Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 02/04/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1001 AM PST TUE FEB 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...TWO WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE DISTRICT BETWEEN NOW AND MIDWEEK. THE FIRST WILL SPREAD LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA TODAY...AND THE SECOND WILL
DO SIMILARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A
WARMING TREND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:12 AM PST TUESDAY...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, MAINLY FROM THE SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD. GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL IS
OCCURRING WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT SHIFTS TOWARD THE SOUTH. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE COASTAL RANGES OF MONTEREY COUNTY.
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH
LATE MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THIS BOUNDARY SWEEPING THROUGH THE
REGION, TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE
OF SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO
UPPER 50S. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT TODAY AND
BECOME WEAK OFFSHORE TONIGHT. UPDATED SHORT-TERM FORECAST PACKAGE
HAS BEEN SENT OUT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST TUESDAY...CHILLY START TO
THE DAY FOR A PORTION OF OUR SOUTHERN CWA. CURRENTLY BOTH SALINAS
AND WATSONVILLE ARE AT 37. FOR SF BAY METRO REGION MOST LOCATIONS
ARE IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE WITH DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO STILL
IN THE UPPER 40S.
SATELLITE AND ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SYSTEM JUST OFF THE COAST THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA TODAY. KMUX RADAR HAS BEEN BACK UP SINCE
THE EVENING WHICH WILL GREATLY HELP TODAY WITH THE TIMING OF RAIN.
LATEST HRRR AND NAM BOTH BRING ACROSS THE NORTH BAY THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND DOWN TO SF BAY AREA STARTING AROUND SUNRISE. THE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS DOWN TO THE MONTEREY BAY BY LATE IN THE
MORNING. OVERALL, LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING FROM YESTERDAY WITH
MODELS CONTINUING TO DEPICT PW VALUES OF 0.60" TO 0.70" BY LATE IN
THE MORNING. PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE .1" TO .2" FOR MANY URBAN
LOCATIONS WITH LOCALLY MORE THAN 1/3" FOR COASTAL RANGES. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 4,000 TODAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME VERY
SMALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
AFTER A SHORT BREAK IN THE RAIN A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING BRINGS IT TO THE NORTH BAY LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN TO SF BAY REGION DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WILL LIKELY BE SOME RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON COMMUTE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE CLOSE TO TODAY`S
VALUES ALTHOUGH PW VALUES WILL BE JUST A BIT HIGHER, SO COULD SEE
A FEW LOCALLY SPOTS FAIRING A BIT BETTER. .
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE COAST STARTING ON THURSDAY
AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE MAIN INFLUENCE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN AND HAVE BEEN INDICATING THIS THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THEREFORE, A VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE WITH WIDESPREAD MID
60S TO LOWER 70S LIKELY FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT TUESDAY. ECMWF
GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 70S IN MONTEREY BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE PERFECT WEATHER FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 AM PST TUESDAY...AS THE 18Z TAFS BECOME
VALID IT WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL PERIOD WEATHER WISE. AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH RAIN WILL BE ENDING FROM N-S AND THE SAME
FOR LIFTING CIGS. GENERALLY SPEAKING...MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING. CONF IS MARGINAL AS LINGERING
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY LEAD TO MORE CLOUD COVER THIS
AFTERNOON. NEXT ROUND OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE LATE WEDNESDAY.
VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS THROUGH 18-19Z. THERE ARE ALREADY
SOME BLUE SKIES APPEARING ON THE CAMS AND VIS SATELLITE. CURRENT
TAFS WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH 20-21Z THEN A GRADUAL
WESTERLY SWITCH. MARGINAL MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS WITH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH 21Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 09:12 AM PST TUESDAY...LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS THEN INCREASE AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. A LONG
PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS/BELL
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM/CW
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
919 AM PST TUE FEB 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...TWO WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE DISTRICT BETWEEN NOW AND MIDWEEK. THE FIRST WILL SPREAD LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA TODAY...AND THE SECOND WILL
DO SIMILARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A
WARMING TREND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:12 AM PST TUESDAY...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, MAINLY FROM THE SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD. GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL IS
OCCURRING WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT SHIFTS TOWARD THE SOUTH. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE COASTAL RANGES OF MONTEREY COUNTY.
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH
LATE MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THIS BOUNDARY SWEEPING THROUGH THE
REGION, TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE
OF SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO
UPPER 50S. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT TODAY AND
BECOME WEAK OFFSHORE TONIGHT. UPDATED SHORT-TERM FORECAST PACKAGE
HAS BEEN SENT OUT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST TUESDAY...CHILLY START TO
THE DAY FOR A PORTION OF OUR SOUTHERN CWA. CURRENTLY BOTH SALINAS
AND WATSONVILLE ARE AT 37. FOR SF BAY METRO REGION MOST LOCATIONS
ARE IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE WITH DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO STILL
IN THE UPPER 40S.
SATELLITE AND ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SYSTEM JUST OFF THE COAST THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA TODAY. KMUX RADAR HAS BEEN BACK UP SINCE
THE EVENING WHICH WILL GREATLY HELP TODAY WITH THE TIMING OF RAIN.
LATEST HRRR AND NAM BOTH BRING ACROSS THE NORTH BAY THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND DOWN TO SF BAY AREA STARTING AROUND SUNRISE. THE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS DOWN TO THE MONTEREY BAY BY LATE IN THE
MORNING. OVERALL, LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING FROM YESTERDAY WITH
MODELS CONTINUING TO DEPICT PW VALUES OF 0.60" TO 0.70" BY LATE IN
THE MORNING. PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE .1" TO .2" FOR MANY URBAN
LOCATIONS WITH LOCALLY MORE THAN 1/3" FOR COASTAL RANGES. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 4,000 TODAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME VERY
SMALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
AFTER A SHORT BREAK IN THE RAIN A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING BRINGS IT TO THE NORTH BAY LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN TO SF BAY REGION DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WILL LIKELY BE SOME RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON COMMUTE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE CLOSE TO TODAY`S
VALUES ALTHOUGH PW VALUES WILL BE JUST A BIT HIGHER, SO COULD SEE
A FEW LOCALLY SPOTS FAIRING A BIT BETTER. .
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE COAST STARTING ON THURSDAY
AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE MAIN INFLUENCE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN AND HAVE BEEN INDICATING THIS THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THEREFORE, A VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE WITH WIDESPREAD MID
60S TO LOWER 70S LIKELY FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT TUESDAY. ECMWF
GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 70S IN MONTEREY BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE PERFECT WEATHER FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 03:59 AM PST TUESDAY... WEAK FRONT ADVANCING
FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING GRADUALLY DETERIORATING CIGS TO THE
REGION. CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN 2500 FT AGL OR ABOVE... WITH VFR
CIGS PREVAILING THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. BRIEF INTERMITTENT
MVFR POSBL THRU 20Z. VCSH POSBL IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE 10KT OR LESS.
VICINITY OF KSFO...CIGS WILL PREDOMINATELY BE 3000 FT AGL OR ABOVE
WITH BRIEF MVFR POSBL UNTIL 20Z. LIGHT RAIN POSBL BTWN 16Z AND
19Z. WINDS 10KT OR LESS.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CIGS WILL PREDOMINATELY BE 3000 FT
AGL OR ABOVE WITH BRIEF MVFR POSBL UNTIL 20Z. LIGHT RAIN POSBL
BTWN 16 AND 19Z. WINDS 10KT OR LESS.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 09:12 AM PST TUESDAY...LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS THEN INCREASE AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. A LONG
PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS/BELL
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: MM
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
352 AM PST TUE FEB 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...TWO WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE DISTRICT BETWEEN NOW AND MIDWEEK. THE FIRST WILL SPREAD LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA TODAY...AND THE SECOND WILL
DO SIMILARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A
WARMING TREND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST TUESDAY...CHILLY START TO THE DAY
FOR A PORTION OF OUR SOUTHERN CWA. CURRENTLY BOTH SALINAS AND
WATSONVILLE ARE AT 37. FOR SF BAY METRO REGION MOST LOCATIONS ARE
IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE WITH DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO STILL IN
THE UPPER 40S.
SATELLITE AND ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SYSTEM JUST OFF THE COAST THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA TODAY. KMUX RADAR HAS BEEN BACK UP SINCE
THE EVENING WHICH WILL GREATLY HELP TODAY WITH THE TIMING OF RAIN.
LATEST HRRR AND NAM BOTH BRING ACROSS THE NORTH BAY THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND DOWN TO SF BAY AREA STARTING AROUND SUNRISE. THE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS DOWN TO THE MONTEREY BAY BY LATE IN THE
MORNING. OVERALL, LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING FROM YESTERDAY WITH
MODELS CONTINUING TO DEPICT PW VALUES OF 0.60" TO 0.70" BY LATE IN
THE MORNING. PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE .1" TO .2" FOR MANY URBAN
LOCATIONS WITH LOCALLY MORE THAN 1/3" FOR COASTAL RANGES. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 4,000 TODAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME VERY
SMALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
AFTER A SHORT BREAK IN THE RAIN A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING BRINGS IT TO THE NORTH BAY LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN TO SF BAY REGION DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WILL LIKELY BE SOME RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON COMMUTE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE CLOSE TO TODAY`S
VALUES ALTHOUGH PW VALUES WILL BE JUST A BIT HIGHER, SO COULD SEE
A FEW LOCALLY SPOTS FAIRING A BIT BETTER. .
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE COAST STARTING ON THURSDAY
AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE MAIN INFLUENCE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN AND HAVE BEEN INDICATING THIS THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THEREFORE, A VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE WITH WIDESPREAD MID
60S TO LOWER 70S LIKELY FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT TUESDAY. ECMWF
GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 70S IN MONTEREY BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE PERFECT WEATHER FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 03:59 AM PST TUESDAY... WEAK FRONT ADVANCING
FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING GRADUALLY DETERIORATING CIGS TO THE
REGION. CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN 2500 FT AGL OR ABOVE... WITH VFR
CIGS PREVAILING THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. BRIEF INTERMITTENT
MVFR POSBL THRU 20Z. VCSH POSBL IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE 10KT OR LESS.
VICINITY OF KSFO...CIGS WILL PREDOMINATELY BE 3000 FT AGL OR ABOVE
WITH BRIEF MVFR POSBL UNTIL 20Z. LIGHT RAIN POSBL BTWN 16Z AND
19Z. WINDS 10KT OR LESS.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CIGS WILL PREDOMINATELY BE 3000 FT
AGL OR ABOVE WITH BRIEF MVFR POSBL UNTIL 20Z. LIGHT RAIN POSBL
BTWN 16 AND 19Z. WINDS 10KT OR LESS.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 03:47 AM PST TUESDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
WINDS THEN INCREASE AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. A LONG PERIOD
WESTERLY SWELL WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
305 AM PST TUE FEB 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...TWO WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE DISTRICT BETWEEN NOW AND MIDWEEK. THE FIRST WILL SPREAD LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA TODAY...AND THE SECOND WILL
DO SIMILARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A
WARMING TREND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST TUESDAY...CHILLY START TO THE DAY
FOR A PORTION OF OUR SOUTHERN CWA. CURRENTLY BOTH SALINAS AND
WATSONVILLE ARE AT 37. FOR SF BAY METRO REGION MOST LOCATIONS ARE
IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE WITH DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO STILL IN
THE UPPER 40S.
SATELLITE AND ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SYSTEM JUST OFF THE COAST THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA TODAY. KMUX RADAR HAS BEEN BACK UP SINCE
THE EVENING WHICH WILL GREATLY HELP TODAY WITH THE TIMING OF RAIN.
LATEST HRRR AND NAM BOTH BRING ACROSS THE NORTH BAY THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND DOWN TO SF BAY AREA STARTING AROUND SUNRISE. THE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS DOWN TO THE MONTEREY BAY BY LATE IN THE
MORNING. OVERALL, LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING FROM YESTERDAY WITH
MODELS CONTINUING TO DEPICT PW VALUES OF 0.60" TO 0.70" BY LATE IN
THE MORNING. PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE .1" TO .2" FOR MANY URBAN
LOCATIONS WITH LOCALLY MORE THAN 1/3" FOR COASTAL RANGES. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 4,000 TODAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME VERY
SMALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
AFTER A SHORT BREAK IN THE RAIN A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING BRINGS IT TO THE NORTH BAY LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN TO SF BAY REGION DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WILL LIKELY BE SOME RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON COMMUTE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE CLOSE TO TODAY`S
VALUES ALTHOUGH PW VALUES WILL BE JUST A BIT HIGHER, SO COULD SEE
A FEW LOCALLY SPOTS FAIRING A BIT BETTER. .
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE COAST STARTING ON THURSDAY
AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE MAIN INFLUENCE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN AND HAVE BEEN INDICATING THIS THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THEREFORE, A VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE WITH WIDESPREAD MID
60S TO LOWER 70S LIKELY FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT TUESDAY. ECMWF
GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 70S IN MONTEREY BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE PERFECT WEATHER FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:39 PM PST MONDAY...INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A SURFACE COOL FRONT
WILL QUICKLY SLIDE SE OVER THE AREA VERY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. VFR WILL LOWER TO MVFR TUESDAY MORNING. VCSH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
VICINITY OF KSFO...W-SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. LOW CONFIDENCE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO S-SE 19Z-21Z. MVFR CIGS TUESDAY. PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS BECOMING NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS
TUESDAY. PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 9:51 PM PST MONDAY...A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS VERY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND
BECOME GUSTY MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AHEAD OF ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM. A LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 3 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: CANEPA
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1032 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 817 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016
UPPER LOW EJECTING ONTO THE PLAINS THIS EVENING...WITH SURFACE AND
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR/JUST EAST OF PUEBLO. HAVE CONTEMPLATED
LOWERING WINTER STORM WARNINGS OVER INTERIOR VALLEYS AND PLAINS
SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER...THOUGH WITH HRRR CONTINUING TO
INSIST WRAP-AROUND SNOW BUILDING SOUTH ALONG I25 TO AT LEAST
WALSENBURG OVERNIGHT...WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT WARNING
CONFIGURATION FOR NOW. SNOW BANDS PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR. NORTH WINDS HAVE
BEGUN TO INCREASE MANY AREAS...AND EXPECT BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW
TO BECOME A PROBLEM ALONG AND EAST OF I25 OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016
...MORE SNOW ON THE WAY...PARTICULARLY FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA...
UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CO WITH
SFC LOW TAKING SHAPE DOWN AROUND KTAD. DRY SLOT AROUND THE SOUTHERN
SLIDE OF THE SYSTEM HAS WRAPPED NORTHWARD INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR...AND DEFORMATION BAND SNOW HAS STARTED
TO PUSH TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO NE CO. STILL SEEING
A FAIRLY DECENT FETCH OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND WEB CAMS HAVE SHOWN
SOME BOUTS OF HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES...BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN A
LITTLE TOO WARM FOR MUCH ACCUMULATION JUST YET. MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING AND DEEPENING THE UPPER LOW AS IT
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CO INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE
BY 06Z. AS THIS OCCURS...FORECAST AREA WILL COME UNDER THE COLDER
WRAP AROUND PORTION OF THE STORM WITH SNOW PIVOTING DOWN THE WEST
SIDE...BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TONIGHT. SO ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS APPEAR TO BE DONE WITH THIS
STORM...THERE IS STILL A SECOND WAVE TO GO...AND LATEST HRRR SHOWS
SNOW SPREADING BACK SOUTHWARD INTO THE KPUB AREA AND INTO LAS ANIMAS
AND BACA COUNTIES LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH THIS SECOND WAVE AND THAT IS WHEN THE
BLOWING SNOW WILL BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN. WINDS IN LATEST MODEL
SUITES APPEAR TO STAY JUST BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR A BLIZZARD
WARNING...BUT IT COULD COME CLOSE IN KIOWA COUNTY WHERE SOME THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS PROGGED TO OCCUR. WINDS LOOK A LITTLE TOO LIGHT IN
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY AT THIS POINT. BUT THIS WILL BEAR CLOSE
WATCHING THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE WRAP AROUND WILL BE THE MOST CHALLENGING PART
OF THIS FORECAST. LATEST HRRR DOES PULL H7 WINDS AROUND FROM THE NE
THIS EVENING...SUGGESTING ANOTHER ROUND OF UPSLOPE FOR THE WET
MOUNTAINS/WET MTN VALLEY/POSSIBLY NORTHERN SANGRES....BUT IT DOESN`T
APPEAR TO SPREAD FAR ENOUGH WEST TO AFFECT MORE THAN JUST THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. GIVEN THE VALLEY CENTER AND
WESTERN PORTIONS MAY MISS OUT ON THE SECOND WAVE OF THE STORM...HAVE
OPTED TO DOWNGRADE THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. WILL LEAVE ALL OTHER HIGHLIGHTS UNCHANGED. ANOTHER AREA
THAT MAY GET SLIGHTED FROM THIS EVENT WILL BE THE SOUTHERN SANGRES
AND THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR FROM WALSENBURG TO KTAD...BUT ITS
STILL TOO SOON TO SAY AT THIS POINT. THIS AREA MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 06Z BEFORE THEY GET THEIR NEXT CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATIONS. STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE SHOULD BEGIN TO SHADOW
SOUTHERN EL PASO AND PUEBLO COUNTIES AFTER 3 AM...WITH A DOWNWARD
TREND IN THE SNOWFALL FOR THESE AREAS TOWARDS EARLY MORNING.
WILL ALSO MAINTAIN THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS ALONG THE
CONTDVD...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE GREATEST SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN BETTER PROXIMITY TO THE DEFORMATION BAND. THERE
ARE STILL SOME INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS THOUGH SO WILL HANG ONTO THE HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOW. SUSPECT
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS MAY BE ABLE TO BE PARED OUT OF THE WARNINGS
TOWARDS 12Z TUES.
SYSTEM PULLS EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND SHOULD SEE SNOW TAPER
OFF ACROSS EASTERN AREAS IN THE MORNING...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT AT THIS
POINT...WITH GENERALLY ANOTHER 1 TO 4 IN THE AFTERNOON. -KT
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION AS SECONDARY ENERGY DIGS
ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON THE BACKSIDE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
WITH THAT SAID...SHOULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
PEAKS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING FLOW ALOFT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD TO REMAIN BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY SNOW COVERED AREAS OF THE PLAINS.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATING SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDING
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY AS MORE PACIFIC ENERGY DIGS ACROSS
THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE THIS
ENERGY MOVES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING
A PROGRESSIVE WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AS
ANOTHER GROUP OF MODELS ARE DIGGING THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. AT ANY RATE...SHOULD SEE INCREASING CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
FOR AREAS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
SATURDAY-MONDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIGGING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF A
DEVELOPING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS COULD BRING A
FEW MORE SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY...WITH DEEP
MERIDIONAL FLOW PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016
THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SE
CORNER OF THE STATE AS OF 1030 PM...WHILE THE SFC LOW WAS SITUATED
OVER HIGHWAY 50 BETWEEN CROWLEY AND OTERO COUNTIES. THIS
POSITIONING HAS PUBLISHED HIGH AMOUNTS OF SNOW FOR EL PASO
COUNTY...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO ATTAIN HALF AS MUCH. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLIP TO
THE EAST...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS FROM THE WRAPAROUND ARE
AFFECTING THE PLAINS...CREATING AREAS OF GREATLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES.
LOOK FOR IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR THE I25 CORRIDOR
FROM PUEBLO TO MONUMENT HILL...INCLUDING THE TAF SITES OF KPUB
AND KCOS THROUGH 18Z-20Z...THEN IMPROVING TO MVFR TO VFR.
THE SLV AND KALS HAS BEEN VFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AND IT IS
TRULY QUESTIONABLE WHETHER ANY OF THE WRAPAROUND WILL AFFECT THE
VALLEY. THEREFORE...SAVE FOR VCSH ALONG THE VALLEY EDGES...VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS ARE FORECAST. MOORE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058>068-
072>089-093>098.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ069>071-
099.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
932 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 923 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016
THE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SE CO THIS EVENING WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE ROTATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE NW QUADRANT OF
THE STORM. RADAR IS PICKING UP SOME MINOR BANDS OF SHOWERS
GENERALLY MOVING FROM N TO S. BELIEVE SNOWFALL WILL BE VERY SLOW
TO LEAVE THE ARE...BUT IT WILL LEAVE AS THE PRECIPITATION AREA GRADUALLY
SLIDES EAST WITH THE LOW CENTERS SLOW EASTERLY MOVEMENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016
AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE
WINTER STORM WILL BRING PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOWFALL TO MUCH OF WEST-
CENTRAL CO FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS EVENING. HAVE UPDATED THE
GRIDS AND FORECASTS FOR CATEGORICAL SNOWFALL UNTIL ABOUT 9 PM WHEN
THE HRRR AND HIRES SHOW IT MOVING EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016
OUR COMPLICATED STORM SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO EVOLVE. IT IS IN
THE PROCESS TO TRANSITIONING TO ITS NEXT PHASE AS THIS FORECAST
GOES TO PRESS. THE 500MB LOW PASSED OVER THE 4-CORNERS AROUND
MIDDAY TODAY AND WILL SHORTLY MOVE EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
AS A RESULT THE FLOW HAS BEEN TRANSITIONING FROM A SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION TO WEST-NORTH NEAR THE SURFACE...AND EASTERLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE. BY LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT A DEEP NORTH FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. AS A RESULT...THE BETTER SNOWFALL WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN
SLOPES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SNOWFALL HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE VALLEYS OF WESTERN UT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND OVER THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL VALLEYS OF WESTERN CO.
WHILE SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN MANY OF THESE AREAS OFF AND ON
THROUGH THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT...LITTLE TO NO
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED. SO HAVE DROPPED THE
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES FOR THESE ZONES. ON THE FLIP SIDE...THE
NORTHWEST CO VALLEYS HAVE YET TO SEE THEIR BEST SNOWFALL. EXPECT
THAT THESE ZONES WILL SEE BETTER ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MORE
FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS THAT HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS IN CO ZONES 1 AND 2 WILL OCCUR NORTH OF THE
TAVAPUTS PLATEAU...SOUTH OF RANGELY AND IN THE PICEANCE
BASIN...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ZONE 5 IN THE YAMPA AND
OAK CREEK AREA. THEREFORE EXTENDED THESE ADVISORIES.
ALL PRESENT HIGHLIGHTS ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON TUE...AND THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE FOR NOW IN THE DRIER NORTH FLOW. HOWEVER ANOTHER
COLD IMPULSE WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY...WITH A
-32C/500MB COLD CORE OVER NORTHWEST CO IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS
INDICATE THERE WILL BE AN UPTICK IN SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.
FOR NOW THE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS DO NOT SEEM TO WARRANT
EXTENDING ANY HIGHLIGHTS. BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
LINGERING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE...AND A MUCH HIGHER SNOW RATIO
MAY BE A CONCERN. COLD ADVECTION IN THE NORTH FLOW WILL RESULT IN
COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE.
CONDITIONS QUICKLY WIND DOWN TUE EVENING AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
ERODE. BY LATE TUE NIGHT ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED
TO SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS FROM NEAR ASPEN AND NORTHWARD.
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT DUE LESS CLOUDS
AND THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS APPEARS A DOMINANT RIDGE WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED ALONG THE LEFT COAST OF NOAM. THERE WILL STILL
BE PACIFIC WAVES PLOWING INTO THIS FEATURE BUT NOT BE ALLOWED TO
FORM A LARGER SYSTEM IN THE WEST. SO WE ARE LOOKING AT SEVERAL
PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE
PLAINS BUT FOR NOW NOTHING LOOKS OVERLY SIGNIFICANT. BELOW TO MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN PLACE UNDER THIS REGIME AS
WELL. THE FIRST WAVE...MORE APPARENT IN THE 1.5 PVU FIELD...WILL
ROTATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND JUST BRUSH OUR EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WANE AS WELL AS
INSTABILITY SO REALLY ONLY EXPECTED SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS TO THE HIGH PASSES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL SEE TRANSITORY RIDGING
FOLLOWED BY THE FIRST PASSING TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THIS STORM HAS BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING THE PAST FEW
RUNS AND BOTH THE EURO AND GFS ARE CLOSING A LOW OFF NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE CARRYING IN SOME
PACIFIC MOISTURE BUT ATTM IT APPEARS THE UPSTREAM MOUNTAIN RANGES
WILL GET THE MOST BENEFIT BEFORE IT GETS HERE. RIDGING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IS THEN FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROUGH...THIS ONE
FARTHER NORTH...GOING INTO SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH APPEARS TO BRING
MORE OF A COLD SHOT THEN PRECIPITATION. BEYOND THIS A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH WILL MEAN GENERALLY DRY
AND COLD WEATHER PERSISTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 923 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH PASSES WILL REMAIN OBSCURED THROUGH MUCH OF
TUE MORNING THEN CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE. WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL OVER MUCH OF WESTERN CO WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND
TUE MORNING. KRIL...KEGE...KASE...KTEX...KMTJ WILL ALL HAVE MVFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH INTERMITTENT IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
POSSIBLE DUE TO PASSING SNOW SHOWERS. FOG DEVELOPING IN VALLEYS
AFTER ABOUT 09Z MAY AFFECT FLIGHT OPERATIONS AS WELL. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE THROUGHOUT TUE AND TUE EVENING.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TUESDAY FOR COZ001-002-
004-005.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TUESDAY FOR COZ003-007>014-
017>020-023.
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ023-025.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ028.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CC
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...CC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
453 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT...AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION
TONIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM WELL ABOVE FREEZING WITH
PERIODS OF RAINFALL...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...INITIALLY AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY...AND THEN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AT
NIGHT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND STRONG GUSTS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ENDING...AS A COLDER AIR MASS BUILDS
IN FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 PM EST TUESDAY...
A 1028 HPA SFC ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON FROM SRN QUEBEC. THE SKIES HAVE CLEARED DUE
TO THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC HIGH. THE SYNOPTIC SET-
UP WILL BE THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES INITIALLY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF INTO THE M20S
TO M30S EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
WARM FRONT TO A POTENT STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.
THE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND SOME
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE WEST OR NORTHWEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY. THE NAM OR HRRR GUIDANCE IS THE SLOWEST BRINGING THE
INITIAL SURGE OF PCPN INTO THE REGION...WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER. TEMPS SHOULD BE ON THE RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
THE STRENGTHENING S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET. THE 925 HPA WINDS INCREASE
TO 30-40 KTS BTWN 09Z-12Z. WE ARE CONCERNED ABOUT SOME FUNNELING
OF THE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED GUSTS IN THE NARROW NORTH TO SOUTH
VALLEYS IN SRN HERKIMER COUNTY...AND HAVE BEGUN A WIND ADVISORY AT
5 AM THERE. S/SE WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 45-50
MPH ARE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL WIND ADVISORIES COMMENCE FURTHER EAST
FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THAT WILL
BE DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.
IN TERMS OF MIXED PCPN OR RAIN...AGAIN...THE ONSET MAY BE MORE
AFTER 7 AM FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. USING THE GFS
THERMAL PROFILES WITH A TOP-DOWN APPROACH...MOSTLY SNOW/SLEET
CHANGING TO RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE LATEST BUFFER SOUNDINGS...AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM SUPPORT A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW/SLEET
TO RAIN. WE DID LEAVE A CHANCE OF -FZRA BRIEFLY FOR HAMILTON...NRN
HERKIMER...AND NRN WARREN...BUT BASED ON THE GUIDANCE AND
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFO/S NO WSWS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT
THIS TIME. LOW TEMPS AGAIN WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND
30F NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION REGION...AND LOWER TO M30S FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WED TO 5 PM WED FOR SOUTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY...
...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WED TO 5 PM WED FOR SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON...EASTERN RENSSELAER...EASTERN COLUMBIA COUNTIES IN ERN
NY...BERKSHIRE CTY MA...AND BENNINGTON...AND WRN WINDHAM COUNTIES
IN SOUTHERN VT...
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE UNTIL THE LATE MORNING FOR THE
SRN DACKS...NRN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND SRN
VT...BUT THE LATEST THERMAL PROFILES INDICATES MAINLY SNOW/SLEET
CHANGING TO RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET. THE BIGGER ISSUES WILL BE
WINDS...AND A 12-HR WINDOW OF SOME MDT-HVY RAINFALL FOR MOST OF
THE FCST AREA. ANY SNOW OR SLEET ACCUMS WOULD A FEW TENTHS TO
POSSIBLY AN INCH.
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS ON THE 290K SFC AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT TO A STRONG CYCLONE MOVING FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO SE ONTARIO AND SRN QUEBEC. THE 925 WINDS CONTINUE TO
BE FROM THE SE TO S AT 30-45 KTS WITH THE H850 WINDS CRANKING UP
TO 55-70 KTS FROM THE S TO SW. PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE IS
TRANSPORTED INTO THE REGION FOR PERIODS OF RAIN...OCCASIONALLY
HEAVY AT TIMES. THE LATEST GEFS HAVE PWATS SURGING TO 3 TO 5 STD
DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. THE H850/H925 SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES ARE 3 TO
4 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL /+V-COMPONENT OF THE WIND/. H850 TEMPS
RISE TO +2 TO +3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. BASICALLY...A SOGGY DAY IS
ON TAP FOR THE FCST AREA WITH A HALF AN INCH TO PERHAPS AN INCH+
OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...BUT DUE TO THE RECENT DRY
SPELL...THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HYDRO DISCUSSION BELOW. SOME WIND GUSTS FROM
THE S/SE IN THE 45-50 MPH RANGE ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE RAIN
OVER THE N-CNTRL TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND WEST OF THE SRN
GREENS IN VT...AS WELL AS SRN HERKIMER COUNTY. IF THE RAINSHIELD
QUICKLY FILLS IN...THEN THE GUSTS MAY BE LESS. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW
A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION...WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT GUSTS IN THE NON-
ADVISORY AREA. THE SHOWALTER STABILITY INDICES STAY POSITIVE FOR
MOST OF THE DAY...EXCEPT CLOSE TO SRN DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD CTY
CTY ON THE NAM IN THE EVENING. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY BE
POSSIBLE...BUT WE AGREE WITH THE LATEST SPC DAY 2 TO LEAVE MENTION
OF THUNDER OUT FOR NOW. THE GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE RAIN MAY BEGIN TO TAPER ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE FCST AREA
TOWARDS 6 PM.
HIGHS TOMORROW WONT LIKELY REACH RECORD VALUES...BUT WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL BY 15 TO 20+ DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE M40S TO AROUND 50F
OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS...AND U40S TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS.
WED NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION...AS THE COLD
FRONT TO THE SYSTEM WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING. AGAIN...THE NAM
INDICATES A POCKET OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY SCRAPING THE SE PORTION
OF THE CWA. SCT SHOWERS WILL LINGER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY
WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING BACK TO 0C TO -7C FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION...SRN VT...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS NORTH AND WEST...AND 0C
TO TO +4C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE U30S TO
L30S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST...AND U20S TO M30S TO
THE NORTH AND WEST.
THU-THU NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THU WITH
SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. DEEP
MIXING AND DOWNSLOPING WILL STILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL BY 10 DEGS OR SO FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY SOUTH AND
EAST WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U40S. NORTH AND WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S TO L40S. THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS FINALLY MOVES THROUGH WITH A SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM
THE TN AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNEXCITING PERIOD...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...AND
AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK TO BRING SOME
POSSIBLE MEASURABLE SNOWFALL TO ALL OUR ZONES ON TUESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN MOSTLY THE 20S AND 30S...ALTHOUGH
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES MILDER WITH A WARM FRONT
PASSING TO THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND
20S...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN EAST OF THE SITES TONIGHT. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z/WED...WITH JUST
THICKENING HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...PRECIPITATION WILL
QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES BETWEEN ROUGHLY 13Z-16Z/WED. AT
KGFL...THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR REMAINING WHERE THE
PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS SOME SNOW OR A SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX
FOR A BRIEF TIME. ELSEWHERE...PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED.
CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MVFR RANGE SHORTLY AFTER THE ONSET
OF THE PRECIPITATION...WITH AREAS OF IFR POSSIBLE TOWARD
18Z/WED...ESP AT KGFL.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT AT KALB AND KPSF
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE POSSIBLE
EARLY. AT KGFL...WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT
5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE REMAINING LIGHT/VARIABLE AT KPOU.
FOR TONIGHT...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH TOWARD 12Z/WED AT 5-10 KT...AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT WITH SOME
STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z/WED...ESP AT KALB WHERE SOME GUSTS
COULD REACH 20 KT OR HIGHER.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BECOME PROBLEMATIC AFTER 07Z/WED...AS SFC
WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH AT LESS THAN 12 KT...WHILE
WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 30-40 KT OR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
THURSDAY TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY. A
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL
REGION...OTHERWISE RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR
IS USHERED BACK IN. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE RAIN COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF
RAINFALL. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 2 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...AND THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST
FACING SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS
OF VERMONT.
THE LATEST OFFICIAL NERFC FORECASTS FOR THE MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE
ONLY KAST BRIDGE IN THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND WILLIAMSTOWN IN
THE NRN BERKS BARELY EXCEEDING THEIR RESPECTIVE ALERT STAGES BY A
FEW INCHES. OVERALL SOME 1 TO 2.5 FOOT RISES ARE EXPECTED ON THE
MAIN STEM RIVERS...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES COMBINED WITH RUNOFF OCCURS. ADDED
EFFECTS OF SNOWMELT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL BE MITIGATED
DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS THE REGION.
BEHIND THIS STORM SYSTEM...PRECIP WILL END AND TEMPS WILL TURN
COLDER...ALLOWING THE WATER TO RECEDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. OVERALL...NO WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ054-061-
084.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ038.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013-014.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...IRL/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
809 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016
.UPDATE (REST OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...
01Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THIS EVENING. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE MID-
SECTION OF THE COUNTRY...BOUNDED ON BOTH SIDES BY AMPLIFIED
RIDGING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND PUSHING OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. WILL BE WAITING FOR A FINAL BATCH
OF ENERGY DURING THURSDAY TO ACCELERATE THE TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS
THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OVERNIGHT...AND CONTINUED SLOW PROGRESS
INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL FINALLY EXIT TO OUR EAST LATER THURSDAY/THURSDAY EVENING AS
THE SHORTWAVE MENTIONED ABOVE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
OVERNIGHT...LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
REGION AND SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF WILL VERY SLOWLY PROGRESS
TOWARD THE REGION. EXPECT TO SEE RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY GO UP IN
LEVY COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND THEN PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE NATURE COAST IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS VERY LATE DOWN TOWARD THE I-4 CORRIDOR...BUT MUCH OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY
FOR TAMPA BAY REGION EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD.
SEEMS PROGRESS OF THIS FRONT WILL BE QUITE SLOW THROUGH MUCH OF
THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING MORE QUICKLY OUT OF THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. COMBINATION OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND
BEST COMBINATION DEEP LAYER QG FORCING/LOW LEVEL FRONTAL FOCUS
SHOULD PROGRESS OUT OF THE NATURE COAST INTO THE I-4
CORRIDOR/SOUTHWARD DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL END MORE QUICKLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THURSDAY...AS BEST FORCING SHIFTS INTO
THE ATLANTIC...AND HAVE REMOVED ALL RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.
WINDS SHIFT NORTH AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT...USHERING IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR FRIDAY. THE CAA
AND TIGHT GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS
EXPANDING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT. MARINERS SHOULD ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
AND SEAS THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PRESENTLY FOR ALL TERMINALS AND SHOULD SEE THESE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR REMAINDER OF EVENING. STILL WATCH
THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY SEA FOG TO IMPACT KTPA/KPIE/KSRQ...HOWEVER
CHANCES AT MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING. MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO PESSIMISTIC
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...AND HAVE LIMITED RESTRICTIONS
TO LOW END MVFR WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH BRIEF IFR IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SEA FOG. BAND OR TWO OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY/THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT GENERAL
MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH WINDS SHIFTING WEST AND
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SHIFTS FURTHER INTO THE
ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND ENTERS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE
EASTERN GULF DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY...AND BE EAST OF
THE FORECAST WATERS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. PATCHY SEA FOG REMAINS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
WIDESPREAD DENSE SEA FOG IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY TO SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST WITH THE
FRONT THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH AND NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT AND QUICKLY INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS THURSDAY
EVENING ACROSS BOTH THE NEAR SHORE AND OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES.
TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH
CAUTIONARY LEVEL WINDS...HOWEVER ADVISORIES MAY BECOME NECESSARY
FOR THESE ZONES AS WELL AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 67 75 47 63 / 10 90 80 0
FMY 67 81 56 68 / 10 30 60 0
GIF 65 80 48 63 / 10 70 80 0
SRQ 67 77 51 65 / 10 60 70 0
BKV 65 75 43 62 / 10 100 80 0
SPG 67 75 50 62 / 10 80 80 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
COASTAL LEE-COASTAL SARASOTA.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
202 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN
STALL NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. COOLER AND MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND MAY
BRING A FEW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDLANDS...FROM SUMTER THROUGH
DENTSVILLE TO NEWBERRY EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE THIS AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER OVER THE NORTH MIDLANDS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WITH WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE
EVENING...BUT FOCUS LIKELY REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STILL IN PLACE AND DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE WEST.
THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN IN THE UPSTATE THROUGH
THIS EVENING WHICH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN KEEPING POPS LOW THIS
AFTERNOON.
A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED WITH READINGS NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY IN THE LOWER 60S UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...RANGING THROUGH THE 70S.
MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE AREA WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
UPPER 50S COMMON NORTH...WITH LOWER 60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...THROUGH SPREADING EAST TOWARD DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MOISTURE FLUX/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS LIKELY ONGOING DURING
THE MORNING...MAINLY ELEVATED. PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOUT 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...APPROACHING 1.80 INCHES BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE
IN THE DAY. MODELS SUGGEST WEAK CONVECTION EARLY WITH POSSIBLE
STRONGER CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. INSTABILITYMAY
BE A LIMITING FACTOR...WITH SURFACE BASED CAP POSSIBLE AND UPPER
FORCING LIMITED. BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRONG. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR FRONT BUT THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL AT
THIS TIME. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS. TEMPERATURES
WARM IN THE LOW 70S MOST AREAS WITH STRONG SOUTH LOW LEVEL
FLOW/RESULTING WARM ADVECTION. LIKELY BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS ABOVE 20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE
CWA...BUT SLOWING DOWN AS IT DOES. POPS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH
THE NIGHT ACROSS THE WEST...BUT WILL STILL HOLD ON TO CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS FROM WEST TO EAST DUE TO THE FRONT SLOWING DOWN.
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH THE FRONT STALLED OUT ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY...THERE SHOULD
STILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO PORTIONS OF THURSDAY NIGHT.
UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE FRIDAY EXPECT DRYING AND COOLER CONDITIONS...NEAR
OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY...AND WILL FORECAST LOW POPS LATE
IN THE PERIOD DUE TO POSSIBLE COASTAL STORM...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW
DUE TO LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF CAE/CUB WITH IFR CIGS
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. A STRONG 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. LLWS POSSIBLE 03/03Z
THROUGH 03/16Z. IFR CIGS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TAF SITES AFTER
00Z...AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL ALSO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED
SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO RESTRICTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES. IFR CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FORECAST
AFTER 12Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1023 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WILL BECOME
DIFFUSE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THEN STALL NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
A DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDLANDS...FROM SUMTER THROUGH
COLUMBIA TO SALUDA EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE THIS AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER OVER THE NORTH MIDLANDS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WITH WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT FOCUS LIKELY REMAINING WEST OF THE
AREA THROUGH WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STILL IN PLACE AND
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE WEST. THE HRRR KEEPS MOST OF THE RAIN IN
THE UPSTATE THROUGH THIS EVENING WHICH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN
KEEPING POPS LOW THROUGH THE DAY.
A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED WITH READINGS NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY IN THE LOWER 60S. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...IN THE 70S. WITH SUCH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
THROUGH THE AREA AND POSSIBILITY OF WEDGE EROSION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES IS LOW FOR THE NORTH
MIDLANDS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE AREA WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
UPPER 50S COMMON NORTH...WITH LOWER 60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND WILL BE JUST OFF TO THE WEST OF THE REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME QUITE MOIST THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH PW VALUES RISING TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES. A LOW-LEVEL
JET OF OVER 40 KNOTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
MODELS STILL INDICATING LIMITED INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET THE
SHEAR WILL BE HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A HIGH
SHEAR/LOW CAPE EVENT...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE ISOLATED STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS AND INCLUDE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT
WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A HIGHER CHANCE OF JUST SEEING BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL. DESPITE CLOUDS AND RAIN...STRONG WARM ADVECTION SUPPORTS
TEMPERATURES AROUND 70.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE
CWA...BUT SLOWING DOWN AS IT DOES. POPS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH
THE NIGHT ACROSS THE WEST...BUT WILL STILL HOLD ON TO CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS FROM WEST TO EAST DUE TO THE FRONT SLOWING DOWN.
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE FRONT STALLED OUT ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY...THERE SHOULD
STILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO PORTIONS OF THURSDAY NIGHT.
UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE FRIDAY EXPECT DRYING AND COOLER CONDITIONS...NEAR
OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY...AND WILL FORECAST LOW POPS LATE
IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FROM SSC TO CUB AND CAE. IFR CIGS AT
CAE/CUB EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR BY 16Z. VFR TO REMAIN AT
AGS/DNL/OGB THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE AREA. LOWERING CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS SHOW RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITIES
FOR MOST OF TONIGHT AND THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BUT BELIEVE THIS MAY
BE OVERDONE AS A 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE OVER THE AREA. HAVE
INCLUDED RAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITIES BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EVENING.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
647 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NEAR OR INTO THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING AND BECOME DIFFUSE. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND BE STALLED NEAR THE
COAST THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SHIFTING
EAST. A DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS JUST NORTH OF
THE NC/SC BORDER AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE. AREAS OF
DENSE FOG DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT IN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND CSRA BUT EXPECT MIXING SHOULD IMPROVE
VISIBILITIES BY LATE MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR AT 11Z SHOWS ISOLATED
WEAK RETURNS ALONG THE CSRA BUT EXPECT DRY MID-LEVEL AIR IS
PREVENTING PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND THIS MORNING. A
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT FOCUS LIKELY REMAINING WEST OF THE
AREA THROUGH WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STILL IN PLACE AND
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE WEST. THE HRRR KEEPS MOST OF THE RAIN IN
THE UPSTATE THROUGH THIS EVENING WHICH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN
KEEPING POPS LOW THROUGH THE DAY. WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING IS
EXPECTED TO SET UP NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TODAY WITH STRONG SURFACE
BASED INVERSION AND HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN
THE LOWER 60S. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...IN THE 70S. WITH SUCH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
THROUGH THE AREA AND POSSIBILITY OF WEDGE EROSION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES IS LOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
AREA WILL BE MAINLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. UPPER 50S COMMON NORTH...WITH LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
FOR WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND WILL BE JUST OFF TO THE WEST OF THE REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME QUITE MOIST THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH PW VALUES RISING TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES. A LOW-LEVEL
JET OF OVER 40 KNOTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
MODELS STILL INDICATING LIMITED INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET THE
SHEAR WILL BE HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A HIGH
SHEAR/LOW CAPE EVENT...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE ISOLATED STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS AND INCLUDE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT
WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A HIGHER CHANCE OF JUST SEEING BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL. DESPITE CLOUDS AND RAIN...STRONG WARM ADVECTION
SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES AROUND 70.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE
CWA...BUT SLOWING DOWN AS IT DOES. POPS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH
THE NIGHT ACROSS THE WEST...BUT WILL STILL HOLD ON TO CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS FROM WEST TO EAST DUE TO THE FRONT SLOWING DOWN.
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE FRONT STALLED OUT ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY...THERE SHOULD
STILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO PORTIONS OF THURSDAY NIGHT.
UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE FRIDAY EXPECT DRYING AND COOLER CONDITIONS...NEAR
OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY...AND WILL FORECAST LOW POPS LATE
IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIP SOUTH THIS MORNING BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAF
SITES. MAIN CONCERN REMAINS FOG AND STRATUS THROUGH MID MORNING.
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE
FLUCTUATED QUITE A BIT THROUGH THE MORNING SO HAVE HANDLED USING A
TEMPO GROUP. EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO RETURN TO VFR BY 14Z BUT LOW
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AS EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE AREA. LOWERING CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS SHOW RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITIES
FOR MOST OF TONIGHT AND THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BUT BELIEVE THIS MAY
BE OVERDONE AS A 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE OVER THE AREA.
HAVE INCLUDED RAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WHICH SHOULD LEAD
TO RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITIES BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EVENING.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
233 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
Surface map at 20Z/2 pm showed strong 993 mb low pressure along the
eastern KS/NE border with an occluding front extending through
northern MO into southern IL. Another boundary/warm front was just
south of Peoria and just north of BMI with some fog along and north
of this boundary. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms were
over central IL at mid afternoon mainly east of a Galesburg to St
Louis line and tracking NNE. A narrow band of heavier rains with
some thunder was along I-55 from Springfield to Bloomington.
Meanwhile a dry slot with clearing skies was over central and
southern MO and moving northeast toward SW IL.
Temps ranged from 37F at Galesburg and Lacon where east winds
persisted to 57F along highway 50 at Flora, Lawrenceville and Mount
Carmel airports where se winds were veering SSE. Pressure gradient
has weakened a bit during the day across central IL so ESE winds not
quite as strong ranging from 10-20 mph and gusts of 20-30 mph at mid
afternoon.
The HRRR model has been doing fairly well with convection so far
today and leaned on this model going into this evening. It has the
showers and isolated thunderstorms ending over western CWA late this
afternoon and in eastern IL during early/mid evening with most areas
dry by 9 or 10 pm. SPC still have slight risk of severe storms this
afternoon southeast of Terre Haute to Flora line where 15% risk of
damaging wind gusts and 5% risk of tornadoes and large hail. Better
threat of severe storms is over more unstable airmass in far
southeast IL into KY and sw IN from I-64 south.
Low pressure to track northeast to near Dubuque by 09Z/3 am and into
southeast WI by sunrise Wed. A strong short wave/trof to push into
the IL river valley between 09-12Z Wed (3-6 am Wed) and have slight
chances of light rain or light snow later tonight. Lows late tonight
to range from mid 30s over the IL river valley (33F at Galesburg) to
the lower 40s near the Wabash river (42F at Lawrenceville). SE winds
to turn SW by overnight and range from 8-16 mph overall tonight.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
Tomorrow, the low will be pushing through the Great Lakes region
with a trailing sfc trough that will rotate through northern IL.
This sfc trough will also coincide with the 500mb trough that will
mover through the area. The combination of these two features will
bring a slight chance of light snow or rain to northwestern parts of
the CWA Wed morning. By afternoon all pcpn will have moved off to
the northeast, out of the CWA. Brief high pressure will move through
the area after this weather system moves through, along with the
pattern changing to a long wave trough pattern. This trough pattern
will bring another sfc trough through the area Thursday night, but
there will be a severe lack of moisture, so no pcpn is expected.
Then dry weather will be expected through the rest of the week and
into the the weekend. Temps will hover around normal through the
rest of the week and then will warm to above normal levels for the
weekend.
At the end of the weekend and the beginning of next week a northwest
flow pattern will setup over the area and looks like it may hang
around for an extended period. This northwest flow will allow a
series of clippers to move southeast through the Great Lakes area,
Sunday night through Tuesday. For now, will just keep the slight
chance of pcpn that the blended forecast has. Once the clippers
begin to move through, colder air will be allowed to pour into the
area and bring temps back to below normal.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
Strong low pressure of 993 mb along the eastern KS/NE border will
lift ne into central IA by midnight/06z tonight and into southeast
WI by sunrise Wed, and to northern lower MI by 18Z/noon Wed. A
band of showers and possible thunderstorms over the IL river
valley will spread ne across central/eastern IL next few hours and
then diminish late this afternoon/early evening from west to east
as dry slot works in. Have ceilings below 1k ft and vsbys 1-3
miles with this convection this afternoon over central IL. Low
clouds to scatter out with dry slow from west to east during
00Z-03Z time frame this evening. MVFR ceilings to return from the
west with wrap around between 09-13Z along. Brunt of light snow
should stay nw of central IL overnight into Wed morning but
carried VCSH at BMI and PIA which have better chance of light snow
showers. SE winds 15-25 kts and gusts 25-35 kts to veer sw and
diminish to 10-15 kts late today and have gusts of 20-25 kts late
tonight or Wed morning.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1146 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO DELAY ONSET OF PRECIPITATION A BIT
TONIGHT AS HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SLOWER START TO
THE PRECIP WITH IT TAKING A BIT LONGER TO REACH SATURATION.
ADDITIONALLY HAVE A PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW VISIBILITIES AND DENSE
FOG ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS
AREA IS EXPANDING WESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. HAVE ISSUED AN SPS RIGHT NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR A POTENTIAL DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF THE AREA CONTINUES TO
EXPAND. LATEST HRRR MODEL INDICATES IT COULD PERSIST INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AND EXPAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. HAVE
INSERTED A GREATER MENTION OF FOG INTO THE GRIDS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR FOR A POTENTIAL HEADLINE AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 409 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS SQUARELY ON TIMING AND IMPACTS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE IMPENDING WINTER STORM. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THE LARGE NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH EMERGING IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. IN RESPONSE...SFC CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES TO
INTENSIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH MAX SFC PRESSURE FALLS OF 6-
MB/3HR NOTED OVER KS/OK. ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE...MRMS RADAR MOSAIC AND OBSERVATIONS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE ALL THE MEASURABLE PCPN REMAINING OVER NE/KS AS
OF THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS EVENING THROUGH 10PM...SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT A MAJORITY OF THE EVENING SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS MODEL
TIME SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS /E.G. 850MB/. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW E/W BAND OF PRECIPITATION
LIFTING NWD ACROSS AREA ALONG THE LEADING SURGE OF ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. HOWEVER...ANY PRECIP /LIKELY A RAIN/SNOW MIX/ WITHIN THIS
BAND SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIGHT...WITH ONLY MINOR SNOW ACCUMS.
TONIGHT AFTER 10 PM...IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. COMBINATION OF VERY
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...AND LOWER STATIC
STABILITY SHOULD YIELD ARE LARGE SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
TOWARDS 12Z TUE AS WELL DUE TO A PLUME OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO 100-200 J/KG OF MUCAPE. PORTIONS OF FAR
SOUTHERN IOWA WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS A PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG ADIABATIC
ASCENT...AND WET BULB EFFECTS IN THE PBL SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY
QUICK CHANGEOVER TO SNOW EXCEPT ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 409 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
PLENTY TO DISCUSS WITH ALL EYES STILL FOCUSED ON IMPENDING WINTER
STORM. LONG WAVE TROUGH IN QUESTION IS STILL ONLY MOVING THROUGH THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA BUT MID LEVEL FORCING EFFECTS ARE ALREADY
APPROACHING THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH MAINLY VIRGA FOR NOW. THIS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD INTO IA AT PERIOD ONSET AND MATURE COMBINING WITH
IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE NOW FORMING FROM KS INTO MO. THETA-E
ADVECTION...FRONTOGENETIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING ARE ALL VERY
STRONG AND IMPRESSIVELY PHASED EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT SOME
CONCERN IS THAT MUCH OF THIS LIFT IS BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE /DGZ/...WHICH IS NOT THAT DEEP ANYWAYS...AND MAY LEAD TO
LOWER RATIOS. HOWEVER CONVECTIVE SNOW IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH
UPRIGHT CONVECTION OVERWHELMING ANYTHING THAT MAY BE SLANTWISE/CSI
AS MOST MODELS ARE DEPICTING TOKEN MUCAPES. CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS ALL REFLECT THIS AS WELL WITH SHOWERY 40-50 DBZ ECHOES IN
SNOW. THUS 1-2 INCH/HOUR RATES ARE QUITE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHERN
INTO CENTRAL IA AROUND THE MORNING COMMUTE. EXAMINATION OF NAM
CONVECTIVE PRECIP FIELDS SUPPORTS THIS AS WELL...EVEN BRINGING
SPOTTY AMOUNTS TOWARD THE MN BORDER. HAVE EVEN ADDED FLAT OUR
THUNDERSTORM WORDING SE.
WELL ADVERTISED DRY SLOT HAS BECOME EVEN MORE PROMINENT THIS MORNING
AND LOOKS TO DIMINISH PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. THERE COULD VERY WELL BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TOO AS THE DRY SLOT...RAIN/SNOW LINE
LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. ADEQUATE LIFT MAY STILL PHASE WITH
A DECENT MOISTURE DEPTH...ALTHOUGH NOT DEEP AND COOL ENOUGH TO ADD
ICE INTRODUCTION. HOWEVER FARTHER NORTH THE DGZ DEEPENS SOMEWHAT AND
BETTER PHASES WITH THE MAX OMEGA AND SHOULD RESULT IN VERY HEAVY
SNOW ACROSS THE NW THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EVENING AS
THE DEFORMATION ZONE LINGERS AND PIVOTS OVER THESE LOCATIONS.
ALTHOUGH DIFFICULT TO INJECT INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT THE
OPERATIONAL NAM AND COMPANION NMM CORES DEVELOP WHAT LOOKS TO BE
CONVECTIVE PRECIP JUST NW OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK EARLY TUE
EVENING...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A HEAVY BURST OF UNDETERMINED WINTRY
PRECIP BEING RIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE PRECIP TYPE TRANSITION
LINE. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCH WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY INTO TUE.
TRUE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MAY BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL THROUGH THE EVENT
WITH 1/4SM VISIBILITIES AND 35 MPH GUSTS NOT COUPLED FOR EXTENDED
PERIODS AS ONE WIND SURGE MOVES THROUGH TUE...AND THEN SWINGS BACK
THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT. MOST MODELS DO NOT SHOW TOO DEEP OF MIXING
SO GENERALLY KEPT MAX WIND GUSTS 35-40 MPH. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS DO
INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING THAT...AND MAY OCCUR
LOCALLY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE TO INJECT INTO THE FORECAST ON
A WIDESPREAD BASIS AS OF YET.
WHAT THIS ALL AMOUNTS TO FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST IS LITTLE
CHANGE FOR SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNING WITH AMOUNTS
LOWERED SOMEWHAT IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING STRIPE...INCLUDING THE
DES MOINES METRO AREA. BLIZZARD WARNING 8-12...WINTER STORM WARNING
4-9...AND A TIER OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GENERALLY 2-4.
SOME MINOR BLOWING SNOW MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY AND INACTIVE WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. DRY NW FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
THE NEXT ITERATION OF WRN CONUS LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO END THE
WEEKEND. A SHORT WAVE DROPS THROUGH THU BUT IS MOISTURE
STARVED...AND THERE COULD BE SOME TOKEN LIGHT SNOW WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION SURGE MON BUT CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME. THE BIGGEST SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED
WILL LIKELY BE COLDER TEMPERATURES...WHICH ARE MAINLY JUST BEYOND
THE VALID PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...02/06Z
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
SOME FOG TO LINGER AT KMCW AND KALO WITH VSBYS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WINDS PICK UP. PRECIPITATION TO
OVERSPREAD THE CWA TOWARD SUNRISE...WITH VSBYS QUICKLY DROPPING IN
SNOW AND BLSN AS WINDS PICK UP. PRECIP TO CHANGE TO RAIN AT
KOTM...WITH A LULL IN THE PRECIP AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN TOWARD THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CIGS AND VSBYS TO REMAIN LOW IN FOG AND LOW
STRATUS. OTHERWISE SNOW TO GET GOING AGAIN IN THE EVENING TUESDAY.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
AUDUBON-BOONE-CASS-DALLAS-GUTHRIE-MADISON-POLK.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR CLARKE-JASPER-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR BLACK HAWK-BREMER-
BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HANCOCK-HARDIN-KOSSUTH-
PALO ALTO-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
CERRO GORDO-EMMET-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-
PALO ALTO-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-GRUNDY-HARDIN-MARSHALL-STORY.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR CALHOUN-CARROLL-
CRAWFORD-GREENE-POCAHONTAS-SAC-WEBSTER.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BEERENDS
SHORT TERM...FOWLE
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...BEERENDS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
350 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND TAKING A NEGATIVE TILT AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES. THE STRONG CIRCULATION IS
EVIDENT BASED ON VIS/IR SATELLITE DATA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. RADAR TRENDS SHOW A SMALL BAND OF
SNOWFALL CONTINUING TO BRING LIGHT SNOW FOR SOME PORTIONS OF EASTERN
COLORADO AND EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS...MAINLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...RADAR REFLECTIVITIES APPEAR TO BE TRENDING
DOWNWARD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
IN THE NEAR TERM UP TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE WINTER STORM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND NEW SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE TO LESSEN.
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON COULD REACH UP TO AN
INCH...BUT LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW COULD OCCUR ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER
UP TO 2 INCHES. RAP MODEL THETA LAPSE RATES/NEGATIVE EPV VALUES
INDICATE AN AREA OF MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH SOME FRONTOGENESIS PRESENT ALONG THE SAME
AXIS AS THE CURRENT RADAR TREND WITH THE SNOW BAND POSITIONED NEAR
THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. A SNOW BAND MOVING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80 ALONG HIGHWAY 283 COULD ALSO BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW UP TO AN
INCH FOR NORTON AND HILL CITY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE LOW
CENTER MOVES EAST ENOUGH TO END THE SNOW THREAT.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS IS THE
BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY THREAT. STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OF 16-18 MB HAS BROUGHT STRONG WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AT TIMES...AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES
NOT HAVE THIS GRADIENT LESSENING FOR THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT
MST (1 AM CST) TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES...DESPITE THERE BEING NO
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. UNLESS
ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY...TRAVEL IS NOT ADVISED.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD STABILIZE AFTER MIDNIGHT MST (1 AM
CST) TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY END THE BLOWING SNOW AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY THREAT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION FROM NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN BETWEEN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND THE MIDDLE TEENS. COLD TEMPERATURES IN
COMBINATION WITH WIND GUSTS WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 10 ABOVE
TO 10 BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016
STRONG UPPER LOW TRANSITIONS EAST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LARGE SCALE RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE
WESTERN US RESULTING IN A SHARP N-NW FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN MAY SUPPORT QUICK SHOTS OF
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. OVERALL CHANCES OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THESE PERIODS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH A
PREDOMINANTLY DRY FORECAST. THIS IS DUE TO EITHER DEEPER DRY AIR
MASS BETWEEN CLIPPERS OR LACK OF CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS.
TEMPERATURES ARE PARTICULARLY TRICKY AS THIS PATTERN WOULD NORMALLY
SUPPORT A TREND TOWARDS SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER WITH THE
ONGOING SNOW EVENT AND AT LEAST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA
RECEIVING 10" OR MORE OF SNOW HIGH TEMPERATURES IN PARTICULAR ARE
LIKELY GOING TO BE LOWER THAN MODELS INDICATE. I TRENDED ALL HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN AND UNDERCUT ALL GUIDANCE THROUGH THESE PERIODS.
SNOW WILL ALSO AID IN RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE NIGHT...AND
ASSUMING WINDS REMAIN LIGHT (TO PREVENT LOW LEVEL MIXING) MODELS MAY
HAVE A WARM BIAS ON LOWS.
REGARDING WIND CHILLS WED NIGHT/THU MORNING...THE AIR MASS AND
ORIENTATION OF THE WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT MIGHT ACTUALLY LEAD TO MORE
MIXING WHICH COULD OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF SNOW/CLEARING SKIES AND
RESULTING WIND CHILLS MAY NOT ACTUALLY REACH -15F (ADVISORY). IT IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR -10 TO -20F WIND CHILLS...BUT I THINK THIS
MAY BE A LOCALIZED THREAT. WITH ONGOING HAZARDS THERE ARE NO CURRENT
PLANS FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016
FOR KGLD AND KMCK...MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE
THROUGH 5Z OR SO AS OUR WINTER STORM CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST
BRINGING A SLOW DECREASE IN THE WINDS AND SLOWLY IMPROVING
VISIBILITIES. FROM 6Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD EXPECT WINDS
TO CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10KTS WITH ONLY SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ001-013-027>029-041-042.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ002>004-
014>016.
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COZ090>092.
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ080-081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
240 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND TAKING A NEGATIVE TILT AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES. THE STRONG CIRCULATION IS
EVIDENT BASED ON VIS/IR SATELLITE DATA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. RADAR TRENDS SHOW A SMALL BAND OF
SNOWFALL CONTINUING TO BRING LIGHT SNOW FOR SOME PORTIONS OF EASTERN
COLORADO AND EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS...MAINLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...RADAR REFLECTIVITIES APPEAR TO BE TRENDING
DOWNWARD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
IN THE NEAR TERM UP TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE WINTER STORM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND NEW SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE TO LESSEN.
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON COULD REACH UP TO AN
INCH...BUT LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW COULD OCCUR ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER
UP TO 2 INCHES. RAP MODEL THETA LAPSE RATES/NEGATIVE EPV VALUES
INDICATE AN AREA OF MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH SOME FRONTOGENESIS PRESENT ALONG THE SAME
AXIS AS THE CURRENT RADAR TREND WITH THE SNOW BAND POSITIONED NEAR
THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. A SNOW BAND MOVING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80 ALONG HIGHWAY 283 COULD ALSO BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW UP TO AN
INCH FOR NORTON AND HILL CITY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE LOW
CENTER MOVES EAST ENOUGH TO END THE SNOW THREAT.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS IS THE
BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY THREAT. STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OF 16-18 MB HAS BROUGHT STRONG WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AT TIMES...AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES
NOT HAVE THIS GRADIENT LESSENING FOR THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT
MST (1 AM CST) TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES...DESPITE THERE BEING NO
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. UNLESS
ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY...TRAVEL IS NOT ADVISED.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD STABILIZE AFTER MIDNIGHT MST (1 AM
CST) TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY END THE BLOWING SNOW AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY THREAT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION FROM NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN BETWEEN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND THE MIDDLE TEENS. COLD TEMPERATURES IN
COMBINATION WITH WIND GUSTS WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 10 ABOVE
TO 10 BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016
STRONG UPPER LOW TRANSITIONS EAST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LARGE SCALE RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE
WESTERN US RESULTING IN A SHARP N-NW FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN MAY SUPPORT QUICK SHOTS OF
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. OVERALL CHANCES OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THESE PERIODS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH A
PREDOMINANTLY DRY FORECAST. THIS IS DUE TO EITHER DEEPER DRY AIR
MASS BETWEEN CLIPPERS OR LACK OF CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS.
TEMPERATURES ARE PARTICULARLY TRICKY AS THIS PATTERN WOULD NORMALLY
SUPPORT A TREND TOWARDS SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER WITH THE
ONGOING SNOW EVENT AND AT LEAST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA
RECEIVING 10" OR MORE OF SNOW HIGH TEMPERATURES IN PARTICULAR ARE
LIKELY GOING TO BE LOWER THAN MODELS INDICATE. I TRENDED ALL HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN AND UNDERCUT ALL GUIDANCE THROUGH THESE PERIODS.
SNOW WILL ALSO AID IN RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE NIGHT...AND
ASSUMING WINDS REMAIN LIGHT (TO PREVENT LOW LEVEL MIXING) MODELS MAY
HAVE A WARM BIAS ON LOWS.
REGARDING WIND CHILLS WED NIGHT/THU MORNING...THE AIR MASS AND
ORIENTATION OF THE WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT MIGHT ACTUALLY LEAD TO MORE
MIXING WHICH COULD OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF SNOW/CLEARING SKIES AND
RESULTING WIND CHILLS MAY NOT ACTUALLY REACH -15F (ADVISORY). IT IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR -10 TO -20F WIND CHILLS...BUT I THINK THIS
MAY BE A LOCALIZED THREAT. WITH ONGOING HAZARDS THERE ARE NO CURRENT
PLANS FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1011 AM MST TUE FEB 2 2016
A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MESSY CONDITIONS FOR
BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. VLIFR REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES AND IFR/LIFR REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS WITHIN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 6
HOURS.
AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST...CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE AS SNOWFALL STOPS...BUT STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL CAUSE
PERIODIC BLOWING SNOW FOR BOTH TERMINALS.
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
AFTER 6Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ001-013-027>029-041-042.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ002>004-
014>016.
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COZ090>092.
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ080-081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
138 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND TAKING A NEGATIVE TILT AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES. THE STRONG CIRCULATION IS
EVIDENT BASED ON VIS/IR SATELLITE DATA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. RADAR TRENDS SHOW A SMALL BAND OF
SNOWFALL CONTINUING TO BRING LIGHT SNOW FOR SOME PORTIONS OF EASTERN
COLORADO AND EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS...MAINLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...RADAR REFLECTIVITIES APPEAR TO BE TRENDING
DOWNWARD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
IN THE NEAR TERM UP TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE WINTER STORM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND NEW SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE TO LESSEN.
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON COULD REACH UP TO AN
INCH...BUT LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW COULD OCCUR ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER
UP TO 2 INCHES. RAP MODEL THETA LAPSE RATES/NEGATIVE EPV VALUES
INDICATE AN AREA OF MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH SOME FRONTOGENESIS PRESENT ALONG THE SAME
AXIS AS THE CURRENT RADAR TREND WITH THE SNOW BAND POSITIONED NEAR
THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. A SNOW BAND MOVING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80 ALONG HIGHWAY 283 COULD ALSO BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW UP TO AN
INCH FOR NORTON AND HILL CITY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE LOW
CENTER MOVES EAST ENOUGH TO END THE SNOW THREAT.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS IS THE
BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY THREAT. STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OF 16-18 MB HAS BROUGHT STRONG WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AT TIMES...AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES
NOT HAVE THIS GRADIENT LESSENING FOR THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT
MST (1 AM CST) TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES...DESPITE THERE BEING NO
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. UNLESS
ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY...TRAVEL IS NOT ADVISED.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD STABILIZE AFTER MIDNIGHT MST (1 AM
CST) TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY END THE BLOWING SNOW AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY THREAT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION FROM NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN BETWEEN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND THE MIDDLE TEENS. COLD TEMPERATURES IN
COMBINATION WITH WIND GUSTS WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 10 ABOVE
TO 10 BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST TUE FEB 2 2016
FIRST CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD IS THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS
ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM DIGS TO NEAR THE REGION FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA
SHOWS THIS SYSTEM MOVING AND THEN CUTTING OFF WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE AREA. SO THE CURRENT AND LATEST INIT FORECAST OF DRY
CONDITIONS LOOKS GOOD.
TEMPORARY SHORTWAVE RIDGING OCCURS ON SATURDAY. AFTER THAT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD...THE FLOW AMPLIFIES AS A SHARP MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AND A
STRONG SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
THIS IS GOING TO LEAVE A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVES AND A RATHER STRONG UPPER JET NEAR THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MODELS WANT TO PRODUCE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF QPF BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. CAN
SEE THIS HAPPENING WITH THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG
JET. THE INIT DOES NOT INTRODUCE ANY POPS AND AM OKAY WITH THIS AT
THIS TIME SINCE IT IS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THERE IS SOME
MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
COUNTRY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS PERIOD CAREFULLY.
THE BIGGEST PROBLEM WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES. REGION IS CURRENTLY
GETTING BLASTED BY A MAJOR WINTER STORM WHICH IS PRODUCING A LOT OF
SNOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BRING DOWN A LOT OF COLD AIR. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORS...DID LOWER TEMPERATURES SOME BUT ADDITIONAL LOWERING WILL
PROBABLY BE NEEDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1011 AM MST TUE FEB 2 2016
A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MESSY CONDITIONS FOR
BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. VLIFR REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES AND IFR/LIFR REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS WITHIN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 6
HOURS.
AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST...CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE AS SNOWFALL STOPS...BUT STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL CAUSE
PERIODIC BLOWING SNOW FOR BOTH TERMINALS.
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
AFTER 6Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ001-013-027>029-041-042.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ002>004-
014>016.
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COZ090>092.
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ080-081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
250 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
...Updated short term and long term discussions...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
Models this morning were in good agreement with the 500mb low
moving from southwest Kansas to southeast Nebraska today. Based on
this track of the upper level system, 700mb low track, and where
the moisture and frontogenesis will be located early today it
appears that steady snow will continue north of a Garden City to
La Crosse line through at least the early afternoon. The steadier
and heavier snowfall is expected between 12z and 18z Tuesday
across north central Kansas. In addition to the ongoing
precipitation early this morning the north to northwest winds
across western Kansas will range from 25 to 35 mph. Wind speeds
will be stronger in north central Kansas
As of 2 am snow totals were below warning criteria north of
highway 96, however a band of steadier precipitation was beginning
to move into the area. Given this area of steadier and heavier
precipitation moving into this region early this morning combined
with increasing winds early Tuesday along with an additional
couple of inches mid to late morning have decided to keep the
winter storm warning going. The current WSW highlighting the
blowing and drifting snow still looks on track along with the snow
totals.
South of Garden city will begin cancelling counties from the
winter weather advisory based on phone calls and that any
additional precipitation will be one inch or less.
Tonight as the main upper level storm system moves across Iowa
another, weaker, upper level disturbance will approach western
Kansas from the Northwest. Precipitation chances with the next
system appears low, however clouds are expected to linger through
the predawn hours. Gusty northwest winds are also expected to stay
up overnight so at this time given the expected winds and cloud
cover will be favoring lows in the teens. the cooler mins will be
across west central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
The northwest winds will continue to decrease on Wednesday as a
surface ridge axis begins to build into western Kansas early in
the day. 00z NAM and GFS soundings late day continues to support
highs mainly in the low to mid 30s. A few upper 30s will be
possible near the Oklahoma border while to coolest highs will be
located where the higher snowfall is expected.
Wednesday night may end up being the coldest night of the work
week given the expected sky cover and winds between 09z and 12z
Thursday. Given that the winds will be westerly will not undercut
guidance by much with the possible exception being in west central
and portions of north central Kansas.
Dry conditions and a warming trend can then be expected late week
and over the weekend period. The 900 to 850mb temperature trends
suggesting highs climbing back into the upper 40s to lower 50s by
the start of the weekend period. This appears reasonable in areas
where no snow cover will exist late week. In areas where snow
cover is expected Thursday and Friday the highs will likely be
between 10 to 20 degrees cooler.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Tuesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
RAP and HRRR are in good agreement this morning with IFR along
with periods of LIFR ceilings through at least late Tuesday
morning as snow continues, Ceilings will begin to gradually
improve between 15z and 18z Wednesday as the snow begins to taper
off from southwest to northeast. Gusty east to northeast winds
will shift to the north northwest after 11z and then increase to
around 25 knots between 15z and 18z Tuesday. At this time the
areas most favorable to continuous snow along with blowing snow
will be at GCK through 15z and HYS through the early afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 32 16 34 16 / 20 0 0 0
GCK 29 12 32 8 / 50 0 0 0
EHA 32 16 35 16 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 35 17 37 15 / 10 0 0 0
HYS 32 15 30 9 / 80 10 0 0
P28 42 21 38 17 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening
for KSZ046-061>065-074>077.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ030-031-
043>045.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1130 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
...Updated Aviation and Synopsis...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
At 00z Tuesday a -31C 500mb low/trough was located across southern
Colorado and northern New Mexico. Another upper level trough was
located across Idaho. A surface and 850mb low was located across
southeast Colorado with a surface boundary extending southeast
from the surface low into northwest Oklahoma.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
A few items of concern within the next 24 hours. 1) snow, 2) thunderstorms,
3) wind. An upper level low will swing on in from the southwest through
the overnight. Considerable upslope is expected on the north side of
the synoptic disturbance. This region is generally across northwest
and north-central Kansas. For snow amounts, have the highest snow amounts
from Scott City to WaKeeney. 6-8" will be possible in this area. The
ECMWF shows slightly higher amounts, however, the mesoscale models are
lower as a result of low to mid level dry air advecting in. To the south
and southeast, have a wide area of advisory amounts (2-5") from Johnson
to Jetmore to Ash Valley and points northwest. Focusing farther south,
a modified warm sector will spread northward on the south side of the
low. HRRR and to a lesser extent the NAM show some MUCAPE forming. Low
level clouds have hung around across the OK/TX panhandles, but there
is some clearing this early afternoon. Models show -28C 500-hPa temperatures,
so I do think some MUCAPE can be realized if clearing/warming continues.
Forecast soundings are very impressive in terms of wind shear and kinematics.
Soundings support low topped convection. The HRRR is also showing some
updraft helicity, so there was a very slight concern for a brief spin
up tornado. Elkhart looks the most interesting in terms of any "spring-
like" convection. MUCAPE is weak, so this would be the main limiting
factor. Some of the other models like the ARW show somewhat of a line
developing across the Panhandles, so this might miss us, but still reasonably
confident there will be at least some thunderstorms around far southwest
Kansas this evening. Lastly, this system is forecast to be closed off
as it ejects across western Kansas. 850-hPa winds of 30-40 kt will spell
out the concern for windy conditions tomorrow morning. This will create
wind chills in the 5 to 15F range. Beyond tomorrow, the synoptic low
moves off to the northeast and weak high pressure with some downslope
moves in. Temperatures will rebound through the end of the business
week with 40s returning, except lower temps over the snow pack. Another
low may approach the region next Saturday, however, the main dynamics
look to be too far away from southwest Kansas. There might be a cooling
trend next week as the longwave trough amplifies and caa could develop
across the Central Plains.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Tuesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
RAP and HRRR are in good agreement this morning with IFR along
with periods of LIFR ceilings through at least late Tuesday
morning as snow continues, Ceilings will begin to gradually
improve between 15z and 18z Wednesday as the snow begins to taper
off from southwest to northeast. Gusty east to northeast winds
will shift to the north northwest after 11z and then increase to
around 25 knots between 15z and 18z Tuesday. At this time the
areas most favorable to continuous snow along with blowing snow
will be at GCK through 15z and HYS through the early afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 29 32 15 35 / 80 20 0 0
GCK 26 29 12 33 / 90 40 0 0
EHA 23 30 14 35 / 90 20 0 0
LBL 26 31 16 37 / 90 20 0 0
HYS 30 32 12 31 / 90 60 10 0
P28 35 39 19 38 / 60 20 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Tuesday for
KSZ046-061>065-074>077.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Tuesday for KSZ030-031-
043>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Burgert
Discussion...Sugden
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1117 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 250 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
The incoming storm system is, more or less, evolving as advertised
this Monday afternoon. Surface cyclogenesis is ongoing while a broad
but so far loosely organized precipitation shield is overspreading
much of western Kansas, Colorado, and into Nebraska. In the local
area, light rain will be possible into early evening as these weak
impulses move across the region with areas of light precipitation.
This may mix with periods of snow mainly in/near Republic county but
accumulation should be pretty much 0 through 9 PM or so.
The main precipitation shield will move out of central Kansas and
across the local area between roughly 10 PM and 6 AM. Expect to see
embedded thunderstorms within this area of moderate rain, with an
isolated lightning strike or two not out of the question even within
the snow area. Instability is not particularly strong and the storms
will be mainly elevated, but with the very strong winds just above
the surface, there is a small chance for a few downdrafts to bring
some locally stronger winds down to the surface. Within the rain
area, expect generally from 0.50 to 1 inch of rain.
The snow forecast remains quite difficult even only a few hours in
advance of the storm. And really, the only reason it remains
difficult is because the rain/snow cutoff line continues to
fluctuate slightly regarding the location of what should be a very
sharp gradient in snow amounts. Additionally, warm ground
temperatures and even warm air temperatures during snowfall will
induce a bit of melting and compacting more than normal. At the same
time, when the snow does begin, the rates should be extremely heavy
with convective snowfall initially and transitioning to more of a
frontogenesis and dynamics-driven snowfall which should still see
moderate rates. Would not be surprised to see snowfall rates exceed
2" per hour for a couple of hours within the heavy snow area. Models
remain in fairly good agreement in terms of where the snow/rain
cutoff will be throughout the night, but still with enough of a N/S
variation to keep question marks in the snow total forecast. High-
Res guidance such as the HRRR and RAP seem to be initializing a bit
warm but still get cold enough in far northwest parts of the CWA
during the heavy precip period to support heavy snow accumulation.
Still looking for the winter-storm-type accumulation amounts near
and north of the Concordia to Washington line, with sharply lower
amounts south of that line.
There appears to be a high likelihood that the dry slot will
overspread the majority of the forecast area during the day on
Tuesday, although again with a rather sharp dry-to-snow cutoff in
the far northwest corner of the forecast area so some additional
snow will remain possible during the morning within the warned area.
Then during the afternoon or early evening, a vort max will wrap
around the main system and may support another quick shot of light
snow on the order of an inch or more, mainly in areas north of I-70.
Winds will continue to be an issue for any areas that experience
heavy snow as there will be some reduced visibility and drifting.
Should note though that the winds appear to have a lull on Tuesday
as the center of the surface low moves overhead.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
No major changes needed in the extended as upper wave pattern favors
a dry northwest flow with upper troughs passing to the northeast and
southwest of the CWA. Northwest winds are initially gusty behind the
departing wave Wednesday morning, before gradually diminishing to
around 10 mph at sunset. Cold air advecting from the snow pack in
Nebraska was shown in decent agreement with respect to temperatures
on Wednesday and Thursday with readings in the 30s and overnight
lows in the teens and 20s. Southerly winds return Thursday onward
with mostly sunny skies return and highs rebound to the upper 40s
through the weekend. Next cold front and potential system arrives by
Monday with much uncertainty in guidance on any available
moisture.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1117 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
A complicated forecast is just beginning to unfold. With area of
thunderstorms moving out of central OK, decided to go prevailing
-TSRA at TOP and FOE with a VCTS for MHK. Think CIGS and VSBY will
mainly me MVFR and don`t have a great deal of confidence in IFR
conditions lasting for a long time based on upstream conditions
and there still being some dry air in low levels. Think TOP and
FOR will become VFR late in the morning as the dry slot works its
way through eastern KS. MHK continues to be a little less clear
whether the clearing will get in there or only be temporary. So
only have a tempo for VFR conditions and will let later shifts
evaluate. Then MVFR Conditions should move back into the
terminals as the wrap around moisture passes through. There could
be some light rain mixed with snow, but this appears to be light
in intensity so I don`t have VSBY being affected very much by
this. Winds are likely to remain gusty, save for when the surface
low passes by, due to a tight pressure gradient.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM Tuesday to midnight CST
Tuesday night for KSZ010-011-021-022-034.
Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST Tuesday night for KSZ008-
009-020.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1000 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016
HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE COUNTIES ALONG INTERSTATE 70 AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 25 TO A BLIZZARD WARNING STARTING AT 11Z AND ENDING IT AT
THE ORIGINAL WINTER STORM WARNING TIME OF 00Z (WEDNESDAY). ITS
LIKELY BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WONT LAST QUITE THAT LONG BUT GROUND
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ONCE THE HIGHER
SNOWFALL RATES EXIT THE AREA.
LOCAL WIND GUST PROGRAM ALONG WITH MAV AND LAMP GUIDANCE
SUPPORTING WIND GUSTS IN THE 45 TO 50 MPH RANGE IN THE BLIZZARD
WARNING AREA. IN ADDITION...NAM/RUC/HRRR AND SREF
SHOWINGVISIBILITYY FORECASTS IN THE 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE RANGE WITH
RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR. THE COMBINATION OF ALL THESE
FEATURES SUPPORTS UPGRADING TO A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ABOVE
MENTIONED AREAS.
OUTSIDE OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM WARNING
GOING. WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH EXPECTED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016
UPDATED TEMP/DEWPOINT/WIND GRIDS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MAIN
CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE THE WINDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH EXPECTED...STRONGEST TOMORROW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF SLOWLY DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM.
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO NEAR TRINIDAD. 00Z NAM/RUC AND 21Z SREF SHOW
THE LOW MOVING TOWARD DODGE CITY/GARDEN CITY AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY
THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD OMAHA BY THE END OF THE DAY.
ABOVE MENTIONED 00Z AND 21Z MODELS ARE SHOWING 24 HOUR SNOWFALL
TOTALS FROM 00Z THIS EVENING THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY NEARLY TWICE AS
MUCH AS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. ADD THE STRONG WINDS TO THE EXPECTED
SNOW AND WE GET THE POSSIBILITY OF VISIBILITIES (PER RAP AND NAM)
NEAR ONE QUARTER MILE IN THE 11Z-13Z TIMEFRAME PLUS OR MINUS A FEW
HOURS.
BOTTOM LINE...THE HEAVIEST OF THE SNOW AND THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE STILL ON THEIR WAY. WILL RE-EVALUATE SNOWFALL TOTALS AFTER
03Z RUC/HRRR COMES IN AND COORDINATE WITH OVERNIGHT FORECASTER
ABOUT POSSIBLE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE AMOUNTS EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 104 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016
TONIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...
ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDY SKIES ABOUND FOR
THE AREA WITH A PERSISTENT ESE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE
CURRENT WIND REGIME IS THE RESULT OF THE LITTLE TO LACK OF MOVEMENT
OF THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WINTER EVENT. THIS IS
ALLOWING A WIDE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FOR THE AREA FROM THE U20S/L30S
IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WHILE THE EASTERN HALF IS SEEING
MOSTLY M30S TO L40S.
REGIONAL RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW PRECIP MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM. THE TEMP CHANGES ARE
ALLOWING FOR RAIN TO MIX INTO THE EASTERN AREA WITH SNOW...BUT
GIVING ALL SNOW WEST.
GOING INTO TONIGHT...DESPITE THE LACK OF MOVEMENT WITH THIS STORM
FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS...STILL EXPECT THE WAVE OF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW TO GIVE THE AREA A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION BEFORE STEADY SNOWFALL ARRIVES OVERNIGHT. WITH CURRENT
TRACK REMAINING VERY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...HAVE NOT CHANGED
CURRENT WARNINGS AMOUNTS.
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO TUESDAY MORNING IS STILL EXPECTED TO SEE
THE BULK OF THE WARNING SNOWS BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. LINGERING -SW/CLOUDS STILL
POSSIBLE FOR MOST LOCALES TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IS DEPENDENT ON SPEED
OF SYSTEM WHEN IT ENTERS THE PLAINS SPHERE OF INFLUENCE.
THE OTHER MENTIONED FACTOR IN PLAY IN TANDEM WITH THE EXPECTED
SNOWFALL WILL BE THE STRONG EAST/NORTH GRADIENT WINDS. WITH THE
CURRENT ESE FLOW EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE NNE AS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES...DO EXPECT STEADY 20-30 WITH GUSTS TO
40 MPH. BLOWING SNOW CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RESULT...WHICH ALSO MAY
CREATE NEAR-BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
FOR TEMPS...LOOKING FOR A SLOW DROP INTO THE 20S FOR ALL AREAS
TONIGHT...WHICH IS GOING TO BE ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO LACK OF STRONG
CAA NOT ARRIVING UNTIL TOMORROW AS WINDS GO MOSTLY NORTHERLY. LITTLE
REBOUND GOING INTO TUESDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING MID/UPPER 0S
AT BEST. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...SINGLE NUMBERS TO LOW TEENS ON TAP FOR
THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 104 PM MST MON
FEB 1 2016
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SNOW TO THE TRI STATE AREA
WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
THE TROUGH BASE POSITIONED OVER EASTERN KANSAS WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE PLACED OVER THE WESTERN COAST. AS A RESULT OF THE TROUGH
PASSAGE AND THE RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST OF THE TRI STATE
AREA...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO BREAK TOWARDS WEDNESDAY EVENING AS MORE STABLE
AIR WITH AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY...SO DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WIND CHILLS
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
NEARING ZERO AND WIND CHILL READINGS AS LOW AS 17-18 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN
COLORADO.
THE NEXT POSSIBLE WEATHER MAKER WILL BE FRIDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE DIMINISHES AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE COLORADO
FRONT RANGE. MODEL FORECASTS IN GENERAL HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH POSITIONED ALONG THE COLORADO
FRONT RANGE. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE LIFT AND STRONGER JET STREAM WILL
BE POSITIONED WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WITH THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...MAINLY FOR EASTERN COLORADO.
THEREFORE...KEPT SOME SLIGHT SILENT POPS IN EASTERN COLORADO FOR
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MID DAY FRIDAY.
A SLIGHT WARM UP WILL OCCUR FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING INTO THE LOWER 40S...WHICH IS ABOUT NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER TROUGH LOOKS TO EMERGE OUT OF WESTERN CANADA
AND SLIDE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE ROCKIES TOWARDS THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT FORECAST MODELS HAVE NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 415 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016
FOR KGLD AND KMCK...A WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS
THROUGH THE PERIOD BRINGING IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. WINDS BEGIN THE PERIOD
FROM THE EAST GUSTING 25 TO 30KTS...SLOWLY BACKING TO THE
NORTHEAST AROUND 6Z...NORTH BY 10Z...AND NORTHWEST BY 17Z. WIND
GUSTS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY COULD APPROACH 40KTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
KSZ001-013-027>029-041-042.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM CST TUESDAY FOR KSZ002>004-
014>016.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR KSZ002>004-
014>016.
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ090>092.
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR NEZ079.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM CST TUESDAY FOR NEZ080-081.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR NEZ080-081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
702 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016
TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY FALL THROUGH THE 50S AND 40S THIS
EVENING AS LOWERING STRATUS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
INTERMITTENT SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME
COMPLETE WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BEFORE
POTENTIALLY MIXING WITH A FEW FLURRIES LATER TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN. SATURATION WILL REMAIN SHALLOW PRECLUDING ANY
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016
CLOUDS QUICKLY CLEARED OUT BEHIND THE FRONT EARLIER TODAY AS DRY
AIR FILTERED INTO THE REGION. THANKS TO PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...HIGHS ARE TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL TAKE A TUMBLE TO NEAR FREEZING OR JUST
BELOW...EVEN WITH LLVL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE
LLVL MOISTURE WILL GET TRAPPED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT
AND MORNING PERIOD BEFORE CLEARING OUT SOMETIME IN THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST...USHERING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWING TOMORROW WITH HIGHS
ONLY NIPPING AT THE 40 DEGREE MARK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS
BUILDING INTO THE COMMONWEALTH THURSDAY EVENING MAKING FOR A
CHILLY NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 20 DEGREES. A SUNNY
AND SEASONABLE DAY IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016
THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTING
TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS FROM THE MS VALLEY. ALSO TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND NORTH INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH A COUPLE OF UNPHASED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BEGIN THE PERIOD EXTENDING FROM THE OH VALLEY
SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST STATES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL WORK ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE SHOULD TRACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHEAST WHILE THE SOUTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL TAKE THE BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA TO START THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE
AT THE SFC. THE RESULT SHOULD BE DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. LOWS ON FRI NIGHT
SHOULD BE ON THE COLD SIDE IN THE VALLEYS...WITH THE COLDEST SPOTS
PROBABLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS WITH 20S ELSEWHERE.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE AXIS OF TROUGHING AT 500 MB
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND IT FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME THOUGH...THE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS SHOULD BEGIN TO AMPLIFY
WITH RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST AND TROUGHING BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK...THE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WITH THE RIDGING REMAINING IN
PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND A
TROUGH MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN CONUS. MODEL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL IN THE DETAILS OF TIMING
AND EXACTLY HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION. MODEL AGREEMENT IS
BETTER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THAT A SHORTWAVE SHOULD TRACK FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
CLOSE OFF BY THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH A SFC LOW ALSO TRACKING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. THIS SHOULD USHER IN THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AIRMASS THAT
WILL BRING A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THOUGH THE
MAGNITUDE BELOW NORMAL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. A MODEL COMPROMISE
SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO EXCEED THE FREEZING MARK IN
MANY LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY BEFORE STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE
UPPER 20S ON WEDNESDAY.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED DURING THIS PERIOD
FROM SUNDAY EVENING INTO MIDWEEK...AS WEAK SHORTWAVES PASS AND
MODELS INDICATE SOME MOISTURE WITH THESE AS WELL. DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAVING AN UPSLOPE
COMPONENT FOR PORTIONS OF THIS PERIOD. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
FORM TIME TO TIME ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLY AND POTENTIAL HAS
CONTINUED TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 702 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
APPROACHING STRATUS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND INTRODUCES MVFR
CEILINGS. ENOUGH DRY AIR CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE LOCKED IN NEAR THE
SURFACE TO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME AS WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 5 KNOTS. COULD SEE A SPRINKLE
OR EVEN A SNOW FLURRY LATER TONIGHT FALL FROM THIS STRATUS. SHOULD
SEE THESE MVFR CEILINGS MIX OUT BY MID THURSDAY MORNING WITH
LINGERING SCATTERED CLOUD DECKS REMAINING AROUND FL020-FL030
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GUSEMAN
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GUSEMAN
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
622 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EST Wed Feb 3 2016
Main forecast concerns in the short term are sprinkles/clouds this
evening and temperatures. Overall, relatively benign weather in the
short term.
Stratus deck upstream associated with the advancing upper trough
axis will swing through southern Indiana and central Kentucky late
this afternoon and into the evening hours. 12z ILX sounding and HRRR
soundings for the area this evening show this stratus to be about 50
to maybe 100 mb thick and with weak lift present this evening, there
could be a few sprinkles across southern Indiana and north central
Kentucky. HRRR simulated reflectivity has been consistent showing a
thin band over the area between 4 and 10p, so have maintained slight
chance of sprinkles in the forecast. Winds will remain gusty to near
20 to perhaps 25 mph at times through the evening as well with
temperatures falling into the mid/upper 30s.
Surface high pressure moves across the area Thursday and Thursday
night, setting up a cool but dry day. Plan on highs in the upper 30s
to around 40 degrees. We`ll have some morning stratus around but as
the high advances east, this should erode and push east giving way
to some sun by afternoon. Thursday night lows look to fall into the
mid 20s with mostly clear skies and lighter winds.
.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 250 PM EST Wed Feb 3 2016
The main forecast concern in the long term period is precipitation
chances and temperatures next week.
Friday through the weekend the region will be under the influence of
high pressure at the surface and zonal flow aloft. A couple weather
systems look to pass well south and north of the area, but southern
Indiana and central Kentucky will generally see seasonal
temperatures and dry conditions.
By late Sunday night into Monday, a surface low and anomalously deep
upper trough looks to swing through the Upper Midwest and Great
Lakes. This will spill colder air down into the area and chances for
precipitation. Depending on temperatures, rain may mix with or
changeover to snow Monday. As the upper trough hangs overhead and
more cold air arrives Monday night and Tuesday, temperatures would
be cold enough to support all snow. The GFS 850 mb temperatures are
considerably colder than the ECMWF and GEM 3.12z solutions. A model
consensus trended downward from the previous forecast, with highs
Tuesday and Wednesday in the mid 20s to low 30s and morning
temperatures in the teens. This may trend further down if the GFS
solutions end up verifying. Precipitation chances were brought up
into the 30 to 50 percent range Monday through Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 620 PM EST Wed Feb 3 2016
Current wall of clouds riding near a SDF/BWG line this hour and has
slowed its eastward progression as it moves into drier low-level
air. With sunset however expect that progression to kick back up
again. Bases are VFR for now but should drop through the overnight,
getting to MVFR levels bay daybreak at SDF and LEX and possibly BWG.
Those cigs should improve again by late morning/early afternoon,
with clearing forecast by late in the period. Winds will be from the
west, but much not nearly as gusty as it has been the last couple of
days.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........ZT
Aviation..........RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
415 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW POTENT SHRTWV
LIFTING NEWD INTO THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH BAND OF HEAVY PCPN
IN THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT EXTENDING FM NEBRASKA INTO WI SHIFTING N
INTO THE SRN CWA AS DYNAMIC FORCING/H85-7 FGEN/UPR DVGC IN LEFT EXIT
OF SUPPORTING H3 JET STREAK AND RIGHT ENTRANCE OF ANOTHER JET STREAK
OVER SE CANADA IS FINALLY OVERCOMING DRY AIR SHOWN BTWN H85-7 ON THE
LOCAL 12Z RAOBS. 00Z-12Z 12HR H5 HGT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WERE AS GREAT AS 200M AT DODGE CITY KS...AND THE
ACCOMPANYING STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING HAS CAUSED SOME LTNG ON THE SRN
EDGE OF THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS AS FAR N AS SCENTRAL WI. SOME
LOCATIONS IN WI HAVE SEEN SN FALL AT THE RATE OF 2 INCHES/HR THIS
AFTN. DRY SLOTTING ON THE ACYC SIDE OF THE UPR LO TRACK IS PUSHING
INTO SRN MN/WI. THIS UPR LO APPEARS TO BE TRACKING FARTHER W THAN
EXPECTED.
FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS ON ONGOING HEADLINES ASSOCIATED WITH
APRCHG VIGOROUS SHRTWV AND IMPACT OF DRY SLOTTING ON SN TOTALS/MIX
WITH FZDZ.
LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT...SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD TOWARD THE UPR LKS IS FCST
TO WEAKEN A BIT AS IT REACHES NW WI AT 12Z WED. AREA OF ENHANCED UPR
DVGC/H85-7 FGEN OVER CCB AND UNDER SHARP DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC
AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWV WL BRING A PERIOD OF SOME MDT/HEAVY SN TO
MAINLY THE E 2/3 OF THE CWA THIS EVNG. H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FCST UP
TO 4 G/KG OVER THE SE CWA WL ALLOW ABOUT 6 INCHES OF WET SN TO FALL
OVER THE SE CWA BEFORE DRY SLOTTING ON THE ERN FLANK OF APRCHG H5-7
LO CAUSES THE SN TO DIMINISH AS EARLY AS LATE EVNG-MIDNGT AT
MENOMINEE. ALTHOUGH THE SPECIFIC HUMIDITY IS FCST TO BE LOWER OVER
THE W /ABOUT 2 G/KG/...FCST SN/WATER RATIOS FCST AS HI AS 20-25:1
THIS EVNG AND MORE PROLONGED DEEPER MSTR AWAY FM MID LVL DRY
SLOTTING WL ALLOW SIMILAR OVERNGT SN TOTALS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
FAR W NEAR THE PORCUPINE MTNS...WHERE A MORE UPSLOPE CYC NNE FLOW WL
BE THE RULE OVERNGT AND ADD SOME LK ENHANCEMENT WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR -
10C. SINCE THE KEWEENAW WL BE IMPACTED BY THIS MORE PERSISTENT
DEEPER RH AND THE LATEST WPC SN FCST SHOWS A MAXIMUM OVER THE WRN
CWA WITH SHIFT OF THE TRACK OF THE UPR LO TO THE W...OPTED TO
UPGRADE ADVY FOR THAT AREA TO A WARNING. THE 12Z NAM IS QUITE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DRY SLOTTING...SHOWING SOME MID LVL DRYING
IMPACTING THE AREA FM IRON RIVER TO THE HURON MTNS OVERNGT. ALTHOUGH
THE SHRTWV IS FCST TO WEAKEN A BIT OVERNGT...CURRENT STLT TRENDS
SUPPORT MORE EXTENSIVE MID LVL DRY SLOTTING AND EXPANDING POTENTIAL
MIX WITH FZDZ FARTHER TO THE W TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE SE HALF.
ALTHOUGH THE DISTURBANCE WL BE WEAKENING A BIT...NE H925 WINDS FCST
AS HI AS 35-40KTS WL ALLOW FOR BLSN...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS NEAR
LK SUP.
WED...BULK OF THE LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AREA
OF DEEPER MID LVL MSTR WRAPPING BACK THRU THE CWA UNDER TRACK OF
OPENING SHRTWV LIFTING TO THE NE AND ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC. SO AFTER SOME REDUCED POPS IN THE MRNG/MIX WITH FREEZING
DZ...BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE HI LIKELY RANGE FOR MORE SN WITH DEEPER
MSTR EXPANDING BACK INTO THE DGZ. ALTHOUGH SOME LES WL PERSIST OVER
THE W IN THE AFTN WITH CYC NNW FLOW OF COLDER AIR DROPPING H85 TEMPS
TO NEAR -15C BY 00Z THU...ARRIVAL OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IN THE
WAKE OF PASSING SHRTWV SHOULD RESULT IN DIMINISHING PCPN.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST QUEBEC
WEDNESDAY EVENING WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH AXIS LINGER
ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH AXIS LINGERING OVER THE AREA
WILL KEEP 850MB TEMPS AROUND -14C TO -15C. THE COMBINATION OF DELTA
T VALUES AROUND 17C TO 18C ALONG WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL KEEP AN ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MAINLY FOR NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE U.P. THIS WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
IN INTENSITY OVER THE WEST WHILE THE EAST CONTINUES TO LIGHT TO
MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL DROP FROM 6-7KFT
IN THE EVENING OVER THE WEST TO AROUND 3 TO 4KFT OVERNIGHT...AGAIN
POINTING TOWARD THE DIMINISHING TREND. OVER THE EAST
HALF...INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL STAY AROUND 6-7KFT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A LARGE PORTION OF THE MOIST LAYER WILL BE IN THE
DGZ...WHICH WILL HELP TO SUPPORT HIGHER SNOWFALL RATIOS AROUND 19:1
TO 22:1 ALONG WITH ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES FOR THE
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING AS A WEAK AND VERY BRIEF
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
REDUCTION IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT IT WILL BE VERY BRIEF AS ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL 500MB SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE INCREASED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH ALONG WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING
AROUND -14C TO -15C WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO KICK UP AGAIN.
THIS TIME THE MAIN AREA OF FOCUS WOULD BE MAINLY ALONG THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AS WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY.
INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO JUMP UP TO AROUND 6-8KFT AS THE
WAVE SLIDES THROUGH WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW TOTALS ARE EXPECTED AS THE WAVE IS SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA
QUICKLY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE KEWEENAW AND EASTERN AREAS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR COULD SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL HELP PEG ANY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO WESTERN U.P./KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND POSSIBLY
OVER EASTERN AREAS...MAINLY CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE. MOISTURE IS
PROGGED TO BE FAIRLY SHALLOW THROUGH THE DAY SO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS INVERSION HEIGHTS AND MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN BELOW 5KFT. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR INCREASED
MOISTURE WITH 850MB TEMPS REMAINING AROUND -14C TO -15C. THIS WILL
ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG WITH LIGHT SYSTEM SNOW TO OCCUR ACROSS
THE AREA. RIGHT NOW THE FAVORED LAKE ENHANCEMENT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD
OCCUR FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS...BUT THERE ARE
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE WIND FIELDS. DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A
MAJOR LAKE EFFECT EVENT AT THIS TIME.
SUNDAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED...BOTH THE EC AND GFS ARE SHOWING A
CLIPPER SYSTEM SLIDING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKE THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD. THIS WOULD END UP BRINGING WIDESPREAD SYSTEM SNOW
ACROSS THE U.P. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE THE LATEST GFS/EC
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT...PREVIOUS MODEL RUN COMPARISONS SHOW
THAT THERE HAS BEEN SOME DISAGREEMENTS FROM RUN TO RUN. AT THIS
POINT WILL NOT GET INTO THE SPECIFICS THIS FAR OUT. THE TREND WOULD
BE FOR THE CLIPPER SYSTEM TO SLIDE THROUGH DURING THAT TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
VFR TO MVFR CIGS THIS AFTN AT THE TAF SITES WL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE 21Z-24Z TIME PERIOD AS A BAND OF SN MOVES
INTO UPR MI IN ADVANCE OF A VIGOROUS LO PRES MOVING NE TOWARD THE
GREAT LKS. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE
NE...CREATING BLSN AT TIMES. THE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WL THEN PREVAIL
THRU THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE
COULD BE SOME FZDZ AT SAW FOR A TIME LATE TNGT INTO WED WITH
SOMEWHAT HIER VSBYS...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE IFR/LIFR RANGE
EVEN IF THIS OCCURS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS LOW PRES TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...EVENTUALLY CROSSING FAR NORTHERN LOWER MI LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND ADJACENT WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...SO GALE WARNING REMAINS
OVER THAT AREA FOR LATE EVENING THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. AFTER
A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY...THE NEXT PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS
WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH WINDS OF 20-30KT...STRONGEST
OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
WIND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ001>007-009-084-085.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ013-014.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ010>012.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
359 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW POTENT SHRTWV
LIFTING NEWD INTO THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH BAND OF HEAVY PCPN
IN THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT EXTENDING FM NEBRASKA INTO WI SHIFTING N
INTO THE SRN CWA AS DYNAMIC FORCING/H85-7 FGEN/UPR DVGC IN LEFT EXIT
OF SUPPORTING H3 JET STREAK AND RIGHT ENTRANCE OF ANOTHER JET STREAK
OVER SE CANADA IS FINALLY OVERCOMING DRY AIR SHOWN BTWN H85-7 ON THE
LOCAL 12Z RAOBS. 00Z-12Z 12HR H5 HGT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WERE AS GREAT AS 200M AT DODGE CITY KS...AND THE
ACCOMPANYING STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING HAS CAUSED SOME LTNG ON THE SRN
EDGE OF THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS AS FAR N AS SCENTRAL WI. SOME
LOCATIONS IN WI HAVE SEEN SN FALL AT THE RATE OF 2 INCHES/HR THIS
AFTN. DRY SLOTTING ON THE ACYC SIDE OF THE UPR LO TRACK IS PUSHING
INTO SRN MN/WI. THIS UPR LO APPEARS TO BE TRACKING FARTHER W THAN
EXPECTED.
FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS ON ONGOING HEADLINES ASSOCIATED WITH
APRCHG VIGOROUS SHRTWV AND IMPACT OF DRY SLOTTING ON SN TOTALS/MIX
WITH FZDZ.
LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT...SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD TOWARD THE UPR LKS IS FCST
TO WEAKEN A BIT AS IT REACHES NW WI AT 12Z WED. AREA OF ENHANCED UPR
DVGC/H85-7 FGEN OVER CCB AND UNDER SHARP DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC
AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWV WL BRING A PERIOD OF SOME MDT/HEAVY SN TO
MAINLY THE E 2/3 OF THE CWA THIS EVNG. H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FCST UP
TO 4 G/KG OVER THE SE CWA WL ALLOW ABOUT 6 INCHES OF WET SN TO FALL
OVER THE SE CWA BEFORE DRY SLOTTING ON THE ERN FLANK OF APRCHG H5-7
LO CAUSES THE SN TO DIMINISH AS EARLY AS LATE EVNG-MIDNGT AT
MENOMINEE. ALTHOUGH THE SPECIFIC HUMIDITY IS FCST TO BE LOWER OVER
THE W /ABOUT 2 G/KG/...FCST SN/WATER RATIOS FCST AS HI AS 20-25:1
THIS EVNG AND MORE PROLONGED DEEPER MSTR AWAY FM MID LVL DRY
SLOTTING WL ALLOW SIMILAR OVERNGT SN TOTALS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
FAR W NEAR THE PORCUPINE MTNS...WHERE A MORE UPSLOPE CYC NNE FLOW WL
BE THE RULE OVERNGT AND ADD SOME LK ENHANCEMENT WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR -
10C. SINCE THE KEWEENAW WL BE IMPACTED BY THIS MORE PERSISTENT
DEEPER RH AND THE LATEST WPC SN FCST SHOWS A MAXIMUM OVER THE WRN
CWA WITH SHIFT OF THE TRACK OF THE UPR LO TO THE W...OPTED TO
UPGRADE ADVY FOR THAT AREA TO A WARNING. THE 12Z NAM IS QUITE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DRY SLOTTING...SHOWING SOME MID LVL DRYING
IMPACTING THE AREA FM IRON RIVER TO THE HURON MTNS OVERNGT. ALTHOUGH
THE SHRTWV IS FCST TO WEAKEN A BIT OVERNGT...CURRENT STLT TRENDS
SUPPORT MORE EXTENSIVE MID LVL DRY SLOTTING AND EXPANDING POTENTIAL
MIX WITH FZDZ FARTHER TO THE W TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE SE HALF.
ALTHOUGH THE DISTURBANCE WL BE WEAKENING A BIT...NE H925 WINDS FCST
AS HI AS 35-40KTS WL ALLOW FOR BLSN...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS NEAR
LK SUP.
WED...BULK OF THE LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AREA
OF DEEPER MID LVL MSTR WRAPPING BACK THRU THE CWA UNDER TRACK OF
OPENING SHRTWV LIFTING TO THE NE AND ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC. SO AFTER SOME REDUCED POPS IN THE MRNG/MIX WITH FREEZING
DZ...BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE HI LIKELY RANGE FOR MORE SN WITH DEEPER
MSTR EXPANDING BACK INTO THE DGZ. ALTHOUGH SOME LES WL PERSIST OVER
THE W IN THE AFTN WITH CYC NNW FLOW OF COLDER AIR DROPPING H85 TEMPS
TO NEAR -15C BY 00Z THU...ARRIVAL OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IN THE
WAKE OF PASSING SHRTWV SHOULD RESULT IN DIMINISHING PCPN.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
FOCUS CERTAINLY ON THE FIRST 12-18 HOURS OF THE FORECAST STARTING
12Z WED AS A WINTER STORM IS EXITING THE REGION.
BY 12Z WED MODELS SHOW A STRONG UPPER WAVE OVER THE WRN CWA AND S
INTO IA. AT THE SFC...AN ELONGATED LOW WILL STRETCH FROM THE IL/WI
BORDER TO NRN LOWER MI. SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON THE TRACK
OF THE MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE WED MORNING/AFTERNOON...BUT MOST MODELS
FAVOR KEEPING THE BEST SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO THE SE
OF THE AREA...THE 00Z/01 NAM BEING THE EXCEPTION WITH BRINGING THAT
PRECIP OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN CWA. EVEN IF THE BEST PRECIP STAYS
SE...MOST OF UPPER MI WILL BE SEEING SNOW WED MORNING...BUT THE BEST
AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER THE NCENTRAL AND FAR W...WHERE CYCLONIC
CURVATURE TO LOW LEVEL WINDS FAVORS THESE AREAS FOR LAKE/UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT (NE-NNE FLOW). WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TO THE N BY 18Z AS
850MB TEMPS DROP TO -10C TO -12C. SHOULD SEE SOME BOOST TO LAKE
ENHANCED AREAS BETWEEN 12Z AND 21Z AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES SE OF THE
AREA. BY 00Z THU...WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NW-NNW WITH 850MB TEMPS
DOWN TO -12C TO -15C...FAVORING A TRANSITION IN SNOWBELTS THROUGH THE
DAY. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD DIMINISH WED EVENING THROUGH WED NIGHT AS A
SFC RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE W. GENERALLY HAVE AN ADDITIONAL 2-4
INCHES NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR BETWEEN 12Z WED AND 06Z THU...WITH AROUND 5
INCHES OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS.
ANOTHER CRITICAL ELEMENT WILL BE WINDS...WHICH WILL BE GUSTING TO 35
MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND 20-25 MPH INLAND. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE NE-NNE TO START THE DAY...GRADUALLY BACKING TO THE NW BY THE END
OF THE DAY. HARDEST HIT AREAS FOR BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE
LAKESHORE AREAS OF THE KEWEENAW AND NCENTRAL UPPER MI...ESPECIALLY
M-28 BETWEEN MARQUETTE AND MUNISING.
FOR THU THROUGH MON...LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE PATTERN STICKS AROUND
WITH SOME WEAK CLIPPERS AND SURGES OF COLDER AIR. NOTHING STICKS OUT
AS PARTICULARLY SIGNIFICANT AT THIS POINT...SO WILL RUN WITH
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE AND FOCUS ON SHORTER TERM SYSTEM
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
VFR TO MVFR CIGS THIS AFTN AT THE TAF SITES WL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE 21Z-24Z TIME PERIOD AS A BAND OF SN MOVES
INTO UPR MI IN ADVANCE OF A VIGOROUS LO PRES MOVING NE TOWARD THE
GREAT LKS. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE
NE...CREATING BLSN AT TIMES. THE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WL THEN PREVAIL
THRU THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE
COULD BE SOME FZDZ AT SAW FOR A TIME LATE TNGT INTO WED WITH
SOMEWHAT HIER VSBYS...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE IFR/LIFR RANGE
EVEN IF THIS OCCURS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
INITIAL LIGHT WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE THIS
AFTN/EVENING AS LOW PRES TRACKS NE FROM THE SRN PLAINS...EVENTUALLY
CROSSING FAR NRN LWR MI LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING. FREQUENT GALE
FORCE GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NCNTL AND ADJACENT WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR...SO GALE WARNING REMAINS UP IN THAT AREA FOR LATE EVENING
THRU MID MORNING WED. AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS THU...THE NEXT
PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS WILL ARRIVE FRI/SAT WITH WINDS OF
20-30KT...STRONGEST OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ001>007-009-084-085.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ013-014.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ010-011.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ012.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1229 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
BASED ON EXPECTED SN TOTALS APRCHG 10 INCHES OVER GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON
COUNTIES ON CYC SIDE OF UPR LO TRACK...WHICH APPEARS TO BE TRENDING
FARTHER TO THE W...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LK ENHANCEMENT WITH
CYC UPSLOPE NLY FLOW LATE TNGT/WED...OPTED TO UPGRADE WINTER WX ADVY
TO WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THOSE 2 COUNTIES AND EXTEND THE HEADLINE
TO 21Z WED...WHEN DEEPER MSTR IS FCST TO EXIT THE WRN CWA. THESE NEW
HEADLINES MATCH WELL WITH THOSE ISSUED BY SURROUNDING OFFICES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
MOVING OUT OVER KS...WHILE AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS ORGANIZING OVER
SCNTRL KS. 00Z RAOBS SHOWED A STRONG SRLY FLOW DEVELOPING OFF THE
WRN GULF OF MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO THE HEIGHT FALLS PUSHING OUT OVER
THE SRN PLAINS...AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PCPN INCREASING OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS WITH SNOW SPREADING OUT ACROSS NEBRASKA/IA.
CONSENSUS OF THE ARRAY OF 00Z MODEL RUNS IS FOR SFC LOW PRES TO
TRACK NE ACROSS FAR NRN LWR MI WHICH IS ESSENTIALLY RIGHT ALONG THE
MULTI DAY MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS UTILIZED FOR THE FCST OF THIS STORM
SYSTEM DURING THE LATTER PART OF LAST WEEK. WHILE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CURRENTLY DEPICTS AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING FEATURE...MODELS
HAVE BEEN AND CONTINUE TO POINT TO A FAST MOVING SYSTEM WITH THE
LACK OF AN ORGANIZED MID LEVEL LOW AS IT MOVES THRU THE UPPER LAKES.
OBVIOUSLY...FAST MOVEMENT LIMITS DURATION OF MDT/HVY SNOW. IN
ADDITION...THE LACK OF AN ORGANIZED MID LEVEL CENTER MEANS THIS
SYSTEM WON`T HAVE A SIGNIFICANT/ORGANIZED DEFORMATION PCPN SHIELD NW
OF THE LOW TRACK THAT WOULD LEAD TO PROLONGED MDT/HVY SNOW. AS A
RESULT...THIS WILL BASICALLY BE AN AVG KIND OF WINTER STORM FOR
UPPER MI WITH MUCH OF THE AREA REACHING WARNING CRITERIA...BUT
CERTAINLY NOT A BLOCKBUSTER STORM. HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS SHOULD BE IN
NCNTRL UPPER MI W OF MARQUETTE WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT/UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT OCCURS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
A NUMBER OF FACTORS INDICATE SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE FOR ABOUT A 2 TO 4HR PERIOD LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING.
COUPLING OF 2 UPPER JET STREAKS...LEFT EXIT OF ONE 150+KT JET
STREAKING TOWARD LWR MI AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A SECOND 140+KT
JET ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC...WILL LEAD TO STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE. DOWN TOWARD THE LOWER LEVELS...THERE IS A STRONG FGEN
RESPONSE IN ADDITION TO STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS NOTED ON 290K
SFC (ROUGHLY 700-750MB). ALONG WITH RATHER IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER
FORCING PER QVECTORS...ALL THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A ROUGHLY A 2-4HR
PERIOD OF MDT TO HVY SNOW LIFTING N ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATE THIS
AFTN AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY CNTRL AND E. HOWEVER...SINCE STRONGER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEGINS TO BE SHUNTED E WITH TIME AS SHORTWAVE
WEAKENS...SNOWFALL RATES WHICH WILL BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE OVER THE
PLAINS STATES WILL VERY LIKELY BE FALLING OFF AS THE SNOW SHIELD
LIFTS INTO UPPER MI. 00Z MODEL RUNS SUGGEST MID LEVEL DRYING WILL
SURGE INTO THE SCNTRL/ERN FCST AREA LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT BEHIND
THE MDT/HVY SNOW BAND. AS A RESULT...HAVE INTRODUCED -FZDZ IN THAT
AREA. OVERALL...MODELS SUGGEST SOMEWHAT LOWER SNOW TO WATER
RATIOS...AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME -FZDZ SCNTRL AND E...SNOW
TOTALS HAVE BEEN LOWERED A LITTLE OVER THE SE AND ERN FCST AREA.
SREF TRENDS HAVE ALSO SHOWN INCREASING SPREAD AND OVERALL LOWER SNOW
TOTALS OVER THE ERN FCST AREA...WITH THE MEAN RIGHT NEAR THE SUB 20
TO 1 SNOW TO WATER RATIO WARNING CRITERIA THRESHOLD OF 6IN/12HR.
MEANWHILE...THE CNTRL AND WRN FCST AREA SHOW A BETTER POTENTIAL OF
REACHING WARNING CRITERIA. GIVEN THE REGIONAL/GLOBAL CANADIAN MODELS
INSISTENCE ON A LOWER QPF EVENT OVERALL AND LATEST RAP MODEL RUN
INDICATING HEAVIER QPF LATE AFTN/EVENING PASSING TO THE E OF THE WRN
FCST AREA...WILL HOLD OFF ON CONVERTING THE WRN ADVY AREA TO A
WARNING. THAT SAID...LAKE ENHANCEMENT/UPSLOPE COMPONENT FOR WRN
GOGEBIC AND WRN ONTONAGON COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING
PUTS THAT AREA AT GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR REACHING WARNING CRITERIA.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR UPCOMING MODEL RUNS FOR A CONSISTENT SIGNAL TO
SEE IF AN UPGRADE TO WARNING WILL BE NEEDED.
IN THE END...EXPECT THE GREATEST SNOW TOTALS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
FROM AROUND NEGAUNEE/ISHPEMING INTO THE HURON MOUNTAINS WHERE
UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCEMENT COMPONENT WILL ADD AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES
TO SYNOPTIC SNOW. 850MB TEMPS ARE JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT...SO WOULD CERTAINLY LIKE TO SEE LOWER 850MB TEMPS TO
HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN BUMPING UP TOTALS SIGNIFICANTLY. ALL HIGH
RES GUIDANCE PEG THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH A NICE ENHANCEMENT OF
QPF...BUT HAVE TAKEN A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO BUMPING UP TOTALS.
FOR NOW...OFFICIAL FCST WILL SHOW TOTALS OF 12-14 INCHES FROM
NEGAUNEE/ISHPEMING THRU THE HURON MTNS.
FINALLY...AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES...THERE MAY NOT BE
MUCH BLSN SINCE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING. BLSN WILL BE MOST SIGNIFICANT
CLOSE TO THE GREAT LAKES. SYNOPTIC SETUP IS ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE FOR
STRONGER WINDS AROUND MENOMINEE THIS EVENING AS HEATHLY PRES FALLS
OF 5-8MB/3HR APPROACH FROM THE SW...SO THERE MAY BE 2-3HRS OF
CONSIDERABLE BLSN IN THAT AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
FOCUS CERTAINLY ON THE FIRST 12-18 HOURS OF THE FORECAST STARTING
12Z WED AS A WINTER STORM IS EXITING THE REGION.
BY 12Z WED MODELS SHOW A STRONG UPPER WAVE OVER THE WRN CWA AND S
INTO IA. AT THE SFC...AN ELONGATED LOW WILL STRETCH FROM THE IL/WI
BORDER TO NRN LOWER MI. SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON THE TRACK
OF THE MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE WED MORNING/AFTERNOON...BUT MOST MODELS
FAVOR KEEPING THE BEST SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO THE SE
OF THE AREA...THE 00Z/01 NAM BEING THE EXCEPTION WITH BRINGING THAT
PRECIP OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN CWA. EVEN IF THE BEST PRECIP STAYS
SE...MOST OF UPPER MI WILL BE SEEING SNOW WED MORNING...BUT THE BEST
AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER THE NCENTRAL AND FAR W...WHERE CYCLONIC
CURVATURE TO LOW LEVEL WINDS FAVORS THESE AREAS FOR LAKE/UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT (NE-NNE FLOW). WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TO THE N BY 18Z AS
850MB TEMPS DROP TO -10C TO -12C. SHOULD SEE SOME BOOST TO LAKE
ENHANCED AREAS BETWEEN 12Z AND 21Z AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES SE OF THE
AREA. BY 00Z THU...WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NW-NNW WITH 850MB TEMPS
DOWN TO -12C TO -15C...FAVORING A TRANSITION IN SNOWBELTS THROUGH THE
DAY. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD DIMINISH WED EVENING THROUGH WED NIGHT AS A
SFC RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE W. GENERALLY HAVE AN ADDITIONAL 2-4
INCHES NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR BETWEEN 12Z WED AND 06Z THU...WITH AROUND 5
INCHES OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS.
ANOTHER CRITICAL ELEMENT WILL BE WINDS...WHICH WILL BE GUSTING TO 35
MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND 20-25 MPH INLAND. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE NE-NNE TO START THE DAY...GRADUALLY BACKING TO THE NW BY THE END
OF THE DAY. HARDEST HIT AREAS FOR BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE
LAKESHORE AREAS OF THE KEWEENAW AND NCENTRAL UPPER MI...ESPECIALLY
M-28 BETWEEN MARQUETTE AND MUNISING.
FOR THU THROUGH MON...LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE PATTERN STICKS AROUND
WITH SOME WEAK CLIPPERS AND SURGES OF COLDER AIR. NOTHING STICKS OUT
AS PARTICULARLY SIGNIFICANT AT THIS POINT...SO WILL RUN WITH
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE AND FOCUS ON SHORTER TERM SYSTEM
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
VFR TO MVFR CIGS THIS AFTN AT THE TAF SITES WL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE 21Z-24Z TIME PERIOD AS A BAND OF SN MOVES
INTO UPR MI IN ADVANCE OF A VIGOROUS LO PRES MOVING NE TOWARD THE
GREAT LKS. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE
NE...CREATING BLSN AT TIMES. THE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WL THEN PREVAIL
THRU THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE
COULD BE SOME FZDZ AT SAW FOR A TIME LATE TNGT INTO WED WITH
SOMEWHAT HIER VSBYS...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE IFR/LIFR RANGE
EVEN IF THIS OCCURS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
INITIAL LIGHT WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE THIS
AFTN/EVENING AS LOW PRES TRACKS NE FROM THE SRN PLAINS...EVENTUALLY
CROSSING FAR NRN LWR MI LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING. FREQUENT GALE
FORCE GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NCNTL AND ADJACENT WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR...SO GALE WARNING REMAINS UP IN THAT AREA FOR LATE EVENING
THRU MID MORNING WED. AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS THU...THE NEXT
PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS WILL ARRIVE FRI/SAT WITH WINDS OF
20-30KT...STRONGEST OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON TO
4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ002-004>007-009-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ001-003-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ013-014.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ010-011.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ012.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1001 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
BASED ON EXPECTED SN TOTALS APRCHG 10 INCHES OVER GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON
COUNTIES ON CYC SIDE OF UPR LO TRACK...WHICH APPEARS TO BE TRENDING
FARTHER TO THE W...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LK ENHANCEMENT WITH
CYC UPSLOPE NLY FLOW LATE TNGT/WED...OPTED TO UPGRADE WINTER WX ADVY
TO WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THOSE 2 COUNTIES AND EXTEND THE HEADLINE
TO 21Z WED...WHEN DEEPER MSTR IS FCST TO EXIT THE WRN CWA. THESE NEW
HEADLINES MATCH WELL WITH THOSE ISSUED BY SURROUNDING OFFICES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
MOVING OUT OVER KS...WHILE AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS ORGANIZING OVER
SCNTRL KS. 00Z RAOBS SHOWED A STRONG SRLY FLOW DEVELOPING OFF THE
WRN GULF OF MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO THE HEIGHT FALLS PUSHING OUT OVER
THE SRN PLAINS...AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PCPN INCREASING OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS WITH SNOW SPREADING OUT ACROSS NEBRASKA/IA.
CONSENSUS OF THE ARRAY OF 00Z MODEL RUNS IS FOR SFC LOW PRES TO
TRACK NE ACROSS FAR NRN LWR MI WHICH IS ESSENTIALLY RIGHT ALONG THE
MULTI DAY MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS UTILIZED FOR THE FCST OF THIS STORM
SYSTEM DURING THE LATTER PART OF LAST WEEK. WHILE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CURRENTLY DEPICTS AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING FEATURE...MODELS
HAVE BEEN AND CONTINUE TO POINT TO A FAST MOVING SYSTEM WITH THE
LACK OF AN ORGANIZED MID LEVEL LOW AS IT MOVES THRU THE UPPER LAKES.
OBVIOUSLY...FAST MOVEMENT LIMITS DURATION OF MDT/HVY SNOW. IN
ADDITION...THE LACK OF AN ORGANIZED MID LEVEL CENTER MEANS THIS
SYSTEM WON`T HAVE A SIGNIFICANT/ORGANIZED DEFORMATION PCPN SHIELD NW
OF THE LOW TRACK THAT WOULD LEAD TO PROLONGED MDT/HVY SNOW. AS A
RESULT...THIS WILL BASICALLY BE AN AVG KIND OF WINTER STORM FOR
UPPER MI WITH MUCH OF THE AREA REACHING WARNING CRITERIA...BUT
CERTAINLY NOT A BLOCKBUSTER STORM. HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS SHOULD BE IN
NCNTRL UPPER MI W OF MARQUETTE WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT/UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT OCCURS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
A NUMBER OF FACTORS INDICATE SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE FOR ABOUT A 2 TO 4HR PERIOD LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING.
COUPLING OF 2 UPPER JET STREAKS...LEFT EXIT OF ONE 150+KT JET
STREAKING TOWARD LWR MI AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A SECOND 140+KT
JET ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC...WILL LEAD TO STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE. DOWN TOWARD THE LOWER LEVELS...THERE IS A STRONG FGEN
RESPONSE IN ADDITION TO STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS NOTED ON 290K
SFC (ROUGHLY 700-750MB). ALONG WITH RATHER IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER
FORCING PER QVECTORS...ALL THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A ROUGHLY A 2-4HR
PERIOD OF MDT TO HVY SNOW LIFTING N ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATE THIS
AFTN AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY CNTRL AND E. HOWEVER...SINCE STRONGER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEGINS TO BE SHUNTED E WITH TIME AS SHORTWAVE
WEAKENS...SNOWFALL RATES WHICH WILL BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE OVER THE
PLAINS STATES WILL VERY LIKELY BE FALLING OFF AS THE SNOW SHIELD
LIFTS INTO UPPER MI. 00Z MODEL RUNS SUGGEST MID LEVEL DRYING WILL
SURGE INTO THE SCNTRL/ERN FCST AREA LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT BEHIND
THE MDT/HVY SNOW BAND. AS A RESULT...HAVE INTRODUCED -FZDZ IN THAT
AREA. OVERALL...MODELS SUGGEST SOMEWHAT LOWER SNOW TO WATER
RATIOS...AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME -FZDZ SCNTRL AND E...SNOW
TOTALS HAVE BEEN LOWERED A LITTLE OVER THE SE AND ERN FCST AREA.
SREF TRENDS HAVE ALSO SHOWN INCREASING SPREAD AND OVERALL LOWER SNOW
TOTALS OVER THE ERN FCST AREA...WITH THE MEAN RIGHT NEAR THE SUB 20
TO 1 SNOW TO WATER RATIO WARNING CRITERIA THRESHOLD OF 6IN/12HR.
MEANWHILE...THE CNTRL AND WRN FCST AREA SHOW A BETTER POTENTIAL OF
REACHING WARNING CRITERIA. GIVEN THE REGIONAL/GLOBAL CANADIAN MODELS
INSISTENCE ON A LOWER QPF EVENT OVERALL AND LATEST RAP MODEL RUN
INDICATING HEAVIER QPF LATE AFTN/EVENING PASSING TO THE E OF THE WRN
FCST AREA...WILL HOLD OFF ON CONVERTING THE WRN ADVY AREA TO A
WARNING. THAT SAID...LAKE ENHANCEMENT/UPSLOPE COMPONENT FOR WRN
GOGEBIC AND WRN ONTONAGON COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING
PUTS THAT AREA AT GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR REACHING WARNING CRITERIA.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR UPCOMING MODEL RUNS FOR A CONSISTENT SIGNAL TO
SEE IF AN UPGRADE TO WARNING WILL BE NEEDED.
IN THE END...EXPECT THE GREATEST SNOW TOTALS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
FROM AROUND NEGAUNEE/ISHPEMING INTO THE HURON MOUNTAINS WHERE
UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCEMENT COMPONENT WILL ADD AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES
TO SYNOPTIC SNOW. 850MB TEMPS ARE JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT...SO WOULD CERTAINLY LIKE TO SEE LOWER 850MB TEMPS TO
HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN BUMPING UP TOTALS SIGNIFICANTLY. ALL HIGH
RES GUIDANCE PEG THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH A NICE ENHANCEMENT OF
QPF...BUT HAVE TAKEN A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO BUMPING UP TOTALS.
FOR NOW...OFFICIAL FCST WILL SHOW TOTALS OF 12-14 INCHES FROM
NEGAUNEE/ISHPEMING THRU THE HURON MTNS.
FINALLY...AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES...THERE MAY NOT BE
MUCH BLSN SINCE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING. BLSN WILL BE MOST SIGNIFICANT
CLOSE TO THE GREAT LAKES. SYNOPTIC SETUP IS ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE FOR
STRONGER WINDS AROUND MENOMINEE THIS EVENING AS HEATHLY PRES FALLS
OF 5-8MB/3HR APPROACH FROM THE SW...SO THERE MAY BE 2-3HRS OF
CONSIDERABLE BLSN IN THAT AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
FOCUS CERTAINLY ON THE FIRST 12-18 HOURS OF THE FORECAST STARTING
12Z WED AS A WINTER STORM IS EXITING THE REGION.
BY 12Z WED MODELS SHOW A STRONG UPPER WAVE OVER THE WRN CWA AND S
INTO IA. AT THE SFC...AN ELONGATED LOW WILL STRETCH FROM THE IL/WI
BORDER TO NRN LOWER MI. SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON THE TRACK
OF THE MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE WED MORNING/AFTERNOON...BUT MOST MODELS
FAVOR KEEPING THE BEST SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO THE SE
OF THE AREA...THE 00Z/01 NAM BEING THE EXCEPTION WITH BRINGING THAT
PRECIP OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN CWA. EVEN IF THE BEST PRECIP STAYS
SE...MOST OF UPPER MI WILL BE SEEING SNOW WED MORNING...BUT THE BEST
AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER THE NCENTRAL AND FAR W...WHERE CYCLONIC
CURVATURE TO LOW LEVEL WINDS FAVORS THESE AREAS FOR LAKE/UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT (NE-NNE FLOW). WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TO THE N BY 18Z AS
850MB TEMPS DROP TO -10C TO -12C. SHOULD SEE SOME BOOST TO LAKE
ENHANCED AREAS BETWEEN 12Z AND 21Z AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES SE OF THE
AREA. BY 00Z THU...WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NW-NNW WITH 850MB TEMPS
DOWN TO -12C TO -15C...FAVORING A TRANSITION IN SNOWBELTS THROUGH THE
DAY. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD DIMINISH WED EVENING THROUGH WED NIGHT AS A
SFC RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE W. GENERALLY HAVE AN ADDITIONAL 2-4
INCHES NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR BETWEEN 12Z WED AND 06Z THU...WITH AROUND 5
INCHES OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS.
ANOTHER CRITICAL ELEMENT WILL BE WINDS...WHICH WILL BE GUSTING TO 35
MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND 20-25 MPH INLAND. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE NE-NNE TO START THE DAY...GRADUALLY BACKING TO THE NW BY THE END
OF THE DAY. HARDEST HIT AREAS FOR BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE
LAKESHORE AREAS OF THE KEWEENAW AND NCENTRAL UPPER MI...ESPECIALLY
M-28 BETWEEN MARQUETTE AND MUNISING.
FOR THU THROUGH MON...LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE PATTERN STICKS AROUND
WITH SOME WEAK CLIPPERS AND SURGES OF COLDER AIR. NOTHING STICKS OUT
AS PARTICULARLY SIGNIFICANT AT THIS POINT...SO WILL RUN WITH
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE AND FOCUS ON SHORTER TERM SYSTEM
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
VFR CIGS AT KSAW AND CIGS VARYING BTWN MVFR AND VFR AT KIWD/KCMX
WILL FALL TO PREVAILING MVFR EARLY THIS AFTN IN ADVANCE OF A WINTER
STORM APPROACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AS SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTN...CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY FALL TO IFR AT
ALL TERMINALS...THEN VARY BTWN LIFR AND IFR THRU TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
ALSO BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NE...CREATING BLSN AT TIMES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
INITIAL LIGHT WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE THIS
AFTN/EVENING AS LOW PRES TRACKS NE FROM THE SRN PLAINS...EVENTUALLY
CROSSING FAR NRN LWR MI LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING. FREQUENT GALE
FORCE GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NCNTL AND ADJACENT WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR...SO GALE WARNING REMAINS UP IN THAT AREA FOR LATE EVENING
THRU MID MORNING WED. AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS THU...THE NEXT
PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS WILL ARRIVE FRI/SAT WITH WINDS OF
20-30KT...STRONGEST OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON TO
4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ002-004>007-009-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ001-003-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ013-014.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ010-011.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ012.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
639 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
MOVING OUT OVER KS...WHILE AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS ORGANIZING OVER
SCNTRL KS. 00Z RAOBS SHOWED A STRONG SRLY FLOW DEVELOPING OFF THE
WRN GULF OF MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO THE HEIGHT FALLS PUSHING OUT OVER
THE SRN PLAINS...AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PCPN INCREASING OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS WITH SNOW SPREADING OUT ACROSS NEBRASKA/IA.
CONSENSUS OF THE ARRAY OF 00Z MODEL RUNS IS FOR SFC LOW PRES TO
TRACK NE ACROSS FAR NRN LWR MI WHICH IS ESSENTIALLY RIGHT ALONG THE
MULTI DAY MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS UTILIZED FOR THE FCST OF THIS STORM
SYSTEM DURING THE LATTER PART OF LAST WEEK. WHILE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CURRENTLY DEPICTS AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING FEATURE...MODELS
HAVE BEEN AND CONTINUE TO POINT TO A FAST MOVING SYSTEM WITH THE
LACK OF AN ORGANIZED MID LEVEL LOW AS IT MOVES THRU THE UPPER LAKES.
OBVIOUSLY...FAST MOVEMENT LIMITS DURATION OF MDT/HVY SNOW. IN
ADDITION...THE LACK OF AN ORGANIZED MID LEVEL CENTER MEANS THIS
SYSTEM WON`T HAVE A SIGNIFICANT/ORGANIZED DEFORMATION PCPN SHIELD NW
OF THE LOW TRACK THAT WOULD LEAD TO PROLONGED MDT/HVY SNOW. AS A
RESULT...THIS WILL BASICALLY BE AN AVG KIND OF WINTER STORM FOR
UPPER MI WITH MUCH OF THE AREA REACHING WARNING CRITERIA...BUT
CERTAINLY NOT A BLOCKBUSTER STORM. HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS SHOULD BE IN
NCNTRL UPPER MI W OF MARQUETTE WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT/UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT OCCURS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
A NUMBER OF FACTORS INDICATE SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE FOR ABOUT A 2 TO 4HR PERIOD LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING.
COUPLING OF 2 UPPER JET STREAKS...LEFT EXIT OF ONE 150+KT JET
STREAKING TOWARD LWR MI AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A SECOND 140+KT
JET ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC...WILL LEAD TO STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE. DOWN TOWARD THE LOWER LEVELS...THERE IS A STRONG FGEN
RESPONSE IN ADDITION TO STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS NOTED ON 290K
SFC (ROUGHLY 700-750MB). ALONG WITH RATHER IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER
FORCING PER QVECTORS...ALL THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A ROUGHLY A 2-4HR
PERIOD OF MDT TO HVY SNOW LIFTING N ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATE THIS
AFTN AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY CNTRL AND E. HOWEVER...SINCE STRONGER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEGINS TO BE SHUNTED E WITH TIME AS SHORTWAVE
WEAKENS...SNOWFALL RATES WHICH WILL BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE OVER THE
PLAINS STATES WILL VERY LIKELY BE FALLING OFF AS THE SNOW SHIELD
LIFTS INTO UPPER MI. 00Z MODEL RUNS SUGGEST MID LEVEL DRYING WILL
SURGE INTO THE SCNTRL/ERN FCST AREA LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT BEHIND
THE MDT/HVY SNOW BAND. AS A RESULT...HAVE INTRODUCED -FZDZ IN THAT
AREA. OVERALL...MODELS SUGGEST SOMEWHAT LOWER SNOW TO WATER
RATIOS...AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME -FZDZ SCNTRL AND E...SNOW
TOTALS HAVE BEEN LOWERED A LITTLE OVER THE SE AND ERN FCST AREA.
SREF TRENDS HAVE ALSO SHOWN INCREASING SPREAD AND OVERALL LOWER SNOW
TOTALS OVER THE ERN FCST AREA...WITH THE MEAN RIGHT NEAR THE SUB 20
TO 1 SNOW TO WATER RATIO WARNING CRITERIA THRESHOLD OF 6IN/12HR.
MEANWHILE...THE CNTRL AND WRN FCST AREA SHOW A BETTER POTENTIAL OF
REACHING WARNING CRITERIA. GIVEN THE REGIONAL/GLOBAL CANADIAN MODELS
INSISTENCE ON A LOWER QPF EVENT OVERALL AND LATEST RAP MODEL RUN
INDICATING HEAVIER QPF LATE AFTN/EVENING PASSING TO THE E OF THE WRN
FCST AREA...WILL HOLD OFF ON CONVERTING THE WRN ADVY AREA TO A
WARNING. THAT SAID...LAKE ENHANCEMENT/UPSLOPE COMPONENT FOR WRN
GOGEBIC AND WRN ONTONAGON COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING
PUTS THAT AREA AT GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR REACHING WARNING CRITERIA.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR UPCOMING MODEL RUNS FOR A CONSISTENT SIGNAL TO
SEE IF AN UPGRADE TO WARNING WILL BE NEEDED.
IN THE END...EXPECT THE GREATEST SNOW TOTALS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
FROM AROUND NEGAUNEE/ISHPEMING INTO THE HURON MOUNTAINS WHERE
UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCEMENT COMPONENT WILL ADD AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES
TO SYNOPTIC SNOW. 850MB TEMPS ARE JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT...SO WOULD CERTAINLY LIKE TO SEE LOWER 850MB TEMPS TO
HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN BUMPING UP TOTALS SIGNIFICANTLY. ALL HIGH
RES GUIDANCE PEG THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH A NICE ENHANCEMENT OF
QPF...BUT HAVE TAKEN A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO BUMPING UP TOTALS.
FOR NOW...OFFICIAL FCST WILL SHOW TOTALS OF 12-14 INCHES FROM
NEGAUNEE/ISHPEMING THRU THE HURON MTNS.
FINALLY...AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES...THERE MAY NOT BE
MUCH BLSN SINCE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING. BLSN WILL BE MOST SIGNIFICANT
CLOSE TO THE GREAT LAKES. SYNOPTIC SETUP IS ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE FOR
STRONGER WINDS AROUND MENOMINEE THIS EVENING AS HEATHLY PRES FALLS
OF 5-8MB/3HR APPROACH FROM THE SW...SO THERE MAY BE 2-3HRS OF
CONSIDERABLE BLSN IN THAT AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
FOCUS CERTAINLY ON THE FIRST 12-18 HOURS OF THE FORECAST STARTING
12Z WED AS A WINTER STORM IS EXITING THE REGION.
BY 12Z WED MODELS SHOW A STRONG UPPER WAVE OVER THE WRN CWA AND S
INTO IA. AT THE SFC...AN ELONGATED LOW WILL STRETCH FROM THE IL/WI
BORDER TO NRN LOWER MI. SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON THE TRACK
OF THE MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE WED MORNING/AFTERNOON...BUT MOST MODELS
FAVOR KEEPING THE BEST SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO THE SE
OF THE AREA...THE 00Z/01 NAM BEING THE EXCEPTION WITH BRINGING THAT
PRECIP OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN CWA. EVEN IF THE BEST PRECIP STAYS
SE...MOST OF UPPER MI WILL BE SEEING SNOW WED MORNING...BUT THE BEST
AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER THE NCENTRAL AND FAR W...WHERE CYCLONIC
CURVATURE TO LOW LEVEL WINDS FAVORS THESE AREAS FOR LAKE/UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT (NE-NNE FLOW). WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TO THE N BY 18Z AS
850MB TEMPS DROP TO -10C TO -12C. SHOULD SEE SOME BOOST TO LAKE
ENHANCED AREAS BETWEEN 12Z AND 21Z AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES SE OF THE
AREA. BY 00Z THU...WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NW-NNW WITH 850MB TEMPS
DOWN TO -12C TO -15C...FAVORING A TRANSITION IN SNOWBELTS THROUGH THE
DAY. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD DIMINISH WED EVENING THROUGH WED NIGHT AS A
SFC RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE W. GENERALLY HAVE AN ADDITIONAL 2-4
INCHES NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR BETWEEN 12Z WED AND 06Z THU...WITH AROUND 5
INCHES OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS.
ANOTHER CRITICAL ELEMENT WILL BE WINDS...WHICH WILL BE GUSTING TO 35
MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND 20-25 MPH INLAND. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE NE-NNE TO START THE DAY...GRADUALLY BACKING TO THE NW BY THE END
OF THE DAY. HARDEST HIT AREAS FOR BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE
LAKESHORE AREAS OF THE KEWEENAW AND NCENTRAL UPPER MI...ESPECIALLY
M-28 BETWEEN MARQUETTE AND MUNISING.
FOR THU THROUGH MON...LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE PATTERN STICKS AROUND
WITH SOME WEAK CLIPPERS AND SURGES OF COLDER AIR. NOTHING STICKS OUT
AS PARTICULARLY SIGNIFICANT AT THIS POINT...SO WILL RUN WITH
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE AND FOCUS ON SHORTER TERM SYSTEM
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
VFR CIGS AT KSAW AND CIGS VARYING BTWN MVFR AND VFR AT KIWD/KCMX
WILL FALL TO PREVAILING MVFR EARLY THIS AFTN IN ADVANCE OF A WINTER
STORM APPROACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AS SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTN...CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY FALL TO IFR AT
ALL TERMINALS...THEN VARY BTWN LIFR AND IFR THRU TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
ALSO BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NE...CREATING BLSN AT TIMES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
INITIAL LIGHT WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE THIS
AFTN/EVENING AS LOW PRES TRACKS NE FROM THE SRN PLAINS...EVENTUALLY
CROSSING FAR NRN LWR MI LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING. FREQUENT GALE
FORCE GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NCNTL AND ADJACENT WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR...SO GALE WARNING REMAINS UP IN THAT AREA FOR LATE EVENING
THRU MID MORNING WED. AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS THU...THE NEXT
PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS WILL ARRIVE FRI/SAT WITH WINDS OF
20-30KT...STRONGEST OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ004>007-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
TO 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ001>003-009-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ013-014.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ010-011.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ012.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
533 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
MOVING OUT OVER KS...WHILE AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS ORGANIZING OVER
SCNTRL KS. 00Z RAOBS SHOWED A STRONG SRLY FLOW DEVELOPING OFF THE
WRN GULF OF MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO THE HEIGHT FALLS PUSHING OUT OVER
THE SRN PLAINS...AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PCPN INCREASING OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS WITH SNOW SPREADING OUT ACROSS NEBRASKA/IA.
CONSENSUS OF THE ARRAY OF 00Z MODEL RUNS IS FOR SFC LOW PRES TO
TRACK NE ACROSS FAR NRN LWR MI WHICH IS ESSENTIALLY RIGHT ALONG THE
MULTI DAY MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS UTILIZED FOR THE FCST OF THIS STORM
SYSTEM DURING THE LATTER PART OF LAST WEEK. WHILE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CURRENTLY DEPICTS AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING FEATURE...MODELS
HAVE BEEN AND CONTINUE TO POINT TO A FAST MOVING SYSTEM WITH THE
LACK OF AN ORGANIZED MID LEVEL LOW AS IT MOVES THRU THE UPPER LAKES.
OBVIOUSLY...FAST MOVEMENT LIMITS DURATION OF MDT/HVY SNOW. IN
ADDITION...THE LACK OF AN ORGANIZED MID LEVEL CENTER MEANS THIS
SYSTEM WON`T HAVE A SIGNIFICANT/ORGANIZED DEFORMATION PCPN SHIELD NW
OF THE LOW TRACK THAT WOULD LEAD TO PROLONGED MDT/HVY SNOW. AS A
RESULT...THIS WILL BASICALLY BE AN AVG KIND OF WINTER STORM FOR
UPPER MI WITH MUCH OF THE AREA REACHING WARNING CRITERIA...BUT
CERTAINLY NOT A BLOCKBUSTER STORM. HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS SHOULD BE IN
NCNTRL UPPER MI W OF MARQUETTE WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT/UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT OCCURS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
A NUMBER OF FACTORS INDICATE SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE FOR ABOUT A 2 TO 4HR PERIOD LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING.
COUPLING OF 2 UPPER JET STREAKS...LEFT EXIT OF ONE 150+KT JET
STREAKING TOWARD LWR MI AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A SECOND 140+KT
JET ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC...WILL LEAD TO STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE. DOWN TOWARD THE LOWER LEVELS...THERE IS A STRONG FGEN
RESPONSE IN ADDITION TO STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS NOTED ON 290K
SFC (ROUGHLY 700-750MB). ALONG WITH RATHER IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER
FORCING PER QVECTORS...ALL THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A ROUGHLY A 2-4HR
PERIOD OF MDT TO HVY SNOW LIFTING N ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATE THIS
AFTN AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY CNTRL AND E. HOWEVER...SINCE STRONGER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEGINS TO BE SHUNTED E WITH TIME AS SHORTWAVE
WEAKENS...SNOWFALL RATES WHICH WILL BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE OVER THE
PLAINS STATES WILL VERY LIKELY BE FALLING OFF AS THE SNOW SHIELD
LIFTS INTO UPPER MI. 00Z MODEL RUNS SUGGEST MID LEVEL DRYING WILL
SURGE INTO THE SCNTRL/ERN FCST AREA LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT BEHIND
THE MDT/HVY SNOW BAND. AS A RESULT...HAVE INTRODUCED -FZDZ IN THAT
AREA. OVERALL...MODELS SUGGEST SOMEWHAT LOWER SNOW TO WATER
RATIOS...AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME -FZDZ SCNTRL AND E...SNOW
TOTALS HAVE BEEN LOWERED A LITTLE OVER THE SE AND ERN FCST AREA.
SREF TRENDS HAVE ALSO SHOWN INCREASING SPREAD AND OVERALL LOWER SNOW
TOTALS OVER THE ERN FCST AREA...WITH THE MEAN RIGHT NEAR THE SUB 20
TO 1 SNOW TO WATER RATIO WARNING CRITERIA THRESHOLD OF 6IN/12HR.
MEANWHILE...THE CNTRL AND WRN FCST AREA SHOW A BETTER POTENTIAL OF
REACHING WARNING CRITERIA. GIVEN THE REGIONAL/GLOBAL CANADIAN MODELS
INSISTENCE ON A LOWER QPF EVENT OVERALL AND LATEST RAP MODEL RUN
INDICATING HEAVIER QPF LATE AFTN/EVENING PASSING TO THE E OF THE WRN
FCST AREA...WILL HOLD OFF ON CONVERTING THE WRN ADVY AREA TO A
WARNING. THAT SAID...LAKE ENHANCEMENT/UPSLOPE COMPONENT FOR WRN
GOGEBIC AND WRN ONTONAGON COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING
PUTS THAT AREA AT GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR REACHING WARNING CRITERIA.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR UPCOMING MODEL RUNS FOR A CONSISTENT SIGNAL TO
SEE IF AN UPGRADE TO WARNING WILL BE NEEDED.
IN THE END...EXPECT THE GREATEST SNOW TOTALS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
FROM AROUND NEGAUNEE/ISHPEMING INTO THE HURON MOUNTAINS WHERE
UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCEMENT COMPONENT WILL ADD AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES
TO SYNOPTIC SNOW. 850MB TEMPS ARE JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT...SO WOULD CERTAINLY LIKE TO SEE LOWER 850MB TEMPS TO
HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN BUMPING UP TOTALS SIGNIFICANTLY. ALL HIGH
RES GUIDANCE PEG THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH A NICE ENHANCEMENT OF
QPF...BUT HAVE TAKEN A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO BUMPING UP TOTALS.
FOR NOW...OFFICIAL FCST WILL SHOW TOTALS OF 12-14 INCHES FROM
NEGAUNEE/ISHPEMING THRU THE HURON MTNS.
FINALLY...AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES...THERE MAY NOT BE
MUCH BLSN SINCE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING. BLSN WILL BE MOST SIGNIFICANT
CLOSE TO THE GREAT LAKES. SYNOPTIC SETUP IS ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE FOR
STRONGER WINDS AROUND MENOMINEE THIS EVENING AS HEATHLY PRES FALLS
OF 5-8MB/3HR APPROACH FROM THE SW...SO THERE MAY BE 2-3HRS OF
CONSIDERABLE BLSN IN THAT AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
FOCUS CERTAINLY ON THE FIRST 12-18 HOURS OF THE FORECAST STARTING
12Z WED AS A WINTER STORM IS EXITING THE REGION.
BY 12Z WED MODELS SHOW A STRONG UPPER WAVE OVER THE WRN CWA AND S
INTO IA. AT THE SFC...AN ELONGATED LOW WILL STRETCH FROM THE IL/WI
BORDER TO NRN LOWER MI. SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON THE TRACK
OF THE MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE WED MORNING/AFTERNOON...BUT MOST MODELS
FAVOR KEEPING THE BEST SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO THE SE
OF THE AREA...THE 00Z/01 NAM BEING THE EXCEPTION WITH BRINGING THAT
PRECIP OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN CWA. EVEN IF THE BEST PRECIP STAYS
SE...MOST OF UPPER MI WILL BE SEEING SNOW WED MORNING...BUT THE BEST
AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER THE NCENTRAL AND FAR W...WHERE CYCLONIC
CURVATURE TO LOW LEVEL WINDS FAVORS THESE AREAS FOR LAKE/UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT (NE-NNE FLOW). WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TO THE N BY 18Z AS
850MB TEMPS DROP TO -10C TO -12C. SHOULD SEE SOME BOOST TO LAKE
ENHANCED AREAS BETWEEN 12Z AND 21Z AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES SE OF THE
AREA. BY 00Z THU...WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NW-NNW WITH 850MB TEMPS
DOWN TO -12C TO -15C...FAVORING A TRANSITION IN SNOWBELTS THROUGH THE
DAY. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD DIMINISH WED EVENING THROUGH WED NIGHT AS A
SFC RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE W. GENERALLY HAVE AN ADDITIONAL 2-4
INCHES NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR BETWEEN 12Z WED AND 06Z THU...WITH AROUND 5
INCHES OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS.
ANOTHER CRITICAL ELEMENT WILL BE WINDS...WHICH WILL BE GUSTING TO 35
MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND 20-25 MPH INLAND. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE NE-NNE TO START THE DAY...GRADUALLY BACKING TO THE NW BY THE END
OF THE DAY. HARDEST HIT AREAS FOR BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE
LAKESHORE AREAS OF THE KEWEENAW AND NCENTRAL UPPER MI...ESPECIALLY
M-28 BETWEEN MARQUETTE AND MUNISING.
FOR THU THROUGH MON...LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE PATTERN STICKS AROUND
WITH SOME WEAK CLIPPERS AND SURGES OF COLDER AIR. NOTHING STICKS OUT
AS PARTICULARLY SIGNIFICANT AT THIS POINT...SO WILL RUN WITH
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE AND FOCUS ON SHORTER TERM SYSTEM
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER PENINSULA
THROUGH THE NIGHT FAVORING CIGS INTO THE MVFR RANGE TOWARD DAYBREAK.
SOME FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP AT CMX AND SAW LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNING BUT SINCE VSBY WOULD NOT LIKELY DROP BLO MVFR AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW...FOG WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF. THE NEXT PERIOD
OF LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL MOVE IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
IFR CIG/VSBY IN SNOW WITH AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO DROP TO LIFR VSBY AT SAW DURING THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY AT
IWD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
INITIAL LIGHT WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE THIS
AFTN/EVENING AS LOW PRES TRACKS NE FROM THE SRN PLAINS...EVENTUALLY
CROSSING FAR NRN LWR MI LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING. FREQUENT GALE
FORCE GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NCNTL AND ADJACENT WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR...SO GALE WARNING REMAINS UP IN THAT AREA FOR LATE EVENING
THRU MID MORNING WED. AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS THU...THE NEXT
PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS WILL ARRIVE FRI/SAT WITH WINDS OF
20-30KT...STRONGEST OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ004>007-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
TO 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ001>003-009-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ013-014.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ010-011.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ012.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1158 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1015 AM CST Tue Feb 2 2016
Thin line of showers and isolated thunderstorms will be moving
through the southern part of the CWA over the next 2-3 hours ahead
of the occluded front. Latest runs of the RAP back up this
thinking in showing that low level moisture convergence will sweep
across the area from west to east late this morning and early this
afternoon. Otherwise...rest of the forecast looks on track.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 235 AM CST Tue Feb 2 2016
Showers and a few thunderstorms were moving north-northeastward
through western MO, just west of our forecast area early this
morning. This activity was in the vicinity of a strong southerly
low level jet and ahead of an upper level low and associated
surface low over southwest KS. The upper level low will move
northeastward into southeast Nebraska and western Iowa by 00z
Wednesday while the surface low moves into northwest MO. Showers
and scattered thunderstorms will sweep eastward through our
forecast area today as depicted by the latest HRRR run. The
models were depicting very strong 850 mb warm air advection,
theta-e advection, and moisture convergence across much of our
area this morning into the afternoon on the nose of the strong
southerly low level jet as it translates eastward through our
region. Best potential for any severe storms will be across parts
of southeast MO and southwest IL this afternoon where the best
instability will be. The primary threat will be damaging winds.
The precipitation should shut off quickly this afternoon over
central MO as the dry slot moves northeastward into our area with
partial clearing. Strong and gusty surface winds can be expected
this morning into the afternoon, close to wind advisory criteria
due to the relatively tight surface pressure gradient and momentum
transfer to the surface from the strong low level jet. Despite the
cloud cover and precipitation, highs will be well above normal
today and warmer than yesterday.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 235 AM CST Tue Feb 2 2016
The precipitation should shift east of our forecast area this
evening with colder air filtering eastward into our area south and
southwest of the surface and upper level low. Wrap-around type
low level cloudiness will advect southeastward into our area
tonight with light snow or flurries possible, mainly across
northeast MO late tonight. Little if any accumulation is expected.
Much colder temperatures can be expected late tonight and
Wednesday with highs on Wednesday close to seasonal normals for
early February. Low level cloudiness will keep highs down on
Wednesday and there may be a few flurries. Winds will also be
strong and gusty with a tight surface pressure gradient between
the surface low moving northeastward through the Great Lakes
region and the surface ridge building eastward into our area from
the Plains. Tranquil and dry weather can be expected for the later
portion of the work week with temperatures close to seasonal
normals, then a little warmer for the weekend. A deepening upper
level trough over the northern Plains will send a cold front
southeastward through our area Sunday night. Both the GFS and
ECMWF models depict a cold pattern for the early portion of the
next work week with a deep upper level trough extending from the
Great Lakes into our area, along with persistent northwesterly
surface winds, and cold 850 mb temperatures.
GKS
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM CST Tue Feb 2 2016
A warm front has moved north to near the St. Louis area airports
with IFR conditions in fog and ceilings reported at the terminals.
Farther north at KUIN, similar conditions are reported. A thin
line of showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently moving
through St. Louis and will move out of these terminals in the next
hour or two. A cold front over western Missouri will continue to
move east and will bring VFR conditions to all of the terminals by
late afternoon. VFR conditions are expected to continue into the
overnight before low clouds move in from the northwest at KUIN and
KCOU around 09Z and the St. Louis metro TAF sites on Wednesday
morning. Some flurries are possible with these MVFR ceilings.
Specifics for KSTL: Expect the current LIFR conditions with rain
to improve in the next few hours as a cold front moves through the
terminal from the west. Then VFR conditions area expected from
22Z into late Wednesday morning before additional MVFR clouds move
into the area from the northwest.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1015 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1015 AM CST Tue Feb 2 2016
Thin line of showers and isolated thunderstorms will be moving
through the southern part of the CWA over the next 2-3 hours ahead
of the occluded front. Latest runs of the RAP back up this
thinking in showing that low level moisture convergence will sweep
across the area from west to east late this morning and early this
afternoon. Otherwise...rest of the forecast looks on track.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 235 AM CST Tue Feb 2 2016
Showers and a few thunderstorms were moving north-northeastward
through western MO, just west of our forecast area early this
morning. This activity was in the vicinity of a strong southerly
low level jet and ahead of an upper level low and associated
surface low over southwest KS. The upper level low will move
northeastward into southeast Nebraska and western Iowa by 00z
Wednesday while the surface low moves into northwest MO. Showers
and scattered thunderstorms will sweep eastward through our
forecast area today as depicted by the latest HRRR run. The
models were depicting very strong 850 mb warm air advection,
theta-e advecton, and moisture convergence across much of our area
this morning into the afternoon on the nose of the strong
southerly low level jet as it translates eastward through our
region. Best potential for any severe storms will be across parts
of southeast MO and southwest IL this afternoon where the best
instability will be. The primary threat will be damaging winds.
The precipitation should shut off quickly this afternoon over
central MO as the dry slot moves northeastward into our area with
partial clearing. Strong and gusty surface winds can be expected
this morning into the afternoon, close to wind advisory criteria
due to the relatively tight surface pressure gradient and momentum
transfer to the surface from the strong low level jet. Despite the
cloud cover and precipitation, highs will be well above normal
today and warmer than yesterday.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 235 AM CST Tue Feb 2 2016
The precipitation should shift east of our forecast area this
evening with colder air filtering eastward into our area south and
southwest of the surface and upper level low. Wrap-around type
low level cloudiness will advect southeastward into our area
tonight with light snow or flurries possible, mainly across
northeast MO late tonight. Little if any accumulation is expected.
Much colder temperatures can be expected late tonight and
Wednesday with highs on Wednesday close to seasonal normals for
early February. Low level cloudiness will keep highs down on
Wednesday and there may be a few flurries. Winds will also be
strong and gusty with a tight surface pressure gradient between
the surface low moving northeastward through the Great Lakes
region and the surface ridge building eastward into our area from
the Plains. Tranquil and dry weather can be expected for the later
portion of the work week with temperatures close to seasonal
normals, then a little warmer for the weekend. A deepening upper
level trough over the northern Plains will send a cold front
southeastward through our area Sunday night. Both the GFS and
ECMWF models depict a cold pattern for the early portion of the
next work week with a deep upper level trough extending from the
Great Lakes into our area, along with persistent northwesterly
surface winds, and cold 850 mb temperatures.
GKS
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 548 AM CST Tue Feb 2 2016
Primary concern this morning is low level wind shear. AMDAR
sounding out of KSTL is confirming guidance forecasts of southeast
flow in excess of 40kts within 2000 ft of the surface this
morning. LLWS conditions should persist through much of the
morning. Second concern is MVFR ceilings spreading north out of
southern Missouri. These low ceilings should overspread the entire
area this morning...eventually falling to IFR as the day
progresses and precipitation increases in areal coverage. Will
also have to deal with scattered thunderstorms and the possibility
of wind gusts in excess of 50kts primarily over eastern Missouri
and Illinois today. A dry slot will punch into the area this
afternoon, switching the wind to the south-southwest and the low
ceilings will quickly erode leaving VFR flight conditions over the
area for the evening. Low clouds will wrap around the storm system
which is causing all of this weather and will overspread the area
from the northwest late tonight.
Specifics for KSTL:
AMDAR sounding from KSTL is confirming wind in excess of 40kts
within 2000 ft of the ground this morning. Have therefore
continued mention of LLWS in the TAF. Really only dropped the LLWS
later this morning when TS is started since TS implies wind shear.
The timing on ceilings below 2000 ft is not certain...think model
guidance is a little fast which is why I held off until 15Z...tho
1500 ft cigs are lurking over KFAM and KVIH. At any rate, ceiling
should drop over the next 2-4 hours and showers with a few
thunderstorms should overspread the terminal. Should see ceilings
improve during the late afternoon as the dry slot moves through.
Expect VFR flight conditions to prevail through the evening and
probably most of the night until low clouds move in early
Wednesday morning.
Carney
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
612 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 235 AM CST Tue Feb 2 2016
Showers and a few thunderstorms were moving north-northeastward
through western MO, just west of our forecast area early this
morning. This activity was in the vicinity of a strong southerly
low level jet and ahead of an upper level low and associated
surface low over southwest KS. The upper level low will move
northeastward into southeast Nebraska and western Iowa by 00z
Wednesday while the surface low moves into northwest MO. Showers
and scattered thunderstorms will sweep eastward through our
forecast area today as depicted by the latest HRRR run. The
models were depicting very strong 850 mb warm air advection,
theta-e advecton, and moisture convergence across much of our area
this morning into the afternoon on the nose of the strong
southerly low level jet as it translates eastward through our
region. Best potential for any severe storms will be across parts
of southeast MO and southwest IL this afternoon where the best
instability will be. The primary threat will be damaging winds.
The precipitation should shut off quickly this afternoon over
central MO as the dry slot moves northeastward into our area with
partial clearing. Strong and gusty surface winds can be expected
this morning into the afternoon, close to wind advisory criteria
due to the relatively tight surface pressure gradient and momentum
transfer to the surface from the strong low level jet. Despite the
cloud cover and precipitation, highs will be well above normal
today and warmer than yesterday.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 235 AM CST Tue Feb 2 2016
The precipitation should shift east of our forecast area this
evening with colder air filtering eastward into our area south and
southwest of the surface and upper level low. Wrap-around type
low level cloudiness will advect southeastward into our area
tonight with light snow or flurries possible, mainly across
northeast MO late tonight. Little if any accumulation is expected.
Much colder temperatures can be expected late tonight and
Wednesday with highs on Wednesday close to seasonal normals for
early February. Low level cloudiness will keep highs down on
Wednesday and there may be a few flurries. Winds will also be
strong and gusty with a tight surface pressure gradient between
the surface low moving northeastward through the Great Lakes
region and the surface ridge building eastward into our area from
the Plains. Tranquil and dry weather can be expected for the later
portion of the work week with temperatures close to seasonal
normals, then a little warmer for the weekend. A deepening upper
level trough over the northern Plains will send a cold front
southeastward through our area Sunday night. Both the GFS and
ECMWF models depict a cold pattern for the early portion of the
next work week with a deep upper level trough extending from the
Great Lakes into our area, along with persistent northwesterly
surface winds, and cold 850 mb temperatures.
GKS
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 548 AM CST Tue Feb 2 2016
Primary concern this morning is low level wind shear. AMDAR
sounding out of KSTL is confirming guidance forecasts of southeast
flow in excess of 40kts within 2000 ft of the surface this
morning. LLWS conditions should persist through much of the
morning. Second concern is MVFR ceilings spreading north out of
southern Missouri. These low ceilings should overspread the entire
area this morning...eventually falling to IFR as the day
progresses and precipitation increases in areal coverage. Will
also have to deal with scattered thunderstorms and the possibility
of wind gusts in excess of 50kts primarily over eastern Missouri
and Illinois today. A dry slot will punch into the area this
afternoon, switching the wind to the south-southwest and the low
ceilings will quickly erode leaving VFR flight conditions over the
area for the evening. Low clouds will wrap around the storm system
which is causing all of this weather and will overspread the area
from the northwest late tonight.
Specifics for KSTL:
AMDAR sounding from KSTL is confirming wind in excess of 40kts
within 2000 ft of the ground this morning. Have therefore
continued mention of LLWS in the TAF. Really only dropped the LLWS
later this morning when TS is started since TS implies wind shear.
The timing on ceilings below 2000 ft is not certain...think model
guidance is a little fast which is why I held off until 15Z...tho
1500 ft cigs are lurking over KFAM and KVIH. At any rate, ceiling
should drop over the next 2-4 hours and showers with a few
thunderstorms should overspread the terminal. Should see ceilings
improve during the late afternoon as the dry slot moves through.
Expect VFR flight conditions to prevail through the evening and
probably most of the night until low clouds move in early
Wednesday morning.
Carney
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
359 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 235 AM CST Tue Feb 2 2016
Showers and a few thunderstorms were moving north-northeastward
through western MO, just west of our forecast area early this
morning. This activity was in the vicinity of a strong southerly
low level jet and ahead of an upper level low and associated
surface low over southwest KS. The upper level low will move
northeastward into southeast Nebraska and western Iowa by 00z
Wednesday while the surface low moves into northwest MO. Showers
and scattered thunderstorms will sweep eastward through our
forecast area today as depicted by the latest HRRR run. The
models were depicting very strong 850 mb warm air advection,
theta-e advecton, and moisture convergence across much of our area
this morning into the afternoon on the nose of the strong
southerly low level jet as it translates eastward through our
region. Best potential for any severe storms will be across parts
of southeast MO and southwest IL this afternoon where the best
instability will be. The primary threat will be damaging winds.
The precipitation should shut off quickly this afternoon over
central MO as the dry slot moves northeastward into our area with
partial clearing. Strong and gusty surface winds can be expected
this morning into the afternoon, close to wind advisory criteria
due to the relatively tight surface pressure gradient and momentum
transfer to the surface from the strong low level jet. Despite the
cloud cover and precipitation, highs will be well above normal
today and warmer than yesterday.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 235 AM CST Tue Feb 2 2016
The precipitation should shift east of our forecast area this
evening with colder air filtering eastward into our area south and
southwest of the surface and upper level low. Wrap-around type
low level cloudiness will advect southeastward into our area
tonight with light snow or flurries possible, mainly across
northeast MO late tonight. Little if any accumulation is expected.
Much colder temperatures can be expected late tonight and
Wednesday with highs on Wednesday close to seasonal normals for
early February. Low level cloudiness will keep highs down on
Wednesday and there may be a few flurries. Winds will also be
strong and gusty with a tight surface pressure gradient between
the surface low moving northeastward through the Great Lakes
region and the surface ridge building eastward into our area from
the Plains. Tranquil and dry weather can be expected for the later
portion of the work week with temperatures close to seasonal
normals, then a little warmer for the weekend. A deepening upper
level trough over the northern Plains will send a cold front
southeastward through our area Sunday night. Both the GFS and
ECMWF models depict a cold pattern for the early portion of the
next work week with a deep upper level trough extending from the
Great Lakes into our area, along with persistent northwesterly
surface winds, and cold 850 mb temperatures.
GKS
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CST Mon Feb 1 2016
Not many changes from the prev TAFs again. Updated timing to
account for latest trends and guidance. TSRA will move into the
COU region around sunrise and move ewd impacting STL/SUS/CPS
during the late morning into early afternoon hours. Have only
added VCTS to UIN as coverage that far north is more uncertain.
Still expect cigs to improve quickly after precip ends with dry
slot moving into the region. Expect clouds to move back into
terminals, but beyond the current TAF period.
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
501 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE NE/EC WHERE SNOW
CONTINUES TO FALL. CLAYTON REPORTED 0.4 INCHES WHEN THE SNOWFALL
WENT THRU THERE...SO HAVE ADDED SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMS AS FAR
SOUTH AS KTCC. HRRR AND NAM MODEL PROGS SUGGEST THIS WILL DIMINISH
BY 06Z. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.
34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...456 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLD MVFR CONDITIONS OVER A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF NE NM
THROUGH ABOUT 6Z DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES TCC. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS OVER A VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT AND FRESH SNOWPACK MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS/VIS RESTRICTIONS. MOST AT RISK IS LVS AND
FMN. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT INTO TAF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...325 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A QUIET AND COLD PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS
AREAWIDE. SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER FOR AWHILE INTO THE
EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
STATE...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT FOR PRECIPITATION...NOTHING THAT
SIGNIFICANT. YET ANOTHER COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCES WILL
WILL BRUSH NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO BETWEEN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT WITH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY QUITE
LIMITED...NOT MUCH OTHER THAN A FEW SHOW SHOWERS OR PATCHES OF
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED AND LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO HALF
OF THE STATE. BY THE WEEKEND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES...SATURDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST AND THEN
SUNDAY MORE SO ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH. FURTHER WARMING IS
EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST MID OR LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL...LOOKING AHEAD THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE MUCH LESS
UNSETTLED THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS PAST WEEK. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TO NE NM SHOULD BOW
OUT GRACEFULLY LATER TONIGHT. TONIGHT WILL BE ONE OF THE COLDEST
NIGHTS OF THE SEASON SO FAR WITH SOME MINIMUMS IN THE COLDER MTN
VALLEYS OF THE NORTH LIKELY TO PLUMMET TO BETWEEN 20 AND 35
DEGREES BELOW ZERO AS SKIES CLEAR OUT. A BIT OF FREEZING FOG NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION IN SOME OF THESE LOCALES...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
QUITE HIGH ENOUGH AND ANY THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE QUITE
LOCALIZED.
ONE MORE BOUT WITH A COUPLE OF MOISTURE LIMITED DISTURBANCES ALOFT
EXPECTED FOR THE THU TO FRI PERIOD AND THE FCST MODELS ARE FINALLY
IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN THAT THEY WILL BRUSH THE N CENTRAL AND NE
PART OF THE STATE. ONLY TRIMMED THE MOSTLY LOW POPS A BIT MORE
OVER THAT WHICH WAS PARED OFF OVER THE LAST 2 MAIN FCST
PACKAGES...KEEPING COVERAGE SOMEWHAT LARGER THAN MAJORITY OF FCST
MODELS INDICATED OUT OF CONCERN THAT...AT OR NEAR THE LAST
MINUTE...THERE STILL MAY BE SOMEWHAT OF A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
TRACK OF THESE IMPULSES AS SEEMS TO OCCUR A BIT MORE OFTEN THAN
NOT. BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS TO BE THE CASE AREAWIDE INTO THE
END OF THE WEEK. BY THE WEEKEND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES...SATURDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST AND THEN
SUNDAY MORE SO ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH. FURTHER WARMING IS
EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST MID OR LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS THE RULE AND A CONTINUED PRECIP FREE
SCENARIO WITH SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT NOT FAR WEST OF THE
STATE.
43
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE RH/DEWPOINT GRIDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
VERY STRONG MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL SNEAK IN FROM THE
WEST/SOUTH. A PACIFIC WAVE PASSAGE ON FRIDAY WILL BEAT IT BACK SOME
BUT THEN IT SHOULD RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.
VERY TRICKY RH FORECASTING SO PLAN FOR WILD SWINGS. OTHERWISE VERY
FEW CHANGES OVERALL AS THE FORECAST TRENDS DRIER AND DRIER.
VENTILATION APPEARS TO BE THE LOWEST ON THURSDAY. THE WAVE IS STILL
NOT FAST ENOUGH TO RAISE MIXING HEIGHTS BUT IS EXPECTED TO RAISE
BOTH MIXING HEIGHT AND TRANSPORT WIND ON FRIDAY. THE FRIDAY VENT
RATE FORECAST HAS JUMPED AROUND THE PAST FEW DAYS SO PLAN ON SOME
CONTINUED VARIABILITY UNTIL THE MODELS RESOLVE THE WAVE BETTER. VENT
RATES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE WEEKEND. A VERY
STRONG RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST COAST AND ACT TO
DEFLECT MOST OF THE SYSTEM PASSAGES TO THE EAST. MODELS STILL SHOW
WAVE FOR LATER SUNDAY AND IF IT WERE TO TRACK BACK TO THE
WEST...THEN VENT RATES WOULD IMPROVE.
RIDGING IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK. ONCE AGAIN...THE PLACEMENT OF
THE RIDGE WILL BE CRUCIAL IN TERMS OF VENT RATE FORECASTS. IF IT
WERE TO STAY FURTHER WEST THEN VENT RATES WOULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER.
EITHER WAY...THEY LOOK PRETTY LOW NEXT WEEK COMPARED TO WHAT
OCCURRED AND WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK. A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRY
INTRUSION WILL ALSO BE FOUND WITH THE RIDGE. DEWPOINT FORECASTS FROM
THE MODELS APPEARED TO BE TOO HIGH SO LOWERED THEM ACROSS THE BOARD.
SNOW MELT WILL MAKE IT TRICKY ACROSS THE LOW/MID ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD EVENTUALLY WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL STATUS SOMETIME
DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
50
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
34
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1238 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA
OVERNIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A RAINY DAY ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1007 PM EST MONDAY...COLD FRONT ROUGHLY ANALYZED NEAR THE
ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WITH A NOTED SHARP WIND SHIFT TO NORTH
BEHIND IT. THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME POCKETS OF CLEARING ACROSS
CENTRAL VT INTO THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM THERE`S A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD
COVER WHICH PRECEDES THE COLD FRONT WITH OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN/WESTERN HALF OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. STILL SEE
SOME WEAK REFLECTIVITIES PER FRANKTOWN ONTARIO RADAR APPROXIMATELY
COLLOCATED WITH AN AXIS OF 925-850 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING PER
SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE. 00Z NAM MAINTAINS SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
PUSHING SOUTHWARD, THOUGH RECENT RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH JUST A WIND SHIFT. WITH ALL THAT SAID, EXPECT
AT LEAST AN INCREASE IN SKY COVER WITH POPS IN THE ISOLATED/SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE THOUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HRS. ANY ACCUMULATION IN
LOCATIONS WHERE IT DOES SNOW LIGHTLY WILL BE LIMITED. NO
ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPS, WHICH STILL LOOK ON TRACK AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 323 PM EST MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR OUR NEXT
BIG SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT, TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALL
THE WHILE SLIGHTLY OCCLUDING. STRONG MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND A MODEST SURGE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEVELOPING 50-70KT 925-850MB JET PUSH INTO THE AREA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT AT THE SURFACE A STRONG 1030MB HIGH OVER
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT SHIFTS OVER NOVA SCOTIA WEDNESDAY, TRAPPING
A SHALLOW LAYER OF COLD AIR, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
VERMONT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A BRIEF 1-3 HOUR WINDOW OF
POTENTIAL MIXED PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SLEET, SNOW AND/OR FZRA.
EXPECTED IMPACTS TO BE LIMITED THOUGH AS WARM AIR ADVECTION IS SO
ROBUST THAT SURFACE TEMPS CLIMB QUICKLY INTO THE MID 40S TO
LOCALLY 50 IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY MID-DAY WEDNESDAY, BUT
ONSET TIMING MAY COINCIDE WITH THE MORNING RUSH SO THIS WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED. CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIP REMAIN THE LONGEST EAST OF
THE GREENS, ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST WHERE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR AT
THE SURFACE WILL BE TOUGHEST TO SCOUR OUT, BUT EVENTUALLY WARMER
AIR ALOFT WILL IN OVER WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED BY MID-DAY.
OTHER THAN THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
SURFACE WINDS STILL EXIST WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG LOW LEVEL JET CHANNELED UP THE SOUTHERN
ST. LAWRENCE AND NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS. BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE
RATES AREN`T PARTICULARLY STEEP ENOUGH TO MIX DOWN THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT WINDS TO THE SURFACE, AND LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BACKED
OFF A BIT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE 925MB JET, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS TO 40 MPH STILL EXISTS IN THE AFTERNOON AS A MID-LEVEL DRY
SLOT BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
TEMPS WILL BE ABNORMALLY HIGH FOR EARLY FEBRUARY, TEETERING ON
RECORD LEVELS, WARMING WELL INTO THE 40S TO LOCALLY LOWER 50S LATE
IN THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 323 PM EST MONDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WANE GOING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC AND THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT BUILDS
FURTHER INTO THE REGION. ALOFT TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL SO ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK CONDITIONS DO TREND DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EVEN THOUGH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
NEVER REALLY VEERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST, SO OVERALL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK REMAIN SOMEWHAT MILD FOR FEBRUARY RANGING
THROUGH THE 30S FOR THURSDAY, AND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL IN THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT, AND MID 20S TO AROUND 30 FOR FRIDAY.
LOOKING FURTHER TOWARDS THE WEEKEND, A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS
TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AS WE GET BACK
INTO DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 30S, BUT AS A
DEEP TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SUNDAY TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH
13Z WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WINDS TRENDING LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. OTHER THAN A STRAY FLURRY NO PCPN
IS EXPECTED WITH UNRSETRICTED VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MVFR MOST PREVALENT AT KMSS/KSLK THROUGH 12Z. GENERALLY
VFR AFTER 14Z WITH SKIES TRENDING SKC/SCT040-060 AGL BY 18-20Z AT
ALL TERMINALS UNDER LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS. SOME MID TO HIGH
LEVEL BKN/OVC CIGS POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z, GENERALLY ABOVE FL100.
OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
06Z WED - 00Z THU...DETERIORATING AVIATION WX CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AS A WARM FRONT SHIFTS FROM CENTRAL NY INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. EXPECTED MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS ACROSS NRN NY...AND AROUND
DAYBREAK IN VT. WILL SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...WITH SNOW CHANGING TO A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN...AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL RAIN MID-LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR ALSO A CONCERN DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 25KTS POSSIBLE
BY WEDNESDAY AFTN FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. EXPECT
IMPACT TO AVIATION GROUND OPS FOR A TIME WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO
MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION. HIR TRRN OBSCD MOST OF THE PERIOD.
00Z THU- 12Z FRI...MAINLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS.
12Z FRI- 18Z SAT...VFR AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION.
18Z SAT-00Z SUN...AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE REACHED ON 2/3. HERE`S A
LISTING OF THE CURRENT RECORDS AND THE YEAR OBSERVED.
BURLINGTON, VT49|1991
MONTPELIER, VT55|1991
ST. JOHNSBURY, VT59|1991
MASSENA, NY48|1984
MT MANSFIELD, VT43|1973
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...JMG
CLIMATE...LAHIFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
740 PM EST WED FEB 03 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN STALL
ALONG THE COAST ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 740 PM WEDNESDAY...
LATEST RADAR SHOWS THAT THE THREAT OF CONVECTION AND HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS HAS MOSTLY MOVED EAST OF OUR CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING OUR FAR E/SE COUNTIES IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN...WHERE SOME POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE...FARTHER WEST THE CHARACTER OF THE
RAIN HAS TRANSITIONED TO MORE OF A STRATIFORM OFF-AND-ON LIGHT RAIN.
THE COLD FRONT...AS OF 00Z...WAS STILL LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST AND AS A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT
LIFTS OUT TO OUR NE. THE LATEST HRRR ALSO SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO...
THUS HAVE TWEAKED GRIDS TO SHOW POPS GRADUALLY DECREASING OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA...WHILE MAINTAINING AT LEAST A
GOOD-CHANCE POP ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF AS THOSE ZONES WILL LIKELY
SEE OFF-AND-ON RAIN OR SHOWERS PERSIST MOST OF THE NIGHT. BY
DAYBREAK...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWING DOWN ALONG OR JUST EAST OF
I-95...AND SO MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE CONFINED MOSTLY ALONG AND
EAST OF I-95. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AS THURSDAY
MORNING PROGRESSES...THANKS TO A LOW PRESSURE WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE
NE ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WILL SPREAD SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN BACK
WESTWARD AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS OUR NW/TRIAD ZONES
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TO THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR
WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE LATER TO ARRIVE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM WEDNESDAY...
PRECIP SHOULD BE ONGOING TO START THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT SLOWLY INCHES TO THE EAST. THE FRONT WILL NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR
THE AREA UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHEN A KICKER WAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. IN FACT IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIP MAY HOLD ON SLIGHTLY LONGER
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK ALONG THE
FRONT FURTHER SLOWING DOWN ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION. WITH THIS IN
MIND...PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES AND HIGHEST QPF VALUES
WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT ON THURSDAY...BUT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN/EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL FINALLY MOVE OUT OF
THE BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT IS PUSHED
OFFSHORE. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN WITH THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S/LOWER 60S ON THURSDAY AND EVEN COOLER BY FRIDAY ONCE THE FRONT
FINALLY PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S/LOW 50S... WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 20S/LOWER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM WEDNESDAY...
PRECIP WILL LIKELY RETURN TO THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY (CONSIDERABLY EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS) AS A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST US AND INDUCES A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVES UP THE COAST. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOMEWHAT
BETTER AGREEMENT...THUS CONFIDENCE (IN AT LEAST PRECIP COVERAGE) IS
SLOWLY INCREASING. PRECIP SHOULD MOVE BACK INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.
WHERE LOWER CONFIDENCE EXISTS IS WHETHER OR NOT P-TYPE WILL BE AN
ISSUE. AT THIS TIME...GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROFILES...WILL
INTRODUCE RAIN AND/OR SNOW AT BOTH THE ONSET LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN AGAIN AS IT PULLS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER EVEN DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING
DOWN SOME ARCTIC AIR OUT OF CANADA...WITH THE AREA SEEING HIGHS IN
THE 30S AND 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW WITH
RESPECT TO HOW THIS WILL ULTIMATELY EVOLVE...THEREFORE WILL NOT PUT
A LOT OF DETAIL IN THE PRECIP FORECAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ARCTIC
AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...P-TYPE ISSUES COULD POTENTIALLY BECOME A
PROBLEM FOR NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM WEDNESDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD: IRF/LOCAL-LIFR WITH OFF-AND-ON LIGHT RAIN AND LOW
CIGS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 04/08Z MAINLY WEST OF
KRDU (INCLUDING KINT/KGSO)...UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THEN
LOOK FOR GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS. INVOF KRDU AND EASTWARD...
THE CHANCE OF STEADIER RAIN WILL BE HIGHER OVERNIGHT...BUT IN THE
WARMER AIR EAST OF THE FRONT THE CIGS/VSBY SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER
(STILL MOSTLY MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER POCKETS
OF RAIN). THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST EAST OF I-95 BY
04/12Z...BUT THEN A LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVING NE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
SPREAD RAIN AND LOWER CIGS BACK WESTWARD DURING THE DAYTIME
THURSDAY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY DRAMATIC IMPROVEMENT TO FLIGHT
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. -RAH
LOOKING AHEAD: FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES DRAMATICALLY FRI-MON.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST AT EASTERN TERMINALS
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SHORT PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE ON SAT. SIGNIFICANT ADVERSE CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS MUCH
HIGHER THAN TYPICAL...EVEN FOR THAT RANGE IN THE FORECAST. -VINCENT
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...RAH/VINCENT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
703 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE
KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THURSDAY. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW MAY DEVELOP
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND PERHAPS EVEN
SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION. ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM WEDNESDAY...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTION
VIA LATEST KLTX AND SURROUNDING 88DS...EXTENDED ALONG AND JUST
WEST OF HIGHWAY 701 THAT RUNS FROM GARLAND NC TO GEORGETOWN SC.
THIS ACTIVITY HAS ENCOUNTERED SOME ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THAT
HAVE A NEGATIVE EFFECT IN PRODUCING AND/OR SUSTAINING THIS CURRENT
CONVECTION. THE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE
CONVECTION ARE TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE ILM CWA WHERE THERE IS AVBL
CAPE AND BETTER LAPSE RATES FROM LATE AFTN TEMPS HAVING CLIMBED
TO WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80. NEVERTHELESS...LOOK FOR THIS
LEADING EDGE TO PUSH TO AND OFF THE ILM CWA COAST BY MID TO LATE
THIS EVENING. THE CONVECTION WILL HAVE TROUBLE SUSTAINING ITSELF
WHEN IT MOVES ACROSS OUR NEARSHORE WATERS DUE TO SSTS IN THE 40S
TO LOW 50S. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY REFIRE ONCE IT HITS
THOSE WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS JUST OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
A WIDESPREAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
ILM CWA AFTER THE INITIAL CONVECTION. BY DAYBREAK THU...A GOOD
SWATH OF 0.80 TO 1.10 INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL HAVE FALLEN ACROSS
THE ILM CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE POSSIBLE TEMPORARY
PONDING OF WATER ACROSS LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
TONIGHTS LOW TEMPS WILL OCCUR AROUND DAYBREAK THU. IN TURN...
THESE LOWS MAY ACTUALLY BE THURSDAYS HIGHS DEPENDING HOW MUCH CAA
MAKES IT INTO THE ILM CWA.
PREVIOUS.........................................................
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTION WHICH IS PRODUCING ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER TO THE WEST. THE LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING THE
CONVECTION SLOWLY SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY
21 UTC AND CREEPING TO THE EAST AND TOWARD THE COAST JUST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.
THE INITIAL THREAT IS AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH DAMAGING
WINDS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO IT WE CONTINUE TO SEE THE BOWING
IN THE CONVECTIVE LINES. THE BIGGER THREAT WITH HIGHER PROBABILITY
IS THE HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SLOW MOVING LINE. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
IS RUNNING AROUND 1.8 WHICH IS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR AND AS THE CONVECTION SHIFTS EASTWARD IT WILL SLOW AND THIS
WILL INCREASE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT OF 2 INCH AMOUNTS IN SOME
PLACES.
LOWS OVERNIGHT AREA EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH
THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...RATHER COPIOUS RAIN EVENT UNDERWAY THURSDAY
AS A FAIRLY FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP ALONG THE OFFSHORE
BOUNDARY IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG UPPER LOW BEARING DOWN FROM THE
WEST. BY THE TIME THE PRECIP WINDS DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT MOST AREAS
SHOULD NET TWO INCHES TO TWO AND A QUARTER. THIS IS FAR ENOUGH BELOW
FLOOD GUIDANCE THAT A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE BREEZY AND WELL MIXED KEEPING LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S EVEN AS TEMPS ALOFT GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FLURRIES ON
THE VERY TAIL END OF THE PRECIP. TOUGH TO RULE OUT A FLAKE OR TWO
REACHING THE GROUND DESPITE THE STRONG DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN DUE
TO 34 S-1 VORT BEARING DOWN ON THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEAKLY DUE TO THE NEXT SYSTEM ALOFT
RELOADING TO OUR WEST. MOST PLACES WILL STRUGGLE TO ABOUT 50 DESPITE
AMPLE SUNSHINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...INTERESTING START TO NEXT WEEK SHAPING UP
DURING THE PERIOD. FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR SAT WITH
ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE JUST WEST OF THE AREA. THINGS START TO GET
INTERESTING SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES
THE GULF COAST...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE
SAT NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT HELPS SPREAD
RAIN OVER THE AREA SUN MORNING. THE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS NORTHEAST
SUN AND SUN NIGHT. HAVE FAIR AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE PRESENCE OF
THE LOW BUT CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE CONCERNING THE LOWS
PROXIMITY TO THE COAST AND ITS FORWARD SPEED. STRENGTH AND TRACK
BOTH HAVE LARGE RAMIFICATIONS ON PRECIP TYPE SUN AND SUN NIGHT.
INHERITED FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH WPC...IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS GFS
SOLUTIONS AND THE 00Z ECMWF. THIS WOULD RESULT IN COLD RAIN WITH
SOME SNOW MIXED IN AS THE EVENT ENDS. THE LAST FEW GFS RUNS HOWEVER
HAVE TRENDED COLDER AND SLOWER...WITH MORE SNOW AND LESS RAIN. THIS
IS DOWN TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAVE A DEEPER SYSTEM AT 500
MB...WHICH MEANS MORE COLD AIR AND SLOWER MOVEMENT. SINCE THIS
SOLUTION IS NEW AND NOT REALLY IN LINE WITH GFS ENSEMBLES OR WPC IT
HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED FOR NOW...BUT BEARS WATCHING.
STACKED LOW EXITS NORTHEAST LATE SUN NIGHT BUT BROAD 5H TROUGH
LINGERS OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE IS SOME COLD
AIR BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM MON INTO TUE WHICH KEEPS TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. MUCH COLDER AIR FOLLOWS A STRONG COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA ON TUE. ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DROP
TEMPS WELL BELOW CLIMO. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY SHOWING 850
TEMPS RANGING FROM -10C TO -15C AS THE PERIOD ENDS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA IMPACTED KLBT AND KFLO ATTM. THIS LINE WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND IMPACT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS. MARINE INFLUENCE ALONG THE COAST HAS LEAD
TO MORE STABLE AIRMASS WITH LIMITED IF ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THESE TERMINALS. COLD
FRONT MOVING IN FROM BEHIND THIS LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
STALL ALONG THE COAST RESULTING IN PROLONG PERIOD OF RAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO
DETERIORATE INTO IFR PERHAPS LIFR FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME MAINLY
ALONG THE COASTAL TERMINALS NEAR THE FRONT. MAIN ISSUES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT WILL BE LOW CEILINGS...PRECIPITATION AND WINDS. TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN WINDS GUSTING
TO 25-30 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST UNTIL FROPA DURING THE MORNING ALONG THE COASTAL
TERMINALS AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS KLBT/KFLO.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE OF IMPROVEMENT AFTER 05/00Z.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ON THURSDAY.
BECOMING VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 PM WEDNESDAY...ELEVATED THE SCEC TO A SCA FOR THE ILM SC
WATERS. EVENTHOUGH WINDS STAY JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS JUST OFFSHORE WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SEAS THAT
ARE 4 TO 6 FT...WHICH WILL BLEED INTO THE ILM SC WATERS THIS
EVENING AND IF OVERNIGHT.
LOOK FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT...UP TO 25 KT FOR THE ILM
NC WATERS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THIS VEERING IN THE SFC WINDS WILL CUT DOWN ON THE SEA
FOG DEVELOPMENT AND POTENTIAL...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME ACROSS
THE WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR SOUTH TO MURRELLS INLET DUE TO THE
CONFIGURATION OF THE COASTLINE WITH A SW WIND. NEVERTHELESS...THOSE
60+ DEWPOINTS MOVING ACROSS SSTS IN THE 40S STILL POSE A SEA FOG
RISK.
PREVIOUS......................................................
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS WITH A SLIGHT VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 4 TO 7 FEET
NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER BASE ON LOCAL BUOYS AND SEAS ARE 4 FEET TO
THE SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET. THE LOCAL WAVE MODEL IS SHOWING
THE SEAS AT 20 MILES OFF THE COAST REMAINING AROUND 6 FEET
OVERNIGHT BEFORE DROPPING TO BELOW 5 FEET JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. SO
WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF LITTLE
RIVER THROUGH 6 AM AND AN EXERCISE CAUTION TO THE SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY... OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE RATHER LIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY`S VERY RAINY AFTERNOON. AS A FLAT WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE RIDES BY FLOW WILL BACK AND INCREASE IN SPEED
THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE TO WHERE CAUTIONARY
HEADLINES OR ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BY THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
FRIDAY. THE LOW ACCELERATES QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD AS FRIDAY
PROGRESSES AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY ABATE BELOW ANY THRESHOLDS
THOUGH SCEC-WORTHY SEAS MAY CONTINUE FOR A BIT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH WEST OF THE WATERS
ON SAT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY ENHANCED GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.
NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 15 KT SAT STARTS TO INCREASE SAT NIGHT AS
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH. WINDS STEADILY INCREASE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN WITH SCA LIKELY AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
GALE CONDITIONS LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT. ANY GALES WILL DEPEND ON
THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT PASSES EAST OF THE WATERS.
WINDS WILL BACK FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST SUN AND SUN NIGHT WITH
SPEEDS DECREASING LATE SUN NIGHT AS THE LOW EXITS NORTHEAST. WEAK
GRADIENT BRIEFLY IN PLACE MON WITH WINDS BACKING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHWEST AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SPEEDS DROP
UNDER 10 KT EARLY MON MORNING BUT BY EVENING MOST AREAS WILL BE AT
OR ABOVE 15 KT...AND FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SEAS DECREASING AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD START TO BUILD SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH SUN...PEAKING JUST SHORT OF 10 FT SUN NIGHT.
DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON WILL BEGIN A
DOWNWARD TREND IN SEAS INTO MON EVENING BEFORE SEAS START
BUILDING AS THE PERIOD ENDS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH/DRH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PENDLETON OR
909 AM PST TUE FEB 2 2016
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
.UPDATE...THE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS ON THE FORECAST AREA...THE MOST
NOTICEABLE BEING SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THERE IS A CHANCE
OF SOME MORNING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OREGON CASCADES IN
DESCHUTES COUNTY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE CAMERAS ARE SHOWING
ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL KEEPS
ANY PRECIPITATION WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THAT SAID...IT
SHOULD BE A FAIRLY NICE DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...ALTHOUGH STILL COLD
IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE SNOW COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
20S AND 30S. IN AND AROUND THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN...TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. COBB
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE REGION BUT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE MVFR. KRDM AND KBDN
COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW BY 03/16Z. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10
KTS. EARLE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 153 AM PST TUE FEB 2 2016/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE UNSETTLED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE INTO AN UPPER RIDGE OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST AND DOWN
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME SHEARED
APART BY THE RIDGE AS IT INTERACTS WITH IT. AS SUCH PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE CONFINED TO JUST THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES AND WILL BE VERY LIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
ACROSS THE CWA. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH STRONGER AND WETTER AND
WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A GREATER AMOUNT OF LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW. SNOW LEVELS WILL RUN ABOUT 2000-4000 FEET AND THERE
WILL BE SOME ACCUMULATION. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON. SNOW AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST SHY OF THE 24 HOUR SNOW AMOUNT CRITERIA FOR
THAT AREA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME WILL
NOT ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES.
THIS DOES NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY BY THE DAY SHIFT TODAY WHEN NEW
MODEL DATA ARRIVES. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING
WINDS WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD. THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR
WIND HIGHLIGHTS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA FOR THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS WILL NOT BE MET. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THE NEED
FOR A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS AND THE GRANDE
RONDE VALLEY. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AND LACK OF
CONFIDENCE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WIND ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. AN UPPER
RIDGE WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE CWA
ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN A DRYING TREND. THERE WILL BE A WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. 88
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A TEMPORARY RIDGE WILL
BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS. A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW. IT WILL BE BREEZY SATURDAY IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. A VERY PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN
BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA BEGINNING SUNDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS. WE ARE NOT QUITE OUT OF CLIMATOLOGICAL FOG SEASON YET SO
INCLUDED SOME PATCHY FOG FOR THE COLUMBIA BASIN MAINLY AT NIGHT
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO KEPT SOME CLOUDS AROUND DURING THE
DAYTIME ALONG WITH COOLER MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 40S. 78
AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. COULD BE A LITTLE MVFR/IFR IN FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING AT KDLS AND KPSC. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS
FROM 5-12 K FEET THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL CARRY A VCSH
GROUP AT KBDN FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING AS A WEATHER SYSTEM PASSES
JUST TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT. 78
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 43 27 44 34 / 0 10 40 70
ALW 45 28 43 34 / 0 10 30 70
PSC 45 26 41 32 / 0 10 40 60
YKM 43 26 37 28 / 0 10 50 60
HRI 46 28 41 34 / 0 10 40 60
ELN 38 23 34 26 / 0 10 60 60
RDM 42 25 41 30 / 10 10 60 60
LGD 38 22 36 30 / 10 10 30 70
GCD 36 17 36 27 / 10 10 40 70
DLS 47 31 42 35 / 10 10 70 70
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
82/81/81
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
817 AM PST TUE FEB 2 2016
.UPDATE...THE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS ON THE FORECAST AREA...THE MOST
NOTICEABLE BEING SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THERE IS A CHANCE
OF SOME MORNING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OREGON CASCADES IN
DESCHUTES COUNTY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE CAMERAS ARE SHOWING
ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL KEEPS
ANY PRECIPITATION WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THAT SAID...IT
SHOULD BE A FAIRLY NICE DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...ALTHOUGH STILL COLD
IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE SNOW COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
20S AND 30S. IN AND AROUND THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN...TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. COBB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 153 AM PST TUE FEB 2 2016/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE UNSETTLED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE INTO AN UPPER RIDGE OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST AND DOWN
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME SHEARED
APART BY THE RIDGE AS IT INTERACTS WITH IT. AS SUCH PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE CONFINED TO JUST THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES AND WILL BE VERY LIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
ACROSS THE CWA. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH STRONGER AND WETTER AND
WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A GREATER AMOUNT OF LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW. SNOW LEVELS WILL RUN ABOUT 2000-4000 FEET AND THERE
WILL BE SOME ACCUMULATION. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON. SNOW AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST SHY OF THE 24 HOUR SNOW AMOUNT CRITERIA FOR
THAT AREA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME WILL
NOT ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES.
THIS DOES NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY BY THE DAY SHIFT TODAY WHEN NEW
MODEL DATA ARRIVES. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING
WINDS WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD. THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR
WIND HIGHLIGHTS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA FOR THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS WILL NOT BE MET. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THE NEED
FOR A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS AND THE GRANDE
RONDE VALLEY. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AND LACK OF
CONFIDENCE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WIND ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. AN UPPER
RIDGE WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE CWA
ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN A DRYING TREND. THERE WILL BE A WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. 88
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A TEMPORARY RIDGE WILL
BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS. A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW. IT WILL BE BREEZY SATURDAY IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. A VERY PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN
BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA BEGINNING SUNDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS. WE ARE NOT QUITE OUT OF CLIMATOLOGICAL FOG SEASON YET SO
INCLUDED SOME PATCHY FOG FOR THE COLUMBIA BASIN MAINLY AT NIGHT
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO KEPT SOME CLOUDS AROUND DURING THE
DAYTIME ALONG WITH COOLER MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 40S. 78
AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. COULD BE A LITTLE MVFR/IFR IN FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING AT KDLS AND KPSC. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS
FROM 5-12 K FEET THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL CARRY A VCSH
GROUP AT KBDN FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING AS A WEATHER SYSTEM PASSES
JUST TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT. 78
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 43 27 44 34 / 0 10 40 70
ALW 45 28 43 34 / 0 10 30 70
PSC 45 26 41 32 / 0 10 40 60
YKM 43 26 37 28 / 0 10 50 60
HRI 46 28 41 34 / 0 10 40 60
ELN 38 23 34 26 / 0 10 60 60
RDM 42 25 41 30 / 10 10 60 60
LGD 38 22 36 30 / 10 10 30 70
GCD 36 17 36 27 / 10 10 40 70
DLS 47 31 42 35 / 10 10 70 70
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
82/81/81
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1032 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A LOT OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR...BETWEEN
850 AND 700 MB THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WHILE RADAR ECHOES ARE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE MISSOURI
VALLEY...MUCH OF THIS IS NOT YET REACHING THE GROUND. THE LATEST
HRRR AND RAP RUNS...AS WELL AS THE NEW 00Z NAM AND GFS RUNS ARE
SLOWING DOWN THE ONSET OF THE MORE PERSISTENT SNOW BAND DEVELOPING
IN OUR AREA. WHILE SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN
OUR SOUTH..IT LOOKS LIKE THE MORE STEADY MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL
REACH OUR SOUTHERN BORDER LATE TONIGHT OR AROUND DAYBREAK WHILE
THE I90 CORRIDOR AND NORTH WILL SEE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE MID TO
LATE MORNING. OPTED TO SPLIT THE BLIZZARD WARNING ALONG THE I90
CORRIDOR AND SLOW THE START TIME FROM 09Z TO 12Z DUE TO THE SLOWER
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE STEADY SNOWFALL. AMOUNTS GENERALLY
LOOK ON TRACK...WITH MODELS STILL PAINTING 9 INCHES PLUS ACROSS
MUCH OF OUR SOUTHEASTERN HALF.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID
LEVELS SPINNING AWAY JUST EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE VARIOUS
MODELS HAVE COME AROUND TO PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE
TRACK OF THE 500MB LOW TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...EJECTING THE CENTER OF
THE LOW INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW
FOLLOWS SUIT...WITH A TRACK FROM NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...TO NEAR ST. JOE MISSOURI AND FALLS CITY NEB BY
00Z WEDNESDAY. THE MOST MARKED CHANGE IS IN THE NAM...WHICH HAS MADE
A DRAMATIC SHIFT NORTHWARD IN ITS FORECAST WHICH NOW MIMICS THE
GLOBAL MODELS. THE GEM IS ALSO TRENDING NORTHWARD.
IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE WHILE FOR THE 850-700MB LAYER TO SATURATE UP
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. THEREFORE SLOWED DOWN
THE BEGINNING OF THE SNOWFALL THIS EVENING FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
THE SNOW WILL LIKELY NOT BEGIN FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I 90
UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. WITH THE OVERALL TREND OF
THE MODELS SHIFTING NORTHWARD...AT LEAST THE NAM AND GEM...THAT
LEADS TO SOME CONFIDENCE TO EXPAND THE BLIZZARD WARNING TO THE NORTH
AND WEST...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM TYNDALL SOUTH
DAKOTA...TO SIOUX FALLS...AND IVANHOE/MARSHALL MN. WINDS WERE NEVER
REALLY QUESTION FOR THIS EVENT...WITH THE MIXED LAYER MEAN WINDS
ABOUT 35 TO 40 KNOTS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. BUT NOW WITH HEAVIER
SNOW EXPECTED TO THE WEST OF THE ORIGINAL BLIZZARD WARNING...FEEL
THAT WHITE OUT CONDITIONS WILL BE A PROBLEM NOW IN THE NEW AREA. ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SNOWBAND...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FROM GREGORY COUNTY...TO MITCHELL AND BROOKINGS FOR AROUND 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW AND WINDY CONDITIONS. BUT THEIR WIND SHOULD AVERAGE
ABOUT 10 MPH LESS THEN THE WARNED AREA. FRONTOGENESIS IS FAIRLY
STRONG ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS...WHERE THE LATEST NAM SPLITS
THE 700MB FORCING INTO TWO DISTINCT LOCATIONS. THE FIRST ONE MOVES
NORTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST IOWA THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BASICALLY BE
WASTED SATURATING UP THE LOWER LAYERS. THEN IT PINWHEELS WESTWARD
INTO THE NEW BLIZZARD WARNING SEGMENT LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
FRONTOGENESIS REMAINS DEEP IN NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MN FROM
850-650MB ON TUESDAY...AND OUR EASTERN ZONES ALSO HAVE LESS STABLE
EPV* TO DEAL WITH WHICH SHOULD ADD TO SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 60. SO FOR THE BLIZZARD WARNING AREA...EXPECTING A SOLID 8
TO 13 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 60...TO 6 TO 8 INCHES
IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST SD AROUND YANKTON AND SIOUX FALLS. AMOUNTS WILL
BE A LITTLE LIGHTER ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING...BUT
REMEMBER IT WILL NOT TAKE A LOT OF SNOW TO CREATE WHITE OUT
CONDITIONS WITH 25 TO 45 MPH WIND SPEEDS. ONE OTHER INTERESTING
FEATURE IS THE JET...A SECONDARY JET STREAK DEVELOPS IN CENTRAL MN
AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WHICH
WILL PLACE OUR AREA IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THAT JET STREAK.
WITH THE PRIMARY JET TO THE SOUTH NEAR THE UPPER LOW...THAT MEANS
THE ENTIRE EASTERN HALF OF OUR FA WILL BE IN A SUBTLE COUPLED JET
ADDING TO BROAD SCALE ASCENT ON TOP OF THE MESOSCALE ASCENT PROVIDED
BY THE FRONTOGENESIS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONGEST
WINDS IN THE UPPER MIXED LAYER ACTUALLY DURING THE EARLY EVENING AT
40 TO 45 KNOTS...WITH WORST CONDITIONS WHERE SNOWFALL CONTINUES.
LIKELY THE ONLY MODERATE SNOWFALL REMAINING BY EARLY EVENING WILL BE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE
TAIL END OF WEAK TROWAL CONTINUES TO LINGER...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
SNOWFALL ELSEWHERE. AS SNOWFALL WINDS DOWN LATER IN THE EVENING AND
EARLY OVERNIGHT...AND WINDS ACTUALLY START TO GRADUALLY EASE...
SHOULD SEE THE COVERAGE OF BLOWING SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA SLOWLY DIMINISH AS
WELL...BUT AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE RIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING MAINLY EAST OF I 29.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE ON WEDNESDAY...AND NEW SNOW AND COLD
ADVECTION LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPS ON THE CHILLY SIDE. COULD EVEN SEE A
FEW FLURRIES WITH LOW LEVEL SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS. ANOTHER
REINFORCING WAVE SLIPS SOUTHEAST BY LATER WEDNESDAY...BUT SHOULD BE
NO MORE THAN A CLOUD PRODUCER. GOOD THING FOR THE CLOUDS...WITH WEAK
RIDGE SHIFTING OVER EARLY EVENING AND DECOUPLED WINDS...WOULD BE
OPEN TO GET QUITE CHILLY...BEFORE INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWEST
GRADIENT ALLOWS FOR RISING TEMPS LATER IN THE NIGHT. ANOTHER FAIRLY
COMPACT WAVE MOVES TOWARD EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING...AND PERHAPS WILL NEED TO THINK ABOUT A FEW FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES AHEAD OF SYSTEM. AS WAVE PASSES BY...WILL GET A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD START SOME
FALLING TEMPS NORTH TO SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ROLLER COASTER
CONTINUES WITH ANOTHER SPLITTING WAVE BY FRIDAY...TURNING WINDS BACK
AROUND SOUTHERLY AFTER WEAK RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH FOR
EFFECTIVE DYNAMICS...AND PERHAPS A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
NORTHEAST. PUSH OF MILDER TEMPS STARTS ON FRIDAY...WITH RETURN TO
30S...MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE LESSER SNOW AREAS WEST.
QUIETER AND GENTLER WEATHER WILL DWELL FOR MUCH OF THE LONGER RANGE
PERIOD FOLLOWING THE WINTER STORM. FOR THE MOMENT...A SMALL
CONSENSUS THAT TEMPS WILL WARM QUITE A BIT ON SATURDAY WITH A
MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...AND AGAIN LESSER SNOW AREAS WEST
MAY SEE SOME LOWER TO MID 40S. ANOTHER WAVE AROUND SUNDAY WILL PUSH
A FRONT THROUGH...AND BEING A FAIRLY DISTINCT UPPER PV
ANOMALY...HAVE BUMPED UP TO A LOWER CHANCE POP AT THIS TIME. MAY BE
WARM ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE RAIN TO START...BUT GENERALLY SNOW AS TEMPS
ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO FALL AS PRECIP FORCING PUSHES SOUTHEAST. A SOLID
PUSH OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN MONDAY WITH BRISK NORTHERLY
WINDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
AREAS OF LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE REGION...WHILE VFR CONDITIONS TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO
RAPIDLY DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. STRONG WINDS AND
SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY QUICKLY DROPPING TO IFR AND LIFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW AT TIMES. WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 40 KT ON
TUESDAY...BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AND WILL FURTHER
REDUCE VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. SNOW
BEGINS TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...BUT STRONG
WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO CREATE BLOWING SNOW ISSUES INTO THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION...AND WILL BE A MAJOR IMPACT AT KFSD
AND KSUX.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
SDZ065>071.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SDZ040-050-054-055-059-060-063-064.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
SDZ056-061-062.
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098.
IA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.
NE...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
NEZ013-014.
&&
$$
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1059 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR NEXT 24 HRS AT KLRD/KALI WITH KCRP/KVCT XPCTD TO
BE ON EDGE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE TONIGHT AND ALL OF DAYLIGHT TUES.
STRONG SRLY FLOW /925MB SRLY LLJ OF 50 TO 55 KTS/ AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT PERSISTS ACROSS EASTERN S TX AS OF WRITING WITH AREAS OF
STRATUS CONTINUING MOVING NWRD. APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT THE LLJ EWRD BRINGING AN END TO STRATUS AS WELL AS A
DECREASE IN SFC WINDS. FROPA XPCTD THRU KLRD SHORTLY AFTER 06Z AND
ALONG THE COAST BY 12Z /IF NOT SOONER/ BRIEF BURST OF GUSTY NW
WINDS AFTER FROPA...THEN DECREASING IN INTENSITY THRU MID
MRNG...ANOTHER SURGE OF GUSTY WINDS AROUND MIDDAY...THEN BECMG
LIGHT TUES AFTN/EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 834 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016/
DISCUSSION...SEE MARINE DISCUSSION.
MARINE...WINDS HAVE PICKED UP OVER THE BAYS/NEARSHORE TO WHERE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED...AS WINDS FROM LOW LEVEL JET
ARE MIXING DOWN. HRRR MODEL SHOWING WINDS KICKING UP 25 TO 30
KNOTS LATER TONIGHT OFFSHORE. CONSIDERING WINDS ARE BEING
UNDERESTIMATED BY OTHER MODELS...HAVE LEANT MORE TOWARD HIGHER
WINDS OFFSHORE. STILL BELOW GALE FORCE (COULD HAVE OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS) BUT FARTHER OFFSHORE LESS MIXING LIKELY DUE TO
BETTER MARINE LAYER. HOWEVER...WINDS/SEAS OFFSHORE WILL BE SCA TIL
ABOUT MID MORNING SO HAVE EXTENDED THE OFFSHORE SCA TIL 9 AM. HAVE
UPDATED COASTALS AND MWW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016/
DISCUSSION...ALLOWED RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE (AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH EWX/BRO). LOOKS GOOD BUT THERE WILL BE ELEVATED
CONDITIONS FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE RH AND WINDS BRING
CONDITIONS TO BELOW ELEVATED LEVELS. DID ADJUST GRIDS A BIT
(WARMER OUT WEST THAN FORECAST...COOLER EAST)...BUT OVERALL LET
THE FORECAST W.R.T. MAIN WEATHER PARAMETERS (LOWS/TIMING OF
FRONT/RAIN CHANCES ETC).
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016/
DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF FCST FOR KLRD/KALI WITH LOW TO
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR KCRP/KVCT. AREAS OF STRATUS XPCTD TO DVLP
AND SPREAD N ALONG THE TX COAST THIS EVENING WITH MVFR CIGS
ALREADY IMPACTNG KVCT...WITH LOWERING CIGS XPCTD THRU THE EVENING
/LIKELY TO IFR AT TIMES/. KCRP CURRENTLY FEW025 BUT STRATUS
SHOULD DVLP BY MID/LATE EVENING WITH CIGS AT MVFR /POSSIBLE IFR/
LEVELS. KLRD/KALI SHOULD REMAIN SKC THIS EVENING WITH STRATUS
POSSIBLY APPROACHING KALI AROUND 06Z. STRONG/GUSTY SRLY WINDS TO
IMPACT KCRP/KVCT/KALI THIS EVENING AS STRONG SRLY LLJ DVLPS...WITH
WEAKER WINDS AT KLRD. OVERNIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST AT KLRD SHORTLY AFTER 06Z AND REACHING THE
COAST LATE IN THE NIGHT. FRONT WILL CLEAR CIGS OUT WITH SKC MOST
OF THE DAYLIGHT HRS TUES. GUSTY NW WINDS AN HR OR SO AFTER FROPA
WITH DECREASING WIND SPEEDS THRU THE DAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...IMMEDIATE FORECAST
CONCERN IS THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED BETWEEN 20 AND
25 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH AS RH/S HAVE FALLEN BETWEEN 15
AND 25 PERCENT. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATER THIS
EVENING AS RH VALUES SLOWLY RECOVER. WINDS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY KEEP WIDESPREAD FOG FROM
DEVELOPING...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE...
THINKING WITH RESPECT TO COLD FRONT TIMING HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH.
BOUNDARY WILL ENTER NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT
AND SHOULD PUSH OFF THE COAST AROUND 6AM. PRIOR TO THE
FRONT...STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL OCCUR TONIGHT RESULTING IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER BOTH THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FAR EASTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA ALONG THE FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO
WARM INTO THE 70S DESPITE THE FRONT ARRIVING IN THE MORNING. MUCH
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL LEAD
TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN MOST LOCATIONS. COOLER AIR
ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE 40S.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE MAIN H5 TROUGH SWINGS FARTHER EAST...WITH
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AS
A REINFORCEMENT HIGH SLIDES INTO THE REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT RISES
SUGGEST A BREEZIER DAY THAN COMPUTER MODEL WINDS ARE OUTPUTTING...SO
HAVE INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY...BUT AS OF CURRENT WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA. HOWEVER ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WEATHER WILL
STILL EXIST...ESPECIALLY FOR THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. THINGS MAY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS. THE GRADIENT
WILL THEN RELAX THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE NEXT H5 TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN
MEXICO...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS MEXICO. A PERSISTENT EAST-
NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WEDGED BETWEEN THE SFC
LOW TO THE WEST...SFC HIGH TO THE EAST...AND A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST. THIS WILL RETURN MOISTURE
TO THE AREA BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE HAVING TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH DRYING THINGS
OUT...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH DRIER CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 60S BY WEDNESDAY WITH CAA...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID-30S/LOW-40S. NOT GOING TOO LOW
WITH TEMPERATURES AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AS WINDS MAY BE A BIT TOO
ELEVATED TO LET TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RAISE ONLY SLIGHTLY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A GENERALLY E-NE FLOW REMAINS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 60 78 44 65 41 / 10 10 0 0 0
VICTORIA 59 74 40 61 35 / 20 10 0 0 0
LAREDO 57 76 43 68 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALICE 58 78 41 64 39 / 10 10 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 61 74 45 62 43 / 10 10 0 0 0
COTULLA 53 74 40 64 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 59 79 42 65 40 / 10 10 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 62 75 48 62 45 / 10 10 0 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
RH/79...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
857 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
TRAILING SOUTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY...PASSING OVERHEAD FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 857 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE WEST. ADJUSTED POPS ONCE AGAIN FOR
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IN GENERAL...TREND BACK THE WESTERN
EDGE OF SHOWERS. REGIONAL WSR-88D CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. LEANED
THE POPS TOWARDS THE HRRR. THE HIRESWARW-EAST AND RAP WERE JUST A
LITTLE SLOWER ON THE EXIT OF THE RAIN. OVERALL...HIGHRES MODELS
WERE FAIRLY CLOSE ON TIMING OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE COLD
AIR WAS LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES FOR THURSDAY MORNING.
AS OF 655 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
A COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE AXIS OF THE HEAVY RAINS HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF OUR AREA INTO EASTERN VIRGINIA AND EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. KFCX 88D SHOWED SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. SOME DRIER AIR IS PUSHING EAST INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHAPED POPS FOR THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT TOWARDS THE HRRR. ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG BECAUSE
CLEARING THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES FOR THIS EVENING WITH LATEST SURFACE OBS AND
TOWARDS MODEL TREND WITH TEMPERATURES READINGS RISING A FEW DEGREES
THIS EVENING PRIOR TO FROPA THEN FALLING TONIGHT. THE REAL COLD AIR
LAGS TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COLD AIR TO HAVE A FEW SNOW
FLURRIES IN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS AROUND DAYBREAK. MORE CHANGES
LATER TONIGHT...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. CONVEYOR BELT OF HEAVY RAIN HAS
MOVED EAST INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN VA/NC. ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT LAGS
AND IT MAY TAKE MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE WE BEGIN TO SWAP THE
MOIST AIRMASS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH ANY DRYING COMING IN FROM
THE WEST. IN THE INTERIM...MAY HAVE TO ENTERTAIN AREAS OF FOG AS
ANY CLEARING THIS EVENING WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. RUNOFF FROM TODAYS RAINFALL WILL ALSO REMAIN
A CONCERN. EVEN THOUGH SMALL STREAMS WILL BE RECEDING...THE LARGER
RIVERS WILL ACTUALLY RISE. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
LOWER ROANOKE AND LOWER DAN RIVERS. OTHERS ARE BEING WATCHED
CLOSELY..SEE HYDRO SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE NON-DIURNAL AND ABOVE NORMAL...
READINGS ACTUALLY RISING A FEW DEGREES THIS EVENING PRIOR TO
FROPA. COLD AIR LAGS...SO NO PTYPE ISSUES TONIGHT. MAY SEE SOME
FLURRIES IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WV TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT THATS ABOUT
IT. ELSEWHERE...ANY REMAINING MOISTURE WOULD BE LIQUID...WITH MAIN
THREAT FOR ANY LINGERING RAINFALL EAST OF HIGHWAY 29.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
THE MAIN WEATHER RELATED CONCERNS WILL BE FOUND AT THE FAR WESTERN AND
FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER JUST OFF TO OUR EAST AS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
DEVELOPS A LOW ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL BUCKLE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES...COLDER AIR MOVING IN ON
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE GENERATING SOME MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME LOCATIONS AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL ALLOW A VIGOROUS UPPER TROF TO MOVE OVER THE
EASTERN US AND DEVELOP A STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
ALL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WITH JUST SOME SPRINKLES POSSIBLE
FOR THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHSIDE LATE ON SUNDAY.
BY MONDAY A MUCH DEEPER TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN US AND SET UP A
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER PATTERN...WHILE A COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN DEVELOPS
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT PLAINS...FOLLOWED BY A
TRANSFER OF ENERGY TO A DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.
THE COMBINATION OF THE COLDER AIR AND DEVELOPING SURFACE FEATURES LOOKS
LIKE IT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA MAINLY WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION SO WIDESPREAD WINTER WEATHER ISSUES
ARE NOT LIKELY.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 20S
WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 30S EAST OF THE RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN CIG/VIS CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN CONFIDENCE INCREASING WITH TIME.
THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS THAT IMPACTED THE REGION EARLIER IN
THE DAY WEDNESDAY HAVE SINCE PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREAS.
THUS...HAVE ENDED RESIDUAL SHRA FROM THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
TAF AREA.
EXPECT A HIGH DEGREE OF VARIABILITY IN CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT FINISHES ITS PASSAGE TO THE EAST...WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING PREDOMINANT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ESTABLISH
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE WEDGE WILL
HOLD EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SO KEPT LYH/DAN ENTERING INTO IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOWER CONFIDENCE
WEST...WERE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO JUMP AROUND...AND MIXING IS MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT. I EXPECT ALL SITES TO BE VFR FROM
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH EXCEPTIONS
POSSIBLE IN UPSLOPE AREAS THAT MAY SEE A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER. EXPECT
WINDS TO BECOME A BIT GUSTY AS THEY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
ESPECIALLY AT KBLF...KROA...AND KBCB.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
BY LATE THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TO PROVIDE
COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...AND WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST APPEARS TO STAY JUST SOUTH OF US SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLE
LIGHT PRECIP AND MVFR CIGS EDGING TOWARD THE VA/NC BORDER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY
FLASH FLOOD THREAT ON THE WANE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AFTER A
BUSY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH SEVERAL FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND
FLOOD ADVISORIES ISSUED. SEVERAL OF THESE WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BUT THE HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CWA
BY EARLY EVENING. WE ARE THEN LEFT WITH THE AFTERMATH AS SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL RECEDE QUICKLY BUT NUMEROUS ROADS WILL
REMAIN CLOSED DUE TO STANDING WATER AND PONDING. MEANWHILE RUNOFF
INTO LARGER STREAMS AND MAINSTEM RIVERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
WITH MANY RIVERS RISING VERY RAPIDLY. RIVER FLOODING IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST ONLY ALONG THE LOWER DAN AND ROANOKE RIVERS WITH MINOR
CATEGORY FLOODING EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ON THESE RIVERS.
SEE FLOOD WARNING PRODUCTS /WBCFLWRNK/ FOR DETAILS ON THIS
FLOODING. ESSENTIALLY EVERY OTHER MAJOR RIVER...INCLUDING THE
YADKIN...JAMES...GREENBRIER AND UPPER NEW (ABOVE RADFORD) ARE
FORECAST TO SEE SIGNIFICANT RISES BUT ONLY TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE ACTION STAGE...REMAINING SEVERAL FEET BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
THESE RIVERS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVIATIONS FROM THE FORECAST AS MINOR FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...MBS/WP
HYDROLOGY...PC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1247 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1034 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016
STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN A TAD DELAYED IN PUSHING EAST ACROSS
LEXINGTON AND INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. STILL LOOKING FOR THIS LOW
STRATUS TO SET IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION HELPS DROP
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW-MID 30S BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. STILL
POSSIBLE TO SEE A SPRINKLE TONIGHT MIXED WITH A FLURRY OR TWO
LATER ON AS TEMPERATURES DROP...BUT NOTHING TO CAUSE ANY CONCERN
REGARDING MEASURABLE AMOUNTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016
CLOUDS QUICKLY CLEARED OUT BEHIND THE FRONT EARLIER TODAY AS DRY
AIR FILTERED INTO THE REGION. THANKS TO PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...HIGHS ARE TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL TAKE A TUMBLE TO NEAR FREEZING OR JUST
BELOW...EVEN WITH LLVL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE
LLVL MOISTURE WILL GET TRAPPED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT
AND MORNING PERIOD BEFORE CLEARING OUT SOMETIME IN THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST...USHERING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWING TOMORROW WITH HIGHS
ONLY NIPPING AT THE 40 DEGREE MARK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS
BUILDING INTO THE COMMONWEALTH THURSDAY EVENING MAKING FOR A
CHILLY NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 20 DEGREES. A SUNNY
AND SEASONABLE DAY IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016
THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTING
TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS FROM THE MS VALLEY. ALSO TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND NORTH INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH A COUPLE OF UNPHASED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BEGIN THE PERIOD EXTENDING FROM THE OH VALLEY
SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST STATES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL WORK ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE SHOULD TRACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHEAST WHILE THE SOUTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL TAKE THE BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA TO START THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE
AT THE SFC. THE RESULT SHOULD BE DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. LOWS ON FRI NIGHT
SHOULD BE ON THE COLD SIDE IN THE VALLEYS...WITH THE COLDEST SPOTS
PROBABLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS WITH 20S ELSEWHERE.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE AXIS OF TROUGHING AT 500 MB
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND IT FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME THOUGH...THE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS SHOULD BEGIN TO AMPLIFY
WITH RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST AND TROUGHING BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK...THE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WITH THE RIDGING REMAINING IN
PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND A
TROUGH MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN CONUS. MODEL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL IN THE DETAILS OF TIMING
AND EXACTLY HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION. MODEL AGREEMENT IS
BETTER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THAT A SHORTWAVE SHOULD TRACK FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
CLOSE OFF BY THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH A SFC LOW ALSO TRACKING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. THIS SHOULD USHER IN THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AIRMASS THAT
WILL BRING A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THOUGH THE
MAGNITUDE BELOW NORMAL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. A MODEL COMPROMISE
SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO EXCEED THE FREEZING MARK IN
MANY LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY BEFORE STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE
UPPER 20S ON WEDNESDAY.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED DURING THIS PERIOD
FROM SUNDAY EVENING INTO MIDWEEK...AS WEAK SHORTWAVES PASS AND
MODELS INDICATE SOME MOISTURE WITH THESE AS WELL. DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAVING AN UPSLOPE
COMPONENT FOR PORTIONS OF THIS PERIOD. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
FORM TIME TO TIME ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLY AND POTENTIAL HAS
CONTINUED TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016
A LLVL STRATUS DECK IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS EASTERN
KY...WITH LOW END VFR TO HIGH END MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT ALL THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT. ENOUGH DRY AIR CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE
LOCKED IN NEAR THE SURFACE TO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT AT THIS
TIME...AS W/NW WINDS REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 5 KNOTS. CAA
PRODUCING GUSTS IN THE 15KT RANGE WILL FURTHER REDUCE ANY FOG
CONCERNS. HOWEVER...COULD SEE A SPRINKLE OR EVEN A SNOW FLURRY
LATER TONIGHT FALL FROM THIS STRATUS. EXPECT THESE VFR/MVFR
CEILINGS TO MIX OUT THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH SCT CLOUDS NEAR
3000FT COULD REMAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE NW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...DIMINISHING TO GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GUSEMAN
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JMW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1155 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EST Wed Feb 3 2016
Main forecast concerns in the short term are sprinkles/clouds this
evening and temperatures. Overall, relatively benign weather in the
short term.
Stratus deck upstream associated with the advancing upper trough
axis will swing through southern Indiana and central Kentucky late
this afternoon and into the evening hours. 12z ILX sounding and HRRR
soundings for the area this evening show this stratus to be about 50
to maybe 100 mb thick and with weak lift present this evening, there
could be a few sprinkles across southern Indiana and north central
Kentucky. HRRR simulated reflectivity has been consistent showing a
thin band over the area between 4 and 10p, so have maintained slight
chance of sprinkles in the forecast. Winds will remain gusty to near
20 to perhaps 25 mph at times through the evening as well with
temperatures falling into the mid/upper 30s.
Surface high pressure moves across the area Thursday and Thursday
night, setting up a cool but dry day. Plan on highs in the upper 30s
to around 40 degrees. We`ll have some morning stratus around but as
the high advances east, this should erode and push east giving way
to some sun by afternoon. Thursday night lows look to fall into the
mid 20s with mostly clear skies and lighter winds.
.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 250 PM EST Wed Feb 3 2016
The main forecast concern in the long term period is precipitation
chances and temperatures next week.
Friday through the weekend the region will be under the influence of
high pressure at the surface and zonal flow aloft. A couple weather
systems look to pass well south and north of the area, but southern
Indiana and central Kentucky will generally see seasonal
temperatures and dry conditions.
By late Sunday night into Monday, a surface low and anomalously deep
upper trough looks to swing through the Upper Midwest and Great
Lakes. This will spill colder air down into the area and chances for
precipitation. Depending on temperatures, rain may mix with or
changeover to snow Monday. As the upper trough hangs overhead and
more cold air arrives Monday night and Tuesday, temperatures would
be cold enough to support all snow. The GFS 850 mb temperatures are
considerably colder than the ECMWF and GEM 3.12z solutions. A model
consensus trended downward from the previous forecast, with highs
Tuesday and Wednesday in the mid 20s to low 30s and morning
temperatures in the teens. This may trend further down if the GFS
solutions end up verifying. Precipitation chances were brought up
into the 30 to 50 percent range Monday through Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1153 PM EST Wed Feb 3 2016
The main question for the TAFS overnight into the morning hours will
be how much ceilings will lower and when. Obs to the north show MVFR
ceiling continue to creep closer to SDF and LEX. These two sites are
expected to lower to MVFR overnight, though they should stay above
fuel alternate. BWG is more of a question mark as a break in the
clouds is actually headed towards the site at this time. However,
after a couple hour break, lower clouds may move back in. All sites
should improve to VFR by mid day and stay VFR into the evening.
Winds early this morning will remain out of the west to WNW and
could be a bit gusty occasionally. They should relax towards
sunrise.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........ZT
Aviation..........EER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1046 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS OVER A VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AREAS OF LIFR DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG OVER THE
NE THIS EVENING INCLUDING CAO. BELIEVE THEY WILL STAY N AND E OF
TCC THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL. GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES ELSEWHERE. WHERE THERE IS FRESH SNOWPACK MEANS THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOW CIGS/VSBY RESTRICTIONS. MOST AT RISK AMONG THE TAF SITES
IS LVS AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TCC. 40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...501 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016...
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE NE/EC WHERE SNOW
CONTINUES TO FALL. CLAYTON REPORTED 0.4 INCHES WHEN THE SNOWFALL
WENT THRU THERE...SO HAVE ADDED SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMS AS FAR
SOUTH AS KTCC. HRRR AND NAM MODEL PROGS SUGGEST THIS WILL DIMINISH
BY 06Z. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.
34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...456 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLD MVFR CONDITIONS OVER A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF NE NM
THROUGH ABOUT 6Z DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES TCC. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS OVER A VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT AND FRESH SNOWPACK MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS/VIS RESTRICTIONS. MOST AT RISK IS LVS AND
FMN. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT INTO TAF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...325 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A QUIET AND COLD PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS
AREAWIDE. SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER FOR AWHILE INTO THE
EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
STATE...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT FOR PRECIPITATION...NOTHING THAT
SIGNIFICANT. YET ANOTHER COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCES WILL
WILL BRUSH NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO BETWEEN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT WITH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY QUITE
LIMITED...NOT MUCH OTHER THAN A FEW SHOW SHOWERS OR PATCHES OF
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED AND LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO HALF
OF THE STATE. BY THE WEEKEND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES...SATURDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST AND THEN
SUNDAY MORE SO ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH. FURTHER WARMING IS
EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST MID OR LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL...LOOKING AHEAD THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE MUCH LESS
UNSETTLED THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS PAST WEEK. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TO NE NM SHOULD BOW
OUT GRACEFULLY LATER TONIGHT. TONIGHT WILL BE ONE OF THE COLDEST
NIGHTS OF THE SEASON SO FAR WITH SOME MINIMUMS IN THE COLDER MTN
VALLEYS OF THE NORTH LIKELY TO PLUMMET TO BETWEEN 20 AND 35
DEGREES BELOW ZERO AS SKIES CLEAR OUT. A BIT OF FREEZING FOG NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION IN SOME OF THESE LOCALES...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
QUITE HIGH ENOUGH AND ANY THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE QUITE
LOCALIZED.
ONE MORE BOUT WITH A COUPLE OF MOISTURE LIMITED DISTURBANCES ALOFT
EXPECTED FOR THE THU TO FRI PERIOD AND THE FCST MODELS ARE FINALLY
IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN THAT THEY WILL BRUSH THE N CENTRAL AND NE
PART OF THE STATE. ONLY TRIMMED THE MOSTLY LOW POPS A BIT MORE
OVER THAT WHICH WAS PARED OFF OVER THE LAST 2 MAIN FCST
PACKAGES...KEEPING COVERAGE SOMEWHAT LARGER THAN MAJORITY OF FCST
MODELS INDICATED OUT OF CONCERN THAT...AT OR NEAR THE LAST
MINUTE...THERE STILL MAY BE SOMEWHAT OF A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
TRACK OF THESE IMPULSES AS SEEMS TO OCCUR A BIT MORE OFTEN THAN
NOT. BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS TO BE THE CASE AREAWIDE INTO THE
END OF THE WEEK. BY THE WEEKEND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES...SATURDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST AND THEN
SUNDAY MORE SO ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH. FURTHER WARMING IS
EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST MID OR LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS THE RULE AND A CONTINUED PRECIP FREE
SCENARIO WITH SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT NOT FAR WEST OF THE
STATE.
43
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE RH/DEWPOINT GRIDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
VERY STRONG MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL SNEAK IN FROM THE
WEST/SOUTH. A PACIFIC WAVE PASSAGE ON FRIDAY WILL BEAT IT BACK SOME
BUT THEN IT SHOULD RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.
VERY TRICKY RH FORECASTING SO PLAN FOR WILD SWINGS. OTHERWISE VERY
FEW CHANGES OVERALL AS THE FORECAST TRENDS DRIER AND DRIER.
VENTILATION APPEARS TO BE THE LOWEST ON THURSDAY. THE WAVE IS STILL
NOT FAST ENOUGH TO RAISE MIXING HEIGHTS BUT IS EXPECTED TO RAISE
BOTH MIXING HEIGHT AND TRANSPORT WIND ON FRIDAY. THE FRIDAY VENT
RATE FORECAST HAS JUMPED AROUND THE PAST FEW DAYS SO PLAN ON SOME
CONTINUED VARIABILITY UNTIL THE MODELS RESOLVE THE WAVE BETTER. VENT
RATES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE WEEKEND. A VERY
STRONG RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST COAST AND ACT TO
DEFLECT MOST OF THE SYSTEM PASSAGES TO THE EAST. MODELS STILL SHOW
WAVE FOR LATER SUNDAY AND IF IT WERE TO TRACK BACK TO THE
WEST...THEN VENT RATES WOULD IMPROVE.
RIDGING IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK. ONCE AGAIN...THE PLACEMENT OF
THE RIDGE WILL BE CRUCIAL IN TERMS OF VENT RATE FORECASTS. IF IT
WERE TO STAY FURTHER WEST THEN VENT RATES WOULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER.
EITHER WAY...THEY LOOK PRETTY LOW NEXT WEEK COMPARED TO WHAT
OCCURRED AND WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK. A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRY
INTRUSION WILL ALSO BE FOUND WITH THE RIDGE. DEWPOINT FORECASTS FROM
THE MODELS APPEARED TO BE TOO HIGH SO LOWERED THEM ACROSS THE BOARD.
SNOW MELT WILL MAKE IT TRICKY ACROSS THE LOW/MID ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD EVENTUALLY WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL STATUS SOMETIME
DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
50
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
118 AM EST THU FEB 04 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT... AS
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING... THEN COOL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 740 PM WEDNESDAY...
LATEST RADAR SHOWS THAT THE THREAT OF CONVECTION AND HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS HAS MOSTLY MOVED EAST OF OUR CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING OUR FAR E/SE COUNTIES IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN...WHERE SOME POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE...FARTHER WEST THE CHARACTER OF THE
RAIN HAS TRANSITIONED TO MORE OF A STRATIFORM OFF-AND-ON LIGHT RAIN.
THE COLD FRONT...AS OF 00Z...WAS STILL LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST AND AS A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT
LIFTS OUT TO OUR NE. THE LATEST HRRR ALSO SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO...
THUS HAVE TWEAKED GRIDS TO SHOW POPS GRADUALLY DECREASING OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA...WHILE MAINTAINING AT LEAST A
GOOD-CHANCE POP ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF AS THOSE ZONES WILL LIKELY
SEE OFF-AND-ON RAIN OR SHOWERS PERSIST MOST OF THE NIGHT. BY
DAYBREAK...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWING DOWN ALONG OR JUST EAST OF
I-95...AND SO MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE CONFINED MOSTLY ALONG AND
EAST OF I-95. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AS THURSDAY
MORNING PROGRESSES...THANKS TO A LOW PRESSURE WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE
NE ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WILL SPREAD SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN BACK
WESTWARD AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS OUR NW/TRIAD ZONES
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TO THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR
WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE LATER TO ARRIVE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM WEDNESDAY...
PRECIP SHOULD BE ONGOING TO START THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT SLOWLY INCHES TO THE EAST. THE FRONT WILL NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR
THE AREA UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHEN A KICKER WAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. IN FACT IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIP MAY HOLD ON SLIGHTLY LONGER
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK ALONG THE
FRONT FURTHER SLOWING DOWN ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION. WITH THIS IN
MIND...PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES AND HIGHEST QPF VALUES
WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT ON THURSDAY...BUT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN/EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL FINALLY MOVE OUT OF
THE BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT IS PUSHED
OFFSHORE. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN WITH THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S/LOWER 60S ON THURSDAY AND EVEN COOLER BY FRIDAY ONCE THE FRONT
FINALLY PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S/LOW 50S... WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 20S/LOWER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM WEDNESDAY...
PRECIP WILL LIKELY RETURN TO THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY (CONSIDERABLY EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS) AS A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST US AND INDUCES A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVES UP THE COAST. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOMEWHAT
BETTER AGREEMENT...THUS CONFIDENCE (IN AT LEAST PRECIP COVERAGE) IS
SLOWLY INCREASING. PRECIP SHOULD MOVE BACK INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.
WHERE LOWER CONFIDENCE EXISTS IS WHETHER OR NOT P-TYPE WILL BE AN
ISSUE. AT THIS TIME...GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROFILES...WILL
INTRODUCE RAIN AND/OR SNOW AT BOTH THE ONSET LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN AGAIN AS IT PULLS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER EVEN DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING
DOWN SOME ARCTIC AIR OUT OF CANADA...WITH THE AREA SEEING HIGHS IN
THE 30S AND 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW WITH
RESPECT TO HOW THIS WILL ULTIMATELY EVOLVE...THEREFORE WILL NOT PUT
A LOT OF DETAIL IN THE PRECIP FORECAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ARCTIC
AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...P-TYPE ISSUES COULD POTENTIALLY BECOME A
PROBLEM FOR NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 115 AM THURSDAY...
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS -- MOSTLY IFR -- WILL DOMINATE AT ALL SITES
THIS MORNING... ALTHOUGH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR THEN VFR IS EXPECTED AT
INT/GSO TOWARD DAYBREAK. RDU/RWI/FAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR OR
PERHAPS LOW-END MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HRS.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS WILL TRACK SLOWLY
EASTWARD TODAY... REACHING COASTAL NC TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT... RESULTING
IN MULTIPLE CLOUD DECKS OVER OUR AREA THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. IFR/LIFR CIGS AT INT/GSO ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR
THEN VFR IN THE 11Z-14Z TIME FRAME AND REMAIN VFR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. FURTHER EAST HOWEVER... CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD
IN THE 500-1500 FT AGL RANGE THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD... WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR OR IFR ESPECIALLY FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON (MAINLY 15Z-22Z) AS A WEAK TROUGH
ALOFT CROSSES THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS INITIALLY LIGHT FROM THE SW
WILL SWING AROUND TO NW THEN FROM THE NORTH OR NNE... FIRST AT
INT/GSO EARLY THIS MORNING THEN TO RDU BY MID MORNING AND TO RWI/FAY
BY LATE MORNING. SOME GUSTY WINDS FROM THE NNE UP TO 20 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY FRI MORNING... SUB-VFR CONDITIONS (MOSTLY
IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS) WILL HOLD UNTIL NEAR OR SOON AFTER DAYBREAK
FRI... WHEN A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER AND EXITS
THE AREA. THEN... VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY... ALTHOUGH ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING
A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATE IN THE PERIOD... MAINLY SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1230 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
TRAILING SOUTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY...PASSING OVERHEAD FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1130 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
UPDATED GRIDS TO REMOVE RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND TO
DELAY ONSET OF UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE IN
SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA.
COLD AIR REMAINS WELL BACK IN THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE DEW POINT
FRONT. WARM AIR REMAINING OVER COLD GROUND TONIGHT HAS ALSO
CREATED AREAS OF FOG ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FOG WILL
SCOUR AS MIXING INCREASES WITH THE PASSING OF THE COLD FRONT
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
AS OF 857 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE WEST. ADJUSTED POPS ONCE AGAIN FOR
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IN GENERAL...TREND BACK THE WESTERN
EDGE OF SHOWERS. REGIONAL WSR-88D CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. LEANED
THE POPS TOWARDS THE HRRR. THE HIRESWARW-EAST AND RAP WERE JUST A
LITTLE SLOWER ON THE EXIT OF THE RAIN. OVERALL...HIGHRES MODELS
WERE FAIRLY CLOSE ON TIMING OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE COLD
AIR WAS LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES FOR THURSDAY MORNING.
AS OF 655 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
A COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE AXIS OF THE HEAVY RAINS HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF OUR AREA INTO EASTERN VIRGINIA AND EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. KFCX 88D SHOWED SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. SOME DRIER AIR IS PUSHING EAST INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHAPED POPS FOR THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT TOWARDS THE HRRR. ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG BECAUSE
CLEARING THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES FOR THIS EVENING WITH LATEST SURFACE OBS AND
TOWARDS MODEL TREND WITH TEMPERATURES READINGS RISING A FEW DEGREES
THIS EVENING PRIOR TO FROPA THEN FALLING TONIGHT. THE REAL COLD AIR
LAGS TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COLD AIR TO HAVE A FEW SNOW
FLURRIES IN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS AROUND DAYBREAK. MORE CHANGES
LATER TONIGHT...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. CONVEYOR BELT OF HEAVY RAIN HAS
MOVED EAST INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN VA/NC. ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT LAGS
AND IT MAY TAKE MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE WE BEGIN TO SWAP THE
MOIST AIRMASS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH ANY DRYING COMING IN FROM
THE WEST. IN THE INTERIM...MAY HAVE TO ENTERTAIN AREAS OF FOG AS
ANY CLEARING THIS EVENING WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. RUNOFF FROM TODAYS RAINFALL WILL ALSO REMAIN
A CONCERN. EVEN THOUGH SMALL STREAMS WILL BE RECEDING...THE LARGER
RIVERS WILL ACTUALLY RISE. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
LOWER ROANOKE AND LOWER DAN RIVERS. OTHERS ARE BEING WATCHED
CLOSELY..SEE HYDRO SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE NON-DIURNAL AND ABOVE NORMAL...
READINGS ACTUALLY RISING A FEW DEGREES THIS EVENING PRIOR TO
FROPA. COLD AIR LAGS...SO NO PTYPE ISSUES TONIGHT. MAY SEE SOME
FLURRIES IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WV TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT THATS ABOUT
IT. ELSEWHERE...ANY REMAINING MOISTURE WOULD BE LIQUID...WITH MAIN
THREAT FOR ANY LINGERING RAINFALL EAST OF HIGHWAY 29.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
THE MAIN WEATHER RELATED CONCERNS WILL BE FOUND AT THE FAR WESTERN AND
FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER JUST OFF TO OUR EAST AS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
DEVELOPS A LOW ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL BUCKLE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES...COLDER AIR MOVING IN ON
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE GENERATING SOME MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME LOCATIONS AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL ALLOW A VIGOROUS UPPER TROF TO MOVE OVER THE
EASTERN US AND DEVELOP A STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
ALL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WITH JUST SOME SPRINKLES POSSIBLE
FOR THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHSIDE LATE ON SUNDAY.
BY MONDAY A MUCH DEEPER TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN US AND SET UP A
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER PATTERN...WHILE A COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN DEVELOPS
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT PLAINS...FOLLOWED BY A
TRANSFER OF ENERGY TO A DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.
THE COMBINATION OF THE COLDER AIR AND DEVELOPING SURFACE FEATURES LOOKS
LIKE IT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA MAINLY WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION SO WIDESPREAD WINTER WEATHER ISSUES
ARE NOT LIKELY.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 20S
WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 30S EAST OF THE RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST THURSDAY...
THE COLD FRONT IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH A
COLD GROUND AND WARM AIR...DENSE FOG DEVELOPED AT BCB/ROA/LYH. AS
THE FRONT JOGS EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...MIXING WILL
INCREASE SCOUR FOG AT BCB/ROA AROUND 09Z THURSDAY AND AT LYH
AROUND 11Z. ALL SITES SHOULD HAVE VFR VISIBILITIES AFTER SUNRISE.
CEILINGS WILL LIFT AT ROA/BCB/LYH/DAN AS THE FRONT TRACKS EAST
AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...BLF/LWB WILL DROP
TO MVFR AS MOISTURE POOLS ALONG WESTERN SLOPES AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ENTERS THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY...BUT A HIGHER CHANCE TOWARDS EVENING
AS THE TROUGH GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TO PROVIDE COLDER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS...AND WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
APPEARS TO STAY JUST SOUTH OF US SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP
AND MVFR CIGS EDGING TOWARD THE VA/NC BORDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY
FLASH FLOOD THREAT ON THE WANE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AFTER A
BUSY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH SEVERAL FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND
FLOOD ADVISORIES ISSUED. SEVERAL OF THESE WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BUT THE HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CWA
BY EARLY EVENING. WE ARE THEN LEFT WITH THE AFTERMATH AS SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL RECEDE QUICKLY BUT NUMEROUS ROADS WILL
REMAIN CLOSED DUE TO STANDING WATER AND PONDING. MEANWHILE RUNOFF
INTO LARGER STREAMS AND MAINSTEM RIVERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
WITH MANY RIVERS RISING VERY RAPIDLY. RIVER FLOODING IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST ONLY ALONG THE LOWER DAN AND ROANOKE RIVERS WITH MINOR
CATEGORY FLOODING EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ON THESE RIVERS.
SEE FLOOD WARNING PRODUCTS /WBCFLWRNK/ FOR DETAILS ON THIS
FLOODING. ESSENTIALLY EVERY OTHER MAJOR RIVER...INCLUDING THE
YADKIN...JAMES...GREENBRIER AND UPPER NEW (ABOVE RADFORD) ARE
FORECAST TO SEE SIGNIFICANT RISES BUT ONLY TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE ACTION STAGE...REMAINING SEVERAL FEET BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
THESE RIVERS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVIATIONS FROM THE FORECAST AS MINOR FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...KK/PM/RCS
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...RCS
HYDROLOGY...PC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1141 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
TRAILING SOUTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY...PASSING OVERHEAD FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1130 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
UPDATED GRIDS TO REMOVE RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND TO
DELAY ONSET OF UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE IN
SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA.
COLD AIR REMAINS WELL BACK IN THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE DEW POINT
FRONT. WARM AIR REMAINING OVER COLD GROUND TONIGHT HAS ALSO
CREATED AREAS OF FOG ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FOG WILL
SCOUR AS MIXING INCREASES WITH THE PASSING OF THE COLD FRONT
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
AS OF 857 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE WEST. ADJUSTED POPS ONCE AGAIN FOR
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IN GENERAL...TREND BACK THE WESTERN
EDGE OF SHOWERS. REGIONAL WSR-88D CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. LEANED
THE POPS TOWARDS THE HRRR. THE HIRESWARW-EAST AND RAP WERE JUST A
LITTLE SLOWER ON THE EXIT OF THE RAIN. OVERALL...HIGHRES MODELS
WERE FAIRLY CLOSE ON TIMING OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE COLD
AIR WAS LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES FOR THURSDAY MORNING.
AS OF 655 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
A COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE AXIS OF THE HEAVY RAINS HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF OUR AREA INTO EASTERN VIRGINIA AND EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. KFCX 88D SHOWED SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. SOME DRIER AIR IS PUSHING EAST INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHAPED POPS FOR THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT TOWARDS THE HRRR. ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG BECAUSE
CLEARING THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES FOR THIS EVENING WITH LATEST SURFACE OBS AND
TOWARDS MODEL TREND WITH TEMPERATURES READINGS RISING A FEW DEGREES
THIS EVENING PRIOR TO FROPA THEN FALLING TONIGHT. THE REAL COLD AIR
LAGS TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COLD AIR TO HAVE A FEW SNOW
FLURRIES IN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS AROUND DAYBREAK. MORE CHANGES
LATER TONIGHT...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. CONVEYOR BELT OF HEAVY RAIN HAS
MOVED EAST INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN VA/NC. ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT LAGS
AND IT MAY TAKE MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE WE BEGIN TO SWAP THE
MOIST AIRMASS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH ANY DRYING COMING IN FROM
THE WEST. IN THE INTERIM...MAY HAVE TO ENTERTAIN AREAS OF FOG AS
ANY CLEARING THIS EVENING WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. RUNOFF FROM TODAYS RAINFALL WILL ALSO REMAIN
A CONCERN. EVEN THOUGH SMALL STREAMS WILL BE RECEDING...THE LARGER
RIVERS WILL ACTUALLY RISE. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
LOWER ROANOKE AND LOWER DAN RIVERS. OTHERS ARE BEING WATCHED
CLOSELY..SEE HYDRO SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE NON-DIURNAL AND ABOVE NORMAL...
READINGS ACTUALLY RISING A FEW DEGREES THIS EVENING PRIOR TO
FROPA. COLD AIR LAGS...SO NO PTYPE ISSUES TONIGHT. MAY SEE SOME
FLURRIES IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WV TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT THATS ABOUT
IT. ELSEWHERE...ANY REMAINING MOISTURE WOULD BE LIQUID...WITH MAIN
THREAT FOR ANY LINGERING RAINFALL EAST OF HIGHWAY 29.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
THE MAIN WEATHER RELATED CONCERNS WILL BE FOUND AT THE FAR WESTERN AND
FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER JUST OFF TO OUR EAST AS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
DEVELOPS A LOW ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL BUCKLE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES...COLDER AIR MOVING IN ON
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE GENERATING SOME MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME LOCATIONS AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL ALLOW A VIGOROUS UPPER TROF TO MOVE OVER THE
EASTERN US AND DEVELOP A STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
ALL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WITH JUST SOME SPRINKLES POSSIBLE
FOR THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHSIDE LATE ON SUNDAY.
BY MONDAY A MUCH DEEPER TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN US AND SET UP A
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER PATTERN...WHILE A COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN DEVELOPS
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT PLAINS...FOLLOWED BY A
TRANSFER OF ENERGY TO A DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.
THE COMBINATION OF THE COLDER AIR AND DEVELOPING SURFACE FEATURES LOOKS
LIKE IT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA MAINLY WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION SO WIDESPREAD WINTER WEATHER ISSUES
ARE NOT LIKELY.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 20S
WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 30S EAST OF THE RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN CIG/VIS CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN CONFIDENCE INCREASING WITH TIME.
THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS THAT IMPACTED THE REGION EARLIER IN
THE DAY WEDNESDAY HAVE SINCE PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREAS.
THUS...HAVE ENDED RESIDUAL SHRA FROM THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
TAF AREA.
EXPECT A HIGH DEGREE OF VARIABILITY IN CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT FINISHES ITS PASSAGE TO THE EAST...WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING PREDOMINANT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ESTABLISH
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE WEDGE WILL
HOLD EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SO KEPT LYH/DAN ENTERING INTO IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOWER CONFIDENCE
WEST...WERE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO JUMP AROUND...AND MIXING IS MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT. I EXPECT ALL SITES TO BE VFR FROM
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH EXCEPTIONS
POSSIBLE IN UPSLOPE AREAS THAT MAY SEE A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER. EXPECT
WINDS TO BECOME A BIT GUSTY AS THEY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
ESPECIALLY AT KBLF...KROA...AND KBCB.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
BY LATE THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TO PROVIDE
COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...AND WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST APPEARS TO STAY JUST SOUTH OF US SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLE
LIGHT PRECIP AND MVFR CIGS EDGING TOWARD THE VA/NC BORDER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY
FLASH FLOOD THREAT ON THE WANE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AFTER A
BUSY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH SEVERAL FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND
FLOOD ADVISORIES ISSUED. SEVERAL OF THESE WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BUT THE HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CWA
BY EARLY EVENING. WE ARE THEN LEFT WITH THE AFTERMATH AS SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL RECEDE QUICKLY BUT NUMEROUS ROADS WILL
REMAIN CLOSED DUE TO STANDING WATER AND PONDING. MEANWHILE RUNOFF
INTO LARGER STREAMS AND MAINSTEM RIVERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
WITH MANY RIVERS RISING VERY RAPIDLY. RIVER FLOODING IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST ONLY ALONG THE LOWER DAN AND ROANOKE RIVERS WITH MINOR
CATEGORY FLOODING EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ON THESE RIVERS.
SEE FLOOD WARNING PRODUCTS /WBCFLWRNK/ FOR DETAILS ON THIS
FLOODING. ESSENTIALLY EVERY OTHER MAJOR RIVER...INCLUDING THE
YADKIN...JAMES...GREENBRIER AND UPPER NEW (ABOVE RADFORD) ARE
FORECAST TO SEE SIGNIFICANT RISES BUT ONLY TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE ACTION STAGE...REMAINING SEVERAL FEET BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
THESE RIVERS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVIATIONS FROM THE FORECAST AS MINOR FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...KK/PM/RCS
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...MBS/WP
HYDROLOGY...PC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1006 PM PST WED FEB 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Light to moderate snow accumulations will accompany the passage
of a storm system tonight. Another system will bring rain and
mountain snow Friday night into Saturday. Breezy to windy
conditions are expected to occur late Friday into Saturday. Strong
high pressure will bring several days of dry weather Sunday into
the middle part of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Update: Overall forecast through Thursday morning looks in good
shape with only a few minor changes to the current highlights. An
upper level trough over western Washington this evening will track
east across Eastern Washington and north Idaho tonight. Moist
isentropic lift is overtaking the region with widespread light
snow expected this evening with a few exceptions. Main exception
is south of I-90 where some of the lower spots such as Othello, La
Crosse, and Lewiston should see mainly rain. Also, strong
downslope flow off area mountains may result in only light precip
totals for the Lewiston-Clarkston Valley. Otherwise a widespread
light snow event is expected but will become enhanced early
Thursday morning as a band of brief moderate to heavy snow
develops as the upper trough axis swings inland and a short wave
tracking through combined with increased mid level instability
occurs. The HRRR has been placing this band between Spokane and
Pullman and with some support from the NAM and GFS will be
extending the winter weather advisories through 10 am Thursday for
the Spokane and Coeur D`Alene area. This area of enhanced snowfall
will track into the Central Panhandle Mountains as well Thursday
morning. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A low pressure system will spread mainly snow over the
region through Thursday morning. Snow will continue over Eastern
Washington and north Idaho tonight but will be decreasing or
ending at KEAT/KMWH between 6-8z. Another wave tracks through
12-18z bringing another round of snow showers for
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW. Abundant boundary layer moisture and snow
will result in IFR/MVFR conditions for most of the area into
Thursday morning. Some limited improvement is projected around
PUW/GEG/SFF/COE in the afternoon. But there will be better chance
of reaching VFR conditions elsewhere. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 29 37 28 41 33 40 / 100 50 10 10 80 20
Coeur d`Alene 28 35 30 40 33 39 / 100 70 20 20 80 60
Pullman 33 39 32 43 36 43 / 100 80 20 10 70 40
Lewiston 37 45 34 49 40 50 / 70 50 10 10 50 20
Colville 29 36 28 37 33 38 / 100 40 10 20 80 20
Sandpoint 28 34 30 37 33 37 / 100 70 20 30 80 70
Kellogg 28 33 30 37 32 36 / 100 100 60 30 80 70
Moses Lake 30 41 29 43 34 45 / 90 20 0 10 60 10
Wenatchee 27 38 27 38 32 41 / 90 10 0 20 70 10
Omak 25 35 26 35 30 37 / 100 10 0 30 80 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for Coeur
d`Alene Area.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for Idaho
Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST Thursday for Central
Panhandle Mountains-Northern Panhandle.
WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Thursday for Northeast
Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Upper Columbia Basin.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for Washington
Palouse-Spokane area.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM PST Thursday for East Slopes
Northern Cascades-Okanogan Valley-Waterville Plateau.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
917 PM PST WED FEB 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A RATHER STRONG MOIST PACIFIC OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE
ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THIS EVENING WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW AND SOME COASTAL WIND. A SECONDARY TRAILING SHORT WAVE WILL KEEP
SHOWERS GOING TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER NEAR THE COAST. THE
MOISTURE WILL THEN MERGE WITH A WARM FRONT AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM ON THURSDAY FOR MORE AREAS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ON THURSDAY NIGHT FOR DRYING. ANOTHER
STRONG PACIFIC OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BRING MORE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
TO THE AREA LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLY EVEN
STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE COAST THAN TODAY. AN UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR DRY WEATHER
WITH EAST WINDS NEAR THE GORGE AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG AWAY FROM THE
GORGE.
&&
.COLD FRONT CROSSED THE CASCADE CREST EARLIER THIS EVENING WITH
SHOWERS STARTING TO INCREASE. THE INCREASE IS IN RESPONSE TO
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED
JUST OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND AND STRETCHING SOUTH TO ABOUT COOS BAY.
THE PRIMARY FRONT EARLIER THIS EVENING WAS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO
SCOUR OUT A COLD POOL OVER THE CENTRAL GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER
VALLEY. RECEIVED REPORTS OF SNOW DOWN TO ABOUT 600 FEET ON BOTH
SIDES OF THE COLUMBIA. LOOKS LIKE AROUND AN INCH FELL NEAR 1500 FEET
AND PRESUME SMALLER AMOUNTS LOWER IN THE VALLEY AND OFF THE GORGE
BOTTOM. SNOW HAS SINCE TAPERED OFF TO SHOWERS AND FEEL ANY MORE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL COME IN SHORT AND LIGHT BURSTS AS SHOWERS GET
TORN APART BY THE CASCADES. MAY PICK UP CLOSE TO ANOTHER INCH TOTAL
FOR THE UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY ENDING AROUND DAYBREAK BUT
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. MODELS DO INDICATE WINDS SHOULD SWITCH
WESTERLY AND BRING A LITTLE BIT OF WARMER AIR ALONG WITH THEM. THUS
FEEL THE SNOW LEVELS WILL LIFT BACK UP CLOSER TO 2000 FEET. EVEN IF
THE WARMING DOESNT MATERIALIZE...THE CAT`S OUT OF THE BAG AND FEEL
ISSUING A SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL GORGE WOULD NOT HAVE MUCH
USEFULNESS GIVEN THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. ELSEWHERE...MANY OF THE SNOTEL AND ODOT REPORTS GIVE
ABOUT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS INCLUDING THE GOVERNMENT CAMP
AREA UP TO AROUND 6000 FEET ACROSS THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES. WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORIES IN PLACE THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE MAINLY THROUGH DAYBREAK TOMORROW WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER
COUPLE INCHES DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. UPDATES WILL BE AVAILABLE
SHORTLY. /JBONK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 PM PST WED FEB 3 2016/
SHORT TERM...THE NEXT PACIFIC OCCLUDED FRONT CONTINUED ITS MARCH
TOWARD THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST AROUND 3 OR 4 PM...AND THROUGH THE
INLAND AREAS IN THE EVENING. THE FRONT IS FED BY ABOUT 1.3 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...AND IS PRODUCING DECENT PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET WITH THIS
FRONT...AND WE SHOULD GET AT LEAST MID RANGE GALES OVER THE WATERS
AND SOME DECENT WINDS ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY AT BEACHES AND
HEADLANDS...BUT LIKELY BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA.
THERE IS A SECONDARY VORTICITY MAX/SHORT WAVE CROSSING 130W THIS
AFTERNOON THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT FOR MORE SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER NEAR THE
COAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING INTO THURSDAY. THEN MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM NOW OUT BETWEEN 140W AND 150W SPREADS IN
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT SALEM
OR CORVALLIS NORTHWARD...FOR MORE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. THE WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION MOSTLY
ENDING...BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG SHOULD CLOUDS BREAK UP MUCH.
WILL MAINTAIN THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH
OREGON CASCADES FOR THIS AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. IT WILL
TAKE A WHILE FOR SNOW LEVELS TO RISE WITH THE WARM FRONT....AND WHILE
SNOWFALL WILL BE LESS ON THURSDAY THAN THIS EVENING...ENOUGH SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO FALL TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE IMPACTS ACROSS THE PASSES.
THE NEXT PACIFIC OCCLUDED FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
EVENING FOR MORE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. THIS FRONT COULD PRODUCE
MORE WIND ON THE COAST THAN THE ONE TODAY...AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF
HIGH WINDS ALONG THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE WELL
EAST OF THE CASCADES BY SATURDAY MORNING. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN
MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON ON SATURDAY
WITH ANY TRAILING SHOWERS DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. TOLLESON
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEATHER THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS TO LOOK LIKE SPRING...ESPECIALLY BY MIDWEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING UP INTO THE UPPER 50S...MAYBE EVEN 60S. WE
MAY SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE CASCADES...BEFORE A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
STRONG PERSISTENT RIDGE WILL BRING EAST WINDS THROUGH THE GORGE AND
FOG TO THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND LOWER COLUMBIA-I5
CORRIDOR EACH NIGHT...WHERE HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT-TO- CALM WINDS
WILL CREATE STAGNANT CONDITIONS STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES STARTING ON
SUNDAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON HOW WIDESPREAD
AND PERSISTENT THE FOG IS EACH NIGHT. IF WE SEE MORE WIDESPREAD FOG
DEVELOP THAT HANGS AROUND THROUGH MIDDAY TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL BE
COOLER IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY BELOW 1000-1500 FT. HOWEVER IF WE
ONLY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP THAT BURNS OFF BY LATE MORNING AS
CURRENTLY FORECAST...TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE GORGE WILL EASILY
MAKE IT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S...MAYBE EVEN LOW 60S. -MCCOY
&&
.AVIATION...FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE CASCADES THIS EVENING WITH
SHOWERS IN THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS. CIGS GENERALLY REMAIN VFR
WITH A FEW POCKETS OF LOCAL MVFR. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH
12Z...BUT LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE AS WELL AS LOWERING MVFR CIGS AT THE COAST BY 12Z-14Z THU
AND REACHING INLAND...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
AREA...BY 15-17Z. SMALL POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM FOR THE COASTAL
TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN
TAF. MOUNTAINS TO REMAIN OBSCURED THROUGH THU MORNING.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THIS EVENING WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS IN
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. SURFACE WIND REMAINS S AT AROUND 10 KT.
EXPECT INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR BETWEEN 15Z
AND 20Z...WITH TRENDING TOWARD VFR CIGS FOR THE LATER AFTERNOON
HOURS ON THU. CULLEN
&&
.MARINE...WINDS CONTINUE TO EASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE WATERS THIS
EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT REMAIN IN THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
WATERS FRI FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES...WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT
POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
PERIOD. AS A RESULT...HAVE HOISTED THE GALE WATCH FOR THIS PERIOD.
THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY EVENING
WITH WIND SPEEDS FALLING OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
DEVELOPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH OFFSHORE FLOW SUN THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. EXPECT TO SEE GUSTY WIND THROUGH COASTAL GAPS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
SEAS CONTINUING TO BUILD THIS AFTERNOON. A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL
HAS ARRIVED IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND WITH WIND SPEEDS LETTING UP
A BIT...A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 19 TO 21 SECONDS IS NOW BEING CARRIED
IN THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS. THUS...EXPECTED THE COMPLICATED SEA
STATE TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT THE WITH WEST PRIMARY
SWELL...AND A DIMINISHING SW WIND WAVE COMPONENT. THIS LARGE AND
LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE BRINGS SEAS TO 19 FT OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND ACHIEVING 20-FOOT SEAS
ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF WIND SPEEDS END UP STRONGER THAN
FORECAST. SEAS FINALLY DIP BELOW 10 FT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SURGE IN WAVE HEIGHTS MONDAY DESPITE
AN OFFSHORE WIND PATTERN AS A SWELL GENERATED OVER THE PACIFIC
ENTERS THE COASTAL WATERS. CULLEN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON
COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THURSDAY FOR NORTHERN
OREGON CASCADES.
WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THURSDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON
COAST.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THURSDAY FOR SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 8 PM PST THURSDAY.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
845 PM PST WED FEB 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Light to moderate snow accumulations will accompany the passage
of a storm system tonight. Another system will bring rain and
mountain snow Friday night into Saturday. Breezy to windy
conditions are expected to occur late Friday into Saturday. Strong
high pressure will bring several days of dry weather Sunday into
the middle part of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Update: Overall forecast through Thursday morning looks in good
shape with only a few minor changes to the current highlights. An
upper level trough over western Washington this evening will track
east across Eastern Washington and north Idaho tonight. Moist
isentropic lift is overtaking the region with widespread light
snow expected this evening with a few exceptions. Main exception
is south of I-90 where some of the lower spots such as Othello, La
Crosse, and Lewiston should see mainly rain. Also, strong
downslope flow off area mountains may result in only light precip
totals for the Lewiston-Clarkston Valley. Otherwise a widespread
light snow event is expected but will become enhanced early
Thursday morning as a band of brief moderate to heavy snow
develops as the upper trough axis swings inland and a short wave
tracking through combined with increased mid level instability
occurs. The HRRR has been placing this band between Spokane and
Pullman and with some support from the NAM and GFS will be
extending the winter weather advisories through 10 am Thursday for
the Spokane and Coeur D`Alene area. This area of enhanced snowfall
will track into the Central Panhandle Mountains as well Thursday
morning. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A cold front pushes into the Cascades tonight and slips
east of the region Thursday morning. Snow and some rain will
increase from west to east across the aviation forecast area
tonight, starting near EAT/MWH this afternoon and expanding toward
the eastern TAF sites toward 02-05Z. Some moderate snows are
possible and snow amounts up to 3 inches are possible by Thursday
morning, especially near GEG/SFF/COE/PUW. Elsewhere snow amounts
will be less or little to nothing where rain falls or mixes in,
largely MWH/LWS. The steadier snow threat shifts into the
Panhandle Thursday morning, but scattered snow showers will be a
threat through at least midday to early afternoon over the
eastern TAF. However additional accumulations, if any, should be
limited. CIGS/VIS will degrade to MVFR/IFR levels. Some limited
improvement is projected around PUW/GEG/SFF/COE in the afternoon.
But there will be better chance of reaching VFR conditions
elsewhere. Expect some breezy conditions with the cold front, with
potential wind gusts in the 15 to 25 mph range, especially around
PUW/GEG. /J. Cote`
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 29 37 28 41 33 40 / 100 50 10 10 80 20
Coeur d`Alene 28 35 30 40 33 39 / 100 70 20 20 80 60
Pullman 33 39 32 43 36 43 / 100 80 20 10 70 40
Lewiston 37 45 34 49 40 50 / 70 50 10 10 50 20
Colville 29 36 28 37 33 38 / 100 40 10 20 80 20
Sandpoint 28 34 30 37 33 37 / 100 70 20 30 80 70
Kellogg 28 33 30 37 32 36 / 100 100 60 30 80 70
Moses Lake 30 41 29 43 34 45 / 90 20 0 10 60 10
Wenatchee 27 38 27 38 32 41 / 90 10 0 20 70 10
Omak 25 35 26 35 30 37 / 100 10 0 30 80 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for Coeur
d`Alene Area.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for Idaho
Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST Thursday for Central
Panhandle Mountains-Northern Panhandle.
WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Thursday for Northeast
Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Upper Columbia Basin.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for Washington
Palouse-Spokane area.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM PST Thursday for East Slopes
Northern Cascades-Okanogan Valley-Waterville Plateau.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
940 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016
.DISCUSSION...
...COOLER/UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN TURNING EVEN COOLER
NEXT WEEK...
.CURRENT...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT BEING ANALYZED OVER NORTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO AND NORTH FLORIDA. LARGE SWATH OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED
STORMS STRETCHES FROM APALACHICOLA...NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC.
.THIS AFTERNOON...LOCAL WRF/ARW6 AND HRRR SHORT TERM MODELS FORECAST
RAIN FINALLY ENTERING THE LAKE COUNTY AREA AROUND 3"" THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE THE 06Z RUN OF THE GFS20 WAS A LITTLE QUICKER AT
1"". THE RAIN SHOULD REACH THE METRO ORLANDO AREA LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
THE ZONE UPDATE WILL LOOK AT ANY CHANGE TO WHEN THE RAIN SHIELD
FINALLY ENTERS THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA. THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST OK.
.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS/MVFR CIGS AT THE FLORIDA WEST COAST HAVE
WORKED THEIR WAY TO KLEE/LEESBURG. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD EAST
TO THE ORLANDO AREA AIRPORTS LATE MORNING AND THE ATLANTIC COAST
AIRPORTS MID AFTERNOON. RAIN STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA JUST AT GAINESVILLE/KGNV. ETA AT KLEE
AROUND 3/20Z AND THE ORLANDO AREA AIRPORTS AROUND 5/22Z.
.MARINE...BUOYS RECORDING SOUTH WIND 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND 3 TO 4 FOOT
SEAS. WINDS REMAIN 15 TO 20 KNOTS FOR THE AFTERNOON THEN INCREASE TO
AROUND KNOTS WELL OFFSHORE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT`S ARRIVAL EARLY
EVENING. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OFFSHORE STILL A GOOD CALL FOR
THE AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS AFD ISSUED 312 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016
CURRENT...CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AGAIN FOR ONE MORE MORNING. TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND L70S WITH DEWPOINT VALUES WELL INTO THE 60S
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT OVER NORTH FLORIDA.
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. WE MAY SEE SOME SPOTTY PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY AROUND
ANY SMOLDERING PRESCRIBED BURNS...BUT AREAS OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
MAY BE THE BIGGER THREAT EARLY IN THE PERIOD...SHOULD THEY DEVELOP.
TODAY-TONIGHT...DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WILL WEAKEN
AND GET SQUEEZED EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH THE APPROACH OF
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH
WILL PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE I-4 CORRIDOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVER THE REMAINDER OF OUR COVERAGE WARNING AREA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WITH SSE-
SSW SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS. WHILE WE MAY SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS DO NOT
FEEL A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS WARRANTED. WINDS WILL BECOME NWRLY
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING WITH BREEZY/GUSTY
CONDITIONS FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE.
INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE LIMITED ONCE AGAIN FOR THE LATEST WEATHER
SYSTEM...THOUGH WILL STILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN CLOSER TO PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES TOWARD/INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA. WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION
DURING THE DAY BUT THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF THE
AREA LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING. AS WITH PREVIOUS WEATHER
SYSTEMS THIS SEASON WE WILL HAVE IMPRESSIVE JET STREAM WIND FIELDS
WITH 80-100 KT WINDS ALOFT JUST TO THE NORTH AND THE FAVORABLE RIGHT-
REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET NEAR THE AREA PROMOTING DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL POOL TOWARD 2 INCHES AHEAD AND
ALONG THE FRONT.
OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COVERAGE WARNING AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY
FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF SHOWER. THE I-4
CORRIDOR WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT NEARS. GREATEST CHANCES SOUTH OF I-
4 SLOWLY INCREASE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN
THREATS FROM SHOWER/ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. A FEW CELLS COULD
BECOME LOCALLY STRONG BUT IT APPEARS ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA. SHOWER CHANCES WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH.
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY ARE 87 FOR DAB, MCO AND VRB WITH MLB COMING
IN AT 86 FOR A HIGH MAX. FEEL THAT WE WILL NOT REACH THESE VALUES
THOUGH MLB MAY COME THE CLOSEST. CLOUD THICKNESS AND ONSET OF ANY
PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO PLAY A ROLE IN HOW WARM WE GET TODAY. STILL
UNSEASONABLY WARM HIGHS IN THE M-U70S NORTH OF I-4 WITH U70S/L80S
ALL IN PLAY FURTHER SOUTHWARD. MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERS DOWN
THE PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE L-M40S NORTH
OF I-4...U40S/L50S ACROSS THE REST OF THE INTERIOR. AREAS FROM MLB
TO SUA ALONG THE COAST WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 54 TO 60 DEGREES FOR
MINS.
FRI-SAT...POST FRONTAL COOLING WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AS ONSHORE
WINDS DEVELOP BY FRI AFTERNOON...AT ANY RATE IT WILL BE A COOL AND
BLUSTERY DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY MAKING IT TO THE U50 TO L60S WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MARINE SOURCE STRATO CU MOVING WELL INLAND AS
WINDS VEER INCREASINGLY ONSHORE. AN EAST COAST TROUGH WL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT FRI AS A RESULT OF DRAINAGE FLOW DOWN PENINSULA
COMBINING WITH MORE DIRECT ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE MARINE AREA.
PRESENCE OF THIS CONVERGENT AREA WL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST AND TO SOME DEGREE INLAND WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS...ESP ALONG THE COAST. SATURDAY A RATHER
POTENT SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS THE SE STATES WL RAPIDLY
ACCENTUATE THE EC TROUGH WITH RAPID SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT MOSTLY
EAST OF THE STATE OVER THE MARINE AREA. THE GFS IS CURRENTLY A
LITTLE MORE SEWARD THAN THE EC AND THE CURRENT FORECAST BLENDS
THE TWO SOLNS WITH A MENTIONABLE RAIN CHC INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHC IS CURRENTLY DEPICTED SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE
AREA.
NEXT WEEK...AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE END TO THE WEEK CONDITIONS NEXT
WEEK BEGIN UNDER INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AND COOL
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN
THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. REINFORCEMENT OF CONTINENTAL AIR
AROUND WED WILL BRING 30S TO A LARGE PART OF THE AREA BOTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG PROSPECTS LOOK LOW THIS MORNING WITH SOME SPOTTY LOW
STRATUS POSSIBLE AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR TAFS. COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA LATE TODAY AND PRESS THROUGH THE
COVERAGE WARNING AREA DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. MORNING SSE/S
WINDS WILL VEER TO SSW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND WILL BECOME NEAR
BREEZY/GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PGRAD TIGHTENS. MAINLY
SHOWERY PCPN CHANCES DEVELOPING ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR LATER THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING CHANCES FURTHER SOUTHWARD
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSRA THOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. MVFR IN SHRA`S WITH SOME IFR CIGS NEAR
THE FRONT LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATE TONIGHT
FOR CIGS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS ECFL.
&&
.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AND FURTHER SOUTHWARD
DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. GUSTY SSE/S WINDS WILL PROMPT
CONTINUANCE OF CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS OVER THE OPEN ATLC
TODAY...REMAINING 15KTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS NEARER THE
COAST. WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME NWRLY BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS...OCNLY TO GALE FORCE. WILL INITIATE AN SCA
NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET FOR 00Z/7PM AND 03Z/10PM FOR MARINE LEGS
FURTHER SOUTH. WILL ALLOW FUTURE FORECAST SHIFTS TO MONITOR AND
UPGRADE TO A GALE WATCH/WARNING FOR LATER TONIGHT ACROSS A PORTION
OF THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD THE NEED ARISE. SEAS GENERALLY 3-4 FT
NEAR SHORE AND 4-5 FT OFFSHORE TODAY. TONIGHT THRU 12Z FRI
MORNING...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD (NORTH TO SOUTH) 7-10 FT
OFFSHORE NORTH OF ST. LUCIE AND 5-8 FT NEAR SHORE NORTH OF THE CAPE.
AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING WITH THIS THREAT INCREASING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND MAINLY FOR POINTS
FURTHER SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STORM THREAT WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FILLS IN SOUTHEASTWARD.
FAST OFFSHORE-MOVING CELLS WITH MAIN THREATS LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KTS
ALL IN PLAY FOR LATER TODAY/EVENING.
FRI-SUN...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS OVER ALL THE WATERS FRI AND FRI
NIGHT WITH STRONG POST FRONTAL WINDS. A TEMPORARY LULL IN GRADIENT
WINDS DURING SAT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT IN SEA
STATE...HOWEVER RAPID GENESIS OF A LOW OFF THE FL EAST COAST TO
BAHAMAS EARLY SUNDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE WINDS OVER THE
MARINE AREA DURING SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EWD FROM THE
GULF WL IMPROVE WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 78 43 58 48 / 100 90 10 30
MCO 82 50 59 46 / 80 80 10 20
MLB 83 54 62 53 / 40 70 10 20
VRB 84 56 61 56 / 30 60 10 20
LEE 76 44 59 44 / 100 90 0 10
SFB 80 47 58 46 / 90 80 10 20
ORL 80 48 59 51 / 80 80 10 20
FPR 84 56 62 55 / 20 60 10 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....VOLKMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
330 AM PST THU FEB 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. A
WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LIGHT
RAIN AT TIMES. THE NEXT STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR RAINY AND WINDY WEATHER.
SHOWERS WILL LINGER SATURDAY...AND A STRONG UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BRING
DRY MILD WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...RADAR INDICATES SHOWERS CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO WRN
WA IN POST-FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW. THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE AREA WITH MODERATELY STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW AT 850 MB HELPING TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES IN THE
MOUNTAINS. SNOW AMOUNTS SNOW FAR THIS MORNING RANGE FROM AROUND 6-8
INCHES IN THE PASSES AND NEAR A FOOT AT SOME HIGHER SKI RESORT
LOCATIONS. A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL EARLY THIS MORNING
BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF. THE SNOW ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT UNTIL NOON TODAY.
MODELS INDICATE A WARM FRONT OFFSHORE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NE OVER THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN BUT QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW IS
EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS FEATURE LIFTS N OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY PUTTING WRN WA IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
NEXT VIGOROUS COLD FRONT. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE CONSIDERABLY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. FREEZING LEVELS ON THE MODELS ARE SLOW
TO MODERATE THE AIR MASS OVER THE CASCADES BUT GIVEN THE STRONG FLOW
DEVELOPING AND WEDGE OF WARMER AIR AT 850 MB AROUND +4 C...SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD RISE TO AT LEAST 6000 FEET. THE ONLY AREA IN QUESTION
IS THE N CASCADES WHERE SNOW LEVELS COULD REMAIN LOWER AT SPOTS LIKE
MOUNT BAKER.
RAIN ARRIVES AT THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING AND SPREADS INLAND DURING
THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION MAY START OFF AS SNOW IN SOME MOUNTAIN
AREAS BUT SHOULD MIX AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO RAIN IN THE PASSES
RATHER QUICKLY. SNOW LEVELS WILL CRASH WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY EVENING
WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO PASS LEVELS AGAIN. SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE BUT THE HIGH SNOW LEVELS TO START SHOULD CUT BACK
POTENTIAL AMOUNTS CONSIDERABLY. THE WRF-GFS PICKS UP ON THIS IDEA
WITH ONLY HIGHER MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS GETTING ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE AT PASS LEVEL FRIDAY NIGHT.
AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED BUT PROBABLY NOT WARNING AMOUNTS. MOUNT
BAKER COULD BE THE ONE SPOT THAT PICKS UP LOCALLY MORE SNOW.
SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW GRADUALLY TAPER OFF SATURDAY IN POST
FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW. MODELS STILL HOLD ONTO SOME SPOTTY LIGHT QPF
INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL KEEP THE CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST...THOUGH MOST SPOTS WILL PROBABLY NOT MEASURE AFTER MIDDAY.
.LONG TERM...A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IS STILL ADVERTISED BY
MODELS TO BUILD OVER THE WRN U.S. SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MID
WEEK. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A WARM FRONT OFFSHORE BRUSHES
THE AREA WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY MORNING BUT THIS WOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND NOT LIKELY TO REACH INLAND
AREAS. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY MONDAY AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE. MODELS SHOW 500 MB HEIGHTS RISING TO
OVER 5800M MONDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND +14C. HIGHS
WERE NUDGED UPWARD A BIT WITH UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 FORECAST BUT I
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LOW 60S WERE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN FORECAST
OR WHAT MOS INDICATES. HEIGHTS COME DOWN SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SO HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 BUT IT WILL
STILL BE A PLEASANT STRETCH OF SUNNY DRY WEATHER. MERCER
&&
.AVIATION...COLD FRONT FROM LAST NIGHT IS CURRENTLY ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE CASCADES. WITH THAT...UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN FROM WEST-
SOUTHWEST TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL TURN
WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
MOIST AND MOSTLY STABLE.
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SHOWER ACTIVITY ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
SOUND...WITH BANDS OF PRECIP ENTERING THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND THE
CENTRAL OLYMPIC PENINSULA. THIS GAP SHOULD ALLOW MOST TAF SITES TO
REMAIN DRY FOR THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS...DEPENDING ON LOCATION.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE TRAVERSING RIDGE BRINGS PRECIP TO AN END BY
THIS EVENING.
CIGS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON GENERALLY LOW END VFR TO MVFR. MAY SEE
THEM LOWER DOWN INTO LOW END MVFR WITH AFTERNOON PRECIP...BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO REBOUND WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THIS EVENING. SMR
KSEA...GENERALLY DRY THROUGH ABOUT 12Z THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTERWARD...WITH CHANCES INCREASING IN THE
AFTERNOON THEN ENDING BETWEEN 00-03Z. CIGS FALLING TO MVFR FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...REBOUNDING WITH PRECIP END. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH SPEEDS TYPICALLY 7-12
KTS. SMR
&&
.MARINE...THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT LAST NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. CURRENT BATCH OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OVER
MOST WATERS WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...AS NO SITES AT THIS TIME
OBSERVING WINDS THAT MEET CRITERIA. EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE
COASTAL WATERS. THEY REMAIN CLOSE...ONLY A FEW KNOTS UNDER
CRITERIA...AND WITH WINDS OVER THESE WATERS EXPECTED TO RISE AGAIN
LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...NO REASON TO YO-YO THE
ADVISORY.
NEXT FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL BRING WINDS UP...ONCE AGAIN PRECEDED BY
STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENTS...THEN GRADUALLY RELAXING AND
SHIFTING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH MODELS REMAINING
CONSISTENT ON GALES...OPTED TO GET THE BALL ROLLING BY ISSUING A
GALE WATCH FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. EAST ENTRANCE AND NORTHERN INLAND
WATERS MAY REQUIRE INCLUSION...ALBEIT A LITTLE BIT LATER THAN THE
COASTAL WATERS...BUT WILL LEAVE THAT DECISION TO DAY SHIFT
FORECASTER.
ENERGETIC SWELL EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...PEAKING ON EARLY
THIS MORNING AROUND 16-18 FEET WITH A LONG PERIOD OF 19-20 SECONDS.
DESPITE BEING UNDER 20 FEET...THE LONG PERIOD ENERGY HAS PROMPTED A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR BOTH THE CENTRAL AND NORTH COAST. SWELL THIS
LARGE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE MORE BEACH EROSION PROBLEMS ALONG
THE WASHINGTON COAST ESPECIALLY IN WESTPORT AND OCEAN SHORES. ON
FRIDAY...ANOTHER SWELL TRAIN WILL ARRIVE...BUT THE PERIOD WILL BE
UNDER 15 SECONDS...AND THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL ARRIVE DURING A LOW
TIDE ON FRI PM...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE AS MUCH ISSUE WITH BEACH
EROSION ON FRI. SMR/HANER
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR THE CASCADES OF
PIERCE AND LEWIS COUNTIES-CASCADES OF SNOHOMISH AND KING
COUNTIES-CASCADES OF WHATCOM AND SKAGIT COUNTIES.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST TODAY FOR CENTRAL COAST-
NORTH COAST.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 6 PM PST TODAY FOR
GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST TODAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER
10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM-WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA.
GALE WATCH COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST TODAY FOR CENTRAL U.S.
WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-NORTHERN INLAND WATERS INCLUDING THE
SAN JUAN ISLANDS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PST TODAY FOR PUGET SOUND AND
HOOD CANAL.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1006 PM PST WED FEB 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Light to moderate snow accumulations will accompany the passage
of a storm system tonight. Another system will bring rain and
mountain snow Friday night into Saturday. Breezy to windy
conditions are expected to occur late Friday into Saturday. Strong
high pressure will bring several days of dry weather Sunday into
the middle part of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Update: Overall forecast through Thursday morning looks in good
shape with only a few minor changes to the current highlights. An
upper level trough over western Washington this evening will track
east across Eastern Washington and north Idaho tonight. Moist
isentropic lift is overtaking the region with widespread light
snow expected this evening with a few exceptions. Main exception
is south of I-90 where some of the lower spots such as Othello, La
Crosse, and Lewiston should see mainly rain. Also, strong
downslope flow off area mountains may result in only light precip
totals for the Lewiston-Clarkston Valley. Otherwise a widespread
light snow event is expected but will become enhanced early
Thursday morning as a band of brief moderate to heavy snow
develops as the upper trough axis swings inland and a short wave
tracking through combined with increased mid level instability
occurs. The HRRR has been placing this band between Spokane and
Pullman and with some support from the NAM and GFS will be
extending the winter weather advisories through 10 am Thursday for
the Spokane and Coeur D`Alene area. This area of enhanced snowfall
will track into the Central Panhandle Mountains as well Thursday
morning. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A low pressure system will spread mainly snow over the
region through Thursday morning. Snow will continue over Eastern
Washington and north Idaho tonight but will be decreasing or
ending at KEAT/KMWH between 6-8z. Another wave tracks through
12-18z bringing another round of snow showers for
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW. Abundant boundary layer moisture and snow
will result in IFR/MVFR conditions for most of the area into
Thursday morning. Some limited improvement is projected around
PUW/GEG/SFF/COE in the afternoon. But there will be better chance
of reaching VFR conditions elsewhere. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 29 37 28 41 33 40 / 100 50 10 10 80 20
Coeur d`Alene 28 35 30 40 33 39 / 100 70 20 20 80 60
Pullman 33 39 32 43 36 43 / 100 80 20 10 70 40
Lewiston 37 45 34 49 40 50 / 70 50 10 10 50 20
Colville 29 36 28 37 33 38 / 100 40 10 20 80 20
Sandpoint 28 34 30 37 33 37 / 100 70 20 30 80 70
Kellogg 28 33 30 37 32 36 / 100 100 60 30 80 70
Moses Lake 30 41 29 43 34 45 / 90 20 0 10 60 10
Wenatchee 27 38 27 38 32 41 / 90 10 0 20 70 10
Omak 25 35 26 35 30 37 / 100 10 0 30 80 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for Coeur
d`Alene Area.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for Idaho
Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST Thursday for Central
Panhandle Mountains-Northern Panhandle.
WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Thursday for Northeast
Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Upper Columbia Basin.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for Washington
Palouse-Spokane area.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM PST Thursday for East Slopes
Northern Cascades-Okanogan Valley-Waterville Plateau.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
214 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016
...SOME LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT...
MAIN WX FOCUS FOR THE NEXT 24 H WILL BE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH CO TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SRN UT AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME LIGHT
SN SHOWERS IN ERN UT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. SNOW AMTS OUT
WEST HAVE BEEN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS IN
LIQUID...BUT WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED A BIT AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND SOME LEE SIDE COLUMN STRETCHING OCCURS. PV
ANALYSIS AND MODEL FORECASTS SHOW BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP
OCCURRING IN THE 03Z TO 09Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
ERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. FARTHER EAST...SN PROBABILITIES LOOK
CONSIDERABLY LESS. THE LATEST HRRR IS CATCHING ON TO THIS POTENTIAL
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND IS SHOWING A PRETTY GOOD BAND OF
PRECIP DEVELOPING OVER WRN PUEBLO COUNTY AROUND 09Z. HAVE ALREADY
INCREASED POPS OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR FOR THIS EVE...BUT IF TRENDS
CONTINUE MAY HAVE TO INCREASE POPS SOME MORE FOR THIS AREA. SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE REGARDLESS...STILL LOOKING AT
AROUND 1-3 INCHES FOR THE ERN MTS AND GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH FOR
THE PLAINS. THE LATEST HRRR INDICATING MORE LIKE 2-3 INCHES...BUT
FOR NOW WILL STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL
KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT... SO DESPITE CONTINUED COLD
AIR ALOFT...SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES HIGHER
THAN THEY WERE FOR LAST NIGHT.
TOMORROW...WILL SEE CLEARING FROM NW TO SE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
ONWARD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY MID DAY. CONTINUED COLD AIR ALOFT
AND NRLY FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL HOLD DAYTIME HIGHS ON THE COLD
SIDE OF AVERAGE. WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW BELOW GUIDANCE AS MOS
VALUES LOOK A BIT TOO WARM FOR KPUB AND ESPECIALLY KCOS...WHERE
RESIDUAL SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD DOWN THE HIGHS. SHOULD SEE
MAINLY 30S TOMORROW ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS...AND 20S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE
WEST...AND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS IT
SHOULD BE A PLEASANT END TO THE WEEK DESPITE THE COOLER THAN
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016
FRI NIGHT...GENERALLY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WL BE OVR THE
FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY STILL BE BELOW
AVERAGE. ON SATURDAY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE STATE BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEATHER WL STILL
BE DRY. TEMPS ALOFT WL WARM ON SAT AND MOST LOCATIONS WL SEE WARMER
HIGH TEMPS. MUCH OF THE SERN PLAINS SHOULD SEE HIGHS THAT ARE NEAR
OR A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE...ALTHOUGH AREAS WITH LINGER SNOW COVER
MAY BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE. THE HIGH VALLEYS WL ALSO LIKELY BE A
LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE.
SAT NIGHT AN UPR TROF WL BE MOVING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN
PLAINS STATES...SENDING A FRONT INTO SERN CO. AT THIS TIME...THE
FORECAST MODELS KEEP THE WEATHER DRY ACRS THE FORECAST AREA SAT
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OVR THE CENTRAL
MTNS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...TEMPS OVR THE SERN PLAINS ON SUN
SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER.
AS THE UPR TROF OVR THE PLAINS STATES MOVES EASTWARD...AN UPR RIDGE
WL BE BUILDING OVR THE GREAT BASIN AND MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES BY
MONDAY...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THAT AREA THRU THE
COMING WEEK. THIS WL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER ACRS THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG WITH WARMER...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016
STILL ON TARGET TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KCOS
AND KPUB LATER TONIGHT. TIMING LOOKS A BIT LATER AND SNOW MAY BE A
BIT MORE WIDESPREAD...SO MAY MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TAFS TO
REFLECT THIS. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF IFR ESPECIALLY AT KCOS DUE TO
SHSN. ACCUMS GENERALLY LOOK LIGHT...LESS THAN AN INCH BUT POSSIBLY
UP TO TWO INCHES IF A PERSISTENT BAND OF PRECIP SETS UP AS SOME
COMPUTER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. PRECIP SHOULD CLEAR BY 12Z AND SHOULD
SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AREA-WIDE BY 15Z OR SO. WILL STAY VFR WITH
LIGHT WINDS FOR THE BALANCE OF FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
245 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016
.DISCUSSION...
...COOLER/UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN TURNING EVEN COOLER
NEXT WEEK...
CURRENT...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST OVER NORTH
FLORIDA...JUST ENTERING MARION COUNTY/OCALA AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES RECORDED PRIMARILY
OFF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF TAMPA. MAINLY NORTH OF A
JACKSONVILLE CEDAR KEY LINE FOR NOW. ALL ESTIMATES OF FRONT`S
FORWARD SPEED HAVE BEEN A SLOW EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 10 MPH.
THIS AFTERNOON...TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOL ESTIMATES ARRIVAL TIME OF THE
RAIN SHIELD AROUND AROUND 3-4 PM THE LEESBURG AREA AND AROUND 6 PM
(RUSH HOUR) FOR THE ORLANDO METRO AREA. REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
THE HRRR AND THE LOCAL WRF MODELS. RAIN SPREADS SLOWLY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TONIGHT...SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING. THE VARIOUS
SHORT TERM MODELS...HRRR/LOCAL WRF/GFS20...HAVE THE RAIN AND THE
500MB TROUGH EXITING THE SOUTHERN AREA BY 7 AM FRI MORNING. INITIAL
SHOT OF COOL AIR ADVECTION DROPS LOWS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 4/ORLANDO
DOWN TO THE LOW AND MID 40S. WHERE THE FRONT HAS YET TO MOVE
THROUGH...ORLANDO SOUTH...LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BUILDS OVER FLORIDA.
EXPECTING WIND AROUND 15 MPH AND GUSTY. HIGHS UPPER 50S ORLANDO
NORTH AND LOW 60S TO THE SOUTH.
FRI NIGHT...SFC HIGH WILL ELONGATE FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TWD THE
CAROLINAS WITH LOW LVL NNE WINDS VEERING TO THE NE/ENE OVER THE ATLC
WITH A TROUGH SETTING UP NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SUPPORT RETURN OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ONSHORE IN THE FORM OF
MARINE STRATOCU WITH ISOLATED LOW TOPPED SHOWERS MOVING IN OFF THE
ATLC AND SOME MAKING IT INLAND ACROSS THE INTERIOR. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LWR-MID 40S INTERIOR TO LWR-MID 50S S CSTL SECTIONS.
SAT-SAT NIGHT...NEXT ADVANCING MID LVL S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE
NRN GULF COAST AND ACROSS FL DURING THE NIGHT. THIS WILL INDUCE SFC
CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT BUT SHOULD SEE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVE
UP FROM S FL SAT AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. WILL CONTINUE A
BLEND OF GUID POPS WHICH FAVORS LOW COVERAGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
SAT WITH HIGHER COVERAGE ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST SAT EVENING
BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE BY THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE LWR 60S FAR NRN SECTIONS TO LWR 70S FOR MARTIN/ST LUCIE
COUNTIES. NW FLOW WILL INCREASE SAT NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE AND EXPECT QUICK END TO SHOWER CHANCES ONCE THE LOW PULLS
AWAY LATE SAT NIGHT. LOWS IN THE 40S EXPECTED...EXCEPT LWR 50S FOR
THE SRN TREASURE COAST.
SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WINDY
NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST IN THE MORNING AND BREEZY IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AROUND 60 NORTH TO THE MID
60S SRN AREAS.
MON-THU...12Z MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. EXPANSIVE MID-UPPER LVL TROUGH ACROSS THE GRT
LAKES MONDAY WILL SHIFT TWD THE NE QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY INTO MID
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A (MAINLY) DRY REINFORCING FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS INTO MID WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES FROM THE WRN GULF WED TWD FL ON THU. HIGHS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S...THOUGH COOLER ACROSS THE NORTH TUE ONLY
INTO THE UPPER 50S. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...THOUGH WE COULD
SEE MORE WIDESPREAD MID-UPPER 30S WED NIGHT AS SFC HIGH BUILDS TWD FL
LATE WITH EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED WITH A DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE.
&&
.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS/TEMPO MVFR CIGS AT THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
HAVE WORKED THEIR WAY TO KSFB/SANFORD AND KTTS/SPACE CENTER AND
NORTH. RAIN AT OCALA/KOCF AND SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY TO KLEE. LOOKS
LIKE A WET AVIATION RUSH FROM 21Z TO 02Z AS THE RAIN WORKS ITS WAY
OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. PREVAILING MVFR CIGS AFTER 02Z.
AND THE ORLANDO AREA AIRPORTS AROUND 5/22Z.
&&
.MARINE...
CURRENT...SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS BUOY009 AND
BEYOND AND AROUND 15 KNOTS AT SEBASTIAN INLET AND TRIDENT PIER. SEAS
4 TO 5 FEET.
TONIGHT-SAT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS SHIFT TO
THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST 20 KNOTS OR MORE NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY DOWN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS 4
TO 6 FEET AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT
AS THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH COUNTERING THE GULF
STREAM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DOWN TO SEBASTIAN INLET TIL LATE EVENING
THEN DOWN TO JUPITER INLET AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SAT GOOD CALL.
FRI NIGHT-SUNDAY...WINDS WILL VEER TO ONSHORE AND WEAKEN INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT AND
BRINING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GUSTY NW/N WINDS AND A RETURN
TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY. GUID POINTS TO A SOLID 25 KNOTS
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE WINDS DECREASE INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.
MON-TUE...ANOTHER REINFORCING MAINLY DRY FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING WESTERLY WINDS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...KEEPING SEAS HAZARDOUS OFFSHORE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 42 57 46 63 / 80 10 20 40
MCO 47 60 45 67 / 70 10 20 40
MLB 49 64 50 69 / 60 10 20 30
VRB 53 64 53 71 / 60 10 20 30
LEE 40 61 42 63 / 80 10 10 30
SFB 44 58 45 65 / 80 10 20 30
ORL 45 61 46 66 / 80 10 20 30
FPR 55 65 52 72 / 50 10 20 30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....VOLKMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
501 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016
OVERVIEW...THERE ARE A FEW FORECAST CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. FOG IS NOT LIKELY...BUT CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT
ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...A VERY LIGHT SNOW EVENT IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING
PRIMARILY BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON AND FOCUSED ON NEBRASKA ZONES.
HOWEVER...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LOW IF WE EVEN GET
ANYTHING...GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH IN MOST PLACES.
FOG POTENTIAL...THERE HAS BEEN A LOW STRATUS DECK THIS AFTERNOON
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN IOWA. THE HRRR HAS BEEN FORECASTING
FOG FORMATION THIS EVENING OVER THE THICK SNOW COVER AND NEAR THE
EDGE OF THIS STRATUS DECK ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. THE SREF
FOG POTENTIAL IS ALSO OVER 50 PERCENT IN SOME OF THIS AREA. IN
ADDITION...THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUPPORTING FOG.
HOWEVER...THE HRRR HAS BEEN BACKING OFF OF THE FOG ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST AND HAS BEEN PULLING THE FOG FURTHER BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA AND CLOSER TO THE STRATUS
DECK...WHICH MAKES SENSE. THE SREF MAY BE OVERDOING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GIVEN HOW SNOW COVER IS HANDLED IN THE MODELS. IN
ADDITION...MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT LIMITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ALSO LIMITING FOG POTENTIAL.
THEREFORE...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE FOG IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS POINT IN TIME. IF WE DO SEE FOG...IT WILL LIKELY
BE NORTHEAST OF THE TRI-CITIES.
SNOW POTENTIAL...A WEAK FAST MOVING OPEN SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
MOST FORECAST MODELS GENERATE A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF MOISTURE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE THAT WOULD AMOUNT TO TRACE
AMOUNTS OF SNOW OR LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
PRETTY CLEARLY SHOW THAT THE TEMPERATURE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
ACROSS OUR CWA THAT THE ONLY PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW.
HOWEVER...OVERALL LIFT IS WEAK AS NOTED BY FRONTOGENESIS AND
ISENTROPIC SURFACES. THE ONLY THING REALLY GOING FOR THIS WEAK
LITTLE SYSTEM IS A FAIRLY DEEP SATURATED ZONE WITHIN THE DENDRITIC
LAYER THAT COULD LEAD TO A LITTLE LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW. GIVEN THE
LACK OF LIFT WILL JUST CALL FOR LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW
AND MOST AREAS MAY SEE A TRACE OR LESS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
WEAK AND THUS NOT MUCH WIND IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016
ALOFT: NW FLOW WAS DEVELOPING AND WILL DOMINATE THESE PERIODS.
EXCITATION OF THE LONGWAVES UPSTREAM WILL RESULT IN TEMPORARY
AMPLIFICATION OVER N AMERICA...WITH A +2.5 STANDARD DEVIATION RIDGE
OVER THE W AND A -2.5 SD TROF OVER THE ERN USA. THE WAVELENGTH WILL
BROADEN AND THE MAGNITUDE WILL DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT MID-NEXT WEEK...
WITH SIGNIFICANT DEAMPLIFICATION PROBABLE LATE NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE: A POTENT CLIPPER WILL BE RACING SE ACROSS THE CAN PRAIRIES
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED POLAR COLD FRONT WILL SURGE S AND
CROSS THE FCST AREA SAT NIGHT. IT THEN LOOKS LIKE THE ARCTIC FRONT
SLIDES THRU MON. HIGH PRES ARRIVES TUE AND THEN IT WRN EDGE OF THE
COLDER AIR BEGINS TO EDGE E INTO WED...WITH A WARM FRONT SHARPENING
AND APPROACHING.
NW FLOW IS A DRY PATTERN. SO ANY PRECIP THREATS WILL BE
LIGHT/MINOR.THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC COLD WILL SURGE INTO THE ERN
USA...MISSING US JUST TO THE E. BUT THE WRN FRINGE OF THESE AIR
MASSES WILL KEEP TEMPS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW NORMAL. THE FCST
AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A CLIPPER SAT. THAT COULD BE A
DAY OF TEMPORARY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
A FEW DAILY DETAILS...
FRI NIGHT: DECREASING CLOUDS.
SAT: TEMPS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE COMPLICATION OF SNOW
COVER. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S...EVEN
WITH THE SNOW COVER. IT`S LOOKING VERY WARM IN THE LOW-LVLS...BUT
NOT SURE HOW DEEPLY THE BL MIXES INTO THIS TO BRING IT DOWN.
SUN: COLD SECTOR. WINDY IN CAA...BUT ACTUAL AIR TEMPS NOT THAT
COLD.
COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES N OF I-80 SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. JET
FORCING IS STRONG ALOFT...BUT MOISTURE IS LACKING.
MON: TEMPS DROP BACK TO NORMAL...POSSIBLY BELOW. WE MAY NOT BE HIGH
ENOUGH WITH THE WARP-AROUND CLOUD COVER ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE
THERMAL TROF. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND
E...BUT IT`S NOT IN THE FCST YET.
TUE-WED: QUIET AND DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 501 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016
THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN IS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG
EARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE HELD OFF ON BRINGING IN
VISIBILITY OBSTRUCTIONS TO THE FORECAST RIGHT NOW...THINK THE
GUIDANCE IS A BIT OVER DONE. WILL WATCH IT AND AMEND IF
NECESSARY. OTHER THAN THAT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP...WHICH MAKES
THE FOG FORECAST TRICKY...AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BY MORNING. VFR IS FORECAST...BUT IF FOG DEVELOPS...MVFR IS
POSSIBLE IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...BILLINGS WRIGHT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
355 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016
OVERVIEW...THERE ARE A FEW FORECAST CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. FOG IS NOT LIKELY...BUT CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT
ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...A VERY LIGHT SNOW EVENT IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING
PRIMARILY BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON AND FOCUSED ON NEBRASKA ZONES.
HOWEVER...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LOW IF WE EVEN GET
ANYTHING...GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH IN MOST PLACES.
FOG POTENTIAL...THERE HAS BEEN A LOW STRATUS DECK THIS AFTERNOON
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN IOWA. THE HRRR HAS BEEN FORECASTING
FOG FORMATION THIS EVENING OVER THE THICK SNOW COVER AND NEAR THE
EDGE OF THIS STRATUS DECK ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. THE SREF
FOG POTENTIAL IS ALSO OVER 50 PERCENT IN SOME OF THIS AREA. IN
ADDITION...THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUPPORTING FOG.
HOWEVER...THE HRRR HAS BEEN BACKING OFF OF THE FOG ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST AND HAS BEEN PULLING THE FOG FURTHER BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA AND CLOSER TO THE STRATUS
DECK...WHICH MAKES SENSE. THE SREF MAY BE OVERDOING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GIVEN HOW SNOW COVER IS HANDLED IN THE MODELS. IN
ADDITION...MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT LIMITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ALSO LIMITING FOG POTENTIAL.
THEREFORE...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE FOG IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS POINT IN TIME. IF WE DO SEE FOG...IT WILL LIKELY
BE NORTHEAST OF THE TRI-CITIES.
SNOW POTENTIAL...A WEAK FAST MOVING OPEN SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
MOST FORECAST MODELS GENERATE A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF MOISTURE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE THAT WOULD AMOUNT TO TRACE
AMOUNTS OF SNOW OR LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
PRETTY CLEARLY SHOW THAT THE TEMPERATURE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
ACROSS OUR CWA THAT THE ONLY PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW.
HOWEVER...OVERALL LIFT IS WEAK AS NOTED BY FRONTOGENESIS AND
ISENTROPIC SURFACES. THE ONLY THING REALLY GOING FOR THIS WEAK
LITTLE SYSTEM IS A FAIRLY DEEP SATURATED ZONE WITHIN THE DENDRITIC
LAYER THAT COULD LEAD TO A LITTLE LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW. GIVEN THE
LACK OF LIFT WILL JUST CALL FOR LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW
AND MOST AREAS MAY SEE A TRACE OR LESS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
WEAK AND THUS NOT MUCH WIND IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016
ALOFT: NW FLOW WAS DEVELOPING AND WILL DOMINATE THESE PERIODS.
EXCITATION OF THE LONGWAVES UPSTREAM WILL RESULT IN TEMPORARY
AMPLIFICATION OVER N AMERICA...WITH A +2.5 STANDARD DEVIATION RIDGE
OVER THE W AND A -2.5 SD TROF OVER THE ERN USA. THE WAVELENGTH WILL
BROADEN AND THE MAGNITUDE WILL DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT MID-NEXT WEEK...
WITH SIGNIFICANT DEAMPLIFICATION PROBABLE LATE NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE: A POTENT CLIPPER WILL BE RACING SE ACROSS THE CAN PRAIRIES
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED POLAR COLD FRONT WILL SURGE S AND
CROSS THE FCST AREA SAT NIGHT. IT THEN LOOKS LIKE THE ARCTIC FRONT
SLIDES THRU MON. HIGH PRES ARRIVES TUE AND THEN IT WRN EDGE OF THE
COLDER AIR BEGINS TO EDGE E INTO WED...WITH A WARM FRONT SHARPENING
AND APPROACHING.
NW FLOW IS A DRY PATTERN. SO ANY PRECIP THREATS WILL BE
LIGHT/MINOR.THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC COLD WILL SURGE INTO THE ERN
USA...MISSING USJUST TO THE E. BUT THE WRN FRINGE OF THESE AIR
MASSES WILL KEEPTEMPS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW NORMAL. THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN THEWARM SECTOR OF A CLIPPER SAT. THAT COULD BE A DAY OF
TEMPORARY ABOVENORMAL TEMPS.
A FEW DAILY DETAILS...
FRI NIGHT: DECREASING CLOUDS.
SAT: TEMPS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE COMPLICATION OF SNOW
COVER. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S...EVEN
WITH THE SNOW COVER. IT`S LOOKING VERY WARM IN THE LOW-LVLS...BUT
NOT SURE HOW DEEPLY THE BL MIXES INTO THIS TO BRING IT DOWN.
SUN: COLD SECTOR. WINDY IN CAA...BUT ACTUALY AIR TEMPS NOT THAT
COLD.
COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES N OF I-80 SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. JET
FORCING IS STRONG ALOFT...BUT MOISTURE IS LACKING.
MON: TEMPS DROP BACK TO NORMAL...POSSIBLY BELOW. WE MAY NOT BE HIGH
ENOUGH WITH THE WARP-AROUND CLOUD COVER ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE
THERMAL TROF. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND
E...BUT IT`S NOT IN THE FCST YET.
TUE-WED: QUIET AND DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016
WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
VALID PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE IS AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF FOG THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE WIND DIES DOWN...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS POINT IN TIME. THERE
IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THE CHANCE IS ALSO TOO LOW FOR PUTTING IN
THE TAF AND WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACT FROM THIS POSSIBLE
LIGHT SNOW.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY