Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 02/06/16

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

214 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

...SOME LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT...

MAIN WX FOCUS FOR THE NEXT 24 H WILL BE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH CO TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SRN UT AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME LIGHT
SN SHOWERS IN ERN UT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. SNOW AMTS OUT
WEST HAVE BEEN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS IN
LIQUID...BUT WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED A BIT AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND SOME LEE SIDE COLUMN STRETCHING OCCURS. PV
ANALYSIS AND MODEL FORECASTS SHOW BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP
OCCURRING IN THE 03Z TO 09Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
ERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. FARTHER EAST...SN PROBABILITIES LOOK
CONSIDERABLY LESS. THE LATEST HRRR IS CATCHING ON TO THIS POTENTIAL
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND IS SHOWING A PRETTY GOOD BAND OF
PRECIP DEVELOPING OVER WRN PUEBLO COUNTY AROUND 09Z. HAVE ALREADY
INCREASED POPS OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR FOR THIS EVE...BUT IF TRENDS
CONTINUE MAY HAVE TO INCREASE POPS SOME MORE FOR THIS AREA. SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE REGARDLESS...STILL LOOKING AT
AROUND 1-3 INCHES FOR THE ERN MTS AND GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH FOR
THE PLAINS. THE LATEST HRRR INDICATING MORE LIKE 2-3 INCHES...BUT
FOR NOW WILL STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL
KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT... SO DESPITE CONTINUED COLD
AIR ALOFT...SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES HIGHER
THAN THEY WERE FOR LAST NIGHT.

TOMORROW...WILL SEE CLEARING FROM NW TO SE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
ONWARD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY MID DAY. CONTINUED COLD AIR ALOFT
AND NRLY FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL HOLD DAYTIME HIGHS ON THE COLD
SIDE OF AVERAGE. WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW BELOW GUIDANCE AS MOS
VALUES LOOK A BIT TOO WARM FOR KPUB AND ESPECIALLY KCOS...WHERE
RESIDUAL SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD DOWN THE HIGHS. SHOULD SEE
MAINLY 30S TOMORROW ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS...AND 20S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE
WEST...AND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS IT
SHOULD BE A PLEASANT END TO THE WEEK DESPITE THE COOLER THAN

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

FRI NIGHT...GENERALLY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WL BE OVR THE
FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY STILL BE BELOW
AVERAGE. ON SATURDAY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE STATE BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEATHER WL STILL
BE DRY. TEMPS ALOFT WL WARM ON SAT AND MOST LOCATIONS WL SEE WARMER
HIGH TEMPS. MUCH OF THE SERN PLAINS SHOULD SEE HIGHS THAT ARE NEAR
OR A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE...ALTHOUGH AREAS WITH LINGER SNOW COVER
MAY BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE. THE HIGH VALLEYS WL ALSO LIKELY BE A
LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE.

SAT NIGHT AN UPR TROF WL BE MOVING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN
PLAINS STATES...SENDING A FRONT INTO SERN CO. AT THIS TIME...THE
FORECAST MODELS KEEP THE WEATHER DRY ACRS THE FORECAST AREA SAT
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OVR THE CENTRAL
MTNS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...TEMPS OVR THE SERN PLAINS ON SUN
SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER.

AS THE UPR TROF OVR THE PLAINS STATES MOVES EASTWARD...AN UPR RIDGE
WL BE BUILDING OVR THE GREAT BASIN AND MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES BY
MONDAY...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THAT AREA THRU THE
COMING WEEK. THIS WL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER ACRS THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG WITH WARMER...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

STILL ON TARGET TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KCOS
AND KPUB LATER TONIGHT. TIMING LOOKS A BIT LATER AND SNOW MAY BE A
BIT MORE WIDESPREAD...SO MAY MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TAFS TO
REFLECT THIS. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF IFR ESPECIALLY AT KCOS DUE TO
SHSN. ACCUMS GENERALLY LOOK LIGHT...LESS THAN AN INCH BUT POSSIBLY
UP TO TWO INCHES IF A PERSISTENT BAND OF PRECIP SETS UP AS SOME
COMPUTER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. PRECIP SHOULD CLEAR BY 12Z AND SHOULD
SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AREA-WIDE BY 15Z OR SO. WILL STAY VFR WITH
LIGHT WINDS FOR THE BALANCE OF FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. ROSE

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...ROSE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

843 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE (OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
01Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS THIS EVENING. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
FORMS A STEEP LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES...BEFORE
DIVING QUICKLY BACK TO THE SOUTH INTO A SHARP PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE
TROUGH THROUGH THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. THE FLOW THEN
FINALLY RIDGES BACK UP INTO THE APPALACHIANS IN THE WAKE OF
STORMINESS EXITING THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. THE TROUGH THROUGH THE
MID-SECTION THE COUNTY WILL KEEP OUR FORECAST CHANGING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS IT APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE STATE. EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WE FIND A STRONG PIECE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PIVOTING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
CROSS THE NORTHERN GULF DURING SATURDAY AND ARRIVE OVER OUR HEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE STRONG
ENERGY PASSING OVER THE WARMER BAROCLINIC WATERS OF THE GULF
STREAM WILL PROMOTE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL THEN QUICKLY MIGRATE
TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE BECOMING QUITE
A LARGE AND POTENT OCEAN STORM DURING SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. MORE ON
SOME POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM TO OUR AREA SATURDAY BELOW...
BUT FIRST LETS LOOK AT THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

THE ATMOSPHERE SURE HAS DRIED OUT IN THE PAST 24 HOURS IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH THE CROSSED THE REGION LAST NIGHT. PW VALUES
LAST NIGHT WERE NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND NOW
ARE RUNNING NEAR RECORD LOWS. THE 00Z KTBW SOUNDING THIS EVENING
CAME IN WITH AN EXTREMELY LOW PW VALUE OF ONLY 0.15". THIS IS
PRETTY DRAMATIC GIVEN THAT THE 10TH PERCENTILE VALUE FOR THE DATE
IS AROUND 0.40". THIS IS A VERY DRY TROPOSPHERE UNDER ANY
CIRCUMSTANCES. VIEWING THE SOUNDING CONFIRMS THE PW NUMBERS WITH
VERY LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENT OF THE
COLUMN ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
PROFILE AND NO SYNOPTIC LIFT TO SPEAK OF...THAT OUR SKIES ARE
CLEAR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME CLOUDS DOWN OVER FAR
SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THESE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE BACK TO THE
NORTH WITH A GENERAL MOISTURE SURGE LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE FORECAST WILL BE RAIN-FREE FOR ALL ZONES
WITH SEASONABLE COOL TEMPS.

STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN GULF DURING
SATURDAY WITH HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLOUD
OVER AS LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMES MORE
DEFINED. GENERALLY SPEAKING...THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY LOOKS
DRY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SOUTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...THE MORE
ROBUST SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT/DEEP LAYER QG FORCING AND UPPER
DIFFLUENCE WILL BEGIN TO LINE UP OVER THE REGION. EVEN WITH SOME
FAIRLY HEALTHY DYNAMICS FOR LIFT...THE MOISTURE THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER WILL NOT BE ALL THAT FAVORABLE. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH THE
DYNAMICS MIGHT NORMALLY SUGGEST A HEALTHY RAINFALL EVENT...THIS
ONE IS LIKELY TO NOT LIVE UP TO ANYTHING MORE THAN A SCATTERING
OF AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
BEST COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS SHOULD EXIST SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR ZONES
LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. LATE IN THE DAY / EVENING...THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE JUST OFF THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST. AS THIS LOW WRAPS UP SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE THE
SHOWERS MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION WITH THE FLOW AROUND THE STORM
BRINGING DRIER AIR BACK DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON GUSTY WINDS.

BY SUNDAY THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING STORM WILL BE EXITING AWAY FROM
THE PENINSULA INTO THE ATLANTIC...WITH A DRY...COOL...AND BREEZY
DAY ON TAP TO END THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
THIS EVENING. WILL SEE A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE NIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
CIGS BETWEEN 3-5KFT BY DAWN...ESPECIALLY FOR KPGD/KFMY/FRSW. HAVE
GONE WITH PREVAILING MVFR 2-3KFT CIGS WITH SCT LIGHT SHOWERS FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOS RESTRICTIONS ARE LOWER BUT
SEEM OVERDONE FOR THE PATTERN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADJUST
WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

.MARINE...
RESIDUAL SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST OVER
THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BACK
ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IF ANY WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. WINDS AGAIN WILL LIKELY INCREASE
ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS LATE MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 47 64 46 58 / 10 30 30 10
FMY 52 72 51 61 / 10 40 50 10
GIF 49 68 45 59 / 10 40 50 10
SRQ 49 65 50 58 / 10 40 30 10
BKV 43 63 41 58 / 10 30 40 10
SPG 50 63 49 57 / 10 30 30 10

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS
FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO
60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA
DECISION SUPPORT...RUDE
UPPER AIR/DATA QUALITY CONTROL...DAVIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

245 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...COOLER/UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN TURNING EVEN COOLER
NEXT WEEK...

CURRENT...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST OVER NORTH
FLORIDA...JUST ENTERING MARION COUNTY/OCALA AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES RECORDED PRIMARILY
OFF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF TAMPA. MAINLY NORTH OF A
JACKSONVILLE CEDAR KEY LINE FOR NOW. ALL ESTIMATES OF FRONT`S
FORWARD SPEED HAVE BEEN A SLOW EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 10 MPH.

THIS AFTERNOON...TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOL ESTIMATES ARRIVAL TIME OF THE
RAIN SHIELD AROUND AROUND 3-4 PM THE LEESBURG AREA AND AROUND 6 PM
(RUSH HOUR) FOR THE ORLANDO METRO AREA. REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
THE HRRR AND THE LOCAL WRF MODELS. RAIN SPREADS SLOWLY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TONIGHT...SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING. THE VARIOUS
SHORT TERM MODELS...HRRR/LOCAL WRF/GFS20...HAVE THE RAIN AND THE
500MB TROUGH EXITING THE SOUTHERN AREA BY 7 AM FRI MORNING. INITIAL
SHOT OF COOL AIR ADVECTION DROPS LOWS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 4/ORLANDO
DOWN TO THE LOW AND MID 40S. WHERE THE FRONT HAS YET TO MOVE
THROUGH...ORLANDO SOUTH...LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BUILDS OVER FLORIDA.
EXPECTING WIND AROUND 15 MPH AND GUSTY. HIGHS UPPER 50S ORLANDO
NORTH AND LOW 60S TO THE SOUTH.

FRI NIGHT...SFC HIGH WILL ELONGATE FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TWD THE
CAROLINAS WITH LOW LVL NNE WINDS VEERING TO THE NE/ENE OVER THE ATLC
WITH A TROUGH SETTING UP NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SUPPORT RETURN OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ONSHORE IN THE FORM OF
MARINE STRATOCU WITH ISOLATED LOW TOPPED SHOWERS MOVING IN OFF THE
ATLC AND SOME MAKING IT INLAND ACROSS THE INTERIOR. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LWR-MID 40S INTERIOR TO LWR-MID 50S S CSTL SECTIONS.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...NEXT ADVANCING MID LVL S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE
NRN GULF COAST AND ACROSS FL DURING THE NIGHT. THIS WILL INDUCE SFC
CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT BUT SHOULD SEE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVE
UP FROM S FL SAT AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. WILL CONTINUE A
BLEND OF GUID POPS WHICH FAVORS LOW COVERAGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
SAT WITH HIGHER COVERAGE ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST SAT EVENING
BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE BY THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE LWR 60S FAR NRN SECTIONS TO LWR 70S FOR MARTIN/ST LUCIE
COUNTIES. NW FLOW WILL INCREASE SAT NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE AND EXPECT QUICK END TO SHOWER CHANCES ONCE THE LOW PULLS
AWAY LATE SAT NIGHT. LOWS IN THE 40S EXPECTED...EXCEPT LWR 50S FOR
THE SRN TREASURE COAST.

SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WINDY
NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST IN THE MORNING AND BREEZY IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AROUND 60 NORTH TO THE MID
60S SRN AREAS.

MON-THU...12Z MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. EXPANSIVE MID-UPPER LVL TROUGH ACROSS THE GRT
LAKES MONDAY WILL SHIFT TWD THE NE QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY INTO MID
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A (MAINLY) DRY REINFORCING FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS INTO MID WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES FROM THE WRN GULF WED TWD FL ON THU. HIGHS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S...THOUGH COOLER ACROSS THE NORTH TUE ONLY
INTO THE UPPER 50S. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...THOUGH WE COULD
SEE MORE WIDESPREAD MID-UPPER 30S WED NIGHT AS SFC HIGH BUILDS TWD FL
LATE WITH EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED WITH A DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE.

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS/TEMPO MVFR CIGS AT THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
HAVE WORKED THEIR WAY TO KSFB/SANFORD AND KTTS/SPACE CENTER AND
NORTH. RAIN AT OCALA/KOCF AND SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY TO KLEE. LOOKS
LIKE A WET AVIATION RUSH FROM 21Z TO 02Z AS THE RAIN WORKS ITS WAY
OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. PREVAILING MVFR CIGS AFTER 02Z.
AND THE ORLANDO AREA AIRPORTS AROUND 5/22Z.

.MARINE...
CURRENT...SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS BUOY009 AND
BEYOND AND AROUND 15 KNOTS AT SEBASTIAN INLET AND TRIDENT PIER. SEAS
4 TO 5 FEET.

TONIGHT-SAT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS SHIFT TO
THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST 20 KNOTS OR MORE NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY DOWN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS 4
TO 6 FEET AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT
AS THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH COUNTERING THE GULF
STREAM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DOWN TO SEBASTIAN INLET TIL LATE EVENING
THEN DOWN TO JUPITER INLET AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SAT GOOD CALL.

FRI NIGHT-SUNDAY...WINDS WILL VEER TO ONSHORE AND WEAKEN INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT AND
BRINING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GUSTY NW/N WINDS AND A RETURN
TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY. GUID POINTS TO A SOLID 25 KNOTS
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE WINDS DECREASE INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MON-TUE...ANOTHER REINFORCING MAINLY DRY FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING WESTERLY WINDS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...KEEPING SEAS HAZARDOUS OFFSHORE.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 42 57 46 63 / 80 10 20 40
MCO 47 60 45 67 / 70 10 20 40
MLB 49 64 50 69 / 60 10 20 30
VRB 53 64 53 71 / 60 10 20 30
LEE 40 61 42 63 / 80 10 10 30
SFB 44 58 45 65 / 80 10 20 30
ORL 45 61 46 66 / 80 10 20 30
FPR 55 65 52 72 / 50 10 20 30

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....VOLKMER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

940 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
...COOLER/UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN TURNING EVEN COOLER
NEXT WEEK...

.CURRENT...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT BEING ANALYZED OVER NORTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO AND NORTH FLORIDA. LARGE SWATH OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED
STORMS STRETCHES FROM APALACHICOLA...NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC.

.THIS AFTERNOON...LOCAL WRF/ARW6 AND HRRR SHORT TERM MODELS FORECAST
RAIN FINALLY ENTERING THE LAKE COUNTY AREA AROUND 3"" THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE THE 06Z RUN OF THE GFS20 WAS A LITTLE QUICKER AT
1"". THE RAIN SHOULD REACH THE METRO ORLANDO AREA LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.

THE ZONE UPDATE WILL LOOK AT ANY CHANGE TO WHEN THE RAIN SHIELD
FINALLY ENTERS THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA. THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST OK.

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS/MVFR CIGS AT THE FLORIDA WEST COAST HAVE
WORKED THEIR WAY TO KLEE/LEESBURG. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD EAST
TO THE ORLANDO AREA AIRPORTS LATE MORNING AND THE ATLANTIC COAST
AIRPORTS MID AFTERNOON. RAIN STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA JUST AT GAINESVILLE/KGNV. ETA AT KLEE
AROUND 3/20Z AND THE ORLANDO AREA AIRPORTS AROUND 5/22Z.

.MARINE...BUOYS RECORDING SOUTH WIND 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND 3 TO 4 FOOT
SEAS. WINDS REMAIN 15 TO 20 KNOTS FOR THE AFTERNOON THEN INCREASE TO
AROUND KNOTS WELL OFFSHORE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT`S ARRIVAL EARLY
EVENING. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OFFSHORE STILL A GOOD CALL FOR
THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS AFD ISSUED 312 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

CURRENT...CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AGAIN FOR ONE MORE MORNING. TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND L70S WITH DEWPOINT VALUES WELL INTO THE 60S
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT OVER NORTH FLORIDA.
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. WE MAY SEE SOME SPOTTY PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY AROUND
ANY SMOLDERING PRESCRIBED BURNS...BUT AREAS OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
MAY BE THE BIGGER THREAT EARLY IN THE PERIOD...SHOULD THEY DEVELOP.

TODAY-TONIGHT...DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WILL WEAKEN
AND GET SQUEEZED EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH THE APPROACH OF
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH
WILL PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE I-4 CORRIDOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVER THE REMAINDER OF OUR COVERAGE WARNING AREA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WITH SSE-
SSW SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS. WHILE WE MAY SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS DO NOT
FEEL A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS WARRANTED. WINDS WILL BECOME NWRLY
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING WITH BREEZY/GUSTY
CONDITIONS FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE.

INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE LIMITED ONCE AGAIN FOR THE LATEST WEATHER
SYSTEM...THOUGH WILL STILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN CLOSER TO PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES TOWARD/INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA. WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION
DURING THE DAY BUT THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF THE
AREA LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING. AS WITH PREVIOUS WEATHER
SYSTEMS THIS SEASON WE WILL HAVE IMPRESSIVE JET STREAM WIND FIELDS
WITH 80-100 KT WINDS ALOFT JUST TO THE NORTH AND THE FAVORABLE RIGHT-
REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET NEAR THE AREA PROMOTING DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL POOL TOWARD 2 INCHES AHEAD AND
ALONG THE FRONT.

OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COVERAGE WARNING AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY
FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF SHOWER. THE I-4
CORRIDOR WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT NEARS. GREATEST CHANCES SOUTH OF I-
4 SLOWLY INCREASE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN
THREATS FROM SHOWER/ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. A FEW CELLS COULD
BECOME LOCALLY STRONG BUT IT APPEARS ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA. SHOWER CHANCES WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH.

RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY ARE 87 FOR DAB, MCO AND VRB WITH MLB COMING
IN AT 86 FOR A HIGH MAX. FEEL THAT WE WILL NOT REACH THESE VALUES
THOUGH MLB MAY COME THE CLOSEST. CLOUD THICKNESS AND ONSET OF ANY
PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO PLAY A ROLE IN HOW WARM WE GET TODAY. STILL
UNSEASONABLY WARM HIGHS IN THE M-U70S NORTH OF I-4 WITH U70S/L80S
ALL IN PLAY FURTHER SOUTHWARD. MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERS DOWN
THE PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE L-M40S NORTH
OF I-4...U40S/L50S ACROSS THE REST OF THE INTERIOR. AREAS FROM MLB
TO SUA ALONG THE COAST WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 54 TO 60 DEGREES FOR
MINS.

FRI-SAT...POST FRONTAL COOLING WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AS ONSHORE
WINDS DEVELOP BY FRI AFTERNOON...AT ANY RATE IT WILL BE A COOL AND
BLUSTERY DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY MAKING IT TO THE U50 TO L60S WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MARINE SOURCE STRATO CU MOVING WELL INLAND AS
WINDS VEER INCREASINGLY ONSHORE. AN EAST COAST TROUGH WL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT FRI AS A RESULT OF DRAINAGE FLOW DOWN PENINSULA
COMBINING WITH MORE DIRECT ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE MARINE AREA.
PRESENCE OF THIS CONVERGENT AREA WL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST AND TO SOME DEGREE INLAND WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS...ESP ALONG THE COAST. SATURDAY A RATHER
POTENT SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS THE SE STATES WL RAPIDLY
ACCENTUATE THE EC TROUGH WITH RAPID SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT MOSTLY
EAST OF THE STATE OVER THE MARINE AREA. THE GFS IS CURRENTLY A
LITTLE MORE SEWARD THAN THE EC AND THE CURRENT FORECAST BLENDS
THE TWO SOLNS WITH A MENTIONABLE RAIN CHC INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHC IS CURRENTLY DEPICTED SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE
AREA.

NEXT WEEK...AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE END TO THE WEEK CONDITIONS NEXT
WEEK BEGIN UNDER INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AND COOL
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN
THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. REINFORCEMENT OF CONTINENTAL AIR
AROUND WED WILL BRING 30S TO A LARGE PART OF THE AREA BOTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG PROSPECTS LOOK LOW THIS MORNING WITH SOME SPOTTY LOW
STRATUS POSSIBLE AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR TAFS. COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA LATE TODAY AND PRESS THROUGH THE
COVERAGE WARNING AREA DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. MORNING SSE/S
WINDS WILL VEER TO SSW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND WILL BECOME NEAR
BREEZY/GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PGRAD TIGHTENS. MAINLY
SHOWERY PCPN CHANCES DEVELOPING ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR LATER THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING CHANCES FURTHER SOUTHWARD
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSRA THOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. MVFR IN SHRA`S WITH SOME IFR CIGS NEAR
THE FRONT LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATE TONIGHT
FOR CIGS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS ECFL.

.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AND FURTHER SOUTHWARD
DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. GUSTY SSE/S WINDS WILL PROMPT
CONTINUANCE OF CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS OVER THE OPEN ATLC
TODAY...REMAINING 15KTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS NEARER THE
COAST. WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME NWRLY BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS...OCNLY TO GALE FORCE. WILL INITIATE AN SCA
NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET FOR 00Z/7PM AND 03Z/10PM FOR MARINE LEGS
FURTHER SOUTH. WILL ALLOW FUTURE FORECAST SHIFTS TO MONITOR AND
UPGRADE TO A GALE WATCH/WARNING FOR LATER TONIGHT ACROSS A PORTION
OF THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD THE NEED ARISE. SEAS GENERALLY 3-4 FT
NEAR SHORE AND 4-5 FT OFFSHORE TODAY. TONIGHT THRU 12Z FRI
MORNING...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD (NORTH TO SOUTH) 7-10 FT
OFFSHORE NORTH OF ST. LUCIE AND 5-8 FT NEAR SHORE NORTH OF THE CAPE.

AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING WITH THIS THREAT INCREASING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND MAINLY FOR POINTS
FURTHER SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STORM THREAT WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FILLS IN SOUTHEASTWARD.
FAST OFFSHORE-MOVING CELLS WITH MAIN THREATS LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KTS
ALL IN PLAY FOR LATER TODAY/EVENING.

FRI-SUN...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS OVER ALL THE WATERS FRI AND FRI
NIGHT WITH STRONG POST FRONTAL WINDS. A TEMPORARY LULL IN GRADIENT
WINDS DURING SAT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT IN SEA
STATE...HOWEVER RAPID GENESIS OF A LOW OFF THE FL EAST COAST TO
BAHAMAS EARLY SUNDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE WINDS OVER THE
MARINE AREA DURING SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EWD FROM THE
GULF WL IMPROVE WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 78 43 58 48 / 100 90 10 30
MCO 82 50 59 46 / 80 80 10 20
MLB 83 54 62 53 / 40 70 10 20
VRB 84 56 61 56 / 30 60 10 20
LEE 76 44 59 44 / 100 90 0 10
SFB 80 47 58 46 / 90 80 10 20
ORL 80 48 59 51 / 80 80 10 20
FPR 84 56 62 55 / 20 60 10 20

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....VOLKMER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

1247 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1034 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN A TAD DELAYED IN PUSHING EAST ACROSS
LEXINGTON AND INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. STILL LOOKING FOR THIS LOW
STRATUS TO SET IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION HELPS DROP
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW-MID 30S BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. STILL
POSSIBLE TO SEE A SPRINKLE TONIGHT MIXED WITH A FLURRY OR TWO
LATER ON AS TEMPERATURES DROP...BUT NOTHING TO CAUSE ANY CONCERN
REGARDING MEASURABLE AMOUNTS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

CLOUDS QUICKLY CLEARED OUT BEHIND THE FRONT EARLIER TODAY AS DRY
AIR FILTERED INTO THE REGION. THANKS TO PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...HIGHS ARE TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL TAKE A TUMBLE TO NEAR FREEZING OR JUST
BELOW...EVEN WITH LLVL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE
LLVL MOISTURE WILL GET TRAPPED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT
AND MORNING PERIOD BEFORE CLEARING OUT SOMETIME IN THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST...USHERING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWING TOMORROW WITH HIGHS
ONLY NIPPING AT THE 40 DEGREE MARK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS
BUILDING INTO THE COMMONWEALTH THURSDAY EVENING MAKING FOR A
CHILLY NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 20 DEGREES. A SUNNY
AND SEASONABLE DAY IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTING
TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS FROM THE MS VALLEY. ALSO TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND NORTH INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH A COUPLE OF UNPHASED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BEGIN THE PERIOD EXTENDING FROM THE OH VALLEY
SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST STATES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL WORK ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE SHOULD TRACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHEAST WHILE THE SOUTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL TAKE THE BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA TO START THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE
AT THE SFC. THE RESULT SHOULD BE DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. LOWS ON FRI NIGHT
SHOULD BE ON THE COLD SIDE IN THE VALLEYS...WITH THE COLDEST SPOTS
PROBABLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS WITH 20S ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE AXIS OF TROUGHING AT 500 MB
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND IT FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME THOUGH...THE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS SHOULD BEGIN TO AMPLIFY
WITH RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST AND TROUGHING BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK...THE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WITH THE RIDGING REMAINING IN
PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND A
TROUGH MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN CONUS. MODEL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL IN THE DETAILS OF TIMING
AND EXACTLY HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION. MODEL AGREEMENT IS
BETTER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THAT A SHORTWAVE SHOULD TRACK FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
CLOSE OFF BY THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH A SFC LOW ALSO TRACKING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. THIS SHOULD USHER IN THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AIRMASS THAT
WILL BRING A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THOUGH THE
MAGNITUDE BELOW NORMAL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. A MODEL COMPROMISE
SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO EXCEED THE FREEZING MARK IN
MANY LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY BEFORE STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE
UPPER 20S ON WEDNESDAY.

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED DURING THIS PERIOD
FROM SUNDAY EVENING INTO MIDWEEK...AS WEAK SHORTWAVES PASS AND
MODELS INDICATE SOME MOISTURE WITH THESE AS WELL. DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAVING AN UPSLOPE
COMPONENT FOR PORTIONS OF THIS PERIOD. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
FORM TIME TO TIME ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLY AND POTENTIAL HAS
CONTINUED TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

A LLVL STRATUS DECK IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS EASTERN
KY...WITH LOW END VFR TO HIGH END MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT ALL THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT. ENOUGH DRY AIR CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE
LOCKED IN NEAR THE SURFACE TO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT AT THIS
TIME...AS W/NW WINDS REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 5 KNOTS. CAA
PRODUCING GUSTS IN THE 15KT RANGE WILL FURTHER REDUCE ANY FOG
CONCERNS. HOWEVER...COULD SEE A SPRINKLE OR EVEN A SNOW FLURRY
LATER TONIGHT FALL FROM THIS STRATUS. EXPECT THESE VFR/MVFR
CEILINGS TO MIX OUT THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH SCT CLOUDS NEAR
3000FT COULD REMAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE NW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...DIMINISHING TO GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GUSEMAN
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JMW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1155 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EST Wed Feb 3 2016

Main forecast concerns in the short term are sprinkles/clouds this
evening and temperatures. Overall, relatively benign weather in the
short term.

Stratus deck upstream associated with the advancing upper trough
axis will swing through southern Indiana and central Kentucky late
this afternoon and into the evening hours. 12z ILX sounding and HRRR
soundings for the area this evening show this stratus to be about 50
to maybe 100 mb thick and with weak lift present this evening, there
could be a few sprinkles across southern Indiana and north central
Kentucky. HRRR simulated reflectivity has been consistent showing a
thin band over the area between 4 and 10p, so have maintained slight
chance of sprinkles in the forecast. Winds will remain gusty to near
20 to perhaps 25 mph at times through the evening as well with
temperatures falling into the mid/upper 30s.

Surface high pressure moves across the area Thursday and Thursday
night, setting up a cool but dry day. Plan on highs in the upper 30s
to around 40 degrees. We`ll have some morning stratus around but as
the high advances east, this should erode and push east giving way
to some sun by afternoon. Thursday night lows look to fall into the
mid 20s with mostly clear skies and lighter winds.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 250 PM EST Wed Feb 3 2016

The main forecast concern in the long term period is precipitation
chances and temperatures next week.

Friday through the weekend the region will be under the influence of
high pressure at the surface and zonal flow aloft. A couple weather
systems look to pass well south and north of the area, but southern
Indiana and central Kentucky will generally see seasonal
temperatures and dry conditions.

By late Sunday night into Monday, a surface low and anomalously deep
upper trough looks to swing through the Upper Midwest and Great
Lakes. This will spill colder air down into the area and chances for
precipitation. Depending on temperatures, rain may mix with or
changeover to snow Monday. As the upper trough hangs overhead and
more cold air arrives Monday night and Tuesday, temperatures would
be cold enough to support all snow. The GFS 850 mb temperatures are
considerably colder than the ECMWF and GEM 3.12z solutions. A model
consensus trended downward from the previous forecast, with highs
Tuesday and Wednesday in the mid 20s to low 30s and morning
temperatures in the teens. This may trend further down if the GFS
solutions end up verifying. Precipitation chances were brought up
into the 30 to 50 percent range Monday through Wednesday.

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1153 PM EST Wed Feb 3 2016

The main question for the TAFS overnight into the morning hours will
be how much ceilings will lower and when. Obs to the north show MVFR
ceiling continue to creep closer to SDF and LEX. These two sites are
expected to lower to MVFR overnight, though they should stay above
fuel alternate. BWG is more of a question mark as a break in the
clouds is actually headed towards the site at this time. However,
after a couple hour break, lower clouds may move back in. All sites
should improve to VFR by mid day and stay VFR into the evening.
Winds early this morning will remain out of the west to WNW and
could be a bit gusty occasionally. They should relax towards
sunrise.

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........ZT
Aviation..........EER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SHREVEPORT LA

923 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
CLOUD COVER IS DISSIPATING LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION AND WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...
TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING QUICKLY. IN FACT...WE ARE ALREADY AT FCST
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AS OF 03Z THIS
EVENING.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOWING ELEVATED RETURNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS
ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS...THIS PRECIPITATION IS HAVING A DIFFICULT
TIME MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES CLOSER TO
OUR REGION DURING THE NIGHT...THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL HAVE TO
SATURATE FROM THE TOP DOWN AND OUR 00Z SOUNDING THIS EVENING
SHOWED VERY DRY AIR IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. LATEST OOZ RUNS OF THE
NAM AND LATEST HRRR DATA SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP WILL BEGIN MOVING
INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT MORE SO IN THE 09Z-12Z
TIMEFRAME BUT SHOULD STAY JUST WEST OF PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS IS IMPORTANT AS ITS THESE
LOCATIONS THAT WILL LIKELY BE BELOW FREEZING DURING THIS FRAME.

FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RAPID FALL IN
TEMPS THIS EVENING. HAVE ALSO TRIMMED POPS BACK ACROSS THESE SAME
LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA THROUGH 12Z SAT.
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS IN THE 12Z-15Z TIMEFRAME
BUT DO NOT FEEL LIKE THIS WILL BE A BIG EVENT...OR EVEN MARGINAL
FOR THAT MATTER BEFORE TEMPS WARM QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY
MORNING.

ALL OTHER GRIDS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...UPDATED FORECAST OUT
SHORTLY...13.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE ARKLATEX...EXITING AREA OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH SKC
THIS EVENING. THEN INCREASING MID DECKS FROM THE WEST AND VFR LOW
CLOUD FM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM OVER SW OK
ATTM. OVERCAST DECKS BY DAYBREAK WITH VICINITY SHOWERS FOR KSHV
AND VFR -RA FOR TX TERMINALS AFTER DAYBREAK TOWARD LUNCH. OUR SFC
WINDS ARE SE 5-10KTS AND EXTEND UP FOR A FEW THOUSAND FEET BEFORE
VEERING AROUND TO S/SW/W INTO THE MIDLEVEL FLOW. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH SKC. /24/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 34 53 33 61 / 10 30 10 0
MLU 34 52 32 60 / 10 10 10 0
DEQ 28 53 29 59 / 10 20 0 0
TXK 35 52 32 59 / 10 20 10 0
ELD 29 52 31 59 / 10 10 10 0
TYR 36 53 34 63 / 40 40 10 0
GGG 35 53 32 62 / 30 40 10 0
LFK 35 56 32 63 / 30 40 10 0

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

24/13

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ST LOUIS MO

934 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE:
Issued at 933 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2016

Mid and high cloudiness is streaming over the area ahead of mid
level trough that is approaching the area from the northwest.
These clouds will limit temperatures from dropping somewhat, but
they have already dropped lower than forecast lows in a few areas
so went ahead a lowered them by a few degrees. There have been no
surface reports of rain or snow associated with radar returns over
central Missouri likely because low levels continue to be dry, so
will continue with a dry forecast through the rest of tonight.

Britt

.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 325 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2016

A pair of vort maxes will approach the region tonight, spreading
extensive mid/high cloudiness over the area. The northern vort max
is the weaker of the pair and eventually phases with the southern
disturbance, although there is some model disagreement regarding how
quickly this occurs. Latest runs of the RAP point to a quicker
phasing than shown by the local WRF or NAM, and the quicker timing
looks reasonable based on recent satellite imagery and PV analyses.
Quicker phasing means that the northern disturbance won`t produce
much lift over the CWA and therefore there is much less chance of
flurries or sprinkles given the already limited moisture. Overnight
lows should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday due to extensive
cloud cover and weak WAA at low levels behind a retreating surface
high pressure center.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM: (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 325 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2016

An upper level TROF will swing thru our region dry on Saturday,
with forcing not strong enough and a column not moist enough, as the
main storm center passes well to our south, and should produce
nothing more than clouds that will decrease as the day wears on.
Otherwise, SW winds left in its wake will result in an above average
temp day, with maxes from the mid 40s to mid 50s favored, or at or
above the higher MAV MOS.

A more direct hit from a decently strong upper level disturbance
will occur late Sunday and into Sunday night, but will still be
fighting a largely dry column. Have added low PoPs for most of our
region for light rain for Sunday afternoon, and areas south and east
of STL metro heading into Sunday evening.

This initial disturbance Sunday will also correspond to the leading
edge of a brief shot of Arctic air that will begin later Sunday
night and continue into Monday night, resulting in scattered snow
showers over much of the region. Accums will be hard to nail down
this far out and due to the nature of the pcpn, but could see spotty
accums up to an inch from this event. Needless to say, the leading
edge of the Arctic airmass will also be accompanied by strong gusty
northwest winds, clouds, and stagnant daytime temps on Monday as CAA
remains strong thru the day.

Models are less clear, but it appears a second clipper-like system
may drop down for the Tuesday night or Wednesday timeframe, but the
signal is not enough, especially for this type of system, to place
mentionable PoPs in the forecast just yet.

Otherwise, NW upper flow continues thru all of next week and will
leave the door open for additional cold air intrusions, one of which
is slated to drop down Thursday or Friday.

Overall a period of mainly below average temps separated briefly by
periods of above average temps, with little in the way of
precipitation.

TES

.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 546 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2016

Expect dry and VFR conditions through the TAF period. High
pressure will move away from the area early tomorrow causing winds
to pick up from the southwest during the day.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect dry and VFR conditions through the TAF
period.

Britt

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

558 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 325 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2016

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM: (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 325 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2016

Otherwise, NW upper flow continues thru all of next week and will
leave the door open for additional cold air intrusions, one of which
is slated to drop down Thursday or Friday.

Overall a period of mainly below average temps separated briefly by
periods of above average temps, with little in the way of
precipitation.

TES

.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 546 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2016

Expect dry and VFR conditions through the TAF period. High
pressure will move away from the area early tomorrow causing winds
to pick up from the southwest during the day.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect dry and VFR conditions through the TAF
period.

Britt

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

501 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

OVERVIEW...THERE ARE A FEW FORECAST CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. FOG IS NOT LIKELY...BUT CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT
ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...A VERY LIGHT SNOW EVENT IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING
PRIMARILY BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON AND FOCUSED ON NEBRASKA ZONES.
HOWEVER...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LOW IF WE EVEN GET
ANYTHING...GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH IN MOST PLACES.

FOG POTENTIAL...THERE HAS BEEN A LOW STRATUS DECK THIS AFTERNOON
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN IOWA. THE HRRR HAS BEEN FORECASTING
FOG FORMATION THIS EVENING OVER THE THICK SNOW COVER AND NEAR THE
EDGE OF THIS STRATUS DECK ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. THE SREF
FOG POTENTIAL IS ALSO OVER 50 PERCENT IN SOME OF THIS AREA. IN
ADDITION...THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUPPORTING FOG.
HOWEVER...THE HRRR HAS BEEN BACKING OFF OF THE FOG ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST AND HAS BEEN PULLING THE FOG FURTHER BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA AND CLOSER TO THE STRATUS
DECK...WHICH MAKES SENSE. THE SREF MAY BE OVERDOING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GIVEN HOW SNOW COVER IS HANDLED IN THE MODELS. IN
ADDITION...MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT LIMITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ALSO LIMITING FOG POTENTIAL.
THEREFORE...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE FOG IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS POINT IN TIME. IF WE DO SEE FOG...IT WILL LIKELY
BE NORTHEAST OF THE TRI-CITIES.

SNOW POTENTIAL...A WEAK FAST MOVING OPEN SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
MOST FORECAST MODELS GENERATE A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF MOISTURE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE THAT WOULD AMOUNT TO TRACE
AMOUNTS OF SNOW OR LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
PRETTY CLEARLY SHOW THAT THE TEMPERATURE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
ACROSS OUR CWA THAT THE ONLY PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW.
HOWEVER...OVERALL LIFT IS WEAK AS NOTED BY FRONTOGENESIS AND
ISENTROPIC SURFACES. THE ONLY THING REALLY GOING FOR THIS WEAK
LITTLE SYSTEM IS A FAIRLY DEEP SATURATED ZONE WITHIN THE DENDRITIC
LAYER THAT COULD LEAD TO A LITTLE LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW. GIVEN THE
LACK OF LIFT WILL JUST CALL FOR LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW
AND MOST AREAS MAY SEE A TRACE OR LESS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
WEAK AND THUS NOT MUCH WIND IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

ALOFT: NW FLOW WAS DEVELOPING AND WILL DOMINATE THESE PERIODS.
EXCITATION OF THE LONGWAVES UPSTREAM WILL RESULT IN TEMPORARY
AMPLIFICATION OVER N AMERICA...WITH A +2.5 STANDARD DEVIATION RIDGE
OVER THE W AND A -2.5 SD TROF OVER THE ERN USA. THE WAVELENGTH WILL
BROADEN AND THE MAGNITUDE WILL DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT MID-NEXT WEEK...
WITH SIGNIFICANT DEAMPLIFICATION PROBABLE LATE NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE: A POTENT CLIPPER WILL BE RACING SE ACROSS THE CAN PRAIRIES
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED POLAR COLD FRONT WILL SURGE S AND
CROSS THE FCST AREA SAT NIGHT. IT THEN LOOKS LIKE THE ARCTIC FRONT
SLIDES THRU MON. HIGH PRES ARRIVES TUE AND THEN IT WRN EDGE OF THE
COLDER AIR BEGINS TO EDGE E INTO WED...WITH A WARM FRONT SHARPENING
AND APPROACHING.

NW FLOW IS A DRY PATTERN. SO ANY PRECIP THREATS WILL BE
LIGHT/MINOR.THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC COLD WILL SURGE INTO THE ERN
USA...MISSING US JUST TO THE E. BUT THE WRN FRINGE OF THESE AIR
MASSES WILL KEEP TEMPS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW NORMAL. THE FCST
AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A CLIPPER SAT. THAT COULD BE A
DAY OF TEMPORARY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

A FEW DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT: DECREASING CLOUDS.

SAT: TEMPS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE COMPLICATION OF SNOW
COVER. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S...EVEN
WITH THE SNOW COVER. IT`S LOOKING VERY WARM IN THE LOW-LVLS...BUT
NOT SURE HOW DEEPLY THE BL MIXES INTO THIS TO BRING IT DOWN.

SUN: COLD SECTOR. WINDY IN CAA...BUT ACTUAL AIR TEMPS NOT THAT
COLD.

COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES N OF I-80 SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. JET
FORCING IS STRONG ALOFT...BUT MOISTURE IS LACKING.

MON: TEMPS DROP BACK TO NORMAL...POSSIBLY BELOW. WE MAY NOT BE HIGH
ENOUGH WITH THE WARP-AROUND CLOUD COVER ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE
THERMAL TROF. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND
E...BUT IT`S NOT IN THE FCST YET.

TUE-WED: QUIET AND DRY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 501 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN IS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG
EARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE HELD OFF ON BRINGING IN
VISIBILITY OBSTRUCTIONS TO THE FORECAST RIGHT NOW...THINK THE
GUIDANCE IS A BIT OVER DONE. WILL WATCH IT AND AMEND IF
NECESSARY. OTHER THAN THAT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP...WHICH MAKES
THE FOG FORECAST TRICKY...AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BY MORNING. VFR IS FORECAST...BUT IF FOG DEVELOPS...MVFR IS
POSSIBLE IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...BILLINGS WRIGHT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

355 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

NW FLOW IS A DRY PATTERN. SO ANY PRECIP THREATS WILL BE
LIGHT/MINOR.THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC COLD WILL SURGE INTO THE ERN
USA...MISSING USJUST TO THE E. BUT THE WRN FRINGE OF THESE AIR
MASSES WILL KEEPTEMPS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW NORMAL. THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN THEWARM SECTOR OF A CLIPPER SAT. THAT COULD BE A DAY OF
TEMPORARY ABOVENORMAL TEMPS.

A FEW DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT: DECREASING CLOUDS.

SUN: COLD SECTOR. WINDY IN CAA...BUT ACTUALY AIR TEMPS NOT THAT
COLD.

COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES N OF I-80 SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. JET
FORCING IS STRONG ALOFT...BUT MOISTURE IS LACKING.

TUE-WED: QUIET AND DRY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
VALID PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE IS AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF FOG THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE WIND DIES DOWN...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS POINT IN TIME. THERE
IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THE CHANCE IS ALSO TOO LOW FOR PUTTING IN
THE TAF AND WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACT FROM THIS POSSIBLE
LIGHT SNOW.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

1046 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS OVER A VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AREAS OF LIFR DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG OVER THE
NE THIS EVENING INCLUDING CAO. BELIEVE THEY WILL STAY N AND E OF
TCC THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL. GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES ELSEWHERE. WHERE THERE IS FRESH SNOWPACK MEANS THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOW CIGS/VSBY RESTRICTIONS. MOST AT RISK AMONG THE TAF SITES
IS LVS AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TCC. 40

.PREV DISCUSSION...501 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016...
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE NE/EC WHERE SNOW
CONTINUES TO FALL. CLAYTON REPORTED 0.4 INCHES WHEN THE SNOWFALL
WENT THRU THERE...SO HAVE ADDED SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMS AS FAR
SOUTH AS KTCC. HRRR AND NAM MODEL PROGS SUGGEST THIS WILL DIMINISH
BY 06Z. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

.PREV DISCUSSION...456 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLD MVFR CONDITIONS OVER A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF NE NM
THROUGH ABOUT 6Z DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES TCC. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS OVER A VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT AND FRESH SNOWPACK MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS/VIS RESTRICTIONS. MOST AT RISK IS LVS AND
FMN. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT INTO TAF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.
40

.PREV DISCUSSION...325 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A QUIET AND COLD PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS
AREAWIDE. SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER FOR AWHILE INTO THE
EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
STATE...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT FOR PRECIPITATION...NOTHING THAT
SIGNIFICANT. YET ANOTHER COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCES WILL
WILL BRUSH NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO BETWEEN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT WITH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY QUITE
LIMITED...NOT MUCH OTHER THAN A FEW SHOW SHOWERS OR PATCHES OF
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED AND LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO HALF
OF THE STATE. BY THE WEEKEND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES...SATURDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST AND THEN
SUNDAY MORE SO ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH. FURTHER WARMING IS
EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST MID OR LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL...LOOKING AHEAD THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE MUCH LESS
UNSETTLED THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS PAST WEEK. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TO NE NM SHOULD BOW
OUT GRACEFULLY LATER TONIGHT. TONIGHT WILL BE ONE OF THE COLDEST
NIGHTS OF THE SEASON SO FAR WITH SOME MINIMUMS IN THE COLDER MTN
VALLEYS OF THE NORTH LIKELY TO PLUMMET TO BETWEEN 20 AND 35
DEGREES BELOW ZERO AS SKIES CLEAR OUT. A BIT OF FREEZING FOG NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION IN SOME OF THESE LOCALES...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
QUITE HIGH ENOUGH AND ANY THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE QUITE
LOCALIZED.

ONE MORE BOUT WITH A COUPLE OF MOISTURE LIMITED DISTURBANCES ALOFT
EXPECTED FOR THE THU TO FRI PERIOD AND THE FCST MODELS ARE FINALLY
IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN THAT THEY WILL BRUSH THE N CENTRAL AND NE
PART OF THE STATE. ONLY TRIMMED THE MOSTLY LOW POPS A BIT MORE
OVER THAT WHICH WAS PARED OFF OVER THE LAST 2 MAIN FCST
PACKAGES...KEEPING COVERAGE SOMEWHAT LARGER THAN MAJORITY OF FCST
MODELS INDICATED OUT OF CONCERN THAT...AT OR NEAR THE LAST
MINUTE...THERE STILL MAY BE SOMEWHAT OF A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
TRACK OF THESE IMPULSES AS SEEMS TO OCCUR A BIT MORE OFTEN THAN
NOT. BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS TO BE THE CASE AREAWIDE INTO THE
END OF THE WEEK. BY THE WEEKEND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES...SATURDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST AND THEN
SUNDAY MORE SO ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH. FURTHER WARMING IS
EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST MID OR LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS THE RULE AND A CONTINUED PRECIP FREE
SCENARIO WITH SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT NOT FAR WEST OF THE
STATE.

.FIRE WEATHER...
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE RH/DEWPOINT GRIDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
VERY STRONG MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL SNEAK IN FROM THE
WEST/SOUTH. A PACIFIC WAVE PASSAGE ON FRIDAY WILL BEAT IT BACK SOME
BUT THEN IT SHOULD RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.
VERY TRICKY RH FORECASTING SO PLAN FOR WILD SWINGS. OTHERWISE VERY
FEW CHANGES OVERALL AS THE FORECAST TRENDS DRIER AND DRIER.

VENTILATION APPEARS TO BE THE LOWEST ON THURSDAY. THE WAVE IS STILL
NOT FAST ENOUGH TO RAISE MIXING HEIGHTS BUT IS EXPECTED TO RAISE
BOTH MIXING HEIGHT AND TRANSPORT WIND ON FRIDAY. THE FRIDAY VENT
RATE FORECAST HAS JUMPED AROUND THE PAST FEW DAYS SO PLAN ON SOME
CONTINUED VARIABILITY UNTIL THE MODELS RESOLVE THE WAVE BETTER. VENT
RATES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE WEEKEND. A VERY
STRONG RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST COAST AND ACT TO
DEFLECT MOST OF THE SYSTEM PASSAGES TO THE EAST. MODELS STILL SHOW
WAVE FOR LATER SUNDAY AND IF IT WERE TO TRACK BACK TO THE
WEST...THEN VENT RATES WOULD IMPROVE.

RIDGING IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK. ONCE AGAIN...THE PLACEMENT OF
THE RIDGE WILL BE CRUCIAL IN TERMS OF VENT RATE FORECASTS. IF IT
WERE TO STAY FURTHER WEST THEN VENT RATES WOULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER.
EITHER WAY...THEY LOOK PRETTY LOW NEXT WEEK COMPARED TO WHAT
OCCURRED AND WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK. A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRY
INTRUSION WILL ALSO BE FOUND WITH THE RIDGE. DEWPOINT FORECASTS FROM
THE MODELS APPEARED TO BE TOO HIGH SO LOWERED THEM ACROSS THE BOARD.
SNOW MELT WILL MAKE IT TRICKY ACROSS THE LOW/MID ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD EVENTUALLY WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL STATUS SOMETIME
DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

118 AM EST THU FEB 04 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT... AS
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING... THEN COOL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 740 PM WEDNESDAY...

LATEST RADAR SHOWS THAT THE THREAT OF CONVECTION AND HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS HAS MOSTLY MOVED EAST OF OUR CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING OUR FAR E/SE COUNTIES IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN...WHERE SOME POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE...FARTHER WEST THE CHARACTER OF THE
RAIN HAS TRANSITIONED TO MORE OF A STRATIFORM OFF-AND-ON LIGHT RAIN.
THE COLD FRONT...AS OF 00Z...WAS STILL LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST AND AS A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT
LIFTS OUT TO OUR NE. THE LATEST HRRR ALSO SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO...
THUS HAVE TWEAKED GRIDS TO SHOW POPS GRADUALLY DECREASING OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA...WHILE MAINTAINING AT LEAST A
GOOD-CHANCE POP ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF AS THOSE ZONES WILL LIKELY
SEE OFF-AND-ON RAIN OR SHOWERS PERSIST MOST OF THE NIGHT. BY
DAYBREAK...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWING DOWN ALONG OR JUST EAST OF
I-95...AND SO MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE CONFINED MOSTLY ALONG AND
EAST OF I-95. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AS THURSDAY
MORNING PROGRESSES...THANKS TO A LOW PRESSURE WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE
NE ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WILL SPREAD SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN BACK
WESTWARD AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS OUR NW/TRIAD ZONES
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TO THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR
WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE LATER TO ARRIVE.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM WEDNESDAY...

PRECIP SHOULD BE ONGOING TO START THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT SLOWLY INCHES TO THE EAST. THE FRONT WILL NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR
THE AREA UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHEN A KICKER WAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. IN FACT IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIP MAY HOLD ON SLIGHTLY LONGER
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK ALONG THE
FRONT FURTHER SLOWING DOWN ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION. WITH THIS IN
MIND...PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES AND HIGHEST QPF VALUES
WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT ON THURSDAY...BUT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN/EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL FINALLY MOVE OUT OF
THE BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT IS PUSHED
OFFSHORE. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN WITH THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S/LOWER 60S ON THURSDAY AND EVEN COOLER BY FRIDAY ONCE THE FRONT
FINALLY PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S/LOW 50S... WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 20S/LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM WEDNESDAY...

PRECIP WILL LIKELY RETURN TO THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY (CONSIDERABLY EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS) AS A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST US AND INDUCES A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVES UP THE COAST. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOMEWHAT
BETTER AGREEMENT...THUS CONFIDENCE (IN AT LEAST PRECIP COVERAGE) IS
SLOWLY INCREASING. PRECIP SHOULD MOVE BACK INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.
WHERE LOWER CONFIDENCE EXISTS IS WHETHER OR NOT P-TYPE WILL BE AN
ISSUE. AT THIS TIME...GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROFILES...WILL
INTRODUCE RAIN AND/OR SNOW AT BOTH THE ONSET LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN AGAIN AS IT PULLS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER EVEN DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING
DOWN SOME ARCTIC AIR OUT OF CANADA...WITH THE AREA SEEING HIGHS IN
THE 30S AND 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW WITH
RESPECT TO HOW THIS WILL ULTIMATELY EVOLVE...THEREFORE WILL NOT PUT
A LOT OF DETAIL IN THE PRECIP FORECAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ARCTIC
AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...P-TYPE ISSUES COULD POTENTIALLY BECOME A
PROBLEM FOR NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED.

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 115 AM THURSDAY...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS -- MOSTLY IFR -- WILL DOMINATE AT ALL SITES
THIS MORNING... ALTHOUGH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR THEN VFR IS EXPECTED AT
INT/GSO TOWARD DAYBREAK. RDU/RWI/FAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR OR
PERHAPS LOW-END MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HRS.

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS WILL TRACK SLOWLY
EASTWARD TODAY... REACHING COASTAL NC TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT... RESULTING
IN MULTIPLE CLOUD DECKS OVER OUR AREA THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. IFR/LIFR CIGS AT INT/GSO ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR
THEN VFR IN THE 11Z-14Z TIME FRAME AND REMAIN VFR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. FURTHER EAST HOWEVER... CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD
IN THE 500-1500 FT AGL RANGE THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD... WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR OR IFR ESPECIALLY FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON (MAINLY 15Z-22Z) AS A WEAK TROUGH
ALOFT CROSSES THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS INITIALLY LIGHT FROM THE SW
WILL SWING AROUND TO NW THEN FROM THE NORTH OR NNE... FIRST AT
INT/GSO EARLY THIS MORNING THEN TO RDU BY MID MORNING AND TO RWI/FAY
BY LATE MORNING. SOME GUSTY WINDS FROM THE NNE UP TO 20 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY FRI MORNING... SUB-VFR CONDITIONS (MOSTLY
IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS) WILL HOLD UNTIL NEAR OR SOON AFTER DAYBREAK
FRI... WHEN A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER AND EXITS
THE AREA. THEN... VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY... ALTHOUGH ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING
A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATE IN THE PERIOD... MAINLY SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY. -GIH

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

1105 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN ONTARIO.
THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC SATURDAY. SUNDAY A CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. MONDAY THE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS MICHIGAN AND INTO OHIO.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVE ALMOST MADE IT TO THE PA BORDER. THIS WILL HOLD TEMPS
A LITTLE FROM LAST NIGHT. MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES.

PREVIOUS...HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS ACROSS MICHIGAN AND
INTO NORTHERN INDIANA IN AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF
A WEAK TROUGH. THE NAM ALSO SHOWS A SHORT WAVE IN THE GENERAL AREA
AS WELL. FOLLOWING 850MB MOISTURE WHICH IS A GOOD PROXY SO
FAR...THIS MOISTURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WILL USE THE NAM12 850MB RH AS A STARTING TEMPLATE FOR SKY COVER
GRIDS TONIGHT. THE HRRR BRINGS IN SOME PATCHY FLURRIES BUT FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE DRY. WILL GO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF MAV TEMP GUIDANCE
FOR TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY MORNING
THE WEAK TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST IN THE MORNING AS ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER TROUGH DROP TOWARD THE AREA. ALSO A SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS
SERN CANADA NORTH OF THE REGION. BEST MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF
THE AREA CLOSER TO THIS SYSTEM SO AM EXPECTING AT LEAST PARTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 40. SATURDAY NIGHT
WE SHOULD SEE WEAK WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COLD
FRONT FROM THE CANADIAN LOW STALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES.
SUNDAY ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN FROM
SCNTRL CANADA. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY
AND SHOULD BRING RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST TO BEGIN WITH BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT
WILL MOVE CHANCE POPS EAST AND INCREASE TO LIKELY WEST. HIGHS
ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINTER WILL BE RETURNING FOR NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR AREA
WIDE SNOW SHOWERS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES. CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MONDAY MAY BE
MARGINAL...AND WE MAY SEE A RA/SN MIX. IT WILL GET COLD ENOUGH BY
MONDAY NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE
CONFINED MORE TO THE SNOWBELT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW REORGANIZES
ITSELF AROUND JAMES BAY. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WE START TO SEE
SOME SPREAD IN THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
THE GFS THE COLDEST.

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK
TROUGH NOW INTO NW OHIO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST THE 4K-6K OVC DECK WILL BE
REPLACED BY MID LEVEL DECK.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SNOW.

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE ON
SATURDAY TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AS A CLIPPER BRUSHES THE GREAT LAKES.
BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN TO DECREASE IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM WESTERN SUPERIOR. THIS LOW WILL STALL AND REMAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO BE STRONG THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES. DURING THIS PERIOD 20 TO 25 KNOTS LOOK COMMON.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB/OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

933 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVE ALMOST MADE IT TO THE PA BORDER. THIS WILL HOLD TEMPS
A LITTLE FROM LAST NIGHT. MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES.

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A 4K-6K OVC DECK WITH PATCHY MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...AND LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SNOW.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB/OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

607 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS ACROSS MICHIGAN AND INTO
NORTHERN INDIANA IN AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A
WEAK TROUGH. THE NAM ALSO SHOWS A SHORT WAVE IN THE GENERAL AREA
AS WELL. FOLLOWING 850MB MOISTURE WHICH IS A GOOD PROXY SO
FAR...THIS MOISTURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WILL USE THE NAM12 850MB RH AS A STARTING TEMPLATE FOR SKY COVER
GRIDS TONIGHT. THE HRRR BRINGS IN SOME PATCHY FLURRIES BUT FOR
NOW WILL LEAVE DRY. WILL GO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF MAV TEMP
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SNOW.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB/OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

1005 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE NORTH...
NEAR A BROWNWOOD TO SONORA LINE AT 10 PM. BASE OF MID AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING QUICKLY THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH
HEIGHT FALLS AND DPVA ASSISTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY SOUTHWARD INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR
MIDNIGHT THROUGH 2 AM...THEN RACING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA EAST OF I-35 2-5AM. THE SHOWERS WILL BE PRIMARILY LOCATED
NORTHEAST OF A LLANO TO SAN MARCOS TO CUERO LINE. RAP ANALYSIS
INDICATES -24 TO -27 DEG C 500MB TEMPS IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ENTERING THE EWX CWA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SLIVER OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...WHEN COMBINED WITH MODERATE DYNAMICAL FORCING...
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA. THE WINDOW WILL BE SHORT AND CHANCES
LOW...NEVERTHELESS ELECTED TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT MENTION OF THUNDER
IN NORTHEAST ZONES.

RAPID CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY IN THE MORNING. BREEZY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME GUSTS 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY AND
I-35 CORRIDOR...BEFORE SETTLING BACK DOWN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS
RH VALUES BOTTOM OUT. AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER HAS BEEN
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

AVIATION...
WATCHING A COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOOK
FOR THE FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH DRT BY AROUND 04Z AND AUSTIN AND SAN
ANTONIO BY 09Z. THE BIGGEST CHANGE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO THE
WEST OR NORTHWEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR RAIN IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO...BUT HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
PROB30. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA AT THE PRESENT TIME. DRY AIR STILL EXISTS
AT THE SURFACE WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 20S AND 30S. WITH
SOUTH WINDS RETURNING WE SHOULD SEE MOISTURE VALUES CREEP UP EVER
SO SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH DEW POINTS
NEAR 40 DEGREES BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL HELP WITH THE
PRODUCTION OF A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP
AROUND MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. CURRENTLY...A
STRONG TROUGH CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DIGGING INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. AT THE SAME TIME...THE RESPONDING COLD FRONT
IS CURRENTLY IN WEST TEXAS. THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
HAS SLOWED A BIT AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW THERE TO BE BETTER UPPER
SUPPORT FOR SHOWER PRODUCTION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVERNIGHT. YESTERDAY...MODELS SHOWED THE MAIN LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH TO BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH LITTLE TO NO SHOWER
PRODUCTION ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. WITH THE TWO FEATURES BEING
SOMEWHAT BETTER ALIGNED AND WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...HIGH-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA ALONG THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA ACROSS THE EAST JUST AFTER
SUNRISE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL RANGE FROM A
TRACE TO ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BEHIND
THE FRONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER
TO UPPER 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS.
SHOULD SEE MANY AREAS REACH THE FREEZING MARK SUNDAY MORNING ONCE
AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE LONG-TERM FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DRY WEATHER WITH
ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BE DRY AS THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT DRIER AIR WITH DEWPOINTS
AROUND 10 DEGREES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES BY MONDAY
MORNING. WITH THE DRIER AIR AND WEAKER WINDS ON TUESDAY
MORNING...SHOULD SEE AREAS GET TO FREEZING ONCE AGAIN. WENT A
COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY MORNING GIVEN HOW DRY
THE AIR WILL BE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS SOUTH FLOW RETURNS...BUT ANOTHER DRY FRONT IS POSSIBLE BY
FRIDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
WITH CONTINUED DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOW. VALUES FOR THE MOST PART WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID-TEENS TO 30 PERCENT SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE LOWER VALUES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES WITH THE
HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE EAST. WITH THE LOW VALUES ACROSS THE
WEST...THE WIND FORECAST WILL BE HEAVILY MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EACH DAY. TOMORROW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LOWERING TO 10 TO 12 MPH ONCE THE 20 DEGREE OR LESS RH VALUES
OCCUR. GIVEN THIS ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE WESTERN LOCATIONS AND POSSIBLE THE NORTHWESTERN HILL
COUNTRY...OR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY ON SUNDAY WHERE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AND
THEN BE AREA WIDE ON MONDAY AS BREEZY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
CREATE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH EVEN DRIER AIR
EXPECTED.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 39 61 36 68 39 / 50 - 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 37 62 31 67 37 / 50 - 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 38 64 33 68 37 / 40 - 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 33 59 33 67 36 / 30 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 36 67 35 71 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 36 59 32 66 37 / 40 - 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 36 66 31 70 37 / 30 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 39 63 33 66 37 / 50 - 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 41 62 35 66 39 / 50 20 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 40 65 34 68 38 / 30 - 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 40 66 34 69 39 / 30 - 0 0 0

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

1230 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
TRAILING SOUTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY...PASSING OVERHEAD FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1130 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

UPDATED GRIDS TO REMOVE RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND TO
DELAY ONSET OF UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE IN
SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA.

COLD AIR REMAINS WELL BACK IN THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE DEW POINT
FRONT. WARM AIR REMAINING OVER COLD GROUND TONIGHT HAS ALSO
CREATED AREAS OF FOG ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FOG WILL
SCOUR AS MIXING INCREASES WITH THE PASSING OF THE COLD FRONT
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

AS OF 857 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

MODIFIED TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE WEST. ADJUSTED POPS ONCE AGAIN FOR
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IN GENERAL...TREND BACK THE WESTERN
EDGE OF SHOWERS. REGIONAL WSR-88D CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. LEANED
THE POPS TOWARDS THE HRRR. THE HIRESWARW-EAST AND RAP WERE JUST A
LITTLE SLOWER ON THE EXIT OF THE RAIN. OVERALL...HIGHRES MODELS
WERE FAIRLY CLOSE ON TIMING OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE COLD
AIR WAS LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES FOR THURSDAY MORNING.

AS OF 655 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

A COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE AXIS OF THE HEAVY RAINS HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF OUR AREA INTO EASTERN VIRGINIA AND EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. KFCX 88D SHOWED SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. SOME DRIER AIR IS PUSHING EAST INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHAPED POPS FOR THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT TOWARDS THE HRRR. ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG BECAUSE
CLEARING THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES FOR THIS EVENING WITH LATEST SURFACE OBS AND
TOWARDS MODEL TREND WITH TEMPERATURES READINGS RISING A FEW DEGREES
THIS EVENING PRIOR TO FROPA THEN FALLING TONIGHT. THE REAL COLD AIR
LAGS TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COLD AIR TO HAVE A FEW SNOW
FLURRIES IN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS AROUND DAYBREAK. MORE CHANGES
LATER TONIGHT...

AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. CONVEYOR BELT OF HEAVY RAIN HAS
MOVED EAST INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN VA/NC. ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT LAGS
AND IT MAY TAKE MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE WE BEGIN TO SWAP THE
MOIST AIRMASS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH ANY DRYING COMING IN FROM
THE WEST. IN THE INTERIM...MAY HAVE TO ENTERTAIN AREAS OF FOG AS
ANY CLEARING THIS EVENING WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. RUNOFF FROM TODAYS RAINFALL WILL ALSO REMAIN
A CONCERN. EVEN THOUGH SMALL STREAMS WILL BE RECEDING...THE LARGER
RIVERS WILL ACTUALLY RISE. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
LOWER ROANOKE AND LOWER DAN RIVERS. OTHERS ARE BEING WATCHED
CLOSELY..SEE HYDRO SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE NON-DIURNAL AND ABOVE NORMAL...
READINGS ACTUALLY RISING A FEW DEGREES THIS EVENING PRIOR TO
FROPA. COLD AIR LAGS...SO NO PTYPE ISSUES TONIGHT. MAY SEE SOME
FLURRIES IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WV TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT THATS ABOUT
IT. ELSEWHERE...ANY REMAINING MOISTURE WOULD BE LIQUID...WITH MAIN
THREAT FOR ANY LINGERING RAINFALL EAST OF HIGHWAY 29.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE MAIN WEATHER RELATED CONCERNS WILL BE FOUND AT THE FAR WESTERN AND
FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER JUST OFF TO OUR EAST AS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
DEVELOPS A LOW ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL BUCKLE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

MEANWHILE ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES...COLDER AIR MOVING IN ON
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE GENERATING SOME MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME LOCATIONS AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL ALLOW A VIGOROUS UPPER TROF TO MOVE OVER THE
EASTERN US AND DEVELOP A STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
ALL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WITH JUST SOME SPRINKLES POSSIBLE
FOR THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHSIDE LATE ON SUNDAY.

BY MONDAY A MUCH DEEPER TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN US AND SET UP A
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER PATTERN...WHILE A COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN DEVELOPS
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT PLAINS...FOLLOWED BY A
TRANSFER OF ENERGY TO A DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.
THE COMBINATION OF THE COLDER AIR AND DEVELOPING SURFACE FEATURES LOOKS
LIKE IT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA MAINLY WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION SO WIDESPREAD WINTER WEATHER ISSUES
ARE NOT LIKELY.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 20S
WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 30S EAST OF THE RIDGE.

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST THURSDAY...

THE COLD FRONT IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH A
COLD GROUND AND WARM AIR...DENSE FOG DEVELOPED AT BCB/ROA/LYH. AS
THE FRONT JOGS EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...MIXING WILL
INCREASE SCOUR FOG AT BCB/ROA AROUND 09Z THURSDAY AND AT LYH
AROUND 11Z. ALL SITES SHOULD HAVE VFR VISIBILITIES AFTER SUNRISE.

CEILINGS WILL LIFT AT ROA/BCB/LYH/DAN AS THE FRONT TRACKS EAST
AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...BLF/LWB WILL DROP
TO MVFR AS MOISTURE POOLS ALONG WESTERN SLOPES AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ENTERS THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY...BUT A HIGHER CHANCE TOWARDS EVENING
AS THE TROUGH GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TO PROVIDE COLDER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS...AND WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
APPEARS TO STAY JUST SOUTH OF US SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP
AND MVFR CIGS EDGING TOWARD THE VA/NC BORDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY

FLASH FLOOD THREAT ON THE WANE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AFTER A
BUSY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH SEVERAL FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND
FLOOD ADVISORIES ISSUED. SEVERAL OF THESE WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BUT THE HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CWA
BY EARLY EVENING. WE ARE THEN LEFT WITH THE AFTERMATH AS SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL RECEDE QUICKLY BUT NUMEROUS ROADS WILL
REMAIN CLOSED DUE TO STANDING WATER AND PONDING. MEANWHILE RUNOFF
INTO LARGER STREAMS AND MAINSTEM RIVERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
WITH MANY RIVERS RISING VERY RAPIDLY. RIVER FLOODING IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST ONLY ALONG THE LOWER DAN AND ROANOKE RIVERS WITH MINOR
CATEGORY FLOODING EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ON THESE RIVERS.
SEE FLOOD WARNING PRODUCTS /WBCFLWRNK/ FOR DETAILS ON THIS
FLOODING. ESSENTIALLY EVERY OTHER MAJOR RIVER...INCLUDING THE
YADKIN...JAMES...GREENBRIER AND UPPER NEW (ABOVE RADFORD) ARE
FORECAST TO SEE SIGNIFICANT RISES BUT ONLY TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE ACTION STAGE...REMAINING SEVERAL FEET BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
THESE RIVERS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVIATIONS FROM THE FORECAST AS MINOR FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...KK/PM/RCS
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...RCS
HYDROLOGY...PC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

1141 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1130 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

UPDATED GRIDS TO REMOVE RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND TO
DELAY ONSET OF UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE IN
SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA.

AS OF 857 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

AS OF 655 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 20S
WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 30S EAST OF THE RIDGE.

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN CIG/VIS CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN CONFIDENCE INCREASING WITH TIME.

THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS THAT IMPACTED THE REGION EARLIER IN
THE DAY WEDNESDAY HAVE SINCE PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREAS.
THUS...HAVE ENDED RESIDUAL SHRA FROM THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
TAF AREA.

EXPECT A HIGH DEGREE OF VARIABILITY IN CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT FINISHES ITS PASSAGE TO THE EAST...WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING PREDOMINANT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ESTABLISH
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE WEDGE WILL
HOLD EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SO KEPT LYH/DAN ENTERING INTO IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOWER CONFIDENCE
WEST...WERE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO JUMP AROUND...AND MIXING IS MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT. I EXPECT ALL SITES TO BE VFR FROM
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH EXCEPTIONS
POSSIBLE IN UPSLOPE AREAS THAT MAY SEE A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER. EXPECT
WINDS TO BECOME A BIT GUSTY AS THEY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
ESPECIALLY AT KBLF...KROA...AND KBCB.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
BY LATE THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TO PROVIDE
COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...AND WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST APPEARS TO STAY JUST SOUTH OF US SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLE
LIGHT PRECIP AND MVFR CIGS EDGING TOWARD THE VA/NC BORDER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...KK/PM/RCS
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...MBS/WP
HYDROLOGY...PC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SEATTLE WA

330 AM PST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. A
WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LIGHT
RAIN AT TIMES. THE NEXT STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR RAINY AND WINDY WEATHER.
SHOWERS WILL LINGER SATURDAY...AND A STRONG UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BRING
DRY MILD WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SHORT TERM...RADAR INDICATES SHOWERS CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO WRN
WA IN POST-FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW. THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE AREA WITH MODERATELY STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW AT 850 MB HELPING TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES IN THE
MOUNTAINS. SNOW AMOUNTS SNOW FAR THIS MORNING RANGE FROM AROUND 6-8
INCHES IN THE PASSES AND NEAR A FOOT AT SOME HIGHER SKI RESORT
LOCATIONS. A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL EARLY THIS MORNING
BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF. THE SNOW ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT UNTIL NOON TODAY.

MODELS INDICATE A WARM FRONT OFFSHORE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NE OVER THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN BUT QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW IS
EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS FEATURE LIFTS N OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY PUTTING WRN WA IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
NEXT VIGOROUS COLD FRONT. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE CONSIDERABLY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. FREEZING LEVELS ON THE MODELS ARE SLOW
TO MODERATE THE AIR MASS OVER THE CASCADES BUT GIVEN THE STRONG FLOW
DEVELOPING AND WEDGE OF WARMER AIR AT 850 MB AROUND +4 C...SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD RISE TO AT LEAST 6000 FEET. THE ONLY AREA IN QUESTION
IS THE N CASCADES WHERE SNOW LEVELS COULD REMAIN LOWER AT SPOTS LIKE
MOUNT BAKER.

RAIN ARRIVES AT THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING AND SPREADS INLAND DURING
THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION MAY START OFF AS SNOW IN SOME MOUNTAIN
AREAS BUT SHOULD MIX AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO RAIN IN THE PASSES
RATHER QUICKLY. SNOW LEVELS WILL CRASH WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY EVENING
WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO PASS LEVELS AGAIN. SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE BUT THE HIGH SNOW LEVELS TO START SHOULD CUT BACK
POTENTIAL AMOUNTS CONSIDERABLY. THE WRF-GFS PICKS UP ON THIS IDEA
WITH ONLY HIGHER MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS GETTING ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE AT PASS LEVEL FRIDAY NIGHT.
AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED BUT PROBABLY NOT WARNING AMOUNTS. MOUNT
BAKER COULD BE THE ONE SPOT THAT PICKS UP LOCALLY MORE SNOW.

SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW GRADUALLY TAPER OFF SATURDAY IN POST
FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW. MODELS STILL HOLD ONTO SOME SPOTTY LIGHT QPF
INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL KEEP THE CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST...THOUGH MOST SPOTS WILL PROBABLY NOT MEASURE AFTER MIDDAY.

.LONG TERM...A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IS STILL ADVERTISED BY
MODELS TO BUILD OVER THE WRN U.S. SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MID
WEEK. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A WARM FRONT OFFSHORE BRUSHES
THE AREA WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY MORNING BUT THIS WOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND NOT LIKELY TO REACH INLAND
AREAS. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY MONDAY AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE. MODELS SHOW 500 MB HEIGHTS RISING TO
OVER 5800M MONDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND +14C. HIGHS
WERE NUDGED UPWARD A BIT WITH UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 FORECAST BUT I
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LOW 60S WERE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN FORECAST
OR WHAT MOS INDICATES. HEIGHTS COME DOWN SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SO HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 BUT IT WILL
STILL BE A PLEASANT STRETCH OF SUNNY DRY WEATHER. MERCER

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT FROM LAST NIGHT IS CURRENTLY ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE CASCADES. WITH THAT...UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN FROM WEST-
SOUTHWEST TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL TURN
WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
MOIST AND MOSTLY STABLE.

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SHOWER ACTIVITY ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
SOUND...WITH BANDS OF PRECIP ENTERING THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND THE
CENTRAL OLYMPIC PENINSULA. THIS GAP SHOULD ALLOW MOST TAF SITES TO
REMAIN DRY FOR THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS...DEPENDING ON LOCATION.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE TRAVERSING RIDGE BRINGS PRECIP TO AN END BY
THIS EVENING.

CIGS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON GENERALLY LOW END VFR TO MVFR. MAY SEE
THEM LOWER DOWN INTO LOW END MVFR WITH AFTERNOON PRECIP...BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO REBOUND WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THIS EVENING. SMR

KSEA...GENERALLY DRY THROUGH ABOUT 12Z THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTERWARD...WITH CHANCES INCREASING IN THE
AFTERNOON THEN ENDING BETWEEN 00-03Z. CIGS FALLING TO MVFR FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...REBOUNDING WITH PRECIP END. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH SPEEDS TYPICALLY 7-12
KTS. SMR

.MARINE...THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT LAST NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. CURRENT BATCH OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OVER
MOST WATERS WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...AS NO SITES AT THIS TIME
OBSERVING WINDS THAT MEET CRITERIA. EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE
COASTAL WATERS. THEY REMAIN CLOSE...ONLY A FEW KNOTS UNDER
CRITERIA...AND WITH WINDS OVER THESE WATERS EXPECTED TO RISE AGAIN
LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...NO REASON TO YO-YO THE
ADVISORY.

NEXT FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL BRING WINDS UP...ONCE AGAIN PRECEDED BY
STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENTS...THEN GRADUALLY RELAXING AND
SHIFTING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH MODELS REMAINING
CONSISTENT ON GALES...OPTED TO GET THE BALL ROLLING BY ISSUING A
GALE WATCH FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. EAST ENTRANCE AND NORTHERN INLAND
WATERS MAY REQUIRE INCLUSION...ALBEIT A LITTLE BIT LATER THAN THE
COASTAL WATERS...BUT WILL LEAVE THAT DECISION TO DAY SHIFT
FORECASTER.

ENERGETIC SWELL EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...PEAKING ON EARLY
THIS MORNING AROUND 16-18 FEET WITH A LONG PERIOD OF 19-20 SECONDS.
DESPITE BEING UNDER 20 FEET...THE LONG PERIOD ENERGY HAS PROMPTED A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR BOTH THE CENTRAL AND NORTH COAST. SWELL THIS
LARGE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE MORE BEACH EROSION PROBLEMS ALONG
THE WASHINGTON COAST ESPECIALLY IN WESTPORT AND OCEAN SHORES. ON
FRIDAY...ANOTHER SWELL TRAIN WILL ARRIVE...BUT THE PERIOD WILL BE
UNDER 15 SECONDS...AND THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL ARRIVE DURING A LOW
TIDE ON FRI PM...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE AS MUCH ISSUE WITH BEACH
EROSION ON FRI. SMR/HANER

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR THE CASCADES OF
PIERCE AND LEWIS COUNTIES-CASCADES OF SNOHOMISH AND KING
COUNTIES-CASCADES OF WHATCOM AND SKAGIT COUNTIES.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST TODAY FOR CENTRAL COAST-
NORTH COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 6 PM PST TODAY FOR
GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST TODAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER
10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM-WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA.

GALE WATCH COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST TODAY FOR CENTRAL U.S.
WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-NORTHERN INLAND WATERS INCLUDING THE
SAN JUAN ISLANDS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PST TODAY FOR PUGET SOUND AND
HOOD CANAL.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1006 PM PST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Light to moderate snow accumulations will accompany the passage
of a storm system tonight. Another system will bring rain and
mountain snow Friday night into Saturday. Breezy to windy
conditions are expected to occur late Friday into Saturday. Strong
high pressure will bring several days of dry weather Sunday into
the middle part of next week.

.DISCUSSION...
Update: Overall forecast through Thursday morning looks in good
shape with only a few minor changes to the current highlights. An
upper level trough over western Washington this evening will track
east across Eastern Washington and north Idaho tonight. Moist
isentropic lift is overtaking the region with widespread light
snow expected this evening with a few exceptions. Main exception
is south of I-90 where some of the lower spots such as Othello, La
Crosse, and Lewiston should see mainly rain. Also, strong
downslope flow off area mountains may result in only light precip
totals for the Lewiston-Clarkston Valley. Otherwise a widespread
light snow event is expected but will become enhanced early
Thursday morning as a band of brief moderate to heavy snow
develops as the upper trough axis swings inland and a short wave
tracking through combined with increased mid level instability
occurs. The HRRR has been placing this band between Spokane and
Pullman and with some support from the NAM and GFS will be
extending the winter weather advisories through 10 am Thursday for
the Spokane and Coeur D`Alene area. This area of enhanced snowfall
will track into the Central Panhandle Mountains as well Thursday
morning. JW

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A low pressure system will spread mainly snow over the
region through Thursday morning. Snow will continue over Eastern
Washington and north Idaho tonight but will be decreasing or
ending at KEAT/KMWH between 6-8z. Another wave tracks through
12-18z bringing another round of snow showers for
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW. Abundant boundary layer moisture and snow
will result in IFR/MVFR conditions for most of the area into
Thursday morning. Some limited improvement is projected around
PUW/GEG/SFF/COE in the afternoon. But there will be better chance
of reaching VFR conditions elsewhere. JW

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 29 37 28 41 33 40 / 100 50 10 10 80 20
Coeur d`Alene 28 35 30 40 33 39 / 100 70 20 20 80 60
Pullman 33 39 32 43 36 43 / 100 80 20 10 70 40
Lewiston 37 45 34 49 40 50 / 70 50 10 10 50 20
Colville 29 36 28 37 33 38 / 100 40 10 20 80 20
Sandpoint 28 34 30 37 33 37 / 100 70 20 30 80 70
Kellogg 28 33 30 37 32 36 / 100 100 60 30 80 70
Moses Lake 30 41 29 43 34 45 / 90 20 0 10 60 10
Wenatchee 27 38 27 38 32 41 / 90 10 0 20 70 10
Omak 25 35 26 35 30 37 / 100 10 0 30 80 10

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for Coeur
d`Alene Area.

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for Idaho
Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties.

Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST Thursday for Central
Panhandle Mountains-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Thursday for Northeast
Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Upper Columbia Basin.

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for Washington
Palouse-Spokane area.

Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM PST Thursday for East Slopes
Northern Cascades-Okanogan Valley-Waterville Plateau.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PORTLAND OR

917 PM PST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A RATHER STRONG MOIST PACIFIC OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE
ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THIS EVENING WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW AND SOME COASTAL WIND. A SECONDARY TRAILING SHORT WAVE WILL KEEP
SHOWERS GOING TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER NEAR THE COAST. THE
MOISTURE WILL THEN MERGE WITH A WARM FRONT AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM ON THURSDAY FOR MORE AREAS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ON THURSDAY NIGHT FOR DRYING. ANOTHER
STRONG PACIFIC OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BRING MORE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
TO THE AREA LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLY EVEN
STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE COAST THAN TODAY. AN UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR DRY WEATHER
WITH EAST WINDS NEAR THE GORGE AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG AWAY FROM THE
GORGE.
&&

.COLD FRONT CROSSED THE CASCADE CREST EARLIER THIS EVENING WITH
SHOWERS STARTING TO INCREASE. THE INCREASE IS IN RESPONSE TO
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED
JUST OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND AND STRETCHING SOUTH TO ABOUT COOS BAY.
THE PRIMARY FRONT EARLIER THIS EVENING WAS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO
SCOUR OUT A COLD POOL OVER THE CENTRAL GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER
VALLEY. RECEIVED REPORTS OF SNOW DOWN TO ABOUT 600 FEET ON BOTH
SIDES OF THE COLUMBIA. LOOKS LIKE AROUND AN INCH FELL NEAR 1500 FEET
AND PRESUME SMALLER AMOUNTS LOWER IN THE VALLEY AND OFF THE GORGE
BOTTOM. SNOW HAS SINCE TAPERED OFF TO SHOWERS AND FEEL ANY MORE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL COME IN SHORT AND LIGHT BURSTS AS SHOWERS GET
TORN APART BY THE CASCADES. MAY PICK UP CLOSE TO ANOTHER INCH TOTAL
FOR THE UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY ENDING AROUND DAYBREAK BUT
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. MODELS DO INDICATE WINDS SHOULD SWITCH
WESTERLY AND BRING A LITTLE BIT OF WARMER AIR ALONG WITH THEM. THUS
FEEL THE SNOW LEVELS WILL LIFT BACK UP CLOSER TO 2000 FEET. EVEN IF
THE WARMING DOESNT MATERIALIZE...THE CAT`S OUT OF THE BAG AND FEEL
ISSUING A SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL GORGE WOULD NOT HAVE MUCH
USEFULNESS GIVEN THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. ELSEWHERE...MANY OF THE SNOTEL AND ODOT REPORTS GIVE
ABOUT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS INCLUDING THE GOVERNMENT CAMP
AREA UP TO AROUND 6000 FEET ACROSS THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES. WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORIES IN PLACE THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE MAINLY THROUGH DAYBREAK TOMORROW WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER
COUPLE INCHES DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. UPDATES WILL BE AVAILABLE
SHORTLY. /JBONK

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 PM PST WED FEB 3 2016/

SHORT TERM...THE NEXT PACIFIC OCCLUDED FRONT CONTINUED ITS MARCH
TOWARD THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST AROUND 3 OR 4 PM...AND THROUGH THE
INLAND AREAS IN THE EVENING. THE FRONT IS FED BY ABOUT 1.3 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...AND IS PRODUCING DECENT PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET WITH THIS
FRONT...AND WE SHOULD GET AT LEAST MID RANGE GALES OVER THE WATERS
AND SOME DECENT WINDS ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY AT BEACHES AND
HEADLANDS...BUT LIKELY BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA.

THERE IS A SECONDARY VORTICITY MAX/SHORT WAVE CROSSING 130W THIS
AFTERNOON THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT FOR MORE SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER NEAR THE
COAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING INTO THURSDAY. THEN MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM NOW OUT BETWEEN 140W AND 150W SPREADS IN
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT SALEM
OR CORVALLIS NORTHWARD...FOR MORE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. THE WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION MOSTLY
ENDING...BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG SHOULD CLOUDS BREAK UP MUCH.

WILL MAINTAIN THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH
OREGON CASCADES FOR THIS AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. IT WILL
TAKE A WHILE FOR SNOW LEVELS TO RISE WITH THE WARM FRONT....AND WHILE
SNOWFALL WILL BE LESS ON THURSDAY THAN THIS EVENING...ENOUGH SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO FALL TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE IMPACTS ACROSS THE PASSES.

THE NEXT PACIFIC OCCLUDED FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
EVENING FOR MORE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. THIS FRONT COULD PRODUCE
MORE WIND ON THE COAST THAN THE ONE TODAY...AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF
HIGH WINDS ALONG THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE WELL
EAST OF THE CASCADES BY SATURDAY MORNING. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN
MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON ON SATURDAY
WITH ANY TRAILING SHOWERS DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. TOLLESON

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEATHER THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS TO LOOK LIKE SPRING...ESPECIALLY BY MIDWEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING UP INTO THE UPPER 50S...MAYBE EVEN 60S. WE
MAY SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE CASCADES...BEFORE A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
STRONG PERSISTENT RIDGE WILL BRING EAST WINDS THROUGH THE GORGE AND
FOG TO THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND LOWER COLUMBIA-I5
CORRIDOR EACH NIGHT...WHERE HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT-TO- CALM WINDS
WILL CREATE STAGNANT CONDITIONS STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES STARTING ON
SUNDAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON HOW WIDESPREAD
AND PERSISTENT THE FOG IS EACH NIGHT. IF WE SEE MORE WIDESPREAD FOG
DEVELOP THAT HANGS AROUND THROUGH MIDDAY TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL BE
COOLER IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY BELOW 1000-1500 FT. HOWEVER IF WE
ONLY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP THAT BURNS OFF BY LATE MORNING AS
CURRENTLY FORECAST...TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE GORGE WILL EASILY
MAKE IT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S...MAYBE EVEN LOW 60S. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE CASCADES THIS EVENING WITH
SHOWERS IN THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS. CIGS GENERALLY REMAIN VFR
WITH A FEW POCKETS OF LOCAL MVFR. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH
12Z...BUT LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE AS WELL AS LOWERING MVFR CIGS AT THE COAST BY 12Z-14Z THU
AND REACHING INLAND...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
AREA...BY 15-17Z. SMALL POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM FOR THE COASTAL
TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN
TAF. MOUNTAINS TO REMAIN OBSCURED THROUGH THU MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THIS EVENING WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS IN
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. SURFACE WIND REMAINS S AT AROUND 10 KT.
EXPECT INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR BETWEEN 15Z
AND 20Z...WITH TRENDING TOWARD VFR CIGS FOR THE LATER AFTERNOON
HOURS ON THU. CULLEN

.MARINE...WINDS CONTINUE TO EASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE WATERS THIS
EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT REMAIN IN THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
WATERS FRI FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES...WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT
POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
PERIOD. AS A RESULT...HAVE HOISTED THE GALE WATCH FOR THIS PERIOD.
THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY EVENING
WITH WIND SPEEDS FALLING OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
DEVELOPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH OFFSHORE FLOW SUN THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. EXPECT TO SEE GUSTY WIND THROUGH COASTAL GAPS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

SEAS CONTINUING TO BUILD THIS AFTERNOON. A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL
HAS ARRIVED IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND WITH WIND SPEEDS LETTING UP
A BIT...A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 19 TO 21 SECONDS IS NOW BEING CARRIED
IN THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS. THUS...EXPECTED THE COMPLICATED SEA
STATE TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT THE WITH WEST PRIMARY
SWELL...AND A DIMINISHING SW WIND WAVE COMPONENT. THIS LARGE AND
LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE BRINGS SEAS TO 19 FT OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND ACHIEVING 20-FOOT SEAS
ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF WIND SPEEDS END UP STRONGER THAN
FORECAST. SEAS FINALLY DIP BELOW 10 FT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SURGE IN WAVE HEIGHTS MONDAY DESPITE
AN OFFSHORE WIND PATTERN AS A SWELL GENERATED OVER THE PACIFIC
ENTERS THE COASTAL WATERS. CULLEN

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON
COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THURSDAY FOR NORTHERN
OREGON CASCADES.

WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THURSDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON
COAST.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THURSDAY FOR SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 8 PM PST THURSDAY.

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
845 PM PST WED FEB 3 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A cold front pushes into the Cascades tonight and slips
east of the region Thursday morning. Snow and some rain will
increase from west to east across the aviation forecast area
tonight, starting near EAT/MWH this afternoon and expanding toward
the eastern TAF sites toward 02-05Z. Some moderate snows are
possible and snow amounts up to 3 inches are possible by Thursday
morning, especially near GEG/SFF/COE/PUW. Elsewhere snow amounts
will be less or little to nothing where rain falls or mixes in,
largely MWH/LWS. The steadier snow threat shifts into the
Panhandle Thursday morning, but scattered snow showers will be a
threat through at least midday to early afternoon over the
eastern TAF. However additional accumulations, if any, should be
limited. CIGS/VIS will degrade to MVFR/IFR levels. Some limited
improvement is projected around PUW/GEG/SFF/COE in the afternoon.
But there will be better chance of reaching VFR conditions
elsewhere. Expect some breezy conditions with the cold front, with
potential wind gusts in the 15 to 25 mph range, especially around
PUW/GEG. /J. Cote`

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for Coeur
d`Alene Area.

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for Idaho
Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties.

Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST Thursday for Central
Panhandle Mountains-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Thursday for Northeast
Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Upper Columbia Basin.

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for Washington
Palouse-Spokane area.

Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM PST Thursday for East Slopes
Northern Cascades-Okanogan Valley-Waterville Plateau.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SHREVEPORT LA

1156 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

AVIATION...
FOR THE ARKLATEX...EXITING AREA OF CLOUDS E W/ INCREASING LOW AND
MID DECKS FROM THE W AHEAD OF A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM OVER S OK
ATTM. OVERCAST DECKS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH VICINITY SHOWERS
FOR KSHV AND VFR -RA FOR TX TERMINALS AFTER DAYBREAK TOWARD LUNCH.
IFR/CIG TEMPOED FOR KTYR WITH MVFR KGGG/KLFK. OUR SFC WIND IS
CALM WITH SE FLOW EXTENDING UP FOR A FEW THOUSAND FEET BEFORE
VEERING AROUND TO S/SW/W INTO THE MIDLEVEL FLOW. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL RRESUME LATE SAT AND CONTINUE INTO SUN W/ SKC.
/24/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 923 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

UPDATE...
CLOUD COVER IS DISSIPATING LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION AND WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...
TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING QUICKLY. IN FACT...WE ARE ALREADY AT FCST
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AS OF 03Z THIS
EVENING.

ALL OTHER GRIDS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...UPDATED FORECAST OUT
SHORTLY...13.

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

24/99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

1124 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE:
Issued at 933 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2016

Britt

.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 325 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2016

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM: (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 325 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2016

Otherwise, NW upper flow continues thru all of next week and will
leave the door open for additional cold air intrusions, one of which
is slated to drop down Thursday or Friday.

Overall a period of mainly below average temps separated briefly by
periods of above average temps, with little in the way of
precipitation.

TES

.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2016

Dry and VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Light
easterly winds will shift to the southwest early on Saturday
morning as high pressure moves off to the east.

Specifics for KSTL: Dry and VFR conditions are expected the next
30 hours.

Britt

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

1135 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

THERE ARE SEVERAL SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS...LIGHT SNOW ENDING
THIS EVENING...POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT AND THEN STRONG WINDS
WITH LIGHT SNOW/BLOWING SNOW SUNDAY/MONDAY.

AMPLIFIED MID TROPOSPHERIC PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS.
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NOW WILL PUSH EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND SNOW WILL END. RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BUILD EAST
INTO THE AREA BUT WEAKEN THROUGH SATURDAY. BY LATE SATURDAY...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA BACK INTO
WYOMING. THE PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AGAIN SUNDAY AS A RIDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND THAT SHORTWAVE
INTENSIFIES AND FORMS A CLOSED LOW OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.

TONIGHT...WARM FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE AREA BUT WINDS WILL DROP OFF. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...THERE
MAY BE SOME FOG. EXPERIMENTAL HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN HINTING AT DENSE
FOG FORMATION FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS...STARTING NORTH OF
THE PLATTE RIVER PRIOR TO 06Z. THAT MODEL THEN EXPANDS THE FOG AND
KEEPS IT INTO MID MORNING SATURDAY. THIS ALL DEPENDS ON CLOUD COVER.
THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO BRING CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME AT LEAST SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND DECOUPLING OF WINDS OVER DEEPER SNOW COVER. SURFACE
WINDS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST ARE NOT ALL THAT FAVORABLE FOR FOG
LOCALLY...BUT AIRMASS BEHIND THIS TROUGH/WIND SHIFT IS FAIRLY
MOIST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE VERY TRICKY...WITH SNOW
AND FOG POTENTIAL. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS.

SATURDAY...CLOUDS AND FOG MAY LINGER IN THE MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN IOWA AND EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT AND SHOULD GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IF CLOUDS DECREASE AS EXPECTED AND WE CAN GET
SOME SUNSHINE...HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SHOULD BE REALIZED.
AREAS WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA SHOULD REACH INTO
THE MID 40S.

LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE (POSSIBLY INTO WIND ADVISORY CATEGORY) AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LAG A BIT. WILL KEEP SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW. BEST CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW WILL STAY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT INCLUDED
SOME LOW POPS IN OUR AREA...WITH SOME MOISTURE WRAPPING INTO THE
AREA. LAPSE RATES STEEPEN BELOW 750 IN GFS AND NAM FCST SOUNDINGS
SO THE IDEA OF SNOW SHOWERS STILL SEEMS PRUDENT. SNOW CHANCES WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW COULD BECOME PROBLEMATIC
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL MONITOR THIS FOR LATER FORECASTS AND MAY
NEED TO HIT HARDER WITH SOME TYPE OF ADVISORY LATER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

LITTLE OR NO PCPN IS EXPECTED IN THIS PERIOD...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A BIT FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

STRONG 500 MB RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA
TUESDAY AND OUR AREA WILL BE IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW. THAT RIDGE
SHOULD DEAMPLIFY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN BECOMING
MORE ZONAL.

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

BATCH OF MVFR CIGS SHOULD CLEAR KLNK AND KOMA TAF SITES BY 10Z.
MVFR VSBYS IN FOG ARE LIKELY THROUGH 16Z OR SO AT KOMA AND PERHAPS
KLNK...BUT SOME LOWER VSBYS AT OR BELOW 1SM ARE POSSIBLE AT KOMA.
ALL AREAS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY 18Z AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DERGAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

1059 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
WATCHING A COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH DRT BY THE START OF THE PERIOD AND AUSTIN
AND SAN ANTONIO BY 08 OR 09Z. THE BIGGEST CHANGE WILL BE A WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO...BUT ANY RAIN
WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND NOT AFFECT FLYING CATEGORY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS SATURDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLEAR AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS
AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

UPDATE...COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE NORTH...
NEAR A BROWNWOOD TO SONORA LINE AT 10 PM. BASE OF MID AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING QUICKLY THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH
HEIGHT FALLS AND DPVA ASSISTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY SOUTHWARD INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR
MIDNIGHT THROUGH 2 AM...THEN RACING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA EAST OF I-35 2-5AM. THE SHOWERS WILL BE PRIMARILY LOCATED
NORTHEAST OF A LLANO TO SAN MARCOS TO CUERO LINE. RAP ANALYSIS
INDICATES -24 TO -27 DEG C 500MB TEMPS IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ENTERING THE EWX CWA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SLIVER OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...WHEN COMBINED WITH MODERATE DYNAMICAL FORCING...
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA. THE WINDOW WILL BE SHORT AND CHANCES
LOW...NEVERTHELESS ELECTED TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT MENTION OF THUNDER
IN NORTHEAST ZONES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

932 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
932 AM CST

FOR MORNING UPDATE...

AFTER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AN AREA OF STRATUS WAS SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN
IL ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE I-88 CORRIDOR AND WILL MAKE FOR CLOUDY
OR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THESE LOCATIONS TODAY. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS WITHIN WEAK LOW LEVEL
MOIST AXIS OVER IA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND
AFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE CWA. RELATIVELY SHALLOW
NATURE OF CLOUD DECK AS INFERRED FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND RAP SOUNDINGS...COMBINED WITH PASSAGE OF MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION AND HAVE REMOVED FLURRIES
FROM MORNING FORECAST. HAVE ALSO DECREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. OTHER
ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST...INCLUDING TEMPERATURES...APPEAR TO BE
ON TRACK. UPDATED GRIDS/ZFP AVAILABLE.

RATZER

.SHORT TERM...
327 AM CST

THROUGH SUNDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND VORT STREAMER SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES ALSO SHIFTING SOUTHEAST.
THE FLURRIES ARE STRUGGLING RIGHT NOW...AND NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATION. SOUTHWEST WINDS USHER IN WARMER AIR WITH HIGHS AROUND
40. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-80 SHOULD SEE SOME SUN TODAY...AND THE SUN
SHOULD HELP TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE VORT STREAMER ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES OVER NW IL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD KICK OFF LIGHT RAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH THAN THE OTHER MODELS
REGARDING PRECIP SUNDAY...SO ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE AND EXTENT OF RAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS WILL
BE RAIN. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

JEE

.LONG TERM...
327 AM CST

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES IT TIME SHIFTING EAST THROUGH MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE LOW ALSO HANGS AROUND THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL VORT STREAMERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH WILL FORCE PRECIP THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...AND LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR NW INDIANA. RAIN WILL
TURN TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FEATURE WEAK FORCING...BUT
A DEEP DGZ. SO EXPECTING A LIGHT PERSISTENT SNOWFALL THAT GRADUALLY
ACCUMULATES. THE TYPE OF SNOW SHOULD START AS A WET SNOW BUT QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO A DRY SNOW. PRELIMINARY EVENT TOTALS ARE ONLY 1-2
INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTER COUNTY WHERE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL LINGER LONGER. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS COULD RESULT IN
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ESPECIALLY IN OPEN
AREAS.

TEMPS FALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
SPREADS OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE AROUND 20. THE
COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM +5 TO
+12...BUT WIND CHILLS WILL BE 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO.

THE ECMWF FEATURES AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE BRINGING PRECIP TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTN WHILE THE GFS HAS THE WAVE FIZZLING OUT. KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY DUE TO A LACK OF CONFIDENCE...BUT THE MODELS SHOW A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY.
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

JEE

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...

A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ORD AND MDW
FROM MID-MORNING UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BE ALL ABOVE
2000 FT. CONFIDENCE ON THIS OCCURRING IS LOW FOR CHICAGO AREA
SITES...WHILE HIGHER FOR RFD WHERE TEMPORARY 1500-2000 FT CIGS
COULD OCCUR DURING MID-LATE MORNING. WINDS COULD GET NEAR LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE TONIGHT. A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EXISTS SUNDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT IS
QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.

A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO
EASTERN IOWA WILL GRADUALLY DAMPEN/WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. PROFILER WINDS AT KDVN INDICATE
ENOUGH OF A WESTERLY WIND PUSH FROM 1500-3000 FT TO STEER MVFR
CIGS INTO AT LEAST NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY 13Z...WITH PROBABLY
SOME PATCHES GETTING INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS LATER THIS MORNING.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE PEAKING RIGHT AROUND 10 KT
MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON.

WHILE SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 1500 FT SHOULD PEAK AROUND 40 KT
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE PROFILE
JUST BELOW LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR CRITERIA. AS MOISTENING LOWERS
SUNDAY MORNING...CANNOT 100 PERCENT RULE OUT WIDELY PATCHY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN...AND THAT IS A BIG IF...IT
COULD BE A BRIEF LIGHT MIX WITH ICE PELLETS.

MTF

.MARINE...
119 AM CST

A WEAK BUT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY SCOOT EAST THROUGH TODAY. MORNING WIND
GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE LAKE SHOULD BE AROUND
30 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RE-INCREASE TO THAT
MAGNITUDE TONIGHT AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. THE WINDS ACTUALLY WILL EASE A TAD
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MORE SO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG.

HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW FAST THIS NEXT LOW WILL MOVE INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. BEHIND IT THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST
OCCASIONAL GALES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THAT SIGNAL IS A BIT LESS THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS
AGO...LIKELY BECAUSE THE LOW HAS SLOWED IN MODEL GUIDANCE. THERE
MAY BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SECOND COLD
PUSH MOVES OVER THE LAKE...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS.

MTF

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

927 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
PASS WELL NORTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL PRODUCED SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS OF NEW
YORK AND VERMONT. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET
WITH SEASONABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK EXPECT
A PATTERN THAT WILL SEE OFF AND ON LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE MID
WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 921 AM EST SATURDAY...HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS
ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
VT...ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE OBS SHOW MSS DOWN TO 1/2SM
IN MODERATE SNOW WITH HIGHGATE BRIEFLY DOWN TO 3/4SM IN LIGHT SNOW
THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH GENERAL LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS BETTER MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND 5H SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING...WITH GENERAL DRYING
AND LESS DYNAMICS ALOFT. HOWEVER...WITH COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH TROF AND SOME SURFACE WARMING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WILL
HELP TO PRODUCE STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CHC/LIKELY WITH ANY ACCUMULATION
AN INCH OR LESS. OTHERWISE...ONLY A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES IN THE VALLEYS WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 20S
MOUNTAINS TO MID/UPPER 30S IN THE WARMER VALLEYS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 326 AM EST SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS EAST OF JAMES BAY IN CANADA. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE
OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE 925-800MB
FLOW TURNS WESTERLY AND WE COULD SEE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS
DEVELOP ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE EXPECT THE STRATUS DECK THAT GENERATED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD INTO VERMONT AND SEE GENERALLY
CLOUD SKIES THROUGH THE DAY.

THE SURFACE FRONT FROM THE LOW OVER JAMES BAY DOESN`T LOOK TO
MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO VERMONT OR NEW YORK BUT THERE WILL BE A
WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT RIDES ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AS IT
CROSSES INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK BY LATE MORNING EXPECT A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH FORECAST.

SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL BRING USHER IN LIGHT WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND BRING 925MB TEMPS UP BY AROUND 4-5 DEGC INTO THE
-3C TO -5C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SUPPORTS DAYTIME HIGHS INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE FLOW THIS EVENING WILL TURN MORE WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT JUST TO THE NORTH NEAR
MONTREAL. THERE IS SOME BUST POTENTIAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IF SOME
OF THAT SHALLOW AIR GETS TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH NEW YORK
AND CANADA. I DONT EXPECT IT TO HAPPEN SO THE COLDER AIR SHOULD
STAY JUST TO THE NORTH AND OUR LOWS THIS EVENING WILL BE IN THE
MID 20S WHICH IS WELL ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS OF SINGLE DIGITS.

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EST SATURDAY...MODELS SHOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SUNDAY.
MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WITH THIS WEAKENING
FRONT AND GENERALLY WASH IT OUT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HAVE
JUST KEPT IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY
EARLY SUNDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM
QUEBEC SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL LIES
BETWEEN 2 SYSTEMS. A DEEPENING OCEAN STORM THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST SUNDAY AND MOVES NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL
SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK (40N 70W) EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL LIE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS
THE REGION WILL LIE IN THE MIDDLE BETWEEN 2 SYSTEMS.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EST SATURDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND GIVE THE NORTH COUNTRY A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND WILL
BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR IN WHAT HAS BEEN
A RELATIVELY MILD WINTER. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SUGGEST THIS
OUTBREAK OF ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE FROM FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY VFR WITH THE
EXCEPTION AT SLK WHERE SHOW SHOWERS HAVE REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO
IFR AND CEILINGS TO MVFR. CURRENT RAP GUIDANCE SHOWS SLK HOLDING
ON TO LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH OFF AND ON
SHOWERS. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO MSS BY SHORTLY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 15-16Z BRIEFLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS. ELSEWHERE ANTICIPATE A STRATUS DECK HOLDING ON
AROUND 6000-7500 FEET. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AT
KMSS/KBTV.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUN-18Z SUN...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

18Z SUN-18Z MON...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z MON ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

651 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 643 AM EST SATURDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. CURRENT REFLECTIVITY`S SHOW THE
SNOW DEVELOPING AND SPREADING UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. DID
BOOST THE CHANGE FOR SNOW SHOWERS UP A BIT TO MATCH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO
CHANGES NEEDED. ENJOY THE START TO YOUR WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EST SATURDAY...MODELS SHOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SUNDAY.
MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WITH THIS WEAKENING
FRONT AND GENERALLY WASH IT OUT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HAVE
JUST KEPT IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY
EARLY SUNDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM
QUEBEC SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL LIES
BETWEEN 2 SYSTEMS. A DEEPENING OCEAN STORM THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST SUNDAY AND MOVES NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL
SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK (40N 70W) EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL LIE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS
THE REGION WILL LIE IN THE MIDDLE BETWEEN 2 SYSTEMS.

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY VFR WITH THE
EXCEPTION AT SLK WHERE SHOW SHOWERS HAVE REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO
IFR AND CEILINGS TO MVFR. CURRENT RAP GUIDANCE SHOWS SLK HOLDING
ON TO LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH OFF AND ON
SHOWERS. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO MSS BY SHORTLY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 15-16Z BRIEFLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS. ELSEWHERE ANTICIPATE A STRATUS DECK HOLDING ON
AROUND 6000-7500 FEET. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AT
KMSS/KBTV.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUN-18Z SUN...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

18Z SUN-18Z MON...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z MON ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

229 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
932 AM CST

FOR MORNING UPDATE...

RATZER

.SHORT TERM...
327 AM CST

THROUGH SUNDAY...

JEE

.LONG TERM...
229 PM CST

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONGER
TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DROPPING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN AND INTO LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY WITH NWLY WINDS
GUSTING TO 25 TO 30MPH AT TIMES. STRONG COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BEGIN
IN EARNEST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE ERN
GREAT LAKES AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PAC NORTHWEST. THE
UPPER FLOW PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN AMPLITUDE INTO
MIDWEEK WHILE SHOWING LITTLE PROGRESSION. THIS WILL SET UP THE NEXT
ROUND OF COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION AS A PERSISTENT FETCH OF
COLD AIR OUT OF THE ARCTIC WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. BY
TUESDAY...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MIDDLE
20S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD GENERALLY
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH TEMPS ARND 10-12F
OVER THE SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND DOWNTOWN CHICAGO. WIND CHILL
READINGS SHOULD BE LOWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WINDS ARND 10 MPH
PERSIST OVERNIGHT...DRIVING WIND CHILLS DOWN TO -10 TO -15F. BY
THURSDAY...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN A BIT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS FLATTENING IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP
UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL ALSO HELP THE
UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT TO THE EAST. SO...BY LATE IN THE
PERIOD...CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND A LITTLE WARMER...BUT TEMPERATURES
SHOULD STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DROP SEWD THROUGH THE FAST NWLY FLOW SETTING UP
ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAY END UP BEING A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY HIGH
POPS AND LOW QPF AS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE FOR THE SHORTWAVES TO WORK WITH. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY...PCPN MAY ALSO JUST BE SCT SNOW SHOWERS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME ACCUMULATION FOR THE PERIOD FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CURRENT INDICATORS SUGGESTING 1 TO
3 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXPECT THAT PCPN CHANCES WILL SHUT OFF AS UPPER FLOW
TRENDS TOWARD A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER PORTIONS OF THE CONUS EAST
OF THE ROCKIES AND WEAK RIDGING ALONG THE ROCKIES. SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE ERN SHORES OF LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT THE
LOCAL AREA SHOULD TREND DRY.

KREIN

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS ARE A SHORT DURATION OF MVFR CIGS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY.

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT MIDDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE WAS HELPING TO ADVECT AN AREA OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL...WITH
NORTHERN IL TERMINAL SITES GENERALLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE MORE SOLID CLOUD COVER. BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS...
A BRIEF 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN THE 1500-2000 FT RANGE
WILL LIKELY AFFECT ORD/DPA/MDW/RFD...WITH GYY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SCATTERED AT BEST. RFD WILL BE CLOSER TO THE MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER TO THE NORTH AND WEST THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT RFD WILL ALSO
SCATTER OUT. WINDS THEN LOOK TO BACK SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
THIS EVENING...IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
EXTENSIVE AREA OF IFR/LIFR OVER IA EXPECTED TO LIFT MORE NORTHEAST
THAN EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH GUIDANCE KEEPING IL/NW IN TERMINALS
VFR WHILE ERODING AND SHIFTING IFR CIGS NORTHEAST ACROSS WI.

AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A GRADUAL TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT
AND INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT. STRONG LOW LEVEL
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT GUSTINESS LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH
WINDS LIKELY GUSTING 20+ KTS FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AS
PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TRAILING THE LOW.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM VARIOUS MODELS MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE DRY
AIR IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AND MINIMAL
PRECIP THREAT.

RATZER

.MARINE...
119 AM CST

MTF

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1147 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
932 AM CST

FOR MORNING UPDATE...

RATZER

.SHORT TERM...
327 AM CST

THROUGH SUNDAY...

JEE

.LONG TERM...
327 AM CST

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

JEE

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS ARE A SHORT DURATION OF MVFR CIGS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY.

RATZER

.MARINE...
119 AM CST

MTF

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

335 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS EVIDENT ACROSS MONTANA AND THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS AFTN AS PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AHEAD OF
THIS SHORT WAVE...BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS ND/SD...AND
MOVED AS FAR EAST AS WC MN. REGIONAL OBS HAVE ALSO REPORTED
SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN WITH THE RADAR ECHOES. SOME OF THE OBS HAD EVEN
RECORDED A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVED ACROSS
THE AREA.

DUE TO THE FACT THAT OBS ARE REPORTING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND
THE LATEST RAP HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION...HAVE UPDATED WX GRIDS TO INCORPORATE LIKELY POPS IN
WC MN/CENTRAL MN DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING TIME FRAME. AS THE
LIGHT RAIN MOVES EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MN DURING THE EVENING...SFC
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ICY CONDS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. AS THIS
AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN AND WC WI...TEMPS
ALOFT ARE COLD ENOUGH TO HAD A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW.

DUE TO A PERSISTENT SW/WEST FLOW COMING FROM THE DAKOTAS WHERE
TODAYS TEMPS WERE IN THE 40S...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FALLING TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH MANY AREAS HAVING STEADY TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SUNDAY/S WX IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN/SW/SC MN FOR A TRUE BLIZZARD TO FORM. TODAYS
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH 40S ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE HAVE
CREATED A DENSER SNOWPACK /LESS LIKELY TO BLOW AROUND/. SOME AREAS
IN WC MN HAVE EVEN LOST MOST OF THEIR SNOWPACK...SO ANY BLOWING SNOW
WILL NEED TO BE FROM NEW SNOW SUNDAY AFTN. THEREFORE...DUE TO
PROBLEMS RELATED TO GENERATING BLOWING SNOW...THE BLIZZARD WATCH
WILL CONTINUE. FURTHER TO THE EAST WHERE A BETTER CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED AND THE SNOWPACK IS DEEPER...A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY AFTN THRU MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING AS TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO FALL FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE STATE BY THE AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LONGER TERM CONCERN REMAINS BLIZZARD POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

WE STILL ANTICIPATE STRONG WINDS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS INTO MONDAY MORNING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS TO THE EAST OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. BUFKIT PROFILES OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH SHOWING MAX GUST
POTENTIALS OF 45-50 KTS. LARGE DGZ ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND
EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS OVERALL. THE HIGHER SNOW FALL
POTENTIAL OF 2-3 INCHES OVER THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH MONDAY
CWA. THE MAIN LIMITING SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL REMAINS
WARMER AIR TODAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING SOME SETTLING TO THE
EXISTING SNOW PACK...HOW WIDESPREAD THE NEW SNOW WILL BE AND ONLY
LIMITED SNOW FALL OVER WEST CENTRAL MN FROM THE FEB 2-3 EVENT.
THE BLOWING SNOW MODEL INDICATES IF SNOW IS REALIZED...WE WOULD
LIKELY SEE THE GROUND BLIZZARD ACROSS THE CURRENT BLIZZARD WATCH
AREA. ALSO...THE LATEST CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE STILL WAS INDICATING
A GREATER THAN 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF 2-3 HR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
BEING REALIZE AS WELL.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
THE LONG TERM MODELS WITH THE CHANCE OF A WEAK CLIPPER/WAA
ADVECTION PATTERN MOVING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR
NOW. THE OTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW MOVES IN WITH ANOTHER WEAK
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD
REMAIN DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK. THERE ARE SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTER HALF OF THE CWA.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDS THIS AFTN WITH S/SW WINDS AHEAD OF
THE POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AVIATION CONCERNS DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS MVFR AND -SHRA DEVELOP
IN WESTERN MN BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY
BLW 5K IN WESTERN MN. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD AND MAY AFFECT KSTC DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING WITH
FREEZING PRECIPITATION NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BASED ON SFC TEMPS.
OTHERWISE...CONDS WILL DETERIORATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH WINDS
INCREASING FROM THE WEST/NW.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS IN THE NEXT 6 HRS WITH WINDS
GENERALLY FROM THE SSW ARND 10-12 KTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE SW/WEST TOWARD
MORNING. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MID/LATE
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME TO INTRODUCE IT. WILL
ALSO CONTINUE THE LLWS DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS ABV THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. CONDS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD WITH SNOW SHOWERS/BLOWING SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY AFTN.
WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS BY SUNDAY AFTN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...CHC MVFR/IFR/-SN. WINDY. BLSN POSSIBLE. WIND NW 20G35KT.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
MNZ066-067-074>076-082>085-091>093.

BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
MNZ041-047-048-054>058-064-065-073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
MNZ042>045-049-050.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
MNZ051>053-059>063-068>070-077-078.

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JLT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GLASGOW MT

918 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RADAR LIGHTING UP A BIT THIS MORNING WITH ECHOES/RAINSHOWERS
QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE GLASGOW AREA. THE HRRR TRACKS THESE INTO
THE SE ZONES ABOUT NOON SO INCREASED POPS THERE BUT SHOULD QUICKLY
EXIT INTO ND SHORTLY AFTER NOON AS THEY ARE MOVING AT ABOUT 60
MPH!

REST OF FORECAST LOOKED GOOD. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE BASE OF A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AT 12Z THIS
MORNING. IT THEN MOVES FULLY INTO NE MONTANA BEFORE NOON TODAY.
VERY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY RISE LATE IN THE MORNING
AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY AN IMPRESSIVE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE AND RAPIDLY INCREASING
LAPSE RATES FOR STRONG MIXING AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER. 50+KT WINDS
AT 700 MB SHOULD EFFICIENTLY MIX TO THE SURFACE. THE EFFECT WILL
BE FURTHER AMPLIFIED BY WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST FOR MORE
INFLUENCE FROM CAA. THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE ENTRAINED WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS IT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SOME SNOW
MIXING IN TONIGHT BEFORE THE SHOWERS DEPART. THE VERY EFFICIENT
MIXING AND STRONG WINDS WILL FULLY SCOUR OUT THE COOL AIR AT THE
SURFACE TO DRIVE HIGHS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE BY AROUND +20F. EXPECT
UPPER 40S AND EVEN HIGHS AROUND 50F IN PLACES.

SUNDAY WILL SEE THE WIND BEGINNING TO DIMINISH FROM THE WEST...
THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL NUDGE THE COLD BOUNDARY TO THE EAST TO
ALLOW WARMING FROM THE WEST. WITH THE OVERNIGHT CAA...TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP BY AROUND 10F FROM SATURDAY.

HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SINCE GFS IS PEGGING 850 MB
WIND SPEEDS AT 60+ MPH WITH LAPSE RATES OF 6 TO 8 C/KM THAT COULD
MECHANICALLY BRING SOME OF THESE HIGH WINDS TO THE SURFACE AS
GUSTS. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS COULD REACH UP TO 40 MPH EASILY
WITH THIS SYSTEM IN MOST PLACES. THE END TIMES FOR THE WARNING
SEGMENTS ARE NOT YET CERTAIN. SO THIS WILL BE MONITORED.

SCT

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES OVER THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...GRADUALLY SHIFTING WITH ANOTHER TROF PUSHING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY NEXT WEEKEND.

LEE TROF/QUASI ARCTIC BOUNDARY SETS UP OVER EASTERN MONTANA WITH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A FEW RIPPLES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH COLDER
AIRMASS EAST OF THE BOUNDARY...SHOWERS SHOULD GENERALLY BE SNOW.
EBERT

.AVIATION...

SYNOPSIS: VFR WITH MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWERED CLOUD BASES DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR: BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVAL STRONG WINDS
OVERHEAD AND WEAK WINDS AT THE SURFACE UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION
WILL LEAD TO INCREASED LLWS FROM THE WEST.

HIGH WINDS: AFTER THE FRONTS PASSAGE WEST WINDS WILL RISE TO 25 TO
35 KTS WITH BRIEF GUSTS UPWARDS OF 45 TO 50 KTS AT TIMES. THIS
WILL CAUSE BLOWING ISSUES FOR UNSECURED OBJECT ON AIRPORT GROUNDS.
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL CALM ABOUT 10 KTS OVERALL BUT MAY SPIKE AGAIN
NEAR SUN UP AND NEAR THE END OF THE CYCLE SUNDAY. GAH

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...GARFIELD...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...PETROLEUM...
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...DANIELS...DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...MCCONE...
NORTHERN VALLEY...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...WESTERN
ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

310 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...WITH A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH MID WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEVELOPING MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH WEAK 5H VORT AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEAST OF THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE PROGGED TO STREAM ACROSS
NORTHERN NY INTO VT BTWN 00-06Z TONIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST.
MEANWHILE...THE 925MB TO 850MB FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AT 25 TO 35 KNOTS...HELPING TO ADVECT SOME ADDITIONAL LAKE MOISTURE
INTO THE DACKS AND EXTREME NORTHERN GREENS NEAR JAY PEAK. BOTTOM
LINE EXPECT ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH CHC/LIKELY POPS
AND ACCUMULATIONS A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR TWO BY MORNING. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT LATEST
VIS SHOWS SOME CLEARING WITH LOWER SFC DWPTS OVER SOUTHERN VT NEAR
VSF. WILL MENTION VALUES ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE MAINLY IN
THE 20S TO NEAR 30...WITH SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE COOLER VALLEYS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...VERY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
AS WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR CWA...AND BEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL
MENTION CHC OF FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OTHERWISE
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. PROGGED 925MB TO 850MB THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM TODAY...SO EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 20S MOUNTAINS TO MID/UPPER 30S WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE NOTED
NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AFTER 15Z...WHICH
MAY KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER...MID 30S.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN GETS VERY
ACTIVE AND COMPLICATED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT IMPACTS ACROSS OUR REGION. THE BETTER SYNOPTIC
SCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SURFACE LOW PRES DEVELOPING
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN QUICKLY TRACKING
NORTHEAST WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK WITH NO IMPACTS FOR
OUR REGION...OTHER THAN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH TROF.
GIVEN THE LACK OF A BLOCKING HIGH PRES SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTH
ATLANTIC AND ORIENTATION/PLACEMENT OF STRONG JET WINDS ALOFT...THESE
TWO SOLUTIONS SEEM REASONABLE. HOWEVER...HAVE NOTED THE NAM 4KM
ALONG WITH THE SREF AND GEM...(I KNOW NOT THE BEST MODELS FOR
CAPTURING LARGE SCALE SYSTEMS) SHOW A TRACK SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST...WITH A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR OUR CWA LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THESE SOLUTIONS SHOW A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROF PULLING BACK 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ASSOCIATED
WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZONE. THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE...ALONG WITH
AN INVERTED TROF LIKE FEATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS ARE NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN POINT THE EXACT LOCATION AT THIS TIME...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH FORECASTER CONTINUITY AND MENTION CHC POPS WEST TO
LIKELY EAST. THIS THINKING IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST SUPERBLEND POP
FIELDS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE GIVEN THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS.
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 20S TO MID 30S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S. STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATER IN THE
WEEK.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 304 PM EST SATURDAY...LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND GIVE THE
NORTH COUNTRY A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENHANCED AT TIMES BY A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WHICH MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT WITH
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OR ANY BOUNDARIES/FRONTS TO ENHANCE
FORCING...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION THAT WE DO RECEIVE DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MINOR. MORE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT WE ARE
LIKELY TO SEE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR. ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN GFS WITH THE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR...BUT
BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THAT MIN TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO GO BELOW ZERO
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEXT WEEKEND MOSTLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AT MSS THROUGH ABOUT 21Z...AND AT SLK THROUGH 00Z. MAINLY
VFR CIGS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS REST OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE AT BTV/PBG
WHERE BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SHOWS SLK/MSS
HOLDING ON TO MVFR CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED CHANCE FOR A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. COLD FRONT MAY
BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN TAF SITES 10-18Z SUNDAY...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS FROM MPV SOUTH.

WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
20 KTS AT MSS/SLK/BTV. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS
OVERNIGHT AND THEN TURN LIGHT NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

305 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1227 PM EST SATURDAY...RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS
NORTHERN NY AND PARTS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. EXPECTING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE NOTED SOME
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH HIGHER COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY FIELDS ON
THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED BTV 4KM AFTER 18Z. SO A COUPLE OF BURST ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE VERY DRY...SO BEST POTENTIAL
OF A LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPS WILL WARM
INTO THE UPPER 20S MOUNTAINS TO MID/UPPER 30S VALLEYS.

HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VT...ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS.
SURFACE OBS SHOW MSS DOWN TO 1/2SM IN MODERATE SNOW WITH HIGHGATE
BRIEFLY DOWN TO 3/4SM IN LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
GENERAL LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. WATER VAPOR SHOWS BETTER
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND 5H SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS OUR
REGION THIS MORNING...WITH GENERAL DRYING AND LESS DYNAMICS ALOFT.
HOWEVER...WITH COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH TROF AND SOME SURFACE
WARMING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WILL HELP TO PRODUCE STEEPENING
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
CHC/LIKELY WITH ANY ACCUMULATION AN INCH OR LESS. OTHERWISE...ONLY
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN THE VALLEYS WITH TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 20S MOUNTAINS TO MID/UPPER 30S IN THE
WARMER VALLEYS.

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 402 AM EST SATURDAY...MODELS SHOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SUNDAY.
MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WITH THIS WEAKENING
FRONT AND GENERALLY WASH IT OUT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HAVE
JUST KEPT IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY
EARLY SUNDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM
QUEBEC SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL LIES
BETWEEN 2 SYSTEMS. A DEEPENING OCEAN STORM THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST SUNDAY AND MOVES NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL
SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK (40N 70W) EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL LIE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS
THE REGION WILL LIE IN THE MIDDLE BETWEEN 2 SYSTEMS.

WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
20 KTS AT MSS/SLK/BTV. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS
OVERNIGHT AND THEN TURN LIGHT NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

1250 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AT MSS THROUGH ABOUT 21Z...AND AT SLK THROUGH 00Z. MAINLY
VFR CIGS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS REST OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE AT BTV/PBG
WHERE BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SHOWS SLK/MSS
HOLDING ON TO MVFR CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED CHANCE FOR A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. COLD FRONT MAY
BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN TAF SITES 10-18Z SUNDAY...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS FROM MPV SOUTH.

WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
20 KTS AT MSS/SLK/BTV. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS
OVERNIGHT AND THEN TURN LIGHT NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...RJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

1232 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY VFR WITH THE
EXCEPTION AT SLK WHERE SHOW SHOWERS HAVE REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO
IFR AND CEILINGS TO MVFR. CURRENT RAP GUIDANCE SHOWS SLK HOLDING
ON TO LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH OFF AND ON
SHOWERS. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO MSS BY SHORTLY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 15-16Z BRIEFLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS. ELSEWHERE ANTICIPATE A STRATUS DECK HOLDING ON
AROUND 6000-7500 FEET. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AT
KMSS/KBTV.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUN-18Z SUN...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

18Z SUN-18Z MON...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z MON ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AMARILLO TX

406 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WERE
PRESENT ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK LEE SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM EASTERN COLORADO
INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS
MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

A COMPACT SHORTWAVE IS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR AND RAP PV ANALYSIS NOW
EMERGING ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM BROADENS AND MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION IT WILL FORCE A WEAK
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN NORTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS BY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT GIVEN ONLY WEAK
POST FRONTAL SURFACE PRESSURE RISES SHOWN IN SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINING QUITE DRY
AND ASIDE FROM SOME THIN CIRRUS PASSING THROUGH...NO CLOUDS OR
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BRB

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.. THIS PATTERN STAYS IN PLACE
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. AT THE SURFACE...LEESIDE TROUGHING SETS UP AND WE WILL
SEE A GRADUAL WARMING OF TEMPERATURES. BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE LOW 60S AND UPPER 70S.

WEST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES SOME ON THURSDAY...AND
BEGINS SHIFTING EASTWARD. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND FORCE A WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA FRIDAY...BUT WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES STILL REMAINING WARM AND NO APPRECIABLE COLD AIR
INTRUDING...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. SOME
QUESTION FOR THE WEEKEND IF MORE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAN APPROACH
THE AREA AND GIVE EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR POPS...BUT FOR NOW THINGS
LOOK DRY.

ELSENHEIMER

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 56 27 52 25 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
BEAVER OK 54 24 50 25 48 / 0 0 0 0 0
BOISE CITY OK 54 25 48 21 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
BORGER TX 57 30 52 29 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
BOYS RANCH TX 55 24 51 24 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
CANYON TX 57 25 53 24 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLARENDON TX 56 27 54 29 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
DALHART TX 54 25 49 21 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
GUYMON OK 56 25 49 24 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
HEREFORD TX 56 25 53 23 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
LIPSCOMB TX 55 28 52 29 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
PAMPA TX 54 28 51 25 48 / 0 0 0 0 0
SHAMROCK TX 55 26 55 31 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
WELLINGTON TX 56 26 57 31 54 / 0 0 0 0 0

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

17/18

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

256 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. A
STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST BUT PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST SATURDAY...

UPPER LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EARLY TONIGHT LOOKS TO HEAD
EAST AND QUICKLY HELP DEEPEN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HEADING NORTH OFF THE
FLORIDA COAST TO ALONG THE GULF STREAM BY MORNING. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO FAN HIGH/MID CLOUDS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT
EARLY ON BEFORE THE SYSTEMS START TO PHASE AND ATTEMPT TO LEAN DEEPER
MOISTURE BACK INLAND. HOWEVER HOW FAR TO THE NW THIS OCCURS REMAINS
IFFY GIVEN SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE AND DEVELOPING SURFACE-7H NORTHERLY
FLOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIP WITHIN A TIGHT DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE BACK OF THE COASTAL LOW
JUST TO THE SE THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER THE GFS/CMC DO TOUCH THE FAR CORNER
OF THE PIEDMONT WITH A FLURRY/SPRINKLE WHILE THE HRRR AND LOCAL RNK-WRF
LOOK A BIT MORE OMINOUS IN BRINGING PRECIP JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA LATE.
SINCE THESE STILL APPEAR TO BE OUTLIERS ATTM WILL ONLY BEEF UP CLOUDS
SE LATE TONIGHT BUT STAY DRY FOR NOW PENDING LATER TRENDS. OTRW WILL
RUN WITH A PC FORECAST OVERALL FOR HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING...THEN
BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY SE THIRD OVERNIGHT. LOWS AGAIN DEPENDENT UPON
THE CLOUD CANOPY AS GIVEN LOW DEWPOINTS COULD QUICKLY FALL BACK INTO
THE 20S SOONER. THUS GOING ON THE COLDER SIDE OF MOS OVERALL WHICH
STILL SUPPORTS LOW/MID 20S MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 30 SE.

SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS HEADING ALONG THE GULF STREAM SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW CATCHES UP AND HELPS SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN. GUIDANCE AGAIN
DEPICTS AN INTENSE BUT VERY COMPACT SYSTEM OFFSHORE WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT BETWEEN CLOUDS AND DEFORMATION PRECIP ON THE NW SIDE OUT EAST.
HOWEVER STILL APPEARS THAT BETWEEN DRY AIR IN PLACE AND SOME EASTWARD
BOOT VIA THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE KICKER THAT MOST DEEP MOISTURE
SHOULD AGAIN STAY JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY MORNING BUT
SOMETHING STILL TO WATCH. THEREFORE PLAN TO STAY DRY WITH MORE SUN WEST
AND CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO MORE SUN DURING THE DAY EAST AS THE MID DECK
CANOPY SLOWLY FADES AND SHIFTS EAST. WINDS MAY TURN GUSTY AS WELL
SUNDAY OUT EAST ON THE PERIMETER OF THE CYCLONE WHILE OVERALL WARMING
ALOFT TAKES PLACE. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S WEST AND
PERHAPS SOME 50S JUST IN THE LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON THE EDGE OF THE
EASTERN CLOUD SHIELD PENDING HOW FAST IT EXITS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT SATURDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS
OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL SPIN UP AN INTENSE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. THE MODELS KEEP THE CWA DRY...BUT
SOME CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER OVER THE PIEDMONT. AS THE COASTAL LOW
EXITS ON MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC. A
POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD
PROVIDE LIGHT SNOW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING MONDAY. THE 12Z
ECMWF SEEMS TOO SLOW WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND THE
APPROACHING ARCTIC AIR...WHILE THE 12Z GFS MAY BE TOO BULLISH WITH
QPF. PRECIPITATION TYPE BECOMES MORE PROBLEMATIC IN THE
PIEDMONT...AS FLURRIES BEGIN OVER THE PIEDMONT BEFORE CHANGING TO
RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S. THE RAIN WOULD CHANGE
BACK TO FLURRIES BY MONDAY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES DROP.

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD BY TUESDAY...AS A DEEP
ARCTIC AIR MASS SPILLS OVER THE CWA. WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING
520 DAM AND MODEL SOUNDINGS PORTRAYING A NEARLY SATURATED CLOUD
LAYER UP TO -30 C FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY...THE
UPSLOPE SNOW MACHINE WILL BE HUMMING AT FULL POWER ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES. WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES APPEAR LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS
DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SO IT HAS BEEN MENTIONED IN THE HWO.
AREAS TO THE EAST MAY STILL A FEW FLURRIES FLYING IN THE NORTHWEST
WIND...BUT NO ACCUMULATION WILL BE REALIZED AFTER THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
DEPARTS OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE HELD BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD DUE TO PERSISTENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION. ONE LAST CONCERN COULD BE THE WIND CHILL ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS THESE VALUES MAY DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BY DAWN...AND POSSIBLY HIT ZERO ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EST SATURDAY...

A DEEP ARCTIC AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP THE UPSLOPE SNOW MACHINE IN ACTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES...BUT THE PIEDMONT SHOULD STAY DRY FROM THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE SNOWFALL THREAT WILL DECREASE LATER IN
THE WORK WEEK...THE THREAT FOR LOW WIND CHILL VALUES WILL INCREASE.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS PROJECT THAT THE WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA OF -5 F IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS ON EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND EVEN LOWER TO -10 F BY
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DIVING INTO THE TEENS AND
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND A DECENT NORTHWEST BREEZE...THE WIND
CHILL THREAT IS WORTHY ENOUGH TO NOTE IN THE HWO.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD...BUT THE MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE BEYOND
THIS POINT. THE 12Z GFS TRIES TO DEVELOP ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
FROM A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS ANY MOISTURE FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE CWA. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WERE INTRODUCED.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1145 AM EST SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH PRIMARILY A MIX OF SCATTERED MID
DECK AND BKN-OVC CIRRUS ABOVE.

DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TONIGHT WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH WITH MOST PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF KDAN THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER CIGS WILL LOWER ACROSS SOUTHEAST SECTIONS BUT ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS ON SUNDAY PENDING JUST HOW FAR
INLAND A LOBE OF PROGGED DEEPER MOISTURE GETS. ELSEWHERE...MORE OF
A HIGH/MID CANOPY CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
CIGS MAINLY ABOVE 10K FEET. LIGHT WEST TO SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT BUT BEGIN TO TURN NORTHERLY BY EARLY
SUNDAY AND INCREASE OVER THE EAST WHERE GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS COULD
OCCUR ESPCLY AROUND KDAN.

UPPER LOW TO THE NW WILL BE APPROACHING SUNDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE
MOSTLY BETWEEN THE EXITING LOW OFFSHORE AND THIS SYSTEM UNTIL
LATE. THIS MOISTURE COULD BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE WESTERN SLOPE
AREAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OTHERWISE VFR.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

FOR MONDAY INTO MID WEEK...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
A SECOND SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITH AN INFLUX OF VERY COLD AIR AND DEEP UPSLOPE
MOISTURE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING RESULTING IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS IN ADDITION TO LOW CIGS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR AT KBLF/KLWB AND POTENTIAL PERIODS
OF MVFR AT KBCB/KROA. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FLURRIES MAY OCCUR AS FAR EAST AS THE
PIEDMONT WHERE INTERVALS OF VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO OCCUR.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN TO MAINLY VFR LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE POSSIBLY RETURNING TO SUB-VFR AGAIN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK PASSING UPPER
IMPULSE.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JH/PM