Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 02/09/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
847 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
...WINDY/COLDER WITH VERY HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE...
LITTLE/NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
TONIGHT...THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT WAS CUTTING ACROSS NORTHEAST
FLORIDA TO THE BIG BEND AND NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AT 01Z. THE
LATEST HRRR MODEL PUSHES THE FRONT OFFSHORE THE TREASURE COAST A
LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY WAS GENERATING SOME LOW TOPPED CONVECTION. THE HRRR MODEL
SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTING EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. QUICK MOVEMENT WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO A TENTH OF
AN INCH BUT MOST PLACES WILL LIKELY ONLY GET A TRACE OF RAIN.
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AS STRONG COLD
ADVECTION SETS IN. IT WILL BE USUALLY BREEZY/GUSTY FOR AN
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD AS 925 MB WINDS ARE SHOWN INCREASING
TO AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE WARMER
GULF WATERS WILL GENERATE CONSIDERABLE STRATOCUMULUS SO EVEN AFTER
THE FRONT PASSES...THERE SHOULD BE PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL MITIGATE THE TEMPERATURE FALL AND LOWS SHOULD
BE IN THE LOWER 40S FAR NORTH TO AROUND 50 FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...
GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S PAST SUNRISE TUESDAY.
TUESDAY...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) A WINDY DAY WITH STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW PRODUCING 20-25 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH. A WIND
ADVISORY LOOKS LIKELY. THERE SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT OF STRATOCU
STREAMING EAST OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO SO SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO
CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S
ORLANDO NORTH AND LOWER 60S SOUTH...WHICH MAY BE GENEROUS DEPENDING
ON CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EXISTS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH KLEE-KDAB 03-04Z AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF KSUA
BY 07-08Z. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WAS NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
SHALLOW SURFACE BASED INVERSION DEVELOPED AFTER SUNSET. POST
FRONTAL WINDS WILL LEAD TO A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND IT WILL
BECOME GUSTY WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS REACHING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
AT TIMES. SOME SLIGHT DECREASE IN SPEEDS IS EXPECTED A LITTLE
BEFORE/AFTER SUNRISE AS THE LOW LEVELS COOL...THEN DEEPER MIXING
WILL KICK IN BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO
WESTERLY GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT/TUE...JUST PLAIN BAD BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. A
GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT 20-60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE WHILE STRONG
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST 0-20 NAUTICAL MILES. THE
INTRACOASTAL WATERS WILL BE VERY ROUGH. IF VENTURING INTO THE MARINE
ENVIRONMENT...MAKE SURE YOU HAVE AN EMERGENCY POSITION-INDICATING
RADIO BEACON (EPIRB).
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET
20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
&&
$$
FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX...WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
112 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
COAST MOVES TO THE NE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A DRY COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL USHER
IN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA (FA). THE RAIN WILL SLOWLY PUSH FURTHER EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NE WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL LOW. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH PUSHING THE RAIN
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE FA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. STRATUS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE FA THIS
MORNING. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW MOVES
FURTHER OFFSHORE. GUIDANCE INDICATES MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN FA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A
TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FA. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN IN THE 40S TO THE EAST WHERE OVERCAST SKIES PERSIST INTO
THE LATE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE CAN EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S.
AS THE LOW OFFSHORE DEEPENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS WILL TIGHTEN. THIS WILL PROMOTE BREEZY
CONDITIONS TODAY PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA. WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT OVER AREA LAKES. WILL MAINTAIN LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR
LAKE MARION.
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. A 25 KT LLJ
WILL PROMOTE SOME MIXING AND ALLOW FOR WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5
KTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE E CONUS MON/MON NT.
INDICATIONS OF A QUICK MOVING FRONT PASSING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. ACCEPTED MODEL CONSENSUS OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID TO LATE WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. MODELS MAINTAIN HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN WITH RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST. NW FLOW ALOFT
TO MAINTAIN A FEED OF COOL DRY AIR FOR OUR REGION. A REINFORCING
DRY COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES TUE/WED. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING MIN TEMPS
IN THE TEENS COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE WEEK. FOR NOW...USED GUIDANCE
BLEND...WHICH PROVIDE LOW 20S THU MORNING. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE PREMISE FOR SOME UPPER ENERGY AND ANOTHER FRONT LATE FRI
INTO SAT...THOUGH MOISTURE WOULD APPEAR TO BE LIMITED. WILL
MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH GUSTY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
STRATUS WILL LINGER OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FA THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS NE. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RANGE FROM
10 KTS TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. WIND
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE
WESTERLY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION. FOG NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MIXING.
GUSTY WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP LATE MONDAY MORNING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES MON THRU WED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ031-
036>038.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
104 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
COAST MOVES TO THE NE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A DRY COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL USHER
IN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA (FA). THE RAIN WILL SLOWLY PUSH FURTHER EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NE WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL LOW. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH PUSHING THE RAIN
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE FA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. STRATUS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE FA THIS
MORNING. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW MOVES
FURTHER OFFSHORE. GUIDANCE INDICATES MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN FA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A
TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FA. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN IN THE 40S TO THE EAST WHERE OVERCAST SKIES PERSIST INTO
THE LATE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE CAN EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S.
AS THE LOW OFFSHORE DEEPENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS WILL TIGHTEN. THIS WILL PROMOTE BREEZY
CONDITIONS TODAY PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA. WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT OVER AREA LAKES. WILL MAINTAIN LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR
LAKE MARION.
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. A 25 KT LLJ
WILL PROMOTE SOME MIXING AND ALLOW FOR WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5
KTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE E CONUS MON/MON NT.
INDICATIONS OF A QUICK MOVING FRONT PASSING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. ACCEPTED MODEL CONSENSUS OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID TO LATE WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. MODELS MAINTAIN HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN WITH RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST. NW FLOW
ALOFT TO MAINTAIN A FEED OF COOL DRY AIR FOR OUR REGION. A
REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES TUE/WED. SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING MIN TEMPS IN THE TEENS COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE WEEK. FOR
NOW...USED GUIDANCE BLEND...WHICH PROVIDE LOW 20S THU MORNING.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING FRI/SAT. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE
PREMISE FOR SOME UPPER ENERGY AND ANOTHER FRONT LATE FRI INTO
SAT...THOUGH MOISTURE WOULD APPEAR TO BE LIMITED.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH GUSTY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
STRATUS WILL LINGER OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FA THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS NE. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RANGE FROM
10 KTS TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. WIND
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE
WESTERLY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION. FOG NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MIXING.
GUSTY WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP LATE MONDAY MORNING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES MON THRU WED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ031-
036>038.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1019 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING TODAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO THE FAR EASTERN
MIDLANDS...MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A DRY COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL USHER IN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST WILL PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA (FA) THIS
MORNING. THE RAIN WILL SLOWLY PUSH FURTHER EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NE WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL LOW. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH PUSHING THE RAIN
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE FA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. STRATUS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE FA THIS
MORNING. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW MOVES
FURTHER OFFSHORE. GUIDANCE INDICATES MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN FA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLEARING SKIES. THE EXTREME
EASTERN FA SHOULD STAY IN THE 40S THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.
AS THE LOW OFFSHORE DEEPENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS WILL TIGHTEN. THIS WILL PROMOTE BREEZY
CONDITIONS TODAY PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA. WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT OVER AREA LAKES. WILL MAINTAIN LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR
LAKE MARION.
FAIR TONIGHT AS UPPER/SURFACE LOWS SHIFT WELL TO OUR NE. EXPECT
DIMINISHING WINDS IN THE EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE E CONUS MON/MON NT.
INDICATIONS OF A QUICK MOVING FRONT PASSING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. ACCEPTED MODEL CONSENSUS OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID TO LATE WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. MODELS MAINTAIN HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN WITH RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST. NW FLOW
ALOFT TO MAINTAIN A FEED OF COOL DRY AIR FOR OUR REGION. A
REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES TUE/WED. SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING MIN TEMPS IN THE TEENS COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE WEEK. FOR
NOW...USED GUIDANCE BLEND...WHICH PROVIDE LOW 20S THU MORNING.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING FRI/SAT. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE
PREMISE FOR SOME UPPER ENERGY AND ANOTHER FRONT LATE FRI INTO
SAT...THOUGH MOISTURE WOULD APPEAR TO BE LIMITED.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP STRATUS OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...HOWEVER RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST OF ALL TAF
SITES. STRATUS WILL LINGER OVER CAE/CUB THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND PUSH EAST OF OGB BY THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ARE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY AT OGB WHERE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RANGE FROM
10 KTS TO 15 KTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.
WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET WITH WINDS RELAXING A BIT
OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION. FOG NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MIXING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES MON THRU WED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ031-
036>038.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
102 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY. MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OBSERVATION TRENDS AND THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO
INDICATE NO SIGNIFICANT WINTER IMPACTS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WE ARE
CLOSELY MONITORING TRENDS BECAUSE OF THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT THE MODEL FORECAST OF INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY TRENDS INDICATE A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A
BAROCLINIC LEAF WAS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. RADAR DISPLAYED
RAIN MOVING INTO MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST SECTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WET-BULB COOLING HAS HELPED SUPPORT A LITTLE SLEET IN A FEW
LOCATIONS.
RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR INDICATE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS AND OBSERVATION TRENDS WITH SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SUPPORT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG LIFT AND COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW COULD HELP CAUSE SNOW TO MIX
WITH THE RAIN LATER TONIGHT. THE LATEST RAP TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS
INDICATE RAIN AND MOST SREF MEMBERS ALSO INDICATE RAIN.
BASED ON THE STRONG UPPER SYSTEM THERE IS STILL SOME POSSIBILITY
OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION LEADING TO HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WHICH WOULD LOWER THE FREEZING LEVEL RESULTING IN
MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW AS INDICATED BY SOME SREF MEMBERS AND THE
NAM. HOWEVER...OBSERVATION TRENDS AND THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR
CONTINUE TO INDICATE NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. THE WPC STILL KEEPS
ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WE HAVE HELD OFF
ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WILL CONTINUE LINE OF THOUGHT FROM END OF THE NEAR TERM INTO
SUNDAY. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO BE REASONABLY IN LINE WITH
THE NAM COLDER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
COASTAL LOW. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF MAINLY CHANCE POPS WITH
GENERALLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX FROM CAE EASTWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON SUNDAY. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE INCREASED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
WILL BE POSTED FOR LAKE MARION...ALLOWING LATER SHIFTS TO EXPAND
IF NECESSARY TO OTHER LAKES.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY BUT REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WHERE PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR.
A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT
A DEEP AND EXPANSIVE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DESCEND UPON THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND
INCREASED LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. UPPER LOW OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MID WEEK WITH HIGHS NEARLY 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE 40S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S. UPPER FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE ZONAL
BY THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT WARMING TREND TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE AS AXIS OF
PRECIPITATION REMAINS GENERALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND FAR
EASTERN MIDLANDS. LATEST HI-RES MODELS AND GUIDANCE GENERALLY KEEP
THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR
OGB WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE A LONGER PERIOD OF RAIN THAN THE REST OF
THE TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS START THE PERIOD AND GENERALLY
PREFERRED THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH THE EXCEPTION AGAIN BEING AT
OGB WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE IN BANDED
PRECIPITATION. DURING THE HEAVIER PERIODS OF RAIN COULD SEE SOME
SNOW MIXING IN SO WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR RASN AT OGB FROM
09Z-13Z. WARM GROUND TEMPS AND ABOVE FREEZING AIR TEMPS SHOULD
PREVENT MUCH IMPACT IF THERE IS A PERIOD OF SNOW. NAM GUIDANCE IS
OUTLIER AND HITS CIGS HARD ALL TERMINALS AND DISCOUNTED IN FAVOR
OF MORE CLUSTERED GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS LOW VFR CIGS THROUGH 15Z OR
SO THEN IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE COASTAL LOW LIFTS
AWAY FROM THE REGION.
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL BACK TO NORTHWESTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES MON THRU WED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE NORTH FORK OF THE EDISTO RIVER AT
ORANGEBURG.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR SCZ031-036>038.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
256 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
...Updated Short term and Long term discussions...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
An upper level disturbance that was located across the Northern
Plains at 12z Sunday will quickly move southeast across the
Central Plains through early this evening. As this upper level
system moves into the mid Mississippi valley overnight an upper
level ridge axis will begin to build slowly east into the western
United States. Subsidence developing in the wake of the upper
level trough overnight will yield clear/clearing skies, however
based on the expected winds overnight and the temperatures
forecast in the mixed layer near the surface will continue to
favor lows mainly in the mid 20s. Lighter wind speeds are expected
near the Colorado border overnight so lows will be cooler across
far western Kansas, especially west/northwest of Garden City.
Very Windy conditions will return to western Kansas during the
day on Monday based on the expected mean winds in the mixed layer
between 18z Monday and 00z Tuesday. At this time based on the NAM
and GFS the stronger winds will be located east of a Garden City
to Liberal Line. In this area sustained winds of 30 to 35 mph will
be possible at times, especially if the GFS verifies. As for
temperatures...based on the mixing depth late day along with the
temperatures at the level at 00z Tuesday the highs are expected to
vary from the mid to upper 30s in north central Kansas to the
upper 40s to near 50 in far southwest Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
A warming trend can then be expected for Tuesday and Wednesday
given the improving downslope flow forecast across far western
Kansas. Across southwest Kansas temperatures by Wednesday
afternoon should warm into the upper 60s to near 70 based on the
warming trend from the GFS in the 900mb to 850mb level.
Temperatures will also warm in north central and south central
Kansas but not as much with highs expected range from 50 to 55.
A northwest flow will persist across the Central Plains and
Northern Plains late week as an upper level ridge axis slowly
moves east across the western United States. A subtle upper level
disturbance embedded in this persistent northwesterly flow will
cross the central plains on Thursday and this will bring a weak
surface boundary back across western Kansas late week. Behind this
front some cooler air will return, but at this time it appears
what cooling that does occur on Thursday will be minor and mainly
confined to north central Kansas. Another front will move across
western Kansas over the weekend period as another upper level
disturbance crosses the Central Plains.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
Gusty northwest winds will range from 20 to near 25 knots this
afternoon based the mean mixed down winds from the RAP and GFS
this afternoon. The strongest afternoon winds will be in the Hays
area through 00z Monday. These gusty northwest winds will then
fall back into the 15 to 20 knot range after sunset. Mid to high
level clouds will be on the increase this afternoon as an upper
level disturbance crosses the Central Plains.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 25 43 25 54 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 22 44 24 55 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 25 48 30 62 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 25 48 26 61 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 25 38 25 46 / 0 0 0 0
P28 28 45 26 54 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1120 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
...Updated Synopsis and Aviation Discussion...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
At 12z Sunday a 500mb ridge axis was extended north from the
Coast of California to western British Columbia. A northwest flow
was evident across the Central United States and embedded in this
northwest flow was an upper level trough that was located over the
Northern Plains. This upper level trough was also associated with
the left exit region of a 250mb jet that stretched from western
Nebraska to north central Montana. A surface cold front at 12z
Sunday extended from the panhandle of Texas to northwest Missouri.
850mb temperatures north of this cold front ranged from +4C at
Dodge City to +1C at North Platte. Rapid City reported at 850mb
temperature of -2c.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
The biggest challenge will be wind speed magnitude today. An
intense storm system in the larger scale northwest flow pattern
will dive southeast from the Northern Plains into the Midwest
region today. The 800-700mb layer height gradient will increase
quite a bit this afternoon between the the trough axis across Iowa
and an upper high over the Desert Southwest/California. 00z GFS
model shows mean 800-700mb winds increasing from 40-45 knots at
15z across west-central KS to 60-70 knots by 21z! While we will
not mix to this pressure level, we will still see plenty of
momentum within the mixed layer this afternoon supporting surface
winds around 30 knots sustained across portions of west central
KS...and in the 25-30 knot range over much of the rest of west
central and southwest Kansas. In the grids, the WRF-ARW 10-meter
winds match the GFS kinematics fairly well, so the official wind
forecast will reflect very much the WRF-ARW winds with even a bit
of a bump up from that a few knots. As far as temperatures go,
much of this colder airmass coming in behind this trough/front
passage will be downslope modified, so it will not impact
temperatures much at all.
.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
The intense lower-mid tropospheric pressure gradient will persist
across western/central KS on Monday with similar winds forecast as
Sunday over the same general areas. We will finally see the
gradient relax some by Tuesday with slightly warmer downslope air
beginning to move in. Far southwest KS will see the greatest
benefit from the downslope component with highs Tuesday in the
lower 60s from Elkhart to Liberal, whereas mid to upper 40s are
forecast up around Hays. This southwest to northeast temperature
gradient will persist through the week as we remain in a northwest
flow regime. By late in the week, the forecast becomes a bit more
problematic as any wiggle in the northwest flow pattern will bring
some colder in from the northeast (quasi-stationary backdoor cold
front). We could see some impressive temperature gradients across
Kansas late in the week going into the weekend with far southwest
Kansas seeing upper 60s to lower 70s whereas portions of
northern/central KS remain in the 30s and 40s. We will need to see
a breakdown of the northwest flow pattern before we see any
meaningful chances for precipitation, which wouldn`t be until
14-15 February at the earliest.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
Gusty northwest winds will range from 20 to near 25 knots this
afternoon based the mean mixed down winds from the RAP and GFS
this afternoon. The strongest afternoon winds will be in the Hays
area through 00z Monday. These gusty northwest winds will then
fall back into the 15 to 20 knot range after sunset. Mid to high
level clouds will be on the increase this afternoon as an upper
level disturbance crosses the Central Plains.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 48 25 43 25 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 46 22 43 24 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 49 25 48 30 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 51 25 47 26 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 42 25 37 25 / 0 0 0 0
P28 55 28 44 26 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1027 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. VERY COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT THE
END OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
NORTHEAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
SNOW CONTINUES TO WRAP IN FM THE EAST WITH MAIN LOW CONTINUING TO
CHUG TWD NEWFOUNDLAND. STEADY SNOW CONTS ACRS DOWNEAST AND THE
BANGOR REGION WHILE SNOW IS NOW BEGINNING AGAIN IN COASTAL HANCOCK
AND WASHINGTON CNTYS. SNOW IS TAKING ITS SWEET TIME TO PROGRESS
INTO NRN ZONES, THUS HV BACKED OFF ON START TIME OF ADVISORY IN NW
AROOSTOOK AND NRN SOMERSET UNTIL AFT 06Z TONIGHT. WL BE HARD-
PRESSED TO SEE SNOW WORK INTO THE CARIBOU BY MIDNIGHT BASED ON 00Z
RAOB OUT OF CAR WITH EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
DWPT DEPRESSIONS RUNNING ARND 12F AT FVE AND LIKELY EVEN HIGHER
OVR THE ALLAGASH. QUICK UPDATE TO BRING HRLY T/TD VALUES IN LINE
WITH LATEST OBS.
PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW CHANCES THIS TERM. THE MAIN THING IN
QUESTION IS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. TOUGH FORECAST COMING UP.
LATEST 20Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD INTENSE SFC LOW SE OF NOVA SCOTIA
BOMBING OUT AND FILLING. REGIONAL RADAR, INCLUDING THE LATEST MRMS
SHOWED WESTERN EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD MOVING ONTO THE COAST AND
INTO PORTIONS OF INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE. THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE INCLUDING
THE RAP AND HRRR 3KM WERE DOING WELL W/THE PLACEMENT PER THE LATEST
RADAR ALONG W/THE 12Z REGIONAL CANADIAN GEM. 12Z UA ANALYSIS SHOWED
80-100 KT JET DIVING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW OVER GREAT LAKES WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER TROF TO SHARPEN AS IT SWINGS E. THE
TIMING FOR SNOW FURTHER N HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK AS WELL AS CUTTING
BACK ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BY AN INCH OR TWO. THE GUSTY NNE WINDS
WILL DROP OFF LATER THIS EVENING AS THE INTENSE LOW PULLS AWAY.
LLVL CONVERGENCE IN CONJUNCTION W/A DEVELOPING UPPER FRONT WILL
LEAD TO AN AREA OF SNOW ACROSS THE DOWNEAST THIS EVENING W/SOME
BRIEF HEAVY BANDS. SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING
THE MT. KATAHDIN REGIONAL LATER THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT LIFTS
NORTH. THE SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REST OF NORTHERN MAINE BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. DESPITE LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP FORECAST
TO BE 0.25 TO 0.50 FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, HIGHER SNOW
RATIOS(16-19:1) WILL LEAD TO SOME HIGHER SNOW TOTALS W/THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLUFFY SNOW. SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT A BRIEF
PERIOD DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH WHICH WOULD ENHANCE SNOWFALL FOR A
TIME. OVERALL ATTM, LOOKING FOR HIGHEST TOTALS(4-8 INCHES) ACROSS
DOWNEAST AND EASTERN SECTIONS AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS SUCH AS
PORTIONS OF PISCATAQUIS COUNTY AND MT. KATAHDIN. FURTHER N ACROSS
HOULTON ON UP THROUGH CARIBOU INTO THE ST. JOHN VALLEY, SNOWFALL
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 3-6 INCH RANGE.
SNOW WILL END ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS BY LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON AND LINGER LONGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS IN
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THAT A NNE WIND ACROSS THE ST. JOHN
VALLEY HAS HISTORY OF LEADING TO SOME UPSLOPE AND FORECAST QPF OF
AROUND 0.25", DECIDED TO ADD THE ST. JOHN VALLEY AND NORTHERN
SOMERSET INTO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY W/SNOW FORECAST OF UP TO
4 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL W/20S EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NORTHEAST AS WE GO INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD. MOISTURE WITHIN
THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WEAK SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SMALL AREAS
OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL STAY MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH. ONE LOW WILL
SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER SMALL LOW
SLIDING TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY. THE SMALL LOW ON THURSDAY MAY
TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST POSSIBLY GIVING A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS. OTHERWISE, ONLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AT THE END OF THE
WEEK WILL BRING VERY COLD AIR TO THE REGION. A SMALL LOW WHISKING OUT
TO SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MAY PRODUCE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION, AND POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW ALONG THE COAST. OTHERWISE, MAINLY DRY AND VERY COLD WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A NORTHWEST BREEZE SATURDAY AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY MAY REQUIRE WIND CHILL HEADLINES OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES SOUTH TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON
MONDAY AS A WEAK LOW MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS
CURRENTLY DIFFER WITH THE GFS BRINGING THIS LOW IN MONDAY AND THE
ECMWF BRINGING IT IN LATE TUESDAY. FOR NOW WILL BRING LOW CHANCES
FOR SNOW LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH HUL/PQI/CAR BECOMING MVFR
AFTER 03Z WITH FVE HOLDING ONTO VFR RESTRICTIONS UNTIL 08Z. IFR
SNOW EXPECTED AT HUL AT 03Z, PQI AT 05Z, CAR AT 06Z AND FVE AT
09Z. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT CAR, PQI AND HUL BY 22Z TUE.
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF BGR AND BHB WILL SEE IFR IN SN AND BLSN
THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR.
SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH VARIABLE MID AND LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR ALONG THE COAST IN
A PERIOD OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH VFR TO
OCCASIONALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER, THERE IS A
SMALL POSSIBILITY LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MAY LOWER CONDITIONS TO
MVFR OR BRIEFLY IFR DOWNEAST ON SATURDAY IN LIGHT SNOW IF IT
TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HV ALLOWED GALE WARNING TO EXPIRE FOR INTRACOASTAL
WATERS AT 03Z AND EXTENDED FOR COASTAL WATERS THRU 05Z AS WINDS
RMN BTWN 35-40KTS. HV ISSUED SCA FOR INTRACOASTAL WATERS THRU 18Z
TUESDAY AND AS GALE WARNING EXPIRES FOR RMNG ZONES WL NEED TO
ISSUE SCA THRU THE DAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DROP BACK TO 8-10 FEET BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A SWELL GENERATION IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE ON TUESDAY W/PERIODS OF 10-13 SECONDS.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH SCA LATE THURSDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA ON FRIDAY. AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED
SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY AND FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES MAY NEED
TO BE ISSUED OVER THE WEEKEND AS VERY COLD AIR MOVES OVER THE
WATERS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN EXTRA-TROPICAL STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1-1.5 FT IS EXPECTED LATER
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. HIGH TIDE TONIGHT IS AROUND 11
PM AND AROUND 11 AM ON TUESDAY. TIDES ARE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED SURGE AND THE WAVES OF 10-13 FT COULD LEAD TO SOME
SPLASH-OVER AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE MORE SO ON TUESDAY.
COLLABORATED W/GYX AND DECIDED TO GO W/A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ002-
004>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ001-003.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ052.
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FARRAR/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/HEWITT/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/HEWITT/BLOOMER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1007 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW
WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE TOWARD CAPE COD ON
TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION.
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND EXIT BY FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW HAS FORMED OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BASICALLY FROM PORTLAND AND POINTS
NORTH AND EAST PER LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. EXPECT THIS BAND TO
CONTINUE IN THIS REGION UNTIL ABOUT 04Z OR 05Z BEFORE WEAKENING
WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE LAST HRRR MODEL. WILL MONITOR SOME OF
THESE AREAS FOR HIGH SNOWFALL TOTALS AND POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL
WARNINGS OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
THE SNOW HAS RETROGRADED ALL THE WAY TO THE VT BORDER WITH SNOW
NOW BEGIN REPORTED IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT PERHAPS CENTRAL SOMERSET
COUNTY.
PREV DISC... HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND LATEST SUITE OF MESOSCALE MODELS. SNOW HAS FINALLY SPREAD INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND CENTRAL MAINE THIS EVENING AS
BANDS OF MOISTURE CONTINUE TO ROTATE WESTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE INTENSE OFFSHORE LOW. INVERTED TROUGH ALSO ACTING AS A
FOCUS FOR THE PRECIP THIS EVENING.
DRY AIR IS DIMINISHING THE PRECIP FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH DEW
POINTS VERY LOW AT THIS HOUR AT THE SURFACE. HAVE ADJUSTED AREA
FOR THE REGION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO BE
FOCUSED OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
PREV DISC...
IMPRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OUT TO SEA CONTINUES TO LOFT
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND BY
TOMORROW. THESE SURFACE REFLECTIONS AS WELL AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVERHEAD WAS PROVIDING ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION.
EARLIER THIS MORNING THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAD A HARD TIME
MOVING NORTHWARD DUE TO EVAPORATION ON THE NORTHERN EDGE. A VERY
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE KEPT ANY SNOW FROM FALLING UNTIL ABOUT 3-4
HOURS AGO. SEVERAL SNOW BANDS HAVE NOW EMERGED ALONG PETTERSSON
FRONTOGENESIS MAXIMA. ONE BAND IN PARTICULAR IS CURRENTLY ROTATING
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE NH/ME COASTLINE.
TO THE NORTH...ZERO OR SUBZERO DEW POINTS PERSIST WITH NORTH
WINDS CONTINUALLY DRAWING DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD. THIS FACT WILL
KEEP SNOW EVAPORATING INTO VIRGA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS THE
NORTH BEFORE TOP DOWN SATURATION OCCURS.
WINDS ARE GUSTING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT BEFORE THEY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT.
THIS COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY FLUFFY SNOW WILL CREATE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. DUE TO THIS REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND TOMORROW MORNING ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED DOWN THE COAST TO
INCLUDE PORTLAND AND ALSO SOUTHWEST AND INLAND TO INCLUDE
ROCKINGHAM COUNTY AND E HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO THE
UPPER TEENS SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO HOVER IN THE 6-8 INCH RANGE IN WARNED
AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS UNDER A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. MOST OF THE SNOW OVER SOUTHERN NH AND SW
MAINE WILL FALL BEFORE 6 AM TUESDAY. AS THE BAND FILLS IN
DOWNEAST... MORE LOCATIONS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED. LOOKING AT THE
FLUFF FACTOR WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS
REQUIRING A WARNING BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE.
TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO UPPER 20S SOUTH.
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY MID MORNING ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
STRONGEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY EAST. RESIDUAL
TROUGHINESS WILL KEEP FLURRIES AROUND WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS LINGERING FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS. TOMORROW NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT. CLOUDS STICK AROUND WITH
NO FRONT TO SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROF SLOWLY PIVOTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WED AND
THU AND EXITS THE REGION ON FRI. WITH THE UPPER TROF THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY SO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIKELY FOR THE MOUNTAINS. ON FRI THE TROF EXITS BUT THEN IT WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT AS A COLD POLAR UPPER
VORTEX DROPS INTO NEW ENGLAND BRINGING BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON WITH GUSTY WINDS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND BITTER
COLD CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STAYED CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND MODELS FOR TEMPS BUT RAISED POPS
FOR WED/THU PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO GRADUALLY LOWERING
CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE TODAY. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND GUST TO 25 OR 30 KT NEAR THE COAST WITH LOWER SPEEDS
INLAND...BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR TUESDAY IN SNOW
SHOWERS.
LONG TERM...UPPER TROF PIVOTS OVER THE REGION THRU THU...WITH
AREAS OF SHSN LIKELY. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHSN...AND THEY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TERMINAL. STRONG COLD FNT
APPROACHES THE AREA FRI WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH TONIGHT. GALES
REMAIN IN PLACE AS OCEAN LOW PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
CONDITIONS DROP BELOW GALES AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH LINGERING SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THE BAYS FOR TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS APPEARS LIKELY THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR WED AND THU WITH SEAS
REMAINING ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS BUT SLOWLY SUBSIDING. A
STRONG COLD FNT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A 1 TO 1.5 FOOT STORM SURGE WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES AND SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL
YORK...ROCKINGHAM...AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENINGS HIGH
TIDE AROUND 11 PM. FOR TOMORROW MORNINGS HIGH TIDE AROUND 11
AM...A HIGHER TIDE REQUIRED A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING. BOTH OF THESE
TIDES MAY LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR SPLASH-OVER ALONG THE
COASTS OF YORK...ROCKINGHAM...AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES. SEE CFWGYX
FOR MORE INFORMATION. WAVE PERIODS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT AROUND 13
SECONDS TOMORROW MORNING...WITH HIGH ENERGY SWELLS STRIKING THE
COASTLINE.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
012>014-018>022-025>028.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-
024.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ003>011-
015.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ001-002.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ012>014.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
919 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW
WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE TOWARD CAPE COD ON
TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION.
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND EXIT BY FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW HAS FORMED OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BASICALLY FROM PORTLAND AND POINTS
NORTH AND EAST PER LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. EXPECT THIS BAND TO
CONTINUE IN THIS REGION FOR A A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING WHICH
IS IN LINE WITH THE LAST HRRR MODEL. WILL MONITOR SOME OF THESE
AREAS FOR HIGH SNOWFALL TOTALS AND POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL WARNINGS
OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
THE SNOW HAS RETROGRADED ALL THE WAY TO THE VT BORDER WITH SNOW
NOW BEGIN REPORTED IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT PERHAPS CENTRAL SOMERSET
COUNTY.
PREV DISC... HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND LATEST SUITE OF MESOSCALE MODELS. SNOW HAS FINALLY SPREAD INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND CENTRAL MAINE THIS EVENING AS
BANDS OF MOISTURE CONTINUE TO ROTATE WESTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE INTENSE OFFSHORE LOW. INVERTED TROUGH ALSO ACTING AS A
FOCUS FOR THE PRECIP THIS EVENING.
DRY AIR IS DIMINISHING THE PRECIP FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH DEW
POINTS VERY LOW AT THIS HOUR AT THE SURFACE. HAVE ADJUSTED AREA
FOR THE REGION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO BE
FOCUSED OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
PREV DISC...
IMPRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OUT TO SEA CONTINUES TO LOFT
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND BY
TOMORROW. THESE SURFACE REFLECTIONS AS WELL AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVERHEAD WAS PROVIDING ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION.
EARLIER THIS MORNING THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAD A HARD TIME
MOVING NORTHWARD DUE TO EVAPORATION ON THE NORTHERN EDGE. A VERY
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE KEPT ANY SNOW FROM FALLING UNTIL ABOUT 3-4
HOURS AGO. SEVERAL SNOW BANDS HAVE NOW EMERGED ALONG PETTERSSON
FRONTOGENESIS MAXIMA. ONE BAND IN PARTICULAR IS CURRENTLY ROTATING
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE NH/ME COASTLINE.
TO THE NORTH...ZERO OR SUBZERO DEW POINTS PERSIST WITH NORTH
WINDS CONTINUALLY DRAWING DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD. THIS FACT WILL
KEEP SNOW EVAPORATING INTO VIRGA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS THE
NORTH BEFORE TOP DOWN SATURATION OCCURS.
WINDS ARE GUSTING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT BEFORE THEY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT.
THIS COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY FLUFFY SNOW WILL CREATE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. DUE TO THIS REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND TOMORROW MORNING ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED DOWN THE COAST TO
INCLUDE PORTLAND AND ALSO SOUTHWEST AND INLAND TO INCLUDE
ROCKINGHAM COUNTY AND E HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO THE
UPPER TEENS SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO HOVER IN THE 6-8 INCH RANGE IN WARNED
AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS UNDER A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. MOST OF THE SNOW OVER SOUTHERN NH AND SW
MAINE WILL FALL BEFORE 6 AM TUESDAY. AS THE BAND FILLS IN
DOWNEAST... MORE LOCATIONS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED. LOOKING AT THE
FLUFF FACTOR WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS
REQUIRING A WARNING BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE.
TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO UPPER 20S SOUTH.
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY MID MORNING ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
STRONGEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY EAST. RESIDUAL
TROUGHINESS WILL KEEP FLURRIES AROUND WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS LINGERING FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS. TOMORROW NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT. CLOUDS STICK AROUND WITH
NO FRONT TO SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROF SLOWLY PIVOTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WED AND
THU AND EXITS THE REGION ON FRI. WITH THE UPPER TROF THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY SO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIKELY FOR THE MOUNTAINS. ON FRI THE TROF EXITS BUT THEN IT WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT AS A COLD POLAR UPPER
VORTEX DROPS INTO NEW ENGLAND BRINGING BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON WITH GUSTY WINDS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND BITTER
COLD CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STAYED CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND MODELS FOR TEMPS BUT RAISED POPS
FOR WED/THU PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO GRADUALLY LOWERING
CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE TODAY. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND GUST TO 25 OR 30 KT NEAR THE COAST WITH LOWER SPEEDS
INLAND...BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR TUESDAY IN SNOW
SHOWERS.
LONG TERM...UPPER TROF PIVOTS OVER THE REGION THRU THU...WITH
AREAS OF SHSN LIKELY. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHSN...AND THEY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TERMINAL. STRONG COLD FNT
APPROACHES THE AREA FRI WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH TONIGHT. GALES
REMAIN IN PLACE AS OCEAN LOW PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
CONDITIONS DROP BELOW GALES AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH LINGERING SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THE BAYS FOR TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS APPEARS LIKELY THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR WED AND THU WITH SEAS
REMAINING ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS BUT SLOWLY SUBSIDING. A
STRONG COLD FNT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A 1 TO 1.5 FOOT STORM SURGE WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES AND SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL
YORK...ROCKINGHAM...AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENINGS HIGH
TIDE AROUND 11 PM. FOR TOMORROW MORNINGS HIGH TIDE AROUND 11
AM...A HIGHER TIDE REQUIRED A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING. BOTH OF THESE
TIDES MAY LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR SPLASH-OVER ALONG THE
COASTS OF YORK...ROCKINGHAM...AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES. SEE CFWGYX
FOR MORE INFORMATION. WAVE PERIODS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT AROUND 13
SECONDS TOMORROW MORNING...WITH HIGH ENERGY SWELLS STRIKING THE
COASTLINE.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
012>014-018>022-025>028.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-
024.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ003>011-
015.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ001-002.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ012>014.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
652 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. VERY COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT THE
END OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
NORTHEAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
7 PM UPDATE...
WRAPPED UP SFC LOW IS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS EVNG WITH MAIN UPR
LOW ROTATING TWD NEWFOUNDLAND AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER UPR LOW IS
DIVING THRU THE OH VLY AND WL EVENTUALLY BE A PLAYER IN OUR WX
TOMORROW. SNOWBAND AFFECTING DOWNEAST SXNS WITH MODERATE SNOW IS
HVG A HARD TIME MAKING MUCH PROGRESS NORTH AS IT BUMPS UP AGAIN
DRY AIRMASS COURTESY OF RIDGE AXIS. HV DELAYED START TIME OF SNOW
BY A COUPLE OF HRS TONIGHT ACRS NRN ZONES WITH NRN AROOSTOOK CNTY
NOT EXPECTING TO SEE SNOW UNTIL AFT 07Z.
QUESTION CNTRS ARND HOW MUCH SNOW WL OCCUR OVR THE FAR NORTH
TONIGHT COURTESY OF COASTAL LOW AND HOW MUCH OCCURS WITH UPR
SYSTEM CROSSING THE CWA TOMORROW. 18Z NAM HAS BACKED OFF VRY
SLIGHTLY ON TIMING OF SNOW MAKING PROGRESS TO THE NORTH BUT WL
MAKE LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCUMS WITH THIS UPDATE. ONLY CHG THIS
UPDATE WAS TO DELAY POPS BY AN HR OR TWO.
PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW CHANCES THIS TERM. THE MAIN THING IN
QUESTION IS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. TOUGH FORECAST COMING UP.
LATEST 20Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD INTENSE SFC LOW SE OF NOVA SCOTIA
BOMBING OUT AND FILLING. REGIONAL RADAR, INCLUDING THE LATEST MRMS
SHOWED WESTERN EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD MOVING ONTO THE COAST AND
INTO PORTIONS OF INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE. THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE INCLUDING
THE RAP AND HRRR 3KM WERE DOING WELL W/THE PLACEMENT PER THE LATEST
RADAR ALONG W/THE 12Z REGIONAL CANADIAN GEM. 12Z UA ANALYSIS SHOWED
80-100 KT JET DIVING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW OVER GREAT LAKES WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER TROF TO SHARPEN AS IT SWINGS E. THE
TIMING FOR SNOW FURTHER N HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK AS WELL AS CUTTING
BACK ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BY AN INCH OR TWO. THE GUSTY NNE WINDS
WILL DROP OFF LATER THIS EVENING AS THE INTENSE LOW PULLS AWAY.
LLVL CONVERGENCE IN CONJUNCTION W/A DEVELOPING UPPER FRONT WILL
LEAD TO AN AREA OF SNOW ACROSS THE DOWNEAST THIS EVENING W/SOME
BRIEF HEAVY BANDS. SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING
THE MT. KATAHDIN REGIONAL LATER THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT LIFTS
NORTH. THE SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REST OF NORTHERN MAINE BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. DESPITE LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP FORECAST
TO BE 0.25 TO 0.50 FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, HIGHER SNOW
RATIOS(16-19:1) WILL LEAD TO SOME HIGHER SNOW TOTALS W/THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLUFFY SNOW. SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT A BRIEF
PERIOD DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH WHICH WOULD ENHANCE SNOWFALL FOR A
TIME. OVERALL ATTM, LOOKING FOR HIGHEST TOTALS(4-8 INCHES) ACROSS
DOWNEAST AND EASTERN SECTIONS AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS SUCH AS
PORTIONS OF PISCATAQUIS COUNTY AND MT. KATAHDIN. FURTHER N ACROSS
HOULTON ON UP THROUGH CARIBOU INTO THE ST. JOHN VALLEY, SNOWFALL
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 3-6 INCH RANGE.
SNOW WILL END ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS BY LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON AND LINGER LONGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS IN
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THAT A NNE WIND ACROSS THE ST. JOHN
VALLEY HAS HISTORY OF LEADING TO SOME UPSLOPE AND FORECAST QPF OF
AROUND 0.25", DECIDED TO ADD THE ST. JOHN VALLEY AND NORTHERN
SOMERSET INTO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY W/SNOW FORECAST OF UP TO
4 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL W/20S EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NORTHEAST AS WE GO INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD. MOISTURE WITHIN
THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WEAK SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SMALL AREAS
OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL STAY MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH. ONE LOW WILL
SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER SMALL LOW
SLIDING TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY. THE SMALL LOW ON THURSDAY MAY
TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST POSSIBLY GIVING A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS. OTHERWISE, ONLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AT THE END OF THE
WEEK WILL BRING VERY COLD AIR TO THE REGION. A SMALL LOW WHISKING OUT
TO SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MAY PRODUCE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION, AND POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW ALONG THE COAST. OTHERWISE, MAINLY DRY AND VERY COLD WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A NORTHWEST BREEZE SATURDAY AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY MAY REQUIRE WIND CHILL HEADLINES OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES SOUTH TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON
MONDAY AS A WEAK LOW MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS
CURRENTLY DIFFER WITH THE GFS BRINGING THIS LOW IN MONDAY AND THE
ECMWF BRINGING IT IN LATE TUESDAY. FOR NOW WILL BRING LOW CHANCES
FOR SNOW LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH HUL/PQI/CAR BECOMING MVFR
AFTER 03Z WITH FVE HOLDING ONTO VFR RESTRICTIONS UNTIL 08Z. IFR
SNOW EXPECTED AT HUL AT 03Z, PQI AT 05Z, CAR AT 06Z AND FVE AT
09Z. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT CAR, PQI AND HUL BY 22Z TUE.
