Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 02/03/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
925 PM MST SUN JAN 31 2016
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VERY
STRONG GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES
MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO OCCUR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND A HARD
FREEZE APPEARS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY
CONDITIONS WITH A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND WILL THEN PREVAIL LATER
THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...8 PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT EXTENDED FROM EASTERN CLARK COUNTY IN NEVADA SOUTH ACROSS
MOHAVE...LAPAZ AND YUMA COUNTIES IN ARIZONA. THE 9 PM REGIONAL
RADARS SHOWED THAT SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED INTO MARICOPA AND WRN PIMA
COUNTIES AS OF 9 PM REGIONAL. LATEST HRRR RUNS DEVELOP SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY THRU 10 PM THEN EXPAND IN AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 11 PM AND 1 AM. LOW LEVEL
WIND SPEEDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PER YUMA VAD WIND PROFILE...WERE
AS HIGH AS 45 KNOTS EARLIER THIS EVENING. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH THEM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH THE
SHOWERS. MOUNTAIN SITES AND WIND PRONE AREAS NEAR MOUNTAIN GAPS WILL
SEE HIGH WIND WARNING TYPE WIND GUSTS WHILE THE REST OF THE EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA WILL HAVE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND GUSTS.
SNOW LEVELS...PER MOUNTAIN RAWS PLATFORMS...WERE IN THE 8000-9000
FOOT RANGE AS OF 8 PM AND EXPECT THEM TO CRASH DOWN IN THE 3000-4000
RANGE BY MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONG WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS COMBINED
WITH THE FALLING SNOW WILL CAUSE BRIEF PERIODS OF BLIZZARD LIKE
CONDITIONS. CURRENT WIND AND WINTER TYPE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
STILL ON TRACK. BLOWING DUST HAS BEEN A CONCERN THIS EVENING WEST OF
TUCSON WHERE WE CURRENTLY HAVE A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY OUT UNTIL 10
PM. AS WINDS PICK UP ACROSS COCHISE COUNTY...WILL HAVE TO BE
CONCERNED WITH DUST COMING OFF THE WILLCOX PLAYA BEFORE THE RAIN
MOVES IN.
AFTER A BEAUTIFUL WARM WEEKEND...TEMPERATURE SHOCK WILL SETTLE IN ON
MONDAY WITH HIGHS 15-25 COOLER THAN SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/00Z.
SCATTERED -SHRA WILL DEVELOP WEST-TO-NORTH OF KTUS THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED NUMEROUS VALLEY -SHRA AND MOUNTAIN SHSN LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. SCATTERED VALLEY -SHRA AND MOUNTAIN -SHSN WILL THEN
OCCUR MAINLY EAST OF KTUS MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS
AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRECIPITATION.
OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS ABOVE 20K FT MSL THIS EVENING WILL LOWER TO
AROUND 5-9K FT MSL LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE SWLY/WLY AT 15-30 KTS WITH GUSTS OF
30-45 KTS INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WIND SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE TO 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL OCCUR
INTO MONDAY MORNING...THEN PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM WEST-TO-
EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL AREA-WIDE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR MONDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND THURSDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM MST
MONDAY FOR AZZ510 ABOVE 5000 FEET.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM MST
MONDAY FOR AZZ507>509-511>514 ABOVE 4500 FEET.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM MST MONDAY FOR
AZZ507-511>514.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM MST MONDAY FOR
AZZ503-504-506>510-515.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
349 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016
...MORE SNOW ON THE WAY...PARTICULARLY FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA...
UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CO WITH
SFC LOW TAKING SHAPE DOWN AROUND KTAD. DRY SLOT AROUND THE SOUTHERN
SLIDE OF THE SYSTEM HAS WRAPPED NORTHWARD INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR...AND DEFORMATION BAND SNOW HAS STARTED
TO PUSH TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO NE CO. STILL SEEING
A FAIRLY DECENT FETCH OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND WEB CAMS HAVE SHOWN
SOME BOUTS OF HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES...BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN A
LITTLE TOO WARM FOR MUCH ACCUMULATION JUST YET. MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING AND DEEPENING THE UPPER LOW AS IT
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CO INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE
BY 06Z. AS THIS OCCURS...FORECAST AREA WILL COME UNDER THE COLDER
WRAP AROUND PORTION OF THE STORM WITH SNOW PIVOTING DOWN THE WEST
SIDE...BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TONIGHT. SO ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS APPEAR TO BE DONE WITH THIS
STORM...THERE IS STILL A SECOND WAVE TO GO...AND LATEST HRRR SHOWS
SNOW SPREADING BACK SOUTHWARD INTO THE KPUB AREA AND INTO LAS ANIMAS
AND BACA COUNTIES LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH THIS SECOND WAVE AND THAT IS WHEN THE
BLOWING SNOW WILL BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN. WINDS IN LATEST MODEL
SUITES APPEAR TO STAY JUST BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR A BLIZZARD
WARNING...BUT IT COULD COME CLOSE IN KIOWA COUNTY WHERE SOME THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS PROGGED TO OCCUR. WINDS LOOK A LITTLE TOO LIGHT IN
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY AT THIS POINT. BUT THIS WILL BEAR CLOSE
WATCHING THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE WRAP AROUND WILL BE THE MOST CHALLENGING PART
OF THIS FORECAST. LATEST HRRR DOES PULL H7 WINDS AROUND FROM THE NE
THIS EVENING...SUGGESTING ANOTHER ROUND OF UPSLOPE FOR THE WET
MOUNTAINS/WET MTN VALLEY/POSSIBLY NORTHERN SANGRES....BUT IT DOESN`T
APPEAR TO SPREAD FAR ENOUGH WEST TO AFFECT MORE THAN JUST THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. GIVEN THE VALLEY CENTER AND
WESTERN PORTIONS MAY MISS OUT ON THE SECOND WAVE OF THE STORM...HAVE
OPTED TO DOWNGRADE THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. WILL LEAVE ALL OTHER HIGHLIGHTS UNCHANGED. ANOTHER AREA
THAT MAY GET SLIGHTED FROM THIS EVENT WILL BE THE SOUTHERN SANGRES
AND THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR FROM WALSENBURG TO KTAD...BUT ITS
STILL TOO SOON TO SAY AT THIS POINT. THIS AREA MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 06Z BEFORE THEY GET THEIR NEXT CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATIONS. STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE SHOULD BEGIN TO SHADOW
SOUTHERN EL PASO AND PUEBLO COUNTIES AFTER 3 AM...WITH A DOWNWARD
TREND IN THE SNOWFALL FOR THESE AREAS TOWARDS EARLY MORNING.
WILL ALSO MAINTAIN THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS ALONG THE
CONTDVD...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE GREATEST SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN BETTER PROXIMITY TO THE DEFORMATION BAND. THERE
ARE STILL SOME INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS THOUGH SO WILL HANG ONTO THE HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOW. SUSPECT
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS MAY BE ABLE TO BE PARED OUT OF THE WARNINGS
TOWARDS 12Z TUES.
SYSTEM PULLS EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND SHOULD SEE SNOW TAPER
OFF ACROSS EASTERN AREAS IN THE MORNING...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT AT THIS
POINT...WITH GENERALLY ANOTHER 1 TO 4 IN THE AFTERNOON. -KT
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION AS SECONDARY ENERGY DIGS
ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON THE BACKSIDE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
WITH THAT SAID...SHOULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
PEAKS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING FLOW ALOFT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD TO REMAIN BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY SNOW COVERED AREAS OF THE PLAINS.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATING SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDING
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY AS MORE PACIFIC ENERGY DIGS ACROSS
THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE THIS
ENERGY MOVES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING
A PROGRESSIVE WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AS
ANOTHER GROUP OF MODELS ARE DIGGING THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. AT ANY RATE...SHOULD SEE INCREASING CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
FOR AREAS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
SATURDAY-MONDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIGGING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF A
DEVELOPING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS COULD BRING A
FEW MORE SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY...WITH DEEP
MERIDIONAL FLOW PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 349 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KCOS AND KPUB TERMINALS THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CIGS LIFTING AND SNOW TAPERING
BACK AFTER 09Z. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT KCOS AND
KPUB AROUND 02-03Z WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE. THESE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...EVEN AS SNOW
DIMINISHES AFTER 09Z AND COULD KEEP SOME RESTRICTIONS TO VIS IN
BLSN...ESPECIALLY AT KCOS. BY TUESDAY MORNING...EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS...THOUGH NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. KALS WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH -SHSN.
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR QUICKLY OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058>068-
072>089-093>098.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ069>071-
099.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1017 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WED AND UP INTO EASTERN CANADA WED NIGHT...SENDING A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ON
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF
THE COAST THU AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRES TRACKS TO THE EAST OF NEW
ENG THU NIGHT INTO FRI. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
THIS WEEKEND...THEN A COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TRIED TO LINE UP
TEMPS TOWARDS CURRENT TRENDS. MANY SITES HAVE RADIATED OUT WITH
MVY DOWN TO 26 AND OWD/TAN DOWN IN THE MID 20S. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE ALREADY MOVING INTO THE AREA LIMITING COOLING POTENTIAL AND
WITH A SOUTHERLY BREEZE BEGIN TO DEVELOP...TEMPS MAY STALL OR
BEGIN TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
RAIN TOMORROW MORNING. RIGHT NOW ONLY THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW PRECIP
MOVING IN AROUND THE 7AM HOUR. WILL WAIT UNTIL THE 00Z HI-RES
GUIDANCE TO GET A BETTER PICTURE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL SHARPLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
STABILIZING OR RISING SLOWLY OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN AND
SOUTHERLY BREEZE DEVELOPS. UPDATED T/TD GRIDS FOR CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS. MIN TEMPS MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
MAIN CONCERN TOWARD DAYBREAK IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS E SLOPES OF BERKSHIRES AND NORTHERN WORCESTER
COUNTY IF PRECIP MOVES IN BY THEN. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE KEEP
PRECIP TO THE WEST THROUGH 12Z WHICH WILL LIMIT THE THREAT BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS STORM...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION.
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN...WILL OVERSPREAD
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT
TIMING OF ONSET...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE
COLDER VALLEYS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES AND NORTHERN
WORCESTER COUNTY. SEE NEAR TERM SECTION FOR MORE ON THIS POTENTIAL.
ANY FREEZING RAIN SHOULD CHANGEOVER TO RAIN QUICKLY AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS BRING IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. EXPECTING 1 TO 1.5 INCHES
OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS AND A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET. MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE WET FOR MOST AREAS.
EXPECT PRECIP TO START TO COME TO AN END ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES
SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY MORNING.
THUNDER...HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER FOR AREAS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS
INDICATE SOME MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
WINDS...THERE IS A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET MOVING OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THIS STORM. WINDS 1-2KFT OFF THE SURFACE
WILL BE 50 TO 60 KTS. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DECENT
INVERSION IN PLACE THAT WILL LIMIT THESE STRONGER GUSTS FROM
REACHING THE SURFACE. FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECTING WINDS TO GUST
UP TO ABOUT 35 MPH WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
HOWEVER...IF SHOWERS OR ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO TAP
INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...WE MAY SEE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN AND
AROUND THOSE STORMS.
TEMPERATURES...QUITE MILD AS THE SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING WARMER AIR
INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE
REGION...DESPITE THE RAIN AND CLOUDS. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL
ACTUALLY BE DURING THE EVENING HOURS JUST PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE SE NEW ENG THU
* ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN POSSIBLE THU NIGHT SE NEW ENG CHANGING TO
SNOW IF PRECIP MAKES IT FAR ENOUGH WEST INTO NEW ENG
* DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND
* A COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THURSDAY...
LONGWAVE TROF BACK ACROSS CENTRAL US WITH SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NEW
ENG. COLD FRONT WILL SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS AND LIKELY STALL OFF
THE SE NEW ENG COAST WHICH WILL CONTINUE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS AS DEEP MOISTURE AXIS
REMAINS NEAR THE COAST. OTHERWISE...MODELS SHOW EXCELLENT MID LEVEL
DRYING MOVING INTO W NEW ENG WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PTSUNNY
SKIES FURTHER WEST IN THE INTERIOR. TEMPS STARTING OUT RATHER
MILD...ESPECIALLY SE NEW ENG WHERE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
50S...BUT THERE IS A FAIRLY SHARP LOW LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS SNE
SO EXPECT 40S FURTHER BACK IN THE INTERIOR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
SHARP MID LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH FAIRLY ROBUST
SHORTWAVE LEADING TO A WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE OFFSHORE FRONT THU
NIGHT. THE QUESTION BECOMES TO WHAT EXTENT WILL THIS BACK DEEP
MOISTURE PLUME INTO NEW ENG. ECMWF AND GGEM BRING PRECIP BACK WEST
OF THE I95 CORRIDOR WITH ECMWF A BIT SLOWER AND LINGERING PRECIP
INTO FRI...AND BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO SE NEW ENG AS THE
COLUMN COOLS. GFS FURTHER EAST AND CONFINE PRECIP TO CAPE/ISLANDS.
WE USED A BLEND OF GEFS AND ECMWF EPS WHICH REPRESENTS SOMEWHAT OF A
COMPROMISE. WE WILL INCREASE POPS THU NIGHT ACROSS SE NEW ENG
BRINGING CHC TO SE MA AND RI WITH LIKELY FOR CAPE/ISLANDS. THE
COLUMN IS COOLING FROM THE WEST DURING THU NIGHT SO ANY SHOWERS
WOULD CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF SNOW IF THE PRECIP MAKES IT FAR ENOUGH
WEST. THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR SOME MINOR ACCUM FAR SE MA AND CAPE
COD BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WILL DEPEND ON PRECIP MAKING IT BACK
ACROSS THE REGION. SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY
IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. TREND WILL BE FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS
FRI...ALTHOUGH TIMING IS NOT CERTAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
INTO FRI MORNING IF TIMING IS SLOWER.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
LOOKS MAINLY DRY DURING THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRES IN CONTROL TO THE
SOUTH OF NEW ENG SAT...THEN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE BRINGS A COLD
FRONT INTO NEW ENG SUNDAY...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
COMPLEX PATTERN DEVELOPING AS AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM TROF MOVES
ACROSS THE GT LAKES WHILE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
LIFTS NE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LARGE OCEAN
STORM TRACKING WELL TO THE S OF NEW ENG. MOST OF THE GEFS AND ECMWF
EPS MEMBERS ARE ALSO WELL OFFSHORE BUT THIS IS DAY 6 AND HOW THIS
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROF IS UNCERTAIN SO
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND NORTHERN STREAM TROF PER ECMWF
SOLUTION WHICH SPINS UP ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT COASTAL LOW S OF NEW ENG
NEXT TUE. OBVIOUSLY A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS TIME RANGE BUT
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM
WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR TO
IFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH MVFR VSBYS. MOSTLY RAIN IS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER AT THE ONSET COULD SEE -FZRA BETWEEN 9-13Z IN
NW MA. OTHERWISE...VERY ISOLD TSRA PSBL LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT
ESP ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF RI/MA. SE WIND GUSTS 25-35 KTS
PSBL WED. LLWS IS POSSIBLE DUE TO INVERSION.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIP
COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO IN EITHER DIRECTION OF FORECAST.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIP
COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO IN EITHER DIRECTION OF FORECAST.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE
THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR IN THE INTERIOR...BUT AREAS
OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE SE NEW ENG
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR INTERIOR. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXTENT OF ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN AND ASSOCD MVFR/IFR BACKING IN
ACROSS SE NEW ENG THU NIGHT WHICH WOULD CHANGE TO SNOW IF PRECIP
MAKES IT FAR ENOUGH WEST...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS FRI.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE WATERS
WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE DAY WITH GALE FORCE WINDS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN GALE
FORCE WINDS IS ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS WHERE GALE WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS...CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE GALE WATCH FOR THE TIME BEING.
EITHER THE GALES ARE MARGINAL IN THESE AREAS...OR THEY ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO LAST FOR A FEW HOURS. SEAS INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 FEET ON
THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE EASTERN WATERS AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE...
THURSDAY...LIGHT W/NW WINDS...BUT SEAS 5-8 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS
IN LINGERING S SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS AND REDUCED VSBYS POSSIBLE
WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD.
THU NIGHT AND FRI...INCREASING NW WINDS TO 20 KT WITH LOW PROB FOR A
FEW G25 KT. SCA SEAS PERSIST OVER OUTER WATERS. VSBYS POSSIBLY
REDUCED IN A PERIOD OF RAIN OVER WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD
THU NIGHT WHICH COULD CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS...IMPROVING FRI.
SATURDAY...INCREASING SW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT DEVELOPING
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SUNDAY...WINDS TURNING NW WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY BELOW SCA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR FEB 3RD - 4TH...
BOS...59/1991 - 64/1991
BDL...61/1991 - 64/1991
PVD...60/1991 - 66/1991
ORH...57/1909 - 61/1991
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ANZ231>237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR ANZ230.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ250-251-254.
GALE WATCH FROM 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
CLIMATE...STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
932 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR CHICAGO TUESDAY EVENING MOVES NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL QUEBEC WEDNESDAY NIGHT LIFTING A WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT SUCH THAT SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN
SECTIONS. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST SLOWLY BUILDS IN FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THERE IS
THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE COASTAL LOWS MOVING OFF THE EAST
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO COOL KFOK DOWN
TO 27 F AS OF 01Z - 28 F AT KHTO. WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST AND WARM ADVECTION SETTLING...EXPECT TEMPS TO HOLD
STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY. EASTERN LONG ISLAND SHOULD JUMP UP TO 40
BY SUNRISE.
NO PCPN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HERE.
BASED ON ADDITIONAL NWP DATA - 15Z SREF ALONG WITH LATEST RAP AND
HRRR TRENDS ALONG WITH 18Z NCEP DETERMINISTIC RUNS - HAVE DELAYED
ONSET OF RAIN SIGNIFICANTLY. LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE EARLY AFTERNOON,
IF NOT LATER, IN THE NY METRO, LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT. COULD
HAVE SOME SPRINKLES IN THE MORNING...BUT NOT MEASURABLE.
HAVE GRADUALLY SHIFTED POPS EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
OTHER CHANGE IS TO END PCPN EARLIER FROM WEST TO EAST. AGAIN
BASED ON LATEST NWP DATA...THOUGH HAVE SOME CONCERN HERE - SEE
LONG TERM SECTION.
MILD TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE 50S. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FALL INTO THE 40S. MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHANGES HERE INCLUDE MAKING THURSDAY DRY (THOUGHT THIS MAY BE TOO
QUICK BASED ON GFS AND SREF) AND TO INTRODUCE SOME LOW POPS FOR
NOW IN EASTERN SECTIONS AS SHORTWAVE INDUCES WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ON OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY GFS AND SREF AND NOW 21Z SREF TRENDING WETTER AND IN
THIS CASE WHITE FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION. HAVE NOT
SEEN THE 21Z PLUMES YET, WILL NEED TO WATCH THE TRENDS HERE. TEMPS
SEEM COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW. SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL AMOUNTS.
OTHERWISE...FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER
WITH TEMPS MAINLY AT OR JUST ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS. A SOUTHERN
BRANCH LOW MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. AT THE
SAME TIME...THERE ARE MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE TROFS TRANSLATING EAST
IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET. THE BIG QUESTION IS DO
ANY OF THIS FEATURES MERGE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM. OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS...SOLUTIONS HAVE VARIED WITH THE AMOUNT OF PHASING.
THE 12Z GFS AND ECWMF BOTH ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER LOW TO NOT PHASE AND EJECT OFF THE EAST
COAST SUN INTO MON. THIS IN TURN WOULD KEEP THE COASTAL LOW FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST TO SPARE THE REGION ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN.
THAT BEING THE CASE...THIS IS STILL FAR OUT IN TIME AND LEAVES
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST.
FURTHER COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH THAT TRACKS TO THE NORTH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AT THE SAME
TIME THE SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW MOVES OFFSHORE. THE ECMWF IS MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THIS FEATURE AND SENDS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
ON SUN. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND KEEPS THE COLDER AIR BOTTLED
FARTHER TO THE NORTH. THIS BECOMES A POSSIBLE PLAYMAKER FOR A
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SUBSEQUENT CYCLOGENESIS WITH THE APPROACHING
LONGWAVE TROF. THIS SCENARIO IS PLAYED OUT IN THE ECMWF WITH ANOTHER
COASTAL LOW FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUE. BOTTOM LINE
HERE IS THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A
LOW CHANCE OF PCPN AT BEST. IN ADDITION...THE TRACK AND COLD AIR IS
IN QUESTION AS WELL. GENERALLY...STAYED WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS
TYPE OF FORECAST BEYOND 12Z SUN...PRIOR TO THAT TIME THERE IS
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT.
WHAT SEEMS MORE CERTAIN IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN
NEXT WEEK IS THAT A LONGWAVE TROF MOVES INTO THE EAST WITH A SHOT
OF MUCH COLDER AIR.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT LLWS/COMPRESSION EVENT FROM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
VFR TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO MOVE IN 13-16Z...WITH LIGHT
RAIN 14-17Z WEST TO 17-20Z EAST. HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD OCCUR AFTER
20Z INTO THE EVENING.
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE HEAVIEST RAIN PERIOD LATE IN THE
DAY AND INTO THE EVENING.
WINDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW BECOMES E-SE AT UNDER 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT THEN INCREASES OUT OF THE SE-SSE TO 10-15KT WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...CITY/LONG ISLAND TERMINALS SHOULD SEE SPEEDS
OF 15-23KT. GUSTS SHOULD BE INFREQUENT...BUT AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO
30 KTS IS POSSIBLE.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY AT ALL BUT CT/LONG ISLAND TERMINALS
BY MID MORNING...AND AT ALL TERMINALS BY MIDDAY. WINDS AROUND 2000
FT SHOULD BE AROUND 45-55KT AT MOST TERMINALS BY LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. WINDS SUBSIDE/LLWS ABATES
IN THE EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...BECOMING VFR IN THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH SUB
VFR EAST OF NYC METRO IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
WNW-NW WINDS G15-20 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
NEAR THE AREA WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING ON
NON-OCEAN WATERS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR MINIMAL GALES ON THE OCEAN
BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH A GALE WATCH REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR OCEAN
WATERS.
SCA SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL EVENT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO AVERAGE
AROUND AN INCH WITH LOCALLY UP TO 1.5 INCHES. NUISANCE FLOOD
THREAT FOR POOR DRAINAGE PONDING.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
GALE WATCH FROM 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DW
NEAR TERM...BC/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...BC/TONGUE
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...BC/DW
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
857 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR CHICAGO TUESDAY EVENING MOVES NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL QUEBEC WEDNESDAY NIGHT LIFTING A WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT SUCH THAT SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN
SECTIONS. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST SLOWLY BUILDS IN FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THERE IS
THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE COASTAL LOWS MOVING OFF THE EAST
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS HAVE ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL KFOK DOWN TO
27 F AS OF 01Z - 28 F AT KHTO. WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST AND WARM ADVECTION SETTING...EXPECT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY
OR RISE SLIGHTLY. EASTERN LONG ISLAND SHOULD JUMP UP TO 40 BY
SUNRISE.
NO PCPN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HERE.
BASED ON ADDITIONAL NWP DATA - 15Z SREF ALONG WITH LATEST RAP AND
HRRR TRENDS ALONG WITH 18Z NCEP DETERMINISTIC RUNS - HAVE DELAYED
ONSET OF RAIN SIGNIFICANTLY. LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE EARLY AFTERNOON,
IF NOT LATER, IN THE NY METRO, LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHER CT. COULD
HAVE SOME SPRINKLES IN THE MORNING...BUT NOT MEASURABLE.
HAVE GRADUALLY SHIFTED POPS EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
OTHER CHANGE IS TO END PCPN EARLIER FROM WEST TO EAST. AGAIN
BASED ON LATEST NWP DATA...THOUGH HAVE SOME CONCERN HERE - SEE
LONG TERM SECTION.
MILD TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE 50S. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FALL INTO THE 40S. MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHANGES HERE INCLUDE MAKING THURSDAY DRY (THOUGHT THIS MAY BE TOO
QUICK BASED ON GFS AND SREF) AND TO INTRODUCE SOME LOW POPS FOR
NOW IN EASTERN SECTIONS AS SHORTWAVE INDUCES WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ON OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY GFS AND SREF AND NOW 21Z SREF TRENDING WETTER AND IN
THIS CASE WHITE FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION. HAVE NOT
SEEN THE 21Z PLUMES YET, WILL NEED TO WATCH THE TRENDS HERE. TEMPS
SEEM COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW. SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL AMOUNTS.
OTHERWISE...FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER
WITH TEMPS MAINLY AT OR JUST ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS. A SOUTHERN
BRANCH LOW MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. AT THE
SAME TIME...THERE ARE MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE TROFS TRANSLATING EAST
IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET. THE BIG QUESTION IS DO
ANY OF THIS FEATURES MERGE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM. OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS...SOLUTIONS HAVE VARIED WITH THE AMOUNT OF PHASING.
THE 12Z GFS AND ECWMF BOTH ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER LOW TO NOT PHASE AND EJECT OFF THE EAST
COAST SUN INTO MON. THIS IN TURN WOULD KEEP THE COASTAL LOW FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST TO SPARE THE REGION ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN.
THAT BEING THE CASE...THIS IS STILL FAR OUT IN TIME AND LEAVES
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST.
FURTHER COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH THAT TRACKS TO THE NORTH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AT THE SAME
TIME THE SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW MOVES OFFSHORE. THE ECMWF IS MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THIS FEATURE AND SENDS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
ON SUN. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND KEEPS THE COLDER AIR BOTTLED
FARTHER TO THE NORTH. THIS BECOMES A POSSIBLE PLAYMAKER FOR A
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SUBSEQUENT CYCLOGENESIS WITH THE APPROACHING
LONGWAVE TROF. THIS SCENARIO IS PLAYED OUT IN THE ECMWF WITH ANOTHER
COASTAL LOW FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUE. BOTTOM LINE
HERE IS THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A
LOW CHANCE OF PCPN AT BEST. IN ADDITION...THE TRACK AND COLD AIR IS
IN QUESTION AS WELL. GENERALLY...STAYED WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS
TYPE OF FORECAST BEYOND 12Z SUN...PRIOR TO THAT TIME THERE IS
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT.
WHAT SEEMS MORE CERTAIN IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN
NEXT WEEK IS THAT A LONGWAVE TROF MOVES INTO THE EAST WITH A SHOT
OF MUCH COLDER AIR.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT LLWS/COMPRESSION EVENT FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT GIVES WAY TO A WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
VFR TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO MOVE IN 13-16Z...WITH LIGHT
RAIN 14-17Z WEST TO 17-20Z EAST. HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD OCCUR AFTER
20Z INTO THE EVENING.
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE HEAVIEST RAIN PERIOD LATE IN THE
DAY AND INTO THE EVENING.
WINDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW BECOMES E-SE AT UNDER 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT THEN INCREASES OUT OF THE SE-SSE TO 10-15KT WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...CITY/LONG ISLAND TERMINALS SHOULD SEE SPEEDS
OF 15-23KT. GUSTS SHOULD BE IN FREQUENT...BUT AN OCCASIONAL GUST
TO30 KTS IS POSSIBLE.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY AT ALL BUT CT/LONG ISLAND TERMINALS
BY MID MORNING...AND AT ALL TERMINALS BY MIDDAY. WINDS AROUND 2000
FT SHOULD BE AROUND 45-55KT AT MOST TERMINALS BY LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING...WITH IFR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25 KT.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING...WITH IFR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING...WITH IFR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING...WITH IFR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 KT. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING...WITH IFR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 KT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING...WITH
IFR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. WINDS SUBSIDE/LLWS ABATES
IN THE EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...BECOMING VFR IN THE MORNING. WNW-NW WINDS G15-20
KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
NEAR THE AREA WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING ON
NON-OCEAN WATERS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR MINIMAL GALES ON THE OCEAN
BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH A GALE WATCH REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR OCEAN
WATERS.
SCA SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL EVENT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO AVERAGE
AROUND AN INCH WITH LOCALLY UP TO 1.5 INCHES. NUISANCE FLOOD
THREAT FOR POOR DRAINAGE PONDING.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
GALE WATCH FROM 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DW
NEAR TERM...BC/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...BC/TONGUE
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...BC/DW
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
322 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY WITH JUST A SPOT SHOWER
ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVES TUESDAY WITH DRY AND SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...
FOR WEDNESDAY. ACCOMPANYING THREATS OF PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
OVER N/W MASS AND GUSTY SW WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
RETURN BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF A STORM REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY.
A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO INDICATE DEVELOP OF
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MA THIS MORNING. THERE
HAVE BEEN HINTS IN THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...WITH SOME SITES
BRIEFLY SHOWING EITHER PATCHY FOG OR LOWER CLOUD BASES. AT THIS
TIME THOUGH...THERE HAS BEEN NOTHING TO SUGGEST THESE CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. SHOULD THESE CLOUDS
DO DEVELOP AND PERSIST...THERE WOULD BE MAJOR IMPLICATIONS FOR THE
FORECAST TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. BEFORE IT
COMPLETES ITS JOURNEY THOUGH...EXPECTING ANOTHER VERY MILD DAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING...THEN BECOME WEST BEHIND
THIS FRONT. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 60 DEGREES. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE 20-25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
MOISTURE WILL AGAIN BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SHOWERS LATER TODAY.
THINKING THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST WHERE FLOW OFF THE OCEAN WILL PROVIDE THE GREATEST AMOUNT.
STILL...ONLY THINKING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT MOST THERE. EVEN
LESS OF A RISK FARTHER INLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE/CLOUDS/SPOT SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST AT 00Z AND CONTINUING TO MOVE OFFSHORE WITH A DRIER
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE REGION. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE NORMAL...AND CLOSE TO NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TUESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE MAJOR AXIS OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. WHILE MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES LOWER THAN MONDAY...THEY WILL ALSO STILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS TO START WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE MIDDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCAL SEABREEZES ALONG THE
COASTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...
- RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS WEDNESDAY...GUSTY SW WINDS
- INITIAL THREAT OF PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER N/W MASS
- RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BEGINNING THURSDAY
- KEEPING THE OFFSHORE STORM AT BAY FOR FRIDAY
- LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
*/ OVERVIEW...
AMPLIFIED WEATHER PATTERN OVER N AMERICA IS PERHAPS ON THE HORIZON
INTO MID-FEBRUARY. EVALUATING STRATOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES AT 10 MB...
IMPRESSIVE WARMTH OVER ASIA PIVOTING THE STRATOSPHERIC POLAR VORTEX
INTO THE N-ATLANTIC IF YOU ACCEPT THE FORECAST FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH.
THE POLAR JET ALTERS N-S STRAIGHT INTO THE C-CONUS DOWN INTO THE N
GULF. BOTH CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM /CFS/ AND EC ENSEMBLE PREDICTION
SYSTEM /EPS/ HIGHLIGHT A NOTEWORTHY NEGATIVE 2M TEMPERATURE ANOMALY
ACROSS THE C-CONUS ACCORDINGLY BY MID-FEBRUARY. THE ARCTIC AS WELL
AS THE E-PACIFIC OSCILLATION TRANSITION NEGATIVE WITH TIME.
BUT THAT IS ONLY ONE PIECE OF THE PUZZLE...THE OTHER BEING EL NINO
SOUTHERN OSCILLATION WITH POSSIBLE PHASE 3 THROUGH 5 MADDEN-JULIAN
CONTRIBUTIONS...KEEPING THE PACIFIC N-AMERICA PATTERN POSITIVE WITH
RIDGING OVER THE NE-PACIFIC AND A PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME DOWNSTREAM
WITH NO INDICATIONS OF BLOCKING ACROSS THE N-ATLANTIC. A COMBINATION
IN ALL WHICH WARRANTS WARM CONDITIONS OVER THE E-CONUS AS WE SAW
DURING NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER WHEN THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION WAS
GREATLY CONTRIBUTING IN ADDITION TO THE EL NINO SIGNAL.
A CHALLENGING LONG-TERM FORECAST AS BOTH STORM TRACK AND BAROCLINIC
ZONE ALONG WITH THE ACCOMPANYING SW-NE BELT OF WESTERLIES STRETCHED
ACROSS THE E-CONUS ARE LIKELY TO WOBBLE GRADUALLY E WITH TIME. SO TO
BEGIN FEBRUARY WE ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ON THE INSIDE OF THE STORM
TRACK WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...A WARM-WET PATTERN ANTICIPATED. BUT
BY MID-FEBRUARY WE MAY FIND OURSELVES ON THE FENCE RAIL BETWEEN THE
AIRMASSES WHEN EVALUATING H85 TEMPERATURES WITH THE EXPECTATION OF
COASTAL-OFFSHORE STORM DEVELOPMENT.
LOTS OF INTANGIBLES WITH LESSER CONFIDENCE FURTHER OUT IN TIME WITH
THE FORECAST. BUT OVERALL THE DISCUSSION ABOVE IS IN STEP WITH THE
CFS AND EPS WITH THE NE CONUS NAMELY S NEW ENGLAND WOBBLING WITHIN
THE TRANSITION ZONE OF BELOW- AND ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES W TO E.
CONTINUED CHALLENGES WITH THE JUXTAPOSITIONING OF EL NINO AND ARCTIC
OSCILLATION.
WILL HIGHLIGHT SIGNIFICANT OUTCOMES AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS BELOW.
*/ DISCUSSION...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS THE HEIGHT OF WHICH CONTINUES TO
BE AROUND MIDDAY / EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. HIGHLY ANOMALOUS DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGING AND UNDERGOING ASCENT AHEAD OF A SWEEPING
COLD FRONT AND BENEATH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. BUT THE FRONT QUICK-MOVING
WITH THE SNOWPACK MELTED IN THE DAYS PRIOR...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF URBAN / POOR-DRAINAGE FLOODING ISSUES. RAIN EXPECTED TO
BE MOVING OUT BY EVENING.
COULD SEE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE NOW AVAILABLE HAS
COMBINATION OF NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS / WEAK INSTABILITY / K-INDICES
GREATER THAN 30. A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE PROFILE ALOFT OF SUB-
TROPICAL PROPERTIES WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS NEARLY 1.5-INCHES ABOVE
THE INVERSION NOTED BELOW. WILL INTRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST.
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN. SW WIND CONSENSUS AT 2 KFT AGL AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT AT 50 TO 60 MPH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A
DEEP INVERSION ENOUGH SO THAT FORECAST WARMER 2M TEMPERATURES MAY
NOT OVERCOME WHICH LIMITS MIX-DOWN OF MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. BUT
CONSIDERING THE GRADIENT-ISALLOBARIC WIND RESPONSE WITH POTENTIAL
MECHANICAL MIXING PER POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL...30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS INDICATED BY CIPS ANALOGS OVER SE NEW ENGLAND.
MAY NEED WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE SUSTAINED WINDS ALONE. FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE MENTIONING OF POTENTIAL HAZARDS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. FOCUS ON THE MIDDAY / AFTERNOON HOURS DURING HEIGHT
OF WET WEATHER.
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WITH ONSET WEDNESDAY MORNING CONTINUES TO BE
POSSIBLE OVER N/W MASS AS FORECAST MODEL CONSENSUS AND CIPS ANALOGS
INDICATE. DESPITE THE MORNING EROSION OF SUB-FREEZING AIR...SOME OF
IT MAY REMAINED TRAPPED WITHIN THE VALLEYS. THINK ISOLATED POCKETS
WITH A SHORT-WINDOW OF IMPACTS INTO MID-MORNING. TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND FREEZING...LOW CONFIDENCE ON ACCUMULATION. FOCUS ESPECIALLY
ON N/W FRANKLIN COUNTY MASS. MAY HAVE TO ISSUE ADVISORY HEADLINES
WITH LIGHT RAIN MOVING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. AGAIN A SHORT WINDOW.
HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING THE 60 DEGREE MARK. WILL SEE RAIN / LOW
CLOUDS / FOG ESPECIALLY WITH HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR OVERRUNNING THE
COLDER OCEAN WATERS QUICKLY CLEAR OUT THROUGH EVENING AS WINDS BACK
NW. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THAT USHERS COOLER AIR S RESULTING IN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
FORECAST SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO POORLY HANDLE MID-LEVEL ENERGY THRU
AN OVERALL OPEN WAVE TROUGH. NOTING THE ABSENCE OF A DEEPER TROUGH
ESPECIALLY NEITHER CLOSED NOR NEGATIVELY TILTED...CAN NOT SEE THE
INFLECTION POINT LOW TO THE OFFSHORE COLD FRONT / BAROCLINIC ZONE
BECOMING EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG. ENSEMBLE MEANS AGREE UP ON A 1000 MB
LOW. SUBSEQUENTLY DO NOT EXPECT A RATHER ROBUST DEFORMATION ZONE
N/NW OF THE LOW...THUS IMPACTS REMAIN MAINLY S/E OF THE COASTLINE
WITH MOST OF THE FORCING AND MOISTURE KEPT OUT TO SEA. THEN AGAIN
SOME CONCERN AS TO HOW FAR THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING OUT OF THE S RATHER THAN THE N.
WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE SOMETHING MAY SKIRT BY...AM MORE CONCERNED AS
TO POTENTIAL OCEAN-EFFECT DEVELOPMENT WITH A COLDER AIRMASS SINKING
S WITH DECENT N-FLOW BENEATH MID-LEVEL FORCING. MAY HAVE TO WATCH
FOR IMPACTS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AS A RESULT.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER. COLDER AIRMASS BUILT S WITH
SOME ARCTIC ATTRIBUTES. INITIALLY MILD ON THURSDAY WITH SUNSHINE
EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES BECOME MORE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ON FRIDAY.
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
KEEPING WITH ENSEMBLE MEANS. N AND S STREAM ENERGY BIFURCATING THE
REGION THE FIRST OF WHICH LOOKS TO REINFORCE ARCTIC AIR S ALONG WITH
SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERY WEATHER TO THE N/W. THE SECOND POTENTIALLY
EVOLVES INTO SOMETHING BIGGER OFFSHORE. THE TWO APPEAR SEPARATE WITH
PASSAGE...PHASING FURTHER DOWNSTREAM WITHING THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW
PATTERN. A LOT OF SPREAD BETWEEN ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL FORECAST
GUIDANCE ALIKE. A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TODAY...STILL WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST IT...WITH SOME BRIEF SUPPORT
FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT TIMES. AS OF YET NOT EVEN CLOSE TO
BEING AS PREVALENT AS SOME MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. LOW CONFIDENCE THIS IFR DECK COULD DEVELOP RAPIDLY LATE
TONIGHT.
WITH A COLD FRONT QUICKLY CROSSING THE REGION...EXPECTING MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS. PATCHY MVFR IN ISOLATED SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE. MUCH STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 2 KFT LEADING TO A
RISK FOR LLWS THIS MORNING. THIS RISK WILL DIMINISH AS THE CORE OF
THIS LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OFFSHORE BY THIS AFTERNOON. WEST TO
NORTHWEST GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AS THIS COLD FRONT PASSES BY.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR WITH DRY WEATHER. NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT NORTH.
TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LIGHT NORTH WINDS VEER TO N-NE
DURING THE DAY. WILL SEE INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS LATE
KBOS TERMINAL...ONLY TIMEFRAME OF LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN TAF
IS FROM 12Z-17Z WHEN IFR CIGS MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT LOGAN/S
AIRSPACE. TYPICALLY SW WINDS ENOUGH OF LAND TRAJECTORY TO PRECLUDE
IFR CONDITIONS. KEPT THESE LOWER CLOUDS FEW-SCT AT THIS TIME. MAIN
CORE OF THESE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
CIGS LOWERING MVFR-IFR W TO E WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
+SHRA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING. POSSIBLE TSRA ESPECIALLY S/SE
TERMINALS. POTENTIAL -FZRA OVER N/W INTERIOR VALLEYS MAINLY AROUND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. S/SW-WINDS WITH POTENTIAL 30 TO 40 KT GUSTS
AROUND MIDDAY INTO AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY WITH +SHRA. LLWS IMPACTS
AS WELL 2 KFT AGL WITH 50-60 KT SW WINDS. IMPROVING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO VFR AS WINDS BACK W/NW.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...
WILL KEEP IT VFR WITH N-WINDS. CONCERNS OVER SE TERMINALS ESPECIALLY
CAPE AND ISLANDS WITH POTENTIAL MVFR / IFR AND -RA / -SN.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER WEST-NORTHWEST AS THIS FRONT PASSES BY.
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE UNTIL THIS FRONT PASSES BY. THE OTHER
STORY WILL BE ROUGH SEAS...FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS...THEN EXPANDING TO THE EASTERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD VISIBILITY...WITH THE RISK OF A SPOT SHOWER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SEAS TAKING
LONGER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY...THEN
GRADUALLY BE DROPPED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. S/SW-WINDS WITH POTENTIAL
30 TO 40 KT GUSTS WITH HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE S/SE
WATERS. GALES LIKELY. SOME VISIBILITY ISSUES. WAVES BUILDING 8-10
FEET. IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS BACK NW AND BECOME LIGHT
ALLOWING WAVES TO DIMINISH.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...
PERSISTENT N/NW WINDS WITH THE PRESENCE OF AN OFFSHORE STORM AROUND
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY SKIRT SE NEW ENGLAND
IF NOT OCEAN-EFFECT ACTIVITY. WAVES SLOW TO DIMINISH. REMAINING
ABOVE 5-FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR FEB 1ST - 2ND - 3RD - 4TH...
BOS...66/1989 - 55/2014 - 59/1991 - 64/1991
BDL...67/1989 - 54/1981 - 61/1991 - 64/1991
PVD...64/1989 - 57/1973 - 60/1991 - 66/1991
ORH...61/1989 - 62/1991 - 57/1909 - 53/1946
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ235.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ254-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...BELK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL
CLIMATE...WFO BOX STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
212 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY WITH JUST A SPOT SHOWER
ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVES TUESDAY WITH DRY AND SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS.
WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVES IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ALONG WITH SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
RETURN ON THURSDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVES MAY PASS CLOSE ENOUGH
TO BRING SOME PATCHY RAIN AND/OR SNOW BACK TOWARD THE COASTAL
PLAIN LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO INDICATE DEVELOP OF
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MA THIS MORNING. THERE
HAVE BEEN HINTS IN THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...WITH SOME SITES
BRIEFLY SHOWING EITHER PATCHY FOG OR LOWER CLOUD BASES. AT THIS
TIME THOUGH...THERE HAS BEEN NOTHING TO SUGGEST THESE CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. SHOULD THESE CLOUDS
DO DEVELOP AND PERSIST...THERE WOULD BE MAJOR IMPLICATIONS FOR THE
FORECAST TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. BEFORE IT
COMPLETES ITS JOURNEY THOUGH...EXPECTING ANOTHER VERY MILD DAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING...THEN BECOME WEST BEHIND
THIS FRONT. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 60 DEGREES. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE 20-25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
MOISTURE WILL AGAIN BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SHOWERS LATER TODAY.
THINKING THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST WHERE FLOW OFF THE OCEAN WILL PROVIDE THE GREATEST AMOUNT.
STILL...ONLY THINKING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT MOST THERE. EVEN
LESS OF A RISK FARTHER INLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE/CLOUDS/SPOT SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST AT 00Z AND CONTINUING TO MOVE OFFSHORE WITH A DRIER
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE REGION. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE NORMAL...AND CLOSE TO NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TUESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE MAJOR AXIS OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. WHILE MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES LOWER THAN MONDAY...THEY WILL ALSO STILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS TO START WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE MIDDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCAL SEABREEZES ALONG THE
COASTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
* ANOTHER DRY AND MILD DAY ON THURSDAY...THEN COOLER TEMPERATURES
MOVE IN BY NEXT WEEKEND
* WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVES PASSING S OF NEW ENGLAND MAY BRING PATCHY
LIGHT PRECIP TO THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE FRI INTO NEXT WEEKEND
OVERVIEW...
FAST MOVING MID AND UPPER LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOWER 48 EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. CUTOFF LOW PRES MOVES
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
AROUND THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MID WEEK. AS THIS LOW DEEPENS
FURTHER WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA...
ITS COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION WITH GOOD SLUG OF
MOISTURE AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED. OVERALL
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THEN SHIFTS WITH MORE AMPLIFICATION AS LONG
WAVE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE PACIFIC COAST LATE THIS WEEK. RESPONDING
LONG WAVE TROUGHING DIGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. HEADING EASTWARD
BY NEXT WEEKEND. SOME DETERMINISTIC MODELS SIGNAL COASTAL LOW PRES
DEVELOPMENT SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND BUT VERY LOW RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY.
DETAILS...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STRONG LOW PRES MOVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL CANADA TUE NIGHT/WED...WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING QUICKLY E WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.
EXPECT PRECIP TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE
NIGHT. WITH SOME INLAND TEMPS CLOSE TO OR BELOW FREEZING AT THE
ONSET OF THE PRECIP...WILL SEE PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN SOME
LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER VALLEYS WHERE THE SHALLOW COLD
AIR WILL BE BRIEFLY TRAPPED. S-SE WINDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING MILDER TEMPS SO ANY PATCHY FREEZING RAIN WILL
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY AROUND 12Z WED. WITH ANY FREEZING
RAIN...MAY NEED TO HOIST ADVISORIES MAINLY ACROSS N CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MA. WILL MONITOR.
WILL SEE STEADY RAINFALL WITH A FEW EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES. HAVE NOTED VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE...UP TO 50-60 KT AT BOTH H925 AND H85 AND 50 KT AT H7.
HOWEVER...INVERTED MODEL SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH LOW LAPSE RATES
INDICATE RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS SO SHOULD NOT MIX DOWN EXCEPT
WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS AROUND MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. ONLY
LOCATIONS WHERE GOOD LOW LEVEL MIXING SEEN WAS OVER THE EASTERN
WATERS AS WELL AS OUTER CAPE COD. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME S-SW WIND GUSTS THERE UP TO AROUND 30 KT...POSSIBLY DOWN TO
THE IMMEDIATE S COAST.
SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE S COAST
AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY WED AFTERNOON...SO CAN NOT RULE OUT A
POSSIBLE RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO.
AS FOR TEMPS...WITH GOOD INFLUX OF MILD TEMPS WITH S-SW WINDS IN
PLACE...EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER-MID 50S AT LEAST. COULD BE
A BIT MILDER MAINLY ACROSS E MA INTO RI.
EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN TO MOVE QUICKLY E AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES WED AND WINDS SHIFT TO W. MAY SEE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY WED NIGHT. SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN MAY
LINGER ALONG THE S COAST THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.
THURSDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS. COLDER AIR ACROSS WESTERN
AREAS WILL SLOWLY WORK E DURING THE DAY...SO WILL SEE MILD TEMPS
HOLD IN ANOTHER DAY ACROSS E MA/RI INTO NE CT. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WELL INLAND TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...
BIG QUESTIONS IN PLACE WITH STALLED FRONT OFF THE S COAST AND
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRES THAT MOVE ALONG IT. MODELS TRY TO PUSH THE
PRECIP FIELD BACK TOWARD THE COAST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...MAINLY
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE...MAY SEE
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW THERE. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS
PRECIP IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION SO LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
NOTING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST SOMETIME FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY...AT LEAST
ON 00Z ECMWF OP MODEL RUN. DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO HAVE WIDE RANGE IN THEIR RUN TO RUN SOLUTIONS...LIKELY DUE TO
RESOLUTION OF WEAK WAVES THAT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
OFFSHORE. THERE ARE ALSO QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER ANY PHASING
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WILL OCCUR. MANY TIMING
AND TRACK ISSUES THAT WILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED. VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TODAY...STILL WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST IT...WITH SOME BRIEF SUPPORT
FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT TIMES. AS OF YET NOT EVEN CLOSE TO
BEING AS PREVALENT AS SOME MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. LOW CONFIDENCE THIS IFR DECK COULD DEVELOP RAPIDLY LATE
TONIGHT.
WITH A COLD FRONT QUICKLY CROSSING THE REGION...EXPECTING MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS. PATCHY MVFR IN ISOLATED SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE. MUCH STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 2 KFT LEADING TO A
RISK FOR LLWS THIS MORNING. THIS RISK WILL DIMINISH AS THE CORE OF
THIS LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OFFSHORE BY THIS AFTERNOON. WEST TO
NORTHWEST GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AS THIS COLD FRONT PASSES BY.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR WITH DRY WEATHER. NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT NORTH.
TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LIGHT NORTH WINDS VEER TO N-NE
DURING THE DAY. WILL SEE INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS LATE
KBOS TERMINAL...ONLY TIMEFRAME OF LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN TAF
IS FROM 12Z-17Z WHEN IFR CIGS MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT LOGAN/S
AIRSPACE. TYPICALLY SW WINDS ENOUGH OF LAND TRAJECTORY TO PRECLUDE
IFR CONDITIONS. KEPT THESE LOWER CLOUDS FEW-SCT AT THIS TIME. MAIN
CORE OF THESE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR-IFR FROM W-E. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
AREAS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN QUICKLY SHIFT E OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE
PATCHY -FZRA AT THE START OF THE PRECIP OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT ACROSS
N CENTRAL AND W MA...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO RAIN BY AROUND
12Z. MAY SEE SOME EMBEDDED +SHRA DURING WED. BRIEF S-SW WIND GUSTS
UP TO AROUND 30 KT POSSIBLE ALONG S-SE COAST FROM THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. LLWS LIKELY WED INTO WED EVENING AS S-SW
WINDS AT 2KFT POSSIBLY UP TO 50 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
RAIN SHIFTS E EARLY...BUT SPOTTY -RA MAY LINGER ACROSS CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE FROM W-E AS WINDS SHIFT TO W. SOME LEFTOVER MVFR
CLOUDS MAY LINGER ALONG THE S COAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...
MAINLY VFR THU AND FRI. DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT W-NW WINDS
THU...THOUGH PATCHY -RA MAY LINGER ON THE S COAST. NORTHERN FRINGE
OF LOW PRES MAY PUSH -RA BACK TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN THU NIGHT-
FRI WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY -RA/-SN POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER WEST-NORTHWEST AS THIS FRONT PASSES BY.
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE UNTIL THIS FRONT PASSES BY. THE OTHER
STORY WILL BE ROUGH SEAS...FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS...THEN EXPANDING TO THE EASTERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD VISIBILITY...WITH THE RISK OF A SPOT SHOWER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SEAS TAKING
LONGER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY...THEN
GRADUALLY BE DROPPED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT LIGHT NE-E WINDS...WHICH WILL INCREASE AS
THEY VEER TO SE-S AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT TOWARD
DAYBREAK. SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT TUE...THEN BUILD AGAIN
TO AROUND 5 FT TUE NIGHT OVER THE OPEN WATERS AND S SOUNDS.
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE
WATERS. SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. S WINDS GUSTING UP TO
30-35 KT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS BY LATE WED MORNING THROUGH
WED EVENING...THEN SHOULD DIMINISH. GALES LIKELY. SEAS BUILDING
UP TO 7-10 FT ON THE OPEN WATERS.
RAIN ENDS WED NIGHT...THOUGH SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER ON
THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SW WINDS EARLY WED NIGHT SHIFT TO W AND
DIMINISH. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE...BUT WILL LINGER AOA 5 FT ON
THE OPEN WATERS.
THURSDAY...
EXPECT LIGHT N-NW WINDS DURING THU...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ON
THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS LINGERING AT AROUND 5 FT THROUGH THE
DAY...THEN WILL SUBSIDE THU NIGHT.
FRIDAY...
N WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM 15-20 KT. MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 25
KT ON THE OUTER WATERS E AND S OF CAPE COD WHERE SEAS MAY LINGER
AT AROUND 5 FT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY/MONDAY FEB 1ST...
BOS...66/1989
PVD...64/1989
BDL...67/1989
ORH...61/1989
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ235.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ254-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT
CLIMATE...STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
305 PM EST MON FEB 1 2016
.DISCUSSION...
...AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT...
TONIGHT/TUE...
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE THE EXTENT OF FOG FORMATION
LATE TONIGHT. LOCAL WRF MODELS AND THE HRRR SHOW AREAS OF DENSE
FOG FORMING. THE 12Z GFS MOS ONLY HINTS AT IT ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS. THIS IS PRETTY TYPICAL AS ONE OF THE PREDICTORS IN THE
MOS EQUATIONS IS CURRENT VISIBILITY...AND THERE WAS NO FOG AT 12Z.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NO EVIDENCE OF OVERNIGHT STRATOCUMULUS
EVEN THOUGH MOS SUGGESTS SOME. THE CURRENT CLOUD FIELD DOES NOT
LOOK REAL EXTENSIVE...SO THINK THAT THERE WILL BE LONG PERIODS OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOUTHEAST WINDS JUST
OFF THE SURFACE AROUND 10 KNOTS...BUT THE MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED
THE MUDDLED PRESSURE PATTERN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS VERY WELL...SO
DO NOT THINK THAT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE A BIG FOG
INHIBITOR. WILL HOLD ONTO THE CURRENT FORECAST WHICH HAS AREAS OF
FOG INLAND/NORTH COAST AND PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT SHIFT
CAN EVALUATE LOW LEVEL WIND/CLOUD TRENDS AND POSSIBLY BUMP UP
WORDING TO MENTION DENSE FOG.
OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE FAR
NORTH TO MID 60S IN THE SOUTH. IT WILL BE QUITE WARM TUE WITH
HIGHS REACHING 80 DEGREES AT MOST PLACES AND IN THE LOWER/MID 80S
OVER THE INTERIOR. DID SHAVE A DEGREE OR SO OFF OF MOS MAX TEMPS
THOUGH FOR THE EXPECTED EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.
TUE NIGHT...
FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. GULF COAST AND NORTH GULF OF MEXICO
PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST GULF AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE. FRESHENING
SOUTHWEST LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW FEEDS GULF MOISTURE INTO FLORIDA
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. POP STILL NOT MENTIONABLE AS MID AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...VORTICITY AND DIVERGENCE...WEST OF CENTRAL
FLORIDA.
WED-FRI...
FRONT STARTS OUT OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF AND FLORIDA BIG BEND
AREA WED THEN WORKS ITS WAY TO SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT THU AND
FRI. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH HIGHEST VALUES OCCURRING THU. BEST VERTICAL ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE 250MB JET CROSSING
OVERHEAD AND POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION SHOULD PRODUCE LIKELY
POPS FOR THU AND THU NIGHT.
PREVIOUS EXTENDED...
SAT-MON...SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK IS
SHOWN AT VARYING SPEEDS PIVOTING INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND
COMBINING WITH A ROBUST SUBTROPICAL JET TO PRODUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF DURING NEXT WEEKEND.
TIMING IS QUESTIONABLE AS FAR AS LOCAL EFFECTS SHOULD THIS FEATURE
QUICKLY EJECT ACROSS FL ROUGHLY DURING NEXT WEEKEND TO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE FEATURE DOES LOOK ENERGETIC AT THIS EARLY STAGE HOWEVER
AND WL HAVE TO BE MONITORED LATE THIS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SEE THE TONIGHT/TUE DISCUSSION ABOVE ABOUT FOG FORMATION.
TRENDED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DOWN IN LAST SET OF TERMINAL
FORECASTS. AS CLOUD AND LOW LEVEL WIND TRENDS BECOME MORE
APPARENT...EXPECT THAT THIS DOWNWARD TREND WILL CONTINUE AND
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIFR ESPECIALLY AT THE INLAND SITES. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY 15Z TUE AS LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN AN INCREASING STAGE THEN.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT-TUE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUED LIGHT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS A MORE CONSOLIDATED HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE DEVELOPING TONIGHT WITH AN AXIS TO OUR NORTH. THE
RESULTANT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL START TO TIGHTEN ON TUE AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND 15-20 KNOTS TUE NIGHT.
AREAS OF SEAS FOG ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUE MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO VOLUSIA
COUNTY.
WED-SAT...
POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WED AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND NORTH GULF OF MEXICO. THE
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS THU AND CLEARS THE SOUTHERN AREAS
FRI THEN ALL BUT STALLS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS...CUBA AND NORTH
BAHAMA ISLANDS FRI NIGHT AND SAT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT FRI AND SAT.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 15 KNOTS WED THRU THU AFTERNOON SHIFT TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THU 15 TO 20 KNOTS NEARSHORE AND 20 KNOTS AND
HIGHER OFFSHORE THU NIGHT AND FRI. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS OR MORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT.
SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET THROUGH THU AFTERNOON BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FEET BY
FRI EVENING AND REMAIN THERE SAT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO LOW RH CONCERNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK BUT THERE ARE FOG CHANCES...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WHERE AREAS OF
DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE. COMPUTER GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT WINDS WILL
INCREASE TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED...SO WHILE PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...
IT APPEARS THAT THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR MORE LOW STRATUS RATHER
THAN DENSE FOG.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 60 79 65 80 / 10 10 10 30
MCO 62 83 66 83 / 10 10 10 20
MLB 65 80 68 82 / 10 10 10 10
VRB 63 81 66 82 / 10 10 10 10
LEE 62 83 67 80 / 10 10 10 30
SFB 62 82 64 82 / 10 10 10 20
ORL 63 82 66 81 / 10 10 10 20
FPR 63 81 68 82 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
746 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN
STALL NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. COOLER AND MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND MAY
BRING A FEW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDLANDS...FROM SUMTER THROUGH
DENTSVILLE TO NEWBERRY EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE THIS AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER OVER THE NORTH MIDLANDS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WITH WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE
EVENING...BUT FOCUS LIKELY REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STILL IN PLACE AND DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE WEST.
THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN IN THE UPSTATE THROUGH
THIS EVENING WHICH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN KEEPING POPS LOW THIS
AFTERNOON.
A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED WITH READINGS NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY IN THE LOWER 60S UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...RANGING THROUGH THE 70S.
MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE AREA WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
UPPER 50S COMMON NORTH...WITH LOWER 60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...THROUGH SPREADING EAST TOWARD DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MOISTURE FLUX/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS LIKELY ONGOING DURING
THE MORNING...MAINLY ELEVATED. PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOUT 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...APPROACHING 1.80 INCHES BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE
IN THE DAY. MODELS SUGGEST WEAK CONVECTION EARLY WITH POSSIBLE
STRONGER CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. INSTABILITY
MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR...WITH SURFACE BASED CAP POSSIBLE AND
UPPER FORCING LIMITED. BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRONG. SOME POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR FRONT BUT THREAT APPEARS
MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS.
TEMPERATURES WARM IN THE LOW 70S MOST AREAS WITH STRONG SOUTH LOW
LEVEL FLOW/RESULTING WARM ADVECTION. LIKELY BREEZY IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS ABOVE 20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE
CWA...BUT SLOWING DOWN AS IT DOES. POPS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH
THE NIGHT ACROSS THE WEST...BUT WILL STILL HOLD ON TO CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS FROM WEST TO EAST DUE TO THE FRONT SLOWING DOWN.
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH THE FRONT STALLED OUT ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY...THERE SHOULD
STILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO PORTIONS OF THURSDAY NIGHT.
UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE FRIDAY EXPECT DRYING AND COOLER CONDITIONS...NEAR
OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY...AND WILL FORECAST LOW POPS LATE
IN THE PERIOD DUE TO POSSIBLE COASTAL STORM...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW
DUE TO LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT. USED THE GFS LAMP FOR THE TIMING OF DEVELOPING
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. THE NAM INDICATES LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE
INCLUDED IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. GREATER MIXING WITH A GENERAL
TREND TO GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS
GREATER MIXING DEVELOPS CLOSER TO THE FRONT. USED THE GFS LAMP FOR
THE WIND GUST FORECAST. VERY STRONG WINDS COULD POSSIBLY MIX DOWN
WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR BUT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY
EXPECT THESE WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AND THE CHANCE WAS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
626 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN
STALL NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. COOLER AND MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND MAY
BRING A FEW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDLANDS...FROM SUMTER THROUGH
DENTSVILLE TO NEWBERRY EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE THIS AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER OVER THE NORTH MIDLANDS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WITH WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE
EVENING...BUT FOCUS LIKELY REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STILL IN PLACE AND DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE WEST.
THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN IN THE UPSTATE THROUGH
THIS EVENING WHICH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN KEEPING POPS LOW THIS
AFTERNOON.
A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED WITH READINGS NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY IN THE LOWER 60S UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...RANGING THROUGH THE 70S.
MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE AREA WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
UPPER 50S COMMON NORTH...WITH LOWER 60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...THROUGH SPREADING EAST TOWARD DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MOISTURE FLUX/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS LIKELY ONGOING DURING
THE MORNING...MAINLY ELEVATED. PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOUT 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...APPROACHING 1.80 INCHES BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE
IN THE DAY. MODELS SUGGEST WEAK CONVECTION EARLY WITH POSSIBLE
STRONGER CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. INSTABILITY
MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR...WITH SURFACE BASED CAP POSSIBLE AND
UPPER FORCING LIMITED. BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRONG. SOME POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR FRONT BUT THREAT APPEARS
MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS.
TEMPERATURES WARM IN THE LOW 70S MOST AREAS WITH STRONG SOUTH LOW
LEVEL FLOW/RESULTING WARM ADVECTION. LIKELY BREEZY IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS ABOVE 20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE
CWA...BUT SLOWING DOWN AS IT DOES. POPS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH
THE NIGHT ACROSS THE WEST...BUT WILL STILL HOLD ON TO CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS FROM WEST TO EAST DUE TO THE FRONT SLOWING DOWN.
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH THE FRONT STALLED OUT ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY...THERE SHOULD
STILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO PORTIONS OF THURSDAY NIGHT.
UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE FRIDAY EXPECT DRYING AND COOLER CONDITIONS...NEAR
OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY...AND WILL FORECAST LOW POPS LATE
IN THE PERIOD DUE TO POSSIBLE COASTAL STORM...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW
DUE TO LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT. USED THE GFS LAMP FOR THE TIMING OF DEVELOPING
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. THE NAM INDICATES LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE
INCLUDED IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. GREATER MIXING WITH A GENERAL
TREND TO GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS
GREATER MIXING DEVELOPS CLOSER TO THE FRONT. USED THE GFS LAMP FOR
THE WIND GUST FORECAST. VERY STRONG WINDS COULD POSSIBLY MIX DOWN
WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR BUT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY
EXPECT THESE WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AND THE CHANCE WAS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM. RESTRICTIONS
MAY OCCUR AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
902 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 851 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
Low pressure center associated with ongoing strong storm system is
currently near the western Iowa/Missouri border area. An occluded
boundary extends east southeast from the low across the northern
2/3 or so of the forecast area. The weak pressure gradient in the
vicinity of this boundary and associated light winds, coupled with
moisture from today`s rains and a strong low level inversion, has
allowed dense fog to develop. The dense fog has been spreading
east with time behind the convective line that is currently just
east of the I-57 corridor. Have recently expanded Dense Fog
Advisory across all but far SE portion of forecast area to account
for current and expected fog development. As the surface low lifts
slowly northeast overnight, winds will become gusty out of the
southwest and help to dissipate the fog.
Otherwise, once the thin convective line in far eastern portion of
the forecast area departs, the balance of the night should be dry.
West central Illinois may see some light snow/flurries by daybreak
as the deformation zone of the system slides by. But, by and
large, expect any snow to hold off until the morning hours
Wednesday. However, do not expect any accumulation at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
Surface map at 20Z/2 pm showed strong 993 mb low pressure along the
eastern KS/NE border with an occluding front extending through
northern MO into southern IL. Another boundary/warm front was just
south of Peoria and just north of BMI with some fog along and north
of this boundary. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms were
over central IL at mid afternoon mainly east of a Galesburg to St
Louis line and tracking NNE. A narrow band of heavier rains with
some thunder was along I-55 from Springfield to Bloomington.
Meanwhile a dry slot with clearing skies was over central and
southern MO and moving northeast toward SW IL.
Temps ranged from 37F at Galesburg and Lacon where east winds
persisted to 57F along highway 50 at Flora, Lawrenceville and Mount
Carmel airports where se winds were veering SSE. Pressure gradient
has weakened a bit during the day across central IL so ESE winds not
quite as strong ranging from 10-20 mph and gusts of 20-30 mph at mid
afternoon.
The HRRR model has been doing fairly well with convection so far
today and leaned on this model going into this evening. It has the
showers and isolated thunderstorms ending over western CWA late this
afternoon and in eastern IL during early/mid evening with most areas
dry by 9 or 10 pm. SPC still have slight risk of severe storms this
afternoon southeast of Terre Haute to Flora line where 15% risk of
damaging wind gusts and 5% risk of tornadoes and large hail. Better
threat of severe storms is over more unstable airmass in far
southeast IL into KY and sw IN from I-64 south.
Low pressure to track northeast to near Dubuque by 09Z/3 am and into
southeast WI by sunrise Wed. A strong short wave/trof to push into
the IL river valley between 09-12Z Wed (3-6 am Wed) and have slight
chances of light rain or light snow later tonight. Lows late tonight
to range from mid 30s over the IL river valley (33F at Galesburg) to
the lower 40s near the Wabash river (42F at Lawrenceville). SE winds
to turn SW by overnight and range from 8-16 mph overall tonight.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
Tomorrow, the low will be pushing through the Great Lakes region
with a trailing sfc trough that will rotate through northern IL.
This sfc trough will also coincide with the 500mb trough that will
mover through the area. The combination of these two features will
bring a slight chance of light snow or rain to northwestern parts of
the CWA Wed morning. By afternoon all pcpn will have moved off to
the northeast, out of the CWA. Brief high pressure will move through
the area after this weather system moves through, along with the
pattern changing to a long wave trough pattern. This trough pattern
will bring another sfc trough through the area Thursday night, but
there will be a severe lack of moisture, so no pcpn is expected.
Then dry weather will be expected through the rest of the week and
into the the weekend. Temps will hover around normal through the
rest of the week and then will warm to above normal levels for the
weekend.
At the end of the weekend and the beginning of next week a northwest
flow pattern will setup over the area and looks like it may hang
around for an extended period. This northwest flow will allow a
series of clippers to move southeast through the Great Lakes area,
Sunday night through Tuesday. For now, will just keep the slight
chance of pcpn that the blended forecast has. Once the clippers
begin to move through, colder air will be allowed to pour into the
area and bring temps back to below normal.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 556 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
Strong low pressure will continue to impact the central Illinois
terminal area through the period. Although the bulk of the
precipitation has ended locally, periods of IFR/MVFR conditions
and gusty winds are still anticipated. A period of unrestricted
CIGs & VSBYs will accompany the system`s dry slot later this
evening, but wrap around MVFR clouds will come back into the area
by late tonight. While a lull in the gusty winds is expected for
much of this evening, gusty southwest to west winds will return by
late tonight.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 2 AM CST Wednesday for ILZ027>031-
036>038-041>046-053>057.
Dense Fog Advisory until midnight CST tonight for ILZ040-047>052-
061.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
601 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
Surface map at 20Z/2 pm showed strong 993 mb low pressure along the
eastern KS/NE border with an occluding front extending through
northern MO into southern IL. Another boundary/warm front was just
south of Peoria and just north of BMI with some fog along and north
of this boundary. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms were
over central IL at mid afternoon mainly east of a Galesburg to St
Louis line and tracking NNE. A narrow band of heavier rains with
some thunder was along I-55 from Springfield to Bloomington.
Meanwhile a dry slot with clearing skies was over central and
southern MO and moving northeast toward SW IL.
Temps ranged from 37F at Galesburg and Lacon where east winds
persisted to 57F along highway 50 at Flora, Lawrenceville and Mount
Carmel airports where se winds were veering SSE. Pressure gradient
has weakened a bit during the day across central IL so ESE winds not
quite as strong ranging from 10-20 mph and gusts of 20-30 mph at mid
afternoon.
The HRRR model has been doing fairly well with convection so far
today and leaned on this model going into this evening. It has the
showers and isolated thunderstorms ending over western CWA late this
afternoon and in eastern IL during early/mid evening with most areas
dry by 9 or 10 pm. SPC still have slight risk of severe storms this
afternoon southeast of Terre Haute to Flora line where 15% risk of
damaging wind gusts and 5% risk of tornadoes and large hail. Better
threat of severe storms is over more unstable airmass in far
southeast IL into KY and sw IN from I-64 south.
Low pressure to track northeast to near Dubuque by 09Z/3 am and into
southeast WI by sunrise Wed. A strong short wave/trof to push into
the IL river valley between 09-12Z Wed (3-6 am Wed) and have slight
chances of light rain or light snow later tonight. Lows late tonight
to range from mid 30s over the IL river valley (33F at Galesburg) to
the lower 40s near the Wabash river (42F at Lawrenceville). SE winds
to turn SW by overnight and range from 8-16 mph overall tonight.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
Tomorrow, the low will be pushing through the Great Lakes region
with a trailing sfc trough that will rotate through northern IL.
This sfc trough will also coincide with the 500mb trough that will
mover through the area. The combination of these two features will
bring a slight chance of light snow or rain to northwestern parts of
the CWA Wed morning. By afternoon all pcpn will have moved off to
the northeast, out of the CWA. Brief high pressure will move through
the area after this weather system moves through, along with the
pattern changing to a long wave trough pattern. This trough pattern
will bring another sfc trough through the area Thursday night, but
there will be a severe lack of moisture, so no pcpn is expected.
Then dry weather will be expected through the rest of the week and
into the the weekend. Temps will hover around normal through the
rest of the week and then will warm to above normal levels for the
weekend.
At the end of the weekend and the beginning of next week a northwest
flow pattern will setup over the area and looks like it may hang
around for an extended period. This northwest flow will allow a
series of clippers to move southeast through the Great Lakes area,
Sunday night through Tuesday. For now, will just keep the slight
chance of pcpn that the blended forecast has. Once the clippers
begin to move through, colder air will be allowed to pour into the
area and bring temps back to below normal.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 556 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
Strong low pressure will continue to impact the central Illinois
terminal area through the period. Although the bulk of the
precipitation has ended locally, periods of IFR/MVFR conditions
and gusty winds are still anticipated. A period of unrestricted
CIGs & VSBYs will accompany the system`s dry slot later this
evening, but wrap around MVFR clouds will come back into the area
by late tonight. While a lull in the gusty winds is expected for
much of this evening, gusty southwest to west winds will return by
late tonight.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1104 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016
Area of dense fog this morning to the NW is persisting through
midday, NW of the Illinois River Valley. Temps still lingering
just below the freezing mark, resulting in some freezing fog and
temperatures at least 10 degrees behind the diurnal swing. Have
updated the grids with a significant drop to the MaxT in that
region. Remainder of the forecast area looks to be on track.
Updates out momentarily.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016
High pressure advancing eastward into Illinois today will bring
cooler air to central Illinois, along with dry conditions. Early
morning temperatures dipping below freezing west and north of Peoria
could create black ice for untreated roads, especially bridges and
overpasses. Satellite images indicate a steady stream of high cirrus
clouds will be present for most of the day today, which should help
to preclude much in the way of thicker fog formation early this
morning. The cooler start and filtered sunshine will produce high
temperatures 10 to 15 degrees cooler than yesterday, but still well
above normal. Highs should reach the mid 40s along and north of
I-74, with lower 50s south of I-70. Winds will be relatively
light today under the surface ridge axis, with wind directions
eventually becoming easterly this afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016
Long-advertised winter storm system taking shape across the
southwest U.S. early this morning, with upper low over southern
California and the surface low just east of Las Vegas at 2 am. The
model consensus continues to favor a track across the Oklahoma
panhandle this evening, then northeast across northern Missouri
Tuesday afternoon before reaching the general vicinity of Chicago by
early evening. With us on the south side of the track, the main
concern will be with convective trends, followed by precipitation
trends as the system pulls away Tuesday night.
Have removed the mention of slight chance of freezing rain across
the far northern CWA late tonight, as temperatures appear to stay in
the mid 30s overnight in that area. Forecast soundings do support
some sleet/snow mixing with the rain at first toward Galesburg,
before a quick transition to rain. Rain chances before sunrise will
mainly be west of I-55, as a stiff east wind will slow the column
moistening a bit. However, showers will quickly overspread the
forecast area Tuesday morning. Latest SPC Day2 outlook extended the
marginal risk of severe weather as far northwest as a Bloomington to
Springfield line, with the slight risk as far north as Mattoon and
Paris. Still a significant amount of shear progged in the lower
levels, with 0-6km bulk shear over 80 knots and an 850 mb jet of 60-
65 knots over the eastern CWA this afternoon. With these numbers,
some damaging winds may result with the stronger storms. Have
mentioned a chance of storms over most of the CWA in the afternoon,
but the more organized line will likely be taking shape along the
I-57 corridor around mid afternoon before racing east.
Dry slot continues to be favored by most of the model guidance, with
this feature punching northeast. Several already bring this into the
western CWA by late afternoon, and over most of the CWA in the
evening, and thus the forecast has been trended toward a period of
slight chance/no chance PoP`s in the evening. Overnight, some slight
chances remain warranted through, as the secondary trough axis
swings through. More substantial deformation-type precipitation
generally progged to stay just to our north, but some flurries are
likely to occur into Wednesday morning.
Remainder of the forecast currently expected to remain fairly quiet.
GFS and ECMWF models favor long wave troughs passing through, but
both keep the coldest air bottled up in Canada, so coldest temps on
Wednesday/Thursday still expected to top out in the 30s most areas.
Both favor a more substantial surge of colder air early next week,
beyond the current forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 556 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016
Main concern through the early morning hours will be the threat
for some lower vsbys in fog with the better threat near KPIA in
the 13z-15z time frame. Weak high pressure advancing into central
Illinois is setting up an inversion, trapping low level moisture
near the ground. Satellite images show an area of LIFR clouds and
IFR VIS approaching PIA from the NW. HRRR output indicates it
could reach as far east as PIA between 13z-16z, but confidence is
low on the southern extent of those conditions. Therefore, have
continued to show just MVFR fog in a tempo through 15z and SCT004
clouds. Light MVFR fog has been developing toward CMI and east of
there, but no significant fog is expected near CMI. Otherwise, VFR
conditions should prevail at the terminal sites for a majority of
the next 24 hours.
Winds will remain light and variable under the surface ridge axis
for much of the day. Winds are expected to become easterly late
this afternoon and evening. As the low pressure system approaches
late tonight, easterly surface winds will increase to around 15kt
sustained.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
557 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016
High pressure advancing eastward into Illinois today will bring
cooler air to central Illinois, along with dry conditions. Early
morning temperatures dipping below freezing west and north of Peoria
could create black ice for untreated roads, especially bridges and
overpasses. Satellite images indicate a steady stream of high cirrus
clouds will be present for most of the day today, which should help
to preclude much in the way of thicker fog formation early this
morning. The cooler start and filtered sunshine will produce high
temperatures 10 to 15 degrees cooler than yesterday, but still well
above normal. Highs should reach the mid 40s along and north of
I-74, with lower 50s south of I-70. Winds will be relatively
light today under the surface ridge axis, with wind directions
eventually becoming easterly this afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016
Long-advertised winter storm system taking shape across the
southwest U.S. early this morning, with upper low over southern
California and the surface low just east of Las Vegas at 2 am. The
model consensus continues to favor a track across the Oklahoma
panhandle this evening, then northeast across northern Missouri
Tuesday afternoon before reaching the general vicinity of Chicago by
early evening. With us on the south side of the track, the main
concern will be with convective trends, followed by precipitation
trends as the system pulls away Tuesday night.
Have removed the mention of slight chance of freezing rain across
the far northern CWA late tonight, as temperatures appear to stay in
the mid 30s overnight in that area. Forecast soundings do support
some sleet/snow mixing with the rain at first toward Galesburg,
before a quick transition to rain. Rain chances before sunrise will
mainly be west of I-55, as a stiff east wind will slow the column
moistening a bit. However, showers will quickly overspread the
forecast area Tuesday morning. Latest SPC Day2 outlook extended the
marginal risk of severe weather as far northwest as a Bloomington to
Springfield line, with the slight risk as far north as Mattoon and
Paris. Still a significant amount of shear progged in the lower
levels, with 0-6km bulk shear over 80 knots and an 850 mb jet of 60-
65 knots over the eastern CWA this afternoon. With these numbers,
some damaging winds may result with the stronger storms. Have
mentioned a chance of storms over most of the CWA in the afternoon,
but the more organized line will likely be taking shape along the
I-57 corridor around mid afternoon before racing east.
Dry slot continues to be favored by most of the model guidance, with
this feature punching northeast. Several already bring this into the
western CWA by late afternoon, and over most of the CWA in the
evening, and thus the forecast has been trended toward a period of
slight chance/no chance PoP`s in the evening. Overnight, some slight
chances remain warranted through, as the secondary trough axis
swings through. More substantial deformation-type precipitation
generally progged to stay just to our north, but some flurries are
likely to occur into Wednesday morning.
Remainder of the forecast currently expected to remain fairly quiet.
GFS and ECMWF models favor long wave troughs passing through, but
both keep the coldest air bottled up in Canada, so coldest temps on
Wednesday/Thursday still expected to top out in the 30s most areas.
Both favor a more substantial surge of colder air early next week,
beyond the current forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 556 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016
Main concern through the early morning hours will be the threat
for some lower vsbys in fog with the better threat near KPIA in
the 13z-15z time frame. Weak high pressure advancing into central
Illinois is setting up an inversion, trapping low level moisture
near the ground. Satellite images show an area of LIFR clouds and
IFR VIS approaching PIA from the NW. HRRR output indicates it
could reach as far east as PIA between 13z-16z, but confidence is
low on the southern extent of those conditions. Therefore, have
continued to show just MVFR fog in a tempo through 15z and SCT004
clouds. Light MVFR fog has been developing toward CMI and east of
there, but no significant fog is expected near CMI. Otherwise, VFR
conditions should prevail at the terminal sites for a majority of
the next 24 hours.
Winds will remain light and variable under the surface ridge axis
for much of the day. Winds are expected to become easterly late
this afternoon and evening. As the low pressure system approaches
late tonight, easterly surface winds will increase to around 15kt
sustained.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
627 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
A DEEP CYCLONE OVER NORTHERN KANSAS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WEAKEN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE WARM
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT UP ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT CAUSING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S OVER
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST INDIANA TO THE MID 40S OVER WEST
CENTRAL OHIO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
DEEP LYRD CYCLONE OVR NRN KS THIS AFTN WILL OPEN EWD
AND DEAMPLIFY SHRT TERM. ATTENDANT SHARP WMFNTL BNDRY WILL CONT TO
MIX RAPIDLY NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING AND XPC MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE CWA WILL FALL INTO THE WARM SECTOR FOR A TIME THIS EVENING.
UPSTREAM LLJ ACRS IL WILL CONT TO TRANSLATE EWD W/TIME AIDING
DOWNSTREAM MSTR FLUX/THETA-E ADVTN LOCALLY. THUS XPC BKN SHRA/TSRA
ACRS IL INTO WRN IN WILL CONGEAL AND EXPAND W/TIME THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WHILE SVR IS NOT XPCD...STG 60+ PLUS 925MB FLW MAY YIELD A
FEW STG GUSTS IN THE HEAVIEST RAIN CORES THIS EVENING.
OTRWS CLASSIC MID LVL DRYSLOT WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA W-E OVERNIGHT
AS SHRA END. SRN END OF WRAP AROUND ASSOCD/W WKNG MID LVL COMMA HEAD
MAY CLIP NRN/NWRN AREAS WED AFTN YET INHERITED POPS LOOK OVERDONE.
REGARDLESS LL CAA LAGS W/ERN AREAS QUITE MILD TO START WED AM
FOLLOWED BY FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED WED NIGHT INTO THURS
MORNING AS THERMAL TROUGH ADVECTS OVER THE AREA AMID LINGERING
MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW. 850MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -12C BY
MORNING AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE DEPTHS UP TO 6
KFT. FETCH IS LIMITED THOUGH (270-290)...ESPECIALLY BY THE TIME
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. WILL ALSO BE A LIMITED TIME WINDOW FOR
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK TO THE SW BY THURS AFTERNOON WITH
LOWERING INVERSION AS MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD. WILL
ALSO BE INCREASING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT BY LATER THURS MORNING AND
SUSPECT ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL END BY 18Z. A FEW LOCATIONS
IN OUR NW ZONES MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. SOME LATE DAY WAA SHOULD PUSH HIGH TEMPS INTO
THE LOW 30S.
REST OF THE LONG TERM RELATIVELY QUIET. SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH JUST A FEW...VERY
SMALL...CHANCES FOR PRECIP AS A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES CROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT THIS PERIOD TO BE PRIMARILY DRY THOUGH. MORE
INTERESTING STORY IS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NEXT WEEK WITH A VERY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND
LONGWAVE RIDGING OUT WEST. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING THE RETURN OF
ARCTIC AIR...THOUGH MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH EXACT TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THERMAL TROUGH. REGARDLESS OF THE DETAILS...DO EXPECT
COLDER CONDITIONS AND SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
EARLIER CONVECTION HAS LIFTED NORTH OF TERMINALS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES LEFT TO THE SOUTH IN WARM
SECTOR. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TSRA NEXT HOUR OR TWO BUT BETTER
CHANCES FOR THUNDER STILL LIE ALONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE EAST
AS SFC LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. HIRES
GUIDANCE STILL DEVELOPS CONVECTION ALONG FRONT BETWEEN 01 AND
03Z. SATELLITE AND SFC OBS SHOW PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT OVER MO WHICH
WILL WORK IN BEHIND FRONT. LATEST HRRR INDICATES IFR POSSIBLE
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT AS UPSTREAM IFR CIGS ROTATE AROUND
BACKSIDE OF LOW. DID ADD PERIOD OF IFR TO KSBN BEFORE DRIER AIR
MOVES IN. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION LEADING TO A MVFR CLOUD DECK AND SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD AIR DEEPENS THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...LASHLEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
602 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
SEVERAL SITES ARE AT OR BELOW 1/4 MILE ON VISIBILITY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SE IA AND WCNTRL IL. AS THE SFC LOW APPROACHES THIS EVE
ANTICIPATE DENSE FOG TO EXPAND GIVEN LIGHT AND WEAKLY CONVERGENT
WINDS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE. AS RESULT... HAVE GONE WITH A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR AREAS ROUGHLY NEAR TO SOUTH OF I-80 THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LATEST RUNS OF HRRR SFC VIS FIELDS DOING PRETTY WELL AND
SHOWS EXPANSION EVEN INTO THE NORTHERN CWA LATER THIS EVE... WHICH
CERTAINLY IS POSSIBLE AS THE LOW MOVES IN AND WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. OTHERWISE... DO ANTICIPATE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATE EVE
AND OVRNGT AS WINDS SHIFT TO W/SW AND INCREASE AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
OCCLUDED CYCLONE IN NORTHEAST KS (992 MB) WITH OCCLUDED FRONT IN
NORTHERN MO. DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON IN PORTIONS OF
EASTERN IA AND NW IL BUT THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE CWA. EAST WINDS WERE STILL GUSTING TO 30
MPH ALONG HIGHWAY 20. PATCHY FOG WAS NOTED IN OUR FAR SOUTH. DRY
SLOT WAS MOVING INTO NORTHERN MO BUT THE LATEST SATELLITE FRAMES
SUGGEST THIS IS COMING TO A GRINDING HALT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
FORECAST FOCUS ON FOG POTENTIAL AND RETURN OF SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
OUR NW CWA LATER TONIGHT.
TONIGHT...CYCLONE WILL TRACK TO NEAR INDEPENDENCE IA AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND THEN TOWARDS MILWAUKEE BY 6 AM. THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN OUR FAR NORTH INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS CLOSER TO THE
AREA AND WINDS BECOME RATHER LIGHT. FOR NOW WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG.
MODELS DEVELOP AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT IN OUR NW CWA
AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE REGION. CLOSE TO AN
INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT INDEPENDENCE BY SUNRISE WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE
TOWARDS MORNING IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S WEST TO THE LOWER 30S EAST.
HAASE
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
WEDNESDAY...UPPER WAVE/TROF WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACRS
WI WEAKENING/OPENING UP ALONG THE WAY INTO EARLY WED AFTERNOON. THE
SFC LOW WILL BE MOVING THE SAME WAY JUST TO THE LEE SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROF AXIS...WHILE INVERTED SFC TROF OFF THIS FEATURE HANGS BACK ACRS
THE CENTRAL INTO NORTHEASTERN CWA FOR PART OF THE MORNING.
SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF DIMINISHING DEF ZONE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACRS THE NORTHERN HALF TO THIRD OF THE DVN
CWA THROUGH NOON...WITH CURRENT PROJECTIONS BY BULK OF LATEST RUN
MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING THAT AREAS NORTH OF HWY 30 MAY GET
ANYWHERE FROM A FEW TENTHS UP TO A HALF INCH ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUM
BY LATE MORNING. IN-WRAPPING WINDS IN TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEHIND EXITING INVERTED TROF WILL INCREASE T0 15-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH...FROM WEST-TO-EAST AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW
ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 30 WED MORNING FOR MAINLY THE WINDS COMBINING
WITH THE AMBIENT FALLING SNOW. BUT WITH AMBIENT TEMPS IN THE 30S
FOR PART OF THE MORNING BEFORE COLD AIR ADVECTION DROP-OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON...EXPECTED WET OR SLUSHY GROUND COVER SNOW WHERE THERE IS
GROUND COVER SNOW...THE TRUE BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED
AND THERE MAY BE MORE IN THE WAY OF SOME LOWER BASED DRIFTING IN
OPEN AREAS. AGAIN EXPECT MORE OF THE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DURING
THE WIND INCREASE WHILE SNOW IS STILL FALLING....AS OPPOSED
TO LOFTED GROUND SNOW. A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS INTO WED NIGHT.
A COLD NIGHT WED NIGHT WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT LOWS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA BY THU MORNING. EVEN WITH WINDS DECREASING TO 6-10
MPH...AMBIENT WIND CHILLS WILL DIP TO ZERO OR COLDER IN THESE
NORTHWESTERN AREAS THROUGH MID THU MORNING.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ADVERTISE A DIGGING
CLIPPER IN NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT ACRS MN INTO WI LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SKIRTING THE
NORTHERN CWA AT THAT TIME...BUT WITH LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN ADEQUATE
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/ICE CRYSTAL DEVELOPMENT LOCALLY WILL KEEP THE
FCST DRY FOR NOW. ACTIVE NORTHWESTERLY CLIPPER TRACK MAY ACTUALLY
INDUCE A WARMING TREND LATER ON FRI AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE ROLLING
ACRS MN FOR HIGHS A BIT MILDER THAN THU...AFTER A CHILL DOWN THE
NIGHT BEFORE/THU NIGHT-FRI AM BEHIND THE PREVIOUS CLIPPER. CLIPPER
INDUCED WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES FRI NIGHT BUT
AGAIN WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY FOR NOW.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THERMALLY MODERATION CONTINUES INTO SAT...
BEFORE YET ANOTHER AND MORE VIGOROUS CLIPPER INDICATED BY SEVERAL OF
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TAKES AIM AT THE WESTERN GRT LKS BY LATE
SUNDAY. LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY BE ON THE
INCREASE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM BY LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LONG RANGE INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE SOUTHWARD PLUNGING UPPER JET AND DEEP L/W TROF FORMATION
DOWN ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE TN VALLEY REGIONS THIS PERIOD.
SHARPLY AMPLIFYING WEST COAST RIDGING AND THIS EVOLVING PATTERN
WOULD OPEN UP THE REGION TO COLD CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR MASSES DUMPING
DOWN THE MIDWEST/WESTERN GRT LKS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. A COLD CORE
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MON INTO TUE
ACRS THE AREA. BUT CURRENT PROGS SUCH AS THE 12Z RUN GFS AND ECMWF
WHILE SHOWING CANADIAN AIR MASS FLUX FROM THE NORTH...THEY ARE NOT
SHOWING EXTREME COLD SUCH AS H85 MB TEMPS WELL IN THE -20C OR
COLDER VALUES FOR NOW. ..12..
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN IA. SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WILL ROTATE ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST IA LATER THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING WED WILL SEE
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS TERMINALS WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS 15-25+ KTS AND A PERIOD OF -SN. CONDITIONS THEN SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR WED PM WITH CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CEDAR-DES
MOINES-HENRY IA-IOWA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LEE-LOUISA-
MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BUREAU-HANCOCK-
HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-
WARREN.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MCCLURE
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...MCCLURE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
410 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 409 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS SQUARELY ON TIMING AND IMPACTS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE IMPENDING WINTER STORM. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THE LARGE NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH EMERGING IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. IN RESPONSE...SFC CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES TO
INTENSIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH MAX SFC PRESSURE FALLS OF 6-
MB/3HR NOTED OVER KS/OK. ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE...MRMS RADAR MOSAIC AND OBSERVATIONS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE ALL THE MEASURABLE PCPN REMAINING OVER NE/KS AS
OF THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS EVENING THROUGH 10PM...SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT A MAJORITY OF THE EVENING SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS MODEL
TIME SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS /E.G. 850MB/. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW E/W BAND OF PRECIPITATION
LIFTING NWD ACROSS AREA ALONG THE LEADING SURGE OF ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. HOWEVER...ANY PRECIP /LIKELY A RAIN/SNOW MIX/ WITHIN THIS
BAND SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIGHT...WITH ONLY MINOR SNOW ACCUMS.
TONIGHT AFTER 10 PM...IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. COMBINATION OF VERY
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...AND LOWER STATIC
STABILITY SHOULD YIELD ARE LARGE SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
TOWARDS 12Z TUE AS WELL DUE TO A PLUME OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO 100-200 J/KG OF MUCAPE. PORTIONS OF FAR
SOUTHERN IOWA WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS A PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG ADIABATIC
ASCENT...AND WET BULB EFFECTS IN THE PBL SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY
QUICK CHANGEOVER TO SNOW EXCEPT ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 409 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
PLENTY TO DISCUSS WITH ALL EYES STILL FOCUSED ON IMPENDING WINTER
STORM. LONG WAVE TROUGH IN QUESTION IS STILL ONLY MOVING THROUGH THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA BUT MID LEVEL FORCING EFFECTS ARE ALREADY
APPROACHING THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH MAINLY VIRGA FOR NOW. THIS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD INTO IA AT PERIOD ONSET AND MATURE COMBINING WITH
IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE NOW FORMING FROM KS INTO MO. THETA-E
ADVECTION...FRONTOGENETIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING ARE ALL VERY
STRONG AND IMPRESSIVELY PHASED EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT SOME
CONCERN IS THAT MUCH OF THIS LIFT IS BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE /DGZ/...WHICH IS NOT THAT DEEP ANYWAYS...AND MAY LEAD TO
LOWER RATIOS. HOWEVER CONVECTIVE SNOW IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH
UPRIGHT CONVECTION OVERWHELMING ANYTHING THAT MAY BE SLANTWISE/CSI
AS MOST MODELS ARE DEPICTING TOKEN MUCAPES. CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS ALL REFLECT THIS AS WELL WITH SHOWERY 40-50 DBZ ECHOES IN
SNOW. THUS 1-2 INCH/HOUR RATES ARE QUITE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHERN
INTO CENTRAL IA AROUND THE MORNING COMMUTE. EXAMINATION OF NAM
CONVECTIVE PRECIP FIELDS SUPPORTS THIS AS WELL...EVEN BRINGING
SPOTTY AMOUNTS TOWARD THE MN BORDER. HAVE EVEN ADDED FLAT OUR
THUNDERSTORM WORDING SE.
WELL ADVERTISED DRY SLOT HAS BECOME EVEN MORE PROMINENT THIS MORNING
AND LOOKS TO DIMINISH PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. THERE COULD VERY WELL BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TOO AS THE DRY SLOT...RAIN/SNOW LINE
LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. ADEQUATE LIFT MAY STILL PHASE WITH
A DECENT MOISTURE DEPTH...ALTHOUGH NOT DEEP AND COOL ENOUGH TO ADD
ICE INTRODUCTION. HOWEVER FARTHER NORTH THE DGZ DEEPENS SOMEWHAT AND
BETTER PHASES WITH THE MAX OMEGA AND SHOULD RESULT IN VERY HEAVY
SNOW ACROSS THE NW THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EVENING AS
THE DEFORMATION ZONE LINGERS AND PIVOTS OVER THESE LOCATIONS.
ALTHOUGH DIFFICULT TO INJECT INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT THE
OPERATIONAL NAM AND COMPANION NMM CORES DEVELOP WHAT LOOKS TO BE
CONVECTIVE PRECIP JUST NW OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK EARLY TUE
EVENING...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A HEAVY BURST OF UNDETERMINED WINTRY
PRECIP BEING RIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE PRECIP TYPE TRANSITION
LINE. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCH WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY INTO TUE.
TRUE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MAY BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL THROUGH THE EVENT
WITH 1/4SM VISIBILITIES AND 35 MPH GUSTS NOT COUPLED FOR EXTENDED
PERIODS AS ONE WIND SURGE MOVES THROUGH TUE...AND THEN SWINGS BACK
THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT. MOST MODELS DO NOT SHOW TOO DEEP OF MIXING
SO GENERALLY KEPT MAX WIND GUSTS 35-40 MPH. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS DO
INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING THAT...AND MAY OCCUR
LOCALLY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE TO INJECT INTO THE FORECAST ON
A WIDESPREAD BASIS AS OF YET.
WHAT THIS ALL AMOUNTS TO FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST IS LITTLE
CHANGE FOR SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNING WITH AMOUNTS
LOWERED SOMEWHAT IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING STRIPE...INCLUDING THE
DES MOINES METRO AREA. BLIZZARD WARNING 8-12...WINTER STORM WARNING
4-9...AND A TIER OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GENERALLY 2-4.
SOME MINOR BLOWING SNOW MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY AND INACTIVE WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. DRY NW FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
THE NEXT ITERATION OF WRN CONUS LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO END THE
WEEKEND. A SHORT WAVE DROPS THROUGH THU BUT IS MOISTURE
STARVED...AND THERE COULD BE SOME TOKEN LIGHT SNOW WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION SURGE MON BUT CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME. THE BIGGEST SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED
WILL LIKELY BE COLDER TEMPERATURES...WHICH ARE MAINLY JUST BEYOND
THE VALID PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...01/18Z
ISSUED AT 121 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
FOG CONTINUES TO LINGER AT KALO AND KOTM...BUT EXPECT VISIBILITY
TO IMPROVE BY 20-21Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR
ALL TERMINALS THOUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
MAJOR STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AIRFIELDS AFTER ABOUT 04Z
TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT SNOW TO
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO
IFR BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH VSBYS
AOB 1/2SM SHOULD IMPACT MOST AIRFIELD BETWEEN 12-18Z.
CORRESPONDING CIGS WILL RANGE FROM IFR TO LIFR. SNOWFALL RATES
WILL LIKELY APPROACH 1 INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES CHALLENGING
RUNWAY MAINTENANCE. COULD SEE MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT KOTM DUE
TO WARMER CONDITIONS NEAR THE SURFACE.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-AUDUBON-BOONE-CASS-DALLAS-GUTHRIE-MADISON-POLK.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR CLARKE-JASPER-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
CERRO GORDO-EMMET-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-
PALO ALTO-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-GRUNDY-HARDIN-MARSHALL-STORY.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CRAWFORD-GREENE-POCAHONTAS-SAC-WEBSTER.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FOWLE
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...FOWLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
510 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 510 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016
WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD WARNINGS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR
ANOTHER FEW HOURS BEFORE WINDS START TO SUBSIDE A BIT AND SNOW
COME TO AN END.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND TAKING A NEGATIVE TILT AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES. THE STRONG CIRCULATION IS
EVIDENT BASED ON VIS/IR SATELLITE DATA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. RADAR TRENDS SHOW A SMALL BAND OF
SNOWFALL CONTINUING TO BRING LIGHT SNOW FOR SOME PORTIONS OF EASTERN
COLORADO AND EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS...MAINLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...RADAR REFLECTIVITIES APPEAR TO BE TRENDING
DOWNWARD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
IN THE NEAR TERM UP TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE WINTER STORM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND NEW SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE TO LESSEN.
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON COULD REACH UP TO AN
INCH...BUT LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW COULD OCCUR ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER
UP TO 2 INCHES. RAP MODEL THETA LAPSE RATES/NEGATIVE EPV VALUES
INDICATE AN AREA OF MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH SOME FRONTOGENESIS PRESENT ALONG THE SAME
AXIS AS THE CURRENT RADAR TREND WITH THE SNOW BAND POSITIONED NEAR
THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. A SNOW BAND MOVING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80 ALONG HIGHWAY 283 COULD ALSO BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW UP TO AN
INCH FOR NORTON AND HILL CITY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE LOW
CENTER MOVES EAST ENOUGH TO END THE SNOW THREAT.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS IS THE
BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY THREAT. STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OF 16-18 MB HAS BROUGHT STRONG WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AT TIMES...AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES
NOT HAVE THIS GRADIENT LESSENING FOR THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT
MST (1 AM CST) TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES...DESPITE THERE BEING NO
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. UNLESS
ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY...TRAVEL IS NOT ADVISED.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD STABILIZE AFTER MIDNIGHT MST (1 AM
CST) TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY END THE BLOWING SNOW AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY THREAT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION FROM NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN BETWEEN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND THE MIDDLE TEENS. COLD TEMPERATURES IN
COMBINATION WITH WIND GUSTS WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 10 ABOVE
TO 10 BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016
STRONG UPPER LOW TRANSITIONS EAST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LARGE SCALE RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE
WESTERN US RESULTING IN A SHARP N-NW FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN MAY SUPPORT QUICK SHOTS OF
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. OVERALL CHANCES OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THESE PERIODS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH A
PREDOMINANTLY DRY FORECAST. THIS IS DUE TO EITHER DEEPER DRY AIR
MASS BETWEEN CLIPPERS OR LACK OF CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS.
TEMPERATURES ARE PARTICULARLY TRICKY AS THIS PATTERN WOULD NORMALLY
SUPPORT A TREND TOWARDS SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER WITH THE
ONGOING SNOW EVENT AND AT LEAST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA
RECEIVING 10" OR MORE OF SNOW HIGH TEMPERATURES IN PARTICULAR ARE
LIKELY GOING TO BE LOWER THAN MODELS INDICATE. I TRENDED ALL HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN AND UNDERCUT ALL GUIDANCE THROUGH THESE PERIODS.
SNOW WILL ALSO AID IN RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE NIGHT...AND
ASSUMING WINDS REMAIN LIGHT (TO PREVENT LOW LEVEL MIXING) MODELS MAY
HAVE A WARM BIAS ON LOWS.
REGARDING WIND CHILLS WED NIGHT/THU MORNING...THE AIR MASS AND
ORIENTATION OF THE WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT MIGHT ACTUALLY LEAD TO MORE
MIXING WHICH COULD OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF SNOW/CLEARING SKIES AND
RESULTING WIND CHILLS MAY NOT ACTUALLY REACH -15F (ADVISORY). IT IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR -10 TO -20F WIND CHILLS...BUT I THINK THIS
MAY BE A LOCALIZED THREAT. WITH ONGOING HAZARDS THERE ARE NO CURRENT
PLANS FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016
FOR KGLD AND KMCK...MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE
THROUGH 5Z OR SO AS OUR WINTER STORM CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST
BRINGING A SLOW DECREASE IN THE WINDS AND SLOWLY IMPROVING
VISIBILITIES. FROM 6Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD EXPECT WINDS
TO CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10KTS WITH ONLY SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
325 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 250 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
The incoming storm system is, more or less, evolving as advertised
this Monday afternoon. Surface cyclogenesis is ongoing while a broad
but so far loosely organized precipitation shield is overspreading
much of western Kansas, Colorado, and into Nebraska. In the local
area, light rain will be possible into early evening as these weak
impulses move across the region with areas of light precipitation.
This may mix with periods of snow mainly in/near Republic county but
accumulation should be pretty much 0 through 9 PM or so.
The main precipitation shield will move out of central Kansas and
across the local area between roughly 10 PM and 6 AM. Expect to see
embedded thunderstorms within this area of moderate rain, with an
isolated lightning strike or two not out of the question even within
the snow area. Instability is not particularly strong and the storms
will be mainly elevated, but with the very strong winds just above
the surface, there is a small chance for a few downdrafts to bring
some locally stronger winds down to the surface. Within the rain
area, expect generally from 0.50 to 1 inch of rain.
The snow forecast remains quite difficult even only a few hours in
advance of the storm. And really, the only reason it remains
difficult is because the rain/snow cutoff line continues to
fluctuate slightly regarding the location of what should be a very
sharp gradient in snow amounts. Additionally, warm ground
temperatures and even warm air temperatures during snowfall will
induce a bit of melting and compacting more than normal. At the same
time, when the snow does begin, the rates should be extremely heavy
with convective snowfall initially and transitioning to more of a
frontogenesis and dynamics-driven snowfall which should still see
moderate rates. Would not be surprised to see snowfall rates exceed
2" per hour for a couple of hours within the heavy snow area. Models
remain in fairly good agreement in terms of where the snow/rain
cutoff will be throughout the night, but still with enough of a N/S
variation to keep question marks in the snow total forecast. High-
Res guidance such as the HRRR and RAP seem to be initializing a bit
warm but still get cold enough in far northwest parts of the CWA
during the heavy precip period to support heavy snow accumulation.
Still looking for the winter-storm-type accumulation amounts near
and north of the Concordia to Washington line, with sharply lower
amounts south of that line.
There appears to be a high likelihood that the dry slot will
overspread the majority of the forecast area during the day on
Tuesday, although again with a rather sharp dry-to-snow cutoff in
the far northwest corner of the forecast area so some additional
snow will remain possible during the morning within the warned area.
Then during the afternoon or early evening, a vort max will wrap
around the main system and may support another quick shot of light
snow on the order of an inch or more, mainly in areas north of I-70.
Winds will continue to be an issue for any areas that experience
heavy snow as there will be some reduced visibility and drifting.
Should note though that the winds appear to have a lull on Tuesday
as the center of the surface low moves overhead.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
No major changes needed in the extended as upper wave pattern favors
a dry northwest flow with upper troughs passing to the northeast and
southwest of the CWA. Northwest winds are initially gusty behind the
departing wave Wednesday morning, before gradually diminishing to
around 10 mph at sunset. Cold air advecting from the snowpack in
Nebraska was shown in decent agreement with respect to temperatures
on Wednesday and Thursday with readings in the 30s and overnight
lows in the teens and 20s. Southerly winds return Thursday onward
with mostly sunny skies return and highs rebound to the upper 40s
through the weekend. Next cold front and potential system arrives by
Monday with much uncertainty in guidance on any available
moisture.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1144 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016
Very challenging 24 hour period for the 18z TAF forecast.
Generally, this afternoon should remain VFR with increasing
easterly winds beginning to gust into the 20kt range. Into the
overnight period expecting precip in the form of rain and even
some thunderstorms at the KTOP/KFOE terminals. As the storm system
approaches the terminals and begins to deepen more, winds will
continue to increase and gust up to the 30kt range. Beginning
around the 4z and up until the 13z time frame, expect to see
CIG/VIS reach into IFR categories. Not ruling out lower categories
at this time with heavier areas of rain. Lower confidence in that
at this time though, so have only decreased categories to IFR. By
morning though, it is reasonable to believe we improve back to VFR
quickly as the dry slot of air gets pulled into the region before
the winds shift again but likely after or near the very end of the
forecast period as the low center passes nearly right over the
terminals. Have not included a wind shift veering all the way to
the WNW as a result and winds could vary in speed a bit during the
early morning hours as the change takes place.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST
Tuesday for KSZ010-011-021-022-034.
Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to midnight CST
Tuesday night for KSZ008-009-020.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Drake
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
222 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
...updated discussion...
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
A few items of concern within the next 24 hours. 1) snow, 2) thunderstorms,
3) wind. An upper level low will swing on in from the southwest through
the overnight. Considerable upslope is expected on the north side of
the synoptic disturbance. This region is generally across northwest
and north-central Kansas. For snow amounts, have the highest snow amounts
from Scott City to WaKeeney. 6-8" will be possible in this area. The
ECMWF shows slightly higher amounts, however, the mesoscale models are
lower as a result of low to mid level dry air advecting in. To the south
and southeast, have a wide area of advisory amounts (2-5") from Johnson
to Jetmore to Ash Valley and points northwest. Focusing farther south,
a modified warm sector will spread northward on the south side of the
low. HRRR and to a lesser extent the NAM show some MUCAPE forming. Low
level clouds have hung around across the OK/TX panhandles, but there
is some clearing this early afternoon. Models show -28C 500-hPa temperatures,
so I do think some MUCAPE can be realized if clearing/warming continues.
Forecast soundings are very impressive in terms of wind shear and kinematics.
Soundings support low topped convection. The HRRR is also showing some
updraft helicity, so there was a very slight concern for a brief spin
up tornado. Elkhart looks the most interesting in terms of any "spring-
like" convection. MUCAPE is weak, so this would be the main limiting
factor. Some of the other models like the ARW show somewhat of a line
developing across the Panhandles, so this might miss us, but still reasonably
confident there will be at least some thunderstorms around far southwest
Kansas this evening. Lastly, this system is forecast to be closed off
as it ejects across western Kansas. 850-hPa winds of 30-40 kt will spell
out the concern for windy conditions tomorrow morning. This will create
wind chills in the 5 to 15F range. Beyond tomorrow, the synoptic low
moves off to the northeast and weak high pressure with some downslope
moves in. Temperatures will rebound through the end of the business
week with 40s returning, except lower temps over the snow pack. Another
low may approach the region next Saturday, however, the main dynamics
look to be too far away from southwest Kansas. There might be a cooling
trend next week as the longwave trough amplifies and caa could develop
across the Central Plains.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Tuesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016
Active aviation pd and generally not a good period for ga pilots. Have
added -tsra for KDDC this evening as the 500-hPa cold pool moves over.
Farther north, showers will eventually turn over to snow with KHYS seeing
the highest chance for blsn. Cigs will continue to deteriorate through
the day as the weather system moves through. Low stratus is likely in
its wake for the morning. Winds will pick up significantly too behind
the system - NW 20-35 kt.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 29 32 15 35 / 80 20 0 0
GCK 26 29 12 33 / 90 40 0 0
EHA 23 30 14 35 / 90 20 0 0
LBL 26 31 16 37 / 90 20 0 0
HYS 30 31 12 31 / 90 60 10 0
P28 35 39 19 38 / 60 20 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening to
6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Tuesday for KSZ046-061>065-074>077.
Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Tuesday
for KSZ030-031-043>045.
&&
$$
Discussion...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1154 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
CURRENTLY HAVE ONE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WITH ANOTHER MORE VIGOROUS PIECE OF ENERGY DIGGING OVER
NORTHERN/CENTRAL CA. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM
NORTHERN IL DOWN INTO NORTHEAST TX.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 917 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
THE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE PLAINS FOR MON
THRU TUE HAS FINALLY MOVED ON SHORE OF SRN CA. SO ITS FINALLY BEING
SAMPLED BETTER BY UPPER AIR NETWORK AND MODELS. WITH THAT
SAID...LATEST MODEL RUNS AND CURRENT FORECAST ARE ON TRACK. THIS
HAS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE GOING FORECAST...WITH JUST SOME
MINOR TIMING ISSUES. ONE OF THOSE TIMING ISSUES WILL BE THE
INITIAL ONSET OF WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES IN THE
MORNING HOURS ON MON. LATEST RAP HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRECIP
MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL MID MORNING MON FOR AREAS WEST OF I-135 AS
LOW LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO SATURATE. SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SOME TO
SLOW POPS UNTIL THE LATE MORNING HOURS. CERTAINLY THINK POPS ARE
LIKELY FOR CENTRAL KS FOR MON AFTERNOON. TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST
SNOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR MON EVENING
THRU TUE MORNING.
KETCHAM
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG OVER THE DESERT SW
TONIGHT AND WILL START TO MOVE OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
MON. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN CONSISTENT AS THEY HAVE OVER THE LAST
FEW DAYS WHICH DOES LEAD TO SOME CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY SNOW LOCATION
AND TIMING. THE 12Z RUN OF THE NAM HAS STARTED TO TREND SLIGHTLY
NORTH COMPARED TO IT`S PREVIOUS RUNS BUT IS STILL A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH AND COLDER THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
CURRENTLY EXPECTING PRECIP TO OVERSPREAD WESTERN KS MON...GETTING
INTO OUR CENTRAL KS COUNTIES MON AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILES WOULD
SUGGEST THAT TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW MON
AFTERNOON AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OFFSETS WET BULB
PROCESSES. MON NIGHT STILL LOOKS LIKE WHEN THE BULK OF SNOW WILL
IMPACT CENTRAL KS. CURRENTLY THINK THERE WILL BE AROUND A 12-15
HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW GENERALLY NW OF A KGBD-KSLN LINE WITH CROSS
SECTIONS SUGGESTING AROUND 4-5 HOURS WILL HAVE GOOD LIFT IN THE
DENDRITIC ZONE ALONG WITH SOME SLANTWISE INSTABILITY...RESULTING
IN AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR RATES. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS JUST TO OUR
NW WILL SEE A MUCH MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF GOOD SNOW GROWTH
PRODUCTION...RESULTING IN THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS WITH THIS
EVENT. THE BETTER FRONTOGENESIS IN A 600-700MB LAYER ALSO
CONTINUES TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. NORTH WINDS
CONTINUE TO LOOK STRONG MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH GUSTS IN THE 35
TO 40 MPH RANGE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW.
SO FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH SNOW TOTALS FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD WITH AROUND 9 INCHES OVER FAR NW RUSSELL
COUNTY TAPERING QUICKLY TO LESS THAN 2 INCHES SE OF A LINE FROM
LYONS TO SALINA. FOR NOW WILL UPGRADE THE CURRENT WATCH TO A
WARNING WHICH IS WHERE WE STILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN
AMOUNTS 6 INCHES OR GREATER. WHILE IT`S LIKELY THERE WILL BE AN
ADVISORY FOR A FEW COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE WARNING...WANT TO ALLOW
SOME LEEWAY FOR FUTURE SHIFTS TO ADD A COUNTY OR 2 TO THE WARNING
IF THIS STORM SYSTEM CHANGES ITS TRACK SLIGHTLY. BASICALLY WANT TO
AVOID FLIP FLOPPING HEADLINES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END TUE EVENING AS THE TROUGH QUICKLY DEPARTS
TO THE NORTHEAST. VERY COLD AIRMASS IS THEN FORECAST TO SPILL
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH HIGHS WED NOT EXPECTED TO GET MUCH ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WE THEN GET INTO NW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A SERIES OF FAST MOVING IMPULSES DIVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SO WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED IF FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW IS INSERTED WED OR THU NIGHT INTO FRI...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT.
LAWSON
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST TONIGHT AS
THE WEAK RIDGE MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
THE WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A SIGNIFICANT
STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MON. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PLAINS...EXPECT CEILINGS TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN HEIGHT FOR THE MORNING HOURS ON MON....WITH
SATURATION IN THE MID LAYERS INCREASING ENOUGH FOR A LIGHT RAIN
CHANCE BY AROUND 16Z/MON FOR THE KRSL AND KGBD TAF SITES. EXPECT A
LOWERING OF THE CEILINGS TO MVFR FOR BOTH KRSL AND KGBD AS
SATURATION CONTINUES TO INCREASE BY AROUND 21Z/MON.
WILL SEE THE DETERIORATING CELLING TREND CONTINUE INTO MON EVENING
WITH CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR FOR MOST LOCATIONS AFTER 00Z/TUE. SHOWERS
WILL BECOME PREVAILING AT MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
COULD EVEN SEE SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS SOUTHERN KS...SO WILL
INCLUDE A VCTS FOR THE KICT/KHUT AND KCNU TAFS. WILL ALSO INCLUDE
THE MENTION OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR KRSL AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO TURN
THE RAIN OVER TO SNOW.
KETCHAM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 33 51 32 36 / 10 30 80 40
HUTCHINSON 31 48 31 34 / 10 50 80 50
NEWTON 32 48 32 36 / 10 40 80 50
ELDORADO 33 51 34 40 / 10 30 80 30
WINFIELD-KWLD 32 54 37 41 / 10 20 70 20
RUSSELL 29 41 27 29 / 10 80 100 90
GREAT BEND 29 42 28 30 / 10 80 90 70
SALINA 31 44 30 32 / 10 60 90 70
MCPHERSON 31 47 31 34 / 10 50 80 60
COFFEYVILLE 34 57 43 51 / 10 10 70 20
CHANUTE 32 53 41 46 / 10 10 80 30
IOLA 32 52 40 45 / 10 10 80 40
PARSONS-KPPF 33 55 42 48 / 10 10 70 30
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
KSZ032-033-047.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
936 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
.DISCUSSION...
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG THE
VERY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER ACADIANA INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2-3 INCHES FROM ST. LANDRY...LAFAYETTE...AND
VERMILION PARISHES SO FAR...WITH ANOTHER 2-3 INCHES POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS. THE CURRENT TRENDS...AND 00Z NAM12 &
LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE CONTINUED SLOWING...ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THIS AREA SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER ACADIANA
THROUGH 4 AM. ADJUSTED POPS AND SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY IN
THE FORECAST.
DML
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 716 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/
DISCUSSION...
TOR WATCH #10 ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM...AS THREAT HAS SHIFTED TO
THE EAST. HOWEVER...FRONTAL PROGRESSION HAS SLOWED UP A BIT...WITH
THE SHRA/TSRA NOW SHOWING SOME TRAINING TENDENCIES OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO SC LA. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ONLY SHOWING ABOUT 1 INCH
WITH ISO AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES IN ST LANDRY PARISH SO FAR...BUT MAY
PICK UP ANOTHER ISOLATED 1-2 INCHES BEFORE ENDING FROM W TO EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS...ADJUSTED EVENING AND EARLY MORNING POPS A
BIT...BUT STILL EXPECTED TO SEE FASTER PROGRESSION AFTER MIDNIGHT
ONCE THE UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES FURTHER EAST WITH THE COLD SFC HIGH
BUILDING SE WITH CONTINUED COOLER AND DRIER AIR.
DML
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/
AVIATION...A COLD FRONT NOW APPROACHING ACADIANA WILL MAINTAIN A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KEEPING
TEMPO GROUPS FOR ARA AND LFT FOR IFR/MVFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM RAIN AND BR. PRECIP HAS ENDED AT
AEX...LCH AND BPT. CEILINGS GENERALLY WITHIN VFR AT THESE
TERMINALS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING...AND WILL
BE CLEARING ACADIANA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/
DISCUSSION...
LEADING EDGE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM/DRY LINE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
FROM JUST EAST OF ESLER FIELD TO CAMERON...AND MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW FOR ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IN ACADIANA...TO WORK WITH SOME DECENT INSTABILITY
(TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70F) TO BECOME
SURFACE BASED AND ON THE STRONG SIDE...ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE BECOMING
MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH HEIGHT OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LESSENING
THE SHEAR.
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WORK THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY GRADUALLY ENDING AS IT
PASSES. SECONDARY SURGE OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO MOVE DOWN ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST AREA. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...A LIGHT FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 CORRIDOR.
A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO FORM OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
ON LATE FRIDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE GULF DURING THE WEEKEND. STILL
A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS FOR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH TRENDS SEEM
TO BE ON THE DRIER SIDE AND IF THIS CONTINUES...MAY BE ABLE TO
TAKE OUT POPS ALTHOUGH AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND...WHICH
WOULD BE GOOD NEWS FOR MARDI GRAS ACTIVITIES. A COOL BUT DRY
FORECAST IS THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR BOTH LUNDI GRAS AND MARDI
GRAS.
RUA
MARINE...
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL THEN PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD AIR MASS
BEGINS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR DURING THIS TIME. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH
WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY.
RUA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 44 59 34 55 / 40 0 0 0
LCH 47 63 37 57 / 40 0 0 0
LFT 51 64 38 56 / 70 10 0 0
BPT 46 63 37 58 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ033-043>045-
052>055.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
803 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
.UPDATE...
AREA RADARS INDICATED MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND A FEW OCCASIONALLY
POTENT THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING ACROSS AREAS JUST WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TO THE FAR NORTHWEST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA IN EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA NORTHWEST OF BATON
ROUGE INTO FAR SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. PREVIOUS SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION IS STILL VALID WITH REGARDS TO TRENDS AND WEATHER
CONCERNS TONIGHT...SO THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO DELAY SLIGHTLY THE
ONSET OF HIGHER CHANCES/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE NEW
TORNADO WATCH 12 AREA WHICH EXTENDS NORTH FROM AREAS JUST NORTH OF
METRO BATON ROUGE AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN INTO MISSISSIPPI.
HOWEVER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK CANNOT BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE
INCLUDING BATON ROUGE THROUGH ABOUT 10 PM...AND SOUTHSHORE METRO
NEW ORLEANS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TO SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
THE LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND WRF/S
APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AND INDICATING A
BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING EAST NEAR I-55 AROUND
MIDNIGHT...NORTH AND SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN MIDNIGHT TO 3
AM...AND THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST 1 OR 2 AM TO ABOUT 5 AM. THE
MAIN FEATURES ARE SUPPORTING SOME SEVERE RISK INTO THE NIGHT ARE
THE STILL WARM AND HUMID SURFACE...LIMITED MARINE LAYER
STABILIZATION...STRONG SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...AND A SERIES OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL SPEED
MAXIMA THAT COULD STILL HELP TO ENERGIZE BOTH INDIVIDUAL AND LINES
OF THUNDERSTORMS. 22/TD
&&
.MARINE...
CONDITIONS RANGE FROM SOLID SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION /SCEC/ TO
BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ WITH 15 TO 20 KNOTS
SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EXTENDED SCEC THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT
ACROSS ALL WATERS...AND MARINERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT A LINE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. 22/TD
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....ORANGE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
MONITORING DENSE FOG TRENDS. SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/
SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
SUCCESSFUL BALLOON LAUNCH ON A GUSTY, MILD AND HUMID EVENING.
PRECIP FREE AT LEAST HELPED BALLOON REACH DESIRED ASCENSION RATE
DESPITE STRONG SSW-SW WINDS FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 41000 FT.
SLIGHT DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR IN PLACE FOR KLIX THROUGHOUT
THE SOUNDING. THE CONDITIONS WERE SIMILAR TO THE 18Z SOUNDING
REQUESTED BUT WERE MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE. 00Z LAUNCH HAD MOIST
LOW LEVELS WITH SEVERAL LAYERS OF CLOUD COVER IN THE AREA.
REFLECTED IN SOUNDING...1700 FT, 8500 FT AND 24800 FT. PRECIP
WATER 1.49 INCHES. LIFTED INDEX REPORTING -6. CAPE IS AT 856 J/KG
AND DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS REACHED 79F. HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY WITH THIS SETUP. EARLIER STORMS THAT DEVELOPED NEAR KLIX
AND MOVED NORTHWARD SHOWED ROTATION WHICH RESULTED IN A TORNADO
WATCH ISSUED BY SPC FOR THE KLIX FORECAST AREA.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/
SHORT TERM...SO FAR SO GOOD AS STORMS HAVE BEEN BEHAVING OVER OUR
CWA BUT A FEW STORMS HAVE LED TO DAMAGE IN EAST CENTRAL MS THIS
AFTERNOON FROM TORNADOES. TORNADO WATCH 10 REMAINS IN EFFECT TILL
7PM TONIGHT.
MAIN CONCERN IS THE SEVERE THREAT TODAY AND TONIGHT. CURRENT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WRN HALF OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO
THE NE. OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA FROM NOW THROUGH 03Z WILL BE
THE BEST ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE FOR THESE CELLS TO BECOME SEVERE AND
POSE A DECENT TORNADO RISK. BEST LL CONVERGENCE...HIGHEST
INSTABILITY...GOOD LL SHEAR...AND INCREASING LIFT ALOFT WILL LINE UP
DURING THIS TIME. AFTER THAT EXPECTED A LINE OF SHRA AND TSRA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA. BETTER
FORCING...DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND THE COLD FRONT COULD LEAD TO
SQUALLINE DEVELOPING WITH A FEW STORMS SEVERE MAINLY POSING A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ALSO CAN NOT RULE OUT QLCS TYPE TORNADIC
ACTIVITY WITH THIS LINE.
SOMETHING ELSE THAT HASNT REALLY BEEN TALKED MUCH ABOUT IS
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN. THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH WHICH IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED FROM WEST OF MCB TO NEAR LFT IS NOT MOVING AND STORMS
CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG THIS BNDRY. WITH AN ALREADY SATURATED
ENVIRONMENT THIS COULD EASILY DROP A FEW INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH THE
EVNG AND IF SITTING OVER THE RIGHT PLACES COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCAL
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.
TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THU BUT COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WED. /CAB/
LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST CONTINUES TO BE RATHER
DIFFICULT WITH VERY LOW CONFIDENCE. MDL CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY
LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED. THE ONLY THING THAT LOOKS LIKELY TO
OCCUR IS THAT TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MARDI
GRAS. AS FOR RAIN CHANCES LATEST THINKING IS THAT WE COULD REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY BUT WILL STILL HOLD ONTO SMALL RAIN CHANCES FOR SUN AS A
S/W-CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND COULD SQUEEZE OUT
SOME RAIN FOR SUNDAY. /CAB/
AVIATION...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT STRONG TO STORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT AND EXPECT PERIODS OF LIFR WITH HEAVY STORMS. WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT HAVE BEEN ELEVATED AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE. A WINDS
SHIFT OVERNIGHT TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA LATER ON THIS EVENING. THE CENTRAL PORTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
FOR THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST BY DAYBREAK. WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING
SHOULD BE ELEVATED FROM THE NORTHWEST. 13/MH
MARINE...FOG HAS BEEN AN ISSUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS
EAST OF THE MS RIVER AND EVEN THOUGH IT HAS IMPROVED SOME EXPECT SEA
FOG TO SET BACK IN FOR A SHORT TIME THIS EVNG IN THOSE SAME PLACES.
ONCE MORE RAIN AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES FOG SHOULD IMPROVE. GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT REMAINS TIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR WINDS OF 15
TO 20 KTS BUT SHOULD RELAX SOME AS WE APPROACH MIDNIGHT. BY WED
MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS BUT WINDS WILL
NOT QUITE RESPOND UNTIL MUCH DRIER AIR AND CAA TAKES PLACE WED
NIGHT. AS A RESULT...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BEGINNING WED EVNG AND PERSISTING THROUGH FRI
MORNING. /CAB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 51 62 37 53 / 100 10 10 0
BTR 52 64 39 55 / 90 10 10 0
ASD 57 64 42 56 / 90 20 10 0
MSY 57 64 45 55 / 90 20 10 0
GPT 59 64 43 56 / 100 30 10 0
PQL 60 65 44 56 / 100 40 10 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ532.
MS...NONE.
GM...&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CARIBOU ME
910 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE TODAY WILL A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 900 AM: DROPPED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AS THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS HAVE LEFT THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES ARE
NOW ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS ALL AREAS...WITH SOLAR INSOLATION
WARMING UP THE ROAD SURFACES. BESIDES THIS TWEAKED POP GRIDS OFF
LATEST HRRR AND NAM FOR POTENTIAL OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MID-DAY
WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED TODAY.
UPDATE 5:30 AM: HAVE ADDED FREEZING RAIN ADVIORY FOR NORTH. ALSO
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE.
LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY PASSING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE
THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN
EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
MORNING FOLLOW BY CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. A
COLDER AIR MASS IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THINGS LOOK ON TRACK FOR A WINTER MIX GOING TO RAIN WITH SOME WIND
ON WEDNESDAY.
FIRST THINGS FIRST. 1032MB HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON TUESDAY AND THEN SLIDE TO THE E ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED W/THIS HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
REGION IN TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY BUT MUCH COLDER THAN THE LAST 4-5 DAYS. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BE ABOVE NORMAL W/READINGS IN THE 20S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE REGION TO LOWER 30S CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE CLEAR SKIES FOR THE 1ST 1/2
OF THE NIGHT W/LIGHT WINDS. A DECENT INVERSION LOOKS TO SET UP AND
W/THE COLD AIR DOWN IN THE LLVLS, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. LIKE THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF SINGLE
NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST W/THE POTENTIAL FOR BELOW ZERO
READINGS ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST WILL
SEE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. THE OVERNIGHT
LOWS LOOK TO BE HIT EARLY AND THEN GRADUALLY BY EARLY MORNINGWEDNESDAY
DUE TO THICKENING CLOUDS AND SE WINDS PICKING UP.
NOW COMES THE INTERESTING PART. STRONG LOW PRES WHICH DELIVERED A
GOOD DOSE OF SNOW TO THE PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES IS
FORECAST TO LIFT INTO WESTERN ONTARIO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRES SLIDES TO THE E W/A SE FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE. IT
LOOKS LIKE SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS FAR W AND SW AREAS AND THEN
SPREAD E BY 7-8AM. SNOW WILL BE SEEN AS FAR S AS THE COAST
INITIALLY, BUT AS THE WARMER AIR WORKS ONTO THE COAST AND DOWNEAST
REGION, A CHANGEOVER TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IS
EXPECTED BEFORE GOING TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING.
FURTHER N, IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW THROUGH ABOUT 12PM OR SO AND THEN A
CHANGE TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE
ST. JOHN VALLEY, SNOW WILL HANG A BIT LONGER BEFORE GOING OVER TO
FREEZING PRECIP LEADING TO HIGHER SNOW TOTALS. CONFIDENCE IS
BUILDING THAT A MEASURABLE SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE W/THE EVENT. ATTM,
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FROM CARIBOU AND PRESQUE
ISLE NORTHWARD, FURTHER S TOWARD HOULTON AND MILLINOCKET, 1-3
INCHES W/AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. GIVEN
THE POSITION OF THE HIGH AND THE LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
NORTHERN QUEBEC, THE FREEZING PRECIP SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED
W/ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN 0.10". THIS MATCHES WELL W/A LOCAL STUDY
SHOWING WARMER AIR TO TAKE HOLD QUICKLY AS WINDS TURN TO THE S.
SO, WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED. SINCE, THE EVENT IS
PRIMARILY IN THE 3RD PERIOD, WILL BEEF UP WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN AND WIND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS TAKE OVER AND STRONG PRES GRADIENT IS IN PLACE.
ONCE AGAIN, FAR NORTHERN AREAS UP NEAR THE CANADIAN-MAINE BORDER
WILL SEE FREEZING PRECIP HANG ON A BIT LONGER INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. ONE THING TO NOTE HERE IS RAIN HITTING THE COLDER ROAD
SURFACES COULD LEAD TO SOME ICING DESPITE THE AIR TEMPERATURES
WARMING INITIALLY. ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE RAIN BY MID EVENING
W/TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL INTO THE 30S AND 40S. AS A MATTER OF
FACT, THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE OCCUR BY MIDNIGHT BEFORE
DROPPING BACK AS THE COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH ON THURSDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE AT THEIR HIGHEST DURING THE EVENING
W/THE STRONGEST SPEEDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COASTAL
REGION. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN BACKING OFF THE STRONG LLVL JET
W/THE LATEST PROJECTIONS SHOWING 50-55 KT FROM 900-850MBS. A NICE
ALIGNMENT IS SHOWN TO SETUP ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND EASTERN MAINE.
CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING THAT THERE COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO
HIT NEAR 50 MPH W/THE STRONGER WINDS CAN GET MIXED DOWN. RAINFALL
APPEARS TO BE IN 2 AREAS W/ONE AREA MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
AND THEN OTHER HEAVIER BATCH ACROSS DOWNEAST AND ALONG THE COAST.
ATTM, STORM TOTAL QPF OF 0.50 TO 1.00" POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE ON THE
QPF ATTM IS STILL LOW AS ANY SHIFT COULD AFFECT THE AMOUNTS.
THE COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN ACROSS THE REGION BY THURSDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL INTO THE 30S WITH SOME CONTINUED
MELTING.
ANOTHER THING TO MENTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ICE BREAK UP
ON THE RIVERS DUE TO THE MELTING AND ADDED RUNOFF. SOME RISES ARE
EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE MONITORED AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE EVENT.
NW FLOW AND COLDER FRONT CROSSING THE REGION ON THURSDAY W/SOME
SNOW SHOWERS AROUND MAINLY N AND W. A NW BREEZE HANGS ON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT W/A COLD NIGHT EXPECTED. CLOUDS WILL HANG ON FOR A
TIME ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER W/TEH FLOW COMING OFF THE ST.
LAWRENCE. FURTHER S, SKIES SHOULD CLEAR. THE WIND WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND LOWER TEENS NORTH AND
WEST W/MID AND UPPER TEENS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. REMAINING COLDER
ON FRIDAY W/HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER NEXT WEEKEND
W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING FOLLOW BY VFR
CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: VFR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS. MVFR
TO IFR FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. SNOW GOING TO
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND THEN RAIN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
LEAD TO SOME ICING CONCERNS. STRONG S WINDS WILL LEAD TO LLWS.
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED ON THURSDAY FOR KBGR AND KBHB TO MVFR WHILE
NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL SEE MVFR W/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE IN A FETCH ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINATE WAVE SYSTEM (8-9 FEET/9 SECONDS)
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME OFF-SHORE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM TONIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE SOUTHERLY WAVE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MAINE
ACCOMPANIED BY THE SECONDARY OFF-SHORE WIND WAVE. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL.
SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS EARLY TUESDAY WILL DROP OFF BY MIDDAY.
A RETURN TO SCA COMES ON WEDNESDAY W/POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE
WINDS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG LLVL JET MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS. S WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 25-35 KTS W/GUSTS
APPROACHING 40 KTS FOR THE OUTER ZONES. THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
NW BY THURSDAY W/15-20 KTS POSSIBLE. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY TO 9 TO 14 FEET. A SURGE IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT
ATTM THIS TIME, NO COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED AS WE CLOSE INTO THE EVENT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE/DUMONT
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/DUMONT/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/DUMONT/HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1238 PM EST MON FEB 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS. A POTENT LOOKING SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS SRN
CA/SRN NV INTO AZ. THIS WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE E THEN NE...BRINGING
A WINTER STORM TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUE AFTN THRU WED MORNING.
IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER LAKES ARE CURRENTLY UNDER BENIGN
CONFLUENT WESTERLY FLOW BTWN A TROF OVER CANADA ANCHORED BY MID
LEVEL LOW IN THE VCNTY OF HUDSON BAY AND SRN STREAM RIDGING OVER THE
SE STATES. WEAK SHORTWAVE AND A SFC TROF DROPPING S ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO NRN UPPER MI HAS GENERATED SOME -SN OVERNIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NRN FCST AREA.
THE TODAY/TONIGHT PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE QUIET. 850MB TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY FALL TO MARGINAL LEVELS FOR LES OVER MAINLY CNTRL AND ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH SFC TROF THAT IS AIDING THE ONGOING PATCHY -SN
MOVING S AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING...THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH TO
GENERATE -SHSN GIVEN THE MARGINAL AT BEST OVERWATER INSTABILITY. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A LITTLE -FZDZ COULD OCCUR
WITH MOISTURE DEPTH AT TIMES NOT REACHING THE -10C ISOTHERM...BUT
NOT SO SURE THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT NEAR SATURATION AT THE LOWEST
LEVELS TO SUPPORT -FZDZ AS FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECREASE IN RH BLO
1KFT. AT THIS POINT...AFTER SOME CHC POPS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY
THIS MORNING...WILL HAVE NOTHING MORE THAN SCHC POPS FOR -SHSN THRU
THE AFTN. WINDS TEND TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT...EXCEPT OVER THE
KEWEENAW. SO...OTHER THAN THE KEWEENAW...WILL GRADUALLY DROP SCHC
POPS TONIGHT. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TODAY MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LWR
30S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. HOWEVER...
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT CLOUDS COULD CLEAR OUT FOR A WHILE IN
THE INTERIOR AS BIAS CORRECTED CANADIAN MODELS SHOW MINS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR W HALF.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 746 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016
GENERAL SYNOPTIC...PHASING OF UPPER WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN ROBUST SYSTEM APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION RIGHT
NOW. EXPECT THE RESULT TO BE A MID 990S MB SFC LOW TO MOVE FROM NRN
IL AT 00Z WED TO NRN OR AT LEAST CENTRAL LOWER MI BY 12Z WED.
ALOFT...A CLOSED LOW WILL TRANSITION TO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT
ACCOMPANIES THE SFC LOW THROUGH THE REGION.
UNCERTAINTY...SIMILAR MODEL VARIABILITY TO WHAT WE WERE LOOKING AT
24 HOURS AGO...RELATIVELY SMALL DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AND TIMING
BETWEEN THE BULK OF GUIDANCE. THE MOST NOTABLE VARIANCE FROM THE
CONSENSUS IS THE NAM WHICH IS WEAKER AND FASTER WITH THE
SYSTEM...RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT LOWER SNOW TOTALS...ESPECIALLY OVER
NWRN UPPER MI. HOWEVER...THE NAM HAS BEEN STEADILY TRENDING TOWARD
THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND CONTINUES TO DO SO WITH THE 06Z/01 RUN.
OTHERWISE...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SHOWN A VERY SIMILAR TRACK FOR
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH HOW FAST THIS SYSTEM
IS MOVING...THE CYCLONE DOES NOT REACH MATURE STAGE UNTIL IT KICKS
OUT E OF THE ROCKIES WED NIGHT...SO MODEL GUIDANCE WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE UNTIL THEN. THAT BEING
SAID...PRETTY CONFIDENT IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REACHING WARNING
CRITERIA IN AREAS WHERE WATCHES WERE ISSUED TODAY. SREF MEAN AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO BACK THIS UP WITH GOOD CLUSTERING AND NO
MEMBERS THAT HAVE DRAMATICALLY LOW TOTALS.
SNOW AMOUNTS AND TIMING...EXPECT ALL PRECIP TO BE SNOW...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A COUPLE OF HOURS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
NEAR LAKE MI AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES THROUGH...BUT THAT WOULD BE
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE SNOW FALLS SO ACCUMULATION ON ROADS WOULD NOT
BE AN ISSUE. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SNOW MOVES INTO THE MENOMINEE
AREA AROUND 18Z TUE AND MOVE N TO TO THE IRONWOOD-BARAGA-MARQUETTE-
NEWBERRY AREA BY SHORTLY AFTER 21Z...THEN COVERING THE REST OF THE
AREA BEFORE 00Z WED. SNOW WILL QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY AFTER IT
INITIATES...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND MOST OF THE SNOW FALLING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT-1AM TUE NIGHT IN MOST PLACES...HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL
LASTING LONGER NEAR CENTRAL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. IN GENERAL HAVE 6-10
INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND E (UPGRADED THOSE AREAS TO WARNING) AND
UP TO 6 INCHES OVER THE W (ADVISORY). WITH MODELS COMING INTO BETTER
ALIGNMENT...POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS (POSSIBLY MUCH HIGH) ARE
GOING TO HAVE TO BE FINE TUNED. FOR EXAMPLE THE LATE NAM-DNG RUN
PAINTS SIGNIFICANT HIGHER SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NCENTRAL. THAT IS VERY TRACK DEPENDENT...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE.
SEE THE WSW FOR MORE DETAILS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND OTHER
ASSOCIATED HAZARDS (BLOWING SNOW).
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EST MON FEB 1 2016
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER PENINSULA
THROUGH TONIGHT ALLOWING MVFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY
PRECIPIATION THAT OCCURS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT IN THE FORM OF
FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGH
THE DAY. VISIBILITY SHOULD NOT BE RESTRICTED DUE TO THE LIGHT
PRECIP. THERE MAY BE A BREIF PERIOD WHERE CEILINGS RISE TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED AS MVFR CEILINGS
WILL QUICKLY RETURN. THE NEXT PERIOD OF LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
WILL SLIDE IN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON JUST AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016
THE TUE NIGHT/WED TIME FRAME WILL BE THE MAIN PERIOD OF INTEREST FOR
STRONG WINDS ON LAKE SUPERIOR THIS WEEK AS LOW PRES TRACKS FROM THE
SRN PLAINS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LWR MI. LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL
GENERATE A PERIOD OF NE TO N GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS LATE TUE NIGHT
THRU EARLY WED AFTN OVER ALL BUT FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ004>007-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ TUESDAY TO 7 AM
EST /6 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ001>003-009-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ013-014.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ012.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ010-011.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
747 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS. A POTENT LOOKING SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS SRN
CA/SRN NV INTO AZ. THIS WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE E THEN NE...BRINGING
A WINTER STORM TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUE AFTN THRU WED MORNING.
IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER LAKES ARE CURRENTLY UNDER BENIGN
CONFLUENT WESTERLY FLOW BTWN A TROF OVER CANADA ANCHORED BY MID
LEVEL LOW IN THE VCNTY OF HUDSON BAY AND SRN STREAM RIDGING OVER THE
SE STATES. WEAK SHORTWAVE AND A SFC TROF DROPPING S ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO NRN UPPER MI HAS GENERATED SOME -SN OVERNIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NRN FCST AREA.
THE TODAY/TONIGHT PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE QUIET. 850MB TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY FALL TO MARGINAL LEVELS FOR LES OVER MAINLY CNTRL AND ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH SFC TROF THAT IS AIDING THE ONGOING PATCHY -SN
MOVING S AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING...THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH TO
GENERATE -SHSN GIVEN THE MARGINAL AT BEST OVERWATER INSTABILITY. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A LITTLE -FZDZ COULD OCCUR
WITH MOISTURE DEPTH AT TIMES NOT REACHING THE -10C ISOTHERM...BUT
NOT SO SURE THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT NEAR SATURATION AT THE LOWEST
LEVELS TO SUPPORT -FZDZ AS FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECREASE IN RH BLO
1KFT. AT THIS POINT...AFTER SOME CHC POPS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY
THIS MORNING...WILL HAVE NOTHING MORE THAN SCHC POPS FOR -SHSN THRU
THE AFTN. WINDS TEND TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT...EXCEPT OVER THE
KEWEENAW. SO...OTHER THAN THE KEWEENAW...WILL GRADUALLY DROP SCHC
POPS TONIGHT. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TODAY MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LWR
30S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. HOWEVER...
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT CLOUDS COULD CLEAR OUT FOR A WHILE IN
THE INTERIOR AS BIAS CORRECTED CANADIAN MODELS SHOW MINS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR W HALF.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 746 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016
GENERAL SYNOPTIC...PHASING OF UPPER WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN ROBUST SYSTEM APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION RIGHT
NOW. EXPECT THE RESULT TO BE A MID 990S MB SFC LOW TO MOVE FROM NRN
IL AT 00Z WED TO NRN OR AT LEAST CENTRAL LOWER MI BY 12Z WED.
ALOFT...A CLOSED LOW WILL TRANSITION TO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT
ACCOMPANIES THE SFC LOW THROUGH THE REGION.
UNCERTAINTY...SIMILAR MODEL VARIABILITY TO WHAT WE WERE LOOKING AT
24 HOURS AGO...RELATIVELY SMALL DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AND TIMING
BETWEEN THE BULK OF GUIDANCE. THE MOST NOTABLE VARIANCE FROM THE
CONSENSUS IS THE NAM WHICH IS WEAKER AND FASTER WITH THE
SYSTEM...RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT LOWER SNOW TOTALS...ESPECIALLY OVER
NWRN UPPER MI. HOWEVER...THE NAM HAS BEEN STEADILY TRENDING TOWARD
THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND CONTINUES TO DO SO WITH THE 06Z/01 RUN.
OTHERWISE...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SHOWN A VERY SIMILAR TRACK FOR
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH HOW FAST THIS SYSTEM
IS MOVING...THE CYCLONE DOES NOT REACH MATURE STAGE UNTIL IT KICKS
OUT E OF THE ROCKIES WED NIGHT...SO MODEL GUIDANCE WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE UNTIL THEN. THAT BEING
SAID...PRETTY CONFIDENT IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REACHING WARNING
CRITERIA IN AREAS WHERE WATCHES WERE ISSUED TODAY. SREF MEAN AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO BACK THIS UP WITH GOOD CLUSTERING AND NO
MEMBERS THAT HAVE DRAMATICALLY LOW TOTALS.
SNOW AMOUNTS AND TIMING...EXPECT ALL PRECIP TO BE SNOW...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A COUPLE OF HOURS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
NEAR LAKE MI AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES THROUGH...BUT THAT WOULD BE
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE SNOW FALLS SO ACCUMULATION ON ROADS WOULD NOT
BE AN ISSUE. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SNOW MOVES INTO THE MENOMINEE
AREA AROUND 18Z TUE AND MOVE N TO TO THE IRONWOOD-BARAGA-MARQUETTE-
NEWBERRY AREA BY SHORTLY AFTER 21Z...THEN COVERING THE REST OF THE
AREA BEFORE 00Z WED. SNOW WILL QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY AFTER IT
INITIATES...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND MOST OF THE SNOW FALLING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT-1AM TUE NIGHT IN MOST PLACES...HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL
LASTING LONGER NEAR CENTRAL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. IN GENERAL HAVE 6-10
INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND E (UPGRADED THOSE AREAS TO WARNING) AND
UP TO 6 INCHES OVER THE W (ADVISORY). WITH MODELS COMING INTO BETTER
ALIGNMENT...POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS (POSSIBLY MUCH HIGH) ARE
GOING TO HAVE TO BE FINE TUNED. FOR EXAMPLE THE LATE NAM-DNG RUN
PAINTS SIGNIFICANT HIGHER SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NCENTRAL. THAT IS VERY TRACK DEPENDENT...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE.
SEE THE WSW FOR MORE DETAILS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND OTHER
ASSOCIATED HAZARDS (BLOWING SNOW).
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016
IN THE WAKE OF A LOW PRES TROUGH THAT HAS DROPPED INTO UPPER MI...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AIDED BY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD LEAD TO
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THE FCST PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME FLURRIES OR EVEN -FZDZ...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW THIS
MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016
THE TUE NIGHT/WED TIME FRAME WILL BE THE MAIN PERIOD OF INTEREST FOR
STRONG WINDS ON LAKE SUPERIOR THIS WEEK AS LOW PRES TRACKS FROM THE
SRN PLAINS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LWR MI. LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL
GENERATE A PERIOD OF NE TO N GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS LATE TUE NIGHT
THRU EARLY WED AFTN OVER ALL BUT FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ004>007-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ TUESDAY TO 7 AM
EST /6 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ001>003-009-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ013-014.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ012.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ010-011.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
654 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS. A POTENT LOOKING SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS SRN
CA/SRN NV INTO AZ. THIS WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE E THEN NE...BRINGING
A WINTER STORM TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUE AFTN THRU WED MORNING.
IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER LAKES ARE CURRENTLY UNDER BENIGN
CONFLUENT WESTERLY FLOW BTWN A TROF OVER CANADA ANCHORED BY MID
LEVEL LOW IN THE VCNTY OF HUDSON BAY AND SRN STREAM RIDGING OVER THE
SE STATES. WEAK SHORTWAVE AND A SFC TROF DROPPING S ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO NRN UPPER MI HAS GENERATED SOME -SN OVERNIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NRN FCST AREA.
THE TODAY/TONIGHT PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE QUIET. 850MB TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY FALL TO MARGINAL LEVELS FOR LES OVER MAINLY CNTRL AND ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH SFC TROF THAT IS AIDING THE ONGOING PATCHY -SN
MOVING S AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING...THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH TO
GENERATE -SHSN GIVEN THE MARGINAL AT BEST OVERWATER INSTABILITY. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A LITTLE -FZDZ COULD OCCUR
WITH MOISTURE DEPTH AT TIMES NOT REACHING THE -10C ISOTHERM...BUT
NOT SO SURE THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT NEAR SATURATION AT THE LOWEST
LEVELS TO SUPPORT -FZDZ AS FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECREASE IN RH BLO
1KFT. AT THIS POINT...AFTER SOME CHC POPS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY
THIS MORNING...WILL HAVE NOTHING MORE THAN SCHC POPS FOR -SHSN THRU
THE AFTN. WINDS TEND TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT...EXCEPT OVER THE
KEWEENAW. SO...OTHER THAN THE KEWEENAW...WILL GRADUALLY DROP SCHC
POPS TONIGHT. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TODAY MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LWR
30S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. HOWEVER...
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT CLOUDS COULD CLEAR OUT FOR A WHILE IN
THE INTERIOR AS BIAS CORRECTED CANADIAN MODELS SHOW MINS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR W HALF.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST INTO CNTRL CONUS WILL
GIVE WAY TO RIDGING OVER WRN NOAM RESULTING IN NW FLOW INTO THE NRN
LAKES AND INTRUSIONS OF ARCTIC AIR INTO OR JUST TO THE NE OF THE
REGION. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE WINTER STORM MOVING OUT
OF THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUE INTO WED.
MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH SFC RIDGING
FROM SASK/MANITOBA THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. WNW 925-850 MB FLOW WITH
850 MB TEMPS AROUND -11C WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT LES.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS WERE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE WINTER STORM EMERGING FROM THE
PLAINS WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCSTS. ALTHOUGH THE GFS
REMAINED A BIT FARTHER N WITH THE PATH...OVERALL DIFFERENCES
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF/GEM OR DEPARTURE FROM GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS
RELATIVELY MINOR. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER
WITH THE SYSTEM.
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE PLAINS STRONG 700-300 MB
QVECTOR CONV AND 290K-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
HEAVY SNOW...ESPECIALLY FROM 21Z/02-06Z/03. QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 0.4
TO 0.7 INCH RANGE ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND 3 G/KG AVAILABLE. EVEN WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT ABOVE THE
DGZ...SLR VALUES IN THE 15/1-20/1 RANGE ARE EXPECTED LEADING TO 12-
18 HOUR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE CNTRL
CWA...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER THE S AND E. SINCE THE WRN CWA
FROM IWD TO CMX WILL BE ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE LARGE SYNOPTIC PCPN
AREA...CONFIDENCE IN REACHING WARNING AMOUNTS WAS LOWER.
ACCORDINGLY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVER THE WEST IS
ALSO LOWER...ESPECIALLY DURING THE PORTION OF THE EVENT WITH NE LOW
LEVEL FLOW. SO...THE WINTER STORM WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR BARAGA/IRON
COUNTIES EASTWARD. LAKE AND UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCEMENT WILL BE LIKELY
INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -10C BY 06Z/WED
WITH INCREASING NNE WINDS. SNOW TOTALS MAY EXCEED 12 INCHES IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF MARQUETTE. THE HEAVIER SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END
OVER THE SOUTH BY 12Z AND IN THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON AS THE SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE/LIFT DEPART BUT WITH THE WINDS...DRIVING WILL STILL BE
DIFFICULT.
ALTHOUGH THE FCST WINDS ARE NOT EXTREMELY STRONG AND SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN PRREVIOUS FCSTS...CONSIDERABLE BLSN IS EXPECTED NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR AND S CNTRL FROM ESC-MNM.
THU-SUN...A FEW CLIPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES THAT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE CWA.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/POSITION OF THESE FEATURES AND
IMPACT ON LES. COLD ENOUGH AIR WILL PREVAIL FOR PERIODS OF LES FOR
MAINLY NW FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE GFS WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
BRINING COLD AIR INTO THE NRN LAKES BY NEXT WEEKEND COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016
IN THE WAKE OF A LOW PRES TROUGH THAT HAS DROPPED INTO UPPER MI...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AIDED BY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD LEAD TO
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THE FCST PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME FLURRIES OR EVEN -FZDZ...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW THIS
MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016
THE TUE NIGHT/WED TIME FRAME WILL BE THE MAIN PERIOD OF INTEREST FOR
STRONG WINDS ON LAKE SUPERIOR THIS WEEK AS LOW PRES TRACKS FROM THE
SRN PLAINS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LWR MI. LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL
GENERATE A PERIOD OF NE TO N GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS LATE TUE NIGHT
THRU EARLY WED AFTN OVER ALL BUT FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ004>007-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ TUESDAY TO 7 AM
EST /6 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ001>003-009-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ013-014.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ012.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ010-011.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
507 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS. A POTENT LOOKING SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS SRN
CA/SRN NV INTO AZ. THIS WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE E THEN NE...BRINGING
A WINTER STORM TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUE AFTN THRU WED MORNING.
IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER LAKES ARE CURRENTLY UNDER BENIGN
CONFLUENT WESTERLY FLOW BTWN A TROF OVER CANADA ANCHORED BY MID
LEVEL LOW IN THE VCNTY OF HUDSON BAY AND SRN STREAM RIDGING OVER THE
SE STATES. WEAK SHORTWAVE AND A SFC TROF DROPPING S ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO NRN UPPER MI HAS GENERATED SOME -SN OVERNIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NRN FCST AREA.
THE TODAY/TONIGHT PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE QUIET. 850MB TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY FALL TO MARGINAL LEVELS FOR LES OVER MAINLY CNTRL AND ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH SFC TROF THAT IS AIDING THE ONGOING PATCHY -SN
MOVING S AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING...THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH TO
GENERATE -SHSN GIVEN THE MARGINAL AT BEST OVERWATER INSTABILITY. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A LITTLE -FZDZ COULD OCCUR
WITH MOISTURE DEPTH AT TIMES NOT REACHING THE -10C ISOTHERM...BUT
NOT SO SURE THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT NEAR SATURATION AT THE LOWEST
LEVELS TO SUPPORT -FZDZ AS FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECREASE IN RH BLO
1KFT. AT THIS POINT...AFTER SOME CHC POPS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY
THIS MORNING...WILL HAVE NOTHING MORE THAN SCHC POPS FOR -SHSN THRU
THE AFTN. WINDS TEND TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT...EXCEPT OVER THE
KEWEENAW. SO...OTHER THAN THE KEWEENAW...WILL GRADUALLY DROP SCHC
POPS TONIGHT. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TODAY MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LWR
30S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. HOWEVER...
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT CLOUDS COULD CLEAR OUT FOR A WHILE IN
THE INTERIOR AS BIAS CORRECTED CANADIAN MODELS SHOW MINS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR W HALF.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST INTO CNTRL CONUS WILL
GIVE WAY TO RIDGING OVER WRN NOAM RESULTING IN NW FLOW INTO THE NRN
LAKES AND INTRUSIONS OF ARCTIC AIR INTO OR JUST TO THE NE OF THE
REGION. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE WINTER STORM MOVING OUT
OF THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUE INTO WED.
MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH SFC RIDGING
FROM SASK/MANITOBA THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. WNW 925-850 MB FLOW WITH
850 MB TEMPS AROUND -11C WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT LES.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS WERE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE WINTER STORM EMERGING FROM THE
PLAINS WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCSTS. ALTHOUGH THE GFS
REMAINED A BIT FARTHER N WITH THE PATH...OVERALL DIFFERENCES
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF/GEM OR DEPARTURE FROM GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS
RELATIVELY MINOR. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER
WITH THE SYSTEM.
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE PLAINS STRONG 700-300 MB
QVECTOR CONV AND 290K-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
HEAVY SNOW...ESPECIALLY FROM 21Z/02-06Z/03. QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 0.4
TO 0.7 INCH RANGE ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND 3 G/KG AVAILABLE. EVEN WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT ABOVE THE
DGZ...SLR VALUES IN THE 15/1-20/1 RANGE ARE EXPECTED LEADING TO 12-
18 HOUR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE CNTRL
CWA...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER THE S AND E. SINCE THE WRN CWA
FROM IWD TO CMX WILL BE ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE LARGE SYNOPTIC PCPN
AREA...CONFIDENCE IN REACHING WARNING AMOUNTS WAS LOWER.
ACCORDINGLY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVER THE WEST IS
ALSO LOWER...ESPECIALLY DURING THE PORTION OF THE EVENT WITH NE LOW
LEVEL FLOW. SO...THE WINTER STORM WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR BARAGA/IRON
COUNTIES EASTWARD. LAKE AND UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCEMENT WILL BE LIKELY
INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -10C BY 06Z/WED
WITH INCREASING NNE WINDS. SNOW TOTALS MAY EXCEED 12 INCHES IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF MARQUETTE. THE HEAVIER SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END
OVER THE SOUTH BY 12Z AND IN THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON AS THE SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE/LIFT DEPART BUT WITH THE WINDS...DRIVING WILL STILL BE
DIFFICULT.
ALTHOUGH THE FCST WINDS ARE NOT EXTREMELY STRONG AND SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN PRREVIOUS FCSTS...CONSIDERABLE BLSN IS EXPECTED NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR AND S CNTRL FROM ESC-MNM.
THU-SUN...A FEW CLIPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES THAT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE CWA.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/POSITION OF THESE FEATURES AND
IMPACT ON LES. COLD ENOUGH AIR WILL PREVAIL FOR PERIODS OF LES FOR
MAINLY NW FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE GFS WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
BRINING COLD AIR INTO THE NRN LAKES BY NEXT WEEKEND COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016
AT CMX...EXPECT MVFR DECK 010-020 TO REMAIN OVERHEAD IN SOME SHAPE
OR FORM THOUGH TODAY WITH NW WINDS AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AS
TROUGH SLIDES OVER NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN. SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SHOWERS BUT VSBY SHOULD BE MVFR FOR THE MOST PART.
AT IWD AND SAW...CONDITIONS ARE VFR BUT WILL TREND DOWN TO MVFR
OVERNIGHT INTO TODAY AS INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES AS SFC
TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS. COULD BE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AT TIMES
LATE OVERNIGHT INTO TODAY...ESPECIALLY AT IWD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016
THE TUE NIGHT/WED TIME FRAME WILL BE THE MAIN PERIOD OF INTEREST FOR
STRONG WINDS ON LAKE SUPERIOR THIS WEEK AS LOW PRES TRACKS FROM THE
SRN PLAINS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LWR MI. LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL
GENERATE A PERIOD OF NE TO N GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS LATE TUE NIGHT
THRU EARLY WED AFTN OVER ALL BUT FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ004>007-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ TUESDAY TO 7 AM
EST /6 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ001>003-009-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ013-014.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ012.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ010-011.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
324 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016
THE AREA WILL SEE A QUIET AND CONTINUED MILD DAY TODAY AFTER THE
RAIN ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL REMAIN BRIEF AS WE WILL SEE A
STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA
INITIALLY...AND THEN EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO RAIN WITH A MIX
POSSIBLE UP NORTH DURING THE TRANSITION.
COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...HELPING TO CHANGE ANY LEFT OVER RAIN SHOWERS OVER TO
SNOW SHOWERS. CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THEN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH COOLER AIR EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016
THE FORECAST GENERALLY REMAINS THE SAME REGARDING THE UPCOMING STORM
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THE ONLY NOTICEABLE
CHANGE WAS THAT WE HAVE ADDED A CHC OF SOME FREEZING RAIN UP NORTH
LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THIS LIGHT ICING POSSIBLE AND BURST OF SNOW ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SYSTEM LOOK TO PRODUCE THE MOST IMPACTS
REGARDING THE STORM FOR SW LOWER MI.
RAIN AND SNOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE CWFA THIS MORNING...AND WE SHOULD
REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE CWFA AT LEAST UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK TUE
MORNING. SOME CLEARING IS TRYING TO MOVE IN THIS MORNING...HOWEVER
LOW CLOUDS ARE REFORMING WITH THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND WIND...AND
MORE CLOUDS WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FIRST CHC OF PCPN WITH THE WELL ADVERTISED STORM WILL COME
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE MORNING. THIS WILL COME IN THE FORM OF SOME
FLURRIES/VERY LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD WAVE COMING IN AHEAD
OF THE MAIN WAVE. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAIRLY DRY INITIALLY WHICH
WILL LIMIT ANY SNOW AMOUNTS THAT WOULD FALL WITH THIS.
THE MAIN THRUST OF PCPN WILL COME DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS ON TUE. THIS IS WHEN WE WILL SEE THE MAIN SURGE OF
MOISTURE MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. PCPN SOUTH OF I-96 WILL TRANSITION
QUICKLY TO RAIN FROM SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SFC WILL BE
ABOVE FREEZING BY THEN...AND THE MELTING LAYER WILL BECOME QUITE
LARGE VERY QUICKLY. THIS WILL THEN PROGRESS STEADILY NORTH THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS.
AREAS UP NORTH WILL SEE A LONGER POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WHICH WILL ALLOW
ACCUMS TO BE A LITTLE BIT BETTER. THE HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWFA. NORTHERN AREAS WILL THEN SEE A
SHORT WINDOW FOR SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO
FREEZING THAT WILL WET BULB DOWN A LITTLE AS TEMPS ALOFT GO ABOVE
FREEZING. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ICE...HOWEVER A TENTH OR
SO STILL COULD CAUSE SOME ISSUES UNTIL TEMPS GO ABOVE FREEZING THERE
MID EVENING.
THE DRY SLOT WILL WORK INTO THE AREA BY MID EVENING...CUTTING BACK
THE PCPN INTENSITY AND POSSIBLY TURNING PCPN OVER THE DRIZZLE. PCPN
CHCS WILL THEN PICK UP LATE ACROSS THE NW AS THE MAIN WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THAT AREA AND MOISTURE DEPTH WILL INCREASE. WE EXPECT THAT
JUST ABOUT EVERYONE SHOULD REMAIN RAIN THROUGH 12Z WED. AFTER 12Z
WED...THE COLDER AIR WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA...CHANGING RAIN
TO SNOW. BY LATE ON WED...SOME LAKE EFFECT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR NW
FLOW FAVORED AREAS AS H850 TEMPS DROP BELOW -10C GIVING DELTA T/S
AROUND 13C OR SO.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016
THE COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH 700 MB AND AN AIRMASS COLD
ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT WILL SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS WED NIGHT INTO THU.
WILL FEATURE HIGHEST POPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY WEST OF A BATTLE CREEK TO BIG RAPIDS LINE.
WARM AIR ADVECTION SETS UP FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI. WE MAY SEE A
SOUTHWEST FLOW EVENT TRY TO DEVELOP...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE LUDINGTON REGION.
OVERALL THE SET UP IS MARGINAL AND AT THIS POINT I WILL ONLY FEATURE
SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS FOR THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES.
A STRONGER MID LEVEL WAVE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE DGZ BECOMING SATURATED AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE SUPPORTS RELATIVELY HIGH POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
HARD TO BE REAL CONFIDENT ON THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY OR MONDAY.
OVERALL THE TREND HAS BEEN TO FAVOR NUDGING THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE. I NOTICED THE LATEST
00Z HIGH RES EURO RUN PUSHES THE 925 MB TEMP TO POSITIVE VALUES.
THIS WOULD FAVOR MORE IN THE WAY OF RAIN SHOWERS. WILL KEEP IT SNOW
SHOWERS AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
FOR THE MOST PART IFR CIGS AND IN SOME CASES IFR VSBY PREVAILED AT
ALL OF OUR TAF SITES. SINCE THE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY COME
THROUGH I WOULD EXPECT SOME CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THE RAP MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW DENSE FOG OVER OUR
WESTERN CWA TOWARD MORNING. GIVEN THE FORECAST LIGHT WINDS
FORECAST BY MORNING... THIS WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.
STILL I BELIEVE THE MVFR CIG WILL PREVAIL TOMORROW.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016
WE WILL BE ISSUING A GALE WATCH FOR MUCH OF TUE AND TUE EVENING FOR
THE ENTIRE NEARSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE LOW BY TUE AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE AND
PEAK TUE EVENING AS THE DRY SLOT PUSHES THROUGH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK... ESPECIALLY IN
LOWLAND AREAS NEAR RIVERS. SOME RIVERS MAY EXCEED BANKFULL DUE TO
SNOW MELT AND A STORM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION OF 0.50-1.00 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION IS
STILL EXPECTED TO BE A WINTRY MIX OR PLAIN RAIN. RIVER LEVEL RISES
ARE ESPECIALLY LIKELY FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE NEARSHORE FROM 15Z TUE THROUGH 04Z
WED.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...NJJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1243 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
WIDESPREAD LGT RAIN HAS EXITED OUT OF EASTERN CWA AS UPPER JET
STREAK AND SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVE EAST. LEFT IN THE
WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM IS WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER LK SUPERIOR WITHIN BROAD
TROUGHING ALOFT. A COUPLE OF VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH IN
THE FLOW ARE TRIGGERING LOOSELY ORGANIZED AREAS OF LGT PRECIP. ONE
IS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR WITH SOME ECHOES SHOWING UP ON THE RADAR
LAST COUPLE HOURS. MOST LIKELY ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS IN THAT BAND.
OTHER AREA OF PRECIP IS OVER NORTHEAST MN. HAVE HAD A COUPLE OBS
WITH LGT SNOW 4SM-7SM WITHIN THOSE SCATTERED RADAR ECHOES. LATEST
HRRR MODEL HAS LATCHED ON TO THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE FAR
NORTHEAST CWA. SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW AS MOIST LAYER IS
UP TO 800- 750MB WITH TEMPS IN THAT LAYER -12C OR SO. INCREASED POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER EAST OVERNIGHT AS THIS WAVE/LGT PRECIP MOVES THROUGH.
KEPT THEME OF ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS OR FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER WEST AS
PRECIP OVER NORTHEAST MN MOVES IN WITH HRRR INDICATING TEMPS IN
MOIST LAYER -8C TO -10C.
BOTH OF THESE DISTURBANCES SEEM TO HELP PUSH THE SFC TROUGH OVER LK
SUPERIOR ALONG INTO NORTHERN CWA BY DAYBREAK MON. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BEHIND THIS TROUGH /TEMPS IN MOIST LAYER LOWER THAN -10C BUT NOT BY
MUCH/. DID KEEP ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS FOR LK SUPERIOR SNOW BELTS INTO
MON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WORKING THROUGH BY MID MORNING COULD HELP
THESE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG.
FINALLY...CONCERNING THE UPCOMING POTENTIAL WINTER STORM TAKING A
QUICK LOOK AT 00Z NAM THE TIMING IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW TUE AFTN. STRIPE OF HEAVIEST QPF 18Z WED THROUGH 06Z
WED OVER 0.75 INCHES STAYS CENTERED ON FAR SCNTRL...VCNTY OF MNM.
LESSER AMOUNTS UP TO 0.50 EXTEND TO IMT-ESC-ISQ. 21Z SREF MEAN QPF
DURING THE WATCH PERIOD 18Z TUE THROUGH 18Z WED IS SOLID 0.60 INCH
OVER WATCH AREA WITH POCKET OF 0.75 INCHES NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN
UPSLOPE AREAS. THE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVE PLAYERS ARE JUST PHASING OVER
SOUTHERN CA THIS EVENING AS UPPER JET CARVES OUT TROUGH...SO RAOBS
SHOULD BEGIN TO SAMPLE THIS SYSTEM MORE THOROUGHLY FM HERE ON OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS. STRONG SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING ONSHORE OF CA WILL BE THE
FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR A GREAT LAKES WINTER STORM MID WEEK AS IT
TRACKS E...THEN NE. SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST IN SHORT TERM IS NOW
MOVING E ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. SOME LIGHT PCPN HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
ERN IA AND MAINLY THE SE HALF OF WI THIS AFTERNOON WITH THIS
FEATURE...AIDED BY UPR DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET NOW
MOVING INTO SRN QUEBEC.
SHORTWAVE OVER IA WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. IN TURN...ASSOC SFC WILL TRACK FROM SRN
LAKE MI TO NEAR THE GEORGIAN BAY THIS EVENING. DEEP LAYER FORCING
SPREADING INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE PER MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV AND 700-600 MB FGEN HAS HELPED
SUPPORT SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER SCNTRL AND SE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS
NOTED ON AREA WEBCAMS.
BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS AND 1000-850MB THICKNESS FIELD...ANY PCPN
OVER THE SE FCST AREA SHOULD TURN FROM RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX TO
MOSTLY SNOW BY THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVELS FINALLY BEGIN TO COOL. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION (A FEW TENTHS) DUE TO MIX OF
PCPN AND ABOVE FREEZING SFC TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN IF PCPN
CHANGES TO ALL SNOW.
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE FROM NEAR IA MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WHILE A SFC TROF DROPS S ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO MOST OF NRN
UPPER MI BY 12Z MON. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOISTURE DEPTH MAY NOT
BE SUFFICIENT TO REACH SUB -10C TEMPS CONSISTENTLY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EVENING. SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR -FZDZ AT THAT TIME IF
PCPN OCCURS. THE GENERAL LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING AND MARGINAL AT
BEST INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE SUGGESTS NOTHING MORE THAN 20-30 PCT
POPS FOR -SN/-FZDZ ARE WARRANTED NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. EXPECT
MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
MONDAY...WEAK WINDS AND SHEAR WITHIN CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN LIMIT POPS TO GENERALLY NO MORE
THAN 30 PCT FOR WNW SNOWBELTS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 20S NORTH TO LOWER 30S SOUTH CENTRAL UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST INTO CNTRL CONUS WILL
GIVE WAY TO RIDGING OVER WRN NOAM RESULTING IN NW FLOW INTO THE NRN
LAKES AND INTRUSIONS OF ARCTIC AIR INTO OR JUST TO THE NE OF THE
REGION. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE WINTER STORM MOVING OUT
OF THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUE INTO WED.
MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH SFC RIDGING
FROM SASK/MANITOBA THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. WNW 925-850 MB FLOW WITH
850 MB TEMPS AROUND -11C WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT LES.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS WERE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE WINTER STORM EMERGING FROM THE
PLAINS WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCSTS. ALTHOUGH THE GFS
REMAINED A BIT FARTHER N WITH THE PATH...OVERALL DIFFERENCES
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF/GEM OR DEPARTURE FROM GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS
RELATIVELY MINOR. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER
WITH THE SYSTEM.
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE PLAINS STRONG 700-300 MB
QVECTOR CONV AND 290K-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
HEAVY SNOW...ESPECIALLY FROM 21Z/02-06Z/03. QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 0.4
TO 0.7 INCH RANGE ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND 3 G/KG AVAILABLE. EVEN WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT ABOVE THE
DGZ...SLR VALUES IN THE 15/1-20/1 RANGE ARE EXPECTED LEADING TO 12-
18 HOUR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE CNTRL
CWA...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER THE S AND E. SINCE THE WRN CWA
FROM IWD TO CMX WILL BE ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE LARGE SYNOPTIC PCPN
AREA...CONFIDENCE IN REACHING WARNING AMOUNTS WAS LOWER.
ACCORDINGLY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVER THE WEST IS
ALSO LOWER...ESPECIALLY DURING THE PORTION OF THE EVENT WITH NE LOW
LEVEL FLOW. SO...THE WINTER STORM WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR BARAGA/IRON
COUNTIES EASTWARD. LAKE AND UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCEMENT WILL BE LIKELY
INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -10C BY 06Z/WED
WITH INCREASING NNE WINDS. SNOW TOTALS MAY EXCEED 12 INCHES IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF MARQUETTE. THE HEAVIER SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END
OVER THE SOUTH BY 12Z AND IN THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON AS THE SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE/LIFT DEPART BUT WITH THE WINDS...DRIVING WILL STILL BE
DIFFICULT.
ALTHOUGH THE FCST WINDS ARE NOT EXTREMELY STRONG AND SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN PRREVIOUS FCSTS...CONSIDERABLE BLSN IS EXPECTED NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR AND S CNTRL FROM ESC-MNM.
THU-SUN...A FEW CLIPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES THAT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE CWA.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/POSITION OF THESE FEATURES AND
IMPACT ON LES. COLD ENOUGH AIR WILL PREVAIL FOR PERIODS OF LES FOR
MAINLY NW FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE GFS WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
BRINING COLD AIR INTO THE NRN LAKES BY NEXT WEEKEND COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016
AT CMX...EXPECT MVFR DECK 010-020 TO REMAIN OVERHEAD IN SOME SHAPE
OR FORM THOUGH TODAY WITH NW WINDS AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AS
TROUGH SLIDES OVER NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN. SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SHOWERS BUT VSBY SHOULD BE MVFR FOR THE MOST PART.
AT IWD AND SAW...CONDITIONS ARE VFR BUT WILL TREND DOWN TO MVFR
OVERNIGHT INTO TODAY AS INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES AS SFC
TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS. COULD BE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AT TIMES
LATE OVERNIGHT INTO TODAY...ESPECIALLY AT IWD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
ATTENTION DURING THIS FCST PERIOD WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE MIDWEEK
PORTION OF THE FCST AS LOW PRES TRACKS FROM THE SRN PLAINS NE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL GENERATE A PERIOD OF NE TO
N GALES LATE TUE NIGHT THRU EARLY WED AFTN OVER ALL BUT FAR WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ004>007-010>014-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1136 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. FAIR WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...THEN ANOTHER STORM WILL BRING RAIN AND
SNOW FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. COLDER WEATHER WITH OCCASIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
THE STORM TRACK ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT HAS TRENDED A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND THIS WAS FOLLOWED
IN THE FORECAST UPDATE TO TREND TO SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST ZONES.
FOR TONIGHT...BACK EDGE OF PRECIP FROM THE CURRENT LOW TRACKING
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN SHOULD BE CLEARING THE EASTERN ZONES BY
MIDNIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE SOME SNOW MIXING IN UP NORTH BEFORE IT
ENDS BUT MARGINAL AIR AND SKIN TEMPS SHOULD PREVENT ANY ACCUMS.
QUIET WEATHER FOR MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT LOW
EJECTING FROM THE WESTERN LONGWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES. EAST WINDS
SHOULD HOLD ENOUGH COLD AIR IN FOR SOME MIXED PRECIP AT THE START
BUT SFC TEMPS LOOK MARGINAL FOR ANY ICING. DESPITE STRONG
EASTERLY FLOW THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS RELATIVELY WEAK COMPARED
TO THE 28 DECEMBER STORM...WHICH WAS ABLE TO MAINTAIN SLEET AND
SOME FREEZING RAIN FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ICING POTENTIAL BUT AT THIS POINT IT
APPEARS SKIN TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL AND CAA NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO
ACCOUNT FOR MUCH. SNOW SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN TIER AND
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD GET 2 TO 4 INCHES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...HOWEVER A CLIPPER
SYSTEM SHOULD GIVE US SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
MOISTURE BEHIND THE SYSTEM QUICKLY BECOMES SHALLOW...SO ITS
QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH LAKE EFFECT WE SEE INITIALLY AS THE DGZ DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE SATURATED. WILL LOWER POPS A BIT FOR WED WHERE WE
STILL MAY SEE SOME RAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSITING
TO LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO THE AFTERNOON. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING
SHOULD DEVELOP LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...DIMINISHING ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS.
LAKE EFFECT STILL LOOKS MORE MINIMAL THAN PREVIOUS RUNS RIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE ONLY SLOWLY MOVES EAST. WILL KEEP
POPS IN...BUT WE MAY HAVE TO TRIMMED THEM BACK IF THESE MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE. THE FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT
AS WE GET INTO LATE FRIDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES. SW FLOW
LAKE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD KICK IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE CLIPPER/S SURFACE LOW
STAYING WELL NORTH...OVER THE SUPERIOR REGION. IT DRAGS A FRONT
THROUGH SW MI SATURDAY MORNING WHEN THE SNOW ENHANCEMENT SHOULD
PEAK. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE CLIPPER BY
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
FOR THE MOST PART IFR CIGS AND IN SOME CASES IFR VSBY PREVAILED AT
ALL OF OUR TAF SITES. SINCE THE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY COME
THROUGH I WOULD EXPECT SOME CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THE RAP MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW DENSE FOG OVER OUR
WESTERN CWA TOWARD MORNING. GIVEN THE FORECAST LIGHT WINDS
FORECAST BY MORNING... THIS WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.
STILL I BELIEVE THE MVFR CIG WILL PREVAIL TOMORROW.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BUT THERE
WILL BE SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG AT TIMES TONIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK... ESPECIALLY IN
LOWLAND AREAS NEAR RIVERS. SOME RIVERS MAY EXCEED BANKFULL DUE TO
SNOW MELT AND A STORM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION OF 0.50-1.00 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION IS
STILL EXPECTED TO BE A WINTRY MIX OR PLAIN RAIN. RIVER LEVEL RISES
ARE ESPECIALLY LIKELY FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...OSTUNO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1151 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS FROM THE
MELTING ON SUNDAY HAS ALLOWED FOG TO FORM AT MOST LOCATIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING. PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE COMMON ONCE AGAIN THIS
MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND ALONG HIGHWAY 8 IN WEST CENTRAL WI.
HELPING TO ABATE THE FOG SOME IS AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDINESS FROM
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE STATE. THIS MASS OF LOW CEILINGS IS BEING
HANDLED FAIRLY WELL BY THE RAP AND NAM AT 875MB. THIS WOULD BRING
THE CLOUDS SOUTHEAST TODAY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR.
HENCE...THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WILL SEE THE MOST CLOUDINESS
TODAY WHILE THE SOUTHWEST HALF WILL SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. IT
WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH HIGHS FROM 30 TO 35 DEGREES.
THE MAIN FEATURE TONIGHT IS THE ONSET OF SNOW AHEAD OF THE WINTER
STORM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY THIS MORNING.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE I-90 CORRIDOR IN
THE 09Z-12Z TIME PERIOD WITH CATEGORICAL POPS IN PLACE. SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE THAT THREE HOUR WINDOW IS UP TO A HALF INCH. LOW
TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED A LITTLE BIT ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE
FA WITH CLOUDINESS INCREASING FASTER WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
TEENS IN CENTRAL MN TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE STRONG WINTER STORM
SET TO IMPACT THE UPPER MIDWEST TOMORROW INTO WEDNESDAY. AFTER THE
STORM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL
FOR EARLY FEBRUARY WITH A FEW CLIPPER SYSTEMS BRINGING POPS INTO THE
FORECAST TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
AS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THE APPROACHING WINTER
STORM...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH. THERE
HAD BEEN TWO DISTINCT CAMPS IN TERMS OF THE TRACK OF THE
STORM...WHICH STILL PERSISTED IN THE 00Z PRODUCT SUITE.
THE GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE VARIOUS
GUIDANCE. THE ECMWF LEANED TO THE NORTHERN ENVELOPE COMPARED TO THE
GEM AND THE NAM WHICH HAD A VERY SOUTHERN SOLUTION. THE 00Z RUN OF
THE NAM CAME IN WITH A SLIGHT NORTHWARD JOG...AS DID THE 06Z RUN.
THE 12Z EC YESTERDAY TOOK THE 0.5" QPF LINE INTO THE TWIN CITIES
METRO...BUT THEN DIALED IT BACK TO CLOSER TO 0.4" WITH THE 00Z RUN.
THE GFS HAS SLIGHTLY MORE QPF THAN THE LATEST EC. A FIRST LOOK AT
WHAT THE HI-RES ARW AND NMM INDICATE CAME IN OVERNIGHT...WITH
STARK DIFFERENCES AMONG THEM AS WELL. WHILE THE NMM INDICATED 0.48"
OF QPF FOR MSP...THE ARW INDICATED JUST 0.08". THE POINT IS...THERE
IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HEAVY SNOW
SWATH...THERE WILL BE A TIGHT SNOWFALL GRADIENT AND IT WILL BE VERY
CLOSE TO THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA. THIS IS WHY THE WATCH PRODUCTS
WERE LEFT IN PLACE FOR NOW. THE 12Z CYCLE OF MODEL GUIDANCE WILL
HOPEFULLY OFFER LESS UNCERTAINTY AND MORE CONFIDENCE TO NAIL DOWN
WHERE ANY WARNINGS NEED TO BE ISSUED. THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON COMMUTE
WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED BY THIS STORM.
OVERALL...THIS FORECAST LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GFS...SO SNOW AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY TWEAKED UPWARD...AND A COUPLE OF
COUNTIES WERE ADDED TO THE WINTER STORM WATCH. AS FOR THE BLIZZARD
WATCH...DECIDED TO HOLD ON TO IT PRIMARILY DUE TO THE GUIDANCE
BACKING OFF SOME ON THE WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN. ITS STILL
GOING TO BE BREEZY...BUT WE ARE NOT SURE IF BLIZZARD CRITERIA WILL BE
MET AT THIS TIME. THE WINDS LOOK STRONGER IN IOWA...WHICH EXPLAINS
WHY THEY WERE ABLE TO GO AHEAD WITH A BLIZZARD WARNING THERE. COULD
HAVE GONE WINTER STORM WARNING IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN...BUT DIDNT WANT
PEOPLE TO TAKE THEIR GUARD DOWN ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF TRUE
BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN. IF THE 12Z GUIDANCE
COMES IN WITH A SLIGHTLY DEEPER SURFACE LOW...TRUE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS COULD BE REALIZED. REGARDLESS...TRAVEL ALONG THE I-90
CORRIDOR WILL BE TREACHEROUS TOMORROW WITH HEAVY SNOW AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR 6 TO 10 INCHES.
NOT MUCH IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BEYOND
TOMORROW...WITH TWO WAVES WORKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH CANADA THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT WOULD PRODUCE VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW.
OTHERWISE...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...BUT THE ECMWF
DOES INDICATE THE ARCTIC AIR POURING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016
PATCHY FREEZING FOG AND AREAS OF LOW CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY IN AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CIGS...WHICH WILL LIKELY BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. TOMORROW MORNING...LOW
CIGS ARE STILL LIKELY BUT ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO SNOW MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTH. LIGHT SNOW WILL START ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND PARTS
OF WEST CENTRAL WI AROUND 15Z...AND SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD INCREASE
BY 18Z. IFR VISIBILITY IS LIKELY BETWEEN 16Z-18Z FROM THE TWIN
CITIES SOUTH AS SNOW INTENSIFIES.
KMSP...A POCKET OF CLEAR SKIES IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE...BUT LOW
CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE IN WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON. IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING UNDER THE LOW
CLOUD DECK...WITH PATCHY FOG/MIST ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND 15Z
TUESDAY...AND WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY ENOUGH THAT IFR VISIBILITY IS
LIKELY BY 16Z-18Z. WINDS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE
NE AND INTENSIFY TO 15-20 KTS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS BY 18Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE AFTN-NIGHT...IFR IN SN WITH CHC LIFR. WIND NNE 15-25 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
WIZ015-016-023>028.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR WIZ014.
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
MNZ060-062-063-067>070-075>078.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR MNZ051>053-058-059-061-064>066.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
MNZ073-074-082>085-091>093.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...ADL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
602 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS FROM THE
MELTING ON SUNDAY HAS ALLOWED FOG TO FORM AT MOST LOCATIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING. PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE COMMON ONCE AGAIN THIS
MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND ALONG HIGHWAY 8 IN WEST CENTRAL WI.
HELPING TO ABATE THE FOG SOME IS AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDINESS FROM
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE STATE. THIS MASS OF LOW CEILINGS IS BEING
HANDLED FAIRLY WELL BY THE RAP AND NAM AT 875MB. THIS WOULD BRING
THE CLOUDS SOUTHEAST TODAY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR.
HENCE...THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WILL SEE THE MOST CLOUDINESS
TODAY WHILE THE SOUTHWEST HALF WILL SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. IT
WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH HIGHS FROM 30 TO 35 DEGREES.
THE MAIN FEATURE TONIGHT IS THE ONSET OF SNOW AHEAD OF THE WINTER
STORM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY THIS MORNING.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE I-90 CORRIDOR IN
THE 09Z-12Z TIME PERIOD WITH CATEGORICAL POPS IN PLACE. SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE THAT THREE HOUR WINDOW IS UP TO A HALF INCH. LOW
TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED A LITTLE BIT ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE
FA WITH CLOUDINESS INCREASING FASTER WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
TEENS IN CENTRAL MN TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE STRONG WINTER STORM
SET TO IMPACT THE UPPER MIDWEST TOMORROW INTO WEDNESDAY. AFTER THE
STORM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL
FOR EARLY FEBRUARY WITH A FEW CLIPPER SYSTEMS BRINGING POPS INTO THE
FORECAST TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
AS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THE APPROACHING WINTER
STORM...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH. THERE
HAD BEEN TWO DISTINCT CAMPS IN TERMS OF THE TRACK OF THE
STORM...WHICH STILL PERSISTED IN THE 00Z PRODUCT SUITE.
THE GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE VARIOUS
GUIDANCE. THE ECMWF LEANED TO THE NORTHERN ENVELOPE COMPARED TO THE
GEM AND THE NAM WHICH HAD A VERY SOUTHERN SOLUTION. THE 00Z RUN OF
THE NAM CAME IN WITH A SLIGHT NORTHWARD JOG...AS DID THE 06Z RUN.
THE 12Z EC YESTERDAY TOOK THE 0.5" QPF LINE INTO THE TWIN CITIES
METRO...BUT THEN DIALED IT BACK TO CLOSER TO 0.4" WITH THE 00Z RUN.
THE GFS HAS SLIGHTLY MORE QPF THAN THE LATEST EC. A FIRST LOOK AT
WHAT THE HI-RES ARW AND NMM INDICATE CAME IN OVERNIGHT...WITH
STARK DIFFERENCES AMONG THEM AS WELL. WHILE THE NMM INDICATED 0.48"
OF QPF FOR MSP...THE ARW INDICATED JUST 0.08". THE POINT IS...THERE
IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HEAVY SNOW
SWATH...THERE WILL BE A TIGHT SNOWFALL GRADIENT AND IT WILL BE VERY
CLOSE TO THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA. THIS IS WHY THE WATCH PRODUCTS
WERE LEFT IN PLACE FOR NOW. THE 12Z CYCLE OF MODEL GUIDANCE WILL
HOPEFULLY OFFER LESS UNCERTAINTY AND MORE CONFIDENCE TO NAIL DOWN
WHERE ANY WARNINGS NEED TO BE ISSUED. THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON COMMUTE
WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED BY THIS STORM.
OVERALL...THIS FORECAST LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GFS...SO SNOW AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY TWEAKED UPWARD...AND A COUPLE OF
COUNTIES WERE ADDED TO THE WINTER STORM WATCH. AS FOR THE BLIZZARD
WATCH...DECIDED TO HOLD ON TO IT PRIMARILY DUE TO THE GUIDANCE
BACKING OFF SOME ON THE WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN. ITS STILL
GOING TO BE BREEZY...BUT WE ARE NOT SURE IF BLIZZARD CRITERIA WILL BE
MET AT THIS TIME. THE WINDS LOOK STRONGER IN IOWA...WHICH EXPLAINS
WHY THEY WERE ABLE TO GO AHEAD WITH A BLIZZARD WARNING THERE. COULD
HAVE GONE WINTER STORM WARNING IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN...BUT DIDNT WANT
PEOPLE TO TAKE THEIR GUARD DOWN ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF TRUE
BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN. IF THE 12Z GUIDANCE
COMES IN WITH A SLIGHTLY DEEPER SURFACE LOW...TRUE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS COULD BE REALIZED. REGARDLESS...TRAVEL ALONG THE I-90
CORRIDOR WILL BE TREACHEROUS TOMORROW WITH HEAVY SNOW AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR 6 TO 10 INCHES.
NOT MUCH IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BEYOND
TOMORROW...WITH TWO WAVES WORKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH CANADA THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT WOULD PRODUCE VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW.
OTHERWISE...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...BUT THE ECMWF
DOES INDICATE THE ARCTIC AIR POURING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016
SADDLED AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VARYING CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES DUE TO STRATUS AND FOG. AT THIS POINT THE WORST IS
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. THE AREA OF LOW
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS STRETCH FROM CENTRAL MN ALL THE WAY NORTH TO THE
CANADIAN BORDER. THESE WILL BE SLIDING SE TODAY WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL ONCE
AGAIN LEAVE US VULNERABLE TONIGHT FOR MORE LOW CEILING/VSBY
DEVELOPMENT AS VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS PERSIST. SNOW WILL
ALSO LIKELY OVERSPREAD FAR SOUTHERN MN BY 12Z TUE. THE SNOW WILL
LIKELY REACH MSP BEFORE THE END OF THE 30 HOUR TAF AT 18Z. LIGHT
WNW WINDS TODAY BECOMING NE TONIGHT.
KMSP...LOW MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED BY 15Z. THESE COULD COME IN
UNDER 010 AND PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS WITH A RETURN TO VFR FOR THE
AFTERNOON. INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY BR/FG DEVELOPMENT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...SNOW FROM THE WINTER STORM...CURRENTLY IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...WILL LIKELY ARRIVE IN THE 16Z-18Z
TIME FRAME ON TUESDAY WITH A RAPID DETERIORATION FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. SNOW ACCUMULATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
AROUND 3 INCHES WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO TUESDAY EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE AFTN...IFR IN SN LIKELY WITH CHC LIFR. WIND NE 10-20 KTS.
TUE NIGHT...IFR IN SN LIKELY WITH CHC LIFR. WIND N 20G35KT.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 15G25KT.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR IN -SN. SW WIND BCMG WNW 5-10KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR WIZ016-024>028.
MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR MNZ082>085-091>093.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR MNZ070-074>078.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
403 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS FROM THE
MELTING ON SUNDAY HAS ALLOWED FOG TO FORM AT MOST LOCATIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING. PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE COMMON ONCE AGAIN THIS
MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND ALONG HIGHWAY 8 IN WEST CENTRAL WI.
HELPING TO ABATE THE FOG SOME IS AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDINESS FROM
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE STATE. THIS MASS OF LOW CEILINGS IS BEING
HANDLED FAIRLY WELL BY THE RAP AND NAM AT 875MB. THIS WOULD BRING
THE CLOUDS SOUTHEAST TODAY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR.
HENCE...THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WILL SEE THE MOST CLOUDINESS
TODAY WHILE THE SOUTHWEST HALF WILL SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. IT
WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH HIGHS FROM 30 TO 35 DEGREES.
THE MAIN FEATURE TONIGHT IS THE ONSET OF SNOW AHEAD OF THE WINTER
STORM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY THIS MORNING.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE I-90 CORRIDOR IN
THE 09Z-12Z TIME PERIOD WITH CATEGORICAL POPS IN PLACE. SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE THAT THREE HOUR WINDOW IS UP TO A HALF INCH. LOW
TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED A LITTLE BIT ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE
FA WITH CLOUDINESS INCREASING FASTER WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
TEENS IN CENTRAL MN TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE STRONG WINTER STORM
SET TO IMPACT THE UPPER MIDWEST TOMORROW INTO WEDNESDAY. AFTER THE
STORM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL
FOR EARLY FEBRUARY WITH A FEW CLIPPER SYSTEMS BRINGING POPS INTO THE
FORECAST TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
AS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THE APPROACHING WINTER
STORM...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH. THERE
HAD BEEN TWO DISTINCT CAMPS IN TERMS OF THE TRACK OF THE
STORM...WHICH STILL PERSISTED IN THE 00Z PRODUCT SUITE.
THE GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE VARIOUS
GUIDANCE. THE ECMWF LEANED TO THE NORTHERN ENVELOPE COMPARED TO THE
GEM AND THE NAM WHICH HAD A VERY SOUTHERN SOLUTION. THE 00Z RUN OF
THE NAM CAME IN WITH A SLIGHT NORTHWARD JOG...AS DID THE 06Z RUN.
THE 12Z EC YESTERDAY TOOK THE 0.5" QPF LINE INTO THE TWIN CITIES
METRO...BUT THEN DIALED IT BACK TO CLOSER TO 0.4" WITH THE 00Z RUN.
THE GFS HAS SLIGHTLY MORE QPF THAN THE LATEST EC. A FIRST LOOK AT
WHAT THE HI-RES ARW AND NMM INDICATE CAME IN OVERNIGHT...WITH
STARK DIFFERENCES AMONG THEM AS WELL. WHILE THE NMM INDICATED 0.48"
OF QPF FOR MSP...THE ARW INDICATED JUST 0.08". THE POINT IS...THERE
IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HEAVY SNOW
SWATH...THERE WILL BE A TIGHT SNOWFALL GRADIENT AND IT WILL BE VERY
CLOSE TO THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA. THIS IS WHY THE WATCH PRODUCTS
WERE LEFT IN PLACE FOR NOW. THE 12Z CYCLE OF MODEL GUIDANCE WILL
HOPEFULLY OFFER LESS UNCERTAINTY AND MORE CONFIDENCE TO NAIL DOWN
WHERE ANY WARNINGS NEED TO BE ISSUED. THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON COMMUTE
WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED BY THIS STORM.
OVERALL...THIS FORECAST LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GFS...SO SNOW AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY TWEAKED UPWARD...AND A COUPLE OF
COUNTIES WERE ADDED TO THE WINTER STORM WATCH. AS FOR THE BLIZZARD
WATCH...DECIDED TO HOLD ON TO IT PRIMARILY DUE TO THE GUIDANCE
BACKING OFF SOME ON THE WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN. ITS STILL
GOING TO BE BREEZY...BUT WE ARE NOT SURE IF BLIZZARD CRITERIA WILL BE
MET AT THIS TIME. THE WINDS LOOK STRONGER IN IOWA...WHICH EXPLAINS
WHY THEY WERE ABLE TO GO AHEAD WITH A BLIZZARD WARNING THERE. COULD
HAVE GONE WINTER STORM WARNING IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN...BUT DIDNT WANT
PEOPLE TO TAKE THEIR GUARD DOWN ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF TRUE
BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN. IF THE 12Z GUIDANCE
COMES IN WITH A SLIGHTLY DEEPER SURFACE LOW...TRUE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS COULD BE REALIZED. REGARDLESS...TRAVEL ALONG THE I-90
CORRIDOR WILL BE TREACHEROUS TOMORROW WITH HEAVY SNOW AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR 6 TO 10 INCHES.
NOT MUCH IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BEYOND
TOMORROW...WITH TWO WAVES WORKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH CANADA THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT WOULD PRODUCE VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW.
OTHERWISE...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...BUT THE ECMWF
DOES INDICATE THE ARCTIC AIR POURING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
VFR FOR ALL SITES AT INITIALIZATION /EXCEPT KAXN WHICH HAS ALREADY
SEEN ITS VSBY DROP TO 2SM/. AM STILL EXPECTING ALL SITES TO DROP
TO MVFR-IFR OVERNIGHT FOR BOTH VSBY AND CEILING THRU DAYBREAK
TOMORROW DUE TO LOW STRATUS/FOG...GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNT OF
GROUND/LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO THEN
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...EVEN AFTER THE VSBY
HAS IMPROVED. WINDS WILL BE W/NW AOB 7 KTS THRU THE PERIOD.
KMSP...CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH IN LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY THRU THE MORNING PUSH WITH IFR CEILINGS
AND MVFR VSBY. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT SHOULD BR TURN
MORE INTO A FG SCENARIO...DEPOSITION FROM THE FOG COULD CREATE
SLICK PAVEMENT /IF UNTREATED/ GIVEN THAT TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE
20S. VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY LATE MRNG BUT LOW
CEILINGS...POTENTIALLY BELOW 1700 FT...WILL LIKELY LINGER THRU
THE AFTN.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR MORNING. MVFR/-SN AFTERNOON. WIND NE 10-20 KTS.
TUE NIGHT...MVFR/-SN WITH IFR/LIFR SN POSSIBLE. WIND N 20G35KT.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 15G25KT.
THU...VFR. SLGT CHC MVFR IN -SN. SW WIND BCMG WNW 5-10KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR WIZ016-024>028.
MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR MNZ082>085-091>093.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR MNZ070-074>078.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
348 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016
THE FOCUS IS ON THE WINTER STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE ARE STILL NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELED TRACKS
OF THE LOW. THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF HAVE MORE NORTHERLY ROUTES
THROUGH NW ILLINOIS AND SE WISCONSIN...BUT THE 00Z NAM AND
00Z CANADIAN HAVE MORE SOUTHERLY ROUTES TOWARDS NORTHERN INDIANA
OR FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THE NORTHERLY ROUTE WOULD AFFECT
THE NORTHLAND MORE SO THAN THE SOUTHERLY ROUTE. USED A BLEND OF
ALL FOUR MODELS...AND ALSO THE 21Z SREF. THE RESULT INCREASED PCPN
CHANCES FOR THE SE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST FORECAST HAS HEAVY
SNOW...ABOUT 6 TO 8 INCHES...FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF PRICE
COUNTY...SO ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE COUNTY. THE DAY
SHIFT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER ISSUING A WARNING FOR PRICE COUNTY IF
CONFIDENCE IN MORE THAN 6 INCHES OF SNOW INCREASES...AND ALSO
CONSIDER ADVISORIES FOR OTHER PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN FOR THE LIKELY
MODERATE SNOWFALL.
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. A VERY
SUBTLE TROUGH/COLD FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TODAY. THERE COULD BE EARLY
MORNING FOG...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TODAY.
THE SUBTLE EFFECTS FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH SHOULD HELP
PRODUCE CLOUDY SKIES AND COULD PRODUCE VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUDY SKIES WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKY MOUNTAINS TODAY...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR FAR SE COLORADO LATER TODAY. THE LOW WILL
THEN LIFT THROUGH THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THIS WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH SNOW. THE LOW
WILL LIKELY TRACK TOWARDS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN...REACHING THE LAKE TUESDAY EVENING. THE MORE NORTHERN
THE TRACK...THE MORE THE STORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND.
AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE STORM WILL SNOW TO AS FAR AS NW
WISCONSIN. THE SNOW SHOULD SPREAD INTO NW WISCONSIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...PEAK IN INTENSITY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND GRADUALLY TAPER OFF EARLY WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF NW
WISCONSIN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...AND HEAVY SNOWFALL OF MORE THAN 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE FOR
PARTS OF PRICE COUNTY. AREAS OF NE MINNESOTA COULD GET A
DUSTING...INCLUDING THE TWIN PORTS...AND THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR THROUGH PINE COUNTY COULD GET 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE SNOW
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY 10 TO 15 MPH COLD NORTHERLY WINDS...WHICH
WOULD LOWER THE VISIBILITY.
THERE WILL BE A COOLING TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND
BEYOND. TODAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 20S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016
THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO QUEBEC BY 00Z THURSDAY. THIS ALLOWS HIGH
PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THERE WILL
BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WILL BE WNW WHICH WILL MEAN HAVING SOME LOW
POPS OVER BAYFIELD COUNTY AS WELL AS THE GOGEBIC RANGE AND EVEN
INLAND AS FAR SOUTH AS PRICE COUNTY IN THE MORNING. IN THE
AFTERNOON...DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY THROUGH NW WI. THE
WIND IN THE 1000-900MB LAYER BEGINS TO TURN A BIT MORE WESTERLY.
