Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 02/05/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1024 AM PST WED FEB 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY IN THE
EVENING. DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP REGION-WIDE TOMORROW
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW
RECORD HIGHS MAY EVEN BE SET NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:38 AM PST WEDNESDAY...COOL TEMPERATURES
PERSIST OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH MOST LOCATIONS GENERALLY
IN THE 40S. ONLY A FEW/SCT PASSING HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD
OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM FORECAST TO
IMPACT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE LATEST SHORT-TERM FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTH BAY UNTIL MAINLY
AFTER 4 PM PST AND NOT UNTIL AFTER 7 PM FOR THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY
AREA. IN ADDITION, MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF SAN FRANCISCO WILL
LIKELY ONLY SEE A TRACE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION UP TO ONE-
HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE
BASED ON THE LATEST ANALYSIS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PST WEDNESDAY...CHILLY START TO
THE DAY TODAY THANKS TO FAIRLY LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES IN MANY SPOTS. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
SO FAR FOR THE SHIFT KMUX RADAR HAS REMAINED IN CLEAR AIR MODE
THANKS TO NO PRECIP ECHOES BEING PICKED UP. THAT WILL CHANGE LATER
TODAY AS THE SECOND AND FINAL WEAK SYSTEM FOR THE WEEK MOVES
THROUGH OUR REGION. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR ALONG WITH THE NAM
ARE BOTH IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT RAIN WILL RETURN BACK TO THE
NORTH BAY BY LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN DOWN TO SF BAY REGION BY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE GREATEST OVER
THE NORTH BAY WHERE .2" TO .4" CAN BE EXPECTED. FOR SF BAY REGION
MOST SPOTS WILL LIKELY SEE LESS THAN 1/10" WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN
IN THE MONTEREY BAY AREA. DID LOOK AT VARIOUS CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS AND FEEL THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT OCCUR IN THE CWA.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S IN ALMOST ALL SPOTS.
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD TO THE WEST
COAST ON THURSDAY HELPING TO PUSH THE STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR
NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES -- IN
SOME CASES 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL -- WITH WIDESPREAD MID 60S TO
MID 70S EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN MOST SPOTS. NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT WE COULD EVEN SEE A FEW RECORD HIGHS NEXT
WEEK OR EVEN AN ISOLATED 80 DEGREE HIGH. (AS AN EXAMPLE, SAN JOSE
IS FORECAST TO HIT 72 ON SUNDAY WHICH IS JUST SHORT OF THE CURRENT
RECORD OF 76 SET BACK IN 1963). JUST HOW STRONG WILL THE RIDGE
BE? IF THE ECMWF FORECAST OF 500 MB HEIGHTS AT OAKLAND OF
586-587DM VERIFIES, IT WILL SET THE RECORD FOR THE DAY FOR 500 MB
HEIGHTS AND POTENTIALLY TIE THE MONTHLY RECORD. CURRENTLY DO NOT
SEE A SETUP FOR TULE FOG MOVING INTO OUR REGION, SO CONDITIONS
WILL BE NEAR IDEAL FOR ALL OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. IT WILL FEEL LIKE
SPRING IN FEBRUARY!
LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE FAVORS DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE MONTH.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:23 AM PST WEDNESDAY... PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH
LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONT WILL BRING AREAS
OF MVFR AND LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...
SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE BAY AREA THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR IN THE MONTEREY BAY AREA. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
CURRENTLY... HIGH CLOUDS PRECEDING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE MOVING
OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AOA 6-8K FT AGL. SATELLITE PRODUCTS
SHOWING THIN LAYER OF TULE FOG BANKED ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE
CENTRAL VALLEY BUT OFFSHORE/EAST WINDS ARE TOO LIGHT TO ADVECT
THIS INTO THE EAST BAY.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THIS MORNING WITH INTERMITTENT MVFR AND LIGHT
RAIN POSBL AROUND 00Z...THEN MVFR AND A FEW POST FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FROM AROUND 06Z THROUGH 16Z WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS. CONFIDENCE ON POTENTIAL WIND PROBLEMS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
ARE LOW...BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY AS FRONT APPROACHES.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN BECOME VFR THURSDAY MORNING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR... LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 09:50 AM PST WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE PASSING FRONT WILL BRING OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT THE MOUTH OF
COASTAL GAPS SUCH AS THE GOLDEN GATE...MONTEREY BAY...AND WEST OF
POINT REYES. LARGE...LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THEN SWELL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA AND ITS
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR FROM 3 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: MM/DW
MARINE: MM
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
945 AM PST WED FEB 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY IN THE
EVENING. DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP REGION-WIDE TOMORROW
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW
RECORD HIGHS MAY EVEN BE SET NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:38 AM PST WEDNESDAY...COOL TEMPERATURES
PERSIST OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH MOST LOCATIONS GENERALLY
IN THE 40S. ONLY A FEW/SCT PASSING HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD
OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM FORECAST TO
IMPACT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE LATEST SHORT-TERM FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTH BAY UNTIL MAINLY
AFTER 4 PM PST AND NOT UNTIL AFTER 7 PM FOR THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY
AREA. IN ADDITION, MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF SAN FRANCISCO WILL
LIKELY ONLY SEE A TRACE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION UP TO ONE-
HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE
BASED ON THE LATEST ANALYSIS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PST WEDNESDAY...CHILLY START TO
THE DAY TODAY THANKS TO FAIRLY LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES IN MANY SPOTS. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
SO FAR FOR THE SHIFT KMUX RADAR HAS REMAINED IN CLEAR AIR MODE
THANKS TO NO PRECIP ECHOES BEING PICKED UP. THAT WILL CHANGE LATER
TODAY AS THE SECOND AND FINAL WEAK SYSTEM FOR THE WEEK MOVES
THROUGH OUR REGION. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR ALONG WITH THE NAM
ARE BOTH IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT RAIN WILL RETURN BACK TO THE
NORTH BAY BY LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN DOWN TO SF BAY REGION BY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE GREATEST OVER
THE NORTH BAY WHERE .2" TO .4" CAN BE EXPECTED. FOR SF BAY REGION
MOST SPOTS WILL LIKELY SEE LESS THAN 1/10" WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN
IN THE MONTEREY BAY AREA. DID LOOK AT VARIOUS CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS AND FEEL THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT OCCUR IN THE CWA.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S IN ALMOST ALL SPOTS.
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD TO THE WEST
COAST ON THURSDAY HELPING TO PUSH THE STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR
NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES -- IN
SOME CASES 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL -- WITH WIDESPREAD MID 60S TO
MID 70S EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN MOST SPOTS. NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT WE COULD EVEN SEE A FEW RECORD HIGHS NEXT
WEEK OR EVEN AN ISOLATED 80 DEGREE HIGH. (AS AN EXAMPLE, SAN JOSE
IS FORECAST TO HIT 72 ON SUNDAY WHICH IS JUST SHORT OF THE CURRENT
RECORD OF 76 SET BACK IN 1963). JUST HOW STRONG WILL THE RIDGE
BE? IF THE ECMWF FORECAST OF 500 MB HEIGHTS AT OAKLAND OF
586-587DM VERIFIES, IT WILL SET THE RECORD FOR THE DAY FOR 500 MB
HEIGHTS AND POTENTIALLY TIE THE MONTHLY RECORD. CURRENTLY DO NOT
SEE A SETUP FOR TULE FOG MOVING INTO OUR REGION, SO CONDITIONS
WILL BE NEAR IDEAL FOR ALL OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. IT WILL FEEL LIKE
SPRING IN FEBRUARY!
LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE FAVORS DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE MONTH.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 3:55 AM PST WEDNESDAY... PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH
LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. INTERMITTENT MVFR
POSBL AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH TODAY. RAIN WILL BE
LIGHT.
CURRENTLY... HIGH CLOUDS PRECEDING AN ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARE MOVING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AOA 8-10K FT AGL. SATELLITE
PRODUCTS SHOWING THIN LAYER OF TULE FOG BANKED ALONG THE WEST SIDE
OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY. OFFSHORE/EAST WINDS COULD POTENTIALLY
ADVECT THIS TULE FOG INTO THE EAST BAY... HOWEVER NOT SEEING THIS
YET. INSTEAD... PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS THE
REGION INCLUDING BRIEFLY AT KSQL TO THE SOUTH OF KSFO.
CURRENTLY... THE SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY IS SHOWING THE MOST
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING FOG/LOW CLOUDS INTO THE SUNRISE HOUR GIVEN
LATEST TRENDS.
VICINITY OF KSFO... VFR THIS MORNING WITH INTERMITTENT MVFR POSBL
AT AND AROUND FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAINLY LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS. BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. NEED TO WATCH NEARBY OBS
CLOSELY TODAY AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN POPPING UP BRIEFLY AROUND
THE SOUTH BAY.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR... LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 09:38 AM PST WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE PASSING FRONT WILL BRING OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT THE MOUTH OF
COASTAL GAPS SUCH AS THE GOLDEN GATE...MONTEREY BAY...AND WEST OF
POINT REYES. LARGE...LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THEN SWELL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA AND ITS
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR FROM 3 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: MM
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
403 AM PST WED FEB 3 2016
...LAST ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN TODAY...
...MUCH WARMER WEATHER GOING INTO NEXT WEEK...
.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY IN THE
EVENING. DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW RECORD
HIGHS MAY EVEN BE SET NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PST WEDNESDAY...CHILLY START TO THE
DAY TODAY THANKS TO FAIRLY LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES IN MANY SPOTS. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.
SO FAR FOR THE SHIFT KMUX RADAR HAS REMAINED IN CLEAR AIR MODE
THANKS TO NO PRECIP ECHOES BEING PICKED UP. THAT WILL CHANGE LATER
TODAY AS THE SECOND AND FINAL WEAK SYSTEM FOR THE WEEK MOVES
THROUGH OUR REGION. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR ALONG WITH THE NAM
ARE BOTH IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT RAIN WILL RETURN BACK TO THE
NORTH BAY BY LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN DOWN TO SF BAY REGION BY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE GREATEST OVER
THE NORTH BAY WHERE .2" TO .4" CAN BE EXPECTED. FOR SF BAY REGION
MOST SPOTS WILL LIKELY SEE LESS THAN 1/10" WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN
IN THE MONTEREY BAY AREA. DID LOOK AT VARIOUS CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS AND FEEL THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT OCCUR IN THE CWA.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S IN ALMOST ALL SPOTS.
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD TO THE WEST
COAST ON THURSDAY HELPING TO PUSH THE STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR
NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES -- IN
SOME CASES 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL -- WITH WIDESPREAD MID 60S TO
MID 70S EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN MOST SPOTS. NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT WE COULD EVEN SEE A FEW RECORD HIGHS NEXT
WEEK OR EVEN AN ISOLATED 80 DEGREE HIGH. (AS AN EXAMPLE, SAN JOSE
IS FORECAST TO HIT 72 ON SUNDAY WHICH IS JUST SHORT OF THE CURRENT
RECORD OF 76 SET BACK IN 1963). JUST HOW STRONG WILL THE RIDGE
BE? IF THE ECMWF FORECAST OF 500 MB HEIGHTS AT OAKLAND OF
586-587DM VERIFIES, IT WILL SET THE RECORD FOR THE DAY FOR 500 MB
HEIGHTS AND POTENTIALLY TIE THE MONTHLY RECORD. CURRENTLY DO NOT
SEE A SETUP FOR TULE FOG MOVING INTO OUR REGION, SO CONDITIONS
WILL BE NEAR IDEAL FOR ALL OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. IT WILL FEEL LIKE
SPRING IN FEBRUARY!
LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE FAVORS DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE MONTH.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 3:55 AM PST WEDNESDAY... PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH
LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. INTERMITTENT MVFR
POSBL AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH TODAY. RAIN WILL BE
LIGHT.
CURRENTLY... HIGH CLOUDS PRECEEDING AN ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARE MOVING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AOA 8-10K FT AGL. SATELLITE
PRODUCTS SHOWING THIN LAYER OF TULE FOG BANKED ALONG THE WEST SIDE
OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY. OFFSHORE/EAST WINDS COULD POTENTIALLY
ADVECT THIS TULE FOG INTO THE EAST BAY... HOWEVER NOT SEEING THIS
YET. INSTEAD... PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS THE
REGION INCLUDING BRIEFLY AT KSQL TO THE SOUTH OF KSFO.
CURRENTLY... THE SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY IS SHOWING THE MOST
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING FOG/LOW CLOUDS INTO THE SUNRISE HOUR GIVEN
LATEST TRENDS.
VICINITY OF KSFO... VFR THIS MORNING WITH INTERMITTENT MVFR POSBL
AT AND AROUND FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAINLY LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS. BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. NEED TO WATCH NEARBY OBS
CLOSELY TODAY AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN POPPING UP BRIEFLY AROUND
THE SOUTH BAY.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR... LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 03:49 AM PST WEDNESDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TODAY. WINDS WILL
PREDOMINATELY BE OFFSHORE/SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE AT THE MOUTH OF COASTAL GAPS SUCH AS AROUND THE GOLDEN
GATE...MONTEREY BAY... AND WEST OF POINT REYES. LARGE...LONG
PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
THEN SWELL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA AND ITS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE
WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 8 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
325 AM PST WED FEB 3 2016
...LAST ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN TODAY...
...MUCH WARMER WEATHER GOING INTO NEXT WEEK...
.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY IN THE
EVENING. DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW RECORD
HIGHS MAY EVEN BE SET NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PST WEDNESDAY...CHILLY START TO THE
DAY TODAY THANKS TO FAIRLY LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES IN MANY SPOTS. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.
SO FAR FOR THE SHIFT KMUX RADAR HAS REMAINED IN CLEAR AIR MODE
THANKS TO NO PRECIP ECHOES BEING PICKED UP. THAT WILL CHANGE LATER
TODAY AS THE SECOND AND FINAL WEAK SYSTEM FOR THE WEEK MOVES
THROUGH OUR REGION. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR ALONG WITH THE NAM
ARE BOTH IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT RAIN WILL RETURN BACK TO THE
NORTH BAY BY LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN DOWN TO SF BAY REGION BY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE GREATEST OVER
THE NORTH BAY WHERE .2" TO .4" CAN BE EXPECTED. FOR SF BAY REGION
MOST SPOTS WILL LIKELY SEE LESS THAN 1/10" WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN
IN THE MONTEREY BAY AREA. DID LOOK AT VARIOUS CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS AND FEEL THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT OCCUR IN THE CWA.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S IN ALMOST ALL SPOTS.
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD TO THE WEST
COAST ON THURSDAY HELPING TO PUSH THE STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR
NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES -- IN
SOME CASES 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL -- WITH WIDESPREAD MID 60S TO
MID 70S EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN MOST SPOTS. NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT WE COULD EVEN SEE A FEW RECORD HIGHS NEXT
WEEK OR EVEN AN ISOLATED 80 DEGREE HIGH. (AS AN EXAMPLE, SAN JOSE
IS FORECAST TO HIT 72 ON SUNDAY WHICH IS JUST SHORT OF THE CURRENT
RECORD OF 76 SET BACK IN 1963). JUST HOW STRONG WILL THE RIDGE
BE? IF THE ECMWF FORECAST OF 500 MB HEIGHTS AT OAKLAND OF
586-587DM VERIFIES, IT WILL SET THE RECORD FOR THE DAY FOR 500 MB
HEIGHTS AND POTENTIALLY TIE THE MONTHLY RECORD. CURRENTLY DO NOT
SEE A SETUP FOR TULE FOG MOVING INTO OUR REGION, SO CONDITIONS
WILL BE NEAR IDEAL FOR ALL OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. IT WILL FEEL LIKE
SPRING IN FEBRUARY!
LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE FAVORS DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE MONTH.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:18 PM PST TUESDAY...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING TOWARD THE BAY AREA OUT AHEAD
OF AN EPAC WARM FRONT. THIS WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE BAY AREA
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WITHIN A WEAKENING SURFACE
TROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING CAUSING SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATER IN
THE DAY MAINLY IN THE BAY AREA.
PRESENT PRESSURE GRADIENTS WMC-SFO 1.1 MB AND SAC-SFO 0.6 MB ARE
FORECAST TO STEEPEN A LITTLE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT
E-NE WINDS OVER OUR AREA EXCEPT A LITTLE GUSTY AT TIMES IN THE
NORTH AND EAST BAY MTNS/HILLS. TULE FOG IN THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY
CAN BECOME ADVECTED INTO THE EAST BAY IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN. AT
THE MOMENT GOES SATELLITE LIFR PRODUCT INDICATES PATCHY FOG CONFINED
TO EASTERN ALAMEDA COUNTY...SAN BENITO COUNTY AS WELL AS IN THE
SALINAS VALLEY. MOST PLACES ARE VFR THIS EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE
FOG FORECAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN INCREASING MIXING WINDS
WEDNESDAY SHOULD MIX OUT FOG PATCHES DURING THE DAY EXCEPT
POSSIBLY FAR INLAND VALLEYS WHERE LOWER LEVEL STABILITY PERSISTS.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER MID LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY VERY BRIEFLY RAMP
UP LATE WED AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTH
BAY PER RECENT MODEL FORECASTS. HIGH PRESSURE IS OTHERWISE EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH LATE WEEK AND THIS
WEEKEND.
VICINITY OF KSFO...MAINLY LIGHT NE-E WINDS. BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...WINDS BECOMING SE TONIGHT...MAINLY
LIGHT EXCEPT LOCALLY TO AROUND 10 KNOTS IN THE SALINAS VALLEY.
MAINLY VFR HOWEVER PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE
SALINAS VALLEY.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 9:10 PM PST TUESDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. LARGE...LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THEN SWELL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA AND ITS
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 8 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: CANEPA
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
938 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TO THE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH VERY MILD TEMPERATURES FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY. THE RAIN MAY START AS A LIGHT WINTRY MIX NORTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION BEFORE TURNING TO RAIN BY MID MORNING. IT WILL
ALSO BE BREEZY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS THIS EVENING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. COLDER AIR WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 938 AM EST...SFC LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LIFTING ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WITH A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND WILL BE
HEADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT...STEADY RAIN IS OCCURRING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS. KENX RADAR IS SHOWING SOME
HIGHER RETURNS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...BUT BASED ON BOTH
DUAL POL RADAR PRODUCTS AND MRMS ANALYSIS...IT SEEMS THIS IS
PROBABLY SOME BRIGHT BANDING. STILL...KRME HAS HAD HOURLY
RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH...SO SOME LOCALLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING.
ALTHOUGH THE SNOWPACK IS EXTREMELY LIMITED OVER THE AREA...NOHRSC
ANALYSIS SHOWS UP TO A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...TEMPS ARE ONLY IN THE MID 30S RIGHT
NOW...LIMITING SNOWMELT IN THAT AREA. AS TEMPS RISE LATER
TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT...SNOWMELT WILL COMBINE
WITH THE RAINFALL AND FROZEN GROUND IN PLACE TO CONTRIBUTE TO
SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF ACROSS THE AREA. SEE OUR HYDRO DISCUSSION FOR
HOW WE EXPECT THIS TO IMPACT OUR HSA.
A FEW SPOTS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EAST OF
THE TERRAIN ARE STILL 31-32 DEGREES. AN SPS CONTINUES FOR SOME
HIGHLY LOCALIZED FREEZING RAIN THAT STILL MAY BE
OCCURRING...LEAVING A LIGHT ACCRETION OF ICE. TEMPS SHOULD WARM
ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...ENDING THE
THREAT FOR ANY FREEZING PRECIP.
THE 13Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS STEADY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. BY THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS...STEADY RAINFALL WILL START TO TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST...AS THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT EXITS THE AREA TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND THE SFC COLD FRONT STARTS TO MOVE THROUGH.
ALTHOUGH TEMPS ARE STILL GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S...THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
FOR THIS AFTN TO VERY MILD LEVELS FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. HIGHS LOOK
TO REACH MID 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA...ESP FOR SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA.
E-SE WINDS ARE GUSTY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 30 KTS POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE...S-SE WINDS ARE 10-20 KTS WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER
GUSTS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHEST GUSTS ARE
PROBABLY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN HOURS WHEN THE STRONGEST LLWJ WILL
BE IN PLACE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OCCLUDES IN SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR
IS USHERED INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY AND
DIMINISH AS WELL...BUT STILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MOST AREAS LOOK TO BE PRECIP-FREE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW 30S TO LOW 40S.
A TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOST AREAS SEEING DRY WEATHER
AS HIGHER PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. THERE MAY
BE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...WITH LITTLE TO NO
EFFECT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID/UPPER 40S IN VALLEY AREAS. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER
20S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL TREND TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS AND GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN SETS UP WITH EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER
TROUGHING AND STRONG UPPER IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH THE MEAN UPPER
TROUGH. DURING THE WEEKEND...ONE STRONG UPPER IMPULSE IS FORECASTED
TO TRACK WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION AS SHORT WAVE UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AHEAD OF STRONGER UPPER ENERGY
SETTING UP TO DIVE OUT OF CANADA DURING THE BEGINNING AND MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S...WITH LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
QUITE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA THE BEGINNING TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME
DISAGREEMENTS AS TO WHERE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SETS UP...WHICH IS
KEY TO WHETHER A STRONG UPPER VORTEX TRACKS CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST
OF THE U.S. OR FURTHER OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALSO DETERMINE WHERE AND
WHEN ANY POTENTIAL ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL COULD OCCUR...IF ANY. HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THOSE DETAILS RESULTS IN JUST PUTTING CHANCES FOR
SNOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE MIX WITH
RAIN IN SOUTHERN AREAS...UNTIL DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...SOME 20S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...BUT AGAIN SOME 20S IN
NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH AGAIN 20S
IN NORTHERN AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE APPROACH THIS MORNING AND ITS EXPECTED
TO LIFT TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY THEN BE FOLLOWED BY THE COLD
FRONT...HOWEVER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND
06Z/THURSDAY.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH LIGHT
RAIN BEGINNING BETWEEN 12Z-14Z. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS THE PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE AREA. IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOPED BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN
PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT TOWARD 00Z AND
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD TREND TO MVFR. THE RAIN COULD TAKE
LONGER TO EXIT THE KPOU AND KPSF AREAS SO KEPT VCSH THERE 00Z-06Z
THIS EVENING.
SLEET WITH BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH KGFL AND KPSF...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE
RATHER BRIEF. OTHERWISE RAIN IS EXPECTED.
A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW IS EXPECTED AT 8-12 KT WITH SOME STRONGER
GUSTS...ESP AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE SOME GUSTS COULD REACH 20 KT. BY
THIS EVENING...SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 10
KT...THEN SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 06Z.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE PROBLEMATIC THIS MORNING...AS SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT. WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH AT 30-40 KT OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
THU-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. A WINTRY
MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL
REGION...OTHERWISE RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS TONIGHT WITH COLDER AIR USHERED
BACK IN. AROUND AN INCH TO INCH AND A HALF OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSER
TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...AND
THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.
THE LATEST OFFICIAL NERFC FORECASTS FOR THE MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE
ONLY KAST BRIDGE IN THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND WILLIAMSTOWN IN
THE NRN BERKS BARELY EXCEEDING THEIR RESPECTIVE ALERT STAGES BY A
FEW INCHES. OVERALL SOME 1 TO 2.5 FOOT RISES ARE EXPECTED ON THE
MAIN STEM RIVERS...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES COMBINED WITH RUNOFF OCCURS. ADDED
EFFECTS OF SNOWMELT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL BE MITIGATED
DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS THE REGION.
BEHIND THIS STORM SYSTEM...PRECIP WILL END AND TEMPS WILL TURN
COLDER...ALLOWING THE WATER TO RECEDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. OVERALL...NO WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ038-054-061-
084.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013-014.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...IRL/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
403 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TODAY AND THEN UP INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...SENDING
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ON
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL
JUST OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND LINGER THERE UNTIL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A
DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION BY TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BEFORE 10 AM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AS POTENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION.
SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS WHICH WILL
SLOW PRECIP ARRIVAL FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN FACT MOST OF THE
NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS HIGHER THETA-E VALUES REMAIN SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE AREA. LATEST HRRR...RGEM AND RAP DATA SHOWS PRECIP WILL
BEING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MASS AROUND 12-14Z. HOWEVER BULK OF THE
OTHER GUIDANCE IS SLOWER...AROUND 15Z. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPS
AND WHEN EXACTLY PRECIP WILL MOVE THROUGH...THERE COULD BE A RISK
FOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERKS AND EXTREME
NORTHERN MASS. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON IF THIS WILL OCCUR SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. IN
FACT...TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED STEADY OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND HAVE BEGUN TO RISEN IN A FEW LOCATIONS. AS THE WARM
FRONT APPROACHES...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE OUT OR THE
SOUTHEAST WHICH COULD HELP MOISTEN UP THE LOW LEVELS WITH THE
MARITIME AIR.
TODAY...
OVERVIEW: ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY
AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BY TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A WARM
FRONT THIS MORNING AN A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING. DYNAMIC BLOCKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC APPEARS TO
STALL THE FRONT BY THURSDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL: OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE MORNING
FROM WEST TO EAST. BULK OF THE PRECIP IN THE MORNING WILL REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN MASS OR EVEN NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS MAY KEEP MOST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRY. HOWEVER THE REGION WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND VERY MOIST AIR WILL BE SPILLING INTO THE REGION. THIS MAY
ALLOW FOR FOG AND DRIZZLE...WITH PERHAPS EVEN A FEW SHOWERS DURING
THE LATE MORNING HOURS. BULK OF THE PRECIP HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION BY 18-21Z.
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...ANTICIPATE HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PWATS AROUND 1.3 INCHES...ABOUT 4 TO 6 SD ABOVE
NORMAL...AND A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...3-4 SD ABOVE
NORMAL...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROF TAPPING
INTO GULF MOISTURE...ALL POINT TOWARDS THE POTENTIAL OF A GOOD SLUG
OF RAINFALL DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST RAINFALL AT THIS TIME IS
1 TO 1.5 INCHES. HOWEVER AMOUNTS COULD BE HIGHER AS THIS SYSTEM IS
OVER ACHIEVING WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR...THE GLOBAL MODELS
HAVE BEEN UNDERDONE WITH AMOUNTS IN THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHEAST EARLY
THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 18-00Z.
WIND: 925 MB JET INCREASES BETWEEN 60-70 KTS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LAPSE RATES ARE POOR ACROSS THE REGION
LIMITING ANY MIXING POTENTIAL. SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT SHOWING 50-60
KTS ABOUT 2.5 KFT WITH AN INVERSION. HOWEVER IS THE PROFILE BECOME
MOIST ADIABATIC OR IF SHOWERS/T-STORMS TAP INTO THE LLJ IT COULD MIX
DOWN STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WIND GUSTS COULD REACH BETWEEN 30-40 MPH
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS LOCATION IS
BEST FOR CONVECTION AND EVEN TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO 60F WHICH
COULD INCREASE THE MIXING POTENTIAL A BIT.
TEMPERATURES: LASTLY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. THERE WAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SPOTS HITTING 60F BUT BELIEVE THAT WILL BE TOUGH AS CLOUD
COVER WILL BE THICK AND LIMIT ANY RADIATIONAL HEATING. ALSO APPEARS
THAT THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL OCCUR AFTER 21-00Z AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...APPEARS THAT THE
COLD FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN BY EARLY THURSDAY AM THANKS TO NORTH
ATLANTIC RIDGE.
BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING AROUND 00Z BUT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
OFFSHORE BY 06Z. PRECIP WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.
HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION FOR THUNDER DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL ALSO INCREASE THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS WELL AS BRING DOWN ANY GUSTY WINDS.
LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. IN FACT 925 MB JET STRENGTHENS BETWEEN 60-70 KTS. AGAIN
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG INVERSION EVEN OVER THE WATERS.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...BETWEEN 20-30 MPH.
HOWEVER GUSTS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AFTER 06Z.
FINALLY TEMPERATURES MAY WARM RIGHT AROUND 00-03Z WHEN THE WARMEST
925 MB TEMPS OCCUR. USED A NON-DIURNAL TREND TONIGHT FOR
TEMPERATURES AS CAA WONT TRULY TAKE PLACE UNTIL AFTER 06-09Z.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
LONGWAVE SCALE SHOWS A TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND RIDGE ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST LATE THIS WEEK...ALL SHIFTING EAST OVER THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WHILE
ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA. MEANWHILE MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH A TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY...SWINGING WELL
OFFSHORE AND THEN NORTH INTO NOVA SCOTIA. THE THIRD SHORTWAVE
AMPLIFIES THE MIDWEST TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRINGS THE FLOW
EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS UP THE EAST COAST.
THIS PATTERN SUGGESTS LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH/EAST NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE THURSDAY-FRIDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL STORM MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES COOL BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST.
THE DAILIES...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH THEN CROSSES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND TURNS THE UPPER FLOW WESTERLY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALIGN
WITH AND STALL THE COLD FRONT JUST OFFSHORE UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH. MEANWHILE THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD DURING THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
INDUCE A WAVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT...PUSHING THE PCPN SHIELD BACK
ACROSS EASTERN MASS AND RI. TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART WILL SUPPORT
RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW...BUT COOLING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING MAY BRING A
PERIOD OF SNOW OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW THAT COULD LEAVE A COATING TO AN
INCH.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A CLIPPER LOW ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NORTH. SO EXPECT
A DRY FROPA WITH PATCHY CLOUDS.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
TWO SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC WILL GO FEET-DRY...THE
FIRST TONIGHT AND THE SECOND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE FORMS
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST USA COAST AND THEN CARRIES IT WELL
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. ITS MAIN EFFECT ON NEW ENGLAND WOULD
BE TO COMBINE WITH CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE TO BRING AN EAST FLOW
ONSHORE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME
LIGHT PCPN. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND DIGS A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA BY MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW A PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOW TUESDAY. THIS WOULD BRING PCPN INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
PRIMARILY ON TUESDAY. THE FASTEST MODEL QPF REACHES OUR AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY ON TUESDAY AND THE SLOWER ONSET ON TUESDAY. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD AIR OVER EASTERN CANADA THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR INITIAL SNOW WITH A CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN ANY
CASE...THAT/S A LOT OF DETAILS FOR A SYSTEM STILL OVER THE PACIFIC
OCEAN. BECAUSE IT IS SO FAR OUT IN SPACE AND TIME...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THROUGH 10Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH LOW VSBYS. MOSTLY
RAIN IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER AT THE ONSET COULD SEE -FZRA BETWEEN
12-15Z FOR KORE AND POINTS NW. OTHERWISE...ISOLD TSRA PSBL LATE
WED INTO WED NIGHT ESP ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF RI/MA. SE WIND
GUSTS 25-35 KTS PSBL WED. LLWS IS POSSIBLE DUE TO INVERSION.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIP
COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO IN EITHER DIRECTION OF FORECAST.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIP
COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO IN EITHER DIRECTION OF FORECAST.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE
THURSDAY-FRIDAY... VFR...EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD/ISLANDS/SOUTH
COAST IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY
AND NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
BOTH WIND AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A
STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL HELP SEAS BUILD CLOSE TO
8-10 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. THIS POTENT JET WILL ALSO ALLOW
FOR SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE GUSTS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS ACROSS EASTERN
WATERS. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS
AS WELL AS GUSTS WILL BE 35 KTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SCA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WATERS LIMITING
VSBYS...THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED THUNDER WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS EACH DAY. SEAS 5-7 FEET ON
THE RI WATERS THURSDAY AND THE OUTER WATERS BOTH DAYS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THOSE ROUGH SEAS.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS BELOW 25 KT SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY. WIND SHIFT TO A NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND WITH
GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS BY EVENING. SEAS BELOW 5 FEET BOTH DAYS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE SUNDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR FEB 3RD - 4TH...
BOS...59/1991 - 64/1991
BDL...61/1991 - 64/1991
PVD...60/1991 - 66/1991
ORH...57/1909 - 61/1991
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ231-232-255-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251-254.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
CLIMATE...STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
358 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WED AND UP INTO EASTERN CANADA WED NIGHT...SENDING A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ON
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST
OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND LINGER THERE UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION BY TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
100 AM UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND SURFACE HIGH HAS BEGUN TO MOVE
OFFSHORE AS POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION. SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS WHICH WILL SLOW PRECIP ARRIVAL TIME FOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN FACT MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
AS HIGHER THETA-E VALUES REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA.
LATEST HRRR...RGEM AND RAP DATA SHOWS PRECIP WILL BEING TO MOVE
INTO WESTERN MASS AROUND 12-14Z. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPS THERE
COULD BE A RISK FOR FREEZING RAIN. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON IF
THIS WILL OCCUR SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LIMITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
RISE LATE TONIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE OUT OR THE SOUTHEAST WHICH COULD HELP MOISTEN
UP THE LOW LEVELS WITH THE MARITIME AIR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS STORM...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION.
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN...WILL OVERSPREAD
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT
TIMING OF ONSET...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE
COLDER VALLEYS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES AND NORTHERN
WORCESTER COUNTY. SEE NEAR TERM SECTION FOR MORE ON THIS POTENTIAL.
ANY FREEZING RAIN SHOULD CHANGEOVER TO RAIN QUICKLY AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS BRING IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. EXPECTING 1 TO 1.5 INCHES
OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS AND A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET. MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE WET FOR MOST AREAS.
EXPECT PRECIP TO START TO COME TO AN END ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES
SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY MORNING.
THUNDER...HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER FOR AREAS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS
INDICATE SOME MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
WINDS...THERE IS A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET MOVING OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THIS STORM. WINDS 1-2KFT OFF THE SURFACE
WILL BE 50 TO 60 KTS. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DECENT
INVERSION IN PLACE THAT WILL LIMIT THESE STRONGER GUSTS FROM
REACHING THE SURFACE. FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECTING WINDS TO GUST
UP TO ABOUT 35 MPH WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
HOWEVER...IF SHOWERS OR ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO TAP
INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...WE MAY SEE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN AND
AROUND THOSE STORMS.
TEMPERATURES...QUITE MILD AS THE SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING WARMER AIR
INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE
REGION...DESPITE THE RAIN AND CLOUDS. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL
ACTUALLY BE DURING THE EVENING HOURS JUST PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
LONGWAVE SCALE SHOWS A TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND RIDGE ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST LATE THIS WEEK...ALL SHIFTING EAST OVER THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WHILE
ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA. MEANWHILE MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH A TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY...SWINGING WELL
OFFSHORE AND THEN NORTH INTO NOVA SCOTIA. THE THIRD SHORTWAVE
AMPLIFIES THE MIDWEST TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRINGS THE FLOW
EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS UP THE EAST COAST.
THIS PATTERN SUGGESTS LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH/EAST NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE THURSDAY-FRIDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL STORM MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES COOL BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST.
THE DAILIES...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH THEN CROSSES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND TURNS THE UPPER FLOW WESTERLY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALIGN
WITH AND STALL THE COLD FRONT JUST OFFSHORE UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH. MEANWHILE THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD DURING THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
INDUCE A WAVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT...PUSHING THE PCPN SHIELD BACK
ACROSS EASTERN MASS AND RI. TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART WILL SUPPORT
RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW...BUT COOLING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING MAY BRING A
PERIOD OF SNOW OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW THAT COULD LEAVE A COATING TO AN
INCH.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A CLIPPER LOW ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NORTH. SO EXPECT
A DRY FROPA WITH PATCHY CLOUDS.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
TWO SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC WILL GO FEET-DRY...THE
FIRST TONIGHT AND THE SECOND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE FORMS
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST USA COAST AND THEN CARRIES IT WELL
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. ITS MAIN EFFECT ON NEW ENGLAND WOULD
BE TO COMBINE WITH CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE TO BRING AN EAST FLOW
ONSHORE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME
LIGHT PCPN. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND DIGS A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA BY MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW A PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOW TUESDAY. THIS WOULD BRING PCPN INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
PRIMARILY ON TUESDAY. THE FASTEST MODEL QPF REACHES OUR AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY ON TUESDAY AND THE SLOWER ONSET ON TUESDAY. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD AIR OVER EASTERN CANADA THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR INITIAL SNOW WITH A CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN ANY
CASE...THAT/S A LOT OF DETAILS FOR A SYSTEM STILL OVER THE PACIFIC
OCEAN. BECAUSE IT IS SO FAR OUT IN SPACE AND TIME...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THROUGH 10Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH LOW VSBYS. MOSTLY
RAIN IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER AT THE ONSET COULD SEE -FZRA BETWEEN
12-15Z FOR KORE AND POINTS NW. OTHERWISE...ISOLD TSRA PSBL LATE
WED INTO WED NIGHT ESP ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF RI/MA. SE WIND
GUSTS 25-35 KTS PSBL WED. LLWS IS POSSIBLE DUE TO INVERSION.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIP
COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO IN EITHER DIRECTION OF FORECAST.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIP
COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO IN EITHER DIRECTION OF FORECAST.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE
THURSDAY-FRIDAY... VFR...EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD/ISLANDS/SOUTH
COAST IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY
AND NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE WATERS
WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE DAY WITH GALE FORCE WINDS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN GALE
FORCE WINDS IS ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS WHERE GALE WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS...CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE GALE WATCH FOR THE TIME BEING.
EITHER THE GALES ARE MARGINAL IN THESE AREAS...OR THEY ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO LAST FOR A FEW HOURS. SEAS INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 FEET ON
THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE EASTERN WATERS AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS EACH DAY. SEAS 5-7 FEET ON
THE RI WATERS THURSDAY AND THE OUTER WATERS BOTH DAYS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THOSE ROUGH SEAS.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS BELOW 25 KT SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY. WIND SHIFT TO A NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND WITH
GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS BY EVENING. SEAS BELOW 5 FEET BOTH DAYS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE SUNDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR FEB 3RD - 4TH...
BOS...59/1991 - 64/1991
BDL...61/1991 - 64/1991
PVD...60/1991 - 66/1991
ORH...57/1909 - 61/1991
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ231-232-255-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ250-251-254.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/RLG
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1259 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WED AND UP INTO EASTERN CANADA WED NIGHT...SENDING A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ON
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF
THE COAST THU AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRES TRACKS TO THE EAST OF NEW
ENG THU NIGHT INTO FRI. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
THIS WEEKEND...THEN A COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
100 AM UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND SURFACE HIGH HAS BEGUN TO MOVE
OFFSHORE AS POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION. SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS WHICH WILL SLOW PRECIP ARRIVAL TIME FOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN FACT MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
AS HIGHER THETA-E VALUES REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA.
LATEST HRRR...RGEM AND RAP DATA SHOWS PRECIP WILL BEING TO MOVE
INTO WESTERN MASS AROUND 12-14Z. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPS THERE
COULD BE A RISK FOR FREEZING RAIN. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON IF
THIS WILL OCCUR SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LIMITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
RISE LATE TONIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE OUT OR THE SOUTHEAST WHICH COULD HELP MOISTEN
UP THE LOW LEVELS WITH THE MARITIME AIR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS STORM...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION.
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN...WILL OVERSPREAD
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT
TIMING OF ONSET...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE
COLDER VALLEYS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES AND NORTHERN
WORCESTER COUNTY. SEE NEAR TERM SECTION FOR MORE ON THIS POTENTIAL.
ANY FREEZING RAIN SHOULD CHANGEOVER TO RAIN QUICKLY AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS BRING IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. EXPECTING 1 TO 1.5 INCHES
OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS AND A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET. MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE WET FOR MOST AREAS.
EXPECT PRECIP TO START TO COME TO AN END ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES
SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY MORNING.
THUNDER...HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER FOR AREAS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS
INDICATE SOME MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
WINDS...THERE IS A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET MOVING OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THIS STORM. WINDS 1-2KFT OFF THE SURFACE
WILL BE 50 TO 60 KTS. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DECENT
INVERSION IN PLACE THAT WILL LIMIT THESE STRONGER GUSTS FROM
REACHING THE SURFACE. FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECTING WINDS TO GUST
UP TO ABOUT 35 MPH WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
HOWEVER...IF SHOWERS OR ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO TAP
INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...WE MAY SEE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN AND
AROUND THOSE STORMS.
TEMPERATURES...QUITE MILD AS THE SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING WARMER AIR
INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE
REGION...DESPITE THE RAIN AND CLOUDS. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL
ACTUALLY BE DURING THE EVENING HOURS JUST PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE SE NEW ENG THU
* ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN POSSIBLE THU NIGHT SE NEW ENG CHANGING TO
SNOW IF PRECIP MAKES IT FAR ENOUGH WEST INTO NEW ENG
* DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND
* A COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THURSDAY...
LONGWAVE TROF BACK ACROSS CENTRAL US WITH SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NEW
ENG. COLD FRONT WILL SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS AND LIKELY STALL OFF
THE SE NEW ENG COAST WHICH WILL CONTINUE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS AS DEEP MOISTURE AXIS
REMAINS NEAR THE COAST. OTHERWISE...MODELS SHOW EXCELLENT MID LEVEL
DRYING MOVING INTO W NEW ENG WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PTSUNNY
SKIES FURTHER WEST IN THE INTERIOR. TEMPS STARTING OUT RATHER
MILD...ESPECIALLY SE NEW ENG WHERE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
50S...BUT THERE IS A FAIRLY SHARP LOW LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS SNE
SO EXPECT 40S FURTHER BACK IN THE INTERIOR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
SHARP MID LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH FAIRLY ROBUST
SHORTWAVE LEADING TO A WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE OFFSHORE FRONT THU
NIGHT. THE QUESTION BECOMES TO WHAT EXTENT WILL THIS BACK DEEP
MOISTURE PLUME INTO NEW ENG. ECMWF AND GGEM BRING PRECIP BACK WEST
OF THE I95 CORRIDOR WITH ECMWF A BIT SLOWER AND LINGERING PRECIP
INTO FRI...AND BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO SE NEW ENG AS THE
COLUMN COOLS. GFS FURTHER EAST AND CONFINE PRECIP TO CAPE/ISLANDS.
WE USED A BLEND OF GEFS AND ECMWF EPS WHICH REPRESENTS SOMEWHAT OF A
COMPROMISE. WE WILL INCREASE POPS THU NIGHT ACROSS SE NEW ENG
BRINGING CHC TO SE MA AND RI WITH LIKELY FOR CAPE/ISLANDS. THE
COLUMN IS COOLING FROM THE WEST DURING THU NIGHT SO ANY SHOWERS
WOULD CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF SNOW IF THE PRECIP MAKES IT FAR ENOUGH
WEST. THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR SOME MINOR ACCUM FAR SE MA AND CAPE
COD BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WILL DEPEND ON PRECIP MAKING IT BACK
ACROSS THE REGION. SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY
IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. TREND WILL BE FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS
FRI...ALTHOUGH TIMING IS NOT CERTAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
INTO FRI MORNING IF TIMING IS SLOWER.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
LOOKS MAINLY DRY DURING THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRES IN CONTROL TO THE
SOUTH OF NEW ENG SAT...THEN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE BRINGS A COLD
FRONT INTO NEW ENG SUNDAY...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
COMPLEX PATTERN DEVELOPING AS AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM TROF MOVES
ACROSS THE GT LAKES WHILE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
LIFTS NE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LARGE OCEAN
STORM TRACKING WELL TO THE S OF NEW ENG. MOST OF THE GEFS AND ECMWF
EPS MEMBERS ARE ALSO WELL OFFSHORE BUT THIS IS DAY 6 AND HOW THIS
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROF IS UNCERTAIN SO
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND NORTHERN STREAM TROF PER ECMWF
SOLUTION WHICH SPINS UP ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT COASTAL LOW S OF NEW ENG
NEXT TUE. OBVIOUSLY A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS TIME RANGE BUT
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THROUGH 10Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH LOW VSBYS. MOSTLY
RAIN IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER AT THE ONSET COULD SEE -FZRA BETWEEN
12-15Z FOR KORE AND POINTS NW. OTHERWISE...ISOLD TSRA PSBL LATE
WED INTO WED NIGHT ESP ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF RI/MA. SE WIND
GUSTS 25-35 KTS PSBL WED. LLWS IS POSSIBLE DUE TO INVERSION.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIP
COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO IN EITHER DIRECTION OF FORECAST.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIP
COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO IN EITHER DIRECTION OF FORECAST.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE
THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR IN THE INTERIOR...BUT AREAS
OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE SE NEW ENG
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR INTERIOR. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXTENT OF ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN AND ASSOCD MVFR/IFR BACKING IN
ACROSS SE NEW ENG THU NIGHT WHICH WOULD CHANGE TO SNOW IF PRECIP
MAKES IT FAR ENOUGH WEST...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS FRI.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE WATERS
WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE DAY WITH GALE FORCE WINDS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN GALE
FORCE WINDS IS ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS WHERE GALE WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS...CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE GALE WATCH FOR THE TIME BEING.
EITHER THE GALES ARE MARGINAL IN THESE AREAS...OR THEY ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO LAST FOR A FEW HOURS. SEAS INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 FEET ON
THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE EASTERN WATERS AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE...
THURSDAY...LIGHT W/NW WINDS...BUT SEAS 5-8 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS
IN LINGERING S SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS AND REDUCED VSBYS POSSIBLE
WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD.
THU NIGHT AND FRI...INCREASING NW WINDS TO 20 KT WITH LOW PROB FOR A
FEW G25 KT. SCA SEAS PERSIST OVER OUTER WATERS. VSBYS POSSIBLY
REDUCED IN A PERIOD OF RAIN OVER WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD
THU NIGHT WHICH COULD CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS...IMPROVING FRI.
SATURDAY...INCREASING SW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT DEVELOPING
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SUNDAY...WINDS TURNING NW WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY BELOW SCA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR FEB 3RD - 4TH...
BOS...59/1991 - 64/1991
BDL...61/1991 - 64/1991
PVD...60/1991 - 66/1991
ORH...57/1909 - 61/1991
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
ANZ231>237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ250-251-254.
GALE WATCH FROM 7 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/RLG
CLIMATE...STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
937 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG AN OFFSHORE FRONT TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A STRONG OCEAN
STORM SHOULD TRACK WELL OFFSHORE LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THEN
ANOTHER STORM LOOKS TO REDEVELOP OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER
MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE LOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO INTENSIFY ALONG THE NOW STATIONARY
FRONT AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. FEW CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST WITH THE EVENING UPDATE. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE TRENDED SNOWIER WITH THE LATEST
RUNS. HOWEVER, I HESITATE TO CHANGE THE SNOW AMOUNTS AS MANY
LOCATIONS STILL HAVE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE 32 DEGREES,
MEANING WE`RE STILL SEVERAL HOURS AWAY FROM THE CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW. THUS FOR NOW, WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SNOW AMOUNTS AND WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CONFIGURATION FROM THE 4 PM UPDATE, BUT WILL BE
WATCHING THE TIMING OF THE CHANGE OVER VERY CLOSELY.
TIMING...RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND HAS BEGUN TO
MOVE INTO THE DELAWARE VALLEY. EXPECT THAT IT SHOULD MOVE WEST
THROUGH THE OVER NIGHT HOURS REACHING THE LEHIGH VALLEY DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE TIMING OF THE SNOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
IMPACT PART, IF NOT ALL, OF THE MORNING COMMUTE AND THAT IS WHY WE
HAVE INCLUDED AREAS TO THE WEST OF PHILADELPHIA. IT CERTAINLY
LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A SLOPPY AND SLIPPERY MORNING COMMUTE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
SNOW/RAIN...SNOW SEEMS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH WITH
TEMPERATURES STILL HANGING OUT IN THE 40S LATE THIS EVENING,
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE AS ALL RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT,
AND THEN TRANSITION OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW
DURING THE VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS (AT THIS POINT EXPECT THE
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW TO BE BETWEEN 2 AND 6 AM DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH DEW POINTS FALL). AS THE PRECIPITATION FALLS, IT WILL START
TO COOL THE COLUMN. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE JUST HOW FAST THAT
COLUMN COOLS. PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WILL DEFINITELY PLAY A ROLE
AND AS WE SEE SOME HEAVIER PRECIPITATION FALL, THE COLUMN WILL
COOL FASTER AND WE SHOULD SEE A QUICK CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO
SNOW. THE BEST VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS TO OCCUR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD AND THIS WOULD LEND TO HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF AN ACCUMULATING SNOW. WHILE THE GROUND TEMPS MAY BE
FAIRLY WARM RIGHT NOW, INCREASED PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WILL
ALLOW FOR ALL SURFACES TO ACCUMULATE, EVEN PAVED ROADS.
AMOUNTS WILL VARY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AS YOU MOVE FURTHER INLAND AND
HIGHEST AMOUNTS MORE TOWARDS THE COAST. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
HINTS AT HIGHER TOTALS (THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST) IN EASTERN NEW
JERSEY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE A
WARNING BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS FURTHER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY BE ENDING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE LOW PRESSURE PULLS FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA. MOST
AREAS SHOULD SEE SNOW ENDING BY 10AM WITH SOME OF THE COASTAL
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY SEEING SOME FLAKES THROUGH AROUND NOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND WE
EXPECT THE AREA TO DRY OUT AND REMAIN THAT WAY AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUMMARY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH AN OCEAN STORM LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WHICH SHOULD SLIDE WELL OFFSHORE, THEN QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE TO REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES.
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP INVOLVES A TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THAT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST. A MORE COMPLEX PATTERN THEN EVOLVES
WITH A CLOSED LOW IN CANADA WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY IN THE
SOUTHERN STATES SATURDAY. THE LATTER SHOULD ALLOW A STORM TO DEVELOP
OVER THE WEEKEND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHICH THEN DEEPENS RAPIDLY,
HOWEVER THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE SUCH TO KEEP IT
OFFSHORE AS IT TURNS NORTHEASTWARD. AN IMPRESSIVE TROUGH THEN IN THE
PLAINS MOVES EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
SORT OF REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE ONE TO WATCH GIVEN SUCH
A DEEP INCOMING TROUGH THAT COULD CLOSE OFF INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. HOWEVER, THE INTERACTION WITH THE INITIAL OCEAN STORM COULD
VERY WELL INFLUENCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SECOND STORM. WE USED A
MODEL BLEND WITH CONTINUITY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THEN
BLENDED IN MOSTLY THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS
WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR
NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BACKS MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT BEGINS TO SLIDE NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA, WHICH
WILL RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE SHOULD BE DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING COMBINED WITH LOW DEW POINTS, THEREFORE A COLD NIGHT IS
ANTICIPATED.
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY
SATURDAY BEFORE WEAKENING INTO SUNDAY. OUR REGION LOOKS TO END UP
BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING THE WEEKEND AS A MAIN TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND AND ANOTHER ONE CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THE LATTER SHOULD DRIVE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST DURING SUNDAY WHICH THEN SHOULD GO OUT TO SEA AS IT RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES, ALTHOUGH IT MAY TOSS AT LEAST SOME CLOUDINESS OUR WAY.
THE NORTHERN SYSTEM SHOULD SEND A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA LATER
SUNDAY, HOWEVER THIS FEATURE LOOKS WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED. AS A
RESULT, WE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY ATTM.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO
SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION AS A ROBUST TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND INTO THE EAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN
LOW PRESSURE INTO THE GREAT LAKES, HOWEVER THEN HANDING OFF ENERGY
EASTWARD THAT REDEVELOPS LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE REDEVELOPMENT/TRACK OF THIS STORM MAY
DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE PREVIOUS ONE WHICH
IS MORE OFFSHORE. IN ADDITION, THERE COULD BE A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA TUESDAY WHERE LIFT IS ENHANCED,
HOWEVER THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW
REDEVELOPMENT. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A DECENT COASTAL
STORM WITH COLD AIR COMING INTO PLAY. WHILE THERE IS A SIGNAL IN THE
GUIDANCE REGARDING A STORM, THE TRACK AND INTENSITY IS LESS CERTAIN
AND THAT WILL DETERMINE THE ACTUAL DETAILS /IF ANY/ FOR OUR AREA
WHICH INCLUDES RAIN, SNOW, WIND AND COASTAL IMPACTS. GIVEN THE
VARIABILITY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THIS TIME FRAME.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO BE IN THE EAST, BASICALLY MOVING OVER OUR AREA. THIS WOULD TAKE
ANY COASTAL STORM OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR
GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS. AN ARCTIC FRONT OF SORTS MAY SLIDE
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT
IN SOME CLOUDS AND COLDER AIR WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO ARRIVE DURING THURSDAY FROM THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL CONTINUE AT THE DELAWARE VALLEY SITES (KPHL,
KPNE, KTTN, AND KILG) AND THE COASTAL PLAIN SITES (KMIV AND KACY)
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE INTO
KRDG AND KABE AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIMING OF THE CHANGE OVER TO A RAIN
AND SNOW MIX AND EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW IS UNCERTAIN, BUT AT THIS
POINT, EXPECT TO SEE THE MIX BEGIN BETWEEN 04 AND 06Z, AND THE
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW HAPPEN BETWEEN 06 AND 10Z. GIVEN HOW LATE THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AT KRDG AND KABE, IT MAY BEGIN AND STAY
ALL SNOW. GENERALLY EXPECTING THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
TO BE COINCIDENT WITH THE PERIOD OF ALL SNOW.
FRIDAY...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 15Z ACROSS THE TERMINALS, EXCEPT
FOR KACY AND KMIV WHICH MAY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH 18Z. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD END EARLY WITH SNOW MOVING TO THE EAST THROUGH MID-MORNING.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND 15 TO
20 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS UP NEAR 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS
POSSIBLE, WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATER SUNDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, BECOMING NORTHERLY
SUNDAY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER AS LOW PRESSURE
REDEVELOPS OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS COULD BRING A PERIOD
OF RAIN/SNOW TO THE AREA WHICH WOULD REDUCE THE VISIBILITY. THERE IS
LESS CONFIDENCE THOUGH WITH THIS STORM AS ITS EFFECTS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY THE TRACK AND INTENSITY.
&&
.MARINE...
A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND A SCA HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DELAWARE BAY. GALE GUSTS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
OCEAN WATERS FROM THE PRE DAWN HOURS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTS
ABOVE 25 KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DELAWARE BAY. A FEW GUSTS NEAR
GALE FORCE MAY BE POSSIBLE AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, THOUGH SCA
CONDITIONS ON THE COASTAL WATERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TIME HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO LOWER BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS
IN PLACE. HOWEVER, A POTENTIALLY STRONG OCEAN STORM TO OUR SOUTHEAST
LATER SUNDAY COULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD AND WINDS
TO INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN OFFSHORE STORM TRACKS WELL EAST OF OUR
WATERS INTO MONDAY, WHICH COULD ENHANCE SEAS AND WIND GUSTS. ANOTHER
COASTAL STORM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY COULD RESULT IN GALE
FORCE WINDS GUSTS, HOWEVER THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE STORM WHICH CURRENTLY HAS LOWER CONFIDENCE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
PAZ070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
NJZ008>010-012-015>019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR
NJZ013-014-020>027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
DEZ001.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR
DEZ002>004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
MDZ008-012.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR
MDZ015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-
431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
757 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT WILL BE
LIFTING FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO STAY EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MID LEVELS WERE MOIST BUT LOW-LEVEL DRYING WAS
OCCURRING. RAIN WAS NEAR THE COAST CLOSER TO THE FRONT.
THE HRRR SUGGESTED RAIN MAY REDEVELOP FARTHER INLAND ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WE FORECASTED LOW POPS
BASED ON THE LOW-LEVEL DRYING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST PUSHES EASTWARD. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS
TONIGHT. TWENTY-KNOT WIND GUSTS WERE OCCURRING UPSTREAM THIS
EVENING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD BE TIGHTER IN THE EAST SECTION AND WE
HAVE POSTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE MARION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND TRANSIENT FLAT UPPER
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MUCH COOLER
H85 TEMPS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
DESPITE NEAR FULL SUNSHINE. STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY
AND APPROACH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WHICH WILL HELP TO INCREASE
CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA BECOMES A CLOSED UPPER LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE SC COAST. BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE THE LOW DEVELOPING FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF A SMALL CHANCE POP FOR RAIN MAINLY EAST
OF CAE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BRIEF
COASTAL LOW BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SOME OF THE
ENERGY WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST GIVING
ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PULL IN
COLD POLAR AIR INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S
BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD.
FRONT REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING ALONG THE
COAST. LOW CLOUDS HAVE GENERALLY MOVED EAST OF THE TAF
SITES...HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR TEMPO IFR CIGS AT OGB THRU
02Z. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS.
CURRENTLY WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...HOWEVER THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
BETWEEN 03 AND 05Z WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 22 KNOTS...THEN VEER TO
NORTHERLY AROUND DAYBREAK...FINALLY SUBSIDING TO 8 KNOTS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON. WITH DRIER AIR OVERTAKING THE REGION SKIES
WILL BECOME CLEAR BY 15Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE IN
RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY AT OGB...LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
SCZ036>038.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1138 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 851 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
Low pressure center associated with ongoing strong storm system is
currently near the western Iowa/Missouri border area. An occluded
boundary extends east southeast from the low across the northern
2/3 or so of the forecast area. The weak pressure gradient in the
vicinity of this boundary and associated light winds, coupled with
moisture from today`s rains and a strong low level inversion, has
allowed dense fog to develop. The dense fog has been spreading
east with time behind the convective line that is currently just
east of the I-57 corridor. Have recently expanded Dense Fog
Advisory across all but far SE portion of forecast area to account
for current and expected fog development. As the surface low lifts
slowly northeast overnight, winds will become gusty out of the
southwest and help to dissipate the fog.
Otherwise, once the thin convective line in far eastern portion of
the forecast area departs, the balance of the night should be dry.
West central Illinois may see some light snow/flurries by daybreak
as the deformation zone of the system slides by. But, by and
large, expect any snow to hold off until the morning hours
Wednesday. However, do not expect any accumulation at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
Surface map at 20Z/2 pm showed strong 993 mb low pressure along the
eastern KS/NE border with an occluding front extending through
northern MO into southern IL. Another boundary/warm front was just
south of Peoria and just north of BMI with some fog along and north
of this boundary. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms were
over central IL at mid afternoon mainly east of a Galesburg to St
Louis line and tracking NNE. A narrow band of heavier rains with
some thunder was along I-55 from Springfield to Bloomington.
Meanwhile a dry slot with clearing skies was over central and
southern MO and moving northeast toward SW IL.
Temps ranged from 37F at Galesburg and Lacon where east winds
persisted to 57F along highway 50 at Flora, Lawrenceville and Mount
Carmel airports where se winds were veering SSE. Pressure gradient
has weakened a bit during the day across central IL so ESE winds not
quite as strong ranging from 10-20 mph and gusts of 20-30 mph at mid
afternoon.
The HRRR model has been doing fairly well with convection so far
today and leaned on this model going into this evening. It has the
showers and isolated thunderstorms ending over western CWA late this
afternoon and in eastern IL during early/mid evening with most areas
dry by 9 or 10 pm. SPC still have slight risk of severe storms this
afternoon southeast of Terre Haute to Flora line where 15% risk of
damaging wind gusts and 5% risk of tornadoes and large hail. Better
threat of severe storms is over more unstable airmass in far
southeast IL into KY and sw IN from I-64 south.
Low pressure to track northeast to near Dubuque by 09Z/3 am and into
southeast WI by sunrise Wed. A strong short wave/trof to push into
the IL river valley between 09-12Z Wed (3-6 am Wed) and have slight
chances of light rain or light snow later tonight. Lows late tonight
to range from mid 30s over the IL river valley (33F at Galesburg) to
the lower 40s near the Wabash river (42F at Lawrenceville). SE winds
to turn SW by overnight and range from 8-16 mph overall tonight.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
Tomorrow, the low will be pushing through the Great Lakes region
with a trailing sfc trough that will rotate through northern IL.
This sfc trough will also coincide with the 500mb trough that will
mover through the area. The combination of these two features will
bring a slight chance of light snow or rain to northwestern parts of
the CWA Wed morning. By afternoon all pcpn will have moved off to
the northeast, out of the CWA. Brief high pressure will move through
the area after this weather system moves through, along with the
pattern changing to a long wave trough pattern. This trough pattern
will bring another sfc trough through the area Thursday night, but
there will be a severe lack of moisture, so no pcpn is expected.
Then dry weather will be expected through the rest of the week and
into the the weekend. Temps will hover around normal through the
rest of the week and then will warm to above normal levels for the
weekend.
At the end of the weekend and the beginning of next week a northwest
flow pattern will setup over the area and looks like it may hang
around for an extended period. This northwest flow will allow a
series of clippers to move southeast through the Great Lakes area,
Sunday night through Tuesday. For now, will just keep the slight
chance of pcpn that the blended forecast has. Once the clippers
begin to move through, colder air will be allowed to pour into the
area and bring temps back to below normal.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
Moisture trapped beneath a low level inversion, coupled with weak
winds in the vicinity of an occluded frontal boundary, has
resulted in widespread IFR stratus/fog. The occluded boundary is
finally starting to head to the northeast, so conditions should
improve briefly to VFR during the overnight hours. However, wrap
around moisture on the back side of the departing storm system
will drop CIGs back to MVFR Wednesday morning, which is where they
should stay for the balance of the 06Z TAF valid time. Little or
now snowfall is anticipated with this next area of low clouds. Light
winds in the vicinity of the occluded boundary will become gusty
from the southwest later tonight, and then eventually from the
west.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 3 AM CST Wednesday for ILZ027>031-
036>038-041>046-053>057.
Dense Fog Advisory until 1 AM CST Wednesday for ILZ040-047>052-
061.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1138 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DIMINISHING BUT STILL ANTICIPATING BLOWING
SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. THE ENHANCED MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW BAND IS
QUICKLY FALLING APART ACROSS THE EAST...BUT EXPECT ANOTHER INCH
POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 12Z OVER THE EAST. VISIBILITY WITHIN THE BAND
HAS BEEN LESS THAN A HALF MILE AT TIMES...SO KEPT HEADLINES GOING
THROUGH THE EXPIRATIONS TIME OF 12Z. HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS SNOW BAND MOVING EAST. THE BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS COMBINED
WITH THE HEAVY SNOW PACK OVER CENTRAL TO NORTHERN IOWA WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE SOME SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS THROUGH
18Z BEFORE WINDS SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT SNOW
CHANCES GOING ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AS
SOUNDINGS COOL AND REMAIN SATURATED WITHIN THE DENDRITIC LAYER. SO
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES LIKELY TO CONTINUE...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. OBVIOUSLY ANY ADDITIONAL
FALLING SNOW WITH THE CURRENT SNOW PACK AND WINDS...VISIBILITY
CONCERNS AND TRAVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN HAZARDOUS. THIS IS LIKELY TO
BE HANDLED WITH A WINTER WX ADVISORY ONCE THE WARNINGS EXPIRE AT
12Z THIS MORNING.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016
LONGER TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MEAN
EASTERN TROF AND RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST. THROUGH THE END OF THIS
WORK WEEK...A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL DROP THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST PROVIDING THE BEST THREAT OF ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER.
AS FOR TONIGHT IN IOWA...WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY AS
THERMAL TROF PUSHES EAST OF THE STATE. THIS IS ALSO IN ADVANCE OF
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY. THE
BULK OF FORCING WITH THIS WAVE WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF IOWA
AND MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED. AT MOST...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST INTO THURSDAY
BUT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL. THE NEXT WAVE TO
AFFECT THE STATE WILL TOP THE WESTERN RIDGE AND APPROACH LATER
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. FORCING WILL BE A BIT MORE ROBUST
ACROSS IOWA WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT OVERALL MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED.
THEREFORE...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PCPN IN NORTHERN IOWA ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES...OVERALL PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY MORE WITH
WESTERN RIDGE STRENGTHENING ALLOWING EASTERN TROF TO DEEPEN.
ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THIS DEEPENING TROF DRAGGING
ARCTIC AIR FROM CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL US BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MUCH COLDER AIR IS ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY
ALONG WITH SOME THREAT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY WITH
SURFACE READINGS APPROACHING DENDRITIC GROWTH VALUES. TEMPERATURES
MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT TRANSITIONAL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH BAROCLINIC
ZONE SHIFTING BACK AND FORTH THROUGH THE MID AND LOWER MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY DURING THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...03/18Z
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH 22Z AND
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE THROUGH 03Z. SOME VSBYS
STILL AFFECTED BY BLSN BUT IN GENERAL THE WIND IS CAUSING MORE LOW
LEVEL DRIFTING. REMAINING VSBYS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH 21Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRISK WINDS AFT 04/12Z.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ADAIR-ADAMS-BLACK HAWK-CASS-CLARKE-GRUNDY-JASPER-MADISON-
MARSHALL-POLK-TAMA-UNION-WARREN.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...FAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
354 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DIMINISHING BUT STILL ANTICIPATING BLOWING
SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. THE ENHANCED MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW BAND IS
QUICKLY FALLING APART ACROSS THE EAST...BUT EXPECT ANOTHER INCH
POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 12Z OVER THE EAST. VISIBILITY WITHIN THE BAND
HAS BEEN LESS THAN A HALF MILE AT TIMES...SO KEPT HEADLINES GOING
THROUGH THE EXPIRATIONS TIME OF 12Z. HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS SNOW BAND MOVING EAST. THE BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS COMBINED
WITH THE HEAVY SNOW PACK OVER CENTRAL TO NORTHERN IOWA WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE SOME SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS THROUGH
18Z BEFORE WINDS SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT SNOW
CHANCES GOING ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AS
SOUNDINGS COOL AND REMAIN SATURATED WITHIN THE DENDRITIC LAYER. SO
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES LIKELY TO CONTINUE...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. OBVIOUSLY ANY ADDITIONAL
FALLING SNOW WITH THE CURRENT SNOW PACK AND WINDS...VISIBILITY
CONCERNS AND TRAVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN HAZARDOUS. THIS IS LIKELY TO
BE HANDLED WITH A WINTER WX ADVISORY ONCE THE WARNINGS EXPIRE AT
12Z THIS MORNING.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016
LONGER TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MEAN
EASTERN TROF AND RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST. THROUGH THE END OF THIS
WORK WEEK...A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL DROP THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST PROVIDING THE BEST THREAT OF ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER.
AS FOR TONIGHT IN IOWA...WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY AS
THERMAL TROF PUSHES EAST OF THE STATE. THIS IS ALSO IN ADVANCE OF
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY. THE
BULK OF FORCING WITH THIS WAVE WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF IOWA
AND MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED. AT MOST...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST INTO THURSDAY
BUT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL. THE NEXT WAVE TO
AFFECT THE STATE WILL TOP THE WESTERN RIDGE AND APPROACH LATER
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. FORCING WILL BE A BIT MORE ROBUST
ACROSS IOWA WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT OVERALL MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED.
THEREFORE...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PCPN IN NORTHERN IOWA ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES...OVERALL PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY MORE WITH
WESTERN RIDGE STRENGTHENING ALLOWING EASTERN TROF TO DEEPEN.
ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THIS DEEPENING TROF DRAGGING
ARCTIC AIR FROM CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL US BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MUCH COLDER AIR IS ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY
ALONG WITH SOME THREAT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY WITH
SURFACE READINGS APPROACHING DENDRITIC GROWTH VALUES. TEMPERATURES
MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT TRANSITIONAL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH BAROCLINIC
ZONE SHIFTING BACK AND FORTH THROUGH THE MID AND LOWER MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY DURING THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...03/06Z
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BETWEEN THE
FOG...LOW CEILINGS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SNOW MOVES OUT AND WINDS SLOWLY
SUBSIDE. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXTENT TO WHICH CIGS MAY
CLEAR OUT/RISE ON WEDNESDAY...AND BELIEVE AT LEAST MVFR CIGS WILL
PROBABLY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ADAIR-ADAMS-BLACK HAWK-CASS-CLARKE-GRUNDY-JASPER-MADISON-
MARSHALL-POLK-TAMA-UNION-WARREN.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AUDUBON-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-DALLAS-GUTHRIE-HARDIN-STORY.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR CALHOUN-
CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-SAC-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...LEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
238 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016
AS OF 3 AM CST...2 AM MST...CURRENT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT COMPARED TO WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLOUDY AS SOME STRATUS HAS
SPREAD IN EAST OF HIGHWAY 25. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE TEENS TO LOW
20S BUT A COUPLE LOW SPOTS IN EAST COLORADO ARE REPORTING SINGLE
DIGITS. WINDS ARE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. LATEST WSR-88D
IMAGERY INDICATES NO PRECIPITATION. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
IS SPREADING OVER IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...NOW CENTERED
JUST SOUTHEAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN. ALOFT...NORTHWEST FLOW HAS TAKEN
HOLD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER IDAHO ACCORDING TO LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AND A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE ONLY
HAZARDOUS WEATHER POSSIBLE IS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
TONIGHT FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.
BEGINNING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES...FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTED COLD
TEMPS TODAY WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FORECASTER RATIONALE.
HOWEVER...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE A DIFFERENT STORY. MANY MEMBERS OF
FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGEST A RAPID AND SUBSTANTIAL WARM-UP COMPARED
TO RECENT DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S TO POTENTIALLY LOW
40S. THIS DOES NOT AGREE WITH THE WIDESPREAD SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFIELD
THAT WILL BE AROUND FOR SEVERAL DAYS TO COME. IN ADDITION...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AN INVERSION WILL BE DIFFICULT TO BREAK...
ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. THEREFORE...FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW GUIDANCE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WITH REGARDS TO LOW TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL CONCERNS...A VERY
COLD NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. WITH WIDESPREAD
SNOW COVER...CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD TANK WITH PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. COLDEST SPOTS
WILL BE WHERE WINDS GO CALM...PARTICULARLY IN AREA LOW SPOTS.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN BUT AM CURRENTLY ON THE LOWER END OF THE
GUIDANCE SPECTRUM. WIND SPEEDS MAY NOT DROP AS MUCH AS NEEDED TO
REALIZE FORECAST LOWS. HOWEVER...IF WIND SPEEDS REMAIN A LITTLE
HIGHER AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL READINGS
MAY STILL OCCUR. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF ON A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING FORECAST
OFFICES. IF ONE IS NEEDED...AN ADVISORY WOULD LIKELY COVER LOCATIONS
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 27.
THE PRIMARY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...ALBEIT LIGHT...ARRIVES WITH A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES IN.
IN ADDITION...FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND LIFT SUGGEST SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. ADDED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND
MENTION OF FLURRIES. MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OVER NEBRASKA BUT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME MINOR (LESS THAN ONE HALF
INCH) ACCUMULATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016
NEW MODEL DATA SHOWING THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN AS YESTERDAY. ON
SATURDAY AREA WILL BE UNDER TEMPORARY SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF
ANOTHER NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER MODELS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER
WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN YESTERDAY. PLUS A RATHER STRONG BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND UPPER JET SUPPORT ARE IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME.
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AN ADEQUATE SUPPLY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH NOT AS MUCH MOISTURE AT THE LOW LEVELS. MORE MODELS ARE
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF THAN YESTERDAY. AFTER CONFERRING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...DECIDED WOULD NOT ADD ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AND KEEP THE DRY CONDITIONS THE INIT
GAVE ME. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS IT WILL BE FLURRIES AND CAN AFFORD
TO WAIT A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE INSERTING ANYTHING. REST OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE DRY.
AS ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...IT DEVELOPS INTO A STRONG
AND CLOSED OFF SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. AT
THE SAME TIME...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS SETUP AND LATEST MODEL DATA SUPPORTS
A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AND LINGERING FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
THAT COMBINED WITH A SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFIELD OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
AND EXTENDING WELL TO THE NORTH...SUPPORTS KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES
FROM WARMING UP MUCH. AFTER COLLABORATION...DECIDED TO LOWER THE
TEMPERATURES GIVEN TO ME BY THE CRH INIT. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF COLD
AIR COMING IN BEHIND THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES
MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED MORE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 900 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016
KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 20KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 12KTS BY
08Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z WITH ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED. FROM 17Z-21Z A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA BRINGING SOME GUSTS NEAR 20KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG
WITH SOME CLOUDS FLIRTING WITH MVFR CATEGORY. FROM 22Z THROUGH THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WINDS FALL BELOW 11KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND CLOUDS DISSIPATE LEAVING SKC CONDITIONS.
KMCK...VFR/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 11Z AS
WRAPAROUND CLOUDINESS MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST GUSTING AROUND 22KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE WITH GUSTS
DISSIPATING BY 09Z. FROM 12Z-00Z MODELS HINTING AT IFR CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH WINDS FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10KTS. HAVE A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE IFR CIGS AND
CANT RULE OUT VLIFR CIGS IF THE NAM MODEL IS CORRECT. HRRR HINTS
AT THEM BUT KEEP THEM JUST WEST OF THE TERMINAL. AFTER 01Z JUST A
FEW MID CLOUDS EARLY THEN SKC WITH WINDS FROM THE WEST AROUND
7KTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
157 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND TAKING A NEGATIVE TILT AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES. THE STRONG CIRCULATION IS
EVIDENT BASED ON VIS/IR SATELLITE DATA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. RADAR TRENDS SHOW A SMALL BAND OF
SNOWFALL CONTINUING TO BRING LIGHT SNOW FOR SOME PORTIONS OF EASTERN
COLORADO AND EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS...MAINLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...RADAR REFLECTIVITIES APPEAR TO BE TRENDING
DOWNWARD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
IN THE NEAR TERM UP TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE WINTER STORM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND NEW SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE TO LESSEN.
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON COULD REACH UP TO AN
INCH...BUT LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW COULD OCCUR ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER
UP TO 2 INCHES. RAP MODEL THETA LAPSE RATES/NEGATIVE EPV VALUES
INDICATE AN AREA OF MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH SOME FRONTOGENESIS PRESENT ALONG THE SAME
AXIS AS THE CURRENT RADAR TREND WITH THE SNOW BAND POSITIONED NEAR
THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. A SNOW BAND MOVING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80 ALONG HIGHWAY 283 COULD ALSO BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW UP TO AN
INCH FOR NORTON AND HILL CITY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE LOW
CENTER MOVES EAST ENOUGH TO END THE SNOW THREAT.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS IS THE
BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY THREAT. STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OF 16-18 MB HAS BROUGHT STRONG WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AT TIMES...AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES
NOT HAVE THIS GRADIENT LESSENING FOR THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT
MST (1 AM CST) TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES...DESPITE THERE BEING NO
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. UNLESS
ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY...TRAVEL IS NOT ADVISED.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD STABILIZE AFTER MIDNIGHT MST (1 AM
CST) TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY END THE BLOWING SNOW AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY THREAT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION FROM NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN BETWEEN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND THE MIDDLE TEENS. COLD TEMPERATURES IN
COMBINATION WITH WIND GUSTS WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 10 ABOVE
TO 10 BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016
NEW MODEL DATA SHOWING THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN AS YESTERDAY. ON
SATURDAY AREA WILL BE UNDER TEMPORARY SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF
ANOTHER NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER MODELS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER
WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN YESTERDAY. PLUS A RATHER STRONG BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND UPPER JET SUPPORT ARE IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME.
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AN ADEQUATE SUPPLY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH NOT AS MUCH MOISTURE AT THE LOW LEVELS. MORE MODELS ARE
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF THAN YESTERDAY. AFTER CONFERRING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...DECIDED WOULD NOT ADD ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AND KEEP THE DRY CONDITIONS THE INIT
GAVE ME. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS IT WILL BE FLURRIES AND CAN AFFORD
TO WAIT A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE INSERTING ANYTHING. REST OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE DRY.
AS ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...IT DEVELOPS INTO A STRONG
AND CLOSED OFF SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. AT
THE SAME TIME...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS SETUP AND LATEST MODEL DATA SUPPORTS
A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AND LINGERING FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
THAT COMBINED WITH A SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFIELD OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
AND EXTENDING WELL TO THE NORTH...SUPPORTS KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES
FROM WARMING UP MUCH. AFTER COLLABORATION...DECIDED TO LOWER THE
TEMPERATURES GIVEN TO ME BY THE CRH INIT. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF COLD
AIR COMING IN BEHIND THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES
MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED MORE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 900 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016
KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 20KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 12KTS BY
08Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z WITH ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED. FROM 17Z-21Z A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA BRINGING SOME GUSTS NEAR 20KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG
WITH SOME CLOUDS FLIRTING WITH MVFR CATEGORY. FROM 22Z THROUGH THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WINDS FALL BELOW 11KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND CLOUDS DISSIPATE LEAVING SKC CONDITIONS.
KMCK...VFR/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 11Z AS
WRAPAROUND CLOUDINESS MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST GUSTING AROUND 22KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE WITH GUSTS
DISSIPATING BY 09Z. FROM 12Z-00Z MODELS HINTING AT IFR CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH WINDS FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10KTS. HAVE A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE IFR CIGS AND
CANT RULE OUT VLIFR CIGS IF THE NAM MODEL IS CORRECT. HRRR HINTS
AT THEM BUT KEEP THEM JUST WEST OF THE TERMINAL. AFTER 01Z JUST A
FEW MID CLOUDS EARLY THEN SKC WITH WINDS FROM THE WEST AROUND
7KTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
905 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 510 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016
WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD WARNINGS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR
ANOTHER FEW HOURS BEFORE WINDS START TO SUBSIDE A BIT AND SNOW
COME TO AN END.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND TAKING A NEGATIVE TILT AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES. THE STRONG CIRCULATION IS
EVIDENT BASED ON VIS/IR SATELLITE DATA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. RADAR TRENDS SHOW A SMALL BAND OF
SNOWFALL CONTINUING TO BRING LIGHT SNOW FOR SOME PORTIONS OF EASTERN
COLORADO AND EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS...MAINLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...RADAR REFLECTIVITIES APPEAR TO BE TRENDING
DOWNWARD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
IN THE NEAR TERM UP TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE WINTER STORM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND NEW SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE TO LESSEN.
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON COULD REACH UP TO AN
INCH...BUT LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW COULD OCCUR ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER
UP TO 2 INCHES. RAP MODEL THETA LAPSE RATES/NEGATIVE EPV VALUES
INDICATE AN AREA OF MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH SOME FRONTOGENESIS PRESENT ALONG THE SAME
AXIS AS THE CURRENT RADAR TREND WITH THE SNOW BAND POSITIONED NEAR
THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. A SNOW BAND MOVING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80 ALONG HIGHWAY 283 COULD ALSO BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW UP TO AN
INCH FOR NORTON AND HILL CITY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE LOW
CENTER MOVES EAST ENOUGH TO END THE SNOW THREAT.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS IS THE
BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY THREAT. STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OF 16-18 MB HAS BROUGHT STRONG WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AT TIMES...AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES
NOT HAVE THIS GRADIENT LESSENING FOR THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT
MST (1 AM CST) TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES...DESPITE THERE BEING NO
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. UNLESS
ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY...TRAVEL IS NOT ADVISED.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD STABILIZE AFTER MIDNIGHT MST (1 AM
CST) TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY END THE BLOWING SNOW AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY THREAT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION FROM NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN BETWEEN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND THE MIDDLE TEENS. COLD TEMPERATURES IN
COMBINATION WITH WIND GUSTS WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 10 ABOVE
TO 10 BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016
STRONG UPPER LOW TRANSITIONS EAST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LARGE SCALE RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE
WESTERN US RESULTING IN A SHARP N-NW FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN MAY SUPPORT QUICK SHOTS OF
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. OVERALL CHANCES OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THESE PERIODS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH A
PREDOMINANTLY DRY FORECAST. THIS IS DUE TO EITHER DEEPER DRY AIR
MASS BETWEEN CLIPPERS OR LACK OF CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS.
TEMPERATURES ARE PARTICULARLY TRICKY AS THIS PATTERN WOULD NORMALLY
SUPPORT A TREND TOWARDS SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER WITH THE
ONGOING SNOW EVENT AND AT LEAST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA
RECEIVING 10" OR MORE OF SNOW HIGH TEMPERATURES IN PARTICULAR ARE
LIKELY GOING TO BE LOWER THAN MODELS INDICATE. I TRENDED ALL HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN AND UNDERCUT ALL GUIDANCE THROUGH THESE PERIODS.
SNOW WILL ALSO AID IN RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE NIGHT...AND
ASSUMING WINDS REMAIN LIGHT (TO PREVENT LOW LEVEL MIXING) MODELS MAY
HAVE A WARM BIAS ON LOWS.
REGARDING WIND CHILLS WED NIGHT/THU MORNING...THE AIR MASS AND
ORIENTATION OF THE WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT MIGHT ACTUALLY LEAD TO MORE
MIXING WHICH COULD OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF SNOW/CLEARING SKIES AND
RESULTING WIND CHILLS MAY NOT ACTUALLY REACH -15F (ADVISORY). IT IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR -10 TO -20F WIND CHILLS...BUT I THINK THIS
MAY BE A LOCALIZED THREAT. WITH ONGOING HAZARDS THERE ARE NO CURRENT
PLANS FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 900 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016
KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 20KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 12KTS BY
08Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z WITH ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED. FROM 17Z-21Z A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA BRINGING SOME GUSTS NEAR 20KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG
WITH SOME CLOUDS FLIRTING WITH MVFR CATEGORY. FROM 22Z THROUGH THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WINDS FALL BELOW 11KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND CLOUDS DISSIPATE LEAVING SKC CONDITIONS.
KMCK...VFR/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 11Z AS
WRAPAROUND CLOUDINESS MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST GUSTING AROUND 22KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE WITH GUSTS
DISSIPATING BY 09Z. FROM 12Z-00Z MODELS HINTING AT IFR CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH WINDS FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10KTS. HAVE A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE IFR CIGS AND
CANT RULE OUT VLIFR CIGS IF THE NAM MODEL IS CORRECT. HRRR HINTS
AT THEM BUT KEEP THEM JUST WEST OF THE TERMINAL. AFTER 01Z JUST A
FEW MID CLOUDS EARLY THEN SKC WITH WINDS FROM THE WEST AROUND
7KTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
305 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016
CLOUDS QUICKLY CLEARED OUT BEHIND THE FRONT EARLIER TODAY AS DRY
AIR FILTERED INTO THE REGION. THANKS TO PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...HIGHS ARE TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL TAKE A TUMBLE TO NEAR FREEZING OR JUST
BELOW...EVEN WITH LLVL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE
LLVL MOISTURE WILL GET TRAPPED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT
AND MORNING PERIOD BEFORE CLEARING OUT SOMETIME IN THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST...USHERING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWING TOMORROW WITH HIGHS
ONLY NIPPING AT THE 40 DEGREE MARK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS
BUILDING INTO THE COMMONWEALTH THURSDAY EVENING MAKING FOR A
CHILLY NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 20 DEGREES. A SUNNY
AND SEASONABLE DAY IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016
THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE EXTENDED TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. THEY ALL STILL SHIFT
THE CURRENT INBOUND TROUGH EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO FRIDAY
WITH A PERIOD OF BRIEF RIDGING TO FOLLOW INTO SATURDAY. THEY ARE
NOW BETTER ALIGNED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND ALONG THE GULF COAST DURING THE HEART
OF THE WEEKEND. WITH THIS FEATURE...THE GFS IS STILL SLIGHTLY
DEEPER AND FASTER THAN THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELS. THE SYSTEM
IS ALSO MOSTLY SEPARATED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM IN ALL MODELS.
THIS WAVE GOES BY TO THE SOUTH OF KENTUCKY AND DEEPENS IN THE GFS
AND ECMWF AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...A DEEPER TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...CARVING OUT A NEARLY CLOSED LOW JUST
TO OUR WEST BY MONDAY MORNING. WITH PRETTY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
THIS DEVELOPMENT THEN ROLLS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER MONDAY
CRASHING OUR HEIGHTS AND POTENTIALLY SETTING UP AS A VERY DEEP
UPPER LEVEL LOW ABOVE KENTUCKY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT WILL HELP TO SLOWLY BUILD SOME CONFIDENCE IN THIS MORE
SIGNIFICANT EVOLUTION AS WELL AS A BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MODERATING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
HELPING TO DRY OUT THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WEAK WEATHER MAKER
PASSES TO OUR SOUTH AND OUR NEXT ONE STARTS TO CONSOLIDATE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THINGS WILL START TO GET INTERESTING ON MONDAY
AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NORTHWEST SYSTEM STARTS TO DEEPEN AND
SPREAD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
LEVELS WOULD EXPECT TO SEE THIS COOL THE COLUMN OVER KENTUCKY AND
CHANGE ANY LIGHT PCPN OVER TO SNOW BY TUESDAY MORNING. UNDER THIS
SCENARIO...BASED ON A COMBINATION OF THE GFS AND ECMWF...WE WOULD
SEE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE IN THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
CURRENTLY NEITHER MODEL SOLUTION LOOKS ALL TOO REALISTIC AS ANY
SFC DEVELOPMENT WOULD TEND TO FAVOR A JUMP TO THE COAST OR JUST
SPINNING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE
SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE. LOOK FOR FURTHER REFINEMENT AND
DEFINITION FOR THIS SYSTEM FROM THE MODELS WITH TIME. FOR NOW...
WILL PUSH MID RANGE CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WHILE ALSO INTRODUCING THE SYSTEM IN THE HWO AS ONE THAT
HAS POTENTIAL TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO AT LEAST PARTS OF THE
AREA.
ADJUSTED THE GRIDS FROM THE CR INIT MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR SMALL TO
MODERATE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. ALSO TWEAKED THE POP GRIDS LATER
IN THE PERIOD TO REFLECT SLOWLY GROWING CONFIDENCE IN A COMPLEX
WINTRY FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016
THE RAIN...ALONG WITH MOST OF THE CLOUDS HAVE EXITED THE REGION TO
THE EAST AS DRIER AIR QUICKLY MOVED IN. THIS HAS ALLOWED
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS ALL TAF SITES WITH SOME
SCATTERED CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WITH
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES BY...POSSIBLY PRODUCING A
FEW FLURRIES. CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE
REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
25KT POSSIBLE. BY TONIGHT...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE...ALLOWING FOR
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JVM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
300 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016
.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EST Wed Feb 3 2016
Main forecast concerns in the short term are sprinkles/clouds this
evening and temperatures. Overall, relatively benign weather in the
short term.
Stratus deck upstream associated with the advancing upper trough
axis will swing through southern Indiana and central Kentucky late
this afternoon and into the evening hours. 12z ILX sounding and HRRR
soundings for the area this evening show this stratus to be about 50
to maybe 100 mb thick and with weak lift present this evening, there
could be a few sprinkles across southern Indiana and north central
Kentucky. HRRR simulated reflectivity has been consistent showing a
thin band over the area between 4 and 10p, so have maintained slight
chance of sprinkles in the forecast. Winds will remain gusty to near
20 to perhaps 25 mph at times through the evening as well with
temperatures falling into the mid/upper 30s.
Surface high pressure moves across the area Thursday and Thursday
night, setting up a cool but dry day. Plan on highs in the upper 30s
to around 40 degrees. We`ll have some morning stratus around but as
the high advances east, this should erode and push east giving way
to some sun by afternoon. Thursday night lows look to fall into the
mid 20s with mostly clear skies and lighter winds.
.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 250 PM EST Wed Feb 3 2016
The main forecast concern in the long term period is precipitation
chances and temperatures next week.
Friday through the weekend the region will be under the influence of
high pressure at the surface and zonal flow aloft. A couple weather
systems look to pass well south and north of the area, but southern
Indiana and central Kentucky will generally see seasonal
temperatures and dry conditions.
By late Sunday night into Monday, a surface low and anomalously deep
upper trough looks to swing through the Upper Midwest and Great
Lakes. This will spill colder air down into the area and chances for
precipitation. Depending on temperatures, rain may mix with or
changeover to snow Monday. As the upper trough hangs overhead and
more cold air arrives Monday night and Tuesday, temperatures would
be cold enough to support all snow. The GFS 850 mb temperatures are
considerably colder than the ECMWF and GEM 3.12z solutions. A model
consensus trended downward from the previous forecast, with highs
Tuesday and Wednesday in the mid 20s to low 30s and morning
temperatures in the teens. This may trend further down if the GFS
solutions end up verifying. Precipitation chances were brought up
into the 30 to 50 percent range Monday through Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1217 PM EST Wed Feb 3 2016
Currently, the TAF sites are in the dry slot in the post frontal
wake. Mainly clear skies were noted and VFR conditions are expected
through the afternoon hours. Main forecast issue will be surface
winds. Gusty southwest winds at 15-20kts and gusts up 25 kts at
KBWG and up to 30-35kts at KSDF/KLEX will be possible...resulting in
cross winds on the parallel runways at KSDF.
Shield of low clouds to the northwest will continue to move
southeastward and into KSDF/KBWG by 03/21-22Z and then into KLEX by
04/00Z or so. Ceilings this evening look to remain in the VFR
category with heights around 5Kft AGL. Surface winds will decrease
with the arrival of the lower cloudiness in the 03/21-22Z time
frame. We expect winds to back to the west and speeds should
decrease into the 8-12kt range and then into the 6-8kt range for the
overnight period.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........ZT
Aviation..........MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1152 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
.AVIATION...
DRIER AIR IS MAKING A PUSH THROUGH SE TX AND SW LA THIS EVE AND
LOOKS TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH S-CNTRL LA. ARA THIS IS IN THE BAND
OF STORMS MOVING OUT OF THE GULF AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONT
INTO THE OVRNGHT HRS. ARA SHLD CLR TWRDS SR. LFT IS ON THE EDGE
AND LOOKS TO IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
&&
K. KUYPER
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/
DISCUSSION...
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG THE
VERY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER ACADIANA INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2-3 INCHES FROM ST. LANDRY...LAFAYETTE...AND
VERMILION PARISHES SO FAR...WITH ANOTHER 2-3 INCHES POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS. THE CURRENT TRENDS...AND 00Z NAM12 &
LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE CONTINUED SLOWING...ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THIS AREA SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER ACADIANA
THROUGH 4 AM. ADJUSTED POPS AND SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY IN
THE FORECAST.
DML
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 716 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/
DISCUSSION...
TOR WATCH #10 ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM...AS THREAT HAS SHIFTED TO
THE EAST. HOWEVER...FRONTAL PROGRESSION HAS SLOWED UP A BIT...WITH
THE SHRA/TSRA NOW SHOWING SOME TRAINING TENDENCIES OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO SC LA. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ONLY SHOWING ABOUT 1 INCH
WITH ISO AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES IN ST LANDRY PARISH SO FAR...BUT MAY
PICK UP ANOTHER ISOLATED 1-2 INCHES BEFORE ENDING FROM W TO EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS...ADJUSTED EVENING AND EARLY MORNING POPS A
BIT...BUT STILL EXPECTED TO SEE FASTER PROGRESSION AFTER MIDNIGHT
ONCE THE UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES FURTHER EAST WITH THE COLD SFC HIGH
BUILDING SE WITH CONTINUED COOLER AND DRIER AIR.
DML
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/
AVIATION...A COLD FRONT NOW APPROACHING ACADIANA WILL MAINTAIN A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KEEPING
TEMPO GROUPS FOR ARA AND LFT FOR IFR/MVFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM RAIN AND BR. PRECIP HAS ENDED AT
AEX...LCH AND BPT. CEILINGS GENERALLY WITHIN VFR AT THESE
TERMINALS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING...AND WILL
BE CLEARING ACADIANA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/
DISCUSSION...
LEADING EDGE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM/DRY LINE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
FROM JUST EAST OF ESLER FIELD TO CAMERON...AND MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW FOR ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IN ACADIANA...TO WORK WITH SOME DECENT INSTABILITY
(TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70F) TO BECOME
SURFACE BASED AND ON THE STRONG SIDE...ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE BECOMING
MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH HEIGHT OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LESSENING
THE SHEAR.
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WORK THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY GRADUALLY ENDING AS IT
PASSES. SECONDARY SURGE OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO MOVE DOWN ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST AREA. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...A LIGHT FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 CORRIDOR.
A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO FORM OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
ON LATE FRIDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE GULF DURING THE WEEKEND. STILL
A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS FOR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH TRENDS SEEM
TO BE ON THE DRIER SIDE AND IF THIS CONTINUES...MAY BE ABLE TO
TAKE OUT POPS ALTHOUGH AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND...WHICH
WOULD BE GOOD NEWS FOR MARDI GRAS ACTIVITIES. A COOL BUT DRY
FORECAST IS THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR BOTH LUNDI GRAS AND MARDI
GRAS.
RUA
MARINE...
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL THEN PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD AIR MASS
BEGINS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR DURING THIS TIME. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH
WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY.
RUA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 44 59 34 55 / 40 0 0 0
LCH 47 63 37 57 / 40 0 0 0
LFT 51 64 38 56 / 70 10 0 0
BPT 46 63 37 58 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ033-043>045-
052>055.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
1031 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
.UPDATE...
A SHORT TERM HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WHERE ANY LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS TEMPORARILY STALL AND
TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO EXPERIENCE
HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS FROM EAST OF
LAFAYETTE AND NEAR MORGAN CITY TO NEAR BATON ROUGE AND SOME OF THE
RIVER PARISHES SOUTHEAST OF BATON ROUGE. THE COLD FRONT IS MAKING
ITS PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS INDICATE THE MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL START TO ACCELERATE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF COAST. WHILE THERE HAS STILL BEEN NO REPORTS OF
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORECAST AREA...THE MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK
CONTINUES WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND SLIGHT INSTABILITY IN PLACE
TO SUPPORT THE THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH BOWING
THUNDERSTORM SEGMENTS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. 22/TD
&&
.MARINE...
HAD TO REISSUE A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUNDS AND
COASTAL WATERS NEAR SOUTHWEST PASS AND OUT 20 NAUTICAL MILES DUE
TO THE PERSISTENCE OF FOG OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI SOUND /NEAR
THE MISSISSIPPI COAST/ AND RECENT DEVELOPMENT NEAR LOWER
PLAQUEMINES PARISH. 22/TD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 803 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/
UPDATE...
AREA RADARS INDICATED MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND A FEW OCCASIONALLY
POTENT THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING ACROSS AREAS JUST WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TO THE FAR NORTHWEST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA IN EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA NORTHWEST OF BATON
ROUGE INTO FAR SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. PREVIOUS SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION IS STILL VALID WITH REGARDS TO TRENDS AND WEATHER
CONCERNS TONIGHT...SO THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO DELAY SLIGHTLY THE
ONSET OF HIGHER CHANCES/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE NEW
TORNADO WATCH 12 AREA WHICH EXTENDS NORTH FROM AREAS JUST NORTH OF
METRO BATON ROUGE AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN INTO MISSISSIPPI.
HOWEVER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK CANNOT BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE
INCLUDING BATON ROUGE THROUGH ABOUT 10 PM...AND SOUTHSHORE METRO
NEW ORLEANS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TO SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
THE LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND WRF/S
APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AND INDICATING A
BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING EAST NEAR I-55 AROUND
MIDNIGHT...NORTH AND SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN MIDNIGHT TO 3
AM...AND THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST 1 OR 2 AM TO ABOUT 5 AM. THE
MAIN FEATURES ARE SUPPORTING SOME SEVERE RISK INTO THE NIGHT ARE
THE STILL WARM AND HUMID SURFACE...LIMITED MARINE LAYER
STABILIZATION...STRONG SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...AND A SERIES OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL SPEED
MAXIMA THAT COULD STILL HELP TO ENERGIZE BOTH INDIVIDUAL AND LINES
OF THUNDERSTORMS. 22/TD
MARINE...
CONDITIONS RANGE FROM SOLID SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION /SCEC/ TO
BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ WITH 15 TO 20 KNOTS
SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EXTENDED SCEC THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT
ACROSS ALL WATERS...AND MARINERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT A LINE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. 22/TD
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....ORANGE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
MONITORING DENSE FOG TRENDS ALONG SOME NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS.
SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/
SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
SUCCESSFUL BALLOON LAUNCH ON A GUSTY, MILD AND HUMID EVENING.
PRECIP FREE AT LEAST HELPED BALLOON REACH DESIRED ASCENSION RATE
DESPITE STRONG SSW-SW WINDS FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 41000 FT.
SLIGHT DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR IN PLACE FOR KLIX THROUGHOUT
THE SOUNDING. THE CONDITIONS WERE SIMILAR TO THE 18Z SOUNDING
REQUESTED BUT WERE MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE. 00Z LAUNCH HAD MOIST
LOW LEVELS WITH SEVERAL LAYERS OF CLOUD COVER IN THE AREA.
REFLECTED IN SOUNDING...1700 FT, 8500 FT AND 24800 FT. PRECIP
WATER 1.49 INCHES. LIFTED INDEX REPORTING -6. CAPE IS AT 856 J/KG
AND DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS REACHED 79F. HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY WITH THIS SETUP. EARLIER STORMS THAT DEVELOPED NEAR KLIX
AND MOVED NORTHWARD SHOWED ROTATION WHICH RESULTED IN A TORNADO
WATCH ISSUED BY SPC FOR THE KLIX FORECAST AREA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/
SHORT TERM...SO FAR SO GOOD AS STORMS HAVE BEEN BEHAVING OVER OUR
CWA BUT A FEW STORMS HAVE LED TO DAMAGE IN EAST CENTRAL MS THIS
AFTERNOON FROM TORNADOES. TORNADO WATCH 10 REMAINS IN EFFECT TILL
7PM TONIGHT.
MAIN CONCERN IS THE SEVERE THREAT TODAY AND TONIGHT. CURRENT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WRN HALF OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO
THE NE. OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA FROM NOW THROUGH 03Z WILL BE
THE BEST ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE FOR THESE CELLS TO BECOME SEVERE AND
POSE A DECENT TORNADO RISK. BEST LL CONVERGENCE...HIGHEST
INSTABILITY...GOOD LL SHEAR...AND INCREASING LIFT ALOFT WILL LINE UP
DURING THIS TIME. AFTER THAT EXPECTED A LINE OF SHRA AND TSRA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA. BETTER
FORCING...DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND THE COLD FRONT COULD LEAD TO
SQUALLINE DEVELOPING WITH A FEW STORMS SEVERE MAINLY POSING A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ALSO CAN NOT RULE OUT QLCS TYPE TORNADIC
ACTIVITY WITH THIS LINE.
SOMETHING ELSE THAT HASNT REALLY BEEN TALKED MUCH ABOUT IS
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN. THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH WHICH IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED FROM WEST OF MCB TO NEAR LFT IS NOT MOVING AND STORMS
CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG THIS BNDRY. WITH AN ALREADY SATURATED
ENVIRONMENT THIS COULD EASILY DROP A FEW INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH THE
EVNG AND IF SITTING OVER THE RIGHT PLACES COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCAL
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.
TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THU BUT COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WED. /CAB/
LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST CONTINUES TO BE RATHER
DIFFICULT WITH VERY LOW CONFIDENCE. MDL CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY
LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED. THE ONLY THING THAT LOOKS LIKELY TO
OCCUR IS THAT TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MARDI
GRAS. AS FOR RAIN CHANCES LATEST THINKING IS THAT WE COULD REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY BUT WILL STILL HOLD ONTO SMALL RAIN CHANCES FOR SUN AS A
S/W-CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND COULD SQUEEZE OUT
SOME RAIN FOR SUNDAY. /CAB/
AVIATION...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT STRONG TO STORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT AND EXPECT PERIODS OF LIFR WITH HEAVY STORMS. WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT HAVE BEEN ELEVATED AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE. A WINDS
SHIFT OVERNIGHT TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA LATER ON THIS EVENING. THE CENTRAL PORTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
FOR THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST BY DAYBREAK. WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING
SHOULD BE ELEVATED FROM THE NORTHWEST. 13/MH
MARINE...FOG HAS BEEN AN ISSUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS
EAST OF THE MS RIVER AND EVEN THOUGH IT HAS IMPROVED SOME EXPECT SEA
FOG TO SET BACK IN FOR A SHORT TIME THIS EVNG IN THOSE SAME PLACES.
ONCE MORE RAIN AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES FOG SHOULD IMPROVE. GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT REMAINS TIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR WINDS OF 15
TO 20 KTS BUT SHOULD RELAX SOME AS WE APPROACH MIDNIGHT. BY WED
MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS BUT WINDS WILL
NOT QUITE RESPOND UNTIL MUCH DRIER AIR AND CAA TAKES PLACE WED
NIGHT. AS A RESULT...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BEGINNING WED EVNG AND PERSISTING THROUGH FRI
MORNING. /CAB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 51 62 37 53 / 100 10 10 0
BTR 52 64 39 55 / 90 10 10 0
ASD 57 64 42 56 / 90 20 10 0
MSY 57 64 45 55 / 90 20 10 0
GPT 59 64 43 56 / 100 30 10 0
PQL 60 65 44 56 / 100 40 10 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ532-536-538-
552-555.
MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ536-538-552-
555.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
321 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW POTENT SHRTWV
LIFTING NEWD INTO THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH BAND OF HEAVY PCPN
IN THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT EXTENDING FM NEBRASKA INTO WI SHIFTING N
INTO THE SRN CWA AS DYNAMIC FORCING/H85-7 FGEN/UPR DVGC IN LEFT EXIT
OF SUPPORTING H3 JET STREAK AND RIGHT ENTRANCE OF ANOTHER JET STREAK
OVER SE CANADA IS FINALLY OVERCOMING DRY AIR SHOWN BTWN H85-7 ON THE
LOCAL 12Z RAOBS. 00Z-12Z 12HR H5 HGT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WERE AS GREAT AS 200M AT DODGE CITY KS...AND THE
ACCOMPANYING STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING HAS CAUSED SOME LTNG ON THE SRN
EDGE OF THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS AS FAR N AS SCENTRAL WI. SOME
LOCATIONS IN WI HAVE SEEN SN FALL AT THE RATE OF 2 INCHES/HR THIS
AFTN. DRY SLOTTING ON THE ACYC SIDE OF THE UPR LO TRACK IS PUSHING
INTO SRN MN/WI. THIS UPR LO APPEARS TO BE TRACKING FARTHER W THAN
EXPECTED.
FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS ON ONGOING HEADLINES ASSOCIATED WITH
APRCHG VIGOROUS SHRTWV AND IMPACT OF DRY SLOTTING ON SN TOTALS/MIX
WITH FZDZ.
LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT...SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD TOWARD THE UPR LKS IS FCST
TO WEAKEN A BIT AS IT REACHES NW WI AT 12Z WED. AREA OF ENHANCED UPR
DVGC/H85-7 FGEN OVER CCB AND UNDER SHARP DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC
AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWV WL BRING A PERIOD OF SOME MDT/HEAVY SN TO
MAINLY THE E 2/3 OF THE CWA THIS EVNG. H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FCST UP
TO 4 G/KG OVER THE SE CWA WL ALLOW ABOUT 6 INCHES OF WET SN TO FALL
OVER THE SE CWA BEFORE DRY SLOTTING ON THE ERN FLANK OF APRCHG H5-7
LO CAUSES THE SN TO DIMINISH AS EARLY AS LATE EVNG-MIDNGT AT
MENOMINEE. ALTHOUGH THE SPECIFIC HUMIDITY IS FCST TO BE LOWER OVER
THE W /ABOUT 2 G/KG/...FCST SN/WATER RATIOS FCST AS HI AS 20-25:1
THIS EVNG AND MORE PROLONGED DEEPER MSTR AWAY FM MID LVL DRY
SLOTTING WL ALLOW SIMILAR OVERNGT SN TOTALS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
FAR W NEAR THE PORCUPINE MTNS...WHERE A MORE UPSLOPE CYC NNE FLOW WL
BE THE RULE OVERNGT AND ADD SOME LK ENHANCEMENT WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR -
10C. SINCE THE KEWEENAW WL BE IMPACTED BY THIS MORE PERSISTENT
DEEPER RH AND THE LATEST WPC SN FCST SHOWS A MAXIMUM OVER THE WRN
CWA WITH SHIFT OF THE TRACK OF THE UPR LO TO THE W...OPTED TO
UPGRADE ADVY FOR THAT AREA TO A WARNING. THE 12Z NAM IS QUITE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DRY SLOTTING...SHOWING SOME MID LVL DRYING
IMPACTING THE AREA FM IRON RIVER TO THE HURON MTNS OVERNGT. ALTHOUGH
THE SHRTWV IS FCST TO WEAKEN A BIT OVERNGT...CURRENT STLT TRENDS
SUPPORT MORE EXTENSIVE MID LVL DRY SLOTTING AND EXPANDING POTENTIAL
MIX WITH FZDZ FARTHER TO THE W TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE SE HALF.
ALTHOUGH THE DISTURBANCE WL BE WEAKENING A BIT...NE H925 WINDS FCST
AS HI AS 35-40KTS WL ALLOW FOR BLSN...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS NEAR
LK SUP.
WED...BULK OF THE LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AREA
OF DEEPER MID LVL MSTR WRAPPING BACK THRU THE CWA UNDER TRACK OF
OPENING SHRTWV LIFTING TO THE NE AND ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC. SO AFTER SOME REDUCED POPS IN THE MRNG/MIX WITH FREEZING
DZ...BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE HI LIKELY RANGE FOR MORE SN WITH DEEPER
MSTR EXPANDING BACK INTO THE DGZ. ALTHOUGH SOME LES WL PERSIST OVER
THE W IN THE AFTN WITH CYC NNW FLOW OF COLDER AIR DROPPING H85 TEMPS
TO NEAR -15C BY 00Z THU...ARRIVAL OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IN THE
WAKE OF PASSING SHRTWV SHOULD RESULT IN DIMINISHING PCPN.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST QUEBEC
WEDNESDAY EVENING WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH AXIS LINGER
ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH AXIS LINGERING OVER THE AREA
WILL KEEP 850MB TEMPS AROUND -14C TO -15C. THE COMBINATION OF DELTA
T VALUES AROUND 17C TO 18C ALONG WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL KEEP AN ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MAINLY FOR NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE U.P. THIS WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
IN INTENSITY OVER THE WEST WHILE THE EAST CONTINUES TO LIGHT TO
MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL DROP FROM 6-7KFT
IN THE EVENING OVER THE WEST TO AROUND 3 TO 4KFT OVERNIGHT...AGAIN
POINTING TOWARD THE DIMINISHING TREND. OVER THE EAST
HALF...INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL STAY AROUND 6-7KFT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A LARGE PORTION OF THE MOIST LAYER WILL BE IN THE
DGZ...WHICH WILL HELP TO SUPPORT HIGHER SNOWFALL RATIOS AROUND 19:1
TO 22:1 ALONG WITH ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES FOR THE
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING AS A WEAK AND VERY BRIEF
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
REDUCTION IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT IT WILL BE VERY BRIEF AS ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL 500MB SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE INCREASED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH ALONG WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING
AROUND -14C TO -15C WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO KICK UP AGAIN.
THIS TIME THE MAIN AREA OF FOCUS WOULD BE MAINLY ALONG THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AS WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY.
INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO JUMP UP TO AROUND 6-8KFT AS THE
WAVE SLIDES THROUGH WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW TOTALS ARE EXPECTED AS THE WAVE IS SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA
QUICKLY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE KEWEENAW AND EASTERN AREAS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR COULD SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL HELP PEG ANY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO WESTERN U.P./KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND POSSIBLY
OVER EASTERN AREAS...MAINLY CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE. MOISTURE IS
PROGGED TO BE FAIRLY SHALLOW THROUGH THE DAY SO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS INVERSION HEIGHTS AND MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN BELOW 5KFT. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR INCREASED
MOISTURE WITH 850MB TEMPS REMAINING AROUND -14C TO -15C. THIS WILL
ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG WITH LIGHT SYSTEM SNOW TO OCCUR ACROSS
THE AREA. RIGHT NOW THE FAVORED LAKE ENHANCEMENT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD
OCCUR FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS...BUT THERE ARE
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE WIND FIELDS. DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A
MAJOR LAKE EFFECT EVENT AT THIS TIME.
SUNDAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED...BOTH THE EC AND GFS ARE SHOWING A
CLIPPER SYSTEM SLIDING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKE THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD. THIS WOULD END UP BRINGING WIDESPREAD SYSTEM SNOW
ACROSS THE U.P. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE THE LATEST GFS/EC
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT...PREVIOUS MODEL RUN COMPARISONS SHOW
THAT THERE HAS BEEN SOME DISAGREEMENTS FROM RUN TO RUN. AT THIS
POINT WILL NOT GET INTO THE SPECIFICS THIS FAR OUT. THE TREND WOULD
BE FOR THE CLIPPER SYSTEM TO SLIDE THROUGH DURING THAT TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016
EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES. IN
ADDITION...WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NE...CREATING
BLSN AT TIMES. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE SOME FZDZ AT
SAW FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT INTO WED WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER
VSBYS...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE IFR/LIFR RANGE EVEN IF THIS
OCCURS. EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT WED EVENING TO MVFR AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN AND SFC RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS LOW PRES TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...EVENTUALLY CROSSING FAR NORTHERN LOWER MI LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND ADJACENT WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...SO GALE WARNING REMAINS
OVER THAT AREA FOR LATE EVENING THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. AFTER
A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY...THE NEXT PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS
WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH WINDS OF 20-30KT...STRONGEST
OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
WIND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR MIZ001>007-009-084-085.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ013-
014.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ010>012.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1042 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLD LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HRS BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE. LOOKING AT MTN TOP OBSCD AND SOME LOCALIZED MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE NC MTNS TODAY
BUT TERMINAL TAF SITES WILL NOT BE IMPACTED. CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT AND FRESH SNOWPACK MEANS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS/VIS
RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT. MIXED SIGNALS FROM THE MODELS AT LVS SO
DECIDED TO HOLD OF IN PLACING RESTRICTIONS IN THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL RELOOK FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
ISSUANCE. FMN LATE TONIGHT IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY BUT LEFT IT OUT
AT THIS TIME.
50
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...310 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TO THE TEXAS
BORDER SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND EXTEND INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST TONIGHT. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE LIGHT. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. A DRY BUT COLDER THAN NORMAL PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON ANY SIGNIFICANT STORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT
OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL REINFORCE COLD AIR OVER THE STATE AND
MAY BRING ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION TO THE NORTH
AT TIMES. BY NEXT TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO
WARMER THAN AVERAGE VALUES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES AT KCQC...KSAF AND KAXX AT THIS TIME...BUT
SHORT TERM MODELS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THIS SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL ALLOW THE WINTER WEATHER TO RUN
UNTIL IT/S EXPIRATION AT 5 AM. RUC13 AND HRRR INDICATE SOME LIGHT
SNOW REDEVELOPING OVER THE NRN MTS AND SPREADING INTO THE FAR NE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT NOT MUCH ACCUMULATING AS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT TRACK OVER THE REGION.
DEW POINTS CRATER TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR LOWS TO FALL TO 15 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE
NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WHICH WAS TO BE MUCH
STRONGER FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY IS NOW A FASTER MOVING TROUGH...AND AS
A RESULT MUCH DRIER. TRIMMED POPS BACK BUT DIDN/T GO QUITE AS FAR AS
GUIDANCE...WOULD LIKE TO SEE IF MODELS ESTABLISH THIS AS A TREND TO
BOOST CONFIDENCE BEFORE CUTTING BACK EVEN MORE.
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS ARE ABSENT FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES IN
NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH BRING COLD FRONTS AND BRISK WINDS TO REINFORCE
THE BELOW AVERAGE COLD...AS WELL AS MEAGER SNOWFALL TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST. SOME RELIEF INDICATED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN UNDER AN OVERALL DRY
WEATHER PATTERN.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL START THE DAY...AND AS UPSLOPE FLOW
DIMINISHES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...SO WILL THE SNOW
OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND EAST CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
THUS...THE CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL BE STEADILY DECREASING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY JUST THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OBSERVING LIGHT
SNOWFALL. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH...IF
ANY...FROM YESTERDAYS READINGS...STAYING WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST BREEZES REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO
ACCOUNT FOR A RELATIVELY STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A
SWATH OF 30-40 MPH WINDS AT THE 10000FT LEVEL. THESE BRISK WINDS
WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN A FAIR
VENTILATION CATEGORY...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AND THE FAR
WESTERN BORDER OF NM.
BY TONIGHT...MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SOME SNOW FLURRIES WILL LINGER IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE
THE BITTERLY COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DUE TO PLUMMETING
DEWPOINTS...LESS CLOUD COVER...AND LIGHTER WINDS.
FOR THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR TO WARM 3 TO 12 DEGREES AS
THE FLOW ALOFT TEMPORARILY SHIFTS MORE WESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW
PRESSURE HEIGHTS TO RISE AMIDST THE DRY ATMOSPHERE. THESE RISING
TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH THE VERY LOW DEWPOINTS WILL ACTUALLY CARRY
THE MINIMUM RH TO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE IN MUCH OF CENTRAL TO
EASTERN NM THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE
OBSERVED IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS AND EASTWARD INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS OF EAST CENTRAL NM. OUTSIDE OF THESE BREEZY AREAS...
VENTILATION WILL SUFFER DUE TO POOR MIXING.
FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL WORKING TO FIND THE CONSENSUS FOR FRIDAYS
WEATHER. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE NEXT PERTURBATION ALOFT WILL
APPROACH NM IN A WEAKER AND DRIER STATE THAN WAS ADVERTISED
YESTERDAY AND THE DAY BEFORE. IT CERTAINLY APPEAR INEVITABLE THAT
COOLER AIR WILL STUNT THE WARMING TREND...BUT ANY ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY BE ON THE MEAGER SIDE WITH THIS MORNINGS
FORECAST ONLY INCLUDING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MAINLY
THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A
FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES MORE ON SATURDAY...ACTUALLY RISING WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES OF SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON
SUNDAY...SO JUST AS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES WARM CLOSE TO
NORMAL...THE EAST WILL BE SET BACK SEVERAL DEGREES. IT NOW APPEARS
THE POLAR VORTEX WILL STEP EASTWARD OF THE HIGH PLAINS...AND
CONSEQUENTLY THIS WOULD SPELL A WARMING TREND FOR NM NEXT WEEK.
52
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
440 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
SOME LIGHT SNOW IS CONTINUING OVER PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO AND TOWARD THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF THE STATE. SOME
TEMPORARY MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE COMMON IN
THESE AREAS THROUGH 03/1600UTC...WITH SNOW DWINDLING TO JUST THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THEREAFTER. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT OVER THE NORTHERN PEAKS OF NEW MEXICO...BUT SOME
OCCASIONAL OBSCURATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL PEAKS CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TODAY. CLOUDS WILL THIN MORE INTO TONIGHT
WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES OVER THE NORTHERN PEAKS AFTER
DARK. SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT WILL BE COMMON FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF NEW MEXICO TO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TODAY.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...310 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TO THE TEXAS
BORDER SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND EXTEND INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST TONIGHT. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE LIGHT. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. A DRY BUT COLDER THAN NORMAL PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON ANY SIGNIFICANT STORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT
OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL REINFORCE COLD AIR OVER THE STATE AND
MAY BRING ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION TO THE NORTH
AT TIMES. BY NEXT TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO
WARMER THAN AVERAGE VALUES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES AT KCQC...KSAF AND KAXX AT THIS TIME...BUT
SHORT TERM MODELS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THIS SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL ALLOW THE WINTER WEATHER TO RUN
UNTIL IT/S EXPIRATION AT 5 AM. RUC13 AND HRRR INDICATE SOME LIGHT
SNOW REDEVELOPING OVER THE NRN MTS AND SPREADING INTO THE FAR NE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT NOT MUCH ACCUMULATING AS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT TRACK OVER THE REGION.
DEW POINTS CRATER TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR LOWS TO FALL TO 15 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE
NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WHICH WAS TO BE MUCH
STRONGER FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY IS NOW A FASTER MOVING TROUGH...AND AS
A RESULT MUCH DRIER. TRIMMED POPS BACK BUT DIDN/T GO QUITE AS FAR AS
GUIDANCE...WOULD LIKE TO SEE IF MODELS ESTABLISH THIS AS A TREND TO
BOOST CONFIDENCE BEFORE CUTTING BACK EVEN MORE.
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS ARE ABSENT FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES IN
NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH BRING COLD FRONTS AND BRISK WINDS TO REINFORCE
THE BELOW AVERAGE COLD...AS WELL AS MEAGER SNOWFALL TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST. SOME RELIEF INDICATED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN UNDER AN OVERALL DRY
WEATHER PATTERN.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL START THE DAY...AND AS UPSLOPE FLOW
DIMINISHES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...SO WILL THE SNOW
OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND EAST CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
THUS...THE CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL BE STEADILY DECREASING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY JUST THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OBSERVING LIGHT
SNOWFALL. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH...IF
ANY...FROM YESTERDAYS READINGS...STAYING WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST BREEZES REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO
ACCOUNT FOR A RELATIVELY STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A
SWATH OF 30-40 MPH WINDS AT THE 10000FT LEVEL. THESE BRISK WINDS
WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN A FAIR
VENTILATION CATEGORY...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AND THE FAR
WESTERN BORDER OF NM.
BY TONIGHT...MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SOME SNOW FLURRIES WILL LINGER IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE
THE BITTERLY COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DUE TO PLUMMETING
DEWPOINTS...LESS CLOUD COVER...AND LIGHTER WINDS.
FOR THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR TO WARM 3 TO 12 DEGREES AS
THE FLOW ALOFT TEMPORARILY SHIFTS MORE WESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW
PRESSURE HEIGHTS TO RISE AMIDST THE DRY ATMOSPHERE. THESE RISING
TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH THE VERY LOW DEWPOINTS WILL ACTUALLY CARRY
THE MINIMUM RH TO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE IN MUCH OF CENTRAL TO
EASTERN NM THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE
OBSERVED IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS AND EASTWARD INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS OF EAST CENTRAL NM. OUTSIDE OF THESE BREEZY AREAS...
VENTILATION WILL SUFFER DUE TO POOR MIXING.
FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL WORKING TO FIND THE CONSENSUS FOR FRIDAYS
WEATHER. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE NEXT PERTURBATION ALOFT WILL
APPROACH NM IN A WEAKER AND DRIER STATE THAN WAS ADVERTISED
YESTERDAY AND THE DAY BEFORE. IT CERTAINLY APPEAR INEVITABLE THAT
COOLER AIR WILL STUNT THE WARMING TREND...BUT ANY ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY BE ON THE MEAGER SIDE WITH THIS MORNINGS
FORECAST ONLY INCLUDING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MAINLY
THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A
FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES MORE ON SATURDAY...ACTUALLY RISING WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES OF SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON
SUNDAY...SO JUST AS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES WARM CLOSE TO
NORMAL...THE EAST WILL BE SET BACK SEVERAL DEGREES. IT NOW APPEARS
THE POLAR VORTEX WILL STEP EASTWARD OF THE HIGH PLAINS...AND
CONSEQUENTLY THIS WOULD SPELL A WARMING TREND FOR NM NEXT WEEK.
52
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ510-513>515-529-532-533.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
310 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TO THE TEXAS
BORDER SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND EXTEND INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST TONIGHT. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE LIGHT. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. A DRY BUT COLDER THAN NORMAL PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON ANY SIGNIFICANT STORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT
OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL REINFORCE COLD AIR OVER THE STATE AND
MAY BRING ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION TO THE NORTH
AT TIMES. BY NEXT TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO
WARMER THAN AVERAGE VALUES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES AT KCQC...KSAF AND KAXX AT THIS TIME...BUT
SHORT TERM MODELS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THIS SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL ALLOW THE WINTER WEATHER TO RUN
UNTIL IT/S EXPIRATION AT 5 AM. RUC13 AND HRRR INDICATE SOME LIGHT
SNOW REDEVELOPING OVER THE NRN MTS AND SPREADING INTO THE FAR NE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT NOT MUCH ACCUMULATING AS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT TRACK OVER THE REGION.
DEW POINTS CRATER TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR LOWS TO FALL TO 15 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE
NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WHICH WAS TO BE MUCH
STRONGER FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY IS NOW A FASTER MOVING TROUGH...AND AS
A RESULT MUCH DRIER. TRIMMED POPS BACK BUT DIDN/T GO QUITE AS FAR AS
GUIDANCE...WOULD LIKE TO SEE IF MODELS ESTABLISH THIS AS A TREND TO
BOOST CONFIDENCE BEFORE CUTTING BACK EVEN MORE.
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS ARE ABSENT FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES IN
NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH BRING COLD FRONTS AND BRISK WINDS TO REINFORCE
THE BELOW AVERAGE COLD...AS WELL AS MEAGER SNOWFALL TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST. SOME RELIEF INDICATED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN UNDER AN OVERALL DRY
WEATHER PATTERN.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL START THE DAY...AND AS UPSLOPE FLOW
DIMINISHES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...SO WILL THE SNOW
OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND EAST CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
THUS...THE CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL BE STEADILY DECREASING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY JUST THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OBSERVING LIGHT
SNOWFALL. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH...IF
ANY...FROM YESTERDAYS READINGS...STAYING WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST BREEZES REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO
ACCOUNT FOR A RELATIVELY STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A
SWATH OF 30-40 MPH WINDS AT THE 10000FT LEVEL. THESE BRISK WINDS
WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN A FAIR
VENTILATION CATEGORY...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AND THE FAR
WESTERN BORDER OF NM.
BY TONIGHT...MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SOME SNOW FLURRIES WILL LINGER IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE
THE BITTERLY COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DUE TO PLUMMETING
DEWPOINTS...LESS CLOUD COVER...AND LIGHTER WINDS.
FOR THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR TO WARM 3 TO 12 DEGREES AS
THE FLOW ALOFT TEMPORARILY SHIFTS MORE WESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW
PRESSURE HEIGHTS TO RISE AMIDST THE DRY ATMOSPHERE. THESE RISING
TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH THE VERY LOW DEWPOINTS WILL ACTUALLY CARRY
THE MINIMUM RH TO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE IN MUCH OF CENTRAL TO
EASTERN NM THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE
OBSERVED IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS AND EASTWARD INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS OF EAST CENTRAL NM. OUTSIDE OF THESE BREEZY AREAS...
VENTILATION WILL SUFFER DUE TO POOR MIXING.
FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL WORKING TO FIND THE CONSENSUS FOR FRIDAYS
WEATHER. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE NEXT PERTURBATION ALOFT WILL
APPROACH NM IN A WEAKER AND DRIER STATE THAN WAS ADVERTISED
YESTERDAY AND THE DAY BEFORE. IT CERTAINLY APPEAR INEVITABLE THAT
COOLER AIR WILL STUNT THE WARMING TREND...BUT ANY ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY BE ON THE MEAGER SIDE WITH THIS MORNINGS
FORECAST ONLY INCLUDING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MAINLY
THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A
FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES MORE ON SATURDAY...ACTUALLY RISING WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES OF SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON
SUNDAY...SO JUST AS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES WARM CLOSE TO
NORMAL...THE EAST WILL BE SET BACK SEVERAL DEGREES. IT NOW APPEARS
THE POLAR VORTEX WILL STEP EASTWARD OF THE HIGH PLAINS...AND
CONSEQUENTLY THIS WOULD SPELL A WARMING TREND FOR NM NEXT WEEK.
52
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
AN AREA OF SNOW IS CONTINUING OVER PORTIONS OF EAST NM...CENTERED
OVER GUADALUPE AND DE BACA COUNTIES. IT IS FINALLY ENDING IN LVS.
SNOW SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND END SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. NC MTNS WILL HAVE MTN TOP OBSCD THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED CLEARING
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME LOW
CIGS AS A RESULT OF THIS CLEARING ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR
DEVELOPMENT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS. 40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 30 5 32 9 / 5 0 5 10
DULCE........................... 25 -6 30 0 / 20 5 10 10
CUBA............................ 26 -4 32 4 / 10 0 5 10
GALLUP.......................... 31 -8 39 3 / 5 0 5 10
EL MORRO........................ 27 -6 37 0 / 5 0 5 5
GRANTS.......................... 33 -5 40 6 / 5 0 5 5
QUEMADO......................... 34 6 41 9 / 5 0 5 5
GLENWOOD........................ 40 9 46 12 / 5 0 0 5
CHAMA........................... 22 -11 27 -5 / 30 10 10 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 25 8 35 13 / 10 0 0 5
PECOS........................... 25 4 36 11 / 10 0 0 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 22 -11 27 0 / 10 10 5 10
RED RIVER....................... 17 -21 26 -6 / 20 20 10 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 18 -24 27 -4 / 20 10 5 10
TAOS............................ 24 -9 29 2 / 10 10 0 10
MORA............................ 24 -3 35 10 / 20 5 0 5
ESPANOLA........................ 30 2 36 9 / 10 0 0 5
SANTA FE........................ 26 2 33 10 / 10 0 0 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 29 4 35 13 / 10 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 31 13 36 17 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 34 15 39 20 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 35 8 41 13 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 34 9 40 14 / 5 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 36 12 42 18 / 5 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 34 14 38 19 / 5 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 39 15 44 21 / 5 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 27 7 34 15 / 5 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 29 8 35 15 / 5 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 30 -1 38 9 / 5 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 27 6 35 12 / 10 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 31 9 40 18 / 5 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 35 14 43 21 / 5 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 32 14 41 20 / 5 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 26 1 39 12 / 10 10 0 5
RATON........................... 28 -4 38 12 / 10 10 0 5
SPRINGER........................ 27 0 38 12 / 10 10 0 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 26 2 39 14 / 10 5 0 5
CLAYTON......................... 33 12 44 20 / 10 10 0 5
ROY............................. 32 10 42 18 / 10 5 0 5
CONCHAS......................... 36 13 46 20 / 10 0 0 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 37 14 47 22 / 10 0 0 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 39 14 49 23 / 10 5 0 5
CLOVIS.......................... 40 16 48 21 / 5 0 0 5
PORTALES........................ 39 17 49 23 / 5 0 0 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 39 16 47 21 / 10 0 0 5
ROSWELL......................... 43 18 49 21 / 10 0 0 5
PICACHO......................... 39 15 48 21 / 10 0 0 5
ELK............................. 35 14 45 20 / 5 0 0 5
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1038 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO DRIFT
SLOWLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND OFFSHORE THIS EVENING.
THE LAST OF THESE WAVES WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST OVERNIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY
AND QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
QUICK BOUT OF RAIN WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW MIXING IN.
ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1035 PM THURSDAY...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN HAS MOVED OUT
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA SO THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
WILL KEEP THE SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA PORTION CONTINUING UNTIL
2 AM. THE HRRR AND THE NAM CURRENTLY ARE SHOWING THE END OF THE
HEAVIER RAIN BY MIDNIGHT. AFTERWARD ONLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...RAPIDLY DEEPENING OFFSHORE LOW WILL BE
MOVING SWIFTLY NORTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...PULLING
MOISTURE AWAY WITH IT BUT ALSO BRINGING IN A STRONG SURGE OF COLD
ADVECTION. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
IN THE CAPE FEAR REGION FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S AND RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND LOWS A DEGREE OR SO EITHER SIDE OF 30.
THE APPROACH OF A VERY POTENT AND DEEP SHORT WAVE OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY WILL SPAWN CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK-SIDE OF
THE LOW WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT SATURDAY...WITH RAIN
LIKELY ALONG THE COAST...POSSIBLY ENDING BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW FROZEN PRECIP UNLIKELY AT THIS
POINT...ANOTHER CASE OF COLD AIR CHASING MOISTURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER CAPTION FOR THIS PERIOD
READS SEASONABLY COOL EARLY FEBRUARY AIR CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL VALUES COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY. ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS
OFFERS 2 PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SUNDAY MORNING ALONG AND NEAR THE
COAST AS AN ENERGETIC CLIPPER SHORT-WAVE SPURS OFFSHORE
CYCLOGENESIS. ECMWF OFFERS A STRONGER AMPLIFICATION OF THIS
FEATURE BUT FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER OUTCOMES IT IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS
IN TERMS OF A LOW-QPF SYSTEM RELIANT ON ATLC MOISTURE. MONDAY
NIGHT A REINFORCING COLD FRONT PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER COLD
POOL TUESDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. AGREEMENT IS GOOD
AMONG GLOBAL SOLUTIONS THAT A BROAD AND COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL
TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY TO MID-WEEK.
ENOUGH LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS PRESENT TO INTERACT WITH
THE LAPSE RATES ALOFT TO WARRANT SHOWERS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES AT
THIS TIME SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE OF LIQUID FORM.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN NC HAS FINALLY REACHED THE COAST AND WILL BE
PULLING OFF THE COAST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE SC COAST WILL BE LIFTING NEWD DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AS WELL. HRRR AND RAP40 SHOWED HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COASTAL
TERMINALS FROM 00Z-04Z WITH DRYING MOVING ACROSS THE INLAND
TERMINALS. NOT SEEING THAT HEAVY PRECIP MATERIALIZING FOR SC
TERMINALS BUT WILL LEAVE THE CHANCE ACROSS KILM FOR THAT PERIOD
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL FORECAST MVFR ACROSS KLBT/KFLO
AND KEEP IN IFR ACROSS KILM/KCRE/KMYR THROUGH 03Z-04Z THEN MVFR.
LOOK FOR TERMINALS TO BECOME VFR FIRST INLAND THEN COASTAL
TERMINALS AFTER 10Z-13Z INLAND AND AFTER 15Z-16Z COAST.
MAIN AVIATION ISSUE WILL TRANSITION FROM RAIN/CEILINGS/VSBY TO WIND
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH SURFACE LOW EXITING AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE STRONG N-NW WINDS
ACROSS THE TERMINALS OF 15-20KTS WITH SOME GUSTS OF 25-30KTS. WINDS
WILL START TO ABATE AFTER 06/00Z.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RAIN POSSIBLE
SUNDAY WITH MVFR. VFR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9 PM THURSDAY...A SURFACE LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA AND THIS LOW WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS
OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS AND INTERSECTS THE SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA COAST IN BRUNSWICK COUNTY. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT IT WILL BE PULLED OUT OFF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
AND A STRONG NORTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP OVER ALL THE WATERS
BRINGING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH VERY STRONG WINDS
AND DANGEROUSLY HIGH SEAS IN THE WAKE OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT A STRONGLY-WORDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY MORNING FOR WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS AND 5 TO
8 FT SEAS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OVER TEXAS MOVES
RAPIDLY EAST OVER EASTERN CONUS. ANOTHER RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE WATERS SUNDAY MORNING...ALLOWING CONDITIONS
TO ONCE AGAIN DETERIORATE AND LIKELY NECESSITATING THE ISSUANCE OF
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...CHALLENGING MARINE CONDITIONS START THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS STRONG OFFSHORE N-NW WINDS GREET SUNDAY DUE TO
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFFSHORE. 25 KT WINDS AND ELEVATED
SEAS OFFSHORE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON
SUNDAY. IMPROVEMENT WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
LOW PULLS NE AWAY FROM THE WATERS. THE IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE ADVERTISED PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS 20-25 KT SW-W
WINDS BY TUESDAY AND HIGHER GUSTS OUTER PORTION. THUS IT APPEARS
ANOTHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AFTER AN
ADVISORY SUNDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ096-099-105>110.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...MJC
AVIATION...MAC
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
917 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO DRIFT
SLOWLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND OFFSHORE THIS EVENING.
THE LAST OF THESE WAVES WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST OVERNIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY
AND QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
QUICK BOUT OF RAIN WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW MIXING IN.
ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 9 PM THURSDAY...SEVERAL BANDS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE MOVING
OUT OF NORTHERN HORRY INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND IT APPEARS THE
LAST THREAT OF RAIN IS MAKING IT LAST PUSH ACROSS GEORGETOWN AND
WILL ENTER HORRY IN THE NEXT HOUR. THE HRRR AND THE NAM CURRENTLY
ARE SHOWING THE END OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BY MIDNIGHT. AFTERWARD
ONLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT TO
CANCEL FLOOD WATCH IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AT 10 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...RAPIDLY DEEPENING OFFSHORE LOW WILL BE
MOVING SWIFTLY NORTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...PULLING
MOISTURE AWAY WITH IT BUT ALSO BRINGING IN A STRONG SURGE OF COLD
ADVECTION. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
IN THE CAPE FEAR REGION FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S AND RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND LOWS A DEGREE OR SO EITHER SIDE OF 30.
THE APPROACH OF A VERY POTENT AND DEEP SHORT WAVE OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY WILL SPAWN CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK-SIDE OF
THE LOW WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT SATURDAY...WITH RAIN
LIKELY ALONG THE COAST...POSSIBLY ENDING BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW FROZEN PRECIP UNLIKELY AT THIS
POINT...ANOTHER CASE OF COLD AIR CHASING MOISTURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER CAPTION FOR THIS PERIOD
READS SEASONABLY COOL EARLY FEBRUARY AIR CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL VALUES COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY. ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS
OFFERS 2 PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SUNDAY MORNING ALONG AND NEAR THE
COAST AS AN ENERGETIC CLIPPER SHORT-WAVE SPURS OFFSHORE
CYCLOGENESIS. ECMWF OFFERS A STRONGER AMPLIFICATION OF THIS
FEATURE BUT FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER OUTCOMES IT IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS
IN TERMS OF A LOW-QPF SYSTEM RELIANT ON ATLC MOISTURE. MONDAY
NIGHT A REINFORCING COLD FRONT PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER COLD
POOL TUESDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. AGREEMENT IS GOOD
AMONG GLOBAL SOLUTIONS THAT A BROAD AND COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL
TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY TO MID-WEEK.
ENOUGH LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS PRESENT TO INTERACT WITH
THE LAPSE RATES ALOFT TO WARRANT SHOWERS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES AT
THIS TIME SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE OF LIQUID FORM.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN NC HAS FINALLY REACHED THE COAST AND WILL BE
PULLING OFF THE COAST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE SC COAST WILL BE LIFTING NEWD DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AS WELL. HRRR AND RAP40 SHOWED HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COASTAL
TERMINALS FROM 00Z-04Z WITH DRYING MOVING ACROSS THE INLAND
TERMINALS. NOT SEEING THAT HEAVY PRECIP MATERIALIZING FOR SC
TERMINALS BUT WILL LEAVE THE CHANCE ACROSS KILM FOR THAT PERIOD
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL FORECAST MVFR ACROSS KLBT/KFLO
AND KEEP IN IFR ACROSS KILM/KCRE/KMYR THROUGH 03Z-04Z THEN MVFR.
LOOK FOR TERMINALS TO BECOME VFR FIRST INLAND THEN COASTAL
TERMINALS AFTER 10Z-13Z INLAND AND AFTER 15Z-16Z COAST.
MAIN AVIATION ISSUE WILL TRANSITION FROM RAIN/CEILINGS/VSBY TO WIND
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH SURFACE LOW EXITING AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE STRONG N-NW WINDS
ACROSS THE TERMINALS OF 15-20KTS WITH SOME GUSTS OF 25-30KTS. WINDS
WILL START TO ABATE AFTER 06/00Z.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RAIN POSSIBLE
SUNDAY WITH MVFR. VFR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9 PM THURSDAY...A SURFACE LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA AND THIS LOW WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS
OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS AND INTERSECTS THE SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA COAST IN BRUNSWICK COUNTY. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT IT WILL BE PULLED OUT OFF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
AND A STRONG NORTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP OVER ALL THE WATERS
BRINGING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH VERY STRONG WINDS
AND DANGEROUSLY HIGH SEAS IN THE WAKE OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT A STRONGLY-WORDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY MORNING FOR WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS AND 5 TO
8 FT SEAS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OVER TEXAS MOVES
RAPIDLY EAST OVER EASTERN CONUS. ANOTHER RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE WATERS SUNDAY MORNING...ALLOWING CONDITIONS
TO ONCE AGAIN DETERIORATE AND LIKELY NECESSITATING THE ISSUANCE OF
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...CHALLENGING MARINE CONDITIONS START THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS STRONG OFFSHORE N-NW WINDS GREET SUNDAY DUE TO
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFFSHORE. 25 KT WINDS AND ELEVATED
SEAS OFFSHORE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON
SUNDAY. IMPROVEMENT WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
LOW PULLS NE AWAY FROM THE WATERS. THE IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE ADVERTISED PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS 20-25 KT SW-W
WINDS BY TUESDAY AND HIGHER GUSTS OUTER PORTION. THUS IT APPEARS
ANOTHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AFTER AN
ADVISORY SUNDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ053>056.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ096-099-105>110.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...MJC
AVIATION...MAC
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
655 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO DRIFT
SLOWLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND OFFSHORE THIS EVENING.
THE LAST OF THESE WAVES WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST OVERNIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY
AND QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
QUICK BOUT OF RAIN WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW MIXING IN.
ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM THURSDAY...CURRENTLY ONLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN MAINLY
EAST OF A ELIZABETHTOWN TO ANDREWS LINE. PRECIPITATION MORE
SCATTERED TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE. THE SURFACE ANALYSIS IS
SHOWING THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON JUST BELOW 1013
MB ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE 22 UTC RAP/HRRR MODELS SHOW THE LOW
SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTH BUT REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 1010MB. THE
22 UTC HRRR INITIALIZES THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RAIN TO FAR
WEST...AND IT WANTS TO INCREASE INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE FLOOD WATCH AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE SIGNIFICANT
FORCING IS SUPPOSE TO BE THE ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS LIFT SHOULD
BECOME STRONG WITH THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
AND IF THE HEAVY RAIN DOESN`T MATERIALIZE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER DROPPING THE FLOOD WATCH.
...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY REACHED THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST BUT HAS YET TO SHOW UP IN THE WILMINGTON/ CAPE FEAR AREA
WHERE WINDS ARE STILL SOUTH WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS. THE FRONT IS
CURRENTLY WEAKENING ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD SURVIVE AS A TRACKABLE
FEATURE THIS EVENING DESPITE THE WEAK WINDS AND MODIFYING
AIRMASSES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
A STREAM OF DEEP MOISTURE AND RAINFALL EXTENDING FROM FLORIDA
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. WE`VE HAD A
WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH THE
HEAVIEST TOTALS IN A STRIPE JUST WEST AND NORTH OF WILMINGTON.
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL WHIP EASTWARD TONIGHT...REACHING THE
CAROLINAS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. SLOWLY VEERING MID-LEVEL WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE _WOULD_ PUSH THE RAIN GRADUALLY OFF
THE COAST THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME NON-LINEAR
PROCESSES AT WORK WHICH WILL DELAY THE ENDING OF THE PRECIP. FOR
ONE...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE COAST SHOULD TIGHTEN WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM ALOFT. THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION
OF A 300 MB JET STREAK OVER NEW YORK STATE WILL HELP ENHANCE DEEP
LIFT OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS EVENING AND WILL HELP SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE SC COAST.
ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE 300K-310K LAYER SHOULD INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY FROM 6 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT WITH RAINFALL RATES LIKELY
BECOMING QUITE HEAVY ALONG THE COAST. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM LESS THAN HALF AN
INCH WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 TO 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES FOR SOUTHPORT AND
WILMINGTON. THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE FLOOD WATCH.
AFTER 06Z/2 AM EST...DEEP ASCENT SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE AND TOWARD
THE OUTER BANKS. A DRY SLOT ARRIVING IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD ALSO
HELP END THE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD
PERSIST. COMPARED TO MODELS 12 HOURS AGO SURFACE AND IN-CLOUD
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER LATE TONIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW FLURRIES APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING. FORECAST LOWS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION TO THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE
COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...RAPIDLY DEEPENING OFFSHORE LOW WILL BE
MOVING SWIFTLY NORTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...PULLING
MOISTURE AWAY WITH IT BUT ALSO BRINGING IN A STRONG SURGE OF COLD
ADVECTION. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
IN THE CAPE FEAR REGION FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S AND RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND LOWS A DEGREE OR SO EITHER SIDE OF 30.
THE APPROACH OF A VERY POTENT AND DEEP SHORT WAVE OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY WILL SPAWN CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK-SIDE OF
THE LOW WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT SATURDAY...WITH RAIN
LIKELY ALONG THE COAST...POSSIBLY ENDING BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW FROZEN PRECIP UNLIKELY AT THIS
POINT...ANOTHER CASE OF COLD AIR CHASING MOISTURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER CAPTION FOR THIS PERIOD
READS SEASONABLY COOL EARLY FEBRUARY AIR CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL VALUES COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY. ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS
OFFERS 2 PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SUNDAY MORNING ALONG AND NEAR THE
COAST AS AN ENERGETIC CLIPPER SHORT-WAVE SPURS OFFSHORE
CYCLOGENESIS. ECMWF OFFERS A STRONGER AMPLIFICATION OF THIS
FEATURE BUT FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER OUTCOMES IT IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS
IN TERMS OF A LOW-QPF SYSTEM RELIANT ON ATLC MOISTURE. MONDAY
NIGHT A REINFORCING COLD FRONT PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER COLD
POOL TUESDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. AGREEMENT IS GOOD
AMONG GLOBAL SOLUTIONS THAT A BROAD AND COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL
TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY TO MID-WEEK.
ENOUGH LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS PRESENT TO INTERACT WITH
THE LAPSE RATES ALOFT TO WARRANT SHOWERS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES AT
THIS TIME SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE OF LIQUID FORM.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN NC HAS FINALLY REACHED THE COAST AND WILL BE
PULLING OFF THE COAST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE SC COAST WILL BE LIFTING NEWD DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AS WELL. HRRR AND RAP40 SHOWED HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COASTAL
TERMINALS FROM 00Z-04Z WITH DRYING MOVING ACROSS THE INLAND
TERMINALS. NOT SEEING THAT HEAVY PRECIP MATERIALIZING FOR SC
TERMINALS BUT WILL LEAVE THE CHANCE ACROSS KILM FOR THAT PERIOD
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL FORECAST MVFR ACROSS KLBT/KFLO
AND KEEP IN IFR ACROSS KILM/KCRE/KMYR THROUGH 03Z-04Z THEN MVFR.
LOOK FOR TERMINALS TO BECOME VFR FIRST INLAND THEN COASTAL
TERMINALS AFTER 10Z-13Z INLAND AND AFTER 15Z-16Z COAST.
MAIN AVIATION ISSUE WILL TRANSITION FROM RAIN/CEILINGS/VSBY TO WIND
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH SURFACE LOW EXITING AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE STRONG N-NW WINDS
ACROSS THE TERMINALS OF 15-20KTS WITH SOME GUSTS OF 25-30KTS. WINDS
WILL START TO ABATE AFTER 06/00Z.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RAIN POSSIBLE
SUNDAY WITH MVFR. VFR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM THURSDAY...A SURFACE LOW IS SOUTH OF 41004 AND THIS
LOW WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS OVER THE SOUTH
CAROLINA WATERS AND INTERSECTS THE SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COAST
IN BRUNSWICK COUNTY. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT IT WILL
BE PULLED OUT OFF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND A STRONG NORTHWEST
WIND WILL DEVELOP OVER ALL THE WATERS BRINGING SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH VERY STRONG WINDS
AND DANGEROUSLY HIGH SEAS IN THE WAKE OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT A STRONGLY-WORDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY MORNING FOR WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS AND 5 TO
8 FT SEAS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OVER TEXAS MOVES
RAPIDLY EAST OVER EASTERN CONUS. ANOTHER RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE WATERS SUNDAY MORNING...ALLOWING CONDITIONS
TO ONCE AGAIN DETERIORATE AND LIKELY NECESSITATING THE ISSUANCE OF
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...CHALLENGING MARINE CONDITIONS START THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS STRONG OFFSHORE N-NW WINDS GREET SUNDAY DUE TO
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFFSHORE. 25 KT WINDS AND ELEVATED
SEAS OFFSHORE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON
SUNDAY. IMPROVEMENT WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
LOW PULLS NE AWAY FROM THE WATERS. THE IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE ADVERTISED PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS 20-25 KT SW-W
WINDS BY TUESDAY AND HIGHER GUSTS OUTER PORTION. THUS IT APPEARS
ANOTHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AFTER AN
ADVISORY SUNDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ053>056.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ096-099-105>110.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...MJC
AVIATION...MAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
328 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE
KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THURSDAY. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW MAY DEVELOP
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND PERHAPS EVEN
SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION. ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTION WHICH IS PRODUCING ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER TO THE WEST. THE LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING THE
CONVECTION SLOWLY SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY
21 UTC AND CREEPING TO THE EAST AND TOWARD THE COAST JUST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.
THE INITIAL THREAT IS AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH DAMAGING
WINDS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO IT WE CONTINUE TO SEE THE BOWING
IN THE CONVECTIVE LINES. THE BIGGER THREAT WITH HIGHER PROBABILITY
IS THE HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SLOW MOVING LINE. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
IS RUNNING AROUND 1.8 WHICH IS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR AND AS THE CONVECTION SHIFTS EASTWARD IT WILL SLOW AND THIS
WILL INCREASE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT OF 2 INCH AMOUNTS IN SOME
PLACES.
LOWS OVERNIGHT AREA EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH
THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...RATHER COPIOUS RAIN EVENT UNDERWAY THURSDAY
AS A FAIRLY FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP ALONG THE OFFSHORE
BOUNDARY IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG UPPER LOW BEARING DOWN FROM THE
WEST. BY THE TIME THE PRECIP WINDS DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT MOST AREAS
SHOULD NET TWO INCHES TO TWO AND A QUARTER. THIS IS FAR ENOUGH BELOW
FLOOD GUIDANCE THAT A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE BREEZY AND WELL MIXED KEEPING LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S EVEN AS TEMPS ALOFT GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FLURRIES ON
THE VERY TAIL END OF THE PRECIP. TOUGH TO RULE OUT A FLAKE OR TWO
REACHING THE GROUND DESPITE THE STRONG DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN DUE
TO 34 S-1 VORT BEARING DOWN ON THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEAKLY DUE TO THE NEXT SYSTEM ALOFT
RELOADING TO OUR WEST. MOST PLACES WILL STRUGGLE TO ABOUT 50 DESPITE
AMPLE SUNSHINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...INTERESTING START TO NEXT WEEK SHAPING UP
DURING THE PERIOD. FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR SAT WITH
ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE JUST WEST OF THE AREA. THINGS START TO GET
INTERESTING SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES
THE GULF COAST...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE
SAT NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT HELPS SPREAD
RAIN OVER THE AREA SUN MORNING. THE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS NORTHEAST
SUN AND SUN NIGHT. HAVE FAIR AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE PRESENCE OF
THE LOW BUT CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE CONCERNING THE LOWS
PROXIMITY TO THE COAST AND ITS FORWARD SPEED. STRENGTH AND TRACK
BOTH HAVE LARGE RAMIFICATIONS ON PRECIP TYPE SUN AND SUN NIGHT.
INHERITED FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH WPC...IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS GFS
SOLUTIONS AND THE 00Z ECMWF. THIS WOULD RESULT IN COLD RAIN WITH
SOME SNOW MIXED IN AS THE EVENT ENDS. THE LAST FEW GFS RUNS HOWEVER
HAVE TRENDED COLDER AND SLOWER...WITH MORE SNOW AND LESS RAIN. THIS
IS DOWN TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAVE A DEEPER SYSTEM AT 500
MB...WHICH MEANS MORE COLD AIR AND SLOWER MOVEMENT. SINCE THIS
SOLUTION IS NEW AND NOT REALLY IN LINE WITH GFS ENSEMBLES OR WPC IT
HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED FOR NOW...BUT BEARS WATCHING.
STACKED LOW EXITS NORTHEAST LATE SUN NIGHT BUT BROAD 5H TROUGH
LINGERS OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE IS SOME COLD
AIR BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM MON INTO TUE WHICH KEEPS TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. MUCH COLDER AIR FOLLOWS A STRONG COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA ON TUE. ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DROP
TEMPS WELL BELOW CLIMO. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY SHOWING 850
TEMPS RANGING FROM -10C TO -15C AS THE PERIOD ENDS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON WILL DETERIORATE
BACK TO MVFR/IFR THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BECOME WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG
COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
SLOWLY PUSHES OFFSHORE.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS...WITH 31
KTS ALREADY MEASURED AT KILM WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. VFR/MVFR PREVAILS
BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...LOW CIGS...AND
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT PROGGED TO
BE SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY OFFSHORE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ON THURSDAY.
BECOMING VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS WITH A SLIGHT VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 4 TO 7 FEET
NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER BASE ON LOCAL BUOYS AND SEAS ARE 4 FEET TO THE
SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET. THE LOCAL WAVE MODEL IS SHOWING THE
SEAS AT 20 MILES OFF THE COAST REMAINING AROUND 6 FEET OVERNIGHT
BEFORE DROPPING TO BELOW 5 FEET JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. SO WILL
CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER
THROUGH 6 AM AND AN EXERCISE CAUTION TO THE SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY... OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE RATHER LIGHT THROUGH
MOST OF THURSDAY`S VERY RAINY AFTERNOON. AS A FLAT WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDES BY FLOW WILL BACK AND INCREASE IN SPEED THURSDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE TO WHERE CAUTIONARY HEADLINES OR
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BY THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE LOW
ACCELERATES QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD AS FRIDAY PROGRESSES AND WINDS
WILL QUICKLY ABATE BELOW ANY THRESHOLDS THOUGH SCEC-WORTHY SEAS MAY
CONTINUE FOR A BIT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH WEST OF THE WATERS ON
SAT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY ENHANCED GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.
NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 15 KT SAT STARTS TO INCREASE SAT NIGHT AS
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH. WINDS STEADILY INCREASE SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN WITH SCA LIKELY AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR GALE
CONDITIONS LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT. ANY GALES WILL DEPEND ON THE
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT PASSES EAST OF THE WATERS. WINDS
WILL BACK FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST SUN AND SUN NIGHT WITH SPEEDS
DECREASING LATE SUN NIGHT AS THE LOW EXITS NORTHEAST. WEAK GRADIENT
BRIEFLY IN PLACE MON WITH WINDS BACKING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST
AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SPEEDS DROP UNDER 10 KT
EARLY MON MORNING BUT BY EVENING MOST AREAS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 15
KT...AND FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SEAS DECREASING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD START TO BUILD SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH
SUN...PEAKING JUST SHORT OF 10 FT SUN NIGHT. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE
FLOW LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON WILL BEGIN A DOWNWARD TREND IN SEAS
INTO MON EVENING BEFORE SEAS START BUILDING AS THE PERIOD ENDS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
118 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND PUSH INTO THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT AND THEN STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OFFSHORE
DURING THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT.
COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING THE RISK OF MORE PRECIPITATION. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM WEDNESDAY...WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH HORRY COUNTY AND THIS AREA IS PROGGED TO MOVE
QUICKLY NORTH OF THE AREA BY 20 UTC. THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION
IS FORECASTED BY THE 17 UTC HRRR TO ENTER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 23 UTC AND WORK ITS WAY TO THE COAST BY
MIDNIGHT. THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
CEASE AND SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND THE SLOW MOTION OF THE FRONT
THE AREA HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
FORECAST AREA WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST. ALSO...
THE AREA CONTINUES IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...THE SHEAR
IS STILL FORECASTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LINE OF CONVECTION
BUT THE LIMITED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL HAMPER ENHANCE
CONVECTION. EVEN WITH THIS THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
STRONG OR SEVERE WIND REPORT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFFSHORE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. AN ELONGATED MOISTURE FEED WILL EXTEND
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WELL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. THE
FRONT WILL BE WAITING ON A DECENT MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST FOR
THE FINAL PUSH OFFSHORE. OVERALL I INCREASED POPS THURSDAY INTO
THE EVENING HOURS VIA A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SCENARIO WITH THE LATEST
GUIDANCE. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD WANE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. FOR
FRIDAY EXPECT SLOW CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AND A COLD BLUSTERY
DAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE LOWER 50S. CLEAR AND
COLD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOST AREAS SEEING LOWS AT OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...INTERESTING AND ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SATURDAY WILL BE UNEVENTFUL ENOUGH WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING BASICALLY EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE ROCKIES LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS
ENSUING AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF AND MOVES ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. THE GFS IS MOST INTERESTING AND COLDER WITH SOME FROZEN
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE VIA OUR STATE OF THE ART TOP DOWN
METHODOLOGIES. THE LATEST ECMWF...WHICH IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION
VIA CONSISTENCY IS ADVERTISING A COLD RAIN. THE SYSTEM DEFINITELY
BEARS WATCHING. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL COULD SPELL TROUBLE BY
ITSELF IF THE ANTICIPATED QPF AMOUNTS COME CLOSE WITH THE CURRENT
EVENT. BEYOND THIS... SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST TROUGHING DEVELOPS
SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE COLD AIR. A POWERFUL VORT THAT WILL
BRING THE COLDEST OF AIR LATE COULD BRING A FEW SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A
SYSTEM FOR THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST REMAINS ON THE COLD SIDE WITH A VERY TEPID AND BRIEF
WARMUP MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON WILL DETERIORATE
BACK TO MVFR/IFR THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BECOME WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG
COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
SLOWLY PUSHES OFFSHORE.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS...WITH 31
KTS ALREADY MEASURED AT KILM WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. VFR/MVFR PREVAILS
BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...LOW CIGS...AND
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT PROGGED TO
BE SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY OFFSHORE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ON THURSDAY.
BECOMING VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM WEDNESDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AREA BLOWING
OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH SEAS RUNNING 3 TO 5 FEET NEAR SHORE
TO 5 TO 7 FEET AT 20 MILES OFF THE COAST. SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 3 TO 5 FEET RANGE. THUS THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AND EXERCISE CAUTION WILL CONTINUE.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THURSDAY AS A
FRONT TRUDGES SLOWLY TO THE EAST. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 KNOTS.
WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN
NORTHEAST AS THE DAY CONCLUDES. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT OFFSHORE WILL STRENGTHEN AND SPEEDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS.
BY EARLY FRIDAY SPEEDS INCREASE FURTHER FOR A FEW HOURS TO JUST
OVER 25 KNOTS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WINDS SLOWLY
DIMINISH ALL THE WHILE FROM THE NORTHEAST. SEAS WILL DECREASE FROM
SMALL CRAFT VALUES THURSDAY THEN INCREASE
CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY OUTER WATERS LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH THE INCREASING WIND FIELDS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...ONE DECENT DAY SATURDAY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS
FROM 10-15 KNOTS. SPEEDS PICK UP SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WINDS TO 20-25 KNOTS.
SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET SATURDAY INCREASING WITH THE WINDS SUNDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1225 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND PUSH INTO THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT AND THEN STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OFFSHORE
DURING THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT. COLD AND
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BRINGING THE RISK OF MORE PRECIPITATION. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WARM FRONT IS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
AND A STEADY SOUTH WIND INCREASED OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING TO NEAR 70 EXCEPT FOR THE BEACHES WHERE
THE COLD SHELF WATERS ARE KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
60S.
AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES IT WAY TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA THE
HRRR IS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING WELL AHEAD OF THE
LINE OF CONVECTION. THE HRRR SHOWS A LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING IN
TO THE FORECAST AREA THE EVENING AN SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST AS THE MARINE LAYER KNOCKS DOWN THE
CONVECTION.
AS THE FORCING OF THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AS IT REACHES THE COAST.
WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF MAXING OUT AT AROUND 1.8 AND
THE SLOW NATURE OF THE FRONT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE AREA CONTINUES UNDER A MARGINAL RISK WITH SHEAR INCREASING BY
THE MID AFTERNOON BUT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THE BEST SO
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS ISOLATED MAINLY FOR WINDS AND WITH A
LESSER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFFSHORE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. AN ELONGATED MOISTURE FEED WILL EXTEND
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WELL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. THE
FRONT WILL BE WAITING ON A DECENT MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST FOR
THE FINAL PUSH OFFSHORE. OVERALL I INCREASED POPS THURSDAY INTO
THE EVENING HOURS VIA A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SCENARIO WITH THE LATEST
GUIDANCE. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD WANE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. FOR
FRIDAY EXPECT SLOW CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AND A COLD BLUSTERY
DAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE LOWER 50S. CLEAR AND
COLD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOST AREAS SEEING LOWS AT OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...INTERESTING AND ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SATURDAY WILL BE UNEVENTFUL ENOUGH WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING BASICALLY EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE ROCKIES LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS
ENSUING AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF AND MOVES ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. THE GFS IS MOST INTERESTING AND COLDER WITH SOME FROZEN
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE VIA OUR STATE OF THE ART TOP DOWN
METHODOLOGIES. THE LATEST ECMWF...WHICH IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION
VIA CONSISTENCY IS ADVERTISING A COLD RAIN. THE SYSTEM DEFINITELY
BEARS WATCHING. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL COULD SPELL TROUBLE BY
ITSELF IF THE ANTICIPATED QPF AMOUNTS COME CLOSE WITH THE CURRENT
EVENT. BEYOND THIS... SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST TROUGHING DEVELOPS
SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE COLD AIR. A POWERFUL VORT THAT WILL
BRING THE COLDEST OF AIR LATE COULD BRING A FEW SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A
SYSTEM FOR THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST REMAINS ON THE COLD SIDE WITH A VERY TEPID AND BRIEF
WARMUP MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON WILL DETERIORATE
BACK TO MVFR/IFR THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BECOME WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG
COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
SLOWLY PUSHES OFFSHORE.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS...WITH 31
KTS ALREADY MEASURED AT KILM WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. VFR/MVFR PREVAILS
BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...LOW CIGS...AND
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT PROGGED TO
BE SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY OFFSHORE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ON THURSDAY.
BECOMING VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A FEW AREAS OF
PATCHY SEA FOG THIS MORNING. THE WINDS ARE INCREASING BUT BELOW
SMALL CRAFT AT THE BUOYS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THE WINDS AT
FRYING PAN ARE NOW IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS OF 6.9
FEET. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER. TO THE SOUTH A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL CONTINUE.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR A FEW
HOURS EARLY THURSDAY AS A FRONT TRUDGES SLOWLY TO THE EAST. SPEEDS
WILL BE 10-15 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN NORTHEAST AS THE DAY CONCLUDES. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE WILL STRENGTHEN AND SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS. BY EARLY FRIDAY SPEEDS INCREASE FURTHER FOR
A FEW HOURS TO JUST OVER 25 KNOTS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH ALL THE WHILE FROM THE NORTHEAST. SEAS WILL
DECREASE FROM SMALL CRAFT VALUES THURSDAY THEN INCREASE
CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY OUTER WATERS LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
THE INCREASING WIND FIELDS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...ONE DECENT DAY SATURDAY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS
FROM 10-15 KNOTS. SPEEDS PICK UP SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WINDS TO 20-25 KNOTS.
SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET SATURDAY INCREASING WITH THE WINDS SUNDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1023 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND PUSH INTO THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT AND THEN STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OFFSHORE
DURING THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT. COLD AND
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BRINGING THE RISK OF MORE PRECIPITATION. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WARM FRONT IS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
AND A STEADY SOUTH WIND INCREASED OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING TO NEAR 70 EXCEPT FOR THE BEACHES WHERE
THE COLD SHELF WATERS ARE KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
60S.
AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES IT WAY TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA THE
HRRR IS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING WELL AHEAD OF THE
LINE OF CONVECTION. THE HRRR SHOWS A LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING IN
TO THE FORECAST AREA THE EVENING AN SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST AS THE MARINE LAYER KNOCKS DOWN THE
CONVECTION.
AS THE FORCING OF THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AS IT REACHES THE COAST.
WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF MAXING OUT AT AROUND 1.8 AND
THE SLOW NATURE OF THE FRONT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE AREA CONTINUES UNDER A MARGINAL RISK WITH SHEAR INCREASING BY
THE MID AFTERNOON BUT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THE BEST SO
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS ISOLATED MAINLY FOR WINDS AND WITH A
LESSER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFFSHORE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. AN ELONGATED MOISTURE FEED WILL EXTEND
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WELL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. THE
FRONT WILL BE WAITING ON A DECENT MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST FOR
THE FINAL PUSH OFFSHORE. OVERALL I INCREASED POPS THURSDAY INTO
THE EVENING HOURS VIA A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SCENARIO WITH THE LATEST
GUIDANCE. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD WANE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. FOR
FRIDAY EXPECT SLOW CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AND A COLD BLUSTERY
DAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE LOWER 50S. CLEAR AND
COLD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOST AREAS SEEING LOWS AT OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...INTERESTING AND ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SATURDAY WILL BE UNEVENTFUL ENOUGH WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING BASICALLY EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE ROCKIES LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS
ENSUING AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF AND MOVES ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. THE GFS IS MOST INTERESTING AND COLDER WITH SOME FROZEN
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE VIA OUR STATE OF THE ART TOP DOWN
METHODOLOGIES. THE LATEST ECMWF...WHICH IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION
VIA CONSISTENCY IS ADVERTISING A COLD RAIN. THE SYSTEM DEFINITELY
BEARS WATCHING. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL COULD SPELL TROUBLE BY
ITSELF IF THE ANTICIPATED QPF AMOUNTS COME CLOSE WITH THE CURRENT
EVENT. BEYOND THIS... SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST TROUGHING DEVELOPS
SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE COLD AIR. A POWERFUL VORT THAT WILL
BRING THE COLDEST OF AIR LATE COULD BRING A FEW SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A
SYSTEM FOR THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST REMAINS ON THE COLD SIDE WITH A VERY TEPID AND BRIEF
WARMUP MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DETERIORATING BACK TO MVFR/IFR
THIS EVENING AS A WARM FRONT AND COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA. EXPECT MVFR/IFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
WITH A WARM FRONT PROGGED TO PUSH NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...WILL SEE LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG IMPROVE BEHIND THIS
FEATURE TO VFR. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR/IFR AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...LOW CIGS...AND AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WILL MENTION THAT SEA FOG IS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE HAVE NOT INTRODUCED IN
CURRENT FORECAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TODAY...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING TO AOB 15 KTS AND GUSTS UP
TO 25 KTS...POTENTIALLY HIGHER IN ANY THUNDERSTORM.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ON THURSDAY.
BECOMING VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A FEW AREAS OF
PATCHY SEA FOG THIS MORNING. THE WINDS ARE INCREASING BUT BELOW
SMALL CRAFT AT THE BUOYS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THE WINDS AT
FRYING PAN ARE NOW IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS OF 6.9
FEET. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER. TO THE SOUTH A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL CONTINUE.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR A FEW
HOURS EARLY THURSDAY AS A FRONT TRUDGES SLOWLY TO THE EAST. SPEEDS
WILL BE 10-15 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN NORTHEAST AS THE DAY CONCLUDES. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE WILL STRENGTHEN AND SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS. BY EARLY FRIDAY SPEEDS INCREASE FURTHER FOR
A FEW HOURS TO JUST OVER 25 KNOTS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH ALL THE WHILE FROM THE NORTHEAST. SEAS WILL
DECREASE FROM SMALL CRAFT VALUES THURSDAY THEN INCREASE
CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY OUTER WATERS LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
THE INCREASING WIND FIELDS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...ONE DECENT DAY SATURDAY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS
FROM 10-15 KNOTS. SPEEDS PICK UP SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WINDS TO 20-25 KNOTS.
SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET SATURDAY INCREASING WITH THE WINDS SUNDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1018 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP THE EAST COAST MAY SPREAD A VERY
LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW INTO SOUTHEASTERN PA TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SNOWBELT WITH
DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING BY 06Z
OVER SOUTHERN YORK AND LANCASTER...THEN MIXED RAIN AND SNOW
CHANGING TO SNOW SNOW SHORTLY AFTERWARDS AND LASTING THROUGH 13Z.
STILL EXPECTING A COASTING TO AS MUCH AS 1-2 INCHES OVER EXTREME
EASTERN PORTIONS OF LANCASTER COUNTY.
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON SCHEDULE JUST SOUTH OF
WILMINGTON NC LATE THIS EVENING WILL TRACK ALONG THE OUTER NC
BANKS OVERNIGHT AND OFFSHORE BEFORE HEADING NORTHEAST AND WELL
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY.
CLOUDS WILL TAKE A BREAK IN THE CENTRAL COS TONIGHT AS THE LLVL
FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE LESS CYCLONIC. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
SCT/ISOLD SHSN IN THE NW THO AS THE STRONG VORT MAX NEAR PA FROM
THE W. THE FLOW IS STILL OFF THE LAKE AND UPSLOPE INTO THE HIGHER
ELEVS OF PA. JUST A DUSTING THERE AS WELL. MINS WILL BE LOWEST IN
THE NW WHERE CAA BRINGS 8H TEMPS DOWN TO DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW 0C.
THE OFFSHORE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NW AND THE AXIS OF THE JET
STREAM PASSES OUR LONGITUDE EVEN BEFORE SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SNOW SHOULD SCOOT EAST OF LANCASTER COUNTY BY OR AFTER 700 AM.
IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR ON ALL FRONTS WITH THE LOW WELL OFF TO THE
NE AND VORT MAX/SHORT WAVE OVERHEAD IN THE MORNING. WILL LINGER
MENTION OF --SHSN IN THE ALLEGHENIES FOR THE MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...THE NWRLY WIND WILL PICK BACK UP. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
OUT OVER MOST OF THE CWA. TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY NEAR NORMAL FOR
MAXES WITH NIL ADVECTION AND 8H TEMPS AROUND -10C.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODERATELY AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
THE CONUS AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOW DOWN THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
PATTERN WILL TRANSITIONS TO A WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. WITH A CORRESPONDING DOWNSTREAM UPPER TROF OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
AFTER A QUIET START TO THE PERIOD THIS WEEKEND...THE WEATHER WILL
TREND COLDER AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL SHOTS
OF ARCTIC AIR AND SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION. THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN AT THIS POINT
APPEARS LOW TO MODERATE. MAIN THREAT WILL BE IN THE MONDAY TO
TUESDAY TIME FRAME...WITH POSSIBLE COASTAL DEVELOPMENT STILL
HINTED AT THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. LATEST TRENDS HOWEVER ARE
FOR DEVELOPMENT TO BE FARTHER EAST THAN YESTERDAYS SOLUTIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN ACROSS CENTRAL PA THRU 06Z WILL BE MVFR
STRATOCU DECK/SCT FLURRIES AT KBFD/KJST ASSOC WITH WEAK OROGRAPHIC
LIFT OVR THE MTNS.
FOCUS LATE TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TOWARD SE PA...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRES
LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST. ALL THE LATEST MDL DATA SUGGESTS KLNS
WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD
TO A PERIOD OF LOW /IFR/ VSBYS AT KLNS BTWN 08Z-12Z FRIDAY. LATEST
HRRR OUTPUT AS OF 03Z SUGGESTS THE SIG VIS REDUCTIONS MAY REMAIN
JUST EAST OF KLNS...BUT TOO CLOSE TO CALL ATTM. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN AT LEAST MVFR CONDS AT KBFD AND KJST FRIDAY MORNING WITH OCNL
-SHSN. LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR PRODUCTS SUGGEST
OCNL IFR CONDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT KBFD/KJST EARLY FRIDAY AM...AS
BLYR MOISTURE/-SHSN INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
MOVING IN FROM THE W.
ANY SNOW AT KLNS SHOULD END BY ARND 11Z. FOCUS WILL THEN BE ON
LINGERING STRATOCU ACROSS THE W MTNS. MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EVEN
KBFD/KJST WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDS BY AFTN...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
MON-TUE...SNOW/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY W MTNS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
OBVIOUS ICE EFFECTS AT MARIETTA WILL CONTINUE FOR QUITE A WHILE.
BUT FLOWS ARE NOT VERY HIGH. THE LOCAL STREAMS WILL START TO COME
DOWN SOME...BUT SHOW DAILY AFTN BUMPS UP AS RESIDUAL SNOW MELTS
WITH AFTN TEMPS IN THE 40S EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHERE PATCHY
SNOW LINGERS IN THE SE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1014 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP THE EAST COAST MAY SPREAD A VERY
LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW INTO SOUTHEASTERN PA TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SNOWBELT WITH
DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
EVER SO SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT IN QPF AXIS BRINGS A FEW MORE TENTHS
OF SNOW ACCUM TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY...OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE OFFING THIS EVENING.
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING THIS EVENING OVER THE CAROLINAS
WILL TRACK ALONG THE OUTER NC BANKS OVERNIGHT AND OFFSHORE BEFORE
HEADING NORTHEAST AND WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY.
LIGHT SNOW WILL BRUSH THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH DAYBREAK.
CLOUDS WILL TAKE A BREAK IN THE CENTRAL COS TONIGHT AS THE LLVL
FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE LESS CYCLONIC. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
SCT/ISOLD SHSN IN THE NW THO AS THE STRONG VORT MAX NEAR PA FROM
THE W. THE FLOW IS STILL OFF THE LAKE AND UPSLOPE INTO THE HIGHER
ELEVS OF PA. JUST A DUSTING THERE AS WELL. MINS WILL BE LOWEST IN
THE NW WHERE CAA BRINGS 8H TEMPS DOWN TO DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW 0C.
THE OFFSHORE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NW AND THE AXIS OF THE JET
STREAM PASSES OUR LONGITUDE EVEN BEFORE SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SNOW SHOULD SCOOT EAST OF LANCASTER COUNTY BY OR AFTER 700 AM.
IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR ON ALL FRONTS WITH THE LOW WELL OFF TO THE
NE AND VORT MAX/SHORT WAVE OVERHEAD IN THE MORNING. WILL LINGER
MENTION OF --SHSN IN THE ALLEGHENIES FOR THE MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...THE NWRLY WIND WILL PICK BACK UP. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
OUT OVER MOST OF THE CWA. TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY NEAR NORMAL FOR
MAXES WITH NIL ADVECTION AND 8H TEMPS AROUND -10C.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODERATELY AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
THE CONUS AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOW DOWN THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
PATTERN WILL TRANSITIONS TO A WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. WITH A CORRESPONDING DOWNSTREAM UPPER TROF OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
AFTER A QUIET START TO THE PERIOD THIS WEEKEND...THE WEATHER WILL
TREND COLDER AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL SHOTS
OF ARCTIC AIR AND SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION. THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN AT THIS POINT
APPEARS LOW TO MODERATE. MAIN THREAT WILL BE IN THE MONDAY TO
TUESDAY TIME FRAME...WITH POSSIBLE COASTAL DEVELOPMENT STILL
HINTED AT THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. LATEST TRENDS HOWEVER ARE
FOR DEVELOPMENT TO BE FARTHER EAST THAN YESTERDAYS SOLUTIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN ACROSS CENTRAL PA THRU 06Z WILL BE MVFR
STRATOCU DECK/SCT FLURRIES AT KBFD/KJST ASSOC WITH WEAK OROGRAPHIC
LIFT OVR THE MTNS.
FOCUS LATE TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TOWARD SE PA...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRES
LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST. ALL THE LATEST MDL DATA SUGGESTS KLNS
WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD
TO A PERIOD OF LOW /IFR/ VSBYS AT KLNS BTWN 08Z-12Z FRIDAY. LATEST
HRRR OUTPUT AS OF 03Z SUGGESTS THE SIG VIS REDUCTIONS MAY REMAIN
JUST EAST OF KLNS...BUT TOO CLOSE TO CALL ATTM. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN AT LEAST MVFR CONDS AT KBFD AND KJST FRIDAY MORNING WITH OCNL
-SHSN. LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR PRODUCTS SUGGEST
OCNL IFR CONDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT KBFD/KJST EARLY FRIDAY AM...AS
BLYR MOISTURE/-SHSN INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
MOVING IN FROM THE W.
ANY SNOW AT KLNS SHOULD END BY ARND 11Z. FOCUS WILL THEN BE ON
LINGERING STRATOCU ACROSS THE W MTNS. MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EVEN
KBFD/KJST WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDS BY AFTN...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
MON-TUE...SNOW/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY W MTNS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
OBVIOUS ICE EFFECTS AT MARIETTA WILL CONTINUE FOR QUITE A WHILE.
BUT FLOWS ARE NOT VERY HIGH. THE LOCAL STREAMS WILL START TO COME
DOWN SOME...BUT SHOW DAILY AFTN BUMPS UP AS RESIDUAL SNOW MELTS
WITH AFTN TEMPS IN THE 40S EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHERE PATCHY
SNOW LINGERS IN THE SE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
806 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP THE EAST COAST MAY SPREAD A VERY
LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW INTO SOUTHEASTERN PA TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SNOWBELT WITH
DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
EVER SO SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT IN QPF AXIS BRINGS A FEW MORE TENTHS
OF SNOW ACCUM TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY...OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE OFFING THIS EVENING.
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING THIS EVENING OVER THE CAROLINAS
WILL TRACK ALONG THE OUTER NC BANKS OVERNIGHT AND OFFSHORE BEFORE
HEADING NORTHEAST AND WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY.
LIGHT SNOW WILL BRUSH THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH DAYBREAK.
CLOUDS WILL TAKE A BREAK IN THE CENTRAL COS TONIGHT AS THE LLVL
FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE LESS CYCLONIC. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
SCT/ISOLD SHSN IN THE NW THO AS THE STRONG VORT MAX NEAR PA FROM
THE W. THE FLOW IS STILL OFF THE LAKE AND UPSLOPE INTO THE HIGHER
ELEVS OF PA. JUST A DUSTING THERE AS WELL. MINS WILL BE LOWEST IN
THE NW WHERE CAA BRINGS 8H TEMPS DOWN TO DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW 0C.
THE OFFSHORE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NW AND THE AXIS OF THE JET
STREAM PASSES OUR LONGITUDE EVEN BEFORE SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SNOW SHOULD SCOOT EAST OF LANCASTER COUNTY BY OR AFTER 700 AM.
IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR ON ALL FRONTS WITH THE LOW WELL OFF TO THE
NE AND VORT MAX/SHORT WAVE OVERHEAD IN THE MORNING. WILL LINGER
MENTION OF --SHSN IN THE ALLEGHENIES FOR THE MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...THE NWRLY WIND WILL PICK BACK UP. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
OUT OVER MOST OF THE CWA. TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY NEAR NORMAL FOR
MAXES WITH NIL ADVECTION AND 8H TEMPS AROUND -10C.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODERATELY AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
THE CONUS AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOW DOWN THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
PATTERN WILL TRANSITIONS TO A WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. WITH A CORRESPONDING DOWNSTREAM UPPER TROF OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
AFTER A QUIET START TO THE PERIOD THIS WEEKEND...THE WEATHER WILL
TREND COLDER AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL SHOTS
OF ARCTIC AIR AND SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION. THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN AT THIS POINT
APPEARS LOW TO MODERATE. MAIN THREAT WILL BE IN THE MONDAY TO
TUESDAY TIME FRAME...WITH POSSIBLE COASTAL DEVELOPMENT STILL
HINTED AT THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. LATEST TRENDS HOWEVER ARE
FOR DEVELOPMENT TO BE FARTHER EAST THAN YESTERDAYS SOLUTIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING WILL BE
MVFR STRATOCU DECK/SCT FLURRIES AT KBFD/KJST ASSOC WITH WEAK OROGRAPHIC
LIFT OVR THE MTNS.
FOCUS LATE TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TOWARD SE PA...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRES
LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST. ALL THE LATEST MDL DATA SUGGESTS KLNS
WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD
TO A PERIOD OF LOW /IFR/ VSBYS AT KLNS BTWN 07Z-11Z FRIDAY. CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SNOW AT KMDT...BUT BLEND OF AVAILABLE
MDLS SUGGESTS THIS IS A LOW PROBABILITY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
AT LEAST MVFR CONDS AT KBFD AND KJST LATE TONIGHT WITH OCNL
-SHSN. LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR PRODUCTS SUGGEST
OCNL IFR CONDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT KBFD/KJST EARLY FRIDAY AM...AS
-SHSN INCREASE UPON APPROACH OF DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM
THE W.
ANY SNOW AT KLNS SHOULD END BY ARND 11Z. FOCUS WILL THEN BE ON
LINGERING STRATOCU ACROSS THE W MTNS. MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EVEN
KBFD/KJST WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDS BY AFTN...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
MON-TUE...SNOW/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY W MTNS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
OBVIOUS ICE EFFECTS AT MARIETTA WILL CONTINUE FOR QUITE A WHILE.
BUT FLOWS ARE NOT VERY HIGH. THE LOCAL STREAMS WILL START TO COME
DOWN SOME...BUT SHOW DAILY AFTN BUMPS UP AS RESIDUAL SNOW MELTS
WITH AFTN TEMPS IN THE 40S EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHERE PATCHY
SNOW LINGERS IN THE SE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
712 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP THE EAST COAST MAY SPREAD A VERY
LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW INTO SOUTHEASTERN PA TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SNOWBELT WITH
DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE 150KT JET STREAK ALOFT WILL TILT TO NEARLY N-S ORIENTATION AND
THE FAVORABLE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF THE STREAK SHOULD LEAD TO
DEVELOPMENT OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG AN OLD FRONT OFF THE
EAST COAST TONIGHT. THE SFC LOW WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST FAR
ENOUGH TO MAKE VERY LITTLE IMPACT ON THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW SLIDE IN FROM THE EAST
OVERNIGHT. MOST MODEL AND SREF MEAN QPF DO MAKE MEAS PRECIP OVER
FAR ERN LANC CO. THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS JUST HOW FAR DOES
THIS BACK/NWRN EDGE OF THE SNOW GET INTO THE CWA - IF AT ALL. THE
DRYING NNW FLOW WILL KEEP THE EDGE SHARP AND IT IS THAT CHALLENGE
WHICH AWAITS US TONIGHT. WITH THE PREPONDERANCE OF EVIDENCE
POINTING TO A GUILTY VERDICT /VERY MINOR ACCUM/...WILL KEEP THE
DUSTING TO AN INCH ACCUMS IN THE CURR FCST FOR LNAC CO. HAVE
INCHED POPS UP TO THE WEST A LITTLE INTO YORK CO...MAINLY IN
RESPONSE TO THE MORE-WET 12Z RUNS. THE STRONG JET MAX IS THE
BIGGEST MASS-FEATURE TO MOVE THE FORECAST TO A MORE DEVELOPED
SYSTEM. IT MAY BE A GOOD TREND TO FOLLOW...BUT A CONSERVATIVE BUMP
IN POPS TO EVEN CHC LEVELS IS BEST WHEN DEALING WHEN ADDING THE
SIMPLE YET REACTION-CAUSING /SNOW/ WORD TO THE FORECAST.
AGAIN...ALL THIS IS VERY HEAVY ON CONTINUITY AND ALSO IN
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES THINKING.
CLOUDS WILL TAKE A BREAK IN THE CENTRAL COS TONIGHT AS THE LLVL
FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE LESS CYCLONIC. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION
OF SCT/ISOLD SHSN IN THE NW THO AS THE STRONG VORT MAX NEAR PA
FROM THE W. THE FLOW IS STILL OFF THE LAKE AND UPSLOPE INTO THE
HIGHER ELEVS OF PA. JUST A DUSTING THERE AS WELL. MINS WILL BE
LOWEST IN THE NW WHERE CAA BRINGS 8H TEMPS DOWN TO DOUBLE DIGITS
BELOW 0C.
THE OFFSHORE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NW AND THE AXIS OF THE JET
STREAM PASSES OUR LONGITUDE EVEN BEFORE SUNRISE. SO...IMPROVEMENT
SHOULD BEGIN AND ANY LIGHT SNOW IN THE EAST SHOULD STOP IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR ON ALL FRONTS WITH THE LOW WELL OFF TO THE
NE AND VORT MAX/SHORT WAVE OVERHEAD IN THE MORNING. WILL LINGER
MENTION OF --SHSN IN THE ALLEGHENIES FOR THE MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...THE NWRLY WIND WILL PICK BACK UP. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
OUT OVER MOST OF THE CWA. TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY NEAR NORMAL FOR
MAXES WITH NIL ADVECTION AND 8H TEMPS AROUND -10C.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODERATELY AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
THE CONUS AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOW DOWN THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
PATTERN WILL TRANSITIONS TO A WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. WITH A CORRESPONDING DOWNSTREAM UPPER TROF OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
AFTER A QUIET START TO THE PERIOD THIS WEEKEND...THE WEATHER WILL
TREND COLDER AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL SHOTS
OF ARCTIC AIR AND SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION. THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN AT THIS POINT
APPEARS LOW TO MODERATE. MAIN THREAT WILL BE IN THE MONDAY TO
TUESDAY TIME FRAME...WITH POSSIBLE COASTAL DEVELOPMENT STILL
HINTED AT THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. LATEST TRENDS HOWEVER ARE
FOR DEVELOPMENT TO BE FARTHER EAST THAN YESTERDAYS SOLUTIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING WILL BE
MVFR STRATOCU DECK/SCT FLURRIES AT KBFD/KJST ASSOC WITH WEAK OROGRAPHIC
LIFT OVR THE MTNS.
FOCUS LATE TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TOWARD SE PA...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRES
LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST. ALL THE LATEST MDL DATA SUGGESTS KLNS
WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD
TO A PERIOD OF LOW /IFR/ VSBYS AT KLNS BTWN 07Z-11Z FRIDAY. CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SNOW AT KMDT...BUT BLEND OF AVAILABLE
MDLS SUGGESTS THIS IS A LOW PROBABILITY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
AT LEAST MVFR CONDS AT KBFD AND KJST LATE TONIGHT WITH OCNL
-SHSN. LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR PRODUCTS SUGGEST
OCNL IFR CONDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT KBFD/KJST EARLY FRIDAY AM...AS
-SHSN INCREASE UPON APPROACH OF DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM
THE W.
ANY SNOW AT KLNS SHOULD END BY ARND 11Z. FOCUS WILL THEN BE ON
LINGERING STRATOCU ACROSS THE W MTNS. MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EVEN
KBFD/KJST WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDS BY AFTN...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
MON-TUE...SNOW/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY W MTNS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
OBVIOUS ICE EFFECTS AT MARIETTA WILL CONTINUE FOR QUITE A WHILE.
BUT FLOWS ARE NOT VERY HIGH. THE LOCAL STREAMS WILL START TO COME
DOWN SOME...BUT SHOW DAILY AFTN BUMPS UP AS RESIDUAL SNOW MELTS
WITH AFTN TEMPS IN THE 40S EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHERE PATCHY
SNOW LINGERS IN THE SE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
952 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM ON SUNDAY WELL OFFSHORE ALONG THIS FRONT AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM EST...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE LATEST RAP 500 MB
HEIGHT PROGNOSTICS DEPICT THE POTENT UPPER VORTICITY LOBE ON THE
DOORSTEP OF THE SW NC MOUNTAINS LATE THIS EVENING. RADAR CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE SOME INTERMITTENT 5 TO 10 DBZ REFLECTIVITY RETURNS OVER
OUR AREA...BUT WITHOUT ANY COHERENT SHOWERS YET. THIS DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS TO BE SLOWER THAN THE LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS...BUT WITH
MODEL DEVELOPMENT STILL MORE SOLIDLY FOCUSED ON THE 06Z TO 10Z
PERIOD FOR MOST OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...PROFILES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
COOL AND NEARLY ALL THE MODELS NOW HAVE SOME MOISTURE DEVELOPING
VERTICALLY TOWARD THE SNOW GROWTH REGION OVERNIGHT AND ALLOWING
SHOWERS TO FORM...WITH A PTYPE MIX OVER TO SNOW UNDER ANY SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WILL GENERALLY STAY
THE COURSE ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...EXCEPT FOR YET ANOTHER SLIGHT
UPWARD ADJUSTMENT ON POP INTO A MORE SOLID CHANCE RANGE TOWARD THE
CLT METRO AREA. STILL FEEL A QUICK DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT UNDER ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT MUCH MORE LIKELY IN THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE THE MORE PERSISTENT NW FLOW...BETTER
MOISTURE...AND COLDER AIR/SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL EXIST.
NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE WIND
ADVISORY...BUT WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS NOW EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE AREA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS RAPIDLY BETWEEN THE
APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST AND THE DEEPENING NC
COASTAL LOW TO THE EAST.
OTHERWISE...AN UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND A SUNNY WINTER DAY. THE WINDS WILL
SLOWLY ABATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...ON SATURDAY...AN AMPLIFIED H5 TROF WILL
RIPPLE TOWARD THE SRN. APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SHORT
RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE TROF MAY CLOSE OFF AND PASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE
AGREES THAT THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SUPPORT
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT. MODELS ALSO AGREE
THAT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. I WILL INDICATE A DRY FORECAST FORECAST FOR
SAT...WITH INCREASING SKY COVER. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN THE
DAY WITH LOW 20S ACROSS THE MTNS TO UPPER 20S EAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE MID 40S WITHIN MTN VALLEYS TO AROUND
50.
ON SUNDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW...SHORT WAVE
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER REGION. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GULF COAST WILL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THIS
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROF DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES
LATE IN THE WEEKEND THRU MONDAY. THIS RESULTS IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN TROF IN THE UPPER LEVELS. AS THE
TROF DIGS ACROSS THE OH AND MID MS VALLEY...STRONG MID AND UPPER
LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...GENERALLY STRONGEST MONDAY MORNING. THE QG FORCING
SHUD SUPPLY DECENT VERTICAL MOTION...AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH 850-500MB RATES ABOVE 7C/KM ON ALL THE
OP MODELS...AND EVEN SOME CONVECTIVE INSTBY IN THE GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME STACKED WITH DEEP
LAYER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP THE CWFA WITHIN THE SE QUADRANT
OF THE CIRCULATION. SO UPSLOPE WILL BE STRONGEST ON SW-FACING SLOPES
OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NC MOUNTAINS. TEMPS AND THICKNESSES WILL
START OUT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH SNOW LEVELS
LIKELY TO BE MAINLY ABOVE 3500 FT. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY AND STRONGER FORCING IS REALIZED...WET-BULB EFFECTS MAY
PRODUCE SOME MEASURABLE SNOW IN THE VALLEYS. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
MAY ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS...BUT WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...NO SNOW IS EXPECTED.
MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF WILL CROSS
THE CWFA...PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING...AND ALSO STEEP LAPSE RATES. THICKNESSES ARE COOLER THAN
MONDAY...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP
WILL LIKELY BE MAINLY SNOW OR PERHAPS A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH/EAST OF
I-85. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT THE BULK OF ANY QPF TO BE MAINLY IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY MORNING...AND STAY WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS THRU TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MODERATE ABOVE 3500 FT...AND GENERALLY LIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS
BELOW 3500 FT. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE ON TUESDAY...THE NC
FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT MAY SEE LIGHT ACCUMS AS WELL.
TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...THE UPPER FLOW DEAMPLIFIES...BUT REMAIN
IN A WESTERN RIDGE-EASTERN TROF SETUP THRU THE REST OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...AS
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION...THEN SHUD GRADUALLY
MODERATE BACK TOWARD NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...PESKY MVFR CIGS FINALLY LET GO EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...APPROACHING UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH SLOWLY
DEEPENING MOISTURE SHOULD LOCK LOWER END VFR CIGS IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE PASSING SHORTWAVE THAT PEAKS
FORCING OVER THE KCLT AREA MAINLY 07Z TO 11Z. WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE A TEMPO FOR SNOW SHOWERS AS THE COLDER THICKENESSES/TEMPS
SHOULD BE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST BY THAT TIME...ALONG WITH SOME
EVAPORATIVE COOLING UNDER ANY SHOWERS. THE NRLY FLOW GRADIENT WILL
STEADILY INCREASE AS WELL...AND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS THE SFC LOW MOVES UP THE COAST...THEN SLOWLY ABATE
THROUGH THE AFTN. SOME LIGHT DAYBREAK SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT UNDER ANY BRIEFLY HEAVY SHOWERS...BUT THE EVENT
DURATION WILL BE TOO SHORT FOR ANY ADVISORY/AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING
PRODUCTS AT PRESENT.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AND LOWER AS THE PASSING UPPER
WAVE RAPIDLY INCREASES FORCING IN THE COLUMN INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL WRAP WESTWARD FROM THE COASTAL SYSTEM TO
PERMIT ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY SNOW...AT TIMES OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR ANYTHING
MORE THAN A VCSH MENTION AT THIS POINT. NW FLOW MOISTURE COULD ALLOW
SNOW SHOWERS TO FLIRT WITH KAVL AS WELL...BUT THESE SHOULD STAY
CLOSER TO THE TN BORDER. WIND GUSTS WILL STEADILY DEVELOP AS THE
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 POSSIBLE AT
KAVL AND INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS. THE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY
RELAX THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SKIES CLEARING.
OUTLOOK...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A STRONG
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
03-09Z 09-15Z 15-21Z 21-00Z
KCLT HIGH 85% HIGH 88% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL LOW 55% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 85% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ033-049-050-501-
503-505.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
436 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS OUR REGION
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE PIEDMONT
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE OVERHEAD FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT AN ACTIVE WX DAY IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS MORNING...DEEP
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED FROM MICHIGAN TO IOWA...WITH COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SWD INTO MID TN. AHEAD OF THIS 8H LOW LVL JET IS SCREAMING
AT 60KTS+ OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A WEDGE HOLDS IN PLACE OVER
MOST OF OUR CWA AND THIS IS ACTING TO BLOCK STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO
MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS AS WELL AS THE
FAR SW CWA REMAIN ON THE EDGE OF THE WEDGE SO WIND ADVISORY GUSTS TO
50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 10AM. BY THIS TIME...THE SFC WINDS
WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WHICH IS WHEN THE DOWNSLOPING
EFFECTS OF THE WINDS TEND TO LESSEN OVER THE MTN EMPIRE.
ANOTHER ISSUE TODAY WILL BE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. UNSEASONABLY HIGH
PWATS WILL PUNCH IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THIS STRONG LOW LVL JET.
PWATS WILL BE IN THE 1.25 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE RUNNING 3-4 SD ABOVE
NORMAL. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN GETTING
THIS DOWN PRETTY WELL...BUT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING ARISE...WITH OUR
LOCAL WRF AND THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF SLOWER IN PUSHING THE RAINFALL
ACROSS...WHILE THE LATER HRRR/HIGHRES ARW AND GFS ARE QUICKER. THINK
WITH A STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT THIS WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THE
MODEL CAMPS. WILL SEE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS WORK INTO THE WV MTNS BY
12-14Z...THEN SHIFT EAST AS NARROW DEEP HEAVY RAIN LINE EMBEDDED
WITH THE GENERAL MODERATE SHOWERS TO THE BLUE RIDGE BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH THE GROUND REMAINING SATURATED FROM
SNOWMELT AND 6 HR FFG RUNNING UNDER 1.5 INCHES IN SOME
LOCATIONS...WE COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. THINKING IT WILL
BE MORE ENHANCED ALONG AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY...WITH THE SRLY
JET IN PLACE. AS SUCH AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO HAVE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH OUT FOR THE BLUE RIDGE OF NC INTO VA...WITH POTENTIAL FOR 2"+
INCHES OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE SRN BLUE RIDGE FROM FLOYD/PATRICK
SOUTHWEST TO BOONE/BLOWING ROCK NC.
WPC HAS INDICATED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER MOST IF
NOT ALL OF THE CWA...BUT OUTSIDE THE BLUE RIDGE THINK ANYTHING WILL
BE ISOLATED.
THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SITUATED FROM THE NC PIEDMONT
TOWARD SOUTHSIDE VA BY AFTERNOON...SO ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
FOR FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF A ROCKY MOUNT VA TO YADKINVILLE
NC LINE. SVR THREAT IS MARGINAL AT BEST EAST WITH STRONG WINDS THE
MAIN THREAT...BUT THINK LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT SVR
CONVECTION. ADDED GUSTY WINDS TO THE FORECAST WITH THE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHSIDE VA AREA AND NW NC PIEDMONT.
WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO ERODE FAIRLY QUICKLY ONCE SFC FRONT MOVES INTO
THE MTNS THIS MORNING...SO DID A NON-DIURNAL CURVE GIVEN WARMING
TEMPS THIS MORNING IN THE WESTERN CWA...THEN COOLING OFF THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE RAIN ENDING LATE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MILD AND
SPRINGLIKE WITH LOWER TO MID 60S OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
TONIGHT...THE FRONT SLOWS UP AS IT ELONGATED PARALLEL TO THE UPPER
FLOW...BUT SHOULD BE EAST OF US BY MIDNIGHT. HUNG ONTO HIGHER POPS
THIS EVENING FROM LYNCHBURG AND DANVILLE EAST WHILE DRYING THINGS
OUT WEST. SHOULD SEE DRIER PUNCHING INTO THE PIEDMONT BEFORE DAWN
WHILE UPSLOPE STARTS TO GENERATE LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WEST.
COLD AIR MAY LAG GIVEN SLOWNESS OF UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S EAST TO LOWER 30S WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 237 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL STALL
ALONG THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER
THE OHIO-TENN VALLEYS BY THURSDAY EVENING...GENERATING A SURFACE
REFLECTION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS REFLECTION MAY BUCKLE
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE COASTAL PIEDMONT THURSDAY EVENING. THE 00Z
NAM MOVES AN AREA OF RAIN OVER THE VA/NC PIEDMONT WHILE OTHER MODELS
REMAIN DRY. WE WILL RUN WITH THE DRIER SOLUTION AS WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW PROMOTES DRYING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY MORNING...PUSHING THE SURFACE
REFLECTION AND MOISTURE OUT TO SEA. A CHILLY SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN
BUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG WESTERN SLOPES OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. THE 00Z GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL DISPLAYING UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH A MAINLY WEST WIND AND
MOISTURE BECOMING VERY SHALLOW THROUGH THE DAY...WILL ONLY CARRY
CHANCE POPS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW UP TO AN INCH IN WESTERN
GREENBRIER.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE BREEZY WHILE TEMPERATURES RUN
NEAR NORMAL. AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEND TEMPERATURES
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DRIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL START A
PERIOD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD MODERATE SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY...BUT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS THAT WILL WEAKEN THE WARMING TREND. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...TWO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS APPROACH THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. THE NORTHERN ONE WILL CROSS OVER QUEBEC AND THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE SHOULD MOVE ALONG THE GULF
COAST. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODELS KEEP THIS SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
IN PLACE. THE SOUTHERN TROUGH WILL GENERATE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...AND TRACK IT TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM
INTENSIFIES. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPEARS TO STAY JUST OFFSHORE
AND NOT IMPACT THE CWA.
BY SUNDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EMERGE WITHIN THE
NORTHERN STREAM OVER THE DAKOTAS...AND DIG SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
ACCOMPANY THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH...THAT WILL SPARK AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ON
MONDAY...TO KEEP THE APPROACHING MOISTURE FROM THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AS
RAIN...EXCEPT FOR THE COLDER WESTERN SLOPES WHERE IT MAY START AS
SNOW. ONCE A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE PRECIPITATION WOULD TURN OVER TO ALL SNOW WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SINCE THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY DUE
TO THE MODELS DIVERGING ON THE TRACK OF THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM...JUST
CHANCE POPS WERE UTILIZED.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1141 PM EST TUESDAY...
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SHAPED POPS/WEATHER IN TAF TOWARDS HIGHRES MODELS SLOWER TIMING.
BELIEVE THE HRRR CAPTURED RAIN AND TIMING THE BEST. WARMER AIR
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER CEILINGS/VISBYS
OVERNIGHT WITH ALL TAF LOCATIONS AT IFR CEILINGS BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AND MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL KEEP WINDS GUSTY AT BLF
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND GUSTY WINDS OF 15-25KTS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AT THE REMAINING TAF
SITES. THE COLD FRONT ISN`T EXPECTED TO CROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES...WIND
DIRECTIONS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS
SLOWLY SUBSIDING. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING REACHING THE COAST BY EARLY
THURSDAY.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE TAF
PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
BY LATE THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TO PROVIDE
COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS... AND ALSO PROVIDE A RECOVERY TO VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
UNSEASONABLY HIGH PWATS...STRONG LOW LVL JET AND SATURATED GROUNDS
COMBINED WITH SLOWER MOVING LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS TODAY.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM TODAY.
EXPECT THE HEAVIER RAINFALL TO OCCUR IN THE 9AM TO 4 PM TIME
FRAME. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VARIES ACROSS RIVER FORECAST CENTER
BOUNDARIES...BUT LEANING TOWARD THE LOWER THRESHOLD OF 1.3 TO 1.5
INCHES OF RAIN IN 6 HRS TO CAUSE PROBLEMS. COULD SEE URBAN
FLOODING AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IN THE BOONE NC AREA...AND
POSSIBLY IN ROANOKE. IF THE SYSTEM SPEEDS UP...THE FLOOD THREAT
IS GOING TO BE LESS...BUT GIVEN UPSTREAM TRENDS AND THE STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LVLS WHICH WILL RUN MORE
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...THINK SLOWER SCENARIO IS MORE LIKELY.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR DOWNSTREAM RIVERS LATER INTO
TONIGHT/THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY THE JAMES/ROANOKE AND DAN RIVER
BASINS. POTENTIAL PER 12Z SREF FOR THE GREENBRIER RIVER AT
ALDERSON TO FLOOD. THIS IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM GIVEN THERE IS
STILL SOME SNOW COVER UPSTREAM OVER THE MTNS OF ERN WV. BUT AT
THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH
IN WV.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
MAINTENANCE WAS BEEN CONDUCTED ON THE KFCX RADAR TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME TRANSMITTER AND RECEIVER
ALARMS...SO THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THE RADAR COULD GO DOWN.
TECHNICIANS WILL LOOK AT IT AGAIN TODAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ015>017-
022>024-032>035.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007-009-015.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ001>003-018-
019.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...CF/KK
HYDROLOGY...PM/WP
EQUIPMENT...PM/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1141 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL REMAIN
WEDGED AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY AS THE WINTER STORM ADVANCES NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO EASTERN CANADA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1125 PM EST TUESDAY...
ADJUSTED POPS FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SLOWED THE
ONSET OF RAIN...AND TWEAKED POPS TOWARDS LATEST HRRR SOLUTION. THE
AREA OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN
SHRINKING TONIGHT. ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM TO FAR
WEST MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN IN A FEW
LOCATION WITH CURRENT SURFACE OBS. USED HOURLY TEMPERATURES FOR
CALCULATION OF OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.
AS OF 830 PM EST TUESDAY...
EXPANDED WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE MERCER SOUTHWARD TO WATAGUA
COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA FOR THE SOUTHEAST WINDS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE COUNTIES TEND TO BE OUR FAVORED
LOCATIONS FOR THE STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS. A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST LOCATIONS FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS WOULD BE AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. ONE OF THE HINDERING FACTORS WILL BE IF THE
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION/CLOUD LAYER WILL STOP SOME OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH THE
CURRENT OBS AND MODEL TRENDS. THE HIRESW-ARW AND RNK WRFARW
AND HRRR HAVE A SLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE RAIN TONIGHT. DECIDED
TO LOWER POPS FOR THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...RAIN WILL ARRIVE FOR THE WEST AND SPREAD
EAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA. MORE CHANGES LATER TONIGHT....
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS NOSED DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS WITH SHALLOW STABLE LAYER PROMOTING NEAR SATURATED
CONDITIONS BELOW 800 MB. CLOUDS ARE THE LOWEST AND THICKEST ALONG
THE APPALACHIAN CREST FROM THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NC NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE NRV OF VA AND INTO SOUTHEAST WV. CLOUD BASES WERE
HIGHER ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND INTO THE PIEDMONT...THE DRY
NORTHEAST WIND EVEN PROMOTING SOME CLEARING ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN AND EASTERN VA.
RAIN THREAT TO THIS POINT HAS BEEN MINIMAL WITH THE ONLY REPORTS
OF PRECIPITATION COMING FROM THE RIDGE TOPS NEAR THE APPALACHIAN
CREST WHERE DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BUT
WEAKEN AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE ACTUAL FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF
CROSSING THE MS RIVER VALLEY...TRAILING FROM LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER IOWA. THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE GREAT LAKES BY DAWN WEDNESDAY...THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO OUR REGION...STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION PER INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO OVERRUN THE
COOL WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL
SHOWERS. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO BEGIN THE PROCESS OF
ERODING THE COOL WEDGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN STEADY OR RISING
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT RIDGE TOP LEVEL CLOSER TO
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION.
THE MAIN EMPHASIS FOR RAIN WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AS 800MB LOW LVL JET STREAKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FEEDING HIGHER PWATS INTO THE AREA. AS SUCH WILL SEE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN PER INCREASING UPSLOPE AND OVERRUNNING WIND
FLOW...AND IN ADDITION TO THE ARRIVAL OF A LINE OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE
NEARING OUR WRN CWA BORDER BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR COVERAGE OF
RAIN TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THE
BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA ENGULFED IN
A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN BY 12Z/7AM WED.
DONT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WITH THE PASSING
LINE OF CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS A VERY DYNAMIC
SYSTEM...BUT THE OVERALL INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED FOR OUR CWA
PER THE LINGERING STABLE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE APPALACHIANS. ATTM WILL ENTERTAIN A WIND THREAT PRIMARILY
PRIMARILY FOR NON CONVECTIVE CONCERNS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIAN DIVIDE...SPECIFICALLY TAZEWELL AND SMYTH COUNTIES
WHERE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE DUE TO
SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. THERE MAY
ALSO BE SOME RIDGETOP GUSTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE FARTHER EAST ABOVE
THE STABLE WEDGE...BUT IT APPEARS THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH
COVERAGE TO JUSTIFY A WIND ADVISORY ATTM.
MODEL QPF HAS BEEN TRENDING UP WITH THIS SYSTEM. PLEASE SEE HYDRO
SECTION OF THIS AFD FOR DETAILS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST TUESDAY...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE RAIN SHOWERS TO SUBSIDE IN THE
PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE...COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ENSUE...AND SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW THAT THE WIND
WILL NOT QUITE BE FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT RATHER FROM THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST. THIS SETUP IS NOT AS IDEAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...SO
ONLY A LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED.
BY THURSDAY...CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE...ALTHOUGH NOT SO
QUICKLY IN THE WESTERN SLOPES AND IN THE PIEDMONT EAST OF A LINE
FROM LYNCHBURG TO DANVILLE. THE ECMWF SOLUTION MOVES THE COLD FRONT
SLOWER TOWARD THE EAST COAST THAN THE GFS...AND ALSO TRIES TO
DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO BUCKLE SOME MOISTURE BACK TOWARD
THE PIEDMONT BY EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. IT SEEMS THAT THE ECMWF MAY BE
TOO SLOW...SO THE FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS SOLUTION WAS
FAVORED IN THIS FORECAST. AS A RESULT...JUST DRY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO THE EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FINALLY BUILD OVERHEAD AFTER MIDNIGHT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR EVERYWHERE IN THE
CWA...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE SUNNY BUT STILL COOL. THE HIGH SHOULD SHIFT OVER
THE PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAY NOT
COOL AS MUCH DUE TO A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND THE FLOW SLOWLY TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WERE GENERALLY HELD ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE...WHILE
LOW TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT BELOW MOS GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DRIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL START A
PERIOD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD MODERATE SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY...BUT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS THAT WILL WEAKEN THE WARMING TREND. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...TWO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS APPROACH THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. THE NORTHERN ONE WILL CROSS OVER QUEBEC AND THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE SHOULD MOVE ALONG THE GULF
COAST. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODELS KEEP THIS SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
IN PLACE. THE SOUTHERN TROUGH WILL GENERATE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...AND TRACK IT TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM
INTENSIFIES. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPEARS TO STAY JUST OFFSHORE
AND NOT IMPACT THE CWA.
BY SUNDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EMERGE WITHIN THE
NORTHERN STREAM OVER THE DAKOTAS...AND DIG SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
ACCOMPANY THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH...THAT WILL SPARK AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ON
MONDAY...TO KEEP THE APPROACHING MOISTURE FROM THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AS
RAIN...EXCEPT FOR THE COLDER WESTERN SLOPES WHERE IT MAY START AS
SNOW. ONCE A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE PRECIPITATION WOULD TURN OVER TO ALL SNOW WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SINCE THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY DUE
TO THE MODELS DIVERGING ON THE TRACK OF THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM...JUST
CHANCE POPS WERE UTILIZED.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1141 PM EST TUESDAY...
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SHAPED POPS/WEATHER IN TAF TOWARDS HIGHRES MODELS SLOWER TIMING.
BELIEVE THE HRRR CAPTURED RAIN AND TIMING THE BEST. WARMER AIR
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER CEILINGS/VISBYS
OVERNIGHT WITH ALL TAF LOCATIONS AT IFR CEILINGS BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AND MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL KEEP WINDS GUSTY AT BLF
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND GUSTY WINDS OF 15-25KTS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AT THE REMAINING TAF
SITES. THE COLD FRONT ISNT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES...WIND
DIRECTIONS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS
SLOWLY SUBSIDING. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING REACHING THE COAST BY EARLY
THURSDAY.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE TAF
PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
BY LATE THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TO PROVIDE
COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS... AND ALSO PROVIDE A RECOVERY TO VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING HIGHER FOR QPF WITH WEDNESDAYS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.75 TO 1.25...WITH SOME ISOLATED
1.50 INCH AMOUNTS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS SORT OF RAINFALL WILL
GENERATE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA STREAMS...POTENTIALLY TO NEAR
BANKFULL IN SOME INSTANCES. IF TRENDS CONTINUE TO GO HIGHER THEN A
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 100 PM EST TUESDAY...
MAINTENANCE HAS BEEN CONDUCTED ON THE KFCX RADAR. THE RADAR IS
BACK UP AND RUNNING BUT MAY CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE INTERMITTENT
OUTAGES.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/PM
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...CF/KK
HYDROLOGY...PM
EQUIPMENT...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1125 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
PRIMARY SNOW BAND FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS LIFTED NORTH AND INTO
EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WHILE IN A RELATIVE
LULL THIS EVENING...THERE HAVE BEEN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW MIXED AT
TIMES WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN/SLEET. SOME AREAS HAVE SEEN
A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE...RESULTING IN SLICK CONDITIONS. STILL SEEING
SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WEST OF THE MS RIVER...BUT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEEN LIMITED...SO LIKELY SEEING MORE OF A DRIFTING
THAN BLOWING SCENARIO.
03.03Z ANALYSIS SHOWS THE RESPONSIBLE SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL IA. TO THE NORTHWEST...THERE IS STRONG 925 TO 850
HPA FRONTOGENESIS AND THIS ALIGNS WELL WITH A MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW BAND FROM JUST EAST OF OMAHA TO CHARLES CITY. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS NOT HANDLING THIS SNOW BAND WELL...BUT FOLLOWING THE LOW-
LEVEL FORCING...THIS SNOW BAND SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE UPPER
MS RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 1SM AT TIMES...SO SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE. THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED
BY RATHER STRONG OMEGA IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE PER RAP BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. ALL SAID...LOOK FOR ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW
TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. BECAUSE
OF THIS...WILL NOT MAKE ANY HEADLINE CHANGES AT THIS TIME...
ALTHOUGH CERTAIN PORTIONS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 12Z
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
THE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES TO MAKE NORTHWARD PROGRESS ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH WHILE THE SECONDARY DEFORMATION BAND TAKES
SHAPE FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE 02.12Z
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF SHOWING A FRONTOGENESIS BAND
SETTING UP IN THIS REGION ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND SHOWING THIS TO BE ON THE WEAK SIDE. SO WHILE IT WILL
CONTINUE TO SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THIS DEFORMATION
AREA...ACCUMULATIONS UNDER THIS MAY ONLY BE A COUPLE OF INCHES AT
BEST.
FARTHER TO THE EAST OVER NORTHEAST IOWA INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...THE CONCERN STILL REMAINS WHETHER THERE WILL BE A LOSS
OF ICE IN THE DRY SLOT. THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE SHOULD
BE A TOTAL LOSS OF ICE OVER THIS AREA BUT CONCERNED THIS MAY NOT
BE OCCURRING. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES FROM SATELLITE DATA INDICATE
ICE IS STILL IN THE CLOUDS DOWN TO ABOUT CENTRAL IOWA AND THEN
THERE LOOKS TO A LOSS OF ICE. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS
LOSS OF ICE COMING INTO THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS FOR A CHANGE OVER
TO SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING RAIN. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME
ICING WITH A GLAZE OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES PAST THE AREA...THE WINDS WILL TURN MORE
TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP. WIND GUSTS OVERNIGHT FROM
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
SHOULD GET BACK INTO THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE TO PRODUCE SOME
BLOWING SNOW. JUST HOW MUCH BLOWING SNOW OCCURS COULD BE IMPACTED
ON WHETHER THE FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN OCCURS AND PUTS A HARD
COATING ON TOP OF THE SNOW.
THE 02.12Z MODEL DATA ALSO CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE OVERNIGHT WITH THE TAIL END OF THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS LATE TONIGHT. THIS FORCING LOOKS
TO BE ENOUGH AS ICE ALOFT COMES BACK INTO THE AREA TO PRODUCE A
SMALLER AREA OF ENHANCED SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOOKING TO GET
ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS SECONDARY PUSH.
BASED ON ALL THIS...THE ONLY PLANNED CHANGE TO THE CURRENT
HEADLINES TO TAKE THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE AREA AND DOWNGRADE
THE WARNING TO AN ADVISORY.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND
STILL LOOKING AT ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO COME DOWN OUT
OF CANADA AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE MOISTURE WILL NOT
HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE TO RECOVER AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SO ONLY
EXPECTING A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A BIT MORE LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND ALSO BRINGING IT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DROP ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE LOOKS TO BE A
LITTLE BIT STRONGER THAN THE THURSDAY WAVE...BUT AGAIN THERE WILL
BE VERY LIMITED TIME FOR ANY MOISTURE RETURN TO OCCUR. AS A
RESULT...NOT EXPECTING THIS WAVE TO BE ABLE TO PRODUCE MUCH SNOW
EITHER AND WILL HAVE SOME 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. THE PARADE OF NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEMS WILL THEN CONTINUE WITH
YET ANOTHER ONE COMING IN FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS
POINT...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGEST OF THESE NORTHWEST FLOW
SYSTEMS AND WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CARRY SOME 20 TO 40 PERCENT SNOW CHANCES
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES CENTERED ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED AWAY FROM TAF AIRFIELDS...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL ONE MORE ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS IA
THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. LATEST FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MUCH OF THIS SNOW SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF I-90.
WILL ADD TEMPO GROUPS FOR BRIEF WORSENING CONDITIONS...BUT
OTHERWISE EXPECT IMPROVED VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED LOW
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. LAST OF THE SNOW SHOULD FINALLY MOVE EAST OF
TAF AIRFIELDS BY 03.12Z...ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. EXPECT GUSTS FROM 24 TO 30
KTS AT BOTH AIRFIELDS WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY
IN BLSN AT KRST WITH THESE WINDS. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT AFTER
03.18Z WITH AN EXPECTANT SCATTERING OUT OF THE CLOUD DECK LATE IN
THE PERIOD.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ054-055-
061.
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
IA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ008>010-018-
019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ011-029-
030.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1034 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016
...SOME LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT...
MAIN WX FOCUS FOR THE NEXT 24 H WILL BE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH CO TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SRN UT AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME LIGHT
SN SHOWERS IN ERN UT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. SNOW AMTS OUT
WEST HAVE BEEN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS IN
LIQUID...BUT WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED A BIT AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND SOME LEE SIDE COLUMN STRETCHING OCCURS. PV
ANALYSIS AND MODEL FORECASTS SHOW BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP
OCCURRING IN THE 03Z TO 09Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
ERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. FARTHER EAST...SN PROBABILITIES LOOK
CONSIDERABLY LESS. THE LATEST HRRR IS CATCHING ON TO THIS POTENTIAL
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND IS SHOWING A PRETTY GOOD BAND OF
PRECIP DEVELOPING OVER WRN PUEBLO COUNTY AROUND 09Z. HAVE ALREADY
INCREASED POPS OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR FOR THIS EVE...BUT IF TRENDS
CONTINUE MAY HAVE TO INCREASE POPS SOME MORE FOR THIS AREA. SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE REGARDLESS...STILL LOOKING AT
AROUND 1-3 INCHES FOR THE ERN MTS AND GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH FOR
THE PLAINS. THE LATEST HRRR INDICATING MORE LIKE 2-3 INCHES...BUT
FOR NOW WILL STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL
KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT... SO DESPITE CONTINUED COLD
AIR ALOFT...SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES HIGHER
THAN THEY WERE FOR LAST NIGHT.
TOMORROW...WILL SEE CLEARING FROM NW TO SE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
ONWARD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY MID DAY. CONTINUED COLD AIR ALOFT
AND NRLY FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL HOLD DAYTIME HIGHS ON THE COLD
SIDE OF AVERAGE. WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW BELOW GUIDANCE AS MOS
VALUES LOOK A BIT TOO WARM FOR KPUB AND ESPECIALLY KCOS...WHERE
RESIDUAL SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD DOWN THE HIGHS. SHOULD SEE
MAINLY 30S TOMORROW ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS...AND 20S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE
WEST...AND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS IT
SHOULD BE A PLEASANT END TO THE WEEK DESPITE THE COOLER THAN
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016
FRI NIGHT...GENERALLY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WL BE OVR THE
FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY STILL BE BELOW
AVERAGE. ON SATURDAY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE STATE BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEATHER WL STILL
BE DRY. TEMPS ALOFT WL WARM ON SAT AND MOST LOCATIONS WL SEE WARMER
HIGH TEMPS. MUCH OF THE SERN PLAINS SHOULD SEE HIGHS THAT ARE NEAR
OR A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE...ALTHOUGH AREAS WITH LINGER SNOW COVER
MAY BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE. THE HIGH VALLEYS WL ALSO LIKELY BE A
LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE.
SAT NIGHT AN UPR TROF WL BE MOVING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN
PLAINS STATES...SENDING A FRONT INTO SERN CO. AT THIS TIME...THE
FORECAST MODELS KEEP THE WEATHER DRY ACRS THE FORECAST AREA SAT
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OVR THE CENTRAL
MTNS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...TEMPS OVR THE SERN PLAINS ON SUN
SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER.
AS THE UPR TROF OVR THE PLAINS STATES MOVES EASTWARD...AN UPR RIDGE
WL BE BUILDING OVR THE GREAT BASIN AND MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES BY
MONDAY...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THAT AREA THRU THE
COMING WEEK. THIS WL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER ACRS THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG WITH WARMER...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016
RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND RADAR INDICATE
THAT SNOW...SOME ACCUMULATING...IS ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF EL
PASO COUNTY...WITH LOCALIZED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO THREE INCHES
POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. SNOW WILL TEND TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...ALLOWING MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES...PRIMARILY AT KCOS AND KPUB TONIGHT...WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM LATER FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM SOUTHERN COLORADO.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
352 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW PRESSURE
TO TRAVEL ALONG AFTER SUNRISE. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL DELIVER A
MIX OF RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM
SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
400 AM UPDATE...
*** WESTWARD TREND IN THE SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED FOR WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES TO BE EXPANDED ***
BUSY NIGHT AS WE CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE LATEST DATA AND TRENDS FOR
THIS UPCOMING WINTER SYSTEM. PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENS. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
POOL INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO BE CLOSE TO AN INCH.
BIGGEST TREND BETWEEN THE 12Z AND 00Z RUNS IS THAT THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD TREND.
HEAVY PRECIP SWATH OVER NJ AND EASTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND IMPACT WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. BECAUSE OF THIS
UPSTREAM TREND...HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE ALL OF THE PIONEER VALLEY. ANY PRECIP THAT IS OR WILL FALL
WILL BE SNOW ACROSS THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERKS AS MESONET SITES ARE
ALREADY REPORTING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
GUIDANCE.
ASIDE FROM THE EXPANSION...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF EITHER SNOW...OR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS CENTRAL MASS AND INTO CT. THIS IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST DUAL-POL DATA. HIGHER REFLECTIVITY ECHOES ARE STARTING TO
MOVE INTO WINDHAM COUNTY...WHICH WILL BE EITHER A MIX OR JUST SNOW
AS 925 MB TEMPS ARE ALREADY BELOW 32F PER SPC MESO DATA. ANTICIPATE
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO BE FAIRLY BUSY WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND SURFACE LOW NEARS.
P-TYPE AND CHANGE OVER TIMING...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS COASTAL
LOW MOVES ALONG STALLED COLD FRONT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE PRECIP
SHIED HAS EXPANDED FARTHER WESTWARD THEN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...WHICH
IS THE LATEST TREND IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 06Z NAM.
CHANGE OVER HAS ALREADY STARTED TO OCCUR ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STILL
CONCERNED ABOUT THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE FALLING. ANTICIPATE THE CHANGE
OVER TO MAKE IT TO SOUTHEASTERN MASS INCLUDING BOS AND PVD CLOSER TO
THE 6-8 AM HOUR. THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER AS CAA
WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO REACH THEM. FEEL IT WILL BE CLOSER TO
10AM-NOON. ALTHOUGH SLEET MAY MIX IN DURING THE TRANSITION...BELIEVE
MANY LOCATIONS WILL SWITCH FROM RAIN TO STRAIGHT SNOW.
QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...
HAVE ADJUSTED THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
GENERALLY BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING WILL GET AT
LEAST A SLOPPY 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HILLS WITHIN
TOLLAND...WINDHAM...WORCESTER AND PROVIDENCE COUNTIES. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR QPF. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES. BELIEVE WE HAVE A GOOD TREND GOING
AT THIS TIME. SOME AREAS IN QUESTION WHICH COULD BE UPGRADED WITHIN
THE WARNING IS SOUTHERN BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES. HOWEVER THESE
LOCATIONS MAY BE STUCK IN THE MIX LONGER KEEPING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
LOW. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERK TO AN
ADV AS SNOW IS ALREADY STARTING TO FALL PER WEBCAMS. THE PIONEER AND
CONNECTICUT VALLEY MAY SEE LOWER AMOUNTS AS WELL THANKS TO
SHADOWING. SO EVEN THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS ARE OUT...THERE STILL COULD
BE SOME CHANGES THANKS TO SOME MESOSCALE ISSUES.
IMPACTS...
DUE TO THE FACT THAT SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOW WITH THIS STORM...AND
BANDING WITH 1+ INCH/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. THIS WILL BE EXACERBATED BY A LLJ AROUND
40 KT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME OF IT/S MOMENTUM.
THEREFORE...THE COMBINATION OF WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND HEAVY WET
SNOW MAY INCREASE THE RISK.
THE OTHER PRIMARY IMPACT IS THAT THE CHANGE-OVER AND HEAVIEST
PRECIP/SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF THE AM
COMMUTE...WITH LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /2 PM THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
THE MORE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IN RELATION TO PREVIOUS
PROGS SUGGEST A SLOWER END. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE
DRYING THE LOW LEVELS...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW
LEFTOVER MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MA BEFORE THINGS END BY
EARLY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY DROP OFF DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY CAUSE ANY UNTREATED ROADS TO BE SLIPPERY
FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
LONGWAVE SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW BUIDLING RIDGE IN THE WEST AND
DIGGING TROUGH IN THE EAST...POINTING TO WARM TREND WEST AND COOLING
EAST. SMALLER SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW A THREE-RING CIRCUS OF
SHORTWAVES EITHER AFFECTING OR WITH POTENTIAL TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH TWO
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
WHERE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES COULD OCCUR.
MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS ALSO AGREE
ON TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS...ONE WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY AND A SECOND CLOSE
TO SHORE TUESDAY. BUT ALL SHOW DIFFERING SCENARIOS FOR HOW THESE
SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BEST CONFIDENCE IN
HANDLING THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEMS IS WITH THE GEFS /ENSEMBLES/
THE DAILIES...
TONIGHT-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN USA. EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND OVER FRESH SNOW COVER
MAY LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT THAN INDICATED BY GUIDENCE. WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...WE BUMPED
GUIDENCE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES. ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS ALOFT
SHIFTING SOUTHWEST...THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD REACH AROUND 950 MB.
TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.
SUNDAY...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSS THE NORTHEAST USA. THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO LOSE THE FRONT
IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS SUGGEST JUST
A FEW CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC
INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER
40S. THE COLDER AIR ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING MIN TEMPS
ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...GENERATES A
SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST USA COAST. THIS COASTAL LOW THEN MOVES
NORTHEAST AND PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF OUR AREA. NORMALLY THIS PATH
WOULD KEEP PCPN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WE
COULD DEVELOP SUFFICIENT MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE TO BRING
CLOUDS AND PCPN MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...BUT WITH POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW
MIX NEAR THE COAST.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ASHORE FROM THE PACIFIC TONIGHT AND CROSSES
TO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DIGS AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE MIDWEST AND LEADS TO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW THEN MOVES UP
THE COAST TUESDAY AND PASSES OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. EACH MODEL
HANDLES THIS COASTAL LOW DIFFERENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
SOLUTION IS LOW. CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES FEET-DRY ON THE PACIFIC COAST.
BEST DYNAMICS UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET
MOVES OFF TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...SO BEST CHANCE
OF PCPN SHOULD BE ON TUESDAY THEN DIMINISH TO SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. PTYPE AGAIN FAVORS SNOW INLAND AND SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE COAST.
UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL FROM THE MIDWEST LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST
USA THROUGH THURSDAY MAINTAINING SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THROUGH 18Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THE RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO
EXPAND NORTHWEST...COVERING MOST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND BY ABOUT
10-12Z. THIS WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW
CIGS/VSBYS. THEN...AFTER 09Z ESPECIALLY THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO
SNOW FROM NW- SE UNTIL IT/S ALL SNOW AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS BY
ABOUT 16Z. SOME ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY
SFCS. HOWEVER RUNWAYS MAY RECEIVE A PLOWABLE AMOUNT OF SNOW. THIS
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS.
AFTER 18Z TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SNOWS/RAIN COME TO AN END AND VERY QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF PRECIP AND CHANGE TO SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
PRECIP TIMING.
OUTLOOK /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY... NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND 35-45
KT ON THE EASTERN WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. SEAS BECOME HIGH...MAINLY 8-10 FT ON THE SE OCEAN
WATERS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN/FOG ACROSS THE WATERS
WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO SNOW NEAR THE EASTERN SHORELINES.
OUTLOOK /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
TONIGHT...DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS EARLY AND
POPPING UNDER 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS AS HIGH AS 14 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT TO 5-7 FEET BY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST WATERS DURING THE
NIGHT.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY BELOW 25 KNOTS BUT
GUSTING NEAR 25 KNOTS EAST OF CAPE ANN SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS
DIMINISH SATURDAY BUT THEN RETURN TO NEAR 5 FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN
SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...NORTH WINDS TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST
NEAR 30 KNOTS EACH DAY. DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL BEHAVIOR OF THE
TWO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS PASSING BY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WINDS TO REACH 35-40 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR GALES AT
THIS TIME...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. WINDS TURN BACK TO NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ003-
004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CTZ002.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ019>022.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ004>007-012>018-026.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ002-003-008>011.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ007.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
RIZ001>006.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ230-236-251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1136 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG AN OFFSHORE FRONT TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A STRONG OCEAN
STORM SHOULD TRACK WELL OFFSHORE LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THEN
ANOTHER STORM LOOKS TO REDEVELOP OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER
MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1115 PM UPDATE...MADE SOME EDITS TO THE HOURLY POP AND WX GRIDS
TO HOPEFULLY BETTER ACCOUNT FOR THE TIMING OF THE CHANGEOVER FROM
RAIN TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
MODEL GUIDANCE, THE TREND WAS TO DELAY THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF RAIN-SNOW LINE BY 1-3 HOURS DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION AS THERE
IS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
OVERCOME INITIALLY.
DESPITE THIS DELAY IN THE CHANGEOVER, SNOW AMOUNTS WERE NOT
LOWERED AS STRONG DYNAMICAL COOLING AND HEAVIER PRECIP RATES
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO YIELD SNOWFALL RATES OF AROUND AN INCH AN
HOUR DURING RUSH HOUR (ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN NJ) UNDER A
MESOSCALE BAND FORMING TO THE NW OF THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW.
THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL BETWEEN 4-9
AM FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND BETWEEN 5 AND 10 AM FARTHER EAST
TOWARD THE NJ AND DE COAST. THIS COINCIDES WITH RUSH HOUR, SO
PLEASE GIVE YOURSELF CONSIDERABLY EXTRA TIME TO GET TO YOUR
DESTINATION IN THE MORNING AND EVEN CONSIDER DELAYING YOUR TRAVEL
(IF POSSIBLE) IF THE ROADS BECOME SNOW COVERED DURING RUSH HOUR.
ARGUABLY THERE IS A SLIGHT BOOST OF CONFIDENCE THAT SNOWFALL
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH THE SIMULATED SNOWFALL FROM THE
LATEST 00Z HRRRX USING A VARIABLE DENSITY JUST ABOUT MATCHES
OURS. THIS FORECAST PARAMETER FROM THE HRRRX PERFORMED EXTREMELY
WELL WITH THE BLIZZARD TWO WEEKS AGO THOUGH THE SETUPS FOR THESE
TWO EVENTS ARE VASTLY DIFFERENT. NOTE THE PARAMETER FROM THE
HRRR/HRRRX OR ANY OTHER MODELS THAT ASSUMES A 10:1 SNOW RATIO FOR
THIS EVENT WILL BE OVERDONE AS IT DOESN`T TAKE INTO ACCOUNT
THERMAL PROFILES THAT ALTER THE MICROPHYSICS, MIXING AND SURFACE
MELTING (WHICH ALL ARE IMPORTANT FACTORS IN THIS EVENT).
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE LOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO INTENSIFY ALONG THE NOW STATIONARY
FRONT AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. FEW CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST WITH THE EVENING UPDATE. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE TRENDED SNOWIER WITH THE LATEST
RUNS. HOWEVER, I HESITATE TO CHANGE THE SNOW AMOUNTS AS MANY
LOCATIONS STILL HAVE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE 32 DEGREES,
MEANING WE`RE STILL SEVERAL HOURS AWAY FROM THE CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW. THUS FOR NOW, WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SNOW AMOUNTS AND WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CONFIGURATION FROM THE 4 PM UPDATE, BUT WILL BE
WATCHING THE TIMING OF THE CHANGE OVER VERY CLOSELY.
TIMING...RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND HAS BEGUN TO
MOVE INTO THE DELAWARE VALLEY. EXPECT THAT IT SHOULD MOVE WEST
THROUGH THE OVER NIGHT HOURS REACHING THE LEHIGH VALLEY DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE TIMING OF THE SNOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
IMPACT PART, IF NOT ALL, OF THE MORNING COMMUTE AND THAT IS WHY WE
HAVE INCLUDED AREAS TO THE WEST OF PHILADELPHIA. IT CERTAINLY
LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A SLOPPY AND SLIPPERY MORNING COMMUTE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
SNOW/RAIN...SNOW SEEMS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH WITH
TEMPERATURES STILL HANGING OUT IN THE 40S LATE THIS EVENING,
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE AS ALL RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT,
AND THEN TRANSITION OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW
DURING THE VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS (AT THIS POINT EXPECT THE
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW TO BE BETWEEN 2 AND 6 AM DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH DEW POINTS FALL). AS THE PRECIPITATION FALLS, IT WILL START
TO COOL THE COLUMN. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE JUST HOW FAST THAT
COLUMN COOLS. PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WILL DEFINITELY PLAY A ROLE
AND AS WE SEE SOME HEAVIER PRECIPITATION FALL, THE COLUMN WILL
COOL FASTER AND WE SHOULD SEE A QUICK CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO
SNOW. THE BEST VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS TO OCCUR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD AND THIS WOULD LEND TO HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF AN ACCUMULATING SNOW. WHILE THE GROUND TEMPS MAY BE
FAIRLY WARM RIGHT NOW, INCREASED PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WILL
ALLOW FOR ALL SURFACES TO ACCUMULATE, EVEN PAVED ROADS.
AMOUNTS WILL VARY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AS YOU MOVE FURTHER INLAND AND
HIGHEST AMOUNTS MORE TOWARDS THE COAST. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
HINTS AT HIGHER TOTALS (THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST) IN EASTERN NEW
JERSEY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE A
WARNING BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS FURTHER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY BE ENDING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE LOW PRESSURE PULLS FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA. MOST
AREAS SHOULD SEE SNOW ENDING BY 10AM WITH SOME OF THE COASTAL
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY SEEING SOME FLAKES THROUGH AROUND NOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND WE
EXPECT THE AREA TO DRY OUT AND REMAIN THAT WAY AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUMMARY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH AN OCEAN STORM LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WHICH SHOULD SLIDE WELL OFFSHORE, THEN QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE TO REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES.
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP INVOLVES A TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THAT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST. A MORE COMPLEX PATTERN THEN EVOLVES
WITH A CLOSED LOW IN CANADA WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY IN THE
SOUTHERN STATES SATURDAY. THE LATTER SHOULD ALLOW A STORM TO DEVELOP
OVER THE WEEKEND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHICH THEN DEEPENS RAPIDLY,
HOWEVER THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE SUCH TO KEEP IT
OFFSHORE AS IT TURNS NORTHEASTWARD. AN IMPRESSIVE TROUGH THEN IN THE
PLAINS MOVES EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
SORT OF REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE ONE TO WATCH GIVEN SUCH
A DEEP INCOMING TROUGH THAT COULD CLOSE OFF INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. HOWEVER, THE INTERACTION WITH THE INITIAL OCEAN STORM COULD
VERY WELL INFLUENCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SECOND STORM. WE USED A
MODEL BLEND WITH CONTINUITY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THEN
BLENDED IN MOSTLY THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS
WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR
NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BACKS MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT BEGINS TO SLIDE NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA, WHICH
WILL RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE SHOULD BE DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING COMBINED WITH LOW DEW POINTS, THEREFORE A COLD NIGHT IS
ANTICIPATED.
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY
SATURDAY BEFORE WEAKENING INTO SUNDAY. OUR REGION LOOKS TO END UP
BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING THE WEEKEND AS A MAIN TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND AND ANOTHER ONE CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THE LATTER SHOULD DRIVE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST DURING SUNDAY WHICH THEN SHOULD GO OUT TO SEA AS IT RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES, ALTHOUGH IT MAY TOSS AT LEAST SOME CLOUDINESS OUR WAY.
THE NORTHERN SYSTEM SHOULD SEND A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA LATER
SUNDAY, HOWEVER THIS FEATURE LOOKS WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED. AS A
RESULT, WE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY ATTM.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO
SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION AS A ROBUST TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND INTO THE EAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN
LOW PRESSURE INTO THE GREAT LAKES, HOWEVER THEN HANDING OFF ENERGY
EASTWARD THAT REDEVELOPS LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE REDEVELOPMENT/TRACK OF THIS STORM MAY
DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE PREVIOUS ONE WHICH
IS MORE OFFSHORE. IN ADDITION, THERE COULD BE A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA TUESDAY WHERE LIFT IS ENHANCED,
HOWEVER THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW
REDEVELOPMENT. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A DECENT COASTAL
STORM WITH COLD AIR COMING INTO PLAY. WHILE THERE IS A SIGNAL IN THE
GUIDANCE REGARDING A STORM, THE TRACK AND INTENSITY IS LESS CERTAIN
AND THAT WILL DETERMINE THE ACTUAL DETAILS /IF ANY/ FOR OUR AREA
WHICH INCLUDES RAIN, SNOW, WIND AND COASTAL IMPACTS. GIVEN THE
VARIABILITY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THIS TIME FRAME.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO BE IN THE EAST, BASICALLY MOVING OVER OUR AREA. THIS WOULD TAKE
ANY COASTAL STORM OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR
GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS. AN ARCTIC FRONT OF SORTS MAY SLIDE
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT
IN SOME CLOUDS AND COLDER AIR WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO ARRIVE DURING THURSDAY FROM THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL CONTINUE AT THE DELAWARE VALLEY SITES (KPHL,
KPNE, KTTN, AND KILG) AND THE COASTAL PLAIN SITES (KMIV AND KACY)
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE INTO
KRDG AND KABE AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIMING OF THE CHANGE OVER TO A RAIN
AND SNOW MIX AND EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW IS UNCERTAIN, BUT AT THIS
POINT, EXPECT TO SEE THE MIX BEGIN BETWEEN 04 AND 06Z, AND THE
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW HAPPEN BETWEEN 06 AND 10Z. GIVEN HOW LATE THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AT KRDG AND KABE, IT MAY BEGIN AND STAY
ALL SNOW. GENERALLY EXPECTING THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
TO BE COINCIDENT WITH THE PERIOD OF ALL SNOW.
FRIDAY...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 15Z ACROSS THE TERMINALS, EXCEPT
FOR KACY AND KMIV WHICH MAY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH 18Z. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD END EARLY WITH SNOW MOVING TO THE EAST THROUGH MID-MORNING.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND 15 TO
20 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS UP NEAR 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS
POSSIBLE, WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATER SUNDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, BECOMING NORTHERLY
SUNDAY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER AS LOW PRESSURE
REDEVELOPS OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS COULD BRING A PERIOD
OF RAIN/SNOW TO THE AREA WHICH WOULD REDUCE THE VISIBILITY. THERE IS
LESS CONFIDENCE THOUGH WITH THIS STORM AS ITS EFFECTS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY THE TRACK AND INTENSITY.
&&
.MARINE...
A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND A SCA HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DELAWARE BAY. GALE GUSTS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
OCEAN WATERS FROM THE PRE DAWN HOURS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTS
ABOVE 25 KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DELAWARE BAY. A FEW GUSTS NEAR
GALE FORCE MAY BE POSSIBLE AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, THOUGH SCA
CONDITIONS ON THE COASTAL WATERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TIME HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO LOWER BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS
IN PLACE. HOWEVER, A POTENTIALLY STRONG OCEAN STORM TO OUR SOUTHEAST
LATER SUNDAY COULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD AND WINDS
TO INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN OFFSHORE STORM TRACKS WELL EAST OF OUR
WATERS INTO MONDAY, WHICH COULD ENHANCE SEAS AND WIND GUSTS. ANOTHER
COASTAL STORM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY COULD RESULT IN GALE
FORCE WINDS GUSTS, HOWEVER THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE STORM WHICH CURRENTLY HAS LOWER CONFIDENCE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
101>106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NJZ008>010-
012-015>019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NJZ013-014-
020>027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR DEZ001.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ008-012.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ015-019-
020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/MEOLA/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
347 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
HIGH IS CLEARING THE SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...
ALSO BRINGING AN END TO SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST.
CLEAR SKIES SPREADING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...WILL SUPPORT AN EXTRA DROP OFF IN TEMPS FOR THE VALLEYS
TOWARD DAWN. AS IT STANDS NOW...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION TO THE UPPER
20S ON THE RIDGES AND LOCATIONS STILL UNDER THE CLOUDS ALONG AND
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND
20 DEGREES ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...CURRENTLY.
THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL TAKE ANOTHER BOTTOMING OUT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TODAY. THIS LEAVES EAST KENTUCKY IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING
TODAY AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT...
MAINLY SOUTHERN STREAM...TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WAVE BECOMES MORE ISOLATED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS IT DIVES TO THE GULF COAST AND STARTS TO
PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS SHOW LIMITED
SEPARATION FROM EACH OTHER AT THIS TIME STEP WITH THE GFS THE
WEAKEST AND CANADIAN A CLOSE MATCH TO THE ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE
NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH ONLY A WEAK STREAM OF ENERGY SET TO DRIFT OVER THE
STATE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND WAS USED FOR THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST...
WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR NEAR TERM DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY UNDER THE CONTROL...A TERM USED LOOSELY...OF WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE. IN FACT...GIVEN SOME LIMITED ENERGY ALOFT AND THE WAVE
PASSING TO THE SOUTH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FOR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THOUGH HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST
GRIDS FOR NOW. WHAT WE WILL HAVE IS MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH READINGS REACHING THE UPPER 40S AND
LOW 50S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR
TODAY...GOOD SUNSHINE...AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...WILL ERASE A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S MOST PLACES
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND FOR T/TD/WIND GRIDS TODAY BEFORE
FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH SATURDAY. DID ADJUST THE MIN TEMPS
A TAD THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT FOR MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW...SINGLE DIGITS...IN LINE
WITH MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH THEY MAY BE A
HAIR TOO LOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD START OFF QUIETLY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO END THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY TOPPING AROUND 50 ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE STEADILY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY EVENING...AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BARRELS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT
THE FIRST PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY MIX WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S. THE PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW COLD AIR TO SPILL QUICKLY
INTO THE REGION. THIS CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES CAUSE THE RAIN TO
TRANSITION QUICKLY TO A RAIN SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW BY LATE
MONDAY EVENING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION AND TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND FREEZING. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PERIODS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN RAIN MAY MIX
WITH THE SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THE LAST BIT OF SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKYEARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO DRY AND COLD.
THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGHS ON
THAT DAY ARE ONLY FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS ON THAT DAY FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE
COLDEST NIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE MERCURY WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER TEENS BOTH NIGHTS. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE LOWS IN
THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
A DECK OF 4-5KFT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HOLD ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE FROM
THESE NEAR THE VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS. THIS ALL
CLEARS OFF BY DAWN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVALENT THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BY DAWN...CONTINUING THAT WAY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY UNDER WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...KAS/GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
300 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
HIGH IS CLEARING THE SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...
ALSO BRINGING AN END TO SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST.
CLEAR SKIES SPREADING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...WILL SUPPORT AN EXTRA DROP OFF IN TEMPS FOR THE VALLEYS
TOWARD DAWN. AS IT STANDS NOW...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION TO THE UPPER
20S ON THE RIDGES AND LOCATIONS STILL UNDER THE CLOUDS ALONG AND
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND
20 DEGREES ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...CURRENTLY.
THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL TAKE ANOTHER BOTTOMING OUT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TODAY. THIS LEAVES EAST KENTUCKY IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING
TODAY AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT...
MAINLY SOUTHERN STREAM...TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WAVE BECOMES MORE ISOLATED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS IT DIVES TO THE GULF COAST AND STARTS TO
PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS SHOW LIMITED
SEPARATION FROM EACH OTHER AT THIS TIME STEP WITH THE GFS THE
WEAKEST AND CANADIAN A CLOSE MATCH TO THE ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE
NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH ONLY A WEAK STREAM OF ENERGY SET TO DRIFT OVER THE
STATE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND WAS USED FOR THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST...
WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR NEAR TERM DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY UNDER THE CONTROL...A TERM USED LOOSELY...OF WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE. IN FACT...GIVEN SOME LIMITED ENERGY ALOFT AND THE WAVE
PASSING TO THE SOUTH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FOR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THOUGH HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST
GRIDS FOR NOW. WHAT WE WILL HAVE IS MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH READINGS REACHING THE UPPER 40S AND
LOW 50S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR
TODAY...GOOD SUNSHINE...AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...WILL ERASE A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S MOST PLACES
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND FOR T/TD/WIND GRIDS TODAY BEFORE
FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH SATURDAY. DID ADJUST THE MIN TEMPS
A TAD THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT FOR MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW...SINGLE DIGITS...IN LINE
WITH MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH THEY MAY BE A
HAIR TOO LOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF TRANSITION...WITH SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES GIVING WAY TO READINGS MUCH BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS BY WHILE CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH
DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...BUT
TRIGGERING STRONG SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE. OUR IMPACT
WILL COME FROM A TROUGH DESCENDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND
BECOMING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK. ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR LOCAL
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A DEEP MOIST LAYER UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF LIGHT PRECIP AT TIMES. THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN EARLY ON AS THE
AIR MASS TRANSITIONS...BUT FROM LATE MONDAY ON...IT SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. MOST AREAS WILL PROBABLY SEE
ACCUMULATION AT SOME POINT...BUT IT IS LIKELY TO BE OF THE
NUISANCE VARIETY. THE BEST CHANCE AT MORE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE STATE.
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS START TO SHOW UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE UPPER TROUGH MORE
STRONGLY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS...GFS
ENSEMBLE...AND THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF. NOT LEANING TO THE
COLDER NEW ECMWF SCENARIO AT THIS POINT...BEING THAT IT DOES NOT
HAVE MUCH OTHER SUPPORT. HAVE ONLY GIVEN IT LIGHT WEIGHTING IN THE
NEW FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
A DECK OF 4-5KFT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HOLD ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE FROM
THESE NEAR THE VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS. THIS ALL
CLEARS OFF BY DAWN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVALENT THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BY DAWN...CONTINUING THAT WAY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY UNDER WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS/GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1111 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016
OVERVIEW...THERE ARE A FEW FORECAST CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. FOG IS NOT LIKELY...BUT CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT
ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...A VERY LIGHT SNOW EVENT IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING
PRIMARILY BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON AND FOCUSED ON NEBRASKA ZONES.
HOWEVER...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LOW IF WE EVEN GET
ANYTHING...GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH IN MOST PLACES.
FOG POTENTIAL...THERE HAS BEEN A LOW STRATUS DECK THIS AFTERNOON
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN IOWA. THE HRRR HAS BEEN FORECASTING
FOG FORMATION THIS EVENING OVER THE THICK SNOW COVER AND NEAR THE
EDGE OF THIS STRATUS DECK ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. THE SREF
FOG POTENTIAL IS ALSO OVER 50 PERCENT IN SOME OF THIS AREA. IN
ADDITION...THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUPPORTING FOG.
HOWEVER...THE HRRR HAS BEEN BACKING OFF OF THE FOG ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST AND HAS BEEN PULLING THE FOG FURTHER BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA AND CLOSER TO THE STRATUS
DECK...WHICH MAKES SENSE. THE SREF MAY BE OVERDOING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GIVEN HOW SNOW COVER IS HANDLED IN THE MODELS. IN
ADDITION...MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT LIMITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ALSO LIMITING FOG POTENTIAL.
THEREFORE...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE FOG IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS POINT IN TIME. IF WE DO SEE FOG...IT WILL LIKELY
BE NORTHEAST OF THE TRI-CITIES.
SNOW POTENTIAL...A WEAK FAST MOVING OPEN SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
MOST FORECAST MODELS GENERATE A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF MOISTURE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE THAT WOULD AMOUNT TO TRACE
AMOUNTS OF SNOW OR LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
PRETTY CLEARLY SHOW THAT THE TEMPERATURE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
ACROSS OUR CWA THAT THE ONLY PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW.
HOWEVER...OVERALL LIFT IS WEAK AS NOTED BY FRONTOGENESIS AND
ISENTROPIC SURFACES. THE ONLY THING REALLY GOING FOR THIS WEAK
LITTLE SYSTEM IS A FAIRLY DEEP SATURATED ZONE WITHIN THE DENDRITIC
LAYER THAT COULD LEAD TO A LITTLE LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW. GIVEN THE
LACK OF LIFT WILL JUST CALL FOR LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW
AND MOST AREAS MAY SEE A TRACE OR LESS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
WEAK AND THUS NOT MUCH WIND IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016
ALOFT: NW FLOW WAS DEVELOPING AND WILL DOMINATE THESE PERIODS.
EXCITATION OF THE LONGWAVES UPSTREAM WILL RESULT IN TEMPORARY
AMPLIFICATION OVER N AMERICA...WITH A +2.5 STANDARD DEVIATION RIDGE
OVER THE W AND A -2.5 SD TROF OVER THE ERN USA. THE WAVELENGTH WILL
BROADEN AND THE MAGNITUDE WILL DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT MID-NEXT WEEK...
WITH SIGNIFICANT DEAMPLIFICATION PROBABLE LATE NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE: A POTENT CLIPPER WILL BE RACING SE ACROSS THE CAN PRAIRIES
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED POLAR COLD FRONT WILL SURGE S AND
CROSS THE FCST AREA SAT NIGHT. IT THEN LOOKS LIKE THE ARCTIC FRONT
SLIDES THRU MON. HIGH PRES ARRIVES TUE AND THEN IT WRN EDGE OF THE
COLDER AIR BEGINS TO EDGE E INTO WED...WITH A WARM FRONT SHARPENING
AND APPROACHING.
NW FLOW IS A DRY PATTERN. SO ANY PRECIP THREATS WILL BE
LIGHT/MINOR.THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC COLD WILL SURGE INTO THE ERN
USA...MISSING US JUST TO THE E. BUT THE WRN FRINGE OF THESE AIR
MASSES WILL KEEP TEMPS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW NORMAL. THE FCST
AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A CLIPPER SAT. THAT COULD BE A
DAY OF TEMPORARY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
A FEW DAILY DETAILS...
FRI NIGHT: DECREASING CLOUDS.
SAT: TEMPS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE COMPLICATION OF SNOW
COVER. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S...EVEN
WITH THE SNOW COVER. IT`S LOOKING VERY WARM IN THE LOW-LVLS...BUT
NOT SURE HOW DEEPLY THE BL MIXES INTO THIS TO BRING IT DOWN.
SUN: COLD SECTOR. WINDY IN CAA...BUT ACTUAL AIR TEMPS NOT THAT
COLD.
COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES N OF I-80 SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. JET
FORCING IS STRONG ALOFT...BUT MOISTURE IS LACKING.
MON: TEMPS DROP BACK TO NORMAL...POSSIBLY BELOW. WE MAY NOT BE HIGH
ENOUGH WITH THE WARP-AROUND CLOUD COVER ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE
THERMAL TROF. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND
E...BUT IT`S NOT IN THE FCST YET.
TUE-WED: QUIET AND DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016
CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN KANSAS. EXPECT THE LIGHT SNOW AND LOWER CEILINGS TO MOVE
INTO KGRI AND KEAR ESPECIALLY TOWARDS MORNING. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY COULD DROP INTO MVFR...BUT DO NOT EXPECT IFR OR LOWER
CRITERIA DURING THE SNOW. HAVE KEPT THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW UNTIL BETTER DETAILS ARE KNOWN. CEILINGS WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
DAY AND SKIES WILL CLEAR TOWARDS THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...BILLINGS WRIGHT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
433 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP AND JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST TODAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ITS WAKE AND BRINGS
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
START THE NEW WORKWEEK AS A COMPLEX AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF SNOW HAS BROKEN OUT AT
COATSVILLE...JUST EAST OF THE LANCASTER BORDER. HRRR AND RAP BOTH
AGREE IN BRINGING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A
BIT OF SLEET OR RAIN...OVER THE FAR SERN PORTION OF THE CWA
THROUGH SUNRISE...BASICALLY BEING OVER BY MID MORNING. QPF ON THE
ORDER OF A TRACE TO UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH REMAINS THE CONSENSUS
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO
ACCUMULATIONS IF THERE ARE ANY WILL PROBABLY BE CONFINED TO GRASSY
SURFACES.
FURTHER WEST A SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS HELPING TRIGGER SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THAT ARE GAINING A LITTLE PUSH FROM SOME
OROGRAPHIC FORCING. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THESE
AREAS.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME
LINGERING FLURRIES OVER THE USUAL HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NW...AS
THE UPPER HEIGHTS REBOUND RAPIDLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY.
CLOUDS WILL BREAK OVER OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
TEMPS WILL DROP OFF INTO THE 20S REGION-WIDE TONIGHT...WHICH FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH THE MOST CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN
AREAS...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES. HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THE
TIME OF YEAR...RISING INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN IS MADE TO EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN US
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW FORECAST TO DROP
STEEPLY SE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO OHIO VALLEY. AT
THIS TIME THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF DO NOT GENERATE ANY KIND OF
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW/HEAVY PRECIP THREAT...BUT THE ENSEMBLE
PLUMES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH ANYWHERE
FROM AN INCH OR TWO TO A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW. ECENS SHOWS A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...FAVORING THE HIGHER WESTERN AND NORTHERN
AREAS. THE MAIN THING IS THERE IS NO INDICATION OF A SINGLE ROBUST
SURFACE LOW THAT WOULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
STORMINESS...YET.
THE SEEMINGLY MOST CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT THE UPPER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING OVER THE EASTERN US...DRIVING
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION...AND A CHUNK OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
DOWN INTO THE GULF STATES. THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE NORMAL LAKE
EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO LATE WEEK AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT KEEP US ON THE
CHILLY AND UNSETTLED SIDE.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
09Z TAFS SENT.
NOT MANY CHANGES.
SOME SNOW TO THE SE.
WILL BE WATCHING THE RADAR CLOSELY...CONCERN TO HOW FAR WEST
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD MOVE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ON THE COLD FRONT AND TRACKS NE.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN ACROSS CENTRAL PA THRU 06Z WILL BE MVFR
STRATOCU DECK/SCT FLURRIES AT KBFD/KJST ASSOC WITH WEAK OROGRAPHIC
LIFT OVR THE MTNS.
FOCUS LATE TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TOWARD SE PA...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRES
LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST. ALL THE LATEST MDL DATA SUGGESTS KLNS
WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD
TO A PERIOD OF LOW /IFR/ VSBYS AT KLNS BTWN 08Z-12Z FRIDAY. LATEST
HRRR OUTPUT AS OF 03Z SUGGESTS THE SIG VIS REDUCTIONS MAY REMAIN
JUST EAST OF KLNS...BUT TOO CLOSE TO CALL ATTM. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN AT LEAST MVFR CONDS AT KBFD AND KJST FRIDAY MORNING WITH OCNL
-SHSN. LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR PRODUCTS SUGGEST
OCNL IFR CONDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT KBFD/KJST EARLY FRIDAY AM...AS
BLYR MOISTURE/-SHSN INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
MOVING IN FROM THE W.
ANY SNOW AT KLNS SHOULD END BY ARND 11Z. FOCUS WILL THEN BE ON
LINGERING STRATOCU ACROSS THE W MTNS. MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EVEN
KBFD/KJST WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDS BY AFTN...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
MON-TUE...SNOW/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY W MTNS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ICE EFFECTS AT MARIETTA WILL CONTINUE FOR QUITE A WHILE. BUT
FLOWS ARE NOT VERY HIGH. THE LOCAL STREAMS WILL START TO COME DOWN
SOME...BUT SHOW DAILY AFTN BUMPS UP AS RESIDUAL SNOW MELTS WITH
AFTN TEMPS IN THE 40S EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHERE PATCHY SNOW
LINGERS IN THE SE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION...AS MORE RAIN AND SNOW
NOT THAT FAR AWAY.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
HYDROLOGY...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
312 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP AND JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST TODAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ITS WAKE AND BRINGS
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
START THE NEW WORKWEEK AS A COMPLEX AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF SNOW HAS BROKEN OUT AT
COATSVILLE...JUST EAST OF THE LANCASTER BORDER. HRRR AND RAP BOTH
AGREE IN BRINGING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A
BIT OF SLEET OR RAIN...OVER THE FAR SERN PORTION OF THE CWA
THROUGH SUNRISE...BASICALLY BEING OVER BY MID MORNING. QPF ON THE
ORDER OF A TRACE TO UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH REMAINS THE CONSENSUS
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO
ACCUMULATIONS IF THERE ARE ANY WILL PROBABLY BE CONFINED TO GRASSY
SURFACES.
FURTHER WEST A SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS HELPING TRIGGER SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THAT ARE GAINING A LITTLE PUSH FROM SOME
OROGRAPHIC FORCING. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THESE
AREAS.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME
LINGERING FLURRIES OVER THE USUAL HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NW...AS
THE UPPER HEIGHTS REBOUND RAPIDLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY.
CLOUDS WILL BREAK OVER OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
TEMPS WILL DROP OFF INTO THE 20S REGION-WIDE TONIGHT...WHICH FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH THE MOST CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN
AREAS...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES. HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THE
TIME OF YEAR...RISING INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN IS MADE TO EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN US
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW FORECAST TO DROP
STEEPLY SE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO OHIO VALLEY. AT
THIS TIME THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF DO NOT GENERATE ANY KIND OF
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW/HEAVY PRECIP THREAT...BUT THE ENSEMBLE
PLUMES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH ANYWHERE
FROM AN INCH OR TWO TO A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW. ECENS SHOWS A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...FAVORING THE HIGHER WESTERN AND NORTHERN
AREAS. THE MAIN THING IS THERE IS NO INDICATION OF A SINGLE ROBUST
SURFACE LOW THAT WOULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
STORMINESS...YET.
THE SEEMINGLY MOST CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT THE UPPER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING OVER THE EASTERN US...DRIVING
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION...AND A CHUNK OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
DOWN INTO THE GULF STATES. THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE NORMAL LAKE
EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO LATE WEEK AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT KEEP US ON THE
CHILLY AND UNSETTLED SIDE.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADD A LINE AFTER SUNSET...AS WINDS DIE DOWN.
WILL BE WATCHING THE RADAR CLOSELY...CONCERN TO HOW FAR WEST
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD MOVE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ON THE COLD FRONT AND TRACKS NE.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN ACROSS CENTRAL PA THRU 06Z WILL BE MVFR
STRATOCU DECK/SCT FLURRIES AT KBFD/KJST ASSOC WITH WEAK OROGRAPHIC
LIFT OVR THE MTNS.
FOCUS LATE TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TOWARD SE PA...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRES
LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST. ALL THE LATEST MDL DATA SUGGESTS KLNS
WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD
TO A PERIOD OF LOW /IFR/ VSBYS AT KLNS BTWN 08Z-12Z FRIDAY. LATEST
HRRR OUTPUT AS OF 03Z SUGGESTS THE SIG VIS REDUCTIONS MAY REMAIN
JUST EAST OF KLNS...BUT TOO CLOSE TO CALL ATTM. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN AT LEAST MVFR CONDS AT KBFD AND KJST FRIDAY MORNING WITH OCNL
-SHSN. LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR PRODUCTS SUGGEST
OCNL IFR CONDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT KBFD/KJST EARLY FRIDAY AM...AS
BLYR MOISTURE/-SHSN INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
MOVING IN FROM THE W.
ANY SNOW AT KLNS SHOULD END BY ARND 11Z. FOCUS WILL THEN BE ON
LINGERING STRATOCU ACROSS THE W MTNS. MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EVEN
KBFD/KJST WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDS BY AFTN...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
MON-TUE...SNOW/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY W MTNS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ICE EFFECTS AT MARIETTA WILL CONTINUE FOR QUITE A WHILE. BUT
FLOWS ARE NOT VERY HIGH. THE LOCAL STREAMS WILL START TO COME DOWN
SOME...BUT SHOW DAILY AFTN BUMPS UP AS RESIDUAL SNOW MELTS WITH
AFTN TEMPS IN THE 40S EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHERE PATCHY SNOW
LINGERS IN THE SE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION...AS MORE RAIN AND SNOW
NOT THAT FAR AWAY.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1248 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP THE EAST COAST MAY SPREAD A VERY
LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW INTO SOUTHEASTERN PA TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SNOWBELT WITH
DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING BY 06Z
OVER SOUTHERN YORK AND LANCASTER...THEN MIXED RAIN AND SNOW
CHANGING TO SNOW SNOW SHORTLY AFTERWARDS AND LASTING THROUGH 13Z.
STILL EXPECTING A COASTING TO AS MUCH AS 1-2 INCHES OVER EXTREME
EASTERN PORTIONS OF LANCASTER COUNTY.
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON SCHEDULE JUST SOUTH OF
WILMINGTON NC LATE THIS EVENING WILL TRACK ALONG THE OUTER NC
BANKS OVERNIGHT AND OFFSHORE BEFORE HEADING NORTHEAST AND WELL
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY.
CLOUDS WILL TAKE A BREAK IN THE CENTRAL COS TONIGHT AS THE LLVL
FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE LESS CYCLONIC. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
SCT/ISOLD SHSN IN THE NW THO AS THE STRONG VORT MAX NEAR PA FROM
THE W. THE FLOW IS STILL OFF THE LAKE AND UPSLOPE INTO THE HIGHER
ELEVS OF PA. JUST A DUSTING THERE AS WELL. MINS WILL BE LOWEST IN
THE NW WHERE CAA BRINGS 8H TEMPS DOWN TO DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW 0C.
THE OFFSHORE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NW AND THE AXIS OF THE JET
STREAM PASSES OUR LONGITUDE EVEN BEFORE SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOULD SCOOT EAST OF LANCASTER COUNTY BY OR AFTER 700 AM.
IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR ON ALL FRONTS WITH THE LOW WELL OFF TO THE
NE AND VORT MAX/SHORT WAVE OVERHEAD IN THE MORNING. WILL LINGER
MENTION OF --SHSN IN THE ALLEGHENIES FOR THE MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...THE NWRLY WIND WILL PICK BACK UP. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
OUT OVER MOST OF THE CWA. TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY NEAR NORMAL FOR
MAXES WITH NIL ADVECTION AND 8H TEMPS AROUND -10C.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODERATELY AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
THE CONUS AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOW DOWN THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
PATTERN WILL TRANSITIONS TO A WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. WITH A CORRESPONDING DOWNSTREAM UPPER TROF OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
AFTER A QUIET START TO THE PERIOD THIS WEEKEND...THE WEATHER WILL
TREND COLDER AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL SHOTS
OF ARCTIC AIR AND SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION. THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN AT THIS POINT
APPEARS LOW TO MODERATE. MAIN THREAT WILL BE IN THE MONDAY TO
TUESDAY TIME FRAME...WITH POSSIBLE COASTAL DEVELOPMENT STILL
HINTED AT THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. LATEST TRENDS HOWEVER ARE
FOR DEVELOPMENT TO BE FARTHER EAST THAN YESTERDAYS SOLUTIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADD A LINE AFTER SUNSET...AS WINDS DIE DOWN.
WILL BE WATCHING THE RADAR CLOSELY...CONCERN TO HOW FAR WEST
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD MOVE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ON THE COLD FRONT AND TRACKS NE.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN ACROSS CENTRAL PA THRU 06Z WILL BE MVFR
STRATOCU DECK/SCT FLURRIES AT KBFD/KJST ASSOC WITH WEAK OROGRAPHIC
LIFT OVR THE MTNS.
FOCUS LATE TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TOWARD SE PA...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRES
LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST. ALL THE LATEST MDL DATA SUGGESTS KLNS
WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD
TO A PERIOD OF LOW /IFR/ VSBYS AT KLNS BTWN 08Z-12Z FRIDAY. LATEST
HRRR OUTPUT AS OF 03Z SUGGESTS THE SIG VIS REDUCTIONS MAY REMAIN
JUST EAST OF KLNS...BUT TOO CLOSE TO CALL ATTM. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN AT LEAST MVFR CONDS AT KBFD AND KJST FRIDAY MORNING WITH OCNL
-SHSN. LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR PRODUCTS SUGGEST
OCNL IFR CONDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT KBFD/KJST EARLY FRIDAY AM...AS
BLYR MOISTURE/-SHSN INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
MOVING IN FROM THE W.
ANY SNOW AT KLNS SHOULD END BY ARND 11Z. FOCUS WILL THEN BE ON
LINGERING STRATOCU ACROSS THE W MTNS. MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EVEN
KBFD/KJST WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDS BY AFTN...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
MON-TUE...SNOW/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY W MTNS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
OBVIOUS ICE EFFECTS AT MARIETTA WILL CONTINUE FOR QUITE A WHILE.
BUT FLOWS ARE NOT VERY HIGH. THE LOCAL STREAMS WILL START TO COME
DOWN SOME...BUT SHOW DAILY AFTN BUMPS UP AS RESIDUAL SNOW MELTS
WITH AFTN TEMPS IN THE 40S EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHERE PATCHY
SNOW LINGERS IN THE SE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION...AS MORE RAIN AND SNOW
NOT THAT FAR AWAY.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
HYDROLOGY...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EUREKA CA
330 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...DESPITE LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...HIGH CLOUDS
ARE ALREADY STARTING TO APPROACH THE NORTH COAST ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THUS TODAY WILL SEE MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDINESS
IN THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONT REACHES THE COAST. RAINFALL
SHOULD BEGIN FALLING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTH COAST
BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES. (AND EVEN LESS
FARTHER INLAND). SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY HIGH BUT AGAIN...
GIVEN THE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF QPF ONLY AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION
SHOULD BE EXPECTED AND LIKELY WELL ABOVE 5000 FT. ON THE HEELS OF
THE FRONT IS SOME RAPID RIDGING ALOFT THUS LITTLE TO NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BE STRONG AND
MAY LAST THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY AND
RELATIVELY WARM WEATHER. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND WEAKLY
OFFSHORE SO COASTAL WEATHER SHOULD ALSO SEE A FEW DAYS OF SUNSHINE
AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S BY NEXT WEEK. TOWARD THURSDAY...THE
EUROPEAN MODEL IS INDICATING ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTH
COAST...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION RAIN FREE UNTIL FRIDAY.
HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE DURING THIS PERIOD TO
REFLECT THE UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION...LOW CEILINGS HAD IMPACTED AIRFIELDS ACROSS INTERIOR
VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF HAZE ALONG THE COAST. THE
CEILINGS WILL ERODE BY LATER THIS MORNING MAKING FOR MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD BRING LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH
OF CAPE MENDOCINO. EXPECT CEILINGS TO FALL TO MVFR WITH PERIODIC IFR
AT KCEC AND KACV WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE WE CAN EXPECT IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH ANOTHER VFR DAY IN STORE. KML
&&
.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES OVER THE REGION.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD SUFFICE WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT
POSSIBLE MOSTLY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING
GENERALLY MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST HELPING TO KEEP THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXED. THE WESTERLY SWELL WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE SEA STATE SUBSIDING BELOW 10 FT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A NEW SWELL WILL CAUSE THE SEA STATE TO BUILD
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. KML
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
PZZ450-455-470-475.
&&
$$
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
320 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A little light rain across the northwest corner of the state this
evening...otherwise dry and warm conditions expected through at
least the middle of next week. Daytime highs well above normal
early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Clear skies over the CWA this morning with an upper level ridge
axis now over the west coast. Clear skies and relatively light
winds have allowed light fog to form in the valley this morning
mainly in the San Joaquin valley. With lack of significant
rainfall the last few days...widespread dense fog is not likely
today. The tail end of a weak frontal band now approaching the
coast is expected to drag across the north state this evening.
Although cloud cover will increase today in advance of this
system...a warmer airmass will allow for a little warmer
temperatures this afternoon compared to Thursday. The front is
expected to weaken as it moves inland this evening but may hold
together well enough to bring a little light rain across western
Shasta and Tehama counties. Upper ridge rebuilds on Saturday
bringing return to fair skies with daytime temperatures warming to
about 6 to 10 degrees above normal. Even more warming is expected
on Sunday and Monday as the upper ridge amplifies over the west
coast. Both Sunday and Monday will see daytime highs in the upper
60s to lower 70s in the central valley or from 10 to 15 degrees
above normal for early February. At this time...Monday looks to be
the warmest day with daytime highs pushing up close to record
values especially in the northern San Joaquin valley.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)
The axis of the West Coast ridge is forecast to have shifted Ewd and
inland from B.C. into the Great Basin during the EFP. The NAEFS and
GEFS shift the 30+ year return interval in mid-level heights and
primarily in 700-850 mbs temps Ewd and then SEwd away from our CWA
and gradually return the intervals to normal through next week. Thus
a gradual cooling trend is expected through the EFP with Tue being
the warmest day in the EFP period...with some record max temps still
possible at SAC and SCK. Max temp anomalies will drop from 10 to
20 degrees above normal in our CWA on Tue to just a few degrees
above normal by Fri.
N to NEly pressure gradients will gradually relax during the period
and Nly/katabatic winds will transition to Sly...and the potential
for patchy fog in the Srn portion of the CWA will return.
Model differences near the end of the EFP especially late Thu/Fri
lower confidence in timing and any precip chances for our CWA. Have
to believe the strength of the ridge will prevail with an initial
system trying to break it down on Thu. Models may also be trending
Fri`s system farther N with our CWA on the Srn fringe of any precip
chances...which now appear N of I-80. In the least...temperatures
will be trending cooler. JHM
&&
.AVIATION...
Upper ridge axis will be shifting Ewd over Norcal today and tonite.
Clear skies...light winds and high humidity under strong subsidence
create ideal conditions for radiation fog this morning. HRRR forecast
VSBY suggests IFR/LIFR conditions in FG are possible in the Central
Vly from KMOD to as far N as KMYV...KOVE...KCIC. Conditions improving
to VFR after 18z-20z.
Weak wx system encountering ridge axis will spread some light rain
across the Nrn mtns tonite...with patchy FG possible again from
KMYV Swd Sat morning.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1001 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW PRESSURE
TO TRAVEL ALONG AFTER SUNRISE. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL DELIVER A
MIX OF RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM
SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
10 AM UPDATE...
KBOX CC DATA SHOWS A NEARLY STALLING RAIN/SNOW LINE JUST OVER THE
CC CANAL AT THIS TIME. IF ANYTHING IT/S LIKELY TO PIVOT TO A MORE
S-N ORIENTATION. OTHERWISE SNOW FOR MOST EVERYONE AT THIS POINT
EVEN WITH MARGINAL SFC TEMPS NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING.
RATIOS HAVE BEEN LOW SO FAR EVERYWHERE OUTSIDE OF WRN MA/CT WHERE
THE CHANGEOVER OCCURRED EARLIER AND DWPTS CONTINUE TO DROP.
THE KEY NOW IS TO MONITOR STRONG BANDING OCCURRING THROUGH
CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/CT CONNECTED TO A BAND AROUND H6-H5 OR
RIGHT WITHIN THE -12C TO -18C GROWTH REGIME. HENCE WE ARE SEEING
1-2 INCH/HOUR RATES IN AN AREA OF 30DBZ. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE
TO PIVOT SLIGHTLY THEN SLIDE E THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...STILL EXPECT GOOD ACCUMS OVER THE NEXT 3-6
HOURS FOR CENTRAL MA/CT AS WELL AS RI AND ERN MA A BIT LATER. AS
SUCH HAVE UPPED TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION AND NOW FEATURE A BAND OF
8+ INCHES FROM NE CT-NRN RI AND CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN MA. MORE REFINEMENT LIKELY TO COME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
*** WESTWARD TREND IN THE SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED FOR WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES TO BE EXPANDED ***
BUSY NIGHT AS WE CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE LATEST DATA AND TRENDS FOR
THIS UPCOMING WINTER SYSTEM. PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENS. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
POOL INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO BE CLOSE TO AN INCH.
BIGGEST TREND BETWEEN THE 12Z AND 00Z RUNS IS THAT THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD TREND.
HEAVY PRECIP SWATH OVER NJ AND EASTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND IMPACT WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. BECAUSE OF THIS
UPSTREAM TREND...HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE ALL OF THE PIONEER VALLEY. ANY PRECIP THAT IS OR WILL FALL
WILL BE SNOW ACROSS THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERKS AS MESONET SITES ARE
ALREADY REPORTING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
GUIDANCE.
ASIDE FROM THE EXPANSION...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF EITHER SNOW...OR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS CENTRAL MASS AND INTO CT. THIS IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST DUAL-POL DATA. HIGHER REFLECTIVITY ECHOES ARE STARTING TO
MOVE INTO WINDHAM COUNTY...WHICH WILL BE EITHER A MIX OR JUST SNOW
AS 925 MB TEMPS ARE ALREADY BELOW 32F PER SPC MESO DATA. ANTICIPATE
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO BE FAIRLY BUSY WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND SURFACE LOW NEARS.
P-TYPE AND CHANGE OVER TIMING...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS COASTAL
LOW MOVES ALONG STALLED COLD FRONT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE PRECIP
SHIED HAS EXPANDED FARTHER WESTWARD THEN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...WHICH
IS THE LATEST TREND IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 06Z NAM.
CHANGE OVER HAS ALREADY STARTED TO OCCUR ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STILL
CONCERNED ABOUT THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE FALLING. ANTICIPATE THE CHANGE
OVER TO MAKE IT TO SOUTHEASTERN MASS INCLUDING BOS AND PVD CLOSER TO
THE 6-8 AM HOUR. THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER AS CAA
WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO REACH THEM. FEEL IT WILL BE CLOSER TO
10AM-NOON. ALTHOUGH SLEET MAY MIX IN DURING THE TRANSITION...BELIEVE
MANY LOCATIONS WILL SWITCH FROM RAIN TO STRAIGHT SNOW.
QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...
HAVE ADJUSTED THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
GENERALLY BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING WILL GET AT
LEAST A SLOPPY 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HILLS WITHIN
TOLLAND...WINDHAM...WORCESTER AND PROVIDENCE COUNTIES. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR QPF. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES. BELIEVE WE HAVE A GOOD TREND GOING
AT THIS TIME. SOME AREAS IN QUESTION WHICH COULD BE UPGRADED WITHIN
THE WARNING IS SOUTHERN BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES. HOWEVER THESE
LOCATIONS MAY BE STUCK IN THE MIX LONGER KEEPING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
LOW. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERK TO AN
ADV AS SNOW IS ALREADY STARTING TO FALL PER WEBCAMS. THE PIONEER AND
CONNECTICUT VALLEY MAY SEE LOWER AMOUNTS AS WELL THANKS TO
SHADOWING. SO EVEN THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS ARE OUT...THERE STILL COULD
BE SOME CHANGES THANKS TO SOME MESOSCALE ISSUES.
IMPACTS...
DUE TO THE FACT THAT SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOW WITH THIS STORM...AND
BANDING WITH 1+ INCH/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. THIS WILL BE EXACERBATED BY A LLJ AROUND
40 KT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME OF IT/S MOMENTUM.
THEREFORE...THE COMBINATION OF WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND HEAVY WET
SNOW MAY INCREASE THE RISK.
THE OTHER PRIMARY IMPACT IS THAT THE CHANGE-OVER AND HEAVIEST
PRECIP/SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF THE AM
COMMUTE...WITH LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MORE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IN RELATION TO PREVIOUS
PROGS SUGGEST A SLOWER END. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE
DRYING THE LOW LEVELS...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW
LEFTOVER MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MA BEFORE THINGS END BY
EARLY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY DROP OFF DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY CAUSE ANY UNTREATED ROADS TO BE SLIPPERY
FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
LONGWAVE SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WEST AND
DIGGING TROUGH IN THE EAST...POINTING TO WARM TREND WEST AND COOLING
EAST. SMALLER SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW A THREE-RING CIRCUS OF
SHORTWAVES EITHER AFFECTING OR WITH POTENTIAL TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH TWO
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
WHERE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES COULD OCCUR.
MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS ALSO AGREE
ON TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS...ONE WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY AND A SECOND CLOSE
TO SHORE TUESDAY. BUT ALL SHOW DIFFERING SCENARIOS FOR HOW THESE
SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BEST CONFIDENCE IN
HANDLING THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEMS IS WITH THE GEFS /ENSEMBLES/
THE DAILIES...
TONIGHT-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN USA. EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND OVER FRESH SNOW COVER
MAY LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT THAN INDICATED BY GUIDANCE. WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...WE BUMPED
GUIDANCE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES. ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS ALOFT
SHIFTING SOUTHWEST...THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD REACH AROUND 950 MB.
TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.
SUNDAY...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSS THE NORTHEAST USA. THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO LOSE THE FRONT
IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS SUGGEST JUST
A FEW CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC
INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER
40S. THE COLDER AIR ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING MIN TEMPS
ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...GENERATES A
SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST USA COAST. THIS COASTAL LOW THEN MOVES
NORTHEAST AND PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF OUR AREA. NORMALLY THIS PATH
WOULD KEEP PCPN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WE
COULD DEVELOP SUFFICIENT MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE TO BRING
CLOUDS AND PCPN MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...BUT WITH POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW
MIX NEAR THE COAST.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ASHORE FROM THE PACIFIC TONIGHT AND CROSSES
TO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DIGS AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE MIDWEST AND LEADS TO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW THEN MOVES UP
THE COAST TUESDAY AND PASSES OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. EACH MODEL
HANDLES THIS COASTAL LOW DIFFERENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
SOLUTION IS LOW. CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES FEET-DRY ON THE PACIFIC COAST.
BEST DYNAMICS UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET
MOVES OFF TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...SO BEST CHANCE
OF PCPN SHOULD BE ON TUESDAY THEN DIMINISH TO SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. PTYPE AGAIN FAVORS SNOW INLAND AND SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE COAST.
UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL FROM THE MIDWEST LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST
USA THROUGH THURSDAY MAINTAINING SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THROUGH 18Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST
OF THE TERMINALS. THE CHANGE OVER LINE IS PUSHING THROUGH UUU AND
PYM. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS SWITCHING ALL PRECIP TO SNOW. ANTICIPATE SNOW ACCUMS ON
THE RUNWAYS ESP ORH...BOS AND PVD. GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20-30 KTS
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AFTER 15Z.
AFTER 18Z TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SNOWS/RAIN COME TO AN END AND VERY QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY... NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND 35-45
KT ON THE EASTERN WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. SEAS BECOME HIGH...MAINLY 8-10 FT ON THE SE OCEAN
WATERS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN/FOG ACROSS THE WATERS
WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO SNOW NEAR THE EASTERN SHORELINES.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
TONIGHT...DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS EARLY AND
POPPING UNDER 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS AS HIGH AS 14 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT TO 5-7 FEET BY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST WATERS DURING THE
NIGHT.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY BELOW 25 KNOTS BUT
GUSTING NEAR 25 KNOTS EAST OF CAPE ANN SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS
DIMINISH SATURDAY BUT THEN RETURN TO NEAR 5 FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN
SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...NORTH WINDS TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST
NEAR 30 KNOTS EACH DAY. DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL BEHAVIOR OF THE
TWO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS PASSING BY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WINDS TO REACH 35-40 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR GALES AT
THIS TIME...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. WINDS TURN BACK TO NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ003-
004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CTZ002.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ019>022.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ004>007-012>018-026.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ002-003-008>011.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
RIZ007.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
RIZ001>006.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
250-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
236-251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
628 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW PRESSURE
TO TRAVEL ALONG AFTER SUNRISE. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL DELIVER A
MIX OF RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM
SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
630 AM UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
DUAL-POL RADAR DATA SHOWS THE CHANGE OVER LINE SLOWLY MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN RI AND INTO PLYMOUTH MASS. THIS LINE WILL SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ALREADY RECEIVING A FEW 1 INCH REPORTS WHICH LINES UP WITH THE
ONGOING FORECAST. THESE AMOUNTS ARE LOCATED ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN WORCESTER AND TOLLAND COUNTY. BELIEVE THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS.
ALREADY NOTICING SOME BANDING DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
MASS...CENTRAL MASS. THIS LINES UP WITH THE STRONG OMEGA LIFT
WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. COULD SEE VSBYS REDUCED QUICKLY
WITHIN THESE BANDS AND A QUICK INCH OR TWO WITHIN THESE BANDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
*** WESTWARD TREND IN THE SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED FOR WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES TO BE EXPANDED ***
BUSY NIGHT AS WE CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE LATEST DATA AND TRENDS FOR
THIS UPCOMING WINTER SYSTEM. PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENS. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
POOL INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO BE CLOSE TO AN INCH.
BIGGEST TREND BETWEEN THE 12Z AND 00Z RUNS IS THAT THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD TREND.
HEAVY PRECIP SWATH OVER NJ AND EASTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND IMPACT WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. BECAUSE OF THIS
UPSTREAM TREND...HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE ALL OF THE PIONEER VALLEY. ANY PRECIP THAT IS OR WILL FALL
WILL BE SNOW ACROSS THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERKS AS MESONET SITES ARE
ALREADY REPORTING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
GUIDANCE.
ASIDE FROM THE EXPANSION...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF EITHER SNOW...OR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS CENTRAL MASS AND INTO CT. THIS IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST DUAL-POL DATA. HIGHER REFLECTIVITY ECHOES ARE STARTING TO
MOVE INTO WINDHAM COUNTY...WHICH WILL BE EITHER A MIX OR JUST SNOW
AS 925 MB TEMPS ARE ALREADY BELOW 32F PER SPC MESO DATA. ANTICIPATE
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO BE FAIRLY BUSY WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND SURFACE LOW NEARS.
P-TYPE AND CHANGE OVER TIMING...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS COASTAL
LOW MOVES ALONG STALLED COLD FRONT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE PRECIP
SHIED HAS EXPANDED FARTHER WESTWARD THEN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...WHICH
IS THE LATEST TREND IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 06Z NAM.
CHANGE OVER HAS ALREADY STARTED TO OCCUR ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STILL
CONCERNED ABOUT THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE FALLING. ANTICIPATE THE CHANGE
OVER TO MAKE IT TO SOUTHEASTERN MASS INCLUDING BOS AND PVD CLOSER TO
THE 6-8 AM HOUR. THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER AS CAA
WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO REACH THEM. FEEL IT WILL BE CLOSER TO
10AM-NOON. ALTHOUGH SLEET MAY MIX IN DURING THE TRANSITION...BELIEVE
MANY LOCATIONS WILL SWITCH FROM RAIN TO STRAIGHT SNOW.
QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...
HAVE ADJUSTED THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
GENERALLY BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING WILL GET AT
LEAST A SLOPPY 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HILLS WITHIN
TOLLAND...WINDHAM...WORCESTER AND PROVIDENCE COUNTIES. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR QPF. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES. BELIEVE WE HAVE A GOOD TREND GOING
AT THIS TIME. SOME AREAS IN QUESTION WHICH COULD BE UPGRADED WITHIN
THE WARNING IS SOUTHERN BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES. HOWEVER THESE
LOCATIONS MAY BE STUCK IN THE MIX LONGER KEEPING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
LOW. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERK TO AN
ADV AS SNOW IS ALREADY STARTING TO FALL PER WEBCAMS. THE PIONEER AND
CONNECTICUT VALLEY MAY SEE LOWER AMOUNTS AS WELL THANKS TO
SHADOWING. SO EVEN THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS ARE OUT...THERE STILL COULD
BE SOME CHANGES THANKS TO SOME MESOSCALE ISSUES.
IMPACTS...
DUE TO THE FACT THAT SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOW WITH THIS STORM...AND
BANDING WITH 1+ INCH/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. THIS WILL BE EXACERBATED BY A LLJ AROUND
40 KT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME OF IT/S MOMENTUM.
THEREFORE...THE COMBINATION OF WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND HEAVY WET
SNOW MAY INCREASE THE RISK.
THE OTHER PRIMARY IMPACT IS THAT THE CHANGE-OVER AND HEAVIEST
PRECIP/SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF THE AM
COMMUTE...WITH LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MORE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IN RELATION TO PREVIOUS
PROGS SUGGEST A SLOWER END. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE
DRYING THE LOW LEVELS...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW
LEFTOVER MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MA BEFORE THINGS END BY
EARLY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY DROP OFF DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY CAUSE ANY UNTREATED ROADS TO BE SLIPPERY
FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
LONGWAVE SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW BUIDLING RIDGE IN THE WEST AND
DIGGING TROUGH IN THE EAST...POINTING TO WARM TREND WEST AND COOLING
EAST. SMALLER SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW A THREE-RING CIRCUS OF
SHORTWAVES EITHER AFFECTING OR WITH POTENTIAL TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH TWO
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
WHERE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES COULD OCCUR.
MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS ALSO AGREE
ON TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS...ONE WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY AND A SECOND CLOSE
TO SHORE TUESDAY. BUT ALL SHOW DIFFERING SCENARIOS FOR HOW THESE
SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BEST CONFIDENCE IN
HANDLING THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEMS IS WITH THE GEFS /ENSEMBLES/
THE DAILIES...
TONIGHT-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN USA. EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND OVER FRESH SNOW COVER
MAY LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT THAN INDICATED BY GUIDENCE. WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...WE BUMPED
GUIDENCE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES. ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS ALOFT
SHIFTING SOUTHWEST...THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD REACH AROUND 950 MB.
TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.
SUNDAY...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSS THE NORTHEAST USA. THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO LOSE THE FRONT
IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS SUGGEST JUST
A FEW CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC
INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER
40S. THE COLDER AIR ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING MIN TEMPS
ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...GENERATES A
SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST USA COAST. THIS COASTAL LOW THEN MOVES
NORTHEAST AND PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF OUR AREA. NORMALLY THIS PATH
WOULD KEEP PCPN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WE
COULD DEVELOP SUFFICIENT MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE TO BRING
CLOUDS AND PCPN MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...BUT WITH POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW
MIX NEAR THE COAST.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ASHORE FROM THE PACIFIC TONIGHT AND CROSSES
TO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DIGS AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE MIDWEST AND LEADS TO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW THEN MOVES UP
THE COAST TUESDAY AND PASSES OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. EACH MODEL
HANDLES THIS COASTAL LOW DIFFERENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
SOLUTION IS LOW. CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES FEET-DRY ON THE PACIFIC COAST.
BEST DYNAMICS UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET
MOVES OFF TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...SO BEST CHANCE
OF PCPN SHOULD BE ON TUESDAY THEN DIMINISH TO SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. PTYPE AGAIN FAVORS SNOW INLAND AND SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE COAST.
UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL FROM THE MIDWEST LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST
USA THROUGH THURSDAY MAINTAINING SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THROUGH 18Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST
OF THE TERMINALS. THE CHANGE OVER LINE IS PUSHING THROUGH UUU AND
PYM. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS SWITCHING ALL PRECIP TO SNOW. ANTICIPATE SNOW ACCUMS ON
THE RUNWAYS ESP ORH...BOS AND PVD. GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20-30 KTS
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AFTER 15Z.
AFTER 18Z TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SNOWS/RAIN COME TO AN END AND VERY QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.
OUTLOOK /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY... NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND 35-45
KT ON THE EASTERN WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. SEAS BECOME HIGH...MAINLY 8-10 FT ON THE SE OCEAN
WATERS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN/FOG ACROSS THE WATERS
WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO SNOW NEAR THE EASTERN SHORELINES.
OUTLOOK /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
TONIGHT...DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS EARLY AND
POPPING UNDER 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS AS HIGH AS 14 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT TO 5-7 FEET BY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST WATERS DURING THE
NIGHT.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY BELOW 25 KNOTS BUT
GUSTING NEAR 25 KNOTS EAST OF CAPE ANN SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS
DIMINISH SATURDAY BUT THEN RETURN TO NEAR 5 FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN
SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...NORTH WINDS TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST
NEAR 30 KNOTS EACH DAY. DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL BEHAVIOR OF THE
TWO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS PASSING BY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WINDS TO REACH 35-40 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR GALES AT
THIS TIME...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. WINDS TURN BACK TO NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ003-
004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CTZ002.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ019>022.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ004>007-012>018-026.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ002-003-008>011.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
RIZ007.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
RIZ001>006.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
250-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
236-251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1030 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
AFTER A COLD MORNING...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TOWARDS THE 40 DEGREE
MARK TODAY WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. SO
DID A QUICK REFRESH TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST
RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1007 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
HAVE UPDATED THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST TO REMOVE RAIN
FOR ALL OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DURING THIS TIME SHOW THAT PRECIP WILL BE SNOW
DUE TO COMPLETE LACK OF ANY WARM AIR ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPS BEING
NEAR FREEZING OR COLDER. ALSO TRIED TO DO SOME INITIAL FINE TUNING
OF PRECIP TIMING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 800 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO MAINLY FINE TUNE THE T AND TD GRIDS
THROUGH THE MORNING BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
HIGH IS CLEARING THE SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...
ALSO BRINGING AN END TO SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST.
CLEAR SKIES SPREADING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...WILL SUPPORT AN EXTRA DROP OFF IN TEMPS FOR THE VALLEYS
TOWARD DAWN. AS IT STANDS NOW...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION TO THE UPPER
20S ON THE RIDGES AND LOCATIONS STILL UNDER THE CLOUDS ALONG AND
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND
20 DEGREES ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...CURRENTLY.
THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL TAKE ANOTHER BOTTOMING OUT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TODAY. THIS LEAVES EAST KENTUCKY IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING
TODAY AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT...
MAINLY SOUTHERN STREAM...TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WAVE BECOMES MORE ISOLATED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS IT DIVES TO THE GULF COAST AND STARTS TO
PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS SHOW LIMITED
SEPARATION FROM EACH OTHER AT THIS TIME STEP WITH THE GFS THE
WEAKEST AND CANADIAN A CLOSE MATCH TO THE ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE
NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH ONLY A WEAK STREAM OF ENERGY SET TO DRIFT OVER THE
STATE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND WAS USED FOR THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST...
WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR NEAR TERM DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY UNDER THE CONTROL...A TERM USED LOOSELY...OF WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE. IN FACT...GIVEN SOME LIMITED ENERGY ALOFT AND THE WAVE
PASSING TO THE SOUTH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FOR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THOUGH HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST
GRIDS FOR NOW. WHAT WE WILL HAVE IS MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH READINGS REACHING THE UPPER 40S AND
LOW 50S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR
TODAY...GOOD SUNSHINE...AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...WILL ERASE A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S MOST PLACES
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND FOR T/TD/WIND GRIDS TODAY BEFORE
FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH SATURDAY. DID ADJUST THE MIN TEMPS
A TAD THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT FOR MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW...SINGLE DIGITS...IN LINE
WITH MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH THEY MAY BE A
HAIR TOO LOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD START OFF QUIETLY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO END THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY TOPPING AROUND 50 ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE STEADILY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY EVENING...AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BARRELS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT
THE FIRST PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY MIX WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S. THE PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW COLD AIR TO SPILL QUICKLY
INTO THE REGION. THIS CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES CAUSE THE RAIN TO
TRANSITION QUICKLY TO A RAIN SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW BY LATE
MONDAY EVENING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION AND TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND FREEZING. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PERIODS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN RAIN MAY MIX
WITH THE SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THE LAST BIT OF SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO DRY AND
COLD.
THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGHS ON
THAT DAY ARE ONLY FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS ON THAT DAY FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE
COLDEST NIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE MERCURY WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER TEENS BOTH NIGHTS. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE LOWS IN
THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
OVER THE AREA.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1007 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
HAVE UPDATED THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST TO REMOVE RAIN
FOR ALL OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DURING THIS TIME SHOW THAT PRECIP WILL BE SNOW
DUE TO COMPLETE LACK OF ANY WARM AIR ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPS BEING
NEAR FREEZING OR COLDER. ALSO TRIED TO DO SOME INITIAL FINE TUNING
OF PRECIP TIMING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 800 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO MAINLY FINE TUNE THE T AND TD GRIDS
THROUGH THE MORNING BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
HIGH IS CLEARING THE SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...
ALSO BRINGING AN END TO SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST.
CLEAR SKIES SPREADING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...WILL SUPPORT AN EXTRA DROP OFF IN TEMPS FOR THE VALLEYS
TOWARD DAWN. AS IT STANDS NOW...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION TO THE UPPER
20S ON THE RIDGES AND LOCATIONS STILL UNDER THE CLOUDS ALONG AND
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND
20 DEGREES ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...CURRENTLY.
THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL TAKE ANOTHER BOTTOMING OUT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TODAY. THIS LEAVES EAST KENTUCKY IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING
TODAY AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT...
MAINLY SOUTHERN STREAM...TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WAVE BECOMES MORE ISOLATED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS IT DIVES TO THE GULF COAST AND STARTS TO
PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS SHOW LIMITED
SEPARATION FROM EACH OTHER AT THIS TIME STEP WITH THE GFS THE
WEAKEST AND CANADIAN A CLOSE MATCH TO THE ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE
NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH ONLY A WEAK STREAM OF ENERGY SET TO DRIFT OVER THE
STATE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND WAS USED FOR THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST...
WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR NEAR TERM DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY UNDER THE CONTROL...A TERM USED LOOSELY...OF WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE. IN FACT...GIVEN SOME LIMITED ENERGY ALOFT AND THE WAVE
PASSING TO THE SOUTH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FOR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THOUGH HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST
GRIDS FOR NOW. WHAT WE WILL HAVE IS MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH READINGS REACHING THE UPPER 40S AND
LOW 50S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR
TODAY...GOOD SUNSHINE...AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...WILL ERASE A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S MOST PLACES
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND FOR T/TD/WIND GRIDS TODAY BEFORE
FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH SATURDAY. DID ADJUST THE MIN TEMPS
A TAD THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT FOR MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW...SINGLE DIGITS...IN LINE
WITH MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH THEY MAY BE A
HAIR TOO LOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD START OFF QUIETLY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO END THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY TOPPING AROUND 50 ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE STEADILY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY EVENING...AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BARRELS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT
THE FIRST PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY MIX WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S. THE PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW COLD AIR TO SPILL QUICKLY
INTO THE REGION. THIS CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES CAUSE THE RAIN TO
TRANSITION QUICKLY TO A RAIN SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW BY LATE
MONDAY EVENING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION AND TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND FREEZING. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PERIODS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN RAIN MAY MIX
WITH THE SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THE LAST BIT OF SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO DRY AND
COLD.
THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGHS ON
THAT DAY ARE ONLY FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS ON THAT DAY FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE
COLDEST NIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE MERCURY WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER TEENS BOTH NIGHTS. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE LOWS IN
THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
OVER THE AREA.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL/GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
800 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 800 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO MAINLY FINE TUNE THE T AND TD GRIDS
THROUGH THE MORNING BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
HIGH IS CLEARING THE SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...
ALSO BRINGING AN END TO SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST.
CLEAR SKIES SPREADING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...WILL SUPPORT AN EXTRA DROP OFF IN TEMPS FOR THE VALLEYS
TOWARD DAWN. AS IT STANDS NOW...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION TO THE UPPER
20S ON THE RIDGES AND LOCATIONS STILL UNDER THE CLOUDS ALONG AND
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND
20 DEGREES ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...CURRENTLY.
THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL TAKE ANOTHER BOTTOMING OUT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TODAY. THIS LEAVES EAST KENTUCKY IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING
TODAY AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT...
MAINLY SOUTHERN STREAM...TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WAVE BECOMES MORE ISOLATED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS IT DIVES TO THE GULF COAST AND STARTS TO
PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS SHOW LIMITED
SEPARATION FROM EACH OTHER AT THIS TIME STEP WITH THE GFS THE
WEAKEST AND CANADIAN A CLOSE MATCH TO THE ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE
NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH ONLY A WEAK STREAM OF ENERGY SET TO DRIFT OVER THE
STATE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND WAS USED FOR THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST...
WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR NEAR TERM DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY UNDER THE CONTROL...A TERM USED LOOSELY...OF WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE. IN FACT...GIVEN SOME LIMITED ENERGY ALOFT AND THE WAVE
PASSING TO THE SOUTH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FOR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THOUGH HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST
GRIDS FOR NOW. WHAT WE WILL HAVE IS MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH READINGS REACHING THE UPPER 40S AND
LOW 50S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR
TODAY...GOOD SUNSHINE...AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...WILL ERASE A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S MOST PLACES
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND FOR T/TD/WIND GRIDS TODAY BEFORE
FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH SATURDAY. DID ADJUST THE MIN TEMPS
A TAD THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT FOR MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW...SINGLE DIGITS...IN LINE
WITH MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH THEY MAY BE A
HAIR TOO LOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD START OFF QUIETLY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO END THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY TOPPING AROUND 50 ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE STEADILY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY EVENING...AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BARRELS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT
THE FIRST PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY MIX WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S. THE PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW COLD AIR TO SPILL QUICKLY
INTO THE REGION. THIS CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES CAUSE THE RAIN TO
TRANSITION QUICKLY TO A RAIN SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW BY LATE
MONDAY EVENING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION AND TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND FREEZING. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PERIODS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN RAIN MAY MIX
WITH THE SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THE LAST BIT OF SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO DRY AND
COLD.
THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGHS ON
THAT DAY ARE ONLY FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS ON THAT DAY FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE
COLDEST NIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE MERCURY WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER TEENS BOTH NIGHTS. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE LOWS IN
THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
OVER THE AREA.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
947 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 942 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016
12z NAM initialized a stronger vorticity max over south central NE
than shown in earlier progs. RAP is a bit weaker. Both models track
the feature east this morning/afternoon. Area of light snow tied to
this feature will be moving into a rather dry airmass as noted by the
dirt-dry sub-cloud region on the 12z TOP raob. Latest short-range
models are more bullish in keeping this area of snow intact, albiet
diminishing it as it moves into far northwest MO. NAM also showing
moderate moist isentropic ascent on the 280-285K surfaces. Will add
chance PoPs to far northwest MO for this afternoon with sligth
chances spreading across the northern two tier of counties. Will
monitor radar trends and if the snow holds together better than
anticipated will look to raise PoPs.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016
Very little change to the going forecast philosophy, with overall
quiet weather on the horizon. Two shortwave troughs will be featured
over the next few days, but with limited moisture, little in the way
of sensible weather will be noted for the area. Mid/high clouds will
steadily increase during the day with readings warming into the
middle 30s to middle 40s. The first disturbance arrives overnight
and besides the increase in cloud cover, a few sprinkles cannot be
completely ruled out. Downglide quickly clears out cloud cover as
system departs on Saturday, with a continued mild weekend on tap for
the weekend. The second disturbance arrives Sunday/Monday, with
slightly more notable weather. A strengthening pressure gradient
will allow for gusty northwesterly winds on Sunday. Enough dynamics
and low-level moisture may allow for light precipitation in the
form of snow over the eastern two-thirds of the CWA. Much colder air
will advect into the area as the pattern becomes much more amplified
heading into early next week before readings gradually moderate to
near normal levels by the middle of the work week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 537 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016
VFR conditions are expected through much of the period with a gradual
lowering of high to mid level cloudiness throughout the day. Main
concern is potential for MVFR/IFR window between 09-13Z Saturday
with either scattered stratus and/or drizzle. Have not included into
forecast with high uncertainy and being end of the period, but will
need to be closely monitored.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
440 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HAVE CROSSED NORTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO BY MID DAY TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT SPILLING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE STATE. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTH
CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS IN THE PLAINS. SNOW WILL TEND TO FAVOR THE PEAKS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS EASTWARD TO THE RATON
RIDGE AND JOHNSON MESA WHERE SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH PERIODIC MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. A STRAY
SHOWER MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT AREAS AS FAR SOUTH AS KTCC...BUT THIS
WILL BE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY WITH NO LONG DURATION IMPACTS
EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KT WILL BE COMMON ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO
TODAY. SHOWERS WILL CLEAR AROUND DUSK WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...315 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
TODAY...BRINGING A REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR...GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AND SOME MEAGER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND WILL THEN DOMINATE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND STEERS STORMS AWAY FROM NEW
MEXICO THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
SEASONAL VALUES OR ABOVE BY NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER DAY...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND EAST...BUT OVERALL NOT ANTICIPATING SPEEDS
WILL REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE THERE COULD BE SOME
MOSTLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND
ALONG THE FAR NORTHEAST...SUCH AS RATON PASS/SIERRA GRANDE WHERE
THEY COULD SEE POSSIBLY AN INCH OR TWO...BUT NOT THINKING IT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ANY WINTER TYPE HIGHLIGHTS. HRRR DOES SUGGEST
SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN...AS WELL AS THE ECMWF WHICH PAINTS ISOLATED MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS IN THE EAST CENTRAL...BOTH WHERE CURRENT GRIDS HAVE LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT POPS TODAY. SO LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION TRENDING TOWARDS GREATER AREAL COVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT PLUMMET AGAIN FOR THE NORTHERN MTS...BUT
GUIDANCE DOESN/T INDICATE IT WILL BE QUITE AS COLD AS THURSDAY
MORNING LOWS WERE. ANOTHER DRY WAVE SENDS A FRONT INTO NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY BUT COOLING EFFECTS MORE LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS.
THEREAFTER...DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND WILL DOMINATE NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES FINALLY REBOUND TO NORMAL OR ABOVE BY TUESDAY
OVERALL. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT. LATE NEXT WEEK...THE GFS ALLOWS
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE DRAWN INTO NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH STRETCHED THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THE ECMWF DEPICTS MORE OF
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM...DRIER AND COOLER.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ONE QUICK-MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWUNG THROUGH NORTHERN NM EARLIER
LAST EVENING...AND A SECOND ONE IS QUICKLY FOLLOWING ON ITS HEELS
AND WILL CROSS OVER NORTHEAST NM BY LATE MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS
ALSO DROPPING SOUTH INTO NM...AND THIS WILL BRING A TEMPORARY
CESSATION TO THE WARMING TREND. SOME LOWER-BASED CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTH
CENTRAL NM...GRADUALLY EXTENDING INTO NORTHEASTERN NM BY MID DAY.
ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY A
COUPLE OF INCHES FORESEEN NEAR THE RATON RIDGE/PASS. AS THE COLD
FRONT SPILLS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA...SOME WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
NM. IT WILL BE HERE WHERE VENTILATION RATES WILL BE BOOSTED...BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT SMOKE DISPERSION RATES TO REMAIN IN THE POOR
CATEGORY TODAY.
AS THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS MORE WEST NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY...IT WILL
RELAX AND BECOME MORE STABLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO RISING PRESSURE
HEIGHTS AND CONSEQUENTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH SATURDAYS HIGHS
RISING 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE TODAYS. THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NM WILL
OBSERVE THE LARGEST GAINS WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS. STIFF
SURFACE/20FT BREEZES WILL STILL TAKE SHAPE IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COME LOWER HUMIDITY. PATCHES OF CENTRAL NM
AND MOST OF THE EASTERN ZONES WILL OBSERVE MINIMUM HUMIDITY OF 10-20
PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE AREA OF STRONGER WINDS IN THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE JUXTAPOSED OVER ANY CRITICAL
RH AREAS AT THIS TIME. POOR VENTILATION IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.
THEN THE FLOW RETURNS TO A MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL COMPONENT FROM THE
NORTHWEST HOSTING YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT. THIS PERTURBATION
SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF NM EARLY SUNDAY...BUT STILL THE
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF NM. ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO SLIP INTO EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY
SUNDAY...BUT THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOES NOT APPEAR TO DISRUPT THE
FORECAST AREA FROM REACHING NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY. AFTER SUNDAY...THE THEME FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE A
DRY...TRANQUIL...AND WARMER PATTERN. VENTILATION RATES WILL
SUFFER...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
52
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
315 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
TODAY...BRINGING A REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR...GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AND SOME MEAGER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND WILL THEN DOMINATE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND STEERS STORMS AWAY FROM NEW
MEXICO THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
SEASONAL VALUES OR ABOVE BY NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER DAY...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND EAST...BUT OVERALL NOT ANTICIPATING SPEEDS
WILL REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE THERE COULD BE SOME
MOSTLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND
ALONG THE FAR NORTHEAST...SUCH AS RATON PASS/SIERRA GRANDE WHERE
THEY COULD SEE POSSIBLY AN INCH OR TWO...BUT NOT THINKING IT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ANY WINTER TYPE HIGHLIGHTS. HRRR DOES SUGGEST
SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN...AS WELL AS THE ECMWF WHICH PAINTS ISOLATED MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS IN THE EAST CENTRAL...BOTH WHERE CURRENT GRIDS HAVE LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT POPS TODAY. SO LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION TRENDING TOWARDS GREATER AREAL COVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT PLUMMET AGAIN FOR THE NORTHERN MTS...BUT
GUIDANCE DOESN/T INDICATE IT WILL BE QUITE AS COLD AS THURSDAY
MORNING LOWS WERE. ANOTHER DRY WAVE SENDS A FRONT INTO NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY BUT COOLING EFFECTS MORE LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS.
THEREAFTER...DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND WILL DOMINATE NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES FINALLY REBOUND TO NORMAL OR ABOVE BY TUESDAY
OVERALL. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT. LATE NEXT WEEK...THE GFS ALLOWS
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE DRAWN INTO NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH STRETCHED THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THE ECMWF DEPICTS MORE OF
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM...DRIER AND COOLER.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ONE QUICK-MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWUNG THROUGH NORTHERN NM EARLIER
LAST EVENING...AND A SECOND ONE IS QUICKLY FOLLOWING ON ITS HEELS
AND WILL CROSS OVER NORTHEAST NM BY LATE MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS
ALSO DROPPING SOUTH INTO NM...AND THIS WILL BRING A TEMPORARY
CESSATION TO THE WARMING TREND. SOME LOWER-BASED CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTH
CENTRAL NM...GRADUALLY EXTENDING INTO NORTHEASTERN NM BY MID DAY.
ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY A
COUPLE OF INCHES FORESEEN NEAR THE RATON RIDGE/PASS. AS THE COLD
FRONT SPILLS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA...SOME WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
NM. IT WILL BE HERE WHERE VENTILATION RATES WILL BE BOOSTED...BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT SMOKE DISPERSION RATES TO REMAIN IN THE POOR
CATEGORY TODAY.
AS THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS MORE WEST NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY...IT WILL
RELAX AND BECOME MORE STABLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO RISING PRESSURE
HEIGHTS AND CONSEQUENTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH SATURDAYS HIGHS
RISING 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE TODAYS. THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NM WILL
OBSERVE THE LARGEST GAINS WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS. STIFF
SURFACE/20FT BREEZES WILL STILL TAKE SHAPE IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COME LOWER HUMIDITY. PATCHES OF CENTRAL NM
AND MOST OF THE EASTERN ZONES WILL OBSERVE MINIMUM HUMIDITY OF 10-20
PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE AREA OF STRONGER WINDS IN THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE JUXTAPOSED OVER ANY CRITICAL
RH AREAS AT THIS TIME. POOR VENTILATION IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.
THEN THE FLOW RETURNS TO A MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL COMPONENT FROM THE
NORTHWEST HOSTING YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT. THIS PERTURBATION
SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF NM EARLY SUNDAY...BUT STILL THE
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF NM. ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO SLIP INTO EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY
SUNDAY...BUT THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOES NOT APPEAR TO DISRUPT THE
FORECAST AREA FROM REACHING NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY. AFTER SUNDAY...THE THEME FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE A
DRY...TRANQUIL...AND WARMER PATTERN. VENTILATION RATES WILL
SUFFER...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
52
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24
HRS. MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS WILL EXIT THE STATE IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUNCH SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS
AT TCC AND ROW MID TO LATE MORNING. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KT
AT TCC AND ROW DURING THE DAY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE NE FRIDAY BUT CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR
CONDITIONS.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 34 10 38 17 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 28 -11 34 0 / 5 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 30 3 37 13 / 5 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 39 1 47 10 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 35 -2 43 7 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 39 0 47 10 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 35 6 46 15 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 46 12 53 18 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 25 -10 33 6 / 10 0 5 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 32 13 40 22 / 5 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 35 13 41 21 / 10 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 27 -9 36 7 / 10 0 0 5
RED RIVER....................... 22 -17 34 -2 / 10 0 0 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 25 -21 37 -5 / 20 0 0 5
TAOS............................ 31 -7 38 8 / 5 0 0 0
MORA............................ 33 9 43 19 / 10 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 36 8 44 18 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 32 10 40 19 / 5 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 35 12 42 20 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 38 15 44 23 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 41 18 46 25 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 42 12 47 21 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 41 14 47 22 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 43 13 48 19 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 40 17 46 24 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 45 20 50 25 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 35 13 42 22 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 37 14 43 23 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 38 1 46 15 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 32 13 40 22 / 5 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 39 17 46 25 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 44 20 49 27 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 38 21 47 30 / 0 5 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 32 4 48 19 / 30 0 0 5
RATON........................... 36 3 49 17 / 20 0 0 5
SPRINGER........................ 35 6 49 18 / 10 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 34 8 50 22 / 5 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 37 18 56 25 / 10 0 0 0
ROY............................. 38 15 54 24 / 5 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 42 16 56 25 / 5 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 43 17 57 26 / 5 5 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 45 18 59 26 / 0 5 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 44 20 57 28 / 5 5 0 0
PORTALES........................ 45 19 58 28 / 5 5 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 46 18 58 27 / 5 5 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 50 17 61 27 / 0 5 0 0
PICACHO......................... 47 22 57 32 / 0 5 0 0
ELK............................. 44 21 54 31 / 0 5 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1015 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM FRIDAY...
THE EARLY MORNING RAIN/SNOW MIX HAS FIZZLED AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN
FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...WHICH IS NOW SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND. LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND 4000K FT IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND SOME VERY SHALLOW INSTABILITY...PER RAP SOUNDINGS...COULD
STILL RESULT IN A FEW RAIN DROPS EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR THROUGH
NOON. HOWEVER...WITH THE MOISTURE STEADILY ERODING AND STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT...HAVE REMOVED REMAIN POPS. COLD
ADVECTION AT 850MB IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO BETWEEN 925MB AND 850NMB SUPPORTS HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S...A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. -SMITH
WINDS DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR
SKIES... AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST SHIFTS
OVERHEAD. LOWS 23-29... COLDEST IN THE RURAL PIEDMONT AND WRN
SANDHILLS. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...
THE WEEKEND WILL START OUT QUIET... ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON
THE RISE... WITH PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE LATE SAT NIGHT IN THE
FAR SE. INITIALLY DRY AND STABLE AIR OVER CENTRAL NC WILL LEAD TO
CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE TO START SAT. THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SW
TO NE ACROSS NC EARLY SAT WILL NARROW FURTHER AND BE OVERTAKEN BY
LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE BAHAMAS ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE... IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE APPROACH OF A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW DIVING DOWN THROUGH ERN CO/NM. AS THIS
AMPLIFYING WAVE CROSSES THE GULF STATES/NRN GULF AND SOUTHEAST
SAT/SAT NIGHT... THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN QUICKLY AND
TRACK TO THE NE... STAYING FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO BE OF LITTLE
CONSEQUENCE FOR CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER... A FEW MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ATLANTIC MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW TO
SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP INTO OUR FAR SE CWA OVERNIGHT. THE LOW LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT DRY BELOW 5 000 FT... WHICH WOULD
MAKE ANY PRECIP VERY LIGHT WITH ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS. PARTIAL
THICKNESSES SUPPORT THIS PRECIP BEING MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW... AND THIS
IS ALSO WHAT IS INDICATED BY THE TOP-DOWN METHODOLOGY... AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD SATURATION UP TO AND ABOVE -20C WITH A COLD
COLUMN. WILL BRING IN SMALL POPS IN OUR SOUTHEAST SAT NIGHT BUT WITH
MINIMAL QPF AND NO NOTABLE IMPACT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SAT
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH SOME RECOVERY IN THICKNESSES. LOWS
FROM THE UPPER 20S NW TO LOWER 30S SE. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...
SUNDAYS PROMINENT WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS AND THE SURFACE LOW OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST. WHILE MUCH OF THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OFF OF THE
COAST...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TO CREEP INTO THE
EASTERN THIRD OF OUR CWA ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE STORM. AT THIS
TIME MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN WITH
POTENTIALLY SOME WET SNOW MIXED IN PER NOMOGRAM THICKNESSES. DRY LOW
LEVELS MAY KEEP SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND
FOR A WHILE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD EXIT TO THE
EAST BY SUNDAY EVENING AT THE LATEST. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM AT THIS TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY SHIFT
IN THE GUIDANCE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 50 DEGREES WITH AN
UNUSUAL TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION OF WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST
AND COLDEST IN THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO GREATER CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE STORM. LOWS MONDAY
MORNING NEAR FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS.
MONDAY WILL BEGIN WITH A LULL BETWEEN THE EXITING COASTAL SYSTEM AND
THE NEXT LARGE UNORGANIZED SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL
USHER IN ARCTIC AIR FROM CANADA. TIMING OF THE WEAK FRONT THAT WILL
SIGNAL THE ARRIVAL OF THIS COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY
SO TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH WILL STILL MAKE IT TO THE LOW 50S WITH
MID 40S IN THE TRIAD. AS THIS IS A CONTINENTAL AIRMASS...THERE IS
NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM AT ALL AND PW VALUES REMAIN BELOW
A HALF OF AN INCH. THAT BEING SAID...THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...BEGINNING MOST LIKELY AFTER 15Z ON
MONDAY AS RAIN. ANYTHING THAT FALLS SHOULD REMAIN RAIN UNTIL LATER
IN THE EVENING WHEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO ALL SNOW
AFTER 3Z TUESDAY AS NOMOGRAM THICKNESSES TANK. BY THIS TIME
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA AND ANY SNOW
SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE AT THIS TIME. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S NW TO LOW 30S SE.
SOME INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY BUT OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE AS QPF VALUES REMAIN VERY LOW.
EVENTUALLY THE VERY DRY AIR WILL TAKE OVER AND THE COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL BECOME THE MAIN STORY AS HIGHS TUESDAY ONLY MAKE THE LOW TO MID
40S AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT DIVE INTO THE MID 20S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
THE COLDEST DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES AND
WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS. DESPITE THE
COLD...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ON THURSDAY THE UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO FINALLY LIFT OUT AND TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 605 AM FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD AT INT/GSO THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS... HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OVER ERN TAFS THROUGH
13Z... WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT THESE SITES BY 15Z. A FRONTAL ZONE
NOW SITS NEAR THE NC COAST... AND LOW PRESSURE NOW JUST EAST OF ILM
WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NE ALONG THE FRONT. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN
MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES WILL AFFECT ERN TERMINALS
(RDU/RWI/FAY) BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z... AS A POWERFUL DISTURBANCE ALOFT
CROSSES THE REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING A QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT
PRECIP LASTING JUST AN HOUR OR TWO... MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SNOW MIXED WITH LIGHT RAIN. AFTER ABOUT 15Z... VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE AT ALL SITES FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS FROM THE N AND NW WILL BE 10-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 18-23 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON... AFTER
WHICH TIME SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME LIGHT FROM THE
NORTH FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT... WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING.
LOOKING BEYOND 12Z SAT MORNING... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND... ALTHOUGH A LOW TRACKING OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST MAY BRING A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP TO FAY EARLY SUN MORNING. THE
CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS WILL BE LOW. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND
PATCHY PRECIP TO ALL SITES MON AFTERNOON INTO TUE. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/SMITH
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1056 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT...BRINGING
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
START THE NEW WORK WEEK AS A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
LAST HURRAH OF SNOW FROM THE UPPER SHORT WAVE IS PRESSING SWRD
THRU THE CENTRAL COS RIGHT NOW. VIZ HAS OCCASIONALLY BE INTO LIFR
AT BFD...BUT THEY ARE IMPROVING. IT JUST STARTED SNOWING OUT THE
WINDOW AND THE CENTRAL MTNS WILL SEE MAINLY FLURRIES OR LIGHT SHSN
INTO THE EARLY AFTN. IT MAY EVEN SNOW AT KMNDT - JUST AS HEAVILY
AS IT DID ALL LAST NIGHT. ALL IN ALL...IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR IN
THE AFTN WITH CLEARING OVER WRN PA ATTM. FLOW BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY THRU THE REST OF THE DAY. BUT CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE
NRN MTNS ALL DAY.
PREV...
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO STREAK UP OVER MY SERN ZONES...WITH
FLURRIES FARTHER WEST OVER THE LAURELS AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
HRRR AND RAP SHOW THE SNOW SHUTTING OFF QUICKLY BY MID MORNING.
QPF ON THE ORDER OF A TRACE TO UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH REMAINS
THE CONSENSUS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
SO ACCUMULATIONS IF THERE ARE ANY WILL PROBABLY BE CONFINED TO
GRASSY SURFACES.
FARTHER WEST A SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS HELPING TRIGGER SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS THAT ARE GAINING A LITTLE PUSH FROM SOME OROGRAPHIC
FORCING. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME
LINGERING FLURRIES OVER THE USUAL HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NW...AS
THE UPPER HEIGHTS REBOUND RAPIDLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY.
CLOUDS WILL BREAK OVER OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
TEMPS WILL DROP OFF INTO THE 20S REGION-WIDE TONIGHT...WHICH FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH THE MOST CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN
AREAS...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES. HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THE
TIME OF YEAR...RISING INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN IS MADE TO EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN US
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW FORECAST TO DROP
STEEPLY SE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO OHIO VALLEY. AT
THIS TIME THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF DO NOT GENERATE ANY KIND OF
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW/HEAVY PRECIP THREAT...BUT THE ENSEMBLE
PLUMES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH ANYWHERE
FROM AN INCH OR TWO TO A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW. ECENS SHOWS A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...FAVORING THE HIGHER WESTERN AND NORTHERN
AREAS. THE MAIN THING IS THERE IS NO INDICATION OF A SINGLE ROBUST
SURFACE LOW THAT WOULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
STORMINESS...YET.
THE SEEMINGLY MOST CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT THE UPPER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING OVER THE EASTERN US...DRIVING
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION...AND A CHUNK OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
DOWN INTO THE GULF STATES. THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE NORMAL LAKE
EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO LATE WEEK AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT KEEP US ON THE
CHILLY AND UNSETTLED SIDE.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THIS AFTN...BUT SOME MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER LATE THIS AM AND EARLY AFTN IN THE CENTRAL
TAF SITES - WITH JST AND BFD LIKELY IMPROVING FASTER THAN UNV.
WIND WILL BACK WEST THEN SW AS HIGH PRES SLIDES IN .
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
MON-TUE...SNOW/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY W MTNS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
643 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP AND JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST EARLY TODAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ITS WAKE AND
BRINGS FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL START THE NEW WORKWEEK AS A COMPLEX AND SLOW MOVING STORM
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO STREAK UP OVER MY SERN ZONES...WITH
FLURRIES FARTHER WEST OVER THE LAURELS AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
HRRR AND RAP SHOW THE SNOW SHUTTING OFF QUICKLY BY MID MORNING.
QPF ON THE ORDER OF A TRACE TO UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH REMAINS
THE CONSENSUS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
SO ACCUMULATIONS IF THERE ARE ANY WILL PROBABLY BE CONFINED TO
GRASSY SURFACES.
FARTHER WEST A SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS HELPING TRIGGER SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS THAT ARE GAINING A LITTLE PUSH FROM SOME OROGRAPHIC
FORCING. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME
LINGERING FLURRIES OVER THE USUAL HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NW...AS
THE UPPER HEIGHTS REBOUND RAPIDLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY.
CLOUDS WILL BREAK OVER OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
TEMPS WILL DROP OFF INTO THE 20S REGION-WIDE TONIGHT...WHICH FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH THE MOST CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN
AREAS...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES. HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THE
TIME OF YEAR...RISING INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN IS MADE TO EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN US
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW FORECAST TO DROP
STEEPLY SE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO OHIO VALLEY. AT
THIS TIME THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF DO NOT GENERATE ANY KIND OF
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW/HEAVY PRECIP THREAT...BUT THE ENSEMBLE
PLUMES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH ANYWHERE
FROM AN INCH OR TWO TO A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW. ECENS SHOWS A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...FAVORING THE HIGHER WESTERN AND NORTHERN
AREAS. THE MAIN THING IS THERE IS NO INDICATION OF A SINGLE ROBUST
SURFACE LOW THAT WOULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
STORMINESS...YET.
THE SEEMINGLY MOST CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT THE UPPER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING OVER THE EASTERN US...DRIVING
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION...AND A CHUNK OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
DOWN INTO THE GULF STATES. THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE NORMAL LAKE
EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO LATE WEEK AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT KEEP US ON THE
CHILLY AND UNSETTLED SIDE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z TAFS SENT.
NOT MANY CHANGES.
SOME SNOW TO THE SE. ALSO A PATCH OF SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE
OFFICE.
WILL BE WATCHING THE RADAR CLOSELY...CONCERN TO HOW FAR WEST
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD MOVE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ON THE COLD FRONT AND TRACKS NE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING.
FURTHER WEST...STILL EXPECTING MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT
JST AND BFD TODAY.
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD IMPROVE BY THIS EVENING...AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
MON-TUE...SNOW/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY W MTNS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ICE EFFECTS AT MARIETTA WILL CONTINUE FOR QUITE A WHILE. BUT
FLOWS ARE NOT VERY HIGH. THE LOCAL STREAMS WILL START TO COME DOWN
SOME...BUT SHOW DAILY AFTN BUMPS UP AS RESIDUAL SNOW MELTS WITH
AFTN TEMPS IN THE 40S EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHERE PATCHY SNOW
LINGERS IN THE SE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION...AS MORE RAIN AND SNOW
NOT THAT FAR AWAY.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
HYDROLOGY...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
624 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP AND JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST EARLY TODAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ITS WAKE AND
BRINGS FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL START THE NEW WORKWEEK AS A COMPLEX AND SLOW MOVING STORM
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO STREAK UP OVER MY SERN ZONES...WITH
FLURRIES FARTHER WEST OVER THE LAURELS AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
HRRR AND RAP SHOW THE SNOW SHUTTING OFF QUICKLY BY MID MORNING.
QPF ON THE ORDER OF A TRACE TO UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH REMAINS
THE CONSENSUS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
SO ACCUMULATIONS IF THERE ARE ANY WILL PROBABLY BE CONFINED TO
GRASSY SURFACES.
FARTHER WEST A SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS HELPING TRIGGER SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS THAT ARE GAINING A LITTLE PUSH FROM SOME OROGRAPHIC
FORCING. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME
LINGERING FLURRIES OVER THE USUAL HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NW...AS
THE UPPER HEIGHTS REBOUND RAPIDLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY.
CLOUDS WILL BREAK OVER OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
TEMPS WILL DROP OFF INTO THE 20S REGION-WIDE TONIGHT...WHICH FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH THE MOST CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN
AREAS...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES. HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THE
TIME OF YEAR...RISING INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN IS MADE TO EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN US
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW FORECAST TO DROP
STEEPLY SE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO OHIO VALLEY. AT
THIS TIME THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF DO NOT GENERATE ANY KIND OF
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW/HEAVY PRECIP THREAT...BUT THE ENSEMBLE
PLUMES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH ANYWHERE
FROM AN INCH OR TWO TO A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW. ECENS SHOWS A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...FAVORING THE HIGHER WESTERN AND NORTHERN
AREAS. THE MAIN THING IS THERE IS NO INDICATION OF A SINGLE ROBUST
SURFACE LOW THAT WOULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
STORMINESS...YET.
THE SEEMINGLY MOST CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT THE UPPER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING OVER THE EASTERN US...DRIVING
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION...AND A CHUNK OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
DOWN INTO THE GULF STATES. THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE NORMAL LAKE
EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO LATE WEEK AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT KEEP US ON THE
CHILLY AND UNSETTLED SIDE.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
09Z TAFS SENT.
NOT MANY CHANGES.
SOME SNOW TO THE SE.
WILL BE WATCHING THE RADAR CLOSELY...CONCERN TO HOW FAR WEST
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD MOVE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ON THE COLD FRONT AND TRACKS NE.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN ACROSS CENTRAL PA THRU 06Z WILL BE MVFR
STRATOCU DECK/SCT FLURRIES AT KBFD/KJST ASSOC WITH WEAK OROGRAPHIC
LIFT OVR THE MTNS.
FOCUS LATE TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TOWARD SE PA...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRES
LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST. ALL THE LATEST MDL DATA SUGGESTS KLNS
WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD
TO A PERIOD OF LOW /IFR/ VSBYS AT KLNS BTWN 08Z-12Z FRIDAY. LATEST
HRRR OUTPUT AS OF 03Z SUGGESTS THE SIG VIS REDUCTIONS MAY REMAIN
JUST EAST OF KLNS...BUT TOO CLOSE TO CALL ATTM. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN AT LEAST MVFR CONDS AT KBFD AND KJST FRIDAY MORNING WITH OCNL
-SHSN. LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR PRODUCTS SUGGEST
OCNL IFR CONDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT KBFD/KJST EARLY FRIDAY AM...AS
BLYR MOISTURE/-SHSN INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
MOVING IN FROM THE W.
ANY SNOW AT KLNS SHOULD END BY ARND 11Z. FOCUS WILL THEN BE ON
LINGERING STRATOCU ACROSS THE W MTNS. MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EVEN
KBFD/KJST WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDS BY AFTN...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
MON-TUE...SNOW/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY W MTNS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ICE EFFECTS AT MARIETTA WILL CONTINUE FOR QUITE A WHILE. BUT
FLOWS ARE NOT VERY HIGH. THE LOCAL STREAMS WILL START TO COME DOWN
SOME...BUT SHOW DAILY AFTN BUMPS UP AS RESIDUAL SNOW MELTS WITH
AFTN TEMPS IN THE 40S EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHERE PATCHY SNOW
LINGERS IN THE SE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION...AS MORE RAIN AND SNOW
NOT THAT FAR AWAY.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1231 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW PRESSURE
TO TRAVEL ALONG AFTER SUNRISE. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL DELIVER A
MIX OF RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM
SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
1 PM UPDATE...
CONTINUE TO REVISE SNOW MAP AS STRONG BANDING CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS BOTH ERN MA AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MA AT THIS TIME. HAVE
REPORTS ALREADY EXCEEDING 8 INCHES IN SEVERAL SPOTS AS A RESULT OF
THESE BANDS. RATIOS USED LIKELY TOO LOW IS PART OF THE ISSUE AS
THE FEW REPORTS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENTS ARE ON TARGET WITH QPF.
OTHERWISE...TIMING STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR ENDING LATER TODAY/THIS
AFTERNOON.
HAVE ADDED ADVISORIES FOR CAPE/VINEYARD AND ALSO HOISTED WIND
ADVISORIES THERE AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS THE LOW
PRES MAKES IT/S CLOSEST PASS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
*** WESTWARD TREND IN THE SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED FOR WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES TO BE EXPANDED ***
BUSY NIGHT AS WE CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE LATEST DATA AND TRENDS FOR
THIS UPCOMING WINTER SYSTEM. PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENS. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
POOL INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO BE CLOSE TO AN INCH.
BIGGEST TREND BETWEEN THE 12Z AND 00Z RUNS IS THAT THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD TREND.
HEAVY PRECIP SWATH OVER NJ AND EASTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND IMPACT WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. BECAUSE OF THIS
UPSTREAM TREND...HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE ALL OF THE PIONEER VALLEY. ANY PRECIP THAT IS OR WILL FALL
WILL BE SNOW ACROSS THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERKS AS MESONET SITES ARE
ALREADY REPORTING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
GUIDANCE.
ASIDE FROM THE EXPANSION...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF EITHER SNOW...OR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS CENTRAL MASS AND INTO CT. THIS IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST DUAL-POL DATA. HIGHER REFLECTIVITY ECHOES ARE STARTING TO
MOVE INTO WINDHAM COUNTY...WHICH WILL BE EITHER A MIX OR JUST SNOW
AS 925 MB TEMPS ARE ALREADY BELOW 32F PER SPC MESO DATA. ANTICIPATE
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO BE FAIRLY BUSY WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND SURFACE LOW NEARS.
P-TYPE AND CHANGE OVER TIMING...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS COASTAL
LOW MOVES ALONG STALLED COLD FRONT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE PRECIP
SHIED HAS EXPANDED FARTHER WESTWARD THEN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...WHICH
IS THE LATEST TREND IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 06Z NAM.
CHANGE OVER HAS ALREADY STARTED TO OCCUR ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STILL
CONCERNED ABOUT THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE FALLING. ANTICIPATE THE CHANGE
OVER TO MAKE IT TO SOUTHEASTERN MASS INCLUDING BOS AND PVD CLOSER TO
THE 6-8 AM HOUR. THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER AS CAA
WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO REACH THEM. FEEL IT WILL BE CLOSER TO
10AM-NOON. ALTHOUGH SLEET MAY MIX IN DURING THE TRANSITION...BELIEVE
MANY LOCATIONS WILL SWITCH FROM RAIN TO STRAIGHT SNOW.
QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...
HAVE ADJUSTED THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
GENERALLY BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING WILL GET AT
LEAST A SLOPPY 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HILLS WITHIN
TOLLAND...WINDHAM...WORCESTER AND PROVIDENCE COUNTIES. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR QPF. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES. BELIEVE WE HAVE A GOOD TREND GOING
AT THIS TIME. SOME AREAS IN QUESTION WHICH COULD BE UPGRADED WITHIN
THE WARNING IS SOUTHERN BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES. HOWEVER THESE
LOCATIONS MAY BE STUCK IN THE MIX LONGER KEEPING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
LOW. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERK TO AN
ADV AS SNOW IS ALREADY STARTING TO FALL PER WEBCAMS. THE PIONEER AND
CONNECTICUT VALLEY MAY SEE LOWER AMOUNTS AS WELL THANKS TO
SHADOWING. SO EVEN THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS ARE OUT...THERE STILL COULD
BE SOME CHANGES THANKS TO SOME MESOSCALE ISSUES.
IMPACTS...
DUE TO THE FACT THAT SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOW WITH THIS STORM...AND
BANDING WITH 1+ INCH/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. THIS WILL BE EXACERBATED BY A LLJ AROUND
40 KT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME OF IT/S MOMENTUM.
THEREFORE...THE COMBINATION OF WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND HEAVY WET
SNOW MAY INCREASE THE RISK.
THE OTHER PRIMARY IMPACT IS THAT THE CHANGE-OVER AND HEAVIEST
PRECIP/SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF THE AM
COMMUTE...WITH LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MORE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IN RELATION TO PREVIOUS
PROGS SUGGEST A SLOWER END. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE
DRYING THE LOW LEVELS...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW
LEFTOVER MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MA BEFORE THINGS END BY
EARLY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY DROP OFF DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY CAUSE ANY UNTREATED ROADS TO BE SLIPPERY
FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
LONGWAVE SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WEST AND
DIGGING TROUGH IN THE EAST...POINTING TO WARM TREND WEST AND COOLING
EAST. SMALLER SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW A THREE-RING CIRCUS OF
SHORTWAVES EITHER AFFECTING OR WITH POTENTIAL TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH TWO
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
WHERE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES COULD OCCUR.
MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS ALSO AGREE
ON TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS...ONE WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY AND A SECOND CLOSE
TO SHORE TUESDAY. BUT ALL SHOW DIFFERING SCENARIOS FOR HOW THESE
SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BEST CONFIDENCE IN
HANDLING THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEMS IS WITH THE GEFS /ENSEMBLES/
THE DAILIES...
TONIGHT-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN USA. EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND OVER FRESH SNOW COVER
MAY LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT THAN INDICATED BY GUIDANCE. WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...WE BUMPED
GUIDANCE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES. ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS ALOFT
SHIFTING SOUTHWEST...THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD REACH AROUND 950 MB.
TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.
SUNDAY...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSS THE NORTHEAST USA. THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO LOSE THE FRONT
IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS SUGGEST JUST
A FEW CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC
INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER
40S. THE COLDER AIR ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING MIN TEMPS
ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...GENERATES A
SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST USA COAST. THIS COASTAL LOW THEN MOVES
NORTHEAST AND PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF OUR AREA. NORMALLY THIS PATH
WOULD KEEP PCPN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WE
COULD DEVELOP SUFFICIENT MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE TO BRING
CLOUDS AND PCPN MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...BUT WITH POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW
MIX NEAR THE COAST.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ASHORE FROM THE PACIFIC TONIGHT AND CROSSES
TO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DIGS AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE MIDWEST AND LEADS TO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW THEN MOVES UP
THE COAST TUESDAY AND PASSES OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. EACH MODEL
HANDLES THIS COASTAL LOW DIFFERENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
SOLUTION IS LOW. CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES FEET-DRY ON THE PACIFIC COAST.
BEST DYNAMICS UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET
MOVES OFF TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...SO BEST CHANCE
OF PCPN SHOULD BE ON TUESDAY THEN DIMINISH TO SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. PTYPE AGAIN FAVORS SNOW INLAND AND SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE COAST.
UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL FROM THE MIDWEST LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST
USA THROUGH THURSDAY MAINTAINING SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...TIMING MAY BE OFF A BIT.
AREAS OF LIFR/IFR IN HEAVY SNOW AND LOW CIGS CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT 20Z EVERYWHERE...THEN GIVE WAY TO VFR FROM W-E THROUGH 00Z.
STRONG N WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT OVER THE INTERIOR AND 30-40 KT
ALONG THE CAPE/ISLAND.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. ANY UNTREATED AND WET RUNWAYS WILL FREEZE AS
TEMPERATURES DROP RAPIDLY. WIND GUSTS REMAIN N-NW BUT DIMINISH
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TOMORROW...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 KT
OR LESS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...TIMING MAY BE OFF A
BIT.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS....TIMING MAY BE OFF A
BIT.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY... NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND 35-45
KT ON THE EASTERN WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. SEAS BECOME HIGH...MAINLY 8-10 FT ON THE SE OCEAN
WATERS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN/FOG ACROSS THE WATERS
WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO SNOW NEAR THE EASTERN SHORELINES.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
TONIGHT...DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS EARLY AND
POPPING UNDER 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS AS HIGH AS 14 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT TO 5-7 FEET BY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST WATERS DURING THE
NIGHT.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY BELOW 25 KNOTS BUT
GUSTING NEAR 25 KNOTS EAST OF CAPE ANN SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS
DIMINISH SATURDAY BUT THEN RETURN TO NEAR 5 FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN
SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...NORTH WINDS TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST
NEAR 30 KNOTS EACH DAY. DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL BEHAVIOR OF THE
TWO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS PASSING BY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WINDS TO REACH 35-40 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR GALES AT
THIS TIME...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. WINDS TURN BACK TO NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ019>021.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ004>007-009-011>018-026.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ002-003-008-010.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022>024.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ022.
RI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ007.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
RIZ001>006.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
250-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
236-251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1220 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
AFTER A COLD MORNING...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TOWARDS THE 40 DEGREE
MARK TODAY WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. SO
DID A QUICK REFRESH TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST
RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1007 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
HAVE UPDATED THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST TO REMOVE RAIN
FOR ALL OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DURING THIS TIME SHOW THAT PRECIP WILL BE SNOW
DUE TO COMPLETE LACK OF ANY WARM AIR ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPS BEING
NEAR FREEZING OR COLDER. ALSO TRIED TO DO SOME INITIAL FINE TUNING
OF PRECIP TIMING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 800 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO MAINLY FINE TUNE THE T AND TD GRIDS
THROUGH THE MORNING BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
HIGH IS CLEARING THE SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...
ALSO BRINGING AN END TO SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST.
CLEAR SKIES SPREADING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...WILL SUPPORT AN EXTRA DROP OFF IN TEMPS FOR THE VALLEYS
TOWARD DAWN. AS IT STANDS NOW...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION TO THE UPPER
20S ON THE RIDGES AND LOCATIONS STILL UNDER THE CLOUDS ALONG AND
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND
20 DEGREES ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...CURRENTLY.
THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL TAKE ANOTHER BOTTOMING OUT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TODAY. THIS LEAVES EAST KENTUCKY IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING
TODAY AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT...
MAINLY SOUTHERN STREAM...TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WAVE BECOMES MORE ISOLATED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS IT DIVES TO THE GULF COAST AND STARTS TO
PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS SHOW LIMITED
SEPARATION FROM EACH OTHER AT THIS TIME STEP WITH THE GFS THE
WEAKEST AND CANADIAN A CLOSE MATCH TO THE ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE
NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH ONLY A WEAK STREAM OF ENERGY SET TO DRIFT OVER THE
STATE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND WAS USED FOR THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST...
WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR NEAR TERM DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY UNDER THE CONTROL...A TERM USED LOOSELY...OF WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE. IN FACT...GIVEN SOME LIMITED ENERGY ALOFT AND THE WAVE
PASSING TO THE SOUTH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FOR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THOUGH HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST
GRIDS FOR NOW. WHAT WE WILL HAVE IS MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH READINGS REACHING THE UPPER 40S AND
LOW 50S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR
TODAY...GOOD SUNSHINE...AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...WILL ERASE A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S MOST PLACES
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND FOR T/TD/WIND GRIDS TODAY BEFORE
FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH SATURDAY. DID ADJUST THE MIN TEMPS
A TAD THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT FOR MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW...SINGLE DIGITS...IN LINE
WITH MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH THEY MAY BE A
HAIR TOO LOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD START OFF QUIETLY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO END THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY TOPPING AROUND 50 ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE STEADILY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY EVENING...AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BARRELS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT
THE FIRST PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY MIX WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S. THE PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW COLD AIR TO SPILL QUICKLY
INTO THE REGION. THIS CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES CAUSE THE RAIN TO
TRANSITION QUICKLY TO A RAIN SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW BY LATE
MONDAY EVENING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION AND TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND FREEZING. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PERIODS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN RAIN MAY MIX
WITH THE SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THE LAST BIT OF SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO DRY AND
COLD.
THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGHS ON
THAT DAY ARE ONLY FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS ON THAT DAY FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE
COLDEST NIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE MERCURY WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER TEENS BOTH NIGHTS. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE LOWS IN
THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JVM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
258 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016
A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM AN EQUALLY WEAK SFC LOW
CENTER IN NW MN...SWWD INTO EASTERN SD AT 20Z. AHEAD OF THESE
FEATURES...A PARTLY SUNNY SKY COVERED THE FORECAST AREA. A PIECE OF
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT WAS DRIFTING ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. IT HAS PROVIDED SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES IN
THIS AREA. THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW
ONTARIO BY THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHERN MN. NAM/GFS/ECMWF QPF FIELDS ARE WAY OVERDONE...BUT EVEN
SHORT TERM HIRES MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
AFFECT THE ARROWHEAD BEFORE 00Z. HAVE SOME SMALL POPS IN PLACE OVER
THE ARROWHEAD.
THE UPPER TROF MOVES INTO EASTERN WI BY 06Z AS THE SFC LOW REACHES
NE LAKE SUPERIOR AND A SFC TROF REACHES NW WI. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AS WELL AS IN NORTH
CENTRAL WI. SOME FLURRIES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN NW WI AND
HAVE A MENTION. THE SFC TROF EXITS NW WI BY 12Z SATURDAY AS WELL AS
THE UPPER TROF. LINGERED SOME SMALL POPS IN NORTH CENTRAL WI AS
THESE FEATURES PASS BY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM.
ON SATURDAY...THE NAM IS WAY TOO FAST WITH THE DEVELOPMENT/SPREADING
OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO
REACH INTO NE MN BY 18Z. PREFER THE GFS20/ECMWF WHICH KEEP THE AREA
FREE OF SNOW BEFORE 18Z. THIS IS DUE TO A FAIRLY DRY COLUMN. BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A DIGGING UPPER TROF REACHES THE DAKOTAS. THIS
WILL COMBINE WITH THE WARM FRONT TO BRING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT
SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF
THE IRON RANGE TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. MAINTAINED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST POPS/WEATHER AS A RESULT. LITTLE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE...AND WILL BE WRUNG OUT. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016
A CANADIAN CLIPPER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING ITS
TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PCPN...SO INCREASED PCPN CHANCES. THE
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SO THE INITIAL SNOW WILL BE LIMITED NORTH AND EAST OF
THE WARM FRONT...AFFECTING ONLY THE ARROWHEAD. THE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY...AND SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THE GUNFLINT TRAIL AND GRAND PORTAGE AREA
COULD GET 1 TO 2 INCHES SATURDAY EVENING...AND THEN THE WHOLE
NORTHLAND SHOULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
THE PASSING OF THE LOW. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW SUNDAY...AND WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS AND FALLING SNOW
WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO PERIODS OF LOW VISIBILITY...PARTICULARLY
IN MORE OPEN AREAS.
ARCTIC AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTHLAND MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING CLIPPER. THERE COULD BE LINGERING SNOW FLURRIES...AND THE
COLD NW FLOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
DOWNWIND OVER NW WISCONSIN.
CLEARER SKIES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHEN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILD INTO THE REGION. THE
CONTINUED NORTHERLY ARCTIC FLOW COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OVER NW WISCONSIN WELL THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY IN
THE LOWER 30S...BUT THERE WILL BE A 15 TO 20 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP
INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER. THE TEMPERATURES DROP A
LITTLE MORE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE RECOVERY
THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
INDICATING ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST COMING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016
SUBTLE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TODAY...FROM
WEST TO EAST...AND LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VERY
LIGHT SNOW. THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE CONCERNING CEILINGS THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SOME MODELS...SUCH AS THE HRRR AND
NAM MOS...ARE INDICATE IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND GFS MOS CLEARS THE LOW CEILINGS OUT OF THE
AREA...WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. SINCE THE GFS SEEMS
TO BE DOING BETTER WITH THE LATEST TRENDS...MY BETS ARE WITH THE
CLEARER GFS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 16 30 26 31 / 10 10 20 60
INL 12 28 25 31 / 10 30 50 70
BRD 14 34 29 33 / 0 10 10 60
HYR 16 32 26 35 / 10 10 10 60
ASX 19 32 27 35 / 10 10 20 50
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1155 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016
UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 910 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR/RAP/DLH WRF ALL POINT TO MINIMAL SNOW
TODAY. BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS/SATELLITE HAVE LOWERED
POPS CONSIDERABLY THIS MORNING. DID PLACE SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING. CLOUDS
ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF THINNING/HOLES OPENING UP WHICH WOULD AFFECT
POPS/QPF/WEATHER. MADE SOME OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TODAY IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES
EAST TODAY INTO MINNESOTA. WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA AND THE SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO PERHAPS SOME
ISOLATED ONE INCH AMOUNTS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE TWENTIES.
LIGHT SNOW WILL BE MOST LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
THIS EVENING...THEN IT WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE FORCING MOVES
EAST. LOWS WILL DROP TO 10 TO 18 DEGREES.
A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA ON SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF MAINLY FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO 0C TO +1C OVER THE BRAINERD
LAKES REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION
IN PLACE SO THERE WILL NOT BE VERY MUCH MIXING. DESPITE THE LIMITING
MIXING...WE DO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO 30 TO 34 OVER THE
BRAINERD LAKES REGION...BUT ONLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S NORTHEAST
OF THE WARM FRONT IN THE ARROWHEAD.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING AT MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
FAVORS FREQUENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORMS ON THE HORIZON. TEMPERATURES MILD SUNDAY
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THEN
COLDER THROUGH THE WEEK AS ARCTIC AIR JUST TO THE NORTH ATTEMPTS TO
BREAK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING NOT AS
COLD FOR MID-WEEK AS PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD ANTICIPATED...BUT THE
ARCTIC AIR FINALLY BREAKS THROUGH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE IN
THE WEEK. THIS IS NOT TO SAY TEMPS WILL BE WARM BY ANY MEANS...STILL
EXPECTING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MID WEEK AND THEN COLDER LATE
WEEK...BUT JUST NOT AS COLD AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE ARE
STILL VARIOUS DIFFERENCES INTO HOW THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT THESE DIFFERENCES WILL NOT MAKE MUCH OF A
DIFFERENCE WHEN IT COMES TO SENSIBLE WEATHER. AHEAD OF THE LOW A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...COMING TO A STOP OVER THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
WHICH WILL RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THIS REGION AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LOW. COMBINED WITH EASTERLY WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AND THIS COULD RESULT IN LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...THOUGH LAKE/AIR TEMP DIFFERENCE
WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE. OVERNIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL
BE AROUND ONE TO THREE INCHES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO
THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD.
SUNDAY WILL BE WARM WITH SOME LOCATIONS WELL INTO THE MID
30S...MAINLY IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE A POSSIBLE DRY SLOT OVER
THE REGION MAY DELAY PRECIP UNTIL THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME
PRECIP MAY BEGIN OR CHANGE OVER TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SUCH AS IN
THE SAINT CROIX RIVER VALLEY INTO THE HAYWARD LAKES REGION...BUT
THINK THAT ONCE THE BETTER LARGE-SCALE LIFT ARRIVES PRECIP QUICKLY
CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW. MOST SNOWFALL LOOKS TO FALL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD TOTALS IN THE ONE TO
THREE INCH RANGE...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO
POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS WINDS TURN NORTHEASTERLY WITH THE
PASSING OF THE SFC LOW FROM NW MN TO EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
LOW WITH LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW. WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE FRESH SNOW. SNOW ENDS WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.
THROUGH THE MID WEEK COLD AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH RESULTING IN
POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST TIMES OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD WITH LOWS FALLING TO 10 BELOW ZERO TO NEAR ZERO.
/NOTE THAT THIS FORECAST PERIOD GOES THROUGH THURSDAY AND EVEN
COLDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT./ ANOTHER WEAK
CLIPPER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH FOR ANY PARTICULAR TIME...WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATING
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHT IN ANY CASE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016
SUBTLE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TODAY...FROM
WEST TO EAST...AND LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VERY
LIGHT SNOW. THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE CONCERNING CEILINGS THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SOME MODELS...SUCH AS THE HRRR AND
NAM MOS...ARE INDICATE IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND GFS MOS CLEARS THE LOW CEILINGS OUT OF THE
AREA...WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. SINCE THE GFS SEEMS
TO BE DOING BETTER WITH THE LATEST TRENDS...MY BETS ARE WITH THE
CLEARER GFS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 25 15 29 21 / 50 60 10 40
INL 24 10 26 21 / 20 20 30 50
BRD 26 12 33 24 / 20 20 10 30
HYR 24 17 31 22 / 50 60 10 30
ASX 27 19 31 23 / 50 60 10 30
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
325 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 325 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2016
A pair of vort maxes will approach the region tonight, spreading
extensive mid/high cloudiness over the area. The northern vort max
is the weaker of the pair and eventually phases with the southern
disturbance, although there is some model disagreement regarding how
quickly this occurs. Latest runs of the RAP point to a quicker
phasing than shown by the local WRF or NAM, and the quicker timing
looks reasonable based on recent satellite imagery and PV analyses.
Quicker phasing means that the northern disturbance won`t produce
much lift over the CWA and therefore there is much less chance of
flurries or sprinkles given the already limited moisture. Overnight
lows should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday due to extensive
cloud cover and weak WAA at low levels behind a retreating surface
high pressure center.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM: (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 325 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2016
An upper level TROF will swing thru our region dry on Saturday,
with forcing not strong enough and a column not moist enough, as the
main storm center passes well to our south, and should produce
nothing more than clouds that will decrease as the day wears on.
Otherwise, SW winds left in its wake will result in an above average
temp day, with maxes from the mid 40s to mid 50s favored, or at or
above the higher MAV MOS.
A more direct hit from a decently strong upper level disturbance
will occur late Sunday and into Sunday night, but will still be
fighting a largely dry column. Have added low PoPs for most of our
region for light rain for Sunday afternoon, and areas south and east
of STL metro heading into Sunday evening.
This initial disturbance Sunday will also correspond to the leading
edge of a brief shot of Arctic air that will begin later Sunday
night and continue into Monday night, resulting in scattered snow
showers over much of the region. Accums will be hard to nail down
this far out and due to the nature of the pcpn, but could see spotty
accums up to an inch from this event. Needless to say, the leading
edge of the Arctic airmass will also be accompanied by strong gusty
northwest winds, clouds, and stagnant daytime temps on Monday as CAA
remains strong thru the day.
Models are less clear, but it appears a second clipper-like system
may drop down for the Tuesday night or Wednesday timeframe, but the
signal is not enough, especially for this type of system, to place
mentionable PoPs in the forecast just yet.
Otherwise, NW upper flow continues thru all of next week and will
leave the door open for additional cold air intrusions, one of which
is slated to drop down Thursday or Friday.
Overall a period of mainly below average temps separated briefly by
periods of above average temps, with little in the way of
precipitation.
TES
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1108 AM CST Fri Feb 5 2016
VFR through the period with increasing mid/high clouds. Initially
lgt/var winds will become southwesterly on Saturday morning due
to the approach and passage of a surface trough after 06/12z.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1218 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 942 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016
12z NAM initialized a stronger vorticity max over south central NE
than shown in earlier progs. RAP is a bit weaker. Both models track
the feature east this morning/afternoon. Area of light snow tied to
this feature will be moving into a rather dry airmass as noted by the
dirt-dry sub-cloud region on the 12z TOP raob. Latest short-range
models are more bullish in keeping this area of snow intact, albeit
diminishing it as it moves into far northwest MO. NAM also showing
moderate moist isentropic ascent on the 280-285K surfaces. Will add
chance PoPs to far northwest MO for this afternoon with slight
chances spreading across the northern two tier of counties. Will
monitor radar trends and if the snow holds together better than
anticipated will look to raise PoPs.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016
Very little change to the going forecast philosophy, with overall
quiet weather on the horizon. Two shortwave troughs will be featured
over the next few days, but with limited moisture, little in the way
of sensible weather will be noted for the area. Mid/high clouds will
steadily increase during the day with readings warming into the
middle 30s to middle 40s. The first disturbance arrives overnight
and besides the increase in cloud cover, a few sprinkles cannot be
completely ruled out. Downglide quickly clears out cloud cover as
system departs on Saturday, with a continued mild weekend on tap for
the weekend. The second disturbance arrives Sunday/Monday, with
slightly more notable weather. A strengthening pressure gradient
will allow for gusty northwesterly winds on Sunday. Enough dynamics
and low-level moisture may allow for light precipitation in the
form of snow over the eastern two-thirds of the CWA. Much colder air
will advect into the area as the pattern becomes much more amplified
heading into early next week before readings gradually moderate to
near normal levels by the middle of the work week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016
Southern edge of area of snow over southeast NE/western IA continues
to erode as it moves east. Think this trend will continue as the band
moves across far northwest and north central MO this afternoon.
Little if any snow accumulation expected. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will continue as a weak wind shift line passes across western MO late
this evening. Could see some sprinkles/flurries near this boundary
but again no accumulations expected.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
330 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016
THERE ARE SEVERAL SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS...LIGHT SNOW ENDING
THIS EVENING...POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT AND THEN STRONG WINDS
WITH LIGHT SNOW/BLOWING SNOW SUNDAY/MONDAY.
AMPLIFIED MID TROPOSPHERIC PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS.
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NOW WILL PUSH EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND SNOW WILL END. RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BUILD EAST
INTO THE AREA BUT WEAKEN THROUGH SATURDAY. BY LATE SATURDAY...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA BACK INTO
WYOMING. THE PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AGAIN SUNDAY AS A RIDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND THAT SHORTWAVE
INTENSIFIES AND FORMS A CLOSED LOW OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.
TONIGHT...WARM FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE AREA BUT WINDS WILL DROP OFF. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...THERE
MAY BE SOME FOG. EXPERIMENTAL HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN HINTING AT DENSE
FOG FORMATION FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS...STARTING NORTH OF
THE PLATTE RIVER PRIOR TO 06Z. THAT MODEL THEN EXPANDS THE FOG AND
KEEPS IT INTO MID MORNING SATURDAY. THIS ALL DEPENDS ON CLOUD COVER.
THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO BRING CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME AT LEAST SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND DECOUPLING OF WINDS OVER DEEPER SNOW COVER. SURFACE
WINDS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST ARE NOT ALL THAT FAVORABLE FOR FOG
LOCALLY...BUT AIRMASS BEHIND THIS TROUGH/WIND SHIFT IS FAIRLY
MOIST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE VERY TRICKY...WITH SNOW
AND FOG POTENTIAL. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS.
SATURDAY...CLOUDS AND FOG MAY LINGER IN THE MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN IOWA AND EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT AND SHOULD GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IF CLOUDS DECREASE AS EXPECTED AND WE CAN GET
SOME SUNSHINE...HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SHOULD BE REALIZED.
AREAS WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA SHOULD REACH INTO
THE MID 40S.
LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE (POSSIBLY INTO WIND ADVISORY CATEGORY) AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LAG A BIT. WILL KEEP SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW. BEST CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW WILL STAY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT INCLUDED
SOME LOW POPS IN OUR AREA...WITH SOME MOISTURE WRAPPING INTO THE
AREA. LAPSE RATES STEEPEN BELOW 750 IN GFS AND NAM FCST SOUNDINGS
SO THE IDEA OF SNOW SHOWERS STILL SEEMS PRUDENT. SNOW CHANCES WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW COULD BECOME PROBLEMATIC
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL MONITOR THIS FOR LATER FORECASTS AND MAY
NEED TO HIT HARDER WITH SOME TYPE OF ADVISORY LATER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016
LITTLE OR NO PCPN IS EXPECTED IN THIS PERIOD...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A BIT FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
STRONG 500 MB RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA
TUESDAY AND OUR AREA WILL BE IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW. THAT RIDGE
SHOULD DEAMPLIFY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN BECOMING
MORE ZONAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016
VARIABLE CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS A
BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS AREA. A SECONDARY WAVE WILL
BRING ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH SOME CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG SETTING UP OVERNIGHT.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...KERN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1104 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24
HRS. EXCEPTIONS INCLUDE LOCALIZED AREAS ACROSS THE NE CORNER OF
THE STATE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO SNOWFALL. THE OTHER
BEING ACROSS NW AREAS LATE TONIGHT. BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AN AREA OF LOW CIGS DEVELOPED TO THE EAST OF FMN THIS
MORNING. THERE IS SOME INDICATION ANOTHER AREA OF LOW CIGS WOULD
DEVELOP AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT TOWARDS FMN LATE TONIGHT. WILL
MONITOR THAT TREND CLOSELY. USED VCFG IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KT AT TCC EARLY/MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
LOWERING.
50
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...315 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
TODAY...BRINGING A REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR...GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AND SOME MEAGER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND WILL THEN DOMINATE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND STEERS STORMS AWAY FROM NEW
MEXICO THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
SEASONAL VALUES OR ABOVE BY NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER DAY...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND EAST...BUT OVERALL NOT ANTICIPATING SPEEDS
WILL REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE THERE COULD BE SOME
MOSTLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND
ALONG THE FAR NORTHEAST...SUCH AS RATON PASS/SIERRA GRANDE WHERE
THEY COULD SEE POSSIBLY AN INCH OR TWO...BUT NOT THINKING IT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ANY WINTER TYPE HIGHLIGHTS. HRRR DOES SUGGEST
SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN...AS WELL AS THE ECMWF WHICH PAINTS ISOLATED MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS IN THE EAST CENTRAL...BOTH WHERE CURRENT GRIDS HAVE LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT POPS TODAY. SO LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION TRENDING TOWARDS GREATER AREAL COVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT PLUMMET AGAIN FOR THE NORTHERN MTS...BUT
GUIDANCE DOESN/T INDICATE IT WILL BE QUITE AS COLD AS THURSDAY
MORNING LOWS WERE. ANOTHER DRY WAVE SENDS A FRONT INTO NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY BUT COOLING EFFECTS MORE LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS.
THEREAFTER...DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND WILL DOMINATE NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES FINALLY REBOUND TO NORMAL OR ABOVE BY TUESDAY
OVERALL. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT. LATE NEXT WEEK...THE GFS ALLOWS
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE DRAWN INTO NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH STRETCHED THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THE ECMWF DEPICTS MORE OF
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM...DRIER AND COOLER.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ONE QUICK-MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWUNG THROUGH NORTHERN NM EARLIER
LAST EVENING...AND A SECOND ONE IS QUICKLY FOLLOWING ON ITS HEELS
AND WILL CROSS OVER NORTHEAST NM BY LATE MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS
ALSO DROPPING SOUTH INTO NM...AND THIS WILL BRING A TEMPORARY
CESSATION TO THE WARMING TREND. SOME LOWER-BASED CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTH
CENTRAL NM...GRADUALLY EXTENDING INTO NORTHEASTERN NM BY MID DAY.
ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY A
COUPLE OF INCHES FORESEEN NEAR THE RATON RIDGE/PASS. AS THE COLD
FRONT SPILLS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA...SOME WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
NM. IT WILL BE HERE WHERE VENTILATION RATES WILL BE BOOSTED...BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT SMOKE DISPERSION RATES TO REMAIN IN THE POOR
CATEGORY TODAY.
AS THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS MORE WEST NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY...IT WILL
RELAX AND BECOME MORE STABLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO RISING PRESSURE
HEIGHTS AND CONSEQUENTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH SATURDAYS HIGHS
RISING 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE TODAYS. THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NM WILL
OBSERVE THE LARGEST GAINS WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS. STIFF
SURFACE/20FT BREEZES WILL STILL TAKE SHAPE IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COME LOWER HUMIDITY. PATCHES OF CENTRAL NM
AND MOST OF THE EASTERN ZONES WILL OBSERVE MINIMUM HUMIDITY OF 10-20
PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE AREA OF STRONGER WINDS IN THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE JUXTAPOSED OVER ANY CRITICAL
RH AREAS AT THIS TIME. POOR VENTILATION IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.
THEN THE FLOW RETURNS TO A MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL COMPONENT FROM THE
NORTHWEST HOSTING YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT. THIS PERTURBATION
SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF NM EARLY SUNDAY...BUT STILL THE
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF NM. ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO SLIP INTO EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY
SUNDAY...BUT THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOES NOT APPEAR TO DISRUPT THE
FORECAST AREA FROM REACHING NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY. AFTER SUNDAY...THE THEME FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE A
DRY...TRANQUIL...AND WARMER PATTERN. VENTILATION RATES WILL
SUFFER...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
52
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
254 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS... IN THE WAKE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTING THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SURFACE LOW WILL PASS BY THE CAROLINA COAST
ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM FRIDAY...
THE EARLY MORNING RAIN/SNOW MIX HAS FIZZLED AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN
FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...WHICH IS NOW SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND. LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND 4000K FT IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND SOME VERY SHALLOW INSTABILITY...PER RAP SOUNDINGS...COULD
STILL RESULT IN A FEW RAIN DROPS EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR THROUGH
NOON. HOWEVER...WITH THE MOISTURE STEADILY ERODING AND STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT...HAVE REMOVED REMAIN POPS. COLD
ADVECTION AT 850MB IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO BETWEEN 925MB AND 850NMB SUPPORTS HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S...A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. -SMITH
WINDS DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR
SKIES... AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST SHIFTS
OVERHEAD. LOWS 23-29... COLDEST IN THE RURAL PIEDMONT AND WRN
SANDHILLS. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...
THE WEEKEND WILL START OUT QUIET... ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON
THE RISE... WITH PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE LATE SAT NIGHT IN THE
FAR SE. INITIALLY DRY AND STABLE AIR OVER CENTRAL NC WILL LEAD TO
CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE TO START SAT. THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SW
TO NE ACROSS NC EARLY SAT WILL NARROW FURTHER AND BE OVERTAKEN BY
LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE BAHAMAS ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE... IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE APPROACH OF A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW DIVING DOWN THROUGH ERN CO/NM. AS THIS
AMPLIFYING WAVE CROSSES THE GULF STATES/NRN GULF AND SOUTHEAST
SAT/SAT NIGHT... THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN QUICKLY AND
TRACK TO THE NE... STAYING FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO BE OF LITTLE
CONSEQUENCE FOR CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER... A FEW MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ATLANTIC MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW TO
SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP INTO OUR FAR SE CWA OVERNIGHT. THE LOW LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT DRY BELOW 5 000 FT... WHICH WOULD
MAKE ANY PRECIP VERY LIGHT WITH ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS. PARTIAL
THICKNESSES SUPPORT THIS PRECIP BEING MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW... AND THIS
IS ALSO WHAT IS INDICATED BY THE TOP-DOWN METHODOLOGY... AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD SATURATION UP TO AND ABOVE -20C WITH A COLD
COLUMN. WILL BRING IN SMALL POPS IN OUR SOUTHEAST SAT NIGHT BUT WITH
MINIMAL QPF AND NO NOTABLE IMPACT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SAT
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH SOME RECOVERY IN THICKNESSES. LOWS
FROM THE UPPER 20S NW TO LOWER 30S SE. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ONSHORE BRITISH COLUMBIA TONIGHT WILL RESULT
IN RAPID AMPLIFICATION OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US SUN
NIGHT/MONDAY AS IT DIGS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE
OH VALLEY AS AN UPPER LOW...ON THE HEELS OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE RESULTING
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH MID-WEEK...OR UNTIL UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
ESTABLISHED THU/FRI. LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN ASSOC/W
POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW MONDAY AFT/EVE. GIVEN SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND THE PRESENCE OF LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...NO PTYPE CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED. EXPECT BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUE/WED IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG/PERSISTENT
COLD ADVECTION AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS. FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT...I.E.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS NEAR/OVER THE REGION AND WESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT
THE LOW/MID LEVELS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD/SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION TUE AFTERNOON GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES/VERY COLD TEMPS
ALOFT AND OCCASIONAL DPVA ASSOC/W SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH /UPPER LOW/ OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. WHETHER OR
NOT CONVECTION DEVELOPS WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF
DPVA...AND EVEN IF CONVECTION WERE TO DEVELOP...A VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER WOULD HAVE TO BE OVERCOME...THUS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. IF
CONVECTION WERE TO DEVELOP...A SHALLOW ABOVE FREEZING LAYER IN
THE LOWEST 500-1000 FT AGL WOULD SUGGEST RAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A RATE-DRIVEN CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS WOULD BE
PRESENT. -VINCENT
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM FRIDAY...
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST INTO THE 20-25KT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE PREVAILING. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME NEARLY CALM. VFR
WILL CONTINUE.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON
SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW PASSING BY THE CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY MAY
BRING LIGHT PRECIP AND A PERIOD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FROM KFAY TO
KRWI. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS AND PATCHY PRECIP TO ALL SITES MON AFTERNOON INTO
TUE.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/SMITH
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1245 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS... IN THE WAKE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTING THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SURFACE LOW WILL PASS BY THE CAROLINA COAST
ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM FRIDAY...
THE EARLY MORNING RAIN/SNOW MIX HAS FIZZLED AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN
FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...WHICH IS NOW SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND. LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND 4000K FT IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND SOME VERY SHALLOW INSTABILITY...PER RAP SOUNDINGS...COULD
STILL RESULT IN A FEW RAIN DROPS EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR THROUGH
NOON. HOWEVER...WITH THE MOISTURE STEADILY ERODING AND STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT...HAVE REMOVED REMAIN POPS. COLD
ADVECTION AT 850MB IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO BETWEEN 925MB AND 850NMB SUPPORTS HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S...A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. -SMITH
WINDS DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR
SKIES... AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST SHIFTS
OVERHEAD. LOWS 23-29... COLDEST IN THE RURAL PIEDMONT AND WRN
SANDHILLS. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...
THE WEEKEND WILL START OUT QUIET... ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON
THE RISE... WITH PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE LATE SAT NIGHT IN THE
FAR SE. INITIALLY DRY AND STABLE AIR OVER CENTRAL NC WILL LEAD TO
CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE TO START SAT. THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SW
TO NE ACROSS NC EARLY SAT WILL NARROW FURTHER AND BE OVERTAKEN BY
LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE BAHAMAS ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE... IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE APPROACH OF A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW DIVING DOWN THROUGH ERN CO/NM. AS THIS
AMPLIFYING WAVE CROSSES THE GULF STATES/NRN GULF AND SOUTHEAST
SAT/SAT NIGHT... THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN QUICKLY AND
TRACK TO THE NE... STAYING FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO BE OF LITTLE
CONSEQUENCE FOR CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER... A FEW MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ATLANTIC MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW TO
SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP INTO OUR FAR SE CWA OVERNIGHT. THE LOW LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT DRY BELOW 5 000 FT... WHICH WOULD
MAKE ANY PRECIP VERY LIGHT WITH ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS. PARTIAL
THICKNESSES SUPPORT THIS PRECIP BEING MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW... AND THIS
IS ALSO WHAT IS INDICATED BY THE TOP-DOWN METHODOLOGY... AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD SATURATION UP TO AND ABOVE -20C WITH A COLD
COLUMN. WILL BRING IN SMALL POPS IN OUR SOUTHEAST SAT NIGHT BUT WITH
MINIMAL QPF AND NO NOTABLE IMPACT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SAT
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH SOME RECOVERY IN THICKNESSES. LOWS
FROM THE UPPER 20S NW TO LOWER 30S SE. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...
SUNDAYS PROMINENT WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS AND THE SURFACE LOW OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST. WHILE MUCH OF THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OFF OF THE
COAST...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TO CREEP INTO THE
EASTERN THIRD OF OUR CWA ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE STORM. AT THIS
TIME MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN WITH
POTENTIALLY SOME WET SNOW MIXED IN PER NOMOGRAM THICKNESSES. DRY LOW
LEVELS MAY KEEP SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND
FOR A WHILE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD EXIT TO THE
EAST BY SUNDAY EVENING AT THE LATEST. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM AT THIS TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY SHIFT
IN THE GUIDANCE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 50 DEGREES WITH AN
UNUSUAL TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION OF WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST
AND COLDEST IN THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO GREATER CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE STORM. LOWS MONDAY
MORNING NEAR FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS.
MONDAY WILL BEGIN WITH A LULL BETWEEN THE EXITING COASTAL SYSTEM AND
THE NEXT LARGE UNORGANIZED SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL
USHER IN ARCTIC AIR FROM CANADA. TIMING OF THE WEAK FRONT THAT WILL
SIGNAL THE ARRIVAL OF THIS COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY
SO TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH WILL STILL MAKE IT TO THE LOW 50S WITH
MID 40S IN THE TRIAD. AS THIS IS A CONTINENTAL AIRMASS...THERE IS
NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM AT ALL AND PW VALUES REMAIN BELOW
A HALF OF AN INCH. THAT BEING SAID...THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...BEGINNING MOST LIKELY AFTER 15Z ON
MONDAY AS RAIN. ANYTHING THAT FALLS SHOULD REMAIN RAIN UNTIL LATER
IN THE EVENING WHEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO ALL SNOW
AFTER 3Z TUESDAY AS NOMOGRAM THICKNESSES TANK. BY THIS TIME
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA AND ANY SNOW
SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE AT THIS TIME. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S NW TO LOW 30S SE.
SOME INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY BUT OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE AS QPF VALUES REMAIN VERY LOW.
EVENTUALLY THE VERY DRY AIR WILL TAKE OVER AND THE COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL BECOME THE MAIN STORY AS HIGHS TUESDAY ONLY MAKE THE LOW TO MID
40S AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT DIVE INTO THE MID 20S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
THE COLDEST DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES AND
WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS. DESPITE THE
COLD...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ON THURSDAY THE UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO FINALLY LIFT OUT AND TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM FRIDAY...
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST INTO THE 20-25KT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE PREVAILING. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME NEARLY CALM. VFR
WILL CONTINUE.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON
SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW PASSING BY THE CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY MAY
BRING LIGHT PRECIP AND A PERIOD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FROM KFAY TO
KRWI. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS AND PATCHY PRECIP TO ALL SITES MON AFTERNOON INTO
TUE.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/SMITH
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
300 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN ONTARIO.
THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC SATURDAY. SUNDAY A CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. MONDAY THE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS MICHIGAN AND INTO OHIO.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS ACROSS MICHIGAN AND INTO
NORTHERN INDIANA IN AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A
WEAK TROUGH. THE NAM ALSO SHOWS A SHORT WAVE IN THE GENERAL AREA
AS WELL. FOLLOWING 850MB MOISTURE WHICH IS A GOOD PROXY SO
FAR...THIS MOISTURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WILL USE THE NAM12 850MB RH AS A STARTING TEMPLATE FOR SKY COVER
GRIDS TONIGHT. THE HRRR BRINGS IN SOME PATCHY FLURRIES BUT FOR
NOW WILL LEAVE DRY. WILL GO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF MAV TEMP
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... SATURDAY MORNING
THE WEAK TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST IN THE MORNING AS ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER TROUGH DROP TOWARD THE AREA. ALSO A SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS
SERN CANADA NORTH OF THE REGION. BEST MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF
THE AREA CLOSER TO THIS SYSTEM SO AM EXPECTING AT LEAST PARTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 40. SATURDAY NIGHT
WE SHOULD SEE WEAK WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COLD
FRONT FROM THE CANADIAN LOW STALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES.
SUNDAY ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN FROM
SCNTRL CANADA. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY
AND SHOULD BRING RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST TO BEGIN WITH BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT
WILL MOVE CHANCE POPS EAST AND INCREASE TO LIKELY WEST. HIGHS
ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINTER WILL BE RETURNING FOR NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR AREA
WIDE SNOW SHOWERS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES. CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MONDAY MAY BE
MARGINAL...AND WE MAY SEE A RA/SN MIX. IT WILL GET COLD ENOUGH BY
MONDAY NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE
CONFINED MORE TO THE SNOWBELT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW REORGANIZES
ITSELF AROUND JAMES BAY. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WE START TO SEE
SOME SPREAD IN THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
THE GFS THE COLDEST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAST BIT OF MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA WILL LIFT TO VFR
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BEYOND THAT EXPECTING ALL TAF SITES TO BE
VFR THROUGH 18Z SAT. THERE WILL BE A WEAK TROUGH THAT CROSSES THE
AREA TONIGHT WITH A MID CEILING BETWEEN BKN035 AND BKN050. TOL
WOULD LIKELY HAVE THE ONLY REAL CHANCE AT AN MVFR CEILING FOR A
TIME TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE UNDER 12 KNOTS AND GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE ON
SATURDAY TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AS A CLIPPER BRUSHES THE GREAT LAKES.
BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN TO DECREASE IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM WESTERN SUPERIOR. THIS LOW WILL STALL AND REMAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO BE STRONG THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES. DURING THIS PERIOD 20 TO 25 KNOTS LOOK COMMON.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN