Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 02/08/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
941 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH
MONDAY...BRINGING SNOW TO NEW ENGLAND...AND JUST GLANCING OUR
REGION. LATE MONDAY INTO THURSDAY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A PERIOD OF TYPICAL
FEBRUARY WEATHER WILL COMMENCE WITH CLOUDY...AND COLD CONDITIONS
WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 940 PM EST...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NY AND NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN FROM SE QUEBEC. HIGH CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY
INCREASING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE COASTAL CYCLONE NEAR COASTAL
NC. SKYCOVER WAS ADJUSTED FOR THE INCREASING CLOUDS. CLOUDS WILL
BE THICKENING AND LOWERING SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 TRENDS ARE TO SLOW DOWN THE
LIGHT SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WELL IN ADVANCE
OF THE COASTAL WAVE...THAT WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FCST
AREA. THE POPS WERE REDUCED ACROSS NW CT AND THE SRN BERKS UNTIL
12Z-15Z/MON. EXPECT A COLD AND DRY OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MAINLY
MID AND U20S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT THE CT RIVER VALLEY EAST
OF THE SRN GREENS WHERE SOME LOWER 20S ARE POSSIBLE.
MONDAY PRESENTS A TRICKY FORECAST AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT WASHES
OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS A COASTAL LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
FROM WELL EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS TO SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE
NORTHWEST FRINGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS
OF THE FA WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT OVER
SRN LITCHFIELD CT WHERE 2-4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF THE LITCHFIELD HILLS. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE FCST AREA WILL MAINLY BE SANDWICHED
BETWEEN EXITING COASTAL LOW AND CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 500 HPA A LARGE LUMBERING CUT OFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST BECOMING A DEEP TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND THE USA BY PERIODS END. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL DROP
INTO IT...RESULTING IN ITS SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT.
THE COMBINATION OF THE LARGE CUT OFF...SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND
IT...A NW-SE SFC TROF FM CLE TO RIC PIVOTING SLOWLY NE...WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF -SN...-SNSH FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
GENERAL WEAK UPR FLOW AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP AMOUNTS LIGHT
WITH AT MOST A FEW INCHES TOTAL OVER THE PERIOD.
BY WED NT THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION. THE 500 HPA CUT OFF WILL
OPEN TO A SHARP TROF THAT MOVES INTO THE E GRTLKS. AN E-W CDFNT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR
ORGANIZING LES...AND CAA FROM AN INCRG NW FLOW WILL ENHANCE SNSN
OVER HIGHER TRRN. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN NR TO
SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL DURING.
WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE...ACTUAL
TIMING OF LT SNOW...-SHSN VARIES AS ITS TIED TO VARYING TIMING OF
SHORT WVS. SO FCST WILL WILL CARRY HI CHC -SNSH MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THE 500 HPA TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE RGN AND FLATTENS.
IN ITS WAKE A BRISK NORTH FLOW...BTWN AN ARCTIC HIGH IN THE UPPER
GRT PLAINS AND DEEPENING CSTL LOW IN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN STRONG
CAA. SCT -SHSN WILL STILL BE A CONCERN...BUT THEY WILL BE MAINLY
LES WITH LESS THAN AN OPTIMAL TRAJECTORY ACROSS LK ONT...AND N-NW
FLOW OVER HIR TRRN.
THU NT THERMAL TROF SETS UP OVER N GRT LKS...AND AS THE NEXT COLD
AIRMASS OVER ONT/QB PUSHES SOUTH EVOLVES INTO ANOTHER E-W
CDFNT...AND A VERY ENHANCED LES RESPONSE BY FRI ALONG THE FRONT IN
W AND CNTRL NYS. BY END OF THE PERIOD TROF SHARPENS AND CDFNT MVS
SOUTH OF RGN...AND STRONG CAA IS IN PLACE...AS LES BREAKS DOWN SAT
IN OUR FCA. WIND AND COLD FRI NT TO PERIODS END MAY RESULT IN
WIND CHILL ISSUES.
TEMPS WILL GO OFF THE CLIFF IN THIS PERIOD BCMG 10-15 DEG BLO
NORMAL. WINTER COLD WILL BE HERE BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY THE
AFTERNOON NORTH AND WEST OF A COASTAL SYSTEM.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN VFR AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU PRIOR TO 12Z/MON.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE. SOME LOW STRATUS IS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY NEAR KPSF BY 12Z IN THE HIGH MVFR RANGE. LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO KPSF-KPOU BTWN 17Z-19Z...WHEN MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS POSSIBLE. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD KALB-KGFL
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...IN THE 21Z/MON-00Z/TUE TIME FRAME...AND
VCSH GROUPS WERE USED AT KGFL...AND POTENTIALLY SOME MVFR VSBYS AT
KALB WITH LIGHT SNOW AT 22Z/MON.
THE WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH AND VARIABLE
DIRECTION AT 6 KTS UNTIL THE EARLY TO MID MORNING WHEN NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AT 5-10 KTS. EXPECT N TO NE WINDS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NT TO WED NT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
849 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
...ANOTHER ROUND OF HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY...
...CONDITIONS FAVOR FREQUENT RIP CURRENTS AND EROSION ALONG AREA
BEACHES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
.UPDATE (REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
01Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE POTENT UPPER
DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT THE RAINFALL TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
NOW REALLY SPUN UP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AS A POWERFUL OCEAN
STORM. THIS STORM WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE AWAY FROM THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TAKING
ON A MORE ZONAL APPEARANCE...AND THE NEAR SURFACE GRADIENT SLOWLY
RELAXING. THIS RELAXING OF THE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS
TO CONTINUE SUBSIDING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT.
THIS SUBSIDING OF THE CONDITIONS OVER THE MARINE AREAS WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED. ANOTHER LARGE AMPLIFICATION TO THE PATTERN IS
ALREADY DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTY
THIS EVENING. THIS TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ALL THE WAY TO THE NORTHERN
GULF ON MONDAY AND PROPEL A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL REALLY INCREASE QUICKLY
IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE EASTERN GULF...WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS LIKELY AT TIMES MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...FORECAST WILL FEATURE CHILLY BUT
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. MOST LOCATIONS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S
AWAY FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND MAY SEE A FEW SPOTS BRIEFLY
APPROACH FREEZING UP OVER LEVY COUNTY TOWARD DAYBREAK. A FEW
ISOLATED POCKETS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST...IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN DECOUPLE LATE...BUT DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ENOUGH FROST COVERAGE TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.
MONDAY WILL FEATURE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IN THE MORNING. LETS
CALL IT FILTERED SUN THROUGH PASSING HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS. AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY...LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE...AND THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SURFACE FOCUS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY TO FORCE A FEW SHOWERS. ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD BE BRIEF AND QUICKLY EXIT OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL THEN QUICKLY RAMP UP OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST. EVERYONE WILL BE WINDY MONDAY EVENING...BUT
LOCATIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL FEEL THE BRUNT OF THE
WINDS...WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
THE LONG FETCH AND DURATION OF STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE LARGE
BREAKING SURF ALONG AREA BEACHES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. IT
IS LIKELY A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND RIP CURRENT STATEMENT WILL BE
REQUIRED. THE EXTENT OF THE HIGH SURF MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF BEACH
EROSION...ESPECIALLY AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS. THE ONLY REAL AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS
DEVELOPING LATE MONDAY. THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME STRONG
WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING FOR
KTPA/KPIE/KSRQ...AND POSSIBLY DOWN TO KFMY/KRSW. GUSTY AND
ELEVATED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF BELOW ADVISORY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THEREAFTER...ANOTHER POWERFUL FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THIS
SYSTEM PROMISES TO BRING EVEN STRONGER WINDS THAN THIS RECENT
ONE...WITH SOLID HIGH END ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS...AND FREQUENT
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE OFFSHORE AND NEAR SHORE WATERS. IN
ADDITION...LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES ARE LIKELY TO BUILD BY
THE END OF MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SEAS ON THE ORDER OF 12 TO 15 FEET
OVER THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS PERIOD OF DANGEROUS WINDS
AND SEAS LOOKS TO LAST INTO LATE TUESDAY...WITH GRADUALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ONCE
AGAIN BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE LONG FETCH OF WINDS MEANS WAVES
ARE LIKELY TO SUBSIDE SLOWER WITH ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS POTENTIALLY
LINGERING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 45 65 49 58 / 0 10 20 10
FMY 44 66 54 65 / 0 0 10 10
GIF 41 66 47 61 / 0 10 20 10
SRQ 45 67 54 61 / 0 10 20 10
BKV 35 65 45 57 / 0 20 20 10
SPG 48 66 53 59 / 0 10 20 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
SARASOTA.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL
OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON
SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT
20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...14/MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
229 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016
.UPDATE...
932 AM CST
FOR MORNING UPDATE...
AFTER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AN AREA OF STRATUS WAS SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN
IL ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE I-88 CORRIDOR AND WILL MAKE FOR CLOUDY
OR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THESE LOCATIONS TODAY. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS WITHIN WEAK LOW LEVEL
MOIST AXIS OVER IA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND
AFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE CWA. RELATIVELY SHALLOW
NATURE OF CLOUD DECK AS INFERRED FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND RAP SOUNDINGS...COMBINED WITH PASSAGE OF MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION AND HAVE REMOVED FLURRIES
FROM MORNING FORECAST. HAVE ALSO DECREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. OTHER
ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST...INCLUDING TEMPERATURES...APPEAR TO BE
ON TRACK. UPDATED GRIDS/ZFP AVAILABLE.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
327 AM CST
THROUGH SUNDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND VORT STREAMER SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES ALSO SHIFTING SOUTHEAST.
THE FLURRIES ARE STRUGGLING RIGHT NOW...AND NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATION. SOUTHWEST WINDS USHER IN WARMER AIR WITH HIGHS AROUND
40. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-80 SHOULD SEE SOME SUN TODAY...AND THE SUN
SHOULD HELP TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE VORT STREAMER ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES OVER NW IL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD KICK OFF LIGHT RAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH THAN THE OTHER MODELS
REGARDING PRECIP SUNDAY...SO ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE AND EXTENT OF RAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS WILL
BE RAIN. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
JEE
&&
.LONG TERM...
229 PM CST
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONGER
TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DROPPING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN AND INTO LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY WITH NWLY WINDS
GUSTING TO 25 TO 30MPH AT TIMES. STRONG COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BEGIN
IN EARNEST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE ERN
GREAT LAKES AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PAC NORTHWEST. THE
UPPER FLOW PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN AMPLITUDE INTO
MIDWEEK WHILE SHOWING LITTLE PROGRESSION. THIS WILL SET UP THE NEXT
ROUND OF COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION AS A PERSISTENT FETCH OF
COLD AIR OUT OF THE ARCTIC WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. BY
TUESDAY...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MIDDLE
20S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD GENERALLY
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH TEMPS ARND 10-12F
OVER THE SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND DOWNTOWN CHICAGO. WIND CHILL
READINGS SHOULD BE LOWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WINDS ARND 10 MPH
PERSIST OVERNIGHT...DRIVING WIND CHILLS DOWN TO -10 TO -15F. BY
THURSDAY...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN A BIT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS FLATTENING IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP
UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL ALSO HELP THE
UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT TO THE EAST. SO...BY LATE IN THE
PERIOD...CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND A LITTLE WARMER...BUT TEMPERATURES
SHOULD STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.
THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DROP SEWD THROUGH THE FAST NWLY FLOW SETTING UP
ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAY END UP BEING A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY HIGH
POPS AND LOW QPF AS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE FOR THE SHORTWAVES TO WORK WITH. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY...PCPN MAY ALSO JUST BE SCT SNOW SHOWERS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME ACCUMULATION FOR THE PERIOD FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CURRENT INDICATORS SUGGESTING 1 TO
3 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXPECT THAT PCPN CHANCES WILL SHUT OFF AS UPPER FLOW
TRENDS TOWARD A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER PORTIONS OF THE CONUS EAST
OF THE ROCKIES AND WEAK RIDGING ALONG THE ROCKIES. SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE ERN SHORES OF LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT THE
LOCAL AREA SHOULD TREND DRY.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS ARE A SHORT DURATION OF MVFR CIGS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY.
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT MIDDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE WAS HELPING TO ADVECT AN AREA OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL...WITH
NORTHERN IL TERMINAL SITES GENERALLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE MORE SOLID CLOUD COVER. BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS...
A BRIEF 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN THE 1500-2000 FT RANGE
WILL LIKELY AFFECT ORD/DPA/MDW/RFD...WITH GYY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SCATTERED AT BEST. RFD WILL BE CLOSER TO THE MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER TO THE NORTH AND WEST THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT RFD WILL ALSO
SCATTER OUT. WINDS THEN LOOK TO BACK SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
THIS EVENING...IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
EXTENSIVE AREA OF IFR/LIFR OVER IA EXPECTED TO LIFT MORE NORTHEAST
THAN EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH GUIDANCE KEEPING IL/NW IN TERMINALS
VFR WHILE ERODING AND SHIFTING IFR CIGS NORTHEAST ACROSS WI.
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A GRADUAL TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT
AND INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT. STRONG LOW LEVEL
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT GUSTINESS LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH
WINDS LIKELY GUSTING 20+ KTS FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AS
PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TRAILING THE LOW.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM VARIOUS MODELS MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE DRY
AIR IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AND MINIMAL
PRECIP THREAT.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
119 AM CST
A WEAK BUT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY SCOOT EAST THROUGH TODAY. MORNING WIND
GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE LAKE SHOULD BE AROUND
30 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RE-INCREASE TO THAT
MAGNITUDE TONIGHT AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. THE WINDS ACTUALLY WILL EASE A TAD
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MORE SO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG.
HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW FAST THIS NEXT LOW WILL MOVE INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. BEHIND IT THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST
OCCASIONAL GALES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THAT SIGNAL IS A BIT LESS THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS
AGO...LIKELY BECAUSE THE LOW HAS SLOWED IN MODEL GUIDANCE. THERE
MAY BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SECOND COLD
PUSH MOVES OVER THE LAKE...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1147 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016
.UPDATE...
932 AM CST
FOR MORNING UPDATE...
AFTER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AN AREA OF STRATUS WAS SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN
IL ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE I-88 CORRIDOR AND WILL MAKE FOR CLOUDY
OR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THESE LOCATIONS TODAY. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS WITHIN WEAK LOW LEVEL
MOIST AXIS OVER IA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND
AFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE CWA. RELATIVELY SHALLOW
NATURE OF CLOUD DECK AS INFERRED FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND RAP SOUNDINGS...COMBINED WITH PASSAGE OF MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION AND HAVE REMOVED FLURRIES
FROM MORNING FORECAST. HAVE ALSO DECREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. OTHER
ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST...INCLUDING TEMPERATURES...APPEAR TO BE
ON TRACK. UPDATED GRIDS/ZFP AVAILABLE.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
327 AM CST
THROUGH SUNDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND VORT STREAMER SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES ALSO SHIFTING SOUTHEAST.
THE FLURRIES ARE STRUGGLING RIGHT NOW...AND NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATION. SOUTHWEST WINDS USHER IN WARMER AIR WITH HIGHS AROUND
40. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-80 SHOULD SEE SOME SUN TODAY...AND THE SUN
SHOULD HELP TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE VORT STREAMER ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES OVER NW IL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD KICK OFF LIGHT RAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH THAN THE OTHER MODELS
REGARDING PRECIP SUNDAY...SO ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE AND EXTENT OF RAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS WILL
BE RAIN. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
JEE
&&
.LONG TERM...
327 AM CST
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES IT TIME SHIFTING EAST THROUGH MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE LOW ALSO HANGS AROUND THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL VORT STREAMERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH WILL FORCE PRECIP THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...AND LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR NW INDIANA. RAIN WILL
TURN TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FEATURE WEAK FORCING...BUT
A DEEP DGZ. SO EXPECTING A LIGHT PERSISTENT SNOWFALL THAT GRADUALLY
ACCUMULATES. THE TYPE OF SNOW SHOULD START AS A WET SNOW BUT QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO A DRY SNOW. PRELIMINARY EVENT TOTALS ARE ONLY 1-2
INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTER COUNTY WHERE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL LINGER LONGER. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS COULD RESULT IN
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ESPECIALLY IN OPEN
AREAS.
TEMPS FALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
SPREADS OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE AROUND 20. THE
COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM +5 TO
+12...BUT WIND CHILLS WILL BE 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO.
THE ECMWF FEATURES AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE BRINGING PRECIP TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTN WHILE THE GFS HAS THE WAVE FIZZLING OUT. KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY DUE TO A LACK OF CONFIDENCE...BUT THE MODELS SHOW A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY.
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS ARE A SHORT DURATION OF MVFR CIGS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY.
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT MIDDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE WAS HELPING TO ADVECT AN AREA OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL...WITH
NORTHERN IL TERMINAL SITES GENERALLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE MORE SOLID CLOUD COVER. BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS...
A BRIEF 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN THE 1500-2000 FT RANGE
WILL LIKELY AFFECT ORD/DPA/MDW/RFD...WITH GYY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SCATTERED AT BEST. RFD WILL BE CLOSER TO THE MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER TO THE NORTH AND WEST THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT RFD WILL ALSO
SCATTER OUT. WINDS THEN LOOK TO BACK SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
THIS EVENING...IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
EXTENSIVE AREA OF IFR/LIFR OVER IA EXPECTED TO LIFT MORE NORTHEAST
THAN EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH GUIDANCE KEEPING IL/NW IN TERMINALS
VFR WHILE ERODING AND SHIFTING IFR CIGS NORTHEAST ACROSS WI.
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A GRADUAL TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT
AND INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT. STRONG LOW LEVEL
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT GUSTINESS LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH
WINDS LIKELY GUSTING 20+ KTS FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AS
PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TRAILING THE LOW.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM VARIOUS MODELS MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE DRY
AIR IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AND MINIMAL
PRECIP THREAT.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
119 AM CST
A WEAK BUT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY SCOOT EAST THROUGH TODAY. MORNING WIND
GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE LAKE SHOULD BE AROUND
30 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RE-INCREASE TO THAT
MAGNITUDE TONIGHT AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. THE WINDS ACTUALLY WILL EASE A TAD
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MORE SO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG.
HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW FAST THIS NEXT LOW WILL MOVE INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. BEHIND IT THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST
OCCASIONAL GALES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THAT SIGNAL IS A BIT LESS THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS
AGO...LIKELY BECAUSE THE LOW HAS SLOWED IN MODEL GUIDANCE. THERE
MAY BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SECOND COLD
PUSH MOVES OVER THE LAKE...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
932 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016
.UPDATE...
932 AM CST
FOR MORNING UPDATE...
AFTER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AN AREA OF STRATUS WAS SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN
IL ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE I-88 CORRIDOR AND WILL MAKE FOR CLOUDY
OR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THESE LOCATIONS TODAY. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS WITHIN WEAK LOW LEVEL
MOIST AXIS OVER IA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND
AFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE CWA. RELATIVELY SHALLOW
NATURE OF CLOUD DECK AS INFERRED FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND RAP SOUNDINGS...COMBINED WITH PASSAGE OF MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION AND HAVE REMOVED FLURRIES
FROM MORNING FORECAST. HAVE ALSO DECREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. OTHER
ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST...INCLUDING TEMPERATURES...APPEAR TO BE
ON TRACK. UPDATED GRIDS/ZFP AVAILABLE.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
327 AM CST
THROUGH SUNDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND VORT STREAMER SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES ALSO SHIFTING SOUTHEAST.
THE FLURRIES ARE STRUGGLING RIGHT NOW...AND NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATION. SOUTHWEST WINDS USHER IN WARMER AIR WITH HIGHS AROUND
40. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-80 SHOULD SEE SOME SUN TODAY...AND THE SUN
SHOULD HELP TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE VORT STREAMER ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES OVER NW IL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD KICK OFF LIGHT RAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH THAN THE OTHER MODELS
REGARDING PRECIP SUNDAY...SO ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE AND EXTENT OF RAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS WILL
BE RAIN. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
JEE
&&
.LONG TERM...
327 AM CST
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES IT TIME SHIFTING EAST THROUGH MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE LOW ALSO HANGS AROUND THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL VORT STREAMERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH WILL FORCE PRECIP THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...AND LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR NW INDIANA. RAIN WILL
TURN TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FEATURE WEAK FORCING...BUT
A DEEP DGZ. SO EXPECTING A LIGHT PERSISTENT SNOWFALL THAT GRADUALLY
ACCUMULATES. THE TYPE OF SNOW SHOULD START AS A WET SNOW BUT QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO A DRY SNOW. PRELIMINARY EVENT TOTALS ARE ONLY 1-2
INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTER COUNTY WHERE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL LINGER LONGER. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS COULD RESULT IN
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ESPECIALLY IN OPEN
AREAS.
TEMPS FALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
SPREADS OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE AROUND 20. THE
COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM +5 TO
+12...BUT WIND CHILLS WILL BE 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO.
THE ECMWF FEATURES AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE BRINGING PRECIP TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTN WHILE THE GFS HAS THE WAVE FIZZLING OUT. KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY DUE TO A LACK OF CONFIDENCE...BUT THE MODELS SHOW A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY.
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...
A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ORD AND MDW
FROM MID-MORNING UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BE ALL ABOVE
2000 FT. CONFIDENCE ON THIS OCCURRING IS LOW FOR CHICAGO AREA
SITES...WHILE HIGHER FOR RFD WHERE TEMPORARY 1500-2000 FT CIGS
COULD OCCUR DURING MID-LATE MORNING. WINDS COULD GET NEAR LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE TONIGHT. A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EXISTS SUNDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT IS
QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.
A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO
EASTERN IOWA WILL GRADUALLY DAMPEN/WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. PROFILER WINDS AT KDVN INDICATE
ENOUGH OF A WESTERLY WIND PUSH FROM 1500-3000 FT TO STEER MVFR
CIGS INTO AT LEAST NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY 13Z...WITH PROBABLY
SOME PATCHES GETTING INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS LATER THIS MORNING.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE PEAKING RIGHT AROUND 10 KT
MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 1500 FT SHOULD PEAK AROUND 40 KT
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE PROFILE
JUST BELOW LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR CRITERIA. AS MOISTENING LOWERS
SUNDAY MORNING...CANNOT 100 PERCENT RULE OUT WIDELY PATCHY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN...AND THAT IS A BIG IF...IT
COULD BE A BRIEF LIGHT MIX WITH ICE PELLETS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
119 AM CST
A WEAK BUT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY SCOOT EAST THROUGH TODAY. MORNING WIND
GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE LAKE SHOULD BE AROUND
30 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RE-INCREASE TO THAT
MAGNITUDE TONIGHT AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. THE WINDS ACTUALLY WILL EASE A TAD
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MORE SO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG.
HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW FAST THIS NEXT LOW WILL MOVE INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. BEHIND IT THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST
OCCASIONAL GALES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THAT SIGNAL IS A BIT LESS THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS
AGO...LIKELY BECAUSE THE LOW HAS SLOWED IN MODEL GUIDANCE. THERE
MAY BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SECOND COLD
PUSH MOVES OVER THE LAKE...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1156 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016
AVIATION...
FOR THE ARKLATEX...EXITING AREA OF CLOUDS E W/ INCREASING LOW AND
MID DECKS FROM THE W AHEAD OF A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM OVER S OK
ATTM. OVERCAST DECKS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH VICINITY SHOWERS
FOR KSHV AND VFR -RA FOR TX TERMINALS AFTER DAYBREAK TOWARD LUNCH.
IFR/CIG TEMPOED FOR KTYR WITH MVFR KGGG/KLFK. OUR SFC WIND IS
CALM WITH SE FLOW EXTENDING UP FOR A FEW THOUSAND FEET BEFORE
VEERING AROUND TO S/SW/W INTO THE MIDLEVEL FLOW. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL RRESUME LATE SAT AND CONTINUE INTO SUN W/ SKC.
/24/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 923 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/
UPDATE...
CLOUD COVER IS DISSIPATING LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION AND WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...
TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING QUICKLY. IN FACT...WE ARE ALREADY AT FCST
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AS OF 03Z THIS
EVENING.
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOWING ELEVATED RETURNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS
ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS...THIS PRECIPITATION IS HAVING A DIFFICULT
TIME MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES CLOSER TO
OUR REGION DURING THE NIGHT...THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL HAVE TO
SATURATE FROM THE TOP DOWN AND OUR 00Z SOUNDING THIS EVENING
SHOWED VERY DRY AIR IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. LATEST OOZ RUNS OF THE
NAM AND LATEST HRRR DATA SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP WILL BEGIN MOVING
INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT MORE SO IN THE 09Z-12Z
TIMEFRAME BUT SHOULD STAY JUST WEST OF PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS IS IMPORTANT AS ITS THESE
LOCATIONS THAT WILL LIKELY BE BELOW FREEZING DURING THIS FRAME.
FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RAPID FALL IN
TEMPS THIS EVENING. HAVE ALSO TRIMMED POPS BACK ACROSS THESE SAME
LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA THROUGH 12Z SAT.
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS IN THE 12Z-15Z TIMEFRAME
BUT DO NOT FEEL LIKE THIS WILL BE A BIG EVENT...OR EVEN MARGINAL
FOR THAT MATTER BEFORE TEMPS WARM QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY
MORNING.
ALL OTHER GRIDS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...UPDATED FORECAST OUT
SHORTLY...13.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 34 53 33 61 / 10 30 10 0
MLU 34 52 32 60 / 10 10 10 0
DEQ 28 53 29 59 / 10 20 0 0
TXK 35 52 32 59 / 10 20 10 0
ELD 29 52 31 59 / 10 10 10 0
TYR 36 53 34 63 / 40 40 10 0
GGG 35 53 32 62 / 30 40 10 0
LFK 35 56 32 63 / 30 40 10 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
24/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
335 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016
A STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS EVIDENT ACROSS MONTANA AND THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS AFTN AS PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AHEAD OF
THIS SHORT WAVE...BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS ND/SD...AND
MOVED AS FAR EAST AS WC MN. REGIONAL OBS HAVE ALSO REPORTED
SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN WITH THE RADAR ECHOES. SOME OF THE OBS HAD EVEN
RECORDED A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVED ACROSS
THE AREA.
DUE TO THE FACT THAT OBS ARE REPORTING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND
THE LATEST RAP HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION...HAVE UPDATED WX GRIDS TO INCORPORATE LIKELY POPS IN
WC MN/CENTRAL MN DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING TIME FRAME. AS THE
LIGHT RAIN MOVES EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MN DURING THE EVENING...SFC
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ICY CONDS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. AS THIS
AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN AND WC WI...TEMPS
ALOFT ARE COLD ENOUGH TO HAD A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW.
DUE TO A PERSISTENT SW/WEST FLOW COMING FROM THE DAKOTAS WHERE
TODAYS TEMPS WERE IN THE 40S...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FALLING TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH MANY AREAS HAVING STEADY TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SUNDAY/S WX IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN/SW/SC MN FOR A TRUE BLIZZARD TO FORM. TODAYS
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH 40S ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE HAVE
CREATED A DENSER SNOWPACK /LESS LIKELY TO BLOW AROUND/. SOME AREAS
IN WC MN HAVE EVEN LOST MOST OF THEIR SNOWPACK...SO ANY BLOWING SNOW
WILL NEED TO BE FROM NEW SNOW SUNDAY AFTN. THEREFORE...DUE TO
PROBLEMS RELATED TO GENERATING BLOWING SNOW...THE BLIZZARD WATCH
WILL CONTINUE. FURTHER TO THE EAST WHERE A BETTER CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED AND THE SNOWPACK IS DEEPER...A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY AFTN THRU MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING AS TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO FALL FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE STATE BY THE AFTN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016
LONGER TERM CONCERN REMAINS BLIZZARD POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
WE STILL ANTICIPATE STRONG WINDS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS INTO MONDAY MORNING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS TO THE EAST OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. BUFKIT PROFILES OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH SHOWING MAX GUST
POTENTIALS OF 45-50 KTS. LARGE DGZ ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND
EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS OVERALL. THE HIGHER SNOW FALL
POTENTIAL OF 2-3 INCHES OVER THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH MONDAY
CWA. THE MAIN LIMITING SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL REMAINS
WARMER AIR TODAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING SOME SETTLING TO THE
EXISTING SNOW PACK...HOW WIDESPREAD THE NEW SNOW WILL BE AND ONLY
LIMITED SNOW FALL OVER WEST CENTRAL MN FROM THE FEB 2-3 EVENT.
THE BLOWING SNOW MODEL INDICATES IF SNOW IS REALIZED...WE WOULD
LIKELY SEE THE GROUND BLIZZARD ACROSS THE CURRENT BLIZZARD WATCH
AREA. ALSO...THE LATEST CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE STILL WAS INDICATING
A GREATER THAN 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF 2-3 HR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
BEING REALIZE AS WELL.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
THE LONG TERM MODELS WITH THE CHANCE OF A WEAK CLIPPER/WAA
ADVECTION PATTERN MOVING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR
NOW. THE OTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW MOVES IN WITH ANOTHER WEAK
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD
REMAIN DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK. THERE ARE SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTER HALF OF THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDS THIS AFTN WITH S/SW WINDS AHEAD OF
THE POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AVIATION CONCERNS DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS MVFR AND -SHRA DEVELOP
IN WESTERN MN BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY
BLW 5K IN WESTERN MN. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD AND MAY AFFECT KSTC DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING WITH
FREEZING PRECIPITATION NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BASED ON SFC TEMPS.
OTHERWISE...CONDS WILL DETERIORATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH WINDS
INCREASING FROM THE WEST/NW.
KMSP...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS IN THE NEXT 6 HRS WITH WINDS
GENERALLY FROM THE SSW ARND 10-12 KTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE SW/WEST TOWARD
MORNING. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MID/LATE
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME TO INTRODUCE IT. WILL
ALSO CONTINUE THE LLWS DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS ABV THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. CONDS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD WITH SNOW SHOWERS/BLOWING SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY AFTN.
WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS BY SUNDAY AFTN.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...CHC MVFR/IFR/-SN. WINDY. BLSN POSSIBLE. WIND NW 20G35KT.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
MNZ066-067-074>076-082>085-091>093.
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
MNZ041-047-048-054>058-064-065-073.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
MNZ042>045-049-050.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
MNZ051>053-059>063-068>070-077-078.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1124 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016
.UPDATE:
Issued at 933 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2016
Mid and high cloudiness is streaming over the area ahead of mid
level trough that is approaching the area from the northwest.
These clouds will limit temperatures from dropping somewhat, but
they have already dropped lower than forecast lows in a few areas
so went ahead a lowered them by a few degrees. There have been no
surface reports of rain or snow associated with radar returns over
central Missouri likely because low levels continue to be dry, so
will continue with a dry forecast through the rest of tonight.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 325 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2016
A pair of vort maxes will approach the region tonight, spreading
extensive mid/high cloudiness over the area. The northern vort max
is the weaker of the pair and eventually phases with the southern
disturbance, although there is some model disagreement regarding how
quickly this occurs. Latest runs of the RAP point to a quicker
phasing than shown by the local WRF or NAM, and the quicker timing
looks reasonable based on recent satellite imagery and PV analyses.
Quicker phasing means that the northern disturbance won`t produce
much lift over the CWA and therefore there is much less chance of
flurries or sprinkles given the already limited moisture. Overnight
lows should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday due to extensive
cloud cover and weak WAA at low levels behind a retreating surface
high pressure center.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM: (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 325 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2016
An upper level TROF will swing thru our region dry on Saturday,
with forcing not strong enough and a column not moist enough, as the
main storm center passes well to our south, and should produce
nothing more than clouds that will decrease as the day wears on.
Otherwise, SW winds left in its wake will result in an above average
temp day, with maxes from the mid 40s to mid 50s favored, or at or
above the higher MAV MOS.
A more direct hit from a decently strong upper level disturbance
will occur late Sunday and into Sunday night, but will still be
fighting a largely dry column. Have added low PoPs for most of our
region for light rain for Sunday afternoon, and areas south and east
of STL metro heading into Sunday evening.
This initial disturbance Sunday will also correspond to the leading
edge of a brief shot of Arctic air that will begin later Sunday
night and continue into Monday night, resulting in scattered snow
showers over much of the region. Accums will be hard to nail down
this far out and due to the nature of the pcpn, but could see spotty
accums up to an inch from this event. Needless to say, the leading
edge of the Arctic airmass will also be accompanied by strong gusty
northwest winds, clouds, and stagnant daytime temps on Monday as CAA
remains strong thru the day.
Models are less clear, but it appears a second clipper-like system
may drop down for the Tuesday night or Wednesday timeframe, but the
signal is not enough, especially for this type of system, to place
mentionable PoPs in the forecast just yet.
Otherwise, NW upper flow continues thru all of next week and will
leave the door open for additional cold air intrusions, one of which
is slated to drop down Thursday or Friday.
Overall a period of mainly below average temps separated briefly by
periods of above average temps, with little in the way of
precipitation.
TES
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2016
Dry and VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Light
easterly winds will shift to the southwest early on Saturday
morning as high pressure moves off to the east.
Specifics for KSTL: Dry and VFR conditions are expected the next
30 hours.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
918 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RADAR LIGHTING UP A BIT THIS MORNING WITH ECHOES/RAINSHOWERS
QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE GLASGOW AREA. THE HRRR TRACKS THESE INTO
THE SE ZONES ABOUT NOON SO INCREASED POPS THERE BUT SHOULD QUICKLY
EXIT INTO ND SHORTLY AFTER NOON AS THEY ARE MOVING AT ABOUT 60
MPH!
REST OF FORECAST LOOKED GOOD. TFJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE BASE OF A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AT 12Z THIS
MORNING. IT THEN MOVES FULLY INTO NE MONTANA BEFORE NOON TODAY.
VERY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY RISE LATE IN THE MORNING
AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY AN IMPRESSIVE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE AND RAPIDLY INCREASING
LAPSE RATES FOR STRONG MIXING AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER. 50+KT WINDS
AT 700 MB SHOULD EFFICIENTLY MIX TO THE SURFACE. THE EFFECT WILL
BE FURTHER AMPLIFIED BY WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST FOR MORE
INFLUENCE FROM CAA. THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE ENTRAINED WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS IT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SOME SNOW
MIXING IN TONIGHT BEFORE THE SHOWERS DEPART. THE VERY EFFICIENT
MIXING AND STRONG WINDS WILL FULLY SCOUR OUT THE COOL AIR AT THE
SURFACE TO DRIVE HIGHS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE BY AROUND +20F. EXPECT
UPPER 40S AND EVEN HIGHS AROUND 50F IN PLACES.
SUNDAY WILL SEE THE WIND BEGINNING TO DIMINISH FROM THE WEST...
THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL NUDGE THE COLD BOUNDARY TO THE EAST TO
ALLOW WARMING FROM THE WEST. WITH THE OVERNIGHT CAA...TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP BY AROUND 10F FROM SATURDAY.
HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SINCE GFS IS PEGGING 850 MB
WIND SPEEDS AT 60+ MPH WITH LAPSE RATES OF 6 TO 8 C/KM THAT COULD
MECHANICALLY BRING SOME OF THESE HIGH WINDS TO THE SURFACE AS
GUSTS. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS COULD REACH UP TO 40 MPH EASILY
WITH THIS SYSTEM IN MOST PLACES. THE END TIMES FOR THE WARNING
SEGMENTS ARE NOT YET CERTAIN. SO THIS WILL BE MONITORED.
SCT
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES OVER THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...GRADUALLY SHIFTING WITH ANOTHER TROF PUSHING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY NEXT WEEKEND.
LEE TROF/QUASI ARCTIC BOUNDARY SETS UP OVER EASTERN MONTANA WITH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A FEW RIPPLES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH COLDER
AIRMASS EAST OF THE BOUNDARY...SHOWERS SHOULD GENERALLY BE SNOW.
EBERT
&&
.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: VFR WITH MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWERED CLOUD BASES DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR: BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVAL STRONG WINDS
OVERHEAD AND WEAK WINDS AT THE SURFACE UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION
WILL LEAD TO INCREASED LLWS FROM THE WEST.
HIGH WINDS: AFTER THE FRONTS PASSAGE WEST WINDS WILL RISE TO 25 TO
35 KTS WITH BRIEF GUSTS UPWARDS OF 45 TO 50 KTS AT TIMES. THIS
WILL CAUSE BLOWING ISSUES FOR UNSECURED OBJECT ON AIRPORT GROUNDS.
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL CALM ABOUT 10 KTS OVERALL BUT MAY SPIKE AGAIN
NEAR SUN UP AND NEAR THE END OF THE CYCLE SUNDAY. GAH
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...GARFIELD...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...PETROLEUM...
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...DANIELS...DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...MCCONE...
NORTHERN VALLEY...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...WESTERN
ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1135 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016
THERE ARE SEVERAL SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS...LIGHT SNOW ENDING
THIS EVENING...POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT AND THEN STRONG WINDS
WITH LIGHT SNOW/BLOWING SNOW SUNDAY/MONDAY.
AMPLIFIED MID TROPOSPHERIC PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS.
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NOW WILL PUSH EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND SNOW WILL END. RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BUILD EAST
INTO THE AREA BUT WEAKEN THROUGH SATURDAY. BY LATE SATURDAY...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA BACK INTO
WYOMING. THE PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AGAIN SUNDAY AS A RIDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND THAT SHORTWAVE
INTENSIFIES AND FORMS A CLOSED LOW OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.
TONIGHT...WARM FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE AREA BUT WINDS WILL DROP OFF. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...THERE
MAY BE SOME FOG. EXPERIMENTAL HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN HINTING AT DENSE
FOG FORMATION FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS...STARTING NORTH OF
THE PLATTE RIVER PRIOR TO 06Z. THAT MODEL THEN EXPANDS THE FOG AND
KEEPS IT INTO MID MORNING SATURDAY. THIS ALL DEPENDS ON CLOUD COVER.
THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO BRING CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME AT LEAST SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND DECOUPLING OF WINDS OVER DEEPER SNOW COVER. SURFACE
WINDS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST ARE NOT ALL THAT FAVORABLE FOR FOG
LOCALLY...BUT AIRMASS BEHIND THIS TROUGH/WIND SHIFT IS FAIRLY
MOIST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE VERY TRICKY...WITH SNOW
AND FOG POTENTIAL. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS.
SATURDAY...CLOUDS AND FOG MAY LINGER IN THE MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN IOWA AND EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT AND SHOULD GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IF CLOUDS DECREASE AS EXPECTED AND WE CAN GET
SOME SUNSHINE...HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SHOULD BE REALIZED.
AREAS WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA SHOULD REACH INTO
THE MID 40S.
LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE (POSSIBLY INTO WIND ADVISORY CATEGORY) AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LAG A BIT. WILL KEEP SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW. BEST CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW WILL STAY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT INCLUDED
SOME LOW POPS IN OUR AREA...WITH SOME MOISTURE WRAPPING INTO THE
AREA. LAPSE RATES STEEPEN BELOW 750 IN GFS AND NAM FCST SOUNDINGS
SO THE IDEA OF SNOW SHOWERS STILL SEEMS PRUDENT. SNOW CHANCES WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW COULD BECOME PROBLEMATIC
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL MONITOR THIS FOR LATER FORECASTS AND MAY
NEED TO HIT HARDER WITH SOME TYPE OF ADVISORY LATER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016
LITTLE OR NO PCPN IS EXPECTED IN THIS PERIOD...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A BIT FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
STRONG 500 MB RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA
TUESDAY AND OUR AREA WILL BE IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW. THAT RIDGE
SHOULD DEAMPLIFY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN BECOMING
MORE ZONAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016
BATCH OF MVFR CIGS SHOULD CLEAR KLNK AND KOMA TAF SITES BY 10Z.
MVFR VSBYS IN FOG ARE LIKELY THROUGH 16Z OR SO AT KOMA AND PERHAPS
KLNK...BUT SOME LOWER VSBYS AT OR BELOW 1SM ARE POSSIBLE AT KOMA.
ALL AREAS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY 18Z AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DERGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
310 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...WITH A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEVELOPING MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH WEAK 5H VORT AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEAST OF THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE PROGGED TO STREAM ACROSS
NORTHERN NY INTO VT BTWN 00-06Z TONIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST.
MEANWHILE...THE 925MB TO 850MB FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AT 25 TO 35 KNOTS...HELPING TO ADVECT SOME ADDITIONAL LAKE MOISTURE
INTO THE DACKS AND EXTREME NORTHERN GREENS NEAR JAY PEAK. BOTTOM
LINE EXPECT ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH CHC/LIKELY POPS
AND ACCUMULATIONS A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR TWO BY MORNING. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT LATEST
VIS SHOWS SOME CLEARING WITH LOWER SFC DWPTS OVER SOUTHERN VT NEAR
VSF. WILL MENTION VALUES ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE MAINLY IN
THE 20S TO NEAR 30...WITH SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE COOLER VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...VERY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
AS WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR CWA...AND BEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL
MENTION CHC OF FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OTHERWISE
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. PROGGED 925MB TO 850MB THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM TODAY...SO EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 20S MOUNTAINS TO MID/UPPER 30S WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE NOTED
NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AFTER 15Z...WHICH
MAY KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER...MID 30S.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN GETS VERY
ACTIVE AND COMPLICATED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT IMPACTS ACROSS OUR REGION. THE BETTER SYNOPTIC
SCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SURFACE LOW PRES DEVELOPING
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN QUICKLY TRACKING
NORTHEAST WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK WITH NO IMPACTS FOR
OUR REGION...OTHER THAN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH TROF.
GIVEN THE LACK OF A BLOCKING HIGH PRES SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTH
ATLANTIC AND ORIENTATION/PLACEMENT OF STRONG JET WINDS ALOFT...THESE
TWO SOLUTIONS SEEM REASONABLE. HOWEVER...HAVE NOTED THE NAM 4KM
ALONG WITH THE SREF AND GEM...(I KNOW NOT THE BEST MODELS FOR
CAPTURING LARGE SCALE SYSTEMS) SHOW A TRACK SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST...WITH A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR OUR CWA LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THESE SOLUTIONS SHOW A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROF PULLING BACK 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ASSOCIATED
WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZONE. THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE...ALONG WITH
AN INVERTED TROF LIKE FEATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS ARE NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN POINT THE EXACT LOCATION AT THIS TIME...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH FORECASTER CONTINUITY AND MENTION CHC POPS WEST TO
LIKELY EAST. THIS THINKING IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST SUPERBLEND POP
FIELDS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE GIVEN THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS.
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 20S TO MID 30S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S. STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATER IN THE
WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 304 PM EST SATURDAY...LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND GIVE THE
NORTH COUNTRY A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENHANCED AT TIMES BY A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WHICH MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT WITH
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OR ANY BOUNDARIES/FRONTS TO ENHANCE
FORCING...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION THAT WE DO RECEIVE DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MINOR. MORE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT WE ARE
LIKELY TO SEE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR. ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN GFS WITH THE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR...BUT
BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THAT MIN TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO GO BELOW ZERO
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEXT WEEKEND MOSTLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AT MSS THROUGH ABOUT 21Z...AND AT SLK THROUGH 00Z. MAINLY
VFR CIGS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS REST OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE AT BTV/PBG
WHERE BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SHOWS SLK/MSS
HOLDING ON TO MVFR CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED CHANCE FOR A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. COLD FRONT MAY
BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN TAF SITES 10-18Z SUNDAY...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS FROM MPV SOUTH.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
20 KTS AT MSS/SLK/BTV. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS
OVERNIGHT AND THEN TURN LIGHT NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
18Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
305 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
PASS WELL NORTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL PRODUCED SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS OF NEW
YORK AND VERMONT. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET
WITH SEASONABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK EXPECT
A PATTERN THAT WILL SEE OFF AND ON LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE MID
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1227 PM EST SATURDAY...RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS
NORTHERN NY AND PARTS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. EXPECTING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE NOTED SOME
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH HIGHER COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY FIELDS ON
THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED BTV 4KM AFTER 18Z. SO A COUPLE OF BURST ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE VERY DRY...SO BEST POTENTIAL
OF A LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPS WILL WARM
INTO THE UPPER 20S MOUNTAINS TO MID/UPPER 30S VALLEYS.
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VT...ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS.
SURFACE OBS SHOW MSS DOWN TO 1/2SM IN MODERATE SNOW WITH HIGHGATE
BRIEFLY DOWN TO 3/4SM IN LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
GENERAL LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. WATER VAPOR SHOWS BETTER
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND 5H SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS OUR
REGION THIS MORNING...WITH GENERAL DRYING AND LESS DYNAMICS ALOFT.
HOWEVER...WITH COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH TROF AND SOME SURFACE
WARMING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WILL HELP TO PRODUCE STEEPENING
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
CHC/LIKELY WITH ANY ACCUMULATION AN INCH OR LESS. OTHERWISE...ONLY
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN THE VALLEYS WITH TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 20S MOUNTAINS TO MID/UPPER 30S IN THE
WARMER VALLEYS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 326 AM EST SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS EAST OF JAMES BAY IN CANADA. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE
OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE 925-800MB
FLOW TURNS WESTERLY AND WE COULD SEE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS
DEVELOP ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE EXPECT THE STRATUS DECK THAT GENERATED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD INTO VERMONT AND SEE GENERALLY
CLOUD SKIES THROUGH THE DAY.
THE SURFACE FRONT FROM THE LOW OVER JAMES BAY DOESN`T LOOK TO
MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO VERMONT OR NEW YORK BUT THERE WILL BE A
WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT RIDES ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AS IT
CROSSES INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK BY LATE MORNING EXPECT A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH FORECAST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL BRING USHER IN LIGHT WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND BRING 925MB TEMPS UP BY AROUND 4-5 DEGC INTO THE
-3C TO -5C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SUPPORTS DAYTIME HIGHS INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE FLOW THIS EVENING WILL TURN MORE WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT JUST TO THE NORTH NEAR
MONTREAL. THERE IS SOME BUST POTENTIAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IF SOME
OF THAT SHALLOW AIR GETS TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH NEW YORK
AND CANADA. I DONT EXPECT IT TO HAPPEN SO THE COLDER AIR SHOULD
STAY JUST TO THE NORTH AND OUR LOWS THIS EVENING WILL BE IN THE
MID 20S WHICH IS WELL ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS OF SINGLE DIGITS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 402 AM EST SATURDAY...MODELS SHOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SUNDAY.
MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WITH THIS WEAKENING
FRONT AND GENERALLY WASH IT OUT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HAVE
JUST KEPT IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY
EARLY SUNDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM
QUEBEC SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL LIES
BETWEEN 2 SYSTEMS. A DEEPENING OCEAN STORM THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST SUNDAY AND MOVES NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL
SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK (40N 70W) EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL LIE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS
THE REGION WILL LIE IN THE MIDDLE BETWEEN 2 SYSTEMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 304 PM EST SATURDAY...LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND GIVE THE
NORTH COUNTRY A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENHANCED AT TIMES BY A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WHICH MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT WITH
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OR ANY BOUNDARIES/FRONTS TO ENHANCE
FORCING...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION THAT WE DO RECEIVE DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MINOR. MORE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT WE ARE
LIKELY TO SEE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR. ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN GFS WITH THE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR...BUT
BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THAT MIN TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO GO BELOW ZERO
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEXT WEEKEND MOSTLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AT MSS THROUGH ABOUT 21Z...AND AT SLK THROUGH 00Z. MAINLY
VFR CIGS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS REST OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE AT BTV/PBG
WHERE BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SHOWS SLK/MSS
HOLDING ON TO MVFR CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED CHANCE FOR A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. COLD FRONT MAY
BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN TAF SITES 10-18Z SUNDAY...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS FROM MPV SOUTH.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
20 KTS AT MSS/SLK/BTV. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS
OVERNIGHT AND THEN TURN LIGHT NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
18Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1250 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
PASS WELL NORTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL PRODUCED SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS OF NEW
YORK AND VERMONT. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET
WITH SEASONABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK EXPECT
A PATTERN THAT WILL SEE OFF AND ON LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE MID
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1227 PM EST SATURDAY...RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS
NORTHERN NY AND PARTS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. EXPECTING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE NOTED SOME
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH HIGHER COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY FIELDS ON
THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED BTV 4KM AFTER 18Z. SO A COUPLE OF BURST ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE VERY DRY...SO BEST POTENTIAL
OF A LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPS WILL WARM
INTO THE UPPER 20S MOUNTAINS TO MID/UPPER 30S VALLEYS.
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VT...ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS.
SURFACE OBS SHOW MSS DOWN TO 1/2SM IN MODERATE SNOW WITH HIGHGATE
BRIEFLY DOWN TO 3/4SM IN LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
GENERAL LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. WATER VAPOR SHOWS BETTER
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND 5H SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS OUR
REGION THIS MORNING...WITH GENERAL DRYING AND LESS DYNAMICS ALOFT.
HOWEVER...WITH COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH TROF AND SOME SURFACE
WARMING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WILL HELP TO PRODUCE STEEPENING
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
CHC/LIKELY WITH ANY ACCUMULATION AN INCH OR LESS. OTHERWISE...ONLY
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN THE VALLEYS WITH TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 20S MOUNTAINS TO MID/UPPER 30S IN THE
WARMER VALLEYS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 326 AM EST SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS EAST OF JAMES BAY IN CANADA. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE
OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE 925-800MB
FLOW TURNS WESTERLY AND WE COULD SEE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS
DEVELOP ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE EXPECT THE STRATUS DECK THAT GENERATED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD INTO VERMONT AND SEE GENERALLY
CLOUD SKIES THROUGH THE DAY.
THE SURFACE FRONT FROM THE LOW OVER JAMES BAY DOESN`T LOOK TO
MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO VERMONT OR NEW YORK BUT THERE WILL BE A
WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT RIDES ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AS IT
CROSSES INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK BY LATE MORNING EXPECT A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH FORECAST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL BRING USHER IN LIGHT WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND BRING 925MB TEMPS UP BY AROUND 4-5 DEGC INTO THE
-3C TO -5C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SUPPORTS DAYTIME HIGHS INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE FLOW THIS EVENING WILL TURN MORE WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT JUST TO THE NORTH NEAR
MONTREAL. THERE IS SOME BUST POTENTIAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IF SOME
OF THAT SHALLOW AIR GETS TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH NEW YORK
AND CANADA. I DONT EXPECT IT TO HAPPEN SO THE COLDER AIR SHOULD
STAY JUST TO THE NORTH AND OUR LOWS THIS EVENING WILL BE IN THE
MID 20S WHICH IS WELL ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS OF SINGLE DIGITS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EST SATURDAY...MODELS SHOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SUNDAY.
MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WITH THIS WEAKENING
FRONT AND GENERALLY WASH IT OUT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HAVE
JUST KEPT IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY
EARLY SUNDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM
QUEBEC SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL LIES
BETWEEN 2 SYSTEMS. A DEEPENING OCEAN STORM THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST SUNDAY AND MOVES NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL
SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK (40N 70W) EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL LIE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS
THE REGION WILL LIE IN THE MIDDLE BETWEEN 2 SYSTEMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EST SATURDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND GIVE THE NORTH COUNTRY A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND WILL
BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR IN WHAT HAS BEEN
A RELATIVELY MILD WINTER. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SUGGEST THIS
OUTBREAK OF ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE FROM FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AT MSS THROUGH ABOUT 21Z...AND AT SLK THROUGH 00Z. MAINLY
VFR CIGS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS REST OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE AT BTV/PBG
WHERE BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SHOWS SLK/MSS
HOLDING ON TO MVFR CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED CHANCE FOR A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. COLD FRONT MAY
BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN TAF SITES 10-18Z SUNDAY...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS FROM MPV SOUTH.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
20 KTS AT MSS/SLK/BTV. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS
OVERNIGHT AND THEN TURN LIGHT NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
18Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1232 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
PASS WELL NORTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL PRODUCED SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS OF NEW
YORK AND VERMONT. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET
WITH SEASONABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK EXPECT
A PATTERN THAT WILL SEE OFF AND ON LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE MID
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1227 PM EST SATURDAY...RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS
NORTHERN NY AND PARTS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. EXPECTING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE NOTED SOME
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH HIGHER COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY FIELDS ON
THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED BTV 4KM AFTER 18Z. SO A COUPLE OF BURST ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE VERY DRY...SO BEST POTENTIAL
OF A LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPS WILL WARM
INTO THE UPPER 20S MOUNTAINS TO MID/UPPER 30S VALLEYS.
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VT...ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS.
SURFACE OBS SHOW MSS DOWN TO 1/2SM IN MODERATE SNOW WITH HIGHGATE
BRIEFLY DOWN TO 3/4SM IN LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
GENERAL LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. WATER VAPOR SHOWS BETTER
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND 5H SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS OUR
REGION THIS MORNING...WITH GENERAL DRYING AND LESS DYNAMICS ALOFT.
HOWEVER...WITH COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH TROF AND SOME SURFACE
WARMING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WILL HELP TO PRODUCE STEEPENING
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
CHC/LIKELY WITH ANY ACCUMULATION AN INCH OR LESS. OTHERWISE...ONLY
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN THE VALLEYS WITH TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 20S MOUNTAINS TO MID/UPPER 30S IN THE
WARMER VALLEYS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 326 AM EST SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS EAST OF JAMES BAY IN CANADA. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE
OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE 925-800MB
FLOW TURNS WESTERLY AND WE COULD SEE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS
DEVELOP ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE EXPECT THE STRATUS DECK THAT GENERATED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD INTO VERMONT AND SEE GENERALLY
CLOUD SKIES THROUGH THE DAY.
THE SURFACE FRONT FROM THE LOW OVER JAMES BAY DOESN`T LOOK TO
MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO VERMONT OR NEW YORK BUT THERE WILL BE A
WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT RIDES ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AS IT
CROSSES INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK BY LATE MORNING EXPECT A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH FORECAST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL BRING USHER IN LIGHT WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND BRING 925MB TEMPS UP BY AROUND 4-5 DEGC INTO THE
-3C TO -5C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SUPPORTS DAYTIME HIGHS INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE FLOW THIS EVENING WILL TURN MORE WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT JUST TO THE NORTH NEAR
MONTREAL. THERE IS SOME BUST POTENTIAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IF SOME
OF THAT SHALLOW AIR GETS TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH NEW YORK
AND CANADA. I DONT EXPECT IT TO HAPPEN SO THE COLDER AIR SHOULD
STAY JUST TO THE NORTH AND OUR LOWS THIS EVENING WILL BE IN THE
MID 20S WHICH IS WELL ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS OF SINGLE DIGITS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EST SATURDAY...MODELS SHOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SUNDAY.
MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WITH THIS WEAKENING
FRONT AND GENERALLY WASH IT OUT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HAVE
JUST KEPT IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY
EARLY SUNDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM
QUEBEC SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL LIES
BETWEEN 2 SYSTEMS. A DEEPENING OCEAN STORM THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST SUNDAY AND MOVES NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL
SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK (40N 70W) EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL LIE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS
THE REGION WILL LIE IN THE MIDDLE BETWEEN 2 SYSTEMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EST SATURDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND GIVE THE NORTH COUNTRY A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND WILL
BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR IN WHAT HAS BEEN
A RELATIVELY MILD WINTER. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SUGGEST THIS
OUTBREAK OF ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE FROM FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY VFR WITH THE
EXCEPTION AT SLK WHERE SHOW SHOWERS HAVE REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO
IFR AND CEILINGS TO MVFR. CURRENT RAP GUIDANCE SHOWS SLK HOLDING
ON TO LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH OFF AND ON
SHOWERS. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO MSS BY SHORTLY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 15-16Z BRIEFLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS. ELSEWHERE ANTICIPATE A STRATUS DECK HOLDING ON
AROUND 6000-7500 FEET. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AT
KMSS/KBTV.
OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
12Z SUN-18Z SUN...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.
18Z SUN-18Z MON...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.
18Z MON ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
927 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
PASS WELL NORTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL PRODUCED SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS OF NEW
YORK AND VERMONT. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET
WITH SEASONABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK EXPECT
A PATTERN THAT WILL SEE OFF AND ON LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE MID
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 921 AM EST SATURDAY...HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS
ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
VT...ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE OBS SHOW MSS DOWN TO 1/2SM
IN MODERATE SNOW WITH HIGHGATE BRIEFLY DOWN TO 3/4SM IN LIGHT SNOW
THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH GENERAL LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS BETTER MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND 5H SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING...WITH GENERAL DRYING
AND LESS DYNAMICS ALOFT. HOWEVER...WITH COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH TROF AND SOME SURFACE WARMING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WILL
HELP TO PRODUCE STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CHC/LIKELY WITH ANY ACCUMULATION
AN INCH OR LESS. OTHERWISE...ONLY A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES IN THE VALLEYS WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 20S
MOUNTAINS TO MID/UPPER 30S IN THE WARMER VALLEYS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 326 AM EST SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS EAST OF JAMES BAY IN CANADA. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE
OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE 925-800MB
FLOW TURNS WESTERLY AND WE COULD SEE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS
DEVELOP ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE EXPECT THE STRATUS DECK THAT GENERATED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD INTO VERMONT AND SEE GENERALLY
CLOUD SKIES THROUGH THE DAY.
THE SURFACE FRONT FROM THE LOW OVER JAMES BAY DOESN`T LOOK TO
MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO VERMONT OR NEW YORK BUT THERE WILL BE A
WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT RIDES ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AS IT
CROSSES INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK BY LATE MORNING EXPECT A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH FORECAST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL BRING USHER IN LIGHT WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND BRING 925MB TEMPS UP BY AROUND 4-5 DEGC INTO THE
-3C TO -5C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SUPPORTS DAYTIME HIGHS INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE FLOW THIS EVENING WILL TURN MORE WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT JUST TO THE NORTH NEAR
MONTREAL. THERE IS SOME BUST POTENTIAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IF SOME
OF THAT SHALLOW AIR GETS TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH NEW YORK
AND CANADA. I DONT EXPECT IT TO HAPPEN SO THE COLDER AIR SHOULD
STAY JUST TO THE NORTH AND OUR LOWS THIS EVENING WILL BE IN THE
MID 20S WHICH IS WELL ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS OF SINGLE DIGITS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EST SATURDAY...MODELS SHOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SUNDAY.
MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WITH THIS WEAKENING
FRONT AND GENERALLY WASH IT OUT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HAVE
JUST KEPT IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY
EARLY SUNDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM
QUEBEC SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL LIES
BETWEEN 2 SYSTEMS. A DEEPENING OCEAN STORM THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST SUNDAY AND MOVES NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL
SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK (40N 70W) EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL LIE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS
THE REGION WILL LIE IN THE MIDDLE BETWEEN 2 SYSTEMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EST SATURDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND GIVE THE NORTH COUNTRY A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND WILL
BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR IN WHAT HAS BEEN
A RELATIVELY MILD WINTER. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SUGGEST THIS
OUTBREAK OF ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE FROM FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY VFR WITH THE
EXCEPTION AT SLK WHERE SHOW SHOWERS HAVE REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO
IFR AND CEILINGS TO MVFR. CURRENT RAP GUIDANCE SHOWS SLK HOLDING
ON TO LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH OFF AND ON
SHOWERS. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO MSS BY SHORTLY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 15-16Z BRIEFLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS. ELSEWHERE ANTICIPATE A STRATUS DECK HOLDING ON
AROUND 6000-7500 FEET. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AT
KMSS/KBTV.
OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
12Z SUN-18Z SUN...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.
18Z SUN-18Z MON...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.
18Z MON ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
651 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
PASS WELL NORTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL PRODUCED SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS OF NEW
YORK AND VERMONT. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET
WITH SEASONABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK EXPECT
A PATTERN THAT WILL SEE OFF AND ON LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE MID
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 643 AM EST SATURDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. CURRENT REFLECTIVITY`S SHOW THE
SNOW DEVELOPING AND SPREADING UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. DID
BOOST THE CHANGE FOR SNOW SHOWERS UP A BIT TO MATCH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO
CHANGES NEEDED. ENJOY THE START TO YOUR WEEKEND.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 326 AM EST SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS EAST OF JAMES BAY IN CANADA. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE
OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE 925-800MB
FLOW TURNS WESTERLY AND WE COULD SEE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS
DEVELOP ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE EXPECT THE STRATUS DECK THAT GENERATED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD INTO VERMONT AND SEE GENERALLY
CLOUD SKIES THROUGH THE DAY.
THE SURFACE FRONT FROM THE LOW OVER JAMES BAY DOESN`T LOOK TO
MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO VERMONT OR NEW YORK BUT THERE WILL BE A
WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT RIDES ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AS IT
CROSSES INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK BY LATE MORNING EXPECT A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH FORECAST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL BRING USHER IN LIGHT WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND BRING 925MB TEMPS UP BY AROUND 4-5 DEGC INTO THE
-3C TO -5C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SUPPORTS DAYTIME HIGHS INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE FLOW THIS EVENING WILL TURN MORE WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT JUST TO THE NORTH NEAR
MONTREAL. THERE IS SOME BUST POTENTIAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IF SOME
OF THAT SHALLOW AIR GETS TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH NEW YORK
AND CANADA. I DONT EXPECT IT TO HAPPEN SO THE COLDER AIR SHOULD
STAY JUST TO THE NORTH AND OUR LOWS THIS EVENING WILL BE IN THE
MID 20S WHICH IS WELL ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS OF SINGLE DIGITS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EST SATURDAY...MODELS SHOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SUNDAY.
MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WITH THIS WEAKENING
FRONT AND GENERALLY WASH IT OUT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HAVE
JUST KEPT IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY
EARLY SUNDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM
QUEBEC SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL LIES
BETWEEN 2 SYSTEMS. A DEEPENING OCEAN STORM THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST SUNDAY AND MOVES NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL
SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK (40N 70W) EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL LIE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS
THE REGION WILL LIE IN THE MIDDLE BETWEEN 2 SYSTEMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EST SATURDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND GIVE THE NORTH COUNTRY A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND WILL
BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR IN WHAT HAS BEEN
A RELATIVELY MILD WINTER. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SUGGEST THIS
OUTBREAK OF ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE FROM FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY VFR WITH THE
EXCEPTION AT SLK WHERE SHOW SHOWERS HAVE REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO
IFR AND CEILINGS TO MVFR. CURRENT RAP GUIDANCE SHOWS SLK HOLDING
ON TO LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH OFF AND ON
SHOWERS. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO MSS BY SHORTLY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 15-16Z BRIEFLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS. ELSEWHERE ANTICIPATE A STRATUS DECK HOLDING ON
AROUND 6000-7500 FEET. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AT
KMSS/KBTV.
OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
12Z SUN-18Z SUN...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.
18Z SUN-18Z MON...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.
18Z MON ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
915 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
WE CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND WARNING EVERYWHERE...AND REPLACED IT
WITH A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS CENTRAL ND BASED ON RECENT LAMP OUTPUT
AND THE 00-02 RAP ITERATIONS. THOSE RAP SIMULATIONS MAINTAIN WINDS
OF 40-45 KT AT 0.5 KM ACROSS CENTRAL ND TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY FROM ROLLA TO RUGBY...STEELE...JAMESTOWN AND OAKES. WE
THUS CARRIED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LATTER AREAS UNTIL 22 UTC
MONDAY...WHILE ONLY RUNNING IT THROUGH 12 UTC FOR THE REST OF ITS
GEOGRAPHIC EXTENT.
FORECAST WIND SPEEDS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO ALIGN WITH OUR MOST
RECENT THINKING...BUT OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE GRIDDED FORECAST TO BLEND TO RECENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND
SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
WINDS ARE DECREASING OVER WESTERN ND AS THE HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT
EASES...AND AS LOW-LEVEL STABILITY BEGINS INCREASING AS A RESULT
OF THE DIMINISHING WINDS THEN SPEEDS WILL DECREASE EVEN MORE. WE
THOUGHT ABOUT CANCELLING THE HIGH WIND WARNING OVER NORTHWESTERN
ND WITH THIS UPDATE...BUT GUSTS ARE STILL EXCEEDING 40 MPH IN THE
CROSBY AREA SO WE WILL REVISIT THAT AGAIN A BIT LATER. WE SEE NO
REASON WHY THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF ND WILL
NOT BE DONE BY ITS PLANNED 03 UTC EXPIRATION AT THE LATEST BASED
ON TRENDS THOUGH.
AS FOR THE FORECAST...IT IS LARGELY ON TRACK...SO CHANGES WITH
THIS UPDATE WERE ONLY TO BETTER REFLECT RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW NEAR THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONT DIVING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN
VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER THE CWA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
UPPER LOW STACKED OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD WITH RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS LEADING TO FAST NORTHERLY FLOW OVER AND TO THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW AREAS
OF SNOW CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE OCCURRING.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH OVER THE FAR WEST THIS EVENING...THOUGH OVER REMAINING
PARTS OF THE AREA ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MIXING OF 50-60 KT GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL SLIGHT DIMINISHING OF THE WINDS BY
DAYBREAK. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
ON MONDAY...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA WITH FAST
NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
WITH MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...THOUGH STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT WILL HAVE SOME TROUBLE MIXING DOWN WITH NEUTRAL TO WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
MONDAY EVENING THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
WINDS THIS WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US AND A STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THIS PATTERN BECOMES
SEMI-PERMANENT ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND DEFINES THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL LEAVE A BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE
RELATIVELY FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
THIS WILL MEAN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION. ONE CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...ANOTHER
CHANCE WEDNESDAY...AND ANOTHER NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS MENTIONED
MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A RAIN SNOW
MIX WEST.
QUITE A BIT OF TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE THIS
WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S SOUTHWEST...20S AND 30S
CENTRAL...AND TEENS AND 20S EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY TO
THE 20S SOUTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 915 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KT OVER WESTERN AND 45 KT ACROSS
CENTRAL ND TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BY MONDAY....BUT GUSTS
TO 40 KT WILL LINGER IN THE KJMS AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL IN WESTERN ND THROUGH THE 00 UTC
TAF VALID TIME...BUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL
ND TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A FEW LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IN CENTRAL ND THIS EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR NDZ003-004-
011-012-019>022-034-035-042-045-046.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ005-013-023-025-036-
037-047-048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1105 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN ONTARIO.
THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC SATURDAY. SUNDAY A CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. MONDAY THE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS MICHIGAN AND INTO OHIO.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVE ALMOST MADE IT TO THE PA BORDER. THIS WILL HOLD TEMPS
A LITTLE FROM LAST NIGHT. MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES.
PREVIOUS...HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS ACROSS MICHIGAN AND
INTO NORTHERN INDIANA IN AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF
A WEAK TROUGH. THE NAM ALSO SHOWS A SHORT WAVE IN THE GENERAL AREA
AS WELL. FOLLOWING 850MB MOISTURE WHICH IS A GOOD PROXY SO
FAR...THIS MOISTURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WILL USE THE NAM12 850MB RH AS A STARTING TEMPLATE FOR SKY COVER
GRIDS TONIGHT. THE HRRR BRINGS IN SOME PATCHY FLURRIES BUT FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE DRY. WILL GO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF MAV TEMP GUIDANCE
FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY MORNING
THE WEAK TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST IN THE MORNING AS ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER TROUGH DROP TOWARD THE AREA. ALSO A SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS
SERN CANADA NORTH OF THE REGION. BEST MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF
THE AREA CLOSER TO THIS SYSTEM SO AM EXPECTING AT LEAST PARTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 40. SATURDAY NIGHT
WE SHOULD SEE WEAK WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COLD
FRONT FROM THE CANADIAN LOW STALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES.
SUNDAY ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN FROM
SCNTRL CANADA. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY
AND SHOULD BRING RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST TO BEGIN WITH BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT
WILL MOVE CHANCE POPS EAST AND INCREASE TO LIKELY WEST. HIGHS
ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINTER WILL BE RETURNING FOR NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR AREA
WIDE SNOW SHOWERS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES. CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MONDAY MAY BE
MARGINAL...AND WE MAY SEE A RA/SN MIX. IT WILL GET COLD ENOUGH BY
MONDAY NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE
CONFINED MORE TO THE SNOWBELT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW REORGANIZES
ITSELF AROUND JAMES BAY. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WE START TO SEE
SOME SPREAD IN THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
THE GFS THE COLDEST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK
TROUGH NOW INTO NW OHIO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST THE 4K-6K OVC DECK WILL BE
REPLACED BY MID LEVEL DECK.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SNOW.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE ON
SATURDAY TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AS A CLIPPER BRUSHES THE GREAT LAKES.
BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN TO DECREASE IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM WESTERN SUPERIOR. THIS LOW WILL STALL AND REMAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO BE STRONG THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES. DURING THIS PERIOD 20 TO 25 KNOTS LOOK COMMON.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB/OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
615 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ROTATING THROUGH
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH TRAILING SHORTWAVE SLIDING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS
INDICATING AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS DRIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
MID AND LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WITH THIS WAVE. WOULD EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO SLIDE OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AS
THE SHORTWAVE DRIFTS OFF INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA/SOUTHERN IOWA BY
EVENING. STILL SEEING SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THESE SLIDE INTO
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA DURING THE EVENING...THOUGH BEING
MAINLY INSTABILITY DRIVEN MAY BECOME LESS NUMEROUS BY MID EVENING.
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY HANDLED TODAYS SYSTEM VERY
POORLY...OVERESTIMATING QPF AMOUNTS AND MISPLACING PRECIPITATION TOO
FAR TO THE EAST. CURRENT EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AND RAP HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE ON CURRENT TRENDS SO FOLLOWED THEM MORE CLOSELY FOR THE
FORECAST INTO TONIGHT. WHAT HAS VERIFIED BETTER TODAY HAS BEEN THE
WINDS...WITH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET. EVEN
SO...VISIBILITIES HAVE REMAINED JUST EITHER SIDE OF 2 MILES EVEN
WHEN SNOW IS OCCURRING AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABOVE FREEZING AND
MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS SETTLED AND BECOME WET...PREVENTING ANY LOFTING
OF THE SNOW. AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...MODELS...IF THEY
CAN BE BELIEVED...STILL HINTING AT SOME DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW IN
OUR EAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER MINNESOTA ROTATES SOUTHWARD. THE QUESTION BECOMES WILL THIS
BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO AREAS IN THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNING. BASED ON TODAYS TRENDS WOULD THINK THAT IT
IS ON THE LOW END OF PROBABILITY...BUT AFTER COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES ELECTED TO LEAVE THE HEADLINE IN PLACE FOR
NOW...THOUGH DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE WARNING. DEPENDENT ON THE
TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING...FUTURE SHIFT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE
HEADLINE AS NEEDED. IN ANY EVENT...ANY SNOWFALL LOOKS TO REMAIN VERY
LIGHT...AT GENERALLY AROUND A HALF AN INCH OR LESS.
OTHERWISE...THE STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY...BEFORE TAPERING DOWNWARD FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
ANY VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST IN OUR FAR EAST THROUGH MID
DAY...THEN COME TO AND END BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
ON MONDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS FAR
EAST TO LOWER 30S FAR WEST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
AGAIN TODAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN RUNNING
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FAIRLY PRONOUNCED
SINE WAVE ACROSS THE CONUS...BRINGING COLD WEATHER TO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS...AND WARM WEATHER TO THE WESTERN HALF. WE WILL
BE STUCK IN-BETWEEN THESE TWO AIRMASS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
WEAK IMPULSES OF WARMER AIR TRYING TO MOVE EAST LEADING TO LIGHT
SNOW CHANCES. AGAIN...GIVEN THE SUBTLE NATURE OF THESE
WAVE...MODELS HAVING A HARD TIME FIGURING OUT WHEN THE BEST FOCUS
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND. CONSIDERABLE OSCILLATIONS IN
ECMWF/GFS GUIDANCE CONTINUES...AND AT THIS POINT...CAN ONLY SEE
HAVING SLIGHT TO LOW END CHC POPS. OF MORE CERTAINTY IS THAT NO
MAJOR SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEMS ARE ON THE HORIZON THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL
MINNESOTA MAY BE IN THE TEENS...WHILE READINGS IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA COULD CLIMB INTO THE 30S EACH DAY. TODAYS GUIDANCE HAS
NUDGED COLDER AIR A BIT FURTHER WESTWARD...SO AS A RESULT
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO TRENDED A COUPLE DEGREES COLDER FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. AFTER THIS CEILINGS WILL WAVER FROM VFR TO
MVFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR SDZ038-039-052>056-
058>062-064>071.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR SDZ040.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ050-057-063.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ098.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-097.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ081-089-090.
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR IAZ001-012-020-031.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR IAZ002-003-013-014-
021-022-032.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR NEZ013-014.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
406 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016
.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WERE
PRESENT ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK LEE SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM EASTERN COLORADO
INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS
MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE IS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR AND RAP PV ANALYSIS NOW
EMERGING ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM BROADENS AND MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION IT WILL FORCE A WEAK
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN NORTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS BY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT GIVEN ONLY WEAK
POST FRONTAL SURFACE PRESSURE RISES SHOWN IN SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINING QUITE DRY
AND ASIDE FROM SOME THIN CIRRUS PASSING THROUGH...NO CLOUDS OR
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BRB
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.. THIS PATTERN STAYS IN PLACE
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. AT THE SURFACE...LEESIDE TROUGHING SETS UP AND WE WILL
SEE A GRADUAL WARMING OF TEMPERATURES. BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE LOW 60S AND UPPER 70S.
WEST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES SOME ON THURSDAY...AND
BEGINS SHIFTING EASTWARD. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND FORCE A WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA FRIDAY...BUT WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES STILL REMAINING WARM AND NO APPRECIABLE COLD AIR
INTRUDING...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. SOME
QUESTION FOR THE WEEKEND IF MORE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAN APPROACH
THE AREA AND GIVE EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR POPS...BUT FOR NOW THINGS
LOOK DRY.
ELSENHEIMER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 56 27 52 25 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
BEAVER OK 54 24 50 25 48 / 0 0 0 0 0
BOISE CITY OK 54 25 48 21 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
BORGER TX 57 30 52 29 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
BOYS RANCH TX 55 24 51 24 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
CANYON TX 57 25 53 24 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLARENDON TX 56 27 54 29 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
DALHART TX 54 25 49 21 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
GUYMON OK 56 25 49 24 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
HEREFORD TX 56 25 53 23 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
LIPSCOMB TX 55 28 52 29 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
PAMPA TX 54 28 51 25 48 / 0 0 0 0 0
SHAMROCK TX 55 26 55 31 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
WELLINGTON TX 56 26 57 31 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
17/18
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1059 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016
.AVIATION...
WATCHING A COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH DRT BY THE START OF THE PERIOD AND AUSTIN
AND SAN ANTONIO BY 08 OR 09Z. THE BIGGEST CHANGE WILL BE A WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO...BUT ANY RAIN
WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND NOT AFFECT FLYING CATEGORY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS SATURDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLEAR AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS
AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/
UPDATE...COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE NORTH...
NEAR A BROWNWOOD TO SONORA LINE AT 10 PM. BASE OF MID AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING QUICKLY THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH
HEIGHT FALLS AND DPVA ASSISTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY SOUTHWARD INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR
MIDNIGHT THROUGH 2 AM...THEN RACING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA EAST OF I-35 2-5AM. THE SHOWERS WILL BE PRIMARILY LOCATED
NORTHEAST OF A LLANO TO SAN MARCOS TO CUERO LINE. RAP ANALYSIS
INDICATES -24 TO -27 DEG C 500MB TEMPS IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ENTERING THE EWX CWA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SLIVER OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...WHEN COMBINED WITH MODERATE DYNAMICAL FORCING...
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA. THE WINDOW WILL BE SHORT AND CHANCES
LOW...NEVERTHELESS ELECTED TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT MENTION OF THUNDER
IN NORTHEAST ZONES.
RAPID CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY IN THE MORNING. BREEZY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME GUSTS 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY AND
I-35 CORRIDOR...BEFORE SETTLING BACK DOWN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS
RH VALUES BOTTOM OUT. AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER HAS BEEN
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA AT THE PRESENT TIME. DRY AIR STILL EXISTS
AT THE SURFACE WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 20S AND 30S. WITH
SOUTH WINDS RETURNING WE SHOULD SEE MOISTURE VALUES CREEP UP EVER
SO SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH DEW POINTS
NEAR 40 DEGREES BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL HELP WITH THE
PRODUCTION OF A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP
AROUND MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. CURRENTLY...A
STRONG TROUGH CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DIGGING INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. AT THE SAME TIME...THE RESPONDING COLD FRONT
IS CURRENTLY IN WEST TEXAS. THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
HAS SLOWED A BIT AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW THERE TO BE BETTER UPPER
SUPPORT FOR SHOWER PRODUCTION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVERNIGHT. YESTERDAY...MODELS SHOWED THE MAIN LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH TO BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH LITTLE TO NO SHOWER
PRODUCTION ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. WITH THE TWO FEATURES BEING
SOMEWHAT BETTER ALIGNED AND WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...HIGH-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA ALONG THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA ACROSS THE EAST JUST AFTER
SUNRISE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL RANGE FROM A
TRACE TO ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BEHIND
THE FRONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER
TO UPPER 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS.
SHOULD SEE MANY AREAS REACH THE FREEZING MARK SUNDAY MORNING ONCE
AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE LONG-TERM FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DRY WEATHER WITH
ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BE DRY AS THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT DRIER AIR WITH DEWPOINTS
AROUND 10 DEGREES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES BY MONDAY
MORNING. WITH THE DRIER AIR AND WEAKER WINDS ON TUESDAY
MORNING...SHOULD SEE AREAS GET TO FREEZING ONCE AGAIN. WENT A
COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY MORNING GIVEN HOW DRY
THE AIR WILL BE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS SOUTH FLOW RETURNS...BUT ANOTHER DRY FRONT IS POSSIBLE BY
FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...
WITH CONTINUED DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOW. VALUES FOR THE MOST PART WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID-TEENS TO 30 PERCENT SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE LOWER VALUES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES WITH THE
HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE EAST. WITH THE LOW VALUES ACROSS THE
WEST...THE WIND FORECAST WILL BE HEAVILY MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EACH DAY. TOMORROW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LOWERING TO 10 TO 12 MPH ONCE THE 20 DEGREE OR LESS RH VALUES
OCCUR. GIVEN THIS ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE WESTERN LOCATIONS AND POSSIBLE THE NORTHWESTERN HILL
COUNTRY...OR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY ON SUNDAY WHERE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AND
THEN BE AREA WIDE ON MONDAY AS BREEZY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
CREATE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH EVEN DRIER AIR
EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 39 61 36 68 39 / 50 - 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 37 62 31 67 37 / 50 - 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 38 64 33 68 37 / 40 - 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 33 59 33 67 36 / 30 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 36 67 35 71 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 36 59 32 66 37 / 40 - 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 36 66 31 70 37 / 30 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 39 63 33 66 37 / 50 - 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 41 62 35 66 39 / 50 20 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 40 65 34 68 38 / 30 - 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 40 66 34 69 39 / 30 - 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
256 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. A
STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST BUT PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST SATURDAY...
UPPER LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EARLY TONIGHT LOOKS TO HEAD
EAST AND QUICKLY HELP DEEPEN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HEADING NORTH OFF THE
FLORIDA COAST TO ALONG THE GULF STREAM BY MORNING. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO FAN HIGH/MID CLOUDS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT
EARLY ON BEFORE THE SYSTEMS START TO PHASE AND ATTEMPT TO LEAN DEEPER
MOISTURE BACK INLAND. HOWEVER HOW FAR TO THE NW THIS OCCURS REMAINS
IFFY GIVEN SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE AND DEVELOPING SURFACE-7H NORTHERLY
FLOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIP WITHIN A TIGHT DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE BACK OF THE COASTAL LOW
JUST TO THE SE THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER THE GFS/CMC DO TOUCH THE FAR CORNER
OF THE PIEDMONT WITH A FLURRY/SPRINKLE WHILE THE HRRR AND LOCAL RNK-WRF
LOOK A BIT MORE OMINOUS IN BRINGING PRECIP JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA LATE.
SINCE THESE STILL APPEAR TO BE OUTLIERS ATTM WILL ONLY BEEF UP CLOUDS
SE LATE TONIGHT BUT STAY DRY FOR NOW PENDING LATER TRENDS. OTRW WILL
RUN WITH A PC FORECAST OVERALL FOR HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING...THEN
BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY SE THIRD OVERNIGHT. LOWS AGAIN DEPENDENT UPON
THE CLOUD CANOPY AS GIVEN LOW DEWPOINTS COULD QUICKLY FALL BACK INTO
THE 20S SOONER. THUS GOING ON THE COLDER SIDE OF MOS OVERALL WHICH
STILL SUPPORTS LOW/MID 20S MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 30 SE.
SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS HEADING ALONG THE GULF STREAM SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW CATCHES UP AND HELPS SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN. GUIDANCE AGAIN
DEPICTS AN INTENSE BUT VERY COMPACT SYSTEM OFFSHORE WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT BETWEEN CLOUDS AND DEFORMATION PRECIP ON THE NW SIDE OUT EAST.
HOWEVER STILL APPEARS THAT BETWEEN DRY AIR IN PLACE AND SOME EASTWARD
BOOT VIA THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE KICKER THAT MOST DEEP MOISTURE
SHOULD AGAIN STAY JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY MORNING BUT
SOMETHING STILL TO WATCH. THEREFORE PLAN TO STAY DRY WITH MORE SUN WEST
AND CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO MORE SUN DURING THE DAY EAST AS THE MID DECK
CANOPY SLOWLY FADES AND SHIFTS EAST. WINDS MAY TURN GUSTY AS WELL
SUNDAY OUT EAST ON THE PERIMETER OF THE CYCLONE WHILE OVERALL WARMING
ALOFT TAKES PLACE. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S WEST AND
PERHAPS SOME 50S JUST IN THE LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON THE EDGE OF THE
EASTERN CLOUD SHIELD PENDING HOW FAST IT EXITS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT SATURDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS
OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL SPIN UP AN INTENSE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. THE MODELS KEEP THE CWA DRY...BUT
SOME CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER OVER THE PIEDMONT. AS THE COASTAL LOW
EXITS ON MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC. A
POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD
PROVIDE LIGHT SNOW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING MONDAY. THE 12Z
ECMWF SEEMS TOO SLOW WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND THE
APPROACHING ARCTIC AIR...WHILE THE 12Z GFS MAY BE TOO BULLISH WITH
QPF. PRECIPITATION TYPE BECOMES MORE PROBLEMATIC IN THE
PIEDMONT...AS FLURRIES BEGIN OVER THE PIEDMONT BEFORE CHANGING TO
RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S. THE RAIN WOULD CHANGE
BACK TO FLURRIES BY MONDAY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES DROP.
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD BY TUESDAY...AS A DEEP
ARCTIC AIR MASS SPILLS OVER THE CWA. WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING
520 DAM AND MODEL SOUNDINGS PORTRAYING A NEARLY SATURATED CLOUD
LAYER UP TO -30 C FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY...THE
UPSLOPE SNOW MACHINE WILL BE HUMMING AT FULL POWER ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES. WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES APPEAR LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS
DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SO IT HAS BEEN MENTIONED IN THE HWO.
AREAS TO THE EAST MAY STILL A FEW FLURRIES FLYING IN THE NORTHWEST
WIND...BUT NO ACCUMULATION WILL BE REALIZED AFTER THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
DEPARTS OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE HELD BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD DUE TO PERSISTENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION. ONE LAST CONCERN COULD BE THE WIND CHILL ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS THESE VALUES MAY DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BY DAWN...AND POSSIBLY HIT ZERO ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EST SATURDAY...
A DEEP ARCTIC AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP THE UPSLOPE SNOW MACHINE IN ACTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES...BUT THE PIEDMONT SHOULD STAY DRY FROM THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE SNOWFALL THREAT WILL DECREASE LATER IN
THE WORK WEEK...THE THREAT FOR LOW WIND CHILL VALUES WILL INCREASE.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS PROJECT THAT THE WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA OF -5 F IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS ON EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND EVEN LOWER TO -10 F BY
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DIVING INTO THE TEENS AND
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND A DECENT NORTHWEST BREEZE...THE WIND
CHILL THREAT IS WORTHY ENOUGH TO NOTE IN THE HWO.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD...BUT THE MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE BEYOND
THIS POINT. THE 12Z GFS TRIES TO DEVELOP ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
FROM A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS ANY MOISTURE FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE CWA. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WERE INTRODUCED.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1145 AM EST SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH PRIMARILY A MIX OF SCATTERED MID
DECK AND BKN-OVC CIRRUS ABOVE.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TONIGHT WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH WITH MOST PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF KDAN THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER CIGS WILL LOWER ACROSS SOUTHEAST SECTIONS BUT ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS ON SUNDAY PENDING JUST HOW FAR
INLAND A LOBE OF PROGGED DEEPER MOISTURE GETS. ELSEWHERE...MORE OF
A HIGH/MID CANOPY CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
CIGS MAINLY ABOVE 10K FEET. LIGHT WEST TO SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT BUT BEGIN TO TURN NORTHERLY BY EARLY
SUNDAY AND INCREASE OVER THE EAST WHERE GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS COULD
OCCUR ESPCLY AROUND KDAN.
UPPER LOW TO THE NW WILL BE APPROACHING SUNDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE
MOSTLY BETWEEN THE EXITING LOW OFFSHORE AND THIS SYSTEM UNTIL
LATE. THIS MOISTURE COULD BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE WESTERN SLOPE
AREAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OTHERWISE VFR.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
FOR MONDAY INTO MID WEEK...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
A SECOND SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITH AN INFLUX OF VERY COLD AIR AND DEEP UPSLOPE
MOISTURE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING RESULTING IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS IN ADDITION TO LOW CIGS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR AT KBLF/KLWB AND POTENTIAL PERIODS
OF MVFR AT KBCB/KROA. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FLURRIES MAY OCCUR AS FAR EAST AS THE
PIEDMONT WHERE INTERVALS OF VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO OCCUR.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN TO MAINLY VFR LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE POSSIBLY RETURNING TO SUB-VFR AGAIN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK PASSING UPPER
IMPULSE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JH/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
436 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM PASSING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 436 AM EST...A POWERFUL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA COAST. THIS LOW PRESSURE
AREA...AROUND 980 MB...IS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING
AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST...WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AN
EXPANSIVE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM IS SEEN ON IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THE CLOUDS EXTEND ALL THE WAY UP INTO
EASTERN UPSTATE NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT...SKIES
ARE COMPLETELY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH A VEIL OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE.
REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS THE BACKEDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD OF
THIS SYSTEM JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND LONG
ISLAND. THIS BAND OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TOWARDS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE LATEST 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND 06Z HRRR GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST
THIS BAND OF PRECIP WILL EXPAND WESTWARD TOWARDS NW CT BY THE MID
MORNING HOURS...AS SFC LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HEAD NORTHEAST.
EVENTUALLY...LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SRN VT BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS WELL. WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS/LOW
20S...THIS PRECIP MAY INITIALLY DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.
HOWEVER...WE EXPECT THE COLUMN TO SATURATE QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW
LIGHT SNOW TO OCCUR. BY LATE IN THE DAY...3KM HRRR GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT 2-3 INCHES WILL HAVE ACCUMULATED IN THE NW CT BY THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
LITCHFIELD COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SNOWFALL FOR TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE....AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL BE SLOWING DOWN AS IT
CLOSES OFF ALOFT AND STARTS TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT. AS A
RESULT...THIS FEATURE WILL HELP DIRECT SOME OF THE COASTAL
MOISTURE BACK TOWARDS THE CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...AND LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE BY THE EVENING HOURS IN THESE LOCATIONS.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE HELD DOWN DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP IN
PLACE. MAX TEMPS ONLY LOOK TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
ACROSS THE REGION. N-NE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES OVER WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND DUE TO STRONG STORM OFFSHORE...WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KTS AT TIMES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEPARTS WELL OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EXPANDING EASTWARD...THE MODELS SEEMS TO FOCUS THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAKING FOR A STORM TOTAL /TODAY INTO TONIGHT/ OF A
COATING TO TWO INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE 2 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL LOOK TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE NIGHT...AS
MOISTURE WILL BECOME LIMITED DUE TO THE DEPARTING COASTAL WAVE. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 20S FOR MOST SPOTS...EXCEPT SOME TEENS OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN.
ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED...SO ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION LOOKS JUST A COATING FOR MOST AREAS. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MAY HELP SPAWN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRY TO DEVELOP
BY TUESDAY EVENING OFF THE COAST...BUT THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO BE
TOO FAR SOUTH/EAST TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON OUR AREA. THIS
FEATURE LOOKS TO BRING THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN NJ...AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF NY/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE HEADING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER WILL JUST BE CLOUDY SKIES WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT FLURRIES/PASSING SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ON TUESDAY...AND 20S
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SIMILAR ON WEDNESDAY INTO WED
NIGHT...AS THE BROAD AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER THE AREA. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW STILL IN
PLACE...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT WITHOUT ANY STRONG FORCING AROUND AND LIMITED
MOISTURE...ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE JUST A COATING TO AN INCH FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. DAYTIME TEMPS ON WED WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S...BUT COLDER TEMPS MOVING IN ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVERHEAD SHOULD ALLOW MINS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TO LOW
20S FOR WED NIGHT. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MAY START TO SET UP OFF LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE WED NIGHT
AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW MAY KEEP THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WEST OF
OUR AREA ACROSS CENTRAL NY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.
A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND
OPENING THE DOOR TO VERY COLD AIR. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE GUIDANCE TO OUR FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LOW MOVES BEFORE HEADING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST OVER
THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COLDER EACH DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS
AND 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY MAY NOT GET ABOVE ZERO ACROSS
A PORTION OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH SINGLE DIGITS READINGS INTO
THE TEENS EXPECTED FOR HIGHS SATURDAY. THE COLDEST WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING AS THE HIGH APPROACHES...IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL
HEADLINES...BOTH ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE
WEEKEND...SO HAVE THE THREAT HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...05Z...HAS A COASTAL LOW CENTERED ABOUT 200
MILES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITH PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING TO
ITS NORTHEAST WELL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND CAPE COD. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO PASS ABOUT 300 SOUTHEAST OFF CAPE
COD MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME...A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORT WAVE
ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS ALL MEANS SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND PORTIONS
OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THE LATER PART OF THE TAF PERIOD...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THICKENING AND LOWER AFTER SUNRISE.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY MID/LATE MORNING AT KPSF AND DURING THE AFTERNOON
AT KALB...KGFL AND KPOU. AS THE SNOW STARTS EXPECTING MVFR WITH CONDITIONS
LOWER TO IFR DUE TO VISIBILITY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD...06Z/TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS AN
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT KPOU DURING THE EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEASTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT GENERALLY LOOK LESS THAN A THIRD OF AN
INCH. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THESE WILL AMOUNTS TO LITTLE OF HYDROLOGIC
SIGNIFICANCE.
WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING BY WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
WILL BE BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE LAST TIME WE HAD TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO WAS:
ALBANY NY:
-9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES
GLENS FALLS NY:
-15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
-2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT:
-11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA:
-4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015
THE RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 14 ARE:
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
CLIMATE...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
503 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF THE
OUTERBANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND FARTHER OUT TO
SEA TODAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT NEAR THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AFTER THIS LOW QUICKLY
MOVE OUT TO SEA EARLY TUESDAY, A WEAKER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
ORGANIZE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH LATE
FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE, A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE
IT INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF SHORE. STILL HAVEN`T SEEN PRECIP
PROPAGATE WEST FAR ENOUGH TO MOVE ON SHORE. HOWEVER, A BAND HAS
BECOME MORE DEFINED IN THE RADAR MOSAIC, AND STILL EXPECT THIS TO
MOVE ONTO THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY SHORE NEAR DAY BREAK. HRRR AND RAP
SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS WELL. SO WILL CONTINUE THE THREE COUNTY
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GENERALLY ONE TO 3 INCHES WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE SHORE.
FOR THE REST OF THE REGION, EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
DAY. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE WINDS. ALREADY WINDS AT THE SHORE ARE
GUSTING 30 TO 35 KT (35 TO 40 MPH). HOWEVER, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD BE DECREASING QUICKLY AFTER DAY BREAK AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY,
SO THE WINDS WE ARE SEEING NOW ARE LIKELY GOING TO BE THE STRONGEST
WINDS OF THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION, GENERALLY SNOW OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX WILL START TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LEADING
TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE REGION. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN
WELL WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME, SO DO NOT EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO BE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND THE MODELS HAVE
IN FACT TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER THROUGH THIS PERIOD. EVEN SO, THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION COULD SEE AS MUCH AS 4 INCHES OF SNOW IF
MESOSCALE BANDS DEVELOP EARLY ENOUGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SECONDARY COASTAL LOW THAT DEEPENS RAPIDLY OFF THE NC OUTERBANKS
MONDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOO FAR OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY TO
DIRECTLY IMPACT US. HOWEVER, WE AREN`T OUT OF THE WOODS AS MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW REORGANIZING AS IT MOVES OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST ON TUESDAY. THIS SEEMS LIKE A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO
SINCE THE INITIAL MILLER-B LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WELL OUT TO
SEA (LEAVING SOME SEPARATION BETWEEN THE TWO) AND THERE LOOKS TO
BE ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
LOW THAT WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO HEIGHT FALLS AND COASTAL
CYCLOGENESIS. IN THESE TYPES OF SETUPS, ENHANCED FRONTOGENETICAL
LIFT AND MESOSCALE BANDING IS FAVORED ON THE NWRN SIDE OF THE LOW.
THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAD COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE BANDING IN THEIR MASS/THERMAL FIELDS THAT
PRODUCES A RELATIVELY NARROW WEST-EAST ORIENTED BAND OF HEAVIER
QPF OVER THE NRN DELMARVA/SERN PA/SRN NJ. PARTIAL THICKNESSES
IMPLY ALL SNOW. HOWEVER, THE CURRENT FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S FOR THESE AREAS OF CONCERN IMPLY THE LOWER BOUNDARY
LAYER IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. THERE IS CERTAINLY A
POTENTIAL THAT SOME RAIN MIXES IN AND/OR SNOW HAS A TOUGH TIME
ACCUMULATING...BUT ONLY IF THE INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP IS LIGHT.
IF THE HEAVIER SNOW DOES MATERIALIZE, THEN DYNAMICAL COOLING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THIS ISSUE.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH WPC AND NEIGHBORING WFOS, WE DECIDED IT WAS
BEST TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR FAR SERN PA, NRN DELMARVA AND
SRN NJ. THE WHOLE AREA IN THE WATCH WILL LIKELY NOT SEE WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWFALL (AND SOME MAYBE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS) BUT THIS IS
WHERE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR 5 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL
EXISTS IN A RATHER NARROW SWATH SOMEWHERE APPROXIMATELY AS FAR
NORTH AS PHILADELPHIA AND AS FAR SOUTH AS DOVER. ANOTHER
CHALLENGE WITH THIS EVENT IS TRYING TO PINPOINT THE TIMING OF THE
HEAVIER SNOW. THE WATCH GOES STARTS LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES 28
HOURS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A LONG DURATION
EVENT BUT WE WENT WIDE IN TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY IN
WHEN THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND DEVELOPS. ONE CAMP OF MODELS INDICATE
IT WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WHILE OTHER
CLUSTER FAVORS LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
FARTHER NORTH INTO NERN PA AND NWRN NJ, WHERE THE POSSIBILITY FOR
HEAVIER SNOW IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY AT THIS POINT, LIGHT SNOW MAY
ONLY ACCUMULATE AN INCH OR TWO TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER,
WE`LL STILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE HEAVIER
SNOW BAND SHIFTING NORTHWARD. VERY FEW SCENARIOS CAN BE RULED OUT
AT THIS POINT.
THE UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY OPENS UP AND THE WAVE PASSES THRU THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A KICKER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. WE WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THIS TIME BUT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
MINOR. THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN ITS WAKE, THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. TEMPS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S NORTH AND WEST OF THE FALL
LINE.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY. A
SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
BASE OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AND ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE
POLAR AIRMASS. FOR THE MOST PART, MODELS ARE SUPPRESSING THE TRACK
OF THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND DEEPENING IT TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO BRING
THE DEEPER ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER, THE 00Z
ECMWF, WITH SUPPORT FROM SOME OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, ARE SHOWING A
DEEPER AND MORE NORTHERN SYSTEM, WHICH COULD BRING YET ANOTHER
ROUND OF AT SNOW TO OUR REGION.
A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE IT INTO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES COULD BE 15-20F BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND
AND WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES (KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KILG) AND THE
WESTERN TAF SITES (KABE AND KRDG) - MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z. AFTER THAT, AN APPROACHING TROUGH
WILL BRING LOWER CEILINGS, AND EVENTUALLY LOWER VISIBILITIES WITH
SNOW. LOWER CEILINGS COULD START TO MOVE IN BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z, BUT
DO NOT EXPECT THE SNOW TO MOVE IN UNTIL AFTER 00Z. ONCE SNOW
BEGINS TO MOVE IN, EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF SNOW EXPECTED. THE SNOW MAY
MIX WITH RAIN AT MIV AND ACY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY ESPECIALLY AT
TIMES WHEN IT IS LIGHTER. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING AND OVERALL IMPACTS AT THE AIRPORTS BUT WE CAN
SAY THAT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT A NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW
WILL DEVELOP SOMETIME DURING THE PERIOD NEAR THE ILG-PHL-ACY
CORRIDOR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR
LIFR IF THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND DEVELOPS.
WEDNESDAY...LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY, THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR. BREEZY WLY WINDS
GUSTING TO 25 KT.
THURSDAY...VFR AND BREEZY NW WINDS GUSTING AOA 30 KT. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH.
FRIDAY...CURRENTLY FORECASTING VFR BUT WE ARE WATCHING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO DEVELOP NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
BRING MORE SNOW INTO THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
&&
.MARINE...
A GALE WARNING CONTINUES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. HAVE ALREADY SEEN
SEVERAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST REPORT GALE GUSTS. EXPECT THESE
STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY BEFORE DROPPING OFF
SHARPLY. ALTHOUGH SCA CONDITIONS FOR SEAS AND WINDS MAY LINGER FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY.
ON THE DELAWARE BAY, EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNRISE. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THEY MAY LINTER FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS BEYOND SUNRISE.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HAZARDOUS
SEAS AND PERIODS OF 25 KT GUSTS. THERE COULD BE A TEMPORARY LULL IN
THE WINDS ON TUESDAY CLOSE TO WHERE THE LOW DEVELOPS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SOLID SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GALES ARE
CERTAINLY A POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY NW WINDS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
***MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY AT SANDY HOOK FOR BOTH HIGH
TIDE CYCLES TODAY. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY NEAR THE THIS
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE FOR OTHER LOCATIONS. THERE IS INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING NEAR THE TUESDAY MORNING
HIGH TIDE.***
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR OVER EASTERN QUEBEC/LABRADOR WHILE LOW
PRESSURE PASSING OFFSHORE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDERGOES EXPLOSIVE
DEEPENING THROUGH TODAY. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH REMAINING
TO OUR NORTH, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
OUTER BANKS TONIGHT AND PASS OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN AN
ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST THRU TUESDAY, WITH ONLY A BRIEF PAUSE
THIS AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY TONIGHT, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
ADDING TO THE TIDAL FLOODING POTENTIAL, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL
BE HIGH DUE TO THE NEW MOON TODAY.
AT SANDY HOOK, WE ALREADY SAW A LARGE DEPARTURE WITH THE LOW TIDE
EARLIER, AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED SHARPLY AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THUS, MODEL GUIDANCE AND A
LOCAL REGRESSION PROGRAM INDICATE THAT A DEPARTURE OF OVER 2 FEET
IS POSSIBLE WITH THE NEXT HIGH TIDE, OR JUST ENOUGH TO REACH
MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS. WITH THE CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW
AND HIGH WAVE ACTION, EXPECT THAT IT COULD BE A SIMILAR STORY FOR
TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDE, THOUGH THAT IS THE LOWER OF THE ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES. THUS THE WARNING INCLUDES BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES TODAY.
CONTINUED THE WATCH FOR TOMORROW`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
FOR THE REST OF THE COAST...WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, WE EXPECT
A SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FT THIS MORNING. WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. WE HAVE ALSO TEMPERED DOWN THE
HIGH-BIASED ET AND ESTOFS GUIDANCE DUE TO A RESIDUAL BIAS OF
NEARLY 1 FOOT IN SPOTS. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NJ AND DE
OCEANFRONT, AS WELL AS DELAWARE BAY. THERE IS A BIT MORE
UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER WE REACH THE MINOR THRESHOLD AT REEDY
POINT, WHICH IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON EKMAN TRANSPORT IN A
NORTHEAST FLOW, BUT WE EXPECT IT TO BE CLOSE NONETHELESS.
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT FOR THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE.
FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT/LONGER
FETCH TO THE WIND WILL HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST,
INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY, AND PORTIONS OF THE TIDAL DELAWARE. WE AGREE
WITH THE STRONGER GFS WINDS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS REGARDING A BROAD LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST, WHICH MAY ALLOW WINDS TO QUICKLY
RELAX NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE, PARTICULARLY DELMARVA AND FAR
SOUTHERN NJ. NEVERTHELESS, ASIDE FROM A BRIEF LULL IN THE FLOW
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY MONDAY NIGHT, WE`LL HAVE HAD NEARLY
48 HOURS DURATION OF ONSHORE FLOW, WHICH WILL MAKE FOR HIGHER TIDAL
DEPARTURES COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING, IN ADDITION TO THE
ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDES. IN TERMS OF GUIDANCE, WE SIDED MORE
WITH THE HIGHER ETSS SURGE OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET, EVEN CONSIDERING THE
AFOREMENTIONED RESIDUAL. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE FOR THE NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT WITH
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NJ. ELSEWHERE, WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED, PERHAPS UP TO PHILADELPHIA, GIVEN THE
MORE EASTERLY FLOW UP DELAWARE BAY. FOR THESE AREAS, A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-101-102.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ012>014-020-026.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ020>027.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR NJZ016>023-027.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NJZ012>014.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR DEZ002>004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR DEZ001-002.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR MDZ008-012-015.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...JOHNSON/KLEIN
MARINE...JOHNSON/KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
348 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF THE
OUTERBANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND FARTHER OUT TO
SEA TODAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT NEAR THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AFTER THIS LOW QUICKLY
MOVE OUT TO SEA EARLY TUESDAY, A WEAKER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
ORGANIZE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH LATE
FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE, A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE
IT INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF SHORE. STILL HAVEN`T SEEN PRECIP
PROPAGATE WEST FAR ENOUGH TO MOVE ON SHORE. HOWEVER, A BAND HAS
BECOME MORE DEFINED IN THE RADAR MOSAIC, AND STILL EXPECT THIS TO
MOVE ONTO THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY SHORE NEAR DAY BREAK. HRRR AND RAP
SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS WELL. SO WILL CONTINUE THE THREE COUNTY
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GENERALLY ONE TO 3 INCHES WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE SHORE.
FOR THE REST OF THE REGION, EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
DAY. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE WINDS. ALREADY WINDS AT THE SHORE ARE
GUSTING 30 TO 35 KT (35 TO 40 MPH). HOWEVER, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD BE DECREASING QUICKLY AFTER DAY BREAK AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY,
SO THE WINDS WE ARE SEEING NOW ARE LIKELY GOING TO BE THE STRONGEST
WINDS OF THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION, GENERALLY SNOW OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX WILL START TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LEADING
TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE REGION. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN
WELL WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME, SO DO NOT EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO BE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND THE MODELS HAVE
IN FACT TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER THROUGH THIS PERIOD. EVEN SO, THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION COULD SEE AS MUCH AS 4 INCHES OF SNOW IF
MESOSCALE BANDS DEVELOP EARLY ENOUGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NR THE MID ATLC CST MON
NIGHT. THE GUID IS IN AGREEMENT ON THIS PART. THE DISAGREEMENT
LIES IN THE DETAILS, WHICH ARE IMPORTANT.
YESTERDAY, THE ECMWF, WENT OUT ON ITS OWN, WITH A STRONGER AND
MORE EWD SOLN. IT CONTINUED THAT TREND ON THE OVERNIGHT RUN AND
AGAIN ON TODAY`S RUN. IT HAS A MORE CONSOLIDATED LOW CENTER,
BRINGS THAT CENTER FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CST, AND HAS MUCH LESS
IMPACT ON OUR AREA.
WHILE THE ECMWF`S PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN LESS THAN STELLAR THIS
WINTER, AND IT IS A CLEAR OUTLIER IN THIS CASE. HOWEVER, ITS
OVERALL STATISTICS MEAN IT`S SOLUTION CAN NOT BE TOTALLY IGNORED,
AND STRANGER THINGS HAVE HAPPENED.
THE REST OF THE OTHER MDLS DO BRING A GENLY LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. PRECIP WILL BEGIN LATER MON AND TEMPS
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN OR SNOW THAT HAS A HARD TIME
ACCUMULATING IN MOST AREAS AND ON MANY SURFACES DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS.
AFTER SUNSET, THE SNOW WOULD START TO ACCUMULATE MORE. THE GUID
ALSO DIFFERS ON THE AREAS THAT WOULD SEE THE MOST QPF AND CHCS OF
HEAVIEST SNOWS. WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW LOOKS TO FALL WOULD BE ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE, EVEN WITH THE JANUARY BLIZZARD, THE MDLS WERE
HAVING TROUBLE DECIPHERING THIS EVEN 12 HOURS BEFOREHAND.
SO FOR NOW, WILL ONLY MAKE INCREMENTAL CHANGES TO THE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. ATTM, THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ADVY EVENT OR PSBLY LOW END WRNG
IN SOME AREAS.
ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR IS TEMPS DURG THE DAY ON TUE. TEMPS
WILL BE ABV FREEZING IN MANY AREAS, SO THERE CUD BE A MIX OR
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN, ESPECIALLY IN SRN AND ERN AREAS, AND MUCH
LIKE WE HAD THE OTHER DAY, EVEN WHERE IT SNOWS, IT COULD END UP
ACCUMULATING MAINLY ON GRASSY SFCS AND LESS TRAVELED ROADS DURG
DAYLIGHT HOURS, IF IT IS NOT COMING DOWN HARD.
THINGS SHUD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
THEN, A LARGE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL
CONUS. THIS HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT A GENLY DRY AND BREEZY NWLY FLOW WED THRU SAT. HOWEVER
TEMPS WILL NOT MAKE IT ABV FREEZING FROM THU ON. WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE TEENS. NRML LOWS ARE IN THE LOWER 40S NOW. SO WE ARE
LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS THAT WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NRML, AND WITH THE DAYS GETTING INCREASINGLY LONGER, THIS IS
INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO ACCOMPLISH, ESPECIALLY FOR AN EXTENDD
PD.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES (KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KILG) AND THE
WESTERN TAF SITES (KABE AND KRDG) - MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z. AFTER THAT, AN APPROACHING TROUGH
WILL BRING LOWER CEILINGS, AND EVENTUALLY LOWER VISIBILITIES WITH
SNOW. LOWER CEILINGS COULD START TO MOVE IN BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z, BUT
DO NOT EXPECT THE SNOW TO MOVE IN UNTIL AFTER 00Z. ONCE SNOW
BEGINS TO MOVE IN, EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING DURG THIS TIME AND FOR
FOR KPHL, KPNE, KMIV, KACY WILL TRANSITION FROM RAIN OR MIX TO
SNOW MON NIGHT. ELSEWHERE WILL BE SNOW MON NIGHT. PRECIP SHUD BE
LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART BUT THERE CUD BE SOME MDT OR HVY BURSTS.
EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDS. ON TUE, TEMPS SHUD WARM ENOUGH THAT FOR
KPHL, KPNE, KACY, KMIV SHUD AGAIN SEE A MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO RAIN,
DEPENDING ON HOW WARM TEMPS GET. LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE.
WED...SOME LINGERING SHSN, THEN IMPROVING TO VFR. BREEZY WITH W
TO NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THU...VFR AND BREEZY WITH NW WIND GUSTING 25 TO 30 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
A GALE WARNING CONTINUES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. HAVE ALREADY SEEN
SEVERAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST REPORT GALE GUSTS. EXPECT THESE
STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY BEFORE DROPPING OFF
SHARPLY. ALTHOUGH SCA CONDITIONS FOR SEAS AND WINDS MAY LINGER FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY.
ON THE DELAWARE BAY, EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNRISE. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THEY MAY LINTER FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS BEYOND SUNRISE.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
OUTLOOK...
TUE THROUGH WED...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYS WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
DURING THIS TIME. IT IS PSBL THAT THERE CUD BE SOME GALES,
ESPECIALLY ON WED, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE LOW.
THU...SOLID SCA CONDITIONS. NW WINDS BEHIND A CFP, WITH THE BEST
CHC FOR GALES.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
***MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY AT SANDY HOOK FOR BOTH HIGH
TIDE CYCLES TODAY. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY NEAR THE THIS
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE FOR OTHER LOCATIONS. THERE IS INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING NEAR THE TUESDAY MORNING
HIGH TIDE***
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR OVER EASTERN QUEBEC/LABRADOR WHILE LOW
PRESSURE PASSING OFFSHORE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDERGOES EXPLOSIVE
DEEPENING OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH REMAINING TO OUR NORTH, A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE OUTER BANKS MONDAY NIGHT AND PASS
OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST THRU
TUESDAY, WITH ONLY A BRIEF PAUSE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
SETTING THE STAGE, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE HIGH EARLY THIS WEEK,
TO DUE TO THE NEW MOON ON MONDAY.
AT SANDY HOOK, WE ALREADY SAW A LARGE DEPARTURE WITH THE LOW TIDE AT
SANDY HOOK EARLIER, AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED SHARPLY AND ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THUS, MODEL
GUIDANCE AND A LOCAL REGRESSION PROGRAM INDICATE THAT A DEPARTURE OF
OVER 2 FEET IS POSSIBLE WITH THE NEXT HIGH TIDE, OR JUST ENOUGH TO
REACH MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS. WITH THE CONTINUED NORTHEAST
FLOW AND HIGH WAVE ACTION, EXPECT THAT IT COULD BE A SIMILAR STORY
FOR TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE, THOUGH THAT IS THE LOWER OF THE ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES. THUS THE WARNING INCLUDES BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES TODAY.
CONTINUED THE WATCH FOR TOMORROWS HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
FOR THE REST OF THE COAST...WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, WE EXPECT
A SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET. WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. WE HAVE ALSO TEMPERED DOWN THE HIGH-BIASED
ET AND ESTOFS GUIDANCE DUE TO A RESIDUAL OF NEARLY 1 FOOT IN SPOTS.
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH
TIDE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT, AS WELL AS
DELAWARE BAY. THERE IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER WE REACH
THE MINOR THRESHOLD AT REEDY POINT, WHICH IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON
EKMAN TRANSPORT IN A NORTHEAST FLOW, BUT WE EXPECT IT TO BE CLOSE
NONETHELESS.
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ
AND DE OCEANFRONT FOR THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE, AS MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO LINGER.
FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT/LONGER
FETCH TO THE WIND WILL HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST,
INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY, AND PORTIONS OF THE TIDAL DELAWARE. WE AGREE
WITH THE STRONGER GFS WINDS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS REGARDING A BROAD LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST, WHICH MAY ALLOW WINDS TO QUICKLY
RELAX NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE, PARTICULARLY DELMARVA AND FAR
SOUTHERN NJ. NEVERTHELESS, ASIDE FROM A BRIEF LULL IN THE FLOW
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY MONDAY NIGHT, WE`LL HAVE HAD NEARLY
48 HOURS DURATION OF ONSHORE FLOW, WHICH WILL MAKE FOR HIGHER TIDAL
DEPARTURES COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING, IN ADDITION TO THE
ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDES. IN TERMS OF GUIDANCE, WE SIDED MORE
WITH THE HIGHER ETSS SURGE OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET, EVEN CONSIDERING THE
AFOREMENTIONED RESIDUAL. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE FOR THE NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT WITH THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NJ. ELSEWHERE, WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED, PERHAPS UP TO PHILADELPHIA, GIVEN THE MORE
EASTERLY FLOW UP DELAWARE BAY. FOR THESE AREAS, A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-101-102.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ012>014-020-026.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ020>027.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR NJZ016>023-027.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NJZ012>014.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR DEZ002>004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR DEZ001-002.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR MDZ008-012-015.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
226 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL RAPIDLY
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. BEHIND THESE TWO LOWS, ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE NATION AROUND MIDWEEK AND
WORK ITS WAY TOWARD THE EAST COAST BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MIDDLESEX,
MONMOUTH, AND OCEAN COUNTIES. THOUGH RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE
BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP IS CONTRACTING, HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW A FURTHER WEST TRACK
WITH THE LOW, WITH THE PRIME PERIOD FOR PRECIP FROM 12 TO 15Z. DID
NOT EXTEND IT FURTHER SOUTH AS IT LOOKS LIKE ACROSS CAPE MAY AND
ATLANTIC COUNTIES, TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP FAST ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIP STARTS TO MOVE OUT OF THOSE AREAS.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, BEFORE THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOWFALL
DEVELOPS ALONG COASTAL PORTIONS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY. A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUDS/TEMPS WERE MADE WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS EAST
OF CAPE HATTERAS. IT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS
EXPECTED TO EXPAND SLIGHTLY ON THE WEST SIDE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. AS OF NOW THE QUESTION
FOR OUR AREA IS HOW FAR WEST. BASED ON RECENT MODEL DIAGNOSTICS
AND COLLABORATION, WE EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO
REMAIN RIGHT NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE, THEN EXTEND TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST. THE NAM AND SREF ARE CURRENTLY THOUGHT TO BE HIGH WITH
THEIR AMOUNTS, WHILE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF GIVE A BETTER
EXPECTATION OF AMOUNTS.ANOTHER CONCERN WOULD BE HOW MUCH WOULD
ACCUMULATE BASED ON TEMPERATURES, AS TEMPERATURES AT THE ONSET
WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE FREEZING. SO FOR NOW WE ARE EXPECTING AROUND
AN INCH FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS, WITH
1-2 INCHES ACROSS AREAS FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHERN OCEAN AND
MONMOUTH COUNTIES AND EASTERN MIDDLESEX. WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
WINTER ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME AND LET LATER SHIFTS MONITOR FUTURE
GUIDANCE AND SEE IF A SHORT FUSED ADVISORY IS NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY, THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD WELL OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST. MEANWHILE, A
WEAKENING BACKDOOR FRONT MAY SAG DOWN INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS AS
WELL. THERE MAY LIKELY BE SOME SNOWFALL REMAINING ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW, AND AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD
INTO OUR AREA, IT COULD HELP ENHANCE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS. SO THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. AGAIN, THE
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE
AND TO OUR NORTHEAST, SO WHILE THERE COULD BE A LIGHT ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL, WE DO NOT EXPECT ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS TO BE MET AT THIS
TIME. ESPECIALLY IF SNOWFALL MIXES WITH OR CHANGES OVER TO RAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NR THE MID ATLC CST MON
NIGHT. THE GUID IS IN AGREEMENT ON THIS PART. THE DISAGREEMENT
LIES IN THE DETAILS, WHICH ARE IMPORTANT.
YESTERDAY, THE ECMWF, WENT OUT ON ITS OWN, WITH A STRONGER AND
MORE EWD SOLN. IT CONTINUED THAT TREND ON THE OVERNIGHT RUN AND
AGAIN ON TODAY`S RUN. IT HAS A MORE CONSOLIDATED LOW CENTER,
BRINGS THAT CENTER FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CST, AND HAS MUCH LESS
IMPACT ON OUR AREA.
WHILE THE ECMWF`S PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN LESS THAN STELLAR THIS
WINTER, AND IT IS A CLEAR OUTLIER IN THIS CASE. HOWEVER, ITS
OVERALL STATISTICS MEAN IT`S SOLUTION CAN NOT BE TOTALLY IGNORED,
AND STRANGER THINGS HAVE HAPPENED.
THE REST OF THE OTHER MDLS DO BRING A GENLY LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. PRECIP WILL BEGIN LATER MON AND TEMPS
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN OR SNOW THAT HAS A HARD TIME
ACCUMULATING IN MOST AREAS AND ON MANY SURFACES DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS.
AFTER SUNSET, THE SNOW WOULD START TO ACCUMULATE MORE. THE GUID
ALSO DIFFERS ON THE AREAS THAT WOULD SEE THE MOST QPF AND CHCS OF
HEAVIEST SNOWS. WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW LOOKS TO FALL WOULD BE ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE, EVEN WITH THE JANUARY BLIZZARD, THE MDLS WERE
HAVING TROUBLE DECIPHERING THIS EVEN 12 HOURS BEFOREHAND.
SO FOR NOW, WILL ONLY MAKE INCREMENTAL CHANGES TO THE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. ATTM, THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ADVY EVENT OR PSBLY LOW END WRNG
IN SOME AREAS.
ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR IS TEMPS DURG THE DAY ON TUE. TEMPS
WILL BE ABV FREEZING IN MANY AREAS, SO THERE CUD BE A MIX OR
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN, ESPECIALLY IN SRN AND ERN AREAS, AND MUCH
LIKE WE HAD THE OTHER DAY, EVEN WHERE IT SNOWS, IT COULD END UP
ACCUMULATING MAINLY ON GRASSY SFCS AND LESS TRAVELED ROADS DURG
DAYLIGHT HOURS, IF IT IS NOT COMING DOWN HARD.
THINGS SHUD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
THEN, A LARGE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL
CONUS. THIS HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT A GENLY DRY AND BREEZY NWLY FLOW WED THRU SAT. HOWEVER
TEMPS WILL NOT MAKE IT ABV FREEZING FROM THU ON. WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE TEENS. NRML LOWS ARE IN THE LOWER 40S NOW. SO WE ARE
LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS THAT WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NRML, AND WITH THE DAYS GETTING INCREASINGLY LONGER, THIS IS
INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO ACCOMPLISH, ESPECIALLY FOR AN EXTENDD
PD.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE TAF SITES FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO LOWER ON
THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST WELL OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST. CIGS WILL DECREASE INTO
THE MVFR RANGE FOR AWHILE LATE TONIGHT AND THEN IMPROVE MONDAY.
MORE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SNOWFALL. BASED ON LATEST MODEL DIAGNOSTICS AND COLLABORATION, WE
EXPECT SNOWFALL TO REMAIN ACROSS MOSTLY COASTAL AREAS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE AND OFFSHORE. THE MAIN TAF SITES THAT WOULD BE
AFFECTED WOULD BE ACY, WHICH COULD EXPERIENCE IFR CONDITIONS WITH
ANY SNOWFALL, IN ADDITION TO MIV WHICH COULD ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME
LIGHTER SNOWFALL AS WELL.
WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY EAST-NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS FOR
THE REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING
OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD, AND LIKELY BECOME GUSTY 20-25
KNOTS BY MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE GUSTY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY, BEFORE THE GUSTS DROP OFF BY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT AND TUE...PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING DURG THIS TIME AND FOR
FOR KPHL, KPNE, KMIV, KACY WILL TRANSITION FROM RAIN OR MIX TO
SNOW MON NIGHT. ELSEWHERE WILL BE SNOW MON NIGHT. PRECIP SHUD BE
LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART BUT THERE CUD BE SOME MDT OR HVY BURSTS.
EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDS. ON TUE, TEMPS SHUD WARM ENOUGH THAT FOR
KPHL, KPNE, KACY, KMIV SHUD AGAIN SEE A MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO RAIN,
DEPENDING ON HOW WARM TEMPS GET. LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE.
WED...SOME LINGERING SHSN, THEN IMPROVING TO VFR. BREEZY WITH W
TO NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THU...VFR AND BREEZY WITH NW WIND GUSTING 25 TO 30 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING EAST OF THE WATERS
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH MONDAY
AND THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
AND WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYS WILL DEVELOP OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. IT IS PSBL THAT THERE CUD BE SOME GALES,
ESPECIALLY ON WED, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE LOW.
THU...SOLID SCA CONDITIONS. NW WINDS BEHIND A CFP, WITH THE BEST
CHC FOR GALES.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
***MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY NEAR THE MONDAY MORNING
HIGH TIDE. THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING NEAR THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE***
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR OVER EASTERN QUEBEC/LABRADOR WHILE LOW
PRESSURE PASSING OFFSHORE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDERGOES EXPLOSIVE
DEEPENING OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH REMAINING TO OUR NORTH, A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE OUTER BANKS MONDAY NIGHT AND PASS
OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST THRU
TUESDAY, WITH ONLY A BRIEF PAUSE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
SETTING THE STAGE, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE HIGH EARLY THIS WEEK,
TO DUE TO THE NEW MOON ON MONDAY.
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, WE THINK THE NAM BACKS THE WINDS
TOO MUCH /MORE NORTHERLY/ AS WE APPROACH HIGH TIDE, POSSIBLY DUE TO
AN ISALLOBARIC EFFECT WITH THE DEEPENING OFFSHORE SYSTEM, AND IT WAS
DEEMED AN OUTLIER. WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS QUICKLY RAMPING UP TO GALE FORCE JUST OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT,
WE EXPECT A SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET. WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY COAST WHERE POCKETS OF MODERATE FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE,
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A GREATER COMPONENT OF ONSHORE FLOW. WE
HAVE ALSO TEMPERED DOWN THE HIGH-BIASED ET AND ESTOFS GUIDANCE DUE
TO A RESIDUAL OF NEARLY 1 FOOT IN SPOTS. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE NJ AND
DE OCEANFRONT, AS WELL AS DELAWARE BAY. THERE IS A BIT MORE
UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER WE REACH THE MINOR THRESHOLD AT REEDY
POINT, WHICH IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON EKMAN TRANSPORT IN A
NORTHEAST FLOW, BUT WE EXPECT IT TO BE CLOSE NONETHELESS.
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT
FOR THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE, AS MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER.
FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT/LONGER
FETCH TO THE WIND WILL HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST,
INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY, AND PORTIONS OF THE TIDAL DELAWARE. WE AGREE
WITH THE STRONGER GFS WINDS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS REGARDING A BROAD LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST, WHICH MAY ALLOW WINDS TO QUICKLY
RELAX NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE, PARTICULARLY DELMARVA AND FAR
SOUTHERN NJ. NEVERTHELESS, ASIDE FROM A BRIEF LULL IN THE FLOW
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY MONDAY NIGHT, WE`LL HAVE HAD
NEARLY 48 HOURS DURATION OF ONSHORE FLOW, WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
HIGHER TIDAL DEPARTURES COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING, IN ADDITION TO
THE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDES. IN TERMS OF GUIDANCE, WE SIDED
MORE WITH THE HIGHER ETSS SURGE OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET, EVEN CONSIDERING
THE AFOREMENTIONED RESIDUAL. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE FOR THE NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT
WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NJ. ELSEWHERE, WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED, PERHAPS UP TO PHILADELPHIA, GIVEN
THE MORE EASTERLY FLOW UP DELAWARE BAY. FOR THESE AREAS, A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ012>014-020-026.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
020>027.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR DEZ002>004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
457 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH. VALLEY TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED IN THE PAST
HOUR...HOWEVER BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP RUNS...AM STILL
CONCERNED FOR SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN THE EAST POTENTIALLY
ENDING UP WITH A LIGHT GLAZE. AS SUCH...HAVE HOISTED A SHORT FUSE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. IF THE
BETTER WARMING TRENDS CONTINUE LIKE THEY HAVE IN THE PAST
HOUR...THEN THIS WILL LIKELY GET DROPPED BEFORE EXPIRING.
ONCE THIS FIRST BATCH OF RAIN DEPARTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THERE
WILL BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...UNTIL A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE LAPSE RATES STEEPEN UP
QUITE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER...WITH THE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S FOR MOST TODAY...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY HOLDING OFF FOR MOST PLACES UNTIL DUSK OR SLIGHTLY
THEREAFTER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AS THE COLUMN COOLS QUICKER ALOFT.
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS WILL KICK IN TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY DEEPENS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES ROTATE THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY. STORM TOTALS STILL LOOK TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TAKING A NOSE DIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
READINGS FALLING BELOW FREEZING BY THIS EVENING...AND THEN INTO
THE 20S THROUGH TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING MAINLY RAIN TO THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH DAWN. THE RAIN BAND WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATE THROUGH 15Z...BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION. CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES
WILL DROP DOWN TO MVFR WITHIN THE MORE SUSTAINED RAIN INITIALLY.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY RAISE UP TOWARDS
15Z...BEFORE GRADUALLY DROPPING DOWN TO MVFR ONCE AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY EVEN BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AT TIMES.
INCOMING COLDER AIR WILL THEN CHANGE ANY RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW
SHOWERS TOWARDS DUSK...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-111-
114-116.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ088-118-
120.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ104-106>110-112-113-115-117-119.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ104-
106>109-111-112-114.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ087.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
SNOW SHOWERS...WIND...AND WHAT TO DO WITH HEADLINES WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST HEADACHE FOR THE SHORT TERM.
STREAKS OF SNOW CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH
POOR VISIBILITY UNDER THE HEAVIER BANDS. SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN VALLEY HAS BEEN GOING ON FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND
THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE A SHARP DECREASE IN SNOW ACTIVITY BY 12Z.
HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST TO GET RID OF THE PRECIP ALL
NIGHT. WITH WINDS AND PERIODIC LOW VIS...WILL KEEP WINTER HEADLINES
GOING THROUGH 12Z AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK LATER THIS MORNING TO SEE
IF THEY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR NOT.
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE STRONG THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS ABOVE 36
KTS STILL GOING AT FARGO AND GRAND FORKS. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE 45 KTS AT 925MB WITH EVEN HIGHER SPEEDS AT 850MB. MIXING
CONTINUES TO BE GOOD FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT...AROUND 900 TO 875MB.
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE TODAY AS THE SFC LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING.
THINK WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING AND EVEN INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH HIGHER WIND SPEEDS...THINK THAT ONCE
SNOW STOPS ACTIVELY FALLING THE VISIBILITY SITUATION WILL IMPROVE.
THUS...AS LONG AS SNOW SHOWERS STOP AS EXPECTED IT WILL MAINLY BE
A MATTER OF CHANGING OVER FROM WINTER HEADLINES TO WIND ADVISORY
AT 12Z. WILL MONITOR THE RADAR...OBS AND WEB CAMS DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS TO DETERMINE HOW TO ADJUST HEADLINES WHEN THE TIME
COMES BUT WILL KEEP THEM AS THEY ARE FOR NOW.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE QUIET AS NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLDER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING LATELY...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WHERE THEY WILL
GET THE BRUNT OF THE COLDER AIR MASS. WITH TEMPS DIPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO 10 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST...AND SOME WINDS
HANGING ON IN THAT AREA...WIND CHILLS COULD GET DOWN TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WITH ONGOING CURRENT HEADLINES WILL WAIT TO
PUT OUT ANYTHING ADDITIONAL FOR TOMORROW MORNING. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ZERO IN THE NORTHEAST BUT ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES WARMER IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE THICKNESS VALUES WILL BE
HIGHER.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST. A JET STREAK COMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING SOME LIFT
AND CREATE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER MAINLY OUR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR
WEDNESDAY. THINK THAT THE SNOW IS LESS LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE JET STREAK WILL HAVE MOVED OFF BY THEN SO WENT WITH THE
LOWER BLENDED POPS INSTEAD OF THE VERY WET NAM. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS IN THE SOUTHWEST.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER AIR PATTERN WAS
OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE EASTERN STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST. PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING TO NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS WAS A FASTER SOLUTION THEN
THE ECMWF. ALSO THE GFS WAS TRENDING FASTER AND THE ECMWF WAS
TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL BLEND THE TWO
MODELS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE DECREASED A DEGREE OR SO FOR THU. HIGHS WERE
DECREASED TWO TO FOUR DEGREES ON FRI...DECREASED FIVE TO SIX
DEGREES ON SAT AND INCREASED ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUST TO AROUND 35KT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN SUBSIDE AFTER 21Z. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR ANY SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. IT WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE LATER TONIGHT ONCE SNOW SHOWERS MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA. CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH 00Z FOR ALL BUT THE WEST AND
SHOULD START TO SCATTER OUT AROUND 00Z TUE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006-014-
015-024-026-028-038-049-052.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ007-016-027-029-030-039-053-054.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NDZ008.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MNZ003-005-006-008-009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MNZ001-
002-004-007.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1133 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
LATEST SUITE OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY A CLEAR SKY WEST
AND AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS CENTRAL...WITH KMOT/KBIS ON THE
EXTREME WESTERN FRINGES OF PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
A SOLID OVERCAST SKY EXISTS FROM ROLLA TO RUGBY AND INTO
HARVEY...JAMESTOWN...AND OAKES. VERY LIGHT RADAR RETURNS IN THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND EXPECT THESE TO WANE BY 07Z- 08Z...WHICH
WAS ADVERTISED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
DRY THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT BUT REMAINING WINDY CENTRAL...HENCE
THE WIND ADVISORY LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND
30 MPH. LATEST GUIDANCE IN LINE WITH THE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUING
IN THE EAST CENTRAL UNTIL MID AFTERNOON MONDAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 915 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
WE CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND WARNING EVERYWHERE...AND REPLACED IT
WITH A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS CENTRAL ND BASED ON RECENT LAMP OUTPUT
AND THE 00-02 RAP ITERATIONS. THOSE RAP SIMULATIONS MAINTAIN WINDS
OF 40-45 KT AT 850 MB ACROSS CENTRAL ND TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY FROM ROLLA TO RUGBY...STEELE...JAMESTOWN AND OAKES. WE
THUS CARRIED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LATTER AREAS UNTIL 22 UTC
MONDAY...WHILE ONLY RUNNING IT THROUGH 12 UTC FOR THE REST OF ITS
GEOGRAPHIC EXTENT.
FORECAST WIND SPEEDS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO ALIGN WITH OUR MOST
RECENT THINKING...BUT OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE GRIDDED FORECAST TO BLEND TO RECENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND
SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
WINDS ARE DECREASING OVER WESTERN ND AS THE HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT
EASES...AND AS LOW-LEVEL STABILITY BEGINS INCREASING AS A RESULT
OF THE DIMINISHING WINDS THEN SPEEDS WILL DECREASE EVEN MORE. WE
THOUGHT ABOUT CANCELLING THE HIGH WIND WARNING OVER NORTHWESTERN
ND WITH THIS UPDATE...BUT GUSTS ARE STILL EXCEEDING 40 MPH IN THE
CROSBY AREA SO WE WILL REVISIT THAT AGAIN A BIT LATER. WE SEE NO
REASON WHY THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF ND WILL
NOT BE DONE BY ITS PLANNED 03 UTC EXPIRATION AT THE LATEST BASED
ON TRENDS THOUGH.
AS FOR THE FORECAST...IT IS LARGELY ON TRACK...SO CHANGES WITH
THIS UPDATE WERE ONLY TO BETTER REFLECT RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW NEAR THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONT DIVING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN
VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER THE CWA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
UPPER LOW STACKED OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD WITH RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS LEADING TO FAST NORTHERLY FLOW OVER AND TO THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW AREAS
OF SNOW CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE OCCURRING.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH OVER THE FAR WEST THIS EVENING...THOUGH OVER REMAINING
PARTS OF THE AREA ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MIXING OF 50-60 KT GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL SLIGHT DIMINISHING OF THE WINDS BY
DAYBREAK. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
ON MONDAY...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA WITH FAST
NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
WITH MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...THOUGH STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT WILL HAVE SOME TROUBLE MIXING DOWN WITH NEUTRAL TO WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
MONDAY EVENING THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
WINDS THIS WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US AND A STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THIS PATTERN BECOMES
SEMI-PERMANENT ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND DEFINES THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL LEAVE A BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE
RELATIVELY FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
THIS WILL MEAN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION. ONE CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...ANOTHER
CHANCE WEDNESDAY...AND ANOTHER NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS MENTIONED
MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A RAIN SNOW
MIX WEST.
QUITE A BIT OF TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE THIS
WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S SOUTHWEST...20S AND 30S
CENTRAL...AND TEENS AND 20S EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY TO
THE 20S SOUTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AT KDIK/KISN/KMOT. KBIS
WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS FROM 08Z-13Z MONDAY...AND KJMS UNTIL
17Z MONDAY. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT AT KMOT/KBIS UNTIL
12Z MONDAY...AND AT KJMS UNTIL 21Z MONDAY. EXPECT SUSTAINED
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR NDZ003-004-
011-012-019>022-034-035-042-045-046.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ005-013-023-025-036-
037-047-048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1039 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ROTATING THROUGH
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH TRAILING SHORTWAVE SLIDING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS
INDICATING AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS DRIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
MID AND LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WITH THIS WAVE. WOULD EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO SLIDE OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AS
THE SHORTWAVE DRIFTS OFF INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA/SOUTHERN IOWA BY
EVENING. STILL SEEING SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THESE SLIDE INTO
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA DURING THE EVENING...THOUGH BEING
MAINLY INSTABILITY DRIVEN MAY BECOME LESS NUMEROUS BY MID EVENING.
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY HANDLED TODAYS SYSTEM VERY
POORLY...OVERESTIMATING QPF AMOUNTS AND MISPLACING PRECIPITATION TOO
FAR TO THE EAST. CURRENT EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AND RAP HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE ON CURRENT TRENDS SO FOLLOWED THEM MORE CLOSELY FOR THE
FORECAST INTO TONIGHT. WHAT HAS VERIFIED BETTER TODAY HAS BEEN THE
WINDS...WITH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET. EVEN
SO...VISIBILITIES HAVE REMAINED JUST EITHER SIDE OF 2 MILES EVEN
WHEN SNOW IS OCCURRING AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABOVE FREEZING AND
MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS SETTLED AND BECOME WET...PREVENTING ANY LOFTING
OF THE SNOW. AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...MODELS...IF THEY
CAN BE BELIEVED...STILL HINTING AT SOME DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW IN
OUR EAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER MINNESOTA ROTATES SOUTHWARD. THE QUESTION BECOMES WILL THIS
BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO AREAS IN THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNING. BASED ON TODAYS TRENDS WOULD THINK THAT IT
IS ON THE LOW END OF PROBABILITY...BUT AFTER COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES ELECTED TO LEAVE THE HEADLINE IN PLACE FOR
NOW...THOUGH DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE WARNING. DEPENDENT ON THE
TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING...FUTURE SHIFT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE
HEADLINE AS NEEDED. IN ANY EVENT...ANY SNOWFALL LOOKS TO REMAIN VERY
LIGHT...AT GENERALLY AROUND A HALF AN INCH OR LESS.
OTHERWISE...THE STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY...BEFORE TAPERING DOWNWARD FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
ANY VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST IN OUR FAR EAST THROUGH MID
DAY...THEN COME TO AND END BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
ON MONDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS FAR
EAST TO LOWER 30S FAR WEST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
AGAIN TODAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN RUNNING
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FAIRLY PRONOUNCED
SINE WAVE ACROSS THE CONUS...BRINGING COLD WEATHER TO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS...AND WARM WEATHER TO THE WESTERN HALF. WE WILL
BE STUCK IN-BETWEEN THESE TWO AIRMASS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
WEAK IMPULSES OF WARMER AIR TRYING TO MOVE EAST LEADING TO LIGHT
SNOW CHANCES. AGAIN...GIVEN THE SUBTLE NATURE OF THESE
WAVE...MODELS HAVING A HARD TIME FIGURING OUT WHEN THE BEST FOCUS
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND. CONSIDERABLE OSCILLATIONS IN
ECMWF/GFS GUIDANCE CONTINUES...AND AT THIS POINT...CAN ONLY SEE
HAVING SLIGHT TO LOW END CHC POPS. OF MORE CERTAINTY IS THAT NO
MAJOR SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEMS ARE ON THE HORIZON THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL
MINNESOTA MAY BE IN THE TEENS...WHILE READINGS IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA COULD CLIMB INTO THE 30S EACH DAY. TODAYS GUIDANCE HAS
NUDGED COLDER AIR A BIT FURTHER WESTWARD...SO AS A RESULT
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO TRENDED A COUPLE DEGREES COLDER FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
BLOWING SNOW WITH WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AT TIMES MAY CAUSE BRIEF
IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MONDAY.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR SDZ055-056-062-
067-071.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR SDZ038-039-052>054-
058>061-064>066-068>070.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR SDZ040.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ098.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-
089-090-097.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR IAZ001-012-020-
031.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR IAZ002-003-013-014-
021-022-032.
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR NEZ014.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR NEZ013.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
927 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND BRING HEAVY SNOW...STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING TO EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVE PAST NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MAINTAINING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY DRY AIR AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9 AM UPDATE...
AT 12Z THE HRRR AND RAP13 VERIFYING BEST REGARDING LEADING EDGE OF
SNOW SHIELD AND EMBEDDED HEAVY SNOW BAND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.
VSBYS ALREADY DOWN TO 1/4 MILE AT MARSHFIELD/PYM/TAN/PVD SOUTHWARD
TO THE COAST INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. STORM TOTAL QPF
FROM THESE TWO MODELS BRING BACK EDGE OF 0.50 QPF INTO CENTRAL CT
EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE WORCESTER HILLS AND NORTHEAST MA
INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. THUS SUPPORTING CURRENT
HEADLINES. HOWEVER WE ARE CONCERED REGARDING VERY DRY ARCTIC
AIRMASS BLEEDING SOUTHWARD ON BACKSIDE OF COASTAL FRONT INTO
NORTHERN MA. DEW PT DOWN TO -6F AT ORE! THIS MAY FURTHER CUT DOWN
THE SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE CT RVR VALLY INTO HARTFORD. HOWEVER
BEFORE CHANGING ANY HEADLINES WANT TO FULLY REVIEW THE 12Z NAM.
COASTAL FRONT IN THE PROCESS OF COMING THRU GREATER BOSTON AREA
WITH WIND SHIFT FROM NE TO N ALONG WITH TEMP DROP.
WHILE THE SNOW IS GRABBING ALL THE HEADLINES THE BIGGEST IMPACT
WITH THIS STORM WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE
WIND GUSTS OVER COASTAL PLYMOUTH/CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. ALREADY
G46 KT AT NANTUCKET WITH WINDS PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
***MAJOR WINTER STORM TO AFFECT EASTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH HEAVY
SNOW AND STRONG WINDS***
***GREATEST CONCERN CONTINUES FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST MA ONTO THE
CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE BLIZZARD WARNINGS ARE POSTED FOR WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/POWER OUTAGES WITH 45 TO
65 MPH GUSTS***
1) OVERVIEW...
IMPRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SPINNING EAST OF NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH LIGHTNING SHOWING UP NEAR THE STORM/S CENTER. THE
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING NEAR 975
MB AS IT PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
ITS UNUSUAL FOR OUR AREA TO SEE HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH A STORM TRACKING
THIS FAR SOUTHEAST...THIS SYSTEM HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH A
POTENT EAST NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET. THERE IS ALSO A 1030 MB HIGH
OVER EASTERN CANADA...WHICH WILL GENERATE POWERFUL/DAMAGING WINDS
ALONG THE COAST. WE WILL BREAK IT DOWN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
PARAGRAPHS ON OUR EXPECTATIONS AND UNCERTAINTY.
2) TIMING AND PTYPE...
THE LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM WILL QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS. SNOW
SHOULD REACH A TAUNTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM...THEN
A BOSTON...TO HARTFORD...TO WORCESTER LINE BETWEEN BY 7 OR 8
AM...AND FINALLY INTO OUR DISTANT INTERIOR ZONES OF WESTERN MA BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. PTYPE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW OTHER THAN PERHAPS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS....WHICH
SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW BY 6 OR 7 AM. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL
FROM THIS MORNING INTO MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD
SEE SNOW DIMINISH IN INTENSITY BY EARLY EVENING...EXCEPT FOR
LOCALIZED AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN MA COAST.
3) QPF AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...
AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AND ESPECIALLY HOW FAR NORTHWEST THE HEAVIEST SNOW
REACHES ACROSS OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE MAIN ISSUE IS ALTHOUGH
THIS STORM IS QUITE POWERFUL...ITS PASSING SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK...WHICH IS FURTHER SOUTHEAST THAN MOST OF OUR MAJOR WINTER
STORMS. IN THIS CASE THOUGH...ITS SUCH A LARGE STORM WITH A POTENT
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET AT 925 MB INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SO
THAT IS ALLOWING HEAVIER SNOW TO SPREAD FURTHER NORTHWEST. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE STRONG FORCING IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER IN THE
ATMOSPHERE THAN USUAL AND MORE SUBJECT TO MESOSCALE
FEATURES/NUANCES. IN THIS CASE...THOSE WILL BE OCEAN
EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT ALONG WITH INTERACTIONS NEAR THE COASTAL FRONT.
ALSO...EXPECT SOME SUBTLE UPSLOPE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WORCESTER HILLS.
THE MAIN IDEA HERE IS THAT GIVEN THE STORM PASSING WELL SOUTHEAST OF
OUR REGION...MESOSCALE PROCESSES WILL PLAY A GREATER ROLE THAN A
TYPICAL NOREASTER. THIS MAKES THE SNOWFALL FORECAST QUITE DIFFICULT
AS EXACT AMOUNTS MAY VARY CONSIDERABLY OVER SMALL DISTANCES.
OVERALL...FEEL THAT 8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IS QUITE REASONABLE FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MA/CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. LOCALIZED 12+ INCH
AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PLYMOUTH
COUNTY AND ONTO THE UPPER CAPE...WHERE COASTAL FRONT/OCEAN
ENHANCEMENT LINEUP. FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR FEEL 5 TO 10 INCHES IS REASONABLE. WE ALSO OPTED TO
EXPAND WINTER STORM WARNING/S INTO NORTHERN WORCESTER/NORTHWEST
MIDDLESEX COUNTY AS MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME HIGHER
QPF...LIKELY A RESULT OF SUBTLE UPSLOPE FLOW. FINALLY...WE ALSO
DID EXPAND WARNING/S INTO THE REST OF NORTHERN CT AS MODELS ARE
SHOWING SOME DECENT OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...SO A GENERAL
4 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED IN THIS REGION. ACROSS THE REST OF WESTERN
MA WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY FOR A GENERAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.
4) BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/WIND DAMAGE AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...
THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS STORM WILL NOT BE SPECIFIC SNOW
AMOUNTS...BUT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND ONTO
THE CAPE/ISLANDS. POWERFUL LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN VERY STRONG
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 65 MPH ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES ALONG WITH WIND
DAMAGE/SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT INITIALLY
THE SNOW WILL BE WET...WHICH WILL ALSO ADD TO THE RISK OF TREE
DAMAGE/POWER OUTAGES. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL MAKE THIS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM AND TRAVEL IS NOT
RECOMMENDED IN THIS REGION.
WHILE WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG FURTHER NORTHWEST ALONG
THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR...STILL EXPECTING A PERIOD OF
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL PROMOTE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG WITH VERY POOR
VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL FALL INTO THE 20S ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE BY AFTERNOON...AS STRONG
NNE WINDS PUSH MUCH COLDER AIR INTO MUCH OF THE REGION. MEANWHILE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND ONTO THE CAPE/ISLANDS...TEMPS
WILL HOLD INTO THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S AS COASTAL FRONT WILL
BE HELD UP IN THIS REGION FOR A TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL COME TO AN END BY EARLY EVENING AS STORM PULLS
AWAY AND LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. HOWEVER...EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MOIST NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW JUST OFF THE DECK. WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW WILL
BE LIGHT TONIGHT...VERY LOCALIZED BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST AS A RESULT OF OCEAN
ENHANCEMENT/LAND SEA INTERFACE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS
SHOW A SIMILAR SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
MIDWEEK...THE LAST MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE
ORIGINITATED OVER ARCTIC CANADA AND IT IS NO SURPRISE THAT TEMPS
OVER US COOL SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER IT PASSES.
CLOSED LOW FROM BAFFIN ISLAND THEN SLIPS SOUTH AND MAINTAINS THE
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST USA. THE ECMWF
FORMS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION THAT DRAWS THIS CLOSED LOW INTO THE
NORTHEAST USA SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS AND GGEM HOLD IT OVER QUEBEC.
THE CONSEQUENCE IS THAT THE ECMWF FORMS A SIGNIFICANT WEEKEND
SNOWSTORM WHILE THE OTHERS FORM A WEAK WAVE WELL OFFSHORE.
THE FORECAST FAVORS A MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN FAVORS A
CONSENSUS WITHOUT THE ECMWF OVER NEXT WEEKEND.
THE DAILIES...
TUESDAY...POSITION OF UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO FAVOR FORMATION OF
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SAID COASTAL LOW
THEN MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THIS WOULD
MAINTAIN AT LEAST WEAK LIFT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FGEN FIELDS
ARE MARGINAL BUT FAVOR SOUTH COASTAL SECTIONS AND ESPECIALLY CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS. NOT CONFIDENT ON SNOW SHOWERS VS A STRATIFORM
SNOW. WE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST
POPS IN THE MIDDAY/AFTERNOON. MOISTURE FIELDS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW INCHES...TECHNICALLY A MODERATE SNOW ACCUM...ACROSS
RI/SOUTHEAST MASS.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH AND THE
UPPER COLD POOL APPROACHES. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE IN THIS GROUP MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THIS
SUGGESTS A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. ONLY
LIMITED MIXING WEDNESDAY...TO 950 MB...WITH TEMPS SUPPORTING MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE 30S. DEEPER MIXING THURSDAY AS COLD ADVECTION STARTS.
MIXING REACHES ABOVE 900 MB THURSDAY WITH TEMPS SUPPORTING UPPER 20S-
LOWER 30S. WINDS IN THE THURSDAY MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST AT 25-30
MPH...SHOULD BE AVAILABLE AS NORTHWEST GUSTS.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY-SUNDAY... ARCTIC AIR POURS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND IS
WITH US THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MIXING WILL BRING 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE
SURFACE IN GUSTS. TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL FALL INTO THE -20S AND
SUGGEST MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 20S FRIDAY AND 15-25 SAT-SUN. GIVEN THE
SOURCE REGION OF THE AIRMASS...MODEL SUGGESTIONS OF MIN TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE NUMBERS EITHER SIDE OF ZERO LOOK REASONABLE. SUCH COLD AIR
ALOFT AND WINDS OVER 10 KT WILL GENERATE OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD KEEP THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE.
AS NOTED ABOVE...WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL SUITES TO SEE
IF THE 00Z ECMWF WEEKEND LOW IS A BLIP OR AN ACTUAL PROBLEM.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. SNOW OVERSPREADS THE I-95
CORRIDOR 13-14Z AND REACHES BACK INTO WESTERN MA BY 15Z OR 16Z.
THE SNOW WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WHERE 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHER LOCALIZED BANDS OF
HEAVY SNOW ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WORCESTER HILLS.
AS FOR CIGS/VSBYS...WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA/CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS AS VSBYS DROP TO ONE QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES. NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS...WITH THE STRONGEST OF THOSE WINDS AT NANTUCKET.
FURTHER NORTHWEST...A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40
KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...SO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALSO EXPECTED IN THESE
LOCATIONS.
TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WHILE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
COME TO AN END EARLY THIS EVENING...AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
PERSIST OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. STRONG NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AS STORM PULLS AWAY AND LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS.
NONETHELESS...WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 14 OR
15Z THIS MORNING. SNOW MAY FALL HEAVY AT TIMES WITH 1 TO 2 INCH
PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 40 KNOTS PERSIST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF
LIFR CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE AFTER 14 OR 15Z AS SNOW WORKS INTO
THE REGION.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH
HIGHEST CHANCE IN RI AND SOUTHEAST MASS. IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW
SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
25-30 KNOTS. OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS JUST OFF THE COAST WITH
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
***STRONG GALE TO STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 KNOTS AND SEAS
EXCEEDING 20 FEET EXPECTED ACROSS OUR EASTERN OUTER-WATERS LATER
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON***
POWERFUL 975 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK WILL COMBINED WITH A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
EASTERN CANADA. THE RESULT WILL BE STRONG NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 KNOTS...THE STRONGEST OF THOSE WINDS ACROSS OUR WATERS
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET. GALE AND STORM WARNINGS POSTED FOR ALL
WATERS WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO OVER 20 FEET ACROSS OUR
EASTERN WATERS BY AFTERNOON. HEAVY SNOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN
VISIBILITIES ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE WATERS. NONETHELESS...SEAS WILL
BE SLOW TO DIMINISH THOUGH WITH LEFT OVER SWELL AND PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST FETCH.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY BUT REMAIN 5 FEET OR HIGHER ON
THE EXPOSED WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.
WEDNESDAY...WINDS BECOME WEST LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. SEAS LINGER 5 FEET
OR HIGHER ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS EAST OF CAPE COD. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST
WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SEAS OF 5-7 FEET MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS...SUBSIDING FRIDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
***POCKETS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE SOUTH OF BOSTON
ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST***
915 AM UPDATE...
PRIOR FORECAST LOOKS TO BE RIGHT ON TARGET WITH MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING LIKELY FOR THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE FROM HULL TO
PLYMOUTH...NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORELINES OF CAPE COD...AND
NANTUCKET NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORELINES. AT THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE...PROJECTING SEAS APPROACHING 20 FEET MASS BAY AND 20 TO 25
FEET EAST OF THE OUTER CAPE AND EAST OF NANTUCKET. PRIOR SURGE
FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE. ANTICIPATE SURGE TO BE 1.7 TO 2.2 FEET
FROM BOSTON NORTH AND GENERALLY 2.1 TO 2.6 FEET ALONG EAST AND
NORTH FACING SHORELINES SOUTH OF BOSTON INCLUDING
SCITUATE...SANDWICH/DENNIS...PROVINCETOWN...CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET.
AT LEAST SOME EROSION IS EXPECTED ALL ALONG THE MA COASTLINE FROM
SALISBURY TO NANTUCKET...MOST SEVERE ALONG THE OUTER CAPE AND THE
EAST SIDE OF NANTUCKET INCLUDING SIASCONSET.
AS OF 915 PM...REPORTS OF COASTAL FLOODING HAVE STARTED TO COME
IN WITH PORTIONS OF OCEANSIDE ROAD AND CENTRAL AVENUE IN SCITUATE
AND THE BRANT ROCK AREA OF MARSHFIELD ALREADY IMPACTED. FLOODING
SHOULD ALREADY BE STARTING TO OCCUR ALONG PORTIONS OF NANTUCKET
HARBOR INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO EASY STREET.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LOOKS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE MA
COASTLINE FOR THE LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE DUE TO RESIDUAL SURGE AND
WAVE ACTION. THE WIND WILL HAVE BACKED TO A MORE N DIRECTION AND
SPEEDS CONSIDERABLY LESS BY THE LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE...WHICH IS
A HALF TO A LITTLE LESS THAN A FOOT LOWER ASTRONOMICALLY ALONG
MOST OF THE EASTERN MA COASTLINE. SEAS WILL PROBABLY STILL BE
RUNNING 14 TO 18 FEET A LITTLE OFFSHORE...PERHAPS AROUND 20 FEET
STILL EAST OF NANTUCKET. THUS...AT LEAST SOME EROSION WILL LIKELY
BE WITNESSED AGAIN TONIGHT AROUND THE HIGH TIDE. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN COASTLINE
FOR THE LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE.
EARLY AM DISCUSSION IS STILL RELEVANT AND FOLLOWS...
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES SOUTH OF BOSTON THRU COASTAL
PLYMOUTH COUNTY TO CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET GIVEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF
STRONG WIND FIELD ACROSS THIS REGION. EXPECTING AREAS OF MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING IN THIS AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO MIDDAY
HIGH TIDE. LOW LEVEL WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG FROM BOSTON
NORTHWARD. THUS LESS STORM SURGE AND COASTAL FLOODING WILL LIKELY BE
MAINLY IN THE MINOR CATEGORY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT POCKETS OF LOW-
END MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. HIGH TIDE CYCLE OF GREATEST CONCERN
IS THE LATE THIS MORNING INTO MIDDAY...BASICALLY 9 AM TO 1 PM IS THE
TIMELINE.
EXPECTING A STORM SURGE OF BETWEEN 2.5 AND 3 FT ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA AND NEAR 2 FT FROM BOSTON NORTHWARD TO THE MA/NH BORDER. ETSS
WAS HIGHER THAN THE ESTOFS AND SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN NE WINDS WILL
GUSTS 45 TO 65 MPH. IN ADDITION LARGE WAVES IN EXCESS OF 20 FT JUST
OFFSHORE...WILL PROMOTE WAVE RUNUP PUSHING WAVES AND OVER SEAWALLS
AND OTHER STRUCTURES. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN POTENTIAL MODERATE
BEACH EROSION. AGAIN GREATEST IMPACTS FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM ALONG
PLYMOUTH COAST TO CAPE COD BAY TO NANTUCKET...WITH LESS IMPACTS
BOSTON NORTHWARD TO MA/NH BORDER.
WE MAY HAVE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE LATE EVENING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST. HOWEVER ASTRO TIDE IS
LOWER...LESS WINDS AND PRES RISES OVERSPREADING THE AREA...BUT A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ018-019-
021>024.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ019-
022-024.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ004>007-
012>017-020-026.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ007-015-016-023.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ002-003-
008>011.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ008.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-250-
254>256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-235-237.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ236.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/FRANK
NEAR TERM...WTB/FRANK/NOCERA
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/FRANK
MARINE...WTB/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK/THOMPSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
906 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND BRING HEAVY SNOW...STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING TO EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVE PAST NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MAINTAINING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY DRY AIR AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9 AM UPDATE...
AT 12Z THE HRRR AND RAP13 VERIFYING BEST REGARDING LEADING EDGE OF
SNOW SHIELD AND EMBEDDED HEAVY SNOW BAND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.
VSBYS ALREADY DOWN TO 1/4 MILE AT MARSHFIELD/PYM/TAN/PVD SOUTHWARD
TO THE COAST INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. STORM TOTAL QPF
FROM THESE TWO MODELS BRING BACK EDGE OF 0.50 QPF INTO CENTRAL CT
EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE WORCESTER HILLS AND NORTHEAST MA
INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. THUS SUPPORTING CURRENT
HEADLINES. HOWEVER WE ARE CONCERED REGARDING VERY DRY ARCTIC
AIRMASS BLEEDING SOUTHWARD ON BACKSIDE OF COASTAL FRONT INTO
NORTHERN MA. DEW PT DOWN TO -6F AT ORE! THIS MAY FURTHER CUT DOWN
THE SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE CT RVR VALLY INTO HARTFORD. HOWEVER
BEFORE CHANGING ANY HEADLINES WANT TO FULLY REVIEW THE 12Z NAM.
COASTAL FRONT IN THE PROCESS OF COMING THRU GREATER BOSTON AREA
WITH WIND SHIFT FROM NE TO N ALONG WITH TEMP DROP.
WHILE THE SNOW IS GRABBING ALL THE HEADLINES THE BIGGEST IMPACT
WITH THIS STORM WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE
WIND GUSTS OVER COASTAL PLYMOUTH/CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. ALREADY
G46 KT AT NANTUCKET WITH WINDS PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
***MAJOR WINTER STORM TO AFFECT EASTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH HEAVY
SNOW AND STRONG WINDS***
***GREATEST CONCERN CONTINUES FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST MA ONTO THE
CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE BLIZZARD WARNINGS ARE POSTED FOR WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/POWER OUTAGES WITH 45 TO
65 MPH GUSTS***
1) OVERVIEW...
IMPRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SPINNING EAST OF NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH LIGHTNING SHOWING UP NEAR THE STORM/S CENTER. THE
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING NEAR 975
MB AS IT PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
ITS UNUSUAL FOR OUR AREA TO SEE HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH A STORM TRACKING
THIS FAR SOUTHEAST...THIS SYSTEM HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH A
POTENT EAST NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET. THERE IS ALSO A 1030 MB HIGH
OVER EASTERN CANADA...WHICH WILL GENERATE POWERFUL/DAMAGING WINDS
ALONG THE COAST. WE WILL BREAK IT DOWN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
PARAGRAPHS ON OUR EXPECTATIONS AND UNCERTAINTY.
2) TIMING AND PTYPE...
THE LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM WILL QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS. SNOW
SHOULD REACH A TAUNTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM...THEN
A BOSTON...TO HARTFORD...TO WORCESTER LINE BETWEEN BY 7 OR 8
AM...AND FINALLY INTO OUR DISTANT INTERIOR ZONES OF WESTERN MA BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. PTYPE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW OTHER THAN PERHAPS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS....WHICH
SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW BY 6 OR 7 AM. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL
FROM THIS MORNING INTO MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD
SEE SNOW DIMINISH IN INTENSITY BY EARLY EVENING...EXCEPT FOR
LOCALIZED AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN MA COAST.
3) QPF AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...
AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AND ESPECIALLY HOW FAR NORTHWEST THE HEAVIEST SNOW
REACHES ACROSS OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE MAIN ISSUE IS ALTHOUGH
THIS STORM IS QUITE POWERFUL...ITS PASSING SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK...WHICH IS FURTHER SOUTHEAST THAN MOST OF OUR MAJOR WINTER
STORMS. IN THIS CASE THOUGH...ITS SUCH A LARGE STORM WITH A POTENT
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET AT 925 MB INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SO
THAT IS ALLOWING HEAVIER SNOW TO SPREAD FURTHER NORTHWEST. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE STRONG FORCING IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER IN THE
ATMOSPHERE THAN USUAL AND MORE SUBJECT TO MESOSCALE
FEATURES/NUANCES. IN THIS CASE...THOSE WILL BE OCEAN
EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT ALONG WITH INTERACTIONS NEAR THE COASTAL FRONT.
ALSO...EXPECT SOME SUBTLE UPSLOPE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WORCESTER HILLS.
THE MAIN IDEA HERE IS THAT GIVEN THE STORM PASSING WELL SOUTHEAST OF
OUR REGION...MESOSCALE PROCESSES WILL PLAY A GREATER ROLE THAN A
TYPICAL NOREASTER. THIS MAKES THE SNOWFALL FORECAST QUITE DIFFICULT
AS EXACT AMOUNTS MAY VARY CONSIDERABLY OVER SMALL DISTANCES.
OVERALL...FEEL THAT 8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IS QUITE REASONABLE FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MA/CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. LOCALIZED 12+ INCH
AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PLYMOUTH
COUNTY AND ONTO THE UPPER CAPE...WHERE COASTAL FRONT/OCEAN
ENHANCEMENT LINEUP. FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR FEEL 5 TO 10 INCHES IS REASONABLE. WE ALSO OPTED TO
EXPAND WINTER STORM WARNING/S INTO NORTHERN WORCESTER/NORTHWEST
MIDDLESEX COUNTY AS MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME HIGHER
QPF...LIKELY A RESULT OF SUBTLE UPSLOPE FLOW. FINALLY...WE ALSO
DID EXPAND WARNING/S INTO THE REST OF NORTHERN CT AS MODELS ARE
SHOWING SOME DECENT OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...SO A GENERAL
4 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED IN THIS REGION. ACROSS THE REST OF WESTERN
MA WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY FOR A GENERAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.
4) BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/WIND DAMAGE AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...
THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS STORM WILL NOT BE SPECIFIC SNOW
AMOUNTS...BUT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND ONTO
THE CAPE/ISLANDS. POWERFUL LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN VERY STRONG
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 65 MPH ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES ALONG WITH WIND
DAMAGE/SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT INITIALLY
THE SNOW WILL BE WET...WHICH WILL ALSO ADD TO THE RISK OF TREE
DAMAGE/POWER OUTAGES. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL MAKE THIS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM AND TRAVEL IS NOT
RECOMMENDED IN THIS REGION.
WHILE WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG FURTHER NORTHWEST ALONG
THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR...STILL EXPECTING A PERIOD OF
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL PROMOTE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG WITH VERY POOR
VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL FALL INTO THE 20S ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE BY AFTERNOON...AS STRONG
NNE WINDS PUSH MUCH COLDER AIR INTO MUCH OF THE REGION. MEANWHILE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND ONTO THE CAPE/ISLANDS...TEMPS
WILL HOLD INTO THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S AS COASTAL FRONT WILL
BE HELD UP IN THIS REGION FOR A TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL COME TO AN END BY EARLY EVENING AS STORM PULLS
AWAY AND LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. HOWEVER...EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MOIST NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW JUST OFF THE DECK. WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW WILL
BE LIGHT TONIGHT...VERY LOCALIZED BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST AS A RESULT OF OCEAN
ENHANCEMENT/LAND SEA INTERFACE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS
SHOW A SIMILAR SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
MIDWEEK...THE LAST MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE
ORIGINITATED OVER ARCTIC CANADA AND IT IS NO SURPRISE THAT TEMPS
OVER US COOL SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER IT PASSES.
CLOSED LOW FROM BAFFIN ISLAND THEN SLIPS SOUTH AND MAINTAINS THE
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST USA. THE ECMWF
FORMS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION THAT DRAWS THIS CLOSED LOW INTO THE
NORTHEAST USA SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS AND GGEM HOLD IT OVER QUEBEC.
THE CONSEQUENCE IS THAT THE ECMWF FORMS A SIGNIFICANT WEEKEND
SNOWSTORM WHILE THE OTHERS FORM A WEAK WAVE WELL OFFSHORE.
THE FORECAST FAVORS A MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN FAVORS A
CONSENSUS WITHOUT THE ECMWF OVER NEXT WEEKEND.
THE DAILIES...
TUESDAY...POSITION OF UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO FAVOR FORMATION OF
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SAID COASTAL LOW
THEN MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THIS WOULD
MAINTAIN AT LEAST WEAK LIFT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FGEN FIELDS
ARE MARGINAL BUT FAVOR SOUTH COASTAL SECTIONS AND ESPECIALLY CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS. NOT CONFIDENT ON SNOW SHOWERS VS A STRATIFORM
SNOW. WE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST
POPS IN THE MIDDAY/AFTERNOON. MOISTURE FIELDS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW INCHES...TECHNICALLY A MODERATE SNOW ACCUM...ACROSS
RI/SOUTHEAST MASS.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH AND THE
UPPER COLD POOL APPROACHES. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE IN THIS GROUP MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THIS
SUGGESTS A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. ONLY
LIMITED MIXING WEDNESDAY...TO 950 MB...WITH TEMPS SUPPORTING MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE 30S. DEEPER MIXING THURSDAY AS COLD ADVECTION STARTS.
MIXING REACHES ABOVE 900 MB THURSDAY WITH TEMPS SUPPORTING UPPER 20S-
LOWER 30S. WINDS IN THE THURSDAY MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST AT 25-30
MPH...SHOULD BE AVAILABLE AS NORTHWEST GUSTS.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY-SUNDAY... ARCTIC AIR POURS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND IS
WITH US THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MIXING WILL BRING 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE
SURFACE IN GUSTS. TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL FALL INTO THE -20S AND
SUGGEST MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 20S FRIDAY AND 15-25 SAT-SUN. GIVEN THE
SOURCE REGION OF THE AIRMASS...MODEL SUGGESTIONS OF MIN TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE NUMBERS EITHER SIDE OF ZERO LOOK REASONABLE. SUCH COLD AIR
ALOFT AND WINDS OVER 10 KT WILL GENERATE OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD KEEP THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE.
AS NOTED ABOVE...WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL SUITES TO SEE
IF THE 00Z ECMWF WEEKEND LOW IS A BLIP OR AN ACTUAL PROBLEM.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. SNOW OVERSPREADS THE I-95
CORRIDOR 13-14Z AND REACHES BACK INTO WESTERN MA BY 15Z OR 16Z.
THE SNOW WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WHERE 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHER LOCALIZED BANDS OF
HEAVY SNOW ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WORCESTER HILLS.
AS FOR CIGS/VSBYS...WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA/CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS AS VSBYS DROP TO ONE QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES. NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS...WITH THE STRONGEST OF THOSE WINDS AT NANTUCKET.
FURTHER NORTHWEST...A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40
KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...SO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALSO EXPECTED IN THESE
LOCATIONS.
TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WHILE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
COME TO AN END EARLY THIS EVENING...AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
PERSIST OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. STRONG NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AS STORM PULLS AWAY AND LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS.
NONETHELESS...WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 14 OR
15Z THIS MORNING. SNOW MAY FALL HEAVY AT TIMES WITH 1 TO 2 INCH
PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 40 KNOTS PERSIST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF
LIFR CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE AFTER 14 OR 15Z AS SNOW WORKS INTO
THE REGION.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH
HIGHEST CHANCE IN RI AND SOUTHEAST MASS. IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW
SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
25-30 KNOTS. OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS JUST OFF THE COAST WITH
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
***STRONG GALE TO STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 KNOTS AND SEAS
EXCEEDING 20 FEET EXPECTED ACROSS OUR EASTERN OUTER-WATERS LATER
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON***
POWERFUL 975 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK WILL COMBINED WITH A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
EASTERN CANADA. THE RESULT WILL BE STRONG NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 KNOTS...THE STRONGEST OF THOSE WINDS ACROSS OUR WATERS
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET. GALE AND STORM WARNINGS POSTED FOR ALL
WATERS WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO OVER 20 FEET ACROSS OUR
EASTERN WATERS BY AFTERNOON. HEAVY SNOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN
VISIBILITIES ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE WATERS. NONETHELESS...SEAS WILL
BE SLOW TO DIMINISH THOUGH WITH LEFT OVER SWELL AND PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST FETCH.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY BUT REMAIN 5 FEET OR HIGHER ON
THE EXPOSED WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.
WEDNESDAY...WINDS BECOME WEST LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. SEAS LINGER 5 FEET
OR HIGHER ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS EAST OF CAPE COD. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST
WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SEAS OF 5-7 FEET MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS...SUBSIDING FRIDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
***POCKETS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE SOUTH OF BOSTON
ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST***
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES SOUTH OF BOSTON THRU COASTAL
PLYMOUTH COUNTY TO CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET GIVEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF
STRONG WIND FIELD ACROSS THIS REGION. EXPECTING AREAS OF MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING IN THIS AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO MIDDAY
HIGH TIDE. LOW LEVEL WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG FROM BOSTON
NORTHWARD. THUS LESS STORM SURGE AND COASTAL FLOODING WILL LIKELY BE
MAINLY IN THE MINOR CATEGORY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT POCKETS OF LOW-
END MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. HIGH TIDE CYCLE OF GREATEST CONCERN
IS THE LATE THIS MORNING INTO MIDDAY...BASICALLY 9 AM TO 1 PM IS THE
TIMELINE.
EXPECTING A STORM SURGE OF BETWEEN 2.5 AND 3 FT ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA AND NEAR 2 FT FROM BOSTON NORTHWARD TO THE MA/NH BORDER. ETSS
WAS HIGHER THAN THE ESTOFS AND SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN NE WINDS WILL
GUSTS 45 TO 65 MPH. IN ADDITION LARGE WAVES IN EXCESS OF 20 FT JUST
OFFSHORE...WILL PROMOTE WAVE RUNUP PUSHING WAVES AND OVER SEAWALLS
AND OTHER STRUCTURES. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN POTENTIAL MODERATE
BEACH EROSION. AGAIN GREATEST IMPACTS FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM ALONG
PLYMOUTH COAST TO CAPE COD BAY TO NANTUCKET...WITH LESS IMPACTS
BOSTON NORTHWARD TO MA/NH BORDER.
WE MAY HAVE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE LATE EVENING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST. HOWEVER ASTRO TIDE IS
LOWER...LESS WINDS AND PRES RISES OVERSPREADING THE AREA...BUT A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ018-019-
021>024.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ019-
022-024.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ004>007-
012>017-020-026.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ007-015-016-023.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ002-003-
008>011.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ008.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-250-
254>256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-235-237.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ236.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/FRANK
NEAR TERM...WTB/FRANK/NOCERA
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/FRANK
MARINE...WTB/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
648 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF THE
OUTERBANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND FARTHER OUT TO
SEA TODAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT NEAR THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AFTER THIS LOW QUICKLY
MOVE OUT TO SEA EARLY TUESDAY, A WEAKER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
ORGANIZE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH LATE
FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE, A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE
IT INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF SHORE. STILL HAVEN`T SEEN PRECIP
PROPAGATE WEST FAR ENOUGH TO MOVE ON SHORE. HOWEVER, A BAND HAS
BECOME MORE DEFINED IN THE RADAR MOSAIC, AND STILL EXPECT THIS TO
MOVE ONTO THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY SHORE NEAR DAY BREAK. HRRR AND RAP
SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS WELL. SO WILL CONTINUE THE THREE COUNTY
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GENERALLY ONE TO 3 INCHES WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE SHORE.
FOR THE REST OF THE REGION, EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
DAY. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE WINDS. ALREADY WINDS AT THE SHORE ARE
GUSTING 30 TO 35 KT (35 TO 40 MPH). HOWEVER, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD BE DECREASING QUICKLY AFTER DAY BREAK AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY,
SO THE WINDS WE ARE SEEING NOW ARE LIKELY GOING TO BE THE STRONGEST
WINDS OF THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION, GENERALLY SNOW OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX WILL START TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LEADING
TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE REGION. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN
WELL WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME, SO DO NOT EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO BE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND THE MODELS HAVE
IN FACT TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER THROUGH THIS PERIOD. EVEN SO, THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION COULD SEE AS MUCH AS 4 INCHES OF SNOW IF
MESOSCALE BANDS DEVELOP EARLY ENOUGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SECONDARY COASTAL LOW THAT DEEPENS RAPIDLY OFF THE NC OUTERBANKS
MONDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOO FAR OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY TO
DIRECTLY IMPACT US. HOWEVER, WE AREN`T OUT OF THE WOODS AS MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW REORGANIZING AS IT MOVES OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST ON TUESDAY. THIS SEEMS LIKE A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO
SINCE THE INITIAL MILLER-B LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WELL OUT TO
SEA (LEAVING SOME SEPARATION BETWEEN THE TWO) AND THERE LOOKS TO
BE ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
LOW THAT WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO HEIGHT FALLS AND COASTAL
CYCLOGENESIS. IN THESE TYPES OF SETUPS, ENHANCED FRONTOGENETICAL
LIFT AND MESOSCALE BANDING IS FAVORED ON THE NWRN SIDE OF THE LOW.
THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAD COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE BANDING IN THEIR MASS/THERMAL FIELDS THAT
PRODUCES A RELATIVELY NARROW WEST-EAST ORIENTED BAND OF HEAVIER
QPF OVER THE NRN DELMARVA/SERN PA/SRN NJ. PARTIAL THICKNESSES
IMPLY ALL SNOW. HOWEVER, THE CURRENT FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S FOR THESE AREAS OF CONCERN IMPLY THE LOWER BOUNDARY
LAYER IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. THERE IS CERTAINLY A
POTENTIAL THAT SOME RAIN MIXES IN AND/OR SNOW HAS A TOUGH TIME
ACCUMULATING...BUT ONLY IF THE INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP IS LIGHT.
IF THE HEAVIER SNOW DOES MATERIALIZE, THEN DYNAMICAL COOLING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THIS ISSUE.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH WPC AND NEIGHBORING WFOS, WE DECIDED IT WAS
BEST TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR FAR SERN PA, NRN DELMARVA AND
SRN NJ. THE WHOLE AREA IN THE WATCH WILL LIKELY NOT SEE WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWFALL (AND SOME MAYBE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS) BUT THIS IS
WHERE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR 5 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL
EXISTS IN A RATHER NARROW SWATH SOMEWHERE APPROXIMATELY AS FAR
NORTH AS PHILADELPHIA AND AS FAR SOUTH AS DOVER. ANOTHER
CHALLENGE WITH THIS EVENT IS TRYING TO PINPOINT THE TIMING OF THE
HEAVIER SNOW. THE WATCH GOES STARTS LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES 28
HOURS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A LONG DURATION
EVENT BUT WE WENT WIDE IN TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY IN
WHEN THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND DEVELOPS. ONE CAMP OF MODELS INDICATE
IT WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WHILE OTHER
CLUSTER FAVORS LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
FARTHER NORTH INTO NERN PA AND NWRN NJ, WHERE THE POSSIBILITY FOR
HEAVIER SNOW IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY AT THIS POINT, LIGHT SNOW MAY
ONLY ACCUMULATE AN INCH OR TWO TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER,
WE`LL STILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE HEAVIER
SNOW BAND SHIFTING NORTHWARD. VERY FEW SCENARIOS CAN BE RULED OUT
AT THIS POINT.
THE UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY OPENS UP AND THE WAVE PASSES THRU THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A KICKER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. WE WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THIS TIME BUT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
MINOR. THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN ITS WAKE, THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. TEMPS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S NORTH AND WEST OF THE FALL
LINE.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY. A
SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
BASE OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AND ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE
POLAR AIRMASS. FOR THE MOST PART, MODELS ARE SUPPRESSING THE TRACK
OF THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND DEEPENING IT TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO BRING
THE DEEPER ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER, THE 00Z
ECMWF, WITH SUPPORT FROM SOME OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, ARE SHOWING A
DEEPER AND MORE NORTHERN SYSTEM, WHICH COULD BRING YET ANOTHER
ROUND OF AT SNOW TO OUR REGION.
A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE IT INTO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES COULD BE 15-20F BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND
AND WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES (KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KILG) AND THE
WESTERN TAF SITES (KABE AND KRDG) - MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z. AFTER THAT, AN APPROACHING TROUGH
WILL BRING LOWER CEILINGS, AND EVENTUALLY LOWER VISIBILITIES WITH
SNOW. LOWER CEILINGS COULD START TO MOVE IN BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z, BUT
DO NOT EXPECT THE SNOW TO MOVE IN UNTIL AFTER 00Z. ONCE SNOW
BEGINS TO MOVE IN, EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF SNOW EXPECTED. THE SNOW MAY
MIX WITH RAIN AT MIV AND ACY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY ESPECIALLY AT
TIMES WHEN IT IS LIGHTER. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING AND OVERALL IMPACTS AT THE AIRPORTS BUT WE CAN
SAY THAT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT A NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW
WILL DEVELOP SOMETIME DURING THE PERIOD NEAR THE ILG-PHL-ACY
CORRIDOR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR
LIFR IF THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND DEVELOPS.
WEDNESDAY...LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY, THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR. BREEZY WLY WINDS
GUSTING TO 25 KT.
THURSDAY...VFR AND BREEZY NW WINDS GUSTING AOA 30 KT. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH.
FRIDAY...CURRENTLY FORECASTING VFR BUT WE ARE WATCHING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO DEVELOP NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
BRING MORE SNOW INTO THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
&&
.MARINE...
A GALE WARNING CONTINUES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. HAVE ALREADY SEEN
SEVERAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST REPORT GALE GUSTS. EXPECT THESE
STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY BEFORE DROPPING OFF
SHARPLY. ALTHOUGH SCA CONDITIONS FOR SEAS AND WINDS MAY LINGER FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY.
ON THE DELAWARE BAY, EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNRISE. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THEY MAY LINTER FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS BEYOND SUNRISE.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HAZARDOUS
SEAS AND PERIODS OF 25 KT GUSTS. THERE COULD BE A TEMPORARY LULL IN
THE WINDS ON TUESDAY CLOSE TO WHERE THE LOW DEVELOPS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SOLID SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GALES ARE
CERTAINLY A POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY NW WINDS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
UPDATE TO ADD ATLANTIC, SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON, AND OCEAN
COUNTIES TO THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR BOTH TIDE CYCLES THIS
MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR OVER EASTERN QUEBEC/LABRADOR WHILE LOW
PRESSURE PASSING OFFSHORE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDERGOES
EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING THROUGH TODAY. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH
REMAINING TO OUR NORTH, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE OUTER BANKS TONIGHT AND PASS OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST OF OUR
REGION DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN AN
ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST THRU TUESDAY, WITH ONLY A BRIEF PAUSE
THIS AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY TONIGHT, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
ADDING TO THE TIDAL FLOODING POTENTIAL, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL
BE HIGH DUE TO THE NEW MOON TODAY.
FOR MUCH OF THE JERSEY SHORE, WE ALREADY SAW A LARGE DEPARTURE
WITH THE LOW TIDE EARLIER, AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED SHARPLY AND
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THUS, MODEL
GUIDANCE AND A LOCAL REGRESSION PROGRAM INDICATE THAT A DEPARTURE
OF OVER 2 FEET IS POSSIBLE WITH THE NEXT HIGH TIDE, OR JUST ENOUGH
TO REACH MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS. WITH THE CONTINUED
NORTHEAST FLOW AND HIGH WAVE ACTION, EXPECT THAT IT COULD BE A
SIMILAR STORY FOR TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDE, THOUGH THAT IS THE LOWER OF
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. THUS THE WARNING INCLUDES BOTH HIGH TIDE
CYCLES TODAY. CONTINUED THE WATCH FOR TOMORROW`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN NJ SHORE AND THE DELAWARE COASTS...WITH HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, WE EXPECT A SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FT THIS MORNING.
WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. WE
HAVE ALSO TEMPERED DOWN THE HIGH-BIASED ET AND ESTOFS GUIDANCE DUE
TO A RESIDUAL BIAS OF NEARLY 1 FOOT IN SPOTS. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT, AS WELL AS DELAWARE BAY. THERE IS A
BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER WE REACH THE MINOR THRESHOLD AT
REEDY POINT, WHICH IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON EKMAN TRANSPORT IN A
NORTHEAST FLOW, BUT WE EXPECT IT TO BE CLOSE NONETHELESS.
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT FOR THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE.
FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT/LONGER
FETCH TO THE WIND WILL HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST,
INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY, AND PORTIONS OF THE TIDAL DELAWARE. WE AGREE
WITH THE STRONGER GFS WINDS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS REGARDING A BROAD LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST, WHICH MAY ALLOW WINDS TO QUICKLY
RELAX NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE, PARTICULARLY DELMARVA AND FAR
SOUTHERN NJ. NEVERTHELESS, ASIDE FROM A BRIEF LULL IN THE FLOW
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY MONDAY NIGHT, WE`LL HAVE HAD NEARLY
48 HOURS DURATION OF ONSHORE FLOW, WHICH WILL MAKE FOR HIGHER TIDAL
DEPARTURES COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING, IN ADDITION TO THE
ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDES. IN TERMS OF GUIDANCE, WE SIDED MORE
WITH THE HIGHER ETSS SURGE OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET, EVEN CONSIDERING THE
AFOREMENTIONED RESIDUAL. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE FOR THE NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT WITH
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NJ. ELSEWHERE, WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED, PERHAPS UP TO PHILADELPHIA, GIVEN THE
MORE EASTERLY FLOW UP DELAWARE BAY. FOR THESE AREAS, A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-101-102.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NJZ012>014-020-022-025>027.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ012>014-020-026.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ021-023-
024.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ016.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR NJZ016>023-027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR DEZ002>004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
DEZ001.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR DEZ001-002.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR MDZ008-012-015.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...JOHNSON/KLEIN
MARINE...JOHNSON/KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1040 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
W/SW FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT...
BECOMING BREEZY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY. HI
RES VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS GULF STRATOCU PUSHING ONSHORE THE FL GULF
COAST AND THIS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON SO
AFTER A SUNNY MORNING...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON. PROSPECT FOR RAIN CONTINUES TO LOOK TOO LOW TO MENTION
THRU THE AFTN. LOCAL WRF AND HRRR MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LIGHT
PRECIP MOVING INTO THE FA THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT ASSOCD WITH THE
NEXT COLD FRONT. AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LOW...LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH.
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING QUICKLY THROUGH THE 50S THIS MORNING WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE MID 60S AREAWIDE THIS AFTN...WITH A FEW UPPER 60S
POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH MILDER THAN YESTERDAY...THESE TEMPS ARE STILL
5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO CURRENT FCST.
&&
.AVIATION... VFR CONDS GENERALLY EXPECTED THRU 12Z TUE. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING BKN-OVC INTO TONIGHT... BUT
CIGS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 040 AGL. MAY SEE TEMPO MVFR
CONDS WITH -SHRA AS THEY PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND REMAIN
ELEVATED AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...VEERING TO THE
NORTHWEST. WIND SPEEDS UP TO 15-20 KTS GENERALLY EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT TIMES.
&&
.MARINE... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT COASTAL WATERS FCST.
TODAY/TONIGHT...BOATING CONDITIONS REMAIN HAZARDOUS TODAY...BECOMING
VERY HAZARDOUS INTO TONIGHT AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AND MOVES SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS. W/NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS THIS
MORNING INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...REACHING UP TO
25-30 KNOTS OFFSHORE WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE EXPECTED.
THESE WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS BACK UP TO 10-11 FEET OFFSHORE. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES OVER THE WATERS WITH A GALE WARNING NOW
GOING INTO EFFECT OFFSHORE STARTING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...
REACHING THE MID 60S...AND WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA
EXPECTING TO SEE MIN RH VALUES AS LOW AS THE MID 30S. IN
ADDITION...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON
GENERATING EXCELLENT DISPERSION VALUES AND INCREASE FIRE
SENSITIVITY. HOWEVER ERC VALUES REMAIN VERY LOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 65 43 58 36 / 10 30 10 10
MCO 65 45 59 41 / 10 30 10 10
MLB 65 44 61 42 / 0 20 10 10
VRB 65 45 63 44 / 0 20 10 10
LEE 66 44 58 40 / 10 30 10 10
SFB 66 43 59 38 / 10 30 10 10
ORL 65 44 59 42 / 10 30 10 10
FPR 66 48 63 44 / 0 20 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLAGLER
BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN
INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
&&
$$
KELLY/SPRATT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
948 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
...Gusty Winds Expected This Afternoon...
.Near Term [Through Today]...
The main concern for today is the chance for gusty winds this
afternoon. A cold front stretches from the Great Lakes southward
to Louisiana and will push rapidly eastward today. There is not
much moisture return ahead of it, so only a few scattered light
showers are expected this afternoon across the area with most
places remaining dry. However, it is a fairly vigorous front with
gusty winds expected this afternoon behind it. The question is how
gusty will the winds be? Looking at some forecast sounding in
BUFKIT for this afternoon, the models are forecasting unusually
deep mixing heights for this time of year around 7000 ft with very
steep low level lapse rates. As an example, the 13z HRRR is
forecasting the 0-3 km lapse rate to be 9.0 C/km at Dothan at 20z
and 8.9 C/km at Albany. This is a very favorable pattern for
mixing down strong wind gusts to the surface. The momentum
transfer tool in BUFKIT is indicating the potential for gusts to
peak near 40 mph from mid to late afternoon across a large portion
of the area, which happens to be our local wind advisory criteria.
As a result, the wind advisory has been expanded to include a
larger part of the area for this afternoon.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 12z Tuesday] VFR conditions will prevail today, but winds
will be gusty this afternoon with frequent gusts around 25 knots
and peak gusts near 35 knots possible. Winds will diminish
around sunset.
&&
.Prev Discussion [620 AM EST]...
.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
The long wave trough over the Mississippi Valley will amplify as
it moves east and promises a chilly stretch of weather for the
eastern Gulf Coast. A cold front will push east of the area this
evening, but any light showers associated with it should move
southeast of the area early in the evening. Some parts of the area
north of a line from Crestview to Dothan to Albany could see a
brief light freeze by dawn. Since the required 2-hr durations are
questionable and we have seen many freezes already this winter, we
will hold off on any watch or warning product. Winds will remain
around 10 mph through the night with wind chill readings dropping
into the upper 20s in FL to the lower 20s north of the state line.
This does not quite meet wind advisory criteria. A widespread
freeze looks more likely for Tuesday night so look for future
watches or warnings for that period. We could even flirt with wind
chill advisory criteria (20 degrees or less) by daybreak across
our northern zones. Daytime temperatures will also be chilly with
highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s north and in the lower to mid
50s south.
.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
A mean long wave trough will remain over the eastern U.S. for much
of this period, so we are not looking for any big warm ups.
Another widespread freeze is expected Wednesday night. The trough
will deamplify a bit and with surface high pressure moving east of
the area, we should stay above freezing Thursday night with
daytime highs on Friday close to normal in the 60s. A clipper
system will then bring another cold front through the area Friday
evening, but temperatures will only drop off slightly behind it
for the weekend.
.Marine...
Winds will quickly increase today ahead of a cold front and then
remain elevated behind the front into Tuesday. It still appears
that frequent gale-force gusts are likely with sustained gales
possible from late in the day today through the overnight. Gale
warnings are now in effect for the entire marine area. While gales
will no longer be expected past Tuesday evening, small craft
advisory conditions could persist into Wednesday night. Much lower
winds and seas are then expected on Thursday as high pressure
moves over the waters.
.Fire Weather...
High dispersions will continue through Tuesday due to strong winds.
Dry air will remain in place for the next several days. On Monday
RH values will be in the 30s. Red Flag Warning criteria will not
be met.
.Hydrology...
Many rivers are high or in flood stage at this time. Most area
rivers are currently steady or falling. No significant rainfall is
expected through the next week.
On the Choctawhatchee River, Caryville has crested and is slowly
falling. Near Bruce, the river is in moderate flood and is
expected to crest at 15.5 feet late tonight.
The Apalachicola River at Blountstown has crested and is falling
slowly, but will remain in flood stage all week.
A warning has been issued for the Ochlockonee River at Concord as
it continues to rise. It is forecast to crest at 26.0 feet by this
morning.
The Withlacoochee River at Valdosta has crested and is falling.
Further downstream the Withlacoochee is still rising.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 63 34 53 30 54 / 20 0 0 0 0
Panama City 59 40 51 38 53 / 20 0 0 0 0
Dothan 58 31 48 29 50 / 20 0 0 0 0
Albany 58 31 48 27 50 / 20 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 62 34 51 29 52 / 40 10 0 0 0
Cross City 64 37 55 31 56 / 30 20 0 0 0
Apalachicola 63 40 54 38 55 / 20 10 10 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory from 1 PM EST /noon CST/ this afternoon to 7 PM
EST /6 PM CST/ this evening FOR Calhoun-Central Walton-
Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-
Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Wakulla-
Jackson-Leon-Liberty-Madison-North Walton-Washington.
High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning FOR Coastal Bay-
Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.
Wind Advisory until 9 PM EST /8 PM CST/ this evening FOR Coastal
Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.
High Surf Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Tuesday
FOR Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf.
GA...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST this evening
FOR Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-
Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-
Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-
Tift-Turner-Worth.
AL...Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening FOR
Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.
GM...Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Tuesday FOR
Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
Ochlockonee River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from
Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM.
Gale Warning until 9 PM EST Tuesday FOR Coastal Waters From
Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal
waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1005 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 244 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
AN UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES EARLY THIS WEEK AND INTERACT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. THE
RESULT WILL BE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CHANCES LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. GUSTY
WINDS IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS COULD RESULT IN SUDDEN REDUCTIONS
IN THE VISIBILITY.
VERY COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WITH SUB ZERO
WIND CHILLS POSSIBLE BY OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE LATE
WEEK AND WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SLOWLY MODERATE AND REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
INITIAL BAND OF SNOW THAT HAS DROPPED A FEW TENTHS ACROSS EASTERN
COUNTIES THIS MORNING IS NOW ABOUT TO SHIFT INTO WESTERN OHIO.
STARTING TO SEE SLOW EXPANSION TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BACK
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND EXPECT THIS
ONLY TO INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE WABASH VALLEY.
15Z TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 30S.
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE UPDATE IS TO BETTER TIME THE TEMP FALLS AND
MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY. COLD FRONT WILL SWING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AND BECOMING GUSTY IN ITS WAKE. AS
STATED...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND LOCALIZED BURSTS OF SNOW
HIGHLIGHTED BY POCKETS OF 30+ DBZ RETURNS ALREADY EXPANDING OVER
WESTERN COUNTIES. MORE EXPANSIVE AND INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS STILL
SLATED TO ARRIVE FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SQUALLS. HAVE
SEEN BRIEF DROPS TO UNDER 1SM IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THIS ONLY TO WORSEN
AS IT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 18Z.
WHILE TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEY
WILL LIKELY BE MITIGATED TO SOME DEGREE BY THE NEAR SURFACE TEMPS
REMAINING NEAR TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SHOULD END ANY
RISE IN TEMPS...BUT IT APPEARS THE SURGE OF STRONGEST COLD
ADVECTION AND CONSEQUENTLY FASTEST TEMP DROPS LOOKS ORIENTED FOR
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SLOWER TEMP FALLS
ELSEWHERE. UTILIZED HOURLY RAP GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT FROM
CURRENT TEMPS AND TRIED TO TIME THE TEMP FALLS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT EVERYONE WILL SLIP BELOW FREEZING NEAR OR JUST
AFTER SUNSET WITH MORE EXTENSIVE TEMP FALLS COMMENCING TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SPS FOR THE HIGH IMPACT SNOW SHOWERS AND
SQUALLS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A MORE INTENSIVE LOOK AT THE
NEED FOR AN IMPACT BASED ADVISORY FOCUSED OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AFTER THE FULL 12Z MODEL SUITE ARRIVES.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
BRIEF SNOW SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. AFTER THAT...SNOW CHANCES WILL LOWER AND WILL SHIFT
MAINLY TO OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS LAKE EFFECT THREAT CONTINUES.
WIND CHILLS WILL THEN BECOME CENTER STAGE.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO
NORTHWESTERN OHIO BY TUESDAY MORNING AND THE APPALACHIANS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...DECENT NORTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL FINALLY WEAKEN TOWARD THURSDAY
MORNING. SO...STARTED OFF WITH LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MAINLY EAST OF A BEDFORD TO TERRE HAUTE LINE. THEN...CHANCE POPS ARE
IN ORDER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES. BY WEDNESDAY...WENT DRY EXCEPT CHANCE OF SNOW NORTHEAST.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD BE BACKING AND LET UP ENOUGH TO PULL LAKE
EFFECT POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FAR NORTHEAST.
BUFKIT WAS SHOWING SNOW RATIOS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 TO 1 TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THUS...DESPITE WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING AND RESULTANT LOW
QPF...HIGH SNOW RATIOS...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETERS SUGGEST STORM SNOWFALL TOTALS OF UP TO 3 INCHES AND
LOCALLY HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND EAST OF KOKOMO AND RUSHVILLE
WITH PROJECTED AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF TO AN INCH OR 2 SOUTHWEST OF
BEDFORD AND CLINTON. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS WILL CAUSE
BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
WITH COLD ADVECTION AND EXPECTED SNOW COVER...WILL GO AT OR BELOW
00Z MOS. SHOULD SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS BY OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT. NEGATIVE WIND CHILLS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING RUSH.
AN ADVISORY WILL BE AN OPTION LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...BUT AFTER
COORDINATION...FEEL THE BEST OPTION FOR NOW IS UPDATING THE STRONGLY
WORDED SPECIAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...WEATHER
STORY AND TWITTER REGARDING THE SNOW. WILL ALSO HIT THE COLD
TEMPERATURES HARD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 217 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
ON THE LARGE SCALE...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS. DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN
THE DETAILS.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...WITH PERHAPS SOME RISE IN HEIGHTS LATE. MODELS ARE HAVING
DISAGREEMENTS ON ENERGY RIDING AROUND THE TROUGH AND THUS CHANCES
FOR SNOW DURING THE PERIOD.
THAT FAR OUT...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE DETAILS AND SEE NO
REASON TO PLAY FAVORITES AT THIS TIME. THUS STUCK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION.
COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH SOME
REINFORCING COLD AIR MOVING IN THANKS TO THE TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 081200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 930 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
DROPPED CURRENT CONDITIONS AT KIND TO IFR FROM CEILINGS BUT BRING IT
BACK UP TO MVFR IN ABOUT AN HOUR AND BRING IN WIND GUSTS THEN. ALSO
ADDED A TEMPO GROUP WITH IFR SNOW SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS STARTING
AFTER 19Z. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
PREDOMINANT MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...BUT HIGH VARIABILITY EXPECTED
IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN MVFR
CONDITIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIMING OF LOWEST VISIBILITY
AND POTENTIAL PERIODS OF IFR.
FIRST BAND OF RAIN/SNOW IS EXITING THE SITES...BUT SCATTERED SNOW
CONTINUES BACK INTO ILLINOIS. ONE SURGE OF COLDER AIR IS BACK ACROSS
WESTERN ILLINOIS AND EASTERN IOWA. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE LOWER
VISIBILITY VALUES LATER THIS MORNING. MORE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON.
RATHER THAN USE TEMPOS THROUGHOUT...TRIED TO CAPTURE THE BASICS OF
WHAT WILL HAPPEN TODAY. WENT WITH LOWEST VISIBILITY VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON. NOTE THAT ANY STRONGER SNOW SHOWER COULD PRODUCE IFR
CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE A LULL IN
SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE THIS EVENING...SO WENT BACK TO VCSH MENTION
THEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...50/CP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1104 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
...Forecast Update...
Updated at 1100 AM EST Mon Feb 8 2016
Watching upstream to see how plentiful/widespread snow showers
become this afternoon. This morning`s snows had some 1-2 inch totals
but roads came away looking clear afterward. Think that would be the
case initially again with showers mid to late afternoon, ahead of
the temperature drop associated with our next cold front passing.
Coordinated with PAH and IND and decided to continue our special
weather statement wording for now, but be ready to upgrade to an
advisory for areas outside our current advisory, should snow rates
show up heavy enough and/or temperatures drop faster than expected,
and consequently cause more of a road impact. Otherwise will run
another update blending temperatures with ongoing conditions and
matching current radar trends.
Updated at 755 AM EST Mon Feb 8 2016
A webcam up in French Lick as well as a few others have indicated a
dusting of snow. Have updated the forecast for current radar trends
as well as bumped down temperatures a degree or two from the model
blend.
Updated at 655 AM EST Mon Feb 8 2016
As of 645 am, radar imagery showed an area of light rain moving east
out of southeast Indiana/east central KY and another area of a mix
of rain/snow moving into southwest Indiana and west central KY.
Increased POPs to better depict these areas of precip moving through
this morning. The latest HRRR run has a good handle on it. The
second batch of precip is expected to stay a mix of rain/snow as it
moves through southern IN/central KY this morning, but it should
have little to no impact on the morning commute as sfc temps are
above freezing and will likely rise a bit after sunrise. Also road
temps are in the upper 30s/lower 40s which should prevent any travel
hazards this morning.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Mon Feb 8 2016
...Winter Weather Advisory this Evening - Tuesday Evening...
The biggest change for this forecast package will be to expand the
Winter Wx Advy westward into the Louisville Metro area. According
to the latest model data, a change over from rain to snow is still
expected this evening probably during the latter half of the evening
rush hour. Although snow shower activity will be hit and miss, the
latest WRFs and NAM indicate sct-numerous snow showers over our
region this evening. Soundings still exhibit a convective nature
with bursts of moderate snow reducing vsbys and causing quick, light
accums so feel the risk of impact to the evening rush warrants the
advisory expansion. The Winter Wx Advy expansion will extend from
Lake Cumberland region to Louisville Metro to Scott County, IN and
points eastward. According to the latest model data, this area also
has the best chance at seeing 2-2.5 day (Mon evening - Wed morning)
snow accums between 1-3 inches with the highest numbers still
expected in the Bluegrass region. Also, some of the latest model
data indicates a slightly longer period of light accumulating snow
into Wed morning especially across the Bluegrass region. A time
extension to the advisory was considered, but in coordination with
neighboring offices decided to hold off for now. Will need to
consider the time extension again though especially for our east
central KY counties and especially if Wed morning commute looks to
be impacted.
==================
Mon-Tues Overview
==================
An anomalous upper low over the Midwest with many shortwaves
rotating around it will cause on and off showery activity today
through Tues. With boundary layer temps in the upper 30s/lower 40s
through this afternoon, many locations will see mainly rain showers
this morning/afternoon. Colder air will filter into the region from
W to E across the area late afternoon through this evening changing
rain showers to snow showers. P-type will remain snow showers Mon
night-Tues as the cold airmass settles in the region. Model
soundings indicate that late this afternoon/evening and Tues
afternoon/evening may be time periods where snow shower intensity
increases to moderate in spots causing travel difficulties. Light
accumulating snows this evening through Tues look to total up to 2
inches. These accums will be spotty however in the showery regime.
Temps should top out in the mid 30s to lower 40s early-mid afternoon
today before taking a dive into the lower 30s this evening. Lows
tonight should drop into the lower 20s...possibly colder in
locations that see a light accumulation of snow this
evening/overnight. Highs for Tues will be limited to the mid to
upper 20s.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 325 AM EST Mon Feb 8 2016
Tuesday Night - Wednesday...
Light on and off snow showers will continue Tues night into Wed in
the active northwest flow although the upper trough will begin to
pull farther east of the region by mid week. As mentioned in the
short term discussion, the Winter Wx Advy may need a time extension
for east central KY as light accumulating snow will continue through
Wed am and may impact the Wed morning commute. Total snow accums
through Wed should range from 1-3 inches with some spots that get
missed seeing less than that and others that see repeated bouts of
snow showers seeing a little more than that. Low clouds and
flurries should stick around through much of the day Wed and into
Wed evening.
Temps will be quite chilly for mid week with highs on Wed only
reaching the lower 20s possibly some upper teens over southern IN.
Wed night lows will drop into the upper single digits and lower 10s
with winds chills near zero.
Thursday - Sunday...
Models diverge for the latter half of the week. Both the GFS/ECMWF
have a signal for a late week clipper. However, the GFS brings it
through on Thu/Thu night and the ECMWF brings it through on Fri/Fri
night. Will stick with low POPs in the Fri/Fri night time frame as
that has been the more consistent signal. Of note though, ECMWF has
a very robust clipper in that time frame and won`t totally buy that
intensity quite yet. Temps look to moderate a little for Thu/Fri
with highs in the 30s by Fri.
Sat/Sun look dry but another surge of cold air is apparent in the
long range models with the ECMWF being the coldest. Another
potential wintry weather system that has had a consistent signal in
the long range data may affect the Ohio Valley the following
Mon/Tues.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 615 AM EST Mon Feb 8 2016
A couple waves of precip, mainly rain, will move through central
Kentucky this morning, gradually moistening the low level dry
environment. VFR ceilings will lower throughout the day, dropping
into the MVFR range solidly this afternoon as the upper level system
passes overhead. Plan on scattered to numerous showers developing by
19-20z. This should be initially a rain/snow mix but go over to all
snow by 21z or so. Periods of IFR are expected in the heavier snow
showers. Precipitation should linger into the evening hours before
diminishing however lower ceilings will persist through the end of
the TAF period.
Winds will be out of the west for the entire period, gusting to near
20 kts this afternoon.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/ this afternoon
to 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ Tuesday for KYZ029>043-045>049-
054>057-065>067-077-078-081-082.
IN...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST
Tuesday for INZ078-079-091-092.
&&
$$
Updates........RJS/AMS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......ZT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1016 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
HAVE UPDATED TO FINE TUNE THE TIMING OF THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP
HEADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ALSO BLENDED OBSERVED TEMPS
AND SKY CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 836 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ALREADY MOVING IN FROM
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THE
EAST. SNOW HAS BEEN MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...SO HAVE ALLOWED FOR MORE OF A SNOW MENTION THROUGH THE
REST OF THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RECOVER TO THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40...ALTHOUGH DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SHOWERS
AND THICKER CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN...THESE HIGHS MIGHT BE A BIT
GENEROUS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
VALLEY TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED IN THE PAST HOUR...HOWEVER
BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP RUNS...AM STILL CONCERNED FOR
SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN THE EAST POTENTIALLY ENDING UP WITH A
LIGHT GLAZE. AS SUCH...HAVE HOISTED A SHORT FUSE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. IF THE BETTER WARMING
TRENDS CONTINUE LIKE THEY HAVE IN THE PAST HOUR...THEN THIS WILL
LIKELY GET DROPPED BEFORE EXPIRING.
ONCE THIS FIRST BATCH OF RAIN DEPARTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THERE
WILL BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...UNTIL A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE LAPSE RATES STEEPEN UP
QUITE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER...WITH THE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S FOR MOST TODAY...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY HOLDING OFF FOR MOST PLACES UNTIL DUSK OR SLIGHTLY
THEREAFTER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AS THE COLUMN COOLS QUICKER ALOFT.
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS WILL KICK IN TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY DEEPENS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES ROTATE THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY. STORM TOTALS STILL LOOK TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TAKING A NOSE DIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
READINGS FALLING BELOW FREEZING BY THIS EVENING...AND THEN INTO
THE 20S THROUGH TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE SIMILAR EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN BUT
DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST 72 HOURS OR SO OF THE
FORECAST. BROAD MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL IMPULSES
ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE. MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE
A LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE THAT MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY
WEATHER FOR THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS BOTH RUNS THE 0Z ECMWF
AND GFS HAVE DIVERGED FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS OF 24 HOUR
BACK. THE 0/06Z GFS HAS TRENDED FASTER...MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS...HARDLY PRODUCING ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE 0Z ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM...CARRYING A DEEPENING SFC
WAVE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. CONSEQUENTLY THE ECMWF
ADVERTISES A MORE FAVORABLE PATH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL AND CURRENTLY ADVERTISES SUCH. HOWEVER...OVERALL
CONFIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO RUN LOW WITH EITHER SOLUTION UNTIL
THERE IS BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 836 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
THE PASSING COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT TEMPORARY IFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE
AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR BEHIND THE INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY...BEFORE CEILINGS DROP OFF ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THERE
MAY EVEN BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AT TIMES. INCOMING COLDER AIR WILL
THEN CHANGE ANY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS TOWARDS
DUSK...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL AVERAGE AT 5 TO 10 KTS OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH
TUESDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-111-
114-116.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ088-118-
120.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ104-106>110-112-113-115-117-119.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ087.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL/GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
836 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 836 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ALREADY MOVING IN FROM
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THE
EAST. SNOW HAS BEEN MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...SO HAVE ALLOWED FOR MORE OF A SNOW MENTION THROUGH THE
REST OF THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RECOVER TO THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40...ALTHOUGH DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SHOWERS
AND THICKER CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN...THESE HIGHS MIGHT BE A BIT
GENEROUS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
VALLEY TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED IN THE PAST HOUR...HOWEVER
BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP RUNS...AM STILL CONCERNED FOR
SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN THE EAST POTENTIALLY ENDING UP WITH A
LIGHT GLAZE. AS SUCH...HAVE HOISTED A SHORT FUSE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. IF THE BETTER WARMING
TRENDS CONTINUE LIKE THEY HAVE IN THE PAST HOUR...THEN THIS WILL
LIKELY GET DROPPED BEFORE EXPIRING.
ONCE THIS FIRST BATCH OF RAIN DEPARTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THERE
WILL BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...UNTIL A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE LAPSE RATES STEEPEN UP
QUITE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER...WITH THE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S FOR MOST TODAY...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY HOLDING OFF FOR MOST PLACES UNTIL DUSK OR SLIGHTLY
THEREAFTER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AS THE COLUMN COOLS QUICKER ALOFT.
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS WILL KICK IN TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY DEEPENS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES ROTATE THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY. STORM TOTALS STILL LOOK TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TAKING A NOSE DIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
READINGS FALLING BELOW FREEZING BY THIS EVENING...AND THEN INTO
THE 20S THROUGH TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE SIMILAR EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN BUT
DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST 72 HOURS OR SO OF THE
FORECAST. BROAD MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL IMPULSES
ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE. MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE
A LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE THAT MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY
WEATHER FOR THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS BOTH RUNS THE 0Z ECMWF
AND GFS HAVE DIVERGED FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS OF 24 HOUR
BACK. THE 0/06Z GFS HAS TRENDED FASTER...MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS...HARDLY PRODUCING ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE 0Z ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM...CARRYING A DEPENING SFC
WAVE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. CONSEQUENTLY THE ECMWF
ADVERTISES A MORE FAVORABLE PATH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL AND CURRENTLY ADVERTISES SUCH. HOWEVER...OVERALL
CONFIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO RUN LOW WITH EITHER SOLUTION UNTIL
THERE IS BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 836 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
THE PASSING COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT TEMPORARY IFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE
AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR BEHIND THE INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY...BEFORE CEILINGS DROP OFF ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THERE
MAY EVEN BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AT TIMES. INCOMING COLDER AIR WILL
THEN CHANGE ANY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS TOWARDS
DUSK...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL AVERAGE AT 5 TO 10 KTS OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH
TUESDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-111-
114-116.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ088-118-
120.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ104-106>110-112-113-115-117-119.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ087.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
555 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 555 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
Updated aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
The leading edge of a much colder air mass was pushing just east
of the forecast area early this morning. In the upper levels, a
deep area of low pressure was positioned over the Great Lakes
region. This low is forecast to push south into the Ohio Valley
over the next 24 to 36 hours as a blast of Arctic air wraps around
on the west side of the low. As a result, temperatures today will
fall through early morning--then should remain nearly steady or
continue a slow fall into the afternoon. Northwest winds will be
quite strong, with sustained readings of 15 to 20 mph and gusts as
high as 30 mph.
Moisture wrapping around the back side of the low will result in
scattered to numerous snow showers through the day. Across the
southern Pennyrile region of western Kentucky, a mix of rain or
snow is possible early on. But even there, temperatures by the
latter half of the morning should be cold enough for light snow.
The chance of snow showers will continue across most of the area
tonight, then gradually taper off from west to east on Tuesday.
Gradual clearing from west to east should follow Tuesday night and
Wednesday.
Overall, precipitation is forecast to be rather light, though
some bursts of moderate snow are certainly possible from time to
time. Any accumulation should be relatively minor and confined to
portions of southwest Indiana, southern Illinois, and western
Kentucky. As much as an inch is certainly possible over eastern
portions of the area. However, given the low moisture content and
wind-driven nature of this light powdery snow, we do not expect
much impact at this time.
Temperatures will remain bitterly cold through the short term.
In fact, highs are only forecast in the 20s across much of the
area Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night should drop into
the teens. With a persistent northwest wind, wind chill readings
by daybreak Wednesday are forecast from 5 below to 5 above zero.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 325 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
Much of the long term will continue to be categorized by a cold
weather regime as one Canadian high after another plunges southeast
into the Midwest and Ohio Valley region. Will need to keep an eye on
a possible area of low pressure in between the high pressure systems
that could pass through the region Thu night or Friday, but right
now it looks as though the bigger threat for precip will remain to
the east of our forecast area. What is seeming a bit more certain
now is that another chunk of cold Canadian air will be in store as
we head into next weekend. Latest 00Z operational GFS and ECMWF
advertise a 1045-1050 mb high pushing southeast toward the region by
Saturday. Writing seems to be on the wall that below normal winter
temps will be sticking around right into the middle of the month.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 600 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
Overcast and windy conditions are expected over the next 24 hours
with scattered light snow showers. At KCGI/KPAH, low VFR conditions
are expected through much of the forecast period. However, moderate
bursts of snow shower activity may reduce conditions to MVFR at
times. At KEVV/KOWB, conditions should be primarily MVFR. Northwest
winds around 15 knots will gust as high as 25 to 30 knots.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...RJP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
657 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
...Forecast Update...
Updated at 655 AM EST Mon Feb 8 2016
As of 645 am, radar imagery showed an area of light rain moving east
out of southeast Indiana/east central KY and another area of a mix
of rain/snow moving into southwest Indiana and west central KY.
Increased POPs to better depict these areas of precip moving through
this morning. The latest HRRR run has a good handle on it. The
second batch of precip is expected to stay a mix of rain/snow as it
moves through southern IN/central KY this morning, but it should
have little to no impact on the morning commute as sfc temps are
above freezing and will likely rise a bit after sunrise. Also road
temps are in the upper 30s/lower 40s which should prevent any travel
hazards this morning.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Mon Feb 8 2016
...Winter Weather Advisory this Evening - Tuesday Evening...
The biggest change for this forecast package will be to expand the
Winter Wx Advy westward into the Louisville Metro area. According
to the latest model data, a change over from rain to snow is still
expected this evening probably during the latter half of the evening
rush hour. Although snow shower activity will be hit and miss, the
latest WRFs and NAM indicate sct-numerous snow showers over our
region this evening. Soundings still exhibit a convective nature
with bursts of moderate snow reducing vsbys and causing quick, light
accums so feel the risk of impact to the evening rush warrants the
advisory expansion. The Winter Wx Advy expansion will extend from
Lake Cumberland region to Louisville Metro to Scott County, IN and
points eastward. According to the latest model data, this area also
has the best chance at seeing 2-2.5 day (Mon evening - Wed morning)
snow accums between 1-3 inches with the highest numbers still
expected in the Bluegrass region. Also, some of the latest model
data indicates a slightly longer period of light accumulating snow
into Wed morning especially across the Bluegrass region. A time
extension to the advisory was considered, but in coordination with
neighboring offices decided to hold off for now. Will need to
consider the time extension again though especially for our east
central KY counties and especially if Wed morning commute looks to
be impacted.
==================
Mon-Tues Overview
==================
An anomalous upper low over the Midwest with many shortwaves
rotating around it will cause on and off showery activity today
through Tues. With boundary layer temps in the upper 30s/lower 40s
through this afternoon, many locations will see mainly rain showers
this morning/afternoon. Colder air will filter into the region from
W to E across the area late afternoon through this evening changing
rain showers to snow showers. P-type will remain snow showers Mon
night-Tues as the cold airmass settles in the region. Model
soundings indicate that late this afternoon/evening and Tues
afternoon/evening may be time periods where snow shower intensity
increases to moderate in spots causing travel difficulties. Light
accumulating snows this evening through Tues look to total up to 2
inches. These accums will be spotty however in the showery regime.
Temps should top out in the mid 30s to lower 40s early-mid afternoon
today before taking a dive into the lower 30s this evening. Lows
tonight should drop into the lower 20s...possibly colder in
locations that see a light accumulation of snow this
evening/overnight. Highs for Tues will be limited to the mid to
upper 20s.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 325 AM EST Mon Feb 8 2016
Tuesday Night - Wednesday...
Light on and off snow showers will continue Tues night into Wed in
the active northwest flow although the upper trough will begin to
pull farther east of the region by mid week. As mentioned in the
short term discussion, the Winter Wx Advy may need a time extension
for east central KY as light accumulating snow will continue through
Wed am and may impact the Wed morning commute. Total snow accums
through Wed should range from 1-3 inches with some spots that get
missed seeing less than that and others that see repeated bouts of
snow showers seeing a little more than that. Low clouds and
flurries should stick around through much of the day Wed and into
Wed evening.
Temps will be quite chilly for mid week with highs on Wed only
reaching the lower 20s possibly some upper teens over southern IN.
Wed night lows will drop into the upper single digits and lower 10s
with winds chills near zero.
Thursday - Sunday...
Models diverge for the latter half of the week. Both the GFS/ECMWF
have a signal for a late week clipper. However, the GFS brings it
through on Thu/Thu night and the ECMWF brings it through on Fri/Fri
night. Will stick with low POPs in the Fri/Fri night time frame as
that has been the more consistent signal. Of note though, ECMWF has
a very robust clipper in that time frame and won`t totally buy that
intensity quite yet. Temps look to moderate a little for Thu/Fri
with highs in the 30s by Fri.
Sat/Sun look dry but another surge of cold air is apparent in the
long range models with the ECMWF being the coldest. Another
potential wintry weather system that has had a consistent signal in
the long range data may affect the Ohio Valley the following
Mon/Tues.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 615 AM EST Mon Feb 8 2016
A couple waves of precip, mainly rain, will move through central
Kentucky this morning, gradually moistening the low level dry
environment. VFR ceilings will lower throughout the day, dropping
into the MVFR range solidly this afternoon as the upper level system
passes overhead. Plan on scattered to numerous showers developing by
19-20z. This should be initially a rain/snow mix but go over to all
snow by 21z or so. Periods of IFR are expected in the heavier snow
showers. Precipitation should linger into the evening hours before
diminishing however lower ceilings will persist through the end of
the TAF period.
Winds will be out of the west for the entire period, gusting to near
20 kts this afternoon.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/ this afternoon
to 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ Tuesday for KYZ029>043-045>049-
054>057-065>067-077-078-081-082.
IN...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST
Tuesday for INZ078-079-091-092.
&&
$$
Update.........AMS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......ZT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
618 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH. VALLEY TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED IN THE PAST
HOUR...HOWEVER BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP RUNS...AM STILL
CONCERNED FOR SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN THE EAST POTENTIALLY
ENDING UP WITH A LIGHT GLAZE. AS SUCH...HAVE HOISTED A SHORT FUSE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. IF THE
BETTER WARMING TRENDS CONTINUE LIKE THEY HAVE IN THE PAST
HOUR...THEN THIS WILL LIKELY GET DROPPED BEFORE EXPIRING.
ONCE THIS FIRST BATCH OF RAIN DEPARTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THERE
WILL BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...UNTIL A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE LAPSE RATES STEEPEN UP
QUITE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER...WITH THE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S FOR MOST TODAY...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY HOLDING OFF FOR MOST PLACES UNTIL DUSK OR SLIGHTLY
THEREAFTER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AS THE COLUMN COOLS QUICKER ALOFT.
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS WILL KICK IN TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY DEEPENS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES ROTATE THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY. STORM TOTALS STILL LOOK TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TAKING A NOSE DIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
READINGS FALLING BELOW FREEZING BY THIS EVENING...AND THEN INTO
THE 20S THROUGH TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE SIMILAR EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN BUT
DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST 72 HOURS OR SO OF THE
FORECAST. BROAD MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL IMPULSES
ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE. MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE
A LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE THAT MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY
WEATHER FOR THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS BOTH RUNS THE 0Z ECMWF
AND GFS HAVE DIVERGED FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS OF 24 HOUR
BACK. THE 0/06Z GFS HAS TRENDED FASTER...MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS...HARDLY PRODUCING ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE 0Z ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM...CARRYING A DEPENING SFC
WAVE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. CONSEQUENTLY THE ECMWF
ADVERTISES A MORE FAVORABLE PATH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL AND CURRENTLY ADVERTISES SUCH. HOWEVER...OVERALL
CONFIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO RUN LOW WITH EITHER SOLUTION UNTIL
THERE IS BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING MAINLY RAIN TO THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH DAWN. THE RAIN BAND WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATE THROUGH 15Z...BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION. CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES
WILL DROP DOWN TO MVFR WITHIN THE MORE SUSTAINED RAIN INITIALLY.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY RAISE UP TOWARDS
15Z...BEFORE GRADUALLY DROPPING DOWN TO MVFR ONCE AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY EVEN BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AT TIMES.
INCOMING COLDER AIR WILL THEN CHANGE ANY RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW
SHOWERS TOWARDS DUSK...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-111-
114-116.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ088-118-
120.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ104-106>110-112-113-115-117-119.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ104-
106>109-111-112-114.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ087.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
657 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND A TROUGH FROM
NRN ONTARIO THROUGH THE WRN LAKES. A MID LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER
WRN WI WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING ON ITS N AND NW FLANK
FROM NE MN THROUGH THE WRN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI INTO
NW WI. AT THE SFC...NRLY WINDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS W UPPER MI AS
LOW PRES OVER CNTRL UPPER MI SLOWLY MOVES TO THE E. CAA BEHIND THE
LOW HAS DROPPED 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -10C OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN LAKE ENHANCED SNOW...ESPECIALLY WHERE
UPSLOPE FLOW IS STRONGEST. OTHERWISE...TEMPS REMAINED NEAR 32F
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA.
TODAY...AS THE SFC LOW SLIDES TO THE SE INTO LOWER MI...EXPECT NRLY
WINDS BEHIND THE LOW TO BRING COLDER AIR THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER
MI WITH FALLING TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER THE N TO NNW FLOW
SNOWBELTS AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE -12C TO -16C RANGE. SO...THE
WINTER WX ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED INTO THE KEWEENAW WHERE ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REST OF THE CWA.
TONIGHT...INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT LES FOR N TO NNW FLOW LOCATIONS
WILL INCREASE AS 850 MB TEMP FALL INTO THE -14C TO -18C RANGE. THIS
WILL ALSO LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SLR VALUES TO NEAR 25/1 AS THE DGZ
WILL BE SITUATED IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEST WITH 1
TO 3 INCHES N CNTRL WHERE THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATER. ADDITIONAL
SNOW OVER THE REST OF THE AREA OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW SLIDES SLOWLY EAST TO NEAR LAKE HURON BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF THE U.P. IN NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY COOL ON CAA INTO THE
AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -22C/-25C BY TUESDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HAPPEN AS A SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SHOT OF COLD AIR SLIDE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...HEAVIEST IN THE NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WOULD BE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE FAR WEST AND THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST.
THIS TRANSITION WILL FOLLOW THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND MUCH COLDER AIR
WORKING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL BE IN A
DEEPER LAYER OF THE DGZ EARLY IN THE MORNING OVER THE WEST WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 4-6KFT. MOST OF THE MOISTURE
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL BE BELOW 3-4KFT WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT OVER THE WEST. THE DGZ WILL BECOME MUCH
SHALLOWER THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE FAR WEST AS THE VERY CHILLY AIR
SLIDES IN ALOFT. NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE U.P. WILL
SEE THE DEEP MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND THROUGH THE DAY WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS STAYING AROUND 5-7KFT AND A DEEPER CONVECTIVE
CLOUD LAYER IN THE DGZ. THIS SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE MODERATE SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THESE AREA GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGER SNOWFLAKE SIZES. TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
MUCH COLDER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD LAYER ACROSS THE U.P. COLDER THAN THE IDEAL DGZ...WHICH WILL
PROVIDE MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES AND LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. THE
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN COULD SEE ANOTHER 1 TO 4 INCHES TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE NORTH CENTRAL 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST
TOTALS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE AND BARAGA
COUNTIES. LATER SHIFTS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO EXPAND THE ADVISORIES
EASTWARD INTO BARAGA...MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES FOR THE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN DUG IN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. THE CHILLY AIR AT 850MB WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THE
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE LAYER WERE IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY
TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL
CANADA. WILL STILL SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH
DIMINISHED RATE...FOR MORE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER
TO THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE ON THE INFLECTION POINT
BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/EC
ARE SHOWING A 500MB CLOSED LOW SLIDING ACROSS HUDSON BAY THURSDAY
NIGHT TO CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS
HAPPENS...EXPECT A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE WRAPPING THROUGH THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED AREAS.
AGAIN...WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE SLIDING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE
U.P. PLACED THE BETTER CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THOSE AREAS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SNOW SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH THOUGH AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR MOVING IN WILL PRESS THE FAVORED DGZ
DOWN TO THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IT WILL BE FAIRLY
SHALLOW TOO.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT WHICH IS
NOT UNCOMMON FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE GFS
TRIES TO BRING A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE EC PUSHES A SURFACE
RIDGE AND BRIEF UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD. AT THIS POINT WENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS
GIVING ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
AS A CYCLONIC NNW FLOW OF COLD AIR PERSISTS ACROSS WRN UPPER MI
THROUGH TONIGHT...EXPECT SN AND MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO
PREDOMINATE. THERE MAY BE A FEW PERIODS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT SAW WHERE THE NNW WINDS WILL BE LESS
FAVORABLE FOR THE STRONGER LAKE ENHANCED OR LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER N LOWER MI
TODAY...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY. THE RESULT MARINE WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS TO 20 TO
30KNOTS WITH AND GALES TO 35KTS OVER N CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY-
TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE E
HALF TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH
THE HEAVIEST FREEZING SPRAY FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE N PLAINS TUESDAY SLOWLY
GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO
SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE START OF THE NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
MIZ001>003-009.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
LSZ264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
522 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND A TROUGH FROM
NRN ONTARIO THROUGH THE WRN LAKES. A MID LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER
WRN WI WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING ON ITS N AND NW FLANK
FROM NE MN THROUGH THE WRN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI INTO
NW WI. AT THE SFC...NRLY WINDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS W UPPER MI AS
LOW PRES OVER CNTRL UPPER MI SLOWLY MOVES TO THE E. CAA BEHIND THE
LOW HAS DROPPED 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -10C OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN LAKE ENHANCED SNOW...ESPECIALLY WHERE
UPSLOPE FLOW IS STRONGEST. OTHERWISE...TEMPS REMAINED NEAR 32F
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA.
TODAY...AS THE SFC LOW SLIDES TO THE SE INTO LOWER MI...EXPECT NRLY
WINDS BEHIND THE LOW TO BRING COLDER AIR THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER
MI WITH FALLING TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER THE N TO NNW FLOW
SNOWBELTS AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE -12C TO -16C RANGE. SO...THE
WINTER WX ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED INTO THE KEWEENAW WHERE ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REST OF THE CWA.
TONIGHT...INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT LES FOR N TO NNW FLOW LOCATIONS
WILL INCREASE AS 850 MB TEMP FALL INTO THE -14C TO -18C RANGE. THIS
WILL ALSO LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SLR VALUES TO NEAR 25/1 AS THE DGZ
WILL BE SITUATED IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEST WITH 1
TO 3 INCHES N CNTRL WHERE THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATER. ADDITIONAL
SNOW OVER THE REST OF THE AREA OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW SLIDES SLOWLY EAST TO NEAR LAKE HURON BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF THE U.P. IN NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY COOL ON CAA INTO THE
AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -22C/-25C BY TUESDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HAPPEN AS A SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SHOT OF COLD AIR SLIDE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...HEAVIEST IN THE NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WOULD BE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE FAR WEST AND THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST.
THIS TRANSITION WILL FOLLOW THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND MUCH COLDER AIR
WORKING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL BE IN A
DEEPER LAYER OF THE DGZ EARLY IN THE MORNING OVER THE WEST WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 4-6KFT. MOST OF THE MOISTURE
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL BE BELOW 3-4KFT WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT OVER THE WEST. THE DGZ WILL BECOME MUCH
SHALLOWER THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE FAR WEST AS THE VERY CHILLY AIR
SLIDES IN ALOFT. NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE U.P. WILL
SEE THE DEEP MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND THROUGH THE DAY WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS STAYING AROUND 5-7KFT AND A DEEPER CONVECTIVE
CLOUD LAYER IN THE DGZ. THIS SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE MODERATE SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THESE AREA GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGER SNOWFLAKE SIZES. TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
MUCH COLDER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD LAYER ACROSS THE U.P. COLDER THAN THE IDEAL DGZ...WHICH WILL
PROVIDE MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES AND LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. THE
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN COULD SEE ANOTHER 1 TO 4 INCHES TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE NORTH CENTRAL 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST
TOTALS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE AND BARAGA
COUNTIES. LATER SHIFTS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO EXPAND THE ADVISORIES
EASTWARD INTO BARAGA...MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES FOR THE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN DUG IN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. THE CHILLY AIR AT 850MB WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THE
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE LAYER WERE IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY
TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL
CANADA. WILL STILL SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH
DIMINISHED RATE...FOR MORE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER
TO THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE ON THE INFLECTION POINT
BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/EC
ARE SHOWING A 500MB CLOSED LOW SLIDING ACROSS HUDSON BAY THURSDAY
NIGHT TO CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS
HAPPENS...EXPECT A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE WRAPPING THROUGH THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED AREAS.
AGAIN...WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE SLIDING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE
U.P. PLACED THE BETTER CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THOSE AREAS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SNOW SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH THOUGH AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR MOVING IN WILL PRESS THE FAVORED DGZ
DOWN TO THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IT WILL BE FAIRLY
SHALLOW TOO.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT WHICH IS
NOT UNCOMMON FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE GFS
TRIES TO BRING A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE EC PUSHES A SURFACE
RIDGE AND BRIEF UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD. AT THIS POINT WENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS
GIVING ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
AS A CYC NNW FLOW OF COLDER AIR OVERSRPEADS WRN UPR MI EARLY THIS
MRNG AND PERSISTS THRU TNGT...EXPECT SN AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO
PREDOMINATE AT CMX AND IWD. AT SAW...SOME LLVL DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE
00Z GRB RAOB MAY BRING A FEW HRS OF VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MRNG
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MSTR/DYNAMIC FORCING CAUSES SOME STEADY
SN AND IFR CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK. WITH A LESS FAVORABLE NNW WIND
AND THE EXIT OF THE DEEPEST MSTR...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO
MVFR AT SAW THIS AFTN/EVNG.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER N LOWER MI
TODAY...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY. THE RESULT MARINE WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS TO 20 TO
30KNOTS WITH AND GALES TO 35KTS OVER N CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY-
TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE E
HALF TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH
THE HEAVIEST FREEZING SPRAY FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE N PLAINS TUESDAY SLOWLY
GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO
SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE START OF THE NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
MIZ001>003-009.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
LSZ264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1045 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL
MOVE AWAY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AND
EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM MONDAY...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST IS GIVING WAY TO A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH
THE MIDWEST. WITH 100-150M HEIGHT FALLS APPROACHING OUR REGION...THE
BIGGEST FORECAST INTEREST TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
A BAND OF SHOWERS AS A LEAD FRONTAL ZONE CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SHOW SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT AND/OR A PREFRONTAL TROUGH SITTING IN THE LEE OF THE
MOUNTAINS SOMETIME AROUND 20Z...AND THEN PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z. WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S...MODELS BARELY SHOW ANY MLCAPE AT ALL.
HOWEVER...AN AXIS OF STEEP 7-7.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CENTERED
JUST UPSTREAM OVER UPSTATE SC COMBINED WITH A WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK INSTABILITY TOP DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY JUST IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE HRRR SHOWS THE BAND OF SHOWERS
STRENGTHENING A BIT WITH TIME AND EASTWARD EXTENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN A FAIRLY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WIND GUSTS OF 30-40MPH WITH THE SHOWERS
SEEMS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO PLAUSIBLE
WITHIN THE LINE GIVEN THE THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT
WITHOUT BETTER FORECASTS CAPE...PREFER TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF
THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS BEFORE ADDING THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. -22
TONIGHT...
AS THE LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND TRACKS OVER
VA THEN OFFSHORE THIS EVENING... THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
TONIGHT. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT.
THIS IS LARGELY A DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER... SEVERAL MODELS
INCLUDING SOME OF THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS SHOW SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE MAY GET WRUNG OUT AS SNOW SHOWERS OR PATCHY FLURRIES LATE
TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER AND NORTHEAST OF RALEIGH. AT
THE CURRENT TIME... IT APPEARS THAT A QUICK DUSTING OR TRACE AMOUNTS
WOULD BE THE WORST CASE SCENARIO FOR AREAS AROUND ROXBORO TO ROCKY
MOUNT TO THE VA BORDER. OTHERWISE... THE COLD DRY ADVECTION WILL
QUICKLY END THE SHOWER THREAT. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 10-15
MPH. LOWS WITH CAA SHOULD DIP INTO THE 25-30 RANGE NW... AND LOWER
TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE BY TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 227 AM MONDAY...
BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE VERY COLD MID/UPPER TROUGH DIVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE TROUGH AXIS IS
FORECAST TO PIVOT THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT AND AFTERNOON STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH MOISTURE ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER... AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE... THE AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL NOT SEE MEASURABLE OR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S NW... TO NEAR 50 SE.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD WITH DIMINISHING NW
WINDS. LOWS GENERALLY 20-25 NW TO 25-28 SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...
...A SECONDARY COLDER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DESCEND SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
CORE OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER
TROUGH(H5ANOMALIES 2 TO 4 SD BELOW NORMAL)IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN US WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY. H8 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT ~15C WITH LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES 1240-1245M WEDNESDAY NIGHT...60 TO 70 METERS BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH
TO UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 SOUTH. LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY:
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE BRIEFLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE FRIDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT SUCCESSION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING OUT OF
CANADA...ANCHORED BY A STRONG VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION...LEADS TO
RENEWED AMPLIFICATION OF THE COLD EASTERN US TROUGH WITH EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC AIR DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME...ONE FEATURE WE WILL NEED TO BE MONITOR
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE EVENTUAL TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE
DIVING DOWN THE BACK-SIDE OF THE TROUGH THAT COULD POTENTIALLY
SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
BOTH THE EC AND GFS INDICATE THAT THE EARLIER MID-WEEK ARCTIC
INTRUSION WILL PALE IN COMPARISON TO THE WEEKEND INTRUSION WITH H8
PROGGED TO BE IN THE -20TO -25C WITH LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES TANKING
TO 1210-1215M. IF THESE INCREDIBLY COLD THICKNESSES VERIFY...HIGHS
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM MONDAY...
FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 18Z
TODAY. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW THIS
AFTERNOON. OUT AHEAD OF THIS QUICK MOVING SYSTEM... SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-20KT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS WITH RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT
KINT/KGSO... THEN KRDU AND KRWI BY EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR...WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25KT WED AND THU.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT/SMITH
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BADGETT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
939 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
ALTHOUGH WEB CAMS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD STILL GETTING STREAMER SHSN
WHICH LIMIT VSBY. WAITING TO SEE IF WINDS PICK BACK UP BUT FOR NOW
WILL LET ADVISORY RIDE AND REVISIT LATER THIS AM. ADJUSTED POPS A
BIT BUT NO BIG CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
MANY OBS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STILL SHOWING 1 SM OR LESS VIS...AND
WEB CAMS IN SOME SPOTS CONTINUE TO LOOK TO HAVE POOR CONDITIONS.
THE RADAR SHOWS THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY
WEAKEN...BUT THEY WILL CONTINUE A WHILE LONGER AND WITH WINDS
STILL AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40...BLOWING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VIS ARE NOT
DOWN TO 1/4SM SO WILL LET THE BLIZZARD WARNING GO BUT HAVE
EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY
COUNTIES. THE WEST HAS SEEN WINDS COME DOWN SO LET THE WIND
ADVISORY GO. THE EAST HAS THE SHELTER OF THE TREES SO VIS IS NOT
AS BAD AND LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE IN THAT AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
SNOW SHOWERS...WIND...AND WHAT TO DO WITH HEADLINES WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST HEADACHE FOR THE SHORT TERM.
STREAKS OF SNOW CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH
POOR VISIBILITY UNDER THE HEAVIER BANDS. SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN VALLEY HAS BEEN GOING ON FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND
THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE A SHARP DECREASE IN SNOW ACTIVITY BY 12Z.
HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST TO GET RID OF THE PRECIP ALL
NIGHT. WITH WINDS AND PERIODIC LOW VIS...WILL KEEP WINTER HEADLINES
GOING THROUGH 12Z AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK LATER THIS MORNING TO SEE
IF THEY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR NOT.
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE STRONG THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS ABOVE 36
KTS STILL GOING AT FARGO AND GRAND FORKS. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE 45 KTS AT 925MB WITH EVEN HIGHER SPEEDS AT 850MB. MIXING
CONTINUES TO BE GOOD FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT...AROUND 900 TO 875MB.
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE TODAY AS THE SFC LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING.
THINK WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING AND EVEN INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH HIGHER WIND SPEEDS...THINK THAT ONCE
SNOW STOPS ACTIVELY FALLING THE VISIBILITY SITUATION WILL IMPROVE.
THUS...AS LONG AS SNOW SHOWERS STOP AS EXPECTED IT WILL MAINLY BE
A MATTER OF CHANGING OVER FROM WINTER HEADLINES TO WIND ADVISORY
AT 12Z. WILL MONITOR THE RADAR...OBS AND WEB CAMS DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS TO DETERMINE HOW TO ADJUST HEADLINES WHEN THE TIME
COMES BUT WILL KEEP THEM AS THEY ARE FOR NOW.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE QUIET AS NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLDER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING LATELY...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WHERE THEY WILL
GET THE BRUNT OF THE COLDER AIR MASS. WITH TEMPS DIPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO 10 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST...AND SOME WINDS
HANGING ON IN THAT AREA...WIND CHILLS COULD GET DOWN TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WITH ONGOING CURRENT HEADLINES WILL WAIT TO
PUT OUT ANYTHING ADDITIONAL FOR TOMORROW MORNING. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ZERO IN THE NORTHEAST BUT ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES WARMER IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE THICKNESS VALUES WILL BE
HIGHER.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST. A JET STREAK COMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING SOME LIFT
AND CREATE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER MAINLY OUR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR
WEDNESDAY. THINK THAT THE SNOW IS LESS LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE JET STREAK WILL HAVE MOVED OFF BY THEN SO WENT WITH THE
LOWER BLENDED POPS INSTEAD OF THE VERY WET NAM. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS IN THE SOUTHWEST.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER AIR PATTERN WAS
OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE EASTERN STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST. PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING TO NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS WAS A FASTER SOLUTION THEN
THE ECMWF. ALSO THE GFS WAS TRENDING FASTER AND THE ECMWF WAS
TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL BLEND THE TWO
MODELS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE DECREASED A DEGREE OR SO FOR THU. HIGHS WERE
DECREASED TWO TO FOUR DEGREES ON FRI...DECREASED FIVE TO SIX
DEGREES ON SAT AND INCREASED ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
VIS CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY BLOWING SNOW. CURRENTLY WORST
CONDITIONS ARE AT KFAR...WITH 2-5SM AT KGFK AND KBJI. VIS HAVE
COME UP TO VFR AT KDVL...ALTHOUGH CIGS ARE STILL MVFR. MVFR CIGS
AND VIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING...WITH SOME VIS
AROUND OR BELOW 1SM AT TIMES MAINLY AROUND KFAR. THINK THAT THE
BLOWING SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY DECREASE...WITH VIS BACK UP AND MVFR
CIGS BY LATE MORNING. THINK THAT WE SHOULD SEE SOME VFR CONDITIONS
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST ABOVE
30 KTS AT KGFK AND KFAR...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ007-008-016-
027-029-030-039-053-054.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>005-007-
008-013>015-022-027-029-030-040.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
652 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
MANY OBS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STILL SHOWING 1 SM OR LESS VIS...AND
WEB CAMS IN SOME SPOTS CONTINUE TO LOOK TO HAVE POOR CONDITIONS.
THE RADAR SHOWS THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY
WEAKEN...BUT THEY WILL CONTINUE A WHILE LONGER AND WITH WINDS
STILL AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40...BLOWING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VIS ARE NOT
DOWN TO 1/4SM SO WILL LET THE BLIZZARD WARNING GO BUT HAVE
EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY
COUNTIES. THE WEST HAS SEEN WINDS COME DOWN SO LET THE WIND
ADVISORY GO. THE EAST HAS THE SHELTER OF THE TREES SO VIS IS NOT
AS BAD AND LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE IN THAT AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
SNOW SHOWERS...WIND...AND WHAT TO DO WITH HEADLINES WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST HEADACHE FOR THE SHORT TERM.
STREAKS OF SNOW CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH
POOR VISIBILITY UNDER THE HEAVIER BANDS. SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN VALLEY HAS BEEN GOING ON FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND
THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE A SHARP DECREASE IN SNOW ACTIVITY BY 12Z.
HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST TO GET RID OF THE PRECIP ALL
NIGHT. WITH WINDS AND PERIODIC LOW VIS...WILL KEEP WINTER HEADLINES
GOING THROUGH 12Z AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK LATER THIS MORNING TO SEE
IF THEY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR NOT.
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE STRONG THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS ABOVE 36
KTS STILL GOING AT FARGO AND GRAND FORKS. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE 45 KTS AT 925MB WITH EVEN HIGHER SPEEDS AT 850MB. MIXING
CONTINUES TO BE GOOD FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT...AROUND 900 TO 875MB.
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE TODAY AS THE SFC LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING.
THINK WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING AND EVEN INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH HIGHER WIND SPEEDS...THINK THAT ONCE
SNOW STOPS ACTIVELY FALLING THE VISIBILITY SITUATION WILL IMPROVE.
THUS...AS LONG AS SNOW SHOWERS STOP AS EXPECTED IT WILL MAINLY BE
A MATTER OF CHANGING OVER FROM WINTER HEADLINES TO WIND ADVISORY
AT 12Z. WILL MONITOR THE RADAR...OBS AND WEB CAMS DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS TO DETERMINE HOW TO ADJUST HEADLINES WHEN THE TIME
COMES BUT WILL KEEP THEM AS THEY ARE FOR NOW.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE QUIET AS NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLDER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING LATELY...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WHERE THEY WILL
GET THE BRUNT OF THE COLDER AIR MASS. WITH TEMPS DIPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO 10 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST...AND SOME WINDS
HANGING ON IN THAT AREA...WIND CHILLS COULD GET DOWN TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WITH ONGOING CURRENT HEADLINES WILL WAIT TO
PUT OUT ANYTHING ADDITIONAL FOR TOMORROW MORNING. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ZERO IN THE NORTHEAST BUT ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES WARMER IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE THICKNESS VALUES WILL BE
HIGHER.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST. A JET STREAK COMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING SOME LIFT
AND CREATE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER MAINLY OUR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR
WEDNESDAY. THINK THAT THE SNOW IS LESS LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE JET STREAK WILL HAVE MOVED OFF BY THEN SO WENT WITH THE
LOWER BLENDED POPS INSTEAD OF THE VERY WET NAM. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS IN THE SOUTHWEST.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER AIR PATTERN WAS
OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE EASTERN STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST. PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING TO NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS WAS A FASTER SOLUTION THEN
THE ECMWF. ALSO THE GFS WAS TRENDING FASTER AND THE ECMWF WAS
TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL BLEND THE TWO
MODELS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE DECREASED A DEGREE OR SO FOR THU. HIGHS WERE
DECREASED TWO TO FOUR DEGREES ON FRI...DECREASED FIVE TO SIX
DEGREES ON SAT AND INCREASED ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
VIS CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY BLOWING SNOW. CURRENTLY WORST
CONDITIONS ARE AT KFAR...WITH 2-5SM AT KGFK AND KBJI. VIS HAVE
COME UP TO VFR AT KDVL...ALTHOUGH CIGS ARE STILL MVFR. MVFR CIGS
AND VIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING...WITH SOME VIS
AROUND OR BELOW 1SM AT TIMES MAINLY AROUND KFAR. THINK THAT THE
BLOWING SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY DECREASE...WITH VIS BACK UP AND MVFR
CIGS BY LATE MORNING. THINK THAT WE SHOULD SEE SOME VFR CONDITIONS
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST ABOVE
30 KTS AT KGFK AND KFAR...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ007-008-016-
027-029-030-039-053-054.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>005-007-
008-013>015-022-027-029-030-040.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1022 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH A BROAD AND MOIST
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM EST MONDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BACKED A BIT IN THE
NEAR TERM AS IT PERTAINS TO NWFS ALONG THE TN LINE...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN RECENT MRX RADAR TRENDS ACROSS THE SMOKIES.
LIKEWISE...12Z NAM REMAINS CONSISTENT IN THAT IT FAVORS SHRA
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NC FTHILLS/PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON AS A
RATHER POTENT CHANNELED VORT LOBE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION.
THUS...OPTED TO TAILOR BACK POPS A BIT OVER THE MTNS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...WHICH DID RESULT IN MINOR REDUCTIONS OF SNOW
TOTALS...HOWEVER STILL AT WARNING CRITERIA FOR THE CURRENTLY
WARNED ZONES. OTHERWISE...INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO
THE AFTERNOON PER THE NAM AND LATEST HRRR WHICH FAVORS SHRA AND
PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NO OTHER
SIG CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP UPPER TROUGH
WITH EMBEDDED CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST. THE TROUGH WILL
EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING A COLD
FRONT WITH IT WHICH WILL PUSH THRU OUR CWFA TODAY. LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS ARE SEEN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO A CHANNELED
POCKET OF VORT AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH. THE VORT MAX WILL
PUSH EASTWARD ACRS THE CWFA LATER TODAY...AND STRONG QG FORCING WILL
ACCOMPANY IT THROUGH THE AREA...AS WILL PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF A LIMITING FACTOR EVEN EAST OF THE
MTNS. FALLING HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW LAPSE RATES TO INCREASE DURING
THE DAY AS WELL. A BULLSEYE OF CAPE VALUES UP TO NEAR 200 J/KG
IS SHOWN ON BOTH NAM AND GFS...THE GFS HAVING TRENDED TOWARD
THE NAM WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY UNSTABLE FOR MONDAY OVER
THE PAST FEW RUNS. THIS INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE UPPER
FORCING...LENDS CONFIDENCE TO SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND SPREADING
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ARE SURPRISINGLY
UNRESPONSIVE...THE HI-RES WRF WINDOWS BASICALLY SUPPORTING ONLY
ISOLATED/SCHC POPS DURING THE DAY. I STILL FEEL POPS SIMILAR TO
THOSE FROM THE PREV FCST ARE WARRANTED. INCLUDED A LOW THUNDER
CHANCE OVER WRN NC BASED ON PEAK CAPES.
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN STEADILY AT 850MB THRU THE DAY. BASED ON
FAVORED BLEND /MOSTLY SREF/...TEMPS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY...WITH VALLEYS AND THE
PIEDMONT MANAGING TO WARM ENOUGH THAT ANY PRECIP WILL INITIALLY
BE RAIN. STILL LOOKS LIKE SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. SNOW LEVELS REACH THE VALLEY FLOOR AROUND SUNSET. WITH
THE LEADING SHOT OF UPPER FORCING DEPARTING THIS EVENING...PRECIP
CHANCES TAPER OFF IN THE PIEDMONT...AND WITH TEMPS REMAINING SO WARM
THIS ROUND SHOULD END AS RAIN. HOWEVER...WHILE MODEL QPF RESPONSE
IS AGAIN QUITE LOW...A SECOND VORT LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
CYCLONE WILL DIVE THRU THE TENN VALLEY THIS EVENING BEFORE SWINGING
ACROSS WESTERN NC IN THE WEE HOURS TUE. I FELT THIS DEPICTED WAVE
APPEARED STRONG ENOUGH TO BE ABLE TO GENERATE A FEW PIEDMONT SHOWERS
FROM THE STILL-MOIST LOW LEVELS. BY THE TIME THIS MOVES THRU...TEMPS
SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. HOWEVER ACCUMULATION IS NOT LIKELY.
WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE AN ADDITIONAL FACTOR FOR THE TENN
BORDER AREAS. THIS WILL GET UNDERWAY THIS MORNING AND REMAIN
STEADY...BUT THE LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER AND STRENGTHEN IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHERMORE THAT SECOND PERIOD OF UPPER
FORCING MAY ENHANCE THE UPSLOPE-FORCED PRECIP RATES EVEN MORE. I
BLENDED IN MORE OF THE CAM/HI-RES GUIDANCE IN ORDER TO BETTER
CAPTURE THE TERRAIN INFLUENCE. NEW SNOW TOTALS MEET WARNING
CRITERIA IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE
FCST. THUS...A WINTER STORM WARNING IS BEING RAISED FOR THE TENN
BORDER ZONES. AVERY IS OMITTED SINCE THE CAM GUIDANCE PLACED MORE OF
THE SNOW WEST AND SOUTH OF THE COUNTY. ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THRU 12Z TUE FOR AREAS THAT WERE PREVIOUSLY IN THE ADVISORY...BUT
THAT DO NOT MEET WARNING CRITERIA. THE WARNING COULD BE EXTENDED
TO HIGHLIGHT THE CONTINUING THREAT OF NW FLOW THRU MIDWEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...DEEP UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE AREA TUE AND
SLOWLY SLIDES EAST ON WED. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THRU
THE TROF AND ACROSS THE AREA BOTH DAYS. SURGES OF CAA AND STRONG NW
FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORT WAVES. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF NW
FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NC MTNS BOTH DAYS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
BREAK CONTAINMENT AND SPREAD ACROSS THE FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT...AND
POSSIBLY SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL WITH THE RELATIVELY DEEP STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT DEVELOP. DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMS FROM ANY
SNOW SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. HOWEVER...WITH THE
LONG DURATION OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTNS...AMOUNTS WILL BE UP
TO 4 INCHES IN THE USUAL LOCATIONS OF THE NRN MTNS...WITH 1 TO 2
INCHES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE TN BORDER BY THE TIME THE SNOW TAPERS OFF
WED NITE. COULD SEE SOME CLOUDS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS ON WED BUT NO
SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED THAT DAY. HIGHS TUE WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THEN FALL TO 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON WED AS
THE COLDEST PART OF THE AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOWS 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUE NITE FALL TO 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WED NITE. WITH THE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING THRU THE
PERIOD...WIND CHILL VALUES FALL INTO THE ADVISORY RANGE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS TUE NITE...AND DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS ON WED
NITE...WITH WARNING LEVEL WIND CHILLS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE OVERALL
PATTERN IN THE MEDIUM RANGE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT...THERE IS QUITE
A SPREAD IN THE DETAILS. A LONG WAVE TROF REMAINS OVER THE ERN CONUS
THRU THE PERIOD. THE FLOW FLATTENS SLIGHTLY ON THU AS THE SHORT WAVE
FROM THE SHORT RANGE MOVES EAST...THEN DEEPENS AGAIN FRI AND SAT AS
ANOTHER SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DIG INTO THE TROF. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER
AND STRONGER WITH THE TROF AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW DIVES INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC. HEIGHTS
THEN RISE ON SUN IN THE GFS AS THE TROF AXIS MOVES EAST...WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS HEIGHTS LOW AS THE TROF ONLY SLOWLY MOVES EAST.
AT THE SFC...THE GUIDANCE AGREES ON A CLIPPER SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
AREA...BUT THE GFS IS FASTER AND WEAKER WITH THE SYSTEM WHILE THE
ECMWF IS STRONGER AND SLOWER. BOTH ALSO HAVE A REINFORCING VERY COLD
AIR MASS MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM...BUT THE GFS BRINGS IT IN
SOONER AND MODERATES IT FASTER. GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES....HAVE GONE
WITH A GUIDANCE BLEND. THIS MEANS A DRY FCST FOR THU...WITH CHANCE
POP FOR THE TN BORDER COUNTIES FRI AND FRI NITE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POP ELSEWHERE...THEN DRY FCST AGAIN FOR SAT AND SUN. EVEN THOUGH
TEMPS REMAIN NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD...DO HAVE A WARMING TREND THRU
SAT WITH COOLING AGAIN FOR SUN. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL AGAIN
APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SAT NITE. THAT
SAID...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST GIVEN THE WIDE RANGE IN THE
GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...MAINLY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PRECEDE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE SE CONUS. INCREASING MIDLEVEL CLOUDS
WILL BE SEEN THRU MIDDAY...WHEN A VORT LOBE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
TROUGH BEGINS TO PASS OVER THE SITES. A PERIOD OF LOWER CLOUD
BASES ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CU WILL DEVELOP OVERHEAD IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER LIFT AND STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THERE
IS ALSO A CHANCE OF LOW VFR SHRA...AND A NONZERO CHANCE OF A TS
AND MVFR CIG. CHANCE IS IN THE TEMPO RANGE AT ALL SITES AT THEIR
PEAK...BUT INCLUDED VCSH SURROUNDING THE TEMPO. CHANCES TAPER OFF IN
THE EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE VORT LOBE...BUT WITH FALLING TEMPS
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ANY REMNANT SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH SN
BEFORE ENDING. THAT CHANCE IS TOO LOW ENOUGH TO MENTION. WINDS WILL
BE NEARLY DUE W...BUT MORE LIKELY S OF W WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE N.
AT KAVL AND IN THE MOUNTAINS...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH THE PASSING
UPPER DISTURBANCE IS A LITTLE EARLIER IN THE DAY...BUT CHANCES
AT KAVL ARE STILL ONLY IN TEMPO RANGE ON THIS ACCOUNT. COOLER
TEMPS WILL SUPPORT ALL SN ON RIDGETOPS AND A RASN MIX IN THE
LOWER VALLEYS /AND KAVL/. ONSET OF WHAT LOOKS TO BE A PROLONGED
NW FLOW SNOW EVENT IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS BACK IN
THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE AND COLD ADVECTION STRENGTHENS. THE
BETTER CHANCES WILL BE IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS...BUT A LOW CHANCE
OF ACCUMULATING -SHSN EXISTS AT KAVL AFTER SUNSET. HANDLING THIS
WITH PROB30. BRISK FLOW ACRS THE MTNS IS PROGGED TO RESULT IN A
RARE CROSSWIND AT KAVL...WITH A FEW GUSTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
OUTLOOK...SEVERAL STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA THRU WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
AND COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE THERE ARE HIGH CHANCES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
15-21Z 21-03Z 03-09Z 09-12Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ033-053-
062-063.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ033-048>052-058-059-062.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ048>052-058-
059.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
209 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 244 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
AN UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES EARLY THIS WEEK AND INTERACT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. THE
RESULT WILL BE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CHANCES LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. GUSTY
WINDS IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS COULD RESULT IN SUDDEN REDUCTIONS
IN THE VISIBILITY.
VERY COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WITH SUB ZERO
WIND CHILLS POSSIBLE BY OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE LATE
WEEK AND WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SLOWLY MODERATE AND REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
INITIAL BAND OF SNOW THAT HAS DROPPED A FEW TENTHS ACROSS EASTERN
COUNTIES THIS MORNING IS NOW ABOUT TO SHIFT INTO WESTERN OHIO.
STARTING TO SEE SLOW EXPANSION TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BACK
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND EXPECT THIS
ONLY TO INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE WABASH VALLEY.
15Z TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 30S.
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE UPDATE IS TO BETTER TIME THE TEMP FALLS AND
MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY. COLD FRONT WILL SWING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AND BECOMING GUSTY IN ITS WAKE. AS
STATED...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND LOCALIZED BURSTS OF SNOW
HIGHLIGHTED BY POCKETS OF 30+ DBZ RETURNS ALREADY EXPANDING OVER
WESTERN COUNTIES. MORE EXPANSIVE AND INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS STILL
SLATED TO ARRIVE FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SQUALLS. HAVE
SEEN BRIEF DROPS TO UNDER 1SM IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THIS ONLY TO WORSEN
AS IT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 18Z.
WHILE TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEY
WILL LIKELY BE MITIGATED TO SOME DEGREE BY THE NEAR SURFACE TEMPS
REMAINING NEAR TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SHOULD END ANY
RISE IN TEMPS...BUT IT APPEARS THE SURGE OF STRONGEST COLD
ADVECTION AND CONSEQUENTLY FASTEST TEMP DROPS LOOKS ORIENTED FOR
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SLOWER TEMP FALLS
ELSEWHERE. UTILIZED HOURLY RAP GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT FROM
CURRENT TEMPS AND TRIED TO TIME THE TEMP FALLS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT EVERYONE WILL SLIP BELOW FREEZING NEAR OR JUST
AFTER SUNSET WITH MORE EXTENSIVE TEMP FALLS COMMENCING TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SPS FOR THE HIGH IMPACT SNOW SHOWERS AND
SQUALLS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A MORE INTENSIVE LOOK AT THE
NEED FOR AN IMPACT BASED ADVISORY FOCUSED OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AFTER THE FULL 12Z MODEL SUITE ARRIVES.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
BRIEF SNOW SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. AFTER THAT...SNOW CHANCES WILL LOWER AND WILL SHIFT
MAINLY TO OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS LAKE EFFECT THREAT CONTINUES.
WIND CHILLS WILL THEN BECOME CENTER STAGE.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO
NORTHWESTERN OHIO BY TUESDAY MORNING AND THE APPALACHIANS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...DECENT NORTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL FINALLY WEAKEN TOWARD THURSDAY
MORNING. SO...STARTED OFF WITH LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MAINLY EAST OF A BEDFORD TO TERRE HAUTE LINE. THEN...CHANCE POPS ARE
IN ORDER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES. BY WEDNESDAY...WENT DRY EXCEPT CHANCE OF SNOW NORTHEAST.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD BE BACKING AND LET UP ENOUGH TO PULL LAKE
EFFECT POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FAR NORTHEAST.
BUFKIT WAS SHOWING SNOW RATIOS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 TO 1 TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THUS...DESPITE WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING AND RESULTANT LOW
QPF...HIGH SNOW RATIOS...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETERS SUGGEST STORM SNOWFALL TOTALS OF UP TO 3 INCHES AND
LOCALLY HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND EAST OF KOKOMO AND RUSHVILLE
WITH PROJECTED AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF TO AN INCH OR 2 SOUTHWEST OF
BEDFORD AND CLINTON. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS WILL CAUSE
BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
WITH COLD ADVECTION AND EXPECTED SNOW COVER...WILL GO AT OR BELOW
00Z MOS. SHOULD SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS BY OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT. NEGATIVE WIND CHILLS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING RUSH.
AN ADVISORY WILL BE AN OPTION LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...BUT AFTER
COORDINATION...FEEL THE BEST OPTION FOR NOW IS UPDATING THE STRONGLY
WORDED SPECIAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...WEATHER
STORY AND TWITTER REGARDING THE SNOW. WILL ALSO HIT THE COLD
TEMPERATURES HARD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016
A DECENT AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY SHOWING UP IN ENSEMBLES AND
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS FOR THE LONG TERM. ACCEPTED INITIALIZATION
WITH FEW CHANGES AS THE BLENDED CONSENSUS SHOULD PROVIDE THE MOST
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION. CURRENT 12Z ECMWF IS HITTING CLIPPER
SYSTEM ON FRIDAY PRETTY HARD WHILE GFS KEEPS BEST FORCING NORTH OF
THE AREA AND ESSENTIALLY LEAVES CENTRAL INDIANA DRY. BOTH
MODELS SHOW SOME LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY BUT THIS WOULD ONLY IMPACT THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES IF IT
EVEN REACHES THAT FAR. FINALLY THE LAST STORM SYSTEM TO ADDRESS
IS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND AS AN UPPER WAVE
MOVES THROUGH. VARIABILITY REGARDING STRENGTH AND TIMING IS STILL
HIGH AND THUS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
CHANCES ON MONDAY LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 081800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1128 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR WITHIN HEAVIER SNOW BANDS.
WIND GUSTS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO AROUND 25 KTS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF PREVAILING MVFR RESTRICTIONS
AND OFF AND ON SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONTINUE TO HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THE LOWER CONDITIONS. MOST MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A PERIOD THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WHEN A BREAK OCCURS IN THE
SNOWFALL BUT IT PICKS BACK UP LATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SOME
INDICATIONS OF CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AT LEAST AT
KIND AND KBMG SO MAY INCLUDE TEMPO IFR GROUPS AT THOSE LOCATIONS
TO COVER AFTERNOON SNOW BAND POTENTIAL THERE. WILL HOLD OFF AT KHUF
AND KLAF WITH INSTABILITY REMAINING EAST OF THOSE SITES.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1145 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 244 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
AN UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES EARLY THIS WEEK AND INTERACT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. THE
RESULT WILL BE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CHANCES LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. GUSTY
WINDS IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS COULD RESULT IN SUDDEN REDUCTIONS
IN THE VISIBILITY.
VERY COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WITH SUB ZERO
WIND CHILLS POSSIBLE BY OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE LATE
WEEK AND WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SLOWLY MODERATE AND REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
INITIAL BAND OF SNOW THAT HAS DROPPED A FEW TENTHS ACROSS EASTERN
COUNTIES THIS MORNING IS NOW ABOUT TO SHIFT INTO WESTERN OHIO.
STARTING TO SEE SLOW EXPANSION TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BACK
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND EXPECT THIS
ONLY TO INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE WABASH VALLEY.
15Z TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 30S.
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE UPDATE IS TO BETTER TIME THE TEMP FALLS AND
MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY. COLD FRONT WILL SWING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AND BECOMING GUSTY IN ITS WAKE. AS
STATED...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND LOCALIZED BURSTS OF SNOW
HIGHLIGHTED BY POCKETS OF 30+ DBZ RETURNS ALREADY EXPANDING OVER
WESTERN COUNTIES. MORE EXPANSIVE AND INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS STILL
SLATED TO ARRIVE FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SQUALLS. HAVE
SEEN BRIEF DROPS TO UNDER 1SM IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THIS ONLY TO WORSEN
AS IT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 18Z.
WHILE TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEY
WILL LIKELY BE MITIGATED TO SOME DEGREE BY THE NEAR SURFACE TEMPS
REMAINING NEAR TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SHOULD END ANY
RISE IN TEMPS...BUT IT APPEARS THE SURGE OF STRONGEST COLD
ADVECTION AND CONSEQUENTLY FASTEST TEMP DROPS LOOKS ORIENTED FOR
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SLOWER TEMP FALLS
ELSEWHERE. UTILIZED HOURLY RAP GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT FROM
CURRENT TEMPS AND TRIED TO TIME THE TEMP FALLS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT EVERYONE WILL SLIP BELOW FREEZING NEAR OR JUST
AFTER SUNSET WITH MORE EXTENSIVE TEMP FALLS COMMENCING TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SPS FOR THE HIGH IMPACT SNOW SHOWERS AND
SQUALLS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A MORE INTENSIVE LOOK AT THE
NEED FOR AN IMPACT BASED ADVISORY FOCUSED OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AFTER THE FULL 12Z MODEL SUITE ARRIVES.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
BRIEF SNOW SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. AFTER THAT...SNOW CHANCES WILL LOWER AND WILL SHIFT
MAINLY TO OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS LAKE EFFECT THREAT CONTINUES.
WIND CHILLS WILL THEN BECOME CENTER STAGE.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO
NORTHWESTERN OHIO BY TUESDAY MORNING AND THE APPALACHIANS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...DECENT NORTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL FINALLY WEAKEN TOWARD THURSDAY
MORNING. SO...STARTED OFF WITH LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MAINLY EAST OF A BEDFORD TO TERRE HAUTE LINE. THEN...CHANCE POPS ARE
IN ORDER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES. BY WEDNESDAY...WENT DRY EXCEPT CHANCE OF SNOW NORTHEAST.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD BE BACKING AND LET UP ENOUGH TO PULL LAKE
EFFECT POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FAR NORTHEAST.
BUFKIT WAS SHOWING SNOW RATIOS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 TO 1 TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THUS...DESPITE WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING AND RESULTANT LOW
QPF...HIGH SNOW RATIOS...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETERS SUGGEST STORM SNOWFALL TOTALS OF UP TO 3 INCHES AND
LOCALLY HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND EAST OF KOKOMO AND RUSHVILLE
WITH PROJECTED AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF TO AN INCH OR 2 SOUTHWEST OF
BEDFORD AND CLINTON. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS WILL CAUSE
BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
WITH COLD ADVECTION AND EXPECTED SNOW COVER...WILL GO AT OR BELOW
00Z MOS. SHOULD SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS BY OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT. NEGATIVE WIND CHILLS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING RUSH.
AN ADVISORY WILL BE AN OPTION LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...BUT AFTER
COORDINATION...FEEL THE BEST OPTION FOR NOW IS UPDATING THE STRONGLY
WORDED SPECIAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...WEATHER
STORY AND TWITTER REGARDING THE SNOW. WILL ALSO HIT THE COLD
TEMPERATURES HARD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 217 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
ON THE LARGE SCALE...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS. DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN
THE DETAILS.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...WITH PERHAPS SOME RISE IN HEIGHTS LATE. MODELS ARE HAVING
DISAGREEMENTS ON ENERGY RIDING AROUND THE TROUGH AND THUS CHANCES
FOR SNOW DURING THE PERIOD.
THAT FAR OUT...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE DETAILS AND SEE NO
REASON TO PLAY FAVORITES AT THIS TIME. THUS STUCK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION.
COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH SOME
REINFORCING COLD AIR MOVING IN THANKS TO THE TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 081800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1128 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR WITHIN HEAVIER SNOW BANDS.
WIND GUSTS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO AROUND 25 KTS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF PREVAILING MVFR RESTRICTIONS
AND OFF AND ON SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONTINUE TO HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THE LOWER CONDITIONS. MOST MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A PERIOD THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WHEN A BREAK OCCURS IN THE
SNOWFALL BUT IT PICKS BACK UP LATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SOME
INDICATIONS OF CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AT LEAST AT
KIND AND KBMG SO MAY INCLUDE TEMPO IFR GROUPS AT THOSE LOCATIONS
TO COVER AFTERNOON SNOW BAND POTENTIAL THERE. WILL HOLD OFF AT KHUF
AND KLAF WITH INSTABILITY REMAINING EAST OF THOSE SITES.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1213 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
ALL HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED TO END TIME OF 00Z TO BLEND INTO
THINKING OF ADJACENT OFFICES FOR CONSISTENT MESSAGING. THE LATEST
HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST CONTRIBUTIONS OF ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY STILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONTINUE DRAMATIC VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY IN RURAL OPEN AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
TRICKY FORECAST CONTINUES FOR THE SHORT TERM...WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH INTERMITTENT SNOW
SHOWERS. STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES AND CAA COMING THROUGH NOW
TOWARD SUNRISE...WITH ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT OF WINDS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...WITH SATURATION
AND WEAK LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER TO KEEP THREAT FOR DECENT
SNOW SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE DAY. NAM/GFS SEEM OVERDONE ON WINDS
WITH AROUND 50 TO 55 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE SREF/RAP MUCH LESS AROUND 40-45KTS.
NAM/GFS INDICATING THAT THOSE HIGHER WINDS GUSTS ALREADY EXPECTED
TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE CWA...AND CURRENTLY GETTING GUSTS TOPPING
OUT AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH. THEREFORE TRENDED WINDS DOWN A BIT
THROUGH THE DAY GOING CLOSER TO THE RAP/SREF VALUES. WITH THE
LOWERED WINDS...HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING MUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS...THEREFORE HAVE DOWNGRADED SOME OF
THE FRINGES OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
STILL SOME PARTIALLY COVERED/COMPLETELY COVERED ROADWAYS THAT ARE
SLICK DUE TO DRIFTING SNOW...BUT OVERALL VISIBILITIES/BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS NOT BEING REALIZED IN THE SOUTHERN MOST/EASTERN-MOST
AREAS OF THE WARNING. REMAINDER OF THE AREA GETTING REPORTS OF
TRAVEL NOT ADVISED AND CONSISTENT LOWERED VSBYS AT A FEW NORTHERN
LOCATIONS...SO WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE WARNING AS IS. ONLY OTHER
CHANGE WAS TO SHORTEN THE DURATION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
HEADLINES...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO LOWER AND SNOW SHOWERS TO COME
TO AN END TOWARD MID AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS PRETTY QUIET OVERALL. AT 500 MB A LARGE
GYRE WILL BE CARVED OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE
ENTIRE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS LYING BENEATH ITS CYCLONIC FLOW
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AROUND THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...EVEN AS
THE ASSOCIATED WESTERN U.S. RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO ENCROACH UPON THE
MIDWEST...ANOTHER COMPACT BUT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER OR
NEAR IOWA AND REINFORCE THE EASTERN GYRE...DELAYING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WARMING. FINALLY...AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE PATTERN SHOULD BREAK DOWN ALLOWING FOR THE RIDGE TO
MOVE EASTWARD.
IN TERMS OF LOWER LEVELS AND SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE SNOW SHOWERS
AND STRONG WINDS AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SNOW LIKELY ENDING IN OUR EAST BY MIDNIGHT.
NORTH NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS IOWA...BRINGING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS REGIME WILL LIKELY COME ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS GETTING DOWN TO 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO IN
OUR NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. MEANWHILE VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN DEPICTING A ZONE OF WEAK FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING ALOFT MOVING OVER THE AREA AROUND WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY PRODUCING LIGHT SNOWFALL...HOWEVER THESE
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE IN TIME AND SPACE OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IN ADDITION...WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH DRAPED ACROSS IOWA DURING THAT TIME FRAME FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT WOULD INHIBIT ANY MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MAY COME AROUND FRIDAY WHEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN THERE IS A LOT OF RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN
THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY RESULTING PRECIPITATION. IF THE
PROGNOSTIC MODELS ARE ABLE TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION THEN IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AT THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK....PROBABLY FOLLOWED BY MORE COOL AIR TO BEGIN
THE WEEKEND. FINALLY...AT THE END OF THE FORECAST...THE DEEP LAYER
RIDGE MOVING EASTWARD SHOULD BRING A RETURN OF SOMEWHAT MILDER
WEATHER TOWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...08/18Z
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL IA DUE TO CLOUDS AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW. LITTLE
CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT VERY GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS CONTRIBUTIONS OF SNOW SHOWERS BEGIN TO WANE. AT LEAST
MVFR STRATUS AND/OR BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO TUE
MORNING IN MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH
THE PERIOD BUT REMAIN BRISK.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-
ADAMS-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BREMER-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DECATUR-
GUTHRIE-JASPER-MADISON-MARSHALL-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-STORY-
TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BOONE-BUTLER-
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-
GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SMALL
SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1013 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
ALL HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED TO END TIME OF 00Z TO BLEND INTO
THINKING OF ADJACENT OFFICES FOR CONSISTENT MESSAGING. THE LATEST
HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST CONTRIBUTIONS OF ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY STILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONTINUE DRAMATIC VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY IN RURAL OPEN AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
TRICKY FORECAST CONTINUES FOR THE SHORT TERM...WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH INTERMITTENT SNOW
SHOWERS. STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES AND CAA COMING THROUGH NOW
TOWARD SUNRISE...WITH ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT OF WINDS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...WITH SATURATION
AND WEAK LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER TO KEEP THREAT FOR DECENT
SNOW SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE DAY. NAM/GFS SEEM OVERDONE ON WINDS
WITH AROUND 50 TO 55 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE SREF/RAP MUCH LESS AROUND 40-45KTS.
NAM/GFS INDICATING THAT THOSE HIGHER WINDS GUSTS ALREADY EXPECTED
TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE CWA...AND CURRENTLY GETTING GUSTS TOPPING
OUT AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH. THEREFORE TRENDED WINDS DOWN A BIT
THROUGH THE DAY GOING CLOSER TO THE RAP/SREF VALUES. WITH THE
LOWERED WINDS...HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING MUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS...THEREFORE HAVE DOWNGRADED SOME OF
THE FRINGES OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
STILL SOME PARTIALLY COVERED/COMPLETELY COVERED ROADWAYS THAT ARE
SLICK DUE TO DRIFTING SNOW...BUT OVERALL VISIBILITIES/BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS NOT BEING REALIZED IN THE SOUTHERN MOST/EASTERN-MOST
AREAS OF THE WARNING. REMAINDER OF THE AREA GETTING REPORTS OF
TRAVEL NOT ADVISED AND CONSISTENT LOWERED VSBYS AT A FEW NORTHERN
LOCATIONS...SO WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE WARNING AS IS. ONLY OTHER
CHANGE WAS TO SHORTEN THE DURATION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
HEADLINES...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO LOWER AND SNOW SHOWERS TO COME
TO AN END TOWARD MID AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS PRETTY QUIET OVERALL. AT 500 MB A LARGE
GYRE WILL BE CARVED OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE
ENTIRE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS LYING BENEATH ITS CYCLONIC FLOW
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AROUND THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...EVEN AS
THE ASSOCIATED WESTERN U.S. RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO ENCROACH UPON THE
MIDWEST...ANOTHER COMPACT BUT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER OR
NEAR IOWA AND REINFORCE THE EASTERN GYRE...DELAYING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WARMING. FINALLY...AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE PATTERN SHOULD BREAK DOWN ALLOWING FOR THE RIDGE TO
MOVE EASTWARD.
IN TERMS OF LOWER LEVELS AND SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE SNOW SHOWERS
AND STRONG WINDS AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SNOW LIKELY ENDING IN OUR EAST BY MIDNIGHT.
NORTH NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS IOWA...BRINGING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS REGIME WILL LIKELY COME ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS GETTING DOWN TO 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO IN
OUR NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. MEANWHILE VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN DEPICTING A ZONE OF WEAK FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING ALOFT MOVING OVER THE AREA AROUND WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY PRODUCING LIGHT SNOWFALL...HOWEVER THESE
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE IN TIME AND SPACE OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IN ADDITION...WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH DRAPED ACROSS IOWA DURING THAT TIME FRAME FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT WOULD INHIBIT ANY MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MAY COME AROUND FRIDAY WHEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN THERE IS A LOT OF RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN
THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY RESULTING PRECIPITATION. IF THE
PROGNOSTIC MODELS ARE ABLE TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION THEN IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AT THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK....PROBABLY FOLLOWED BY MORE COOL AIR TO BEGIN
THE WEEKEND. FINALLY...AT THE END OF THE FORECAST...THE DEEP LAYER
RIDGE MOVING EASTWARD SHOULD BRING A RETURN OF SOMEWHAT MILDER
WEATHER TOWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...08/12Z
ISSUED AT 538 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND INTERMITTENT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY LOWERING
VSBYS WITH BLOWING SNOW AS WELL. MAINLY IFR TO MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED
AT THE TERMINAL SITES...WITH POSSIBLY DIPS TO LIFR. WINDS TO
DIMINISH SOME TOWARD EVENING...WITH VSBYS IMPROVING BUT LOW CIGS
REMAIN.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-
ADAMS-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BREMER-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DECATUR-
GUTHRIE-JASPER-MADISON-MARSHALL-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-STORY-
TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BOONE-BUTLER-
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-
GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SMALL
SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...BEERENDS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
156 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 156 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016
UPDATED TO BLEND EARLY AFTERNOON OBS INTO THE FORECAST...WITHOUT
ANY SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1015 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
HAVE UPDATED TO FINE TUNE THE TIMING OF THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP
HEADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ALSO BLENDED OBSERVED TEMPS
AND SKY CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 836 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ALREADY MOVING IN FROM
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THE
EAST. SNOW HAS BEEN MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...SO HAVE ALLOWED FOR MORE OF A SNOW MENTION THROUGH THE
REST OF THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RECOVER TO THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40...ALTHOUGH DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SHOWERS
AND THICKER CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN...THESE HIGHS MIGHT BE A BIT
GENEROUS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
VALLEY TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED IN THE PAST HOUR...HOWEVER
BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP RUNS...AM STILL CONCERNED FOR
SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN THE EAST POTENTIALLY ENDING UP WITH A
LIGHT GLAZE. AS SUCH...HAVE HOISTED A SHORT FUSE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. IF THE BETTER WARMING
TRENDS CONTINUE LIKE THEY HAVE IN THE PAST HOUR...THEN THIS WILL
LIKELY GET DROPPED BEFORE EXPIRING.
ONCE THIS FIRST BATCH OF RAIN DEPARTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THERE
WILL BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...UNTIL A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE LAPSE RATES STEEPEN UP
QUITE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER...WITH THE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S FOR MOST TODAY...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY HOLDING OFF FOR MOST PLACES UNTIL DUSK OR SLIGHTLY
THEREAFTER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AS THE COLUMN COOLS QUICKER ALOFT.
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS WILL KICK IN TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY DEEPENS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES ROTATE THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY. STORM TOTALS STILL LOOK TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TAKING A NOSE DIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
READINGS FALLING BELOW FREEZING BY THIS EVENING...AND THEN INTO
THE 20S THROUGH TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE SIMILAR EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN BUT
DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST 72 HOURS OR SO OF THE
FORECAST. BROAD MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL IMPULSES
ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE. MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE
A LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE THAT MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY
WEATHER FOR THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS BOTH RUNS THE 0Z ECMWF
AND GFS HAVE DIVERGED FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS OF 24 HOUR
BACK. THE 0/06Z GFS HAS TRENDED FASTER...MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS...HARDLY PRODUCING ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE 0Z ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM...CARRYING A DEEPENING SFC
WAVE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. CONSEQUENTLY THE ECMWF
ADVERTISES A MORE FAVORABLE PATH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL AND CURRENTLY ADVERTISES SUCH. HOWEVER...OVERALL
CONFIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO RUN LOW WITH EITHER SOLUTION UNTIL
THERE IS BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016
A BAND OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PASSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING A QUICK DROP TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW. EAST OF THIS BAND...CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY
VFR. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY AND
THIS EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL CREATE MVFR CONDITIONS...AND IFR AT
TIMES...LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-111-
114-116.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ088-118-
120.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ104-106>110-112-113-115-117-119.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ087.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL/GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
121 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
HAVE UPDATED TO FINE TUNE THE TIMING OF THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP
HEADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ALSO BLENDED OBSERVED TEMPS
AND SKY CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 836 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ALREADY MOVING IN FROM
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THE
EAST. SNOW HAS BEEN MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...SO HAVE ALLOWED FOR MORE OF A SNOW MENTION THROUGH THE
REST OF THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RECOVER TO THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40...ALTHOUGH DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SHOWERS
AND THICKER CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN...THESE HIGHS MIGHT BE A BIT
GENEROUS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
VALLEY TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED IN THE PAST HOUR...HOWEVER
BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP RUNS...AM STILL CONCERNED FOR
SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN THE EAST POTENTIALLY ENDING UP WITH A
LIGHT GLAZE. AS SUCH...HAVE HOISTED A SHORT FUSE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. IF THE BETTER WARMING
TRENDS CONTINUE LIKE THEY HAVE IN THE PAST HOUR...THEN THIS WILL
LIKELY GET DROPPED BEFORE EXPIRING.
ONCE THIS FIRST BATCH OF RAIN DEPARTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THERE
WILL BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...UNTIL A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE LAPSE RATES STEEPEN UP
QUITE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER...WITH THE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S FOR MOST TODAY...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY HOLDING OFF FOR MOST PLACES UNTIL DUSK OR SLIGHTLY
THEREAFTER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AS THE COLUMN COOLS QUICKER ALOFT.
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS WILL KICK IN TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY DEEPENS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES ROTATE THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY. STORM TOTALS STILL LOOK TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TAKING A NOSE DIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
READINGS FALLING BELOW FREEZING BY THIS EVENING...AND THEN INTO
THE 20S THROUGH TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE SIMILAR EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN BUT
DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST 72 HOURS OR SO OF THE
FORECAST. BROAD MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL IMPULSES
ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE. MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE
A LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE THAT MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY
WEATHER FOR THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS BOTH RUNS THE 0Z ECMWF
AND GFS HAVE DIVERGED FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS OF 24 HOUR
BACK. THE 0/06Z GFS HAS TRENDED FASTER...MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS...HARDLY PRODUCING ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE 0Z ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM...CARRYING A DEEPENING SFC
WAVE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. CONSEQUENTLY THE ECMWF
ADVERTISES A MORE FAVORABLE PATH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL AND CURRENTLY ADVERTISES SUCH. HOWEVER...OVERALL
CONFIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO RUN LOW WITH EITHER SOLUTION UNTIL
THERE IS BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016
A BAND OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PASSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING A QUICK DROP TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW. EAST OF THIS BAND...CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY
VFR. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY AND
THIS EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL CREATE MVFR CONDITIONS...AND IFR AT
TIMES...LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-111-
114-116.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ088-118-
120.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ104-106>110-112-113-115-117-119.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ087.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL/GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
413 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. VERY COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT THE
END OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
NORTHEAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW CHANCES THIS TERM. THE MAIN THING IN
QUESTION IS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. TOUGH FORECAST COMING UP.
LATEST 20Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD INTENSE SFC LOW SE OF NOVA SCOTIA
BOMBING OUT AND FILLING. REGIONAL RADAR, INCLUDING THE LATEST MRMS
SHOWED WESTERN EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD MOVING ONTO THE COAST AND
INTO PORTIONS OF INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE. THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE INCLUDING
THE RAP AND HRRR 3KM WERE DOING WELL W/THE PLACEMENT PER THE LATEST
RADAR ALONG W/THE 12Z REGIONAL CANADIAN GEM. 12Z UA ANALYSIS SHOWED
80-100 KT JET DIVING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW OVER GREAT LAKES WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER TROF TO SHARPEN AS IT SWINGS E. THE
TIMING FOR SNOW FURTHER N HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK AS WELL AS CUTTING
BACK ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BY AN INCH OR TWO. THE GUSTY NNE WINDS
WILL DROP OFF LATER THIS EVENING AS THE INTENSE LOW PULLS AWAY.
LLVL CONVERGENCE IN CONJUNCTION W/A DEVELOPING UPPER FRONT WILL
LEAD TO AN AREA OF SNOW ACROSS THE DOWNEAST THIS EVENING W/SOME
BRIEF HEAVY BANDS. SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING
THE MT. KATAHDIN REGIONAL LATER THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT LIFTS
NORTH. THE SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REST OF NORTHERN MAINE BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. DESPITE LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP FORECAST
TO BE 0.25 TO 0.50 FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, HIGHER SNOW
RATIOS(16-19:1) WILL LEAD TO SOME HIGHER SNOW TOTALS W/THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLUFFY SNOW. SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT A BRIEF
PERIOD DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH WHICH WOULD ENHANCE SNOWFALL FOR A
TIME. OVERALL ATTM, LOOKING FOR HIGHEST TOTALS(4-8 INCHES) ACROSS
DOWNEAST AND EASTERN SECTIONS AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS SUCH AS
PORTIONS OF PISCATAQUIS COUNTY AND MT. KATAHDIN. FURTHER N ACROSS
HOULTON ON UP THROUGH CARIBOU INTO THE ST. JOHN VALLEY, SNOWFALL
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 3-6 INCH RANGE.
SNOW WILL END ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS BY LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON AND LINGER LONGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS IN
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THAT A NNE WIND ACROSS THE ST. JOHN
VALLEY HAS HISTORY OF LEADING TO SOME UPSLOPE AND FORECAST QPF OF
AROUND 0.25", DECIDED TO ADD THE ST. JOHN VALLEY AND NORTHERN
SOMERSET INTO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY W/SNOW FORECAST OF UP TO
4 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL W/20S EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NORTHEAST AS WE GO INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD. MOISTURE WITHIN
THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WEAK SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SMALL AREAS
OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL STAY MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH. ONE LOW WILL
SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER SMALL LOW
SLIDING TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY. THE SMALL LOW ON THURSDAY MAY
TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST POSSIBLY GIVING A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS. OTHERWISE, ONLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AT THE END OF THE
WEEK WILL BRING VERY COLD AIR TO THE REGION. A SMALL LOW WHISKING OUT
TO SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MAY PRODUCE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION, AND POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW ALONG THE COAST. OTHERWISE, MAINLY DRY AND VERY COLD WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A NORTHWEST BREEZE SATURDAY AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY MAY REQUIRE WIND CHILL HEADLINES OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES SOUTH TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON
MONDAY AS A WEAK LOW MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS
CURRENTLY DIFFER WITH THE GFS BRINGING THIS LOW IN MONDAY AND THE
ECMWF BRINGING IT IN LATE TUESDAY. FOR NOW WILL BRING LOW CHANCES
FOR SNOW LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TO START THIS EVENING
AND THEN CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR. MVFR FOR KBGR GOING TO IFR
TONIGHT IN SNOW. KBHB ALREADY DOWN TO IFR AND COULD SEE PERIODS OF
LIFR TONIGHT. BLOWING SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR KBHB AND FOR KBGR
THIS EVENING. NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL BE MVFR TO IFR FOR TUESDAY
W/SNOW WHILE KBGR AND KBHB BEGIN TO IMPROVE TO MVFR BY THE
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH VARIABLE MID AND LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR ALONG THE COAST IN
A PERIOD OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH VFR TO
OCCASIONALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER, THERE IS A
SMALL POSSIBILITY LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MAY LOWER CONDITIONS TO
MVFR OR BRIEFLY IFR DOWNEAST ON SATURDAY IN LIGHT SNOW IF IT
TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WARNING STAYS UP THROUGH 10 PM. GUSTS AVERAGING 35
TO 40 KTS ATTM. BUOYS REPORTED 45+ KTS EARLIER TODAY BUT AS THE
LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY, THE GRADIENT WILL LOOSEN W/WINDS
DROPPING OFF BELOW 35 KTS LATER THIS EVENING. THE EVENING CREW
WILL MOST LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THINGS BACK TO SCA LEVELS. WIND
DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE NNW OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 11 TO 14 FOOT RANGE THIS EVENING
AND THEN ARE FORECAST TO DROP BACK BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A
SWELL GENERATION IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY W/PERIODS OF 10-13 SECONDS.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH SCA LATE THURSDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA ON FRIDAY. AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED
SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY AND FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES MAY NEED
TO BE ISSUED OVER THE WEEKEND AS VERY COLD AIR MOVES OVER THE
WATERS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN EXTRA-TROPICAL STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1-1.5 FT IS EXPECTED LATER
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. HIGH TIDE TONIGHT IS AROUND 11
PM AND AROUND 11 AM ON TUESDAY. TIDES ARE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED SURGE AND THE WAVES OF 10-13 FT COULD LEAD TO SOME
SPLASH-OVER AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE MORE SO ON TUESDAY.
COLLABORATED W/GYX AND DECIDED TO GO W/A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR MEZ002-004>006-010.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR MEZ001-003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ011-
015>017-031-032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...HEWITT/BLOOMER
MARINE...HEWITT/BLOOMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
155 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL PASS WELL EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY. A VERY
COLD AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
145 PM UPDATE...FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE SKY TO BRING MOVE
CLOUDS FURTHER N AND BRING TIMING OF SNOW IN A BIT QUICKER OVER
THE DOWNEAST ESPECIALLY THE COAST. HRRR 3KM AND RAP DOING WELL
W/THE PLACEMENT OF RADAR RETURNS/PRECIP AND PLACEMENT OF LOW
PASSING S OF NOVA SCOTIA. GETTING REPORTS OF SNOW ALONG THE COAST
ATTM W/SOME REPORTS OF MODERATE SNOW. MRMS & CBW RADAR SHOWED
HIGHER RETURNS(25-30DBZ)PULLING WNW ONTO THE DOWNEAST COAST.
ADJUSTED THE 6HRLY SNOWFALL UPWARD BY AND INCH FOR THE COAST
THROUGH 00Z. ATTM, HEADLINES STAY AS THEY ARE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS HAVE THE LOW PASSING ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF HALIFAX,
NS AT 06Z TONIGHT. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES NOSING DOWN INTO
MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
MID LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE STORM WILL LIFT EAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT, BUT WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING BACK ACROSS
MAINE TO ANOTHER LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ALONG
THE COAST AROUND MIDDAY TODAY AND WILL SPREAD NORTH TO THE GREATER
BANGOR AREA AROUND 3 OR 4 PM. THE SNOW WILL LIFT NORTH TO THE
SAINT JOHN VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. A STRONG GRADIENT ALONG THE
COAST WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. WILL WILL
EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES NORTH, BUT WILL LEAVE THE FAR
NORTHWEST (NW AROOSTOOK AND NORTHERN SOMERSET) OUT OF THE
ADVISORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STEADY SNFL TUE MORN WILL WIND DOWN FROM S TO N ACROSS THE FA BY
TUE AFTN...TAPERING TO LIGHTER SN SHWRS. ALTHOUGH WE DID XTND WNTR
WX ADVS NWRD INTO N CNTRL AND FAR NE PTNS OF THE FA BASED ON
NEARLY ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING EVENT TOTAL QPF REACHING
OR EXCEEDING 0.30 INCHES...THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL TYPE OF A MAJOR
SFC LOW TRACKING WELL S OF NOVA SCOTIA WITH SFC RIDGING XTNDG SWRD
FROM LABRADOR INTO NW ME NOT MATCHING THIS MUCH FCST QPF. WE
BELIEVE A WEAK E-W...SLOWLY NWRD LIFTING SFC-700 MB TROF ACROSS
THE REGION IS PROVIDING THE FOCUS OF STEADY SNFL MON NGT THRU TUE
MORN. SO CONFIDENCE OF SN TOTALS IS NOT HIGH. SAYING THIS OUR FCST
SN TOTALS WITH THIS UPDATE ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE 50 PERCENT
THRESHOLD OF ENSEMBLE BASED FCST SNFL ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS
A FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE FCST GIVEN THAT WE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THIS
EVENT FOR THE ISSUANCE OF WNTR WX ADV HDLNS.
FOLLOWING STEADY SNFL...CLDY SKIES AND SCT SN SHWRS WILL CONT LATE
TUE AFTN THRU THU AS OTHER UPPER TROFS FROM THE GREAT LKS CROSS
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE MILDER TUE THRU THU MORN...THEN TURN
COLDER THU AFTN FOLLOWING AN ARCTIC FRONT BEHIND THE LAST SIG
UPPER TROF.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFT A BRIEF BREAK THU NGT INTO FRI MORN...A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR IS LIKELY GOING TO MOVE INTO THE FA FOR LATER FRI INTO
THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP MID LVL VORTEX MOVES FROM NRN CAN TOWARD THE
CAN MARITIMES. THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS IS MUCH COLDER WITH 925-850MB
TEMPS (BY 5 TO 10 DEG C) THAN THE 00Z ECMWF DURING THIS
PD...SUBSEQUENTLY...OUR FCST HI/LOW TEMPS BASED ON A BLEND OF
MODELS IS NOT AS COLD AS THE GFS WOULD IMPLY BY ITSELF...AND ALSO
KEEPING IN MIND...THAT WE HAVE HAD NOT HAD ANY HI RESIDENCE ARCTIC
AIR MASSES FROM NRN CAN REACHING OUR LATITUDE SO FAR THIS WINTER.
FOR NOW...WE ARE NOT EMPHASIZING THE SFC LOW THE 00Z ECMWF WINDS
UP IN THE GULF OF ME ON SAT ATTM SINCE IT IS NOT BACKED UP BY THE
00Z ECMWF ESBM...BUT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH OUT FOR AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL START OFF VFR AT ALL TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR AND AT TIMES VLIFR
AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL LOWER
TO MVFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS EVENING AND TO IFR AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES IN STEADY FALLING SN TUE
MORN WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR IN SN SHWRS FROM S TO N TUE AFTN INTO
EVE...THEN IMPROVE TO VFR DOWNEAST SITES WITH SCT FLURRIES WED
AND CONT TIL FRI WHILE NRN TAF SITES CONT MVFR WITH SCT SN SHWRS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WILL
NEED TO BE TRANSITIONED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WHEN THE GALES
COME DOWN TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: AT OR JUST BLO SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONT THRU THE MID
TO LATE WEEK...WITH SEAS HIGHEST TUE MORN FOLLOWING THE ENDING OF
THE GALE PD AS STRONG LOW PRES EXITS INTO THE OPEN N ATLC. KEPT
CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV HTS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FZG
SPY...WITH LGT AMOUNTS POSSIBLE TUE MORN ACROSS THE INNER
BAY/HARBOR MZ052. HEAVIER FZG SPY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE WEEK
INTO HE WEEKEND WHEN MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY CROSS THE
WATERS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN EXTRA-TROPICAL STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON, AND TIDES ARE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH. THE STORM SURGE IS
EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND THE TIME OF LOW TIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME VERY MINOR SPLASH-OVER AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE IS
POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING, BUT BECAUSE THE PEAK STORM SURGE
CORRESPONDS TO TIME OF LOW TIDE THERE ARE UNLIKELY TO BE ANY
SIGNIFICANT ISSUES.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING FOR ONLY
THE 6TH TIME THIS WINTER AT CARIBOU. THIS IS THE FEWEST TIMES
THROUGH FEB 8TH THAT THE TEMPERATURE HAS DROPPED BELOW ZERO AT
CARIBOU SINCE 1940. DURING THE WINTER OF 2001-2002, THE
TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW ZERO ONLY 9 TIMES BY THIS POINT IN THE
SEASON.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR MEZ002-004>006-010.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ011-
015>017-031-032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1151 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND A TROUGH FROM
NRN ONTARIO THROUGH THE WRN LAKES. A MID LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER
WRN WI WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING ON ITS N AND NW FLANK
FROM NE MN THROUGH THE WRN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI INTO
NW WI. AT THE SFC...NRLY WINDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS W UPPER MI AS
LOW PRES OVER CNTRL UPPER MI SLOWLY MOVES TO THE E. CAA BEHIND THE
LOW HAS DROPPED 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -10C OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN LAKE ENHANCED SNOW...ESPECIALLY WHERE
UPSLOPE FLOW IS STRONGEST. OTHERWISE...TEMPS REMAINED NEAR 32F
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA.
TODAY...AS THE SFC LOW SLIDES TO THE SE INTO LOWER MI...EXPECT NRLY
WINDS BEHIND THE LOW TO BRING COLDER AIR THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER
MI WITH FALLING TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER THE N TO NNW FLOW
SNOWBELTS AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE -12C TO -16C RANGE. SO...THE
WINTER WX ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED INTO THE KEWEENAW WHERE ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REST OF THE CWA.
TONIGHT...INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT LES FOR N TO NNW FLOW LOCATIONS
WILL INCREASE AS 850 MB TEMP FALL INTO THE -14C TO -18C RANGE. THIS
WILL ALSO LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SLR VALUES TO NEAR 25/1 AS THE DGZ
WILL BE SITUATED IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEST WITH 1
TO 3 INCHES N CNTRL WHERE THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATER. ADDITIONAL
SNOW OVER THE REST OF THE AREA OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW SLIDES SLOWLY EAST TO NEAR LAKE HURON BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF THE U.P. IN NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY COOL ON CAA INTO THE
AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -22C/-25C BY TUESDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HAPPEN AS A SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SHOT OF COLD AIR SLIDE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...HEAVIEST IN THE NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WOULD BE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE FAR WEST AND THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST.
THIS TRANSITION WILL FOLLOW THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND MUCH COLDER AIR
WORKING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL BE IN A
DEEPER LAYER OF THE DGZ EARLY IN THE MORNING OVER THE WEST WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 4-6KFT. MOST OF THE MOISTURE
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL BE BELOW 3-4KFT WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT OVER THE WEST. THE DGZ WILL BECOME MUCH
SHALLOWER THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE FAR WEST AS THE VERY CHILLY AIR
SLIDES IN ALOFT. NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE U.P. WILL
SEE THE DEEP MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND THROUGH THE DAY WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS STAYING AROUND 5-7KFT AND A DEEPER CONVECTIVE
CLOUD LAYER IN THE DGZ. THIS SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE MODERATE SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THESE AREA GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGER SNOWFLAKE SIZES. TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
MUCH COLDER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD LAYER ACROSS THE U.P. COLDER THAN THE IDEAL DGZ...WHICH WILL
PROVIDE MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES AND LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. THE
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN COULD SEE ANOTHER 1 TO 4 INCHES TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE NORTH CENTRAL 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST
TOTALS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE AND BARAGA
COUNTIES. LATER SHIFTS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO EXPAND THE ADVISORIES
EASTWARD INTO BARAGA...MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES FOR THE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN DUG IN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. THE CHILLY AIR AT 850MB WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THE
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE LAYER WERE IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY
TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL
CANADA. WILL STILL SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH
DIMINISHED RATE...FOR MORE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER
TO THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE ON THE INFLECTION POINT
BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/EC
ARE SHOWING A 500MB CLOSED LOW SLIDING ACROSS HUDSON BAY THURSDAY
NIGHT TO CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS
HAPPENS...EXPECT A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE WRAPPING THROUGH THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED AREAS.
AGAIN...WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE SLIDING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE
U.P. PLACED THE BETTER CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THOSE AREAS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SNOW SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH THOUGH AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR MOVING IN WILL PRESS THE FAVORED DGZ
DOWN TO THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IT WILL BE FAIRLY
SHALLOW TOO.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT WHICH IS
NOT UNCOMMON FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE GFS
TRIES TO BRING A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE EC PUSHES A SURFACE
RIDGE AND BRIEF UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD. AT THIS POINT WENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS
GIVING ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
AS A CYCLONIC NNW FLOW OF COLD AIR PERSISTS ACROSS WRN UPPER MI
THROUGH TONIGHT...EXPECT SN AND MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO
PREDOMINATE. THERE MAY BE A FEW PERIODS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT SAW WHERE THE NNW WINDS WILL BE LESS
FAVORABLE FOR THE STRONGER LAKE ENHANCED OR LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016
THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER N LOWER MI
TODAY...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY. THE RESULT MARINE WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS TO 20 TO
30KNOTS WITH AND GALES TO 35KTS OVER N CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY-
TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE E
HALF TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH
THE HEAVIEST FREEZING SPRAY FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE N PLAINS TUESDAY SLOWLY
GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO
SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE START OF THE NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
MIZ001>003-009.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
LSZ264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
327 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOW REGION IN
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST WHILE AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST.
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT PRODUCED VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN ADDITION
TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 00Z WHEN ALL WINDS SHOULD BE
BELOW CRITERIA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NATION`S
MID SECTION THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WILL FOCUS MAINLY ON TEMPERATURES AS ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN CHANCES
ARE MINIMAL.
WE CONTINUE A VERY SMALL POP IN OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY AS A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH A VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH UPPER TEENS IN
OUR NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S IN OUR SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE FLOW ON FRIDAY WITH
MUCH OF THE STRONG FORCING REMAINING TO OUR NORTHEAST.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGING TO THE WEST DEAMPLIFIES LEAVING OUR REGION IN
MORE OF A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS STRONG 1047 MB HIGH.
THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BRINGING A CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO
THE NATION`S MID SECTION ON SUNDAY BUT WILL WAIT FOR SOME BETTER
MODEL CONTINUITY BEFORE ADDING A BUNCH OF POPS FOR THE TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
SOME MVFR CEILING SHOULD LINGER THIS AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT KOMA. THE MAJORITY OF THE
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE TENDS TO DECREASE CLOUDS BELOW 5000
FEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...WITH VARIABLE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS AFTER THAT. THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE THAT DOES KEEP
MVFR CEILINGS WELL INTO THE EVENING...SO THAT IS POSSIBLE. EXPECT
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH GUSTS ENDING OVERNIGHT.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-
055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
079-080-090-091.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
335 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THIS WEEK...BUT WILL DROP WAY BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE
AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA...GIVEN THE VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS FROM WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE. KVSF SURFACE DEWPOINT IS
CURRENTLY -13F...INDICATING THE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS WITH RH VALUES
IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. EXPECT VIRGA WITH INITIAL BAND LIFTING
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE DEEPENING FROM A COMBINATION
OF UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND DEPARTING OCEAN STORM.
THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME VERY WEAK LIFT FROM 5H VORT ROTATING
THRU OUR REGION. NAM/GFS AND LATEST RAP SHOW THE BEST COMBINATION OF
LIFT/MOISTURE MOVES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS OUR REGION BETWEEN
00Z AND 09Z TONIGHT...WITH DEVELOPING DRY SLOT IMPACTING OUR
SOUTHERN REGIONS BY 12Z TUESDAY. QPF FOR THIS MINIMAL EVENT WILL BE
VERY LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER 0.10 WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A
DUSTING TO 2 INCHES. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS BETWEEN SURFACE AND 850MB
NOT EXPECTING MUCH TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOWFALL WITH A VERY UNIFORMED
SNOWFALL ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS
TO MID 20S MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...BUT HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES ON
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...BUT AREA SEEMS TO
BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
BE TRICKY ON TUESDAY WITH A SHARP 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPS RANGE FROM -7C
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE TO -14C NORTHEAST KINGDOM...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S TO MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR
REGION...WITH WARMEST VALUES IN THE WEST. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP
IMMEDIATE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN THE MID 20S...WHILE
POTSDAM/CANTON SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 30S.
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH 5H VORT AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRES WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ON TUES NIGHT
INTO WEDS NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND DEVELOPING
COLD POOL ALOFT...PW VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.25. THIS
SUPPORTS ONLY LIGHT QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT GIVEN FLUFF
FACTOR...SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. BEST DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE ARRIVES AROUND 12Z WEDS...BUT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST IN
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT. WILL MENTION CHC POPS VALLEYS TO LIKELY IN
THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR WEDS...BUT SLOWLY FALL BY
WEDS NIGHT UNDER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST SURFACE
TO 850MB FLOW OF 15 TO 30 KNOTS. SOME LOCALIZED UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
IS POSSIBLE WEDS NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE PROFILES ARE VERY LIMITED.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN THE CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH MAY ALLOW FOR A STEADIER
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING
TO AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE EXITS TO THE
EAST. MIN TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5
BELOW ZERO.
MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH DEEP UPPER LOW. ECMWF
INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW ALONG THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD KEEP CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO
SATURDAY...BUT GFS SHOWS ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT WELL OFFSHORE WITH
SNOW SHOWERS ENDING IN MOST SPOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY
DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.
BIG STORY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE THE ARCTIC CHILL...WITH
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THIS POINT EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION WILL BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW IN MOST AREAS...BUT WILL HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS 850 MB
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND -30C. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO. COLDEST TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
BELOW...WITH LOWER READINGS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONLY 5 TO 10 ABOVE WITH SOME SUNSHINE. ANOTHER
NIGHT OF SUBZERO TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MODERATION BEGINS ON
MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING LATER TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z TUESDAY WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR AND VISIBILITIES TO IFR WITHIN A COUPLE
OF HOURS OF ONSET OF SNOW. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT MOST SITES
BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5 TO 10
KTS TODAY...WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS AT MSS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
18Z TUE-00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.
00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHSN.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
607 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE A BLAST OF VERY COLD AIR
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 550 PM MONDAY...SHRA ASSOC WITH COLD FRONT HOLDING TOGETHER
AS THEY APPROACH CSTL PLAIN. BASED ON RDR AND HIGH RES MDLS WILL
UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR A FEW HRS THIS EVENING WRN TIER AS SHRA
MOVE INTO THE REGION. MOST OF THE MDLS SHOWS SHRA DISSIPATING A
BIT AS THEY MOVE CLOSER TO CST SO WILL KEEP CHC POP THESE AREAS FOR
NOW. NO CHANGE TO TEMPS WITH AROUND 35 INLAND TO UPR 30S/AROUND 40
BEACHES.
PREV DISC...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND A DEVELOPING ANOMALOUSLY DEEP EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
MAINLY THIS EVENING. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE WRF-
NMM/NSSL- WRF AND HRRR INDICATE A WEAKENING BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN NC BETWEEN 00Z- 06Z THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND/NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT LESS THAN 0.10" IN MOST LOCATIONS.
COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID 30S AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A SURFACE REFLECTION. MEAN RH
500-1000 MB INCREASES BUT THERE IS A LOT LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
WHICH WILL TO ACT TO INHIBIT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE
LATEST MODELS NOT GENERATING MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL ISSUE
A DRY FORECAST ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE COULD
OCCUR. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPING FLOW
SUCH THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY:
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PLACED
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF U.S...BRING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE LACK
OF MOISTURE SOURCE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY OVER EASTERN NC
THROUGH THURSDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A CHILLY AND PARTLY
CLOUDY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH HIGHS TEMPS
STRUGGLING INTO THE 40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THICKNESSES QUITE LOW AND CONTINUING
WESTERLY BREEZE MAKES THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S FEEL
MORE LIKE THE TEENS.
THURSDAY...HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO RISE/DEAMPLIFY...BUT
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN DOMINATE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF.
850MB TEMPERATURE STILL REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE...THEREFORE LEADING
TO ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S UNDER SUNNY
SKIES. THURSDAY NIGHT, EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW 20S.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN FROM
CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LEADING TO RE-AMPLIFYING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF U.S. AND BRINGING EVEN
COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
BOTH THE 08/12Z GFS AND 08/00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO HAVE DISAGREEMENTS
WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER. ECMWF QUITE A BIT STRONGER
WITH FORCING...MOISTURE AND KEEPING MOST OF PRECIP LIQUID. WHILE GFS
LESS AMPLIFIED THOUGH...IT BRINGS THE THREAT OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
FOR E NC. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...IN TRACKING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN ON
THE BACK-SIDE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT COULD POTENTIALLY SUPPORT
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS OF
RA/SN MIX WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO MID 40S
COAST.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. THE
850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET BY SUNDAY TO AROUND -20C WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE 1220-1230M RANGE. THIS CAN BRING VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY...WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ABOVE FREEZING...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 30S.
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS THE LONG WAVE THOUGH
AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE...WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING BACK INTO THE
40S.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 550 PM MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BAND OF SHRA WILL IMPACT TAF
SITES FIRST FEW HRS OF FCST WITH POSS SOME BRIEF SUB VFR POSS
ESPCLY AT PGV AND ISO. LATER TONIGHT DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES OFFSHORE
WITH VFR EXPECTED AS ANY CIGS WILL BE ABOVE 3K FEET. ANOTHER SHRT
WAVE WILL CROSS TUE BUT OVERALL MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED. MDLS SHOW GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE AROUND 5K FT SO
WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME CIGS IN THIS RANGE. W WINDS WILL GUST AT
TIMES TO 20 KT ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX ON FRIDAY WITH A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH FROM THE WEST. STILL QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME AS MODELS IT
IS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME HOW MUCH MOISTURE AND COLD AIR WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR RAIN OR SNOW. STAY TUNED.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 607 PM MONDAY...FSCA CONT CSTL WTRS TONIGHT...SEAS REMAIN
VERY LARGE IN SWELL N OF HAT...RAISED SEAS SEVERAL FEET OVER NRN
AND CENTRAL WTRS REST OF THE NIGHT AS WAVE GUIDANCE IS SEVERLY
UNDERDONE.
PREV DISC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN AFFECT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND ALLIGATOR RIVER BEGINNING
LATE TUESDAY. CONTINUE ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. A NEW
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND FOR TUESDAY.
LARGE DANGEROUS SWELL CONTINUES OFF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COAST
AND THE WAVE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS WELL AS THEY ARE UNDERDONE
BY SEVERAL FEET. THIS SWELL SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOME LATE
THIS EVENING BUT THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
LATER TONIGHT ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AND THIS WILL
HALT ANY FURTHER DECREASE IN SEAS. BEHIND THE FRONT WESTERLY FLOW
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT HIGHEST SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND ALL WATERS TUESDAY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO GALE FORCE BUT NOT CONVINCED FREQUENCY WILL
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A GALE WARNING SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. LATE TUESDAY GUSTS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6 FEET WITH PERIODS
SHORTENING UP ON TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND
ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS AND
PAMLICO SOUND. THERE WILL BE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE. EXPECT NW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS AND 2 TO 4 FT. SEAS AND WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS ANOTHER SECONDARY COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...LINGERING VERY LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH
YESTERDAYS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE OUTER
BANKS THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE HIGH
TIDES THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING WILL LEAD TO OCEAN OVERWASH
AND BEACH EROSION ESPECIALLY ALONG HATTERAS ISLAND. PORTIONS OF
HIGHWAY 12 IN THE USUAL VULNERABLE LOCATIONS COULD BECOME WATER
COVERED AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING.
PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING/ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ104.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...RF/JME/BM
MARINE...RF/JME/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
553 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE A BLAST OF VERY COLD AIR
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 550 PM MONDAY...SHRA ASSOC WITH COLD FRONT HOLDING TOGETHER
AS THEY APPROACH CSTL PLAIN. BASED ON RDR AND HIGH RES MDLS WILL
UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR A FEW HRS THIS EVENING WRN TIER AS SHRA
MOVE INTO THE REGION. MOST OF THE MDLS SHOWS SHRA DISSIPATING A
BIT AS THEY MOVE CLOSER TO CST SO WILL KEEP CHC POP THESE AREAS FOR
NOW. NO CHANGE TO TEMPS WITH AROUND 35 INLAND TO UPR 30S/AROUND 40
BEACHES.
PREV DISC...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND A DEVELOPING ANOMALOUSLY DEEP EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
MAINLY THIS EVENING. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE WRF-
NMM/NSSL- WRF AND HRRR INDICATE A WEAKENING BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN NC BETWEEN 00Z- 06Z THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND/NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT LESS THAN 0.10" IN MOST LOCATIONS.
COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID 30S AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A SURFACE REFLECTION. MEAN RH
500-1000 MB INCREASES BUT THERE IS A LOT LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
WHICH WILL TO ACT TO INHIBIT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE
LATEST MODELS NOT GENERATING MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL ISSUE
A DRY FORECAST ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE COULD
OCCUR. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPING FLOW
SUCH THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY:
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PLACED
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF U.S...BRING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE LACK
OF MOISTURE SOURCE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY OVER EASTERN NC
THROUGH THURSDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A CHILLY AND PARTLY
CLOUDY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH HIGHS TEMPS
STRUGGLING INTO THE 40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THICKNESSES QUITE LOW AND CONTINUING
WESTERLY BREEZE MAKES THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S FEEL
MORE LIKE THE TEENS.
THURSDAY...HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO RISE/DEAMPLIFY...BUT
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN DOMINATE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF.
850MB TEMPERATURE STILL REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE...THEREFORE LEADING
TO ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S UNDER SUNNY
SKIES. THURSDAY NIGHT, EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW 20S.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN FROM
CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LEADING TO RE-AMPLIFYING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF U.S. AND BRINGING EVEN
COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
BOTH THE 08/12Z GFS AND 08/00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO HAVE DISAGREEMENTS
WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER. ECMWF QUITE A BIT STRONGER
WITH FORCING...MOISTURE AND KEEPING MOST OF PRECIP LIQUID. WHILE GFS
LESS AMPLIFIED THOUGH...IT BRINGS THE THREAT OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
FOR E NC. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...IN TRACKING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN ON
THE BACK-SIDE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT COULD POTENTIALLY SUPPORT
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS OF
RA/SN MIX WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO MID 40S
COAST.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. THE
850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET BY SUNDAY TO AROUND -20C WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE 1220-1230M RANGE. THIS CAN BRING VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY...WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ABOVE FREEZING...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 30S.
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS THE LONG WAVE THOUGH
AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE...WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING BACK INTO THE
40S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 550 PM MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BAND OF SHRA WILL IMPACT TAF
SITES FIRST FEW HRS OF FCST WITH POSS SOME BRIEF SUB VFR POSS
ESPCLY AT PGV AND ISO. LATER TONIGHT DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES OFFSHORE
WITH VFR EXPECTED AS ANY CIGS WILL BE ABOVE 3K FEET. ANOTHER SHRT
WAVE WILL CROSS TUE BUT OVERALL MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED. MDLS SHOW GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE AROUND 5K FT SO
WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME CIGS IN THIS RANGE. W WINDS WILL GUST AT
TIMES TO 20 KT ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX ON FRIDAY WITH A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH FROM THE WEST. STILL QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME AS MODELS IT
IS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME HOW MUCH MOISTURE AND COLD AIR WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR RAIN OR SNOW. STAY TUNED.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 550 PM MONDAY...FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH SCA CONT CSTL WTRS
TONIGHT...SEAS REMAIN VERY LARGE IN SWELL N OF HAT.
PREV DISC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN AFFECT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND ALLIGATOR RIVER BEGINNING
LATE TUESDAY. CONTINUE ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. A NEW
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND FOR TUESDAY.
LARGE DANGEROUS SWELL CONTINUES OFF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COAST
AND THE WAVE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS WELL AS THEY ARE UNDERDONE
BY SEVERAL FEET. THIS SWELL SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOME LATE
THIS EVENING BUT THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
LATER TONIGHT ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AND THIS WILL
HALT ANY FURTHER DECREASE IN SEAS. BEHIND THE FRONT WESTERLY FLOW
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT HIGHEST SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND ALL WATERS TUESDAY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO GALE FORCE BUT NOT CONVINCED FREQUENCY WILL
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A GALE WARNING SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. LATE TUESDAY GUSTS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6 FEET WITH PERIODS
SHORTENING UP ON TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND
ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS AND
PAMLICO SOUND. THERE WILL BE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE. EXPECT NW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS AND 2 TO 4 FT. SEAS AND WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS ANOTHER SECONDARY COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...LINGERING VERY LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH
YESTERDAYS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE OUTER
BANKS THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE HIGH
TIDES THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING WILL LEAD TO OCEAN OVERWASH
AND BEACH EROSION ESPECIALLY ALONG HATTERAS ISLAND. PORTIONS OF
HIGHWAY 12 IN THE USUAL VULNERABLE LOCATIONS COULD BECOME WATER
COVERED AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING.
PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING/ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ104.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...RF/JME/BM
MARINE...RF/JME/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
406 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AND EXTENDED
PERIOD OF COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...
A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL SPREAD 100-150M
HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED PAIR
OF COLD FRONTS TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE BIGGEST FORECAST INTEREST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS THE BAND
OF SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE LEAD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. THE BAND
STRETCHING FROM THE TRIAD THROUGH CHARLOTTE IS FORECAST BY CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 21Z AND
03Z. WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S...THERE IS VERY LITTLE CAPE...IF ANY AT ALL. HOWEVER...AN AXIS OF
STEEP 7-7.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRAMATIC
COOLING UNDERWAY ALOFT HAS ADVECTED OVER CENTRAL NC...PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS. THIS COUPLED WITH THE (RELATIVE) WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY JUST IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE HRRR SHOWS THE BAND OF SHOWERS
STRENGTHENING A BIT WITH TIME AND EASTWARD EXTENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN A FAIRLY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WIND GUSTS OF 30-40MPH WITH THE SHOWERS
SEEMS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO PLAUSIBLE
WITHIN THE LINE GIVEN THE THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT
WITHOUT BETTER FORECASTS CAPE...PREFER TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF
THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS BEFORE ADDING THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.
A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST VA BY
MIDNIGHT AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LATE
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME OMEGA AND MOISTURE
IN THE -12C TO -18C LAYER FROM DANVILLE TO EMPORIA...SO IT SEEMS
LESS LIKELY THAT WE`LL SEE ANY PRECIP THAT CHANGES OVER TO SNOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT A FEW FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOWS 28-33.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...
THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL MAKE ITS WAY OVERHEAD ON
TUESDAY...WITH A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE TROUGH FORECAST TO SWING
ACROSS VA AND NORTHERN NC DURING THE AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT...ALONG WITH THE STRONG DCVA AND MOISTENING BETWEEN 5-10K
FEET(COINCIDENT WITH THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE)...MAY LEAD SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER....ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
DAY FROM ROXBORO TO ROANOKE RAPIDS. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE MUCH BETTER COVERAGE NORTH OF THE BORDER AND THE ECMWF IS
THE ONLY MODEL TO INDICATE ANY QPF IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID 40S EAST...BUT DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 20S WOULD PUSH WETBULB PROFILES COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID
20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM MONDAY...
COLD MID-LATE WEEK...AND EVEN COLDER --PERHAPS RECORD SO-- THIS
WEEKEND...WITH A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION (LATE FRI-
FRI NIGHT AND LATE MON-TUE).
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A STRONG WESTERN NOAM
RIDGE AND EASTERN NOAM TROUGH WILL UNDERGO A BRIEF RELAXATION LATE
IN THE WEEK...IN ADVANCE OF A POLAR VORTEX THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND...AND EFFECTIVELY RE-AMPLIFY THE
FLOW...THIS WEEKEND. A PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL THEN FLATTEN
THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE SUN-MON.
WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...SHEAR VORTICITY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGHS WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES MID-LATE WEEK...WITH EACH SUPPORTING AN AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION STREAKING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE LEAD
DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE A MORE LIMITED MOISTURE SUPPLY AND LITTLE LOW
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS ON THU...WHILE THE SECOND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW-
MID LEVEL WAA REGIME AND CONSEQUENTLY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SUPPORTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOST LIKELY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW...OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...CENTERED AROUND FRI EVENING.
A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL ACCOMPANY THE
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED POLAR VORTEX
SUPPRESSES THE NORTHERN STREAM/PROMOTES CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT THE SOUTHEASTWARD MAINTENANCE OF A 1040-1045 MB HIGH
FROM THE ARCTIC. WHILE THIS WOULD YIELD INITIALLY JUST NEAR RECORD
COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE
PACIFIC TROUGH AND AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WOULD
RAISE THE PROBABILITY OF STREAM INTERACTION...AND STORMINESS AND
APPALACHIAN COLD AIR DAMMING...MON-TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM MONDAY...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 20Z
AND 02Z...THEN TURN TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS AND A WIND GUST TO 30-35MPH IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
SHOWERS...THOUGH THE STRONGER GUSTS WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED AND ARE
NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF. AS THE SHOWERS EXIT THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE
THIS EVENING...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT
OVER SOUTHERN VA..WHICH MAY DRAW SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SOUTH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND CAUSE A FEW EXTRA SHOWERS OR
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH OF KRDU AND KRWI AFTER 09Z.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 9-12KT AND GUST TO AROUND 20KT ON
TUESDAY
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL COME FRIDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES
THE AREA.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...2
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
405 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE A BLAST OF VERY COLD AIR
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND A DEVELOPING ANOMALOUSLY DEEP EASTERN UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAINLY THIS EVENING. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS
THE WRF-NMM/NSSL-WRF AND HRRR INDICATE A WEAKENING BAND OF
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NC BETWEEN 00Z-06Z THIS EVENING
ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND/NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT LESS THAN 0.10" IN MOST LOCATIONS.
COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID 30S AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A SURFACE REFLECTION. MEAN RH
500-1000 MB INCREASES BUT THERE IS A LOT LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
WHICH WILL TO ACT TO INHIBIT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE
LATEST MODELS NOT GENERATING MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL ISSUE
A DRY FORECAST ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE COULD
OCCUR. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPING FLOW
SUCH THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY:
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PLACED
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF U.S...BRING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE LACK
OF MOISTURE SOURCE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY OVER EASTERN NC
THROUGH THURSDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A CHILLY AND PARTLY
CLOUDY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH HIGHS TEMPS
STRUGGLING INTO THE 40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THICKNESSES QUITE LOW AND CONTINUING
WESTERLY BREEZE MAKES THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S FEEL
MORE LIKE THE TEENS.
THURSDAY...HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO RISE/DEAMPLIFY...BUT
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN DOMINATE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF.
850MB TEMPERATURE STILL REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE...THEREFORE LEADING
TO ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S UNDER SUNNY
SKIES. THURSDAY NIGHT, EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW 20S.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN FROM
CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LEADING TO RE-AMPLIFYING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF U.S. AND BRINGING EVEN
COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
BOTH THE 08/12Z GFS AND 08/00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO HAVE DISAGREEMENTS
WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER. ECMWF QUITE A BIT STRONGER
WITH FORCING...MOISTURE AND KEEPING MOST OF PRECIP LIQUID. WHILE GFS
LESS AMPLIFIED THOUGH...IT BRINGS THE THREAT OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
FOR E NC. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...IN TRACKING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN ON
THE BACK-SIDE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT COULD POTENTIALLY SUPPORT
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS OF
RA/SN MIX WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO MID 40S
COAST.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. THE
850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET BY SUNDAY TO AROUND -20C WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE 1220-1230M RANGE. THIS CAN BRING VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY...WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ABOVE FREEZING...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 30S.
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS THE LONG WAVE THOUGH
AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE...WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING BACK INTO THE
40S.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS/WIND AND CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS 1Z-6Z THEN FLOW SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND
DRIER/COLDER AIR SWEEPS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL TO MUCH DRY LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW TO
OVERCOME TUESDAY AS THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AFFECTS THE AREA
SO EXPECTING DRY WEATHER WITH ANY CLOUD BASES TO BE AT VFR
LEVELS. WINDS WILL GUST AT TIMES TO 20 KT ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX ON FRIDAY WITH A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH FROM THE WEST. STILL QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME AS MODELS IT
IS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME HOW MUCH MOISTURE AND COLD AIR WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR RAIN OR SNOW. STAY TUNED.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN AFFECT
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND ALLIGATOR RIVER
BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY. CONTINUE ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS. A NEW ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND FOR
TUESDAY.
LARGE DANGEROUS SWELL CONTINUES OFF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COAST
AND THE WAVE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS WELL AS THEY ARE UNDERDONE
BY SEVERAL FEET. THIS SWELL SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOME LATE
THIS EVENING BUT THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
LATER TONIGHT ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AND THIS WILL
HALT ANY FURTHER DECREASE IN SEAS. BEHIND THE FRONT WESTERLY FLOW
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT HIGHEST SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND ALL WATERS TUESDAY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO GALE FORCE BUT NOT CONVINCED FREQUENCY WILL
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A GALE WARNING SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. LATE TUESDAY GUSTS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6 FEET WITH PERIODS
SHORTENING UP ON TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND
ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS AND
PAMLICO SOUND. THERE WILL BE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE. EXPECT NW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS AND 2 TO 4 FT. SEAS AND WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS ANOTHER SECONDARY COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...LINGERING VERY LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH
YESTERDAYS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE OUTER
BANKS THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE HIGH
TIDES THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING WILL LEAD TO OCEAN OVERWASH
AND BEACH EROSION ESPECIALLY ALONG HATTERAS ISLAND. PORTIONS OF
HIGHWAY 12 IN THE USUAL VULNERABLE LOCATIONS COULD BECOME WATER
COVERED AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING.
PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING/ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ103-
104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...JME/BM
MARINE...JME/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
320 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AND EXTENDED
PERIOD OF COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...
A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL SPREAD 100-150M
HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED PAIR
OF COLD FRONTS TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE BIGGEST FORECAST INTEREST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS THE BAND
OF SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE LEAD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. THE BAND
STRETCHING FROM THE TRIAD THROUGH CHARLOTTE IS FORECAST BY CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 21Z AND
03Z. WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S...THERE IS VERY LITTLE CAPE...IF ANY AT ALL. HOWEVER...AN AXIS OF
STEEP 7-7.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRAMATIC
COOLING UNDERWAY ALOFT HAS ADVECTED OVER CENTRAL NC...PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS. THIS COUPLED WITH THE (RELATIVE) WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY JUST IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE HRRR SHOWS THE BAND OF SHOWERS
STRENGTHENING A BIT WITH TIME AND EASTWARD EXTENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN A FAIRLY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WIND GUSTS OF 30-40MPH WITH THE SHOWERS
SEEMS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO PLAUSIBLE
WITHIN THE LINE GIVEN THE THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT
WITHOUT BETTER FORECASTS CAPE...PREFER TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF
THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS BEFORE ADDING THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.
A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST VA BY
MIDNIGHT AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LATE
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME OMEGA AND MOISTURE
IN THE -12C TO -18C LAYER FROM DANVILLE TO EMPORIA...SO IT SEEMS
LESS LIKELY THAT WE`LL SEE ANY PRECIP THAT CHANGES OVER TO SNOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT A FEW FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOWS 28-33.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...
THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL MAKE ITS WAY OVERHEAD ON
TUESDAY...WITH A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE TROUGH FORECAST TO SWING
ACROSS VA AND NORTHERN NC DURING THE AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT...ALONG WITH THE STRONG DCVA AND MOISTENING BETWEEN 5-10K
FEET(COINCIDENT WITH THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE)...MAY LEAD SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER....ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
DAY FROM ROXBORO TO ROANOKE RAPIDS. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE MUCH BETTER COVERAGE NORTH OF THE BORDER AND THE ECMWF IS
THE ONLY MODEL TO INDICATE ANY QPF IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID 40S EAST...BUT DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 20S WOULD PUSH WETBULB PROFILES COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID
20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...
...A SECONDARY COLDER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DESCEND SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
CORE OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER
TROUGH(H5ANOMALIES 2 TO 4 SD BELOW NORMAL)IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN US WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY. H8 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT ~15C WITH LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES 1240-1245M WEDNESDAY NIGHT...60 TO 70 METERS BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH
TO UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 SOUTH. LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY:
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE BRIEFLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE FRIDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT SUCCESSION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING OUT OF
CANADA...ANCHORED BY A STRONG VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION...LEADS TO
RENEWED AMPLIFICATION OF THE COLD EASTERN US TROUGH WITH EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC AIR DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME...ONE FEATURE WE WILL NEED TO BE MONITOR
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE EVENTUAL TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE
DIVING DOWN THE BACK-SIDE OF THE TROUGH THAT COULD POTENTIALLY
SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
BOTH THE EC AND GFS INDICATE THAT THE EARLIER MID-WEEK ARCTIC
INTRUSION WILL PALE IN COMPARISON TO THE WEEKEND INTRUSION WITH H8
PROGGED TO BE IN THE -20TO -25C WITH LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES TANKING
TO 1210-1215M. IF THESE INCREDIBLY COLD THICKNESSES VERIFY...HIGHS
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM MONDAY...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 20Z
AND 02Z...THEN TURN TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS AND A WIND GUST TO 30-35MPH IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
SHOWERS...THOUGH THE STRONGER GUSTS WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED AND ARE
NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF. AS THE SHOWERS EXIT THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE
THIS EVENING...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT
OVER SOUTHERN VA..WHICH MAY DRAW SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SOUTH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND CAUSE A FEW EXTRA SHOWERS OR
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH OF KRDU AND KRWI AFTER 09Z.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 9-12KT AND GUST TO AROUND 20KT ON
TUESDAY
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL COME FRIDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES
THE AREA.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
100 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AND EXTENDED
PERIOD OF COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM MONDAY...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST IS GIVING WAY TO A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH
THE MIDWEST. WITH 100-150M HEIGHT FALLS APPROACHING OUR REGION...THE
BIGGEST FORECAST INTEREST TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
A BAND OF SHOWERS AS A LEAD FRONTAL ZONE CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SHOW SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT AND/OR A PREFRONTAL TROUGH SITTING IN THE LEE OF THE
MOUNTAINS SOMETIME AROUND 20Z...AND THEN PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z. WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S...MODELS BARELY SHOW ANY MLCAPE AT ALL.
HOWEVER...AN AXIS OF STEEP 7-7.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CENTERED
JUST UPSTREAM OVER UPSTATE SC COMBINED WITH A WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK INSTABILITY TOP DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY JUST IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE HRRR SHOWS THE BAND OF SHOWERS
STRENGTHENING A BIT WITH TIME AND EASTWARD EXTENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN A FAIRLY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WIND GUSTS OF 30-40MPH WITH THE SHOWERS
SEEMS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO PLAUSIBLE
WITHIN THE LINE GIVEN THE THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT
WITHOUT BETTER FORECASTS CAPE...PREFER TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF
THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS BEFORE ADDING THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. -22
TONIGHT...
AS THE LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND TRACKS OVER
VA THEN OFFSHORE THIS EVENING... THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
TONIGHT. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT.
THIS IS LARGELY A DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER... SEVERAL MODELS
INCLUDING SOME OF THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS SHOW SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE MAY GET WRUNG OUT AS SNOW SHOWERS OR PATCHY FLURRIES LATE
TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER AND NORTHEAST OF RALEIGH. AT
THE CURRENT TIME... IT APPEARS THAT A QUICK DUSTING OR TRACE AMOUNTS
WOULD BE THE WORST CASE SCENARIO FOR AREAS AROUND ROXBORO TO ROCKY
MOUNT TO THE VA BORDER. OTHERWISE... THE COLD DRY ADVECTION WILL
QUICKLY END THE SHOWER THREAT. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 10-15
MPH. LOWS WITH CAA SHOULD DIP INTO THE 25-30 RANGE NW... AND LOWER
TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE BY TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 227 AM MONDAY...
BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE VERY COLD MID/UPPER TROUGH DIVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE TROUGH AXIS IS
FORECAST TO PIVOT THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT AND AFTERNOON STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH MOISTURE ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER... AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE... THE AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL NOT SEE MEASURABLE OR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S NW... TO NEAR 50 SE.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD WITH DIMINISHING NW
WINDS. LOWS GENERALLY 20-25 NW TO 25-28 SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...
...A SECONDARY COLDER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DESCEND SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
CORE OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER
TROUGH(H5ANOMALIES 2 TO 4 SD BELOW NORMAL)IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN US WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY. H8 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT ~15C WITH LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES 1240-1245M WEDNESDAY NIGHT...60 TO 70 METERS BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH
TO UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 SOUTH. LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY:
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE BRIEFLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE FRIDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT SUCCESSION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING OUT OF
CANADA...ANCHORED BY A STRONG VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION...LEADS TO
RENEWED AMPLIFICATION OF THE COLD EASTERN US TROUGH WITH EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC AIR DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME...ONE FEATURE WE WILL NEED TO BE MONITOR
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE EVENTUAL TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE
DIVING DOWN THE BACK-SIDE OF THE TROUGH THAT COULD POTENTIALLY
SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
BOTH THE EC AND GFS INDICATE THAT THE EARLIER MID-WEEK ARCTIC
INTRUSION WILL PALE IN COMPARISON TO THE WEEKEND INTRUSION WITH H8
PROGGED TO BE IN THE -20TO -25C WITH LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES TANKING
TO 1210-1215M. IF THESE INCREDIBLY COLD THICKNESSES VERIFY...HIGHS
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM MONDAY...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 20Z
AND 02Z...THEN TURN TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS AND A WIND GUST TO 30-35MPH IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
SHOWERS...THOUGH THE STRONGER GUSTS WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED AND ARE
NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF. AS THE SHOWERS EXIT THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE
THIS EVENING...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT
OVER SOUTHERN VA..WHICH MAY DRAW SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SOUTH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND CAUSE A FEW EXTRA SHOWERS OR
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH OF KRDU AND KRWI AFTER 09Z.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 9-12KT AND GUST TO AROUND 20KT ON
TUESDAY
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL COME FRIDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES
THE AREA.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT/SMITH
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1244 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
EVEN WITH EXPANDING BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER INCREASED/EXTENDED POPS
WITH SHSN THROUGH THE VALLEY REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
SHSN/SQUALLS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITHIN NARROW N-S ORIENTED 850MB
COLD POOL FROM VALLEY INTO E SD WITHIN ENHANCED ZONE OF DENDRITIC
LAYER RH. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SNOW SHOWERS
COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO CAUSE VISIBILITY ISSUES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
ALTHOUGH WEB CAMS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD STILL GETTING STREAMER SHSN
WHICH LIMIT VSBY. WAITING TO SEE IF WINDS PICK BACK UP BUT FOR NOW
WILL LET ADVISORY RIDE AND REVISIT LATER THIS AM. ADJUSTED POPS A
BIT BUT NO BIG CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
MANY OBS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STILL SHOWING 1 SM OR LESS VIS...AND
WEB CAMS IN SOME SPOTS CONTINUE TO LOOK TO HAVE POOR CONDITIONS.
THE RADAR SHOWS THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY
WEAKEN...BUT THEY WILL CONTINUE A WHILE LONGER AND WITH WINDS
STILL AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40...BLOWING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VIS ARE NOT
DOWN TO 1/4SM SO WILL LET THE BLIZZARD WARNING GO BUT HAVE
EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY
COUNTIES. THE WEST HAS SEEN WINDS COME DOWN SO LET THE WIND
ADVISORY GO. THE EAST HAS THE SHELTER OF THE TREES SO VIS IS NOT
AS BAD AND LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE IN THAT AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
SNOW SHOWERS...WIND...AND WHAT TO DO WITH HEADLINES WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST HEADACHE FOR THE SHORT TERM.
STREAKS OF SNOW CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH
POOR VISIBILITY UNDER THE HEAVIER BANDS. SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN VALLEY HAS BEEN GOING ON FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND
THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE A SHARP DECREASE IN SNOW ACTIVITY BY 12Z.
HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST TO GET RID OF THE PRECIP ALL
NIGHT. WITH WINDS AND PERIODIC LOW VIS...WILL KEEP WINTER HEADLINES
GOING THROUGH 12Z AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK LATER THIS MORNING TO SEE
IF THEY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR NOT.
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE STRONG THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS ABOVE 36
KTS STILL GOING AT FARGO AND GRAND FORKS. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE 45 KTS AT 925MB WITH EVEN HIGHER SPEEDS AT 850MB. MIXING
CONTINUES TO BE GOOD FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT...AROUND 900 TO 875MB.
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE TODAY AS THE SFC LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING.
THINK WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING AND EVEN INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH HIGHER WIND SPEEDS...THINK THAT ONCE
SNOW STOPS ACTIVELY FALLING THE VISIBILITY SITUATION WILL IMPROVE.
THUS...AS LONG AS SNOW SHOWERS STOP AS EXPECTED IT WILL MAINLY BE
A MATTER OF CHANGING OVER FROM WINTER HEADLINES TO WIND ADVISORY
AT 12Z. WILL MONITOR THE RADAR...OBS AND WEB CAMS DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS TO DETERMINE HOW TO ADJUST HEADLINES WHEN THE TIME
COMES BUT WILL KEEP THEM AS THEY ARE FOR NOW.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE QUIET AS NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLDER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING LATELY...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WHERE THEY WILL
GET THE BRUNT OF THE COLDER AIR MASS. WITH TEMPS DIPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO 10 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST...AND SOME WINDS
HANGING ON IN THAT AREA...WIND CHILLS COULD GET DOWN TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WITH ONGOING CURRENT HEADLINES WILL WAIT TO
PUT OUT ANYTHING ADDITIONAL FOR TOMORROW MORNING. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ZERO IN THE NORTHEAST BUT ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES WARMER IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE THICKNESS VALUES WILL BE
HIGHER.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST. A JET STREAK COMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING SOME LIFT
AND CREATE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER MAINLY OUR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR
WEDNESDAY. THINK THAT THE SNOW IS LESS LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE JET STREAK WILL HAVE MOVED OFF BY THEN SO WENT WITH THE
LOWER BLENDED POPS INSTEAD OF THE VERY WET NAM. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS IN THE SOUTHWEST.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER AIR PATTERN WAS
OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE EASTERN STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST. PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING TO NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS WAS A FASTER SOLUTION THEN
THE ECMWF. ALSO THE GFS WAS TRENDING FASTER AND THE ECMWF WAS
TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL BLEND THE TWO
MODELS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE DECREASED A DEGREE OR SO FOR THU. HIGHS WERE
DECREASED TWO TO FOUR DEGREES ON FRI...DECREASED FIVE TO SIX
DEGREES ON SAT AND INCREASED ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
HIGHLY VARIABLE VSBYS WITH SNOW SQUALLS AND BLSN IMPACTING GFK
AND FAR WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30KTS...LIGHTER WINDS AT BJI...DVL AND
TVF WITH -SN THAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. BLSN TO
TAPPER OFF IN THE VALLEY EARLY EVENING...GUIDANCE SCT OUT MVFR
DECK THIS EVENING ALSO...LESS CONFIDENCE IN THIS BUT EXPECTING
CIGS TO SCT OR CLEAR OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ007-
008-016-027-029-030-039-053-054.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ001>005-007-008-013>015-022-027-029-030-040.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1116 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SNOW SHOWERS
COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO CAUSE VISIBILITY ISSUES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
ALTHOUGH WEB CAMS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD STILL GETTING STREAMER SHSN
WHICH LIMIT VSBY. WAITING TO SEE IF WINDS PICK BACK UP BUT FOR NOW
WILL LET ADVISORY RIDE AND REVISIT LATER THIS AM. ADJUSTED POPS A
BIT BUT NO BIG CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
MANY OBS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STILL SHOWING 1 SM OR LESS VIS...AND
WEB CAMS IN SOME SPOTS CONTINUE TO LOOK TO HAVE POOR CONDITIONS.
THE RADAR SHOWS THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY
WEAKEN...BUT THEY WILL CONTINUE A WHILE LONGER AND WITH WINDS
STILL AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40...BLOWING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VIS ARE NOT
DOWN TO 1/4SM SO WILL LET THE BLIZZARD WARNING GO BUT HAVE
EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY
COUNTIES. THE WEST HAS SEEN WINDS COME DOWN SO LET THE WIND
ADVISORY GO. THE EAST HAS THE SHELTER OF THE TREES SO VIS IS NOT
AS BAD AND LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE IN THAT AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
SNOW SHOWERS...WIND...AND WHAT TO DO WITH HEADLINES WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST HEADACHE FOR THE SHORT TERM.
STREAKS OF SNOW CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH
POOR VISIBILITY UNDER THE HEAVIER BANDS. SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN VALLEY HAS BEEN GOING ON FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND
THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE A SHARP DECREASE IN SNOW ACTIVITY BY 12Z.
HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST TO GET RID OF THE PRECIP ALL
NIGHT. WITH WINDS AND PERIODIC LOW VIS...WILL KEEP WINTER HEADLINES
GOING THROUGH 12Z AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK LATER THIS MORNING TO SEE
IF THEY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR NOT.
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE STRONG THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS ABOVE 36
KTS STILL GOING AT FARGO AND GRAND FORKS. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE 45 KTS AT 925MB WITH EVEN HIGHER SPEEDS AT 850MB. MIXING
CONTINUES TO BE GOOD FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT...AROUND 900 TO 875MB.
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE TODAY AS THE SFC LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING.
THINK WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING AND EVEN INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH HIGHER WIND SPEEDS...THINK THAT ONCE
SNOW STOPS ACTIVELY FALLING THE VISIBILITY SITUATION WILL IMPROVE.
THUS...AS LONG AS SNOW SHOWERS STOP AS EXPECTED IT WILL MAINLY BE
A MATTER OF CHANGING OVER FROM WINTER HEADLINES TO WIND ADVISORY
AT 12Z. WILL MONITOR THE RADAR...OBS AND WEB CAMS DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS TO DETERMINE HOW TO ADJUST HEADLINES WHEN THE TIME
COMES BUT WILL KEEP THEM AS THEY ARE FOR NOW.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE QUIET AS NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLDER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING LATELY...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WHERE THEY WILL
GET THE BRUNT OF THE COLDER AIR MASS. WITH TEMPS DIPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO 10 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST...AND SOME WINDS
HANGING ON IN THAT AREA...WIND CHILLS COULD GET DOWN TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WITH ONGOING CURRENT HEADLINES WILL WAIT TO
PUT OUT ANYTHING ADDITIONAL FOR TOMORROW MORNING. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ZERO IN THE NORTHEAST BUT ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES WARMER IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE THICKNESS VALUES WILL BE
HIGHER.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST. A JET STREAK COMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING SOME LIFT
AND CREATE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER MAINLY OUR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR
WEDNESDAY. THINK THAT THE SNOW IS LESS LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE JET STREAK WILL HAVE MOVED OFF BY THEN SO WENT WITH THE
LOWER BLENDED POPS INSTEAD OF THE VERY WET NAM. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS IN THE SOUTHWEST.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER AIR PATTERN WAS
OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE EASTERN STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST. PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING TO NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS WAS A FASTER SOLUTION THEN
THE ECMWF. ALSO THE GFS WAS TRENDING FASTER AND THE ECMWF WAS
TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL BLEND THE TWO
MODELS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE DECREASED A DEGREE OR SO FOR THU. HIGHS WERE
DECREASED TWO TO FOUR DEGREES ON FRI...DECREASED FIVE TO SIX
DEGREES ON SAT AND INCREASED ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016
VIS CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY BLOWING SNOW. CURRENTLY WORST
CONDITIONS ARE AT KFAR...WITH 2-5SM AT KGFK AND KBJI. VIS HAVE
COME UP TO VFR AT KDVL...ALTHOUGH CIGS ARE STILL MVFR. MVFR CIGS
AND VIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING...WITH SOME VIS
AROUND OR BELOW 1SM AT TIMES MAINLY AROUND KFAR. THINK THAT THE
BLOWING SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY DECREASE...WITH VIS BACK UP AND MVFR
CIGS BY LATE MORNING. THINK THAT WE SHOULD SEE SOME VFR CONDITIONS
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST ABOVE
30 KTS AT KGFK AND KFAR...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ007-
008-016-027-029-030-039-053-054.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ001>005-007-008-013>015-022-027-029-030-040.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NORMAN OK
234 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST
FOCUS.
CURRENTLY... DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA... WHERE MESONET AND ASOS OBS HAVE CONSISTENTLY REPORTED
DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO ZERO AND NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS
IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS. COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY... 40 TO 50 KT...
N/NW WINDS... SEVERAL HOT SPOTS CONTINUE TO POP UP ON 3.9 IR
INDICATING ACTIVE FIRE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. AS AN ASIDE...
IMPRESSED WITH MESO GUIDANCE... SPECIFICALLY THE HRRR AND
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR/S HANDLING OF DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN
TEMPS LATE THIS MORNING... WAS NOT ANTICIPATING DEW POINTS TO REACH
ZERO LET ALONE NEGATIVE VALUES OUT WEST. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 6 PM...WHERE CONDITIONS POSE THE GREATEST
CONCERN. HOWEVER... AS INDICATED BY 3.9 IR ACTIVITY TODAY... FIRES
REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. MANY FIRES ARE
ACCIDENTAL... PLEASE USE GOOD JUDGMENT... REFRAIN FROM PERFORMING
ACTIVITIES NEAR OR OVER GRASS THAT COULD EASILY SPARK A FIRE...
SUCH AS WELDING... DRAGGING CHAINS... USING POWER TOOLS... OR
PARKING CARS ON GRASS. ALSO... KEEP YOUR BUTTS IN YOUR CAR... DO
NOT THROW CIGARETTE BUTTS OUT YOUR WINDOW.
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY... N/NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH
SUNSET... REMAINING BREEZY THROUGH THE EVENING TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND THE
EASTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO WRAP EASTWARD ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY.
W/NW WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES S/SE ALONG THE LLANO ESTACADO. EXPECT GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY... INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
CONFIDENCE IN INCREASED DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
TOWARDS THE CAPROCK WILL RESULT IN INCREASED TEMPS FROM THE
PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. HIGHS COULD EASILY
REACH THE LOWER 70S IN NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND... MILD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS A SFC TROUGH SLIDES S/SE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTLE H500 SHORT WAVE. WITH THE SHIFTING OF THE
UPPER RIDGE TOWARDS THE ROCKIES INTO SATURDAY... AN AREA OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE UPPER MISSOURI VALLEY
TOWARD THE OZARKS... ALLOWING COOLER TEMPS TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY... AS S/SW WINDS
GRADUALLY INCREASE. PRESENTLY... EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH
AND HIGHS IN THE 50S. THEREFORE... WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON NEXT
WEEKEND FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
JTK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 29 54 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 30 60 32 66 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 30 63 34 67 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 27 57 27 69 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 27 49 26 55 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 32 55 33 59 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005>008-010>013-
015>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ021-022-
033>038-044.
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ086-089-090.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
954 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016
UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS
.DISCUSSION...LEAVING THE CURRENT FORECAST AS-IS THIS MORNING.
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IS IN SWING OVER THE REGION WITH SOME
CASCADE AND SOUTH COAST LOCATIONS GUSTING FROM THE EAST TO AROUND
30 MPH. CURRY COUNTY COASTAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 70S.
LATEST HRRR FORECASTS INDICATE A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD TAKE
OVER ON THE SOUTH COAST BEACHES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS SO DO
NOT ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES THERE WILL GET TO MUCH HIGHER.
MORNING SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED THE UMPQUA...ILLINOIS AND SCOTT
VALLEYS IN A LOW STRATUS WITH SOME FOG BEING REPORTED BUT NOT
WIDESPREAD. DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE LOW CLOUDS ARE TOO THICK SO WE
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING BY EARLY AFTERNOON AREA-
WIDE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH TO 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY...WITH MORE OF THE SAME THROUGH MID WEEK. STAVISH
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 08/18Z TAF CYCLE...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE
AN AVIATION HAZARD AT WEST SIDE TERMINALS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
SURFACE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND WINDS ABOUT 1500 FEET OFF THE GROUND
ARE SOUTHEASTERLY AT 30-40KT. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT
ROSEBURG FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT SHOULD CLEAR TO VFR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. VFR WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
THE UMPQUA VALLEY AND PERHAPS THE SCOTT, ILLINOIS AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE ROGUE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE VFR. SPILDE
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 1000 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016...STEEP SEAS
DOMINATED BY A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL BUILD INTO THE WATERS
TODAY. A THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE NORTH AND PUSH
INLAND BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT BUT BECOME
SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS BEYOND 130W. A WEAK
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY...THEN ANOTHER
STRONGER FRONT WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS.
A FRONT MAY NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE
SHOWING THIS FRONT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE WATERS
BUT THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS AND SEAS. A
STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND STEEP SEAS. ANOTHER STEEP LONG
PERIOD SWELL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. SPILDE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016/ THE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW A FIVE WAVE PATTERN
AROUND THE GLOBE WITH MODERATE AMPLITUDES. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE BUT LONGITUDINAL FLOW WILL INCREASE...CREATING A MORE
BLOCKY PATTERN AROUND THE GLOBE. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE...BUT WILL SLOW DOWN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A
STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA.
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST...AMPLIFYING THROUGH TODAY.
IT WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE MEDFORD CWA LATER THIS MORNING. DRY
CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW...AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND OVER THE RIDGES. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS...WHERE WARM AIR ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN
INVERSIONS...WHICH WILL ALLOW NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO DEVELOP IN SOME LOCATIONS. SINCE THIS IS LATE IN THE
SEASON FOR SUCH PATTERNS...THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BURN OFF
IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
USUALLY AIR STAGNATION IS A CONCERN IN A PATTERN LIKE THIS...BUT
GIVEN THE EXPECTED AFTERNOON MIXING...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST...AND WEAK SHORT WAVES
EJECTING FROM THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE OVER THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. TYPICALLY THE FIRST SHORT WAVE AFTER A RIDGE HAS
LITTLE EFFECT OTHER THAN HERALDING THE END OF OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...AND THESE LOOK TOO WEAK TO DO MUCH OF ANYTHING. THE SHORT
WAVES THAT FOLLOW WILL ALSO BE WEAK AND MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE
DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE 08/00Z GFS SOLUTION
LIMITS PRECIPITATION TO THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN
A WEAK FRONT BRINGS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE COAST.
MEANWHILE THE 08/00Z EC SOLUTION KEEPS IT DRY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
EXCEPT FOR SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEAR THE COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IT THEN PUSHES A WETTER COLD FRONT ONSHORE FRIDAY MORNING.
TYPICALLY THE MODELS TEND TO BREAK DOWN A STRONG RIDGE TOO
QUICKLY...AND KEEP PUSHING THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION BACK WITH
EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN. THAT APPEARS TO BE THE CASE HERE...BUT THE
DRY EVENT HAS TO END AT SOME POINT. SO...WILL BRING SOME CHANCE
POPS ONSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
$$
MAS/MTS/JRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
918 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...LEAVING THE CURRENT FORECAST AS-IS THIS MORNING.
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IS IN SWING OVER THE REGION WITH SOME
CASCADE AND SOUTH COAST LOCATIONS GUSTING FROM THE EAST TO AROUND
30 MPH. CURRY COUNTY COASTAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 70S.
LATEST HRRR FORECASTS INDICATE A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD TAKE
OVER ON THE SOUTH COAST BEACHES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS SO DO
NOT ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES THERE WILL GET TO MUCH HIGHER.
MORNING SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED THE UMPQUA...ILLINOIS AND SCOTT
VALLEYS IN A LOW STRATUS WITH SOME FOG BEING REPORTED BUT NOT
WIDESPREAD. DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE LOW CLOUDS ARE TOO THICK SO WE
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING BY EARLY AFTERNOON AREA-
WIDE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH TO 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY...WITH MORE OF THE SAME THROUGH MID WEEK. STAVISH
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 08/12Z TAF CYCLE...IN DOUGLAS COUNTY LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIFT LATE THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE VFR CONTINUES
UNDER CLEAR SKY. PATCHY SHALLOW FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE ILLINOIS
VALLEY AND MOSTLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ROGUE VALLEY. AT KMFR
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR...HOWEVER THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG AROUND 15Z MONDAY BUT GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
CONTINUED VFR SO HAVE KEPT FOG OUT OF KMFR TAF FOR NOW. /SVEN
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 350 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016...A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH ALONG THE COAST IS BRINGING LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. LIGHT
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTH THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS BEYOND 130W. STEEP
SEAS DOMINATED BY LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL BUILD INTO THE
WATERS MONDAY AS A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL OF AROUND 10 FEET AT 16
SECONDS BUILDS INTO THE WATERS. A FRONT MAY NEAR THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY THEN MOVE INTO THE WATERS THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VARIABILITY WITH THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM THOUGH AND CONFIDENCE
IS LOW TO MODERATE ON DETAILS FOR WAVE AND WIND FORECASTS DURING
THIS PERIOD. OVERALL, EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SEAS LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STEEP SEAS DURING THIS PERIOD
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. ANOTHER
STEEP LONG PERIOD SWELL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. /SVEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016/ THE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW A FIVE WAVE PATTERN
AROUND THE GLOBE WITH MODERATE AMPLITUDES. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE BUT LONGITUDINAL FLOW WILL INCREASE...CREATING A MORE
BLOCKY PATTERN AROUND THE GLOBE. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE...BUT WILL SLOW DOWN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A
STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA.
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST...AMPLIFYING THROUGH TODAY.
IT WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE MEDFORD CWA LATER THIS MORNING. DRY
CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW...AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND OVER THE RIDGES. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS...WHERE WARM AIR ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN
INVERSIONS...WHICH WILL ALLOW NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO DEVELOP IN SOME LOCATIONS. SINCE THIS IS LATE IN THE
SEASON FOR SUCH PATTERNS...THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BURN OFF
IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
USUALLY AIR STAGNATION IS A CONCERN IN A PATTERN LIKE THIS...BUT
GIVEN THE EXPECTED AFTERNOON MIXING...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST...AND WEAK SHORT WAVES
EJECTING FROM THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE OVER THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. TYPICALLY THE FIRST SHORT WAVE AFTER A RIDGE HAS
LITTLE EFFECT OTHER THAN HERALDING THE END OF OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...AND THESE LOOK TOO WEAK TO DO MUCH OF ANYTHING. THE SHORT
WAVES THAT FOLLOW WILL ALSO BE WEAK AND MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE
DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE 08/00Z GFS SOLUTION
LIMITS PRECIPITATION TO THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN
A WEAK FRONT BRINGS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE COAST.
MEANWHILE THE 08/00Z EC SOLUTION KEEPS IT DRY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
EXCEPT FOR SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEAR THE COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IT THEN PUSHES A WETTER COLD FRONT ONSHORE FRIDAY MORNING.
TYPICALLY THE MODELS TEND TO BREAK DOWN A STRONG RIDGE TOO
QUICKLY...AND KEEP PUSHING THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION BACK WITH
EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN. THAT APPEARS TO BE THE CASE HERE...BUT THE
DRY EVENT HAS TO END AT SOME POINT. SO...WILL BRING SOME CHANCE
POPS ONSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR ORZ021.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
$$