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF BGR AND BHB WILL SEE IFR IN SN AND BLSN
THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR.
SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH VARIABLE MID AND LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR ALONG THE COAST IN
A PERIOD OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH VFR TO
OCCASIONALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER, THERE IS A
SMALL POSSIBILITY LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MAY LOWER CONDITIONS TO
MVFR OR BRIEFLY IFR DOWNEAST ON SATURDAY IN LIGHT SNOW IF IT
TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WARNING STAYS UP THROUGH 10 PM. GUSTS AVERAGING 35
TO 40 KTS ATTM. BUOYS REPORTED 45+ KTS EARLIER TODAY BUT AS THE
LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY, THE GRADIENT WILL LOOSEN W/WINDS
DROPPING OFF BELOW 35 KTS LATER THIS EVENING. THE EVENING CREW
WILL MOST LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THINGS BACK TO SCA LEVELS. WIND
DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE NNW OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 11 TO 14 FOOT RANGE THIS EVENING
AND THEN ARE FORECAST TO DROP BACK BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A
SWELL GENERATION IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY W/PERIODS OF 10-13 SECONDS.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH SCA LATE THURSDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA ON FRIDAY. AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED
SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY AND FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES MAY NEED
TO BE ISSUED OVER THE WEEKEND AS VERY COLD AIR MOVES OVER THE
WATERS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN EXTRA-TROPICAL STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1-1.5 FT IS EXPECTED LATER
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. HIGH TIDE TONIGHT IS AROUND 11
PM AND AROUND 11 AM ON TUESDAY. TIDES ARE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED SURGE AND THE WAVES OF 10-13 FT COULD LEAD TO SOME
SPLASH-OVER AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE MORE SO ON TUESDAY.
COLLABORATED W/GYX AND DECIDED TO GO W/A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ002-
004>006-010.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR MEZ001-003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ011-
015>017-029>032.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FARRAR/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/HEWITT/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/HEWITT/BLOOMER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
120 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT...THEN INTENSIFIES
WHILE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC HIGH WAS SLOWLY LIFTING NE OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AS THE
COASTAL TROUGH WAS BECOMING SHARPER OFF THE CAROLINA COAST FROM
HATTERAS SOUTH. THE SURFACE LOW WAS STARTING TO DEEPEN OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST. THE SHARPENING COASTAL TROUGH HAS HELPED TO
INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN SC AND THIS LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST NC. MANY OF THE HIGH RES MODELS INCLUDING
THE HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS THAN THE SYNOPTIC
MODELS. APPEARS AS THOUGH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIFT RAPIDLY
NORTH INTO NC BUT THEN SLOW AS IT RUNS INTO THE DRIER SFC HIGH
OVER EASTERN VA. THIS SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY LIMITED TO
NORTHEAST NC AND SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS DURING THE PRE AND POST
DAWN HOURS. BASED ON TRENDS IN THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR NORTHEAST NC AND SOUTHEAST VA OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TEMPERATURES AS THE PRECIP MOVES
NORTH, BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THE CLOUD SHIELD AHEAD OF THE RAIN
IS PROMOTING AN INCREASE IN TEMPS KEEPING THINGS ABOVE FREEZING.
LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF NORTHEAST NC AND SOUTHEAST VA REMAIN DRY.
CLOUDS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME PUSHING INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL VA SO
WITH MORE CLEAR SKIES INLAND STILL EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER20S INLAND AND EASTERN SHORE WITH MID 30S AND EVEN SOME
UPPER 30S IN AREAS OF CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY TO SUNDAY / SUNDAY NIGHTS FCST WILL BE THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST (ALONG THE GULF STREAM WALL) AND JUST
HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE PCPN SHIELD CAN GET AS THE STORM
RAPIDLY DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NE. LATEST HIGH RES MODELS BRING
MEASURABLE PRECIP BACK ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE TIDEWATER AND
SOME AS FAR WEST AS THE I95 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF RICHMOND. THAT SAID
THE NAM/GFS KEEPS MEASURABLE PCPN (RAIN) CONFINED TO THE COAST. A
50 MILE DIFFERENCE IN STORM TRACK (EITHER DIRECTION) WOULD MAKE
FOR A DIFFERENT SCENARIO.
EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST WITH NE-N WINDS INCREASING
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED 20-30 MPH ALONG DELMARVA AND
25-35 MPH WITH 40-50 MPH GUSTS FROM VA BEACH ON SOUTH. HIGHS TEMPS 45-50
COOLEST ALONG THE COASTAL AND WARMEST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE SOME
PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE.
LTST DATA SUPPORTS ENOUGH COLD AIR WHEN COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL
WRAP AROUND MSTR FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LOWER MD ERN
SHORE BEFORE PCPN ENDS AROUND 12Z MON (NO ACCUMULATION).
OTHERWISE...KEPT RAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS. DRY WEST. LOWS
SUN NIGHT UPPER 20S- LOWER 30S..EXCEPT M30S SERN COASTAL AREAS.
12Z DATA SUPPORTS A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING OCEAN
LOW MON MORNING. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW MON AFTERNOON
WITH ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE MOISTURE TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AFTER 18Z. THUS...KEPT MON MORN DRY BUT MAINTAINED CHC POPS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILES WARM ENOUGH FOR THIS PCPN TO BE
RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS MON 45-50.
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEEPENS AS IT EXITS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE FROM YET ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM PROGGED TO DIVE SE ACROSS THE REGION TUE. THIS TO
CARVE OUT A RATHER DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN US. CAA ALONG WITH
FALLING THICKNESSES RESULTS IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS MIXING WITH THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE MORNING. LOWS MON
NIGHT 30-35. SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMLS PSBL (<1 INCH) ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT MAINLY NW OF RIC WHERE LIKELY POPS WILL BE. A
DUSTING/COATING PSBL AS FAR SOUTH AS A FVX- RIC-SBY LINE. WENT
WITH MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS TUE DUE TO THE COLD AIR
ALOFT DESPITE HIGHS IN THE M-U30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NE CONUS THRU
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH MAY SPARK ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FA TUES NIGHT AND WED. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHC POPS. DRY WX
IS GENERALLY EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WED-SAT MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS THRU
THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CSTS TODAY INTO
MON MORNG. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER ACRS THE AREA TODAY AND
TNGT...AS THE LO MOVES NE OFF THE CST. EXPECT LWR AC AND SC AT
ECG/ORF AND POSSIBLY PHF DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE BEST
CHC FOR RAIN AT ECG AND ORF THIS AFTN INTO TNGT. ALSO...UPR 20S
TO LWR 30S KT WIND GUSTS EXPECTED THIS AFTN INTO TNGT AT
ECG/ORF...AS THE DEEPENING LO CAUSES THE PRES GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN
OVER THE AREA.
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE MON THRU EARLY WED...AS
AN UPR LO MOVES FM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC STATES.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE AREA ESPLY FOR
RIC/SBY. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDS MAY OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING ROUGH WEATHER
BACK TO THE MARINE AREA ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE BOMBS OFF THE NC
COAST BY LATE SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY HEADS NE AND WELL OUT TO SEA ON
MONDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A QUICK AND SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN WINDS/SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING THRU SUNDAY EVENING...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA THRU THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GALE WATCH
HAD BEEN UP GRADED TO GALE WARNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND...CURRITUCK SOUND...AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY.
SINCE START TIME OF GALE CONDITIONS IS NOW INSIDE 24 HRS WENT AHEAD
AND BEGAN GALE WARNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR GUSTS UP TO 40-45 KT
(HIGHEST SOUTHERNMOST WATERS). SOLID SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE AREA AS WELL...AND THUS HAVE
RAISED SCA FLAGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE AREA EXCEPT THE
RIVERS (THE LOWER JAMES IS IN THE SCA). HAVE SEAS INCREASING TO 8-14
FT (HIGHEST SOUTH) BY SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR SHORE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 8+ FT FROM VA BEACH SOUTH SO HAVE ALSO ISSUED HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN BEACHES. HAVE WAVES REACHING 5-6 FT AT THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY LATE SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING MONDAY
MORNING...BUT SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...AND SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR
DETAILS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
VIRGINIA BEACH AND COASTAL CURRITUCK COUNTY FOR SUN AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. 30 KT NE/NNE WINDS(~40KT GUSTS) WILL BUILD SEAS
TO 9-10FT NEARSHORE. HIGH SEAS AND PROLONGED NE FLOW MAY CAUSE
BEACH EROSION AND POSSIBLY SOME DUNE EROSION. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE DURING HIGH
TIDES. EXPECT COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES A FEW HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER
THE HIGH TIDES BETWEEN 7-8PM SUNDAY AND 7-8AM MONDAY.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR
NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
MONDAY FOR ANZ631-632-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
MONDAY FOR ANZ630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR/JAO
SHORT TERM...MPR/JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM/TMG
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1244 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1053 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
THE ONSHORE FLOW AT ISQ AND SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 30S HAVE RESULTED
IN OBSERVATIONS OF VERY WET SNOW AND EVEN SOME RAIN MIXING IN. HAVE
UPDATED THE FCST FOR A FEW LOCATIONS TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN/SNOW. ALSO REDUCED THE SLR AND RESULTANT SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG
MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. MAY STILL BE TOO HIGH. WILL
CONTINUE TO RE-EVALUATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
THE WEST COAST RESULTING NW FLOW FROM WRN CANADA INTO THE PLAINS. A
MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WAS SLIDING SE INTO NRN MN.
LIGHT SNOW OVER UPPER MI WAS SUPPORTED BY WAA AND 285K-295
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING FROM MN INTO WRN WI.
TODAY...EXPECT SNOW OVER MAINLY THE N AND E PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AS THE UPSTREAM SHRTWV TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THIS
FEATURE...THE PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF OR END AS A DRY SLOT AND WARM
SECTOR MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
TEMPS REMAIN ON TRACK TOWARD THE MILD GUIDANCE VALUES IN THE MID TO
UPPPER 30S BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SNOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE OVER THE WEST NEAR THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW. EVEN WITH THE MILD CONDITIONS...WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP PCPN TYPE AS MAINLY SNOW.
TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO ERN WI TONIGHT...A SFC
TROUGH WILL SLIDE FROM W UPPER MI DURING THE EVENING TO THE CNTRL
U.P. BY 12Z/MON. INCREASING NNE WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH CAA
DROPPING 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -8C ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL FAVOR INCREASING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
OVER THE WEST...ESPECIALLY WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS STRONGEST...NEAR
IWD. ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE DURING THE
EVENING...EXPECT THE SNOW INTENSITY TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. SO...AN
ADVY WAS ISSUED FOR GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES...STARTING AT
00Z/MON WHERE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. 1 TO 2 INCH
AMOUNTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE KEWEENAW WITH ANY SNOWFALL OVER
THE CNTRL AND EAST LESS THAN AN INCH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY NEXT WEEKEND.
MONDAY...THE PATTERN MONDAY WILL CONSIST OF AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS WITH DEEP TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
A CLOSED 500MB LOW WILL BE PARKED JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW SLIDING FROM CENTRAL UPPER MI
TO EASTERN UPPER MI BY MONDAY EVENING. THE CAA ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO DROP FROM -14C/-15C OVER THE WEST
MONDAY MORNING TO AROUND TO -17C/-18C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVER THE EAST HALF...850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -6C/-7C IN
THE MORNING BEFORE FALLING TO AROUND -10C/-11C MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THIS POINT...EXPECTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BE
DEVELOPING/ONGOING OVER THE WESTERN U.P. ON NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
UPSLOPE FLOW MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. THE
EASTERN CWA WILL HAVE SOUTHERLY WINDS MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY
BECOMING NORTH BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE WIND
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND 850MB TEMPS BEGIN TO FALL WILL EXPECT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST HALF BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 5-7KFT THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE FAR WEST WITH MUCH LOWER
INVERSION HEIGHTS EXPECTED CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WOULD LEND SUPPORT TO ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE WESTERN
U.P. THROUGH THE DAY. A GOOD DEAL OF THE MOISTURE IN THE CLOUD LAYER
WOULD BE IN THE DGZ AS WELL...HELPING TO BOOST SNOW RATIOS OVER THE
WEST. AT THIS POINT EXPECT TOTALS DURING THE DAY TO BE AROUND 2 TO 4
INCHES FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW SOUTHWEST TO IRONWOOD.
THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST NEAR LAKE
HURON BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF THE U.P. IN NORTH
TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY COOL
ON CAA INTO THE AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING FROM AROUND
-14C/-15C MONDAY NIGHT TO AROUND -20C/-22C BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...HEAVIEST IN THE NORTH
TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT AS THERE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE DGZ WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 5-
7KFT. LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL
LIKELY COME DOWN QUITE A BIT EVEN THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SNOWING. THE MUCH COLDER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE
CLOUD LAYER COLDER THAN THE IDEAL DGZ LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT GIVING MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN DUG IN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. THE CHILLY AIR AT 850MB WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THEY
WERE IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MUCH
DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST. WILL STILL SEE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH DIMINISHED RATE...FOR MORE
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER TO
THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE ON THE INFLECTION POINT
BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/EC ARE HINTING
AT A SHORTWAVE QUICKLY SLIDING THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL PROBABLY GIVE AN UPTICK IN LES FOR THE CWA WITH
ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PROVIDED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
MOST OF THE SITES /AND ESPECIALLY IWD AT MVFR CONDITIONS/ ARE IN THE
BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN THE INITIAL BAND OF SNOW AND THE MORE STEADY SNOW
NEARING FROM NE MN AND W LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL BE SLIDING IN OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOOK FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS W-E AT ALL
SITES...DOWN TO TO IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS...WITH VIS FALLING TO LIFR
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE WHILE THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NE MN AND W LAKE SUPERIOR SHIFTS OVER SAW BY
06Z...AND THE PREDOMINATELY S WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE NNW TONIGHT AT
CMX AND IWD. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO FAR E UPPER MI BY
18Z...WITH WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE NNW AT SAW IN THE
MORNING...BRINGING FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS TO MOST LOCATIONS
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY MON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N AND INCREASE
TO 30KTS AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH
PRES BUILDING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL
CONTINUEINTO WED. WITH THE INFLUX OF COLDER AIR AND STRONG
WINDS...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM MON NIGHT
INTO WED AS WELL. THE WINDS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL DIMINISH
LATER ON WED/THU AS THE HIGH PRES EDGES CLOSER TO THE WESTERN LAKES.
THERE MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FRI FOLLOWING
ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO
7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ MONDAY FOR MIZ002-009.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KF
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1053 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1053 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
THE ONSHORE FLOW AT ISQ AND SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 30S HAVE RESULTED
IN OBSERVATIONS OF VERY WET SNOW AND EVEN SOME RAIN MIXING IN. HAVE
UPDATED THE FCST FOR A FEW LOCATIONS TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW. ALSO REDUCED THE SLR AND RESULTANT SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG MUCH OF
THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. MAY STILL BE TOO HIGH. WILL CONTINUE TO
RE-EVALUATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
THE WEST COAST RESULTING NW FLOW FROM WRN CANADA INTO THE PLAINS. A
MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WAS SLIDING SE INTO NRN MN.
LIGHT SNOW OVER UPPER MI WAS SUPPORTED BY WAA AND 285K-295
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING FROM MN INTO WRN WI.
TODAY...EXPECT SNOW OVER MAINLY THE N AND E PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AS THE UPSTREAM SHRTWV TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THIS
FEATURE...THE PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF OR END AS A DRY SLOT AND WARM
SECTOR MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
TEMPS REMAIN ON TRACK TOWARD THE MILD GUIDANCE VALUES IN THE MID TO
UPPPER 30S BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SNOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE OVER THE WEST NEAR THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW. EVEN WITH THE MILD CONDITIONS...WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP PCPN TYPE AS MAINLY SNOW.
TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO ERN WI TONIGHT...A SFC
TROUGH WILL SLIDE FROM W UPPER MI DURING THE EVENING TO THE CNTRL
U.P. BY 12Z/MON. INCREASING NNE WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH CAA
DROPPING 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -8C ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL FAVOR INCREASING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
OVER THE WEST...ESPECIALLY WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS STRONGEST...NEAR
IWD. ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE DURING THE
EVENING...EXPECT THE SNOW INTENSITY TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. SO...AN
ADVY WAS ISSUED FOR GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES...STARTING AT
00Z/MON WHERE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. 1 TO 2 INCH
AMOUNTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE KEWEENAW WITH ANY SNOWFALL OVER
THE CNTRL AND EAST LESS THAN AN INCH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY NEXT WEEKEND.
MONDAY...THE PATTERN MONDAY WILL CONSIST OF AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS WITH DEEP TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
A CLOSED 500MB LOW WILL BE PARKED JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW SLIDING FROM CENTRAL UPPER MI
TO EASTERN UPPER MI BY MONDAY EVENING. THE CAA ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO DROP FROM -14C/-15C OVER THE WEST
MONDAY MORNING TO AROUND TO -17C/-18C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVER THE EAST HALF...850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -6C/-7C IN
THE MORNING BEFORE FALLING TO AROUND -10C/-11C MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THIS POINT...EXPECTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BE
DEVELOPING/ONGOING OVER THE WESTERN U.P. ON NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
UPSLOPE FLOW MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. THE
EASTERN CWA WILL HAVE SOUTHERLY WINDS MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY
BECOMING NORTH BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE WIND
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND 850MB TEMPS BEGIN TO FALL WILL EXPECT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST HALF BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 5-7KFT THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE FAR WEST WITH MUCH LOWER
INVERSION HEIGHTS EXPECTED CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WOULD LEND SUPPORT TO ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE WESTERN
U.P. THROUGH THE DAY. A GOOD DEAL OF THE MOISTURE IN THE CLOUD LAYER
WOULD BE IN THE DGZ AS WELL...HELPING TO BOOST SNOW RATIOS OVER THE
WEST. AT THIS POINT EXPECT TOTALS DURING THE DAY TO BE AROUND 2 TO 4
INCHES FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW SOUTHWEST TO IRONWOOD.
THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST NEAR LAKE
HURON BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF THE U.P. IN NORTH
TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY COOL
ON CAA INTO THE AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING FROM AROUND
-14C/-15C MONDAY NIGHT TO AROUND -20C/-22C BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...HEAVIEST IN THE NORTH
TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT AS THERE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE DGZ WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 5-
7KFT. LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL
LIKELY COME DOWN QUITE A BIT EVEN THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SNOWING. THE MUCH COLDER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE
CLOUD LAYER COLDER THAN THE IDEAL DGZ LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT GIVING MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN DUG IN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. THE CHILLY AIR AT 850MB WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THEY
WERE IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MUCH
DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST. WILL STILL SEE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH DIMINISHED RATE...FOR MORE
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER TO
THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE ON THE INFLECTION POINT
BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/EC ARE HINTING
AT A SHORTWAVE QUICKLY SLIDING THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL PROBABLY GIVE AN UPTICK IN LES FOR THE CWA WITH
ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PROVIDED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
EXPECT IFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING NRN MN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE OVER NE MN AND FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z...PUSHING MUCH OF
THE INITIAL AREA OF SNOW NE IN THE AFTERNOON. STEADIER SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA AGAIN THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY
WEST AS CONDITIONS DROP TO LIFR OR NEAR LIFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY MON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N AND INCREASE
TO 30KTS AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH
PRES BUILDING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL
CONTINUEINTO WED. WITH THE INFLUX OF COLDER AIR AND STRONG
WINDS...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM MON NIGHT
INTO WED AS WELL. THE WINDS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL DIMINISH
LATER ON WED/THU AS THE HIGH PRES EDGES CLOSER TO THE WESTERN LAKES.
THERE MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FRI FOLLOWING
ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO
7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ MONDAY FOR MIZ002-009.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KF
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
702 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
THE WEST COAST RESULTING NW FLOW FROM WRN CANADA INTO THE PLAINS. A
MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WAS SLIDING SE INTO NRN MN.
LIGHT SNOW OVER UPPER MI WAS SUPPORTED BY WAA AND 285K-295
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING FROM MN INTO WRN WI.
TODAY...EXPECT SNOW OVER MAINLY THE N AND E PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AS THE UPSTREAM SHRTWV TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THIS
FEATURE...THE PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF OR END AS A DRY SLOT AND WARM
SECTOR MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
TEMPS REMAIN ON TRACK TOWARD THE MILD GUIDANCE VALUES IN THE MID TO
UPPPER 30S BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SNOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE OVER THE WEST NEAR THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW. EVEN WITH THE MILD CONDITIONS...WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP PCPN TYPE AS MAINLY SNOW.
TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO ERN WI TONIGHT...A SFC
TROUGH WILL SLIDE FROM W UPPER MI DURING THE EVENING TO THE CNTRL
U.P. BY 12Z/MON. INCREASING NNE WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH CAA
DROPPING 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -8C ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL FAVOR INCREASING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
OVER THE WEST...ESPECIALLY WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS STRONGEST...NEAR
IWD. ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE DURING THE
EVENING...EXPECT THE SNOW INTENSITY TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. SO...AN
ADVY WAS ISSUED FOR GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES...STARTING AT
00Z/MON WHERE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. 1 TO 2 INCH
AMOUNTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE KEWEENAW WITH ANY SNOWFALL OVER
THE CNTRL AND EAST LESS THAN AN INCH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY NEXT WEEKEND.
MONDAY...THE PATTERN MONDAY WILL CONSIST OF AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS WITH DEEP TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
A CLOSED 500MB LOW WILL BE PARKED JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW SLIDING FROM CENTRAL UPPER MI
TO EASTERN UPPER MI BY MONDAY EVENING. THE CAA ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO DROP FROM -14C/-15C OVER THE WEST
MONDAY MORNING TO AROUND TO -17C/-18C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVER THE EAST HALF...850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -6C/-7C IN
THE MORNING BEFORE FALLING TO AROUND -10C/-11C MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THIS POINT...EXPECTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BE
DEVELOPING/ONGOING OVER THE WESTERN U.P. ON NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
UPSLOPE FLOW MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. THE
EASTERN CWA WILL HAVE SOUTHERLY WINDS MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY
BECOMING NORTH BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE WIND
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND 850MB TEMPS BEGIN TO FALL WILL EXPECT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST HALF BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 5-7KFT THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE FAR WEST WITH MUCH LOWER
INVERSION HEIGHTS EXPECTED CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WOULD LEND SUPPORT TO ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE WESTERN
U.P. THROUGH THE DAY. A GOOD DEAL OF THE MOISTURE IN THE CLOUD LAYER
WOULD BE IN THE DGZ AS WELL...HELPING TO BOOST SNOW RATIOS OVER THE
WEST. AT THIS POINT EXPECT TOTALS DURING THE DAY TO BE AROUND 2 TO 4
INCHES FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW SOUTHWEST TO IRONWOOD.
THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST NEAR LAKE
HURON BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF THE U.P. IN NORTH
TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY COOL
ON CAA INTO THE AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING FROM AROUND
-14C/-15C MONDAY NIGHT TO AROUND -20C/-22C BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...HEAVIEST IN THE NORTH
TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT AS THERE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE DGZ WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 5-
7KFT. LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL
LIKELY COME DOWN QUITE A BIT EVEN THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SNOWING. THE MUCH COLDER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE
CLOUD LAYER COLDER THAN THE IDEAL DGZ LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT GIVING MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN DUG IN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. THE CHILLY AIR AT 850MB WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THEY
WERE IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MUCH
DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST. WILL STILL SEE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH DIMINISHED RATE...FOR MORE
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER TO
THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE ON THE INFLECTION POINT
BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/EC ARE HINTING
AT A SHORTWAVE QUICKLY SLIDING THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL PROBABLY GIVE AN UPTICK IN LES FOR THE CWA WITH
ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PROVIDED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
EXPECT IFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING NRN MN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE OVER NE MN AND FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z...PUSHING MUCH OF
THE INITIAL AREA OF SNOW NE IN THE AFTERNOON. STEADIER SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA AGAIN THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY
WEST AS CONDITIONS DROP TO LIFR OR NEAR LIFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY MON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N AND INCREASE
TO 30KTS AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH
PRES BUILDING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL
CONTINUEINTO WED. WITH THE INFLUX OF COLDER AIR AND STRONG
WINDS...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM MON NIGHT
INTO WED AS WELL. THE WINDS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL DIMINISH
LATER ON WED/THU AS THE HIGH PRES EDGES CLOSER TO THE WESTERN LAKES.
THERE MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FRI FOLLOWING
ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO
7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ MONDAY FOR MIZ002-009.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
524 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
THE WEST COAST RESULTING NW FLOW FROM WRN CANADA INTO THE PLAINS. A
MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WAS SLIDING SE INTO NRN MN.
LIGHT SNOW OVER UPPER MI WAS SUPPORTED BY WAA AND 285K-295
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING FROM MN INTO WRN WI.
TODAY...EXPECT SNOW OVER MAINLY THE N AND E PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AS THE UPSTREAM SHRTWV TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THIS
FEATURE...THE PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF OR END AS A DRY SLOT AND WARM
SECTOR MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
TEMPS REMAIN ON TRACK TOWARD THE MILD GUIDANCE VALUES IN THE MID TO
UPPPER 30S BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SNOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE OVER THE WEST NEAR THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW. EVEN WITH THE MILD CONDITIONS...WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP PCPN TYPE AS MAINLY SNOW.
TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO ERN WI TONIGHT...A SFC
TROUGH WILL SLIDE FROM W UPPER MI DURING THE EVENING TO THE CNTRL
U.P. BY 12Z/MON. INCREASING NNE WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH CAA
DROPPING 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -8C ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL FAVOR INCREASING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
OVER THE WEST...ESPECIALLY WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS STRONGEST...NEAR
IWD. ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE DURING THE
EVENING...EXPECT THE SNOW INTENSITY TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. SO...AN
ADVY WAS ISSUED FOR GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES...STARTING AT
00Z/MON WHERE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. 1 TO 2 INCH
AMOUNTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE KEWEENAW WITH ANY SNOWFALL OVER
THE CNTRL AND EAST LESS THAN AN INCH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY NEXT WEEKEND.
MONDAY...THE PATTERN MONDAY WILL CONSIST OF AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS WITH DEEP TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
A CLOSED 500MB LOW WILL BE PARKED JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW SLIDING FROM CENTRAL UPPER MI
TO EASTERN UPPER MI BY MONDAY EVENING. THE CAA ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO DROP FROM -14C/-15C OVER THE WEST
MONDAY MORNING TO AROUND TO -17C/-18C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVER THE EAST HALF...850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -6C/-7C IN
THE MORNING BEFORE FALLING TO AROUND -10C/-11C MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THIS POINT...EXPECTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BE
DEVELOPING/ONGOING OVER THE WESTERN U.P. ON NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
UPSLOPE FLOW MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. THE
EASTERN CWA WILL HAVE SOUTHERLY WINDS MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY
BECOMING NORTH BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE WIND
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND 850MB TEMPS BEGIN TO FALL WILL EXPECT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST HALF BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 5-7KFT THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE FAR WEST WITH MUCH LOWER
INVERSION HEIGHTS EXPECTED CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WOULD LEND SUPPORT TO ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE WESTERN
U.P. THROUGH THE DAY. A GOOD DEAL OF THE MOISTURE IN THE CLOUD LAYER
WOULD BE IN THE DGZ AS WELL...HELPING TO BOOST SNOW RATIOS OVER THE
WEST. AT THIS POINT EXPECT TOTALS DURING THE DAY TO BE AROUND 2 TO 4
INCHES FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW SOUTHWEST TO IRONWOOD.
THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST NEAR LAKE
HURON BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF THE U.P. IN NORTH
TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY COOL
ON CAA INTO THE AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING FROM AROUND
-14C/-15C MONDAY NIGHT TO AROUND -20C/-22C BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...HEAVIEST IN THE NORTH
TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT AS THERE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE DGZ WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 5-
7KFT. LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL
LIKELY COME DOWN QUITE A BIT EVEN THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SNOWING. THE MUCH COLDER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE
CLOUD LAYER COLDER THAN THE IDEAL DGZ LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT GIVING MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN DUG IN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. THE CHILLY AIR AT 850MB WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THEY
WERE IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MUCH
DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST. WILL STILL SEE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH DIMINISHED RATE...FOR MORE
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER TO
THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE ON THE INFLECTION POINT
BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/EC ARE HINTING
AT A SHORTWAVE QUICKLY SLIDING THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL PROBABLY GIVE AN UPTICK IN LES FOR THE CWA WITH
ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PROVIDED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
EXPECT MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM S CENTRAL CANADA/NRN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE TAF SITES INTO SUN MORNING.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER NE MN/W LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z
SUNDAY...PUSHING MUCH OF THE INITIAL AREA OF SNOW NE IN THE
AFTERNOON. STEADIER SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY WEST AS CONDITIONS COULD LOWER TO
IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY MON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N AND INCREASE
TO 30KTS AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH
PRES BUILDING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL
CONTINUEINTO WED. WITH THE INFLUX OF COLDER AIR AND STRONG
WINDS...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM MON NIGHT
INTO WED AS WELL. THE WINDS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL DIMINISH
LATER ON WED/THU AS THE HIGH PRES EDGES CLOSER TO THE WESTERN LAKES.
THERE MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FRI FOLLOWING
ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO
7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ MONDAY FOR MIZ002-009.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1146 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016
UPGRADED THE BLIZZARD WATCHES TO BLIZZARD WARNINGS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. SNOW DEPTH AND WHERE RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING THIS EVENING
PLAYED A LARGE ROLE IN DETERMINING WHICH COUNTIES TO UPGRADE TO
BLIZZARD WARNINGS VERSUS WINTER STORM WARNINGS. CURRENT SNOW DEPTH
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IS AMPLE FOLLOWING THE WINTER STORM EARLIER
THIS WEEK. IN FACT...MANY AREAS HAVE GREATER THAN 8 INCHES. THESE
AREAS HAVE ALSO REMAINED COOLER TODAY AND VERY LITTLE RAIN HAS
FALLEN. BY ALL ACCOUNTS THE SNOW IS ABLE TO BLOW AROUND...
ESPECIALLY WITH GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 MPH.
CONTRAST THAT WITH WEST CENTRAL MN WHICH LARGELY MISSED
OUT ON THE LAST WINTER STORM...THEY HAVE HAD ON AND OFF RAIN ALL
EVENING...AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S THIS
EVENING. SNOW DEPTH THERE IS MORE VARIABLE...RANGING FROM ZERO IN
PLACES TO 6 OR 7 INCHES IN OTHERS. IT IS UNLIKELY DESPITE 50 OR 55
MPH WIND GUSTS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW THAT WIDESPREAD WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. SEVERAL CALLS AROUND THE AREA ALSO
POINTED OUT THE SNOW IS DENSE AND WET. CANNOT RULE OUT POCKETS OF
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...BUT DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR A
BLIZZARD WARNING THERE. VERY STRONG WINDS AND LIGHT SNOW STILL
NECESSITATED SOME TYPE OF WARNING. IF MORE SNOW FALLS ALLOWING
VISIBILITIES TO BE REDUCED TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS IN SEVERAL
PLACES...THEN WE MAY NEED TO UPGRADE THOSE LOCATIONS TO A
BLIZZARD WARNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016
A STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS EVIDENT ACROSS MONTANA AND THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS AFTN AS PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AHEAD OF
THIS SHORT WAVE...BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS ND/SD...AND
MOVED AS FAR EAST AS WC MN. REGIONAL OBS HAVE ALSO REPORTED
SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN WITH THE RADAR ECHOES. SOME OF THE OBS HAD EVEN
RECORDED A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVED ACROSS
THE AREA.
DUE TO THE FACT THAT OBS ARE REPORTING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND
THE LATEST RAP HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION...HAVE UPDATED WX GRIDS TO INCORPORATE LIKELY POPS IN
WC MN/CENTRAL MN DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING TIME FRAME. AS THE
LIGHT RAIN MOVES EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MN DURING THE EVENING...SFC
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ICY CONDS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. AS THIS
AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN AND WC WI...TEMPS
ALOFT ARE COLD ENOUGH TO HAD A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW.
DUE TO A PERSISTENT SW/WEST FLOW COMING FROM THE DAKOTAS WHERE
TODAYS TEMPS WERE IN THE 40S...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FALLING TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH MANY AREAS HAVING STEADY TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SUNDAY/S WX IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN/SW/SC MN FOR A TRUE BLIZZARD TO FORM. TODAYS
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH 40S ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE HAVE
CREATED A DENSER SNOWPACK /LESS LIKELY TO BLOW AROUND/. SOME AREAS
IN WC MN HAVE EVEN LOST MOST OF THEIR SNOWPACK...SO ANY BLOWING SNOW
WILL NEED TO BE FROM NEW SNOW SUNDAY AFTN. THEREFORE...DUE TO
PROBLEMS RELATED TO GENERATING BLOWING SNOW...THE BLIZZARD WATCH
WILL CONTINUE. FURTHER TO THE EAST WHERE A BETTER CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED AND THE SNOWPACK IS DEEPER...A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY AFTN THRU MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING AS TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO FALL FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE STATE BY THE AFTN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016
LONGER TERM CONCERN REMAINS BLIZZARD POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
WE STILL ANTICIPATE STRONG WINDS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS INTO MONDAY MORNING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS TO THE EAST OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. BUFKIT PROFILES OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH SHOWING MAX GUST
POTENTIALS OF 45-50 KTS. LARGE DGZ ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND
EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS OVERALL. THE HIGHER SNOW FALL
POTENTIAL OF 2-3 INCHES OVER THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH MONDAY
CWA. THE MAIN LIMITING SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL REMAINS
WARMER AIR TODAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING SOME SETTLING TO THE
EXISTING SNOW PACK...HOW WIDESPREAD THE NEW SNOW WILL BE AND ONLY
LIMITED SNOW FALL OVER WEST CENTRAL MN FROM THE FEB 2-3 EVENT.
THE BLOWING SNOW MODEL INDICATES IF SNOW IS REALIZED...WE WOULD
LIKELY SEE THE GROUND BLIZZARD ACROSS THE CURRENT BLIZZARD WATCH
AREA. ALSO...THE LATEST CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE STILL WAS INDICATING
A GREATER THAN 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF 2-3 HR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
BEING REALIZE AS WELL.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
THE LONG TERM MODELS WITH THE CHANCE OF A WEAK CLIPPER/WAA
ADVECTION PATTERN MOVING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR
NOW. THE OTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW MOVES IN WITH ANOTHER WEAK
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD
REMAIN DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK. THERE ARE SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LARGELY UNTIL THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
BEGIN LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER SLOWLY THROUGH THAT
TIME AND INCREASE WITH SOME GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 KT EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MN.
KMSP...VFR UNTIL ABOUT 22Z WHEN THE SNOW SHOWERS ARRIVE.
THEREAFTER...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOME OCCASIONAL
BLOWING SNOW AS WELL.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...CHC MVFR/IFR/-SN. WINDY. BLSN POSSIBLE. WIND NW 20G35KT.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
MNZ065>067-073>076-082>085-091>093.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
MNZ041-047-048-054>058-064.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
MNZ042>045-049-050.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
MNZ051>053-059>063-068>070-077-078.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
610 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 608 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
HAVE ALLOWED WIND AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE ON
SCHEDULE AT 6 PM. SNOW HAS ENDED IN SOUTHWEST IOWA COUNTIES...AND
WITH WINDS SUBSIDING THIS EVENING...BLOWING SNOW WILL NOT BE AN
ISSUE THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOW REGION IN
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST WHILE AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST.
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT PRODUCED VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN ADDITION
TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 00Z WHEN ALL WINDS SHOULD BE
BELOW CRITERIA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NATION`S
MID SECTION THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WILL FOCUS MAINLY ON TEMPERATURES AS ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN CHANCES
ARE MINIMAL.
WE CONTINUE A VERY SMALL POP IN OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY AS A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH A VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH UPPER TEENS IN
OUR NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S IN OUR SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE FLOW ON FRIDAY WITH
MUCH OF THE STRONG FORCING REMAINING TO OUR NORTHEAST.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGING TO THE WEST DEAMPLIFIES LEAVING OUR REGION IN
MORE OF A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS STRONG 1047 MB HIGH.
THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BRINGING A CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO
THE NATION`S MID SECTION ON SUNDAY BUT WILL WAIT FOR SOME BETTER
MODEL CONTINUITY BEFORE ADDING A BUNCH OF POPS FOR THE TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE WINDS AND IF ANY MVFR
CIGS WILL SKIRT THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA. CONTINUE WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 20KTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 28KTS BEFORE THE
WINDS DIMINISH...TUESDAY AFTERNOON. REGARDING THE MVFR CIGS...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS KEEP IT TO THE
EAST OF KOMA...WHILE OTHERS...BRING IT INTO KOMA FOR A FEW HOURS.
FOR NOW WILL MENTIONS SOME MVFR CIGS AFTER 06Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DERGAN
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
532 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOW REGION IN
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST WHILE AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST.
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT PRODUCED VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN ADDITION
TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 00Z WHEN ALL WINDS SHOULD BE
BELOW CRITERIA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NATION`S
MID SECTION THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WILL FOCUS MAINLY ON TEMPERATURES AS ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN CHANCES
ARE MINIMAL.
WE CONTINUE A VERY SMALL POP IN OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY AS A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH A VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH UPPER TEENS IN
OUR NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S IN OUR SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE FLOW ON FRIDAY WITH
MUCH OF THE STRONG FORCING REMAINING TO OUR NORTHEAST.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGING TO THE WEST DEAMPLIFIES LEAVING OUR REGION IN
MORE OF A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS STRONG 1047 MB HIGH.
THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BRINGING A CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO
THE NATION`S MID SECTION ON SUNDAY BUT WILL WAIT FOR SOME BETTER
MODEL CONTINUITY BEFORE ADDING A BUNCH OF POPS FOR THE TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE WINDS AND IF ANY MVFR
CIGS WILL SKIRT THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA. CONTINUE WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 20KTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 28KTS BEFORE THE
WINDS DIMINISH...TUESDAY AFTERNOON. REGARDING THE MVFR CIGS...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS KEEP IT TO THE
EAST OF KOMA...WHILE OTHERS...BRING IT INTO KOMA FOR A FEW HOURS.
FOR NOW WILL MENTIONS SOME MVFR CIGS AFTER 06Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-
055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
079-080-090-091.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1213 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY...WITH A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1211 PM EST SUNDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTH AND A FEW FLURRIES. HAVE UPDATED TO CAPTURE LATEST
TRENDS WHICH SUPPORT NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES AND NORTH WINDS AT
4 TO 8 MPH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM MID/UPPER 20S NORTHERN SECTIONS
TO NEAR 40F AT VSF. ALL COVERED WELL IN CURRENT GRIDS.
FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO
CAPTURE LATEST SURFACE TRENDS. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
WEAK/SHALLOW BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WITH ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLY TERRAIN DRIVEN DOWN THE
VALLEYS WITH A FEW FLURRIES LIKELY ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH. GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND COOL AIR ADVECTION EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN
SECTIONS...WITH WARMEST VALUES NEAR VSF WITH SOME SUN. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S...ALL COVERED WELL IN CURRENT
FORECAST.
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AS THAT BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SOME LIGHT SNOW AND OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
AROUND 16Z. AFTER THAT EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP AND THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET. ADJUSTED POPS
AND WEATHER TO BLEND IN CURRENT OBS AND THE SAME FOR TEMPS AND
DEW POINTS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 352 AM EST SUNDAY...A RELATIVELY QUIET
DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP MONDAY. A SURFACE FRONT AND
SOME ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA AND THE BEST
MOISTURE WITH THAT WILL ALSO STAY TO OUR NORTH. FLURRIES AND OR
LIGHT SNOW CAN`T BE RULED OUT HOWEVER AS WE WILL SEE SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SO AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY AND WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS
AND STAYING IN THE MID 20S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT RIVER
VALLEYS. ALL IN ALL A VERY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTH
COUNTRY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SUNDAY...THE REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN TWO WEATHER
SYSTEMS ON MONDAY...WITH A DEEPENING OCEAN STORM MOVING NORTHEAST
OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA AND UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC ON MONDAY WITH FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODEL
AGAIN DEVELOP ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
TUESDAY...BUT AGAIN HEAD IT OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK (40N
70W). TEMPERATURES AGAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SUNDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING A STRONG SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR...WITH HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO AROUND 10 ABOVE. THE ARCTIC AIR
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. LOWS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW ZERO SATURDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR CIGS AND VIS TRENDING TOWARDS
POSSIBLE MVFR BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECT FOR KMSS/KSLK/KPBG/KBTV WHILE KMPV/KRUT REMAIN VFR. BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR AND LATEST RAP GUIDANCE I WENT AHEAD AND TEMPO`D
IN SOME LIGHT SNOW AT PBG/SLK/BTV FOR THE FRONT. THE OVERALL
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AND IFR IS NOT EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY UNDER 10 KTS AND WILL BACK AROUND TO
THE NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT DROPS THOUGH THE AREA .
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
920 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY...WITH A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 916 AM EST SUNDAY...FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING
WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO CAPTURE LATEST SURFACE TRENDS. CURRENT
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK/SHALLOW BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING
DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
HIGHLY TERRAIN DRIVEN DOWN THE VALLEYS WITH A FEW FLURRIES LIKELY
ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND COOL
AIR ADVECTION EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL SEVERAL
DEGREES ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN SECTIONS...WITH WARMEST
VALUES NEAR VSF WITH SOME SUN. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S...ALL COVERED WELL IN CURRENT FORECAST.
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AS THAT BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SOME LIGHT SNOW AND OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
AROUND 16Z. AFTER THAT EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP AND THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET. ADJUSTED POPS
AND WEATHER TO BLEND IN CURRENT OBS AND THE SAME FOR TEMPS AND
DEW POINTS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 352 AM EST SUNDAY...A RELATIVELY QUIET
DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP MONDAY. A SURFACE FRONT AND
SOME ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA AND THE BEST
MOISTURE WITH THAT WILL ALSO STAY TO OUR NORTH. FLURRIES AND OR
LIGHT SNOW CAN`T BE RULED OUT HOWEVER AS WE WILL SEE SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SO AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY AND WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS
AND STAYING IN THE MID 20S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT RIVER
VALLEYS. ALL IN ALL A VERY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTH
COUNTRY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SUNDAY...THE REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN TWO WEATHER
SYSTEMS ON MONDAY...WITH A DEEPENING OCEAN STORM MOVING NORTHEAST
OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA AND UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC ON MONDAY WITH FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODEL
AGAIN DEVELOP ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
TUESDAY...BUT AGAIN HEAD IT OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK (40N
70W). TEMPERATURES AGAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SUNDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING A STRONG SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR...WITH HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO AROUND 10 ABOVE. THE ARCTIC AIR
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. LOWS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW ZERO SATURDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR CIGS AND VIS TRENDING TOWARDS
POSSIBLE MVFR BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECT FOR KMSS/KSLK/KPBG/KBTV WHILE KMPV/KRUT REMAIN VFR. BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR AND LATEST RAP GUIDANCE I WENT AHEAD AND TEMPO`D
IN SOME LIGHT SNOW AT PBG/SLK/BTV FOR THE FRONT. THE OVERALL
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AND IFR IS NOT EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY UNDER 10 KTS AND WILL BACK AROUND TO
THE NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT DROPS THOUGH THE AREA .
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
657 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY...WITH A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM EST SUNDAY...
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AS THAT BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SOME LIGHT SNOW AND OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
AROUND 16Z. AFTER THAT EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP AND THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET. ADJUSTED POPS
AND WEATHER TO BLEND IN CURRENT OBS AND THE SAME FOR TEMPS AND
DEW POINTS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 352 AM EST SUNDAY...A RELATIVELY QUIET
DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP MONDAY. A SURFACE FRONT AND
SOME ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA AND THE BEST
MOISTURE WITH THAT WILL ALSO STAY TO OUR NORTH. FLURRIES AND OR
LIGHT SNOW CAN`T BE RULED OUT HOWEVER AS WE WILL SEE SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SO AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY AND WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS
AND STAYING IN THE MID 20S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT RIVER
VALLEYS. ALL IN ALL A VERY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTH
COUNTRY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SUNDAY...THE REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN TWO WEATHER
SYSTEMS ON MONDAY...WITH A DEEPENING OCEAN STORM MOVING NORTHEAST
OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA AND UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC ON MONDAY WITH FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODEL
AGAIN DEVELOP ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
TUESDAY...BUT AGAIN HEAD IT OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK (40N
70W). TEMPERATURES AGAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SUNDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING A STRONG SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR...WITH HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO AROUND 10 ABOVE. THE ARCTIC AIR
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. LOWS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW ZERO SATURDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR CIGS AND VIS TRENDING TOWARDS
POSSIBLE MVFR BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECT FOR KMSS/KSLK/KPBG/KBTV WHILE KMPV/KRUT REMAIN VFR. BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR AND LATEST RAP GUIDANCE I WENT AHEAD AND TEMPO`D
IN SOME LIGHT SNOW AT PBG/SLK/BTV FOR THE FRONT. THE OVERALL
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AND IFR IS NOT EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY UNDER 10 KTS AND WILL BACK AROUND TO
THE NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT DROPS THOUGH THE AREA .
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
744 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AND EXTENDED
PERIOD OF COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...
A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL SPREAD 100-150M
HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED PAIR
OF COLD FRONTS TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE BIGGEST FORECAST INTEREST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS THE BAND
OF SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE LEAD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. THE BAND
STRETCHING FROM THE TRIAD THROUGH CHARLOTTE IS FORECAST BY CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 21Z AND
03Z. WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S...THERE IS VERY LITTLE CAPE...IF ANY AT ALL. HOWEVER...AN AXIS OF
STEEP 7-7.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRAMATIC
COOLING UNDERWAY ALOFT HAS ADVECTED OVER CENTRAL NC...PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS. THIS COUPLED WITH THE (RELATIVE) WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY JUST IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE HRRR SHOWS THE BAND OF SHOWERS
STRENGTHENING A BIT WITH TIME AND EASTWARD EXTENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN A FAIRLY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WIND GUSTS OF 30-40MPH WITH THE SHOWERS
SEEMS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO PLAUSIBLE
WITHIN THE LINE GIVEN THE THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT
WITHOUT BETTER FORECASTS CAPE...PREFER TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF
THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS BEFORE ADDING THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.
A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST VA BY
MIDNIGHT AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LATE
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME OMEGA AND MOISTURE
IN THE -12C TO -18C LAYER FROM DANVILLE TO EMPORIA...SO IT SEEMS
LESS LIKELY THAT WE`LL SEE ANY PRECIP THAT CHANGES OVER TO SNOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT A FEW FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOWS 28-33.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...
THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL MAKE ITS WAY OVERHEAD ON
TUESDAY...WITH A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE TROUGH FORECAST TO SWING
ACROSS VA AND NORTHERN NC DURING THE AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT...ALONG WITH THE STRONG DCVA AND MOISTENING BETWEEN 5-10K
FEET(COINCIDENT WITH THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE)...MAY LEAD SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER....ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
DAY FROM ROXBORO TO ROANOKE RAPIDS. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE MUCH BETTER COVERAGE NORTH OF THE BORDER AND THE ECMWF IS
THE ONLY MODEL TO INDICATE ANY QPF IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID 40S EAST...BUT DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 20S WOULD PUSH WETBULB PROFILES COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID
20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM MONDAY...
COLD MID-LATE WEEK...AND EVEN COLDER --PERHAPS RECORD SO-- THIS
WEEKEND...WITH A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION (LATE FRI-
FRI NIGHT AND LATE MON-TUE).
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A STRONG WESTERN NOAM
RIDGE AND EASTERN NOAM TROUGH WILL UNDERGO A BRIEF RELAXATION LATE
IN THE WEEK...IN ADVANCE OF A POLAR VORTEX THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND...AND EFFECTIVELY RE-AMPLIFY THE
FLOW...THIS WEEKEND. A PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL THEN FLATTEN
THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE SUN-MON.
WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...SHEAR VORTICITY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGHS WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES MID-LATE WEEK...WITH EACH SUPPORTING AN AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION STREAKING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE LEAD
DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE A MORE LIMITED MOISTURE SUPPLY AND LITTLE LOW
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS ON THU...WHILE THE SECOND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW-
MID LEVEL WAA REGIME AND CONSEQUENTLY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SUPPORTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOST LIKELY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW...OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...CENTERED AROUND FRI EVENING.
A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL ACCOMPANY THE
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED POLAR VORTEX
SUPPRESSES THE NORTHERN STREAM/PROMOTES CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT THE SOUTHEASTWARD MAINTENANCE OF A 1040-1045 MB HIGH
FROM THE ARCTIC. WHILE THIS WOULD YIELD INITIALLY JUST NEAR RECORD
COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE
PACIFIC TROUGH AND AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WOULD
RAISE THE PROBABILITY OF STREAM INTERACTION...AND STORMINESS AND
APPALACHIAN COLD AIR DAMMING...MON-TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...
A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS IS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING... IN ADVANCE OF A SURFACE
COLD FRONT. THE BAND OF SHOWERS HAS JUST MOVED TO THE EAST OF KFAY
AND KRDU THIS EVENING... WITH ONLY KRWI STILL EXPERIENCING THE PRECIP
AND THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS (GENERALLY WIND
GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE POSSIBLY... WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE). THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING... ENDING ANY LINGERING THREAT OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 9-12KT AND GUSTS TO AROUND 18 TO 23
KTS ON TUESDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME CIGS AT AROUND 4 TO 5 KFT ALONG
WITH MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 KTS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL COME FRIDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES
THE AREA.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...2
AVIATION...7/SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
200 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND MOVE AWAY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM SUNDAY...
SHORT FUSE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
JOHNSTON...WAYNE...WILSON...HARNETT...CUMBERLAND...SAMPSON
COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS REPORTED
FROM BURSTS OF HEAVIER SLEET...
MSAS SHOWS A ~1003MB SURFACE LOW EAST OF CHARLESTON SC THIS
MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO A 553DM UPPER LOW PIVOTING OVER THE
SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN. THE PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWEST OF THE LOW
EXTENDS THROUGH THE NC COASTAL PLAIN....WHERE TEMP PROFILES ARE
MARGINAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PTYPES...A SLIGHT WARM NOSE OF 1-2C AT
5K FT AND SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 33-35F RANGE. HOWEVER...IN THE PAST
HOUR OR SO THE RATES HAVE BEEN HIGH ENOUGH FOR MELTING AND
WETBULBING TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF PREDOMINATELY SLEET IN
WILSON....WAYNE...JOHNSTON...AND NORTHERN SAMPSON COUNTIES. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE COUNTIES GIVEN
NUMEROUS TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS. DUAL POL CC SUGGESTS LIGHT TO MODERATE
SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR WEST AS RALEIGH AND SANFORD AS WELL.
RAP AND HRRR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE SMALL WARM NOSE CONTINUING TO COOL
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...SO ITS ENTIRELY POSSIBLY THAT PERIODS OF
MODERATE SLEET MAY PRODUCE A HALF INCH OF SO SLEET....WITH ANOTHER
QUARTER INCH OF QPF STILL POSSIBLE AS THE PRECIP BAND PIVOTS OVER
THE AREA.
A DOWNWARD TEND IN PRECIP...ALBEIT LIKELY VERY SLOW...IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DEEPENS EAST OF CAPE FEAR AND
THEN FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE EAST AND FURTHER OFFSHORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 321 AM SUNDAY...
REGARDLESS OF HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST A COASTAL LOW WOBBLES AS IT
BOMBS OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...THE
RESULTANT DEEP CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND
AWAY FROM THE NC COAST TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A
"KICKER" VORTEX AND ACCOMPANYING ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN SHORT
WAVELENGTH FLOW ALOFT...FORECAST TO PIVOT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO
THE TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS THROUGH EARLY MON. CLEARING SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
AN AREA OF BROAD BUT STRONG 100-150 METER HEIGHT FALLS AND
COOLING/FGEN ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT AND POCKET OF
STEEP (7.5 C/KM) 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES...WILL SUPPORT THE
EASTWARD MAINTENANCE OF A BAND OF SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL NC DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A "WARMING" DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST
FLOW...INCLUDING A SSW SURFACE BREEZE AND TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S...WILL ENSURE THIS ACTIVITY
WILL FALL AS RAIN.
MONDAY NIGHT: STRONG CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONTAL
PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MILLER-B SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS MOVING
OFF THE NC/VA COAST MONDAY EVENING....MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF
TRANSITION/CHANGE-OVER TO A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES BEFORE PRECIP ENDS
ACROSS THE AREA. NO ACCUMULATIONS/IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS
TUESDAY MORNING IN THE MID 20S NORTHWEST PIEDMONT TO LOWER 30S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 1M SUNDAY...
MOISTURE WILL BE SCARCE...BUT PERIODS OF STRONG DCVA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH STOUT VORT LOBES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE ANOMALOUS
DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE(H5 ANOMALIES 2 TO 4 SD BELOW
NORMAL)ACROSS THE EASTERN US WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES
ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.
THE BIG WEATHER STORY HERE WILL BE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH H8 TEMPS IN THE -12 TO -15C RANGE AND LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES BOTTOMING OUT TO AROUND 1240M WEDNESDAY NIGHT...60 TO 70
METERS BELOW NORMAL! HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON FRIDAY AS THE COLD UPPER
TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...
THIS WARMING TREND WILL NOT LAST LONG AS AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERN US TROUGH WILL BRING A
REINFORCEMENT OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY. SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FROZEN PRECIP AS THE UPPER WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.
HOWEVER SINCE MOISTURE IS TYPICALLY LIMITED IN NW FLOW EVENTS...WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SUNDAY...
WITH A A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OFF THE S COAST...PRECIP CONTINUES
TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE NC COASTAL PLAIN. RAIN HAS BEEN MIXING
WITH OR COMPLETELY CHANGING TO SLEET AND SNOW ALONG AN AXIS FROM
KFAY TO KRWI. NEAR TERM MODELS SHOW THIS CONTINUING THROUGH 22Z OR
SO BEFORE PRECIP ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. CEILINGS HAVE ACTUALLY REMAINED ABOVE 2000 FT
FOR THE MOST PART...AND VFR CONDITIONS HAVE EVEN BEEN PREDOMINATE AT
MANY SITES. OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIP...EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A FEW WIND GUSTS TO
25 KT OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN AND PASS BY THE NC COAST. SOME MVFR VSBYS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
FROM KFAY TOP KRWI LATE TONIGHT WHERE IT HAS BEEN PRECIPITATION ALL
DAY...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE DOESN`T SHOW MUCH REPORT AND CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AT THIS POINT.
A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
DISTURBANCE DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KT AND
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OUTLOOK...AFTER THE DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY PASSES BY...THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS EACH DAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ042-
043-077-078-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT/SMITH
SHORT TERM...BADGETT/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
100 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND MOVE AWAY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM SUNDAY...
...SHORT FUSE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
JOHNSTON...WAYNE...WILSON...HARNETT...CUMBERLAND...SAMPSON
COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS REPORTED
FROM BURSTS OF HEAVIER SLEET...
MSAS SHOWS A ~1003MB SURFACE LOW EAST OF CHARLESTON SC THIS
MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO A 553DM UPPER LOW PIVOTING OVER THE
SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN. THE PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWEST OF THE LOW
EXTENDS THROUGH THE NC COASTAL PLAIN....WHERE TEMP PROFILES ARE
MARGINAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PTYPES...A SLIGHT WARM NOSE OF 1-2C AT
5K FT AND SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 33-35F RANGE. HOWEVER...IN THE PAST
HOUR OR SO THE RATES HAVE BEEN HIGH ENOUGH FOR MELTING AND
WETBULBING TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF PREDOMINATELY SLEET IN
WILSON....WAYNE...JOHNSTON...AND NORTHERN SAMPSON COUNTIES. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE COUNTIES GIVEN
NUMEROUS TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS. DUAL POL CC SUGGESTS LIGHT TO MODERATE
SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR WEST AS RALEIGH AND SANFORD AS WELL.
RAP AND HRRR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE SMALL WARM NOSE CONTINUING TO COOL
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...SO ITS ENTIRELY POSSIBLY THAT PERIODS OF
MODERATE SLEET MAY PRODUCE A HALF INCH OF SO SLEET....WITH ANOTHER
QUARTER INCH OF QPF STILL POSSIBLE AS THE PRECIP BAND PIVOTS OVER
THE AREA.
A DOWNWARD TEND IN PRECIP...ALBEIT LIKELY VERY SLOW...IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DEEPENS EAST OF CAPE FEAR AND
THEN FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE EAST AND FURTHER OFFSHORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 321 AM SUNDAY...
REGARDLESS OF HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST A COASTAL LOW WOBBLES AS IT
BOMBS OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...THE
RESULTANT DEEP CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND
AWAY FROM THE NC COAST TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A
"KICKER" VORTEX AND ACCOMPANYING ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN SHORT
WAVELENGTH FLOW ALOFT...FORECAST TO PIVOT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO
THE TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS THROUGH EARLY MON. CLEARING SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
AN AREA OF BROAD BUT STRONG 100-150 METER HEIGHT FALLS AND
COOLING/FGEN ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT AND POCKET OF
STEEP (7.5 C/KM) 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES...WILL SUPPORT THE
EASTWARD MAINTENANCE OF A BAND OF SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL NC DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A "WARMING" DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST
FLOW...INCLUDING A SSW SURFACE BREEZE AND TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S...WILL ENSURE THIS ACTIVITY
WILL FALL AS RAIN.
MONDAY NIGHT: STRONG CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONTAL
PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MILLER-B SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS MOVING
OFF THE NC/VA COAST MONDAY EVENING....MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF
TRANSITION/CHANGE-OVER TO A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES BEFORE PRECIP ENDS
ACROSS THE AREA. NO ACCUMULATIONS/IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS
TUESDAY MORNING IN THE MID 20S NORTHWEST PIEDMONT TO LOWER 30S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 335 1M SUNDAY...
MOISTURE WILL BE SCARCE...BUT PERIODS OF STRONG DCVA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH STOUT VORT LOBES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE ANOMALOUS
DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE(H5 ANOMALIES 2 TO 4 SD BELOW
NORMAL)ACROSS THE EASTERN US WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES
ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.
THE BIG WEATHER STORY HERE WILL BE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH H8 TEMPS IN THE -12 TO -15C RANGE AND LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES BOTTOMING OUT TO AROUND 1240M WEDNESDAY NIGHT...60 TO 70
METERS BELOW NORMAL! HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON FRIDAY AS THE COLD UPPER
TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...
THIS WARMING TREND WILL NOT LAST LONG AS AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERN US TROUGH WILL BRING A
REINFORCEMENT OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY. SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FROZEN PRECIP AS THE UPPER WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.
HOWEVER SINCE MOISTURE IS TYPICALLY LIMITED IN NW FLOW EVENTS...WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SUNDAY...
WITH A A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OFF THE S COAST...PRECIP CONTINUES
TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE NC COASTAL PLAIN. RAIN HAS BEEN MIXING
WITH OR COMPLETELY CHANGING TO SLEET AND SNOW ALONG AN AXIS FROM
KFAY TO KRWI. NEAR TERM MODELS SHOW THIS CONTINUING THROUGH 22Z OR
SO BEFORE PRECIP ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. CEILINGS HAVE ACTUALLY REMAINED ABOVE 2000 FT
FOR THE MOST PART...AND VFR CONDITIONS HAVE EVEN BEEN PREDOMINATE AT
MANY SITES. OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIP...EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A FEW WIND GUSTS TO
25 KT OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN AND PASS BY THE NC COAST. SOME MVFR VSBYS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
FROM KFAY TOP KRWI LATE TONIGHT WHERE IT HAS BEEN PRECIPITATION ALL
DAY...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE DOESN`T SHOW MUCH REPORT AND CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AT THIS POINT.
A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
DISTURBANCE DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KT AND
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OUTLOOK...AFTER THE DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY PASSES BY...THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS EACH DAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ042-043-077-078-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT/SMITH
SHORT TERM...BADGETT/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1021 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND MOVE AWAY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM SUNDAY...
...SHORT FUSE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JOHNSTON...WAYNE...WILSON
AND SAMPSON COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS
REPORTED FROM BURSTS OF HEAVIER SLEET...
MSAS SHOWS A ~1003MB SURFACE LOW EAST OF CHARLESTON SC THIS
MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO A 553DM UPPER LOW PIVOTING OVER THE
SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN. THE PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWEST OF THE LOW
EXTENDS THROUGH THE NC COASTAL PLAIN....WHERE TEMP PROFILES ARE
MARGINAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PTYPES...A SLIGHT WARM NOSE OF 1-2C AT
5K FT AND SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 33-35F RANGE. HOWEVER...IN THE PAST
HOUR OR SO THE RATES HAVE BEEN HIGH ENOUGH FOR MELTING AND
WETBULBING TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF PREDOMINATELY SLEET IN
WILSON....WAYNE...JOHNSTON...AND NORTHERN SAMPSON COUNTIES. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE COUNTIES GIVEN
NUMEROUS TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS. DUAL POL CC SUGGESTS LIGHT TO MODERATE
SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR WEST AS RALEIGH AND SANFORD AS WELL.
RAP AND HRRR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE SMALL WARM NOSE CONTINUING TO COOL
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...SO ITS ENTIRELY POSSIBLY THAT PERIODS OF
MODERATE SLEET MAY PRODUCE A HALF INCH OF SO SLEET....WITH ANOTHER
QUARTER INCH OF QPF STILL POSSIBLE AS THE PRECIP BAND PIVOTS OVER
THE AREA.
A DOWNWARD TEND IN PRECIP...ALBEIT LIKELY VERY SLOW...IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DEEPENS EAST OF CAPE FEAR AND
THEN FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE EAST AND FURTHER OFFSHORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 321 AM SUNDAY...
REGARDLESS OF HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST A COASTAL LOW WOBBLES AS IT
BOMBS OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...THE
RESULTANT DEEP CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND
AWAY FROM THE NC COAST TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A
"KICKER" VORTEX AND ACCOMPANYING ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN SHORT
WAVELENGTH FLOW ALOFT...FORECAST TO PIVOT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO
THE TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS THROUGH EARLY MON. CLEARING SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
AN AREA OF BROAD BUT STRONG 100-150 METER HEIGHT FALLS AND
COOLING/FGEN ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT AND POCKET OF
STEEP (7.5 C/KM) 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES...WILL SUPPORT THE
EASTWARD MAINTENANCE OF A BAND OF SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL NC DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A "WARMING" DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST
FLOW...INCLUDING A SSW SURFACE BREEZE AND TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S...WILL ENSURE THIS ACTIVITY
WILL FALL AS RAIN.
MONDAY NIGHT: STRONG CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONTAL
PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MILLER-B SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS MOVING
OFF THE NC/VA COAST MONDAY EVENING....MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF
TRANSITION/CHANGE-OVER TO A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES BEFORE PRECIP ENDS
ACROSS THE AREA. NO ACCUMULATIONS/IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS
TUESDAY MORNING IN THE MID 20S NORTHWEST PIEDMONT TO LOWER 30S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 335 1M SUNDAY...
MOISTURE WILL BE SCARCE...BUT PERIODS OF STRONG DCVA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH STOUT VORT LOBES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE ANOMALOUS
DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE(H5 ANOMALIES 2 TO 4 SD BELOW
NORMAL)ACROSS THE EASTERN US WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES
ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.
THE BIG WEATHER STORY HERE WILL BE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH H8 TEMPS IN THE -12 TO -15C RANGE AND LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES BOTTOMING OUT TO AROUND 1240M WEDNESDAY NIGHT...60 TO 70
METERS BELOW NORMAL! HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON FRIDAY AS THE COLD UPPER
TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...
THIS WARMING TREND WILL NOT LAST LONG AS AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERN US TROUGH WILL BRING A
REINFORCEMENT OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY. SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FROZEN PRECIP AS THE UPPER WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.
HOWEVER SINCE MOISTURE IS TYPICALLY LIMITED IN NW FLOW EVENTS...WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 625 AM SUNDAY...
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CIGS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST... WITH VFR CIGS NW TODAY. PERIODS OF MVFR
VSBYS WITH LIGHT RAIN AND FOG EXPECTED FROM KFAY TO KRWI THROUGH
21Z... THEN IMPROVING AS RAIN ENDS. WHILE CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
IN IN TERMS OF PRECIP TYPE...WE STILL HAVE CHALLENGES OF HOW FAR NW
THE PRECIPITATION WILL REACH. IF THE PRECIPITATION REACHES THE KRDU
AREA... IT WOULD BE PREDOMINATELY LIGHT SNOW/SLEET BETWEEN 13Z-18Z
OR SO. THE PRECIP WILL STAY TO THE SE OF THE KGSO AREA.
THE WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AS THE LOW DEVELOPS OFFSHORE TODAY...
TO 10-20KT FROM THE NORTH. GUSTS TO 25KT IN THE KFAY AREA EXPECTED
INTO TONIGHT.
CLEARING TO VFR TONIGHT AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY AND THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10KT OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS....ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS...LATE MONDAY... AND AGAIN MAINLY AT NORTHERN TAF SITES
LATE TUESDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ042-043-078-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT/SMITH
SHORT TERM...BADGETT/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BADGETT/2
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1015 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND MOVE AWAY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1015 AM SUNDAY...
...SHORT FUSE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JOHNSTON...WAYNE...WILSON
AND SAMPSON COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS
REPORTED FROM BURSTS OF HEAVIER SLEET...
MSAS SHOWS A ~1003MB SURFACE LOW EAST OF CHARLESTON SC THIS
MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO A 553DM UPPER LOW PIVOTING OVER THE
SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN. THE PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWEST OF THE LOW
EXTENDS THROUGH THE NC COASTAL PLAIN....WHERE TEMP PROFILES ARE
MARGINAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PTYPES...A SLIGHT WARM NOSE OF 1-2C AT
5K FT AND SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 33-35F RANGE. HOWEVER...IN THE PAST
HOUR OR SO THE RATES HAVE BEEN HIGH ENOUGH FOR MELTING AND
WETBULBING TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF PREDOMINATELY SLEET IN
WILSON....WAYNE...JOHNSTON...AND NORTHERN SAMPSON COUNTIES. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE COUNTIES GIVEN
NUMEROUS TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS. DUAL POL CC SUGGESTS LIGHT TO MODERATE
SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR WEST AS RALEIGH AND SANFORD AS WELL.
RAP AND HRRR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE SMALL WARM NOSE CONTINUING TO COOL
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...SO ITS ENTIRELY POSSIBLY THAT PERIODS OF
MODERATE SLEET MAY PRODUCE A HALF INCH OF SO SLEET....WITH ANOTHER
QUARTER INCH OF QPF STILL POSSIBLE AS THE PRECIP BAND PIVOTS OVER
THE AREA.
A DOWNWARD TEND IN PRECIP...ALBEIT LIKELY VERY SLOW...IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DEEPENS EAST OF CAPE FEAR AND
THEN FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE EAST AND FURTHER OFFSHORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 321 AM SUNDAY...
REGARDLESS OF HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST A COASTAL LOW WOBBLES AS IT
BOMBS OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...THE
RESULTANT DEEP CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND
AWAY FROM THE NC COAST TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A
"KICKER" VORTEX AND ACCOMPANYING ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN SHORT
WAVELENGTH FLOW ALOFT...FORECAST TO PIVOT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO
THE TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS THROUGH EARLY MON. CLEARING SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
AN AREA OF BROAD BUT STRONG 100-150 METER HEIGHT FALLS AND
COOLING/FGEN ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT AND POCKET OF
STEEP (7.5 C/KM) 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES...WILL SUPPORT THE
EASTWARD MAINTENANCE OF A BAND OF SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL NC DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A "WARMING" DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST
FLOW...INCLUDING A SSW SURFACE BREEZE AND TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S...WILL ENSURE THIS ACTIVITY
WILL FALL AS RAIN.
MONDAY NIGHT: STRONG CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONTAL
PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MILLER-B SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS MOVING
OFF THE NC/VA COAST MONDAY EVENING....MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF
TRANSITION/CHANGE-OVER TO A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES BEFORE PRECIP ENDS
ACROSS THE AREA. NO ACCUMULATIONS/IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS
TUESDAY MORNING IN THE MID 20S NORTHWEST PIEDMONT TO LOWER 30S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 335 1M SUNDAY...
MOISTURE WILL BE SCARCE...BUT PERIODS OF STRONG DCVA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH STOUT VORT LOBES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE ANOMALOUS
DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE(H5 ANOMALIES 2 TO 4 SD BELOW
NORMAL)ACROSS THE EASTERN US WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES
ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.
THE BIG WEATHER STORY HERE WILL BE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH H8 TEMPS IN THE -12 TO -15C RANGE AND LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES BOTTOMING OUT TO AROUND 1240M WEDNESDAY NIGHT...60 TO 70
METERS BELOW NORMAL! HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON FRIDAY AS THE COLD UPPER
TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...
THIS WARMING TREND WILL NOT LAST LONG AS AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERN US TROUGH WILL BRING A
REINFORCEMENT OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY. SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FROZEN PRECIP AS THE UPPER WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.
HOWEVER SINCE MOISTURE IS TYPICALLY LIMITED IN NW FLOW EVENTS...WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 625 AM SUNDAY...
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CIGS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST... WITH VFR CIGS NW TODAY. PERIODS OF MVFR
VSBYS WITH LIGHT RAIN AND FOG EXPECTED FROM KFAY TO KRWI THROUGH
21Z... THEN IMPROVING AS RAIN ENDS. WHILE CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
IN IN TERMS OF PRECIP TYPE...WE STILL HAVE CHALLENGES OF HOW FAR NW
THE PRECIPITATION WILL REACH. IF THE PRECIPITATION REACHES THE KRDU
AREA... IT WOULD BE PREDOMINATELY LIGHT SNOW/SLEET BETWEEN 13Z-18Z
OR SO. THE PRECIP WILL STAY TO THE SE OF THE KGSO AREA.
THE WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AS THE LOW DEVELOPS OFFSHORE TODAY...
TO 10-20KT FROM THE NORTH. GUSTS TO 25KT IN THE KFAY AREA EXPECTED
INTO TONIGHT.
CLEARING TO VFR TONIGHT AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY AND THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10KT OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS....ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS...LATE MONDAY... AND AGAIN MAINLY AT NORTHERN TAF SITES
LATE TUESDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT/SMITH
SHORT TERM...BADGETT/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BADGETT/2
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
930 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A BIT IN THE NORTHEAST BASED ON THE LATEST
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. ALSO DECIDED TO HOLD
OFF ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL 12Z TUESDAY DUE TO LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS. IN THE WEST A FLURRY OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...BUT
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE...DO NOT THINK THE CURRENT 0.5 DEGREE RADAR RETURNS FROM
KMBX ARE MAKING THEIR WAY TO THE GROUND. WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY
AND ADJUSTING ACCORDINGLY SHOULD THIS BECOME LESS CERTAIN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 542 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. LATE AFTERNOON 0.5 DEGREE
RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOWS A NARROW LINE OF ECHOES MOVING EAST
AND EXTENDING FROM TIOGA SOUTH TO DICKINSON AND HETTINGER AT 2330
UTC. HOWEVER...WE BELIEVE THE ECHOES REPRESENT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
AND NOT SURFACE PRECIPITATION GIVEN SUB-20 DBZ RETURNS BASED ABOVE
5000 FT AGL. IN FACT...POPS WERE REDUCED SLIGHTLY IN NORTHWEST ND
TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH 03 UTC GIVEN THE DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE TEENS F OVER MUCH OF WESTERN ND
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. RECENT OPERATIONAL HRRR SIMULATIONS ARE MORE
ROBUST WITH LIGHT SNOW IN WESTERN ND LATE TONIGHT THAN THE ESRL-
RUN EXPERIMENTAL HRRR...WHICH ALSO REPRESENTS UNCERTAINTY THAT IS
LIKELY RELATED TO THE DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND WEAK FORCING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
RIDGE RUNNING THROUGH THE WESTERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH LOW NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
WHILE FAST NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER OUR AREA.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER WILL
START THE EVENING WITH BREEZY WINDS DIMINISHING AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY RELAX OVER THE REGION. LATER THIS
EVENING WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT DEVELOPS RESULTING IN MODEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN LOCATIONS...BRINGING A
LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW.
ON TUESDAY...STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL BE SET UP OVER THE
AREA WITH TEENS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND
AROUND 40 OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST. MODEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN IN BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE SET UP OVER WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA. MOST AREAS MAY SEE SOME SNOW...BUT CHANCES
SWITCH TOWARDS RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST AS WARMER AIR TRIES
TO WORK EASTERLY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
A VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CARRY SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS
THESE WAVES APPROACH BRIEF PERIODS OF MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE FIRST SUCH WAVE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CLEARLY
SHOW A WARM LAYER ALOFT...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS AS TO JUST
HOW WARM THIS LAYER IS AND HOW FAR EAST IT WILL PUSH.
HOWEVER...THERE IS AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS BELOW FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE BEST FORCING AND WARM LAYER
ALOFT. AS PRECIPITATION PUSHES FURTHER EAST IT WILL ENCOUNTER
COOLER AIR BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE AND SHOULD TRANSITION OR
REMAIN ALL SNOW. EXACTLY WHERE THIS TRANSITION ZONE WILL SET UP
IS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
LIKELY BE VERY STEEP AND A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
COULD MEAN VERY DIFFERENT PRECIPITATION TYPES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 542 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...BUT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND
CEILINGS WILL LOWER OVER WESTERN ND. ON TUESDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR
CEILINGS ARE FORECAST ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.
A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR-TYPE CEILINGS IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH
THE PROBABILITY OF THAT HIGHEST AT KISN AND KDIK AFTER 15 UTC.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
542 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 542 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. LATE AFTERNOON 0.5 DEGREE
RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOWS A NARROW LINE OF ECHOES MOVING EAST
AND EXTENDING FROM TIOGA SOUTH TO DICKINSON AND HETTINGER AT 2330
UTC. HOWEVER...WE BELIEVE THE ECHOES REPRESENT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
AND NOT SURFACE PRECIPITATION GIVEN SUB-20 DBZ RETURNS BASED ABOVE
5000 FT AGL. IN FACT...POPS WERE REDUCED SLIGHTLY IN NORTHWEST ND
TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH 03 UTC GIVEN THE DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE TEENS F OVER MUCH OF WESTERN ND
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. RECENT OPERATIONAL HRRR SIMULATIONS ARE MORE
ROBUST WITH LIGHT SNOW IN WESTERN ND LATE TONIGHT THAN THE ESRL-
RUN EXPERIMENTAL HRRR...WHICH ALSO REPRESENTS UNCERTAINTY THAT IS
LIKELY RELATED TO THE DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND WEAK FORCING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
RIDGE RUNNING THROUGH THE WESTERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH LOW NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
WHILE FAST NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER OUR AREA.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER WILL
START THE EVENING WITH BREEZY WINDS DIMINISHING AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY RELAX OVER THE REGION. LATER THIS
EVENING WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT DEVELOPS RESULTING IN MODEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN LOCATIONS...BRINGING A
LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW.
ON TUESDAY...STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL BE SET UP OVER THE
AREA WITH TEENS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND
AROUND 40 OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST. MODEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN IN BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE SET UP OVER WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA. MOST AREAS MAY SEE SOME SNOW...BUT CHANCES
SWITCH TOWARDS RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST AS WARMER AIR TRIES
TO WORK EASTERLY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
A VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CARRY SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS
THESE WAVES APPROACH BRIEF PERIODS OF MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE FIRST SUCH WAVE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CLEARLY
SHOW A WARM LAYER ALOFT...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS AS TO JUST
HOW WARM THIS LAYER IS AND HOW FAR EAST IT WILL PUSH.
HOWEVER...THERE IS AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS BELOW FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE BEST FORCING AND WARM LAYER
ALOFT. AS PRECIPITATION PUSHES FURTHER EAST IT WILL ENCOUNTER
COOLER AIR BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE AND SHOULD TRANSITION OR
REMAIN ALL SNOW. EXACTLY WHERE THIS TRANSITION ZONE WILL SET UP
IS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
LIKELY BE VERY STEEP AND A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
COULD MEAN VERY DIFFERENT PRECIPITATION TYPES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 542 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...BUT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND
CEILINGS WILL LOWER OVER WESTERN ND. ON TUESDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR
CEILINGS ARE FORECAST ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.
A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR-TYPE CEILINGS IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH
THE PROBABILITY OF THAT HIGHEST AT KISN AND KDIK AFTER 15 UTC.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1143 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016
LATEST LOCAL/REGIONAL RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A SWATH
OF SNOW ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...SOUTH TO RUGBY...AND HARVEY.
WINDS GUSTING TO 35KT IN THIS AREA AND THE BLIZZARD WARNING WILL
SHORTLY GO INTO EFFECT HERE...THUS CURRENT TIMING LOOKS ON TRACK.
THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION AND GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT SNOW AMOUNTS
BECOMING LIGHTER TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY AND WILL MONITOR CLOSELY
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...A CURRENT LULL IN THE STRONG WINDS WEST
AND CENTRAL WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 35KT. STRONG WINDS WILL RE-EMERGE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST 12Z- 18Z SUNDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. ISALLOBARIC FORCING IN TANDEM WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES OF 8 TO 8.5 C/KM WILL RESULT IN VERY STRONG WINDS.
THE LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW GUSTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER BETWEEN 60-65KT. THUS THE HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN GOOD
STANDING DESPITE THE CURRENT LULL. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED
SUNDAY WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. CURRENT FORECAST
IS ON TRACK FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
ND AT MID EVENING IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER EXPECTED...
SO WE MADE MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH ABOUT 08 UTC TO ACCOUNT
FOR THAT AND RECENT RAP AND HRRR SIMULATIONS. OTHERWISE...WE
MERELY BLENDED OBSERVATIONS INTO THE NEAR-TERM HOURLY FORECAST
FIELDS WITH THIS UPDATE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF OVERALL CHANGE.
NO CHANGES TO OUR HEADLINES...BUT THE BRUNT OF STRONG WINDS IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN MOMENTUM TRANSFER INTO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE MORE UNIFORMLY EFFICIENT ACROSS THE AREA...UNLIKE
THIS EVENING. BLIZZARD POTENTIAL WILL BE DRIVEN ENTIRELY BY THE
AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT FALLS IN THE BLIZZARD-WARNED AREA...WITH THE
00 UTC NAM MUCH MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW SHOWERS THAN RECENT RAP
AND HRRR RUNS. THE LATTER MODELS SUGGEST THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THAT PART OF THE FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 623 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016
WE INCREASED LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT TONIGHT GIVEN EXPECTED MIXING
AND ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BASED ON TEMPERATURE
TRENDS UPSTREAM INTO SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ONLY
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE REST OF THE EVENING FORECAST...AS
SHOWERS ARE INCREASING OVER NORTHWEST ND AND WINDS ARE BEGINNING
TO TREND UPWARD ON A MORE WIDESPREAD BASIS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THAT IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ND AS OF 0015 UTC. WE ARE
MAKING NO CHANGES TO THE HIGH WIND OR BLIZZARD WARNING WITH THIS
UPDATE CYCLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW STRETCHING OVER SASKATCHEWAN
WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA. TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SLIDE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE COLD FRONT IS
WORKING ITS WAY OVER EASTERN MONTANA. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHILE STRONG GUSTS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN/CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES RIDGE AXIS SLIDING INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE WITH
TROUGH WORKING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN INTO EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD
AREA OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/VIRGA CONTINUES TO WORK OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BEHIND THE RIDGE.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WEAK SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE COME
INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING THE UPCOMING WIND/SNOW
EVENT. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST/SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT WITH UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY
EARLY SUNDAY. AS IT MOVES ACROSS...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND WRAP AROUND SNOW WILL DEVELOP TO ITS WEST...PRIMARILY
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE NORTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WHILE THAT OCCURS...COOLER AIRMASS WILL SLIDE
INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL PROMOTE MIXING OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW 50-60KT 850 MB
WINDS. EXPECT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE LEFT THE HIGH WIND WARNING MAINLY IN
TACT BUT HAVE BUMPED UP THE TIMING A BIT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN END.
THE WIND WILL COMBINE WITH THE DEVELOPING SNOW OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY TO BRING GREATLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. THEREFORE...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS UNTOUCHED.
ON SUNDAY...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHING IN BY MID-DAY.
