Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 02/10/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
947 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST PASSES WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFTS
SLOWLY NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED WITH THIS UPDATE.
THE NEW 00Z NAM CONTINUES THE TREND OF VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALL HIGH RES
GUIDANCE...INCLUDE THE HIRES NAM...HRRR...EXPERIMENTAL
HRRR...AND RAP ARE ONLY INDICATING SOME LIGHT SNOW THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE SREF INDICATE A
MEAN SNOWFALL BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA.
LATEST RADAR AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ALSO SUPPORT THE
CANCELLATION OF THE ADVISORY. RADAR RETURNS HAVE GENERALLY
WEAKENED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS JUST SOME FLURRIES BEING
REPORTED.
HAVE LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS TO GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH INLAND TO
1 TO 2 INCHES NEAR THE COAST...ALTHOUGH IT COULD END UP BEING
CLOSER TO AN INCH THERE. THE LATEST SNOWFALL FORECAST MAY STILL BE
ON THE HIGH SIDE WITH THE POSSIBILITY MUCH OF THE AREA ONLY A
RECEIVES COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH.
THE LOCAL AREA IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...ONE ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND ONE ABOUT 175 MILES
SOUTH OF THE LONG ISLAND. A MESO HIGH IS LOCATED OVER NEW
ENGLAND...WHICH IS HELPING TO PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE AND PREVENT ANY
SIGNIFICANT LIFT FOR GOOD SNOW GROWTH. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
RELATIVE MINIMUM IN VORTICITY ADVECTION AS A STRONG PIECE OF
ENERGY MOVES OFFSHORE AT H5...AND ANOTHER APPROACHES FROM THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. THINKING IS THIS H5 SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING AND THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT COULD HELP TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS IT
NEARS THE AREA.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S INLAND TO THE MID AND
UPPER 20S NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRES CONTINUES TO DEPART ON WEDNESDAY...AND ANY LIGHT SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MORNING. DRY CONDS
EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL ONLY CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL STAY SOUTH OF
THE REGION.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY COULD REACH 40 IN MOST AREAS. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROF REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THIS PERIOD
WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS PLUNGING
SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC AND INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS WEEKEND. IN
FACT...HEIGHT AND TEMP FIELD ANOMALIES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 3-5 SD
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WITH 85H TEMPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT
-25 TO -30 DEG C. THIS WILL EQUATE TO DAYTIME HIGHS ON SAT
STRUGGLING TO GET TO 20 AND NOT OUT OF THE TEENS ON SUN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SUN MORNING WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO WITH WIND
CHILLS MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA...-15 TO -24 DEG F.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AT THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD
WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRI PASSES
THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON AND
IN FACT MANY YEARS FOR SOME LOCATIONS. A STRONG NW FLOW WILL BE
PRESENT ON THU BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND AGAIN SAT AND SUN
BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. IN FACT...WINDS ON THESE DAYS WILL
LIKELY GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THUS...THIS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILLS SAT INTO SUN.
AS FOR ANY PCPN...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING OF A SNOW SQUALL ASSOC WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
THEREAFTER...A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES MON INTO TUE WITH
SIGNIFICANT TIMING ISSUES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS. AIRMASS
MODERATES SIGNIFICANTLY MON INTO TUE WITH HIGH IN 30S MON AND INTO
THE 40S ON TUE. THIS WOULD LIKELY BE A SNOW TO RAIN EVENT...BUT
THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW. STEADIER SNOW ARRIVES AROUND
05Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT AT TIMES CONDITIONS
BECOME BRIEFLY IFR IN MODERATE SNOW...MAINLY AFTER 09Z. WITH THE
TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING...CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK
TO VFR.
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
WINDS E AROUND 5 KT TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING AROUND MIDDAY.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.WED NIGHT...VFR. W GUSTS 20-25KT.
.THU...SLIGHT CHC -SHSN...OTHERWISE VFR. WNW GUSTS 25-30KT.
.FRI...VFR.
.SAT-SUN...VFR. NW GUSTS 20-30KT.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECAST ON THE WATERS REMAINS ON TRACK.
SCA CONDS PERSIST ON THE OCEAN WATERS...MAINLY FOR HIGH SEAS
TONIGHT. THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON WEDNESDAY...AND WIND GUSTS
OF 25-30 KT WILL DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS LATE IN THE MORNING. WILL
HOIST SCA FOR THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. FOR THE OCEAN...GALES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL GO
AHEAD AND ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
GALE CONDITIONS MAY LINGER ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO THU WITH A
STRONG NW GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WITH
SEAS POSSIBLY LINGERING AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NEAR GALE
FORCE WINDS RETURN SAT INTO SUN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE FRI NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THU THROUGH SAT WIT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES MON INTO TUE WITH THE
CHANCE OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENT. THERE IS STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND PTYPE AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A GRADUALLY DOWNWARD TREND IN SURGE AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS FOR NY
HARBOR...COASTAL NE NJ AND WESTERN LI SOUND WITH THIS EVENINGS HIGH
TIDE CYCLE...AND LOCALLY MODERATE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF
LONG ISLAND. SURGE LOWERS FURTHER FOR WEDNESDAY MORNINGS HIGH TIDE
CYCLE...WITH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCALES
OF THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS...NY HARBOR...NE NJ...AND WESTERN LI SOUND.
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHTS HIGH
TIDE...WITH ANY BRIEF LOCALIZED MINOR IMPACTS LIKELY BEING RELEGATED
TO THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LI.
SURF WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER SO BEACH IMPACTS ARE NO LONGER
EXPECTED.
&&
.CLIMATE...
WITH THE EXTREMELY COLD AIRMASS FORECAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...RECORD MINIMUMS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS MAY BE REACHED.
HERE ARE THE RECORDS:
STATION.........RECORD MINIMUM.............RECORD LOW MAXIMUM
FOR 2/14 FOR 2/14
NYC.................2 (1916)....................17 (1979)....
LGA.................1 (1979)....................15 (1979)....
JFK.................4 (1979)....................17 (1979)....
ISP.................7 (2015)....................26 (1987)....
EWR.................0 (1979)....................15 (1979)....
BDR.................3 (2015*)...................18 (1979)....
*IN 1979 AS WELL
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
CTZ009.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ071-078-
177.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
NYZ071-078-177.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ074-
075-080-178-179.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR
NYZ074-075-080-178-179.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ081.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ006-
106-108.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR
NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/DW
NEAR TERM...MPS/DS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MPS/DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
927 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND BRING HEAVY SNOW...STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING TO EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVE PAST NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MAINTAINING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY DRY AIR AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9 AM UPDATE...
AT 12Z THE HRRR AND RAP13 VERIFYING BEST REGARDING LEADING EDGE OF
SNOW SHIELD AND EMBEDDED HEAVY SNOW BAND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.
VSBYS ALREADY DOWN TO 1/4 MILE AT MARSHFIELD/PYM/TAN/PVD SOUTHWARD
TO THE COAST INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. STORM TOTAL QPF
FROM THESE TWO MODELS BRING BACK EDGE OF 0.50 QPF INTO CENTRAL CT
EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE WORCESTER HILLS AND NORTHEAST MA
INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. THUS SUPPORTING CURRENT
HEADLINES. HOWEVER WE ARE CONCERED REGARDING VERY DRY ARCTIC
AIRMASS BLEEDING SOUTHWARD ON BACKSIDE OF COASTAL FRONT INTO
NORTHERN MA. DEW PT DOWN TO -6F AT ORE! THIS MAY FURTHER CUT DOWN
THE SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE CT RVR VALLY INTO HARTFORD. HOWEVER
BEFORE CHANGING ANY HEADLINES WANT TO FULLY REVIEW THE 12Z NAM.
COASTAL FRONT IN THE PROCESS OF COMING THRU GREATER BOSTON AREA
WITH WIND SHIFT FROM NE TO N ALONG WITH TEMP DROP.
WHILE THE SNOW IS GRABBING ALL THE HEADLINES THE BIGGEST IMPACT
WITH THIS STORM WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE
WIND GUSTS OVER COASTAL PLYMOUTH/CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. ALREADY
G46 KT AT NANTUCKET WITH WINDS PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
***MAJOR WINTER STORM TO AFFECT EASTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH HEAVY
SNOW AND STRONG WINDS***
***GREATEST CONCERN CONTINUES FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST MA ONTO THE
CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE BLIZZARD WARNINGS ARE POSTED FOR WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/POWER OUTAGES WITH 45 TO
65 MPH GUSTS***
1) OVERVIEW...
IMPRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SPINNING EAST OF NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH LIGHTNING SHOWING UP NEAR THE STORM/S CENTER. THE
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING NEAR 975
MB AS IT PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
ITS UNUSUAL FOR OUR AREA TO SEE HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH A STORM TRACKING
THIS FAR SOUTHEAST...THIS SYSTEM HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH A
POTENT EAST NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET. THERE IS ALSO A 1030 MB HIGH
OVER EASTERN CANADA...WHICH WILL GENERATE POWERFUL/DAMAGING WINDS
ALONG THE COAST. WE WILL BREAK IT DOWN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
PARAGRAPHS ON OUR EXPECTATIONS AND UNCERTAINTY.
2) TIMING AND PTYPE...
THE LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM WILL QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS. SNOW
SHOULD REACH A TAUNTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM...THEN
A BOSTON...TO HARTFORD...TO WORCESTER LINE BETWEEN BY 7 OR 8
AM...AND FINALLY INTO OUR DISTANT INTERIOR ZONES OF WESTERN MA BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. PTYPE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW OTHER THAN PERHAPS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS....WHICH
SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW BY 6 OR 7 AM. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL
FROM THIS MORNING INTO MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD
SEE SNOW DIMINISH IN INTENSITY BY EARLY EVENING...EXCEPT FOR
LOCALIZED AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN MA COAST.
3) QPF AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...
AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AND ESPECIALLY HOW FAR NORTHWEST THE HEAVIEST SNOW
REACHES ACROSS OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE MAIN ISSUE IS ALTHOUGH
THIS STORM IS QUITE POWERFUL...ITS PASSING SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK...WHICH IS FURTHER SOUTHEAST THAN MOST OF OUR MAJOR WINTER
STORMS. IN THIS CASE THOUGH...ITS SUCH A LARGE STORM WITH A POTENT
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET AT 925 MB INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SO
THAT IS ALLOWING HEAVIER SNOW TO SPREAD FURTHER NORTHWEST. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE STRONG FORCING IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER IN THE
ATMOSPHERE THAN USUAL AND MORE SUBJECT TO MESOSCALE
FEATURES/NUANCES. IN THIS CASE...THOSE WILL BE OCEAN
EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT ALONG WITH INTERACTIONS NEAR THE COASTAL FRONT.
ALSO...EXPECT SOME SUBTLE UPSLOPE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WORCESTER HILLS.
THE MAIN IDEA HERE IS THAT GIVEN THE STORM PASSING WELL SOUTHEAST OF
OUR REGION...MESOSCALE PROCESSES WILL PLAY A GREATER ROLE THAN A
TYPICAL NOREASTER. THIS MAKES THE SNOWFALL FORECAST QUITE DIFFICULT
AS EXACT AMOUNTS MAY VARY CONSIDERABLY OVER SMALL DISTANCES.
OVERALL...FEEL THAT 8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IS QUITE REASONABLE FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MA/CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. LOCALIZED 12+ INCH
AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PLYMOUTH
COUNTY AND ONTO THE UPPER CAPE...WHERE COASTAL FRONT/OCEAN
ENHANCEMENT LINEUP. FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR FEEL 5 TO 10 INCHES IS REASONABLE. WE ALSO OPTED TO
EXPAND WINTER STORM WARNING/S INTO NORTHERN WORCESTER/NORTHWEST
MIDDLESEX COUNTY AS MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME HIGHER
QPF...LIKELY A RESULT OF SUBTLE UPSLOPE FLOW. FINALLY...WE ALSO
DID EXPAND WARNING/S INTO THE REST OF NORTHERN CT AS MODELS ARE
SHOWING SOME DECENT OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...SO A GENERAL
4 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED IN THIS REGION. ACROSS THE REST OF WESTERN
MA WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY FOR A GENERAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.
4) BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/WIND DAMAGE AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...
THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS STORM WILL NOT BE SPECIFIC SNOW
AMOUNTS...BUT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND ONTO
THE CAPE/ISLANDS. POWERFUL LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN VERY STRONG
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 65 MPH ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES ALONG WITH WIND
DAMAGE/SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT INITIALLY
THE SNOW WILL BE WET...WHICH WILL ALSO ADD TO THE RISK OF TREE
DAMAGE/POWER OUTAGES. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL MAKE THIS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM AND TRAVEL IS NOT
RECOMMENDED IN THIS REGION.
WHILE WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG FURTHER NORTHWEST ALONG
THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR...STILL EXPECTING A PERIOD OF
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL PROMOTE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG WITH VERY POOR
VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL FALL INTO THE 20S ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE BY AFTERNOON...AS STRONG
NNE WINDS PUSH MUCH COLDER AIR INTO MUCH OF THE REGION. MEANWHILE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND ONTO THE CAPE/ISLANDS...TEMPS
WILL HOLD INTO THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S AS COASTAL FRONT WILL
BE HELD UP IN THIS REGION FOR A TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL COME TO AN END BY EARLY EVENING AS STORM PULLS
AWAY AND LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. HOWEVER...EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MOIST NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW JUST OFF THE DECK. WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW WILL
BE LIGHT TONIGHT...VERY LOCALIZED BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST AS A RESULT OF OCEAN
ENHANCEMENT/LAND SEA INTERFACE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS
SHOW A SIMILAR SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
MIDWEEK...THE LAST MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE
ORIGINITATED OVER ARCTIC CANADA AND IT IS NO SURPRISE THAT TEMPS
OVER US COOL SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER IT PASSES.
CLOSED LOW FROM BAFFIN ISLAND THEN SLIPS SOUTH AND MAINTAINS THE
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST USA. THE ECMWF
FORMS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION THAT DRAWS THIS CLOSED LOW INTO THE
NORTHEAST USA SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS AND GGEM HOLD IT OVER QUEBEC.
THE CONSEQUENCE IS THAT THE ECMWF FORMS A SIGNIFICANT WEEKEND
SNOWSTORM WHILE THE OTHERS FORM A WEAK WAVE WELL OFFSHORE.
THE FORECAST FAVORS A MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN FAVORS A
CONSENSUS WITHOUT THE ECMWF OVER NEXT WEEKEND.
THE DAILIES...
TUESDAY...POSITION OF UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO FAVOR FORMATION OF
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SAID COASTAL LOW
THEN MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THIS WOULD
MAINTAIN AT LEAST WEAK LIFT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FGEN FIELDS
ARE MARGINAL BUT FAVOR SOUTH COASTAL SECTIONS AND ESPECIALLY CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS. NOT CONFIDENT ON SNOW SHOWERS VS A STRATIFORM
SNOW. WE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST
POPS IN THE MIDDAY/AFTERNOON. MOISTURE FIELDS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW INCHES...TECHNICALLY A MODERATE SNOW ACCUM...ACROSS
RI/SOUTHEAST MASS.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH AND THE
UPPER COLD POOL APPROACHES. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE IN THIS GROUP MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THIS
SUGGESTS A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. ONLY
LIMITED MIXING WEDNESDAY...TO 950 MB...WITH TEMPS SUPPORTING MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE 30S. DEEPER MIXING THURSDAY AS COLD ADVECTION STARTS.
MIXING REACHES ABOVE 900 MB THURSDAY WITH TEMPS SUPPORTING UPPER 20S-
LOWER 30S. WINDS IN THE THURSDAY MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST AT 25-30
MPH...SHOULD BE AVAILABLE AS NORTHWEST GUSTS.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY-SUNDAY... ARCTIC AIR POURS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND IS
WITH US THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MIXING WILL BRING 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE
SURFACE IN GUSTS. TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL FALL INTO THE -20S AND
SUGGEST MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 20S FRIDAY AND 15-25 SAT-SUN. GIVEN THE
SOURCE REGION OF THE AIRMASS...MODEL SUGGESTIONS OF MIN TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE NUMBERS EITHER SIDE OF ZERO LOOK REASONABLE. SUCH COLD AIR
ALOFT AND WINDS OVER 10 KT WILL GENERATE OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD KEEP THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE.
AS NOTED ABOVE...WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL SUITES TO SEE
IF THE 00Z ECMWF WEEKEND LOW IS A BLIP OR AN ACTUAL PROBLEM.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. SNOW OVERSPREADS THE I-95
CORRIDOR 13-14Z AND REACHES BACK INTO WESTERN MA BY 15Z OR 16Z.
THE SNOW WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WHERE 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHER LOCALIZED BANDS OF
HEAVY SNOW ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WORCESTER HILLS.
AS FOR CIGS/VSBYS...WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA/CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS AS VSBYS DROP TO ONE QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES. NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS...WITH THE STRONGEST OF THOSE WINDS AT NANTUCKET.
FURTHER NORTHWEST...A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40
KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...SO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALSO EXPECTED IN THESE
LOCATIONS.
TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WHILE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
COME TO AN END EARLY THIS EVENING...AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
PERSIST OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. STRONG NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AS STORM PULLS AWAY AND LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS.
NONETHELESS...WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 14 OR
15Z THIS MORNING. SNOW MAY FALL HEAVY AT TIMES WITH 1 TO 2 INCH
PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 40 KNOTS PERSIST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF
LIFR CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE AFTER 14 OR 15Z AS SNOW WORKS INTO
THE REGION.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH
HIGHEST CHANCE IN RI AND SOUTHEAST MASS. IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW
SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
25-30 KNOTS. OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS JUST OFF THE COAST WITH
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
***STRONG GALE TO STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 KNOTS AND SEAS
EXCEEDING 20 FEET EXPECTED ACROSS OUR EASTERN OUTER-WATERS LATER
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON***
POWERFUL 975 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK WILL COMBINED WITH A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
EASTERN CANADA. THE RESULT WILL BE STRONG NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 KNOTS...THE STRONGEST OF THOSE WINDS ACROSS OUR WATERS
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET. GALE AND STORM WARNINGS POSTED FOR ALL
WATERS WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO OVER 20 FEET ACROSS OUR
EASTERN WATERS BY AFTERNOON. HEAVY SNOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN
VISIBILITIES ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE WATERS. NONETHELESS...SEAS WILL
BE SLOW TO DIMINISH THOUGH WITH LEFT OVER SWELL AND PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST FETCH.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY BUT REMAIN 5 FEET OR HIGHER ON
THE EXPOSED WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.
WEDNESDAY...WINDS BECOME WEST LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. SEAS LINGER 5 FEET
OR HIGHER ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS EAST OF CAPE COD. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST
WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SEAS OF 5-7 FEET MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS...SUBSIDING FRIDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
***POCKETS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE SOUTH OF BOSTON
ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST***
915 AM UPDATE...
PRIOR FORECAST LOOKS TO BE RIGHT ON TARGET WITH MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING LIKELY FOR THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE FROM HULL TO
PLYMOUTH...NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORELINES OF CAPE COD...AND
NANTUCKET NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORELINES. AT THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE...PROJECTING SEAS APPROACHING 20 FEET MASS BAY AND 20 TO 25
FEET EAST OF THE OUTER CAPE AND EAST OF NANTUCKET. PRIOR SURGE
FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE. ANTICIPATE SURGE TO BE 1.7 TO 2.2 FEET
FROM BOSTON NORTH AND GENERALLY 2.1 TO 2.6 FEET ALONG EAST AND
NORTH FACING SHORELINES SOUTH OF BOSTON INCLUDING
SCITUATE...SANDWICH/DENNIS...PROVINCETOWN...CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET.
AT LEAST SOME EROSION IS EXPECTED ALL ALONG THE MA COASTLINE FROM
SALISBURY TO NANTUCKET...MOST SEVERE ALONG THE OUTER CAPE AND THE
EAST SIDE OF NANTUCKET INCLUDING SIASCONSET.
AS OF 915 PM...REPORTS OF COASTAL FLOODING HAVE STARTED TO COME
IN WITH PORTIONS OF OCEANSIDE ROAD AND CENTRAL AVENUE IN SCITUATE
AND THE BRANT ROCK AREA OF MARSHFIELD ALREADY IMPACTED. FLOODING
SHOULD ALREADY BE STARTING TO OCCUR ALONG PORTIONS OF NANTUCKET
HARBOR INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO EASY STREET.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LOOKS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE MA
COASTLINE FOR THE LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE DUE TO RESIDUAL SURGE AND
WAVE ACTION. THE WIND WILL HAVE BACKED TO A MORE N DIRECTION AND
SPEEDS CONSIDERABLY LESS BY THE LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE...WHICH IS
A HALF TO A LITTLE LESS THAN A FOOT LOWER ASTRONOMICALLY ALONG
MOST OF THE EASTERN MA COASTLINE. SEAS WILL PROBABLY STILL BE
RUNNING 14 TO 18 FEET A LITTLE OFFSHORE...PERHAPS AROUND 20 FEET
STILL EAST OF NANTUCKET. THUS...AT LEAST SOME EROSION WILL LIKELY
BE WITNESSED AGAIN TONIGHT AROUND THE HIGH TIDE. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN COASTLINE
FOR THE LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE.
EARLY AM DISCUSSION IS STILL RELEVANT AND FOLLOWS...
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES SOUTH OF BOSTON THRU COASTAL
PLYMOUTH COUNTY TO CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET GIVEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF
STRONG WIND FIELD ACROSS THIS REGION. EXPECTING AREAS OF MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING IN THIS AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO MIDDAY
HIGH TIDE. LOW LEVEL WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG FROM BOSTON
NORTHWARD. THUS LESS STORM SURGE AND COASTAL FLOODING WILL LIKELY BE
MAINLY IN THE MINOR CATEGORY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT POCKETS OF LOW-
END MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. HIGH TIDE CYCLE OF GREATEST CONCERN
IS THE LATE THIS MORNING INTO MIDDAY...BASICALLY 9 AM TO 1 PM IS THE
TIMELINE.
EXPECTING A STORM SURGE OF BETWEEN 2.5 AND 3 FT ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA AND NEAR 2 FT FROM BOSTON NORTHWARD TO THE MA/NH BORDER. ETSS
WAS HIGHER THAN THE ESTOFS AND SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN NE WINDS WILL
GUSTS 45 TO 65 MPH. IN ADDITION LARGE WAVES IN EXCESS OF 20 FT JUST
OFFSHORE...WILL PROMOTE WAVE RUNUP PUSHING WAVES AND OVER SEAWALLS
AND OTHER STRUCTURES. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN POTENTIAL MODERATE
BEACH EROSION. AGAIN GREATEST IMPACTS FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM ALONG
PLYMOUTH COAST TO CAPE COD BAY TO NANTUCKET...WITH LESS IMPACTS
BOSTON NORTHWARD TO MA/NH BORDER.
WE MAY HAVE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE LATE EVENING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST. HOWEVER ASTRO TIDE IS
LOWER...LESS WINDS AND PRES RISES OVERSPREADING THE AREA...BUT A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ018-019-
021>024.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ019-
022-024.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ004>007-
012>017-020-026.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ007-015-016-023.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ002-003-
008>011.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ008.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-250-
254>256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-235-237.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ236.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/FRANK
NEAR TERM...WTB/FRANK/NOCERA
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/FRANK
MARINE...WTB/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK/THOMPSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
906 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND BRING HEAVY SNOW...STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING TO EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVE PAST NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MAINTAINING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY DRY AIR AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9 AM UPDATE...
AT 12Z THE HRRR AND RAP13 VERIFYING BEST REGARDING LEADING EDGE OF
SNOW SHIELD AND EMBEDDED HEAVY SNOW BAND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.
VSBYS ALREADY DOWN TO 1/4 MILE AT MARSHFIELD/PYM/TAN/PVD SOUTHWARD
TO THE COAST INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. STORM TOTAL QPF
FROM THESE TWO MODELS BRING BACK EDGE OF 0.50 QPF INTO CENTRAL CT
EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE WORCESTER HILLS AND NORTHEAST MA
INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. THUS SUPPORTING CURRENT
HEADLINES. HOWEVER WE ARE CONCERED REGARDING VERY DRY ARCTIC
AIRMASS BLEEDING SOUTHWARD ON BACKSIDE OF COASTAL FRONT INTO
NORTHERN MA. DEW PT DOWN TO -6F AT ORE! THIS MAY FURTHER CUT DOWN
THE SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE CT RVR VALLY INTO HARTFORD. HOWEVER
BEFORE CHANGING ANY HEADLINES WANT TO FULLY REVIEW THE 12Z NAM.
COASTAL FRONT IN THE PROCESS OF COMING THRU GREATER BOSTON AREA
WITH WIND SHIFT FROM NE TO N ALONG WITH TEMP DROP.
WHILE THE SNOW IS GRABBING ALL THE HEADLINES THE BIGGEST IMPACT
WITH THIS STORM WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE
WIND GUSTS OVER COASTAL PLYMOUTH/CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. ALREADY
G46 KT AT NANTUCKET WITH WINDS PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
***MAJOR WINTER STORM TO AFFECT EASTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH HEAVY
SNOW AND STRONG WINDS***
***GREATEST CONCERN CONTINUES FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST MA ONTO THE
CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE BLIZZARD WARNINGS ARE POSTED FOR WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/POWER OUTAGES WITH 45 TO
65 MPH GUSTS***
1) OVERVIEW...
IMPRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SPINNING EAST OF NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH LIGHTNING SHOWING UP NEAR THE STORM/S CENTER. THE
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING NEAR 975
MB AS IT PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
ITS UNUSUAL FOR OUR AREA TO SEE HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH A STORM TRACKING
THIS FAR SOUTHEAST...THIS SYSTEM HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH A
POTENT EAST NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET. THERE IS ALSO A 1030 MB HIGH
OVER EASTERN CANADA...WHICH WILL GENERATE POWERFUL/DAMAGING WINDS
ALONG THE COAST. WE WILL BREAK IT DOWN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
PARAGRAPHS ON OUR EXPECTATIONS AND UNCERTAINTY.
2) TIMING AND PTYPE...
THE LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM WILL QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS. SNOW
SHOULD REACH A TAUNTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM...THEN
A BOSTON...TO HARTFORD...TO WORCESTER LINE BETWEEN BY 7 OR 8
AM...AND FINALLY INTO OUR DISTANT INTERIOR ZONES OF WESTERN MA BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. PTYPE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW OTHER THAN PERHAPS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS....WHICH
SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW BY 6 OR 7 AM. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL
FROM THIS MORNING INTO MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD
SEE SNOW DIMINISH IN INTENSITY BY EARLY EVENING...EXCEPT FOR
LOCALIZED AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN MA COAST.
3) QPF AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...
AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AND ESPECIALLY HOW FAR NORTHWEST THE HEAVIEST SNOW
REACHES ACROSS OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE MAIN ISSUE IS ALTHOUGH
THIS STORM IS QUITE POWERFUL...ITS PASSING SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK...WHICH IS FURTHER SOUTHEAST THAN MOST OF OUR MAJOR WINTER
STORMS. IN THIS CASE THOUGH...ITS SUCH A LARGE STORM WITH A POTENT
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET AT 925 MB INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SO
THAT IS ALLOWING HEAVIER SNOW TO SPREAD FURTHER NORTHWEST. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE STRONG FORCING IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER IN THE
ATMOSPHERE THAN USUAL AND MORE SUBJECT TO MESOSCALE
FEATURES/NUANCES. IN THIS CASE...THOSE WILL BE OCEAN
EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT ALONG WITH INTERACTIONS NEAR THE COASTAL FRONT.
ALSO...EXPECT SOME SUBTLE UPSLOPE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WORCESTER HILLS.
THE MAIN IDEA HERE IS THAT GIVEN THE STORM PASSING WELL SOUTHEAST OF
OUR REGION...MESOSCALE PROCESSES WILL PLAY A GREATER ROLE THAN A
TYPICAL NOREASTER. THIS MAKES THE SNOWFALL FORECAST QUITE DIFFICULT
AS EXACT AMOUNTS MAY VARY CONSIDERABLY OVER SMALL DISTANCES.
OVERALL...FEEL THAT 8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IS QUITE REASONABLE FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MA/CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. LOCALIZED 12+ INCH
AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PLYMOUTH
COUNTY AND ONTO THE UPPER CAPE...WHERE COASTAL FRONT/OCEAN
ENHANCEMENT LINEUP. FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR FEEL 5 TO 10 INCHES IS REASONABLE. WE ALSO OPTED TO
EXPAND WINTER STORM WARNING/S INTO NORTHERN WORCESTER/NORTHWEST
MIDDLESEX COUNTY AS MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME HIGHER
QPF...LIKELY A RESULT OF SUBTLE UPSLOPE FLOW. FINALLY...WE ALSO
DID EXPAND WARNING/S INTO THE REST OF NORTHERN CT AS MODELS ARE
SHOWING SOME DECENT OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...SO A GENERAL
4 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED IN THIS REGION. ACROSS THE REST OF WESTERN
MA WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY FOR A GENERAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.
4) BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/WIND DAMAGE AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...
THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS STORM WILL NOT BE SPECIFIC SNOW
AMOUNTS...BUT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND ONTO
THE CAPE/ISLANDS. POWERFUL LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN VERY STRONG
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 65 MPH ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES ALONG WITH WIND
DAMAGE/SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT INITIALLY
THE SNOW WILL BE WET...WHICH WILL ALSO ADD TO THE RISK OF TREE
DAMAGE/POWER OUTAGES. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL MAKE THIS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM AND TRAVEL IS NOT
RECOMMENDED IN THIS REGION.
WHILE WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG FURTHER NORTHWEST ALONG
THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR...STILL EXPECTING A PERIOD OF
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL PROMOTE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG WITH VERY POOR
VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL FALL INTO THE 20S ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE BY AFTERNOON...AS STRONG
NNE WINDS PUSH MUCH COLDER AIR INTO MUCH OF THE REGION. MEANWHILE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND ONTO THE CAPE/ISLANDS...TEMPS
WILL HOLD INTO THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S AS COASTAL FRONT WILL
BE HELD UP IN THIS REGION FOR A TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL COME TO AN END BY EARLY EVENING AS STORM PULLS
AWAY AND LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. HOWEVER...EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MOIST NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW JUST OFF THE DECK. WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW WILL
BE LIGHT TONIGHT...VERY LOCALIZED BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST AS A RESULT OF OCEAN
ENHANCEMENT/LAND SEA INTERFACE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS
SHOW A SIMILAR SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
MIDWEEK...THE LAST MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE
ORIGINITATED OVER ARCTIC CANADA AND IT IS NO SURPRISE THAT TEMPS
OVER US COOL SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER IT PASSES.
CLOSED LOW FROM BAFFIN ISLAND THEN SLIPS SOUTH AND MAINTAINS THE
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST USA. THE ECMWF
FORMS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION THAT DRAWS THIS CLOSED LOW INTO THE
NORTHEAST USA SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS AND GGEM HOLD IT OVER QUEBEC.
THE CONSEQUENCE IS THAT THE ECMWF FORMS A SIGNIFICANT WEEKEND
SNOWSTORM WHILE THE OTHERS FORM A WEAK WAVE WELL OFFSHORE.
THE FORECAST FAVORS A MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN FAVORS A
CONSENSUS WITHOUT THE ECMWF OVER NEXT WEEKEND.
THE DAILIES...
TUESDAY...POSITION OF UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO FAVOR FORMATION OF
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SAID COASTAL LOW
THEN MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THIS WOULD
MAINTAIN AT LEAST WEAK LIFT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FGEN FIELDS
ARE MARGINAL BUT FAVOR SOUTH COASTAL SECTIONS AND ESPECIALLY CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS. NOT CONFIDENT ON SNOW SHOWERS VS A STRATIFORM
SNOW. WE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST
POPS IN THE MIDDAY/AFTERNOON. MOISTURE FIELDS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW INCHES...TECHNICALLY A MODERATE SNOW ACCUM...ACROSS
RI/SOUTHEAST MASS.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH AND THE
UPPER COLD POOL APPROACHES. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE IN THIS GROUP MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THIS
SUGGESTS A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. ONLY
LIMITED MIXING WEDNESDAY...TO 950 MB...WITH TEMPS SUPPORTING MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE 30S. DEEPER MIXING THURSDAY AS COLD ADVECTION STARTS.
MIXING REACHES ABOVE 900 MB THURSDAY WITH TEMPS SUPPORTING UPPER 20S-
LOWER 30S. WINDS IN THE THURSDAY MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST AT 25-30
MPH...SHOULD BE AVAILABLE AS NORTHWEST GUSTS.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY-SUNDAY... ARCTIC AIR POURS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND IS
WITH US THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MIXING WILL BRING 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE
SURFACE IN GUSTS. TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL FALL INTO THE -20S AND
SUGGEST MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 20S FRIDAY AND 15-25 SAT-SUN. GIVEN THE
SOURCE REGION OF THE AIRMASS...MODEL SUGGESTIONS OF MIN TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE NUMBERS EITHER SIDE OF ZERO LOOK REASONABLE. SUCH COLD AIR
ALOFT AND WINDS OVER 10 KT WILL GENERATE OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD KEEP THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE.
AS NOTED ABOVE...WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL SUITES TO SEE
IF THE 00Z ECMWF WEEKEND LOW IS A BLIP OR AN ACTUAL PROBLEM.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. SNOW OVERSPREADS THE I-95
CORRIDOR 13-14Z AND REACHES BACK INTO WESTERN MA BY 15Z OR 16Z.
THE SNOW WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WHERE 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHER LOCALIZED BANDS OF
HEAVY SNOW ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WORCESTER HILLS.
AS FOR CIGS/VSBYS...WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA/CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS AS VSBYS DROP TO ONE QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES. NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS...WITH THE STRONGEST OF THOSE WINDS AT NANTUCKET.
FURTHER NORTHWEST...A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40
KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...SO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALSO EXPECTED IN THESE
LOCATIONS.
TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WHILE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
COME TO AN END EARLY THIS EVENING...AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
PERSIST OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. STRONG NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AS STORM PULLS AWAY AND LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS.
NONETHELESS...WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 14 OR
15Z THIS MORNING. SNOW MAY FALL HEAVY AT TIMES WITH 1 TO 2 INCH
PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 40 KNOTS PERSIST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF
LIFR CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE AFTER 14 OR 15Z AS SNOW WORKS INTO
THE REGION.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH
HIGHEST CHANCE IN RI AND SOUTHEAST MASS. IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW
SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
25-30 KNOTS. OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS JUST OFF THE COAST WITH
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
***STRONG GALE TO STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 KNOTS AND SEAS
EXCEEDING 20 FEET EXPECTED ACROSS OUR EASTERN OUTER-WATERS LATER
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON***
POWERFUL 975 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK WILL COMBINED WITH A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
EASTERN CANADA. THE RESULT WILL BE STRONG NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 KNOTS...THE STRONGEST OF THOSE WINDS ACROSS OUR WATERS
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET. GALE AND STORM WARNINGS POSTED FOR ALL
WATERS WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO OVER 20 FEET ACROSS OUR
EASTERN WATERS BY AFTERNOON. HEAVY SNOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN
VISIBILITIES ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE WATERS. NONETHELESS...SEAS WILL
BE SLOW TO DIMINISH THOUGH WITH LEFT OVER SWELL AND PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST FETCH.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY BUT REMAIN 5 FEET OR HIGHER ON
THE EXPOSED WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.
WEDNESDAY...WINDS BECOME WEST LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. SEAS LINGER 5 FEET
OR HIGHER ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS EAST OF CAPE COD. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST
WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SEAS OF 5-7 FEET MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS...SUBSIDING FRIDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
***POCKETS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE SOUTH OF BOSTON
ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST***
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES SOUTH OF BOSTON THRU COASTAL
PLYMOUTH COUNTY TO CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET GIVEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF
STRONG WIND FIELD ACROSS THIS REGION. EXPECTING AREAS OF MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING IN THIS AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO MIDDAY
HIGH TIDE. LOW LEVEL WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG FROM BOSTON
NORTHWARD. THUS LESS STORM SURGE AND COASTAL FLOODING WILL LIKELY BE
MAINLY IN THE MINOR CATEGORY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT POCKETS OF LOW-
END MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. HIGH TIDE CYCLE OF GREATEST CONCERN
IS THE LATE THIS MORNING INTO MIDDAY...BASICALLY 9 AM TO 1 PM IS THE
TIMELINE.
EXPECTING A STORM SURGE OF BETWEEN 2.5 AND 3 FT ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA AND NEAR 2 FT FROM BOSTON NORTHWARD TO THE MA/NH BORDER. ETSS
WAS HIGHER THAN THE ESTOFS AND SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN NE WINDS WILL
GUSTS 45 TO 65 MPH. IN ADDITION LARGE WAVES IN EXCESS OF 20 FT JUST
OFFSHORE...WILL PROMOTE WAVE RUNUP PUSHING WAVES AND OVER SEAWALLS
AND OTHER STRUCTURES. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN POTENTIAL MODERATE
BEACH EROSION. AGAIN GREATEST IMPACTS FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM ALONG
PLYMOUTH COAST TO CAPE COD BAY TO NANTUCKET...WITH LESS IMPACTS
BOSTON NORTHWARD TO MA/NH BORDER.
WE MAY HAVE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE LATE EVENING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST. HOWEVER ASTRO TIDE IS
LOWER...LESS WINDS AND PRES RISES OVERSPREADING THE AREA...BUT A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ018-019-
021>024.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ019-
022-024.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ004>007-
012>017-020-026.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ007-015-016-023.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ002-003-
008>011.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ008.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-250-
254>256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-235-237.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ236.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/FRANK
NEAR TERM...WTB/FRANK/NOCERA
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/FRANK
MARINE...WTB/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
436 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM PASSING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 436 AM EST...A POWERFUL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA COAST. THIS LOW PRESSURE
AREA...AROUND 980 MB...IS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING
AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST...WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AN
EXPANSIVE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM IS SEEN ON IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THE CLOUDS EXTEND ALL THE WAY UP INTO
EASTERN UPSTATE NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT...SKIES
ARE COMPLETELY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH A VEIL OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE.
REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS THE BACKEDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD OF
THIS SYSTEM JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND LONG
ISLAND. THIS BAND OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TOWARDS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE LATEST 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND 06Z HRRR GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST
THIS BAND OF PRECIP WILL EXPAND WESTWARD TOWARDS NW CT BY THE MID
MORNING HOURS...AS SFC LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HEAD NORTHEAST.
EVENTUALLY...LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SRN VT BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS WELL. WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS/LOW
20S...THIS PRECIP MAY INITIALLY DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.
HOWEVER...WE EXPECT THE COLUMN TO SATURATE QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW
LIGHT SNOW TO OCCUR. BY LATE IN THE DAY...3KM HRRR GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT 2-3 INCHES WILL HAVE ACCUMULATED IN THE NW CT BY THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
LITCHFIELD COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SNOWFALL FOR TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE....AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL BE SLOWING DOWN AS IT
CLOSES OFF ALOFT AND STARTS TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT. AS A
RESULT...THIS FEATURE WILL HELP DIRECT SOME OF THE COASTAL
MOISTURE BACK TOWARDS THE CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...AND LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE BY THE EVENING HOURS IN THESE LOCATIONS.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE HELD DOWN DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP IN
PLACE. MAX TEMPS ONLY LOOK TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
ACROSS THE REGION. N-NE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES OVER WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND DUE TO STRONG STORM OFFSHORE...WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KTS AT TIMES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEPARTS WELL OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EXPANDING EASTWARD...THE MODELS SEEMS TO FOCUS THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAKING FOR A STORM TOTAL /TODAY INTO TONIGHT/ OF A
COATING TO TWO INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE 2 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL LOOK TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE NIGHT...AS
MOISTURE WILL BECOME LIMITED DUE TO THE DEPARTING COASTAL WAVE. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 20S FOR MOST SPOTS...EXCEPT SOME TEENS OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN.
ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED...SO ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION LOOKS JUST A COATING FOR MOST AREAS. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MAY HELP SPAWN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRY TO DEVELOP
BY TUESDAY EVENING OFF THE COAST...BUT THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO BE
TOO FAR SOUTH/EAST TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON OUR AREA. THIS
FEATURE LOOKS TO BRING THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN NJ...AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF NY/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE HEADING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER WILL JUST BE CLOUDY SKIES WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT FLURRIES/PASSING SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ON TUESDAY...AND 20S
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SIMILAR ON WEDNESDAY INTO WED
NIGHT...AS THE BROAD AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER THE AREA. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW STILL IN
PLACE...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT WITHOUT ANY STRONG FORCING AROUND AND LIMITED
MOISTURE...ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE JUST A COATING TO AN INCH FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. DAYTIME TEMPS ON WED WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S...BUT COLDER TEMPS MOVING IN ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVERHEAD SHOULD ALLOW MINS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TO LOW
20S FOR WED NIGHT. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MAY START TO SET UP OFF LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE WED NIGHT
AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW MAY KEEP THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WEST OF
OUR AREA ACROSS CENTRAL NY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.
A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND
OPENING THE DOOR TO VERY COLD AIR. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE GUIDANCE TO OUR FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LOW MOVES BEFORE HEADING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST OVER
THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COLDER EACH DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS
AND 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY MAY NOT GET ABOVE ZERO ACROSS
A PORTION OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH SINGLE DIGITS READINGS INTO
THE TEENS EXPECTED FOR HIGHS SATURDAY. THE COLDEST WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING AS THE HIGH APPROACHES...IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL
HEADLINES...BOTH ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE
WEEKEND...SO HAVE THE THREAT HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...05Z...HAS A COASTAL LOW CENTERED ABOUT 200
MILES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITH PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING TO
ITS NORTHEAST WELL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND CAPE COD. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO PASS ABOUT 300 SOUTHEAST OFF CAPE
COD MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME...A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORT WAVE
ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS ALL MEANS SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND PORTIONS
OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THE LATER PART OF THE TAF PERIOD...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THICKENING AND LOWER AFTER SUNRISE.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY MID/LATE MORNING AT KPSF AND DURING THE AFTERNOON
AT KALB...KGFL AND KPOU. AS THE SNOW STARTS EXPECTING MVFR WITH CONDITIONS
LOWER TO IFR DUE TO VISIBILITY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD...06Z/TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS AN
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT KPOU DURING THE EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEASTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT GENERALLY LOOK LESS THAN A THIRD OF AN
INCH. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THESE WILL AMOUNTS TO LITTLE OF HYDROLOGIC
SIGNIFICANCE.
WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING BY WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
WILL BE BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE LAST TIME WE HAD TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO WAS:
ALBANY NY:
-9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES
GLENS FALLS NY:
-15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
-2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT:
-11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA:
-4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015
THE RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 14 ARE:
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
CLIMATE...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
648 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF THE
OUTERBANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND FARTHER OUT TO
SEA TODAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT NEAR THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AFTER THIS LOW QUICKLY
MOVE OUT TO SEA EARLY TUESDAY, A WEAKER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
ORGANIZE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH LATE
FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE, A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE
IT INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF SHORE. STILL HAVEN`T SEEN PRECIP
PROPAGATE WEST FAR ENOUGH TO MOVE ON SHORE. HOWEVER, A BAND HAS
BECOME MORE DEFINED IN THE RADAR MOSAIC, AND STILL EXPECT THIS TO
MOVE ONTO THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY SHORE NEAR DAY BREAK. HRRR AND RAP
SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS WELL. SO WILL CONTINUE THE THREE COUNTY
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GENERALLY ONE TO 3 INCHES WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE SHORE.
FOR THE REST OF THE REGION, EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
DAY. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE WINDS. ALREADY WINDS AT THE SHORE ARE
GUSTING 30 TO 35 KT (35 TO 40 MPH). HOWEVER, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD BE DECREASING QUICKLY AFTER DAY BREAK AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY,
SO THE WINDS WE ARE SEEING NOW ARE LIKELY GOING TO BE THE STRONGEST
WINDS OF THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION, GENERALLY SNOW OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX WILL START TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LEADING
TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE REGION. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN
WELL WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME, SO DO NOT EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO BE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND THE MODELS HAVE
IN FACT TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER THROUGH THIS PERIOD. EVEN SO, THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION COULD SEE AS MUCH AS 4 INCHES OF SNOW IF
MESOSCALE BANDS DEVELOP EARLY ENOUGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SECONDARY COASTAL LOW THAT DEEPENS RAPIDLY OFF THE NC OUTERBANKS
MONDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOO FAR OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY TO
DIRECTLY IMPACT US. HOWEVER, WE AREN`T OUT OF THE WOODS AS MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW REORGANIZING AS IT MOVES OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST ON TUESDAY. THIS SEEMS LIKE A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO
SINCE THE INITIAL MILLER-B LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WELL OUT TO
SEA (LEAVING SOME SEPARATION BETWEEN THE TWO) AND THERE LOOKS TO
BE ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
LOW THAT WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO HEIGHT FALLS AND COASTAL
CYCLOGENESIS. IN THESE TYPES OF SETUPS, ENHANCED FRONTOGENETICAL
LIFT AND MESOSCALE BANDING IS FAVORED ON THE NWRN SIDE OF THE LOW.
THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAD COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE BANDING IN THEIR MASS/THERMAL FIELDS THAT
PRODUCES A RELATIVELY NARROW WEST-EAST ORIENTED BAND OF HEAVIER
QPF OVER THE NRN DELMARVA/SERN PA/SRN NJ. PARTIAL THICKNESSES
IMPLY ALL SNOW. HOWEVER, THE CURRENT FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S FOR THESE AREAS OF CONCERN IMPLY THE LOWER BOUNDARY
LAYER IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. THERE IS CERTAINLY A
POTENTIAL THAT SOME RAIN MIXES IN AND/OR SNOW HAS A TOUGH TIME
ACCUMULATING...BUT ONLY IF THE INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP IS LIGHT.
IF THE HEAVIER SNOW DOES MATERIALIZE, THEN DYNAMICAL COOLING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THIS ISSUE.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH WPC AND NEIGHBORING WFOS, WE DECIDED IT WAS
BEST TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR FAR SERN PA, NRN DELMARVA AND
SRN NJ. THE WHOLE AREA IN THE WATCH WILL LIKELY NOT SEE WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWFALL (AND SOME MAYBE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS) BUT THIS IS
WHERE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR 5 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL
EXISTS IN A RATHER NARROW SWATH SOMEWHERE APPROXIMATELY AS FAR
NORTH AS PHILADELPHIA AND AS FAR SOUTH AS DOVER. ANOTHER
CHALLENGE WITH THIS EVENT IS TRYING TO PINPOINT THE TIMING OF THE
HEAVIER SNOW. THE WATCH GOES STARTS LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES 28
HOURS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A LONG DURATION
EVENT BUT WE WENT WIDE IN TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY IN
WHEN THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND DEVELOPS. ONE CAMP OF MODELS INDICATE
IT WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WHILE OTHER
CLUSTER FAVORS LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
FARTHER NORTH INTO NERN PA AND NWRN NJ, WHERE THE POSSIBILITY FOR
HEAVIER SNOW IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY AT THIS POINT, LIGHT SNOW MAY
ONLY ACCUMULATE AN INCH OR TWO TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER,
WE`LL STILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE HEAVIER
SNOW BAND SHIFTING NORTHWARD. VERY FEW SCENARIOS CAN BE RULED OUT
AT THIS POINT.
THE UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY OPENS UP AND THE WAVE PASSES THRU THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A KICKER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. WE WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THIS TIME BUT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
MINOR. THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN ITS WAKE, THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. TEMPS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S NORTH AND WEST OF THE FALL
LINE.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY. A
SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
BASE OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AND ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE
POLAR AIRMASS. FOR THE MOST PART, MODELS ARE SUPPRESSING THE TRACK
OF THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND DEEPENING IT TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO BRING
THE DEEPER ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER, THE 00Z
ECMWF, WITH SUPPORT FROM SOME OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, ARE SHOWING A
DEEPER AND MORE NORTHERN SYSTEM, WHICH COULD BRING YET ANOTHER
ROUND OF AT SNOW TO OUR REGION.
A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE IT INTO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES COULD BE 15-20F BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND
AND WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES (KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KILG) AND THE
WESTERN TAF SITES (KABE AND KRDG) - MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z. AFTER THAT, AN APPROACHING TROUGH
WILL BRING LOWER CEILINGS, AND EVENTUALLY LOWER VISIBILITIES WITH
SNOW. LOWER CEILINGS COULD START TO MOVE IN BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z, BUT
DO NOT EXPECT THE SNOW TO MOVE IN UNTIL AFTER 00Z. ONCE SNOW
BEGINS TO MOVE IN, EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF SNOW EXPECTED. THE SNOW MAY
MIX WITH RAIN AT MIV AND ACY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY ESPECIALLY AT
TIMES WHEN IT IS LIGHTER. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING AND OVERALL IMPACTS AT THE AIRPORTS BUT WE CAN
SAY THAT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT A NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW
WILL DEVELOP SOMETIME DURING THE PERIOD NEAR THE ILG-PHL-ACY
CORRIDOR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR
LIFR IF THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND DEVELOPS.
WEDNESDAY...LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY, THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR. BREEZY WLY WINDS
GUSTING TO 25 KT.
THURSDAY...VFR AND BREEZY NW WINDS GUSTING AOA 30 KT. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH.
FRIDAY...CURRENTLY FORECASTING VFR BUT WE ARE WATCHING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO DEVELOP NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
BRING MORE SNOW INTO THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
&&
.MARINE...
A GALE WARNING CONTINUES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. HAVE ALREADY SEEN
SEVERAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST REPORT GALE GUSTS. EXPECT THESE
STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY BEFORE DROPPING OFF
SHARPLY. ALTHOUGH SCA CONDITIONS FOR SEAS AND WINDS MAY LINGER FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY.
ON THE DELAWARE BAY, EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNRISE. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THEY MAY LINTER FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS BEYOND SUNRISE.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HAZARDOUS
SEAS AND PERIODS OF 25 KT GUSTS. THERE COULD BE A TEMPORARY LULL IN
THE WINDS ON TUESDAY CLOSE TO WHERE THE LOW DEVELOPS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SOLID SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GALES ARE
CERTAINLY A POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY NW WINDS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
UPDATE TO ADD ATLANTIC, SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON, AND OCEAN
COUNTIES TO THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR BOTH TIDE CYCLES THIS
MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR OVER EASTERN QUEBEC/LABRADOR WHILE LOW
PRESSURE PASSING OFFSHORE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDERGOES
EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING THROUGH TODAY. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH
REMAINING TO OUR NORTH, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE OUTER BANKS TONIGHT AND PASS OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST OF OUR
REGION DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN AN
ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST THRU TUESDAY, WITH ONLY A BRIEF PAUSE
THIS AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY TONIGHT, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
ADDING TO THE TIDAL FLOODING POTENTIAL, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL
BE HIGH DUE TO THE NEW MOON TODAY.
FOR MUCH OF THE JERSEY SHORE, WE ALREADY SAW A LARGE DEPARTURE
WITH THE LOW TIDE EARLIER, AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED SHARPLY AND
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THUS, MODEL
GUIDANCE AND A LOCAL REGRESSION PROGRAM INDICATE THAT A DEPARTURE
OF OVER 2 FEET IS POSSIBLE WITH THE NEXT HIGH TIDE, OR JUST ENOUGH
TO REACH MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS. WITH THE CONTINUED
NORTHEAST FLOW AND HIGH WAVE ACTION, EXPECT THAT IT COULD BE A
SIMILAR STORY FOR TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDE, THOUGH THAT IS THE LOWER OF
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. THUS THE WARNING INCLUDES BOTH HIGH TIDE
CYCLES TODAY. CONTINUED THE WATCH FOR TOMORROW`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN NJ SHORE AND THE DELAWARE COASTS...WITH HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, WE EXPECT A SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FT THIS MORNING.
WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. WE
HAVE ALSO TEMPERED DOWN THE HIGH-BIASED ET AND ESTOFS GUIDANCE DUE
TO A RESIDUAL BIAS OF NEARLY 1 FOOT IN SPOTS. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT, AS WELL AS DELAWARE BAY. THERE IS A
BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER WE REACH THE MINOR THRESHOLD AT
REEDY POINT, WHICH IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON EKMAN TRANSPORT IN A
NORTHEAST FLOW, BUT WE EXPECT IT TO BE CLOSE NONETHELESS.
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT FOR THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE.
FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT/LONGER
FETCH TO THE WIND WILL HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST,
INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY, AND PORTIONS OF THE TIDAL DELAWARE. WE AGREE
WITH THE STRONGER GFS WINDS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS REGARDING A BROAD LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST, WHICH MAY ALLOW WINDS TO QUICKLY
RELAX NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE, PARTICULARLY DELMARVA AND FAR
SOUTHERN NJ. NEVERTHELESS, ASIDE FROM A BRIEF LULL IN THE FLOW
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY MONDAY NIGHT, WE`LL HAVE HAD NEARLY
48 HOURS DURATION OF ONSHORE FLOW, WHICH WILL MAKE FOR HIGHER TIDAL
DEPARTURES COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING, IN ADDITION TO THE
ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDES. IN TERMS OF GUIDANCE, WE SIDED MORE
WITH THE HIGHER ETSS SURGE OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET, EVEN CONSIDERING THE
AFOREMENTIONED RESIDUAL. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE FOR THE NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT WITH
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NJ. ELSEWHERE, WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED, PERHAPS UP TO PHILADELPHIA, GIVEN THE
MORE EASTERLY FLOW UP DELAWARE BAY. FOR THESE AREAS, A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-101-102.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NJZ012>014-020-022-025>027.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ012>014-020-026.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ021-023-
024.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ016.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR NJZ016>023-027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR DEZ002>004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
DEZ001.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR DEZ001-002.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR MDZ008-012-015.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...JOHNSON/KLEIN
MARINE...JOHNSON/KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
503 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF THE
OUTERBANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND FARTHER OUT TO
SEA TODAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT NEAR THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AFTER THIS LOW QUICKLY
MOVE OUT TO SEA EARLY TUESDAY, A WEAKER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
ORGANIZE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH LATE
FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE, A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE
IT INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF SHORE. STILL HAVEN`T SEEN PRECIP
PROPAGATE WEST FAR ENOUGH TO MOVE ON SHORE. HOWEVER, A BAND HAS
BECOME MORE DEFINED IN THE RADAR MOSAIC, AND STILL EXPECT THIS TO
MOVE ONTO THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY SHORE NEAR DAY BREAK. HRRR AND RAP
SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS WELL. SO WILL CONTINUE THE THREE COUNTY
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GENERALLY ONE TO 3 INCHES WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE SHORE.
FOR THE REST OF THE REGION, EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
DAY. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE WINDS. ALREADY WINDS AT THE SHORE ARE
GUSTING 30 TO 35 KT (35 TO 40 MPH). HOWEVER, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD BE DECREASING QUICKLY AFTER DAY BREAK AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY,
SO THE WINDS WE ARE SEEING NOW ARE LIKELY GOING TO BE THE STRONGEST
WINDS OF THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION, GENERALLY SNOW OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX WILL START TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LEADING
TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE REGION. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN
WELL WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME, SO DO NOT EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO BE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND THE MODELS HAVE
IN FACT TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER THROUGH THIS PERIOD. EVEN SO, THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION COULD SEE AS MUCH AS 4 INCHES OF SNOW IF
MESOSCALE BANDS DEVELOP EARLY ENOUGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SECONDARY COASTAL LOW THAT DEEPENS RAPIDLY OFF THE NC OUTERBANKS
MONDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOO FAR OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY TO
DIRECTLY IMPACT US. HOWEVER, WE AREN`T OUT OF THE WOODS AS MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW REORGANIZING AS IT MOVES OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST ON TUESDAY. THIS SEEMS LIKE A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO
SINCE THE INITIAL MILLER-B LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WELL OUT TO
SEA (LEAVING SOME SEPARATION BETWEEN THE TWO) AND THERE LOOKS TO
BE ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
LOW THAT WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO HEIGHT FALLS AND COASTAL
CYCLOGENESIS. IN THESE TYPES OF SETUPS, ENHANCED FRONTOGENETICAL
LIFT AND MESOSCALE BANDING IS FAVORED ON THE NWRN SIDE OF THE LOW.
THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAD COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE BANDING IN THEIR MASS/THERMAL FIELDS THAT
PRODUCES A RELATIVELY NARROW WEST-EAST ORIENTED BAND OF HEAVIER
QPF OVER THE NRN DELMARVA/SERN PA/SRN NJ. PARTIAL THICKNESSES
IMPLY ALL SNOW. HOWEVER, THE CURRENT FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S FOR THESE AREAS OF CONCERN IMPLY THE LOWER BOUNDARY
LAYER IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. THERE IS CERTAINLY A
POTENTIAL THAT SOME RAIN MIXES IN AND/OR SNOW HAS A TOUGH TIME
ACCUMULATING...BUT ONLY IF THE INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP IS LIGHT.
IF THE HEAVIER SNOW DOES MATERIALIZE, THEN DYNAMICAL COOLING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THIS ISSUE.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH WPC AND NEIGHBORING WFOS, WE DECIDED IT WAS
BEST TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR FAR SERN PA, NRN DELMARVA AND
SRN NJ. THE WHOLE AREA IN THE WATCH WILL LIKELY NOT SEE WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWFALL (AND SOME MAYBE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS) BUT THIS IS
WHERE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR 5 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL
EXISTS IN A RATHER NARROW SWATH SOMEWHERE APPROXIMATELY AS FAR
NORTH AS PHILADELPHIA AND AS FAR SOUTH AS DOVER. ANOTHER
CHALLENGE WITH THIS EVENT IS TRYING TO PINPOINT THE TIMING OF THE
HEAVIER SNOW. THE WATCH GOES STARTS LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES 28
HOURS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A LONG DURATION
EVENT BUT WE WENT WIDE IN TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY IN
WHEN THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND DEVELOPS. ONE CAMP OF MODELS INDICATE
IT WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WHILE OTHER
CLUSTER FAVORS LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
FARTHER NORTH INTO NERN PA AND NWRN NJ, WHERE THE POSSIBILITY FOR
HEAVIER SNOW IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY AT THIS POINT, LIGHT SNOW MAY
ONLY ACCUMULATE AN INCH OR TWO TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER,
WE`LL STILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE HEAVIER
SNOW BAND SHIFTING NORTHWARD. VERY FEW SCENARIOS CAN BE RULED OUT
AT THIS POINT.
THE UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY OPENS UP AND THE WAVE PASSES THRU THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A KICKER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. WE WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THIS TIME BUT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
MINOR. THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN ITS WAKE, THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. TEMPS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S NORTH AND WEST OF THE FALL
LINE.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY. A
SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
BASE OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AND ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE
POLAR AIRMASS. FOR THE MOST PART, MODELS ARE SUPPRESSING THE TRACK
OF THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND DEEPENING IT TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO BRING
THE DEEPER ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER, THE 00Z
ECMWF, WITH SUPPORT FROM SOME OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, ARE SHOWING A
DEEPER AND MORE NORTHERN SYSTEM, WHICH COULD BRING YET ANOTHER
ROUND OF AT SNOW TO OUR REGION.
A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE IT INTO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES COULD BE 15-20F BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND
AND WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES (KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KILG) AND THE
WESTERN TAF SITES (KABE AND KRDG) - MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z. AFTER THAT, AN APPROACHING TROUGH
WILL BRING LOWER CEILINGS, AND EVENTUALLY LOWER VISIBILITIES WITH
SNOW. LOWER CEILINGS COULD START TO MOVE IN BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z, BUT
DO NOT EXPECT THE SNOW TO MOVE IN UNTIL AFTER 00Z. ONCE SNOW
BEGINS TO MOVE IN, EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF SNOW EXPECTED. THE SNOW MAY
MIX WITH RAIN AT MIV AND ACY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY ESPECIALLY AT
TIMES WHEN IT IS LIGHTER. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING AND OVERALL IMPACTS AT THE AIRPORTS BUT WE CAN
SAY THAT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT A NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW
WILL DEVELOP SOMETIME DURING THE PERIOD NEAR THE ILG-PHL-ACY
CORRIDOR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR
LIFR IF THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND DEVELOPS.
WEDNESDAY...LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY, THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR. BREEZY WLY WINDS
GUSTING TO 25 KT.
THURSDAY...VFR AND BREEZY NW WINDS GUSTING AOA 30 KT. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH.
FRIDAY...CURRENTLY FORECASTING VFR BUT WE ARE WATCHING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO DEVELOP NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
BRING MORE SNOW INTO THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
&&
.MARINE...
A GALE WARNING CONTINUES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. HAVE ALREADY SEEN
SEVERAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST REPORT GALE GUSTS. EXPECT THESE
STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY BEFORE DROPPING OFF
SHARPLY. ALTHOUGH SCA CONDITIONS FOR SEAS AND WINDS MAY LINGER FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY.
ON THE DELAWARE BAY, EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNRISE. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THEY MAY LINTER FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS BEYOND SUNRISE.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HAZARDOUS
SEAS AND PERIODS OF 25 KT GUSTS. THERE COULD BE A TEMPORARY LULL IN
THE WINDS ON TUESDAY CLOSE TO WHERE THE LOW DEVELOPS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SOLID SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GALES ARE
CERTAINLY A POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY NW WINDS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
***MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY AT SANDY HOOK FOR BOTH HIGH
TIDE CYCLES TODAY. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY NEAR THE THIS
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE FOR OTHER LOCATIONS. THERE IS INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING NEAR THE TUESDAY MORNING
HIGH TIDE.***
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR OVER EASTERN QUEBEC/LABRADOR WHILE LOW
PRESSURE PASSING OFFSHORE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDERGOES EXPLOSIVE
DEEPENING THROUGH TODAY. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH REMAINING
TO OUR NORTH, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
OUTER BANKS TONIGHT AND PASS OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN AN
ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST THRU TUESDAY, WITH ONLY A BRIEF PAUSE
THIS AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY TONIGHT, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
ADDING TO THE TIDAL FLOODING POTENTIAL, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL
BE HIGH DUE TO THE NEW MOON TODAY.
AT SANDY HOOK, WE ALREADY SAW A LARGE DEPARTURE WITH THE LOW TIDE
EARLIER, AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED SHARPLY AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THUS, MODEL GUIDANCE AND A
LOCAL REGRESSION PROGRAM INDICATE THAT A DEPARTURE OF OVER 2 FEET
IS POSSIBLE WITH THE NEXT HIGH TIDE, OR JUST ENOUGH TO REACH
MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS. WITH THE CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW
AND HIGH WAVE ACTION, EXPECT THAT IT COULD BE A SIMILAR STORY FOR
TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDE, THOUGH THAT IS THE LOWER OF THE ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES. THUS THE WARNING INCLUDES BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES TODAY.
CONTINUED THE WATCH FOR TOMORROW`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
FOR THE REST OF THE COAST...WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, WE EXPECT
A SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FT THIS MORNING. WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. WE HAVE ALSO TEMPERED DOWN THE
HIGH-BIASED ET AND ESTOFS GUIDANCE DUE TO A RESIDUAL BIAS OF
NEARLY 1 FOOT IN SPOTS. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NJ AND DE
OCEANFRONT, AS WELL AS DELAWARE BAY. THERE IS A BIT MORE
UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER WE REACH THE MINOR THRESHOLD AT REEDY
POINT, WHICH IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON EKMAN TRANSPORT IN A
NORTHEAST FLOW, BUT WE EXPECT IT TO BE CLOSE NONETHELESS.
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT FOR THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE.
FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT/LONGER
FETCH TO THE WIND WILL HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST,
INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY, AND PORTIONS OF THE TIDAL DELAWARE. WE AGREE
WITH THE STRONGER GFS WINDS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS REGARDING A BROAD LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST, WHICH MAY ALLOW WINDS TO QUICKLY
RELAX NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE, PARTICULARLY DELMARVA AND FAR
SOUTHERN NJ. NEVERTHELESS, ASIDE FROM A BRIEF LULL IN THE FLOW
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY MONDAY NIGHT, WE`LL HAVE HAD NEARLY
48 HOURS DURATION OF ONSHORE FLOW, WHICH WILL MAKE FOR HIGHER TIDAL
DEPARTURES COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING, IN ADDITION TO THE
ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDES. IN TERMS OF GUIDANCE, WE SIDED MORE
WITH THE HIGHER ETSS SURGE OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET, EVEN CONSIDERING THE
AFOREMENTIONED RESIDUAL. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE FOR THE NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT WITH
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NJ. ELSEWHERE, WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED, PERHAPS UP TO PHILADELPHIA, GIVEN THE
MORE EASTERLY FLOW UP DELAWARE BAY. FOR THESE AREAS, A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-101-102.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ012>014-020-026.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ020>027.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR NJZ016>023-027.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NJZ012>014.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR DEZ002>004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR DEZ001-002.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR MDZ008-012-015.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...JOHNSON/KLEIN
MARINE...JOHNSON/KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
348 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF THE
OUTERBANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND FARTHER OUT TO
SEA TODAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT NEAR THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AFTER THIS LOW QUICKLY
MOVE OUT TO SEA EARLY TUESDAY, A WEAKER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
ORGANIZE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH LATE
FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE, A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE
IT INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF SHORE. STILL HAVEN`T SEEN PRECIP
PROPAGATE WEST FAR ENOUGH TO MOVE ON SHORE. HOWEVER, A BAND HAS
BECOME MORE DEFINED IN THE RADAR MOSAIC, AND STILL EXPECT THIS TO
MOVE ONTO THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY SHORE NEAR DAY BREAK. HRRR AND RAP
SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS WELL. SO WILL CONTINUE THE THREE COUNTY
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GENERALLY ONE TO 3 INCHES WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE SHORE.
FOR THE REST OF THE REGION, EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
DAY. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE WINDS. ALREADY WINDS AT THE SHORE ARE
GUSTING 30 TO 35 KT (35 TO 40 MPH). HOWEVER, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD BE DECREASING QUICKLY AFTER DAY BREAK AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY,
SO THE WINDS WE ARE SEEING NOW ARE LIKELY GOING TO BE THE STRONGEST
WINDS OF THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION, GENERALLY SNOW OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX WILL START TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LEADING
TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE REGION. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN
WELL WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME, SO DO NOT EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO BE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND THE MODELS HAVE
IN FACT TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER THROUGH THIS PERIOD. EVEN SO, THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION COULD SEE AS MUCH AS 4 INCHES OF SNOW IF
MESOSCALE BANDS DEVELOP EARLY ENOUGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NR THE MID ATLC CST MON
NIGHT. THE GUID IS IN AGREEMENT ON THIS PART. THE DISAGREEMENT
LIES IN THE DETAILS, WHICH ARE IMPORTANT.
YESTERDAY, THE ECMWF, WENT OUT ON ITS OWN, WITH A STRONGER AND
MORE EWD SOLN. IT CONTINUED THAT TREND ON THE OVERNIGHT RUN AND
AGAIN ON TODAY`S RUN. IT HAS A MORE CONSOLIDATED LOW CENTER,
BRINGS THAT CENTER FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CST, AND HAS MUCH LESS
IMPACT ON OUR AREA.
WHILE THE ECMWF`S PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN LESS THAN STELLAR THIS
WINTER, AND IT IS A CLEAR OUTLIER IN THIS CASE. HOWEVER, ITS
OVERALL STATISTICS MEAN IT`S SOLUTION CAN NOT BE TOTALLY IGNORED,
AND STRANGER THINGS HAVE HAPPENED.
THE REST OF THE OTHER MDLS DO BRING A GENLY LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. PRECIP WILL BEGIN LATER MON AND TEMPS
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN OR SNOW THAT HAS A HARD TIME
ACCUMULATING IN MOST AREAS AND ON MANY SURFACES DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS.
AFTER SUNSET, THE SNOW WOULD START TO ACCUMULATE MORE. THE GUID
ALSO DIFFERS ON THE AREAS THAT WOULD SEE THE MOST QPF AND CHCS OF
HEAVIEST SNOWS. WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW LOOKS TO FALL WOULD BE ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE, EVEN WITH THE JANUARY BLIZZARD, THE MDLS WERE
HAVING TROUBLE DECIPHERING THIS EVEN 12 HOURS BEFOREHAND.
SO FOR NOW, WILL ONLY MAKE INCREMENTAL CHANGES TO THE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. ATTM, THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ADVY EVENT OR PSBLY LOW END WRNG
IN SOME AREAS.
ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR IS TEMPS DURG THE DAY ON TUE. TEMPS
WILL BE ABV FREEZING IN MANY AREAS, SO THERE CUD BE A MIX OR
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN, ESPECIALLY IN SRN AND ERN AREAS, AND MUCH
LIKE WE HAD THE OTHER DAY, EVEN WHERE IT SNOWS, IT COULD END UP
ACCUMULATING MAINLY ON GRASSY SFCS AND LESS TRAVELED ROADS DURG
DAYLIGHT HOURS, IF IT IS NOT COMING DOWN HARD.
THINGS SHUD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
THEN, A LARGE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL
CONUS. THIS HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT A GENLY DRY AND BREEZY NWLY FLOW WED THRU SAT. HOWEVER
TEMPS WILL NOT MAKE IT ABV FREEZING FROM THU ON. WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE TEENS. NRML LOWS ARE IN THE LOWER 40S NOW. SO WE ARE
LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS THAT WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NRML, AND WITH THE DAYS GETTING INCREASINGLY LONGER, THIS IS
INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO ACCOMPLISH, ESPECIALLY FOR AN EXTENDD
PD.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES (KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KILG) AND THE
WESTERN TAF SITES (KABE AND KRDG) - MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z. AFTER THAT, AN APPROACHING TROUGH
WILL BRING LOWER CEILINGS, AND EVENTUALLY LOWER VISIBILITIES WITH
SNOW. LOWER CEILINGS COULD START TO MOVE IN BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z, BUT
DO NOT EXPECT THE SNOW TO MOVE IN UNTIL AFTER 00Z. ONCE SNOW
BEGINS TO MOVE IN, EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING DURG THIS TIME AND FOR
FOR KPHL, KPNE, KMIV, KACY WILL TRANSITION FROM RAIN OR MIX TO
SNOW MON NIGHT. ELSEWHERE WILL BE SNOW MON NIGHT. PRECIP SHUD BE
LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART BUT THERE CUD BE SOME MDT OR HVY BURSTS.
EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDS. ON TUE, TEMPS SHUD WARM ENOUGH THAT FOR
KPHL, KPNE, KACY, KMIV SHUD AGAIN SEE A MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO RAIN,
DEPENDING ON HOW WARM TEMPS GET. LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE.
WED...SOME LINGERING SHSN, THEN IMPROVING TO VFR. BREEZY WITH W
TO NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THU...VFR AND BREEZY WITH NW WIND GUSTING 25 TO 30 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
A GALE WARNING CONTINUES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. HAVE ALREADY SEEN
SEVERAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST REPORT GALE GUSTS. EXPECT THESE
STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY BEFORE DROPPING OFF
SHARPLY. ALTHOUGH SCA CONDITIONS FOR SEAS AND WINDS MAY LINGER FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY.
ON THE DELAWARE BAY, EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNRISE. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THEY MAY LINTER FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS BEYOND SUNRISE.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
OUTLOOK...
TUE THROUGH WED...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYS WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
DURING THIS TIME. IT IS PSBL THAT THERE CUD BE SOME GALES,
ESPECIALLY ON WED, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE LOW.
THU...SOLID SCA CONDITIONS. NW WINDS BEHIND A CFP, WITH THE BEST
CHC FOR GALES.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
***MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY AT SANDY HOOK FOR BOTH HIGH
TIDE CYCLES TODAY. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY NEAR THE THIS
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE FOR OTHER LOCATIONS. THERE IS INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING NEAR THE TUESDAY MORNING
HIGH TIDE***
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR OVER EASTERN QUEBEC/LABRADOR WHILE LOW
PRESSURE PASSING OFFSHORE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDERGOES EXPLOSIVE
DEEPENING OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH REMAINING TO OUR NORTH, A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE OUTER BANKS MONDAY NIGHT AND PASS
OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST THRU
TUESDAY, WITH ONLY A BRIEF PAUSE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
SETTING THE STAGE, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE HIGH EARLY THIS WEEK,
TO DUE TO THE NEW MOON ON MONDAY.
AT SANDY HOOK, WE ALREADY SAW A LARGE DEPARTURE WITH THE LOW TIDE AT
SANDY HOOK EARLIER, AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED SHARPLY AND ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THUS, MODEL
GUIDANCE AND A LOCAL REGRESSION PROGRAM INDICATE THAT A DEPARTURE OF
OVER 2 FEET IS POSSIBLE WITH THE NEXT HIGH TIDE, OR JUST ENOUGH TO
REACH MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS. WITH THE CONTINUED NORTHEAST
FLOW AND HIGH WAVE ACTION, EXPECT THAT IT COULD BE A SIMILAR STORY
FOR TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE, THOUGH THAT IS THE LOWER OF THE ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES. THUS THE WARNING INCLUDES BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES TODAY.
CONTINUED THE WATCH FOR TOMORROWS HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
FOR THE REST OF THE COAST...WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, WE EXPECT
A SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET. WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. WE HAVE ALSO TEMPERED DOWN THE HIGH-BIASED
ET AND ESTOFS GUIDANCE DUE TO A RESIDUAL OF NEARLY 1 FOOT IN SPOTS.
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH
TIDE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT, AS WELL AS
DELAWARE BAY. THERE IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER WE REACH
THE MINOR THRESHOLD AT REEDY POINT, WHICH IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON
EKMAN TRANSPORT IN A NORTHEAST FLOW, BUT WE EXPECT IT TO BE CLOSE
NONETHELESS.
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ
AND DE OCEANFRONT FOR THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE, AS MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO LINGER.
FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT/LONGER
FETCH TO THE WIND WILL HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST,
INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY, AND PORTIONS OF THE TIDAL DELAWARE. WE AGREE
WITH THE STRONGER GFS WINDS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS REGARDING A BROAD LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST, WHICH MAY ALLOW WINDS TO QUICKLY
RELAX NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE, PARTICULARLY DELMARVA AND FAR
SOUTHERN NJ. NEVERTHELESS, ASIDE FROM A BRIEF LULL IN THE FLOW
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY MONDAY NIGHT, WE`LL HAVE HAD NEARLY
48 HOURS DURATION OF ONSHORE FLOW, WHICH WILL MAKE FOR HIGHER TIDAL
DEPARTURES COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING, IN ADDITION TO THE
ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDES. IN TERMS OF GUIDANCE, WE SIDED MORE
WITH THE HIGHER ETSS SURGE OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET, EVEN CONSIDERING THE
AFOREMENTIONED RESIDUAL. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE FOR THE NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT WITH THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NJ. ELSEWHERE, WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED, PERHAPS UP TO PHILADELPHIA, GIVEN THE MORE
EASTERLY FLOW UP DELAWARE BAY. FOR THESE AREAS, A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-101-102.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ012>014-020-026.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ020>027.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR NJZ016>023-027.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NJZ012>014.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR DEZ002>004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR DEZ001-002.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR MDZ008-012-015.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
226 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL RAPIDLY
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. BEHIND THESE TWO LOWS, ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE NATION AROUND MIDWEEK AND
WORK ITS WAY TOWARD THE EAST COAST BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MIDDLESEX,
MONMOUTH, AND OCEAN COUNTIES. THOUGH RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE
BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP IS CONTRACTING, HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW A FURTHER WEST TRACK
WITH THE LOW, WITH THE PRIME PERIOD FOR PRECIP FROM 12 TO 15Z. DID
NOT EXTEND IT FURTHER SOUTH AS IT LOOKS LIKE ACROSS CAPE MAY AND
ATLANTIC COUNTIES, TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP FAST ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIP STARTS TO MOVE OUT OF THOSE AREAS.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, BEFORE THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOWFALL
DEVELOPS ALONG COASTAL PORTIONS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY. A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUDS/TEMPS WERE MADE WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS EAST
OF CAPE HATTERAS. IT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS
EXPECTED TO EXPAND SLIGHTLY ON THE WEST SIDE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. AS OF NOW THE QUESTION
FOR OUR AREA IS HOW FAR WEST. BASED ON RECENT MODEL DIAGNOSTICS
AND COLLABORATION, WE EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO
REMAIN RIGHT NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE, THEN EXTEND TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST. THE NAM AND SREF ARE CURRENTLY THOUGHT TO BE HIGH WITH
THEIR AMOUNTS, WHILE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF GIVE A BETTER
EXPECTATION OF AMOUNTS.ANOTHER CONCERN WOULD BE HOW MUCH WOULD
ACCUMULATE BASED ON TEMPERATURES, AS TEMPERATURES AT THE ONSET
WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE FREEZING. SO FOR NOW WE ARE EXPECTING AROUND
AN INCH FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS, WITH
1-2 INCHES ACROSS AREAS FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHERN OCEAN AND
MONMOUTH COUNTIES AND EASTERN MIDDLESEX. WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
WINTER ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME AND LET LATER SHIFTS MONITOR FUTURE
GUIDANCE AND SEE IF A SHORT FUSED ADVISORY IS NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY, THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD WELL OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST. MEANWHILE, A
WEAKENING BACKDOOR FRONT MAY SAG DOWN INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS AS
WELL. THERE MAY LIKELY BE SOME SNOWFALL REMAINING ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW, AND AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD
INTO OUR AREA, IT COULD HELP ENHANCE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS. SO THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. AGAIN, THE
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE
AND TO OUR NORTHEAST, SO WHILE THERE COULD BE A LIGHT ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL, WE DO NOT EXPECT ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS TO BE MET AT THIS
TIME. ESPECIALLY IF SNOWFALL MIXES WITH OR CHANGES OVER TO RAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NR THE MID ATLC CST MON
NIGHT. THE GUID IS IN AGREEMENT ON THIS PART. THE DISAGREEMENT
LIES IN THE DETAILS, WHICH ARE IMPORTANT.
YESTERDAY, THE ECMWF, WENT OUT ON ITS OWN, WITH A STRONGER AND
MORE EWD SOLN. IT CONTINUED THAT TREND ON THE OVERNIGHT RUN AND
AGAIN ON TODAY`S RUN. IT HAS A MORE CONSOLIDATED LOW CENTER,
BRINGS THAT CENTER FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CST, AND HAS MUCH LESS
IMPACT ON OUR AREA.
WHILE THE ECMWF`S PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN LESS THAN STELLAR THIS
WINTER, AND IT IS A CLEAR OUTLIER IN THIS CASE. HOWEVER, ITS
OVERALL STATISTICS MEAN IT`S SOLUTION CAN NOT BE TOTALLY IGNORED,
AND STRANGER THINGS HAVE HAPPENED.
THE REST OF THE OTHER MDLS DO BRING A GENLY LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. PRECIP WILL BEGIN LATER MON AND TEMPS
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN OR SNOW THAT HAS A HARD TIME
ACCUMULATING IN MOST AREAS AND ON MANY SURFACES DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS.
AFTER SUNSET, THE SNOW WOULD START TO ACCUMULATE MORE. THE GUID
ALSO DIFFERS ON THE AREAS THAT WOULD SEE THE MOST QPF AND CHCS OF
HEAVIEST SNOWS. WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW LOOKS TO FALL WOULD BE ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE, EVEN WITH THE JANUARY BLIZZARD, THE MDLS WERE
HAVING TROUBLE DECIPHERING THIS EVEN 12 HOURS BEFOREHAND.
SO FOR NOW, WILL ONLY MAKE INCREMENTAL CHANGES TO THE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. ATTM, THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ADVY EVENT OR PSBLY LOW END WRNG
IN SOME AREAS.
ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR IS TEMPS DURG THE DAY ON TUE. TEMPS
WILL BE ABV FREEZING IN MANY AREAS, SO THERE CUD BE A MIX OR
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN, ESPECIALLY IN SRN AND ERN AREAS, AND MUCH
LIKE WE HAD THE OTHER DAY, EVEN WHERE IT SNOWS, IT COULD END UP
ACCUMULATING MAINLY ON GRASSY SFCS AND LESS TRAVELED ROADS DURG
DAYLIGHT HOURS, IF IT IS NOT COMING DOWN HARD.
THINGS SHUD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
THEN, A LARGE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL
CONUS. THIS HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT A GENLY DRY AND BREEZY NWLY FLOW WED THRU SAT. HOWEVER
TEMPS WILL NOT MAKE IT ABV FREEZING FROM THU ON. WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE TEENS. NRML LOWS ARE IN THE LOWER 40S NOW. SO WE ARE
LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS THAT WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NRML, AND WITH THE DAYS GETTING INCREASINGLY LONGER, THIS IS
INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO ACCOMPLISH, ESPECIALLY FOR AN EXTENDD
PD.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE TAF SITES FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO LOWER ON
THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST WELL OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST. CIGS WILL DECREASE INTO
THE MVFR RANGE FOR AWHILE LATE TONIGHT AND THEN IMPROVE MONDAY.
MORE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SNOWFALL. BASED ON LATEST MODEL DIAGNOSTICS AND COLLABORATION, WE
EXPECT SNOWFALL TO REMAIN ACROSS MOSTLY COASTAL AREAS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE AND OFFSHORE. THE MAIN TAF SITES THAT WOULD BE
AFFECTED WOULD BE ACY, WHICH COULD EXPERIENCE IFR CONDITIONS WITH
ANY SNOWFALL, IN ADDITION TO MIV WHICH COULD ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME
LIGHTER SNOWFALL AS WELL.
WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY EAST-NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS FOR
THE REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING
OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD, AND LIKELY BECOME GUSTY 20-25
KNOTS BY MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE GUSTY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY, BEFORE THE GUSTS DROP OFF BY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT AND TUE...PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING DURG THIS TIME AND FOR
FOR KPHL, KPNE, KMIV, KACY WILL TRANSITION FROM RAIN OR MIX TO
SNOW MON NIGHT. ELSEWHERE WILL BE SNOW MON NIGHT. PRECIP SHUD BE
LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART BUT THERE CUD BE SOME MDT OR HVY BURSTS.
EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDS. ON TUE, TEMPS SHUD WARM ENOUGH THAT FOR
KPHL, KPNE, KACY, KMIV SHUD AGAIN SEE A MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO RAIN,
DEPENDING ON HOW WARM TEMPS GET. LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE.
WED...SOME LINGERING SHSN, THEN IMPROVING TO VFR. BREEZY WITH W
TO NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THU...VFR AND BREEZY WITH NW WIND GUSTING 25 TO 30 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING EAST OF THE WATERS
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH MONDAY
AND THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
AND WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYS WILL DEVELOP OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. IT IS PSBL THAT THERE CUD BE SOME GALES,
ESPECIALLY ON WED, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE LOW.
THU...SOLID SCA CONDITIONS. NW WINDS BEHIND A CFP, WITH THE BEST
CHC FOR GALES.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
***MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY NEAR THE MONDAY MORNING
HIGH TIDE. THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING NEAR THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE***
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR OVER EASTERN QUEBEC/LABRADOR WHILE LOW
PRESSURE PASSING OFFSHORE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDERGOES EXPLOSIVE
DEEPENING OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH REMAINING TO OUR NORTH, A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE OUTER BANKS MONDAY NIGHT AND PASS
OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST THRU
TUESDAY, WITH ONLY A BRIEF PAUSE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
SETTING THE STAGE, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE HIGH EARLY THIS WEEK,
TO DUE TO THE NEW MOON ON MONDAY.
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, WE THINK THE NAM BACKS THE WINDS
TOO MUCH /MORE NORTHERLY/ AS WE APPROACH HIGH TIDE, POSSIBLY DUE TO
AN ISALLOBARIC EFFECT WITH THE DEEPENING OFFSHORE SYSTEM, AND IT WAS
DEEMED AN OUTLIER. WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS QUICKLY RAMPING UP TO GALE FORCE JUST OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT,
WE EXPECT A SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET. WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY COAST WHERE POCKETS OF MODERATE FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE,
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A GREATER COMPONENT OF ONSHORE FLOW. WE
HAVE ALSO TEMPERED DOWN THE HIGH-BIASED ET AND ESTOFS GUIDANCE DUE
TO A RESIDUAL OF NEARLY 1 FOOT IN SPOTS. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE NJ AND
DE OCEANFRONT, AS WELL AS DELAWARE BAY. THERE IS A BIT MORE
UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER WE REACH THE MINOR THRESHOLD AT REEDY
POINT, WHICH IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON EKMAN TRANSPORT IN A
NORTHEAST FLOW, BUT WE EXPECT IT TO BE CLOSE NONETHELESS.
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT
FOR THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE, AS MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER.
FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT/LONGER
FETCH TO THE WIND WILL HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST,
INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY, AND PORTIONS OF THE TIDAL DELAWARE. WE AGREE
WITH THE STRONGER GFS WINDS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS REGARDING A BROAD LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST, WHICH MAY ALLOW WINDS TO QUICKLY
RELAX NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE, PARTICULARLY DELMARVA AND FAR
SOUTHERN NJ. NEVERTHELESS, ASIDE FROM A BRIEF LULL IN THE FLOW
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY MONDAY NIGHT, WE`LL HAVE HAD
NEARLY 48 HOURS DURATION OF ONSHORE FLOW, WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
HIGHER TIDAL DEPARTURES COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING, IN ADDITION TO
THE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDES. IN TERMS OF GUIDANCE, WE SIDED
MORE WITH THE HIGHER ETSS SURGE OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET, EVEN CONSIDERING
THE AFOREMENTIONED RESIDUAL. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE FOR THE NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT
WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NJ. ELSEWHERE, WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED, PERHAPS UP TO PHILADELPHIA, GIVEN
THE MORE EASTERLY FLOW UP DELAWARE BAY. FOR THESE AREAS, A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ012>014-020-026.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
020>027.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR DEZ002>004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1040 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
W/SW FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT...
BECOMING BREEZY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY. HI
RES VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS GULF STRATOCU PUSHING ONSHORE THE FL GULF
COAST AND THIS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON SO
AFTER A SUNNY MORNING...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON. PROSPECT FOR RAIN CONTINUES TO LOOK TOO LOW TO MENTION
THRU THE AFTN. LOCAL WRF AND HRRR MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LIGHT
PRECIP MOVING INTO THE FA THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT ASSOCD WITH THE
NEXT COLD FRONT. AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LOW...LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH.
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING QUICKLY THROUGH THE 50S THIS MORNING WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE MID 60S AREAWIDE THIS AFTN...WITH A FEW UPPER 60S
POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH MILDER THAN YESTERDAY...THESE TEMPS ARE STILL
5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO CURRENT FCST.
&&
.AVIATION... VFR CONDS GENERALLY EXPECTED THRU 12Z TUE. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING BKN-OVC INTO TONIGHT... BUT
CIGS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 040 AGL. MAY SEE TEMPO MVFR
CONDS WITH -SHRA AS THEY PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND REMAIN
ELEVATED AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...VEERING TO THE
NORTHWEST. WIND SPEEDS UP TO 15-20 KTS GENERALLY EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT TIMES.
&&
.MARINE... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT COASTAL WATERS FCST.
TODAY/TONIGHT...BOATING CONDITIONS REMAIN HAZARDOUS TODAY...BECOMING
VERY HAZARDOUS INTO TONIGHT AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AND MOVES SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS. W/NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS THIS
MORNING INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...REACHING UP TO
25-30 KNOTS OFFSHORE WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE EXPECTED.
THESE WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS BACK UP TO 10-11 FEET OFFSHORE. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES OVER THE WATERS WITH A GALE WARNING NOW
GOING INTO EFFECT OFFSHORE STARTING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...
REACHING THE MID 60S...AND WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA
EXPECTING TO SEE MIN RH VALUES AS LOW AS THE MID 30S. IN
ADDITION...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON
GENERATING EXCELLENT DISPERSION VALUES AND INCREASE FIRE
SENSITIVITY. HOWEVER ERC VALUES REMAIN VERY LOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 65 43 58 36 / 10 30 10 10
MCO 65 45 59 41 / 10 30 10 10
MLB 65 44 61 42 / 0 20 10 10
VRB 65 45 63 44 / 0 20 10 10
LEE 66 44 58 40 / 10 30 10 10
SFB 66 43 59 38 / 10 30 10 10
ORL 65 44 59 42 / 10 30 10 10
FPR 66 48 63 44 / 0 20 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLAGLER
BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN
INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
&&
$$
KELLY/SPRATT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
948 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
...Gusty Winds Expected This Afternoon...
.Near Term [Through Today]...
The main concern for today is the chance for gusty winds this
afternoon. A cold front stretches from the Great Lakes southward
to Louisiana and will push rapidly eastward today. There is not
much moisture return ahead of it, so only a few scattered light
showers are expected this afternoon across the area with most
places remaining dry. However, it is a fairly vigorous front with
gusty winds expected this afternoon behind it. The question is how
gusty will the winds be? Looking at some forecast sounding in
BUFKIT for this afternoon, the models are forecasting unusually
deep mixing heights for this time of year around 7000 ft with very
steep low level lapse rates. As an example, the 13z HRRR is
forecasting the 0-3 km lapse rate to be 9.0 C/km at Dothan at 20z
and 8.9 C/km at Albany. This is a very favorable pattern for
mixing down strong wind gusts to the surface. The momentum
transfer tool in BUFKIT is indicating the potential for gusts to
peak near 40 mph from mid to late afternoon across a large portion
of the area, which happens to be our local wind advisory criteria.
As a result, the wind advisory has been expanded to include a
larger part of the area for this afternoon.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 12z Tuesday] VFR conditions will prevail today, but winds
will be gusty this afternoon with frequent gusts around 25 knots
and peak gusts near 35 knots possible. Winds will diminish
around sunset.
&&
.Prev Discussion [620 AM EST]...
.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
The long wave trough over the Mississippi Valley will amplify as
it moves east and promises a chilly stretch of weather for the
eastern Gulf Coast. A cold front will push east of the area this
evening, but any light showers associated with it should move
southeast of the area early in the evening. Some parts of the area
north of a line from Crestview to Dothan to Albany could see a
brief light freeze by dawn. Since the required 2-hr durations are
questionable and we have seen many freezes already this winter, we
will hold off on any watch or warning product. Winds will remain
around 10 mph through the night with wind chill readings dropping
into the upper 20s in FL to the lower 20s north of the state line.
This does not quite meet wind advisory criteria. A widespread
freeze looks more likely for Tuesday night so look for future
watches or warnings for that period. We could even flirt with wind
chill advisory criteria (20 degrees or less) by daybreak across
our northern zones. Daytime temperatures will also be chilly with
highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s north and in the lower to mid
50s south.
.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
A mean long wave trough will remain over the eastern U.S. for much
of this period, so we are not looking for any big warm ups.
Another widespread freeze is expected Wednesday night. The trough
will deamplify a bit and with surface high pressure moving east of
the area, we should stay above freezing Thursday night with
daytime highs on Friday close to normal in the 60s. A clipper
system will then bring another cold front through the area Friday
evening, but temperatures will only drop off slightly behind it
for the weekend.
.Marine...
Winds will quickly increase today ahead of a cold front and then
remain elevated behind the front into Tuesday. It still appears
that frequent gale-force gusts are likely with sustained gales
possible from late in the day today through the overnight. Gale
warnings are now in effect for the entire marine area. While gales
will no longer be expected past Tuesday evening, small craft
advisory conditions could persist into Wednesday night. Much lower
winds and seas are then expected on Thursday as high pressure
moves over the waters.
.Fire Weather...
High dispersions will continue through Tuesday due to strong winds.
Dry air will remain in place for the next several days. On Monday
RH values will be in the 30s. Red Flag Warning criteria will not
be met.
.Hydrology...
Many rivers are high or in flood stage at this time. Most area
rivers are currently steady or falling. No significant rainfall is
expected through the next week.
On the Choctawhatchee River, Caryville has crested and is slowly
falling. Near Bruce, the river is in moderate flood and is
expected to crest at 15.5 feet late tonight.
The Apalachicola River at Blountstown has crested and is falling
slowly, but will remain in flood stage all week.
A warning has been issued for the Ochlockonee River at Concord as
it continues to rise. It is forecast to crest at 26.0 feet by this
morning.
The Withlacoochee River at Valdosta has crested and is falling.
Further downstream the Withlacoochee is still rising.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 63 34 53 30 54 / 20 0 0 0 0
Panama City 59 40 51 38 53 / 20 0 0 0 0
Dothan 58 31 48 29 50 / 20 0 0 0 0
Albany 58 31 48 27 50 / 20 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 62 34 51 29 52 / 40 10 0 0 0
Cross City 64 37 55 31 56 / 30 20 0 0 0
Apalachicola 63 40 54 38 55 / 20 10 10 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory from 1 PM EST /noon CST/ this afternoon to 7 PM
EST /6 PM CST/ this evening FOR Calhoun-Central Walton-
Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-
Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Wakulla-
Jackson-Leon-Liberty-Madison-North Walton-Washington.
High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning FOR Coastal Bay-
Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.
Wind Advisory until 9 PM EST /8 PM CST/ this evening FOR Coastal
Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.
High Surf Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Tuesday
FOR Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf.
GA...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST this evening
FOR Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-
Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-
Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-
Tift-Turner-Worth.
AL...Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening FOR
Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.
GM...Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Tuesday FOR
Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
Ochlockonee River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from
Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM.
Gale Warning until 9 PM EST Tuesday FOR Coastal Waters From
Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal
waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
916 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE HEAVIEST LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH 1 TO 2
INCH PER HOUR RATES IN THE STRONGEST BANDS. THEN THE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LESSEN IN INTENSITY BUT STILL PERSIST ALL THE WAY INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND
GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT
REGION SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
NORTHERN INDIANA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...WITH LAKE RESPONSE STARTING TO BECOME MORE
APPARENT VIA OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY. RAP BUFR
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RISING INVERSION HEIGHTS THROUGH
AROUND 09Z. NATURE OF LAKE EFFECT HAS BEEN CELLULAR MULTIBAND
THIS EVENING AND WOULD SUSPECT INTENSITY TO PICK UP LATE EVENING
AS SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR IN
CLOUD BEARING LAYER MAY CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MORE OF A MULTIBAND
SETUP THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CONCERN THAT A MORE DOMINANT BAND MAY SETUP LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING PER RECENT HRRR TRENDS AS WEAK SYNOPTIC
TROUGH DEPARTS SOUTH OF THE LAKE ALLOWING SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE
WIND FIELD ALONG WITH A PEAK IN LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY.
CURRENTLY HAVE NO PLANS FOR HEADLINE CHANGES AT THIS TIME DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN POTENTIAL MORE DOMINANT PLACEMENT/INTENSITY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALSO HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN FORECASTED SNOW ACCUMS. ACCUMULATION EFFICIENCY HAS
STRUGGLED AWAY FROM THE LAKE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH INCREASING
MORE FAVORABLE THERMO PROFILES FOR SNOW GROWTH SHOULD BEGIN TO
COME INTO PLAY LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND THUS HESITANT TO
LOWER AMOUNTS TOO MUCH AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
LONG DURATION LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTN AS
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL NW FLOW AND CAA OVERSPREADS LAKE MICHIGAN
AND NW PORTION OF OUR CWA. FAVORABLE FACTORS FOR LES TONIGHT INCLUDE
A DEEP MOIST LAYER FROM THE SFC-700MB, LITTLE SFC-850MB LAYER SHEAR,
A SHRTWV MOVG ACROSS THE AREA CAUSING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO RISE TO
AROUND 6KFT AND PROVIDING WK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. SFC TROF
REFLECTION SHOULD ALSO MOVE SE ACROSS SRN LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT
STRENGTHENING BANDS AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENHANCED, BUT ALSO
PSBLY CAUSING DOMINANT BANDS TO BECOME SOMEWHAT TRANSITORY.
MAIN NEGATIVE FACTOR OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT IS WK
LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY OF <500J/KG. HIGH RES MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON A COUPLE OF DOMINANT BANDS IMPACTING THE AREA, ONE
THROUGH CASS COUNTY MI AND SECOND IMPACTING SW BERRIEN, NW ST JOE
INDIANA, AND PSBLY NE LAPORTE. EXPECT GENERAL 2-4" SNOWFALL ACCUMS
IN THE ADVISORY AREA TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS PSBL IN
AREAS WHERE DOMINANT BANDS PERSIST THE LONGEST.
LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED TO CONT WED AS 850MB THERMAL TROF WITH -21C
AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE. DESPITE THIS, LITTLE CHANGE IN LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY FCST AS WARMING OCCURS ABOVE INVERSION BASED AROUND
4.5KFT. WITH SOME DRYING OF THE COLUMN ALSO OCCURRING WED/WED NGT,
EXPECT ACCUMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN
TONIGHT, GENERALLY IN THE 1-3" RANGE EACH PERIOD. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD
FINALLY WIND DOWN THU AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN, INVERSION LOWERS, AND
LOW LEVELS CONT TO DRY OUT WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMS EXPECTED TO BE <1"
IN THIS PERIOD. THUS, CONTD WITH A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THIS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EVENT AS 12-24HR AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE BLO
WARNING CRITERIA, THOUGH STORM TOTALS (INCLUDING LAST NIGHT`S
SNOWFALL) WILL PRBLY BE CLOSE TO A FOOT IN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY
AREA.
FOR THE REST OF THE CWA, BRISK CYCLONIC NW FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS PENETRATING WELL INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
HWVR, TYPICAL OF LAKE EFFECT, ACCUMS WILL BE LESS FARTHER INLAND,
THOUGH SOME COUNTIES BORDERING THE ADVISORY MAY HAVE 3-5" STORM
TOTALS.
TEMPS WILL BE ON A GENERAL SLOW DECLINE OVER THE NEXT 36HRS AS
THERMAL TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOWS TNGT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN
THE TEENS WITH HIGHS WED IN THE UPPER TEENS TO L20S, AND LOWS WED
NGT AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY THU AS WK WAA
DVLPS, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE L20S ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
A VERY DEEP COLD CORE LOW WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY
NEAR FAR SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE GFS AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH THE ECMWF HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM BRINGING ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. DELTA T VALUES MAY EXCEED 25C
SATURDAY AS A FAVORABLE LAKE FETCH DEVELOPS. THE FETCH SHOULD BE
MORE NORTH/SOUTH THAN THIS ONGOING EVENT... WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA. HAVE RAISED SNOW CHANCES SATURDAY
IN THIS REGARD. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...CAUSING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO SHIFT WEST.
KEPT TEMPERATURES VERY COLD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWS NEAR ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OVER
FRESH SNOW COVER. MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE HIGH ZONAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD. EXPECTING IFR VSBYS IN THE 1-2
MILE RANGE TO CONTINUE AT KSBN THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...WITH
SOME LOWER END PROBABILITY OF LIFR VSBYS. NEXT SYNOPTIC TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH MORE ORGANIZED BANDING POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF THIS WEAK
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DID MAINTAIN TEMPO
LIFR CONDITIONS AT KSBN AFTER 07Z GIVEN MORE SUBSTANTIAL LAKE
EFFECT PARAMETERS BY THIS TIME. AT LEAST IFR VSBYS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD AT
KSBN...ALTHOUGH GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE CONFINED TO THE
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY PERIOD. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
SOMEWHAT LESS AT KFWA WHERE IFR VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH
CONTRIBUTION OVERNIGHT ALLOWING SOME BETTER INLAND PENETRATION OF
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW SHOWERS. NOT MUCH CHANGE ANTICIPATED TO
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY WESTERLY IN THE 15G20-25 KNOT
RANGE.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
INZ003>005.
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
209 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 244 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
AN UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES EARLY THIS WEEK AND INTERACT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. THE
RESULT WILL BE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CHANCES LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. GUSTY
WINDS IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS COULD RESULT IN SUDDEN REDUCTIONS
IN THE VISIBILITY.
VERY COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WITH SUB ZERO
WIND CHILLS POSSIBLE BY OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE LATE
WEEK AND WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SLOWLY MODERATE AND REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
INITIAL BAND OF SNOW THAT HAS DROPPED A FEW TENTHS ACROSS EASTERN
COUNTIES THIS MORNING IS NOW ABOUT TO SHIFT INTO WESTERN OHIO.
STARTING TO SEE SLOW EXPANSION TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BACK
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND EXPECT THIS
ONLY TO INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE WABASH VALLEY.
15Z TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 30S.
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE UPDATE IS TO BETTER TIME THE TEMP FALLS AND
MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY. COLD FRONT WILL SWING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AND BECOMING GUSTY IN ITS WAKE. AS
STATED...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND LOCALIZED BURSTS OF SNOW
HIGHLIGHTED BY POCKETS OF 30+ DBZ RETURNS ALREADY EXPANDING OVER
WESTERN COUNTIES. MORE EXPANSIVE AND INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS STILL
SLATED TO ARRIVE FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SQUALLS. HAVE
SEEN BRIEF DROPS TO UNDER 1SM IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THIS ONLY TO WORSEN
AS IT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 18Z.
WHILE TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEY
WILL LIKELY BE MITIGATED TO SOME DEGREE BY THE NEAR SURFACE TEMPS
REMAINING NEAR TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SHOULD END ANY
RISE IN TEMPS...BUT IT APPEARS THE SURGE OF STRONGEST COLD
ADVECTION AND CONSEQUENTLY FASTEST TEMP DROPS LOOKS ORIENTED FOR
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SLOWER TEMP FALLS
ELSEWHERE. UTILIZED HOURLY RAP GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT FROM
CURRENT TEMPS AND TRIED TO TIME THE TEMP FALLS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT EVERYONE WILL SLIP BELOW FREEZING NEAR OR JUST
AFTER SUNSET WITH MORE EXTENSIVE TEMP FALLS COMMENCING TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SPS FOR THE HIGH IMPACT SNOW SHOWERS AND
SQUALLS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A MORE INTENSIVE LOOK AT THE
NEED FOR AN IMPACT BASED ADVISORY FOCUSED OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AFTER THE FULL 12Z MODEL SUITE ARRIVES.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
BRIEF SNOW SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. AFTER THAT...SNOW CHANCES WILL LOWER AND WILL SHIFT
MAINLY TO OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS LAKE EFFECT THREAT CONTINUES.
WIND CHILLS WILL THEN BECOME CENTER STAGE.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO
NORTHWESTERN OHIO BY TUESDAY MORNING AND THE APPALACHIANS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...DECENT NORTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL FINALLY WEAKEN TOWARD THURSDAY
MORNING. SO...STARTED OFF WITH LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MAINLY EAST OF A BEDFORD TO TERRE HAUTE LINE. THEN...CHANCE POPS ARE
IN ORDER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES. BY WEDNESDAY...WENT DRY EXCEPT CHANCE OF SNOW NORTHEAST.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD BE BACKING AND LET UP ENOUGH TO PULL LAKE
EFFECT POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FAR NORTHEAST.
BUFKIT WAS SHOWING SNOW RATIOS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 TO 1 TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THUS...DESPITE WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING AND RESULTANT LOW
QPF...HIGH SNOW RATIOS...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETERS SUGGEST STORM SNOWFALL TOTALS OF UP TO 3 INCHES AND
LOCALLY HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND EAST OF KOKOMO AND RUSHVILLE
WITH PROJECTED AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF TO AN INCH OR 2 SOUTHWEST OF
BEDFORD AND CLINTON. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS WILL CAUSE
BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
WITH COLD ADVECTION AND EXPECTED SNOW COVER...WILL GO AT OR BELOW
00Z MOS. SHOULD SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS BY OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT. NEGATIVE WIND CHILLS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING RUSH.
AN ADVISORY WILL BE AN OPTION LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...BUT AFTER
COORDINATION...FEEL THE BEST OPTION FOR NOW IS UPDATING THE STRONGLY
WORDED SPECIAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...WEATHER
STORY AND TWITTER REGARDING THE SNOW. WILL ALSO HIT THE COLD
TEMPERATURES HARD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016
A DECENT AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY SHOWING UP IN ENSEMBLES AND
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS FOR THE LONG TERM. ACCEPTED INITIALIZATION
WITH FEW CHANGES AS THE BLENDED CONSENSUS SHOULD PROVIDE THE MOST
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION. CURRENT 12Z ECMWF IS HITTING CLIPPER
SYSTEM ON FRIDAY PRETTY HARD WHILE GFS KEEPS BEST FORCING NORTH OF
THE AREA AND ESSENTIALLY LEAVES CENTRAL INDIANA DRY. BOTH
MODELS SHOW SOME LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY BUT THIS WOULD ONLY IMPACT THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES IF IT
EVEN REACHES THAT FAR. FINALLY THE LAST STORM SYSTEM TO ADDRESS
IS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND AS AN UPPER WAVE
MOVES THROUGH. VARIABILITY REGARDING STRENGTH AND TIMING IS STILL
HIGH AND THUS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
CHANCES ON MONDAY LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 081800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1128 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR WITHIN HEAVIER SNOW BANDS.
WIND GUSTS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO AROUND 25 KTS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF PREVAILING MVFR RESTRICTIONS
AND OFF AND ON SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONTINUE TO HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THE LOWER CONDITIONS. MOST MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A PERIOD THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WHEN A BREAK OCCURS IN THE
SNOWFALL BUT IT PICKS BACK UP LATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SOME
INDICATIONS OF CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AT LEAST AT
KIND AND KBMG SO MAY INCLUDE TEMPO IFR GROUPS AT THOSE LOCATIONS
TO COVER AFTERNOON SNOW BAND POTENTIAL THERE. WILL HOLD OFF AT KHUF
AND KLAF WITH INSTABILITY REMAINING EAST OF THOSE SITES.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1145 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 244 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
AN UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES EARLY THIS WEEK AND INTERACT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. THE
RESULT WILL BE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CHANCES LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. GUSTY
WINDS IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS COULD RESULT IN SUDDEN REDUCTIONS
IN THE VISIBILITY.
VERY COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WITH SUB ZERO
WIND CHILLS POSSIBLE BY OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE LATE
WEEK AND WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SLOWLY MODERATE AND REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
INITIAL BAND OF SNOW THAT HAS DROPPED A FEW TENTHS ACROSS EASTERN
COUNTIES THIS MORNING IS NOW ABOUT TO SHIFT INTO WESTERN OHIO.
STARTING TO SEE SLOW EXPANSION TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BACK
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND EXPECT THIS
ONLY TO INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE WABASH VALLEY.
15Z TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 30S.
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE UPDATE IS TO BETTER TIME THE TEMP FALLS AND
MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY. COLD FRONT WILL SWING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AND BECOMING GUSTY IN ITS WAKE. AS
STATED...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND LOCALIZED BURSTS OF SNOW
HIGHLIGHTED BY POCKETS OF 30+ DBZ RETURNS ALREADY EXPANDING OVER
WESTERN COUNTIES. MORE EXPANSIVE AND INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS STILL
SLATED TO ARRIVE FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SQUALLS. HAVE
SEEN BRIEF DROPS TO UNDER 1SM IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THIS ONLY TO WORSEN
AS IT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 18Z.
WHILE TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEY
WILL LIKELY BE MITIGATED TO SOME DEGREE BY THE NEAR SURFACE TEMPS
REMAINING NEAR TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SHOULD END ANY
RISE IN TEMPS...BUT IT APPEARS THE SURGE OF STRONGEST COLD
ADVECTION AND CONSEQUENTLY FASTEST TEMP DROPS LOOKS ORIENTED FOR
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SLOWER TEMP FALLS
ELSEWHERE. UTILIZED HOURLY RAP GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT FROM
CURRENT TEMPS AND TRIED TO TIME THE TEMP FALLS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT EVERYONE WILL SLIP BELOW FREEZING NEAR OR JUST
AFTER SUNSET WITH MORE EXTENSIVE TEMP FALLS COMMENCING TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SPS FOR THE HIGH IMPACT SNOW SHOWERS AND
SQUALLS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A MORE INTENSIVE LOOK AT THE
NEED FOR AN IMPACT BASED ADVISORY FOCUSED OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AFTER THE FULL 12Z MODEL SUITE ARRIVES.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
BRIEF SNOW SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. AFTER THAT...SNOW CHANCES WILL LOWER AND WILL SHIFT
MAINLY TO OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS LAKE EFFECT THREAT CONTINUES.
WIND CHILLS WILL THEN BECOME CENTER STAGE.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO
NORTHWESTERN OHIO BY TUESDAY MORNING AND THE APPALACHIANS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...DECENT NORTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL FINALLY WEAKEN TOWARD THURSDAY
MORNING. SO...STARTED OFF WITH LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MAINLY EAST OF A BEDFORD TO TERRE HAUTE LINE. THEN...CHANCE POPS ARE
IN ORDER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES. BY WEDNESDAY...WENT DRY EXCEPT CHANCE OF SNOW NORTHEAST.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD BE BACKING AND LET UP ENOUGH TO PULL LAKE
EFFECT POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FAR NORTHEAST.
BUFKIT WAS SHOWING SNOW RATIOS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 TO 1 TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THUS...DESPITE WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING AND RESULTANT LOW
QPF...HIGH SNOW RATIOS...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETERS SUGGEST STORM SNOWFALL TOTALS OF UP TO 3 INCHES AND
LOCALLY HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND EAST OF KOKOMO AND RUSHVILLE
WITH PROJECTED AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF TO AN INCH OR 2 SOUTHWEST OF
BEDFORD AND CLINTON. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS WILL CAUSE
BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
WITH COLD ADVECTION AND EXPECTED SNOW COVER...WILL GO AT OR BELOW
00Z MOS. SHOULD SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS BY OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT. NEGATIVE WIND CHILLS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING RUSH.
AN ADVISORY WILL BE AN OPTION LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...BUT AFTER
COORDINATION...FEEL THE BEST OPTION FOR NOW IS UPDATING THE STRONGLY
WORDED SPECIAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...WEATHER
STORY AND TWITTER REGARDING THE SNOW. WILL ALSO HIT THE COLD
TEMPERATURES HARD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 217 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
ON THE LARGE SCALE...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS. DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN
THE DETAILS.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...WITH PERHAPS SOME RISE IN HEIGHTS LATE. MODELS ARE HAVING
DISAGREEMENTS ON ENERGY RIDING AROUND THE TROUGH AND THUS CHANCES
FOR SNOW DURING THE PERIOD.
THAT FAR OUT...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE DETAILS AND SEE NO
REASON TO PLAY FAVORITES AT THIS TIME. THUS STUCK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION.
COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH SOME
REINFORCING COLD AIR MOVING IN THANKS TO THE TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 081800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1128 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR WITHIN HEAVIER SNOW BANDS.
WIND GUSTS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO AROUND 25 KTS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF PREVAILING MVFR RESTRICTIONS
AND OFF AND ON SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONTINUE TO HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THE LOWER CONDITIONS. MOST MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A PERIOD THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WHEN A BREAK OCCURS IN THE
SNOWFALL BUT IT PICKS BACK UP LATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SOME
INDICATIONS OF CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AT LEAST AT
KIND AND KBMG SO MAY INCLUDE TEMPO IFR GROUPS AT THOSE LOCATIONS
TO COVER AFTERNOON SNOW BAND POTENTIAL THERE. WILL HOLD OFF AT KHUF
AND KLAF WITH INSTABILITY REMAINING EAST OF THOSE SITES.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1005 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 244 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
AN UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES EARLY THIS WEEK AND INTERACT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. THE
RESULT WILL BE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CHANCES LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. GUSTY
WINDS IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS COULD RESULT IN SUDDEN REDUCTIONS
IN THE VISIBILITY.
VERY COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WITH SUB ZERO
WIND CHILLS POSSIBLE BY OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE LATE
WEEK AND WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SLOWLY MODERATE AND REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
INITIAL BAND OF SNOW THAT HAS DROPPED A FEW TENTHS ACROSS EASTERN
COUNTIES THIS MORNING IS NOW ABOUT TO SHIFT INTO WESTERN OHIO.
STARTING TO SEE SLOW EXPANSION TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BACK
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND EXPECT THIS
ONLY TO INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE WABASH VALLEY.
15Z TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 30S.
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE UPDATE IS TO BETTER TIME THE TEMP FALLS AND
MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY. COLD FRONT WILL SWING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AND BECOMING GUSTY IN ITS WAKE. AS
STATED...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND LOCALIZED BURSTS OF SNOW
HIGHLIGHTED BY POCKETS OF 30+ DBZ RETURNS ALREADY EXPANDING OVER
WESTERN COUNTIES. MORE EXPANSIVE AND INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS STILL
SLATED TO ARRIVE FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SQUALLS. HAVE
SEEN BRIEF DROPS TO UNDER 1SM IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THIS ONLY TO WORSEN
AS IT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 18Z.
WHILE TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEY
WILL LIKELY BE MITIGATED TO SOME DEGREE BY THE NEAR SURFACE TEMPS
REMAINING NEAR TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SHOULD END ANY
RISE IN TEMPS...BUT IT APPEARS THE SURGE OF STRONGEST COLD
ADVECTION AND CONSEQUENTLY FASTEST TEMP DROPS LOOKS ORIENTED FOR
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SLOWER TEMP FALLS
ELSEWHERE. UTILIZED HOURLY RAP GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT FROM
CURRENT TEMPS AND TRIED TO TIME THE TEMP FALLS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT EVERYONE WILL SLIP BELOW FREEZING NEAR OR JUST
AFTER SUNSET WITH MORE EXTENSIVE TEMP FALLS COMMENCING TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SPS FOR THE HIGH IMPACT SNOW SHOWERS AND
SQUALLS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A MORE INTENSIVE LOOK AT THE
NEED FOR AN IMPACT BASED ADVISORY FOCUSED OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AFTER THE FULL 12Z MODEL SUITE ARRIVES.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
BRIEF SNOW SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. AFTER THAT...SNOW CHANCES WILL LOWER AND WILL SHIFT
MAINLY TO OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS LAKE EFFECT THREAT CONTINUES.
WIND CHILLS WILL THEN BECOME CENTER STAGE.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO
NORTHWESTERN OHIO BY TUESDAY MORNING AND THE APPALACHIANS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...DECENT NORTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL FINALLY WEAKEN TOWARD THURSDAY
MORNING. SO...STARTED OFF WITH LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MAINLY EAST OF A BEDFORD TO TERRE HAUTE LINE. THEN...CHANCE POPS ARE
IN ORDER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES. BY WEDNESDAY...WENT DRY EXCEPT CHANCE OF SNOW NORTHEAST.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD BE BACKING AND LET UP ENOUGH TO PULL LAKE
EFFECT POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FAR NORTHEAST.
BUFKIT WAS SHOWING SNOW RATIOS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 TO 1 TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THUS...DESPITE WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING AND RESULTANT LOW
QPF...HIGH SNOW RATIOS...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETERS SUGGEST STORM SNOWFALL TOTALS OF UP TO 3 INCHES AND
LOCALLY HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND EAST OF KOKOMO AND RUSHVILLE
WITH PROJECTED AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF TO AN INCH OR 2 SOUTHWEST OF
BEDFORD AND CLINTON. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS WILL CAUSE
BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
WITH COLD ADVECTION AND EXPECTED SNOW COVER...WILL GO AT OR BELOW
00Z MOS. SHOULD SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS BY OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT. NEGATIVE WIND CHILLS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING RUSH.
AN ADVISORY WILL BE AN OPTION LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...BUT AFTER
COORDINATION...FEEL THE BEST OPTION FOR NOW IS UPDATING THE STRONGLY
WORDED SPECIAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...WEATHER
STORY AND TWITTER REGARDING THE SNOW. WILL ALSO HIT THE COLD
TEMPERATURES HARD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 217 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
ON THE LARGE SCALE...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS. DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN
THE DETAILS.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...WITH PERHAPS SOME RISE IN HEIGHTS LATE. MODELS ARE HAVING
DISAGREEMENTS ON ENERGY RIDING AROUND THE TROUGH AND THUS CHANCES
FOR SNOW DURING THE PERIOD.
THAT FAR OUT...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE DETAILS AND SEE NO
REASON TO PLAY FAVORITES AT THIS TIME. THUS STUCK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION.
COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH SOME
REINFORCING COLD AIR MOVING IN THANKS TO THE TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 081200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 930 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
DROPPED CURRENT CONDITIONS AT KIND TO IFR FROM CEILINGS BUT BRING IT
BACK UP TO MVFR IN ABOUT AN HOUR AND BRING IN WIND GUSTS THEN. ALSO
ADDED A TEMPO GROUP WITH IFR SNOW SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS STARTING
AFTER 19Z. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
PREDOMINANT MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...BUT HIGH VARIABILITY EXPECTED
IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN MVFR
CONDITIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIMING OF LOWEST VISIBILITY
AND POTENTIAL PERIODS OF IFR.
FIRST BAND OF RAIN/SNOW IS EXITING THE SITES...BUT SCATTERED SNOW
CONTINUES BACK INTO ILLINOIS. ONE SURGE OF COLDER AIR IS BACK ACROSS
WESTERN ILLINOIS AND EASTERN IOWA. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE LOWER
VISIBILITY VALUES LATER THIS MORNING. MORE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON.
RATHER THAN USE TEMPOS THROUGHOUT...TRIED TO CAPTURE THE BASICS OF
WHAT WILL HAPPEN TODAY. WENT WITH LOWEST VISIBILITY VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON. NOTE THAT ANY STRONGER SNOW SHOWER COULD PRODUCE IFR
CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE A LULL IN
SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE THIS EVENING...SO WENT BACK TO VCSH MENTION
THEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...50/CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
523 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
18Z SFC DATA HAS A SEASONABLY STRONG LOW OVER LAKE HURON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. DEW
POINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S RAN FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS MUCH OF WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS WITH MORE ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN IOWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
BASED ON RADAR AND RAP MODEL TRENDS...THE FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
RATHER RAPID DISSIPATION SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
TONIGHT...PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT
THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF CLEAR SKIES BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE
BACK INTO THE AREA. THE PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW
ZERO.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN REASONABLY BRISK DURING THE EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING LATE. AS A RESULT...WIND CHILLS WILL DROP
WELL BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. THE EXTREME NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA
MAY SEE WIND CHILLS APPROACH 20 BELOW ZERO PRIOR TO SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.
QUIET AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS CLOUDS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING CLIPPER
TYPE SYSTEM. BY MID WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF A
VINTON IOWA...TO MACOMB ILLINOIS LINE WILL SEE LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP OR
MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE DRY ATMOSPHERE OVER THE AREA MAY INITIALLY
LIMIT ANY SNOW TO FLURRIES BUT LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE OCCURRING BY
LATE AFTERNOON.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BY SUNSET WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNDER AN
INCH OF ACCUMULATION.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM REMAINS TO BE A SERIES OF
CLIPPERS THAT ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA ALONG WITH A 1040+
HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND. SNOWFALL TOTALS LOOK TO BE LIGHT WITH
THESE SYSTEMS...HOWEVER...DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
EXPECT FORECASTS TO VARY GREATLY LEADING INTO THE EVENT. WIND
CHILLS ON FRIDAY NIGHT STILL APPEAR TO REACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY
LEVELS.
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...A CLIPPER SHOULD BE WELL PAST THE
CWA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. DETERMINISTIC GRIDDED AND SPECTRAL
MODELS SUGGEST THAT QPF WILL BE OVER FOR MUCH OF THE CWA BY 00Z
THURSDAY. HIRES CAMS KEEP ALL OF THE PRECIP SOUTH OF THE CWA AND
RESULT IN NO SNOW AFTER 00Z THU. AS SUCH...DECIDED TO NOT ADD ANY
QPF OR SNOW ACCUM DURING THIS PERIOD. DECIDED TO ERR ON THE SIDE
OF CAUTION AND INCLUDE A SCHC OF SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD.
THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE A QUIET DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO TRANSVERSE THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING. THE GEM APPEARS TO SEND THIS CLIPPER WELL INTO THE
CWA WITH COVERAGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS IS AT ODDS WITH THE
REST OF THE MODELS. AS SUCH...WILL GO WITH SCHC TO CHC POPS AT THIS
TIME. THIS FORECAST WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS MODELS MOVE BACK AND
FORTH. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE AREA WILL
SEE LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IF THE GEM VERIFIES.
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY A STRONG 1040+ HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL LEAD TO COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND A CHANCE FOR
WIND CHILL HEADLINES POSSIBLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AM. THE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY.
ON SUNDAY A STRONG WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE N CONUS.
GUIDANCE PREDICTS QPF ACROSS THE AREA. WARMER AIR WILL LIKELY BE
ADVECTED NORTH BY THIS WAVE. AT THIS TIME THERE ARE TOO MANY
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS TO SAY ANYTHING MORE THAN THERE WILL
BE A CHC FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 522 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN MVFR CLOUD DECK WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL
HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE TERMINALS AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. BRISK NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 12
KTS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL PASS TO
THE SOUTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...SHEETS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1213 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
ALL HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED TO END TIME OF 00Z TO BLEND INTO
THINKING OF ADJACENT OFFICES FOR CONSISTENT MESSAGING. THE LATEST
HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST CONTRIBUTIONS OF ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY STILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONTINUE DRAMATIC VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY IN RURAL OPEN AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
TRICKY FORECAST CONTINUES FOR THE SHORT TERM...WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH INTERMITTENT SNOW
SHOWERS. STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES AND CAA COMING THROUGH NOW
TOWARD SUNRISE...WITH ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT OF WINDS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...WITH SATURATION
AND WEAK LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER TO KEEP THREAT FOR DECENT
SNOW SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE DAY. NAM/GFS SEEM OVERDONE ON WINDS
WITH AROUND 50 TO 55 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE SREF/RAP MUCH LESS AROUND 40-45KTS.
NAM/GFS INDICATING THAT THOSE HIGHER WINDS GUSTS ALREADY EXPECTED
TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE CWA...AND CURRENTLY GETTING GUSTS TOPPING
OUT AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH. THEREFORE TRENDED WINDS DOWN A BIT
THROUGH THE DAY GOING CLOSER TO THE RAP/SREF VALUES. WITH THE
LOWERED WINDS...HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING MUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS...THEREFORE HAVE DOWNGRADED SOME OF
THE FRINGES OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
STILL SOME PARTIALLY COVERED/COMPLETELY COVERED ROADWAYS THAT ARE
SLICK DUE TO DRIFTING SNOW...BUT OVERALL VISIBILITIES/BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS NOT BEING REALIZED IN THE SOUTHERN MOST/EASTERN-MOST
AREAS OF THE WARNING. REMAINDER OF THE AREA GETTING REPORTS OF
TRAVEL NOT ADVISED AND CONSISTENT LOWERED VSBYS AT A FEW NORTHERN
LOCATIONS...SO WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE WARNING AS IS. ONLY OTHER
CHANGE WAS TO SHORTEN THE DURATION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
HEADLINES...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO LOWER AND SNOW SHOWERS TO COME
TO AN END TOWARD MID AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS PRETTY QUIET OVERALL. AT 500 MB A LARGE
GYRE WILL BE CARVED OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE
ENTIRE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS LYING BENEATH ITS CYCLONIC FLOW
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AROUND THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...EVEN AS
THE ASSOCIATED WESTERN U.S. RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO ENCROACH UPON THE
MIDWEST...ANOTHER COMPACT BUT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER OR
NEAR IOWA AND REINFORCE THE EASTERN GYRE...DELAYING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WARMING. FINALLY...AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE PATTERN SHOULD BREAK DOWN ALLOWING FOR THE RIDGE TO
MOVE EASTWARD.
IN TERMS OF LOWER LEVELS AND SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE SNOW SHOWERS
AND STRONG WINDS AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SNOW LIKELY ENDING IN OUR EAST BY MIDNIGHT.
NORTH NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS IOWA...BRINGING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS REGIME WILL LIKELY COME ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS GETTING DOWN TO 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO IN
OUR NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. MEANWHILE VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN DEPICTING A ZONE OF WEAK FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING ALOFT MOVING OVER THE AREA AROUND WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY PRODUCING LIGHT SNOWFALL...HOWEVER THESE
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE IN TIME AND SPACE OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IN ADDITION...WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH DRAPED ACROSS IOWA DURING THAT TIME FRAME FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT WOULD INHIBIT ANY MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MAY COME AROUND FRIDAY WHEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN THERE IS A LOT OF RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN
THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY RESULTING PRECIPITATION. IF THE
PROGNOSTIC MODELS ARE ABLE TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION THEN IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AT THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK....PROBABLY FOLLOWED BY MORE COOL AIR TO BEGIN
THE WEEKEND. FINALLY...AT THE END OF THE FORECAST...THE DEEP LAYER
RIDGE MOVING EASTWARD SHOULD BRING A RETURN OF SOMEWHAT MILDER
WEATHER TOWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...08/18Z
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL IA DUE TO CLOUDS AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW. LITTLE
CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT VERY GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS CONTRIBUTIONS OF SNOW SHOWERS BEGIN TO WANE. AT LEAST
MVFR STRATUS AND/OR BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO TUE
MORNING IN MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH
THE PERIOD BUT REMAIN BRISK.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-
ADAMS-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BREMER-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DECATUR-
GUTHRIE-JASPER-MADISON-MARSHALL-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-STORY-
TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BOONE-BUTLER-
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-
GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SMALL
SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1013 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
ALL HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED TO END TIME OF 00Z TO BLEND INTO
THINKING OF ADJACENT OFFICES FOR CONSISTENT MESSAGING. THE LATEST
HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST CONTRIBUTIONS OF ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY STILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONTINUE DRAMATIC VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY IN RURAL OPEN AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
TRICKY FORECAST CONTINUES FOR THE SHORT TERM...WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH INTERMITTENT SNOW
SHOWERS. STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES AND CAA COMING THROUGH NOW
TOWARD SUNRISE...WITH ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT OF WINDS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...WITH SATURATION
AND WEAK LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER TO KEEP THREAT FOR DECENT
SNOW SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE DAY. NAM/GFS SEEM OVERDONE ON WINDS
WITH AROUND 50 TO 55 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE SREF/RAP MUCH LESS AROUND 40-45KTS.
NAM/GFS INDICATING THAT THOSE HIGHER WINDS GUSTS ALREADY EXPECTED
TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE CWA...AND CURRENTLY GETTING GUSTS TOPPING
OUT AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH. THEREFORE TRENDED WINDS DOWN A BIT
THROUGH THE DAY GOING CLOSER TO THE RAP/SREF VALUES. WITH THE
LOWERED WINDS...HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING MUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS...THEREFORE HAVE DOWNGRADED SOME OF
THE FRINGES OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
STILL SOME PARTIALLY COVERED/COMPLETELY COVERED ROADWAYS THAT ARE
SLICK DUE TO DRIFTING SNOW...BUT OVERALL VISIBILITIES/BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS NOT BEING REALIZED IN THE SOUTHERN MOST/EASTERN-MOST
AREAS OF THE WARNING. REMAINDER OF THE AREA GETTING REPORTS OF
TRAVEL NOT ADVISED AND CONSISTENT LOWERED VSBYS AT A FEW NORTHERN
LOCATIONS...SO WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE WARNING AS IS. ONLY OTHER
CHANGE WAS TO SHORTEN THE DURATION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
HEADLINES...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO LOWER AND SNOW SHOWERS TO COME
TO AN END TOWARD MID AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS PRETTY QUIET OVERALL. AT 500 MB A LARGE
GYRE WILL BE CARVED OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE
ENTIRE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS LYING BENEATH ITS CYCLONIC FLOW
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AROUND THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...EVEN AS
THE ASSOCIATED WESTERN U.S. RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO ENCROACH UPON THE
MIDWEST...ANOTHER COMPACT BUT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER OR
NEAR IOWA AND REINFORCE THE EASTERN GYRE...DELAYING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WARMING. FINALLY...AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE PATTERN SHOULD BREAK DOWN ALLOWING FOR THE RIDGE TO
MOVE EASTWARD.
IN TERMS OF LOWER LEVELS AND SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE SNOW SHOWERS
AND STRONG WINDS AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SNOW LIKELY ENDING IN OUR EAST BY MIDNIGHT.
NORTH NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS IOWA...BRINGING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS REGIME WILL LIKELY COME ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS GETTING DOWN TO 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO IN
OUR NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. MEANWHILE VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN DEPICTING A ZONE OF WEAK FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING ALOFT MOVING OVER THE AREA AROUND WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY PRODUCING LIGHT SNOWFALL...HOWEVER THESE
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE IN TIME AND SPACE OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IN ADDITION...WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH DRAPED ACROSS IOWA DURING THAT TIME FRAME FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT WOULD INHIBIT ANY MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MAY COME AROUND FRIDAY WHEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN THERE IS A LOT OF RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN
THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY RESULTING PRECIPITATION. IF THE
PROGNOSTIC MODELS ARE ABLE TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION THEN IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AT THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK....PROBABLY FOLLOWED BY MORE COOL AIR TO BEGIN
THE WEEKEND. FINALLY...AT THE END OF THE FORECAST...THE DEEP LAYER
RIDGE MOVING EASTWARD SHOULD BRING A RETURN OF SOMEWHAT MILDER
WEATHER TOWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...08/12Z
ISSUED AT 538 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND INTERMITTENT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY LOWERING
VSBYS WITH BLOWING SNOW AS WELL. MAINLY IFR TO MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED
AT THE TERMINAL SITES...WITH POSSIBLY DIPS TO LIFR. WINDS TO
DIMINISH SOME TOWARD EVENING...WITH VSBYS IMPROVING BUT LOW CIGS
REMAIN.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-
ADAMS-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BREMER-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DECATUR-
GUTHRIE-JASPER-MADISON-MARSHALL-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-STORY-
TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BOONE-BUTLER-
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-
GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SMALL
SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...BEERENDS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
156 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 156 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016
UPDATED TO BLEND EARLY AFTERNOON OBS INTO THE FORECAST...WITHOUT
ANY SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1015 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
HAVE UPDATED TO FINE TUNE THE TIMING OF THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP
HEADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ALSO BLENDED OBSERVED TEMPS
AND SKY CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 836 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ALREADY MOVING IN FROM
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THE
EAST. SNOW HAS BEEN MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...SO HAVE ALLOWED FOR MORE OF A SNOW MENTION THROUGH THE
REST OF THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RECOVER TO THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40...ALTHOUGH DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SHOWERS
AND THICKER CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN...THESE HIGHS MIGHT BE A BIT
GENEROUS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
VALLEY TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED IN THE PAST HOUR...HOWEVER
BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP RUNS...AM STILL CONCERNED FOR
SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN THE EAST POTENTIALLY ENDING UP WITH A
LIGHT GLAZE. AS SUCH...HAVE HOISTED A SHORT FUSE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. IF THE BETTER WARMING
TRENDS CONTINUE LIKE THEY HAVE IN THE PAST HOUR...THEN THIS WILL
LIKELY GET DROPPED BEFORE EXPIRING.
ONCE THIS FIRST BATCH OF RAIN DEPARTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THERE
WILL BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...UNTIL A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE LAPSE RATES STEEPEN UP
QUITE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER...WITH THE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S FOR MOST TODAY...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY HOLDING OFF FOR MOST PLACES UNTIL DUSK OR SLIGHTLY
THEREAFTER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AS THE COLUMN COOLS QUICKER ALOFT.
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS WILL KICK IN TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY DEEPENS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES ROTATE THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY. STORM TOTALS STILL LOOK TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TAKING A NOSE DIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
READINGS FALLING BELOW FREEZING BY THIS EVENING...AND THEN INTO
THE 20S THROUGH TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE SIMILAR EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN BUT
DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST 72 HOURS OR SO OF THE
FORECAST. BROAD MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL IMPULSES
ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE. MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE
A LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE THAT MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY
WEATHER FOR THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS BOTH RUNS THE 0Z ECMWF
AND GFS HAVE DIVERGED FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS OF 24 HOUR
BACK. THE 0/06Z GFS HAS TRENDED FASTER...MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS...HARDLY PRODUCING ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE 0Z ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM...CARRYING A DEEPENING SFC
WAVE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. CONSEQUENTLY THE ECMWF
ADVERTISES A MORE FAVORABLE PATH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL AND CURRENTLY ADVERTISES SUCH. HOWEVER...OVERALL
CONFIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO RUN LOW WITH EITHER SOLUTION UNTIL
THERE IS BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016
A BAND OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PASSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING A QUICK DROP TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW. EAST OF THIS BAND...CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY
VFR. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY AND
THIS EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL CREATE MVFR CONDITIONS...AND IFR AT
TIMES...LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-111-
114-116.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ088-118-
120.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ104-106>110-112-113-115-117-119.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ087.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL/GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
121 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
HAVE UPDATED TO FINE TUNE THE TIMING OF THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP
HEADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ALSO BLENDED OBSERVED TEMPS
AND SKY CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 836 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ALREADY MOVING IN FROM
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THE
EAST. SNOW HAS BEEN MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...SO HAVE ALLOWED FOR MORE OF A SNOW MENTION THROUGH THE
REST OF THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RECOVER TO THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40...ALTHOUGH DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SHOWERS
AND THICKER CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN...THESE HIGHS MIGHT BE A BIT
GENEROUS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
VALLEY TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED IN THE PAST HOUR...HOWEVER
BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP RUNS...AM STILL CONCERNED FOR
SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN THE EAST POTENTIALLY ENDING UP WITH A
LIGHT GLAZE. AS SUCH...HAVE HOISTED A SHORT FUSE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. IF THE BETTER WARMING
TRENDS CONTINUE LIKE THEY HAVE IN THE PAST HOUR...THEN THIS WILL
LIKELY GET DROPPED BEFORE EXPIRING.
ONCE THIS FIRST BATCH OF RAIN DEPARTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THERE
WILL BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...UNTIL A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE LAPSE RATES STEEPEN UP
QUITE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER...WITH THE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S FOR MOST TODAY...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY HOLDING OFF FOR MOST PLACES UNTIL DUSK OR SLIGHTLY
THEREAFTER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AS THE COLUMN COOLS QUICKER ALOFT.
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS WILL KICK IN TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY DEEPENS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES ROTATE THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY. STORM TOTALS STILL LOOK TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TAKING A NOSE DIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
READINGS FALLING BELOW FREEZING BY THIS EVENING...AND THEN INTO
THE 20S THROUGH TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE SIMILAR EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN BUT
DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST 72 HOURS OR SO OF THE
FORECAST. BROAD MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL IMPULSES
ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE. MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE
A LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE THAT MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY
WEATHER FOR THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS BOTH RUNS THE 0Z ECMWF
AND GFS HAVE DIVERGED FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS OF 24 HOUR
BACK. THE 0/06Z GFS HAS TRENDED FASTER...MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS...HARDLY PRODUCING ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE 0Z ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM...CARRYING A DEEPENING SFC
WAVE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. CONSEQUENTLY THE ECMWF
ADVERTISES A MORE FAVORABLE PATH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL AND CURRENTLY ADVERTISES SUCH. HOWEVER...OVERALL
CONFIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO RUN LOW WITH EITHER SOLUTION UNTIL
THERE IS BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016
A BAND OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PASSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING A QUICK DROP TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW. EAST OF THIS BAND...CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY
VFR. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY AND
THIS EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL CREATE MVFR CONDITIONS...AND IFR AT
TIMES...LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-111-
114-116.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ088-118-
120.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ104-106>110-112-113-115-117-119.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ087.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL/GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1016 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
HAVE UPDATED TO FINE TUNE THE TIMING OF THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP
HEADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ALSO BLENDED OBSERVED TEMPS
AND SKY CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 836 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ALREADY MOVING IN FROM
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THE
EAST. SNOW HAS BEEN MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...SO HAVE ALLOWED FOR MORE OF A SNOW MENTION THROUGH THE
REST OF THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RECOVER TO THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40...ALTHOUGH DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SHOWERS
AND THICKER CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN...THESE HIGHS MIGHT BE A BIT
GENEROUS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
VALLEY TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED IN THE PAST HOUR...HOWEVER
BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP RUNS...AM STILL CONCERNED FOR
SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN THE EAST POTENTIALLY ENDING UP WITH A
LIGHT GLAZE. AS SUCH...HAVE HOISTED A SHORT FUSE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. IF THE BETTER WARMING
TRENDS CONTINUE LIKE THEY HAVE IN THE PAST HOUR...THEN THIS WILL
LIKELY GET DROPPED BEFORE EXPIRING.
ONCE THIS FIRST BATCH OF RAIN DEPARTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THERE
WILL BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...UNTIL A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE LAPSE RATES STEEPEN UP
QUITE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER...WITH THE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S FOR MOST TODAY...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY HOLDING OFF FOR MOST PLACES UNTIL DUSK OR SLIGHTLY
THEREAFTER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AS THE COLUMN COOLS QUICKER ALOFT.
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS WILL KICK IN TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY DEEPENS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES ROTATE THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY. STORM TOTALS STILL LOOK TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TAKING A NOSE DIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
READINGS FALLING BELOW FREEZING BY THIS EVENING...AND THEN INTO
THE 20S THROUGH TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE SIMILAR EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN BUT
DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST 72 HOURS OR SO OF THE
FORECAST. BROAD MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL IMPULSES
ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE. MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE
A LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE THAT MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY
WEATHER FOR THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS BOTH RUNS THE 0Z ECMWF
AND GFS HAVE DIVERGED FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS OF 24 HOUR
BACK. THE 0/06Z GFS HAS TRENDED FASTER...MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS...HARDLY PRODUCING ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE 0Z ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM...CARRYING A DEEPENING SFC
WAVE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. CONSEQUENTLY THE ECMWF
ADVERTISES A MORE FAVORABLE PATH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL AND CURRENTLY ADVERTISES SUCH. HOWEVER...OVERALL
CONFIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO RUN LOW WITH EITHER SOLUTION UNTIL
THERE IS BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 836 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
THE PASSING COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT TEMPORARY IFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE
AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR BEHIND THE INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY...BEFORE CEILINGS DROP OFF ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THERE
MAY EVEN BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AT TIMES. INCOMING COLDER AIR WILL
THEN CHANGE ANY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS TOWARDS
DUSK...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL AVERAGE AT 5 TO 10 KTS OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH
TUESDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-111-
114-116.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ088-118-
120.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ104-106>110-112-113-115-117-119.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ087.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL/GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
836 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 836 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ALREADY MOVING IN FROM
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THE
EAST. SNOW HAS BEEN MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...SO HAVE ALLOWED FOR MORE OF A SNOW MENTION THROUGH THE
REST OF THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RECOVER TO THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40...ALTHOUGH DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SHOWERS
AND THICKER CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN...THESE HIGHS MIGHT BE A BIT
GENEROUS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
VALLEY TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED IN THE PAST HOUR...HOWEVER
BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP RUNS...AM STILL CONCERNED FOR
SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN THE EAST POTENTIALLY ENDING UP WITH A
LIGHT GLAZE. AS SUCH...HAVE HOISTED A SHORT FUSE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. IF THE BETTER WARMING
TRENDS CONTINUE LIKE THEY HAVE IN THE PAST HOUR...THEN THIS WILL
LIKELY GET DROPPED BEFORE EXPIRING.
ONCE THIS FIRST BATCH OF RAIN DEPARTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THERE
WILL BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...UNTIL A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE LAPSE RATES STEEPEN UP
QUITE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER...WITH THE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S FOR MOST TODAY...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY HOLDING OFF FOR MOST PLACES UNTIL DUSK OR SLIGHTLY
THEREAFTER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AS THE COLUMN COOLS QUICKER ALOFT.
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS WILL KICK IN TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY DEEPENS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES ROTATE THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY. STORM TOTALS STILL LOOK TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TAKING A NOSE DIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
READINGS FALLING BELOW FREEZING BY THIS EVENING...AND THEN INTO
THE 20S THROUGH TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE SIMILAR EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN BUT
DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST 72 HOURS OR SO OF THE
FORECAST. BROAD MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL IMPULSES
ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE. MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE
A LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE THAT MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY
WEATHER FOR THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS BOTH RUNS THE 0Z ECMWF
AND GFS HAVE DIVERGED FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS OF 24 HOUR
BACK. THE 0/06Z GFS HAS TRENDED FASTER...MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS...HARDLY PRODUCING ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE 0Z ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM...CARRYING A DEPENING SFC
WAVE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. CONSEQUENTLY THE ECMWF
ADVERTISES A MORE FAVORABLE PATH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL AND CURRENTLY ADVERTISES SUCH. HOWEVER...OVERALL
CONFIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO RUN LOW WITH EITHER SOLUTION UNTIL
THERE IS BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 836 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
THE PASSING COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT TEMPORARY IFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE
AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR BEHIND THE INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY...BEFORE CEILINGS DROP OFF ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THERE
MAY EVEN BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AT TIMES. INCOMING COLDER AIR WILL
THEN CHANGE ANY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS TOWARDS
DUSK...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL AVERAGE AT 5 TO 10 KTS OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH
TUESDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-111-
114-116.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ088-118-
120.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ104-106>110-112-113-115-117-119.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ087.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
555 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 555 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
Updated aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
The leading edge of a much colder air mass was pushing just east
of the forecast area early this morning. In the upper levels, a
deep area of low pressure was positioned over the Great Lakes
region. This low is forecast to push south into the Ohio Valley
over the next 24 to 36 hours as a blast of Arctic air wraps around
on the west side of the low. As a result, temperatures today will
fall through early morning--then should remain nearly steady or
continue a slow fall into the afternoon. Northwest winds will be
quite strong, with sustained readings of 15 to 20 mph and gusts as
high as 30 mph.
Moisture wrapping around the back side of the low will result in
scattered to numerous snow showers through the day. Across the
southern Pennyrile region of western Kentucky, a mix of rain or
snow is possible early on. But even there, temperatures by the
latter half of the morning should be cold enough for light snow.
The chance of snow showers will continue across most of the area
tonight, then gradually taper off from west to east on Tuesday.
Gradual clearing from west to east should follow Tuesday night and
Wednesday.
Overall, precipitation is forecast to be rather light, though
some bursts of moderate snow are certainly possible from time to
time. Any accumulation should be relatively minor and confined to
portions of southwest Indiana, southern Illinois, and western
Kentucky. As much as an inch is certainly possible over eastern
portions of the area. However, given the low moisture content and
wind-driven nature of this light powdery snow, we do not expect
much impact at this time.
Temperatures will remain bitterly cold through the short term.
In fact, highs are only forecast in the 20s across much of the
area Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night should drop into
the teens. With a persistent northwest wind, wind chill readings
by daybreak Wednesday are forecast from 5 below to 5 above zero.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 325 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
Much of the long term will continue to be categorized by a cold
weather regime as one Canadian high after another plunges southeast
into the Midwest and Ohio Valley region. Will need to keep an eye on
a possible area of low pressure in between the high pressure systems
that could pass through the region Thu night or Friday, but right
now it looks as though the bigger threat for precip will remain to
the east of our forecast area. What is seeming a bit more certain
now is that another chunk of cold Canadian air will be in store as
we head into next weekend. Latest 00Z operational GFS and ECMWF
advertise a 1045-1050 mb high pushing southeast toward the region by
Saturday. Writing seems to be on the wall that below normal winter
temps will be sticking around right into the middle of the month.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 600 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
Overcast and windy conditions are expected over the next 24 hours
with scattered light snow showers. At KCGI/KPAH, low VFR conditions
are expected through much of the forecast period. However, moderate
bursts of snow shower activity may reduce conditions to MVFR at
times. At KEVV/KOWB, conditions should be primarily MVFR. Northwest
winds around 15 knots will gust as high as 25 to 30 knots.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...RJP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
657 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
...Forecast Update...
Updated at 655 AM EST Mon Feb 8 2016
As of 645 am, radar imagery showed an area of light rain moving east
out of southeast Indiana/east central KY and another area of a mix
of rain/snow moving into southwest Indiana and west central KY.
Increased POPs to better depict these areas of precip moving through
this morning. The latest HRRR run has a good handle on it. The
second batch of precip is expected to stay a mix of rain/snow as it
moves through southern IN/central KY this morning, but it should
have little to no impact on the morning commute as sfc temps are
above freezing and will likely rise a bit after sunrise. Also road
temps are in the upper 30s/lower 40s which should prevent any travel
hazards this morning.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Mon Feb 8 2016
...Winter Weather Advisory this Evening - Tuesday Evening...
The biggest change for this forecast package will be to expand the
Winter Wx Advy westward into the Louisville Metro area. According
to the latest model data, a change over from rain to snow is still
expected this evening probably during the latter half of the evening
rush hour. Although snow shower activity will be hit and miss, the
latest WRFs and NAM indicate sct-numerous snow showers over our
region this evening. Soundings still exhibit a convective nature
with bursts of moderate snow reducing vsbys and causing quick, light
accums so feel the risk of impact to the evening rush warrants the
advisory expansion. The Winter Wx Advy expansion will extend from
Lake Cumberland region to Louisville Metro to Scott County, IN and
points eastward. According to the latest model data, this area also
has the best chance at seeing 2-2.5 day (Mon evening - Wed morning)
snow accums between 1-3 inches with the highest numbers still
expected in the Bluegrass region. Also, some of the latest model
data indicates a slightly longer period of light accumulating snow
into Wed morning especially across the Bluegrass region. A time
extension to the advisory was considered, but in coordination with
neighboring offices decided to hold off for now. Will need to
consider the time extension again though especially for our east
central KY counties and especially if Wed morning commute looks to
be impacted.
==================
Mon-Tues Overview
==================
An anomalous upper low over the Midwest with many shortwaves
rotating around it will cause on and off showery activity today
through Tues. With boundary layer temps in the upper 30s/lower 40s
through this afternoon, many locations will see mainly rain showers
this morning/afternoon. Colder air will filter into the region from
W to E across the area late afternoon through this evening changing
rain showers to snow showers. P-type will remain snow showers Mon
night-Tues as the cold airmass settles in the region. Model
soundings indicate that late this afternoon/evening and Tues
afternoon/evening may be time periods where snow shower intensity
increases to moderate in spots causing travel difficulties. Light
accumulating snows this evening through Tues look to total up to 2
inches. These accums will be spotty however in the showery regime.
Temps should top out in the mid 30s to lower 40s early-mid afternoon
today before taking a dive into the lower 30s this evening. Lows
tonight should drop into the lower 20s...possibly colder in
locations that see a light accumulation of snow this
evening/overnight. Highs for Tues will be limited to the mid to
upper 20s.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 325 AM EST Mon Feb 8 2016
Tuesday Night - Wednesday...
Light on and off snow showers will continue Tues night into Wed in
the active northwest flow although the upper trough will begin to
pull farther east of the region by mid week. As mentioned in the
short term discussion, the Winter Wx Advy may need a time extension
for east central KY as light accumulating snow will continue through
Wed am and may impact the Wed morning commute. Total snow accums
through Wed should range from 1-3 inches with some spots that get
missed seeing less than that and others that see repeated bouts of
snow showers seeing a little more than that. Low clouds and
flurries should stick around through much of the day Wed and into
Wed evening.
Temps will be quite chilly for mid week with highs on Wed only
reaching the lower 20s possibly some upper teens over southern IN.
Wed night lows will drop into the upper single digits and lower 10s
with winds chills near zero.
Thursday - Sunday...
Models diverge for the latter half of the week. Both the GFS/ECMWF
have a signal for a late week clipper. However, the GFS brings it
through on Thu/Thu night and the ECMWF brings it through on Fri/Fri
night. Will stick with low POPs in the Fri/Fri night time frame as
that has been the more consistent signal. Of note though, ECMWF has
a very robust clipper in that time frame and won`t totally buy that
intensity quite yet. Temps look to moderate a little for Thu/Fri
with highs in the 30s by Fri.
Sat/Sun look dry but another surge of cold air is apparent in the
long range models with the ECMWF being the coldest. Another
potential wintry weather system that has had a consistent signal in
the long range data may affect the Ohio Valley the following
Mon/Tues.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 615 AM EST Mon Feb 8 2016
A couple waves of precip, mainly rain, will move through central
Kentucky this morning, gradually moistening the low level dry
environment. VFR ceilings will lower throughout the day, dropping
into the MVFR range solidly this afternoon as the upper level system
passes overhead. Plan on scattered to numerous showers developing by
19-20z. This should be initially a rain/snow mix but go over to all
snow by 21z or so. Periods of IFR are expected in the heavier snow
showers. Precipitation should linger into the evening hours before
diminishing however lower ceilings will persist through the end of
the TAF period.
Winds will be out of the west for the entire period, gusting to near
20 kts this afternoon.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/ this afternoon
to 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ Tuesday for KYZ029>043-045>049-
054>057-065>067-077-078-081-082.
IN...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST
Tuesday for INZ078-079-091-092.
&&
$$
Update.........AMS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......ZT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
618 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH. VALLEY TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED IN THE PAST
HOUR...HOWEVER BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP RUNS...AM STILL
CONCERNED FOR SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN THE EAST POTENTIALLY
ENDING UP WITH A LIGHT GLAZE. AS SUCH...HAVE HOISTED A SHORT FUSE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. IF THE
BETTER WARMING TRENDS CONTINUE LIKE THEY HAVE IN THE PAST
HOUR...THEN THIS WILL LIKELY GET DROPPED BEFORE EXPIRING.
ONCE THIS FIRST BATCH OF RAIN DEPARTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THERE
WILL BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...UNTIL A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE LAPSE RATES STEEPEN UP
QUITE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER...WITH THE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S FOR MOST TODAY...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY HOLDING OFF FOR MOST PLACES UNTIL DUSK OR SLIGHTLY
THEREAFTER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AS THE COLUMN COOLS QUICKER ALOFT.
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS WILL KICK IN TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY DEEPENS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES ROTATE THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY. STORM TOTALS STILL LOOK TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TAKING A NOSE DIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
READINGS FALLING BELOW FREEZING BY THIS EVENING...AND THEN INTO
THE 20S THROUGH TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE SIMILAR EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN BUT
DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST 72 HOURS OR SO OF THE
FORECAST. BROAD MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL IMPULSES
ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE. MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE
A LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE THAT MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY
WEATHER FOR THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS BOTH RUNS THE 0Z ECMWF
AND GFS HAVE DIVERGED FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS OF 24 HOUR
BACK. THE 0/06Z GFS HAS TRENDED FASTER...MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS...HARDLY PRODUCING ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE 0Z ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM...CARRYING A DEPENING SFC
WAVE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. CONSEQUENTLY THE ECMWF
ADVERTISES A MORE FAVORABLE PATH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL AND CURRENTLY ADVERTISES SUCH. HOWEVER...OVERALL
CONFIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO RUN LOW WITH EITHER SOLUTION UNTIL
THERE IS BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING MAINLY RAIN TO THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH DAWN. THE RAIN BAND WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATE THROUGH 15Z...BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION. CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES
WILL DROP DOWN TO MVFR WITHIN THE MORE SUSTAINED RAIN INITIALLY.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY RAISE UP TOWARDS
15Z...BEFORE GRADUALLY DROPPING DOWN TO MVFR ONCE AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY EVEN BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AT TIMES.
INCOMING COLDER AIR WILL THEN CHANGE ANY RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW
SHOWERS TOWARDS DUSK...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-111-
114-116.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ088-118-
120.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ104-106>110-112-113-115-117-119.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ104-
106>109-111-112-114.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ087.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
457 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH. VALLEY TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED IN THE PAST
HOUR...HOWEVER BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP RUNS...AM STILL
CONCERNED FOR SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN THE EAST POTENTIALLY
ENDING UP WITH A LIGHT GLAZE. AS SUCH...HAVE HOISTED A SHORT FUSE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. IF THE
BETTER WARMING TRENDS CONTINUE LIKE THEY HAVE IN THE PAST
HOUR...THEN THIS WILL LIKELY GET DROPPED BEFORE EXPIRING.
ONCE THIS FIRST BATCH OF RAIN DEPARTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THERE
WILL BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...UNTIL A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE LAPSE RATES STEEPEN UP
QUITE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER...WITH THE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S FOR MOST TODAY...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY HOLDING OFF FOR MOST PLACES UNTIL DUSK OR SLIGHTLY
THEREAFTER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AS THE COLUMN COOLS QUICKER ALOFT.
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS WILL KICK IN TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY DEEPENS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES ROTATE THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY. STORM TOTALS STILL LOOK TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TAKING A NOSE DIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
READINGS FALLING BELOW FREEZING BY THIS EVENING...AND THEN INTO
THE 20S THROUGH TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING MAINLY RAIN TO THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH DAWN. THE RAIN BAND WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATE THROUGH 15Z...BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION. CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES
WILL DROP DOWN TO MVFR WITHIN THE MORE SUSTAINED RAIN INITIALLY.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY RAISE UP TOWARDS
15Z...BEFORE GRADUALLY DROPPING DOWN TO MVFR ONCE AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY EVEN BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AT TIMES.
INCOMING COLDER AIR WILL THEN CHANGE ANY RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW
SHOWERS TOWARDS DUSK...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-111-
114-116.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ088-118-
120.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ104-106>110-112-113-115-117-119.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ104-
106>109-111-112-114.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ087.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
413 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. VERY COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT THE
END OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
NORTHEAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW CHANCES THIS TERM. THE MAIN THING IN
QUESTION IS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. TOUGH FORECAST COMING UP.
LATEST 20Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD INTENSE SFC LOW SE OF NOVA SCOTIA
BOMBING OUT AND FILLING. REGIONAL RADAR, INCLUDING THE LATEST MRMS
SHOWED WESTERN EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD MOVING ONTO THE COAST AND
INTO PORTIONS OF INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE. THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE INCLUDING
THE RAP AND HRRR 3KM WERE DOING WELL W/THE PLACEMENT PER THE LATEST
RADAR ALONG W/THE 12Z REGIONAL CANADIAN GEM. 12Z UA ANALYSIS SHOWED
80-100 KT JET DIVING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW OVER GREAT LAKES WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER TROF TO SHARPEN AS IT SWINGS E. THE
TIMING FOR SNOW FURTHER N HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK AS WELL AS CUTTING
BACK ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BY AN INCH OR TWO. THE GUSTY NNE WINDS
WILL DROP OFF LATER THIS EVENING AS THE INTENSE LOW PULLS AWAY.
LLVL CONVERGENCE IN CONJUNCTION W/A DEVELOPING UPPER FRONT WILL
LEAD TO AN AREA OF SNOW ACROSS THE DOWNEAST THIS EVENING W/SOME
BRIEF HEAVY BANDS. SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING
THE MT. KATAHDIN REGIONAL LATER THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT LIFTS
NORTH. THE SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REST OF NORTHERN MAINE BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. DESPITE LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP FORECAST
TO BE 0.25 TO 0.50 FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, HIGHER SNOW
RATIOS(16-19:1) WILL LEAD TO SOME HIGHER SNOW TOTALS W/THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLUFFY SNOW. SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT A BRIEF
PERIOD DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH WHICH WOULD ENHANCE SNOWFALL FOR A
TIME. OVERALL ATTM, LOOKING FOR HIGHEST TOTALS(4-8 INCHES) ACROSS
DOWNEAST AND EASTERN SECTIONS AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS SUCH AS
PORTIONS OF PISCATAQUIS COUNTY AND MT. KATAHDIN. FURTHER N ACROSS
HOULTON ON UP THROUGH CARIBOU INTO THE ST. JOHN VALLEY, SNOWFALL
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 3-6 INCH RANGE.
SNOW WILL END ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS BY LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON AND LINGER LONGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS IN
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THAT A NNE WIND ACROSS THE ST. JOHN
VALLEY HAS HISTORY OF LEADING TO SOME UPSLOPE AND FORECAST QPF OF
AROUND 0.25", DECIDED TO ADD THE ST. JOHN VALLEY AND NORTHERN
SOMERSET INTO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY W/SNOW FORECAST OF UP TO
4 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL W/20S EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NORTHEAST AS WE GO INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD. MOISTURE WITHIN
THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WEAK SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SMALL AREAS
OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL STAY MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH. ONE LOW WILL
SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER SMALL LOW
SLIDING TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY. THE SMALL LOW ON THURSDAY MAY
TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST POSSIBLY GIVING A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS. OTHERWISE, ONLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AT THE END OF THE
WEEK WILL BRING VERY COLD AIR TO THE REGION. A SMALL LOW WHISKING OUT
TO SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MAY PRODUCE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION, AND POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW ALONG THE COAST. OTHERWISE, MAINLY DRY AND VERY COLD WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A NORTHWEST BREEZE SATURDAY AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY MAY REQUIRE WIND CHILL HEADLINES OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES SOUTH TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON
MONDAY AS A WEAK LOW MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS
CURRENTLY DIFFER WITH THE GFS BRINGING THIS LOW IN MONDAY AND THE
ECMWF BRINGING IT IN LATE TUESDAY. FOR NOW WILL BRING LOW CHANCES
FOR SNOW LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TO START THIS EVENING
AND THEN CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR. MVFR FOR KBGR GOING TO IFR
TONIGHT IN SNOW. KBHB ALREADY DOWN TO IFR AND COULD SEE PERIODS OF
LIFR TONIGHT. BLOWING SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR KBHB AND FOR KBGR
THIS EVENING. NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL BE MVFR TO IFR FOR TUESDAY
W/SNOW WHILE KBGR AND KBHB BEGIN TO IMPROVE TO MVFR BY THE
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH VARIABLE MID AND LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR ALONG THE COAST IN
A PERIOD OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH VFR TO
OCCASIONALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER, THERE IS A
SMALL POSSIBILITY LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MAY LOWER CONDITIONS TO
MVFR OR BRIEFLY IFR DOWNEAST ON SATURDAY IN LIGHT SNOW IF IT
TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WARNING STAYS UP THROUGH 10 PM. GUSTS AVERAGING 35
TO 40 KTS ATTM. BUOYS REPORTED 45+ KTS EARLIER TODAY BUT AS THE
LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY, THE GRADIENT WILL LOOSEN W/WINDS
DROPPING OFF BELOW 35 KTS LATER THIS EVENING. THE EVENING CREW
WILL MOST LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THINGS BACK TO SCA LEVELS. WIND
DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE NNW OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 11 TO 14 FOOT RANGE THIS EVENING
AND THEN ARE FORECAST TO DROP BACK BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A
SWELL GENERATION IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY W/PERIODS OF 10-13 SECONDS.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH SCA LATE THURSDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA ON FRIDAY. AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED
SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY AND FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES MAY NEED
TO BE ISSUED OVER THE WEEKEND AS VERY COLD AIR MOVES OVER THE
WATERS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN EXTRA-TROPICAL STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1-1.5 FT IS EXPECTED LATER
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. HIGH TIDE TONIGHT IS AROUND 11
PM AND AROUND 11 AM ON TUESDAY. TIDES ARE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED SURGE AND THE WAVES OF 10-13 FT COULD LEAD TO SOME
SPLASH-OVER AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE MORE SO ON TUESDAY.
COLLABORATED W/GYX AND DECIDED TO GO W/A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR MEZ002-004>006-010.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR MEZ001-003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ011-
015>017-031-032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...HEWITT/BLOOMER
MARINE...HEWITT/BLOOMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
155 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL PASS WELL EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY. A VERY
COLD AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
145 PM UPDATE...FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE SKY TO BRING MOVE
CLOUDS FURTHER N AND BRING TIMING OF SNOW IN A BIT QUICKER OVER
THE DOWNEAST ESPECIALLY THE COAST. HRRR 3KM AND RAP DOING WELL
W/THE PLACEMENT OF RADAR RETURNS/PRECIP AND PLACEMENT OF LOW
PASSING S OF NOVA SCOTIA. GETTING REPORTS OF SNOW ALONG THE COAST
ATTM W/SOME REPORTS OF MODERATE SNOW. MRMS & CBW RADAR SHOWED
HIGHER RETURNS(25-30DBZ)PULLING WNW ONTO THE DOWNEAST COAST.
ADJUSTED THE 6HRLY SNOWFALL UPWARD BY AND INCH FOR THE COAST
THROUGH 00Z. ATTM, HEADLINES STAY AS THEY ARE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS HAVE THE LOW PASSING ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF HALIFAX,
NS AT 06Z TONIGHT. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES NOSING DOWN INTO
MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
MID LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE STORM WILL LIFT EAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT, BUT WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING BACK ACROSS
MAINE TO ANOTHER LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ALONG
THE COAST AROUND MIDDAY TODAY AND WILL SPREAD NORTH TO THE GREATER
BANGOR AREA AROUND 3 OR 4 PM. THE SNOW WILL LIFT NORTH TO THE
SAINT JOHN VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. A STRONG GRADIENT ALONG THE
COAST WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. WILL WILL
EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES NORTH, BUT WILL LEAVE THE FAR
NORTHWEST (NW AROOSTOOK AND NORTHERN SOMERSET) OUT OF THE
ADVISORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STEADY SNFL TUE MORN WILL WIND DOWN FROM S TO N ACROSS THE FA BY
TUE AFTN...TAPERING TO LIGHTER SN SHWRS. ALTHOUGH WE DID XTND WNTR
WX ADVS NWRD INTO N CNTRL AND FAR NE PTNS OF THE FA BASED ON
NEARLY ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING EVENT TOTAL QPF REACHING
OR EXCEEDING 0.30 INCHES...THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL TYPE OF A MAJOR
SFC LOW TRACKING WELL S OF NOVA SCOTIA WITH SFC RIDGING XTNDG SWRD
FROM LABRADOR INTO NW ME NOT MATCHING THIS MUCH FCST QPF. WE
BELIEVE A WEAK E-W...SLOWLY NWRD LIFTING SFC-700 MB TROF ACROSS
THE REGION IS PROVIDING THE FOCUS OF STEADY SNFL MON NGT THRU TUE
MORN. SO CONFIDENCE OF SN TOTALS IS NOT HIGH. SAYING THIS OUR FCST
SN TOTALS WITH THIS UPDATE ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE 50 PERCENT
THRESHOLD OF ENSEMBLE BASED FCST SNFL ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS
A FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE FCST GIVEN THAT WE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THIS
EVENT FOR THE ISSUANCE OF WNTR WX ADV HDLNS.
FOLLOWING STEADY SNFL...CLDY SKIES AND SCT SN SHWRS WILL CONT LATE
TUE AFTN THRU THU AS OTHER UPPER TROFS FROM THE GREAT LKS CROSS
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE MILDER TUE THRU THU MORN...THEN TURN
COLDER THU AFTN FOLLOWING AN ARCTIC FRONT BEHIND THE LAST SIG
UPPER TROF.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFT A BRIEF BREAK THU NGT INTO FRI MORN...A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR IS LIKELY GOING TO MOVE INTO THE FA FOR LATER FRI INTO
THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP MID LVL VORTEX MOVES FROM NRN CAN TOWARD THE
CAN MARITIMES. THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS IS MUCH COLDER WITH 925-850MB
TEMPS (BY 5 TO 10 DEG C) THAN THE 00Z ECMWF DURING THIS
PD...SUBSEQUENTLY...OUR FCST HI/LOW TEMPS BASED ON A BLEND OF
MODELS IS NOT AS COLD AS THE GFS WOULD IMPLY BY ITSELF...AND ALSO
KEEPING IN MIND...THAT WE HAVE HAD NOT HAD ANY HI RESIDENCE ARCTIC
AIR MASSES FROM NRN CAN REACHING OUR LATITUDE SO FAR THIS WINTER.
FOR NOW...WE ARE NOT EMPHASIZING THE SFC LOW THE 00Z ECMWF WINDS
UP IN THE GULF OF ME ON SAT ATTM SINCE IT IS NOT BACKED UP BY THE
00Z ECMWF ESBM...BUT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH OUT FOR AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL START OFF VFR AT ALL TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR AND AT TIMES VLIFR
AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL LOWER
TO MVFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS EVENING AND TO IFR AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES IN STEADY FALLING SN TUE
MORN WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR IN SN SHWRS FROM S TO N TUE AFTN INTO
EVE...THEN IMPROVE TO VFR DOWNEAST SITES WITH SCT FLURRIES WED
AND CONT TIL FRI WHILE NRN TAF SITES CONT MVFR WITH SCT SN SHWRS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WILL
NEED TO BE TRANSITIONED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WHEN THE GALES
COME DOWN TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: AT OR JUST BLO SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONT THRU THE MID
TO LATE WEEK...WITH SEAS HIGHEST TUE MORN FOLLOWING THE ENDING OF
THE GALE PD AS STRONG LOW PRES EXITS INTO THE OPEN N ATLC. KEPT
CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV HTS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FZG
SPY...WITH LGT AMOUNTS POSSIBLE TUE MORN ACROSS THE INNER
BAY/HARBOR MZ052. HEAVIER FZG SPY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE WEEK
INTO HE WEEKEND WHEN MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY CROSS THE
WATERS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN EXTRA-TROPICAL STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON, AND TIDES ARE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH. THE STORM SURGE IS
EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND THE TIME OF LOW TIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME VERY MINOR SPLASH-OVER AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE IS
POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING, BUT BECAUSE THE PEAK STORM SURGE
CORRESPONDS TO TIME OF LOW TIDE THERE ARE UNLIKELY TO BE ANY
SIGNIFICANT ISSUES.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING FOR ONLY
THE 6TH TIME THIS WINTER AT CARIBOU. THIS IS THE FEWEST TIMES
THROUGH FEB 8TH THAT THE TEMPERATURE HAS DROPPED BELOW ZERO AT
CARIBOU SINCE 1940. DURING THE WINTER OF 2001-2002, THE
TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW ZERO ONLY 9 TIMES BY THIS POINT IN THE
SEASON.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR MEZ002-004>006-010.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ011-
015>017-031-032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1026 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1026 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW TROF DEEPENING INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. WITH TROF CONTINUING TO DEEPEN...
MODELS SHOW 12HR 500MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 20-80M ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR/UPPER MI DURING THE NIGHT...GREATEST OVER THE E HALF OF THE
AREA. UPSTREAM...12Z CWPL SOUNDING SHOWED A SHARP INVERSION AT ABOUT
875MB WHERE TEMP WAS -28C. 00Z CWPL SOUNDING SHOWED THAT THE
INVERSION HAD WEAKENED WITH A DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER NOW PRESENT FROM
AROUND 900MB TO AROUND 760MB. MOISTURE DEPTH HAS ALSO INCREASED TO
AROUND 760MB/6300FT. THERE HAS BEEN RATHER PERSISTENT 28+DBZ RETURNS
IN THE ONGOING SNOW BANDS EAST OF MARQUETTE...INDICATING 1+IN/HR
SNOW RATES. SINCE DEEPENING TROF AND UPSTREAM 00Z CWPL SOUNDING
SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN LES INTENSITY OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING...
LES WARNING HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTIES. SEEMS
REASONABLE THAT SOME AREAS WILL REACH/EXCEED 8IN/12HR OR 12IN/24HR
WARNING CRITERIA FOR HIGH SLR SNOWFALL.
18Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND HOURLY HRRR/RAP RUNS INDICATE SLIGHT VEERING
OF WINDS DURING THE NIGHT/WED MORNING WHICH WOULD SHIFT MDT/HVY SNOW
WESTWARD INTO MORE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE COUNTY. WIND
FIELDS ACTUALLY LOOK QUITE FAVORABLE FOR DECENT SNOW AS N WIND OVER
THE LAKE ENCOUNTERS BACKED WIND OVER THE LAND. HAVE PAINTED 24HR
SNOW AMOUNTS ENDING 00Z THU OF 8 TO LOCALLY 12IN IN THAT AREA...BUT
GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF HVY SNOW SO FAR THIS EVENING IN EASTERN
MARQUETTE COUNTY...THE AREA AROUND SKANDIA/CARLSHEND WILL PROBABLY
END UP WITH THE MOST SNOW...14IN OR MORE DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE
BAND LINGERS BEFORE SHIFTING W. IN ALGER COUNTY...RAN WARNING THRU
PREVIOUS ADVY TIMEFRAME....THOUGH SNOWFALL AFTER WED MORNING
PROBABLY WON`T REQUIRE ANYTHING MORE THAN ADVY. EXPECT GREATEST SNOW
TOTALS IN ALGER COUNTY TO BE IN THE WRN PORTION OF THE COUNTY.
FINALLY...WITH BLSN...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...
THERE WILL NO DOUBT BE BRIEF WHITE-OUTS IN THE BANDS OF HVY SNOW.
OUT W...ENHANCING FACTORS INFLUENCING THE SNOW INTENSITY INTO NCNTRL
UPPER MI WILL BE WEAKER OVER WRN UPPER MI...SO NO MEANINGFUL CHANGES
WERE MADE TO FCST THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND
A CLOSED 500 MB LOW IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH A TROUGH IN THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. NAM
SHOWS DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING
OUT OF THE ERN CWA TONIGHT.
WINDS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH AND NEITHER DOES THE COLD AIR AMOUNT
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...SO PERSISTENCE IS THE WAY TO GO WITH
THIS FORECAST. LOOKED AT 950 MB CONVERGENCE WINDS AND THEY STAY
STRONG UNTIL WED AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ACROSS MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES AND FOR THIS
REASON...EXTENDED THE ADVISORY FOR ALGER AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES
UNTIL 00Z WED AND WILL GO WITH AN ADVISORY FOR ONTONAGON AND GOGEBIC
COUNTIES AND KEEP NORTHERN HOUGHTON AND KEWEENAW COUNTIES IN AN
ADVISORY THROUGH THEN. LOOKING AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...INVERSION
HEIGHTS REMAIN BELOW 500 FEET THROUGH THIS WHOLE FORECAST PERIOD AS
WELL. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE MANY BIG CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST
EXCEPT DID BUMP UP SNOW AND QPF AMOUNTS A BIT IN NORTHERLY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BELTS AND HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS IN THOSE AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
NNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING OUT OF THE
NW THURSDAY MORNING AND REMAINING OUT OF A MAINLY NW DIRECTION
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. 850MB TEMPS STARTING OUT AROUND -22C...AND
ONLY BRIEFLY MODERATE SLIGHTLY TO AROUND -10C THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MUCH COOLER AIR SLIDES BACK IN FOR FRIDAY. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL
CONSIST OF A TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AS COLD/STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SINKS ACROSS MANITOBA AND THE E
DAKOTAS/MN.
SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING DIGGING SSE ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL VEER LOW-LEVEL WINDS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN MARQUETTE AND AU TRAIN. WITH GUSTY NNW WINDS AND
THERMO PROFILES STILL SUPPORTIVE OF MODEST LES...HAVE OPTED TO
EXTENDED THE LES ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST ALGER COUNTY THROUGH WED
NIGHT.
ENHANCING THE CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE A TROUGH
SET UP ACROSS THE NW ONTARIO BORDER WITH MANITOBA AT 18Z THURSDAY.
EXPECT THE TROUGH TO SINK ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE THE SFC TROUGH ITSELF PUSHES OVER FAR SE PORTIONS OF
ONTARIO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A LINGERING THERMALLY-INDUCED TROUGH OVER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL AGAIN ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
FOCUS LES INTO ALGER COUNTY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. WITH A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO THE IMPINGING HIGH PRES...WINDS LOOKS TO BE
QUITE GUSTY THUR NIGHT INTO SAT. WHILE SPECIFICS ARE A BIT MUDDLED
AT THIS TIME...LES ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY BE PRESENT AGAIN WITH THE
COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND FOCUSED LES BANDS.
A RATHER COLD 850MB CORE OF -30C WILL BRUSH THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE TRENDED TEMPS DOWNWARD A FEW DEGREES
DURING THIS PERIOD. WITH COLD TEMPS AND GUSTY WINDS...WIND CHILLS
WILL NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT.
LES QUICKLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST AS A SFC RIDGE CROSSES THE CWA SAT
NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE SETTING UP FOR QUITE A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE ONE CAVEAT FOR VERY COLD CONDITION
WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HAVE TRENDED TEMPS
DOWNWARD...WITH TEENS BELOW ZERO INTERIOR WEST. AFTER DRY CONDITIONS
ON SUNDAY...TROUGHING WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
UNDER A NNW FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THE RULE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST
PERIOD...AND TYPICAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...CONDITIONS WILL BE
HIGHLY VARIABLE. PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE IFR...BUT
EXPECT PERIODS OF LIFR AND MVFR. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AND A FALLING
INVERSION SHOULD LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS WED AFTN WITH A TREND
TO PREVAILING MVFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING OVER NORTH CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR. NEXT GALES LOOK TO BE THU NIGHT AND FRI ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR AS NEXT SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVE IN AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP AGAIN. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH THE
HEAVIEST FREEZING SPRAY INTO WED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY
FOR MIZ001>003-009.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ006.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LSZ265>267.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY
FOR LSZ162-263-264.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROLFSON
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF/KLUBER
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1151 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND A TROUGH FROM
NRN ONTARIO THROUGH THE WRN LAKES. A MID LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER
WRN WI WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING ON ITS N AND NW FLANK
FROM NE MN THROUGH THE WRN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI INTO
NW WI. AT THE SFC...NRLY WINDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS W UPPER MI AS
LOW PRES OVER CNTRL UPPER MI SLOWLY MOVES TO THE E. CAA BEHIND THE
LOW HAS DROPPED 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -10C OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN LAKE ENHANCED SNOW...ESPECIALLY WHERE
UPSLOPE FLOW IS STRONGEST. OTHERWISE...TEMPS REMAINED NEAR 32F
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA.
TODAY...AS THE SFC LOW SLIDES TO THE SE INTO LOWER MI...EXPECT NRLY
WINDS BEHIND THE LOW TO BRING COLDER AIR THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER
MI WITH FALLING TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER THE N TO NNW FLOW
SNOWBELTS AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE -12C TO -16C RANGE. SO...THE
WINTER WX ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED INTO THE KEWEENAW WHERE ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REST OF THE CWA.
TONIGHT...INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT LES FOR N TO NNW FLOW LOCATIONS
WILL INCREASE AS 850 MB TEMP FALL INTO THE -14C TO -18C RANGE. THIS
WILL ALSO LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SLR VALUES TO NEAR 25/1 AS THE DGZ
WILL BE SITUATED IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEST WITH 1
TO 3 INCHES N CNTRL WHERE THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATER. ADDITIONAL
SNOW OVER THE REST OF THE AREA OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW SLIDES SLOWLY EAST TO NEAR LAKE HURON BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF THE U.P. IN NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY COOL ON CAA INTO THE
AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -22C/-25C BY TUESDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HAPPEN AS A SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SHOT OF COLD AIR SLIDE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...HEAVIEST IN THE NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WOULD BE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE FAR WEST AND THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST.
THIS TRANSITION WILL FOLLOW THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND MUCH COLDER AIR
WORKING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL BE IN A
DEEPER LAYER OF THE DGZ EARLY IN THE MORNING OVER THE WEST WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 4-6KFT. MOST OF THE MOISTURE
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL BE BELOW 3-4KFT WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT OVER THE WEST. THE DGZ WILL BECOME MUCH
SHALLOWER THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE FAR WEST AS THE VERY CHILLY AIR
SLIDES IN ALOFT. NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE U.P. WILL
SEE THE DEEP MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND THROUGH THE DAY WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS STAYING AROUND 5-7KFT AND A DEEPER CONVECTIVE
CLOUD LAYER IN THE DGZ. THIS SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE MODERATE SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THESE AREA GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGER SNOWFLAKE SIZES. TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
MUCH COLDER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD LAYER ACROSS THE U.P. COLDER THAN THE IDEAL DGZ...WHICH WILL
PROVIDE MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES AND LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. THE
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN COULD SEE ANOTHER 1 TO 4 INCHES TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE NORTH CENTRAL 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST
TOTALS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE AND BARAGA
COUNTIES. LATER SHIFTS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO EXPAND THE ADVISORIES
EASTWARD INTO BARAGA...MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES FOR THE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN DUG IN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. THE CHILLY AIR AT 850MB WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THE
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE LAYER WERE IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY
TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL
CANADA. WILL STILL SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH
DIMINISHED RATE...FOR MORE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER
TO THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE ON THE INFLECTION POINT
BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/EC
ARE SHOWING A 500MB CLOSED LOW SLIDING ACROSS HUDSON BAY THURSDAY
NIGHT TO CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS
HAPPENS...EXPECT A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE WRAPPING THROUGH THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED AREAS.
AGAIN...WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE SLIDING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE
U.P. PLACED THE BETTER CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THOSE AREAS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SNOW SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH THOUGH AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR MOVING IN WILL PRESS THE FAVORED DGZ
DOWN TO THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IT WILL BE FAIRLY
SHALLOW TOO.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT WHICH IS
NOT UNCOMMON FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE GFS
TRIES TO BRING A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE EC PUSHES A SURFACE
RIDGE AND BRIEF UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD. AT THIS POINT WENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS
GIVING ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
AS A CYCLONIC NNW FLOW OF COLD AIR PERSISTS ACROSS WRN UPPER MI
THROUGH TONIGHT...EXPECT SN AND MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO
PREDOMINATE. THERE MAY BE A FEW PERIODS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT SAW WHERE THE NNW WINDS WILL BE LESS
FAVORABLE FOR THE STRONGER LAKE ENHANCED OR LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER N LOWER MI
TODAY...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY. THE RESULT MARINE WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS TO 20 TO
30KNOTS WITH AND GALES TO 35KTS OVER N CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY-
TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE E
HALF TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH
THE HEAVIEST FREEZING SPRAY FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE N PLAINS TUESDAY SLOWLY
GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO
SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE START OF THE NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
MIZ001>003-009.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
LSZ264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
657 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND A TROUGH FROM
NRN ONTARIO THROUGH THE WRN LAKES. A MID LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER
WRN WI WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING ON ITS N AND NW FLANK
FROM NE MN THROUGH THE WRN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI INTO
NW WI. AT THE SFC...NRLY WINDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS W UPPER MI AS
LOW PRES OVER CNTRL UPPER MI SLOWLY MOVES TO THE E. CAA BEHIND THE
LOW HAS DROPPED 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -10C OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN LAKE ENHANCED SNOW...ESPECIALLY WHERE
UPSLOPE FLOW IS STRONGEST. OTHERWISE...TEMPS REMAINED NEAR 32F
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA.
TODAY...AS THE SFC LOW SLIDES TO THE SE INTO LOWER MI...EXPECT NRLY
WINDS BEHIND THE LOW TO BRING COLDER AIR THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER
MI WITH FALLING TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER THE N TO NNW FLOW
SNOWBELTS AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE -12C TO -16C RANGE. SO...THE
WINTER WX ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED INTO THE KEWEENAW WHERE ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REST OF THE CWA.
TONIGHT...INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT LES FOR N TO NNW FLOW LOCATIONS
WILL INCREASE AS 850 MB TEMP FALL INTO THE -14C TO -18C RANGE. THIS
WILL ALSO LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SLR VALUES TO NEAR 25/1 AS THE DGZ
WILL BE SITUATED IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEST WITH 1
TO 3 INCHES N CNTRL WHERE THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATER. ADDITIONAL
SNOW OVER THE REST OF THE AREA OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW SLIDES SLOWLY EAST TO NEAR LAKE HURON BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF THE U.P. IN NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY COOL ON CAA INTO THE
AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -22C/-25C BY TUESDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HAPPEN AS A SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SHOT OF COLD AIR SLIDE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...HEAVIEST IN THE NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WOULD BE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE FAR WEST AND THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST.
THIS TRANSITION WILL FOLLOW THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND MUCH COLDER AIR
WORKING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL BE IN A
DEEPER LAYER OF THE DGZ EARLY IN THE MORNING OVER THE WEST WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 4-6KFT. MOST OF THE MOISTURE
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL BE BELOW 3-4KFT WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT OVER THE WEST. THE DGZ WILL BECOME MUCH
SHALLOWER THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE FAR WEST AS THE VERY CHILLY AIR
SLIDES IN ALOFT. NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE U.P. WILL
SEE THE DEEP MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND THROUGH THE DAY WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS STAYING AROUND 5-7KFT AND A DEEPER CONVECTIVE
CLOUD LAYER IN THE DGZ. THIS SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE MODERATE SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THESE AREA GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGER SNOWFLAKE SIZES. TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
MUCH COLDER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD LAYER ACROSS THE U.P. COLDER THAN THE IDEAL DGZ...WHICH WILL
PROVIDE MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES AND LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. THE
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN COULD SEE ANOTHER 1 TO 4 INCHES TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE NORTH CENTRAL 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST
TOTALS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE AND BARAGA
COUNTIES. LATER SHIFTS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO EXPAND THE ADVISORIES
EASTWARD INTO BARAGA...MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES FOR THE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN DUG IN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. THE CHILLY AIR AT 850MB WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THE
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE LAYER WERE IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY
TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL
CANADA. WILL STILL SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH
DIMINISHED RATE...FOR MORE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER
TO THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE ON THE INFLECTION POINT
BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/EC
ARE SHOWING A 500MB CLOSED LOW SLIDING ACROSS HUDSON BAY THURSDAY
NIGHT TO CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS
HAPPENS...EXPECT A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE WRAPPING THROUGH THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED AREAS.
AGAIN...WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE SLIDING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE
U.P. PLACED THE BETTER CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THOSE AREAS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SNOW SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH THOUGH AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR MOVING IN WILL PRESS THE FAVORED DGZ
DOWN TO THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IT WILL BE FAIRLY
SHALLOW TOO.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT WHICH IS
NOT UNCOMMON FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE GFS
TRIES TO BRING A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE EC PUSHES A SURFACE
RIDGE AND BRIEF UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD. AT THIS POINT WENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS
GIVING ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
AS A CYCLONIC NNW FLOW OF COLD AIR PERSISTS ACROSS WRN UPPER MI
THROUGH TONIGHT...EXPECT SN AND MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO
PREDOMINATE. THERE MAY BE A FEW PERIODS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT SAW WHERE THE NNW WINDS WILL BE LESS
FAVORABLE FOR THE STRONGER LAKE ENHANCED OR LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER N LOWER MI
TODAY...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY. THE RESULT MARINE WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS TO 20 TO
30KNOTS WITH AND GALES TO 35KTS OVER N CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY-
TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE E
HALF TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH
THE HEAVIEST FREEZING SPRAY FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE N PLAINS TUESDAY SLOWLY
GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO
SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE START OF THE NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
MIZ001>003-009.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
LSZ264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
522 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND A TROUGH FROM
NRN ONTARIO THROUGH THE WRN LAKES. A MID LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER
WRN WI WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING ON ITS N AND NW FLANK
FROM NE MN THROUGH THE WRN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI INTO
NW WI. AT THE SFC...NRLY WINDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS W UPPER MI AS
LOW PRES OVER CNTRL UPPER MI SLOWLY MOVES TO THE E. CAA BEHIND THE
LOW HAS DROPPED 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -10C OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN LAKE ENHANCED SNOW...ESPECIALLY WHERE
UPSLOPE FLOW IS STRONGEST. OTHERWISE...TEMPS REMAINED NEAR 32F
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA.
TODAY...AS THE SFC LOW SLIDES TO THE SE INTO LOWER MI...EXPECT NRLY
WINDS BEHIND THE LOW TO BRING COLDER AIR THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER
MI WITH FALLING TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER THE N TO NNW FLOW
SNOWBELTS AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE -12C TO -16C RANGE. SO...THE
WINTER WX ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED INTO THE KEWEENAW WHERE ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REST OF THE CWA.
TONIGHT...INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT LES FOR N TO NNW FLOW LOCATIONS
WILL INCREASE AS 850 MB TEMP FALL INTO THE -14C TO -18C RANGE. THIS
WILL ALSO LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SLR VALUES TO NEAR 25/1 AS THE DGZ
WILL BE SITUATED IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEST WITH 1
TO 3 INCHES N CNTRL WHERE THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATER. ADDITIONAL
SNOW OVER THE REST OF THE AREA OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW SLIDES SLOWLY EAST TO NEAR LAKE HURON BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF THE U.P. IN NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY COOL ON CAA INTO THE
AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -22C/-25C BY TUESDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HAPPEN AS A SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SHOT OF COLD AIR SLIDE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...HEAVIEST IN THE NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WOULD BE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE FAR WEST AND THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST.
THIS TRANSITION WILL FOLLOW THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND MUCH COLDER AIR
WORKING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL BE IN A
DEEPER LAYER OF THE DGZ EARLY IN THE MORNING OVER THE WEST WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 4-6KFT. MOST OF THE MOISTURE
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL BE BELOW 3-4KFT WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT OVER THE WEST. THE DGZ WILL BECOME MUCH
SHALLOWER THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE FAR WEST AS THE VERY CHILLY AIR
SLIDES IN ALOFT. NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE U.P. WILL
SEE THE DEEP MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND THROUGH THE DAY WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS STAYING AROUND 5-7KFT AND A DEEPER CONVECTIVE
CLOUD LAYER IN THE DGZ. THIS SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE MODERATE SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THESE AREA GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGER SNOWFLAKE SIZES. TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
MUCH COLDER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD LAYER ACROSS THE U.P. COLDER THAN THE IDEAL DGZ...WHICH WILL
PROVIDE MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES AND LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. THE
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN COULD SEE ANOTHER 1 TO 4 INCHES TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE NORTH CENTRAL 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST
TOTALS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE AND BARAGA
COUNTIES. LATER SHIFTS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO EXPAND THE ADVISORIES
EASTWARD INTO BARAGA...MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES FOR THE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN DUG IN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. THE CHILLY AIR AT 850MB WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THE
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE LAYER WERE IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY
TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL
CANADA. WILL STILL SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH
DIMINISHED RATE...FOR MORE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER
TO THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE ON THE INFLECTION POINT
BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/EC
ARE SHOWING A 500MB CLOSED LOW SLIDING ACROSS HUDSON BAY THURSDAY
NIGHT TO CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS
HAPPENS...EXPECT A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE WRAPPING THROUGH THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED AREAS.
AGAIN...WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE SLIDING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE
U.P. PLACED THE BETTER CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THOSE AREAS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SNOW SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH THOUGH AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR MOVING IN WILL PRESS THE FAVORED DGZ
DOWN TO THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IT WILL BE FAIRLY
SHALLOW TOO.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT WHICH IS
NOT UNCOMMON FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE GFS
TRIES TO BRING A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE EC PUSHES A SURFACE
RIDGE AND BRIEF UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD. AT THIS POINT WENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS
GIVING ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
AS A CYC NNW FLOW OF COLDER AIR OVERSRPEADS WRN UPR MI EARLY THIS
MRNG AND PERSISTS THRU TNGT...EXPECT SN AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO
PREDOMINATE AT CMX AND IWD. AT SAW...SOME LLVL DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE
00Z GRB RAOB MAY BRING A FEW HRS OF VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MRNG
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MSTR/DYNAMIC FORCING CAUSES SOME STEADY
SN AND IFR CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK. WITH A LESS FAVORABLE NNW WIND
AND THE EXIT OF THE DEEPEST MSTR...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO
MVFR AT SAW THIS AFTN/EVNG.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER N LOWER MI
TODAY...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY. THE RESULT MARINE WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS TO 20 TO
30KNOTS WITH AND GALES TO 35KTS OVER N CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY-
TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE E
HALF TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH
THE HEAVIEST FREEZING SPRAY FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE N PLAINS TUESDAY SLOWLY
GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO
SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE START OF THE NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
MIZ001>003-009.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
LSZ264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
853 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
.UPDATE:
Issued at 839 PM CST Tue Feb 9 2016
Radar is showing a few light snow showers currently moving
through the metro area likely just ahead of a weak vort max seen
on water vapor imagery. Have added isolated flurries to the
southern and eastern parts of the CWA for the mid and late evening
hours. Otherwise there will be some clearing tonight before
additional cloudiness moves back into the area by daybreak.
Otherwise going lows look on track based on temperature trends.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 345 PM CST Tue Feb 9 2016
Scattered flurries will continue for the rest of the afternoon under
the strato-cu deck. There is a clearing slot running down the west
side of the Mississippi River down almost to the Missouri River. The
clouds should continue to break up...although RAP and NAM soundings
show plenty of low level moisture trapped under an inversion into
the evening. Think most of the area should be clear of the low
clouds by 06Z...though south central Illinois counties will likely
stay under the clouds into Wednesday morning. Cold advection on
northwest flow will continue tonight into early Wednesday. Think
guidance temperatures in the single digits to mid teens look good
for lows tonight.
Focus turns to storm system developing on Wednesday. This look to
be a purely warm advection/frontogenesis snow. GFS, ECMWF and NAM
are showing some pretty high values of warm advection...between 30
to 50 degrees C/12hr. Forecast soundings show the moist layer
extending up into the dendritic growth zone with a decent amount of
lift through that layer as well. Looks like the snow will hold off
until mid-late afternoon. Due to the cold atmosphere and lift in
the best snow-growth zone, expect this will be a fluffy snow which
will accumulate pretty quickly...especially since highs will stay
well below freezing.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 345 PM CST Tue Feb 9 2016
Model guidance continues to improve its consensus for the track and
impact on the storm system expected to be ongoing early Wednesday
evening. The consensus track for max QPF stretches from north-
central MO thru the southwestern half of the STL metro area and
towards Cape Girardeau, MO. The WAA associated with this event is
expected to be intense and will probably result in rapid onset and
development which, again, should be ongoing by sundown Wednesday
evening. WAA remains intense thru much of Wednesday evening with
lift continuing well into the overnight hours, and for this reason,
will keep a mention of pcpn thru the nighttime hours with this
package. A fairly broad stripe of up to 1" of new snow accum is now
looking possible with this system, with near 2" potential in its
core/peak QPF track. If the WAA continues to be advertised as
intense with this system, these snow amounts, especially in the core
track, will probably need to be bumped up further due to high
anticipated snow to liquid ratios, when light winds are taken into
account from the surface RIDGE being over our region and a cold low-
mid level column.
Another system, of a more classic clipper variety, may impact our
region on late Thursday night into Friday, but the track for this
continues to be more to the northeast thru southern IA into central
IL, with only a modest mention of flurries or low PoPs justified at
this time.
Otherwise, a prolonged period of below average temps is forecast
from now thru the upcoming weekend, with very little moderation
expected in temps on Friday before the next shot of Arctic air
descends on our region for the weekend. Only by early next week
does the persistent RIDGE over the western CONUS begin to translate
eastward and could mean a return to average to even above average
temps at some point next week.
It is near this transition period Sunday-Monday that another system
is expected to impact our region. The GFS has finally come onboard
with the more consistent EC and GEM solutions but the nature of this
system is far from settled, with its initial onset possibly as early
as Saturday night and it may be completely done by Monday now. This
earlier timing would certainly favor an all snow event, with more
average temps for mid-February set to return on the heels of this
event. With the main storm still well over the north Pacific, there
is much that can go wrong or change and something to stay tuned for.
But as it stands now, could see widespread advisory criteria
snowfall.
TES
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 536 PM CST Tue Feb 9 2016
Expect dry and VFR conditions through Wednesday morning before snow
showers moves into the area from the northwest. These snow showers
should cause visibilities to lower into MVFR or IFR range at
times by late afternoon or early evening with snow accumulations
of 1 inch or possibly greater requiring snow clearing operations.
Temperatures will range from the teens at KUIN to the the lower-
mid 20s at KCOU and the St. Louis area terminals late tomorrow
afternoon.
Specifics for KSTL: Expect dry and VFR conditions through mid
afternoon before snow showers move into the terminal from the
northwest. Visibilities will fall into the MVFR range during the
afternoon and the IFR range by evening with expected accumulation
around 1 inch by the time the snow ends tomorrow night. Snow
clearing operations will likely be required as temperatures will
be in the lower-mid 20s.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
603 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 345 PM CST Tue Feb 9 2016
Scattered flurries will continue for the rest of the afternoon under
the strato-cu deck. There is a clearing slot running down the west
side of the Mississippi River down almost to the Missouri River. The
clouds should continue to break up...although RAP and NAM soundings
show plenty of low level moisture trapped under an inversion into
the evening. Think most of the area should be clear of the low
clouds by 06Z...though south central Illinois counties will likely
stay under the clouds into Wednesday morning. Cold advection on
northwest flow will continue tonight into early Wednesday. Think
guidance temperatures in the single digits to mid teens look good
for lows tonight.
Focus turns to storm system developing on Wednesday. This look to
be a purely warm advection/frontogenesis snow. GFS, ECMWF and NAM
are showing some pretty high values of warm advection...between 30
to 50 degrees C/12hr. Forecast soundings show the moist layer
extending up into the dendritic growth zone with a decent amount of
lift through that layer as well. Looks like the snow will hold off
until mid-late afternoon. Due to the cold atmosphere and lift in
the best snow-growth zone, expect this will be a fluffy snow which
will accumulate pretty quickly...especially since highs will stay
well below freezing.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 345 PM CST Tue Feb 9 2016
Model guidance continues to improve its consensus for the track and
impact on the storm system expected to be ongoing early Wednesday
evening. The consensus track for max QPF stretches from north-
central MO thru the southwestern half of the STL metro area and
towards Cape Girardeau, MO. The WAA associated with this event is
expected to be intense and will probably result in rapid onset and
development which, again, should be ongoing by sundown Wednesday
evening. WAA remains intense thru much of Wednesday evening with
lift continuing well into the overnight hours, and for this reason,
will keep a mention of pcpn thru the nighttime hours with this
package. A fairly broad stripe of up to 1" of new snow accum is now
looking possible with this system, with near 2" potential in its
core/peak QPF track. If the WAA continues to be advertised as
intense with this system, these snow amounts, especially in the core
track, will probably need to be bumped up further due to high
anticipated snow to liquid ratios, when light winds are taken into
account from the surface RIDGE being over our region and a cold low-
mid level column.
Another system, of a more classic clipper variety, may impact our
region on late Thursday night into Friday, but the track for this
continues to be more to the northeast thru southern IA into central
IL, with only a modest mention of flurries or low PoPs justified at
this time.
Otherwise, a prolonged period of below average temps is forecast
from now thru the upcoming weekend, with very little moderation
expected in temps on Friday before the next shot of Arctic air
descends on our region for the weekend. Only by early next week
does the persistent RIDGE over the western CONUS begin to translate
eastward and could mean a return to average to even above average
temps at some point next week.
It is near this transition period Sunday-Monday that another system
is expected to impact our region. The GFS has finally come onboard
with the more consistent EC and GEM solutions but the nature of this
system is far from settled, with its initial onset possibly as early
as Saturday night and it may be completely done by Monday now. This
earlier timing would certainly favor an all snow event, with more
average temps for mid-February set to return on the heels of this
event. With the main storm still well over the north Pacific, there
is much that can go wrong or change and something to stay tuned for.
But as it stands now, could see widespread advisory criteria
snowfall.
TES
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 536 PM CST Tue Feb 9 2016
Expect dry and VFR conditions through Wednesday morning before snow
showers moves into the area from the northwest. These snow showers
should cause visibilities to lower into MVFR or IFR range at
times by late afternoon or early evening with snow accumulations
of 1 inch or possibly greater requiring snow clearing operations.
Temperatures will range from the teens at KUIN to the the lower-
mid 20s at KCOU and the St. Louis area terminals late tomorrow
afternoon.
Specifics for KSTL: Expect dry and VFR conditions through mid
afternoon before snow showers move into the terminal from the
northwest. Visibilities will fall into the MVFR range during the
afternoon and the IFR range by evening with expected accumulation
around 1 inch by the time the snow ends tomorrow night. Snow
clearing operations will likely be required as temperatures will
be in the lower-mid 20s.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
327 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOW REGION IN
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST WHILE AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST.
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT PRODUCED VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN ADDITION
TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 00Z WHEN ALL WINDS SHOULD BE
BELOW CRITERIA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NATION`S
MID SECTION THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WILL FOCUS MAINLY ON TEMPERATURES AS ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN CHANCES
ARE MINIMAL.
WE CONTINUE A VERY SMALL POP IN OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY AS A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH A VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH UPPER TEENS IN
OUR NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S IN OUR SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE FLOW ON FRIDAY WITH
MUCH OF THE STRONG FORCING REMAINING TO OUR NORTHEAST.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGING TO THE WEST DEAMPLIFIES LEAVING OUR REGION IN
MORE OF A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS STRONG 1047 MB HIGH.
THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BRINGING A CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO
THE NATION`S MID SECTION ON SUNDAY BUT WILL WAIT FOR SOME BETTER
MODEL CONTINUITY BEFORE ADDING A BUNCH OF POPS FOR THE TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
SOME MVFR CEILING SHOULD LINGER THIS AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT KOMA. THE MAJORITY OF THE
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE TENDS TO DECREASE CLOUDS BELOW 5000
FEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...WITH VARIABLE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS AFTER THAT. THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE THAT DOES KEEP
MVFR CEILINGS WELL INTO THE EVENING...SO THAT IS POSSIBLE. EXPECT
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH GUSTS ENDING OVERNIGHT.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-
055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
079-080-090-091.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
335 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THIS WEEK...BUT WILL DROP WAY BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE
AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA...GIVEN THE VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS FROM WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE. KVSF SURFACE DEWPOINT IS
CURRENTLY -13F...INDICATING THE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS WITH RH VALUES
IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. EXPECT VIRGA WITH INITIAL BAND LIFTING
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE DEEPENING FROM A COMBINATION
OF UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND DEPARTING OCEAN STORM.
THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME VERY WEAK LIFT FROM 5H VORT ROTATING
THRU OUR REGION. NAM/GFS AND LATEST RAP SHOW THE BEST COMBINATION OF
LIFT/MOISTURE MOVES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS OUR REGION BETWEEN
00Z AND 09Z TONIGHT...WITH DEVELOPING DRY SLOT IMPACTING OUR
SOUTHERN REGIONS BY 12Z TUESDAY. QPF FOR THIS MINIMAL EVENT WILL BE
VERY LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER 0.10 WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A
DUSTING TO 2 INCHES. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS BETWEEN SURFACE AND 850MB
NOT EXPECTING MUCH TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOWFALL WITH A VERY UNIFORMED
SNOWFALL ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS
TO MID 20S MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...BUT HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES ON
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...BUT AREA SEEMS TO
BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
BE TRICKY ON TUESDAY WITH A SHARP 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPS RANGE FROM -7C
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE TO -14C NORTHEAST KINGDOM...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S TO MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR
REGION...WITH WARMEST VALUES IN THE WEST. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP
IMMEDIATE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN THE MID 20S...WHILE
POTSDAM/CANTON SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 30S.
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH 5H VORT AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRES WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ON TUES NIGHT
INTO WEDS NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND DEVELOPING
COLD POOL ALOFT...PW VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.25. THIS
SUPPORTS ONLY LIGHT QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT GIVEN FLUFF
FACTOR...SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. BEST DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE ARRIVES AROUND 12Z WEDS...BUT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST IN
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT. WILL MENTION CHC POPS VALLEYS TO LIKELY IN
THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR WEDS...BUT SLOWLY FALL BY
WEDS NIGHT UNDER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST SURFACE
TO 850MB FLOW OF 15 TO 30 KNOTS. SOME LOCALIZED UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
IS POSSIBLE WEDS NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE PROFILES ARE VERY LIMITED.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN THE CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH MAY ALLOW FOR A STEADIER
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING
TO AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE EXITS TO THE
EAST. MIN TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5
BELOW ZERO.
MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH DEEP UPPER LOW. ECMWF
INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW ALONG THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD KEEP CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO
SATURDAY...BUT GFS SHOWS ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT WELL OFFSHORE WITH
SNOW SHOWERS ENDING IN MOST SPOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY
DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.
BIG STORY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE THE ARCTIC CHILL...WITH
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THIS POINT EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION WILL BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW IN MOST AREAS...BUT WILL HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS 850 MB
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND -30C. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO. COLDEST TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
BELOW...WITH LOWER READINGS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONLY 5 TO 10 ABOVE WITH SOME SUNSHINE. ANOTHER
NIGHT OF SUBZERO TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MODERATION BEGINS ON
MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING LATER TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z TUESDAY WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR AND VISIBILITIES TO IFR WITHIN A COUPLE
OF HOURS OF ONSET OF SNOW. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT MOST SITES
BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5 TO 10
KTS TODAY...WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS AT MSS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
18Z TUE-00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.
00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHSN.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
901 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE A BLAST OF VERY COLD AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 900 PM TUESDAY...YET ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE DEEPLY CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING. THE
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HANGS ON TO THESE SHOWERS UNTIL AROUND
03Z THEN INDICATES DRYING WITH SKIES CLEARING AFTER 06Z. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT OVERNIGHT TO SUSTAIN WESTERLY WINDS 5
TO 10 MPH INLAND AND 15 TO 25 MPH COAST. THESE WINDS COUPLED WITH
TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S INLAND
AND LOW 30S OUTER BANKS WILL ADD AN ADDITIONAL CHILL TO THE AIR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE BETWEEN 750 AND 850 MB WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
YIELD PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ANOMALOUSLY LOW THICKNESSES SHOULD LEAD
TO A CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S WITH WEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN
COLDER.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ARCTIC
AIRMASS MOVING INTO EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY... HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO
RISE...BUT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN DOMINANT ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF. 850MB TEMPERATURE STILL REMAINS BELOW
AVERAGE...THEREFORE LEADING TO ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. THURSDAY NIGHT, EXPECT LOWS IN
THE LOW 20S.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN FROM
CANADA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO RE-AMPLIFYING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF U.S. AND BRINGING EVEN
COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
BOTH THE 09/12Z GFS AND 09/12Z ECMWF IS HAVING A BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER FOR FRIDAY INTO LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH MODELS SHOW A STRONG FORCING AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
WHILE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND SFC LOW DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST. THE SHORTWAVE COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SEE SOME -RA/-SN
SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS OF -RA/-SN MIX...THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOW 40S.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN COLDER/DRIER
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION.VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET BY
SUNDAY BTW -20C TO -15C WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE
1225-1240M RANGE. THIS WILL BRING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH HIGH STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY
HIGHS...UPPER 30S/LOW 40S AND SUNDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR BOTH SATURDAY SUNDAY
NIGHT.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES IN FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DEVELOPING A SFC LOW DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION 20% POP FOR RAIN...MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY... AS THE SFC LOW WILL BE CLOSE TO THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND MONDAY AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE 40S MONDAY AND LOW 50S TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 615 PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY
THIS EVENING WHICH COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE A MVFR CEILING. SKIES
AFE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AFTER 06Z BUT DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WEDNESDAY SHOULD LEAD TO 4000-6000 FT CEILINGS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING
WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 10 KT OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW 5 TO 15 KNOTS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WITH ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD BEHIND IT. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FOR THURSDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 900 PM TUESDAY...VERY ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE WITH 7 TO 10 FOOT
SEAS IN A COMBINATION OF 14-15 SECOND SWELL AND A SHORTER WIND
WAVE. THE LATEST 3KM HRRR AND RAP MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. NO
CHANGES TO THE ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. WITH THE OFFSHORE
FLOW...SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUES...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND
ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALL THE COASTAL
WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. THERE WILL BE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS WINDS
AND SEAS SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS...WITH NW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS
AND 2 TO 4 FT. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS ANOTHER
STRONG COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS...EXPECT NW
WINDS 20-30 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY...LATEST PREDICTED WATER LEVEL DEPARTURES
DURING THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AND AGAIN AROUND MID-MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY ARE AROUND 3 FEET...DOWN A BIT FROM THIS MORNING`S TIDE
WHICH PRODUCED SOME MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. EARLIER
ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER BANKS TO RUN THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL OCEAN
OVERWASH AND BEACH EROSION THAT MAY OCCUR AROUND THE NEXT TWO HIGH
TIDES.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...JME/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...JME/BM
MARINE...JME/CTC/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
618 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE A BLAST OF VERY COLD AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...YET ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION HAS TOUCHED OFF A FEW
SHOWERS LATE TODAY ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND
REGION. THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HANGS ON TO THESE SHOWERS
UNTIL AROUND 03Z THEN INDICATES DRYING WITH SKIES CLEARING AFTER
06Z. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT OVERNIGHT TO SUSTAIN
WESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH AND 10 TO 20 MPH COAST. THESE WINDS
COUPLED WITH TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 20S/LOW 30S OUTER BANKS WILL ADD ADDITIONAL CHILL TO THE
AIR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE BETWEEN 750 AND 850 MB WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
YIELD PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ANOMALOUSLY LOW THICKNESSES SHOULD LEAD
TO A CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S WITH WEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN
COLDER.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ARCTIC
AIRMASS MOVING INTO EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY... HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO
RISE...BUT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN DOMINANT ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF. 850MB TEMPERATURE STILL REMAINS BELOW
AVERAGE...THEREFORE LEADING TO ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. THURSDAY NIGHT, EXPECT LOWS IN
THE LOW 20S.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN FROM
CANADA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO RE-AMPLIFYING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF U.S. AND BRINGING EVEN
COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
BOTH THE 09/12Z GFS AND 09/12Z ECMWF IS HAVING A BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER FOR FRIDAY INTO LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH MODELS SHOW A STRONG FORCING AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
WHILE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND SFC LOW DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST. THE SHORTWAVE COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SEE SOME -RA/-SN
SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS OF -RA/-SN MIX...THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOW 40S.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN COLDER/DRIER
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION.VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET BY
SUNDAY BTW -20C TO -15C WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE
1225-1240M RANGE. THIS WILL BRING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH HIGH STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY
HIGHS...UPPER 30S/LOW 40S AND SUNDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR BOTH SATURDAY SUNDAY
NIGHT.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES IN FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DEVELOPING A SFC LOW DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION 20% POP FOR RAIN...MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY... AS THE SFC LOW WILL BE CLOSE TO THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND MONDAY AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE 40S MONDAY AND LOW 50S TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 615 PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY
THIS EVENING WHICH COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE A MVFR CEILING. SKIES
AFE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AFTER 06Z BUT DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WEDNESDAY SHOULD LEAD TO 4000-6000 FT CEILINGS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 10 KT OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW 5 TO 15 KNOTS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WITH ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD BEHIND IT. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FOR THURSDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 615 PM TUESDAY...VERY ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE WITH 7 TO 10 FOOT
SEAS IN A COMBINATION OF 14-15 SECOND SWELL AND A SHORTER WIND
WAVE. THE LATEST 3KM HRRR AND RAP MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. WITH THE OFFSHORE
FLOW...SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUES...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND
ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALL THE COASTAL
WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. THERE WILL BE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS WINDS
AND SEAS SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS...WITH NW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS
AND 2 TO 4 FT. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS ANOTHER
STRONG COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS...EXPECT NW
WINDS 20-30 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY...LATEST PREDICTED WATER LEVEL DEPARTURES
DURING THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AND AGAIN AROUND MID-MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY ARE AROUND 3 FEET...DOWN A BIT FROM THIS MORNING`S TIDE
WHICH PRODUCED SOME MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. EARLIER
ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER BANKS TO RUN THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL OCEAN
OVERWASH AND BEACH EROSION THAT MAY OCCUR AROUND THE NEXT TWO HIGH
TIDES.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...JME/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...JME/BM
MARINE...JME/CTC/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
607 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE A BLAST OF VERY COLD AIR
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 550 PM MONDAY...SHRA ASSOC WITH COLD FRONT HOLDING TOGETHER
AS THEY APPROACH CSTL PLAIN. BASED ON RDR AND HIGH RES MDLS WILL
UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR A FEW HRS THIS EVENING WRN TIER AS SHRA
MOVE INTO THE REGION. MOST OF THE MDLS SHOWS SHRA DISSIPATING A
BIT AS THEY MOVE CLOSER TO CST SO WILL KEEP CHC POP THESE AREAS FOR
NOW. NO CHANGE TO TEMPS WITH AROUND 35 INLAND TO UPR 30S/AROUND 40
BEACHES.
PREV DISC...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND A DEVELOPING ANOMALOUSLY DEEP EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
MAINLY THIS EVENING. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE WRF-
NMM/NSSL- WRF AND HRRR INDICATE A WEAKENING BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN NC BETWEEN 00Z- 06Z THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND/NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT LESS THAN 0.10" IN MOST LOCATIONS.
COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID 30S AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A SURFACE REFLECTION. MEAN RH
500-1000 MB INCREASES BUT THERE IS A LOT LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
WHICH WILL TO ACT TO INHIBIT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE
LATEST MODELS NOT GENERATING MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL ISSUE
A DRY FORECAST ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE COULD
OCCUR. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPING FLOW
SUCH THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY:
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PLACED
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF U.S...BRING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE LACK
OF MOISTURE SOURCE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY OVER EASTERN NC
THROUGH THURSDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A CHILLY AND PARTLY
CLOUDY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH HIGHS TEMPS
STRUGGLING INTO THE 40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THICKNESSES QUITE LOW AND CONTINUING
WESTERLY BREEZE MAKES THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S FEEL
MORE LIKE THE TEENS.
THURSDAY...HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO RISE/DEAMPLIFY...BUT
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN DOMINATE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF.
850MB TEMPERATURE STILL REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE...THEREFORE LEADING
TO ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S UNDER SUNNY
SKIES. THURSDAY NIGHT, EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW 20S.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN FROM
CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LEADING TO RE-AMPLIFYING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF U.S. AND BRINGING EVEN
COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
BOTH THE 08/12Z GFS AND 08/00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO HAVE DISAGREEMENTS
WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER. ECMWF QUITE A BIT STRONGER
WITH FORCING...MOISTURE AND KEEPING MOST OF PRECIP LIQUID. WHILE GFS
LESS AMPLIFIED THOUGH...IT BRINGS THE THREAT OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
FOR E NC. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...IN TRACKING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN ON
THE BACK-SIDE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT COULD POTENTIALLY SUPPORT
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS OF
RA/SN MIX WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO MID 40S
COAST.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. THE
850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET BY SUNDAY TO AROUND -20C WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE 1220-1230M RANGE. THIS CAN BRING VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY...WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ABOVE FREEZING...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 30S.
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS THE LONG WAVE THOUGH
AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE...WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING BACK INTO THE
40S.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 550 PM MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BAND OF SHRA WILL IMPACT TAF
SITES FIRST FEW HRS OF FCST WITH POSS SOME BRIEF SUB VFR POSS
ESPCLY AT PGV AND ISO. LATER TONIGHT DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES OFFSHORE
WITH VFR EXPECTED AS ANY CIGS WILL BE ABOVE 3K FEET. ANOTHER SHRT
WAVE WILL CROSS TUE BUT OVERALL MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED. MDLS SHOW GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE AROUND 5K FT SO
WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME CIGS IN THIS RANGE. W WINDS WILL GUST AT
TIMES TO 20 KT ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX ON FRIDAY WITH A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH FROM THE WEST. STILL QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME AS MODELS IT
IS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME HOW MUCH MOISTURE AND COLD AIR WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR RAIN OR SNOW. STAY TUNED.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 607 PM MONDAY...FSCA CONT CSTL WTRS TONIGHT...SEAS REMAIN
VERY LARGE IN SWELL N OF HAT...RAISED SEAS SEVERAL FEET OVER NRN
AND CENTRAL WTRS REST OF THE NIGHT AS WAVE GUIDANCE IS SEVERLY
UNDERDONE.
PREV DISC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN AFFECT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND ALLIGATOR RIVER BEGINNING
LATE TUESDAY. CONTINUE ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. A NEW
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND FOR TUESDAY.
LARGE DANGEROUS SWELL CONTINUES OFF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COAST
AND THE WAVE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS WELL AS THEY ARE UNDERDONE
BY SEVERAL FEET. THIS SWELL SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOME LATE
THIS EVENING BUT THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
LATER TONIGHT ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AND THIS WILL
HALT ANY FURTHER DECREASE IN SEAS. BEHIND THE FRONT WESTERLY FLOW
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT HIGHEST SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND ALL WATERS TUESDAY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO GALE FORCE BUT NOT CONVINCED FREQUENCY WILL
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A GALE WARNING SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. LATE TUESDAY GUSTS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6 FEET WITH PERIODS
SHORTENING UP ON TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND
ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS AND
PAMLICO SOUND. THERE WILL BE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE. EXPECT NW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS AND 2 TO 4 FT. SEAS AND WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS ANOTHER SECONDARY COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...LINGERING VERY LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH
YESTERDAYS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE OUTER
BANKS THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE HIGH
TIDES THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING WILL LEAD TO OCEAN OVERWASH
AND BEACH EROSION ESPECIALLY ALONG HATTERAS ISLAND. PORTIONS OF
HIGHWAY 12 IN THE USUAL VULNERABLE LOCATIONS COULD BECOME WATER
COVERED AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING.
PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING/ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ104.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...RF/JME/BM
MARINE...RF/JME/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
553 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE A BLAST OF VERY COLD AIR
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 550 PM MONDAY...SHRA ASSOC WITH COLD FRONT HOLDING TOGETHER
AS THEY APPROACH CSTL PLAIN. BASED ON RDR AND HIGH RES MDLS WILL
UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR A FEW HRS THIS EVENING WRN TIER AS SHRA
MOVE INTO THE REGION. MOST OF THE MDLS SHOWS SHRA DISSIPATING A
BIT AS THEY MOVE CLOSER TO CST SO WILL KEEP CHC POP THESE AREAS FOR
NOW. NO CHANGE TO TEMPS WITH AROUND 35 INLAND TO UPR 30S/AROUND 40
BEACHES.
PREV DISC...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND A DEVELOPING ANOMALOUSLY DEEP EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
MAINLY THIS EVENING. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE WRF-
NMM/NSSL- WRF AND HRRR INDICATE A WEAKENING BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN NC BETWEEN 00Z- 06Z THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND/NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT LESS THAN 0.10" IN MOST LOCATIONS.
COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID 30S AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A SURFACE REFLECTION. MEAN RH
500-1000 MB INCREASES BUT THERE IS A LOT LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
WHICH WILL TO ACT TO INHIBIT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE
LATEST MODELS NOT GENERATING MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL ISSUE
A DRY FORECAST ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE COULD
OCCUR. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPING FLOW
SUCH THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY:
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PLACED
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF U.S...BRING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE LACK
OF MOISTURE SOURCE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY OVER EASTERN NC
THROUGH THURSDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A CHILLY AND PARTLY
CLOUDY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH HIGHS TEMPS
STRUGGLING INTO THE 40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THICKNESSES QUITE LOW AND CONTINUING
WESTERLY BREEZE MAKES THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S FEEL
MORE LIKE THE TEENS.
THURSDAY...HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO RISE/DEAMPLIFY...BUT
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN DOMINATE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF.
850MB TEMPERATURE STILL REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE...THEREFORE LEADING
TO ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S UNDER SUNNY
SKIES. THURSDAY NIGHT, EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW 20S.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN FROM
CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LEADING TO RE-AMPLIFYING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF U.S. AND BRINGING EVEN
COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
BOTH THE 08/12Z GFS AND 08/00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO HAVE DISAGREEMENTS
WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER. ECMWF QUITE A BIT STRONGER
WITH FORCING...MOISTURE AND KEEPING MOST OF PRECIP LIQUID. WHILE GFS
LESS AMPLIFIED THOUGH...IT BRINGS THE THREAT OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
FOR E NC. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...IN TRACKING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN ON
THE BACK-SIDE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT COULD POTENTIALLY SUPPORT
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS OF
RA/SN MIX WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO MID 40S
COAST.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. THE
850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET BY SUNDAY TO AROUND -20C WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE 1220-1230M RANGE. THIS CAN BRING VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY...WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ABOVE FREEZING...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 30S.
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS THE LONG WAVE THOUGH
AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE...WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING BACK INTO THE
40S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 550 PM MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BAND OF SHRA WILL IMPACT TAF
SITES FIRST FEW HRS OF FCST WITH POSS SOME BRIEF SUB VFR POSS
ESPCLY AT PGV AND ISO. LATER TONIGHT DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES OFFSHORE
WITH VFR EXPECTED AS ANY CIGS WILL BE ABOVE 3K FEET. ANOTHER SHRT
WAVE WILL CROSS TUE BUT OVERALL MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED. MDLS SHOW GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE AROUND 5K FT SO
WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME CIGS IN THIS RANGE. W WINDS WILL GUST AT
TIMES TO 20 KT ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX ON FRIDAY WITH A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH FROM THE WEST. STILL QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME AS MODELS IT
IS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME HOW MUCH MOISTURE AND COLD AIR WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR RAIN OR SNOW. STAY TUNED.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 550 PM MONDAY...FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH SCA CONT CSTL WTRS
TONIGHT...SEAS REMAIN VERY LARGE IN SWELL N OF HAT.
PREV DISC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN AFFECT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND ALLIGATOR RIVER BEGINNING
LATE TUESDAY. CONTINUE ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. A NEW
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND FOR TUESDAY.
LARGE DANGEROUS SWELL CONTINUES OFF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COAST
AND THE WAVE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS WELL AS THEY ARE UNDERDONE
BY SEVERAL FEET. THIS SWELL SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOME LATE
THIS EVENING BUT THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
LATER TONIGHT ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AND THIS WILL
HALT ANY FURTHER DECREASE IN SEAS. BEHIND THE FRONT WESTERLY FLOW
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT HIGHEST SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND ALL WATERS TUESDAY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO GALE FORCE BUT NOT CONVINCED FREQUENCY WILL
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A GALE WARNING SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. LATE TUESDAY GUSTS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6 FEET WITH PERIODS
SHORTENING UP ON TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND
ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS AND
PAMLICO SOUND. THERE WILL BE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE. EXPECT NW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS AND 2 TO 4 FT. SEAS AND WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS ANOTHER SECONDARY COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...LINGERING VERY LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH
YESTERDAYS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE OUTER
BANKS THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE HIGH
TIDES THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING WILL LEAD TO OCEAN OVERWASH
AND BEACH EROSION ESPECIALLY ALONG HATTERAS ISLAND. PORTIONS OF
HIGHWAY 12 IN THE USUAL VULNERABLE LOCATIONS COULD BECOME WATER
COVERED AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING.
PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING/ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ104.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...RF/JME/BM
MARINE...RF/JME/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
406 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AND EXTENDED
PERIOD OF COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...
A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL SPREAD 100-150M
HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED PAIR
OF COLD FRONTS TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE BIGGEST FORECAST INTEREST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS THE BAND
OF SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE LEAD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. THE BAND
STRETCHING FROM THE TRIAD THROUGH CHARLOTTE IS FORECAST BY CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 21Z AND
03Z. WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S...THERE IS VERY LITTLE CAPE...IF ANY AT ALL. HOWEVER...AN AXIS OF
STEEP 7-7.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRAMATIC
COOLING UNDERWAY ALOFT HAS ADVECTED OVER CENTRAL NC...PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS. THIS COUPLED WITH THE (RELATIVE) WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY JUST IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE HRRR SHOWS THE BAND OF SHOWERS
STRENGTHENING A BIT WITH TIME AND EASTWARD EXTENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN A FAIRLY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WIND GUSTS OF 30-40MPH WITH THE SHOWERS
SEEMS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO PLAUSIBLE
WITHIN THE LINE GIVEN THE THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT
WITHOUT BETTER FORECASTS CAPE...PREFER TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF
THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS BEFORE ADDING THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.
A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST VA BY
MIDNIGHT AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LATE
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME OMEGA AND MOISTURE
IN THE -12C TO -18C LAYER FROM DANVILLE TO EMPORIA...SO IT SEEMS
LESS LIKELY THAT WE`LL SEE ANY PRECIP THAT CHANGES OVER TO SNOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT A FEW FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOWS 28-33.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...
THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL MAKE ITS WAY OVERHEAD ON
TUESDAY...WITH A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE TROUGH FORECAST TO SWING
ACROSS VA AND NORTHERN NC DURING THE AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT...ALONG WITH THE STRONG DCVA AND MOISTENING BETWEEN 5-10K
FEET(COINCIDENT WITH THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE)...MAY LEAD SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER....ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
DAY FROM ROXBORO TO ROANOKE RAPIDS. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE MUCH BETTER COVERAGE NORTH OF THE BORDER AND THE ECMWF IS
THE ONLY MODEL TO INDICATE ANY QPF IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID 40S EAST...BUT DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 20S WOULD PUSH WETBULB PROFILES COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID
20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM MONDAY...
COLD MID-LATE WEEK...AND EVEN COLDER --PERHAPS RECORD SO-- THIS
WEEKEND...WITH A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION (LATE FRI-
FRI NIGHT AND LATE MON-TUE).
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A STRONG WESTERN NOAM
RIDGE AND EASTERN NOAM TROUGH WILL UNDERGO A BRIEF RELAXATION LATE
IN THE WEEK...IN ADVANCE OF A POLAR VORTEX THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND...AND EFFECTIVELY RE-AMPLIFY THE
FLOW...THIS WEEKEND. A PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL THEN FLATTEN
THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE SUN-MON.
WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...SHEAR VORTICITY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGHS WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES MID-LATE WEEK...WITH EACH SUPPORTING AN AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION STREAKING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE LEAD
DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE A MORE LIMITED MOISTURE SUPPLY AND LITTLE LOW
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS ON THU...WHILE THE SECOND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW-
MID LEVEL WAA REGIME AND CONSEQUENTLY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SUPPORTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOST LIKELY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW...OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...CENTERED AROUND FRI EVENING.
A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL ACCOMPANY THE
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED POLAR VORTEX
SUPPRESSES THE NORTHERN STREAM/PROMOTES CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT THE SOUTHEASTWARD MAINTENANCE OF A 1040-1045 MB HIGH
FROM THE ARCTIC. WHILE THIS WOULD YIELD INITIALLY JUST NEAR RECORD
COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE
PACIFIC TROUGH AND AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WOULD
RAISE THE PROBABILITY OF STREAM INTERACTION...AND STORMINESS AND
APPALACHIAN COLD AIR DAMMING...MON-TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM MONDAY...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 20Z
AND 02Z...THEN TURN TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS AND A WIND GUST TO 30-35MPH IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
SHOWERS...THOUGH THE STRONGER GUSTS WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED AND ARE
NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF. AS THE SHOWERS EXIT THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE
THIS EVENING...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT
OVER SOUTHERN VA..WHICH MAY DRAW SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SOUTH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND CAUSE A FEW EXTRA SHOWERS OR
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH OF KRDU AND KRWI AFTER 09Z.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 9-12KT AND GUST TO AROUND 20KT ON
TUESDAY
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL COME FRIDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES
THE AREA.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...2
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
405 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE A BLAST OF VERY COLD AIR
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND A DEVELOPING ANOMALOUSLY DEEP EASTERN UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAINLY THIS EVENING. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS
THE WRF-NMM/NSSL-WRF AND HRRR INDICATE A WEAKENING BAND OF
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NC BETWEEN 00Z-06Z THIS EVENING
ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND/NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT LESS THAN 0.10" IN MOST LOCATIONS.
COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID 30S AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A SURFACE REFLECTION. MEAN RH
500-1000 MB INCREASES BUT THERE IS A LOT LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
WHICH WILL TO ACT TO INHIBIT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE
LATEST MODELS NOT GENERATING MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL ISSUE
A DRY FORECAST ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE COULD
OCCUR. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPING FLOW
SUCH THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY:
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PLACED
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF U.S...BRING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE LACK
OF MOISTURE SOURCE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY OVER EASTERN NC
THROUGH THURSDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A CHILLY AND PARTLY
CLOUDY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH HIGHS TEMPS
STRUGGLING INTO THE 40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THICKNESSES QUITE LOW AND CONTINUING
WESTERLY BREEZE MAKES THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S FEEL
MORE LIKE THE TEENS.
THURSDAY...HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO RISE/DEAMPLIFY...BUT
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN DOMINATE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF.
850MB TEMPERATURE STILL REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE...THEREFORE LEADING
TO ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S UNDER SUNNY
SKIES. THURSDAY NIGHT, EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW 20S.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN FROM
CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LEADING TO RE-AMPLIFYING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF U.S. AND BRINGING EVEN
COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
BOTH THE 08/12Z GFS AND 08/00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO HAVE DISAGREEMENTS
WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER. ECMWF QUITE A BIT STRONGER
WITH FORCING...MOISTURE AND KEEPING MOST OF PRECIP LIQUID. WHILE GFS
LESS AMPLIFIED THOUGH...IT BRINGS THE THREAT OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
FOR E NC. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...IN TRACKING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN ON
THE BACK-SIDE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT COULD POTENTIALLY SUPPORT
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS OF
RA/SN MIX WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO MID 40S
COAST.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. THE
850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET BY SUNDAY TO AROUND -20C WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE 1220-1230M RANGE. THIS CAN BRING VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY...WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ABOVE FREEZING...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 30S.
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS THE LONG WAVE THOUGH
AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE...WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING BACK INTO THE
40S.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS/WIND AND CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS 1Z-6Z THEN FLOW SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND
DRIER/COLDER AIR SWEEPS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL TO MUCH DRY LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW TO
OVERCOME TUESDAY AS THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AFFECTS THE AREA
SO EXPECTING DRY WEATHER WITH ANY CLOUD BASES TO BE AT VFR
LEVELS. WINDS WILL GUST AT TIMES TO 20 KT ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX ON FRIDAY WITH A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH FROM THE WEST. STILL QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME AS MODELS IT
IS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME HOW MUCH MOISTURE AND COLD AIR WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR RAIN OR SNOW. STAY TUNED.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN AFFECT
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND ALLIGATOR RIVER
BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY. CONTINUE ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS. A NEW ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND FOR
TUESDAY.
LARGE DANGEROUS SWELL CONTINUES OFF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COAST
AND THE WAVE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS WELL AS THEY ARE UNDERDONE
BY SEVERAL FEET. THIS SWELL SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOME LATE
THIS EVENING BUT THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
LATER TONIGHT ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AND THIS WILL
HALT ANY FURTHER DECREASE IN SEAS. BEHIND THE FRONT WESTERLY FLOW
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT HIGHEST SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND ALL WATERS TUESDAY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO GALE FORCE BUT NOT CONVINCED FREQUENCY WILL
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A GALE WARNING SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. LATE TUESDAY GUSTS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6 FEET WITH PERIODS
SHORTENING UP ON TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND
ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS AND
PAMLICO SOUND. THERE WILL BE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE. EXPECT NW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS AND 2 TO 4 FT. SEAS AND WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS ANOTHER SECONDARY COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...LINGERING VERY LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH
YESTERDAYS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE OUTER
BANKS THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE HIGH
TIDES THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING WILL LEAD TO OCEAN OVERWASH
AND BEACH EROSION ESPECIALLY ALONG HATTERAS ISLAND. PORTIONS OF
HIGHWAY 12 IN THE USUAL VULNERABLE LOCATIONS COULD BECOME WATER
COVERED AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING.
PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING/ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ103-
104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...JME/BM
MARINE...JME/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
320 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AND EXTENDED
PERIOD OF COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...
A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL SPREAD 100-150M
HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED PAIR
OF COLD FRONTS TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE BIGGEST FORECAST INTEREST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS THE BAND
OF SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE LEAD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. THE BAND
STRETCHING FROM THE TRIAD THROUGH CHARLOTTE IS FORECAST BY CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 21Z AND
03Z. WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S...THERE IS VERY LITTLE CAPE...IF ANY AT ALL. HOWEVER...AN AXIS OF
STEEP 7-7.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRAMATIC
COOLING UNDERWAY ALOFT HAS ADVECTED OVER CENTRAL NC...PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS. THIS COUPLED WITH THE (RELATIVE) WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY JUST IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE HRRR SHOWS THE BAND OF SHOWERS
STRENGTHENING A BIT WITH TIME AND EASTWARD EXTENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN A FAIRLY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WIND GUSTS OF 30-40MPH WITH THE SHOWERS
SEEMS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO PLAUSIBLE
WITHIN THE LINE GIVEN THE THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT
WITHOUT BETTER FORECASTS CAPE...PREFER TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF
THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS BEFORE ADDING THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.
A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST VA BY
MIDNIGHT AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LATE
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME OMEGA AND MOISTURE
IN THE -12C TO -18C LAYER FROM DANVILLE TO EMPORIA...SO IT SEEMS
LESS LIKELY THAT WE`LL SEE ANY PRECIP THAT CHANGES OVER TO SNOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT A FEW FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOWS 28-33.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...
THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL MAKE ITS WAY OVERHEAD ON
TUESDAY...WITH A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE TROUGH FORECAST TO SWING
ACROSS VA AND NORTHERN NC DURING THE AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT...ALONG WITH THE STRONG DCVA AND MOISTENING BETWEEN 5-10K
FEET(COINCIDENT WITH THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE)...MAY LEAD SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER....ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
DAY FROM ROXBORO TO ROANOKE RAPIDS. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE MUCH BETTER COVERAGE NORTH OF THE BORDER AND THE ECMWF IS
THE ONLY MODEL TO INDICATE ANY QPF IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID 40S EAST...BUT DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 20S WOULD PUSH WETBULB PROFILES COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID
20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...
...A SECONDARY COLDER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DESCEND SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
CORE OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER
TROUGH(H5ANOMALIES 2 TO 4 SD BELOW NORMAL)IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN US WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY. H8 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT ~15C WITH LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES 1240-1245M WEDNESDAY NIGHT...60 TO 70 METERS BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH
TO UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 SOUTH. LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY:
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE BRIEFLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE FRIDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT SUCCESSION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING OUT OF
CANADA...ANCHORED BY A STRONG VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION...LEADS TO
RENEWED AMPLIFICATION OF THE COLD EASTERN US TROUGH WITH EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC AIR DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME...ONE FEATURE WE WILL NEED TO BE MONITOR
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE EVENTUAL TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE
DIVING DOWN THE BACK-SIDE OF THE TROUGH THAT COULD POTENTIALLY
SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
BOTH THE EC AND GFS INDICATE THAT THE EARLIER MID-WEEK ARCTIC
INTRUSION WILL PALE IN COMPARISON TO THE WEEKEND INTRUSION WITH H8
PROGGED TO BE IN THE -20TO -25C WITH LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES TANKING
TO 1210-1215M. IF THESE INCREDIBLY COLD THICKNESSES VERIFY...HIGHS
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM MONDAY...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 20Z
AND 02Z...THEN TURN TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS AND A WIND GUST TO 30-35MPH IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
SHOWERS...THOUGH THE STRONGER GUSTS WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED AND ARE
NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF. AS THE SHOWERS EXIT THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE
THIS EVENING...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT
OVER SOUTHERN VA..WHICH MAY DRAW SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SOUTH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND CAUSE A FEW EXTRA SHOWERS OR
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH OF KRDU AND KRWI AFTER 09Z.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 9-12KT AND GUST TO AROUND 20KT ON
TUESDAY
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL COME FRIDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES
THE AREA.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
100 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AND EXTENDED
PERIOD OF COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM MONDAY...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST IS GIVING WAY TO A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH
THE MIDWEST. WITH 100-150M HEIGHT FALLS APPROACHING OUR REGION...THE
BIGGEST FORECAST INTEREST TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
A BAND OF SHOWERS AS A LEAD FRONTAL ZONE CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SHOW SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT AND/OR A PREFRONTAL TROUGH SITTING IN THE LEE OF THE
MOUNTAINS SOMETIME AROUND 20Z...AND THEN PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z. WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S...MODELS BARELY SHOW ANY MLCAPE AT ALL.
HOWEVER...AN AXIS OF STEEP 7-7.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CENTERED
JUST UPSTREAM OVER UPSTATE SC COMBINED WITH A WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK INSTABILITY TOP DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY JUST IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE HRRR SHOWS THE BAND OF SHOWERS
STRENGTHENING A BIT WITH TIME AND EASTWARD EXTENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN A FAIRLY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WIND GUSTS OF 30-40MPH WITH THE SHOWERS
SEEMS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO PLAUSIBLE
WITHIN THE LINE GIVEN THE THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT
WITHOUT BETTER FORECASTS CAPE...PREFER TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF
THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS BEFORE ADDING THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. -22
TONIGHT...
AS THE LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND TRACKS OVER
VA THEN OFFSHORE THIS EVENING... THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
TONIGHT. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT.
THIS IS LARGELY A DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER... SEVERAL MODELS
INCLUDING SOME OF THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS SHOW SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE MAY GET WRUNG OUT AS SNOW SHOWERS OR PATCHY FLURRIES LATE
TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER AND NORTHEAST OF RALEIGH. AT
THE CURRENT TIME... IT APPEARS THAT A QUICK DUSTING OR TRACE AMOUNTS
WOULD BE THE WORST CASE SCENARIO FOR AREAS AROUND ROXBORO TO ROCKY
MOUNT TO THE VA BORDER. OTHERWISE... THE COLD DRY ADVECTION WILL
QUICKLY END THE SHOWER THREAT. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 10-15
MPH. LOWS WITH CAA SHOULD DIP INTO THE 25-30 RANGE NW... AND LOWER
TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE BY TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 227 AM MONDAY...
BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE VERY COLD MID/UPPER TROUGH DIVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE TROUGH AXIS IS
FORECAST TO PIVOT THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT AND AFTERNOON STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH MOISTURE ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER... AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE... THE AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL NOT SEE MEASURABLE OR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S NW... TO NEAR 50 SE.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD WITH DIMINISHING NW
WINDS. LOWS GENERALLY 20-25 NW TO 25-28 SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...
...A SECONDARY COLDER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DESCEND SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
CORE OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER
TROUGH(H5ANOMALIES 2 TO 4 SD BELOW NORMAL)IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN US WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY. H8 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT ~15C WITH LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES 1240-1245M WEDNESDAY NIGHT...60 TO 70 METERS BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH
TO UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 SOUTH. LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY:
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE BRIEFLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE FRIDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT SUCCESSION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING OUT OF
CANADA...ANCHORED BY A STRONG VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION...LEADS TO
RENEWED AMPLIFICATION OF THE COLD EASTERN US TROUGH WITH EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC AIR DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME...ONE FEATURE WE WILL NEED TO BE MONITOR
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE EVENTUAL TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE
DIVING DOWN THE BACK-SIDE OF THE TROUGH THAT COULD POTENTIALLY
SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
BOTH THE EC AND GFS INDICATE THAT THE EARLIER MID-WEEK ARCTIC
INTRUSION WILL PALE IN COMPARISON TO THE WEEKEND INTRUSION WITH H8
PROGGED TO BE IN THE -20TO -25C WITH LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES TANKING
TO 1210-1215M. IF THESE INCREDIBLY COLD THICKNESSES VERIFY...HIGHS
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM MONDAY...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 20Z
AND 02Z...THEN TURN TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS AND A WIND GUST TO 30-35MPH IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
SHOWERS...THOUGH THE STRONGER GUSTS WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED AND ARE
NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF. AS THE SHOWERS EXIT THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE
THIS EVENING...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT
OVER SOUTHERN VA..WHICH MAY DRAW SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SOUTH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND CAUSE A FEW EXTRA SHOWERS OR
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH OF KRDU AND KRWI AFTER 09Z.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 9-12KT AND GUST TO AROUND 20KT ON
TUESDAY
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL COME FRIDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES
THE AREA.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT/SMITH
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1045 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL
MOVE AWAY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AND
EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM MONDAY...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST IS GIVING WAY TO A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH
THE MIDWEST. WITH 100-150M HEIGHT FALLS APPROACHING OUR REGION...THE
BIGGEST FORECAST INTEREST TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
A BAND OF SHOWERS AS A LEAD FRONTAL ZONE CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SHOW SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT AND/OR A PREFRONTAL TROUGH SITTING IN THE LEE OF THE
MOUNTAINS SOMETIME AROUND 20Z...AND THEN PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z. WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S...MODELS BARELY SHOW ANY MLCAPE AT ALL.
HOWEVER...AN AXIS OF STEEP 7-7.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CENTERED
JUST UPSTREAM OVER UPSTATE SC COMBINED WITH A WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK INSTABILITY TOP DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY JUST IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE HRRR SHOWS THE BAND OF SHOWERS
STRENGTHENING A BIT WITH TIME AND EASTWARD EXTENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN A FAIRLY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WIND GUSTS OF 30-40MPH WITH THE SHOWERS
SEEMS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO PLAUSIBLE
WITHIN THE LINE GIVEN THE THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT
WITHOUT BETTER FORECASTS CAPE...PREFER TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF
THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS BEFORE ADDING THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. -22
TONIGHT...
AS THE LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND TRACKS OVER
VA THEN OFFSHORE THIS EVENING... THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
TONIGHT. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT.
THIS IS LARGELY A DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER... SEVERAL MODELS
INCLUDING SOME OF THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS SHOW SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE MAY GET WRUNG OUT AS SNOW SHOWERS OR PATCHY FLURRIES LATE
TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER AND NORTHEAST OF RALEIGH. AT
THE CURRENT TIME... IT APPEARS THAT A QUICK DUSTING OR TRACE AMOUNTS
WOULD BE THE WORST CASE SCENARIO FOR AREAS AROUND ROXBORO TO ROCKY
MOUNT TO THE VA BORDER. OTHERWISE... THE COLD DRY ADVECTION WILL
QUICKLY END THE SHOWER THREAT. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 10-15
MPH. LOWS WITH CAA SHOULD DIP INTO THE 25-30 RANGE NW... AND LOWER
TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE BY TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 227 AM MONDAY...
BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE VERY COLD MID/UPPER TROUGH DIVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE TROUGH AXIS IS
FORECAST TO PIVOT THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT AND AFTERNOON STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH MOISTURE ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER... AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE... THE AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL NOT SEE MEASURABLE OR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S NW... TO NEAR 50 SE.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD WITH DIMINISHING NW
WINDS. LOWS GENERALLY 20-25 NW TO 25-28 SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...
...A SECONDARY COLDER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DESCEND SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
CORE OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER
TROUGH(H5ANOMALIES 2 TO 4 SD BELOW NORMAL)IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN US WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY. H8 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT ~15C WITH LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES 1240-1245M WEDNESDAY NIGHT...60 TO 70 METERS BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH
TO UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 SOUTH. LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY:
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE BRIEFLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE FRIDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT SUCCESSION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING OUT OF
CANADA...ANCHORED BY A STRONG VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION...LEADS TO
RENEWED AMPLIFICATION OF THE COLD EASTERN US TROUGH WITH EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC AIR DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME...ONE FEATURE WE WILL NEED TO BE MONITOR
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE EVENTUAL TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE
DIVING DOWN THE BACK-SIDE OF THE TROUGH THAT COULD POTENTIALLY
SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
BOTH THE EC AND GFS INDICATE THAT THE EARLIER MID-WEEK ARCTIC
INTRUSION WILL PALE IN COMPARISON TO THE WEEKEND INTRUSION WITH H8
PROGGED TO BE IN THE -20TO -25C WITH LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES TANKING
TO 1210-1215M. IF THESE INCREDIBLY COLD THICKNESSES VERIFY...HIGHS
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM MONDAY...
FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 18Z
TODAY. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW THIS
AFTERNOON. OUT AHEAD OF THIS QUICK MOVING SYSTEM... SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-20KT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS WITH RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT
KINT/KGSO... THEN KRDU AND KRWI BY EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR...WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25KT WED AND THU.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT/SMITH
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BADGETT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1244 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
EVEN WITH EXPANDING BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER INCREASED/EXTENDED POPS
WITH SHSN THROUGH THE VALLEY REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
SHSN/SQUALLS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITHIN NARROW N-S ORIENTED 850MB
COLD POOL FROM VALLEY INTO E SD WITHIN ENHANCED ZONE OF DENDRITIC
LAYER RH. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SNOW SHOWERS
COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO CAUSE VISIBILITY ISSUES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
ALTHOUGH WEB CAMS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD STILL GETTING STREAMER SHSN
WHICH LIMIT VSBY. WAITING TO SEE IF WINDS PICK BACK UP BUT FOR NOW
WILL LET ADVISORY RIDE AND REVISIT LATER THIS AM. ADJUSTED POPS A
BIT BUT NO BIG CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
MANY OBS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STILL SHOWING 1 SM OR LESS VIS...AND
WEB CAMS IN SOME SPOTS CONTINUE TO LOOK TO HAVE POOR CONDITIONS.
THE RADAR SHOWS THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY
WEAKEN...BUT THEY WILL CONTINUE A WHILE LONGER AND WITH WINDS
STILL AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40...BLOWING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VIS ARE NOT
DOWN TO 1/4SM SO WILL LET THE BLIZZARD WARNING GO BUT HAVE
EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY
COUNTIES. THE WEST HAS SEEN WINDS COME DOWN SO LET THE WIND
ADVISORY GO. THE EAST HAS THE SHELTER OF THE TREES SO VIS IS NOT
AS BAD AND LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE IN THAT AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
SNOW SHOWERS...WIND...AND WHAT TO DO WITH HEADLINES WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST HEADACHE FOR THE SHORT TERM.
STREAKS OF SNOW CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH
POOR VISIBILITY UNDER THE HEAVIER BANDS. SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN VALLEY HAS BEEN GOING ON FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND
THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE A SHARP DECREASE IN SNOW ACTIVITY BY 12Z.
HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST TO GET RID OF THE PRECIP ALL
NIGHT. WITH WINDS AND PERIODIC LOW VIS...WILL KEEP WINTER HEADLINES
GOING THROUGH 12Z AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK LATER THIS MORNING TO SEE
IF THEY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR NOT.
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE STRONG THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS ABOVE 36
KTS STILL GOING AT FARGO AND GRAND FORKS. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE 45 KTS AT 925MB WITH EVEN HIGHER SPEEDS AT 850MB. MIXING
CONTINUES TO BE GOOD FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT...AROUND 900 TO 875MB.
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE TODAY AS THE SFC LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING.
THINK WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING AND EVEN INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH HIGHER WIND SPEEDS...THINK THAT ONCE
SNOW STOPS ACTIVELY FALLING THE VISIBILITY SITUATION WILL IMPROVE.
THUS...AS LONG AS SNOW SHOWERS STOP AS EXPECTED IT WILL MAINLY BE
A MATTER OF CHANGING OVER FROM WINTER HEADLINES TO WIND ADVISORY
AT 12Z. WILL MONITOR THE RADAR...OBS AND WEB CAMS DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS TO DETERMINE HOW TO ADJUST HEADLINES WHEN THE TIME
COMES BUT WILL KEEP THEM AS THEY ARE FOR NOW.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE QUIET AS NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLDER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING LATELY...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WHERE THEY WILL
GET THE BRUNT OF THE COLDER AIR MASS. WITH TEMPS DIPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO 10 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST...AND SOME WINDS
HANGING ON IN THAT AREA...WIND CHILLS COULD GET DOWN TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WITH ONGOING CURRENT HEADLINES WILL WAIT TO
PUT OUT ANYTHING ADDITIONAL FOR TOMORROW MORNING. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ZERO IN THE NORTHEAST BUT ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES WARMER IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE THICKNESS VALUES WILL BE
HIGHER.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST. A JET STREAK COMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING SOME LIFT
AND CREATE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER MAINLY OUR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR
WEDNESDAY. THINK THAT THE SNOW IS LESS LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE JET STREAK WILL HAVE MOVED OFF BY THEN SO WENT WITH THE
LOWER BLENDED POPS INSTEAD OF THE VERY WET NAM. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS IN THE SOUTHWEST.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER AIR PATTERN WAS
OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE EASTERN STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST. PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING TO NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS WAS A FASTER SOLUTION THEN
THE ECMWF. ALSO THE GFS WAS TRENDING FASTER AND THE ECMWF WAS
TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL BLEND THE TWO
MODELS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE DECREASED A DEGREE OR SO FOR THU. HIGHS WERE
DECREASED TWO TO FOUR DEGREES ON FRI...DECREASED FIVE TO SIX
DEGREES ON SAT AND INCREASED ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
HIGHLY VARIABLE VSBYS WITH SNOW SQUALLS AND BLSN IMPACTING GFK
AND FAR WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30KTS...LIGHTER WINDS AT BJI...DVL AND
TVF WITH -SN THAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. BLSN TO
TAPPER OFF IN THE VALLEY EARLY EVENING...GUIDANCE SCT OUT MVFR
DECK THIS EVENING ALSO...LESS CONFIDENCE IN THIS BUT EXPECTING
CIGS TO SCT OR CLEAR OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ007-
008-016-027-029-030-039-053-054.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ001>005-007-008-013>015-022-027-029-030-040.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1116 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SNOW SHOWERS
COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO CAUSE VISIBILITY ISSUES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
ALTHOUGH WEB CAMS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD STILL GETTING STREAMER SHSN
WHICH LIMIT VSBY. WAITING TO SEE IF WINDS PICK BACK UP BUT FOR NOW
WILL LET ADVISORY RIDE AND REVISIT LATER THIS AM. ADJUSTED POPS A
BIT BUT NO BIG CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
MANY OBS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STILL SHOWING 1 SM OR LESS VIS...AND
WEB CAMS IN SOME SPOTS CONTINUE TO LOOK TO HAVE POOR CONDITIONS.
THE RADAR SHOWS THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY
WEAKEN...BUT THEY WILL CONTINUE A WHILE LONGER AND WITH WINDS
STILL AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40...BLOWING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VIS ARE NOT
DOWN TO 1/4SM SO WILL LET THE BLIZZARD WARNING GO BUT HAVE
EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY
COUNTIES. THE WEST HAS SEEN WINDS COME DOWN SO LET THE WIND
ADVISORY GO. THE EAST HAS THE SHELTER OF THE TREES SO VIS IS NOT
AS BAD AND LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE IN THAT AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
SNOW SHOWERS...WIND...AND WHAT TO DO WITH HEADLINES WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST HEADACHE FOR THE SHORT TERM.
STREAKS OF SNOW CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH
POOR VISIBILITY UNDER THE HEAVIER BANDS. SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN VALLEY HAS BEEN GOING ON FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND
THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE A SHARP DECREASE IN SNOW ACTIVITY BY 12Z.
HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST TO GET RID OF THE PRECIP ALL
NIGHT. WITH WINDS AND PERIODIC LOW VIS...WILL KEEP WINTER HEADLINES
GOING THROUGH 12Z AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK LATER THIS MORNING TO SEE
IF THEY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR NOT.
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE STRONG THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS ABOVE 36
KTS STILL GOING AT FARGO AND GRAND FORKS. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE 45 KTS AT 925MB WITH EVEN HIGHER SPEEDS AT 850MB. MIXING
CONTINUES TO BE GOOD FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT...AROUND 900 TO 875MB.
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE TODAY AS THE SFC LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING.
THINK WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING AND EVEN INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH HIGHER WIND SPEEDS...THINK THAT ONCE
SNOW STOPS ACTIVELY FALLING THE VISIBILITY SITUATION WILL IMPROVE.
THUS...AS LONG AS SNOW SHOWERS STOP AS EXPECTED IT WILL MAINLY BE
A MATTER OF CHANGING OVER FROM WINTER HEADLINES TO WIND ADVISORY
AT 12Z. WILL MONITOR THE RADAR...OBS AND WEB CAMS DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS TO DETERMINE HOW TO ADJUST HEADLINES WHEN THE TIME
COMES BUT WILL KEEP THEM AS THEY ARE FOR NOW.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE QUIET AS NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLDER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING LATELY...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WHERE THEY WILL
GET THE BRUNT OF THE COLDER AIR MASS. WITH TEMPS DIPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO 10 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST...AND SOME WINDS
HANGING ON IN THAT AREA...WIND CHILLS COULD GET DOWN TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WITH ONGOING CURRENT HEADLINES WILL WAIT TO
PUT OUT ANYTHING ADDITIONAL FOR TOMORROW MORNING. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ZERO IN THE NORTHEAST BUT ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES WARMER IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE THICKNESS VALUES WILL BE
HIGHER.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST. A JET STREAK COMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING SOME LIFT
AND CREATE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER MAINLY OUR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR
WEDNESDAY. THINK THAT THE SNOW IS LESS LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE JET STREAK WILL HAVE MOVED OFF BY THEN SO WENT WITH THE
LOWER BLENDED POPS INSTEAD OF THE VERY WET NAM. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS IN THE SOUTHWEST.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER AIR PATTERN WAS
OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE EASTERN STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST. PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING TO NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS WAS A FASTER SOLUTION THEN
THE ECMWF. ALSO THE GFS WAS TRENDING FASTER AND THE ECMWF WAS
TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL BLEND THE TWO
MODELS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE DECREASED A DEGREE OR SO FOR THU. HIGHS WERE
DECREASED TWO TO FOUR DEGREES ON FRI...DECREASED FIVE TO SIX
DEGREES ON SAT AND INCREASED ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
VIS CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY BLOWING SNOW. CURRENTLY WORST
CONDITIONS ARE AT KFAR...WITH 2-5SM AT KGFK AND KBJI. VIS HAVE
COME UP TO VFR AT KDVL...ALTHOUGH CIGS ARE STILL MVFR. MVFR CIGS
AND VIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING...WITH SOME VIS
AROUND OR BELOW 1SM AT TIMES MAINLY AROUND KFAR. THINK THAT THE
BLOWING SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY DECREASE...WITH VIS BACK UP AND MVFR
CIGS BY LATE MORNING. THINK THAT WE SHOULD SEE SOME VFR CONDITIONS
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST ABOVE
30 KTS AT KGFK AND KFAR...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ007-
008-016-027-029-030-039-053-054.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ001>005-007-008-013>015-022-027-029-030-040.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
939 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
ALTHOUGH WEB CAMS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD STILL GETTING STREAMER SHSN
WHICH LIMIT VSBY. WAITING TO SEE IF WINDS PICK BACK UP BUT FOR NOW
WILL LET ADVISORY RIDE AND REVISIT LATER THIS AM. ADJUSTED POPS A
BIT BUT NO BIG CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
MANY OBS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STILL SHOWING 1 SM OR LESS VIS...AND
WEB CAMS IN SOME SPOTS CONTINUE TO LOOK TO HAVE POOR CONDITIONS.
THE RADAR SHOWS THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY
WEAKEN...BUT THEY WILL CONTINUE A WHILE LONGER AND WITH WINDS
STILL AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40...BLOWING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VIS ARE NOT
DOWN TO 1/4SM SO WILL LET THE BLIZZARD WARNING GO BUT HAVE
EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY
COUNTIES. THE WEST HAS SEEN WINDS COME DOWN SO LET THE WIND
ADVISORY GO. THE EAST HAS THE SHELTER OF THE TREES SO VIS IS NOT
AS BAD AND LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE IN THAT AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
SNOW SHOWERS...WIND...AND WHAT TO DO WITH HEADLINES WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST HEADACHE FOR THE SHORT TERM.
STREAKS OF SNOW CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH
POOR VISIBILITY UNDER THE HEAVIER BANDS. SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN VALLEY HAS BEEN GOING ON FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND
THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE A SHARP DECREASE IN SNOW ACTIVITY BY 12Z.
HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST TO GET RID OF THE PRECIP ALL
NIGHT. WITH WINDS AND PERIODIC LOW VIS...WILL KEEP WINTER HEADLINES
GOING THROUGH 12Z AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK LATER THIS MORNING TO SEE
IF THEY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR NOT.
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE STRONG THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS ABOVE 36
KTS STILL GOING AT FARGO AND GRAND FORKS. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE 45 KTS AT 925MB WITH EVEN HIGHER SPEEDS AT 850MB. MIXING
CONTINUES TO BE GOOD FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT...AROUND 900 TO 875MB.
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE TODAY AS THE SFC LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING.
THINK WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING AND EVEN INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH HIGHER WIND SPEEDS...THINK THAT ONCE
SNOW STOPS ACTIVELY FALLING THE VISIBILITY SITUATION WILL IMPROVE.
THUS...AS LONG AS SNOW SHOWERS STOP AS EXPECTED IT WILL MAINLY BE
A MATTER OF CHANGING OVER FROM WINTER HEADLINES TO WIND ADVISORY
AT 12Z. WILL MONITOR THE RADAR...OBS AND WEB CAMS DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS TO DETERMINE HOW TO ADJUST HEADLINES WHEN THE TIME
COMES BUT WILL KEEP THEM AS THEY ARE FOR NOW.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE QUIET AS NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLDER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING LATELY...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WHERE THEY WILL
GET THE BRUNT OF THE COLDER AIR MASS. WITH TEMPS DIPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO 10 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST...AND SOME WINDS
HANGING ON IN THAT AREA...WIND CHILLS COULD GET DOWN TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WITH ONGOING CURRENT HEADLINES WILL WAIT TO
PUT OUT ANYTHING ADDITIONAL FOR TOMORROW MORNING. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ZERO IN THE NORTHEAST BUT ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES WARMER IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE THICKNESS VALUES WILL BE
HIGHER.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST. A JET STREAK COMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING SOME LIFT
AND CREATE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER MAINLY OUR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR
WEDNESDAY. THINK THAT THE SNOW IS LESS LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE JET STREAK WILL HAVE MOVED OFF BY THEN SO WENT WITH THE
LOWER BLENDED POPS INSTEAD OF THE VERY WET NAM. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS IN THE SOUTHWEST.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER AIR PATTERN WAS
OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE EASTERN STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST. PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING TO NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS WAS A FASTER SOLUTION THEN
THE ECMWF. ALSO THE GFS WAS TRENDING FASTER AND THE ECMWF WAS
TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL BLEND THE TWO
MODELS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE DECREASED A DEGREE OR SO FOR THU. HIGHS WERE
DECREASED TWO TO FOUR DEGREES ON FRI...DECREASED FIVE TO SIX
DEGREES ON SAT AND INCREASED ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
VIS CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY BLOWING SNOW. CURRENTLY WORST
CONDITIONS ARE AT KFAR...WITH 2-5SM AT KGFK AND KBJI. VIS HAVE
COME UP TO VFR AT KDVL...ALTHOUGH CIGS ARE STILL MVFR. MVFR CIGS
AND VIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING...WITH SOME VIS
AROUND OR BELOW 1SM AT TIMES MAINLY AROUND KFAR. THINK THAT THE
BLOWING SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY DECREASE...WITH VIS BACK UP AND MVFR
CIGS BY LATE MORNING. THINK THAT WE SHOULD SEE SOME VFR CONDITIONS
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST ABOVE
30 KTS AT KGFK AND KFAR...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ007-008-016-
027-029-030-039-053-054.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>005-007-
008-013>015-022-027-029-030-040.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
652 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
MANY OBS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STILL SHOWING 1 SM OR LESS VIS...AND
WEB CAMS IN SOME SPOTS CONTINUE TO LOOK TO HAVE POOR CONDITIONS.
THE RADAR SHOWS THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY
WEAKEN...BUT THEY WILL CONTINUE A WHILE LONGER AND WITH WINDS
STILL AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40...BLOWING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VIS ARE NOT
DOWN TO 1/4SM SO WILL LET THE BLIZZARD WARNING GO BUT HAVE
EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY
COUNTIES. THE WEST HAS SEEN WINDS COME DOWN SO LET THE WIND
ADVISORY GO. THE EAST HAS THE SHELTER OF THE TREES SO VIS IS NOT
AS BAD AND LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE IN THAT AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
SNOW SHOWERS...WIND...AND WHAT TO DO WITH HEADLINES WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST HEADACHE FOR THE SHORT TERM.
STREAKS OF SNOW CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH
POOR VISIBILITY UNDER THE HEAVIER BANDS. SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN VALLEY HAS BEEN GOING ON FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND
THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE A SHARP DECREASE IN SNOW ACTIVITY BY 12Z.
HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST TO GET RID OF THE PRECIP ALL
NIGHT. WITH WINDS AND PERIODIC LOW VIS...WILL KEEP WINTER HEADLINES
GOING THROUGH 12Z AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK LATER THIS MORNING TO SEE
IF THEY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR NOT.
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE STRONG THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS ABOVE 36
KTS STILL GOING AT FARGO AND GRAND FORKS. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE 45 KTS AT 925MB WITH EVEN HIGHER SPEEDS AT 850MB. MIXING
CONTINUES TO BE GOOD FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT...AROUND 900 TO 875MB.
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE TODAY AS THE SFC LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING.
THINK WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING AND EVEN INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH HIGHER WIND SPEEDS...THINK THAT ONCE
SNOW STOPS ACTIVELY FALLING THE VISIBILITY SITUATION WILL IMPROVE.
THUS...AS LONG AS SNOW SHOWERS STOP AS EXPECTED IT WILL MAINLY BE
A MATTER OF CHANGING OVER FROM WINTER HEADLINES TO WIND ADVISORY
AT 12Z. WILL MONITOR THE RADAR...OBS AND WEB CAMS DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS TO DETERMINE HOW TO ADJUST HEADLINES WHEN THE TIME
COMES BUT WILL KEEP THEM AS THEY ARE FOR NOW.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE QUIET AS NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLDER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING LATELY...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WHERE THEY WILL
GET THE BRUNT OF THE COLDER AIR MASS. WITH TEMPS DIPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO 10 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST...AND SOME WINDS
HANGING ON IN THAT AREA...WIND CHILLS COULD GET DOWN TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WITH ONGOING CURRENT HEADLINES WILL WAIT TO
PUT OUT ANYTHING ADDITIONAL FOR TOMORROW MORNING. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ZERO IN THE NORTHEAST BUT ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES WARMER IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE THICKNESS VALUES WILL BE
HIGHER.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST. A JET STREAK COMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING SOME LIFT
AND CREATE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER MAINLY OUR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR
WEDNESDAY. THINK THAT THE SNOW IS LESS LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE JET STREAK WILL HAVE MOVED OFF BY THEN SO WENT WITH THE
LOWER BLENDED POPS INSTEAD OF THE VERY WET NAM. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS IN THE SOUTHWEST.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER AIR PATTERN WAS
OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE EASTERN STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST. PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING TO NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS WAS A FASTER SOLUTION THEN
THE ECMWF. ALSO THE GFS WAS TRENDING FASTER AND THE ECMWF WAS
TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL BLEND THE TWO
MODELS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE DECREASED A DEGREE OR SO FOR THU. HIGHS WERE
DECREASED TWO TO FOUR DEGREES ON FRI...DECREASED FIVE TO SIX
DEGREES ON SAT AND INCREASED ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
VIS CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY BLOWING SNOW. CURRENTLY WORST
CONDITIONS ARE AT KFAR...WITH 2-5SM AT KGFK AND KBJI. VIS HAVE
COME UP TO VFR AT KDVL...ALTHOUGH CIGS ARE STILL MVFR. MVFR CIGS
AND VIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING...WITH SOME VIS
AROUND OR BELOW 1SM AT TIMES MAINLY AROUND KFAR. THINK THAT THE
BLOWING SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY DECREASE...WITH VIS BACK UP AND MVFR
CIGS BY LATE MORNING. THINK THAT WE SHOULD SEE SOME VFR CONDITIONS
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST ABOVE
30 KTS AT KGFK AND KFAR...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ007-008-016-
027-029-030-039-053-054.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>005-007-
008-013>015-022-027-029-030-040.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
SNOW SHOWERS...WIND...AND WHAT TO DO WITH HEADLINES WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST HEADACHE FOR THE SHORT TERM.
STREAKS OF SNOW CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH
POOR VISIBILITY UNDER THE HEAVIER BANDS. SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN VALLEY HAS BEEN GOING ON FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND
THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE A SHARP DECREASE IN SNOW ACTIVITY BY 12Z.
HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST TO GET RID OF THE PRECIP ALL
NIGHT. WITH WINDS AND PERIODIC LOW VIS...WILL KEEP WINTER HEADLINES
GOING THROUGH 12Z AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK LATER THIS MORNING TO SEE
IF THEY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR NOT.
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE STRONG THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS ABOVE 36
KTS STILL GOING AT FARGO AND GRAND FORKS. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE 45 KTS AT 925MB WITH EVEN HIGHER SPEEDS AT 850MB. MIXING
CONTINUES TO BE GOOD FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT...AROUND 900 TO 875MB.
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE TODAY AS THE SFC LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING.
THINK WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING AND EVEN INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH HIGHER WIND SPEEDS...THINK THAT ONCE
SNOW STOPS ACTIVELY FALLING THE VISIBILITY SITUATION WILL IMPROVE.
THUS...AS LONG AS SNOW SHOWERS STOP AS EXPECTED IT WILL MAINLY BE
A MATTER OF CHANGING OVER FROM WINTER HEADLINES TO WIND ADVISORY
AT 12Z. WILL MONITOR THE RADAR...OBS AND WEB CAMS DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS TO DETERMINE HOW TO ADJUST HEADLINES WHEN THE TIME
COMES BUT WILL KEEP THEM AS THEY ARE FOR NOW.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE QUIET AS NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLDER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING LATELY...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WHERE THEY WILL
GET THE BRUNT OF THE COLDER AIR MASS. WITH TEMPS DIPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO 10 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST...AND SOME WINDS
HANGING ON IN THAT AREA...WIND CHILLS COULD GET DOWN TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WITH ONGOING CURRENT HEADLINES WILL WAIT TO
PUT OUT ANYTHING ADDITIONAL FOR TOMORROW MORNING. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ZERO IN THE NORTHEAST BUT ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES WARMER IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE THICKNESS VALUES WILL BE
HIGHER.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST. A JET STREAK COMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING SOME LIFT
AND CREATE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER MAINLY OUR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR
WEDNESDAY. THINK THAT THE SNOW IS LESS LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE JET STREAK WILL HAVE MOVED OFF BY THEN SO WENT WITH THE
LOWER BLENDED POPS INSTEAD OF THE VERY WET NAM. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS IN THE SOUTHWEST.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER AIR PATTERN WAS
OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE EASTERN STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST. PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING TO NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS WAS A FASTER SOLUTION THEN
THE ECMWF. ALSO THE GFS WAS TRENDING FASTER AND THE ECMWF WAS
TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL BLEND THE TWO
MODELS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE DECREASED A DEGREE OR SO FOR THU. HIGHS WERE
DECREASED TWO TO FOUR DEGREES ON FRI...DECREASED FIVE TO SIX
DEGREES ON SAT AND INCREASED ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUST TO AROUND 35KT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN SUBSIDE AFTER 21Z. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR ANY SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. IT WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE LATER TONIGHT ONCE SNOW SHOWERS MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA. CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH 00Z FOR ALL BUT THE WEST AND
SHOULD START TO SCATTER OUT AROUND 00Z TUE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006-014-
015-024-026-028-038-049-052.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ007-016-027-029-030-039-053-054.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NDZ008.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MNZ003-005-006-008-009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MNZ001-
002-004-007.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1133 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
LATEST SUITE OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY A CLEAR SKY WEST
AND AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS CENTRAL...WITH KMOT/KBIS ON THE
EXTREME WESTERN FRINGES OF PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
A SOLID OVERCAST SKY EXISTS FROM ROLLA TO RUGBY AND INTO
HARVEY...JAMESTOWN...AND OAKES. VERY LIGHT RADAR RETURNS IN THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND EXPECT THESE TO WANE BY 07Z- 08Z...WHICH
WAS ADVERTISED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
DRY THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT BUT REMAINING WINDY CENTRAL...HENCE
THE WIND ADVISORY LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND
30 MPH. LATEST GUIDANCE IN LINE WITH THE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUING
IN THE EAST CENTRAL UNTIL MID AFTERNOON MONDAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 915 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
WE CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND WARNING EVERYWHERE...AND REPLACED IT
WITH A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS CENTRAL ND BASED ON RECENT LAMP OUTPUT
AND THE 00-02 RAP ITERATIONS. THOSE RAP SIMULATIONS MAINTAIN WINDS
OF 40-45 KT AT 850 MB ACROSS CENTRAL ND TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY FROM ROLLA TO RUGBY...STEELE...JAMESTOWN AND OAKES. WE
THUS CARRIED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LATTER AREAS UNTIL 22 UTC
MONDAY...WHILE ONLY RUNNING IT THROUGH 12 UTC FOR THE REST OF ITS
GEOGRAPHIC EXTENT.
FORECAST WIND SPEEDS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO ALIGN WITH OUR MOST
RECENT THINKING...BUT OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE GRIDDED FORECAST TO BLEND TO RECENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND
SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
WINDS ARE DECREASING OVER WESTERN ND AS THE HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT
EASES...AND AS LOW-LEVEL STABILITY BEGINS INCREASING AS A RESULT
OF THE DIMINISHING WINDS THEN SPEEDS WILL DECREASE EVEN MORE. WE
THOUGHT ABOUT CANCELLING THE HIGH WIND WARNING OVER NORTHWESTERN
ND WITH THIS UPDATE...BUT GUSTS ARE STILL EXCEEDING 40 MPH IN THE
CROSBY AREA SO WE WILL REVISIT THAT AGAIN A BIT LATER. WE SEE NO
REASON WHY THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF ND WILL
NOT BE DONE BY ITS PLANNED 03 UTC EXPIRATION AT THE LATEST BASED
ON TRENDS THOUGH.
AS FOR THE FORECAST...IT IS LARGELY ON TRACK...SO CHANGES WITH
THIS UPDATE WERE ONLY TO BETTER REFLECT RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW NEAR THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONT DIVING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN
VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER THE CWA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
UPPER LOW STACKED OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD WITH RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS LEADING TO FAST NORTHERLY FLOW OVER AND TO THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW AREAS
OF SNOW CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE OCCURRING.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH OVER THE FAR WEST THIS EVENING...THOUGH OVER REMAINING
PARTS OF THE AREA ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MIXING OF 50-60 KT GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL SLIGHT DIMINISHING OF THE WINDS BY
DAYBREAK. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
ON MONDAY...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA WITH FAST
NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
WITH MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...THOUGH STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT WILL HAVE SOME TROUBLE MIXING DOWN WITH NEUTRAL TO WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
MONDAY EVENING THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
WINDS THIS WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US AND A STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THIS PATTERN BECOMES
SEMI-PERMANENT ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND DEFINES THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL LEAVE A BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE
RELATIVELY FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
THIS WILL MEAN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION. ONE CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...ANOTHER
CHANCE WEDNESDAY...AND ANOTHER NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS MENTIONED
MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A RAIN SNOW
MIX WEST.
QUITE A BIT OF TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE THIS
WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S SOUTHWEST...20S AND 30S
CENTRAL...AND TEENS AND 20S EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY TO
THE 20S SOUTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AT KDIK/KISN/KMOT. KBIS
WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS FROM 08Z-13Z MONDAY...AND KJMS UNTIL
17Z MONDAY. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT AT KMOT/KBIS UNTIL
12Z MONDAY...AND AT KJMS UNTIL 21Z MONDAY. EXPECT SUSTAINED
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR NDZ003-004-
011-012-019>022-034-035-042-045-046.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ005-013-023-025-036-
037-047-048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NORMAN OK
234 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST
FOCUS.
CURRENTLY... DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA... WHERE MESONET AND ASOS OBS HAVE CONSISTENTLY REPORTED
DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO ZERO AND NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS
IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS. COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY... 40 TO 50 KT...
N/NW WINDS... SEVERAL HOT SPOTS CONTINUE TO POP UP ON 3.9 IR
INDICATING ACTIVE FIRE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. AS AN ASIDE...
IMPRESSED WITH MESO GUIDANCE... SPECIFICALLY THE HRRR AND
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR/S HANDLING OF DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN
TEMPS LATE THIS MORNING... WAS NOT ANTICIPATING DEW POINTS TO REACH
ZERO LET ALONE NEGATIVE VALUES OUT WEST. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 6 PM...WHERE CONDITIONS POSE THE GREATEST
CONCERN. HOWEVER... AS INDICATED BY 3.9 IR ACTIVITY TODAY... FIRES
REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. MANY FIRES ARE
ACCIDENTAL... PLEASE USE GOOD JUDGMENT... REFRAIN FROM PERFORMING
ACTIVITIES NEAR OR OVER GRASS THAT COULD EASILY SPARK A FIRE...
SUCH AS WELDING... DRAGGING CHAINS... USING POWER TOOLS... OR
PARKING CARS ON GRASS. ALSO... KEEP YOUR BUTTS IN YOUR CAR... DO
NOT THROW CIGARETTE BUTTS OUT YOUR WINDOW.
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY... N/NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH
SUNSET... REMAINING BREEZY THROUGH THE EVENING TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND THE
EASTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO WRAP EASTWARD ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY.
W/NW WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES S/SE ALONG THE LLANO ESTACADO. EXPECT GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY... INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
CONFIDENCE IN INCREASED DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
TOWARDS THE CAPROCK WILL RESULT IN INCREASED TEMPS FROM THE
PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. HIGHS COULD EASILY
REACH THE LOWER 70S IN NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND... MILD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS A SFC TROUGH SLIDES S/SE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTLE H500 SHORT WAVE. WITH THE SHIFTING OF THE
UPPER RIDGE TOWARDS THE ROCKIES INTO SATURDAY... AN AREA OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE UPPER MISSOURI VALLEY
TOWARD THE OZARKS... ALLOWING COOLER TEMPS TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY... AS S/SW WINDS
GRADUALLY INCREASE. PRESENTLY... EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH
AND HIGHS IN THE 50S. THEREFORE... WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON NEXT
WEEKEND FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
JTK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 29 54 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 30 60 32 66 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 30 63 34 67 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 27 57 27 69 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 27 49 26 55 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 32 55 33 59 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005>008-010>013-
015>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ021-022-
033>038-044.
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ086-089-090.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
728 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO RAISE POPS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A FRONT WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES NEAR THE COAST. NEAR
TERM GUIDANCE LIKE THE HRRR AND THE RAP BOTH SHOW SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION NEAR THE COAST IN THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME (4-10AM), AS
DOES THE NEW 00Z NAM. THE FRONT IS SHALLOW WITH MOST OF THE DEEP
MOISTURE BELOW 700 MB. BUT, IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT
SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS HERE AND THERE.
PRECIPITATION WON`T MAKE IT TOO FAR INLAND THOUGH...PROBABLY NO
MORE THAN 20 MILES (TO THE COAST RANGES). FOR THIS REASON, POPS
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT EXIST FROM ROSEBURG SOUTHWARD TO THE ILLINOIS
VALLEY AND EASTWARD. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE THIS EVENING.
SPILDE
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 10/00Z TAF CYCLE...EXPECT LIFR CIGS IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN LATE TONIGHT GIVEN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.
ALONG THE COAST...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL A WEAKENING FRONT
BRINGS MVFR CIGS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...VFR EXPECTED
FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. -MSC
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 730 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016....SOUTH WINDS WILL
VEER TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE IN VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. ANOTHER WEAK WARM FRONT WILL COME
IN FROM THE SOUTH INTO THE MARINE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE BERING SEA WILL STEER A SERIES
OF FRONTS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL...OR HIGHER... CONDITIONS AFTER
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MULTIPLE MODERATE
SWELL TRAINS COMBINING WITH MODERATE WIND WAVES. WEST SWELL WILL
BUILD TO AROUND 14 FEET AT 17 SECONDS FRIDAY MORNING. -MSC/SPILDE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND ARE THICKER IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN TONIGHT,
BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FROM
FORMING IN THE SAME AREAS AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING
EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL OPEN UP THE DOOR FOR MORE
CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALSO A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THE FIRST FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. I SUSPECT THE THE MODELS, IN PARTICULAR THE NAM ARE TOO
BULLISH WITH THE QPF FIELDS ALONG THE COAST AND MAY ONLY BE THE
SACRIFICIAL LAMB. TYPICALLY WHEN FRONTS LIKE THIS RUN INTO A RIDGE
(ESPECIALLY ONE THAT IS RATHER STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR)
THEY TEND TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE, HENCE THE REASONING FOR KEEPING
POPS BELOW GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, THE OMEGA FIELDS ARE HIGHER AT THE
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD BE AN ARGUMENT FOR HIGHER
POPS. IT WILL BE INTERESTING WHAT THE HRRR SHOWS LATER THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT (CURRENT RUN ONLY GOES OUT TO 3AM PST). THE EVENING AND
NIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO REEVALUATE THIS AND INCREASE POPS ALONG THE
COAST FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING IF THERE`S STRONGER EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT
IT.
SHOWERS (IF WE GET ANY) ON WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
THE COAST. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH JUST OFF THE OREGON COAST. THE MODELS KEEP
MOST OF THE PRECIP OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING, THEN SHOWS SOME INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUSPECT THIS ALSO MAY BE OVERDONE. INSTABILITY
IS MARGINAL AT BEST AND THE TRIGGER IS WEAK OR NON- EXISTENT.
THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE`LL GET ANYTHING. SO WE`LL
KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW BUT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, LATER SHIFTS
WILL WANT TO REEVALUATE.
THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
EAST INTO THE AREA BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER ON FRIDAY, BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALL THE
PASSES. -PETRUCELLI
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A MORE WESTERLY JET STREAM
WILL BRING A WARM FRONT INLAND ON SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 5500 FEET IN OREGON AND UP TO 7000 FEET IN
THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE IN A FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON OUR FORECAST AREA SEEING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
BY MONDAY HOWEVER BOTH MODELS STRENGTHENS THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE ON ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG AND ALLOWS SOME
OVERRUNNING. AS A RESULT WE ARE KEEPING MONDAY DRY BUT RE-INTRODUCE
CHANCE POPS FOR COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE WE MAY SHIFT BACK TO A WET PATTER AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. /FB
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM
TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ370.
$$
MAS/MAP/MSC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
600 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016
AVIATION AND MARINE UPDATED
.DISCUSSION...THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND ARE THICKER IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN TONIGHT,
BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FROM
FORMING IN THE SAME AREAS AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING
EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL OPEN UP THE DOOR FOR MORE
CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALSO A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THE FIRST FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. I SUSPECT THE THE MODELS, IN PARTICULAR THE NAM ARE TOO
BULLISH WITH THE QPF FIELDS ALONG THE COAST AND MAY ONLY BE THE
SACRIFICIAL LAMB. TYPICALLY WHEN FRONTS LIKE THIS RUN INTO A RIDGE
(ESPECIALLY ONE THAT IS RATHER STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR)
THEY TEND TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE, HENCE THE REASONING FOR KEEPING
POPS BELOW GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, THE OMEGA FIELDS ARE HIGHER AT THE
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD BE AN ARGUMENT FOR HIGHER
POPS. IT WILL BE INTERESTING WHAT THE HRRR SHOWS LATER THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT (CURRENT RUN ONLY GOES OUT TO 3AM PST). THE EVENING AND
NIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO REEVALUATE THIS AND INCREASE POPS ALONG THE
COAST FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING IF THERE`S STRONGER EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT
IT.
SHOWERS (IF WE GET ANY) ON WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
THE COAST. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH JUST OFF THE OREGON COAST. THE MODELS KEEP
MOST OF THE PRECIP OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING, THEN SHOWS SOME INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUSPECT THIS ALSO MAY BE OVERDONE. INSTABILITY
IS MARGINAL AT BEST AND THE TRIGGER IS WEAK OR NON- EXISTENT.
THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE`LL GET ANYTHING. SO WE`LL
KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW BUT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, LATER SHIFTS
WILL WANT TO REEVALUATE.
THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
EAST INTO THE AREA BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER ON FRIDAY, BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALL THE
PASSES. -PETRUCELLI
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A MORE WESTERLY JETSTREAM
WILL BRING A WARM FRONT INLAND ON SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 5500 FEET IN OREGON AND UP TO 7000 FEET IN
THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWS ARE IN A FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON OUR FORECAST AREA SEEING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
BY MONDAY HOWEVER BOTH MODELS STRENGTHENS THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE ON ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG AND ALLOWS SOME
OVERRUNNING. AS A RESULT WE ARE KEEPING MONDAY DRY BUT RE-INTRODUCE
CHANCE POPS FOR COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE WE MAY SHIFT BACK TO A WET PATTER AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. /FB
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 10/00Z TAF CYCLE...EXPECT LIFR CIGS IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN LATE TONIGHT GIVEN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.
ALONG THE COAST...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL A WEAKENING FRONT
BRINGS MVFR CIGS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...VFR EXPECTED
FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. -MSC
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016....SYNOPSIS FOR THE
SOUTHERN OREGON COASTAL WATERS... SOUTH WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHWEST
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE IN VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
LIGHTRAIN IN THE OUTER WATERS. ANOTHER WEAK WARM FRONT WILL COME IN
FROM THE SOUTH INTO THE MARINE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE BERING SEA WILL STEER A SERIES
OF FRONTS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL...OR HIGHER... CONDITIONS AFTER
WEDENESDAY WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MULTIPLE MODERATE SWELL
TRAINS COMBINING WITH MODERATE WIND WAVES. WEST SWELL WILL BUILD TO
AROUND 14 FEET AT 17 SECONDS FRIDAY MORNING. -MSC
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY
FOR PZZ370.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
954 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016
UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS
.DISCUSSION...LEAVING THE CURRENT FORECAST AS-IS THIS MORNING.
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IS IN SWING OVER THE REGION WITH SOME
CASCADE AND SOUTH COAST LOCATIONS GUSTING FROM THE EAST TO AROUND
30 MPH. CURRY COUNTY COASTAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 70S.
LATEST HRRR FORECASTS INDICATE A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD TAKE
OVER ON THE SOUTH COAST BEACHES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS SO DO
NOT ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES THERE WILL GET TO MUCH HIGHER.
MORNING SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED THE UMPQUA...ILLINOIS AND SCOTT
VALLEYS IN A LOW STRATUS WITH SOME FOG BEING REPORTED BUT NOT
WIDESPREAD. DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE LOW CLOUDS ARE TOO THICK SO WE
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING BY EARLY AFTERNOON AREA-
WIDE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH TO 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY...WITH MORE OF THE SAME THROUGH MID WEEK. STAVISH
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 08/18Z TAF CYCLE...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE
AN AVIATION HAZARD AT WEST SIDE TERMINALS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
SURFACE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND WINDS ABOUT 1500 FEET OFF THE GROUND
ARE SOUTHEASTERLY AT 30-40KT. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT
ROSEBURG FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT SHOULD CLEAR TO VFR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. VFR WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
THE UMPQUA VALLEY AND PERHAPS THE SCOTT, ILLINOIS AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE ROGUE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE VFR. SPILDE
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 1000 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016...STEEP SEAS
DOMINATED BY A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL BUILD INTO THE WATERS
TODAY. A THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE NORTH AND PUSH
INLAND BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT BUT BECOME
SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS BEYOND 130W. A WEAK
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY...THEN ANOTHER
STRONGER FRONT WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS.
A FRONT MAY NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE
SHOWING THIS FRONT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE WATERS
BUT THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS AND SEAS. A
STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND STEEP SEAS. ANOTHER STEEP LONG
PERIOD SWELL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. SPILDE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016/ THE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW A FIVE WAVE PATTERN
AROUND THE GLOBE WITH MODERATE AMPLITUDES. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE BUT LONGITUDINAL FLOW WILL INCREASE...CREATING A MORE
BLOCKY PATTERN AROUND THE GLOBE. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE...BUT WILL SLOW DOWN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A
STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA.
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST...AMPLIFYING THROUGH TODAY.
IT WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE MEDFORD CWA LATER THIS MORNING. DRY
CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW...AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND OVER THE RIDGES. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS...WHERE WARM AIR ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN
INVERSIONS...WHICH WILL ALLOW NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO DEVELOP IN SOME LOCATIONS. SINCE THIS IS LATE IN THE
SEASON FOR SUCH PATTERNS...THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BURN OFF
IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
USUALLY AIR STAGNATION IS A CONCERN IN A PATTERN LIKE THIS...BUT
GIVEN THE EXPECTED AFTERNOON MIXING...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST...AND WEAK SHORT WAVES
EJECTING FROM THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE OVER THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. TYPICALLY THE FIRST SHORT WAVE AFTER A RIDGE HAS
LITTLE EFFECT OTHER THAN HERALDING THE END OF OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...AND THESE LOOK TOO WEAK TO DO MUCH OF ANYTHING. THE SHORT
WAVES THAT FOLLOW WILL ALSO BE WEAK AND MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE
DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE 08/00Z GFS SOLUTION
LIMITS PRECIPITATION TO THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN
A WEAK FRONT BRINGS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE COAST.
MEANWHILE THE 08/00Z EC SOLUTION KEEPS IT DRY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
EXCEPT FOR SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEAR THE COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IT THEN PUSHES A WETTER COLD FRONT ONSHORE FRIDAY MORNING.
TYPICALLY THE MODELS TEND TO BREAK DOWN A STRONG RIDGE TOO
QUICKLY...AND KEEP PUSHING THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION BACK WITH
EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN. THAT APPEARS TO BE THE CASE HERE...BUT THE
DRY EVENT HAS TO END AT SOME POINT. SO...WILL BRING SOME CHANCE
POPS ONSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
$$
MAS/MTS/JRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
918 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...LEAVING THE CURRENT FORECAST AS-IS THIS MORNING.
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IS IN SWING OVER THE REGION WITH SOME
CASCADE AND SOUTH COAST LOCATIONS GUSTING FROM THE EAST TO AROUND
30 MPH. CURRY COUNTY COASTAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 70S.
LATEST HRRR FORECASTS INDICATE A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD TAKE
OVER ON THE SOUTH COAST BEACHES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS SO DO
NOT ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES THERE WILL GET TO MUCH HIGHER.
MORNING SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED THE UMPQUA...ILLINOIS AND SCOTT
VALLEYS IN A LOW STRATUS WITH SOME FOG BEING REPORTED BUT NOT
WIDESPREAD. DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE LOW CLOUDS ARE TOO THICK SO WE
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING BY EARLY AFTERNOON AREA-
WIDE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH TO 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY...WITH MORE OF THE SAME THROUGH MID WEEK. STAVISH
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 08/12Z TAF CYCLE...IN DOUGLAS COUNTY LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIFT LATE THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE VFR CONTINUES
UNDER CLEAR SKY. PATCHY SHALLOW FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE ILLINOIS
VALLEY AND MOSTLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ROGUE VALLEY. AT KMFR
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR...HOWEVER THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG AROUND 15Z MONDAY BUT GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
CONTINUED VFR SO HAVE KEPT FOG OUT OF KMFR TAF FOR NOW. /SVEN
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 350 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016...A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH ALONG THE COAST IS BRINGING LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. LIGHT
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTH THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS BEYOND 130W. STEEP
SEAS DOMINATED BY LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL BUILD INTO THE
WATERS MONDAY AS A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL OF AROUND 10 FEET AT 16
SECONDS BUILDS INTO THE WATERS. A FRONT MAY NEAR THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY THEN MOVE INTO THE WATERS THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VARIABILITY WITH THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM THOUGH AND CONFIDENCE
IS LOW TO MODERATE ON DETAILS FOR WAVE AND WIND FORECASTS DURING
THIS PERIOD. OVERALL, EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SEAS LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STEEP SEAS DURING THIS PERIOD
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. ANOTHER
STEEP LONG PERIOD SWELL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. /SVEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016/ THE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW A FIVE WAVE PATTERN
AROUND THE GLOBE WITH MODERATE AMPLITUDES. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE BUT LONGITUDINAL FLOW WILL INCREASE...CREATING A MORE
BLOCKY PATTERN AROUND THE GLOBE. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE...BUT WILL SLOW DOWN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A
STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA.
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST...AMPLIFYING THROUGH TODAY.
IT WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE MEDFORD CWA LATER THIS MORNING. DRY
CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW...AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND OVER THE RIDGES. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS...WHERE WARM AIR ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN
INVERSIONS...WHICH WILL ALLOW NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO DEVELOP IN SOME LOCATIONS. SINCE THIS IS LATE IN THE
SEASON FOR SUCH PATTERNS...THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BURN OFF
IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
USUALLY AIR STAGNATION IS A CONCERN IN A PATTERN LIKE THIS...BUT
GIVEN THE EXPECTED AFTERNOON MIXING...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST...AND WEAK SHORT WAVES
EJECTING FROM THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE OVER THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. TYPICALLY THE FIRST SHORT WAVE AFTER A RIDGE HAS
LITTLE EFFECT OTHER THAN HERALDING THE END OF OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...AND THESE LOOK TOO WEAK TO DO MUCH OF ANYTHING. THE SHORT
WAVES THAT FOLLOW WILL ALSO BE WEAK AND MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE
DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE 08/00Z GFS SOLUTION
LIMITS PRECIPITATION TO THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN
A WEAK FRONT BRINGS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE COAST.
MEANWHILE THE 08/00Z EC SOLUTION KEEPS IT DRY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
EXCEPT FOR SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEAR THE COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IT THEN PUSHES A WETTER COLD FRONT ONSHORE FRIDAY MORNING.
TYPICALLY THE MODELS TEND TO BREAK DOWN A STRONG RIDGE TOO
QUICKLY...AND KEEP PUSHING THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION BACK WITH
EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN. THAT APPEARS TO BE THE CASE HERE...BUT THE
DRY EVENT HAS TO END AT SOME POINT. SO...WILL BRING SOME CHANCE
POPS ONSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR ORZ021.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1022 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH A BROAD AND MOIST
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM EST MONDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BACKED A BIT IN THE
NEAR TERM AS IT PERTAINS TO NWFS ALONG THE TN LINE...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN RECENT MRX RADAR TRENDS ACROSS THE SMOKIES.
LIKEWISE...12Z NAM REMAINS CONSISTENT IN THAT IT FAVORS SHRA
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NC FTHILLS/PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON AS A
RATHER POTENT CHANNELED VORT LOBE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION.
THUS...OPTED TO TAILOR BACK POPS A BIT OVER THE MTNS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...WHICH DID RESULT IN MINOR REDUCTIONS OF SNOW
TOTALS...HOWEVER STILL AT WARNING CRITERIA FOR THE CURRENTLY
WARNED ZONES. OTHERWISE...INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO
THE AFTERNOON PER THE NAM AND LATEST HRRR WHICH FAVORS SHRA AND
PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NO OTHER
SIG CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP UPPER TROUGH
WITH EMBEDDED CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST. THE TROUGH WILL
EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING A COLD
FRONT WITH IT WHICH WILL PUSH THRU OUR CWFA TODAY. LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS ARE SEEN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO A CHANNELED
POCKET OF VORT AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH. THE VORT MAX WILL
PUSH EASTWARD ACRS THE CWFA LATER TODAY...AND STRONG QG FORCING WILL
ACCOMPANY IT THROUGH THE AREA...AS WILL PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF A LIMITING FACTOR EVEN EAST OF THE
MTNS. FALLING HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW LAPSE RATES TO INCREASE DURING
THE DAY AS WELL. A BULLSEYE OF CAPE VALUES UP TO NEAR 200 J/KG
IS SHOWN ON BOTH NAM AND GFS...THE GFS HAVING TRENDED TOWARD
THE NAM WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY UNSTABLE FOR MONDAY OVER
THE PAST FEW RUNS. THIS INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE UPPER
FORCING...LENDS CONFIDENCE TO SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND SPREADING
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ARE SURPRISINGLY
UNRESPONSIVE...THE HI-RES WRF WINDOWS BASICALLY SUPPORTING ONLY
ISOLATED/SCHC POPS DURING THE DAY. I STILL FEEL POPS SIMILAR TO
THOSE FROM THE PREV FCST ARE WARRANTED. INCLUDED A LOW THUNDER
CHANCE OVER WRN NC BASED ON PEAK CAPES.
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN STEADILY AT 850MB THRU THE DAY. BASED ON
FAVORED BLEND /MOSTLY SREF/...TEMPS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY...WITH VALLEYS AND THE
PIEDMONT MANAGING TO WARM ENOUGH THAT ANY PRECIP WILL INITIALLY
BE RAIN. STILL LOOKS LIKE SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. SNOW LEVELS REACH THE VALLEY FLOOR AROUND SUNSET. WITH
THE LEADING SHOT OF UPPER FORCING DEPARTING THIS EVENING...PRECIP
CHANCES TAPER OFF IN THE PIEDMONT...AND WITH TEMPS REMAINING SO WARM
THIS ROUND SHOULD END AS RAIN. HOWEVER...WHILE MODEL QPF RESPONSE
IS AGAIN QUITE LOW...A SECOND VORT LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
CYCLONE WILL DIVE THRU THE TENN VALLEY THIS EVENING BEFORE SWINGING
ACROSS WESTERN NC IN THE WEE HOURS TUE. I FELT THIS DEPICTED WAVE
APPEARED STRONG ENOUGH TO BE ABLE TO GENERATE A FEW PIEDMONT SHOWERS
FROM THE STILL-MOIST LOW LEVELS. BY THE TIME THIS MOVES THRU...TEMPS
SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. HOWEVER ACCUMULATION IS NOT LIKELY.
WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE AN ADDITIONAL FACTOR FOR THE TENN
BORDER AREAS. THIS WILL GET UNDERWAY THIS MORNING AND REMAIN
STEADY...BUT THE LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER AND STRENGTHEN IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHERMORE THAT SECOND PERIOD OF UPPER
FORCING MAY ENHANCE THE UPSLOPE-FORCED PRECIP RATES EVEN MORE. I
BLENDED IN MORE OF THE CAM/HI-RES GUIDANCE IN ORDER TO BETTER
CAPTURE THE TERRAIN INFLUENCE. NEW SNOW TOTALS MEET WARNING
CRITERIA IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE
FCST. THUS...A WINTER STORM WARNING IS BEING RAISED FOR THE TENN
BORDER ZONES. AVERY IS OMITTED SINCE THE CAM GUIDANCE PLACED MORE OF
THE SNOW WEST AND SOUTH OF THE COUNTY. ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THRU 12Z TUE FOR AREAS THAT WERE PREVIOUSLY IN THE ADVISORY...BUT
THAT DO NOT MEET WARNING CRITERIA. THE WARNING COULD BE EXTENDED
TO HIGHLIGHT THE CONTINUING THREAT OF NW FLOW THRU MIDWEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...DEEP UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE AREA TUE AND
SLOWLY SLIDES EAST ON WED. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THRU
THE TROF AND ACROSS THE AREA BOTH DAYS. SURGES OF CAA AND STRONG NW
FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORT WAVES. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF NW
FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NC MTNS BOTH DAYS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
BREAK CONTAINMENT AND SPREAD ACROSS THE FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT...AND
POSSIBLY SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL WITH THE RELATIVELY DEEP STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT DEVELOP. DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMS FROM ANY
SNOW SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. HOWEVER...WITH THE
LONG DURATION OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTNS...AMOUNTS WILL BE UP
TO 4 INCHES IN THE USUAL LOCATIONS OF THE NRN MTNS...WITH 1 TO 2
INCHES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE TN BORDER BY THE TIME THE SNOW TAPERS OFF
WED NITE. COULD SEE SOME CLOUDS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS ON WED BUT NO
SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED THAT DAY. HIGHS TUE WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THEN FALL TO 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON WED AS
THE COLDEST PART OF THE AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOWS 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUE NITE FALL TO 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WED NITE. WITH THE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING THRU THE
PERIOD...WIND CHILL VALUES FALL INTO THE ADVISORY RANGE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS TUE NITE...AND DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS ON WED
NITE...WITH WARNING LEVEL WIND CHILLS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE OVERALL
PATTERN IN THE MEDIUM RANGE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT...THERE IS QUITE
A SPREAD IN THE DETAILS. A LONG WAVE TROF REMAINS OVER THE ERN CONUS
THRU THE PERIOD. THE FLOW FLATTENS SLIGHTLY ON THU AS THE SHORT WAVE
FROM THE SHORT RANGE MOVES EAST...THEN DEEPENS AGAIN FRI AND SAT AS
ANOTHER SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DIG INTO THE TROF. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER
AND STRONGER WITH THE TROF AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW DIVES INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC. HEIGHTS
THEN RISE ON SUN IN THE GFS AS THE TROF AXIS MOVES EAST...WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS HEIGHTS LOW AS THE TROF ONLY SLOWLY MOVES EAST.
AT THE SFC...THE GUIDANCE AGREES ON A CLIPPER SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
AREA...BUT THE GFS IS FASTER AND WEAKER WITH THE SYSTEM WHILE THE
ECMWF IS STRONGER AND SLOWER. BOTH ALSO HAVE A REINFORCING VERY COLD
AIR MASS MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM...BUT THE GFS BRINGS IT IN
SOONER AND MODERATES IT FASTER. GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES....HAVE GONE
WITH A GUIDANCE BLEND. THIS MEANS A DRY FCST FOR THU...WITH CHANCE
POP FOR THE TN BORDER COUNTIES FRI AND FRI NITE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POP ELSEWHERE...THEN DRY FCST AGAIN FOR SAT AND SUN. EVEN THOUGH
TEMPS REMAIN NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD...DO HAVE A WARMING TREND THRU
SAT WITH COOLING AGAIN FOR SUN. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL AGAIN
APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SAT NITE. THAT
SAID...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST GIVEN THE WIDE RANGE IN THE
GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...MAINLY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PRECEDE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE SE CONUS. INCREASING MIDLEVEL CLOUDS
WILL BE SEEN THRU MIDDAY...WHEN A VORT LOBE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
TROUGH BEGINS TO PASS OVER THE SITES. A PERIOD OF LOWER CLOUD
BASES ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CU WILL DEVELOP OVERHEAD IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER LIFT AND STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THERE
IS ALSO A CHANCE OF LOW VFR SHRA...AND A NONZERO CHANCE OF A TS
AND MVFR CIG. CHANCE IS IN THE TEMPO RANGE AT ALL SITES AT THEIR
PEAK...BUT INCLUDED VCSH SURROUNDING THE TEMPO. CHANCES TAPER OFF IN
THE EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE VORT LOBE...BUT WITH FALLING TEMPS
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ANY REMNANT SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH SN
BEFORE ENDING. THAT CHANCE IS TOO LOW ENOUGH TO MENTION. WINDS WILL
BE NEARLY DUE W...BUT MORE LIKELY S OF W WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE N.
AT KAVL AND IN THE MOUNTAINS...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH THE PASSING
UPPER DISTURBANCE IS A LITTLE EARLIER IN THE DAY...BUT CHANCES
AT KAVL ARE STILL ONLY IN TEMPO RANGE ON THIS ACCOUNT. COOLER
TEMPS WILL SUPPORT ALL SN ON RIDGETOPS AND A RASN MIX IN THE
LOWER VALLEYS /AND KAVL/. ONSET OF WHAT LOOKS TO BE A PROLONGED
NW FLOW SNOW EVENT IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS BACK IN
THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE AND COLD ADVECTION STRENGTHENS. THE
BETTER CHANCES WILL BE IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS...BUT A LOW CHANCE
OF ACCUMULATING -SHSN EXISTS AT KAVL AFTER SUNSET. HANDLING THIS
WITH PROB30. BRISK FLOW ACRS THE MTNS IS PROGGED TO RESULT IN A
RARE CROSSWIND AT KAVL...WITH A FEW GUSTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
OUTLOOK...SEVERAL STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA THRU WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
AND COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE THERE ARE HIGH CHANCES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
15-21Z 21-03Z 03-09Z 09-12Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ033-053-
062-063.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ033-048>052-058-059-062.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ048>052-058-
059.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1039 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ROTATING THROUGH
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH TRAILING SHORTWAVE SLIDING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS
INDICATING AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS DRIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
MID AND LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WITH THIS WAVE. WOULD EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO SLIDE OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AS
THE SHORTWAVE DRIFTS OFF INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA/SOUTHERN IOWA BY
EVENING. STILL SEEING SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THESE SLIDE INTO
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA DURING THE EVENING...THOUGH BEING
MAINLY INSTABILITY DRIVEN MAY BECOME LESS NUMEROUS BY MID EVENING.
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY HANDLED TODAYS SYSTEM VERY
POORLY...OVERESTIMATING QPF AMOUNTS AND MISPLACING PRECIPITATION TOO
FAR TO THE EAST. CURRENT EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AND RAP HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE ON CURRENT TRENDS SO FOLLOWED THEM MORE CLOSELY FOR THE
FORECAST INTO TONIGHT. WHAT HAS VERIFIED BETTER TODAY HAS BEEN THE
WINDS...WITH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET. EVEN
SO...VISIBILITIES HAVE REMAINED JUST EITHER SIDE OF 2 MILES EVEN
WHEN SNOW IS OCCURRING AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABOVE FREEZING AND
MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS SETTLED AND BECOME WET...PREVENTING ANY LOFTING
OF THE SNOW. AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...MODELS...IF THEY
CAN BE BELIEVED...STILL HINTING AT SOME DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW IN
OUR EAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER MINNESOTA ROTATES SOUTHWARD. THE QUESTION BECOMES WILL THIS
BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO AREAS IN THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNING. BASED ON TODAYS TRENDS WOULD THINK THAT IT
IS ON THE LOW END OF PROBABILITY...BUT AFTER COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES ELECTED TO LEAVE THE HEADLINE IN PLACE FOR
NOW...THOUGH DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE WARNING. DEPENDENT ON THE
TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING...FUTURE SHIFT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE
HEADLINE AS NEEDED. IN ANY EVENT...ANY SNOWFALL LOOKS TO REMAIN VERY
LIGHT...AT GENERALLY AROUND A HALF AN INCH OR LESS.
OTHERWISE...THE STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY...BEFORE TAPERING DOWNWARD FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
ANY VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST IN OUR FAR EAST THROUGH MID
DAY...THEN COME TO AND END BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
ON MONDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS FAR
EAST TO LOWER 30S FAR WEST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
AGAIN TODAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN RUNNING
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FAIRLY PRONOUNCED
SINE WAVE ACROSS THE CONUS...BRINGING COLD WEATHER TO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS...AND WARM WEATHER TO THE WESTERN HALF. WE WILL
BE STUCK IN-BETWEEN THESE TWO AIRMASS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
WEAK IMPULSES OF WARMER AIR TRYING TO MOVE EAST LEADING TO LIGHT
SNOW CHANCES. AGAIN...GIVEN THE SUBTLE NATURE OF THESE
WAVE...MODELS HAVING A HARD TIME FIGURING OUT WHEN THE BEST FOCUS
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND. CONSIDERABLE OSCILLATIONS IN
ECMWF/GFS GUIDANCE CONTINUES...AND AT THIS POINT...CAN ONLY SEE
HAVING SLIGHT TO LOW END CHC POPS. OF MORE CERTAINTY IS THAT NO
MAJOR SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEMS ARE ON THE HORIZON THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL
MINNESOTA MAY BE IN THE TEENS...WHILE READINGS IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA COULD CLIMB INTO THE 30S EACH DAY. TODAYS GUIDANCE HAS
NUDGED COLDER AIR A BIT FURTHER WESTWARD...SO AS A RESULT
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO TRENDED A COUPLE DEGREES COLDER FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
BLOWING SNOW WITH WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AT TIMES MAY CAUSE BRIEF
IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MONDAY.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR SDZ055-056-062-
067-071.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR SDZ038-039-052>054-
058>061-064>066-068>070.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR SDZ040.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ098.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-
089-090-097.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR IAZ001-012-020-
031.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR IAZ002-003-013-014-
021-022-032.
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR NEZ014.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR NEZ013.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
337 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AND SQUALLS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST WED-6 PM EST
THU FOR HERKIMER/HAMILTON COS...
FOR TODAY...A DOUBLE BARREL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS A COASTAL LOW
PASSES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD. AT THE SAME TIME A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL BANDS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW TO MOVE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA THIS MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT A
DUSTING TO PERHAPS TWO INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. ONCE THE
SURFACE LOW PASSES BY THERE WILL BE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDING BACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
FEATURE COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLDER AIR FUNNELING
ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. HERKIMER
AND HAMILTON COUNTIES CAN GENERALLY EXPECT 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION BY LATE TODAY. HIGHS TODAY ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST WED-6 PM EST
THU FOR HERKIMER/HAMILTON COS...
FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE FA WITH A LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND EXPECTED TO STRETCH ACROSS NORTHERN
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES THIS EVENING AND THEN SETTLE
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY...AND SW HAMILTON
COUNTY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMS BY LATE
THU IN THE ADVISORY AREA SHOULD RANGE FROM 4-8 INCHES OVER A 36+
HOUR PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS ACROSS CENTRAL HERKIMER
COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WED NT INTO THU ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES. IN
THESE AREAS...ADDITIONAL COATINGS OF A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE IN THE MAINLY IN THE TEENS
EXCEPT 5 TO 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD
BECOME MULTIBAND AND SHIFT TO OUR WEST AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS
THU NT. THEN ON FRI...WINDS WILL BE BACKING IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. SO...SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN FROM NW TO SE LATE FRI. IT WILL ALREADY BE COLD...WITH THU
NT/FRI AM MINS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. WIND CHILL
VALUES COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS IN PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK FRI. THEN ON FRI...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO
REACH THE 20S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...COLDEST ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY COLD AS ARCTIC AIR FUNNELS
ACROSS THE FA. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO 15 BELOW ZERO TO 15
ABOVE ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS ZERO TO 25 BELOW ZERO. THUS WIND CHILL
ADVISORYS MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY...THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER
SEASON WILL POUR INTO UPSTATE NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SATURDAY...AS A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX SWINGS ACROSS NEW YORK AND
NEW ENGLAND. THE CORE OF THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE
REGION...ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF BRUTALLY COLD AIR TO IMPACT THE
REGION. IN FACT...850 HPA TEMPS ARE SHOWN BY SEVERAL MODELS TO
DROP TO -30 TO -35 DEGREES C. THESE TEMPS COULD BE RECORD COLD
LEVELS FOR 850 HPA TEMPS AT ALBANY...AS THE COLDEST 850 HPA TEMP
MEASURED AT KALY IS -30 C ON A FEW PAST OCCASIONS.
TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE STEADY/FALLING THE ENTIRE DAY. VALLEY
AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MORNING NEAR 10...AND FALL THROUGH THE
SINGLE DIGITS...WITH HIGH TERRAIN AREAS BELOW ZERO THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. IN ADDITION...GUSTY W-NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WILL MAKE
FOR VERY COLD WIND CHILLS LEVELS. IT SHOULD BE DRY...HOWEVER...WITH
NO PRECIP EXPECTED...AND A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.
FOR SAT NIGHT...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE BITTER COLD TEMPS AND
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. LOWS TEMPS WILL FALL TO -5 TO
-15 DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS...AND -10 TO -20 OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THESE TEMPS ARE IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING THERE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ALL
NIGHT...AND SOME AREAS HAVE LITTLE SNOW PACK IN PLACE. ALONG WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS -20 TO -30
DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS AND -30 TO -50 IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WIND CHILL WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS DANGER IN THE HWO STATEMENT.
TEMPS WILL RISE ON SUNDAY TO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHS IN MOST
AREAS...ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. ALTHOUGH IT WON/T BE
QUITE AS WINDY...THERE WILL STILL BE A BREEZE...AND WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL STILL BE RATHER LOW. WINDS MAY FINALLY START TO DIMINISH
ON SUNDAY NIGHT....AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW...EXPECT PARTS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WILL BE -5 TO -10 DEGREES.
TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE MODERATING VERY QUICKLY ON MONDAY...AS THE COLD
CORE SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH INTO THE 20S
FOR MOST AREAS FOR HIGHS. AT THIS POINT...THERE IS A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT SPEED/TRACK
OF A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...BUT THIS IS STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN.
BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST GETS MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH MAY START TO TURN UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AND MAY MERGE/PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
HEADING TOWARDS THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z GEFS/00Z GGEM ALL HINT
AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF QPF WITH THE SYSTEM
WHICH COULD TRACK OVER/CLOSE TO THE REGION. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z GFS
HAS THESE SYSTEMS STAYING SEPARATE...AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
GENERALLY REMAINING SOUTH/EAST OF THE REGION. IF IT OCCURS AS SHOWN
IN SOME OF THE GEFS MEMBERS OR LATEST ECMWF...P-TYPE WOULD BE A
MAJOR ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESP CONSIDERING THE 00Z ECMWF
SOLUTION...WHICH COULD BRING SNOW/MIXED PRECIP/RAIN...AND
POTENTIALLY BACK TO ANY OR ALL OF THE ABOVE. THE STORM TRACK...WHICH
IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...WILL DETERMINE THE EXACT P-TYPE AND
AMOUNTS...AND IT COULD WIND UP TRACKING OVER I-95 OR THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...IT/S PROBABLY WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE
VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING THIS WEEKEND WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE
AT LOW LEVELS...SO A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP IS CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY. DUE TO THIS STILL BEING DAYS 7-8 AND LARGE AMOUNTS OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM TRACK/TIMING...WILL NOT INCLUDE IN HWO
JUST YET...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR MODEL TRENDS. HAVE
GONE WITH HIGH CHC POPS FOR NOW BETWEEN MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY TUESDAY AFTN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP THESE RATHER
SCATTERED IN COVERAGE...BRIEF IN DURATION...AND LIGHT IN
INTENSITY.
BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE...WILL
INCLUDE TEMPO FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR ALL TAF SITES. WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY IFR AT THIS TIME DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE OF SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT CAN/T TOTALLY RULE IT OUT FOR KALB OR KPSF.
LIGHT OR CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES.
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK MAINLY
VFR WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 3500-4000 FT...ALTHOUGH SOME PERIODS OF
MVFR DUE TO SOMEWHAT LOWER CIGS OR PASSING SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. S-SW WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 5-10 KTS BY THE MID
TO LATE MORNING HOURS. SKIES WILL START TO CLEAR OUT SOMEWHAT FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WEST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
SCATTERED -SHSN. BREEZY.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED -SHSN.
BREEZY.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.
WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY
ONE LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.
WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:
ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES
GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015
FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979
FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979
FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...KL/11
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...11/KL
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1238 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT...AND
PASS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES.
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE
OF AN ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1225 AM EST...SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WERE MOVING EAST FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY.
EXPECT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER. A SLIGHTLY MORE
SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE MIGHT ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY TOWARD
DAYBREAK.
EITHER WAY LOOK FOR AROUND AN INCH OR TWO OF NEW SNOWFALL
OVERNIGHT IN AREAS WHERE THE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST THE LONGEST WITH
A DUSTING TO AN INCH ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES LOOK AS IF THEY HAVE BOTTOMED OUT FOR THE NIGHT AS
WE UNDERGO SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S VALLEYS...UPPER TEENS TO 20 ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY
TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT GENERALLY BELOW 10 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST WED-6 PM EST
THU FOR HERKIMER/HAMILTON COS...
WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERTED TROUGH/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. A BAND OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW WILL LIKELY PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE.
AN ADDITIONAL INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING FOR AREAS FROM
ABOUT THE HUDSON RIVER WEST...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES TO THE
EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS...WHERE A BIT MORE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE INFUSED INTO THIS SYSTEM.
THEN...AFTER THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE
MORNING...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE QUITE COLD...WITH H500 TEMPS
DROPPING TO AROUND OR COLDER THAN -35 C. WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
LAKES...AND LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME RATHER STEEP.
SO...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED HEAVIER SQUALLS
POSSIBLE...ESP WITH SOME INCREASED FORCING FROM THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. THE SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS MAY BE MORE
PERSISTENT ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE BERKSHIRES...SOUTHERN VT
AND LITCHFIELD HILLS...WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES COULD OCCUR
IN SOME AREAS.
ALSO...WITH THE REMNANT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING OVER THE
REGION...NORTHERN AREAS MAY ALSO BECOME INFLUENCED BY SOME MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION. THIS MAY ENHANCE EXISTING LAKE
ENHANCED/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS/BANDS ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COS IN THE AFTERNOON...WHERE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW COULD
OCCUR. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED...AND STARTS
NOONTIME WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INITIAL HYBRID
SNOWFALL...BEFORE IT TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A PURE LAKE EFFECT
EVENT FOR WED NT-THU.
MAX TEMPS THU MAY ACTUALLY BRIEFLY SPIKE INTO THE MID 30S IN SOME
VALLEY AREAS DUE TO DEEP MIXING IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING
BOUNDARY...WITH MAINLY 20S TO LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST AT 15-25
MPH...WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESP WITH ANY SNOW
SHOWERS.
WED NT-THU...IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSAGE...A COLD NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DOMINATE. IT
APPEARS THAT A LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COS WED EVENING...BEFORE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HERKIMER CO...AND SW HAMILTON CO LATER AT
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMS BY LATE THU IN THE
ADVISORY AREA SHOULD RANGE FROM 4-8 INCHES OVER A 36+ HOUR
PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS ACROSS CENTRAL HERKIMER CO.
ELSEWHERE...SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WED
NT INTO THU...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FILAMENTS BREAKING OFF
THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES. IN
THESE AREAS...ADDITIONAL COATINGS TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN SOME OF
THESE AREAS.
THU NT-FRI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD BECOME MULTIBAND AND SHIFT TO
OUR WEST AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS THU NT. THEN ON FRI...WINDS
WILL BE BACKING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT.
SO...SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FROM NW TO SE LATE FRI.
IT WILL ALREADY BE COLD...WITH THU NT/FRI AM MINS FALLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT ZERO TO 5 BELOW
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. WIND CHILL VALUES COULD APPROACH ADVISORY
LEVELS IN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK FRI. THEN
ON FRI...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 20S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...COLDEST ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED STARTS OUT WITH COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE WINTER
SEASON WORKING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT VIA A STRONG
COLD FRONT. THIS FEATURE COULD TRIGGER LOCALIZED SNOW
SQUALLS...MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...
SINGLE NUMBERS MOST NORTHERN AREAS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS BEEN MOST BULLISH WITH THE COLD...INDICATING
-30C AIR REACHING INTO THE CAPITAL REGION BY SATURDAY!
SATURDAY WILL BE A WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD DAY. ANY SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES NOT RISING MUCH
(IF AT ALL) ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE AROUND ZERO ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACK PARK...SINGLE NUMBERS MOST OTHER
ELEVATED AREAS...10-15 ALBANY SOUTHWARD.
THE WIND WILL LIKELY MAKE IT FEEL QUITE A BIT COLDER...WITH WIND CHILLS
BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE...INTO THE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS ZONE (LOWER THAN -30)
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR ELEVATED REGION.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND EVEN COLDER. LOWS
WILL LOOK TO BE BELOW ZERO MOST EVERYWHERE...0 TO 10 BELOW
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...10 TO 20 BELOW NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
THE WIND WILL ABATE SOME...BUT STRONG ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO PRODUCE
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ACROSS MOST AREAS.
SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...LESS BREEZY BUT STILL VERY COLD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY.
AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW THE FRIGID AIR MASS TO BEGIN TO MODERATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS
BY LATE MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP THESE RATHER
SCATTERED IN COVERAGE...BRIEF IN DURATION...AND LIGHT IN
INTENSITY.
BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE...WILL
INCLUDE TEMPO FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR ALL TAF SITES. WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY IFR AT THIS TIME DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE OF SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT CAN/T TOTALLY RULE IT OUT FOR KALB OR KPSF.
LIGHT OR CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES.
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK MAINLY
VFR WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 3500-4000 FT...ALTHOUGH SOME PERIODS OF
MVFR DUE TO SOMEWHAT LOWER CIGS OR PASSING SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. S-SW WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 5-10 KTS BY THE MID
TO LATE MORNING HOURS. SKIES WILL START TO CLEAR OUT SOMEWHAT FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WEST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
SCATTERED -SHSN. BREEZY.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED -SHSN.
BREEZY.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.
WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY
ONE LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.
WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:
ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES
GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015
FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979
FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979
FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL
CLIMATE...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1228 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST PASSES WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFTS
SLOWLY NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED WITH THIS UPDATE.
THE NEW 00Z NAM CONTINUES THE TREND OF VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALL HIGH RES
GUIDANCE...INCLUDE THE HIRES NAM...HRRR...EXPERIMENTAL
HRRR...AND RAP ARE ONLY INDICATING SOME LIGHT SNOW THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE SREF INDICATE A
MEAN SNOWFALL BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA.
LATEST RADAR AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ALSO SUPPORT THE
CANCELLATION OF THE ADVISORY. RADAR RETURNS HAVE GENERALLY
WEAKENED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS JUST SOME FLURRIES BEING
REPORTED.
HAVE LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS TO GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH INLAND TO
1 TO 2 INCHES NEAR THE COAST...ALTHOUGH IT COULD END UP BEING
CLOSER TO AN INCH THERE. THE LATEST SNOWFALL FORECAST MAY STILL BE
ON THE HIGH SIDE WITH THE POSSIBILITY MUCH OF THE AREA ONLY A
RECEIVES COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH.
THE LOCAL AREA IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...ONE ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND ONE ABOUT 175 MILES
SOUTH OF THE LONG ISLAND. A MESO HIGH IS LOCATED OVER NEW
ENGLAND...WHICH IS HELPING TO PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE AND PREVENT ANY
SIGNIFICANT LIFT FOR GOOD SNOW GROWTH. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
RELATIVE MINIMUM IN VORTICITY ADVECTION AS A STRONG PIECE OF
ENERGY MOVES OFFSHORE AT H5...AND ANOTHER APPROACHES FROM THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. THINKING IS THIS H5 SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING AND THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT COULD HELP TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS IT
NEARS THE AREA.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S INLAND TO THE MID AND
UPPER 20S NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
LOW PRES CONTINUES TO DEPART ON WEDNESDAY...AND ANY LIGHT SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MORNING. DRY CONDS
EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL ONLY CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL STAY SOUTH OF
THE REGION.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY COULD REACH 40 IN MOST AREAS. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROF REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THIS PERIOD
WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS PLUNGING
SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC AND INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS WEEKEND. IN
FACT...HEIGHT AND TEMP FIELD ANOMALIES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 3-5 SD
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WITH 85H TEMPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT
-25 TO -30 DEG C. THIS WILL EQUATE TO DAYTIME HIGHS ON SAT
STRUGGLING TO GET TO 20 AND NOT OUT OF THE TEENS ON SUN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SUN MORNING WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO WITH WIND
CHILLS MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA...-15 TO -24 DEG F.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AT THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD
WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRI PASSES
THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON AND
IN FACT MANY YEARS FOR SOME LOCATIONS. A STRONG NW FLOW WILL BE
PRESENT ON THU BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND AGAIN SAT AND SUN
BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. IN FACT...WINDS ON THESE DAYS WILL
LIKELY GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THUS...THIS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILLS SAT INTO SUN.
AS FOR ANY PCPN...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING OF A SNOW SQUALL ASSOC WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
THEREAFTER...A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES MON INTO TUE WITH
SIGNIFICANT TIMING ISSUES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS. AIRMASS
MODERATES SIGNIFICANTLY MON INTO TUE WITH HIGH IN 30S MON AND INTO
THE 40S ON TUE. THIS WOULD LIKELY BE A SNOW TO RAIN EVENT...BUT
THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MAINLY VFR VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH
MOST OF THE NIGHT. THERE WILL BE TIMES IN SLIGHTLY HEAVIER SNOW THAT
VISIBILITIES BECOME IFR WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS. LOW FORECAST
CONFIDENCE WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. AS THE SNOW ENDS EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR.
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1 INCH IS POSSIBLE.
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME WESTERLY 5 TO 10 KT
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING AROUND MIDDAY. AT THE NYC
METRO TERMINALS GUSTS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE
GUSTS SUBSIDE AT THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.LATE WED NIGHT...VFR. W GUSTS 20-25KT AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS.
.THU...SLIGHT CHC -SHSN...OTHERWISE VFR. WNW GUSTS 25-30KT.
.FRI...VFR.
.SAT-SUN...VFR. NW GUSTS 20-30KT.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECAST ON THE WATERS REMAINS ON TRACK.
SCA CONDS PERSIST ON THE OCEAN WATERS...MAINLY FOR HIGH SEAS
TONIGHT. THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON WEDNESDAY...AND WIND GUSTS
OF 25-30 KT WILL DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS LATE IN THE MORNING. WILL
HOIST SCA FOR THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. FOR THE OCEAN...GALES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL GO
AHEAD AND ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
GALE CONDITIONS MAY LINGER ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO THU WITH A
STRONG NW GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WITH
SEAS POSSIBLY LINGERING AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NEAR GALE
FORCE WINDS RETURN SAT INTO SUN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE FRI NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THU THROUGH SAT WIT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES MON INTO TUE WITH THE
CHANCE OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENT. THERE IS STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND PTYPE AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A GRADUALLY DOWNWARD TREND IN SURGE AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS FOR NY
HARBOR...COASTAL NE NJ AND WESTERN LI SOUND WITH THIS EVENINGS HIGH
TIDE CYCLE...AND LOCALLY MODERATE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF
LONG ISLAND. SURGE LOWERS FURTHER FOR WEDNESDAY MORNINGS HIGH TIDE
CYCLE...WITH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCALES
OF THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS...NY HARBOR...NE NJ...AND WESTERN LI SOUND.
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHTS HIGH
TIDE...WITH ANY BRIEF LOCALIZED MINOR IMPACTS LIKELY BEING RELEGATED
TO THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LI.
SURF WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER SO BEACH IMPACTS ARE NO LONGER
EXPECTED.
&&
.CLIMATE...
WITH THE EXTREMELY COLD AIRMASS FORECAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...RECORD MINIMUMS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS MAY BE REACHED.
HERE ARE THE RECORDS:
STATION.........RECORD MINIMUM.............RECORD LOW MAXIMUM
FOR 2/14 FOR 2/14
NYC.................2 (1916)....................17 (1979)....
LGA.................1 (1979)....................15 (1979)....
JFK.................4 (1979)....................17 (1979)....
ISP.................7 (2015)....................26 (1987)....
EWR.................0 (1979)....................15 (1979)....
BDR.................3 (2015*)...................18 (1979)....
*IN 1979 AS WELL
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
CTZ009.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ009.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ071-078-081-177.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ071-078-177.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
TODAY FOR NYZ074-075-080-178-179.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
TODAY FOR NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/DW
NEAR TERM...MPS/DS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...BC/MET
MARINE...MPS/DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED WWA SECTION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
430 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT...
LARGE DEEP LAYER LOW CONTINUES TO COVER THE BREADTH OF THE ERN CONUS
WITH COLD HIGH PRES AT THE SFC BUILDING EWD FROM THE CTRL CONUS INTO
THE ERN CONUS/FL. THE STRONG/GUSTY W-NW FLOW OF TUE HAS EASED SOME
OVER LAND SINCE SUNSET...BUT STILL REMAINS BREEZY IN A FEW LOCATIONS
OVER THE CTRL CWA NEAR THE COAST. A LARGE SWATH OF CI/CS OVHD HAS
BEEN SLOWLY SHIFTING S/E...BUT CONTINUES ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE
CWA IN RR QUAD OF DEPARTING ST JETMAX IN EXCESS OF 150KT. THIS IS
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS A BIT ABOVE THE CURRENT FCST FOR THE CENTRAL
AND ESPECIALLY THE SRN CWA. ALSO WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF SOME WHERE
THE CURRENT ADVISORY FOR WIND CHILLS IS IN EFFECT... AND
CONSEQUENTLY WCI`S ARE AOA 40F THERE ATTM. WHILE THERE IS STILL TIME
FOR THESE VALUES TO REACH FCST OF U20S-L30S...WILL TAKE A CLOSE LOOK
AT ZFP ISSUANCE TIME TO SEE IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS NEED TO BE MADE.
TODAY/TONIGHT...
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE SRN LOBE OF THE
COLD HIGH SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE GOMEX AND OVER FL BY LATE TONIGHT.
H30-H20 RH PROGS INDICATE THAT THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHIFT S/E OF THE
SRN CWA LATER THIS MORNING...LEAVING SUNNY SKIES... BUT CONTINUE
COLD TEMPS IN ITS WAKE. MOS GUID CONTINUES TO INDICATE U50S FOR THE
NRN HALF CWA AND AROUND 60F TO THE SOUTH. IT ALSO SHOWS BLYR WINDS
OF AROUND 17-18KT ACROSS THE NRN HALF CWA THIS AFTN WHICH IS RIGHT
AT THE CUSP FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. GIVEN THAT MOS HAS BEEN
PERFORMING PRETTY WELL WITH WINDS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...WILL GO
AHEAD AND ISSUE NPW/LWA FROM OSCEOLA/BREVARD NWD FOR THIS AFTN.
WIDESPREAD MINS IN THE 30S TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH CRESTS OVER THE CWA
AROUND 12Z THU. SETUP CONTINUES TO LOOK PRETTY DECENT FOR FROST AND
A FEW POCKETS OF (NEAR) FREEZING TEMPS FOR THE INTERIOR. BEST CHANCE
REMAINS AROUND THE LAKE GEORGE/OCALA FOREST REGION...AND SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A FREEZING WARNING FOR THAT AREA BASED
ON 12Z MOS TEMP TRENDS. MAY ALSO NEED A FROST ADVISORY FOR A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE CWA FOR LATE TONIGHT.
THU-FRI...
QUIET WX PATTERN TO END THE WORK WEEK AS A WEAK HI PRES RIDGE OVER
THE SRN PLAINS IS PULLED INTO THE GOMEX BY THE DEPARTING JET STREAK
OVER THE SRN GOMEX/CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
IN THE H90-H60 LYR WILL KEEP PWAT VALUES WELL BLO 1.0" WHILE
LIMITING VERTICAL MIXING TO LESS THAN 10KFT.
NWRLY WINDS ON THU WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE L/M60S...ABOUT 10F BLO
AVG. LIGHT WINDS THU NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS EXPANDS OVER THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA...RESULTING IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
HOWEVER...A SLIGHT W/SW COMPONENT WILL ALLOW MINS TO RECOVER INTO
THE L/M40S OVER MOST OF THE CWA...THOUGH POCKETS OF U30S PSBL IN
WIND PROTECTED AREAS N OF I-4 AS WELL AS THE KISSIMMEE PRAIRIE.
W/SWRLY FLOW TO CONT ON FRI AS THE RIDGE AXIS IS SHUNTED INTO S FL
BY A BROAD STORM SYSTEM FCST TO DVLP OUT OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE BY
LATE WEEK...MAX/MIN TEMPS TO RECOVER TO WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF CLIMO
AVGS...L/M70S AND U40S/L50S RESPECTIVELY.
SAT-TUE...
PROGRESSIVE WX PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A 140-160KT JET
STREAK OVER THE CENTRAL/WRN PAC PLOWS ITS WAY INTO THE ERN PAC/WRN
CONUS. TROFFING PATTERN OVER THE ERN CONUS EARLY SAT WILL EJECT NEWD
INTO THE NW ATLC OVER THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND TROF THAT
WILL FORM OVER THE UPR MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION BY DAYBREAK MON AS
THE PAC JET PUSHES ITS THE ASCENDING LEFT EXIT QUAD ACRS THE CENTRAL
CONUS.
BACK DOOR FRONT WITH ATTENDANT NRLY WIND SURGE WILL PUSH INTO
CENTRAL FL ON SUN BUT WILL STALL AND WASH OUT LATE SUN NIGHT AS HI
PRES OVER THE ERN SEABOARD BUILDS OFFSHORE AND WINDS VEER TO THE
E/SE. WEAK CAA SAT/SUN AS WINDS VEER FROM N/NW TO NE...BUT LESS THAN
10F BLO AVG. DEEPENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL ERODE THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION THRU THE H100-H85 LYR AND MAY ALLOW A FEW COASTAL SHRAS TO
DVLP SHOWERS SUN AFTN/SUN NIGHT. SHRA CHCS INCRS AND MAY SPREAD
INLAND MONDAY AS WINDS VEER MORE TO E OR SE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. THE 10/00Z GFS/ECMWF RUNS CONT IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A
FROPA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT ARE LEANING MORE TOWARD THIS OCCURRING
DURING THE DAY TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR. BKN-OVC250 KMLB-KSUA SHIFTS S/E THROUGH 12-14Z. SWATH OF
SHALLOW MARINE SC AIDED BY H50 VORT LOBE WILL PRODUCE FAST MOVING
DECK NEAR BKN050 AROUND ISM-MCO SWD THROUGH ROUGHLY THE SAME TIME
PERIOD...AND MAY EXTEND EWD TO MLB-SUA. OTRW...W-NW WINDS FROM ABOUT
280-290 WILL INCREASE TO 16-18KT/G23-25KT THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...GLW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 09Z/4AM AND DON`T
ANTICIPATE ANY CHGS FORTHCOMING TO THE SCA FOR EITHER THE NEAR SHORE
OR OFFSHORE WATERS. EVEN AT SPEEDS OF 20-25KT...OFFSHORE COMPONENT
TO WINDS (WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING CLOSE TO 290 DEG) WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP HIGHER SEAS WELL AWAY FROM THE COAST. DATA FROM BUOY 41009
SHOWS 7FT SEAS REMAIN CONFINED RIGHT AROUND AND BEYOND 20NM FROM
SHORE. THE SCA OUT TO 20NM WILL TRANSITION TO A CAUTIONARY STMT AT
15Z/10AM...WHILE THE SCA BEYOND 20NM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 09Z/4AM
THU. SEAS 5-7FT NEAR SHORE AND 7-9FT OFFSHORE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
TO 4-5FT NEAR SHORE AND 6-7FT OFFSHORE BY TONIGHT.
THU-THU NIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS THRU THE DAY AS A HI PRES RIDGE
OVER THE GOMEX NUDGES ITS WAY INTO THE FL PENINSULA/NRN BAHAMAS.
MODERATE TO FRESH N/NW BREEZE AT DAYBREAK BCMG GENTLE TO MODERATE BY
MIDDAY...THEN A LIGHT TO GENTLE NRLY BREEZE THRU SUNSET. POSITION
OF THE RIDGE AXIS JUST S OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR WOULD GENERATE VRBL
WINDS BLO 10KTS OVERNIGHT... W/SW FROM THE CAPE NWD...N/NE FROM THE
CAPE SWD. SEAS SUBSIDING FROM 4-6FT NEARSHORE AND 5-7FT OFFSHORE
EARLY IN THE DAY TO 2-4FT NEARSHORE AND 3-5FT OFFSHORE ARND
SUNSET...THEN 2-4FT AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT.
FRI-FRI NIGHT...BROAD STORM SYSTEM DVLPG OVER NEW ENGLAND AND OFF
THE MID ATLC COAST WILL SHUNT THE RIDGE AXIS INTO S FL/FL STRAITS.
RELATIVELY TIGHT PGRAD ON THE N FLANK OF THE RIDGE WILL GENERATE A
GENTLE TO MODERATE W/SW BREEZE FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NWD THRU THE
DAY...BCMG MODERATE TO FRESH WRLY BREEZE AFT SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT. S
OF SEBASTIAN INLET...PGRAD WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK THRU THE DAY...
RESULTING INT A LIGHT WRLY BREEZE. HOWEVER...PGRAD WILL TIGHTEN
OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MIGRATES INTO THE FL STRAITS...ALLOWING
THE MODERATE TO FRESH WRLY BREEZE TO EXPAND INTO THE SRN LEG BY
DAYBREAK. OFFSHORE BREEZE WILL LIMIT NEARSHORE SEAS TO 2-3FT...
OFFSHORE SEAS BUILDING FROM 2-3FT TO 3-4FT THRU THE DAY...THEN TO
4-5FT OVERNIGHT.
SAT-SAT NIGHT...DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THRU THE LCL ATLC
WATERS...ALLOWING WINDS TO FRESHEN OUT OF THE NW THRU THE DAY. HI
PRES RIDGE OVER THE GOMEX WILL MERGE WITH THE POST FRONTAL RIDGE
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...RESULTING IN A MODERATE TO FRESH NWRLY BREEZE
EARLY IN THE DAY THAT WILL STEADILY VEER TO N/NW BY SUNSET...THEN
BCMG A GENTLE TO MODERATE N/NE BREEZE OVERNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO
4-5FT NEARSHORE AND 5-6FT OFFSHORE...UP TO 7FT IN THE GULF STREAM.
SUN-SUN NIGHT...THE CONSOLIDATED RIDGE WILL PUSH OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST...ALLOWING A MODERATE TO FRESH NERLY BREEZE TO DVLP THRU THE
DAY...BCMG E/SE OVERNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7FT NEARSHORE AND
6-8FT OFFSHORE. INCRSG PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE DVLPG ONSHORE
FLOW...SLGT CHC SHRAS THRU THE DAY...BCMG CHC OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE THRU MIDWEEK WITH MIN RH VALUES DROPPING
BLO 35PCT FOR 6-8HRS THRU THU AFTN...BTWN 25-30PCT FOR 4-6HRS FROM
INDIAN RIVER/OSCEOLA CO NWD. MODERATE/GUSTY NW WINDS TODAY WILL
PROMOTE VERY HIGH AFTN DISPERSION VALUES. POOR TO FAIR DISPERSION ON
THU AS A HI PRES RIDGE BUILDS OVER CENTRAL FL...ALLOWING TRANSPORT
WINDS TO DIMINISH WHILE REDUCING MIXING HEIGHTS TO LESS THAN 3KFT.
OVERALL FIRE THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW...HOWEVER...AS ERC VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE L/M TEENS TODAY. DIMINISHING WINDS ON THU
WILL REDUCE OVERALL FIRE THREAT...ERC VALUES NOT ANTICIPATED TO REACH
CRITICAL LVLS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 57 34 59 44 / 0 0 10 10
MCO 59 37 64 44 / 0 0 10 10
MLB 60 36 63 45 / 0 0 10 10
VRB 60 37 64 43 / 0 0 10 10
LEE 58 36 65 46 / 0 0 0 10
SFB 58 35 63 44 / 0 0 10 10
ORL 58 39 64 45 / 0 0 10 10
FPR 60 38 63 43 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLAGLER
BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...BRAGAW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
350 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT...
LARGE DEEP LAYER LOW CONTINUES TO COVER THE BREADTH OF THE ERN CONUS
WITH COLD HIGH PRES AT THE SFC BUILDING EWD FROM THE CTRL CONUS INTO
THE ERN CONUS/FL. THE STRONG/GUSTY W-NW FLOW OF TUE HAS EASED SOME
OVER LAND SINCE SUNSET...BUT STILL REMAINS BREEZY IN A FEW LOCATIONS
OVER THE CTRL CWA NEAR THE COAST. A LARGE SWATH OF CI/CS OVHD HAS
BEEN SLOWLY SHIFTING S/E...BUT CONTINUES ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE
CWA IN RR QUAD OF DEPARTING ST JETMAX IN EXCESS OF 150KT. THIS IS
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS A BIT ABOVE THE CURRENT FCST FOR THE CENTRAL
AND ESPECIALLY THE SRN CWA. ALSO WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF SOME WHERE
THE CURRENT ADVISORY FOR WIND CHILLS IS IN EFFECT... AND
CONSEQUENTLY WCI`S ARE AOA 40F THERE ATTM. WHILE THERE IS STILL TIME
FOR THESE VALUES TO REACH FCST OF U20S-L30S...WILL TAKE A CLOSE LOOK
AT ZFP ISSUANCE TIME TO SEE IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS NEED TO BE MADE.
TODAY/TONIGHT...
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE SRN LOBE OF THE
COLD HIGH SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE GOMEX AND OVER FL BY LATE TONIGHT.
H30-H20 RH PROGS INDICATE THAT THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHIFT S/E OF THE
SRN CWA LATER THIS MORNING...LEAVING SUNNY SKIES... BUT CONTINUE
COLD TEMPS IN ITS WAKE. MOS GUID CONTINUES TO INDICATE U50S FOR THE
NRN HALF CWA AND AROUND 60F TO THE SOUTH. IT ALSO SHOWS BLYR WINDS
OF AROUND 17-18KT ACROSS THE NRN HALF CWA THIS AFTN WHICH IS RIGHT
AT THE CUSP FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. GIVEN THAT MOS HAS BEEN
PERFORMING PRETTY WELL WITH WINDS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...WILL GO
AHEAD AND ISSUE NPW/LWA FROM OSCEOLA/BREVARD NWD FOR THIS AFTN.
WIDESPREAD MINS IN THE 30S TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH CRESTS OVER THE CWA
AROUND 12Z THU. SETUP CONTINUES TO LOOK PRETTY DECENT FOR FROST AND
A FEW POCKETS OF (NEAR) FREEZING TEMPS FOR THE INTERIOR. BEST CHANCE
REMAINS AROUND THE LAKE GEORGE/OCALA FOREST REGION...AND SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A FREEZING WARNING FOR THAT AREA BASED
ON 12Z MOS TEMP TRENDS. MAY ALSO NEED A FROST ADVISORY FOR A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE CWA FOR LATE TONIGHT.
THU-FRI...
QUIET WX PATTERN TO END THE WORK WEEK AS A WEAK HI PRES RIDGE OVER
THE SRN PLAINS IS PULLED INTO THE GOMEX BY THE DEPARTING JET STREAK
OVER THE SRN GOMEX/CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
IN THE H90-H60 LYR WILL KEEP PWAT VALUES WELL BLO 1.0" WHILE
LIMITING VERTICAL MIXING TO LESS THAN 10KFT.
NWRLY WINDS ON THU WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE L/M60S...ABOUT 10F BLO
AVG. LIGHT WINDS THU NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS EXPANDS OVER THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA...RESULTING IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
HOWEVER...A SLIGHT W/SW COMPONENT WILL ALLOW MINS TO RECOVER INTO
THE L/M40S OVER MOST OF THE CWA...THOUGH POCKETS OF U30S PSBL IN
WIND PROTECTED AREAS N OF I-4 AS WELL AS THE KISSIMMEE PRAIRIE.
W/SWRLY FLOW TO CONT ON FRI AS THE RIDGE AXIS IS SHUNTED INTO S FL
BY A BROAD STORM SYSTEM FCST TO DVLP OUT OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE BY
LATE WEEK...MAX/MIN TEMPS TO RECOVER TO WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF CLIMO
AVGS...L/M70S AND U40S/L50S RESPECTIVELY.
SAT-TUE...UPDATE TO FOLLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR. BKN-OVC250 KMLB-KSUA SHIFTS S/E THROUGH 12-14Z. SWATH OF
SHALLOW MARINE SC AIDED BY H50 VORT LOBE WILL PRODUCE FAST MOVING
DECK NEAR BKN050 AROUND ISM-MCO SWD THROUGH ROUGHLY THE SAME TIME
PERIOD...AND MAY EXTEND EWD TO MLB-SUA. OTRW...W-NW WINDS FROM ABOUT
280-290 WILL INCREASE TO 16-18KT/G23-25KT THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...GLW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 09Z/4AM AND DON`T
ANTICIPATE ANY CHGS FORTHCOMING TO THE SCA FOR EITHER THE NEAR SHORE
OR OFFSHORE WATERS. EVEN AT SPEEDS OF 20-25KT...OFFSHORE COMPONENT
TO WINDS (WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING CLOSE TO 290 DEG) WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP HIGHER SEAS WELL AWAY FROM THE COAST. DATA FROM BUOY 41009
SHOWS 7FT SEAS REMAIN CONFINED RIGHT AROUND AND BEYOND 20NM FROM
SHORE. THE SCA OUT TO 20NM WILL TRANSITION TO A CAUTIONARY STMT AT
15Z/10AM...WHILE THE SCA BEYOND 20NM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 09Z/4AM
THU. SEAS 5-7FT NEAR SHORE AND 7-9FT OFFSHORE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
TO 4-5FT NEAR SHORE AND 6-7FT OFFSHORE BY TONIGHT.
THU-THU NIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS THRU THE DAY AS A HI PRES RIDGE
OVER THE GOMEX NUDGES ITS WAY INTO THE FL PENINSULA/NRN BAHAMAS.
MODERATE TO FRESH N/NW BREEZE AT DAYBREAK BCMG GENTLE TO MODERATE BY
MIDDAY...THEN A LIGHT TO GENTLE NRLY BREEZE THRU SUNSET. POSITION
OF THE RIDGE AXIS JUST S OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR WOULD GENERATE VRBL
WINDS BLO 10KTS OVERNIGHT... W/SW FROM THE CAPE NWD...N/NE FROM THE
CAPE SWD. SEAS SUBSIDING FROM 4-6FT NEARSHORE AND 5-7FT OFFSHORE
EARLY IN THE DAY TO 2-4FT NEARSHORE AND 3-5FT OFFSHORE ARND
SUNSET...THEN 2-4FT AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT.
FRI-FRI NIGHT...BROAD STORM SYSTEM DVLPG OVER NEW ENGLAND AND OFF
THE MID ATLC COAST WILL SHUNT THE RIDGE AXIS INTO S FL/FL STRAITS.
RELATIVELY TIGHT PGRAD ON THE N FLANK OF THE RIDGE WILL GENERATE A
GENTLE TO MODERATE W/SW BREEZE FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NWD THRU THE
DAY...BCMG MODERATE TO FRESH WRLY BREEZE AFT SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT. S
OF SEBASTIAN INLET...PGRAD WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK THRU THE DAY...
RESULTING INT A LIGHT WRLY BREEZE. HOWEVER...PGRAD WILL TIGHTEN
OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MIGRATES INTO THE FL STRAITS...ALLOWING
THE MODERATE TO FRESH WRLY BREEZE TO EXPAND INTO THE SRN LEG BY
DAYBREAK. OFFSHORE BREEZE WILL LIMIT NEARSHORE SEAS TO 2-3FT...
OFFSHORE SEAS BUILDING FROM 2-3FT TO 3-4FT THRU THE DAY...THEN TO
4-5FT OVERNIGHT.
SAT-SAT NIGHT...DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THRU THE LCL ATLC
WATERS...ALLOWING WINDS TO FRESHEN OUT OF THE NW THRU THE DAY. HI
PRES RIDGE OVER THE GOMEX WILL MERGE WITH THE POST FRONTAL RIDGE
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...RESULTING IN A MODERATE TO FRESH NWRLY BREEZE
EARLY IN THE DAY THAT WILL STEADILY VEER TO N/NW BY SUNSET...THEN
BCMG A GENTLE TO MODERATE N/NE BREEZE OVERNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO
4-5FT NEARSHORE AND 5-6FT OFFSHORE...UP TO 7FT IN THE GULF STREAM.
SUN-SUN NIGHT...THE CONSOLIDATED RIDGE WILL PUSH OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST...ALLOWING A MODERATE TO FRESH NERLY BREEZE TO DVLP THRU THE
DAY...BCMG E/SE OVERNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7FT NEARSHORE AND
6-8FT OFFSHORE. INCRSG PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE DVLPG ONSHORE
FLOW...SLGT CHC SHRAS THRU THE DAY...BCMG CHC OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE THRU MIDWEEK WITH MIN RH VALUES DROPPING
BLO 35PCT FOR 6-8HRS THRU THU AFTN...BTWN 25-30PCT FOR 4-6HRS FROM
INDIAN RIVER/OSCEOLA CO NWD. MODERATE/GUSTY NW WINDS TODAY WILL
PROMOTE VERY HIGH AFTN DISPERSION VALUES. POOR TO FAIR DISPERSION ON
THU AS A HI PRES RIDGE BUILDS OVER CENTRAL FL...ALLOWING TRANSPORT
WINDS TO DIMINISH WHILE REDUCING MIXING HEIGHTS TO LESS THAN 3KFT.
OVERALL FIRE THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW...HOWEVER...AS ERC VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE L/M TEENS TODAY. DIMINISHING WINDS ON THU
WILL REDUCE OVERALL FIRE THREAT...ERC VALUES NOT ANTICIPATED TO REACH
CRITICAL LVLS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 57 34 59 44 / 0 0 10 10
MCO 59 37 64 44 / 0 0 10 10
MLB 60 36 63 45 / 0 0 10 10
VRB 60 37 64 43 / 0 0 10 10
LEE 58 36 65 46 / 0 0 0 10
SFB 58 35 63 44 / 0 0 10 10
ORL 58 39 64 45 / 0 0 10 10
FPR 60 38 63 43 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLAGLER
BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN
INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET
TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR FLAGLER BEACH
TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...BRAGAW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1250 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH DAYBREAK. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST BANDS. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LESSEN IN INTENSITY BUT STILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.
WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL
DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND GREATEST
IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELT
REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...WITH LAKE RESPONSE STARTING TO BECOME MORE
APPARENT VIA OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY. RAP BUFR
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RISING INVERSION HEIGHTS THROUGH
AROUND 09Z. NATURE OF LAKE EFFECT HAS BEEN CELLULAR MULTIBAND
THIS EVENING AND WOULD SUSPECT INTENSITY TO PICK UP LATE EVENING
AS SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR IN
CLOUD BEARING LAYER MAY CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MORE OF A MULTIBAND
SETUP THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CONCERN THAT A MORE DOMINANT BAND MAY SETUP LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING PER RECENT HRRR TRENDS AS WEAK SYNOPTIC
TROUGH DEPARTS SOUTH OF THE LAKE ALLOWING SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE
WIND FIELD ALONG WITH A PEAK IN LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY.
CURRENTLY HAVE NO PLANS FOR HEADLINE CHANGES AT THIS TIME DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN POTENTIAL MORE DOMINANT PLACEMENT/INTENSITY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALSO HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN FORECASTED SNOW ACCUMS. ACCUMULATION EFFICIENCY HAS
STRUGGLED AWAY FROM THE LAKE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH INCREASING
MORE FAVORABLE THERMO PROFILES FOR SNOW GROWTH SHOULD BEGIN TO
COME INTO PLAY LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND THUS HESITANT TO
LOWER AMOUNTS TOO MUCH AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
LONG DURATION LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTN AS
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL NW FLOW AND CAA OVERSPREADS LAKE MICHIGAN
AND NW PORTION OF OUR CWA. FAVORABLE FACTORS FOR LES TONIGHT INCLUDE
A DEEP MOIST LAYER FROM THE SFC-700MB, LITTLE SFC-850MB LAYER SHEAR,
A SHRTWV MOVG ACROSS THE AREA CAUSING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO RISE TO
AROUND 6KFT AND PROVIDING WK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. SFC TROF
REFLECTION SHOULD ALSO MOVE SE ACROSS SRN LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT
STRENGTHENING BANDS AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENHANCED, BUT ALSO
PSBLY CAUSING DOMINANT BANDS TO BECOME SOMEWHAT TRANSITORY.
MAIN NEGATIVE FACTOR OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT IS WK
LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY OF <500J/KG. HIGH RES MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON A COUPLE OF DOMINANT BANDS IMPACTING THE AREA, ONE
THROUGH CASS COUNTY MI AND SECOND IMPACTING SW BERRIEN, NW ST JOE
INDIANA, AND PSBLY NE LAPORTE. EXPECT GENERAL 2-4" SNOWFALL ACCUMS
IN THE ADVISORY AREA TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS PSBL IN
AREAS WHERE DOMINANT BANDS PERSIST THE LONGEST.
LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED TO CONT WED AS 850MB THERMAL TROF WITH -21C
AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE. DESPITE THIS, LITTLE CHANGE IN LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY FCST AS WARMING OCCURS ABOVE INVERSION BASED AROUND
4.5KFT. WITH SOME DRYING OF THE COLUMN ALSO OCCURRING WED/WED NGT,
EXPECT ACCUMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN
TONIGHT, GENERALLY IN THE 1-3" RANGE EACH PERIOD. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD
FINALLY WIND DOWN THU AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN, INVERSION LOWERS, AND
LOW LEVELS CONT TO DRY OUT WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMS EXPECTED TO BE <1"
IN THIS PERIOD. THUS, CONTD WITH A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THIS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EVENT AS 12-24HR AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE BLO
WARNING CRITERIA, THOUGH STORM TOTALS (INCLUDING LAST NIGHT`S
SNOWFALL) WILL PRBLY BE CLOSE TO A FOOT IN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY
AREA.
FOR THE REST OF THE CWA, BRISK CYCLONIC NW FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS PENETRATING WELL INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
HWVR, TYPICAL OF LAKE EFFECT, ACCUMS WILL BE LESS FARTHER INLAND,
THOUGH SOME COUNTIES BORDERING THE ADVISORY MAY HAVE 3-5" STORM
TOTALS.
TEMPS WILL BE ON A GENERAL SLOW DECLINE OVER THE NEXT 36HRS AS
THERMAL TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOWS TNGT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN
THE TEENS WITH HIGHS WED IN THE UPPER TEENS TO L20S, AND LOWS WED
NGT AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY THU AS WK WAA
DVLPS, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE L20S ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
A VERY DEEP COLD CORE LOW WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY
NEAR FAR SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE GFS AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH THE ECMWF HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM BRINGING ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. DELTA T VALUES MAY EXCEED 25C
SATURDAY AS A FAVORABLE LAKE FETCH DEVELOPS. THE FETCH SHOULD BE
MORE NORTH/SOUTH THAN THIS ONGOING EVENT... WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA. HAVE RAISED SNOW CHANCES SATURDAY
IN THIS REGARD. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...CAUSING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO SHIFT WEST.
KEPT TEMPERATURES VERY COLD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWS NEAR ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OVER
FRESH SNOW COVER. MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE HIGH ZONAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND IMPACTS AT TERMINALS MAIN FOCUS THIS
PACKAGE. KIWX 88D SHOWS STRONG BAND JUST NORTH OF KSBN AT ISSUANCE
TIME AND SINKING SOUTH. SHOULD SEE LIFR AND VLIFR CONDITIONS NEXT
FEW HOURS AS A FEW SFC REPORTS UNDER THIS BAND INDICATED NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. HIRES MODELS INDICATE
THIS BAND TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT OR AT LEAST TRANSLATE AWAY FROM
KSBN SO SLIGHTLY IMPROVED CONDITIONS AFTER 09-10Z. PERSISTENT NW
FLOW AND COLD AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH REST OF PERIOD AT KSBN. KFWA REMAINS ON
EASTERN EDGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND EXPECT VARIED CONDITIONS WITH
MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR NOT OUT OF QUESTION
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH A FEW STRONGER SHOWERS THAT REMAIN
INTACT WELL INLAND.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
INZ003>005.
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...JT/LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LASHLEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1107 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
18Z SFC DATA HAS A SEASONABLY STRONG LOW OVER LAKE HURON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. DEW
POINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S RAN FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS MUCH OF WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS WITH MORE ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN IOWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
BASED ON RADAR AND RAP MODEL TRENDS...THE FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
RATHER RAPID DISSIPATION SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
TONIGHT...PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT
THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF CLEAR SKIES BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE
BACK INTO THE AREA. THE PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW
ZERO.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN REASONABLY BRISK DURING THE EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING LATE. AS A RESULT...WIND CHILLS WILL DROP
WELL BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. THE EXTREME NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA
MAY SEE WIND CHILLS APPROACH 20 BELOW ZERO PRIOR TO SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.
QUIET AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS CLOUDS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING CLIPPER
TYPE SYSTEM. BY MID WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF A
VINTON IOWA...TO MACOMB ILLINOIS LINE WILL SEE LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP OR
MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE DRY ATMOSPHERE OVER THE AREA MAY INITIALLY
LIMIT ANY SNOW TO FLURRIES BUT LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE OCCURRING BY
LATE AFTERNOON.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BY SUNSET WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNDER AN
INCH OF ACCUMULATION.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM REMAINS TO BE A SERIES OF
CLIPPERS THAT ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA ALONG WITH A 1040+
HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND. SNOWFALL TOTALS LOOK TO BE LIGHT WITH
THESE SYSTEMS...HOWEVER...DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
EXPECT FORECASTS TO VARY GREATLY LEADING INTO THE EVENT. WIND
CHILLS ON FRIDAY NIGHT STILL APPEAR TO REACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY
LEVELS.
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...A CLIPPER SHOULD BE WELL PAST THE
CWA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. DETERMINISTIC GRIDDED AND SPECTRAL
MODELS SUGGEST THAT QPF WILL BE OVER FOR MUCH OF THE CWA BY 00Z
THURSDAY. HIRES CAMS KEEP ALL OF THE PRECIP SOUTH OF THE CWA AND
RESULT IN NO SNOW AFTER 00Z THU. AS SUCH...DECIDED TO NOT ADD ANY
QPF OR SNOW ACCUM DURING THIS PERIOD. DECIDED TO ERR ON THE SIDE
OF CAUTION AND INCLUDE A SCHC OF SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD.
THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE A QUIET DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO TRANSVERSE THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING. THE GEM APPEARS TO SEND THIS CLIPPER WELL INTO THE
CWA WITH COVERAGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS IS AT ODDS WITH THE
REST OF THE MODELS. AS SUCH...WILL GO WITH SCHC TO CHC POPS AT THIS
TIME. THIS FORECAST WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS MODELS MOVE BACK AND
FORTH. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE AREA WILL
SEE LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IF THE GEM VERIFIES.
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY A STRONG 1040+ HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL LEAD TO COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND A CHANCE FOR
WIND CHILL HEADLINES POSSIBLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AM. THE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY.
ON SUNDAY A STRONG WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE N CONUS.
GUIDANCE PREDICTS QPF ACROSS THE AREA. WARMER AIR WILL LIKELY BE
ADVECTED NORTH BY THIS WAVE. AT THIS TIME THERE ARE TOO MANY
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS TO SAY ANYTHING MORE THAN THERE WILL
BE A CHC FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
A PASSING WEAK STORM SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PASS
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY SPREADING LIGHT
SNOW INTO SOUTHEAST IA LATE IN THE DAY. THIS MAY AFFECT THE BRL
SITE...WITH A CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW FLURRIES FROM
MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING IN THE LATEST FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE WITH LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...SHEETS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
351 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER WEAK LOW PRESSURE TODAY. THIS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY BUT UP TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDY
WEATHER LINGERS TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET
TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF
BREAK IN STORE FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN
FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
NEW ENGLAND REMAINS ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING
UPPER TROF. THIS FAVORABLY PLACES THE AREA ON THE WAA SIDE...AND
COUPLED WITH ANY S/WV TROF ROTATING THRU THE LARGER FLOW...WX WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED.
ONE SUCH STRONGER S/WV TROF WILL MOVE THRU THE ERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE SLY FLOW INTO THE AREA...AND DEVELOP A
WEAK SFC TROF IN THE REGION. THIS PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR SN SHOWERS
THRU TODAY. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS NH
FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY. REGIONAL RADAR STARTING TO SHOW
ECHOES DEVELOPING TO THE SW...LENDING SOME CREDIBILITY TO THOSE
SOLUTIONS. QPF WILL BE LIGHT...BUT AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
IS POSSIBLE THRU NOON FOR NH. ACTIVITY SHIFTS EWD IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SN SHOWERS SHIFTS TO COASTAL
WRN ME. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WRN ZONES AGAIN LATER
TODAY...AS LATEST HRRR RUNS DEVELOP BANDS OF SN SHOWERS THAT MOVE
OFF THE GREAT LAKES AS CAA PICKS UP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FEEL THAT WE TAKE A BRIEF BREAK TONIGHT WITH THE PRECIP.
HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT
ALOFT...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SN SHOWER. POP GENERALLY STAYS
AROUND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE AREA. ALSO EXPECT TO SEE SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO TONIGHT. WITH GENERAL CLOUD COVER...BUT SOME BREAKS
DEVELOPING. THOSE AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO QUICKLY COOL OFF...BUT
TOUGH TO IDENTIFY OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE.
UPPER TROF AXIS IS SET TO CROSS THE AREA THU. EXPECT MORE SN
SHOWERS TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. LATE IN THE DAY STRONG CAA
LOOKS LIKELY. IN ADDITION TO FALLING TEMPS...WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
NIGHT BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET AFTER
MIDNIGHT BOTTOMING OUT AT 5 BELOW TO NEAR ZERO NORTH AND RANGING
THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS SOUTH.
NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST
ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL AVERAGE OUTWELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH READINGS ONLY REACHING 5 TO 15 NORTH AND MID TEENS TO
MID 20S SOUTH.
WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT
DRIVING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS OVERNIGHT WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP TO 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE NORTH AND 5 TO 10
DEGREES SOUTH.
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KICK IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON.
DEEP UPPER LOW SETTLING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN UPSLOPE
AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH.
UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT BUT INTENSE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SHOULD SEE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DESPITE THE WINDS EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO DIP TO 10 TO 15 BELOW NORTH
AND 5 TO 10 BELOW SOUTH. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE STRONG
WINDS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY EXCEED WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS A GOOD PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. LOOKING FOR A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IN
THE SOUTH WITH MOUNTAIN CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND LOWER TO MID TEENS SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD SEE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS OF 5 TO 10 BELOW NORTH AND 5 BELOW
TO 5 ABOVE SOUTH.
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK
ON MONDAY AS A BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING PUSHES IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS
WILL LOWER AND THICKEN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS PUSH IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS BY
LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY EVENING...BUT NOT LOOKING LIKE A
BIG DEAL AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM MAY BE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE
HITS THE EAST COAST AND SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW BUT MODELS SHOWING
SOME BIG DIFFS IN TRACK AND TIMING WITH THIS FEATURE.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN CONTROL OF A BROAD UPPER
TROF. THIS IS KEEPING THE WX A LITTLE UNSETTLED...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THRU THU. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE SLOWLY MOVING
INTO AND THRU THE AREA...AND WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS NH THE
FIRST PART OF TODAY. WRN ME WILL SEE MVFR CIGS ADVANCE INTO THOSE
ZONES BY THE AFTERNOON. WITHIN THE SFC TROF...SNWFL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH AREAS OF IFR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACTLY WHERE
AND HOW LONG IFR CONDITIONS LAST...BUT AGAIN MOST LIKELY AREAS ARE
ACROSS NH TERMINALS. TROF AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THU...WITH SHSN
LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN.
LONG TERM...AREAS MVFR CEILINGS THURSDAY EVENING...BECOMING VFR.
VFR FRIDAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
VFR ON SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH SEAS ARE GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO LONG PERIOD
SWELL. WITH SOME WAVE HEIGHTS STILL OVER 7 FT...WILL CONTINUE THE
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THRU MORNING. AS COLD FNT CROSSES THE
WATERS LATE THU...A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS IS
POSSIBLE. RIGHT NOW MOST LIKELY AREAS ARE S OF CAPE
ELIZABETH...AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.
LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS
MORNING FOR ANZ150-152-154.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR ANZ154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...SINSABAUGH
AVIATION...LEGRO/SINSABAUGH
MARINE...LEGRO/SINSABAUGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1200 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1026 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW TROF DEEPENING INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. WITH TROF CONTINUING TO DEEPEN...
MODELS SHOW 12HR 500MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 20-80M ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR/UPPER MI DURING THE NIGHT...GREATEST OVER THE E HALF OF THE
AREA. UPSTREAM...12Z CWPL SOUNDING SHOWED A SHARP INVERSION AT ABOUT
875MB WHERE TEMP WAS -28C. 00Z CWPL SOUNDING SHOWED THAT THE
INVERSION HAD WEAKENED WITH A DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER NOW PRESENT FROM
AROUND 900MB TO AROUND 760MB. MOISTURE DEPTH HAS ALSO INCREASED TO
AROUND 760MB/6300FT. THERE HAS BEEN RATHER PERSISTENT 28+DBZ RETURNS
IN THE ONGOING SNOW BANDS EAST OF MARQUETTE...INDICATING 1+IN/HR
SNOW RATES. SINCE DEEPENING TROF AND UPSTREAM 00Z CWPL SOUNDING
SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN LES INTENSITY OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING...
LES WARNING HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTIES. SEEMS
REASONABLE THAT SOME AREAS WILL REACH/EXCEED 8IN/12HR OR 12IN/24HR
WARNING CRITERIA FOR HIGH SLR SNOWFALL.
18Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND HOURLY HRRR/RAP RUNS INDICATE SLIGHT VEERING
OF WINDS DURING THE NIGHT/WED MORNING WHICH WOULD SHIFT MDT/HVY SNOW
WESTWARD INTO MORE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE COUNTY. WIND
FIELDS ACTUALLY LOOK QUITE FAVORABLE FOR DECENT SNOW AS N WIND OVER
THE LAKE ENCOUNTERS BACKED WIND OVER THE LAND. HAVE PAINTED 24HR
SNOW AMOUNTS ENDING 00Z THU OF 8 TO LOCALLY 12IN IN THAT AREA...BUT
GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF HVY SNOW SO FAR THIS EVENING IN EASTERN
MARQUETTE COUNTY...THE AREA AROUND SKANDIA/CARLSHEND WILL PROBABLY
END UP WITH THE MOST SNOW...14IN OR MORE DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE
BAND LINGERS BEFORE SHIFTING W. IN ALGER COUNTY...RAN WARNING THRU
PREVIOUS ADVY TIMEFRAME....THOUGH SNOWFALL AFTER WED MORNING
PROBABLY WON`T REQUIRE ANYTHING MORE THAN ADVY. EXPECT GREATEST SNOW
TOTALS IN ALGER COUNTY TO BE IN THE WRN PORTION OF THE COUNTY.
FINALLY...WITH BLSN...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...
THERE WILL NO DOUBT BE BRIEF WHITE-OUTS IN THE BANDS OF HVY SNOW.
OUT W...ENHANCING FACTORS INFLUENCING THE SNOW INTENSITY INTO NCNTRL
UPPER MI WILL BE WEAKER OVER WRN UPPER MI...SO NO MEANINGFUL CHANGES
WERE MADE TO FCST THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND
A CLOSED 500 MB LOW IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH A TROUGH IN THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. NAM
SHOWS DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING
OUT OF THE ERN CWA TONIGHT.
WINDS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH AND NEITHER DOES THE COLD AIR AMOUNT
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...SO PERSISTENCE IS THE WAY TO GO WITH
THIS FORECAST. LOOKED AT 950 MB CONVERGENCE WINDS AND THEY STAY
STRONG UNTIL WED AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ACROSS MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES AND FOR THIS
REASON...EXTENDED THE ADVISORY FOR ALGER AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES
UNTIL 00Z WED AND WILL GO WITH AN ADVISORY FOR ONTONAGON AND GOGEBIC
COUNTIES AND KEEP NORTHERN HOUGHTON AND KEWEENAW COUNTIES IN AN
ADVISORY THROUGH THEN. LOOKING AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...INVERSION
HEIGHTS REMAIN BELOW 500 FEET THROUGH THIS WHOLE FORECAST PERIOD AS
WELL. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE MANY BIG CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST
EXCEPT DID BUMP UP SNOW AND QPF AMOUNTS A BIT IN NORTHERLY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BELTS AND HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS IN THOSE AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
NNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING OUT OF THE
NW THURSDAY MORNING AND REMAINING OUT OF A MAINLY NW DIRECTION
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. 850MB TEMPS STARTING OUT AROUND -22C...AND
ONLY BRIEFLY MODERATE SLIGHTLY TO AROUND -10C THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MUCH COOLER AIR SLIDES BACK IN FOR FRIDAY. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL
CONSIST OF A TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AS COLD/STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SINKS ACROSS MANITOBA AND THE E
DAKOTAS/MN.
SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING DIGGING SSE ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL VEER LOW-LEVEL WINDS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN MARQUETTE AND AU TRAIN. WITH GUSTY NNW WINDS AND
THERMO PROFILES STILL SUPPORTIVE OF MODEST LES...HAVE OPTED TO
EXTENDED THE LES ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST ALGER COUNTY THROUGH WED
NIGHT.
ENHANCING THE CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE A TROUGH
SET UP ACROSS THE NW ONTARIO BORDER WITH MANITOBA AT 18Z THURSDAY.
EXPECT THE TROUGH TO SINK ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE THE SFC TROUGH ITSELF PUSHES OVER FAR SE PORTIONS OF
ONTARIO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A LINGERING THERMALLY-INDUCED TROUGH OVER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL AGAIN ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
FOCUS LES INTO ALGER COUNTY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. WITH A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO THE IMPINGING HIGH PRES...WINDS LOOKS TO BE
QUITE GUSTY THUR NIGHT INTO SAT. WHILE SPECIFICS ARE A BIT MUDDLED
AT THIS TIME...LES ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY BE PRESENT AGAIN WITH THE
COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND FOCUSED LES BANDS.
A RATHER COLD 850MB CORE OF -30C WILL BRUSH THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE TRENDED TEMPS DOWNWARD A FEW DEGREES
DURING THIS PERIOD. WITH COLD TEMPS AND GUSTY WINDS...WIND CHILLS
WILL NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT.
LES QUICKLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST AS A SFC RIDGE CROSSES THE CWA SAT
NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE SETTING UP FOR QUITE A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE ONE CAVEAT FOR VERY COLD CONDITION
WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HAVE TRENDED TEMPS
DOWNWARD...WITH TEENS BELOW ZERO INTERIOR WEST. AFTER DRY CONDITIONS
ON SUNDAY...TROUGHING WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
UNDER A NNW FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THE RULE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST
PERIOD...AND TYPICAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...CONDITIONS WILL BE
HIGHLY VARIABLE. PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE IFR...BUT
EXPECT PERIODS OF LIFR AND MVFR. LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR AT KSAW LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING AS SLIGHTLY
VEERING WINDS SHIFT HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WESTWARD TO KSAW. SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR AND A FALLING INVERSION SHOULD LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THIS AFTN WITH A TREND TO PREVAILING MVFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING OVER NORTH CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR. NEXT GALES LOOK TO BE THU NIGHT AND FRI ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR AS NEXT SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVE IN AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP AGAIN. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH THE
HEAVIEST FREEZING SPRAY INTO WED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY
FOR MIZ001>003-009.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ006.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LSZ265>267.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY
FOR LSZ162-263-264.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROLFSON
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF/KLUBER
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1140 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
.UPDATE:
Issued at 839 PM CST Tue Feb 9 2016
Radar is showing a few light snow showers currently moving
through the metro area likely just ahead of a weak vort max seen
on water vapor imagery. Have added isolated flurries to the
southern and eastern parts of the CWA for the mid and late evening
hours. Otherwise there will be some clearing tonight before
additional cloudiness moves back into the area by daybreak.
Otherwise going lows look on track based on temperature trends.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 345 PM CST Tue Feb 9 2016
Scattered flurries will continue for the rest of the afternoon under
the strato-cu deck. There is a clearing slot running down the west
side of the Mississippi River down almost to the Missouri River. The
clouds should continue to break up...although RAP and NAM soundings
show plenty of low level moisture trapped under an inversion into
the evening. Think most of the area should be clear of the low
clouds by 06Z...though south central Illinois counties will likely
stay under the clouds into Wednesday morning. Cold advection on
northwest flow will continue tonight into early Wednesday. Think
guidance temperatures in the single digits to mid teens look good
for lows tonight.
Focus turns to storm system developing on Wednesday. This look to
be a purely warm advection/frontogenesis snow. GFS, ECMWF and NAM
are showing some pretty high values of warm advection...between 30
to 50 degrees C/12hr. Forecast soundings show the moist layer
extending up into the dendritic growth zone with a decent amount of
lift through that layer as well. Looks like the snow will hold off
until mid-late afternoon. Due to the cold atmosphere and lift in
the best snow-growth zone, expect this will be a fluffy snow which
will accumulate pretty quickly...especially since highs will stay
well below freezing.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 345 PM CST Tue Feb 9 2016
Model guidance continues to improve its consensus for the track and
impact on the storm system expected to be ongoing early Wednesday
evening. The consensus track for max QPF stretches from north-
central MO thru the southwestern half of the STL metro area and
towards Cape Girardeau, MO. The WAA associated with this event is
expected to be intense and will probably result in rapid onset and
development which, again, should be ongoing by sundown Wednesday
evening. WAA remains intense thru much of Wednesday evening with
lift continuing well into the overnight hours, and for this reason,
will keep a mention of pcpn thru the nighttime hours with this
package. A fairly broad stripe of up to 1" of new snow accum is now
looking possible with this system, with near 2" potential in its
core/peak QPF track. If the WAA continues to be advertised as
intense with this system, these snow amounts, especially in the core
track, will probably need to be bumped up further due to high
anticipated snow to liquid ratios, when light winds are taken into
account from the surface RIDGE being over our region and a cold low-
mid level column.
Another system, of a more classic clipper variety, may impact our
region on late Thursday night into Friday, but the track for this
continues to be more to the northeast thru southern IA into central
IL, with only a modest mention of flurries or low PoPs justified at
this time.
Otherwise, a prolonged period of below average temps is forecast
from now thru the upcoming weekend, with very little moderation
expected in temps on Friday before the next shot of Arctic air
descends on our region for the weekend. Only by early next week
does the persistent RIDGE over the western CONUS begin to translate
eastward and could mean a return to average to even above average
temps at some point next week.
It is near this transition period Sunday-Monday that another system
is expected to impact our region. The GFS has finally come onboard
with the more consistent EC and GEM solutions but the nature of this
system is far from settled, with its initial onset possibly as early
as Saturday night and it may be completely done by Monday now. This
earlier timing would certainly favor an all snow event, with more
average temps for mid-February set to return on the heels of this
event. With the main storm still well over the north Pacific, there
is much that can go wrong or change and something to stay tuned for.
But as it stands now, could see widespread advisory criteria
snowfall.
TES
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CST Tue Feb 9 2016
High MVFR ceilings are KUIN are expected to move out of the
terminal shortly. Some brief VFR snow showers are possible early
in the TAF period at the St. Louis area terminals.
Otherwise...expect mainly dry and VFR conditions until midday
Wednesday when snow will move into the terminals from the north.
Then visibilities will lower to MVFR and IFR during the afternoon
and evening hours as the snow begins to accumulate up to an inch.
Specifics for KSTL: Flurries are possible the first hour or two of
the TAF period. Otherwise expect dry and VFR conditions until snow
moves back into the terminal during the later afternoon hours on
Wednesday. Visibilities will lower to MVFR and IFR during the
afternoon and evening hours before the snow ends.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
313 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE A BLAST OF VERY COLD
AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...ADJUSTED SKY COVER FCST FOR MORE
CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMP/DEW PT GRIDS.
AC DECK HAS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF SRN 2/3 OF AREA AND PROGGED TO
MOVE OFF COAST NEXT 2-3 HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS
AREA REST OF NIGHT AFTER THIS CLOUDINESS PUSHES OFFSHORE. DEW PTS
ARE DROPPING INTO TEENS INLAND BUT WESTERLY WINDS 5-15 MPH WILL
KEEP ATMOS MIXED OVERNIGHT...AND HOLD MIN TEMPS IN UPR 20S INLAND
AND LOW-MID 30S COAST.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 900 PM TUESDAY...YET ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE DEEPLY CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING. THE
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HANGS ON TO THESE SHOWERS UNTIL AROUND
03Z THEN INDICATES DRYING WITH SKIES CLEARING AFTER 06Z. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT OVERNIGHT TO SUSTAIN WESTERLY WINDS 5
TO 10 MPH INLAND AND 15 TO 25 MPH COAST. THESE WINDS COUPLED WITH
TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S INLAND
AND LOW 30S OUTER BANKS WILL ADD AN ADDITIONAL CHILL TO THE AIR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE BETWEEN 750 AND 850 MB WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
YIELD PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ANOMALOUSLY LOW THICKNESSES SHOULD LEAD
TO A CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S WITH WEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN
COLDER.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVING INTO EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WX WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW
FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE NW THU INTO FRI AS
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO ROTATE ALONG THE BASE OF THE EAST
COAST UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND SUNNY SKIES
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S THU...WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE 20S THU NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FRIDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE SE STATES STRENGTHENS MOVING ALONG THE NC COAST. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS
MADE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. 00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE NOW TRENDING MUCH WETTER FOR FRI. THERMAL
PROFILES...CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES AND SREF PLUMES SUPPORT
PREDOMINANT PTYPE AS -SN WITH MAYBE A MIX OF -SN/-RA ALONG THE
COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A LITTLE WARM NOSE...SO SOME
SLEET COULD ALSO BE MIXED IN WITH THE PRECIP. INCREASED POPS TO
HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA FRI...AND ADDED LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
AREA...LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING A MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS TO
THE REGION. VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET TO -15 TO
-20C BY SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE
1225-1240M RANGE...RESULTING IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND. SOME RECORD LOW MAX VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS 35-40 DEGREES SAT...AND THEN UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S
FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. THE OUTER BANKS COULD SEE
SOME FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON AND OFF SAT INTO SUN.
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
REGARDING THE TIMING...STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THEN SFC
LOW. WILL CONTINUE SC/LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...WITH BEST
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS -RA/-SN
MIX MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN. TEMPS LOOK
TO REBOUND AND RETURN TO NEAR CLIMO...HIGHS MON 40-50 DEGREES AND
TUE IN THE LOW/MID 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TAF PERIOD. AC DECK WILL MOVE OFF COAST NEXT FEW HOURS
LEAVING MOSTLY CLR SKIES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING...AND WEST
WINDS 5-10 MPH AND DRYING AIR MASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL SHRT WV ENERGY WILL RESULT IN SCT-BKN SCU
AND AC DEVELOPMENT LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTN WITH ANY CIGS ABV 3K
FT. CLOUDS DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. WEST
WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT AGAIN LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTN.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AND THU NIGHT.
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 25KT THU AFTERNOON. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE LIKELY FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE NC
COAST...BRINGING THE THREAT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE
TERMINALS. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...MAYBE MIXED WITH LIGHT RAIN
AND SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 900 PM TUESDAY...VERY ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE WITH 7 TO 10 FOOT
SEAS IN A COMBINATION OF 14-15 SECOND SWELL AND A SHORTER WIND
WAVE. THE LATEST 3KM HRRR AND RAP MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. NO
CHANGES TO THE ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. WITH THE OFFSHORE
FLOW...SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...UNSETTLED BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW THU AND FRI.
GUSTY WNW WINDS 15-25KT AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL START OFF THU...BUT
SHOULD BE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THE DAY. COULD SEE SEAS DROP
BELOW 6FT BY THU EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE NC COAST FRIDAY...WHILE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW, INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR
FRI. THOUGH WILL KEEP AOB 15KT WITH SEAS 2-4FT. EXPECT STRONGER
WINDS LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-9FT.
WINDS WILL PEAK SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY...LATEST PREDICTED WATER LEVEL DEPARTURES
DURING THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AND AGAIN AROUND MID-MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY ARE AROUND 3 FEET...DOWN A BIT FROM THIS MORNING`S TIDE
WHICH PRODUCED SOME MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. EARLIER
ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER BANKS TO RUN THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL OCEAN
OVERWASH AND BEACH EROSION THAT MAY OCCUR AROUND THE NEXT TWO HIGH
TIDES.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC/CQD
NEAR TERM...JME/CTC/JBM
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JME/CTC/JBM/CQD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1259 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE A BLAST OF VERY COLD AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...ADKUSTED SKY COVER FCST FOR MORE
CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMP/DEW PT GRIDS.
AC DECK HAS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF SRN 2/3 OF AREA AND PROGGED TO
MOVE OFF COAST NEXT 2-3 HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS
AREA REST OF NIGHT AFTER THIS CLOUDINESS PUSHES OFFSHORE. DEW PTS
ARE DROPPING INTO TEENS INLAND BUT WESTERLY WINDS 5-15 MPH WILL
KEEP ATMOS MIXED OVERNIGHT...AND HOLD MIN TEMPS IN UPR 20S INLAND
AND LOW-MID 30S COAST.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 900 PM TUESDAY...YET ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE DEEPLY CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING. THE
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HANGS ON TO THESE SHOWERS UNTIL AROUND
03Z THEN INDICATES DRYING WITH SKIES CLEARING AFTER 06Z. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT OVERNIGHT TO SUSTAIN WESTERLY WINDS 5
TO 10 MPH INLAND AND 15 TO 25 MPH COAST. THESE WINDS COUPLED WITH
TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S INLAND
AND LOW 30S OUTER BANKS WILL ADD AN ADDITIONAL CHILL TO THE AIR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE BETWEEN 750 AND 850 MB WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
YIELD PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ANOMALOUSLY LOW THICKNESSES SHOULD LEAD
TO A CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S WITH WEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN
COLDER.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ARCTIC
AIRMASS MOVING INTO EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY... HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO
RISE...BUT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN DOMINANT ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF. 850MB TEMPERATURE STILL REMAINS BELOW
AVERAGE...THEREFORE LEADING TO ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. THURSDAY NIGHT, EXPECT LOWS IN
THE LOW 20S.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN FROM
CANADA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO RE-AMPLIFYING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF U.S. AND BRINGING EVEN
COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
BOTH THE 09/12Z GFS AND 09/12Z ECMWF IS HAVING A BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER FOR FRIDAY INTO LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH MODELS SHOW A STRONG FORCING AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
WHILE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND SFC LOW DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST. THE SHORTWAVE COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SEE SOME -RA/-SN
SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS OF -RA/-SN MIX...THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOW 40S.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN COLDER/DRIER
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION.VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET BY
SUNDAY BTW -20C TO -15C WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE
1225-1240M RANGE. THIS WILL BRING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH HIGH STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY
HIGHS...UPPER 30S/LOW 40S AND SUNDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR BOTH SATURDAY SUNDAY
NIGHT.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES IN FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DEVELOPING A SFC LOW DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION 20% POP FOR RAIN...MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY... AS THE SFC LOW WILL BE CLOSE TO THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND MONDAY AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE 40S MONDAY AND LOW 50S TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TAF PERIOD. AC DECK WILL MOVE OFF COAST NEXT FEW HOURS
LEAVING MOSTLY CLR SKIES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING...AND WEST
WINDS 5-10 MPH AND DRYING AIR MASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL SHRT WV ENERGY WILL RESULT IN SCT-BKN SCU
AND AC DEVELOPMENT LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTN WITH ANY CIGS ABV 3K
FT. CLOUDS DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. WEST
WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT AGAIN LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW 5 TO 15 KNOTS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WITH ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD BEHIND IT. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FOR THURSDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 900 PM TUESDAY...VERY ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE WITH 7 TO 10 FOOT
SEAS IN A COMBINATION OF 14-15 SECOND SWELL AND A SHORTER WIND
WAVE. THE LATEST 3KM HRRR AND RAP MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. NO
CHANGES TO THE ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. WITH THE OFFSHORE
FLOW...SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUES...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND
ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALL THE COASTAL
WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. THERE WILL BE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS WINDS
AND SEAS SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS...WITH NW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS
AND 2 TO 4 FT. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS ANOTHER
STRONG COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS...EXPECT NW
WINDS 20-30 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY...LATEST PREDICTED WATER LEVEL DEPARTURES
DURING THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AND AGAIN AROUND MID-MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY ARE AROUND 3 FEET...DOWN A BIT FROM THIS MORNING`S TIDE
WHICH PRODUCED SOME MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. EARLIER
ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER BANKS TO RUN THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL OCEAN
OVERWASH AND BEACH EROSION THAT MAY OCCUR AROUND THE NEXT TWO HIGH
TIDES.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...JME/CTC/JBM
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...JBM/BM
MARINE...JME/CTC/JBM/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
311 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016
SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH THE RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING A 150
KT JET STREAK DIGGING INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. SNOW HAS BEEN
FALLING SINCE BEFORE 06Z IN OUR WESTERN CWA...WITH AUTOMATED SITES
SHOWING AROUND 0.06 TO 0.08 INCHES OF LIQUID SO FAR. THE SNOW BAND
LINES UP WELL WITH THE UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE JET AS WELL AS
700MB FRONTOGENESIS SEEN ON SPC MESO PAGE. VIS HAS BEEN MOSTLY IN
THE 2 TO 5SM RANGE ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES HAVE BEEN DOWN TO 1SM AT
TIMES. THE MODELS HAVE FRONTOGENESIS CONTINUING UNTIL AROUND 18Z
TODAY...SO THINK WE SHOULD HAVE PRETTY DECENT BAND OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES. SOME OF THE RECENT RUNS HAVE BEEN
BACKING OFF ON QPF...BUT WILL KEEP THE 3 INCHES ACROSS THE WEST
FOR NOW AND SEE HOW THINGS ARE AT 12Z. DID CUT THE AMOUNTS IN RED
RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL BE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP
BAND.
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHEST READINGS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND
COLDER TEMPS EVEN WITH MORE SUN IN THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL START
OUT WELL BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT
ON TEMPS TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL START MOVING INTO WESTERN ND...SO OUR WEST SHOULD BE
CLOUDY EVEN AS THE PRECIP STAYS OUT OF THE CWA. THE NORTHEAST WILL
AGAIN HAVE VERY LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...SO GETTING
DOWN INTO THE 10 TO 15 BELOW RANGE WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. THE
CLOUDY WEST AND MORE SUNNY EAST SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS AGAIN SHOWING A DECENT GRADIENT OF SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW 20S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES BY LATE
FRIDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG DOWN THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING A BIT FURTHER WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL KEEP SOME LOW
POPS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BUT THINK IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL. OF GREATER NOTE IS A SURGE OF COLDER AIR COMING DOWN
DURING THE PERIOD. THE MORE THAN 1040MB HIGH DIGGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP HIGHS ON FRIDAY BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES
COLDER THAN THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...MUCH OF THE CWA
WILL DROP INTO THE 10 TO 20 BELOW RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS...AND SOME SPOTS IN THE EAST COULD BE EVEN COLDER.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THIS RUN. NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW WAVES
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS WITH RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION. A WAVE PROGRESSES EAST ON SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN BEHIND
THE SYSTEM...ANOTHER WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...WITH MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
WINDS CONTINUE TO LOOK WEAK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LATEST MODELS
KEEP ANY LIGHT SNOW OUT OF KFAR/KGFK...SO HAVE REMOVED THAT FROM
THE LATEST TAFS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW REMAIN AT KDVL...WHICH
COULD DROP THE VSBY THERE BELOW A MILE AT TIMES. WITH LITTLE OR NO
SNOW AT KGFK/KFAR...ALSO INCREASED THE CEILINGS. WORST CEILINGS
WILL ALSO BE WITH THE SNOW AT KDVL.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...GODON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
356 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
AREA. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS EXPECTED THE SNOW ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY SINCE
03Z. STILL SEEING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BUT ACCUMS SINCE
MIDNIGHT APPEAR TO BE UNDER AN INCH WITH STORM TOTALS MAINLY 1 TO
3 INCHES WITH PERHAPS A FEW 4 INCH AMOUNTS SO FAR. THE FIRST HALF
OF TODAY SHOULD SEE LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE CURRENT SITUATION WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF KCLE. DO EXPECT MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST AND SHOULD HELP PUSH THE SNOW INTO INTERIOR AREAS. THE
LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE SNOW BLOSSOMING AFTER 18Z OVER THE EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. WILL GIVE MUCH OF THE AREA LIKELY OR
HIGHER POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ACCUMS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAY WITH AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE MOST OF THE AREA WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE SNOWBELT WHERE THE HEADLINES CONTINUE. THE
DAY CREW WILL HAVE TO WATCH EASTERN CUYAHOGA COUNTY TO MAKE SURE
THEY DON`T APPROACH ADVISORY TYPE SNOW AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PLACES LIKE TRUMBULL AND MAHONING COUNTIES COULD SEE A
COUPLE OF INCHES BY 00Z AND ANOTHER INCH OR TWO TONIGHT. THIS IS
WAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 4 INCHES IN 12 HOURS SO SEE NO NEED
FOR A HEADLINE THERE EITHER. HAVE LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS FROM THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GET GOING EARLY THIS EVENING AS SATURATED
AIR FINALLY REACHES THE PREFERRED SNOW GROWTH ZONE. THE GOOD
MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED SO EXPECTED THE WORST OF THE
EVENT TO BE TONIGHT. LAKE HURON EVENTUALLY GETS INTO THE ACT LATER
TONIGHT BUT BY THAT TIME THE GOOD SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL BE
PULLING AWAY. HAVE FINED TUNED THE SNOW TOTALS IN THE WARNING
STATEMENT THAT JUST WENT OUT. AGAIN...THE DAY CREW WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THE PERIPHERAL AREAS TO MAKE SURE ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES ARE
NOT NEEDED. RIDGING WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AND BY LATE IN THE DAY
THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE UP THE LAKE FROM THE LOCAL AREA.
WESTERN AREAS COULD SEE SOME BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT BUT THE
MAIN ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE SNOWBELT. SOME CLEARING IN THE WEST
IN POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A TRUE ARCTIC AIRMASS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
850 TEMPS POSSIBLE GETTING TO NEG 25 OR COLDER. THIS WILL BE THE
COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE YEAR. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE
ANOTHER LAKE HURON FETCH OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH AN AIRMASS THIS
COLD THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY DRY. LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR ADDITIONAL HEADLINES. HAVE
CONTINUE WITH THE FRIGID TEMPS IN THE FORECAST. MUCH OF THE AREA
SHOULD GET BELOW ZERO ON SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
WINTER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO FEATURE A BIG RIDGE OUT WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HEIGHTS RISE A BIT IN THE EAST BUT THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL START TO RECOVER AND TEMPS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO GO UP
SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON MONDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO TAKE
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIP. IT DEVELOPS AN EAST COAST LOW BY TUESDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
TAKING A SOUTHERN LOW AND BOUNCING IT BETWEEN THE OHIO VALLEY AND
THE EAST COAST BUT ULTIMATELY DEVELOPING AN EAST COAST LOW. THE CMC
ALSO HAS A SOUTHERN LOW BUT IT STAYS PRETTY FAR SOUTH. IN ANY
CASE...THERE WOULD SEEM TO BE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME WARM
ADVECTION SNOW...JUST NO CONFIDENCE ON THE AMOUNTS/DURATION YET.
CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY AND SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE. ANOTHER WAVE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY MIDWEEK AND TRACK TOWARD THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
RECOVERED TO NEAR NORMAL BY THAT TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AS LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SLOWLY EXITS TO THE EAST. WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NE OHIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO PENNSYLVANIA
THROUGH 9-10Z. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT AT ERI BEFORE DECREASING WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE
EXPECT TO SEE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS STARTING TO PICK BACK UP
AFTER 14Z WITH AN UPTICK IN INTENSITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OHIO DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA
WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS. WESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES AT
TOL/FDY/ERI.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK IN SNOW AND LOWER
CEILINGS AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONT WITH SNOW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. VFR MOST LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A
RIDGE BUILDS IN BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES.
&&
.MARINE...
BRISK WINDS WILL BE COMMON ON LAKE ERIE FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW GALE FORCE.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND BECOME
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. SOME FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY BUT ACCRETION RATES SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE.
WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
ARCTIC FRONT. THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE LAKE BY FRIDAY
EVENING AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS LAKE ERIE BY SUNDAY AND WINDS
WILL LIGHTEN. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE HIGH
MOVES EAST OF THE LAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ012-
089.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ013-
014.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ001.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ002-
003.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KOSARIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
1048 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO RAISE POPS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A FRONT WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES NEAR THE COAST. NEAR
TERM GUIDANCE LIKE THE HRRR AND THE RAP BOTH SHOW SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION NEAR THE COAST IN THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME (4-10AM), AS
DOES THE NEW 00Z NAM. THE FRONT IS SHALLOW WITH MOST OF THE DEEP
MOISTURE BELOW 700 MB. BUT, IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT
SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS HERE AND THERE.
PRECIPITATION WON`T MAKE IT TOO FAR INLAND THOUGH...PROBABLY NO
MORE THAN 20 MILES (TO THE COAST RANGES). FOR THIS REASON, POPS
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT EXIST FROM ROSEBURG SOUTHWARD TO THE ILLINOIS
VALLEY AND EASTWARD. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE THIS EVENING.
SPILDE
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 10/06Z TAF CYCLE...LIFR CIGS LIKELY RETURN TO
THE UMPQUA VALLEY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE AT THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT MAY BRIEFLY CAUSE
MVFR CIGS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA WILL HAVE VFR. SPILDE
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 730 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016....SOUTH WINDS WILL
VEER TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE IN VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. ANOTHER WEAK WARM FRONT WILL COME
IN FROM THE SOUTH INTO THE MARINE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE BERING SEA WILL STEER A SERIES
OF FRONTS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL...OR HIGHER... CONDITIONS AFTER
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MULTIPLE MODERATE
SWELL TRAINS COMBINING WITH MODERATE WIND WAVES. WEST SWELL WILL
BUILD TO AROUND 14 FEET AT 17 SECONDS FRIDAY MORNING. -MSC/SPILDE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND ARE THICKER IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN TONIGHT,
BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FROM
FORMING IN THE SAME AREAS AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING
EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL OPEN UP THE DOOR FOR MORE
CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALSO A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THE FIRST FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. I SUSPECT THE THE MODELS, IN PARTICULAR THE NAM ARE TOO
BULLISH WITH THE QPF FIELDS ALONG THE COAST AND MAY ONLY BE THE
SACRIFICIAL LAMB. TYPICALLY WHEN FRONTS LIKE THIS RUN INTO A RIDGE
(ESPECIALLY ONE THAT IS RATHER STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR)
THEY TEND TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE, HENCE THE REASONING FOR KEEPING
POPS BELOW GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, THE OMEGA FIELDS ARE HIGHER AT THE
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD BE AN ARGUMENT FOR HIGHER
POPS. IT WILL BE INTERESTING WHAT THE HRRR SHOWS LATER THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT (CURRENT RUN ONLY GOES OUT TO 3AM PST). THE EVENING AND
NIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO REEVALUATE THIS AND INCREASE POPS ALONG THE
COAST FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING IF THERE`S STRONGER EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT
IT.
SHOWERS (IF WE GET ANY) ON WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
THE COAST. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH JUST OFF THE OREGON COAST. THE MODELS KEEP
MOST OF THE PRECIP OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING, THEN SHOWS SOME INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUSPECT THIS ALSO MAY BE OVERDONE. INSTABILITY
IS MARGINAL AT BEST AND THE TRIGGER IS WEAK OR NON- EXISTENT.
THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE`LL GET ANYTHING. SO WE`LL
KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW BUT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, LATER SHIFTS
WILL WANT TO REEVALUATE.
THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
EAST INTO THE AREA BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER ON FRIDAY, BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALL THE
PASSES. -PETRUCELLI
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A MORE WESTERLY JET STREAM
WILL BRING A WARM FRONT INLAND ON SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 5500 FEET IN OREGON AND UP TO 7000 FEET IN
THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE IN A FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON OUR FORECAST AREA SEEING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
BY MONDAY HOWEVER BOTH MODELS STRENGTHENS THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE ON ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG AND ALLOWS SOME
OVERRUNNING. AS A RESULT WE ARE KEEPING MONDAY DRY BUT RE-INTRODUCE
CHANCE POPS FOR COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE WE MAY SHIFT BACK TO A WET PATTER AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. /FB
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM TO
4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ370.
$$
MAS/MAP/MSC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
359 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A CONSTANT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON AS WELL AS CREATE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELT AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT SNOW WINDING DOWN OVER YORK/LANCASTER COUNTIES. THE SNOW
OVER THE WEST IS STARTING TO FORM A COHERENT MASS BUT THIS MIGHT
NOT LAST LONG. THE VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER KBUF WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE TO THE EAST AND POSSIBLY DIMINISH THE SNOW THIS MORNING
BEFORE IT PICKS BACK UP AGAIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HRRR AND RAP
BOTH GENERATE AN E-W BAND OF SNOW ALONG AND JUST TO THE S OF RTE
6 THIS MORNING BUT IT BECOMES MIGRATORY THRU THE DAY. ONLY THE
LOWER SUSQ WILL HAVE A DECENT SHOT AT CLEARING OUT TODAY ON THE
DOWNHILL SIDE OF THE WESTERLY FLOW. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
BLUSTERY IS BEST WORDING TODAY. GUSTS COULD BE INTO THE 20S AREA
WIDE AND NEAR 30MPH IN THE LAURELS. THIS COMBINE WITH THE SNOW
THERE COULD LEAD TO VERY POOR DRIVING. BUT THE SNOW INTENSITY WILL
NOT BE TOO TERRIBLE UNTIL LATER TODAY. ABOUT 4-5F IS ALL WE WILL
BE ABLE TO ADD TO MAXES TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THRU THIS EVENING AND CARVES THE BASE OF
THE BIGGER TROUGH. THIS MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF BETTER
ORGANIZATION TO THE UPSLOPE SNOW AND PUSH SOME ACCUMULATION OVER
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL/RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.
BUT ACCUMS IN THAT AREA WOULD BE ONLY AN INCH OR SO. IT GETS
UNIFORMLY COLDER ALL UP/DOWN THE COLUMN TONIGHT AND THE SATURATED
DGZ IS PIERCED THRU BY THE BEST UPWARD FORCING/OMEGAS. THUS...IT
SHOULD BE PRETTY EASY TO GET A FLUFFY SNOW OUT OF THE ATMOS
TONIGHT. SLR/S COULD BE 25:1 OR 30:1. SO EVEN WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT
QPF IN THE MDLS...WE SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR HIGHER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TOTALS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN
THE N/W AND WIND CHILLS GO INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
OVERNIGHT/THURS MORNING.
AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST ON THURS...WE SHOULD IMPROVE
WITH SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF IN THE MORNING IN THE LAURELS. BUT
IT COULD TAKE ALL DAY FOR THEM TO LIFT OUT OF THE SNOW BELT. HAVE
EXTENDED THE TIME OF THE WINT WX ADVY FOR THE LAURELS INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY THURS TO MATCH TIMES WITH OUR LK EFF ADVY. MAXES
WILL BE ONLY 12-25F WHICH ARE ABOUT 15 TO 25 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE WITH ARCTIC
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY. FRIGID TEMPERATURES/DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.
POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE FIRST SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.
THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM AROUND 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ.
VALLEY TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.
A SLOW MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WITH A POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING/WAA TYPE SNOW EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
06Z TAFS SENT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF I 80. THE DRIER FLOW IS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST...WHICH WILL SIGNAL AN END TO MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS...OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE AND TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTED REGIONS. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER TO FLURRIES AS THE EVENING
CONTINUES...CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT AS
WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES A BIT OVERNIGHT CIGS WILL IMPROVE AS WELL
IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. LOWER SUSQ WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH
CENTRAL MTNS HOLDING ON TO AN MVFR DECK. WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES IN THE AIR WITH UPSLOPE FLOW
KEEPING MAINLY IFR CIGS IN PLACE. EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE TOWARD
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
WED...MAINLY IFR IN SNOW WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS
CENTRAL/EAST.
THU-SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.
SUN...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/MARTIN/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
308 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON CLOUD COVER WITH WHETHER IT WILL CLEAR OUT
AND IF SO...HOW FAST.
CURRENTLY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
FROM THE SURFACE ON UP THROUGH THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE DUE TO A STACKED
TROUGH ENTERING NEW ENGLAND. NOT MUCH WILL CHANGE WITH THIS PATTERN
LOCALLY TODAY WITH A RIDGE AXIS PLACED ALONG THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND A QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING THROUGH
THE DAKOTAS/CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED AS WELL WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES HANGING AROUND -20C. IR
SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN EXTENDING UP
TO LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A CLEAR SLOT ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN. NONE OF THE
SHORT TERM MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS THIN LAYER OF
MOISTURE AROUND 3KFT WITH THE 10.06Z RAP THE CLOSEST WHEN COMPARED
TO THE HRRR/WRF-ARW/NMM. WITH THE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...AM
EXPECTING THAT SOME OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OF OF THE LAKE WILL
HELP TO KEEP SOME SORT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND TODAY UNTIL THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY TONIGHT.
.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ELONGATED SHEAR AXIS ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH
WILL SHIFT EAST WITH STRONG NW UPPER FLOW PERSISTING. VERY CHILLY
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH 925 TEMPS SHOWING ONLY SUBTLE
MODIFICATION AS LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TURNS MORE WESTERLY. SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS FROM MN INTO IA AND IL.
.FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
NORTHWEST 500 MILLIBAR FLOW STRENGTHENS AND BECOMES INCREASINGLY
CYCLONIC ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WITHIN
THIS FLOW HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO LWR MI WITH CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE
EASTERN GRT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH SRN
WI. 925 TEMPS WILL DROP THROUGH THE NEGATIVE TEENS CELSIUS WITH
NEGATIVE LOW AND EVEN POSSIBLE MID 20S CELSIUS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS WITH WIND CHILLS GETTING
NEAR OR IN SOME CASES REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON WIND STRENGTH LATER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A
WEAKER GRADIENT SETTING UP WITH 1040 MILLIBAR HIGH DRAWING CLOSER
FROM MN AND IA. THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A LITTLE MORE WIND
POTENTIAL.
.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
AFTER A BITTERLY COLD START 1045 MILLIBAR HIGH AND SUBSIDING
INFLUENCE SHOULD RESULT IN A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. MID LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS STRONG FROM THE NORTHWEST THOUGH TRENDING MORE
ANTICYCLONIC. CORE OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS SRN
WI WITH 925 TEMPS AOB -20C IN THE MORNING MODIFYING ONLY INTO THE
UPPER TEENS CELSIUS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE CHILLY SUPERBLEND
GUID SHOWING MANY HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS
SEEMS REASONABLE.
.SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING AND LINGERING INFLUENCE OF LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL DOMINATE AT THE OUTSET...MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADING EAST FROM DAKOTAS/MN AND IA THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WAA REGIME SETS UP INITIALLY
WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING LESS PRODUCTIVE QPF THAN THE GFS. 850
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW CHANCES.
BEST DCVA PROGGD TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE AFTN INTO THE ERLY EVE
HRS.
.MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LOW LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST THOUGH STILL LINGERING MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW. SO SMALL SUPERBLEND POPS CONTINUE.
.TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RIDE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOME
PRETTY BIG TIMING DIFFERENCES. GFS BRINGS THIS SYSTEM IN MUCH
QUICKER DURING THE DAY WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS PRECIP OFF UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WENT WITH THE SUPERBLEND POPS....WHICH FAR
NOW ANYWAYS...FAVORS THE QUICKER GFS SOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...LOW END VFR/HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH CLEAR SKIES ON BOTH SIDES
OF IT. EXPECTING THAT CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY BE VFR BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR...PARTICULARLY AT MSN WHERE THE BAND
IS CURRENTLY SET UP. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND TURN WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND TURNING TO THE WEST TOWARD TOMORROW MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT...POSSIBLY A BIT LONGER IF THE WAVES STAY UP IN THE 3-5
FT RANGE TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HALBACH
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
944 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF MONTAUK TODAY...AND INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS A
DEVELOPING OCEAN STORM PASSES BY TO THE SOUTHEAST. STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PER CURRENT RADAR AND EXTRAPOLATED TREND WHICH MATCHES HRRR FAIRLY
WELL...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT MIDDAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS EXPECTED.
A SHRTWV OVER SOUTHERN NJ AND DELMARVA NEAR DC WILL TRACK ENEWD
TODAY...AND IS LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST S OF LONG ISLAND. IF IT WERE
TO SKIRT LONG ISLAND...SOME PLACES...PARTICULARLY THE SOUTH SHORE
OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND...COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO ACCUMULATION
LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE LLVLS DRY OUT THIS AFTN WITH WLY FLOW...SO SNOW CHCS DECREASE
THRU THE DAY. THERE REMAINS SOME WEAK LIFT IN THE NEARLY SATURATED
H85-H7 REGION TNGT. THIS LEVEL WILL BE THERMALLY CONDUCIVE TO SNOW
PRODUCTION. AS A RESULT...INCLUDED FLURRIES IN THE FCST.
TEMPS GENERALLY A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH TRENDED HIGHS
CLOSER TO THE COLDER 00Z NAM 2M TEMPS DUE TO THE SNOW COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
H5 TROF AXIS...INCREASINGLY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO SCT TO NMRS SNOW SHWRS. SOME OF THESE COULD
BE LOCALLY HVY WITH THE NAM EVEN PRODUCING ABOUT 100 J/KG OF
SBCAPE. WENT WITH COVERAGE WORDING IN THE FCST. IN ADDITION TO THE
SNOW...WINDS SHOULD MIX DOWN ON UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
PRODUCE GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. BRIEF PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
WILL THEREFORE BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOW SHWRS OCCUR.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BRISK NW FLOW AFTER COLD FROPA THU SHOULD PEAK DURING THE
EVENING...WITH POSSIBILITY OF WINDS REACHING ADVY CRITERIA IN
NYC AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND. THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THU
NIGHT...BUT WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH IN TANDEM WITH LOW TEMPS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS INLAND AND TEENS NYC/COASTAL SECTIONS TO
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 0 TO 5 ABOVE.
FAIR ON FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S...THEN AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FRI NIGHT...PASSING THROUGH LATE AT NIGHT OR EARLY SAT
MORNING. MEANWHILE A STRONG SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE INCREASINGLY
AMPLIFIED FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THIS TIME SHOULD
INITIATE SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST ON FRI...WITH THE LOW PASSING TO THE SE OF LONG
ISLAND LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. THESE SYSTEMS HAVE
MADE A HABIT OF TRACKING CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN MODEL FCST...AND
SO INCREASED GUIDANCE POP A LITTLE TO BRING CHANCES TO NYC EAST
FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION.
THEN A QUICK SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATER
SAT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS AGREE ON H8 TEMPS AS COLD AS -29C
TO -30C APPROACHING LATE SAT NIGHT...WHICH SUPPORTS FCST LOW
TEMPS CLOSE TO ZERO IN NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND...0 TO 5 BELOW
MOST ELSEWHERE...AND A LITTLE COLDER IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WELL
NORTH/WEST OF NYC. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH NW WINDS 10-20 MPH
WOULD PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF 15 TO 20 BELOW OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...AND 25 BELOW ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR.
THIS SHOT OF FRIGID AIR SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE ARCTIC HIGH
BUILDS OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN PASSES EAST MON MORNING. WITH
THE HIGH OVERHEAD...FCST LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT OF 10-15 IN NYC AND
SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE COULD END UP AT LEAST SEVERAL DEG COLDER
IF CLOUD COVER APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HOLDS OFF UNTIL MON.
HIGHS ON MON QUICKLY MODERATE TO 30-35.
OVERRUNNING THEN SETS UP MON AFTERNOON/NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION DURING THAT TIME...THEN POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET FROM NYC NORTH/WEST LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING AS
TEMPS WARM ALOFT BUT A WEDGE OF LOW LEVEL COLDER AIR REMAINS.
TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP WELL INTO THE 40S TUE AFTERNOON...CHANGING
PRECIP TO ALL RAIN THROUGHOUT BY LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE TERMINALS
THIS MORNING. CONDS LIFT TO VFR THROUGHOUT BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WEST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS...GUSTS CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT WHILE GUSTS SUBSIDE AT THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF WIND SPEED
INCREASES AND FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES DUE TO SNOW.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF WIND SPEED
INCREASES AND FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES DUE TO SNOW. A
FEW GUSTS MAY BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF WIND SPEED
INCREASES AND FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES DUE TO SNOW. A FEW
GUSTS MAY BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF WIND SPEED
INCREASES AND FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES DUE TO SNOW. A FEW
GUSTS MAY BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF WIND SPEED
INCREASES AND FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES DUE TO SNOW. A FEW
GUSTS MAY BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF WIND SPEED
INCREASES AND FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES DUE TO SNOW. A FEW
GUSTS MAY BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.THU...SLIGHT CHC -SHSN...OTHERWISE VFR. WNW GUSTS 25-30KT.
.FRI...VFR.
.SAT-SUN...VFR. NW GUSTS 20-30KT.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA COND THRU TNGT ON THE OCEAN. REISSUED FOR NY HARBOR WHERE
GUSTS SHOULD PEAK AROUND 25 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. ALL AREAS UNDER A GALE WATCH FOR THU AND THU NGT WITH
INCREASING WLY FLOW.
QUIET DAYTIME FRI WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...THEN SCA
CONDS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN FRI NIGHT...THEN GALES ON THE OCEAN SAT
INTO SAT NIGHT AND SCA CONDS ELSEWHERE AFTER AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SCA CONDS ALL WATERS ON SUNDAY SHOULD QUIET DOWN
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LGT AMTS OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. SNOW SHWRS ON THU WILL
PRODUCE BASIN AVG QPF OF LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN INCH.
LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND PASSING LOW TO
THE SE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1/4
INCH...WITH ANY HIGHER AMTS OVER SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA FROM MON NIGHT INTO TUE
HAS POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT QPF OF OVER AN INCH...WITH MOST
OF THE PRECIP MON NIGHT FALLING AS LIGHT SNOW...THEN AS MODERATE
TO HEAVIER RAIN ON TUE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND IN SURGE AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SURGE LOWERS FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING...WITH MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE MORE VULNERABLE LOCALES OF THE LONG
ISLAND SOUTH SHORE BAYS...NY HARBOR...NE NJ...AND WESTERN LONG
ISLAND SOUND.
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TONIGHT...WITH ANY
BRIEF LOCALIZED MINOR IMPACTS LIKELY BEING RELEGATED TO THE SOUTH
SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND.
&&
.CLIMATE...
WITH THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS FORECAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...RECORD MINIMUMS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS MAY BE REACHED.
HERE ARE THE RECORDS AND FORECASTS...
STATION......RECORD/FCST MINIMUM...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM/FCST HIGH
FOR 2/14 FOR 2/14
NYC...........2 (1916) / 2.............17 (1979) / 16
LGA...........1 (1979) / 3.............15 (1979) / 18
JFK...........4 (1979) / 2.............17 (1979) / 17
ISP...........7 (2015) / 0.............26 (1987) / 15
EWR...........0 (1979) / 0.............15 (1979) / 19
BDR...........3 (2015*) / -1.............18 (1979) / 15
*IN 1979 AS WELL
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CTZ009.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ071-078-177.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ074-075-080-
178-179.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR ANZ338.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
751 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF MONTAUK TODAY...AND INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS A
DEVELOPING OCEAN STORM PASSES BY TO THE SOUTHEAST. STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PER CURRENT RADAR AND EXTRAPOLATED TREND WHICH MATCHES HRRR FAIRLY
WELL...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT MIDDAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS EXPECTED.
A SHRTWV OVER SOUTHERN NJ AND DELMARVA NEAR DC WILL TRACK ENEWD
TODAY...AND IS LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST S OF LONG ISLAND. IF IT WERE
TO SKIRT LONG ISLAND...SOME PLACES...PARTICULARLY THE SOUTH SHORE
OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND...COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO ACCUMULATION
LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE LLVLS DRY OUT THIS AFTN WITH WLY FLOW...SO SNOW CHCS DECREASE
THRU THE DAY. THERE REMAINS SOME WEAK LIFT IN THE NEARLY SATURATED
H85-H7 REGION TNGT. THIS LEVEL WILL BE THERMALLY CONDUCIVE TO SNOW
PRODUCTION. AS A RESULT...INCLUDED FLURRIES IN THE FCST.
TEMPS GENERALLY A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH TRENDED HIGHS
CLOSER TO THE COLDER 00Z NAM 2M TEMPS DUE TO THE SNOW COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
H5 TROF AXIS...INCREASINGLY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO SCT TO NMRS SNOW SHWRS. SOME OF THESE COULD
BE LOCALLY HVY WITH THE NAM EVEN PRODUCING ABOUT 100 J/KG OF
SBCAPE. WENT WITH COVERAGE WORDING IN THE FCST. IN ADDITION TO THE
SNOW...WINDS SHOULD MIX DOWN ON UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
PRODUCE GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. BRIEF PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
WILL THEREFORE BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOW SHWRS OCCUR.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BRISK NW FLOW AFTER COLD FROPA THU SHOULD PEAK DURING THE
EVENING...WITH POSSIBILITY OF WINDS REACHING ADVY CRITERIA IN
NYC AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND. THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THU
NIGHT...BUT WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH IN TANDEM WITH LOW TEMPS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS INLAND AND TEENS NYC/COASTAL SECTIONS TO
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 0 TO 5 ABOVE.
FAIR ON FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S...THEN AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FRI NIGHT...PASSING THROUGH LATE AT NIGHT OR EARLY SAT
MORNING. MEANWHILE A STRONG SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE INCREASINGLY
AMPLIFIED FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THIS TIME SHOULD
INITIATE SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST ON FRI...WITH THE LOW PASSING TO THE SE OF LONG
ISLAND LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. THESE SYSTEMS HAVE
MADE A HABIT OF TRACKING CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN MODEL FCST...AND
SO INCREASED GUIDANCE POP A LITTLE TO BRING CHANCES TO NYC EAST
FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION.
THEN A QUICK SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATER
SAT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS AGREE ON H8 TEMPS AS COLD AS -29C
TO -30C APPROACHING LATE SAT NIGHT...WHICH SUPPORTS FCST LOW
TEMPS CLOSE TO ZERO IN NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND...0 TO 5 BELOW
MOST ELSEWHERE...AND A LITTLE COLDER IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WELL
NORTH/WEST OF NYC. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH NW WINDS 10-20 MPH
WOULD PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF 15 TO 20 BELOW OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...AND 25 BELOW ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR.
THIS SHOT OF FRIGID AIR SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE ARCTIC HIGH
BUILDS OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN PASSES EAST MON MORNING. WITH
THE HIGH OVERHEAD...FCST LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT OF 10-15 IN NYC AND
SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE COULD END UP AT LEAST SEVERAL DEG COLDER
IF CLOUD COVER APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HOLDS OFF UNTIL MON.
HIGHS ON MON QUICKLY MODERATE TO 30-35.
OVERRUNNING THEN SETS UP MON AFTERNOON/NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION DURING THAT TIME...THEN POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET FROM NYC NORTH/WEST LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING AS
TEMPS WARM ALOFT BUT A WEDGE OF LOW LEVEL COLDER AIR REMAINS.
TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP WELL INTO THE 40S TUE AFTERNOON...CHANGING
PRECIP TO ALL RAIN THROUGHOUT BY LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MAINLY MVFR OR VFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND DRIZZLE THIS MORNING. THERE
WILL BE SOME POCKETS OF IFR AS WELL. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR AROUND 15Z WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END. VSBY
RESTRICTIONS COULD FALL TO IFR IN AREAS OF SNOW.
WESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS MORNING. GUSTS WILL DEVELOP AROUND
MIDDAY. AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS GUSTS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
WHILE GUSTS SUBSIDE AT THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR CHANGING
FLIGHT CATEGORIES DUE TO SNOW. A FEW GUSTS MAY BE HIGHER THAN
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR CHANGING
FLIGHT CATEGORIES DUE TO SNOW. A FEW GUSTS MAY BE HIGHER THAN
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR CHANGING
FLIGHT CATEGORIES DUE TO SNOW. A FEW GUSTS MAY BE HIGHER
THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR CHANGING
FLIGHT CATEGORIES DUE TO SNOW. A FEW GUSTS MAY BE HIGHER
THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR CHANGING
FLIGHT CATEGORIES DUE TO SNOW. A FEW GUSTS MAY BE HIGHER THAN
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR CHANGING
FLIGHT CATEGORIES DUE TO SNOW. A FEW GUSTS MAY BE HIGHER
THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.LATE WED NIGHT...VFR. W GUSTS 20-25KT AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS.
.THU...SLIGHT CHC -SHSN...OTHERWISE VFR. WNW GUSTS 25-30KT.
.FRI...VFR.
.SAT-SUN...VFR. NW GUSTS 20-30KT.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA COND THRU TNGT ON THE OCEAN. REISSUED FOR NY HARBOR WHERE
GUSTS SHOULD PEAK AROUND 25 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. ALL AREAS UNDER A GALE WATCH FOR THU AND THU NGT WITH
INCREASING WLY FLOW.
QUIET DAYTIME FRI WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...THEN SCA
CONDS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN FRI NIGHT...THEN GALES ON THE OCEAN SAT
INTO SAT NIGHT AND SCA CONDS ELSEWHERE AFTER AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SCA CONDS ALL WATERS ON SUNDAY SHOULD QUIET DOWN
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LGT AMTS OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. SNOW SHWRS ON THU WILL
PRODUCE BASIN AVG QPF OF LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN INCH.
LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND PASSING LOW TO
THE SE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1/4
INCH...WITH ANY HIGHER AMTS OVER SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA FROM MON NIGHT INTO TUE
HAS POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT QPF OF OVER AN INCH...WITH MOST
OF THE PRECIP MON NIGHT FALLING AS LIGHT SNOW...THEN AS MODERATE
TO HEAVIER RAIN ON TUE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND IN SURGE AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SURGE LOWERS FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING...WITH MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE MORE VULNERABLE LOCALES OF THE LONG
ISLAND SOUTH SHORE BAYS...NY HARBOR...NE NJ...AND WESTERN LONG
ISLAND SOUND.
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TONIGHT...WITH ANY
BRIEF LOCALIZED MINOR IMPACTS LIKELY BEING RELEGATED TO THE SOUTH
SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND.
&&
.CLIMATE...
WITH THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS FORECAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...RECORD MINIMUMS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS MAY BE REACHED.
HERE ARE THE RECORDS AND FORECASTS...
STATION......RECORD/FCST MINIMUM...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM/FCST HIGH
FOR 2/14 FOR 2/14
NYC...........2 (1916) / 2.............17 (1979) / 16
LGA...........1 (1979) / 3.............15 (1979) / 18
JFK...........4 (1979) / 2.............17 (1979) / 17
ISP...........7 (2015) / 0.............26 (1987) / 15
EWR...........0 (1979) / 0.............15 (1979) / 19
BDR...........3 (2015*) / -1.............18 (1979) / 15
*IN 1979 AS WELL
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ009.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ071-078-177.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ074-075-080-
178-179.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR ANZ338.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
628 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AND SQUALLS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST WED-6 PM EST
THU FOR HERKIMER/HAMILTON COS...
FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FA WHERE SEVERAL BANDS OF SNOW HAVE SET UP EARLY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THESE BANDS TO DRIFT INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE
MORNING WEARS ON. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE 1 TO PERHAPS 3
INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FOR TODAY...A DOUBLE BARREL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS A COASTAL LOW
PASSES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD. AT THE SAME TIME A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL BANDS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW TO MOVE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA THIS MORNING. ONCE THE SURFACE LOW PASSES
BY THERE WILL BE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING BACK ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLDER AIR FUNNELING ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES CAN
GENERALLY EXPECT 1 TO 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BY LATE TODAY.
HIGHS TODAY ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 30S
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST WED-6 PM EST
THU FOR HERKIMER/HAMILTON COS...
FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE FA WITH A LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND EXPECTED TO STRETCH ACROSS NORTHERN
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES THIS EVENING AND THEN SETTLE
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY...AND SW HAMILTON
COUNTY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMS BY LATE
THU IN THE ADVISORY AREA SHOULD RANGE FROM 4-8 INCHES OVER A 36+
HOUR PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS ACROSS CENTRAL HERKIMER
COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WED NT INTO THU ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES. IN
THESE AREAS...ADDITIONAL COATINGS OF A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE IN THE MAINLY IN THE TEENS
EXCEPT 5 TO 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD
BECOME MULTIBAND AND SHIFT TO OUR WEST AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS
THU NT. THEN ON FRI...WINDS WILL BE BACKING IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. SO...SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN FROM NW TO SE LATE FRI. IT WILL ALREADY BE COLD...WITH THU
NT/FRI AM MINS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. WIND CHILL
VALUES COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS IN PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK FRI. THEN ON FRI...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO
REACH THE 20S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...COLDEST ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY COLD AS ARCTIC AIR FUNNELS
ACROSS THE FA. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO 15 BELOW ZERO TO 15
ABOVE ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS ZERO TO 25 BELOW ZERO. THUS WIND CHILL
ADVISORYS MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY...THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER
SEASON WILL POUR INTO UPSTATE NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SATURDAY...AS A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX SWINGS ACROSS NEW YORK AND
NEW ENGLAND. THE CORE OF THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE
REGION...ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF BRUTALLY COLD AIR TO IMPACT THE
REGION. IN FACT...850 HPA TEMPS ARE SHOWN BY SEVERAL MODELS TO
DROP TO -30 TO -35 DEGREES C. THESE TEMPS COULD BE RECORD COLD
LEVELS FOR 850 HPA TEMPS AT ALBANY...AS THE COLDEST 850 HPA TEMP
MEASURED AT KALY IS -30 C ON A FEW PAST OCCASIONS.
TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE STEADY/FALLING THE ENTIRE DAY. VALLEY
AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MORNING NEAR 10...AND FALL THROUGH THE
SINGLE DIGITS...WITH HIGH TERRAIN AREAS BELOW ZERO THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. IN ADDITION...GUSTY W-NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WILL MAKE
FOR VERY COLD WIND CHILLS LEVELS. IT SHOULD BE DRY...HOWEVER...WITH
NO PRECIP EXPECTED...AND A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.
FOR SAT NIGHT...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE BITTER COLD TEMPS AND
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. LOWS TEMPS WILL FALL TO -5 TO
-15 DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS...AND -10 TO -20 OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THESE TEMPS ARE IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING THERE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ALL
NIGHT...AND SOME AREAS HAVE LITTLE SNOW PACK IN PLACE. ALONG WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS -20 TO -30
DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS AND -30 TO -50 IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WIND CHILL WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS DANGER IN THE HWO STATEMENT.
TEMPS WILL RISE ON SUNDAY TO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHS IN MOST
AREAS...ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. ALTHOUGH IT WON/T BE
QUITE AS WINDY...THERE WILL STILL BE A BREEZE...AND WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL STILL BE RATHER LOW. WINDS MAY FINALLY START TO DIMINISH
ON SUNDAY NIGHT....AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW...EXPECT PARTS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WILL BE -5 TO -10 DEGREES.
TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE MODERATING VERY QUICKLY ON MONDAY...AS THE COLD
CORE SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH INTO THE 20S
FOR MOST AREAS FOR HIGHS. AT THIS POINT...THERE IS A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT SPEED/TRACK
OF A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...BUT THIS IS STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN.
BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST GETS MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH MAY START TO TURN UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AND MAY MERGE/PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
HEADING TOWARDS THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z GEFS/00Z GGEM ALL HINT
AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF QPF WITH THE SYSTEM
WHICH COULD TRACK OVER/CLOSE TO THE REGION. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z GFS
HAS THESE SYSTEMS STAYING SEPARATE...AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
GENERALLY REMAINING SOUTH/EAST OF THE REGION. IF IT OCCURS AS SHOWN
IN SOME OF THE GEFS MEMBERS OR LATEST ECMWF...P-TYPE WOULD BE A
MAJOR ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESP CONSIDERING THE 00Z ECMWF
SOLUTION...WHICH COULD BRING SNOW/MIXED PRECIP/RAIN...AND
POTENTIALLY BACK TO ANY OR ALL OF THE ABOVE. THE STORM TRACK...WHICH
IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...WILL DETERMINE THE EXACT P-TYPE AND
AMOUNTS...AND IT COULD WIND UP TRACKING OVER I-95 OR THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...IT/S PROBABLY WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE
VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING THIS WEEKEND WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE
AT LOW LEVELS...SO A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP IS CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY. DUE TO THIS STILL BEING DAYS 7-8 AND LARGE AMOUNTS OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM TRACK/TIMING...WILL NOT INCLUDE IN HWO
JUST YET...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR MODEL TRENDS. HAVE
GONE WITH HIGH CHC POPS FOR NOW BETWEEN MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY TUESDAY AFTN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP THESE RATHER
SCATTERED IN COVERAGE...BRIEF IN DURATION...AND LIGHT IN
INTENSITY.
BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE...WILL
INCLUDE TEMPO FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR ALL TAF SITES. WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY IFR AT THIS TIME DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE OF SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT CAN/T TOTALLY RULE IT OUT FOR KALB OR KPSF.
LIGHT OR CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES.
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK MAINLY
VFR WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 3500-4000 FT...ALTHOUGH SOME PERIODS OF
MVFR DUE TO SOMEWHAT LOWER CIGS OR PASSING SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. S-SW WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 5-10 KTS BY THE MID
TO LATE MORNING HOURS. SKIES WILL START TO CLEAR OUT SOMEWHAT FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WEST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
SCATTERED -SHSN. BREEZY.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED -SHSN.
BREEZY.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.
WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY
ONE LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.
WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:
ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES
GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015
FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979
FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979
FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...KL/11
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...KL/11
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
807 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO
A ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ON SUNDAY,
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY.
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
755 AM: NO STORM TOTAL SNOW MAP THIS MORNING. TOO FAST A DEPARTURE.
SNOW PROBS CONTINUE AS POSTED EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER..COUNT
ON SCATTERED .1 TO .5 INCH IN NJ/DE 8A-10A. NO OTHER CHANGES AT
THIS TIME. SPS/HWO UPDATED. NO NOW CASTS...COVERED BY SPS.
6 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SHOW THE CURRENT BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH OUR
AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE OR MOVE OFF THE COAST BY 10 AM.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY IN THE
DAY. AS A RESULT, WE SHOULD SEE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MOVE OUT OF
THE REGION BY MID DAY.
IN THE LOW LEVELS, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS, RESULTING IN LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. AS SUCH, EXPECT HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE
30S FOR MOST OF THE REGION, WHILE THE POCONOS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE
20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A SECOND, LESS DEFINED, MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED THE TREND OF A SMALL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER, I AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST, THE REGION WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER THE LEFT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET
THROUGH THIS TIME, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT LIFT. SECONDLY, IN ADDITION TO
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION, ALSO EXPECT CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER (SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING), SO MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL. WE WILL BE
LOOKING FOR A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND FROM LERIE TO POSSIBLY STREAM
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO A PORTION OF E PA AND NJ.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED WILL LIKELY FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE REGION. OUR REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE STRONG CAA WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND OFF THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BUFKIT ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS
MAY REACH 30 MPH AT TIMES. ALSO LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO
STEEPEN DURING THE DAY WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES DURING THE DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE AIDED BY ELEVATION ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NW NJ.
WITH THE STRONG CAA PUSH WILL TREND TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER THAN
MET/MAV AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR
WINDS TO DECREASE AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.
CONDITIONS LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPARED TO
TONIGHT.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. TRENDS WITH BOTH THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
FORM A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF US AND OFFSHORE,
SO THE POSSIBILITY OF A COASTAL LOW NEAR US IN THIS PERIOD HAS
GREATLY DECREASED. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN
EASTERN PA AND NW NJ, SIMILAR TO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. BUFKIT
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING AGAIN SATURDAY SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY SO WIND GUSTS COULD BE QUITE STRONG, OVER 30 MPH AGAIN.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 850 MB LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C ACROSS MOST
OF REGION AS CURRENTLY MODELED. AS IN OTHER PERIODS WILL CONTINUE TO
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE. NORTHWEST WINDS ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS SATURDAY WILL
LIKELY TO BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
SPOTS FROM -10 IN THE DELMARVA TO LOWER THAN -20 IN THE POCONOS.
PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES MONDAY
AND TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY. TWO CAMPS ARE CURRENTLY
PRESENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS ARE THE SPEED OF VARIOUS SHORTWAVES
WHICH ULTIMATELY DEVELOP THE STORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES AND THE DEGREE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING MODELS DEVELOP AHEAD OF
IT. THE UKMET AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH OVERALL TIMING ALLOWING
FOR MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO FORM OVER THE REGION AND IN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS ALLOWS FOR AS WARMER AND FURTHER WEST TRACK WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN MAINLY A RAIN EVENT. THE FASTER GFS AND CMC SOLUTIONS
SHIFT THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM FURTHER EAST AND ARE FASTER, TRACKING
IT UP THE EAST COAST WHICH WOULD BE A SNOWIER OUTCOME. FOR NOW
WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH, THIS BRINGS SNOW IN
MONDAY WHICH GRADUALLY MIXES AND CHANGES TO RAIN BY TUESDAY.
ENSEMBLE DATA IS CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER WESTWARD
TRACK. HOWEVER, GIVEN THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS A LOT OF ENSEMBLE
SPREAD IS STILL PRESENT AND THE VARIOUS FEATURES INVOLVED WILL NOT
EVEN SAMPLED BY OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
EARLY TODAY....IFR SNOW SHOWERS WILL END FROM W TO E ACROSS NJ/DE
BY 15Z, PER THE HRRR HOURLY UPDATES AND TRENDS. MVFR FLURRIES IN E
PA AND MARYLAND E SHORE WILL BECOME ISOLATED BY 15Z AS DRIER AIR
ARRIVES ON GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
AFTER 15Z TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. WEST WIND GUST 20-25
KT.
TONIGHT...VFR CIGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE.
WEST WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 15 KNOTS SHIFTING
TO SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON SATURDAY.
SUNDAY...VFR WITH DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS FOR WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE
DELAWARE BAY TODAY. SEAS HAVE BEEN STEADILY DECREASING OVERNIGHT,
AND MAY DROP BELOW 5 FT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
TONIGHT...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
DELAYED THE START TIME OF THE GALE WATCH. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM NAM,
RAP, AND GFS AND THE PROBABILISTIC WIND SPEED GUIDANCE OF THE NAEFS
AND GEFS SHOW A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR GALES OVERNIGHT. IN ORDER TO GET
GALE FORCE WINDS, THERE WOULD HAVE TO BE A VERY DEEP MIXING LAYER
WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE BAY AND NEAR COASTAL
WATERS OVERNIGHT.
MAY ISSUE GLW AT 915 AM FOR DE BAY BEGINNING 4 AM THURSDAY FOR
WNW FLOW FUNNELING.
OUTLOOK...
MAY CONVERT GLA TO GLW ALL WATERS AT 915 AM.
FOR NOW THE GALE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IS PRESENT FOR NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR
AND JUST OVER GALE FORCE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THURSDAY AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. SEAS WILL ALSO BE AROUND FIVE FEET BEFORE
DECREASING LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. SCA NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. AFTER A LULL WITH SEAS AND WINDS FOR A GOOD
PART OF FRIDAY AND MAYBE INTO EARLY SATURDAY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL LEAD TO RAMP UP ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF NORTHWEST GALE
FORCE GUSTS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SEAS
NEAR AND OVER FIVE FEET. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS BELOW GALE
FORCE WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR GALES
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF FREEZING SPRAY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL
WITH THE FIRST ROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A SHIFT TO OFF SHORE FLOW, AND LOWER ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, COASTAL
FLOODING CONCERNS ARE WINDING DOWN, WITH TWO EXCEPTIONS.
FIRST, FOR THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY SHORE, WINDS WERE SLOWER TO SHIFT
TO WESTERLY AS COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE REGION. AS A RESULT,
WATER LEVELS AT SANDY HOOK AS WE APPROACH LOW TIDE ARE RUNNING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE. THUS, COULD SEE ONE MORE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE WITH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THIS MORNING.
FOR CAROLINE, TALBOT, AND QUEEN ANNE`S COUNTY IN MD, EXPECT MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THAT WILL OCCUR BY 9 AM
THIS MORNING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.
AM ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITH 3F OF ZERO
(WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY
EXCEPT COLDER KMPO. THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M
TEMPS CYCLICALLY FOR THE PAST 3 DAYS. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR
RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE
KABE, KTTN AND KPHL.
SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE WHERE
WE ARE AT BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS APPEAR ON THE WAY THE
NEXT 30 HOURS.
BE A GOOD IDEA TO CHECK ON ELDERLY/PETS DURING THE WEEKEND AND CHECK
FUEL SUPPLIES IN ADVANCE...BY FRIDAY. AVOID GOING WITHOUT HEAT
THIS WEEKEND. WONT TAKE LONG FOR WIND DRIVEN COLD TO FREEZE WATER
PIPES IN UNHEATED FACILITIES.
2015-16 SO FAR RER 14TH
ABE 8......... -1 1979
ACY 10........ -6 1979
PHL 12........ +2 1979
ILG 12........ -4 1979
RDG 10........ -4-1983
TTN 9......... 0 1916
GED 13........ -7 1979
MPO -1........ -12 1970
SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 25 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ012>014-020-026.
DE...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ015-
019-020.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ430-431-450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 808
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON 808
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 808
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 808
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...808
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
545 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER WEAK LOW PRESSURE TODAY. THIS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY BUT UP TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDY
WEATHER LINGERS TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET
TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF
BREAK IN STORE FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN
FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES FOR POP AND TEMPS AS SNWFL EDGES CLOSER TO
THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW POCKETS OF SN SHOWERS HAVE INTERMITTENTLY
CROSSED PARTS OF NH SO FAR...BUT ABOUT AN HOUR OR SO TO THE W THE
MORE CONCENTRATED LIFT IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF LIGHT SN THRU THE
HUDSON VALLEY. THAT WILL OVERSPREAD SWRN NH THRU THE SEACOAST THRU
MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NEW ENGLAND REMAINS ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE
OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING UPPER TROF. THIS FAVORABLY PLACES THE AREA
ON THE WAA SIDE...AND COUPLED WITH ANY S/WV TROF ROTATING THRU THE
LARGER FLOW...WX WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED.
ONE SUCH STRONGER S/WV TROF WILL MOVE THRU THE ERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE SLY FLOW INTO THE AREA...AND DEVELOP A
WEAK SFC TROF IN THE REGION. THIS PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR SN SHOWERS
THRU TODAY. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS NH
FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY. REGIONAL RADAR STARTING TO SHOW
ECHOES DEVELOPING TO THE SW...LENDING SOME CREDIBILITY TO THOSE
SOLUTIONS. QPF WILL BE LIGHT...BUT AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
IS POSSIBLE THRU NOON FOR NH. ACTIVITY SHIFTS EWD IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SN SHOWERS SHIFTS TO COASTAL
WRN ME. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WRN ZONES AGAIN LATER
TODAY...AS LATEST HRRR RUNS DEVELOP BANDS OF SN SHOWERS THAT MOVE
OFF THE GREAT LAKES AS CAA PICKS UP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FEEL THAT WE TAKE A BRIEF BREAK TONIGHT WITH THE PRECIP.
HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT
ALOFT...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SN SHOWER. POP GENERALLY STAYS
AROUND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE AREA. ALSO EXPECT TO SEE SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO TONIGHT. WITH GENERAL CLOUD COVER...BUT SOME BREAKS
DEVELOPING. THOSE AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO QUICKLY COOL OFF...BUT
TOUGH TO IDENTIFY OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE.
UPPER TROF AXIS IS SET TO CROSS THE AREA THU. EXPECT MORE SN
SHOWERS TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. LATE IN THE DAY STRONG CAA
LOOKS LIKELY. IN ADDITION TO FALLING TEMPS...WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
NIGHT BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET AFTER
MIDNIGHT BOTTOMING OUT AT 5 BELOW TO NEAR ZERO NORTH AND RANGING
THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS SOUTH.
NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST
ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL AVERAGE OUTWELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH READINGS ONLY REACHING 5 TO 15 NORTH AND MID TEENS TO
MID 20S SOUTH.
WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT
DRIVING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS OVERNIGHT WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP TO 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE NORTH AND 5 TO 10
DEGREES SOUTH.
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KICK IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON.
DEEP UPPER LOW SETTLING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN UPSLOPE
AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH.
UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT BUT INTENSE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SHOULD SEE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DESPITE THE WINDS EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO DIP TO 10 TO 15 BELOW NORTH
AND 5 TO 10 BELOW SOUTH. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE STRONG
WINDS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY EXCEED WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS A GOOD PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. LOOKING FOR A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IN
THE SOUTH WITH MOUNTAIN CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND LOWER TO MID TEENS SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD SEE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS OF 5 TO 10 BELOW NORTH AND 5 BELOW
TO 5 ABOVE SOUTH.
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK
ON MONDAY AS A BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING PUSHES IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS
WILL LOWER AND THICKEN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS PUSH IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS BY
LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY EVENING...BUT NOT LOOKING LIKE A
BIG DEAL AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM MAY BE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE
HITS THE EAST COAST AND SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW BUT MODELS SHOWING
SOME BIG DIFFS IN TRACK AND TIMING WITH THIS FEATURE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN CONTROL OF A BROAD UPPER
TROF. THIS IS KEEPING THE WX A LITTLE UNSETTLED...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THRU THU. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE SLOWLY MOVING
INTO AND THRU THE AREA...AND WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS NH THE
FIRST PART OF TODAY. WRN ME WILL SEE MVFR CIGS ADVANCE INTO THOSE
ZONES BY THE AFTERNOON. WITHIN THE SFC TROF...SNWFL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH AREAS OF IFR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACTLY WHERE
AND HOW LONG IFR CONDITIONS LAST...BUT AGAIN MOST LIKELY AREAS ARE
ACROSS NH TERMINALS. TROF AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THU...WITH SHSN
LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN.
LONG TERM...AREAS MVFR CEILINGS THURSDAY EVENING...BECOMING VFR.
VFR FRIDAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
VFR ON SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH SEAS ARE GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO LONG PERIOD
SWELL. WITH SOME WAVE HEIGHTS STILL OVER 7 FT...WILL CONTINUE THE
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THRU MORNING. AS COLD FNT CROSSES THE
WATERS LATE THU...A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS IS
POSSIBLE. RIGHT NOW MOST LIKELY AREAS ARE S OF CAPE
ELIZABETH...AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.
LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS
MORNING FOR ANZ150-152-154.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR ANZ154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...SINSABAUGH
AVIATION...LEGRO/SINSABAUGH
MARINE...LEGRO/SINSABAUGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
950 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES WITH UP
TO AN ADDITIONAL SIX INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH MID DAY THURSDAY. MOST
AREAS WILL SEE A LULL IN THE SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE BY FRIDAY BRINGING MORE SNOW. HOWEVER AT
THIS POINT IT APPEARS THIS SNOW WILL BE LIGHTER. IT WILL REMAIN
COLD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.
THE WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN COLD...THEN WE SEE A SLIGHTLY WARM UP FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW SHOULD MOVE IN FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016
THE UPDATED ZONE FORECAST AND WINTER STORM WARNING FOR KALAMAZOO
COUNTY HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 922 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016
I WILL VERY SHORTLY PUT KALAMAZOO COUNTY IN A WINTER STORM
WARNING SINCE WE HAVE HAD A REPORT OF 9 INCHES IN ALAMO IN
NORTHWEST KALAMAZOO COUNTY. RADAR DATA (STORM TOTAL SNOW DEPTH
FROM 88D) SHOWS THAT SNOW BAND EXTENDED FROM PORT SHELDON THROUGH
HOLLAND...TO JUST WEST OF THE CITY OF ALLEGAN THROUGH ALAMO. THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP MODEL SUGGEST THE SNOW BANDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT WESTERN KALAMAZOO COUNTY THE REST OF THE DAY.
BASED ON THAT...IT MAKES SENSE TO ADD THEM TO THE WARNING...SO I
WILL AND I WILL RUN THE WARNING TO MATCH THE OTHERS... 10 AM
THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED HEB 10 2016
WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH THE HEADLINES.
INVERSION LEVELS DROP A BIT TODAY AS LAST NIGHTS SHORT WAVE MOVES
EAST. HOWEVER EVEN AT 7K FEET THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
HEALTHY LAKE EFFECT BANDS. OVERALL EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN AND INTENSITY OF THE SNOW TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THE FLOW
REMAINS 330-335 THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SO THE HEAVIER BANDS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
LAKESHORE COUNTIES...AND ALL OF VAN BUREN COUNTY. SOME AREAS MAY
PICK AN ADDITIONAL SIX INCHES OF SNOW...AND LOCALLY MORE. WINDS
WILL ALSO REMAIN A FACTOR...CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING FOR MUCH OF
TODAY. MEANWHILE INLAND AREAS WILL ONLY SEE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW
WITH ACCUMS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.
EXPECT THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ITS POSSIBLE WE MAY BE ABLE TO
CANCEL THE HEADLINES AND BIT EARLY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS.
THE INVERSION LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 4K FEET FOR A BIT THURSDAY
NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING THE SNOW WILL COMPLETE END...BUT THE INTENSITY
WILL DROP OFF.
THE LAKE EFFECT WILL PERK UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER
MOVING IN. HOWEVER THE INVERSION LEVELS SEEM TO ONLY BUMP UP A
BIT...SO EXPECTING MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW. GENERALLY TWO INCHES OR LESS
FROM THIS SYSTEM FOR THE LAKESHORE AND LESS THAN AN INCH INLAND.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016
PATTERN STARTS OUT QUITE AMPLIFIED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. VERY COLD AIR WILL
BE PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITHIN THIS TROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE STILL FORECAST TO HIT
-26C TO -27C AT 700AM SAT. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO F. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT GIVEN THE VERY COLD
AIR AND NORTHERLY FLOW...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION OR
IMPACT.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AND COLD WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE DIFFICULT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE FLOW BECOMES ONE OF A FAST ZONAL NATURE.
TIMING SHORTWAVE/S IN A ZONAL FLOW AT DAY 5 AND 6 IS A TOUGH CALL.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH OUR AREA
THOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE CHANCE POPS 30-
50 PCT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE SURFACE FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ARE WEAK WITH THE ECMWF. THE SYSTEM IS A BIT MORE
DEVELOPED IN THE GFS. AT THIS POINT...SIDING WITH THE WEAKER ECMWF
AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. TUESDAY ANOTHER
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE OUT AT DAY 7 IN A ZONAL
REGIME. HAVE SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.
AFTER A COLD WEEKEND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 719 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016
STEADY STATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO MOST OF
TONIGHT. THE WAY THE BANDS WILL BE SITUATED IN A NORTH-NORTHWEST
FLOW...KLAN...KBTL AND KJXN WILL NOT BE AFFECTED TOO MUCH. THERE
WILL BE SOME OCCASIONAL MVFR AT THESE INLAND TAF SITES TODAY...BUT
MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE VFR.
THE BANDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT KAZO THE MOST AS THE BAND SHIFTS IN
AND OUT OF THAT TAF SITE. MVFR WILL BE LIKELY THERE WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS.
KMKG AND KGRR WILL SEE SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL...BUT CONDITIONS WILL
BE VARYING MORE VFR TO MVFR.
A NORTHWEST WIND OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON PLACE TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016
WE HAVE ENDED THE GALE WARNING AND REPLACED IT WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVIOSRY UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 249 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
THE MAPLE RIVER AT MAPLE RAPIDS CONTINUES TO SHOW IMPROVEMENT AS
EXPECTED. REALISTICALLY...THE RATE AT WHICH IT IS FALLING MAY
ALLOW IT TO BE DROPPED BY FRIDAY. THE MAIN STORY THEN SHIFTS TO
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON...POSSIBLY LEADING TO ICE BUILD UP
RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY BECOME COOLER EACH DAY THIS WEEK WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS BELOW FREEZING AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE
TEENS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR SEEMS TO MAKE IT
IN BY THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MANY
LOCATIONS AND SOME AREAS POSSIBLY DIPPING BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL
CERTAINLY ASSIST IN ICE FORMATION FOR STREAMS AND RIVERS...BECOMING
MORE OF A FOCUS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF RUNOFF. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL STAY HUGGED ALONG
THE LAKE MICHIGAN BORDERING COUNTIES AND OTHER AREAS TYPICAL OF
NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL JUST BE A DELAYED CONCERN IF ADDITIONAL
LIQUID MOISTURE IS RECEIVED IN THE NEAR FUTURE. AS FOR NOW...THE
TOTALS OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK ARE ONLY LOCALLY HIGH NEAR THE
LAKE WITH AREA WIDE AVERAGES STAYING RELATIVELY LOW WHEN
CONSIDERING THE EPISODIC NATURE OF THE EVENT.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ037-043-056-
064-071-072.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ038-050.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...NJJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
922 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES WITH UP
TO AN ADDITIONAL SIX INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH MID DAY THURSDAY. MOST
AREAS WILL SEE A LULL IN THE SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE BY FRIDAY BRINGING MORE SNOW. HOWEVER AT
THIS POINT IT APPEARS THIS SNOW WILL BE LIGHTER. IT WILL REMAIN
COLD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.
THE WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN COLD...THEN WE SEE A SLIGHTLY WARM UP FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW SHOULD MOVE IN FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016
I WILL VERY SHORTLY PUT KALAMAZOO COUNTY IN A WINTER STORM
WARNING SINCE WE HAVE HAD A REPORT OF 9 INCHES IN ALAMO IN
NORTHWEST KALAMAZOO COUNTY. RADAR DATA (STORM TOTAL SNOW DEPTH
FROM 88D) SHOWS THAT SNOW BAND EXTENDED FROM PORT SHELDON THROUGH
HOLLAND...TO JUST WEST OF THE CITY OF ALLEGAN THROUGH ALAMO. THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP MODEL SUGGEST THE SNOW BANDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT WESTERN KALAMAZOO COUNTY THE REST OF THE DAY.
BASED ON THAT...IT MAKES SENSE TO ADD THEM TO THE WARNING...SO I
WILL AND I WILL RUN THE WARNING TO MATCH THE OTHERS... 10 AM
THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED HEB 10 2016
WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH THE HEADLINES.
INVERSION LEVELS DROP A BIT TODAY AS LAST NIGHTS SHORT WAVE MOVES
EAST. HOWEVER EVEN AT 7K FEET THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
HEALTHY LAKE EFFECT BANDS. OVERALL EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN AND INTENSITY OF THE SNOW TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THE FLOW
REMAINS 330-335 THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SO THE HEAVIER BANDS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
LAKESHORE COUNTIES...AND ALL OF VAN BUREN COUNTY. SOME AREAS MAY
PICK AN ADDITIONAL SIX INCHES OF SNOW...AND LOCALLY MORE. WINDS
WILL ALSO REMAIN A FACTOR...CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING FOR MUCH OF
TODAY. MEANWHILE INLAND AREAS WILL ONLY SEE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW
WITH ACCUMS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.
EXPECT THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ITS POSSIBLE WE MAY BE ABLE TO
CANCEL THE HEADLINES AND BIT EARLY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS.
THE INVERSION LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 4K FEET FOR A BIT THURSDAY
NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING THE SNOW WILL COMPLETE END...BUT THE INTENSITY
WILL DROP OFF.
THE LAKE EFFECT WILL PERK UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER
MOVING IN. HOWEVER THE INVERSION LEVELS SEEM TO ONLY BUMP UP A
BIT...SO EXPECTING MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW. GENERALLY TWO INCHES OR LESS
FROM THIS SYSTEM FOR THE LAKESHORE AND LESS THAN AN INCH INLAND.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016
PATTERN STARTS OUT QUITE AMPLIFIED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. VERY COLD AIR WILL
BE PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITHIN THIS TROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE STILL FORECAST TO HIT
-26C TO -27C AT 700AM SAT. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO F. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT GIVEN THE VERY COLD
AIR AND NORTHERLY FLOW...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION OR
IMPACT.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AND COLD WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE DIFFICULT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE FLOW BECOMES ONE OF A FAST ZONAL NATURE.
TIMING SHORTWAVE/S IN A ZONAL FLOW AT DAY 5 AND 6 IS A TOUGH CALL.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH OUR AREA
THOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE CHANCE POPS 30-
50 PCT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE SURFACE FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ARE WEAK WITH THE ECMWF. THE SYSTEM IS A BIT MORE
DEVELOPED IN THE GFS. AT THIS POINT...SIDING WITH THE WEAKER ECMWF
AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. TUESDAY ANOTHER
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE OUT AT DAY 7 IN A ZONAL
REGIME. HAVE SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.
AFTER A COLD WEEKEND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 719 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016
STEADY STATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO MOST OF
TONIGHT. THE WAY THE BANDS WILL BE SITUATED IN A NORTH-NORTHWEST
FLOW...KLAN...KBTL AND KJXN WILL NOT BE AFFECTED TOO MUCH. THERE
WILL BE SOME OCCASIONAL MVFR AT THESE INLAND TAF SITES TODAY...BUT
MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE VFR.
THE BANDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT KAZO THE MOST AS THE BAND SHIFTS IN
AND OUT OF THAT TAF SITE. MVFR WILL BE LIKELY THERE WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS.
KMKG AND KGRR WILL SEE SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL...BUT CONDITIONS WILL
BE VARYING MORE VFR TO MVFR.
A NORTHWEST WIND OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON PLACE TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016
GALE FORCE WIND NORTH OF WHITEHALL WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ROUGH THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 249 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
THE MAPLE RIVER AT MAPLE RAPIDS CONTINUES TO SHOW IMPROVEMENT AS
EXPECTED. REALISTICALLY...THE RATE AT WHICH IT IS FALLING MAY
ALLOW IT TO BE DROPPED BY FRIDAY. THE MAIN STORY THEN SHIFTS TO
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON...POSSIBLY LEADING TO ICE BUILD UP
RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY BECOME COOLER EACH DAY THIS WEEK WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS BELOW FREEZING AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE
TEENS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR SEEMS TO MAKE IT
IN BY THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MANY
LOCATIONS AND SOME AREAS POSSIBLY DIPPING BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL
CERTAINLY ASSIST IN ICE FORMATION FOR STREAMS AND RIVERS...BECOMING
MORE OF A FOCUS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF RUNOFF. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL STAY HUGGED ALONG
THE LAKE MICHIGAN BORDERING COUNTIES AND OTHER AREAS TYPICAL OF
NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL JUST BE A DELAYED CONCERN IF ADDITIONAL
LIQUID MOISTURE IS RECEIVED IN THE NEAR FUTURE. AS FOR NOW...THE
TOTALS OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK ARE ONLY LOCALLY HIGH NEAR THE
LAKE WITH AREA WIDE AVERAGES STAYING RELATIVELY LOW WHEN
CONSIDERING THE EPISODIC NATURE OF THE EVENT.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ037-043-056-
064-071.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ038-050-
072.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ848-849.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>847.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
417 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016
A BAND OF SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN MN. THE REST OF THE REGION
WILL BE DRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE COOLER
THAN NORMAL...WITH LIGHT WINDS.
EARLY MORNING RADAR IMAGERY WITH RAP SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MN...WITH A SURFACE LOW UPSTREAM OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE SURFACE SLOW WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEAST TOWARD NEBRASKA IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL PV
ANOMALY EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW. AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WAS
ALREADY ON RADAR ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...AND THIS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE. CENTRAL AND EASTERN MN...AND WESTERN WI
WILL BE DRY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO COLD THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...SO INCREASED TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR TODAYS HIGHS AND TONIGHTS
LOWS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016
THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/ WILL FEATURE A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND THUS A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE CWA WILL BE CONTINUOUSLY UNDER A RIDGE AXIS
UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY
COLD CONDITIONS. THE ONLY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF THE MINNESOTA RIVER OVER
SOUTHWEST MN WHEN A RIPPLE /NOT UNLIKE THE ONE CURRENTLY IMPACTING
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/ EXPLOITS A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE SURFACE
RIDGING. ONLY VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED.
THE COLDEST NIGHT WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT AS A 1045 MB HIGH SETTLES
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE LATE UNDER CLEAR SKIES
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS
THE CWA...AND LIKELY INTO THE -20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MN
AND WEST CENTRAL WI.
THAT HIGH WILL BE WHAT FINALLY KICKS THE TROUGH OUT OF NEW ENGLAND
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MARK A TRANSITION TO A MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA AS A RIDGE SLOWLY
ADVANCES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
THE FIRST OF TWO STORM SYSTEMS WILL ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WAA SNOW
THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. GFS IS MORE
BULLISH THAN THE ECMWF...BUT BOTH MODELS BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
PLOWABLE ACCUMULATION BY SUNDAY EVENING. POPS WERE ALMOST BROUGHT
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY...BUT KEPT THEM JUST BELOW 55 WITH SOME
PRETTY LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THIS TIME RANGE...NAMELY THE
LOW TRACK WHICH IS ALMOST 500 MILES BETWEEN THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF.
THE SECOND SYSTEM ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE SOUTHERN RIDGE
A BIT FURTHER EAST...THIS ONE COULD WRAP UP INTO A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM A LA THE ECMWF. STILL LARGE DIFFERENCES AMONGST
THE GUIDANCE...CERTAINLY NOT UNEXPECTED GIVEN IT IS 7 DAYS OUT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT AT ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR KRWF. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR THIS LOCATION SHOW LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
FOR THE REST OF THE SITES...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. THIS MORNINGS SNOW WILL BE WELL
TO THE WEST OF MSP...WINDS SHOULD PICK UP AN EASTERLY COMPONENT
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL THEN BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND NW AT 5-10KT BECOMING W.
FRI...VFR. WIND NW AT 10G20 KT.
SAT...VFR. WIND NNE AT 5 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1010 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO NEW
ENGLAND TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A PROGRESSIVELY COLDER
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WHILE GENERATING ACCUMULATING LAKE SNOWS TO THE LEE OF
THE GREAT LAKES. THE MOST FRIGID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY...WHEN HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH ABOVE
ZERO...AND WIND CHILLS WILL BE AT DANGEROUSLY LOW LEVELS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MORNING UPDATE...UPGRADED NIAGARA...ORLEANS AND MONROE COUNTIES
TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING AND SHIFTED THE START TIME TO 9AM
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. KBUF RADAR IS SHOWING
A WELL ORGANIZED SNOW BAND RIDING THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO
SHORELINE FROM YOUNGSTOWN EAST TO WEBSTER STAYING JUST NORTH OF
DOWNTOWN ROCHESTER. THE KING CITY CANADIAN RADAR SHOWS AN UPSTREAM
CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY WHICH IS ENHANCING THE LAKE BAND OVER
THE WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO LAKESHORE. KBUF RADAR ESTIMATED SNOW
RATES ARE RANGING FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WITHIN THE BAND
WHICH HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY A PASSING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND 700MB
MOISTURE PLUME. THIS ALONE HAS INCREASED CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE TO
A WARNING WITH MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE LATEST HRRR AND RGEM
MODELS SUGGESTING THE BAND COULD PERSIST IN PLACE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHILE THE CORE OF HEAVIEST SNOW SLOWLY SHIFTS
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST LAKES SHORE. SNOW TOTALS WITHIN THIS NEWLY
UPGRADED WARNING HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO A RANGE OF 7 TO 15 INCHES
RANGING FROM TODAY INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE OF THE LATEST WARNING UPGRADE...THE FORECAST REMAINS
UNCHANGED FROM THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY...WITH A
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC-SOURCED AIRMASS OVERSPREADING OUR REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT. OUTSIDE OF AREAS OF OROGRAPHICALLY-INDUCED AND
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITHIN THE COLDER
AIRMASS...THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING CLOUDY SKIES AND A GENERAL LIGHT
SNOWFALL OF A FEW INCHES TO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WHILE
ALSO CONTINUING THE TREND TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES.
REGARDING THE AREAS OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL MENTIONED ABOVE...
OFF LAKE ERIE...A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW TODAY WILL VEER MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A NOTEWORTHY MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
UNDER THIS FLOW REGIME...THE STEADIEST LAKE AND TERRAIN-ENHANCED
SNOWS WILL TEND TO FOCUS MOST ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE REGION
OF SOUTHERN ERIE/CHAUTAUQUA/CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM PERIOD...WITH THE ACTIVITY BECOMING INCREASINGLY LAKE-DRIVEN
OVER TIME AS OUR AIRMASS GROWS COLDER. THE HEAVIEST AND MOST
PERSISTENT SNOWS IN THIS REGION ARE FALLING THIS MORNING THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWS TONIGHT TIED TO THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THE SUBSEQUENT POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON LATER ON TONIGHT. WITH LAKE
EQLS OF 8-10 KFT IN PLACE AND FAVORABLE MOISTURE LYING BELOW
THAT...THE STAGE APPEARS SET FOR WARNING-CRITERIA SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED REGION BETWEEN TODAY AND THURSDAY. SOME
OF THE HEAVIER SNOWS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO OCCASIONALLY VENTURE INTO
WESTERN WYOMING COUNTY AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
MORNING...WHERE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
MEANWHILE OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS ARE NOW TAKING
SHAPE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LAKE ON A WESTERLY FLOW. THE CORE OF
THESE SNOWS WILL SHIFT EVENTUALLY INTO THE WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BETTER ALIGNED OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST
BEFORE SETTLING EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. AS WITH THE
LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY...A PRETTY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE WITH
LAKE EQLS OF 8-10 KFT PRESENT AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE LYING BELOW
THAT TO RESULT IN A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR WARNING-CRITERIA SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WHERE THE SNOWS WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH IN THIS CASE APPEARS TO BE THE NORTHEASTERN WAYNE-
SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY CORRIDOR WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS ARE
IN EFFECT. MEANWHILE NORTH OF THIS WARNING AREA... LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE TUG HILL REGION WHERE LESSER BUT
STILL ADVISORY-WORTHY AMOUNTS APPEAR LIKELY BETWEEN TODAY AND
THURSDAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THESE TO PEAK IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S BETWEEN THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
STEADILY DROP INTO THE 10-15 RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN
THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BY LATE
TONIGHT...READINGS MAY EVEN FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE LOWER LAKES REGION.
ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST. THE
MAIN FOCUS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE WITH THE ONGOING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
OFF LAKE ERIE...
LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY REMAINS STRONG THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 10K FEET. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE FETCH
ACROSS LAKE ERIE BUT ALSO PROVIDE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...MOST LIKELY THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
COUNTY NEAR FINDLAY LAKE GIVEN THE FLOW DIRECTION. THIS UPSTREAM
CONNECTION WILL END LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
BACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. THE END OF THE UPSTREAM CONNECTION
AND ALSO A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDING OVER LAKE ERIE SHOULD
WEAKEN THE LAKE ERIE LAKE EFFECT LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
EXPECT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-6 INCHES ON THURSDAY IN
PERSISTENT BANDS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS FOCUSED ON THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND
ALSO WHERE THE LAKE HURON CONNECTION FORMS. THIS WILL BRING STORM
TOTALS FROM LATE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE 12-18 INCH RANGE IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS...MAINLY IN A
RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF UPSLOPE FLOW JUST INLAND FROM THE
LAKESHORE.
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BACK TO THE
WEST AND EVENTUALLY WSW AS A SURFACE LOW RACES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO IN ADVANCE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE BACKING WINDS WILL ALLOW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO RE-ORGANIZE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS FETCH
INCREASES ACROSS THE LAKE. INSTABILITY REMAINS STRONG THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 10K FEET...ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS MAY
DRY OUT IN THE TOP OF THAT LAYER. EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BUFFALO METRO AREA FOR A TIME
FRIDAY MORNING...ALSO EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GENESEE
AND WYOMING COUNTIES. THIS BAND OF SNOW MAY PRODUCE AT LEAST
MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS...WITH UNCERTAINTIES STILL ON THE IMPACT OF
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT AND INCREASING SHEAR WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE ARCTIC FRONT. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY REQUIRE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT
HEADLINES AS THE DETAILS BECOME MORE CERTAIN.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...
SIMILAR TO LAKE ERIE...LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY REMAINS STRONG
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 10K FEET. ON
THURSDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST...WITH SNOW ALONG
MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE. THE 290 WIND DIRECTION SUGGESTS
THERE WILL BE A RELATIVE MAX IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS
WAYNE/NORTHERN CAYUGA/SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTIES WHERE THE FETCH IS
MAXIMIZED. MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE
UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY WILL RESIDE TO THE WEST OF
ROCHESTER ON THURSDAY. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS ON THURSDAY OF
3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE MOST FAVORED AREAS OF NORTHERN/EASTERN WAYNE
COUNTY INTO NORTHERN CAYUGA AND FAR SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTIES.
FARTHER WEST EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE SHORE FROM ROCHESTER TO
PORTIONS OF ORLEANS AND EASTERN NIAGARA COUNTIES. THE WILDCARD IN
THIS AREA IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE UPSTREAM GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTION
WHICH MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE TOTALS.
THURSDAY NIGHT MAY VERY WELL BE THE TIME OF MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL
FOR A SMALL AREA SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS THE BAND CONSOLIDATES
WITH BACKING FLOW OVERNIGHT. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WNW
AND EVENTUALLY WESTERLY...INCREASING FETCH AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
LENGTH OF THE LAKE. THIS WILL ALLOW SNOW TO END FROM ROCHESTER
WESTWARD DURING THE EVENING AS THE BAND LIFTS NORTH AND OFFSHORE.
FARTHER EAST...EXPECT AN INTENSIFYING SINGLE BAND OF SNOW OVER
EASTERN WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW QUICKLY BACKS FURTHER TO WEST AND WSW...WHICH WILL CARRY THE
BAND RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD PEAK FROM SODUS INTO NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTY
WITH ANOTHER 8-10 INCHES POSSIBLE. EXPECT A QUICK 2-4 INCHES ACROSS
OSWEGO COUNTY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE BAND MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS
THE COUNTY.
ON FRIDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES ALIGNED FROM THE SOUTHWEST...
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
AGAIN ACROSS JEFFERSON AND NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES. LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS REMAIN HIGH...ALTHOUGH SHEAR MAY INCREASE WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. THIS BAND MAY PRODUCE MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY
REQUIRE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT HEADLINES ONCE THE DETAILS BECOME
MORE CERTAIN.
LAST BUT NOT LEAST...A POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY CAPTURE AND
MERGE WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A VERY
HEAVY SNOW SQUALL PASSING SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WHERE THE LAKE CONTRIBUTION
MAXIMIZES. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NNW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AS 850MB TEMPS PLUMMET TO AN AVERAGE OF
-32C. TO PUT THIS IN PROSPECTIVE...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER
RECORDED AT 850MB ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS
-28C...AND THE COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY MONTH IS -32C.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON LOCATION. ANY ABOVE ZERO
TEMPERATURES FIRST THING IN THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON AS THE
CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT CROSSES THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE WELL
BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH -20 OR BETTER ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH NO MODERATING LAKE INFLUENCE. THE COMBINATION OF
MODERATE WINDS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD
WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE FRIGID NORTH FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. DESPITE THE
EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY DRY AND
TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY...BUT NOT END
ALTOGETHER UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH CRESTS OVERHEAD.
THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION
BRINGS TEMPS BACK TO AVERAGE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THE REGION BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW...ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER A GOOD DEAL ON
THE TIMING AND TRACK DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA TODAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...INCREASING MOISTURE AND
DEEPENING COLD AIR CONTINUES WIDESPREAD SNOW AND IFR/LOW MVFR
CONDITIONS TODAY...WHILE WESTERLY FLOW AND ADDED LAKE ENHANCEMENT
REDUCES CONDITIONS TO AS LOW AS LIFR IN MORE LOCALIZED LAKE SNOWS
EAST OF BOTH LAKES.
TONIGHT...EXPECT CONTINUED IFR/LIFR IN AREAS OF HEAVIER LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...WITH MVFR/IFR IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY
PREVAILING ELSEWHERE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...AND IFR/LIFR IN AREAS OF HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
FRIDAY...IFR/MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND AREAS OF HEAVIER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...
WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE LAKES...WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO NEW
ENGLAND TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A BRISK FLOW OF
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY
WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE
ELECTED TO EXTEND OUR EXISTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH
SATURDAY FOR NOW...THOUGH IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THESE MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED EVEN A BIT FURTHER OUT IN TIME.
IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE EXPECTED BRISK WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ007-008.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
NYZ001>003-019-020-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ012.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JJR/SMITH
MARINE...JJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
953 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 955 AM WEDNESDAY...ONLY A FEW CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.
SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION AND HAVE IMPROVED SKY
COVER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME INCREASED MOISTURE AROUND
5000 FEET LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINK MOST OF THE DAY WILL
BE SUNNY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE LOWER 40S AND
NO CHANGES TO TEMP FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...BASE OF UPR TROF EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
AREA THIS EVENING...LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. LOW LVLS
WILL REMAIN MIXED WITH PERSISTENT WEST WINDS 5-15 MPH WHICH WILL
INHIBIT MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT COLD AND DRY AIR MASS WILL
STILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 20S INLAND AND AROUND 30 OBX.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 510 AM WED...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS ARCTIC AIRMASS INVADES EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WX WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE NW THU INTO FRI AS
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO ROTATE ALONG THE BASE OF THE EAST
COAST UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND SUNNY SKIES
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S THU...WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE 20S THU NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FRIDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE SE STATES STRENGTHENS MOVING ALONG THE NC COAST. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS
MADE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. 00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE NOW TRENDING MUCH WETTER FOR FRI. THERMAL
PROFILES...CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES AND SREF PLUMES SUPPORT
PREDOMINANT PTYPE AS -SN WITH MAYBE A MIX OF -SN/-RA ALONG THE
COAST...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD SATURATION IN THE
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO DEVELOP
A SLIGHT WARM NOSE ALOFT...SO SOME SLEET AND POSSIBLY -FZRA COULD
ALSO BE MIXED IN WITH THE PRECIP...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA FRI WITH HIGHER POPS
E OF HWY 17...AND ADDED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA...LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT SHIFT IN TRACK
OF THE LOW COULD IMPACT THE FORECAST GREATLY AND THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS.
A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING A MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS TO
THE REGION. VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET TO -15 TO
-20C BY SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE
1225-1240M RANGE...RESULTING IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND. SOME RECORD LOW MAX VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS 35-40 DEGREES SAT...AND THEN UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S
FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. THE OUTER BANKS COULD SEE
SOME FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON AND OFF SAT INTO SUN.
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
REGARDING THE TIMING...STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THEN SFC
LOW. WILL CONTINUE SC/LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...WITH BEST
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS -RA/-SN
MIX MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN. TEMPS LOOK
TO REBOUND AND RETURN TO NEAR CLIMO...HIGHS MON 40-50 DEGREES AND
TUE IN THE LOW/MID 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TAF PERIOD. CURRENT SKC CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...THEN ADDITIONAL SHRT WV ENERGY WILL RESULT IN
SCT-BKN SCU AND AC DEVELOPMENT LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTN WITH ANY
CIGS ABV 3K FT. CLOUDS DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING. WEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT AGAIN LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTN. DRY AND MIXED ATMOS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...INHIBITING FOG
DEVELOPMENT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AND THU NIGHT.
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 25KT THU AFTERNOON. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE LIKELY FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE NC
COAST...BRINGING THE THREAT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE
TERMINALS. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...MAYBE MIXED WITH LIGHT RAIN
AND SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM WEDNESDAY...LATEST 3KM HRRR AND RAP MODELS SHOW GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING A BIT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN
INCREASING AGAIN AROUND DARK PER PREVIOUS FORECAST. SEAS HAVE
DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE YESTERDAY...BUT REMAIN IN THE 6-9 FOOT
RANGE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. LIKEWISE THE
E-NE LONG PERIOD SWELL IS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO DIMINISH. AS USUAL
WITH THIS PATTERN...WW3 HAS INITIALIZED BETTER WITH OBSERVED SEAS
AS NWPS IS TOO HIGH WITH OFFSHORE FLOW. ADJUSTED WAVE HEIGHT FCST
WITH WW3 AND WILL INDICATE HEIGHTS SUBSIDING TO 4-6 FT OUTER
PORTIONS OF SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS THIS AFTN...BUT THEN INCREASING
BACK UP TO 5-7 FT TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...UNSETTLED BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW THU AND FRI.
GUSTY WNW WINDS 15-25KT AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL START OFF THU...BUT
SHOULD BE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THE DAY. COULD SEE SEAS DROP
BELOW 6FT BY THU EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE NC COAST FRIDAY...WHILE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW, INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR
FRI. THOUGH WILL KEEP AOB 15KT WITH SEAS 2-4FT. EXPECT STRONGER
WINDS LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-9FT.
WINDS WILL PEAK SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...LATEST GDNC IS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST
THINKING OF DIMINISHING E-NE SWELL COMBINING WITH HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TO PRODUCE ANOTHER BOUT OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING FOR OUTER BANKS AROUND HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THERE UNTIL NOON TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY ADDITIONAL OCEAN OVERWASH AND BEACH EROSION THAT MAY OCCUR.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135-150-
156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
AMZ152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...CTC/JBM/CQD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
934 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016
SNOW INTENSITIES STARTING TO DIMINISH WITH VSBYS IMPROVING ACROSS
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND CENTRAL VALLEY AS STRONGEST RADAR
RETURNS ARE NOW IN SOUTHEASTERN ND. MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED FOR
THE UPDATE WITH A TWEAK TO THE POPS COVERAGE TO MATCH CURRENT
TRENDS. ENDING TIME FOR THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS IS ON TRACK WITH -SN LINGERING ACROSS E ND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016
SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH THE RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING A 150
KT JET STREAK DIGGING INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. SNOW HAS BEEN
FALLING SINCE BEFORE 06Z IN OUR WESTERN CWA...WITH AUTOMATED SITES
SHOWING AROUND 0.06 TO 0.08 INCHES OF LIQUID SO FAR. THE SNOW BAND
LINES UP WELL WITH THE UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE JET AS WELL AS
700MB FRONTOGENESIS SEEN ON SPC MESO PAGE. VIS HAS BEEN MOSTLY IN
THE 2 TO 5SM RANGE ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES HAVE BEEN DOWN TO 1SM AT
TIMES. THE MODELS HAVE FRONTOGENESIS CONTINUING UNTIL AROUND 18Z
TODAY...SO THINK WE SHOULD HAVE PRETTY DECENT BAND OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES. SOME OF THE RECENT RUNS HAVE BEEN
BACKING OFF ON QPF...BUT WILL KEEP THE 3 INCHES ACROSS THE WEST
FOR NOW AND SEE HOW THINGS ARE AT 12Z. DID CUT THE AMOUNTS IN RED
RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL BE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP
BAND.
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHEST READINGS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND
COLDER TEMPS EVEN WITH MORE SUN IN THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL START
OUT WELL BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT
ON TEMPS TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL START MOVING INTO WESTERN ND...SO OUR WEST SHOULD BE
CLOUDY EVEN AS THE PRECIP STAYS OUT OF THE CWA. THE NORTHEAST WILL
AGAIN HAVE VERY LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...SO GETTING
DOWN INTO THE 10 TO 15 BELOW RANGE WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. THE
CLOUDY WEST AND MORE SUNNY EAST SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS AGAIN SHOWING A DECENT GRADIENT OF SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW 20S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES BY LATE
FRIDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG DOWN THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING A BIT FURTHER WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL KEEP SOME LOW
POPS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BUT THINK IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL. OF GREATER NOTE IS A SURGE OF COLDER AIR COMING DOWN
DURING THE PERIOD. THE MORE THAN 1040MB HIGH DIGGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP HIGHS ON FRIDAY BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES
COLDER THAN THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...MUCH OF THE CWA
WILL DROP INTO THE 10 TO 20 BELOW RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS...AND SOME SPOTS IN THE EAST COULD BE EVEN COLDER.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THIS RUN. NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW WAVES
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS WITH RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION. A WAVE PROGRESSES EAST ON SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN BEHIND
THE SYSTEM...ANOTHER WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...WITH MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KDVL WHICH IS
STILL 1SM WITH CIGS IN THE 9000-1300 FT RANGE. THINK THAT
CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE AT KDVL IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS THE SNOW BAND MOVES OFF. KGFK AND KFAR HAVE BEEN REPORTING SOME
FLURRIES AND HAVE VIS IN THE 5-6SM RANGE ALTHOUGH CIGS ARE STILL
IN THE VFR RANGE. EXPECT THE LOWERED VIS TO NOT LAST VERY LONG AS
THE SNOW BAND WILL BE SOUTH OF KGFK BY MID MORNING AND KFAR BY
18Z. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY HANG AROUND KDVL BUT OTHER SITES SHOULD BE
VFR FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST
SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD BUT BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
657 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 657 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016
THE MAIN ISSUE IS SNOW AMOUNTS. REPORTS HAVE BEEN SPARSE...BUT GOT
ONE OF 3 INCHES IN DEVILS LAKE. THIS FITS WITH THE LOWER END OF
THE SNOW TOTAL RANGE ON RADAR ESTIMATE. ADJUSTED GRIDS FOR CURRENT
SNOW AMOUNTS. BAND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING ON THE NORTH END
AND THINK SNOW WILL BE ENDING SOON THERE WHILE THE
SHEYENNE/FAR SOUTHERN RED BASINS WILL SEE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO. ALL
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE PRECIP PRETTY MUCH ENDING BY 18Z. WILL
KEEP THE SPS GOING AND UPDATE TOP NEWS FOR UPDATED WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016
SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH THE RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING A 150
KT JET STREAK DIGGING INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. SNOW HAS BEEN
FALLING SINCE BEFORE 06Z IN OUR WESTERN CWA...WITH AUTOMATED SITES
SHOWING AROUND 0.06 TO 0.08 INCHES OF LIQUID SO FAR. THE SNOW BAND
LINES UP WELL WITH THE UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE JET AS WELL AS
700MB FRONTOGENESIS SEEN ON SPC MESO PAGE. VIS HAS BEEN MOSTLY IN
THE 2 TO 5SM RANGE ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES HAVE BEEN DOWN TO 1SM AT
TIMES. THE MODELS HAVE FRONTOGENESIS CONTINUING UNTIL AROUND 18Z
TODAY...SO THINK WE SHOULD HAVE PRETTY DECENT BAND OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES. SOME OF THE RECENT RUNS HAVE BEEN
BACKING OFF ON QPF...BUT WILL KEEP THE 3 INCHES ACROSS THE WEST
FOR NOW AND SEE HOW THINGS ARE AT 12Z. DID CUT THE AMOUNTS IN RED
RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL BE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP
BAND.
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHEST READINGS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND
COLDER TEMPS EVEN WITH MORE SUN IN THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL START
OUT WELL BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT
ON TEMPS TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL START MOVING INTO WESTERN ND...SO OUR WEST SHOULD BE
CLOUDY EVEN AS THE PRECIP STAYS OUT OF THE CWA. THE NORTHEAST WILL
AGAIN HAVE VERY LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...SO GETTING
DOWN INTO THE 10 TO 15 BELOW RANGE WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. THE
CLOUDY WEST AND MORE SUNNY EAST SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS AGAIN SHOWING A DECENT GRADIENT OF SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW 20S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES BY LATE
FRIDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG DOWN THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING A BIT FURTHER WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL KEEP SOME LOW
POPS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BUT THINK IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL. OF GREATER NOTE IS A SURGE OF COLDER AIR COMING DOWN
DURING THE PERIOD. THE MORE THAN 1040MB HIGH DIGGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP HIGHS ON FRIDAY BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES
COLDER THAN THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...MUCH OF THE CWA
WILL DROP INTO THE 10 TO 20 BELOW RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS...AND SOME SPOTS IN THE EAST COULD BE EVEN COLDER.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THIS RUN. NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW WAVES
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS WITH RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION. A WAVE PROGRESSES EAST ON SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN BEHIND
THE SYSTEM...ANOTHER WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...WITH MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KDVL WHICH IS
STILL 1SM WITH CIGS IN THE 9000-1300 FT RANGE. THINK THAT
CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE AT KDVL IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS THE SNOW BAND MOVES OFF. KGFK AND KFAR HAVE BEEN REPORTING SOME
FLURRIES AND HAVE VIS IN THE 5-6SM RANGE ALTHOUGH CIGS ARE STILL
IN THE VFR RANGE. EXPECT THE LOWERED VIS TO NOT LAST VERY LONG AS
THE SNOW BAND WILL BE SOUTH OF KGFK BY MID MORNING AND KFAR BY
18Z. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY HANG AROUND KDVL BUT OTHER SITES SHOULD BE
VFR FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST
SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD BUT BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
645 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
AREA. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS EXPECTED THE SNOW ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY SINCE
03Z. STILL SEEING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BUT ACCUMS SINCE
MIDNIGHT APPEAR TO BE UNDER AN INCH WITH STORM TOTALS MAINLY 1 TO
3 INCHES WITH PERHAPS A FEW 4 INCH AMOUNTS SO FAR. THE FIRST HALF
OF TODAY SHOULD SEE LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE CURRENT SITUATION WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF KCLE. DO EXPECT MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST AND SHOULD HELP PUSH THE SNOW INTO INTERIOR AREAS. THE
LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE SNOW BLOSSOMING AFTER 18Z OVER THE EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. WILL GIVE MUCH OF THE AREA LIKELY OR
HIGHER POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ACCUMS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAY WITH AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE MOST OF THE AREA WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE SNOWBELT WHERE THE HEADLINES CONTINUE. THE
DAY CREW WILL HAVE TO WATCH EASTERN CUYAHOGA COUNTY TO MAKE SURE
THEY DON`T APPROACH ADVISORY TYPE SNOW AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PLACES LIKE TRUMBULL AND MAHONING COUNTIES COULD SEE A
COUPLE OF INCHES BY 00Z AND ANOTHER INCH OR TWO TONIGHT. THIS IS
WAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 4 INCHES IN 12 HOURS SO SEE NO NEED
FOR A HEADLINE THERE EITHER. HAVE LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS FROM THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GET GOING EARLY THIS EVENING AS SATURATED
AIR FINALLY REACHES THE PREFERRED SNOW GROWTH ZONE. THE GOOD
MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED SO EXPECTED THE WORST OF THE
EVENT TO BE TONIGHT. LAKE HURON EVENTUALLY GETS INTO THE ACT LATER
TONIGHT BUT BY THAT TIME THE GOOD SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL BE
PULLING AWAY. HAVE FINED TUNED THE SNOW TOTALS IN THE WARNING
STATEMENT THAT JUST WENT OUT. AGAIN...THE DAY CREW WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THE PERIPHERAL AREAS TO MAKE SURE ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES ARE
NOT NEEDED. RIDGING WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AND BY LATE IN THE DAY
THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE UP THE LAKE FROM THE LOCAL AREA.
WESTERN AREAS COULD SEE SOME BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT BUT THE
MAIN ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE SNOWBELT. SOME CLEARING IN THE WEST
IN POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A TRUE ARCTIC AIRMASS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
850 TEMPS POSSIBLE GETTING TO NEG 25 OR COLDER. THIS WILL BE THE
COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE YEAR. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE
ANOTHER LAKE HURON FETCH OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH AN AIRMASS THIS
COLD THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY DRY. LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR ADDITIONAL HEADLINES. HAVE
CONTINUE WITH THE FRIGID TEMPS IN THE FORECAST. MUCH OF THE AREA
SHOULD GET BELOW ZERO ON SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
WINTER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO FEATURE A BIG RIDGE OUT WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HEIGHTS RISE A BIT IN THE EAST BUT THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL START TO RECOVER AND TEMPS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO GO UP
SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON MONDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO TAKE
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIP. IT DEVELOPS AN EAST COAST LOW BY TUESDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
TAKING A SOUTHERN LOW AND BOUNCING IT BETWEEN THE OHIO VALLEY AND
THE EAST COAST BUT ULTIMATELY DEVELOPING AN EAST COAST LOW. THE CMC
ALSO HAS A SOUTHERN LOW BUT IT STAYS PRETTY FAR SOUTH. IN ANY
CASE...THERE WOULD SEEM TO BE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME WARM
ADVECTION SNOW...JUST NO CONFIDENCE ON THE AMOUNTS/DURATION YET.
CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY AND SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE. ANOTHER WAVE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY MIDWEEK AND TRACK TOWARD THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
RECOVERED TO NEAR NORMAL BY THAT TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. IFR VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS WILL OCCUR WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. THE
MAJORITY OF THE SNOW SHOULD END ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ACROSS NORTHEAST OH AND
NORTHWEST PA LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND GUSTY TODAY.
OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. NON VFR IN
SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
BRISK WINDS WILL BE COMMON ON LAKE ERIE FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW GALE FORCE.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND BECOME
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. SOME FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY BUT ACCRETION RATES SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE.
WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
ARCTIC FRONT. THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE LAKE BY FRIDAY
EVENING AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS LAKE ERIE BY SUNDAY AND WINDS
WILL LIGHTEN. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE HIGH
MOVES EAST OF THE LAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ012-
089.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ013-
014.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ001.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ002-
003.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
636 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A CONSTANT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON AS WELL AS CREATE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELT AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...
SNOW FINALLY DONE IN THE SE...AND GENERAL UPSLOPE WEAK
RETURNS/LIGHT SNOW OVER WRN PA AND SOME STREAMERS CROSSING THRU
KCLE AND HEADED FOR OUR WESTERN COS. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS IN
THE NW AND DURING THE AFTN. BFD AND JST ARE BOTH NEAR 1SM IN -SN
ATTM. NO CHANGES AS ALL IS CURRENTLY ON TRACK.
PREV...
LIGHT SNOW WINDING DOWN OVER YORK/LANCASTER COUNTIES. THE SNOW
OVER THE WEST IS STARTING TO FORM A COHERENT MASS BUT THIS MIGHT
NOT LAST LONG. THE VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER KBUF WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE TO THE EAST AND POSSIBLY DIMINISH THE SNOW THIS MORNING
BEFORE IT PICKS BACK UP AGAIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HRRR AND RAP
BOTH GENERATE AN E-W BAND OF SNOW ALONG AND JUST TO THE S OF RTE
6 THIS MORNING BUT IT BECOMES MIGRATORY THRU THE DAY. ONLY THE
LOWER SUSQ WILL HAVE A DECENT SHOT AT CLEARING OUT TODAY ON THE
DOWNHILL SIDE OF THE WESTERLY FLOW. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
BLUSTERY IS BEST WORDING TODAY. GUSTS COULD BE INTO THE 20S AREA
WIDE AND NEAR 30MPH IN THE LAURELS. THIS COMBINE WITH THE SNOW
THERE COULD LEAD TO VERY POOR DRIVING. BUT THE SNOW INTENSITY WILL
NOT BE TOO TERRIBLE UNTIL LATER TODAY. ABOUT 4-5F IS ALL WE WILL
BE ABLE TO ADD TO MAXES TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THRU THIS EVENING AND CARVES THE BASE OF
THE BIGGER TROUGH. THIS MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF BETTER
ORGANIZATION TO THE UPSLOPE SNOW AND PUSH SOME ACCUMULATION OVER
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL/RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.
BUT ACCUMS IN THAT AREA WOULD BE ONLY AN INCH OR SO. IT GETS
UNIFORMLY COLDER ALL UP/DOWN THE COLUMN TONIGHT AND THE SATURATED
DGZ IS PIERCED THRU BY THE BEST UPWARD FORCING/OMEGAS. THUS...IT
SHOULD BE PRETTY EASY TO GET A FLUFFY SNOW OUT OF THE ATMOS
TONIGHT. SLR/S COULD BE 25:1 OR 30:1. SO EVEN WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT
QPF IN THE MDLS...WE SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR HIGHER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TOTALS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN
THE N/W AND WIND CHILLS GO INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
OVERNIGHT/THURS MORNING.
AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST ON THURS...WE SHOULD IMPROVE
WITH SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF IN THE MORNING IN THE LAURELS. BUT
IT COULD TAKE ALL DAY FOR THEM TO LIFT OUT OF THE SNOW BELT. HAVE
EXTENDED THE TIME OF THE WINT WX ADVY FOR THE LAURELS INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY THURS TO MATCH TIMES WITH OUR LK EFF ADVY. MAXES
WILL BE ONLY 12-25F WHICH ARE ABOUT 15 TO 25 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE WITH ARCTIC
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY. FRIGID TEMPERATURES/DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.
POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE FIRST SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.
THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM AROUND 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ.
VALLEY TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.
A SLOW MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WITH A POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING/WAA TYPE SNOW EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z TAFS SENT.
EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS SHORTLY.
BULK OF THE SNOW NOW EAST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BFD AND JST WILL LIKELY HAVE MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO THU.
GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND THU.
FOR UNV...AND AOO...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO MAKE IT BACK
INTO THE AREA AT TIMES TODAY AND AFTER SUNSET...AS COLDER
AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...
THU...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.
FRI...MVFR IN -SHSN...MAINLY LATE WITH STRONG COLD FRONT.
SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR OTHERWISE. WINDY.
SUN...MVFR IN -SHSN IN W MTNS EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
629 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A CONSTANT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON AS WELL AS CREATE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELT AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT SNOW WINDING DOWN OVER YORK/LANCASTER COUNTIES. THE SNOW
OVER THE WEST IS STARTING TO FORM A COHERENT MASS BUT THIS MIGHT
NOT LAST LONG. THE VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER KBUF WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE TO THE EAST AND POSSIBLY DIMINISH THE SNOW THIS MORNING
BEFORE IT PICKS BACK UP AGAIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HRRR AND RAP
BOTH GENERATE AN E-W BAND OF SNOW ALONG AND JUST TO THE S OF RTE
6 THIS MORNING BUT IT BECOMES MIGRATORY THRU THE DAY. ONLY THE
LOWER SUSQ WILL HAVE A DECENT SHOT AT CLEARING OUT TODAY ON THE
DOWNHILL SIDE OF THE WESTERLY FLOW. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
BLUSTERY IS BEST WORDING TODAY. GUSTS COULD BE INTO THE 20S AREA
WIDE AND NEAR 30MPH IN THE LAURELS. THIS COMBINE WITH THE SNOW
THERE COULD LEAD TO VERY POOR DRIVING. BUT THE SNOW INTENSITY WILL
NOT BE TOO TERRIBLE UNTIL LATER TODAY. ABOUT 4-5F IS ALL WE WILL
BE ABLE TO ADD TO MAXES TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THRU THIS EVENING AND CARVES THE BASE OF
THE BIGGER TROUGH. THIS MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF BETTER
ORGANIZATION TO THE UPSLOPE SNOW AND PUSH SOME ACCUMULATION OVER
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL/RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.
BUT ACCUMS IN THAT AREA WOULD BE ONLY AN INCH OR SO. IT GETS
UNIFORMLY COLDER ALL UP/DOWN THE COLUMN TONIGHT AND THE SATURATED
DGZ IS PIERCED THRU BY THE BEST UPWARD FORCING/OMEGAS. THUS...IT
SHOULD BE PRETTY EASY TO GET A FLUFFY SNOW OUT OF THE ATMOS
TONIGHT. SLR/S COULD BE 25:1 OR 30:1. SO EVEN WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT
QPF IN THE MDLS...WE SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR HIGHER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TOTALS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN
THE N/W AND WIND CHILLS GO INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
OVERNIGHT/THURS MORNING.
AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST ON THURS...WE SHOULD IMPROVE
WITH SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF IN THE MORNING IN THE LAURELS. BUT
IT COULD TAKE ALL DAY FOR THEM TO LIFT OUT OF THE SNOW BELT. HAVE
EXTENDED THE TIME OF THE WINT WX ADVY FOR THE LAURELS INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY THURS TO MATCH TIMES WITH OUR LK EFF ADVY. MAXES
WILL BE ONLY 12-25F WHICH ARE ABOUT 15 TO 25 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE WITH ARCTIC
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY. FRIGID TEMPERATURES/DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.
POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE FIRST SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.
THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM AROUND 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ.
VALLEY TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.
A SLOW MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WITH A POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING/WAA TYPE SNOW EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z TAFS SENT.
EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS SHORTLY.
BULK OF THE SNOW NOW EAST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BFD AND JST WILL LIKELY HAVE MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO THU.
GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND THU.
FOR UNV...AND AOO...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO MAKE IT BACK
INTO THE AREA AT TIMES TODAY AND AFTER SUNSET...AS COLDER
AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...
THU...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.
FRI...MVFR IN -SHSN...MAINLY LATE WITH STRONG COLD FRONT.
SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR OTHERWISE. WINDY.
SUN...MVFR IN -SHSN IN W MTNS EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
507 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A CONSTANT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON AS WELL AS CREATE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELT AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT SNOW WINDING DOWN OVER YORK/LANCASTER COUNTIES. THE SNOW
OVER THE WEST IS STARTING TO FORM A COHERENT MASS BUT THIS MIGHT
NOT LAST LONG. THE VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER KBUF WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE TO THE EAST AND POSSIBLY DIMINISH THE SNOW THIS MORNING
BEFORE IT PICKS BACK UP AGAIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HRRR AND RAP
BOTH GENERATE AN E-W BAND OF SNOW ALONG AND JUST TO THE S OF RTE
6 THIS MORNING BUT IT BECOMES MIGRATORY THRU THE DAY. ONLY THE
LOWER SUSQ WILL HAVE A DECENT SHOT AT CLEARING OUT TODAY ON THE
DOWNHILL SIDE OF THE WESTERLY FLOW. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
BLUSTERY IS BEST WORDING TODAY. GUSTS COULD BE INTO THE 20S AREA
WIDE AND NEAR 30MPH IN THE LAURELS. THIS COMBINE WITH THE SNOW
THERE COULD LEAD TO VERY POOR DRIVING. BUT THE SNOW INTENSITY WILL
NOT BE TOO TERRIBLE UNTIL LATER TODAY. ABOUT 4-5F IS ALL WE WILL
BE ABLE TO ADD TO MAXES TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THRU THIS EVENING AND CARVES THE BASE OF
THE BIGGER TROUGH. THIS MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF BETTER
ORGANIZATION TO THE UPSLOPE SNOW AND PUSH SOME ACCUMULATION OVER
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL/RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.
BUT ACCUMS IN THAT AREA WOULD BE ONLY AN INCH OR SO. IT GETS
UNIFORMLY COLDER ALL UP/DOWN THE COLUMN TONIGHT AND THE SATURATED
DGZ IS PIERCED THRU BY THE BEST UPWARD FORCING/OMEGAS. THUS...IT
SHOULD BE PRETTY EASY TO GET A FLUFFY SNOW OUT OF THE ATMOS
TONIGHT. SLR/S COULD BE 25:1 OR 30:1. SO EVEN WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT
QPF IN THE MDLS...WE SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR HIGHER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TOTALS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN
THE N/W AND WIND CHILLS GO INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
OVERNIGHT/THURS MORNING.
AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST ON THURS...WE SHOULD IMPROVE
WITH SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF IN THE MORNING IN THE LAURELS. BUT
IT COULD TAKE ALL DAY FOR THEM TO LIFT OUT OF THE SNOW BELT. HAVE
EXTENDED THE TIME OF THE WINT WX ADVY FOR THE LAURELS INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY THURS TO MATCH TIMES WITH OUR LK EFF ADVY. MAXES
WILL BE ONLY 12-25F WHICH ARE ABOUT 15 TO 25 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE WITH ARCTIC
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY. FRIGID TEMPERATURES/DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.
POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE FIRST SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.
THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM AROUND 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ.
VALLEY TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.
A SLOW MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WITH A POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING/WAA TYPE SNOW EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS SHORTLY.
BULK OF THE SNOW NOW EAST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BFD AND JST WILL LIKELY HAVE MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO THU.
GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND THU.
FOR UNV...AND AOO...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO MAKE IT BACK
INTO THE AREA AT TIMES TODAY AND AFTER SUNSET...AS COLDER
AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...
THU...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.
FRI...MVFR IN -SHSN...MAINLY LATE WITH STRONG COLD FRONT.
SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR OTHERWISE. WINDY.
SUN...MVFR IN -SHSN IN W MTNS EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
443 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure will persist today, with dry and
mild conditions however there will be increased cloud cover compared
to the last couple days. A more progressive and unsettled pattern
will return later this week, bringing a chance of light rain
Thursday in the Cascades, then throughout the region Friday
into early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...The unusually strong ridge which has
blanketed the Inland Northwest for the past several days will
finally begin to weaken as minor upper level disturbances track
through the region. Looking at the latest satellite loops, the
first disturbance is currently tracking through the eastern third
of Washington right now, with another one moving into western
Washington. Based on GOES BUFR sounding and radar data, both are
rather minor features. The easternmost feature only contains high
clouds, while the western one is producing a few sprinkles near
the coast. This second feature is expected to move into the
Cascades later today and could produce some very light
precipitation mainly near the crest. Otherwise the main impact of
these systems will be an increased cloud trend compared to the
last couple days as well as slightly cooler temperatures.
Nonetheless, readings will still remain warmer than normal for
this time of year with highs generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s
for most valley locations. The exception once again will occur
over the far NW part of the forecast area, namely the Methow
Valley and Okanogan Valley and Highlands due to a very stubborn
cold pool near the ground. Looks like this could stick around
until we get a more robust front through the area, which won`t
likely be today. The other problem for today will be the potential
for fog. We suspect the coverage should be greater than we have
seen for the past couple days as the wind fields are generally
lighter with higher humidity levels. Hard to tell where most of it
will form, however the HRRR suggests most of it will occur over
the western Columbia Basin. This is not supported at this time by
the fog product but will bear watching. Meanwhile for the first
time this week, visibility restrictions were developing over parts
of the Spokane/CdA area and suspect the trend will be for
increasing fog. For tonight, the second front will receive a
little boost in strength as a shortwave trough currently around
127w moves inland. We don`t think this will produce much weather
other than a chance of light precipitation again near the
Cascades. The increased cloud cover should minimize the fog
potential overnight.
For Thursday and Thursday night...the ridge looks like it could
rebound again as pressure falls develop around 140w. The
interesting thing from this development is it takes the residual
moisture from tonight`s front and pivots it from a north-south
orientation to more of an east-west orientation as a warm front
pushes northward. The isentropic ascent from this front begins to
steepen and precipitation chances will increase steadily from
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Light to moderate
precipitation is expected to develop with a few locations near the
Cascades nearing up to half an inch. The remainder of the area
will see amounts generally ranging from .10-.25 inches. While most
of this will fall as rain with snow rising to 5500 feet near the
Canadian Border and to 7000 feet or higher south of I-90, there
is the possibility of a messy mix across the upper Methow Valley.
Model BUFR soundings are showing a temperature right around
freezing near the ground and extending up to nearly 5000 feet
through much of the event. Strangely the NAM BUFR is showing an
initial precip type of rain by midday Thursday followed by snow.
Given the warm air advection associated with the warm front and
little potential for wet bulb cooling, this seems unlikely.
However this will need to be watched especially if the
precipitation begins earlier and falls into an initially cooler
air mass. fx
Friday through Tuesday...An active weather pattern is expected
during the extended period. A cold front will track across the
Inland NW Friday into Friday night followed by cool and showery
weather on Saturday as the upper trough axis swings through. Snow
levels early on Friday start off at 6000-7000 feet before lowering
to 3000-4000 feet Saturday morning behind the cold front. Behind
the cold front mid level westerly flow will favor showers most
prevalent near the Cascade crest and Idaho Panhandle with snow
showers expected over the passes. Given the time of year (mid-
February) and its associated higher sun angle compared to late
December road temperatures may be too warm for significant travel
impacts over the passes but this will continue to be monitored.
Another warm front will pass through Sunday into Monday bringing
another round of precipitation with rising snow levels. Monday
has the potential to be very mild with the Inland NW in the warm
sector with breezy south- southwest winds as pressure gradients
tighten. The details differ after Monday with the timing of a cold
front with the ECMWF showing Monday night and GFS Tuesday night.
Given these uncertainties no changes were made to the Tuesday
forecast which favors the slower solution. This front may bring
in breezy to windy conditions once it passes. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Fog and stratus is much more prevalent this morning than
it`s been compared to the last few days. The latest fog product was
showing widespread stratus over most of the valleys of NE WA and N
ID. Confidence is high that this will bring IFR (or worse)
conditions to GEG and COE through at least 18z. Although there
wasn`t anything evident around SFF at 12z, it could easily spread
into there later this morning resulting in IFR conditions as well.
For now we will leave it out of the forecast as the steering flow is
quite weak. Patchy fog was also reported near EAT however the local
webcams suggest it is quite patchy and mainly located by the river.
Conditions there could vary rapidly. Also some stratus forming just
east of MWH and it could approach the airport later this
morning.Odds are not high however so we left it out of the forecast.
LWS and PUW will continue to see VFR conditions due to continued
east winds. We suspect most of the low clouds will clear between 18-
20z with VFR conditions for all sites after that. Forecast
confidence for the overnight hours is low. We should see high clouds
pass over the area as a weak front passes through the region,
however whether or not this will impede the reformation of stratus
or fog is questionable. We suspect it won`t and placed IFR/MVFR
conditions back into the forecast between 06-09z for most sites. fx
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 46 34 46 38 48 36 / 0 0 30 40 60 70
Coeur d`Alene 46 34 46 37 47 37 / 0 0 20 50 60 80
Pullman 51 39 51 40 52 38 / 0 0 10 20 50 60
Lewiston 55 40 56 42 57 42 / 0 0 0 10 40 50
Colville 42 32 41 35 42 36 / 0 10 50 70 60 70
Sandpoint 42 33 43 35 44 34 / 0 10 30 70 60 90
Kellogg 43 35 44 38 44 36 / 0 0 20 50 50 90
Moses Lake 47 34 47 38 48 37 / 0 0 30 30 50 40
Wenatchee 42 33 40 35 45 35 / 0 0 50 70 50 30
Omak 36 31 37 34 38 34 / 0 0 50 70 50 40
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for East Slopes
Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
247 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...MILD AIR MASS TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRI.
WEAK FRONTS OFFSHORE WILL BRUSH THE NW TODAY AND THU...WITH VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
ALONG THE COAST AND POSSIBLY INLAND. THAT CHANGES BY FRI...AS FIRST
IN A SERIES OF FRONTS PUSH INTO THE PAC NW. SHOWERY ON SATURDAY...BUT
MORE RAIN ARRIVES ON SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY AND THU.
THAT MEANS MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD OVER THE REGION. AT
SAME TIME...SEVERAL WEAKENING FRONTS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
WHILE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...WILL SEE
CONSIDERABLY MORE IN WAY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
THU.
REMAINS OF THE FIRST FRONT SITS JUST OFFSHORE THIS AM...AND WILL MOVE
INLAND TODAY. NOT MUCH IN WAY OF RAIN...BUT SHOULD SEE SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN ON THE COAST WITH ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. FURTHER
INLAND...SHOULD JUST SEE OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES OR POSSIBLY A BRIEF
LIGHT SHOWER. OVERALL...DRY INLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT THIS WEAK BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK TO THE N AS A WARM
FRONT ON THU. AGAIN...NOT A LOT OF PRECIPITATION BUT ENOUGH FOR
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND INTO SW WASHINGTON.
WITH LACK OF ANY AIR MASS CHANGE...AND WEAK WINDS OVER REGION... THE
MILD TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE. NORMALS HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF FEB
ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S. SO...WILL KEEP FORECAST HIGHS FOR
NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
FOR PAST MANY DAYS...MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING FIRST DECENT SHOT OF
RAIN WOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION ON FRI AS A MODERATELY STRONG COLD
FRONT ARRIVES. NO CHANGES TO THAT THOUGHT TRAIN. WILL KEEP RAIN IN
FORECAST ON FRI...WITH 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OVER COAST RANGE AND S WASH
CASCADES...WITH 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH ELSEWHERE. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN
ABOVE 8000 FT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON...THEN WILL LOWER TO 3500 TO 4000
FT BY LATE FRI NIGHT. ROCKEY.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
COOLER ON SATURDAY...WITH SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. SNOW LEVELS
SITTING AROUND 3500 TO 4000 FEET ON SAT...WITH SOME NEW SNOW EXPECTED
OVER THE CASCADES. NOT A LOT...BUT COULD SEE 3 TO 8 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW AT THE PASSES AND ABOVE. RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE
PAC...WITH ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVING ON SUN. HAVE INCREASES PROB OF RAIN
ON SUNDAY. BRIEF BREAK ON MON...BUT LOOKS WET AFTERWARDS AS YET
ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES ON TUE. REST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS RATHER CLOUDY
AND WET...WITH SNOW LEVELS BOUNCING FROM 3500 TO 5500 FT. ROCKEY.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR MOST AREAS ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG UNDER THE HIGH OVERCAST. AT THIS TIME...NOTHING IS AT
THE TAF TERMINALS AND KUAO IS THE ONLY SITE SHOWING ANY VISIBILITY
REDUCTION. KEUG BRIEFLY FOGGED IN EARLIER BUT INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE SCOURED IT OUT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDS THROUGH 11/12Z. A WEAK FRONT BRUSHES THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAY BRING HIGHER END MVFR CIGS TO THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. NOT MUCH IMPACT EXPECTED INLAND ASIDE FROM VERY LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE 16Z-03Z AS CONDS LIKELY REMAIN VFR.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR NEXT 24 HRS. MAY GET SOME PERIODS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATION OVER THE CASCADES AS WEAK RAIN BANDS
CROSS THE AREA 20Z-03Z. /JBONK
&&
.MARINE...A DECAYING FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TODAY ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL WITH REGARD TO THE WIND STRENGTH. WIND
SPEEDS ARE CURRENTLY BEING OVERDONE BY MODELS BY A FEW KTS. ALSO
SHORTENED THE TIME OF THE SCA FOR WINDS BY SEVERAL HOURS BUT EVEN
WITH THE WEAKER WINDS, IT APPEARS THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH WIND
TO JUSTIFY THE SCA FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF FREQUENT 21-25 KT
GUSTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA DURING THE INITIAL EVENT
BUT BECOME SOMEWHAT STEEP REACHING 7-9 FT AT 11-13 SEC.
THE LARGE AND COMPLEX PARENT LOW CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
WELL OFFSHORE WILL SWING THE NEXT FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS
THURSDAY AND ANOTHER ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THE THURSDAY SYSTEM
IS TRENDING WEAKER OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS BUT DOES STILL APPEAR TO
BE STRONGER THEN THE IMPENDING QUESTIONABLE FRONT. SUNDAY`S WOULD
BE THE STRONGEST ASSUMING MODELS SETTLE IN ON A COMMON SOLUTION.
REGARDLESS...THE SET OF EMBEDDED LOWS INSIDE THE PARENT LOW IS
GENERATING NUMEROUS SETS OF SWELL TRAINS. THE LEADING EDGE OF
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL REACH THE OUTER WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL POSSIBLY STAY 10-15 FEET AND BECOME CONFUSED AT
TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. DECIDED TO ONLY ISSUE A SCA FOR
SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY DAYLIGHT WITH CONFIDENCE BECOMING LIMITED
THEREAFTER GIVEN THE TIME RANGE. /JBONK
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR T0DAY ON ALL WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON ALL WATERS
TODAY THROUGH FRI.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
303 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will persist into Wednesday, with dry and
mild conditions. A more progressive and unsettled pattern will
return late this week, bringing a chance of light rain Thursday in
the Cascades, then throughout the region Friday into the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...The unusually strong ridge which has
blanketed the Inland Northwest for the past several days will
finally begin to weaken as minor upper level disturbances track
through the region. Looking at the latest satellite loops, the
first disturbance is currently tracking through the eastern third
of Washington right now, with another one moving into western
Washington. Based on GOES BUFR sounding and radar data, both are
rather minor features. The easternmost feature only contains high
clouds, while the western one is producing a few sprinkles near
the coast. This second feature is expected to move into the
Cascades later today and could produce some very light
precipitation mainly near the crest. Otherwise the main impact of
these systems will be an increased cloud trend compared to the
last couple days as well as slightly cooler temperatures.
Nonetheless, readings will still remain warmer than normal for
this time of year with highs generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s
for most valley locations. The exception once again will occur
over the far NW part of the forecast area, namely the Methow
Valley and Okanogan Valley and Highlands due to a very stubborn
cold pool near the ground. Looks like this could stick around
until we get a more robust front through the area, which won`t
likely be today. The other problem for today will be the potential
for fog. We suspect the coverage should be greater than we have
seen for the past couple days as the wind fields are generally
lighter with higher humidity levels. Hard to tell where most of it
will form, however the HRRR suggests most of it will occur over
the western Columbia Basin. This is not supported at this time by
the fog product but will bear watching. Meanwhile for the first
time this week, visibility restrictions were developing over parts
of the Spokane/CdA area and suspect the trend will be for
increasing fog. For tonight, the second front will receive a
little boost in strength as a shortwave trough currently around
127w moves inland. We don`t think this will produce much weather
other than a chance of light precipitation again near the
Cascades. The increased cloud cover should minimize the fog
potential overnight.
For Thursday and Thursday night...the ridge looks like it could
rebound again as pressure falls develop around 140w. The
interesting thing from this development is it takes the residual
moisture from tonight`s front and pivots it from a north-south
orientation to more of an east-west orientation as a warm front
pushes northward. The isentropic ascent from this front begins to
steepen and precipitation chances will increase steadily from
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Light to moderate
precipitation is expected to develop with a few locations near the
Cascades nearing up to half an inch. The remainder of the area
will see amounts generally ranging from .10-.25 inches. While most
of this will fall as rain with snow rising to 5500 feet near the
Canadian Border and to 7000 feet or higher south of I-90, there
is the possibility of a messy mix across the upper Methow Valley.
Model BUFR soundings are showing a temperature right around
freezing near the ground and extending up to nearly 5000 feet
through much of the event. Strangely the NAM BUFR is showing an
initial precip type of rain by midday Thursday followed by snow.
Given the warm air advection associated with the warm front and
little potential for wet bulb cooling, this seems unlikely.
However this will need to be watched especially if the
precipitation begins earlier and falls into an initially cooler
air mass. fx
Friday through Tuesday...An active weather pattern is expected
during the extended period. A cold front will track across the
Inland NW Friday into Friday night followed by cool and showery
weather on Saturday as the upper trough axis swings through. Snow
levels early on Friday start off at 6000-7000 feet before lowering
to 3000-4000 feet Saturday morning behind the cold front. Behind
the cold front mid level westerly flow will favor showers most
prevalent near the Cascade crest and Idaho Panhandle with snow
showers expected over the passes. Given the time of year (mid-
February) and its associated higher sun angle compared to late
December road temperatures may be too warm for significant travel
impacts over the passes but this will continue to be monitored.
Another warm front will pass through Sunday into Monday bringing
another round of precipitation with rising snow levels. Monday
has the potential to be very mild with the Inland NW in the warm
sector with breezy south- southwest winds as pressure gradients
tighten. The details differ after Monday with the timing of a cold
front with the ECMWF showing Monday night and GFS Tuesday night.
Given these uncertainties no changes were made to the Tuesday
forecast which favors the slower solution. This front may bring
in breezy to windy conditions once it passes. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Fog and stratus was observed for most of the mountain
valleys this morning and along the Spokane/Columbia
rivers...closer to water sources. The inversion will remain strong
again tonight and fog/stratus will likely form in those areas
again tonight. However the strong ridge of high pressure that has
been over the region will shift east and bend slightly overnight.
This will allow upper level clouds to move into the region
overnight as well...and this may mitigate somewhat the strong
radiational cooling. In addition the surface flow will gradually
come around to southerly through the evening and this should pile
up the moisture for the northern valleys. With the exception of
the eastern basin and the Palouse at least some fog and stratus
will be possible for the TAF sites. So KLWS/KPUW can expect VFR
conditions through 00z. At the other TAF sites current VFR
conditions will likely drop down to MVFR cigs/vsby between 12-18z
then bounce back to VFR with a thickening but high cloud deck.
Tobin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 46 34 46 38 48 36 / 0 0 30 40 60 70
Coeur d`Alene 46 34 46 37 47 37 / 0 0 20 50 60 80
Pullman 51 39 51 40 52 38 / 0 0 10 20 50 60
Lewiston 55 40 56 42 57 42 / 0 0 0 10 40 50
Colville 42 32 41 35 42 36 / 0 10 50 70 60 70
Sandpoint 42 33 43 35 44 34 / 0 10 30 70 60 90
Kellogg 43 35 44 38 44 36 / 0 0 20 50 50 90
Moses Lake 47 34 47 38 48 37 / 0 0 30 30 50 40
Wenatchee 42 33 40 35 45 35 / 0 0 50 70 50 30
Omak 36 31 37 34 38 34 / 0 0 50 70 50 40
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for East Slopes
Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1115 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER WEAK LOW PRESSURE TODAY. THIS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY BUT UP TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDY
WEATHER LINGERS TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET
TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF
BREAK IN STORE FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN
FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1055 AM...THIS UPDATE BACKS OFF QPF AND SUBSEQUENT SNOW AMOUNT A
LITTLE BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND ADJUSTS POPS A BIT FOR THE REST
OF TODAY BASED ON CURRENT OB. SNOW IS LIGHT AND RADAR NOT DOING A
GOOD JOB OF PICKING UP THIS MORNING...BUT IT CONTINUES TO SNOW
ACROSS SRN AND CENTRAL NH...ALBEIT VERY LIGHTLY. EXPECTING THIS
SNOW ILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING...AND
MAY SEE ACCUMS UP TO AN INCH...ESPECIALLY AS YOU HEAD INTO THE
LAKES REGION AND THE WHITE MTNS. MESO MODELS DO BACK OFF THE
POPS/QPF FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS WEAK WAVE ALOFT MOVES INTO
MAINE...BUT SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SHN...IF A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW HERE BY MI-LATE AFTERNOON.
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES FOR POP AND TEMPS AS SNWFL EDGES CLOSER TO
THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW POCKETS OF SN SHOWERS HAVE INTERMITTENTLY
CROSSED PARTS OF NH SO FAR...BUT ABOUT AN HOUR OR SO TO THE W THE
MORE CONCENTRATED LIFT IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF LIGHT SN THRU THE
HUDSON VALLEY. THAT WILL OVERSPREAD SWRN NH THRU THE SEACOAST THRU
MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NEW ENGLAND REMAINS ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE
OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING UPPER TROF. THIS FAVORABLY PLACES THE AREA
ON THE WAA SIDE...AND COUPLED WITH ANY S/WV TROF ROTATING THRU THE
LARGER FLOW...WX WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED.
ONE SUCH STRONGER S/WV TROF WILL MOVE THRU THE ERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE SLY FLOW INTO THE AREA...AND DEVELOP A
WEAK SFC TROF IN THE REGION. THIS PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR SN SHOWERS
THRU TODAY. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS NH
FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY. REGIONAL RADAR STARTING TO SHOW
ECHOES DEVELOPING TO THE SW...LENDING SOME CREDIBILITY TO THOSE
SOLUTIONS. QPF WILL BE LIGHT...BUT AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
IS POSSIBLE THRU NOON FOR NH. ACTIVITY SHIFTS EWD IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SN SHOWERS SHIFTS TO COASTAL
WRN ME. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WRN ZONES AGAIN LATER
TODAY...AS LATEST HRRR RUNS DEVELOP BANDS OF SN SHOWERS THAT MOVE
OFF THE GREAT LAKES AS CAA PICKS UP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
FEEL THAT WE TAKE A BRIEF BREAK TONIGHT WITH THE PRECIP.
HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT
ALOFT...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SN SHOWER. POP GENERALLY STAYS
AROUND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE AREA. ALSO EXPECT TO SEE SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO TONIGHT. WITH GENERAL CLOUD COVER...BUT SOME BREAKS
DEVELOPING. THOSE AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO QUICKLY COOL OFF...BUT
TOUGH TO IDENTIFY OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE.
UPPER TROF AXIS IS SET TO CROSS THE AREA THU. EXPECT MORE SN
SHOWERS TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. LATE IN THE DAY STRONG CAA
LOOKS LIKELY. IN ADDITION TO FALLING TEMPS...WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
NIGHT BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET AFTER
MIDNIGHT BOTTOMING OUT AT 5 BELOW TO NEAR ZERO NORTH AND RANGING
THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS SOUTH.
NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST
ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL AVERAGE OUTWELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH READINGS ONLY REACHING 5 TO 15 NORTH AND MID TEENS TO
MID 20S SOUTH.
WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT
DRIVING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS OVERNIGHT WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP TO 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE NORTH AND 5 TO 10
DEGREES SOUTH.
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KICK IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON.
DEEP UPPER LOW SETTLING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN UPSLOPE
AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH.
UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT BUT INTENSE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SHOULD SEE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DESPITE THE WINDS EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO DIP TO 10 TO 15 BELOW NORTH
AND 5 TO 10 BELOW SOUTH. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE STRONG
WINDS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY EXCEED WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS A GOOD PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. LOOKING FOR A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IN
THE SOUTH WITH MOUNTAIN CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND LOWER TO MID TEENS SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD SEE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS OF 5 TO 10 BELOW NORTH AND 5 BELOW
TO 5 ABOVE SOUTH.
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK
ON MONDAY AS A BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING PUSHES IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS
WILL LOWER AND THICKEN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS PUSH IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS BY
LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY EVENING...BUT NOT LOOKING LIKE A
BIG DEAL AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM MAY BE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE
HITS THE EAST COAST AND SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW BUT MODELS SHOWING
SOME BIG DIFFS IN TRACK AND TIMING WITH THIS FEATURE.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN CONTROL OF A BROAD UPPER
TROF. THIS IS KEEPING THE WX A LITTLE UNSETTLED...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THRU THU. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE SLOWLY MOVING
INTO AND THRU THE AREA...AND WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS NH THE
FIRST PART OF TODAY. WRN ME WILL SEE MVFR CIGS ADVANCE INTO THOSE
ZONES BY THE AFTERNOON. WITHIN THE SFC TROF...SNWFL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH AREAS OF IFR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACTLY WHERE
AND HOW LONG IFR CONDITIONS LAST...BUT AGAIN MOST LIKELY AREAS ARE
ACROSS NH TERMINALS. TROF AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THU...WITH SHSN
LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN.
LONG TERM...AREAS MVFR CEILINGS THURSDAY EVENING...BECOMING VFR.
VFR FRIDAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
VFR ON SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH SEAS ARE GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO LONG PERIOD
SWELL. WITH SOME WAVE HEIGHTS STILL OVER 7 FT...WILL CONTINUE THE
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THRU MORNING. AS COLD FNT CROSSES THE
WATERS LATE THU...A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS IS
POSSIBLE. RIGHT NOW MOST LIKELY AREAS ARE S OF CAPE
ELIZABETH...AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.
LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.COASTAL FLOODING...
VERY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR NEAR THE NOONTIME HIGH TIDE.
AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS LOW END EVENT.
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MEZ023-024.
NH...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR ANZ154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1108 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER WEAK LOW PRESSURE TODAY. THIS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY BUT UP TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDY
WEATHER LINGERS TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET
TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF
BREAK IN STORE FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN
FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1055 AM...THIS UPDATE BACKS OFF QPF AND SUBSEQUENT SNOW AMOUNT A
LITTLE BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND ADJUSTS POPS A BIT FOR THE REST
OF TODAY BASED ON CURRENT OB. SNOW IS LIGHT AND RADAR NOT DOING A
GOOD JOB OF PICKING UP THIS MORNING...BUT IT CONTINUES TO SNOW
ACROSS SRN AND CENTRAL NH...ALBEIT VERY LIGHTLY. EXPECTING THIS
SNOW ILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING...AND
MAY SEE ACCUMS UP TO AN INCH...ESPECIALLY AS YOU HEAD INTO THE
LAKES REGION AND THE WHITE MTNS. MESO MODELS DO BACK OFF THE
POPS/QPF FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS WEAK WAVE ALOFT MOVES INTO
MAINE...BUT SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SHN...IF A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW HERE BY MI-LATE AFTERNOON.
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES FOR POP AND TEMPS AS SNWFL EDGES CLOSER TO
THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW POCKETS OF SN SHOWERS HAVE INTERMITTENTLY
CROSSED PARTS OF NH SO FAR...BUT ABOUT AN HOUR OR SO TO THE W THE
MORE CONCENTRATED LIFT IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF LIGHT SN THRU THE
HUDSON VALLEY. THAT WILL OVERSPREAD SWRN NH THRU THE SEACOAST THRU
MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NEW ENGLAND REMAINS ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE
OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING UPPER TROF. THIS FAVORABLY PLACES THE AREA
ON THE WAA SIDE...AND COUPLED WITH ANY S/WV TROF ROTATING THRU THE
LARGER FLOW...WX WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED.
ONE SUCH STRONGER S/WV TROF WILL MOVE THRU THE ERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE SLY FLOW INTO THE AREA...AND DEVELOP A
WEAK SFC TROF IN THE REGION. THIS PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR SN SHOWERS
THRU TODAY. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS NH
FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY. REGIONAL RADAR STARTING TO SHOW
ECHOES DEVELOPING TO THE SW...LENDING SOME CREDIBILITY TO THOSE
SOLUTIONS. QPF WILL BE LIGHT...BUT AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
IS POSSIBLE THRU NOON FOR NH. ACTIVITY SHIFTS EWD IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SN SHOWERS SHIFTS TO COASTAL
WRN ME. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WRN ZONES AGAIN LATER
TODAY...AS LATEST HRRR RUNS DEVELOP BANDS OF SN SHOWERS THAT MOVE
OFF THE GREAT LAKES AS CAA PICKS UP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
FEEL THAT WE TAKE A BRIEF BREAK TONIGHT WITH THE PRECIP.
HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT
ALOFT...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SN SHOWER. POP GENERALLY STAYS
AROUND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE AREA. ALSO EXPECT TO SEE SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO TONIGHT. WITH GENERAL CLOUD COVER...BUT SOME BREAKS
DEVELOPING. THOSE AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO QUICKLY COOL OFF...BUT
TOUGH TO IDENTIFY OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE.
UPPER TROF AXIS IS SET TO CROSS THE AREA THU. EXPECT MORE SN
SHOWERS TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. LATE IN THE DAY STRONG CAA
LOOKS LIKELY. IN ADDITION TO FALLING TEMPS...WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
NIGHT BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET AFTER
MIDNIGHT BOTTOMING OUT AT 5 BELOW TO NEAR ZERO NORTH AND RANGING
THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS SOUTH.
NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST
ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL AVERAGE OUTWELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH READINGS ONLY REACHING 5 TO 15 NORTH AND MID TEENS TO
MID 20S SOUTH.
WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT
DRIVING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS OVERNIGHT WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP TO 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE NORTH AND 5 TO 10
DEGREES SOUTH.
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KICK IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON.
DEEP UPPER LOW SETTLING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN UPSLOPE
AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH.
UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT BUT INTENSE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SHOULD SEE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DESPITE THE WINDS EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO DIP TO 10 TO 15 BELOW NORTH
AND 5 TO 10 BELOW SOUTH. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE STRONG
WINDS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY EXCEED WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS A GOOD PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. LOOKING FOR A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IN
THE SOUTH WITH MOUNTAIN CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS
NORTH AND LOWER TO MID TEENS SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD SEE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS OF 5 TO 10 BELOW NORTH AND 5 BELOW
TO 5 ABOVE SOUTH.
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK
ON MONDAY AS A BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING PUSHES IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS
WILL LOWER AND THICKEN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS PUSH IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS BY
LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY EVENING...BUT NOT LOOKING LIKE A
BIG DEAL AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM MAY BE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE
HITS THE EAST COAST AND SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW BUT MODELS SHOWING
SOME BIG DIFFS IN TRACK AND TIMING WITH THIS FEATURE.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN CONTROL OF A BROAD UPPER
TROF. THIS IS KEEPING THE WX A LITTLE UNSETTLED...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THRU THU. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE SLOWLY MOVING
INTO AND THRU THE AREA...AND WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS NH THE
FIRST PART OF TODAY. WRN ME WILL SEE MVFR CIGS ADVANCE INTO THOSE
ZONES BY THE AFTERNOON. WITHIN THE SFC TROF...SNWFL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH AREAS OF IFR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACTLY WHERE
AND HOW LONG IFR CONDITIONS LAST...BUT AGAIN MOST LIKELY AREAS ARE
ACROSS NH TERMINALS. TROF AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THU...WITH SHSN
LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN.
LONG TERM...AREAS MVFR CEILINGS THURSDAY EVENING...BECOMING VFR.
VFR FRIDAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
VFR ON SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH SEAS ARE GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO LONG PERIOD
SWELL. WITH SOME WAVE HEIGHTS STILL OVER 7 FT...WILL CONTINUE THE
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THRU MORNING. AS COLD FNT CROSSES THE
WATERS LATE THU...A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS IS
POSSIBLE. RIGHT NOW MOST LIKELY AREAS ARE S OF CAPE
ELIZABETH...AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.
LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS
MORNING FOR ANZ150-152-154.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR ANZ154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA/LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...SINSABAUGH
AVIATION...LEGRO/SINSABAUGH
MARINE...LEGRO/SINSABAUGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
332 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016
.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016
HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND COLD.
NORTHERN MI REMAINS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN NEW ENGLAND...AND HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING SE-WARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA. TROFFING REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE LAKES REGION...PRODUCED IN PART BY THE GREAT
LAKES THEMSELVES. A SLIGHT TENDENCY FOR THIS TROFFING TO RELAX
TONIGHT AS RIDGING TO OUR WEST BECOMES STRONGER. THAT WILL BACK
1000-850MB WINDS EVER SO SLIGHTLY...TO A BORDERLINE NW/NNW BY
MIDNIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES IN NW LOWER...AND VERY SMALL
PORTIONS OF NE LOWER (ROGERS TO APN) AND EASTERN UPPER (FAR
WESTERN MACK). ONGOING ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT
DISRUPTED BY DIURNAL HEATING (SUCH AS IT IS). SNOW TRENDS ARE THE
MAIN CONCERN.
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING SHOW ALLOW FOR SOME REORGANIZATION
TOWARD LATE EVENING...THOUGH A CONTINUED DEEPLY DRY AIRMASS WILL
KEEP THINGS FROM GETTING INSANELY OUT OF LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN LINES
UP NICELY WITH RECENT RADAR/OB TRENDS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING. IN PARTICULAR...DOMINANT BANDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO SET
UP EITHER SIDE OF TVC. LOCALIZED 4-6 INCH ACCUMS AGAIN LIKELY...
PERHAPS EVEN HIGHER. PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES RELAX A BIT TONIGHT.
COMBINED WITH LOSS OF HEATING/MIXING...WINDS EVERYWHERE BUT
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WILL TREND DOWNWARD. SO WILL SEE LESS
IN THE WAY OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.
WITH THE ABOVE TRENDS...HEALTHY SNOW AMOUNTS BUT LESS WIND/BLSN...
WILL REPLACE THE ONGOING WARNINGS WITH ADVISORIES. THE CURRENT
ADVISORY COUNTIES WILL REMAIN AS SUCH. ALL ADVISORIES WILL RUN THRU
NOON THURSDAY.
ELSEWHERE...SHSN WILL CONTINUE TO PESTER ROGERS CITY/APN AREA...WITH
1-3 INCH ACCUMS THERE. THE SLIGHT BACKING TO THE WINDS WILL PUSH
SHSN INTO FAR WESTERN CHIP AS WELL AS MACK...WITH 1-3 INCH ACCUMS
ALSO REASONABLE THERE. OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELTS...CURRENT CLOUD
COVER HAS A STRONG DIURNAL COMPONENT...AND ANTICIPATE AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING JUST EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR IN BOTH PENINSULAS.
MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10F IN NW LOWER NEAR LAKE
MI...TO NEARLY -10F AT THE SAULT. HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS
WHERE PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: FULL-LATITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH DOMINATES
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND UP INTO ALASKA OPENING THE DOOR FOR ARCTIC AIR TO PLUNGE
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. PATTERN BREAKS NEXT WEEK WITH RISING
HEIGHTS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW ALONG THE NEXT COLD FRONT FRIDAY WITH
MORE SNOW SHOWERS/BLOWING SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW WIND CHILLS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THURSDAY...THERMAL TROUGH BE EAST OF MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY
MORNING...AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WEAKENS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL DECREASE AS MORE SUBSIDENCE WORKS
INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. SNOW SHOWERS TO START THE DAY WEST OF I-75
AND POSSIBLY FAR NORTHEAST LOWER /PRESQUE ISLE-ALPENA/. WINDS
GRADUALLY BACK THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH THE CHANGING WIND DIRECTION
LIKELY FANNING OUT THE SNOW SHOWERS AND ALSO BRINGING THEM EASTWARD
TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR. WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS MOVE BACK INTO CHIPPEWA COUNTY AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE
WESTERLY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY LAKE VORTEX DEVELOPMENT GIVEN
THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...WHICH COULD DISRUPT THE BANDING.
A FEW ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS.
LOW LEVEL WINDS NEARLY DUE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL DICTATE
THE ORIENTATION OF THE SNOW BANDS...FOCUSING ON THE M-32 CORRIDOR.
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS FRIDAY. CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY RAISES
SOME CONCERNS ABOUT SNOWFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CHIPPEWA
COUNTY AS ADDED LOW LEVEL FORCING PUSHES INVERSION HEIGHTS BACK UP
TOWARD 700MB. THIS COULD RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY IF THIS BAND IS PERSISTENT OVER A SEVERAL
HOUR PERIOD.
FRIDAY...OUR SECONDARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE WINTER. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW WITH
THIS BOUNDARY AS IT SAGS SOUTHWARD....WITH A NICE AXIS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL DIV-Q. IF THE BAND REMAINS TRANSITORY...THEN
GENERALLY AN INCH OR TWO SNOW FOR MOST AREAS LOOKS GOOD...WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLY BOOSTING TOTALS IN
SOME AREAS. THIS BURST OF SNOW COULD HAVE SOME TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS
/ALBEIT BRIEFLY/ AND IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. BEHIND THE
FRONT...EXPECT NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT TO SET UP AS THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE EVENT ADVECTS ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES /850MB
TEMPERATURES BELOW -25C BY FRIDAY EVENING/. TEMPERATURES LIKELY
FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH A BRISK
NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND DEVELOPING...ANTICIPATING WIND CHILLS TO FALL
BELOW ZERO DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO A 330-
340 DEGREE ORIENTATION. SET UP SEEMS FAVORABLE FOR A DOMINANT TWO-
LAKE BAND /SIMILAR TO OUR CURRENT SET-UP OF LAKE EFFECT/ THAT
IMPACTS AN AREA ALONG/WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR. BUT BY THIS TIME
850MB TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -25C WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON SNOWFLAKE
GROWTH PROCESSES RESULTING IN MUCH SMALLER FLAKE SIZES THAT WILL NOT
ACCUMULATE AS MUCH. SMALL FLAKES ARE ALSO MORE LIKELY TO BLOW AROUND
WITH GUSTY WINDS...WHICH CAN CREATE SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY ISSUES.
SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BELOW ZERO IN MANY AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT /OUTSIDE OF COASTAL
AREAS/...WITH READINGS OF -20 DEGF POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT SEE SOME
CLEARING.
SATURDAY...ONE WORD TO DESCRIBE TEMPERATURES...BRUTAL. COLDEST AIR
OF THE WINTER IMPACTING MICHIGAN WITH ARCTIC HIGH GRADUALLY BUILDING
INTO THE REGION. SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS IN MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH A FEW
LOCATIONS MAY NOT REACH ZERO. WIND CHILL READINGS OF -15 TO -25
DEGREES DURING THE MORNING...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY PUT US CLOSE TO
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING IN NORTHWEST
FLOW AREAS...WITH VERY SMALL FLAKE SIZE BUT POTENTIALLY POOR
VISIBILITY IN SOME LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016
THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN CONSENSUS OF SEVERAL AREAS OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A COUPLE SURFACE LOWS PRODUCING CHANCES OF
SNOW THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
HAVING THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD WARM ADVECTION SNOW ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MAY ALSO SEE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ON THE STRONG SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM ALONG THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINES...ESPECIALLY THE US-2 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN
UPPER. THE WINDS VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SYSTEM BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER AIR AND A NARROW RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL VERY LIKELY AT LEAST CREATE
LAKE CLOUDS...IF NOT SQUEEZE SOME LIGHT SNOW OUT AT TIMES TUESDAY.
MODELS THEN HINT AT ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MID-WEEK.
LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL DROP TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO WITH
WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH
INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO SUNDAY AND MODERATE TO THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016
HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS AT TVC. MAINLY MVFR ELSEWHERE.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW/CLOUDS CONTINUE...AS COLD AIR ENTERS THE REGION
FROM THE NNW. ONGOING WIND DIRECTIONS TARGETS MAINLY TVC...TO A
LESSER DEGREE MBL/APN...AND PLN NOT AT ALL. MVFR TO VFR CIGS WILL
BE COMMON OUTSIDE OF SHSN. INSIDE OF SHSN...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
NW WINDS (GUSTING TO 20-25KT) WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016
NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES
FROM CENTRAL CANADA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE SET TO EXPIRE
EARLY THU MORNING...AND THAT HOLD FOR A LITTLE WHILE. HOWEVER...W
TO NW WINDS WILL INCREASE THU NIGHT...AND ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES
COULD WELL BE NEEDED THEN.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ019>021-
025>027-031>033.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1257 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES WITH UP
TO AN ADDITIONAL SIX INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH MID DAY THURSDAY. MOST
AREAS WILL SEE A LULL IN THE SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE BY FRIDAY BRINGING MORE SNOW. HOWEVER AT
THIS POINT IT APPEARS THIS SNOW WILL BE LIGHTER. IT WILL REMAIN
COLD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.
THE WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN COLD...THEN WE SEE A SLIGHTLY WARM UP FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW SHOULD MOVE IN FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016
THE UPDATED ZONE FORECAST AND WINTER STORM WARNING FOR KALAMAZOO
COUNTY HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 922 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016
I WILL VERY SHORTLY PUT KALAMAZOO COUNTY IN A WINTER STORM
WARNING SINCE WE HAVE HAD A REPORT OF 9 INCHES IN ALAMO IN
NORTHWEST KALAMAZOO COUNTY. RADAR DATA (STORM TOTAL SNOW DEPTH
FROM 88D) SHOWS THAT SNOW BAND EXTENDED FROM PORT SHELDON THROUGH
HOLLAND...TO JUST WEST OF THE CITY OF ALLEGAN THROUGH ALAMO. THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP MODEL SUGGEST THE SNOW BANDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT WESTERN KALAMAZOO COUNTY THE REST OF THE DAY.
BASED ON THAT...IT MAKES SENSE TO ADD THEM TO THE WARNING...SO I
WILL AND I WILL RUN THE WARNING TO MATCH THE OTHERS... 10 AM
THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016
WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH THE HEADLINES.
INVERSION LEVELS DROP A BIT TODAY AS LAST NIGHTS SHORT WAVE MOVES
EAST. HOWEVER EVEN AT 7K FEET THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
HEALTHY LAKE EFFECT BANDS. OVERALL EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN AND INTENSITY OF THE SNOW TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THE FLOW
REMAINS 330-335 THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SO THE HEAVIER BANDS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
LAKESHORE COUNTIES...AND ALL OF VAN BUREN COUNTY. SOME AREAS MAY
PICK AN ADDITIONAL SIX INCHES OF SNOW...AND LOCALLY MORE. WINDS
WILL ALSO REMAIN A FACTOR...CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING FOR MUCH OF
TODAY. MEANWHILE INLAND AREAS WILL ONLY SEE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW
WITH ACCUMS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.
EXPECT THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ITS POSSIBLE WE MAY BE ABLE TO
CANCEL THE HEADLINES AND BIT EARLY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS.
THE INVERSION LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 4K FEET FOR A BIT THURSDAY
NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING THE SNOW WILL COMPLETE END...BUT THE INTENSITY
WILL DROP OFF.
THE LAKE EFFECT WILL PERK UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER
MOVING IN. HOWEVER THE INVERSION LEVELS SEEM TO ONLY BUMP UP A
BIT...SO EXPECTING MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW. GENERALLY TWO INCHES OR LESS
FROM THIS SYSTEM FOR THE LAKESHORE AND LESS THAN AN INCH INLAND.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016
PATTERN STARTS OUT QUITE AMPLIFIED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. VERY COLD AIR WILL
BE PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITHIN THIS TROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE STILL FORECAST TO HIT
-26C TO -27C AT 700AM SAT. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO F. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT GIVEN THE VERY COLD
AIR AND NORTHERLY FLOW...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION OR
IMPACT.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AND COLD WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE DIFFICULT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE FLOW BECOMES ONE OF A FAST ZONAL NATURE.
TIMING SHORTWAVE/S IN A ZONAL FLOW AT DAY 5 AND 6 IS A TOUGH CALL.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH OUR AREA
THOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE CHANCE POPS 30-
50 PCT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE SURFACE FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ARE WEAK WITH THE ECMWF. THE SYSTEM IS A BIT MORE
DEVELOPED IN THE GFS. AT THIS POINT...SIDING WITH THE WEAKER ECMWF
AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. TUESDAY ANOTHER
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE OUT AT DAY 7 IN A ZONAL
REGIME. HAVE SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.
AFTER A COLD WEEKEND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016
MOST TERMINALS ARE SEEING PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME
SPOTTY IFR WITH CLOUDS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. KMKG AND KAZO ARE SEEING MORE PREVAILING IFR-LIFR IN
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES. WE EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME THROUGH
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT MORE NNW THIS EVENING AND DIMINISH A
BIT...WHICH SHOULD TAKE THE LOWER CONDITIONS CLOSER TO THE
LAKESHORE. WE EXPECT INLAND LOCATIONS MAY GO TO VFR WITH SOME
CLEARING EVEN POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE FROM A MORE WRLY DIRECTION ON THU WHICH
SHOULD DRIVE SNOW SHOWERS INLAND ONCE AGAIN. THE SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD NOT BE AS INTENSE AS TODAY...BUT WILL DROP CONDITIONS TO
MVFR WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016
WE HAVE ENDED THE GALE WARNING AND REPLACED IT WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016
DOWNWARD TRENDS CONTINUE ON THE MAPLE RIVER WITH MINIMAL CONCERNS
FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS ACCOUNT FOR LESS
THAN THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND LESS THAN
HALF AN INCH INLAND. THIS TRANSLATES TO LITTLE OR NO CONCERN WITH
PRECIPITATION TYPE MOSTLY CONSISTING OF SNOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL BELOW FREEZING TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY REACHING FREEZING BY NEXT TUESDAY. ICE MAY
BEGIN TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS OVERNIGHT LOWS
BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THESE TEMPERATURES DO NOT LAST
VERY LONG THOUGH...AND THE RETURN TO 30S NEXT WEEK MAY HELP
MITIGATE ANY ICE JAMMING. IT IS THE MAIN FOCUS GOING THROUGH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...FAIRLY QUITE RIVER-WISE.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ037-043-056-
064-071-072.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ038-050.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...NJJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1233 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES WITH UP
TO AN ADDITIONAL SIX INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH MID DAY THURSDAY. MOST
AREAS WILL SEE A LULL IN THE SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE BY FRIDAY BRINGING MORE SNOW. HOWEVER AT
THIS POINT IT APPEARS THIS SNOW WILL BE LIGHTER. IT WILL REMAIN
COLD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.
THE WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN COLD...THEN WE SEE A SLIGHTLY WARM UP FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW SHOULD MOVE IN FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016
THE UPDATED ZONE FORECAST AND WINTER STORM WARNING FOR KALAMAZOO
COUNTY HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 922 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016
I WILL VERY SHORTLY PUT KALAMAZOO COUNTY IN A WINTER STORM
WARNING SINCE WE HAVE HAD A REPORT OF 9 INCHES IN ALAMO IN
NORTHWEST KALAMAZOO COUNTY. RADAR DATA (STORM TOTAL SNOW DEPTH
FROM 88D) SHOWS THAT SNOW BAND EXTENDED FROM PORT SHELDON THROUGH
HOLLAND...TO JUST WEST OF THE CITY OF ALLEGAN THROUGH ALAMO. THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP MODEL SUGGEST THE SNOW BANDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT WESTERN KALAMAZOO COUNTY THE REST OF THE DAY.
BASED ON THAT...IT MAKES SENSE TO ADD THEM TO THE WARNING...SO I
WILL AND I WILL RUN THE WARNING TO MATCH THE OTHERS... 10 AM
THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED HEB 10 2016
WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH THE HEADLINES.
INVERSION LEVELS DROP A BIT TODAY AS LAST NIGHTS SHORT WAVE MOVES
EAST. HOWEVER EVEN AT 7K FEET THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
HEALTHY LAKE EFFECT BANDS. OVERALL EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN AND INTENSITY OF THE SNOW TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THE FLOW
REMAINS 330-335 THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SO THE HEAVIER BANDS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
LAKESHORE COUNTIES...AND ALL OF VAN BUREN COUNTY. SOME AREAS MAY
PICK AN ADDITIONAL SIX INCHES OF SNOW...AND LOCALLY MORE. WINDS
WILL ALSO REMAIN A FACTOR...CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING FOR MUCH OF
TODAY. MEANWHILE INLAND AREAS WILL ONLY SEE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW
WITH ACCUMS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.
EXPECT THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ITS POSSIBLE WE MAY BE ABLE TO
CANCEL THE HEADLINES AND BIT EARLY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS.
THE INVERSION LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 4K FEET FOR A BIT THURSDAY
NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING THE SNOW WILL COMPLETE END...BUT THE INTENSITY
WILL DROP OFF.
THE LAKE EFFECT WILL PERK UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER
MOVING IN. HOWEVER THE INVERSION LEVELS SEEM TO ONLY BUMP UP A
BIT...SO EXPECTING MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW. GENERALLY TWO INCHES OR LESS
FROM THIS SYSTEM FOR THE LAKESHORE AND LESS THAN AN INCH INLAND.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016
PATTERN STARTS OUT QUITE AMPLIFIED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. VERY COLD AIR WILL
BE PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITHIN THIS TROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE STILL FORECAST TO HIT
-26C TO -27C AT 700AM SAT. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO F. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT GIVEN THE VERY COLD
AIR AND NORTHERLY FLOW...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION OR
IMPACT.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AND COLD WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE DIFFICULT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE FLOW BECOMES ONE OF A FAST ZONAL NATURE.
TIMING SHORTWAVE/S IN A ZONAL FLOW AT DAY 5 AND 6 IS A TOUGH CALL.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH OUR AREA
THOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE CHANCE POPS 30-
50 PCT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE SURFACE FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ARE WEAK WITH THE ECMWF. THE SYSTEM IS A BIT MORE
DEVELOPED IN THE GFS. AT THIS POINT...SIDING WITH THE WEAKER ECMWF
AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. TUESDAY ANOTHER
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE OUT AT DAY 7 IN A ZONAL
REGIME. HAVE SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.
AFTER A COLD WEEKEND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 719 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016
STEADY STATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO MOST OF
TONIGHT. THE WAY THE BANDS WILL BE SITUATED IN A NORTH-NORTHWEST
FLOW...KLAN...KBTL AND KJXN WILL NOT BE AFFECTED TOO MUCH. THERE
WILL BE SOME OCCASIONAL MVFR AT THESE INLAND TAF SITES TODAY...BUT
MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE VFR.
THE BANDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT KAZO THE MOST AS THE BAND SHIFTS IN
AND OUT OF THAT TAF SITE. MVFR WILL BE LIKELY THERE WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS.
KMKG AND KGRR WILL SEE SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL...BUT CONDITIONS WILL
BE VARYING MORE VFR TO MVFR.
A NORTHWEST WIND OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON PLACE TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016
WE HAVE ENDED THE GALE WARNING AND REPLACED IT WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVIOSRY UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016
DOWNWARD TRENDS CONTINUE ON THE MAPLE RIVER WITH MINIMAL CONCERNS
FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS ACCOUNT FOR LESS
THAN THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND LESS THAN
HALF AN INCH INLAND. THIS TRANSLATES TO LITTLE OR NO CONCERN WITH
PRECIPITATION TYPE MOSTLY CONSISTING OF SNOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL BELOW FREEZING TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY REACHING FREEZING BY NEXT TUESDAY. ICE MAY
BEGIN TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS OVERNIGHT LOWS
BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THESE TEMPERATURES DO NOT LAST
VERY LONG THOUGH...AND THE RETURN TO 30S NEXT WEEK MAY HELP
MITIGATE ANY ICE JAMMING. IT IS THE MAIN FOCUS GOING THROUGH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...FAIRLY QUITE RIVER-WISE.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ037-043-056-
064-071-072.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ038-050.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...NJJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1136 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016
A BAND OF SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN MN. THE REST OF THE REGION
WILL BE DRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE COOLER
THAN NORMAL...WITH LIGHT WINDS.
EARLY MORNING RADAR IMAGERY WITH RAP SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MN...WITH A SURFACE LOW UPSTREAM OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE SURFACE SLOW WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEAST TOWARD NEBRASKA IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL PV
ANOMALY EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW. AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WAS
ALREADY ON RADAR ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...AND THIS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE. CENTRAL AND EASTERN MN...AND WESTERN WI
WILL BE DRY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO COLD THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...SO INCREASED TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR TODAYS HIGHS AND TONIGHTS
LOWS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016
THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/ WILL FEATURE A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND THUS A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE CWA WILL BE CONTINUOUSLY UNDER A RIDGE AXIS
UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY
COLD CONDITIONS. THE ONLY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF THE MINNESOTA RIVER OVER
SOUTHWEST MN WHEN A RIPPLE /NOT UNLIKE THE ONE CURRENTLY IMPACTING
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/ EXPLOITS A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE SURFACE
RIDGING. ONLY VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED.
THE COLDEST NIGHT WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT AS A 1045 MB HIGH SETTLES
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE LATE UNDER CLEAR SKIES
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS
THE CWA...AND LIKELY INTO THE -20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MN
AND WEST CENTRAL WI.
THAT HIGH WILL BE WHAT FINALLY KICKS THE TROUGH OUT OF NEW ENGLAND
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MARK A TRANSITION TO A MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA AS A RIDGE SLOWLY
ADVANCES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
THE FIRST OF TWO STORM SYSTEMS WILL ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WAA SNOW
THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. GFS IS MORE
BULLISH THAN THE ECMWF...BUT BOTH MODELS BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
PLOWABLE ACCUMULATION BY SUNDAY EVENING. POPS WERE ALMOST BROUGHT
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY...BUT KEPT THEM JUST BELOW 55 WITH SOME
PRETTY LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THIS TIME RANGE...NAMELY THE
LOW TRACK WHICH IS ALMOST 500 MILES BETWEEN THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF.
THE SECOND SYSTEM ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE SOUTHERN RIDGE
A BIT FURTHER EAST...THIS ONE COULD WRAP UP INTO A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM A LA THE ECMWF. STILL LARGE DIFFERENCES AMONGST
THE GUIDANCE...CERTAINLY NOT UNEXPECTED GIVEN IT IS 7 DAYS OUT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH
THE BAND OF CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM MEMPHIS TN BACK NW TO
SASKATCHEWAN MORE OR LESS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THIS
PERIOD. ONLY CHANGE IS THAT THE -SN CURRENTLY FALLING IN SW/SC MN
WILL BE PULLING OUT OF MN BY 20Z. AS IT DOES SO...ANY MVFR CIGS
WILL RISE BACK TO VFR AND WILL REMAIN THERE THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. WITH A SFC HIGH WORKING ACROSS THE AREA THIS PERIOD...WE
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AS WELL.
KMSP...ONLY AREA OF LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TAF IS WITH WIND
DIRECTION...THOUGH THAT IS TO BE EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNDER 5 KTS...SO THE VRB
DIRECTION WILL NOT BE A HUGE ISSUE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND NW AT 10G20 KT.
SAT...VFR. WIND E AT 5 KT.
SUN...MVFR/IFR WITH -SN LIKELY. WIND S 15 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
405 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016
AFTER A SEASONABLY NICE AFTERNOON...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
RAPIDLY FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING THIS EVENING AS THE SUN GOES
DOWN...WITH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO ROLL BACK IN ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT
ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS STRATUS...AND OPTED TO INTRODUCE THIS
INTO THE FORECAST AFTER ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WHILE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THE MORE DENSE FOG IS WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA...THE
LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR IS INDICATING THIS MORE DENSE AREA OF FOG
COULD AT LEAST CREEP IN ON OUR WESTERN COUNTIES TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...AND THIS WILL BE SOMETHING FOR THE EVENING SHIFT TO
MONITOR AS NEW MODEL DATA COMES IN.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LITTLE SHIFT IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MAKING ITS WAY OVER THE TOP
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY AND THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST
TO INCH BACK ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...BRINGING SIGNIFICANT LOW
LEVEL STRATUS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS THE REGION
TOMORROW...WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKING AT THE OVERALL PICTURE...UPPER LEVEL NWRLY
FLOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE HUDSON BAY AREA KEEPS THE ERN CONUS UNDER BROAD
TROUGHING...WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS NORTH THROUGH THE
ROCKIES. AT THIS POINT...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THURS NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK JUST OFF TO THE N/NE OF
THE CWA. THE MAIN STORY THROUGH FRIDAY LIES WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT...BEING PUSHED SOUTH BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH
TO THE N/NE. WHILE THE SFC PATTERN STARTS THE PERIOD OUT FAIRLY
RELAXED...THIS FRONT WITH USHER IN NRLY WINDS BY SUNRISE
FRIDAY...GRADUALLY TURNING MORE NERLY THROUGH THE DAY. COLDER AIR
STARTS TO ADVECT INTO THE CWA...AND DID LOWER FORECAST HIGHS FOR
FRIDAY...WITH NEAR 30 NOW IN THE NORTHEAST TO NEAR 40 IN THE SW.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY REGARDING PRECIP
CHANCES/LACK OF...IS NOT HIGH. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL REMAIN LOOKS TO
REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY...BUT THERE IS BETTER POTENTIAL FOR THE CWA TO
BE AFFECTED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE MAIN FLOW. LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING IS THE FIRST SHOT OF THIS ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH...WITH MODELS ALSO SHOWING THE CWA SITTING ON THE ERN
EDGE OF A 25-30KT LLJ SITTING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS HINTING
AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AFFECTING MAINLY WRN
AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DIFFERING SOME
WITH THE OVERALL THICKNESS OF THE SATURATED LAYER...LEAVING THE
QUESTION WHETHER THERE WOULD BE ANYTHING MEASURABLE...OR IF IT WOULD BE MORE
FZDZ OR FLURRIES. HAVE A 20 POP/SNOW GOING AS WELL AS A SLGT CHANCE
FOR FZDZ. ONLY KEPT THE MENTION GOING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...THOUGH IF YOU BELIEVE THE NAM QPF FIELDS THERE WOULD BE
SOMETHING AROUND ALL DAY SATURDAY. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES
GO...SATURDAY STILL FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOCATED OVER NERN IA...WITH ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA NOT TOO FAR AWAY
FROM DOUBLE DIGIT BELOW ZERO TEMPS AT 850MB. EVEN WITH THE BRUNT OF
THE COLDEST AIR OFF TO OUR EAST...FORECAST HIGHS CURRENTLY RANGE
FROM NEAR 20 IN THE NORTHEAST TO LOWER 30S IN THE SW. LOOKING TO
SUNDAY...THE FORECAST IS DRY...BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH. MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR 1 /PERHAPS 2/ WEAK WAVES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...JUST SOME DIFFERENCES
IN LOCATION. WILL SEE HOW THINGS TREND BEFORE INSERTING POPS.
EXPECTING TO SEE REBOUNDING TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AS THAT COLDER AIR
PUSHES EAST AND WARMER TEMPS START TO BUILD IN...WITH 40S CURRENTLY
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...THE FORECAST REMAINS
DRY...WITH MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TAKING OVER THE WRN CONUS AND GRADUALLY BUILDING EAST. NICE
WARM UP CURRENTLY GOING IN THE FORECAST...WITH 50S FORECAST FOR
TUE/WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID EVENING HOURS AS
MAINLY CLOUD FREE SKIES AND LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT THIS AFTERNOON AND CLEAR SKIES TO START THE
EVENING...EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG FORMATION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A RESULT. WHILE CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE LIFR CONDITIONS AS SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE...DID INCLUDE SOME MVFR VSBYS AND IFR CIGS AFT 11/06Z.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT MVFR STRATUS TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTH EVEN
IF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS ARE NOT REALIZED IN AREAS OF FOG AHEAD OF THIS
STRATUS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
431 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING BY EARLY EVENING LEAVING US WITH A CLEAR COLD AND
BREEZY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NC. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE A BIT
AS WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSES OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. WENT WITH
A CONSENSUS BLEND OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECASTS TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 20S MOST AREAS WITH UPPER 20S OUTER BANKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...DESPITE SOME SLIGHT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES ON THURSDAY...THE FORECAST 2-METER TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY
A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER. UNDER GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES...EXCEPT
FOR SOME DAYTIME CUMULUS...HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN STRUGGLE TO
REACH 40 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH MANY SPOTS REMAINING
IN THE UPPER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ARCTIC
AIRMASS MOVING INTO EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A WINTRY WEATHER WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR FRIDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA...ACCOMPANIED BY ~125KT
JETSTREAK FRIDAY...LEADING TO RE-AMPLIFYING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN HALF U.S. AND BRINGING EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS
INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
SFC HIGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA WHILE A SFC LOW DEVELOP/STRENGTHENS
OFF THE SOUTHEAST/CAROLINA COAST. CURRENT CHALLENGE ARE THE LATEST
MODELS NOT BEING CONSISTENT. 10/12Z NAM FORECASTING SOUNDING
SOUNDINGS INDICATES SATURATION IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE REGION WITH A
SLIGHT WARM NOSE...ESPECIALLY ALONG OUR SOUTHERN-MOST
COUNTIES...WITH POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX; SLEET AND POSSIBLE
-FZRA FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND -SN FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.
MEANWHILE...10/12Z GFS FORECASTING SOUNDING HAS A STRONGER WARM NOSE
AND LESS SATURATED IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE REGION THAN THE 12Z NAM.
BOTH 10/12Z GFS AND 10/12Z ECMWF HAVE SOME CONSISTENCY WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING ALONG TO THE COUNTIES ALONG SOUNDS...MAINLY NORTHERN
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUND. PLUS, WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM WPC
PROBABLISTIC WINTER GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE HAVE INCREASED AND MADE
ADJUSTMENTS FOR FRIDAY FORECAST. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW WEST OF HWY 17
WITH A WINTRY MIX TO THE SOUTH...THEN SNOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF HWY 70
IN THE AFTERNOON...MEANWHILE THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL BE MAINLY A
MIX OF -RA/-SN.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN
COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION.VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE 850MB TEMPS WILL
PLUMMET BY SUNDAY BTW -15C TO -20C WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING
INTO THE 1225-1240M RANGE. THIS WILL BRING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGH STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING ON SUNDAY.
SATURDAY`S HIGHS...MID 30S/UPPER 30S AND SUNDAY`S HIGHS IN THE UPPER
20S/LOW 30S. OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR BOTH
SATURDAY SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES
IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DEVELOPING A SFC LOW DEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. INCREASED POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE BEST
CHANCES WITH PRECIP. PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS -RA/-SN MIX MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN. THE SFC LOW WILL LIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS EASTERN NC TUESDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND MONDAY AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
40S MONDAY... IN THE LOW 50S TUESDAY AND BY WEDNESDAY MID 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. OTHER THAN A FEW SCATTERED
CUMULUS AROUND 5000 FEET OR SO...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT MIXING TO
PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT. ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR FRIDAY AND MONDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
LIKELY FRIDAY AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS/STRENGTHS ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST...BRINGING THE THREAT OF MIX WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS RETURNS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH-RESOLUTION HRRR AND RAP MODELS
HAVE DEPICTED THE FLUCTUATION IN WIND SPEED QUITE WELL TODAY WITH
A BIT OF AN AFTERNOON LULL. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE
IN WINDS THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
MOVES OFFSHORE AND GUSTY WEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WITH PERHAPS SOME
GUSTS INTO THE 30S ARE POSSIBLE. SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED BUT WILL
REMAIN IN THE 4-7 FOOT RANGE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE WINDS
INCREASE. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED FOR MOST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILT TO THE NORTH...MEANWHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP/STRENGTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST/CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM THE NW TO NE 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT FRIDAY.
WINDS AND SEA WILL INCREASE AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SFC LOW AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL RE-DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS/PAMLICO SOUND. NW WINDS 20-30 KNOTS
WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8FT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135-150-
156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
AMZ152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...CTC/BM
MARINE...CTC/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1255 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1250 PM WEDNESDAY...SKIES REMAIN SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A FEW SCATTERED CUMULUS SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE JUST
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO RISE MUCH THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 40S. NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...BASE OF UPR TROF EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
AREA THIS EVENING...LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. LOW LVLS
WILL REMAIN MIXED WITH PERSISTENT WEST WINDS 5-15 MPH WHICH WILL
INHIBIT MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT COLD AND DRY AIR MASS WILL
STILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 20S INLAND AND AROUND 30 OBX.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 510 AM WED...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS ARCTIC AIRMASS INVADES EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WX WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE NW THU INTO FRI AS
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO ROTATE ALONG THE BASE OF THE EAST
COAST UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND SUNNY SKIES
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S THU...WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE 20S THU NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FRIDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE SE STATES STRENGTHENS MOVING ALONG THE NC COAST. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS
MADE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. 00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE NOW TRENDING MUCH WETTER FOR FRI. THERMAL
PROFILES...CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES AND SREF PLUMES SUPPORT
PREDOMINANT PTYPE AS -SN WITH MAYBE A MIX OF -SN/-RA ALONG THE
COAST...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD SATURATION IN THE
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO DEVELOP
A SLIGHT WARM NOSE ALOFT...SO SOME SLEET AND POSSIBLY -FZRA COULD
ALSO BE MIXED IN WITH THE PRECIP...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA FRI WITH HIGHER POPS
E OF HWY 17...AND ADDED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA...LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT SHIFT IN TRACK
OF THE LOW COULD IMPACT THE FORECAST GREATLY AND THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS.
A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING A MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS TO
THE REGION. VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET TO -15 TO
-20C BY SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE
1225-1240M RANGE...RESULTING IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND. SOME RECORD LOW MAX VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS 35-40 DEGREES SAT...AND THEN UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S
FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. THE OUTER BANKS COULD SEE
SOME FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON AND OFF SAT INTO SUN.
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
REGARDING THE TIMING...STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THEN SFC
LOW. WILL CONTINUE SC/LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...WITH BEST
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS -RA/-SN
MIX MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN. TEMPS LOOK
TO REBOUND AND RETURN TO NEAR CLIMO...HIGHS MON 40-50 DEGREES AND
TUE IN THE LOW/MID 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. OTHER THAN A FEW SCATTERED
CUMULUS AROUND 5000 FEET OR SO...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT MIXING TO
PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT. ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WED...PRED VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AND THU NIGHT. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 25KT
THU AFTERNOON. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE NC COAST...BRINGING THE THREAT OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE TERMINALS. A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW...MAYBE MIXED WITH LIGHT RAIN AND SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. PRED VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1250 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED A BIT AS FORECAST
BY THE 3KM HRRR AND RAP MODELS. AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSES
OFFSHORE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDS INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY BY THIS
EVENING FROM THE WEST AT 15-25 KNOTS. SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED QUITE A
BIT THIS MORNING AND ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 4-7 FOOT RANGE AND
SHOULD LEVEL OFF AT 4 TO 6 FEET FOR TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...UNSETTLED BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW THU AND FRI.
GUSTY WNW WINDS 15-25KT AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL START OFF THU...BUT
SHOULD BE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THE DAY. COULD SEE SEAS DROP
BELOW 6FT BY THU EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE NC COAST FRIDAY...WHILE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW, INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR
FRI. THOUGH WILL KEEP AOB 15KT WITH SEAS 2-4FT. EXPECT STRONGER
WINDS LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-9FT.
WINDS WILL PEAK SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135-150-
156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
AMZ152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1241 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016
ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA. DID ADD A
FLURRY MENTION IN E ND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING ECHOS
ON RADAR ANS A FEW 5 TO 7 MILE VSBY REPORTS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE
MADE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016
SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH THE RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING A 150
KT JET STREAK DIGGING INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. SNOW HAS BEEN
FALLING SINCE BEFORE 06Z IN OUR WESTERN CWA...WITH AUTOMATED SITES
SHOWING AROUND 0.06 TO 0.08 INCHES OF LIQUID SO FAR. THE SNOW BAND
LINES UP WELL WITH THE UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE JET AS WELL AS
700MB FRONTOGENESIS SEEN ON SPC MESO PAGE. VIS HAS BEEN MOSTLY IN
THE 2 TO 5SM RANGE ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES HAVE BEEN DOWN TO 1SM AT
TIMES. THE MODELS HAVE FRONTOGENESIS CONTINUING UNTIL AROUND 18Z
TODAY...SO THINK WE SHOULD HAVE PRETTY DECENT BAND OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES. SOME OF THE RECENT RUNS HAVE BEEN
BACKING OFF ON QPF...BUT WILL KEEP THE 3 INCHES ACROSS THE WEST
FOR NOW AND SEE HOW THINGS ARE AT 12Z. DID CUT THE AMOUNTS IN RED
RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL BE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP
BAND.
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHEST READINGS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND
COLDER TEMPS EVEN WITH MORE SUN IN THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL START
OUT WELL BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT
ON TEMPS TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL START MOVING INTO WESTERN ND...SO OUR WEST SHOULD BE
CLOUDY EVEN AS THE PRECIP STAYS OUT OF THE CWA. THE NORTHEAST WILL
AGAIN HAVE VERY LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...SO GETTING
DOWN INTO THE 10 TO 15 BELOW RANGE WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. THE
CLOUDY WEST AND MORE SUNNY EAST SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS AGAIN SHOWING A DECENT GRADIENT OF SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW 20S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES BY LATE
FRIDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG DOWN THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING A BIT FURTHER WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL KEEP SOME LOW
POPS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BUT THINK IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL. OF GREATER NOTE IS A SURGE OF COLDER AIR COMING DOWN
DURING THE PERIOD. THE MORE THAN 1040MB HIGH DIGGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP HIGHS ON FRIDAY BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES
COLDER THAN THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...MUCH OF THE CWA
WILL DROP INTO THE 10 TO 20 BELOW RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS...AND SOME SPOTS IN THE EAST COULD BE EVEN COLDER.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THIS RUN. NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW WAVES
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS WITH RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION. A WAVE PROGRESSES EAST ON SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN BEHIND
THE SYSTEM...ANOTHER WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...WITH MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016
EXPECT CLOUDS TO PERSIST IN ALL BUT THE FAR EAST...WITH GENERAL MVFR
CIGS AND AT TIMES VFR CIGS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER 10KT FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
408 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW COMPACT DISTURBANCES WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS THROUGH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S.. A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT AND ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. AN ARCTIC BLAST WILL
DELIVER THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND WITH
DANGEROUS COLD AND WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH FLURRIES AND A
FEW BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
WITH WEAK LLVL RIDGING IN PLACE.
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND FREQUENT LES FROM MEANDERING
SNOW BANDS ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2
INCHES EVERY 4 TO 6 HOURS THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH PORTIONS OF NW
WARREN COUNTY COULD SEE NEARLY DOUBLE THOSE SNOWFALL RATES.
18Z HRRR HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH ITS PAST SEVERAL RUNS IN
DISPLAYING SIMILAR TIMING OF A NARROW NE-SW ORIENTED BAND OF
BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALLS...THAT WILL
ACCOMPANY A SECONDARY CFRONT ACROSS THE NW MTNS LATE TODAY BEFORE
REACHING A KELM TO KFIG LINE AROUND 00Z THURSDAY.
ONCE THIS SNOW BAND SLIDES OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU LATER THIS EVENING...AND LLVL INSTABILITY WANES
A BIT...THE HRRR IS PROBABLY ON TRACK WITH WEAKENING IT BY 02Z
NEAR A KAVP...TO KSEG AND KUNV LINE.
THE WELL-ALIGNED SFC-800 MB FLOW FROM ABOUT 270 DEGREES...WILL
VEER TO ABOUT 295 DEG LATE TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWINGS SE THROUGH THE AREA.
THE FRONT COULD BRING A QUICK 1/2 INCH ALONG AND EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 99/RT 22 CORRIDOR...WITH UP TO ONE INCH ON THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
BASED ON THE MODERATELY STRONG...WELL ALIGNED...AND PERSISTENT 280-290
DEG FLOW LATE TODAY THROUGH ABOUT 04Z FRIDAY...WE EXTENDED THE
WINTER WX AND LES ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS OUT IN TIME THROUGH 03Z
FRIDAY...AND EXPANDED THE WINT WX ADVIS NORTH TO COVER ELK AND
CLEARFIELD COUNTIES.
LATER TONIGHT...LOOK FOR VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
FLURRIES ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER...WHILE A FEW
BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS IN NARROW NW-SE STREAMERS OFF LAKE ERIE COULD
ADD AN ADDITIONAL LIGHT COATING FROM KAOO TO KUNV.
TEMPS ARE RIGHT AROUND THEIR FCST MAXES OF AROUND 20F ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS...AND IN THE U20S TO LOWER 30S HEADING FROM THE
CENTRAL MTNS TO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM 5-10F ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MTNS...TO THE UPPER TEENS IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. WIND CHILLS COULD
DIP TO NEAR -10F AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN
MTNS...AND IN THE ZERO TO 10 ABOVE RANGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE
ZONES...BUT WILL BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEG F ABOVE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN ANY OF THESE LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT...MEAN BLYR FLOW FROM 280-290 DEGREES WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD STRATO CU WITH CLOUD TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENN
FALLING WITHIN THE FAVORABLE DGZ OF -12 TO -18C.
THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FLURRIES AND BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS FROM
NARROW...AND SLOWLY MEANDERING BANDS. MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND 3 KM NCAR ENSEMBLE WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
FORECASTING THE LOCATION...MVMT...AND SNOW FROM THESE FAIRLY WELL-
ORGANIZED BUT NARROW SNOW BANDS THAT WILL REACH INTO THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AT TIMES.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS OF A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS WHERE THE WINT WX AND LES ADVISORIES...AND LES WARNINGS
WILL CONTINUE.
MAX TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE ONLY 12-25F WHICH IS AROUND 15 DEG F
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE BULK OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS/LES SHOULD TAPER
OFF/LIFT TO THE NORTH...CLOSELY HUGGING THE I-90 CORRIDOR AS MEAN
BLYR WINDS BACK MORE TO THE WSW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS LIKELY WITH ARCTIC FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.
POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN US INTO NEXT WEEK. EMERGENCE OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW CREATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION MON-WED BUT WITH A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE. A PATTERN SHIFT TO PACIFIC ZONAL-TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH RISING/ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS IS FCST BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FAVORS A RETURN TO MILDER WEATHER.
LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON SUNDAY...AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE
FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
LIKELY WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ. VALLEY
TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA. WIND
CHILL HEADLINES ARE A GOOD BET AND PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE MADE NOW
TO PROTECT/PREPARE FOR THE UPCOMING COLD SNAP.
A MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD CONCERNING A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL EC
REMAINS MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS IN DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE AND HAS TRENDED EVEN FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH IS 10/12Z
RUN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW BUT THE SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TAF
SITES /KIPT...KMDT AND KLNS/ WITH HIGH END MVFR CIGS AND VFR TO
MVFR VSBYS AT KUNV AND KAOO.
THE POOREST FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT KJST AND
KBFD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHERE CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE MVFR TO UPPER IFR RANGE...WITH OCNL DIPS TO
LIFR/VLIFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS AND AREAS OF ENHANCED UPSLOPE
SNOWS.
FOR KUNV...KAOO...AND PERHAPS KIPT...EXPECT UP TO A FEW HOUR
PERIOD OF MORE FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS LATE TODAY AND AFTER
SUNSET...AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
GUSTY WEST TO WNW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND
AND THURSDAY...AVERAGING 12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS IN THE LOW-MID 20
KT RANGE.
OUTLOOK...
THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR IN -SHSN ACROSS THE WRN
PENN MTNS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.
FRI...MVFR IN -SHSN...MAINLY LATE WITH STRONG COLD FRONT.
SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR OTHERWISE. WINDY.
SUN...MVFR IN -SHSN IN W MTNS EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.
MON...VFR POSSIBLE EARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PENN...THEN
LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUDS LIKELY WITH A FEW PERIODS OF SNOW
POSSIBLE...YIELDING MVFR TO IFR VSBYS AND CIGS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ010-
017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
252 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW COMPACT DISTURBANCES WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS THROUGH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S.. A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING IN THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON...WHILE ALSO CREATING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE
EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE NORTHWEST PENN
SNOW BELT...AND ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH FLURRIES AND A
FEW BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
WITH WEAK LLVL RIDGING IN PLACE.
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND FREQUENT LES FROM MEANDERING
SNOW BANDS ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2
INCHES EVERY 4 TO 6 HOURS THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH PORTIONS OF NW
WARREN COUNTY COULD SEE NEARLY DOUBLE THOSE SNOWFALL RATES.
18Z HRRR HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH ITS PAST SEVERAL RUNS IN
DISPLAYING SIMILAR TIMING OF A NARROW NE-SW ORIENTED BAND OF
BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALLS...THAT WILL
ACCOMPANY A SECONDARY CFRONT ACROSS THE NW MTNS LATE TODAY BEFORE
REACHING A KELM TO KFIG LINE AROUND 00Z THURSDAY.
ONCE THIS SNOW BAND SLIDES OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU LATER THIS EVENING...AND LLVL INSTABILITY WANES
A BIT...THE HRRR IS PROBABLY ON TRACK WITH WEAKENING IT BY 02Z
NEAR A KAVP...TO KSEG AND KUNV LINE.
THE WELL-ALIGNED SFC-800 MB FLOW FROM ABOUT 270 DEGREES...WILL
VEER TO ABOUT 295 DEG LATE TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWINGS SE THROUGH THE AREA.
THE FRONT COULD BRING A QUICK 1/2 INCH ALONG AND EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 99/RT 22 CORRIDOR...WITH UP TO ONE INCH ON THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
BASED ON THE MODERATELY STRONG...WELL ALIGNED...AND PERSISTENT 280-290
DEG FLOW LATE TODAY THROUGH ABOUT 04Z FRIDAY...WE EXTENDED THE
WINTER WX AND LES ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS OUT IN TIME THROUGH 03Z
FRIDAY...AND EXPANDED THE WINT WX ADVIS NORTH TO COVER ELK AND
CLEARFIELD COUNTIES.
LATER TONIGHT...LOOK FOR VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
FLURRIES ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER...WHILE A FEW
BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS IN NARROW NW-SE STREAMERS OFF LAKE ERIE COULD
ADD AN ADDITIONAL LIGHT COATING FROM KAOO TO KUNV.
TEMPS ARE RIGHT AROUND THEIR FCST MAXES OF AROUND 20F ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS...AND IN THE U20S TO LOWER 30S HEADING FROM THE
CENTRAL MTNS TO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM 5-10F ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MTNS...TO THE UPPER TEENS IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. WIND CHILLS COULD
DIP TO NEAR -10F AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN
MTNS...AND IN THE ZERO TO 10 ABOVE RANGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE
ZONES...BUT WILL BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEG F ABOVE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN ANY OF THESE LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT...MEAN BYLR FLOW FROM 280-290 DEGREES WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD STRATO CU WITH CLOUD TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENN
FALLING WITHIN THE FAVORABLE DGZ OF -12 TO -18C.
THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FLURRIES AND BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS FROM
NARROW...AND SLOWLY MEANDERING BANDS. MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND 3 KM NCAR EMSEMBLE WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
FORECASTING THE LOCATION...MVMT...AND SNOW FROM THESE FAIRLY WELL-
ORGANIZED BUT NARROW SNOW BANDS THAT WILL REACH INTO THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AT TIMES.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS OF A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS WHERE THE WINT WX AND LES ADVISORIES...AND LES WARNINGS
WILL CONTINUE.
MAX TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE ONLY 12-25F WHICH IS AROUND 15 DEG F
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE BULK OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS/LES SHOULD TAPER
OFF/LIFT TO THE NORTH...CLOSELY HUGGING THE I-90 CORRIDOR AS MEAN
BLYR WINDS BACK MORE TO THE WSW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE WITH ARCTIC
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY. FRIGID TEMPERATURES/DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.
POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE FIRST SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.
THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM AROUND 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ.
VALLEY TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.
A SLOW MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WITH A POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING/WAA TYPE SNOW EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TAF
SITES /KIPT...KMDT AND KLNS/ WITH HIGH END MVFR CIGS AND VFR TO
MVFR VSBYS AT KUNV AND KAOO.
THE POOREST FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT KJST AND
KBFD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHERE CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE MVFR TO UPPER IFR RANGE...WITH OCNL DIPS TO
LIFR/VLIFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS AND AREAS OF ENHANCED UPSLOPE
SNOWS.
FOR KUNV...KAOO...AND PERHAPS KIPT...EXPECT UP TO A FEW HOUR
PERIOD OF MORE FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS LATE TODAY AND AFTER
SUNSET...AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
GUSTY WEST TO WNW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND
AND THURSDAY...AVERAGING 12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS IN THE LOW-MID 20
KT RANGE.
OUTLOOK...
THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR IN -SHSN ACROSS THE WRN
PENN MTNS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.
FRI...MVFR IN -SHSN...MAINLY LATE WITH STRONG COLD FRONT.
SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR OTHERWISE. WINDY.
SUN...MVFR IN -SHSN IN W MTNS EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.
MON...VFR POSSIBLE EARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PENN...THEN
LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUDS LIKELY WITH A FEW PERIODS OF SNOW
POSSIBLE...YIELDING MVFR TO IFR VSBYS AND CIGS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ010-
017-024-033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT
AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
223 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will weaken over the next couple of days, which
will allow for an increasing chance of precipitation. A warm front
on Thursday followed by a cold front passage on Friday will
produce light valley rain and high mountain snow across much of
the region. Unsettled weather will continue through the weekend
into early next week with valley rain, high mountain snow and
breezy winds expected. Temperatures will be quite mild on Monday
with many locations seeing highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: A weak cold front will push across the region this
evening and is already beginning to push east of the Cascades this
afternoon. Radar did pick up on some light rain west of the
Cascades earlier in the day. Lower levels are a bit drier on this
side of the Cascades, so I do not expect the same kind of radar
returns as moisture increases. Expect mainly very light precip or
sprinkles/high mountain flurries for the evening. Upslope flow
into the Panhandle will keep a small chance for showers through
the night.
Thursday and Thursday night: A warm front will push in over the
region behind the cold front passage tonight. This front will
result in a resurgence of moisture into the region and will have
access to a better moisture tap. In fact, this higher moisture
content is noticeable on water vapor imagery with better
enhancement out at around 36N and 136W in the eastern Pacific.
Most areas will see light precipitation with the Cascades seeing
the best chances in the afternoon and then shifting over to the
Panhandle overnight. Snow levels will remain relatively high with
mainly valley rain and high mountain snow. The one exception to
this will be possibly up the Methow Valley. The NAM model in
particular shows a nearly isothermal profile right along the 0
degree line from the surface up to around 5,000 ft MSL. Really
tough to say if this will translate as snow or rain for places
like Winthrop and Mazama. It will likely depend on how much these
locations can warm up through the day on Thursday as the steadier
precip likely will not get going until the afternoon hours.
Temperatures will generally remain above normal. Nighttime
temperatures will feel quite mild, especially Thursday night as
warm air advection and cloud cover will yield lows in the mid to
upper 30s for many locations. /SVH
Friday through Wednesday...A wet, but warm pattern will set up
over the region through this portion of the forecast. A cold
front will move through the Inland Northwest Friday afternoon,
resulting in a good chance for showers. Then the flow becomes
westerly through the weekend and into next week with a series of
weak frontal boundaries that will keep conditions unsettled.
Friday and Saturday...Model guidance is pretty similar showing
a cold front moving into the Cascades around late morning, then
moving slowly through the forecast area Friday afternoon/evening
and should be well east of the area by early Saturday morning.
Ahead of the front good isentropic lift and deep Pacific moisture
will result in widespread stratiform precipitation. As the front
moves through the area we expect drying from the west, with
precipitation turning showery near the Cascade crest and for the
Panhandle mountains. Snow levels start out between 5000-7000 feet,
but will drop with the frontal passage down to 3000-4000. This
will mean high mountain snow and low elevation rain. QPF totals
through Saturday afternoon will range from around a tenth to a
quarter of an inch for the lowlands and a quarter to a half inch
for the mountains, and locally a little more. Snow amounts for the
higher elevations look to be 2-5 inches. Winds with and just
behind the cold front Friday night and Saturday will increase out
of the southwest 10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph. Temperatures will
be in the upper 30s to upper 40s and on the warm side of normal.
Sunday through Wednesday...The active weather will continue through
the end of the forecast period. Rain and snow will be in the
forecast just about every day. The exception may be Tuesday when
another fast moving ridge moves through the region. But this will
be short lived. After Sunday morning snow levels will remain high
above 5000-5500 feet, so precipitation as low elevation rain and
high mountains snow. Temperatures will climb into the 50s to low
60s Monday and Tuesday, before cooling off on Wednesday.
One thing we will be keeping an eye on will be breezy/gusty winds
on Monday with southwest winds 15-20 mph and gusts 25-30 mph. The
combination of the warm temperatures mentioned above, high dew
points and breezy winds is a great pattern for rapid snow melt,
especially at the lower and mid elevations. Snow melt will likely
result in rises on small rivers and streams. Flooding is not
expected at this time. However, run-off may fill up road side
ditches etc, and result in ponding and the potential for low water
crossing in areas that have substantial low elevation snow. For
example the Waterville Plateau, The Methow valley, and some of the
northern mountain valleys. This will be monitored through the
weekend so stay tuned. Tobin
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A couple waves will cross the Inland NW today, while a
more organized warm front begins to lift into tomorrow. Stratus
and fog will continue to impact portions of eastern WA/north ID
before 20-21Z. At the same time middle to high clouds will
thicken. There could be some sprinkles overnight/early Thursday
with the clouds. However aside from EAT which will have a VCSH
threat Thursday morning, most locations will see dry weather. So
look for improving cigs/vis this afternoon, then some decrease in
cigs/vis again tonight/early Thursday. However the influx of
middle to high clouds is expected to limit the extent and coverage
of fog for Thursday morning. /J. Cote`
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 34 46 38 48 34 45 / 10 20 70 70 70 40
Coeur d`Alene 34 46 38 47 36 44 / 10 20 70 70 80 60
Pullman 40 51 42 52 37 47 / 10 10 20 50 60 40
Lewiston 44 55 44 57 41 53 / 0 10 20 40 50 40
Colville 33 41 35 42 33 42 / 10 20 80 60 70 50
Sandpoint 33 43 36 43 34 41 / 10 20 90 70 90 60
Kellogg 36 43 37 44 35 39 / 20 20 70 60 90 80
Moses Lake 33 46 37 48 34 49 / 0 20 40 50 30 10
Wenatchee 33 40 35 44 32 45 / 10 60 80 40 30 10
Omak 30 37 34 38 30 41 / 10 40 80 40 30 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for East Slopes
Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
223 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will weaken over the next couple of days, which
will allow for an increasing chance of precipitation. A warm front
on Thursday followed by a cold front passage on Friday will
produce light valley rain and high mountain snow across much of
the region. Unsettled weather will continue through the weekend
into early next week with valley rain, high mountain snow and
breezy winds expected. Temperatures will be quite mild on Monday
with many locations seeing highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: A weak cold front will push across the region this
evening and is already beginning to push east of the Cascades this
afternoon. Radar did pick up on some light rain west of the
Cascades earlier in the day. Lower levels are a bit drier on this
side of the Cascades, so I do not expect the same kind of radar
returns as moisture increases. Expect mainly very light precip or
sprinkles/high mountain flurries for the evening. Upslope flow
into the Panhandle will keep a small chance for showers through
the night.
Thursday and Thursday night: A warm front will push in over the
region behind the cold front passage tonight. This front will
result in a resurgence of moisture into the region and will have
access to a better moisture tap. In fact, this higher moisture
content is noticeable on water vapor imagery with better
enhancement out at around 36N and 136W in the eastern Pacific.
Most areas will see light precipitation with the Cascades seeing
the best chances in the afternoon and then shifting over to the
Panhandle overnight. Snow levels will remain relatively high with
mainly valley rain and high mountain snow. The one exception to
this will be possibly up the Methow Valley. The NAM model in
particular shows a nearly isothermal profile right along the 0
degree line from the surface up to around 5,000 ft MSL. Really
tough to say if this will translate as snow or rain for places
like Winthrop and Mazama. It will likely depend on how much these
locations can warm up through the day on Thursday as the steadier
precip likely will not get going until the afternoon hours.
Temperatures will generally remain above normal. Nighttime
temperatures will feel quite mild, especially Thursday night as
warm air advection and cloud cover will yield lows in the mid to
upper 30s for many locations. /SVH
Friday through Wednesday...A wet, but warm pattern will set up
over the region through this portion of the forecast. A cold
front will move through the Inland Northwest Friday afternoon,
resulting in a good chance for showers. Then the flow becomes
westerly through the weekend and into next week with a series of
weak frontal boundaries that will keep conditions unsettled.
Friday and Saturday...Model guidance is pretty similar showing
a cold front moving into the Cascades around late morning, then
moving slowly through the forecast area Friday afternoon/evening
and should be well east of the area by early Saturday morning.
Ahead of the front good isentropic lift and deep Pacific moisture
will result in widespread stratiform precipitation. As the front
moves through the area we expect drying from the west, with
precipitation turning showery near the Cascade crest and for the
Panhandle mountains. Snow levels start out between 5000-7000 feet,
but will drop with the frontal passage down to 3000-4000. This
will mean high mountain snow and low elevation rain. QPF totals
through Saturday afternoon will range from around a tenth to a
quarter of an inch for the lowlands and a quarter to a half inch
for the mountains, and locally a little more. Snow amounts for the
higher elevations look to be 2-5 inches. Winds with and just
behind the cold front Friday night and Saturday will increase out
of the southwest 10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph. Temperatures will
be in the upper 30s to upper 40s and on the warm side of normal.
Sunday through Wednesday...The active weather will continue through
the end of the forecast period. Rain and snow will be in the
forecast just about every day. The exception may be Tuesday when
another fast moving ridge moves through the region. But this will
be short lived. After Sunday morning snow levels will remain high
above 5000-5500 feet, so precipitation as low elevation rain and
high mountains snow. Temperatures will climb into the 50s to low
60s Monday and Tuesday, before cooling off on Wednesday.
One thing we will be keeping an eye on will be breezy/gusty winds
on Monday with southwest winds 15-20 mph and gusts 25-30 mph. The
combination of the warm temperatures mentioned above, high dew
points and breezy winds is a great pattern for rapid snow melt,
especially at the lower and mid elevations. Snow melt will likely
result in rises on small rivers and streams. Flooding is not
expected at this time. However, run-off may fill up road side
ditches etc, and result in ponding and the potential for low water
crossing in areas that have substantial low elevation snow. For
example the Waterville Plateau, The Methow valley, and some of the
northern mountain valleys. This will be monitored through the
weekend so stay tuned. Tobin
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A couple waves will cross the Inland NW today, while a
more organized warm front begins to lift into tomorrow. Stratus
and fog will continue to impact portions of eastern WA/north ID
before 20-21Z. At the same time middle to high clouds will
thicken. There could be some sprinkles overnight/early Thursday
with the clouds. However aside from EAT which will have a VCSH
threat Thursday morning, most locations will see dry weather. So
look for improving cigs/vis this afternoon, then some decrease in
cigs/vis again tonight/early Thursday. However the influx of
middle to high clouds is expected to limit the extent and coverage
of fog for Thursday morning. /J. Cote`
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 34 46 38 48 34 45 / 10 20 70 70 70 40
Coeur d`Alene 34 46 38 47 36 44 / 10 20 70 70 80 60
Pullman 40 51 42 52 37 47 / 10 10 20 50 60 40
Lewiston 44 55 44 57 41 53 / 0 10 20 40 50 40
Colville 33 41 35 42 33 42 / 10 20 80 60 70 50
Sandpoint 33 43 36 43 34 41 / 10 20 90 70 90 60
Kellogg 36 43 37 44 35 39 / 20 20 70 60 90 80
Moses Lake 33 46 37 48 34 49 / 0 20 40 50 30 10
Wenatchee 33 40 35 44 32 45 / 10 60 80 40 30 10
Omak 30 37 34 38 30 41 / 10 40 80 40 30 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for East Slopes
Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1036 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will persist today, with dry and mild
conditions. However there will be increased cloud cover compared
to the last couple days. A more progressive and unsettled pattern
will return later this week, bringing a chance of light rain
Thursday in the Cascades, then throughout the region Friday into
early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A weak disturbance is crossing western WA this morning. This will
have some impact over our area as it pushes east of the Cascades.
Mainly this will be as some thickening mid level cloud cover;
however, models do suggest a small possibility for measurable
precip across the northern mountains this afternoon and into the
Panhandle tonight. Precip chances were increased a bit to reflect
this idea. Higher elevations will see the best chances for
measurable precip, whereas the valleys will more likely only see
some occasional sprinkles. /SVH
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A couple waves will cross the Inland NW today, while a
more organized warm front begins to lift into tomorrow. Stratus
and fog will continue to impact portions of eastern WA/north ID
before 20-21Z. At the same time middle to high clouds will
thicken. There could be some sprinkles overnight/early Thursday
with the clouds. However aside from EAT which will have a VCSH
threat Thursday morning, most locations will see dry weather. So
look for improving cigs/vis this afternoon, then some decrease in
cigs/vis again tonight/early Thursday. However the influx of
middle to high clouds is expected to limit the extent and coverage
of fog for Thursday morning. /J. Cote`
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 46 34 46 38 48 36 / 0 10 30 40 70 70
Coeur d`Alene 46 34 46 37 47 37 / 0 10 20 50 70 80
Pullman 51 39 51 40 52 38 / 0 10 10 20 50 60
Lewiston 55 40 56 42 57 42 / 0 0 0 10 40 50
Colville 42 32 41 35 42 36 / 10 10 50 70 60 70
Sandpoint 42 33 43 35 44 34 / 10 10 30 70 70 90
Kellogg 43 35 44 38 44 36 / 0 20 20 50 60 90
Moses Lake 47 34 47 38 48 37 / 0 0 30 30 50 30
Wenatchee 42 33 40 35 45 35 / 10 10 50 70 40 30
Omak 36 31 37 34 38 34 / 10 10 50 70 40 30
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for East Slopes
Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1036 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will persist today, with dry and mild
conditions. However there will be increased cloud cover compared
to the last couple days. A more progressive and unsettled pattern
will return later this week, bringing a chance of light rain
Thursday in the Cascades, then throughout the region Friday into
early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A weak disturbance is crossing western WA this morning. This will
have some impact over our area as it pushes east of the Cascades.
Mainly this will be as some thickening mid level cloud cover;
however, models do suggest a small possibility for measurable
precip across the northern mountains this afternoon and into the
Panhandle tonight. Precip chances were increased a bit to reflect
this idea. Higher elevations will see the best chances for
measurable precip, whereas the valleys will more likely only see
some occasional sprinkles. /SVH
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A couple waves will cross the Inland NW today, while a
more organized warm front begins to lift into tomorrow. Stratus
and fog will continue to impact portions of eastern WA/north ID
before 20-21Z. At the same time middle to high clouds will
thicken. There could be some sprinkles overnight/early Thursday
with the clouds. However aside from EAT which will have a VCSH
threat Thursday morning, most locations will see dry weather. So
look for improving cigs/vis this afternoon, then some decrease in
cigs/vis again tonight/early Thursday. However the influx of
middle to high clouds is expected to limit the extent and coverage
of fog for Thursday morning. /J. Cote`
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 46 34 46 38 48 36 / 0 10 30 40 70 70
Coeur d`Alene 46 34 46 37 47 37 / 0 10 20 50 70 80
Pullman 51 39 51 40 52 38 / 0 10 10 20 50 60
Lewiston 55 40 56 42 57 42 / 0 0 0 10 40 50
Colville 42 32 41 35 42 36 / 10 10 50 70 60 70
Sandpoint 42 33 43 35 44 34 / 10 10 30 70 70 90
Kellogg 43 35 44 38 44 36 / 0 20 20 50 60 90
Moses Lake 47 34 47 38 48 37 / 0 0 30 30 50 30
Wenatchee 42 33 40 35 45 35 / 10 10 50 70 40 30
Omak 36 31 37 34 38 34 / 10 10 50 70 40 30
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for East Slopes
Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1036 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will persist today, with dry and mild
conditions. However there will be increased cloud cover compared
to the last couple days. A more progressive and unsettled pattern
will return later this week, bringing a chance of light rain
Thursday in the Cascades, then throughout the region Friday into
early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A weak disturbance is crossing western WA this morning. This will
have some impact over our area as it pushes east of the Cascades.
Mainly this will be as some thickening mid level cloud cover;
however, models do suggest a small possibility for measurable
precip across the northern mountains this afternoon and into the
Panhandle tonight. Precip chances were increased a bit to reflect
this idea. Higher elevations will see the best chances for
measurable precip, whereas the valleys will more likely only see
some occasional sprinkles. /SVH
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A couple waves will cross the Inland NW today, while a
more organized warm front begins to lift into tomorrow. Stratus
and fog will continue to impact portions of eastern WA/north ID
before 20-21Z. At the same time middle to high clouds will
thicken. There could be some sprinkles overnight/early Thursday
with the clouds. However aside from EAT which will have a VCSH
threat Thursday morning, most locations will see dry weather. So
look for improving cigs/vis this afternoon, then some decrease in
cigs/vis again tonight/early Thursday. However the influx of
middle to high clouds is expected to limit the extent and coverage
of fog for Thursday morning. /J. Cote`
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 46 34 46 38 48 36 / 0 10 30 40 70 70
Coeur d`Alene 46 34 46 37 47 37 / 0 10 20 50 70 80
Pullman 51 39 51 40 52 38 / 0 10 10 20 50 60
Lewiston 55 40 56 42 57 42 / 0 0 0 10 40 50
Colville 42 32 41 35 42 36 / 10 10 50 70 60 70
Sandpoint 42 33 43 35 44 34 / 10 10 30 70 70 90
Kellogg 43 35 44 38 44 36 / 0 20 20 50 60 90
Moses Lake 47 34 47 38 48 37 / 0 0 30 30 50 30
Wenatchee 42 33 40 35 45 35 / 10 10 50 70 40 30
Omak 36 31 37 34 38 34 / 10 10 50 70 40 30
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for East Slopes
Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
951 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will persist today, with dry and mild
conditions. However there will be increased cloud cover compared
to the last couple days. A more progressive and unsettled pattern
will return later this week, bringing a chance of light rain
Thursday in the Cascades, then throughout the region Friday into
early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...The unusually strong ridge which has
blanketed the Inland Northwest for the past several days will
finally begin to weaken as minor upper level disturbances track
through the region. Looking at the latest satellite loops, the
first disturbance is currently tracking through the eastern third
of Washington right now, with another one moving into western
Washington. Based on GOES BUFR sounding and radar data, both are
rather minor features. The easternmost feature only contains high
clouds, while the western one is producing a few sprinkles near
the coast. This second feature is expected to move into the
Cascades later today and could produce some very light
precipitation mainly near the crest. Otherwise the main impact of
these systems will be an increased cloud trend compared to the
last couple days as well as slightly cooler temperatures.
Nonetheless, readings will still remain warmer than normal for
this time of year with highs generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s
for most valley locations. The exception once again will occur
over the far NW part of the forecast area, namely the Methow
Valley and Okanogan Valley and Highlands due to a very stubborn
cold pool near the ground. Looks like this could stick around
until we get a more robust front through the area, which won`t
likely be today. The other problem for today will be the potential
for fog. We suspect the coverage should be greater than we have
seen for the past couple days as the wind fields are generally
lighter with higher humidity levels. Hard to tell where most of it
will form, however the HRRR suggests most of it will occur over
the western Columbia Basin. This is not supported at this time by
the fog product but will bear watching. Meanwhile for the first
time this week, visibility restrictions were developing over parts
of the Spokane/CdA area and suspect the trend will be for
increasing fog. For tonight, the second front will receive a
little boost in strength as a shortwave trough currently around
127w moves inland. We don`t think this will produce much weather
other than a chance of light precipitation again near the
Cascades. The increased cloud cover should minimize the fog
potential overnight.
For Thursday and Thursday night...the ridge looks like it could
rebound again as pressure falls develop around 140w. The
interesting thing from this development is it takes the residual
moisture from tonight`s front and pivots it from a north-south
orientation to more of an east-west orientation as a warm front
pushes northward. The isentropic ascent from this front begins to
steepen and precipitation chances will increase steadily from
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Light to moderate
precipitation is expected to develop with a few locations near the
Cascades nearing up to half an inch. The remainder of the area
will see amounts generally ranging from .10-.25 inches. While most
of this will fall as rain with snow rising to 5500 feet near the
Canadian Border and to 7000 feet or higher south of I-90, there
is the possibility of a messy mix across the upper Methow Valley.
Model BUFR soundings are showing a temperature right around
freezing near the ground and extending up to nearly 5000 feet
through much of the event. Strangely the NAM BUFR is showing an
initial precip type of rain by midday Thursday followed by snow.
Given the warm air advection associated with the warm front and
little potential for wet bulb cooling, this seems unlikely.
However this will need to be watched especially if the
precipitation begins earlier and falls into an initially cooler
air mass. fx
Friday through Tuesday...An active weather pattern is expected
during the extended period. A cold front will track across the
Inland NW Friday into Friday night followed by cool and showery
weather on Saturday as the upper trough axis swings through. Snow
levels early on Friday start off at 6000-7000 feet before lowering
to 3000-4000 feet Saturday morning behind the cold front. Behind
the cold front mid level westerly flow will favor showers most
prevalent near the Cascade crest and Idaho Panhandle with snow
showers expected over the passes. Given the time of year (mid-
February) and its associated higher sun angle compared to late
December road temperatures may be too warm for significant travel
impacts over the passes but this will continue to be monitored.
Another warm front will pass through Sunday into Monday bringing
another round of precipitation with rising snow levels. Monday
has the potential to be very mild with the Inland NW in the warm
sector with breezy south- southwest winds as pressure gradients
tighten. The details differ after Monday with the timing of a cold
front with the ECMWF showing Monday night and GFS Tuesday night.
Given these uncertainties no changes were made to the Tuesday
forecast which favors the slower solution. This front may bring
in breezy to windy conditions once it passes. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A couple waves will cross the Inland NW today, while a
more organized warm front begins to lift into tomorrow. Stratus
and fog will continue to impact portions of eastern WA/north ID
before 20-21Z. At the same time middle to high clouds will
thicken. There could be some sprinkles overnight/early Thursday
with the clouds. However aside from EAT which will have a VCSH
threat Thursday morning, most locations will see dry weather. So
look for improving cigs/vis this afternoon, then some decrease in
cigs/vis again tonight/early Thursday. However the influx of
middle to high clouds is expected to limit the extent and coverage
of fog for Thursday morning. /J. Cote`
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 46 34 46 38 48 36 / 0 0 30 40 70 70
Coeur d`Alene 46 34 46 37 47 37 / 0 0 20 50 70 80
Pullman 51 39 51 40 52 38 / 0 0 10 20 50 60
Lewiston 55 40 56 42 57 42 / 0 0 0 10 40 50
Colville 42 32 41 35 42 36 / 10 10 50 70 60 70
Sandpoint 42 33 43 35 44 34 / 10 10 30 70 70 90
Kellogg 43 35 44 38 44 36 / 0 0 20 50 60 90
Moses Lake 47 34 47 38 48 37 / 0 0 30 30 50 30
Wenatchee 42 33 40 35 45 35 / 10 0 50 70 40 30
Omak 36 31 37 34 38 34 / 10 0 50 70 40 30
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for East Slopes
Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
838 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...MILD AIR MASS TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRI.
WEAK FRONTS OFFSHORE WILL BRUSH THE NW TODAY AND THU...WITH VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
ALONG THE COAST AND POSSIBLY INLAND. THAT CHANGES BY FRI...AS FIRST
IN A SERIES OF FRONTS PUSH INTO THE PAC NW. SHOWERY ON SATURDAY...BUT
MORE RAIN ARRIVES ON SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING
SHOWS A WEAKENING MID LEVEL FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AN 850MB
BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS INLAND SO HAVE KEPT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY. GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL HANG ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...CANNOT
RULE OUT A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO...BUT IN GENERAL...ANY RAIN THAT FALLS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND RATHER ISOLATED.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES
NORTHWARD ALONG 140W ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AT
THIS POINT...THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST DYNAMICS WILL PRIMARILY
STAY OFFSHORE SO KEPT THE TREND OF KEEPING THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES AND LOWEST POPS ACROSS LANE AND LINN
COUNTIES. NONETHELESS...IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME RAIN ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AT SOME POINT THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY
SPREAD ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN INTO THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD LOWERING INTO THE 4000-4500 FT RANGE ON FRIDAY. AS POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS SPREAD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...SNOW LEVELS MAY LOWER ANOTHER 500 FT OR SO AND BRING
SOME IMPACTS TO TRAVEL IN THE CASCADES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
CASCADES APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN UNDER WINTER WX ADVISORY CRITERIA
THOUGH.
A WARMER AND WETTER STORM SYSTEM APPEARS ON TRACK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
/NEUMAN
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
COOLER ON SATURDAY...WITH SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. SNOW LEVELS
SITTING AROUND 3500 TO 4000 FEET ON SAT...WITH SOME NEW SNOW EXPECTED
OVER THE CASCADES. NOT A LOT...BUT COULD SEE 3 TO 8 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW AT THE PASSES AND ABOVE. RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE
PAC...WITH ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVING ON SUN. HAVE INCREASES PROB OF RAIN
ON SUNDAY. BRIEF BREAK ON MON...BUT LOOKS WET AFTERWARDS AS YET
ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES ON TUE. REST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS RATHER CLOUDY
AND WET...WITH SNOW LEVELS BOUNCING FROM 3500 TO 5500 FT. ROCKEY.
&&
.AVIATION...MOST AREAS VFR THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
POCKETS OF IFR CIGS IN THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY NEAR KEUG AND
KCVO. A WEAK FRONT IS BRINGING RAIN...MVFR AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
UP TO 25 KT TO THE COAST THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES INLAND BUT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST
RANGE AND AREAS NORTH OF PORTLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAY
SEE BRIEF PERIODIC MVFR CIGS BETWEEN SALEM AND PORTLAND...BUT
THINK VFR WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE SOUTH OF PORTLAND EAST OF THE
COAST RANGE. EXPECT MVFR VSBYS FOR THE COAST AND PARTS OF THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE
THE CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR NEXT 24 HRS. THERE MAY BE BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDY WITH VFR CIGS AND VSBYS TONIGHT. TJ
&&
.MARINE...BUOY 89 AND BUOY 50 ARE SHOWING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
GUSTS THIS MORNING AND THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR A LOW-END
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TODAY HAS IMPROVED. THE SEAS AT THE BUOYS
ARE 1 TO 2 FT BELOW GUIDANCE THIS MORNING AND HAVE ADJUSTED TODAYS
SWELL FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. THE SEAS STILL LOOK ON TRACK TO BUILD
TO 10 FT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TO ABOVE 10 FT THURSDAY...AS A
LONGER-PERIOD NW SWELL MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. THERE IS ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A COMPLEX LOW OFFSHORE WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED SEAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TJ
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
443 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure will persist today, with dry and
mild conditions however there will be increased cloud cover compared
to the last couple days. A more progressive and unsettled pattern
will return later this week, bringing a chance of light rain
Thursday in the Cascades, then throughout the region Friday
into early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...The unusually strong ridge which has
blanketed the Inland Northwest for the past several days will
finally begin to weaken as minor upper level disturbances track
through the region. Looking at the latest satellite loops, the
first disturbance is currently tracking through the eastern third
of Washington right now, with another one moving into western
Washington. Based on GOES BUFR sounding and radar data, both are
rather minor features. The easternmost feature only contains high
clouds, while the western one is producing a few sprinkles near
the coast. This second feature is expected to move into the
Cascades later today and could produce some very light
precipitation mainly near the crest. Otherwise the main impact of
these systems will be an increased cloud trend compared to the
last couple days as well as slightly cooler temperatures.
Nonetheless, readings will still remain warmer than normal for
this time of year with highs generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s
for most valley locations. The exception once again will occur
over the far NW part of the forecast area, namely the Methow
Valley and Okanogan Valley and Highlands due to a very stubborn
cold pool near the ground. Looks like this could stick around
until we get a more robust front through the area, which won`t
likely be today. The other problem for today will be the potential
for fog. We suspect the coverage should be greater than we have
seen for the past couple days as the wind fields are generally
lighter with higher humidity levels. Hard to tell where most of it
will form, however the HRRR suggests most of it will occur over
the western Columbia Basin. This is not supported at this time by
the fog product but will bear watching. Meanwhile for the first
time this week, visibility restrictions were developing over parts
of the Spokane/CdA area and suspect the trend will be for
increasing fog. For tonight, the second front will receive a
little boost in strength as a shortwave trough currently around
127w moves inland. We don`t think this will produce much weather
other than a chance of light precipitation again near the
Cascades. The increased cloud cover should minimize the fog
potential overnight.
For Thursday and Thursday night...the ridge looks like it could
rebound again as pressure falls develop around 140w. The
interesting thing from this development is it takes the residual
moisture from tonight`s front and pivots it from a north-south
orientation to more of an east-west orientation as a warm front
pushes northward. The isentropic ascent from this front begins to
steepen and precipitation chances will increase steadily from
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Light to moderate
precipitation is expected to develop with a few locations near the
Cascades nearing up to half an inch. The remainder of the area
will see amounts generally ranging from .10-.25 inches. While most
of this will fall as rain with snow rising to 5500 feet near the
Canadian Border and to 7000 feet or higher south of I-90, there
is the possibility of a messy mix across the upper Methow Valley.
Model BUFR soundings are showing a temperature right around
freezing near the ground and extending up to nearly 5000 feet
through much of the event. Strangely the NAM BUFR is showing an
initial precip type of rain by midday Thursday followed by snow.
Given the warm air advection associated with the warm front and
little potential for wet bulb cooling, this seems unlikely.
However this will need to be watched especially if the
precipitation begins earlier and falls into an initially cooler
air mass. fx
Friday through Tuesday...An active weather pattern is expected
during the extended period. A cold front will track across the
Inland NW Friday into Friday night followed by cool and showery
weather on Saturday as the upper trough axis swings through. Snow
levels early on Friday start off at 6000-7000 feet before lowering
to 3000-4000 feet Saturday morning behind the cold front. Behind
the cold front mid level westerly flow will favor showers most
prevalent near the Cascade crest and Idaho Panhandle with snow
showers expected over the passes. Given the time of year (mid-
February) and its associated higher sun angle compared to late
December road temperatures may be too warm for significant travel
impacts over the passes but this will continue to be monitored.
Another warm front will pass through Sunday into Monday bringing
another round of precipitation with rising snow levels. Monday
has the potential to be very mild with the Inland NW in the warm
sector with breezy south- southwest winds as pressure gradients
tighten. The details differ after Monday with the timing of a cold
front with the ECMWF showing Monday night and GFS Tuesday night.
Given these uncertainties no changes were made to the Tuesday
forecast which favors the slower solution. This front may bring
in breezy to windy conditions once it passes. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Fog and stratus is much more prevalent this morning than
it`s been compared to the last few days. The latest fog product was
showing widespread stratus over most of the valleys of NE WA and N
ID. Confidence is high that this will bring IFR (or worse)
conditions to GEG and COE through at least 18z. Although there
wasn`t anything evident around SFF at 12z, it could easily spread
into there later this morning resulting in IFR conditions as well.
For now we will leave it out of the forecast as the steering flow is
quite weak. Patchy fog was also reported near EAT however the local
webcams suggest it is quite patchy and mainly located by the river.
Conditions there could vary rapidly. Also some stratus forming just
east of MWH and it could approach the airport later this
morning.Odds are not high however so we left it out of the forecast.
LWS and PUW will continue to see VFR conditions due to continued
east winds. We suspect most of the low clouds will clear between 18-
20z with VFR conditions for all sites after that. Forecast
confidence for the overnight hours is low. We should see high clouds
pass over the area as a weak front passes through the region,
however whether or not this will impede the reformation of stratus
or fog is questionable. We suspect it won`t and placed IFR/MVFR
conditions back into the forecast between 06-09z for most sites. fx
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 46 34 46 38 48 36 / 0 0 30 40 60 70
Coeur d`Alene 46 34 46 37 47 37 / 0 0 20 50 60 80
Pullman 51 39 51 40 52 38 / 0 0 10 20 50 60
Lewiston 55 40 56 42 57 42 / 0 0 0 10 40 50
Colville 42 32 41 35 42 36 / 0 10 50 70 60 70
Sandpoint 42 33 43 35 44 34 / 0 10 30 70 60 90
Kellogg 43 35 44 38 44 36 / 0 0 20 50 50 90
Moses Lake 47 34 47 38 48 37 / 0 0 30 30 50 40
Wenatchee 42 33 40 35 45 35 / 0 0 50 70 50 30
Omak 36 31 37 34 38 34 / 0 0 50 70 50 40
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for East Slopes
Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1028 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016
.UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CLOUDS REMAIN THE
BIGGEST CHALLENGE. NONE OF THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS GRABBED ON
TO THE TENDRIL OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY EXTENDING INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FROM THE NORTH. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING AT
LEAST SCATTERED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN OUR SOUTHEAST. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CLEAR...THOUGH OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST MAY SEE SOME MID CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS STILL STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THE BAND OF
VFR/MVFR CLOUDS EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FROM THE
NORTH. PER MODEL SOUNDINGS...EXPECTING CIGS TO HOVER AROUND THAT
3KFT LEVEL THROUGH THE DAY...SKEWING TOWARD JUST ABOVE 3KFT AS THE
DAY GOES ON. CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ALONG
THE LAKE BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON CLOUD COVER WITH WHETHER IT WILL CLEAR OUT
AND IF SO...HOW FAST.
CURRENTLY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
FROM THE SURFACE ON UP THROUGH THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE DUE TO A STACKED
TROUGH ENTERING NEW ENGLAND. NOT MUCH WILL CHANGE WITH THIS PATTERN
LOCALLY TODAY WITH A RIDGE AXIS PLACED ALONG THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND A QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING THROUGH
THE DAKOTAS/CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED AS WELL WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES HANGING AROUND -20C. IR
SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN EXTENDING UP
TO LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A CLEAR SLOT ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN. NONE OF THE
SHORT TERM MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS THIN LAYER OF
MOISTURE AROUND 3KFT WITH THE 10.06Z RAP THE CLOSEST WHEN COMPARED
TO THE HRRR/WRF-ARW/NMM. WITH THE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...AM
EXPECTING THAT SOME OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OF OF THE LAKE WILL
HELP TO KEEP SOME SORT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND TODAY UNTIL THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY TONIGHT.
THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ELONGATED SHEAR AXIS ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH
WILL SHIFT EAST WITH STRONG NW UPPER FLOW PERSISTING. VERY CHILLY
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH 925 TEMPS SHOWING ONLY SUBTLE
MODIFICATION AS LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TURNS MORE WESTERLY. SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS FROM MN INTO IA AND IL.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
NORTHWEST 500 MILLIBAR FLOW STRENGTHENS AND BECOMES INCREASINGLY
CYCLONIC ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WITHIN
THIS FLOW HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO LWR MI WITH CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE
EASTERN GRT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH SRN
WI. 925 TEMPS WILL DROP THROUGH THE NEGATIVE TEENS CELSIUS WITH
NEGATIVE LOW AND EVEN POSSIBLE MID 20S CELSIUS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS WITH WIND CHILLS GETTING
NEAR OR IN SOME CASES REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON WIND STRENGTH LATER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A
WEAKER GRADIENT SETTING UP WITH 1040 MILLIBAR HIGH DRAWING CLOSER
FROM MN AND IA. THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A LITTLE MORE WIND
POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
AFTER A BITTERLY COLD START 1045 MILLIBAR HIGH AND SUBSIDING
INFLUENCE SHOULD RESULT IN A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. MID LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS STRONG FROM THE NORTHWEST THOUGH TRENDING MORE
ANTICYCLONIC. CORE OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS SRN
WI WITH 925 TEMPS AOB -20C IN THE MORNING MODIFYING ONLY INTO THE
UPPER TEENS CELSIUS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE CHILLY SUPERBLEND
GUID SHOWING MANY HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS
SEEMS REASONABLE.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING AND LINGERING INFLUENCE OF LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL DOMINATE AT THE OUTSET...MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADING EAST FROM DAKOTAS/MN AND IA THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WAA REGIME SETS UP INITIALLY
WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING LESS PRODUCTIVE QPF THAN THE GFS. 850
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW CHANCES.
BEST DCVA PROGGD TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE AFTN INTO THE ERLY EVE
HRS.
MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LOW LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST THOUGH STILL LINGERING MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW. SO SMALL SUPERBLEND POPS CONTINUE.
TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RIDE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOME
PRETTY BIG TIMING DIFFERENCES. GFS BRINGS THIS SYSTEM IN MUCH
QUICKER DURING THE DAY WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS PRECIP OFF UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WENT WITH THE SUPERBLEND POPS....WHICH FAR
NOW ANYWAYS...FAVORS THE QUICKER GFS SOLUTION.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...LOW END VFR/HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH CLEAR SKIES ON BOTH SIDES
OF IT. EXPECTING THAT CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY BE VFR BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR...PARTICULARLY AT MSN WHERE THE BAND
IS CURRENTLY SET UP. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND TURN WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.
MARINE...OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND TURNING TO THE WEST TOWARD TOMORROW MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT...POSSIBLY A BIT LONGER IF THE WAVES STAY UP IN THE 3-5
FT RANGE TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BSH
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HALBACH
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR