Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 02/07/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EUREKA CA
330 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...DESPITE LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...HIGH CLOUDS
ARE ALREADY STARTING TO APPROACH THE NORTH COAST ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THUS TODAY WILL SEE MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDINESS
IN THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONT REACHES THE COAST. RAINFALL
SHOULD BEGIN FALLING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTH COAST
BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES. (AND EVEN LESS
FARTHER INLAND). SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY HIGH BUT AGAIN...
GIVEN THE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF QPF ONLY AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION
SHOULD BE EXPECTED AND LIKELY WELL ABOVE 5000 FT. ON THE HEELS OF
THE FRONT IS SOME RAPID RIDGING ALOFT THUS LITTLE TO NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BE STRONG AND
MAY LAST THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY AND
RELATIVELY WARM WEATHER. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND WEAKLY
OFFSHORE SO COASTAL WEATHER SHOULD ALSO SEE A FEW DAYS OF SUNSHINE
AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S BY NEXT WEEK. TOWARD THURSDAY...THE
EUROPEAN MODEL IS INDICATING ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTH
COAST...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION RAIN FREE UNTIL FRIDAY.
HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE DURING THIS PERIOD TO
REFLECT THE UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION...LOW CEILINGS HAD IMPACTED AIRFIELDS ACROSS INTERIOR
VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF HAZE ALONG THE COAST. THE
CEILINGS WILL ERODE BY LATER THIS MORNING MAKING FOR MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD BRING LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH
OF CAPE MENDOCINO. EXPECT CEILINGS TO FALL TO MVFR WITH PERIODIC IFR
AT KCEC AND KACV WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE WE CAN EXPECT IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH ANOTHER VFR DAY IN STORE. KML
&&
.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES OVER THE REGION.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD SUFFICE WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT
POSSIBLE MOSTLY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING
GENERALLY MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST HELPING TO KEEP THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXED. THE WESTERLY SWELL WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE SEA STATE SUBSIDING BELOW 10 FT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A NEW SWELL WILL CAUSE THE SEA STATE TO BUILD
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. KML
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
PZZ450-455-470-475.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
320 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A little light rain across the northwest corner of the state this
evening...otherwise dry and warm conditions expected through at
least the middle of next week. Daytime highs well above normal
early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Clear skies over the CWA this morning with an upper level ridge
axis now over the west coast. Clear skies and relatively light
winds have allowed light fog to form in the valley this morning
mainly in the San Joaquin valley. With lack of significant
rainfall the last few days...widespread dense fog is not likely
today. The tail end of a weak frontal band now approaching the
coast is expected to drag across the north state this evening.
Although cloud cover will increase today in advance of this
system...a warmer airmass will allow for a little warmer
temperatures this afternoon compared to Thursday. The front is
expected to weaken as it moves inland this evening but may hold
together well enough to bring a little light rain across western
Shasta and Tehama counties. Upper ridge rebuilds on Saturday
bringing return to fair skies with daytime temperatures warming to
about 6 to 10 degrees above normal. Even more warming is expected
on Sunday and Monday as the upper ridge amplifies over the west
coast. Both Sunday and Monday will see daytime highs in the upper
60s to lower 70s in the central valley or from 10 to 15 degrees
above normal for early February. At this time...Monday looks to be
the warmest day with daytime highs pushing up close to record
values especially in the northern San Joaquin valley.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)
The axis of the West Coast ridge is forecast to have shifted Ewd and
inland from B.C. into the Great Basin during the EFP. The NAEFS and
GEFS shift the 30+ year return interval in mid-level heights and
primarily in 700-850 mbs temps Ewd and then SEwd away from our CWA
and gradually return the intervals to normal through next week. Thus
a gradual cooling trend is expected through the EFP with Tue being
the warmest day in the EFP period...with some record max temps still
possible at SAC and SCK. Max temp anomalies will drop from 10 to
20 degrees above normal in our CWA on Tue to just a few degrees
above normal by Fri.
N to NEly pressure gradients will gradually relax during the period
and Nly/katabatic winds will transition to Sly...and the potential
for patchy fog in the Srn portion of the CWA will return.
Model differences near the end of the EFP especially late Thu/Fri
lower confidence in timing and any precip chances for our CWA. Have
to believe the strength of the ridge will prevail with an initial
system trying to break it down on Thu. Models may also be trending
Fri`s system farther N with our CWA on the Srn fringe of any precip
chances...which now appear N of I-80. In the least...temperatures
will be trending cooler. JHM
&&
.AVIATION...
Upper ridge axis will be shifting Ewd over Norcal today and tonite.
Clear skies...light winds and high humidity under strong subsidence
create ideal conditions for radiation fog this morning. HRRR forecast
VSBY suggests IFR/LIFR conditions in FG are possible in the Central
Vly from KMOD to as far N as KMYV...KOVE...KCIC. Conditions improving
to VFR after 18z-20z.
Weak wx system encountering ridge axis will spread some light rain
across the Nrn mtns tonite...with patchy FG possible again from
KMYV Swd Sat morning.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1034 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016
...SOME LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT...
MAIN WX FOCUS FOR THE NEXT 24 H WILL BE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH CO TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SRN UT AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME LIGHT
SN SHOWERS IN ERN UT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. SNOW AMTS OUT
WEST HAVE BEEN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS IN
LIQUID...BUT WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED A BIT AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND SOME LEE SIDE COLUMN STRETCHING OCCURS. PV
ANALYSIS AND MODEL FORECASTS SHOW BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP
OCCURRING IN THE 03Z TO 09Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
ERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. FARTHER EAST...SN PROBABILITIES LOOK
CONSIDERABLY LESS. THE LATEST HRRR IS CATCHING ON TO THIS POTENTIAL
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND IS SHOWING A PRETTY GOOD BAND OF
PRECIP DEVELOPING OVER WRN PUEBLO COUNTY AROUND 09Z. HAVE ALREADY
INCREASED POPS OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR FOR THIS EVE...BUT IF TRENDS
CONTINUE MAY HAVE TO INCREASE POPS SOME MORE FOR THIS AREA. SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE REGARDLESS...STILL LOOKING AT
AROUND 1-3 INCHES FOR THE ERN MTS AND GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH FOR
THE PLAINS. THE LATEST HRRR INDICATING MORE LIKE 2-3 INCHES...BUT
FOR NOW WILL STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL
KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT... SO DESPITE CONTINUED COLD
AIR ALOFT...SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES HIGHER
THAN THEY WERE FOR LAST NIGHT.
TOMORROW...WILL SEE CLEARING FROM NW TO SE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
ONWARD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY MID DAY. CONTINUED COLD AIR ALOFT
AND NRLY FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL HOLD DAYTIME HIGHS ON THE COLD
SIDE OF AVERAGE. WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW BELOW GUIDANCE AS MOS
VALUES LOOK A BIT TOO WARM FOR KPUB AND ESPECIALLY KCOS...WHERE
RESIDUAL SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD DOWN THE HIGHS. SHOULD SEE
MAINLY 30S TOMORROW ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS...AND 20S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE
WEST...AND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS IT
SHOULD BE A PLEASANT END TO THE WEEK DESPITE THE COOLER THAN
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016
FRI NIGHT...GENERALLY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WL BE OVR THE
FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY STILL BE BELOW
AVERAGE. ON SATURDAY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE STATE BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEATHER WL STILL
BE DRY. TEMPS ALOFT WL WARM ON SAT AND MOST LOCATIONS WL SEE WARMER
HIGH TEMPS. MUCH OF THE SERN PLAINS SHOULD SEE HIGHS THAT ARE NEAR
OR A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE...ALTHOUGH AREAS WITH LINGER SNOW COVER
MAY BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE. THE HIGH VALLEYS WL ALSO LIKELY BE A
LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE.
SAT NIGHT AN UPR TROF WL BE MOVING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN
PLAINS STATES...SENDING A FRONT INTO SERN CO. AT THIS TIME...THE
FORECAST MODELS KEEP THE WEATHER DRY ACRS THE FORECAST AREA SAT
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OVR THE CENTRAL
MTNS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...TEMPS OVR THE SERN PLAINS ON SUN
SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER.
AS THE UPR TROF OVR THE PLAINS STATES MOVES EASTWARD...AN UPR RIDGE
WL BE BUILDING OVR THE GREAT BASIN AND MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES BY
MONDAY...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THAT AREA THRU THE
COMING WEEK. THIS WL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER ACRS THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG WITH WARMER...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016
RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND RADAR INDICATE
THAT SNOW...SOME ACCUMULATING...IS ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF EL
PASO COUNTY...WITH LOCALIZED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO THREE INCHES
POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. SNOW WILL TEND TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...ALLOWING MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES...PRIMARILY AT KCOS AND KPUB TONIGHT...WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM LATER FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM SOUTHERN COLORADO.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1231 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW PRESSURE
TO TRAVEL ALONG AFTER SUNRISE. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL DELIVER A
MIX OF RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM
SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
1 PM UPDATE...
CONTINUE TO REVISE SNOW MAP AS STRONG BANDING CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS BOTH ERN MA AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MA AT THIS TIME. HAVE
REPORTS ALREADY EXCEEDING 8 INCHES IN SEVERAL SPOTS AS A RESULT OF
THESE BANDS. RATIOS USED LIKELY TOO LOW IS PART OF THE ISSUE AS
THE FEW REPORTS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENTS ARE ON TARGET WITH QPF.
OTHERWISE...TIMING STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR ENDING LATER TODAY/THIS
AFTERNOON.
HAVE ADDED ADVISORIES FOR CAPE/VINEYARD AND ALSO HOISTED WIND
ADVISORIES THERE AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS THE LOW
PRES MAKES IT/S CLOSEST PASS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
*** WESTWARD TREND IN THE SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED FOR WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES TO BE EXPANDED ***
BUSY NIGHT AS WE CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE LATEST DATA AND TRENDS FOR
THIS UPCOMING WINTER SYSTEM. PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENS. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
POOL INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO BE CLOSE TO AN INCH.
BIGGEST TREND BETWEEN THE 12Z AND 00Z RUNS IS THAT THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD TREND.
HEAVY PRECIP SWATH OVER NJ AND EASTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND IMPACT WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. BECAUSE OF THIS
UPSTREAM TREND...HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE ALL OF THE PIONEER VALLEY. ANY PRECIP THAT IS OR WILL FALL
WILL BE SNOW ACROSS THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERKS AS MESONET SITES ARE
ALREADY REPORTING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
GUIDANCE.
ASIDE FROM THE EXPANSION...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF EITHER SNOW...OR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS CENTRAL MASS AND INTO CT. THIS IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST DUAL-POL DATA. HIGHER REFLECTIVITY ECHOES ARE STARTING TO
MOVE INTO WINDHAM COUNTY...WHICH WILL BE EITHER A MIX OR JUST SNOW
AS 925 MB TEMPS ARE ALREADY BELOW 32F PER SPC MESO DATA. ANTICIPATE
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO BE FAIRLY BUSY WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND SURFACE LOW NEARS.
P-TYPE AND CHANGE OVER TIMING...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS COASTAL
LOW MOVES ALONG STALLED COLD FRONT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE PRECIP
SHIED HAS EXPANDED FARTHER WESTWARD THEN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...WHICH
IS THE LATEST TREND IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 06Z NAM.
CHANGE OVER HAS ALREADY STARTED TO OCCUR ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STILL
CONCERNED ABOUT THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE FALLING. ANTICIPATE THE CHANGE
OVER TO MAKE IT TO SOUTHEASTERN MASS INCLUDING BOS AND PVD CLOSER TO
THE 6-8 AM HOUR. THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER AS CAA
WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO REACH THEM. FEEL IT WILL BE CLOSER TO
10AM-NOON. ALTHOUGH SLEET MAY MIX IN DURING THE TRANSITION...BELIEVE
MANY LOCATIONS WILL SWITCH FROM RAIN TO STRAIGHT SNOW.
QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...
HAVE ADJUSTED THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
GENERALLY BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING WILL GET AT
LEAST A SLOPPY 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HILLS WITHIN
TOLLAND...WINDHAM...WORCESTER AND PROVIDENCE COUNTIES. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR QPF. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES. BELIEVE WE HAVE A GOOD TREND GOING
AT THIS TIME. SOME AREAS IN QUESTION WHICH COULD BE UPGRADED WITHIN
THE WARNING IS SOUTHERN BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES. HOWEVER THESE
LOCATIONS MAY BE STUCK IN THE MIX LONGER KEEPING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
LOW. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERK TO AN
ADV AS SNOW IS ALREADY STARTING TO FALL PER WEBCAMS. THE PIONEER AND
CONNECTICUT VALLEY MAY SEE LOWER AMOUNTS AS WELL THANKS TO
SHADOWING. SO EVEN THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS ARE OUT...THERE STILL COULD
BE SOME CHANGES THANKS TO SOME MESOSCALE ISSUES.
IMPACTS...
DUE TO THE FACT THAT SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOW WITH THIS STORM...AND
BANDING WITH 1+ INCH/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. THIS WILL BE EXACERBATED BY A LLJ AROUND
40 KT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME OF IT/S MOMENTUM.
THEREFORE...THE COMBINATION OF WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND HEAVY WET
SNOW MAY INCREASE THE RISK.
THE OTHER PRIMARY IMPACT IS THAT THE CHANGE-OVER AND HEAVIEST
PRECIP/SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF THE AM
COMMUTE...WITH LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MORE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IN RELATION TO PREVIOUS
PROGS SUGGEST A SLOWER END. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE
DRYING THE LOW LEVELS...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW
LEFTOVER MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MA BEFORE THINGS END BY
EARLY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY DROP OFF DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY CAUSE ANY UNTREATED ROADS TO BE SLIPPERY
FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
LONGWAVE SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WEST AND
DIGGING TROUGH IN THE EAST...POINTING TO WARM TREND WEST AND COOLING
EAST. SMALLER SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW A THREE-RING CIRCUS OF
SHORTWAVES EITHER AFFECTING OR WITH POTENTIAL TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH TWO
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
WHERE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES COULD OCCUR.
MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS ALSO AGREE
ON TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS...ONE WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY AND A SECOND CLOSE
TO SHORE TUESDAY. BUT ALL SHOW DIFFERING SCENARIOS FOR HOW THESE
SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BEST CONFIDENCE IN
HANDLING THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEMS IS WITH THE GEFS /ENSEMBLES/
THE DAILIES...
TONIGHT-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN USA. EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND OVER FRESH SNOW COVER
MAY LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT THAN INDICATED BY GUIDANCE. WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...WE BUMPED
GUIDANCE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES. ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS ALOFT
SHIFTING SOUTHWEST...THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD REACH AROUND 950 MB.
TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.
SUNDAY...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSS THE NORTHEAST USA. THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO LOSE THE FRONT
IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS SUGGEST JUST
A FEW CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC
INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER
40S. THE COLDER AIR ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING MIN TEMPS
ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...GENERATES A
SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST USA COAST. THIS COASTAL LOW THEN MOVES
NORTHEAST AND PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF OUR AREA. NORMALLY THIS PATH
WOULD KEEP PCPN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WE
COULD DEVELOP SUFFICIENT MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE TO BRING
CLOUDS AND PCPN MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...BUT WITH POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW
MIX NEAR THE COAST.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ASHORE FROM THE PACIFIC TONIGHT AND CROSSES
TO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DIGS AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE MIDWEST AND LEADS TO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW THEN MOVES UP
THE COAST TUESDAY AND PASSES OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. EACH MODEL
HANDLES THIS COASTAL LOW DIFFERENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
SOLUTION IS LOW. CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES FEET-DRY ON THE PACIFIC COAST.
BEST DYNAMICS UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET
MOVES OFF TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...SO BEST CHANCE
OF PCPN SHOULD BE ON TUESDAY THEN DIMINISH TO SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. PTYPE AGAIN FAVORS SNOW INLAND AND SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE COAST.
UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL FROM THE MIDWEST LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST
USA THROUGH THURSDAY MAINTAINING SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...TIMING MAY BE OFF A BIT.
AREAS OF LIFR/IFR IN HEAVY SNOW AND LOW CIGS CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT 20Z EVERYWHERE...THEN GIVE WAY TO VFR FROM W-E THROUGH 00Z.
STRONG N WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT OVER THE INTERIOR AND 30-40 KT
ALONG THE CAPE/ISLAND.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. ANY UNTREATED AND WET RUNWAYS WILL FREEZE AS
TEMPERATURES DROP RAPIDLY. WIND GUSTS REMAIN N-NW BUT DIMINISH
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TOMORROW...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 KT
OR LESS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...TIMING MAY BE OFF A
BIT.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS....TIMING MAY BE OFF A
BIT.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY... NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND 35-45
KT ON THE EASTERN WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. SEAS BECOME HIGH...MAINLY 8-10 FT ON THE SE OCEAN
WATERS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN/FOG ACROSS THE WATERS
WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO SNOW NEAR THE EASTERN SHORELINES.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
TONIGHT...DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS EARLY AND
POPPING UNDER 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS AS HIGH AS 14 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT TO 5-7 FEET BY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST WATERS DURING THE
NIGHT.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY BELOW 25 KNOTS BUT
GUSTING NEAR 25 KNOTS EAST OF CAPE ANN SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS
DIMINISH SATURDAY BUT THEN RETURN TO NEAR 5 FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN
SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...NORTH WINDS TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST
NEAR 30 KNOTS EACH DAY. DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL BEHAVIOR OF THE
TWO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS PASSING BY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WINDS TO REACH 35-40 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR GALES AT
THIS TIME...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. WINDS TURN BACK TO NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ019>021.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ004>007-009-011>018-026.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ002-003-008-010.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022>024.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ022.
RI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ007.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
RIZ001>006.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
250-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
236-251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1001 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW PRESSURE
TO TRAVEL ALONG AFTER SUNRISE. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL DELIVER A
MIX OF RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM
SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
10 AM UPDATE...
KBOX CC DATA SHOWS A NEARLY STALLING RAIN/SNOW LINE JUST OVER THE
CC CANAL AT THIS TIME. IF ANYTHING IT/S LIKELY TO PIVOT TO A MORE
S-N ORIENTATION. OTHERWISE SNOW FOR MOST EVERYONE AT THIS POINT
EVEN WITH MARGINAL SFC TEMPS NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING.
RATIOS HAVE BEEN LOW SO FAR EVERYWHERE OUTSIDE OF WRN MA/CT WHERE
THE CHANGEOVER OCCURRED EARLIER AND DWPTS CONTINUE TO DROP.
THE KEY NOW IS TO MONITOR STRONG BANDING OCCURRING THROUGH
CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/CT CONNECTED TO A BAND AROUND H6-H5 OR
RIGHT WITHIN THE -12C TO -18C GROWTH REGIME. HENCE WE ARE SEEING
1-2 INCH/HOUR RATES IN AN AREA OF 30DBZ. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE
TO PIVOT SLIGHTLY THEN SLIDE E THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...STILL EXPECT GOOD ACCUMS OVER THE NEXT 3-6
HOURS FOR CENTRAL MA/CT AS WELL AS RI AND ERN MA A BIT LATER. AS
SUCH HAVE UPPED TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION AND NOW FEATURE A BAND OF
8+ INCHES FROM NE CT-NRN RI AND CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN MA. MORE REFINEMENT LIKELY TO COME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
*** WESTWARD TREND IN THE SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED FOR WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES TO BE EXPANDED ***
BUSY NIGHT AS WE CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE LATEST DATA AND TRENDS FOR
THIS UPCOMING WINTER SYSTEM. PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENS. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
POOL INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO BE CLOSE TO AN INCH.
BIGGEST TREND BETWEEN THE 12Z AND 00Z RUNS IS THAT THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD TREND.
HEAVY PRECIP SWATH OVER NJ AND EASTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND IMPACT WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. BECAUSE OF THIS
UPSTREAM TREND...HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE ALL OF THE PIONEER VALLEY. ANY PRECIP THAT IS OR WILL FALL
WILL BE SNOW ACROSS THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERKS AS MESONET SITES ARE
ALREADY REPORTING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
GUIDANCE.
ASIDE FROM THE EXPANSION...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF EITHER SNOW...OR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS CENTRAL MASS AND INTO CT. THIS IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST DUAL-POL DATA. HIGHER REFLECTIVITY ECHOES ARE STARTING TO
MOVE INTO WINDHAM COUNTY...WHICH WILL BE EITHER A MIX OR JUST SNOW
AS 925 MB TEMPS ARE ALREADY BELOW 32F PER SPC MESO DATA. ANTICIPATE
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO BE FAIRLY BUSY WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND SURFACE LOW NEARS.
P-TYPE AND CHANGE OVER TIMING...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS COASTAL
LOW MOVES ALONG STALLED COLD FRONT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE PRECIP
SHIED HAS EXPANDED FARTHER WESTWARD THEN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...WHICH
IS THE LATEST TREND IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 06Z NAM.
CHANGE OVER HAS ALREADY STARTED TO OCCUR ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STILL
CONCERNED ABOUT THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE FALLING. ANTICIPATE THE CHANGE
OVER TO MAKE IT TO SOUTHEASTERN MASS INCLUDING BOS AND PVD CLOSER TO
THE 6-8 AM HOUR. THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER AS CAA
WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO REACH THEM. FEEL IT WILL BE CLOSER TO
10AM-NOON. ALTHOUGH SLEET MAY MIX IN DURING THE TRANSITION...BELIEVE
MANY LOCATIONS WILL SWITCH FROM RAIN TO STRAIGHT SNOW.
QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...
HAVE ADJUSTED THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
GENERALLY BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING WILL GET AT
LEAST A SLOPPY 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HILLS WITHIN
TOLLAND...WINDHAM...WORCESTER AND PROVIDENCE COUNTIES. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR QPF. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES. BELIEVE WE HAVE A GOOD TREND GOING
AT THIS TIME. SOME AREAS IN QUESTION WHICH COULD BE UPGRADED WITHIN
THE WARNING IS SOUTHERN BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES. HOWEVER THESE
LOCATIONS MAY BE STUCK IN THE MIX LONGER KEEPING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
LOW. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERK TO AN
ADV AS SNOW IS ALREADY STARTING TO FALL PER WEBCAMS. THE PIONEER AND
CONNECTICUT VALLEY MAY SEE LOWER AMOUNTS AS WELL THANKS TO
SHADOWING. SO EVEN THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS ARE OUT...THERE STILL COULD
BE SOME CHANGES THANKS TO SOME MESOSCALE ISSUES.
IMPACTS...
DUE TO THE FACT THAT SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOW WITH THIS STORM...AND
BANDING WITH 1+ INCH/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. THIS WILL BE EXACERBATED BY A LLJ AROUND
40 KT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME OF IT/S MOMENTUM.
THEREFORE...THE COMBINATION OF WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND HEAVY WET
SNOW MAY INCREASE THE RISK.
THE OTHER PRIMARY IMPACT IS THAT THE CHANGE-OVER AND HEAVIEST
PRECIP/SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF THE AM
COMMUTE...WITH LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MORE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IN RELATION TO PREVIOUS
PROGS SUGGEST A SLOWER END. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE
DRYING THE LOW LEVELS...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW
LEFTOVER MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MA BEFORE THINGS END BY
EARLY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY DROP OFF DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY CAUSE ANY UNTREATED ROADS TO BE SLIPPERY
FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
LONGWAVE SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WEST AND
DIGGING TROUGH IN THE EAST...POINTING TO WARM TREND WEST AND COOLING
EAST. SMALLER SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW A THREE-RING CIRCUS OF
SHORTWAVES EITHER AFFECTING OR WITH POTENTIAL TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH TWO
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
WHERE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES COULD OCCUR.
MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS ALSO AGREE
ON TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS...ONE WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY AND A SECOND CLOSE
TO SHORE TUESDAY. BUT ALL SHOW DIFFERING SCENARIOS FOR HOW THESE
SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BEST CONFIDENCE IN
HANDLING THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEMS IS WITH THE GEFS /ENSEMBLES/
THE DAILIES...
TONIGHT-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN USA. EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND OVER FRESH SNOW COVER
MAY LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT THAN INDICATED BY GUIDANCE. WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...WE BUMPED
GUIDANCE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES. ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS ALOFT
SHIFTING SOUTHWEST...THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD REACH AROUND 950 MB.
TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.
SUNDAY...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSS THE NORTHEAST USA. THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO LOSE THE FRONT
IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS SUGGEST JUST
A FEW CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC
INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER
40S. THE COLDER AIR ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING MIN TEMPS
ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...GENERATES A
SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST USA COAST. THIS COASTAL LOW THEN MOVES
NORTHEAST AND PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF OUR AREA. NORMALLY THIS PATH
WOULD KEEP PCPN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WE
COULD DEVELOP SUFFICIENT MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE TO BRING
CLOUDS AND PCPN MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...BUT WITH POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW
MIX NEAR THE COAST.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ASHORE FROM THE PACIFIC TONIGHT AND CROSSES
TO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DIGS AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE MIDWEST AND LEADS TO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW THEN MOVES UP
THE COAST TUESDAY AND PASSES OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. EACH MODEL
HANDLES THIS COASTAL LOW DIFFERENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
SOLUTION IS LOW. CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES FEET-DRY ON THE PACIFIC COAST.
BEST DYNAMICS UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET
MOVES OFF TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...SO BEST CHANCE
OF PCPN SHOULD BE ON TUESDAY THEN DIMINISH TO SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. PTYPE AGAIN FAVORS SNOW INLAND AND SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE COAST.
UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL FROM THE MIDWEST LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST
USA THROUGH THURSDAY MAINTAINING SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THROUGH 18Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST
OF THE TERMINALS. THE CHANGE OVER LINE IS PUSHING THROUGH UUU AND
PYM. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS SWITCHING ALL PRECIP TO SNOW. ANTICIPATE SNOW ACCUMS ON
THE RUNWAYS ESP ORH...BOS AND PVD. GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20-30 KTS
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AFTER 15Z.
AFTER 18Z TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SNOWS/RAIN COME TO AN END AND VERY QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY... NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND 35-45
KT ON THE EASTERN WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. SEAS BECOME HIGH...MAINLY 8-10 FT ON THE SE OCEAN
WATERS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN/FOG ACROSS THE WATERS
WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO SNOW NEAR THE EASTERN SHORELINES.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
TONIGHT...DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS EARLY AND
POPPING UNDER 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS AS HIGH AS 14 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT TO 5-7 FEET BY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST WATERS DURING THE
NIGHT.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY BELOW 25 KNOTS BUT
GUSTING NEAR 25 KNOTS EAST OF CAPE ANN SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS
DIMINISH SATURDAY BUT THEN RETURN TO NEAR 5 FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN
SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...NORTH WINDS TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST
NEAR 30 KNOTS EACH DAY. DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL BEHAVIOR OF THE
TWO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS PASSING BY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WINDS TO REACH 35-40 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR GALES AT
THIS TIME...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. WINDS TURN BACK TO NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ003-
004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CTZ002.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ019>022.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ004>007-012>018-026.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ002-003-008>011.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
RIZ007.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
RIZ001>006.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
250-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
236-251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
628 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW PRESSURE
TO TRAVEL ALONG AFTER SUNRISE. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL DELIVER A
MIX OF RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM
SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
630 AM UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
DUAL-POL RADAR DATA SHOWS THE CHANGE OVER LINE SLOWLY MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN RI AND INTO PLYMOUTH MASS. THIS LINE WILL SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ALREADY RECEIVING A FEW 1 INCH REPORTS WHICH LINES UP WITH THE
ONGOING FORECAST. THESE AMOUNTS ARE LOCATED ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN WORCESTER AND TOLLAND COUNTY. BELIEVE THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS.
ALREADY NOTICING SOME BANDING DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
MASS...CENTRAL MASS. THIS LINES UP WITH THE STRONG OMEGA LIFT
WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. COULD SEE VSBYS REDUCED QUICKLY
WITHIN THESE BANDS AND A QUICK INCH OR TWO WITHIN THESE BANDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
*** WESTWARD TREND IN THE SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED FOR WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES TO BE EXPANDED ***
BUSY NIGHT AS WE CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE LATEST DATA AND TRENDS FOR
THIS UPCOMING WINTER SYSTEM. PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENS. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
POOL INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO BE CLOSE TO AN INCH.
BIGGEST TREND BETWEEN THE 12Z AND 00Z RUNS IS THAT THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD TREND.
HEAVY PRECIP SWATH OVER NJ AND EASTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND IMPACT WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. BECAUSE OF THIS
UPSTREAM TREND...HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE ALL OF THE PIONEER VALLEY. ANY PRECIP THAT IS OR WILL FALL
WILL BE SNOW ACROSS THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERKS AS MESONET SITES ARE
ALREADY REPORTING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
GUIDANCE.
ASIDE FROM THE EXPANSION...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF EITHER SNOW...OR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS CENTRAL MASS AND INTO CT. THIS IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST DUAL-POL DATA. HIGHER REFLECTIVITY ECHOES ARE STARTING TO
MOVE INTO WINDHAM COUNTY...WHICH WILL BE EITHER A MIX OR JUST SNOW
AS 925 MB TEMPS ARE ALREADY BELOW 32F PER SPC MESO DATA. ANTICIPATE
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO BE FAIRLY BUSY WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND SURFACE LOW NEARS.
P-TYPE AND CHANGE OVER TIMING...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS COASTAL
LOW MOVES ALONG STALLED COLD FRONT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE PRECIP
SHIED HAS EXPANDED FARTHER WESTWARD THEN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...WHICH
IS THE LATEST TREND IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 06Z NAM.
CHANGE OVER HAS ALREADY STARTED TO OCCUR ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STILL
CONCERNED ABOUT THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE FALLING. ANTICIPATE THE CHANGE
OVER TO MAKE IT TO SOUTHEASTERN MASS INCLUDING BOS AND PVD CLOSER TO
THE 6-8 AM HOUR. THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER AS CAA
WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO REACH THEM. FEEL IT WILL BE CLOSER TO
10AM-NOON. ALTHOUGH SLEET MAY MIX IN DURING THE TRANSITION...BELIEVE
MANY LOCATIONS WILL SWITCH FROM RAIN TO STRAIGHT SNOW.
QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...
HAVE ADJUSTED THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
GENERALLY BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING WILL GET AT
LEAST A SLOPPY 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HILLS WITHIN
TOLLAND...WINDHAM...WORCESTER AND PROVIDENCE COUNTIES. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR QPF. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES. BELIEVE WE HAVE A GOOD TREND GOING
AT THIS TIME. SOME AREAS IN QUESTION WHICH COULD BE UPGRADED WITHIN
THE WARNING IS SOUTHERN BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES. HOWEVER THESE
LOCATIONS MAY BE STUCK IN THE MIX LONGER KEEPING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
LOW. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERK TO AN
ADV AS SNOW IS ALREADY STARTING TO FALL PER WEBCAMS. THE PIONEER AND
CONNECTICUT VALLEY MAY SEE LOWER AMOUNTS AS WELL THANKS TO
SHADOWING. SO EVEN THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS ARE OUT...THERE STILL COULD
BE SOME CHANGES THANKS TO SOME MESOSCALE ISSUES.
IMPACTS...
DUE TO THE FACT THAT SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOW WITH THIS STORM...AND
BANDING WITH 1+ INCH/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. THIS WILL BE EXACERBATED BY A LLJ AROUND
40 KT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME OF IT/S MOMENTUM.
THEREFORE...THE COMBINATION OF WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND HEAVY WET
SNOW MAY INCREASE THE RISK.
THE OTHER PRIMARY IMPACT IS THAT THE CHANGE-OVER AND HEAVIEST
PRECIP/SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF THE AM
COMMUTE...WITH LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MORE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IN RELATION TO PREVIOUS
PROGS SUGGEST A SLOWER END. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE
DRYING THE LOW LEVELS...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW
LEFTOVER MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MA BEFORE THINGS END BY
EARLY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY DROP OFF DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY CAUSE ANY UNTREATED ROADS TO BE SLIPPERY
FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
LONGWAVE SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW BUIDLING RIDGE IN THE WEST AND
DIGGING TROUGH IN THE EAST...POINTING TO WARM TREND WEST AND COOLING
EAST. SMALLER SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW A THREE-RING CIRCUS OF
SHORTWAVES EITHER AFFECTING OR WITH POTENTIAL TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH TWO
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
WHERE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES COULD OCCUR.
MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS ALSO AGREE
ON TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS...ONE WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY AND A SECOND CLOSE
TO SHORE TUESDAY. BUT ALL SHOW DIFFERING SCENARIOS FOR HOW THESE
SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BEST CONFIDENCE IN
HANDLING THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEMS IS WITH THE GEFS /ENSEMBLES/
THE DAILIES...
TONIGHT-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN USA. EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND OVER FRESH SNOW COVER
MAY LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT THAN INDICATED BY GUIDENCE. WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...WE BUMPED
GUIDENCE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES. ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS ALOFT
SHIFTING SOUTHWEST...THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD REACH AROUND 950 MB.
TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.
SUNDAY...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSS THE NORTHEAST USA. THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO LOSE THE FRONT
IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS SUGGEST JUST
A FEW CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC
INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER
40S. THE COLDER AIR ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING MIN TEMPS
ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...GENERATES A
SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST USA COAST. THIS COASTAL LOW THEN MOVES
NORTHEAST AND PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF OUR AREA. NORMALLY THIS PATH
WOULD KEEP PCPN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WE
COULD DEVELOP SUFFICIENT MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE TO BRING
CLOUDS AND PCPN MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...BUT WITH POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW
MIX NEAR THE COAST.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ASHORE FROM THE PACIFIC TONIGHT AND CROSSES
TO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DIGS AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE MIDWEST AND LEADS TO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW THEN MOVES UP
THE COAST TUESDAY AND PASSES OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. EACH MODEL
HANDLES THIS COASTAL LOW DIFFERENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
SOLUTION IS LOW. CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES FEET-DRY ON THE PACIFIC COAST.
BEST DYNAMICS UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET
MOVES OFF TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...SO BEST CHANCE
OF PCPN SHOULD BE ON TUESDAY THEN DIMINISH TO SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. PTYPE AGAIN FAVORS SNOW INLAND AND SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE COAST.
UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL FROM THE MIDWEST LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST
USA THROUGH THURSDAY MAINTAINING SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THROUGH 18Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST
OF THE TERMINALS. THE CHANGE OVER LINE IS PUSHING THROUGH UUU AND
PYM. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS SWITCHING ALL PRECIP TO SNOW. ANTICIPATE SNOW ACCUMS ON
THE RUNWAYS ESP ORH...BOS AND PVD. GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20-30 KTS
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AFTER 15Z.
AFTER 18Z TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SNOWS/RAIN COME TO AN END AND VERY QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.
OUTLOOK /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY... NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND 35-45
KT ON THE EASTERN WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. SEAS BECOME HIGH...MAINLY 8-10 FT ON THE SE OCEAN
WATERS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN/FOG ACROSS THE WATERS
WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO SNOW NEAR THE EASTERN SHORELINES.
OUTLOOK /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
TONIGHT...DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS EARLY AND
POPPING UNDER 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS AS HIGH AS 14 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT TO 5-7 FEET BY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST WATERS DURING THE
NIGHT.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY BELOW 25 KNOTS BUT
GUSTING NEAR 25 KNOTS EAST OF CAPE ANN SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS
DIMINISH SATURDAY BUT THEN RETURN TO NEAR 5 FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN
SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...NORTH WINDS TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST
NEAR 30 KNOTS EACH DAY. DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL BEHAVIOR OF THE
TWO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS PASSING BY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WINDS TO REACH 35-40 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR GALES AT
THIS TIME...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. WINDS TURN BACK TO NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ003-
004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CTZ002.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ019>022.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ004>007-012>018-026.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ002-003-008>011.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
RIZ007.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
RIZ001>006.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
250-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
236-251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
352 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW PRESSURE
TO TRAVEL ALONG AFTER SUNRISE. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL DELIVER A
MIX OF RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM
SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
400 AM UPDATE...
*** WESTWARD TREND IN THE SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED FOR WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES TO BE EXPANDED ***
BUSY NIGHT AS WE CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE LATEST DATA AND TRENDS FOR
THIS UPCOMING WINTER SYSTEM. PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENS. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
POOL INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO BE CLOSE TO AN INCH.
BIGGEST TREND BETWEEN THE 12Z AND 00Z RUNS IS THAT THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD TREND.
HEAVY PRECIP SWATH OVER NJ AND EASTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND IMPACT WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. BECAUSE OF THIS
UPSTREAM TREND...HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE ALL OF THE PIONEER VALLEY. ANY PRECIP THAT IS OR WILL FALL
WILL BE SNOW ACROSS THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERKS AS MESONET SITES ARE
ALREADY REPORTING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
GUIDANCE.
ASIDE FROM THE EXPANSION...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF EITHER SNOW...OR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS CENTRAL MASS AND INTO CT. THIS IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST DUAL-POL DATA. HIGHER REFLECTIVITY ECHOES ARE STARTING TO
MOVE INTO WINDHAM COUNTY...WHICH WILL BE EITHER A MIX OR JUST SNOW
AS 925 MB TEMPS ARE ALREADY BELOW 32F PER SPC MESO DATA. ANTICIPATE
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO BE FAIRLY BUSY WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND SURFACE LOW NEARS.
P-TYPE AND CHANGE OVER TIMING...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS COASTAL
LOW MOVES ALONG STALLED COLD FRONT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE PRECIP
SHIED HAS EXPANDED FARTHER WESTWARD THEN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...WHICH
IS THE LATEST TREND IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 06Z NAM.
CHANGE OVER HAS ALREADY STARTED TO OCCUR ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STILL
CONCERNED ABOUT THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE FALLING. ANTICIPATE THE CHANGE
OVER TO MAKE IT TO SOUTHEASTERN MASS INCLUDING BOS AND PVD CLOSER TO
THE 6-8 AM HOUR. THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER AS CAA
WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO REACH THEM. FEEL IT WILL BE CLOSER TO
10AM-NOON. ALTHOUGH SLEET MAY MIX IN DURING THE TRANSITION...BELIEVE
MANY LOCATIONS WILL SWITCH FROM RAIN TO STRAIGHT SNOW.
QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...
HAVE ADJUSTED THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
GENERALLY BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING WILL GET AT
LEAST A SLOPPY 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HILLS WITHIN
TOLLAND...WINDHAM...WORCESTER AND PROVIDENCE COUNTIES. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR QPF. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES. BELIEVE WE HAVE A GOOD TREND GOING
AT THIS TIME. SOME AREAS IN QUESTION WHICH COULD BE UPGRADED WITHIN
THE WARNING IS SOUTHERN BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES. HOWEVER THESE
LOCATIONS MAY BE STUCK IN THE MIX LONGER KEEPING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
LOW. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERK TO AN
ADV AS SNOW IS ALREADY STARTING TO FALL PER WEBCAMS. THE PIONEER AND
CONNECTICUT VALLEY MAY SEE LOWER AMOUNTS AS WELL THANKS TO
SHADOWING. SO EVEN THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS ARE OUT...THERE STILL COULD
BE SOME CHANGES THANKS TO SOME MESOSCALE ISSUES.
IMPACTS...
DUE TO THE FACT THAT SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOW WITH THIS STORM...AND
BANDING WITH 1+ INCH/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. THIS WILL BE EXACERBATED BY A LLJ AROUND
40 KT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME OF IT/S MOMENTUM.
THEREFORE...THE COMBINATION OF WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND HEAVY WET
SNOW MAY INCREASE THE RISK.
THE OTHER PRIMARY IMPACT IS THAT THE CHANGE-OVER AND HEAVIEST
PRECIP/SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF THE AM
COMMUTE...WITH LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /2 PM THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
THE MORE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IN RELATION TO PREVIOUS
PROGS SUGGEST A SLOWER END. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE
DRYING THE LOW LEVELS...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW
LEFTOVER MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MA BEFORE THINGS END BY
EARLY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY DROP OFF DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY CAUSE ANY UNTREATED ROADS TO BE SLIPPERY
FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
LONGWAVE SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW BUIDLING RIDGE IN THE WEST AND
DIGGING TROUGH IN THE EAST...POINTING TO WARM TREND WEST AND COOLING
EAST. SMALLER SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW A THREE-RING CIRCUS OF
SHORTWAVES EITHER AFFECTING OR WITH POTENTIAL TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH TWO
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
WHERE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES COULD OCCUR.
MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS ALSO AGREE
ON TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS...ONE WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY AND A SECOND CLOSE
TO SHORE TUESDAY. BUT ALL SHOW DIFFERING SCENARIOS FOR HOW THESE
SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BEST CONFIDENCE IN
HANDLING THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEMS IS WITH THE GEFS /ENSEMBLES/
THE DAILIES...
TONIGHT-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN USA. EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND OVER FRESH SNOW COVER
MAY LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT THAN INDICATED BY GUIDENCE. WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...WE BUMPED
GUIDENCE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES. ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS ALOFT
SHIFTING SOUTHWEST...THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD REACH AROUND 950 MB.
TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.
SUNDAY...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSS THE NORTHEAST USA. THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO LOSE THE FRONT
IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS SUGGEST JUST
A FEW CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC
INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER
40S. THE COLDER AIR ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING MIN TEMPS
ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...GENERATES A
SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST USA COAST. THIS COASTAL LOW THEN MOVES
NORTHEAST AND PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF OUR AREA. NORMALLY THIS PATH
WOULD KEEP PCPN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WE
COULD DEVELOP SUFFICIENT MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE TO BRING
CLOUDS AND PCPN MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...BUT WITH POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW
MIX NEAR THE COAST.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ASHORE FROM THE PACIFIC TONIGHT AND CROSSES
TO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DIGS AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE MIDWEST AND LEADS TO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW THEN MOVES UP
THE COAST TUESDAY AND PASSES OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. EACH MODEL
HANDLES THIS COASTAL LOW DIFFERENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
SOLUTION IS LOW. CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES FEET-DRY ON THE PACIFIC COAST.
BEST DYNAMICS UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET
MOVES OFF TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...SO BEST CHANCE
OF PCPN SHOULD BE ON TUESDAY THEN DIMINISH TO SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. PTYPE AGAIN FAVORS SNOW INLAND AND SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE COAST.
UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL FROM THE MIDWEST LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST
USA THROUGH THURSDAY MAINTAINING SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THROUGH 18Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THE RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO
EXPAND NORTHWEST...COVERING MOST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND BY ABOUT
10-12Z. THIS WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW
CIGS/VSBYS. THEN...AFTER 09Z ESPECIALLY THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO
SNOW FROM NW- SE UNTIL IT/S ALL SNOW AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS BY
ABOUT 16Z. SOME ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY
SFCS. HOWEVER RUNWAYS MAY RECEIVE A PLOWABLE AMOUNT OF SNOW. THIS
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS.
AFTER 18Z TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SNOWS/RAIN COME TO AN END AND VERY QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF PRECIP AND CHANGE TO SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
PRECIP TIMING.
OUTLOOK /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY... NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND 35-45
KT ON THE EASTERN WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. SEAS BECOME HIGH...MAINLY 8-10 FT ON THE SE OCEAN
WATERS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN/FOG ACROSS THE WATERS
WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO SNOW NEAR THE EASTERN SHORELINES.
OUTLOOK /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
TONIGHT...DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS EARLY AND
POPPING UNDER 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS AS HIGH AS 14 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT TO 5-7 FEET BY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST WATERS DURING THE
NIGHT.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY BELOW 25 KNOTS BUT
GUSTING NEAR 25 KNOTS EAST OF CAPE ANN SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS
DIMINISH SATURDAY BUT THEN RETURN TO NEAR 5 FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN
SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...NORTH WINDS TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST
NEAR 30 KNOTS EACH DAY. DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL BEHAVIOR OF THE
TWO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS PASSING BY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WINDS TO REACH 35-40 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR GALES AT
THIS TIME...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. WINDS TURN BACK TO NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ003-
004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CTZ002.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ019>022.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ004>007-012>018-026.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ002-003-008>011.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ007.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
RIZ001>006.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ230-236-251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1136 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG AN OFFSHORE FRONT TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A STRONG OCEAN
STORM SHOULD TRACK WELL OFFSHORE LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THEN
ANOTHER STORM LOOKS TO REDEVELOP OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER
MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1115 PM UPDATE...MADE SOME EDITS TO THE HOURLY POP AND WX GRIDS
TO HOPEFULLY BETTER ACCOUNT FOR THE TIMING OF THE CHANGEOVER FROM
RAIN TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
MODEL GUIDANCE, THE TREND WAS TO DELAY THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF RAIN-SNOW LINE BY 1-3 HOURS DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION AS THERE
IS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
OVERCOME INITIALLY.
DESPITE THIS DELAY IN THE CHANGEOVER, SNOW AMOUNTS WERE NOT
LOWERED AS STRONG DYNAMICAL COOLING AND HEAVIER PRECIP RATES
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO YIELD SNOWFALL RATES OF AROUND AN INCH AN
HOUR DURING RUSH HOUR (ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN NJ) UNDER A
MESOSCALE BAND FORMING TO THE NW OF THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW.
THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL BETWEEN 4-9
AM FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND BETWEEN 5 AND 10 AM FARTHER EAST
TOWARD THE NJ AND DE COAST. THIS COINCIDES WITH RUSH HOUR, SO
PLEASE GIVE YOURSELF CONSIDERABLY EXTRA TIME TO GET TO YOUR
DESTINATION IN THE MORNING AND EVEN CONSIDER DELAYING YOUR TRAVEL
(IF POSSIBLE) IF THE ROADS BECOME SNOW COVERED DURING RUSH HOUR.
ARGUABLY THERE IS A SLIGHT BOOST OF CONFIDENCE THAT SNOWFALL
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH THE SIMULATED SNOWFALL FROM THE
LATEST 00Z HRRRX USING A VARIABLE DENSITY JUST ABOUT MATCHES
OURS. THIS FORECAST PARAMETER FROM THE HRRRX PERFORMED EXTREMELY
WELL WITH THE BLIZZARD TWO WEEKS AGO THOUGH THE SETUPS FOR THESE
TWO EVENTS ARE VASTLY DIFFERENT. NOTE THE PARAMETER FROM THE
HRRR/HRRRX OR ANY OTHER MODELS THAT ASSUMES A 10:1 SNOW RATIO FOR
THIS EVENT WILL BE OVERDONE AS IT DOESN`T TAKE INTO ACCOUNT
THERMAL PROFILES THAT ALTER THE MICROPHYSICS, MIXING AND SURFACE
MELTING (WHICH ALL ARE IMPORTANT FACTORS IN THIS EVENT).
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE LOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO INTENSIFY ALONG THE NOW STATIONARY
FRONT AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. FEW CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST WITH THE EVENING UPDATE. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE TRENDED SNOWIER WITH THE LATEST
RUNS. HOWEVER, I HESITATE TO CHANGE THE SNOW AMOUNTS AS MANY
LOCATIONS STILL HAVE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE 32 DEGREES,
MEANING WE`RE STILL SEVERAL HOURS AWAY FROM THE CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW. THUS FOR NOW, WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SNOW AMOUNTS AND WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CONFIGURATION FROM THE 4 PM UPDATE, BUT WILL BE
WATCHING THE TIMING OF THE CHANGE OVER VERY CLOSELY.
TIMING...RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND HAS BEGUN TO
MOVE INTO THE DELAWARE VALLEY. EXPECT THAT IT SHOULD MOVE WEST
THROUGH THE OVER NIGHT HOURS REACHING THE LEHIGH VALLEY DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE TIMING OF THE SNOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
IMPACT PART, IF NOT ALL, OF THE MORNING COMMUTE AND THAT IS WHY WE
HAVE INCLUDED AREAS TO THE WEST OF PHILADELPHIA. IT CERTAINLY
LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A SLOPPY AND SLIPPERY MORNING COMMUTE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
SNOW/RAIN...SNOW SEEMS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH WITH
TEMPERATURES STILL HANGING OUT IN THE 40S LATE THIS EVENING,
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE AS ALL RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT,
AND THEN TRANSITION OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW
DURING THE VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS (AT THIS POINT EXPECT THE
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW TO BE BETWEEN 2 AND 6 AM DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH DEW POINTS FALL). AS THE PRECIPITATION FALLS, IT WILL START
TO COOL THE COLUMN. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE JUST HOW FAST THAT
COLUMN COOLS. PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WILL DEFINITELY PLAY A ROLE
AND AS WE SEE SOME HEAVIER PRECIPITATION FALL, THE COLUMN WILL
COOL FASTER AND WE SHOULD SEE A QUICK CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO
SNOW. THE BEST VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS TO OCCUR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD AND THIS WOULD LEND TO HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF AN ACCUMULATING SNOW. WHILE THE GROUND TEMPS MAY BE
FAIRLY WARM RIGHT NOW, INCREASED PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WILL
ALLOW FOR ALL SURFACES TO ACCUMULATE, EVEN PAVED ROADS.
AMOUNTS WILL VARY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AS YOU MOVE FURTHER INLAND AND
HIGHEST AMOUNTS MORE TOWARDS THE COAST. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
HINTS AT HIGHER TOTALS (THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST) IN EASTERN NEW
JERSEY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE A
WARNING BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS FURTHER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY BE ENDING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE LOW PRESSURE PULLS FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA. MOST
AREAS SHOULD SEE SNOW ENDING BY 10AM WITH SOME OF THE COASTAL
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY SEEING SOME FLAKES THROUGH AROUND NOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND WE
EXPECT THE AREA TO DRY OUT AND REMAIN THAT WAY AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUMMARY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH AN OCEAN STORM LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WHICH SHOULD SLIDE WELL OFFSHORE, THEN QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE TO REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES.
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP INVOLVES A TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THAT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST. A MORE COMPLEX PATTERN THEN EVOLVES
WITH A CLOSED LOW IN CANADA WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY IN THE
SOUTHERN STATES SATURDAY. THE LATTER SHOULD ALLOW A STORM TO DEVELOP
OVER THE WEEKEND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHICH THEN DEEPENS RAPIDLY,
HOWEVER THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE SUCH TO KEEP IT
OFFSHORE AS IT TURNS NORTHEASTWARD. AN IMPRESSIVE TROUGH THEN IN THE
PLAINS MOVES EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
SORT OF REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE ONE TO WATCH GIVEN SUCH
A DEEP INCOMING TROUGH THAT COULD CLOSE OFF INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. HOWEVER, THE INTERACTION WITH THE INITIAL OCEAN STORM COULD
VERY WELL INFLUENCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SECOND STORM. WE USED A
MODEL BLEND WITH CONTINUITY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THEN
BLENDED IN MOSTLY THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS
WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR
NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BACKS MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT BEGINS TO SLIDE NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA, WHICH
WILL RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE SHOULD BE DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING COMBINED WITH LOW DEW POINTS, THEREFORE A COLD NIGHT IS
ANTICIPATED.
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY
SATURDAY BEFORE WEAKENING INTO SUNDAY. OUR REGION LOOKS TO END UP
BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING THE WEEKEND AS A MAIN TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND AND ANOTHER ONE CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THE LATTER SHOULD DRIVE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST DURING SUNDAY WHICH THEN SHOULD GO OUT TO SEA AS IT RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES, ALTHOUGH IT MAY TOSS AT LEAST SOME CLOUDINESS OUR WAY.
THE NORTHERN SYSTEM SHOULD SEND A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA LATER
SUNDAY, HOWEVER THIS FEATURE LOOKS WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED. AS A
RESULT, WE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY ATTM.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO
SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION AS A ROBUST TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND INTO THE EAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN
LOW PRESSURE INTO THE GREAT LAKES, HOWEVER THEN HANDING OFF ENERGY
EASTWARD THAT REDEVELOPS LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE REDEVELOPMENT/TRACK OF THIS STORM MAY
DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE PREVIOUS ONE WHICH
IS MORE OFFSHORE. IN ADDITION, THERE COULD BE A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA TUESDAY WHERE LIFT IS ENHANCED,
HOWEVER THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW
REDEVELOPMENT. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A DECENT COASTAL
STORM WITH COLD AIR COMING INTO PLAY. WHILE THERE IS A SIGNAL IN THE
GUIDANCE REGARDING A STORM, THE TRACK AND INTENSITY IS LESS CERTAIN
AND THAT WILL DETERMINE THE ACTUAL DETAILS /IF ANY/ FOR OUR AREA
WHICH INCLUDES RAIN, SNOW, WIND AND COASTAL IMPACTS. GIVEN THE
VARIABILITY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THIS TIME FRAME.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO BE IN THE EAST, BASICALLY MOVING OVER OUR AREA. THIS WOULD TAKE
ANY COASTAL STORM OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR
GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS. AN ARCTIC FRONT OF SORTS MAY SLIDE
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT
IN SOME CLOUDS AND COLDER AIR WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO ARRIVE DURING THURSDAY FROM THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL CONTINUE AT THE DELAWARE VALLEY SITES (KPHL,
KPNE, KTTN, AND KILG) AND THE COASTAL PLAIN SITES (KMIV AND KACY)
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE INTO
KRDG AND KABE AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIMING OF THE CHANGE OVER TO A RAIN
AND SNOW MIX AND EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW IS UNCERTAIN, BUT AT THIS
POINT, EXPECT TO SEE THE MIX BEGIN BETWEEN 04 AND 06Z, AND THE
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW HAPPEN BETWEEN 06 AND 10Z. GIVEN HOW LATE THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AT KRDG AND KABE, IT MAY BEGIN AND STAY
ALL SNOW. GENERALLY EXPECTING THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
TO BE COINCIDENT WITH THE PERIOD OF ALL SNOW.
FRIDAY...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 15Z ACROSS THE TERMINALS, EXCEPT
FOR KACY AND KMIV WHICH MAY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH 18Z. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD END EARLY WITH SNOW MOVING TO THE EAST THROUGH MID-MORNING.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND 15 TO
20 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS UP NEAR 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS
POSSIBLE, WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATER SUNDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, BECOMING NORTHERLY
SUNDAY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER AS LOW PRESSURE
REDEVELOPS OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS COULD BRING A PERIOD
OF RAIN/SNOW TO THE AREA WHICH WOULD REDUCE THE VISIBILITY. THERE IS
LESS CONFIDENCE THOUGH WITH THIS STORM AS ITS EFFECTS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY THE TRACK AND INTENSITY.
&&
.MARINE...
A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND A SCA HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DELAWARE BAY. GALE GUSTS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
OCEAN WATERS FROM THE PRE DAWN HOURS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTS
ABOVE 25 KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DELAWARE BAY. A FEW GUSTS NEAR
GALE FORCE MAY BE POSSIBLE AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, THOUGH SCA
CONDITIONS ON THE COASTAL WATERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TIME HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO LOWER BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS
IN PLACE. HOWEVER, A POTENTIALLY STRONG OCEAN STORM TO OUR SOUTHEAST
LATER SUNDAY COULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD AND WINDS
TO INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN OFFSHORE STORM TRACKS WELL EAST OF OUR
WATERS INTO MONDAY, WHICH COULD ENHANCE SEAS AND WIND GUSTS. ANOTHER
COASTAL STORM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY COULD RESULT IN GALE
FORCE WINDS GUSTS, HOWEVER THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE STORM WHICH CURRENTLY HAS LOWER CONFIDENCE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
101>106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NJZ008>010-
012-015>019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NJZ013-014-
020>027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR DEZ001.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ008-012.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ015-019-
020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/MEOLA/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KEY WEST FL
1059 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016
.DISCUSSION...
SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLOUDY SINCE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN AN
EXTENSIVE AREA OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AFFECTED ALL THE
FLORIDA KEYS. THIS AREA IS NOW EXITING THE UPPER KEYS AND ITS SURROUNDING
WATERS. THE RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IN KEY WEST AS OF 10 PM WAS OF 1.07
INCHES (SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE INFO). A COLD FRONT PUSHED
THROUGH THE KEYS EARLIER THIS EVENING...BRINGING NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 20 MPH AND CONTINUE ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN STEADY IN THE MID 60S. ADDITIONAL
PATCHES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE MARQUESAS
KEYS AND ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE KEYS OVERNIGHT.
.FORECAST...
WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PICKING UP SPEED ACROSS
THE KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...THE COLD FRONT MADE ITS WAY SOUTH OF THE
AREA. WHEN ZOOMING OUT AND ANALYZING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW PRESSURE HAS STARTED TO
DEVELOP EAST OF NORTH FLORIDA OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS LOW WILL
STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST PARALLEL TO THE COAST
OF THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY. FOR THE KEYS...WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WERE LOWERED FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT...AS LOCAL WRF AND HRRR MODELS SUGGESTED THAT THE
MAIN RAINFALL EVENT HAS MOVED OUT OF OUR AREA...WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER
PERIOD OF QUICK SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING. NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WERE NECCESARY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS TURNED FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY TONIGHT AND INCREASED TO NEAR
20 KNOTS...AS REPORTED BY ALL THE AVAILABLE MARINE STATIONS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL
WATERS...AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT
AND ON SUNDAY. AND WITH THAT...SEAS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...PEAKING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT ACROSS BOTH THE KEY WEST
AND MARATHON ISLAND TERMINALS. NORTHWEST CROSSWINDS WINDS HAVE
INCREASED THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THE
EXPECTATION IS FOR WINDS TO REMAIN ELEVATED AND GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.CLIMATE...
MONTH TO DATE IN KEY WEST...2.81 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN AT THE
KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...EXCEEDING THE NORMAL MONTHLY TOTAL
FOR RAINFALL IN FEBRUARY BY 1.32 INCHES. RAINFALL RECORDS IN KEY WEST
DATE BACK TO THE YEAR 1871.
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE.........KN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....FLING
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
923 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016
.UPDATE...
02Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY POTENT UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE RAPIDLY MIGRATING TOWARD THE REGION
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS LOOKED
IMPRESSIVE FOR SOME TIME IN THE FORECAST MODELS...BUT ITS ABILITY
TO TRANSITION THE ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR HEADS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS
SURPRISED THIS FORECASTER. THE KTBW 00Z SOUNDING FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT HAD A PW VALUE OF 0.15" (NEAR RECORD LOW FOR THE
DATE)...WITH JUST ABOUT AS DRY A TROP COLUMN AS WE FIND HERE IN
FLORIDA. THE FORECAST HIGHLIGHTED SHOWERS FOR TODAY GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC FORCING...BUT JUST DID NOT THINK
WE WOULD SEE SUCH A DRAMATIC MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN TO GIVE US
THE RAINFALL EVENT WE SAW. THE ATMOSPHERE CAN CERTAINLY HUMBLE
YOU SOMETIMES...AND TODAY WAS ONE OF THOSE DAYS.
MAIN SURGE OF QG FORCING AND BEST DIFFLUENCE WITH THE UPPER JET
STRUCTURE AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING TO OUR EAST IN
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE THE MOST
CONCENTRATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXIT TOWARD THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
EVEN THOUGH THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL EXIT SOON...THE AMOUNT OF
VORTICITY ADVECTION ALOFT AND LINGERING MOISTURE SUGGESTS WE KEEP
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SCT LIGHT SHOWERS WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. HARD TO BELIEVE...BUT WE ARE SEEING A FEW TICKS OF
LIGHTNING WITH THIS SYSTEM AS FAR BACK AS THE COASTAL WATER OFF
LOUISIANA.
AS THE ENERGY ALOFT BEGINS TO ARRIVE OVER THE BAROCLINIC
ENVIRONMENT OF THE GULF STREAM...SEEING THE FIRST SIGNS OF
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE SE FLORIDA COAST THIS EVENING. THIS LOW
WILL ORGANIZE IN A BIG HURRY LATER TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY
AS IT MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE
UPWARD MOTIONS TO AID THIS LOW DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AT LEAST
PARTIALLY FORCED BY A NEAR TEXTBOOK COUPLING OF THE UPPER JET
STRUCTURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS COAST ON SUNDAY.
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW WILL HELP TO
DRAW THE DEEPER MOISTURE AWAY FROM OUR REGION WITH TIME...BUT WILL
RESULT IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN CONDITIONS BECOMING HAZARDOUS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS...AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BLOW HARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY. THESE WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY OVER LAND AS WELL...BUT WILL BE MAXIMIZED AT THE COAST WITH
THE NW FLOW OFF THE WATER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER CHILLY BY DAWN...WITH THE STEADY NW
WINDS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. CERTAINLY LOOKING AT JACKET
WEATHER FOR MOST OF US IN THE MORNING. SHOULD SEE THE SKIES
QUICKLY BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE COASTAL AREAS FROM PINELLAS COUNTY
SOUTHWARD. THESE COASTAL AREAS MAY HOLD ONTO SOME LOWER STRATOCU
UNTIL MIDDAY AS CAA OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF THE GULF
AND STRONG VORTICITY ALOFT COMBINE TO KEEP THE CLOUDS MIGRATING
ONSHORE. NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT A FEW SPRINKLES MAY FALL OUT OF THESE
CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING AS WELL...AND HAVE ADDED SPRINKLES TO
THE FORECAST. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON....SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FOR ALL
AREAS...WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...AND ANTICIPATE THESE RESTRICTIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE STEADIEST RAIN HAS ENDED FOR THE
TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
THROUGH 08Z...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF KSRQ. LATE TONIGHT...HAVE GONE
OPTIMISTIC AND REMOVED IFR MENTION IN FAVOR OF PREVAILING MVFR
THROUGH DAWN. AFTER SUNRISE...SHOULD SEE CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT AND
HAVE REMOVED ALL RESTRICTIONS BY LATE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT
AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN
OVERNIGHT NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING
SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...WITH WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING
TO ADVISORY LEVELS. ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY BEFORE BRIEFLY
SUBSIDING SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THIS DECREASE IN WINDS
AND SEAS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS THE NEXT SURGE OF WINDS TO ADVISORY
LEVEL ARRIVES OVER THE EASTERN GULF LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 46 57 45 65 / 60 0 0 10
FMY 50 61 44 66 / 100 10 0 10
GIF 45 58 41 67 / 100 10 0 10
SRQ 49 58 45 67 / 70 10 0 10
BKV 42 56 36 66 / 50 0 0 20
SPG 49 57 49 66 / 50 0 0 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
SARASOTA.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT
20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH
TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-TAMPA BAY
WATERS.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...14/MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
859 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016
.DISCUSSION...
...RAIN SHIFTING OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT THEN WINDY/COLDER SUNDAY...
...VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
TONIGHT-SUNDAY...
NOT PLANNING TO MAKE AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. BROAD SURFACE LOW IS STARTING TO FORM ALONG THE
REMNANT INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH THAT WAS NEAR THE TREASURE COAST.
THIS LOW WILL MOVE STEADILY NORTH/NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN AS
VIGOROUS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA SUNDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST RAIN THAT WAS OCCURRING IN
WARM ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THE
COAST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...BUT SOME WRAP AROUND RAIN WILL LINGER A
LITTLE LONGER.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP IN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFIES. EXTENSIVE
LOW CLOUD DECK WILL LINGER WELL INTO SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST AND DEEPER MIXING ENSUES.
THE MOST NOTABLE WEATHER HAZARD BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS. CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION ON SUNDAY...WITH AN ESPECIALLY
COLD POOL AT 500 MB (MINUS 15 TO 25 CELSIUS)...WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
CONDITIONS TO AROUND 35 MPH. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED
AND A STRAIGHT WIND ADVISORY MIGHT NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S TONIGHT EXCEPT AROUND 50 IN
THE SOUTH. THESE LOWS MIGHT ACTUALLY OCCUR AFTER SUNRISE...SO WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT NUMBERS EVEN THOUGH MOS/LAV
GUIDANCE IS A BIT HIGHER THAN OUR FORECAST LOWS. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 DEGREES OVER MOST OF THE AREA. IT WILL FEEL
COLDER SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO THE RATHER STRONG COLD ADVECTION...LACK
OF SUNSHINE AND GUSTY WINDS. WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S WILL LINGER UNTIL LATE MORNING FOR MANY PLACES.
&&
.AVIATION...
LARGE AREA OF RAIN AFFECTING THE AREA ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH/EAST OF INTERSTATE 4. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT BUT LIGHTER RAIN SHOULD LINGER ALONG THE COAST A
LITTLE LONGER. LOW CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FEET AGL BUT
OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL DEEPEN AS IT PULLS AWAY LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS 35 KNOT GUST POTENTIAL WILL BE NEAR
THE 20 NAUTICAL MILE MARK FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...
SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NEAR SHORE AND GALE
WARNING OFFSHORE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT/SUNDAY...
SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING JUST OFFSHORE THE TREASURE COAST THIS
EVENING WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NNE OVERNIGHT. TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL INCREASE WINDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KNOTS OFFSHORE
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 KNOTS. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT
SUNDAY MORNING WITH VERY HAZARDOUS SEA AND WINDY CONDITIONS
OFFSHORE WITH THE GALE WARNING CONTINUING. EXPECT TO TRANSITION
THE GALE TO AN ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS INTO SUNDAY
EVE/NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12-13 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF
STREAM WATERS SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO
JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN
INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LASCODY
IMPACT WX....SHARP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1025 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY. MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
OBSERVATION TRENDS AND THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO
INDICATE NO SIGNIFICANT WINTER IMPACTS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WE ARE
CLOSELY MONITORING TRENDS BECAUSE OF THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT THE MODEL FORECAST OF INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY TRENDS INDICATE A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A
BAROCLINIC LEAF WAS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. RADAR DISPLAYED
RAIN MOVING INTO MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST SECTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WET-BULB COOLING HAS HELPED SUPPORT A LITTLE SLEET IN A FEW
LOCATIONS.
RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR INDICATE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS AND OBSERVATION TRENDS WITH SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SUPPORT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG LIFT AND COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW COULD HELP CAUSE SNOW TO MIX
WITH THE RAIN LATER TONIGHT. THE LATEST RAP TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS
INDICATE RAIN AND MOST SREF MEMBERS ALSO INDICATE RAIN.
BASED ON THE STRONG UPPER SYSTEM THERE IS STILL SOME POSSIBILITY
OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION LEADING TO HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WHICH WOULD LOWER THE FREEZING LEVEL RESULTING IN
MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW AS INDICATED BY SOME SREF MEMBERS AND THE
NAM. HOWEVER...OBSERVATION TRENDS AND THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR
CONTINUE TO INDICATE NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. THE WPC STILL KEEPS
ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WE HAVE HELD OFF
ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WILL CONTINUE LINE OF THOUGHT FROM END OF THE NEAR TERM INTO
SUNDAY. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO BE REASONABLY IN LINE WITH
THE NAM COLDER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
COASTAL LOW. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF MAINLY CHANCE POPS WITH
GENERALLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX FROM CAE EASTWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON SUNDAY. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE INCREASED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
WILL BE POSTED FOR LAKE MARION...ALLOWING LATER SHIFTS TO EXPAND
IF NECESSARY TO OTHER LAKES.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY BUT REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WHERE PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR.
A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT
A DEEP AND EXPANSIVE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DESCEND UPON THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND
INCREASED LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. UPPER LOW OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MID WEEK WITH HIGHS NEARLY 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE 40S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S. UPPER FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE ZONAL
BY THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT WARMING TREND TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
AND CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN OVER THE AREA AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WHILE DEEPENING
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LOW END VFR OR HIGH END MVFR. MOST OF THE RAINFALL IS
CURRENTLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS OF 02Z.
MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT MAKING KOGB MOST LIKELY TO SEE PRECIP OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT OGB/CAE/CUB. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH THAT IF
SNOW FELL IT WOULD MELT WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND
WILL BACK TO NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OFF
THE COAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES MON THRU WED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE NORTH FORK OF THE EDISTO RIVER AT
ORANGEBURG.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SCZ031-
036>038.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
HYDROLOGY..99.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
926 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY. MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
OBSERVATION TRENDS AND THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO
INDICATE NO SIGNIFICANT WINTER IMPACTS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WE ARE
CLOSELY MONITORING TRENDS BECAUSE OF THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT THE MODEL FORECAST OF INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY TRENDS INDICATE A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A
BAROCLINIC LEAF WAS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. RADAR DISPLAYED
RAIN MOVING INTO MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST SECTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WET-BULB COOLING HAS HELPED SUPPORT A LITTLE SLEET IN A FEW
LOCATIONS.
RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR INDICATE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE EXTREME EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS AND OBSERVATION TRENDS WITH SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SUPPORT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG LIFT AND COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW COULD HELP CAUSE SNOW TO MIX
WITH THE RAIN LATER TONIGHT. THE LATEST RAP TIME- HEIGHT DISPLAYS
INDICATE RAIN AND MOST SREF MEMBERS ALSO INDICATE RAIN.
BASED ON THE STRONG UPPER SYSTEM THERE IS STILL SOME POSSIBILITY
OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION LEADING TO HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WHICH WOULD LOWER THE FREEZING LEVEL RESULTING IN
MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW AS INDICATED BY SOME SREF MEMBERS AND THE
NAM. HOWEVER...OBSERVATION TRENDS AND THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR
CONTINUE TO INDICATE NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. THE WPC STILL KEEPS
ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WE HAVE HELD OFF
ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WILL CONTINUE LINE OF THOUGHT FROM END OF THE NEAR TERM INTO
SUNDAY. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO BE REASONABLY IN LINE WITH
THE NAM COLDER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
COASTAL LOW. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF MAINLY CHANCE POPS WITH
GENERALLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX FROM CAE EASTWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON SUNDAY. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE INCREASED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
WILL BE POSTED FOR LAKE MARION...ALLOWING LATER SHIFTS TO EXPAND
IF NECESSARY TO OTHER LAKES.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY BUT REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WHERE PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR.
A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT
A DEEP AND EXPANSIVE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DESCEND UPON THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND
INCREASED LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. UPPER LOW OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MID WEEK WITH HIGHS NEARLY 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE 40S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S. UPPER FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE ZONAL
BY THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT WARMING TREND TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
AND CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN OVER THE AREA AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WHILE DEEPENING
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LOW END VFR OR HIGH END MVFR. MOST OF THE RAINFALL IS
CURRENTLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS OF 02Z.
MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT MAKING KOGB MOST LIKELY TO SEE PRECIP OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT OGB/CAE/CUB. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH THAT IF
SNOW FELL IT WOULD MELT WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND
WILL BACK TO NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OFF
THE COAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES MON THRU WED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE NORTH FORK OF THE EDISTO RIVER AT
ORANGEBURG.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SCZ031-
036>038.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
810 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY. MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
OBSERVATION TRENDS AND THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO
INDICATE NO SIGNIFICANT WINTER IMPACTS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WE ARE
CLOSELY MONITORING TRENDS BECAUSE OF THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT THE MODEL FORECAST OF INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY TRENDS INDICATE A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A
BAROCLINIC LEAF WAS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. RADAR DISPLAYED
RAIN MOVING INTO MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST SECTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WET-BULB COOLING HAS HELPED SUPPORT A LITTLE SLEET IN A FEW
LOCATIONS.
RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR INDICATE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE EXTREME EAST PART OF THE FORECASTAREA
OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS AND OBSERVATION TRENDS WITH SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SUPPORT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG LIFT AND COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW COULD HELP CAUSE SNOW TO MIX
WITH THE RAIN LATER TONIGHT. THE LATEST RAP TIME- HEIGHT DISPLAYS
INDICATE RAIN AND MOST SREF MEMBERS ALSO INDICATE RAIN.
BASED ON THE STRONG UPPER SYSTEM THERE IS STILL SOME POSSIBILITY
OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION LEADING TO HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WHICH WOULD LOWER THE FREEZING LEVEL RESULTING IN
MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW AS INDICATED BY SOME SREF MEMBERS AND THE
NAM. HOWEVER...OBSERVATION TRENDS AND THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR
CONTINUE TO INDICATE NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. THE WPC STILL KEEPS
ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WE HAVE HELD OFF
ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WILL CONTINUE LINE OF THOUGHT FROM END OF THE NEAR TERM INTO
SUNDAY. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO BE REASONABLY IN LINE WITH
THE NAM COLDER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
COASTAL LOW. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF MAINLY CHANCE POPS WITH
GENERALLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX FROM CAE EASTWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON SUNDAY. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE INCREASED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
WILL BE POSTED FOR LAKE MARION...ALLOWING LATER SHIFTS TO EXPAND
IF NECESSARY TO OTHER LAKES.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY BUT REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WHERE PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR.
A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT
A DEEP AND EXPANSIVE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DESCEND UPON THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND
INCREASED LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. UPPER LOW OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MID WEEK WITH HIGHS NEARLY 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE 40S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S. UPPER FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE ZONAL
BY THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT WARMING TREND TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
AND CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN OVER THE AREA AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WHILE DEEPENING
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LOW END VFR OR HIGH END MVFR. SCATTERED LIGHT RAINFALL
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST
CONCENTRATION IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. KOGB WILL BE MOST
LIKELY TO SEE PRECIP OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWER CHANCES FURTHER WEST.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT OGB/CAE/CUB. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH THAT IF SNOW
FELL IT WOULD MELT WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION. PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH SKIES
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND WILL BACK TO
NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OFF THE COAST
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES MON THRU WED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE NORTH FORK OF THE EDISTO RIVER AT
ORANGEBURG.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SCZ031-
036>038.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
HYDROLOGY...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1220 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
AFTER A COLD MORNING...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TOWARDS THE 40 DEGREE
MARK TODAY WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. SO
DID A QUICK REFRESH TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST
RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1007 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
HAVE UPDATED THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST TO REMOVE RAIN
FOR ALL OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DURING THIS TIME SHOW THAT PRECIP WILL BE SNOW
DUE TO COMPLETE LACK OF ANY WARM AIR ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPS BEING
NEAR FREEZING OR COLDER. ALSO TRIED TO DO SOME INITIAL FINE TUNING
OF PRECIP TIMING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 800 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO MAINLY FINE TUNE THE T AND TD GRIDS
THROUGH THE MORNING BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
HIGH IS CLEARING THE SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...
ALSO BRINGING AN END TO SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST.
CLEAR SKIES SPREADING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...WILL SUPPORT AN EXTRA DROP OFF IN TEMPS FOR THE VALLEYS
TOWARD DAWN. AS IT STANDS NOW...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION TO THE UPPER
20S ON THE RIDGES AND LOCATIONS STILL UNDER THE CLOUDS ALONG AND
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND
20 DEGREES ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...CURRENTLY.
THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL TAKE ANOTHER BOTTOMING OUT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TODAY. THIS LEAVES EAST KENTUCKY IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING
TODAY AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT...
MAINLY SOUTHERN STREAM...TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WAVE BECOMES MORE ISOLATED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS IT DIVES TO THE GULF COAST AND STARTS TO
PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS SHOW LIMITED
SEPARATION FROM EACH OTHER AT THIS TIME STEP WITH THE GFS THE
WEAKEST AND CANADIAN A CLOSE MATCH TO THE ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE
NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH ONLY A WEAK STREAM OF ENERGY SET TO DRIFT OVER THE
STATE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND WAS USED FOR THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST...
WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR NEAR TERM DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY UNDER THE CONTROL...A TERM USED LOOSELY...OF WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE. IN FACT...GIVEN SOME LIMITED ENERGY ALOFT AND THE WAVE
PASSING TO THE SOUTH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FOR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THOUGH HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST
GRIDS FOR NOW. WHAT WE WILL HAVE IS MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH READINGS REACHING THE UPPER 40S AND
LOW 50S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR
TODAY...GOOD SUNSHINE...AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...WILL ERASE A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S MOST PLACES
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND FOR T/TD/WIND GRIDS TODAY BEFORE
FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH SATURDAY. DID ADJUST THE MIN TEMPS
A TAD THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT FOR MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW...SINGLE DIGITS...IN LINE
WITH MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH THEY MAY BE A
HAIR TOO LOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD START OFF QUIETLY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO END THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY TOPPING AROUND 50 ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE STEADILY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY EVENING...AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BARRELS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT
THE FIRST PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY MIX WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S. THE PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW COLD AIR TO SPILL QUICKLY
INTO THE REGION. THIS CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES CAUSE THE RAIN TO
TRANSITION QUICKLY TO A RAIN SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW BY LATE
MONDAY EVENING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION AND TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND FREEZING. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PERIODS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN RAIN MAY MIX
WITH THE SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THE LAST BIT OF SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO DRY AND
COLD.
THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGHS ON
THAT DAY ARE ONLY FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS ON THAT DAY FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE
COLDEST NIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE MERCURY WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER TEENS BOTH NIGHTS. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE LOWS IN
THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JVM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1030 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
AFTER A COLD MORNING...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TOWARDS THE 40 DEGREE
MARK TODAY WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. SO
DID A QUICK REFRESH TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST
RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1007 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
HAVE UPDATED THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST TO REMOVE RAIN
FOR ALL OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DURING THIS TIME SHOW THAT PRECIP WILL BE SNOW
DUE TO COMPLETE LACK OF ANY WARM AIR ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPS BEING
NEAR FREEZING OR COLDER. ALSO TRIED TO DO SOME INITIAL FINE TUNING
OF PRECIP TIMING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 800 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO MAINLY FINE TUNE THE T AND TD GRIDS
THROUGH THE MORNING BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
HIGH IS CLEARING THE SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...
ALSO BRINGING AN END TO SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST.
CLEAR SKIES SPREADING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...WILL SUPPORT AN EXTRA DROP OFF IN TEMPS FOR THE VALLEYS
TOWARD DAWN. AS IT STANDS NOW...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION TO THE UPPER
20S ON THE RIDGES AND LOCATIONS STILL UNDER THE CLOUDS ALONG AND
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND
20 DEGREES ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...CURRENTLY.
THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL TAKE ANOTHER BOTTOMING OUT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TODAY. THIS LEAVES EAST KENTUCKY IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING
TODAY AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT...
MAINLY SOUTHERN STREAM...TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WAVE BECOMES MORE ISOLATED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS IT DIVES TO THE GULF COAST AND STARTS TO
PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS SHOW LIMITED
SEPARATION FROM EACH OTHER AT THIS TIME STEP WITH THE GFS THE
WEAKEST AND CANADIAN A CLOSE MATCH TO THE ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE
NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH ONLY A WEAK STREAM OF ENERGY SET TO DRIFT OVER THE
STATE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND WAS USED FOR THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST...
WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR NEAR TERM DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY UNDER THE CONTROL...A TERM USED LOOSELY...OF WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE. IN FACT...GIVEN SOME LIMITED ENERGY ALOFT AND THE WAVE
PASSING TO THE SOUTH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FOR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THOUGH HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST
GRIDS FOR NOW. WHAT WE WILL HAVE IS MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH READINGS REACHING THE UPPER 40S AND
LOW 50S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR
TODAY...GOOD SUNSHINE...AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...WILL ERASE A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S MOST PLACES
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND FOR T/TD/WIND GRIDS TODAY BEFORE
FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH SATURDAY. DID ADJUST THE MIN TEMPS
A TAD THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT FOR MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW...SINGLE DIGITS...IN LINE
WITH MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH THEY MAY BE A
HAIR TOO LOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD START OFF QUIETLY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO END THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY TOPPING AROUND 50 ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE STEADILY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY EVENING...AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BARRELS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT
THE FIRST PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY MIX WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S. THE PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW COLD AIR TO SPILL QUICKLY
INTO THE REGION. THIS CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES CAUSE THE RAIN TO
TRANSITION QUICKLY TO A RAIN SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW BY LATE
MONDAY EVENING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION AND TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND FREEZING. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PERIODS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN RAIN MAY MIX
WITH THE SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THE LAST BIT OF SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO DRY AND
COLD.
THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGHS ON
THAT DAY ARE ONLY FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS ON THAT DAY FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE
COLDEST NIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE MERCURY WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER TEENS BOTH NIGHTS. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE LOWS IN
THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
OVER THE AREA.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1007 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
HAVE UPDATED THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST TO REMOVE RAIN
FOR ALL OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DURING THIS TIME SHOW THAT PRECIP WILL BE SNOW
DUE TO COMPLETE LACK OF ANY WARM AIR ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPS BEING
NEAR FREEZING OR COLDER. ALSO TRIED TO DO SOME INITIAL FINE TUNING
OF PRECIP TIMING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 800 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO MAINLY FINE TUNE THE T AND TD GRIDS
THROUGH THE MORNING BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
HIGH IS CLEARING THE SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...
ALSO BRINGING AN END TO SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST.
CLEAR SKIES SPREADING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...WILL SUPPORT AN EXTRA DROP OFF IN TEMPS FOR THE VALLEYS
TOWARD DAWN. AS IT STANDS NOW...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION TO THE UPPER
20S ON THE RIDGES AND LOCATIONS STILL UNDER THE CLOUDS ALONG AND
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND
20 DEGREES ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...CURRENTLY.
THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL TAKE ANOTHER BOTTOMING OUT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TODAY. THIS LEAVES EAST KENTUCKY IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING
TODAY AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT...
MAINLY SOUTHERN STREAM...TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WAVE BECOMES MORE ISOLATED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS IT DIVES TO THE GULF COAST AND STARTS TO
PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS SHOW LIMITED
SEPARATION FROM EACH OTHER AT THIS TIME STEP WITH THE GFS THE
WEAKEST AND CANADIAN A CLOSE MATCH TO THE ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE
NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH ONLY A WEAK STREAM OF ENERGY SET TO DRIFT OVER THE
STATE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND WAS USED FOR THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST...
WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR NEAR TERM DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY UNDER THE CONTROL...A TERM USED LOOSELY...OF WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE. IN FACT...GIVEN SOME LIMITED ENERGY ALOFT AND THE WAVE
PASSING TO THE SOUTH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FOR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THOUGH HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST
GRIDS FOR NOW. WHAT WE WILL HAVE IS MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH READINGS REACHING THE UPPER 40S AND
LOW 50S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR
TODAY...GOOD SUNSHINE...AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...WILL ERASE A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S MOST PLACES
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND FOR T/TD/WIND GRIDS TODAY BEFORE
FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH SATURDAY. DID ADJUST THE MIN TEMPS
A TAD THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT FOR MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW...SINGLE DIGITS...IN LINE
WITH MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH THEY MAY BE A
HAIR TOO LOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD START OFF QUIETLY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO END THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY TOPPING AROUND 50 ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE STEADILY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY EVENING...AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BARRELS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT
THE FIRST PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY MIX WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S. THE PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW COLD AIR TO SPILL QUICKLY
INTO THE REGION. THIS CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES CAUSE THE RAIN TO
TRANSITION QUICKLY TO A RAIN SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW BY LATE
MONDAY EVENING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION AND TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND FREEZING. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PERIODS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN RAIN MAY MIX
WITH THE SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THE LAST BIT OF SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO DRY AND
COLD.
THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGHS ON
THAT DAY ARE ONLY FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS ON THAT DAY FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE
COLDEST NIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE MERCURY WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER TEENS BOTH NIGHTS. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE LOWS IN
THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
OVER THE AREA.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL/GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
800 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 800 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO MAINLY FINE TUNE THE T AND TD GRIDS
THROUGH THE MORNING BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
HIGH IS CLEARING THE SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...
ALSO BRINGING AN END TO SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST.
CLEAR SKIES SPREADING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...WILL SUPPORT AN EXTRA DROP OFF IN TEMPS FOR THE VALLEYS
TOWARD DAWN. AS IT STANDS NOW...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION TO THE UPPER
20S ON THE RIDGES AND LOCATIONS STILL UNDER THE CLOUDS ALONG AND
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND
20 DEGREES ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...CURRENTLY.
THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL TAKE ANOTHER BOTTOMING OUT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TODAY. THIS LEAVES EAST KENTUCKY IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING
TODAY AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT...
MAINLY SOUTHERN STREAM...TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WAVE BECOMES MORE ISOLATED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS IT DIVES TO THE GULF COAST AND STARTS TO
PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS SHOW LIMITED
SEPARATION FROM EACH OTHER AT THIS TIME STEP WITH THE GFS THE
WEAKEST AND CANADIAN A CLOSE MATCH TO THE ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE
NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH ONLY A WEAK STREAM OF ENERGY SET TO DRIFT OVER THE
STATE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND WAS USED FOR THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST...
WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR NEAR TERM DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY UNDER THE CONTROL...A TERM USED LOOSELY...OF WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE. IN FACT...GIVEN SOME LIMITED ENERGY ALOFT AND THE WAVE
PASSING TO THE SOUTH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FOR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THOUGH HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST
GRIDS FOR NOW. WHAT WE WILL HAVE IS MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH READINGS REACHING THE UPPER 40S AND
LOW 50S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR
TODAY...GOOD SUNSHINE...AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...WILL ERASE A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S MOST PLACES
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND FOR T/TD/WIND GRIDS TODAY BEFORE
FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH SATURDAY. DID ADJUST THE MIN TEMPS
A TAD THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT FOR MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW...SINGLE DIGITS...IN LINE
WITH MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH THEY MAY BE A
HAIR TOO LOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD START OFF QUIETLY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO END THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY TOPPING AROUND 50 ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE STEADILY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY EVENING...AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BARRELS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT
THE FIRST PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY MIX WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S. THE PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW COLD AIR TO SPILL QUICKLY
INTO THE REGION. THIS CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES CAUSE THE RAIN TO
TRANSITION QUICKLY TO A RAIN SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW BY LATE
MONDAY EVENING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION AND TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND FREEZING. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PERIODS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN RAIN MAY MIX
WITH THE SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THE LAST BIT OF SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO DRY AND
COLD.
THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGHS ON
THAT DAY ARE ONLY FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS ON THAT DAY FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE
COLDEST NIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE MERCURY WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER TEENS BOTH NIGHTS. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE LOWS IN
THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
OVER THE AREA.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
347 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
HIGH IS CLEARING THE SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...
ALSO BRINGING AN END TO SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST.
CLEAR SKIES SPREADING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...WILL SUPPORT AN EXTRA DROP OFF IN TEMPS FOR THE VALLEYS
TOWARD DAWN. AS IT STANDS NOW...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION TO THE UPPER
20S ON THE RIDGES AND LOCATIONS STILL UNDER THE CLOUDS ALONG AND
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND
20 DEGREES ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...CURRENTLY.
THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL TAKE ANOTHER BOTTOMING OUT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TODAY. THIS LEAVES EAST KENTUCKY IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING
TODAY AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT...
MAINLY SOUTHERN STREAM...TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WAVE BECOMES MORE ISOLATED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS IT DIVES TO THE GULF COAST AND STARTS TO
PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS SHOW LIMITED
SEPARATION FROM EACH OTHER AT THIS TIME STEP WITH THE GFS THE
WEAKEST AND CANADIAN A CLOSE MATCH TO THE ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE
NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH ONLY A WEAK STREAM OF ENERGY SET TO DRIFT OVER THE
STATE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND WAS USED FOR THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST...
WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR NEAR TERM DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY UNDER THE CONTROL...A TERM USED LOOSELY...OF WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE. IN FACT...GIVEN SOME LIMITED ENERGY ALOFT AND THE WAVE
PASSING TO THE SOUTH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FOR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THOUGH HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST
GRIDS FOR NOW. WHAT WE WILL HAVE IS MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH READINGS REACHING THE UPPER 40S AND
LOW 50S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR
TODAY...GOOD SUNSHINE...AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...WILL ERASE A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S MOST PLACES
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND FOR T/TD/WIND GRIDS TODAY BEFORE
FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH SATURDAY. DID ADJUST THE MIN TEMPS
A TAD THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT FOR MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW...SINGLE DIGITS...IN LINE
WITH MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH THEY MAY BE A
HAIR TOO LOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD START OFF QUIETLY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO END THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY TOPPING AROUND 50 ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE STEADILY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY EVENING...AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BARRELS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT
THE FIRST PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY MIX WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S. THE PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW COLD AIR TO SPILL QUICKLY
INTO THE REGION. THIS CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES CAUSE THE RAIN TO
TRANSITION QUICKLY TO A RAIN SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW BY LATE
MONDAY EVENING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION AND TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND FREEZING. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PERIODS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN RAIN MAY MIX
WITH THE SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THE LAST BIT OF SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKYEARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO DRY AND COLD.
THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGHS ON
THAT DAY ARE ONLY FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS ON THAT DAY FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE
COLDEST NIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE MERCURY WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER TEENS BOTH NIGHTS. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE LOWS IN
THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
A DECK OF 4-5KFT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HOLD ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE FROM
THESE NEAR THE VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS. THIS ALL
CLEARS OFF BY DAWN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVALENT THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BY DAWN...CONTINUING THAT WAY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY UNDER WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...KAS/GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
300 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
HIGH IS CLEARING THE SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...
ALSO BRINGING AN END TO SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST.
CLEAR SKIES SPREADING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...WILL SUPPORT AN EXTRA DROP OFF IN TEMPS FOR THE VALLEYS
TOWARD DAWN. AS IT STANDS NOW...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION TO THE UPPER
20S ON THE RIDGES AND LOCATIONS STILL UNDER THE CLOUDS ALONG AND
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND
20 DEGREES ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...CURRENTLY.
THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL TAKE ANOTHER BOTTOMING OUT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TODAY. THIS LEAVES EAST KENTUCKY IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING
TODAY AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT...
MAINLY SOUTHERN STREAM...TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WAVE BECOMES MORE ISOLATED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS IT DIVES TO THE GULF COAST AND STARTS TO
PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS SHOW LIMITED
SEPARATION FROM EACH OTHER AT THIS TIME STEP WITH THE GFS THE
WEAKEST AND CANADIAN A CLOSE MATCH TO THE ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE
NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH ONLY A WEAK STREAM OF ENERGY SET TO DRIFT OVER THE
STATE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND WAS USED FOR THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST...
WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR NEAR TERM DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY UNDER THE CONTROL...A TERM USED LOOSELY...OF WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE. IN FACT...GIVEN SOME LIMITED ENERGY ALOFT AND THE WAVE
PASSING TO THE SOUTH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FOR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THOUGH HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST
GRIDS FOR NOW. WHAT WE WILL HAVE IS MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH READINGS REACHING THE UPPER 40S AND
LOW 50S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR
TODAY...GOOD SUNSHINE...AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...WILL ERASE A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S MOST PLACES
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND FOR T/TD/WIND GRIDS TODAY BEFORE
FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH SATURDAY. DID ADJUST THE MIN TEMPS
A TAD THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT FOR MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW...SINGLE DIGITS...IN LINE
WITH MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH THEY MAY BE A
HAIR TOO LOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF TRANSITION...WITH SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES GIVING WAY TO READINGS MUCH BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS BY WHILE CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH
DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...BUT
TRIGGERING STRONG SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE. OUR IMPACT
WILL COME FROM A TROUGH DESCENDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND
BECOMING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK. ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR LOCAL
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A DEEP MOIST LAYER UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF LIGHT PRECIP AT TIMES. THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN EARLY ON AS THE
AIR MASS TRANSITIONS...BUT FROM LATE MONDAY ON...IT SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. MOST AREAS WILL PROBABLY SEE
ACCUMULATION AT SOME POINT...BUT IT IS LIKELY TO BE OF THE
NUISANCE VARIETY. THE BEST CHANCE AT MORE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE STATE.
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS START TO SHOW UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE UPPER TROUGH MORE
STRONGLY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS...GFS
ENSEMBLE...AND THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF. NOT LEANING TO THE
COLDER NEW ECMWF SCENARIO AT THIS POINT...BEING THAT IT DOES NOT
HAVE MUCH OTHER SUPPORT. HAVE ONLY GIVEN IT LIGHT WEIGHTING IN THE
NEW FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
A DECK OF 4-5KFT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HOLD ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE FROM
THESE NEAR THE VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS. THIS ALL
CLEARS OFF BY DAWN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVALENT THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BY DAWN...CONTINUING THAT WAY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY UNDER WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS/GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
949 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT...THEN INTENSIFIES
WHILE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH WAS SLOWLY LIFTING NE OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AS THE
COASTAL TROUGH WAS BECOMING SHARPER OFF THE CAROLINA COAST FROM
HATTERAS SOUTH. THE SURFACE LOW WAS STARTING TO DEEPEN OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST. THE SHARPENING COASTAL TROUGH HAS HELPED TO
INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN SC AND THIS LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST NC. MANY OF THE HIGH RES MODELS INCLUDING
THE HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS THAN THE SYNOPTIC
MODELS. APPEARS AS THOUGH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIFT RAPIDLY
NORTH INTO NC BUT THEN SLOW AS IT RUNS INTO THE DRIER SFC HIGH
OVER EASTERN VA. THIS SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY LIMITED TO
NORTHEAST NC AND SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS DURING THE PRE AND POST
DAWN HOURS. BASED ON TRENDS IN THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR NORTHEAST NC AND SOUTHEAST VA OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TEMPERATURES AS THE PRECIP MOVES
NORTH, BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THE CLOUD SHIELD AHEAD OF THE RAIN
IS PROMOTING AN INCREASE IN TEMPS KEEPING THINGS ABOVE FREEZING.
LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF NORTHEAST NC AND SOUTHEAST VA REMAIN DRY.
CLOUDS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME PUSHING INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL VA SO
WITH MORE CLEAR SKIES INLAND STILL EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER20S INLAND AND EASTERN SHORE WITH MID 30S AND EVEN SOME
UPPER 30S IN AREAS OF CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY TO SUNDAY / SUNDAY NIGHTS FCST WILL BE THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST (ALONG THE GULF STREAM WALL) AND JUST
HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE PCPN SHIELD CAN GET AS THE STORM
RAPIDLY DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NE. LATEST HIGH RES MODELS BRING
MEASURABLE PRECIP BACK ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE TIDEWATER AND
SOME AS FAR WEST AS THE I95 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF RICHMOND. THAT SAID
THE NAM/GFS KEEPS MEASURABLE PCPN (RAIN) CONFINED TO THE COAST. A
50 MILE DIFFERENCE IN STORM TRACK (EITHER DIRECTION) WOULD MAKE
FOR A DIFFERENT SCENARIO.
EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST WITH NE-N WINDS INCREASING
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED 20-30 MPH ALONG DELMARVA AND
25-35 MPH WITH 40-50 MPH GUSTS FROM VA BEACH ON SOUTH. HIGHS TEMPS 45-50
COOLEST ALONG THE COASTAL AND WARMEST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE SOME
PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE.
LTST DATA SUPPORTS ENOUGH COLD AIR WHEN COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL
WRAP AROUND MSTR FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LOWER MD ERN
SHORE BEFORE PCPN ENDS AROUND 12Z MON (NO ACCUMULATION).
OTHERWISE...KEPT RAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS. DRY WEST. LOWS
SUN NIGHT UPPER 20S- LOWER 30S..EXCEPT M30S SERN COASTAL AREAS.
12Z DATA SUPPORTS A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING OCEAN
LOW MON MORNING. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW MON AFTERNOON
WITH ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE MOISTURE TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AFTER 18Z. THUS...KEPT MON MORN DRY BUT MAINTAINED CHC POPS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILES WARM ENOUGH FOR THIS PCPN TO BE
RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS MON 45-50.
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEEPENS AS IT EXITS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE FROM YET ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM PROGGED TO DIVE SE ACROSS THE REGION TUE. THIS TO
CARVE OUT A RATHER DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN US. CAA ALONG WITH
FALLING THICKNESSES RESULTS IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS MIXING WITH THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE MORNING. LOWS MON
NIGHT 30-35. SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMLS PSBL (<1 INCH) ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT MAINLY NW OF RIC WHERE LIKELY POPS WILL BE. A
DUSTING/COATING PSBL AS FAR SOUTH AS A FVX- RIC-SBY LINE. WENT
WITH MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS TUE DUE TO THE COLD AIR
ALOFT DESPITE HIGHS IN THE M-U30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NE CONUS THRU
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH MAY SPARK ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FA TUES NIGHT AND WED. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHC POPS. DRY WX
IS GENERALLY EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WED-SAT MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS THRU
THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TAF SITES WITH VFR CONDS AND ASSOCIATED
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR
THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WILL MOVE OFF THE GA/SC COAST SUNDAY WHERE
IT WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS LOWERING AT ORF/ECG SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN MAY
DEVELOP BY 18Z AT ECG. 25-30KT WINDS GUSTS EXPECTED SUN AFTN/EVNG
AT ORF/ECG AS THE DEEPENING LOW CAUSES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTEN OVER THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A SLGT CHC FOR PCPN AT SBY SUNDAY NIGHT.
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR AND MAY BRIEFLY GO
TO IFR SUNDAY EVENING AT ORF/ECG WHERE N/NE WINDS MAY GUST TO
AROUND 30 KNOTS. LOCATIONS THAT REMAIN DRY WILL REMAIN VFR.
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE INDICATED FOR THE AREA
ESPECIALLY FOR RIC/SBY. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDS MAY OCCUR DURING THIS
PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING ROUGH WEATHER
BACK TO THE MARINE AREA ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE BOMBS OFF THE NC
COAST BY LATE SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY HEADS NE AND WELL OUT TO SEA ON
MONDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A QUICK AND SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN WINDS/SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING THRU SUNDAY EVENING...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA THRU THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GALE WATCH
HAD BEEN UP GRADED TO GALE WARNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND...CURRITUCK SOUND...AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY.
SINCE START TIME OF GALE CONDITIONS IS NOW INSIDE 24 HRS WENT AHEAD
AND BEGAN GALE WARNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR GUSTS UP TO 40-45 KT
(HIGHEST SOUTHERNMOST WATERS). SOLID SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE AREA AS WELL...AND THUS HAVE
RAISED SCA FLAGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE AREA EXCEPT THE
RIVERS (THE LOWER JAMES IS IN THE SCA). HAVE SEAS INCREASING TO 8-14
FT (HIGHEST SOUTH) BY SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR SHORE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 8+ FT FROM VA BEACH SOUTH SO HAVE ALSO ISSUED HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN BEACHES. HAVE WAVES REACHING 5-6 FT AT THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY LATE SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING MONDAY
MORNING...BUT SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...AND SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR
DETAILS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
VIRGINIA BEACH AND COASTAL CURRITUCK COUNTY FOR SUN AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. 30 KT NE/NNE WINDS(~40KT GUSTS) WILL BUILD SEAS
TO 9-10FT NEARSHORE. HIGH SEAS AND PROLONGED NE FLOW MAY CAUSE
BEACH EROSION AND POSSIBLY SOME DUNE EROSION. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE DURING HIGH
TIDES. EXPECT COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES A FEW HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER
THE HIGH TIDES BETWEEN 7-8PM SUNDAY AND 7-8AM MONDAY.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
NCZ102.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY
FOR NCZ102.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
VAZ098.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY
FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ631-632-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ650-652.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR/JAO
SHORT TERM...MPR/JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM/TMG
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
907 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016
UPGRADED THE BLIZZARD WATCHES TO BLIZZARD WARNINGS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. SNOW DEPTH AND WHERE RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING THIS EVENING
PLAYED A LARGE ROLE IN DETERMINING WHICH COUNTIES TO UPGRADE TO
BLIZZARD WARNINGS VERSUS WINTER STORM WARNINGS. CURRENT SNOW DEPTH
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IS AMPLE FOLLOWING THE WINTER STORM EARLIER
THIS WEEK. IN FACT...MANY AREAS HAVE GREATER THAN 8 INCHES. THESE
AREAS HAVE ALSO REMAINED COOLER TODAY AND VERY LITTLE RAIN HAS
FALLEN. BY ALL ACCOUNTS THE SNOW IS ABLE TO BLOW AROUND...
ESPECIALLY WITH GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 MPH.
CONTRAST THAT WITH WEST CENTRAL MN WHICH LARGELY MISSED
OUT ON THE LAST WINTER STORM...THEY HAVE HAD ON AND OFF RAIN ALL
EVENING...AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S THIS
EVENING. SNOW DEPTH THERE IS MORE VARIABLE...RANGING FROM ZERO IN
PLACES TO 6 OR 7 INCHES IN OTHERS. IT IS UNLIKELY DESPITE 50 OR 55
MPH WIND GUSTS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW THAT WIDESPREAD WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. SEVERAL CALLS AROUND THE AREA ALSO
POINTED OUT THE SNOW IS DENSE AND WET. CANNOT RULE OUT POCKETS OF
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...BUT DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR A
BLIZZARD WARNING THERE. VERY STRONG WINDS AND LIGHT SNOW STILL
NECESSITATED SOME TYPE OF WARNING. IF MORE SNOW FALLS ALLOWING
VISIBILITIES TO BE REDUCED TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS IN SEVERAL
PLACES...THEN WE MAY NEED TO UPGRADE THOSE LOCATIONS TO A
BLIZZARD WARNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016
A STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS EVIDENT ACROSS MONTANA AND THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS AFTN AS PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AHEAD OF
THIS SHORT WAVE...BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS ND/SD...AND
MOVED AS FAR EAST AS WC MN. REGIONAL OBS HAVE ALSO REPORTED
SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN WITH THE RADAR ECHOES. SOME OF THE OBS HAD EVEN
RECORDED A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVED ACROSS
THE AREA.
DUE TO THE FACT THAT OBS ARE REPORTING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND
THE LATEST RAP HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION...HAVE UPDATED WX GRIDS TO INCORPORATE LIKELY POPS IN
WC MN/CENTRAL MN DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING TIME FRAME. AS THE
LIGHT RAIN MOVES EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MN DURING THE EVENING...SFC
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ICY CONDS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. AS THIS
AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN AND WC WI...TEMPS
ALOFT ARE COLD ENOUGH TO HAD A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW.
DUE TO A PERSISTENT SW/WEST FLOW COMING FROM THE DAKOTAS WHERE
TODAYS TEMPS WERE IN THE 40S...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FALLING TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH MANY AREAS HAVING STEADY TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SUNDAY/S WX IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN/SW/SC MN FOR A TRUE BLIZZARD TO FORM. TODAYS
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH 40S ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE HAVE
CREATED A DENSER SNOWPACK /LESS LIKELY TO BLOW AROUND/. SOME AREAS
IN WC MN HAVE EVEN LOST MOST OF THEIR SNOWPACK...SO ANY BLOWING SNOW
WILL NEED TO BE FROM NEW SNOW SUNDAY AFTN. THEREFORE...DUE TO
PROBLEMS RELATED TO GENERATING BLOWING SNOW...THE BLIZZARD WATCH
WILL CONTINUE. FURTHER TO THE EAST WHERE A BETTER CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED AND THE SNOWPACK IS DEEPER...A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY AFTN THRU MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING AS TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO FALL FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE STATE BY THE AFTN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016
LONGER TERM CONCERN REMAINS BLIZZARD POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
WE STILL ANTICIPATE STRONG WINDS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS INTO MONDAY MORNING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS TO THE EAST OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. BUFKIT PROFILES OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH SHOWING MAX GUST
POTENTIALS OF 45-50 KTS. LARGE DGZ ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND
EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS OVERALL. THE HIGHER SNOW FALL
POTENTIAL OF 2-3 INCHES OVER THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH MONDAY
CWA. THE MAIN LIMITING SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL REMAINS
WARMER AIR TODAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING SOME SETTLING TO THE
EXISTING SNOW PACK...HOW WIDESPREAD THE NEW SNOW WILL BE AND ONLY
LIMITED SNOW FALL OVER WEST CENTRAL MN FROM THE FEB 2-3 EVENT.
THE BLOWING SNOW MODEL INDICATES IF SNOW IS REALIZED...WE WOULD
LIKELY SEE THE GROUND BLIZZARD ACROSS THE CURRENT BLIZZARD WATCH
AREA. ALSO...THE LATEST CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE STILL WAS INDICATING
A GREATER THAN 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF 2-3 HR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
BEING REALIZE AS WELL.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
THE LONG TERM MODELS WITH THE CHANCE OF A WEAK CLIPPER/WAA
ADVECTION PATTERN MOVING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR
NOW. THE OTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW MOVES IN WITH ANOTHER WEAK
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD
REMAIN DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK. THERE ARE SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016
A COUPLE BATCHES OF RAIN...ONE FROM REDWOOD FALLS TO ST CLOUD AND
THE OTHER ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL WORK EAST THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. A COUPLE SLEET
PELLETS MAY ACCOMPANY THE RAIN. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY STRONGER WINDS AND SHOW
SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOLLOWING THE FRONT.
KMSP...BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL PUSH THROUGH BETWEEN 02-04Z WITH
SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE
ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT. VFR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS RAIN.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...CHC MVFR/IFR/-SN. WINDY. BLSN POSSIBLE. WIND NW 20G35KT.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
MNZ065>067-073>076-082>085-091>093.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
MNZ041-047-048-054>058-064.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
MNZ042>045-049-050.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
MNZ051>053-059>063-068>070-077-078.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
638 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016
A STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS EVIDENT ACROSS MONTANA AND THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS AFTN AS PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AHEAD OF
THIS SHORT WAVE...BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS ND/SD...AND
MOVED AS FAR EAST AS WC MN. REGIONAL OBS HAVE ALSO REPORTED
SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN WITH THE RADAR ECHOES. SOME OF THE OBS HAD EVEN
RECORDED A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVED ACROSS
THE AREA.
DUE TO THE FACT THAT OBS ARE REPORTING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND
THE LATEST RAP HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION...HAVE UPDATED WX GRIDS TO INCORPORATE LIKELY POPS IN
WC MN/CENTRAL MN DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING TIME FRAME. AS THE
LIGHT RAIN MOVES EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MN DURING THE EVENING...SFC
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ICY CONDS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. AS THIS
AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN AND WC WI...TEMPS
ALOFT ARE COLD ENOUGH TO HAD A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW.
DUE TO A PERSISTENT SW/WEST FLOW COMING FROM THE DAKOTAS WHERE
TODAYS TEMPS WERE IN THE 40S...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FALLING TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH MANY AREAS HAVING STEADY TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SUNDAY/S WX IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN/SW/SC MN FOR A TRUE BLIZZARD TO FORM. TODAYS
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH 40S ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE HAVE
CREATED A DENSER SNOWPACK /LESS LIKELY TO BLOW AROUND/. SOME AREAS
IN WC MN HAVE EVEN LOST MOST OF THEIR SNOWPACK...SO ANY BLOWING SNOW
WILL NEED TO BE FROM NEW SNOW SUNDAY AFTN. THEREFORE...DUE TO
PROBLEMS RELATED TO GENERATING BLOWING SNOW...THE BLIZZARD WATCH
WILL CONTINUE. FURTHER TO THE EAST WHERE A BETTER CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED AND THE SNOWPACK IS DEEPER...A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY AFTN THRU MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING AS TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO FALL FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE STATE BY THE AFTN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016
LONGER TERM CONCERN REMAINS BLIZZARD POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
WE STILL ANTICIPATE STRONG WINDS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS INTO MONDAY MORNING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS TO THE EAST OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. BUFKIT PROFILES OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH SHOWING MAX GUST
POTENTIALS OF 45-50 KTS. LARGE DGZ ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND
EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS OVERALL. THE HIGHER SNOW FALL
POTENTIAL OF 2-3 INCHES OVER THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH MONDAY
CWA. THE MAIN LIMITING SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL REMAINS
WARMER AIR TODAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING SOME SETTLING TO THE
EXISTING SNOW PACK...HOW WIDESPREAD THE NEW SNOW WILL BE AND ONLY
LIMITED SNOW FALL OVER WEST CENTRAL MN FROM THE FEB 2-3 EVENT.
THE BLOWING SNOW MODEL INDICATES IF SNOW IS REALIZED...WE WOULD
LIKELY SEE THE GROUND BLIZZARD ACROSS THE CURRENT BLIZZARD WATCH
AREA. ALSO...THE LATEST CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE STILL WAS INDICATING
A GREATER THAN 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF 2-3 HR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
BEING REALIZE AS WELL.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
THE LONG TERM MODELS WITH THE CHANCE OF A WEAK CLIPPER/WAA
ADVECTION PATTERN MOVING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR
NOW. THE OTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW MOVES IN WITH ANOTHER WEAK
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD
REMAIN DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK. THERE ARE SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTER HALF OF THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016
A COUPLE BATCHES OF RAIN...ONE FROM REDWOOD FALLS TO ST CLOUD AND
THE OTHER ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL WORK EAST THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. A COUPLE SLEET
PELLETS MAY ACCOMPANY THE RAIN. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY STRONGER WINDS AND SHOW
SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOLLOWING THE FRONT.
KMSP...BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL PUSH THROUGH BETWEEN 02-04Z WITH
SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE
ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT. VFR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS RAIN.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...CHC MVFR/IFR/-SN. WINDY. BLSN POSSIBLE. WIND NW 20G35KT.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
MNZ066-067-074>076-082>085-091>093.
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
MNZ041-047-048-054>058-064-065-073.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
MNZ042>045-049-050.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
MNZ051>053-059>063-068>070-077-078.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
258 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016
A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM AN EQUALLY WEAK SFC LOW
CENTER IN NW MN...SWWD INTO EASTERN SD AT 20Z. AHEAD OF THESE
FEATURES...A PARTLY SUNNY SKY COVERED THE FORECAST AREA. A PIECE OF
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT WAS DRIFTING ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. IT HAS PROVIDED SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES IN
THIS AREA. THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW
ONTARIO BY THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHERN MN. NAM/GFS/ECMWF QPF FIELDS ARE WAY OVERDONE...BUT EVEN
SHORT TERM HIRES MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
AFFECT THE ARROWHEAD BEFORE 00Z. HAVE SOME SMALL POPS IN PLACE OVER
THE ARROWHEAD.
THE UPPER TROF MOVES INTO EASTERN WI BY 06Z AS THE SFC LOW REACHES
NE LAKE SUPERIOR AND A SFC TROF REACHES NW WI. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AS WELL AS IN NORTH
CENTRAL WI. SOME FLURRIES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN NW WI AND
HAVE A MENTION. THE SFC TROF EXITS NW WI BY 12Z SATURDAY AS WELL AS
THE UPPER TROF. LINGERED SOME SMALL POPS IN NORTH CENTRAL WI AS
THESE FEATURES PASS BY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM.
ON SATURDAY...THE NAM IS WAY TOO FAST WITH THE DEVELOPMENT/SPREADING
OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO
REACH INTO NE MN BY 18Z. PREFER THE GFS20/ECMWF WHICH KEEP THE AREA
FREE OF SNOW BEFORE 18Z. THIS IS DUE TO A FAIRLY DRY COLUMN. BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A DIGGING UPPER TROF REACHES THE DAKOTAS. THIS
WILL COMBINE WITH THE WARM FRONT TO BRING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT
SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF
THE IRON RANGE TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. MAINTAINED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST POPS/WEATHER AS A RESULT. LITTLE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE...AND WILL BE WRUNG OUT. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016
A CANADIAN CLIPPER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING ITS
TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PCPN...SO INCREASED PCPN CHANCES. THE
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SO THE INITIAL SNOW WILL BE LIMITED NORTH AND EAST OF
THE WARM FRONT...AFFECTING ONLY THE ARROWHEAD. THE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY...AND SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THE GUNFLINT TRAIL AND GRAND PORTAGE AREA
COULD GET 1 TO 2 INCHES SATURDAY EVENING...AND THEN THE WHOLE
NORTHLAND SHOULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
THE PASSING OF THE LOW. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW SUNDAY...AND WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS AND FALLING SNOW
WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO PERIODS OF LOW VISIBILITY...PARTICULARLY
IN MORE OPEN AREAS.
ARCTIC AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTHLAND MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING CLIPPER. THERE COULD BE LINGERING SNOW FLURRIES...AND THE
COLD NW FLOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
DOWNWIND OVER NW WISCONSIN.
CLEARER SKIES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHEN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILD INTO THE REGION. THE
CONTINUED NORTHERLY ARCTIC FLOW COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OVER NW WISCONSIN WELL THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY IN
THE LOWER 30S...BUT THERE WILL BE A 15 TO 20 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP
INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER. THE TEMPERATURES DROP A
LITTLE MORE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE RECOVERY
THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
INDICATING ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST COMING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016
SUBTLE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TODAY...FROM
WEST TO EAST...AND LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VERY
LIGHT SNOW. THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE CONCERNING CEILINGS THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SOME MODELS...SUCH AS THE HRRR AND
NAM MOS...ARE INDICATE IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND GFS MOS CLEARS THE LOW CEILINGS OUT OF THE
AREA...WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. SINCE THE GFS SEEMS
TO BE DOING BETTER WITH THE LATEST TRENDS...MY BETS ARE WITH THE
CLEARER GFS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 16 30 26 31 / 10 10 20 60
INL 12 28 25 31 / 10 30 50 70
BRD 14 34 29 33 / 0 10 10 60
HYR 16 32 26 35 / 10 10 10 60
ASX 19 32 27 35 / 10 10 20 50
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1155 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016
UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 910 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR/RAP/DLH WRF ALL POINT TO MINIMAL SNOW
TODAY. BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS/SATELLITE HAVE LOWERED
POPS CONSIDERABLY THIS MORNING. DID PLACE SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING. CLOUDS
ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF THINNING/HOLES OPENING UP WHICH WOULD AFFECT
POPS/QPF/WEATHER. MADE SOME OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TODAY IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES
EAST TODAY INTO MINNESOTA. WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA AND THE SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO PERHAPS SOME
ISOLATED ONE INCH AMOUNTS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE TWENTIES.
LIGHT SNOW WILL BE MOST LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
THIS EVENING...THEN IT WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE FORCING MOVES
EAST. LOWS WILL DROP TO 10 TO 18 DEGREES.
A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA ON SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF MAINLY FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO 0C TO +1C OVER THE BRAINERD
LAKES REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION
IN PLACE SO THERE WILL NOT BE VERY MUCH MIXING. DESPITE THE LIMITING
MIXING...WE DO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO 30 TO 34 OVER THE
BRAINERD LAKES REGION...BUT ONLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S NORTHEAST
OF THE WARM FRONT IN THE ARROWHEAD.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING AT MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
FAVORS FREQUENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORMS ON THE HORIZON. TEMPERATURES MILD SUNDAY
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THEN
COLDER THROUGH THE WEEK AS ARCTIC AIR JUST TO THE NORTH ATTEMPTS TO
BREAK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING NOT AS
COLD FOR MID-WEEK AS PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD ANTICIPATED...BUT THE
ARCTIC AIR FINALLY BREAKS THROUGH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE IN
THE WEEK. THIS IS NOT TO SAY TEMPS WILL BE WARM BY ANY MEANS...STILL
EXPECTING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MID WEEK AND THEN COLDER LATE
WEEK...BUT JUST NOT AS COLD AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE ARE
STILL VARIOUS DIFFERENCES INTO HOW THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT THESE DIFFERENCES WILL NOT MAKE MUCH OF A
DIFFERENCE WHEN IT COMES TO SENSIBLE WEATHER. AHEAD OF THE LOW A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...COMING TO A STOP OVER THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
WHICH WILL RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THIS REGION AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LOW. COMBINED WITH EASTERLY WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AND THIS COULD RESULT IN LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...THOUGH LAKE/AIR TEMP DIFFERENCE
WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE. OVERNIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL
BE AROUND ONE TO THREE INCHES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO
THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD.
SUNDAY WILL BE WARM WITH SOME LOCATIONS WELL INTO THE MID
30S...MAINLY IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE A POSSIBLE DRY SLOT OVER
THE REGION MAY DELAY PRECIP UNTIL THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME
PRECIP MAY BEGIN OR CHANGE OVER TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SUCH AS IN
THE SAINT CROIX RIVER VALLEY INTO THE HAYWARD LAKES REGION...BUT
THINK THAT ONCE THE BETTER LARGE-SCALE LIFT ARRIVES PRECIP QUICKLY
CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW. MOST SNOWFALL LOOKS TO FALL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD TOTALS IN THE ONE TO
THREE INCH RANGE...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO
POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS WINDS TURN NORTHEASTERLY WITH THE
PASSING OF THE SFC LOW FROM NW MN TO EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
LOW WITH LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW. WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE FRESH SNOW. SNOW ENDS WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.
THROUGH THE MID WEEK COLD AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH RESULTING IN
POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST TIMES OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD WITH LOWS FALLING TO 10 BELOW ZERO TO NEAR ZERO.
/NOTE THAT THIS FORECAST PERIOD GOES THROUGH THURSDAY AND EVEN
COLDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT./ ANOTHER WEAK
CLIPPER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH FOR ANY PARTICULAR TIME...WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATING
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHT IN ANY CASE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016
SUBTLE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TODAY...FROM
WEST TO EAST...AND LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VERY
LIGHT SNOW. THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE CONCERNING CEILINGS THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SOME MODELS...SUCH AS THE HRRR AND
NAM MOS...ARE INDICATE IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND GFS MOS CLEARS THE LOW CEILINGS OUT OF THE
AREA...WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. SINCE THE GFS SEEMS
TO BE DOING BETTER WITH THE LATEST TRENDS...MY BETS ARE WITH THE
CLEARER GFS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 25 15 29 21 / 50 60 10 40
INL 24 10 26 21 / 20 20 30 50
BRD 26 12 33 24 / 20 20 10 30
HYR 24 17 31 22 / 50 60 10 30
ASX 27 19 31 23 / 50 60 10 30
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
325 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 325 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2016
A pair of vort maxes will approach the region tonight, spreading
extensive mid/high cloudiness over the area. The northern vort max
is the weaker of the pair and eventually phases with the southern
disturbance, although there is some model disagreement regarding how
quickly this occurs. Latest runs of the RAP point to a quicker
phasing than shown by the local WRF or NAM, and the quicker timing
looks reasonable based on recent satellite imagery and PV analyses.
Quicker phasing means that the northern disturbance won`t produce
much lift over the CWA and therefore there is much less chance of
flurries or sprinkles given the already limited moisture. Overnight
lows should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday due to extensive
cloud cover and weak WAA at low levels behind a retreating surface
high pressure center.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM: (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 325 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2016
An upper level TROF will swing thru our region dry on Saturday,
with forcing not strong enough and a column not moist enough, as the
main storm center passes well to our south, and should produce
nothing more than clouds that will decrease as the day wears on.
Otherwise, SW winds left in its wake will result in an above average
temp day, with maxes from the mid 40s to mid 50s favored, or at or
above the higher MAV MOS.
A more direct hit from a decently strong upper level disturbance
will occur late Sunday and into Sunday night, but will still be
fighting a largely dry column. Have added low PoPs for most of our
region for light rain for Sunday afternoon, and areas south and east
of STL metro heading into Sunday evening.
This initial disturbance Sunday will also correspond to the leading
edge of a brief shot of Arctic air that will begin later Sunday
night and continue into Monday night, resulting in scattered snow
showers over much of the region. Accums will be hard to nail down
this far out and due to the nature of the pcpn, but could see spotty
accums up to an inch from this event. Needless to say, the leading
edge of the Arctic airmass will also be accompanied by strong gusty
northwest winds, clouds, and stagnant daytime temps on Monday as CAA
remains strong thru the day.
Models are less clear, but it appears a second clipper-like system
may drop down for the Tuesday night or Wednesday timeframe, but the
signal is not enough, especially for this type of system, to place
mentionable PoPs in the forecast just yet.
Otherwise, NW upper flow continues thru all of next week and will
leave the door open for additional cold air intrusions, one of which
is slated to drop down Thursday or Friday.
Overall a period of mainly below average temps separated briefly by
periods of above average temps, with little in the way of
precipitation.
TES
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1108 AM CST Fri Feb 5 2016
VFR through the period with increasing mid/high clouds. Initially
lgt/var winds will become southwesterly on Saturday morning due
to the approach and passage of a surface trough after 06/12z.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1218 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 942 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016
12z NAM initialized a stronger vorticity max over south central NE
than shown in earlier progs. RAP is a bit weaker. Both models track
the feature east this morning/afternoon. Area of light snow tied to
this feature will be moving into a rather dry airmass as noted by the
dirt-dry sub-cloud region on the 12z TOP raob. Latest short-range
models are more bullish in keeping this area of snow intact, albeit
diminishing it as it moves into far northwest MO. NAM also showing
moderate moist isentropic ascent on the 280-285K surfaces. Will add
chance PoPs to far northwest MO for this afternoon with slight
chances spreading across the northern two tier of counties. Will
monitor radar trends and if the snow holds together better than
anticipated will look to raise PoPs.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016
Very little change to the going forecast philosophy, with overall
quiet weather on the horizon. Two shortwave troughs will be featured
over the next few days, but with limited moisture, little in the way
of sensible weather will be noted for the area. Mid/high clouds will
steadily increase during the day with readings warming into the
middle 30s to middle 40s. The first disturbance arrives overnight
and besides the increase in cloud cover, a few sprinkles cannot be
completely ruled out. Downglide quickly clears out cloud cover as
system departs on Saturday, with a continued mild weekend on tap for
the weekend. The second disturbance arrives Sunday/Monday, with
slightly more notable weather. A strengthening pressure gradient
will allow for gusty northwesterly winds on Sunday. Enough dynamics
and low-level moisture may allow for light precipitation in the
form of snow over the eastern two-thirds of the CWA. Much colder air
will advect into the area as the pattern becomes much more amplified
heading into early next week before readings gradually moderate to
near normal levels by the middle of the work week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016
Southern edge of area of snow over southeast NE/western IA continues
to erode as it moves east. Think this trend will continue as the band
moves across far northwest and north central MO this afternoon.
Little if any snow accumulation expected. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will continue as a weak wind shift line passes across western MO late
this evening. Could see some sprinkles/flurries near this boundary
but again no accumulations expected.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
947 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 942 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016
12z NAM initialized a stronger vorticity max over south central NE
than shown in earlier progs. RAP is a bit weaker. Both models track
the feature east this morning/afternoon. Area of light snow tied to
this feature will be moving into a rather dry airmass as noted by the
dirt-dry sub-cloud region on the 12z TOP raob. Latest short-range
models are more bullish in keeping this area of snow intact, albiet
diminishing it as it moves into far northwest MO. NAM also showing
moderate moist isentropic ascent on the 280-285K surfaces. Will add
chance PoPs to far northwest MO for this afternoon with sligth
chances spreading across the northern two tier of counties. Will
monitor radar trends and if the snow holds together better than
anticipated will look to raise PoPs.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016
Very little change to the going forecast philosophy, with overall
quiet weather on the horizon. Two shortwave troughs will be featured
over the next few days, but with limited moisture, little in the way
of sensible weather will be noted for the area. Mid/high clouds will
steadily increase during the day with readings warming into the
middle 30s to middle 40s. The first disturbance arrives overnight
and besides the increase in cloud cover, a few sprinkles cannot be
completely ruled out. Downglide quickly clears out cloud cover as
system departs on Saturday, with a continued mild weekend on tap for
the weekend. The second disturbance arrives Sunday/Monday, with
slightly more notable weather. A strengthening pressure gradient
will allow for gusty northwesterly winds on Sunday. Enough dynamics
and low-level moisture may allow for light precipitation in the
form of snow over the eastern two-thirds of the CWA. Much colder air
will advect into the area as the pattern becomes much more amplified
heading into early next week before readings gradually moderate to
near normal levels by the middle of the work week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 537 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016
VFR conditions are expected through much of the period with a gradual
lowering of high to mid level cloudiness throughout the day. Main
concern is potential for MVFR/IFR window between 09-13Z Saturday
with either scattered stratus and/or drizzle. Have not included into
forecast with high uncertainy and being end of the period, but will
need to be closely monitored.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
330 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016
THERE ARE SEVERAL SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS...LIGHT SNOW ENDING
THIS EVENING...POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT AND THEN STRONG WINDS
WITH LIGHT SNOW/BLOWING SNOW SUNDAY/MONDAY.
AMPLIFIED MID TROPOSPHERIC PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS.
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NOW WILL PUSH EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND SNOW WILL END. RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BUILD EAST
INTO THE AREA BUT WEAKEN THROUGH SATURDAY. BY LATE SATURDAY...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA BACK INTO
WYOMING. THE PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AGAIN SUNDAY AS A RIDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND THAT SHORTWAVE
INTENSIFIES AND FORMS A CLOSED LOW OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.
TONIGHT...WARM FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE AREA BUT WINDS WILL DROP OFF. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...THERE
MAY BE SOME FOG. EXPERIMENTAL HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN HINTING AT DENSE
FOG FORMATION FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS...STARTING NORTH OF
THE PLATTE RIVER PRIOR TO 06Z. THAT MODEL THEN EXPANDS THE FOG AND
KEEPS IT INTO MID MORNING SATURDAY. THIS ALL DEPENDS ON CLOUD COVER.
THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO BRING CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME AT LEAST SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND DECOUPLING OF WINDS OVER DEEPER SNOW COVER. SURFACE
WINDS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST ARE NOT ALL THAT FAVORABLE FOR FOG
LOCALLY...BUT AIRMASS BEHIND THIS TROUGH/WIND SHIFT IS FAIRLY
MOIST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE VERY TRICKY...WITH SNOW
AND FOG POTENTIAL. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS.
SATURDAY...CLOUDS AND FOG MAY LINGER IN THE MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN IOWA AND EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT AND SHOULD GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IF CLOUDS DECREASE AS EXPECTED AND WE CAN GET
SOME SUNSHINE...HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SHOULD BE REALIZED.
AREAS WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA SHOULD REACH INTO
THE MID 40S.
LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE (POSSIBLY INTO WIND ADVISORY CATEGORY) AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LAG A BIT. WILL KEEP SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW. BEST CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW WILL STAY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT INCLUDED
SOME LOW POPS IN OUR AREA...WITH SOME MOISTURE WRAPPING INTO THE
AREA. LAPSE RATES STEEPEN BELOW 750 IN GFS AND NAM FCST SOUNDINGS
SO THE IDEA OF SNOW SHOWERS STILL SEEMS PRUDENT. SNOW CHANCES WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW COULD BECOME PROBLEMATIC
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL MONITOR THIS FOR LATER FORECASTS AND MAY
NEED TO HIT HARDER WITH SOME TYPE OF ADVISORY LATER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016
LITTLE OR NO PCPN IS EXPECTED IN THIS PERIOD...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A BIT FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
STRONG 500 MB RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA
TUESDAY AND OUR AREA WILL BE IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW. THAT RIDGE
SHOULD DEAMPLIFY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN BECOMING
MORE ZONAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016
VARIABLE CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS A
BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS AREA. A SECONDARY WAVE WILL
BRING ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH SOME CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG SETTING UP OVERNIGHT.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...KERN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1111 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016
OVERVIEW...THERE ARE A FEW FORECAST CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. FOG IS NOT LIKELY...BUT CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT
ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...A VERY LIGHT SNOW EVENT IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING
PRIMARILY BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON AND FOCUSED ON NEBRASKA ZONES.
HOWEVER...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LOW IF WE EVEN GET
ANYTHING...GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH IN MOST PLACES.
FOG POTENTIAL...THERE HAS BEEN A LOW STRATUS DECK THIS AFTERNOON
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN IOWA. THE HRRR HAS BEEN FORECASTING
FOG FORMATION THIS EVENING OVER THE THICK SNOW COVER AND NEAR THE
EDGE OF THIS STRATUS DECK ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. THE SREF
FOG POTENTIAL IS ALSO OVER 50 PERCENT IN SOME OF THIS AREA. IN
ADDITION...THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUPPORTING FOG.
HOWEVER...THE HRRR HAS BEEN BACKING OFF OF THE FOG ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST AND HAS BEEN PULLING THE FOG FURTHER BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA AND CLOSER TO THE STRATUS
DECK...WHICH MAKES SENSE. THE SREF MAY BE OVERDOING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GIVEN HOW SNOW COVER IS HANDLED IN THE MODELS. IN
ADDITION...MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT LIMITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ALSO LIMITING FOG POTENTIAL.
THEREFORE...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE FOG IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS POINT IN TIME. IF WE DO SEE FOG...IT WILL LIKELY
BE NORTHEAST OF THE TRI-CITIES.
SNOW POTENTIAL...A WEAK FAST MOVING OPEN SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
MOST FORECAST MODELS GENERATE A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF MOISTURE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE THAT WOULD AMOUNT TO TRACE
AMOUNTS OF SNOW OR LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
PRETTY CLEARLY SHOW THAT THE TEMPERATURE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
ACROSS OUR CWA THAT THE ONLY PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW.
HOWEVER...OVERALL LIFT IS WEAK AS NOTED BY FRONTOGENESIS AND
ISENTROPIC SURFACES. THE ONLY THING REALLY GOING FOR THIS WEAK
LITTLE SYSTEM IS A FAIRLY DEEP SATURATED ZONE WITHIN THE DENDRITIC
LAYER THAT COULD LEAD TO A LITTLE LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW. GIVEN THE
LACK OF LIFT WILL JUST CALL FOR LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW
AND MOST AREAS MAY SEE A TRACE OR LESS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
WEAK AND THUS NOT MUCH WIND IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016
ALOFT: NW FLOW WAS DEVELOPING AND WILL DOMINATE THESE PERIODS.
EXCITATION OF THE LONGWAVES UPSTREAM WILL RESULT IN TEMPORARY
AMPLIFICATION OVER N AMERICA...WITH A +2.5 STANDARD DEVIATION RIDGE
OVER THE W AND A -2.5 SD TROF OVER THE ERN USA. THE WAVELENGTH WILL
BROADEN AND THE MAGNITUDE WILL DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT MID-NEXT WEEK...
WITH SIGNIFICANT DEAMPLIFICATION PROBABLE LATE NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE: A POTENT CLIPPER WILL BE RACING SE ACROSS THE CAN PRAIRIES
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED POLAR COLD FRONT WILL SURGE S AND
CROSS THE FCST AREA SAT NIGHT. IT THEN LOOKS LIKE THE ARCTIC FRONT
SLIDES THRU MON. HIGH PRES ARRIVES TUE AND THEN IT WRN EDGE OF THE
COLDER AIR BEGINS TO EDGE E INTO WED...WITH A WARM FRONT SHARPENING
AND APPROACHING.
NW FLOW IS A DRY PATTERN. SO ANY PRECIP THREATS WILL BE
LIGHT/MINOR.THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC COLD WILL SURGE INTO THE ERN
USA...MISSING US JUST TO THE E. BUT THE WRN FRINGE OF THESE AIR
MASSES WILL KEEP TEMPS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW NORMAL. THE FCST
AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A CLIPPER SAT. THAT COULD BE A
DAY OF TEMPORARY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
A FEW DAILY DETAILS...
FRI NIGHT: DECREASING CLOUDS.
SAT: TEMPS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE COMPLICATION OF SNOW
COVER. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S...EVEN
WITH THE SNOW COVER. IT`S LOOKING VERY WARM IN THE LOW-LVLS...BUT
NOT SURE HOW DEEPLY THE BL MIXES INTO THIS TO BRING IT DOWN.
SUN: COLD SECTOR. WINDY IN CAA...BUT ACTUAL AIR TEMPS NOT THAT
COLD.
COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES N OF I-80 SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. JET
FORCING IS STRONG ALOFT...BUT MOISTURE IS LACKING.
MON: TEMPS DROP BACK TO NORMAL...POSSIBLY BELOW. WE MAY NOT BE HIGH
ENOUGH WITH THE WARP-AROUND CLOUD COVER ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE
THERMAL TROF. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND
E...BUT IT`S NOT IN THE FCST YET.
TUE-WED: QUIET AND DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016
CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN KANSAS. EXPECT THE LIGHT SNOW AND LOWER CEILINGS TO MOVE
INTO KGRI AND KEAR ESPECIALLY TOWARDS MORNING. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY COULD DROP INTO MVFR...BUT DO NOT EXPECT IFR OR LOWER
CRITERIA DURING THE SNOW. HAVE KEPT THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW UNTIL BETTER DETAILS ARE KNOWN. CEILINGS WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
DAY AND SKIES WILL CLEAR TOWARDS THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...BILLINGS WRIGHT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1104 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24
HRS. EXCEPTIONS INCLUDE LOCALIZED AREAS ACROSS THE NE CORNER OF
THE STATE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO SNOWFALL. THE OTHER
BEING ACROSS NW AREAS LATE TONIGHT. BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AN AREA OF LOW CIGS DEVELOPED TO THE EAST OF FMN THIS
MORNING. THERE IS SOME INDICATION ANOTHER AREA OF LOW CIGS WOULD
DEVELOP AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT TOWARDS FMN LATE TONIGHT. WILL
MONITOR THAT TREND CLOSELY. USED VCFG IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KT AT TCC EARLY/MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
LOWERING.
50
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...315 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
TODAY...BRINGING A REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR...GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AND SOME MEAGER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND WILL THEN DOMINATE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND STEERS STORMS AWAY FROM NEW
MEXICO THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
SEASONAL VALUES OR ABOVE BY NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER DAY...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND EAST...BUT OVERALL NOT ANTICIPATING SPEEDS
WILL REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE THERE COULD BE SOME
MOSTLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND
ALONG THE FAR NORTHEAST...SUCH AS RATON PASS/SIERRA GRANDE WHERE
THEY COULD SEE POSSIBLY AN INCH OR TWO...BUT NOT THINKING IT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ANY WINTER TYPE HIGHLIGHTS. HRRR DOES SUGGEST
SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN...AS WELL AS THE ECMWF WHICH PAINTS ISOLATED MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS IN THE EAST CENTRAL...BOTH WHERE CURRENT GRIDS HAVE LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT POPS TODAY. SO LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION TRENDING TOWARDS GREATER AREAL COVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT PLUMMET AGAIN FOR THE NORTHERN MTS...BUT
GUIDANCE DOESN/T INDICATE IT WILL BE QUITE AS COLD AS THURSDAY
MORNING LOWS WERE. ANOTHER DRY WAVE SENDS A FRONT INTO NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY BUT COOLING EFFECTS MORE LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS.
THEREAFTER...DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND WILL DOMINATE NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES FINALLY REBOUND TO NORMAL OR ABOVE BY TUESDAY
OVERALL. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT. LATE NEXT WEEK...THE GFS ALLOWS
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE DRAWN INTO NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH STRETCHED THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THE ECMWF DEPICTS MORE OF
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM...DRIER AND COOLER.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ONE QUICK-MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWUNG THROUGH NORTHERN NM EARLIER
LAST EVENING...AND A SECOND ONE IS QUICKLY FOLLOWING ON ITS HEELS
AND WILL CROSS OVER NORTHEAST NM BY LATE MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS
ALSO DROPPING SOUTH INTO NM...AND THIS WILL BRING A TEMPORARY
CESSATION TO THE WARMING TREND. SOME LOWER-BASED CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTH
CENTRAL NM...GRADUALLY EXTENDING INTO NORTHEASTERN NM BY MID DAY.
ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY A
COUPLE OF INCHES FORESEEN NEAR THE RATON RIDGE/PASS. AS THE COLD
FRONT SPILLS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA...SOME WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
NM. IT WILL BE HERE WHERE VENTILATION RATES WILL BE BOOSTED...BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT SMOKE DISPERSION RATES TO REMAIN IN THE POOR
CATEGORY TODAY.
AS THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS MORE WEST NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY...IT WILL
RELAX AND BECOME MORE STABLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO RISING PRESSURE
HEIGHTS AND CONSEQUENTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH SATURDAYS HIGHS
RISING 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE TODAYS. THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NM WILL
OBSERVE THE LARGEST GAINS WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS. STIFF
SURFACE/20FT BREEZES WILL STILL TAKE SHAPE IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COME LOWER HUMIDITY. PATCHES OF CENTRAL NM
AND MOST OF THE EASTERN ZONES WILL OBSERVE MINIMUM HUMIDITY OF 10-20
PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE AREA OF STRONGER WINDS IN THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE JUXTAPOSED OVER ANY CRITICAL
RH AREAS AT THIS TIME. POOR VENTILATION IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.
THEN THE FLOW RETURNS TO A MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL COMPONENT FROM THE
NORTHWEST HOSTING YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT. THIS PERTURBATION
SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF NM EARLY SUNDAY...BUT STILL THE
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF NM. ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO SLIP INTO EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY
SUNDAY...BUT THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOES NOT APPEAR TO DISRUPT THE
FORECAST AREA FROM REACHING NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY. AFTER SUNDAY...THE THEME FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE A
DRY...TRANQUIL...AND WARMER PATTERN. VENTILATION RATES WILL
SUFFER...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
52
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
440 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HAVE CROSSED NORTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO BY MID DAY TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT SPILLING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE STATE. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTH
CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS IN THE PLAINS. SNOW WILL TEND TO FAVOR THE PEAKS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS EASTWARD TO THE RATON
RIDGE AND JOHNSON MESA WHERE SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH PERIODIC MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. A STRAY
SHOWER MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT AREAS AS FAR SOUTH AS KTCC...BUT THIS
WILL BE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY WITH NO LONG DURATION IMPACTS
EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KT WILL BE COMMON ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO
TODAY. SHOWERS WILL CLEAR AROUND DUSK WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...315 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
TODAY...BRINGING A REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR...GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AND SOME MEAGER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND WILL THEN DOMINATE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND STEERS STORMS AWAY FROM NEW
MEXICO THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
SEASONAL VALUES OR ABOVE BY NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER DAY...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND EAST...BUT OVERALL NOT ANTICIPATING SPEEDS
WILL REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE THERE COULD BE SOME
MOSTLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND
ALONG THE FAR NORTHEAST...SUCH AS RATON PASS/SIERRA GRANDE WHERE
THEY COULD SEE POSSIBLY AN INCH OR TWO...BUT NOT THINKING IT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ANY WINTER TYPE HIGHLIGHTS. HRRR DOES SUGGEST
SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN...AS WELL AS THE ECMWF WHICH PAINTS ISOLATED MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS IN THE EAST CENTRAL...BOTH WHERE CURRENT GRIDS HAVE LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT POPS TODAY. SO LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION TRENDING TOWARDS GREATER AREAL COVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT PLUMMET AGAIN FOR THE NORTHERN MTS...BUT
GUIDANCE DOESN/T INDICATE IT WILL BE QUITE AS COLD AS THURSDAY
MORNING LOWS WERE. ANOTHER DRY WAVE SENDS A FRONT INTO NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY BUT COOLING EFFECTS MORE LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS.
THEREAFTER...DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND WILL DOMINATE NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES FINALLY REBOUND TO NORMAL OR ABOVE BY TUESDAY
OVERALL. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT. LATE NEXT WEEK...THE GFS ALLOWS
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE DRAWN INTO NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH STRETCHED THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THE ECMWF DEPICTS MORE OF
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM...DRIER AND COOLER.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ONE QUICK-MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWUNG THROUGH NORTHERN NM EARLIER
LAST EVENING...AND A SECOND ONE IS QUICKLY FOLLOWING ON ITS HEELS
AND WILL CROSS OVER NORTHEAST NM BY LATE MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS
ALSO DROPPING SOUTH INTO NM...AND THIS WILL BRING A TEMPORARY
CESSATION TO THE WARMING TREND. SOME LOWER-BASED CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTH
CENTRAL NM...GRADUALLY EXTENDING INTO NORTHEASTERN NM BY MID DAY.
ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY A
COUPLE OF INCHES FORESEEN NEAR THE RATON RIDGE/PASS. AS THE COLD
FRONT SPILLS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA...SOME WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
NM. IT WILL BE HERE WHERE VENTILATION RATES WILL BE BOOSTED...BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT SMOKE DISPERSION RATES TO REMAIN IN THE POOR
CATEGORY TODAY.
AS THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS MORE WEST NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY...IT WILL
RELAX AND BECOME MORE STABLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO RISING PRESSURE
HEIGHTS AND CONSEQUENTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH SATURDAYS HIGHS
RISING 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE TODAYS. THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NM WILL
OBSERVE THE LARGEST GAINS WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS. STIFF
SURFACE/20FT BREEZES WILL STILL TAKE SHAPE IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COME LOWER HUMIDITY. PATCHES OF CENTRAL NM
AND MOST OF THE EASTERN ZONES WILL OBSERVE MINIMUM HUMIDITY OF 10-20
PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE AREA OF STRONGER WINDS IN THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE JUXTAPOSED OVER ANY CRITICAL
RH AREAS AT THIS TIME. POOR VENTILATION IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.
THEN THE FLOW RETURNS TO A MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL COMPONENT FROM THE
NORTHWEST HOSTING YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT. THIS PERTURBATION
SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF NM EARLY SUNDAY...BUT STILL THE
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF NM. ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO SLIP INTO EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY
SUNDAY...BUT THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOES NOT APPEAR TO DISRUPT THE
FORECAST AREA FROM REACHING NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY. AFTER SUNDAY...THE THEME FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE A
DRY...TRANQUIL...AND WARMER PATTERN. VENTILATION RATES WILL
SUFFER...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
52
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
315 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
TODAY...BRINGING A REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR...GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AND SOME MEAGER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND WILL THEN DOMINATE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND STEERS STORMS AWAY FROM NEW
MEXICO THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
SEASONAL VALUES OR ABOVE BY NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER DAY...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND EAST...BUT OVERALL NOT ANTICIPATING SPEEDS
WILL REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE THERE COULD BE SOME
MOSTLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND
ALONG THE FAR NORTHEAST...SUCH AS RATON PASS/SIERRA GRANDE WHERE
THEY COULD SEE POSSIBLY AN INCH OR TWO...BUT NOT THINKING IT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ANY WINTER TYPE HIGHLIGHTS. HRRR DOES SUGGEST
SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN...AS WELL AS THE ECMWF WHICH PAINTS ISOLATED MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS IN THE EAST CENTRAL...BOTH WHERE CURRENT GRIDS HAVE LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT POPS TODAY. SO LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION TRENDING TOWARDS GREATER AREAL COVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT PLUMMET AGAIN FOR THE NORTHERN MTS...BUT
GUIDANCE DOESN/T INDICATE IT WILL BE QUITE AS COLD AS THURSDAY
MORNING LOWS WERE. ANOTHER DRY WAVE SENDS A FRONT INTO NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY BUT COOLING EFFECTS MORE LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS.
THEREAFTER...DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND WILL DOMINATE NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES FINALLY REBOUND TO NORMAL OR ABOVE BY TUESDAY
OVERALL. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT. LATE NEXT WEEK...THE GFS ALLOWS
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE DRAWN INTO NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH STRETCHED THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THE ECMWF DEPICTS MORE OF
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM...DRIER AND COOLER.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ONE QUICK-MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWUNG THROUGH NORTHERN NM EARLIER
LAST EVENING...AND A SECOND ONE IS QUICKLY FOLLOWING ON ITS HEELS
AND WILL CROSS OVER NORTHEAST NM BY LATE MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS
ALSO DROPPING SOUTH INTO NM...AND THIS WILL BRING A TEMPORARY
CESSATION TO THE WARMING TREND. SOME LOWER-BASED CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTH
CENTRAL NM...GRADUALLY EXTENDING INTO NORTHEASTERN NM BY MID DAY.
ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY A
COUPLE OF INCHES FORESEEN NEAR THE RATON RIDGE/PASS. AS THE COLD
FRONT SPILLS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA...SOME WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
NM. IT WILL BE HERE WHERE VENTILATION RATES WILL BE BOOSTED...BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT SMOKE DISPERSION RATES TO REMAIN IN THE POOR
CATEGORY TODAY.
AS THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS MORE WEST NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY...IT WILL
RELAX AND BECOME MORE STABLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO RISING PRESSURE
HEIGHTS AND CONSEQUENTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH SATURDAYS HIGHS
RISING 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE TODAYS. THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NM WILL
OBSERVE THE LARGEST GAINS WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS. STIFF
SURFACE/20FT BREEZES WILL STILL TAKE SHAPE IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COME LOWER HUMIDITY. PATCHES OF CENTRAL NM
AND MOST OF THE EASTERN ZONES WILL OBSERVE MINIMUM HUMIDITY OF 10-20
PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE AREA OF STRONGER WINDS IN THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE JUXTAPOSED OVER ANY CRITICAL
RH AREAS AT THIS TIME. POOR VENTILATION IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.
THEN THE FLOW RETURNS TO A MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL COMPONENT FROM THE
NORTHWEST HOSTING YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT. THIS PERTURBATION
SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF NM EARLY SUNDAY...BUT STILL THE
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF NM. ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO SLIP INTO EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY
SUNDAY...BUT THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOES NOT APPEAR TO DISRUPT THE
FORECAST AREA FROM REACHING NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY. AFTER SUNDAY...THE THEME FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE A
DRY...TRANQUIL...AND WARMER PATTERN. VENTILATION RATES WILL
SUFFER...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
52
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24
HRS. MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS WILL EXIT THE STATE IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUNCH SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS
AT TCC AND ROW MID TO LATE MORNING. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KT
AT TCC AND ROW DURING THE DAY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE NE FRIDAY BUT CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR
CONDITIONS.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 34 10 38 17 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 28 -11 34 0 / 5 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 30 3 37 13 / 5 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 39 1 47 10 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 35 -2 43 7 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 39 0 47 10 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 35 6 46 15 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 46 12 53 18 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 25 -10 33 6 / 10 0 5 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 32 13 40 22 / 5 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 35 13 41 21 / 10 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 27 -9 36 7 / 10 0 0 5
RED RIVER....................... 22 -17 34 -2 / 10 0 0 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 25 -21 37 -5 / 20 0 0 5
TAOS............................ 31 -7 38 8 / 5 0 0 0
MORA............................ 33 9 43 19 / 10 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 36 8 44 18 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 32 10 40 19 / 5 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 35 12 42 20 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 38 15 44 23 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 41 18 46 25 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 42 12 47 21 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 41 14 47 22 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 43 13 48 19 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 40 17 46 24 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 45 20 50 25 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 35 13 42 22 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 37 14 43 23 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 38 1 46 15 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 32 13 40 22 / 5 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 39 17 46 25 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 44 20 49 27 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 38 21 47 30 / 0 5 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 32 4 48 19 / 30 0 0 5
RATON........................... 36 3 49 17 / 20 0 0 5
SPRINGER........................ 35 6 49 18 / 10 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 34 8 50 22 / 5 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 37 18 56 25 / 10 0 0 0
ROY............................. 38 15 54 24 / 5 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 42 16 56 25 / 5 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 43 17 57 26 / 5 5 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 45 18 59 26 / 0 5 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 44 20 57 28 / 5 5 0 0
PORTALES........................ 45 19 58 28 / 5 5 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 46 18 58 27 / 5 5 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 50 17 61 27 / 0 5 0 0
PICACHO......................... 47 22 57 32 / 0 5 0 0
ELK............................. 44 21 54 31 / 0 5 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
254 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS... IN THE WAKE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTING THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SURFACE LOW WILL PASS BY THE CAROLINA COAST
ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM FRIDAY...
THE EARLY MORNING RAIN/SNOW MIX HAS FIZZLED AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN
FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...WHICH IS NOW SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND. LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND 4000K FT IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND SOME VERY SHALLOW INSTABILITY...PER RAP SOUNDINGS...COULD
STILL RESULT IN A FEW RAIN DROPS EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR THROUGH
NOON. HOWEVER...WITH THE MOISTURE STEADILY ERODING AND STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT...HAVE REMOVED REMAIN POPS. COLD
ADVECTION AT 850MB IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO BETWEEN 925MB AND 850NMB SUPPORTS HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S...A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. -SMITH
WINDS DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR
SKIES... AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST SHIFTS
OVERHEAD. LOWS 23-29... COLDEST IN THE RURAL PIEDMONT AND WRN
SANDHILLS. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...
THE WEEKEND WILL START OUT QUIET... ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON
THE RISE... WITH PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE LATE SAT NIGHT IN THE
FAR SE. INITIALLY DRY AND STABLE AIR OVER CENTRAL NC WILL LEAD TO
CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE TO START SAT. THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SW
TO NE ACROSS NC EARLY SAT WILL NARROW FURTHER AND BE OVERTAKEN BY
LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE BAHAMAS ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE... IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE APPROACH OF A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW DIVING DOWN THROUGH ERN CO/NM. AS THIS
AMPLIFYING WAVE CROSSES THE GULF STATES/NRN GULF AND SOUTHEAST
SAT/SAT NIGHT... THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN QUICKLY AND
TRACK TO THE NE... STAYING FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO BE OF LITTLE
CONSEQUENCE FOR CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER... A FEW MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ATLANTIC MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW TO
SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP INTO OUR FAR SE CWA OVERNIGHT. THE LOW LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT DRY BELOW 5 000 FT... WHICH WOULD
MAKE ANY PRECIP VERY LIGHT WITH ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS. PARTIAL
THICKNESSES SUPPORT THIS PRECIP BEING MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW... AND THIS
IS ALSO WHAT IS INDICATED BY THE TOP-DOWN METHODOLOGY... AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD SATURATION UP TO AND ABOVE -20C WITH A COLD
COLUMN. WILL BRING IN SMALL POPS IN OUR SOUTHEAST SAT NIGHT BUT WITH
MINIMAL QPF AND NO NOTABLE IMPACT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SAT
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH SOME RECOVERY IN THICKNESSES. LOWS
FROM THE UPPER 20S NW TO LOWER 30S SE. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ONSHORE BRITISH COLUMBIA TONIGHT WILL RESULT
IN RAPID AMPLIFICATION OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US SUN
NIGHT/MONDAY AS IT DIGS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE
OH VALLEY AS AN UPPER LOW...ON THE HEELS OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE RESULTING
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH MID-WEEK...OR UNTIL UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
ESTABLISHED THU/FRI. LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN ASSOC/W
POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW MONDAY AFT/EVE. GIVEN SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND THE PRESENCE OF LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...NO PTYPE CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED. EXPECT BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUE/WED IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG/PERSISTENT
COLD ADVECTION AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS. FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT...I.E.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS NEAR/OVER THE REGION AND WESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT
THE LOW/MID LEVELS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD/SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION TUE AFTERNOON GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES/VERY COLD TEMPS
ALOFT AND OCCASIONAL DPVA ASSOC/W SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH /UPPER LOW/ OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. WHETHER OR
NOT CONVECTION DEVELOPS WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF
DPVA...AND EVEN IF CONVECTION WERE TO DEVELOP...A VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER WOULD HAVE TO BE OVERCOME...THUS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. IF
CONVECTION WERE TO DEVELOP...A SHALLOW ABOVE FREEZING LAYER IN
THE LOWEST 500-1000 FT AGL WOULD SUGGEST RAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A RATE-DRIVEN CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS WOULD BE
PRESENT. -VINCENT
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM FRIDAY...
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST INTO THE 20-25KT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE PREVAILING. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME NEARLY CALM. VFR
WILL CONTINUE.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON
SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW PASSING BY THE CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY MAY
BRING LIGHT PRECIP AND A PERIOD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FROM KFAY TO
KRWI. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS AND PATCHY PRECIP TO ALL SITES MON AFTERNOON INTO
TUE.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/SMITH
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1245 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS... IN THE WAKE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTING THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SURFACE LOW WILL PASS BY THE CAROLINA COAST
ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM FRIDAY...
THE EARLY MORNING RAIN/SNOW MIX HAS FIZZLED AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN
FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...WHICH IS NOW SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND. LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND 4000K FT IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND SOME VERY SHALLOW INSTABILITY...PER RAP SOUNDINGS...COULD
STILL RESULT IN A FEW RAIN DROPS EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR THROUGH
NOON. HOWEVER...WITH THE MOISTURE STEADILY ERODING AND STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT...HAVE REMOVED REMAIN POPS. COLD
ADVECTION AT 850MB IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO BETWEEN 925MB AND 850NMB SUPPORTS HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S...A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. -SMITH
WINDS DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR
SKIES... AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST SHIFTS
OVERHEAD. LOWS 23-29... COLDEST IN THE RURAL PIEDMONT AND WRN
SANDHILLS. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...
THE WEEKEND WILL START OUT QUIET... ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON
THE RISE... WITH PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE LATE SAT NIGHT IN THE
FAR SE. INITIALLY DRY AND STABLE AIR OVER CENTRAL NC WILL LEAD TO
CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE TO START SAT. THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SW
TO NE ACROSS NC EARLY SAT WILL NARROW FURTHER AND BE OVERTAKEN BY
LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE BAHAMAS ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE... IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE APPROACH OF A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW DIVING DOWN THROUGH ERN CO/NM. AS THIS
AMPLIFYING WAVE CROSSES THE GULF STATES/NRN GULF AND SOUTHEAST
SAT/SAT NIGHT... THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN QUICKLY AND
TRACK TO THE NE... STAYING FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO BE OF LITTLE
CONSEQUENCE FOR CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER... A FEW MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ATLANTIC MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW TO
SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP INTO OUR FAR SE CWA OVERNIGHT. THE LOW LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT DRY BELOW 5 000 FT... WHICH WOULD
MAKE ANY PRECIP VERY LIGHT WITH ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS. PARTIAL
THICKNESSES SUPPORT THIS PRECIP BEING MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW... AND THIS
IS ALSO WHAT IS INDICATED BY THE TOP-DOWN METHODOLOGY... AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD SATURATION UP TO AND ABOVE -20C WITH A COLD
COLUMN. WILL BRING IN SMALL POPS IN OUR SOUTHEAST SAT NIGHT BUT WITH
MINIMAL QPF AND NO NOTABLE IMPACT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SAT
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH SOME RECOVERY IN THICKNESSES. LOWS
FROM THE UPPER 20S NW TO LOWER 30S SE. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...
SUNDAYS PROMINENT WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS AND THE SURFACE LOW OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST. WHILE MUCH OF THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OFF OF THE
COAST...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TO CREEP INTO THE
EASTERN THIRD OF OUR CWA ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE STORM. AT THIS
TIME MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN WITH
POTENTIALLY SOME WET SNOW MIXED IN PER NOMOGRAM THICKNESSES. DRY LOW
LEVELS MAY KEEP SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND
FOR A WHILE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD EXIT TO THE
EAST BY SUNDAY EVENING AT THE LATEST. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM AT THIS TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY SHIFT
IN THE GUIDANCE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 50 DEGREES WITH AN
UNUSUAL TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION OF WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST
AND COLDEST IN THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO GREATER CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE STORM. LOWS MONDAY
MORNING NEAR FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS.
MONDAY WILL BEGIN WITH A LULL BETWEEN THE EXITING COASTAL SYSTEM AND
THE NEXT LARGE UNORGANIZED SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL
USHER IN ARCTIC AIR FROM CANADA. TIMING OF THE WEAK FRONT THAT WILL
SIGNAL THE ARRIVAL OF THIS COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY
SO TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH WILL STILL MAKE IT TO THE LOW 50S WITH
MID 40S IN THE TRIAD. AS THIS IS A CONTINENTAL AIRMASS...THERE IS
NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM AT ALL AND PW VALUES REMAIN BELOW
A HALF OF AN INCH. THAT BEING SAID...THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...BEGINNING MOST LIKELY AFTER 15Z ON
MONDAY AS RAIN. ANYTHING THAT FALLS SHOULD REMAIN RAIN UNTIL LATER
IN THE EVENING WHEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO ALL SNOW
AFTER 3Z TUESDAY AS NOMOGRAM THICKNESSES TANK. BY THIS TIME
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA AND ANY SNOW
SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE AT THIS TIME. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S NW TO LOW 30S SE.
SOME INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY BUT OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE AS QPF VALUES REMAIN VERY LOW.
EVENTUALLY THE VERY DRY AIR WILL TAKE OVER AND THE COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL BECOME THE MAIN STORY AS HIGHS TUESDAY ONLY MAKE THE LOW TO MID
40S AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT DIVE INTO THE MID 20S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
THE COLDEST DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES AND
WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS. DESPITE THE
COLD...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ON THURSDAY THE UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO FINALLY LIFT OUT AND TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM FRIDAY...
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST INTO THE 20-25KT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE PREVAILING. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME NEARLY CALM. VFR
WILL CONTINUE.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON
SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW PASSING BY THE CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY MAY
BRING LIGHT PRECIP AND A PERIOD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FROM KFAY TO
KRWI. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS AND PATCHY PRECIP TO ALL SITES MON AFTERNOON INTO
TUE.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/SMITH
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1015 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM FRIDAY...
THE EARLY MORNING RAIN/SNOW MIX HAS FIZZLED AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN
FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...WHICH IS NOW SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND. LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND 4000K FT IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND SOME VERY SHALLOW INSTABILITY...PER RAP SOUNDINGS...COULD
STILL RESULT IN A FEW RAIN DROPS EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR THROUGH
NOON. HOWEVER...WITH THE MOISTURE STEADILY ERODING AND STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT...HAVE REMOVED REMAIN POPS. COLD
ADVECTION AT 850MB IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO BETWEEN 925MB AND 850NMB SUPPORTS HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S...A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. -SMITH
WINDS DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR
SKIES... AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST SHIFTS
OVERHEAD. LOWS 23-29... COLDEST IN THE RURAL PIEDMONT AND WRN
SANDHILLS. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...
THE WEEKEND WILL START OUT QUIET... ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON
THE RISE... WITH PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE LATE SAT NIGHT IN THE
FAR SE. INITIALLY DRY AND STABLE AIR OVER CENTRAL NC WILL LEAD TO
CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE TO START SAT. THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SW
TO NE ACROSS NC EARLY SAT WILL NARROW FURTHER AND BE OVERTAKEN BY
LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE BAHAMAS ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE... IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE APPROACH OF A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW DIVING DOWN THROUGH ERN CO/NM. AS THIS
AMPLIFYING WAVE CROSSES THE GULF STATES/NRN GULF AND SOUTHEAST
SAT/SAT NIGHT... THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN QUICKLY AND
TRACK TO THE NE... STAYING FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO BE OF LITTLE
CONSEQUENCE FOR CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER... A FEW MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ATLANTIC MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW TO
SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP INTO OUR FAR SE CWA OVERNIGHT. THE LOW LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT DRY BELOW 5 000 FT... WHICH WOULD
MAKE ANY PRECIP VERY LIGHT WITH ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS. PARTIAL
THICKNESSES SUPPORT THIS PRECIP BEING MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW... AND THIS
IS ALSO WHAT IS INDICATED BY THE TOP-DOWN METHODOLOGY... AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD SATURATION UP TO AND ABOVE -20C WITH A COLD
COLUMN. WILL BRING IN SMALL POPS IN OUR SOUTHEAST SAT NIGHT BUT WITH
MINIMAL QPF AND NO NOTABLE IMPACT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SAT
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH SOME RECOVERY IN THICKNESSES. LOWS
FROM THE UPPER 20S NW TO LOWER 30S SE. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...
SUNDAYS PROMINENT WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS AND THE SURFACE LOW OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST. WHILE MUCH OF THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OFF OF THE
COAST...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TO CREEP INTO THE
EASTERN THIRD OF OUR CWA ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE STORM. AT THIS
TIME MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN WITH
POTENTIALLY SOME WET SNOW MIXED IN PER NOMOGRAM THICKNESSES. DRY LOW
LEVELS MAY KEEP SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND
FOR A WHILE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD EXIT TO THE
EAST BY SUNDAY EVENING AT THE LATEST. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM AT THIS TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY SHIFT
IN THE GUIDANCE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 50 DEGREES WITH AN
UNUSUAL TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION OF WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST
AND COLDEST IN THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO GREATER CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE STORM. LOWS MONDAY
MORNING NEAR FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS.
MONDAY WILL BEGIN WITH A LULL BETWEEN THE EXITING COASTAL SYSTEM AND
THE NEXT LARGE UNORGANIZED SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL
USHER IN ARCTIC AIR FROM CANADA. TIMING OF THE WEAK FRONT THAT WILL
SIGNAL THE ARRIVAL OF THIS COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY
SO TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH WILL STILL MAKE IT TO THE LOW 50S WITH
MID 40S IN THE TRIAD. AS THIS IS A CONTINENTAL AIRMASS...THERE IS
NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM AT ALL AND PW VALUES REMAIN BELOW
A HALF OF AN INCH. THAT BEING SAID...THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...BEGINNING MOST LIKELY AFTER 15Z ON
MONDAY AS RAIN. ANYTHING THAT FALLS SHOULD REMAIN RAIN UNTIL LATER
IN THE EVENING WHEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO ALL SNOW
AFTER 3Z TUESDAY AS NOMOGRAM THICKNESSES TANK. BY THIS TIME
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA AND ANY SNOW
SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE AT THIS TIME. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S NW TO LOW 30S SE.
SOME INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY BUT OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE AS QPF VALUES REMAIN VERY LOW.
EVENTUALLY THE VERY DRY AIR WILL TAKE OVER AND THE COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL BECOME THE MAIN STORY AS HIGHS TUESDAY ONLY MAKE THE LOW TO MID
40S AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT DIVE INTO THE MID 20S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
THE COLDEST DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES AND
WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS. DESPITE THE
COLD...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ON THURSDAY THE UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO FINALLY LIFT OUT AND TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 605 AM FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD AT INT/GSO THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS... HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OVER ERN TAFS THROUGH
13Z... WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT THESE SITES BY 15Z. A FRONTAL ZONE
NOW SITS NEAR THE NC COAST... AND LOW PRESSURE NOW JUST EAST OF ILM
WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NE ALONG THE FRONT. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN
MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES WILL AFFECT ERN TERMINALS
(RDU/RWI/FAY) BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z... AS A POWERFUL DISTURBANCE ALOFT
CROSSES THE REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING A QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT
PRECIP LASTING JUST AN HOUR OR TWO... MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SNOW MIXED WITH LIGHT RAIN. AFTER ABOUT 15Z... VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE AT ALL SITES FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS FROM THE N AND NW WILL BE 10-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 18-23 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON... AFTER
WHICH TIME SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME LIGHT FROM THE
NORTH FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT... WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING.
LOOKING BEYOND 12Z SAT MORNING... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND... ALTHOUGH A LOW TRACKING OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST MAY BRING A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP TO FAY EARLY SUN MORNING. THE
CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS WILL BE LOW. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND
PATCHY PRECIP TO ALL SITES MON AFTERNOON INTO TUE. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/SMITH
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
944 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
ND AT MID EVENING IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER EXPECTED...
SO WE MADE MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH ABOUT 08 UTC TO ACCOUNT
FOR THAT AND RECENT RAP AND HRRR SIMULATIONS. OTHERWISE...WE
MERELY BLENDED OBSERVATIONS INTO THE NEAR-TERM HOURLY FORECAST
FIELDS WITH THIS UPDATE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF OVERALL CHANGE.
NO CHANGES TO OUR HEADLINES...BUT THE BRUNT OF STRONG WINDS IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN MOMENTUM TRANSFER INTO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE MORE UNIFORMLY EFFICIENT ACROSS THE AREA...UNLIKE
THIS EVENING. BLIZZARD POTENTIAL WILL BE DRIVEN ENTIRELY BY THE
AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT FALLS WITHIN THE BLIZZARD-WARNED...WITH THE
00 UTC NAM MUCH MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW SHOWERS THAN RECENT RAP
AND HRRR RUNS. THE LATTER MODELS SUGGEST THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THAT PART OF THE FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 623 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016
WE INCREASED LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT TONIGHT GIVEN EXPECTED MIXING
AND ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BASED ON TEMPERATURE
TRENDS UPSTREAM INTO SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ONLY
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE REST OF THE EVENING FORECAST...AS
SHOWERS ARE INCREASING OVER NORTHWEST ND AND WINDS ARE BEGINNING
TO TREND UPWARD ON A MORE WIDESPREAD BASIS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THAT IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ND AS OF 0015 UTC. WE ARE
MAKING NO CHANGES TO THE HIGH WIND OR BLIZZARD WARNING WITH THIS
UPDATE CYCLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW STRETCHING OVER SASKATCHEWAN
WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA. TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SLIDE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE COLD FRONT IS
WORKING ITS WAY OVER EASTERN MONTANA. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHILE STRONG GUSTS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN/CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES RIDGE AXIS SLIDING INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE WITH
TROUGH WORKING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN INTO EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD
AREA OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/VIRGA CONTINUES TO WORK OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BEHIND THE RIDGE.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WEAK SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE COME
INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING THE UPCOMING WIND/SNOW
EVENT. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST/SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT WITH UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY
EARLY SUNDAY. AS IT MOVES ACROSS...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND WRAP AROUND SNOW WILL DEVELOP TO ITS WEST...PRIMARILY
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE NORTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WHILE THAT OCCURS...COOLER AIRMASS WILL SLIDE
INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL PROMOTE MIXING OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW 50-60KT 850 MB
WINDS. EXPECT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE LEFT THE HIGH WIND WARNING MAINLY IN
TACT BUT HAVE BUMPED UP THE TIMING A BIT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN END.
THE WIND WILL COMBINE WITH THE DEVELOPING SNOW OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY TO BRING GREATLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. THEREFORE...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS UNTOUCHED.
ON SUNDAY...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHING IN BY MID-DAY.
PERIODS OF SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER AREA UNDER BLIZZARD
WARNING. ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...WITH THE STRONG WINDS IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO RESULT IN
ZERO VISIBILITY IN OPEN COUNTRY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016
RESIDUAL BLOWING SNOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG WINDS AND LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT. H850 WINDS ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE AT 50-60 KNOTS FROM THE
GFS SUNDAY EVENING...THEN WEAKENS A BIT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BUT
SLOWLY SUNDAY NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE BLIZZARD WARNING (WHICH
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING) MAY NEED TO BE "CHANGED" TO
A HIGH WIND WARNING OR A WIND ADVISORY AT THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT.
MODELS ARE INDICATING LINGERING STRONG WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND DURING
THE DAY MONDAY...BUT MAY NOT REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY.
THEREAFTER THE UPPER LOW EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP INTO A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST WITH A LARGE H500 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND CANADA. THIS LEAVES A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL PRETTY MUCH DEFINE THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH MILD AIR SOUTHWEST AND COLD TEMPERATURES EAST. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS WILL RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW DURING THE WEEK...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 944 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT...AND WILL BE VERY
STRONG ON SUNDAY WHEN WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 KT ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND. A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS ON
SUNDAY WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED AT TIMES IN THE SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN PARTS
OF CENTRAL ND WHERE THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE MOST INTENSE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR NDZ003-
011-012-019>022-034-042-045.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ001-
002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ004-005-013-023-
025.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ035>037-046>048-
050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
300 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN ONTARIO.
THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC SATURDAY. SUNDAY A CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. MONDAY THE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS MICHIGAN AND INTO OHIO.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS ACROSS MICHIGAN AND INTO
NORTHERN INDIANA IN AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A
WEAK TROUGH. THE NAM ALSO SHOWS A SHORT WAVE IN THE GENERAL AREA
AS WELL. FOLLOWING 850MB MOISTURE WHICH IS A GOOD PROXY SO
FAR...THIS MOISTURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WILL USE THE NAM12 850MB RH AS A STARTING TEMPLATE FOR SKY COVER
GRIDS TONIGHT. THE HRRR BRINGS IN SOME PATCHY FLURRIES BUT FOR
NOW WILL LEAVE DRY. WILL GO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF MAV TEMP
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... SATURDAY MORNING
THE WEAK TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST IN THE MORNING AS ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER TROUGH DROP TOWARD THE AREA. ALSO A SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS
SERN CANADA NORTH OF THE REGION. BEST MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF
THE AREA CLOSER TO THIS SYSTEM SO AM EXPECTING AT LEAST PARTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 40. SATURDAY NIGHT
WE SHOULD SEE WEAK WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COLD
FRONT FROM THE CANADIAN LOW STALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES.
SUNDAY ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN FROM
SCNTRL CANADA. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY
AND SHOULD BRING RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST TO BEGIN WITH BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT
WILL MOVE CHANCE POPS EAST AND INCREASE TO LIKELY WEST. HIGHS
ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINTER WILL BE RETURNING FOR NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR AREA
WIDE SNOW SHOWERS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES. CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MONDAY MAY BE
MARGINAL...AND WE MAY SEE A RA/SN MIX. IT WILL GET COLD ENOUGH BY
MONDAY NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE
CONFINED MORE TO THE SNOWBELT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW REORGANIZES
ITSELF AROUND JAMES BAY. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WE START TO SEE
SOME SPREAD IN THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
THE GFS THE COLDEST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAST BIT OF MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA WILL LIFT TO VFR
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BEYOND THAT EXPECTING ALL TAF SITES TO BE
VFR THROUGH 18Z SAT. THERE WILL BE A WEAK TROUGH THAT CROSSES THE
AREA TONIGHT WITH A MID CEILING BETWEEN BKN035 AND BKN050. TOL
WOULD LIKELY HAVE THE ONLY REAL CHANCE AT AN MVFR CEILING FOR A
TIME TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE UNDER 12 KNOTS AND GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE ON
SATURDAY TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AS A CLIPPER BRUSHES THE GREAT LAKES.
BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN TO DECREASE IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM WESTERN SUPERIOR. THIS LOW WILL STALL AND REMAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO BE STRONG THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES. DURING THIS PERIOD 20 TO 25 KNOTS LOOK COMMON.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1056 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT...BRINGING
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
START THE NEW WORK WEEK AS A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
LAST HURRAH OF SNOW FROM THE UPPER SHORT WAVE IS PRESSING SWRD
THRU THE CENTRAL COS RIGHT NOW. VIZ HAS OCCASIONALLY BE INTO LIFR
AT BFD...BUT THEY ARE IMPROVING. IT JUST STARTED SNOWING OUT THE
WINDOW AND THE CENTRAL MTNS WILL SEE MAINLY FLURRIES OR LIGHT SHSN
INTO THE EARLY AFTN. IT MAY EVEN SNOW AT KMNDT - JUST AS HEAVILY
AS IT DID ALL LAST NIGHT. ALL IN ALL...IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR IN
THE AFTN WITH CLEARING OVER WRN PA ATTM. FLOW BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY THRU THE REST OF THE DAY. BUT CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE
NRN MTNS ALL DAY.
PREV...
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO STREAK UP OVER MY SERN ZONES...WITH
FLURRIES FARTHER WEST OVER THE LAURELS AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
HRRR AND RAP SHOW THE SNOW SHUTTING OFF QUICKLY BY MID MORNING.
QPF ON THE ORDER OF A TRACE TO UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH REMAINS
THE CONSENSUS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
SO ACCUMULATIONS IF THERE ARE ANY WILL PROBABLY BE CONFINED TO
GRASSY SURFACES.
FARTHER WEST A SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS HELPING TRIGGER SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS THAT ARE GAINING A LITTLE PUSH FROM SOME OROGRAPHIC
FORCING. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME
LINGERING FLURRIES OVER THE USUAL HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NW...AS
THE UPPER HEIGHTS REBOUND RAPIDLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY.
CLOUDS WILL BREAK OVER OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
TEMPS WILL DROP OFF INTO THE 20S REGION-WIDE TONIGHT...WHICH FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH THE MOST CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN
AREAS...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES. HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THE
TIME OF YEAR...RISING INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN IS MADE TO EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN US
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW FORECAST TO DROP
STEEPLY SE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO OHIO VALLEY. AT
THIS TIME THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF DO NOT GENERATE ANY KIND OF
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW/HEAVY PRECIP THREAT...BUT THE ENSEMBLE
PLUMES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH ANYWHERE
FROM AN INCH OR TWO TO A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW. ECENS SHOWS A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...FAVORING THE HIGHER WESTERN AND NORTHERN
AREAS. THE MAIN THING IS THERE IS NO INDICATION OF A SINGLE ROBUST
SURFACE LOW THAT WOULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
STORMINESS...YET.
THE SEEMINGLY MOST CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT THE UPPER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING OVER THE EASTERN US...DRIVING
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION...AND A CHUNK OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
DOWN INTO THE GULF STATES. THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE NORMAL LAKE
EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO LATE WEEK AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT KEEP US ON THE
CHILLY AND UNSETTLED SIDE.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THIS AFTN...BUT SOME MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER LATE THIS AM AND EARLY AFTN IN THE CENTRAL
TAF SITES - WITH JST AND BFD LIKELY IMPROVING FASTER THAN UNV.
WIND WILL BACK WEST THEN SW AS HIGH PRES SLIDES IN .
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
MON-TUE...SNOW/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY W MTNS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
643 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP AND JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST EARLY TODAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ITS WAKE AND
BRINGS FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL START THE NEW WORKWEEK AS A COMPLEX AND SLOW MOVING STORM
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO STREAK UP OVER MY SERN ZONES...WITH
FLURRIES FARTHER WEST OVER THE LAURELS AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
HRRR AND RAP SHOW THE SNOW SHUTTING OFF QUICKLY BY MID MORNING.
QPF ON THE ORDER OF A TRACE TO UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH REMAINS
THE CONSENSUS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
SO ACCUMULATIONS IF THERE ARE ANY WILL PROBABLY BE CONFINED TO
GRASSY SURFACES.
FARTHER WEST A SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS HELPING TRIGGER SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS THAT ARE GAINING A LITTLE PUSH FROM SOME OROGRAPHIC
FORCING. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME
LINGERING FLURRIES OVER THE USUAL HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NW...AS
THE UPPER HEIGHTS REBOUND RAPIDLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY.
CLOUDS WILL BREAK OVER OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
TEMPS WILL DROP OFF INTO THE 20S REGION-WIDE TONIGHT...WHICH FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH THE MOST CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN
AREAS...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES. HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THE
TIME OF YEAR...RISING INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN IS MADE TO EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN US
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW FORECAST TO DROP
STEEPLY SE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO OHIO VALLEY. AT
THIS TIME THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF DO NOT GENERATE ANY KIND OF
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW/HEAVY PRECIP THREAT...BUT THE ENSEMBLE
PLUMES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH ANYWHERE
FROM AN INCH OR TWO TO A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW. ECENS SHOWS A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...FAVORING THE HIGHER WESTERN AND NORTHERN
AREAS. THE MAIN THING IS THERE IS NO INDICATION OF A SINGLE ROBUST
SURFACE LOW THAT WOULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
STORMINESS...YET.
THE SEEMINGLY MOST CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT THE UPPER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING OVER THE EASTERN US...DRIVING
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION...AND A CHUNK OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
DOWN INTO THE GULF STATES. THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE NORMAL LAKE
EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO LATE WEEK AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT KEEP US ON THE
CHILLY AND UNSETTLED SIDE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z TAFS SENT.
NOT MANY CHANGES.
SOME SNOW TO THE SE. ALSO A PATCH OF SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE
OFFICE.
WILL BE WATCHING THE RADAR CLOSELY...CONCERN TO HOW FAR WEST
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD MOVE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ON THE COLD FRONT AND TRACKS NE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING.
FURTHER WEST...STILL EXPECTING MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT
JST AND BFD TODAY.
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD IMPROVE BY THIS EVENING...AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
MON-TUE...SNOW/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY W MTNS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ICE EFFECTS AT MARIETTA WILL CONTINUE FOR QUITE A WHILE. BUT
FLOWS ARE NOT VERY HIGH. THE LOCAL STREAMS WILL START TO COME DOWN
SOME...BUT SHOW DAILY AFTN BUMPS UP AS RESIDUAL SNOW MELTS WITH
AFTN TEMPS IN THE 40S EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHERE PATCHY SNOW
LINGERS IN THE SE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION...AS MORE RAIN AND SNOW
NOT THAT FAR AWAY.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
HYDROLOGY...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
624 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP AND JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST EARLY TODAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ITS WAKE AND
BRINGS FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL START THE NEW WORKWEEK AS A COMPLEX AND SLOW MOVING STORM
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO STREAK UP OVER MY SERN ZONES...WITH
FLURRIES FARTHER WEST OVER THE LAURELS AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
HRRR AND RAP SHOW THE SNOW SHUTTING OFF QUICKLY BY MID MORNING.
QPF ON THE ORDER OF A TRACE TO UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH REMAINS
THE CONSENSUS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
SO ACCUMULATIONS IF THERE ARE ANY WILL PROBABLY BE CONFINED TO
GRASSY SURFACES.
FARTHER WEST A SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS HELPING TRIGGER SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS THAT ARE GAINING A LITTLE PUSH FROM SOME OROGRAPHIC
FORCING. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME
LINGERING FLURRIES OVER THE USUAL HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NW...AS
THE UPPER HEIGHTS REBOUND RAPIDLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY.
CLOUDS WILL BREAK OVER OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
TEMPS WILL DROP OFF INTO THE 20S REGION-WIDE TONIGHT...WHICH FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH THE MOST CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN
AREAS...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES. HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THE
TIME OF YEAR...RISING INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN IS MADE TO EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN US
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW FORECAST TO DROP
STEEPLY SE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO OHIO VALLEY. AT
THIS TIME THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF DO NOT GENERATE ANY KIND OF
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW/HEAVY PRECIP THREAT...BUT THE ENSEMBLE
PLUMES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH ANYWHERE
FROM AN INCH OR TWO TO A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW. ECENS SHOWS A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...FAVORING THE HIGHER WESTERN AND NORTHERN
AREAS. THE MAIN THING IS THERE IS NO INDICATION OF A SINGLE ROBUST
SURFACE LOW THAT WOULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
STORMINESS...YET.
THE SEEMINGLY MOST CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT THE UPPER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING OVER THE EASTERN US...DRIVING
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION...AND A CHUNK OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
DOWN INTO THE GULF STATES. THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE NORMAL LAKE
EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO LATE WEEK AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT KEEP US ON THE
CHILLY AND UNSETTLED SIDE.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
09Z TAFS SENT.
NOT MANY CHANGES.
SOME SNOW TO THE SE.
WILL BE WATCHING THE RADAR CLOSELY...CONCERN TO HOW FAR WEST
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD MOVE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ON THE COLD FRONT AND TRACKS NE.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN ACROSS CENTRAL PA THRU 06Z WILL BE MVFR
STRATOCU DECK/SCT FLURRIES AT KBFD/KJST ASSOC WITH WEAK OROGRAPHIC
LIFT OVR THE MTNS.
FOCUS LATE TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TOWARD SE PA...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRES
LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST. ALL THE LATEST MDL DATA SUGGESTS KLNS
WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD
TO A PERIOD OF LOW /IFR/ VSBYS AT KLNS BTWN 08Z-12Z FRIDAY. LATEST
HRRR OUTPUT AS OF 03Z SUGGESTS THE SIG VIS REDUCTIONS MAY REMAIN
JUST EAST OF KLNS...BUT TOO CLOSE TO CALL ATTM. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN AT LEAST MVFR CONDS AT KBFD AND KJST FRIDAY MORNING WITH OCNL
-SHSN. LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR PRODUCTS SUGGEST
OCNL IFR CONDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT KBFD/KJST EARLY FRIDAY AM...AS
BLYR MOISTURE/-SHSN INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
MOVING IN FROM THE W.
ANY SNOW AT KLNS SHOULD END BY ARND 11Z. FOCUS WILL THEN BE ON
LINGERING STRATOCU ACROSS THE W MTNS. MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EVEN
KBFD/KJST WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDS BY AFTN...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
MON-TUE...SNOW/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY W MTNS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ICE EFFECTS AT MARIETTA WILL CONTINUE FOR QUITE A WHILE. BUT
FLOWS ARE NOT VERY HIGH. THE LOCAL STREAMS WILL START TO COME DOWN
SOME...BUT SHOW DAILY AFTN BUMPS UP AS RESIDUAL SNOW MELTS WITH
AFTN TEMPS IN THE 40S EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHERE PATCHY SNOW
LINGERS IN THE SE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION...AS MORE RAIN AND SNOW
NOT THAT FAR AWAY.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
433 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP AND JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST TODAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ITS WAKE AND BRINGS
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
START THE NEW WORKWEEK AS A COMPLEX AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF SNOW HAS BROKEN OUT AT
COATSVILLE...JUST EAST OF THE LANCASTER BORDER. HRRR AND RAP BOTH
AGREE IN BRINGING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A
BIT OF SLEET OR RAIN...OVER THE FAR SERN PORTION OF THE CWA
THROUGH SUNRISE...BASICALLY BEING OVER BY MID MORNING. QPF ON THE
ORDER OF A TRACE TO UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH REMAINS THE CONSENSUS
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO
ACCUMULATIONS IF THERE ARE ANY WILL PROBABLY BE CONFINED TO GRASSY
SURFACES.
FURTHER WEST A SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS HELPING TRIGGER SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THAT ARE GAINING A LITTLE PUSH FROM SOME
OROGRAPHIC FORCING. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THESE
AREAS.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME
LINGERING FLURRIES OVER THE USUAL HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NW...AS
THE UPPER HEIGHTS REBOUND RAPIDLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY.
CLOUDS WILL BREAK OVER OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
TEMPS WILL DROP OFF INTO THE 20S REGION-WIDE TONIGHT...WHICH FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH THE MOST CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN
AREAS...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES. HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THE
TIME OF YEAR...RISING INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN IS MADE TO EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN US
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW FORECAST TO DROP
STEEPLY SE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO OHIO VALLEY. AT
THIS TIME THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF DO NOT GENERATE ANY KIND OF
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW/HEAVY PRECIP THREAT...BUT THE ENSEMBLE
PLUMES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH ANYWHERE
FROM AN INCH OR TWO TO A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW. ECENS SHOWS A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...FAVORING THE HIGHER WESTERN AND NORTHERN
AREAS. THE MAIN THING IS THERE IS NO INDICATION OF A SINGLE ROBUST
SURFACE LOW THAT WOULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
STORMINESS...YET.
THE SEEMINGLY MOST CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT THE UPPER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING OVER THE EASTERN US...DRIVING
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION...AND A CHUNK OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
DOWN INTO THE GULF STATES. THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE NORMAL LAKE
EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO LATE WEEK AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT KEEP US ON THE
CHILLY AND UNSETTLED SIDE.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
09Z TAFS SENT.
NOT MANY CHANGES.
SOME SNOW TO THE SE.
WILL BE WATCHING THE RADAR CLOSELY...CONCERN TO HOW FAR WEST
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD MOVE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ON THE COLD FRONT AND TRACKS NE.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN ACROSS CENTRAL PA THRU 06Z WILL BE MVFR
STRATOCU DECK/SCT FLURRIES AT KBFD/KJST ASSOC WITH WEAK OROGRAPHIC
LIFT OVR THE MTNS.
FOCUS LATE TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TOWARD SE PA...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRES
LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST. ALL THE LATEST MDL DATA SUGGESTS KLNS
WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD
TO A PERIOD OF LOW /IFR/ VSBYS AT KLNS BTWN 08Z-12Z FRIDAY. LATEST
HRRR OUTPUT AS OF 03Z SUGGESTS THE SIG VIS REDUCTIONS MAY REMAIN
JUST EAST OF KLNS...BUT TOO CLOSE TO CALL ATTM. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN AT LEAST MVFR CONDS AT KBFD AND KJST FRIDAY MORNING WITH OCNL
-SHSN. LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR PRODUCTS SUGGEST
OCNL IFR CONDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT KBFD/KJST EARLY FRIDAY AM...AS
BLYR MOISTURE/-SHSN INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
MOVING IN FROM THE W.
ANY SNOW AT KLNS SHOULD END BY ARND 11Z. FOCUS WILL THEN BE ON
LINGERING STRATOCU ACROSS THE W MTNS. MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EVEN
KBFD/KJST WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDS BY AFTN...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
MON-TUE...SNOW/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY W MTNS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ICE EFFECTS AT MARIETTA WILL CONTINUE FOR QUITE A WHILE. BUT
FLOWS ARE NOT VERY HIGH. THE LOCAL STREAMS WILL START TO COME DOWN
SOME...BUT SHOW DAILY AFTN BUMPS UP AS RESIDUAL SNOW MELTS WITH
AFTN TEMPS IN THE 40S EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHERE PATCHY SNOW
LINGERS IN THE SE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION...AS MORE RAIN AND SNOW
NOT THAT FAR AWAY.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
HYDROLOGY...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
312 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP AND JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST TODAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ITS WAKE AND BRINGS
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
START THE NEW WORKWEEK AS A COMPLEX AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF SNOW HAS BROKEN OUT AT
COATSVILLE...JUST EAST OF THE LANCASTER BORDER. HRRR AND RAP BOTH
AGREE IN BRINGING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A
BIT OF SLEET OR RAIN...OVER THE FAR SERN PORTION OF THE CWA
THROUGH SUNRISE...BASICALLY BEING OVER BY MID MORNING. QPF ON THE
ORDER OF A TRACE TO UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH REMAINS THE CONSENSUS
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO
ACCUMULATIONS IF THERE ARE ANY WILL PROBABLY BE CONFINED TO GRASSY
SURFACES.
FURTHER WEST A SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS HELPING TRIGGER SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THAT ARE GAINING A LITTLE PUSH FROM SOME
OROGRAPHIC FORCING. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THESE
AREAS.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME
LINGERING FLURRIES OVER THE USUAL HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NW...AS
THE UPPER HEIGHTS REBOUND RAPIDLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY.
CLOUDS WILL BREAK OVER OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
TEMPS WILL DROP OFF INTO THE 20S REGION-WIDE TONIGHT...WHICH FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH THE MOST CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN
AREAS...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES. HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THE
TIME OF YEAR...RISING INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN IS MADE TO EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN US
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW FORECAST TO DROP
STEEPLY SE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO OHIO VALLEY. AT
THIS TIME THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF DO NOT GENERATE ANY KIND OF
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW/HEAVY PRECIP THREAT...BUT THE ENSEMBLE
PLUMES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH ANYWHERE
FROM AN INCH OR TWO TO A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW. ECENS SHOWS A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...FAVORING THE HIGHER WESTERN AND NORTHERN
AREAS. THE MAIN THING IS THERE IS NO INDICATION OF A SINGLE ROBUST
SURFACE LOW THAT WOULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
STORMINESS...YET.
THE SEEMINGLY MOST CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT THE UPPER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING OVER THE EASTERN US...DRIVING
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION...AND A CHUNK OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
DOWN INTO THE GULF STATES. THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE NORMAL LAKE
EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO LATE WEEK AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT KEEP US ON THE
CHILLY AND UNSETTLED SIDE.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADD A LINE AFTER SUNSET...AS WINDS DIE DOWN.
WILL BE WATCHING THE RADAR CLOSELY...CONCERN TO HOW FAR WEST
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD MOVE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ON THE COLD FRONT AND TRACKS NE.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN ACROSS CENTRAL PA THRU 06Z WILL BE MVFR
STRATOCU DECK/SCT FLURRIES AT KBFD/KJST ASSOC WITH WEAK OROGRAPHIC
LIFT OVR THE MTNS.
FOCUS LATE TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TOWARD SE PA...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRES
LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST. ALL THE LATEST MDL DATA SUGGESTS KLNS
WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD
TO A PERIOD OF LOW /IFR/ VSBYS AT KLNS BTWN 08Z-12Z FRIDAY. LATEST
HRRR OUTPUT AS OF 03Z SUGGESTS THE SIG VIS REDUCTIONS MAY REMAIN
JUST EAST OF KLNS...BUT TOO CLOSE TO CALL ATTM. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN AT LEAST MVFR CONDS AT KBFD AND KJST FRIDAY MORNING WITH OCNL
-SHSN. LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR PRODUCTS SUGGEST
OCNL IFR CONDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT KBFD/KJST EARLY FRIDAY AM...AS
BLYR MOISTURE/-SHSN INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
MOVING IN FROM THE W.
ANY SNOW AT KLNS SHOULD END BY ARND 11Z. FOCUS WILL THEN BE ON
LINGERING STRATOCU ACROSS THE W MTNS. MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EVEN
KBFD/KJST WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDS BY AFTN...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
MON-TUE...SNOW/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY W MTNS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ICE EFFECTS AT MARIETTA WILL CONTINUE FOR QUITE A WHILE. BUT
FLOWS ARE NOT VERY HIGH. THE LOCAL STREAMS WILL START TO COME DOWN
SOME...BUT SHOW DAILY AFTN BUMPS UP AS RESIDUAL SNOW MELTS WITH
AFTN TEMPS IN THE 40S EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHERE PATCHY SNOW
LINGERS IN THE SE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION...AS MORE RAIN AND SNOW
NOT THAT FAR AWAY.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1248 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP THE EAST COAST MAY SPREAD A VERY
LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW INTO SOUTHEASTERN PA TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SNOWBELT WITH
DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING BY 06Z
OVER SOUTHERN YORK AND LANCASTER...THEN MIXED RAIN AND SNOW
CHANGING TO SNOW SNOW SHORTLY AFTERWARDS AND LASTING THROUGH 13Z.
STILL EXPECTING A COASTING TO AS MUCH AS 1-2 INCHES OVER EXTREME
EASTERN PORTIONS OF LANCASTER COUNTY.
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON SCHEDULE JUST SOUTH OF
WILMINGTON NC LATE THIS EVENING WILL TRACK ALONG THE OUTER NC
BANKS OVERNIGHT AND OFFSHORE BEFORE HEADING NORTHEAST AND WELL
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY.
CLOUDS WILL TAKE A BREAK IN THE CENTRAL COS TONIGHT AS THE LLVL
FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE LESS CYCLONIC. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
SCT/ISOLD SHSN IN THE NW THO AS THE STRONG VORT MAX NEAR PA FROM
THE W. THE FLOW IS STILL OFF THE LAKE AND UPSLOPE INTO THE HIGHER
ELEVS OF PA. JUST A DUSTING THERE AS WELL. MINS WILL BE LOWEST IN
THE NW WHERE CAA BRINGS 8H TEMPS DOWN TO DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW 0C.
THE OFFSHORE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NW AND THE AXIS OF THE JET
STREAM PASSES OUR LONGITUDE EVEN BEFORE SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOULD SCOOT EAST OF LANCASTER COUNTY BY OR AFTER 700 AM.
IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR ON ALL FRONTS WITH THE LOW WELL OFF TO THE
NE AND VORT MAX/SHORT WAVE OVERHEAD IN THE MORNING. WILL LINGER
MENTION OF --SHSN IN THE ALLEGHENIES FOR THE MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...THE NWRLY WIND WILL PICK BACK UP. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
OUT OVER MOST OF THE CWA. TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY NEAR NORMAL FOR
MAXES WITH NIL ADVECTION AND 8H TEMPS AROUND -10C.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODERATELY AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
THE CONUS AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOW DOWN THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
PATTERN WILL TRANSITIONS TO A WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. WITH A CORRESPONDING DOWNSTREAM UPPER TROF OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
AFTER A QUIET START TO THE PERIOD THIS WEEKEND...THE WEATHER WILL
TREND COLDER AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL SHOTS
OF ARCTIC AIR AND SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION. THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN AT THIS POINT
APPEARS LOW TO MODERATE. MAIN THREAT WILL BE IN THE MONDAY TO
TUESDAY TIME FRAME...WITH POSSIBLE COASTAL DEVELOPMENT STILL
HINTED AT THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. LATEST TRENDS HOWEVER ARE
FOR DEVELOPMENT TO BE FARTHER EAST THAN YESTERDAYS SOLUTIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADD A LINE AFTER SUNSET...AS WINDS DIE DOWN.
WILL BE WATCHING THE RADAR CLOSELY...CONCERN TO HOW FAR WEST
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD MOVE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ON THE COLD FRONT AND TRACKS NE.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN ACROSS CENTRAL PA THRU 06Z WILL BE MVFR
STRATOCU DECK/SCT FLURRIES AT KBFD/KJST ASSOC WITH WEAK OROGRAPHIC
LIFT OVR THE MTNS.
FOCUS LATE TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TOWARD SE PA...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRES
LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST. ALL THE LATEST MDL DATA SUGGESTS KLNS
WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD
TO A PERIOD OF LOW /IFR/ VSBYS AT KLNS BTWN 08Z-12Z FRIDAY. LATEST
HRRR OUTPUT AS OF 03Z SUGGESTS THE SIG VIS REDUCTIONS MAY REMAIN
JUST EAST OF KLNS...BUT TOO CLOSE TO CALL ATTM. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN AT LEAST MVFR CONDS AT KBFD AND KJST FRIDAY MORNING WITH OCNL
-SHSN. LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR PRODUCTS SUGGEST
OCNL IFR CONDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT KBFD/KJST EARLY FRIDAY AM...AS
BLYR MOISTURE/-SHSN INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
MOVING IN FROM THE W.
ANY SNOW AT KLNS SHOULD END BY ARND 11Z. FOCUS WILL THEN BE ON
LINGERING STRATOCU ACROSS THE W MTNS. MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EVEN
KBFD/KJST WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDS BY AFTN...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
MON-TUE...SNOW/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY W MTNS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
OBVIOUS ICE EFFECTS AT MARIETTA WILL CONTINUE FOR QUITE A WHILE.
BUT FLOWS ARE NOT VERY HIGH. THE LOCAL STREAMS WILL START TO COME
DOWN SOME...BUT SHOW DAILY AFTN BUMPS UP AS RESIDUAL SNOW MELTS
WITH AFTN TEMPS IN THE 40S EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHERE PATCHY
SNOW LINGERS IN THE SE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION...AS MORE RAIN AND SNOW
NOT THAT FAR AWAY.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
HYDROLOGY...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
956 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WHILE STRONG LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...USHERING IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM EST...REPORTS ARE COMING IN OF BRIEF SLEET AND SNOW
FLURRIES IN A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG INTERSTATE 85 FROM SPARTANBURG TO
SALISBURY. THIS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH LATE EVENING AS RADAR SHOWS
WEAK 20 TO 25 DBZ RETURNS FALLING FROM 8000 FT CLOUD BASES...AND
SCATTERED FLURRIES HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST IN AFFECTED AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE POTENT CLOSED
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST TOWARD THE AL/GA BORDER LATE THIS
EVENING...AND ASSOCIATED RAPID CYCLOGENESIS UNDERWAY OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COASTLINE. DESPITE THE EVENING EXCITEMENT OF BRIEF FROZEN
PRECIP FALLING FROM HIGH CLOUD BASES...THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR
OUR FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO BE LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF A CHESTER
SC TO MONROE NC LINE. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES OVER WHERE
ANY HEAVIER BANDING STRUCTURES MIGHT SET UP WEST OF THE OFFSHORE
LOW...WITH EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN SECTIONS OF THE
CAROLINAS THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATES. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER
FRONTOGENESIS COULD WELL WRAP SHOWERY ACTIVITY WESTWARD THROUGH THE
PIEDMONT TO OVERLAP WITH THE INCREASINGLY COLD PROFILES NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR. THE LATEST RAP AND NAM WET BULB PROFILES
NEAR CLT DEPICT SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN ALL BUT THE VERY LOWEST
FEW HUNDRED FEET OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT SNOW
VERSUS RAIN AS THE PRIMARY PTYPE WITH ANY SHOWERS REACHING WESTWARD
INTO THE LOWER PIEDMONT. POPS HAVE BEEN PUSHED INTO THE LOW LIKELY
RANGE FOR FAR SE UNION COUNTY NC AND A DUSTING OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON GRASSY SURFACES THERE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPS WERE COOLED SLIGHTLY BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS...DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION...AND SOME
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING IN SPOTS.
ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH REACHING THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
FURTHER DEEPEN THE OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE DAY. OUR REGION
SHOULD REMAIN DRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING DEEPER MOISTURE...BUT GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD
MAKE IT BACK TO AROUND NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BY THE TIME THE FRONT
ARRIVES...LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE UPPER
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. 12Z GFS360 INDICATES THAT A LARGE FIELD OF
BROAD Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NE GA ON MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AND
PASSING MID LEVEL SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL SUPPORT PRECIP CHCS
SPREADING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
BETWEEN 18Z MON TO 0Z TUES...H85 WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NW AND
INCREASE TO 25-30 KTS...SUPPORTING UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE TN BORDER.
GIVEN THE SFC TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES...PRECIP
SHOULD FALL AS EITHER SNOW OR A COLD RAIN. SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE MTNS IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOULD MIX OVER TO RAIN WITHIN THE
VALLEY FLOOR BY MID DAY. TEMPS ACROSS THE RIDGES SHOULD YIELD HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWFALL THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. AREAS EAST OF THE
MTNS SHOULD SEE ONLY RAINFALL AS HIGH TEMPS WARM TO THE 40S ACROSS
THE REGION.
MODERATE TO STRONG H85 CAA WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MTN LOCATIONS COOLING TO -12 TO -14 C BY 12Z
TUES. MIN TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE TEENS ACROSS THE MTNS
TO LOW 20S WITHIN THE VALLEYS...UPPER 20S TO THE EAST. COLD H85
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE MTNS THROUGH THE DAY...SUPPORTED BY
THICK CLOUD COVER AND GUSTY NW WINDS. CATE TO LIKELY POPS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING...REDUCING
TO CHC POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOOTHILL TO PIEDMONT AREAS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY DRY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
THE MTNS TO AROUND 40 EAST. MON AND TUES...TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECAST
GIVES 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS TO 1-2
INCHES ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF THE TN BORDER COUNTIES. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...ONE MORE PIECE OF CHANNELED VORTICITY WILL
DIVE THRU THE EASTERN CONUS TROF TUESDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING QG
FORCING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. FROM WEDNESDAY THRU
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE EASTERN TROF WILL LIFT OUT SOMEWHAT...RESULTING
IN MORE ZONAL FLOW ATOP THE CWFA. THEN ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORT WAVE
SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CARVE OUT THE
EASTERN TROF AGAIN BY SATURDAY.
AT THE SFC...A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE GRADUALLY FILLING
OVER THE NORTHEAST...KEEPING OUR AREA UNDER PERSISTENT LLVL NWLY
FLOW. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BANK UP ALONG THE USUAL NW FLOW
UPSLOPE AREAS...BUT SHUD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE TN LINE...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT
THRU WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE AREA SHUD BE MOSTLY CLEAR
AND QUITE CHILLY. THICKNESSES AND 850 MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH STILL SOME CAA AND WINDS TO MAKE FOR SOME WIND
CHILL CONCERNS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS SHUD BE
GENERALLY LIGHT...BUT SOME SORT OF WINTER WX OR WIND CHILL ADV WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED UNTIL THINGS WIND DOWN. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE NEXT SYSTEM...BUT THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE EXACT TIMING AND ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT. FOR NOW...I WILL INTRODUCE A SLGT CHC OF SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE TN LINE FRIDAY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE
ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...WITH WIND CHILLS
BELOW ZERO ABOVE ABOUT 3500 FT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THEN TEMPS
WILL MODERATE BACK TO ONLY A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW NORMAL BY
FRIDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR BRINGING TEMPS BACK DOWN
5 TO 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT....A SOLID SHIELD OF LOWERING VFR CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AIRFIELD OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH.
THIS SYSTEM...AND THE ASSOCIATED STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE...WILL
CREATE SHOWER BANDS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND CENTRAL PIEDMONT OF
THE CAROLINAS...WHICH COULD FLIRT WITH THE KCLT AIRFIELD FROM THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...A BRIEF SNOW FLURRY IS POSSIBLE AT
JUST ABOUT ANY TIME GOING FORWARD. THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT
ANY SNOW SHOWER BANDS WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST OF A CHESTER
TO MONROE LINE AND NOT IMPACT THE AIRFIELD...BUT THIS WILL NEED
CLOSE MONITORING OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY THROUGH SUNDAY. VFR CIGS WILL SCATTER FROM
THE WEST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
LOWER ALTOCUMULUS CEILINGS FOR MOST OF THE EVENING HOURS AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT...SCATTERING FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE REST OF SUNDAY
MORNING. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE SOME LOW END GUSTS AS
THE PASSING UPPER LOW GENERATES A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. GUSTS INTO THE 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KAVL...WITH
GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT FROM KHKY TO KGMU.
OUTLOOK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES...MOISTURE...AND REINFORCING COLDER AIR ARRIVING FROM
THE NORTHWEST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOST
LIKELY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
03-09Z 09-15Z 15-21Z 21-00Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
534 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z TONIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO FANFARE OTHER THAN
WINDS BECOMING NW TO N BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LITTLE TO NO CLOUDINESS
AND NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ANDRADE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WERE
PRESENT ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK LEE SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM EASTERN COLORADO
INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS
MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE IS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR AND RAP PV ANALYSIS NOW
EMERGING ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM BROADENS AND MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION IT WILL FORCE A WEAK
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN NORTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS BY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT GIVEN ONLY WEAK
POST FRONTAL SURFACE PRESSURE RISES SHOWN IN SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINING QUITE DRY
AND ASIDE FROM SOME THIN CIRRUS PASSING THROUGH...NO CLOUDS OR
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BRB
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.. THIS PATTERN STAYS IN PLACE
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. AT THE SURFACE...LEESIDE TROUGHING SETS UP AND WE WILL
SEE A GRADUAL WARMING OF TEMPERATURES. BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE LOW 60S AND UPPER 70S.
WEST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES SOME ON THURSDAY...AND
BEGINS SHIFTING EASTWARD. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND FORCE A WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA FRIDAY...BUT WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES STILL REMAINING WARM AND NO APPRECIABLE COLD AIR
INTRUDING...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. SOME
QUESTION FOR THE WEEKEND IF MORE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAN APPROACH
THE AREA AND GIVE EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR POPS...BUT FOR NOW THINGS
LOOK DRY.
ELSENHEIMER
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
943 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. A
STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST BUT PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 940 PM EST SATURDAY...
JUST A FEW MINOR TWEAKS MADE IN THIS PACKAGE. ADJUSTED SKY COVER
BASED ON CURRENT IR OBSERVATIONS. FURTHER SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPERATURE VALUES BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AT THIS HOUR...AND
BASED ON THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN THE MID CLOUD DECK MAINLY EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS BY MIDNIGHT.
PREVIOUSLY VALID DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST WITH
A RAPIDLY DEEPINING SURFACE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HEADING NORTH
OFF THE FLORIDA COAST TO ALONG THE GULF STREAM BY MORNING. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAN HIGH/MID CLOUDS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT EARLY ON BEFORE THE SYSTEMS START TO
PHASE AND ATTEMPT TO LEAN DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INLAND. HOWEVER HOW
FAR TO THE NW THIS OCCURS REMAINS IFFY GIVEN SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE
AND DEVELOPING SURFACE-7H NORTHERLY FLOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WITHIN A TIGHT
DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE BACK OF THE COASTAL LOW JUST TO THE SE
THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER THE GFS/CMC DO TOUCH THE FAR CORNER OF THE
PIEDMONT WITH A FLURRY/SPRINKLE WHILE THE HRRR AND LOCAL RNK-WRF
LOOK A BIT MORE OMINOUS IN BRINGING PRECIP JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA
LATE. SINCE THESE STILL APPEAR TO BE OUTLIERS ATTM WILL ONLY BEEF
UP CLOUDS SE LATE TONIGHT BUT STAY DRY FOR NOW PENDING LATER
TRENDS. OTRW WILL RUN WITH A PC FORECAST OVERALL FOR HIGH CLOUDS
THIS EVENING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY SE THIRD OVERNIGHT.
LOWS AGAIN DEPENDENT UPON THE CLOUD CANOPY AS GIVEN LOW DEWPOINTS
COULD QUICKLY FALL BACK INTO THE 20S SOONER. THUS GOING ON THE
COLDER SIDE OF MOS OVERALL WHICH STILL SUPPORTS LOW/MID 20S
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 30 SE.
SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS HEADING ALONG THE GULF STREAM SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW CATCHES UP AND HELPS SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN. GUIDANCE AGAIN
DEPICTS AN INTENSE BUT VERY COMPACT SYSTEM OFFSHORE WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT BETWEEN CLOUDS AND DEFORMATION PRECIP ON THE NW SIDE OUT EAST.
HOWEVER STILL APPEARS THAT BETWEEN DRY AIR IN PLACE AND SOME EASTWARD
BOOT VIA THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE KICKER THAT MOST DEEP MOISTURE
SHOULD AGAIN STAY JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY MORNING BUT
SOMETHING STILL TO WATCH. THEREFORE PLAN TO STAY DRY WITH MORE SUN WEST
AND CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO MORE SUN DURING THE DAY EAST AS THE MID DECK
CANOPY SLOWLY FADES AND SHIFTS EAST. WINDS MAY TURN GUSTY AS WELL
SUNDAY OUT EAST ON THE PERIMETER OF THE CYCLONE WHILE OVERALL WARMING
ALOFT TAKES PLACE. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S WEST AND
PERHAPS SOME 50S JUST IN THE LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON THE EDGE OF THE
EASTERN CLOUD SHIELD PENDING HOW FAST IT EXITS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT SATURDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS
OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL SPIN UP AN INTENSE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. THE MODELS KEEP THE CWA DRY...BUT
SOME CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER OVER THE PIEDMONT. AS THE COASTAL LOW
EXITS ON MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC. A
POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD
PROVIDE LIGHT SNOW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING MONDAY. THE 12Z
ECMWF SEEMS TOO SLOW WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND THE
APPROACHING ARCTIC AIR...WHILE THE 12Z GFS MAY BE TOO BULLISH WITH
QPF. PRECIPITATION TYPE BECOMES MORE PROBLEMATIC IN THE
PIEDMONT...AS FLURRIES BEGIN OVER THE PIEDMONT BEFORE CHANGING TO
RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S. THE RAIN WOULD CHANGE
BACK TO FLURRIES BY MONDAY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES DROP.
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD BY TUESDAY...AS A DEEP
ARCTIC AIR MASS SPILLS OVER THE CWA. WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING
520 DAM AND MODEL SOUNDINGS PORTRAYING A NEARLY SATURATED CLOUD
LAYER UP TO -30 C FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY...THE
UPSLOPE SNOW MACHINE WILL BE HUMMING AT FULL POWER ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES. WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES APPEAR LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS
DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SO IT HAS BEEN MENTIONED IN THE HWO.
AREAS TO THE EAST MAY STILL A FEW FLURRIES FLYING IN THE NORTHWEST
WIND...BUT NO ACCUMULATION WILL BE REALIZED AFTER THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
DEPARTS OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE HELD BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD DUE TO PERSISTENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION. ONE LAST CONCERN COULD BE THE WIND CHILL ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS THESE VALUES MAY DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BY DAWN...AND POSSIBLY HIT ZERO ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EST SATURDAY...
A DEEP ARCTIC AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP THE UPSLOPE SNOW MACHINE IN ACTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES...BUT THE PIEDMONT SHOULD STAY DRY FROM THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE SNOWFALL THREAT WILL DECREASE LATER IN
THE WORK WEEK...THE THREAT FOR LOW WIND CHILL VALUES WILL INCREASE.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS PROJECT THAT THE WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA OF -5 F IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS ON EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND EVEN LOWER TO -10 F BY
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DIVING INTO THE TEENS AND
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND A DECENT NORTHWEST BREEZE...THE WIND
CHILL THREAT IS WORTHY ENOUGH TO NOTE IN THE HWO.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD...BUT THE MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE BEYOND
THIS POINT. THE 12Z GFS TRIES TO DEVELOP ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
FROM A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS ANY MOISTURE FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE CWA. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WERE INTRODUCED.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EST SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. A DEEP
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING WELL TO OUR
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...THEN TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF THE
SC/NC COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...BUT ANY CIGS BELOW
100 ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE RNK TAF SITES. TO THE
WEST...A DEEPENING LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AND MOVING SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT
APPROACH OR IMPACT THE RNK CWA UNTIL JUST BEYOND THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE APPROACHING WESTERN
AREAS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AT ANY TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. THE AIR
MASS IS EXTREMELY DRY...SO VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VFR.
WINDS WILL REMAIN CHAOTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE REGION FALLS
BETWEEN THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW AND THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. A GENERAL TENDENCY TOWARD NNW-NNE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SEEING INFLUENCE FROM THE DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOW...WHILE LIGHT/VARIABLE TO LIGHT SW WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SPEEDS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. TO THE
EAST...POTENTIAL FOR 8-12KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS KDAN-KLYH LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE COASTAL LOW.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
FOR MONDAY INTO MID WEEK...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
A SECOND SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITH AN INFLUX OF VERY COLD AIR AND DEEP UPSLOPE
MOISTURE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING RESULTING IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS IN ADDITION TO LOW CIGS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR AT KBLF/KLWB AND POTENTIAL PERIODS
OF MVFR AT KBCB/KROA. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FLURRIES MAY OCCUR AS FAR EAST AS THE
PIEDMONT WHERE INTERVALS OF VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO OCCUR.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN TO MAINLY VFR LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE POSSIBLY RETURNING TO SUB-VFR AGAIN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK PASSING UPPER
IMPULSE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/JM/MBS
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JH/PM/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
710 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. A
STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST BUT PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST SATURDAY...
UPPER LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EARLY TONIGHT LOOKS TO HEAD
EAST AND QUICKLY HELP DEEPEN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HEADING NORTH OFF THE
FLORIDA COAST TO ALONG THE GULF STREAM BY MORNING. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO FAN HIGH/MID CLOUDS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT
EARLY ON BEFORE THE SYSTEMS START TO PHASE AND ATTEMPT TO LEAN DEEPER
MOISTURE BACK INLAND. HOWEVER HOW FAR TO THE NW THIS OCCURS REMAINS
IFFY GIVEN SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE AND DEVELOPING SURFACE-7H NORTHERLY
FLOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIP WITHIN A TIGHT DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE BACK OF THE COASTAL LOW
JUST TO THE SE THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER THE GFS/CMC DO TOUCH THE FAR CORNER
OF THE PIEDMONT WITH A FLURRY/SPRINKLE WHILE THE HRRR AND LOCAL RNK-WRF
LOOK A BIT MORE OMINOUS IN BRINGING PRECIP JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA LATE.
SINCE THESE STILL APPEAR TO BE OUTLIERS ATTM WILL ONLY BEEF UP CLOUDS
SE LATE TONIGHT BUT STAY DRY FOR NOW PENDING LATER TRENDS. OTRW WILL
RUN WITH A PC FORECAST OVERALL FOR HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING...THEN
BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY SE THIRD OVERNIGHT. LOWS AGAIN DEPENDENT UPON
THE CLOUD CANOPY AS GIVEN LOW DEWPOINTS COULD QUICKLY FALL BACK INTO
THE 20S SOONER. THUS GOING ON THE COLDER SIDE OF MOS OVERALL WHICH
STILL SUPPORTS LOW/MID 20S MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 30 SE.
SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS HEADING ALONG THE GULF STREAM SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW CATCHES UP AND HELPS SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN. GUIDANCE AGAIN
DEPICTS AN INTENSE BUT VERY COMPACT SYSTEM OFFSHORE WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT BETWEEN CLOUDS AND DEFORMATION PRECIP ON THE NW SIDE OUT EAST.
HOWEVER STILL APPEARS THAT BETWEEN DRY AIR IN PLACE AND SOME EASTWARD
BOOT VIA THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE KICKER THAT MOST DEEP MOISTURE
SHOULD AGAIN STAY JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY MORNING BUT
SOMETHING STILL TO WATCH. THEREFORE PLAN TO STAY DRY WITH MORE SUN WEST
AND CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO MORE SUN DURING THE DAY EAST AS THE MID DECK
CANOPY SLOWLY FADES AND SHIFTS EAST. WINDS MAY TURN GUSTY AS WELL
SUNDAY OUT EAST ON THE PERIMETER OF THE CYCLONE WHILE OVERALL WARMING
ALOFT TAKES PLACE. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S WEST AND
PERHAPS SOME 50S JUST IN THE LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON THE EDGE OF THE
EASTERN CLOUD SHIELD PENDING HOW FAST IT EXITS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT SATURDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS
OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL SPIN UP AN INTENSE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. THE MODELS KEEP THE CWA DRY...BUT
SOME CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER OVER THE PIEDMONT. AS THE COASTAL LOW
EXITS ON MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC. A
POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD
PROVIDE LIGHT SNOW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING MONDAY. THE 12Z
ECMWF SEEMS TOO SLOW WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND THE
APPROACHING ARCTIC AIR...WHILE THE 12Z GFS MAY BE TOO BULLISH WITH
QPF. PRECIPITATION TYPE BECOMES MORE PROBLEMATIC IN THE
PIEDMONT...AS FLURRIES BEGIN OVER THE PIEDMONT BEFORE CHANGING TO
RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S. THE RAIN WOULD CHANGE
BACK TO FLURRIES BY MONDAY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES DROP.
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD BY TUESDAY...AS A DEEP
ARCTIC AIR MASS SPILLS OVER THE CWA. WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING
520 DAM AND MODEL SOUNDINGS PORTRAYING A NEARLY SATURATED CLOUD
LAYER UP TO -30 C FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY...THE
UPSLOPE SNOW MACHINE WILL BE HUMMING AT FULL POWER ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES. WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES APPEAR LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS
DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SO IT HAS BEEN MENTIONED IN THE HWO.
AREAS TO THE EAST MAY STILL A FEW FLURRIES FLYING IN THE NORTHWEST
WIND...BUT NO ACCUMULATION WILL BE REALIZED AFTER THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
DEPARTS OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE HELD BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD DUE TO PERSISTENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION. ONE LAST CONCERN COULD BE THE WIND CHILL ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS THESE VALUES MAY DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BY DAWN...AND POSSIBLY HIT ZERO ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EST SATURDAY...
A DEEP ARCTIC AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP THE UPSLOPE SNOW MACHINE IN ACTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES...BUT THE PIEDMONT SHOULD STAY DRY FROM THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE SNOWFALL THREAT WILL DECREASE LATER IN
THE WORK WEEK...THE THREAT FOR LOW WIND CHILL VALUES WILL INCREASE.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS PROJECT THAT THE WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA OF -5 F IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS ON EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND EVEN LOWER TO -10 F BY
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DIVING INTO THE TEENS AND
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND A DECENT NORTHWEST BREEZE...THE WIND
CHILL THREAT IS WORTHY ENOUGH TO NOTE IN THE HWO.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD...BUT THE MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE BEYOND
THIS POINT. THE 12Z GFS TRIES TO DEVELOP ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
FROM A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS ANY MOISTURE FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE CWA. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WERE INTRODUCED.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EST SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. A DEEP
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING WELL TO OUR
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...THEN TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF THE
SC/NC COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...BUT ANY CIGS BELOW
100 ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE RNK TAF SITES. TO THE
WEST...A DEEPENING LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AND MOVING SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT
APPROACH OR IMPACT THE RNK CWA UNTIL JUST BEYOND THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE APPROACHING WESTERN
AREAS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AT ANY TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. THE AIR
MASS IS EXTREMELY DRY...SO VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VFR.
WINDS WILL REMAIN CHAOTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE REGION FALLS
BETWEEN THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW AND THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. A GENERAL TENDENCY TOWARD NNW-NNE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SEEING INFLUENCE FROM THE DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOW...WHILE LIGHT/VARIABLE TO LIGHT SW WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SPEEDS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. TO THE
EAST...POTENTIAL FOR 8-12KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS KDAN-KLYH LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE COASTAL LOW.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
FOR MONDAY INTO MID WEEK...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
A SECOND SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITH AN INFLUX OF VERY COLD AIR AND DEEP UPSLOPE
MOISTURE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING RESULTING IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS IN ADDITION TO LOW CIGS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR AT KBLF/KLWB AND POTENTIAL PERIODS
OF MVFR AT KBCB/KROA. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FLURRIES MAY OCCUR AS FAR EAST AS THE
PIEDMONT WHERE INTERVALS OF VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO OCCUR.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN TO MAINLY VFR LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE POSSIBLY RETURNING TO SUB-VFR AGAIN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK PASSING UPPER
IMPULSE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JH/PM/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
102 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY. MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OBSERVATION TRENDS AND THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO
INDICATE NO SIGNIFICANT WINTER IMPACTS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WE ARE
CLOSELY MONITORING TRENDS BECAUSE OF THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT THE MODEL FORECAST OF INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY TRENDS INDICATE A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A
BAROCLINIC LEAF WAS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. RADAR DISPLAYED
RAIN MOVING INTO MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST SECTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WET-BULB COOLING HAS HELPED SUPPORT A LITTLE SLEET IN A FEW
LOCATIONS.
RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR INDICATE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS AND OBSERVATION TRENDS WITH SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SUPPORT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG LIFT AND COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW COULD HELP CAUSE SNOW TO MIX
WITH THE RAIN LATER TONIGHT. THE LATEST RAP TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS
INDICATE RAIN AND MOST SREF MEMBERS ALSO INDICATE RAIN.
BASED ON THE STRONG UPPER SYSTEM THERE IS STILL SOME POSSIBILITY
OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION LEADING TO HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WHICH WOULD LOWER THE FREEZING LEVEL RESULTING IN
MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW AS INDICATED BY SOME SREF MEMBERS AND THE
NAM. HOWEVER...OBSERVATION TRENDS AND THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR
CONTINUE TO INDICATE NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. THE WPC STILL KEEPS
ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WE HAVE HELD OFF
ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WILL CONTINUE LINE OF THOUGHT FROM END OF THE NEAR TERM INTO
SUNDAY. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO BE REASONABLY IN LINE WITH
THE NAM COLDER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
COASTAL LOW. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF MAINLY CHANCE POPS WITH
GENERALLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX FROM CAE EASTWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON SUNDAY. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE INCREASED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
WILL BE POSTED FOR LAKE MARION...ALLOWING LATER SHIFTS TO EXPAND
IF NECESSARY TO OTHER LAKES.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY BUT REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WHERE PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR.
A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT
A DEEP AND EXPANSIVE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DESCEND UPON THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND
INCREASED LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. UPPER LOW OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MID WEEK WITH HIGHS NEARLY 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE 40S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S. UPPER FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE ZONAL
BY THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT WARMING TREND TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE AS AXIS OF
PRECIPITATION REMAINS GENERALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND FAR
EASTERN MIDLANDS. LATEST HI-RES MODELS AND GUIDANCE GENERALLY KEEP
THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR
OGB WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE A LONGER PERIOD OF RAIN THAN THE REST OF
THE TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS START THE PERIOD AND GENERALLY
PREFERRED THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH THE EXCEPTION AGAIN BEING AT
OGB WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE IN BANDED
PRECIPITATION. DURING THE HEAVIER PERIODS OF RAIN COULD SEE SOME
SNOW MIXING IN SO WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR RASN AT OGB FROM
09Z-13Z. WARM GROUND TEMPS AND ABOVE FREEZING AIR TEMPS SHOULD
PREVENT MUCH IMPACT IF THERE IS A PERIOD OF SNOW. NAM GUIDANCE IS
OUTLIER AND HITS CIGS HARD ALL TERMINALS AND DISCOUNTED IN FAVOR
OF MORE CLUSTERED GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS LOW VFR CIGS THROUGH 15Z OR
SO THEN IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE COASTAL LOW LIFTS
AWAY FROM THE REGION.
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL BACK TO NORTHWESTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES MON THRU WED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE NORTH FORK OF THE EDISTO RIVER AT
ORANGEBURG.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR SCZ031-036>038.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
120 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT...THEN INTENSIFIES
WHILE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC HIGH WAS SLOWLY LIFTING NE OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AS THE
COASTAL TROUGH WAS BECOMING SHARPER OFF THE CAROLINA COAST FROM
HATTERAS SOUTH. THE SURFACE LOW WAS STARTING TO DEEPEN OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST. THE SHARPENING COASTAL TROUGH HAS HELPED TO
INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN SC AND THIS LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST NC. MANY OF THE HIGH RES MODELS INCLUDING
THE HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS THAN THE SYNOPTIC
MODELS. APPEARS AS THOUGH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIFT RAPIDLY
NORTH INTO NC BUT THEN SLOW AS IT RUNS INTO THE DRIER SFC HIGH
OVER EASTERN VA. THIS SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY LIMITED TO
NORTHEAST NC AND SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS DURING THE PRE AND POST
DAWN HOURS. BASED ON TRENDS IN THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR NORTHEAST NC AND SOUTHEAST VA OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TEMPERATURES AS THE PRECIP MOVES
NORTH, BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THE CLOUD SHIELD AHEAD OF THE RAIN
IS PROMOTING AN INCREASE IN TEMPS KEEPING THINGS ABOVE FREEZING.
LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF NORTHEAST NC AND SOUTHEAST VA REMAIN DRY.
CLOUDS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME PUSHING INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL VA SO
WITH MORE CLEAR SKIES INLAND STILL EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER20S INLAND AND EASTERN SHORE WITH MID 30S AND EVEN SOME
UPPER 30S IN AREAS OF CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY TO SUNDAY / SUNDAY NIGHTS FCST WILL BE THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST (ALONG THE GULF STREAM WALL) AND JUST
HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE PCPN SHIELD CAN GET AS THE STORM
RAPIDLY DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NE. LATEST HIGH RES MODELS BRING
MEASURABLE PRECIP BACK ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE TIDEWATER AND
SOME AS FAR WEST AS THE I95 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF RICHMOND. THAT SAID
THE NAM/GFS KEEPS MEASURABLE PCPN (RAIN) CONFINED TO THE COAST. A
50 MILE DIFFERENCE IN STORM TRACK (EITHER DIRECTION) WOULD MAKE
FOR A DIFFERENT SCENARIO.
EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST WITH NE-N WINDS INCREASING
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED 20-30 MPH ALONG DELMARVA AND
25-35 MPH WITH 40-50 MPH GUSTS FROM VA BEACH ON SOUTH. HIGHS TEMPS 45-50
COOLEST ALONG THE COASTAL AND WARMEST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE SOME
PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE.
LTST DATA SUPPORTS ENOUGH COLD AIR WHEN COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL
WRAP AROUND MSTR FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LOWER MD ERN
SHORE BEFORE PCPN ENDS AROUND 12Z MON (NO ACCUMULATION).
OTHERWISE...KEPT RAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS. DRY WEST. LOWS
SUN NIGHT UPPER 20S- LOWER 30S..EXCEPT M30S SERN COASTAL AREAS.
12Z DATA SUPPORTS A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING OCEAN
LOW MON MORNING. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW MON AFTERNOON
WITH ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE MOISTURE TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AFTER 18Z. THUS...KEPT MON MORN DRY BUT MAINTAINED CHC POPS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILES WARM ENOUGH FOR THIS PCPN TO BE
RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS MON 45-50.
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEEPENS AS IT EXITS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE FROM YET ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM PROGGED TO DIVE SE ACROSS THE REGION TUE. THIS TO
CARVE OUT A RATHER DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN US. CAA ALONG WITH
FALLING THICKNESSES RESULTS IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS MIXING WITH THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE MORNING. LOWS MON
NIGHT 30-35. SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMLS PSBL (<1 INCH) ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT MAINLY NW OF RIC WHERE LIKELY POPS WILL BE. A
DUSTING/COATING PSBL AS FAR SOUTH AS A FVX- RIC-SBY LINE. WENT
WITH MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS TUE DUE TO THE COLD AIR
ALOFT DESPITE HIGHS IN THE M-U30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NE CONUS THRU
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH MAY SPARK ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FA TUES NIGHT AND WED. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHC POPS. DRY WX
IS GENERALLY EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WED-SAT MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS THRU
THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CSTS TODAY INTO
MON MORNG. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER ACRS THE AREA TODAY AND
TNGT...AS THE LO MOVES NE OFF THE CST. EXPECT LWR AC AND SC AT
ECG/ORF AND POSSIBLY PHF DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE BEST
CHC FOR RAIN AT ECG AND ORF THIS AFTN INTO TNGT. ALSO...UPR 20S
TO LWR 30S KT WIND GUSTS EXPECTED THIS AFTN INTO TNGT AT
ECG/ORF...AS THE DEEPENING LO CAUSES THE PRES GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN
OVER THE AREA.
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE MON THRU EARLY WED...AS
AN UPR LO MOVES FM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC STATES.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE AREA ESPLY FOR
RIC/SBY. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDS MAY OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING ROUGH WEATHER
BACK TO THE MARINE AREA ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE BOMBS OFF THE NC
COAST BY LATE SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY HEADS NE AND WELL OUT TO SEA ON
MONDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A QUICK AND SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN WINDS/SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING THRU SUNDAY EVENING...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA THRU THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GALE WATCH
HAD BEEN UP GRADED TO GALE WARNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND...CURRITUCK SOUND...AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY.
SINCE START TIME OF GALE CONDITIONS IS NOW INSIDE 24 HRS WENT AHEAD
AND BEGAN GALE WARNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR GUSTS UP TO 40-45 KT
(HIGHEST SOUTHERNMOST WATERS). SOLID SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE AREA AS WELL...AND THUS HAVE
RAISED SCA FLAGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE AREA EXCEPT THE
RIVERS (THE LOWER JAMES IS IN THE SCA). HAVE SEAS INCREASING TO 8-14
FT (HIGHEST SOUTH) BY SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR SHORE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 8+ FT FROM VA BEACH SOUTH SO HAVE ALSO ISSUED HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN BEACHES. HAVE WAVES REACHING 5-6 FT AT THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY LATE SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING MONDAY
MORNING...BUT SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...AND SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR
DETAILS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
VIRGINIA BEACH AND COASTAL CURRITUCK COUNTY FOR SUN AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. 30 KT NE/NNE WINDS(~40KT GUSTS) WILL BUILD SEAS
TO 9-10FT NEARSHORE. HIGH SEAS AND PROLONGED NE FLOW MAY CAUSE
BEACH EROSION AND POSSIBLY SOME DUNE EROSION. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE DURING HIGH
TIDES. EXPECT COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES A FEW HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER
THE HIGH TIDES BETWEEN 7-8PM SUNDAY AND 7-8AM MONDAY.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR
NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
MONDAY FOR ANZ631-632-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
MONDAY FOR ANZ630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR/JAO
SHORT TERM...MPR/JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM/TMG
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1146 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016
UPGRADED THE BLIZZARD WATCHES TO BLIZZARD WARNINGS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. SNOW DEPTH AND WHERE RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING THIS EVENING
PLAYED A LARGE ROLE IN DETERMINING WHICH COUNTIES TO UPGRADE TO
BLIZZARD WARNINGS VERSUS WINTER STORM WARNINGS. CURRENT SNOW DEPTH
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IS AMPLE FOLLOWING THE WINTER STORM EARLIER
THIS WEEK. IN FACT...MANY AREAS HAVE GREATER THAN 8 INCHES. THESE
AREAS HAVE ALSO REMAINED COOLER TODAY AND VERY LITTLE RAIN HAS
FALLEN. BY ALL ACCOUNTS THE SNOW IS ABLE TO BLOW AROUND...
ESPECIALLY WITH GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 MPH.
CONTRAST THAT WITH WEST CENTRAL MN WHICH LARGELY MISSED
OUT ON THE LAST WINTER STORM...THEY HAVE HAD ON AND OFF RAIN ALL
EVENING...AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S THIS
EVENING. SNOW DEPTH THERE IS MORE VARIABLE...RANGING FROM ZERO IN
PLACES TO 6 OR 7 INCHES IN OTHERS. IT IS UNLIKELY DESPITE 50 OR 55
MPH WIND GUSTS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW THAT WIDESPREAD WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. SEVERAL CALLS AROUND THE AREA ALSO
POINTED OUT THE SNOW IS DENSE AND WET. CANNOT RULE OUT POCKETS OF
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...BUT DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR A
BLIZZARD WARNING THERE. VERY STRONG WINDS AND LIGHT SNOW STILL
NECESSITATED SOME TYPE OF WARNING. IF MORE SNOW FALLS ALLOWING
VISIBILITIES TO BE REDUCED TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS IN SEVERAL
PLACES...THEN WE MAY NEED TO UPGRADE THOSE LOCATIONS TO A
BLIZZARD WARNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016
A STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS EVIDENT ACROSS MONTANA AND THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS AFTN AS PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AHEAD OF
THIS SHORT WAVE...BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS ND/SD...AND
MOVED AS FAR EAST AS WC MN. REGIONAL OBS HAVE ALSO REPORTED
SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN WITH THE RADAR ECHOES. SOME OF THE OBS HAD EVEN
RECORDED A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVED ACROSS
THE AREA.
DUE TO THE FACT THAT OBS ARE REPORTING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND
THE LATEST RAP HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION...HAVE UPDATED WX GRIDS TO INCORPORATE LIKELY POPS IN
WC MN/CENTRAL MN DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING TIME FRAME. AS THE
LIGHT RAIN MOVES EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MN DURING THE EVENING...SFC
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ICY CONDS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. AS THIS
AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN AND WC WI...TEMPS
ALOFT ARE COLD ENOUGH TO HAD A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW.
DUE TO A PERSISTENT SW/WEST FLOW COMING FROM THE DAKOTAS WHERE
TODAYS TEMPS WERE IN THE 40S...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FALLING TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH MANY AREAS HAVING STEADY TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SUNDAY/S WX IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN/SW/SC MN FOR A TRUE BLIZZARD TO FORM. TODAYS
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH 40S ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE HAVE
CREATED A DENSER SNOWPACK /LESS LIKELY TO BLOW AROUND/. SOME AREAS
IN WC MN HAVE EVEN LOST MOST OF THEIR SNOWPACK...SO ANY BLOWING SNOW
WILL NEED TO BE FROM NEW SNOW SUNDAY AFTN. THEREFORE...DUE TO
PROBLEMS RELATED TO GENERATING BLOWING SNOW...THE BLIZZARD WATCH
WILL CONTINUE. FURTHER TO THE EAST WHERE A BETTER CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED AND THE SNOWPACK IS DEEPER...A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY AFTN THRU MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING AS TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO FALL FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE STATE BY THE AFTN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016
LONGER TERM CONCERN REMAINS BLIZZARD POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
WE STILL ANTICIPATE STRONG WINDS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS INTO MONDAY MORNING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS TO THE EAST OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. BUFKIT PROFILES OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH SHOWING MAX GUST
POTENTIALS OF 45-50 KTS. LARGE DGZ ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND
EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS OVERALL. THE HIGHER SNOW FALL
POTENTIAL OF 2-3 INCHES OVER THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH MONDAY
CWA. THE MAIN LIMITING SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL REMAINS
WARMER AIR TODAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING SOME SETTLING TO THE
EXISTING SNOW PACK...HOW WIDESPREAD THE NEW SNOW WILL BE AND ONLY
LIMITED SNOW FALL OVER WEST CENTRAL MN FROM THE FEB 2-3 EVENT.
THE BLOWING SNOW MODEL INDICATES IF SNOW IS REALIZED...WE WOULD
LIKELY SEE THE GROUND BLIZZARD ACROSS THE CURRENT BLIZZARD WATCH
AREA. ALSO...THE LATEST CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE STILL WAS INDICATING
A GREATER THAN 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF 2-3 HR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
BEING REALIZE AS WELL.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
THE LONG TERM MODELS WITH THE CHANCE OF A WEAK CLIPPER/WAA
ADVECTION PATTERN MOVING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR
NOW. THE OTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW MOVES IN WITH ANOTHER WEAK
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD
REMAIN DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK. THERE ARE SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LARGELY UNTIL THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
BEGIN LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER SLOWLY THROUGH THAT
TIME AND INCREASE WITH SOME GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 KT EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MN.
KMSP...VFR UNTIL ABOUT 22Z WHEN THE SNOW SHOWERS ARRIVE.
THEREAFTER...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOME OCCASIONAL
BLOWING SNOW AS WELL.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...CHC MVFR/IFR/-SN. WINDY. BLSN POSSIBLE. WIND NW 20G35KT.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
MNZ065>067-073>076-082>085-091>093.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
MNZ041-047-048-054>058-064.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
MNZ042>045-049-050.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
MNZ051>053-059>063-068>070-077-078.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1143 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016
LATEST LOCAL/REGIONAL RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A SWATH
OF SNOW ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...SOUTH TO RUGBY...AND HARVEY.
WINDS GUSTING TO 35KT IN THIS AREA AND THE BLIZZARD WARNING WILL
SHORTLY GO INTO EFFECT HERE...THUS CURRENT TIMING LOOKS ON TRACK.
THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION AND GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT SNOW AMOUNTS
BECOMING LIGHTER TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY AND WILL MONITOR CLOSELY
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...A CURRENT LULL IN THE STRONG WINDS WEST
AND CENTRAL WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 35KT. STRONG WINDS WILL RE-EMERGE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST 12Z- 18Z SUNDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. ISALLOBARIC FORCING IN TANDEM WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES OF 8 TO 8.5 C/KM WILL RESULT IN VERY STRONG WINDS.
THE LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW GUSTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER BETWEEN 60-65KT. THUS THE HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN GOOD
STANDING DESPITE THE CURRENT LULL. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED
SUNDAY WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. CURRENT FORECAST
IS ON TRACK FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
ND AT MID EVENING IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER EXPECTED...
SO WE MADE MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH ABOUT 08 UTC TO ACCOUNT
FOR THAT AND RECENT RAP AND HRRR SIMULATIONS. OTHERWISE...WE
MERELY BLENDED OBSERVATIONS INTO THE NEAR-TERM HOURLY FORECAST
FIELDS WITH THIS UPDATE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF OVERALL CHANGE.
NO CHANGES TO OUR HEADLINES...BUT THE BRUNT OF STRONG WINDS IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN MOMENTUM TRANSFER INTO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE MORE UNIFORMLY EFFICIENT ACROSS THE AREA...UNLIKE
THIS EVENING. BLIZZARD POTENTIAL WILL BE DRIVEN ENTIRELY BY THE
AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT FALLS IN THE BLIZZARD-WARNED AREA...WITH THE
00 UTC NAM MUCH MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW SHOWERS THAN RECENT RAP
AND HRRR RUNS. THE LATTER MODELS SUGGEST THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THAT PART OF THE FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 623 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016
WE INCREASED LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT TONIGHT GIVEN EXPECTED MIXING
AND ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BASED ON TEMPERATURE
TRENDS UPSTREAM INTO SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ONLY
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE REST OF THE EVENING FORECAST...AS
SHOWERS ARE INCREASING OVER NORTHWEST ND AND WINDS ARE BEGINNING
TO TREND UPWARD ON A MORE WIDESPREAD BASIS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THAT IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ND AS OF 0015 UTC. WE ARE
MAKING NO CHANGES TO THE HIGH WIND OR BLIZZARD WARNING WITH THIS
UPDATE CYCLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW STRETCHING OVER SASKATCHEWAN
WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA. TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SLIDE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE COLD FRONT IS
WORKING ITS WAY OVER EASTERN MONTANA. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHILE STRONG GUSTS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN/CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES RIDGE AXIS SLIDING INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE WITH
TROUGH WORKING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN INTO EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD
AREA OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/VIRGA CONTINUES TO WORK OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BEHIND THE RIDGE.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WEAK SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE COME
INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING THE UPCOMING WIND/SNOW
EVENT. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST/SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT WITH UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY
EARLY SUNDAY. AS IT MOVES ACROSS...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND WRAP AROUND SNOW WILL DEVELOP TO ITS WEST...PRIMARILY
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE NORTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WHILE THAT OCCURS...COOLER AIRMASS WILL SLIDE
INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL PROMOTE MIXING OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW 50-60KT 850 MB
WINDS. EXPECT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE LEFT THE HIGH WIND WARNING MAINLY IN
TACT BUT HAVE BUMPED UP THE TIMING A BIT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN END.
THE WIND WILL COMBINE WITH THE DEVELOPING SNOW OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY TO BRING GREATLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. THEREFORE...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS UNTOUCHED.
ON SUNDAY...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHING IN BY MID-DAY.
PERIODS OF SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER AREA UNDER BLIZZARD
WARNING. ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...WITH THE STRONG WINDS IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO RESULT IN
ZERO VISIBILITY IN OPEN COUNTRY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016
RESIDUAL BLOWING SNOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG WINDS AND LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT. H850 WINDS ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE AT 50-60 KNOTS FROM THE
GFS SUNDAY EVENING...THEN WEAKENS A BIT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BUT
SLOWLY SUNDAY NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE BLIZZARD WARNING (WHICH
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING) MAY NEED TO BE "CHANGED" TO
A HIGH WIND WARNING OR A WIND ADVISORY AT THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT.
MODELS ARE INDICATING LINGERING STRONG WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND DURING
THE DAY MONDAY...BUT MAY NOT REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY.
THEREAFTER THE UPPER LOW EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP INTO A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST WITH A LARGE H500 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND CANADA. THIS LEAVES A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL PRETTY MUCH DEFINE THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH MILD AIR SOUTHWEST AND COLD TEMPERATURES EAST. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS WILL RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW DURING THE WEEK...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016
STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 55KT WILL EMERGE AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY BEGINNING IN NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA/KISN AND KMOT...AND
PUSH INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 18Z SUNDAY.
ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG WINDS...CIGS/VSBYS WILL DETERIORATE TO
MVFR STATUS WITH SCATTERED SNOWSHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW UNTIL 03Z
MONDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR NDZ003-
011-012-019>022-034-042-045.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ001-
002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ004-005-013-023-
025.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ035>037-046>048-
050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1242 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WHILE STRONG LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...USHERING IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM...THE WEAK RADAR ECHOES HAVE DIMINISHED WITH FLURRY
REPORTS ENDING. STILL EXPECT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TO REMAIN EAST
OF THE CWFA...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE WELL EAST
OF I-77 OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE POTENT CLOSED
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST TOWARD THE AL/GA BORDER LATE THIS
EVENING...AND ASSOCIATED RAPID CYCLOGENESIS UNDERWAY OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COASTLINE. DESPITE THE EVENING EXCITEMENT OF BRIEF FROZEN
PRECIP FALLING FROM HIGH CLOUD BASES...THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR
OUR FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO BE LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF A CHESTER
SC TO MONROE NC LINE. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES OVER WHERE
ANY HEAVIER BANDING STRUCTURES MIGHT SET UP WEST OF THE OFFSHORE
LOW...WITH EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN SECTIONS OF THE
CAROLINAS THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATES. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER
FRONTOGENESIS COULD WELL WRAP SHOWERY ACTIVITY WESTWARD THROUGH THE
PIEDMONT TO OVERLAP WITH THE INCREASINGLY COLD PROFILES NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR. THE LATEST RAP AND NAM WET BULB PROFILES
NEAR CLT DEPICT SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN ALL BUT THE VERY LOWEST
FEW HUNDRED FEET OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT SNOW
VERSUS RAIN AS THE PRIMARY PTYPE WITH ANY SHOWERS REACHING WESTWARD
INTO THE LOWER PIEDMONT. POPS HAVE BEEN PUSHED INTO THE LOW LIKELY
RANGE FOR FAR SE UNION COUNTY NC AND A DUSTING OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON GRASSY SURFACES THERE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPS WERE COOLED SLIGHTLY BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS...DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION...AND SOME
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING IN SPOTS.
ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH REACHING THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
FURTHER DEEPEN THE OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE DAY. OUR REGION
SHOULD REMAIN DRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING DEEPER MOISTURE...BUT GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD
MAKE IT BACK TO AROUND NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BY THE TIME THE FRONT
ARRIVES...LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE UPPER
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. 12Z GFS360 INDICATES THAT A LARGE FIELD OF
BROAD Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NE GA ON MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AND
PASSING MID LEVEL SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL SUPPORT PRECIP CHCS
SPREADING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
BETWEEN 18Z MON TO 0Z TUES...H85 WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NW AND
INCREASE TO 25-30 KTS...SUPPORTING UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE TN BORDER.
GIVEN THE SFC TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES...PRECIP
SHOULD FALL AS EITHER SNOW OR A COLD RAIN. SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE MTNS IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOULD MIX OVER TO RAIN WITHIN THE
VALLEY FLOOR BY MID DAY. TEMPS ACROSS THE RIDGES SHOULD YIELD HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWFALL THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. AREAS EAST OF THE
MTNS SHOULD SEE ONLY RAINFALL AS HIGH TEMPS WARM TO THE 40S ACROSS
THE REGION.
MODERATE TO STRONG H85 CAA WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MTN LOCATIONS COOLING TO -12 TO -14 C BY 12Z
TUES. MIN TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE TEENS ACROSS THE MTNS
TO LOW 20S WITHIN THE VALLEYS...UPPER 20S TO THE EAST. COLD H85
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE MTNS THROUGH THE DAY...SUPPORTED BY
THICK CLOUD COVER AND GUSTY NW WINDS. CATE TO LIKELY POPS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING...REDUCING
TO CHC POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOOTHILL TO PIEDMONT AREAS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY DRY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
THE MTNS TO AROUND 40 EAST. MON AND TUES...TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECAST
GIVES 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS TO 1-2
INCHES ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF THE TN BORDER COUNTIES. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...ONE MORE PIECE OF CHANNELED VORTICITY WILL
DIVE THRU THE EASTERN CONUS TROF TUESDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING QG
FORCING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. FROM WEDNESDAY THRU
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE EASTERN TROF WILL LIFT OUT SOMEWHAT...RESULTING
IN MORE ZONAL FLOW ATOP THE CWFA. THEN ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORT WAVE
SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CARVE OUT THE
EASTERN TROF AGAIN BY SATURDAY.
AT THE SFC...A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE GRADUALLY FILLING
OVER THE NORTHEAST...KEEPING OUR AREA UNDER PERSISTENT LLVL NWLY
FLOW. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BANK UP ALONG THE USUAL NW FLOW
UPSLOPE AREAS...BUT SHUD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE TN LINE...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT
THRU WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE AREA SHUD BE MOSTLY CLEAR
AND QUITE CHILLY. THICKNESSES AND 850 MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH STILL SOME CAA AND WINDS TO MAKE FOR SOME WIND
CHILL CONCERNS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS SHUD BE
GENERALLY LIGHT...BUT SOME SORT OF WINTER WX OR WIND CHILL ADV WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED UNTIL THINGS WIND DOWN. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE NEXT SYSTEM...BUT THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE EXACT TIMING AND ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT. FOR NOW...I WILL INTRODUCE A SLGT CHC OF SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE TN LINE FRIDAY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE
ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...WITH WIND CHILLS
BELOW ZERO ABOVE ABOUT 3500 FT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THEN TEMPS
WILL MODERATE BACK TO ONLY A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW NORMAL BY
FRIDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR BRINGING TEMPS BACK DOWN
5 TO 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT....MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AIRFIELD THRU THE
MORNING AS A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES TO AND UP THE CAROLINA COAST. A
BRIEF SNOW FLURRY IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT ANY
SNOW SHOWER BANDS WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST OF THE AIRFIELD.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS SCATTER OUT BY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES INTO
THE EVENING. LIGHT NNE WINDS THIS MORNING INCREASE IN SPEED AND
BECOME GUSTY BY AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH AND THRU NWLY THIS
EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT
NLY WIND BECOMES GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIMINISHING WINDS THIS
EVENING. WINDS REMAIN NLY AT KAVL THIS EVENING ...BUT TURN WLY AT
KHKY AND W TO SW FOR THE UPSTATE SITES.
OUTLOOK...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...
MOISTURE...AND REINFORCING COLDER AIR ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOST LIKELY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
05-11Z 11-17Z 17-23Z 23-00Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...HG/RWH
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...RWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
1046 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS AVIATION AFD REASONING.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z
TONIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO FANFARE OTHER THAN WINDS BECOMING NW TO N
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING.
ANDRADE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z TONIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO FANFARE OTHER THAN
WINDS BECOMING NW TO N BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LITTLE TO NO CLOUDINESS
AND NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ANDRADE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WERE
PRESENT ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK LEE SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM EASTERN COLORADO
INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS
MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE IS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR AND RAP PV ANALYSIS NOW
EMERGING ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM BROADENS AND MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION IT WILL FORCE A WEAK
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN NORTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS BY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT GIVEN ONLY WEAK
POST FRONTAL SURFACE PRESSURE RISES SHOWN IN SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINING QUITE DRY
AND ASIDE FROM SOME THIN CIRRUS PASSING THROUGH...NO CLOUDS OR
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BRB
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.. THIS PATTERN STAYS IN PLACE
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. AT THE SURFACE...LEESIDE TROUGHING SETS UP AND WE WILL
SEE A GRADUAL WARMING OF TEMPERATURES. BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE LOW 60S AND UPPER 70S.
WEST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES SOME ON THURSDAY...AND
BEGINS SHIFTING EASTWARD. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND FORCE A WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA FRIDAY...BUT WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES STILL REMAINING WARM AND NO APPRECIABLE COLD AIR
INTRUDING...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. SOME
QUESTION FOR THE WEEKEND IF MORE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAN APPROACH
THE AREA AND GIVE EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR POPS...BUT FOR NOW THINGS
LOOK DRY.
ELSENHEIMER
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1157 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. A
STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST BUT PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 940 PM EST SATURDAY...
JUST A FEW MINOR TWEAKS MADE IN THIS PACKAGE. ADJUSTED SKY COVER
BASED ON CURRENT IR OBSERVATIONS. FURTHER SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPERATURE VALUES BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AT THIS HOUR...AND
BASED ON THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN THE MID CLOUD DECK MAINLY EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS BY MIDNIGHT.
PREVIOUSLY VALID DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST WITH
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HEADING NORTH
OFF THE FLORIDA COAST TO ALONG THE GULF STREAM BY MORNING. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAN HIGH/MID CLOUDS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT EARLY ON BEFORE THE SYSTEMS START TO
PHASE AND ATTEMPT TO LEAN DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INLAND. HOWEVER HOW
FAR TO THE NW THIS OCCURS REMAINS IFFY GIVEN SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE
AND DEVELOPING SURFACE-7H NORTHERLY FLOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WITHIN A TIGHT
DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE BACK OF THE COASTAL LOW JUST TO THE SE
THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER THE GFS/CMC DO TOUCH THE FAR CORNER OF THE
PIEDMONT WITH A FLURRY/SPRINKLE WHILE THE HRRR AND LOCAL RNK-WRF
LOOK A BIT MORE OMINOUS IN BRINGING PRECIP JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA
LATE. SINCE THESE STILL APPEAR TO BE OUTLIERS ATTM WILL ONLY BEEF
UP CLOUDS SE LATE TONIGHT BUT STAY DRY FOR NOW PENDING LATER
TRENDS. OTRW WILL RUN WITH A PC FORECAST OVERALL FOR HIGH CLOUDS
THIS EVENING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY SE THIRD OVERNIGHT.
LOWS AGAIN DEPENDENT UPON THE CLOUD CANOPY AS GIVEN LOW DEWPOINTS
COULD QUICKLY FALL BACK INTO THE 20S SOONER. THUS GOING ON THE
COLDER SIDE OF MOS OVERALL WHICH STILL SUPPORTS LOW/MID 20S
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 30 SE.
SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS HEADING ALONG THE GULF STREAM SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW CATCHES UP AND HELPS SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN. GUIDANCE AGAIN
DEPICTS AN INTENSE BUT VERY COMPACT SYSTEM OFFSHORE WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT BETWEEN CLOUDS AND DEFORMATION PRECIP ON THE NW SIDE OUT EAST.
HOWEVER STILL APPEARS THAT BETWEEN DRY AIR IN PLACE AND SOME EASTWARD
BOOT VIA THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE KICKER THAT MOST DEEP MOISTURE
SHOULD AGAIN STAY JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY MORNING BUT
SOMETHING STILL TO WATCH. THEREFORE PLAN TO STAY DRY WITH MORE SUN WEST
AND CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO MORE SUN DURING THE DAY EAST AS THE MID DECK
CANOPY SLOWLY FADES AND SHIFTS EAST. WINDS MAY TURN GUSTY AS WELL
SUNDAY OUT EAST ON THE PERIMETER OF THE CYCLONE WHILE OVERALL WARMING
ALOFT TAKES PLACE. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S WEST AND
PERHAPS SOME 50S JUST IN THE LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON THE EDGE OF THE
EASTERN CLOUD SHIELD PENDING HOW FAST IT EXITS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT SATURDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS
OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL SPIN UP AN INTENSE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. THE MODELS KEEP THE CWA DRY...BUT
SOME CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER OVER THE PIEDMONT. AS THE COASTAL LOW
EXITS ON MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC. A
POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD
PROVIDE LIGHT SNOW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING MONDAY. THE 12Z
ECMWF SEEMS TOO SLOW WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND THE
APPROACHING ARCTIC AIR...WHILE THE 12Z GFS MAY BE TOO BULLISH WITH
QPF. PRECIPITATION TYPE BECOMES MORE PROBLEMATIC IN THE
PIEDMONT...AS FLURRIES BEGIN OVER THE PIEDMONT BEFORE CHANGING TO
RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S. THE RAIN WOULD CHANGE
BACK TO FLURRIES BY MONDAY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES DROP.
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD BY TUESDAY...AS A DEEP
ARCTIC AIR MASS SPILLS OVER THE CWA. WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING
520 DAM AND MODEL SOUNDINGS PORTRAYING A NEARLY SATURATED CLOUD
LAYER UP TO -30 C FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY...THE
UPSLOPE SNOW MACHINE WILL BE HUMMING AT FULL POWER ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES. WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES APPEAR LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS
DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SO IT HAS BEEN MENTIONED IN THE HWO.
AREAS TO THE EAST MAY STILL A FEW FLURRIES FLYING IN THE NORTHWEST
WIND...BUT NO ACCUMULATION WILL BE REALIZED AFTER THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
DEPARTS OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE HELD BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD DUE TO PERSISTENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION. ONE LAST CONCERN COULD BE THE WIND CHILL ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS THESE VALUES MAY DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BY DAWN...AND POSSIBLY HIT ZERO ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EST SATURDAY...
A DEEP ARCTIC AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP THE UPSLOPE SNOW MACHINE IN ACTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES...BUT THE PIEDMONT SHOULD STAY DRY FROM THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE SNOWFALL THREAT WILL DECREASE LATER IN
THE WORK WEEK...THE THREAT FOR LOW WIND CHILL VALUES WILL INCREASE.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS PROJECT THAT THE WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA OF -5 F IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS ON EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND EVEN LOWER TO -10 F BY
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DIVING INTO THE TEENS AND
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND A DECENT NORTHWEST BREEZE...THE WIND
CHILL THREAT IS WORTHY ENOUGH TO NOTE IN THE HWO.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD...BUT THE MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE BEYOND
THIS POINT. THE 12Z GFS TRIES TO DEVELOP ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
FROM A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS ANY MOISTURE FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE CWA. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WERE INTRODUCED.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EST SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. A DEEP
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING WELL TO OUR
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...THEN TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF THE
SC/NC COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...BUT ANY CIGS BELOW
MUCH BELOW 10KFT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE RNK TAF
SITES. TO THE WEST...A DEEPENING LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MOVING SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...THIS
SYSTEM WILL NOT APPROACH OR IMPACT THE RNK CWA UNTIL JUST BEYOND
THE TAF VALID PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT ANY TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD. THE AIR MASS IS EXTREMELY DRY...SO VISIBILITIES WILL
REMAIN VFR.
WINDS WILL REMAIN CHAOTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE REGION FALLS
BETWEEN THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW AND THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. A GENERAL TENDENCY TOWARD NNW-NNE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SEEING INFLUENCE FROM THE DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOW...WHILE LIGHT/VARIABLE TO LIGHT SW WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WINDS
WILL TRANSITION MORE TOWARD THE NNW-NW TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
VALID PERIOD. WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SPEEDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
7KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. TO THE EAST...POTENTIAL
FOR 8-12KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS KDAN-KLYH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE COASTAL LOW.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
FOR MONDAY INTO MID WEEK...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
A SECOND SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITH AN INFLUX OF VERY COLD AIR AND DEEP UPSLOPE
MOISTURE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING RESULTING IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS IN ADDITION TO LOW CIGS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR AT KBLF/KLWB AND POTENTIAL PERIODS
OF MVFR AT KBCB/KROA. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FLURRIES MAY OCCUR AS FAR EAST AS THE
PIEDMONT WHERE INTERVALS OF VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO OCCUR.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN TO MAINLY VFR LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE POSSIBLY RETURNING TO SUB-VFR AGAIN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK PASSING UPPER
IMPULSE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/JM/MBS
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JH/PM/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1019 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING TODAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO THE FAR EASTERN
MIDLANDS...MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A DRY COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL USHER IN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST WILL PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA (FA) THIS
MORNING. THE RAIN WILL SLOWLY PUSH FURTHER EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NE WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL LOW. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH PUSHING THE RAIN
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE FA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. STRATUS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE FA THIS
MORNING. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW MOVES
FURTHER OFFSHORE. GUIDANCE INDICATES MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN FA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLEARING SKIES. THE EXTREME
EASTERN FA SHOULD STAY IN THE 40S THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.
AS THE LOW OFFSHORE DEEPENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS WILL TIGHTEN. THIS WILL PROMOTE BREEZY
CONDITIONS TODAY PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA. WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT OVER AREA LAKES. WILL MAINTAIN LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR
LAKE MARION.
FAIR TONIGHT AS UPPER/SURFACE LOWS SHIFT WELL TO OUR NE. EXPECT
DIMINISHING WINDS IN THE EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE E CONUS MON/MON NT.
INDICATIONS OF A QUICK MOVING FRONT PASSING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. ACCEPTED MODEL CONSENSUS OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID TO LATE WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. MODELS MAINTAIN HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN WITH RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST. NW FLOW
ALOFT TO MAINTAIN A FEED OF COOL DRY AIR FOR OUR REGION. A
REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES TUE/WED. SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING MIN TEMPS IN THE TEENS COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE WEEK. FOR
NOW...USED GUIDANCE BLEND...WHICH PROVIDE LOW 20S THU MORNING.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING FRI/SAT. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE
PREMISE FOR SOME UPPER ENERGY AND ANOTHER FRONT LATE FRI INTO
SAT...THOUGH MOISTURE WOULD APPEAR TO BE LIMITED.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP STRATUS OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...HOWEVER RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST OF ALL TAF
SITES. STRATUS WILL LINGER OVER CAE/CUB THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND PUSH EAST OF OGB BY THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ARE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY AT OGB WHERE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RANGE FROM
10 KTS TO 15 KTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.
WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET WITH WINDS RELAXING A BIT
OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION. FOG NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MIXING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES MON THRU WED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ031-
036>038.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1053 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1053 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
THE ONSHORE FLOW AT ISQ AND SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 30S HAVE RESULTED
IN OBSERVATIONS OF VERY WET SNOW AND EVEN SOME RAIN MIXING IN. HAVE
UPDATED THE FCST FOR A FEW LOCATIONS TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW. ALSO REDUCED THE SLR AND RESULTANT SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG MUCH OF
THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. MAY STILL BE TOO HIGH. WILL CONTINUE TO
RE-EVALUATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
THE WEST COAST RESULTING NW FLOW FROM WRN CANADA INTO THE PLAINS. A
MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WAS SLIDING SE INTO NRN MN.
LIGHT SNOW OVER UPPER MI WAS SUPPORTED BY WAA AND 285K-295
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING FROM MN INTO WRN WI.
TODAY...EXPECT SNOW OVER MAINLY THE N AND E PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AS THE UPSTREAM SHRTWV TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THIS
FEATURE...THE PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF OR END AS A DRY SLOT AND WARM
SECTOR MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
TEMPS REMAIN ON TRACK TOWARD THE MILD GUIDANCE VALUES IN THE MID TO
UPPPER 30S BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SNOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE OVER THE WEST NEAR THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW. EVEN WITH THE MILD CONDITIONS...WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP PCPN TYPE AS MAINLY SNOW.
TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO ERN WI TONIGHT...A SFC
TROUGH WILL SLIDE FROM W UPPER MI DURING THE EVENING TO THE CNTRL
U.P. BY 12Z/MON. INCREASING NNE WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH CAA
DROPPING 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -8C ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL FAVOR INCREASING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
OVER THE WEST...ESPECIALLY WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS STRONGEST...NEAR
IWD. ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE DURING THE
EVENING...EXPECT THE SNOW INTENSITY TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. SO...AN
ADVY WAS ISSUED FOR GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES...STARTING AT
00Z/MON WHERE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. 1 TO 2 INCH
AMOUNTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE KEWEENAW WITH ANY SNOWFALL OVER
THE CNTRL AND EAST LESS THAN AN INCH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY NEXT WEEKEND.
MONDAY...THE PATTERN MONDAY WILL CONSIST OF AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS WITH DEEP TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
A CLOSED 500MB LOW WILL BE PARKED JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW SLIDING FROM CENTRAL UPPER MI
TO EASTERN UPPER MI BY MONDAY EVENING. THE CAA ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO DROP FROM -14C/-15C OVER THE WEST
MONDAY MORNING TO AROUND TO -17C/-18C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVER THE EAST HALF...850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -6C/-7C IN
THE MORNING BEFORE FALLING TO AROUND -10C/-11C MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THIS POINT...EXPECTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BE
DEVELOPING/ONGOING OVER THE WESTERN U.P. ON NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
UPSLOPE FLOW MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. THE
EASTERN CWA WILL HAVE SOUTHERLY WINDS MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY
BECOMING NORTH BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE WIND
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND 850MB TEMPS BEGIN TO FALL WILL EXPECT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST HALF BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 5-7KFT THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE FAR WEST WITH MUCH LOWER
INVERSION HEIGHTS EXPECTED CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WOULD LEND SUPPORT TO ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE WESTERN
U.P. THROUGH THE DAY. A GOOD DEAL OF THE MOISTURE IN THE CLOUD LAYER
WOULD BE IN THE DGZ AS WELL...HELPING TO BOOST SNOW RATIOS OVER THE
WEST. AT THIS POINT EXPECT TOTALS DURING THE DAY TO BE AROUND 2 TO 4
INCHES FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW SOUTHWEST TO IRONWOOD.
THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST NEAR LAKE
HURON BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF THE U.P. IN NORTH
TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY COOL
ON CAA INTO THE AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING FROM AROUND
-14C/-15C MONDAY NIGHT TO AROUND -20C/-22C BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...HEAVIEST IN THE NORTH
TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT AS THERE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE DGZ WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 5-
7KFT. LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL
LIKELY COME DOWN QUITE A BIT EVEN THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SNOWING. THE MUCH COLDER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE
CLOUD LAYER COLDER THAN THE IDEAL DGZ LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT GIVING MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN DUG IN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. THE CHILLY AIR AT 850MB WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THEY
WERE IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MUCH
DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST. WILL STILL SEE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH DIMINISHED RATE...FOR MORE
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER TO
THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE ON THE INFLECTION POINT
BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/EC ARE HINTING
AT A SHORTWAVE QUICKLY SLIDING THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL PROBABLY GIVE AN UPTICK IN LES FOR THE CWA WITH
ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PROVIDED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
EXPECT IFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING NRN MN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE OVER NE MN AND FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z...PUSHING MUCH OF
THE INITIAL AREA OF SNOW NE IN THE AFTERNOON. STEADIER SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA AGAIN THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY
WEST AS CONDITIONS DROP TO LIFR OR NEAR LIFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY MON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N AND INCREASE
TO 30KTS AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH
PRES BUILDING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL
CONTINUEINTO WED. WITH THE INFLUX OF COLDER AIR AND STRONG
WINDS...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM MON NIGHT
INTO WED AS WELL. THE WINDS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL DIMINISH
LATER ON WED/THU AS THE HIGH PRES EDGES CLOSER TO THE WESTERN LAKES.
THERE MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FRI FOLLOWING
ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO
7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ MONDAY FOR MIZ002-009.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KF
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
702 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
THE WEST COAST RESULTING NW FLOW FROM WRN CANADA INTO THE PLAINS. A
MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WAS SLIDING SE INTO NRN MN.
LIGHT SNOW OVER UPPER MI WAS SUPPORTED BY WAA AND 285K-295
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING FROM MN INTO WRN WI.
TODAY...EXPECT SNOW OVER MAINLY THE N AND E PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AS THE UPSTREAM SHRTWV TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THIS
FEATURE...THE PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF OR END AS A DRY SLOT AND WARM
SECTOR MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
TEMPS REMAIN ON TRACK TOWARD THE MILD GUIDANCE VALUES IN THE MID TO
UPPPER 30S BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SNOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE OVER THE WEST NEAR THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW. EVEN WITH THE MILD CONDITIONS...WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP PCPN TYPE AS MAINLY SNOW.
TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO ERN WI TONIGHT...A SFC
TROUGH WILL SLIDE FROM W UPPER MI DURING THE EVENING TO THE CNTRL
U.P. BY 12Z/MON. INCREASING NNE WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH CAA
DROPPING 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -8C ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL FAVOR INCREASING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
OVER THE WEST...ESPECIALLY WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS STRONGEST...NEAR
IWD. ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE DURING THE
EVENING...EXPECT THE SNOW INTENSITY TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. SO...AN
ADVY WAS ISSUED FOR GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES...STARTING AT
00Z/MON WHERE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. 1 TO 2 INCH
AMOUNTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE KEWEENAW WITH ANY SNOWFALL OVER
THE CNTRL AND EAST LESS THAN AN INCH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY NEXT WEEKEND.
MONDAY...THE PATTERN MONDAY WILL CONSIST OF AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS WITH DEEP TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
A CLOSED 500MB LOW WILL BE PARKED JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW SLIDING FROM CENTRAL UPPER MI
TO EASTERN UPPER MI BY MONDAY EVENING. THE CAA ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO DROP FROM -14C/-15C OVER THE WEST
MONDAY MORNING TO AROUND TO -17C/-18C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVER THE EAST HALF...850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -6C/-7C IN
THE MORNING BEFORE FALLING TO AROUND -10C/-11C MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THIS POINT...EXPECTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BE
DEVELOPING/ONGOING OVER THE WESTERN U.P. ON NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
UPSLOPE FLOW MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. THE
EASTERN CWA WILL HAVE SOUTHERLY WINDS MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY
BECOMING NORTH BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE WIND
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND 850MB TEMPS BEGIN TO FALL WILL EXPECT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST HALF BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 5-7KFT THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE FAR WEST WITH MUCH LOWER
INVERSION HEIGHTS EXPECTED CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WOULD LEND SUPPORT TO ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE WESTERN
U.P. THROUGH THE DAY. A GOOD DEAL OF THE MOISTURE IN THE CLOUD LAYER
WOULD BE IN THE DGZ AS WELL...HELPING TO BOOST SNOW RATIOS OVER THE
WEST. AT THIS POINT EXPECT TOTALS DURING THE DAY TO BE AROUND 2 TO 4
INCHES FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW SOUTHWEST TO IRONWOOD.
THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST NEAR LAKE
HURON BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF THE U.P. IN NORTH
TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY COOL
ON CAA INTO THE AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING FROM AROUND
-14C/-15C MONDAY NIGHT TO AROUND -20C/-22C BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...HEAVIEST IN THE NORTH
TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT AS THERE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE DGZ WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 5-
7KFT. LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL
LIKELY COME DOWN QUITE A BIT EVEN THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SNOWING. THE MUCH COLDER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE
CLOUD LAYER COLDER THAN THE IDEAL DGZ LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT GIVING MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN DUG IN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. THE CHILLY AIR AT 850MB WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THEY
WERE IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MUCH
DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST. WILL STILL SEE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH DIMINISHED RATE...FOR MORE
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER TO
THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE ON THE INFLECTION POINT
BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/EC ARE HINTING
AT A SHORTWAVE QUICKLY SLIDING THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL PROBABLY GIVE AN UPTICK IN LES FOR THE CWA WITH
ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PROVIDED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
EXPECT IFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING NRN MN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE OVER NE MN AND FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z...PUSHING MUCH OF
THE INITIAL AREA OF SNOW NE IN THE AFTERNOON. STEADIER SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA AGAIN THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY
WEST AS CONDITIONS DROP TO LIFR OR NEAR LIFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY MON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N AND INCREASE
TO 30KTS AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH
PRES BUILDING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL
CONTINUEINTO WED. WITH THE INFLUX OF COLDER AIR AND STRONG
WINDS...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM MON NIGHT
INTO WED AS WELL. THE WINDS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL DIMINISH
LATER ON WED/THU AS THE HIGH PRES EDGES CLOSER TO THE WESTERN LAKES.
THERE MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FRI FOLLOWING
ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO
7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ MONDAY FOR MIZ002-009.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
524 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
THE WEST COAST RESULTING NW FLOW FROM WRN CANADA INTO THE PLAINS. A
MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WAS SLIDING SE INTO NRN MN.
LIGHT SNOW OVER UPPER MI WAS SUPPORTED BY WAA AND 285K-295
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING FROM MN INTO WRN WI.
TODAY...EXPECT SNOW OVER MAINLY THE N AND E PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AS THE UPSTREAM SHRTWV TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THIS
FEATURE...THE PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF OR END AS A DRY SLOT AND WARM
SECTOR MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
TEMPS REMAIN ON TRACK TOWARD THE MILD GUIDANCE VALUES IN THE MID TO
UPPPER 30S BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SNOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE OVER THE WEST NEAR THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW. EVEN WITH THE MILD CONDITIONS...WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP PCPN TYPE AS MAINLY SNOW.
TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO ERN WI TONIGHT...A SFC
TROUGH WILL SLIDE FROM W UPPER MI DURING THE EVENING TO THE CNTRL
U.P. BY 12Z/MON. INCREASING NNE WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH CAA
DROPPING 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -8C ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL FAVOR INCREASING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
OVER THE WEST...ESPECIALLY WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS STRONGEST...NEAR
IWD. ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE DURING THE
EVENING...EXPECT THE SNOW INTENSITY TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. SO...AN
ADVY WAS ISSUED FOR GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES...STARTING AT
00Z/MON WHERE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. 1 TO 2 INCH
AMOUNTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE KEWEENAW WITH ANY SNOWFALL OVER
THE CNTRL AND EAST LESS THAN AN INCH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY NEXT WEEKEND.
MONDAY...THE PATTERN MONDAY WILL CONSIST OF AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS WITH DEEP TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
A CLOSED 500MB LOW WILL BE PARKED JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW SLIDING FROM CENTRAL UPPER MI
TO EASTERN UPPER MI BY MONDAY EVENING. THE CAA ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO DROP FROM -14C/-15C OVER THE WEST
MONDAY MORNING TO AROUND TO -17C/-18C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVER THE EAST HALF...850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -6C/-7C IN
THE MORNING BEFORE FALLING TO AROUND -10C/-11C MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THIS POINT...EXPECTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BE
DEVELOPING/ONGOING OVER THE WESTERN U.P. ON NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
UPSLOPE FLOW MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. THE
EASTERN CWA WILL HAVE SOUTHERLY WINDS MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY
BECOMING NORTH BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE WIND
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND 850MB TEMPS BEGIN TO FALL WILL EXPECT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST HALF BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 5-7KFT THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE FAR WEST WITH MUCH LOWER
INVERSION HEIGHTS EXPECTED CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WOULD LEND SUPPORT TO ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE WESTERN
U.P. THROUGH THE DAY. A GOOD DEAL OF THE MOISTURE IN THE CLOUD LAYER
WOULD BE IN THE DGZ AS WELL...HELPING TO BOOST SNOW RATIOS OVER THE
WEST. AT THIS POINT EXPECT TOTALS DURING THE DAY TO BE AROUND 2 TO 4
INCHES FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW SOUTHWEST TO IRONWOOD.
THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST NEAR LAKE
HURON BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF THE U.P. IN NORTH
TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY COOL
ON CAA INTO THE AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING FROM AROUND
-14C/-15C MONDAY NIGHT TO AROUND -20C/-22C BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...HEAVIEST IN THE NORTH
TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT AS THERE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE DGZ WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 5-
7KFT. LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL
LIKELY COME DOWN QUITE A BIT EVEN THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SNOWING. THE MUCH COLDER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE
CLOUD LAYER COLDER THAN THE IDEAL DGZ LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT GIVING MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN DUG IN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. THE CHILLY AIR AT 850MB WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THEY
WERE IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MUCH
DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST. WILL STILL SEE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH DIMINISHED RATE...FOR MORE
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER TO
THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE ON THE INFLECTION POINT
BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/EC ARE HINTING
AT A SHORTWAVE QUICKLY SLIDING THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL PROBABLY GIVE AN UPTICK IN LES FOR THE CWA WITH
ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PROVIDED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
EXPECT MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM S CENTRAL CANADA/NRN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE TAF SITES INTO SUN MORNING.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER NE MN/W LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z
SUNDAY...PUSHING MUCH OF THE INITIAL AREA OF SNOW NE IN THE
AFTERNOON. STEADIER SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY WEST AS CONDITIONS COULD LOWER TO
IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY MON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N AND INCREASE
TO 30KTS AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH
PRES BUILDING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL
CONTINUEINTO WED. WITH THE INFLUX OF COLDER AIR AND STRONG
WINDS...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM MON NIGHT
INTO WED AS WELL. THE WINDS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL DIMINISH
LATER ON WED/THU AS THE HIGH PRES EDGES CLOSER TO THE WESTERN LAKES.
THERE MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FRI FOLLOWING
ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO
7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ MONDAY FOR MIZ002-009.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
920 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY...WITH A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 916 AM EST SUNDAY...FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING
WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO CAPTURE LATEST SURFACE TRENDS. CURRENT
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK/SHALLOW BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING
DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
HIGHLY TERRAIN DRIVEN DOWN THE VALLEYS WITH A FEW FLURRIES LIKELY
ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND COOL
AIR ADVECTION EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL SEVERAL
DEGREES ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN SECTIONS...WITH WARMEST
VALUES NEAR VSF WITH SOME SUN. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S...ALL COVERED WELL IN CURRENT FORECAST.
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AS THAT BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SOME LIGHT SNOW AND OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
AROUND 16Z. AFTER THAT EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP AND THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET. ADJUSTED POPS
AND WEATHER TO BLEND IN CURRENT OBS AND THE SAME FOR TEMPS AND
DEW POINTS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 352 AM EST SUNDAY...A RELATIVELY QUIET
DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP MONDAY. A SURFACE FRONT AND
SOME ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA AND THE BEST
MOISTURE WITH THAT WILL ALSO STAY TO OUR NORTH. FLURRIES AND OR
LIGHT SNOW CAN`T BE RULED OUT HOWEVER AS WE WILL SEE SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SO AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY AND WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS
AND STAYING IN THE MID 20S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT RIVER
VALLEYS. ALL IN ALL A VERY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTH
COUNTRY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SUNDAY...THE REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN TWO WEATHER
SYSTEMS ON MONDAY...WITH A DEEPENING OCEAN STORM MOVING NORTHEAST
OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA AND UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC ON MONDAY WITH FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODEL
AGAIN DEVELOP ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
TUESDAY...BUT AGAIN HEAD IT OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK (40N
70W). TEMPERATURES AGAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SUNDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING A STRONG SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR...WITH HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO AROUND 10 ABOVE. THE ARCTIC AIR
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. LOWS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW ZERO SATURDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR CIGS AND VIS TRENDING TOWARDS
POSSIBLE MVFR BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECT FOR KMSS/KSLK/KPBG/KBTV WHILE KMPV/KRUT REMAIN VFR. BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR AND LATEST RAP GUIDANCE I WENT AHEAD AND TEMPO`D
IN SOME LIGHT SNOW AT PBG/SLK/BTV FOR THE FRONT. THE OVERALL
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AND IFR IS NOT EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY UNDER 10 KTS AND WILL BACK AROUND TO
THE NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT DROPS THOUGH THE AREA .
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
657 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY...WITH A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM EST SUNDAY...
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AS THAT BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SOME LIGHT SNOW AND OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
AROUND 16Z. AFTER THAT EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP AND THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET. ADJUSTED POPS
AND WEATHER TO BLEND IN CURRENT OBS AND THE SAME FOR TEMPS AND
DEW POINTS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 352 AM EST SUNDAY...A RELATIVELY QUIET
DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP MONDAY. A SURFACE FRONT AND
SOME ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA AND THE BEST
MOISTURE WITH THAT WILL ALSO STAY TO OUR NORTH. FLURRIES AND OR
LIGHT SNOW CAN`T BE RULED OUT HOWEVER AS WE WILL SEE SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SO AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY AND WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS
AND STAYING IN THE MID 20S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT RIVER
VALLEYS. ALL IN ALL A VERY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTH
COUNTRY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SUNDAY...THE REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN TWO WEATHER
SYSTEMS ON MONDAY...WITH A DEEPENING OCEAN STORM MOVING NORTHEAST
OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA AND UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC ON MONDAY WITH FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODEL
AGAIN DEVELOP ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
TUESDAY...BUT AGAIN HEAD IT OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK (40N
70W). TEMPERATURES AGAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SUNDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING A STRONG SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR...WITH HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO AROUND 10 ABOVE. THE ARCTIC AIR
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. LOWS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW ZERO SATURDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR CIGS AND VIS TRENDING TOWARDS
POSSIBLE MVFR BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECT FOR KMSS/KSLK/KPBG/KBTV WHILE KMPV/KRUT REMAIN VFR. BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR AND LATEST RAP GUIDANCE I WENT AHEAD AND TEMPO`D
IN SOME LIGHT SNOW AT PBG/SLK/BTV FOR THE FRONT. THE OVERALL
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AND IFR IS NOT EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY UNDER 10 KTS AND WILL BACK AROUND TO
THE NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT DROPS THOUGH THE AREA .
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1021 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND MOVE AWAY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM SUNDAY...
...SHORT FUSE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JOHNSTON...WAYNE...WILSON
AND SAMPSON COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS
REPORTED FROM BURSTS OF HEAVIER SLEET...
MSAS SHOWS A ~1003MB SURFACE LOW EAST OF CHARLESTON SC THIS
MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO A 553DM UPPER LOW PIVOTING OVER THE
SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN. THE PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWEST OF THE LOW
EXTENDS THROUGH THE NC COASTAL PLAIN....WHERE TEMP PROFILES ARE
MARGINAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PTYPES...A SLIGHT WARM NOSE OF 1-2C AT
5K FT AND SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 33-35F RANGE. HOWEVER...IN THE PAST
HOUR OR SO THE RATES HAVE BEEN HIGH ENOUGH FOR MELTING AND
WETBULBING TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF PREDOMINATELY SLEET IN
WILSON....WAYNE...JOHNSTON...AND NORTHERN SAMPSON COUNTIES. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE COUNTIES GIVEN
NUMEROUS TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS. DUAL POL CC SUGGESTS LIGHT TO MODERATE
SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR WEST AS RALEIGH AND SANFORD AS WELL.
RAP AND HRRR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE SMALL WARM NOSE CONTINUING TO COOL
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...SO ITS ENTIRELY POSSIBLY THAT PERIODS OF
MODERATE SLEET MAY PRODUCE A HALF INCH OF SO SLEET....WITH ANOTHER
QUARTER INCH OF QPF STILL POSSIBLE AS THE PRECIP BAND PIVOTS OVER
THE AREA.
A DOWNWARD TEND IN PRECIP...ALBEIT LIKELY VERY SLOW...IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DEEPENS EAST OF CAPE FEAR AND
THEN FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE EAST AND FURTHER OFFSHORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 321 AM SUNDAY...
REGARDLESS OF HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST A COASTAL LOW WOBBLES AS IT
BOMBS OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...THE
RESULTANT DEEP CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND
AWAY FROM THE NC COAST TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A
"KICKER" VORTEX AND ACCOMPANYING ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN SHORT
WAVELENGTH FLOW ALOFT...FORECAST TO PIVOT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO
THE TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS THROUGH EARLY MON. CLEARING SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
AN AREA OF BROAD BUT STRONG 100-150 METER HEIGHT FALLS AND
COOLING/FGEN ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT AND POCKET OF
STEEP (7.5 C/KM) 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES...WILL SUPPORT THE
EASTWARD MAINTENANCE OF A BAND OF SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL NC DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A "WARMING" DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST
FLOW...INCLUDING A SSW SURFACE BREEZE AND TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S...WILL ENSURE THIS ACTIVITY
WILL FALL AS RAIN.
MONDAY NIGHT: STRONG CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONTAL
PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MILLER-B SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS MOVING
OFF THE NC/VA COAST MONDAY EVENING....MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF
TRANSITION/CHANGE-OVER TO A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES BEFORE PRECIP ENDS
ACROSS THE AREA. NO ACCUMULATIONS/IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS
TUESDAY MORNING IN THE MID 20S NORTHWEST PIEDMONT TO LOWER 30S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 335 1M SUNDAY...
MOISTURE WILL BE SCARCE...BUT PERIODS OF STRONG DCVA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH STOUT VORT LOBES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE ANOMALOUS
DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE(H5 ANOMALIES 2 TO 4 SD BELOW
NORMAL)ACROSS THE EASTERN US WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES
ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.
THE BIG WEATHER STORY HERE WILL BE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH H8 TEMPS IN THE -12 TO -15C RANGE AND LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES BOTTOMING OUT TO AROUND 1240M WEDNESDAY NIGHT...60 TO 70
METERS BELOW NORMAL! HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON FRIDAY AS THE COLD UPPER
TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...
THIS WARMING TREND WILL NOT LAST LONG AS AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERN US TROUGH WILL BRING A
REINFORCEMENT OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY. SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FROZEN PRECIP AS THE UPPER WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.
HOWEVER SINCE MOISTURE IS TYPICALLY LIMITED IN NW FLOW EVENTS...WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 625 AM SUNDAY...
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CIGS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST... WITH VFR CIGS NW TODAY. PERIODS OF MVFR
VSBYS WITH LIGHT RAIN AND FOG EXPECTED FROM KFAY TO KRWI THROUGH
21Z... THEN IMPROVING AS RAIN ENDS. WHILE CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
IN IN TERMS OF PRECIP TYPE...WE STILL HAVE CHALLENGES OF HOW FAR NW
THE PRECIPITATION WILL REACH. IF THE PRECIPITATION REACHES THE KRDU
AREA... IT WOULD BE PREDOMINATELY LIGHT SNOW/SLEET BETWEEN 13Z-18Z
OR SO. THE PRECIP WILL STAY TO THE SE OF THE KGSO AREA.
THE WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AS THE LOW DEVELOPS OFFSHORE TODAY...
TO 10-20KT FROM THE NORTH. GUSTS TO 25KT IN THE KFAY AREA EXPECTED
INTO TONIGHT.
CLEARING TO VFR TONIGHT AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY AND THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10KT OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS....ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS...LATE MONDAY... AND AGAIN MAINLY AT NORTHERN TAF SITES
LATE TUESDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ042-043-078-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT/SMITH
SHORT TERM...BADGETT/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BADGETT/2
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1015 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND MOVE AWAY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1015 AM SUNDAY...
...SHORT FUSE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JOHNSTON...WAYNE...WILSON
AND SAMPSON COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS
REPORTED FROM BURSTS OF HEAVIER SLEET...
MSAS SHOWS A ~1003MB SURFACE LOW EAST OF CHARLESTON SC THIS
MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO A 553DM UPPER LOW PIVOTING OVER THE
SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN. THE PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWEST OF THE LOW
EXTENDS THROUGH THE NC COASTAL PLAIN....WHERE TEMP PROFILES ARE
MARGINAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PTYPES...A SLIGHT WARM NOSE OF 1-2C AT
5K FT AND SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 33-35F RANGE. HOWEVER...IN THE PAST
HOUR OR SO THE RATES HAVE BEEN HIGH ENOUGH FOR MELTING AND
WETBULBING TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF PREDOMINATELY SLEET IN
WILSON....WAYNE...JOHNSTON...AND NORTHERN SAMPSON COUNTIES. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE COUNTIES GIVEN
NUMEROUS TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS. DUAL POL CC SUGGESTS LIGHT TO MODERATE
SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR WEST AS RALEIGH AND SANFORD AS WELL.
RAP AND HRRR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE SMALL WARM NOSE CONTINUING TO COOL
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...SO ITS ENTIRELY POSSIBLY THAT PERIODS OF
MODERATE SLEET MAY PRODUCE A HALF INCH OF SO SLEET....WITH ANOTHER
QUARTER INCH OF QPF STILL POSSIBLE AS THE PRECIP BAND PIVOTS OVER
THE AREA.
A DOWNWARD TEND IN PRECIP...ALBEIT LIKELY VERY SLOW...IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DEEPENS EAST OF CAPE FEAR AND
THEN FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE EAST AND FURTHER OFFSHORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 321 AM SUNDAY...
REGARDLESS OF HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST A COASTAL LOW WOBBLES AS IT
BOMBS OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...THE
RESULTANT DEEP CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND
AWAY FROM THE NC COAST TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A
"KICKER" VORTEX AND ACCOMPANYING ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN SHORT
WAVELENGTH FLOW ALOFT...FORECAST TO PIVOT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO
THE TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS THROUGH EARLY MON. CLEARING SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
AN AREA OF BROAD BUT STRONG 100-150 METER HEIGHT FALLS AND
COOLING/FGEN ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT AND POCKET OF
STEEP (7.5 C/KM) 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES...WILL SUPPORT THE
EASTWARD MAINTENANCE OF A BAND OF SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL NC DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A "WARMING" DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST
FLOW...INCLUDING A SSW SURFACE BREEZE AND TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S...WILL ENSURE THIS ACTIVITY
WILL FALL AS RAIN.
MONDAY NIGHT: STRONG CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONTAL
PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MILLER-B SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS MOVING
OFF THE NC/VA COAST MONDAY EVENING....MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF
TRANSITION/CHANGE-OVER TO A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES BEFORE PRECIP ENDS
ACROSS THE AREA. NO ACCUMULATIONS/IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS
TUESDAY MORNING IN THE MID 20S NORTHWEST PIEDMONT TO LOWER 30S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 335 1M SUNDAY...
MOISTURE WILL BE SCARCE...BUT PERIODS OF STRONG DCVA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH STOUT VORT LOBES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE ANOMALOUS
DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE(H5 ANOMALIES 2 TO 4 SD BELOW
NORMAL)ACROSS THE EASTERN US WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES
ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.
THE BIG WEATHER STORY HERE WILL BE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH H8 TEMPS IN THE -12 TO -15C RANGE AND LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES BOTTOMING OUT TO AROUND 1240M WEDNESDAY NIGHT...60 TO 70
METERS BELOW NORMAL! HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON FRIDAY AS THE COLD UPPER
TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...
THIS WARMING TREND WILL NOT LAST LONG AS AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERN US TROUGH WILL BRING A
REINFORCEMENT OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY. SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FROZEN PRECIP AS THE UPPER WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.
HOWEVER SINCE MOISTURE IS TYPICALLY LIMITED IN NW FLOW EVENTS...WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 625 AM SUNDAY...
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CIGS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST... WITH VFR CIGS NW TODAY. PERIODS OF MVFR
VSBYS WITH LIGHT RAIN AND FOG EXPECTED FROM KFAY TO KRWI THROUGH
21Z... THEN IMPROVING AS RAIN ENDS. WHILE CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
IN IN TERMS OF PRECIP TYPE...WE STILL HAVE CHALLENGES OF HOW FAR NW
THE PRECIPITATION WILL REACH. IF THE PRECIPITATION REACHES THE KRDU
AREA... IT WOULD BE PREDOMINATELY LIGHT SNOW/SLEET BETWEEN 13Z-18Z
OR SO. THE PRECIP WILL STAY TO THE SE OF THE KGSO AREA.
THE WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AS THE LOW DEVELOPS OFFSHORE TODAY...
TO 10-20KT FROM THE NORTH. GUSTS TO 25KT IN THE KFAY AREA EXPECTED
INTO TONIGHT.
CLEARING TO VFR TONIGHT AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY AND THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10KT OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS....ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS...LATE MONDAY... AND AGAIN MAINLY AT NORTHERN TAF SITES
LATE TUESDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT/SMITH
SHORT TERM...BADGETT/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BADGETT/2
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
112 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
COAST MOVES TO THE NE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A DRY COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL USHER
IN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA (FA). THE RAIN WILL SLOWLY PUSH FURTHER EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NE WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL LOW. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH PUSHING THE RAIN
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE FA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. STRATUS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE FA THIS
MORNING. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW MOVES
FURTHER OFFSHORE. GUIDANCE INDICATES MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN FA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A
TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FA. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN IN THE 40S TO THE EAST WHERE OVERCAST SKIES PERSIST INTO
THE LATE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE CAN EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S.
AS THE LOW OFFSHORE DEEPENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS WILL TIGHTEN. THIS WILL PROMOTE BREEZY
CONDITIONS TODAY PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA. WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT OVER AREA LAKES. WILL MAINTAIN LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR
LAKE MARION.
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. A 25 KT LLJ
WILL PROMOTE SOME MIXING AND ALLOW FOR WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5
KTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE E CONUS MON/MON NT.
INDICATIONS OF A QUICK MOVING FRONT PASSING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. ACCEPTED MODEL CONSENSUS OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID TO LATE WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. MODELS MAINTAIN HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN WITH RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST. NW FLOW ALOFT
TO MAINTAIN A FEED OF COOL DRY AIR FOR OUR REGION. A REINFORCING
DRY COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES TUE/WED. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING MIN TEMPS
IN THE TEENS COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE WEEK. FOR NOW...USED GUIDANCE
BLEND...WHICH PROVIDE LOW 20S THU MORNING. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE PREMISE FOR SOME UPPER ENERGY AND ANOTHER FRONT LATE FRI
INTO SAT...THOUGH MOISTURE WOULD APPEAR TO BE LIMITED. WILL
MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH GUSTY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
STRATUS WILL LINGER OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FA THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS NE. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RANGE FROM
10 KTS TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. WIND
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE
WESTERLY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION. FOG NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MIXING.
GUSTY WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP LATE MONDAY MORNING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES MON THRU WED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ031-
036>038.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
104 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
COAST MOVES TO THE NE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A DRY COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL USHER
IN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA (FA). THE RAIN WILL SLOWLY PUSH FURTHER EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NE WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL LOW. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH PUSHING THE RAIN
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE FA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. STRATUS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE FA THIS
MORNING. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW MOVES
FURTHER OFFSHORE. GUIDANCE INDICATES MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN FA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A
TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FA. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN IN THE 40S TO THE EAST WHERE OVERCAST SKIES PERSIST INTO
THE LATE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE CAN EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S.
AS THE LOW OFFSHORE DEEPENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS WILL TIGHTEN. THIS WILL PROMOTE BREEZY
CONDITIONS TODAY PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA. WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT OVER AREA LAKES. WILL MAINTAIN LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR
LAKE MARION.
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. A 25 KT LLJ
WILL PROMOTE SOME MIXING AND ALLOW FOR WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5
KTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE E CONUS MON/MON NT.
INDICATIONS OF A QUICK MOVING FRONT PASSING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. ACCEPTED MODEL CONSENSUS OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID TO LATE WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. MODELS MAINTAIN HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN WITH RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST. NW FLOW
ALOFT TO MAINTAIN A FEED OF COOL DRY AIR FOR OUR REGION. A
REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES TUE/WED. SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING MIN TEMPS IN THE TEENS COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE WEEK. FOR
NOW...USED GUIDANCE BLEND...WHICH PROVIDE LOW 20S THU MORNING.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING FRI/SAT. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE
PREMISE FOR SOME UPPER ENERGY AND ANOTHER FRONT LATE FRI INTO
SAT...THOUGH MOISTURE WOULD APPEAR TO BE LIMITED.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH GUSTY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
STRATUS WILL LINGER OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FA THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS NE. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RANGE FROM
10 KTS TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. WIND
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE
WESTERLY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION. FOG NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MIXING.
GUSTY WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP LATE MONDAY MORNING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES MON THRU WED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ031-
036>038.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
256 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
...Updated Short term and Long term discussions...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
An upper level disturbance that was located across the Northern
Plains at 12z Sunday will quickly move southeast across the
Central Plains through early this evening. As this upper level
system moves into the mid Mississippi valley overnight an upper
level ridge axis will begin to build slowly east into the western
United States. Subsidence developing in the wake of the upper
level trough overnight will yield clear/clearing skies, however
based on the expected winds overnight and the temperatures
forecast in the mixed layer near the surface will continue to
favor lows mainly in the mid 20s. Lighter wind speeds are expected
near the Colorado border overnight so lows will be cooler across
far western Kansas, especially west/northwest of Garden City.
Very Windy conditions will return to western Kansas during the
day on Monday based on the expected mean winds in the mixed layer
between 18z Monday and 00z Tuesday. At this time based on the NAM
and GFS the stronger winds will be located east of a Garden City
to Liberal Line. In this area sustained winds of 30 to 35 mph will
be possible at times, especially if the GFS verifies. As for
temperatures...based on the mixing depth late day along with the
temperatures at the level at 00z Tuesday the highs are expected to
vary from the mid to upper 30s in north central Kansas to the
upper 40s to near 50 in far southwest Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
A warming trend can then be expected for Tuesday and Wednesday
given the improving downslope flow forecast across far western
Kansas. Across southwest Kansas temperatures by Wednesday
afternoon should warm into the upper 60s to near 70 based on the
warming trend from the GFS in the 900mb to 850mb level.
Temperatures will also warm in north central and south central
Kansas but not as much with highs expected range from 50 to 55.
A northwest flow will persist across the Central Plains and
Northern Plains late week as an upper level ridge axis slowly
moves east across the western United States. A subtle upper level
disturbance embedded in this persistent northwesterly flow will
cross the central plains on Thursday and this will bring a weak
surface boundary back across western Kansas late week. Behind this
front some cooler air will return, but at this time it appears
what cooling that does occur on Thursday will be minor and mainly
confined to north central Kansas. Another front will move across
western Kansas over the weekend period as another upper level
disturbance crosses the Central Plains.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
Gusty northwest winds will range from 20 to near 25 knots this
afternoon based the mean mixed down winds from the RAP and GFS
this afternoon. The strongest afternoon winds will be in the Hays
area through 00z Monday. These gusty northwest winds will then
fall back into the 15 to 20 knot range after sunset. Mid to high
level clouds will be on the increase this afternoon as an upper
level disturbance crosses the Central Plains.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 25 43 25 54 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 22 44 24 55 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 25 48 30 62 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 25 48 26 61 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 25 38 25 46 / 0 0 0 0
P28 28 45 26 54 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1120 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
...Updated Synopsis and Aviation Discussion...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
At 12z Sunday a 500mb ridge axis was extended north from the
Coast of California to western British Columbia. A northwest flow
was evident across the Central United States and embedded in this
northwest flow was an upper level trough that was located over the
Northern Plains. This upper level trough was also associated with
the left exit region of a 250mb jet that stretched from western
Nebraska to north central Montana. A surface cold front at 12z
Sunday extended from the panhandle of Texas to northwest Missouri.
850mb temperatures north of this cold front ranged from +4C at
Dodge City to +1C at North Platte. Rapid City reported at 850mb
temperature of -2c.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
The biggest challenge will be wind speed magnitude today. An
intense storm system in the larger scale northwest flow pattern
will dive southeast from the Northern Plains into the Midwest
region today. The 800-700mb layer height gradient will increase
quite a bit this afternoon between the the trough axis across Iowa
and an upper high over the Desert Southwest/California. 00z GFS
model shows mean 800-700mb winds increasing from 40-45 knots at
15z across west-central KS to 60-70 knots by 21z! While we will
not mix to this pressure level, we will still see plenty of
momentum within the mixed layer this afternoon supporting surface
winds around 30 knots sustained across portions of west central
KS...and in the 25-30 knot range over much of the rest of west
central and southwest Kansas. In the grids, the WRF-ARW 10-meter
winds match the GFS kinematics fairly well, so the official wind
forecast will reflect very much the WRF-ARW winds with even a bit
of a bump up from that a few knots. As far as temperatures go,
much of this colder airmass coming in behind this trough/front
passage will be downslope modified, so it will not impact
temperatures much at all.
.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
The intense lower-mid tropospheric pressure gradient will persist
across western/central KS on Monday with similar winds forecast as
Sunday over the same general areas. We will finally see the
gradient relax some by Tuesday with slightly warmer downslope air
beginning to move in. Far southwest KS will see the greatest
benefit from the downslope component with highs Tuesday in the
lower 60s from Elkhart to Liberal, whereas mid to upper 40s are
forecast up around Hays. This southwest to northeast temperature
gradient will persist through the week as we remain in a northwest
flow regime. By late in the week, the forecast becomes a bit more
problematic as any wiggle in the northwest flow pattern will bring
some colder in from the northeast (quasi-stationary backdoor cold
front). We could see some impressive temperature gradients across
Kansas late in the week going into the weekend with far southwest
Kansas seeing upper 60s to lower 70s whereas portions of
northern/central KS remain in the 30s and 40s. We will need to see
a breakdown of the northwest flow pattern before we see any
meaningful chances for precipitation, which wouldn`t be until
14-15 February at the earliest.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
Gusty northwest winds will range from 20 to near 25 knots this
afternoon based the mean mixed down winds from the RAP and GFS
this afternoon. The strongest afternoon winds will be in the Hays
area through 00z Monday. These gusty northwest winds will then
fall back into the 15 to 20 knot range after sunset. Mid to high
level clouds will be on the increase this afternoon as an upper
level disturbance crosses the Central Plains.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 48 25 43 25 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 46 22 43 24 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 49 25 48 30 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 51 25 47 26 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 42 25 37 25 / 0 0 0 0
P28 55 28 44 26 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1244 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1053 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
THE ONSHORE FLOW AT ISQ AND SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 30S HAVE RESULTED
IN OBSERVATIONS OF VERY WET SNOW AND EVEN SOME RAIN MIXING IN. HAVE
UPDATED THE FCST FOR A FEW LOCATIONS TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN/SNOW. ALSO REDUCED THE SLR AND RESULTANT SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG
MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. MAY STILL BE TOO HIGH. WILL
CONTINUE TO RE-EVALUATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
THE WEST COAST RESULTING NW FLOW FROM WRN CANADA INTO THE PLAINS. A
MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WAS SLIDING SE INTO NRN MN.
LIGHT SNOW OVER UPPER MI WAS SUPPORTED BY WAA AND 285K-295
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING FROM MN INTO WRN WI.
TODAY...EXPECT SNOW OVER MAINLY THE N AND E PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AS THE UPSTREAM SHRTWV TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THIS
FEATURE...THE PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF OR END AS A DRY SLOT AND WARM
SECTOR MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
TEMPS REMAIN ON TRACK TOWARD THE MILD GUIDANCE VALUES IN THE MID TO
UPPPER 30S BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SNOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE OVER THE WEST NEAR THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW. EVEN WITH THE MILD CONDITIONS...WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP PCPN TYPE AS MAINLY SNOW.
TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO ERN WI TONIGHT...A SFC
TROUGH WILL SLIDE FROM W UPPER MI DURING THE EVENING TO THE CNTRL
U.P. BY 12Z/MON. INCREASING NNE WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH CAA
DROPPING 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -8C ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL FAVOR INCREASING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
OVER THE WEST...ESPECIALLY WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS STRONGEST...NEAR
IWD. ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE DURING THE
EVENING...EXPECT THE SNOW INTENSITY TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. SO...AN
ADVY WAS ISSUED FOR GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES...STARTING AT
00Z/MON WHERE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. 1 TO 2 INCH
AMOUNTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE KEWEENAW WITH ANY SNOWFALL OVER
THE CNTRL AND EAST LESS THAN AN INCH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY NEXT WEEKEND.
MONDAY...THE PATTERN MONDAY WILL CONSIST OF AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS WITH DEEP TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
A CLOSED 500MB LOW WILL BE PARKED JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW SLIDING FROM CENTRAL UPPER MI
TO EASTERN UPPER MI BY MONDAY EVENING. THE CAA ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO DROP FROM -14C/-15C OVER THE WEST
MONDAY MORNING TO AROUND TO -17C/-18C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVER THE EAST HALF...850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -6C/-7C IN
THE MORNING BEFORE FALLING TO AROUND -10C/-11C MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THIS POINT...EXPECTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BE
DEVELOPING/ONGOING OVER THE WESTERN U.P. ON NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
UPSLOPE FLOW MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. THE
EASTERN CWA WILL HAVE SOUTHERLY WINDS MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY
BECOMING NORTH BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE WIND
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND 850MB TEMPS BEGIN TO FALL WILL EXPECT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST HALF BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 5-7KFT THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE FAR WEST WITH MUCH LOWER
INVERSION HEIGHTS EXPECTED CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WOULD LEND SUPPORT TO ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE WESTERN
U.P. THROUGH THE DAY. A GOOD DEAL OF THE MOISTURE IN THE CLOUD LAYER
WOULD BE IN THE DGZ AS WELL...HELPING TO BOOST SNOW RATIOS OVER THE
WEST. AT THIS POINT EXPECT TOTALS DURING THE DAY TO BE AROUND 2 TO 4
INCHES FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW SOUTHWEST TO IRONWOOD.
THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST NEAR LAKE
HURON BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF THE U.P. IN NORTH
TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY COOL
ON CAA INTO THE AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING FROM AROUND
-14C/-15C MONDAY NIGHT TO AROUND -20C/-22C BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...HEAVIEST IN THE NORTH
TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT AS THERE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE DGZ WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 5-
7KFT. LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL
LIKELY COME DOWN QUITE A BIT EVEN THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SNOWING. THE MUCH COLDER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE
CLOUD LAYER COLDER THAN THE IDEAL DGZ LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT GIVING MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN DUG IN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. THE CHILLY AIR AT 850MB WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THEY
WERE IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MUCH
DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST. WILL STILL SEE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH DIMINISHED RATE...FOR MORE
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER TO
THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE ON THE INFLECTION POINT
BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/EC ARE HINTING
AT A SHORTWAVE QUICKLY SLIDING THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL PROBABLY GIVE AN UPTICK IN LES FOR THE CWA WITH
ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PROVIDED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
MOST OF THE SITES /AND ESPECIALLY IWD AT MVFR CONDITIONS/ ARE IN THE
BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN THE INITIAL BAND OF SNOW AND THE MORE STEADY SNOW
NEARING FROM NE MN AND W LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL BE SLIDING IN OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOOK FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS W-E AT ALL
SITES...DOWN TO TO IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS...WITH VIS FALLING TO LIFR
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE WHILE THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NE MN AND W LAKE SUPERIOR SHIFTS OVER SAW BY
06Z...AND THE PREDOMINATELY S WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE NNW TONIGHT AT
CMX AND IWD. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO FAR E UPPER MI BY
18Z...WITH WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE NNW AT SAW IN THE
MORNING...BRINGING FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS TO MOST LOCATIONS
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY MON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N AND INCREASE
TO 30KTS AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH
PRES BUILDING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL
CONTINUEINTO WED. WITH THE INFLUX OF COLDER AIR AND STRONG
WINDS...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM MON NIGHT
INTO WED AS WELL. THE WINDS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL DIMINISH
LATER ON WED/THU AS THE HIGH PRES EDGES CLOSER TO THE WESTERN LAKES.
THERE MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FRI FOLLOWING
ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO
7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ MONDAY FOR MIZ002-009.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KF
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1213 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY...WITH A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1211 PM EST SUNDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTH AND A FEW FLURRIES. HAVE UPDATED TO CAPTURE LATEST
TRENDS WHICH SUPPORT NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES AND NORTH WINDS AT
4 TO 8 MPH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM MID/UPPER 20S NORTHERN SECTIONS
TO NEAR 40F AT VSF. ALL COVERED WELL IN CURRENT GRIDS.
FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO
CAPTURE LATEST SURFACE TRENDS. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
WEAK/SHALLOW BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WITH ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLY TERRAIN DRIVEN DOWN THE
VALLEYS WITH A FEW FLURRIES LIKELY ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH. GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND COOL AIR ADVECTION EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN
SECTIONS...WITH WARMEST VALUES NEAR VSF WITH SOME SUN. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S...ALL COVERED WELL IN CURRENT
FORECAST.
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AS THAT BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SOME LIGHT SNOW AND OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
AROUND 16Z. AFTER THAT EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP AND THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET. ADJUSTED POPS
AND WEATHER TO BLEND IN CURRENT OBS AND THE SAME FOR TEMPS AND
DEW POINTS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 352 AM EST SUNDAY...A RELATIVELY QUIET
DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP MONDAY. A SURFACE FRONT AND
SOME ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA AND THE BEST
MOISTURE WITH THAT WILL ALSO STAY TO OUR NORTH. FLURRIES AND OR
LIGHT SNOW CAN`T BE RULED OUT HOWEVER AS WE WILL SEE SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SO AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY AND WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS
AND STAYING IN THE MID 20S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT RIVER
VALLEYS. ALL IN ALL A VERY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTH
COUNTRY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SUNDAY...THE REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN TWO WEATHER
SYSTEMS ON MONDAY...WITH A DEEPENING OCEAN STORM MOVING NORTHEAST
OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA AND UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC ON MONDAY WITH FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODEL
AGAIN DEVELOP ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
TUESDAY...BUT AGAIN HEAD IT OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK (40N
70W). TEMPERATURES AGAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SUNDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING A STRONG SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR...WITH HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO AROUND 10 ABOVE. THE ARCTIC AIR
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. LOWS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW ZERO SATURDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR CIGS AND VIS TRENDING TOWARDS
POSSIBLE MVFR BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECT FOR KMSS/KSLK/KPBG/KBTV WHILE KMPV/KRUT REMAIN VFR. BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR AND LATEST RAP GUIDANCE I WENT AHEAD AND TEMPO`D
IN SOME LIGHT SNOW AT PBG/SLK/BTV FOR THE FRONT. THE OVERALL
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AND IFR IS NOT EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY UNDER 10 KTS AND WILL BACK AROUND TO
THE NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT DROPS THOUGH THE AREA .
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
200 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND MOVE AWAY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM SUNDAY...
SHORT FUSE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
JOHNSTON...WAYNE...WILSON...HARNETT...CUMBERLAND...SAMPSON
COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS REPORTED
FROM BURSTS OF HEAVIER SLEET...
MSAS SHOWS A ~1003MB SURFACE LOW EAST OF CHARLESTON SC THIS
MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO A 553DM UPPER LOW PIVOTING OVER THE
SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN. THE PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWEST OF THE LOW
EXTENDS THROUGH THE NC COASTAL PLAIN....WHERE TEMP PROFILES ARE
MARGINAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PTYPES...A SLIGHT WARM NOSE OF 1-2C AT
5K FT AND SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 33-35F RANGE. HOWEVER...IN THE PAST
HOUR OR SO THE RATES HAVE BEEN HIGH ENOUGH FOR MELTING AND
WETBULBING TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF PREDOMINATELY SLEET IN
WILSON....WAYNE...JOHNSTON...AND NORTHERN SAMPSON COUNTIES. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE COUNTIES GIVEN
NUMEROUS TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS. DUAL POL CC SUGGESTS LIGHT TO MODERATE
SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR WEST AS RALEIGH AND SANFORD AS WELL.
RAP AND HRRR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE SMALL WARM NOSE CONTINUING TO COOL
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...SO ITS ENTIRELY POSSIBLY THAT PERIODS OF
MODERATE SLEET MAY PRODUCE A HALF INCH OF SO SLEET....WITH ANOTHER
QUARTER INCH OF QPF STILL POSSIBLE AS THE PRECIP BAND PIVOTS OVER
THE AREA.
A DOWNWARD TEND IN PRECIP...ALBEIT LIKELY VERY SLOW...IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DEEPENS EAST OF CAPE FEAR AND
THEN FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE EAST AND FURTHER OFFSHORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 321 AM SUNDAY...
REGARDLESS OF HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST A COASTAL LOW WOBBLES AS IT
BOMBS OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...THE
RESULTANT DEEP CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND
AWAY FROM THE NC COAST TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A
"KICKER" VORTEX AND ACCOMPANYING ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN SHORT
WAVELENGTH FLOW ALOFT...FORECAST TO PIVOT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO
THE TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS THROUGH EARLY MON. CLEARING SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
AN AREA OF BROAD BUT STRONG 100-150 METER HEIGHT FALLS AND
COOLING/FGEN ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT AND POCKET OF
STEEP (7.5 C/KM) 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES...WILL SUPPORT THE
EASTWARD MAINTENANCE OF A BAND OF SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL NC DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A "WARMING" DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST
FLOW...INCLUDING A SSW SURFACE BREEZE AND TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S...WILL ENSURE THIS ACTIVITY
WILL FALL AS RAIN.
MONDAY NIGHT: STRONG CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONTAL
PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MILLER-B SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS MOVING
OFF THE NC/VA COAST MONDAY EVENING....MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF
TRANSITION/CHANGE-OVER TO A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES BEFORE PRECIP ENDS
ACROSS THE AREA. NO ACCUMULATIONS/IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS
TUESDAY MORNING IN THE MID 20S NORTHWEST PIEDMONT TO LOWER 30S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 1M SUNDAY...
MOISTURE WILL BE SCARCE...BUT PERIODS OF STRONG DCVA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH STOUT VORT LOBES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE ANOMALOUS
DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE(H5 ANOMALIES 2 TO 4 SD BELOW
NORMAL)ACROSS THE EASTERN US WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES
ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.
THE BIG WEATHER STORY HERE WILL BE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH H8 TEMPS IN THE -12 TO -15C RANGE AND LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES BOTTOMING OUT TO AROUND 1240M WEDNESDAY NIGHT...60 TO 70
METERS BELOW NORMAL! HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON FRIDAY AS THE COLD UPPER
TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...
THIS WARMING TREND WILL NOT LAST LONG AS AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERN US TROUGH WILL BRING A
REINFORCEMENT OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY. SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FROZEN PRECIP AS THE UPPER WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.
HOWEVER SINCE MOISTURE IS TYPICALLY LIMITED IN NW FLOW EVENTS...WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SUNDAY...
WITH A A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OFF THE S COAST...PRECIP CONTINUES
TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE NC COASTAL PLAIN. RAIN HAS BEEN MIXING
WITH OR COMPLETELY CHANGING TO SLEET AND SNOW ALONG AN AXIS FROM
KFAY TO KRWI. NEAR TERM MODELS SHOW THIS CONTINUING THROUGH 22Z OR
SO BEFORE PRECIP ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. CEILINGS HAVE ACTUALLY REMAINED ABOVE 2000 FT
FOR THE MOST PART...AND VFR CONDITIONS HAVE EVEN BEEN PREDOMINATE AT
MANY SITES. OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIP...EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A FEW WIND GUSTS TO
25 KT OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN AND PASS BY THE NC COAST. SOME MVFR VSBYS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
FROM KFAY TOP KRWI LATE TONIGHT WHERE IT HAS BEEN PRECIPITATION ALL
DAY...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE DOESN`T SHOW MUCH REPORT AND CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AT THIS POINT.
A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
DISTURBANCE DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KT AND
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OUTLOOK...AFTER THE DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY PASSES BY...THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS EACH DAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ042-
043-077-078-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT/SMITH
SHORT TERM...BADGETT/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
100 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND MOVE AWAY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM SUNDAY...
...SHORT FUSE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
JOHNSTON...WAYNE...WILSON...HARNETT...CUMBERLAND...SAMPSON
COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS REPORTED
FROM BURSTS OF HEAVIER SLEET...
MSAS SHOWS A ~1003MB SURFACE LOW EAST OF CHARLESTON SC THIS
MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO A 553DM UPPER LOW PIVOTING OVER THE
SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN. THE PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWEST OF THE LOW
EXTENDS THROUGH THE NC COASTAL PLAIN....WHERE TEMP PROFILES ARE
MARGINAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PTYPES...A SLIGHT WARM NOSE OF 1-2C AT
5K FT AND SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 33-35F RANGE. HOWEVER...IN THE PAST
HOUR OR SO THE RATES HAVE BEEN HIGH ENOUGH FOR MELTING AND
WETBULBING TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF PREDOMINATELY SLEET IN
WILSON....WAYNE...JOHNSTON...AND NORTHERN SAMPSON COUNTIES. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE COUNTIES GIVEN
NUMEROUS TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS. DUAL POL CC SUGGESTS LIGHT TO MODERATE
SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR WEST AS RALEIGH AND SANFORD AS WELL.
RAP AND HRRR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE SMALL WARM NOSE CONTINUING TO COOL
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...SO ITS ENTIRELY POSSIBLY THAT PERIODS OF
MODERATE SLEET MAY PRODUCE A HALF INCH OF SO SLEET....WITH ANOTHER
QUARTER INCH OF QPF STILL POSSIBLE AS THE PRECIP BAND PIVOTS OVER
THE AREA.
A DOWNWARD TEND IN PRECIP...ALBEIT LIKELY VERY SLOW...IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DEEPENS EAST OF CAPE FEAR AND
THEN FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE EAST AND FURTHER OFFSHORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 321 AM SUNDAY...
REGARDLESS OF HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST A COASTAL LOW WOBBLES AS IT
BOMBS OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...THE
RESULTANT DEEP CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND
AWAY FROM THE NC COAST TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A
"KICKER" VORTEX AND ACCOMPANYING ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN SHORT
WAVELENGTH FLOW ALOFT...FORECAST TO PIVOT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO
THE TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS THROUGH EARLY MON. CLEARING SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
AN AREA OF BROAD BUT STRONG 100-150 METER HEIGHT FALLS AND
COOLING/FGEN ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT AND POCKET OF
STEEP (7.5 C/KM) 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES...WILL SUPPORT THE
EASTWARD MAINTENANCE OF A BAND OF SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL NC DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A "WARMING" DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST
FLOW...INCLUDING A SSW SURFACE BREEZE AND TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S...WILL ENSURE THIS ACTIVITY
WILL FALL AS RAIN.
MONDAY NIGHT: STRONG CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONTAL
PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MILLER-B SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS MOVING
OFF THE NC/VA COAST MONDAY EVENING....MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF
TRANSITION/CHANGE-OVER TO A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES BEFORE PRECIP ENDS
ACROSS THE AREA. NO ACCUMULATIONS/IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS
TUESDAY MORNING IN THE MID 20S NORTHWEST PIEDMONT TO LOWER 30S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 335 1M SUNDAY...
MOISTURE WILL BE SCARCE...BUT PERIODS OF STRONG DCVA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH STOUT VORT LOBES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE ANOMALOUS
DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE(H5 ANOMALIES 2 TO 4 SD BELOW
NORMAL)ACROSS THE EASTERN US WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES
ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.
THE BIG WEATHER STORY HERE WILL BE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH H8 TEMPS IN THE -12 TO -15C RANGE AND LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES BOTTOMING OUT TO AROUND 1240M WEDNESDAY NIGHT...60 TO 70
METERS BELOW NORMAL! HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON FRIDAY AS THE COLD UPPER
TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...
THIS WARMING TREND WILL NOT LAST LONG AS AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERN US TROUGH WILL BRING A
REINFORCEMENT OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY. SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FROZEN PRECIP AS THE UPPER WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.
HOWEVER SINCE MOISTURE IS TYPICALLY LIMITED IN NW FLOW EVENTS...WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SUNDAY...
WITH A A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OFF THE S COAST...PRECIP CONTINUES
TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE NC COASTAL PLAIN. RAIN HAS BEEN MIXING
WITH OR COMPLETELY CHANGING TO SLEET AND SNOW ALONG AN AXIS FROM
KFAY TO KRWI. NEAR TERM MODELS SHOW THIS CONTINUING THROUGH 22Z OR
SO BEFORE PRECIP ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. CEILINGS HAVE ACTUALLY REMAINED ABOVE 2000 FT
FOR THE MOST PART...AND VFR CONDITIONS HAVE EVEN BEEN PREDOMINATE AT
MANY SITES. OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIP...EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A FEW WIND GUSTS TO
25 KT OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN AND PASS BY THE NC COAST. SOME MVFR VSBYS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
FROM KFAY TOP KRWI LATE TONIGHT WHERE IT HAS BEEN PRECIPITATION ALL
DAY...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE DOESN`T SHOW MUCH REPORT AND CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AT THIS POINT.
A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
DISTURBANCE DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KT AND
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OUTLOOK...AFTER THE DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY PASSES BY...THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS EACH DAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ042-043-077-078-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT/SMITH
SHORT TERM...BADGETT/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
327 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ROTATING THROUGH
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH TRAILING SHORTWAVE SLIDING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS
INDICATING AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS DRIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
MID AND LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WITH THIS WAVE. WOULD EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO SLIDE OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AS
THE SHORTWAVE DRIFTS OFF INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA/SOUTHERN IOWA BY
EVENING. STILL SEEING SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THESE SLIDE INTO
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA DURING THE EVENING...THOUGH BEING
MAINLY INSTABILITY DRIVEN MAY BECOME LESS NUMEROUS BY MID EVENING.
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY HANDLED TODAYS SYSTEM VERY
POORLY...OVERESTIMATING QPF AMOUNTS AND MISPLACING PRECIPITATION TOO
FAR TO THE EAST. CURRENT EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AND RAP HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE ON CURRENT TRENDS SO FOLLOWED THEM MORE CLOSELY FOR THE
FORECAST INTO TONIGHT. WHAT HAS VERIFIED BETTER TODAY HAS BEEN THE
WINDS...WITH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET. EVEN
SO...VISIBILITIES HAVE REMAINED JUST EITHER SIDE OF 2 MILES EVEN
WHEN SNOW IS OCCURRING AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABOVE FREEZING AND
MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS SETTLED AND BECOME WET...PREVENTING ANY LOFTING
OF THE SNOW. AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...MODELS...IF THEY
CAN BE BELIEVED...STILL HINTING AT SOME DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW IN
OUR EAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER MINNESOTA ROTATES SOUTHWARD. THE QUESTION BECOMES WILL THIS
BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO AREAS IN THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNING. BASED ON TODAYS TRENDS WOULD THINK THAT IT
IS ON THE LOW END OF PROBABILITY...BUT AFTER COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES ELECTED TO LEAVE THE HEADLINE IN PLACE FOR
NOW...THOUGH DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE WARNING. DEPENDENT ON THE
TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING...FUTURE SHIFT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE
HEADLINE AS NEEDED. IN ANY EVENT...ANY SNOWFALL LOOKS TO REMAIN VERY
LIGHT...AT GENERALLY AROUND A HALF AN INCH OR LESS.
OTHERWISE...THE STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY...BEFORE TAPERING DOWNWARD FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
ANY VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST IN OUR FAR EAST THROUGH MID
DAY...THEN COME TO AND END BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
ON MONDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS FAR
EAST TO LOWER 30S FAR WEST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
AGAIN TODAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN RUNNING
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FAIRLY PRONOUNCED
SINE WAVE ACROSS THE CONUS...BRINGING COLD WEATHER TO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS...AND WARM WEATHER TO THE WESTERN HALF. WE WILL
BE STUCK IN-BETWEEN THESE TWO AIRMASS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
WEAK IMPULSES OF WARMER AIR TRYING TO MOVE EAST LEADING TO LIGHT
SNOW CHANCES. AGAIN...GIVEN THE SUBTLE NATURE OF THESE
WAVE...MODELS HAVING A HARD TIME FIGURING OUT WHEN THE BEST FOCUS
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND. CONSIDERABLE OSCILLATIONS IN
ECMWF/GFS GUIDANCE CONTINUES...AND AT THIS POINT...CAN ONLY SEE
HAVING SLIGHT TO LOW END CHC POPS. OF MORE CERTAINTY IS THAT NO
MAJOR SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEMS ARE ON THE HORIZON THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL
MINNESOTA MAY BE IN THE TEENS...WHILE READINGS IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA COULD CLIMB INTO THE 30S EACH DAY. TODAYS GUIDANCE HAS
NUDGED COLDER AIR A BIT FURTHER WESTWARD...SO AS A RESULT
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO TRENDED A COUPLE DEGREES COLDER FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...AND
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AND PERSIST INTO LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL NOT BE CONTINUOUS HOWEVER...BEING SCATTERED IN
NATURE...AND THERE WILL BE LOCALIZED VARIATION IN VISIBILITIES
THROUGH THE PERIOD DEPENDENT ON WHEN SNOW IS FALLING.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY STRONG...CONTRIBUTING
TO BLOWING SNOW...MORE SO WHEN SNOW IS ACTUALLY OCCURRING.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR SDZ038-039-052>056-
058>062-064>071.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR SDZ040.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ050-057-063.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ098.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-097.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
MNZ081-089-090.
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR IAZ001-012-020-031.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
IAZ002-003-013-014-021-022-032.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR NEZ013-014.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...JM