PERIODS OF SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER AREA UNDER BLIZZARD
WARNING. ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...WITH THE STRONG WINDS IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO RESULT IN
ZERO VISIBILITY IN OPEN COUNTRY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016
RESIDUAL BLOWING SNOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG WINDS AND LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT. H850 WINDS ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE AT 50-60 KNOTS FROM THE
GFS SUNDAY EVENING...THEN WEAKENS A BIT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BUT
SLOWLY SUNDAY NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE BLIZZARD WARNING (WHICH
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING) MAY NEED TO BE "CHANGED" TO
A HIGH WIND WARNING OR A WIND ADVISORY AT THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT.
MODELS ARE INDICATING LINGERING STRONG WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND DURING
THE DAY MONDAY...BUT MAY NOT REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY.
THEREAFTER THE UPPER LOW EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP INTO A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST WITH A LARGE H500 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND CANADA. THIS LEAVES A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL PRETTY MUCH DEFINE THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH MILD AIR SOUTHWEST AND COLD TEMPERATURES EAST. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS WILL RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW DURING THE WEEK...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016
STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 55KT WILL EMERGE AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY BEGINNING IN NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA/KISN AND KMOT...AND
PUSH INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 18Z SUNDAY.
ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG WINDS...CIGS/VSBYS WILL DETERIORATE TO
MVFR STATUS WITH SCATTERED SNOWSHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW UNTIL 03Z
MONDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR NDZ003-
011-012-019>022-034-042-045.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ001-
002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ004-005-013-023-
025.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ035>037-046>048-
050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
525 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE SOME THIS
EVENING. BREEZY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY BUT NOT AS
STRONG AS THE WINDS TODAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/
DISCUSSION...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST
FOCUS.
CURRENTLY... DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA... WHERE MESONET AND ASOS OBS HAVE CONSISTENTLY REPORTED
DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO ZERO AND NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS
IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS. COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY... 40 TO 50 KT...
N/NW WINDS... SEVERAL HOT SPOTS CONTINUE TO POP UP ON 3.9 IR
INDICATING ACTIVE FIRE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. AS AN ASIDE...
IMPRESSED WITH MESO GUIDANCE... SPECIFICALLY THE HRRR AND
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR/S HANDLING OF DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN
TEMPS LATE THIS MORNING... WAS NOT ANTICIPATING DEW POINTS TO REACH
ZERO LET ALONE NEGATIVE VALUES OUT WEST. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 6 PM...WHERE CONDITIONS POSE THE GREATEST
CONCERN. HOWEVER... AS INDICATED BY 3.9 IR ACTIVITY TODAY... FIRES
REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. MANY FIRES ARE
ACCIDENTAL... PLEASE USE GOOD JUDGMENT... REFRAIN FROM PERFORMING
ACTIVITIES NEAR OR OVER GRASS THAT COULD EASILY SPARK A FIRE...
SUCH AS WELDING... DRAGGING CHAINS... USING POWER TOOLS... OR
PARKING CARS ON GRASS. ALSO... KEEP YOUR BUTTS IN YOUR CAR... DO
NOT THROW CIGARETTE BUTTS OUT YOUR WINDOW.
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY... N/NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH
SUNSET... REMAINING BREEZY THROUGH THE EVENING TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND THE
EASTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO WRAP EASTWARD ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY.
W/NW WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES S/SE ALONG THE LLANO ESTACADO. EXPECT GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY... INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
CONFIDENCE IN INCREASED DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
TOWARDS THE CAPROCK WILL RESULT IN INCREASED TEMPS FROM THE
PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. HIGHS COULD EASILY
REACH THE LOWER 70S IN NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND... MILD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS A SFC TROUGH SLIDES S/SE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTLE H500 SHORT WAVE. WITH THE SHIFTING OF THE
UPPER RIDGE TOWARDS THE ROCKIES INTO SATURDAY... AN AREA OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE UPPER MISSOURI VALLEY
TOWARD THE OZARKS... ALLOWING COOLER TEMPS TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY... AS S/SW WINDS
GRADUALLY INCREASE. PRESENTLY... EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH
AND HIGHS IN THE 50S. THEREFORE... WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON NEXT
WEEKEND FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
JTK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 27 55 30 67 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 30 63 32 69 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 29 64 32 73 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 25 65 25 72 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 25 49 25 60 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 33 55 34 63 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005>008-010>013-
015>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ021-022-
033>038-044.
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ086-089-090.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
11/25/25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1242 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WHILE STRONG LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...USHERING IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM...THE WEAK RADAR ECHOES HAVE DIMINISHED WITH FLURRY
REPORTS ENDING. STILL EXPECT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TO REMAIN EAST
OF THE CWFA...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE WELL EAST
OF I-77 OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE POTENT CLOSED
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST TOWARD THE AL/GA BORDER LATE THIS
EVENING...AND ASSOCIATED RAPID CYCLOGENESIS UNDERWAY OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COASTLINE. DESPITE THE EVENING EXCITEMENT OF BRIEF FROZEN
PRECIP FALLING FROM HIGH CLOUD BASES...THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR
OUR FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO BE LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF A CHESTER
SC TO MONROE NC LINE. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES OVER WHERE
ANY HEAVIER BANDING STRUCTURES MIGHT SET UP WEST OF THE OFFSHORE
LOW...WITH EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN SECTIONS OF THE
CAROLINAS THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATES. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER
FRONTOGENESIS COULD WELL WRAP SHOWERY ACTIVITY WESTWARD THROUGH THE
PIEDMONT TO OVERLAP WITH THE INCREASINGLY COLD PROFILES NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR. THE LATEST RAP AND NAM WET BULB PROFILES
NEAR CLT DEPICT SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN ALL BUT THE VERY LOWEST
FEW HUNDRED FEET OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT SNOW
VERSUS RAIN AS THE PRIMARY PTYPE WITH ANY SHOWERS REACHING WESTWARD
INTO THE LOWER PIEDMONT. POPS HAVE BEEN PUSHED INTO THE LOW LIKELY
RANGE FOR FAR SE UNION COUNTY NC AND A DUSTING OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON GRASSY SURFACES THERE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPS WERE COOLED SLIGHTLY BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS...DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION...AND SOME
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING IN SPOTS.
ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH REACHING THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
FURTHER DEEPEN THE OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE DAY. OUR REGION
SHOULD REMAIN DRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING DEEPER MOISTURE...BUT GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD
MAKE IT BACK TO AROUND NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BY THE TIME THE FRONT
ARRIVES...LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE UPPER
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. 12Z GFS360 INDICATES THAT A LARGE FIELD OF
BROAD Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NE GA ON MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AND
PASSING MID LEVEL SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL SUPPORT PRECIP CHCS
SPREADING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
BETWEEN 18Z MON TO 0Z TUES...H85 WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NW AND
INCREASE TO 25-30 KTS...SUPPORTING UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE TN BORDER.
GIVEN THE SFC TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES...PRECIP
SHOULD FALL AS EITHER SNOW OR A COLD RAIN. SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE MTNS IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOULD MIX OVER TO RAIN WITHIN THE
VALLEY FLOOR BY MID DAY. TEMPS ACROSS THE RIDGES SHOULD YIELD HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWFALL THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. AREAS EAST OF THE
MTNS SHOULD SEE ONLY RAINFALL AS HIGH TEMPS WARM TO THE 40S ACROSS
THE REGION.
MODERATE TO STRONG H85 CAA WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MTN LOCATIONS COOLING TO -12 TO -14 C BY 12Z
TUES. MIN TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE TEENS ACROSS THE MTNS
TO LOW 20S WITHIN THE VALLEYS...UPPER 20S TO THE EAST. COLD H85
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE MTNS THROUGH THE DAY...SUPPORTED BY
THICK CLOUD COVER AND GUSTY NW WINDS. CATE TO LIKELY POPS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING...REDUCING
TO CHC POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOOTHILL TO PIEDMONT AREAS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY DRY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
THE MTNS TO AROUND 40 EAST. MON AND TUES...TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECAST
GIVES 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS TO 1-2
INCHES ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF THE TN BORDER COUNTIES. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...ONE MORE PIECE OF CHANNELED VORTICITY WILL
DIVE THRU THE EASTERN CONUS TROF TUESDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING QG
FORCING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. FROM WEDNESDAY THRU
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE EASTERN TROF WILL LIFT OUT SOMEWHAT...RESULTING
IN MORE ZONAL FLOW ATOP THE CWFA. THEN ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORT WAVE
SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CARVE OUT THE
EASTERN TROF AGAIN BY SATURDAY.
AT THE SFC...A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE GRADUALLY FILLING
OVER THE NORTHEAST...KEEPING OUR AREA UNDER PERSISTENT LLVL NWLY
FLOW. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BANK UP ALONG THE USUAL NW FLOW
UPSLOPE AREAS...BUT SHUD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE TN LINE...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT
THRU WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE AREA SHUD BE MOSTLY CLEAR
AND QUITE CHILLY. THICKNESSES AND 850 MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH STILL SOME CAA AND WINDS TO MAKE FOR SOME WIND
CHILL CONCERNS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS SHUD BE
GENERALLY LIGHT...BUT SOME SORT OF WINTER WX OR WIND CHILL ADV WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED UNTIL THINGS WIND DOWN. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE NEXT SYSTEM...BUT THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE EXACT TIMING AND ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT. FOR NOW...I WILL INTRODUCE A SLGT CHC OF SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE TN LINE FRIDAY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE
ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...WITH WIND CHILLS
BELOW ZERO ABOVE ABOUT 3500 FT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THEN TEMPS
WILL MODERATE BACK TO ONLY A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW NORMAL BY
FRIDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR BRINGING TEMPS BACK DOWN
5 TO 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT....MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AIRFIELD THRU THE
MORNING AS A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES TO AND UP THE CAROLINA COAST. A
BRIEF SNOW FLURRY IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT ANY
SNOW SHOWER BANDS WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST OF THE AIRFIELD.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS SCATTER OUT BY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES INTO
THE EVENING. LIGHT NNE WINDS THIS MORNING INCREASE IN SPEED AND
BECOME GUSTY BY AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH AND THRU NWLY THIS
EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT
NLY WIND BECOMES GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIMINISHING WINDS THIS
EVENING. WINDS REMAIN NLY AT KAVL THIS EVENING ...BUT TURN WLY AT
KHKY AND W TO SW FOR THE UPSTATE SITES.
OUTLOOK...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...
MOISTURE...AND REINFORCING COLDER AIR ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOST LIKELY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
05-11Z 11-17Z 17-23Z 23-00Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...HG/RWH
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...RWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
327 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ROTATING THROUGH
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH TRAILING SHORTWAVE SLIDING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS
INDICATING AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS DRIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
MID AND LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WITH THIS WAVE. WOULD EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO SLIDE OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AS
THE SHORTWAVE DRIFTS OFF INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA/SOUTHERN IOWA BY
EVENING. STILL SEEING SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THESE SLIDE INTO
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA DURING THE EVENING...THOUGH BEING
MAINLY INSTABILITY DRIVEN MAY BECOME LESS NUMEROUS BY MID EVENING.
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY HANDLED TODAYS SYSTEM VERY
POORLY...OVERESTIMATING QPF AMOUNTS AND MISPLACING PRECIPITATION TOO
FAR TO THE EAST. CURRENT EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AND RAP HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE ON CURRENT TRENDS SO FOLLOWED THEM MORE CLOSELY FOR THE
FORECAST INTO TONIGHT. WHAT HAS VERIFIED BETTER TODAY HAS BEEN THE
WINDS...WITH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET. EVEN
SO...VISIBILITIES HAVE REMAINED JUST EITHER SIDE OF 2 MILES EVEN
WHEN SNOW IS OCCURRING AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABOVE FREEZING AND
MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS SETTLED AND BECOME WET...PREVENTING ANY LOFTING
OF THE SNOW. AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...MODELS...IF THEY
CAN BE BELIEVED...STILL HINTING AT SOME DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW IN
OUR EAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER MINNESOTA ROTATES SOUTHWARD. THE QUESTION BECOMES WILL THIS
BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO AREAS IN THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNING. BASED ON TODAYS TRENDS WOULD THINK THAT IT
IS ON THE LOW END OF PROBABILITY...BUT AFTER COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES ELECTED TO LEAVE THE HEADLINE IN PLACE FOR
NOW...THOUGH DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE WARNING. DEPENDENT ON THE
TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING...FUTURE SHIFT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE
HEADLINE AS NEEDED. IN ANY EVENT...ANY SNOWFALL LOOKS TO REMAIN VERY
LIGHT...AT GENERALLY AROUND A HALF AN INCH OR LESS.
OTHERWISE...THE STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY...BEFORE TAPERING DOWNWARD FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
ANY VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST IN OUR FAR EAST THROUGH MID
DAY...THEN COME TO AND END BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
ON MONDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS FAR
EAST TO LOWER 30S FAR WEST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
AGAIN TODAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN RUNNING
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FAIRLY PRONOUNCED
SINE WAVE ACROSS THE CONUS...BRINGING COLD WEATHER TO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS...AND WARM WEATHER TO THE WESTERN HALF. WE WILL
BE STUCK IN-BETWEEN THESE TWO AIRMASS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
WEAK IMPULSES OF WARMER AIR TRYING TO MOVE EAST LEADING TO LIGHT
SNOW CHANCES. AGAIN...GIVEN THE SUBTLE NATURE OF THESE
WAVE...MODELS HAVING A HARD TIME FIGURING OUT WHEN THE BEST FOCUS
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND. CONSIDERABLE OSCILLATIONS IN
ECMWF/GFS GUIDANCE CONTINUES...AND AT THIS POINT...CAN ONLY SEE
HAVING SLIGHT TO LOW END CHC POPS. OF MORE CERTAINTY IS THAT NO
MAJOR SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEMS ARE ON THE HORIZON THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL
MINNESOTA MAY BE IN THE TEENS...WHILE READINGS IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA COULD CLIMB INTO THE 30S EACH DAY. TODAYS GUIDANCE HAS
NUDGED COLDER AIR A BIT FURTHER WESTWARD...SO AS A RESULT
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO TRENDED A COUPLE DEGREES COLDER FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...AND
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AND PERSIST INTO LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL NOT BE CONTINUOUS HOWEVER...BEING SCATTERED IN
NATURE...AND THERE WILL BE LOCALIZED VARIATION IN VISIBILITIES
THROUGH THE PERIOD DEPENDENT ON WHEN SNOW IS FALLING.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY STRONG...CONTRIBUTING
TO BLOWING SNOW...MORE SO WHEN SNOW IS ACTUALLY OCCURRING.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR SDZ038-039-052>056-
058>062-064>071.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR SDZ040.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ050-057-063.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ098.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-097.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
MNZ081-089-090.
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR IAZ001-012-020-031.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
IAZ002-003-013-014-021-022-032.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR NEZ013-014.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
848 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRAVEL ACROSS THE
CWA THIS EVENING. GETTING REPORTS OF A TRACE UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES
SO FAR AS WELL AS SOME SLICK ROADS DUE TO TEMPS FALLING BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA. UPGRADED A FEW MORE COUNTIES ALONG THE
I65/I24 CORRIDOR NORTH OF NASHVILLE TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
EARLIER THIS EVENING AS ADDITIONAL SNOW HAS CAUSED TRAVEL IMPACTS.
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING...WET ROADS WILL BECOME
ICY AND LOOK TO IMPACT MORNING TRAVEL IN THE ADVISORY COUNTIES.
THE HRRR AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS DRAG ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BUT THEY DO APPEAR
WEAKER THAN WHAT THE AREA HAS SEEN SO FAR. KEPT THE FORECAST
MAINLY AS IT WAS...WITH MINOR TWEAKS TO CURRENT OBS AND UPDATED
MODEL TRENDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS TO BETTER MATCH
THE SHORT TERM MODELS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE REST OF THE FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
DEEP UPPER CYCLONE ACROSS EASTERN U.S. WITH PIN-WHEELING
VORTICIES ROTATING THROUGH WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME SNOW BURSTS SO
PILOTS NEED TO BE AWARE THAT VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS CAN QUICKLY
LOWER.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR CHEATHAM-
CLAY-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-DE KALB-FENTRESS-GRUNDY-JACKSON-MACON-
MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-SMITH-SUMNER-
TROUSDALE-VAN BUREN-WARREN-WHITE-WILSON.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........01/BOYD
LONG TERM..................06/BARNWELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
1046 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS AVIATION AFD REASONING.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z
TONIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO FANFARE OTHER THAN WINDS BECOMING NW TO N
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING.
ANDRADE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z TONIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO FANFARE OTHER THAN
WINDS BECOMING NW TO N BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LITTLE TO NO CLOUDINESS
AND NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ANDRADE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WERE
PRESENT ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK LEE SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM EASTERN COLORADO
INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS
MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE IS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR AND RAP PV ANALYSIS NOW
EMERGING ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM BROADENS AND MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION IT WILL FORCE A WEAK
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN NORTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS BY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT GIVEN ONLY WEAK
POST FRONTAL SURFACE PRESSURE RISES SHOWN IN SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINING QUITE DRY
AND ASIDE FROM SOME THIN CIRRUS PASSING THROUGH...NO CLOUDS OR
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BRB
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.. THIS PATTERN STAYS IN PLACE
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. AT THE SURFACE...LEESIDE TROUGHING SETS UP AND WE WILL
SEE A GRADUAL WARMING OF TEMPERATURES. BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE LOW 60S AND UPPER 70S.
WEST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES SOME ON THURSDAY...AND
BEGINS SHIFTING EASTWARD. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND FORCE A WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA FRIDAY...BUT WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES STILL REMAINING WARM AND NO APPRECIABLE COLD AIR
INTRUDING...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. SOME
QUESTION FOR THE WEEKEND IF MORE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAN APPROACH
THE AREA AND GIVE EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR POPS...BUT FOR NOW THINGS
LOOK DRY.
ELSENHEIMER
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
857 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG CYCLONE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SINK
SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING.
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CUTOFF AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE COLDEST OF THE AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL TUESDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE WEEK RESULTING IN A PROLONGED SNOW SHOWER
EVENT ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 850 PM EST MONDAY...
TRANSITIONING MORE TOWARD UPSLOPE REGIME AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
NIGHT. BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW FADING ACROSS ROCKBRIDGE/BATH COUNTY
ATTM. UPSTREAM...SNOW SHOWERS ARE SCATTERED FROM THE KY/VA BORDER
INTO PORTIONS OF NE TN...AND ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU OF TN
NEAR I-75. MODELS FAVOR THE NEXT ROUND REACHING SRN WV INTO FAR
NW NC BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1 AM. THIS WILL BE PUTTING DOWN ANOTHER
INCH OF SNOW...WITH POTENTIALLY HIGHER ON THE RIDGES. MESOANALYSIS
STILL SHOWING SOME FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH RESPECT TO HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NC/TN BORDER...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
CONDITIONS FOR INCREASE IN SNOW AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE...EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR UP SOME BEFORE NW FLOW
INCREASES BRINGING MORE CLOUDS IN LATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARL EVENING...
FOCUS IS ON TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW IN THE WEST...BUT OVERALL
RADAR COVERAGE IS MORE SCATTERED THAN CATEGORICAL IN TERMS OF
POPS. WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO THE 22Z HRRR AND 18Z LOCAL WRF AS IT
SLIDES A NARROW BAND OF SNOW ACROSS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
SHENANDOAH VLY AND BLUE RIDGE NORTH OF CARROLL COUNTY VA THROUGH
EVENING. THERE IS SOME GOOD REFLECTIVITY SIGNATURES AND WITH
COLDER AIR ALOFT WE HAVE HAD SOME THUNDERSNOW REPORTS. SOME AREAS
COULD SEE A GOOD 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IN A 1 HOUR PERIOD AND AN SPS
WILL COVER THIS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
ONCE THIS MESOLOW ALONG THE FRONT OVER SW VA MOVES EAST
EXPECT A DRIER PERIOD BUT UPSLOPE KICKS IN.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY AFTERNOON...
TODAY`S PRECIPITATION DID NOT START UNTIL LATE IN THE
MORNING...WHICH ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO PEAK IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWERS 40S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
EAST. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BROUGHT SOME SNOW
TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND WHITE RAIN TO THE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS PRECIPITATION LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON BY 5F OR SO. BECAUSE THE WARM BOUNDARY IS SO
SHALLOW...SNOW WAS ABLE TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND EVEN...THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WERE ABOVE FREEZING.
THE FIRST COLD FRONT...LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT. THIS FRONT MAY BE A FEW HOURS
SLOWER TO CLEAR THE AREA...AS A SURFACE REFLECTION DEVELOPS ALONG
THE FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION
WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SNOW OR WHITE RAIN ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND A COLD RAIN IN THE EAST. A SECOND COLD FRONT
WITH ARCTIC AIR WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION AHEAD AND BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE ALL SNOW WITH
ACCUMULATIONS PRIMARILY ALONG WESTERN SLOPES. WESTERN SLOPES OF
GREENBRIER AND SUMMERS COUNTY COULD SEE 2-3 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. WESTERN SLOPES FROM THE BLUEFIELD-RICHLANDS AREA TO
THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTY
COULD HAVE 1-2 INCHES...POSSIBLE 3-4 INCHES ABOVE 4000 FT.
FOR HEADLINES...WE WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE FIRST FRONT THROUGH 6PM THIS EVENING FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.
WE WILL ALLOW THIS ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. WE WILL THEN UPGRADE THE
CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR WESTERN
SLOPES OF GREENBRIER COUNTY SOUTH INTO SUMMERS AND MERCER COUNTY.
OTHER COUNTIES IN THE WATCH WILL BE CHANGED TO A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS TO THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AND
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTY. AT THIS TIME...NO OTHER
COUNTIES WILL HAVE HEADLINES TO INCLUDED THE NEW RIVER AND ROANOKE
VALLEYS...WHO MAY SEE SOME SNOW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ONLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SHORT
WAVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...IN THE RANGE OF -30 TO -36 WILL PROVIDE SOME
LIFT AND RELATIVE INSTABILITY. THIS SHOULD EXTEND SNOW SHOWERS
WELL EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
ROANOKE. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP...REACHING -18
TO -20 BY 12Z/7AM THURSDAY. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN BUT SUBTLE DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN SPEED AND LOCATION OF
SHORT WAVED EMBEDDED IN THE LARGE UPPER TROF.
ENOUGH COLD AIR COMING IN THAT WESTERN SLOPE LOCATIONS AND AREAS
WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL HAVE STEADY OR EVEN SLIGHTLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS OF 25:1 BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH DRY AIR AND DOWNSLOPING
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO HAVE SOME CLEARING EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST MONDAY...
EASTERN UPPER TROF GETS RE-ENFORCED FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THEN TROF AXIS MOVES OF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS BRING A CLIPPER ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
MONDAY THEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY TUESDAY. WPC SUGGESTED
THE TRACK OFF THE ECMWF MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH.
SOME 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR. BEST LIFT LOOKS
TO BE ON FRIDAY WITH SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE. SNOW SHOULD BE MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN JUST UPSLOPE. THEN GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW WIND
CHILL VALUES ON FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST
850 MB WINDS APPROACHING 50 KNOTS. WIND CHILLS WILL AGAIN BE IN
ADVISORY CRITERIA...BETWEEN -5 TO -19 IN THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.
A ROUGHLY 1045 MB SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ENOUGH WITH
THE APPROACH OF THIS HIGH...AND WITH THE ASSOCIATED DRY AIR...TO
END UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EST MONDAY...
NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS BCB/ROA BETWEEN
00Z-01Z...AND ALSO LWB. THERE WILL BE SOME IFR OR LOWER VSBYS WITH
THIS BUT SHORT LIVED. OVERALL LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT MOST TAF
SITES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...EXCEPTION BEING BLF WHERE UPSLOPE WILL
PROVIDE SOME IFR CIGS. A STRONGER UPPER VORT MOVING ACROSS SW VA
TOWARD 12Z EXPECTED TO BRING AN ENHANCEMENT IN SNOW SHOWERS AT
BLF/LWB REACHING BCB BY 13Z. HOW FAR EAST THIS GETS IS DEBATABLE
BUT WILL LEAVE ROA/LYH/DAN VFR ONCE NW FLOW KICKS IN.
THIS ENHANCEMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS 12-16Z WILL LIKELY RESULT IN IFR
AT TIMES BLF WITH MVFR AT LWB/BCB...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT IFR WITH
THIS.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SUB-VFR SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN
SLOPES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK WITH PROLONGED MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT KBLF/KLWB IN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. POTENTIAL ALSO FOR PERIODS OF MVFR AT
KBCB/KROA AS IMPULSES ROTATE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND BANDS OF
SNOW DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FLURRIES MAY ALSO
OCCUR AS FAR EAST AS THE PIEDMONT WHERE INTERVALS OF VFR TO MVFR
CIGS COULD ALSO OCCUR.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN TO MAINLY VFR THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND MOISTURE DECREASES.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH MAY BRING SUB VFR
CONDITIONS WITH WINTRY PRECIP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES BY SAT MORNING WITH GUSTY WINDS AND UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS WITH SUB VFR IN THE MTNS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ007-
009>012-015-019-020.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ042>044-
507.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ043-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...RCS/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
651 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG CYCLONE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SINK
SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING.
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CUTOFF AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE COLDEST OF THE AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL TUESDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE WEEK RESULTING IN A PROLONGED SNOW SHOWER
EVENT ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 615 PM EST MONDAY...
FOCUS IS ON TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW IN THE WEST...BUT OVERALL
RADAR COVERAGE IS MORE SCATTERED THAN CATEGORICAL IN TERMS OF
POPS. WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO THE 22Z HRRR AND 18Z LOCAL WRF AS IT
SLIDES A NARROW BAND OF SNOW ACROSS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
SHENANDOAH VLY AND BLUE RIDGE NORTH OF CARROLL COUNTY VA THROUGH
EVENING. THERE IS SOME GOOD REFLECTIVITY SIGNATURES AND WITH
COLDER AIR ALOFT WE HAVE HAD SOME THUNDERSNOW REPORTS. SOME AREAS
COULD SEE A GOOD 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IN A 1 HOUR PERIOD AND AN SPS
WILL COVER THIS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
ONCE THIS MESOLOW ALONG THE FRONT OVER SW VA MOVES EAST
EXPECT A DRIER PERIOD BUT UPSLOPE KICKS IN.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY AFTERNOON...
TODAY`S PRECIPITATION DID NOT START UNTIL LATE IN THE
MORNING...WHICH ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO PEAK IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWERS 40S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
EAST. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BROUGHT SOME SNOW
TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND WHITE RAIN TO THE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS PRECIPITATION LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON BY 5F OR SO. BECAUSE THE WARM BOUNDARY IS SO
SHALLOW...SNOW WAS ABLE TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND EVEN...THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WERE ABOVE FREEZING.
THE FIRST COLD FRONT...LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT. THIS FRONT MAY BE A FEW HOURS
SLOWER TO CLEAR THE AREA...AS A SURFACE REFLECTION DEVELOPS ALONG
THE FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION
WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SNOW OR WHITE RAIN ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND A COLD RAIN IN THE EAST. A SECOND COLD FRONT
WITH ARCTIC AIR WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION AHEAD AND BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE ALL SNOW WITH
ACCUMULATIONS PRIMARILY ALONG WESTERN SLOPES. WESTERN SLOPES OF
GREENBRIER AND SUMMERS COUNTY COULD SEE 2-3 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. WESTERN SLOPES FROM THE BLUEFIELD-RICHLANDS AREA TO
THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTY
COULD HAVE 1-2 INCHES...POSSIBLE 3-4 INCHES ABOVE 4000 FT.
FOR HEADLINES...WE WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE FIRST FRONT THROUGH 6PM THIS EVENING FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.
WE WILL ALLOW THIS ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. WE WILL THEN UPGRADE THE
CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR WESTERN
SLOPES OF GREENBRIER COUNTY SOUTH INTO SUMMERS AND MERCER COUNTY.
OTHER COUNTIES IN THE WATCH WILL BE CHANGED TO A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS TO THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AND
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTY. AT THIS TIME...NO OTHER
COUNTIES WILL HAVE HEADLINES TO INCLUDED THE NEW RIVER AND ROANOKE
VALLEYS...WHO MAY SEE SOME SNOW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ONLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SHORT
WAVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...IN THE RANGE OF -30 TO -36 WILL PROVIDE SOME
LIFT AND RELATIVE INSTABILITY. THIS SHOULD EXTEND SNOW SHOWERS
WELL EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
ROANOKE. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP...REACHING -18
TO -20 BY 12Z/7AM THURSDAY. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN BUT SUBTLE DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN SPEED AND LOCATION OF
SHORT WAVED EMBEDDED IN THE LARGE UPPER TROF.
ENOUGH COLD AIR COMING IN THAT WESTERN SLOPE LOCATIONS AND AREAS
WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL HAVE STEADY OR EVEN SLIGHTLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS OF 25:1 BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH DRY AIR AND DOWNSLOPING
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO HAVE SOME CLEARING EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST MONDAY...
EASTERN UPPER TROF GETS RE-ENFORCED FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THEN TROF AXIS MOVES OF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS BRING A CLIPPER ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
MONDAY THEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY TUESDAY. WPC SUGGESTED
THE TRACK OFF THE ECMWF MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH.
SOME 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR. BEST LIFT LOOKS
TO BE ON FRIDAY WITH SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE. SNOW SHOULD BE MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN JUST UPSLOPE. THEN GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW WIND
CHILL VALUES ON FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST
850 MB WINDS APPROACHING 50 KNOTS. WIND CHILLS WILL AGAIN BE IN
ADVISORY CRITERIA...BETWEEN -5 TO -19 IN THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.
A ROUGHLY 1045 MB SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ENOUGH WITH
THE APPROACH OF THIS HIGH...AND WITH THE ASSOCIATED DRY AIR...TO
END UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EST MONDAY...
NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS BCB/ROA BETWEEN
00Z-01Z...AND ALSO LWB. THERE WILL BE SOME IFR OR LOWER VSBYS WITH
THIS BUT SHORT LIVED. OVERALL LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT MOST TAF
SITES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...EXCEPTION BEING BLF WHERE UPSLOPE WILL
PROVIDE SOME IFR CIGS. A STRONGER UPPER VORT MOVING ACROSS SW VA
TOWARD 12Z EXPECTED TO BRING AN ENHANCEMENT IN SNOW SHOWERS AT
BLF/LWB REACHING BCB BY 13Z. HOW FAR EAST THIS GETS IS DEBATABLE
BUT WILL LEAVE ROA/LYH/DAN VFR ONCE NW FLOW KICKS IN.
THIS ENHANCEMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS 12-16Z WILL LIKELY RESULT IN IFR
AT TIMES BLF WITH MVFR AT LWB/BCB...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT IFR WITH
THIS.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SUB-VFR SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN
SLOPES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK WITH PROLONGED MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT KBLF/KLWB IN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. POTENTIAL ALSO FOR PERIODS OF MVFR AT
KBCB/KROA AS IMPULSES ROTATE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND BANDS OF
SNOW DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FLURRIES MAY ALSO
OCCUR AS FAR EAST AS THE PIEDMONT WHERE INTERVALS OF VFR TO MVFR
CIGS COULD ALSO OCCUR.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN TO MAINLY VFR THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND MOISTURE DECREASES.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH MAY BRING SUB VFR
CONDITIONS WITH WINTRY PRECIP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES BY SAT MORNING WITH GUSTY WINDS AND UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS WITH SUB VFR IN THE MTNS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ007-
009>012-015-019-020.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ042>044-
507.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ043-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...RCS/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1157 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. A
STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST BUT PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 940 PM EST SATURDAY...
JUST A FEW MINOR TWEAKS MADE IN THIS PACKAGE. ADJUSTED SKY COVER
BASED ON CURRENT IR OBSERVATIONS. FURTHER SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPERATURE VALUES BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AT THIS HOUR...AND
BASED ON THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN THE MID CLOUD DECK MAINLY EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS BY MIDNIGHT.
PREVIOUSLY VALID DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST WITH
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HEADING NORTH
OFF THE FLORIDA COAST TO ALONG THE GULF STREAM BY MORNING. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAN HIGH/MID CLOUDS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT EARLY ON BEFORE THE SYSTEMS START TO
PHASE AND ATTEMPT TO LEAN DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INLAND. HOWEVER HOW
FAR TO THE NW THIS OCCURS REMAINS IFFY GIVEN SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE
AND DEVELOPING SURFACE-7H NORTHERLY FLOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WITHIN A TIGHT
DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE BACK OF THE COASTAL LOW JUST TO THE SE
THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER THE GFS/CMC DO TOUCH THE FAR CORNER OF THE
PIEDMONT WITH A FLURRY/SPRINKLE WHILE THE HRRR AND LOCAL RNK-WRF
LOOK A BIT MORE OMINOUS IN BRINGING PRECIP JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA
LATE. SINCE THESE STILL APPEAR TO BE OUTLIERS ATTM WILL ONLY BEEF
UP CLOUDS SE LATE TONIGHT BUT STAY DRY FOR NOW PENDING LATER
TRENDS. OTRW WILL RUN WITH A PC FORECAST OVERALL FOR HIGH CLOUDS
THIS EVENING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY SE THIRD OVERNIGHT.
LOWS AGAIN DEPENDENT UPON THE CLOUD CANOPY AS GIVEN LOW DEWPOINTS
COULD QUICKLY FALL BACK INTO THE 20S SOONER. THUS GOING ON THE
COLDER SIDE OF MOS OVERALL WHICH STILL SUPPORTS LOW/MID 20S
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 30 SE.
SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS HEADING ALONG THE GULF STREAM SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW CATCHES UP AND HELPS SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN. GUIDANCE AGAIN
DEPICTS AN INTENSE BUT VERY COMPACT SYSTEM OFFSHORE WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT BETWEEN CLOUDS AND DEFORMATION PRECIP ON THE NW SIDE OUT EAST.
HOWEVER STILL APPEARS THAT BETWEEN DRY AIR IN PLACE AND SOME EASTWARD
BOOT VIA THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE KICKER THAT MOST DEEP MOISTURE
SHOULD AGAIN STAY JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY MORNING BUT
SOMETHING STILL TO WATCH. THEREFORE PLAN TO STAY DRY WITH MORE SUN WEST
AND CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO MORE SUN DURING THE DAY EAST AS THE MID DECK
CANOPY SLOWLY FADES AND SHIFTS EAST. WINDS MAY TURN GUSTY AS WELL
SUNDAY OUT EAST ON THE PERIMETER OF THE CYCLONE WHILE OVERALL WARMING
ALOFT TAKES PLACE. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S WEST AND
PERHAPS SOME 50S JUST IN THE LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON THE EDGE OF THE
EASTERN CLOUD SHIELD PENDING HOW FAST IT EXITS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT SATURDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS
OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL SPIN UP AN INTENSE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. THE MODELS KEEP THE CWA DRY...BUT
SOME CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER OVER THE PIEDMONT. AS THE COASTAL LOW
EXITS ON MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC. A
POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD
PROVIDE LIGHT SNOW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING MONDAY. THE 12Z
ECMWF SEEMS TOO SLOW WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND THE
APPROACHING ARCTIC AIR...WHILE THE 12Z GFS MAY BE TOO BULLISH WITH
QPF. PRECIPITATION TYPE BECOMES MORE PROBLEMATIC IN THE
PIEDMONT...AS FLURRIES BEGIN OVER THE PIEDMONT BEFORE CHANGING TO
RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S. THE RAIN WOULD CHANGE
BACK TO FLURRIES BY MONDAY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES DROP.
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD BY TUESDAY...AS A DEEP
ARCTIC AIR MASS SPILLS OVER THE CWA. WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING
520 DAM AND MODEL SOUNDINGS PORTRAYING A NEARLY SATURATED CLOUD
LAYER UP TO -30 C FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY...THE
UPSLOPE SNOW MACHINE WILL BE HUMMING AT FULL POWER ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES. WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES APPEAR LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS
DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SO IT HAS BEEN MENTIONED IN THE HWO.
AREAS TO THE EAST MAY STILL A FEW FLURRIES FLYING IN THE NORTHWEST
WIND...BUT NO ACCUMULATION WILL BE REALIZED AFTER THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
DEPARTS OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE HELD BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD DUE TO PERSISTENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION. ONE LAST CONCERN COULD BE THE WIND CHILL ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS THESE VALUES MAY DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BY DAWN...AND POSSIBLY HIT ZERO ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EST SATURDAY...
A DEEP ARCTIC AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP THE UPSLOPE SNOW MACHINE IN ACTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES...BUT THE PIEDMONT SHOULD STAY DRY FROM THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE SNOWFALL THREAT WILL DECREASE LATER IN
THE WORK WEEK...THE THREAT FOR LOW WIND CHILL VALUES WILL INCREASE.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS PROJECT THAT THE WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA OF -5 F IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS ON EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND EVEN LOWER TO -10 F BY
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DIVING INTO THE TEENS AND
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND A DECENT NORTHWEST BREEZE...THE WIND
CHILL THREAT IS WORTHY ENOUGH TO NOTE IN THE HWO.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD...BUT THE MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE BEYOND
THIS POINT. THE 12Z GFS TRIES TO DEVELOP ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
FROM A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS ANY MOISTURE FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE CWA. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WERE INTRODUCED.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EST SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. A DEEP
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING WELL TO OUR
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...THEN TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF THE
SC/NC COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...BUT ANY CIGS BELOW
MUCH BELOW 10KFT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE RNK TAF
SITES. TO THE WEST...A DEEPENING LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MOVING SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...THIS
SYSTEM WILL NOT APPROACH OR IMPACT THE RNK CWA UNTIL JUST BEYOND
THE TAF VALID PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT ANY TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD. THE AIR MASS IS EXTREMELY DRY...SO VISIBILITIES WILL
REMAIN VFR.
WINDS WILL REMAIN CHAOTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE REGION FALLS
BETWEEN THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW AND THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. A GENERAL TENDENCY TOWARD NNW-NNE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SEEING INFLUENCE FROM THE DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOW...WHILE LIGHT/VARIABLE TO LIGHT SW WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WINDS
WILL TRANSITION MORE TOWARD THE NNW-NW TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
VALID PERIOD. WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SPEEDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
7KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. TO THE EAST...POTENTIAL
FOR 8-12KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS KDAN-KLYH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE COASTAL LOW.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
FOR MONDAY INTO MID WEEK...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
A SECOND SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITH AN INFLUX OF VERY COLD AIR AND DEEP UPSLOPE
MOISTURE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING RESULTING IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS IN ADDITION TO LOW CIGS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR AT KBLF/KLWB AND POTENTIAL PERIODS
OF MVFR AT KBCB/KROA. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FLURRIES MAY OCCUR AS FAR EAST AS THE
PIEDMONT WHERE INTERVALS OF VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO OCCUR.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN TO MAINLY VFR LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE POSSIBLY RETURNING TO SUB-VFR AGAIN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK PASSING UPPER
IMPULSE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/JM/MBS
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JH/PM/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
345 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...
334 AM CST
THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE FORECAST THEME OF LIGHT SNOW WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE SNOW
SHOWERS REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATION. ATTENTION ALSO IS ON PORTER COUNTY INDIANA WHERE
TEMPORARY BUT MORE APPRECIABLE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AT TIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME NO HEADLINES ARE
PLANNED TO BE ISSUED AS ONLY MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME AND SOME UNCERTAINTY ON DURATION. AN AREA WIDE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT WAS AGAIN ISSUED AND ONE MORE FOCUSED FOR PORTER
COUNTY. ALSO ON TRACK IS THE COLD WHICH LOOKS TO PROVIDE AREA WIDE
SUBZERO WIND CHILLS TO START WEDNESDAY MORNING AND PROBABLY
THURSDAY TOO.
THE IMPRESSIVELY AMPLIFIED TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA IS
EVER SO SLOWLY INCHING EASTWARD. WITH A VIGOROUS 150KT UPPER JET
ON ITS WESTERN EDGE...THERE REMAINS NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE DISTURBANCES AND THEIR LIFT
WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
HELP THE SNOW TO CONTINUE TODAY. THE LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL BRING SHARPLY REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND SWATHS OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. A
GENERAL WEST-TO-EAST FADE IN THIS SYNOPTIC ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND LITTLE IF AT ALL TODAY WITH MID TEENS TO MID 20S EXPECTED
FROM WEST TO EAST WITH WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH ADDING AN EXTRA CHILL
TO THE AIR.
AS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE LOW LEVELS...CHARACTERIZED BY 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING
TO -15C OR COLDER BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WILL HELP STRENGTHEN LAKE-
INDUCED INSTABILITY. MODIFIED RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS FOR MID 30S
SURFACE TEMPERATURES PROVIDE CAPE OF 50 J/KG MUCH OF TODAY. BOTH
OF THESE MODELS INDICATE TRANSIENT BUT STRONG LOW-LEVEL OMEGA INTO
PORTER COUNTY TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
TO BE SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED DUE TO A LACK OF A CONFLUENT
FOCUS...BUT STILL ENOUGH OF A DURATION TO PROVIDE 12-24 HOUR
SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 2-3 POSSIBLY 4 INCHES TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
THE HIGHER END IN NORTHEAST PORTER. THE BETTER SIGNAL FOR THE
CONFLUENT FLOW REMAINS JUST EAST OF OUR AREA WHERE ADVISORIES WILL
GO INTO EFFECT FROM ADJACENT NWS NORTHERN INDIANA DURING THE MID-
AFTERNOON.
THE STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW STILL IN PLACE TONIGHT SHOULD WARRANT
CLOUDS THOUGH SOME BREAKS COULD HAPPEN IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THE 4KM SPC WRF COLUMN CONDENSATE FIELD WHICH
OFTEN DOES WELL WITH CAA STRATOCU KEEPS CLOUDS AROUND A GOOD PART
OF THE NIGHT AS WELL...LENDING TO A LITTLE HIGHER CONFIDENCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL WITHIN THIS REGIME AND SINGLE DIGITS
ARE EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THE
CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD COVER DROPS QUITE A BIT WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH DO ANTICIPATE A GENERAL DIMINISHING TREND
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE A CHILLY ONE...WITH
SOME OUTLYING NEAR OR EVEN SUBZERO LOWS POSSIBLE.
SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY OUTSIDE OF SOME
CONTINUED LIGHTER LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN PORTER
COUNTY...ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE GRADUALLY
BACKING SO IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE MUCH.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
345 AM CST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
WINTER CONTINUES GOING FORWARD INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SHEARED SHORT WAVE DIVING OVER OR NEAR THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW.
MOST MODELS AND EVEN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE LIGHT QPF WITH
THIS. IT IS A FEW DAYS AWAY YET BUT IT HAS THE LOOK OF ONE OF
THOSE CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEMS THAT COULD PRODUCE A NARROW SWATH OF
POSSIBLY A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW GIVEN FAVORABLE THERMAL PROFILES
FOR SNOW GROWTH AND LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WINDS.
THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET AGAIN BUCKLES BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WITH AN ARCTIC HIGH OF 1040MB + EXPECTED
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SYNOPTIC
REGIME CONTINUES TO RESEMBLE ONE THAT COULD SUPPORT MESOSCALE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW...POSSIBLY EVEN HEAVY...WITH CONVERGENCE POINTED
TOWARD SOME OF THE CWA. AT THIS TIME THAT LOOKS TO BE MORE
NORTHWEST INDIANA. AGAIN FAR TOO EARLY FOR SOMETHING OF THAT SCALE
TO HAVE BIG CONFIDENCE IN...BUT DID INCREASE SNOW CHANCES IN FAR
NORTHWEST INDIANA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE AVIATION
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN AND FOCUS
CONTINUES TO BE TIMING THE BEST WINDOW OF LOWER VSBY AND POTENTIAL
ACCUMULATIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. GYY AND MDW LOOKS TO
BE IN FAVORED CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS/09-10Z...FOR
TEMPORARY IFR AND EVEN LIFR VSBY AT TIMES. FOR ORD/DPA...GENERALLY
MVFR VSBY IN SNOW SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE
OUT IFR VSBY AT TIMES. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON A
SUBTLE WAVE THAT COULD RE-ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES TOWARD DAYBREAK.
AGAIN...GYY SHOULD BE MOST FAVORED...EVEN WITH SOME ADDED LAKE
ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL. RFD AREA COULD FINALLY GET INTO SOME SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER 07Z...AND POTENTIALLY IFR VSBY AT TIMES.
THE REST OF THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK LIFT COULD YIELD ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS AT ANY TIME. CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN THE PROB30 GROUP
DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR IFR VSBY FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF FOR
ORD/MDW/GYY/DPA GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO LOWER
IN CIGS...AS THERE ARE POCKETS OF VFR OVER THE AREA. GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING A SIGNAL FOR INCREASED LOW-MID MVFR CIG POTENTIAL DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE WEST-
NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE THIS MORNING THROUGH
TONIGHT.
RC
&&
.MARINE...
258 AM CST
ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE FROM
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS JUST
HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE THE WARNING...BUT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ANY
GALES WILL BE ON THE LOW END OF THE SPECTRUM. NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH GOES THROUGH THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE IL NEARSHORE WATERS...AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS DUE TO HAZARDOUS WINDS AND
WAVES.
A WEAK LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO REACHES NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...AND
THEN MERGES WITH A DEEPER LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD SOUTH
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO LOW END GALES THIS MORNING AND PERSIST
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
LAKE. OCCASIONAL GALES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
LAKE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS TO HOIST A GALE WARNING
FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE LAKE.
THE HIGH PASSES SOUTH OF THE LAKE THURSDAY EVENING AND WINDS WILL
BECOME WEST 15-25 KT. A WEAK LOW FORMS OVER ONTARIO THURSDAY
EVENING AND REACHES NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME A
LARGE HIGH SPREADS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS INCREASING TO AT LEAST 30 KT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE LAKE
SATURDAY EVENING AND CONTINUES EAST TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOME SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH SUNDAY.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 AM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1241 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. VERY COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT THE
END OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
NORTHEAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1210 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTMENTS MADE THIS UPDATE INCLUDE MINOR CHGS TO
6 HRLY SNFL AND STM TOTAL SNFL AND TO PROVIDE BETTER ENDING TMG OF
WNTR WX ADVS FROM S TO N...RANGING FROM 11 AM ALG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...TO 3 PM FOR CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA AND THE ORGNL 7 PM ENDING
FOR NRN ZONES...MORE IN LN WHEN POPS DROP TO CHC WHEN STEADY SN
TAPERS TO SCT SN SHWRS.
OTHERWISE...ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS...CLD CVR AND HRLY/LOW
TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVRNGT. WITH REGARD TO LOW
TEMPS...WE RAISED THEM A FEW DEG...THINKING THAT TEMPS WILL ONLY
FALL A FEW DEG DUE TO DYNAMIC COOLING FROM SNFL.
PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW CHANCES THIS TERM. THE MAIN THING IN
QUESTION IS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. TOUGH FORECAST COMING UP.
LATEST 20Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD INTENSE SFC LOW SE OF NOVA SCOTIA
BOMBING OUT AND FILLING. REGIONAL RADAR, INCLUDING THE LATEST MRMS
SHOWED WESTERN EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD MOVING ONTO THE COAST AND
INTO PORTIONS OF INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE. THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE INCLUDING
THE RAP AND HRRR 3KM WERE DOING WELL W/THE PLACEMENT PER THE LATEST
RADAR ALONG W/THE 12Z REGIONAL CANADIAN GEM. 12Z UA ANALYSIS SHOWED
80-100 KT JET DIVING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW OVER GREAT LAKES WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER TROF TO SHARPEN AS IT SWINGS E. THE
TIMING FOR SNOW FURTHER N HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK AS WELL AS CUTTING
BACK ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BY AN INCH OR TWO. THE GUSTY NNE WINDS
WILL DROP OFF LATER THIS EVENING AS THE INTENSE LOW PULLS AWAY.
LLVL CONVERGENCE IN CONJUNCTION W/A DEVELOPING UPPER FRONT WILL
LEAD TO AN AREA OF SNOW ACROSS THE DOWNEAST THIS EVENING W/SOME
BRIEF HEAVY BANDS. SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING
THE MT. KATAHDIN REGIONAL LATER THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT LIFTS
NORTH. THE SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REST OF NORTHERN MAINE BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. DESPITE LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP FORECAST
TO BE 0.25 TO 0.50 FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, HIGHER SNOW
RATIOS(16-19:1) WILL LEAD TO SOME HIGHER SNOW TOTALS W/THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLUFFY SNOW. SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT A BRIEF
PERIOD DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH WHICH WOULD ENHANCE SNOWFALL FOR A
TIME. OVERALL ATTM, LOOKING FOR HIGHEST TOTALS(4-8 INCHES) ACROSS
DOWNEAST AND EASTERN SECTIONS AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS SUCH AS
PORTIONS OF PISCATAQUIS COUNTY AND MT. KATAHDIN. FURTHER N ACROSS
HOULTON ON UP THROUGH CARIBOU INTO THE ST. JOHN VALLEY, SNOWFALL
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 3-6 INCH RANGE.
SNOW WILL END ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS BY LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON AND LINGER LONGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS IN
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THAT A NNE WIND ACROSS THE ST. JOHN
VALLEY HAS HISTORY OF LEADING TO SOME UPSLOPE AND FORECAST QPF OF
AROUND 0.25", DECIDED TO ADD THE ST. JOHN VALLEY AND NORTHERN
SOMERSET INTO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY W/SNOW FORECAST OF UP TO
4 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL W/20S EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NORTHEAST AS WE GO INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD. MOISTURE WITHIN
THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WEAK SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SMALL AREAS
OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL STAY MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH. ONE LOW WILL
SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER SMALL LOW
SLIDING TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY. THE SMALL LOW ON THURSDAY MAY
TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST POSSIBLY GIVING A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS. OTHERWISE, ONLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AT THE END OF THE
WEEK WILL BRING VERY COLD AIR TO THE REGION. A SMALL LOW WHISKING OUT
TO SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MAY PRODUCE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION, AND POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW ALONG THE COAST. OTHERWISE, MAINLY DRY AND VERY COLD WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A NORTHWEST BREEZE SATURDAY AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY MAY REQUIRE WIND CHILL HEADLINES OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES SOUTH TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON
MONDAY AS A WEAK LOW MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS
CURRENTLY DIFFER WITH THE GFS BRINGING THIS LOW IN MONDAY AND THE
ECMWF BRINGING IT IN LATE TUESDAY. FOR NOW WILL BRING LOW CHANCES
FOR SNOW LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH HUL/PQI/CAR BECOMING MVFR
AFTER 03Z WITH FVE HOLDING ONTO VFR RESTRICTIONS UNTIL 08Z. IFR
SNOW EXPECTED AT HUL AT 03Z, PQI AT 05Z, CAR AT 06Z AND FVE AT
09Z. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT CAR, PQI AND HUL BY 22Z TUE.
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF BGR AND BHB WILL SEE IFR IN SN AND BLSN
THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR.
SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH VARIABLE MID AND LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR ALONG THE COAST IN
A PERIOD OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH VFR TO
OCCASIONALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER, THERE IS A
SMALL POSSIBILITY LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MAY LOWER CONDITIONS TO
MVFR OR BRIEFLY IFR DOWNEAST ON SATURDAY IN LIGHT SNOW IF IT
TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HV ALLOWED GALE WARNING TO EXPIRE FOR INTRACOASTAL
WATERS AT 03Z AND EXTENDED FOR COASTAL WATERS THRU 05Z AS WINDS
RMN BTWN 35-40KTS. HV ISSUED SCA FOR INTRACOASTAL WATERS THRU 18Z
TUESDAY AND AS GALE WARNING EXPIRES FOR RMNG ZONES WL NEED TO
ISSUE SCA THRU THE DAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DROP BACK TO 8-10 FEET BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A SWELL GENERATION IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE ON TUESDAY W/PERIODS OF 10-13 SECONDS.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH SCA LATE THURSDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA ON FRIDAY. AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED
SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY AND FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES MAY NEED
TO BE ISSUED OVER THE WEEKEND AS VERY COLD AIR MOVES OVER THE
WATERS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN EXTRA-TROPICAL STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1-1.5 FT IS EXPECTED LATER
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. HIGH TIDE TONIGHT IS AROUND 11
PM AND AROUND 11 AM ON TUESDAY. TIDES ARE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED SURGE AND THE WAVES OF 10-13 FT COULD LEAD TO SOME
SPLASH-OVER AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE MORE SO ON TUESDAY.
COLLABORATED W/GYX AND DECIDED TO GO W/A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ002-
004>006-010.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ001-
003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MEZ011-015>017-031-032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ029-030.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1142 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE TOWARD
CAPE COD ON TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE REGION. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND EXIT BY FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
1140 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TREND AND TO
INGEST THE 04Z MESONET INTO NEAR TERM GRIDS. WINDS CONTINUE TO
DROP OFF ON THE WATERS AND THE GALE HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A SMALL
CRAFT WITH THIS UPDATE. HIGH TIDE WAS A SHORT TIME AGO WITH AN
ANOMALY OF 1.7 FT. THIS PUT THE TIDE ABOUT 0.5 FT BELOW FLOOD
STAGE. HOWEVER...WITH SEAS BETWEEN 12 AND 14 FT AT THE NEAR SHORE
BUOYS THERE SHOULD BE SOME SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO.
PREV DISC...
UPDATE...
A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW HAS FORMED OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BASICALLY FROM PORTLAND AND POINTS
NORTH AND EAST PER LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. EXPECT THIS BAND TO
CONTINUE IN THIS REGION UNTIL ABOUT 04Z OR 05Z BEFORE WEAKENING
WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE LAST HRRR MODEL. WILL MONITOR SOME OF
THESE AREAS FOR HIGH SNOWFALL TOTALS AND POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL
WARNINGS OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
THE SNOW HAS RETROGRADED ALL THE WAY TO THE VT BORDER WITH SNOW
NOW BEGIN REPORTED IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT PERHAPS CENTRAL SOMERSET
COUNTY.
PREV DISC... HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND LATEST SUITE OF MESOSCALE MODELS. SNOW HAS FINALLY SPREAD INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND CENTRAL MAINE THIS EVENING AS
BANDS OF MOISTURE CONTINUE TO ROTATE WESTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE INTENSE OFFSHORE LOW. INVERTED TROUGH ALSO ACTING AS A
FOCUS FOR THE PRECIP THIS EVENING.
DRY AIR IS DIMINISHING THE PRECIP FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH DEW
POINTS VERY LOW AT THIS HOUR AT THE SURFACE. HAVE ADJUSTED AREA
FOR THE REGION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO BE
FOCUSED OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
PREV DISC...
IMPRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OUT TO SEA CONTINUES TO LOFT
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND BY
TOMORROW. THESE SURFACE REFLECTIONS AS WELL AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVERHEAD WAS PROVIDING ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION.
EARLIER THIS MORNING THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAD A HARD TIME
MOVING NORTHWARD DUE TO EVAPORATION ON THE NORTHERN EDGE. A VERY
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE KEPT ANY SNOW FROM FALLING UNTIL ABOUT 3-4
HOURS AGO. SEVERAL SNOW BANDS HAVE NOW EMERGED ALONG PETTERSSON
FRONTOGENESIS MAXIMA. ONE BAND IN PARTICULAR IS CURRENTLY ROTATING
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE NH/ME COASTLINE.
TO THE NORTH...ZERO OR SUBZERO DEW POINTS PERSIST WITH NORTH
WINDS CONTINUALLY DRAWING DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD. THIS FACT WILL
KEEP SNOW EVAPORATING INTO VIRGA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS THE
NORTH BEFORE TOP DOWN SATURATION OCCURS.
WINDS ARE GUSTING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT BEFORE THEY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT.
THIS COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY FLUFFY SNOW WILL CREATE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. DUE TO THIS REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND TOMORROW MORNING ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED DOWN THE COAST TO
INCLUDE PORTLAND AND ALSO SOUTHWEST AND INLAND TO INCLUDE
ROCKINGHAM COUNTY AND E HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO THE
UPPER TEENS SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO HOVER IN THE 6-8 INCH RANGE IN WARNED
AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS UNDER A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. MOST OF THE SNOW OVER SOUTHERN NH AND SW
MAINE WILL FALL BEFORE 6 AM TUESDAY. AS THE BAND FILLS IN
DOWNEAST... MORE LOCATIONS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED. LOOKING AT THE
FLUFF FACTOR WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS
REQUIRING A WARNING BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE.
TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO UPPER 20S SOUTH.
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY MID MORNING ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
STRONGEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY EAST. RESIDUAL
TROUGHINESS WILL KEEP FLURRIES AROUND WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS LINGERING FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS. TOMORROW NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT. CLOUDS STICK AROUND WITH
NO FRONT TO SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROF SLOWLY PIVOTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WED AND
THU AND EXITS THE REGION ON FRI. WITH THE UPPER TROF THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY SO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIKELY FOR THE MOUNTAINS. ON FRI THE TROF EXITS BUT THEN IT WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT AS A COLD POLAR UPPER
VORTEX DROPS INTO NEW ENGLAND BRINGING BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON WITH GUSTY WINDS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND BITTER
COLD CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STAYED CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND MODELS FOR TEMPS BUT RAISED POPS
FOR WED/THU PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO GRADUALLY LOWERING
CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE TODAY. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND GUST TO 25 OR 30 KT NEAR THE COAST WITH LOWER SPEEDS
INLAND...BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR TUESDAY IN SNOW
SHOWERS.
LONG TERM...UPPER TROF PIVOTS OVER THE REGION THRU THU...WITH
AREAS OF SHSN LIKELY. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHSN...AND THEY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TERMINAL. STRONG COLD FNT
APPROACHES THE AREA FRI WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH TONIGHT. GALES
REMAIN IN PLACE AS OCEAN LOW PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
CONDITIONS DROP BELOW GALES AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH LINGERING SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THE BAYS FOR TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS APPEARS LIKELY THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR WED AND THU WITH SEAS
REMAINING ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS BUT SLOWLY SUBSIDING. A
STRONG COLD FNT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A 1 TO 1.5 FOOT STORM SURGE WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES AND SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL
YORK...ROCKINGHAM...AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENINGS HIGH
TIDE AROUND 11 PM. FOR TOMORROW MORNINGS HIGH TIDE AROUND 11
AM...A HIGHER TIDE REQUIRED A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING. BOTH OF THESE
TIDES MAY LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR SPLASH-OVER ALONG THE
COASTS OF YORK...ROCKINGHAM...AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES. SEE CFWGYX
FOR MORE INFORMATION. WAVE PERIODS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT AROUND 13
SECONDS TOMORROW MORNING...WITH HIGH ENERGY SWELLS STRIKING THE
COASTLINE.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
012>014-018>022-025>028.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-
024.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ003>011-
015.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ001-002.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ012>014.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
ES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
422 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SPATIAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPANDING IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. ONE
SPOKE OF THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SWINGING THROUGH WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT SNOW THAT RESIDES
NORTH OF I-70. ANOTHER AXIS OF THE LOW IS DIGGING IN ACROSS
WESTERN OHIO...DEEPENING A SECONDARY MID-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER. THE RESULTANT DEFORMATION ZONE HAS GIVEN RISE TO A MODERATE
SNOW BAND THAT STRETCHES WEST TO EAST FROM WILMINGTON OH TO NEAR
CLARKSBURG WV. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY PIVOT AROUND
THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...SPREADING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS SHOULD IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE
FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ADVISED AREAS...WITH LESS OF AN
IMPACT NEAR THE PITTSBURGH METRO.
HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FAIRLY SHARP GRADIENT ALONG
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW TODAY. LATEST HRRR RUN HAS COME MORE
IN LINE WITH THE WRF ARW/NMM...KEEPING THE HEAVIEST SNOW JUST
SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH BUT STILL IMPACTING SOUTHERN ALLEGHENY COUNTY.
HAVE ADJUSTED SNOW AMOUNTS ACCORDINGLY BY TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT
FROM NEAR PITTSBURGH TO NEAR ZANESVILLE. WHILE THIS MEANS A
FURTHER REDUCTION IN THE FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE ADVISORY COUNTIES...OPTED TO STAND PAT WITH THE
CURRENT HEADLINES.
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH AND INTO THE RIDGES SHOULD SEE
SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE LIFT WEAKENS AND DEPARTS. STILL
EXPECTING 4 TO 6 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION FROM NEAR THE MASON-DIXON
LINE AND SOUTH. SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS TONIGHT...BUT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE RIDGE COUNTIES AS
THE FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
DESCENDS UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THEIR DOWNWARD TREND AS HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
TODAY...AND LOWS WILL DROP TO NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT. TAX
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
H500 TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST EARLY ON WEDNESDAY AS CLOSED LOW OPENS
UP. NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE DURING THE DAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
COLD ADVECTION. INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP A BIT AS COMPARED TO TODAY
AND OVERALL MOISTURE LEVEL IS LOWER...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE IS
PRESENT IN DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE TO PROMOTE ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR TWO...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES.
COLD ADVECTION SLOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOISTURE BECOMES MORE
SHALLOW WITH TIME...WHICH WILL SLOW ACCUMULATION A BIT. ANOTHER
INCH OR SO IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...LESS TO THE
WEST. H850 THERMAL TROUGH ARRIVES AND CROSSES ON THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL HELP TO DIMINISH COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. ONLY A FEW SHSN
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ALONG THE RIDGES AND NORTH OF I-80 BY
EVENING...WITH A DRY WINDOW EXPECTED AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP FURTHER BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE HERE.
CL
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...LASTING INTO SATURDAY. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR
NOW. THE MAIN STORY HERE WILL BE THE POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO FALL TO -25C
OR EVEN A BIT COLDER BY 00Z SUNDAY. BELOW ZERO MIN TEMPS ARE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY IF SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
DECOUPLE.
A DRY AND COLD SUNDAY IS EXPECTED AS THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY AS THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH LOOSENS ITS GRIP...BUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RETURN AS WELL WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WAS USED AS A BASIS FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
CL
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THIS MORNING AS SPATIAL
COVERAGE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EXPANDS. EXPECTING AT LEAST
MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE DAY AS SNOW LIFTS NORTHWARD
UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER. GREATEST IMPACTS SHOULD BE
TO THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF LBE/MGW/AGC WITH SNOW LASTING INTO
THE EVENING. GUIDANCE HINTING AT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST.
STILL...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SO
RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL TO BE EXPECTED. LIGHT SURFACE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT.
TAX
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER COLD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049-
050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021-
029-031-073-075.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
WVZ510>514.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
335 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WV IMAGERY THIS
MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW BROAD TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY WITH LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WEST. IR IMAGERY SHOWING
INTERMEDIATE CLOUD DECK PERSISTING OVER NE SECTIONS. EXPECT THE CLOUD
DECK TO SPREAD BACK OUT TO THE SW SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNRISE...BUT NOT AS
EXPANSIVE AS YESTERDAY.
SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH WILL SUPPORT A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. GFS BUFR DATA SHOWING WINDS IN THE
MIXED LAYER AVERAGING AROUND 25 KNOTS. THE HRRR IS PICKING UP ON
THIS SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS AND SLIGHTLY LESS TO THE SOUTH.
DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE TEENS OVER THE SW QUARTER ALONG WITH 20 TO
30 MPH WINDS WILL PROMOTE A LIMITED FIRE DANGER RISK AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE THIS ALONG WITH THE WIND RISK IN THE HWO THIS
MORNING.
MID LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER COOL
DAY TODAY AND COLD NIGHT TONIGHT...BUT TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
HEADING INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. MID LEVEL TROF/SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EAST WEDNESDAY LEADING TO WARMER LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS./26/
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...THE LONG TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST FORTUNATELY CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER SUBDUED
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A COUPLE OF REINFORCING DRY COLD
FRONTS WILL DROP SOUTH INTO AND THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE COURSE OF
THE DAY THURSDAY...AND AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. AGAIN NO
RAIN IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WITH THESE FRONTAL PASSAGES.
HOWEVER...AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTS...
AND INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ARE
EXPECTED.
YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD. INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...WILL AID IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES CURRENTLY
LOOKING TO FALL ON MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES COME TO AN END BEHIND THE
FRONT BY MONDAY EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. /19/
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL ONCE AGAIN TODAY BECOME SOMEWHAT STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON WITH
GUSTS NEAR 35 KNOTS. THESE SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH BY 10/00Z./26/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 48 26 51 36 / 1 3 0 0
MERIDIAN 46 22 50 29 / 2 3 0 5
VICKSBURG 50 28 53 41 / 1 3 0 0
HATTIESBURG 51 27 53 33 / 3 3 0 4
NATCHEZ 52 29 54 42 / 1 3 0 0
GREENVILLE 47 27 49 36 / 2 3 0 0
GREENWOOD 45 23 47 33 / 4 3 0 1
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.
LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ074-075.
&&
$$
26/19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
321 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
H5 SIMILAR PATTERN TO YESTERDAY WITH WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. NORTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH 100KTS-130KTS AT 250MB.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
MODELS IN THE NEAR TERM VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND
JET DYNAMICS ALOFT PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME
FLURRIES EARLY THIS MORNING OVER NORTH CENTRAL ZONES. THE BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH WEST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. HAVE KEPT FLURRIES OVER
MAINLY CHERRY COUNTY THROUGH THE MORNING. A MIX THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH SOME ENHANCED OMEGA THROUGH KVTN 18Z. AS THE BOUNDARY
PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE DAY AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE EAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 30S OVER NORTH CENTRAL
ONEILL VICINITY AND TO THE WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 IN THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES OVER NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOWS IN THE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 20S WITH
TEENS ONEILL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
MID RANGE...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
TEMPERATURES. VERY STRONG 850HPA WAA IS PROMINENT IN THE
MODELS...MOST EVIDENT ALONG/EAST OF U.S. HWY 83...WITH TEMP AT LBF
RISING FROM 2C AT 00Z WED TO 9C AT 18Z AND FROM 0C TO 8C AT BBW. THE
00Z MOS GUIDANCE SUITE CAME IN WARMER...ECM SHOWS SFC TEMPS IN THE
50S AND 60S FOR THE AREA...MAV GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 50S...AND MET
UPPER 40S. GIVEN GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS IN THE WARMING
TREND...DID BUMP MAX TEMPS UP BUT STILL LIMITED TO NEAR THE MAV.
ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE AT 280K AND 290K ALONG WITH WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW
IN THE LOWER LEVELS ARE FAVORABLE FOR WARMER CONDITIONS THAN
FORECAST...BUT CONCERNS REMAIN IN GOING AS HIGH AS THE ECM. NAM AND
GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP AN INVERSION INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH
GREATLY LIMITS MIXING...ALTHOUGH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FROM THE
SFC TO 500HPA EARLY IN THE DAY MAY HELP WEAKEN IT. ALSO...A SNOW
PACK REMAINS FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WIND DROPS OFF WHILE DEW POINTS REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH. SREF
HINTS AT STRATUS OR FOG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK MID LEVEL
WAVE PASSES THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY. FRONTOGENESIS AND SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BUT ISENTROPIC
DOWNGLIDE AND THE LACK OF LIFT BELOW 850HPA WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES
TO A MINIMUM. CLOUDS AND WEAK CAA WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER MAX
TEMPS.
LONG RANGE...FRIDAY TO MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS GIVES WAY TO A FAST MOVING LOW/TROUGH ON SUNDAY BEFORE
RESUMING ON MONDAY. THE GFS AND EURO SOLUTIONS APPEAR MORE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES
REMAIN IN UPPER JET PLACEMENT AND 850HPA TEMPS. WITH OVERALL FORCING
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKING BETTER FOR THE AREA...NOW A SCHC OF
PRECIP FOR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. MEX AND ECE GUIDANCE ARE ALSO
SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT FOR MAX TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE
850HPA TROUGH/CAA ARRIVING SATURDAY. RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN ON MONDAY
WITH FAIR CONDITIONS AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS...ALLOWING A QUICK
REBOUND IN TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW NO
REAL CONSENSUS WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BUT THE FORECAST USES THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD GFS SOLN. THE NAM AND SREF WILL VERY BULLISH
WHILE THE RAP AND ECM EASY ON THE STRATUS. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH NCNTL NEB.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1152 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 608 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
HAVE ALLOWED WIND AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE ON
SCHEDULE AT 6 PM. SNOW HAS ENDED IN SOUTHWEST IOWA COUNTIES...AND
WITH WINDS SUBSIDING THIS EVENING...BLOWING SNOW WILL NOT BE AN
ISSUE THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOW REGION IN
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST WHILE AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST.
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT PRODUCED VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN ADDITION
TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 00Z WHEN ALL WINDS SHOULD BE
BELOW CRITERIA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NATION`S
MID SECTION THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WILL FOCUS MAINLY ON TEMPERATURES AS ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN CHANCES
ARE MINIMAL.
WE CONTINUE A VERY SMALL POP IN OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY AS A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH A VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH UPPER TEENS IN
OUR NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S IN OUR SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE FLOW ON FRIDAY WITH
MUCH OF THE STRONG FORCING REMAINING TO OUR NORTHEAST.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGING TO THE WEST DEAMPLIFIES LEAVING OUR REGION IN
MORE OF A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS STRONG 1047 MB HIGH.
THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BRINGING A CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO
THE NATION`S MID SECTION ON SUNDAY BUT WILL WAIT FOR SOME BETTER
MODEL CONTINUITY BEFORE ADDING A BUNCH OF POPS FOR THE TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
THE WINDS ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING. REALIZING THERE WILL BE THIS VARIABILITY...FOR A
GENERAL FORECAST WENT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15KTS AND MENTIONED
SOME GUSTS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. THE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD DIE
DOWN TO LESS THAN 12KTS LATER TUESDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THE PATCH OF MVFR CONDITIONS IS EVEN MORE
PATCHY. LOW CLOUDS STILL SKIRT KOMA. WITH SOME WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION DID MENTION A COUPLE OF HOURS AT KOMA WITH PATCHY MVFR.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DERGAN
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1124 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED IN THE WEST WHILE LARGE UPPER
LOW SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.
100M+ HEIGHT RISES OCCURRING ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AT H5 IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES AND THESE HEIGHT RISES ARE PROGGED TO
CONTINUE MOVING SEWD AS WELL. IR SAT PICS INDICATING MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS IN THE TRANSITION ZONE AS WELL AS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS IN CONCERT. FURTHER
WEST...STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OVER WRN BC AND WEAK UPPER LOW
UNDERCUTTING WRN STATES RIDGE AS A PV ANOMALY MOVES THROUGH NRN
MEXICO INTO WRN TX.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DROP OFF WITH SUNSET AND SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS WEAKENING ALREADY IN THE PANHANDLE. WEAK MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE NWRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MID LEVEL LIFT COMES AHEAD OF NEXT PV
ANOMALY ROUNDING THE WRN STATES UPPER RIDGE. THIS FEATURE AND THE
TEMPORARY FLATTENING OF THE WRN RIDGE WILL INCREASE THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND TMRW AND WILL BE ABLE TO
WORK WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE STREAMING OVER THE RIDGE TO DEVELOP
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TMRW ACROSS THE N. SOME NEG EPV LOCATED IN THE
ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MODELS HINTING AT SHOWER-TYPE PRECIP IN
THE FORM OF SNOW ONCE SATURATION TAKES PLACES FROM TOP DOWN. WHILE
TEMPS DO EXCEED THE FREEZING MARK BY AFTERNOON AT THE SFC...SOUNDING
PROFILES IN THE NRN FCST AREA SUGGESTS GOOD ISOTHERMAL LAYER IN THE
ACCRETION ZONE AND WET BULB STILL BELOW ZERO C.
TEMPS WILL BE SIGHTLY WARMER TMRW BUT TEMPERED BY THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT MENTIONED. WINDS HOWEVER WILL BE LIGHTER MAKING IT FEEL WARMER
OVERALL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
LOOKING AT A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST CROSS-SECTION ACROSS NEBRASKA
TUESDAY NIGHT...A LAYER OF WEAK FRONTOGENETIC FORCING CAN BE SEEN IN
THE 275-295K LAYER WHICH IS VERY STABLE. THE TEMPERATURE AT THE TOP
OF THAT LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE -10C TO -14C WHICH COULD PRODUCE A
MIX OF CRYSTAL TYPES FALLING THROUGH AN ISOTHERMAL SATURATED LAYER
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THOUGH THE FORCING IS WEAK...IT COULD STILL
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.
ON SUNDAY...A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME SYSTEM-RELATIVE LIFT
INTO A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE LAYER OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. HOWEVER SOURCE LAYER IS RELATIVELY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE 0C. PRECIPITATION FALLING THROUGH THE LAYER COULD BE EXPECTED
TO COOL THE LAYER TO BELOW 0C...BUT THE LOWEST LAYER WOULD STILL BE
ABOVE FREEZING AND RAIN IS THE LIKELY FORM OF PRECIPITATION THAT
DOES FALL...AT LEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY
OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. WITH THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED...WE
WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY LOW AT LESS THAN 25 PERCENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW NO
REAL CONSENSUS WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BUT THE FORECAST USES THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD GFS SOLN. THE NAM AND SREF WILL VERY BULLISH
WHILE THE RAP AND ECM EASY ON THE STRATUS. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH NCNTL NEB.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STOPPKOTTE
SHORT TERM...STOPPKOTTE
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1132 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE 3HR PRESSURE FALLS
ARE MAXIMIZED. VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN THIS AREA HAS RESULTED IN
CEILINGS UNIFORMLY AROUND 5000FT. NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM
SEEN TO FURTHER ENHANCE VERTICAL MOTION AND GENERATE PRECIPITATION
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE BOWMAN AND BISMARCK RADAR SHOW A DISTINCT
LINE OF WEAKENING ECHOES IN FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND WILL
MAINTAIN THIS THOUGHT.
LOOKING AHEAD...QUICK SCAN IN THE BUFKIT ANALYSIS AND 00Z NAM/GFS
MODEL SOLUTIONS...SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN GENERATING LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE WEST MID MORNING TUESDAY...THEN SPREADING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BY AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY. MOST PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
IN THE COLD SECTOR WITH A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN
THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL AWAIT POPS IN THE NEXT CYCLE
TO EVALUATE THIS THREAT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 920 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A BIT IN THE NORTHEAST BASED ON THE LATEST
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. ALSO DECIDED TO HOLD
OFF ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL 12Z TUESDAY DUE TO LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS. IN THE WEST A FLURRY OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...BUT
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE...DO NOT THINK THE CURRENT 0.5 DEGREE RADAR RETURNS FROM
KMBX ARE MAKING THEIR WAY TO THE GROUND. WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY
AND ADJUSTING ACCORDINGLY SHOULD THIS BECOME LESS CERTAIN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 542 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. LATE AFTERNOON 0.5 DEGREE
RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOWS A NARROW LINE OF ECHOES MOVING EAST
AND EXTENDING FROM TIOGA SOUTH TO DICKINSON AND HETTINGER AT 2330
UTC. HOWEVER...WE BELIEVE THE ECHOES REPRESENT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
AND NOT SURFACE PRECIPITATION GIVEN SUB-20 DBZ RETURNS BASED ABOVE
5000 FT AGL. IN FACT...POPS WERE REDUCED SLIGHTLY IN NORTHWEST ND
TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH 03 UTC GIVEN THE DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE TEENS F OVER MUCH OF WESTERN ND
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. RECENT OPERATIONAL HRRR SIMULATIONS ARE MORE
ROBUST WITH LIGHT SNOW IN WESTERN ND LATE TONIGHT THAN THE ESRL-
RUN EXPERIMENTAL HRRR...WHICH ALSO REPRESENTS UNCERTAINTY THAT IS
LIKELY RELATED TO THE DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND WEAK FORCING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
RIDGE RUNNING THROUGH THE WESTERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH LOW NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
WHILE FAST NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER OUR AREA.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER WILL
START THE EVENING WITH BREEZY WINDS DIMINISHING AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY RELAX OVER THE REGION. LATER THIS
EVENING WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT DEVELOPS RESULTING IN MODEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN LOCATIONS...BRINGING A
LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW.
ON TUESDAY...STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL BE SET UP OVER THE
AREA WITH TEENS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND
AROUND 40 OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST. MODEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN IN BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE SET UP OVER WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA. MOST AREAS MAY SEE SOME SNOW...BUT CHANCES
SWITCH TOWARDS RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST AS WARMER AIR TRIES
TO WORK EASTERLY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
A VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CARRY SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS
THESE WAVES APPROACH BRIEF PERIODS OF MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE FIRST SUCH WAVE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CLEARLY
SHOW A WARM LAYER ALOFT...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS AS TO JUST
HOW WARM THIS LAYER IS AND HOW FAR EAST IT WILL PUSH.
HOWEVER...THERE IS AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS BELOW FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE BEST FORCING AND WARM LAYER
ALOFT. AS PRECIPITATION PUSHES FURTHER EAST IT WILL ENCOUNTER
COOLER AIR BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE AND SHOULD TRANSITION OR
REMAIN ALL SNOW. EXACTLY WHERE THIS TRANSITION ZONE WILL SET UP
IS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
LIKELY BE VERY STEEP AND A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
COULD MEAN VERY DIFFERENT PRECIPITATION TYPES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
CIGS AROUND 5KFT TO BEGIN THIS TAF PERIOD...THEN TRENDING TO MVFR
IN THE WESTERN/NORTHERN TERMINALS OF KISN/KDIK/KMOT 15Z-17Z
TUESDAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AT KISN/KDIK DURING THE SAME TIME
PERIOD ABOVE RESULTING IN MVFR-IFR VSBYS. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR
AT KBIS BY 19Z WITH LIGHT SNOW FORECAST INTO KMOT/KBIS AROUND 00Z
WEDNESDAY. VSBYS WILL ALSO LOWER TO IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW. KJMS
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
145 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG-DURATION PERIOD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATION FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW
FROM MID WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF
THE WINTER IS POISED TO BRING FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
1230 AM UPDATE...
JUST A COATING SO FAR...BUT IT IS JUST THE BEGINNING. BOTH MDT
AND IPT CAME IN WITH 0.2IN OF SF AT MIDNIGHT. WEBCAMS PLAY UP A
BIT MORE SNOW OVER THE LAURELS...BUT MOST PLACES DRY OR JUST WET
ROADS AT THIS POINT. IT JUST SKIPPED RIGHT OVER HAPPY VALLEY. HRRR
AND RUC INDICATE THAT A WEAK TROUGH FORMS TO THE E OF UNV AND AOO
AND FOCUS THE LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE MID-LOWER SUSQ THROUGH THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. SLUG OF PRECIP MOVING UP FROM CENTRAL MD...SHOULD
RISE INTO THE SRN TIER/FAR LOWER SUSQ IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS.
STILL...SF RATES WILL LIKELY NOT GET TO INCH/HR RATES OVERNIGHT.
PREV...
03Z RADAR LOOP SHOWS SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD NEARLY ALL
OF CENTRAL PA AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
LACK OF SIG MOISTURE OVER THE REGION /SATL DERIVED PWATS ONLY NR
SEASONAL AVG/ AND EXPECTATION THAT WEAKENING SHORTWAVE WILL PASS
NE OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z...BOTH POINT TOWARD ONLY LIGHT PRECIP
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...MARGINAL BLYR TEMPS MAY RESULT IN AN
INITIAL PERIOD OF LGT RAIN OVR THE LOWER ELEVS OF SOUTHERN PA AND
COULD LIMIT SNOW ACCUMS THEREAFTER. WEB CAMS ACROSS THE SUSQ
VALLEY INDICATING ONLY WET ROADS AT 03Z.
FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW ACCUM
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA BY DAWN. HOWEVER...GIVEN LIGHT SNOW
RATES AND TEMPS AOA FREEZING...DON/T ANTICIPATE BIG TRAVEL
PROBLEMS FOR THE AM COMMUTE. BLEND OF LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS
TOWARD OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS IN THE U20S- L30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER DISCUSSION WITH PHI AND LWX...ALONG WITH NEW WPC
GRAPHICS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN PA
AND A WARNING FOR THE ADAMS/YORK/LANCASTER...WHERE WPC GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS TOTALS TO ARND 6 INCHES BY TUES NIGHT.
AFTER A LULL IN THE LGT SNOW EARLY TUE AM...SECOND SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF UPPER LOW OVR THE GRT LKS WILL APPROACH BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY...PRODUCING A STEADIER LIGHT SNOW ALONG NEG TILTED
INVERTED SFC TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOC PLUME OF HIGHER PWATS OVR
CENTRAL PA. BEST LG SCALE FORCING...AS INFERRED BY MDL 500-300MB
QVEC CONV FIELDS...WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN PA...WHERE MDL
BLENDED QPF SUPPORTS SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUM BTWN
MIDDAY TUES AND LATE TUES EVENING. MARGINAL BLYR TEMPS MAY
CONTINUE TO HINDER SNOW ACCUMS IN THE VALLEYS...AS NCAR MESO
ENSEMBLE AND SPC SSEO BOTH SUGGEST. SO...CONFIDENCE IN WARNING
TYPE SNOW IN THE POPULATION CENTERS OF SE PA IS NOT NEARLY AS HIGH
AS FOR THE RIDGETOP LOCATIONS. OTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS THAT
LIGHT SNOW FALLING WITH SFC TEMPS AOA FREEZING DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A GOOD DEAL OF MELTING ON ROAD SURFACES
AND COULD POTENTIALLY MAKE THIS A RELATIVELY LOW IMPACT
ADVISORY/WARNING.
EXPECT A TRANSITION TOWARD A LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW PATTERN
LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS INVERTED SFC TROUGH
LIFTS NE AND BLYR FLOW TURNS TO THE WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT AND
UPSLOPE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY-SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY FRIGID
TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES
WEEKEND.
ANOMALOUS WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY
KEEP THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION INTACT INTO NEXT WEEK BUT AT A
DECREASING AMPLITUDE.
AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A POLAR
VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS HUDSON BAY INTO SE CANADA. COLD AIR
WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE WEEK...REINFORCED
INITIALLY BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE IN A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION/COLD OUTBREAK
FOR VALENTINE`S WEEKEND.
LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOWS FOR SEVERAL DAYS THU-SAT WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL LGT-MDT ACCUMULATION OVER THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS. A NEW ELEMENT IN THE FCST IS DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY.
AT THIS TIME THE 08/00Z ECMWF LIES ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FCST COLD PATTERN/WELL-BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
WINTER APPEARS POISED TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND WITH GFS/EC BOTH
BRINGING -30C AIR AT 850MB INTO PA.
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE PROBABLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES +/- ZERO ARE FCST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
A STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND 1040+MB ARCTIC HIGH DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS -10F TO -25F
DEGREES BELOW ZERO.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW STILL REAL PATCHY.
06Z TAFS SENT.
WILL ADJUST AS NEEDED.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
FIRST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS NOW WORKING INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
WHILE OVERALL FORECAST CALLS FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST...THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE STEADY
SNOW IS THE CHALLENGING ASPECT OF THIS FORECAST. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO VARY FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION...LIKELY SWITCHING FROM VFR TO MVFR AND THEN BACK
AGAIN TO IFR. THIS THINKING IS DIFFICULT TO TRANSLATE INTO THE
TAFS. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH PREVAILING AREAS OF STEADY
SNOW...WITH LOWERING CONDITIONS...BUT REALIZING THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGH VARIABILITY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE EVENING.
IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD IN WIDESPREAD SNOW. SOME AREAS OF LIFR MAY DEVELOP
IN BANDING OF HEAVIER SNOW...BUT DIFFICULT TO PUT IN AN EXACT
LOCATION AT THIS TIME.
THE COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD... BUT
MAINLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE BREAKS FROM TIME TO
TIME...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THAT PERIOD.
LOOKING AHEAD...SNOW SHOWERS BECOME MORE CONFINED TO WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN MID/LATE WEEK AS SHOT OF QUITE COLD AIR ARRIVES ON
NW FLOW.
OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING. LOCALIZED LIFR POSSIBLE.
WED...MAINLY IFR IN SNOW WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS
CENTRAL/EAST.
THU-SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ024-
033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ025>028-034>036-056-057-059-063.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ064>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG/GARTNER/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1233 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG-DURATION PERIOD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATION FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW
FROM MID WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF
THE WINTER IS POISED TO BRING FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
1230 AM UPDATE...
JUST A COATING SO FAR...BUT IT IS JUST THE BEGINNING. BOTH MDT
AND IPT CAME IN WITH 0.2IN OF SF AT MIDNIGHT. WEBCAMS PLAY UP A
BIT MORE SNOW OVER THE LAURELS...BUT MOST PLACES DRY OR JUST WET
ROADS AT THIS POINT. IT JUST SKIPPED RIGHT OVER HAPPY VALLEY. HRRR
AND RUC INDICATE THAT A WEAK TROUGH FORMS TO THE E OF UNV AND AOO
AND FOCUS THE LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE MID-LOWER SUSQ THROUGH THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. SLUG OF PRECIP MOVING UP FROM CENTRAL MD...SHOULD
RISE INTO THE SRN TIER/FAR LOWER SUSQ IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS.
STILL...SF RATES WILL LIKELY NOT GET TO INCH/HR RATES OVERNIGHT.
PREV...
03Z RADAR LOOP SHOWS SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD NEARLY ALL
OF CENTRAL PA AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
LACK OF SIG MOISTURE OVER THE REGION /SATL DERIVED PWATS ONLY NR
SEASONAL AVG/ AND EXPECTATION THAT WEAKENING SHORTWAVE WILL PASS
NE OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z...BOTH POINT TOWARD ONLY LIGHT PRECIP
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...MARGINAL BLYR TEMPS MAY RESULT IN AN
INITIAL PERIOD OF LGT RAIN OVR THE LOWER ELEVS OF SOUTHERN PA AND
COULD LIMIT SNOW ACCUMS THEREAFTER. WEB CAMS ACROSS THE SUSQ
VALLEY INDICATING ONLY WET ROADS AT 03Z.
FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW ACCUM
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA BY DAWN. HOWEVER...GIVEN LIGHT SNOW
RATES AND TEMPS AOA FREEZING...DON/T ANTICIPATE BIG TRAVEL
PROBLEMS FOR THE AM COMMUTE. BLEND OF LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS
TOWARD OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS IN THE U20S- L30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER DISCUSSION WITH PHI AND LWX...ALONG WITH NEW WPC
GRAPHICS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN PA
AND A WARNING FOR THE ADAMS/YORK/LANCASTER...WHERE WPC GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS TOTALS TO ARND 6 INCHES BY TUES NIGHT.
AFTER A LULL IN THE LGT SNOW EARLY TUE AM...SECOND SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF UPPER LOW OVR THE GRT LKS WILL APPROACH BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY...PRODUCING A STEADIER LIGHT SNOW ALONG NEG TILTED
INVERTED SFC TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOC PLUME OF HIGHER PWATS OVR
CENTRAL PA. BEST LG SCALE FORCING...AS INFERRED BY MDL 500-300MB
QVEC CONV FIELDS...WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN PA...WHERE MDL
BLENDED QPF SUPPORTS SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUM BTWN
MIDDAY TUES AND LATE TUES EVENING. MARGINAL BLYR TEMPS MAY
CONTINUE TO HINDER SNOW ACCUMS IN THE VALLEYS...AS NCAR MESO
ENSEMBLE AND SPC SSEO BOTH SUGGEST. SO...CONFIDENCE IN WARNING
TYPE SNOW IN THE POPULATION CENTERS OF SE PA IS NOT NEARLY AS HIGH
AS FOR THE RIDGETOP LOCATIONS. OTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS THAT
LIGHT SNOW FALLING WITH SFC TEMPS AOA FREEZING DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A GOOD DEAL OF MELTING ON ROAD SURFACES
AND COULD POTENTIALLY MAKE THIS A RELATIVELY LOW IMPACT
ADVISORY/WARNING.
EXPECT A TRANSITION TOWARD A LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW PATTERN
LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS INVERTED SFC TROUGH
LIFTS NE AND BLYR FLOW TURNS TO THE WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT AND
UPSLOPE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY-SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY FRIGID
TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES
WEEKEND.
ANOMALOUS WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY
KEEP THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION INTACT INTO NEXT WEEK BUT AT A
DECREASING AMPLITUDE.
AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPARTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A POLAR
VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS HUDSON BAY INTO SE CANADA. COLD AIR
WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE WEEK...REINFORCED
INITIALLY BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE IN A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION/COLD OUTBREAK
FOR VALENTINE`S WEEKEND.
LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOWS FOR SEVERAL DAYS THU-SAT WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL LGT-MDT ACCUMULATION OVER THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS. A NEW ELEMENT IN THE FCST IS DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY.
AT THIS TIME THE 08/00Z ECMWF LIES ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FCST COLD PATTERN/WELL-BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
WINTER APPEARS POISED TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND WITH GFS/EC BOTH
BRINGING -30C AIR AT 850MB INTO PA.
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE PROBABLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES +/- ZERO ARE FCST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
A STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND 1040+MB ARCTIC HIGH DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS -10F TO -25F
DEGREES BELOW ZERO.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FIRST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS NOW WORKING INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
WHILE OVERALL FORECAST CALLS FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST...THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE STEADY
SNOW IS THE CHALLENGING ASPECT OF THIS FORECAST. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO VARY FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION...LIKELY SWITCHING FROM VFR TO MVFR AND THEN BACK
AGAIN TO IFR. THIS THINKING IS DIFFICULT TO TRANSLATE INTO THE
TAFS. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH PREVAILING AREAS OF STEADY
SNOW...WITH LOWERING CONDITIONS...BUT REALIZING THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGH VARIABILITY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE EVENING.
IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD IN WIDESPREAD SNOW. SOME AREAS OF LIFR MAY DEVELOP
IN BANDING OF HEAVIER SNOW...BUT DIFFICULT TO PUT IN AN EXACT
LOCATION AT THIS TIME.
THE COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD... BUT
MAINLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE BREAKS FROM TIME TO
TIME...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THAT PERIOD.
LOOKING AHEAD...SNOW SHOWERS BECOME MORE CONFINED TO WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN MID/LATE WEEK AS SHOT OF QUITE COLD AIR ARRIVES ON
NW FLOW.
OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING. LOCALIZED LIFR POSSIBLE.
WED...MAINLY IFR IN SNOW WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS
CENTRAL/EAST.
THU-SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ024-
033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ025>028-034>036-056-057-059-063.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ064>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1120 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRAVEL ACROSS THE
CWA THIS EVENING. GETTING REPORTS OF A TRACE UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES
SO FAR AS WELL AS SOME SLICK ROADS DUE TO TEMPS FALLING BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA. UPGRADED A FEW MORE COUNTIES ALONG THE
I65/I24 CORRIDOR NORTH OF NASHVILLE TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
EARLIER THIS EVENING AS ADDITIONAL SNOW HAS CAUSED TRAVEL IMPACTS.
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING...WET ROADS WILL BECOME
ICY AND LOOK TO IMPACT MORNING TRAVEL IN THE ADVISORY COUNTIES.
THE HRRR AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS DRAG ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BUT THEY DO APPEAR
WEAKER THAN WHAT THE AREA HAS SEEN SO FAR. KEPT THE FORECAST
MAINLY AS IT WAS...WITH MINOR TWEAKS TO CURRENT OBS AND UPDATED
MODEL TRENDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS TO BETTER MATCH
THE SHORT TERM MODELS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE REST OF THE FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS KEEPING SNOW
SHOWERS ONGOING IN SOME FASHION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CEILINGS AND VISIBLITIES WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE DURING THIS PERIOD
SO AVIATION INTERESTS NEED TO BE AWARE OF SUDDEN CHANGES ON
LANDINGS AND TAKEOFFS.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR CHEATHAM-
CLAY-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-DE KALB-FENTRESS-GRUNDY-JACKSON-MACON-
MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-SMITH-SUMNER-
TROUSDALE-VAN BUREN-WARREN-WHITE-WILSON.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........01/BOYD
LONG TERM..................06/BARNWELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1152 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG CYCLONE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SINK
SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CUTOFF AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE COLDEST OF THE AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL TUESDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE WEEK RESULTING IN A PROLONGED SNOW SHOWER
EVENT ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1140 PM EST MONDAY...
HIGH-RES MODELS ESPECIALLY THE RAP13 SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE
ON THE SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SW VA/NW NC ATTM. SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER PER MESOANALYSIS OFF THE RAP INDICATES MOISTURE AND LOW
LVL INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE ANY SNOW THAT MOVES ACROSS SW VA/NW NC
AND SRN WV THROUGH 06Z. SHOULD PICK UP ANOTHER INCH OR SO BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 2AM...THEN A LULL THEN BETTER UPPER VORT MOVES ACROSS
BY 12Z...WHICH SHOULD BRING ANOTHER AREA OF ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE WRN SLOPES. NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE WINTER WX
HEADLINES. BLOWING SNOW APPEARS TO BECOME AN ISSUE TUESDAY WITH
WINDS PICKING UP BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE.
PREVIOUS MID EVENING DISCUSSION...
TRANSITIONING MORE TOWARD UPSLOPE REGIME AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
NIGHT. BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW FADING ACROSS ROCKBRIDGE/BATH COUNTY
ATTM. UPSTREAM...SNOW SHOWERS ARE SCATTERED FROM THE KY/VA BORDER
INTO PORTIONS OF NE TN...AND ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU OF TN
NEAR I-75. MODELS FAVOR THE NEXT ROUND REACHING SRN WV INTO FAR
NW NC BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1 AM. THIS WILL BE PUTTING DOWN ANOTHER
INCH OF SNOW...WITH POTENTIALLY HIGHER ON THE RIDGES. MESOANALYSIS
STILL SHOWING SOME FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH RESPECT TO HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NC/TN BORDER...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
CONDITIONS FOR INCREASE IN SNOW AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE...EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR UP SOME BEFORE NW FLOW
INCREASES BRINGING MORE CLOUDS IN LATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARL EVENING...
FOCUS IS ON TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW IN THE WEST...BUT OVERALL
RADAR COVERAGE IS MORE SCATTERED THAN CATEGORICAL IN TERMS OF
POPS. WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO THE 22Z HRRR AND 18Z LOCAL WRF AS IT
SLIDES A NARROW BAND OF SNOW ACROSS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
SHENANDOAH VLY AND BLUE RIDGE NORTH OF CARROLL COUNTY VA THROUGH
EVENING. THERE IS SOME GOOD REFLECTIVITY SIGNATURES AND WITH
COLDER AIR ALOFT WE HAVE HAD SOME THUNDERSNOW REPORTS. SOME AREAS
COULD SEE A GOOD 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IN A 1 HOUR PERIOD AND AN SPS
WILL COVER THIS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
ONCE THIS MESOLOW ALONG THE FRONT OVER SW VA MOVES EAST
EXPECT A DRIER PERIOD BUT UPSLOPE KICKS IN.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY AFTERNOON...
TODAY`S PRECIPITATION DID NOT START UNTIL LATE IN THE
MORNING...WHICH ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO PEAK IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWERS 40S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
EAST. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BROUGHT SOME SNOW
TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND WHITE RAIN TO THE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS PRECIPITATION LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON BY 5F OR SO. BECAUSE THE WARM BOUNDARY IS SO
SHALLOW...SNOW WAS ABLE TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND EVEN...THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WERE ABOVE FREEZING.
THE FIRST COLD FRONT...LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT. THIS FRONT MAY BE A FEW HOURS
SLOWER TO CLEAR THE AREA...AS A SURFACE REFLECTION DEVELOPS ALONG
THE FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION
WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SNOW OR WHITE RAIN ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND A COLD RAIN IN THE EAST. A SECOND COLD FRONT
WITH ARCTIC AIR WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION AHEAD AND BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE ALL SNOW WITH
ACCUMULATIONS PRIMARILY ALONG WESTERN SLOPES. WESTERN SLOPES OF
GREENBRIER AND SUMMERS COUNTY COULD SEE 2-3 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. WESTERN SLOPES FROM THE BLUEFIELD-RICHLANDS AREA TO
THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTY
COULD HAVE 1-2 INCHES...POSSIBLE 3-4 INCHES ABOVE 4000 FT.
FOR HEADLINES...WE WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE FIRST FRONT THROUGH 6PM THIS EVENING FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.
WE WILL ALLOW THIS ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. WE WILL THEN UPGRADE THE
CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR WESTERN
SLOPES OF GREENBRIER COUNTY SOUTH INTO SUMMERS AND MERCER COUNTY.
OTHER COUNTIES IN THE WATCH WILL BE CHANGED TO A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS TO THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AND
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTY. AT THIS TIME...NO OTHER
COUNTIES WILL HAVE HEADLINES TO INCLUDED THE NEW RIVER AND ROANOKE
VALLEYS...WHO MAY SEE SOME SNOW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ONLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SHORT
WAVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...IN THE RANGE OF -30 TO -36 WILL PROVIDE SOME
LIFT AND RELATIVE INSTABILITY. THIS SHOULD EXTEND SNOW SHOWERS
WELL EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
ROANOKE. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP...REACHING -18
TO -20 BY 12Z/7AM THURSDAY. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN BUT SUBTLE DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN SPEED AND LOCATION OF
SHORT WAVED EMBEDDED IN THE LARGE UPPER TROF.
ENOUGH COLD AIR COMING IN THAT WESTERN SLOPE LOCATIONS AND AREAS
WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL HAVE STEADY OR EVEN SLIGHTLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS OF 25:1 BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH DRY AIR AND DOWNSLOPING
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO HAVE SOME CLEARING EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST MONDAY...
EASTERN UPPER TROF GETS RE-ENFORCED FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THEN TROF AXIS MOVES OF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS BRING A CLIPPER ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
MONDAY THEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY TUESDAY. WPC SUGGESTED
THE TRACK OFF THE ECMWF MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH.
SOME 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR. BEST LIFT LOOKS
TO BE ON FRIDAY WITH SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE. SNOW SHOULD BE MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN JUST UPSLOPE. THEN GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW WIND
CHILL VALUES ON FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST
850 MB WINDS APPROACHING 50 KNOTS. WIND CHILLS WILL AGAIN BE IN
ADVISORY CRITERIA...BETWEEN -5 TO -19 IN THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.
A ROUGHLY 1045 MB SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ENOUGH WITH
THE APPROACH OF THIS HIGH...AND WITH THE ASSOCIATED DRY AIR...TO
END UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1145 PM EST MONDAY...
WILL SEE A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AFFECT MAINLY BLF AND SOME AT
BCB/LWB EARLY WITH IFR/MVFR VSBYS/CIGS. FURTHER EAST CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWED FOR FOG FORMATION AT LYH/DAN THANKS
TO EARLIER RAINFALL. EXPECT THE FOG STAYING AROUND THROUGH 09Z
THEN SOME IMPROVEMENT FROM LIFR/IFR TO MVFR. AS WINDS PICK UP AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS AFTER 12Z LOOK FOR VFR VSBYS. OVERALL
CIGS FROM ROA EAST SHOULD STAY VFR...POTENTIALLY TOUCH HIGH END
MVFR IF A FLURRY OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWER PASSES BUT SEEMS THAT THE
TIME PERIOD FOR THIS IS SMALL AND NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION IN
THE TAF.
A DECENT UPPER DISTURBANCE IS GOING TO MOVE OVER SRN WV/SW VA
10-14Z...WHICH WILL BRING AN AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD
BLF/LWB. THIS WILL BRING CIGS/VSBYS BACK TOWARD IFR MAINLY BLF.
ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES BY WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP BUT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD FROM
BCB TO BLF/LWB...WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS BLF/LWB AND LOW END VFR AT
BCB.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SUB-VFR SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN
SLOPES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK WITH PROLONGED MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT KBLF/KLWB IN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. POTENTIAL ALSO FOR PERIODS OF MVFR AT
KBCB/KROA AS IMPULSES ROTATE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND BANDS OF
SNOW DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FLURRIES MAY ALSO
OCCUR AS FAR EAST AS THE PIEDMONT WHERE INTERVALS OF VFR TO MVFR
CIGS COULD ALSO OCCUR.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN TO MAINLY VFR THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND MOISTURE DECREASES.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH MAY BRING SUB VFR
CONDITIONS WITH WINTRY PRECIP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES BY SAT MORNING WITH GUSTY WINDS AND UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS WITH SUB VFR IN THE MTNS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ007-
009>012-015-019-020.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ042>044-
507.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ043-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...RCS/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
309 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE LIGHT SNOW AND HOW PESKY IT WILL BE
TODAY/THIS EVENING.
CURRENTLY...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE US THANKS TO A CLOSED 500MB LOW CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS
NORTH OF THIS CLOSED LOW ALONG WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN ON UP TO
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHWEST HUDSON BAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS CENTERED TO THE EAST OF DETROIT WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING WEST FROM THIS LOW INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS
FEATURE HELPED TO CREATE SOME STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT BUT HAS MAINLY PUSHED THEM TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN DROPPING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
THE POOL OF COLD LOW LEVEL AIR HAS BEEN PULLED SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA ALONG THE WESTERN GRADIENT OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH.
THE 09.06Z RAP SHOWS 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING FROM -13C AT 7Z TO -
19C BY 00Z THIS EVENING. GIVEN THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION AND OVERCAST
CONDITIONS...EXPECT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
CLIMBING MUCH TODAY. AS FOR SNOWFALL POTENTIAL...THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT LINGERS IN WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH SOME DECENT QG FORCING IN THE 850-500MB LAYER OVER THIS
PERIOD. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN...THE SATURATED PORTION OF
THE THERMAL PROFILE FROM JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ON UP TO AROUND
700MB WILL BE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SO AM EXPECTING THIS TO
CONTINUE TO BE A HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO SITUATION. IF THERE IS
ONE PERIOD TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT IS THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
PERIOD WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
ROTATE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW AND COULD PROVIDE
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. AS OF NOW...HAVE AN AROUND AN
INCH OF ACCUMULATION ALONG THE LAKE WITH LESSER AMOUNTS THE FURTHER
WEST YOU GET.
.WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
PRIMARY MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN LAKES
THOUGH BROAD EXPANSE OF THE TROUGH STILL FELT HERE WITH MAINLY
SHEARED VORT RIDING SE IN THE FLOW. COLD LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH
IN PLACE WITH 925 TEMPS -16C TO -18C. WIND CHILLS PROGGD TO BE
WELL BELOW ZERO EARLY ON BUT NOT QUITE REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS.
BUFKIT SHOWS ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE.
WILL RETAIN DRY FORECAST. LLVL RH PROGS AND MOS SUGGEST SOME CLOUD
COVER WILL LINGER WITHIN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW AND CHILLY THERMAL TROUGH.
.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ELONGATED SHEAR AXIS ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH
WILL SHIFT EAST WITH STRONG NW UPPER FLOW PERSISTING. VERY CHILLY
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH 925 TEMPS SHOWING ONLY SUBTLE
MODIFICATION. SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO IA AND RIDGES INTO THE MID
MISS VLY.
.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
250 MILLIBAR SPEED MAX DRIVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH MODELS
SHOWING A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM WITH LIGHT QPF AHEAD OF NEXT ARCTIC
SURGE. WEAK SHOT OF WAA WITH MOSTLY SHEARED VORT. 00Z ECMWF
CONTINUED TREND OF 12Z RUN TO GENERATE A BIT MORE QPF AREA WIDE
THAN THE GFS OR GEM. WILL GO WITH BLENDED POPS FOR NOW AS GFS/GEM
IN AGREEMENT WITH LESS QPF AND CONFINED MORE TO THE SW AND SRN PTN
OF THE CWA.
.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS EXPECTED WITH 1045 MILLIBAR HIGH BUILDING
IN FROM THE DAKOTAS THIS PERIOD. WILL LIKELY SEE WIND CHILLS WELL
BELOW ZERO FRI NGT INTO SAT MRNG. 925 TEMPS PROGGD TO -20C TO
-24C.
.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE SHIFTS ESE FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. MEANWHILE SOME MODEL DIVERGENCE ON PLACEMENT OF LOW LEVEL
FEATURES. THE GFS SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN TROUGH WHILE
THE ECMWF CARVES OUT A STRONGER MORE SOUTHERN LOW VCNTY MO. THERE
IS SOME AGREEMENT THAT 850 WAA WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES IN SFC/850 LOW
PLACEMENT. SO WILL BE USING SUPERBLEND POPS AS THESE SEEM
REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.
.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A MORE SRN SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO
SFC/850 LOW TRACKS WHILE THE GFS TRACKS SFC LOW/TROUGH ACROSS WI.
SO AGAIN DESPITE SOME DIFFERENCES THE MAIN MESSAGE WILL BE SNOW
CHANCES CONTINUING AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MVFR TO VFR
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WITH A FEW BRIEF DROPS TO IFR OCCURRING
WHEN SOME STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS PASS THROUGH. WITH LOW PRESSURE
LINGERING IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...EXPECT THAT THE LIGHT
SNOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS WHERE THE VISIBILITY
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 3- 5SM RANGE WITH SOME VERY BRIEF IFR 2SM
CONDITIONS STILL POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE LAKE WHERE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SNOW IS TODAY/TONIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MVFR RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT THOUGH SOME
BREAKS TO VFR ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AND GUSTY AT TIMES INTO THE 20-24KT RANGE.
&&
.MARINE...OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
INTO WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN HIGH
PLAINS. WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS PERIOD. WAVES WILL BE
THE HIGHEST TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE AS WELL GIVEN THE
NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HALBACH
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
545 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...
334 AM CST
THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE FORECAST THEME OF LIGHT SNOW WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE SNOW
SHOWERS REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATION. ATTENTION ALSO IS ON PORTER COUNTY INDIANA WHERE
TEMPORARY BUT MORE APPRECIABLE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AT TIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME NO HEADLINES ARE
PLANNED TO BE ISSUED AS ONLY MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME AND SOME UNCERTAINTY ON DURATION. AN AREA WIDE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT WAS AGAIN ISSUED AND ONE MORE FOCUSED FOR PORTER
COUNTY. ALSO ON TRACK IS THE COLD WHICH LOOKS TO PROVIDE AREA WIDE
SUBZERO WIND CHILLS TO START WEDNESDAY MORNING AND PROBABLY
THURSDAY TOO.
THE IMPRESSIVELY AMPLIFIED TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA IS
EVER SO SLOWLY INCHING EASTWARD. WITH A VIGOROUS 150KT UPPER JET
ON ITS WESTERN EDGE...THERE REMAINS NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE DISTURBANCES AND THEIR LIFT
WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
HELP THE SNOW TO CONTINUE TODAY. THE LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL BRING SHARPLY REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND SWATHS OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. A
GENERAL WEST-TO-EAST FADE IN THIS SYNOPTIC ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND LITTLE IF AT ALL TODAY WITH MID TEENS TO MID 20S EXPECTED
FROM WEST TO EAST WITH WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH ADDING AN EXTRA CHILL
TO THE AIR.
AS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE LOW LEVELS...CHARACTERIZED BY 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING
TO -15C OR COLDER BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WILL HELP STRENGTHEN LAKE-
INDUCED INSTABILITY. MODIFIED RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS FOR MID 30S
SURFACE TEMPERATURES PROVIDE CAPE OF 50 J/KG MUCH OF TODAY. BOTH
OF THESE MODELS INDICATE TRANSIENT BUT STRONG LOW-LEVEL OMEGA INTO
PORTER COUNTY TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
TO BE SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED DUE TO A LACK OF A CONFLUENT
FOCUS...BUT STILL ENOUGH OF A DURATION TO PROVIDE 12-24 HOUR
SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 2-3 POSSIBLY 4 INCHES TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
THE HIGHER END IN NORTHEAST PORTER. THE BETTER SIGNAL FOR THE
CONFLUENT FLOW REMAINS JUST EAST OF OUR AREA WHERE ADVISORIES WILL
GO INTO EFFECT FROM ADJACENT NWS NORTHERN INDIANA DURING THE MID-
AFTERNOON.
THE STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW STILL IN PLACE TONIGHT SHOULD WARRANT
CLOUDS THOUGH SOME BREAKS COULD HAPPEN IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THE 4KM SPC WRF COLUMN CONDENSATE FIELD WHICH
OFTEN DOES WELL WITH CAA STRATOCU KEEPS CLOUDS AROUND A GOOD PART
OF THE NIGHT AS WELL...LENDING TO A LITTLE HIGHER CONFIDENCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL WITHIN THIS REGIME AND SINGLE DIGITS
ARE EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THE
CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD COVER DROPS QUITE A BIT WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH DO ANTICIPATE A GENERAL DIMINISHING TREND
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE A CHILLY ONE...WITH
SOME OUTLYING NEAR OR EVEN SUBZERO LOWS POSSIBLE.
SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY OUTSIDE OF SOME
CONTINUED LIGHTER LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN PORTER
COUNTY...ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE GRADUALLY
BACKING SO IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE MUCH.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
345 AM CST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
WINTER CONTINUES GOING FORWARD INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SHEARED SHORT WAVE DIVING OVER OR NEAR THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW.
MOST MODELS AND EVEN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE LIGHT QPF WITH
THIS. IT IS A FEW DAYS AWAY YET BUT IT HAS THE LOOK OF ONE OF
THOSE CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEMS THAT COULD PRODUCE A NARROW SWATH OF
POSSIBLY A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW GIVEN FAVORABLE THERMAL PROFILES
FOR SNOW GROWTH AND LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WINDS.
THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET AGAIN BUCKLES BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WITH AN ARCTIC HIGH OF 1040MB + EXPECTED
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SYNOPTIC
REGIME CONTINUES TO RESEMBLE ONE THAT COULD SUPPORT MESOSCALE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW...POSSIBLY EVEN HEAVY...WITH CONVERGENCE POINTED
TOWARD SOME OF THE CWA. AT THIS TIME THAT LOOKS TO BE MORE
NORTHWEST INDIANA. AGAIN FAR TOO EARLY FOR SOMETHING OF THAT SCALE
TO HAVE BIG CONFIDENCE IN...BUT DID INCREASE SNOW CHANCES IN FAR
NORTHWEST INDIANA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES EXPECTED. LOW END VFR/HIGH END MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL NOT BECOME MORE NORTH THAN
320 DEGREES. ON THE OTHER HAND...HAVE MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE IN
SNOW INTENSITY THIS AFTN. GUIDANCE FEATURES INCREASING
FORCING...SO KEPT A TEMPO FOR IFR VSBY WITH MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS.
SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING WITH VFR CIGS.
GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE SUMMARY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT SNOW INTO THIS
EVENING AND GUSTY NW WINDS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS...AND
MEDIUM- LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND OCCURRENCE OF MODERATE SNOW
SHOWERS THIS AFTN.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
258 AM CST
ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE FROM
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS JUST
HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE THE WARNING...BUT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ANY
GALES WILL BE ON THE LOW END OF THE SPECTRUM. NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH GOES THROUGH THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE IL NEARSHORE WATERS...AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS DUE TO HAZARDOUS WINDS AND
WAVES.
A WEAK LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO REACHES NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...AND
THEN MERGES WITH A DEEPER LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD SOUTH
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO LOW END GALES THIS MORNING AND PERSIST
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
LAKE. OCCASIONAL GALES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
LAKE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS TO HOIST A GALE WARNING
FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE LAKE.
THE HIGH PASSES SOUTH OF THE LAKE THURSDAY EVENING AND WINDS WILL
BECOME WEST 15-25 KT. A WEAK LOW FORMS OVER ONTARIO THURSDAY
EVENING AND REACHES NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME A
LARGE HIGH SPREADS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS INCREASING TO AT LEAST 30 KT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE LAKE
SATURDAY EVENING AND CONTINUES EAST TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOME SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH SUNDAY.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 AM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
809 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW EXPANDING. AXIS
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS DIGGING IN ACROSS WESTERN
OHIO...DEEPENING A SECONDARY MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER. THE RESULTANT DEFORMATION ZONE GAVE RISE TO A MODERATE
SNOW BAND THAT STRETCHED WEST TO EAST FROM WILMINGTON OH TO NEAR
CLARKSBURG WV. THIS FORCING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY PIVOT AROUND
THE MID-LEVEL LOW...SPREADING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS SHOULD IMPACT THE REMAINING COMMUTE FOR THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ADVISED AREAS...WITH LESS OF AN IMPACT
NEAR THE PITTSBURGH METRO.
HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FAIRLY SHARP GRADIENT ALONG
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW TODAY. LATEST HRRR RUN HAS COME MORE
IN LINE WITH THE WRF ARW/NMM...KEEPING THE HEAVIEST SNOW JUST
SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH BUT STILL IMPACTING SOUTHERN ALLEGHENY COUNTY.
HAVE ADJUSTED SNOW AMOUNTS ACCORDINGLY BY TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT
FROM NEAR PITTSBURGH TO NEAR ZANESVILLE. WHILE THIS MEANS A
FURTHER REDUCTION IN THE FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE ADVISORY COUNTIES...OPTED TO STAND PAT WITH THE
CURRENT HEADLINES.
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH AND INTO THE RIDGES SHOULD SEE
SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE LIFT WEAKENS AND DEPARTS. STILL
EXPECTING 4 TO 6 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION FROM NEAR THE MASON-DIXON
LINE AND SOUTH. SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS TONIGHT...BUT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE RIDGE COUNTIES AS
THE FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
DESCENDS UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THEIR DOWNWARD TREND AS HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
TODAY...AND LOWS WILL DROP TO NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT.
TAX
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
H500 TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST EARLY ON WEDNESDAY AS CLOSED LOW OPENS
UP. NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE DURING THE DAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
COLD ADVECTION. INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP A BIT AS COMPARED TO TODAY
AND OVERALL MOISTURE LEVEL IS LOWER...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE IS
PRESENT IN DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE TO PROMOTE ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR TWO...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES.
COLD ADVECTION SLOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOISTURE BECOMES MORE
SHALLOW WITH TIME...WHICH WILL SLOW ACCUMULATION A BIT. ANOTHER
INCH OR SO IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...LESS TO THE
WEST. H850 THERMAL TROUGH ARRIVES AND CROSSES ON THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL HELP TO DIMINISH COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. ONLY A FEW SHSN
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ALONG THE RIDGES AND NORTH OF I-80 BY
EVENING...WITH A DRY WINDOW EXPECTED AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP FURTHER BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE HERE.
CL
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...LASTING INTO SATURDAY. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR
NOW. THE MAIN STORY HERE WILL BE THE POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO FALL TO -25C
OR EVEN A BIT COLDER BY 00Z SUNDAY. BELOW ZERO MIN TEMPS ARE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY IF SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
DECOUPLE.
A DRY AND COLD SUNDAY IS EXPECTED AS THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY AS THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH LOOSENS ITS GRIP...BUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RETURN AS WELL WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WAS USED AS A BASIS FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
CL
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THIS MORNING AS SPATIAL
COVERAGE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EXPANDS. SO FAR THIS MORNING IT
APPEARS THAT VISIBILITIES LESS THAN A MILE ARE MORE A RESULT OF
FOG THAN A RESULT OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECTING AT LEAST
MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE DAY AS SNOW LIFTS NORTHWARD
UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER. GREATEST IMPACTS SHOULD
BE TO THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF LBE/MGW/AGC WITH SNOW LASTING INTO
THE EVENING. GUIDANCE HINTING AT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST.
STILL...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SO
RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL TO BE EXPECTED. LIGHT SURFACE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. TAX
.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER COLD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049-
050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021-
029-031-073-075.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
WVZ510>514.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
637 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW EXPANDING. AXIS
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS DIGGING IN ACROSS WESTERN
OHIO...DEEPENING A SECONDARY MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER. THE RESULTANT DEFORMATION ZONE GAVE RISE TO A MODERATE
SNOW BAND THAT STRETCHED WEST TO EAST FROM WILMINGTON OH TO NEAR
CLARKSBURG WV. THIS FORCING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY PIVOT AROUND
THE MID-LEVEL LOW...SPREADING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS SHOULD IMPACT THE REMAINING COMMUTE FOR THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ADVISED AREAS...WITH LESS OF AN IMPACT
NEAR THE PITTSBURGH METRO.
HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FAIRLY SHARP GRADIENT ALONG
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW TODAY. LATEST HRRR RUN HAS COME MORE
IN LINE WITH THE WRF ARW/NMM...KEEPING THE HEAVIEST SNOW JUST
SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH BUT STILL IMPACTING SOUTHERN ALLEGHENY COUNTY.
HAVE ADJUSTED SNOW AMOUNTS ACCORDINGLY BY TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT
FROM NEAR PITTSBURGH TO NEAR ZANESVILLE. WHILE THIS MEANS A
FURTHER REDUCTION IN THE FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE ADVISORY COUNTIES...OPTED TO STAND PAT WITH THE
CURRENT HEADLINES.
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH AND INTO THE RIDGES SHOULD SEE
SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE LIFT WEAKENS AND DEPARTS. STILL
EXPECTING 4 TO 6 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION FROM NEAR THE MASON-DIXON
LINE AND SOUTH. SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS TONIGHT...BUT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE RIDGE COUNTIES AS
THE FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
DESCENDS UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THEIR DOWNWARD TREND AS HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
TODAY...AND LOWS WILL DROP TO NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT.
TAX
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
H500 TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST EARLY ON WEDNESDAY AS CLOSED LOW OPENS
UP. NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE DURING THE DAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
COLD ADVECTION. INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP A BIT AS COMPARED TO TODAY
AND OVERALL MOISTURE LEVEL IS LOWER...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE IS
PRESENT IN DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE TO PROMOTE ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR TWO...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES.
COLD ADVECTION SLOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOISTURE BECOMES MORE
SHALLOW WITH TIME...WHICH WILL SLOW ACCUMULATION A BIT. ANOTHER
INCH OR SO IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...LESS TO THE
WEST. H850 THERMAL TROUGH ARRIVES AND CROSSES ON THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL HELP TO DIMINISH COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. ONLY A FEW SHSN
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ALONG THE RIDGES AND NORTH OF I-80 BY
EVENING...WITH A DRY WINDOW EXPECTED AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP FURTHER BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE HERE.
CL
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...LASTING INTO SATURDAY. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR
NOW. THE MAIN STORY HERE WILL BE THE POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO FALL TO -25C
OR EVEN A BIT COLDER BY 00Z SUNDAY. BELOW ZERO MIN TEMPS ARE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY IF SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
DECOUPLE.
A DRY AND COLD SUNDAY IS EXPECTED AS THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY AS THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH LOOSENS ITS GRIP...BUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RETURN AS WELL WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WAS USED AS A BASIS FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
CL
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THIS MORNING AS SPATIAL
COVERAGE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EXPANDS. EXPECTING AT LEAST
MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE DAY AS SNOW LIFTS NORTHWARD
UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER. GREATEST IMPACTS SHOULD BE
TO THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF LBE/MGW/AGC WITH SNOW LASTING INTO
THE EVENING. GUIDANCE HINTING AT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST.
STILL...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SO
RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL TO BE EXPECTED. LIGHT SURFACE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT.
TAX
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER COLD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049-
050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021-
029-031-073-075.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
WVZ510>514.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
816 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A
PROMINENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIGE OVER THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SE CONUS. AT THE
SFC...STRONG NRLY FLOW PREVAILED THROUGH THE WRN LAKES BTWN A RIDGE
OVER THE PLAINS AND A LOW NEAR THE SRN END OF LAKE HURON. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -22C AND
THE PRESENCE OF ABUNDANTY 850-500 MB MOISTURE SUPPORTED MODERATE TO
HEAVY LES INTO THE WRN CWA NEAR IWD WHERE THE LOW LEVEL CONV WAS
STRONGEST. LES ALSO CONTINUED OVER THE REST OF NRN UPPER MI BUT WAS
NOT AS HEAVY.
TODAY...THE MODELS WERE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS DROPPING TO AROUND 4K FT. SO...WITH DIMINISHING
SNOWFALL RATES EXPECTED...THE LES WARNING/ADVISORIES EXPIRATION OF
21Z LOOKS ON TRACK AFTER ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES.
HOWEVER...LIGHTER LES WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. EVEN WITH LESS
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONV INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI...EXPECT LES WILL
INCREASE TODAY WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE.
IN ADDITION...THE GUSTY N WINDS ALONG THE LAKE WILL PRODUCE
CONSIDERABLE BLSN. AN ADVY WAS ISSUED FOR MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTIES
WHICH WILL EXTEND INTO WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NORMAL WITH HIGHS
FROM 10 TO 15 OVER THE WEST HALF TO THE LOW 20S AND EAST.
TONIGHT...A WEAK SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE NRN LAKES FROM NW ONTARIO
ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL HELP BOOST SNOWFALL
RATES...MAINLY OVER THE CNTRL AREAS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LONGER
FETCHAND WHERE UPSTREAM LOW LEVEL DRYING WILL HAVE LESS INFLUENCE.
LAND BREEZES AND SLIGHTLY VEERING WINDS MAY HELP INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONV INTO EASTERN MARQUETTE AND WRN ALGER COUNTIES WHERE ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THE DGZ
LOWERING CLOSER TO THE SFC AND GREATER DRYING...EXPECT MAINLY 1 TO 4
INCH AMOUNTS OVER THE WEST. EVEN WITH THE VERY COLD AIRMASS OVER THE
AREA...THE LAKE INFLUENCE WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 0 TO 5F RANGE WEST
AND 5 TO 10 EAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE BROAD 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WEST.
THE SHORTWAVE THAT SLID THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P. WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SLIDING
EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO EXIT TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF
THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER.
THE MORE FOCUSED SNOW WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN U.P. AS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LINGER THERE THE LONGEST AND THAT AREA WILL BE IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SHORTWAVE AXIS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
CHILLY AIR AT 850MB IN THE -20C TO -23C RANGE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THE MOISTURE AND
CONVECTIVE LAYER WERE DEEPER IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. INVERSION HEIGHTS
WILL BE AROUND 6-8KFT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...HOWEVER...THE BETTER MOISTURE IS ONLY PROGGED TO BE IN
PLACE THROUGH ABOUT 5-6KFT. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL CANADA. WILL STILL
SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH DIMINISHED RATE...FOR
MORE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EAST WITH THE INCREASED FETCH.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER
TO THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE
INFLECTION POINT BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE TO THE
WEST. THE GFS/EC ARE SHOWING A 500MB CLOSED LOW SLIDING ACROSS
HUDSON BAY THURSDAY NIGHT TO CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THIS HAPPENS...EXPECT A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TO ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA WITH INCREASED MOISTURE WRAPPING THROUGH THE EAST
HALF OF THE CWA. THE MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO SLIDE
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL FOR NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED AREAS.
AGAIN...WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE SLIDING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE
U.P. PLACED THE LIKELY POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THOSE AREAS NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR MOVING IN WILL PRESS THE
FAVORED DGZ DOWN TO THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IT WILL
BE FAIRLY SHALLOW TOO. THIS WOULD KEEP SNOWFLAKE SIZE FAIRLY SMALL
AND SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS A BIT LOWER. THE THINGS HINTING TOWARD
HEAVIER SNOWFALL INTENSITY/ MORE PERSISTENT SNOW OVER THE EAST IS
THE INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO JUMP UP TO NEAR 8KFT OR SO ALONG
WITH INCREASED FORCING IN THAT LAYER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GFS AND EC ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT ON
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SLIDING INTO THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE MOVING FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EASTWARD INTO THE CWA. THIS...ALONG WITH DRIER AIR AND THE SLOW
APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...SHOULD HELP TO DIMINISH THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THIS WORKS OUT
AND THE SURFACE RIDGE IS OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF SUBSTANTIALLY
ACROSS THE CWA WITH LOWS POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS DIVERGE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS
THE GFS TRIES TO BRING A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE EC KEEPS A
SURFACE RIDGE...DRIER AIR AND UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGE IN THE AREA
THROUGH MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THIS POINT WENT WITH A
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS GIVING ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 816 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
A CYCLONIC NNW FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL PERSIST THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
WITH DEEP MOISTURE ALSO LINGERING OVER THE W INTO THIS
AFTERNOON..EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE AT IWD AND CMX.
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR AT LEAST A GOOD PORTION OF
THE TIME AT THOSE SITES BY LATE AFTERNOON FOLLOWING EXIT OF THE
DEEPER MOISTURE. BUT IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. FOR
SAW...MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY WILL GIVE WAY TO IFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO A MORE FAVORABLE NRLY
DIRECTION IN THE PRESENCE OF MORE PERSISTENT DEEPER MOISTURE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN LAKE HURON WILL EXIT THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED N WINDS TO 20
TO 30KNOTS WITH AND GALES TO 35KTS OVER N CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
E HALF. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH THE HEAVIEST FREEZING
SPRAY INTO WED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN
ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE N PLAINS TUESDAY SLOWLY GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA
OF STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION BY THE START OF THE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ006.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ001-003.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ002-009.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ005.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY
FOR LSZ162-263>266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...- NONE -
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
532 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A
PROMINENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIGE OVER THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SE CONUS. AT THE
SFC...STRONG NRLY FLOW PREVAILED THROUGH THE WRN LAKES BTWN A RIDGE
OVER THE PLAINS AND A LOW NEAR THE SRN END OF LAKE HURON. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -22C AND
THE PRESENCE OF ABUNDANTY 850-500 MB MOISTURE SUPPORTED MODERATE TO
HEAVY LES INTO THE WRN CWA NEAR IWD WHERE THE LOW LEVEL CONV WAS
STRONGEST. LES ALSO CONTINUED OVER THE REST OF NRN UPPER MI BUT WAS
NOT AS HEAVY.
TODAY...THE MODELS WERE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS DROPPING TO AROUND 4K FT. SO...WITH DIMINISHING
SNOWFALL RATES EXPECTED...THE LES WARNING/ADVISORIES EXPIRATION OF
21Z LOOKS ON TRACK AFTER ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES.
HOWEVER...LIGHTER LES WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. EVEN WITH LESS
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONV INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI...EXPECT LES WILL
INCREASE TODAY WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE.
IN ADDITION...THE GUSTY N WINDS ALONG THE LAKE WILL PRODUCE
CONSIDERABLE BLSN. AN ADVY WAS ISSUED FOR MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTIES
WHICH WILL EXTEND INTO WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NORMAL WITH HIGHS
FROM 10 TO 15 OVER THE WEST HALF TO THE LOW 20S AND EAST.
TONIGHT...A WEAK SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE NRN LAKES FROM NW ONTARIO
ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL HELP BOOST SNOWFALL
RATES...MAINLY OVER THE CNTRL AREAS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LONGER
FETCHAND WHERE UPSTREAM LOW LEVEL DRYING WILL HAVE LESS INFLUENCE.
LAND BREEZES AND SLIGHTLY VEERING WINDS MAY HELP INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONV INTO EASTERN MARQUETTE AND WRN ALGER COUNTIES WHERE ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THE DGZ
LOWERING CLOSER TO THE SFC AND GREATER DRYING...EXPECT MAINLY 1 TO 4
INCH AMOUNTS OVER THE WEST. EVEN WITH THE VERY COLD AIRMASS OVER THE
AREA...THE LAKE INFLUENCE WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 0 TO 5F RANGE WEST
AND 5 TO 10 EAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE BROAD 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WEST.
THE SHORTWAVE THAT SLID THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P. WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SLIDING
EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO EXIT TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF
THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER.
THE MORE FOCUSED SNOW WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN U.P. AS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LINGER THERE THE LONGEST AND THAT AREA WILL BE IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SHORTWAVE AXIS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
CHILLY AIR AT 850MB IN THE -20C TO -23C RANGE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THE MOISTURE AND
CONVECTIVE LAYER WERE DEEPER IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. INVERSION HEIGHTS
WILL BE AROUND 6-8KFT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...HOWEVER...THE BETTER MOISTURE IS ONLY PROGGED TO BE IN
PLACE THROUGH ABOUT 5-6KFT. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL CANADA. WILL STILL
SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH DIMINISHED RATE...FOR
MORE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EAST WITH THE INCREASED FETCH.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER
TO THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE
INFLECTION POINT BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE TO THE
WEST. THE GFS/EC ARE SHOWING A 500MB CLOSED LOW SLIDING ACROSS
HUDSON BAY THURSDAY NIGHT TO CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THIS HAPPENS...EXPECT A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TO ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA WITH INCREASED MOISTURE WRAPPING THROUGH THE EAST
HALF OF THE CWA. THE MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO SLIDE
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL FOR NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED AREAS.
AGAIN...WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE SLIDING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE
U.P. PLACED THE LIKELY POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THOSE AREAS NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR MOVING IN WILL PRESS THE
FAVORED DGZ DOWN TO THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IT WILL
BE FAIRLY SHALLOW TOO. THIS WOULD KEEP SNOWFLAKE SIZE FAIRLY SMALL
AND SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS A BIT LOWER. THE THINGS HINTING TOWARD
HEAVIER SNOWFALL INTENSITY/ MORE PERSISTENT SNOW OVER THE EAST IS
THE INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO JUMP UP TO NEAR 8KFT OR SO ALONG
WITH INCREASED FORCING IN THAT LAYER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GFS AND EC ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT ON
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SLIDING INTO THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE MOVING FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EASTWARD INTO THE CWA. THIS...ALONG WITH DRIER AIR AND THE SLOW
APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...SHOULD HELP TO DIMINISH THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THIS WORKS OUT
AND THE SURFACE RIDGE IS OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF SUBSTANTIALLY
ACROSS THE CWA WITH LOWS POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS DIVERGE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS
THE GFS TRIES TO BRING A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE EC KEEPS A
SURFACE RIDGE...DRIER AIR AND UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGE IN THE AREA
THROUGH MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THIS POINT WENT WITH A
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS GIVING ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 146 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
A CYC NNW FLOW OF COLD AIR WL PERSIST THIS FCST PERIOD. WITH DEEP
MSTR ALSO LINGERING OVER THE W INTO THIS AFTN...EXPECT IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE AT IWD AND CMX. CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR AT LEAST A GOOD PORTION OF THE TIME AT THOSE
SITES IN THE AFTN FOLLOWING EXIT OF DEEPER MSTR. BUT IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. FOR SAW...VFR/MVFR WX EARLY WL GIVE WAY TO
IFR CONDITIONS LASTER THIS MRNG AS THE LLVL FLOW VEERS TO A MORE
FAVORABLE DUE N DIRECTION IN THE PRESENCE OF MORE PERSISTENT DEEPER
MSTR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN LAKE HURON WILL EXIT THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED N WINDS TO 20
TO 30KNOTS WITH AND GALES TO 35KTS OVER N CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
E HALF. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH THE HEAVIEST FREEZING
SPRAY INTO WED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN
ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE N PLAINS TUESDAY SLOWLY GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA
OF STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION BY THE START OF THE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ006.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ001-003.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ002-009.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ005.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY
FOR LSZ162-263>266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
951 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
TODAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE A BLAST OF VERY
COLD AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM TUESDAY...VSBY SATELLITE SHOWING SOME CLOUDINESS OVER
OUR WESTERN CWA WITH LIGHT RADAR RETURNS...BUT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT INDICATING ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY MAKING IT TO
THE SURFACE. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50. LIGHT WSW WILL INCREASE AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON PER LATEST HRRR MODEL. MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...CLOUDINESS WITH SHRT WV ENERGY WILL
CONTINUE INTO EVENING...THEN SOME CLEARING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
CONTINUED ADVECTION OF ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL DROP MIN TEMPS INTO
MID TO UPR 20S INLAND AND LOW-MID 30S OBX EVEN WITH WEST WINDS
5-15 MPH KEEPING MIXED ATMOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUE...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NE STATES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NE WED AND
WED NIGHT WHILE DEEP TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN US. PRED DRY
AND COLD WED AND THU. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ALONG THE OUTER BANKS WED NIGHT...THOUGH EXPECT
MOST OF PRECIP TO REMAIN OFFSHORE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
SUPPORT HIGHS WED IN THE LOW 40S AND 35-40 DEG THU...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 20S.
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH 00Z SOLUTIONS NOW SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. STILL LOOKS LIKE STRONG FORCING AS SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH WHILE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE SHORTWAVE COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SEE SOME -RA/-SN SHOWERS. ECMWF REMAINS
WARMER THEN THE GFS AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...WITH PTYPE MAINLY
LIQUID WHILE THE GFS SUPPORTS MORE OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX. WILL
CONTINUE SC -RA/-SN MENTION THOUGH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH VERY COLD/DRY AIRMASS PUSHING
INTO THE REGION. VERY COLD 1035-1040MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NNW SAT AND SUN. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB
TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS SAT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S...AND EVEN
COLDER FOR SUN. WITH 850MB TEMPS -15 TO -20C HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH FREEZING SUNDAY...COMBINED WITH GUSTY NLY WINDS IT WILL
FEEL LIKE TEMPS IN THE TEENS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S ALONG THE
COAST...BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. WILL KEEP SC MENTION OF
-SN SHOWERS OVER THE OUTER BANKS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH STRONG
FORCING OVER THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL NNW FLOW.
EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
MODELS ARE PUSHING A TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION AND DEVELOPING A
SFC LOW OFF THE SE COAST LATE MON AND TUE...WITH BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. ADDED SC POP FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUE. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING...PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM TUESDAY...LCL IFR CIG AND/OR VSBY WILL AFFECT TAF
SITES UNTIL 13Z...THEN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH INCREASING WEST
WINDS. AREA OF SCU/AC WITH UPR LVL ENERGY ALREADY MOVING INTO
COASTAL PLAINS...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THIS AFTN INTO
EVENING...THEN CLEARING OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL GUST TO
AROUND 20 KT DURING THE DAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS
LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. WESTERLY
WIND GUSTS AROUND 20KT WED AND THU AFTERNOONS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM MONDAY...WEST WINDS PREVAIL ON THE COASTAL WATERS AND
SOUNDS...WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS AT HATTERAS COAST
GUARD STATION AND DIAMOND SHOALS. SEAS CONTINUE QUITE ROUGH WITH
9-12 FEET OFFSHORE. PER LATEST 3-KM HRRR AND RAP MODELS...EXPECT
WINDS TO INCREASE A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS TREND IN THE FORECAST. WAVE MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE UNDERDONE BY 3-5 FT WITH LARGE DANGEROUS SWELL OVER
NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS...AND RELIED ON MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO FCST.
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BUT INCREASING WESTERLY
WINDS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED SEAS PERSISTING FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUE...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND
ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE WATERS FRI WITH WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING...WITH
WINDS LESS THAN 15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT. A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT AND
SEAS BUILDING TO 5-8FT. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 950 AM TUESDAY...LINGERING VERY LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED
WITH YESTERDAYS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
OUTER BANKS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SWELLS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE HIGH TIDES THIS MORNING WILL LEAD TO OCEAN OVERWASH AND
BEACH EROSION ESPECIALLY ALONG HATTERAS ISLAND. PORTIONS OF
HIGHWAY 12 IN THE USUAL VULNERABLE LOCATIONS COULD BECOME WATER
COVERED AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ104.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
528 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
AT 3 AM...THE AREA REMAINS IN A MODERATE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A 997 MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON AND A 1028 MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER DEVILS LAKE NORTH DAKOTA. THIS SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS PRODUCING SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THESE WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN IN
THESE RANGES THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO WEAKEN. WITH MUCH OF THE SNOW ALREADY
SETTLED AND NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ANTICIPATED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...EXPECT ONLY PATCHY TO A
FEW AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FOR MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE MESO MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN
WISCONSIN. IN ADDITION...THE 950 TO 900 MB LAPSE RATES WILL CLIMB
ABOUT 8 C/KM EAST OF AN EAU CLAIRE TO LANCASTER LINE IN WESTERN
WISCONSIN. FINALLY THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT SNOW IN
THIS AREA. DUE TO THIS INCREASED THE SNOW CHANCES UP INTO THE
CHANCE RANGE /30 TO 40 PERCENT/. IF THIS SIGNAL CONTINUES...THESE
CHANCES OF SNOW WILL HAVE TO RAISED FURTHER. ADDITIONAL SNOW
TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO MAYBE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
SNOW.
FOR LATE TONIGHT...WIND CHILLS WILL FALL INTO THE 15 TO 25 BELOW
RANGE. THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS ARE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 IN WESTERN
WISCONSIN. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS FOR
LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE 09.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE ON WHERE THE TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE LOCATED ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ARCTIC HIGH. THE GEM AND GFS CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF AND NAM KEEP
THIS SNOW BAND WELL WEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. CURRENTLY THINKING
THAT THE LATTER MODELS PROBABLY HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS
SYSTEM...SO LEANED MORE TOWARD THE NAM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC
COLD FRONT. WEAK TO MODERATE 275K ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. IN ADDITION...THERE IS
WEAK 900 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS. MOISTURE LOOKS VERY LIMITED
WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OF ONLY 1 TO 2 G/KG. AT MOST THIS SNOW
BAND LOOKS TO PRODUCE AROUND A HALF INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA... NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT IS THE COLDEST 850 MB AIR THE
WINTER. FORTUNATELY...THE COLDEST 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO...QUEBEC...AND NEW ENGLAND WHERE 925
MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AS LOW -36C. ACCORDING TO NAEFS...THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE CLOSER TO HOME...WE ARE LOOKING AT 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ANOMALIES OF 1 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
ON SATURDAY. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THERE MAY BE SOME COLD
HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT COULD BE TIED OR BROKEN. OUR CURRENT
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE GRID CURRENTLY HAS MUCH OF THE AREA
NOT EVEN REACHING 10F. THE RECORD COLD HIGH FOR ROCHESTER ON
SATURDAY IS 5F SET BACK IN 1970 AND IT IS 0F IN 1905 FOR LA CROSSE
WISCONSIN. IN ADDITION TO THIS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WIND CHILLS ON
SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 30 BELOW. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE QUESTIONS ON HOW
FAST THE 1040 MB ARCTIC HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. THE
LATEST ECMWF ENSEMBLE HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR ROCHESTER RANGING
FROM 12 TO 40 FOR SUNDAY. MEANWHILE THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS
JUST A DEGREE BELOW ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN. AS A RESULT...THE
CONFIDENCE OF TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD ARE CURRENTLY
LOWER THAN NORMAL. WHILE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS IN
QUESTION...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL BE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE AREA...BUT
THE TOTALS ARE HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME. THIS IS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE THERMAL STRUCTURE OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND HOW
MUCH MOISTURE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
AN AREA OF VFR CONDITIONS HAS ROTATED DOWN AND ACROSS BOTH TAF
SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE 09.09Z RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS AND WOULD SUGGEST CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR UNTIL LATE
THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO COME DOWN OUT OF CANADA AND MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. A DEEPER MOISTURE FIELD AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE MVFR CEILINGS TO REFORM OVER BOTH SITES
AND THEN REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. KRST
COULD SEE THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. IF THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FOR KLSE
IT WILL BE RIGHT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AND THIS CAN BE
ADDRESSED WITH THE NEXT SET OF FORECASTS. THE WINDS HAVE
TEMPORARILY SETTLED DOWN A LITTLE BIT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
GUSTY AGAIN BY MID MORNING AS THERE ARE STILL GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN PLACE ONCE A LITTLE MIXING GETS GOING TO TAP INTO THESE
HIGHER SPEEDS. THESE GUSTS SHOULD THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
THE MIXING GETS SHUT OFF BY THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
220 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...
334 AM CST
THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE FORECAST THEME OF LIGHT SNOW WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE SNOW
SHOWERS REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATION. ATTENTION ALSO IS ON PORTER COUNTY INDIANA WHERE
TEMPORARY BUT MORE APPRECIABLE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AT TIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME NO HEADLINES ARE
PLANNED TO BE ISSUED AS ONLY MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME AND SOME UNCERTAINTY ON DURATION. AN AREA WIDE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT WAS AGAIN ISSUED AND ONE MORE FOCUSED FOR PORTER
COUNTY. ALSO ON TRACK IS THE COLD WHICH LOOKS TO PROVIDE AREA WIDE
SUBZERO WIND CHILLS TO START WEDNESDAY MORNING AND PROBABLY
THURSDAY TOO.
THE IMPRESSIVELY AMPLIFIED TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA IS
EVER SO SLOWLY INCHING EASTWARD. WITH A VIGOROUS 150KT UPPER JET
ON ITS WESTERN EDGE...THERE REMAINS NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE DISTURBANCES AND THEIR LIFT
WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
HELP THE SNOW TO CONTINUE TODAY. THE LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL BRING SHARPLY REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND SWATHS OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. A
GENERAL WEST-TO-EAST FADE IN THIS SYNOPTIC ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND LITTLE IF AT ALL TODAY WITH MID TEENS TO MID 20S EXPECTED
FROM WEST TO EAST WITH WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH ADDING AN EXTRA CHILL
TO THE AIR.
AS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE LOW LEVELS...CHARACTERIZED BY 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING
TO -15C OR COLDER BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WILL HELP STRENGTHEN LAKE-
INDUCED INSTABILITY. MODIFIED RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS FOR MID 30S
SURFACE TEMPERATURES PROVIDE CAPE OF 50 J/KG MUCH OF TODAY. BOTH
OF THESE MODELS INDICATE TRANSIENT BUT STRONG LOW-LEVEL OMEGA INTO
PORTER COUNTY TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
TO BE SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED DUE TO A LACK OF A CONFLUENT
FOCUS...BUT STILL ENOUGH OF A DURATION TO PROVIDE 12-24 HOUR
SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 2-3 POSSIBLY 4 INCHES TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
THE HIGHER END IN NORTHEAST PORTER. THE BETTER SIGNAL FOR THE
CONFLUENT FLOW REMAINS JUST EAST OF OUR AREA WHERE ADVISORIES WILL
GO INTO EFFECT FROM ADJACENT NWS NORTHERN INDIANA DURING THE MID-
AFTERNOON.
THE STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW STILL IN PLACE TONIGHT SHOULD WARRANT
CLOUDS THOUGH SOME BREAKS COULD HAPPEN IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THE 4KM SPC WRF COLUMN CONDENSATE FIELD WHICH
OFTEN DOES WELL WITH CAA STRATOCU KEEPS CLOUDS AROUND A GOOD PART
OF THE NIGHT AS WELL...LENDING TO A LITTLE HIGHER CONFIDENCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL WITHIN THIS REGIME AND SINGLE DIGITS
ARE EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THE
CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD COVER DROPS QUITE A BIT WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH DO ANTICIPATE A GENERAL DIMINISHING TREND
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE A CHILLY ONE...WITH
SOME OUTLYING NEAR OR EVEN SUBZERO LOWS POSSIBLE.
SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY OUTSIDE OF SOME
CONTINUED LIGHTER LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN PORTER
COUNTY...ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE GRADUALLY
BACKING SO IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE MUCH.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
345 AM CST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
WINTER CONTINUES GOING FORWARD INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SHEARED SHORT WAVE DIVING OVER OR NEAR THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW.
MOST MODELS AND EVEN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE LIGHT QPF WITH
THIS. IT IS A FEW DAYS AWAY YET BUT IT HAS THE LOOK OF ONE OF
THOSE CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEMS THAT COULD PRODUCE A NARROW SWATH OF
POSSIBLY A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW GIVEN FAVORABLE THERMAL PROFILES
FOR SNOW GROWTH AND LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WINDS.
THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET AGAIN BUCKLES BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WITH AN ARCTIC HIGH OF 1040MB + EXPECTED
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SYNOPTIC
REGIME CONTINUES TO RESEMBLE ONE THAT COULD SUPPORT MESOSCALE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW...POSSIBLY EVEN HEAVY...WITH CONVERGENCE POINTED
TOWARD SOME OF THE CWA. AT THIS TIME THAT LOOKS TO BE MORE
NORTHWEST INDIANA. AGAIN FAR TOO EARLY FOR SOMETHING OF THAT SCALE
TO HAVE BIG CONFIDENCE IN...BUT DID INCREASE SNOW CHANCES IN FAR
NORTHWEST INDIANA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
EXPECT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THOUGH AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS EXPECT VARIABLE HIGH END MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOWER
CHANCES FOR IFR. RAP/HRRR MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT AN UPTICK IN
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING SO ADJUSTED TIMING OF THE TEMPO TO FIT THE
BEST WINDOW OF IFR OR NEAR IFR CONDITIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A DEEP SATURATED LAYER WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE MEANING THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRIMED TO PRODUCE DECENT SIZED DENDRITES...
HOWEVER THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT SOURCE OF FORCING. THAT
SAID...PROBABLY WONT TAKE MUCH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SNOW THIS
EVENING AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING WITH MODEST MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS AS FAR SOUTH AS CHICAGOLAND. KEYING IN ON THIS TO
TIME THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONDITIONS TO LOWER AGAIN...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE VERY
BENIGN FORCING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT MUCH OF THE TIME.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
218 PM CST
A MODERATELY STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT PERSISTS
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN BETWEEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. LOW
END GALES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF
THE LAKE THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF COLD
TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAKE AND 30 TO 35 KT WINDS WILL RESULT IN
SOME FREEZING SPRAY AS WELL. WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH AND BACK TO
WEST-NORTHWEST THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE NOSES CLOSER AND THE GRADIENT
RELAXES...HOWEVER ANOTHER LOW IS PROGGED TO FORM OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND WILL PUSH ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE BACK
TO AT LEAST 30 KT AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME GALES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY...ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY AS BITTERLY COLD AIR
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 AM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1145 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...
334 AM CST
THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE FORECAST THEME OF LIGHT SNOW WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE SNOW
SHOWERS REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATION. ATTENTION ALSO IS ON PORTER COUNTY INDIANA WHERE
TEMPORARY BUT MORE APPRECIABLE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AT TIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME NO HEADLINES ARE
PLANNED TO BE ISSUED AS ONLY MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME AND SOME UNCERTAINTY ON DURATION. AN AREA WIDE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT WAS AGAIN ISSUED AND ONE MORE FOCUSED FOR PORTER
COUNTY. ALSO ON TRACK IS THE COLD WHICH LOOKS TO PROVIDE AREA WIDE
SUBZERO WIND CHILLS TO START WEDNESDAY MORNING AND PROBABLY
THURSDAY TOO.
THE IMPRESSIVELY AMPLIFIED TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA IS
EVER SO SLOWLY INCHING EASTWARD. WITH A VIGOROUS 150KT UPPER JET
ON ITS WESTERN EDGE...THERE REMAINS NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE DISTURBANCES AND THEIR LIFT
WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
HELP THE SNOW TO CONTINUE TODAY. THE LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL BRING SHARPLY REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND SWATHS OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. A
GENERAL WEST-TO-EAST FADE IN THIS SYNOPTIC ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND LITTLE IF AT ALL TODAY WITH MID TEENS TO MID 20S EXPECTED
FROM WEST TO EAST WITH WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH ADDING AN EXTRA CHILL
TO THE AIR.
AS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...THE COLD ADVECTION
IN THE LOW LEVELS...CHARACTERIZED BY 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING
TO -15C OR COLDER BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WILL HELP STRENGTHEN LAKE-
INDUCED INSTABILITY. MODIFIED RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS FOR MID 30S
SURFACE TEMPERATURES PROVIDE CAPE OF 50 J/KG MUCH OF TODAY. BOTH
OF THESE MODELS INDICATE TRANSIENT BUT STRONG LOW-LEVEL OMEGA INTO
PORTER COUNTY TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
TO BE SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED DUE TO A LACK OF A CONFLUENT
FOCUS...BUT STILL ENOUGH OF A DURATION TO PROVIDE 12-24 HOUR
SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 2-3 POSSIBLY 4 INCHES TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
THE HIGHER END IN NORTHEAST PORTER. THE BETTER SIGNAL FOR THE
CONFLUENT FLOW REMAINS JUST EAST OF OUR AREA WHERE ADVISORIES WILL
GO INTO EFFECT FROM ADJACENT NWS NORTHERN INDIANA DURING THE MID-
AFTERNOON.
THE STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW STILL IN PLACE TONIGHT SHOULD WARRANT
CLOUDS THOUGH SOME BREAKS COULD HAPPEN IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THE 4KM SPC WRF COLUMN CONDENSATE FIELD WHICH
OFTEN DOES WELL WITH CAA STRATOCU KEEPS CLOUDS AROUND A GOOD PART
OF THE NIGHT AS WELL...LENDING TO A LITTLE HIGHER CONFIDENCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL WITHIN THIS REGIME AND SINGLE DIGITS
ARE EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THE
CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD COVER DROPS QUITE A BIT WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH DO ANTICIPATE A GENERAL DIMINISHING TREND
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE A CHILLY ONE...WITH
SOME OUTLYING NEAR OR EVEN SUBZERO LOWS POSSIBLE.
SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY OUTSIDE OF SOME
CONTINUED LIGHTER LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN PORTER
COUNTY...ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE GRADUALLY
BACKING SO IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE MUCH.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
345 AM CST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
WINTER CONTINUES GOING FORWARD INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SHEARED SHORT WAVE DIVING OVER OR NEAR THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW.
MOST MODELS AND EVEN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE LIGHT QPF WITH
THIS. IT IS A FEW DAYS AWAY YET BUT IT HAS THE LOOK OF ONE OF
THOSE CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEMS THAT COULD PRODUCE A NARROW SWATH OF
POSSIBLY A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW GIVEN FAVORABLE THERMAL PROFILES
FOR SNOW GROWTH AND LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WINDS.
THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET AGAIN BUCKLES BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WITH AN ARCTIC HIGH OF 1040MB + EXPECTED
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SYNOPTIC
REGIME CONTINUES TO RESEMBLE ONE THAT COULD SUPPORT MESOSCALE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW...POSSIBLY EVEN HEAVY...WITH CONVERGENCE POINTED
TOWARD SOME OF THE CWA. AT THIS TIME THAT LOOKS TO BE MORE
NORTHWEST INDIANA. AGAIN FAR TOO EARLY FOR SOMETHING OF THAT SCALE
TO HAVE BIG CONFIDENCE IN...BUT DID INCREASE SNOW CHANCES IN FAR
NORTHWEST INDIANA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
EXPECT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THOUGH AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS EXPECT VARIABLE HIGH END MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOWER
CHANCES FOR IFR. RAP/HRRR MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT AN UPTICK IN
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING SO ADJUSTED TIMING OF THE TEMPO TO FIT THE
BEST WINDOW OF IFR OR NEAR IFR CONDITIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A DEEP SATURATED LAYER WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE MEANING THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRIMED TO PRODUCE DECENT SIZED DENDRITES...
HOWEVER THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT SOURCE OF FORCING. THAT
SAID...PROBABLY WONT TAKE MUCH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SNOW THIS
EVENING AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING WITH MODEST MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS AS FAR SOUTH AS CHICAGOLAND. KEYING IN ON THIS TO
TIME THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONDITIONS TO LOWER AGAIN...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE VERY
BENIGN FORCING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT MUCH OF THE TIME.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
258 AM CST
ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE FROM
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS JUST
HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE THE WARNING...BUT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ANY
GALES WILL BE ON THE LOW END OF THE SPECTRUM. NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH GOES THROUGH THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE IL NEARSHORE WATERS...AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS DUE TO HAZARDOUS WINDS AND
WAVES.
A WEAK LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO REACHES NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...AND
THEN MERGES WITH A DEEPER LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD SOUTH
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO LOW END GALES THIS MORNING AND PERSIST
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
LAKE. OCCASIONAL GALES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
LAKE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS TO HOIST A GALE WARNING
FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE LAKE.
THE HIGH PASSES SOUTH OF THE LAKE THURSDAY EVENING AND WINDS WILL
BECOME WEST 15-25 KT. A WEAK LOW FORMS OVER ONTARIO THURSDAY
EVENING AND REACHES NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME A
LARGE HIGH SPREADS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS INCREASING TO AT LEAST 30 KT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE LAKE
SATURDAY EVENING AND CONTINUES EAST TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOME SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH SUNDAY.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 AM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
329 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DEALT WITH
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE WEST.
LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER RUC FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. TIMING OF
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE
BRINGING IN CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. THINK THERE WILL BE A
LONG ENOUGH WINDOW OVER THE NORTHEAST TO ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET
BELOW ZERO...EVEN WITH THE WINDS REMAINING AROUND 5-10 KNOTS. MAY
SEE SEE A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND ACROSS THE WEST BUT TIMING OF THE
CLOUD COVER TO ENTER THE WEST LOOKS MORE LIKELY BY 09Z.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE
FLOW EVERY 36-48 HRS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS FLOW WILL FINALLY BREAK OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE HUDSON BAY
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS ALLOWING A GRADUAL TRANSITION
TO MORE WESTERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES (POSSIBLY MUCH
WARMER) TOWARDS NEXT TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY IN THE 7-10 DAY
RANGE.
THE FIRST SHORT WAVE ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING LIGHT
SNOW TO MUCH OF THE AREA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO ONE AND
ONE HALF INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WITH ABOVE CLIMO SNOW RATIOS
A DEEP DENDRITIC LAYER AND A PERIOD OF MODERATE FORCING. THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AND ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE INCH
EXPECTED. FORTUNATELY THE WIND DURING THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO
BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. BREEZIER CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT COULD CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW PROBLEMS IN REGARDS TO CAUSING
SNOW COVERED ROADS BUT CERTAINLY NOT A HEADLINE CRITERIA EVENT.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRANSITION FLOW.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN THE TWO
PREDECESSORS...THEREFORE MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR 2+ INCHES OF
SNOW. THE TRANSITION TO SFC SOUTHERLY FLOW BY MONDAY WILL BRING
WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY OTHERWISE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE NEAR TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...09/18Z
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
MVFR STRATUS LOOKS TO AFFECT ALO/OTM OVER NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH
SOME FLURRIES FALLING AT OTM. MCW REPORTING FALSE CEILINGS AS MUCH
OF THE WEB CAMERAS AND IDOT PLOW CAMERAS...AND PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
REMAINS CLEAR. SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...MIGHT SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR VIS BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AND LEFT OUT MENTION ATTM AT MCW. OTHERWISE...WINDS FINALLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE STATE. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ENTIRE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT AT
OTM/ALO AS MENTIONED ABOVE.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
304 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
18Z SFC DATA HAS A SEASONABLY STRONG LOW OVER LAKE HURON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. DEW
POINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S RAN FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS MUCH OF WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS WITH MORE ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN IOWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
BASED ON RADAR AND RAP MODEL TRENDS...THE FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
RATHER RAPID DISSIPATION SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
TONIGHT...PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT
THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF CLEAR SKIES BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE
BACK INTO THE AREA. THE PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW
ZERO.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN REASONABLY BRISK DURING THE EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING LATE. AS A RESULT...WIND CHILLS WILL DROP
WELL BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. THE EXTREME NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA
MAY SEE WIND CHILLS APPROACH 20 BELOW ZERO PRIOR TO SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.
QUIET AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS CLOUDS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING CLIPPER
TYPE SYSTEM. BY MID WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF A
VINTON IOWA...TO MACOMB ILLINOIS LINE WILL SEE LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP OR
MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE DRY ATMOSPHERE OVER THE AREA MAY INITIALLY
LIMIT ANY SNOW TO FLURRIES BUT LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE OCCURRING BY
LATE AFTERNOON.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BY SUNSET WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNDER AN
INCH OF ACCUMULATION.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM REMAINS TO BE A SERIES OF
CLIPPERS THAT ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA ALONG WITH A 1040+
HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND. SNOWFALL TOTALS LOOK TO BE LIGHT WITH
THESE SYSTEMS...HOWEVER...DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
EXPECT FORECASTS TO VARY GREATLY LEADING INTO THE EVENT. WIND
CHILLS ON FRIDAY NIGHT STILL APPEAR TO REACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY
LEVELS.
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...A CLIPPER SHOULD BE WELL PAST THE
CWA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. DETERMINISTIC GRIDDED AND SPECTRAL
MODELS SUGGEST THAT QPF WILL BE OVER FOR MUCH OF THE CWA BY 00Z
THURSDAY. HIRES CAMS KEEP ALL OF THE PRECIP SOUTH OF THE CWA AND
RESULT IN NO SNOW AFTER 00Z THU. AS SUCH...DECIDED TO NOT ADD ANY
QPF OR SNOW ACCUM DURING THIS PERIOD. DECIDED TO ERR ON THE SIDE
OF CAUTION AND INCLUDE A SCHC OF SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD.
THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE A QUIET DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO TRANSVERSE THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING. THE GEM APPEARS TO SEND THIS CLIPPER WELL INTO THE
CWA WITH COVERAGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS IS AT ODDS WITH THE
REST OF THE MODELS. AS SUCH...WILL GO WITH SCHC TO CHC POPS AT THIS
TIME. THIS FORECAST WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS MODELS MOVE BACK AND
FORTH. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE AREA WILL
SEE LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IF THE GEM VERIFIES.
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY A STRONG 1040+ HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL LEAD TO COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND A CHANCE FOR
WIND CHILL HEADLINES POSSIBLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AM. THE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY.
ON SUNDAY A STRONG WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE N CONUS.
GUIDANCE PREDICTS QPF ACROSS THE AREA. WARMER AIR WILL LIKELY BE
ADVECTED NORTH BY THIS WAVE. AT THIS TIME THERE ARE TOO MANY
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS TO SAY ANYTHING MORE THAN THERE WILL
BE A CHC FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
MVFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
WITH POCKETS OF VFR CONDITIONS THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 02Z/10 THAT MAY
IMPACT A TAF SITE. IF A SNOW SHOWER IMPACTS A TAF SITE A VERY BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE STRONGER SHOWERS.
AFT 00Z/10 CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
527 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER INTO LATE WEEK WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
530PM UPDATE...UPDATED POPS AND SNOW OVERNIGHT...FOCUSING MAINLY
ON THE AREA OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN OHIO. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ROTATING AROUND
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW...HAS PROVIDED ENOUGH LIFT TO GET THE
ACTIVITY GOING. THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF SHEAR IN THE LAYER AND THE
REAL COLD AIR IS STILL WELL TO THE WEST...HOWEVER EXPECT TO SEE AN
AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. HIGHEST POPS AND SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE I-80 COUNTIES.
HAVE ALSO KEPT THE HIGH POPS IN THE RIDGE COUNTIES AS A STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW WILL CREATE A GOOD UPSLOPE SETUP AND COLDER AIR
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL RUN DIRECTLY INTO THE
RIDGE TOPS. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED WITH A BLEND
OF THE LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BAND OF BETTER RETURNS ON RADAR NOW PUSHING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN RIDGES AND BEGINNING TO WANE. ELSEWHERE PATCHY LIGHT SNOW
WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF UNTIL A SHORTWAVE SLIDING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.
NARROW BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE NOW INTO
NORTHEAST OHIO AND WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...AS STILL
SHOWN BY LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS. WHILE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST...ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR AT
LEAST AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.
BEHIND THIS COLD ADVECTION WILL INCREASE WITH ENOUGH LAKE ENHANCED
FLOW FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
INTO THE RIDGES AND TOWARD THE I-80 CORRIDOR. NO CHANGES TO
CURRENT ADVISORIES. TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF MODEL MOS.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION. MEAN FLOW WILL REMAIN WESTERLY BUT WILL WAVER AT
TIMES...KEEPING BEST LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL WELL NORTH BUT WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT. SNOWFALL LOOKS TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND NO
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. COLDER AIR WILL AGAIN BE WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A MINIMAL RECOVERY FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN COLD ADVECTION INTO THURSDAY
UNTIL A SMALL BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY PERIOD
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE AS EASTERN
TROUGH CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FRIDAY WILL
DELIVER EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ALLOWED A MODEL BLEND TO BE
USED.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE ARCTIC AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. WILL CONTINUE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST DROPPING NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS TO ZERO OR BELOW.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF DRY PERIOD ON SUNDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW EXCEPT FOR SOME RAIN
POSSIBLY MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY BEFORE NORTHWEST FLOW ONCE AGAIN ALLOWS FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS IT SEEMS
VISIBILITIES ARE BEING DETERMINED MORE BY FOG/MIST THAN BY SNOW
SHOWER INTENSITY. GENERAL TREND IS THAT MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS ARE MOVING EAST OF MOST TERMINALS...BUT VISIBILITIES
REMAIN IFR. HAVE GONE SOMEWHAT PESSIMISTIC WITH THE TAFS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...KEEPING KPIT AND TERMINALS FARTHER SOUTH IN
IFR VISIBILITIES INTO THE EVENING. THINK THERE WILL BE A GENERAL
IMPROVING TREND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS INDICATE ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW
COULD PUSH THROUGH AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY...WHICH MIGHT BRING
ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF IFR CONDITIONS TO ALL SITES. DID NOT HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD THIS SNOW INTO THE TAFS AS OF THE 18Z
TAFS. AS WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY...FETCH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO PICK UP AT FKL/DUJ OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD BRING SNOW TOWARDS OTHER TERMINALS BY
LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER COLD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE DRY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049-
050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021-
029-031-073-075.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
WVZ510>514.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
309 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER INTO LATE WEEK WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BAND OF BETTER RETURNS ON RADAR NOW PUSHING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN RIDGES AND BEGINNING TO WANE. ELSEWHERE PATCHY LIGHT
SNOW WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF UNTIL A SHORTWAVE SLIDING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.
NARROW BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE NOW INTO
NORTHEAST OHIO AND WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...AS STILL
SHOWN BY LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS. WHILE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST...ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR AT
LEAST AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.
BEHIND THIS COLD ADVECTION WILL INCREASE WITH ENOUGH LAKE ENHANCED
FLOW FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
INTO THE RIDGES AND TOWARD THE I-80 CORRIDOR. NO CHANGES TO
CURRENT ADVISORIES. TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF MODEL MOS.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION. MEAN FLOW WILL REMAIN WESTERLY BUT WILL WAVER AT
TIMES...KEEPING BEST LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL WELL NORTH BUT WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT. SNOWFALL LOOKS TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND NO
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. COLDER AIR WILL AGAIN BE WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A MINIMAL RECOVERY FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN COLD ADVECTION INTO THURSDAY
UNTIL A SMALL BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY PERIOD
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE AS EASTERN
TROUGH CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FRIDAY WILL
DELIVER EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ALLOWED A MODEL BLEND TO BE
USED.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE ARCTIC AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. WILL CONTINUE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST DROPPING NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS TO ZERO OR BELOW.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF DRY PERIOD ON SUNDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW EXCEPT FOR SOME RAIN
POSSIBLY MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY BEFORE NORTHWEST FLOW ONCE AGAIN ALLOWS FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS IT SEEMS
VISIBILITIES ARE BEING DETERMINED MORE BY FOG/MIST THAN BY SNOW
SHOWER INTENSITY. GENERAL TREND IS THAT MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS ARE MOVING EAST OF MOST TERMINALS...BUT VISIBILITIES
REMAIN IFR. HAVE GONE SOMEWHAT PESSIMISTIC WITH THE TAFS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...KEEPING KPIT AND TERMINALS FARTHER SOUTH IN
IFR VISIBILITIES INTO THE EVENING. THINK THERE WILL BE A GENERAL
IMPROVING TREND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS INDICATE ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW
COULD PUSH THROUGH AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY...WHICH MIGHT BRING
ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF IFR CONDITIONS TO ALL SITES. DID NOT HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD THIS SNOW INTO THE TAFS AS OF THE 18Z
TAFS. AS WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY...FETCH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO PICK UP AT FKL/DUJ OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD BRING SNOW TOWARDS OTHER TERMINALS BY
LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER COLD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE DRY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049-
050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021-
029-031-073-075.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
WVZ510>514.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
110 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BAND OF BETTER RETURNS ON RADAR NOW PUSHING NORTHEAST AND EAST OF
KPIT AND BEGINNING TO WANE. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONTINUE
UNDER THIS AREA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE PATCHY LIGHT
SNOW WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF UNTIL A SHORTWAVE SLIDING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.
NARROW BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE NOW EXITING LAKE
ERIE AND WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS
SHOWN BY LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS. WHILE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT
LEAVES THE LAKE...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO
ACCOUNT FOR AT LEAST AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THIS COLD ADVECTION WILL INCREASE WITH
ENOUGH LAKE ENHANCED FLOW FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY INTO THE RIDGES. NO CHANGES TO ADVISORIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
H500 TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST EARLY ON WEDNESDAY AS CLOSED LOW OPENS
UP. NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE DURING THE DAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
COLD ADVECTION. INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP A BIT AS COMPARED TO TODAY
AND OVERALL MOISTURE LEVEL IS LOWER...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE IS
PRESENT IN DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE TO PROMOTE ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR TWO...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES.
COLD ADVECTION SLOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOISTURE BECOMES MORE
SHALLOW WITH TIME...WHICH WILL SLOW ACCUMULATION A BIT. ANOTHER
INCH OR SO IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...LESS TO THE
WEST. H850 THERMAL TROUGH ARRIVES AND CROSSES ON THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL HELP TO DIMINISH COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. ONLY A FEW SHSN
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ALONG THE RIDGES AND NORTH OF I-80 BY
EVENING...WITH A DRY WINDOW EXPECTED AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP FURTHER BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE HERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS...LASTING INTO SATURDAY. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGE FOR NOW. THE MAIN STORY HERE WILL BE THE POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO
FALL TO -25C OR EVEN A BIT COLDER BY 00Z SUNDAY. BELOW ZERO MIN
TEMPS ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY IF
SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE.
A DRY AND COLD SUNDAY IS EXPECTED AS THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY AS THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH LOOSENS ITS GRIP...BUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RETURN AS WELL WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WAS USED AS A BASIS FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS IT SEEMS
VISIBILITIES ARE BEING DETERMINED MORE BY FOG/MIST THAN BY SNOW
SHOWER INTENSITY. GENERAL TREND IS THAT MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS ARE MOVING EAST OF MOST TERMINALS...BUT VISIBILITIES
REMAIN IFR. HAVE GONE SOMEWHAT PESSIMISTIC WITH THE TAFS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...KEEPING KPIT AND TERMINALS FARTHER SOUTH IN
IFR VISIBILITIES INTO THE EVENING. THINK THERE WILL BE A GENERAL
IMPROVING TREND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS INDICATE ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW
COULD PUSH THROUGH AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY...WHICH MIGHT BRING
ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF IFR CONDITIONS TO ALL SITES. DID NOT HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD THIS SNOW INTO THE TAFS AS OF THE 18Z
TAFS. AS WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY...FETCH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO PICK UP AT FKL/DUJ OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD BRING SNOW TOWARDS OTHER TERMINALS BY
LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER COLD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049-
050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021-
029-031-073-075.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
WVZ510>514.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1149 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A
PROMINENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIGE OVER THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SE CONUS. AT THE
SFC...STRONG NRLY FLOW PREVAILED THROUGH THE WRN LAKES BTWN A RIDGE
OVER THE PLAINS AND A LOW NEAR THE SRN END OF LAKE HURON. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -22C AND
THE PRESENCE OF ABUNDANTY 850-500 MB MOISTURE SUPPORTED MODERATE TO
HEAVY LES INTO THE WRN CWA NEAR IWD WHERE THE LOW LEVEL CONV WAS
STRONGEST. LES ALSO CONTINUED OVER THE REST OF NRN UPPER MI BUT WAS
NOT AS HEAVY.
TODAY...THE MODELS WERE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS DROPPING TO AROUND 4K FT. SO...WITH DIMINISHING
SNOWFALL RATES EXPECTED...THE LES WARNING/ADVISORIES EXPIRATION OF
21Z LOOKS ON TRACK AFTER ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES.
HOWEVER...LIGHTER LES WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. EVEN WITH LESS
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONV INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI...EXPECT LES WILL
INCREASE TODAY WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE.
IN ADDITION...THE GUSTY N WINDS ALONG THE LAKE WILL PRODUCE
CONSIDERABLE BLSN. AN ADVY WAS ISSUED FOR MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTIES
WHICH WILL EXTEND INTO WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NORMAL WITH HIGHS
FROM 10 TO 15 OVER THE WEST HALF TO THE LOW 20S AND EAST.
TONIGHT...A WEAK SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE NRN LAKES FROM NW ONTARIO
ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL HELP BOOST SNOWFALL
RATES...MAINLY OVER THE CNTRL AREAS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LONGER
FETCHAND WHERE UPSTREAM LOW LEVEL DRYING WILL HAVE LESS INFLUENCE.
LAND BREEZES AND SLIGHTLY VEERING WINDS MAY HELP INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONV INTO EASTERN MARQUETTE AND WRN ALGER COUNTIES WHERE ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THE DGZ
LOWERING CLOSER TO THE SFC AND GREATER DRYING...EXPECT MAINLY 1 TO 4
INCH AMOUNTS OVER THE WEST. EVEN WITH THE VERY COLD AIRMASS OVER THE
AREA...THE LAKE INFLUENCE WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 0 TO 5F RANGE WEST
AND 5 TO 10 EAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE BROAD 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WEST.
THE SHORTWAVE THAT SLID THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P. WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SLIDING
EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO EXIT TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF
THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER.
THE MORE FOCUSED SNOW WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN U.P. AS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LINGER THERE THE LONGEST AND THAT AREA WILL BE IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SHORTWAVE AXIS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
CHILLY AIR AT 850MB IN THE -20C TO -23C RANGE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THE MOISTURE AND
CONVECTIVE LAYER WERE DEEPER IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. INVERSION HEIGHTS
WILL BE AROUND 6-8KFT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...HOWEVER...THE BETTER MOISTURE IS ONLY PROGGED TO BE IN
PLACE THROUGH ABOUT 5-6KFT. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL CANADA. WILL STILL
SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH DIMINISHED RATE...FOR
MORE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EAST WITH THE INCREASED FETCH.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER
TO THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE
INFLECTION POINT BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE TO THE
WEST. THE GFS/EC ARE SHOWING A 500MB CLOSED LOW SLIDING ACROSS
HUDSON BAY THURSDAY NIGHT TO CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THIS HAPPENS...EXPECT A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TO ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA WITH INCREASED MOISTURE WRAPPING THROUGH THE EAST
HALF OF THE CWA. THE MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO SLIDE
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL FOR NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED AREAS.
AGAIN...WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE SLIDING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE
U.P. PLACED THE LIKELY POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THOSE AREAS NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR MOVING IN WILL PRESS THE
FAVORED DGZ DOWN TO THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IT WILL
BE FAIRLY SHALLOW TOO. THIS WOULD KEEP SNOWFLAKE SIZE FAIRLY SMALL
AND SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS A BIT LOWER. THE THINGS HINTING TOWARD
HEAVIER SNOWFALL INTENSITY/ MORE PERSISTENT SNOW OVER THE EAST IS
THE INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO JUMP UP TO NEAR 8KFT OR SO ALONG
WITH INCREASED FORCING IN THAT LAYER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GFS AND EC ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT ON
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SLIDING INTO THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE MOVING FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EASTWARD INTO THE CWA. THIS...ALONG WITH DRIER AIR AND THE SLOW
APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...SHOULD HELP TO DIMINISH THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THIS WORKS OUT
AND THE SURFACE RIDGE IS OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF SUBSTANTIALLY
ACROSS THE CWA WITH LOWS POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS DIVERGE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS
THE GFS TRIES TO BRING A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE EC KEEPS A
SURFACE RIDGE...DRIER AIR AND UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGE IN THE AREA
THROUGH MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THIS POINT WENT WITH A
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS GIVING ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
A CYCLONIC NNW FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL PERSIST THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
WITH DEEP MOISTURE ALSO LINGERING...EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO
PREDOMINATE AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN LAKE HURON WILL EXIT THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED N WINDS TO 20
TO 30KNOTS WITH AND GALES TO 35KTS OVER N CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
E HALF. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH THE HEAVIEST FREEZING
SPRAY INTO WED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN
ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE N PLAINS TUESDAY SLOWLY GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA
OF STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION BY THE START OF THE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ006.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ001-003.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ002-009.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ005.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY
FOR LSZ162-263>266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
1005 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
.UPDATE...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SNOW SHOWERS ARE OCCURING JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...BUT EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO REMAIN TO THE
NORTHEAST AND SHIFT EVEN FURTHER AWAY BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE
WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY AND THERE IS A WIND ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL 6PM FOR WINDS 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MIN RH`S FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID 20 PERCENT RANGE COMBINING WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE LIMITED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE
WEST AND SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS HAS ALREADY BEEN HIGHLIGHTED
IN THE HWO AND GRAPHICASTS. MADE A FEW UPDATES TO TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS...BUT OTHER THAN THAT THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK./15/
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WV IMAGERY THIS
MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW BROAD TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY WITH LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WEST. IR IMAGERY SHOWING
INTERMEDIATE CLOUD DECK PERSISTING OVER NE SECTIONS. EXPECT THE CLOUD
DECK TO SPREAD BACK OUT TO THE SW SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNRISE...BUT NOT AS
EXPANSIVE AS YESTERDAY.
SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH WILL SUPPORT A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. GFS BUFR DATA SHOWING WINDS IN THE
MIXED LAYER AVERAGING AROUND 25 KNOTS. THE HRRR IS PICKING UP ON
THIS SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS AND SLIGHTLY LESS TO THE SOUTH.
DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE TEENS OVER THE SW QUARTER ALONG WITH 20 TO
30 MPH WINDS WILL PROMOTE A LIMITED FIRE DANGER RISK AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE THIS ALONG WITH THE WIND RISK IN THE HWO THIS
MORNING.
MID LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER COOL
DAY TODAY AND COLD NIGHT TONIGHT...BUT TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
HEADING INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. MID LEVEL TROF/SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EAST WEDNESDAY LEADING TO WARMER LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS./26/
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...THE LONG TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST FORTUNATELY CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER SUBDUED
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A COUPLE OF REINFORCING DRY COLD
FRONTS WILL DROP SOUTH INTO AND THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE COURSE OF
THE DAY THURSDAY...AND AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. AGAIN NO
RAIN IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WITH THESE FRONTAL PASSAGES.
HOWEVER...AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTS...
AND INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ARE
EXPECTED.
YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD. INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...WILL AID IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES CURRENTLY
LOOKING TO FALL ON MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES COME TO AN END BEHIND THE
FRONT BY MONDAY EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. /19/
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NW
WIND WILL BE GUSTY TODAY WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL THEN SUBSIDE AFTER
SUNSET. /DL/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 48 26 51 36 / 1 3 0 0
MERIDIAN 46 22 50 29 / 2 3 0 5
VICKSBURG 50 28 53 41 / 1 3 0 0
HATTIESBURG 51 27 53 33 / 3 3 0 4
NATCHEZ 52 29 54 42 / 1 3 0 0
GREENVILLE 47 27 49 36 / 2 3 0 0
GREENWOOD 45 23 47 33 / 4 3 0 1
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.
LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ074-075.
&&
$$
26/19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
345 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 345 PM CST Tue Feb 9 2016
Scattered flurries will continue for the rest of the afternoon under
the strato-cu deck. There is a clearing slot running down the west
side of the Mississippi River down almost to the Missouri River. The
clouds should continue to break up...although RAP and NAM soundings
show plenty of low level moisture trapped under an inversion into
the evening. Think most of the area should be clear of the low
clouds by 06Z...though south central Illinois counties will likely
stay under the clouds into Wednesday morning. Cold advection on
northwest flow will continue tonight into early Wednesday. Think
guidance temperatures in the single digits to mid teens look good
for lows tonight.
Focus turns to storm system developing on Wednesday. This look to
be a purely warm advection/frontogenesis snow. GFS, ECMWF and NAM
are showing some pretty high values of warm advection...between 30
to 50 degrees C/12hr. Forecast soundings show the moist layer
extending up into the dendritic growth zone with a decent amount of
lift through that layer as well. Looks like the snow will hold off
until mid-late afternoon. Due to the cold atmosphere and lift in
the best snow-growth zone, expect this will be a fluffy snow which
will accumulate pretty quickly...especially since highs will stay
well below freezing.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 345 PM CST Tue Feb 9 2016
Model guidance continues to improve its consensus for the track and
impact on the storm system expected to be ongoing early Wednesday
evening. The consensus track for max QPF stretches from north-
central MO thru the southwestern half of the STL metro area and
towards Cape Girardeau, MO. The WAA associated with this event is
expected to be intense and will probably result in rapid onset and
development which, again, should be ongoing by sundown Wednesday
evening. WAA remains intense thru much of Wednesday evening with
lift continuing well into the overnight hours, and for this reason,
will keep a mention of pcpn thru the nighttime hours with this
package. A fairly broad stripe of up to 1" of new snow accum is now
looking possible with this system, with near 2" potential in its
core/peak QPF track. If the WAA continues to be advertised as
intense with this system, these snow amounts, especially in the core
track, will probably need to be bumped up further due to high
anticipated snow to liquid ratios, when light winds are taken into
account from the surface RIDGE being over our region and a cold low-
mid level column.
Another system, of a more classic clipper variety, may impact our
region on late Thursday night into Friday, but the track for this
continues to be more to the northeast thru southern IA into central
IL, with only a modest mention of flurries or low PoPs justified at
this time.
Otherwise, a prolonged period of below average temps is forecast
from now thru the upcoming weekend, with very little moderation
expected in temps on Friday before the next shot of Arctic air
descends on our region for the weekend. Only by early next week
does the persistent RIDGE over the western CONUS begin to translate
eastward and could mean a return to average to even above average
temps at some point next week.
It is near this transition period Sunday-Monday that another system
is expected to impact our region. The GFS has finally come onboard
with the more consistent EC and GEM solutions but the nature of this
system is far from settled, with its initial onset possibly as early
as Saturday night and it may be completely done by Monday now. This
earlier timing would certainly favor an all snow event, with more
average temps for mid-February set to return on the heels of this
event. With the main storm still well over the north Pacific, there
is much that can go wrong or change and something to stay tuned for.
But as it stands now, could see widespread advisory criteria
snowfall.
TES
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1123 AM CST Tue Feb 9 2016
MVFR ceilings will prevail along and east of the Mississippi river
this afternoon and into the evening. Light snow showers or
flurries will occasionally lower the visibility to 3-5SM where
clouds persist this afternoon as well. Expect ceilings over much
of central Missouri and some of northeast Missouri to scatter out
over the next few hours. Guidance suggests that most of the area
will go VFR between 06Z and 10Z tonight, but low clouds will
probably hang around thorugh most of Wednesday morning over south
central Illinois. Northwest wind will continue...but should
diminish Wednesday morning.
Specifics for KSTL:
Surface obs are showing MVFR ceilings upstream all the way through
eastern Iowa. Should see the ceilings clear out tonight...though
timing is uncertain at this time. Given the time of year and
continued lift in the atmosphere due to low pressure aloft, I
leaned more pessimistic on the ceiling forecast. Northwest flow
will continue, but should diminish Wednesday morning. Current
thinking on Wedenesday`s potential snow is that the majority of it
will be southeast of the terminal...and not until late afternoon
or early evening so have left mention of additional snow out of
the terminal forecast for this issuance.
Carney
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
354 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE A BLAST OF VERY COLD AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STUBBORNLY HANGING ON
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE MID/UPPER 40S. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER
HAVE BEEN REACHING THE GROUND PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WILL
CARRY A SMALL POPS FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LATEST
3KM HRRR AND RAP MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE INCREASING WESTERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ADD ADDITIONAL CHILL TO THE AIR AS LOWS
TONIGHT DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S OVER MOST AREAS WITH LOW/MID 30S
OUTER BANKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE BETWEEN 750 AND 850 MB WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
YIELD PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ANOMALOUSLY LOW THICKNESSES SHOULD LEAD
TO A CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S WITH WEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN
COLDER.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ARCTIC
AIRMASS MOVING INTO EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY... HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO
RISE...BUT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN DOMINANT ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF. 850MB TEMPERATURE STILL REMAINS BELOW
AVERAGE...THEREFORE LEADING TO ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. THURSDAY NIGHT, EXPECT LOWS IN
THE LOW 20S.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN FROM
CANADA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO RE-AMPLIFYING THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF U.S. AND BRINGING EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
BOTH THE 09/12Z GFS AND 09/12Z ECMWF IS HAVING A BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER FOR FRIDAY INTO LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH MODELS SHOW A STRONG FORCING AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
WHILE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND SFC LOW DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST. THE SHORTWAVE COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SEE SOME -RA/-SN
SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS OF -RA/-SN MIX...THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOW 40S.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN COLDER/DRIER
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION.VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET BY
SUNDAY BTW -20C TO -15C WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE
1225-1240M RANGE. THIS WILL BRING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH HIGH STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY
HIGHS...UPPER 30S/LOW 40S AND SUNDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR BOTH SATURDAY SUNDAY
NIGHT.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES IN FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DEVELOPING A SFC LOW DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION 20% POP FOR RAIN...MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY... AS THE SFC LOW WILL BE CLOSE TO THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND MONDAY AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE 40S MONDAY AND LOW 50S TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE
IN THE 850-750 MB LAYER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED TO
OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CEILINGS IN THE 5000-8000 FOOT RANGE. THERE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT MIXING IN THE LOWER-LEVELS TO PRECLUDE ANY
FOG FORMATION TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW 5 TO 15 KNOTS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WITH ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD BEHIND IT. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FOR THURSDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.../
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...VERY ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE WITH 7 TO 12 FOOT
SEAS COMBINED WITH 14-15 SECOND SWELLS AT THE BUOYS. THE LATEST
3KM HRRR AND RAP MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND PAMLICO SOUND TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. NO CHANGES TO THE
ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW...SEAS SHOULD
SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUES...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND
ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALL THE COASTAL
WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. THERE WILL BE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS WINDS
AND SEAS SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS...WITH NW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS
AND 2 TO 4 FT. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS ANOTHER
STRONG COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS...EXPECT NW
WINDS 20-30 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY...LATEST PREDICTED WATER LEVEL DEPARTURES
DURING THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AND AGAIN AROUND MID-MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY ARE AROUND 3 FEET...DOWN A BIT FROM THIS MORNING`S TIDE
WHICH PRODUCED SOME MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. EARLIER
ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER BANKS TO RUN THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL OCEAN
OVERWASH AND BEACH EROSION THAT MAY OCCUR AROUND THE NEXT TWO HIGH
TIDES.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...CTC/BM
MARINE...CTC/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
228 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND ARE THICKER IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN TONIGHT,
BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FROM
FORMING IN THE SAME AREAS AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING
EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL OPEN UP THE DOOR FOR MORE
CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALSO A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THE FIRST FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. I SUSPECT THE THE MODELS, IN PARTICULAR THE NAM ARE TOO
BULLISH WITH THE QPF FIELDS ALONG THE COAST AND MAY ONLY BE THE
SACRIFICIAL LAMB. TYPICALLY WHEN FRONTS LIKE THIS RUN INTO A RIDGE
(ESPECIALLY ONE THAT IS RATHER STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR)
THEY TEND TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE, HENCE THE REASONING FOR KEEPING
POPS BELOW GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, THE OMEGA FIELDS ARE HIGHER AT THE
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD BE AN ARGUMENT FOR HIGHER
POPS. IT WILL BE INTERESTING WHAT THE HRRR SHOWS LATER THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT (CURRENT RUN ONLY GOES OUT TO 3AM PST). THE EVENING AND
NIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO REEVALUATE THIS AND INCREASE POPS ALONG THE
COAST FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING IF THERE`S STRONGER EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT
IT.
SHOWERS (IF WE GET ANY) ON WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
THE COAST. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH JUST OFF THE OREGON COAST. THE MODELS KEEP
MOST OF THE PRECIP OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING, THEN SHOWS SOME INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUSPECT THIS ALSO MAY BE OVERDONE. INSTABILITY
IS MARGINAL AT BEST AND THE TRIGGER IS WEAK OR NON- EXISTENT.
THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE`LL GET ANYTHING. SO WE`LL
KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW BUT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, LATER SHIFTS
WILL WANT TO REEVALUATE.
THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
EAST INTO THE AREA BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER ON FRIDAY, BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALL THE
PASSES. -PETRUCELLI
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A MORE WESTERLY JETSTREAM
WILL BRING A WARM FRONT INLAND ON SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 5500 FEET IN OREGON AND UP TO 7000 FEET IN
THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWS ARE IN A FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON OUR FORECAST AREA SEEING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
BY MONDAY HOWEVER BOTH MODELS STRENGTHENS THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE ON ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG AND ALLOWS SOME
OVERRUNNING. AS A RESULT WE ARE KEEPING MONDAY DRY BUT RE-INTRODUCE
CHANCE POPS FOR COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE WE MAY SHIFT BACK TO A WET PATTER AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. /FB
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 09/18Z TAF CYCLE...IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND WE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LIFT
TO VFR BY 20Z. OTHERWISE THE ATMOSPHERE IS DRIER TODAY AND WE CAN
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REST OF THE TAF AREA. IN SPITE OF
THE DRIER AIR...WE STILL EXPECT IFR CIGS TO RETURN TO THE ROSEBURG
AREA TONIGHT ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH SMALLER THAN IN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS. /FB
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 900 AM PST MON FEB 9 2016...A NARROW BAND OF 10 FT
SWELL IS MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FROM NORTH BEND SOUTH TO
AROUND PORT ORFORD. WE FEEL THAT THIS FEATURE IS TEMPORARY AS THE
WAVEWATCH BULLETIN SHOWS NO MAJOR SWELL TODAY, AND HAVE DECIDED TO
ISSUE A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THIS FEATURE. OTHERWISE
THE FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE MARINE AREA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH
THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY THEN DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES SHORE.
A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
WEEKEND WILL BRING OCCASIONAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INLAND THESE FRONTS WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS
IN MOVES THROUGH. IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL THIS WEEKEND BEFORE ANY FRONT
IS STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE MORE THAN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS.
A LONG PERIOD SWELL TRAIN UP TO 18 SECONDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A HIGH SURF CONDITION. /FB
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY
FOR PZZ370.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
315 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ONGOING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
TRANSITION INTO A LONG WAVE TROUGH. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW FOR MID-WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND...WHERE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE FAVORED
NORTHWEST SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AND
LAURELS. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE WINTER IS POISED TO BRING
FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE LOWER SUSQ /MAINLY
EAST OF THE RIVER AT 20Z/ WHERE RATES IN HIGHEST RADAR RETURNS
ARE RUNNING AROUND A HALF TO AN INCH/HOUR. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING AS AREA OF SNOW
LIFTS EASTWARD...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMS LINGERING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS WARNINGS/ADVISORIES EXPIRE.
ELSEWHERE...FOCUS OVER NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE ON A N/S ORIENTED
BAND DROPPING OFF THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE CENTRAL
MTNS. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE...AND
IT LOOKS INTENSE ENOUGH TO BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS IT PASSES.
OVER THE LAURELS...PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY ACCUMULATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT IN UPSLOPE FLOW.
TEMPS BASICALLY REMAIN STEADY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 20S THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW WILL BE FILLING AND LOSING IT/S CLOSED CONTOURS...
BECOMING A LONG WAVE TROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST
OF CENTRAL PA BY MIDNIGHT.
THINGS THEN TRANSITION TO A PLAIN-OLD UPSLOPE SNOW SITUATION FOR
THE LAURELS AND NW MTNS. A LM CONNECTION DEVELOPS UNDER HIGHLY-
FAVORABLE TEMPERATURES/CONDITIONS. THE AIR DOES DRY OUT ON THE
WHOLE...SO MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE THAN
FLURRIES. DOWNSLOPE MAY ALLOW THE SE TO GET A DEG OR TWO WARMER
THAN TODAY. THE LAKE EFFECT IN THE NW WILL BE RAMPING UP...BUT THE
STACKED WEST WIND PROFILE FAVORS WRN NY STATE THAN NW PA. OF
COURSE...THE COLD AIR WILL LIKELY EXTEND SOME BANDS INTO WARREN
CO...AND HAVE COORDINATED TIMING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR MAINLY NW WARREN COUNTY. ADVISORY CONTINUES
FOR THE LAURELS WHERE THE SNOW WILL NEVER REALLY TAKE A BREAK.
THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER OUT IN TIME TO COVER END OF
POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT BANDS.
TEMPS DROP OFF QUITE QUICKLY LATE WED AS REGION RECEIVES A
GLANCING BLOW OF -20C 850MB AIR. MINS MAY GET INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ON THE HILL TOPS OF THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS AS WIND
CHILLS GO BELOW ZERO IN A STIFF BREEZE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE WITH ARCTIC
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY; FRIGID TEMPERATURES/DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.
POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE FIRST SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.
THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM AROUND 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ.
VALLEY TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.
A SLOW MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WITH A POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING/WAA TYPE SNOW EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD...ESP SOUTH OF
I-80...AS LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON.
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY TO VSBY...AS SNOW
TAPERS TO FLURRIES. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT
AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES A BIT OVERNIGHT CIGS WILL IMPROVE AS
WELL IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. LOWER SUSQ WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
WITH CENTRAL MTNS HOLDING ON TO AN MVFR DECK. WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES IN THE AIR WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW KEEPING MAINLY IFR CIGS IN PLACE.
OUTLOOK...
WED...MAINLY IFR IN SNOW WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS
CENTRAL/EAST.
THU-SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.
SUN...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ025>028-034>036-056>059-063.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ024-
033.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ064>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1156 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW NEAR 20 KNOT LOWER LEVEL NORTHERLIES TO
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN GUST THIS AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT LIGHT WINDS WILL GO VARIABLE FOR A
GOOD PART OF WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF...WITH LOWERING RED RIVER VALLEY SURFACE PRESSURE...
WILL BACK WINDS MORE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...
LOW RH VALUES AND MARGINALLY STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS OVER THE NE HALF OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY GUST
OVER 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON SO FEEL ITS BEST TO ISSUE ANOTHER RED
FLAG WARNING. WINDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH BUT GROUND FUELS ARE DRY AND RH VALUES NEAR
15 PERCENT WILL STILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDS FOR RAPID FIRE
GROWTH. 31/43
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/
.ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY...
DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BRING CLEAR
SKIES...VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION
TODAY. AT 1000 AM...SFC DEW PTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE TEENS (9 DEGREES AT KRWV AND 11 DEGREES AT KHOU/KLVJ).
LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE HRRR FOR DEW POINTS TODAY WHICH SHOWS A
MINIMUM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME MINOR RECOVERY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MIN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20
PERCENT TODAY. 12 SOUNDINGS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER
50S OVER THE NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 60S TO THE SOUTHWEST. MADE
MINOR TWEAKS TO MAX TEMP GRIDS. CIRRUS NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA
AND TRENDED SKY COVER TO CLEAR. 12Z SHV/LCH SOUNDING SHOWS 45 KNOT
WINDS AT 2000 FEET BUT THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING ONLY SHOWS 15 KNOTS AT
2000 FEET SO STRONGER WINDS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES TODAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE WEST. AT THIS TIME...WIND
SPEEDS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA BUT IF WIND
SPEEDS INCREASE MORE THAN FCST...A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE
REQUIRED. 43
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/
AVIATION...
VFR. NW WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS...
DECREASING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
COMING AROUND TO THE SE AND S DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND INCREASING
TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS. 42
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...
IR SAT SHOWING SOME CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS COASTAL AREAS.
ELSEWHERE...IT IS CLEAR. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID
30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS...SO WE WILL SEE A COLD START TO
THE DAY. DW PTS RANGE FROM NEAR 30 COASTAL SOUTHWEST TO THE TEENS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. WITH MIXING LATER TODAY...WILL SEE LOW RH`S
FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
A GRADUAL WARM UP IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE CURRENT
AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND RESULTS IN MID/UPPER HEIGHTS RISING AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN WED NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NE ON SATURDAY AND IT WILL LIKELY
STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SE TX ON SAT NIGHT. THIS
WEAKENING BOUNDARY AND AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER TROF WILL PRODUCE
A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN ON SUN/MON. 33
MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO COME DOWN...BUT WILL KEEP THE
CAUTION FLAGS IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND ADVISORIES IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 AM. LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 63 40 69 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 63 41 69 51 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 60 48 63 56 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...GM...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES THROUGH 6 PM CST.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1148 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...
LOW RH VALUES AND MARGINALLY STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS OVER THE NE HALF OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY GUST
OVER 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON SO FEEL ITS BEST TO ISSUE ANOTHER RED
FLAG WARNING. WINDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH BUT GROUND FUELS ARE DRY AND RH VALUES NEAR
15 PERCENT WILL STILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDS FOR RAPID FIRE
GROWTH. 31/43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/
..ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY...
DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BRING CLEAR
SKIES...VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION
TODAY. AT 1000 AM...SFC DEW PTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE TEENS (9 DEGREES AT KRWV AND 11 DEGREES AT KHOU/KLVJ).
LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE HRRR FOR DEW POINTS TODAY WHICH SHOWS A
MINIMUM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME MINOR RECOVERY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MIN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20
PERCENT TODAY. 12 SOUNDINGS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER
50S OVER THE NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 60S TO THE SOUTHWEST. MADE
MINOR TWEAKS TO MAX TEMP GRIDS. CIRRUS NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA
AND TRENDED SKY COVER TO CLEAR. 12Z SHV/LCH SOUNDING SHOWS 45 KNOT
WINDS AT 2000 FEET BUT THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING ONLY SHOWS 15 KNOTS AT
2000 FEET SO STRONGER WINDS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES TODAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE WEST. AT THIS TIME...WIND
SPEEDS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA BUT IF WIND
SPEEDS INCREASE MORE THAN FCST...A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE
REQUIRED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/
AVIATION...
VFR. NW WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS...
DECREASING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
COMING AROUND TO THE SE AND S DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND INCREASING
TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS. 42
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...
IR SAT SHOWING SOME CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS COASTAL AREAS.
ELSEWHERE...IT IS CLEAR. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID
30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS...SO WE WILL SEE A COLD START TO
THE DAY. DW PTS RANGE FROM NEAR 30 COASTAL SOUTHWEST TO THE TEENS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. WITH MIXING LATER TODAY...WILL SEE LOW RH`S
FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE CURRENT
AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND RESULTS IN MID/UPPER HEIGHTS RISING AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN WED NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NE ON SATURDAY AND IT WILL LIKELY
STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SE TX ON SAT NIGHT. THIS
WEAKENING BOUNDARY AND AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER TROF WILL PRODUCE
A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN ON SUN/MON. 33
MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO COME DOWN...BUT WILL KEEP THE
CAUTION FLAGS IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND ADVISORIES IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 AM. LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD. 42
FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
VERY LOW TODAY BUT WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE
YESTERDAY. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...IT WILL ONLY TAKE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO
PLACE US BACK INTO WARNING LEVELS. WE WILL BE WATCHING THIS
CLOSELY. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 63 40 69 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 63 41 69 51 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 60 48 63 56 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-
BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-
WASHINGTON-WHARTON.
GM...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GALVESTON
BAY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1007 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY...
.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BRING CLEAR
SKIES...VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION
TODAY. AT 1000 AM...SFC DEW PTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE TEENS (9 DEGREES AT KRWV AND 11 DEGREES AT KHOU/KLVJ).
LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE HRRR FOR DEW POINTS TODAY WHICH SHOWS A
MINIMUM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME MINOR RECOVERY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MIN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20
PERCENT TODAY. 12 SOUNDINGS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER
50S OVER THE NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 60S TO THE SOUTHWEST. MADE
MINOR TWEAKS TO MAX TEMP GRIDS. CIRRUS NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA
AND TRENDED SKY COVER TO CLEAR. 12Z SHV/LCH SOUNDING SHOWS 45 KNOT
WINDS AT 2000 FEET BUT THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING ONLY SHOWS 15 KNOTS AT
2000 FEET SO STRONGER WINDS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES TODAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE WEST. AT THIS TIME...WIND
SPEEDS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA BUT IF WIND
SPEEDS INCREASE MORE THAN FCST...A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE
REQUIRED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/
AVIATION...
VFR. NW WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS...
DECREASING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
COMING AROUND TO THE SE AND S DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND INCREASING
TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS. 42
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...
IR SAT SHOWING SOME CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS COASTAL AREAS.
ELSEWHERE...IT IS CLEAR. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID
30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS...SO WE WILL SEE A COLD START TO
THE DAY. DW PTS RANGE FROM NEAR 30 COASTAL SOUTHWEST TO THE TEENS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. WITH MIXING LATER TODAY...WILL SEE LOW RH`S
FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE CURRENT
AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND RESULTS IN MID/UPPER HEIGHTS RISING AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN WED NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NE ON SATURDAY AND IT WILL LIKELY
STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SE TX ON SAT NIGHT. THIS
WEAKENING BOUNDARY AND AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER TROF WILL PRODUCE
A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN ON SUN/MON. 33
MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO COME DOWN...BUT WILL KEEP THE
CAUTION FLAGS IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND ADVISORIES IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 AM. LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD. 42
FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
VERY LOW TODAY BUT WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE
YESTERDAY. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...IT WILL ONLY TAKE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO
PLACE US BACK INTO WARNING LEVELS. WE WILL BE WATCHING THIS
CLOSELY. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 63 40 69 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 63 41 69 51 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 60 48 63 56 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
1158 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
TERMINALS ARE IN A RELATIVE LULL IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE SNOW SHOWERS WILL NOT COMPLETELY FILL BACK
IN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DO EXPECT SOME UPTICK IN COVERAGE
MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF KMSN...AS
A SHORTWAVE IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA ROTATES SOUTHEASTWARD. CEILINGS
WILL HOVER IN THE MVFR TO LOW VFR RANGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...TRENDING TOWARD MVFR. VSBY REDUCTIONS IN SNOW SHOULD
ALSO BE MVFR...WITH INFREQUENT IFR POSSIBLE. EXPECT COVERAGE TO
DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY MID TO LATE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES LOOK TO SCATTER FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT...WITH BROKEN CLOUDS POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THAT LOOK TO LARGELY REMAIN VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...EASING SOME DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO
IL/
UPDATE...
LOWERED POPS SOME TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME SUPPRESSION BEHIND THE
EARLIER MORNING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. STILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
CHANCE TO LIKELY SNOW SHOWER WORDING AS THERE SHOULD STILL BE
OCCASIONAL FLURRIES/SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. STILL HANGING ONTO
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS BEGINNING MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON WITH REASONING FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION STILL
VALID. LAPSE RATES STEEPEN SOME DURING THIS PERIOD AHEAD OF THE
VORT MAX CURRENTLY ROTATING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE LIGHT SNOW AND HOW PESKY IT WILL BE
TODAY/THIS EVENING.
CURRENTLY...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE US THANKS TO A CLOSED 500MB LOW CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS
NORTH OF THIS CLOSED LOW ALONG WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN ON UP TO
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHWEST HUDSON BAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS CENTERED TO THE EAST OF DETROIT WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING WEST FROM THIS LOW INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS
FEATURE HELPED TO CREATE SOME STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT BUT HAS MAINLY PUSHED THEM TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN DROPPING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
THE POOL OF COLD LOW LEVEL AIR HAS BEEN PULLED SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA ALONG THE WESTERN GRADIENT OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH.
THE 09.06Z RAP SHOWS 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING FROM -13C AT 7Z TO -
19C BY 00Z THIS EVENING. GIVEN THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION AND OVERCAST
CONDITIONS...EXPECT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
CLIMBING MUCH TODAY. AS FOR SNOWFALL POTENTIAL...THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT LINGERS IN WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH SOME DECENT QG FORCING IN THE 850-500MB LAYER OVER THIS
PERIOD. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN...THE SATURATED PORTION OF
THE THERMAL PROFILE FROM JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ON UP TO AROUND
700MB WILL BE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SO AM EXPECTING THIS TO
CONTINUE TO BE A HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO SITUATION. IF THERE IS
ONE PERIOD TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT IS THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
PERIOD WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
ROTATE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW AND COULD PROVIDE
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. AS OF NOW...HAVE AN AROUND AN
INCH OF ACCUMULATION ALONG THE LAKE WITH LESSER AMOUNTS THE FURTHER
WEST YOU GET.
WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
PRIMARY MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN LAKES
THOUGH BROAD EXPANSE OF THE TROUGH STILL FELT HERE WITH MAINLY
SHEARED VORT RIDING SE IN THE FLOW. COLD LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH
IN PLACE WITH 925 TEMPS -16C TO -18C. WIND CHILLS PROGGD TO BE
WELL BELOW ZERO EARLY ON BUT NOT QUITE REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS.
BUFKIT SHOWS ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE.
WILL RETAIN DRY FORECAST. LLVL RH PROGS AND MOS SUGGEST SOME CLOUD
COVER WILL LINGER WITHIN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW AND CHILLY THERMAL TROUGH.
THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ELONGATED SHEAR AXIS ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH
WILL SHIFT EAST WITH STRONG NW UPPER FLOW PERSISTING. VERY CHILLY
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH 925 TEMPS SHOWING ONLY SUBTLE
MODIFICATION. SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO IA AND RIDGES INTO THE MID
MISS VLY.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
250 MILLIBAR SPEED MAX DRIVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH MODELS
SHOWING A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM WITH LIGHT QPF AHEAD OF NEXT ARCTIC
SURGE. WEAK SHOT OF WAA WITH MOSTLY SHEARED VORT. 00Z ECMWF
CONTINUED TREND OF 12Z RUN TO GENERATE A BIT MORE QPF AREA WIDE
THAN THE GFS OR GEM. WILL GO WITH BLENDED POPS FOR NOW AS GFS/GEM
IN AGREEMENT WITH LESS QPF AND CONFINED MORE TO THE SW AND SRN PTN
OF THE CWA.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS EXPECTED WITH 1045 MILLIBAR HIGH BUILDING
IN FROM THE DAKOTAS THIS PERIOD. WILL LIKELY SEE WIND CHILLS WELL
BELOW ZERO FRI NGT INTO SAT MRNG. 925 TEMPS PROGGD TO -20C TO
-24C.
SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE SHIFTS ESE FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. MEANWHILE SOME MODEL DIVERGENCE ON PLACEMENT OF LOW LEVEL
FEATURES. THE GFS SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN TROUGH WHILE
THE ECMWF CARVES OUT A STRONGER MORE SOUTHERN LOW VCNTY MO. THERE
IS SOME AGREEMENT THAT 850 WAA WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES IN SFC/850 LOW
PLACEMENT. SO WILL BE USING SUPERBLEND POPS AS THESE SEEM
REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A MORE SRN SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO
SFC/850 LOW TRACKS WHILE THE GFS TRACKS SFC LOW/TROUGH ACROSS WI.
SO AGAIN DESPITE SOME DIFFERENCES THE MAIN MESSAGE WILL BE SNOW
CHANCES CONTINUING AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
MARINE...OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
INTO WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN HIGH
PLAINS. WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS PERIOD. WAVES WILL BE
THE HIGHEST TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE AS WELL GIVEN THE
NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KMD
AVIATION...KMD
TODAY/TONIGHT...HALBACH
THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR