE THAN AN INCH PER HOUR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
STEEP LAPSE RATES OF MORE THAN 8.0 C/KM UP THROUGH 650 MB! IN
ADDITION STRONG OMEGA (LIFT/RISING AIR IN THE ATMOSPHERE) IS FOUND
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE RIGHT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. THINK BIG
FLAKES, HIGH EFFICIENCY OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS. WILL ADD CHANCE OF
HEAVY SNOW FOR THE FRIDAY EVENING FORECAST. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A
FEW INCHES LIKELY BUT AGAIN IT WILL BE THE RATE OF FALL WHICH WILL
CAUSE POOR VISIBILITIES AND DANGEROUS ROADS.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...BRUTAL COLD. 850 TEMPS FALL TO BETWEEN
-28C AND -30C! "OFFICIAL" HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS AT
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW ZERO FOR
TEMPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN NY STATE! THIS ALONE IS
COLD BUT A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OCEAN STORM AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH WIND FOR WIND CHILL
READINGS BETWEEN -10 AND -30. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR EXTREME COLD AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN OUR
HWO, ON SOCIAL MEDIA, AND IN OUR ONLINE BRIEFING PACKAGE FOUND AT
WEATHER.GOV/BGM UNDER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING AT THE BOTTOM OF THE
PAGE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE, WITH -20
READINGS POSSIBLE IN OUR COLDER SPOTS. IMPRESSIVE COLD AND THE
ONLY SILVER LINING IS THE FACT IT WON`T LAST LONG. SEE BELOW FOR
MORE ON MILDER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 PM UPDATE...
ONLY SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH SLIDES EAST RIGHT OVER THE AREA BY LATE DAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS...YET WE START THE DAY WITH SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES SO VERY COLD ANYWAYS. STILL EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT,
THOUGH THIS WILL TEND TO BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY HAS THE
HIGH MOVES IN. HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CATSKILLS NORTH TO THE TUG HILL WITH LOW TO MID TEENS
ELSEWHERE.
PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR CORE OF ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT MODERATION BACK TO AT
LEAST SEASONAL. MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT BUT THERE IS MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING, TRACK, AND INTENSITY. FOR NOW, INDICATE
CHANCE OF SNOW IN GRIDS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE LOW COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING RAIN TO SOME AREAS
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LE SNOW BAND IS XPCTD TO DROP SWRD ACROSS RME AND STALL IN THE SYR
AREA FOR SVRL HRS TODAY. THIS WEILL BRING BRIEF IFR CONDS TO
RME...AND PROLONGED IFR CIGS AND VSBY TO SYR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
ELSEWHERE...SCT SNOW SHWRS WILL BRING BRIEF LWR CONDS BUT MUCH OF
THE DAY WILL BE VFR ELSEWHERE. BAND IS XPCTD TO LIFT NWRD LTR THIS
EVE LVG VFR CONDS AT ALL STATIONS.
.OUTLOOK...
FRI THRU SUN...VARIABLE CEILING AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW AND BANDS OF MORE INTENSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF. LESS COVERAGE AND TIME
AFFECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS.
MON...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ016-017-044>046.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
036-037.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1035 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WIND WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS GOING ALL DAY. AN ARCTIC BLAST WILL DELIVER THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND WITH DANGEROUS
COLD AND WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
840 AM UPDATE...
MULTIPLE NARROW BANDS OF SNOW SQUALLS CONTINUE TO STREAM SE AND
WELL INLAND FROM THE GLAKES THIS MORNING...MAKING IT ALL THE WAY
INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY REGION. BRIEF...GREATLY
REDUCED VSBYS POSE A SIGNIF IMPACT TO TRAVEL WITHIN THESE VERY
NARROW BUT RATHER INTENSE SNOW BANDS THAT COULD DROP UP TO ONE
INCH OF FLUFF IN JUST A 15-20 MINUTE PERIOD.
LATEST HRRR AND LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES VIA THE NAM INDICATE
THAT THE TARGET AREA FOR ONE OR TWO EXTENSIVE/INTENSE SQUALL BANDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NE HALF OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS MEAN BLYR
WINDS BACK JUST 5-10 DEGREES. THESE SNOW BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE A GOOD DUAL LAKE CONNECTION FLOWING OVER THE LONG AXIS OF
LAKE HURON. WILL FORECAST MAINLY A COATING TO ONE INCH ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM KUNV TO KSEG...HOWEVER SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
CENTRAL MTNS AND WEST BRANCH/MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY COULD SEE ANOTHER
QUICK 2-3 INCHES OF FLUFFY/WIND BLOWN SNOW BETWEEN 14Z AND 23Z.
SOME LOCATIONS MAY NEED TO BE PLACED IN A SHORT FUSED WINT
WEATHER ADVIS DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THIS MESOSCALE FEATURE
SETS UP.
WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES OVER THE LAURELS
AND WRN MTNS...AND LES WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR THE FAR NW
SNOWBELT.
THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH COLDER TODAY WITH WIND CHILLS
BETWEEN -10 AND +10 ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ALL DAY LONG. THE
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL JUST BE A TASTE OF WHAT LOOKS LIKE IS ON
THE HORIZON FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE SNOW SHOWERS DO BEGIN TO TAPER OFF IN THE LATE AFTN AND
EVENING. THE ACCUMS SHOULD BECOME NEGLIGABLE NOT TOO LONG AFTER
SUNSET. THE END TIMING OF THE ADVYS/WARNING WILL BE KEPT AS IS AT
03Z. HOWEVER...MANY PLACES S OF ELK CO WILL SEE JUST A FLURRY OR
TWO IN THE EVENING. TEMPS DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT AS
SOME CLEARING TAKES PLACE IN THE NW...BUT THE CALM AIR IN THE SE
COULD CAUSE THE TEMPS THERE TO BECOME COLDER. SNOW PACK AND CALM
AIR DO WONDERS TO MAKE IT COLDER THAN WE THINK IT WILL BE. WILL
PAINT IN A DIP AROUND THE TYPICAL FRIDGES OF SEG AND THV - MAKING
THEM 3-5F COLDER THAN THE SURROUNDING LOCALES.
THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY SHOULD BE QUIET SAVE A QUICK INCREASE IN
CLOUDS FROM THE SW AS SOME MEAGER WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN AHEAD OF
THE WELL-ADVERTISED ARCTIC FRONT. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL PROBABLY
BREAK OUT/SLIDE IN DURING THE AFTN. TEMPS WILL TRY TO GET INTO THE
20S ALL OVER BUT THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER IN THE NW WILL LIKELY
KEEP THEM U20.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS LIKELY WITH ARCTIC FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.
POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN US INTO NEXT WEEK. EMERGENCE OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW CREATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION MON-WED BUT WITH A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE. A PATTERN SHIFT TO PACIFIC ZONAL-TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH RISING/ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS IS FCST BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FAVORS A RETURN TO MILDER WEATHER.
LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON SUNDAY...AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE
FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
LIKELY WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ. VALLEY
TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA. WIND
CHILL HEADLINES ARE A GOOD BET AND PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE MADE NOW
TO PROTECT/PREPARE FOR THE UPCOMING COLD SNAP.
A MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD CONCERNING A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL EC
REMAINS MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS IN DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE AND HAS TRENDED EVEN FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH IS 10/12Z
RUN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW BUT THE SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC SNOW WILL RESULT IN MAINLY IFR VSBYS AT
KBFD/KJST FEW NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DRYING/DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL
RESULT IN PROGRESSIVELY MORE FAVORABLE CONDS EAST OF THE
MTNS...WITH OCNL MVFR CIGS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE AT KAOO/KUNV AND A
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDS AT KIPT/KMDT/KLNS. SFC
RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD CAUSE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO DWINDLE THIS AFTN...WITH PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDS
RETURNING TO KBFD/KJST AND VFR ELSEWHERE.
A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING WITHIN DEEPENING BOUNDARY
ALLOWS WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO GROUND LEVEL.
ARRIVAL OF SFC RIDGE SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
DIMINISHING WIND TO CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...PM SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS LIKELY...ESP W MTNS.
SAT...WINDY. SHSN/REDUCED VIS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AM.
SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
MON...PM SNOW POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ010-017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...ROSS/FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
856 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WIND WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS GOING ALL DAY. AN ARCTIC BLAST WILL DELIVER THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND WITH DANGEROUS
COLD AND WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
840 AM UPDATE...
MULTIPLE NARROW BANDS OF SNOW SQUALLS CONTINUE TO STREAM SE AND
WELL INLAND FROM THE GLAKES THIS MORNING...MAKING IT ALL THE WAY
INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY REGION. BRIEF...GREATLY
REDUCED VSBYS POSE A SIGNIF IMPACT TO TRAVEL WITHIN THESE VERY
NARROW BUT RATHER INTENSE SNOW BANDS THAT COULD DROP UP TO ONE
INCH OF FLUFF IN JUST A 15-20 MINUTE PERIOD.
LATEST HRRR AND LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES VIA THE NAM INDICATE
THAT THE TARGET AREA FOR ONE OR TWO EXTENSIVE/INTENSE SQUALL BANDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NE HALF OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS MEAN BLYR
WINDS BACK JUST 5-10 DEGREES. THESE SNOW BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE A GOOD DUAL LAKE CONNECTION FLOWING OVER THE LONG AXIS OF
LAKE HURON. WILL FORECAST MAINLY A COATING TO ONE INCH ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM KUNV TO KSEG...HOWEVER SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
CENTRAL MTNS AND WEST BRANCH/MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY COULD SEE ANOTHER
QUICK 2-3 INCHES OF FLUFFY/WIND BLOWN SNOW BETWEEN 14Z AND 23Z.
SOME LOCATIONS MAY NEED TO BE PLACED IN A SHORT FUSED WINT
WEATHER ADVIS DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THIS MESOSCALE FEATURE
SETS UP.
WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES OVER THE LAURELS
AND WRN MTNS...AND LES WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR THE FAR NW
SNOWBELT.
THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH COLDER TODAY WITH WIND CHILLS
BETWEEN -10 AND +10 ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ALL DAY LONG. THE
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL JUST BE A TASTE OF WHAT LOOKS LIKE IS ON
THE HORIZON FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE SNOW SHOWERS DO BEGIN TO TAPER OFF IN THE LATE AFTN AND
EVENING. THE ACCUMS SHOULD BECOME NEGLIGABLE NOT TOO LONG AFTER
SUNSET. THE END TIMING OF THE ADVYS/WARNING WILL BE KEPT AS IS AT
03Z. HOWEVER...MANY PLACES S OF ELK CO WILL SEE JUST A FLURRY OR
TWO IN THE EVENING. TEMPS DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT AS
SOME CLEARING TAKES PLACE IN THE NW...BUT THE CALM AIR IN THE SE
COULD CAUSE THE TEMPS THERE TO BECOME COLDER. SNOW PACK AND CALM
AIR DO WONDERS TO MAKE IT COLDER THAN WE THINK IT WILL BE. WILL
PAINT IN A DIP AROUND THE TYPICAL FRIDGES OF SEG AND THV - MAKING
THEM 3-5F COLDER THAN THE SURROUNDING LOCALES.
THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY SHOULD BE QUIET SAVE A QUICK INCREASE IN
CLOUDS FROM THE SW AS SOME MEAGER WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN AHEAD OF
THE WELL-ADVERTISED ARCTIC FRONT. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL PROBABLY
BREAK OUT/SLIDE IN DURING THE AFTN. TEMPS WILL TRY TO GET INTO THE
20S ALL OVER BUT THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER IN THE NW WILL LIKELY
KEEP THEM U20.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS LIKELY WITH ARCTIC FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.
POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN US INTO NEXT WEEK. EMERGENCE OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW CREATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION MON-WED BUT WITH A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE. A PATTERN SHIFT TO PACIFIC ZONAL-TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH RISING/ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS IS FCST BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FAVORS A RETURN TO MILDER WEATHER.
LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON SUNDAY...AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE
FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
LIKELY WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ. VALLEY
TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA. WIND
CHILL HEADLINES ARE A GOOD BET AND PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE MADE NOW
TO PROTECT/PREPARE FOR THE UPCOMING COLD SNAP.
A MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD CONCERNING A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL EC
REMAINS MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS IN DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE AND HAS TRENDED EVEN FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH IS 10/12Z
RUN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW BUT THE SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC SNOW WILL RESULT IN PREDOMINANTLY IFR
VSBYS AT KBFD/KJST THIS MORNING. DRYING/DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL
RESULT IN PROGRESSIVELY MORE FAVORABLE CONDS EAST OF THE MTNS...WITH
OCNL MVFR CIGS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE AT KAOO/KUNV AND A HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDS AT KIPT/KMDT/KLNS. SFC RIDGE BUILDING
IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD CAUSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
DWINDLE BY THIS AFTN...WITH PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDS RETURNING TO
KBFD/KJST AND VFR ELSEWHERE.
A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVR THE REGION IS ALREADY PRODUCING
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20KTS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL PA AT 12Z...AND
MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE GUSTS TO ARND 25KTS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD
BY LATE AM...AS DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING WITHIN DEEPENING BOUNDARY
ALLOWS WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO GROUND LEVEL.
ARRIVAL OF SFC RIDGE SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
DIMINISHING WIND TO CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...PM SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS LIKELY...ESP W MTNS.
SAT...WINDY. SHSN/REDUCED VIS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AM.
SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
MON...PM SNOW POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ010-017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
417 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will move across the Inland Northwest today and
tonight spreading a chance of rain across much of the area with
snow levels at the highest mountain elevation except near the
north Cascades. This front will be followed by the passage of a
cold front on Friday which will bring another chance of
precipitation to much of the area as well as slightly lower snow
levels. Unsettled weather will continue through the weekend into
early next week with valley rain, high mountain snow and breezy
winds expected. Temperatures will be quite mild on Monday with
many locations seeing highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...The weather during this period will generally
revolve around a developing warm front. As of 2am, the water vapor
looper was showing a broad swath of moisture oriented from NNE-SSW
right off the coast. Meanwhile the upper level ridge of high
pressure remains poised over the Inland NW. The ridge is expected
to amplify slightly over the area today and tonight, as height
falls continue develop off the coast. Despite the presence of the
ridge we should see the first chance of precipitation this week,
the question is how soon will it develop and what will most of it
fall as. Looking closely at the latest radar mosaics it appears
the front will come through in two swaths. The first was
responsible for the east-west band of light echoes extending along
the WA/OR border and moving slowly northeastward. This one will
likely weaken as it moves farther northward with weakening
isentropic ascent, especially over the eastern third of Washington
and north Idaho. If anything falls out of this band it will likely
be very light. Over central Washington, the chances for measurable
precipitation are a little better due to slightly deeper moisture
combined with weak upslope flow into the Cascades. We suspect most
of the precipitation will fall as rain, however north of Lake
Chelan current wet-bulb temperatures are below freezing and they
may not climb much this morning. So we expect to see primarily
snow. The second surge of precipitation will bring a much better
chance of measurable precipitation. This wave is likely a
reflection of a compact shortwave located over northern California
moving steadily northward. The HRRR suggests this second band will
track into the Wenatchee and Moses Lake area around midday and
then into NE Washington and north Idaho by late afternoon or early
evening. Snow levels climb steadily with this portion of the warm
front. Wet-bulb zero heights reach 6000 feet or higher across the
entire forecast area save a small portion of the north Cascades
mainly impacting the Methow Valley. It`s a tough call as to how
effective the cold air damming will be in this area as the
surrounding air mass is awfully warm. The 850 mb flow maintains a
weak upslope orientation at least through early Friday which is
favorable for keeping snow levels locally down to the valley
floor, however surface temperature per bufkit profiles hover near
or slightly above freezing. We put several inches of snow in the
forecast across the upper Methow Valley however that`s assuming
any snow which falls is able to accumulate rather than melting as
it falls. Confidence is not high due to the precarious temperature
profiles. Elsewhere we are much more confident about primarily a
rain event. Rainfall totals should range from .15-35 inches across
the northern mountains and extending into the northern Idaho
Panhandle, with lighter amounts across southern Washington and the
central Panhandle. Near the Cascades, precipitation amounts could
range from 0.30-0.70 inches.
For Friday, the ridge finally gives way and a sw-ne oriented upper
level jet pokes into the southern portions of the region by
midday. This will turn the steady warm frontal precipitation to
more of a showery regime with most of the precipitation occurring
near the cold front. The cold front will likely end the
precipitation threat in the lee of the Cascades during the morning
hours as the upslope flow turns to a downslope westerly regime.
Meanwhile we expect the shower coverage to increase over the
eastern third of Washington and over the Panhandle during the
afternoon as the front destabilizes the atmosphere and enhances
any orographic ascent. Generally speaking the precipitation
amounts from the cold front will be lighter than whats produced
from the warm front.
Temperatures will remain milder both days
over the eastern third of Washington and the Idaho Panhandle with
highs in the 40s to middle 50s. Cooler temperatures will remain a
fixture over central Washington today due to the cold air damming
with highs in the 30s to lower 40s. The cold front should enhance
mixing on Friday bringing an end to the inversions with highs
climbing into the upper 30s to middle 40s. fx
Friday night through Wednesday...A mild and unsettled weather
pattern is expected this weekend through at least the middle of
next week. Initially a slightly cooler air mass will move in
Friday night and Saturday as an upper trough passes through. Mid
level westerly flow will favor most of these showers for the
Cascade crest and Idaho Panhandle. Snow levels by Saturday
morning lower to 3000-4000 feet with snow showers expected over
the mountain passes. Then an atmospheric river of subtropical
moisture becomes aimed at the area Saturday night into Sunday.
This will bring more rain and snow with snow levels rapidly rising
from 2500-4000 feet initially early Sunday to 6000-7000 feet
Monday as a warm front passes through. The atmospheric river
begins to lift north Sunday night into Monday to near or just
north of the Canadian border by Monday afternoon. Strong mid
level westerly flow throughout this event will favor moderate to
heavy precipitation for the Cascade crest and in the mountains of
the Idaho Panhandle with added orographic lift...with mainly
light amounts over Central and Eastern Washington as a strong rain
shadow develops. Meanwhile Monday into Tuesday a surface low
tracking into southern BC will result in a strengthening south-
southwest winds which combined with the warmer air mass will lead
to increased snow melt for areas that have snow currently. 850mb
winds increasing to 30-45 kts will likely result in breezy to
windy conditions over the region...especially the Upper Columbia
Basin, Spokane area, and Palouse. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Upper level ridge remains fixed over the Inland NW during
this period while a warm front will bring an increasing threat of
rain to most of the TAF sites. Before the front arrives we are
dealing with yet another round of fog. It`s very difficult to tell
how widespread it is since the low clouds are being shielded by high
clouds above. As of 4am, most of the LIFR/IFR fog was around GEG and
FAFB but low dewpoint depressions suggest it could easily develop at
COE SFF and MWH as well. Confidence is low though so we will
generally mention partial fog and the possibility of rapidly
changing visibilities. By 18z or so the fog threat will decrease for
all sites with VFR conditions generally prevailing at all sites. The
threat of rain will then develop by late afternoon or early evening.
Persistent rain is then expected overnight at all sites except PUW
and LWS. Cigs will gradually fall and MVFR conditions will likely
develop. fx
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 45 38 47 34 45 35 / 10 60 70 50 40 60
Coeur d`Alene 46 37 47 36 45 34 / 10 70 70 70 60 70
Pullman 51 40 52 38 47 36 / 20 30 40 60 40 70
Lewiston 55 44 57 41 54 40 / 10 20 30 50 30 60
Colville 40 34 41 33 43 35 / 10 80 80 50 50 60
Sandpoint 41 35 41 34 42 34 / 10 80 80 90 60 70
Kellogg 42 37 43 35 39 33 / 10 70 60 90 80 90
Moses Lake 46 38 49 34 52 38 / 20 50 40 30 10 40
Wenatchee 39 34 44 33 47 35 / 50 80 50 20 10 50
Omak 38 35 37 30 42 33 / 30 90 70 30 20 40
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for East Slopes
Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
342 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON REMAIN IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE INLAND OVER EASTERN
WASHINGTON AND OREGON AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT NEAR 140W. A
WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY...FOLLOWED BY THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ONSHORE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP DOWN TO PASS
ELEVATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH FOR
SHOWERS. ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR MORE RAIN AND FOR SOME SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...THEN LINGER
THROUGH SUNDAY AND PRODUCE MORE RAIN WHILE SNOW LEVELS RISE IN THE
CASCADES. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE MOSTLY NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE THE MAIN COLDER UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH FALLING SNOW LEVELS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE WEAK SYSTEM THAT MOVED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY REMAINED OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON OVERNIGHT...AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SOME AREAS OF RAIN TO
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON AT TIMES TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH INTERIOR AREAS.
ECHOES HAVE BEGUN PICKING UP OFF THE NORTH OREGON COAST ALREADY EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND THIS MAY BE THE MAIN BOUNDARY. PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE NORTH INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY AND THIS EVENING...BUT WILL
PROBABLY LINGER FROM ABOUT PORTLAND NORTH INLAND.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OUT AROUND 135W THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH IN THE INLAND AREAS IN
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY...AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
CASCADES BY 4 PM FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE CASCADE
PASSES FOR MOST OF THIS EVENT.
SNOW LEVELS FALL TO BELOW THE PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
AND AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THAT WILL PRODUCE A DECENT SHOT OF
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AN SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK A LITTLE
BELOW ADVISORY AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT.
THIS IS FORECAST TO BE FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH
THE COAST LATE SATURDAY AND BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS SHOW TWO GOOD WAVES MOVING ALONG THE WARM
FRONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ONE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE OTHER ON
SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS IN THE CASCADES WILL START BELOW THE CASCADE
PASSES SATURDAY NIGHT BUT LIKELY RISE WELL ABOVE THE PASSES ON
SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ADVISORY AMOUNTS WOULD BE SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE THE SNOW LEVEL RISES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH
CASCADES. TOLLESON
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE PAC NW LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE ECMWF. NOT EXPECTING TO SEE A LOT OF CASCADE SNOW WITH
THIS FRONT AS SNOW LEVELS QUICKLY RISE ABOVE 7000 FT EARLY SUNDAY. WE
COULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN MONDAY AS A TRANSIENT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
DUE TO SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY AND SHOULD
BRING MORE RAIN AND CASCADE SNOW TO THE REGION...WITH SNOW LEVELS
LOWERING TO AROUND 3500 FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST...BUT WILL TREND COOLER
AFTER MONDAY. /64
&&
.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS THE BOARD AT THIS HOUR.WITH CLOUD COVER LIKELY
INHIBITING ANY POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. 00Z GFS20
TIME HEIGHTS ARE PROVING TO BE THE BEST CIG GUIDANCE OF THE AVAILABLE
OPTIONS DURING THE DRY WEATHER OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. CIGS MAY
LOWER CLOSER TO 050 EARLY THIS MORNING BUT APPEAR TO GET STUCK THERE.
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THE INCOMING FRONT AND LAMP GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TREND AWAY FROM IFR VSBY IMPACTS AT THE COASTAL TAF
SITES OF KAST AND KONP AND ARE KEEPING CONDS AS MVFR CIG/VSBY
IMPACTS. INLAND TAF TERMINALS DO NOT REACH MVFR FOR VERY LONG, IF AT
ALL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR OF 025-030 UNDER
RAIN BANDS TODAY ARE POSSIBLE BUT ONLY GIVE ABOUT A 10-20 PCT CHANCE.
BROAD OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING EASTERLY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THE GORGE
TODAY. /JBONK
&&
.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANTLY LARGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. ENP IS
GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH THE INCOMING SWELL AS 10 FT COMBINED SEAS
REACHED BUOY 89 AS OF THE 0200 HOUR. STILL COULD EXTEND THE SCA FOR
SEAS OUT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON PER ENP GUIDANCE BUT PREFER TO KEEP
IT COVERED FOR THE PERIODS OF HIGHER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
CONFUSED SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE EVENING
BEFORE A SINGULAR WESTERLY SWELL WILL DOMINATE.
DID LOWER WINDS FOR THIS FIRST WARM FRONTAL PERIOD AS THE SURFACE LOW
WILL PIVOT NORTH AND WELL OFFSHORE WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
AND TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT MAINLY STAYING OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. IT WILL STILL COVER A DECENT PORTION OF THE OUTER WATERS. ITS
SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE INNER WATERS WILL GET MANY GUSTS
ABOVE 21 KT TODAY BUT DONT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PULL DOWN THE
ADVISORY.
NEXT EVENT ON THE HORIZON APPEARS TO BE A POTENTIAL GALE EVENT
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THOUGH STILL
DIFFER IN THE DETAILS. DECIDED TO TAKE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF WINDS FIELDS. THIS APPROACH YIELDED PEAK GUSTS 35-37 KTS
SATURDAY NIGHT. PREFER TO SEE CONTINUED CONSISTENCY GIVEN THE
WISHY-WASHY AND DECAYING STRENGTH NATURE OF THE MODELS OVER THE LAST
COUPLE EVENTS. AFTER THAT...SEE A COUPLE SHORTER SCA TYPE EVENTS FOR
NEXT WEEK. /JBONK
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST
SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD
TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
9 AM PST THIS MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM
THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PST THIS EVENING.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
307 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will move across the Inland Northwest today and
tonight spreading a chance of rain across much of the area with
snow levels at the highest mountain elevation except near the
north Cascades. This front will be followed by the passage of a
cold front on Friday which will bring another chance of
precipitation to much of the area as well as slightly lower snow
levels. Unsettled weather will continue through the weekend into
early next week with valley rain, high mountain snow and breezy
winds expected. Temperatures will be quite mild on Monday with
many locations seeing highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...The weather during this period will generally
revolve around a developing warm front. As of 2am, the water vapor
looper was showing a broad swath of moisture oriented from NNE-SSW
right off the coast. Meanwhile the upper level ridge of high
pressure remains poised over the Inland NW. The ridge is expected
to amplify slightly over the area today and tonight, as height
falls continue develop off the coast. Despite the presence of the
ridge we should see the first chance of precipitation this week,
the question is how soon will it develop and what will most of it
fall as. Looking closely at the latest radar mosaics it appears
the front will come through in two swaths. The first was
responsible for the east-west band of light echoes extending along
the WA/OR border and moving slowly northeastward. This one will
likely weaken as it moves farther northward with weakening
isentropic ascent, especially over the eastern third of Washington
and north Idaho. If anything falls out of this band it will likely
be very light. Over central Washington, the chances for measurable
precipitation are a little better due to slightly deeper moisture
combined with weak upslope flow into the Cascades. We suspect most
of the precipitation will fall as rain, however north of Lake
Chelan current wet-bulb temperatures are below freezing and they
may not climb much this morning. So we expect to see primarily
snow. The second surge of precipitation will bring a much better
chance of measurable precipitation. This wave is likely a
reflection of a compact shortwave located over northern California
moving steadily northward. The HRRR suggests this second band will
track into the Wenatchee and Moses Lake area around midday and
then into NE Washington and north Idaho by late afternoon or early
evening. Snow levels climb steadily with this portion of the warm
front. Wet-bulb zero heights reach 6000 feet or higher across the
entire forecast area save a small portion of the north Cascades
mainly impacting the Methow Valley. It`s a tough call as to how
effective the cold air damming will be in this area as the
surrounding air mass is awfully warm. The 850 mb flow maintains a
weak upslope orientation at least through early Friday which is
favorable for keeping snow levels locally down to the valley
floor, however surface temperature per bufkit profiles hover near
or slightly above freezing. We put several inches of snow in the
forecast across the upper Methow Valley however that`s assuming
any snow which falls is able to accumulate rather than melting as
it falls. Confidence is not high due to the precarious temperature
profiles. Elsewhere we are much more confident about primarily a
rain event. Rainfall totals should range from .15-35 inches across
the northern mountains and extending into the northern Idaho
Panhandle, with lighter amounts across southern Washington and the
central Panhandle. Near the Cascades, precipitation amounts could
range from 0.30-0.70 inches.
For Friday, the ridge finally gives way and a sw-ne oriented upper
level jet pokes into the southern portions of the region by
midday. This will turn the steady warm frontal precipitation to
more of a showery regime with most of the precipitation occurring
near the cold front. The cold front will likely end the
precipitation threat in the lee of the Cascades during the morning
hours as the upslope flow turns to a downslope westerly regime.
Meanwhile we expect the shower coverage to increase over the
eastern third of Washington and over the Panhandle during the
afternoon as the front destabilizes the atmosphere and enhances
any orographic ascent. Generally speaking the precipitation
amounts from the cold front will be lighter than whats produced
from the warm front.
Temperatures will remain milder both days
over the eastern third of Washington and the Idaho Panhandle with
highs in the 40s to middle 50s. Cooler temperatures will remain a
fixture over central Washington today due to the cold air damming
with highs in the 30s to lower 40s. The cold front should enhance
mixing on Friday bringing an end to the inversions with highs
climbing into the upper 30s to middle 40s. fx
Friday night through Wednesday...A mild and unsettled weather
pattern is expected this weekend through at least the middle of
next week. Initially a slightly cooler air mass will move in
Friday night and Saturday as an upper trough passes through. Mid
level westerly flow will favor most of these showers for the
Cascade crest and Idaho Panhandle. Snow levels by Saturday
morning lower to 3000-4000 feet with snow showers expected over
the mountain passes. Then an atmospheric river of subtropical
moisture becomes aimed at the area Saturday night into Sunday.
This will bring more rain and snow with snow levels rapidly rising
from 2500-4000 feet initially early Sunday to 6000-7000 feet
Monday as a warm front passes through. The atmospheric river
begins to lift north Sunday night into Monday to near or just
north of the Canadian border by Monday afternoon. Strong mid
level westerly flow throughout this event will favor moderate to
heavy precipitation for the Cascade crest and in the mountains of
the Idaho Panhandle with added orographic lift...with mainly
light amounts over Central and Eastern Washington as a strong rain
shadow develops. Meanwhile Monday into Tuesday a surface low
tracking into southern BC will result in a strengthening south-
southwest winds which combined with the warmer air mass will lead
to increased snow melt for areas that have snow currently. 850mb
winds increasing to 30-45 kts will likely result in breezy to
windy conditions over the region...especially the Upper Columbia
Basin, Spokane area, and Palouse. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Weak wave exiting the forecast area this evening but a
few lingering spotty showers remain. The ridge still remains in
place with abundant low level moisture and overnight and early
morning temperatures not too far from their dewpints...therfore
another repeat of MVFR/IFR low stratus ceilings and IFR/LIFR fog
remains in store overnight tonight and early Thursday Morning.
Another weak disturbance will bring more light precipitation to
the aviation area tomorrow. /Pelatti
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 45 38 47 34 45 35 / 10 60 70 50 40 60
Coeur d`Alene 46 37 47 36 45 34 / 10 70 70 70 60 70
Pullman 51 40 52 38 47 36 / 20 30 40 60 40 70
Lewiston 55 44 57 41 54 40 / 10 20 30 50 30 60
Colville 40 34 41 33 43 35 / 10 80 80 50 50 60
Sandpoint 41 35 41 34 42 34 / 10 80 80 90 60 70
Kellogg 42 37 43 35 39 33 / 10 70 60 90 80 90
Moses Lake 46 38 49 34 52 38 / 20 50 40 30 10 40
Wenatchee 39 34 44 33 47 35 / 50 80 50 20 10 50
Omak 38 35 37 30 42 33 / 30 90 70 30 20 40
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for East Slopes
Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
324 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016
A fast moving clipper will produce light snow starting this evening
across western Illinois, with most of the focused lift overnight
primarily remaining across our southwestern counties. The general
trend in the 12z models has been to focus the better chances of
measurable snowfall over our southwestern and southern counties.
Have increased PoPs to likely in a narrow corridor southwest of a
line from Jacksonville to Effingham, progressing from SW to SE with
time overnight. The HRRR is the farthest southwest with the latest
updated path of forcing for precip, with the NAM80, Canadian GEM,
and ECMWF still extending at least some snow accumulation across all
of our CWA except the far NE counties NE of CMI. The NAM12 is
similar to the HRRR in limiting snow to the SW half of our CWA. Have
reduced the PoPs in our N and NE counties, north of I-74, to slight
chance. Chance PoPs were limited to generally south of a line from
Galesburg to Lincoln to Paris. Snow amounts from Jacksonville to
Effingham could reach between a half inch and one inch, with a
dusting to a half inch as far north as Rushville to Lincoln to
Decatur. South to southwest winds should remain less than 10 mph
during the snowfall, so drifting should not be a big problem
overnight.
Low temps tonight will generally settle out in the mid-teens, as
cloud cover limits the diurnal swing to only around a 10 degree drop-
off.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016
Friday may start out with a few lingering snow showers south of
I-70, but little additional accumulation is expected after
sunrise. The bigger story will be the arrival of very cold air on
increasing northwest winds Friday afternoon, as strong pressure
rises develop ahead of the surface high center. The tight pressure
gradient will produce wind gusts over 30 mph at times, which could
cause minor drifting of the snowfall from tonight, so slippery
travel could develop from that Friday afternoon and evening.
Wind chills late Friday night will drop very close to advisory
levels of -15F north of Peoria, with wind chills below zero in all
of our forecast area. Actual air temps will be range from zero to 8
above zero, but NW winds will remain strong enough to push wind
chills well below zero.
The next main concern will be the system for Sunday into Monday.
Model differences remain with the 12z model updates. The Canadian
GEM has started showing the splitting of energy as the trough
reaches Illinois, similar to what the ECMWF was showing yesterday.
The ECMWF has changed and now maintains the trough energy across
Illinois Sunday evening, with total QPF amounts that support snow
amounts of 1 to 2". The Canadian GEM QPF amounts support around 1
inch west of I-55, with little to no snow accum east of I-55. The
GFS remains the only model that develops a distinct surface
low/circulation that tracks across northern IL Sunday evening, with
total QPF amounts that support snowfall of 4" to 7" in our northern
counties, and 3-4" in the south. The 12z NAM now includes forecast
info through 6 pm Sunday, and is showing plenty of snow as well,
despite no surface low moving across IL. The NAM has 3-5" across our
counties for just the first 12 hours of the event through 6 pm
Sunday. We have increased PoPs into the likely category for Sunday
nearly everywhere, and likely PoPs east of I-57 Sunday night.
Our compromise forecast for QPF came out to 0.23-0.30", correlating
to snowfall amounts of 2-4", with the higher totals from Peoria and
north. There still remains quite a bit of uncertainty with how much
moisture will fall, so updates to QPF and resultant snow accums are
likely with subsequent model runs.
The accumulating snows should primarily be done by Monday morning,
but lingering light snow or flurries could continue into afternoon.
If precip does linger into the afternoon, the snow may mix
with or change to rain.
All of the extended models show a low deepening south of Illinois on
Monday, and progressing up into the Appalachian mountains Monday
night, with precip mainly southeast of our area. However, the
blended initialization kept slight chance PoPs in the eastern half
of Illinois Monday night through Tuesday night, mainly due to that
strong system.
A warming trend is indicated for next week, as upper level ridging
gradually pushes east into Illinois. We should see mid-level warming
increase enough to support high temps climbing into the upper 30s to
low 40s Tuesday and Wed, with sunshine and mid 40s to around 50 for
Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016
1030 MB Canadian high pressure over the upper MS river valley and
ridging into eastern IA and nw IL will slide se into eastern IL
and central/southern IN by 00Z/6 pm and into WV by 06Z/midnight
tonight. Nearby high pressure will continue light winds through
this evening across the central TAF sites. A northern stream short
wave/Alberta clipper over western SD will track se across MO
during this evening and into the TN valley by 12Z/6 am Friday.
Models have trended further sw track with this clipper so best
chances of light snow tonight have shifted sw into sw IL from SPI
sw. Have light snow/flurries with vsbys 4-6 miles and MVFR
ceilings spreading se along I-74 corridor 02-06Z. Steadier light
snow and vsbys down to 2-3 miles at DEC and especially SPI from
03Z-05Z along with MVFR ceilings. Light snow chances should end
late tonight from nw-se from 10-13Z as MVFR clouds linger. Light
winds this evening to become WNW by dawn Friday and increase to
10-15 kts with gusts 15-20 kts after 15Z/9 am Fri.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
327 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS
LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE AREA. A
FAST MOVING CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CHANCES FOR SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST CLIPPER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. DRY AIR IN
PLACE WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD WILL LIMIT OVERALL SNOWFALL TOTALS TO
AROUND AN INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS JUST OVER AN INCH.
HIRES GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL START NEAR 00Z
AND BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 08Z.
GUIDANCE TODAY HELD STRONG WITH THE CONSENSUS ON TIMING AND
STRONGEST FORCING WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. WWD
HAS AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW FOR THIS AREA AND OUR FORECAST
REPRESENTS THIS. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE BEST
SNOW WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 06Z WITH LINGERING FLURRIES
THROUGH 09Z ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
SO LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS SNOW. ANY SNOW THAT
ACCUMULATES SHOULD BE DONE BY THE EARLY HOURS.
FRIDAY WILL BE QUIET AND SLIGHTLY WARMER..WITH CLEARING SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016
FRIDAY NIGHT...LATEST SUITE OF 12Z RUN MODELS SUGGEST 1045 MB ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE STILL ON TRACK TO SURGE DOWN THE UPPER TO MID MS RVR
VALLEY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH A SCOURING EFFECT. THIS FEATURE TO
COLD DUMP LLVL TEMPS/THICKNESS VALUES TO PRODUCE SUB-ZERO LOWS ACRS
MOST OF THE CWA...BUT SOME CONCERN THAT ONGOING MIXING SFC WINDS IN
INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO LIMIT A COMPLETE BOTTOM OUT.
BUT DUE TO BRUTE FORCE COLD AIR ADVECTION...WILL STILL GO WITH LOWS
FROM 5 TO NEAR 10 BELOW ZERO ACRS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA...0 TO 5 BELOW ALONG AND NORTH OF I80...AND TO THE LOW SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. SFC WINDS DECREASING TO 7-10
MPH TOWARD SUNRISE SAT STILL TO PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILLS
ACRS AT LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE DVN CWA...AND POSSIBLY
ALONG THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR IN NW IL.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH OVERHEAD WILL MAKE FOR
TEMPORARY CLEAR AND CALM/LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS FOR FIRST PART OF THE
DAY SAT...WITH HIGH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES. THIS AHEAD OF THE ORGANIZING SHORT WAVE UPPER TROF THAT
WILL LOOK TO PROPAGATE TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN GRT LKS AND MID MS
RVR VALLEY ON SUNDAY IN BROADENING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW.
THE VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST SOME TYPE OF ASSOCIATED
WARM AIR ADVECTION WING OF SNOW WILL LOOK TO TRY TO GET INTO THE
WESTERN OR SOUTHWESTERN CWA BY EARLY SAT EVENING...BUT FEEL MODELS
MAY BE TOO QUICK WITH THIS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT STRENGTH OF DRY SFC
RIDGE AXIS STILL ON THE MOVE OVER AND EAST OF THE CWA AT THAT TIME.
BUT BY MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT...BOTH THE 12Z RUN ECMWF AND GEM SUGGEST
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS STARTING TO TAKE PLACE ALREADY IN THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN CWA. AGAIN SIDING WITH THE 12Z GEM/ECMWF WHICH ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT...THE WAA WING OF SNOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF
WILL LOOK TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACRS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
2/3S OF THE CWA THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...BUT MAY GET ERODED SOME AS IT
DOES BY ONGOING DRY AIR IN PLACE AND ALSO SOME IMPACT OF MUCH OF THE
INITIAL LIFT GOING INTO THE TOP-DOWN SATURATION PROCESS. THE LATEST
GEM MAY HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS IDEA WITH JUST A DUSTING TO
HALF INCH WEST OF THE MS RVR BY 12Z SUNDAY...BUT WILL GO WITH A FEW
TENTHS TO NEAR AN INCH SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM DBQ...TO THE QUAD
CITIES...AND TO MACOMB IN WESTERN IL.
THEN THE MAIN SNOW EVENT WITH THE UPPER TROF WILL LOOK TO OCCUR ON
SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADJUST POPS UP INTO LIKELY OR EVEN
CATEGORICAL. BUT THE 12Z RUN AMERICAN MODELS/ESPECIALLY THE 12Z GFS/
WHICH HINT AT HIGH END ADVISORY OR EVEN LOW END WARNING CRITERIA
AMOUNT SNOWS BY SUNDAY EVENING COMBINING THE TWO SNOW MAKING
PROCESSES...SEEM TOO WET...TOO STRONG LOOKING AT MID AND UPPER LEVEL
JET DYNAMICS MORE FAVORABLE TO THE SOUTH...AND THEIR DEEP SATURATION
IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. SO CURRENTLY FAVOR A BLEND OF THE 12Z GEM/ECMWF MOISTURE
AND FORCING PROFILES WHICH SUGGEST MOST OF THE CWA TO GET 1-3 OR 2-4
INCHES OF SNOW BY SUNDAY EVENING. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS OF 15-20
MPH MAY PRODUCE SOME DRIFTING TROUBLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL...SO THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR AN EVENTUAL ADVISORY EVEN WITH THE
LIGHTER AMOUNTS PRODUCED BY THESE FAVORED SOLUTIONS. STILL 1-3 MORE
MODEL RUNS NEEDED TO FURTHER DEFINE THIS SNOW EVENT FOR MORE
CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THU...AS THE PASSING TROF CONTINUES TO EVOLVE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK..RESULTANT MAJOR STORM
SHOULD TAKE OFF WELL TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF LOCAL AREA OF CONCERN.
BUT THERE MAY BE SOME NUISANCE LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES ACRS THE AREA IN
THE WAKE OF THE MAIN SYSTEM...OR EVEN A SECONDARY WEAK CLIPPER LATE
MONDAY INTO TUE. LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS THEN SUGGEST THE CLIPPER
INDUCING NORTHWESTERLIES WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO MILDER UPPER
RIDGING BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN TO DELAY
IT/S ARRIVAL ESPECIALLY IF RE-ENFORCING TROFFINESS ESTABLISHES ACRS
THE WESTERN GRT LKS TUE INTO WED LIKE SOME OF THE LATEST ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST. ..12..
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016
VFR CONDITIONS GIVING WAY TO MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY IFR VSBYS
DURING SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING IS
EXPECTED AT MOST TAF SITES. BRL HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW.
OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD TURN TO THE SW AND THEN THE WNW LATE IN THE
PERIOD INTO TOMORROW WHERE SOME STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY TO 25KT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
BY 09Z AT MOST TAF SITES.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1119 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016
...Updated for Aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016
High pressure sinking south through the plains states will affect
temperatures to the negative side over the next couple of days.
Stratus was advancing across the Missouri valley into central
Nebraska and northern Kansas. The latest HRRR model runs have
continued to advect stratus of around 1000ft bases through the Hays
area and perhaps as far south as Dodge City after 12 UTC. So
stratus dissipation and local visibilities due to fog may be the
main forecast problems of the morning influencing temperature
trends. Afternoon highs will be not as warm today, however drier dew
points and downslope trajectories should still help temperatures
warm toward 70 in the far west.
.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016
Very low precipitation probabilities were included associated with
mainly a freezing drizzle and fog possibility on Friday night into
very early Saturday morning, however, this only glances the
northwest most sections of west central Kansas as the model signal
is focused over the northwest part of the state. A general cooling
trend each day ends by Sunday as the easterly surface wind gets
whipped around from the west once again as a shortwave dives through
the Northern Plains. A short period of weakly cyclonic flow aloft
will continue into the Monday timeframe and pops may need to be
revisited in the coming forecast cycles, but at this point the
confidence is extremely low for precipitation chances.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Friday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016
Some low stratus at KHYS is forecast to dissipate early this
afternoon, then reform early Friday am after 12Z as wind shifts
back to the light north-northeast. Elsewhere expect VFR with light
south to southwest winds shifting northwesterly at 5-12kt after
00-03Z as a weak surface trough moves across western Kansas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 57 31 51 22 / 0 0 0 10
GCK 61 29 53 24 / 0 0 0 10
EHA 67 33 59 29 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 63 31 58 26 / 0 0 0 10
HYS 49 30 42 20 / 0 0 0 20
P28 54 32 52 22 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Kruse
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
559 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SNOW CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH 6PM UPDATE...TWEAKED HOURLY POPS AND TEMPERATURES...KEEPING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST SLIGHTLY LONGER FOR THE
TIER OF COUNTIES JUST NORTH OF PITTSBURGH WHERE ECHOES HAVE HELD
ON THE LONGEST. ALTHOUGH THE VERY COLD AIR IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT...LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES COULD PLUMMET ALONG INTERSTATE 80 IF SKIES MANAGE TO
CLEAR OUT. THINK THE CLOUDS WILL HANG IN LONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT
THIS FROM HAPPENING...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
SCATTERED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THRU THE
EVE AS MDL PROGGED AND OBSERVED UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW LWRG TEMP
INVERSIONS...AND WKNG LAPSE RATES. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BRING CLRG SKIES TONIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD AVG AROUND 15 DEG BELOW
SEASONAL LVLS USING THE LATEST NR TERM CONSENSUS BLENDED
GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LWR OH VLY/MID ATLANTIC
RGN FRI BRINGING INCRG LGT SNOW CHCS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...IS EXPD TO CROSS THE RGN FRI EVE WITH
BETTER CHCS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
UNDER UPR TROFG AND LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT LATER FRI NGT AND
SAT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPD TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS DRY ARCTIC AIR RESULTS IN UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENT
IN THE SNOW GROWTH RGN. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SAT NGT/SUN SHOULD
BRING DRY WEATHER.
WIND WITH SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
THRU SOMETIME SAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LVL WIND CHILLS
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA. DIMINISHING WINDS MAY PROVIDE FOR LESSER
CHCS OF WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...THOUGH TEMPS NR
OR BELOW ZERO ARE EXPD. TEMPS WERE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY FROM
SUPERBLENDED GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES MOVE TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES
TO START THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR SOUTHERN
STREAM STORM SYSTEM INTENSIFYING AND MOVING NORTHEAST LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WPC PROGS AND
THE SUPERBLEND...WITH HIGHEST POPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WITH
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL NORM. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO GIVE A DRY DAY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL GIVE MVFR AT TIMES FOR NRN PORTS INTO
LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE TURNS THE FLOW AND BEGINS TO
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING FOR VFR CONDITIONS. WEST WINDS 10-15KTS
WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.
.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
316 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 1230 PM CST Thu Feb 11 2016
A northwest flow shortwave now dropping southeastward into western
SD will move quickly through our area tonight. Light snow will
spread southeastward into northeast MO early this evening, then
through the St Louis metro area around midnight. Still looking like
a quick shot of dry, powdery snow with most places picking up to 1
inch of accumulation, but there may be a narrow band of 1-2 inches
extending from near IRK southeast through the St Louis metro area.
Latest NAM and HRRR model runs have the band a little further west
than previous model runs. Most of the accumulating snow should
shift southeast of our forecast area by 12Z Friday. Low
temperatures will be similar to the previous night, and around 5
degrees below normal.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 316 PM CST Thu Feb 11 2016
A strong cold front will move southeastward through our forecast
area on Friday with strengthening winds as the surface pressure
gradient tightens as a strong 1040-1045 mb surface high builds
southeastward into the area from the northern Plains behind the cold
front. Temperatures may begin to fall in northeast MO behind the
front already by Friday afternoon. Much colder temperatures are
expected for Friday night and Saturday with wind chills down to
around 10 below zero late Friday night and early Saturday morning
across northeast MO and west central IL. Snow should spread
southeastward into at least northeast MO and west central IL late
Saturday night as low-mid level warm air advection increases ahead
of an approaching northern stream shortwave. It still appears that
the ECMWF model is a little too quick bringing precipitation into
our forecast area already be Saturday afternoon and evening with an
initially very dry boundary layer on the backside of the surface
ridge. The better chance of precipitation should occur on Sunday as
a southwesterly low level jet brings increasing low level moisture
into our area ahead of the shortwave. It is too early to pin down
exact snow totals, but it initially appears that 2-4 inches is
possible across northeast MO and west central IL with lesser amounts
of 1-2 inches further south for Saturday night and Sunday. Another
round of precipitation is expected, mainly on Monday, as a southern
stream shortwave and associated surface low pass south of our area.
This precipitation should be confined mainly to southeast MO and
southwest IL. With temperatures trending up as we head into the
next work week there may also be precipitation type issues with a
mix of snow, sleet and rain possible. Will keep the rest of the
forecast dry with a warming trend, although the ECMWF model does
depict some weaker weather systems bringing a brief period or two of
light QPF to our area. The GFS model is dry for the remainder of
the period after Monday with a dry cold frontal passage on Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Both the GFS and ECMWF models depict a warm
weather pattern by Thursday with upper level ridging over the region
along with strong s-swly low level winds likely leading to well
above normal temperatures.
GKS
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CST Thu Feb 11 2016
SC has dissipated over taf sites, so will see VFR conditions
through early this evening as mid and high clouds stream in ahead
of next clipper system. Timing still similar to last set of tafs
with snow moving into KUIN/KCOU by 02z Friday and STL metro area
by 04z Friday. With onset of light snow, will see cigs dip down to
MVFR with brief IFR visbys as heavier bands of snow move through.
Snow to taper off between 09z and 10z Friday for taf sites, though
mvfr cigs to persist. KCOU on western periphery so should see
mvfr cigs scatter out by 16z Friday. As for winds, to remain from
the northeast to east as system moves through, then become light
and variable. By mid morning on Friday, winds to pickup from the
northwest.
Specifics for KSTL:
SC has dissipated over metro area, so will see VFR conditions
through early this evening as mid and high clouds stream in ahead
of next clipper system. Timing still similar to last set of tafs
with snow moving into STL metro area by 04z Friday. With onset of
light snow, will see cigs dip down to MVFR with brief IFR visbys
as heavier bands of snow move through. Snow to taper off by 10z
Friday, though mvfr cigs to persist for rest of taf forecast
period. As for winds, to remain from the northeast to east as
system moves through, then become light and variable by 10z Friday.
By 17z Friday, winds to pickup from the northwest around 10 kts.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1248 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 1230 PM CST Thu Feb 11 2016
A northwest flow shortwave now dropping southeastward into western
SD will move quickly through our area tonight. Light snow will
spread southeastward into northeast MO early this evening, then
through the St Louis metro area around midnight. Still looking like
a quick shot of dry, powdery snow with most places picking up to 1
inch of accumulation, but there may be a narrow band of 1-2 inches
extending from near IRK southeast through the St Louis metro area.
Latest NAM and HRRR model runs have the band a little further west
than previous model runs. Most of the accumulating snow should
shift southeast of our forecast area by 12Z Friday. Low
temperatures will be similar to the previous night, and around 5
degrees below normal.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 AM CST Thu Feb 11 2016
...Light Snow Expected This Evening...
Next shortwave will be diving southeast in a similar manner to
yesterday`s and provide the area with another round of light snow.
It appears that this snow will be a little later in its arrival with
the main window of accumulation occurring from 6 pm to Midnight.
Once again have about an inch, give or take a few tenths, of snow
accumulation forecast from northeast Missouri to southwest Illinois.
This includes the Greater St. Louis Metropolitan Area.
Snow should taper off after midnight from northwest to southeast,
with a few flurries possible Friday morning. Thereafter, a very
cold air mass builds into the region Friday night and Saturday.
Low temperatures below zero are certainly possible Saturday
morning across the northern CWA.
The arctic high pressure quickly moves east though and by
Saturday night we could already have a band of warm advection snow
racing across the CWA. Better chance of accumulating snow appears
to occur on Sunday, but to be honest, medium range model guidance
has been flip flopping all over the place with this system the
past five days and still hasn`t landed on a common solution. Best
to leave PoPs at a chance for the period in question and give it a
few more runs before trying to nail down specifics.
Warm up looks on tap next week as the pattern changes with highs in
the 50s and maybe even 60s!
CVKING
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CST Thu Feb 11 2016
SC has dissipated over taf sites, so will see VFR conditions
through early this evening as mid and high clouds stream in ahead
of next clipper system. Timing still similar to last set of tafs
with snow moving into KUIN/KCOU by 02z Friday and STL metro area
by 04z Friday. With onset of light snow, will see cigs dip down to
MVFR with brief IFR visbys as heavier bands of snow move through.
Snow to taper off between 09z and 10z Friday for taf sites, though
mvfr cigs to persist. KCOU on western periphery so should see
mvfr cigs scatter out by 16z Friday. As for winds, to remain from
the northeast to east as system moves through, then become light
and variable. By mid morning on Friday, winds to pickup from the
northwest.
Specifics for KSTL:
SC has dissipated over metro area, so will see VFR conditions
through early this evening as mid and high clouds stream in ahead
of next clipper system. Timing still similar to last set of tafs
with snow moving into STL metro area by 04z Friday. With onset of
light snow, will see cigs dip down to MVFR with brief IFR visbys
as heavier bands of snow move through. Snow to taper off by 10z
Friday, though mvfr cigs to persist for rest of taf forecast
period. As for winds, to remain from the northeast to east as
system moves through, then become light and variable by 10z Friday.
By 17z Friday, winds to pickup from the northwest around 10 kts.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1231 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 1230 PM CST Thu Feb 11 2016
A northwest flow shortwave now dropping southeastward into western
SD will move quickly through our area tonight. Light snow will
spread southeastward into northeast MO early this evening, then
through the St Louis metro area around midnight. Still looking like
a quick shot of dry, powdery snow with most places picking up to 1
inch of accumulation, but there may be a narrow band of 1-2 inches
extending from near IRK southeast through the St Louis metro area.
Latest NAM and HRRR model runs have the band a little further west
than previous model runs. Most of the accumulating snow should
shift southeast of our forecast area by 12Z Friday. Low
temperatures will be similar to the previous night, and around 5
degrees below normal.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 AM CST Thu Feb 11 2016
...Light Snow Expected This Evening...
Next shortwave will be diving southeast in a similar manner to
yesterday`s and provide the area with another round of light snow.
It appears that this snow will be a little later in its arrival with
the main window of accumulation occurring from 6 pm to Midnight.
Once again have about an inch, give or take a few tenths, of snow
accumulation forecast from northeast Missouri to southwest Illinois.
This includes the Greater St. Louis Metropolitan Area.
Snow should taper off after midnight from northwest to southeast,
with a few flurries possible Friday morning. Thereafter, a very
cold air mass builds into the region Friday night and Saturday.
Low temperatures below zero are certainly possible Saturday
morning across the northern CWA.
The arctic high pressure quickly moves east though and by
Saturday night we could already have a band of warm advection snow
racing across the CWA. Better chance of accumulating snow appears
to occur on Sunday, but to be honest, medium range model guidance
has been flip flopping all over the place with this system the
past five days and still hasn`t landed on a common solution. Best
to leave PoPs at a chance for the period in question and give it a
few more runs before trying to nail down specifics.
Warm up looks on tap next week as the pattern changes with highs in
the 50s and maybe even 60s!
CVKING
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 544 AM CST Thu Feb 11 2016
VFR flight conditions expected today with band of cigs from 4-5kt
feet stretching from northern MO into southern Il slowly sinking
south this morning. In the wake of these clouds, mid-high clouds
will move into the area this afternoon in advance of the next
fast-moving system. Another band of light snow will spread into
the region early this evening and exit the area after 09z. KUIN
and the St. Louis region terminals will likely have a period of
MVFR- IFR flight conditions. Impacts at KCOU are a bit more
uncertain and MVFR conditions appear to be possible. Snow amounts
will be similar to yesterdays event, averaging near 1 inch.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR flight conditions are expected today with band of cigs from
4-5kt during the morning. In the wake of these clouds, mid-high
clouds will move into the area this afternoon in advance of the
next fast-moving system. Light snow will spread into the terminal
mid-late evening and exit the area after 09z, bringing a period
of MVFR-IFR flight conditions. Snow amounts will be similar to
yesterdays event, averaging near 1 inch.
Glass
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1147 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW STRATUS THAT HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SO FAR IT HAS MADE IT
ACROSS MOST OF THE NEBRASKA PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE KANSAS PORTION.
THE FIRST CONCERN WITH THIS IS THERE WAS QUITE A BIT OF SNOW MELTING
YESTERDAY SO THERE IS GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS HAVE BEEN FROM
THE NORTH AND FAIRLY LIGHT. WITH THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS ACROSS THE
AREA THERE COULD BE A LITTLE FOG. THE HRRR AND THE SREF BOTH HAVE
THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES IN THE WEST. SO FAR THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
INDICATION OF ANY FOG. WILL KEEP SOME MENTION OF PATCHY FOG WITH A
FEW AREAS OF FOG IN THE FAR WEST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE IF THE
VISIBILITY DROPS AS WE GET CLOSER TO SUNRISE. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
SEEMS TO BE THE MODELS THAT BRING THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES ALSO HAVE
EASTERLY WINDS AND THE CURRENT WINDS ARE MORE NORTH.
THERE COULD BE A LITTLE OF THE PATCHY FOG THAT LINGERS INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. THE CLOUDS SHOULD HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...BUT TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY THE CLOUDS SHOULD START TO
RECEDE TO THE EAST AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SHOULD HELP TO MOVE THE CLOUDS OUT
OF THE AREA...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE VERY COLD BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PLAINS SITS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EAST CAUSING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND
INTO SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH...THE LOWEST LEVELS
REMAIN THE MOST SATURATED...BUT EARLY ON THERE IS ENOUGH DEPTH AND
IT IS COLD ENOUGH TO BEGIN AS SNOW BEFORE FREEZING DRIZZLE LOOKS TO
BE THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. DRYER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT TO PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE FORECAST.
A MORE POTENT DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO BE OVER NORTH AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA...BUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY OCCUR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THE COLUMN OF AIR WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO BE THE
MAIN PRECIP TYPE WITH THIS.
SUNDAY AFTER THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY. DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL AID TEMPERATURES TO RISE BACK INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
AREA.
ANOTHER BRIEF DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS
COULD BRING ANOTHER BRIEF CHANCE FOR PRECIP...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON THIS FEATURE.
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL HAVE A WARMING TREND AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
EACH DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO
THE 50S BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO LIFT TO
MVFR LEVELS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ONLY TO DROP BACK DOWN TO IFR
LEVELS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE MODELS ONCE AGAIN ARE
INDICATING WE COULD SEE SOME LOWERED VSBYS...OPTED TO ONLY INCLUDE
MVFR VSBYS FOR THE TIME BEING AS CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK ANY MORE
FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT THAN THEY DID THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT AND BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION...GENERALLY REMAINING 12KTS OF LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...BILLINGS WRIGHT
AVIATION...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
302 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT IN PARTS
OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR MASS SINCE LAST
WINTER. WIND CHILLS WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW...WELL BELOW
ZERO...SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A MODERATING TREND IS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1130 AM... MAIN LAKE EFFECT BANDS CONTINUE E-SE OF LAKE
ONTARIO ON ABOUT A 290 FLOW LATE THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS
SECONDARY WEAKER BANDS FARTHER SOUTH EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN PA.
BANDS STILL APPEAR TO BE SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH AND ARE NEAR THE
THRUWAY LATE THIS MORNING WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY
BANDS TO GET INTO THE CITIES OF SYRACUSE AND UTICA AT SOME POINT
THIS AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECTING SEVERAL INCHES THIS AFTERNOON
FROM NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY EAST TO WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY
WITH LESS TO THE SOUTH. ATMOSPHERE UPSTREAM FROM THESE BANDS IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY DRY AND NO GOOD CONNECTION WITH LAKE HURON /
GEORGIAN BAY CAN BE SEEN ON LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY. ALSO DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL IS NOT OPTIMAL AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME
COLD ENOUGH SO THAT ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER ABOVE -20 C EXISTS BELOW
900 MB.
WILL KEEP CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES GOING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL... ALTHOUGH WARNING TYPE ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST
NORTH OF THE CITY OF SYRACUSE THROUGH TODAY... WITH JUST ANOTHER
COUPLE OF INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREAS TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS WITH
TEENS IN MOST AREAS TO NEAR 20 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN
PA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.
315 AM UPDATE...
WANTED TO SEND OUT AN "EARLY" UPDATE TO REFLECT ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION REGARDING OUR LAKE EFFECT EVENT. WILL SEND OUT A
SEPARATE AFD FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TO GO OVER THE DANGEROUS
COLD OVER THE WEEKEND. FIRST THINGS FIRST, THE LAKE EFFECT. SEE
OUR WEBSITE FOR OUR LATEST SNOWFALL MAP THAT I JUST POSTED.
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. I DID SHIFT THE
HEAVIER AXIS OF SNOW FARTHER NORTH, TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS FROM
YESTERDAY EVENING THROUGH NOW. THE CHANGE WILL INCREASE AMOUNTS IN
WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY QUITE A BIT, WHILE DROPPING OFF
SHARPLY TOWARD THE CITY OF UTICA. I KEPT NORTHERN ONONDAGA IN THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL PROBABLY END UP BEING
LOWER OVERALL THAN WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA. THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY IS A REFLECTION OF WHAT WE EXPECT TO
COME, NOT UNDERSTANDING WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW HERE YET. WHILE
THE FORECAST GOING FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THIS POINT
FORWARD, WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW AT ALL FROM THE NEAR THE CITY
OF SYRACUSE SOUTH. THUS I HAVE ADJUSTED TOTALS DOWN ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONONDAGA/MADISON COUNTIES, ALONG WITH NORTHERN
CORTLAND/CHENANGO/OTSEGO.
WHILE THE BAND HAS BEEN MAINLY NORTH OF KSYR AND HAS EVEN WAVERED
BACK INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE BAND WILL
SINK SOUTH BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOW A MEAN WIND OF 275 NOW, ABRUPTLY SHIFTING TOWARD 290 BY 12Z,
THEN LOCKING IN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. KBUF RADAR SHOWS THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE BAND NEAR KROC IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF
THIS CHANGE AND WILL FOLLOW. SO WHILE THE EVENT HAS PLAYED OUT
WELL THUS FAR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY, MANY IN METRO
SYRACUSE AND ALONG THE THRUWAY MAY BE WONDERING WHAT LAKE SNOWS?
DON`T LET YOUR GUARD DOWN YET AS HEAVIER SNOWS WILL SHIFT SOUTH
TODAY. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS GRADUALLY LOWERING TOWARD 5KFT BY
LATE AFTERNOON, THE OVERALL INTENSITY WILL BE HIGHEST THIS
MORNING, THEN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH MID MORNING WILL STILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2"+
RANGE. THE FLOW REMAINS AROUND 290-300 THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT, BEFORE
THE FLOW BACKS ENOUGH TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST TO LIFT THE BAND OUT OF
OUR AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY. IN ALL A WIDESPREAD, LONG
DURATION 6"+ LOOKS GOOD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY, WITH CLOSER TO
1 1/2 FEET OVER WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY. I CONTINUE TO MENTION BLOW
AND DRIFTING SNOW WITHIN AND NEAR THE SNOW BANDS THEMSELVES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
OVERVIEW...SNOW SQUALLS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONT
THAT WILL DELIVER BRUTAL COLD SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL RIVAL WHAT WE SAW LAST FEBRUARY.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT....MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE QUIET WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. FRIDAY EVENING THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 0Z AND 06Z SATURDAY. SNOW
SQUALLS LOOK LIKELY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR POOR VISIBILITY AND
SNOWFALL RATES OF MORE THAN AN INCH PER HOUR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
STEEP LAPSE RATES OF MORE THAN 8.0 C/KM UP THROUGH 650 MB! IN
ADDITION STRONG OMEGA (LIFT/RISING AIR IN THE ATMOSPHERE) IS FOUND
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE RIGHT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. THINK BIG
FLAKES, HIGH EFFICIENCY OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS. WILL ADD CHANCE OF
HEAVY SNOW FOR THE FRIDAY EVENING FORECAST. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A
FEW INCHES LIKELY BUT AGAIN IT WILL BE THE RATE OF FALL WHICH WILL
CAUSE POOR VISIBILITIES AND DANGEROUS ROADS.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...BRUTAL COLD. 850 TEMPS FALL TO BETWEEN
-28C AND -30C! "OFFICIAL" HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS AT
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW ZERO FOR
TEMPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN NY STATE! THIS ALONE IS
COLD BUT A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OCEAN STORM AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH WIND FOR WIND CHILL
READINGS BETWEEN -10 AND -30. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR EXTREME COLD AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN OUR
HWO, ON SOCIAL MEDIA, AND IN OUR ONLINE BRIEFING PACKAGE FOUND AT
WEATHER.GOV/BGM UNDER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING AT THE BOTTOM OF THE
PAGE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE, WITH -20
READINGS POSSIBLE IN OUR COLDER SPOTS. IMPRESSIVE COLD AND THE
ONLY SILVER LINING IS THE FACT IT WON`T LAST LONG. SEE BELOW FOR
MORE ON MILDER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
245 PM THU UPDATE...
WE START OFF WELL SUBZERO DAWN SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN SATURDAY...YET STILL ENOUGH TO YIELD
DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY
BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY- SUNDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO ACTUALLY BUILD IN. LAKE MOISTURE STILL TRAPPED UNDER
THE DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL ALSO CONTINUE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FROM STEUBEN COUNTY THROUGH THE FINGER
LAKES TO SYRACUSE REGIONS...BUT WITH ONLY LIGHT DRY FLUFFY
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND
12 DEGREES.
BUSY PATTERN COMES TOGETHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHARP
TROUGH FROM THIS WEEKEND LIFTS OUT...ONLY FOR MEAN UPPER TROUGH
POSITIONING TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WEST AS A NEW ONE DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS LOOKS
LIKELY TO PRODUCE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH THEN DEEPENS WHILE HEADING NORTHEAST. WITH
RETROGRADED TROUGH...WARMER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT IN AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS...AND WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE ON EXISTENCE OF THE SYSTEM...THEY HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT ON ITS TRACK AND AMOUNT OF WARM AIR RUN-TO-RUN AND
MODEL-TO-MODEL. ONE THING THAT APPEARS MISSING IS HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE NORTHEAST FOR ANCHORING THE COLD AIR...SO THE WARMER TREND IN
LATEST GUIDANCE MAKES SENSE. ALL WE CAN SAY AT THIS POINT IS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS LOOKING PROBABLE ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IS VERY
QUESTIONABLE. STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT BANDS WITH IFR TO BELOW ALT MINS FOR VIS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT KSYR AND KRME THIS AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO
EVENING FOR KSYR BEFORE LIFTING BACK BRIEFLY INTO KRME LATE
TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING. BLSN WILL ALSO HAMPER VIS THIS AFTERNOON
UNTIL THE WNW WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND THEN BACK
SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING /VRB TO SE KRME/. FURTHER
SOUTH...THINNER BANDS WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE OTHER NY
TERMINALS...INCLUDING INTERMITTENT IFR VIS FOR KBGM THROUGH 20Z
AND MVFR VIS FOR KITH. KAVP AND KELM WILL GET FLURRIES BUT LIKELY
NON-RESTRICTING. EXCEPT FOR THE LINGERING KSYR-KRME ISSUES
MENTIONED ABOVE...ALL TERMINALS GO VFR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
.OUTLOOK...
FRI AFTN-NGT...VFR UNTIL STRONG ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH
A PROBABLE LOW VIS SNOW SQUALL ROUGHLY 01Z SAT NW TO 07Z SAT SE.
SAT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN AND GUSTY WINDS/BLSN.
SAT NGT-SUN...LAKE EFFECT SCT -SHSN AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS KSYR AND PERHAPS KITH-KELM.
MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS IN POTENTIAL SNOW-TO-MIX AS AN EAST COAST
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...BEST CHANCE MON NGT-TUE.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ016-017-044>046.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
036-037.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MSE
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1253 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT IN PARTS
OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR MASS SINCE LAST
WINTER. WIND CHILLS WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW...WELL BELOW
ZERO...SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A MODERATING TREND IS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1130 AM... MAIN LAKE EFFECT BANDS CONTINUE E-SE OF LAKE
ONTARIO ON ABOUT A 290 FLOW LATE THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS
SECONDARY WEAKER BANDS FARTHER SOUTH EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN PA.
BANDS STILL APPEAR TO BE SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH AND ARE NEAR THE
THRUWAY LATE THIS MORNING WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY
BANDS TO GET INTO THE CITIES OF SYRACUSE AND UTICA AT SOME POINT
THIS AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECTING SEVERAL INCHES THIS AFTERNOON
FROM NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY EAST TO WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY
WITH LESS TO THE SOUTH. ATMOSPHERE UPSTREAM FROM THESE BANDS IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY DRY AND NO GOOD CONNECTION WITH LAKE HURON /
GEORGIAN BAY CAN BE SEEN ON LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY. ALSO DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL IS NOT OPTIMAL AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME
COLD ENOUGH SO THAT ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER ABOVE -20 C EXISTS BELOW
900 MB.
WILL KEEP CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES GOING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL... ALTHOUGH WARNING TYPE ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST
NORTH OF THE CITY OF SYRACUSE THROUGH TODAY... WITH JUST ANOTHER
COUPLE OF INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREAS TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS WITH
TEENS IN MOST AREAS TO NEAR 20 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN
PA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.
315 AM UPDATE...
WANTED TO SEND OUT AN "EARLY" UPDATE TO REFLECT ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION REGARDING OUR LAKE EFFECT EVENT. WILL SEND OUT A
SEPARATE AFD FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TO GO OVER THE DANGEROUS
COLD OVER THE WEEKEND. FIRST THINGS FIRST, THE LAKE EFFECT. SEE
OUR WEBSITE FOR OUR LATEST SNOWFALL MAP THAT I JUST POSTED.
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. I DID SHIFT THE
HEAVIER AXIS OF SNOW FARTHER NORTH, TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS FROM
YESTERDAY EVENING THROUGH NOW. THE CHANGE WILL INCREASE AMOUNTS IN
WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY QUITE A BIT, WHILE DROPPING OFF
SHARPLY TOWARD THE CITY OF UTICA. I KEPT NORTHERN ONONDAGA IN THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL PROBABLY END UP BEING
LOWER OVERALL THAN WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA. THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY IS A REFLECTION OF WHAT WE EXPECT TO
COME, NOT UNDERSTANDING WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW HERE YET. WHILE
THE FORECAST GOING FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THIS POINT
FORWARD, WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW AT ALL FROM THE NEAR THE CITY
OF SYRACUSE SOUTH. THUS I HAVE ADJUSTED TOTALS DOWN ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONONDAGA/MADISON COUNTIES, ALONG WITH NORTHERN
CORTLAND/CHENANGO/OTSEGO.
WHILE THE BAND HAS BEEN MAINLY NORTH OF KSYR AND HAS EVEN WAVERED
BACK INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE BAND WILL
SINK SOUTH BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOW A MEAN WIND OF 275 NOW, ABRUPTLY SHIFTING TOWARD 290 BY 12Z,
THEN LOCKING IN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. KBUF RADAR SHOWS THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE BAND NEAR KROC IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF
THIS CHANGE AND WILL FOLLOW. SO WHILE THE EVENT HAS PLAYED OUT
WELL THUS FAR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY, MANY IN METRO
SYRACUSE AND ALONG THE THRUWAY MAY BE WONDERING WHAT LAKE SNOWS?
DON`T LET YOUR GUARD DOWN YET AS HEAVIER SNOWS WILL SHIFT SOUTH
TODAY. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS GRADUALLY LOWERING TOWARD 5KFT BY
LATE AFTERNOON, THE OVERALL INTENSITY WILL BE HIGHEST THIS
MORNING, THEN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH MID MORNING WILL STILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2"+
RANGE. THE FLOW REMAINS AROUND 290-300 THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT, BEFORE
THE FLOW BACKS ENOUGH TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST TO LIFT THE BAND OUT OF
OUR AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY. IN ALL A WIDESPREAD, LONG
DURATION 6"+ LOOKS GOOD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY, WITH CLOSER TO
1 1/2 FEET OVER WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY. I CONTINUE TO MENTION BLOW
AND DRIFTING SNOW WITHIN AND NEAR THE SNOW BANDS THEMSELVES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
OVERVIEW...SNOW SQUALLS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONT
THAT WILL DELIVER BRUTAL COLD SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL RIVAL WHAT WE SAW LAST FEBRUARY.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT....MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE QUIET WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. FRIDAY EVENING THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 0Z AND 06Z SATURDAY. SNOW
SQUALLS LOOK LIKELY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR POOR VISIBILITY AND
SNOWFALL RATES OF MORE THAN AN INCH PER HOUR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
STEEP LAPSE RATES OF MORE THAN 8.0 C/KM UP THROUGH 650 MB! IN
ADDITION STRONG OMEGA (LIFT/RISING AIR IN THE ATMOSPHERE) IS FOUND
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE RIGHT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. THINK BIG
FLAKES, HIGH EFFICIENCY OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS. WILL ADD CHANCE OF
HEAVY SNOW FOR THE FRIDAY EVENING FORECAST. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A
FEW INCHES LIKELY BUT AGAIN IT WILL BE THE RATE OF FALL WHICH WILL
CAUSE POOR VISIBILITIES AND DANGEROUS ROADS.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...BRUTAL COLD. 850 TEMPS FALL TO BETWEEN
-28C AND -30C! "OFFICIAL" HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS AT
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW ZERO FOR
TEMPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN NY STATE! THIS ALONE IS
COLD BUT A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OCEAN STORM AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH WIND FOR WIND CHILL
READINGS BETWEEN -10 AND -30. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR EXTREME COLD AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN OUR
HWO, ON SOCIAL MEDIA, AND IN OUR ONLINE BRIEFING PACKAGE FOUND AT
WEATHER.GOV/BGM UNDER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING AT THE BOTTOM OF THE
PAGE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE, WITH -20
READINGS POSSIBLE IN OUR COLDER SPOTS. IMPRESSIVE COLD AND THE
ONLY SILVER LINING IS THE FACT IT WON`T LAST LONG. SEE BELOW FOR
MORE ON MILDER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 PM UPDATE...
ONLY SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH SLIDES EAST RIGHT OVER THE AREA BY LATE DAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS...YET WE START THE DAY WITH SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES SO VERY COLD ANYWAYS. STILL EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT,
THOUGH THIS WILL TEND TO BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY HAS THE
HIGH MOVES IN. HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CATSKILLS NORTH TO THE TUG HILL WITH LOW TO MID TEENS
ELSEWHERE.
PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR CORE OF ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT MODERATION BACK TO AT
LEAST SEASONAL. MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT BUT THERE IS MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING, TRACK, AND INTENSITY. FOR NOW, INDICATE
CHANCE OF SNOW IN GRIDS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE LOW COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING RAIN TO SOME AREAS
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT BANDS WITH IFR TO BELOW ALT MINS FOR VIS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT KSYR AND KRME THIS AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO
EVENING FOR KSYR BEFORE LIFTING BACK BRIEFLY INTO KRME LATE
TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING. BLSN WILL ALSO HAMPER VIS THIS AFTERNOON
UNTIL THE WNW WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND THEN BACK
SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING /VRB TO SE KRME/. FURTHER
SOUTH...THINNER BANDS WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE OTHER NY
TERMINALS...INCLUDING INTERMITTENT IFR VIS FOR KBGM THROUGH 20Z
AND MVFR VIS FOR KITH. KAVP AND KELM WILL GET FLURRIES BUT LIKELY
NON-RESTRICTING. EXCEPT FOR THE LINGERING KSYR-KRME ISSUES
MENTIONED ABOVE...ALL TERMINALS GO VFR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
.OUTLOOK...
FRI AFTN-NGT...VFR UNTIL STRONG ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH
A PROBABLE LOW VIS SNOW SQUALL ROUGHLY 01Z SAT NW TO 07Z SAT SE.
SAT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN AND GUSTY WINDS/BLSN.
SAT NGT-SUN...LAKE EFFECT SCT -SHSN AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS KSYR AND PERHAPS KITH-KELM.
MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS IN POTENTIAL SNOW AS AN EAST COAST SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH...BEST CHANCE MON NGT-TUE.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ016-017-044>046.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
036-037.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MSE
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1152 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT IN PARTS
OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR MASS SINCE LAST
WINTER. WIND CHILLS WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW...WELL BELOW
ZERO...SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A MODERATING TREND IS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1130 AM... MAIN LAKE EFFECT BANDS CONTINUE E-SE OF LAKE
ONTARIO ON ABOUT A 290 FLOW LATE THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS
SECONDARY WEAKER BANDS FARTHER SOUTH EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN PA.
BANDS STILL APPEAR TO BE SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH AND ARE NEAR THE
THRUWAY LATE THIS MORNING WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY
BANDS TO GET INTO THE CITIES OF SYRACUSE AND UTICA AT SOME POINT
THIS AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECTING SEVERAL INCHES THIS AFTERNOON
FROM NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY EAST TO WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY
WITH LESS TO THE SOUTH. ATMOSPHERE UPSTREAM FROM THESE BANDS IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY DRY AND NO GOOD CONNECTION WITH LAKE HURON /
GEORGIAN BAY CAN BE SEEN ON LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY. ALSO DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL IS NOT OPTIMAL AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME
COLD ENOUGH SO THAT ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER ABOVE -20 C EXISTS BELOW
900 MB.
WILL KEEP CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES GOING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL... ALTHOUGH WARNING TYPE ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST
NORTH OF THE CITY OF SYRACUSE THROUGH TODAY... WITH JUST ANOTHER
COUPLE OF INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREAS TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS WITH
TEENS IN MOST AREAS TO NEAR 20 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN
PA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.
315 AM UPDATE...
WANTED TO SEND OUT AN "EARLY" UPDATE TO REFLECT ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION REGARDING OUR LAKE EFFECT EVENT. WILL SEND OUT A
SEPARATE AFD FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TO GO OVER THE DANGEROUS
COLD OVER THE WEEKEND. FIRST THINGS FIRST, THE LAKE EFFECT. SEE
OUR WEBSITE FOR OUR LATEST SNOWFALL MAP THAT I JUST POSTED.
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. I DID SHIFT THE
HEAVIER AXIS OF SNOW FARTHER NORTH, TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS FROM
YESTERDAY EVENING THROUGH NOW. THE CHANGE WILL INCREASE AMOUNTS IN
WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY QUITE A BIT, WHILE DROPPING OFF
SHARPLY TOWARD THE CITY OF UTICA. I KEPT NORTHERN ONONDAGA IN THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL PROBABLY END UP BEING
LOWER OVERALL THAN WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA. THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY IS A REFLECTION OF WHAT WE EXPECT TO
COME, NOT UNDERSTANDING WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW HERE YET. WHILE
THE FORECAST GOING FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THIS POINT
FORWARD, WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW AT ALL FROM THE NEAR THE CITY
OF SYRACUSE SOUTH. THUS I HAVE ADJUSTED TOTALS DOWN ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONONDAGA/MADISON COUNTIES, ALONG WITH NORTHERN
CORTLAND/CHENANGO/OTSEGO.
WHILE THE BAND HAS BEEN MAINLY NORTH OF KSYR AND HAS EVEN WAVERED
BACK INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE BAND WILL
SINK SOUTH BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOW A MEAN WIND OF 275 NOW, ABRUPTLY SHIFTING TOWARD 290 BY 12Z,
THEN LOCKING IN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. KBUF RADAR SHOWS THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE BAND NEAR KROC IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF
THIS CHANGE AND WILL FOLLOW. SO WHILE THE EVENT HAS PLAYED OUT
WELL THUS FAR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY, MANY IN METRO
SYRACUSE AND ALONG THE THRUWAY MAY BE WONDERING WHAT LAKE SNOWS?
DON`T LET YOUR GUARD DOWN YET AS HEAVIER SNOWS WILL SHIFT SOUTH
TODAY. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS GRADUALLY LOWERING TOWARD 5KFT BY
LATE AFTERNOON, THE OVERALL INTENSITY WILL BE HIGHEST THIS
MORNING, THEN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH MID MORNING WILL STILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2"+
RANGE. THE FLOW REMAINS AROUND 290-300 THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT, BEFORE
THE FLOW BACKS ENOUGH TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST TO LIFT THE BAND OUT OF
OUR AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY. IN ALL A WIDESPREAD, LONG
DURATION 6"+ LOOKS GOOD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY, WITH CLOSER TO
1 1/2 FEET OVER WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY. I CONTINUE TO MENTION BLOW
AND DRIFTING SNOW WITHIN AND NEAR THE SNOW BANDS THEMSELVES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
OVERVIEW...SNOW SQUALLS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONT
THAT WILL DELIVER BRUTAL COLD SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL RIVAL WHAT WE SAW LAST FEBRUARY.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT....MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE QUIET WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. FRIDAY EVENING THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 0Z AND 06Z SATURDAY. SNOW
SQUALLS LOOK LIKELY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR POOR VISIBILITY AND
SNOWFALL RATES OF MORE THAN AN INCH PER HOUR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
STEEP LAPSE RATES OF MORE THAN 8.0 C/KM UP THROUGH 650 MB! IN
ADDITION STRONG OMEGA (LIFT/RISING AIR IN THE ATMOSPHERE) IS FOUND
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE RIGHT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. THINK BIG
FLAKES, HIGH EFFICIENCY OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS. WILL ADD CHANCE OF
HEAVY SNOW FOR THE FRIDAY EVENING FORECAST. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A
FEW INCHES LIKELY BUT AGAIN IT WILL BE THE RATE OF FALL WHICH WILL
CAUSE POOR VISIBILITIES AND DANGEROUS ROADS.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...BRUTAL COLD. 850 TEMPS FALL TO BETWEEN
-28C AND -30C! "OFFICIAL" HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS AT
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW ZERO FOR
TEMPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN NY STATE! THIS ALONE IS
COLD BUT A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OCEAN STORM AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH WIND FOR WIND CHILL
READINGS BETWEEN -10 AND -30. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR EXTREME COLD AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN OUR
HWO, ON SOCIAL MEDIA, AND IN OUR ONLINE BRIEFING PACKAGE FOUND AT
WEATHER.GOV/BGM UNDER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING AT THE BOTTOM OF THE
PAGE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE, WITH -20
READINGS POSSIBLE IN OUR COLDER SPOTS. IMPRESSIVE COLD AND THE
ONLY SILVER LINING IS THE FACT IT WON`T LAST LONG. SEE BELOW FOR
MORE ON MILDER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 PM UPDATE...
ONLY SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH SLIDES EAST RIGHT OVER THE AREA BY LATE DAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS...YET WE START THE DAY WITH SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES SO VERY COLD ANYWAYS. STILL EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT,
THOUGH THIS WILL TEND TO BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY HAS THE
HIGH MOVES IN. HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CATSKILLS NORTH TO THE TUG HILL WITH LOW TO MID TEENS
ELSEWHERE.
PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR CORE OF ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT MODERATION BACK TO AT
LEAST SEASONAL. MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT BUT THERE IS MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING, TRACK, AND INTENSITY. FOR NOW, INDICATE
CHANCE OF SNOW IN GRIDS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE LOW COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING RAIN TO SOME AREAS
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LE SNOW BAND IS XPCTD TO DROP SWRD ACROSS RME AND STALL IN THE SYR
AREA FOR SVRL HRS TODAY. THIS WEILL BRING BRIEF IFR CONDS TO
RME...AND PROLONGED IFR CIGS AND VSBY TO SYR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
ELSEWHERE...SCT SNOW SHWRS WILL BRING BRIEF LWR CONDS BUT MUCH OF
THE DAY WILL BE VFR ELSEWHERE. BAND IS XPCTD TO LIFT NWRD LTR THIS
EVE LVG VFR CONDS AT ALL STATIONS.
.OUTLOOK...
FRI THRU SUN...VARIABLE CEILING AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW AND BANDS OF MORE INTENSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF. LESS COVERAGE AND TIME
AFFECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS.
MON...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ016-017-044>046.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
036-037.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MSE
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
241 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016
.DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE THINNING OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH NEAR
35N/140W. THIS SHOULD SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT LATE TONIGHT. CURRENT HRRR MODEL SUGGEST THIS AND IS IN LINE
WITH THE NAM AND GFS. THEREFORE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN FOR THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT, KEEPING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN OVER THE
MARINE WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST, NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. I DON`T
THINK RAINFALL WILL MAKE MUCH IF ANY PROGRESS INLAND TONIGHT, BUT
STILL KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND IN
PORTIONS OF COOS AND NORTHWEST DOUGLAS COUNTY. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING, THEN MOVING
ONSHORE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN WITH MOST OF THE RAIN CENTERED ALONG THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES. EVEN THEN, QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SIGNIFICANT AND MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING LOWER WITH QPF AMOUNTS.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER ON FRIDAY, BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALL THE
PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY.
A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK SHORT
WAVE MOVING THROUGH. MOST SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CASCADES, BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH SNOW
LEVELS BETWEEN 4500 AND 5000 FEET. THEREFORE WERE NOT EXPECTING
MUCH, IF ANY IMPACT ON ANY OF THE ROADS IN THE CASCADES.
500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASE SOME AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY DURING THE DAY, THEN A WARM FRONT
WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING, THEN THE FOCUS WILL
SHIFT SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL INCREASE AND LIKELY BE ABOVE ALL THE PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
RAIN DECREASING, THEN ENDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. -PETRUCELLI
.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS AND THE
ENSEMBLE PLOTS START IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST SHUNTING SYSTEMS JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT IS NOT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING THAT
THE MODEL PLOTS SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE...BUT THE MAIN
DIFFERENCES ARE WITH TIMING OF THE SHIFTING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE EAST. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING
PRECIPITATION ONTO THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH THE ECMWF
BRINGING IT IN IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM THERE THE OVERALL PATTERN OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST REMAINS FOR ALL OF THE
PLOTS...BUT THAT IS THE ONLY AGREEMENT WITH PLOTS ALL OVER THE
PLACE WITH DEPTH AND PLACEMENT OF THESE UPPER TROUGHS. WITH THIS IN
MIND HAVE GONE WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. -SVEN
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12/00Z TAF CYCLE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
INTO TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND SPREAD INLAND TO THE CASCADES DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED.
-JRS
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016...MIXED WEST SWELL AT
19 TO 20 SECONDS AND SOUTHWEST SWELL AT 10 TO 11 SECONDS WILL BECOME
WESTERLY AT 17 TO 18 SECONDS TONIGHT...THEN REMAIN WESTERLY WITH A
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY. COMBINED SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 13 TO 14 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...SUBSIDE TO 12 FEET
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...REBUILD TO 12 TO 13 FEET
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN SUBSIDE BELOW 10 FEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE FRIDAY MORNING...AND THIS WILL BRING
SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS TONIGHT. OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FRIDAY...THEN WEAKEN SATURDAY. A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD SUNDAY...THEN WEAKEN TUESDAY AS A STRONGER
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. -JRS
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST SUNDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST FRIDAY
FOR PZZ370.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
902 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016
.DISCUSSION...THE WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS IS MOVING NORTHEAST AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TAKING ALL THE SHOWERS WITH IT. IN
IT`S WAKE SOME CLEARING IS DEVELOPING IN NORTHERN CAL AND
SOUTHWEST OREGON AND SOME OF THIS COULD MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGEST
MOST HOURS AND LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND
NAM ALSO SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE, POPS WILL BE LOWERED
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF TONIGHT, THEN A COLD FRONT
WILL REACH THE COAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, THEN MOVE ONSHORE
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 11/12Z TAF CYCLE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND
PRIMARY AIRFIELDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WARM FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY. EXPECT SOME PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD,
AND GREATEST OVER THE COAST RANGE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
BTL
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 305 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016...LONG PERIOD WEST
SWELL WILL BUILD TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. AFTER A BREAK ON FRIDAY AND MOST OF SATURDAY ANOTHER FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
LIKELY TO REBUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A
STRONGER FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BTL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016/
SHORT TERM...A SHORTWAVE RIDING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT HAS KICKED OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER OUR AREA THIS MORNING. NO
RAIN HAS HIT ANY OF THE OBSERVING SITES YET, BUT RADAR SHOWS
ISOLATED SHOWERS DRIFTING THROUGH RIGHT NOW. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE THIS MORNING AS THE MAIN PART OF THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES,
AND RADAR IS SHOWING A LOT MORE SHOWERS OFF THE NW CALIFORNIA
COAST MOVING OUR WAY. MODELS SHOW THESE SHOWERS BEING CONFINED
MOSTLY TO THE CASCADE CREST AND WEST SIDE, BUT SOME SHOWERS
CERTAINLY COULD DRIFT OVER ONTO THE EAST SIDE. POPS HAVE BEEN
RAISED THIS MORNING.
WE WILL PROBABLY SEE AT LEAST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AND BRING LIGHT
RAIN TO MOST WEST SIDE LOCATIONS AS IT MOVES INLAND FRIDAY. WE`RE
NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF RAIN WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS PROBABLY ONLY
SEEING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN. HOWEVER, MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS COULD
SEE UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH
(ABOVE 8000 FEET MOST OF THE DAY), SO IT WILL BE RAIN EXCEPT AT
THE HIGHEST PEAKS. SNOW MAY MAKE IT DOWN TO CRATER LAKE AND MT
ASHLAND BY DAY`S END, BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN BY THEN. POPS WERE RAISED TO AT LEAST LIKELY ON THE
WEST SIDE FOR FRIDAY.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE A BIT OF A BREAK WITH LEFTOVER MORNING SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTH DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. ELSEWHERE, THE DAY
OUGHT TO BE DRY. THE PREVIOUS SHIFT`S THINKING REGARDING SUNDAY`S
SYSTEM STILL LOOKS REASONABLE AND THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. THE ONE CHANGE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
THIS MORNING WAS TO RAISE POPS ON SUNDAY. -WRIGHT
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT WITH GOOD
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL RIDE OVER THE TOP OF A FLAT RIDGE ON
SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP ONSHORE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
RESULT IN RAIN, FOCUSED ON NORTH AND WEST FACING TERRAIN ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH LIGHTER RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE WELL ABOVE THE MAJOR PASSES AND LIKELY ABOVE 8000 FEET IN MOST
AREAS. THE WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD IN THE AFTERNOON AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL EASE...EFFECTIVELY SHUTTING OFF RAINFALL
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CWA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.
MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT OVER THE AREA
MONDAY WITH MOST, IF NOT ALL PRECIPITATION REMAINING TO THE
NORTH OF THE CWA. MODELS DIFFER A BIT WITH RESPECT TO ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER THE RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS
KEEPS IT WAY TO THE NORTH WHERE IT WOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR
WEATHER. THE ECMWF THOUGH HAS IT FARTHER SOUTH. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY, WE HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM
THE COAST TO THE CASCADES AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. IT
SHOULD STAY DRY IN THE ROGUE VALLEY.
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH
TO IMPACT THE AREA WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS
LIKELY FROM THE COAST TO THE CASCADES WITH HIGH CHANCES EVEN OVER
THE EAST SIDE. SNOW LEVELS START OUT HIGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT
COULD DROP DOWN TO 3000 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT BY THURSDAY MORNING.
-SPILDE
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST SUNDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST FRIDAY
FOR PZZ350-370.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
434 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WIND WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS GOING THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. AN ARCTIC BLAST
WILL DELIVER THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.
THE ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A ROUND OF
BLINDING SNOW SQUALLS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
DANGEROUS COLD AND VERY LOW WIND CHILLS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NUMEROUS...NARROW BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND BRIEF SQUALLS
CONTINUE TO STREAM SE AND WELL INLAND FROM THE GLAKES THIS
AFTERNOON...MAKING IT ALL THE WAY INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY REGION /AND IN FACT...RIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD/.
BRIEF...REDUCED VSBYS TO BETWEEN 1/4-1/2SM WILL IMPACT TRAVEL
WITHIN THESE NARROW SNOW BANDS THAT COULD DROP UP TO ONE INCH OF
FLUFF IN JUST A 30 MINUTE PERIOD.
18Z HRRR COMBINED WITH A LOOK AT THE LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
VIA THE NAM INDICATE THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS/BRIEF SQUALLS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL 23 THU-01Z FRIDAY BEFORE QUICKLY DISSIPATING AS THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DROPS FROM 7-8 KFT AGL...TO UNDER 4 KFT AGL.
WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES OVER THE LAURELS
AND WRN MTNS...AND LES WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR THE FAR NW
SNOWBELT WHERE PERSISTENT UPSLOPE AND LES SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH COLDER LATE TDY WITH WIND CHILLS
BETWEEN -10 AND +10 ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS WILL JUST BE A TASTE OF WHAT LOOKS LIKE IS ON THE
HORIZON FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT RIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT
BRINGING GRADUAL CLEARING. FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LIFT NORTH EARLY TONIGHT AND BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE
NORTHERN TIER BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
TEMPS DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT AS SOME CLEARING TAKES
PLACE IN THE NW...BUT THE CALM AIR IN THE SE COULD CAUSE THE TEMPS
THERE TO BECOME COLDER IN A FEW OF THE PERENNIAL COLD RURAL
AREAS...SUCH AS SEG AND THV - MAKING THEM 3-5F COLDER THAN THE
SURROUNDING LOCALES.
THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY SHOULD BE QUIET WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WSW WIND. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE FROM THE SW AS SOME MEAGER WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN AHEAD
OF THE WELL- ADVERTISED ARCTIC FRONT. SOME LIGHT SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTN...BUT ACCUMS SHOULD BE MEAGER
/GENERALLY UNDER 1/2 INCH. TEMPS WILL TRY TO GET INTO THE 20S ALL
OVER BUT THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER IN THE NW WILL LIKELY LIMIT
THEM TO THE UPPER TEENS.
ARCTIC FRONT AND AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STEEP 850-700 MB LAPSE
RATES GREATER THAN 8C/KM WILL PLOW ACROSS THE STATE LATE
FRIDAY IN THE NW...AND AFTER DARK - FRIDAY NIGHT ELSEWHERE. THIS
SHOULD BE ONE OF THOSE ONCE IN A YEAR /OR SEVERAL YEAR/ EVENTS
COMPLETE WITH DANGEROUS BLINDING SNOW SQUALLS CREATING WIDESPREAD
TRAFFIC/TRAVEL PROBLEMS...FROM THE COMBINED EFFECT OF HEAVY
FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW - AMOUNTING TO BETWEEN 1-3 INCHES IN A
SHORT 30 TO 60 MINUTE PERIOD. THUNDER WAS ALSO MENTIONED IN THE
GRIDDED WEATHER FIELDS...ESP ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE STATE BASED
ON THE LATE DAY/EVENING TIMING OF THE ARCTIC FROPA.
WIND CHILLS DIP TO UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA /-15F/ EARLY SAT
MORNING ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...AND DROP TO NEAR OR SEVERAL DEG F
BELOW ZERO ELSEWHERE BY THEN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND. POTENTIAL WINTER STORM EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
POLAR VORTEX DIVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL DELIVER THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WITH ARCTIC BLAST INTO CENTRAL PA SAT-
SUN. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP A MEAN TROUGH IN PLACE
OVER THE EASTERN US INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MOST NOTABLE
FEATURE DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
UP THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY. THE LATEST 11/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED WEST WITH THE LOW TRACK...BUT THERE IS STILL A DECENT
SPREAD. AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS LIKELY
MON-TUE BUT THE TRACK WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE PRECIPITATION
TYPE. NEXT WEEK SHOULD END ON A MILDER NOTE.
THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
LIKELY WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ. VALLEY
TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA. A WIND
CHILL WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR NORTHERN PA WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN
REACHING -25F WIND CHILLS. WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE A GOOD BET
IN LATER SHIFTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AND PRECAUTIONS
SHOULD BE MADE NOW TO PROTECT/PREPARE FOR THE UPCOMING COLD SNAP.
A MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MODEL SPREAD HAS NARROWED A BIT CONCERNING A POTENTIAL WINTER
STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE MID ATLC/NORTHEAST NEXT MON-TUE. THE
11/12Z OPERATIONAL EC REMAINS ON THE WWD EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE
FOLLOWED BY THE CANADIAN GEM AND GFS/GEFS. THE GFS/GEFS HAVE BOTH
TRENDED WWD FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
PTYPES BUT ALL THE MODELS ARE SIGNALING A SIGNIFICANT QPF
EVENT...AND THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THE THE LKLY RANGE
FOR DAY 5.5-6 /MON NGT-TUESDAY/.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC SNOW WILL RESULT IN MAINLY IFR VSBYS AT
KBFD/KJST AND POSSIBLY MVFR AT AOO...THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EVENING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE WHEN THE MEAN
LLVL WIND BACKS FROM THE NW...TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BY 06Z.
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE...THE VALLEY REGION...AND OVER THE
SUSQ VALLEY AIRFIELDS...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. THE SNOW
BANDS COULD POSSIBLY BRING IPT AT UNV TO MFR CIGS THROUGH 03Z...WITH
EVEN SOME VERY BRIEF IFR IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS.
A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35KTS FOR THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS DIURNAL
HEATING/MIXING WITHIN THE RATHER DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER ALLOWS
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO GROUND LEVEL.
ARRIVAL OF SFC RIDGE SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
DIMINISHING WIND TO CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...PM SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS LIKELY...ESP W MTNS. PERIODS OF
LIFR/VLIFR IN INTENSE SNOW SQUALLS LATE FRIDAY /NW/ AND FRIDAY
NIGHT EARLY SAT MORNING CENTRAL AND SE.
SAT...WINDY. SHSN/REDUCED VIS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AM.
SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
MON...PM SNOW POSSIBLE.
MON NIGHT AND TUE...SNOW LIKELY NW HALF OF PENN...WITH RAIN OR
SNOW IN THE SE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ005.
WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR PAZ004>006-037-041-042.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ010-017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
422 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WIND WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS GOING THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. AN ARCTIC BLAST
WILL DELIVER THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.
THE ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A ROUND OF
BLINDING SNOW SQUALLS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
DANGEROUS COLD AND VERY LOW WIND CHILLS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NUMEROUS...NARROW BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND BRIEF SQUALLS
CONTINUE TO STREAM SE AND WELL INLAND FROM THE GLAKES THIS
AFTERNOON...MAKING IT ALL THE WAY INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY REGION /AND IN FACT...RIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD/.
BRIEF...REDUCED VSBYS TO BETWEEN 1/4-1/2SM WILL IMPACT TRAVEL
WITHIN THESE NARROW SNOW BANDS THAT COULD DROP UP TO ONE INCH OF
FLUFF IN JUST A 30 MINUTE PERIOD.
18Z HRRR COMBINED WITH A LOOK AT THE LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
VIA THE NAM INDICATE THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS/BRIEF SQUALLS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL 23 THU-01Z FRIDAY BEFORE QUICKLY DISSIPATING AS THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DROPS FROM 7-8 KFT AGL...TO UNDER 4 KFT AGL.
WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES OVER THE LAURELS
AND WRN MTNS...AND LES WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR THE FAR NW
SNOWBELT WHERE PERSISTENT UPSLOPE AND LES SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH COLDER LATE TDY WITH WIND CHILLS
BETWEEN -10 AND +10 ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS WILL JUST BE A TASTE OF WHAT LOOKS LIKE IS ON THE
HORIZON FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT RIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT
BRINGING GRADUAL CLEARING. FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LIFT NORTH EARLY TONIGHT AND BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE
NORTHERN TIER BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
TEMPS DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT AS SOME CLEARING TAKES
PLACE IN THE NW...BUT THE CALM AIR IN THE SE COULD CAUSE THE TEMPS
THERE TO BECOME COLDER IN A FEW OF THE PERENNIAL COLD RURAL
AREAS...SUCH AS SEG AND THV - MAKING THEM 3-5F COLDER THAN THE
SURROUNDING LOCALES.
THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY SHOULD BE QUIET WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WSW WIND. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE FROM THE SW AS SOME MEAGER WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN AHEAD
OF THE WELL- ADVERTISED ARCTIC FRONT. SOME LIGHT SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTN...BUT ACCUMS SHOULD BE MEAGER
/GENERALLY UNDER 1/2 INCH. TEMPS WILL TRY TO GET INTO THE 20S ALL
OVER BUT THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER IN THE NW WILL LIKELY LIMIT
THEM TO THE UPPER TEENS.
ARCTIC FRONT AND AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STEEP 850-700 MB LAPSE
RATES GREATER THAN 8C/KM WILL PLOW ACROSS THE STATE LATE
FRIDAY IN THE NW...AND AFTER DARK - FRIDAY NIGHT ELSEWHERE. THIS
SHOULD BE ONE OF THOSE ONCE IN A YEAR /OR SEVERAL YEAR/ EVENTS
COMPLETE WITH DANGEROUS BLINDING SNOW SQUALLS CREATING WIDESPREAD
TRAFFIC/TRAVEL PROBLEMS...FROM THE COMBINED EFFECT OF HEAVY
FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW - AMOUNTING TO BETWEEN 1-3 INCHES IN A
SHORT 30 TO 60 MINUTE PERIOD. THUNDER WAS ALSO MENTIONED IN THE
GRIDDED WEATHER FIELDS...ESP ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE STATE BASED
ON THE LATE DAY/EVENING TIMING OF THE ARCTIC FROPA.
WIND CHILLS DIP TO UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA /-15F/ EARLY SAT
MORNING ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...AND DROP TO NEAR OR SEVERAL DEG F
BELOW ZERO ELSEWHERE BY THEN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND. POTENTIAL WINTER STORM EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
POLAR VORTEX DIVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL DELIVER THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WITH ARCTIC BLAST INTO CENTRAL PA SAT-
SUN. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP A MEAN TROUGH IN PLACE
OVER THE EASTERN US INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MOST NOTABLE
FEATURE DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
UP THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY. THE LATEST 11/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED WEST WITH THE LOW TRACK...BUT THERE IS STILL A DECENT
SPREAD. AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS LIKELY
MON-TUE BUT THE TRACK WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE PRECIPITATION
TYPE. NEXT WEEK SHOULD END ON A MILDER NOTE.
THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
LIKELY WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ. VALLEY
TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA. A WIND
CHILL WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR NORTHERN PA WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN
REACHING -25F WIND CHILLS. WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE A GOOD BET
IN LATER SHIFTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AND PRECAUTIONS
SHOULD BE MADE NOW TO PROTECT/PREPARE FOR THE UPCOMING COLD SNAP.
A MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MODEL SPREAD HAS NARROWED A BIT CONCERNING A POTENTIAL WINTER
STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE MID ATLC/NORTHEAST NEXT MON-TUE. THE
11/12Z OPERATIONAL EC REMAINS ON THE WWD EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE
FOLLOWED BY THE CANADIAN GEM AND GFS/GEFS. THE GFS/GEFS HAVE BOTH
TRENDED WWD FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
PTYPES BUT ALL THE MODELS ARE SIGNALING A SIGNIFICANT QPF
EVENT...AND THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THE THE LKLY RANGE
FOR DAY 5.5-6 /MON NGT-TUESDAY/.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC SNOW WILL RESULT IN MAINLY IFR VSBYS AT
KBFD/KJST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE BEGINNING THIS EVENING WHEN THE MEAN LLVL WIND BACKS FROM
THE NW...TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY
JUST TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND OVER THE SUSQ
VALLEY AIRFIELDS...MAINLY VFR AT 19Z...MAY DROP BRIEFLY TO UPPER
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS...WITH EVEN SOME VERY BRIEF IFR IN THE
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS.
A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25KTS FOR THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING WITHIN THE RATHER
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER ALLOWS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO GROUND
LEVEL.
ARRIVAL OF SFC RIDGE SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
DIMINISHING WIND TO CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...PM SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS LIKELY...ESP W MTNS. PERIODS OF
LIFR/VLIFR IN INTENSE SNOW SQUALLS LATE FRIDAY /NW/ AND FRIDAY
NIGHT EARLY SAT MORNING CENTRAL AND SE.
SAT...WINDY. SHSN/REDUCED VIS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AM.
SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
MON...PM SNOW POSSIBLE.
MON NIGHT AND TUE...SNOW LIKELY NW HALF OF PENN...WITH RAIN OR
SNOW IN THE SE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ005.
WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR PAZ004>006-037-041-042.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ010-017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
305 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WIND WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS GOING THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. AN ARCTIC BLAST
WILL DELIVER THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.
THE ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A ROUND OF
BLINDING SNOW SQUALLS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY
DANGEROUS COLD AND VERY LOW WIND CHILLS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NUMEROUS...NARROW BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND BRIEF SQUALLS
CONTINUE TO STREAM SE AND WELL INLAND FROM THE GLAKES THIS
AFTERNOON...MAKING IT ALL THE WAY INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY REGION /AND IN FACT...RIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD/.
BRIEF...REDUCED VSBYS TO BETWEEN 1/4-1/2SM WILL IMPACT TRAVEL
WITHIN THESE NARROW SNOW BANDS THAT COULD DROP UP TO ONE INCH OF
FLUFF IN JUST A 30 MINUTE PERIOD.
18Z HRRR COMBINED WITH A LOOK AT THE LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
VIA THE NAM INDICATE THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS/BRIEF SQUALLS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL 23 THU-01Z FRIDAY BEFORE QUICKLY DISSIPATING AS THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DROPS FROM 7-8 KFT AGL...TO UNDER 4 KFT AGL.
WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES OVER THE LAURELS
AND WRN MTNS...AND LES WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR THE FAR NW
SNOWBELT WHERE PERSISTENT UPSLOPE AND LES SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH COLDER LATE TDY WITH WIND CHILLS
BETWEEN -10 AND +10 ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS WILL JUST BE A TASTE OF WHAT LOOKS LIKE IS ON THE
HORIZON FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT RIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT
BRINGING GRADUAL CLEARING. FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LIFT NORTH EARLY TONIGHT AND BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE
NORTHERN TIER BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
TEMPS DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT AS SOME CLEARING TAKES
PLACE IN THE NW...BUT THE CALM AIR IN THE SE COULD CAUSE THE TEMPS
THERE TO BECOME COLDER IN A FEW OF THE PERENNIAL COLD RURAL
AREAS...SUCH AS SEG AND THV - MAKING THEM 3-5F COLDER THAN THE
SURROUNDING LOCALES.
THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY SHOULD BE QUIET WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WSW WIND. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE FROM THE SW AS SOME MEAGER WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN AHEAD
OF THE WELL- ADVERTISED ARCTIC FRONT. SOME LIGHT SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTN...BUT ACCUMS SHOULD BE MEAGER
/GENERALLY UNDER 1/2 INCH. TEMPS WILL TRY TO GET INTO THE 20S ALL
OVER BUT THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER IN THE NW WILL LIKELY LIMIT
THEM TO THE UPPER TEENS.
ARCTIC FRONT AND AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STEEP 850-700 MB LAPSE
RATES GREATER THAN 8C/KM WILL PLOW ACROSS THE STATE LATE
FRIDAY IN THE NW...AND AFTER DARK - FRIDAY NIGHT ELSEWHERE. THIS
SHOULD BE ONE OF THOSE ONCE IN A YEAR /OR SEVERAL YEAR/ EVENTS
COMPLETE WITH DANGEROUS BLINDING SNOW SQUALLS CREATING WIDESPREAD
TRAFFIC/TRAVEL PROBLEMS...FROM THE COMBINED EFFECT OF HEAVY
FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW - AMOUNTING TO BETWEEN 1-3 INCHES IN A
SHORT 30 TO 60 MINUTE PERIOD. THUNDER WAS ALSO MENTIONED IN THE
GRIDDED WEATHER FIELDS...ESP ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE STATE BASED
ON THE LATE DAY/EVENING TIMING OF THE ARCTIC FROPA.
WIND CHILLS DIP TO UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA /-15F/ EARLY SAT
MORNING ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...AND DROP TO NEAR OR SEVERAL DEG F
BELOW ZERO ELSEWHERE BY THEN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS LIKELY WITH ARCTIC FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.
POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN US INTO NEXT WEEK. EMERGENCE OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW CREATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION MON-WED BUT WITH A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE. A PATTERN SHIFT TO PACIFIC ZONAL-TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH RISING/ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS IS FCST BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FAVORS A RETURN TO MILDER WEATHER.
LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON SUNDAY...AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE
FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
LIKELY WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ. VALLEY
TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA. WIND
CHILL HEADLINES ARE A GOOD BET AND PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE MADE NOW
TO PROTECT/PREPARE FOR THE UPCOMING COLD SNAP.
A MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD CONCERNING A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL EC
REMAINS MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS IN DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE AND HAS TRENDED EVEN FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH IS 10/12Z
RUN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW BUT THE SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC SNOW WILL RESULT IN MAINLY IFR VSBYS AT
KBFD/KJST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE BEGINNING THIS EVENING WHEN THE MEAN LLVL WIND BACKS FROM
THE NW...TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY
JUST TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND OVER THE SUSQ
VALLEY AIRFIELDS...MAINLY VFR AT 19Z...MAY DROP BRIEFLY TO UPPER
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS...WITH EVEN SOME VERY BRIEF IFR IN THE
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS.
A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25KTS FOR THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING WITHIN THE RATHER
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER ALLOWS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO GROUND
LEVEL.
ARRIVAL OF SFC RIDGE SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
DIMINISHING WIND TO CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...PM SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS LIKELY...ESP W MTNS. PERIODS OF
LIFR/VLIFR IN INTENSE SNOW SQUALLS LATE FRIDAY /NW/ AND FRIDAY
NIGHT EARLY SAT MORNING CENTRAL AND SE.
SAT...WINDY. SHSN/REDUCED VIS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AM.
SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
MON...PM SNOW POSSIBLE.
MON NIGHT AND TUE...SNOW LIKELY NW HALF OF PENN...WITH RAIN OR
SNOW IN THE SE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ010-017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1206 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WIND WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AN ARCTIC BLAST WILL
DELIVER THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR VALENTINES
WEEKEND...PRECEDED BY A ROUND OF BLINDING SNOW SQUALLS LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND FOLLOWED BY DANGEROUS COLD AND VERY
LOW WIND CHILLS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MULTIPLE NARROW BANDS OF SNOW SQUALLS CONTINUE TO STREAM SE AND
WELL INLAND FROM THE GLAKES LATE THIS MORNING...MAKING IT ALL THE
WAY INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY REGION /AND IN
FACT...RIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD/. BRIEF...GREATLY
REDUCED VSBYS POSE A SIGNIF IMPACT TO TRAVEL WITHIN THESE NARROW
BUT RATHER INTENSE SNOW BANDS THAT COULD DROP UP TO ONE INCH OF
FLUFF IN JUST A 15-20 MINUTE PERIOD.
LATEST...15Z HRRR COMBINED WITH A LOOK AT THE LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES VIA THE NAM INDICATE THAT THE TARGET AREA FOR ONE OR TWO
EXTENSIVE/INTENSE SQUALL BANDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NE HALF OF THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS MEAN BLYR WINDS BACK JUST 5-10 DEGREES.
THESE SNOW BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A GOOD DUAL LAKE CONNECTION
FLOWING OVER THE LONG AXIS OF LAKE HURON. WILL FORECAST MAINLY A
COATING TO ONE INCH ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM KUNV TO
KSEG...HOWEVER SOME LOCATIONS IN THE CENTRAL MTNS AND WEST
BRANCH/MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY COULD SEE ANOTHER QUICK 2-3 INCHES OF
FLUFFY/WIND BLOWN SNOW BETWEEN 14Z AND 23Z.
SOME LOCATIONS MAY NEED TO BE PLACED IN A SHORT FUSED WINT
WEATHER ADVIS DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THIS MESOSCALE FEATURE
SETS UP. WILL BE MONITORING RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RES MESO MODELS
CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES OVER THE LAURELS
AND WRN MTNS...AND LES WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR THE FAR NW
SNOWBELT WHERE PERSISTENT UPSLOPE AND LES SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE MEAN LLVL FLOW BACKS MORE TO
THE WEST AND THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BEGINS TO DROP QUICKLY FROM
7-8 KFT AGL...TO UNDER 4 KFT AGL.
THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH COLDER TODAY WITH WIND CHILLS
BETWEEN -10 AND +10 ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ALL DAY LONG. THE
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL JUST BE A TASTE OF WHAT LOOKS LIKE IS ON
THE HORIZON FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE SNOW SHOWERS DO BEGIN TO TAPER OFF IN THE LATE AFTN AND
EVENING. THE ACCUMS SHOULD BECOME NEGLIGABLE NOT TOO LONG AFTER
SUNSET. THE END TIMING OF THE ADVYS/WARNING WILL BE KEPT AS IS AT
03Z. HOWEVER...MANY PLACES S OF ELK CO WILL SEE JUST A FLURRY OR
TWO IN THE EVENING. TEMPS DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT AS
SOME CLEARING TAKES PLACE IN THE NW...BUT THE CALM AIR IN THE SE
COULD CAUSE THE TEMPS THERE TO BECOME COLDER. SNOW PACK AND CALM
AIR DO WONDERS TO MAKE IT COLDER THAN WE THINK IT WILL BE. WILL
PAINT IN A DIP AROUND THE TYPICAL FRIDGES OF SEG AND THV - MAKING
THEM 3-5F COLDER THAN THE SURROUNDING LOCALES.
THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY SHOULD BE QUIET SAVE A QUICK INCREASE IN
CLOUDS FROM THE SW AS SOME MEAGER WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN AHEAD OF
THE WELL-ADVERTISED ARCTIC FRONT. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL PROBABLY
BREAK OUT/SLIDE IN DURING THE AFTN. TEMPS WILL TRY TO GET INTO THE
20S ALL OVER BUT THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER IN THE NW WILL LIKELY
KEEP THEM U20.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS LIKELY WITH ARCTIC FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.
POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN US INTO NEXT WEEK. EMERGENCE OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW CREATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION MON-WED BUT WITH A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE. A PATTERN SHIFT TO PACIFIC ZONAL-TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH RISING/ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS IS FCST BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FAVORS A RETURN TO MILDER WEATHER.
LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON SUNDAY...AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE
FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
LIKELY WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ. VALLEY
TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA. WIND
CHILL HEADLINES ARE A GOOD BET AND PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE MADE NOW
TO PROTECT/PREPARE FOR THE UPCOMING COLD SNAP.
A MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD CONCERNING A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL EC
REMAINS MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS IN DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE AND HAS TRENDED EVEN FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH IS 10/12Z
RUN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW BUT THE SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC SNOW WILL RESULT IN MAINLY IFR VSBYS AT
KBFD/KJST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THESE OCNDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE BEGINNING THIS EVENING WHEN THE MEAN LLVL WINDS BACKS FROM
THE NW...TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY
JUST TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND OVER THE SUSQ
VALLEY AIRFIELDS...MAINLY VFR AT 17Z...WILL LIKELY DROP TO
FREQUENT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS...WITH EVEN SOME VERY BRIEF IFR IN
THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS.
A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING WITHIN DEEPENING BOUNDARY
ALLOWS WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO GROUND LEVEL.
ARRIVAL OF SFC RIDGE SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
DIMINISHING WIND TO CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...PM SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS LIKELY...ESP W MTNS.
SAT...WINDY. SHSN/REDUCED VIS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AM.
SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
MON...PM SNOW POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ010-017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...ROSS/LAMBERT