Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 02/05/16


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1024 AM PST WED FEB 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS...LIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY IN THE EVENING. DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP REGION-WIDE TOMORROW WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW RECORD HIGHS MAY EVEN BE SET NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:38 AM PST WEDNESDAY...COOL TEMPERATURES PERSIST OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH MOST LOCATIONS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. ONLY A FEW/SCT PASSING HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM FORECAST TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LATEST SHORT-TERM FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTH BAY UNTIL MAINLY AFTER 4 PM PST AND NOT UNTIL AFTER 7 PM FOR THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. IN ADDITION, MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF SAN FRANCISCO WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE A TRACE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION UP TO ONE- HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE BASED ON THE LATEST ANALYSIS. && .PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PST WEDNESDAY...CHILLY START TO THE DAY TODAY THANKS TO FAIRLY LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN MANY SPOTS. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. SO FAR FOR THE SHIFT KMUX RADAR HAS REMAINED IN CLEAR AIR MODE THANKS TO NO PRECIP ECHOES BEING PICKED UP. THAT WILL CHANGE LATER TODAY AS THE SECOND AND FINAL WEAK SYSTEM FOR THE WEEK MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR ALONG WITH THE NAM ARE BOTH IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT RAIN WILL RETURN BACK TO THE NORTH BAY BY LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN DOWN TO SF BAY REGION BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE GREATEST OVER THE NORTH BAY WHERE .2" TO .4" CAN BE EXPECTED. FOR SF BAY REGION MOST SPOTS WILL LIKELY SEE LESS THAN 1/10" WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN IN THE MONTEREY BAY AREA. DID LOOK AT VARIOUS CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS AND FEEL THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT OCCUR IN THE CWA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S IN ALMOST ALL SPOTS. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD TO THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY HELPING TO PUSH THE STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES -- IN SOME CASES 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL -- WITH WIDESPREAD MID 60S TO MID 70S EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN MOST SPOTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WE COULD EVEN SEE A FEW RECORD HIGHS NEXT WEEK OR EVEN AN ISOLATED 80 DEGREE HIGH. (AS AN EXAMPLE, SAN JOSE IS FORECAST TO HIT 72 ON SUNDAY WHICH IS JUST SHORT OF THE CURRENT RECORD OF 76 SET BACK IN 1963). JUST HOW STRONG WILL THE RIDGE BE? IF THE ECMWF FORECAST OF 500 MB HEIGHTS AT OAKLAND OF 586-587DM VERIFIES, IT WILL SET THE RECORD FOR THE DAY FOR 500 MB HEIGHTS AND POTENTIALLY TIE THE MONTHLY RECORD. CURRENTLY DO NOT SEE A SETUP FOR TULE FOG MOVING INTO OUR REGION, SO CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR IDEAL FOR ALL OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. IT WILL FEEL LIKE SPRING IN FEBRUARY! LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE FAVORS DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH. && .AVIATION...AS OF 10:23 AM PST WEDNESDAY... PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONT WILL BRING AREAS OF MVFR AND LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON... SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE BAY AREA THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR IN THE MONTEREY BAY AREA. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. CURRENTLY... HIGH CLOUDS PRECEDING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE MOVING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AOA 6-8K FT AGL. SATELLITE PRODUCTS SHOWING THIN LAYER OF TULE FOG BANKED ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY BUT OFFSHORE/EAST WINDS ARE TOO LIGHT TO ADVECT THIS INTO THE EAST BAY. VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THIS MORNING WITH INTERMITTENT MVFR AND LIGHT RAIN POSBL AROUND 00Z...THEN MVFR AND A FEW POST FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FROM AROUND 06Z THROUGH 16Z WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS. CONFIDENCE ON POTENTIAL WIND PROBLEMS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY ARE LOW...BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY AS FRONT APPROACHES. CONDITIONS WILL THEN BECOME VFR THURSDAY MORNING. SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR... LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS. && .MARINE...AS OF 09:50 AM PST WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE PASSING FRONT WILL BRING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT THE MOUTH OF COASTAL GAPS SUCH AS THE GOLDEN GATE...MONTEREY BAY...AND WEST OF POINT REYES. LARGE...LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THEN SWELL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA AND ITS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR FROM 3 PM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS AVIATION: MM/DW MARINE: MM VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
945 AM PST WED FEB 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS...LIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY IN THE EVENING. DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP REGION-WIDE TOMORROW WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW RECORD HIGHS MAY EVEN BE SET NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:38 AM PST WEDNESDAY...COOL TEMPERATURES PERSIST OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH MOST LOCATIONS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. ONLY A FEW/SCT PASSING HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM FORECAST TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LATEST SHORT-TERM FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTH BAY UNTIL MAINLY AFTER 4 PM PST AND NOT UNTIL AFTER 7 PM FOR THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. IN ADDITION, MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF SAN FRANCISCO WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE A TRACE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION UP TO ONE- HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE BASED ON THE LATEST ANALYSIS. && .PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PST WEDNESDAY...CHILLY START TO THE DAY TODAY THANKS TO FAIRLY LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN MANY SPOTS. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. SO FAR FOR THE SHIFT KMUX RADAR HAS REMAINED IN CLEAR AIR MODE THANKS TO NO PRECIP ECHOES BEING PICKED UP. THAT WILL CHANGE LATER TODAY AS THE SECOND AND FINAL WEAK SYSTEM FOR THE WEEK MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR ALONG WITH THE NAM ARE BOTH IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT RAIN WILL RETURN BACK TO THE NORTH BAY BY LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN DOWN TO SF BAY REGION BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE GREATEST OVER THE NORTH BAY WHERE .2" TO .4" CAN BE EXPECTED. FOR SF BAY REGION MOST SPOTS WILL LIKELY SEE LESS THAN 1/10" WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN IN THE MONTEREY BAY AREA. DID LOOK AT VARIOUS CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS AND FEEL THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT OCCUR IN THE CWA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S IN ALMOST ALL SPOTS. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD TO THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY HELPING TO PUSH THE STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES -- IN SOME CASES 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL -- WITH WIDESPREAD MID 60S TO MID 70S EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN MOST SPOTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WE COULD EVEN SEE A FEW RECORD HIGHS NEXT WEEK OR EVEN AN ISOLATED 80 DEGREE HIGH. (AS AN EXAMPLE, SAN JOSE IS FORECAST TO HIT 72 ON SUNDAY WHICH IS JUST SHORT OF THE CURRENT RECORD OF 76 SET BACK IN 1963). JUST HOW STRONG WILL THE RIDGE BE? IF THE ECMWF FORECAST OF 500 MB HEIGHTS AT OAKLAND OF 586-587DM VERIFIES, IT WILL SET THE RECORD FOR THE DAY FOR 500 MB HEIGHTS AND POTENTIALLY TIE THE MONTHLY RECORD. CURRENTLY DO NOT SEE A SETUP FOR TULE FOG MOVING INTO OUR REGION, SO CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR IDEAL FOR ALL OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. IT WILL FEEL LIKE SPRING IN FEBRUARY! LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE FAVORS DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH. && .AVIATION...AS OF 3:55 AM PST WEDNESDAY... PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. INTERMITTENT MVFR POSBL AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH TODAY. RAIN WILL BE LIGHT. CURRENTLY... HIGH CLOUDS PRECEDING AN ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE MOVING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AOA 8-10K FT AGL. SATELLITE PRODUCTS SHOWING THIN LAYER OF TULE FOG BANKED ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY. OFFSHORE/EAST WINDS COULD POTENTIALLY ADVECT THIS TULE FOG INTO THE EAST BAY... HOWEVER NOT SEEING THIS YET. INSTEAD... PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDING BRIEFLY AT KSQL TO THE SOUTH OF KSFO. CURRENTLY... THE SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY IS SHOWING THE MOST POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING FOG/LOW CLOUDS INTO THE SUNRISE HOUR GIVEN LATEST TRENDS. VICINITY OF KSFO... VFR THIS MORNING WITH INTERMITTENT MVFR POSBL AT AND AROUND FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAINLY LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS. BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING. SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. NEED TO WATCH NEARBY OBS CLOSELY TODAY AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN POPPING UP BRIEFLY AROUND THE SOUTH BAY. MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR... LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS. && .MARINE...AS OF 09:38 AM PST WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE PASSING FRONT WILL BRING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT THE MOUTH OF COASTAL GAPS SUCH AS THE GOLDEN GATE...MONTEREY BAY...AND WEST OF POINT REYES. LARGE...LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THEN SWELL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA AND ITS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR FROM 3 PM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS AVIATION: DRP MARINE: MM VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
403 AM PST WED FEB 3 2016 ...LAST ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN TODAY... ...MUCH WARMER WEATHER GOING INTO NEXT WEEK... .SYNOPSIS...LIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY IN THE EVENING. DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW RECORD HIGHS MAY EVEN BE SET NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PST WEDNESDAY...CHILLY START TO THE DAY TODAY THANKS TO FAIRLY LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN MANY SPOTS. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. SO FAR FOR THE SHIFT KMUX RADAR HAS REMAINED IN CLEAR AIR MODE THANKS TO NO PRECIP ECHOES BEING PICKED UP. THAT WILL CHANGE LATER TODAY AS THE SECOND AND FINAL WEAK SYSTEM FOR THE WEEK MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR ALONG WITH THE NAM ARE BOTH IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT RAIN WILL RETURN BACK TO THE NORTH BAY BY LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN DOWN TO SF BAY REGION BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE GREATEST OVER THE NORTH BAY WHERE .2" TO .4" CAN BE EXPECTED. FOR SF BAY REGION MOST SPOTS WILL LIKELY SEE LESS THAN 1/10" WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN IN THE MONTEREY BAY AREA. DID LOOK AT VARIOUS CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS AND FEEL THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT OCCUR IN THE CWA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S IN ALMOST ALL SPOTS. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD TO THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY HELPING TO PUSH THE STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES -- IN SOME CASES 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL -- WITH WIDESPREAD MID 60S TO MID 70S EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN MOST SPOTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WE COULD EVEN SEE A FEW RECORD HIGHS NEXT WEEK OR EVEN AN ISOLATED 80 DEGREE HIGH. (AS AN EXAMPLE, SAN JOSE IS FORECAST TO HIT 72 ON SUNDAY WHICH IS JUST SHORT OF THE CURRENT RECORD OF 76 SET BACK IN 1963). JUST HOW STRONG WILL THE RIDGE BE? IF THE ECMWF FORECAST OF 500 MB HEIGHTS AT OAKLAND OF 586-587DM VERIFIES, IT WILL SET THE RECORD FOR THE DAY FOR 500 MB HEIGHTS AND POTENTIALLY TIE THE MONTHLY RECORD. CURRENTLY DO NOT SEE A SETUP FOR TULE FOG MOVING INTO OUR REGION, SO CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR IDEAL FOR ALL OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. IT WILL FEEL LIKE SPRING IN FEBRUARY! LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE FAVORS DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH. && .AVIATION...AS OF 3:55 AM PST WEDNESDAY... PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. INTERMITTENT MVFR POSBL AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH TODAY. RAIN WILL BE LIGHT. CURRENTLY... HIGH CLOUDS PRECEEDING AN ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE MOVING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AOA 8-10K FT AGL. SATELLITE PRODUCTS SHOWING THIN LAYER OF TULE FOG BANKED ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY. OFFSHORE/EAST WINDS COULD POTENTIALLY ADVECT THIS TULE FOG INTO THE EAST BAY... HOWEVER NOT SEEING THIS YET. INSTEAD... PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDING BRIEFLY AT KSQL TO THE SOUTH OF KSFO. CURRENTLY... THE SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY IS SHOWING THE MOST POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING FOG/LOW CLOUDS INTO THE SUNRISE HOUR GIVEN LATEST TRENDS. VICINITY OF KSFO... VFR THIS MORNING WITH INTERMITTENT MVFR POSBL AT AND AROUND FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAINLY LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS. BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING. SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. NEED TO WATCH NEARBY OBS CLOSELY TODAY AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN POPPING UP BRIEFLY AROUND THE SOUTH BAY. MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR... LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS. && .MARINE...AS OF 03:49 AM PST WEDNESDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TODAY. WINDS WILL PREDOMINATELY BE OFFSHORE/SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT THE MOUTH OF COASTAL GAPS SUCH AS AROUND THE GOLDEN GATE...MONTEREY BAY... AND WEST OF POINT REYES. LARGE...LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THEN SWELL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA AND ITS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 8 AM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL AVIATION: DRP MARINE: DRP VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
325 AM PST WED FEB 3 2016 ...LAST ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN TODAY... ...MUCH WARMER WEATHER GOING INTO NEXT WEEK... .SYNOPSIS...LIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY IN THE EVENING. DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW RECORD HIGHS MAY EVEN BE SET NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PST WEDNESDAY...CHILLY START TO THE DAY TODAY THANKS TO FAIRLY LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN MANY SPOTS. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. SO FAR FOR THE SHIFT KMUX RADAR HAS REMAINED IN CLEAR AIR MODE THANKS TO NO PRECIP ECHOES BEING PICKED UP. THAT WILL CHANGE LATER TODAY AS THE SECOND AND FINAL WEAK SYSTEM FOR THE WEEK MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR ALONG WITH THE NAM ARE BOTH IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT RAIN WILL RETURN BACK TO THE NORTH BAY BY LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN DOWN TO SF BAY REGION BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE GREATEST OVER THE NORTH BAY WHERE .2" TO .4" CAN BE EXPECTED. FOR SF BAY REGION MOST SPOTS WILL LIKELY SEE LESS THAN 1/10" WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN IN THE MONTEREY BAY AREA. DID LOOK AT VARIOUS CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS AND FEEL THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT OCCUR IN THE CWA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S IN ALMOST ALL SPOTS. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD TO THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY HELPING TO PUSH THE STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES -- IN SOME CASES 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL -- WITH WIDESPREAD MID 60S TO MID 70S EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN MOST SPOTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WE COULD EVEN SEE A FEW RECORD HIGHS NEXT WEEK OR EVEN AN ISOLATED 80 DEGREE HIGH. (AS AN EXAMPLE, SAN JOSE IS FORECAST TO HIT 72 ON SUNDAY WHICH IS JUST SHORT OF THE CURRENT RECORD OF 76 SET BACK IN 1963). JUST HOW STRONG WILL THE RIDGE BE? IF THE ECMWF FORECAST OF 500 MB HEIGHTS AT OAKLAND OF 586-587DM VERIFIES, IT WILL SET THE RECORD FOR THE DAY FOR 500 MB HEIGHTS AND POTENTIALLY TIE THE MONTHLY RECORD. CURRENTLY DO NOT SEE A SETUP FOR TULE FOG MOVING INTO OUR REGION, SO CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR IDEAL FOR ALL OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. IT WILL FEEL LIKE SPRING IN FEBRUARY! LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE FAVORS DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH. && .AVIATION...AS OF 10:18 PM PST TUESDAY...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING TOWARD THE BAY AREA OUT AHEAD OF AN EPAC WARM FRONT. THIS WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE BAY AREA WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WITHIN A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING CAUSING SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY MAINLY IN THE BAY AREA. PRESENT PRESSURE GRADIENTS WMC-SFO 1.1 MB AND SAC-SFO 0.6 MB ARE FORECAST TO STEEPEN A LITTLE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT E-NE WINDS OVER OUR AREA EXCEPT A LITTLE GUSTY AT TIMES IN THE NORTH AND EAST BAY MTNS/HILLS. TULE FOG IN THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY CAN BECOME ADVECTED INTO THE EAST BAY IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN. AT THE MOMENT GOES SATELLITE LIFR PRODUCT INDICATES PATCHY FOG CONFINED TO EASTERN ALAMEDA COUNTY...SAN BENITO COUNTY AS WELL AS IN THE SALINAS VALLEY. MOST PLACES ARE VFR THIS EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE FOG FORECAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN INCREASING MIXING WINDS WEDNESDAY SHOULD MIX OUT FOG PATCHES DURING THE DAY EXCEPT POSSIBLY FAR INLAND VALLEYS WHERE LOWER LEVEL STABILITY PERSISTS. AS MENTIONED EARLIER MID LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY VERY BRIEFLY RAMP UP LATE WED AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTH BAY PER RECENT MODEL FORECASTS. HIGH PRESSURE IS OTHERWISE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH LATE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. VICINITY OF KSFO...MAINLY LIGHT NE-E WINDS. BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING. SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...WINDS BECOMING SE TONIGHT...MAINLY LIGHT EXCEPT LOCALLY TO AROUND 10 KNOTS IN THE SALINAS VALLEY. MAINLY VFR HOWEVER PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE SALINAS VALLEY. && .MARINE...AS OF 9:10 PM PST TUESDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LARGE...LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THEN SWELL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA AND ITS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 8 AM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL AVIATION: CANEPA MARINE: CANEPA VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
938 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH VERY MILD TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. THE RAIN MAY START AS A LIGHT WINTRY MIX NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION BEFORE TURNING TO RAIN BY MID MORNING. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS THIS EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. COLDER AIR WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 938 AM EST...SFC LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WITH A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND WILL BE HEADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT...STEADY RAIN IS OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS. KENX RADAR IS SHOWING SOME HIGHER RETURNS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...BUT BASED ON BOTH DUAL POL RADAR PRODUCTS AND MRMS ANALYSIS...IT SEEMS THIS IS PROBABLY SOME BRIGHT BANDING. STILL...KRME HAS HAD HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH...SO SOME LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING. ALTHOUGH THE SNOWPACK IS EXTREMELY LIMITED OVER THE AREA...NOHRSC ANALYSIS SHOWS UP TO A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...TEMPS ARE ONLY IN THE MID 30S RIGHT NOW...LIMITING SNOWMELT IN THAT AREA. AS TEMPS RISE LATER TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT...SNOWMELT WILL COMBINE WITH THE RAINFALL AND FROZEN GROUND IN PLACE TO CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF ACROSS THE AREA. SEE OUR HYDRO DISCUSSION FOR HOW WE EXPECT THIS TO IMPACT OUR HSA. A FEW SPOTS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EAST OF THE TERRAIN ARE STILL 31-32 DEGREES. AN SPS CONTINUES FOR SOME HIGHLY LOCALIZED FREEZING RAIN THAT STILL MAY BE OCCURRING...LEAVING A LIGHT ACCRETION OF ICE. TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...ENDING THE THREAT FOR ANY FREEZING PRECIP. THE 13Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS STEADY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...STEADY RAINFALL WILL START TO TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST...AS THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT EXITS THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST...AND THE SFC COLD FRONT STARTS TO MOVE THROUGH. ALTHOUGH TEMPS ARE STILL GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM FOR THIS AFTN TO VERY MILD LEVELS FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. HIGHS LOOK TO REACH MID 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA...ESP FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. E-SE WINDS ARE GUSTY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 30 KTS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...S-SE WINDS ARE 10-20 KTS WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHEST GUSTS ARE PROBABLY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN HOURS WHEN THE STRONGEST LLWJ WILL BE IN PLACE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OCCLUDES IN SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR IS USHERED INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY AND DIMINISH AS WELL...BUT STILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH THE NIGHT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO BE PRECIP-FREE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO LOW 40S. A TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOST AREAS SEEING DRY WEATHER AS HIGHER PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...WITH LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID/UPPER 40S IN VALLEY AREAS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL TREND TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS AND GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN SETS UP WITH EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER TROUGHING AND STRONG UPPER IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH. DURING THE WEEKEND...ONE STRONG UPPER IMPULSE IS FORECASTED TO TRACK WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION AS SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AHEAD OF STRONGER UPPER ENERGY SETTING UP TO DIVE OUT OF CANADA DURING THE BEGINNING AND MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. QUITE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THE BEGINNING TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS AS TO WHERE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SETS UP...WHICH IS KEY TO WHETHER A STRONG UPPER VORTEX TRACKS CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. OR FURTHER OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALSO DETERMINE WHERE AND WHEN ANY POTENTIAL ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL COULD OCCUR...IF ANY. HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THOSE DETAILS RESULTS IN JUST PUTTING CHANCES FOR SNOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE MIX WITH RAIN IN SOUTHERN AREAS...UNTIL DETAILS BECOME CLEARER. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...SOME 20S IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...BUT AGAIN SOME 20S IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH AGAIN 20S IN NORTHERN AREAS. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE APPROACH THIS MORNING AND ITS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY THEN BE FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT...HOWEVER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND 06Z/THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH LIGHT RAIN BEGINNING BETWEEN 12Z-14Z. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE AREA. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOPED BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT TOWARD 00Z AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD TREND TO MVFR. THE RAIN COULD TAKE LONGER TO EXIT THE KPOU AND KPSF AREAS SO KEPT VCSH THERE 00Z-06Z THIS EVENING. SLEET WITH BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH KGFL AND KPSF...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE RATHER BRIEF. OTHERWISE RAIN IS EXPECTED. A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW IS EXPECTED AT 8-12 KT WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS...ESP AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE SOME GUSTS COULD REACH 20 KT. BY THIS EVENING...SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 10 KT...THEN SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 06Z. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE PROBLEMATIC THIS MORNING...AS SURFACE WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT. WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 30-40 KT OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK... WED NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA. THU-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .HYDROLOGY... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION...OTHERWISE RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS TONIGHT WITH COLDER AIR USHERED BACK IN. AROUND AN INCH TO INCH AND A HALF OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...AND THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT. THE LATEST OFFICIAL NERFC FORECASTS FOR THE MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE ONLY KAST BRIDGE IN THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND WILLIAMSTOWN IN THE NRN BERKS BARELY EXCEEDING THEIR RESPECTIVE ALERT STAGES BY A FEW INCHES. OVERALL SOME 1 TO 2.5 FOOT RISES ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES COMBINED WITH RUNOFF OCCURS. ADDED EFFECTS OF SNOWMELT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL BE MITIGATED DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THIS STORM SYSTEM...PRECIP WILL END AND TEMPS WILL TURN COLDER...ALLOWING THE WATER TO RECEDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. OVERALL...NO WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ038-054-061- 084. MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025. VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013-014. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IRL NEAR TERM...FRUGIS SHORT TERM...IRL LONG TERM...NAS AVIATION...NAS HYDROLOGY...IRL/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
403 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND THEN UP INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...SENDING A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND LINGER THERE UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION BY TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... BEFORE 10 AM... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AS POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION. SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS WHICH WILL SLOW PRECIP ARRIVAL FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN FACT MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS HIGHER THETA-E VALUES REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. LATEST HRRR...RGEM AND RAP DATA SHOWS PRECIP WILL BEING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MASS AROUND 12-14Z. HOWEVER BULK OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE IS SLOWER...AROUND 15Z. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPS AND WHEN EXACTLY PRECIP WILL MOVE THROUGH...THERE COULD BE A RISK FOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERKS AND EXTREME NORTHERN MASS. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON IF THIS WILL OCCUR SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED STEADY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND HAVE BEGUN TO RISEN IN A FEW LOCATIONS. AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE OUT OR THE SOUTHEAST WHICH COULD HELP MOISTEN UP THE LOW LEVELS WITH THE MARITIME AIR. TODAY... OVERVIEW: ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BY TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT THIS MORNING AN A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING. DYNAMIC BLOCKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT BY THURSDAY MORNING. RAINFALL: OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST. BULK OF THE PRECIP IN THE MORNING WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN MASS OR EVEN NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS MAY KEEP MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRY. HOWEVER THE REGION WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND VERY MOIST AIR WILL BE SPILLING INTO THE REGION. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR FOG AND DRIZZLE...WITH PERHAPS EVEN A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. BULK OF THE PRECIP HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION BY 18-21Z. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...ANTICIPATE HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PWATS AROUND 1.3 INCHES...ABOUT 4 TO 6 SD ABOVE NORMAL...AND A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...3-4 SD ABOVE NORMAL...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROF TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE...ALL POINT TOWARDS THE POTENTIAL OF A GOOD SLUG OF RAINFALL DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST RAINFALL AT THIS TIME IS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES. HOWEVER AMOUNTS COULD BE HIGHER AS THIS SYSTEM IS OVER ACHIEVING WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR...THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN UNDERDONE WITH AMOUNTS IN THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 18-00Z. WIND: 925 MB JET INCREASES BETWEEN 60-70 KTS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LAPSE RATES ARE POOR ACROSS THE REGION LIMITING ANY MIXING POTENTIAL. SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT SHOWING 50-60 KTS ABOUT 2.5 KFT WITH AN INVERSION. HOWEVER IS THE PROFILE BECOME MOIST ADIABATIC OR IF SHOWERS/T-STORMS TAP INTO THE LLJ IT COULD MIX DOWN STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WIND GUSTS COULD REACH BETWEEN 30-40 MPH ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS LOCATION IS BEST FOR CONVECTION AND EVEN TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO 60F WHICH COULD INCREASE THE MIXING POTENTIAL A BIT. TEMPERATURES: LASTLY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. THERE WAS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SPOTS HITTING 60F BUT BELIEVE THAT WILL BE TOUGH AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE THICK AND LIMIT ANY RADIATIONAL HEATING. ALSO APPEARS THAT THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL OCCUR AFTER 21-00Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... TONIGHT... COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...APPEARS THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN BY EARLY THURSDAY AM THANKS TO NORTH ATLANTIC RIDGE. BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING AROUND 00Z BUT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE BY 06Z. PRECIP WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION FOR THUNDER DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL ALSO INCREASE THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS WELL AS BRING DOWN ANY GUSTY WINDS. LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN FACT 925 MB JET STRENGTHENS BETWEEN 60-70 KTS. AGAIN SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG INVERSION EVEN OVER THE WATERS. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...BETWEEN 20-30 MPH. HOWEVER GUSTS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AFTER 06Z. FINALLY TEMPERATURES MAY WARM RIGHT AROUND 00-03Z WHEN THE WARMEST 925 MB TEMPS OCCUR. USED A NON-DIURNAL TREND TONIGHT FOR TEMPERATURES AS CAA WONT TRULY TAKE PLACE UNTIL AFTER 06-09Z. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... BIG PICTURE... LONGWAVE SCALE SHOWS A TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND RIDGE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST LATE THIS WEEK...ALL SHIFTING EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WHILE ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA. MEANWHILE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH A TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY...SWINGING WELL OFFSHORE AND THEN NORTH INTO NOVA SCOTIA. THE THIRD SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES THE MIDWEST TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRINGS THE FLOW EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS UP THE EAST COAST. THIS PATTERN SUGGESTS LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH/EAST NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE THURSDAY-FRIDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL STORM MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES COOL BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. THE DAILIES... THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH THEN CROSSES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND TURNS THE UPPER FLOW WESTERLY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALIGN WITH AND STALL THE COLD FRONT JUST OFFSHORE UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. MEANWHILE THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL MOVE OVERHEAD DURING THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL INDUCE A WAVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT...PUSHING THE PCPN SHIELD BACK ACROSS EASTERN MASS AND RI. TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART WILL SUPPORT RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW...BUT COOLING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW THAT COULD LEAVE A COATING TO AN INCH. SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A CLIPPER LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NORTH. SO EXPECT A DRY FROPA WITH PATCHY CLOUDS. MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. TWO SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC WILL GO FEET-DRY...THE FIRST TONIGHT AND THE SECOND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE FORMS LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST USA COAST AND THEN CARRIES IT WELL OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. ITS MAIN EFFECT ON NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE TO COMBINE WITH CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE TO BRING AN EAST FLOW ONSHORE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PCPN. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND DIGS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA BY MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW TUESDAY. THIS WOULD BRING PCPN INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND PRIMARILY ON TUESDAY. THE FASTEST MODEL QPF REACHES OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY ON TUESDAY AND THE SLOWER ONSET ON TUESDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD AIR OVER EASTERN CANADA THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR INITIAL SNOW WITH A CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN ANY CASE...THAT/S A LOT OF DETAILS FOR A SYSTEM STILL OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN. BECAUSE IT IS SO FAR OUT IN SPACE AND TIME...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THROUGH 10Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH LOW VSBYS. MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER AT THE ONSET COULD SEE -FZRA BETWEEN 12-15Z FOR KORE AND POINTS NW. OTHERWISE...ISOLD TSRA PSBL LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT ESP ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF RI/MA. SE WIND GUSTS 25-35 KTS PSBL WED. LLWS IS POSSIBLE DUE TO INVERSION. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIP COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO IN EITHER DIRECTION OF FORECAST. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIP COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO IN EITHER DIRECTION OF FORECAST. OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE THURSDAY-FRIDAY... VFR...EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY AND NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS SUNDAY. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. BOTH WIND AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL HELP SEAS BUILD CLOSE TO 8-10 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. THIS POTENT JET WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE GUSTS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS ACROSS EASTERN WATERS. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS GUSTS WILL BE 35 KTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SCA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WATERS LIMITING VSBYS...THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED THUNDER WEDNESDAY EVENING. OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE... THURSDAY-FRIDAY...WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS EACH DAY. SEAS 5-7 FEET ON THE RI WATERS THURSDAY AND THE OUTER WATERS BOTH DAYS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THOSE ROUGH SEAS. SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS BELOW 25 KT SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY. WIND SHIFT TO A NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND WITH GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS BY EVENING. SEAS BELOW 5 FEET BOTH DAYS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE SUNDAY. && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGHS FOR FEB 3RD - 4TH... BOS...59/1991 - 64/1991 BDL...61/1991 - 64/1991 PVD...60/1991 - 66/1991 ORH...57/1909 - 61/1991 && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-232-255-256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-236. GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251-254. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN NEAR TERM...DUNTEN SHORT TERM...DUNTEN LONG TERM...WTB AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN CLIMATE...STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
358 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WED AND UP INTO EASTERN CANADA WED NIGHT...SENDING A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND LINGER THERE UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION BY TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 100 AM UPDATE... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND SURFACE HIGH HAS BEGUN TO MOVE OFFSHORE AS POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION. SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS WHICH WILL SLOW PRECIP ARRIVAL TIME FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN FACT MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS HIGHER THETA-E VALUES REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. LATEST HRRR...RGEM AND RAP DATA SHOWS PRECIP WILL BEING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MASS AROUND 12-14Z. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPS THERE COULD BE A RISK FOR FREEZING RAIN. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON IF THIS WILL OCCUR SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE LATE TONIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE OUT OR THE SOUTHEAST WHICH COULD HELP MOISTEN UP THE LOW LEVELS WITH THE MARITIME AIR. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT... LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS STORM...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN...WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT TIMING OF ONSET...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE COLDER VALLEYS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES AND NORTHERN WORCESTER COUNTY. SEE NEAR TERM SECTION FOR MORE ON THIS POTENTIAL. ANY FREEZING RAIN SHOULD CHANGEOVER TO RAIN QUICKLY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. EXPECTING 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE WET FOR MOST AREAS. EXPECT PRECIP TO START TO COME TO AN END ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY MORNING. THUNDER...HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER FOR AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE SOME MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WINDS...THERE IS A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THIS STORM. WINDS 1-2KFT OFF THE SURFACE WILL BE 50 TO 60 KTS. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DECENT INVERSION IN PLACE THAT WILL LIMIT THESE STRONGER GUSTS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECTING WINDS TO GUST UP TO ABOUT 35 MPH WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. HOWEVER...IF SHOWERS OR ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO TAP INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...WE MAY SEE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN AND AROUND THOSE STORMS. TEMPERATURES...QUITE MILD AS THE SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE REGION...DESPITE THE RAIN AND CLOUDS. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE DURING THE EVENING HOURS JUST PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 40S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... BIG PICTURE... LONGWAVE SCALE SHOWS A TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND RIDGE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST LATE THIS WEEK...ALL SHIFTING EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WHILE ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA. MEANWHILE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH A TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY...SWINGING WELL OFFSHORE AND THEN NORTH INTO NOVA SCOTIA. THE THIRD SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES THE MIDWEST TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRINGS THE FLOW EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS UP THE EAST COAST. THIS PATTERN SUGGESTS LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH/EAST NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE THURSDAY-FRIDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL STORM MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES COOL BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. THE DAILIES... THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH THEN CROSSES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND TURNS THE UPPER FLOW WESTERLY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALIGN WITH AND STALL THE COLD FRONT JUST OFFSHORE UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. MEANWHILE THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL MOVE OVERHEAD DURING THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL INDUCE A WAVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT...PUSHING THE PCPN SHIELD BACK ACROSS EASTERN MASS AND RI. TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART WILL SUPPORT RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW...BUT COOLING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW THAT COULD LEAVE A COATING TO AN INCH. SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A CLIPPER LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NORTH. SO EXPECT A DRY FROPA WITH PATCHY CLOUDS. MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. TWO SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC WILL GO FEET-DRY...THE FIRST TONIGHT AND THE SECOND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE FORMS LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST USA COAST AND THEN CARRIES IT WELL OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. ITS MAIN EFFECT ON NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE TO COMBINE WITH CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE TO BRING AN EAST FLOW ONSHORE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PCPN. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND DIGS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA BY MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW TUESDAY. THIS WOULD BRING PCPN INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND PRIMARILY ON TUESDAY. THE FASTEST MODEL QPF REACHES OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY ON TUESDAY AND THE SLOWER ONSET ON TUESDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD AIR OVER EASTERN CANADA THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR INITIAL SNOW WITH A CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN ANY CASE...THAT/S A LOT OF DETAILS FOR A SYSTEM STILL OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN. BECAUSE IT IS SO FAR OUT IN SPACE AND TIME...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THROUGH 10Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH LOW VSBYS. MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER AT THE ONSET COULD SEE -FZRA BETWEEN 12-15Z FOR KORE AND POINTS NW. OTHERWISE...ISOLD TSRA PSBL LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT ESP ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF RI/MA. SE WIND GUSTS 25-35 KTS PSBL WED. LLWS IS POSSIBLE DUE TO INVERSION. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIP COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO IN EITHER DIRECTION OF FORECAST. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIP COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO IN EITHER DIRECTION OF FORECAST. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE THURSDAY-FRIDAY... VFR...EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY AND NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS SUNDAY. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE DAY WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS IS ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS WHERE GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE GALE WATCH FOR THE TIME BEING. EITHER THE GALES ARE MARGINAL IN THESE AREAS...OR THEY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO LAST FOR A FEW HOURS. SEAS INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE EASTERN WATERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE... THURSDAY-FRIDAY...WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS EACH DAY. SEAS 5-7 FEET ON THE RI WATERS THURSDAY AND THE OUTER WATERS BOTH DAYS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THOSE ROUGH SEAS. SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS BELOW 25 KT SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY. WIND SHIFT TO A NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND WITH GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS BY EVENING. SEAS BELOW 5 FEET BOTH DAYS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE SUNDAY. && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGHS FOR FEB 3RD - 4TH... BOS...59/1991 - 64/1991 BDL...61/1991 - 64/1991 PVD...60/1991 - 66/1991 ORH...57/1909 - 61/1991 && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-232-255-256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-236. GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251-254. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG NEAR TERM...DUNTEN SHORT TERM...RLG LONG TERM...WTB AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN MARINE...WTB/RLG CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1259 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WED AND UP INTO EASTERN CANADA WED NIGHT...SENDING A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST THU AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRES TRACKS TO THE EAST OF NEW ENG THU NIGHT INTO FRI. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND...THEN A COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 100 AM UPDATE... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND SURFACE HIGH HAS BEGUN TO MOVE OFFSHORE AS POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION. SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS WHICH WILL SLOW PRECIP ARRIVAL TIME FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN FACT MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS HIGHER THETA-E VALUES REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. LATEST HRRR...RGEM AND RAP DATA SHOWS PRECIP WILL BEING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MASS AROUND 12-14Z. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPS THERE COULD BE A RISK FOR FREEZING RAIN. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON IF THIS WILL OCCUR SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE LATE TONIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE OUT OR THE SOUTHEAST WHICH COULD HELP MOISTEN UP THE LOW LEVELS WITH THE MARITIME AIR. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT... LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS STORM...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN...WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT TIMING OF ONSET...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE COLDER VALLEYS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES AND NORTHERN WORCESTER COUNTY. SEE NEAR TERM SECTION FOR MORE ON THIS POTENTIAL. ANY FREEZING RAIN SHOULD CHANGEOVER TO RAIN QUICKLY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. EXPECTING 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE WET FOR MOST AREAS. EXPECT PRECIP TO START TO COME TO AN END ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY MORNING. THUNDER...HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER FOR AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE SOME MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WINDS...THERE IS A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THIS STORM. WINDS 1-2KFT OFF THE SURFACE WILL BE 50 TO 60 KTS. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DECENT INVERSION IN PLACE THAT WILL LIMIT THESE STRONGER GUSTS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECTING WINDS TO GUST UP TO ABOUT 35 MPH WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. HOWEVER...IF SHOWERS OR ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO TAP INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...WE MAY SEE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN AND AROUND THOSE STORMS. TEMPERATURES...QUITE MILD AS THE SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE REGION...DESPITE THE RAIN AND CLOUDS. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE DURING THE EVENING HOURS JUST PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 40S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE SE NEW ENG THU * ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN POSSIBLE THU NIGHT SE NEW ENG CHANGING TO SNOW IF PRECIP MAKES IT FAR ENOUGH WEST INTO NEW ENG * DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND * A COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THURSDAY... LONGWAVE TROF BACK ACROSS CENTRAL US WITH SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NEW ENG. COLD FRONT WILL SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS AND LIKELY STALL OFF THE SE NEW ENG COAST WHICH WILL CONTINUE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS AS DEEP MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS NEAR THE COAST. OTHERWISE...MODELS SHOW EXCELLENT MID LEVEL DRYING MOVING INTO W NEW ENG WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PTSUNNY SKIES FURTHER WEST IN THE INTERIOR. TEMPS STARTING OUT RATHER MILD...ESPECIALLY SE NEW ENG WHERE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S...BUT THERE IS A FAIRLY SHARP LOW LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS SNE SO EXPECT 40S FURTHER BACK IN THE INTERIOR. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY... SHARP MID LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH FAIRLY ROBUST SHORTWAVE LEADING TO A WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE OFFSHORE FRONT THU NIGHT. THE QUESTION BECOMES TO WHAT EXTENT WILL THIS BACK DEEP MOISTURE PLUME INTO NEW ENG. ECMWF AND GGEM BRING PRECIP BACK WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR WITH ECMWF A BIT SLOWER AND LINGERING PRECIP INTO FRI...AND BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO SE NEW ENG AS THE COLUMN COOLS. GFS FURTHER EAST AND CONFINE PRECIP TO CAPE/ISLANDS. WE USED A BLEND OF GEFS AND ECMWF EPS WHICH REPRESENTS SOMEWHAT OF A COMPROMISE. WE WILL INCREASE POPS THU NIGHT ACROSS SE NEW ENG BRINGING CHC TO SE MA AND RI WITH LIKELY FOR CAPE/ISLANDS. THE COLUMN IS COOLING FROM THE WEST DURING THU NIGHT SO ANY SHOWERS WOULD CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF SNOW IF THE PRECIP MAKES IT FAR ENOUGH WEST. THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR SOME MINOR ACCUM FAR SE MA AND CAPE COD BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WILL DEPEND ON PRECIP MAKING IT BACK ACROSS THE REGION. SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. TREND WILL BE FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS FRI...ALTHOUGH TIMING IS NOT CERTAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO FRI MORNING IF TIMING IS SLOWER. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... LOOKS MAINLY DRY DURING THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRES IN CONTROL TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENG SAT...THEN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO NEW ENG SUNDAY...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY... COMPLEX PATTERN DEVELOPING AS AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM TROF MOVES ACROSS THE GT LAKES WHILE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM LIFTS NE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LARGE OCEAN STORM TRACKING WELL TO THE S OF NEW ENG. MOST OF THE GEFS AND ECMWF EPS MEMBERS ARE ALSO WELL OFFSHORE BUT THIS IS DAY 6 AND HOW THIS PACIFIC SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROF IS UNCERTAIN SO THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND NORTHERN STREAM TROF PER ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH SPINS UP ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT COASTAL LOW S OF NEW ENG NEXT TUE. OBVIOUSLY A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS TIME RANGE BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THROUGH 10Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH LOW VSBYS. MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER AT THE ONSET COULD SEE -FZRA BETWEEN 12-15Z FOR KORE AND POINTS NW. OTHERWISE...ISOLD TSRA PSBL LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT ESP ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF RI/MA. SE WIND GUSTS 25-35 KTS PSBL WED. LLWS IS POSSIBLE DUE TO INVERSION. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIP COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO IN EITHER DIRECTION OF FORECAST. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIP COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO IN EITHER DIRECTION OF FORECAST. OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR IN THE INTERIOR...BUT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE SE NEW ENG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR INTERIOR. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT OF ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN AND ASSOCD MVFR/IFR BACKING IN ACROSS SE NEW ENG THU NIGHT WHICH WOULD CHANGE TO SNOW IF PRECIP MAKES IT FAR ENOUGH WEST...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS FRI. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE DAY WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS IS ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS WHERE GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE GALE WATCH FOR THE TIME BEING. EITHER THE GALES ARE MARGINAL IN THESE AREAS...OR THEY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO LAST FOR A FEW HOURS. SEAS INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE EASTERN WATERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE... THURSDAY...LIGHT W/NW WINDS...BUT SEAS 5-8 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS IN LINGERING S SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS AND REDUCED VSBYS POSSIBLE WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD. THU NIGHT AND FRI...INCREASING NW WINDS TO 20 KT WITH LOW PROB FOR A FEW G25 KT. SCA SEAS PERSIST OVER OUTER WATERS. VSBYS POSSIBLY REDUCED IN A PERIOD OF RAIN OVER WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD THU NIGHT WHICH COULD CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS...IMPROVING FRI. SATURDAY...INCREASING SW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT DEVELOPING AFTERNOON/EVENING. SUNDAY...WINDS TURNING NW WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY BELOW SCA. && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGHS FOR FEB 3RD - 4TH... BOS...59/1991 - 64/1991 BDL...61/1991 - 64/1991 PVD...60/1991 - 66/1991 ORH...57/1909 - 61/1991 && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ230. GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251-254. GALE WATCH FROM 7 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ANZ255-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG NEAR TERM...DUNTEN SHORT TERM...RLG LONG TERM...KJC AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN MARINE...KJC/RLG CLIMATE...STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
937 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG AN OFFSHORE FRONT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A STRONG OCEAN STORM SHOULD TRACK WELL OFFSHORE LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THEN ANOTHER STORM LOOKS TO REDEVELOP OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO INTENSIFY ALONG THE NOW STATIONARY FRONT AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE EVENING UPDATE. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE TRENDED SNOWIER WITH THE LATEST RUNS. HOWEVER, I HESITATE TO CHANGE THE SNOW AMOUNTS AS MANY LOCATIONS STILL HAVE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE 32 DEGREES, MEANING WE`RE STILL SEVERAL HOURS AWAY FROM THE CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW. THUS FOR NOW, WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SNOW AMOUNTS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONFIGURATION FROM THE 4 PM UPDATE, BUT WILL BE WATCHING THE TIMING OF THE CHANGE OVER VERY CLOSELY. TIMING...RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE DELAWARE VALLEY. EXPECT THAT IT SHOULD MOVE WEST THROUGH THE OVER NIGHT HOURS REACHING THE LEHIGH VALLEY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE TIMING OF THE SNOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL IMPACT PART, IF NOT ALL, OF THE MORNING COMMUTE AND THAT IS WHY WE HAVE INCLUDED AREAS TO THE WEST OF PHILADELPHIA. IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A SLOPPY AND SLIPPERY MORNING COMMUTE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SNOW/RAIN...SNOW SEEMS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH WITH TEMPERATURES STILL HANGING OUT IN THE 40S LATE THIS EVENING, PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE AS ALL RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT, AND THEN TRANSITION OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW DURING THE VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS (AT THIS POINT EXPECT THE TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW TO BE BETWEEN 2 AND 6 AM DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DEW POINTS FALL). AS THE PRECIPITATION FALLS, IT WILL START TO COOL THE COLUMN. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE JUST HOW FAST THAT COLUMN COOLS. PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WILL DEFINITELY PLAY A ROLE AND AS WE SEE SOME HEAVIER PRECIPITATION FALL, THE COLUMN WILL COOL FASTER AND WE SHOULD SEE A QUICK CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THE BEST VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS TO OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD AND THIS WOULD LEND TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF AN ACCUMULATING SNOW. WHILE THE GROUND TEMPS MAY BE FAIRLY WARM RIGHT NOW, INCREASED PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WILL ALLOW FOR ALL SURFACES TO ACCUMULATE, EVEN PAVED ROADS. AMOUNTS WILL VARY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AS YOU MOVE FURTHER INLAND AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS MORE TOWARDS THE COAST. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HINTS AT HIGHER TOTALS (THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST) IN EASTERN NEW JERSEY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE A WARNING BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS FURTHER. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... SNOW WILL GRADUALLY BE ENDING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW PRESSURE PULLS FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SNOW ENDING BY 10AM WITH SOME OF THE COASTAL LOCATIONS POSSIBLY SEEING SOME FLAKES THROUGH AROUND NOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND WE EXPECT THE AREA TO DRY OUT AND REMAIN THAT WAY AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... SUMMARY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH AN OCEAN STORM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHICH SHOULD SLIDE WELL OFFSHORE, THEN QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE TO REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP INVOLVES A TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THAT CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST. A MORE COMPLEX PATTERN THEN EVOLVES WITH A CLOSED LOW IN CANADA WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN STATES SATURDAY. THE LATTER SHOULD ALLOW A STORM TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHICH THEN DEEPENS RAPIDLY, HOWEVER THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE SUCH TO KEEP IT OFFSHORE AS IT TURNS NORTHEASTWARD. AN IMPRESSIVE TROUGH THEN IN THE PLAINS MOVES EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SORT OF REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE ONE TO WATCH GIVEN SUCH A DEEP INCOMING TROUGH THAT COULD CLOSE OFF INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. HOWEVER, THE INTERACTION WITH THE INITIAL OCEAN STORM COULD VERY WELL INFLUENCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SECOND STORM. WE USED A MODEL BLEND WITH CONTINUITY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THEN BLENDED IN MOSTLY THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BACKS MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT BEGINS TO SLIDE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA, WHICH WILL RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE SHOULD BE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING COMBINED WITH LOW DEW POINTS, THEREFORE A COLD NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED. FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY SATURDAY BEFORE WEAKENING INTO SUNDAY. OUR REGION LOOKS TO END UP BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING THE WEEKEND AS A MAIN TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND ANOTHER ONE CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE LATTER SHOULD DRIVE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST DURING SUNDAY WHICH THEN SHOULD GO OUT TO SEA AS IT RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES, ALTHOUGH IT MAY TOSS AT LEAST SOME CLOUDINESS OUR WAY. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM SHOULD SEND A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY, HOWEVER THIS FEATURE LOOKS WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED. AS A RESULT, WE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY ATTM. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION AS A ROBUST TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE EAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN LOW PRESSURE INTO THE GREAT LAKES, HOWEVER THEN HANDING OFF ENERGY EASTWARD THAT REDEVELOPS LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE REDEVELOPMENT/TRACK OF THIS STORM MAY DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE PREVIOUS ONE WHICH IS MORE OFFSHORE. IN ADDITION, THERE COULD BE A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA TUESDAY WHERE LIFT IS ENHANCED, HOWEVER THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPMENT. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A DECENT COASTAL STORM WITH COLD AIR COMING INTO PLAY. WHILE THERE IS A SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE REGARDING A STORM, THE TRACK AND INTENSITY IS LESS CERTAIN AND THAT WILL DETERMINE THE ACTUAL DETAILS /IF ANY/ FOR OUR AREA WHICH INCLUDES RAIN, SNOW, WIND AND COASTAL IMPACTS. GIVEN THE VARIABILITY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS TIME FRAME. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE EAST, BASICALLY MOVING OVER OUR AREA. THIS WOULD TAKE ANY COASTAL STORM OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS. AN ARCTIC FRONT OF SORTS MAY SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA DURING WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS AND COLDER AIR WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO ARRIVE DURING THURSDAY FROM THE WEST. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL CONTINUE AT THE DELAWARE VALLEY SITES (KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, AND KILG) AND THE COASTAL PLAIN SITES (KMIV AND KACY) THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE INTO KRDG AND KABE AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIMING OF THE CHANGE OVER TO A RAIN AND SNOW MIX AND EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW IS UNCERTAIN, BUT AT THIS POINT, EXPECT TO SEE THE MIX BEGIN BETWEEN 04 AND 06Z, AND THE CHANGE TO ALL SNOW HAPPEN BETWEEN 06 AND 10Z. GIVEN HOW LATE THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AT KRDG AND KABE, IT MAY BEGIN AND STAY ALL SNOW. GENERALLY EXPECTING THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO BE COINCIDENT WITH THE PERIOD OF ALL SNOW. FRIDAY...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 15Z ACROSS THE TERMINALS, EXCEPT FOR KACY AND KMIV WHICH MAY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH 18Z. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END EARLY WITH SNOW MOVING TO THE EAST THROUGH MID-MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS UP NEAR 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS POSSIBLE, WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATER SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, BECOMING NORTHERLY SUNDAY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER AS LOW PRESSURE REDEVELOPS OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW TO THE AREA WHICH WOULD REDUCE THE VISIBILITY. THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE THOUGH WITH THIS STORM AS ITS EFFECTS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE TRACK AND INTENSITY. && .MARINE... A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DELAWARE BAY. GALE GUSTS ARE LIKELY OVER THE OCEAN WATERS FROM THE PRE DAWN HOURS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DELAWARE BAY. A FEW GUSTS NEAR GALE FORCE MAY BE POSSIBLE AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, THOUGH SCA CONDITIONS ON THE COASTAL WATERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TIME HOURS. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO LOWER BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS IN PLACE. HOWEVER, A POTENTIALLY STRONG OCEAN STORM TO OUR SOUTHEAST LATER SUNDAY COULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD AND WINDS TO INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN OFFSHORE STORM TRACKS WELL EAST OF OUR WATERS INTO MONDAY, WHICH COULD ENHANCE SEAS AND WIND GUSTS. ANOTHER COASTAL STORM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY COULD RESULT IN GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTS, HOWEVER THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM WHICH CURRENTLY HAS LOWER CONFIDENCE. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ070-071-101>106. NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NJZ008>010-012-015>019. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NJZ013-014-020>027. DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR DEZ001. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR DEZ002>004. MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ008-012. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ015-019-020. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430- 431. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GORSE NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/MEOLA SHORT TERM...MEOLA LONG TERM...GORSE AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON/MEOLA MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
757 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT WILL BE LIFTING FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT BUT SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO STAY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE MID LEVELS WERE MOIST BUT LOW-LEVEL DRYING WAS OCCURRING. RAIN WAS NEAR THE COAST CLOSER TO THE FRONT. THE HRRR SUGGESTED RAIN MAY REDEVELOP FARTHER INLAND ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WE FORECASTED LOW POPS BASED ON THE LOW-LEVEL DRYING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST PUSHES EASTWARD. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. TWENTY-KNOT WIND GUSTS WERE OCCURRING UPSTREAM THIS EVENING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD BE TIGHTER IN THE EAST SECTION AND WE HAVE POSTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE MARION. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND TRANSIENT FLAT UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MUCH COOLER H85 TEMPS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S DESPITE NEAR FULL SUNSHINE. STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY AND APPROACH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WHICH WILL HELP TO INCREASE CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA BECOMES A CLOSED UPPER LOW SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE SC COAST. BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE LOW DEVELOPING FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF A SMALL CHANCE POP FOR RAIN MAINLY EAST OF CAE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BRIEF COASTAL LOW BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SOME OF THE ENERGY WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST GIVING ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PULL IN COLD POLAR AIR INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD. FRONT REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING ALONG THE COAST. LOW CLOUDS HAVE GENERALLY MOVED EAST OF THE TAF SITES...HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR TEMPO IFR CIGS AT OGB THRU 02Z. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. CURRENTLY WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. BETWEEN 03 AND 05Z WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 22 KNOTS...THEN VEER TO NORTHERLY AROUND DAYBREAK...FINALLY SUBSIDING TO 8 KNOTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. WITH DRIER AIR OVERTAKING THE REGION SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR BY 15Z. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY AT OGB...LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ036>038. && $$ SYNOPSIS...99 NEAR TERM...99 SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1138 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 851 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016 Low pressure center associated with ongoing strong storm system is currently near the western Iowa/Missouri border area. An occluded boundary extends east southeast from the low across the northern 2/3 or so of the forecast area. The weak pressure gradient in the vicinity of this boundary and associated light winds, coupled with moisture from today`s rains and a strong low level inversion, has allowed dense fog to develop. The dense fog has been spreading east with time behind the convective line that is currently just east of the I-57 corridor. Have recently expanded Dense Fog Advisory across all but far SE portion of forecast area to account for current and expected fog development. As the surface low lifts slowly northeast overnight, winds will become gusty out of the southwest and help to dissipate the fog. Otherwise, once the thin convective line in far eastern portion of the forecast area departs, the balance of the night should be dry. West central Illinois may see some light snow/flurries by daybreak as the deformation zone of the system slides by. But, by and large, expect any snow to hold off until the morning hours Wednesday. However, do not expect any accumulation at this time. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight) ISSUED AT 233 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016 Surface map at 20Z/2 pm showed strong 993 mb low pressure along the eastern KS/NE border with an occluding front extending through northern MO into southern IL. Another boundary/warm front was just south of Peoria and just north of BMI with some fog along and north of this boundary. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms were over central IL at mid afternoon mainly east of a Galesburg to St Louis line and tracking NNE. A narrow band of heavier rains with some thunder was along I-55 from Springfield to Bloomington. Meanwhile a dry slot with clearing skies was over central and southern MO and moving northeast toward SW IL. Temps ranged from 37F at Galesburg and Lacon where east winds persisted to 57F along highway 50 at Flora, Lawrenceville and Mount Carmel airports where se winds were veering SSE. Pressure gradient has weakened a bit during the day across central IL so ESE winds not quite as strong ranging from 10-20 mph and gusts of 20-30 mph at mid afternoon. The HRRR model has been doing fairly well with convection so far today and leaned on this model going into this evening. It has the showers and isolated thunderstorms ending over western CWA late this afternoon and in eastern IL during early/mid evening with most areas dry by 9 or 10 pm. SPC still have slight risk of severe storms this afternoon southeast of Terre Haute to Flora line where 15% risk of damaging wind gusts and 5% risk of tornadoes and large hail. Better threat of severe storms is over more unstable airmass in far southeast IL into KY and sw IN from I-64 south. Low pressure to track northeast to near Dubuque by 09Z/3 am and into southeast WI by sunrise Wed. A strong short wave/trof to push into the IL river valley between 09-12Z Wed (3-6 am Wed) and have slight chances of light rain or light snow later tonight. Lows late tonight to range from mid 30s over the IL river valley (33F at Galesburg) to the lower 40s near the Wabash river (42F at Lawrenceville). SE winds to turn SW by overnight and range from 8-16 mph overall tonight. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 233 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016 Tomorrow, the low will be pushing through the Great Lakes region with a trailing sfc trough that will rotate through northern IL. This sfc trough will also coincide with the 500mb trough that will mover through the area. The combination of these two features will bring a slight chance of light snow or rain to northwestern parts of the CWA Wed morning. By afternoon all pcpn will have moved off to the northeast, out of the CWA. Brief high pressure will move through the area after this weather system moves through, along with the pattern changing to a long wave trough pattern. This trough pattern will bring another sfc trough through the area Thursday night, but there will be a severe lack of moisture, so no pcpn is expected. Then dry weather will be expected through the rest of the week and into the the weekend. Temps will hover around normal through the rest of the week and then will warm to above normal levels for the weekend. At the end of the weekend and the beginning of next week a northwest flow pattern will setup over the area and looks like it may hang around for an extended period. This northwest flow will allow a series of clippers to move southeast through the Great Lakes area, Sunday night through Tuesday. For now, will just keep the slight chance of pcpn that the blended forecast has. Once the clippers begin to move through, colder air will be allowed to pour into the area and bring temps back to below normal. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016 Moisture trapped beneath a low level inversion, coupled with weak winds in the vicinity of an occluded frontal boundary, has resulted in widespread IFR stratus/fog. The occluded boundary is finally starting to head to the northeast, so conditions should improve briefly to VFR during the overnight hours. However, wrap around moisture on the back side of the departing storm system will drop CIGs back to MVFR Wednesday morning, which is where they should stay for the balance of the 06Z TAF valid time. Little or now snowfall is anticipated with this next area of low clouds. Light winds in the vicinity of the occluded boundary will become gusty from the southwest later tonight, and then eventually from the west. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Dense Fog Advisory until 3 AM CST Wednesday for ILZ027>031- 036>038-041>046-053>057. Dense Fog Advisory until 1 AM CST Wednesday for ILZ040-047>052- 061. && $$ UPDATE...BAK SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM...Auten AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1138 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016 .SHORT TERM /TODAY/... ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016 BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DIMINISHING BUT STILL ANTICIPATING BLOWING SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE ENHANCED MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW BAND IS QUICKLY FALLING APART ACROSS THE EAST...BUT EXPECT ANOTHER INCH POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 12Z OVER THE EAST. VISIBILITY WITHIN THE BAND HAS BEEN LESS THAN A HALF MILE AT TIMES...SO KEPT HEADLINES GOING THROUGH THE EXPIRATIONS TIME OF 12Z. HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SNOW BAND MOVING EAST. THE BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS COMBINED WITH THE HEAVY SNOW PACK OVER CENTRAL TO NORTHERN IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE SOME SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS THROUGH 18Z BEFORE WINDS SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT SNOW CHANCES GOING ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AS SOUNDINGS COOL AND REMAIN SATURATED WITHIN THE DENDRITIC LAYER. SO LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES LIKELY TO CONTINUE...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. OBVIOUSLY ANY ADDITIONAL FALLING SNOW WITH THE CURRENT SNOW PACK AND WINDS...VISIBILITY CONCERNS AND TRAVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN HAZARDOUS. THIS IS LIKELY TO BE HANDLED WITH A WINTER WX ADVISORY ONCE THE WARNINGS EXPIRE AT 12Z THIS MORNING. .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016 LONGER TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MEAN EASTERN TROF AND RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST. THROUGH THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK...A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL DROP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST PROVIDING THE BEST THREAT OF ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER. AS FOR TONIGHT IN IOWA...WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THERMAL TROF PUSHES EAST OF THE STATE. THIS IS ALSO IN ADVANCE OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY. THE BULK OF FORCING WITH THIS WAVE WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF IOWA AND MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED. AT MOST...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST INTO THURSDAY BUT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL. THE NEXT WAVE TO AFFECT THE STATE WILL TOP THE WESTERN RIDGE AND APPROACH LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. FORCING WILL BE A BIT MORE ROBUST ACROSS IOWA WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT OVERALL MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. THEREFORE...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PCPN IN NORTHERN IOWA ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES...OVERALL PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY MORE WITH WESTERN RIDGE STRENGTHENING ALLOWING EASTERN TROF TO DEEPEN. ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THIS DEEPENING TROF DRAGGING ARCTIC AIR FROM CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL US BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MUCH COLDER AIR IS ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY ALONG WITH SOME THREAT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE READINGS APPROACHING DENDRITIC GROWTH VALUES. TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT TRANSITIONAL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTING BACK AND FORTH THROUGH THE MID AND LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY DURING THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...03/18Z ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016 WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH 22Z AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE THROUGH 03Z. SOME VSBYS STILL AFFECTED BY BLSN BUT IN GENERAL THE WIND IS CAUSING MORE LOW LEVEL DRIFTING. REMAINING VSBYS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH 21Z. VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRISK WINDS AFT 04/12Z. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-BLACK HAWK-CASS-CLARKE-GRUNDY-JASPER-MADISON- MARSHALL-POLK-TAMA-UNION-WARREN. && $$ SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK LONG TERM...COGIL AVIATION...FAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
354 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016 .SHORT TERM /TODAY/... ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016 BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DIMINISHING BUT STILL ANTICIPATING BLOWING SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE ENHANCED MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW BAND IS QUICKLY FALLING APART ACROSS THE EAST...BUT EXPECT ANOTHER INCH POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 12Z OVER THE EAST. VISIBILITY WITHIN THE BAND HAS BEEN LESS THAN A HALF MILE AT TIMES...SO KEPT HEADLINES GOING THROUGH THE EXPIRATIONS TIME OF 12Z. HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SNOW BAND MOVING EAST. THE BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS COMBINED WITH THE HEAVY SNOW PACK OVER CENTRAL TO NORTHERN IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE SOME SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS THROUGH 18Z BEFORE WINDS SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT SNOW CHANCES GOING ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AS SOUNDINGS COOL AND REMAIN SATURATED WITHIN THE DENDRITIC LAYER. SO LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES LIKELY TO CONTINUE...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. OBVIOUSLY ANY ADDITIONAL FALLING SNOW WITH THE CURRENT SNOW PACK AND WINDS...VISIBILITY CONCERNS AND TRAVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN HAZARDOUS. THIS IS LIKELY TO BE HANDLED WITH A WINTER WX ADVISORY ONCE THE WARNINGS EXPIRE AT 12Z THIS MORNING. .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016 LONGER TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MEAN EASTERN TROF AND RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST. THROUGH THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK...A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL DROP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST PROVIDING THE BEST THREAT OF ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER. AS FOR TONIGHT IN IOWA...WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THERMAL TROF PUSHES EAST OF THE STATE. THIS IS ALSO IN ADVANCE OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY. THE BULK OF FORCING WITH THIS WAVE WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF IOWA AND MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED. AT MOST...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST INTO THURSDAY BUT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL. THE NEXT WAVE TO AFFECT THE STATE WILL TOP THE WESTERN RIDGE AND APPROACH LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. FORCING WILL BE A BIT MORE ROBUST ACROSS IOWA WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT OVERALL MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. THEREFORE...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PCPN IN NORTHERN IOWA ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES...OVERALL PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY MORE WITH WESTERN RIDGE STRENGTHENING ALLOWING EASTERN TROF TO DEEPEN. ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THIS DEEPENING TROF DRAGGING ARCTIC AIR FROM CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL US BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MUCH COLDER AIR IS ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY ALONG WITH SOME THREAT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE READINGS APPROACHING DENDRITIC GROWTH VALUES. TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT TRANSITIONAL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTING BACK AND FORTH THROUGH THE MID AND LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY DURING THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...03/06Z ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016 IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BETWEEN THE FOG...LOW CEILINGS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SNOW MOVES OUT AND WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDE. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXTENT TO WHICH CIGS MAY CLEAR OUT/RISE ON WEDNESDAY...AND BELIEVE AT LEAST MVFR CIGS WILL PROBABLY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-BLACK HAWK-CASS-CLARKE-GRUNDY-JASPER-MADISON- MARSHALL-POLK-TAMA-UNION-WARREN. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AUDUBON-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-DALLAS-GUTHRIE-HARDIN-STORY. BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR CALHOUN- CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-HAMILTON- HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-SAC-WEBSTER- WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT. && $$ SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK LONG TERM...COGIL AVIATION...LEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
238 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 238 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016 AS OF 3 AM CST...2 AM MST...CURRENT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT COMPARED TO WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLOUDY AS SOME STRATUS HAS SPREAD IN EAST OF HIGHWAY 25. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S BUT A COUPLE LOW SPOTS IN EAST COLORADO ARE REPORTING SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS ARE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. LATEST WSR-88D IMAGERY INDICATES NO PRECIPITATION. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS SPREADING OVER IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...NOW CENTERED JUST SOUTHEAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN. ALOFT...NORTHWEST FLOW HAS TAKEN HOLD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER IDAHO ACCORDING TO LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE ONLY HAZARDOUS WEATHER POSSIBLE IS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS TONIGHT FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. BEGINNING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES...FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTED COLD TEMPS TODAY WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FORECASTER RATIONALE. HOWEVER...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE A DIFFERENT STORY. MANY MEMBERS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGEST A RAPID AND SUBSTANTIAL WARM-UP COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S TO POTENTIALLY LOW 40S. THIS DOES NOT AGREE WITH THE WIDESPREAD SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFIELD THAT WILL BE AROUND FOR SEVERAL DAYS TO COME. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AN INVERSION WILL BE DIFFICULT TO BREAK... ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. THEREFORE...FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW GUIDANCE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH REGARDS TO LOW TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL CONCERNS...A VERY COLD NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER...CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD TANK WITH PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. COLDEST SPOTS WILL BE WHERE WINDS GO CALM...PARTICULARLY IN AREA LOW SPOTS. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN BUT AM CURRENTLY ON THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE SPECTRUM. WIND SPEEDS MAY NOT DROP AS MUCH AS NEEDED TO REALIZE FORECAST LOWS. HOWEVER...IF WIND SPEEDS REMAIN A LITTLE HIGHER AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL READINGS MAY STILL OCCUR. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF ON A WIND CHILL ADVISORY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES. IF ONE IS NEEDED...AN ADVISORY WOULD LIKELY COVER LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 27. THE PRIMARY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...ALBEIT LIGHT...ARRIVES WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES IN. IN ADDITION...FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND LIFT SUGGEST SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. ADDED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND MENTION OF FLURRIES. MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OVER NEBRASKA BUT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME MINOR (LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH) ACCUMULATIONS. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 153 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016 NEW MODEL DATA SHOWING THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN AS YESTERDAY. ON SATURDAY AREA WILL BE UNDER TEMPORARY SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF ANOTHER NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER MODELS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN YESTERDAY. PLUS A RATHER STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE AND UPPER JET SUPPORT ARE IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AN ADEQUATE SUPPLY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH NOT AS MUCH MOISTURE AT THE LOW LEVELS. MORE MODELS ARE PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF THAN YESTERDAY. AFTER CONFERRING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...DECIDED WOULD NOT ADD ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AND KEEP THE DRY CONDITIONS THE INIT GAVE ME. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS IT WILL BE FLURRIES AND CAN AFFORD TO WAIT A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE INSERTING ANYTHING. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE DRY. AS ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...IT DEVELOPS INTO A STRONG AND CLOSED OFF SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. AT THE SAME TIME...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS SETUP AND LATEST MODEL DATA SUPPORTS A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND LINGERING FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THAT COMBINED WITH A SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFIELD OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AND EXTENDING WELL TO THE NORTH...SUPPORTS KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING UP MUCH. AFTER COLLABORATION...DECIDED TO LOWER THE TEMPERATURES GIVEN TO ME BY THE CRH INIT. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR COMING IN BEHIND THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED MORE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 900 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016 KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 12KTS BY 08Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z WITH ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. FROM 17Z-21Z A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING SOME GUSTS NEAR 20KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG WITH SOME CLOUDS FLIRTING WITH MVFR CATEGORY. FROM 22Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WINDS FALL BELOW 11KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CLOUDS DISSIPATE LEAVING SKC CONDITIONS. KMCK...VFR/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 11Z AS WRAPAROUND CLOUDINESS MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST GUSTING AROUND 22KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE WITH GUSTS DISSIPATING BY 09Z. FROM 12Z-00Z MODELS HINTING AT IFR CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH WINDS FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10KTS. HAVE A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE IFR CIGS AND CANT RULE OUT VLIFR CIGS IF THE NAM MODEL IS CORRECT. HRRR HINTS AT THEM BUT KEEP THEM JUST WEST OF THE TERMINAL. AFTER 01Z JUST A FEW MID CLOUDS EARLY THEN SKC WITH WINDS FROM THE WEST AROUND 7KTS. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RRH LONG TERM...BULLER AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
157 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 137 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TAKING A NEGATIVE TILT AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES. THE STRONG CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT BASED ON VIS/IR SATELLITE DATA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. RADAR TRENDS SHOW A SMALL BAND OF SNOWFALL CONTINUING TO BRING LIGHT SNOW FOR SOME PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS...MAINLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...RADAR REFLECTIVITIES APPEAR TO BE TRENDING DOWNWARD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE NEAR TERM UP TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND NEW SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE TO LESSEN. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON COULD REACH UP TO AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW COULD OCCUR ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER UP TO 2 INCHES. RAP MODEL THETA LAPSE RATES/NEGATIVE EPV VALUES INDICATE AN AREA OF MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH SOME FRONTOGENESIS PRESENT ALONG THE SAME AXIS AS THE CURRENT RADAR TREND WITH THE SNOW BAND POSITIONED NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. A SNOW BAND MOVING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 ALONG HIGHWAY 283 COULD ALSO BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW UP TO AN INCH FOR NORTON AND HILL CITY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE LOW CENTER MOVES EAST ENOUGH TO END THE SNOW THREAT. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS IS THE BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY THREAT. STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OF 16-18 MB HAS BROUGHT STRONG WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AT TIMES...AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT HAVE THIS GRADIENT LESSENING FOR THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT MST (1 AM CST) TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES...DESPITE THERE BEING NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. UNLESS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY...TRAVEL IS NOT ADVISED. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD STABILIZE AFTER MIDNIGHT MST (1 AM CST) TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY END THE BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY THREAT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN BETWEEN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND THE MIDDLE TEENS. COLD TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH WIND GUSTS WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 10 ABOVE TO 10 BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 153 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016 NEW MODEL DATA SHOWING THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN AS YESTERDAY. ON SATURDAY AREA WILL BE UNDER TEMPORARY SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF ANOTHER NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER MODELS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN YESTERDAY. PLUS A RATHER STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE AND UPPER JET SUPPORT ARE IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AN ADEQUATE SUPPLY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH NOT AS MUCH MOISTURE AT THE LOW LEVELS. MORE MODELS ARE PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF THAN YESTERDAY. AFTER CONFERRING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...DECIDED WOULD NOT ADD ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AND KEEP THE DRY CONDITIONS THE INIT GAVE ME. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS IT WILL BE FLURRIES AND CAN AFFORD TO WAIT A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE INSERTING ANYTHING. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE DRY. AS ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...IT DEVELOPS INTO A STRONG AND CLOSED OFF SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. AT THE SAME TIME...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS SETUP AND LATEST MODEL DATA SUPPORTS A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND LINGERING FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THAT COMBINED WITH A SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFIELD OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AND EXTENDING WELL TO THE NORTH...SUPPORTS KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING UP MUCH. AFTER COLLABORATION...DECIDED TO LOWER THE TEMPERATURES GIVEN TO ME BY THE CRH INIT. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR COMING IN BEHIND THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED MORE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 900 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016 KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 12KTS BY 08Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z WITH ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. FROM 17Z-21Z A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING SOME GUSTS NEAR 20KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG WITH SOME CLOUDS FLIRTING WITH MVFR CATEGORY. FROM 22Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WINDS FALL BELOW 11KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CLOUDS DISSIPATE LEAVING SKC CONDITIONS. KMCK...VFR/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 11Z AS WRAPAROUND CLOUDINESS MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST GUSTING AROUND 22KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE WITH GUSTS DISSIPATING BY 09Z. FROM 12Z-00Z MODELS HINTING AT IFR CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH WINDS FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10KTS. HAVE A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE IFR CIGS AND CANT RULE OUT VLIFR CIGS IF THE NAM MODEL IS CORRECT. HRRR HINTS AT THEM BUT KEEP THEM JUST WEST OF THE TERMINAL. AFTER 01Z JUST A FEW MID CLOUDS EARLY THEN SKC WITH WINDS FROM THE WEST AROUND 7KTS. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MK LONG TERM...BULLER AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
905 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 510 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016 WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD WARNINGS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS BEFORE WINDS START TO SUBSIDE A BIT AND SNOW COME TO AN END. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 137 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TAKING A NEGATIVE TILT AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES. THE STRONG CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT BASED ON VIS/IR SATELLITE DATA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. RADAR TRENDS SHOW A SMALL BAND OF SNOWFALL CONTINUING TO BRING LIGHT SNOW FOR SOME PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS...MAINLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...RADAR REFLECTIVITIES APPEAR TO BE TRENDING DOWNWARD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE NEAR TERM UP TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND NEW SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE TO LESSEN. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON COULD REACH UP TO AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW COULD OCCUR ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER UP TO 2 INCHES. RAP MODEL THETA LAPSE RATES/NEGATIVE EPV VALUES INDICATE AN AREA OF MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH SOME FRONTOGENESIS PRESENT ALONG THE SAME AXIS AS THE CURRENT RADAR TREND WITH THE SNOW BAND POSITIONED NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. A SNOW BAND MOVING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 ALONG HIGHWAY 283 COULD ALSO BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW UP TO AN INCH FOR NORTON AND HILL CITY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE LOW CENTER MOVES EAST ENOUGH TO END THE SNOW THREAT. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS IS THE BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY THREAT. STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OF 16-18 MB HAS BROUGHT STRONG WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AT TIMES...AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT HAVE THIS GRADIENT LESSENING FOR THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT MST (1 AM CST) TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES...DESPITE THERE BEING NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. UNLESS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY...TRAVEL IS NOT ADVISED. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD STABILIZE AFTER MIDNIGHT MST (1 AM CST) TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY END THE BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY THREAT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN BETWEEN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND THE MIDDLE TEENS. COLD TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH WIND GUSTS WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 10 ABOVE TO 10 BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 240 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016 STRONG UPPER LOW TRANSITIONS EAST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LARGE SCALE RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN US RESULTING IN A SHARP N-NW FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN MAY SUPPORT QUICK SHOTS OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. OVERALL CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THESE PERIODS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH A PREDOMINANTLY DRY FORECAST. THIS IS DUE TO EITHER DEEPER DRY AIR MASS BETWEEN CLIPPERS OR LACK OF CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS. TEMPERATURES ARE PARTICULARLY TRICKY AS THIS PATTERN WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT A TREND TOWARDS SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER WITH THE ONGOING SNOW EVENT AND AT LEAST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA RECEIVING 10" OR MORE OF SNOW HIGH TEMPERATURES IN PARTICULAR ARE LIKELY GOING TO BE LOWER THAN MODELS INDICATE. I TRENDED ALL HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN AND UNDERCUT ALL GUIDANCE THROUGH THESE PERIODS. SNOW WILL ALSO AID IN RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE NIGHT...AND ASSUMING WINDS REMAIN LIGHT (TO PREVENT LOW LEVEL MIXING) MODELS MAY HAVE A WARM BIAS ON LOWS. REGARDING WIND CHILLS WED NIGHT/THU MORNING...THE AIR MASS AND ORIENTATION OF THE WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT MIGHT ACTUALLY LEAD TO MORE MIXING WHICH COULD OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF SNOW/CLEARING SKIES AND RESULTING WIND CHILLS MAY NOT ACTUALLY REACH -15F (ADVISORY). IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR -10 TO -20F WIND CHILLS...BUT I THINK THIS MAY BE A LOCALIZED THREAT. WITH ONGOING HAZARDS THERE ARE NO CURRENT PLANS FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THIS PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 900 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016 KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 12KTS BY 08Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z WITH ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. FROM 17Z-21Z A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING SOME GUSTS NEAR 20KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG WITH SOME CLOUDS FLIRTING WITH MVFR CATEGORY. FROM 22Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WINDS FALL BELOW 11KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CLOUDS DISSIPATE LEAVING SKC CONDITIONS. KMCK...VFR/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 11Z AS WRAPAROUND CLOUDINESS MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST GUSTING AROUND 22KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE WITH GUSTS DISSIPATING BY 09Z. FROM 12Z-00Z MODELS HINTING AT IFR CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH WINDS FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10KTS. HAVE A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE IFR CIGS AND CANT RULE OUT VLIFR CIGS IF THE NAM MODEL IS CORRECT. HRRR HINTS AT THEM BUT KEEP THEM JUST WEST OF THE TERMINAL. AFTER 01Z JUST A FEW MID CLOUDS EARLY THEN SKC WITH WINDS FROM THE WEST AROUND 7KTS. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...99 SHORT TERM...MK LONG TERM...DR AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
305 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 305 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016 CLOUDS QUICKLY CLEARED OUT BEHIND THE FRONT EARLIER TODAY AS DRY AIR FILTERED INTO THE REGION. THANKS TO PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...HIGHS ARE TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL TAKE A TUMBLE TO NEAR FREEZING OR JUST BELOW...EVEN WITH LLVL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE LLVL MOISTURE WILL GET TRAPPED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING PERIOD BEFORE CLEARING OUT SOMETIME IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST...USHERING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWING TOMORROW WITH HIGHS ONLY NIPPING AT THE 40 DEGREE MARK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE COMMONWEALTH THURSDAY EVENING MAKING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 20 DEGREES. A SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 500 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016 THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. THEY ALL STILL SHIFT THE CURRENT INBOUND TROUGH EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF BRIEF RIDGING TO FOLLOW INTO SATURDAY. THEY ARE NOW BETTER ALIGNED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND ALONG THE GULF COAST DURING THE HEART OF THE WEEKEND. WITH THIS FEATURE...THE GFS IS STILL SLIGHTLY DEEPER AND FASTER THAN THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELS. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO MOSTLY SEPARATED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM IN ALL MODELS. THIS WAVE GOES BY TO THE SOUTH OF KENTUCKY AND DEEPENS IN THE GFS AND ECMWF AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A DEEPER TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...CARVING OUT A NEARLY CLOSED LOW JUST TO OUR WEST BY MONDAY MORNING. WITH PRETTY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THIS DEVELOPMENT THEN ROLLS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER MONDAY CRASHING OUR HEIGHTS AND POTENTIALLY SETTING UP AS A VERY DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW ABOVE KENTUCKY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT WILL HELP TO SLOWLY BUILD SOME CONFIDENCE IN THIS MORE SIGNIFICANT EVOLUTION AS WELL AS A BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MODERATING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HELPING TO DRY OUT THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WEAK WEATHER MAKER PASSES TO OUR SOUTH AND OUR NEXT ONE STARTS TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THINGS WILL START TO GET INTERESTING ON MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NORTHWEST SYSTEM STARTS TO DEEPEN AND SPREAD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVELS WOULD EXPECT TO SEE THIS COOL THE COLUMN OVER KENTUCKY AND CHANGE ANY LIGHT PCPN OVER TO SNOW BY TUESDAY MORNING. UNDER THIS SCENARIO...BASED ON A COMBINATION OF THE GFS AND ECMWF...WE WOULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE IN THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. CURRENTLY NEITHER MODEL SOLUTION LOOKS ALL TOO REALISTIC AS ANY SFC DEVELOPMENT WOULD TEND TO FAVOR A JUMP TO THE COAST OR JUST SPINNING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE. LOOK FOR FURTHER REFINEMENT AND DEFINITION FOR THIS SYSTEM FROM THE MODELS WITH TIME. FOR NOW... WILL PUSH MID RANGE CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHILE ALSO INTRODUCING THE SYSTEM IN THE HWO AS ONE THAT HAS POTENTIAL TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA. ADJUSTED THE GRIDS FROM THE CR INIT MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR SMALL TO MODERATE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES FOR LOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. ALSO TWEAKED THE POP GRIDS LATER IN THE PERIOD TO REFLECT SLOWLY GROWING CONFIDENCE IN A COMPLEX WINTRY FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 100 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016 THE RAIN...ALONG WITH MOST OF THE CLOUDS HAVE EXITED THE REGION TO THE EAST AS DRIER AIR QUICKLY MOVED IN. THIS HAS ALLOWED CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS ALL TAF SITES WITH SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES BY...POSSIBLY PRODUCING A FEW FLURRIES. CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KT POSSIBLE. BY TONIGHT...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE...ALLOWING FOR WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JVM LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...JVM
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 300 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016 .SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)... Issued at 245 PM EST Wed Feb 3 2016 Main forecast concerns in the short term are sprinkles/clouds this evening and temperatures. Overall, relatively benign weather in the short term. Stratus deck upstream associated with the advancing upper trough axis will swing through southern Indiana and central Kentucky late this afternoon and into the evening hours. 12z ILX sounding and HRRR soundings for the area this evening show this stratus to be about 50 to maybe 100 mb thick and with weak lift present this evening, there could be a few sprinkles across southern Indiana and north central Kentucky. HRRR simulated reflectivity has been consistent showing a thin band over the area between 4 and 10p, so have maintained slight chance of sprinkles in the forecast. Winds will remain gusty to near 20 to perhaps 25 mph at times through the evening as well with temperatures falling into the mid/upper 30s. Surface high pressure moves across the area Thursday and Thursday night, setting up a cool but dry day. Plan on highs in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees. We`ll have some morning stratus around but as the high advances east, this should erode and push east giving way to some sun by afternoon. Thursday night lows look to fall into the mid 20s with mostly clear skies and lighter winds. .LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)... Issued at 250 PM EST Wed Feb 3 2016 The main forecast concern in the long term period is precipitation chances and temperatures next week. Friday through the weekend the region will be under the influence of high pressure at the surface and zonal flow aloft. A couple weather systems look to pass well south and north of the area, but southern Indiana and central Kentucky will generally see seasonal temperatures and dry conditions. By late Sunday night into Monday, a surface low and anomalously deep upper trough looks to swing through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. This will spill colder air down into the area and chances for precipitation. Depending on temperatures, rain may mix with or changeover to snow Monday. As the upper trough hangs overhead and more cold air arrives Monday night and Tuesday, temperatures would be cold enough to support all snow. The GFS 850 mb temperatures are considerably colder than the ECMWF and GEM 3.12z solutions. A model consensus trended downward from the previous forecast, with highs Tuesday and Wednesday in the mid 20s to low 30s and morning temperatures in the teens. This may trend further down if the GFS solutions end up verifying. Precipitation chances were brought up into the 30 to 50 percent range Monday through Wednesday. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)... Updated at 1217 PM EST Wed Feb 3 2016 Currently, the TAF sites are in the dry slot in the post frontal wake. Mainly clear skies were noted and VFR conditions are expected through the afternoon hours. Main forecast issue will be surface winds. Gusty southwest winds at 15-20kts and gusts up 25 kts at KBWG and up to 30-35kts at KSDF/KLEX will be possible...resulting in cross winds on the parallel runways at KSDF. Shield of low clouds to the northwest will continue to move southeastward and into KSDF/KBWG by 03/21-22Z and then into KLEX by 04/00Z or so. Ceilings this evening look to remain in the VFR category with heights around 5Kft AGL. Surface winds will decrease with the arrival of the lower cloudiness in the 03/21-22Z time frame. We expect winds to back to the west and speeds should decrease into the 8-12kt range and then into the 6-8kt range for the overnight period. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Short Term........ZT Long Term.........ZT Aviation..........MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1152 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016 .AVIATION... DRIER AIR IS MAKING A PUSH THROUGH SE TX AND SW LA THIS EVE AND LOOKS TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH S-CNTRL LA. ARA THIS IS IN THE BAND OF STORMS MOVING OUT OF THE GULF AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONT INTO THE OVRNGHT HRS. ARA SHLD CLR TWRDS SR. LFT IS ON THE EDGE AND LOOKS TO IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. && K. KUYPER .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/ DISCUSSION... RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG THE VERY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER ACADIANA INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2-3 INCHES FROM ST. LANDRY...LAFAYETTE...AND VERMILION PARISHES SO FAR...WITH ANOTHER 2-3 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS. THE CURRENT TRENDS...AND 00Z NAM12 & LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE CONTINUED SLOWING...ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AREA SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER ACADIANA THROUGH 4 AM. ADJUSTED POPS AND SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY IN THE FORECAST. DML PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 716 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/ DISCUSSION... TOR WATCH #10 ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM...AS THREAT HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...FRONTAL PROGRESSION HAS SLOWED UP A BIT...WITH THE SHRA/TSRA NOW SHOWING SOME TRAINING TENDENCIES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO SC LA. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ONLY SHOWING ABOUT 1 INCH WITH ISO AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES IN ST LANDRY PARISH SO FAR...BUT MAY PICK UP ANOTHER ISOLATED 1-2 INCHES BEFORE ENDING FROM W TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS...ADJUSTED EVENING AND EARLY MORNING POPS A BIT...BUT STILL EXPECTED TO SEE FASTER PROGRESSION AFTER MIDNIGHT ONCE THE UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES FURTHER EAST WITH THE COLD SFC HIGH BUILDING SE WITH CONTINUED COOLER AND DRIER AIR. DML PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/ AVIATION...A COLD FRONT NOW APPROACHING ACADIANA WILL MAINTAIN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KEEPING TEMPO GROUPS FOR ARA AND LFT FOR IFR/MVFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM RAIN AND BR. PRECIP HAS ENDED AT AEX...LCH AND BPT. CEILINGS GENERALLY WITHIN VFR AT THESE TERMINALS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING...AND WILL BE CLEARING ACADIANA AFTER MIDNIGHT. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/ DISCUSSION... LEADING EDGE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM/DRY LINE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM JUST EAST OF ESLER FIELD TO CAMERON...AND MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW FOR ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN ACADIANA...TO WORK WITH SOME DECENT INSTABILITY (TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70F) TO BECOME SURFACE BASED AND ON THE STRONG SIDE...ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH HEIGHT OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LESSENING THE SHEAR. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WORK THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY GRADUALLY ENDING AS IT PASSES. SECONDARY SURGE OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO MOVE DOWN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...A LIGHT FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 CORRIDOR. A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO FORM OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON LATE FRIDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE GULF DURING THE WEEKEND. STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH TRENDS SEEM TO BE ON THE DRIER SIDE AND IF THIS CONTINUES...MAY BE ABLE TO TAKE OUT POPS ALTHOUGH AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND...WHICH WOULD BE GOOD NEWS FOR MARDI GRAS ACTIVITIES. A COOL BUT DRY FORECAST IS THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR BOTH LUNDI GRAS AND MARDI GRAS. RUA MARINE... FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD AIR MASS BEGINS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR DURING THIS TIME. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY. RUA && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 44 59 34 55 / 40 0 0 0 LCH 47 63 37 57 / 40 0 0 0 LFT 51 64 38 56 / 70 10 0 0 BPT 46 63 37 58 / 20 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ033-043>045- 052>055. TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
1031 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016 .UPDATE... A SHORT TERM HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WHERE ANY LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS TEMPORARILY STALL AND TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO EXPERIENCE HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS FROM EAST OF LAFAYETTE AND NEAR MORGAN CITY TO NEAR BATON ROUGE AND SOME OF THE RIVER PARISHES SOUTHEAST OF BATON ROUGE. THE COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE THE MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL START TO ACCELERATE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST. WHILE THERE HAS STILL BEEN NO REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORECAST AREA...THE MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND SLIGHT INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO SUPPORT THE THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH BOWING THUNDERSTORM SEGMENTS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. 22/TD && .MARINE... HAD TO REISSUE A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUNDS AND COASTAL WATERS NEAR SOUTHWEST PASS AND OUT 20 NAUTICAL MILES DUE TO THE PERSISTENCE OF FOG OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI SOUND /NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI COAST/ AND RECENT DEVELOPMENT NEAR LOWER PLAQUEMINES PARISH. 22/TD && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 803 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/ UPDATE... AREA RADARS INDICATED MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND A FEW OCCASIONALLY POTENT THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING ACROSS AREAS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TO THE FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IN EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA NORTHWEST OF BATON ROUGE INTO FAR SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION IS STILL VALID WITH REGARDS TO TRENDS AND WEATHER CONCERNS TONIGHT...SO THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO DELAY SLIGHTLY THE ONSET OF HIGHER CHANCES/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE NEW TORNADO WATCH 12 AREA WHICH EXTENDS NORTH FROM AREAS JUST NORTH OF METRO BATON ROUGE AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN INTO MISSISSIPPI. HOWEVER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK CANNOT BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE INCLUDING BATON ROUGE THROUGH ABOUT 10 PM...AND SOUTHSHORE METRO NEW ORLEANS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TO SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND WRF/S APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AND INDICATING A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING EAST NEAR I-55 AROUND MIDNIGHT...NORTH AND SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN MIDNIGHT TO 3 AM...AND THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST 1 OR 2 AM TO ABOUT 5 AM. THE MAIN FEATURES ARE SUPPORTING SOME SEVERE RISK INTO THE NIGHT ARE THE STILL WARM AND HUMID SURFACE...LIMITED MARINE LAYER STABILIZATION...STRONG SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND A SERIES OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA THAT COULD STILL HELP TO ENERGIZE BOTH INDIVIDUAL AND LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS. 22/TD MARINE... CONDITIONS RANGE FROM SOLID SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION /SCEC/ TO BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ WITH 15 TO 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EXTENDED SCEC THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT ACROSS ALL WATERS...AND MARINERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. 22/TD DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE....ORANGE. DEPLOYED...NONE. ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MONITORING DENSE FOG TRENDS ALONG SOME NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS. SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT. DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/ SOUNDING DISCUSSION... SUCCESSFUL BALLOON LAUNCH ON A GUSTY, MILD AND HUMID EVENING. PRECIP FREE AT LEAST HELPED BALLOON REACH DESIRED ASCENSION RATE DESPITE STRONG SSW-SW WINDS FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 41000 FT. SLIGHT DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR IN PLACE FOR KLIX THROUGHOUT THE SOUNDING. THE CONDITIONS WERE SIMILAR TO THE 18Z SOUNDING REQUESTED BUT WERE MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE. 00Z LAUNCH HAD MOIST LOW LEVELS WITH SEVERAL LAYERS OF CLOUD COVER IN THE AREA. REFLECTED IN SOUNDING...1700 FT, 8500 FT AND 24800 FT. PRECIP WATER 1.49 INCHES. LIFTED INDEX REPORTING -6. CAPE IS AT 856 J/KG AND DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS REACHED 79F. HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WITH THIS SETUP. EARLIER STORMS THAT DEVELOPED NEAR KLIX AND MOVED NORTHWARD SHOWED ROTATION WHICH RESULTED IN A TORNADO WATCH ISSUED BY SPC FOR THE KLIX FORECAST AREA. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/ SHORT TERM...SO FAR SO GOOD AS STORMS HAVE BEEN BEHAVING OVER OUR CWA BUT A FEW STORMS HAVE LED TO DAMAGE IN EAST CENTRAL MS THIS AFTERNOON FROM TORNADOES. TORNADO WATCH 10 REMAINS IN EFFECT TILL 7PM TONIGHT. MAIN CONCERN IS THE SEVERE THREAT TODAY AND TONIGHT. CURRENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WRN HALF OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NE. OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA FROM NOW THROUGH 03Z WILL BE THE BEST ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE FOR THESE CELLS TO BECOME SEVERE AND POSE A DECENT TORNADO RISK. BEST LL CONVERGENCE...HIGHEST INSTABILITY...GOOD LL SHEAR...AND INCREASING LIFT ALOFT WILL LINE UP DURING THIS TIME. AFTER THAT EXPECTED A LINE OF SHRA AND TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA. BETTER FORCING...DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND THE COLD FRONT COULD LEAD TO SQUALLINE DEVELOPING WITH A FEW STORMS SEVERE MAINLY POSING A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ALSO CAN NOT RULE OUT QLCS TYPE TORNADIC ACTIVITY WITH THIS LINE. SOMETHING ELSE THAT HASNT REALLY BEEN TALKED MUCH ABOUT IS POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN. THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM WEST OF MCB TO NEAR LFT IS NOT MOVING AND STORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG THIS BNDRY. WITH AN ALREADY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT THIS COULD EASILY DROP A FEW INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH THE EVNG AND IF SITTING OVER THE RIGHT PLACES COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCAL FLASH FLOODING ISSUES. TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THU BUT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY WED. /CAB/ LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST CONTINUES TO BE RATHER DIFFICULT WITH VERY LOW CONFIDENCE. MDL CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED. THE ONLY THING THAT LOOKS LIKELY TO OCCUR IS THAT TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MARDI GRAS. AS FOR RAIN CHANCES LATEST THINKING IS THAT WE COULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY BUT WILL STILL HOLD ONTO SMALL RAIN CHANCES FOR SUN AS A S/W-CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME RAIN FOR SUNDAY. /CAB/ AVIATION...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT STRONG TO STORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND EXPECT PERIODS OF LIFR WITH HEAVY STORMS. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE BEEN ELEVATED AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE. A WINDS SHIFT OVERNIGHT TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER ON THIS EVENING. THE CENTRAL PORTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND FOR THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST BY DAYBREAK. WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE ELEVATED FROM THE NORTHWEST. 13/MH MARINE...FOG HAS BEEN AN ISSUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE MS RIVER AND EVEN THOUGH IT HAS IMPROVED SOME EXPECT SEA FOG TO SET BACK IN FOR A SHORT TIME THIS EVNG IN THOSE SAME PLACES. ONCE MORE RAIN AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES FOG SHOULD IMPROVE. GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT REMAINS TIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS BUT SHOULD RELAX SOME AS WE APPROACH MIDNIGHT. BY WED MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS BUT WINDS WILL NOT QUITE RESPOND UNTIL MUCH DRIER AIR AND CAA TAKES PLACE WED NIGHT. AS A RESULT...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BEGINNING WED EVNG AND PERSISTING THROUGH FRI MORNING. /CAB/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 51 62 37 53 / 100 10 10 0 BTR 52 64 39 55 / 90 10 10 0 ASD 57 64 42 56 / 90 20 10 0 MSY 57 64 45 55 / 90 20 10 0 GPT 59 64 43 56 / 100 30 10 0 PQL 60 65 44 56 / 100 40 10 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ532-536-538- 552-555. MS...NONE. GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ536-538-552- 555. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
321 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 359 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016 12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW POTENT SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD INTO THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH BAND OF HEAVY PCPN IN THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT EXTENDING FM NEBRASKA INTO WI SHIFTING N INTO THE SRN CWA AS DYNAMIC FORCING/H85-7 FGEN/UPR DVGC IN LEFT EXIT OF SUPPORTING H3 JET STREAK AND RIGHT ENTRANCE OF ANOTHER JET STREAK OVER SE CANADA IS FINALLY OVERCOMING DRY AIR SHOWN BTWN H85-7 ON THE LOCAL 12Z RAOBS. 00Z-12Z 12HR H5 HGT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WERE AS GREAT AS 200M AT DODGE CITY KS...AND THE ACCOMPANYING STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING HAS CAUSED SOME LTNG ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS AS FAR N AS SCENTRAL WI. SOME LOCATIONS IN WI HAVE SEEN SN FALL AT THE RATE OF 2 INCHES/HR THIS AFTN. DRY SLOTTING ON THE ACYC SIDE OF THE UPR LO TRACK IS PUSHING INTO SRN MN/WI. THIS UPR LO APPEARS TO BE TRACKING FARTHER W THAN EXPECTED. FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS ON ONGOING HEADLINES ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG VIGOROUS SHRTWV AND IMPACT OF DRY SLOTTING ON SN TOTALS/MIX WITH FZDZ. LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT...SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD TOWARD THE UPR LKS IS FCST TO WEAKEN A BIT AS IT REACHES NW WI AT 12Z WED. AREA OF ENHANCED UPR DVGC/H85-7 FGEN OVER CCB AND UNDER SHARP DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWV WL BRING A PERIOD OF SOME MDT/HEAVY SN TO MAINLY THE E 2/3 OF THE CWA THIS EVNG. H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FCST UP TO 4 G/KG OVER THE SE CWA WL ALLOW ABOUT 6 INCHES OF WET SN TO FALL OVER THE SE CWA BEFORE DRY SLOTTING ON THE ERN FLANK OF APRCHG H5-7 LO CAUSES THE SN TO DIMINISH AS EARLY AS LATE EVNG-MIDNGT AT MENOMINEE. ALTHOUGH THE SPECIFIC HUMIDITY IS FCST TO BE LOWER OVER THE W /ABOUT 2 G/KG/...FCST SN/WATER RATIOS FCST AS HI AS 20-25:1 THIS EVNG AND MORE PROLONGED DEEPER MSTR AWAY FM MID LVL DRY SLOTTING WL ALLOW SIMILAR OVERNGT SN TOTALS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR W NEAR THE PORCUPINE MTNS...WHERE A MORE UPSLOPE CYC NNE FLOW WL BE THE RULE OVERNGT AND ADD SOME LK ENHANCEMENT WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR - 10C. SINCE THE KEWEENAW WL BE IMPACTED BY THIS MORE PERSISTENT DEEPER RH AND THE LATEST WPC SN FCST SHOWS A MAXIMUM OVER THE WRN CWA WITH SHIFT OF THE TRACK OF THE UPR LO TO THE W...OPTED TO UPGRADE ADVY FOR THAT AREA TO A WARNING. THE 12Z NAM IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DRY SLOTTING...SHOWING SOME MID LVL DRYING IMPACTING THE AREA FM IRON RIVER TO THE HURON MTNS OVERNGT. ALTHOUGH THE SHRTWV IS FCST TO WEAKEN A BIT OVERNGT...CURRENT STLT TRENDS SUPPORT MORE EXTENSIVE MID LVL DRY SLOTTING AND EXPANDING POTENTIAL MIX WITH FZDZ FARTHER TO THE W TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE SE HALF. ALTHOUGH THE DISTURBANCE WL BE WEAKENING A BIT...NE H925 WINDS FCST AS HI AS 35-40KTS WL ALLOW FOR BLSN...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS NEAR LK SUP. WED...BULK OF THE LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AREA OF DEEPER MID LVL MSTR WRAPPING BACK THRU THE CWA UNDER TRACK OF OPENING SHRTWV LIFTING TO THE NE AND ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC. SO AFTER SOME REDUCED POPS IN THE MRNG/MIX WITH FREEZING DZ...BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE HI LIKELY RANGE FOR MORE SN WITH DEEPER MSTR EXPANDING BACK INTO THE DGZ. ALTHOUGH SOME LES WL PERSIST OVER THE W IN THE AFTN WITH CYC NNW FLOW OF COLDER AIR DROPPING H85 TEMPS TO NEAR -15C BY 00Z THU...ARRIVAL OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IN THE WAKE OF PASSING SHRTWV SHOULD RESULT IN DIMINISHING PCPN. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 414 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016 WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST QUEBEC WEDNESDAY EVENING WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH AXIS LINGER ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH AXIS LINGERING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP 850MB TEMPS AROUND -14C TO -15C. THE COMBINATION OF DELTA T VALUES AROUND 17C TO 18C ALONG WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP AN ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MAINLY FOR NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.P. THIS WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO SLOWLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY OVER THE WEST WHILE THE EAST CONTINUES TO LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL DROP FROM 6-7KFT IN THE EVENING OVER THE WEST TO AROUND 3 TO 4KFT OVERNIGHT...AGAIN POINTING TOWARD THE DIMINISHING TREND. OVER THE EAST HALF...INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL STAY AROUND 6-7KFT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A LARGE PORTION OF THE MOIST LAYER WILL BE IN THE DGZ...WHICH WILL HELP TO SUPPORT HIGHER SNOWFALL RATIOS AROUND 19:1 TO 22:1 ALONG WITH ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES FOR THE NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING AS A WEAK AND VERY BRIEF SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT IT WILL BE VERY BRIEF AS ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL 500MB SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH ALONG WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING AROUND -14C TO -15C WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO KICK UP AGAIN. THIS TIME THE MAIN AREA OF FOCUS WOULD BE MAINLY ALONG THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AS WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO JUMP UP TO AROUND 6-8KFT AS THE WAVE SLIDES THROUGH WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TOTALS ARE EXPECTED AS THE WAVE IS SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA QUICKLY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE KEWEENAW AND EASTERN AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR COULD SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL HELP PEG ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO WESTERN U.P./KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND POSSIBLY OVER EASTERN AREAS...MAINLY CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE. MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO BE FAIRLY SHALLOW THROUGH THE DAY SO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS INVERSION HEIGHTS AND MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN BELOW 5KFT. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR INCREASED MOISTURE WITH 850MB TEMPS REMAINING AROUND -14C TO -15C. THIS WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG WITH LIGHT SYSTEM SNOW TO OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA. RIGHT NOW THE FAVORED LAKE ENHANCEMENT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD OCCUR FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS...BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE WIND FIELDS. DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A MAJOR LAKE EFFECT EVENT AT THIS TIME. SUNDAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED...BOTH THE EC AND GFS ARE SHOWING A CLIPPER SYSTEM SLIDING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS WOULD END UP BRINGING WIDESPREAD SYSTEM SNOW ACROSS THE U.P. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE THE LATEST GFS/EC MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT...PREVIOUS MODEL RUN COMPARISONS SHOW THAT THERE HAS BEEN SOME DISAGREEMENTS FROM RUN TO RUN. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT GET INTO THE SPECIFICS THIS FAR OUT. THE TREND WOULD BE FOR THE CLIPPER SYSTEM TO SLIDE THROUGH DURING THAT TIME FRAME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1253 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016 EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WED AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NE...CREATING BLSN AT TIMES. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE SOME FZDZ AT SAW FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT INTO WED WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER VSBYS...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE IFR/LIFR RANGE EVEN IF THIS OCCURS. EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT WED EVENING TO MVFR AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND SFC RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 414 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016 WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS LOW PRES TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EVENTUALLY CROSSING FAR NORTHERN LOWER MI LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND ADJACENT WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...SO GALE WARNING REMAINS OVER THAT AREA FOR LATE EVENING THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY...THE NEXT PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH WINDS OF 20-30KT...STRONGEST OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WIND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001>007-009-084-085. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ013- 014. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ010>012. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ263-264. LAKE MICHIGAN... GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LMZ248-250. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...JLB MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1042 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016 .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE ISOLD LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE FRONT RANGE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HRS BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE. LOOKING AT MTN TOP OBSCD AND SOME LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE NC MTNS TODAY BUT TERMINAL TAF SITES WILL NOT BE IMPACTED. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT AND FRESH SNOWPACK MEANS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS/VIS RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT. MIXED SIGNALS FROM THE MODELS AT LVS SO DECIDED TO HOLD OF IN PLACING RESTRICTIONS IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL RELOOK FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ISSUANCE. FMN LATE TONIGHT IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY BUT LEFT IT OUT AT THIS TIME. 50 && .PREV DISCUSSION...310 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016... .SYNOPSIS... SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TO THE TEXAS BORDER SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND EXTEND INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST TONIGHT. ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE LIGHT. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. A DRY BUT COLDER THAN NORMAL PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON ANY SIGNIFICANT STORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL REINFORCE COLD AIR OVER THE STATE AND MAY BRING ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION TO THE NORTH AT TIMES. BY NEXT TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO WARMER THAN AVERAGE VALUES. && .DISCUSSION... LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES AT KCQC...KSAF AND KAXX AT THIS TIME...BUT SHORT TERM MODELS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THIS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL ALLOW THE WINTER WEATHER TO RUN UNTIL IT/S EXPIRATION AT 5 AM. RUC13 AND HRRR INDICATE SOME LIGHT SNOW REDEVELOPING OVER THE NRN MTS AND SPREADING INTO THE FAR NE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT NOT MUCH ACCUMULATING AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT TRACK OVER THE REGION. DEW POINTS CRATER TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR LOWS TO FALL TO 15 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WHICH WAS TO BE MUCH STRONGER FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY IS NOW A FASTER MOVING TROUGH...AND AS A RESULT MUCH DRIER. TRIMMED POPS BACK BUT DIDN/T GO QUITE AS FAR AS GUIDANCE...WOULD LIKE TO SEE IF MODELS ESTABLISH THIS AS A TREND TO BOOST CONFIDENCE BEFORE CUTTING BACK EVEN MORE. SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS ARE ABSENT FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH BRING COLD FRONTS AND BRISK WINDS TO REINFORCE THE BELOW AVERAGE COLD...AS WELL AS MEAGER SNOWFALL TO THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST. SOME RELIEF INDICATED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN UNDER AN OVERALL DRY WEATHER PATTERN. && .FIRE WEATHER... COLD TEMPERATURES WILL START THE DAY...AND AS UPSLOPE FLOW DIMINISHES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...SO WILL THE SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND EAST CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THUS...THE CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL BE STEADILY DECREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY JUST THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OBSERVING LIGHT SNOWFALL. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH...IF ANY...FROM YESTERDAYS READINGS...STAYING WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST BREEZES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR A RELATIVELY STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A SWATH OF 30-40 MPH WINDS AT THE 10000FT LEVEL. THESE BRISK WINDS WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN A FAIR VENTILATION CATEGORY...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AND THE FAR WESTERN BORDER OF NM. BY TONIGHT...MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SOME SNOW FLURRIES WILL LINGER IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE BITTERLY COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DUE TO PLUMMETING DEWPOINTS...LESS CLOUD COVER...AND LIGHTER WINDS. FOR THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR TO WARM 3 TO 12 DEGREES AS THE FLOW ALOFT TEMPORARILY SHIFTS MORE WESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW PRESSURE HEIGHTS TO RISE AMIDST THE DRY ATMOSPHERE. THESE RISING TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH THE VERY LOW DEWPOINTS WILL ACTUALLY CARRY THE MINIMUM RH TO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE IN MUCH OF CENTRAL TO EASTERN NM THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS AND EASTWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF EAST CENTRAL NM. OUTSIDE OF THESE BREEZY AREAS... VENTILATION WILL SUFFER DUE TO POOR MIXING. FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL WORKING TO FIND THE CONSENSUS FOR FRIDAYS WEATHER. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE NEXT PERTURBATION ALOFT WILL APPROACH NM IN A WEAKER AND DRIER STATE THAN WAS ADVERTISED YESTERDAY AND THE DAY BEFORE. IT CERTAINLY APPEAR INEVITABLE THAT COOLER AIR WILL STUNT THE WARMING TREND...BUT ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY BE ON THE MEAGER SIDE WITH THIS MORNINGS FORECAST ONLY INCLUDING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES MORE ON SATURDAY...ACTUALLY RISING WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY...SO JUST AS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES WARM CLOSE TO NORMAL...THE EAST WILL BE SET BACK SEVERAL DEGREES. IT NOW APPEARS THE POLAR VORTEX WILL STEP EASTWARD OF THE HIGH PLAINS...AND CONSEQUENTLY THIS WOULD SPELL A WARMING TREND FOR NM NEXT WEEK. 52 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
440 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016 .AVIATION... 12Z TAF CYCLE SOME LIGHT SNOW IS CONTINUING OVER PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND TOWARD THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF THE STATE. SOME TEMPORARY MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE COMMON IN THESE AREAS THROUGH 03/1600UTC...WITH SNOW DWINDLING TO JUST THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THEREAFTER. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT OVER THE NORTHERN PEAKS OF NEW MEXICO...BUT SOME OCCASIONAL OBSCURATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL PEAKS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TODAY. CLOUDS WILL THIN MORE INTO TONIGHT WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES OVER THE NORTHERN PEAKS AFTER DARK. SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT WILL BE COMMON FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF NEW MEXICO TO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TODAY. 52 && .PREV DISCUSSION...310 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016... .SYNOPSIS... SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TO THE TEXAS BORDER SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND EXTEND INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST TONIGHT. ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE LIGHT. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. A DRY BUT COLDER THAN NORMAL PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON ANY SIGNIFICANT STORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL REINFORCE COLD AIR OVER THE STATE AND MAY BRING ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION TO THE NORTH AT TIMES. BY NEXT TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO WARMER THAN AVERAGE VALUES. && .DISCUSSION... LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES AT KCQC...KSAF AND KAXX AT THIS TIME...BUT SHORT TERM MODELS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THIS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL ALLOW THE WINTER WEATHER TO RUN UNTIL IT/S EXPIRATION AT 5 AM. RUC13 AND HRRR INDICATE SOME LIGHT SNOW REDEVELOPING OVER THE NRN MTS AND SPREADING INTO THE FAR NE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT NOT MUCH ACCUMULATING AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT TRACK OVER THE REGION. DEW POINTS CRATER TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR LOWS TO FALL TO 15 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WHICH WAS TO BE MUCH STRONGER FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY IS NOW A FASTER MOVING TROUGH...AND AS A RESULT MUCH DRIER. TRIMMED POPS BACK BUT DIDN/T GO QUITE AS FAR AS GUIDANCE...WOULD LIKE TO SEE IF MODELS ESTABLISH THIS AS A TREND TO BOOST CONFIDENCE BEFORE CUTTING BACK EVEN MORE. SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS ARE ABSENT FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH BRING COLD FRONTS AND BRISK WINDS TO REINFORCE THE BELOW AVERAGE COLD...AS WELL AS MEAGER SNOWFALL TO THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST. SOME RELIEF INDICATED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN UNDER AN OVERALL DRY WEATHER PATTERN. && .FIRE WEATHER... COLD TEMPERATURES WILL START THE DAY...AND AS UPSLOPE FLOW DIMINISHES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...SO WILL THE SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND EAST CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THUS...THE CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL BE STEADILY DECREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY JUST THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OBSERVING LIGHT SNOWFALL. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH...IF ANY...FROM YESTERDAYS READINGS...STAYING WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST BREEZES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR A RELATIVELY STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A SWATH OF 30-40 MPH WINDS AT THE 10000FT LEVEL. THESE BRISK WINDS WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN A FAIR VENTILATION CATEGORY...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AND THE FAR WESTERN BORDER OF NM. BY TONIGHT...MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SOME SNOW FLURRIES WILL LINGER IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE BITTERLY COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DUE TO PLUMMETING DEWPOINTS...LESS CLOUD COVER...AND LIGHTER WINDS. FOR THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR TO WARM 3 TO 12 DEGREES AS THE FLOW ALOFT TEMPORARILY SHIFTS MORE WESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW PRESSURE HEIGHTS TO RISE AMIDST THE DRY ATMOSPHERE. THESE RISING TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH THE VERY LOW DEWPOINTS WILL ACTUALLY CARRY THE MINIMUM RH TO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE IN MUCH OF CENTRAL TO EASTERN NM THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS AND EASTWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF EAST CENTRAL NM. OUTSIDE OF THESE BREEZY AREAS... VENTILATION WILL SUFFER DUE TO POOR MIXING. FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL WORKING TO FIND THE CONSENSUS FOR FRIDAYS WEATHER. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE NEXT PERTURBATION ALOFT WILL APPROACH NM IN A WEAKER AND DRIER STATE THAN WAS ADVERTISED YESTERDAY AND THE DAY BEFORE. IT CERTAINLY APPEAR INEVITABLE THAT COOLER AIR WILL STUNT THE WARMING TREND...BUT ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY BE ON THE MEAGER SIDE WITH THIS MORNINGS FORECAST ONLY INCLUDING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES MORE ON SATURDAY...ACTUALLY RISING WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY...SO JUST AS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES WARM CLOSE TO NORMAL...THE EAST WILL BE SET BACK SEVERAL DEGREES. IT NOW APPEARS THE POLAR VORTEX WILL STEP EASTWARD OF THE HIGH PLAINS...AND CONSEQUENTLY THIS WOULD SPELL A WARMING TREND FOR NM NEXT WEEK. 52 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ510-513>515-529-532-533. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
310 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TO THE TEXAS BORDER SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND EXTEND INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST TONIGHT. ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE LIGHT. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. A DRY BUT COLDER THAN NORMAL PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON ANY SIGNIFICANT STORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL REINFORCE COLD AIR OVER THE STATE AND MAY BRING ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION TO THE NORTH AT TIMES. BY NEXT TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO WARMER THAN AVERAGE VALUES. && .DISCUSSION... LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES AT KCQC...KSAF AND KAXX AT THIS TIME...BUT SHORT TERM MODELS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THIS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL ALLOW THE WINTER WEATHER TO RUN UNTIL IT/S EXPIRATION AT 5 AM. RUC13 AND HRRR INDICATE SOME LIGHT SNOW REDEVELOPING OVER THE NRN MTS AND SPREADING INTO THE FAR NE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT NOT MUCH ACCUMULATING AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT TRACK OVER THE REGION. DEW POINTS CRATER TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR LOWS TO FALL TO 15 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WHICH WAS TO BE MUCH STRONGER FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY IS NOW A FASTER MOVING TROUGH...AND AS A RESULT MUCH DRIER. TRIMMED POPS BACK BUT DIDN/T GO QUITE AS FAR AS GUIDANCE...WOULD LIKE TO SEE IF MODELS ESTABLISH THIS AS A TREND TO BOOST CONFIDENCE BEFORE CUTTING BACK EVEN MORE. SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS ARE ABSENT FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH BRING COLD FRONTS AND BRISK WINDS TO REINFORCE THE BELOW AVERAGE COLD...AS WELL AS MEAGER SNOWFALL TO THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST. SOME RELIEF INDICATED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN UNDER AN OVERALL DRY WEATHER PATTERN. && .FIRE WEATHER... COLD TEMPERATURES WILL START THE DAY...AND AS UPSLOPE FLOW DIMINISHES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...SO WILL THE SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND EAST CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THUS...THE CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL BE STEADILY DECREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY JUST THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OBSERVING LIGHT SNOWFALL. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH...IF ANY...FROM YESTERDAYS READINGS...STAYING WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST BREEZES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR A RELATIVELY STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A SWATH OF 30-40 MPH WINDS AT THE 10000FT LEVEL. THESE BRISK WINDS WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN A FAIR VENTILATION CATEGORY...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AND THE FAR WESTERN BORDER OF NM. BY TONIGHT...MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SOME SNOW FLURRIES WILL LINGER IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE BITTERLY COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DUE TO PLUMMETING DEWPOINTS...LESS CLOUD COVER...AND LIGHTER WINDS. FOR THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR TO WARM 3 TO 12 DEGREES AS THE FLOW ALOFT TEMPORARILY SHIFTS MORE WESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW PRESSURE HEIGHTS TO RISE AMIDST THE DRY ATMOSPHERE. THESE RISING TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH THE VERY LOW DEWPOINTS WILL ACTUALLY CARRY THE MINIMUM RH TO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE IN MUCH OF CENTRAL TO EASTERN NM THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS AND EASTWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF EAST CENTRAL NM. OUTSIDE OF THESE BREEZY AREAS... VENTILATION WILL SUFFER DUE TO POOR MIXING. FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL WORKING TO FIND THE CONSENSUS FOR FRIDAYS WEATHER. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE NEXT PERTURBATION ALOFT WILL APPROACH NM IN A WEAKER AND DRIER STATE THAN WAS ADVERTISED YESTERDAY AND THE DAY BEFORE. IT CERTAINLY APPEAR INEVITABLE THAT COOLER AIR WILL STUNT THE WARMING TREND...BUT ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY BE ON THE MEAGER SIDE WITH THIS MORNINGS FORECAST ONLY INCLUDING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES MORE ON SATURDAY...ACTUALLY RISING WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY...SO JUST AS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES WARM CLOSE TO NORMAL...THE EAST WILL BE SET BACK SEVERAL DEGREES. IT NOW APPEARS THE POLAR VORTEX WILL STEP EASTWARD OF THE HIGH PLAINS...AND CONSEQUENTLY THIS WOULD SPELL A WARMING TREND FOR NM NEXT WEEK. 52 && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE AN AREA OF SNOW IS CONTINUING OVER PORTIONS OF EAST NM...CENTERED OVER GUADALUPE AND DE BACA COUNTIES. IT IS FINALLY ENDING IN LVS. SNOW SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND END SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. NC MTNS WILL HAVE MTN TOP OBSCD THROUGH THE NIGHT AND POSSIBLY THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED CLEARING EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME LOW CIGS AS A RESULT OF THIS CLEARING ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR DEVELOPMENT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. 40 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 30 5 32 9 / 5 0 5 10 DULCE........................... 25 -6 30 0 / 20 5 10 10 CUBA............................ 26 -4 32 4 / 10 0 5 10 GALLUP.......................... 31 -8 39 3 / 5 0 5 10 EL MORRO........................ 27 -6 37 0 / 5 0 5 5 GRANTS.......................... 33 -5 40 6 / 5 0 5 5 QUEMADO......................... 34 6 41 9 / 5 0 5 5 GLENWOOD........................ 40 9 46 12 / 5 0 0 5 CHAMA........................... 22 -11 27 -5 / 30 10 10 20 LOS ALAMOS...................... 25 8 35 13 / 10 0 0 5 PECOS........................... 25 4 36 11 / 10 0 0 5 CERRO/QUESTA.................... 22 -11 27 0 / 10 10 5 10 RED RIVER....................... 17 -21 26 -6 / 20 20 10 20 ANGEL FIRE...................... 18 -24 27 -4 / 20 10 5 10 TAOS............................ 24 -9 29 2 / 10 10 0 10 MORA............................ 24 -3 35 10 / 20 5 0 5 ESPANOLA........................ 30 2 36 9 / 10 0 0 5 SANTA FE........................ 26 2 33 10 / 10 0 0 5 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 29 4 35 13 / 10 0 0 5 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 31 13 36 17 / 5 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 34 15 39 20 / 5 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 35 8 41 13 / 5 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 34 9 40 14 / 5 0 0 0 LOS LUNAS....................... 36 12 42 18 / 5 0 0 0 RIO RANCHO...................... 34 14 38 19 / 5 0 0 0 SOCORRO......................... 39 15 44 21 / 5 0 0 0 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 27 7 34 15 / 5 0 0 0 TIJERAS......................... 29 8 35 15 / 5 0 0 0 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 30 -1 38 9 / 5 0 0 0 CLINES CORNERS.................. 27 6 35 12 / 10 0 0 0 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 31 9 40 18 / 5 0 0 0 CARRIZOZO....................... 35 14 43 21 / 5 0 0 0 RUIDOSO......................... 32 14 41 20 / 5 0 0 0 CAPULIN......................... 26 1 39 12 / 10 10 0 5 RATON........................... 28 -4 38 12 / 10 10 0 5 SPRINGER........................ 27 0 38 12 / 10 10 0 5 LAS VEGAS....................... 26 2 39 14 / 10 5 0 5 CLAYTON......................... 33 12 44 20 / 10 10 0 5 ROY............................. 32 10 42 18 / 10 5 0 5 CONCHAS......................... 36 13 46 20 / 10 0 0 5 SANTA ROSA...................... 37 14 47 22 / 10 0 0 5 TUCUMCARI....................... 39 14 49 23 / 10 5 0 5 CLOVIS.......................... 40 16 48 21 / 5 0 0 5 PORTALES........................ 39 17 49 23 / 5 0 0 5 FORT SUMNER..................... 39 16 47 21 / 10 0 0 5 ROSWELL......................... 43 18 49 21 / 10 0 0 5 PICACHO......................... 39 15 48 21 / 10 0 0 5 ELK............................. 35 14 45 20 / 5 0 0 5 && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1038 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO DRIFT SLOWLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. THE LAST OF THESE WAVES WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY AND QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A QUICK BOUT OF RAIN WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW MIXING IN. ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 1035 PM THURSDAY...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN HAS MOVED OUT NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA SO THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WILL KEEP THE SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA PORTION CONTINUING UNTIL 2 AM. THE HRRR AND THE NAM CURRENTLY ARE SHOWING THE END OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BY MIDNIGHT. AFTERWARD ONLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...RAPIDLY DEEPENING OFFSHORE LOW WILL BE MOVING SWIFTLY NORTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...PULLING MOISTURE AWAY WITH IT BUT ALSO BRINGING IN A STRONG SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN IN THE CAPE FEAR REGION FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT AND LOWS A DEGREE OR SO EITHER SIDE OF 30. THE APPROACH OF A VERY POTENT AND DEEP SHORT WAVE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY WILL SPAWN CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK-SIDE OF THE LOW WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT SATURDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY ALONG THE COAST...POSSIBLY ENDING BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW FROZEN PRECIP UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT...ANOTHER CASE OF COLD AIR CHASING MOISTURE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER CAPTION FOR THIS PERIOD READS SEASONABLY COOL EARLY FEBRUARY AIR CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY. ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS OFFERS 2 PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SUNDAY MORNING ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AS AN ENERGETIC CLIPPER SHORT-WAVE SPURS OFFSHORE CYCLOGENESIS. ECMWF OFFERS A STRONGER AMPLIFICATION OF THIS FEATURE BUT FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER OUTCOMES IT IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS IN TERMS OF A LOW-QPF SYSTEM RELIANT ON ATLC MOISTURE. MONDAY NIGHT A REINFORCING COLD FRONT PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER COLD POOL TUESDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. AGREEMENT IS GOOD AMONG GLOBAL SOLUTIONS THAT A BROAD AND COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY TO MID-WEEK. ENOUGH LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS PRESENT TO INTERACT WITH THE LAPSE RATES ALOFT TO WARRANT SHOWERS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES AT THIS TIME SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE OF LIQUID FORM. && .AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 00Z...THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NC HAS FINALLY REACHED THE COAST AND WILL BE PULLING OFF THE COAST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SC COAST WILL BE LIFTING NEWD DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL. HRRR AND RAP40 SHOWED HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COASTAL TERMINALS FROM 00Z-04Z WITH DRYING MOVING ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS. NOT SEEING THAT HEAVY PRECIP MATERIALIZING FOR SC TERMINALS BUT WILL LEAVE THE CHANCE ACROSS KILM FOR THAT PERIOD ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL FORECAST MVFR ACROSS KLBT/KFLO AND KEEP IN IFR ACROSS KILM/KCRE/KMYR THROUGH 03Z-04Z THEN MVFR. LOOK FOR TERMINALS TO BECOME VFR FIRST INLAND THEN COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER 10Z-13Z INLAND AND AFTER 15Z-16Z COAST. MAIN AVIATION ISSUE WILL TRANSITION FROM RAIN/CEILINGS/VSBY TO WIND AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH SURFACE LOW EXITING AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE STRONG N-NW WINDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS OF 15-20KTS WITH SOME GUSTS OF 25-30KTS. WINDS WILL START TO ABATE AFTER 06/00Z. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH MVFR. VFR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 9 PM THURSDAY...A SURFACE LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND THIS LOW WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS AND INTERSECTS THE SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COAST IN BRUNSWICK COUNTY. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT IT WILL BE PULLED OUT OFF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND A STRONG NORTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP OVER ALL THE WATERS BRINGING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH VERY STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUSLY HIGH SEAS IN THE WAKE OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT A STRONGLY-WORDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY MORNING FOR WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS AND 5 TO 8 FT SEAS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OVER TEXAS MOVES RAPIDLY EAST OVER EASTERN CONUS. ANOTHER RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE WATERS SUNDAY MORNING...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO ONCE AGAIN DETERIORATE AND LIKELY NECESSITATING THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...CHALLENGING MARINE CONDITIONS START THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS STRONG OFFSHORE N-NW WINDS GREET SUNDAY DUE TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFFSHORE. 25 KT WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS OFFSHORE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON SUNDAY. IMPROVEMENT WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW PULLS NE AWAY FROM THE WATERS. THE IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SHORT- LIVED AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE ADVERTISED PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS 20-25 KT SW-W WINDS BY TUESDAY AND HIGHER GUSTS OUTER PORTION. THUS IT APPEARS ANOTHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AFTER AN ADVISORY SUNDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ096-099-105>110. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...DRH SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...MJC AVIATION...MAC MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
917 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO DRIFT SLOWLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. THE LAST OF THESE WAVES WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY AND QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A QUICK BOUT OF RAIN WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW MIXING IN. ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 9 PM THURSDAY...SEVERAL BANDS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE MOVING OUT OF NORTHERN HORRY INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND IT APPEARS THE LAST THREAT OF RAIN IS MAKING IT LAST PUSH ACROSS GEORGETOWN AND WILL ENTER HORRY IN THE NEXT HOUR. THE HRRR AND THE NAM CURRENTLY ARE SHOWING THE END OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BY MIDNIGHT. AFTERWARD ONLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT TO CANCEL FLOOD WATCH IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AT 10 PM. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...RAPIDLY DEEPENING OFFSHORE LOW WILL BE MOVING SWIFTLY NORTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...PULLING MOISTURE AWAY WITH IT BUT ALSO BRINGING IN A STRONG SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN IN THE CAPE FEAR REGION FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT AND LOWS A DEGREE OR SO EITHER SIDE OF 30. THE APPROACH OF A VERY POTENT AND DEEP SHORT WAVE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY WILL SPAWN CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK-SIDE OF THE LOW WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT SATURDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY ALONG THE COAST...POSSIBLY ENDING BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW FROZEN PRECIP UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT...ANOTHER CASE OF COLD AIR CHASING MOISTURE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER CAPTION FOR THIS PERIOD READS SEASONABLY COOL EARLY FEBRUARY AIR CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY. ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS OFFERS 2 PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SUNDAY MORNING ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AS AN ENERGETIC CLIPPER SHORT-WAVE SPURS OFFSHORE CYCLOGENESIS. ECMWF OFFERS A STRONGER AMPLIFICATION OF THIS FEATURE BUT FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER OUTCOMES IT IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS IN TERMS OF A LOW-QPF SYSTEM RELIANT ON ATLC MOISTURE. MONDAY NIGHT A REINFORCING COLD FRONT PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER COLD POOL TUESDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. AGREEMENT IS GOOD AMONG GLOBAL SOLUTIONS THAT A BROAD AND COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY TO MID-WEEK. ENOUGH LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS PRESENT TO INTERACT WITH THE LAPSE RATES ALOFT TO WARRANT SHOWERS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES AT THIS TIME SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE OF LIQUID FORM. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 00Z...THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NC HAS FINALLY REACHED THE COAST AND WILL BE PULLING OFF THE COAST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SC COAST WILL BE LIFTING NEWD DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL. HRRR AND RAP40 SHOWED HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COASTAL TERMINALS FROM 00Z-04Z WITH DRYING MOVING ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS. NOT SEEING THAT HEAVY PRECIP MATERIALIZING FOR SC TERMINALS BUT WILL LEAVE THE CHANCE ACROSS KILM FOR THAT PERIOD ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL FORECAST MVFR ACROSS KLBT/KFLO AND KEEP IN IFR ACROSS KILM/KCRE/KMYR THROUGH 03Z-04Z THEN MVFR. LOOK FOR TERMINALS TO BECOME VFR FIRST INLAND THEN COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER 10Z-13Z INLAND AND AFTER 15Z-16Z COAST. MAIN AVIATION ISSUE WILL TRANSITION FROM RAIN/CEILINGS/VSBY TO WIND AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH SURFACE LOW EXITING AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE STRONG N-NW WINDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS OF 15-20KTS WITH SOME GUSTS OF 25-30KTS. WINDS WILL START TO ABATE AFTER 06/00Z. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH MVFR. VFR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 9 PM THURSDAY...A SURFACE LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND THIS LOW WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS AND INTERSECTS THE SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COAST IN BRUNSWICK COUNTY. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT IT WILL BE PULLED OUT OFF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND A STRONG NORTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP OVER ALL THE WATERS BRINGING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH VERY STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUSLY HIGH SEAS IN THE WAKE OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT A STRONGLY-WORDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY MORNING FOR WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS AND 5 TO 8 FT SEAS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OVER TEXAS MOVES RAPIDLY EAST OVER EASTERN CONUS. ANOTHER RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE WATERS SUNDAY MORNING...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO ONCE AGAIN DETERIORATE AND LIKELY NECESSITATING THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...CHALLENGING MARINE CONDITIONS START THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS STRONG OFFSHORE N-NW WINDS GREET SUNDAY DUE TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFFSHORE. 25 KT WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS OFFSHORE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON SUNDAY. IMPROVEMENT WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW PULLS NE AWAY FROM THE WATERS. THE IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SHORT- LIVED AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE ADVERTISED PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS 20-25 KT SW-W WINDS BY TUESDAY AND HIGHER GUSTS OUTER PORTION. THUS IT APPEARS ANOTHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AFTER AN ADVISORY SUNDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ053>056. NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ096-099-105>110. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ250- 252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...REK NEAR TERM...DRH SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...MJC AVIATION...MAC MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
655 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO DRIFT SLOWLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. THE LAST OF THESE WAVES WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY AND QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A QUICK BOUT OF RAIN WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW MIXING IN. ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 7 PM THURSDAY...CURRENTLY ONLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN MAINLY EAST OF A ELIZABETHTOWN TO ANDREWS LINE. PRECIPITATION MORE SCATTERED TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE. THE SURFACE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON JUST BELOW 1013 MB ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE 22 UTC RAP/HRRR MODELS SHOW THE LOW SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTH BUT REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 1010MB. THE 22 UTC HRRR INITIALIZES THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RAIN TO FAR WEST...AND IT WANTS TO INCREASE INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE FLOOD WATCH AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE SIGNIFICANT FORCING IS SUPPOSE TO BE THE ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS LIFT SHOULD BECOME STRONG WITH THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND IF THE HEAVY RAIN DOESN`T MATERIALIZE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER DROPPING THE FLOOD WATCH. ...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY REACHED THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BUT HAS YET TO SHOW UP IN THE WILMINGTON/ CAPE FEAR AREA WHERE WINDS ARE STILL SOUTH WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD SURVIVE AS A TRACKABLE FEATURE THIS EVENING DESPITE THE WEAK WINDS AND MODIFYING AIRMASSES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. A STREAM OF DEEP MOISTURE AND RAINFALL EXTENDING FROM FLORIDA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. WE`VE HAD A WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH THE HEAVIEST TOTALS IN A STRIPE JUST WEST AND NORTH OF WILMINGTON. AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL WHIP EASTWARD TONIGHT...REACHING THE CAROLINAS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. SLOWLY VEERING MID-LEVEL WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE _WOULD_ PUSH THE RAIN GRADUALLY OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME NON-LINEAR PROCESSES AT WORK WHICH WILL DELAY THE ENDING OF THE PRECIP. FOR ONE...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE COAST SHOULD TIGHTEN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM ALOFT. THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF A 300 MB JET STREAK OVER NEW YORK STATE WILL HELP ENHANCE DEEP LIFT OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS EVENING AND WILL HELP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE SC COAST. ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE 300K-310K LAYER SHOULD INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY FROM 6 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT WITH RAINFALL RATES LIKELY BECOMING QUITE HEAVY ALONG THE COAST. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM LESS THAN HALF AN INCH WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 TO 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES FOR SOUTHPORT AND WILMINGTON. THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE FLOOD WATCH. AFTER 06Z/2 AM EST...DEEP ASCENT SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE AND TOWARD THE OUTER BANKS. A DRY SLOT ARRIVING IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD ALSO HELP END THE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD PERSIST. COMPARED TO MODELS 12 HOURS AGO SURFACE AND IN-CLOUD TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER LATE TONIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW FLURRIES APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING. FORECAST LOWS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION TO THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...RAPIDLY DEEPENING OFFSHORE LOW WILL BE MOVING SWIFTLY NORTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...PULLING MOISTURE AWAY WITH IT BUT ALSO BRINGING IN A STRONG SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN IN THE CAPE FEAR REGION FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT AND LOWS A DEGREE OR SO EITHER SIDE OF 30. THE APPROACH OF A VERY POTENT AND DEEP SHORT WAVE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY WILL SPAWN CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK-SIDE OF THE LOW WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT SATURDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY ALONG THE COAST...POSSIBLY ENDING BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW FROZEN PRECIP UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT...ANOTHER CASE OF COLD AIR CHASING MOISTURE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER CAPTION FOR THIS PERIOD READS SEASONABLY COOL EARLY FEBRUARY AIR CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY. ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS OFFERS 2 PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SUNDAY MORNING ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AS AN ENERGETIC CLIPPER SHORT-WAVE SPURS OFFSHORE CYCLOGENESIS. ECMWF OFFERS A STRONGER AMPLIFICATION OF THIS FEATURE BUT FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER OUTCOMES IT IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS IN TERMS OF A LOW-QPF SYSTEM RELIANT ON ATLC MOISTURE. MONDAY NIGHT A REINFORCING COLD FRONT PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER COLD POOL TUESDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. AGREEMENT IS GOOD AMONG GLOBAL SOLUTIONS THAT A BROAD AND COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY TO MID-WEEK. ENOUGH LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS PRESENT TO INTERACT WITH THE LAPSE RATES ALOFT TO WARRANT SHOWERS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES AT THIS TIME SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE OF LIQUID FORM. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 00Z...THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NC HAS FINALLY REACHED THE COAST AND WILL BE PULLING OFF THE COAST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SC COAST WILL BE LIFTING NEWD DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL. HRRR AND RAP40 SHOWED HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COASTAL TERMINALS FROM 00Z-04Z WITH DRYING MOVING ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS. NOT SEEING THAT HEAVY PRECIP MATERIALIZING FOR SC TERMINALS BUT WILL LEAVE THE CHANCE ACROSS KILM FOR THAT PERIOD ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL FORECAST MVFR ACROSS KLBT/KFLO AND KEEP IN IFR ACROSS KILM/KCRE/KMYR THROUGH 03Z-04Z THEN MVFR. LOOK FOR TERMINALS TO BECOME VFR FIRST INLAND THEN COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER 10Z-13Z INLAND AND AFTER 15Z-16Z COAST. MAIN AVIATION ISSUE WILL TRANSITION FROM RAIN/CEILINGS/VSBY TO WIND AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH SURFACE LOW EXITING AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE STRONG N-NW WINDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS OF 15-20KTS WITH SOME GUSTS OF 25-30KTS. WINDS WILL START TO ABATE AFTER 06/00Z. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH MVFR. VFR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 PM THURSDAY...A SURFACE LOW IS SOUTH OF 41004 AND THIS LOW WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS AND INTERSECTS THE SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COAST IN BRUNSWICK COUNTY. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT IT WILL BE PULLED OUT OFF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND A STRONG NORTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP OVER ALL THE WATERS BRINGING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH VERY STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUSLY HIGH SEAS IN THE WAKE OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT A STRONGLY-WORDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY MORNING FOR WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS AND 5 TO 8 FT SEAS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OVER TEXAS MOVES RAPIDLY EAST OVER EASTERN CONUS. ANOTHER RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE WATERS SUNDAY MORNING...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO ONCE AGAIN DETERIORATE AND LIKELY NECESSITATING THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...CHALLENGING MARINE CONDITIONS START THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS STRONG OFFSHORE N-NW WINDS GREET SUNDAY DUE TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFFSHORE. 25 KT WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS OFFSHORE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON SUNDAY. IMPROVEMENT WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW PULLS NE AWAY FROM THE WATERS. THE IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SHORT- LIVED AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE ADVERTISED PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS 20-25 KT SW-W WINDS BY TUESDAY AND HIGHER GUSTS OUTER PORTION. THUS IT APPEARS ANOTHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AFTER AN ADVISORY SUNDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ053>056. NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ096-099-105>110. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ250- 252-254-256. && $$ NEAR TERM...HAWKINS SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...MJC AVIATION...MAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
328 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THURSDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW MAY DEVELOP OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION. ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTION WHICH IS PRODUCING ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER TO THE WEST. THE LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING THE CONVECTION SLOWLY SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY 21 UTC AND CREEPING TO THE EAST AND TOWARD THE COAST JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE INITIAL THREAT IS AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO IT WE CONTINUE TO SEE THE BOWING IN THE CONVECTIVE LINES. THE BIGGER THREAT WITH HIGHER PROBABILITY IS THE HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SLOW MOVING LINE. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS RUNNING AROUND 1.8 WHICH IS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND AS THE CONVECTION SHIFTS EASTWARD IT WILL SLOW AND THIS WILL INCREASE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT OF 2 INCH AMOUNTS IN SOME PLACES. LOWS OVERNIGHT AREA EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...RATHER COPIOUS RAIN EVENT UNDERWAY THURSDAY AS A FAIRLY FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP ALONG THE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG UPPER LOW BEARING DOWN FROM THE WEST. BY THE TIME THE PRECIP WINDS DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT MOST AREAS SHOULD NET TWO INCHES TO TWO AND A QUARTER. THIS IS FAR ENOUGH BELOW FLOOD GUIDANCE THAT A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE BREEZY AND WELL MIXED KEEPING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S EVEN AS TEMPS ALOFT GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FLURRIES ON THE VERY TAIL END OF THE PRECIP. TOUGH TO RULE OUT A FLAKE OR TWO REACHING THE GROUND DESPITE THE STRONG DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN DUE TO 34 S-1 VORT BEARING DOWN ON THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEAKLY DUE TO THE NEXT SYSTEM ALOFT RELOADING TO OUR WEST. MOST PLACES WILL STRUGGLE TO ABOUT 50 DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...INTERESTING START TO NEXT WEEK SHAPING UP DURING THE PERIOD. FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR SAT WITH ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE JUST WEST OF THE AREA. THINGS START TO GET INTERESTING SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GULF COAST...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE SAT NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT HELPS SPREAD RAIN OVER THE AREA SUN MORNING. THE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS NORTHEAST SUN AND SUN NIGHT. HAVE FAIR AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW BUT CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE CONCERNING THE LOWS PROXIMITY TO THE COAST AND ITS FORWARD SPEED. STRENGTH AND TRACK BOTH HAVE LARGE RAMIFICATIONS ON PRECIP TYPE SUN AND SUN NIGHT. INHERITED FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH WPC...IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS GFS SOLUTIONS AND THE 00Z ECMWF. THIS WOULD RESULT IN COLD RAIN WITH SOME SNOW MIXED IN AS THE EVENT ENDS. THE LAST FEW GFS RUNS HOWEVER HAVE TRENDED COLDER AND SLOWER...WITH MORE SNOW AND LESS RAIN. THIS IS DOWN TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAVE A DEEPER SYSTEM AT 500 MB...WHICH MEANS MORE COLD AIR AND SLOWER MOVEMENT. SINCE THIS SOLUTION IS NEW AND NOT REALLY IN LINE WITH GFS ENSEMBLES OR WPC IT HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED FOR NOW...BUT BEARS WATCHING. STACKED LOW EXITS NORTHEAST LATE SUN NIGHT BUT BROAD 5H TROUGH LINGERS OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE IS SOME COLD AIR BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM MON INTO TUE WHICH KEEPS TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. MUCH COLDER AIR FOLLOWS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA ON TUE. ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DROP TEMPS WELL BELOW CLIMO. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY SHOWING 850 TEMPS RANGING FROM -10C TO -15C AS THE PERIOD ENDS. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 18Z...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR/IFR THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BECOME WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES OFFSHORE. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS...WITH 31 KTS ALREADY MEASURED AT KILM WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. VFR/MVFR PREVAILS BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...LOW CIGS...AND AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT PROGGED TO BE SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY OFFSHORE. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ON THURSDAY. BECOMING VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH A SLIGHT VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 4 TO 7 FEET NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER BASE ON LOCAL BUOYS AND SEAS ARE 4 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET. THE LOCAL WAVE MODEL IS SHOWING THE SEAS AT 20 MILES OFF THE COAST REMAINING AROUND 6 FEET OVERNIGHT BEFORE DROPPING TO BELOW 5 FEET JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. SO WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER THROUGH 6 AM AND AN EXERCISE CAUTION TO THE SOUTH. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY... OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE RATHER LIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY`S VERY RAINY AFTERNOON. AS A FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES BY FLOW WILL BACK AND INCREASE IN SPEED THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE TO WHERE CAUTIONARY HEADLINES OR ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BY THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE LOW ACCELERATES QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD AS FRIDAY PROGRESSES AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY ABATE BELOW ANY THRESHOLDS THOUGH SCEC-WORTHY SEAS MAY CONTINUE FOR A BIT. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH WEST OF THE WATERS ON SAT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY ENHANCED GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 15 KT SAT STARTS TO INCREASE SAT NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH. WINDS STEADILY INCREASE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH SCA LIKELY AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR GALE CONDITIONS LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT. ANY GALES WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT PASSES EAST OF THE WATERS. WINDS WILL BACK FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST SUN AND SUN NIGHT WITH SPEEDS DECREASING LATE SUN NIGHT AS THE LOW EXITS NORTHEAST. WEAK GRADIENT BRIEFLY IN PLACE MON WITH WINDS BACKING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SPEEDS DROP UNDER 10 KT EARLY MON MORNING BUT BY EVENING MOST AREAS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 15 KT...AND FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SEAS DECREASING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD START TO BUILD SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH SUN...PEAKING JUST SHORT OF 10 FT SUN NIGHT. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON WILL BEGIN A DOWNWARD TREND IN SEAS INTO MON EVENING BEFORE SEAS START BUILDING AS THE PERIOD ENDS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...DRH SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...III AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
118 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND PUSH INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT AND THEN STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OFFSHORE DURING THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING THE RISK OF MORE PRECIPITATION. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1230 PM WEDNESDAY...WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH HORRY COUNTY AND THIS AREA IS PROGGED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTH OF THE AREA BY 20 UTC. THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION IS FORECASTED BY THE 17 UTC HRRR TO ENTER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 23 UTC AND WORK ITS WAY TO THE COAST BY MIDNIGHT. THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CEASE AND SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND THE SLOW MOTION OF THE FRONT THE AREA HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER FORECAST AREA WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST. ALSO... THE AREA CONTINUES IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...THE SHEAR IS STILL FORECASTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LINE OF CONVECTION BUT THE LIMITED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL HAMPER ENHANCE CONVECTION. EVEN WITH THIS THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE WIND REPORT. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFFSHORE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. AN ELONGATED MOISTURE FEED WILL EXTEND ALONG THE BOUNDARY WELL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL BE WAITING ON A DECENT MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST FOR THE FINAL PUSH OFFSHORE. OVERALL I INCREASED POPS THURSDAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS VIA A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SCENARIO WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD WANE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. FOR FRIDAY EXPECT SLOW CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AND A COLD BLUSTERY DAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE LOWER 50S. CLEAR AND COLD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOST AREAS SEEING LOWS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...INTERESTING AND ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SATURDAY WILL BE UNEVENTFUL ENOUGH WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING BASICALLY EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE ROCKIES LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS ENSUING AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF AND MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THE GFS IS MOST INTERESTING AND COLDER WITH SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE VIA OUR STATE OF THE ART TOP DOWN METHODOLOGIES. THE LATEST ECMWF...WHICH IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION VIA CONSISTENCY IS ADVERTISING A COLD RAIN. THE SYSTEM DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL COULD SPELL TROUBLE BY ITSELF IF THE ANTICIPATED QPF AMOUNTS COME CLOSE WITH THE CURRENT EVENT. BEYOND THIS... SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST TROUGHING DEVELOPS SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE COLD AIR. A POWERFUL VORT THAT WILL BRING THE COLDEST OF AIR LATE COULD BRING A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A SYSTEM FOR THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE COLD SIDE WITH A VERY TEPID AND BRIEF WARMUP MONDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 18Z...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR/IFR THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BECOME WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES OFFSHORE. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS...WITH 31 KTS ALREADY MEASURED AT KILM WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. VFR/MVFR PREVAILS BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...LOW CIGS...AND AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT PROGGED TO BE SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY OFFSHORE. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ON THURSDAY. BECOMING VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1 PM WEDNESDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AREA BLOWING OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH SEAS RUNNING 3 TO 5 FEET NEAR SHORE TO 5 TO 7 FEET AT 20 MILES OFF THE COAST. SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 3 TO 5 FEET RANGE. THUS THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND EXERCISE CAUTION WILL CONTINUE. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THURSDAY AS A FRONT TRUDGES SLOWLY TO THE EAST. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN NORTHEAST AS THE DAY CONCLUDES. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE WILL STRENGTHEN AND SPEEDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS. BY EARLY FRIDAY SPEEDS INCREASE FURTHER FOR A FEW HOURS TO JUST OVER 25 KNOTS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH ALL THE WHILE FROM THE NORTHEAST. SEAS WILL DECREASE FROM SMALL CRAFT VALUES THURSDAY THEN INCREASE CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY OUTER WATERS LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE INCREASING WIND FIELDS. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...ONE DECENT DAY SATURDAY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS FROM 10-15 KNOTS. SPEEDS PICK UP SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WINDS TO 20-25 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET SATURDAY INCREASING WITH THE WINDS SUNDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252. && $$ NEAR TERM...DRH SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1225 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND PUSH INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT AND THEN STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OFFSHORE DURING THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING THE RISK OF MORE PRECIPITATION. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WARM FRONT IS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA AND A STEADY SOUTH WIND INCREASED OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING TO NEAR 70 EXCEPT FOR THE BEACHES WHERE THE COLD SHELF WATERS ARE KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 60S. AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES IT WAY TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA THE HRRR IS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING WELL AHEAD OF THE LINE OF CONVECTION. THE HRRR SHOWS A LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING IN TO THE FORECAST AREA THE EVENING AN SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST AS THE MARINE LAYER KNOCKS DOWN THE CONVECTION. AS THE FORCING OF THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AS IT REACHES THE COAST. WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF MAXING OUT AT AROUND 1.8 AND THE SLOW NATURE OF THE FRONT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE AREA CONTINUES UNDER A MARGINAL RISK WITH SHEAR INCREASING BY THE MID AFTERNOON BUT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THE BEST SO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS ISOLATED MAINLY FOR WINDS AND WITH A LESSER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFFSHORE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. AN ELONGATED MOISTURE FEED WILL EXTEND ALONG THE BOUNDARY WELL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL BE WAITING ON A DECENT MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST FOR THE FINAL PUSH OFFSHORE. OVERALL I INCREASED POPS THURSDAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS VIA A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SCENARIO WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD WANE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. FOR FRIDAY EXPECT SLOW CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AND A COLD BLUSTERY DAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE LOWER 50S. CLEAR AND COLD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOST AREAS SEEING LOWS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...INTERESTING AND ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SATURDAY WILL BE UNEVENTFUL ENOUGH WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING BASICALLY EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE ROCKIES LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS ENSUING AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF AND MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THE GFS IS MOST INTERESTING AND COLDER WITH SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE VIA OUR STATE OF THE ART TOP DOWN METHODOLOGIES. THE LATEST ECMWF...WHICH IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION VIA CONSISTENCY IS ADVERTISING A COLD RAIN. THE SYSTEM DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL COULD SPELL TROUBLE BY ITSELF IF THE ANTICIPATED QPF AMOUNTS COME CLOSE WITH THE CURRENT EVENT. BEYOND THIS... SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST TROUGHING DEVELOPS SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE COLD AIR. A POWERFUL VORT THAT WILL BRING THE COLDEST OF AIR LATE COULD BRING A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A SYSTEM FOR THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE COLD SIDE WITH A VERY TEPID AND BRIEF WARMUP MONDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 18Z...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR/IFR THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BECOME WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES OFFSHORE. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS...WITH 31 KTS ALREADY MEASURED AT KILM WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. VFR/MVFR PREVAILS BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...LOW CIGS...AND AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT PROGGED TO BE SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY OFFSHORE. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ON THURSDAY. BECOMING VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY SEA FOG THIS MORNING. THE WINDS ARE INCREASING BUT BELOW SMALL CRAFT AT THE BUOYS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THE WINDS AT FRYING PAN ARE NOW IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS OF 6.9 FEET. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER. TO THE SOUTH A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL CONTINUE. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THURSDAY AS A FRONT TRUDGES SLOWLY TO THE EAST. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN NORTHEAST AS THE DAY CONCLUDES. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE WILL STRENGTHEN AND SPEEDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS. BY EARLY FRIDAY SPEEDS INCREASE FURTHER FOR A FEW HOURS TO JUST OVER 25 KNOTS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH ALL THE WHILE FROM THE NORTHEAST. SEAS WILL DECREASE FROM SMALL CRAFT VALUES THURSDAY THEN INCREASE CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY OUTER WATERS LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE INCREASING WIND FIELDS. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...ONE DECENT DAY SATURDAY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS FROM 10-15 KNOTS. SPEEDS PICK UP SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WINDS TO 20-25 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET SATURDAY INCREASING WITH THE WINDS SUNDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252. && $$ NEAR TERM...DRH SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1023 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND PUSH INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT AND THEN STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OFFSHORE DURING THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING THE RISK OF MORE PRECIPITATION. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WARM FRONT IS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA AND A STEADY SOUTH WIND INCREASED OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING TO NEAR 70 EXCEPT FOR THE BEACHES WHERE THE COLD SHELF WATERS ARE KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 60S. AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES IT WAY TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA THE HRRR IS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING WELL AHEAD OF THE LINE OF CONVECTION. THE HRRR SHOWS A LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING IN TO THE FORECAST AREA THE EVENING AN SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST AS THE MARINE LAYER KNOCKS DOWN THE CONVECTION. AS THE FORCING OF THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AS IT REACHES THE COAST. WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF MAXING OUT AT AROUND 1.8 AND THE SLOW NATURE OF THE FRONT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE AREA CONTINUES UNDER A MARGINAL RISK WITH SHEAR INCREASING BY THE MID AFTERNOON BUT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THE BEST SO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS ISOLATED MAINLY FOR WINDS AND WITH A LESSER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFFSHORE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. AN ELONGATED MOISTURE FEED WILL EXTEND ALONG THE BOUNDARY WELL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL BE WAITING ON A DECENT MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST FOR THE FINAL PUSH OFFSHORE. OVERALL I INCREASED POPS THURSDAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS VIA A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SCENARIO WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD WANE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. FOR FRIDAY EXPECT SLOW CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AND A COLD BLUSTERY DAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE LOWER 50S. CLEAR AND COLD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOST AREAS SEEING LOWS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...INTERESTING AND ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SATURDAY WILL BE UNEVENTFUL ENOUGH WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING BASICALLY EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE ROCKIES LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS ENSUING AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF AND MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THE GFS IS MOST INTERESTING AND COLDER WITH SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE VIA OUR STATE OF THE ART TOP DOWN METHODOLOGIES. THE LATEST ECMWF...WHICH IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION VIA CONSISTENCY IS ADVERTISING A COLD RAIN. THE SYSTEM DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL COULD SPELL TROUBLE BY ITSELF IF THE ANTICIPATED QPF AMOUNTS COME CLOSE WITH THE CURRENT EVENT. BEYOND THIS... SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST TROUGHING DEVELOPS SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE COLD AIR. A POWERFUL VORT THAT WILL BRING THE COLDEST OF AIR LATE COULD BRING A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A SYSTEM FOR THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE COLD SIDE WITH A VERY TEPID AND BRIEF WARMUP MONDAY. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 12Z...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DETERIORATING BACK TO MVFR/IFR THIS EVENING AS A WARM FRONT AND COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR/IFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WITH A WARM FRONT PROGGED TO PUSH NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WILL SEE LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG IMPROVE BEHIND THIS FEATURE TO VFR. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR/IFR AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...LOW CIGS...AND AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WILL MENTION THAT SEA FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE HAVE NOT INTRODUCED IN CURRENT FORECAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING TO AOB 15 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS...POTENTIALLY HIGHER IN ANY THUNDERSTORM. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ON THURSDAY. BECOMING VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY SEA FOG THIS MORNING. THE WINDS ARE INCREASING BUT BELOW SMALL CRAFT AT THE BUOYS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THE WINDS AT FRYING PAN ARE NOW IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS OF 6.9 FEET. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER. TO THE SOUTH A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL CONTINUE. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THURSDAY AS A FRONT TRUDGES SLOWLY TO THE EAST. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN NORTHEAST AS THE DAY CONCLUDES. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE WILL STRENGTHEN AND SPEEDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS. BY EARLY FRIDAY SPEEDS INCREASE FURTHER FOR A FEW HOURS TO JUST OVER 25 KNOTS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH ALL THE WHILE FROM THE NORTHEAST. SEAS WILL DECREASE FROM SMALL CRAFT VALUES THURSDAY THEN INCREASE CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY OUTER WATERS LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE INCREASING WIND FIELDS. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...ONE DECENT DAY SATURDAY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS FROM 10-15 KNOTS. SPEEDS PICK UP SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WINDS TO 20-25 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET SATURDAY INCREASING WITH THE WINDS SUNDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252. && $$ NEAR TERM...DRH SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1018 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP THE EAST COAST MAY SPREAD A VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW INTO SOUTHEASTERN PA TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOWS COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SNOWBELT WITH DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING BY 06Z OVER SOUTHERN YORK AND LANCASTER...THEN MIXED RAIN AND SNOW CHANGING TO SNOW SNOW SHORTLY AFTERWARDS AND LASTING THROUGH 13Z. STILL EXPECTING A COASTING TO AS MUCH AS 1-2 INCHES OVER EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF LANCASTER COUNTY. WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON SCHEDULE JUST SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NC LATE THIS EVENING WILL TRACK ALONG THE OUTER NC BANKS OVERNIGHT AND OFFSHORE BEFORE HEADING NORTHEAST AND WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL TAKE A BREAK IN THE CENTRAL COS TONIGHT AS THE LLVL FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE LESS CYCLONIC. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF SCT/ISOLD SHSN IN THE NW THO AS THE STRONG VORT MAX NEAR PA FROM THE W. THE FLOW IS STILL OFF THE LAKE AND UPSLOPE INTO THE HIGHER ELEVS OF PA. JUST A DUSTING THERE AS WELL. MINS WILL BE LOWEST IN THE NW WHERE CAA BRINGS 8H TEMPS DOWN TO DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW 0C. THE OFFSHORE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NW AND THE AXIS OF THE JET STREAM PASSES OUR LONGITUDE EVEN BEFORE SUNRISE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... SNOW SHOULD SCOOT EAST OF LANCASTER COUNTY BY OR AFTER 700 AM. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR ON ALL FRONTS WITH THE LOW WELL OFF TO THE NE AND VORT MAX/SHORT WAVE OVERHEAD IN THE MORNING. WILL LINGER MENTION OF --SHSN IN THE ALLEGHENIES FOR THE MORNING. ELSEWHERE...THE NWRLY WIND WILL PICK BACK UP. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT OVER MOST OF THE CWA. TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY NEAR NORMAL FOR MAXES WITH NIL ADVECTION AND 8H TEMPS AROUND -10C. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODERATELY AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOW DOWN THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. PATTERN WILL TRANSITIONS TO A WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH A CORRESPONDING DOWNSTREAM UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. AFTER A QUIET START TO THE PERIOD THIS WEEKEND...THE WEATHER WILL TREND COLDER AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR AND SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN AT THIS POINT APPEARS LOW TO MODERATE. MAIN THREAT WILL BE IN THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME...WITH POSSIBLE COASTAL DEVELOPMENT STILL HINTED AT THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. LATEST TRENDS HOWEVER ARE FOR DEVELOPMENT TO BE FARTHER EAST THAN YESTERDAYS SOLUTIONS. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN ACROSS CENTRAL PA THRU 06Z WILL BE MVFR STRATOCU DECK/SCT FLURRIES AT KBFD/KJST ASSOC WITH WEAK OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVR THE MTNS. FOCUS LATE TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TOWARD SE PA...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRES LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST. ALL THE LATEST MDL DATA SUGGESTS KLNS WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOW /IFR/ VSBYS AT KLNS BTWN 08Z-12Z FRIDAY. LATEST HRRR OUTPUT AS OF 03Z SUGGESTS THE SIG VIS REDUCTIONS MAY REMAIN JUST EAST OF KLNS...BUT TOO CLOSE TO CALL ATTM. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST MVFR CONDS AT KBFD AND KJST FRIDAY MORNING WITH OCNL -SHSN. LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR PRODUCTS SUGGEST OCNL IFR CONDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT KBFD/KJST EARLY FRIDAY AM...AS BLYR MOISTURE/-SHSN INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE W. ANY SNOW AT KLNS SHOULD END BY ARND 11Z. FOCUS WILL THEN BE ON LINGERING STRATOCU ACROSS THE W MTNS. MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EVEN KBFD/KJST WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDS BY AFTN...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. OUTLOOK... SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. MON-TUE...SNOW/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY W MTNS. && .HYDROLOGY... OBVIOUS ICE EFFECTS AT MARIETTA WILL CONTINUE FOR QUITE A WHILE. BUT FLOWS ARE NOT VERY HIGH. THE LOCAL STREAMS WILL START TO COME DOWN SOME...BUT SHOW DAILY AFTN BUMPS UP AS RESIDUAL SNOW MELTS WITH AFTN TEMPS IN THE 40S EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHERE PATCHY SNOW LINGERS IN THE SE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER AVIATION...FITZGERALD HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1014 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP THE EAST COAST MAY SPREAD A VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW INTO SOUTHEASTERN PA TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOWS COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SNOWBELT WITH DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... EVER SO SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT IN QPF AXIS BRINGS A FEW MORE TENTHS OF SNOW ACCUM TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE OFFING THIS EVENING. WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING THIS EVENING OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL TRACK ALONG THE OUTER NC BANKS OVERNIGHT AND OFFSHORE BEFORE HEADING NORTHEAST AND WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL BRUSH THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK. CLOUDS WILL TAKE A BREAK IN THE CENTRAL COS TONIGHT AS THE LLVL FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE LESS CYCLONIC. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF SCT/ISOLD SHSN IN THE NW THO AS THE STRONG VORT MAX NEAR PA FROM THE W. THE FLOW IS STILL OFF THE LAKE AND UPSLOPE INTO THE HIGHER ELEVS OF PA. JUST A DUSTING THERE AS WELL. MINS WILL BE LOWEST IN THE NW WHERE CAA BRINGS 8H TEMPS DOWN TO DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW 0C. THE OFFSHORE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NW AND THE AXIS OF THE JET STREAM PASSES OUR LONGITUDE EVEN BEFORE SUNRISE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... SNOW SHOULD SCOOT EAST OF LANCASTER COUNTY BY OR AFTER 700 AM. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR ON ALL FRONTS WITH THE LOW WELL OFF TO THE NE AND VORT MAX/SHORT WAVE OVERHEAD IN THE MORNING. WILL LINGER MENTION OF --SHSN IN THE ALLEGHENIES FOR THE MORNING. ELSEWHERE...THE NWRLY WIND WILL PICK BACK UP. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT OVER MOST OF THE CWA. TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY NEAR NORMAL FOR MAXES WITH NIL ADVECTION AND 8H TEMPS AROUND -10C. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODERATELY AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOW DOWN THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. PATTERN WILL TRANSITIONS TO A WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH A CORRESPONDING DOWNSTREAM UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. AFTER A QUIET START TO THE PERIOD THIS WEEKEND...THE WEATHER WILL TREND COLDER AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR AND SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN AT THIS POINT APPEARS LOW TO MODERATE. MAIN THREAT WILL BE IN THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME...WITH POSSIBLE COASTAL DEVELOPMENT STILL HINTED AT THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. LATEST TRENDS HOWEVER ARE FOR DEVELOPMENT TO BE FARTHER EAST THAN YESTERDAYS SOLUTIONS. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN ACROSS CENTRAL PA THRU 06Z WILL BE MVFR STRATOCU DECK/SCT FLURRIES AT KBFD/KJST ASSOC WITH WEAK OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVR THE MTNS. FOCUS LATE TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TOWARD SE PA...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRES LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST. ALL THE LATEST MDL DATA SUGGESTS KLNS WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOW /IFR/ VSBYS AT KLNS BTWN 08Z-12Z FRIDAY. LATEST HRRR OUTPUT AS OF 03Z SUGGESTS THE SIG VIS REDUCTIONS MAY REMAIN JUST EAST OF KLNS...BUT TOO CLOSE TO CALL ATTM. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST MVFR CONDS AT KBFD AND KJST FRIDAY MORNING WITH OCNL -SHSN. LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR PRODUCTS SUGGEST OCNL IFR CONDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT KBFD/KJST EARLY FRIDAY AM...AS BLYR MOISTURE/-SHSN INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE W. ANY SNOW AT KLNS SHOULD END BY ARND 11Z. FOCUS WILL THEN BE ON LINGERING STRATOCU ACROSS THE W MTNS. MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EVEN KBFD/KJST WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDS BY AFTN...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. OUTLOOK... SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. MON-TUE...SNOW/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY W MTNS. && .HYDROLOGY... OBVIOUS ICE EFFECTS AT MARIETTA WILL CONTINUE FOR QUITE A WHILE. BUT FLOWS ARE NOT VERY HIGH. THE LOCAL STREAMS WILL START TO COME DOWN SOME...BUT SHOW DAILY AFTN BUMPS UP AS RESIDUAL SNOW MELTS WITH AFTN TEMPS IN THE 40S EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHERE PATCHY SNOW LINGERS IN THE SE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER AVIATION...FITZGERALD HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
806 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP THE EAST COAST MAY SPREAD A VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW INTO SOUTHEASTERN PA TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOWS COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SNOWBELT WITH DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... EVER SO SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT IN QPF AXIS BRINGS A FEW MORE TENTHS OF SNOW ACCUM TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE OFFING THIS EVENING. WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING THIS EVENING OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL TRACK ALONG THE OUTER NC BANKS OVERNIGHT AND OFFSHORE BEFORE HEADING NORTHEAST AND WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL BRUSH THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK. CLOUDS WILL TAKE A BREAK IN THE CENTRAL COS TONIGHT AS THE LLVL FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE LESS CYCLONIC. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF SCT/ISOLD SHSN IN THE NW THO AS THE STRONG VORT MAX NEAR PA FROM THE W. THE FLOW IS STILL OFF THE LAKE AND UPSLOPE INTO THE HIGHER ELEVS OF PA. JUST A DUSTING THERE AS WELL. MINS WILL BE LOWEST IN THE NW WHERE CAA BRINGS 8H TEMPS DOWN TO DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW 0C. THE OFFSHORE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NW AND THE AXIS OF THE JET STREAM PASSES OUR LONGITUDE EVEN BEFORE SUNRISE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... SNOW SHOULD SCOOT EAST OF LANCASTER COUNTY BY OR AFTER 700 AM. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR ON ALL FRONTS WITH THE LOW WELL OFF TO THE NE AND VORT MAX/SHORT WAVE OVERHEAD IN THE MORNING. WILL LINGER MENTION OF --SHSN IN THE ALLEGHENIES FOR THE MORNING. ELSEWHERE...THE NWRLY WIND WILL PICK BACK UP. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT OVER MOST OF THE CWA. TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY NEAR NORMAL FOR MAXES WITH NIL ADVECTION AND 8H TEMPS AROUND -10C. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODERATELY AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOW DOWN THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. PATTERN WILL TRANSITIONS TO A WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH A CORRESPONDING DOWNSTREAM UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. AFTER A QUIET START TO THE PERIOD THIS WEEKEND...THE WEATHER WILL TREND COLDER AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR AND SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN AT THIS POINT APPEARS LOW TO MODERATE. MAIN THREAT WILL BE IN THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME...WITH POSSIBLE COASTAL DEVELOPMENT STILL HINTED AT THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. LATEST TRENDS HOWEVER ARE FOR DEVELOPMENT TO BE FARTHER EAST THAN YESTERDAYS SOLUTIONS. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING WILL BE MVFR STRATOCU DECK/SCT FLURRIES AT KBFD/KJST ASSOC WITH WEAK OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVR THE MTNS. FOCUS LATE TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TOWARD SE PA...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRES LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST. ALL THE LATEST MDL DATA SUGGESTS KLNS WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOW /IFR/ VSBYS AT KLNS BTWN 07Z-11Z FRIDAY. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SNOW AT KMDT...BUT BLEND OF AVAILABLE MDLS SUGGESTS THIS IS A LOW PROBABILITY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST MVFR CONDS AT KBFD AND KJST LATE TONIGHT WITH OCNL -SHSN. LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR PRODUCTS SUGGEST OCNL IFR CONDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT KBFD/KJST EARLY FRIDAY AM...AS -SHSN INCREASE UPON APPROACH OF DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE W. ANY SNOW AT KLNS SHOULD END BY ARND 11Z. FOCUS WILL THEN BE ON LINGERING STRATOCU ACROSS THE W MTNS. MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EVEN KBFD/KJST WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDS BY AFTN...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. OUTLOOK... SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. MON-TUE...SNOW/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY W MTNS. && .HYDROLOGY... OBVIOUS ICE EFFECTS AT MARIETTA WILL CONTINUE FOR QUITE A WHILE. BUT FLOWS ARE NOT VERY HIGH. THE LOCAL STREAMS WILL START TO COME DOWN SOME...BUT SHOW DAILY AFTN BUMPS UP AS RESIDUAL SNOW MELTS WITH AFTN TEMPS IN THE 40S EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHERE PATCHY SNOW LINGERS IN THE SE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER AVIATION...FITZGERALD HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
712 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP THE EAST COAST MAY SPREAD A VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW INTO SOUTHEASTERN PA TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOWS COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SNOWBELT WITH DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... THE 150KT JET STREAK ALOFT WILL TILT TO NEARLY N-S ORIENTATION AND THE FAVORABLE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF THE STREAK SHOULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG AN OLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. THE SFC LOW WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST FAR ENOUGH TO MAKE VERY LITTLE IMPACT ON THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW SLIDE IN FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT. MOST MODEL AND SREF MEAN QPF DO MAKE MEAS PRECIP OVER FAR ERN LANC CO. THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS JUST HOW FAR DOES THIS BACK/NWRN EDGE OF THE SNOW GET INTO THE CWA - IF AT ALL. THE DRYING NNW FLOW WILL KEEP THE EDGE SHARP AND IT IS THAT CHALLENGE WHICH AWAITS US TONIGHT. WITH THE PREPONDERANCE OF EVIDENCE POINTING TO A GUILTY VERDICT /VERY MINOR ACCUM/...WILL KEEP THE DUSTING TO AN INCH ACCUMS IN THE CURR FCST FOR LNAC CO. HAVE INCHED POPS UP TO THE WEST A LITTLE INTO YORK CO...MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO THE MORE-WET 12Z RUNS. THE STRONG JET MAX IS THE BIGGEST MASS-FEATURE TO MOVE THE FORECAST TO A MORE DEVELOPED SYSTEM. IT MAY BE A GOOD TREND TO FOLLOW...BUT A CONSERVATIVE BUMP IN POPS TO EVEN CHC LEVELS IS BEST WHEN DEALING WHEN ADDING THE SIMPLE YET REACTION-CAUSING /SNOW/ WORD TO THE FORECAST. AGAIN...ALL THIS IS VERY HEAVY ON CONTINUITY AND ALSO IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES THINKING. CLOUDS WILL TAKE A BREAK IN THE CENTRAL COS TONIGHT AS THE LLVL FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE LESS CYCLONIC. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF SCT/ISOLD SHSN IN THE NW THO AS THE STRONG VORT MAX NEAR PA FROM THE W. THE FLOW IS STILL OFF THE LAKE AND UPSLOPE INTO THE HIGHER ELEVS OF PA. JUST A DUSTING THERE AS WELL. MINS WILL BE LOWEST IN THE NW WHERE CAA BRINGS 8H TEMPS DOWN TO DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW 0C. THE OFFSHORE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NW AND THE AXIS OF THE JET STREAM PASSES OUR LONGITUDE EVEN BEFORE SUNRISE. SO...IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BEGIN AND ANY LIGHT SNOW IN THE EAST SHOULD STOP IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR ON ALL FRONTS WITH THE LOW WELL OFF TO THE NE AND VORT MAX/SHORT WAVE OVERHEAD IN THE MORNING. WILL LINGER MENTION OF --SHSN IN THE ALLEGHENIES FOR THE MORNING. ELSEWHERE...THE NWRLY WIND WILL PICK BACK UP. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT OVER MOST OF THE CWA. TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY NEAR NORMAL FOR MAXES WITH NIL ADVECTION AND 8H TEMPS AROUND -10C. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODERATELY AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOW DOWN THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. PATTERN WILL TRANSITIONS TO A WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH A CORRESPONDING DOWNSTREAM UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. AFTER A QUIET START TO THE PERIOD THIS WEEKEND...THE WEATHER WILL TREND COLDER AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR AND SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN AT THIS POINT APPEARS LOW TO MODERATE. MAIN THREAT WILL BE IN THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME...WITH POSSIBLE COASTAL DEVELOPMENT STILL HINTED AT THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. LATEST TRENDS HOWEVER ARE FOR DEVELOPMENT TO BE FARTHER EAST THAN YESTERDAYS SOLUTIONS. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING WILL BE MVFR STRATOCU DECK/SCT FLURRIES AT KBFD/KJST ASSOC WITH WEAK OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVR THE MTNS. FOCUS LATE TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TOWARD SE PA...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRES LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST. ALL THE LATEST MDL DATA SUGGESTS KLNS WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOW /IFR/ VSBYS AT KLNS BTWN 07Z-11Z FRIDAY. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SNOW AT KMDT...BUT BLEND OF AVAILABLE MDLS SUGGESTS THIS IS A LOW PROBABILITY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST MVFR CONDS AT KBFD AND KJST LATE TONIGHT WITH OCNL -SHSN. LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR PRODUCTS SUGGEST OCNL IFR CONDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT KBFD/KJST EARLY FRIDAY AM...AS -SHSN INCREASE UPON APPROACH OF DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE W. ANY SNOW AT KLNS SHOULD END BY ARND 11Z. FOCUS WILL THEN BE ON LINGERING STRATOCU ACROSS THE W MTNS. MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EVEN KBFD/KJST WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDS BY AFTN...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. OUTLOOK... SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. MON-TUE...SNOW/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY W MTNS. && .HYDROLOGY... OBVIOUS ICE EFFECTS AT MARIETTA WILL CONTINUE FOR QUITE A WHILE. BUT FLOWS ARE NOT VERY HIGH. THE LOCAL STREAMS WILL START TO COME DOWN SOME...BUT SHOW DAILY AFTN BUMPS UP AS RESIDUAL SNOW MELTS WITH AFTN TEMPS IN THE 40S EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHERE PATCHY SNOW LINGERS IN THE SE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER AVIATION...FITZGERALD HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
952 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ON SUNDAY WELL OFFSHORE ALONG THIS FRONT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 945 PM EST...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE LATEST RAP 500 MB HEIGHT PROGNOSTICS DEPICT THE POTENT UPPER VORTICITY LOBE ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE SW NC MOUNTAINS LATE THIS EVENING. RADAR CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME INTERMITTENT 5 TO 10 DBZ REFLECTIVITY RETURNS OVER OUR AREA...BUT WITHOUT ANY COHERENT SHOWERS YET. THIS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE SLOWER THAN THE LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS...BUT WITH MODEL DEVELOPMENT STILL MORE SOLIDLY FOCUSED ON THE 06Z TO 10Z PERIOD FOR MOST OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...PROFILES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY COOL AND NEARLY ALL THE MODELS NOW HAVE SOME MOISTURE DEVELOPING VERTICALLY TOWARD THE SNOW GROWTH REGION OVERNIGHT AND ALLOWING SHOWERS TO FORM...WITH A PTYPE MIX OVER TO SNOW UNDER ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WILL GENERALLY STAY THE COURSE ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...EXCEPT FOR YET ANOTHER SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT ON POP INTO A MORE SOLID CHANCE RANGE TOWARD THE CLT METRO AREA. STILL FEEL A QUICK DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT UNDER ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT MUCH MORE LIKELY IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE THE MORE PERSISTENT NW FLOW...BETTER MOISTURE...AND COLDER AIR/SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL EXIST. NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE WIND ADVISORY...BUT WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS NOW EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE AREA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS RAPIDLY BETWEEN THE APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST AND THE DEEPENING NC COASTAL LOW TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND A SUNNY WINTER DAY. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY ABATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...ON SATURDAY...AN AMPLIFIED H5 TROF WILL RIPPLE TOWARD THE SRN. APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE TROF MAY CLOSE OFF AND PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT. MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. I WILL INDICATE A DRY FORECAST FORECAST FOR SAT...WITH INCREASING SKY COVER. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN THE DAY WITH LOW 20S ACROSS THE MTNS TO UPPER 20S EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE MID 40S WITHIN MTN VALLEYS TO AROUND 50. ON SUNDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW...SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER REGION. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST WILL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEKEND THRU MONDAY. THIS RESULTS IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN TROF IN THE UPPER LEVELS. AS THE TROF DIGS ACROSS THE OH AND MID MS VALLEY...STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...GENERALLY STRONGEST MONDAY MORNING. THE QG FORCING SHUD SUPPLY DECENT VERTICAL MOTION...AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH 850-500MB RATES ABOVE 7C/KM ON ALL THE OP MODELS...AND EVEN SOME CONVECTIVE INSTBY IN THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME STACKED WITH DEEP LAYER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP THE CWFA WITHIN THE SE QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION. SO UPSLOPE WILL BE STRONGEST ON SW-FACING SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NC MOUNTAINS. TEMPS AND THICKNESSES WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH SNOW LEVELS LIKELY TO BE MAINLY ABOVE 3500 FT. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND STRONGER FORCING IS REALIZED...WET-BULB EFFECTS MAY PRODUCE SOME MEASURABLE SNOW IN THE VALLEYS. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS MAY ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS...BUT WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...NO SNOW IS EXPECTED. MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF WILL CROSS THE CWFA...PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING...AND ALSO STEEP LAPSE RATES. THICKNESSES ARE COOLER THAN MONDAY...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE MAINLY SNOW OR PERHAPS A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH/EAST OF I-85. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT THE BULK OF ANY QPF TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY MORNING...AND STAY WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS THRU TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE ABOVE 3500 FT...AND GENERALLY LIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS BELOW 3500 FT. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE ON TUESDAY...THE NC FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT MAY SEE LIGHT ACCUMS AS WELL. TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...THE UPPER FLOW DEAMPLIFIES...BUT REMAIN IN A WESTERN RIDGE-EASTERN TROF SETUP THRU THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...AS AN ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION...THEN SHUD GRADUALLY MODERATE BACK TOWARD NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AT KCLT...PESKY MVFR CIGS FINALLY LET GO EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...APPROACHING UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH SLOWLY DEEPENING MOISTURE SHOULD LOCK LOWER END VFR CIGS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE PASSING SHORTWAVE THAT PEAKS FORCING OVER THE KCLT AREA MAINLY 07Z TO 11Z. WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A TEMPO FOR SNOW SHOWERS AS THE COLDER THICKENESSES/TEMPS SHOULD BE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST BY THAT TIME...ALONG WITH SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING UNDER ANY SHOWERS. THE NRLY FLOW GRADIENT WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS WELL...AND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE SFC LOW MOVES UP THE COAST...THEN SLOWLY ABATE THROUGH THE AFTN. SOME LIGHT DAYBREAK SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT UNDER ANY BRIEFLY HEAVY SHOWERS...BUT THE EVENT DURATION WILL BE TOO SHORT FOR ANY ADVISORY/AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING PRODUCTS AT PRESENT. ELSEWHERE...VFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AND LOWER AS THE PASSING UPPER WAVE RAPIDLY INCREASES FORCING IN THE COLUMN INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL WRAP WESTWARD FROM THE COASTAL SYSTEM TO PERMIT ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY SNOW...AT TIMES OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A VCSH MENTION AT THIS POINT. NW FLOW MOISTURE COULD ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO FLIRT WITH KAVL AS WELL...BUT THESE SHOULD STAY CLOSER TO THE TN BORDER. WIND GUSTS WILL STEADILY DEVELOP AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 POSSIBLE AT KAVL AND INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS. THE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SKIES CLEARING. OUTLOOK...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY. CONFIDENCE TABLE... 03-09Z 09-15Z 15-21Z 21-00Z KCLT HIGH 85% HIGH 88% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAVL LOW 55% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% KAND HIGH 85% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ033-049-050-501- 503-505. SC...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEO NEAR TERM...HG SHORT TERM...NED LONG TERM...ARK AVIATION...HG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
436 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE PIEDMONT BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE OVERHEAD FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM EST WEDNESDAY... EXPECT AN ACTIVE WX DAY IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS MORNING...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED FROM MICHIGAN TO IOWA...WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD INTO MID TN. AHEAD OF THIS 8H LOW LVL JET IS SCREAMING AT 60KTS+ OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A WEDGE HOLDS IN PLACE OVER MOST OF OUR CWA AND THIS IS ACTING TO BLOCK STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS AS WELL AS THE FAR SW CWA REMAIN ON THE EDGE OF THE WEDGE SO WIND ADVISORY GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 10AM. BY THIS TIME...THE SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WHICH IS WHEN THE DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OF THE WINDS TEND TO LESSEN OVER THE MTN EMPIRE. ANOTHER ISSUE TODAY WILL BE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. UNSEASONABLY HIGH PWATS WILL PUNCH IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THIS STRONG LOW LVL JET. PWATS WILL BE IN THE 1.25 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE RUNNING 3-4 SD ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN GETTING THIS DOWN PRETTY WELL...BUT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING ARISE...WITH OUR LOCAL WRF AND THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF SLOWER IN PUSHING THE RAINFALL ACROSS...WHILE THE LATER HRRR/HIGHRES ARW AND GFS ARE QUICKER. THINK WITH A STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT THIS WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THE MODEL CAMPS. WILL SEE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS WORK INTO THE WV MTNS BY 12-14Z...THEN SHIFT EAST AS NARROW DEEP HEAVY RAIN LINE EMBEDDED WITH THE GENERAL MODERATE SHOWERS TO THE BLUE RIDGE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH THE GROUND REMAINING SATURATED FROM SNOWMELT AND 6 HR FFG RUNNING UNDER 1.5 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS...WE COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. THINKING IT WILL BE MORE ENHANCED ALONG AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY...WITH THE SRLY JET IN PLACE. AS SUCH AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO HAVE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH OUT FOR THE BLUE RIDGE OF NC INTO VA...WITH POTENTIAL FOR 2"+ INCHES OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE SRN BLUE RIDGE FROM FLOYD/PATRICK SOUTHWEST TO BOONE/BLOWING ROCK NC. WPC HAS INDICATED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA...BUT OUTSIDE THE BLUE RIDGE THINK ANYTHING WILL BE ISOLATED. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SITUATED FROM THE NC PIEDMONT TOWARD SOUTHSIDE VA BY AFTERNOON...SO ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE FOR FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF A ROCKY MOUNT VA TO YADKINVILLE NC LINE. SVR THREAT IS MARGINAL AT BEST EAST WITH STRONG WINDS THE MAIN THREAT...BUT THINK LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT SVR CONVECTION. ADDED GUSTY WINDS TO THE FORECAST WITH THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHSIDE VA AREA AND NW NC PIEDMONT. WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO ERODE FAIRLY QUICKLY ONCE SFC FRONT MOVES INTO THE MTNS THIS MORNING...SO DID A NON-DIURNAL CURVE GIVEN WARMING TEMPS THIS MORNING IN THE WESTERN CWA...THEN COOLING OFF THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE RAIN ENDING LATE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MILD AND SPRINGLIKE WITH LOWER TO MID 60S OVER MOST OF THE AREA. TONIGHT...THE FRONT SLOWS UP AS IT ELONGATED PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW...BUT SHOULD BE EAST OF US BY MIDNIGHT. HUNG ONTO HIGHER POPS THIS EVENING FROM LYNCHBURG AND DANVILLE EAST WHILE DRYING THINGS OUT WEST. SHOULD SEE DRIER PUNCHING INTO THE PIEDMONT BEFORE DAWN WHILE UPSLOPE STARTS TO GENERATE LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WEST. COLD AIR MAY LAG GIVEN SLOWNESS OF UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S EAST TO LOWER 30S WEST. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 237 AM EST WEDNESDAY... THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL STALL ALONG THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE OHIO-TENN VALLEYS BY THURSDAY EVENING...GENERATING A SURFACE REFLECTION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS REFLECTION MAY BUCKLE MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE COASTAL PIEDMONT THURSDAY EVENING. THE 00Z NAM MOVES AN AREA OF RAIN OVER THE VA/NC PIEDMONT WHILE OTHER MODELS REMAIN DRY. WE WILL RUN WITH THE DRIER SOLUTION AS WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW PROMOTES DRYING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY MORNING...PUSHING THE SURFACE REFLECTION AND MOISTURE OUT TO SEA. A CHILLY SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG WESTERN SLOPES OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. THE 00Z GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL DISPLAYING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH A MAINLY WEST WIND AND MOISTURE BECOMING VERY SHALLOW THROUGH THE DAY...WILL ONLY CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW UP TO AN INCH IN WESTERN GREENBRIER. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE BREEZY WHILE TEMPERATURES RUN NEAR NORMAL. AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEND TEMPERATURES && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 400 PM EST TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DRIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL START A PERIOD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY...BUT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS THAT WILL WEAKEN THE WARMING TREND. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...TWO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS APPROACH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE NORTHERN ONE WILL CROSS OVER QUEBEC AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE SHOULD MOVE ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODELS KEEP THIS SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE. THE SOUTHERN TROUGH WILL GENERATE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...AND TRACK IT TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPEARS TO STAY JUST OFFSHORE AND NOT IMPACT THE CWA. BY SUNDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EMERGE WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM OVER THE DAKOTAS...AND DIG SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH...THAT WILL SPARK AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ON MONDAY...TO KEEP THE APPROACHING MOISTURE FROM THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AS RAIN...EXCEPT FOR THE COLDER WESTERN SLOPES WHERE IT MAY START AS SNOW. ONCE A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE PRECIPITATION WOULD TURN OVER TO ALL SNOW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SINCE THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE MODELS DIVERGING ON THE TRACK OF THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM...JUST CHANCE POPS WERE UTILIZED. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 1141 PM EST TUESDAY... MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SHAPED POPS/WEATHER IN TAF TOWARDS HIGHRES MODELS SLOWER TIMING. BELIEVE THE HRRR CAPTURED RAIN AND TIMING THE BEST. WARMER AIR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER CEILINGS/VISBYS OVERNIGHT WITH ALL TAF LOCATIONS AT IFR CEILINGS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AND MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL KEEP WINDS GUSTY AT BLF THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND GUSTY WINDS OF 15-25KTS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES. THE COLD FRONT ISN`T EXPECTED TO CROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES...WIND DIRECTIONS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS SLOWLY SUBSIDING. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING REACHING THE COAST BY EARLY THURSDAY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... BY LATE THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TO PROVIDE COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS... AND ALSO PROVIDE A RECOVERY TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY... UNSEASONABLY HIGH PWATS...STRONG LOW LVL JET AND SATURATED GROUNDS COMBINED WITH SLOWER MOVING LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS TODAY. FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM TODAY. EXPECT THE HEAVIER RAINFALL TO OCCUR IN THE 9AM TO 4 PM TIME FRAME. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VARIES ACROSS RIVER FORECAST CENTER BOUNDARIES...BUT LEANING TOWARD THE LOWER THRESHOLD OF 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN 6 HRS TO CAUSE PROBLEMS. COULD SEE URBAN FLOODING AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IN THE BOONE NC AREA...AND POSSIBLY IN ROANOKE. IF THE SYSTEM SPEEDS UP...THE FLOOD THREAT IS GOING TO BE LESS...BUT GIVEN UPSTREAM TRENDS AND THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LVLS WHICH WILL RUN MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...THINK SLOWER SCENARIO IS MORE LIKELY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR DOWNSTREAM RIVERS LATER INTO TONIGHT/THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY THE JAMES/ROANOKE AND DAN RIVER BASINS. POTENTIAL PER 12Z SREF FOR THE GREENBRIER RIVER AT ALDERSON TO FLOOD. THIS IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM GIVEN THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER UPSTREAM OVER THE MTNS OF ERN WV. BUT AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH IN WV. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 400 AM EST WEDNESDAY... MAINTENANCE WAS BEEN CONDUCTED ON THE KFCX RADAR TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME TRANSMITTER AND RECEIVER ALARMS...SO THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THE RADAR COULD GO DOWN. TECHNICIANS WILL LOOK AT IT AGAIN TODAY. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ015>017- 022>024-032>035. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007-009-015. NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ001>003-018- 019. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-018. WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ042. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...CF/KK HYDROLOGY...PM/WP EQUIPMENT...PM/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1141 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL REMAIN WEDGED AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY AS THE WINTER STORM ADVANCES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO EASTERN CANADA. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 1125 PM EST TUESDAY... ADJUSTED POPS FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SLOWED THE ONSET OF RAIN...AND TWEAKED POPS TOWARDS LATEST HRRR SOLUTION. THE AREA OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN SHRINKING TONIGHT. ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM TO FAR WEST MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN IN A FEW LOCATION WITH CURRENT SURFACE OBS. USED HOURLY TEMPERATURES FOR CALCULATION OF OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. AS OF 830 PM EST TUESDAY... EXPANDED WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE MERCER SOUTHWARD TO WATAGUA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA FOR THE SOUTHEAST WINDS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE COUNTIES TEND TO BE OUR FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR THE STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS. A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST LOCATIONS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS WOULD BE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. ONE OF THE HINDERING FACTORS WILL BE IF THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION/CLOUD LAYER WILL STOP SOME OF THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH THE CURRENT OBS AND MODEL TRENDS. THE HIRESW-ARW AND RNK WRFARW AND HRRR HAVE A SLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE RAIN TONIGHT. DECIDED TO LOWER POPS FOR THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...RAIN WILL ARRIVE FOR THE WEST AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA. MORE CHANGES LATER TONIGHT.... AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY... WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS NOSED DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH SHALLOW STABLE LAYER PROMOTING NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS BELOW 800 MB. CLOUDS ARE THE LOWEST AND THICKEST ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CREST FROM THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NC NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NRV OF VA AND INTO SOUTHEAST WV. CLOUD BASES WERE HIGHER ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND INTO THE PIEDMONT...THE DRY NORTHEAST WIND EVEN PROMOTING SOME CLEARING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN VA. RAIN THREAT TO THIS POINT HAS BEEN MINIMAL WITH THE ONLY REPORTS OF PRECIPITATION COMING FROM THE RIDGE TOPS NEAR THE APPALACHIAN CREST WHERE DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BUT WEAKEN AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE ACTUAL FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING THE MS RIVER VALLEY...TRAILING FROM LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA. THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE GREAT LAKES BY DAWN WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO OUR REGION...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PER INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO OVERRUN THE COOL WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL SHOWERS. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO BEGIN THE PROCESS OF ERODING THE COOL WEDGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN STEADY OR RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT RIDGE TOP LEVEL CLOSER TO THE TOP OF THE INVERSION. THE MAIN EMPHASIS FOR RAIN WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS 800MB LOW LVL JET STREAKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FEEDING HIGHER PWATS INTO THE AREA. AS SUCH WILL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN PER INCREASING UPSLOPE AND OVERRUNNING WIND FLOW...AND IN ADDITION TO THE ARRIVAL OF A LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE NEARING OUR WRN CWA BORDER BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR COVERAGE OF RAIN TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA ENGULFED IN A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN BY 12Z/7AM WED. DONT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WITH THE PASSING LINE OF CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM...BUT THE OVERALL INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED FOR OUR CWA PER THE LINGERING STABLE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. ATTM WILL ENTERTAIN A WIND THREAT PRIMARILY PRIMARILY FOR NON CONVECTIVE CONCERNS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE...SPECIFICALLY TAZEWELL AND SMYTH COUNTIES WHERE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE DUE TO SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME RIDGETOP GUSTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE FARTHER EAST ABOVE THE STABLE WEDGE...BUT IT APPEARS THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH COVERAGE TO JUSTIFY A WIND ADVISORY ATTM. MODEL QPF HAS BEEN TRENDING UP WITH THIS SYSTEM. PLEASE SEE HYDRO SECTION OF THIS AFD FOR DETAILS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM EST TUESDAY... THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE RAIN SHOWERS TO SUBSIDE IN THE PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE...COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ENSUE...AND SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW THAT THE WIND WILL NOT QUITE BE FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT RATHER FROM THE NORTH- NORTHWEST. THIS SETUP IS NOT AS IDEAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...SO ONLY A LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED. BY THURSDAY...CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE...ALTHOUGH NOT SO QUICKLY IN THE WESTERN SLOPES AND IN THE PIEDMONT EAST OF A LINE FROM LYNCHBURG TO DANVILLE. THE ECMWF SOLUTION MOVES THE COLD FRONT SLOWER TOWARD THE EAST COAST THAN THE GFS...AND ALSO TRIES TO DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO BUCKLE SOME MOISTURE BACK TOWARD THE PIEDMONT BY EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. IT SEEMS THAT THE ECMWF MAY BE TOO SLOW...SO THE FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS SOLUTION WAS FAVORED IN THIS FORECAST. AS A RESULT...JUST DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FINALLY BUILD OVERHEAD AFTER MIDNIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR EVERYWHERE IN THE CWA...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE SUNNY BUT STILL COOL. THE HIGH SHOULD SHIFT OVER THE PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAY NOT COOL AS MUCH DUE TO A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND THE FLOW SLOWLY TURNING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY HELD ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE...WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 400 PM EST TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DRIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL START A PERIOD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY...BUT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS THAT WILL WEAKEN THE WARMING TREND. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...TWO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS APPROACH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE NORTHERN ONE WILL CROSS OVER QUEBEC AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE SHOULD MOVE ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODELS KEEP THIS SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE. THE SOUTHERN TROUGH WILL GENERATE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...AND TRACK IT TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPEARS TO STAY JUST OFFSHORE AND NOT IMPACT THE CWA. BY SUNDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EMERGE WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM OVER THE DAKOTAS...AND DIG SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH...THAT WILL SPARK AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ON MONDAY...TO KEEP THE APPROACHING MOISTURE FROM THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AS RAIN...EXCEPT FOR THE COLDER WESTERN SLOPES WHERE IT MAY START AS SNOW. ONCE A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE PRECIPITATION WOULD TURN OVER TO ALL SNOW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SINCE THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE MODELS DIVERGING ON THE TRACK OF THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM...JUST CHANCE POPS WERE UTILIZED. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 1141 PM EST TUESDAY... MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SHAPED POPS/WEATHER IN TAF TOWARDS HIGHRES MODELS SLOWER TIMING. BELIEVE THE HRRR CAPTURED RAIN AND TIMING THE BEST. WARMER AIR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER CEILINGS/VISBYS OVERNIGHT WITH ALL TAF LOCATIONS AT IFR CEILINGS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AND MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL KEEP WINDS GUSTY AT BLF THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND GUSTY WINDS OF 15-25KTS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES. THE COLD FRONT ISNT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES...WIND DIRECTIONS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS SLOWLY SUBSIDING. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING REACHING THE COAST BY EARLY THURSDAY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... BY LATE THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TO PROVIDE COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS... AND ALSO PROVIDE A RECOVERY TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING HIGHER FOR QPF WITH WEDNESDAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE...AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.75 TO 1.25...WITH SOME ISOLATED 1.50 INCH AMOUNTS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS SORT OF RAINFALL WILL GENERATE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA STREAMS...POTENTIALLY TO NEAR BANKFULL IN SOME INSTANCES. IF TRENDS CONTINUE TO GO HIGHER THEN A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 100 PM EST TUESDAY... MAINTENANCE HAS BEEN CONDUCTED ON THE KFCX RADAR. THE RADAR IS BACK UP AND RUNNING BUT MAY CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE INTERMITTENT OUTAGES. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ007-009-015. NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ001-018. WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ042. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KK/PM NEAR TERM...KK/PM SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...CF/KK HYDROLOGY...PM EQUIPMENT...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1125 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 934 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016 PRIMARY SNOW BAND FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS LIFTED NORTH AND INTO EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WHILE IN A RELATIVE LULL THIS EVENING...THERE HAVE BEEN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW MIXED AT TIMES WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN/SLEET. SOME AREAS HAVE SEEN A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE...RESULTING IN SLICK CONDITIONS. STILL SEEING SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WEST OF THE MS RIVER...BUT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEEN LIMITED...SO LIKELY SEEING MORE OF A DRIFTING THAN BLOWING SCENARIO. 03.03Z ANALYSIS SHOWS THE RESPONSIBLE SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL IA. TO THE NORTHWEST...THERE IS STRONG 925 TO 850 HPA FRONTOGENESIS AND THIS ALIGNS WELL WITH A MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BAND FROM JUST EAST OF OMAHA TO CHARLES CITY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS NOT HANDLING THIS SNOW BAND WELL...BUT FOLLOWING THE LOW- LEVEL FORCING...THIS SNOW BAND SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 1SM AT TIMES...SO SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE. THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY RATHER STRONG OMEGA IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE PER RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. ALL SAID...LOOK FOR ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL NOT MAKE ANY HEADLINE CHANGES AT THIS TIME... ALTHOUGH CERTAIN PORTIONS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 12Z WEDNESDAY. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016 THE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES TO MAKE NORTHWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH WHILE THE SECONDARY DEFORMATION BAND TAKES SHAPE FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE 02.12Z MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF SHOWING A FRONTOGENESIS BAND SETTING UP IN THIS REGION ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHOWING THIS TO BE ON THE WEAK SIDE. SO WHILE IT WILL CONTINUE TO SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THIS DEFORMATION AREA...ACCUMULATIONS UNDER THIS MAY ONLY BE A COUPLE OF INCHES AT BEST. FARTHER TO THE EAST OVER NORTHEAST IOWA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THE CONCERN STILL REMAINS WHETHER THERE WILL BE A LOSS OF ICE IN THE DRY SLOT. THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE SHOULD BE A TOTAL LOSS OF ICE OVER THIS AREA BUT CONCERNED THIS MAY NOT BE OCCURRING. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES FROM SATELLITE DATA INDICATE ICE IS STILL IN THE CLOUDS DOWN TO ABOUT CENTRAL IOWA AND THEN THERE LOOKS TO A LOSS OF ICE. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS LOSS OF ICE COMING INTO THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING RAIN. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME ICING WITH A GLAZE OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES PAST THE AREA...THE WINDS WILL TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP. WIND GUSTS OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN SHOULD GET BACK INTO THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE TO PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW. JUST HOW MUCH BLOWING SNOW OCCURS COULD BE IMPACTED ON WHETHER THE FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN OCCURS AND PUTS A HARD COATING ON TOP OF THE SNOW. THE 02.12Z MODEL DATA ALSO CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE OVERNIGHT WITH THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS LATE TONIGHT. THIS FORCING LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH AS ICE ALOFT COMES BACK INTO THE AREA TO PRODUCE A SMALLER AREA OF ENHANCED SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOOKING TO GET ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS SECONDARY PUSH. BASED ON ALL THIS...THE ONLY PLANNED CHANGE TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES TO TAKE THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE AREA AND DOWNGRADE THE WARNING TO AN ADVISORY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND STILL LOOKING AT ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO COME DOWN OUT OF CANADA AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE MOISTURE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE TO RECOVER AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SO ONLY EXPECTING A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A BIT MORE LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ALSO BRINGING IT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016 ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DROP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER THAN THE THURSDAY WAVE...BUT AGAIN THERE WILL BE VERY LIMITED TIME FOR ANY MOISTURE RETURN TO OCCUR. AS A RESULT...NOT EXPECTING THIS WAVE TO BE ABLE TO PRODUCE MUCH SNOW EITHER AND WILL HAVE SOME 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE PARADE OF NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEMS WILL THEN CONTINUE WITH YET ANOTHER ONE COMING IN FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS POINT...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGEST OF THESE NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEMS AND WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CARRY SOME 20 TO 40 PERCENT SNOW CHANCES FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES CENTERED ON SUNDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016 MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED AWAY FROM TAF AIRFIELDS... ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL ONE MORE ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS IA THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MUCH OF THIS SNOW SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF I-90. WILL ADD TEMPO GROUPS FOR BRIEF WORSENING CONDITIONS...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT IMPROVED VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED LOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. LAST OF THE SNOW SHOULD FINALLY MOVE EAST OF TAF AIRFIELDS BY 03.12Z...ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. EXPECT GUSTS FROM 24 TO 30 KTS AT BOTH AIRFIELDS WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BLSN AT KRST WITH THESE WINDS. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT AFTER 03.18Z WITH AN EXPECTANT SCATTERING OUT OF THE CLOUD DECK LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ017-029- 032>034-041>044-053. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ054-055- 061. MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088- 094>096. IA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ008>010-018- 019. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ011-029- 030. && $$ UPDATE...ROGERS SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM...04 AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1034 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 212 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016 ...SOME LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT... MAIN WX FOCUS FOR THE NEXT 24 H WILL BE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH CO TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SRN UT AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SN SHOWERS IN ERN UT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. SNOW AMTS OUT WEST HAVE BEEN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS IN LIQUID...BUT WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED A BIT AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND SOME LEE SIDE COLUMN STRETCHING OCCURS. PV ANALYSIS AND MODEL FORECASTS SHOW BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP OCCURRING IN THE 03Z TO 09Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. FARTHER EAST...SN PROBABILITIES LOOK CONSIDERABLY LESS. THE LATEST HRRR IS CATCHING ON TO THIS POTENTIAL AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND IS SHOWING A PRETTY GOOD BAND OF PRECIP DEVELOPING OVER WRN PUEBLO COUNTY AROUND 09Z. HAVE ALREADY INCREASED POPS OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR FOR THIS EVE...BUT IF TRENDS CONTINUE MAY HAVE TO INCREASE POPS SOME MORE FOR THIS AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE REGARDLESS...STILL LOOKING AT AROUND 1-3 INCHES FOR THE ERN MTS AND GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH FOR THE PLAINS. THE LATEST HRRR INDICATING MORE LIKE 2-3 INCHES...BUT FOR NOW WILL STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT... SO DESPITE CONTINUED COLD AIR ALOFT...SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THEY WERE FOR LAST NIGHT. TOMORROW...WILL SEE CLEARING FROM NW TO SE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ONWARD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY MID DAY. CONTINUED COLD AIR ALOFT AND NRLY FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL HOLD DAYTIME HIGHS ON THE COLD SIDE OF AVERAGE. WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW BELOW GUIDANCE AS MOS VALUES LOOK A BIT TOO WARM FOR KPUB AND ESPECIALLY KCOS...WHERE RESIDUAL SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD DOWN THE HIGHS. SHOULD SEE MAINLY 30S TOMORROW ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS...AND 20S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE WEST...AND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS IT SHOULD BE A PLEASANT END TO THE WEEK DESPITE THE COOLER THAN .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 212 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016 FRI NIGHT...GENERALLY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WL BE OVR THE FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY STILL BE BELOW AVERAGE. ON SATURDAY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE STATE BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEATHER WL STILL BE DRY. TEMPS ALOFT WL WARM ON SAT AND MOST LOCATIONS WL SEE WARMER HIGH TEMPS. MUCH OF THE SERN PLAINS SHOULD SEE HIGHS THAT ARE NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE...ALTHOUGH AREAS WITH LINGER SNOW COVER MAY BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE. THE HIGH VALLEYS WL ALSO LIKELY BE A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE. SAT NIGHT AN UPR TROF WL BE MOVING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS STATES...SENDING A FRONT INTO SERN CO. AT THIS TIME...THE FORECAST MODELS KEEP THE WEATHER DRY ACRS THE FORECAST AREA SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...TEMPS OVR THE SERN PLAINS ON SUN SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER. AS THE UPR TROF OVR THE PLAINS STATES MOVES EASTWARD...AN UPR RIDGE WL BE BUILDING OVR THE GREAT BASIN AND MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES BY MONDAY...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THAT AREA THRU THE COMING WEEK. THIS WL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER ACRS THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH WARMER...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1034 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016 RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND RADAR INDICATE THAT SNOW...SOME ACCUMULATING...IS ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY...WITH LOCALIZED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO THREE INCHES POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. SNOW WILL TEND TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...ALLOWING MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES...PRIMARILY AT KCOS AND KPUB TONIGHT...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM LATER FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM SOUTHERN COLORADO. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
352 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW PRESSURE TO TRAVEL ALONG AFTER SUNRISE. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL DELIVER A MIX OF RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/... 400 AM UPDATE... *** WESTWARD TREND IN THE SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED FOR WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES TO BE EXPANDED *** BUSY NIGHT AS WE CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE LATEST DATA AND TRENDS FOR THIS UPCOMING WINTER SYSTEM. PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENS. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO BE CLOSE TO AN INCH. BIGGEST TREND BETWEEN THE 12Z AND 00Z RUNS IS THAT THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD TREND. HEAVY PRECIP SWATH OVER NJ AND EASTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND IMPACT WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. BECAUSE OF THIS UPSTREAM TREND...HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE PIONEER VALLEY. ANY PRECIP THAT IS OR WILL FALL WILL BE SNOW ACROSS THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERKS AS MESONET SITES ARE ALREADY REPORTING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP GUIDANCE. ASIDE FROM THE EXPANSION...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF EITHER SNOW...OR A WINTRY MIX ACROSS CENTRAL MASS AND INTO CT. THIS IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE LATEST DUAL-POL DATA. HIGHER REFLECTIVITY ECHOES ARE STARTING TO MOVE INTO WINDHAM COUNTY...WHICH WILL BE EITHER A MIX OR JUST SNOW AS 925 MB TEMPS ARE ALREADY BELOW 32F PER SPC MESO DATA. ANTICIPATE THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO BE FAIRLY BUSY WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND SURFACE LOW NEARS. P-TYPE AND CHANGE OVER TIMING... MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS COASTAL LOW MOVES ALONG STALLED COLD FRONT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE PRECIP SHIED HAS EXPANDED FARTHER WESTWARD THEN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...WHICH IS THE LATEST TREND IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 06Z NAM. CHANGE OVER HAS ALREADY STARTED TO OCCUR ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE FALLING. ANTICIPATE THE CHANGE OVER TO MAKE IT TO SOUTHEASTERN MASS INCLUDING BOS AND PVD CLOSER TO THE 6-8 AM HOUR. THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER AS CAA WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO REACH THEM. FEEL IT WILL BE CLOSER TO 10AM-NOON. ALTHOUGH SLEET MAY MIX IN DURING THE TRANSITION...BELIEVE MANY LOCATIONS WILL SWITCH FROM RAIN TO STRAIGHT SNOW. QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS... HAVE ADJUSTED THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. GENERALLY BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING WILL GET AT LEAST A SLOPPY 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HILLS WITHIN TOLLAND...WINDHAM...WORCESTER AND PROVIDENCE COUNTIES. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR QPF. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES. BELIEVE WE HAVE A GOOD TREND GOING AT THIS TIME. SOME AREAS IN QUESTION WHICH COULD BE UPGRADED WITHIN THE WARNING IS SOUTHERN BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES. HOWEVER THESE LOCATIONS MAY BE STUCK IN THE MIX LONGER KEEPING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOW. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERK TO AN ADV AS SNOW IS ALREADY STARTING TO FALL PER WEBCAMS. THE PIONEER AND CONNECTICUT VALLEY MAY SEE LOWER AMOUNTS AS WELL THANKS TO SHADOWING. SO EVEN THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS ARE OUT...THERE STILL COULD BE SOME CHANGES THANKS TO SOME MESOSCALE ISSUES. IMPACTS... DUE TO THE FACT THAT SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOW WITH THIS STORM...AND BANDING WITH 1+ INCH/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. THIS WILL BE EXACERBATED BY A LLJ AROUND 40 KT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME OF IT/S MOMENTUM. THEREFORE...THE COMBINATION OF WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND HEAVY WET SNOW MAY INCREASE THE RISK. THE OTHER PRIMARY IMPACT IS THAT THE CHANGE-OVER AND HEAVIEST PRECIP/SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF THE AM COMMUTE...WITH LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND SLIPPERY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. && .SHORT TERM /2 PM THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/... THE MORE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IN RELATION TO PREVIOUS PROGS SUGGEST A SLOWER END. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE DRYING THE LOW LEVELS...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW LEFTOVER MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MA BEFORE THINGS END BY EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY DROP OFF DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY CAUSE ANY UNTREATED ROADS TO BE SLIPPERY FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE. && .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... BIG PICTURE... LONGWAVE SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW BUIDLING RIDGE IN THE WEST AND DIGGING TROUGH IN THE EAST...POINTING TO WARM TREND WEST AND COOLING EAST. SMALLER SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW A THREE-RING CIRCUS OF SHORTWAVES EITHER AFFECTING OR WITH POTENTIAL TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH TWO SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHERE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES COULD OCCUR. MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS ALSO AGREE ON TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS...ONE WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY AND A SECOND CLOSE TO SHORE TUESDAY. BUT ALL SHOW DIFFERING SCENARIOS FOR HOW THESE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BEST CONFIDENCE IN HANDLING THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEMS IS WITH THE GEFS /ENSEMBLES/ THE DAILIES... TONIGHT-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA. EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND OVER FRESH SNOW COVER MAY LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT THAN INDICATED BY GUIDENCE. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...WE BUMPED GUIDENCE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES. ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING SOUTHWEST...THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD REACH AROUND 950 MB. TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. SUNDAY...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE NORTHEAST USA. THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO LOSE THE FRONT IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS SUGGEST JUST A FEW CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING BY SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S. THE COLDER AIR ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING MIN TEMPS ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...GENERATES A SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST USA COAST. THIS COASTAL LOW THEN MOVES NORTHEAST AND PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF OUR AREA. NORMALLY THIS PATH WOULD KEEP PCPN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WE COULD DEVELOP SUFFICIENT MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE TO BRING CLOUDS AND PCPN MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...BUT WITH POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW MIX NEAR THE COAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ASHORE FROM THE PACIFIC TONIGHT AND CROSSES TO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DIGS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND LEADS TO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW THEN MOVES UP THE COAST TUESDAY AND PASSES OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. EACH MODEL HANDLES THIS COASTAL LOW DIFFERENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS LOW. CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES FEET-DRY ON THE PACIFIC COAST. BEST DYNAMICS UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET MOVES OFF TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...SO BEST CHANCE OF PCPN SHOULD BE ON TUESDAY THEN DIMINISH TO SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. PTYPE AGAIN FAVORS SNOW INLAND AND SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE COAST. UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL FROM THE MIDWEST LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THROUGH THURSDAY MAINTAINING SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... THROUGH 18Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THE RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND NORTHWEST...COVERING MOST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND BY ABOUT 10-12Z. THIS WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS/VSBYS. THEN...AFTER 09Z ESPECIALLY THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NW- SE UNTIL IT/S ALL SNOW AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS BY ABOUT 16Z. SOME ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY SFCS. HOWEVER RUNWAYS MAY RECEIVE A PLOWABLE AMOUNT OF SNOW. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS. AFTER 18Z TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SNOWS/RAIN COME TO AN END AND VERY QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF PRECIP AND CHANGE TO SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING. KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP TIMING. OUTLOOK /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TODAY... NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND 35-45 KT ON THE EASTERN WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SEAS BECOME HIGH...MAINLY 8-10 FT ON THE SE OCEAN WATERS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN/FOG ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO SNOW NEAR THE EASTERN SHORELINES. OUTLOOK /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE... TONIGHT...DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS EARLY AND POPPING UNDER 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS AS HIGH AS 14 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT TO 5-7 FEET BY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST WATERS DURING THE NIGHT. SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY BELOW 25 KNOTS BUT GUSTING NEAR 25 KNOTS EAST OF CAPE ANN SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS DIMINISH SATURDAY BUT THEN RETURN TO NEAR 5 FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MONDAY-TUESDAY...NORTH WINDS TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST NEAR 30 KNOTS EACH DAY. DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL BEHAVIOR OF THE TWO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS PASSING BY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO REACH 35-40 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR GALES AT THIS TIME...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. WINDS TURN BACK TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ003- 004. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ002. MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ019>022. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ004>007-012>018-026. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ002-003-008>011. RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ007. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ001>006. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-254>256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236-251. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN NEAR TERM...DUNTEN SHORT TERM...DUNTEN LONG TERM...WTB AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1136 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG AN OFFSHORE FRONT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A STRONG OCEAN STORM SHOULD TRACK WELL OFFSHORE LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THEN ANOTHER STORM LOOKS TO REDEVELOP OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... 1115 PM UPDATE...MADE SOME EDITS TO THE HOURLY POP AND WX GRIDS TO HOPEFULLY BETTER ACCOUNT FOR THE TIMING OF THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE, THE TREND WAS TO DELAY THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF RAIN-SNOW LINE BY 1-3 HOURS DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION AS THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO OVERCOME INITIALLY. DESPITE THIS DELAY IN THE CHANGEOVER, SNOW AMOUNTS WERE NOT LOWERED AS STRONG DYNAMICAL COOLING AND HEAVIER PRECIP RATES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO YIELD SNOWFALL RATES OF AROUND AN INCH AN HOUR DURING RUSH HOUR (ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN NJ) UNDER A MESOSCALE BAND FORMING TO THE NW OF THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW. THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL BETWEEN 4-9 AM FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND BETWEEN 5 AND 10 AM FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE NJ AND DE COAST. THIS COINCIDES WITH RUSH HOUR, SO PLEASE GIVE YOURSELF CONSIDERABLY EXTRA TIME TO GET TO YOUR DESTINATION IN THE MORNING AND EVEN CONSIDER DELAYING YOUR TRAVEL (IF POSSIBLE) IF THE ROADS BECOME SNOW COVERED DURING RUSH HOUR. ARGUABLY THERE IS A SLIGHT BOOST OF CONFIDENCE THAT SNOWFALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH THE SIMULATED SNOWFALL FROM THE LATEST 00Z HRRRX USING A VARIABLE DENSITY JUST ABOUT MATCHES OURS. THIS FORECAST PARAMETER FROM THE HRRRX PERFORMED EXTREMELY WELL WITH THE BLIZZARD TWO WEEKS AGO THOUGH THE SETUPS FOR THESE TWO EVENTS ARE VASTLY DIFFERENT. NOTE THE PARAMETER FROM THE HRRR/HRRRX OR ANY OTHER MODELS THAT ASSUMES A 10:1 SNOW RATIO FOR THIS EVENT WILL BE OVERDONE AS IT DOESN`T TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THERMAL PROFILES THAT ALTER THE MICROPHYSICS, MIXING AND SURFACE MELTING (WHICH ALL ARE IMPORTANT FACTORS IN THIS EVENT). PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO INTENSIFY ALONG THE NOW STATIONARY FRONT AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE EVENING UPDATE. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE TRENDED SNOWIER WITH THE LATEST RUNS. HOWEVER, I HESITATE TO CHANGE THE SNOW AMOUNTS AS MANY LOCATIONS STILL HAVE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE 32 DEGREES, MEANING WE`RE STILL SEVERAL HOURS AWAY FROM THE CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW. THUS FOR NOW, WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SNOW AMOUNTS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONFIGURATION FROM THE 4 PM UPDATE, BUT WILL BE WATCHING THE TIMING OF THE CHANGE OVER VERY CLOSELY. TIMING...RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE DELAWARE VALLEY. EXPECT THAT IT SHOULD MOVE WEST THROUGH THE OVER NIGHT HOURS REACHING THE LEHIGH VALLEY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE TIMING OF THE SNOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL IMPACT PART, IF NOT ALL, OF THE MORNING COMMUTE AND THAT IS WHY WE HAVE INCLUDED AREAS TO THE WEST OF PHILADELPHIA. IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A SLOPPY AND SLIPPERY MORNING COMMUTE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SNOW/RAIN...SNOW SEEMS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH WITH TEMPERATURES STILL HANGING OUT IN THE 40S LATE THIS EVENING, PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE AS ALL RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT, AND THEN TRANSITION OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW DURING THE VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS (AT THIS POINT EXPECT THE TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW TO BE BETWEEN 2 AND 6 AM DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DEW POINTS FALL). AS THE PRECIPITATION FALLS, IT WILL START TO COOL THE COLUMN. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE JUST HOW FAST THAT COLUMN COOLS. PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WILL DEFINITELY PLAY A ROLE AND AS WE SEE SOME HEAVIER PRECIPITATION FALL, THE COLUMN WILL COOL FASTER AND WE SHOULD SEE A QUICK CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THE BEST VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS TO OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD AND THIS WOULD LEND TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF AN ACCUMULATING SNOW. WHILE THE GROUND TEMPS MAY BE FAIRLY WARM RIGHT NOW, INCREASED PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WILL ALLOW FOR ALL SURFACES TO ACCUMULATE, EVEN PAVED ROADS. AMOUNTS WILL VARY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AS YOU MOVE FURTHER INLAND AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS MORE TOWARDS THE COAST. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HINTS AT HIGHER TOTALS (THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST) IN EASTERN NEW JERSEY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE A WARNING BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS FURTHER. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... SNOW WILL GRADUALLY BE ENDING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW PRESSURE PULLS FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SNOW ENDING BY 10AM WITH SOME OF THE COASTAL LOCATIONS POSSIBLY SEEING SOME FLAKES THROUGH AROUND NOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND WE EXPECT THE AREA TO DRY OUT AND REMAIN THAT WAY AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... SUMMARY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH AN OCEAN STORM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHICH SHOULD SLIDE WELL OFFSHORE, THEN QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE TO REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP INVOLVES A TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THAT CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST. A MORE COMPLEX PATTERN THEN EVOLVES WITH A CLOSED LOW IN CANADA WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN STATES SATURDAY. THE LATTER SHOULD ALLOW A STORM TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHICH THEN DEEPENS RAPIDLY, HOWEVER THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE SUCH TO KEEP IT OFFSHORE AS IT TURNS NORTHEASTWARD. AN IMPRESSIVE TROUGH THEN IN THE PLAINS MOVES EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SORT OF REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE ONE TO WATCH GIVEN SUCH A DEEP INCOMING TROUGH THAT COULD CLOSE OFF INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. HOWEVER, THE INTERACTION WITH THE INITIAL OCEAN STORM COULD VERY WELL INFLUENCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SECOND STORM. WE USED A MODEL BLEND WITH CONTINUITY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THEN BLENDED IN MOSTLY THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BACKS MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT BEGINS TO SLIDE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA, WHICH WILL RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE SHOULD BE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING COMBINED WITH LOW DEW POINTS, THEREFORE A COLD NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED. FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY SATURDAY BEFORE WEAKENING INTO SUNDAY. OUR REGION LOOKS TO END UP BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING THE WEEKEND AS A MAIN TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND ANOTHER ONE CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE LATTER SHOULD DRIVE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST DURING SUNDAY WHICH THEN SHOULD GO OUT TO SEA AS IT RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES, ALTHOUGH IT MAY TOSS AT LEAST SOME CLOUDINESS OUR WAY. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM SHOULD SEND A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY, HOWEVER THIS FEATURE LOOKS WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED. AS A RESULT, WE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY ATTM. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION AS A ROBUST TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE EAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN LOW PRESSURE INTO THE GREAT LAKES, HOWEVER THEN HANDING OFF ENERGY EASTWARD THAT REDEVELOPS LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE REDEVELOPMENT/TRACK OF THIS STORM MAY DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE PREVIOUS ONE WHICH IS MORE OFFSHORE. IN ADDITION, THERE COULD BE A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA TUESDAY WHERE LIFT IS ENHANCED, HOWEVER THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPMENT. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A DECENT COASTAL STORM WITH COLD AIR COMING INTO PLAY. WHILE THERE IS A SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE REGARDING A STORM, THE TRACK AND INTENSITY IS LESS CERTAIN AND THAT WILL DETERMINE THE ACTUAL DETAILS /IF ANY/ FOR OUR AREA WHICH INCLUDES RAIN, SNOW, WIND AND COASTAL IMPACTS. GIVEN THE VARIABILITY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS TIME FRAME. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE EAST, BASICALLY MOVING OVER OUR AREA. THIS WOULD TAKE ANY COASTAL STORM OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS. AN ARCTIC FRONT OF SORTS MAY SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA DURING WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS AND COLDER AIR WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO ARRIVE DURING THURSDAY FROM THE WEST. && .AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL CONTINUE AT THE DELAWARE VALLEY SITES (KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, AND KILG) AND THE COASTAL PLAIN SITES (KMIV AND KACY) THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE INTO KRDG AND KABE AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIMING OF THE CHANGE OVER TO A RAIN AND SNOW MIX AND EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW IS UNCERTAIN, BUT AT THIS POINT, EXPECT TO SEE THE MIX BEGIN BETWEEN 04 AND 06Z, AND THE CHANGE TO ALL SNOW HAPPEN BETWEEN 06 AND 10Z. GIVEN HOW LATE THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AT KRDG AND KABE, IT MAY BEGIN AND STAY ALL SNOW. GENERALLY EXPECTING THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO BE COINCIDENT WITH THE PERIOD OF ALL SNOW. FRIDAY...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 15Z ACROSS THE TERMINALS, EXCEPT FOR KACY AND KMIV WHICH MAY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH 18Z. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END EARLY WITH SNOW MOVING TO THE EAST THROUGH MID-MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS UP NEAR 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS POSSIBLE, WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATER SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, BECOMING NORTHERLY SUNDAY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER AS LOW PRESSURE REDEVELOPS OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW TO THE AREA WHICH WOULD REDUCE THE VISIBILITY. THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE THOUGH WITH THIS STORM AS ITS EFFECTS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE TRACK AND INTENSITY. && .MARINE... A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DELAWARE BAY. GALE GUSTS ARE LIKELY OVER THE OCEAN WATERS FROM THE PRE DAWN HOURS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DELAWARE BAY. A FEW GUSTS NEAR GALE FORCE MAY BE POSSIBLE AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, THOUGH SCA CONDITIONS ON THE COASTAL WATERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TIME HOURS. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO LOWER BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS IN PLACE. HOWEVER, A POTENTIALLY STRONG OCEAN STORM TO OUR SOUTHEAST LATER SUNDAY COULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD AND WINDS TO INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN OFFSHORE STORM TRACKS WELL EAST OF OUR WATERS INTO MONDAY, WHICH COULD ENHANCE SEAS AND WIND GUSTS. ANOTHER COASTAL STORM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY COULD RESULT IN GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTS, HOWEVER THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM WHICH CURRENTLY HAS LOWER CONFIDENCE. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ070-071- 101>106. NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NJZ008>010- 012-015>019. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NJZ013-014- 020>027. DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR DEZ001. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR DEZ002>004. MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ008-012. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ015-019- 020. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GORSE NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/MEOLA/KLEIN SHORT TERM...MEOLA LONG TERM...GORSE AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON/MEOLA MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
347 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS HIGH IS CLEARING THE SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING... ALSO BRINGING AN END TO SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST. CLEAR SKIES SPREADING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...WILL SUPPORT AN EXTRA DROP OFF IN TEMPS FOR THE VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN. AS IT STANDS NOW...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 20S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION TO THE UPPER 20S ON THE RIDGES AND LOCATIONS STILL UNDER THE CLOUDS ALONG AND NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND 20 DEGREES ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...CURRENTLY. THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL TAKE ANOTHER BOTTOMING OUT SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. THIS LEAVES EAST KENTUCKY IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING TODAY AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT... MAINLY SOUTHERN STREAM...TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WAVE BECOMES MORE ISOLATED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS IT DIVES TO THE GULF COAST AND STARTS TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS SHOW LIMITED SEPARATION FROM EACH OTHER AT THIS TIME STEP WITH THE GFS THE WEAKEST AND CANADIAN A CLOSE MATCH TO THE ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WITH ONLY A WEAK STREAM OF ENERGY SET TO DRIFT OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND WAS USED FOR THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST... WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR NEAR TERM DETAILS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER THE CONTROL...A TERM USED LOOSELY...OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. IN FACT...GIVEN SOME LIMITED ENERGY ALOFT AND THE WAVE PASSING TO THE SOUTH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FOR THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THOUGH HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR NOW. WHAT WE WILL HAVE IS MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH READINGS REACHING THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR TODAY...GOOD SUNSHINE...AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...WILL ERASE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S MOST PLACES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND FOR T/TD/WIND GRIDS TODAY BEFORE FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH SATURDAY. DID ADJUST THE MIN TEMPS A TAD THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT FOR MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW...SINGLE DIGITS...IN LINE WITH MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH THEY MAY BE A HAIR TOO LOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 347 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD START OFF QUIETLY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO END THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY TOPPING AROUND 50 ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE STEADILY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY EVENING...AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BARRELS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE FIRST PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MIX WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. THE PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW COLD AIR TO SPILL QUICKLY INTO THE REGION. THIS CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES CAUSE THE RAIN TO TRANSITION QUICKLY TO A RAIN SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW BY LATE MONDAY EVENING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND FREEZING. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PERIODS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN RAIN MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER. THE LAST BIT OF SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKYEARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO DRY AND COLD. THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGHS ON THAT DAY ARE ONLY FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS ON THAT DAY FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE COLDEST NIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE MERCURY WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS BOTH NIGHTS. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE LOWS IN THE 20S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 100 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 A DECK OF 4-5KFT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HOLD ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE FROM THESE NEAR THE VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS. THIS ALL CLEARS OFF BY DAWN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVALENT THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY DAWN...CONTINUING THAT WAY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...KAS/GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
300 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS HIGH IS CLEARING THE SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING... ALSO BRINGING AN END TO SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST. CLEAR SKIES SPREADING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...WILL SUPPORT AN EXTRA DROP OFF IN TEMPS FOR THE VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN. AS IT STANDS NOW...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 20S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION TO THE UPPER 20S ON THE RIDGES AND LOCATIONS STILL UNDER THE CLOUDS ALONG AND NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND 20 DEGREES ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...CURRENTLY. THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL TAKE ANOTHER BOTTOMING OUT SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. THIS LEAVES EAST KENTUCKY IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING TODAY AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT... MAINLY SOUTHERN STREAM...TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WAVE BECOMES MORE ISOLATED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS IT DIVES TO THE GULF COAST AND STARTS TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS SHOW LIMITED SEPARATION FROM EACH OTHER AT THIS TIME STEP WITH THE GFS THE WEAKEST AND CANADIAN A CLOSE MATCH TO THE ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WITH ONLY A WEAK STREAM OF ENERGY SET TO DRIFT OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND WAS USED FOR THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST... WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR NEAR TERM DETAILS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER THE CONTROL...A TERM USED LOOSELY...OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. IN FACT...GIVEN SOME LIMITED ENERGY ALOFT AND THE WAVE PASSING TO THE SOUTH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FOR THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THOUGH HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR NOW. WHAT WE WILL HAVE IS MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH READINGS REACHING THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR TODAY...GOOD SUNSHINE...AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...WILL ERASE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S MOST PLACES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND FOR T/TD/WIND GRIDS TODAY BEFORE FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH SATURDAY. DID ADJUST THE MIN TEMPS A TAD THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT FOR MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW...SINGLE DIGITS...IN LINE WITH MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH THEY MAY BE A HAIR TOO LOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF TRANSITION...WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES GIVING WAY TO READINGS MUCH BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS BY WHILE CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...BUT TRIGGERING STRONG SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE. OUR IMPACT WILL COME FROM A TROUGH DESCENDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND BECOMING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A DEEP MOIST LAYER UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND PERSISTENT UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP AT TIMES. THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN EARLY ON AS THE AIR MASS TRANSITIONS...BUT FROM LATE MONDAY ON...IT SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. MOST AREAS WILL PROBABLY SEE ACCUMULATION AT SOME POINT...BUT IT IS LIKELY TO BE OF THE NUISANCE VARIETY. THE BEST CHANCE AT MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. DIFFERENCES IN MODELS START TO SHOW UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE UPPER TROUGH MORE STRONGLY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...AND THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF. NOT LEANING TO THE COLDER NEW ECMWF SCENARIO AT THIS POINT...BEING THAT IT DOES NOT HAVE MUCH OTHER SUPPORT. HAVE ONLY GIVEN IT LIGHT WEIGHTING IN THE NEW FORECAST. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 100 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 A DECK OF 4-5KFT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HOLD ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE FROM THESE NEAR THE VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS. THIS ALL CLEARS OFF BY DAWN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVALENT THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY DAWN...CONTINUING THAT WAY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...KAS/GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1111 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 331 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016 OVERVIEW...THERE ARE A FEW FORECAST CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOG IS NOT LIKELY...BUT CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...A VERY LIGHT SNOW EVENT IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING PRIMARILY BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON AND FOCUSED ON NEBRASKA ZONES. HOWEVER...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LOW IF WE EVEN GET ANYTHING...GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH IN MOST PLACES. FOG POTENTIAL...THERE HAS BEEN A LOW STRATUS DECK THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN IOWA. THE HRRR HAS BEEN FORECASTING FOG FORMATION THIS EVENING OVER THE THICK SNOW COVER AND NEAR THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS DECK ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. THE SREF FOG POTENTIAL IS ALSO OVER 50 PERCENT IN SOME OF THIS AREA. IN ADDITION...THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUPPORTING FOG. HOWEVER...THE HRRR HAS BEEN BACKING OFF OF THE FOG ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST AND HAS BEEN PULLING THE FOG FURTHER BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA AND CLOSER TO THE STRATUS DECK...WHICH MAKES SENSE. THE SREF MAY BE OVERDOING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GIVEN HOW SNOW COVER IS HANDLED IN THE MODELS. IN ADDITION...MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ALSO LIMITING FOG POTENTIAL. THEREFORE...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE FOG IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT IN TIME. IF WE DO SEE FOG...IT WILL LIKELY BE NORTHEAST OF THE TRI-CITIES. SNOW POTENTIAL...A WEAK FAST MOVING OPEN SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. MOST FORECAST MODELS GENERATE A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF MOISTURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE THAT WOULD AMOUNT TO TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW OR LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS PRETTY CLEARLY SHOW THAT THE TEMPERATURE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH ACROSS OUR CWA THAT THE ONLY PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW. HOWEVER...OVERALL LIFT IS WEAK AS NOTED BY FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC SURFACES. THE ONLY THING REALLY GOING FOR THIS WEAK LITTLE SYSTEM IS A FAIRLY DEEP SATURATED ZONE WITHIN THE DENDRITIC LAYER THAT COULD LEAD TO A LITTLE LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW. GIVEN THE LACK OF LIFT WILL JUST CALL FOR LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW AND MOST AREAS MAY SEE A TRACE OR LESS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK AND THUS NOT MUCH WIND IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 331 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016 ALOFT: NW FLOW WAS DEVELOPING AND WILL DOMINATE THESE PERIODS. EXCITATION OF THE LONGWAVES UPSTREAM WILL RESULT IN TEMPORARY AMPLIFICATION OVER N AMERICA...WITH A +2.5 STANDARD DEVIATION RIDGE OVER THE W AND A -2.5 SD TROF OVER THE ERN USA. THE WAVELENGTH WILL BROADEN AND THE MAGNITUDE WILL DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT MID-NEXT WEEK... WITH SIGNIFICANT DEAMPLIFICATION PROBABLE LATE NEXT WEEK. SURFACE: A POTENT CLIPPER WILL BE RACING SE ACROSS THE CAN PRAIRIES SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED POLAR COLD FRONT WILL SURGE S AND CROSS THE FCST AREA SAT NIGHT. IT THEN LOOKS LIKE THE ARCTIC FRONT SLIDES THRU MON. HIGH PRES ARRIVES TUE AND THEN IT WRN EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO EDGE E INTO WED...WITH A WARM FRONT SHARPENING AND APPROACHING. NW FLOW IS A DRY PATTERN. SO ANY PRECIP THREATS WILL BE LIGHT/MINOR.THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC COLD WILL SURGE INTO THE ERN USA...MISSING US JUST TO THE E. BUT THE WRN FRINGE OF THESE AIR MASSES WILL KEEP TEMPS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW NORMAL. THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A CLIPPER SAT. THAT COULD BE A DAY OF TEMPORARY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. A FEW DAILY DETAILS... FRI NIGHT: DECREASING CLOUDS. SAT: TEMPS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE COMPLICATION OF SNOW COVER. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S...EVEN WITH THE SNOW COVER. IT`S LOOKING VERY WARM IN THE LOW-LVLS...BUT NOT SURE HOW DEEPLY THE BL MIXES INTO THIS TO BRING IT DOWN. SUN: COLD SECTOR. WINDY IN CAA...BUT ACTUAL AIR TEMPS NOT THAT COLD. COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES N OF I-80 SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. JET FORCING IS STRONG ALOFT...BUT MOISTURE IS LACKING. MON: TEMPS DROP BACK TO NORMAL...POSSIBLY BELOW. WE MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH WITH THE WARP-AROUND CLOUD COVER ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE THERMAL TROF. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND E...BUT IT`S NOT IN THE FCST YET. TUE-WED: QUIET AND DRY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016 CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. EXPECT THE LIGHT SNOW AND LOWER CEILINGS TO MOVE INTO KGRI AND KEAR ESPECIALLY TOWARDS MORNING. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY COULD DROP INTO MVFR...BUT DO NOT EXPECT IFR OR LOWER CRITERIA DURING THE SNOW. HAVE KEPT THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER DETAILS ARE KNOWN. CEILINGS WILL LIFT THROUGH THE DAY AND SKIES WILL CLEAR TOWARDS THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...WESELY LONG TERM...HALBLAUB AVIATION...BILLINGS WRIGHT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
433 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP AND JUST OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ITS WAKE AND BRINGS FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL START THE NEW WORKWEEK AS A COMPLEX AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LIGHT PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF SNOW HAS BROKEN OUT AT COATSVILLE...JUST EAST OF THE LANCASTER BORDER. HRRR AND RAP BOTH AGREE IN BRINGING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A BIT OF SLEET OR RAIN...OVER THE FAR SERN PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH SUNRISE...BASICALLY BEING OVER BY MID MORNING. QPF ON THE ORDER OF A TRACE TO UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH REMAINS THE CONSENSUS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO ACCUMULATIONS IF THERE ARE ANY WILL PROBABLY BE CONFINED TO GRASSY SURFACES. FURTHER WEST A SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS HELPING TRIGGER SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THAT ARE GAINING A LITTLE PUSH FROM SOME OROGRAPHIC FORCING. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME LINGERING FLURRIES OVER THE USUAL HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NW...AS THE UPPER HEIGHTS REBOUND RAPIDLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL BREAK OVER OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF INTO THE 20S REGION-WIDE TONIGHT...WHICH FOR EARLY FEBRUARY WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... SATURDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH THE MOST CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AREAS...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES. HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...RISING INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN IS MADE TO EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW FORECAST TO DROP STEEPLY SE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS TIME THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF DO NOT GENERATE ANY KIND OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW/HEAVY PRECIP THREAT...BUT THE ENSEMBLE PLUMES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH ANYWHERE FROM AN INCH OR TWO TO A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW. ECENS SHOWS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...FAVORING THE HIGHER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. THE MAIN THING IS THERE IS NO INDICATION OF A SINGLE ROBUST SURFACE LOW THAT WOULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT STORMINESS...YET. THE SEEMINGLY MOST CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING OVER THE EASTERN US...DRIVING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION...AND A CHUNK OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR DOWN INTO THE GULF STATES. THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE NORMAL LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO LATE WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT KEEP US ON THE CHILLY AND UNSETTLED SIDE. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 09Z TAFS SENT. NOT MANY CHANGES. SOME SNOW TO THE SE. WILL BE WATCHING THE RADAR CLOSELY...CONCERN TO HOW FAR WEST RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD MOVE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ON THE COLD FRONT AND TRACKS NE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN ACROSS CENTRAL PA THRU 06Z WILL BE MVFR STRATOCU DECK/SCT FLURRIES AT KBFD/KJST ASSOC WITH WEAK OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVR THE MTNS. FOCUS LATE TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TOWARD SE PA...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRES LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST. ALL THE LATEST MDL DATA SUGGESTS KLNS WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOW /IFR/ VSBYS AT KLNS BTWN 08Z-12Z FRIDAY. LATEST HRRR OUTPUT AS OF 03Z SUGGESTS THE SIG VIS REDUCTIONS MAY REMAIN JUST EAST OF KLNS...BUT TOO CLOSE TO CALL ATTM. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST MVFR CONDS AT KBFD AND KJST FRIDAY MORNING WITH OCNL -SHSN. LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR PRODUCTS SUGGEST OCNL IFR CONDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT KBFD/KJST EARLY FRIDAY AM...AS BLYR MOISTURE/-SHSN INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE W. ANY SNOW AT KLNS SHOULD END BY ARND 11Z. FOCUS WILL THEN BE ON LINGERING STRATOCU ACROSS THE W MTNS. MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EVEN KBFD/KJST WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDS BY AFTN...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. OUTLOOK... SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. MON-TUE...SNOW/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY W MTNS. && .HYDROLOGY... ICE EFFECTS AT MARIETTA WILL CONTINUE FOR QUITE A WHILE. BUT FLOWS ARE NOT VERY HIGH. THE LOCAL STREAMS WILL START TO COME DOWN SOME...BUT SHOW DAILY AFTN BUMPS UP AS RESIDUAL SNOW MELTS WITH AFTN TEMPS IN THE 40S EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHERE PATCHY SNOW LINGERS IN THE SE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION...AS MORE RAIN AND SNOW NOT THAT FAR AWAY. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LA CORTE AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN HYDROLOGY...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
312 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP AND JUST OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ITS WAKE AND BRINGS FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL START THE NEW WORKWEEK AS A COMPLEX AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LIGHT PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF SNOW HAS BROKEN OUT AT COATSVILLE...JUST EAST OF THE LANCASTER BORDER. HRRR AND RAP BOTH AGREE IN BRINGING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A BIT OF SLEET OR RAIN...OVER THE FAR SERN PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH SUNRISE...BASICALLY BEING OVER BY MID MORNING. QPF ON THE ORDER OF A TRACE TO UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH REMAINS THE CONSENSUS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO ACCUMULATIONS IF THERE ARE ANY WILL PROBABLY BE CONFINED TO GRASSY SURFACES. FURTHER WEST A SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS HELPING TRIGGER SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THAT ARE GAINING A LITTLE PUSH FROM SOME OROGRAPHIC FORCING. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME LINGERING FLURRIES OVER THE USUAL HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NW...AS THE UPPER HEIGHTS REBOUND RAPIDLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL BREAK OVER OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF INTO THE 20S REGION-WIDE TONIGHT...WHICH FOR EARLY FEBRUARY WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... SATURDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH THE MOST CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AREAS...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES. HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...RISING INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN IS MADE TO EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW FORECAST TO DROP STEEPLY SE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS TIME THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF DO NOT GENERATE ANY KIND OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW/HEAVY PRECIP THREAT...BUT THE ENSEMBLE PLUMES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH ANYWHERE FROM AN INCH OR TWO TO A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW. ECENS SHOWS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...FAVORING THE HIGHER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. THE MAIN THING IS THERE IS NO INDICATION OF A SINGLE ROBUST SURFACE LOW THAT WOULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT STORMINESS...YET. THE SEEMINGLY MOST CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING OVER THE EASTERN US...DRIVING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION...AND A CHUNK OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR DOWN INTO THE GULF STATES. THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE NORMAL LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO LATE WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT KEEP US ON THE CHILLY AND UNSETTLED SIDE. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 06Z TAFS SENT. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADD A LINE AFTER SUNSET...AS WINDS DIE DOWN. WILL BE WATCHING THE RADAR CLOSELY...CONCERN TO HOW FAR WEST RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD MOVE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ON THE COLD FRONT AND TRACKS NE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN ACROSS CENTRAL PA THRU 06Z WILL BE MVFR STRATOCU DECK/SCT FLURRIES AT KBFD/KJST ASSOC WITH WEAK OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVR THE MTNS. FOCUS LATE TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TOWARD SE PA...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRES LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST. ALL THE LATEST MDL DATA SUGGESTS KLNS WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOW /IFR/ VSBYS AT KLNS BTWN 08Z-12Z FRIDAY. LATEST HRRR OUTPUT AS OF 03Z SUGGESTS THE SIG VIS REDUCTIONS MAY REMAIN JUST EAST OF KLNS...BUT TOO CLOSE TO CALL ATTM. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST MVFR CONDS AT KBFD AND KJST FRIDAY MORNING WITH OCNL -SHSN. LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR PRODUCTS SUGGEST OCNL IFR CONDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT KBFD/KJST EARLY FRIDAY AM...AS BLYR MOISTURE/-SHSN INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE W. ANY SNOW AT KLNS SHOULD END BY ARND 11Z. FOCUS WILL THEN BE ON LINGERING STRATOCU ACROSS THE W MTNS. MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EVEN KBFD/KJST WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDS BY AFTN...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. OUTLOOK... SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. MON-TUE...SNOW/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY W MTNS. && .HYDROLOGY... ICE EFFECTS AT MARIETTA WILL CONTINUE FOR QUITE A WHILE. BUT FLOWS ARE NOT VERY HIGH. THE LOCAL STREAMS WILL START TO COME DOWN SOME...BUT SHOW DAILY AFTN BUMPS UP AS RESIDUAL SNOW MELTS WITH AFTN TEMPS IN THE 40S EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHERE PATCHY SNOW LINGERS IN THE SE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION...AS MORE RAIN AND SNOW NOT THAT FAR AWAY. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LA CORTE AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1248 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP THE EAST COAST MAY SPREAD A VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW INTO SOUTHEASTERN PA TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOWS COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SNOWBELT WITH DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING BY 06Z OVER SOUTHERN YORK AND LANCASTER...THEN MIXED RAIN AND SNOW CHANGING TO SNOW SNOW SHORTLY AFTERWARDS AND LASTING THROUGH 13Z. STILL EXPECTING A COASTING TO AS MUCH AS 1-2 INCHES OVER EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF LANCASTER COUNTY. WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON SCHEDULE JUST SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NC LATE THIS EVENING WILL TRACK ALONG THE OUTER NC BANKS OVERNIGHT AND OFFSHORE BEFORE HEADING NORTHEAST AND WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL TAKE A BREAK IN THE CENTRAL COS TONIGHT AS THE LLVL FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE LESS CYCLONIC. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF SCT/ISOLD SHSN IN THE NW THO AS THE STRONG VORT MAX NEAR PA FROM THE W. THE FLOW IS STILL OFF THE LAKE AND UPSLOPE INTO THE HIGHER ELEVS OF PA. JUST A DUSTING THERE AS WELL. MINS WILL BE LOWEST IN THE NW WHERE CAA BRINGS 8H TEMPS DOWN TO DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW 0C. THE OFFSHORE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NW AND THE AXIS OF THE JET STREAM PASSES OUR LONGITUDE EVEN BEFORE SUNRISE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... SNOW SHOULD SCOOT EAST OF LANCASTER COUNTY BY OR AFTER 700 AM. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR ON ALL FRONTS WITH THE LOW WELL OFF TO THE NE AND VORT MAX/SHORT WAVE OVERHEAD IN THE MORNING. WILL LINGER MENTION OF --SHSN IN THE ALLEGHENIES FOR THE MORNING. ELSEWHERE...THE NWRLY WIND WILL PICK BACK UP. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT OVER MOST OF THE CWA. TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY NEAR NORMAL FOR MAXES WITH NIL ADVECTION AND 8H TEMPS AROUND -10C. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODERATELY AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOW DOWN THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. PATTERN WILL TRANSITIONS TO A WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH A CORRESPONDING DOWNSTREAM UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. AFTER A QUIET START TO THE PERIOD THIS WEEKEND...THE WEATHER WILL TREND COLDER AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR AND SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN AT THIS POINT APPEARS LOW TO MODERATE. MAIN THREAT WILL BE IN THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME...WITH POSSIBLE COASTAL DEVELOPMENT STILL HINTED AT THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. LATEST TRENDS HOWEVER ARE FOR DEVELOPMENT TO BE FARTHER EAST THAN YESTERDAYS SOLUTIONS. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 06Z TAFS SENT. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADD A LINE AFTER SUNSET...AS WINDS DIE DOWN. WILL BE WATCHING THE RADAR CLOSELY...CONCERN TO HOW FAR WEST RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD MOVE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ON THE COLD FRONT AND TRACKS NE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN ACROSS CENTRAL PA THRU 06Z WILL BE MVFR STRATOCU DECK/SCT FLURRIES AT KBFD/KJST ASSOC WITH WEAK OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVR THE MTNS. FOCUS LATE TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TOWARD SE PA...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRES LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST. ALL THE LATEST MDL DATA SUGGESTS KLNS WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOW /IFR/ VSBYS AT KLNS BTWN 08Z-12Z FRIDAY. LATEST HRRR OUTPUT AS OF 03Z SUGGESTS THE SIG VIS REDUCTIONS MAY REMAIN JUST EAST OF KLNS...BUT TOO CLOSE TO CALL ATTM. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST MVFR CONDS AT KBFD AND KJST FRIDAY MORNING WITH OCNL -SHSN. LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR PRODUCTS SUGGEST OCNL IFR CONDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT KBFD/KJST EARLY FRIDAY AM...AS BLYR MOISTURE/-SHSN INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE W. ANY SNOW AT KLNS SHOULD END BY ARND 11Z. FOCUS WILL THEN BE ON LINGERING STRATOCU ACROSS THE W MTNS. MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EVEN KBFD/KJST WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDS BY AFTN...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. OUTLOOK... SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. MON-TUE...SNOW/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY W MTNS. && .HYDROLOGY... OBVIOUS ICE EFFECTS AT MARIETTA WILL CONTINUE FOR QUITE A WHILE. BUT FLOWS ARE NOT VERY HIGH. THE LOCAL STREAMS WILL START TO COME DOWN SOME...BUT SHOW DAILY AFTN BUMPS UP AS RESIDUAL SNOW MELTS WITH AFTN TEMPS IN THE 40S EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHERE PATCHY SNOW LINGERS IN THE SE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION...AS MORE RAIN AND SNOW NOT THAT FAR AWAY. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN HYDROLOGY...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EUREKA CA
330 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. && .DISCUSSION...DESPITE LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO APPROACH THE NORTH COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THUS TODAY WILL SEE MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONT REACHES THE COAST. RAINFALL SHOULD BEGIN FALLING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTH COAST BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES. (AND EVEN LESS FARTHER INLAND). SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY HIGH BUT AGAIN... GIVEN THE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF QPF ONLY AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE EXPECTED AND LIKELY WELL ABOVE 5000 FT. ON THE HEELS OF THE FRONT IS SOME RAPID RIDGING ALOFT THUS LITTLE TO NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BE STRONG AND MAY LAST THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY AND RELATIVELY WARM WEATHER. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND WEAKLY OFFSHORE SO COASTAL WEATHER SHOULD ALSO SEE A FEW DAYS OF SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S BY NEXT WEEK. TOWARD THURSDAY...THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS INDICATING ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTH COAST...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION RAIN FREE UNTIL FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE DURING THIS PERIOD TO REFLECT THE UNCERTAINTY. && .AVIATION...LOW CEILINGS HAD IMPACTED AIRFIELDS ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF HAZE ALONG THE COAST. THE CEILINGS WILL ERODE BY LATER THIS MORNING MAKING FOR MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD BRING LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. EXPECT CEILINGS TO FALL TO MVFR WITH PERIODIC IFR AT KCEC AND KACV WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TONIGHT. OTHERWISE WE CAN EXPECT IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER VFR DAY IN STORE. KML && .MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES OVER THE REGION. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD SUFFICE WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE MOSTLY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING GENERALLY MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST HELPING TO KEEP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXED. THE WESTERLY SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE SEA STATE SUBSIDING BELOW 10 FT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A NEW SWELL WILL CAUSE THE SEA STATE TO BUILD AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. KML && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ450-455-470-475. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT: HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA/ZONEMAP.PNG
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 320 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A little light rain across the northwest corner of the state this evening...otherwise dry and warm conditions expected through at least the middle of next week. Daytime highs well above normal early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Clear skies over the CWA this morning with an upper level ridge axis now over the west coast. Clear skies and relatively light winds have allowed light fog to form in the valley this morning mainly in the San Joaquin valley. With lack of significant rainfall the last few days...widespread dense fog is not likely today. The tail end of a weak frontal band now approaching the coast is expected to drag across the north state this evening. Although cloud cover will increase today in advance of this system...a warmer airmass will allow for a little warmer temperatures this afternoon compared to Thursday. The front is expected to weaken as it moves inland this evening but may hold together well enough to bring a little light rain across western Shasta and Tehama counties. Upper ridge rebuilds on Saturday bringing return to fair skies with daytime temperatures warming to about 6 to 10 degrees above normal. Even more warming is expected on Sunday and Monday as the upper ridge amplifies over the west coast. Both Sunday and Monday will see daytime highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s in the central valley or from 10 to 15 degrees above normal for early February. At this time...Monday looks to be the warmest day with daytime highs pushing up close to record values especially in the northern San Joaquin valley. && .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday) The axis of the West Coast ridge is forecast to have shifted Ewd and inland from B.C. into the Great Basin during the EFP. The NAEFS and GEFS shift the 30+ year return interval in mid-level heights and primarily in 700-850 mbs temps Ewd and then SEwd away from our CWA and gradually return the intervals to normal through next week. Thus a gradual cooling trend is expected through the EFP with Tue being the warmest day in the EFP period...with some record max temps still possible at SAC and SCK. Max temp anomalies will drop from 10 to 20 degrees above normal in our CWA on Tue to just a few degrees above normal by Fri. N to NEly pressure gradients will gradually relax during the period and Nly/katabatic winds will transition to Sly...and the potential for patchy fog in the Srn portion of the CWA will return. Model differences near the end of the EFP especially late Thu/Fri lower confidence in timing and any precip chances for our CWA. Have to believe the strength of the ridge will prevail with an initial system trying to break it down on Thu. Models may also be trending Fri`s system farther N with our CWA on the Srn fringe of any precip chances...which now appear N of I-80. In the least...temperatures will be trending cooler. JHM && .AVIATION... Upper ridge axis will be shifting Ewd over Norcal today and tonite. Clear skies...light winds and high humidity under strong subsidence create ideal conditions for radiation fog this morning. HRRR forecast VSBY suggests IFR/LIFR conditions in FG are possible in the Central Vly from KMOD to as far N as KMYV...KOVE...KCIC. Conditions improving to VFR after 18z-20z. Weak wx system encountering ridge axis will spread some light rain across the Nrn mtns tonite...with patchy FG possible again from KMYV Swd Sat morning. && .STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1001 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW PRESSURE TO TRAVEL ALONG AFTER SUNRISE. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL DELIVER A MIX OF RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/... 10 AM UPDATE... KBOX CC DATA SHOWS A NEARLY STALLING RAIN/SNOW LINE JUST OVER THE CC CANAL AT THIS TIME. IF ANYTHING IT/S LIKELY TO PIVOT TO A MORE S-N ORIENTATION. OTHERWISE SNOW FOR MOST EVERYONE AT THIS POINT EVEN WITH MARGINAL SFC TEMPS NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. RATIOS HAVE BEEN LOW SO FAR EVERYWHERE OUTSIDE OF WRN MA/CT WHERE THE CHANGEOVER OCCURRED EARLIER AND DWPTS CONTINUE TO DROP. THE KEY NOW IS TO MONITOR STRONG BANDING OCCURRING THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/CT CONNECTED TO A BAND AROUND H6-H5 OR RIGHT WITHIN THE -12C TO -18C GROWTH REGIME. HENCE WE ARE SEEING 1-2 INCH/HOUR RATES IN AN AREA OF 30DBZ. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT SLIGHTLY THEN SLIDE E THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...STILL EXPECT GOOD ACCUMS OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS FOR CENTRAL MA/CT AS WELL AS RI AND ERN MA A BIT LATER. AS SUCH HAVE UPPED TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION AND NOW FEATURE A BAND OF 8+ INCHES FROM NE CT-NRN RI AND CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MA. MORE REFINEMENT LIKELY TO COME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... *** WESTWARD TREND IN THE SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED FOR WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES TO BE EXPANDED *** BUSY NIGHT AS WE CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE LATEST DATA AND TRENDS FOR THIS UPCOMING WINTER SYSTEM. PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENS. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO BE CLOSE TO AN INCH. BIGGEST TREND BETWEEN THE 12Z AND 00Z RUNS IS THAT THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD TREND. HEAVY PRECIP SWATH OVER NJ AND EASTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND IMPACT WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. BECAUSE OF THIS UPSTREAM TREND...HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE PIONEER VALLEY. ANY PRECIP THAT IS OR WILL FALL WILL BE SNOW ACROSS THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERKS AS MESONET SITES ARE ALREADY REPORTING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP GUIDANCE. ASIDE FROM THE EXPANSION...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF EITHER SNOW...OR A WINTRY MIX ACROSS CENTRAL MASS AND INTO CT. THIS IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE LATEST DUAL-POL DATA. HIGHER REFLECTIVITY ECHOES ARE STARTING TO MOVE INTO WINDHAM COUNTY...WHICH WILL BE EITHER A MIX OR JUST SNOW AS 925 MB TEMPS ARE ALREADY BELOW 32F PER SPC MESO DATA. ANTICIPATE THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO BE FAIRLY BUSY WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND SURFACE LOW NEARS. P-TYPE AND CHANGE OVER TIMING... MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS COASTAL LOW MOVES ALONG STALLED COLD FRONT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE PRECIP SHIED HAS EXPANDED FARTHER WESTWARD THEN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...WHICH IS THE LATEST TREND IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 06Z NAM. CHANGE OVER HAS ALREADY STARTED TO OCCUR ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE FALLING. ANTICIPATE THE CHANGE OVER TO MAKE IT TO SOUTHEASTERN MASS INCLUDING BOS AND PVD CLOSER TO THE 6-8 AM HOUR. THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER AS CAA WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO REACH THEM. FEEL IT WILL BE CLOSER TO 10AM-NOON. ALTHOUGH SLEET MAY MIX IN DURING THE TRANSITION...BELIEVE MANY LOCATIONS WILL SWITCH FROM RAIN TO STRAIGHT SNOW. QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS... HAVE ADJUSTED THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. GENERALLY BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING WILL GET AT LEAST A SLOPPY 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HILLS WITHIN TOLLAND...WINDHAM...WORCESTER AND PROVIDENCE COUNTIES. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR QPF. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES. BELIEVE WE HAVE A GOOD TREND GOING AT THIS TIME. SOME AREAS IN QUESTION WHICH COULD BE UPGRADED WITHIN THE WARNING IS SOUTHERN BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES. HOWEVER THESE LOCATIONS MAY BE STUCK IN THE MIX LONGER KEEPING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOW. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERK TO AN ADV AS SNOW IS ALREADY STARTING TO FALL PER WEBCAMS. THE PIONEER AND CONNECTICUT VALLEY MAY SEE LOWER AMOUNTS AS WELL THANKS TO SHADOWING. SO EVEN THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS ARE OUT...THERE STILL COULD BE SOME CHANGES THANKS TO SOME MESOSCALE ISSUES. IMPACTS... DUE TO THE FACT THAT SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOW WITH THIS STORM...AND BANDING WITH 1+ INCH/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. THIS WILL BE EXACERBATED BY A LLJ AROUND 40 KT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME OF IT/S MOMENTUM. THEREFORE...THE COMBINATION OF WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND HEAVY WET SNOW MAY INCREASE THE RISK. THE OTHER PRIMARY IMPACT IS THAT THE CHANGE-OVER AND HEAVIEST PRECIP/SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF THE AM COMMUTE...WITH LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND SLIPPERY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. && .SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... THE MORE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IN RELATION TO PREVIOUS PROGS SUGGEST A SLOWER END. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE DRYING THE LOW LEVELS...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW LEFTOVER MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MA BEFORE THINGS END BY EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY DROP OFF DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY CAUSE ANY UNTREATED ROADS TO BE SLIPPERY FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... BIG PICTURE... LONGWAVE SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WEST AND DIGGING TROUGH IN THE EAST...POINTING TO WARM TREND WEST AND COOLING EAST. SMALLER SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW A THREE-RING CIRCUS OF SHORTWAVES EITHER AFFECTING OR WITH POTENTIAL TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH TWO SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHERE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES COULD OCCUR. MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS ALSO AGREE ON TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS...ONE WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY AND A SECOND CLOSE TO SHORE TUESDAY. BUT ALL SHOW DIFFERING SCENARIOS FOR HOW THESE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BEST CONFIDENCE IN HANDLING THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEMS IS WITH THE GEFS /ENSEMBLES/ THE DAILIES... TONIGHT-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA. EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND OVER FRESH SNOW COVER MAY LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT THAN INDICATED BY GUIDANCE. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...WE BUMPED GUIDANCE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES. ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING SOUTHWEST...THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD REACH AROUND 950 MB. TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. SUNDAY...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE NORTHEAST USA. THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO LOSE THE FRONT IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS SUGGEST JUST A FEW CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING BY SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S. THE COLDER AIR ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING MIN TEMPS ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...GENERATES A SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST USA COAST. THIS COASTAL LOW THEN MOVES NORTHEAST AND PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF OUR AREA. NORMALLY THIS PATH WOULD KEEP PCPN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WE COULD DEVELOP SUFFICIENT MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE TO BRING CLOUDS AND PCPN MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...BUT WITH POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW MIX NEAR THE COAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ASHORE FROM THE PACIFIC TONIGHT AND CROSSES TO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DIGS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND LEADS TO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW THEN MOVES UP THE COAST TUESDAY AND PASSES OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. EACH MODEL HANDLES THIS COASTAL LOW DIFFERENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS LOW. CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES FEET-DRY ON THE PACIFIC COAST. BEST DYNAMICS UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET MOVES OFF TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...SO BEST CHANCE OF PCPN SHOULD BE ON TUESDAY THEN DIMINISH TO SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. PTYPE AGAIN FAVORS SNOW INLAND AND SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE COAST. UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL FROM THE MIDWEST LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THROUGH THURSDAY MAINTAINING SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... THROUGH 18Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS. THE CHANGE OVER LINE IS PUSHING THROUGH UUU AND PYM. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SWITCHING ALL PRECIP TO SNOW. ANTICIPATE SNOW ACCUMS ON THE RUNWAYS ESP ORH...BOS AND PVD. GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20-30 KTS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AFTER 15Z. AFTER 18Z TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SNOWS/RAIN COME TO AN END AND VERY QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TODAY... NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND 35-45 KT ON THE EASTERN WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SEAS BECOME HIGH...MAINLY 8-10 FT ON THE SE OCEAN WATERS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN/FOG ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO SNOW NEAR THE EASTERN SHORELINES. OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE... TONIGHT...DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS EARLY AND POPPING UNDER 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS AS HIGH AS 14 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT TO 5-7 FEET BY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST WATERS DURING THE NIGHT. SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY BELOW 25 KNOTS BUT GUSTING NEAR 25 KNOTS EAST OF CAPE ANN SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS DIMINISH SATURDAY BUT THEN RETURN TO NEAR 5 FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MONDAY-TUESDAY...NORTH WINDS TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST NEAR 30 KNOTS EACH DAY. DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL BEHAVIOR OF THE TWO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS PASSING BY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO REACH 35-40 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR GALES AT THIS TIME...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. WINDS TURN BACK TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ003- 004. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ002. MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ019>022. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ004>007-012>018-026. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ002-003-008>011. RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ007. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ001>006. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237- 250-254>256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230- 236-251. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN NEAR TERM...DOODY SHORT TERM...DUNTEN LONG TERM...WTB AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
628 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW PRESSURE TO TRAVEL ALONG AFTER SUNRISE. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL DELIVER A MIX OF RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/... 630 AM UPDATE... NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. DUAL-POL RADAR DATA SHOWS THE CHANGE OVER LINE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN RI AND INTO PLYMOUTH MASS. THIS LINE WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALREADY RECEIVING A FEW 1 INCH REPORTS WHICH LINES UP WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST. THESE AMOUNTS ARE LOCATED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WORCESTER AND TOLLAND COUNTY. BELIEVE THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS. ALREADY NOTICING SOME BANDING DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN MASS...CENTRAL MASS. THIS LINES UP WITH THE STRONG OMEGA LIFT WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. COULD SEE VSBYS REDUCED QUICKLY WITHIN THESE BANDS AND A QUICK INCH OR TWO WITHIN THESE BANDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... *** WESTWARD TREND IN THE SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED FOR WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES TO BE EXPANDED *** BUSY NIGHT AS WE CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE LATEST DATA AND TRENDS FOR THIS UPCOMING WINTER SYSTEM. PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENS. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO BE CLOSE TO AN INCH. BIGGEST TREND BETWEEN THE 12Z AND 00Z RUNS IS THAT THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD TREND. HEAVY PRECIP SWATH OVER NJ AND EASTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND IMPACT WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. BECAUSE OF THIS UPSTREAM TREND...HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE PIONEER VALLEY. ANY PRECIP THAT IS OR WILL FALL WILL BE SNOW ACROSS THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERKS AS MESONET SITES ARE ALREADY REPORTING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP GUIDANCE. ASIDE FROM THE EXPANSION...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF EITHER SNOW...OR A WINTRY MIX ACROSS CENTRAL MASS AND INTO CT. THIS IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE LATEST DUAL-POL DATA. HIGHER REFLECTIVITY ECHOES ARE STARTING TO MOVE INTO WINDHAM COUNTY...WHICH WILL BE EITHER A MIX OR JUST SNOW AS 925 MB TEMPS ARE ALREADY BELOW 32F PER SPC MESO DATA. ANTICIPATE THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO BE FAIRLY BUSY WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND SURFACE LOW NEARS. P-TYPE AND CHANGE OVER TIMING... MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS COASTAL LOW MOVES ALONG STALLED COLD FRONT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE PRECIP SHIED HAS EXPANDED FARTHER WESTWARD THEN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...WHICH IS THE LATEST TREND IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 06Z NAM. CHANGE OVER HAS ALREADY STARTED TO OCCUR ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE FALLING. ANTICIPATE THE CHANGE OVER TO MAKE IT TO SOUTHEASTERN MASS INCLUDING BOS AND PVD CLOSER TO THE 6-8 AM HOUR. THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER AS CAA WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO REACH THEM. FEEL IT WILL BE CLOSER TO 10AM-NOON. ALTHOUGH SLEET MAY MIX IN DURING THE TRANSITION...BELIEVE MANY LOCATIONS WILL SWITCH FROM RAIN TO STRAIGHT SNOW. QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS... HAVE ADJUSTED THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. GENERALLY BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING WILL GET AT LEAST A SLOPPY 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HILLS WITHIN TOLLAND...WINDHAM...WORCESTER AND PROVIDENCE COUNTIES. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR QPF. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES. BELIEVE WE HAVE A GOOD TREND GOING AT THIS TIME. SOME AREAS IN QUESTION WHICH COULD BE UPGRADED WITHIN THE WARNING IS SOUTHERN BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES. HOWEVER THESE LOCATIONS MAY BE STUCK IN THE MIX LONGER KEEPING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOW. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERK TO AN ADV AS SNOW IS ALREADY STARTING TO FALL PER WEBCAMS. THE PIONEER AND CONNECTICUT VALLEY MAY SEE LOWER AMOUNTS AS WELL THANKS TO SHADOWING. SO EVEN THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS ARE OUT...THERE STILL COULD BE SOME CHANGES THANKS TO SOME MESOSCALE ISSUES. IMPACTS... DUE TO THE FACT THAT SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOW WITH THIS STORM...AND BANDING WITH 1+ INCH/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. THIS WILL BE EXACERBATED BY A LLJ AROUND 40 KT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME OF IT/S MOMENTUM. THEREFORE...THE COMBINATION OF WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND HEAVY WET SNOW MAY INCREASE THE RISK. THE OTHER PRIMARY IMPACT IS THAT THE CHANGE-OVER AND HEAVIEST PRECIP/SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF THE AM COMMUTE...WITH LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND SLIPPERY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. && .SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... THE MORE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IN RELATION TO PREVIOUS PROGS SUGGEST A SLOWER END. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE DRYING THE LOW LEVELS...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW LEFTOVER MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MA BEFORE THINGS END BY EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY DROP OFF DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY CAUSE ANY UNTREATED ROADS TO BE SLIPPERY FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... BIG PICTURE... LONGWAVE SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW BUIDLING RIDGE IN THE WEST AND DIGGING TROUGH IN THE EAST...POINTING TO WARM TREND WEST AND COOLING EAST. SMALLER SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW A THREE-RING CIRCUS OF SHORTWAVES EITHER AFFECTING OR WITH POTENTIAL TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH TWO SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHERE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES COULD OCCUR. MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS ALSO AGREE ON TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS...ONE WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY AND A SECOND CLOSE TO SHORE TUESDAY. BUT ALL SHOW DIFFERING SCENARIOS FOR HOW THESE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BEST CONFIDENCE IN HANDLING THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEMS IS WITH THE GEFS /ENSEMBLES/ THE DAILIES... TONIGHT-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA. EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND OVER FRESH SNOW COVER MAY LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT THAN INDICATED BY GUIDENCE. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...WE BUMPED GUIDENCE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES. ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING SOUTHWEST...THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD REACH AROUND 950 MB. TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. SUNDAY...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE NORTHEAST USA. THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO LOSE THE FRONT IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS SUGGEST JUST A FEW CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING BY SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S. THE COLDER AIR ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING MIN TEMPS ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...GENERATES A SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST USA COAST. THIS COASTAL LOW THEN MOVES NORTHEAST AND PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF OUR AREA. NORMALLY THIS PATH WOULD KEEP PCPN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WE COULD DEVELOP SUFFICIENT MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE TO BRING CLOUDS AND PCPN MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...BUT WITH POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW MIX NEAR THE COAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ASHORE FROM THE PACIFIC TONIGHT AND CROSSES TO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DIGS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND LEADS TO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW THEN MOVES UP THE COAST TUESDAY AND PASSES OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. EACH MODEL HANDLES THIS COASTAL LOW DIFFERENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS LOW. CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES FEET-DRY ON THE PACIFIC COAST. BEST DYNAMICS UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET MOVES OFF TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...SO BEST CHANCE OF PCPN SHOULD BE ON TUESDAY THEN DIMINISH TO SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. PTYPE AGAIN FAVORS SNOW INLAND AND SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE COAST. UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL FROM THE MIDWEST LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THROUGH THURSDAY MAINTAINING SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... THROUGH 18Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS. THE CHANGE OVER LINE IS PUSHING THROUGH UUU AND PYM. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SWITCHING ALL PRECIP TO SNOW. ANTICIPATE SNOW ACCUMS ON THE RUNWAYS ESP ORH...BOS AND PVD. GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20-30 KTS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AFTER 15Z. AFTER 18Z TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SNOWS/RAIN COME TO AN END AND VERY QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. OUTLOOK /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TODAY... NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND 35-45 KT ON THE EASTERN WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SEAS BECOME HIGH...MAINLY 8-10 FT ON THE SE OCEAN WATERS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN/FOG ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO SNOW NEAR THE EASTERN SHORELINES. OUTLOOK /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE... TONIGHT...DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS EARLY AND POPPING UNDER 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS AS HIGH AS 14 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT TO 5-7 FEET BY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST WATERS DURING THE NIGHT. SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY BELOW 25 KNOTS BUT GUSTING NEAR 25 KNOTS EAST OF CAPE ANN SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS DIMINISH SATURDAY BUT THEN RETURN TO NEAR 5 FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MONDAY-TUESDAY...NORTH WINDS TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST NEAR 30 KNOTS EACH DAY. DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL BEHAVIOR OF THE TWO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS PASSING BY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO REACH 35-40 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR GALES AT THIS TIME...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. WINDS TURN BACK TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ003- 004. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ002. MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ019>022. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ004>007-012>018-026. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ002-003-008>011. RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ007. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ001>006. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237- 250-254>256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230- 236-251. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN NEAR TERM...DUNTEN SHORT TERM...DUNTEN LONG TERM...WTB AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1030 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1030 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 AFTER A COLD MORNING...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TOWARDS THE 40 DEGREE MARK TODAY WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. SO DID A QUICK REFRESH TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1007 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 HAVE UPDATED THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST TO REMOVE RAIN FOR ALL OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DURING THIS TIME SHOW THAT PRECIP WILL BE SNOW DUE TO COMPLETE LACK OF ANY WARM AIR ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPS BEING NEAR FREEZING OR COLDER. ALSO TRIED TO DO SOME INITIAL FINE TUNING OF PRECIP TIMING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. UPDATE ISSUED AT 800 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO MAINLY FINE TUNE THE T AND TD GRIDS THROUGH THE MORNING BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS HIGH IS CLEARING THE SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING... ALSO BRINGING AN END TO SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST. CLEAR SKIES SPREADING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...WILL SUPPORT AN EXTRA DROP OFF IN TEMPS FOR THE VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN. AS IT STANDS NOW...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 20S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION TO THE UPPER 20S ON THE RIDGES AND LOCATIONS STILL UNDER THE CLOUDS ALONG AND NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND 20 DEGREES ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...CURRENTLY. THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL TAKE ANOTHER BOTTOMING OUT SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. THIS LEAVES EAST KENTUCKY IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING TODAY AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT... MAINLY SOUTHERN STREAM...TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WAVE BECOMES MORE ISOLATED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS IT DIVES TO THE GULF COAST AND STARTS TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS SHOW LIMITED SEPARATION FROM EACH OTHER AT THIS TIME STEP WITH THE GFS THE WEAKEST AND CANADIAN A CLOSE MATCH TO THE ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WITH ONLY A WEAK STREAM OF ENERGY SET TO DRIFT OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND WAS USED FOR THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST... WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR NEAR TERM DETAILS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER THE CONTROL...A TERM USED LOOSELY...OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. IN FACT...GIVEN SOME LIMITED ENERGY ALOFT AND THE WAVE PASSING TO THE SOUTH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FOR THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THOUGH HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR NOW. WHAT WE WILL HAVE IS MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH READINGS REACHING THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR TODAY...GOOD SUNSHINE...AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...WILL ERASE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S MOST PLACES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND FOR T/TD/WIND GRIDS TODAY BEFORE FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH SATURDAY. DID ADJUST THE MIN TEMPS A TAD THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT FOR MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW...SINGLE DIGITS...IN LINE WITH MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH THEY MAY BE A HAIR TOO LOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 347 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD START OFF QUIETLY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO END THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY TOPPING AROUND 50 ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE STEADILY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY EVENING...AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BARRELS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE FIRST PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MIX WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. THE PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW COLD AIR TO SPILL QUICKLY INTO THE REGION. THIS CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES CAUSE THE RAIN TO TRANSITION QUICKLY TO A RAIN SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW BY LATE MONDAY EVENING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND FREEZING. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PERIODS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN RAIN MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER. THE LAST BIT OF SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO DRY AND COLD. THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGHS ON THAT DAY ARE ONLY FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS ON THAT DAY FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE COLDEST NIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE MERCURY WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS BOTH NIGHTS. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE LOWS IN THE 20S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 715 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JVM SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1007 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1007 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 HAVE UPDATED THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST TO REMOVE RAIN FOR ALL OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DURING THIS TIME SHOW THAT PRECIP WILL BE SNOW DUE TO COMPLETE LACK OF ANY WARM AIR ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPS BEING NEAR FREEZING OR COLDER. ALSO TRIED TO DO SOME INITIAL FINE TUNING OF PRECIP TIMING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. UPDATE ISSUED AT 800 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO MAINLY FINE TUNE THE T AND TD GRIDS THROUGH THE MORNING BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS HIGH IS CLEARING THE SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING... ALSO BRINGING AN END TO SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST. CLEAR SKIES SPREADING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...WILL SUPPORT AN EXTRA DROP OFF IN TEMPS FOR THE VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN. AS IT STANDS NOW...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 20S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION TO THE UPPER 20S ON THE RIDGES AND LOCATIONS STILL UNDER THE CLOUDS ALONG AND NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND 20 DEGREES ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...CURRENTLY. THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL TAKE ANOTHER BOTTOMING OUT SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. THIS LEAVES EAST KENTUCKY IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING TODAY AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT... MAINLY SOUTHERN STREAM...TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WAVE BECOMES MORE ISOLATED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS IT DIVES TO THE GULF COAST AND STARTS TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS SHOW LIMITED SEPARATION FROM EACH OTHER AT THIS TIME STEP WITH THE GFS THE WEAKEST AND CANADIAN A CLOSE MATCH TO THE ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WITH ONLY A WEAK STREAM OF ENERGY SET TO DRIFT OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND WAS USED FOR THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST... WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR NEAR TERM DETAILS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER THE CONTROL...A TERM USED LOOSELY...OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. IN FACT...GIVEN SOME LIMITED ENERGY ALOFT AND THE WAVE PASSING TO THE SOUTH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FOR THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THOUGH HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR NOW. WHAT WE WILL HAVE IS MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH READINGS REACHING THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR TODAY...GOOD SUNSHINE...AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...WILL ERASE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S MOST PLACES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND FOR T/TD/WIND GRIDS TODAY BEFORE FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH SATURDAY. DID ADJUST THE MIN TEMPS A TAD THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT FOR MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW...SINGLE DIGITS...IN LINE WITH MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH THEY MAY BE A HAIR TOO LOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 347 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD START OFF QUIETLY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO END THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY TOPPING AROUND 50 ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE STEADILY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY EVENING...AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BARRELS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE FIRST PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MIX WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. THE PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW COLD AIR TO SPILL QUICKLY INTO THE REGION. THIS CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES CAUSE THE RAIN TO TRANSITION QUICKLY TO A RAIN SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW BY LATE MONDAY EVENING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND FREEZING. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PERIODS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN RAIN MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER. THE LAST BIT OF SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO DRY AND COLD. THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGHS ON THAT DAY ARE ONLY FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS ON THAT DAY FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE COLDEST NIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE MERCURY WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS BOTH NIGHTS. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE LOWS IN THE 20S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 715 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL/GREIF SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
800 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 800 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO MAINLY FINE TUNE THE T AND TD GRIDS THROUGH THE MORNING BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS HIGH IS CLEARING THE SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING... ALSO BRINGING AN END TO SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST. CLEAR SKIES SPREADING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...WILL SUPPORT AN EXTRA DROP OFF IN TEMPS FOR THE VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN. AS IT STANDS NOW...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 20S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION TO THE UPPER 20S ON THE RIDGES AND LOCATIONS STILL UNDER THE CLOUDS ALONG AND NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND 20 DEGREES ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...CURRENTLY. THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL TAKE ANOTHER BOTTOMING OUT SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. THIS LEAVES EAST KENTUCKY IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING TODAY AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT... MAINLY SOUTHERN STREAM...TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WAVE BECOMES MORE ISOLATED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS IT DIVES TO THE GULF COAST AND STARTS TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS SHOW LIMITED SEPARATION FROM EACH OTHER AT THIS TIME STEP WITH THE GFS THE WEAKEST AND CANADIAN A CLOSE MATCH TO THE ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WITH ONLY A WEAK STREAM OF ENERGY SET TO DRIFT OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND WAS USED FOR THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST... WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR NEAR TERM DETAILS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER THE CONTROL...A TERM USED LOOSELY...OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. IN FACT...GIVEN SOME LIMITED ENERGY ALOFT AND THE WAVE PASSING TO THE SOUTH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FOR THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THOUGH HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR NOW. WHAT WE WILL HAVE IS MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH READINGS REACHING THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR TODAY...GOOD SUNSHINE...AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...WILL ERASE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S MOST PLACES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND FOR T/TD/WIND GRIDS TODAY BEFORE FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH SATURDAY. DID ADJUST THE MIN TEMPS A TAD THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT FOR MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW...SINGLE DIGITS...IN LINE WITH MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH THEY MAY BE A HAIR TOO LOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 347 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD START OFF QUIETLY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO END THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY TOPPING AROUND 50 ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE STEADILY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY EVENING...AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BARRELS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE FIRST PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MIX WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. THE PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW COLD AIR TO SPILL QUICKLY INTO THE REGION. THIS CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES CAUSE THE RAIN TO TRANSITION QUICKLY TO A RAIN SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW BY LATE MONDAY EVENING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND FREEZING. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PERIODS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN RAIN MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER. THE LAST BIT OF SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO DRY AND COLD. THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGHS ON THAT DAY ARE ONLY FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS ON THAT DAY FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE COLDEST NIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE MERCURY WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS BOTH NIGHTS. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE LOWS IN THE 20S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 715 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
947 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 942 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016 12z NAM initialized a stronger vorticity max over south central NE than shown in earlier progs. RAP is a bit weaker. Both models track the feature east this morning/afternoon. Area of light snow tied to this feature will be moving into a rather dry airmass as noted by the dirt-dry sub-cloud region on the 12z TOP raob. Latest short-range models are more bullish in keeping this area of snow intact, albiet diminishing it as it moves into far northwest MO. NAM also showing moderate moist isentropic ascent on the 280-285K surfaces. Will add chance PoPs to far northwest MO for this afternoon with sligth chances spreading across the northern two tier of counties. Will monitor radar trends and if the snow holds together better than anticipated will look to raise PoPs. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 347 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016 Very little change to the going forecast philosophy, with overall quiet weather on the horizon. Two shortwave troughs will be featured over the next few days, but with limited moisture, little in the way of sensible weather will be noted for the area. Mid/high clouds will steadily increase during the day with readings warming into the middle 30s to middle 40s. The first disturbance arrives overnight and besides the increase in cloud cover, a few sprinkles cannot be completely ruled out. Downglide quickly clears out cloud cover as system departs on Saturday, with a continued mild weekend on tap for the weekend. The second disturbance arrives Sunday/Monday, with slightly more notable weather. A strengthening pressure gradient will allow for gusty northwesterly winds on Sunday. Enough dynamics and low-level moisture may allow for light precipitation in the form of snow over the eastern two-thirds of the CWA. Much colder air will advect into the area as the pattern becomes much more amplified heading into early next week before readings gradually moderate to near normal levels by the middle of the work week. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning) Issued at 537 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016 VFR conditions are expected through much of the period with a gradual lowering of high to mid level cloudiness throughout the day. Main concern is potential for MVFR/IFR window between 09-13Z Saturday with either scattered stratus and/or drizzle. Have not included into forecast with high uncertainy and being end of the period, but will need to be closely monitored. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MJ DISCUSSION...Blair AVIATION...Blair
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
440 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016 .AVIATION... 12Z TAF CYCLE A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HAVE CROSSED NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO BY MID DAY TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT SPILLING SOUTHWARD INTO THE STATE. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE PLAINS. SNOW WILL TEND TO FAVOR THE PEAKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS EASTWARD TO THE RATON RIDGE AND JOHNSON MESA WHERE SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH PERIODIC MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. A STRAY SHOWER MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT AREAS AS FAR SOUTH AS KTCC...BUT THIS WILL BE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY WITH NO LONG DURATION IMPACTS EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KT WILL BE COMMON ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO TODAY. SHOWERS WILL CLEAR AROUND DUSK WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. 52 && .PREV DISCUSSION...315 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016... .SYNOPSIS... A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TODAY...BRINGING A REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR...GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND SOME MEAGER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND WILL THEN DOMINATE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND STEERS STORMS AWAY FROM NEW MEXICO THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH SEASONAL VALUES OR ABOVE BY NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY. && .DISCUSSION... ANOTHER DAY...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND EAST...BUT OVERALL NOT ANTICIPATING SPEEDS WILL REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE THERE COULD BE SOME MOSTLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND ALONG THE FAR NORTHEAST...SUCH AS RATON PASS/SIERRA GRANDE WHERE THEY COULD SEE POSSIBLY AN INCH OR TWO...BUT NOT THINKING IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ANY WINTER TYPE HIGHLIGHTS. HRRR DOES SUGGEST SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AS WELL AS THE ECMWF WHICH PAINTS ISOLATED MEASURABLE AMOUNTS IN THE EAST CENTRAL...BOTH WHERE CURRENT GRIDS HAVE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT POPS TODAY. SO LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TRENDING TOWARDS GREATER AREAL COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT PLUMMET AGAIN FOR THE NORTHERN MTS...BUT GUIDANCE DOESN/T INDICATE IT WILL BE QUITE AS COLD AS THURSDAY MORNING LOWS WERE. ANOTHER DRY WAVE SENDS A FRONT INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY BUT COOLING EFFECTS MORE LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THEREAFTER...DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND WILL DOMINATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES FINALLY REBOUND TO NORMAL OR ABOVE BY TUESDAY OVERALL. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT. LATE NEXT WEEK...THE GFS ALLOWS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE DRAWN INTO NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH STRETCHED THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THE ECMWF DEPICTS MORE OF A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM...DRIER AND COOLER. && .FIRE WEATHER... ONE QUICK-MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWUNG THROUGH NORTHERN NM EARLIER LAST EVENING...AND A SECOND ONE IS QUICKLY FOLLOWING ON ITS HEELS AND WILL CROSS OVER NORTHEAST NM BY LATE MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS ALSO DROPPING SOUTH INTO NM...AND THIS WILL BRING A TEMPORARY CESSATION TO THE WARMING TREND. SOME LOWER-BASED CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTH CENTRAL NM...GRADUALLY EXTENDING INTO NORTHEASTERN NM BY MID DAY. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF INCHES FORESEEN NEAR THE RATON RIDGE/PASS. AS THE COLD FRONT SPILLS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA...SOME WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NM. IT WILL BE HERE WHERE VENTILATION RATES WILL BE BOOSTED...BUT ELSEWHERE EXPECT SMOKE DISPERSION RATES TO REMAIN IN THE POOR CATEGORY TODAY. AS THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS MORE WEST NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY...IT WILL RELAX AND BECOME MORE STABLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO RISING PRESSURE HEIGHTS AND CONSEQUENTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH SATURDAYS HIGHS RISING 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE TODAYS. THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NM WILL OBSERVE THE LARGEST GAINS WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS. STIFF SURFACE/20FT BREEZES WILL STILL TAKE SHAPE IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COME LOWER HUMIDITY. PATCHES OF CENTRAL NM AND MOST OF THE EASTERN ZONES WILL OBSERVE MINIMUM HUMIDITY OF 10-20 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE AREA OF STRONGER WINDS IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE JUXTAPOSED OVER ANY CRITICAL RH AREAS AT THIS TIME. POOR VENTILATION IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THEN THE FLOW RETURNS TO A MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL COMPONENT FROM THE NORTHWEST HOSTING YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT. THIS PERTURBATION SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF NM EARLY SUNDAY...BUT STILL THE NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF NM. ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SLIP INTO EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY SUNDAY...BUT THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOES NOT APPEAR TO DISRUPT THE FORECAST AREA FROM REACHING NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. AFTER SUNDAY...THE THEME FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE A DRY...TRANQUIL...AND WARMER PATTERN. VENTILATION RATES WILL SUFFER...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP WELL ABOVE NORMAL. 52 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
315 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TODAY...BRINGING A REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR...GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND SOME MEAGER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND WILL THEN DOMINATE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND STEERS STORMS AWAY FROM NEW MEXICO THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH SEASONAL VALUES OR ABOVE BY NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY. && .DISCUSSION... ANOTHER DAY...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND EAST...BUT OVERALL NOT ANTICIPATING SPEEDS WILL REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE THERE COULD BE SOME MOSTLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND ALONG THE FAR NORTHEAST...SUCH AS RATON PASS/SIERRA GRANDE WHERE THEY COULD SEE POSSIBLY AN INCH OR TWO...BUT NOT THINKING IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ANY WINTER TYPE HIGHLIGHTS. HRRR DOES SUGGEST SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AS WELL AS THE ECMWF WHICH PAINTS ISOLATED MEASURABLE AMOUNTS IN THE EAST CENTRAL...BOTH WHERE CURRENT GRIDS HAVE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT POPS TODAY. SO LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TRENDING TOWARDS GREATER AREAL COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT PLUMMET AGAIN FOR THE NORTHERN MTS...BUT GUIDANCE DOESN/T INDICATE IT WILL BE QUITE AS COLD AS THURSDAY MORNING LOWS WERE. ANOTHER DRY WAVE SENDS A FRONT INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY BUT COOLING EFFECTS MORE LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THEREAFTER...DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND WILL DOMINATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES FINALLY REBOUND TO NORMAL OR ABOVE BY TUESDAY OVERALL. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT. LATE NEXT WEEK...THE GFS ALLOWS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE DRAWN INTO NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH STRETCHED THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THE ECMWF DEPICTS MORE OF A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM...DRIER AND COOLER. && .FIRE WEATHER... ONE QUICK-MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWUNG THROUGH NORTHERN NM EARLIER LAST EVENING...AND A SECOND ONE IS QUICKLY FOLLOWING ON ITS HEELS AND WILL CROSS OVER NORTHEAST NM BY LATE MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS ALSO DROPPING SOUTH INTO NM...AND THIS WILL BRING A TEMPORARY CESSATION TO THE WARMING TREND. SOME LOWER-BASED CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTH CENTRAL NM...GRADUALLY EXTENDING INTO NORTHEASTERN NM BY MID DAY. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF INCHES FORESEEN NEAR THE RATON RIDGE/PASS. AS THE COLD FRONT SPILLS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA...SOME WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NM. IT WILL BE HERE WHERE VENTILATION RATES WILL BE BOOSTED...BUT ELSEWHERE EXPECT SMOKE DISPERSION RATES TO REMAIN IN THE POOR CATEGORY TODAY. AS THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS MORE WEST NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY...IT WILL RELAX AND BECOME MORE STABLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO RISING PRESSURE HEIGHTS AND CONSEQUENTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH SATURDAYS HIGHS RISING 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE TODAYS. THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NM WILL OBSERVE THE LARGEST GAINS WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS. STIFF SURFACE/20FT BREEZES WILL STILL TAKE SHAPE IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COME LOWER HUMIDITY. PATCHES OF CENTRAL NM AND MOST OF THE EASTERN ZONES WILL OBSERVE MINIMUM HUMIDITY OF 10-20 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE AREA OF STRONGER WINDS IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE JUXTAPOSED OVER ANY CRITICAL RH AREAS AT THIS TIME. POOR VENTILATION IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THEN THE FLOW RETURNS TO A MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL COMPONENT FROM THE NORTHWEST HOSTING YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT. THIS PERTURBATION SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF NM EARLY SUNDAY...BUT STILL THE NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF NM. ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SLIP INTO EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY SUNDAY...BUT THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOES NOT APPEAR TO DISRUPT THE FORECAST AREA FROM REACHING NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. AFTER SUNDAY...THE THEME FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE A DRY...TRANQUIL...AND WARMER PATTERN. VENTILATION RATES WILL SUFFER...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP WELL ABOVE NORMAL. 52 && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS. MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS WILL EXIT THE STATE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUNCH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TCC AND ROW MID TO LATE MORNING. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KT AT TCC AND ROW DURING THE DAY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NE FRIDAY BUT CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS. 40 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 34 10 38 17 / 0 0 0 0 DULCE........................... 28 -11 34 0 / 5 0 0 0 CUBA............................ 30 3 37 13 / 5 0 0 0 GALLUP.......................... 39 1 47 10 / 0 0 0 0 EL MORRO........................ 35 -2 43 7 / 0 0 0 0 GRANTS.......................... 39 0 47 10 / 0 0 0 0 QUEMADO......................... 35 6 46 15 / 0 0 0 0 GLENWOOD........................ 46 12 53 18 / 0 0 0 0 CHAMA........................... 25 -10 33 6 / 10 0 5 0 LOS ALAMOS...................... 32 13 40 22 / 5 0 0 0 PECOS........................... 35 13 41 21 / 10 0 0 0 CERRO/QUESTA.................... 27 -9 36 7 / 10 0 0 5 RED RIVER....................... 22 -17 34 -2 / 10 0 0 5 ANGEL FIRE...................... 25 -21 37 -5 / 20 0 0 5 TAOS............................ 31 -7 38 8 / 5 0 0 0 MORA............................ 33 9 43 19 / 10 0 0 0 ESPANOLA........................ 36 8 44 18 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA FE........................ 32 10 40 19 / 5 0 0 0 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 35 12 42 20 / 5 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 38 15 44 23 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 41 18 46 25 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 42 12 47 21 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 41 14 47 22 / 0 0 0 0 LOS LUNAS....................... 43 13 48 19 / 0 0 0 0 RIO RANCHO...................... 40 17 46 24 / 0 0 0 0 SOCORRO......................... 45 20 50 25 / 0 0 0 0 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 35 13 42 22 / 0 0 0 0 TIJERAS......................... 37 14 43 23 / 0 0 0 0 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 38 1 46 15 / 0 0 0 0 CLINES CORNERS.................. 32 13 40 22 / 5 0 0 0 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 39 17 46 25 / 0 0 0 0 CARRIZOZO....................... 44 20 49 27 / 0 0 0 0 RUIDOSO......................... 38 21 47 30 / 0 5 0 0 CAPULIN......................... 32 4 48 19 / 30 0 0 5 RATON........................... 36 3 49 17 / 20 0 0 5 SPRINGER........................ 35 6 49 18 / 10 0 0 0 LAS VEGAS....................... 34 8 50 22 / 5 0 0 0 CLAYTON......................... 37 18 56 25 / 10 0 0 0 ROY............................. 38 15 54 24 / 5 0 0 0 CONCHAS......................... 42 16 56 25 / 5 0 0 0 SANTA ROSA...................... 43 17 57 26 / 5 5 0 0 TUCUMCARI....................... 45 18 59 26 / 0 5 0 0 CLOVIS.......................... 44 20 57 28 / 5 5 0 0 PORTALES........................ 45 19 58 28 / 5 5 0 0 FORT SUMNER..................... 46 18 58 27 / 5 5 0 0 ROSWELL......................... 50 17 61 27 / 0 5 0 0 PICACHO......................... 47 22 57 32 / 0 5 0 0 ELK............................. 44 21 54 31 / 0 5 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1015 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1015 AM FRIDAY... THE EARLY MORNING RAIN/SNOW MIX HAS FIZZLED AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...WHICH IS NOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND 4000K FT IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SOME VERY SHALLOW INSTABILITY...PER RAP SOUNDINGS...COULD STILL RESULT IN A FEW RAIN DROPS EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR THROUGH NOON. HOWEVER...WITH THE MOISTURE STEADILY ERODING AND STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT...HAVE REMOVED REMAIN POPS. COLD ADVECTION AT 850MB IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO BETWEEN 925MB AND 850NMB SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 40S...A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. -SMITH WINDS DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES... AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST SHIFTS OVERHEAD. LOWS 23-29... COLDEST IN THE RURAL PIEDMONT AND WRN SANDHILLS. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY... THE WEEKEND WILL START OUT QUIET... ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE RISE... WITH PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE LATE SAT NIGHT IN THE FAR SE. INITIALLY DRY AND STABLE AIR OVER CENTRAL NC WILL LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE TO START SAT. THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO NE ACROSS NC EARLY SAT WILL NARROW FURTHER AND BE OVERTAKEN BY LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE BAHAMAS ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE... IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE APPROACH OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW DIVING DOWN THROUGH ERN CO/NM. AS THIS AMPLIFYING WAVE CROSSES THE GULF STATES/NRN GULF AND SOUTHEAST SAT/SAT NIGHT... THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN QUICKLY AND TRACK TO THE NE... STAYING FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE FOR CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER... A FEW MODELS SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ATLANTIC MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW TO SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP INTO OUR FAR SE CWA OVERNIGHT. THE LOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT DRY BELOW 5 000 FT... WHICH WOULD MAKE ANY PRECIP VERY LIGHT WITH ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT THIS PRECIP BEING MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW... AND THIS IS ALSO WHAT IS INDICATED BY THE TOP-DOWN METHODOLOGY... AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD SATURATION UP TO AND ABOVE -20C WITH A COLD COLUMN. WILL BRING IN SMALL POPS IN OUR SOUTHEAST SAT NIGHT BUT WITH MINIMAL QPF AND NO NOTABLE IMPACT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SAT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH SOME RECOVERY IN THICKNESSES. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 20S NW TO LOWER 30S SE. -GIH && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY... SUNDAYS PROMINENT WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS AND THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. WHILE MUCH OF THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OFF OF THE COAST...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TO CREEP INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF OUR CWA ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE STORM. AT THIS TIME MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN WITH POTENTIALLY SOME WET SNOW MIXED IN PER NOMOGRAM THICKNESSES. DRY LOW LEVELS MAY KEEP SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND FOR A WHILE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY EVENING AT THE LATEST. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM AT THIS TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 50 DEGREES WITH AN UNUSUAL TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION OF WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST AND COLDEST IN THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO GREATER CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE STORM. LOWS MONDAY MORNING NEAR FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS. MONDAY WILL BEGIN WITH A LULL BETWEEN THE EXITING COASTAL SYSTEM AND THE NEXT LARGE UNORGANIZED SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL USHER IN ARCTIC AIR FROM CANADA. TIMING OF THE WEAK FRONT THAT WILL SIGNAL THE ARRIVAL OF THIS COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY SO TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH WILL STILL MAKE IT TO THE LOW 50S WITH MID 40S IN THE TRIAD. AS THIS IS A CONTINENTAL AIRMASS...THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM AT ALL AND PW VALUES REMAIN BELOW A HALF OF AN INCH. THAT BEING SAID...THERE WILL STILL BE SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...BEGINNING MOST LIKELY AFTER 15Z ON MONDAY AS RAIN. ANYTHING THAT FALLS SHOULD REMAIN RAIN UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING WHEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO ALL SNOW AFTER 3Z TUESDAY AS NOMOGRAM THICKNESSES TANK. BY THIS TIME HOWEVER...MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA AND ANY SNOW SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE AT THIS TIME. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S NW TO LOW 30S SE. SOME INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY BUT OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE AS QPF VALUES REMAIN VERY LOW. EVENTUALLY THE VERY DRY AIR WILL TAKE OVER AND THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME THE MAIN STORY AS HIGHS TUESDAY ONLY MAKE THE LOW TO MID 40S AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT DIVE INTO THE MID 20S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES AND WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS. DESPITE THE COLD...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ON THURSDAY THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO FINALLY LIFT OUT AND TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE MID 40S. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 605 AM FRIDAY... VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD AT INT/GSO THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS... HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OVER ERN TAFS THROUGH 13Z... WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT THESE SITES BY 15Z. A FRONTAL ZONE NOW SITS NEAR THE NC COAST... AND LOW PRESSURE NOW JUST EAST OF ILM WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NE ALONG THE FRONT. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES WILL AFFECT ERN TERMINALS (RDU/RWI/FAY) BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z... AS A POWERFUL DISTURBANCE ALOFT CROSSES THE REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING A QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT PRECIP LASTING JUST AN HOUR OR TWO... MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW MIXED WITH LIGHT RAIN. AFTER ABOUT 15Z... VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AT ALL SITES FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS FROM THE N AND NW WILL BE 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 18-23 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON... AFTER WHICH TIME SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NORTH FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT... WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING. LOOKING BEYOND 12Z SAT MORNING... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND... ALTHOUGH A LOW TRACKING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MAY BRING A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP TO FAY EARLY SUN MORNING. THE CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS WILL BE LOW. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND PATCHY PRECIP TO ALL SITES MON AFTERNOON INTO TUE. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/SMITH SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD LONG TERM...ELLIS AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1056 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT...BRINGING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL START THE NEW WORK WEEK AS A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1030 AM UPDATE... LAST HURRAH OF SNOW FROM THE UPPER SHORT WAVE IS PRESSING SWRD THRU THE CENTRAL COS RIGHT NOW. VIZ HAS OCCASIONALLY BE INTO LIFR AT BFD...BUT THEY ARE IMPROVING. IT JUST STARTED SNOWING OUT THE WINDOW AND THE CENTRAL MTNS WILL SEE MAINLY FLURRIES OR LIGHT SHSN INTO THE EARLY AFTN. IT MAY EVEN SNOW AT KMNDT - JUST AS HEAVILY AS IT DID ALL LAST NIGHT. ALL IN ALL...IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTN WITH CLEARING OVER WRN PA ATTM. FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THRU THE REST OF THE DAY. BUT CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE NRN MTNS ALL DAY. PREV... LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO STREAK UP OVER MY SERN ZONES...WITH FLURRIES FARTHER WEST OVER THE LAURELS AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HRRR AND RAP SHOW THE SNOW SHUTTING OFF QUICKLY BY MID MORNING. QPF ON THE ORDER OF A TRACE TO UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH REMAINS THE CONSENSUS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO ACCUMULATIONS IF THERE ARE ANY WILL PROBABLY BE CONFINED TO GRASSY SURFACES. FARTHER WEST A SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS HELPING TRIGGER SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THAT ARE GAINING A LITTLE PUSH FROM SOME OROGRAPHIC FORCING. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME LINGERING FLURRIES OVER THE USUAL HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NW...AS THE UPPER HEIGHTS REBOUND RAPIDLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL BREAK OVER OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF INTO THE 20S REGION-WIDE TONIGHT...WHICH FOR EARLY FEBRUARY WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... SATURDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH THE MOST CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AREAS...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES. HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...RISING INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN IS MADE TO EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW FORECAST TO DROP STEEPLY SE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS TIME THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF DO NOT GENERATE ANY KIND OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW/HEAVY PRECIP THREAT...BUT THE ENSEMBLE PLUMES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH ANYWHERE FROM AN INCH OR TWO TO A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW. ECENS SHOWS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...FAVORING THE HIGHER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. THE MAIN THING IS THERE IS NO INDICATION OF A SINGLE ROBUST SURFACE LOW THAT WOULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT STORMINESS...YET. THE SEEMINGLY MOST CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING OVER THE EASTERN US...DRIVING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION...AND A CHUNK OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR DOWN INTO THE GULF STATES. THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE NORMAL LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO LATE WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT KEEP US ON THE CHILLY AND UNSETTLED SIDE. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THIS AFTN...BUT SOME MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER LATE THIS AM AND EARLY AFTN IN THE CENTRAL TAF SITES - WITH JST AND BFD LIKELY IMPROVING FASTER THAN UNV. WIND WILL BACK WEST THEN SW AS HIGH PRES SLIDES IN . OUTLOOK... SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. MON-TUE...SNOW/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY W MTNS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LA CORTE AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
643 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP AND JUST OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY TODAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ITS WAKE AND BRINGS FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL START THE NEW WORKWEEK AS A COMPLEX AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO STREAK UP OVER MY SERN ZONES...WITH FLURRIES FARTHER WEST OVER THE LAURELS AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HRRR AND RAP SHOW THE SNOW SHUTTING OFF QUICKLY BY MID MORNING. QPF ON THE ORDER OF A TRACE TO UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH REMAINS THE CONSENSUS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO ACCUMULATIONS IF THERE ARE ANY WILL PROBABLY BE CONFINED TO GRASSY SURFACES. FARTHER WEST A SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS HELPING TRIGGER SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THAT ARE GAINING A LITTLE PUSH FROM SOME OROGRAPHIC FORCING. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME LINGERING FLURRIES OVER THE USUAL HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NW...AS THE UPPER HEIGHTS REBOUND RAPIDLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL BREAK OVER OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF INTO THE 20S REGION-WIDE TONIGHT...WHICH FOR EARLY FEBRUARY WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... SATURDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH THE MOST CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AREAS...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES. HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...RISING INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN IS MADE TO EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW FORECAST TO DROP STEEPLY SE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS TIME THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF DO NOT GENERATE ANY KIND OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW/HEAVY PRECIP THREAT...BUT THE ENSEMBLE PLUMES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH ANYWHERE FROM AN INCH OR TWO TO A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW. ECENS SHOWS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...FAVORING THE HIGHER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. THE MAIN THING IS THERE IS NO INDICATION OF A SINGLE ROBUST SURFACE LOW THAT WOULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT STORMINESS...YET. THE SEEMINGLY MOST CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING OVER THE EASTERN US...DRIVING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION...AND A CHUNK OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR DOWN INTO THE GULF STATES. THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE NORMAL LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO LATE WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT KEEP US ON THE CHILLY AND UNSETTLED SIDE. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 12Z TAFS SENT. NOT MANY CHANGES. SOME SNOW TO THE SE. ALSO A PATCH OF SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE OFFICE. WILL BE WATCHING THE RADAR CLOSELY...CONCERN TO HOW FAR WEST RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD MOVE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ON THE COLD FRONT AND TRACKS NE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING. FURTHER WEST...STILL EXPECTING MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT JST AND BFD TODAY. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD IMPROVE BY THIS EVENING...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW. OUTLOOK... SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. MON-TUE...SNOW/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY W MTNS. && .HYDROLOGY... ICE EFFECTS AT MARIETTA WILL CONTINUE FOR QUITE A WHILE. BUT FLOWS ARE NOT VERY HIGH. THE LOCAL STREAMS WILL START TO COME DOWN SOME...BUT SHOW DAILY AFTN BUMPS UP AS RESIDUAL SNOW MELTS WITH AFTN TEMPS IN THE 40S EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHERE PATCHY SNOW LINGERS IN THE SE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION...AS MORE RAIN AND SNOW NOT THAT FAR AWAY. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LA CORTE AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN HYDROLOGY...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
624 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP AND JUST OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY TODAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ITS WAKE AND BRINGS FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL START THE NEW WORKWEEK AS A COMPLEX AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO STREAK UP OVER MY SERN ZONES...WITH FLURRIES FARTHER WEST OVER THE LAURELS AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HRRR AND RAP SHOW THE SNOW SHUTTING OFF QUICKLY BY MID MORNING. QPF ON THE ORDER OF A TRACE TO UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH REMAINS THE CONSENSUS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO ACCUMULATIONS IF THERE ARE ANY WILL PROBABLY BE CONFINED TO GRASSY SURFACES. FARTHER WEST A SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS HELPING TRIGGER SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THAT ARE GAINING A LITTLE PUSH FROM SOME OROGRAPHIC FORCING. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME LINGERING FLURRIES OVER THE USUAL HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NW...AS THE UPPER HEIGHTS REBOUND RAPIDLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL BREAK OVER OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF INTO THE 20S REGION-WIDE TONIGHT...WHICH FOR EARLY FEBRUARY WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... SATURDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH THE MOST CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AREAS...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES. HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...RISING INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN IS MADE TO EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW FORECAST TO DROP STEEPLY SE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS TIME THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF DO NOT GENERATE ANY KIND OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW/HEAVY PRECIP THREAT...BUT THE ENSEMBLE PLUMES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH ANYWHERE FROM AN INCH OR TWO TO A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW. ECENS SHOWS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...FAVORING THE HIGHER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. THE MAIN THING IS THERE IS NO INDICATION OF A SINGLE ROBUST SURFACE LOW THAT WOULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT STORMINESS...YET. THE SEEMINGLY MOST CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING OVER THE EASTERN US...DRIVING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION...AND A CHUNK OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR DOWN INTO THE GULF STATES. THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE NORMAL LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO LATE WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT KEEP US ON THE CHILLY AND UNSETTLED SIDE. && .AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 09Z TAFS SENT. NOT MANY CHANGES. SOME SNOW TO THE SE. WILL BE WATCHING THE RADAR CLOSELY...CONCERN TO HOW FAR WEST RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD MOVE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ON THE COLD FRONT AND TRACKS NE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN ACROSS CENTRAL PA THRU 06Z WILL BE MVFR STRATOCU DECK/SCT FLURRIES AT KBFD/KJST ASSOC WITH WEAK OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVR THE MTNS. FOCUS LATE TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TOWARD SE PA...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRES LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST. ALL THE LATEST MDL DATA SUGGESTS KLNS WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOW /IFR/ VSBYS AT KLNS BTWN 08Z-12Z FRIDAY. LATEST HRRR OUTPUT AS OF 03Z SUGGESTS THE SIG VIS REDUCTIONS MAY REMAIN JUST EAST OF KLNS...BUT TOO CLOSE TO CALL ATTM. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST MVFR CONDS AT KBFD AND KJST FRIDAY MORNING WITH OCNL -SHSN. LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR PRODUCTS SUGGEST OCNL IFR CONDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT KBFD/KJST EARLY FRIDAY AM...AS BLYR MOISTURE/-SHSN INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE W. ANY SNOW AT KLNS SHOULD END BY ARND 11Z. FOCUS WILL THEN BE ON LINGERING STRATOCU ACROSS THE W MTNS. MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EVEN KBFD/KJST WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDS BY AFTN...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. OUTLOOK... SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. MON-TUE...SNOW/LOW CIGS POSS...MAINLY W MTNS. && .HYDROLOGY... ICE EFFECTS AT MARIETTA WILL CONTINUE FOR QUITE A WHILE. BUT FLOWS ARE NOT VERY HIGH. THE LOCAL STREAMS WILL START TO COME DOWN SOME...BUT SHOW DAILY AFTN BUMPS UP AS RESIDUAL SNOW MELTS WITH AFTN TEMPS IN THE 40S EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHERE PATCHY SNOW LINGERS IN THE SE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION...AS MORE RAIN AND SNOW NOT THAT FAR AWAY. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LA CORTE AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1231 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW PRESSURE TO TRAVEL ALONG AFTER SUNRISE. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL DELIVER A MIX OF RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/... 1 PM UPDATE... CONTINUE TO REVISE SNOW MAP AS STRONG BANDING CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS BOTH ERN MA AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MA AT THIS TIME. HAVE REPORTS ALREADY EXCEEDING 8 INCHES IN SEVERAL SPOTS AS A RESULT OF THESE BANDS. RATIOS USED LIKELY TOO LOW IS PART OF THE ISSUE AS THE FEW REPORTS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENTS ARE ON TARGET WITH QPF. OTHERWISE...TIMING STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR ENDING LATER TODAY/THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED ADVISORIES FOR CAPE/VINEYARD AND ALSO HOISTED WIND ADVISORIES THERE AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS THE LOW PRES MAKES IT/S CLOSEST PASS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... *** WESTWARD TREND IN THE SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED FOR WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES TO BE EXPANDED *** BUSY NIGHT AS WE CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE LATEST DATA AND TRENDS FOR THIS UPCOMING WINTER SYSTEM. PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENS. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO BE CLOSE TO AN INCH. BIGGEST TREND BETWEEN THE 12Z AND 00Z RUNS IS THAT THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD TREND. HEAVY PRECIP SWATH OVER NJ AND EASTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND IMPACT WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. BECAUSE OF THIS UPSTREAM TREND...HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE PIONEER VALLEY. ANY PRECIP THAT IS OR WILL FALL WILL BE SNOW ACROSS THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERKS AS MESONET SITES ARE ALREADY REPORTING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP GUIDANCE. ASIDE FROM THE EXPANSION...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF EITHER SNOW...OR A WINTRY MIX ACROSS CENTRAL MASS AND INTO CT. THIS IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE LATEST DUAL-POL DATA. HIGHER REFLECTIVITY ECHOES ARE STARTING TO MOVE INTO WINDHAM COUNTY...WHICH WILL BE EITHER A MIX OR JUST SNOW AS 925 MB TEMPS ARE ALREADY BELOW 32F PER SPC MESO DATA. ANTICIPATE THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO BE FAIRLY BUSY WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND SURFACE LOW NEARS. P-TYPE AND CHANGE OVER TIMING... MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS COASTAL LOW MOVES ALONG STALLED COLD FRONT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE PRECIP SHIED HAS EXPANDED FARTHER WESTWARD THEN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...WHICH IS THE LATEST TREND IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 06Z NAM. CHANGE OVER HAS ALREADY STARTED TO OCCUR ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE FALLING. ANTICIPATE THE CHANGE OVER TO MAKE IT TO SOUTHEASTERN MASS INCLUDING BOS AND PVD CLOSER TO THE 6-8 AM HOUR. THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER AS CAA WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO REACH THEM. FEEL IT WILL BE CLOSER TO 10AM-NOON. ALTHOUGH SLEET MAY MIX IN DURING THE TRANSITION...BELIEVE MANY LOCATIONS WILL SWITCH FROM RAIN TO STRAIGHT SNOW. QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS... HAVE ADJUSTED THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. GENERALLY BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING WILL GET AT LEAST A SLOPPY 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HILLS WITHIN TOLLAND...WINDHAM...WORCESTER AND PROVIDENCE COUNTIES. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR QPF. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES. BELIEVE WE HAVE A GOOD TREND GOING AT THIS TIME. SOME AREAS IN QUESTION WHICH COULD BE UPGRADED WITHIN THE WARNING IS SOUTHERN BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES. HOWEVER THESE LOCATIONS MAY BE STUCK IN THE MIX LONGER KEEPING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOW. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERK TO AN ADV AS SNOW IS ALREADY STARTING TO FALL PER WEBCAMS. THE PIONEER AND CONNECTICUT VALLEY MAY SEE LOWER AMOUNTS AS WELL THANKS TO SHADOWING. SO EVEN THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS ARE OUT...THERE STILL COULD BE SOME CHANGES THANKS TO SOME MESOSCALE ISSUES. IMPACTS... DUE TO THE FACT THAT SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOW WITH THIS STORM...AND BANDING WITH 1+ INCH/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. THIS WILL BE EXACERBATED BY A LLJ AROUND 40 KT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME OF IT/S MOMENTUM. THEREFORE...THE COMBINATION OF WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND HEAVY WET SNOW MAY INCREASE THE RISK. THE OTHER PRIMARY IMPACT IS THAT THE CHANGE-OVER AND HEAVIEST PRECIP/SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF THE AM COMMUTE...WITH LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND SLIPPERY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. && .SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... THE MORE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IN RELATION TO PREVIOUS PROGS SUGGEST A SLOWER END. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE DRYING THE LOW LEVELS...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW LEFTOVER MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MA BEFORE THINGS END BY EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY DROP OFF DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY CAUSE ANY UNTREATED ROADS TO BE SLIPPERY FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... BIG PICTURE... LONGWAVE SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WEST AND DIGGING TROUGH IN THE EAST...POINTING TO WARM TREND WEST AND COOLING EAST. SMALLER SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW A THREE-RING CIRCUS OF SHORTWAVES EITHER AFFECTING OR WITH POTENTIAL TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH TWO SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHERE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES COULD OCCUR. MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS ALSO AGREE ON TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS...ONE WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY AND A SECOND CLOSE TO SHORE TUESDAY. BUT ALL SHOW DIFFERING SCENARIOS FOR HOW THESE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BEST CONFIDENCE IN HANDLING THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEMS IS WITH THE GEFS /ENSEMBLES/ THE DAILIES... TONIGHT-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA. EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND OVER FRESH SNOW COVER MAY LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT THAN INDICATED BY GUIDANCE. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...WE BUMPED GUIDANCE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES. ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING SOUTHWEST...THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD REACH AROUND 950 MB. TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. SUNDAY...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE NORTHEAST USA. THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO LOSE THE FRONT IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS SUGGEST JUST A FEW CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING BY SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S. THE COLDER AIR ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING MIN TEMPS ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...GENERATES A SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST USA COAST. THIS COASTAL LOW THEN MOVES NORTHEAST AND PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF OUR AREA. NORMALLY THIS PATH WOULD KEEP PCPN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WE COULD DEVELOP SUFFICIENT MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE TO BRING CLOUDS AND PCPN MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...BUT WITH POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW MIX NEAR THE COAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ASHORE FROM THE PACIFIC TONIGHT AND CROSSES TO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DIGS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND LEADS TO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW THEN MOVES UP THE COAST TUESDAY AND PASSES OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. EACH MODEL HANDLES THIS COASTAL LOW DIFFERENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS LOW. CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES FEET-DRY ON THE PACIFIC COAST. BEST DYNAMICS UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET MOVES OFF TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...SO BEST CHANCE OF PCPN SHOULD BE ON TUESDAY THEN DIMINISH TO SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. PTYPE AGAIN FAVORS SNOW INLAND AND SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE COAST. UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL FROM THE MIDWEST LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THROUGH THURSDAY MAINTAINING SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...TIMING MAY BE OFF A BIT. AREAS OF LIFR/IFR IN HEAVY SNOW AND LOW CIGS CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 20Z EVERYWHERE...THEN GIVE WAY TO VFR FROM W-E THROUGH 00Z. STRONG N WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT OVER THE INTERIOR AND 30-40 KT ALONG THE CAPE/ISLAND. TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. ANY UNTREATED AND WET RUNWAYS WILL FREEZE AS TEMPERATURES DROP RAPIDLY. WIND GUSTS REMAIN N-NW BUT DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TOMORROW...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OR LESS. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...TIMING MAY BE OFF A BIT. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS....TIMING MAY BE OFF A BIT. OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TODAY... NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND 35-45 KT ON THE EASTERN WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SEAS BECOME HIGH...MAINLY 8-10 FT ON THE SE OCEAN WATERS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN/FOG ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO SNOW NEAR THE EASTERN SHORELINES. OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE... TONIGHT...DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS EARLY AND POPPING UNDER 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS AS HIGH AS 14 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT TO 5-7 FEET BY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST WATERS DURING THE NIGHT. SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY BELOW 25 KNOTS BUT GUSTING NEAR 25 KNOTS EAST OF CAPE ANN SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS DIMINISH SATURDAY BUT THEN RETURN TO NEAR 5 FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MONDAY-TUESDAY...NORTH WINDS TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST NEAR 30 KNOTS EACH DAY. DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL BEHAVIOR OF THE TWO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS PASSING BY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO REACH 35-40 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR GALES AT THIS TIME...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. WINDS TURN BACK TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ002>004. MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ019>021. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ004>007-009-011>018-026. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ002-003-008-010. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022>024. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ022. RI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ007. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ001>006. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237- 250-254>256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230- 236-251. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN NEAR TERM...DOODY SHORT TERM...DUNTEN LONG TERM...WTB AVIATION...WTB/DOODY MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1220 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1030 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 AFTER A COLD MORNING...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TOWARDS THE 40 DEGREE MARK TODAY WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. SO DID A QUICK REFRESH TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1007 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 HAVE UPDATED THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST TO REMOVE RAIN FOR ALL OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DURING THIS TIME SHOW THAT PRECIP WILL BE SNOW DUE TO COMPLETE LACK OF ANY WARM AIR ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPS BEING NEAR FREEZING OR COLDER. ALSO TRIED TO DO SOME INITIAL FINE TUNING OF PRECIP TIMING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. UPDATE ISSUED AT 800 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO MAINLY FINE TUNE THE T AND TD GRIDS THROUGH THE MORNING BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS HIGH IS CLEARING THE SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING... ALSO BRINGING AN END TO SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST. CLEAR SKIES SPREADING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...WILL SUPPORT AN EXTRA DROP OFF IN TEMPS FOR THE VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN. AS IT STANDS NOW...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 20S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION TO THE UPPER 20S ON THE RIDGES AND LOCATIONS STILL UNDER THE CLOUDS ALONG AND NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND 20 DEGREES ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...CURRENTLY. THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL TAKE ANOTHER BOTTOMING OUT SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. THIS LEAVES EAST KENTUCKY IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING TODAY AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT... MAINLY SOUTHERN STREAM...TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WAVE BECOMES MORE ISOLATED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS IT DIVES TO THE GULF COAST AND STARTS TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS SHOW LIMITED SEPARATION FROM EACH OTHER AT THIS TIME STEP WITH THE GFS THE WEAKEST AND CANADIAN A CLOSE MATCH TO THE ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WITH ONLY A WEAK STREAM OF ENERGY SET TO DRIFT OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND WAS USED FOR THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST... WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR NEAR TERM DETAILS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER THE CONTROL...A TERM USED LOOSELY...OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. IN FACT...GIVEN SOME LIMITED ENERGY ALOFT AND THE WAVE PASSING TO THE SOUTH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FOR THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THOUGH HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR NOW. WHAT WE WILL HAVE IS MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH READINGS REACHING THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR TODAY...GOOD SUNSHINE...AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...WILL ERASE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S MOST PLACES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND FOR T/TD/WIND GRIDS TODAY BEFORE FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH SATURDAY. DID ADJUST THE MIN TEMPS A TAD THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT FOR MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW...SINGLE DIGITS...IN LINE WITH MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH THEY MAY BE A HAIR TOO LOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 347 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD START OFF QUIETLY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO END THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY TOPPING AROUND 50 ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE STEADILY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY EVENING...AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BARRELS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE FIRST PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MIX WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. THE PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW COLD AIR TO SPILL QUICKLY INTO THE REGION. THIS CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES CAUSE THE RAIN TO TRANSITION QUICKLY TO A RAIN SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW BY LATE MONDAY EVENING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND FREEZING. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PERIODS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN RAIN MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER. THE LAST BIT OF SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO DRY AND COLD. THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGHS ON THAT DAY ARE ONLY FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS ON THAT DAY FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE COLDEST NIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE MERCURY WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS BOTH NIGHTS. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE LOWS IN THE 20S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 120 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JVM SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...JVM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
258 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 258 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016 A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM AN EQUALLY WEAK SFC LOW CENTER IN NW MN...SWWD INTO EASTERN SD AT 20Z. AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...A PARTLY SUNNY SKY COVERED THE FORECAST AREA. A PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT WAS DRIFTING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. IT HAS PROVIDED SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES IN THIS AREA. THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW ONTARIO BY THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN MN. NAM/GFS/ECMWF QPF FIELDS ARE WAY OVERDONE...BUT EVEN SHORT TERM HIRES MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE ARROWHEAD BEFORE 00Z. HAVE SOME SMALL POPS IN PLACE OVER THE ARROWHEAD. THE UPPER TROF MOVES INTO EASTERN WI BY 06Z AS THE SFC LOW REACHES NE LAKE SUPERIOR AND A SFC TROF REACHES NW WI. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AS WELL AS IN NORTH CENTRAL WI. SOME FLURRIES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN NW WI AND HAVE A MENTION. THE SFC TROF EXITS NW WI BY 12Z SATURDAY AS WELL AS THE UPPER TROF. LINGERED SOME SMALL POPS IN NORTH CENTRAL WI AS THESE FEATURES PASS BY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. ON SATURDAY...THE NAM IS WAY TOO FAST WITH THE DEVELOPMENT/SPREADING OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO REACH INTO NE MN BY 18Z. PREFER THE GFS20/ECMWF WHICH KEEP THE AREA FREE OF SNOW BEFORE 18Z. THIS IS DUE TO A FAIRLY DRY COLUMN. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A DIGGING UPPER TROF REACHES THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE WARM FRONT TO BRING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. MAINTAINED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST POPS/WEATHER AS A RESULT. LITTLE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE...AND WILL BE WRUNG OUT. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 258 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016 A CANADIAN CLIPPER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING ITS TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PCPN...SO INCREASED PCPN CHANCES. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SO THE INITIAL SNOW WILL BE LIMITED NORTH AND EAST OF THE WARM FRONT...AFFECTING ONLY THE ARROWHEAD. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY...AND SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THE GUNFLINT TRAIL AND GRAND PORTAGE AREA COULD GET 1 TO 2 INCHES SATURDAY EVENING...AND THEN THE WHOLE NORTHLAND SHOULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSING OF THE LOW. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW SUNDAY...AND WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS AND FALLING SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO PERIODS OF LOW VISIBILITY...PARTICULARLY IN MORE OPEN AREAS. ARCTIC AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTHLAND MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING CLIPPER. THERE COULD BE LINGERING SNOW FLURRIES...AND THE COLD NW FLOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OVER NW WISCONSIN. CLEARER SKIES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILD INTO THE REGION. THE CONTINUED NORTHERLY ARCTIC FLOW COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OVER NW WISCONSIN WELL THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER 30S...BUT THERE WILL BE A 15 TO 20 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER. THE TEMPERATURES DROP A LITTLE MORE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE RECOVERY THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST COMING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016 SUBTLE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TODAY...FROM WEST TO EAST...AND LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VERY LIGHT SNOW. THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE CONCERNING CEILINGS THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SOME MODELS...SUCH AS THE HRRR AND NAM MOS...ARE INDICATE IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND GFS MOS CLEARS THE LOW CEILINGS OUT OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. SINCE THE GFS SEEMS TO BE DOING BETTER WITH THE LATEST TRENDS...MY BETS ARE WITH THE CLEARER GFS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 16 30 26 31 / 10 10 20 60 INL 12 28 25 31 / 10 30 50 70 BRD 14 34 29 33 / 0 10 10 60 HYR 16 32 26 35 / 10 10 10 60 ASX 19 32 27 35 / 10 10 20 50 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GSF LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1155 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016 UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. UPDATE ISSUED AT 910 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016 LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR/RAP/DLH WRF ALL POINT TO MINIMAL SNOW TODAY. BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS/SATELLITE HAVE LOWERED POPS CONSIDERABLY THIS MORNING. DID PLACE SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING. CLOUDS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF THINNING/HOLES OPENING UP WHICH WOULD AFFECT POPS/QPF/WEATHER. MADE SOME OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 306 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016 ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TODAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES EAST TODAY INTO MINNESOTA. WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA AND THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED ONE INCH AMOUNTS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE TWENTIES. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE MOST LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...THEN IT WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE FORCING MOVES EAST. LOWS WILL DROP TO 10 TO 18 DEGREES. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA ON SATURDAY AND BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF MAINLY FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO 0C TO +1C OVER THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE SO THERE WILL NOT BE VERY MUCH MIXING. DESPITE THE LIMITING MIXING...WE DO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO 30 TO 34 OVER THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...BUT ONLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S NORTHEAST OF THE WARM FRONT IN THE ARROWHEAD. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 306 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016 NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING AT MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FAVORS FREQUENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORMS ON THE HORIZON. TEMPERATURES MILD SUNDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THEN COLDER THROUGH THE WEEK AS ARCTIC AIR JUST TO THE NORTH ATTEMPTS TO BREAK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING NOT AS COLD FOR MID-WEEK AS PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD ANTICIPATED...BUT THE ARCTIC AIR FINALLY BREAKS THROUGH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS IS NOT TO SAY TEMPS WILL BE WARM BY ANY MEANS...STILL EXPECTING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MID WEEK AND THEN COLDER LATE WEEK...BUT JUST NOT AS COLD AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE ARE STILL VARIOUS DIFFERENCES INTO HOW THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT THESE DIFFERENCES WILL NOT MAKE MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE WHEN IT COMES TO SENSIBLE WEATHER. AHEAD OF THE LOW A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...COMING TO A STOP OVER THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHICH WILL RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THIS REGION AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW. COMBINED WITH EASTERLY WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THIS COULD RESULT IN LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...THOUGH LAKE/AIR TEMP DIFFERENCE WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE. OVERNIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE AROUND ONE TO THREE INCHES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. SUNDAY WILL BE WARM WITH SOME LOCATIONS WELL INTO THE MID 30S...MAINLY IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE A POSSIBLE DRY SLOT OVER THE REGION MAY DELAY PRECIP UNTIL THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME PRECIP MAY BEGIN OR CHANGE OVER TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SUCH AS IN THE SAINT CROIX RIVER VALLEY INTO THE HAYWARD LAKES REGION...BUT THINK THAT ONCE THE BETTER LARGE-SCALE LIFT ARRIVES PRECIP QUICKLY CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW. MOST SNOWFALL LOOKS TO FALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD TOTALS IN THE ONE TO THREE INCH RANGE...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS WINDS TURN NORTHEASTERLY WITH THE PASSING OF THE SFC LOW FROM NW MN TO EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE LOW WITH LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE FRESH SNOW. SNOW ENDS WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. THROUGH THE MID WEEK COLD AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH RESULTING IN POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST TIMES OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH LOWS FALLING TO 10 BELOW ZERO TO NEAR ZERO. /NOTE THAT THIS FORECAST PERIOD GOES THROUGH THURSDAY AND EVEN COLDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT./ ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH FOR ANY PARTICULAR TIME...WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHT IN ANY CASE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016 SUBTLE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TODAY...FROM WEST TO EAST...AND LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VERY LIGHT SNOW. THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE CONCERNING CEILINGS THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SOME MODELS...SUCH AS THE HRRR AND NAM MOS...ARE INDICATE IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND GFS MOS CLEARS THE LOW CEILINGS OUT OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. SINCE THE GFS SEEMS TO BE DOING BETTER WITH THE LATEST TRENDS...MY BETS ARE WITH THE CLEARER GFS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 25 15 29 21 / 50 60 10 40 INL 24 10 26 21 / 20 20 30 50 BRD 26 12 33 24 / 20 20 10 30 HYR 24 17 31 22 / 50 60 10 30 ASX 27 19 31 23 / 50 60 10 30 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI SHORT TERM...MELDE LONG TERM...JJM AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
325 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 325 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2016 A pair of vort maxes will approach the region tonight, spreading extensive mid/high cloudiness over the area. The northern vort max is the weaker of the pair and eventually phases with the southern disturbance, although there is some model disagreement regarding how quickly this occurs. Latest runs of the RAP point to a quicker phasing than shown by the local WRF or NAM, and the quicker timing looks reasonable based on recent satellite imagery and PV analyses. Quicker phasing means that the northern disturbance won`t produce much lift over the CWA and therefore there is much less chance of flurries or sprinkles given the already limited moisture. Overnight lows should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday due to extensive cloud cover and weak WAA at low levels behind a retreating surface high pressure center. Kanofsky .LONG TERM: (Saturday through Next Friday) Issued at 325 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2016 An upper level TROF will swing thru our region dry on Saturday, with forcing not strong enough and a column not moist enough, as the main storm center passes well to our south, and should produce nothing more than clouds that will decrease as the day wears on. Otherwise, SW winds left in its wake will result in an above average temp day, with maxes from the mid 40s to mid 50s favored, or at or above the higher MAV MOS. A more direct hit from a decently strong upper level disturbance will occur late Sunday and into Sunday night, but will still be fighting a largely dry column. Have added low PoPs for most of our region for light rain for Sunday afternoon, and areas south and east of STL metro heading into Sunday evening. This initial disturbance Sunday will also correspond to the leading edge of a brief shot of Arctic air that will begin later Sunday night and continue into Monday night, resulting in scattered snow showers over much of the region. Accums will be hard to nail down this far out and due to the nature of the pcpn, but could see spotty accums up to an inch from this event. Needless to say, the leading edge of the Arctic airmass will also be accompanied by strong gusty northwest winds, clouds, and stagnant daytime temps on Monday as CAA remains strong thru the day. Models are less clear, but it appears a second clipper-like system may drop down for the Tuesday night or Wednesday timeframe, but the signal is not enough, especially for this type of system, to place mentionable PoPs in the forecast just yet. Otherwise, NW upper flow continues thru all of next week and will leave the door open for additional cold air intrusions, one of which is slated to drop down Thursday or Friday. Overall a period of mainly below average temps separated briefly by periods of above average temps, with little in the way of precipitation. TES && .AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 1108 AM CST Fri Feb 5 2016 VFR through the period with increasing mid/high clouds. Initially lgt/var winds will become southwesterly on Saturday morning due to the approach and passage of a surface trough after 06/12z. Kanofsky && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1218 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 942 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016 12z NAM initialized a stronger vorticity max over south central NE than shown in earlier progs. RAP is a bit weaker. Both models track the feature east this morning/afternoon. Area of light snow tied to this feature will be moving into a rather dry airmass as noted by the dirt-dry sub-cloud region on the 12z TOP raob. Latest short-range models are more bullish in keeping this area of snow intact, albeit diminishing it as it moves into far northwest MO. NAM also showing moderate moist isentropic ascent on the 280-285K surfaces. Will add chance PoPs to far northwest MO for this afternoon with slight chances spreading across the northern two tier of counties. Will monitor radar trends and if the snow holds together better than anticipated will look to raise PoPs. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 347 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016 Very little change to the going forecast philosophy, with overall quiet weather on the horizon. Two shortwave troughs will be featured over the next few days, but with limited moisture, little in the way of sensible weather will be noted for the area. Mid/high clouds will steadily increase during the day with readings warming into the middle 30s to middle 40s. The first disturbance arrives overnight and besides the increase in cloud cover, a few sprinkles cannot be completely ruled out. Downglide quickly clears out cloud cover as system departs on Saturday, with a continued mild weekend on tap for the weekend. The second disturbance arrives Sunday/Monday, with slightly more notable weather. A strengthening pressure gradient will allow for gusty northwesterly winds on Sunday. Enough dynamics and low-level moisture may allow for light precipitation in the form of snow over the eastern two-thirds of the CWA. Much colder air will advect into the area as the pattern becomes much more amplified heading into early next week before readings gradually moderate to near normal levels by the middle of the work week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 1214 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016 Southern edge of area of snow over southeast NE/western IA continues to erode as it moves east. Think this trend will continue as the band moves across far northwest and north central MO this afternoon. Little if any snow accumulation expected. Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue as a weak wind shift line passes across western MO late this evening. Could see some sprinkles/flurries near this boundary but again no accumulations expected. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MJ DISCUSSION...Blair AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
330 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016 THERE ARE SEVERAL SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS...LIGHT SNOW ENDING THIS EVENING...POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT AND THEN STRONG WINDS WITH LIGHT SNOW/BLOWING SNOW SUNDAY/MONDAY. AMPLIFIED MID TROPOSPHERIC PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS. TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NOW WILL PUSH EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND SNOW WILL END. RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA BUT WEAKEN THROUGH SATURDAY. BY LATE SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA BACK INTO WYOMING. THE PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AGAIN SUNDAY AS A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND THAT SHORTWAVE INTENSIFIES AND FORMS A CLOSED LOW OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. TONIGHT...WARM FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA BUT WINDS WILL DROP OFF. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG. EXPERIMENTAL HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN HINTING AT DENSE FOG FORMATION FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS...STARTING NORTH OF THE PLATTE RIVER PRIOR TO 06Z. THAT MODEL THEN EXPANDS THE FOG AND KEEPS IT INTO MID MORNING SATURDAY. THIS ALL DEPENDS ON CLOUD COVER. THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO BRING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME AT LEAST SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DECOUPLING OF WINDS OVER DEEPER SNOW COVER. SURFACE WINDS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST ARE NOT ALL THAT FAVORABLE FOR FOG LOCALLY...BUT AIRMASS BEHIND THIS TROUGH/WIND SHIFT IS FAIRLY MOIST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE VERY TRICKY...WITH SNOW AND FOG POTENTIAL. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS. SATURDAY...CLOUDS AND FOG MAY LINGER IN THE MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN IOWA AND EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND SHOULD GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IF CLOUDS DECREASE AS EXPECTED AND WE CAN GET SOME SUNSHINE...HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SHOULD BE REALIZED. AREAS WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA SHOULD REACH INTO THE MID 40S. LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE (POSSIBLY INTO WIND ADVISORY CATEGORY) AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LAG A BIT. WILL KEEP SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW. BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE SNOW WILL STAY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS IN OUR AREA...WITH SOME MOISTURE WRAPPING INTO THE AREA. LAPSE RATES STEEPEN BELOW 750 IN GFS AND NAM FCST SOUNDINGS SO THE IDEA OF SNOW SHOWERS STILL SEEMS PRUDENT. SNOW CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW COULD BECOME PROBLEMATIC SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL MONITOR THIS FOR LATER FORECASTS AND MAY NEED TO HIT HARDER WITH SOME TYPE OF ADVISORY LATER. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016 LITTLE OR NO PCPN IS EXPECTED IN THIS PERIOD...AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. STRONG 500 MB RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA TUESDAY AND OUR AREA WILL BE IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW. THAT RIDGE SHOULD DEAMPLIFY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN BECOMING MORE ZONAL. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016 VARIABLE CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS A BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS AREA. A SECONDARY WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SOME CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG SETTING UP OVERNIGHT. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MILLER LONG TERM...MILLER AVIATION...KERN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1104 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016 .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. EXCEPTIONS INCLUDE LOCALIZED AREAS ACROSS THE NE CORNER OF THE STATE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO SNOWFALL. THE OTHER BEING ACROSS NW AREAS LATE TONIGHT. BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...AN AREA OF LOW CIGS DEVELOPED TO THE EAST OF FMN THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME INDICATION ANOTHER AREA OF LOW CIGS WOULD DEVELOP AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT TOWARDS FMN LATE TONIGHT. WILL MONITOR THAT TREND CLOSELY. USED VCFG IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME. GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KT AT TCC EARLY/MID AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING. 50 && .PREV DISCUSSION...315 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016... .SYNOPSIS... A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TODAY...BRINGING A REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR...GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND SOME MEAGER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND WILL THEN DOMINATE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND STEERS STORMS AWAY FROM NEW MEXICO THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH SEASONAL VALUES OR ABOVE BY NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY. && .DISCUSSION... ANOTHER DAY...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND EAST...BUT OVERALL NOT ANTICIPATING SPEEDS WILL REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE THERE COULD BE SOME MOSTLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND ALONG THE FAR NORTHEAST...SUCH AS RATON PASS/SIERRA GRANDE WHERE THEY COULD SEE POSSIBLY AN INCH OR TWO...BUT NOT THINKING IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ANY WINTER TYPE HIGHLIGHTS. HRRR DOES SUGGEST SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AS WELL AS THE ECMWF WHICH PAINTS ISOLATED MEASURABLE AMOUNTS IN THE EAST CENTRAL...BOTH WHERE CURRENT GRIDS HAVE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT POPS TODAY. SO LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TRENDING TOWARDS GREATER AREAL COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT PLUMMET AGAIN FOR THE NORTHERN MTS...BUT GUIDANCE DOESN/T INDICATE IT WILL BE QUITE AS COLD AS THURSDAY MORNING LOWS WERE. ANOTHER DRY WAVE SENDS A FRONT INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY BUT COOLING EFFECTS MORE LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THEREAFTER...DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND WILL DOMINATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES FINALLY REBOUND TO NORMAL OR ABOVE BY TUESDAY OVERALL. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT. LATE NEXT WEEK...THE GFS ALLOWS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE DRAWN INTO NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH STRETCHED THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THE ECMWF DEPICTS MORE OF A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM...DRIER AND COOLER. && .FIRE WEATHER... ONE QUICK-MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWUNG THROUGH NORTHERN NM EARLIER LAST EVENING...AND A SECOND ONE IS QUICKLY FOLLOWING ON ITS HEELS AND WILL CROSS OVER NORTHEAST NM BY LATE MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS ALSO DROPPING SOUTH INTO NM...AND THIS WILL BRING A TEMPORARY CESSATION TO THE WARMING TREND. SOME LOWER-BASED CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTH CENTRAL NM...GRADUALLY EXTENDING INTO NORTHEASTERN NM BY MID DAY. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF INCHES FORESEEN NEAR THE RATON RIDGE/PASS. AS THE COLD FRONT SPILLS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA...SOME WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NM. IT WILL BE HERE WHERE VENTILATION RATES WILL BE BOOSTED...BUT ELSEWHERE EXPECT SMOKE DISPERSION RATES TO REMAIN IN THE POOR CATEGORY TODAY. AS THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS MORE WEST NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY...IT WILL RELAX AND BECOME MORE STABLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO RISING PRESSURE HEIGHTS AND CONSEQUENTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH SATURDAYS HIGHS RISING 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE TODAYS. THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NM WILL OBSERVE THE LARGEST GAINS WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS. STIFF SURFACE/20FT BREEZES WILL STILL TAKE SHAPE IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COME LOWER HUMIDITY. PATCHES OF CENTRAL NM AND MOST OF THE EASTERN ZONES WILL OBSERVE MINIMUM HUMIDITY OF 10-20 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE AREA OF STRONGER WINDS IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE JUXTAPOSED OVER ANY CRITICAL RH AREAS AT THIS TIME. POOR VENTILATION IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THEN THE FLOW RETURNS TO A MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL COMPONENT FROM THE NORTHWEST HOSTING YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT. THIS PERTURBATION SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF NM EARLY SUNDAY...BUT STILL THE NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF NM. ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SLIP INTO EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY SUNDAY...BUT THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOES NOT APPEAR TO DISRUPT THE FORECAST AREA FROM REACHING NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. AFTER SUNDAY...THE THEME FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE A DRY...TRANQUIL...AND WARMER PATTERN. VENTILATION RATES WILL SUFFER...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP WELL ABOVE NORMAL. 52 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
254 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... IN THE WAKE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTING THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SURFACE LOW WILL PASS BY THE CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1015 AM FRIDAY... THE EARLY MORNING RAIN/SNOW MIX HAS FIZZLED AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...WHICH IS NOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND 4000K FT IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SOME VERY SHALLOW INSTABILITY...PER RAP SOUNDINGS...COULD STILL RESULT IN A FEW RAIN DROPS EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR THROUGH NOON. HOWEVER...WITH THE MOISTURE STEADILY ERODING AND STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT...HAVE REMOVED REMAIN POPS. COLD ADVECTION AT 850MB IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO BETWEEN 925MB AND 850NMB SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 40S...A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. -SMITH WINDS DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES... AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST SHIFTS OVERHEAD. LOWS 23-29... COLDEST IN THE RURAL PIEDMONT AND WRN SANDHILLS. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY... THE WEEKEND WILL START OUT QUIET... ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE RISE... WITH PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE LATE SAT NIGHT IN THE FAR SE. INITIALLY DRY AND STABLE AIR OVER CENTRAL NC WILL LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE TO START SAT. THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO NE ACROSS NC EARLY SAT WILL NARROW FURTHER AND BE OVERTAKEN BY LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE BAHAMAS ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE... IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE APPROACH OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW DIVING DOWN THROUGH ERN CO/NM. AS THIS AMPLIFYING WAVE CROSSES THE GULF STATES/NRN GULF AND SOUTHEAST SAT/SAT NIGHT... THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN QUICKLY AND TRACK TO THE NE... STAYING FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE FOR CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER... A FEW MODELS SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ATLANTIC MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW TO SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP INTO OUR FAR SE CWA OVERNIGHT. THE LOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT DRY BELOW 5 000 FT... WHICH WOULD MAKE ANY PRECIP VERY LIGHT WITH ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT THIS PRECIP BEING MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW... AND THIS IS ALSO WHAT IS INDICATED BY THE TOP-DOWN METHODOLOGY... AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD SATURATION UP TO AND ABOVE -20C WITH A COLD COLUMN. WILL BRING IN SMALL POPS IN OUR SOUTHEAST SAT NIGHT BUT WITH MINIMAL QPF AND NO NOTABLE IMPACT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SAT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH SOME RECOVERY IN THICKNESSES. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 20S NW TO LOWER 30S SE. -GIH && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY... SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ONSHORE BRITISH COLUMBIA TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN RAPID AMPLIFICATION OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS IT DIGS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY AS AN UPPER LOW...ON THE HEELS OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE RESULTING LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MID-WEEK...OR UNTIL UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED THU/FRI. LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN ASSOC/W POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW MONDAY AFT/EVE. GIVEN SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND THE PRESENCE OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...NO PTYPE CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUE/WED IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG/PERSISTENT COLD ADVECTION AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS. FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT...I.E. UPPER TROUGH AXIS NEAR/OVER THE REGION AND WESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE LOW/MID LEVELS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD/SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION TUE AFTERNOON GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES/VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND OCCASIONAL DPVA ASSOC/W SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH /UPPER LOW/ OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION DEVELOPS WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF DPVA...AND EVEN IF CONVECTION WERE TO DEVELOP...A VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WOULD HAVE TO BE OVERCOME...THUS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. IF CONVECTION WERE TO DEVELOP...A SHALLOW ABOVE FREEZING LAYER IN THE LOWEST 500-1000 FT AGL WOULD SUGGEST RAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A RATE-DRIVEN CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS WOULD BE PRESENT. -VINCENT && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 1245 PM FRIDAY... NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE PREVAILING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME NEARLY CALM. VFR WILL CONTINUE. LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW PASSING BY THE CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY MAY BRING LIGHT PRECIP AND A PERIOD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FROM KFAY TO KRWI. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SUB- VFR CONDITIONS AND PATCHY PRECIP TO ALL SITES MON AFTERNOON INTO TUE. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/SMITH SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD LONG TERM...VINCENT AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1245 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... IN THE WAKE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTING THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SURFACE LOW WILL PASS BY THE CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1015 AM FRIDAY... THE EARLY MORNING RAIN/SNOW MIX HAS FIZZLED AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...WHICH IS NOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND 4000K FT IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SOME VERY SHALLOW INSTABILITY...PER RAP SOUNDINGS...COULD STILL RESULT IN A FEW RAIN DROPS EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR THROUGH NOON. HOWEVER...WITH THE MOISTURE STEADILY ERODING AND STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT...HAVE REMOVED REMAIN POPS. COLD ADVECTION AT 850MB IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO BETWEEN 925MB AND 850NMB SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 40S...A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. -SMITH WINDS DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES... AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST SHIFTS OVERHEAD. LOWS 23-29... COLDEST IN THE RURAL PIEDMONT AND WRN SANDHILLS. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY... THE WEEKEND WILL START OUT QUIET... ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE RISE... WITH PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE LATE SAT NIGHT IN THE FAR SE. INITIALLY DRY AND STABLE AIR OVER CENTRAL NC WILL LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE TO START SAT. THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO NE ACROSS NC EARLY SAT WILL NARROW FURTHER AND BE OVERTAKEN BY LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE BAHAMAS ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE... IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE APPROACH OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW DIVING DOWN THROUGH ERN CO/NM. AS THIS AMPLIFYING WAVE CROSSES THE GULF STATES/NRN GULF AND SOUTHEAST SAT/SAT NIGHT... THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN QUICKLY AND TRACK TO THE NE... STAYING FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE FOR CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER... A FEW MODELS SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ATLANTIC MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW TO SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP INTO OUR FAR SE CWA OVERNIGHT. THE LOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT DRY BELOW 5 000 FT... WHICH WOULD MAKE ANY PRECIP VERY LIGHT WITH ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT THIS PRECIP BEING MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW... AND THIS IS ALSO WHAT IS INDICATED BY THE TOP-DOWN METHODOLOGY... AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD SATURATION UP TO AND ABOVE -20C WITH A COLD COLUMN. WILL BRING IN SMALL POPS IN OUR SOUTHEAST SAT NIGHT BUT WITH MINIMAL QPF AND NO NOTABLE IMPACT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SAT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH SOME RECOVERY IN THICKNESSES. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 20S NW TO LOWER 30S SE. -GIH && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY... SUNDAYS PROMINENT WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS AND THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. WHILE MUCH OF THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OFF OF THE COAST...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TO CREEP INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF OUR CWA ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE STORM. AT THIS TIME MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN WITH POTENTIALLY SOME WET SNOW MIXED IN PER NOMOGRAM THICKNESSES. DRY LOW LEVELS MAY KEEP SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND FOR A WHILE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY EVENING AT THE LATEST. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM AT THIS TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 50 DEGREES WITH AN UNUSUAL TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION OF WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST AND COLDEST IN THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO GREATER CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE STORM. LOWS MONDAY MORNING NEAR FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS. MONDAY WILL BEGIN WITH A LULL BETWEEN THE EXITING COASTAL SYSTEM AND THE NEXT LARGE UNORGANIZED SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL USHER IN ARCTIC AIR FROM CANADA. TIMING OF THE WEAK FRONT THAT WILL SIGNAL THE ARRIVAL OF THIS COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY SO TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH WILL STILL MAKE IT TO THE LOW 50S WITH MID 40S IN THE TRIAD. AS THIS IS A CONTINENTAL AIRMASS...THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM AT ALL AND PW VALUES REMAIN BELOW A HALF OF AN INCH. THAT BEING SAID...THERE WILL STILL BE SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...BEGINNING MOST LIKELY AFTER 15Z ON MONDAY AS RAIN. ANYTHING THAT FALLS SHOULD REMAIN RAIN UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING WHEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO ALL SNOW AFTER 3Z TUESDAY AS NOMOGRAM THICKNESSES TANK. BY THIS TIME HOWEVER...MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA AND ANY SNOW SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE AT THIS TIME. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S NW TO LOW 30S SE. SOME INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY BUT OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE AS QPF VALUES REMAIN VERY LOW. EVENTUALLY THE VERY DRY AIR WILL TAKE OVER AND THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME THE MAIN STORY AS HIGHS TUESDAY ONLY MAKE THE LOW TO MID 40S AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT DIVE INTO THE MID 20S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES AND WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS. DESPITE THE COLD...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ON THURSDAY THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO FINALLY LIFT OUT AND TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE MID 40S. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 1245 PM FRIDAY... NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE PREVAILING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME NEARLY CALM. VFR WILL CONTINUE. LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW PASSING BY THE CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY MAY BRING LIGHT PRECIP AND A PERIOD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FROM KFAY TO KRWI. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SUB- VFR CONDITIONS AND PATCHY PRECIP TO ALL SITES MON AFTERNOON INTO TUE. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/SMITH SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD LONG TERM...ELLIS AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
300 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN ONTARIO. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC SATURDAY. SUNDAY A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. MONDAY THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS MICHIGAN AND INTO OHIO. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS ACROSS MICHIGAN AND INTO NORTHERN INDIANA IN AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH. THE NAM ALSO SHOWS A SHORT WAVE IN THE GENERAL AREA AS WELL. FOLLOWING 850MB MOISTURE WHICH IS A GOOD PROXY SO FAR...THIS MOISTURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL USE THE NAM12 850MB RH AS A STARTING TEMPLATE FOR SKY COVER GRIDS TONIGHT. THE HRRR BRINGS IN SOME PATCHY FLURRIES BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE DRY. WILL GO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF MAV TEMP GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... SATURDAY MORNING THE WEAK TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST IN THE MORNING AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH DROP TOWARD THE AREA. ALSO A SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS SERN CANADA NORTH OF THE REGION. BEST MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THIS SYSTEM SO AM EXPECTING AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 40. SATURDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD SEE WEAK WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT FROM THE CANADIAN LOW STALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES. SUNDAY ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN FROM SCNTRL CANADA. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND SHOULD BRING RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST TO BEGIN WITH BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL MOVE CHANCE POPS EAST AND INCREASE TO LIKELY WEST. HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... WINTER WILL BE RETURNING FOR NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR AREA WIDE SNOW SHOWERS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES. CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MONDAY MAY BE MARGINAL...AND WE MAY SEE A RA/SN MIX. IT WILL GET COLD ENOUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE CONFINED MORE TO THE SNOWBELT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW REORGANIZES ITSELF AROUND JAMES BAY. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WE START TO SEE SOME SPREAD IN THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH THE GFS THE COLDEST. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LAST BIT OF MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA WILL LIFT TO VFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BEYOND THAT EXPECTING ALL TAF SITES TO BE VFR THROUGH 18Z SAT. THERE WILL BE A WEAK TROUGH THAT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A MID CEILING BETWEEN BKN035 AND BKN050. TOL WOULD LIKELY HAVE THE ONLY REAL CHANCE AT AN MVFR CEILING FOR A TIME TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE UNDER 12 KNOTS AND GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AS A CLIPPER BRUSHES THE GREAT LAKES. BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN TO DECREASE IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM WESTERN SUPERIOR. THIS LOW WILL STALL AND REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO BE STRONG THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES. DURING THIS PERIOD 20 TO 25 KNOTS LOOK COMMON. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TK NEAR TERM...TK SHORT TERM...TK LONG TERM...OUDEMAN AVIATION...OUDEMAN MARINE...OUDEMAN