Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 02/04/16

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

1001 AM PST TUE FEB 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...TWO WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE DISTRICT BETWEEN NOW AND MIDWEEK. THE FIRST WILL SPREAD LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA TODAY...AND THE SECOND WILL
DO SIMILARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A
WARMING TREND.

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:12 AM PST TUESDAY...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, MAINLY FROM THE SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD. GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL IS
OCCURRING WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT SHIFTS TOWARD THE SOUTH. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE COASTAL RANGES OF MONTEREY COUNTY.
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH
LATE MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THIS BOUNDARY SWEEPING THROUGH THE
REGION, TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE
OF SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO
UPPER 50S. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT TODAY AND
BECOME WEAK OFFSHORE TONIGHT. UPDATED SHORT-TERM FORECAST PACKAGE
HAS BEEN SENT OUT.

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST TUESDAY...CHILLY START TO
THE DAY FOR A PORTION OF OUR SOUTHERN CWA. CURRENTLY BOTH SALINAS
AND WATSONVILLE ARE AT 37. FOR SF BAY METRO REGION MOST LOCATIONS
ARE IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE WITH DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO STILL
IN THE UPPER 40S.

SATELLITE AND ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SYSTEM JUST OFF THE COAST THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA TODAY. KMUX RADAR HAS BEEN BACK UP SINCE
THE EVENING WHICH WILL GREATLY HELP TODAY WITH THE TIMING OF RAIN.
LATEST HRRR AND NAM BOTH BRING ACROSS THE NORTH BAY THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND DOWN TO SF BAY AREA STARTING AROUND SUNRISE. THE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS DOWN TO THE MONTEREY BAY BY LATE IN THE
MORNING. OVERALL, LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING FROM YESTERDAY WITH
MODELS CONTINUING TO DEPICT PW VALUES OF 0.60" TO 0.70" BY LATE IN
THE MORNING. PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE .1" TO .2" FOR MANY URBAN
LOCATIONS WITH LOCALLY MORE THAN 1/3" FOR COASTAL RANGES. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 4,000 TODAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME VERY
SMALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

AFTER A SHORT BREAK IN THE RAIN A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING BRINGS IT TO THE NORTH BAY LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN TO SF BAY REGION DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WILL LIKELY BE SOME RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON COMMUTE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE CLOSE TO TODAY`S
VALUES ALTHOUGH PW VALUES WILL BE JUST A BIT HIGHER, SO COULD SEE
A FEW LOCALLY SPOTS FAIRING A BIT BETTER. .

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE COAST STARTING ON THURSDAY
AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE MAIN INFLUENCE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN AND HAVE BEEN INDICATING THIS THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THEREFORE, A VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE WITH WIDESPREAD MID
60S TO LOWER 70S LIKELY FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT TUESDAY. ECMWF
GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 70S IN MONTEREY BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE PERFECT WEATHER FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ON
SUNDAY.

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 AM PST TUESDAY...AS THE 18Z TAFS BECOME
VALID IT WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL PERIOD WEATHER WISE. AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH RAIN WILL BE ENDING FROM N-S AND THE SAME
FOR LIFTING CIGS. GENERALLY SPEAKING...MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING. CONF IS MARGINAL AS LINGERING
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY LEAD TO MORE CLOUD COVER THIS
AFTERNOON. NEXT ROUND OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE LATE WEDNESDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS THROUGH 18-19Z. THERE ARE ALREADY
SOME BLUE SKIES APPEARING ON THE CAMS AND VIS SATELLITE. CURRENT
TAFS WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH 20-21Z THEN A GRADUAL
WESTERLY SWITCH. MARGINAL MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS WITH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH 21Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

.MARINE...AS OF 09:12 AM PST TUESDAY...LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS THEN INCREASE AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. A LONG
PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...NONE.

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS/BELL
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM/CW

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

919 AM PST TUE FEB 2 2016

.AVIATION...AS OF 03:59 AM PST TUESDAY... WEAK FRONT ADVANCING
FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING GRADUALLY DETERIORATING CIGS TO THE
REGION. CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN 2500 FT AGL OR ABOVE... WITH VFR
CIGS PREVAILING THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. BRIEF INTERMITTENT
MVFR POSBL THRU 20Z. VCSH POSBL IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE 10KT OR LESS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...CIGS WILL PREDOMINATELY BE 3000 FT AGL OR ABOVE
WITH BRIEF MVFR POSBL UNTIL 20Z. LIGHT RAIN POSBL BTWN 16Z AND
19Z. WINDS 10KT OR LESS.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CIGS WILL PREDOMINATELY BE 3000 FT
AGL OR ABOVE WITH BRIEF MVFR POSBL UNTIL 20Z. LIGHT RAIN POSBL
BTWN 16 AND 19Z. WINDS 10KT OR LESS.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...NONE.

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS/BELL
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: MM

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

352 AM PST TUE FEB 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST TUESDAY...CHILLY START TO THE DAY
FOR A PORTION OF OUR SOUTHERN CWA. CURRENTLY BOTH SALINAS AND
WATSONVILLE ARE AT 37. FOR SF BAY METRO REGION MOST LOCATIONS ARE
IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE WITH DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO STILL IN
THE UPPER 40S.

VICINITY OF KSFO...CIGS WILL PREDOMINATELY BE 3000 FT AGL OR ABOVE
WITH BRIEF MVFR POSBL UNTIL 20Z. LIGHT RAIN POSBL BTWN 16Z AND
19Z. WINDS 10KT OR LESS.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CIGS WILL PREDOMINATELY BE 3000 FT
AGL OR ABOVE WITH BRIEF MVFR POSBL UNTIL 20Z. LIGHT RAIN POSBL
BTWN 16 AND 19Z. WINDS 10KT OR LESS.

.MARINE...AS OF 03:47 AM PST TUESDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
WINDS THEN INCREASE AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. A LONG PERIOD
WESTERLY SWELL WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...NONE.

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

305 AM PST TUE FEB 2 2016

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:39 PM PST MONDAY...INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A SURFACE COOL FRONT
WILL QUICKLY SLIDE SE OVER THE AREA VERY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. VFR WILL LOWER TO MVFR TUESDAY MORNING. VCSH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...W-SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. LOW CONFIDENCE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO S-SE 19Z-21Z. MVFR CIGS TUESDAY. PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS BECOMING NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS
TUESDAY. PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

.MARINE...AS OF 9:51 PM PST MONDAY...A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS VERY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND
BECOME GUSTY MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AHEAD OF ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM. A LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 3 AM

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: CANEPA

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

1032 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 817 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016

UPPER LOW EJECTING ONTO THE PLAINS THIS EVENING...WITH SURFACE AND
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR/JUST EAST OF PUEBLO. HAVE CONTEMPLATED
LOWERING WINTER STORM WARNINGS OVER INTERIOR VALLEYS AND PLAINS
SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER...THOUGH WITH HRRR CONTINUING TO
INSIST WRAP-AROUND SNOW BUILDING SOUTH ALONG I25 TO AT LEAST
WALSENBURG OVERNIGHT...WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT WARNING
CONFIGURATION FOR NOW. SNOW BANDS PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR. NORTH WINDS HAVE
BEGUN TO INCREASE MANY AREAS...AND EXPECT BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW
TO BECOME A PROBLEM ALONG AND EAST OF I25 OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016

...MORE SNOW ON THE WAY...PARTICULARLY FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA...

UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CO WITH
SFC LOW TAKING SHAPE DOWN AROUND KTAD. DRY SLOT AROUND THE SOUTHERN
SLIDE OF THE SYSTEM HAS WRAPPED NORTHWARD INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR...AND DEFORMATION BAND SNOW HAS STARTED
TO PUSH TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO NE CO. STILL SEEING
A FAIRLY DECENT FETCH OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND WEB CAMS HAVE SHOWN
SOME BOUTS OF HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES...BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN A
LITTLE TOO WARM FOR MUCH ACCUMULATION JUST YET. MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING AND DEEPENING THE UPPER LOW AS IT
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CO INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE
BY 06Z. AS THIS OCCURS...FORECAST AREA WILL COME UNDER THE COLDER
WRAP AROUND PORTION OF THE STORM WITH SNOW PIVOTING DOWN THE WEST
SIDE...BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TONIGHT. SO ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS APPEAR TO BE DONE WITH THIS
STORM...THERE IS STILL A SECOND WAVE TO GO...AND LATEST HRRR SHOWS
SNOW SPREADING BACK SOUTHWARD INTO THE KPUB AREA AND INTO LAS ANIMAS
AND BACA COUNTIES LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH THIS SECOND WAVE AND THAT IS WHEN THE
BLOWING SNOW WILL BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN. WINDS IN LATEST MODEL
SUITES APPEAR TO STAY JUST BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR A BLIZZARD
WARNING...BUT IT COULD COME CLOSE IN KIOWA COUNTY WHERE SOME THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS PROGGED TO OCCUR. WINDS LOOK A LITTLE TOO LIGHT IN
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY AT THIS POINT. BUT THIS WILL BEAR CLOSE
WATCHING THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS

WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE WRAP AROUND WILL BE THE MOST CHALLENGING PART
OF THIS FORECAST. LATEST HRRR DOES PULL H7 WINDS AROUND FROM THE NE
THIS EVENING...SUGGESTING ANOTHER ROUND OF UPSLOPE FOR THE WET
MOUNTAINS/WET MTN VALLEY/POSSIBLY NORTHERN SANGRES....BUT IT DOESN`T
APPEAR TO SPREAD FAR ENOUGH WEST TO AFFECT MORE THAN JUST THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. GIVEN THE VALLEY CENTER AND
WESTERN PORTIONS MAY MISS OUT ON THE SECOND WAVE OF THE STORM...HAVE
OPTED TO DOWNGRADE THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. WILL LEAVE ALL OTHER HIGHLIGHTS UNCHANGED. ANOTHER AREA
THAT MAY GET SLIGHTED FROM THIS EVENT WILL BE THE SOUTHERN SANGRES
AND THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR FROM WALSENBURG TO KTAD...BUT ITS
STILL TOO SOON TO SAY AT THIS POINT. THIS AREA MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 06Z BEFORE THEY GET THEIR NEXT CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATIONS. STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE SHOULD BEGIN TO SHADOW
SOUTHERN EL PASO AND PUEBLO COUNTIES AFTER 3 AM...WITH A DOWNWARD
TREND IN THE SNOWFALL FOR THESE AREAS TOWARDS EARLY MORNING.

WILL ALSO MAINTAIN THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS ALONG THE
CONTDVD...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE GREATEST SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN BETTER PROXIMITY TO THE DEFORMATION BAND. THERE
ARE STILL SOME INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS THOUGH SO WILL HANG ONTO THE HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOW. SUSPECT
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS MAY BE ABLE TO BE PARED OUT OF THE WARNINGS
TOWARDS 12Z TUES.

SYSTEM PULLS EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND SHOULD SEE SNOW TAPER
OFF ACROSS EASTERN AREAS IN THE MORNING...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT AT THIS
POINT...WITH GENERALLY ANOTHER 1 TO 4 IN THE AFTERNOON. -KT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION AS SECONDARY ENERGY DIGS
ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON THE BACKSIDE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
WITH THAT SAID...SHOULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
PEAKS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING FLOW ALOFT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD TO REMAIN BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY SNOW COVERED AREAS OF THE PLAINS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATING SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDING
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY AS MORE PACIFIC ENERGY DIGS ACROSS
THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE THIS
ENERGY MOVES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING
A PROGRESSIVE WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AS
ANOTHER GROUP OF MODELS ARE DIGGING THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. AT ANY RATE...SHOULD SEE INCREASING CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
FOR AREAS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIGGING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF A
DEVELOPING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS COULD BRING A
FEW MORE SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY...WITH DEEP
MERIDIONAL FLOW PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016

THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SE
CORNER OF THE STATE AS OF 1030 PM...WHILE THE SFC LOW WAS SITUATED
OVER HIGHWAY 50 BETWEEN CROWLEY AND OTERO COUNTIES. THIS
POSITIONING HAS PUBLISHED HIGH AMOUNTS OF SNOW FOR EL PASO
COUNTY...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO ATTAIN HALF AS MUCH. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLIP TO
THE EAST...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS FROM THE WRAPAROUND ARE
AFFECTING THE PLAINS...CREATING AREAS OF GREATLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES.

LOOK FOR IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR THE I25 CORRIDOR
FROM PUEBLO TO MONUMENT HILL...INCLUDING THE TAF SITES OF KPUB
AND KCOS THROUGH 18Z-20Z...THEN IMPROVING TO MVFR TO VFR.

THE SLV AND KALS HAS BEEN VFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AND IT IS
TRULY QUESTIONABLE WHETHER ANY OF THE WRAPAROUND WILL AFFECT THE
VALLEY. THEREFORE...SAVE FOR VCSH ALONG THE VALLEY EDGES...VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS ARE FORECAST. MOORE

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058>068-
072>089-093>098.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ069>071-
099.

UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO

932 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 923 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016

THE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SE CO THIS EVENING WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE ROTATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE NW QUADRANT OF
THE STORM. RADAR IS PICKING UP SOME MINOR BANDS OF SHOWERS
GENERALLY MOVING FROM N TO S. BELIEVE SNOWFALL WILL BE VERY SLOW
TO LEAVE THE ARE...BUT IT WILL LEAVE AS THE PRECIPITATION AREA GRADUALLY
SLIDES EAST WITH THE LOW CENTERS SLOW EASTERLY MOVEMENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016

AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE
WINTER STORM WILL BRING PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOWFALL TO MUCH OF WEST-
CENTRAL CO FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS EVENING. HAVE UPDATED THE
GRIDS AND FORECASTS FOR CATEGORICAL SNOWFALL UNTIL ABOUT 9 PM WHEN
THE HRRR AND HIRES SHOW IT MOVING EAST.

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016

OUR COMPLICATED STORM SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO EVOLVE. IT IS IN
THE PROCESS TO TRANSITIONING TO ITS NEXT PHASE AS THIS FORECAST
GOES TO PRESS. THE 500MB LOW PASSED OVER THE 4-CORNERS AROUND
MIDDAY TODAY AND WILL SHORTLY MOVE EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

AS A RESULT THE FLOW HAS BEEN TRANSITIONING FROM A SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION TO WEST-NORTH NEAR THE SURFACE...AND EASTERLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE. BY LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT A DEEP NORTH FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. AS A RESULT...THE BETTER SNOWFALL WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN
SLOPES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SNOWFALL HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE VALLEYS OF WESTERN UT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND OVER THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL VALLEYS OF WESTERN CO.
WHILE SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN MANY OF THESE AREAS OFF AND ON
THROUGH THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT...LITTLE TO NO
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED. SO HAVE DROPPED THE
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES FOR THESE ZONES. ON THE FLIP SIDE...THE
NORTHWEST CO VALLEYS HAVE YET TO SEE THEIR BEST SNOWFALL. EXPECT
THAT THESE ZONES WILL SEE BETTER ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MORE
FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS THAT HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS IN CO ZONES 1 AND 2 WILL OCCUR NORTH OF THE
TAVAPUTS PLATEAU...SOUTH OF RANGELY AND IN THE PICEANCE
BASIN...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ZONE 5 IN THE YAMPA AND
OAK CREEK AREA. THEREFORE EXTENDED THESE ADVISORIES.

ALL PRESENT HIGHLIGHTS ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON TUE...AND THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE FOR NOW IN THE DRIER NORTH FLOW. HOWEVER ANOTHER
COLD IMPULSE WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY...WITH A
-32C/500MB COLD CORE OVER NORTHWEST CO IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS
INDICATE THERE WILL BE AN UPTICK IN SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.
FOR NOW THE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS DO NOT SEEM TO WARRANT
EXTENDING ANY HIGHLIGHTS. BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
LINGERING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE...AND A MUCH HIGHER SNOW RATIO
MAY BE A CONCERN. COLD ADVECTION IN THE NORTH FLOW WILL RESULT IN
COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE.

CONDITIONS QUICKLY WIND DOWN TUE EVENING AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
ERODE. BY LATE TUE NIGHT ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED
TO SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS FROM NEAR ASPEN AND NORTHWARD.
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT DUE LESS CLOUDS
AND THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016

IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS APPEARS A DOMINANT RIDGE WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED ALONG THE LEFT COAST OF NOAM. THERE WILL STILL
BE PACIFIC WAVES PLOWING INTO THIS FEATURE BUT NOT BE ALLOWED TO
FORM A LARGER SYSTEM IN THE WEST. SO WE ARE LOOKING AT SEVERAL
PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE
PLAINS BUT FOR NOW NOTHING LOOKS OVERLY SIGNIFICANT. BELOW TO MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN PLACE UNDER THIS REGIME AS
WELL. THE FIRST WAVE...MORE APPARENT IN THE 1.5 PVU FIELD...WILL
ROTATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND JUST BRUSH OUR EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WANE AS WELL AS
INSTABILITY SO REALLY ONLY EXPECTED SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS TO THE HIGH PASSES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL SEE TRANSITORY RIDGING
FOLLOWED BY THE FIRST PASSING TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THIS STORM HAS BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING THE PAST FEW
RUNS AND BOTH THE EURO AND GFS ARE CLOSING A LOW OFF NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE CARRYING IN SOME
PACIFIC MOISTURE BUT ATTM IT APPEARS THE UPSTREAM MOUNTAIN RANGES
WILL GET THE MOST BENEFIT BEFORE IT GETS HERE. RIDGING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IS THEN FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROUGH...THIS ONE
FARTHER NORTH...GOING INTO SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH APPEARS TO BRING
MORE OF A COLD SHOT THEN PRECIPITATION. BEYOND THIS A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH WILL MEAN GENERALLY DRY
AND COLD WEATHER PERSISTS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 923 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016

MOUNTAINS AND HIGH PASSES WILL REMAIN OBSCURED THROUGH MUCH OF
TUE MORNING THEN CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE. WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL OVER MUCH OF WESTERN CO WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND
TUE MORNING. KRIL...KEGE...KASE...KTEX...KMTJ WILL ALL HAVE MVFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH INTERMITTENT IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
POSSIBLE DUE TO PASSING SNOW SHOWERS. FOG DEVELOPING IN VALLEYS
AFTER ABOUT 09Z MAY AFFECT FLIGHT OPERATIONS AS WELL. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE THROUGHOUT TUE AND TUE EVENING.

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TUESDAY FOR COZ001-002-
004-005.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TUESDAY FOR COZ003-007>014-
017>020-023.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ023-025.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ028.

UPDATE...CC
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...CC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

453 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT...AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION
TONIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM WELL ABOVE FREEZING WITH
PERIODS OF RAINFALL...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...INITIALLY AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY...AND THEN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AT
NIGHT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND STRONG GUSTS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ENDING...AS A COLDER AIR MASS BUILDS
IN FOR THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 PM EST TUESDAY...

A 1028 HPA SFC ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON FROM SRN QUEBEC. THE SKIES HAVE CLEARED DUE
TO THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC HIGH. THE SYNOPTIC SET-
UP WILL BE THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES INITIALLY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF INTO THE M20S
TO M30S EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
WARM FRONT TO A POTENT STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.

THE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND SOME
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE WEST OR NORTHWEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY. THE NAM OR HRRR GUIDANCE IS THE SLOWEST BRINGING THE
INITIAL SURGE OF PCPN INTO THE REGION...WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER. TEMPS SHOULD BE ON THE RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
THE STRENGTHENING S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET. THE 925 HPA WINDS INCREASE
TO 30-40 KTS BTWN 09Z-12Z. WE ARE CONCERNED ABOUT SOME FUNNELING
OF THE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED GUSTS IN THE NARROW NORTH TO SOUTH
VALLEYS IN SRN HERKIMER COUNTY...AND HAVE BEGUN A WIND ADVISORY AT
5 AM THERE. S/SE WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 45-50
MPH ARE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL WIND ADVISORIES COMMENCE FURTHER EAST
FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THAT WILL
BE DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.

IN TERMS OF MIXED PCPN OR RAIN...AGAIN...THE ONSET MAY BE MORE
AFTER 7 AM FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. USING THE GFS
THERMAL PROFILES WITH A TOP-DOWN APPROACH...MOSTLY SNOW/SLEET
CHANGING TO RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE LATEST BUFFER SOUNDINGS...AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM SUPPORT A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW/SLEET
TO RAIN. WE DID LEAVE A CHANCE OF -FZRA BRIEFLY FOR HAMILTON...NRN
HERKIMER...AND NRN WARREN...BUT BASED ON THE GUIDANCE AND
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFO/S NO WSWS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT
THIS TIME. LOW TEMPS AGAIN WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND
30F NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION REGION...AND LOWER TO M30S FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WED TO 5 PM WED FOR SOUTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY...

...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WED TO 5 PM WED FOR SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON...EASTERN RENSSELAER...EASTERN COLUMBIA COUNTIES IN ERN
NY...BERKSHIRE CTY MA...AND BENNINGTON...AND WRN WINDHAM COUNTIES
IN SOUTHERN VT...

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE UNTIL THE LATE MORNING FOR THE
SRN DACKS...NRN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND SRN
VT...BUT THE LATEST THERMAL PROFILES INDICATES MAINLY SNOW/SLEET
CHANGING TO RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET. THE BIGGER ISSUES WILL BE
WINDS...AND A 12-HR WINDOW OF SOME MDT-HVY RAINFALL FOR MOST OF
THE FCST AREA. ANY SNOW OR SLEET ACCUMS WOULD A FEW TENTHS TO
POSSIBLY AN INCH.

STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS ON THE 290K SFC AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT TO A STRONG CYCLONE MOVING FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO SE ONTARIO AND SRN QUEBEC. THE 925 WINDS CONTINUE TO
BE FROM THE SE TO S AT 30-45 KTS WITH THE H850 WINDS CRANKING UP
TO 55-70 KTS FROM THE S TO SW. PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE IS
TRANSPORTED INTO THE REGION FOR PERIODS OF RAIN...OCCASIONALLY
HEAVY AT TIMES. THE LATEST GEFS HAVE PWATS SURGING TO 3 TO 5 STD
DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. THE H850/H925 SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES ARE 3 TO
4 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL /+V-COMPONENT OF THE WIND/. H850 TEMPS
RISE TO +2 TO +3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. BASICALLY...A SOGGY DAY IS
ON TAP FOR THE FCST AREA WITH A HALF AN INCH TO PERHAPS AN INCH+
OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...BUT DUE TO THE RECENT DRY
SPELL...THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HYDRO DISCUSSION BELOW. SOME WIND GUSTS FROM
THE S/SE IN THE 45-50 MPH RANGE ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE RAIN
OVER THE N-CNTRL TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND WEST OF THE SRN
GREENS IN VT...AS WELL AS SRN HERKIMER COUNTY. IF THE RAINSHIELD
QUICKLY FILLS IN...THEN THE GUSTS MAY BE LESS. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW
A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION...WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT GUSTS IN THE NON-
ADVISORY AREA. THE SHOWALTER STABILITY INDICES STAY POSITIVE FOR
MOST OF THE DAY...EXCEPT CLOSE TO SRN DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD CTY
CTY ON THE NAM IN THE EVENING. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY BE
POSSIBLE...BUT WE AGREE WITH THE LATEST SPC DAY 2 TO LEAVE MENTION
OF THUNDER OUT FOR NOW. THE GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE RAIN MAY BEGIN TO TAPER ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE FCST AREA
TOWARDS 6 PM.

HIGHS TOMORROW WONT LIKELY REACH RECORD VALUES...BUT WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL BY 15 TO 20+ DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE M40S TO AROUND 50F
OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS...AND U40S TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS.

WED NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION...AS THE COLD
FRONT TO THE SYSTEM WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING. AGAIN...THE NAM
INDICATES A POCKET OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY SCRAPING THE SE PORTION
OF THE CWA. SCT SHOWERS WILL LINGER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY
WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING BACK TO 0C TO -7C FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION...SRN VT...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS NORTH AND WEST...AND 0C
TO TO +4C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE U30S TO
L30S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST...AND U20S TO M30S TO
THE NORTH AND WEST.

THU-THU NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THU WITH
SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. DEEP
MIXING AND DOWNSLOPING WILL STILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL BY 10 DEGS OR SO FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY SOUTH AND
EAST WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U40S. NORTH AND WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S TO L40S. THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS FINALLY MOVES THROUGH WITH A SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM
THE TN AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNEXCITING PERIOD...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...AND
AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK TO BRING SOME
POSSIBLE MEASURABLE SNOWFALL TO ALL OUR ZONES ON TUESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN MOSTLY THE 20S AND 30S...ALTHOUGH
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES MILDER WITH A WARM FRONT
PASSING TO THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND
20S...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN EAST OF THE SITES TONIGHT. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z/WED...WITH JUST
THICKENING HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...PRECIPITATION WILL
QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES BETWEEN ROUGHLY 13Z-16Z/WED. AT
KGFL...THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR REMAINING WHERE THE
PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS SOME SNOW OR A SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX
FOR A BRIEF TIME. ELSEWHERE...PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED.

CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MVFR RANGE SHORTLY AFTER THE ONSET
OF THE PRECIPITATION...WITH AREAS OF IFR POSSIBLE TOWARD
18Z/WED...ESP AT KGFL.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT AT KALB AND KPSF
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE POSSIBLE
EARLY. AT KGFL...WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT
5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE REMAINING LIGHT/VARIABLE AT KPOU.

FOR TONIGHT...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH TOWARD 12Z/WED AT 5-10 KT...AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT WITH SOME
STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z/WED...ESP AT KALB WHERE SOME GUSTS
COULD REACH 20 KT OR HIGHER.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BECOME PROBLEMATIC AFTER 07Z/WED...AS SFC
WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH AT LESS THAN 12 KT...WHILE
WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 30-40 KT OR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
THURSDAY TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

.HYDROLOGY...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY. A
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL
REGION...OTHERWISE RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR
IS USHERED BACK IN. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE RAIN COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF
RAINFALL. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 2 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...AND THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST
FACING SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS
OF VERMONT.

THE LATEST OFFICIAL NERFC FORECASTS FOR THE MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE
ONLY KAST BRIDGE IN THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND WILLIAMSTOWN IN
THE NRN BERKS BARELY EXCEEDING THEIR RESPECTIVE ALERT STAGES BY A
FEW INCHES. OVERALL SOME 1 TO 2.5 FOOT RISES ARE EXPECTED ON THE
MAIN STEM RIVERS...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES COMBINED WITH RUNOFF OCCURS. ADDED
EFFECTS OF SNOWMELT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL BE MITIGATED
DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS THE REGION.

BEHIND THIS STORM SYSTEM...PRECIP WILL END AND TEMPS WILL TURN
COLDER...ALLOWING THE WATER TO RECEDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. OVERALL...NO WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ054-061-
084.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ038.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013-014.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...IRL/WASULA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

809 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE (REST OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...
01Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THIS EVENING. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE MID-
SECTION OF THE COUNTRY...BOUNDED ON BOTH SIDES BY AMPLIFIED
RIDGING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND PUSHING OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. WILL BE WAITING FOR A FINAL BATCH
OF ENERGY DURING THURSDAY TO ACCELERATE THE TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS
THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OVERNIGHT...AND CONTINUED SLOW PROGRESS
INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL FINALLY EXIT TO OUR EAST LATER THURSDAY/THURSDAY EVENING AS
THE SHORTWAVE MENTIONED ABOVE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

OVERNIGHT...LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
REGION AND SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF WILL VERY SLOWLY PROGRESS
TOWARD THE REGION. EXPECT TO SEE RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY GO UP IN
LEVY COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND THEN PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE NATURE COAST IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS VERY LATE DOWN TOWARD THE I-4 CORRIDOR...BUT MUCH OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY
FOR TAMPA BAY REGION EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD.

SEEMS PROGRESS OF THIS FRONT WILL BE QUITE SLOW THROUGH MUCH OF
THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING MORE QUICKLY OUT OF THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. COMBINATION OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND
BEST COMBINATION DEEP LAYER QG FORCING/LOW LEVEL FRONTAL FOCUS
SHOULD PROGRESS OUT OF THE NATURE COAST INTO THE I-4
CORRIDOR/SOUTHWARD DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL END MORE QUICKLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THURSDAY...AS BEST FORCING SHIFTS INTO
THE ATLANTIC...AND HAVE REMOVED ALL RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

WINDS SHIFT NORTH AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT...USHERING IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR FRIDAY. THE CAA
AND TIGHT GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS
EXPANDING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT. MARINERS SHOULD ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
AND SEAS THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PRESENTLY FOR ALL TERMINALS AND SHOULD SEE THESE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR REMAINDER OF EVENING. STILL WATCH
THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY SEA FOG TO IMPACT KTPA/KPIE/KSRQ...HOWEVER
CHANCES AT MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING. MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO PESSIMISTIC
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...AND HAVE LIMITED RESTRICTIONS
TO LOW END MVFR WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH BRIEF IFR IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SEA FOG. BAND OR TWO OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY/THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT GENERAL
MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH WINDS SHIFTING WEST AND
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY.

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SHIFTS FURTHER INTO THE
ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND ENTERS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE
EASTERN GULF DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY...AND BE EAST OF
THE FORECAST WATERS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. PATCHY SEA FOG REMAINS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
WIDESPREAD DENSE SEA FOG IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY TO SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST WITH THE
FRONT THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH AND NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT AND QUICKLY INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS THURSDAY
EVENING ACROSS BOTH THE NEAR SHORE AND OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES.
TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH
CAUTIONARY LEVEL WINDS...HOWEVER ADVISORIES MAY BECOME NECESSARY
FOR THESE ZONES AS WELL AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO FRIDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 67 75 47 63 / 10 90 80 0
FMY 67 81 56 68 / 10 30 60 0
GIF 65 80 48 63 / 10 70 80 0
SRQ 67 77 51 65 / 10 60 70 0
BKV 65 75 43 62 / 10 100 80 0
SPG 67 75 50 62 / 10 80 80 0

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
COASTAL LEE-COASTAL SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

202 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN
STALL NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. COOLER AND MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND MAY
BRING A FEW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE AREA.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDLANDS...FROM SUMTER THROUGH
DENTSVILLE TO NEWBERRY EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE THIS AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER OVER THE NORTH MIDLANDS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WITH WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE
EVENING...BUT FOCUS LIKELY REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STILL IN PLACE AND DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE WEST.
THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN IN THE UPSTATE THROUGH
THIS EVENING WHICH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN KEEPING POPS LOW THIS
AFTERNOON.

A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED WITH READINGS NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY IN THE LOWER 60S UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...RANGING THROUGH THE 70S.

MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE AREA WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
UPPER 50S COMMON NORTH...WITH LOWER 60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...THROUGH SPREADING EAST TOWARD DAYBREAK.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MOISTURE FLUX/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS LIKELY ONGOING DURING
THE MORNING...MAINLY ELEVATED. PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOUT 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...APPROACHING 1.80 INCHES BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE
IN THE DAY. MODELS SUGGEST WEAK CONVECTION EARLY WITH POSSIBLE
STRONGER CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. INSTABILITYMAY
BE A LIMITING FACTOR...WITH SURFACE BASED CAP POSSIBLE AND UPPER
FORCING LIMITED. BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRONG. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR FRONT BUT THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL AT
THIS TIME. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS. TEMPERATURES
WARM IN THE LOW 70S MOST AREAS WITH STRONG SOUTH LOW LEVEL
FLOW/RESULTING WARM ADVECTION. LIKELY BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS ABOVE 20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE
CWA...BUT SLOWING DOWN AS IT DOES. POPS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH
THE NIGHT ACROSS THE WEST...BUT WILL STILL HOLD ON TO CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS FROM WEST TO EAST DUE TO THE FRONT SLOWING DOWN.
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH THE FRONT STALLED OUT ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY...THERE SHOULD
STILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO PORTIONS OF THURSDAY NIGHT.
UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE FRIDAY EXPECT DRYING AND COOLER CONDITIONS...NEAR
OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY...AND WILL FORECAST LOW POPS LATE
IN THE PERIOD DUE TO POSSIBLE COASTAL STORM...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW
DUE TO LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS.

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF CAE/CUB WITH IFR CIGS
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. A STRONG 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. LLWS POSSIBLE 03/03Z
THROUGH 03/16Z. IFR CIGS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TAF SITES AFTER
00Z...AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL ALSO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED
SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO RESTRICTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES. IFR CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FORECAST
AFTER 12Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

1023 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WILL BECOME
DIFFUSE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THEN STALL NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
A DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDLANDS...FROM SUMTER THROUGH
COLUMBIA TO SALUDA EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE THIS AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER OVER THE NORTH MIDLANDS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WITH WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT FOCUS LIKELY REMAINING WEST OF THE
AREA THROUGH WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STILL IN PLACE AND
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE WEST. THE HRRR KEEPS MOST OF THE RAIN IN
THE UPSTATE THROUGH THIS EVENING WHICH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN
KEEPING POPS LOW THROUGH THE DAY.

A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED WITH READINGS NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY IN THE LOWER 60S. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...IN THE 70S. WITH SUCH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
THROUGH THE AREA AND POSSIBILITY OF WEDGE EROSION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES IS LOW FOR THE NORTH
MIDLANDS.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE AREA WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
UPPER 50S COMMON NORTH...WITH LOWER 60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND WILL BE JUST OFF TO THE WEST OF THE REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME QUITE MOIST THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH PW VALUES RISING TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES. A LOW-LEVEL
JET OF OVER 40 KNOTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
MODELS STILL INDICATING LIMITED INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET THE
SHEAR WILL BE HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A HIGH
SHEAR/LOW CAPE EVENT...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE ISOLATED STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS AND INCLUDE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT
WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A HIGHER CHANCE OF JUST SEEING BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL. DESPITE CLOUDS AND RAIN...STRONG WARM ADVECTION SUPPORTS
TEMPERATURES AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE FRONT STALLED OUT ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY...THERE SHOULD
STILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO PORTIONS OF THURSDAY NIGHT.
UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE FRIDAY EXPECT DRYING AND COOLER CONDITIONS...NEAR
OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY...AND WILL FORECAST LOW POPS LATE
IN THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FROM SSC TO CUB AND CAE. IFR CIGS AT
CAE/CUB EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR BY 16Z. VFR TO REMAIN AT
AGS/DNL/OGB THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE AREA. LOWERING CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS SHOW RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITIES
FOR MOST OF TONIGHT AND THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BUT BELIEVE THIS MAY
BE OVERDONE AS A 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE OVER THE AREA. HAVE
INCLUDED RAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITIES BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EVENING.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

647 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NEAR OR INTO THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING AND BECOME DIFFUSE. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND BE STALLED NEAR THE
COAST THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SHIFTING
EAST. A DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS JUST NORTH OF
THE NC/SC BORDER AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE. AREAS OF
DENSE FOG DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT IN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND CSRA BUT EXPECT MIXING SHOULD IMPROVE
VISIBILITIES BY LATE MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR AT 11Z SHOWS ISOLATED
WEAK RETURNS ALONG THE CSRA BUT EXPECT DRY MID-LEVEL AIR IS
PREVENTING PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND THIS MORNING. A
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT FOCUS LIKELY REMAINING WEST OF THE
AREA THROUGH WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STILL IN PLACE AND
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE WEST. THE HRRR KEEPS MOST OF THE RAIN IN
THE UPSTATE THROUGH THIS EVENING WHICH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN
KEEPING POPS LOW THROUGH THE DAY. WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING IS
EXPECTED TO SET UP NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TODAY WITH STRONG SURFACE
BASED INVERSION AND HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN
THE LOWER 60S. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...IN THE 70S. WITH SUCH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
THROUGH THE AREA AND POSSIBILITY OF WEDGE EROSION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES IS LOW.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
AREA WILL BE MAINLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. UPPER 50S COMMON NORTH...WITH LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND WILL BE JUST OFF TO THE WEST OF THE REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME QUITE MOIST THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH PW VALUES RISING TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES. A LOW-LEVEL
JET OF OVER 40 KNOTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
MODELS STILL INDICATING LIMITED INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET THE
SHEAR WILL BE HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A HIGH
SHEAR/LOW CAPE EVENT...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE ISOLATED STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS AND INCLUDE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT
WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A HIGHER CHANCE OF JUST SEEING BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL. DESPITE CLOUDS AND RAIN...STRONG WARM ADVECTION
SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES AROUND 70.

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIP SOUTH THIS MORNING BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAF
SITES. MAIN CONCERN REMAINS FOG AND STRATUS THROUGH MID MORNING.
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE
FLUCTUATED QUITE A BIT THROUGH THE MORNING SO HAVE HANDLED USING A
TEMPO GROUP. EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO RETURN TO VFR BY 14Z BUT LOW
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AS EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE AREA. LOWERING CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS SHOW RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITIES
FOR MOST OF TONIGHT AND THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BUT BELIEVE THIS MAY
BE OVERDONE AS A 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE OVER THE AREA.
HAVE INCLUDED RAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WHICH SHOULD LEAD
TO RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITIES BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EVENING.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

233 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

Surface map at 20Z/2 pm showed strong 993 mb low pressure along the
eastern KS/NE border with an occluding front extending through
northern MO into southern IL. Another boundary/warm front was just
south of Peoria and just north of BMI with some fog along and north
of this boundary. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms were
over central IL at mid afternoon mainly east of a Galesburg to St
Louis line and tracking NNE. A narrow band of heavier rains with
some thunder was along I-55 from Springfield to Bloomington.
Meanwhile a dry slot with clearing skies was over central and
southern MO and moving northeast toward SW IL.

Temps ranged from 37F at Galesburg and Lacon where east winds
persisted to 57F along highway 50 at Flora, Lawrenceville and Mount
Carmel airports where se winds were veering SSE. Pressure gradient
has weakened a bit during the day across central IL so ESE winds not
quite as strong ranging from 10-20 mph and gusts of 20-30 mph at mid
afternoon.

The HRRR model has been doing fairly well with convection so far
today and leaned on this model going into this evening. It has the
showers and isolated thunderstorms ending over western CWA late this
afternoon and in eastern IL during early/mid evening with most areas
dry by 9 or 10 pm. SPC still have slight risk of severe storms this
afternoon southeast of Terre Haute to Flora line where 15% risk of
damaging wind gusts and 5% risk of tornadoes and large hail. Better
threat of severe storms is over more unstable airmass in far
southeast IL into KY and sw IN from I-64 south.

Low pressure to track northeast to near Dubuque by 09Z/3 am and into
southeast WI by sunrise Wed. A strong short wave/trof to push into
the IL river valley between 09-12Z Wed (3-6 am Wed) and have slight
chances of light rain or light snow later tonight. Lows late tonight
to range from mid 30s over the IL river valley (33F at Galesburg) to
the lower 40s near the Wabash river (42F at Lawrenceville). SE winds
to turn SW by overnight and range from 8-16 mph overall tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

Tomorrow, the low will be pushing through the Great Lakes region
with a trailing sfc trough that will rotate through northern IL.
This sfc trough will also coincide with the 500mb trough that will
mover through the area. The combination of these two features will
bring a slight chance of light snow or rain to northwestern parts of
the CWA Wed morning. By afternoon all pcpn will have moved off to
the northeast, out of the CWA. Brief high pressure will move through
the area after this weather system moves through, along with the
pattern changing to a long wave trough pattern. This trough pattern
will bring another sfc trough through the area Thursday night, but
there will be a severe lack of moisture, so no pcpn is expected.
Then dry weather will be expected through the rest of the week and
into the the weekend. Temps will hover around normal through the
rest of the week and then will warm to above normal levels for the
weekend.

At the end of the weekend and the beginning of next week a northwest
flow pattern will setup over the area and looks like it may hang
around for an extended period. This northwest flow will allow a
series of clippers to move southeast through the Great Lakes area,
Sunday night through Tuesday. For now, will just keep the slight
chance of pcpn that the blended forecast has. Once the clippers
begin to move through, colder air will be allowed to pour into the
area and bring temps back to below normal.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

Strong low pressure of 993 mb along the eastern KS/NE border will
lift ne into central IA by midnight/06z tonight and into southeast
WI by sunrise Wed, and to northern lower MI by 18Z/noon Wed. A
band of showers and possible thunderstorms over the IL river
valley will spread ne across central/eastern IL next few hours and
then diminish late this afternoon/early evening from west to east
as dry slot works in. Have ceilings below 1k ft and vsbys 1-3
miles with this convection this afternoon over central IL. Low
clouds to scatter out with dry slow from west to east during
00Z-03Z time frame this evening. MVFR ceilings to return from the
west with wrap around between 09-13Z along. Brunt of light snow
should stay nw of central IL overnight into Wed morning but
carried VCSH at BMI and PIA which have better chance of light snow
showers. SE winds 15-25 kts and gusts 25-35 kts to veer sw and
diminish to 10-15 kts late today and have gusts of 20-25 kts late
tonight or Wed morning.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

1146 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016

HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO DELAY ONSET OF PRECIPITATION A BIT
TONIGHT AS HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SLOWER START TO
THE PRECIP WITH IT TAKING A BIT LONGER TO REACH SATURATION.
ADDITIONALLY HAVE A PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW VISIBILITIES AND DENSE
FOG ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS
AREA IS EXPANDING WESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. HAVE ISSUED AN SPS RIGHT NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR A POTENTIAL DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF THE AREA CONTINUES TO
EXPAND. LATEST HRRR MODEL INDICATES IT COULD PERSIST INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AND EXPAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. HAVE
INSERTED A GREATER MENTION OF FOG INTO THE GRIDS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR FOR A POTENTIAL HEADLINE AS WELL.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 409 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016

FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS SQUARELY ON TIMING AND IMPACTS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE IMPENDING WINTER STORM. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THE LARGE NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH EMERGING IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. IN RESPONSE...SFC CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES TO
INTENSIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH MAX SFC PRESSURE FALLS OF 6-
MB/3HR NOTED OVER KS/OK. ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE...MRMS RADAR MOSAIC AND OBSERVATIONS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE ALL THE MEASURABLE PCPN REMAINING OVER NE/KS AS
OF THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING THROUGH 10PM...SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT A MAJORITY OF THE EVENING SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS MODEL
TIME SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS /E.G. 850MB/. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW E/W BAND OF PRECIPITATION
LIFTING NWD ACROSS AREA ALONG THE LEADING SURGE OF ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. HOWEVER...ANY PRECIP /LIKELY A RAIN/SNOW MIX/ WITHIN THIS
BAND SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIGHT...WITH ONLY MINOR SNOW ACCUMS.

TONIGHT AFTER 10 PM...IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. COMBINATION OF VERY
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...AND LOWER STATIC
STABILITY SHOULD YIELD ARE LARGE SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
TOWARDS 12Z TUE AS WELL DUE TO A PLUME OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO 100-200 J/KG OF MUCAPE. PORTIONS OF FAR
SOUTHERN IOWA WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS A PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG ADIABATIC
ASCENT...AND WET BULB EFFECTS IN THE PBL SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY
QUICK CHANGEOVER TO SNOW EXCEPT ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 409 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016

PLENTY TO DISCUSS WITH ALL EYES STILL FOCUSED ON IMPENDING WINTER
STORM. LONG WAVE TROUGH IN QUESTION IS STILL ONLY MOVING THROUGH THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA BUT MID LEVEL FORCING EFFECTS ARE ALREADY
APPROACHING THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH MAINLY VIRGA FOR NOW. THIS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD INTO IA AT PERIOD ONSET AND MATURE COMBINING WITH
IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE NOW FORMING FROM KS INTO MO. THETA-E
ADVECTION...FRONTOGENETIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING ARE ALL VERY
STRONG AND IMPRESSIVELY PHASED EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT SOME
CONCERN IS THAT MUCH OF THIS LIFT IS BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE /DGZ/...WHICH IS NOT THAT DEEP ANYWAYS...AND MAY LEAD TO
LOWER RATIOS. HOWEVER CONVECTIVE SNOW IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH
UPRIGHT CONVECTION OVERWHELMING ANYTHING THAT MAY BE SLANTWISE/CSI
AS MOST MODELS ARE DEPICTING TOKEN MUCAPES. CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS ALL REFLECT THIS AS WELL WITH SHOWERY 40-50 DBZ ECHOES IN
SNOW. THUS 1-2 INCH/HOUR RATES ARE QUITE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHERN
INTO CENTRAL IA AROUND THE MORNING COMMUTE. EXAMINATION OF NAM
CONVECTIVE PRECIP FIELDS SUPPORTS THIS AS WELL...EVEN BRINGING
SPOTTY AMOUNTS TOWARD THE MN BORDER. HAVE EVEN ADDED FLAT OUR
THUNDERSTORM WORDING SE.

WELL ADVERTISED DRY SLOT HAS BECOME EVEN MORE PROMINENT THIS MORNING
AND LOOKS TO DIMINISH PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. THERE COULD VERY WELL BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TOO AS THE DRY SLOT...RAIN/SNOW LINE
LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. ADEQUATE LIFT MAY STILL PHASE WITH
A DECENT MOISTURE DEPTH...ALTHOUGH NOT DEEP AND COOL ENOUGH TO ADD
ICE INTRODUCTION. HOWEVER FARTHER NORTH THE DGZ DEEPENS SOMEWHAT AND
BETTER PHASES WITH THE MAX OMEGA AND SHOULD RESULT IN VERY HEAVY
SNOW ACROSS THE NW THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EVENING AS
THE DEFORMATION ZONE LINGERS AND PIVOTS OVER THESE LOCATIONS.
ALTHOUGH DIFFICULT TO INJECT INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT THE
OPERATIONAL NAM AND COMPANION NMM CORES DEVELOP WHAT LOOKS TO BE
CONVECTIVE PRECIP JUST NW OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK EARLY TUE
EVENING...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A HEAVY BURST OF UNDETERMINED WINTRY
PRECIP BEING RIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE PRECIP TYPE TRANSITION
LINE. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCH WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY INTO TUE.

TRUE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MAY BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL THROUGH THE EVENT
WITH 1/4SM VISIBILITIES AND 35 MPH GUSTS NOT COUPLED FOR EXTENDED
PERIODS AS ONE WIND SURGE MOVES THROUGH TUE...AND THEN SWINGS BACK
THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT. MOST MODELS DO NOT SHOW TOO DEEP OF MIXING
SO GENERALLY KEPT MAX WIND GUSTS 35-40 MPH. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS DO
INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING THAT...AND MAY OCCUR
LOCALLY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE TO INJECT INTO THE FORECAST ON
A WIDESPREAD BASIS AS OF YET.

WHAT THIS ALL AMOUNTS TO FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST IS LITTLE
CHANGE FOR SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNING WITH AMOUNTS
LOWERED SOMEWHAT IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING STRIPE...INCLUDING THE
DES MOINES METRO AREA. BLIZZARD WARNING 8-12...WINTER STORM WARNING
4-9...AND A TIER OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GENERALLY 2-4.

SOME MINOR BLOWING SNOW MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY AND INACTIVE WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. DRY NW FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
THE NEXT ITERATION OF WRN CONUS LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO END THE
WEEKEND. A SHORT WAVE DROPS THROUGH THU BUT IS MOISTURE
STARVED...AND THERE COULD BE SOME TOKEN LIGHT SNOW WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION SURGE MON BUT CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME. THE BIGGEST SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED
WILL LIKELY BE COLDER TEMPERATURES...WHICH ARE MAINLY JUST BEYOND
THE VALID PERIOD.

.AVIATION...02/06Z
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016

SOME FOG TO LINGER AT KMCW AND KALO WITH VSBYS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WINDS PICK UP. PRECIPITATION TO
OVERSPREAD THE CWA TOWARD SUNRISE...WITH VSBYS QUICKLY DROPPING IN
SNOW AND BLSN AS WINDS PICK UP. PRECIP TO CHANGE TO RAIN AT
KOTM...WITH A LULL IN THE PRECIP AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN TOWARD THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CIGS AND VSBYS TO REMAIN LOW IN FOG AND LOW
STRATUS. OTHERWISE SNOW TO GET GOING AGAIN IN THE EVENING TUESDAY.

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
AUDUBON-BOONE-CASS-DALLAS-GUTHRIE-MADISON-POLK.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR CLARKE-JASPER-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR BLACK HAWK-BREMER-
BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HANCOCK-HARDIN-KOSSUTH-
PALO ALTO-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
CERRO GORDO-EMMET-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-
PALO ALTO-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-GRUNDY-HARDIN-MARSHALL-STORY.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR CALHOUN-CARROLL-
CRAWFORD-GREENE-POCAHONTAS-SAC-WEBSTER.

UPDATE...BEERENDS
SHORT TERM...FOWLE
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...BEERENDS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

350 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND TAKING A NEGATIVE TILT AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES. THE STRONG CIRCULATION IS
EVIDENT BASED ON VIS/IR SATELLITE DATA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. RADAR TRENDS SHOW A SMALL BAND OF
SNOWFALL CONTINUING TO BRING LIGHT SNOW FOR SOME PORTIONS OF EASTERN
COLORADO AND EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS...MAINLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...RADAR REFLECTIVITIES APPEAR TO BE TRENDING
DOWNWARD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

IN THE NEAR TERM UP TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE WINTER STORM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND NEW SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE TO LESSEN.
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON COULD REACH UP TO AN
INCH...BUT LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW COULD OCCUR ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER
UP TO 2 INCHES. RAP MODEL THETA LAPSE RATES/NEGATIVE EPV VALUES
INDICATE AN AREA OF MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH SOME FRONTOGENESIS PRESENT ALONG THE SAME
AXIS AS THE CURRENT RADAR TREND WITH THE SNOW BAND POSITIONED NEAR
THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. A SNOW BAND MOVING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80 ALONG HIGHWAY 283 COULD ALSO BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW UP TO AN
INCH FOR NORTON AND HILL CITY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE LOW
CENTER MOVES EAST ENOUGH TO END THE SNOW THREAT.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS IS THE
BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY THREAT. STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OF 16-18 MB HAS BROUGHT STRONG WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AT TIMES...AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES
NOT HAVE THIS GRADIENT LESSENING FOR THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT
MST (1 AM CST) TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES...DESPITE THERE BEING NO
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. UNLESS
ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY...TRAVEL IS NOT ADVISED.

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD STABILIZE AFTER MIDNIGHT MST (1 AM
CST) TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY END THE BLOWING SNOW AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY THREAT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION FROM NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN BETWEEN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND THE MIDDLE TEENS. COLD TEMPERATURES IN
COMBINATION WITH WIND GUSTS WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 10 ABOVE
TO 10 BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

STRONG UPPER LOW TRANSITIONS EAST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LARGE SCALE RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE
WESTERN US RESULTING IN A SHARP N-NW FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN MAY SUPPORT QUICK SHOTS OF
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. OVERALL CHANCES OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THESE PERIODS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH A
PREDOMINANTLY DRY FORECAST. THIS IS DUE TO EITHER DEEPER DRY AIR
MASS BETWEEN CLIPPERS OR LACK OF CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS.

TEMPERATURES ARE PARTICULARLY TRICKY AS THIS PATTERN WOULD NORMALLY
SUPPORT A TREND TOWARDS SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER WITH THE
ONGOING SNOW EVENT AND AT LEAST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA
RECEIVING 10" OR MORE OF SNOW HIGH TEMPERATURES IN PARTICULAR ARE
LIKELY GOING TO BE LOWER THAN MODELS INDICATE. I TRENDED ALL HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN AND UNDERCUT ALL GUIDANCE THROUGH THESE PERIODS.
SNOW WILL ALSO AID IN RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE NIGHT...AND
ASSUMING WINDS REMAIN LIGHT (TO PREVENT LOW LEVEL MIXING) MODELS MAY
HAVE A WARM BIAS ON LOWS.

REGARDING WIND CHILLS WED NIGHT/THU MORNING...THE AIR MASS AND
ORIENTATION OF THE WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT MIGHT ACTUALLY LEAD TO MORE
MIXING WHICH COULD OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF SNOW/CLEARING SKIES AND
RESULTING WIND CHILLS MAY NOT ACTUALLY REACH -15F (ADVISORY). IT IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR -10 TO -20F WIND CHILLS...BUT I THINK THIS
MAY BE A LOCALIZED THREAT. WITH ONGOING HAZARDS THERE ARE NO CURRENT
PLANS FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THIS PERIOD.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

FOR KGLD AND KMCK...MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE
THROUGH 5Z OR SO AS OUR WINTER STORM CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST
BRINGING A SLOW DECREASE IN THE WINDS AND SLOWLY IMPROVING
VISIBILITIES. FROM 6Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD EXPECT WINDS
TO CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10KTS WITH ONLY SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ001-013-027>029-041-042.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ002>004-
014>016.

CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COZ090>092.

NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ080-081.

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

240 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1011 AM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MESSY CONDITIONS FOR
BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. VLIFR REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES AND IFR/LIFR REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS WITHIN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 6
HOURS.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST...CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE AS SNOWFALL STOPS...BUT STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL CAUSE
PERIODIC BLOWING SNOW FOR BOTH TERMINALS.

EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
AFTER 6Z.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ001-013-027>029-041-042.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ002>004-
014>016.

CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COZ090>092.

NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ080-081.

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...MK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

138 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

FIRST CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD IS THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS
ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM DIGS TO NEAR THE REGION FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA
SHOWS THIS SYSTEM MOVING AND THEN CUTTING OFF WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE AREA. SO THE CURRENT AND LATEST INIT FORECAST OF DRY
CONDITIONS LOOKS GOOD.

TEMPORARY SHORTWAVE RIDGING OCCURS ON SATURDAY. AFTER THAT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD...THE FLOW AMPLIFIES AS A SHARP MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AND A
STRONG SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
THIS IS GOING TO LEAVE A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVES AND A RATHER STRONG UPPER JET NEAR THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

MODELS WANT TO PRODUCE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF QPF BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. CAN
SEE THIS HAPPENING WITH THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG
JET. THE INIT DOES NOT INTRODUCE ANY POPS AND AM OKAY WITH THIS AT
THIS TIME SINCE IT IS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THERE IS SOME
MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
COUNTRY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS PERIOD CAREFULLY.

THE BIGGEST PROBLEM WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES. REGION IS CURRENTLY
GETTING BLASTED BY A MAJOR WINTER STORM WHICH IS PRODUCING A LOT OF
SNOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BRING DOWN A LOT OF COLD AIR. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORS...DID LOWER TEMPERATURES SOME BUT ADDITIONAL LOWERING WILL
PROBABLY BE NEEDED.