WILL HAVE POPS MAINLY OVER IRON COUNTY WI AS A RESULT. THE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CHARGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...AN UPPER
LONG WAVE TROF MOVES INTO THE REGION. EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROF AND BRING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW INTO NE
MN...MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 53. WITH DEEP MOISTURE LACKING...ONLY
SMALL POPS WERE USED. THIS LONG WAVE TROF DRIFTS INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. WILL MAINTAIN THE SMALL POPS FOR LIGHT
SNOW. A BREAK FROM THE LIGHT SNOW ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
TROF DEPARTS AND SFC RIDGING COVERS THE AREA. ON FRIDAY...THE
MODELS AGREE ON THE NEXT LONG WAVE TROF TO MOVE OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THEY DISAGREE ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF A SFC LOW
AND ITS AFFECT ON THE REGION. HAVE LOW POPS AS A RESULT OF THIS
DISAGREEMENT. THIS PERSISTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE ECMWF MOVES THE
TROF EAST OF THE AREA AND SFC RIDGING TO COVER THE NORTHLAND.
WHILE THE GFS ALLOWS SFC RIDGING...IT DROPS A COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA WITH LIGHT SNOW. BLENDED THE SOLUTIONS FOR POPS. SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE WITH A FAVORABLE WIND/FETCH/CAA. A VORTICITY MAXIMA
SWINGS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. STRENGTH OF THIS
MAXIMA IS HANDLED DIFFERENTLY BY THE MODELS AS WELL AS
SPEED/LOCATION. HAVE SMALL POPS AS A RESULT. A TRANSITION TO A
RATHER SNOWY PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT THAT LASTS THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE TIMING ISSUES AS WELL AS
DEPTH/STRENGTH OF SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT. USED A BLENDED APPROACH TO
POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE ISSUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
A WEAK TROUGH STRETCHING FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WILL DROP SOUTH TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FEATURE
WAS RATHER WEAK...BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH IN WNW
FLOW ALOFT. THESE FEATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH
TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME FLURRIES/BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS IN SPOTS OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN SPREADING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST...AND THE
LATEST RAP CONTINUES THIS TREND. KINL/KHIB/KHYR WERE ALL REPORTING
VFR CONDITIONS...BUT THEY SHOULD ALL GO TO MVFR OVERNIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG
WILL BE AT KHYR WHERE SKIES WERE CLEAR AS OF 0530Z WITH A LOW
TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE AS WELL
INTO MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 30 18 26 8 / 10 10 30 30
INL 25 5 19 -1 / 10 10 0 0
BRD 32 18 26 9 / 10 0 10 10
HYR 34 18 29 15 / 10 0 70 70
ASX 31 19 29 17 / 0 0 60 70
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR WIZ009.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1140 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOUR WITH A VERY
WEAK TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE IS
CURRENTLY DRAPED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...AND SHOULD SLOWLY SAG
SOUTH AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A VERY
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW
TONIGHT...AND I EXPECT IT TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND BRING SOME
VERY SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS...SO HAVE
CARRIED SOME SMALL POPS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...AM NOT TERRIBLY EXCITED
ABOUT THIS AND HAVE KEPT BOTH POPS AND QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS SMALL. THE
CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S...THOUGH
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOWER TEMPS SHOULD THE CLOUD COVER NOT
THICKEN UP MUCH. MONDAY WE SHOULD HAVE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER WITH
THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY SYSTEM DEVELOPING OUT OVER THE PLAINS AND
SPREADING CIRRUS OUR WAY. THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
DOWN A LITTLE...SO HAVE GONE WITH COOLER TEMPS THAN TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS SHAPING UP TO BE A STORMY ONE FOR MUCH OF
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS QUIET ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE
EVENING ACROSS THE GOGEBIC RANGE AREA. THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPCOMING WINTER
STORM THAT WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z TUESDAY. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO MUCH OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY...WITH STRONG WINDS LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR UP TO A
HALF FOOT OF SNOW WILL BE IN PORTIONS OF PRICE COUNTY WISCONSIN. THE
GFS IS FASTER IN CARRYING THE SYSTEM NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT
LAKES...BUT OVERALL THEY ARE STARTING TO COME INTO PRETTY DECENT
AGREEMENT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROBABLY RANGE FROM
NO ACCUMULATION ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA...WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATION ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN...THE TWIN PORTS AND THE
NORTH SHORE...TO AS MUCH AS 5 TO 6 INCHES IN PRICE COUNTY.
CONTEMPLATED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THAT COUNTY...BUT IT STILL HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO GO THE WAY OF AN ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA. NO MATTER
WHAT...WE SHOULD SEE STRONG WINDS...AND SNOW ACROSS ALL OF NW WI. A
WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL SWOOP DOWN ON THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...AS A MORE MERIDIONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE 20S...AND LOWS VARYING
CONSIDERABLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
A WEAK TROUGH STRETCHING FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WILL DROP SOUTH TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FEATURE
WAS RATHER WEAK...BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH IN WNW
FLOW ALOFT. THESE FEATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH
TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME FLURRIES/BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS IN SPOTS OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN SPREADING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST...AND THE
LATEST RAP CONTINUES THIS TREND. KINL/KHIB/KHYR WERE ALL REPORTING
VFR CONDITIONS...BUT THEY SHOULD ALL GO TO MVFR OVERNIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG WILL
BE AT KHYR WHERE SKIES WERE CLEAR AS OF 0530Z WITH A LOW
TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE AS WELL
INTO MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 22 30 15 24 / 20 20 10 10
INL 13 24 4 16 / 20 20 10 0
BRD 21 31 16 24 / 10 10 0 10
HYR 23 31 17 28 / 10 10 0 60
ASX 24 32 18 27 / 20 20 10 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
1040 PM MST SUN JAN 31 2016
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
.DISCUSSION...
UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, COLD AIR ALOFT, AND
WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY PASSING OVER THE AREA, CONTINUES TO GENERATE
AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW. AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SNOW HAS DECREASED
SO, BASED ON HRRR ANALYSIS, HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR A PORTION OF NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
PERSIST OVERNIGHT NORTH AND EAST OF GREAT FALLS WITH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE-HALF INCH OVER THE PLAINS.
REMAINDER OF CURRENT FORECAST DETAILS LOOK GOOD INCLUDING
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0540Z.
UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING
OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS AFTER 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF SNOW SHOWERS. MOUNTAINS
OBSCURED AT TIMES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 232 PM MST SUN JAN 31 2016
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE FLOW ALOFT...COMBINED WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION...AS ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW GRAINS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIGHT IN
INTENSITY...BUT A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW
ONE MILE ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. NEW SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 1 INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE SAME
AMOUNT OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER...SOME MELTING WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY REDUCING THE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION A BIT. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THE SNOWFALL WILL BE
QUICKLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES...AND THAT BRIDGES CAN ICE OVER
QUICKER THAN ROADWAY SURFACES. ADDITIONALLY...SOME WET ROADWAYS
WILL GRADUALLY FREEZE OVER THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET. FOR
TUESDAY...THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...WITH A FEW
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...MOST OF
THE SNOW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WILL MAINLY AFFECT MOUNTAIN AREAS.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. BRUSDA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROF STEADILY EXITING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTHERN
WY. A FEW RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
MT AND THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AS THE TROF PASSES THROUGH, BUT ONLY
MINIMAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. LATEST ECMWF AND GFS MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE BACK IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING FROM WED AFTN THROUGH MIDDAY THURS AND NEXT PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH OUR REGION THURS AFTN AND FRI. THE RIDGE
WILL PROVIDE A SHORT BREAK FROM THE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
EARLIER IN THE WEEK AS WINDS SHIFT MORE WESTERLY. HOWEVER, MODELS
CONTINUE EARLIER TREND OF LIMITING ANY DECENT WARM UP FROM THIS
SHIFT, AS NOTED IN 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES THAT INCREASE BY
AROUND 100-120 METERS (SIGNALING WARM AIR ADVECTION) BY THURS
MORNING BUT ONLY TOP OUT AT ABOUT 5360 METERS (THE VALUE OFTEN
MARKING TEMPS NEAR FREEZING AND RAIN VS SNOW PRODUCTION). MUCH OF
THE REGION WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON
THURS/FRI, BUT A STRONGER RIDGE WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER ADVECTION
(THICKNESS VALUES UP TO 5430 METERS) WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY`S WEATHER
SYSTEM, PUSHING TEMPS INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR THE WEEKEND.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WILL BE THURS NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING, WITH MUCH OF OUR AREA
SEEING INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. WITH ONLY MARGINAL
SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS AND LIQUID PRECIP VALUES OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS, SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD LIKELY BE
AROUND A TRACE TO A HALF-INCH BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF FRI
AFTN/EVE.
WARANAUSKAS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 19 30 16 31 / 30 30 10 20
CTB 15 29 14 30 / 30 20 10 10
HLN 14 25 11 26 / 20 30 20 20
BZN 4 22 3 21 / 20 30 20 20
WEY 0 20 -2 18 / 20 10 10 10
DLN 4 19 2 18 / 20 20 20 20
HVR 19 30 16 32 / 30 30 10 10
LWT 17 29 13 29 / 30 40 20 20
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1227 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO PRECIP CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.
VERY LIGHT RADAR RETURNS CONTINUED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE...LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN BUT
REDUCED THE EASTWARD EXTENT.
TEMPERATURES UNDER A STRATUS DECK ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
WILL REMAIN WARMER TONIGHT THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED.
THEREFORE...INCREASED LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE WEST AND CENTRAL AS A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION IS
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT ECHOS ON AREA RADARS. STILL HAVE NOT HAD ANY
OBSERVATIONS REPORTING SNOW YET...AND WITH THE ECHOS ON THE WEAK
SIDE WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW END.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 612 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN LINE WITH CURRENT SATELLITE. CONSIDERED
FOG FOR LATER TONIGHT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AS LATEST HRRR IS
SUGGESTING SOME DEVELOPING FROM THE NORTH...BUT AT THIS TIME SEE
MINIMAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS NORTH OF THE BORDER. WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON THIS AND MAY END UP ADDING IN LATER UPDATES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUDS. PRETTY QUIET WEATHER WISE WITH A CONTINUED GRADUAL COOLING
TREND.
CURRENTLY...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 MPH...BUT GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 MPH OVER THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE
30S AND LOWER 40S.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO RISE POSSIBLE YET THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ELSEWHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED THEIR HIGHS AND WILL BEGIN TO DROP.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LOW
CEILINGS EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
AND THIS IS YET TO MATERIALIZE. THERE IS A BAND OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME AREAS OF FOG OVER NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA...AND HAS BEEN TRYING TO CREEP INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY FROM THE EAST. OTHERWISE THERE IS
MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND THINK
MESOSCALE AND DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE LOW
CLOUDS. WITH THIS SAID...WE ARE AT THE BEGINNING OF A LONG PERIOD
OF COLD ADVECTION AND EXPECT LOWER STRATUS TO MAKE A VISIT. BUT IF
YOU LOOK UPSTREAM YOU DONT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRATUS UNTIL
YOU GET NORTH OF REGINA SASKATCHEWAN...AND YOU DONT SEE REAL COLD
TEMPERATURES UNTIL WELL INTO CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. THEREFORE OUR
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY IS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
AND WE DONT INTRODUCE THE STRATUS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WE DID INTRODUCE A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG OVER THE
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
THE AREA OF FOG/STRATUS OVER NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA TODAY SAGS
SOUTH. MESOSCALE MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE BOTH INDICATING FOG
IN/NEAR THE SOUTHERN JRV.
COULD SEE A PASSING SNOW SHOWER OR TWO BUT EVEN THE MESOSCALE
MODELS ARE PRETTY MEAGER WITH ANY REFLECTIVITIES TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
THE OVERALL TREND FOR COLDER TEMPERATURES/A RETURN TO NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS REMAINS ON TRACK. ALSO...SEVERAL ALBERTA
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS WILL SWEEP THROUGH...WITH PERHAPS THE STRONGEST
ONE COMING AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...SUNDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A LULL IN ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AS A POTENT WINTER STORM PASSES WELL SOUTH OF
NORTH DAKOTA...IMPACTING THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL COOL TO AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR UNDER MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...IT WILL BE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WE
EXPERIENCE FOUR ALBERTA TYPE CLIPPER SYSTEMS/COLD FRONTS SWEEPING
THROUGH. TIMING OF THESE CLIPPER SYSTEMS IS SLATED FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THE STRONGEST
ONE AS MENTIONED ABOVE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE CLIPPER SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...SPOTTY SNOWSHOWERS
WITH UP TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE FAR
NORTH INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER WITH NOT MUCH SNOWFALL NOR
WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER...EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...IMPACTS MINIMAL. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHTS CLIPPER...A DUSTING UP TO A COUPLE TENTHS IN THE SOUTHWEST
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL PER GFS...HOWEVER THE ECMWF PAINTS A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS BUT KEEPS THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL DRY. AGAIN A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND OR SNOW
RESULTS IN LITTLE TO NO TRAVEL IMPACT. WINDS BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT CLIPPER AS BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS INCREASE TO 20KT-25KT...BUT SNOWFALL POTENTIAL REMAINS LIMITED
TO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS WITH UP TO A COUPLE TENTHS AT BEST.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A MUCH
STRONGER CLIPPER PUSHING THROUGH WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 40KT.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW 40-45KT IN THE MIXED LAYER AND AROUND 50KT AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER SUNDAY FOR WILLISTON/MINOT/DICKINSON AND
BISMARCK. LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST TO COINCIDE WITH THE STRONG
WINDS...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN THE COMING DAYS. BECAUSE
OF THE CLIPPERS FAST SPEED THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA...SNOWFALL TOTALS
ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE/PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO...BUT WHATEVER DOES
FALL AT THE TIME OF THE STRONG WINDS MAY RESULT IN VISIBILITY
ISSUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD TRANSITION TO MVFR AT ALL SITES BY THIS
MORNING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACTLY HOW LOW THE CIGS
WILL BE. SOME LOCATIONS COULD FLIRT WITH IFR CONDITIONS WHILE
OTHERS REMAIN ON THE VFR/MVFR FRINGE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
KJMS/KMOT/KISN STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING LOWER CIGS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1137 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
NO UPDATE NECESSARY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 927 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
ADJUSTED SKY COVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING OTHERWISE
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE ANY PATCHY FOG AND LIGHT
SNOW CHANCES OVERNIGHT.
WV LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN MANITOBA. SOME SNOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE
SHORTWAVE...BUT VISIBILITY READINGS AT WINNIPEG AND BRANDON HAVE
NOT GONE LOWER THAN 3SM...MORE OFTEN 6 MILES OR ABOVE. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BRING SOME LIGHT QPF INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS
EVENING...EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA
TOWARDS MORNING. WILL KEEP SOME 20ISH POPS GOING...BUT DO NOT
THINK WE WILL GET MORE THAN A DUSTING OF SNOWFALL.
THE SHORTWAVE HAS STARTED TO SHOVE SOME STRATUS DOWN INTO OUR
NORTH CENTRAL CWA. SOME LOWERED VISIBILITIES CONTINUE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE STRATUS. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO PATCHY FOG
THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN HANGING ON OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES.
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE ALL MORE AGGRESSIVE ON BRINGING GOOD
925 TO 850MB MOISTURE DOWN INTO THE CWA TONIGHT. HRRR AND TO SOME
EXTENT THE RAP HAVE FOG FORMING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE STRATUS.
THINK THAT SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN TO CENTRAL CWA...WITH THE BEST FOG CHANCES
EVENTUALLY MOVING TO OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA AS THE STRATUS PUSHES
IN FROM THE NORTH. AT THIS POINT THINK THAT THE MAIN FOG WILL BE
ALONG THE FRONT EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THINGS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. WITH CLOUDS AND SOME
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOW 20S OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL TO
OUR SOUTH WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A SLOW COOLING
TREND...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE COOLING TREND CONTINUES AS A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH SETS UP FROM ONTARIO DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP TEMPS THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME OF
THE MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR
WEDNESDAY...SO SLOWED THE COOLING TREND. SOME LIGHT PRECIP IS
KICKED UP BY THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...SO INCLUDED SOME VERY LOW
POPS MAINLY IN THE NORTH FOR MID WEEK...AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IF ANY ACCUMULATION.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...12Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
INDICATING A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE PATTERN THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
EVENTS. GLOBAL MODELS DO INDICATE A FEW PROGRESSIVE UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS LATE IN THE WEEK...WHICH COULD BRING A BIT OF LIGHT
SNOW...SO DO HAVE LOW POPS MENTIONED WED NIGHT AND FRI/FRI NIGHT.
12Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A STRONGER PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING
THE PLAINS LATE NEXT WEEKEND...SO ALSO HAVE LOW POPS DURING THAT
TIME.
RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN POOR WITH DAY TO DAY TEMP
TRENDS LATELY IN THE EXTENDED. THE COLDEST AIR MASS IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA...AND TO WHAT
DEGREE WE TAP THAT COLDER AIR AT TIMES WILL DEPEND ON THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW AIDED BY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS.
LATEST DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF VARY ON THE FLOW ORIENTATION AND TEMP
FIELDS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR LATE WEEK...AND WILL THEREFOR CONTINUE
TO MAINTAIN MODEL CONSENUS TEMPS FOR NOW...REASONABLY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
MVFR LOCALLY IFR CIGS ROUGHLY ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE FA. FAR
AND DVL ON THE WESTERN EDGE. SO FAR FOG HAS BEEN LIMITED TO THE
FAR TAF AND HAS BEEN UP AND DOWN. WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR LACK OF
CIGS MAINTAINED FOG MENTION IN FARGO. ELSEWHERE CIGS SHOULD LIMIT
FOG. THESE CIGS SHOULD PERSIST FOR A GOOD PART OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
117 PM EST MON FEB 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT PASSES TODAY BUT MILD AGAIN TUESDAY. STRONG SYSTEM MID
WEEK. A RETURN TO COLDER WEATHER FOLLOWS THAT SYSTEM TO END THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11 AM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ALONG A LINE FROM ROUGHLY
CKB TO HTS...WILL MOVE THROUGH REST OF CWA TODAY...AND HAVE LIKELY
POPS WITH IT. PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL SLOW TO A CRAWL THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND COAL FIELDS...BUT DOES
LOOK TO PUSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT...STALLING SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA.
USING A MIX OF THE HRRR AND LAMP...HAVE NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TRACE FOR TODAY...WITH GRADUALLY FALLING TEMPS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. MAY GET A BRIEF UPWARD BOUNCE IN SE OHIO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON IF THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK UP ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING. DUE TO RECENT MOS PERFORMANCE IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS...SIDED WITH THE WARMER GFS MOS.
MODELS THEN SHOW SHOWERS AND A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THUNDERSTORMS
ARE A POSSIBILITY. OF CONCERN IS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET THAT
OVERLAPS THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION BAND. WORKING AGAINST THE WINDS
GETTING TO THE GROUND HOWEVER...ARE MODEL SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW AN
INVERSION. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION
CLOSELY.
GFS AND ECMWF ARE THEN SHOWING 850 MB TEMPERATURES GETTING COLD
ENOUGH TO OVERTURN THE LOWER LEVELS AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANY RESIDUAL WRAP AROUND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
AND LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPEEDING NEWD AWAY FROM THE
AREA...WILL QUIT OVER THE LOWLANDS AND SWITCH TO UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WED EVENING...AND THEN QUIT OVER THE
MOUNTAINS BY THU MORNING...AS LOW LEVEL NW FLOW BECOMES LIGHT
ANTICYCLONIC AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE W.
THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FOR DRY...SEASONABLY CHILLY
WEATHER THU-SAT. THU DOES NOT LOOK TO PROMISE TOO MUCH
SUNSHINE...THOUGH...GIVEN LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE YIELDING
STRATOCU...AND HIGH CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE MOVING UP ALONG
THE FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH ANY RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT SAT NT GOING TO
SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT CROSSES...A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS LINGERING ON SUNDAY IN ITS WAKE. THAT SAID...THE FRONT
LOOKS BARELY DISCERNIBLE IN THE ECMWF DEPICTION...AND THE MASS
FIELDS AS A WHOLE DIVERGE BY THEN. THIS LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING AS EARLY AS THE END OF
DAY 7N NT...
WITH MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 6...WPC GUIDANCE AND A BLEND OF
MODEL GUIDANCE WAS EMPLOYED FOR TEMPERATURES...NOT QUITE AS COLD
IN THE WAKE OF THE MID WEEK SYSTEM. LEANED MORE TOWARD THE COLDER GFS
DAY 7.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z MONDAY THRU 18Z TUESDAY...
AT 18Z...COLD FRONT STRUGGLING TO EXIT MOUNTAINS...ALONG AN EKN-
BLF LINE...WITH MAIN BATCH OF RAIN EAST OF THAT LINE. FRONT WILL
BE SLOW TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST...BUT WILL EXIT SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS BY
00Z. BECAUSE OF THE SLOW DOWN...ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS 21-01Z.
GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS WILL DOMINATE THRU MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...WITH VFR CEILINGS SOUTHEAST
OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...AND IFR IN THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...CLEARING WILL WORK SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS MUCH OF OF THE AREA TONIGHT...EXCEPT REMAINING MVFR/IFR
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING BKW. FOR FOG...WINDS DECREASE AND
TURN EASTERLY TONIGHT...AND WHERE SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DECREASE
ENOUGH...WE CAN EXPECT RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER 06Z...WITH IFR FOG
MAINLY AFFECTING CRW...EKN...AND AT BKW DUE TO NORTHERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW.
AFTER 14Z...GENERALLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM...BUT
SLOWER IMPROVEMENT SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING BKW AS WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE THERE. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ALREADY
SHIFTING EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE BIGGEST FEATURE TUESDAY WILL BE THE
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY VARY. FOG
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY QUESTIONABLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...OR
COULD BE MORE STRATUS THAN FOG.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L M M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...JMV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1120 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT PASSES TODAY BUT MILD AGAIN TUESDAY. STRONG SYSTEM MID
WEEK. A RETURN TO COLDER WEATHER FOLLOWS THAT SYSTEM TO END THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11 AM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ALONG A LINE FROM ROUGHLY
CKB TO HTS...WILL MOVE THROUGH REST OF CWA TODAY...AND HAVE LIKELY
POPS WITH IT. PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL SLOW TO A CRAWL THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND COAL FIELDS...BUT DOES
LOOK TO PUSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT...STALLING SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA.
USING A MIX OF THE HRRR AND LAMP...HAVE NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TRACE FOR TODAY...WITH GRADUALLY FALLING TEMPS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. MAY GET A BRIEF UPWARD BOUNCE IN SE OHIO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON IF THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK UP ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING. DUE TO RECENT MOS PERFORMANCE IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS...SIDED WITH THE WARMER GFS MOS.
MODELS THEN SHOW SHOWERS AND A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THUNDERSTORMS
ARE A POSSIBILITY. OF CONCERN IS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET THAT
OVERLAPS THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION BAND. WORKING AGAINST THE WINDS
GETTING TO THE GROUND HOWEVER...ARE MODEL SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW AN
INVERSION. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION
CLOSELY.
GFS AND ECMWF ARE THEN SHOWING 850 MB TEMPERATURES GETTING COLD
ENOUGH TO OVERTURN THE LOWER LEVELS AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANY RESIDUAL WRAP AROUND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
AND LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPEEDING NEWD AWAY FROM THE
AREA...WILL QUIT OVER THE LOWLANDS AND SWITCH TO UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WED EVENING...AND THEN QUIT OVER THE
MOUNTAINS BY THU MORNING...AS LOW LEVEL NW FLOW BECOMES LIGHT
ANTICYCLONIC AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE W.
THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FOR DRY...SEASONABLY CHILLY
WEATHER THU-SAT. THU DOES NOT LOOK TO PROMISE TOO MUCH
SUNSHINE...THOUGH...GIVEN LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE YIELDING
STRATOCU...AND HIGH CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE MOVING UP ALONG
THE FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH ANY RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT SAT NT GOING TO
SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT CROSSES...A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS LINGERING ON SUNDAY IN ITS WAKE. THAT SAID...THE FRONT
LOOKS BARELY DISCERNIBLE IN THE ECMWF DEPICTION...AND THE MASS
FIELDS AS A WHOLE DIVERGE BY THEN. THIS LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING AS EARLY AS THE END OF
DAY 7N NT...
WITH MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 6...WPC GUIDANCE AND A BLEND OF
MODEL GUIDANCE WAS EMPLOYED FOR TEMPERATURES...NOT QUITE AS COLD
IN THE WAKE OF THE MID WEEK SYSTEM. LEANED MORE TOWARD THE COLDER GFS
DAY 7.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
15Z MONDAY THRU 12Z TUESDAY...
COLD FRONT INTO MOUNTAINS AT 15Z...WILL SLOW THIS EVENING AS IT
CONTINUES SOUTHEAST. MAIN BATCH OF RAIN LAGS SOMEWHAT BEHIND THE
FRONT...WILL WILL CLEAR THE MOUNTAINS BY 19Z. HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF
THE SLOW DOWN...ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS 21-01Z. DURING THIS
PERIOD...GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS WILL DOMINATE THRU MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH IFR IN THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. THIS CLEARING
FROM MVFR CEILINGS WILL WORK EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...EXCEPT REMAINING MVFR/IFR SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
BKW. WINDS MAY REMAIN JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG AT BAY
TONIGHT...OR CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON FOG FOR
TONIGHT...FOR NOW OMITTING FOG MENTION LATER TONIGHT TIL NEW TAF
EVALUATION. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SWITCH TO EASTERLY
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO THE NORTHWEST QUICKLY MOVES
EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY VARY A
BIT. FOG QUESTIONABLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...OR COULD BE MORE
STRATUS THAN FOG.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
EST 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...JMV/MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
546 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT PASSES TODAY BUT MILD AGAIN TUESDAY. STRONG SYSTEM MID
WEEK. A RETURN TO COLDER WEATHER FOLLOWS THAT SYSTEM TO END THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ALONG A LINE FROM ROUGHLY CKB TO
HTS...WILL MOVE THROUGH REST OF CWA TODAY...AND HAVE LIKELY POPS
WITH IT. PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL SLOW TO A CRAWL THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND COAL FIELDS...BUT DOES
LOOK TO PUSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT...STALLING SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA.
USING A MIX OF THE HRRR AND LAMP...HAVE NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TRACE FOR TODAY...WITH GRADUALLY FALLING TEMPS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. MAY GET A BRIEF UPWARD BOUNCE IN SE OHIO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON IF THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK UP ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING. DUE TO RECENT MOS PERFORMANCE IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS...SIDED WITH THE WARMER GFS MOS.
MODELS THEN SHOW SHOWERS AND A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THUNDERSTORMS
ARE A POSSIBILITY. OF CONCERN IS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET THAT
OVERLAPS THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION BAND. WORKING AGAINST THE WINDS
GETTING TO THE GROUND HOWEVER...ARE MODEL SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW AN
INVERSION. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION
CLOSELY.
GFS AND ECMWF ARE THEN SHOWING 850 MB TEMPERATURES GETTING COLD
ENOUGH TO OVERTURN THE LOWER LEVELS AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANY RESIDUAL WRAP AROUND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
AND LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPEEDING NEWD AWAY FROM THE
AREA...WILL QUIT OVER THE LOWLANDS AND SWITCH TO UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WED EVENING...AND THEN QUIT OVER THE
MOUNTAINS BY THU MORNING...AS LOW LEVEL NW FLOW BECOMES LIGHT
ANTICYCLONIC AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE W.
THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FOR DRY...SEASONABLY CHILLY
WEATHER THU-SAT. THU DOES NOT LOOK TO PROMISE TOO MUCH
SUNSHINE...THOUGH...GIVEN LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE YIELDING
STRATOCU...AND HIGH CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE MOVING UP ALONG
THE FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH ANY RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT SAT NT GOING TO
SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT CROSSES...A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS LINGERING ON SUNDAY IN ITS WAKE. THAT SAID...THE FRONT
LOOKS BARELY DISCERNIBLE IN THE ECMWF DEPICTION...AND THE MASS
FIELDS AS A WHOLE DIVERGE BY THEN. THIS LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING AS EARLY AS THE END OF
DAY 7N NT...
WITH MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 6...WPC GUIDANCE AND A BLEND OF
MODEL GUIDANCE WAS EMPLOYED FOR TEMPERATURES...NOT QUITE AS COLD
IN THE WAKE OF THE MID WEEK SYSTEM. LEANED MORE TOWARD THE COLDER GFS
DAY 7.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BUT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND SLIDES THROUGH...EXPECT MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS. ALSO HAVE A GOOD DOSE OF IFR
IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DOES INCLUDE BKW.
CLOUDS WILL TRY TO BREAK UP LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...BUT THIS
MAY LEAD TO DENSE FOG ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF
CWA. WINDS MAY REMAIN JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG AT BAY...OR
CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON FOG FOR TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO
WESTERLY THEN NORTHERLY AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY VARY A BIT. FOG MAY NOT BE AN ISSUE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...OR COULD BE MORE STRATUS THAN FOG.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 02/01/16
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CRW CONSISTENCY M L M M M L M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M L M M M M M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L L L L L M
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M M M M
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
304 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT PASSES TODAY BUT MILD AGAIN TUESDAY. STRONG SYSTEM MID
WEEK. A RETURN TO COLDER WEATHER FOLLOWS THAT SYSTEM TO END THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE DECOUPLING ISSUES WHICH WERE CAUSING WIDELY
VARYING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY EVENING HAVE SORTED THEMSELVES OUT
WITH EROSION OF THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION. EKN JUMPED OVER 20
DEGREES IN ONE HOUR WITH AN INCREASE IN WIND. CANNOT RULE OUT VERY
SHELTERED VALLEY STAYING DECOUPLED FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS...BUT
IN GENERAL A VERY MILD PRE-DAWN IS IN STORE WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS.
HAVE A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIP ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AND MOVING
EAST AS OF AROUND 06Z...WITH THE COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM NE TO SW
ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CWA TODAY...AND
HAVE LIKELY POPS WITH IT. PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL SLOW TO A
CRAWL THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND COAL
FIELDS...BUT DOES LOOK TO PUSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...STALLING SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA.
USING A MIX OF THE HRRR AND LAMP...HAVE NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TRACE FOR TODAY...WITH GRADUALLY FALLING TEMPS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. MAY GET A BRIEF UPWARD BOUNCE IN SE OHIO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON IF THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK UP ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING. DUE TO RECENT MOS PERFORMANCE IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS...SIDED WITH THE WARMER GFS MOS.
MODELS THEN SHOW SHOWERS AND A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THUNDERSTORMS
ARE A POSSIBILITY. OF CONCERN IS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET THAT
OVERLAPS THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION BAND. WORKING AGAINST THE WINDS
GETTING TO THE GROUND HOWEVER...ARE MODEL SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW AN
INVERSION. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION
CLOSELY.
GFS AND ECMWF ARE THEN SHOWING 850 MB TEMPERATURES GETTING COLD
ENOUGH TO OVERTURN THE LOWER LEVELS AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANY RESIDUAL WRAP AROUND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
AND LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPEEDING NEWD AWAY FROM THE
AREA...WILL QUIT OVER THE LOWLANDS AND SWITCH TO UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WED EVENING...AND THEN QUIT OVER THE
MOUNTAINS BY THU MORNING...AS LOW LEVEL NW FLOW BECOMES LIGHT
ANTICYCLONIC AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE W.
THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FOR DRY...SEASONABLY CHILLY
WEATHER THU-SAT. THU DOES NOT LOOK TO PROMISE TOO MUCH
SUNSHINE...THOUGH...GIVEN LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE YIELDING
STRATOCU...AND HIGH CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE MOVING UP ALONG
THE FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH ANY RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT SAT NT GOING TO
SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT CROSSES...A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS LINGERING ON SUNDAY IN ITS WAKE. THAT SAID...THE FRONT
LOOKS BARELY DISCERNIBLE IN THE ECMWF DEPICTION...AND THE MASS
FIELDS AS A WHOLE DIVERGE BY THEN. THIS LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING AS EARLY AS THE END OF
DAY 7N NT...
WITH MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 6...WPC GUIDANCE AND A BLEND OF
MODEL GUIDANCE WAS EMPLOYED FOR TEMPERATURES...NOT QUITE AS COLD
IN THE WAKE OF THE MID WEEK SYSTEM. LEANED MORE TOWARD THE COLDER GFS
DAY 7.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND SLIDES THROUGH...EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS. ALSO HAVE A GOOD DOSE OF IFR IN THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DOES INCLUDE BKW. CLOUDS WILL
TRY TO BREAK UP LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...BUT THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
DENSE FOG ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF CWA...ALTHOUGH IT
WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
CURRENTLY HAVE RATHER GUSTY SOUTHERN WINDS...THESE MAY DECREASE
SOME THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY
THEN NORTHERLY AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY VARY A BIT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 02/01/16
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M L M M M L M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M L M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M L L L L L L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG TUESDAY MORNING. IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
846 PM PST SUN JAN 31 2016
.DISCUSSION...LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO THE COOS COUNTY COAST
THIS EVENING WITH RAIN SPREADING INTO THE ROSEBURG AREA. OF THE
TWO SHORT TERM MODELS..THE RAP IS DOING BETTER THAN THE HRRR WHICH
SHOWS NO PRECIPITATION BEYOND THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH THE RAP AS
THE REFERENCE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH INTO
JACKSON COUNTY AROUND MIDNIGHT AND BY THAT TIME THE SNOW LEVEL
SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO THE VALLEY FLOOR IN MEDFORD. UP TO AN INCH
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE SEXTON PASS AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE SISKIYOU PASS AROUND 2-3 AM AND
CONTINUE OVER THE SISKIYOU PASS UNTIL AROUND 6 AM. ABOUT AN INCH
OF NEW SNOW IS EXPECTED THERE OVERNIGHT. NEITHER THE HRRR NOR THE
RAP SHOWS PRECIPITATION CROSSING VERY FAR BEYOND THE CASCADES.
WE HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO PARE DOWN POPS THIS EVENING OVER
MOST AREA EXCEPT COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES.
A FROST ADVISORY CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THIS HOWEVER
HINGES ON CLEARING LATER TONIGHT WHICH COULD SEE LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. /FB
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 01/00Z TAF CYCLE...CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR AREA
WIDE THIS EVENING, BUT A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS TO THE WEST SIDE OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE
RAIN AT KOTH AND KRBG, BUT THEY MAY BE MIXED WITH SNOW AT KMFR,
ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE
CASCADES, HOWEVER, SHOWERS WILL BE LESS LIKELY AND MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. IFR VIS/CIGS IN FOG/LOW CLOUD ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
SYSTEM TOMORROW ON THE WEST SIDE, DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SKIES
CLEAR. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR TOMORROW. -WRIGHT
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PST SUN 31 JAN 2016...NORTH WINDS WILL PEAK
AT TO 20-25 KT BEYOND 10 NM FROM SHORE WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE
INNER WATERS AND AROUND 10-15 KT WITHIN A FEW MILES OF SHORE.
HOWEVER, THE COMBINATION OF WEST SWELL AND WIND WAVE WILL KEEP STEEP
SEAS IN PLACE OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ALL OF THIS
DIMINISHES LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS EASE, AND MONDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY
QUIET WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MODERATE WINDS AND STEEP SEAS AGAIN TUESDAY, WHICH WE WILL
ADDRESS AFTER THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ENDS. A MUCH STRONGER
FRONT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE SOUTH GALES AND VERY STEEP
COMBINED SEAS. IN FACT, LATEST GUIDANCE ALL AGREE ON THIS FRONT, SO
THE ONLY REMAINING ISSUE IS THE TIMING OF THE STRONGEST WINDS, NOT
THEIR OCCURRENCE. GALE AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO LIKELY BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HEAVY WEST SWELL. -WRIGHT
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM PST SUN JAN 31 2016/
DISCUSSION...31/12Z NAM/GFS IN.
THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC CHART SHOWS A 5 WAVE PATTERN AROUND THE
GLOBE...WHICH IS GENERALLY A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THERE IS A
MODERATE AMOUNT OF LONGITUDINAL FLOW AND A MODERATE JET STREAM
NOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. SOUTHERN OREGON AND EXTREME
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ARE ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE JET WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND LOW SNOW LEVELS.
LOOKING CLOSER IN...A WEAK LONG WAVE TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL EJECT A
FEW MORE SHORT WAVES OUR WAY WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY STREAMING
INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. IT WILL BE SHOWERY TODAY WITH THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION FALLING ALONG THE COAST...IT WILL BE VERY LIGHT
ELSEWHERE. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOW...IN THE 1500-2500 FOOT RANGE.
THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY AND A LONG WAVE RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. THE LAST OF THE SHORT WAVES MOVING DOWN
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS...PEAKING WITH WHAT AFTERNOON
HEATING THERE IS...WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT WON`T CUT OFF COMPLETELY...THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER ROUND MONDAY.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND
ONSHORE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE WAVE WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES IN AND WON`T AMOUNT TO MUCH BY THE TIME IT GETS
HERE. IT WILL SLOW DOWN AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA...MOVING OUT TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A
ROUND OF ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...ONCE AGAIN MOSTLY NEAR THE COAST. IT STILL WON`T
AMOUNT TO MUCH THOUGH...FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN HERE. AN
OFFSHORE RIDGE WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...AND THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE IN RIGHT BEHIND IT...MOVING ONSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ONSHORE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND EC
SOLUTIONS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS SYSTEM.
IF THE GFS VERIFIES...THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF HEAVIER AND
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. IT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEM...BUT ONCE AGAIN NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. IF THE EC
VERIFIES WITH A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY...AND PRECIPITATION...WILL GO NORTH OF THE CWA WITH
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION DOWN HERE.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD EACH OTHER AND ARE IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE THURSDAY FORECAST THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS
AGO. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES. THE ECMWF HAS A
SLIGHTLY WETTER AND COLDER SOLUTION BUT THE GENERAL PATTERN IS
THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WITH A SNOW LEVEL AROUND 4000 TO 4500 FEET. THE
PROBABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST IN COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES NORTHWARD
WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WAS REDUCED ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
A RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON
COAST. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AND BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO BRIEFLY PUSH THE STORM TRACK NORTH OF OUR AREA. DW
MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT THAT A TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE CWA
FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG SOUTH WINDS IN THE MARINE WATERS WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AS THE FRONT PASSES
OVER. IF THE FRONT MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AS IT MAKES LANDFALL,
INLAND AREAS MAY ALSO RECEIVE SOME PRECIPITATION LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE MEDFORD CWA,
THUS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG THE COAST, THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND
EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY.
A RIDGE BUILDS IN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY
EARLY IN THE WEEK. EXPECT WINDS TO TURN EASTERLY AS PRESSURE INLAND
RISES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT, OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST WHERE A SLIGHT BROOKINGS
EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO BRING TEMPERATURES TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. -MSC
AVIATION...FOR THE 31/18Z TAF CYCLE...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY
VFR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS...INCLUDING MVFR WITH
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS AND ALSO SMALL HAIL
AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST
INTO THE EVENING. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
CASCADES WITH A FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 2500 FT MSL. CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR LIKELY TO PERSIST LONGEST AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCAL VALLEY
IFR IN COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES. -DW
MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PST SUN 31 JAN 2016...NORTH WINDS WILL PEAK
AT TO 20-25 KT BEYOND 10 NM FROM SHORE WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE
INNER WATERS AND AROUND 10-15 KT WITHIN A FEW MILES OF SHORE.
HOWEVER, THE COMBINATION OF WEST SWELL AND WIND WAVE WILL KEEP STEEP
SEAS IN PLACE OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ALL OF THIS
DIMINISHES LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS EASE, AND MONDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY
QUIET WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MODERATE WINDS AND STEEP SEAS AGAIN TUESDAY, WHICH WE WILL
ADDRESS AFTER THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ENDS. A MUCH STRONGER
FRONT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE SOUTH GALES AND VERY STEEP
COMBINED SEAS. IN FACT, LATEST GUIDANCE ALL AGREE ON THIS FRONT, SO
THE ONLY REMAINING ISSUE IS THE TIMING OF THE STRONGEST WINDS, NOT
THEIR OCCURRENCE. GALE AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO LIKELY BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HEAVY WEST SWELL. -WRIGHT
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM PST MONDAY FOR ORZ021-022.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY
FOR PZZ370-376.
$$
FJB/DW/TRW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
451 PM EST MON FEB 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS
EVENING...THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATER
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...PUSHING A TRAILING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE ON THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT IS CLIPPING MY SOUTHERN BORDER COUNTIES AS OF 21Z. HRRR TIMING
SUGGESTS THE LAST OF THE RAIN WILL EXIT LANCASTER CO BY ARND 7 PM.
HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRIER AIR MASS WILL NOSE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND ALLOWING TEMPS TO
DROP BACK INTO THE 20S. BUT LOWS WILL STILL BE SOME 5-10 DEG
MILDER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
OTHER THAN SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...TUESDAY WILL REMAIN FAIR AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 40S...TO NEAR 50F ACROSS SOME OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A BROAD...LONGWAVE
TROF PATTERN IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES EARLY IN THIS WEEK. THE TROF IS FORECAST TO BE
PROGRESSIVE...AIDED BY AND RE-PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY...CROSSING THE PLAINS MIDWEEK AND REACHING THE OH/TN
VALLEYS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THINGS DRYING OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH FOCUS SHIFTING TO STRONG STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
TRACK FROM THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
INTO EASTERN CANADA. CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF
THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL DRAMATICALLY REDUCE THE CURRENT SNOWPACK
OVER SOUTHERN MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY.
MODEL BLENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIP ON
WEDNESDAY AND MAINTAINED HIGH POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO BE FOCUSING A MOD-HVY RAINFALL AXIS ALONG AND TO THE
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHICH SEEMS TIED TO STRONG H85 MSTR FLUX
ANOMS CENTERED WITHIN 40-50KT SWLY PRE-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL JET. THE
FRONTAL BAND PCPN COULD BE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WITH WARM SECTOR
PROGGED TO SURGE WELL INTO NEW ENGLAND. FCST MAX TEMPS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE 48-58F RANGE WHICH COULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY.
ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD A DECENT SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
MIDWEEK SYSTEM STARTING THURSDAY /WITH A QUICK SHOT FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/ FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
POST FRONTAL CIGS REMAIN MVFR OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM THE
LAURELS NORTHWARD...WHILE MAINLY BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN
3000-10000` AFFECT THE REMAINING TERMINALS OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN FLYING AREA. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL AREA OF VISIBILITIES IN
THE 3-5 MILE RANGE ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
TRACKING THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF
BY EVENING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO VFR AT ALL
SITES EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...VFR. RAIN/MVFR-IFR CIGS/LLWS DEVELOPING TUESDAY NIGHT.
WED...MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR. RAIN SHOWERS. LLWS. GUSTY WINDS
25+KT FROM 160-190 DEGREES SHIFTING TO 270-300 WED PM BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.
THU...MVFR CIGS/SCT -SHSN WEST. VFR CENTRAL-EAST. LIGHTER WINDS.
FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
LATEST MODEL ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
POTENTIAL RISK FOR SMALL STREAM FLOODING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY/FEBRUARY 3-4. MARFC IS
HIGHLIGHTING THIS THREAT IN THEIR SIGNIFICANT FLOOD OUTLOOK. THE
MAIN AREA OF CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS ACROSS THE JUNIATA AND LOWER
MAIN STEM SUSQUEHANNA BASINS. THE FLOOD RISK WILL BE A COMBINATION
OF SNOWMELT/SATURATED GROUND AND FORECAST MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ056-057-059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
403 PM EST MON FEB 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...PUSHING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE ON THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT IS CLIPPING MY SOUTHERN BORDER COUNTIES...AS EARLIER
ADVERTISED BY THE HRRR AND RAP. THE TIMING SUGGESTS THE RAIN
TAPERING OFF BETWEEN ABOUT 3 AND 6 PM WITH GENERAL DRYING SETTING
IN AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
OTHERWISE MOST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT UNDER INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE
ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE 20S. BUT LOWS WILL STILL BE
SOME 5-10 DEG MILDER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
OTHER THAN SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...TUESDAY WILL REMAIN FAIR AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 40S...TO NEAR 50F ACROSS SOME OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A BROAD...LONGWAVE
TROF PATTERN IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES EARLY IN THIS WEEK. THE TROF IS FORECAST TO BE
PROGRESSIVE...AIDED BY AND RE-PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY...CROSSING THE PLAINS MIDWEEK AND REACHING THE OH/TN
VALLEYS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THINGS DRYING OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH FOCUS SHIFTING TO STRONG STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
TRACK FROM THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
INTO EASTERN CANADA. CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF
THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL DRAMATICALLY REDUCE THE CURRENT SNOWPACK
OVER SOUTHERN MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY.
MODEL BLENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIP ON
WEDNESDAY AND MAINTAINED HIGH POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO BE FOCUSING A MOD-HVY RAINFALL AXIS ALONG AND TO THE
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHICH SEEMS TIED TO STRONG H85 MSTR FLUX
ANOMS CENTERED WITHIN 40-50KT SWLY PRE-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL JET. THE
FRONTAL BAND PCPN COULD BE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WITH WARM SECTOR
PROGGED TO SURGE WELL INTO NEW ENGLAND. FCST MAX TEMPS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE 48-58F RANGE WHICH COULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY.
ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD A DECENT SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
MIDWEEK SYSTEM STARTING THURSDAY /WITH A QUICK SHOT FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/ FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
POST FRONTAL CIGS REMAIN MVFR OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM THE
LAURELS NORTHWARD...WHILE MAINLY BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN
3000-10000` AFFECT THE REMAINING TERMINALS OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN FLYING AREA. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL AREA OF VISIBILITIES IN
THE 3-5 MILE RANGE ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
TRACKING THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF
BY EVENING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO VFR AT ALL
SITES EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...VFR. RAIN/MVFR-IFR CIGS/LLWS DEVELOPING TUESDAY NIGHT.
WED...MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR. RAIN SHOWERS. LLWS. GUSTY WINDS
25+KT FROM 160-190 DEGREES SHIFTING TO 270-300 WED PM BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.
THU...MVFR CIGS/SCT -SHSN WEST. VFR CENTRAL-EAST. LIGHTER WINDS.
FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
LATEST MODEL ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
POTENTIAL RISK FOR SMALL STREAM FLOODING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY/FEBRUARY 3-4. MARFC IS
HIGHLIGHTING THIS THREAT IN THEIR SIGNIFICANT FLOOD OUTLOOK. THE
MAIN AREA OF CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS ACROSS THE JUNIATA AND LOWER
MAIN STEM SUSQUEHANNA BASINS. THE FLOOD RISK WILL BE A COMBINATION
OF SNOWMELT/SATURATED GROUND AND FORECAST MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ056-057-059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
217 PM EST MON FEB 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...PUSHING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE ON THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT IS CLIPPING MY SOUTHERN BORDER COUNTIES...AS EARLIER
ADVERTISED BY THE HRRR AND RAP. THE TIMING SUGGESTS THE RAIN
TAPERING OFF BETWEEN ABOUT 3 AND 6 PM WITH GENERAL DRYING SETTING
IN AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
OTHERWISE MOST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT UNDER INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE
ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE 20S. BUT LOWS WILL STILL BE
SOME 5-10 DEG MILDER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
OTHER THAN SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...TUESDAY WILL REMAIN FAIR AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 40S...TO NEAR 50F ACROSS SOME OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPANSIVE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...COMBINING THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS OF THE MAIN JET...STRETCHES FROM COAST TO COAST
THIS WEEKEND. THE FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A
BROAD...LONGWAVE TROF PATTERN IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE TROF IS FORECAST
TO BE PROGRESSIVE...AIDED BY AND RE-PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY...CROSSING THE PLAINS MIDWEEK AND REACHING THE OH/TN
VALLEYS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THINGS DRYING OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH FOCUS SHIFTING TO STRONG STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
TRACK FROM THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
INTO EASTERN CANADA. CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF
THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL DRAMATICALLY REDUCE THE CURRENT SNOWPACK
OVER SOUTHERN MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY.
MODEL BLENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIP ON
WEDNESDAY AND MAINTAINED HIGH POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO BE FOCUSING A MOD-HVY RAINFALL AXIS ALONG AND TO THE
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHICH SEEMS TIED TO STRONG H85 MSTR FLUX
ANOMS CENTERED WITHIN 40-50KT SWLY PRE-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL JET. THE
FRONTAL BAND PCPN COULD BE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WITH WARM SECTOR
PROGGED TO SURGE WELL INTO NEW ENGLAND. FCST MAX TEMPS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE 48-58F RANGE WHICH COULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY.
ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD A DECENT SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
MIDWEEK SYSTEM STARTING THURSDAY /WITH A QUICK SHOT FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/ FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
POST FRONTAL CIGS REMAIN MVFR OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM THE
LAURELS NORTHWARD...WHILE MAINLY BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN
3000-10000` AFFECT THE REMAINING TERMINALS OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN FLYING AREA. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL AREA OF VISIBILITIES IN
THE 3-5 MILE RANGE ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
TRACKING THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF
BY EVENING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO VFR AT ALL
SITES EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...VFR. RAIN/MVFR-IFR CIGS/LLWS DEVELOPING TUESDAY NIGHT.
WED...MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR. RAIN SHOWERS. LLWS. GUSTY WINDS
25+KT FROM 160-190 DEGREES SHIFTING TO 270-300 WED PM BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.
THU...MVFR CIGS/SCT -SHSN WEST. VFR CENTRAL-EAST. LIGHTER WINDS.
FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
LATEST MODEL ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
POTENTIAL RISK FOR SMALL STREAM FLOODING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY/FEBRUARY 3-4. MARFC IS
HIGHLIGHTING THIS THREAT IN THEIR SIGNIFICANT FLOOD OUTLOOK. THE
MAIN AREA OF CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS ACROSS THE JUNIATA AND LOWER
MAIN STEM SUSQUEHANNA BASINS. THE FLOOD RISK WILL BE A COMBINATION
OF SNOWMELT/SATURATED GROUND AND FORECAST MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ056-057-059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE
HYDROLOGY...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
147 PM EST MON FEB 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...PUSHING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE ON THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT IS CLIPPING MY SOUTHERN BORDER COUNTIES...AS EARLIER
ADVERTISED BY THE HRRR AND RAP. THE TIMING SUGGESTS THE RAIN
TAPERING OFF BETWEEN ABOUT 3 AND 6 PM WITH GENERAL DRYING SETTING
IN AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
OTHERWISE MOST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT UNDER INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE
ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE 20S. BUT LOWS WILL STILL BE
SOME 5-10 DEG MILDER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
OTHER THAN SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...TUESDAY WILL REMAIN FAIR AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 40S...TO NEAR 50F ACROSS SOME OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPANSIVE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...COMBINING THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS OF THE MAIN JET...STRETCHES FROM COAST TO COAST
THIS WEEKEND. THE FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A
BROAD...LONGWAVE TROF PATTERN IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE TROF IS FORECAST
TO BE PROGRESSIVE...AIDED BY AND RE-PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY...CROSSING THE PLAINS MIDWEEK AND REACHING THE OH/TN
VALLEYS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THINGS DRYING OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH FOCUS SHIFTING TO STRONG STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
TRACK FROM THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
INTO EASTERN CANADA. CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF
THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL DRAMATICALLY REDUCE THE CURRENT SNOWPACK
OVER SOUTHERN MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY.
MODEL BLENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIP ON
WEDNESDAY AND MAINTAINED HIGH POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO BE FOCUSING A MOD-HVY RAINFALL AXIS ALONG AND TO THE
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHICH SEEMS TIED TO STRONG H85 MSTR FLUX
ANOMS CENTERED WITHIN 40-50KT SWLY PRE-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL JET. THE
FRONTAL BAND PCPN COULD BE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WITH WARM SECTOR
PROGGED TO SURGE WELL INTO NEW ENGLAND. FCST MAX TEMPS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE 48-58F RANGE WHICH COULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY.
ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD A DECENT SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
MIDWEEK SYSTEM STARTING THURSDAY /WITH A QUICK SHOT FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/ FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
POST FRONTAL CIGS REMAIN MVFR OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM THE
LAURELS NORTHWARD...WHILE MAINLY BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN
3000-10000` AFFECT THE REMAINING TERMINALS OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN FLYING AREA. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL AREA OF VISIBILITIES IN
THE 3-5 MILE RANGE ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
TRACKING THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF
BY EVENING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO VFR AT ALL
SITES EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...VFR. RAIN/MVFR-IFR CIGS/LLWS DEVELOPING TUESDAY NIGHT.
WED...MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR. RAIN SHOWERS. LLWS. GUSTY WINDS
25+KT FROM 160-190 DEGREES SHIFTING TO 270-300 WED PM BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.
THU...MVFR CIGS/SCT -SHSN WEST. VFR CENTRAL-EAST. LIGHTER WINDS.
FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST MODEL ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS /MIFFS/ CONTINUE TO
INDICATE POTENTIAL RISK FOR SMALL STREAM FLOODING ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY/FEBRUARY 3-4.
MARFC IS HIGHLIGHTING THIS THREAT IN THEIR SIGNIFICANT FLOOD
OUTLOOK. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS ACROSS THE
JUNIATA AND LOWER MAIN STEM SUSQUEHANNA BASINS. THE FLOOD RISK
WILL BE A COMBINATION OF SNOWMELT/SATURATED GROUND AND FORECAST
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WE ARE ASSESSING THE FLOOD
POTENTIAL AND MAY CONSIDER ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH LATER TODAY.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1118 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...PUSHING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MESO ANAL INDICATES THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED LANCASTER COUNTY
WITH A NW FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE.
BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK WAVE TO FORM ON THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT AND CAUSE AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN TO REDEVELOP
OVER MY FAR SRN COUNTIES ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE. THE HRRR AND
SREF ARE PRETTY AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SO I TRIED TO PAINT THE
CHANCE OF RAINS MOVING BACK IN FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. I
MAY YET BE TOO LOW WITH THE POPS AND WILL HAVE TO ADJUST AS IT
BECOMES CLEARER WHETHER THE AREA OF RAIN CURRENTLY TRACKING
THROUGH WEST VA SLIDES DUE EAST STAYING SOUTH OF THE BORDER OR
NUDGES JUST A LITTLE NORTH AND AFFECTS THE BORDER COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...THE PM HOURS SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN
AND CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NW PA...AS DRIER
AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA.
TEMPS WEIGHTED ABOUT 75 PERCENT TWD NEW CONSENSUS BLENDED MODEL
GUIDANCE YIELD HIGHS IN THE 40S TODAY...SEVERAL DEG COOLER THAN
SUNDAY IN MOST LOCATIONS. EVEN GIVEN THE COOLER READINGS...THE
HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL AVERAGE SOME 5-10 DEG WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR
THE FIRST DAY OF FEBRUARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...BRINGING FAIR WEATHER WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST-NE
BREEZE. EXPECT JUST SOME SCATTERED ALTO CU AND CIRRUS CLOUDS
SPREADING OVER THE RIDGE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM 25-30F /;WHICH IS ABOUT 5-10F WARMER THAN NORMAL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND ABOUT 15 DEG
F ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS.
THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN LATER TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WILL HELP TO ADVECT THICKENING MULTI-
LAYERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.
LATEST BLENDED MULTI-MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE TIMING OF THE HIGH`S
DEPARTURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS TUESDAY AND
INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS SHOULD YIELD A HIGH TEMP IN THE
40S...TO NEAR 50F ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTH
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPANSIVE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...COMBINING THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS OF THE MAIN JET...STRETCHES FROM COAST TO COAST
THIS WEEKEND. THE FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A
BROAD...LONGWAVE TROF PATTERN IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE TROF IS FORECAST
TO BE PROGRESSIVE...AIDED BY AND RE-PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY...CROSSING THE PLAINS MIDWEEK AND REACHING THE OH/TN
VALLEYS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THINGS DRYING OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH FOCUS SHIFTING TO STRONG STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
TRACK FROM THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
INTO EASTERN CANADA. CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF
THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL DRAMATICALLY REDUCE THE CURRENT SNOWPACK
OVER SOUTHERN MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY.
MODEL BLENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIP ON
WEDNESDAY AND MAINTAINED HIGH POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO BE FOCUSING A MOD-HVY RAINFALL AXIS ALONG AND TO THE
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHICH SEEMS TIED TO STRONG H85 MSTR FLUX
ANOMS CENTERED WITHIN 40-50KT SWLY PRE-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL JET. THE
FRONTAL BAND PCPN COULD BE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WITH WARM SECTOR
PROGGED TO SURGE WELL INTO NEW ENGLAND. FCST MAX TEMPS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE 48-58F RANGE WHICH COULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY.
ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD A DECENT SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
MIDWEEK SYSTEM STARTING THURSDAY /WITH A QUICK SHOT FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/ FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POST FRONTAL CIGS REMAIN MVFR OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM THE
LAURELS NORTHWARD...WHILE MAINLY BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN
3000-10000` AFFECT THE REMAINING TERMINALS OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN FLYING AREA.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED BY THIS EVE WITH RETURN TO
VFR AT ALL SITES.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...VFR. RAIN/MVFR-IFR CIGS/LLWS DEVELOPING TUESDAY NIGHT.
WED...MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR. RAIN SHOWERS. LLWS. GUSTY WINDS
25+KT FROM 160-190 DEGREES SHIFTING TO 270-300 WED PM BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.
THU...MVFR CIGS/SCT -SHSN WEST. VFR CENTRAL-EAST. LIGHTER WINDS.
FRI...NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST MODEL ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS /MIFFS/ CONTINUE TO
INDICATE POTENTIAL RISK FOR SMALL STREAM FLOODING ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY/FEBRUARY 3-4.
MARFC IS HIGHLIGHTING THIS THREAT IN THEIR SIGNIFICANT FLOOD
OUTLOOK. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS ACROSS THE
JUNIATA AND LOWER MAIN STEM SUSQUEHANNA BASINS. THE FLOOD RISK
WILL BE A COMBINATION OF SNOWMELT/SATURATED GROUND AND FORECAST
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WE ARE ASSESSING THE FLOOD
POTENTIAL AND MAY CONSIDER ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH LATER TODAY.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
741 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...PUSHING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SLOWLY EASTWARD MOVING AND DWINDLING AREA OF SHOWERS WAS NOTED ON
REGIONAL 88D MOSAIC LOOP AT 10Z...ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDED FROM NEAR KBFD TO KPIT.
08Z HRRR /SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS/ SHOWS THE SHOWERS
DISSIPATING TO PRACTICALLY NOTHING AS THEY HEAD OFF THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU...AND INTO THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION OF THE
STATE...WHERE IN THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING...THE
PRE AND POST FRONT SWRLY TO WNWRLY LLVL FLOW WILL HAVE A DECIDED
AND MODERATELY STRONG DOWNSLOPE/DRYING COMPONENT.
THE SHOWERS ARE SEEN TO REFORM ACROSS OUR FAR SE ZONES FOR A FEW
HOURS BETWEEN ABOUT 18-20Z TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TOWARD THE
NEW JERSEY COAST.
IT WILL START OFF CLOUDY TODAY WITH A CORRIDOR OF ISOLATED-SCT
/AND DIMINISHING/ SHOWERS WORKING FROM THE CENTRAL MTNS TOWARD
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
OTHERWISE...THE PM HOURS SHOULD BE DRY WITH GRADUALLY BRIGHTENING
SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NWRN PENN...AS DRIER AIR AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA.
TEMPS WEIGHTED ABOUT 75 PERCENT TWD NEW CONSENSUS BLENDED MODEL
GUIDANCE YIELD HIGHS IN THE 40S TODAY /SEVERAL DEG OR MORE COOLER
THAN SUNDAY IN MOST LOCATIONS/ EVEN GIVEN THE COOLER READINGS...
HE HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL AVERAGE SOME 5-10 DEG WARMER THAN NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST DAY OF FEBRUARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...BRINGING FAIR WEATHER WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST-NE
BREEZE. EXPECT JUST SOME SCATTERED ALTO CU AND CIRRUS CLOUDS
SPREADING OVER THE RIDGE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM 25-30F /;WHICH IS ABOUT 5-10F WARMER THAN NORMAL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND ABOUT 15 DEG
F ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS.
THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN LATER TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WILL HELP TO ADVECT THICKENING MULTI-
LAYERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.
LATEST BLENDED MULTI-MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE TIMING OF THE HIGH`S
DEPARTURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS TUESDAY AND
INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS SHOULD YIELD A HIGH TEMP IN THE
40S...TO NEAR 50F ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTH
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPANSIVE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...COMBINING THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS OF THE MAIN JET...STRETCHES FROM COAST TO COAST
THIS WEEKEND. THE FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A
BROAD...LONGWAVE TROF PATTERN IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE TROF IS FORECAST
TO BE PROGRESSIVE...AIDED BY AND RE-PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY...CROSSING THE PLAINS MIDWEEK AND REACHING THE OH/TN
VALLEYS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THINGS DRYING OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH FOCUS SHIFTING TO STRONG STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
TRACK FROM THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
INTO EASTERN CANADA. CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF
THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL DRAMATICALLY REDUCE THE CURRENT SNOWPACK
OVER SOUTHERN MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY.
MODEL BLENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIP ON
WEDNESDAY AND MAINTAINED HIGH POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO BE FOCUSING A MOD-HVY RAINFALL AXIS ALONG AND TO THE
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHICH SEEMS TIED TO STRONG H85 MSTR FLUX
ANOMS CENTERED WITHIN 40-50KT SWLY PRE-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL JET. THE
FRONTAL BAND PCPN COULD BE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WITH WARM SECTOR
PROGGED TO SURGE WELL INTO NEW ENGLAND. FCST MAX TEMPS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE 48-58F RANGE WHICH COULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY.
ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD A DECENT SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
MIDWEEK SYSTEM STARTING THURSDAY /WITH A QUICK SHOT FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/ FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POST FRONTAL CIGS BRIEFLY DIPPED INTO IFR RANGE BUT HAVE REBOUNDED
TO LOW MVFR AT BFD/JST. RADAR SHOWS BAND OF LIGHT RAIN PUSHING
E/SE FROM IPT-UNV-JST LINE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN BEFORE
REACHING MDT/LNS. SFC WIND GUSTS 20-25KT THIS MORNING WILL WEAKEN
BY AFTERNOON WITH MEAN FLOW FROM 280-310 DEGREES. DROPPED LLWS AS
LLJ HAS SHIFTED OUT OF THE AIRSPACE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FCST
BY THIS EVE WITH RETURN TO VFR AT ALL SITES.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...RAIN/MVFR-IFR CIGS/LLWS DEVELOPING TUESDAY NIGHT.
WED...MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR. RAIN SHOWERS. LLWS. GUSTY WINDS
25+KT FROM 160-190 DEGREES SHIFTING TO 270-300 WED PM BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.
THU...MVFR CIGS/SCT -SHSN WEST. VFR CENTRAL-EAST. LIGHTER WINDS.
FRI...NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST MODEL ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS /MMEFS/ CONTINUE TO INDICATE
POTENTIAL RISK FOR SMALL STREAM FLOODING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY/FEBRUARY 3-4. MARFC IS
HIGHLIGHTING THIS THREAT IN THEIR SIGNIFICANT FLOOD OUTLOOK. THE
MAIN AREA OF CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS ACROSS THE JUNIATA AND LOWER
MAIN STEM SUSQUEHANNA BASINS. THE FLOOD RISK WILL BE A COMBINATION
OF SNOWMELT/SATURATED GROUND AND FORECAST MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. WE ARE ASSESSING THE FLOOD POTENTIAL AND MAY
CONSIDER ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH LATER TODAY.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
HYDROLOGY...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
550 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...PUSHING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SLOWLY EASTWARD MOVING AND DWINDLING AREA OF SHOWERS WAS NOTED ON
REGIONAL 88D MOSAIC LOOP AT 10Z...ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDED FROM NEAR KBFD TO KPIT.
08Z HRRR /SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS/ SHOWS THE SHOWERS
DISSIPATING TO PRACTICALLY NOTHING AS THEY HEAD OFF THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU...AND INTO THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION OF THE
STATE...WHERE IN THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING...THE
PRE AND POST FRONT SWRLY TO WNWRLY LLVL FLOW WILL HAVE A DECIDED
AND MODERATELY STRONG DOWNSLOPE/DRYING COMPONENT.
THE SHOWERS ARE SEEN TO REFORM ACROSS OUR FAR SE ZONES FOR A FEW
HOURS BETWEEN ABOUT 18-20Z TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TOWARD THE
NEW JERSEY COAST.
IT WILL START OFF CLOUDY TODAY WITH A CORRIDOR OF ISOLATED-SCT
/AND DIMINISHING/ SHOWERS WORKING FROM THE CENTRAL MTNS TOWARD
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
OTHERWISE...THE PM HOURS SHOULD BE DRY WITH GRADUALLY BRIGHTENING
SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NWRN PENN...AS DRIER AIR AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA.
TEMPS WEIGHTED ABOUT 75 PERCENT TWD NEW CONSENSUS BLENDED MODEL
GUIDANCE YIELD HIGHS IN THE 40S TODAY /SEVERAL DEG OR MORE COOLER
THAN SUNDAY IN MOST LOCATIONS/ EVEN GIVEN THE COOLER READINGS...
HE HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL AVERAGE SOME 5-10 DEG WARMER THAN NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST DAY OF FEBRUARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...BRINGING FAIR WEATHER WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST-NE
BREEZE. EXPECT JUST SOME SCATTERED ALTO CU AND CIRRUS CLOUDS
SPREADING OVER THE RIDGE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM 25-30F /;WHICH IS ABOUT 5-10F WARMER THAN NORMAL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND ABOUT 15 DEG
F ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS.
THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN LATER TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WILL HELP TO ADVECT THICKENING MULTI-
LAYERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.
LATEST BLENDED MULTI-MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE TIMING OF THE HIGH`S
DEPARTURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS TUESDAY AND
INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS SHOULD YIELD A HIGH TEMP IN THE
40S...TO NEAR 50F ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTH
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPANSIVE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...COMBINING THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS OF THE MAIN JET...STRETCHES FROM COAST TO COAST
THIS WEEKEND. THE FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A
BROAD...LONGWAVE TROF PATTERN IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE TROF IS FORECAST
TO BE PROGRESSIVE...AIDED BY AND RE-PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY...CROSSING THE PLAINS MIDWEEK AND REACHING THE OH/TN
VALLEYS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THINGS DRYING OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH FOCUS SHIFTING TO STRONG STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
TRACK FROM THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
INTO EASTERN CANADA. CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF
THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL DRAMATICALLY REDUCE THE CURRENT SNOWPACK
OVER SOUTHERN MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY.
MODEL BLENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIP ON
WEDNESDAY AND MAINTAINED HIGH POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO BE FOCUSING A MOD-HVY RAINFALL AXIS ALONG AND TO THE
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHICH SEEMS TIED TO STRONG H85 MSTR FLUX
ANOMS CENTERED WITHIN 40-50KT SWLY PRE-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL JET. THE
FRONTAL BAND PCPN COULD BE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WITH WARM SECTOR
PROGGED TO SURGE WELL INTO NEW ENGLAND. FCST MAX TEMPS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE 48-58F RANGE WHICH COULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY.
ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD A DECENT SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
MIDWEEK SYSTEM STARTING THURSDAY /WITH A QUICK SHOT FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/ FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BAND OF RAIN ALONG COLD FRONT OVER THE NW AIRSPACE SHOULD WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES EAST THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR TO HOLD FOR THE MOST
PART OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SITES. GFS-BASED GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TOO PESSIMISTIC RECENTLY AND SEEMS OVERDONE WITH IFR VIS INVOF
MDT/LNS. POST FRONTAL CIGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR FOR A
TIME TOWARD DAYBREAK. BEHIND FROPA SFC WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING FROM
200-240 TO 280-320 WITH 15-20KT GUSTS DIMINISHING. STRONG WSW LLJ
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL KEEP LLWS MENTION UNTL 09-12Z BEFORE
WEAKENING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS FCST BY THIS EVE WITH RETURN TO
VFR AT ALL SITES.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...MAINLY VFR. RAIN...SUB-VFR CIGS AND LLWS DEVELOPING TUESDAY
NIGHT.
WED...MVFR/IFR. RAIN SHOWERS. LLWS. GUSTY WINDS 25+KT FROM
160-190 DEGREES SHIFTING TO 270-300 WED PM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
THU...MVFR CIGS/SCT -SHSN WEST. VFR CENTRAL-EAST. LIGHTER WINDS.
FRI...NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST MODEL ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS /MMEFS/ FOR THE GEFS AND
NAEFS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY/FEBRUARY 3-4.
MARFC ALSO ISSUED A FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR THIS AREA. THE MAIN AREA OF
CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS ACROSS THE JUNIATA AND LOWER MAIN STEM
SUSQUEHANNA BASINS WHERE SNOWMELT RATES WILL BE INCREASING DUE TO
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MILD/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE FLOOD
RISK WILL BE A COMBINATION OF SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL. MINOR FLOOD
RISK FOR THE SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS IS HIGHLIGHTED IN HWO AND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
HYDROLOGY...STEINBUGL/LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
204 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...PUSHING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
CENTRAL PA IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF LOW OVR THE GRT LKS THIS
EVENING. AT 07Z...A NEARLY SOLID...20NM WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS
WAS LOCATED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDED FROM NEAR CYYZ TO KCLE AND KCMH.
05Z HRRR SHOWS THIS RIBBON OF SHOWERS STAYING CONFINED TO MAINLY
THE NW MTNS THROUGH 09Z...BEFORE BECOMING MUCH MORE FRAGMENTED
NEAR THE I-99/RT 220 CORRIDOR AROUND 11Z...THEN DISSIPATING FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
TRACKS SE ACROSS THE CWA.
MADE JUST A FEW UPWARD MODIFICATIONS TO POPS AND TEMPS ACROSS THE
NW HALF OF THE CWA EARLY TODAY. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT RUNNING
TEXT FORECAST AND NEAR TERM GRIDDED FIELDS LOOK IN DECENT SHAPE.
LATEST GEFS/SREF BOTH SUPPORT NEAR 100 PCT POPS ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...DUE IN PART TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN SW FLOW AND ALSO BECAUSE
THIS PART OF THE STATE WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE NOSE OF A STRONG
SWRLY LLJ...AND THE PARENT SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE E GRT
LKS. DOWNSLOPING WSW FLOW AND WANING LG SCALE FORCING WILL CAUSE
BAND OF FRONTAL SHOWERS TO DIMINISH MARKEDLY AS THEY PUSH INTO THE
CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY COUNTIES TOWARD DAWN.
06Z SFC ANALYSIS EXHIBITING THE NOW FAMILIAR PATTERN COLDEST
TEMPS ACROSS THE SCENT MTNS AND LOWER-MID SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE THE
DEEPER SNOW COVER AND LIGHT WIND HAVE ALLOWED READINGS TO FALL
INTO THE L-M 30S IN SOME LOCATIONS...WHILE A SW BREEZE IS HOLDING
READINGS NR 50F ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND SW BREEZE SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE W
MTNS UNTIL ARRIVAL OF COLD FRONT LATE. OVER THE SE COUNTIES...
EXPECT READINGS TO SLOWLY RISE TO ARND 40F BY DAWN UPON ARRIVAL OF
CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
IT WILL START OFF CLOUDY TODAY WITH A CORRIDOR OF ISOLATED-SCT
/AND DIMINISHING/ SHOWERS WORKING FROM THE CENTRAL MTNS TOWARD
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY ALONG COLD FRONT. LATEST MDL DATA SUGGESTS A
FEW -SHRA COULD LINGER ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES INTO EARLY AFTN.
OTHERWISE...THE PM HOURS SHOULD BE DRY WITH GRADUALLY BRIGHTENING
SKIES...AS DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA.
HIGHS TODAY WILL AVERAGE IN THE 40S. WHILE SEVERAL DEG COOLER
THAN TODAY IN MOST LOCATIONS...MAX`S WILL STILL AVERAGE SOME 5-10
DEG WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF FEBRUARY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPANSIVE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...COMBINING THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS OF THE MAIN JET...STRETCHES FROM COAST TO COAST
THIS WEEKEND. THE FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A
BROAD...LONGWAVE TROF PATTERN IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE TROF IS FORECAST
TO BE PROGRESSIVE...AIDED BY AND RE-PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY...CROSSING THE PLAINS MIDWEEK AND REACHING THE OH/TN
VALLEYS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THINGS DRYING OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH FOCUS SHIFTING TO STRONG STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
TRACK FROM THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
INTO EASTERN CANADA. CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF
THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL DRAMATICALLY REDUCE THE CURRENT SNOWPACK
OVER SOUTHERN MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY.
MODEL BLENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIP ON
WEDNESDAY AND MAINTAINED HIGH POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO BE FOCUSING A MOD-HVY RAINFALL AXIS ALONG AND TO THE
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHICH SEEMS TIED TO STRONG H85 MSTR FLUX
ANOMS CENTERED WITHIN 40-50KT SWLY PRE-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL JET. THE
FRONTAL BAND PCPN COULD BE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WITH WARM SECTOR
PROGGED TO SURGE WELL INTO NEW ENGLAND. FCST MAX TEMPS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE 48-58F RANGE WHICH COULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY.
ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD A DECENT SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
MIDWEEK SYSTEM STARTING THURSDAY /WITH A QUICK SHOT FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/ FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BAND OF RAIN ALONG COLD FRONT OVER THE NW AIRSPACE SHOULD WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES EAST THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR TO HOLD FOR THE MOST
PART OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SITES. GFS-BASED GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TOO PESSIMISTIC RECENTLY AND SEEMS OVERDONE WITH IFR VIS INVOF
MDT/LNS. POST FRONTAL CIGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR FOR A
TIME TOWARD DAYBREAK. BEHIND FROPA SFC WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING FROM
200-240 TO 280-320 WITH 15-20KT GUSTS DIMINISHING. STRONG WSW LLJ
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL KEEP LLWS MENTION UNTL 09-12Z BEFORE
WEAKENING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS FCST BY THIS EVE WITH RETURN TO
VFR AT ALL SITES.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...MAINLY VFR. RAIN...SUB-VFR CIGS AND LLWS DEVELOPING TUESDAY
NIGHT.
WED...MVFR/IFR. RAIN SHOWERS. LLWS. GUSTY WINDS 25+KT FROM
160-190 DEGREES SHIFTING TO 270-300 WED PM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
THU...MVFR CIGS/SCT -SHSN WEST. VFR CENTRAL-EAST. LIGHTER WINDS.
FRI...NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST MODEL ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS /MMEFS/ FOR THE GEFS AND
NAEFS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY/FEBRUARY 3-4.
MARFC ALSO ISSUED A FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR THIS AREA. THE MAIN AREA OF
CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS ACROSS THE JUNIATA AND LOWER MAIN STEM
SUSQUEHANNA BASINS WHERE SNOWMELT RATES WILL BE INCREASING DUE TO
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MILD/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE FLOOD
RISK WILL BE A COMBINATION OF SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL. MINOR FLOOD
RISK FOR THE SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS IS HIGHLIGHTED IN HWO AND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
HYDROLOGY...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
232 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AT THIS TIME
WITH SHOWERS ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE HAS A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES IN WESTERN TENNESSEE BUT NONE SO FAR HERE IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE MID STATE TODAY AND
PULL UP DOWN ALONG THE ALABAMA BORDER AROUND 00Z BEFORE RETURNING
TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT AND BE NORTH OF THE MID STATE ON TUESDAY.
COOLER TODAY BUT MUCH WARMER ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 IN
MANY AREAS.
POWERFUL UPPER JET IN SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE
LOW GETTING ORGANIZED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO DURING
THE DAY. THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE LOW TRACK BUT
REGARDLESS MID STATE IS WELL WITHIN WARM SECTOR COME TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. JET DYNAMICS ARE VERY STRONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SPEED MAX IN EXCESS OF 150 KNOTS AT 03Z TUESDAY EVENING FROM
ARKANSAS TO INDIANA. MID LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF 120 KNOTS WITH
60 TO 70 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. SURFACE LOW UNDERGOES CYCLOGENSIS AS
IT MOVES NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO ILLINOIS. PARAMETERS WILL BE
SET FOR SEVERE WEATHER HERE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE TUESDAY EVENING
WHICH WILL CONTINUE PAST MIDNIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
MAIN THREAT HOWEVER A TWISTER OR TWO LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE. THE
SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER CLIMBS TO +2 IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
TUESDAY EVENING FROM 00Z TO 06Z.
AS FAR AS TIMING...EXPECT TO SEE A LINE OF CONVECTION (SQUALL
LINE) DOWN THROUGH EASTERN ARKANSAS AROUND 18Z (NOON) TUESDAY BUT
COULD BE DELAYED DEVELOPING DUE TO CAPPING. ONCE FORMED LINE WILL
WORK EAST INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AROUND 21Z (3 PM) AND ALONG THE
TENNESSEE RIVER BY 00Z (6 PM) AND THEN IT LOOKS LIKE THE LINE
SLOWS EASTWARD MOVEMENT THROUGH WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE BUT
SHOULD BE NEARING INTERSTATE 65 BY MIDNIGHT AND ALONG PLATEAU BY 09Z
(3 AM).
DRY WITH MORE TYPICAL WINTER TIME TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
BNA/CKV/CSV...SURFACE FRONT HAS ALMOST REACHED LAND-BETWEEN-THE-
LAKES, STILL WITH VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY HAVING FORMED AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW ECHOES INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS
THE FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD, SO WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE SHRA IN THE
TAF`S, ESPECIALLY FOR BNA & CSV, AS THE MODELS HINT THAT POP`S
WILL INCREASE IN AREAS FURTHER DOWNSTREAM FROM THE CURRENT
FRONTAL POSITION. EXPECT CIGS TO DROP ACCORDINGLY, LIKELY
REMAINING VFR AT CKV BUT BECOMING AT LEAST MVFR AT BNA & CSV FOR
SEVERAL HOURS LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 60 51 70 44 52 / 60 10 50 90 20
CLARKSVILLE 56 49 69 43 49 / 20 10 70 80 10
CROSSVILLE 57 48 66 49 51 / 70 20 30 90 30
COLUMBIA 61 53 69 44 51 / 60 20 60 90 10
LAWRENCEBURG 61 53 69 45 52 / 60 20 50 90 10
WAVERLY 57 52 70 42 50 / 30 20 80 90 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........07
LONG TERM..................01/BOYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
308 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM CINCINNATI TO
BOWLING GREEN TO JUST EAST OF MEMPHIS. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOWING UP FROM TIME TO TIME. CURRENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED UP ACROSS THE AREA THANKS
TO CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3
AM...ARE MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WHICH ARE HIGHER THAN THE
AVERAGE HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
FOR TODAY...THE COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RACES OFF QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL TAKE ON MORE OF A EAST TO WEST ORIENTATION
AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. PW
VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 1 INCH BY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS
WELL OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. THEREFORE...EXPECT
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SOME OF THE
MODELS INDICATE A LITTLE WEAK INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE
UPPER SUPPORT IS EXITING SO HAVE JUST GONE WITH SHOWERS FOR NOW. THE
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH UPPER FLOW
CONTINUING TO BE PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AS SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE LOWER LEVELS REMAIN SATURATED WITH
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL ALSO SETUP THE
CONDITIONS FOR FOG TO DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SHOULD SEE A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
REACH INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE STRONG 850MB WINDS. EXPECT
WINDS TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 50
TO 60 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. WILL LIKELY NEED A WIND ADVISORY OR HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. ALSO OF CONCERN WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH. THERE WILL BE LITTLE INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH BUT GOOD SPEED SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. IF ANY OF THESE STORMS CAN REACH INTO
THE STRONG 850MB WINDS...THEY COULD PRODUCE STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS
AND A STRAY SEVERE STORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
ROTATES IN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT. WILL BE UNDER DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING ON SATURDAY. FOR
SUNDAY...MODELS HINTING AT A TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA...BUT FOR
NOW WILL LEAVE DRY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES....EXPECT VERY WARM
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BEHIND THE FRONT
AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...WE SHOULD GENERALLY SEE NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 67 54 69 54 / 50 30 30 100
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 63 49 67 53 / 80 20 20 90
OAK RIDGE, TN 61 49 67 53 / 80 20 20 90
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 59 44 64 52 / 80 30 20 70
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
MA/MJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1114 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS WAS
PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST MIDDLE TN SHORTLY AFTER 8 PM THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS WAS LOCATED FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST, NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, ALONG A COLD FRONT.
STILL LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES BY 06Z, AND IN THE NASHVILLE AREA BY 09Z, AND PUSH INTO
SOUTHERN AND EASTER AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY IN MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT, ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS TO MORE CLOSELY REFLECT LATEST TRENDS
AND FORECAST MOVEMENT OF COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
EVEN THOUGH POPS AND OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS REMAIN PRETTY MUCH
UNCHANGED, WILL GO AHEAD AND UPDATE PRODUCT SUITE TO CATCH THESE
MINOR CHANGES IN THE MORE DISCRIMINATING PRODUCTS, LIKE THE PFM
AND AFM.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
BNA/CKV/CSV...SURFACE FRONT HAS ALMOST REACHED LAND-BETWEEN-THE-
LAKES, STILL WITH VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY HAVING FORMED AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW ECHOES INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS
THE FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD, SO WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE SHRA IN THE
TAF`S, ESPECIALLY FOR BNA & CSV, AS THE MODELS HINT THAT POP`S
WILL INCREASE IN AREAS FURTHER DOWNSTREAM FROM THE CURRENT
FRONTAL POSITION. EXPECT CIGS TO DROP ACCORDINGLY, LIKELY
REMAINING VFR AT CKV BUT BECOMING AT LEAST MVFR AT BNA & CSV FOR
SEVERAL HOURS LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........08
LONG TERM..................19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1126 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016
.UPDATE...
WE ARE ISSUING ONE MORE MINOR UPDATE TO REMOVE THE AREAS OF
MORNING FOG ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS. OTHERWISE...THE RED
FLAG WARNING FOR EASTLAND AND STEPHENS COUNTIES CONTINUES THIS
AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES.
THE SKY CONDITION AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING
WITH STRONG WAA THROUGH 850MB CONTINUING...BUT COMPETING WITH
LARGE AREAS OF STRATUS MOVING NORTH...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FIRST BATCH CURRENTLY MOVING NORTH OF THE I-20/I-30 CORRIDORS
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35W. STRONGER MIXING HAS ERODED SOME OF THE
STRATUS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...BUT MORE IS MOVING NORTH FROM
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK UP
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS MORE SUNSHINE
SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
05/
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1013 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016/
GULF MOISTURE SURGING RAPIDLY NORTH WITH A WARM FRONT THIS
MORNING. IFR CIGS AND FOG AROUND ACT TAF SITE THIS MORNING.
RAP/HRRR SEEM TO BE THE ONLY MODELS PICKING UP ON THE CURRENT
TRENDS.
MVFR CIGS NOW APPROACHING THE METROPLEX TAF SITES...THE WESTERN
EDGE WILL TEND TO ERODE. HAVE MVFR CIGS IN ALL METROPLEX TAFS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT IS LOWER FOR WESTERN SITES
THAN EASTERN SITES. OTHERWISE LIGHT EAST WIND NOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 15-20KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON.
WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A
FEW BRIEF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH VFR BEHIND THE FRONT
AND WESTERLY WIND AROUND 15KT WILL PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY. MAV/LAV
GUIDANCE LOOKS A LITTLE HIGH WITH WEST WIND TUESDAY MORNING BASED
ON THE FLOW AT 850MB AND A SURFACE LOW TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE
TAF SITES. DO NOT ANTICIPATE CROSSWIND IMPACTS FOR DFW TUESDAY.
TA..50
&&
.UPDATE...
A STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING AND
WILL LIKELY REACH THE I-20/I-30 CORRIDORS LATE THIS MORNING OR BY
MIDDAY. THIS MAY HAVE SOME EFFECT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES. HRRR AND SREF MODELS SEEM
TO LOCK ON TO THE STRATUS WELL...WHILE OTHERS WERE TOO OPTIMISTIC.
AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH 10 AM...BEFORE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES HELP DISPERSE ANY FOG. LOOKING AT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR THOSE MODELS INDICATE THAT THOUGH CEILINGS WILL LIFT
WITH WARMING OF THE LOW LEVELS...DECKS WILL REMAIN BROKEN TO
OVERCAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.
WE HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 70S IN THE EAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LACK OF INSOLATION AS COMPARED TO EARLIER...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE FAR WEST WHERE SOME
VEERING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED. WE WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR EASTLAND AND
STEPHENS COUNTIES. A GRASS FIRE DANGER STATEMENT CONTINUES AS FAR
EAST AS A BOWIE...TO WEATHERFORD...TO LAMPASAS LINE FOR LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES ...DRIER FUELS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS 15-20 MPH ELSEWHERE.
05/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016/
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING FELT COMPARED TO THIS TIME
YESTERDAY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT...WHICH HAD
BECOME STATIONARY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. IN FACT IT LOOKS LIKE THE BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY BEGUN
TO LIFT NORTH IN RESPONSE TO LEE ROCKIES CYCLOGENESIS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES.
THE UPPER LOW CAN BE SEEN MARCHING EASTWARD ON SATELLITE AND IS
PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD ADVANCE TODAY...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES CAN EXPECT FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING
AS THE MOISTURE RICH AIR ALONG THE FRONT CREEPS IN FROM THE SOUTH.
FOG SHOULD HANG AROUND UNTIL LATE MORNING BUT QUICKLY BURN OFF BY
MIDDAY.
AS FOR THE DEVELOPING STORM OUT WEST...A DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL
ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND LEADING TO A WARM AND
WINDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL KICK IN AS THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES LIFTS QUICKLY NORTH
LATER THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH FIRE
DANGER ACROSS THE WEST WHERE THE WARMEST AND DRIEST CONDITIONS
WILL RESIDE. THE TIMING WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS A DRYLINE NUDGES INTO THE AREA...CREATING MORE OF A
SOUTHWEST WIND COMPONENT ALONG WITH WARMER...DRIER AIR. WE HAVE
DECIDED THAT A RED FLAG WARNING IS NECESSARY FOR THE WESTERN-MOST
COUNTIES FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHERE A WINDOW OF
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE.
A COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE DRY LINE THIS EVENING AS THE STORM
SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE OK PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST
KS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO
DRY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE FRONT...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IT STILL APPEARS THAT
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE...SO ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED AND SUB-SEVERE.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
WITH COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND IT. A SECOND SURGE OF
COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY. GOOD COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH OVER THE AREA. WEDNESDAY/S
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE MORNING NEAR FREEZING AND STRUGGLE TO
REACH 50 IN MOST LOCATIONS THAT AFTERNOON. LIGHTER WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 30S SOUTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR-NORMAL BY FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS OVERHEAD. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVERHEAD LATE
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN THIS
WEEKEND.
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 73 49 62 34 50 / 5 10 10 5 5
WACO, TX 76 48 64 34 52 / 5 10 10 5 5
PARIS, TX 72 50 62 33 48 / 10 30 20 10 5
DENTON, TX 73 46 60 31 48 / 5 10 10 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 72 47 61 32 48 / 5 20 10 5 5
DALLAS, TX 73 50 62 35 50 / 5 20 10 5 5
TERRELL, TX 72 49 63 35 50 / 5 20 10 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 73 50 65 36 52 / 5 20 10 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 78 49 66 34 53 / 5 10 10 5 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 76 44 60 32 48 / 5 10 10 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ115-129.
&&
$$
/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1053 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016
.UPDATE...
STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CHURN TO OUR WEST. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BE A BIT SLOWER WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
HOWEVER...RAOB DATA DOES HINT AT THE WINDS BEING A BIT STRONGER THAN
THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THE RAOBS BETTER MATCH THE EXPECTATIONS OF
THE PAST FEW DAYS OF FORECAST DATA. AS OF 1030 AM...WINDS ARE JUST
NOW COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND TATUM WITH RAPID RAMP-UP.
FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK THOUGH THIS MORNING/S LIGHT
WINDS ARE A BIT DECEIVING. ...WAIT FOR IT...
GUIDANCE IN GFS/NAM HAS SHIFTED THE H5 WIND MAX ABOUT 60 NM
FURTHER SOUTH THAN DEPICTED YESTERDAY. THOUGH THE HRRR AND RUC
MAINTAIN SOLUTIONS WHICH ARE PARALLEL TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS
SHOULD SET UP A BLOWING DUST CORRIDOR FROM NEAR DENVER CITY TOWARD
LUBBOCK BY LATE AFTERNOON.
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS CYCLE THOUGH WINDS WILL BECOME VERY
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EXCEED CAPABILITIES OF LIGHT AIRCRAFT.
BLOWING DUST IS MOST LIKELY AT KLBB AND KPVW WHICH HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DROP US INTO MVFR TERRITORY. THE HIGHEST BLDU THREAT
APPEARS TO BE AT KLBB AFTER 20Z. NOT GOING TO BE A GOOD DAY FOR
SMOOTH AIR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016/
AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30
KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LBB AND PVW AFTER 19Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016/
SHORT TERM...
STRONG UPPER LOW ROTATING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL EJECT
INTO THE PLAINS STATES TO OUR NORTH THIS EVENING.AS IT DOES...WE
WILL HAVE A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE 700MB
GRADIENT IS IN A RANGE SUPPORTIVE OF 35-40 MPH SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS WITH GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 55-60 MPH. AS SUCH WE ARE
UPGRADING THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING WHICH WILL RUN FROM
NOON TILL 6 PM. WE ALSO CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION
WILL PROBABLY BE MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF VIRGA AND THAT COULD
EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
ALTHOUGH WE HAVE A HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT...WE WILL START OFF
THE DAY WITH RELATIVELY MILD SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. THE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE SHARPLY AS A
PACIFIC FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO ENTER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AROUND NOON AND THEN SPREAD
RAPIDLY EASTWARD. THE HIGH WINDS SHOULD APPROACH A LUBBOCK TO
PLAINVIEW LINE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 PM AND CONTINUING EAST. WIND SPEEDS
OFF THE CAPROCK SHOULD BE BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA.
LONG TERM...
COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE DEPARTING WIND STORM ON
TUESDAY LOOK ON TRACK. DRY LOWER LEVELS BUT AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH THE SLOPED FRONT OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES EARLY WEDNESDAY TO DEVELOP LIFT IN
THE 700 MB AREA...STILL CAPABLE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SUPPOSING
LIFT PERSISTS LONG ENOUGH TO SATURATE LOWER LEVELS AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT. EITHER WAY...ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AT BEST.
LATER WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN CHILLY WITH LIGHT WINDS WHILE MODEST
WARMING IS EXPECTED THURSDAY PERHAPS INTO FRIDAY.
SOLUTIONS ARE MORE WOUND-UP WITH THE NEXT BALL OF ENERGY EXPECTED
TO DIVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. AIRMASS SHOULD BE QUITE DRY IN LOWER LEVELS GOING IN. BUT
ASSUMING AGAIN THAT AT LEAST MODERATELY STRONG DEEP LIFT OCCURS AS
CURRENTLY INDICATED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WE CAN ACCEPT A
MINIMAL MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AS SPAT OUT
BY OUR BLENDED SOLUTIONS. CURRENT RUNS NOW SHOW POTENTIAL FOR
MODEST WARMING BY SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER CARVING-TYPE UPPER
TROUGH AND COOLING EARLY OF THE NEXT WEEK. SO...AN ACTIVE PATTERN
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK ALTHOUGH LACKING MOISTURE AND THUS
POTENTIAL FOR MORE NOTABLE WEATHER. RMCQUEEN
FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. BECAUSE OF
THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS...ANY FIRES THAT DO BREAK OUT WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD EXPLOSIVELY. SINCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN HIGH THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH HUMIDITIES ALSO SLOW TO
RECOVER...WE WILL LET THE RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUE UNTIL MID
EVENING.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ025-026-
030>032-035>038-040>044.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ021>024-
027>030-033>036-039>041.
&&
$$
26/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1013 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016
.AVIATION UPDATE...
GULF MOISTURE SURGING RAPIDLY NORTH WITH A WARM FRONT THIS
MORNING. IFR CIGS AND FOG AROUND ACT TAF SITE THIS MORNING.
RAP/HRRR SEEM TO BE THE ONLY MODELS PICKING UP ON THE CURRENT
TRENDS.
MVFR CIGS NOW APPROACHING THE METROPLEX TAF SITES...THE WESTERN
EDGE WILL TEND TO ERODE. HAVE MVFR CIGS IN ALL METROPLEX TAFS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT IS LOWER FOR WESTERN SITES
THAN EASTERN SITES. OTHERWISE LIGHT EAST WIND NOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 15-20KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON.
WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A
FEW BRIEF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH VFR BEHIND THE FRONT
AND WESTERLY WIND AROUND 15KT WILL PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY. MAV/LAV
GUIDANCE LOOKS A LITTLE HIGH WITH WEST WIND TUESDAY MORNING BASED
ON THE FLOW AT 850MB AND A SURFACE LOW TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE
TAF SITES. DO NOT ANTICIPATE CROSSWIND IMPACTS FOR DFW TUESDAY.
TA..50
&&
.UPDATE...
A STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING AND
WILL LIKELY REACH THE I-20/I-30 CORRIDORS LATE THIS MORNING OR BY
MIDDAY. THIS MAY HAVE SOME EFFECT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES. HRRR AND SREF MODELS SEEM
TO LOCK ON TO THE STRATUS WELL...WHILE OTHERS WERE TOO OPTIMISTIC.
AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH 10 AM...BEFORE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES HELP DISPERSE ANY FOG. LOOKING AT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR THOSE MODELS INDICATE THAT THOUGH CEILINGS WILL LIFT
WITH WARMING OF THE LOW LEVELS...DECKS WILL REMAIN BROKEN TO
OVERCAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.
WE HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 70S IN THE EAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LACK OF INSOLATION AS COMPARED TO EARLIER...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE FAR WEST WHERE SOME
VEERING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED. WE WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR EASTLAND AND
STEPHENS COUNTIES. A GRASS FIRE DANGER STATEMENT CONTINUES AS FAR
EAST AS A BOWIE...TO WEATHERFORD...TO LAMPASAS LINE FOR LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES ...DRIER FUELS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS 15-20 MPH ELSEWHERE.
05/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016/
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING FELT COMPARED TO THIS TIME
YESTERDAY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT...WHICH HAD
BECOME STATIONARY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. IN FACT IT LOOKS LIKE THE BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY BEGUN
TO LIFT NORTH IN RESPONSE TO LEE ROCKIES CYCLOGENESIS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES.
THE UPPER LOW CAN BE SEEN MARCHING EASTWARD ON SATELLITE AND IS
PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD ADVANCE TODAY...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES CAN EXPECT FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING
AS THE MOISTURE RICH AIR ALONG THE FRONT CREEPS IN FROM THE SOUTH.
FOG SHOULD HANG AROUND UNTIL LATE MORNING BUT QUICKLY BURN OFF BY
MIDDAY.
AS FOR THE DEVELOPING STORM OUT WEST...A DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL
ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND LEADING TO A WARM AND
WINDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL KICK IN AS THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES LIFTS QUICKLY NORTH
LATER THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH FIRE
DANGER ACROSS THE WEST WHERE THE WARMEST AND DRIEST CONDITIONS
WILL RESIDE. THE TIMING WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS A DRYLINE NUDGES INTO THE AREA...CREATING MORE OF A
SOUTHWEST WIND COMPONENT ALONG WITH WARMER...DRIER AIR. WE HAVE
DECIDED THAT A RED FLAG WARNING IS NECESSARY FOR THE WESTERN-MOST
COUNTIES FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHERE A WINDOW OF
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE.
A COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE DRY LINE THIS EVENING AS THE STORM
SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE OK PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST
KS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO
DRY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE FRONT...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IT STILL APPEARS THAT
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE...SO ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED AND SUB-SEVERE.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
WITH COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND IT. A SECOND SURGE OF
COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY. GOOD COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH OVER THE AREA. WEDNESDAY/S
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE MORNING NEAR FREEZING AND STRUGGLE TO
REACH 50 IN MOST LOCATIONS THAT AFTERNOON. LIGHTER WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 30S SOUTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR-NORMAL BY FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS OVERHEAD. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVERHEAD LATE
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN THIS
WEEKEND.
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 72 49 62 34 50 / 5 10 10 5 5
WACO, TX 73 48 64 34 52 / 5 10 10 5 5
PARIS, TX 71 50 62 33 48 / 10 30 20 10 5
DENTON, TX 72 46 60 31 48 / 5 10 10 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 71 47 61 32 48 / 5 20 10 5 5
DALLAS, TX 72 50 62 35 50 / 5 20 10 5 5
TERRELL, TX 71 49 63 35 50 / 5 20 10 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 72 50 65 36 52 / 5 20 10 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 74 49 66 34 53 / 5 10 10 5 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 75 44 60 32 48 / 5 10 10 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR TXZ115-129.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
950 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016
.DISCUSSION...
FOGGY AT THE COAST AND IN SOME OF THE MARINE AREAS.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CREPT DOWN TO BRENHAM AND CROCKETT BUT IS
QUICKLY LIFTING NORTH AND WINDS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MIXING TO ERODE CLOUDS BENEATH THE VERY
STRONG CAP IN PLACE AND GIVE THE REGION ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY.
FOG STILL HANGING IN THERE AROUND GALVESTON BUT IMPROVING AROUND
MATAGORDA. HAVE EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 6 AM
TUESDAY. THE FOG MAY BE CONCENTRATED RIGHT NEAR THE COAST AND IN
THE UPPER REACHES OF THE BAYS THIS AFTERNOON. FLUCTUATIONS ARE
LIKELY WITH STRONGER WINDS TODAY AND THE VISIBILITIES MAY IMPROVE
FOR A FEW HOURS AT SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST BUT AS
TEMPERATURES FALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE SEA FOG WILL
LIKELY RETURN AND INTRUDE INLAND.
FRONT STILL LOOKS TO BE STRONGLY CAPPED AND HAVE PARED BACK THE
DURATION OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS TO COINCIDE A LITTLE CLOSER
WITH THE FROPA. THE FROPA WILL END THE FOG THREAT AS WELL.
45
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016/
AVIATION...
SEA FOG WAS NOT AS PREVALENT THIS MORNING AS EARLIER THOUGHT. EVEN
SO...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE
MORNING. EXPECT A POSSIBLE THREE TO FOUR HOUR WINDOW OF VFR
CONDITIONS FOR MOST INLAND SITES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PICK
UP AS WELL AND SHOULD KEEP THE SEA FOG AT BAY OVER THE COASTAL
SITES THROUGH THE EVENING. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL USHER DRIER
AIR INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM KCLL AND KUTS AFTER 09Z. CONDITIONS
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH MAY WORSEN OVER THE SITES FROM KCXO TO TO THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SO IF THE WINDS DIMINISH ENOUGH
FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT AND FOR THE FOG TO SPREAD INLAND.
40
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016/
DISCUSSION...
AT 3 AM...A WEAK BOUNDARY SLICED THROUGH THE EXTREME NORTHERN PART
OF SE TX. THE SFC DEW PT AT CALDWELL WAS 46 AND IT WAS 61 AT KCLL
AND 64 AT BRENHAM. THE BOUNDARY WILL WAFFLE A BIT NORTH BEFORE
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING AND HIGHER DEW PT AIR WILL FILTER TO THE
NORTH. THE OTHER DILEMMA THIS MORNING IS FOG. HRRR IS HANDLING IT
PRETTY WELL AND IS DEPICTING TWO AREAS OF CONCERN. THE FIRST IS
THE SEA FOG AT THE COAST. AS THE FOG MOVES INLAND...THERE APPEARS
TO BE JUST ENOUGH WIND AT 500-1000 FEET TO LIFT THE FOG INTO LIFR
CIGS. THE SECOND AREA OF CONCERN IS OVER THE NW ZONES WHERE
VISIBILITIES HAVE WAVERED BETWEEN 1/2 AND 2 MILES IN FOG. THE HRRR
SHOWS THAT AREA IMPROVING BETWEEN 11-13Z SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THE HRRR KEEPS THE SEA FOG IN PLACE ALONG
THE COAST FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT IN VSBY FOR THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
COUNTIES BY 10 AM OR SO...BUT THE IMMEDIATE COAST COULD KEEP THE
FOG FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH ON THE FENCE...HAVE DECIDED TO
CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR WHARTON...FT BEND...HARRIS AND
LIBERTY COUNTIES AS OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMERAS SIMPLY DON`T
SUPPORT RESTRICTED VSBYS LESS THAN A 1/4 MILE. WILL MAINTAIN THE
ADVISORY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER/MID 60S SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY SO IT WON`T
TAKE MUCH HEATING TO BUMP TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON.
NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH SKY COVER TODAY
AS THE NAM KEEPS THINGS CLOUDY WHILE THE GFS BREAKS OUT SOME AFTN
SUN. A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE SHOULD LIMIT MIXING SO
OPTED TOWARD MORE CLOUDS TODAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SE COLORADO WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT
AND TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT SO WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AS THE LOW PUSHES TO THE NE...A WEAK PRE
FRONTAL TROUGH OR WHAT LOOKS LIKE A DRY LINE SHOULD CROSS THE
AREA. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH PW VALUES ONLY AROUND AN INCH.
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS CAPPED SO JUST EXPECTED A BROKEN LINE OF WEAK
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS WITH SYSTEM
WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS PROBABLY GETTING JUST A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. A SURGE OF MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE ON WED/THURS AND EAST OF THE STATE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS AND
CLEAR SKIES WED-FRI. A WEAK S/WV TROUGH WILL DIG INTO TEXAS FRI
NITE OR SATURDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WORK WITH
BUT ADDED 20/30 POPS AS THE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE LOOKS RATHER
STRONG. HIGHER POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION CLOSER TO
THE BEST FORCING AND DEEPER MSTR. 43
MARINE...
AREAS OF DENSE SEA FOG WILL POSSIBLY LIFT THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND HELP TO DISPERSE ANY WIDESPREAD FOG THAT
TRIES TO DEVELOP. STILL THINK THAT THERE WILL BE PATCHY FOG THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THE SEA FOG WILL BECOME DENSE
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FACTORS CONTRIBUTING
WILL BE DIMINISHING WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND POOLING OF
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN ANY EVENT...THE FOG THREAT
WILL END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE BAYS AND OFF THE COAST AROUND OR JUST AFTER
SUNRISE. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL THEN PUSH OFF THE COAST EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING. MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
SECOND FRONT.
40
CLIMATE...
JANUARY HAS COME TO AN END AND THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE
MONTH WAS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL. RAINFALL ACROSS SE
TEXAS WAS WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH MANY LOCATIONS 2 INCHES DRIER
THAN THE 30 YEAR NORMALS. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 78 56 68 39 56 / 10 20 10 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 78 63 74 42 60 / 10 20 20 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 69 62 72 48 59 / 10 20 30 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...
MATAGORDA.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...45
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
902 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016
.UPDATE...
A STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING AND
WILL LIKELY REACH THE I-20/I-30 CORRIDORS LATE THIS MORNING OR BY
MIDDAY. THIS MAY HAVE SOME EFFECT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES. HRRR AND SREF MODELS SEEM
TO LOCK ON TO THE STRATUS WELL...WHILE OTHERS WERE TOO OPTIMISTIC.
AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH 10 AM...BEFORE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES HELP DISPERSE ANY FOG. LOOKING AT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR THOSE MODELS INDICATE THAT THOUGH CEILINGS WILL LIFT
WITH WARMING OF THE LOW LEVELS...DECKS WILL REMAIN BROKEN TO
OVERCAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.
WE HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 70S IN THE EAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LACK OF INSOLATION AS COMPARED TO EARLIER...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE FAR WEST WHERE SOME
VEERING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED. WE WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR EASTLAND AND
STEPHENS COUNTIES. A GRASS FIRE DANGER STATEMENT CONTINUES AS FAR
EAST AS A BOWIE...TO WEATHERFORD...TO LAMPASAS LINE FOR LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES ...DRIER FUELS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS 15-20 MPH ELSEWHERE.
05/
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 557 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016/
DIFFICULT FORECAST TODAY AS RICH GULF MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD
WITH A WARM FRONT. THIS MOIST AIRMASS IS REPLACING A COOLER
AIRMASS AND IS RESULTING IN IFR CIGS AND SOME LIGHT FOG SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. RAP/HRRR SEEM TO BE THE
ONLY MODELS IDENTIFYING CURRENT TRENDS WELL...AND HAVE WEIGHED
THEIR OUTPUT HEAVILY FOR TAF FORECAST TODAY.
WILL BRING IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBY INTO WACO AFTER 1330Z WITH CIGS
GRADUALLY LIFTING TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING AND FINALLY ERODING BY
MID AFTERNOON. AS THESE CIGS APPROACH THE METROPLEX THEIR WESTERN
EDGE WILL TEND TO ERODE...BUT IT APPEARS THAT GKY/DAL AND POSSIBLY
DFW WILL CATCH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THEM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE PUT A MENTION OF MVFR CIGS IN ALL METROPLEX TAFS...BUT
THREAT IS MUCH LOWER FOR WESTERN SITES THAN EASTERN SITES. FOR DAL
HAVE SHOWN MVFR ALL AFTERNOON WITH AFW/FTW JUST HAVING A TEMPO MVFR
FOR A COUPLE HOURS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR DFW/GKY HAVE SET THE
WINDOW OF MVFR FOR 4 HOURS FROM 17/18Z TO 21/22Z. OTHERWISE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS NOW WILL BECOME SOUTH AND INCREASE TO 15-20KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND 6Z OR MIDNIGHT LOCAL. SOME WEAK
AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY ALOFT AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT
IN A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WHILE THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE...THE POTENTIAL LOOKS TOO LOW TO MENTION. VFR BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH WESTERLY WINDS AT 10-15KT WILL PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY.
MAV/LAV GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO HIGH WITH WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY
MORNING GIVEN ONLY 25KT FLOW AT 850MB AND A SURFACE LOW/UPPER
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THUS DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY CROSSWIND CONCERNS TUESDAY.
TR.92
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016/
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING FELT COMPARED TO THIS TIME
YESTERDAY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT...WHICH HAD
BECOME STATIONARY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. IN FACT IT LOOKS LIKE THE BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY BEGUN
TO LIFT NORTH IN RESPONSE TO LEE ROCKIES CYCLOGENESIS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES.
THE UPPER LOW CAN BE SEEN MARCHING EASTWARD ON SATELLITE AND IS
PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD ADVANCE TODAY...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES CAN EXPECT FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING
AS THE MOISTURE RICH AIR ALONG THE FRONT CREEPS IN FROM THE SOUTH.
FOG SHOULD HANG AROUND UNTIL LATE MORNING BUT QUICKLY BURN OFF BY
MIDDAY.
AS FOR THE DEVELOPING STORM OUT WEST...A DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL
ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND LEADING TO A WARM AND
WINDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL KICK IN AS THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES LIFTS QUICKLY NORTH
LATER THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH FIRE
DANGER ACROSS THE WEST WHERE THE WARMEST AND DRIEST CONDITIONS
WILL RESIDE. THE TIMING WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS A DRYLINE NUDGES INTO THE AREA...CREATING MORE OF A
SOUTHWEST WIND COMPONENT ALONG WITH WARMER...DRIER AIR. WE HAVE
DECIDED THAT A RED FLAG WARNING IS NECESSARY FOR THE WESTERN-MOST
COUNTIES FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHERE A WINDOW OF
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE.
A COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE DRY LINE THIS EVENING AS THE STORM
SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE OK PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST
KS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO
DRY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE FRONT...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IT STILL APPEARS THAT
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE...SO ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED AND SUB-SEVERE.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
WITH COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND IT. A SECOND SURGE OF
COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY. GOOD COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH OVER THE AREA. WEDNESDAY/S
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE MORNING NEAR FREEZING AND STRUGGLE TO
REACH 50 IN MOST LOCATIONS THAT AFTERNOON. LIGHTER WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 30S SOUTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR-NORMAL BY FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS OVERHEAD. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVERHEAD LATE
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN THIS
WEEKEND.
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 75 49 62 34 50 / 5 10 10 5 5
WACO, TX 77 48 64 34 52 / 5 10 10 5 5
PARIS, TX 70 50 62 33 48 / 10 30 20 10 5
DENTON, TX 74 46 60 31 48 / 5 10 10 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 73 47 61 32 48 / 5 20 10 5 5
DALLAS, TX 75 50 62 35 50 / 5 20 10 5 5
TERRELL, TX 75 49 63 35 50 / 5 20 10 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 75 50 65 36 52 / 5 20 10 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 80 49 66 34 53 / 5 10 10 5 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 76 44 60 32 48 / 5 10 10 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR TXZ115-129.
&&
$$
92/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
601 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016
.AVIATION...
SEA FOG WAS NOT AS PREVALENT THIS MORNING AS EARLIER THOUGHT. EVEN
SO...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE
MORNING. EXPECT A POSSIBLE THREE TO FOUR HOUR WINDOW OF VFR
CONDITOINS FOR MOST INLAND SITES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PICK
UP AS WELL AND SHOULD KEEP THE SEA FOG AT BAY OVER THE COASTAL
SITES THROUGH THE EVENING. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL USHER DRIER
AIR INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM KCLL AND KUTS AFTER 09Z. CONDITIONS
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH MAY WORSEN OVER THE SITES FROM KCXO TO TO THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SO IF THE WINDS DIMINISH ENOUGH
FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT AND FOR THE FOG TO SPREAD INLAND.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016/
DISCUSSION...
AT 3 AM...A WEAK BOUNDARY SLICED THROUGH THE EXTREME NORTHERN PART
OF SE TX. THE SFC DEW PT AT CALDWELL WAS 46 AND IT WAS 61 AT KCLL
AND 64 AT BRENHAM. THE BOUNDARY WILL WAFFLE A BIT NORTH BEFORE
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING AND HIGHER DEW PT AIR WILL FILTER TO THE
NORTH. THE OTHER DILEMMA THIS MORNING IS FOG. HRRR IS HANDLING IT
PRETTY WELL AND IS DEPICTING TWO AREAS OF CONCERN. THE FIRST IS
THE SEA FOG AT THE COAST. AS THE FOG MOVES INLAND...THERE APPEARS
TO BE JUST ENOUGH WIND AT 500-1000 FEET TO LIFT THE FOG INTO LIFR
CIGS. THE SECOND AREA OF CONCERN IS OVER THE NW ZONES WHERE
VISIBILITIES HAVE WAVERED BETWEEN 1/2 AND 2 MILES IN FOG. THE HRRR
SHOWS THAT AREA IMPROVING BETWEEN 11-13Z SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THE HRRR KEEPS THE SEA FOG IN PLACE ALONG
THE COAST FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT IN VSBY FOR THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
COUNTIES BY 10 AM OR SO...BUT THE IMMEDIATE COAST COULD KEEP THE
FOG FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH ON THE FENCE...HAVE DECIDED TO
CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR WHARTON...FT BEND...HARRIS AND
LIBERTY COUNTIES AS OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMERAS SIMPLY DON`T
SUPPORT RESTRICTED VSBYS LESS THAN A 1/4 MILE. WILL MAINTAIN THE
ADVISORY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER/MID 60S SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY SO IT WON`T
TAKE MUCH HEATING TO BUMP TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON.
NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH SKY COVER TODAY
AS THE NAM KEEPS THINGS CLOUDY WHILE THE GFS BREAKS OUT SOME AFTN
SUN. A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE SHOULD LIMIT MIXING SO
OPTED TOWARD MORE CLOUDS TODAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SE COLORADO WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT
AND TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT SO WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AS THE LOW PUSHES TO THE NE...A WEAK PRE
FRONTAL TROUGH OR WHAT LOOKS LIKE A DRY LINE SHOULD CROSS THE
AREA. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH PW VALUES ONLY AROUND AN INCH.
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS CAPPED SO JUST EXPECTED A BROKEN LINE OF WEAK
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS WITH SYSTEM
WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS PROBABLY GETTING JUST A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. A SURGE OF MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE ON WED/THURS AND EAST OF THE STATE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS AND
CLEAR SKIES WED-FRI. A WEAK S/WV TROUGH WILL DIG INTO TEXAS FRI
NITE OR SATURDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WORK WITH
BUT ADDED 20/30 POPS AS THE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE LOOKS RATHER
STRONG. HIGHER POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION CLOSER TO
THE BEST FORCING AND DEEPER MSTR. 43
MARINE...
AREAS OF DENSE SEA FOG WILL POSSIBLY LIFT THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND HELP TO DISPERSE ANY WIDESPREAD FOG THAT
TRIES TO DEVELOP. STILL THINK THAT THERE WILL BE PATCHY FOG THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THE SEA FOG WILL BECOME DENSE
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FACTORS CONTRIBUTING
WILL BE DIMINISHING WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND POOLING OF
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN ANY EVENT...THE FOG THREAT
WILL END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE BAYS AND OFF THE COAST AROUND OR JUST AFTER
SUNRISE. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL THEN PUSH OFF THE COAST EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING. MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
SECOND FRONT.
40
CLIMATE...
JANUARY HAS COME TO AN END AND THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE
MONTH WAS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL. RAINFALL ACROSS SE
TEXAS WAS WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH MANY LOCATIONS 2 INCHES DRIER
THAN THE 30 YEAR NORMALS. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 78 56 68 39 56 / 10 20 20 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 78 63 74 42 60 / 10 30 30 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 69 62 72 48 59 / 10 30 40 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...
JACKSON...MATAGORDA.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
350 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016
.DISCUSSION...
AT 3 AM...A WEAK BOUNDARY SLICED THROUGH THE EXTREME NORTHERN PART
OF SE TX. THE SFC DEW PT AT CALDWELL WAS 46 AND IT WAS 61 AT KCLL
AND 64 AT BRENHAM. THE BOUNDARY WILL WAFFLE A BIT NORTH BEFORE
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING AND HIGHER DEW PT AIR WILL FILTER TO THE
NORTH. THE OTHER DILEMMA THIS MORNING IS FOG. HRRR IS HANDLING IT
PRETTY WELL AND IS DEPICTING TWO AREAS OF CONCERN. THE FIRST IS
THE SEA FOG AT THE COAST. AS THE FOG MOVES INLAND...THERE APPEARS
TO BE JUST ENOUGH WIND AT 500-1000 FEET TO LIFT THE FOG INTO LIFR
CIGS. THE SECOND AREA OF CONCERN IS OVER THE NW ZONES WHERE
VISIBILITIES HAVE WAVERED BETWEEN 1/2 AND 2 MILES IN FOG. THE HRRR
SHOWS THAT AREA IMPROVING BETWEEN 11-13Z SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THE HRRR KEEPS THE SEA FOG IN PLACE ALONG
THE COAST FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT IN VSBY FOR THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
COUNTIES BY 10 AM OR SO...BUT THE IMMEDIATE COAST COULD KEEP THE
FOG FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH ON THE FENCE...HAVE DECIDED TO
CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR WHARTON...FT BEND...HARRIS AND
LIBERTY COUNTIES AS OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMERAS SIMPLY DON`T
SUPPORT RESTRICTED VSBYS LESS THAN A 1/4 MILE. WILL MAINTAIN THE
ADVISORY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER/MID 60S SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY SO IT WON`T
TAKE MUCH HEATING TO BUMP TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON.
NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH SKY COVER TODAY
AS THE NAM KEEPS THINGS CLOUDY WHILE THE GFS BREAKS OUT SOME AFTN
SUN. A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE SHOULD LIMIT MIXING SO
OPTED TOWARD MORE CLOUDS TODAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SE COLORADO WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT
AND TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT SO WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AS THE LOW PUSHES TO THE NE...A WEAK PRE
FRONTAL TROUGH OR WHAT LOOKS LIKE A DRY LINE SHOULD CROSS THE
AREA. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH PW VALUES ONLY AROUND AN INCH.
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS CAPPED SO JUST EXPECTED A BROKEN LINE OF WEAK
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS WITH SYSTEM
WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS PROBABLY GETTING JUST A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. A SURGE OF MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE ON WED/THURS AND EAST OF THE STATE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS AND
CLEAR SKIES WED-FRI. A WEAK S/WV TROUGH WILL DIG INTO TEXAS FRI
NITE OR SATURDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WORK WITH
BUT ADDED 20/30 POPS AS THE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE LOOKS RATHER
STRONG. HIGHER POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION CLOSER TO
THE BEST FORCING AND DEEPER MSTR. 43
&&
.MARINE...
AREAS OF DENSE SEA FOG WILL POSSIBLY LIFT THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND HELP TO DISPERSE ANY WIDESPREAD FOG THAT
TRIES TO DEVELOP. STILL THINK THAT THERE WILL BE PATCHY FOG THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THE SEA FOG WILL BECOME DENSE
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FACTORS CONTRIBUTING
WILL BE DIMINISHING WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND POOLING OF
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN ANY EVENT...THE FOG THREAT
WILL END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE BAYS AND OFF THE COAST AROUND OR JUST AFTER
SUNRISE. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL THEN PUSH OFF THE COAST EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING. MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
SECOND FRONT.
40
&&
.CLIMATE...
JANUARY HAS COME TO AN END AND THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE
MONTH WAS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL. RAINFALL ACROSS SE
TEXAS WAS WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH MANY LOCATIONS 2 INCHES DRIER
THAN THE 30 YEAR NORMALS. 43
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 78 56 68 39 56 / 10 20 20 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 78 63 74 42 60 / 10 30 30 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 69 62 72 48 59 / 10 30 40 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...
JACKSON...MATAGORDA.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1110 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS COUNTIES WITH FOG/STRATUS CLOUDS EXPECTED TO PUSH TO THE
NORTH LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. LATEST HRRR LAYER TOTAL
CLOUD COVER AND CIRA SIMWRF FOG PRODUCTS SUGGEST THE EDGE OF THE
LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK TO AFFECT THE I-35 TERMINALS AROUND 12Z/13Z
TIME FRAME. ALSO...AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW CIGS UNDER
A SHALLOW LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE TO FEW HUNDRED FEET.
THEREFORE...OPTED TO INTRODUCE A TEMPO GROUP FOR ALL I-35 SITES
WITH LIFR CONDITIONS. ACROSS KDRT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AROUND 16Z MONDAY...WELL-MIX LAYER TO BRING AN
END TO LOW CIGS/VBSYS. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT EXPECTED FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND
01Z TUESDAY FOR KDRT AND ALONG THE I-35 SITES BETWEEN 06Z FOR KSAT
AND KSSF AND 07Z FOR KAUS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016/
UPDATE...
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS MOSTLY ON TRACK. ONLY ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO THE WEATHER GRIDS AND THE HOURLY GRIDS TO RE-TREND THEM
BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. THE RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AS WELL
AS THE 00Z RUN OF THE NAM MODEL BRING FOG INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR
BY MORNING SO DID EXPAND MENTION OF PATCHY FOG. ALSO ADDED AREAS
OF FOG TO THE COASTAL PLAINS. WHILE STATIONS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST
ARE ALREADY REPORTING VISIBILITY 1 MILE OR LESS...THE INLAND OBSERVING
STATION FROM VICTORIA TO LA GRANGE HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO 3 TO 5
MILES.
THE OTHER BIG ADDITION TO THE EVENING UPDATE WAS THE ISSUANCE OF A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FOUR COUNTIES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TO 15 TO 20 MPH
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS TO CREATE A FEW
HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IN VAL VERDE...KINNEY...MAVERICK AND
EDWARDS COUNTIES. FUEL MOISTURE IS THE BIG QUESTION FOR THESE
WESTERN AREAS...BUT THE LAST SIGNIFICANT RAINS THIS AREA
EXPERIENCED WERE BACK IN EARLY JANUARY. FOR THIS REASON WENT AHEAD
AND ISSUED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL EXAMINE
THE TRENDS AND DETERMINE WHETHER A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE
NEEDED. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON
TUESDAY ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A FEW OF THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU COUNTIES...EDWARDS...REAL... VAL
VERDE...KERR AND DIMMIT ARE CURRENTLY UNDER COUNTY WIDE BURN
BANS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 07Z MONDAY FOR THE I-35
TERMINALS. KDRT SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR
THE I-35 SITES AS PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS CLOUDS FORM ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. ONCE AGAIN...BOTH GFS LAMP AND MOS GUIDANCE
SUGGEST SEVERAL HOURS OF LIFR CONDITIONS FOR THE I-35 AIRPORTS
FROM 11Z TO 16Z MONDAY. BELIEVE THESE MODELS ARE OVER DOING LOW
VBSYS FOR THAT PERIOD WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS EARLIER
THIS MORNING. CAN NOT RULE AN HOUR OR TWO OF LIFR AROUND KAUS FOR
THE 12Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME...HOWEVER IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE TO MAIN FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY MORNING TIL 15Z.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE I-35 SITES AFTER 15Z MONDAY AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 1O TO 20 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY FOR
KSAT AND KSSF AND 07 TUESDAY FOR KAUS. WIND SHIFT TO THE NW WILL
OCCUR AROUND 01Z TUESDAY FOR KDRT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
THIS AFTERNOON...A DRY LINE SPANNED FROM EAGLE PASS TO HONDO TO
KILLEEN RESULTING IN DRY GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE WEST AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS EAST OF THE I35 CORRIDOR AND COASTAL
PLAINS. DEWPOINTS ON THE PLATEAU WERE IN THE 20S AND AS HIGH AS 60
IN VICTORIA. HIGHS WERE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION.
A VERY SIMILAR FORECAST TONIGHT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT ON THE MOIST SIDE OF THE DRY LINE AND
CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING...PERHAPS A BIT LESS COVERAGE THAN THIS
MORNING.
TOMORROW WILL BE THE LAST DAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
OVERALL THE FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED SUBSTANTIALLY AS EXPECTATIONS
ARE STILL FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FOR MANY AREAS AND GUSTY WINDS
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOS GUIDANCE INCREASES THE WIND FIELDS
SUBSTANTIALLY LATE MORNING AND AROUND THE NOONTIME HOUR. WITH A
PRE FRONTAL SURFACE LOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM...THE PGF WILL TIGHTEN AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH AND
BRING 15-25 MPH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH.
CONCERNING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...IT WAS DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ANY OF OUR COUNTIES DUE TO THE FACT THAT
NO LOCATION IS FORECAST TO RECEIVE ALL THREE NECESSARY CRITERIA
FOR A RFW. WHILE LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN EDWARDS AND VAL VERDE AND
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WILL EXPERIENCE THE WINDS AND MIN RH CRITERIA
OF 20 PERCENT OR BELOW...THE DISQUALIFYING FACTOR IS THE MOISTURE
CONTENT OF THE FUELS STILL NOT BEING DRY ENOUGH. WHEREAS IN THE
HILL COUNTRY...FUELS ARE A CATEGORY DRIER AND SHOULD SEE WINDS
OVER 20 MPH...BUT RH VALUES PROBABLY WONT QUITE REACH THE
CRITICAL 20 PERCENT MARK. THUS...THE FORECAST OF NEAR CRITICAL WAS
MAINTAINED FOR THESE AREAS.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED TO
PUSH INTO THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT...WIND ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING AND THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WILL ALSO PLUNGE RH VALUES DOWN TO BELOW 20
PERCENT FOR WEST OF THE I35 CORRIDOR AND STILL BELOW 30 PERCENT
FARTHER EAST.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT OF
THE LAST FEW DAYS. WITH MULTIPLE DAYS OF IDEAL FUEL DRYING
CONDITIONS...AND THE PROSPECT OF CRITICAL WINDS AND RH
VALUES...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE LIKELY FOR
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. DID WANT TO HOLD OFF ON A WATCH THIS
SHIFT MOSTLY DUE TO THE DESIRE TO EVALUATE THE OBSERVED FUELS
ANALYSIS FOR TODAY...LATER THIS EVENING. THAT INFORMATION SHOULD
BE ABLE TO PROVIDE A BETTER IDEA OF THE SPATIAL EXTENT THE
POSSIBLE WATCH WOULD COVER...IF CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO WARRANT THE
NEED FOR THE PRODUCT.
BEYOND TUESDAY HOWEVER...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WHICH WILL END THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT AS RH VALUES RECOVER. OUR
NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY WITH A DEEP DIVING
UPPER LOW...HOWEVER ECMWF OUTCOMES PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT QPF AND GFS
IS FULLY DRY. THIS TYPE OF MODEL DISCREPANCY IS AT BEST SUSPECT SO
FOR NOW...WILL WAIT FOR A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT BEFORE ADDRESSING
THIS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 50 79 53 70 40 / 0 0 10 - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 45 78 52 70 36 / 0 0 10 - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 45 82 52 72 38 / 0 0 10 10 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 45 78 47 66 35 / 0 0 10 - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 45 87 48 69 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 46 77 49 69 37 / 0 0 10 - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 40 84 50 72 38 / 0 0 - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 46 79 52 70 38 / 0 0 10 10 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 50 77 55 70 40 / 0 0 20 20 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 48 81 53 72 40 / 0 0 10 - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 44 84 54 72 40 / 0 0 10 - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
830 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA AND WILL REMAIN
WEDGED AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS TONIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY AS THE WINTER STORM ADVANCES NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO EASTERN CANADA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 830 PM EST TUESDAY...
EXPANDED WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE MERCER SOUTHWARD TO WATAGUA
COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA FOR THE SOUTHEAST WINDS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE COUNTIES TEND TO BE OUR FAVORED
LOCATIONS FOR THE STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS. A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST LOCATIONS FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS WOULD BE AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. ONE OF THE HINDERING FACTORS WILL BE IF THE
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION/CLOUD LAYER WILL STOP SOME OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH THE
CURRENT OBS AND MODEL TRENDS. THE HIRESW-ARW AND RNK WRFARW
AND HRRR HAVE A SLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE RAIN TONIGHT. DECIDED
TO LOWER POPS FOR THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...RAIN WILL ARRIVE FOR THE WEST AND SPREAD
EAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA. MORE CHANGES LATER TONIGHT....
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS NOSED DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS WITH SHALLOW STABLE LAYER PROMOTING NEAR SATURATED
CONDITIONS BELOW 800 MB. CLOUDS ARE THE LOWEST AND THICKEST ALONG
THE APPALACHIAN CREST FROM THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NC NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE NRV OF VA AND INTO SOUTHEAST WV. CLOUD BASES WERE
HIGHER ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND INTO THE PIEDMONT...THE DRY
NORTHEAST WIND EVEN PROMOTING SOME CLEARING ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN AND EASTERN VA.
RAIN THREAT TO THIS POINT HAS BEEN MINIMAL WITH THE ONLY REPORTS
OF PRECIPITATION COMING FROM THE RIDGE TOPS NEAR THE APPALACHIAN
CREST WHERE DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BUT
WEAKEN AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE ACTUAL FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF
CROSSING THE MS RIVER VALLEY...TRAILING FROM LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER IOWA. THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE GREAT LAKES BY DAWN WEDNESDAY...THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO OUR REGION...STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION PER INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO OVERRUN THE
COOL WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL
SHOWERS. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO BEGIN THE PROCESS OF
ERODING THE COOL WEDGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN STEADY OR RISING
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT RIDGE TOP LEVEL CLOSER TO
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION.
THE MAIN EMPHASIS FOR RAIN WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AS 800MB LOW LVL JET STREAKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FEEDING HIGHER PWATS INTO THE AREA. AS SUCH WILL SEE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN PER INCREASING UPSLOPE AND OVERRUNNING WIND
FLOW...AND IN ADDITION TO THE ARRIVAL OF A LINE OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE
NEARING OUR WRN CWA BORDER BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR COVERAGE OF
RAIN TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THE
BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA ENGULFED IN
A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN BY 12Z/7AM WED.
DONT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WITH THE PASSING
LINE OF CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS A VERY DYNAMIC
SYSTEM...BUT THE OVERALL INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED FOR OUR CWA
PER THE LINGERING STABLE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE APPALACHIANS. ATTM WILL ENTERTAIN A WIND THREAT PRIMARILY
PRIMARILY FOR NON CONVECTIVE CONCERNS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIAN DIVIDE...SPECIFICALLY TAZEWELL AND SMYTH COUNTIES
WHERE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE DUE TO
SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. THERE MAY
ALSO BE SOME RIDGETOP GUSTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE FARTHER EAST ABOVE
THE STABLE WEDGE...BUT IT APPEARS THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH
COVERAGE TO JUSTIFY A WIND ADVISORY ATTM.
MODEL QPF HAS BEEN TRENDING UP WITH THIS SYSTEM. PLEASE SEE HYDRO
SECTION OF THIS AFD FOR DETAILS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST TUESDAY...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE RAIN SHOWERS TO SUBSIDE IN THE
PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE...COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ENSUE...AND SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW THAT THE WIND
WILL NOT QUITE BE FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT RATHER FROM THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST. THIS SETUP IS NOT AS IDEAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...SO
ONLY A LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED.
BY THURSDAY...CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE...ALTHOUGH NOT SO
QUICKLY IN THE WESTERN SLOPES AND IN THE PIEDMONT EAST OF A LINE
FROM LYNCHBURG TO DANVILLE. THE ECMWF SOLUTION MOVES THE COLD FRONT
SLOWER TOWARD THE EAST COAST THAN THE GFS...AND ALSO TRIES TO
DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO BUCKLE SOME MOISTURE BACK TOWARD
THE PIEDMONT BY EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. IT SEEMS THAT THE ECMWF MAY BE
TOO SLOW...SO THE FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS SOLUTION WAS
FAVORED IN THIS FORECAST. AS A RESULT...JUST DRY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO THE EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FINALLY BUILD OVERHEAD AFTER MIDNIGHT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR EVERYWHERE IN THE
CWA...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE SUNNY BUT STILL COOL. THE HIGH SHOULD SHIFT OVER
THE PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAY NOT
COOL AS MUCH DUE TO A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND THE FLOW SLOWLY TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WERE GENERALLY HELD ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE...WHILE
LOW TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT BELOW MOS GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DRIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL START A
PERIOD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD MODERATE SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY...BUT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS THAT WILL WEAKEN THE WARMING TREND. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...TWO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS APPROACH THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. THE NORTHERN ONE WILL CROSS OVER QUEBEC AND THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE SHOULD MOVE ALONG THE GULF
COAST. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODELS KEEP THIS SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
IN PLACE. THE SOUTHERN TROUGH WILL GENERATE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...AND TRACK IT TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM
INTENSIFIES. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPEARS TO STAY JUST OFFSHORE
AND NOT IMPACT THE CWA.
BY SUNDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EMERGE WITHIN THE
NORTHERN STREAM OVER THE DAKOTAS...AND DIG SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
ACCOMPANY THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH...THAT WILL SPARK AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ON
MONDAY...TO KEEP THE APPROACHING MOISTURE FROM THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AS
RAIN...EXCEPT FOR THE COLDER WESTERN SLOPES WHERE IT MAY START AS
SNOW. ONCE A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE PRECIPITATION WOULD TURN OVER TO ALL SNOW WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SINCE THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY DUE
TO THE MODELS DIVERGING ON THE TRACK OF THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM...JUST
CHANCE POPS WERE UTILIZED.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EST TUESDAY...
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. ALL TAF
SITES ARE BELOW VFR AT THIS HOUR EXCEPT DANVILLE WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO LOWER TO MVFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WARMER AIR AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER CEILINGS/VISBYS OVERNIGHT WITH
ALL TAF LOCATIONS AT IFR CEILINGS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL
CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AND MAY BE HEAVY
AT TIMES. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL KEEP WINDS GUSTY AT BLF THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
AND GUSTY WINDS OF 15-25KTS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES. THE COLD FRONT ISNT
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES...WIND DIRECTIONS WILL SWITCH
AROUND TO THE W/SW WITH SPEEDS SLOWLY SUBSIDING.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING REACHING THE COAST BY EARLY THURSDAY. BY LATE
THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TO PROVIDE COLDER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS... AND ALSO PROVIDE A RECOVERY TO VFR CONDITIONS
AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING HIGHER FOR QPF WITH WEDNESDAYS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.75 TO 1.25...WITH SOME ISOLATED
1.50 INCH AMOUNTS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS SORT OF RAINFALL WILL
GENERATE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA STREAMS...POTENTIALLY TO NEAR
BANKFULL IN SOME INSTANCES. IF TRENDS CONTINUE TO GO HIGHER THEN A
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 100 PM EST TUESDAY...
MAINTENANCE HAS BEEN CONDUCTED ON THE KFCX RADAR. THE RADAR IS
BACK UP AND RUNNING BUT MAY CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE INTERMITTENT
OUTAGES.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...CF/PM
HYDROLOGY...PM
EQUIPMENT...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
416 PM EST MON FEB 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OVERHEAD THIS EVENING...AND MOVE SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY MIDNIGHT. THIS FRONT SHOULD STALL AND
RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN...AND
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER SHOULD FOLLOW LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST MONDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT
RAIN IS ONLY BEING REALIZED ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE
SHOWERS FIZZLE ON THE EASTERN SIDE DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS.
IN THE PIEDMONT...WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH HIGHS INTO
THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S THIS EVENING. THE RAIN INTENSITY
SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE
CWA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN A CONSIDERABLE DROP...AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES SOUTHWARD AND WEDGES ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...AND PUT THE
CWA UNDER PATCHY DRIZZLE...FOG...AND LOW CLOUDS. LOWS WERE HELD
BELOW MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO THESE AFOREMENTIONED WEATHER
ELEMENTS...WITH MID 30S TO THE MID 40S EXPECTED.
BY TUESDAY...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND OVERRUNNING WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WILL KEEP LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
CLOUDY AND DRIZZLY. AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE
CAROLINAS...THE COOL WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN
PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE HELD BELOW GUIDANCE TO MAINLY LOWER
40S TO MID 50S ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AS THE DIURNAL
RANGE SHOULD BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...FAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA SHOULD
STAY FREE OF THE COOL WEDGE AND REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES...IN RESPONSE TO A HEALTHY LOW
LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THUS...WIND GUSTS COULD INCREASE TO 30 MPH BY THE EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EST MONDAY...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...CROSSING
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY. A STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL JET IS PROGGED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...85H WINDS OF 50-65KTS.
EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A LINGERING WEDGE...SO THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE THE INVERSION. WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE FROM TENNESSEE
UP THROUGH FAR WESTERN VA INTO PARTS OF WV...THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY
MIX TO THE SURFACE...WITH GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH. THIS WILL MAINLY
IMPACT AREAS WEST OF MOUNTAIN EMPIRE VA...SMYTH...TAZEWELL COUNTIES
IN VA TOWARD BRISTOL...AND MAINLY WEST OF THE NC/TN BORDER. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO IN FAVOR OF A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THAT AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND UP UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WEDNESDAY.
RAIN POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ADVERTISED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA...ESP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY.
MODEL QPF IS FOR BETWEEN A HALF /0.50/ TO ONE INCH /1.00/ OF
RAIN...ENOUGH TO CAUSE STREAMS TO RISE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO FLOOD.
AREAS WHICH STILL HAVE SNOW COVER...PARTICULARLY THE GREENBRIER
VALLEY OF WV...WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS THERE IS
APPROXIMATELY AN INCH /1.00/ OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT REMAINING IN THE
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS OF SOUTHEAST WVA. AN INCH OF RAIN
PLUS AND INCH OF SNOW MELT WILL LIKELY CAUSE A SUBSTANTIAL RISE
ALONG THE GREENBRIER RIVER...MODELS SUGGESTING 3/4 BANK FULL.
MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...BY ABOUT
3 HOURS COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS...SUGGESTING THE FRONT
WILL COME THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS MID-DAY 1200-1400 LST...THEN
CLEARING THE PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING...1800-2100 LST. PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO THE WIND THREAT IN THE WEST. RAIN
SHOULD ALSO COME TO AN END WITHIN AN HOUR OF TWO OF FROPA.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THIS FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING OFF SHORE. EVEN IF A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH SOME OF THE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING...IT SHOULD BE JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST NOT TO IMPACT OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH ANYTHING OTHER THAN CLOUD COVER. THAT
SAID...THERE WILL BE FLURRIES ACROSS OUR MOUNTAINS AS COLDER AIR
ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST...THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER
YIELDING TO DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH AS 85H TEMPERATURES SLIP INTO
THE M8 TO M12 DEG C RANGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST MONDAY...
A TREND TOWARD MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...MODELS STILL SOMEWHAT
TROUBLESOME ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST. AN EASTERN CONUS LONG WAVE TROUGH IS DESTINED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH VARIED AMOUNTS OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY
PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH THE FLOW. THE QUESTION...WILL ANY OF THIS
ENERGY SPAWN SOMETHING THAT WOULD PRODUCE MORE THAN JUST THE TYPICAL
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. UNTIL THE MODELS RESOLVE THIS ISSUE...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF ANY SPECIFIC
FEATURE. OF MORE CERTAINTY IS THE FACT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
COLDER...PROBABLY ENDING UP WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EST MONDAY...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WILL BRING
LOWERED CEILINGS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT
TERM MODELS ARE VARYING WITH THE TIMING AND COVERAGE...BUT IT
SEEMS THE RAP IS CLOSEST TO CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
HAVE BEEN MENTIONED AT ALL SITES AS A TEMPO GROUP. THE THREAT OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS NOW
DIMINISHED...SO THAT ELEMENT HAS BEEN TAKEN OUT OF THE TAFS.
FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE EVEN FURTHER TONIGHT...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDGES SOUTHWARD AGAINST THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWERS WILL
END...DRIZZLE AND/OR FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. CONFIDENCE IS QUITE HIGH THAT IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPERIENCED AT ALL SITES...ESPECIALLY BY DAWN
ON TUESDAY. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING
THE DAY...BUT IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT IFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
INTACT BY 18Z.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN A COOL WEDGE EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE ALONG WITH OVERRUNNING WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN
IFR CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY...AND IT PROMISES TO BRING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AND A
PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN. BY THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD TO PROVIDE COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...AND ALSO PROVIDE
A RECOVERY TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 PM EST MONDAY...
THE KFCX RADAR IS BACK IN SERVICE...BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME
MAINTENANCE ISSUES TO BE RESOLVED. TECHNICIANS ARE INVESTIGATING
THE PROBLEMS...BUT THERE IS NO KNOWN TIME WHEN ALL REPAIRS WILL BE
COMPLETED.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...PW
EQUIPMENT...PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1258 PM EST MON FEB 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVES
SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER BY MIDNIGHT.
THIS FRONT SHOULD RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1103 AM EST MONDAY...
A LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS ENTERING THE WESTERN SLOPES AT THIS
HOUR. MORE TWEAKS TO THE POPS AND TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MADE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BISECT THE CWA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY THE
AFTERNOON. QPF SHOULD VARY FROM A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
HIGHS WILL VARY SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH UPPER 40S TO
THE MID 50S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL
CHANCES ARE HIGHER...AND LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT WHERE
CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL CHANCES ARE LOWER.
TONIGHT...THE FRONT ENTERS NC AND STALLS ALONG THE SRN NC AREA.
MODELS ARE DRYING THE NRN CWA OUT BY MIDNIGHT WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND HIGH RES MODELS ATTEMPTING TO PAINT RAIN OVER THE
SRN TIER OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...THE FLOW TURNS NE TO EAST. THIS
HAPPENING AT NIGHT WITH INVERSION SETTING UP IN THE LOW LVLS
SHOULD ACT TO HOLD CLOUDS IN WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SET UP ACROSS
SOUTHSIDE VA INTO THE NW NC AREA...AND AS FAR NORTH AS THE NEW
RIVER VALLEY/BLUE RIDGE AROUND ROANOKE SOUTH. WITH THIS IN
MIND...THINK TEMPS WILL STAY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL HOLD TEMPS UP. WILL START THE
EVENING WITH CHANCE POPS MOST PLACES...THEN DRY OUT THE SE WV
GREENBRIER VALLEY AREA BY MIDNIGHT AND LOWER TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER
MOST OF THE CWA...THEN DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT MOST AREAS BY DAWN
BUT HOLD SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE IN THE NC MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS...NE
INTO THE VA FOOTHILLS. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
30S GREENBRIER VALLEY TO ALLEGHANYS AS MAY EVEN SEE SOME CLEARING
BRIEFLY...TO LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 AM EST MONDAY...
FOLLOWING THE PASSING OF A FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WEDGE SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF COOL
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND WARM MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN GRAY AND DAMP CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. EASTERLY FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SPREAD
RAIN/DRIZZLE FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTRY IN THE MORNING
TO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL HAVE RAIN/DRIZZLE AND/OR FOG TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WEDGE WILL ERODE SOME AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONT DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...CLEARING THE PIEDMONT BY EVENING RUSH HOUR. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT THE FRONT COULD STALL OVER THE PIEDMONT OR REMAIN
IN THE VICINITY OF THE AREA IF RIDGING IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
REMAINS ANCHORED. FOR THIS PACKAGE...WE WILL KEEP THE FRONT
PROGRESSIVE AND MOVING TO THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MILD AS THE WEDGE DRIFTS SOUTH
TUESDAY...THEREFORE WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT A WINTRY MIX...JUST A
PLAIN OLE COLD RAIN. INTENSITY OF THE RAIN WILL INCREASE AS THE
FRONT MOVES OVER THE REGION. WE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR SOME
THUNDER AS DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE IMPRESSIVE...BUT WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING ANY THING SEVERE. SOME HYDRO CONCERNS WITH SLOW MELTING
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH RAINFALL RATES WEDNESDAY.
FORECASTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS EVENT SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN
INCH...WHICH THE AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE WITH NO PROBLEM.
AREAS WITHIN THE WEDGE TUESDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S
WHILE OUTSIDE THE WEDGE WILL BE CLOSER TO 60F (BLUEFIELD-RICHLANDS).
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT. AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION...SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE A RISE IN
TEMPERATURES AS THE WEDGE ERODES. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE
UPPER 50S WEST TO MID 60S EAST WEDNESDAY. THE COLD AIR WILL LAG
BEHIND WITH THE DEW POINT FRONT...WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 30S WEST TO LOWER 40S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 407 PM EST SUNDAY...
A TREND TOWARD MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...MODELS STILL SOMEWHAT
TROUBLESOME ABOUT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE REMNANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THIS PRECIPITATION SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION
AND THIS PACKAGE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A DRY FORECAST FOR THE RNK
CWA IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THIS AGREES WITH WPC THINKING ATTM.
THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH IS DESTINED TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE
WEEKEND AND AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK AS SEVERAL
ALBERTA CLIPPERS TRACK THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS HELPING TO
REINFORCE AND DEEPEN THE TROUGH. SEVERAL SURGES OF CANADIAN/ARCTIC
AIR ARE PROGGED TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST...THE INTENSITY OF WHICH VARIES
ACCORDING TO WHATEVER MODEL YOU CHOOSE TO LOOK AT. NONETHELESS...A
TREND TOWARD NORMAL AND EVEN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEARS
LIKELY. QUESTION THEN BECOMES WILL THERE BE ANY SHORT WAVE ENERGY
TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO SPAWN SOMETHING THAT
WOULD PRODUCE MORE THAN JUST THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1258 PM EST MONDAY...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WILL BRING
LOWERED CEILINGS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT
TERM MODELS ARE VARYING WITH THE TIMING AND COVERAGE...BUT IT
SEEMS THE RAP IS CLOSEST TO CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
HAVE BEEN MENTIONED AT ALL SITES AS A TEMPO GROUP. THE THREAT OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS NOW
DIMINISHED...SO THAT ELEMENT HAS BEEN TAKEN OUT OF THE TAFS.
FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE EVEN FURTHER TONIGHT...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDGES SOUTHWARD AGAINST THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWERS WILL
END...DRIZZLE AND/OR FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. CONFIDENCE IS QUITE HIGH THAT IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPERIENCED AT ALL SITES...ESPECIALLY BY DAWN
ON TUESDAY. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING
THE DAY...BUT IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT IFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
INTACT BY 18Z.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN A COOL WEDGE EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE ALONG WITH OVERRUNNING WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN
IFR CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY...AND IT PROMISES TO BRING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AND A
PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN. BY THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD TO PROVIDE COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...AND ALSO PROVIDE
A RECOVERY TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1111 AM EST MONDAY...
MAINTENANCE IS STILL ONGOING WITH THE KFCX RADAR EVEN THOUGH IT IS
OPERATIONAL NOW. TECHNICIANS ARE INVESTIGATING THE PROBLEM...BUT
THERE IS NO KNOWN TIME OF FULL RESTORATION AT THIS MOMENT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/PW
EQUIPMENT...PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1152 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OVERHEAD TO
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE FROM A
STRONGER COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 940 PM EDT SUNDAY...
AS EXPECTED A WIDE VARIETY OF TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BASED ON
ELEVATION. TYPICAL LOWER ELEVATION COOL SPOTS ARE ALREADY DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S...MEANWHILE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ARE STILL
HOLDING IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AT THIS HOUR MAKING FOR A
TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT. LATEST HRRR RUN BRINGS PRECIP
TO OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP AROUND 16Z MONDAY MORNING WHICH ALIGNS
WELL WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE THERE.
AS OF 340 PM EST SUNDAY...
A SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE...CONTINUES TO PUMP WARM AIR OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC. PLENTY OF SOLAR HEATING OCCURRED TODAY UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS. IN
RESPONSE...TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED NICELY FROM THE CHILLY
START THIS MORNING...SO HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO THE
UPPER 60S. IT IS A NICE AFTERNOON TO GET OUTSIDE AND ENJOY THE
SUNSHINE AND WARMTH FOR THE LAST DAY OF JANUARY...BECAUSE IT WILL
NOT LAST LONG WHEN FEBRUARY BEGINS.
BY TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST...AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. A DECENT LOW LEVEL
JET FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 40 KT...SHOULD BRING MORE MOISTURE.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...THICKENING CLOUD COVER...AND AMPLE MIXING
WOULD SUGGEST THAT LOWS WILL NOT DROP MUCH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A
LITTLE SNOW COVER STILL REMAINS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND THE
MIXING WILL NOT BE AS STRONG TO THE EAST. THUS...LOWS TONIGHT ARE
TRICKY DUE TO THESE COMPETING FACTORS...BUT IT SEEMS THAT THE
UPPER 30S TO THE UPPER 40S IS THE BEST RANGE TO UTILIZE.
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD ARRIVE ON MONDAY MORNING ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES...AND SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. POPS WERE INCREASED
TO HIGHLIGHT THE INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF RAIN IN THE LATEST
MODEL SOLUTIONS. QPF WILL ONLY REACH A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND LOWER AMOUNTS SHOULD FALL TO THE
EAST. THE MODELS HINT THAT SOME OF THE MOISTURE COULD CROSS OVER
THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT IT MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA
AND THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT. CLOUDY SKIES AND SHOWERS SHOULD
KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
IN THE PIEDMONT...LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN AND PEEKS OF SUNSHINE
COULD PUSH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 407 PM EST SUNDAY...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
EVENING...WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY...THEN TENDING NORTHEASTERLY
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A TUMBLE INTO THE 40S...POSSIBLY
REACHING THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY...BUT NOTHING BELOW FREEZING. IN SPITE OF THE LINGERING LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER THERE WILL BE LITTLE OR NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
PRECIP PRODUCTION...SO ANY THREAT FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT IS LESS THAN
50 PERCENT.
FOR TUESDAY...FRONT WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LEAVING
MOST OF OUR CWA WEDGED ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH SHALLOW
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS INTO NEW ENGLAND. A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY
SORT OF WIND WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST
THE EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...TEMPERATURES
RISING VERY LITTLE. ON THE FLIP SIDE...WEST SIDE...OF THE
APPALACHIAN DIVIDE...THERE SHOULD BE VERY LITTLE INFLUENCE FROM THE
COOL WEDGE...SO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SHOULD WARM
BACK INTO THE 50S/60S.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER DAY THIS WEEK AS A STRONG
STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST AND THROUGH OUR
FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
SOUTHWEST WINDS PUSHING THE OLD STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. CONVERGENCE OVER THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
ADDITION TO INCREASING UPSLOPE WIND FLOW ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF
THE APPALACHIANS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN/DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING IN INTENSITY TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL ON THE
RISE TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OCCURRING BEFORE
MIDNIGHT...THEN STEADILY RISING. RAIN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT...MID-DAY WEDNESDAY.
TYPICAL WITH THESE SORT OF SYSTEMS...AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURATED
GROUND FROM OUR EXISTING SNOW MELT...CONCERNS OF RAINFALL...WIND...
AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE CONSIDERED. HOWEVER...INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE MAIN DYNAMICS WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...THE
SYSTEM MOVING RATHER QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION...AND INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL AT BEST. AS A RESULT...QPF SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
ONE INCH...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH SNOW MELT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF PROBLEMS. THAT SAID...A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
WARRANTED FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE
OTHER HEADLINES ATTM.
THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. IN SPITE OF THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AS IT
ENCOUNTERS AN UPPER RIDGE OFF THE COAST. MODELS ALSO HINT THAT A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD...AT THE VERY LEAST RESULT IN LINGERING CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL SPIKE JUST PRIOR TO FROPA...POSSIBLY
REACHING THE 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL THEN TREND COLDER.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 407 PM EST SUNDAY...
A TREND TOWARD MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...MODELS STILL SOMEWHAT
TROUBLESOME ABOUT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE REMNANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THIS PRECIPITATION SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION
AND THIS PACKAGE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A DRY FORECAST FOR THE RNK
CWA IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THIS AGREES WITH WPC THINKING ATTM.
THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH IS DESTINED TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE
WEEKEND AND AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK AS SEVERAL
ALBERTA CLIPPERS TRACK THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS HELPING TO
REINFORCE AND DEEPEN THE TROUGH. SEVERAL SURGES OF CANADIAN/ARCTIC
AIR ARE PROGGED TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST...THE INTENSITY OF WHICH VARIES
ACCORDING TO WHATEVER MODEL YOU CHOOSE TO LOOK AT. NONETHELESS...A
TREND TOWARD NORMAL AND EVEN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEARS
LIKELY. QUESTION THEN BECOMES WILL THERE BE ANY SHORT WAVE ENERGY
TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO SPAWN SOMETHING THAT
WOULD PRODUCE MORE THAN JUST THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EST SUNDAY...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL REACH THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY MORNING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH 06Z/1AM OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND 09Z/4AM IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. NAM/GFS/RAP
AND 18Z LOCAL WRF ALL HAVE RAIN REACHING KBLF AND KLWB AROUND
12Z/7AM MONDAY MORNING. CEILINGS WILL BE MVFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE RAIN ADVANCES SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. DURING THE AFTERNOON...KDAN AND KLYH WILL
HAVE A BETTER PROBABILITY OF RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS. CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE RAIN.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR REMAINS IN THE TAFS OVERNIGHT WITH A LOW
LEVEL WSW JET THAT HAS SPEEDS CLOSE TO 50 KNOTS. THE FRONT WILL BE
CLOSE TO THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER BY THE 00Z/7PM END OF
TAF PERIOD.
ONCE THE BOUNDARY CROSSES THROUGH THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS THE WEDGE DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS...RAIN
WILL END BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR TO IFR. LOW CONFIDENCE AS
TO HOW LOW CEILINGS WILL BE AFTER THE FRONT GOES BY.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
BY TUESDAY...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND OVERRUNNING WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. A
PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN WILL ARRIVE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...AGAIN ALONG WITH IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY...AND PROVIDE
COLDER AIR ALONG WITH A RECOVERY TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
KFCX RADAR IS DOWN UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. TECHNICIANS WILL
INVESTIGATE EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...CF/PW
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/PW
EQUIPMENT...CF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS LA CROSSE WI
940 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
PRIMARY SNOW BAND FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS LIFTED NORTH AND INTO
EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WHILE IN A RELATIVE
LULL THIS EVENING...THERE HAVE BEEN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW MIXED AT
TIMES WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN/SLEET. SOME AREAS HAVE SEEN
A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE...RESULTING IN SLICK CONDITIONS. STILL SEEING
SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WEST OF THE MS RIVER...BUT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEEN LIMITED...SO LIKELY SEEING MORE OF A DRIFTING
THAN BLOWING SCENARIO.
03.03Z ANALYSIS SHOWS THE RESPONSIBLE SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL IA. TO THE NORTHWEST...THERE IS STRONG 925 TO 850
HPA FRONTOGENESIS AND THIS ALIGNS WELL WITH A MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW BAND FROM JUST EAST OF OMAHA TO CHARLES CITY. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS NOT HANDLING THIS SNOW BAND WELL...BUT FOLLOWING THE LOW-
LEVEL FORCING...THIS SNOW BAND SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE UPPER
MS RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 1SM AT TIMES...SO SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE. THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED
BY RATHER STRONG OMEGA IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE PER RAP BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. ALL SAID...LOOK FOR ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW
TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. BECAUSE
OF THIS...WILL NOT MAKE ANY HEADLINE CHANGES AT THIS TIME...
ALTHOUGH CERTAIN PORTIONS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 12Z
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
THE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES TO MAKE NORTHWARD PROGRESS ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH WHILE THE SECONDARY DEFORMATION BAND TAKES
SHAPE FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE 02.12Z
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF SHOWING A FRONTOGENESIS BAND
SETTING UP IN THIS REGION ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND SHOWING THIS TO BE ON THE WEAK SIDE. SO WHILE IT WILL
CONTINUE TO SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THIS DEFORMATION
AREA...ACCUMULATIONS UNDER THIS MAY ONLY BE A COUPLE OF INCHES AT
BEST.
FARTHER TO THE EAST OVER NORTHEAST IOWA INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...THE CONCERN STILL REMAINS WHETHER THERE WILL BE A LOSS
OF ICE IN THE DRY SLOT. THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE SHOULD
BE A TOTAL LOSS OF ICE OVER THIS AREA BUT CONCERNED THIS MAY NOT
BE OCCURRING. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES FROM SATELLITE DATA INDICATE
ICE IS STILL IN THE CLOUDS DOWN TO ABOUT CENTRAL IOWA AND THEN
THERE LOOKS TO A LOSS OF ICE. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS
LOSS OF ICE COMING INTO THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS FOR A CHANGE OVER
TO SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING RAIN. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME
ICING WITH A GLAZE OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES PAST THE AREA...THE WINDS WILL TURN MORE
TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP. WIND GUSTS OVERNIGHT FROM
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
SHOULD GET BACK INTO THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE TO PRODUCE SOME
BLOWING SNOW. JUST HOW MUCH BLOWING SNOW OCCURS COULD BE IMPACTED
ON WHETHER THE FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN OCCURS AND PUTS A HARD
COATING ON TOP OF THE SNOW.
THE 02.12Z MODEL DATA ALSO CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE OVERNIGHT WITH THE TAIL END OF THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS LATE TONIGHT. THIS FORCING LOOKS
TO BE ENOUGH AS ICE ALOFT COMES BACK INTO THE AREA TO PRODUCE A
SMALLER AREA OF ENHANCED SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOOKING TO GET
ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS SECONDARY PUSH.
BASED ON ALL THIS...THE ONLY PLANNED CHANGE TO THE CURRENT
HEADLINES TO TAKE THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE AREA AND DOWNGRADE
THE WARNING TO AN ADVISORY.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND
STILL LOOKING AT ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO COME DOWN OUT
OF CANADA AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE MOISTURE WILL NOT
HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE TO RECOVER AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SO ONLY
EXPECTING A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A BIT MORE LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND ALSO BRINGING IT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DROP ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE LOOKS TO BE A
LITTLE BIT STRONGER THAN THE THURSDAY WAVE...BUT AGAIN THERE WILL
BE VERY LIMITED TIME FOR ANY MOISTURE RETURN TO OCCUR. AS A
RESULT...NOT EXPECTING THIS WAVE TO BE ABLE TO PRODUCE MUCH SNOW
EITHER AND WILL HAVE SOME 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. THE PARADE OF NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEMS WILL THEN CONTINUE WITH
YET ANOTHER ONE COMING IN FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS
POINT...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGEST OF THESE NORTHWEST FLOW
SYSTEMS AND WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CARRY SOME 20 TO 40 PERCENT SNOW CHANCES
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES CENTERED ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 542 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION WITH PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW THAT MAY AT TIMES MIX WITH
FREEZING PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY AT KLSE. REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY FROM 1/2 TO 2SM DUE TO FALLING/BLOWING SNOW AND/OR
MIST/FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY BETWEEN 03.10Z AND 03.12Z AS
REMAINING SNOW MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WIND THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN PERIODIC BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW
AT KRST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ054-055-
061.
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
IA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ008>010-018-
019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ011-029-
030.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
934 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
PRIMARY SNOW BAND FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS LIFTED NORTH AND INTO
EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WHILE IN A RELATIVE
LULL THIS EVENING...THERE HAVE BEEN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW MIXED AT
TIMES WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN/SLEET. SOME AREAS HAVE SEEN
A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE...RESULTING IN SLICK CONDITIONS. STILL SEEING
SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WEST OF THE MS RIVER...BUT VISIBILITYRESTRICTIONS
HAVE BEEN LIMITED...SO LIKELY SEEING MORE OF A DRIFTING THAN
BLOWING SCENARIO.
03.03Z ANALYSIS SHOWS THE RESPONSIBLE SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL IA. TO THE NORTHWEST...THERE IS STRONG 925 TO 850
HPA FRONTOGENESIS AND THIS ALIGNS WELL WITH A MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW BAND FROM JUST EAST OF OMAHA TO CHARLES CITY. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS NOT HANDLING THIS SNOW BAND WELL...BUT FOLLOWING THE LOW-
LEVEL FORCING...THIS SNOW BAND SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE UPPER
MS RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 1SM AT TIMES...SO SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE. THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED
BY RATHER STRONG OMEGA IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE PER RAP BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. ALL SAID...LOOK FOR ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW
TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. BECAUSE
OF THIS...WILL NOT MAKE ANY HEADLINE CHANGES AT THIS TIME...
ALTHOUGH CERTAIN PORTIONS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 12Z
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
THE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES TO MAKE NORTHWARD PROGRESS ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH WHILE THE SECONDARY DEFORMATION BAND TAKES
SHAPE FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE 02.12Z
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF SHOWING A FRONTOGENESIS BAND
SETTING UP IN THIS REGION ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND SHOWING THIS TO BE ON THE WEAK SIDE. SO WHILE IT WILL
CONTINUE TO SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THIS DEFORMATION
AREA...ACCUMULATIONS UNDER THIS MAY ONLY BE A COUPLE OF INCHES AT
BEST.
FARTHER TO THE EAST OVER NORTHEAST IOWA INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...THE CONCERN STILL REMAINS WHETHER THERE WILL BE A LOSS
OF ICE IN THE DRY SLOT. THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE SHOULD
BE A TOTAL LOSS OF ICE OVER THIS AREA BUT CONCERNED THIS MAY NOT
BE OCCURRING. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES FROM SATELLITE DATA INDICATE
ICE IS STILL IN THE CLOUDS DOWN TO ABOUT CENTRAL IOWA AND THEN
THERE LOOKS TO A LOSS OF ICE. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS
LOSS OF ICE COMING INTO THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS FOR A CHANGE OVER
TO SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING RAIN. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME
ICING WITH A GLAZE OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES PAST THE AREA...THE WINDS WILL TURN MORE
TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP. WIND GUSTS OVERNIGHT FROM
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
SHOULD GET BACK INTO THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE TO PRODUCE SOME
BLOWING SNOW. JUST HOW MUCH BLOWING SNOW OCCURS COULD BE IMPACTED
ON WHETHER THE FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN OCCURS AND PUTS A HARD
COATING ON TOP OF THE SNOW.
THE 02.12Z MODEL DATA ALSO CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE OVERNIGHT WITH THE TAIL END OF THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS LATE TONIGHT. THIS FORCING LOOKS
TO BE ENOUGH AS ICE ALOFT COMES BACK INTO THE AREA TO PRODUCE A
SMALLER AREA OF ENHANCED SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOOKING TO GET
ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS SECONDARY PUSH.
BASED ON ALL THIS...THE ONLY PLANNED CHANGE TO THE CURRENT
HEADLINES TO TAKE THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE AREA AND DOWNGRADE
THE WARNING TO AN ADVISORY.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND
STILL LOOKING AT ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO COME DOWN OUT
OF CANADA AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE MOISTURE WILL NOT
HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE TO RECOVER AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SO ONLY
EXPECTING A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A BIT MORE LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND ALSO BRINGING IT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DROP ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE LOOKS TO BE A
LITTLE BIT STRONGER THAN THE THURSDAY WAVE...BUT AGAIN THERE WILL
BE VERY LIMITED TIME FOR ANY MOISTURE RETURN TO OCCUR. AS A
RESULT...NOT EXPECTING THIS WAVE TO BE ABLE TO PRODUCE MUCH SNOW
EITHER AND WILL HAVE SOME 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. THE PARADE OF NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEMS WILL THEN CONTINUE WITH
YET ANOTHER ONE COMING IN FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS
POINT...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGEST OF THESE NORTHWEST FLOW
SYSTEMS AND WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CARRY SOME 20 TO 40 PERCENT SNOW CHANCES
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES CENTERED ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 542 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION WITH PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW THAT MAY AT TIMES MIX WITH
FREEZING PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY AT KLSE. REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY FROM 1/2 TO 2SM DUE TO FALLING/BLOWING SNOW AND/OR
MIST/FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY BETWEEN 03.10Z AND 03.12Z AS
REMAINING SNOW MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WIND THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN PERIODIC BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW
AT KRST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ054-055-
061.
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
IA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ008>010-018-
019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ011-029-
030.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
300 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE UPCOMING WINTER STORM AND ITS IMPACT ON
THE LOCAL AREA. FROM A FORCING STANDPOINT....THE 01.12Z MODELS
HAVE NOT SHOWN MUCH CHANGE. STILL EXPECTING A ROUND OF STRONG PV
ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB TO COME ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH STRONG AND DEEP QG CONVERGENCE IN
THE 1000-300 MB LAYER. THE MODELS HAVE INCREASED THE AMOUNT OF
AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE DIVERGENCE
AHEAD OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. THE MODELS
DO SUGGEST THE FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY NOW BE A LITTLE
BIT MORE DISJOINTED. A BAND OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 750-550
MB LAYER WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MAIN PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. A
SECONDARY AND SOMEWHAT WEAKER BAND THEN DEVELOPS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE STILL DOES NOT
LOOK TO BE HUGE WITH THIS SYSTEM...ON THE ORDER OF 50 TO 100
MB...BUT THE LIFT THROUGH THIS ZONE CONTINUES TO LOOK TO BE VERY
STRONG TO HELP PRODUCE THE SNOW. THIS STILL POINTS TO A BAND OF 8
TO AS MUCH OF 12 INCHES FALLING FROM THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA NORTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
THE TWO THINGS THAT HAVE CHANGED WITH THE LATEST MODEL DATA IS A
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THIS NOW
LOOKS TO COME OUT OF NORTHERN MISSOURI LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...MOVE ACROSS EASTERN IOWA TUESDAY EVENING INTO
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHIFT IN THE TRACK
PUSHES THE BAND OF HIGHEST SNOWFALL FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST AS
WELL WITH THE GREATEST TOTALS NOW EXPECTED MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A
LINE FROM CHARLES CITY IOWA TO ABOUT SPARTA WISCONSIN OR SO. THE
OTHER IMPACT WILL BE TO BRING IN THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT MORE
INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH THE POSSIBLE INTRODUCTION OF A LOSS OF
ICE. WORKING THIS DATA INTO THE FORECAST RESULTS IN MORE OF A
POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY MIX OVER NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN WHICH CUTS DOWN ON THE SNOW AMOUNTS IN THAT AREA BUT
INTRODUCES MORE OF A POTENTIAL FOR SOME ICE ACCUMULATIONS. THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCH CLOSELY AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS FOR FURTHER
REFINEMENTS.
A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS NOW SHOWN BY THE MODELS TO TRAIL
BEHIND THE MAIN SYSTEM. THIS WAVE LOOKS TO COME ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS SHOULD NOT
HAVE MUCH OVERALL IMPACT ON THE AREA...IT WILL SERVE TO MAINTAIN
THE LIGHT SNOW LONGER. INCREASED THE SNOW CHANCES FOR THE LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT HOURS INTO THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE AND THEN HELD
ONTO 50 PERCENT OR HIGHER ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTION WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH A 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES. WILL MAINTAIN THE
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. STILL EXPECTING SOME
BLOWING AND DRIFTING TO OCCUR...BUT WITH THE LOW COMING FARTHER TO
THE NORTHWEST...THE AXIS OF HIGHER WINDS WILL BE PUSHED TO THE
NORTHWEST AS WELL...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PROLONGED PERIODS OF
LOW VISIBILITIES FROM THE BLOWING SNOW. STILL THINK THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF LOW VISIBILITIES BUT THESE SHOULD BE TIED MORE TO WHEN
THE WINDS GUSTS OCCUR VERSUS BEING TIED TO THE SUSTAINED WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
STILL LOOKING AT NORTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. WITH THE
MAIN SNOW STORM LINGERING LONGER THAN EXPECTED...THIS NEXT WAVE
WILL HAVE EVEN LESS MOISTURE TO WORK...SO IT MAY ONLY BE ABLE TO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS. ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW THEN LOOKS TO COME ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS. A THIRD AND STRONGEST SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THIS
NORTHWEST FLOW THEN IS EXPECTED TO COME ACROSS FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WAVE SHOULD HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE OF PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AND WILL
CARRY SOME 30 PERCENT CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016
KAAL WEB CAM IS SHOWING THAT THE CEILING HAS BEEN RISING OUT OF
THE ZUMBRO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THIS
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RISE AND DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...WE EXPECT THAT THE DENSE FOG AT KRST WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE BY 01.19Z.
LIKE YESTERDAY...THE NAM AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW TOO MUCH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 2K FEET...THEREFORE...TRENDED THE TAF
FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE GFS. WITH THIS IN MIND...THERE ARE VFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 02.10Z AND THEN EXPECT A MVFR
VISIBILITY TO DEVELOP DUE TO FOG.
ON TUESDAY MORNING...THE SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE SNOW
WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT KRST BETWEEN
02.13Z AND 02.14Z...AND AT KLSE BETWEEN 02.14Z AND 02.15Z. HOURLY
SNOW RATES UP TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR LOOK POSSIBLE FOR KRST...AND
MAYBE UP TO AN INCH AN HOUR AT KLSE BETWEEN 02.15Z AND 03.00Z.
TOTAL SNOWFALL BY NOON WILL BE AROUND 4 INCHES AT BOTH TAF SITES.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
WIZ053>055-061.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044.
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
MNZ094>096.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
MNZ079-086>088.
IA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1149 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016
OBVIOUSLY THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE ONSET OF THE WINTER
STORM WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. THE STORM
COMPLEX THAT WILL BRING OUR WINTRY FUN WAS SPINNING OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AT 08Z AND WILL BE CROSSING THE ROCKIES THIS
MORNING. BY EVENING...THE STORM WILL BE ZIPPING ACROSS KS...AND
SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE CHICAGO/MILWAUKEE AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING.
THIS VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM IS MOVING RATHER QUICKLY...BUT THE
IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF LIFT BEING GENERATED WILL LEAD TO SNOWFALL
RATES THAT SHOULD OFFSET THE SPEED.
THE AREA WILL START OUT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...THANKS TO THE
PASSAGE OF A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON
FAST NORTHWEST FLOW. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE
TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL. FULL SUN THE PAST TWO DAYS ALLOWED FOR SOME
BALMY TEMPS FOR LATE JANUARY. AND CONCERNED TODAY COULD ALSO BE
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE IF THE CLOUDS HOLD OFF. DID INCREASE HIGH
TEMPS TODAY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM START.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOW SHOULD MAKE IT TO IA BY EVENING...AND
IS EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHEAST IA AND SOUTHWEST WI SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BUT THE LARGER SCALE SNOWS WILL START TUESDAY MORNING
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. THE LIFT SEEN IS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE DIFLUENCE ALOFT AND
STRONG UPPER JET. CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE LAYERS ALSO SEEN IN THE
BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS. LOOKING AT NEARLY AN INCH OF LIQUID
WATER AVAILABLE WITH THIS...SO SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS APPEAR
LIKELY.
AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...THERE HAS BEEN SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND WHERE THE
HEAVIEST SNOW BAND WILL SET UP. BUT THE VARIOUS COMPUTER MODEL
SIMULATIONS HAVE BEEN REMARKABLY CLOSE ON PLACEMENT...WITH ONLY
VERY MINOR SHIFTS. THE TREND OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS HAS BEEN FOR A
BIT FASTER ONSET AND END...WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT NORTHWARD JOG.
BUT OVERALL IT APPEARS OUR FORECAST REMAINS SQUARELY IN THE PATH
FOR THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS...WITH AMOUNTS OF 6 TO AS MUCH AS 11
INCHES EXPECTED. WITH THAT IN MIND...WE HAVE DECIDED IT IS TIME TO
UPGRADE TO WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. THE FINAL CONCERN IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIND TO CAUSE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. WE WILL BE SEEING
WIND GUSTS UP AROUND 30 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
THE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHERN MN AND NORTHERN IA. THIS WILL LIKELY
MOVE SOME SNOW AROUND...WITH DRIFTING AND LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW
AND SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY. BUT NOT SOLD THAT THIS WILL BE ENOUGH
TO ACTUALLY WARRANT A BLIZZARD HEADLINE. USE OF LOCAL BLOWING SNOW
TOOLS SUPPORT ONLY LIMITED IMPACTS...SO AFTER MULLING OVER THE
IDEA...HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING EVERYWHERE
AND NOT UTILIZE ANY BLIZZARD HEADLINES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016
THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ONLY LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW OVER EASTERN WI EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE AREA REMAINS IN
BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGHING...WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES OCCASIONALLY
DROPPING IN. THE FIRST MAY BRING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY TO
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMES IN
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER. BEHIND
OUR DEPARTING STORM...EXPECT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
THURSDAY MORNING. BUT THEN SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE 2ND
DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO GET WELL INTO THE 20S. THEN A DIP
BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BEFORE SOUTH WINDS RETURN TO BACK UP
CLOSER TO 30.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016
KAAL WEB CAM IS SHOWING THAT THE CEILING HAS BEEN RISING OUT OF
THE ZUMBRO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THIS
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RISE AND DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...WE EXPECT THAT THE DENSE FOG AT KRST WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE BY 01.19Z.
LIKE YESTERDAY...THE NAM AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW TOO MUCH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 2K FEET...THEREFORE...TRENDED THE TAF
FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE GFS. WITH THIS IN MIND...THERE ARE VFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 02.10Z AND THEN EXPECT A MVFR
VISIBILITY TO DEVELOP DUE TO FOG.
ON TUESDAY MORNING...THE SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE SNOW
WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT KRST BETWEEN
02.13Z AND 02.14Z...AND AT KLSE BETWEEN 02.14Z AND 02.15Z. HOURLY
SNOW RATES UP TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR LOOK POSSIBLE FOR KRST...AND
MAYBE UP TO AN INCH AN HOUR AT KLSE BETWEEN 02.15Z AND 03.00Z.
TOTAL SNOWFALL BY NOON WILL BE AROUND 4 INCHES AT BOTH TAF SITES.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
WIZ053>055-061.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044.
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
MNZ094>096.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
MNZ079-086>088.
IA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
403 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TODAY AND THEN UP INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...SENDING
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ON
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL
JUST OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND LINGER THERE UNTIL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A
DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION BY TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BEFORE 10 AM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AS POTENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION.
SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS WHICH WILL
SLOW PRECIP ARRIVAL FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN FACT MOST OF THE
NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS HIGHER THETA-E VALUES REMAIN SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE AREA. LATEST HRRR...RGEM AND RAP DATA SHOWS PRECIP WILL
BEING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MASS AROUND 12-14Z. HOWEVER BULK OF THE
OTHER GUIDANCE IS SLOWER...AROUND 15Z. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPS
AND WHEN EXACTLY PRECIP WILL MOVE THROUGH...THERE COULD BE A RISK
FOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERKS AND EXTREME
NORTHERN MASS. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON IF THIS WILL OCCUR SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. IN
FACT...TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED STEADY OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND HAVE BEGUN TO RISEN IN A FEW LOCATIONS. AS THE WARM
FRONT APPROACHES...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE OUT OR THE
SOUTHEAST WHICH COULD HELP MOISTEN UP THE LOW LEVELS WITH THE
MARITIME AIR.
TODAY...
OVERVIEW: ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY
AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BY TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A WARM
FRONT THIS MORNING AN A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING. DYNAMIC BLOCKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC APPEARS TO
STALL THE FRONT BY THURSDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL: OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE MORNING
FROM WEST TO EAST. BULK OF THE PRECIP IN THE MORNING WILL REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN MASS OR EVEN NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS MAY KEEP MOST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRY. HOWEVER THE REGION WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND VERY MOIST AIR WILL BE SPILLING INTO THE REGION. THIS MAY
ALLOW FOR FOG AND DRIZZLE...WITH PERHAPS EVEN A FEW SHOWERS DURING
THE LATE MORNING HOURS. BULK OF THE PRECIP HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION BY 18-21Z.
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...ANTICIPATE HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PWATS AROUND 1.3 INCHES...ABOUT 4 TO 6 SD ABOVE
NORMAL...AND A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...3-4 SD ABOVE
NORMAL...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROF TAPPING
INTO GULF MOISTURE...ALL POINT TOWARDS THE POTENTIAL OF A GOOD SLUG
OF RAINFALL DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST RAINFALL AT THIS TIME IS
1 TO 1.5 INCHES. HOWEVER AMOUNTS COULD BE HIGHER AS THIS SYSTEM IS
OVER ACHIEVING WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR...THE GLOBAL MODELS
HAVE BEEN UNDERDONE WITH AMOUNTS IN THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHEAST EARLY
THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 18-00Z.
WIND: 925 MB JET INCREASES BETWEEN 60-70 KTS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LAPSE RATES ARE POOR ACROSS THE REGION
LIMITING ANY MIXING POTENTIAL. SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT SHOWING 50-60
KTS ABOUT 2.5 KFT WITH AN INVERSION. HOWEVER IS THE PROFILE BECOME
MOIST ADIABATIC OR IF SHOWERS/T-STORMS TAP INTO THE LLJ IT COULD MIX
DOWN STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WIND GUSTS COULD REACH BETWEEN 30-40 MPH
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS LOCATION IS
BEST FOR CONVECTION AND EVEN TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO 60F WHICH
COULD INCREASE THE MIXING POTENTIAL A BIT.
TEMPERATURES: LASTLY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. THERE WAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SPOTS HITTING 60F BUT BELIEVE THAT WILL BE TOUGH AS CLOUD
COVER WILL BE THICK AND LIMIT ANY RADIATIONAL HEATING. ALSO APPEARS
THAT THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL OCCUR AFTER 21-00Z AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...APPEARS THAT THE
COLD FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN BY EARLY THURSDAY AM THANKS TO NORTH
ATLANTIC RIDGE.
BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING AROUND 00Z BUT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
OFFSHORE BY 06Z. PRECIP WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.
HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION FOR THUNDER DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL ALSO INCREASE THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS WELL AS BRING DOWN ANY GUSTY WINDS.
LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. IN FACT 925 MB JET STRENGTHENS BETWEEN 60-70 KTS. AGAIN
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG INVERSION EVEN OVER THE WATERS.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...BETWEEN 20-30 MPH.
HOWEVER GUSTS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AFTER 06Z.
FINALLY TEMPERATURES MAY WARM RIGHT AROUND 00-03Z WHEN THE WARMEST
925 MB TEMPS OCCUR. USED A NON-DIURNAL TREND TONIGHT FOR
TEMPERATURES AS CAA WONT TRULY TAKE PLACE UNTIL AFTER 06-09Z.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
LONGWAVE SCALE SHOWS A TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND RIDGE ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST LATE THIS WEEK...ALL SHIFTING EAST OVER THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WHILE
ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA. MEANWHILE MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH A TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY...SWINGING WELL
OFFSHORE AND THEN NORTH INTO NOVA SCOTIA. THE THIRD SHORTWAVE
AMPLIFIES THE MIDWEST TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRINGS THE FLOW
EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS UP THE EAST COAST.
THIS PATTERN SUGGESTS LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH/EAST NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE THURSDAY-FRIDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL STORM MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES COOL BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST.
THE DAILIES...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH THEN CROSSES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND TURNS THE UPPER FLOW WESTERLY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALIGN
WITH AND STALL THE COLD FRONT JUST OFFSHORE UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH. MEANWHILE THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD DURING THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
INDUCE A WAVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT...PUSHING THE PCPN SHIELD BACK
ACROSS EASTERN MASS AND RI. TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART WILL SUPPORT
RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW...BUT COOLING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING MAY BRING A
PERIOD OF SNOW OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW THAT COULD LEAVE A COATING TO AN
INCH.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A CLIPPER LOW ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NORTH. SO EXPECT
A DRY FROPA WITH PATCHY CLOUDS.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
TWO SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC WILL GO FEET-DRY...THE
FIRST TONIGHT AND THE SECOND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE FORMS
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST USA COAST AND THEN CARRIES IT WELL
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. ITS MAIN EFFECT ON NEW ENGLAND WOULD
BE TO COMBINE WITH CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE TO BRING AN EAST FLOW
ONSHORE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME
LIGHT PCPN. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND DIGS A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA BY MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW A PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOW TUESDAY. THIS WOULD BRING PCPN INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
PRIMARILY ON TUESDAY. THE FASTEST MODEL QPF REACHES OUR AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY ON TUESDAY AND THE SLOWER ONSET ON TUESDAY. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD AIR OVER EASTERN CANADA THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR INITIAL SNOW WITH A CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN ANY
CASE...THAT/S A LOT OF DETAILS FOR A SYSTEM STILL OVER THE PACIFIC
OCEAN. BECAUSE IT IS SO FAR OUT IN SPACE AND TIME...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THROUGH 10Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH LOW VSBYS. MOSTLY
RAIN IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER AT THE ONSET COULD SEE -FZRA BETWEEN
12-15Z FOR KORE AND POINTS NW. OTHERWISE...ISOLD TSRA PSBL LATE
WED INTO WED NIGHT ESP ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF RI/MA. SE WIND
GUSTS 25-35 KTS PSBL WED. LLWS IS POSSIBLE DUE TO INVERSION.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIP
COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO IN EITHER DIRECTION OF FORECAST.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIP
COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO IN EITHER DIRECTION OF FORECAST.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE
THURSDAY-FRIDAY... VFR...EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD/ISLANDS/SOUTH
COAST IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY
AND NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
BOTH WIND AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A
STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL HELP SEAS BUILD CLOSE TO
8-10 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. THIS POTENT JET WILL ALSO ALLOW
FOR SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE GUSTS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS ACROSS EASTERN
WATERS. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS
AS WELL AS GUSTS WILL BE 35 KTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SCA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WATERS LIMITING
VSBYS...THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED THUNDER WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS EACH DAY. SEAS 5-7 FEET ON
THE RI WATERS THURSDAY AND THE OUTER WATERS BOTH DAYS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THOSE ROUGH SEAS.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS BELOW 25 KT SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY. WIND SHIFT TO A NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND WITH
GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS BY EVENING. SEAS BELOW 5 FEET BOTH DAYS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE SUNDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR FEB 3RD - 4TH...
BOS...59/1991 - 64/1991
BDL...61/1991 - 64/1991
PVD...60/1991 - 66/1991
ORH...57/1909 - 61/1991
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ231-232-255-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251-254.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
CLIMATE...STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
358 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WED AND UP INTO EASTERN CANADA WED NIGHT...SENDING A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ON
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST
OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND LINGER THERE UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION BY TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
100 AM UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND SURFACE HIGH HAS BEGUN TO MOVE
OFFSHORE AS POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION. SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS WHICH WILL SLOW PRECIP ARRIVAL TIME FOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN FACT MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
AS HIGHER THETA-E VALUES REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA.
LATEST HRRR...RGEM AND RAP DATA SHOWS PRECIP WILL BEING TO MOVE
INTO WESTERN MASS AROUND 12-14Z. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPS THERE
COULD BE A RISK FOR FREEZING RAIN. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON IF
THIS WILL OCCUR SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LIMITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
RISE LATE TONIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE OUT OR THE SOUTHEAST WHICH COULD HELP MOISTEN
UP THE LOW LEVELS WITH THE MARITIME AIR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS STORM...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION.
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN...WILL OVERSPREAD
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT
TIMING OF ONSET...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE
COLDER VALLEYS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES AND NORTHERN
WORCESTER COUNTY. SEE NEAR TERM SECTION FOR MORE ON THIS POTENTIAL.
ANY FREEZING RAIN SHOULD CHANGEOVER TO RAIN QUICKLY AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS BRING IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. EXPECTING 1 TO 1.5 INCHES
OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS AND A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET. MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE WET FOR MOST AREAS.
EXPECT PRECIP TO START TO COME TO AN END ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES
SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY MORNING.
THUNDER...HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER FOR AREAS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS
INDICATE SOME MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
WINDS...THERE IS A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET MOVING OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THIS STORM. WINDS 1-2KFT OFF THE SURFACE
WILL BE 50 TO 60 KTS. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DECENT
INVERSION IN PLACE THAT WILL LIMIT THESE STRONGER GUSTS FROM
REACHING THE SURFACE. FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECTING WINDS TO GUST
UP TO ABOUT 35 MPH WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
HOWEVER...IF SHOWERS OR ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO TAP
INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...WE MAY SEE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN AND
AROUND THOSE STORMS.
TEMPERATURES...QUITE MILD AS THE SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING WARMER AIR
INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE
REGION...DESPITE THE RAIN AND CLOUDS. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL
ACTUALLY BE DURING THE EVENING HOURS JUST PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
LONGWAVE SCALE SHOWS A TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND RIDGE ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST LATE THIS WEEK...ALL SHIFTING EAST OVER THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WHILE
ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA. MEANWHILE MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH A TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY...SWINGING WELL
OFFSHORE AND THEN NORTH INTO NOVA SCOTIA. THE THIRD SHORTWAVE
AMPLIFIES THE MIDWEST TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRINGS THE FLOW
EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS UP THE EAST COAST.
THIS PATTERN SUGGESTS LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH/EAST NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE THURSDAY-FRIDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL STORM MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES COOL BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST.
THE DAILIES...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH THEN CROSSES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND TURNS THE UPPER FLOW WESTERLY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALIGN
WITH AND STALL THE COLD FRONT JUST OFFSHORE UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH. MEANWHILE THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD DURING THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
INDUCE A WAVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT...PUSHING THE PCPN SHIELD BACK
ACROSS EASTERN MASS AND RI. TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART WILL SUPPORT
RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW...BUT COOLING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING MAY BRING A
PERIOD OF SNOW OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW THAT COULD LEAVE A COATING TO AN
INCH.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A CLIPPER LOW ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NORTH. SO EXPECT
A DRY FROPA WITH PATCHY CLOUDS.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
TWO SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC WILL GO FEET-DRY...THE
FIRST TONIGHT AND THE SECOND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE FORMS
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST USA COAST AND THEN CARRIES IT WELL
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. ITS MAIN EFFECT ON NEW ENGLAND WOULD
BE TO COMBINE WITH CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE TO BRING AN EAST FLOW
ONSHORE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME
LIGHT PCPN. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND DIGS A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA BY MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW A PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOW TUESDAY. THIS WOULD BRING PCPN INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
PRIMARILY ON TUESDAY. THE FASTEST MODEL QPF REACHES OUR AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY ON TUESDAY AND THE SLOWER ONSET ON TUESDAY. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD AIR OVER EASTERN CANADA THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR INITIAL SNOW WITH A CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN ANY
CASE...THAT/S A LOT OF DETAILS FOR A SYSTEM STILL OVER THE PACIFIC
OCEAN. BECAUSE IT IS SO FAR OUT IN SPACE AND TIME...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THROUGH 10Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH LOW VSBYS. MOSTLY
RAIN IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER AT THE ONSET COULD SEE -FZRA BETWEEN
12-15Z FOR KORE AND POINTS NW. OTHERWISE...ISOLD TSRA PSBL LATE
WED INTO WED NIGHT ESP ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF RI/MA. SE WIND
GUSTS 25-35 KTS PSBL WED. LLWS IS POSSIBLE DUE TO INVERSION.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIP
COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO IN EITHER DIRECTION OF FORECAST.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIP
COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO IN EITHER DIRECTION OF FORECAST.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE
THURSDAY-FRIDAY... VFR...EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD/ISLANDS/SOUTH
COAST IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY
AND NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE WATERS
WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE DAY WITH GALE FORCE WINDS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN GALE
FORCE WINDS IS ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS WHERE GALE WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS...CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE GALE WATCH FOR THE TIME BEING.
EITHER THE GALES ARE MARGINAL IN THESE AREAS...OR THEY ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO LAST FOR A FEW HOURS. SEAS INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 FEET ON
THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE EASTERN WATERS AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS EACH DAY. SEAS 5-7 FEET ON
THE RI WATERS THURSDAY AND THE OUTER WATERS BOTH DAYS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THOSE ROUGH SEAS.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS BELOW 25 KT SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY. WIND SHIFT TO A NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND WITH
GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS BY EVENING. SEAS BELOW 5 FEET BOTH DAYS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE SUNDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR FEB 3RD - 4TH...
BOS...59/1991 - 64/1991
BDL...61/1991 - 64/1991
PVD...60/1991 - 66/1991
ORH...57/1909 - 61/1991
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ231-232-255-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ250-251-254.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/RLG
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1259 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WED AND UP INTO EASTERN CANADA WED NIGHT...SENDING A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ON
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF
THE COAST THU AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRES TRACKS TO THE EAST OF NEW
ENG THU NIGHT INTO FRI. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
THIS WEEKEND...THEN A COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
100 AM UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND SURFACE HIGH HAS BEGUN TO MOVE
OFFSHORE AS POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION. SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS WHICH WILL SLOW PRECIP ARRIVAL TIME FOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN FACT MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
AS HIGHER THETA-E VALUES REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA.
LATEST HRRR...RGEM AND RAP DATA SHOWS PRECIP WILL BEING TO MOVE
INTO WESTERN MASS AROUND 12-14Z. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPS THERE
COULD BE A RISK FOR FREEZING RAIN. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON IF
THIS WILL OCCUR SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LIMITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
RISE LATE TONIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE OUT OR THE SOUTHEAST WHICH COULD HELP MOISTEN
UP THE LOW LEVELS WITH THE MARITIME AIR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS STORM...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION.
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN...WILL OVERSPREAD
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT
TIMING OF ONSET...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE
COLDER VALLEYS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES AND NORTHERN
WORCESTER COUNTY. SEE NEAR TERM SECTION FOR MORE ON THIS POTENTIAL.
ANY FREEZING RAIN SHOULD CHANGEOVER TO RAIN QUICKLY AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS BRING IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. EXPECTING 1 TO 1.5 INCHES
OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS AND A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET. MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE WET FOR MOST AREAS.
EXPECT PRECIP TO START TO COME TO AN END ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES
SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY MORNING.
THUNDER...HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER FOR AREAS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS
INDICATE SOME MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
WINDS...THERE IS A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET MOVING OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THIS STORM. WINDS 1-2KFT OFF THE SURFACE
WILL BE 50 TO 60 KTS. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DECENT
INVERSION IN PLACE THAT WILL LIMIT THESE STRONGER GUSTS FROM
REACHING THE SURFACE. FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECTING WINDS TO GUST
UP TO ABOUT 35 MPH WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
HOWEVER...IF SHOWERS OR ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO TAP
INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...WE MAY SEE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN AND
AROUND THOSE STORMS.
TEMPERATURES...QUITE MILD AS THE SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING WARMER AIR
INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE
REGION...DESPITE THE RAIN AND CLOUDS. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL
ACTUALLY BE DURING THE EVENING HOURS JUST PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE SE NEW ENG THU
* ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN POSSIBLE THU NIGHT SE NEW ENG CHANGING TO
SNOW IF PRECIP MAKES IT FAR ENOUGH WEST INTO NEW ENG
* DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND
* A COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THURSDAY...
LONGWAVE TROF BACK ACROSS CENTRAL US WITH SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NEW
ENG. COLD FRONT WILL SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS AND LIKELY STALL OFF
THE SE NEW ENG COAST WHICH WILL CONTINUE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS AS DEEP MOISTURE AXIS
REMAINS NEAR THE COAST. OTHERWISE...MODELS SHOW EXCELLENT MID LEVEL
DRYING MOVING INTO W NEW ENG WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PTSUNNY
SKIES FURTHER WEST IN THE INTERIOR. TEMPS STARTING OUT RATHER
MILD...ESPECIALLY SE NEW ENG WHERE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
50S...BUT THERE IS A FAIRLY SHARP LOW LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS SNE
SO EXPECT 40S FURTHER BACK IN THE INTERIOR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
SHARP MID LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH FAIRLY ROBUST
SHORTWAVE LEADING TO A WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE OFFSHORE FRONT THU
NIGHT. THE QUESTION BECOMES TO WHAT EXTENT WILL THIS BACK DEEP
MOISTURE PLUME INTO NEW ENG. ECMWF AND GGEM BRING PRECIP BACK WEST
OF THE I95 CORRIDOR WITH ECMWF A BIT SLOWER AND LINGERING PRECIP
INTO FRI...AND BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO SE NEW ENG AS THE
COLUMN COOLS. GFS FURTHER EAST AND CONFINE PRECIP TO CAPE/ISLANDS.
WE USED A BLEND OF GEFS AND ECMWF EPS WHICH REPRESENTS SOMEWHAT OF A
COMPROMISE. WE WILL INCREASE POPS THU NIGHT ACROSS SE NEW ENG
BRINGING CHC TO SE MA AND RI WITH LIKELY FOR CAPE/ISLANDS. THE
COLUMN IS COOLING FROM THE WEST DURING THU NIGHT SO ANY SHOWERS
WOULD CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF SNOW IF THE PRECIP MAKES IT FAR ENOUGH
WEST. THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR SOME MINOR ACCUM FAR SE MA AND CAPE
COD BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WILL DEPEND ON PRECIP MAKING IT BACK
ACROSS THE REGION. SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY
IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. TREND WILL BE FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS
FRI...ALTHOUGH TIMING IS NOT CERTAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
INTO FRI MORNING IF TIMING IS SLOWER.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
LOOKS MAINLY DRY DURING THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRES IN CONTROL TO THE
SOUTH OF NEW ENG SAT...THEN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE BRINGS A COLD
FRONT INTO NEW ENG SUNDAY...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
COMPLEX PATTERN DEVELOPING AS AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM TROF MOVES
ACROSS THE GT LAKES WHILE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
LIFTS NE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LARGE OCEAN
STORM TRACKING WELL TO THE S OF NEW ENG. MOST OF THE GEFS AND ECMWF
EPS MEMBERS ARE ALSO WELL OFFSHORE BUT THIS IS DAY 6 AND HOW THIS
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROF IS UNCERTAIN SO
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND NORTHERN STREAM TROF PER ECMWF
SOLUTION WHICH SPINS UP ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT COASTAL LOW S OF NEW ENG
NEXT TUE. OBVIOUSLY A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS TIME RANGE BUT
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THROUGH 10Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH LOW VSBYS. MOSTLY
RAIN IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER AT THE ONSET COULD SEE -FZRA BETWEEN
12-15Z FOR KORE AND POINTS NW. OTHERWISE...ISOLD TSRA PSBL LATE
WED INTO WED NIGHT ESP ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF RI/MA. SE WIND
GUSTS 25-35 KTS PSBL WED. LLWS IS POSSIBLE DUE TO INVERSION.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIP
COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO IN EITHER DIRECTION OF FORECAST.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIP
COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO IN EITHER DIRECTION OF FORECAST.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE
THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR IN THE INTERIOR...BUT AREAS
OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE SE NEW ENG
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR INTERIOR. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXTENT OF ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN AND ASSOCD MVFR/IFR BACKING IN
ACROSS SE NEW ENG THU NIGHT WHICH WOULD CHANGE TO SNOW IF PRECIP
MAKES IT FAR ENOUGH WEST...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS FRI.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE WATERS
WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE DAY WITH GALE FORCE WINDS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN GALE
FORCE WINDS IS ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS WHERE GALE WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS...CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE GALE WATCH FOR THE TIME BEING.
EITHER THE GALES ARE MARGINAL IN THESE AREAS...OR THEY ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO LAST FOR A FEW HOURS. SEAS INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 FEET ON
THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE EASTERN WATERS AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE...
THURSDAY...LIGHT W/NW WINDS...BUT SEAS 5-8 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS
IN LINGERING S SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS AND REDUCED VSBYS POSSIBLE
WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD.
THU NIGHT AND FRI...INCREASING NW WINDS TO 20 KT WITH LOW PROB FOR A
FEW G25 KT. SCA SEAS PERSIST OVER OUTER WATERS. VSBYS POSSIBLY
REDUCED IN A PERIOD OF RAIN OVER WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD
THU NIGHT WHICH COULD CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS...IMPROVING FRI.
SATURDAY...INCREASING SW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT DEVELOPING
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SUNDAY...WINDS TURNING NW WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY BELOW SCA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR FEB 3RD - 4TH...
BOS...59/1991 - 64/1991
BDL...61/1991 - 64/1991
PVD...60/1991 - 66/1991
ORH...57/1909 - 61/1991
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
ANZ231>237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ250-251-254.
GALE WATCH FROM 7 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/RLG
CLIMATE...STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1138 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 851 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
Low pressure center associated with ongoing strong storm system is
currently near the western Iowa/Missouri border area. An occluded
boundary extends east southeast from the low across the northern
2/3 or so of the forecast area. The weak pressure gradient in the
vicinity of this boundary and associated light winds, coupled with
moisture from today`s rains and a strong low level inversion, has
allowed dense fog to develop. The dense fog has been spreading
east with time behind the convective line that is currently just
east of the I-57 corridor. Have recently expanded Dense Fog
Advisory across all but far SE portion of forecast area to account
for current and expected fog development. As the surface low lifts
slowly northeast overnight, winds will become gusty out of the
southwest and help to dissipate the fog.
Otherwise, once the thin convective line in far eastern portion of
the forecast area departs, the balance of the night should be dry.
West central Illinois may see some light snow/flurries by daybreak
as the deformation zone of the system slides by. But, by and
large, expect any snow to hold off until the morning hours
Wednesday. However, do not expect any accumulation at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
Surface map at 20Z/2 pm showed strong 993 mb low pressure along the
eastern KS/NE border with an occluding front extending through
northern MO into southern IL. Another boundary/warm front was just
south of Peoria and just north of BMI with some fog along and north
of this boundary. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms were
over central IL at mid afternoon mainly east of a Galesburg to St
Louis line and tracking NNE. A narrow band of heavier rains with
some thunder was along I-55 from Springfield to Bloomington.
Meanwhile a dry slot with clearing skies was over central and
southern MO and moving northeast toward SW IL.
Temps ranged from 37F at Galesburg and Lacon where east winds
persisted to 57F along highway 50 at Flora, Lawrenceville and Mount
Carmel airports where se winds were veering SSE. Pressure gradient
has weakened a bit during the day across central IL so ESE winds not
quite as strong ranging from 10-20 mph and gusts of 20-30 mph at mid
afternoon.
The HRRR model has been doing fairly well with convection so far
today and leaned on this model going into this evening. It has the
showers and isolated thunderstorms ending over western CWA late this
afternoon and in eastern IL during early/mid evening with most areas
dry by 9 or 10 pm. SPC still have slight risk of severe storms this
afternoon southeast of Terre Haute to Flora line where 15% risk of
damaging wind gusts and 5% risk of tornadoes and large hail. Better
threat of severe storms is over more unstable airmass in far
southeast IL into KY and sw IN from I-64 south.
Low pressure to track northeast to near Dubuque by 09Z/3 am and into
southeast WI by sunrise Wed. A strong short wave/trof to push into
the IL river valley between 09-12Z Wed (3-6 am Wed) and have slight
chances of light rain or light snow later tonight. Lows late tonight
to range from mid 30s over the IL river valley (33F at Galesburg) to
the lower 40s near the Wabash river (42F at Lawrenceville). SE winds
to turn SW by overnight and range from 8-16 mph overall tonight.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
Tomorrow, the low will be pushing through the Great Lakes region
with a trailing sfc trough that will rotate through northern IL.
This sfc trough will also coincide with the 500mb trough that will
mover through the area. The combination of these two features will
bring a slight chance of light snow or rain to northwestern parts of
the CWA Wed morning. By afternoon all pcpn will have moved off to
the northeast, out of the CWA. Brief high pressure will move through
the area after this weather system moves through, along with the
pattern changing to a long wave trough pattern. This trough pattern
will bring another sfc trough through the area Thursday night, but
there will be a severe lack of moisture, so no pcpn is expected.
Then dry weather will be expected through the rest of the week and
into the the weekend. Temps will hover around normal through the
rest of the week and then will warm to above normal levels for the
weekend.
At the end of the weekend and the beginning of next week a northwest
flow pattern will setup over the area and looks like it may hang
around for an extended period. This northwest flow will allow a
series of clippers to move southeast through the Great Lakes area,
Sunday night through Tuesday. For now, will just keep the slight
chance of pcpn that the blended forecast has. Once the clippers
begin to move through, colder air will be allowed to pour into the
area and bring temps back to below normal.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
Moisture trapped beneath a low level inversion, coupled with weak
winds in the vicinity of an occluded frontal boundary, has
resulted in widespread IFR stratus/fog. The occluded boundary is
finally starting to head to the northeast, so conditions should
improve briefly to VFR during the overnight hours. However, wrap
around moisture on the back side of the departing storm system
will drop CIGs back to MVFR Wednesday morning, which is where they
should stay for the balance of the 06Z TAF valid time. Little or
now snowfall is anticipated with this next area of low clouds. Light
winds in the vicinity of the occluded boundary will become gusty
from the southwest later tonight, and then eventually from the
west.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 3 AM CST Wednesday for ILZ027>031-
036>038-041>046-053>057.
Dense Fog Advisory until 1 AM CST Wednesday for ILZ040-047>052-
061.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
354 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DIMINISHING BUT STILL ANTICIPATING BLOWING
SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. THE ENHANCED MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW BAND IS
QUICKLY FALLING APART ACROSS THE EAST...BUT EXPECT ANOTHER INCH
POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 12Z OVER THE EAST. VISIBILITY WITHIN THE BAND
HAS BEEN LESS THAN A HALF MILE AT TIMES...SO KEPT HEADLINES GOING
THROUGH THE EXPIRATIONS TIME OF 12Z. HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS SNOW BAND MOVING EAST. THE BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS COMBINED
WITH THE HEAVY SNOW PACK OVER CENTRAL TO NORTHERN IOWA WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE SOME SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS THROUGH
18Z BEFORE WINDS SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT SNOW
CHANCES GOING ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AS
SOUNDINGS COOL AND REMAIN SATURATED WITHIN THE DENDRITIC LAYER. SO
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES LIKELY TO CONTINUE...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. OBVIOUSLY ANY ADDITIONAL
FALLING SNOW WITH THE CURRENT SNOW PACK AND WINDS...VISIBILITY
CONCERNS AND TRAVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN HAZARDOUS. THIS IS LIKELY TO
BE HANDLED WITH A WINTER WX ADVISORY ONCE THE WARNINGS EXPIRE AT
12Z THIS MORNING.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016
LONGER TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MEAN
EASTERN TROF AND RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST. THROUGH THE END OF THIS
WORK WEEK...A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL DROP THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST PROVIDING THE BEST THREAT OF ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER.
AS FOR TONIGHT IN IOWA...WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY AS
THERMAL TROF PUSHES EAST OF THE STATE. THIS IS ALSO IN ADVANCE OF
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY. THE
BULK OF FORCING WITH THIS WAVE WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF IOWA
AND MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED. AT MOST...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST INTO THURSDAY
BUT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL. THE NEXT WAVE TO
AFFECT THE STATE WILL TOP THE WESTERN RIDGE AND APPROACH LATER
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. FORCING WILL BE A BIT MORE ROBUST
ACROSS IOWA WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT OVERALL MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED.
THEREFORE...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PCPN IN NORTHERN IOWA ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES...OVERALL PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY MORE WITH
WESTERN RIDGE STRENGTHENING ALLOWING EASTERN TROF TO DEEPEN.
ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THIS DEEPENING TROF DRAGGING
ARCTIC AIR FROM CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL US BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MUCH COLDER AIR IS ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY
ALONG WITH SOME THREAT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY WITH
SURFACE READINGS APPROACHING DENDRITIC GROWTH VALUES. TEMPERATURES
MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT TRANSITIONAL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH BAROCLINIC
ZONE SHIFTING BACK AND FORTH THROUGH THE MID AND LOWER MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY DURING THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...03/06Z
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BETWEEN THE
FOG...LOW CEILINGS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SNOW MOVES OUT AND WINDS SLOWLY
SUBSIDE. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXTENT TO WHICH CIGS MAY
CLEAR OUT/RISE ON WEDNESDAY...AND BELIEVE AT LEAST MVFR CIGS WILL
PROBABLY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ADAIR-ADAMS-BLACK HAWK-CASS-CLARKE-GRUNDY-JASPER-MADISON-
MARSHALL-POLK-TAMA-UNION-WARREN.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AUDUBON-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-DALLAS-GUTHRIE-HARDIN-STORY.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR CALHOUN-
CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-SAC-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...LEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
238 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016
AS OF 3 AM CST...2 AM MST...CURRENT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT COMPARED TO WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLOUDY AS SOME STRATUS HAS
SPREAD IN EAST OF HIGHWAY 25. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE TEENS TO LOW
20S BUT A COUPLE LOW SPOTS IN EAST COLORADO ARE REPORTING SINGLE
DIGITS. WINDS ARE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. LATEST WSR-88D
IMAGERY INDICATES NO PRECIPITATION. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
IS SPREADING OVER IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...NOW CENTERED
JUST SOUTHEAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN. ALOFT...NORTHWEST FLOW HAS TAKEN
HOLD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER IDAHO ACCORDING TO LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AND A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE ONLY
HAZARDOUS WEATHER POSSIBLE IS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
TONIGHT FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.
BEGINNING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES...FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTED COLD
TEMPS TODAY WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FORECASTER RATIONALE.
HOWEVER...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE A DIFFERENT STORY. MANY MEMBERS OF
FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGEST A RAPID AND SUBSTANTIAL WARM-UP COMPARED
TO RECENT DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S TO POTENTIALLY LOW
40S. THIS DOES NOT AGREE WITH THE WIDESPREAD SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFIELD
THAT WILL BE AROUND FOR SEVERAL DAYS TO COME. IN ADDITION...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AN INVERSION WILL BE DIFFICULT TO BREAK...
ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. THEREFORE...FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW GUIDANCE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WITH REGARDS TO LOW TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL CONCERNS...A VERY
COLD NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. WITH WIDESPREAD
SNOW COVER...CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD TANK WITH PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. COLDEST SPOTS
WILL BE WHERE WINDS GO CALM...PARTICULARLY IN AREA LOW SPOTS.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN BUT AM CURRENTLY ON THE LOWER END OF THE
GUIDANCE SPECTRUM. WIND SPEEDS MAY NOT DROP AS MUCH AS NEEDED TO
REALIZE FORECAST LOWS. HOWEVER...IF WIND SPEEDS REMAIN A LITTLE
HIGHER AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL READINGS
MAY STILL OCCUR. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF ON A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING FORECAST
OFFICES. IF ONE IS NEEDED...AN ADVISORY WOULD LIKELY COVER LOCATIONS
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 27.
THE PRIMARY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...ALBEIT LIGHT...ARRIVES WITH A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES IN.
IN ADDITION...FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND LIFT SUGGEST SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. ADDED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND
MENTION OF FLURRIES. MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OVER NEBRASKA BUT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME MINOR (LESS THAN ONE HALF
INCH) ACCUMULATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016
NEW MODEL DATA SHOWING THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN AS YESTERDAY. ON
SATURDAY AREA WILL BE UNDER TEMPORARY SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF
ANOTHER NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER MODELS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER
WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN YESTERDAY. PLUS A RATHER STRONG BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND UPPER JET SUPPORT ARE IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME.
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AN ADEQUATE SUPPLY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH NOT AS MUCH MOISTURE AT THE LOW LEVELS. MORE MODELS ARE
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF THAN YESTERDAY. AFTER CONFERRING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...DECIDED WOULD NOT ADD ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AND KEEP THE DRY CONDITIONS THE INIT
GAVE ME. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS IT WILL BE FLURRIES AND CAN AFFORD
TO WAIT A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE INSERTING ANYTHING. REST OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE DRY.
AS ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...IT DEVELOPS INTO A STRONG
AND CLOSED OFF SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. AT
THE SAME TIME...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS SETUP AND LATEST MODEL DATA SUPPORTS
A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AND LINGERING FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
THAT COMBINED WITH A SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFIELD OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
AND EXTENDING WELL TO THE NORTH...SUPPORTS KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES
FROM WARMING UP MUCH. AFTER COLLABORATION...DECIDED TO LOWER THE
TEMPERATURES GIVEN TO ME BY THE CRH INIT. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF COLD
AIR COMING IN BEHIND THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES
MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED MORE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 900 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016
KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 20KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 12KTS BY
08Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z WITH ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED. FROM 17Z-21Z A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA BRINGING SOME GUSTS NEAR 20KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG
WITH SOME CLOUDS FLIRTING WITH MVFR CATEGORY. FROM 22Z THROUGH THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WINDS FALL BELOW 11KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND CLOUDS DISSIPATE LEAVING SKC CONDITIONS.
KMCK...VFR/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 11Z AS
WRAPAROUND CLOUDINESS MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST GUSTING AROUND 22KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE WITH GUSTS
DISSIPATING BY 09Z. FROM 12Z-00Z MODELS HINTING AT IFR CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH WINDS FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10KTS. HAVE A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE IFR CIGS AND
CANT RULE OUT VLIFR CIGS IF THE NAM MODEL IS CORRECT. HRRR HINTS
AT THEM BUT KEEP THEM JUST WEST OF THE TERMINAL. AFTER 01Z JUST A
FEW MID CLOUDS EARLY THEN SKC WITH WINDS FROM THE WEST AROUND
7KTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
157 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND TAKING A NEGATIVE TILT AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES. THE STRONG CIRCULATION IS
EVIDENT BASED ON VIS/IR SATELLITE DATA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. RADAR TRENDS SHOW A SMALL BAND OF
SNOWFALL CONTINUING TO BRING LIGHT SNOW FOR SOME PORTIONS OF EASTERN
COLORADO AND EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS...MAINLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...RADAR REFLECTIVITIES APPEAR TO BE TRENDING
DOWNWARD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
IN THE NEAR TERM UP TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE WINTER STORM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND NEW SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE TO LESSEN.
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON COULD REACH UP TO AN
INCH...BUT LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW COULD OCCUR ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER
UP TO 2 INCHES. RAP MODEL THETA LAPSE RATES/NEGATIVE EPV VALUES
INDICATE AN AREA OF MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH SOME FRONTOGENESIS PRESENT ALONG THE SAME
AXIS AS THE CURRENT RADAR TREND WITH THE SNOW BAND POSITIONED NEAR
THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. A SNOW BAND MOVING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80 ALONG HIGHWAY 283 COULD ALSO BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW UP TO AN
INCH FOR NORTON AND HILL CITY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE LOW
CENTER MOVES EAST ENOUGH TO END THE SNOW THREAT.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS IS THE
BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY THREAT. STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OF 16-18 MB HAS BROUGHT STRONG WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AT TIMES...AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES
NOT HAVE THIS GRADIENT LESSENING FOR THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT
MST (1 AM CST) TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES...DESPITE THERE BEING NO
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. UNLESS
ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY...TRAVEL IS NOT ADVISED.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD STABILIZE AFTER MIDNIGHT MST (1 AM
CST) TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY END THE BLOWING SNOW AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY THREAT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION FROM NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN BETWEEN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND THE MIDDLE TEENS. COLD TEMPERATURES IN
COMBINATION WITH WIND GUSTS WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 10 ABOVE
TO 10 BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016
NEW MODEL DATA SHOWING THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN AS YESTERDAY. ON
SATURDAY AREA WILL BE UNDER TEMPORARY SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF
ANOTHER NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER MODELS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER
WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN YESTERDAY. PLUS A RATHER STRONG BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND UPPER JET SUPPORT ARE IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME.
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AN ADEQUATE SUPPLY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH NOT AS MUCH MOISTURE AT THE LOW LEVELS. MORE MODELS ARE
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF THAN YESTERDAY. AFTER CONFERRING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...DECIDED WOULD NOT ADD ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AND KEEP THE DRY CONDITIONS THE INIT
GAVE ME. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS IT WILL BE FLURRIES AND CAN AFFORD
TO WAIT A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE INSERTING ANYTHING. REST OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE DRY.
AS ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...IT DEVELOPS INTO A STRONG
AND CLOSED OFF SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. AT
THE SAME TIME...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS SETUP AND LATEST MODEL DATA SUPPORTS
A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AND LINGERING FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
THAT COMBINED WITH A SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFIELD OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
AND EXTENDING WELL TO THE NORTH...SUPPORTS KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES
FROM WARMING UP MUCH. AFTER COLLABORATION...DECIDED TO LOWER THE
TEMPERATURES GIVEN TO ME BY THE CRH INIT. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF COLD
AIR COMING IN BEHIND THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES
MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED MORE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 900 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016
KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 20KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 12KTS BY
08Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z WITH ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED. FROM 17Z-21Z A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA BRINGING SOME GUSTS NEAR 20KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG
WITH SOME CLOUDS FLIRTING WITH MVFR CATEGORY. FROM 22Z THROUGH THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WINDS FALL BELOW 11KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND CLOUDS DISSIPATE LEAVING SKC CONDITIONS.
KMCK...VFR/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 11Z AS
WRAPAROUND CLOUDINESS MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST GUSTING AROUND 22KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE WITH GUSTS
DISSIPATING BY 09Z. FROM 12Z-00Z MODELS HINTING AT IFR CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH WINDS FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10KTS. HAVE A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE IFR CIGS AND
CANT RULE OUT VLIFR CIGS IF THE NAM MODEL IS CORRECT. HRRR HINTS
AT THEM BUT KEEP THEM JUST WEST OF THE TERMINAL. AFTER 01Z JUST A
FEW MID CLOUDS EARLY THEN SKC WITH WINDS FROM THE WEST AROUND
7KTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
905 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 510 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016
WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD WARNINGS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR
ANOTHER FEW HOURS BEFORE WINDS START TO SUBSIDE A BIT AND SNOW
COME TO AN END.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND TAKING A NEGATIVE TILT AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES. THE STRONG CIRCULATION IS
EVIDENT BASED ON VIS/IR SATELLITE DATA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. RADAR TRENDS SHOW A SMALL BAND OF
SNOWFALL CONTINUING TO BRING LIGHT SNOW FOR SOME PORTIONS OF EASTERN
COLORADO AND EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS...MAINLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...RADAR REFLECTIVITIES APPEAR TO BE TRENDING
DOWNWARD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
IN THE NEAR TERM UP TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE WINTER STORM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND NEW SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE TO LESSEN.
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON COULD REACH UP TO AN
INCH...BUT LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW COULD OCCUR ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER
UP TO 2 INCHES. RAP MODEL THETA LAPSE RATES/NEGATIVE EPV VALUES
INDICATE AN AREA OF MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH SOME FRONTOGENESIS PRESENT ALONG THE SAME
AXIS AS THE CURRENT RADAR TREND WITH THE SNOW BAND POSITIONED NEAR
THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. A SNOW BAND MOVING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80 ALONG HIGHWAY 283 COULD ALSO BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW UP TO AN
INCH FOR NORTON AND HILL CITY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE LOW
CENTER MOVES EAST ENOUGH TO END THE SNOW THREAT.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS IS THE
BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY THREAT. STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OF 16-18 MB HAS BROUGHT STRONG WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AT TIMES...AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES
NOT HAVE THIS GRADIENT LESSENING FOR THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT
MST (1 AM CST) TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES...DESPITE THERE BEING NO
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. UNLESS
ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY...TRAVEL IS NOT ADVISED.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD STABILIZE AFTER MIDNIGHT MST (1 AM
CST) TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY END THE BLOWING SNOW AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY THREAT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION FROM NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN BETWEEN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND THE MIDDLE TEENS. COLD TEMPERATURES IN
COMBINATION WITH WIND GUSTS WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 10 ABOVE
TO 10 BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016
STRONG UPPER LOW TRANSITIONS EAST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LARGE SCALE RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE
WESTERN US RESULTING IN A SHARP N-NW FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN MAY SUPPORT QUICK SHOTS OF
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. OVERALL CHANCES OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THESE PERIODS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH A
PREDOMINANTLY DRY FORECAST. THIS IS DUE TO EITHER DEEPER DRY AIR
MASS BETWEEN CLIPPERS OR LACK OF CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS.
TEMPERATURES ARE PARTICULARLY TRICKY AS THIS PATTERN WOULD NORMALLY
SUPPORT A TREND TOWARDS SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER WITH THE
ONGOING SNOW EVENT AND AT LEAST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA
RECEIVING 10" OR MORE OF SNOW HIGH TEMPERATURES IN PARTICULAR ARE
LIKELY GOING TO BE LOWER THAN MODELS INDICATE. I TRENDED ALL HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN AND UNDERCUT ALL GUIDANCE THROUGH THESE PERIODS.
SNOW WILL ALSO AID IN RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE NIGHT...AND
ASSUMING WINDS REMAIN LIGHT (TO PREVENT LOW LEVEL MIXING) MODELS MAY
HAVE A WARM BIAS ON LOWS.
REGARDING WIND CHILLS WED NIGHT/THU MORNING...THE AIR MASS AND
ORIENTATION OF THE WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT MIGHT ACTUALLY LEAD TO MORE
MIXING WHICH COULD OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF SNOW/CLEARING SKIES AND
RESULTING WIND CHILLS MAY NOT ACTUALLY REACH -15F (ADVISORY). IT IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR -10 TO -20F WIND CHILLS...BUT I THINK THIS
MAY BE A LOCALIZED THREAT. WITH ONGOING HAZARDS THERE ARE NO CURRENT
PLANS FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 900 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016
KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 20KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 12KTS BY
08Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z WITH ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED. FROM 17Z-21Z A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA BRINGING SOME GUSTS NEAR 20KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG
WITH SOME CLOUDS FLIRTING WITH MVFR CATEGORY. FROM 22Z THROUGH THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WINDS FALL BELOW 11KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND CLOUDS DISSIPATE LEAVING SKC CONDITIONS.
KMCK...VFR/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 11Z AS
WRAPAROUND CLOUDINESS MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST GUSTING AROUND 22KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE WITH GUSTS
DISSIPATING BY 09Z. FROM 12Z-00Z MODELS HINTING AT IFR CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH WINDS FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10KTS. HAVE A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE IFR CIGS AND
CANT RULE OUT VLIFR CIGS IF THE NAM MODEL IS CORRECT. HRRR HINTS
AT THEM BUT KEEP THEM JUST WEST OF THE TERMINAL. AFTER 01Z JUST A
FEW MID CLOUDS EARLY THEN SKC WITH WINDS FROM THE WEST AROUND
7KTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1152 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
.AVIATION...
DRIER AIR IS MAKING A PUSH THROUGH SE TX AND SW LA THIS EVE AND
LOOKS TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH S-CNTRL LA. ARA THIS IS IN THE BAND
OF STORMS MOVING OUT OF THE GULF AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONT
INTO THE OVRNGHT HRS. ARA SHLD CLR TWRDS SR. LFT IS ON THE EDGE
AND LOOKS TO IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
&&
K. KUYPER
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/
DISCUSSION...
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG THE
VERY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER ACADIANA INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2-3 INCHES FROM ST. LANDRY...LAFAYETTE...AND
VERMILION PARISHES SO FAR...WITH ANOTHER 2-3 INCHES POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS. THE CURRENT TRENDS...AND 00Z NAM12 &
LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE CONTINUED SLOWING...ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THIS AREA SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER ACADIANA
THROUGH 4 AM. ADJUSTED POPS AND SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY IN
THE FORECAST.
DML
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 716 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/
DISCUSSION...
TOR WATCH #10 ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM...AS THREAT HAS SHIFTED TO
THE EAST. HOWEVER...FRONTAL PROGRESSION HAS SLOWED UP A BIT...WITH
THE SHRA/TSRA NOW SHOWING SOME TRAINING TENDENCIES OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO SC LA. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ONLY SHOWING ABOUT 1 INCH
WITH ISO AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES IN ST LANDRY PARISH SO FAR...BUT MAY
PICK UP ANOTHER ISOLATED 1-2 INCHES BEFORE ENDING FROM W TO EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS...ADJUSTED EVENING AND EARLY MORNING POPS A
BIT...BUT STILL EXPECTED TO SEE FASTER PROGRESSION AFTER MIDNIGHT
ONCE THE UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES FURTHER EAST WITH THE COLD SFC HIGH
BUILDING SE WITH CONTINUED COOLER AND DRIER AIR.
DML
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/
AVIATION...A COLD FRONT NOW APPROACHING ACADIANA WILL MAINTAIN A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KEEPING
TEMPO GROUPS FOR ARA AND LFT FOR IFR/MVFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM RAIN AND BR. PRECIP HAS ENDED AT
AEX...LCH AND BPT. CEILINGS GENERALLY WITHIN VFR AT THESE
TERMINALS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING...AND WILL
BE CLEARING ACADIANA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/
DISCUSSION...
LEADING EDGE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM/DRY LINE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
FROM JUST EAST OF ESLER FIELD TO CAMERON...AND MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW FOR ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IN ACADIANA...TO WORK WITH SOME DECENT INSTABILITY
(TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70F) TO BECOME
SURFACE BASED AND ON THE STRONG SIDE...ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE BECOMING
MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH HEIGHT OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LESSENING
THE SHEAR.
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WORK THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY GRADUALLY ENDING AS IT
PASSES. SECONDARY SURGE OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO MOVE DOWN ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST AREA. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...A LIGHT FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 CORRIDOR.
A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO FORM OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
ON LATE FRIDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE GULF DURING THE WEEKEND. STILL
A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS FOR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH TRENDS SEEM
TO BE ON THE DRIER SIDE AND IF THIS CONTINUES...MAY BE ABLE TO
TAKE OUT POPS ALTHOUGH AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND...WHICH
WOULD BE GOOD NEWS FOR MARDI GRAS ACTIVITIES. A COOL BUT DRY
FORECAST IS THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR BOTH LUNDI GRAS AND MARDI
GRAS.
RUA
MARINE...
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL THEN PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD AIR MASS
BEGINS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR DURING THIS TIME. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH
WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY.
RUA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 44 59 34 55 / 40 0 0 0
LCH 47 63 37 57 / 40 0 0 0
LFT 51 64 38 56 / 70 10 0 0
BPT 46 63 37 58 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ033-043>045-
052>055.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
1031 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
.UPDATE...
A SHORT TERM HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WHERE ANY LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS TEMPORARILY STALL AND
TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO EXPERIENCE
HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS FROM EAST OF
LAFAYETTE AND NEAR MORGAN CITY TO NEAR BATON ROUGE AND SOME OF THE
RIVER PARISHES SOUTHEAST OF BATON ROUGE. THE COLD FRONT IS MAKING
ITS PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS INDICATE THE MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL START TO ACCELERATE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF COAST. WHILE THERE HAS STILL BEEN NO REPORTS OF
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORECAST AREA...THE MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK
CONTINUES WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND SLIGHT INSTABILITY IN PLACE
TO SUPPORT THE THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH BOWING
THUNDERSTORM SEGMENTS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. 22/TD
&&
.MARINE...
HAD TO REISSUE A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUNDS AND
COASTAL WATERS NEAR SOUTHWEST PASS AND OUT 20 NAUTICAL MILES DUE
TO THE PERSISTENCE OF FOG OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI SOUND /NEAR
THE MISSISSIPPI COAST/ AND RECENT DEVELOPMENT NEAR LOWER
PLAQUEMINES PARISH. 22/TD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 803 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/
UPDATE...
AREA RADARS INDICATED MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND A FEW OCCASIONALLY
POTENT THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING ACROSS AREAS JUST WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TO THE FAR NORTHWEST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA IN EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA NORTHWEST OF BATON
ROUGE INTO FAR SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. PREVIOUS SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION IS STILL VALID WITH REGARDS TO TRENDS AND WEATHER
CONCERNS TONIGHT...SO THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO DELAY SLIGHTLY THE
ONSET OF HIGHER CHANCES/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE NEW
TORNADO WATCH 12 AREA WHICH EXTENDS NORTH FROM AREAS JUST NORTH OF
METRO BATON ROUGE AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN INTO MISSISSIPPI.
HOWEVER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK CANNOT BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE
INCLUDING BATON ROUGE THROUGH ABOUT 10 PM...AND SOUTHSHORE METRO
NEW ORLEANS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TO SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
THE LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND WRF/S
APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AND INDICATING A
BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING EAST NEAR I-55 AROUND
MIDNIGHT...NORTH AND SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN MIDNIGHT TO 3
AM...AND THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST 1 OR 2 AM TO ABOUT 5 AM. THE
MAIN FEATURES ARE SUPPORTING SOME SEVERE RISK INTO THE NIGHT ARE
THE STILL WARM AND HUMID SURFACE...LIMITED MARINE LAYER
STABILIZATION...STRONG SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...AND A SERIES OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL SPEED
MAXIMA THAT COULD STILL HELP TO ENERGIZE BOTH INDIVIDUAL AND LINES
OF THUNDERSTORMS. 22/TD
MARINE...
CONDITIONS RANGE FROM SOLID SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION /SCEC/ TO
BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ WITH 15 TO 20 KNOTS
SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EXTENDED SCEC THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT
ACROSS ALL WATERS...AND MARINERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT A LINE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. 22/TD
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....ORANGE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
MONITORING DENSE FOG TRENDS ALONG SOME NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS.
SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/
SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
SUCCESSFUL BALLOON LAUNCH ON A GUSTY, MILD AND HUMID EVENING.
PRECIP FREE AT LEAST HELPED BALLOON REACH DESIRED ASCENSION RATE
DESPITE STRONG SSW-SW WINDS FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 41000 FT.
SLIGHT DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR IN PLACE FOR KLIX THROUGHOUT
THE SOUNDING. THE CONDITIONS WERE SIMILAR TO THE 18Z SOUNDING
REQUESTED BUT WERE MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE. 00Z LAUNCH HAD MOIST
LOW LEVELS WITH SEVERAL LAYERS OF CLOUD COVER IN THE AREA.
REFLECTED IN SOUNDING...1700 FT, 8500 FT AND 24800 FT. PRECIP
WATER 1.49 INCHES. LIFTED INDEX REPORTING -6. CAPE IS AT 856 J/KG
AND DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS REACHED 79F. HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY WITH THIS SETUP. EARLIER STORMS THAT DEVELOPED NEAR KLIX
AND MOVED NORTHWARD SHOWED ROTATION WHICH RESULTED IN A TORNADO
WATCH ISSUED BY SPC FOR THE KLIX FORECAST AREA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/
SHORT TERM...SO FAR SO GOOD AS STORMS HAVE BEEN BEHAVING OVER OUR
CWA BUT A FEW STORMS HAVE LED TO DAMAGE IN EAST CENTRAL MS THIS
AFTERNOON FROM TORNADOES. TORNADO WATCH 10 REMAINS IN EFFECT TILL
7PM TONIGHT.
MAIN CONCERN IS THE SEVERE THREAT TODAY AND TONIGHT. CURRENT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WRN HALF OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO
THE NE. OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA FROM NOW THROUGH 03Z WILL BE
THE BEST ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE FOR THESE CELLS TO BECOME SEVERE AND
POSE A DECENT TORNADO RISK. BEST LL CONVERGENCE...HIGHEST
INSTABILITY...GOOD LL SHEAR...AND INCREASING LIFT ALOFT WILL LINE UP
DURING THIS TIME. AFTER THAT EXPECTED A LINE OF SHRA AND TSRA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA. BETTER
FORCING...DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND THE COLD FRONT COULD LEAD TO
SQUALLINE DEVELOPING WITH A FEW STORMS SEVERE MAINLY POSING A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ALSO CAN NOT RULE OUT QLCS TYPE TORNADIC
ACTIVITY WITH THIS LINE.
SOMETHING ELSE THAT HASNT REALLY BEEN TALKED MUCH ABOUT IS
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN. THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH WHICH IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED FROM WEST OF MCB TO NEAR LFT IS NOT MOVING AND STORMS
CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG THIS BNDRY. WITH AN ALREADY SATURATED
ENVIRONMENT THIS COULD EASILY DROP A FEW INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH THE
EVNG AND IF SITTING OVER THE RIGHT PLACES COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCAL
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.
TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THU BUT COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WED. /CAB/
LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST CONTINUES TO BE RATHER
DIFFICULT WITH VERY LOW CONFIDENCE. MDL CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY
LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED. THE ONLY THING THAT LOOKS LIKELY TO
OCCUR IS THAT TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MARDI
GRAS. AS FOR RAIN CHANCES LATEST THINKING IS THAT WE COULD REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY BUT WILL STILL HOLD ONTO SMALL RAIN CHANCES FOR SUN AS A
S/W-CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND COULD SQUEEZE OUT
SOME RAIN FOR SUNDAY. /CAB/
AVIATION...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT STRONG TO STORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT AND EXPECT PERIODS OF LIFR WITH HEAVY STORMS. WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT HAVE BEEN ELEVATED AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE. A WINDS
SHIFT OVERNIGHT TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA LATER ON THIS EVENING. THE CENTRAL PORTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
FOR THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST BY DAYBREAK. WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING
SHOULD BE ELEVATED FROM THE NORTHWEST. 13/MH
MARINE...FOG HAS BEEN AN ISSUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS
EAST OF THE MS RIVER AND EVEN THOUGH IT HAS IMPROVED SOME EXPECT SEA
FOG TO SET BACK IN FOR A SHORT TIME THIS EVNG IN THOSE SAME PLACES.
ONCE MORE RAIN AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES FOG SHOULD IMPROVE. GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT REMAINS TIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR WINDS OF 15
TO 20 KTS BUT SHOULD RELAX SOME AS WE APPROACH MIDNIGHT. BY WED
MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS BUT WINDS WILL
NOT QUITE RESPOND UNTIL MUCH DRIER AIR AND CAA TAKES PLACE WED
NIGHT. AS A RESULT...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BEGINNING WED EVNG AND PERSISTING THROUGH FRI
MORNING. /CAB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 51 62 37 53 / 100 10 10 0
BTR 52 64 39 55 / 90 10 10 0
ASD 57 64 42 56 / 90 20 10 0
MSY 57 64 45 55 / 90 20 10 0
GPT 59 64 43 56 / 100 30 10 0
PQL 60 65 44 56 / 100 40 10 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ532-536-538-
552-555.
MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ536-538-552-
555.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
321 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW POTENT SHRTWV
LIFTING NEWD INTO THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH BAND OF HEAVY PCPN
IN THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT EXTENDING FM NEBRASKA INTO WI SHIFTING N
INTO THE SRN CWA AS DYNAMIC FORCING/H85-7 FGEN/UPR DVGC IN LEFT EXIT
OF SUPPORTING H3 JET STREAK AND RIGHT ENTRANCE OF ANOTHER JET STREAK
OVER SE CANADA IS FINALLY OVERCOMING DRY AIR SHOWN BTWN H85-7 ON THE
LOCAL 12Z RAOBS. 00Z-12Z 12HR H5 HGT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WERE AS GREAT AS 200M AT DODGE CITY KS...AND THE
ACCOMPANYING STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING HAS CAUSED SOME LTNG ON THE SRN
EDGE OF THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS AS FAR N AS SCENTRAL WI. SOME
LOCATIONS IN WI HAVE SEEN SN FALL AT THE RATE OF 2 INCHES/HR THIS
AFTN. DRY SLOTTING ON THE ACYC SIDE OF THE UPR LO TRACK IS PUSHING
INTO SRN MN/WI. THIS UPR LO APPEARS TO BE TRACKING FARTHER W THAN
EXPECTED.
FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS ON ONGOING HEADLINES ASSOCIATED WITH
APRCHG VIGOROUS SHRTWV AND IMPACT OF DRY SLOTTING ON SN TOTALS/MIX
WITH FZDZ.
LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT...SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD TOWARD THE UPR LKS IS FCST
TO WEAKEN A BIT AS IT REACHES NW WI AT 12Z WED. AREA OF ENHANCED UPR
DVGC/H85-7 FGEN OVER CCB AND UNDER SHARP DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC
AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWV WL BRING A PERIOD OF SOME MDT/HEAVY SN TO
MAINLY THE E 2/3 OF THE CWA THIS EVNG. H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FCST UP
TO 4 G/KG OVER THE SE CWA WL ALLOW ABOUT 6 INCHES OF WET SN TO FALL
OVER THE SE CWA BEFORE DRY SLOTTING ON THE ERN FLANK OF APRCHG H5-7
LO CAUSES THE SN TO DIMINISH AS EARLY AS LATE EVNG-MIDNGT AT
MENOMINEE. ALTHOUGH THE SPECIFIC HUMIDITY IS FCST TO BE LOWER OVER
THE W /ABOUT 2 G/KG/...FCST SN/WATER RATIOS FCST AS HI AS 20-25:1
THIS EVNG AND MORE PROLONGED DEEPER MSTR AWAY FM MID LVL DRY
SLOTTING WL ALLOW SIMILAR OVERNGT SN TOTALS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
FAR W NEAR THE PORCUPINE MTNS...WHERE A MORE UPSLOPE CYC NNE FLOW WL
BE THE RULE OVERNGT AND ADD SOME LK ENHANCEMENT WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR -
10C. SINCE THE KEWEENAW WL BE IMPACTED BY THIS MORE PERSISTENT
DEEPER RH AND THE LATEST WPC SN FCST SHOWS A MAXIMUM OVER THE WRN
CWA WITH SHIFT OF THE TRACK OF THE UPR LO TO THE W...OPTED TO
UPGRADE ADVY FOR THAT AREA TO A WARNING. THE 12Z NAM IS QUITE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DRY SLOTTING...SHOWING SOME MID LVL DRYING
IMPACTING THE AREA FM IRON RIVER TO THE HURON MTNS OVERNGT. ALTHOUGH
THE SHRTWV IS FCST TO WEAKEN A BIT OVERNGT...CURRENT STLT TRENDS
SUPPORT MORE EXTENSIVE MID LVL DRY SLOTTING AND EXPANDING POTENTIAL
MIX WITH FZDZ FARTHER TO THE W TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE SE HALF.
ALTHOUGH THE DISTURBANCE WL BE WEAKENING A BIT...NE H925 WINDS FCST
AS HI AS 35-40KTS WL ALLOW FOR BLSN...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS NEAR
LK SUP.
WED...BULK OF THE LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AREA
OF DEEPER MID LVL MSTR WRAPPING BACK THRU THE CWA UNDER TRACK OF
OPENING SHRTWV LIFTING TO THE NE AND ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC. SO AFTER SOME REDUCED POPS IN THE MRNG/MIX WITH FREEZING
DZ...BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE HI LIKELY RANGE FOR MORE SN WITH DEEPER
MSTR EXPANDING BACK INTO THE DGZ. ALTHOUGH SOME LES WL PERSIST OVER
THE W IN THE AFTN WITH CYC NNW FLOW OF COLDER AIR DROPPING H85 TEMPS
TO NEAR -15C BY 00Z THU...ARRIVAL OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IN THE
WAKE OF PASSING SHRTWV SHOULD RESULT IN DIMINISHING PCPN.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST QUEBEC
WEDNESDAY EVENING WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH AXIS LINGER
ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH AXIS LINGERING OVER THE AREA
WILL KEEP 850MB TEMPS AROUND -14C TO -15C. THE COMBINATION OF DELTA
T VALUES AROUND 17C TO 18C ALONG WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL KEEP AN ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MAINLY FOR NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE U.P. THIS WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
IN INTENSITY OVER THE WEST WHILE THE EAST CONTINUES TO LIGHT TO
MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL DROP FROM 6-7KFT
IN THE EVENING OVER THE WEST TO AROUND 3 TO 4KFT OVERNIGHT...AGAIN
POINTING TOWARD THE DIMINISHING TREND. OVER THE EAST
HALF...INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL STAY AROUND 6-7KFT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A LARGE PORTION OF THE MOIST LAYER WILL BE IN THE
DGZ...WHICH WILL HELP TO SUPPORT HIGHER SNOWFALL RATIOS AROUND 19:1
TO 22:1 ALONG WITH ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES FOR THE
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING AS A WEAK AND VERY BRIEF
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
REDUCTION IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT IT WILL BE VERY BRIEF AS ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL 500MB SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE INCREASED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH ALONG WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING
AROUND -14C TO -15C WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO KICK UP AGAIN.
THIS TIME THE MAIN AREA OF FOCUS WOULD BE MAINLY ALONG THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AS WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY.
INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO JUMP UP TO AROUND 6-8KFT AS THE
WAVE SLIDES THROUGH WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW TOTALS ARE EXPECTED AS THE WAVE IS SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA
QUICKLY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE KEWEENAW AND EASTERN AREAS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR COULD SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL HELP PEG ANY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO WESTERN U.P./KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND POSSIBLY
OVER EASTERN AREAS...MAINLY CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE. MOISTURE IS
PROGGED TO BE FAIRLY SHALLOW THROUGH THE DAY SO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS INVERSION HEIGHTS AND MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN BELOW 5KFT. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR INCREASED
MOISTURE WITH 850MB TEMPS REMAINING AROUND -14C TO -15C. THIS WILL
ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG WITH LIGHT SYSTEM SNOW TO OCCUR ACROSS
THE AREA. RIGHT NOW THE FAVORED LAKE ENHANCEMENT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD
OCCUR FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS...BUT THERE ARE
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE WIND FIELDS. DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A
MAJOR LAKE EFFECT EVENT AT THIS TIME.
SUNDAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED...BOTH THE EC AND GFS ARE SHOWING A
CLIPPER SYSTEM SLIDING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKE THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD. THIS WOULD END UP BRINGING WIDESPREAD SYSTEM SNOW
ACROSS THE U.P. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE THE LATEST GFS/EC
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT...PREVIOUS MODEL RUN COMPARISONS SHOW
THAT THERE HAS BEEN SOME DISAGREEMENTS FROM RUN TO RUN. AT THIS
POINT WILL NOT GET INTO THE SPECIFICS THIS FAR OUT. THE TREND WOULD
BE FOR THE CLIPPER SYSTEM TO SLIDE THROUGH DURING THAT TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016
EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES. IN
ADDITION...WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NE...CREATING
BLSN AT TIMES. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE SOME FZDZ AT
SAW FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT INTO WED WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER
VSBYS...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE IFR/LIFR RANGE EVEN IF THIS
OCCURS. EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT WED EVENING TO MVFR AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN AND SFC RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS LOW PRES TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...EVENTUALLY CROSSING FAR NORTHERN LOWER MI LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND ADJACENT WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...SO GALE WARNING REMAINS
OVER THAT AREA FOR LATE EVENING THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. AFTER
A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY...THE NEXT PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS
WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH WINDS OF 20-30KT...STRONGEST
OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
WIND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR MIZ001>007-009-084-085.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ013-
014.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ010>012.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
436 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS OUR REGION
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE PIEDMONT
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE OVERHEAD FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT AN ACTIVE WX DAY IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS MORNING...DEEP
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED FROM MICHIGAN TO IOWA...WITH COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SWD INTO MID TN. AHEAD OF THIS 8H LOW LVL JET IS SCREAMING
AT 60KTS+ OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A WEDGE HOLDS IN PLACE OVER
MOST OF OUR CWA AND THIS IS ACTING TO BLOCK STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO
MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS AS WELL AS THE
FAR SW CWA REMAIN ON THE EDGE OF THE WEDGE SO WIND ADVISORY GUSTS TO
50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 10AM. BY THIS TIME...THE SFC WINDS
WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WHICH IS WHEN THE DOWNSLOPING
EFFECTS OF THE WINDS TEND TO LESSEN OVER THE MTN EMPIRE.
ANOTHER ISSUE TODAY WILL BE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. UNSEASONABLY HIGH
PWATS WILL PUNCH IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THIS STRONG LOW LVL JET.
PWATS WILL BE IN THE 1.25 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE RUNNING 3-4 SD ABOVE
NORMAL. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN GETTING
THIS DOWN PRETTY WELL...BUT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING ARISE...WITH OUR
LOCAL WRF AND THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF SLOWER IN PUSHING THE RAINFALL
ACROSS...WHILE THE LATER HRRR/HIGHRES ARW AND GFS ARE QUICKER. THINK
WITH A STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT THIS WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THE
MODEL CAMPS. WILL SEE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS WORK INTO THE WV MTNS BY
12-14Z...THEN SHIFT EAST AS NARROW DEEP HEAVY RAIN LINE EMBEDDED
WITH THE GENERAL MODERATE SHOWERS TO THE BLUE RIDGE BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH THE GROUND REMAINING SATURATED FROM
SNOWMELT AND 6 HR FFG RUNNING UNDER 1.5 INCHES IN SOME
LOCATIONS...WE COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. THINKING IT WILL
BE MORE ENHANCED ALONG AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY...WITH THE SRLY
JET IN PLACE. AS SUCH AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO HAVE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH OUT FOR THE BLUE RIDGE OF NC INTO VA...WITH POTENTIAL FOR 2"+
INCHES OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE SRN BLUE RIDGE FROM FLOYD/PATRICK
SOUTHWEST TO BOONE/BLOWING ROCK NC.
WPC HAS INDICATED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER MOST IF
NOT ALL OF THE CWA...BUT OUTSIDE THE BLUE RIDGE THINK ANYTHING WILL
BE ISOLATED.
THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SITUATED FROM THE NC PIEDMONT
TOWARD SOUTHSIDE VA BY AFTERNOON...SO ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
FOR FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF A ROCKY MOUNT VA TO YADKINVILLE
NC LINE. SVR THREAT IS MARGINAL AT BEST EAST WITH STRONG WINDS THE
MAIN THREAT...BUT THINK LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT SVR
CONVECTION. ADDED GUSTY WINDS TO THE FORECAST WITH THE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHSIDE VA AREA AND NW NC PIEDMONT.
WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO ERODE FAIRLY QUICKLY ONCE SFC FRONT MOVES INTO
THE MTNS THIS MORNING...SO DID A NON-DIURNAL CURVE GIVEN WARMING
TEMPS THIS MORNING IN THE WESTERN CWA...THEN COOLING OFF THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE RAIN ENDING LATE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MILD AND
SPRINGLIKE WITH LOWER TO MID 60S OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
TONIGHT...THE FRONT SLOWS UP AS IT ELONGATED PARALLEL TO THE UPPER
FLOW...BUT SHOULD BE EAST OF US BY MIDNIGHT. HUNG ONTO HIGHER POPS
THIS EVENING FROM LYNCHBURG AND DANVILLE EAST WHILE DRYING THINGS
OUT WEST. SHOULD SEE DRIER PUNCHING INTO THE PIEDMONT BEFORE DAWN
WHILE UPSLOPE STARTS TO GENERATE LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WEST.
COLD AIR MAY LAG GIVEN SLOWNESS OF UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S EAST TO LOWER 30S WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 237 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL STALL
ALONG THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER
THE OHIO-TENN VALLEYS BY THURSDAY EVENING...GENERATING A SURFACE
REFLECTION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS REFLECTION MAY BUCKLE
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE COASTAL PIEDMONT THURSDAY EVENING. THE 00Z
NAM MOVES AN AREA OF RAIN OVER THE VA/NC PIEDMONT WHILE OTHER MODELS
REMAIN DRY. WE WILL RUN WITH THE DRIER SOLUTION AS WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW PROMOTES DRYING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY MORNING...PUSHING THE SURFACE
REFLECTION AND MOISTURE OUT TO SEA. A CHILLY SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN
BUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG WESTERN SLOPES OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. THE 00Z GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL DISPLAYING UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH A MAINLY WEST WIND AND
MOISTURE BECOMING VERY SHALLOW THROUGH THE DAY...WILL ONLY CARRY
CHANCE POPS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW UP TO AN INCH IN WESTERN
GREENBRIER.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE BREEZY WHILE TEMPERATURES RUN
NEAR NORMAL. AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEND TEMPERATURES
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DRIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL START A
PERIOD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD MODERATE SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY...BUT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS THAT WILL WEAKEN THE WARMING TREND. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...TWO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS APPROACH THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. THE NORTHERN ONE WILL CROSS OVER QUEBEC AND THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE SHOULD MOVE ALONG THE GULF
COAST. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODELS KEEP THIS SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
IN PLACE. THE SOUTHERN TROUGH WILL GENERATE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...AND TRACK IT TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM
INTENSIFIES. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPEARS TO STAY JUST OFFSHORE
AND NOT IMPACT THE CWA.
BY SUNDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EMERGE WITHIN THE
NORTHERN STREAM OVER THE DAKOTAS...AND DIG SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
ACCOMPANY THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH...THAT WILL SPARK AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ON
MONDAY...TO KEEP THE APPROACHING MOISTURE FROM THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AS
RAIN...EXCEPT FOR THE COLDER WESTERN SLOPES WHERE IT MAY START AS
SNOW. ONCE A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE PRECIPITATION WOULD TURN OVER TO ALL SNOW WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SINCE THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY DUE
TO THE MODELS DIVERGING ON THE TRACK OF THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM...JUST
CHANCE POPS WERE UTILIZED.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1141 PM EST TUESDAY...
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SHAPED POPS/WEATHER IN TAF TOWARDS HIGHRES MODELS SLOWER TIMING.
BELIEVE THE HRRR CAPTURED RAIN AND TIMING THE BEST. WARMER AIR
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER CEILINGS/VISBYS
OVERNIGHT WITH ALL TAF LOCATIONS AT IFR CEILINGS BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AND MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL KEEP WINDS GUSTY AT BLF
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND GUSTY WINDS OF 15-25KTS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AT THE REMAINING TAF
SITES. THE COLD FRONT ISN`T EXPECTED TO CROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES...WIND
DIRECTIONS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS
SLOWLY SUBSIDING. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING REACHING THE COAST BY EARLY
THURSDAY.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE TAF
PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
BY LATE THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TO PROVIDE
COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS... AND ALSO PROVIDE A RECOVERY TO VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
UNSEASONABLY HIGH PWATS...STRONG LOW LVL JET AND SATURATED GROUNDS
COMBINED WITH SLOWER MOVING LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS TODAY.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM TODAY.
EXPECT THE HEAVIER RAINFALL TO OCCUR IN THE 9AM TO 4 PM TIME
FRAME. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VARIES ACROSS RIVER FORECAST CENTER
BOUNDARIES...BUT LEANING TOWARD THE LOWER THRESHOLD OF 1.3 TO 1.5
INCHES OF RAIN IN 6 HRS TO CAUSE PROBLEMS. COULD SEE URBAN
FLOODING AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IN THE BOONE NC AREA...AND
POSSIBLY IN ROANOKE. IF THE SYSTEM SPEEDS UP...THE FLOOD THREAT
IS GOING TO BE LESS...BUT GIVEN UPSTREAM TRENDS AND THE STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LVLS WHICH WILL RUN MORE
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...THINK SLOWER SCENARIO IS MORE LIKELY.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR DOWNSTREAM RIVERS LATER INTO
TONIGHT/THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY THE JAMES/ROANOKE AND DAN RIVER
BASINS. POTENTIAL PER 12Z SREF FOR THE GREENBRIER RIVER AT
ALDERSON TO FLOOD. THIS IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM GIVEN THERE IS
STILL SOME SNOW COVER UPSTREAM OVER THE MTNS OF ERN WV. BUT AT
THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH
IN WV.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
MAINTENANCE WAS BEEN CONDUCTED ON THE KFCX RADAR TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME TRANSMITTER AND RECEIVER
ALARMS...SO THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THE RADAR COULD GO DOWN.
TECHNICIANS WILL LOOK AT IT AGAIN TODAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ015>017-
022>024-032>035.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007-009-015.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ001>003-018-
019.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...CF/KK
HYDROLOGY...PM/WP
EQUIPMENT...PM/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1141 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL REMAIN
WEDGED AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY AS THE WINTER STORM ADVANCES NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO EASTERN CANADA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1125 PM EST TUESDAY...
ADJUSTED POPS FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SLOWED THE
ONSET OF RAIN...AND TWEAKED POPS TOWARDS LATEST HRRR SOLUTION. THE
AREA OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN
SHRINKING TONIGHT. ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM TO FAR
WEST MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN IN A FEW
LOCATION WITH CURRENT SURFACE OBS. USED HOURLY TEMPERATURES FOR
CALCULATION OF OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.
AS OF 830 PM EST TUESDAY...
EXPANDED WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE MERCER SOUTHWARD TO WATAGUA
COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA FOR THE SOUTHEAST WINDS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE COUNTIES TEND TO BE OUR FAVORED
LOCATIONS FOR THE STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS. A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST LOCATIONS FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS WOULD BE AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. ONE OF THE HINDERING FACTORS WILL BE IF THE
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION/CLOUD LAYER WILL STOP SOME OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH THE
CURRENT OBS AND MODEL TRENDS. THE HIRESW-ARW AND RNK WRFARW
AND HRRR HAVE A SLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE RAIN TONIGHT. DECIDED
TO LOWER POPS FOR THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...RAIN WILL ARRIVE FOR THE WEST AND SPREAD
EAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA. MORE CHANGES LATER TONIGHT....
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS NOSED DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS WITH SHALLOW STABLE LAYER PROMOTING NEAR SATURATED
CONDITIONS BELOW 800 MB. CLOUDS ARE THE LOWEST AND THICKEST ALONG
THE APPALACHIAN CREST FROM THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NC NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE NRV OF VA AND INTO SOUTHEAST WV. CLOUD BASES WERE
HIGHER ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND INTO THE PIEDMONT...THE DRY
NORTHEAST WIND EVEN PROMOTING SOME CLEARING ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN AND EASTERN VA.
RAIN THREAT TO THIS POINT HAS BEEN MINIMAL WITH THE ONLY REPORTS
OF PRECIPITATION COMING FROM THE RIDGE TOPS NEAR THE APPALACHIAN
CREST WHERE DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BUT
WEAKEN AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE ACTUAL FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF
CROSSING THE MS RIVER VALLEY...TRAILING FROM LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER IOWA. THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE GREAT LAKES BY DAWN WEDNESDAY...THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO OUR REGION...STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION PER INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO OVERRUN THE
COOL WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL
SHOWERS. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO BEGIN THE PROCESS OF
ERODING THE COOL WEDGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN STEADY OR RISING
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT RIDGE TOP LEVEL CLOSER TO
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION.
THE MAIN EMPHASIS FOR RAIN WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AS 800MB LOW LVL JET STREAKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FEEDING HIGHER PWATS INTO THE AREA. AS SUCH WILL SEE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN PER INCREASING UPSLOPE AND OVERRUNNING WIND
FLOW...AND IN ADDITION TO THE ARRIVAL OF A LINE OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE
NEARING OUR WRN CWA BORDER BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR COVERAGE OF
RAIN TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THE
BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA ENGULFED IN
A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN BY 12Z/7AM WED.
DONT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WITH THE PASSING
LINE OF CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS A VERY DYNAMIC
SYSTEM...BUT THE OVERALL INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED FOR OUR CWA
PER THE LINGERING STABLE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE APPALACHIANS. ATTM WILL ENTERTAIN A WIND THREAT PRIMARILY
PRIMARILY FOR NON CONVECTIVE CONCERNS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIAN DIVIDE...SPECIFICALLY TAZEWELL AND SMYTH COUNTIES
WHERE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE DUE TO
SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. THERE MAY
ALSO BE SOME RIDGETOP GUSTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE FARTHER EAST ABOVE
THE STABLE WEDGE...BUT IT APPEARS THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH
COVERAGE TO JUSTIFY A WIND ADVISORY ATTM.
MODEL QPF HAS BEEN TRENDING UP WITH THIS SYSTEM. PLEASE SEE HYDRO
SECTION OF THIS AFD FOR DETAILS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST TUESDAY...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE RAIN SHOWERS TO SUBSIDE IN THE
PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE...COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ENSUE...AND SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW THAT THE WIND
WILL NOT QUITE BE FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT RATHER FROM THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST. THIS SETUP IS NOT AS IDEAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...SO
ONLY A LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED.
BY THURSDAY...CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE...ALTHOUGH NOT SO
QUICKLY IN THE WESTERN SLOPES AND IN THE PIEDMONT EAST OF A LINE
FROM LYNCHBURG TO DANVILLE. THE ECMWF SOLUTION MOVES THE COLD FRONT
SLOWER TOWARD THE EAST COAST THAN THE GFS...AND ALSO TRIES TO
DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO BUCKLE SOME MOISTURE BACK TOWARD
THE PIEDMONT BY EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. IT SEEMS THAT THE ECMWF MAY BE
TOO SLOW...SO THE FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS SOLUTION WAS
FAVORED IN THIS FORECAST. AS A RESULT...JUST DRY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO THE EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FINALLY BUILD OVERHEAD AFTER MIDNIGHT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR EVERYWHERE IN THE
CWA...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE SUNNY BUT STILL COOL. THE HIGH SHOULD SHIFT OVER
THE PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAY NOT
COOL AS MUCH DUE TO A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND THE FLOW SLOWLY TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WERE GENERALLY HELD ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE...WHILE
LOW TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT BELOW MOS GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DRIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL START A
PERIOD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD MODERATE SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY...BUT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS THAT WILL WEAKEN THE WARMING TREND. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...TWO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS APPROACH THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. THE NORTHERN ONE WILL CROSS OVER QUEBEC AND THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE SHOULD MOVE ALONG THE GULF
COAST. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODELS KEEP THIS SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
IN PLACE. THE SOUTHERN TROUGH WILL GENERATE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...AND TRACK IT TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM
INTENSIFIES. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPEARS TO STAY JUST OFFSHORE
AND NOT IMPACT THE CWA.
BY SUNDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EMERGE WITHIN THE
NORTHERN STREAM OVER THE DAKOTAS...AND DIG SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
ACCOMPANY THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH...THAT WILL SPARK AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ON
MONDAY...TO KEEP THE APPROACHING MOISTURE FROM THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AS
RAIN...EXCEPT FOR THE COLDER WESTERN SLOPES WHERE IT MAY START AS
SNOW. ONCE A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE PRECIPITATION WOULD TURN OVER TO ALL SNOW WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SINCE THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY DUE
TO THE MODELS DIVERGING ON THE TRACK OF THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM...JUST
CHANCE POPS WERE UTILIZED.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1141 PM EST TUESDAY...
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SHAPED POPS/WEATHER IN TAF TOWARDS HIGHRES MODELS SLOWER TIMING.
BELIEVE THE HRRR CAPTURED RAIN AND TIMING THE BEST. WARMER AIR
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER CEILINGS/VISBYS
OVERNIGHT WITH ALL TAF LOCATIONS AT IFR CEILINGS BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AND MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL KEEP WINDS GUSTY AT BLF
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND GUSTY WINDS OF 15-25KTS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AT THE REMAINING TAF
SITES. THE COLD FRONT ISNT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES...WIND
DIRECTIONS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS
SLOWLY SUBSIDING. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING REACHING THE COAST BY EARLY
THURSDAY.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE TAF
PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
BY LATE THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TO PROVIDE
COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS... AND ALSO PROVIDE A RECOVERY TO VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING HIGHER FOR QPF WITH WEDNESDAYS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.75 TO 1.25...WITH SOME ISOLATED
1.50 INCH AMOUNTS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS SORT OF RAINFALL WILL
GENERATE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA STREAMS...POTENTIALLY TO NEAR
BANKFULL IN SOME INSTANCES. IF TRENDS CONTINUE TO GO HIGHER THEN A
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 100 PM EST TUESDAY...
MAINTENANCE HAS BEEN CONDUCTED ON THE KFCX RADAR. THE RADAR IS
BACK UP AND RUNNING BUT MAY CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE INTERMITTENT
OUTAGES.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/PM
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...CF/KK
HYDROLOGY...PM
EQUIPMENT...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1125 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
PRIMARY SNOW BAND FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS LIFTED NORTH AND INTO
EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WHILE IN A RELATIVE
LULL THIS EVENING...THERE HAVE BEEN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW MIXED AT
TIMES WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN/SLEET. SOME AREAS HAVE SEEN
A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE...RESULTING IN SLICK CONDITIONS. STILL SEEING
SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WEST OF THE MS RIVER...BUT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEEN LIMITED...SO LIKELY SEEING MORE OF A DRIFTING
THAN BLOWING SCENARIO.
03.03Z ANALYSIS SHOWS THE RESPONSIBLE SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL IA. TO THE NORTHWEST...THERE IS STRONG 925 TO 850
HPA FRONTOGENESIS AND THIS ALIGNS WELL WITH A MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW BAND FROM JUST EAST OF OMAHA TO CHARLES CITY. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS NOT HANDLING THIS SNOW BAND WELL...BUT FOLLOWING THE LOW-
LEVEL FORCING...THIS SNOW BAND SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE UPPER
MS RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 1SM AT TIMES...SO SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE. THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED
BY RATHER STRONG OMEGA IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE PER RAP BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. ALL SAID...LOOK FOR ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW
TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. BECAUSE
OF THIS...WILL NOT MAKE ANY HEADLINE CHANGES AT THIS TIME...
ALTHOUGH CERTAIN PORTIONS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 12Z
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
THE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES TO MAKE NORTHWARD PROGRESS ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH WHILE THE SECONDARY DEFORMATION BAND TAKES
SHAPE FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE 02.12Z
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF SHOWING A FRONTOGENESIS BAND
SETTING UP IN THIS REGION ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND SHOWING THIS TO BE ON THE WEAK SIDE. SO WHILE IT WILL
CONTINUE TO SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THIS DEFORMATION
AREA...ACCUMULATIONS UNDER THIS MAY ONLY BE A COUPLE OF INCHES AT
BEST.
FARTHER TO THE EAST OVER NORTHEAST IOWA INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...THE CONCERN STILL REMAINS WHETHER THERE WILL BE A LOSS
OF ICE IN THE DRY SLOT. THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE SHOULD
BE A TOTAL LOSS OF ICE OVER THIS AREA BUT CONCERNED THIS MAY NOT
BE OCCURRING. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES FROM SATELLITE DATA INDICATE
ICE IS STILL IN THE CLOUDS DOWN TO ABOUT CENTRAL IOWA AND THEN
THERE LOOKS TO A LOSS OF ICE. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS
LOSS OF ICE COMING INTO THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS FOR A CHANGE OVER
TO SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING RAIN. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME
ICING WITH A GLAZE OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES PAST THE AREA...THE WINDS WILL TURN MORE
TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP. WIND GUSTS OVERNIGHT FROM
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
SHOULD GET BACK INTO THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE TO PRODUCE SOME
BLOWING SNOW. JUST HOW MUCH BLOWING SNOW OCCURS COULD BE IMPACTED
ON WHETHER THE FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN OCCURS AND PUTS A HARD
COATING ON TOP OF THE SNOW.
THE 02.12Z MODEL DATA ALSO CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE OVERNIGHT WITH THE TAIL END OF THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS LATE TONIGHT. THIS FORCING LOOKS
TO BE ENOUGH AS ICE ALOFT COMES BACK INTO THE AREA TO PRODUCE A
SMALLER AREA OF ENHANCED SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOOKING TO GET
ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS SECONDARY PUSH.
BASED ON ALL THIS...THE ONLY PLANNED CHANGE TO THE CURRENT
HEADLINES TO TAKE THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE AREA AND DOWNGRADE
THE WARNING TO AN ADVISORY.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND
STILL LOOKING AT ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO COME DOWN OUT
OF CANADA AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE MOISTURE WILL NOT
HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE TO RECOVER AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SO ONLY
EXPECTING A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A BIT MORE LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND ALSO BRINGING IT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DROP ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE LOOKS TO BE A
LITTLE BIT STRONGER THAN THE THURSDAY WAVE...BUT AGAIN THERE WILL
BE VERY LIMITED TIME FOR ANY MOISTURE RETURN TO OCCUR. AS A
RESULT...NOT EXPECTING THIS WAVE TO BE ABLE TO PRODUCE MUCH SNOW
EITHER AND WILL HAVE SOME 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. THE PARADE OF NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEMS WILL THEN CONTINUE WITH
YET ANOTHER ONE COMING IN FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS
POINT...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGEST OF THESE NORTHWEST FLOW
SYSTEMS AND WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CARRY SOME 20 TO 40 PERCENT SNOW CHANCES
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES CENTERED ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED AWAY FROM TAF AIRFIELDS...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL ONE MORE ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS IA
THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. LATEST FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MUCH OF THIS SNOW SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF I-90.
WILL ADD TEMPO GROUPS FOR BRIEF WORSENING CONDITIONS...BUT
OTHERWISE EXPECT IMPROVED VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED LOW
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. LAST OF THE SNOW SHOULD FINALLY MOVE EAST OF
TAF AIRFIELDS BY 03.12Z...ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. EXPECT GUSTS FROM 24 TO 30
KTS AT BOTH AIRFIELDS WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY
IN BLSN AT KRST WITH THESE WINDS. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT AFTER
03.18Z WITH AN EXPECTANT SCATTERING OUT OF THE CLOUD DECK LATE IN
THE PERIOD.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ054-055-
061.
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
IA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ008>010-018-
019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ011-029-
030.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
403 AM PST WED FEB 3 2016
...LAST ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN TODAY...
...MUCH WARMER WEATHER GOING INTO NEXT WEEK...
.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY IN THE
EVENING. DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW RECORD
HIGHS MAY EVEN BE SET NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PST WEDNESDAY...CHILLY START TO THE
DAY TODAY THANKS TO FAIRLY LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES IN MANY SPOTS. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.
SO FAR FOR THE SHIFT KMUX RADAR HAS REMAINED IN CLEAR AIR MODE
THANKS TO NO PRECIP ECHOES BEING PICKED UP. THAT WILL CHANGE LATER
TODAY AS THE SECOND AND FINAL WEAK SYSTEM FOR THE WEEK MOVES
THROUGH OUR REGION. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR ALONG WITH THE NAM
ARE BOTH IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT RAIN WILL RETURN BACK TO THE
NORTH BAY BY LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN DOWN TO SF BAY REGION BY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE GREATEST OVER
THE NORTH BAY WHERE .2" TO .4" CAN BE EXPECTED. FOR SF BAY REGION
MOST SPOTS WILL LIKELY SEE LESS THAN 1/10" WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN
IN THE MONTEREY BAY AREA. DID LOOK AT VARIOUS CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS AND FEEL THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT OCCUR IN THE CWA.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S IN ALMOST ALL SPOTS.
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD TO THE WEST
COAST ON THURSDAY HELPING TO PUSH THE STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR
NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES -- IN
SOME CASES 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL -- WITH WIDESPREAD MID 60S TO
MID 70S EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN MOST SPOTS. NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT WE COULD EVEN SEE A FEW RECORD HIGHS NEXT
WEEK OR EVEN AN ISOLATED 80 DEGREE HIGH. (AS AN EXAMPLE, SAN JOSE
IS FORECAST TO HIT 72 ON SUNDAY WHICH IS JUST SHORT OF THE CURRENT
RECORD OF 76 SET BACK IN 1963). JUST HOW STRONG WILL THE RIDGE
BE? IF THE ECMWF FORECAST OF 500 MB HEIGHTS AT OAKLAND OF
586-587DM VERIFIES, IT WILL SET THE RECORD FOR THE DAY FOR 500 MB
HEIGHTS AND POTENTIALLY TIE THE MONTHLY RECORD. CURRENTLY DO NOT
SEE A SETUP FOR TULE FOG MOVING INTO OUR REGION, SO CONDITIONS
WILL BE NEAR IDEAL FOR ALL OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. IT WILL FEEL LIKE
SPRING IN FEBRUARY!
LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE FAVORS DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE MONTH.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 3:55 AM PST WEDNESDAY... PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH
LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. INTERMITTENT MVFR
POSBL AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH TODAY. RAIN WILL BE
LIGHT.
CURRENTLY... HIGH CLOUDS PRECEEDING AN ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARE MOVING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AOA 8-10K FT AGL. SATELLITE
PRODUCTS SHOWING THIN LAYER OF TULE FOG BANKED ALONG THE WEST SIDE
OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY. OFFSHORE/EAST WINDS COULD POTENTIALLY
ADVECT THIS TULE FOG INTO THE EAST BAY... HOWEVER NOT SEEING THIS
YET. INSTEAD... PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS THE
REGION INCLUDING BRIEFLY AT KSQL TO THE SOUTH OF KSFO.
CURRENTLY... THE SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY IS SHOWING THE MOST
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING FOG/LOW CLOUDS INTO THE SUNRISE HOUR GIVEN
LATEST TRENDS.
VICINITY OF KSFO... VFR THIS MORNING WITH INTERMITTENT MVFR POSBL
AT AND AROUND FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAINLY LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS. BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. NEED TO WATCH NEARBY OBS
CLOSELY TODAY AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN POPPING UP BRIEFLY AROUND
THE SOUTH BAY.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR... LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 03:49 AM PST WEDNESDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TODAY. WINDS WILL
PREDOMINATELY BE OFFSHORE/SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE AT THE MOUTH OF COASTAL GAPS SUCH AS AROUND THE GOLDEN
GATE...MONTEREY BAY... AND WEST OF POINT REYES. LARGE...LONG
PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
THEN SWELL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA AND ITS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE
WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 8 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
325 AM PST WED FEB 3 2016
...LAST ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN TODAY...
...MUCH WARMER WEATHER GOING INTO NEXT WEEK...
.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY IN THE
EVENING. DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW RECORD
HIGHS MAY EVEN BE SET NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PST WEDNESDAY...CHILLY START TO THE
DAY TODAY THANKS TO FAIRLY LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES IN MANY SPOTS. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.
SO FAR FOR THE SHIFT KMUX RADAR HAS REMAINED IN CLEAR AIR MODE
THANKS TO NO PRECIP ECHOES BEING PICKED UP. THAT WILL CHANGE LATER
TODAY AS THE SECOND AND FINAL WEAK SYSTEM FOR THE WEEK MOVES
THROUGH OUR REGION. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR ALONG WITH THE NAM
ARE BOTH IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT RAIN WILL RETURN BACK TO THE
NORTH BAY BY LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN DOWN TO SF BAY REGION BY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE GREATEST OVER
THE NORTH BAY WHERE .2" TO .4" CAN BE EXPECTED. FOR SF BAY REGION
MOST SPOTS WILL LIKELY SEE LESS THAN 1/10" WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN
IN THE MONTEREY BAY AREA. DID LOOK AT VARIOUS CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS AND FEEL THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT OCCUR IN THE CWA.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S IN ALMOST ALL SPOTS.
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD TO THE WEST
COAST ON THURSDAY HELPING TO PUSH THE STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR
NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES -- IN
SOME CASES 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL -- WITH WIDESPREAD MID 60S TO
MID 70S EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN MOST SPOTS. NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT WE COULD EVEN SEE A FEW RECORD HIGHS NEXT
WEEK OR EVEN AN ISOLATED 80 DEGREE HIGH. (AS AN EXAMPLE, SAN JOSE
IS FORECAST TO HIT 72 ON SUNDAY WHICH IS JUST SHORT OF THE CURRENT
RECORD OF 76 SET BACK IN 1963). JUST HOW STRONG WILL THE RIDGE
BE? IF THE ECMWF FORECAST OF 500 MB HEIGHTS AT OAKLAND OF
586-587DM VERIFIES, IT WILL SET THE RECORD FOR THE DAY FOR 500 MB
HEIGHTS AND POTENTIALLY TIE THE MONTHLY RECORD. CURRENTLY DO NOT
SEE A SETUP FOR TULE FOG MOVING INTO OUR REGION, SO CONDITIONS
WILL BE NEAR IDEAL FOR ALL OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. IT WILL FEEL LIKE
SPRING IN FEBRUARY!
LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE FAVORS DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE MONTH.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:18 PM PST TUESDAY...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING TOWARD THE BAY AREA OUT AHEAD
OF AN EPAC WARM FRONT. THIS WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE BAY AREA
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WITHIN A WEAKENING SURFACE
TROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING CAUSING SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATER IN
THE DAY MAINLY IN THE BAY AREA.
PRESENT PRESSURE GRADIENTS WMC-SFO 1.1 MB AND SAC-SFO 0.6 MB ARE
FORECAST TO STEEPEN A LITTLE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT
E-NE WINDS OVER OUR AREA EXCEPT A LITTLE GUSTY AT TIMES IN THE
NORTH AND EAST BAY MTNS/HILLS. TULE FOG IN THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY
CAN BECOME ADVECTED INTO THE EAST BAY IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN. AT
THE MOMENT GOES SATELLITE LIFR PRODUCT INDICATES PATCHY FOG CONFINED
TO EASTERN ALAMEDA COUNTY...SAN BENITO COUNTY AS WELL AS IN THE
SALINAS VALLEY. MOST PLACES ARE VFR THIS EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE
FOG FORECAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN INCREASING MIXING WINDS
WEDNESDAY SHOULD MIX OUT FOG PATCHES DURING THE DAY EXCEPT
POSSIBLY FAR INLAND VALLEYS WHERE LOWER LEVEL STABILITY PERSISTS.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER MID LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY VERY BRIEFLY RAMP
UP LATE WED AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTH
BAY PER RECENT MODEL FORECASTS. HIGH PRESSURE IS OTHERWISE EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH LATE WEEK AND THIS
WEEKEND.
VICINITY OF KSFO...MAINLY LIGHT NE-E WINDS. BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...WINDS BECOMING SE TONIGHT...MAINLY
LIGHT EXCEPT LOCALLY TO AROUND 10 KNOTS IN THE SALINAS VALLEY.
MAINLY VFR HOWEVER PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE
SALINAS VALLEY.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 9:10 PM PST TUESDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. LARGE...LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THEN SWELL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA AND ITS
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 8 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: CANEPA
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
938 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TO THE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH VERY MILD TEMPERATURES FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY. THE RAIN MAY START AS A LIGHT WINTRY MIX NORTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION BEFORE TURNING TO RAIN BY MID MORNING. IT WILL
ALSO BE BREEZY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS THIS EVENING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. COLDER AIR WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 938 AM EST...SFC LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LIFTING ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WITH A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND WILL BE
HEADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT...STEADY RAIN IS OCCURRING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS. KENX RADAR IS SHOWING SOME
HIGHER RETURNS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...BUT BASED ON BOTH
DUAL POL RADAR PRODUCTS AND MRMS ANALYSIS...IT SEEMS THIS IS
PROBABLY SOME BRIGHT BANDING. STILL...KRME HAS HAD HOURLY
RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH...SO SOME LOCALLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING.
ALTHOUGH THE SNOWPACK IS EXTREMELY LIMITED OVER THE AREA...NOHRSC
ANALYSIS SHOWS UP TO A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...TEMPS ARE ONLY IN THE MID 30S RIGHT
NOW...LIMITING SNOWMELT IN THAT AREA. AS TEMPS RISE LATER
TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT...SNOWMELT WILL COMBINE
WITH THE RAINFALL AND FROZEN GROUND IN PLACE TO CONTRIBUTE TO
SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF ACROSS THE AREA. SEE OUR HYDRO DISCUSSION FOR
HOW WE EXPECT THIS TO IMPACT OUR HSA.
A FEW SPOTS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EAST OF
THE TERRAIN ARE STILL 31-32 DEGREES. AN SPS CONTINUES FOR SOME
HIGHLY LOCALIZED FREEZING RAIN THAT STILL MAY BE
OCCURRING...LEAVING A LIGHT ACCRETION OF ICE. TEMPS SHOULD WARM
ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...ENDING THE
THREAT FOR ANY FREEZING PRECIP.
THE 13Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS STEADY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. BY THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS...STEADY RAINFALL WILL START TO TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST...AS THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT EXITS THE AREA TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND THE SFC COLD FRONT STARTS TO MOVE THROUGH.
ALTHOUGH TEMPS ARE STILL GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S...THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
FOR THIS AFTN TO VERY MILD LEVELS FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. HIGHS LOOK
TO REACH MID 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA...ESP FOR SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA.
E-SE WINDS ARE GUSTY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 30 KTS POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE...S-SE WINDS ARE 10-20 KTS WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER
GUSTS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHEST GUSTS ARE
PROBABLY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN HOURS WHEN THE STRONGEST LLWJ WILL
BE IN PLACE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OCCLUDES IN SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR
IS USHERED INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY AND
DIMINISH AS WELL...BUT STILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MOST AREAS LOOK TO BE PRECIP-FREE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW 30S TO LOW 40S.
A TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOST AREAS SEEING DRY WEATHER
AS HIGHER PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. THERE MAY
BE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...WITH LITTLE TO NO
EFFECT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID/UPPER 40S IN VALLEY AREAS. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER
20S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL TREND TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS AND GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN SETS UP WITH EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER
TROUGHING AND STRONG UPPER IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH THE MEAN UPPER
TROUGH. DURING THE WEEKEND...ONE STRONG UPPER IMPULSE IS FORECASTED
TO TRACK WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION AS SHORT WAVE UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AHEAD OF STRONGER UPPER ENERGY
SETTING UP TO DIVE OUT OF CANADA DURING THE BEGINNING AND MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S...WITH LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
QUITE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA THE BEGINNING TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME
DISAGREEMENTS AS TO WHERE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SETS UP...WHICH IS
KEY TO WHETHER A STRONG UPPER VORTEX TRACKS CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST
OF THE U.S. OR FURTHER OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALSO DETERMINE WHERE AND
WHEN ANY POTENTIAL ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL COULD OCCUR...IF ANY. HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THOSE DETAILS RESULTS IN JUST PUTTING CHANCES FOR
SNOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE MIX WITH
RAIN IN SOUTHERN AREAS...UNTIL DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...SOME 20S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...BUT AGAIN SOME 20S IN
NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH AGAIN 20S
IN NORTHERN AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE APPROACH THIS MORNING AND ITS EXPECTED
TO LIFT TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY THEN BE FOLLOWED BY THE COLD
FRONT...HOWEVER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND
06Z/THURSDAY.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH LIGHT
RAIN BEGINNING BETWEEN 12Z-14Z. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS THE PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE AREA. IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOPED BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN
PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT TOWARD 00Z AND
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD TREND TO MVFR. THE RAIN COULD TAKE
LONGER TO EXIT THE KPOU AND KPSF AREAS SO KEPT VCSH THERE 00Z-06Z
THIS EVENING.
SLEET WITH BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH KGFL AND KPSF...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE
RATHER BRIEF. OTHERWISE RAIN IS EXPECTED.
A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW IS EXPECTED AT 8-12 KT WITH SOME STRONGER
GUSTS...ESP AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE SOME GUSTS COULD REACH 20 KT. BY
THIS EVENING...SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 10
KT...THEN SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 06Z.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE PROBLEMATIC THIS MORNING...AS SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT. WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH AT 30-40 KT OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
THU-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. A WINTRY
MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL
REGION...OTHERWISE RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS TONIGHT WITH COLDER AIR USHERED
BACK IN. AROUND AN INCH TO INCH AND A HALF OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSER
TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...AND
THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.
THE LATEST OFFICIAL NERFC FORECASTS FOR THE MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE
ONLY KAST BRIDGE IN THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND WILLIAMSTOWN IN
THE NRN BERKS BARELY EXCEEDING THEIR RESPECTIVE ALERT STAGES BY A
FEW INCHES. OVERALL SOME 1 TO 2.5 FOOT RISES ARE EXPECTED ON THE
MAIN STEM RIVERS...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES COMBINED WITH RUNOFF OCCURS. ADDED
EFFECTS OF SNOWMELT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL BE MITIGATED
DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS THE REGION.
BEHIND THIS STORM SYSTEM...PRECIP WILL END AND TEMPS WILL TURN
COLDER...ALLOWING THE WATER TO RECEDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. OVERALL...NO WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ038-054-061-
084.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013-014.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...IRL/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
440 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
SOME LIGHT SNOW IS CONTINUING OVER PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO AND TOWARD THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF THE STATE. SOME
TEMPORARY MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE COMMON IN
THESE AREAS THROUGH 03/1600UTC...WITH SNOW DWINDLING TO JUST THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THEREAFTER. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT OVER THE NORTHERN PEAKS OF NEW MEXICO...BUT SOME
OCCASIONAL OBSCURATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL PEAKS CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TODAY. CLOUDS WILL THIN MORE INTO TONIGHT
WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES OVER THE NORTHERN PEAKS AFTER
DARK. SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT WILL BE COMMON FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF NEW MEXICO TO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TODAY.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...310 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TO THE TEXAS
BORDER SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND EXTEND INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST TONIGHT. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE LIGHT. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. A DRY BUT COLDER THAN NORMAL PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON ANY SIGNIFICANT STORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT
OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL REINFORCE COLD AIR OVER THE STATE AND
MAY BRING ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION TO THE NORTH
AT TIMES. BY NEXT TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO
WARMER THAN AVERAGE VALUES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES AT KCQC...KSAF AND KAXX AT THIS TIME...BUT
SHORT TERM MODELS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THIS SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL ALLOW THE WINTER WEATHER TO RUN
UNTIL IT/S EXPIRATION AT 5 AM. RUC13 AND HRRR INDICATE SOME LIGHT
SNOW REDEVELOPING OVER THE NRN MTS AND SPREADING INTO THE FAR NE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT NOT MUCH ACCUMULATING AS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT TRACK OVER THE REGION.
DEW POINTS CRATER TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR LOWS TO FALL TO 15 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE
NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WHICH WAS TO BE MUCH
STRONGER FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY IS NOW A FASTER MOVING TROUGH...AND AS
A RESULT MUCH DRIER. TRIMMED POPS BACK BUT DIDN/T GO QUITE AS FAR AS
GUIDANCE...WOULD LIKE TO SEE IF MODELS ESTABLISH THIS AS A TREND TO
BOOST CONFIDENCE BEFORE CUTTING BACK EVEN MORE.
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS ARE ABSENT FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES IN
NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH BRING COLD FRONTS AND BRISK WINDS TO REINFORCE
THE BELOW AVERAGE COLD...AS WELL AS MEAGER SNOWFALL TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST. SOME RELIEF INDICATED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN UNDER AN OVERALL DRY
WEATHER PATTERN.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL START THE DAY...AND AS UPSLOPE FLOW
DIMINISHES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...SO WILL THE SNOW
OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND EAST CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
THUS...THE CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL BE STEADILY DECREASING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY JUST THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OBSERVING LIGHT
SNOWFALL. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH...IF
ANY...FROM YESTERDAYS READINGS...STAYING WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST BREEZES REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO
ACCOUNT FOR A RELATIVELY STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A
SWATH OF 30-40 MPH WINDS AT THE 10000FT LEVEL. THESE BRISK WINDS
WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN A FAIR
VENTILATION CATEGORY...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AND THE FAR
WESTERN BORDER OF NM.
BY TONIGHT...MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SOME SNOW FLURRIES WILL LINGER IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE
THE BITTERLY COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DUE TO PLUMMETING
DEWPOINTS...LESS CLOUD COVER...AND LIGHTER WINDS.
FOR THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR TO WARM 3 TO 12 DEGREES AS
THE FLOW ALOFT TEMPORARILY SHIFTS MORE WESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW
PRESSURE HEIGHTS TO RISE AMIDST THE DRY ATMOSPHERE. THESE RISING
TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH THE VERY LOW DEWPOINTS WILL ACTUALLY CARRY
THE MINIMUM RH TO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE IN MUCH OF CENTRAL TO
EASTERN NM THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE
OBSERVED IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS AND EASTWARD INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS OF EAST CENTRAL NM. OUTSIDE OF THESE BREEZY AREAS...
VENTILATION WILL SUFFER DUE TO POOR MIXING.
FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL WORKING TO FIND THE CONSENSUS FOR FRIDAYS
WEATHER. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE NEXT PERTURBATION ALOFT WILL
APPROACH NM IN A WEAKER AND DRIER STATE THAN WAS ADVERTISED
YESTERDAY AND THE DAY BEFORE. IT CERTAINLY APPEAR INEVITABLE THAT
COOLER AIR WILL STUNT THE WARMING TREND...BUT ANY ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY BE ON THE MEAGER SIDE WITH THIS MORNINGS
FORECAST ONLY INCLUDING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MAINLY
THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A
FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES MORE ON SATURDAY...ACTUALLY RISING WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES OF SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON
SUNDAY...SO JUST AS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES WARM CLOSE TO
NORMAL...THE EAST WILL BE SET BACK SEVERAL DEGREES. IT NOW APPEARS
THE POLAR VORTEX WILL STEP EASTWARD OF THE HIGH PLAINS...AND
CONSEQUENTLY THIS WOULD SPELL A WARMING TREND FOR NM NEXT WEEK.
52
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ510-513>515-529-532-533.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
310 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TO THE TEXAS
BORDER SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND EXTEND INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST TONIGHT. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE LIGHT. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. A DRY BUT COLDER THAN NORMAL PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON ANY SIGNIFICANT STORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT
OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL REINFORCE COLD AIR OVER THE STATE AND
MAY BRING ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION TO THE NORTH
AT TIMES. BY NEXT TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO
WARMER THAN AVERAGE VALUES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES AT KCQC...KSAF AND KAXX AT THIS TIME...BUT
SHORT TERM MODELS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THIS SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL ALLOW THE WINTER WEATHER TO RUN
UNTIL IT/S EXPIRATION AT 5 AM. RUC13 AND HRRR INDICATE SOME LIGHT
SNOW REDEVELOPING OVER THE NRN MTS AND SPREADING INTO THE FAR NE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT NOT MUCH ACCUMULATING AS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT TRACK OVER THE REGION.
DEW POINTS CRATER TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR LOWS TO FALL TO 15 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE
NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WHICH WAS TO BE MUCH
STRONGER FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY IS NOW A FASTER MOVING TROUGH...AND AS
A RESULT MUCH DRIER. TRIMMED POPS BACK BUT DIDN/T GO QUITE AS FAR AS
GUIDANCE...WOULD LIKE TO SEE IF MODELS ESTABLISH THIS AS A TREND TO
BOOST CONFIDENCE BEFORE CUTTING BACK EVEN MORE.
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS ARE ABSENT FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES IN
NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH BRING COLD FRONTS AND BRISK WINDS TO REINFORCE
THE BELOW AVERAGE COLD...AS WELL AS MEAGER SNOWFALL TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST. SOME RELIEF INDICATED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN UNDER AN OVERALL DRY
WEATHER PATTERN.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL START THE DAY...AND AS UPSLOPE FLOW
DIMINISHES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...SO WILL THE SNOW
OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND EAST CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
THUS...THE CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL BE STEADILY DECREASING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY JUST THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OBSERVING LIGHT
SNOWFALL. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH...IF
ANY...FROM YESTERDAYS READINGS...STAYING WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST BREEZES REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO
ACCOUNT FOR A RELATIVELY STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A
SWATH OF 30-40 MPH WINDS AT THE 10000FT LEVEL. THESE BRISK WINDS
WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN A FAIR
VENTILATION CATEGORY...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AND THE FAR
WESTERN BORDER OF NM.
BY TONIGHT...MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SOME SNOW FLURRIES WILL LINGER IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE
THE BITTERLY COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DUE TO PLUMMETING
DEWPOINTS...LESS CLOUD COVER...AND LIGHTER WINDS.
FOR THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR TO WARM 3 TO 12 DEGREES AS
THE FLOW ALOFT TEMPORARILY SHIFTS MORE WESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW
PRESSURE HEIGHTS TO RISE AMIDST THE DRY ATMOSPHERE. THESE RISING
TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH THE VERY LOW DEWPOINTS WILL ACTUALLY CARRY
THE MINIMUM RH TO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE IN MUCH OF CENTRAL TO
EASTERN NM THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE
OBSERVED IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS AND EASTWARD INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS OF EAST CENTRAL NM. OUTSIDE OF THESE BREEZY AREAS...
VENTILATION WILL SUFFER DUE TO POOR MIXING.
FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL WORKING TO FIND THE CONSENSUS FOR FRIDAYS
WEATHER. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE NEXT PERTURBATION ALOFT WILL
APPROACH NM IN A WEAKER AND DRIER STATE THAN WAS ADVERTISED
YESTERDAY AND THE DAY BEFORE. IT CERTAINLY APPEAR INEVITABLE THAT
COOLER AIR WILL STUNT THE WARMING TREND...BUT ANY ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY BE ON THE MEAGER SIDE WITH THIS MORNINGS
FORECAST ONLY INCLUDING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MAINLY
THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A
FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES MORE ON SATURDAY...ACTUALLY RISING WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES OF SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON
SUNDAY...SO JUST AS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES WARM CLOSE TO
NORMAL...THE EAST WILL BE SET BACK SEVERAL DEGREES. IT NOW APPEARS
THE POLAR VORTEX WILL STEP EASTWARD OF THE HIGH PLAINS...AND
CONSEQUENTLY THIS WOULD SPELL A WARMING TREND FOR NM NEXT WEEK.
52
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
AN AREA OF SNOW IS CONTINUING OVER PORTIONS OF EAST NM...CENTERED
OVER GUADALUPE AND DE BACA COUNTIES. IT IS FINALLY ENDING IN LVS.
SNOW SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND END SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. NC MTNS WILL HAVE MTN TOP OBSCD THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED CLEARING
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME LOW
CIGS AS A RESULT OF THIS CLEARING ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR
DEVELOPMENT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS. 40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 30 5 32 9 / 5 0 5 10
DULCE........................... 25 -6 30 0 / 20 5 10 10
CUBA............................ 26 -4 32 4 / 10 0 5 10
GALLUP.......................... 31 -8 39 3 / 5 0 5 10
EL MORRO........................ 27 -6 37 0 / 5 0 5 5
GRANTS.......................... 33 -5 40 6 / 5 0 5 5
QUEMADO......................... 34 6 41 9 / 5 0 5 5
GLENWOOD........................ 40 9 46 12 / 5 0 0 5
CHAMA........................... 22 -11 27 -5 / 30 10 10 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 25 8 35 13 / 10 0 0 5
PECOS........................... 25 4 36 11 / 10 0 0 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 22 -11 27 0 / 10 10 5 10
RED RIVER....................... 17 -21 26 -6 / 20 20 10 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 18 -24 27 -4 / 20 10 5 10
TAOS............................ 24 -9 29 2 / 10 10 0 10
MORA............................ 24 -3 35 10 / 20 5 0 5
ESPANOLA........................ 30 2 36 9 / 10 0 0 5
SANTA FE........................ 26 2 33 10 / 10 0 0 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 29 4 35 13 / 10 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 31 13 36 17 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 34 15 39 20 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 35 8 41 13 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 34 9 40 14 / 5 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 36 12 42 18 / 5 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 34 14 38 19 / 5 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 39 15 44 21 / 5 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 27 7 34 15 / 5 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 29 8 35 15 / 5 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 30 -1 38 9 / 5 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 27 6 35 12 / 10 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 31 9 40 18 / 5 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 35 14 43 21 / 5 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 32 14 41 20 / 5 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 26 1 39 12 / 10 10 0 5
RATON........................... 28 -4 38 12 / 10 10 0 5
SPRINGER........................ 27 0 38 12 / 10 10 0 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 26 2 39 14 / 10 5 0 5
CLAYTON......................... 33 12 44 20 / 10 10 0 5
ROY............................. 32 10 42 18 / 10 5 0 5
CONCHAS......................... 36 13 46 20 / 10 0 0 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 37 14 47 22 / 10 0 0 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 39 14 49 23 / 10 5 0 5
CLOVIS.......................... 40 16 48 21 / 5 0 0 5
PORTALES........................ 39 17 49 23 / 5 0 0 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 39 16 47 21 / 10 0 0 5
ROSWELL......................... 43 18 49 21 / 10 0 0 5
PICACHO......................... 39 15 48 21 / 10 0 0 5
ELK............................. 35 14 45 20 / 5 0 0 5
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1023 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND PUSH INTO THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT AND THEN STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OFFSHORE
DURING THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT. COLD AND
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BRINGING THE RISK OF MORE PRECIPITATION. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WARM FRONT IS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
AND A STEADY SOUTH WIND INCREASED OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING TO NEAR 70 EXCEPT FOR THE BEACHES WHERE
THE COLD SHELF WATERS ARE KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
60S.
AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES IT WAY TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA THE
HRRR IS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING WELL AHEAD OF THE
LINE OF CONVECTION. THE HRRR SHOWS A LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING IN
TO THE FORECAST AREA THE EVENING AN SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST AS THE MARINE LAYER KNOCKS DOWN THE
CONVECTION.
AS THE FORCING OF THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AS IT REACHES THE COAST.
WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF MAXING OUT AT AROUND 1.8 AND
THE SLOW NATURE OF THE FRONT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE AREA CONTINUES UNDER A MARGINAL RISK WITH SHEAR INCREASING BY
THE MID AFTERNOON BUT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THE BEST SO
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS ISOLATED MAINLY FOR WINDS AND WITH A
LESSER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFFSHORE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. AN ELONGATED MOISTURE FEED WILL EXTEND
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WELL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. THE
FRONT WILL BE WAITING ON A DECENT MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST FOR
THE FINAL PUSH OFFSHORE. OVERALL I INCREASED POPS THURSDAY INTO
THE EVENING HOURS VIA A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SCENARIO WITH THE LATEST
GUIDANCE. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD WANE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. FOR
FRIDAY EXPECT SLOW CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AND A COLD BLUSTERY
DAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE LOWER 50S. CLEAR AND
COLD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOST AREAS SEEING LOWS AT OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...INTERESTING AND ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SATURDAY WILL BE UNEVENTFUL ENOUGH WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING BASICALLY EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE ROCKIES LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS
ENSUING AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF AND MOVES ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. THE GFS IS MOST INTERESTING AND COLDER WITH SOME FROZEN
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE VIA OUR STATE OF THE ART TOP DOWN
METHODOLOGIES. THE LATEST ECMWF...WHICH IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION
VIA CONSISTENCY IS ADVERTISING A COLD RAIN. THE SYSTEM DEFINITELY
BEARS WATCHING. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL COULD SPELL TROUBLE BY
ITSELF IF THE ANTICIPATED QPF AMOUNTS COME CLOSE WITH THE CURRENT
EVENT. BEYOND THIS... SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST TROUGHING DEVELOPS
SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE COLD AIR. A POWERFUL VORT THAT WILL
BRING THE COLDEST OF AIR LATE COULD BRING A FEW SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A
SYSTEM FOR THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST REMAINS ON THE COLD SIDE WITH A VERY TEPID AND BRIEF
WARMUP MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DETERIORATING BACK TO MVFR/IFR
THIS EVENING AS A WARM FRONT AND COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA. EXPECT MVFR/IFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
WITH A WARM FRONT PROGGED TO PUSH NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...WILL SEE LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG IMPROVE BEHIND THIS
FEATURE TO VFR. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR/IFR AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...LOW CIGS...AND AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WILL MENTION THAT SEA FOG IS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE HAVE NOT INTRODUCED IN
CURRENT FORECAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TODAY...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING TO AOB 15 KTS AND GUSTS UP
TO 25 KTS...POTENTIALLY HIGHER IN ANY THUNDERSTORM.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ON THURSDAY.
BECOMING VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A FEW AREAS OF
PATCHY SEA FOG THIS MORNING. THE WINDS ARE INCREASING BUT BELOW
SMALL CRAFT AT THE BUOYS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THE WINDS AT
FRYING PAN ARE NOW IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS OF 6.9
FEET. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER. TO THE SOUTH A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL CONTINUE.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR A FEW
HOURS EARLY THURSDAY AS A FRONT TRUDGES SLOWLY TO THE EAST. SPEEDS
WILL BE 10-15 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN NORTHEAST AS THE DAY CONCLUDES. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE WILL STRENGTHEN AND SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS. BY EARLY FRIDAY SPEEDS INCREASE FURTHER FOR
A FEW HOURS TO JUST OVER 25 KNOTS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH ALL THE WHILE FROM THE NORTHEAST. SEAS WILL
DECREASE FROM SMALL CRAFT VALUES THURSDAY THEN INCREASE
CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY OUTER WATERS LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
THE INCREASING WIND FIELDS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...ONE DECENT DAY SATURDAY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS
FROM 10-15 KNOTS. SPEEDS PICK UP SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WINDS TO 20-25 KNOTS.
SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET SATURDAY INCREASING WITH THE WINDS SUNDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1024 AM PST WED FEB 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY IN THE
EVENING. DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP REGION-WIDE TOMORROW
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW
RECORD HIGHS MAY EVEN BE SET NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:38 AM PST WEDNESDAY...COOL TEMPERATURES
PERSIST OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH MOST LOCATIONS GENERALLY
IN THE 40S. ONLY A FEW/SCT PASSING HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD
OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM FORECAST TO
IMPACT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE LATEST SHORT-TERM FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTH BAY UNTIL MAINLY
AFTER 4 PM PST AND NOT UNTIL AFTER 7 PM FOR THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY
AREA. IN ADDITION, MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF SAN FRANCISCO WILL
LIKELY ONLY SEE A TRACE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION UP TO ONE-
HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE
BASED ON THE LATEST ANALYSIS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PST WEDNESDAY...CHILLY START TO
THE DAY TODAY THANKS TO FAIRLY LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES IN MANY SPOTS. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
SO FAR FOR THE SHIFT KMUX RADAR HAS REMAINED IN CLEAR AIR MODE
THANKS TO NO PRECIP ECHOES BEING PICKED UP. THAT WILL CHANGE LATER
TODAY AS THE SECOND AND FINAL WEAK SYSTEM FOR THE WEEK MOVES
THROUGH OUR REGION. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR ALONG WITH THE NAM
ARE BOTH IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT RAIN WILL RETURN BACK TO THE
NORTH BAY BY LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN DOWN TO SF BAY REGION BY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE GREATEST OVER
THE NORTH BAY WHERE .2" TO .4" CAN BE EXPECTED. FOR SF BAY REGION
MOST SPOTS WILL LIKELY SEE LESS THAN 1/10" WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN
IN THE MONTEREY BAY AREA. DID LOOK AT VARIOUS CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS AND FEEL THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT OCCUR IN THE CWA.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S IN ALMOST ALL SPOTS.
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD TO THE WEST
COAST ON THURSDAY HELPING TO PUSH THE STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR
NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES -- IN
SOME CASES 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL -- WITH WIDESPREAD MID 60S TO
MID 70S EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN MOST SPOTS. NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT WE COULD EVEN SEE A FEW RECORD HIGHS NEXT
WEEK OR EVEN AN ISOLATED 80 DEGREE HIGH. (AS AN EXAMPLE, SAN JOSE
IS FORECAST TO HIT 72 ON SUNDAY WHICH IS JUST SHORT OF THE CURRENT
RECORD OF 76 SET BACK IN 1963). JUST HOW STRONG WILL THE RIDGE
BE? IF THE ECMWF FORECAST OF 500 MB HEIGHTS AT OAKLAND OF
586-587DM VERIFIES, IT WILL SET THE RECORD FOR THE DAY FOR 500 MB
HEIGHTS AND POTENTIALLY TIE THE MONTHLY RECORD. CURRENTLY DO NOT
SEE A SETUP FOR TULE FOG MOVING INTO OUR REGION, SO CONDITIONS
WILL BE NEAR IDEAL FOR ALL OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. IT WILL FEEL LIKE
SPRING IN FEBRUARY!
LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE FAVORS DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE MONTH.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:23 AM PST WEDNESDAY... PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH
LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONT WILL BRING AREAS
OF MVFR AND LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...
SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE BAY AREA THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR IN THE MONTEREY BAY AREA. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
CURRENTLY... HIGH CLOUDS PRECEDING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE MOVING
OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AOA 6-8K FT AGL. SATELLITE PRODUCTS
SHOWING THIN LAYER OF TULE FOG BANKED ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE
CENTRAL VALLEY BUT OFFSHORE/EAST WINDS ARE TOO LIGHT TO ADVECT
THIS INTO THE EAST BAY.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THIS MORNING WITH INTERMITTENT MVFR AND LIGHT
RAIN POSBL AROUND 00Z...THEN MVFR AND A FEW POST FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FROM AROUND 06Z THROUGH 16Z WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS. CONFIDENCE ON POTENTIAL WIND PROBLEMS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
ARE LOW...BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY AS FRONT APPROACHES.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN BECOME VFR THURSDAY MORNING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR... LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 09:50 AM PST WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE PASSING FRONT WILL BRING OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT THE MOUTH OF
COASTAL GAPS SUCH AS THE GOLDEN GATE...MONTEREY BAY...AND WEST OF
POINT REYES. LARGE...LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THEN SWELL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA AND ITS
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR FROM 3 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: MM/DW
MARINE: MM
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
945 AM PST WED FEB 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY IN THE
EVENING. DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP REGION-WIDE TOMORROW
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW
RECORD HIGHS MAY EVEN BE SET NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:38 AM PST WEDNESDAY...COOL TEMPERATURES
PERSIST OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH MOST LOCATIONS GENERALLY
IN THE 40S. ONLY A FEW/SCT PASSING HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD
OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM FORECAST TO
IMPACT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE LATEST SHORT-TERM FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTH BAY UNTIL MAINLY
AFTER 4 PM PST AND NOT UNTIL AFTER 7 PM FOR THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY
AREA. IN ADDITION, MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF SAN FRANCISCO WILL
LIKELY ONLY SEE A TRACE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION UP TO ONE-
HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE
BASED ON THE LATEST ANALYSIS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PST WEDNESDAY...CHILLY START TO
THE DAY TODAY THANKS TO FAIRLY LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES IN MANY SPOTS. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
SO FAR FOR THE SHIFT KMUX RADAR HAS REMAINED IN CLEAR AIR MODE
THANKS TO NO PRECIP ECHOES BEING PICKED UP. THAT WILL CHANGE LATER
TODAY AS THE SECOND AND FINAL WEAK SYSTEM FOR THE WEEK MOVES
THROUGH OUR REGION. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR ALONG WITH THE NAM
ARE BOTH IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT RAIN WILL RETURN BACK TO THE
NORTH BAY BY LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN DOWN TO SF BAY REGION BY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE GREATEST OVER
THE NORTH BAY WHERE .2" TO .4" CAN BE EXPECTED. FOR SF BAY REGION
MOST SPOTS WILL LIKELY SEE LESS THAN 1/10" WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN
IN THE MONTEREY BAY AREA. DID LOOK AT VARIOUS CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS AND FEEL THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT OCCUR IN THE CWA.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S IN ALMOST ALL SPOTS.
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD TO THE WEST
COAST ON THURSDAY HELPING TO PUSH THE STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR
NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES -- IN
SOME CASES 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL -- WITH WIDESPREAD MID 60S TO
MID 70S EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN MOST SPOTS. NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT WE COULD EVEN SEE A FEW RECORD HIGHS NEXT
WEEK OR EVEN AN ISOLATED 80 DEGREE HIGH. (AS AN EXAMPLE, SAN JOSE
IS FORECAST TO HIT 72 ON SUNDAY WHICH IS JUST SHORT OF THE CURRENT
RECORD OF 76 SET BACK IN 1963). JUST HOW STRONG WILL THE RIDGE
BE? IF THE ECMWF FORECAST OF 500 MB HEIGHTS AT OAKLAND OF
586-587DM VERIFIES, IT WILL SET THE RECORD FOR THE DAY FOR 500 MB
HEIGHTS AND POTENTIALLY TIE THE MONTHLY RECORD. CURRENTLY DO NOT
SEE A SETUP FOR TULE FOG MOVING INTO OUR REGION, SO CONDITIONS
WILL BE NEAR IDEAL FOR ALL OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. IT WILL FEEL LIKE
SPRING IN FEBRUARY!
LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE FAVORS DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE MONTH.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 3:55 AM PST WEDNESDAY... PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH
LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. INTERMITTENT MVFR
POSBL AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH TODAY. RAIN WILL BE
LIGHT.
CURRENTLY... HIGH CLOUDS PRECEDING AN ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARE MOVING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AOA 8-10K FT AGL. SATELLITE
PRODUCTS SHOWING THIN LAYER OF TULE FOG BANKED ALONG THE WEST SIDE
OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY. OFFSHORE/EAST WINDS COULD POTENTIALLY
ADVECT THIS TULE FOG INTO THE EAST BAY... HOWEVER NOT SEEING THIS
YET. INSTEAD... PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS THE
REGION INCLUDING BRIEFLY AT KSQL TO THE SOUTH OF KSFO.
CURRENTLY... THE SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY IS SHOWING THE MOST
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING FOG/LOW CLOUDS INTO THE SUNRISE HOUR GIVEN
LATEST TRENDS.
VICINITY OF KSFO... VFR THIS MORNING WITH INTERMITTENT MVFR POSBL
AT AND AROUND FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAINLY LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS. BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. NEED TO WATCH NEARBY OBS
CLOSELY TODAY AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN POPPING UP BRIEFLY AROUND
THE SOUTH BAY.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR... LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 09:38 AM PST WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE PASSING FRONT WILL BRING OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT THE MOUTH OF
COASTAL GAPS SUCH AS THE GOLDEN GATE...MONTEREY BAY...AND WEST OF
POINT REYES. LARGE...LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THEN SWELL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA AND ITS
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR FROM 3 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: MM
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1138 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DIMINISHING BUT STILL ANTICIPATING BLOWING
SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. THE ENHANCED MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW BAND IS
QUICKLY FALLING APART ACROSS THE EAST...BUT EXPECT ANOTHER INCH
POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 12Z OVER THE EAST. VISIBILITY WITHIN THE BAND
HAS BEEN LESS THAN A HALF MILE AT TIMES...SO KEPT HEADLINES GOING
THROUGH THE EXPIRATIONS TIME OF 12Z. HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS SNOW BAND MOVING EAST. THE BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS COMBINED
WITH THE HEAVY SNOW PACK OVER CENTRAL TO NORTHERN IOWA WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE SOME SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS THROUGH
18Z BEFORE WINDS SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT SNOW
CHANCES GOING ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AS
SOUNDINGS COOL AND REMAIN SATURATED WITHIN THE DENDRITIC LAYER. SO
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES LIKELY TO CONTINUE...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. OBVIOUSLY ANY ADDITIONAL
FALLING SNOW WITH THE CURRENT SNOW PACK AND WINDS...VISIBILITY
CONCERNS AND TRAVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN HAZARDOUS. THIS IS LIKELY TO
BE HANDLED WITH A WINTER WX ADVISORY ONCE THE WARNINGS EXPIRE AT
12Z THIS MORNING.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016
LONGER TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MEAN
EASTERN TROF AND RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST. THROUGH THE END OF THIS
WORK WEEK...A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL DROP THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST PROVIDING THE BEST THREAT OF ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER.
AS FOR TONIGHT IN IOWA...WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY AS
THERMAL TROF PUSHES EAST OF THE STATE. THIS IS ALSO IN ADVANCE OF
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY. THE
BULK OF FORCING WITH THIS WAVE WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF IOWA
AND MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED. AT MOST...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST INTO THURSDAY
BUT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL. THE NEXT WAVE TO
AFFECT THE STATE WILL TOP THE WESTERN RIDGE AND APPROACH LATER
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. FORCING WILL BE A BIT MORE ROBUST
ACROSS IOWA WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT OVERALL MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED.
THEREFORE...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PCPN IN NORTHERN IOWA ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES...OVERALL PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY MORE WITH
WESTERN RIDGE STRENGTHENING ALLOWING EASTERN TROF TO DEEPEN.
ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THIS DEEPENING TROF DRAGGING
ARCTIC AIR FROM CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL US BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MUCH COLDER AIR IS ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY
ALONG WITH SOME THREAT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY WITH
SURFACE READINGS APPROACHING DENDRITIC GROWTH VALUES. TEMPERATURES
MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT TRANSITIONAL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH BAROCLINIC
ZONE SHIFTING BACK AND FORTH THROUGH THE MID AND LOWER MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY DURING THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...03/18Z
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH 22Z AND
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE THROUGH 03Z. SOME VSBYS
STILL AFFECTED BY BLSN BUT IN GENERAL THE WIND IS CAUSING MORE LOW
LEVEL DRIFTING. REMAINING VSBYS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH 21Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRISK WINDS AFT 04/12Z.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ADAIR-ADAMS-BLACK HAWK-CASS-CLARKE-GRUNDY-JASPER-MADISON-
MARSHALL-POLK-TAMA-UNION-WARREN.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...FAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
305 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016
CLOUDS QUICKLY CLEARED OUT BEHIND THE FRONT EARLIER TODAY AS DRY
AIR FILTERED INTO THE REGION. THANKS TO PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...HIGHS ARE TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL TAKE A TUMBLE TO NEAR FREEZING OR JUST
BELOW...EVEN WITH LLVL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE
LLVL MOISTURE WILL GET TRAPPED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT
AND MORNING PERIOD BEFORE CLEARING OUT SOMETIME IN THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST...USHERING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWING TOMORROW WITH HIGHS
ONLY NIPPING AT THE 40 DEGREE MARK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS
BUILDING INTO THE COMMONWEALTH THURSDAY EVENING MAKING FOR A
CHILLY NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 20 DEGREES. A SUNNY
AND SEASONABLE DAY IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016
THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE EXTENDED TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. THEY ALL STILL SHIFT
THE CURRENT INBOUND TROUGH EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO FRIDAY
WITH A PERIOD OF BRIEF RIDGING TO FOLLOW INTO SATURDAY. THEY ARE
NOW BETTER ALIGNED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND ALONG THE GULF COAST DURING THE HEART
OF THE WEEKEND. WITH THIS FEATURE...THE GFS IS STILL SLIGHTLY
DEEPER AND FASTER THAN THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELS. THE SYSTEM
IS ALSO MOSTLY SEPARATED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM IN ALL MODELS.
THIS WAVE GOES BY TO THE SOUTH OF KENTUCKY AND DEEPENS IN THE GFS
AND ECMWF AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...A DEEPER TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...CARVING OUT A NEARLY CLOSED LOW JUST
TO OUR WEST BY MONDAY MORNING. WITH PRETTY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
THIS DEVELOPMENT THEN ROLLS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER MONDAY
CRASHING OUR HEIGHTS AND POTENTIALLY SETTING UP AS A VERY DEEP
UPPER LEVEL LOW ABOVE KENTUCKY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT WILL HELP TO SLOWLY BUILD SOME CONFIDENCE IN THIS MORE
SIGNIFICANT EVOLUTION AS WELL AS A BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MODERATING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
HELPING TO DRY OUT THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WEAK WEATHER MAKER
PASSES TO OUR SOUTH AND OUR NEXT ONE STARTS TO CONSOLIDATE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THINGS WILL START TO GET INTERESTING ON MONDAY
AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NORTHWEST SYSTEM STARTS TO DEEPEN AND
SPREAD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
LEVELS WOULD EXPECT TO SEE THIS COOL THE COLUMN OVER KENTUCKY AND
CHANGE ANY LIGHT PCPN OVER TO SNOW BY TUESDAY MORNING. UNDER THIS
SCENARIO...BASED ON A COMBINATION OF THE GFS AND ECMWF...WE WOULD
SEE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE IN THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
CURRENTLY NEITHER MODEL SOLUTION LOOKS ALL TOO REALISTIC AS ANY
SFC DEVELOPMENT WOULD TEND TO FAVOR A JUMP TO THE COAST OR JUST
SPINNING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE
SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE. LOOK FOR FURTHER REFINEMENT AND
DEFINITION FOR THIS SYSTEM FROM THE MODELS WITH TIME. FOR NOW...
WILL PUSH MID RANGE CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WHILE ALSO INTRODUCING THE SYSTEM IN THE HWO AS ONE THAT
HAS POTENTIAL TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO AT LEAST PARTS OF THE
AREA.
ADJUSTED THE GRIDS FROM THE CR INIT MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR SMALL TO
MODERATE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. ALSO TWEAKED THE POP GRIDS LATER
IN THE PERIOD TO REFLECT SLOWLY GROWING CONFIDENCE IN A COMPLEX
WINTRY FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016
THE RAIN...ALONG WITH MOST OF THE CLOUDS HAVE EXITED THE REGION TO
THE EAST AS DRIER AIR QUICKLY MOVED IN. THIS HAS ALLOWED
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS ALL TAF SITES WITH SOME
SCATTERED CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WITH
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES BY...POSSIBLY PRODUCING A
FEW FLURRIES. CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE
REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
25KT POSSIBLE. BY TONIGHT...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE...ALLOWING FOR
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JVM
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
300 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016
.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EST Wed Feb 3 2016
Main forecast concerns in the short term are sprinkles/clouds this
evening and temperatures. Overall, relatively benign weather in the
short term.
Stratus deck upstream associated with the advancing upper trough
axis will swing through southern Indiana and central Kentucky late
this afternoon and into the evening hours. 12z ILX sounding and HRRR
soundings for the area this evening show this stratus to be about 50
to maybe 100 mb thick and with weak lift present this evening, there
could be a few sprinkles across southern Indiana and north central
Kentucky. HRRR simulated reflectivity has been consistent showing a
thin band over the area between 4 and 10p, so have maintained slight
chance of sprinkles in the forecast. Winds will remain gusty to near
20 to perhaps 25 mph at times through the evening as well with
temperatures falling into the mid/upper 30s.
Surface high pressure moves across the area Thursday and Thursday
night, setting up a cool but dry day. Plan on highs in the upper 30s
to around 40 degrees. We`ll have some morning stratus around but as
the high advances east, this should erode and push east giving way
to some sun by afternoon. Thursday night lows look to fall into the
mid 20s with mostly clear skies and lighter winds.
.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 250 PM EST Wed Feb 3 2016
The main forecast concern in the long term period is precipitation
chances and temperatures next week.
Friday through the weekend the region will be under the influence of
high pressure at the surface and zonal flow aloft. A couple weather
systems look to pass well south and north of the area, but southern
Indiana and central Kentucky will generally see seasonal
temperatures and dry conditions.
By late Sunday night into Monday, a surface low and anomalously deep
upper trough looks to swing through the Upper Midwest and Great
Lakes. This will spill colder air down into the area and chances for
precipitation. Depending on temperatures, rain may mix with or
changeover to snow Monday. As the upper trough hangs overhead and
more cold air arrives Monday night and Tuesday, temperatures would
be cold enough to support all snow. The GFS 850 mb temperatures are
considerably colder than the ECMWF and GEM 3.12z solutions. A model
consensus trended downward from the previous forecast, with highs
Tuesday and Wednesday in the mid 20s to low 30s and morning
temperatures in the teens. This may trend further down if the GFS
solutions end up verifying. Precipitation chances were brought up
into the 30 to 50 percent range Monday through Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1217 PM EST Wed Feb 3 2016
Currently, the TAF sites are in the dry slot in the post frontal
wake. Mainly clear skies were noted and VFR conditions are expected
through the afternoon hours. Main forecast issue will be surface
winds. Gusty southwest winds at 15-20kts and gusts up 25 kts at
KBWG and up to 30-35kts at KSDF/KLEX will be possible...resulting in
cross winds on the parallel runways at KSDF.
Shield of low clouds to the northwest will continue to move
southeastward and into KSDF/KBWG by 03/21-22Z and then into KLEX by
04/00Z or so. Ceilings this evening look to remain in the VFR
category with heights around 5Kft AGL. Surface winds will decrease
with the arrival of the lower cloudiness in the 03/21-22Z time
frame. We expect winds to back to the west and speeds should
decrease into the 8-12kt range and then into the 6-8kt range for the
overnight period.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........ZT
Aviation..........MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1042 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLD LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HRS BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE. LOOKING AT MTN TOP OBSCD AND SOME LOCALIZED MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE NC MTNS TODAY
BUT TERMINAL TAF SITES WILL NOT BE IMPACTED. CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT AND FRESH SNOWPACK MEANS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS/VIS
RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT. MIXED SIGNALS FROM THE MODELS AT LVS SO
DECIDED TO HOLD OF IN PLACING RESTRICTIONS IN THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL RELOOK FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
ISSUANCE. FMN LATE TONIGHT IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY BUT LEFT IT OUT
AT THIS TIME.
50
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...310 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TO THE TEXAS
BORDER SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND EXTEND INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST TONIGHT. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE LIGHT. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. A DRY BUT COLDER THAN NORMAL PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON ANY SIGNIFICANT STORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT
OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL REINFORCE COLD AIR OVER THE STATE AND
MAY BRING ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION TO THE NORTH
AT TIMES. BY NEXT TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO
WARMER THAN AVERAGE VALUES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES AT KCQC...KSAF AND KAXX AT THIS TIME...BUT
SHORT TERM MODELS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THIS SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL ALLOW THE WINTER WEATHER TO RUN
UNTIL IT/S EXPIRATION AT 5 AM. RUC13 AND HRRR INDICATE SOME LIGHT
SNOW REDEVELOPING OVER THE NRN MTS AND SPREADING INTO THE FAR NE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT NOT MUCH ACCUMULATING AS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT TRACK OVER THE REGION.
DEW POINTS CRATER TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR LOWS TO FALL TO 15 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE
NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WHICH WAS TO BE MUCH
STRONGER FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY IS NOW A FASTER MOVING TROUGH...AND AS
A RESULT MUCH DRIER. TRIMMED POPS BACK BUT DIDN/T GO QUITE AS FAR AS
GUIDANCE...WOULD LIKE TO SEE IF MODELS ESTABLISH THIS AS A TREND TO
BOOST CONFIDENCE BEFORE CUTTING BACK EVEN MORE.
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS ARE ABSENT FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES IN
NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH BRING COLD FRONTS AND BRISK WINDS TO REINFORCE
THE BELOW AVERAGE COLD...AS WELL AS MEAGER SNOWFALL TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST. SOME RELIEF INDICATED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN UNDER AN OVERALL DRY
WEATHER PATTERN.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL START THE DAY...AND AS UPSLOPE FLOW
DIMINISHES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...SO WILL THE SNOW
OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND EAST CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
THUS...THE CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL BE STEADILY DECREASING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY JUST THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OBSERVING LIGHT
SNOWFALL. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH...IF
ANY...FROM YESTERDAYS READINGS...STAYING WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST BREEZES REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO
ACCOUNT FOR A RELATIVELY STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A
SWATH OF 30-40 MPH WINDS AT THE 10000FT LEVEL. THESE BRISK WINDS
WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN A FAIR
VENTILATION CATEGORY...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AND THE FAR
WESTERN BORDER OF NM.
BY TONIGHT...MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SOME SNOW FLURRIES WILL LINGER IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE
THE BITTERLY COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DUE TO PLUMMETING
DEWPOINTS...LESS CLOUD COVER...AND LIGHTER WINDS.
FOR THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR TO WARM 3 TO 12 DEGREES AS
THE FLOW ALOFT TEMPORARILY SHIFTS MORE WESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW
PRESSURE HEIGHTS TO RISE AMIDST THE DRY ATMOSPHERE. THESE RISING
TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH THE VERY LOW DEWPOINTS WILL ACTUALLY CARRY
THE MINIMUM RH TO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE IN MUCH OF CENTRAL TO
EASTERN NM THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE
OBSERVED IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS AND EASTWARD INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS OF EAST CENTRAL NM. OUTSIDE OF THESE BREEZY AREAS...
VENTILATION WILL SUFFER DUE TO POOR MIXING.
FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL WORKING TO FIND THE CONSENSUS FOR FRIDAYS
WEATHER. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE NEXT PERTURBATION ALOFT WILL
APPROACH NM IN A WEAKER AND DRIER STATE THAN WAS ADVERTISED
YESTERDAY AND THE DAY BEFORE. IT CERTAINLY APPEAR INEVITABLE THAT
COOLER AIR WILL STUNT THE WARMING TREND...BUT ANY ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY BE ON THE MEAGER SIDE WITH THIS MORNINGS
FORECAST ONLY INCLUDING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MAINLY
THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A
FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES MORE ON SATURDAY...ACTUALLY RISING WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES OF SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON
SUNDAY...SO JUST AS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES WARM CLOSE TO
NORMAL...THE EAST WILL BE SET BACK SEVERAL DEGREES. IT NOW APPEARS
THE POLAR VORTEX WILL STEP EASTWARD OF THE HIGH PLAINS...AND
CONSEQUENTLY THIS WOULD SPELL A WARMING TREND FOR NM NEXT WEEK.
52
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
328 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE
KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THURSDAY. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW MAY DEVELOP
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND PERHAPS EVEN
SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION. ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTION WHICH IS PRODUCING ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER TO THE WEST. THE LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING THE
CONVECTION SLOWLY SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY
21 UTC AND CREEPING TO THE EAST AND TOWARD THE COAST JUST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.
THE INITIAL THREAT IS AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH DAMAGING
WINDS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO IT WE CONTINUE TO SEE THE BOWING
IN THE CONVECTIVE LINES. THE BIGGER THREAT WITH HIGHER PROBABILITY
IS THE HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SLOW MOVING LINE. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
IS RUNNING AROUND 1.8 WHICH IS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR AND AS THE CONVECTION SHIFTS EASTWARD IT WILL SLOW AND THIS
WILL INCREASE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT OF 2 INCH AMOUNTS IN SOME
PLACES.
LOWS OVERNIGHT AREA EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH
THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...RATHER COPIOUS RAIN EVENT UNDERWAY THURSDAY
AS A FAIRLY FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP ALONG THE OFFSHORE
BOUNDARY IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG UPPER LOW BEARING DOWN FROM THE
WEST. BY THE TIME THE PRECIP WINDS DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT MOST AREAS
SHOULD NET TWO INCHES TO TWO AND A QUARTER. THIS IS FAR ENOUGH BELOW
FLOOD GUIDANCE THAT A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE BREEZY AND WELL MIXED KEEPING LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S EVEN AS TEMPS ALOFT GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FLURRIES ON
THE VERY TAIL END OF THE PRECIP. TOUGH TO RULE OUT A FLAKE OR TWO
REACHING THE GROUND DESPITE THE STRONG DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN DUE
TO 34 S-1 VORT BEARING DOWN ON THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEAKLY DUE TO THE NEXT SYSTEM ALOFT
RELOADING TO OUR WEST. MOST PLACES WILL STRUGGLE TO ABOUT 50 DESPITE
AMPLE SUNSHINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...INTERESTING START TO NEXT WEEK SHAPING UP
DURING THE PERIOD. FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR SAT WITH
ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE JUST WEST OF THE AREA. THINGS START TO GET
INTERESTING SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES
THE GULF COAST...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE
SAT NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT HELPS SPREAD
RAIN OVER THE AREA SUN MORNING. THE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS NORTHEAST
SUN AND SUN NIGHT. HAVE FAIR AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE PRESENCE OF
THE LOW BUT CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE CONCERNING THE LOWS
PROXIMITY TO THE COAST AND ITS FORWARD SPEED. STRENGTH AND TRACK
BOTH HAVE LARGE RAMIFICATIONS ON PRECIP TYPE SUN AND SUN NIGHT.
INHERITED FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH WPC...IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS GFS
SOLUTIONS AND THE 00Z ECMWF. THIS WOULD RESULT IN COLD RAIN WITH
SOME SNOW MIXED IN AS THE EVENT ENDS. THE LAST FEW GFS RUNS HOWEVER
HAVE TRENDED COLDER AND SLOWER...WITH MORE SNOW AND LESS RAIN. THIS
IS DOWN TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAVE A DEEPER SYSTEM AT 500
MB...WHICH MEANS MORE COLD AIR AND SLOWER MOVEMENT. SINCE THIS
SOLUTION IS NEW AND NOT REALLY IN LINE WITH GFS ENSEMBLES OR WPC IT
HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED FOR NOW...BUT BEARS WATCHING.
STACKED LOW EXITS NORTHEAST LATE SUN NIGHT BUT BROAD 5H TROUGH
LINGERS OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE IS SOME COLD
AIR BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM MON INTO TUE WHICH KEEPS TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. MUCH COLDER AIR FOLLOWS A STRONG COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA ON TUE. ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DROP
TEMPS WELL BELOW CLIMO. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY SHOWING 850
TEMPS RANGING FROM -10C TO -15C AS THE PERIOD ENDS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON WILL DETERIORATE
BACK TO MVFR/IFR THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BECOME WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG
COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
SLOWLY PUSHES OFFSHORE.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS...WITH 31
KTS ALREADY MEASURED AT KILM WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. VFR/MVFR PREVAILS
BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...LOW CIGS...AND
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT PROGGED TO
BE SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY OFFSHORE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ON THURSDAY.
BECOMING VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS WITH A SLIGHT VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 4 TO 7 FEET
NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER BASE ON LOCAL BUOYS AND SEAS ARE 4 FEET TO THE
SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET. THE LOCAL WAVE MODEL IS SHOWING THE
SEAS AT 20 MILES OFF THE COAST REMAINING AROUND 6 FEET OVERNIGHT
BEFORE DROPPING TO BELOW 5 FEET JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. SO WILL
CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER
THROUGH 6 AM AND AN EXERCISE CAUTION TO THE SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY... OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE RATHER LIGHT THROUGH
MOST OF THURSDAY`S VERY RAINY AFTERNOON. AS A FLAT WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDES BY FLOW WILL BACK AND INCREASE IN SPEED THURSDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE TO WHERE CAUTIONARY HEADLINES OR
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BY THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE LOW
ACCELERATES QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD AS FRIDAY PROGRESSES AND WINDS
WILL QUICKLY ABATE BELOW ANY THRESHOLDS THOUGH SCEC-WORTHY SEAS MAY
CONTINUE FOR A BIT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH WEST OF THE WATERS ON
SAT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY ENHANCED GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.
NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 15 KT SAT STARTS TO INCREASE SAT NIGHT AS
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH. WINDS STEADILY INCREASE SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN WITH SCA LIKELY AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR GALE
CONDITIONS LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT. ANY GALES WILL DEPEND ON THE
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT PASSES EAST OF THE WATERS. WINDS
WILL BACK FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST SUN AND SUN NIGHT WITH SPEEDS
DECREASING LATE SUN NIGHT AS THE LOW EXITS NORTHEAST. WEAK GRADIENT
BRIEFLY IN PLACE MON WITH WINDS BACKING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST
AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SPEEDS DROP UNDER 10 KT
EARLY MON MORNING BUT BY EVENING MOST AREAS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 15
KT...AND FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SEAS DECREASING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD START TO BUILD SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH
SUN...PEAKING JUST SHORT OF 10 FT SUN NIGHT. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE
FLOW LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON WILL BEGIN A DOWNWARD TREND IN SEAS
INTO MON EVENING BEFORE SEAS START BUILDING AS THE PERIOD ENDS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
118 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND PUSH INTO THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT AND THEN STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OFFSHORE
DURING THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT.
COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING THE RISK OF MORE PRECIPITATION. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM WEDNESDAY...WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH HORRY COUNTY AND THIS AREA IS PROGGED TO MOVE
QUICKLY NORTH OF THE AREA BY 20 UTC. THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION
IS FORECASTED BY THE 17 UTC HRRR TO ENTER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 23 UTC AND WORK ITS WAY TO THE COAST BY
MIDNIGHT. THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
CEASE AND SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND THE SLOW MOTION OF THE FRONT
THE AREA HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
FORECAST AREA WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST. ALSO...
THE AREA CONTINUES IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...THE SHEAR
IS STILL FORECASTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LINE OF CONVECTION
BUT THE LIMITED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL HAMPER ENHANCE
CONVECTION. EVEN WITH THIS THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
STRONG OR SEVERE WIND REPORT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFFSHORE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. AN ELONGATED MOISTURE FEED WILL EXTEND
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WELL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. THE
FRONT WILL BE WAITING ON A DECENT MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST FOR
THE FINAL PUSH OFFSHORE. OVERALL I INCREASED POPS THURSDAY INTO
THE EVENING HOURS VIA A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SCENARIO WITH THE LATEST
GUIDANCE. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD WANE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. FOR
FRIDAY EXPECT SLOW CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AND A COLD BLUSTERY
DAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE LOWER 50S. CLEAR AND
COLD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOST AREAS SEEING LOWS AT OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...INTERESTING AND ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SATURDAY WILL BE UNEVENTFUL ENOUGH WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING BASICALLY EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE ROCKIES LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS
ENSUING AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF AND MOVES ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. THE GFS IS MOST INTERESTING AND COLDER WITH SOME FROZEN
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE VIA OUR STATE OF THE ART TOP DOWN
METHODOLOGIES. THE LATEST ECMWF...WHICH IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION
VIA CONSISTENCY IS ADVERTISING A COLD RAIN. THE SYSTEM DEFINITELY
BEARS WATCHING. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL COULD SPELL TROUBLE BY
ITSELF IF THE ANTICIPATED QPF AMOUNTS COME CLOSE WITH THE CURRENT
EVENT. BEYOND THIS... SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST TROUGHING DEVELOPS
SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE COLD AIR. A POWERFUL VORT THAT WILL
BRING THE COLDEST OF AIR LATE COULD BRING A FEW SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A
SYSTEM FOR THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST REMAINS ON THE COLD SIDE WITH A VERY TEPID AND BRIEF
WARMUP MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON WILL DETERIORATE
BACK TO MVFR/IFR THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BECOME WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG
COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
SLOWLY PUSHES OFFSHORE.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS...WITH 31
KTS ALREADY MEASURED AT KILM WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. VFR/MVFR PREVAILS
BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...LOW CIGS...AND
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT PROGGED TO
BE SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY OFFSHORE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ON THURSDAY.
BECOMING VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM WEDNESDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AREA BLOWING
OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH SEAS RUNNING 3 TO 5 FEET NEAR SHORE
TO 5 TO 7 FEET AT 20 MILES OFF THE COAST. SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 3 TO 5 FEET RANGE. THUS THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AND EXERCISE CAUTION WILL CONTINUE.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THURSDAY AS A
FRONT TRUDGES SLOWLY TO THE EAST. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 KNOTS.
WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN
NORTHEAST AS THE DAY CONCLUDES. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT OFFSHORE WILL STRENGTHEN AND SPEEDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS.
BY EARLY FRIDAY SPEEDS INCREASE FURTHER FOR A FEW HOURS TO JUST
OVER 25 KNOTS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WINDS SLOWLY
DIMINISH ALL THE WHILE FROM THE NORTHEAST. SEAS WILL DECREASE FROM
SMALL CRAFT VALUES THURSDAY THEN INCREASE
CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY OUTER WATERS LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH THE INCREASING WIND FIELDS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...ONE DECENT DAY SATURDAY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS
FROM 10-15 KNOTS. SPEEDS PICK UP SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WINDS TO 20-25 KNOTS.
SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET SATURDAY INCREASING WITH THE WINDS SUNDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1225 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND PUSH INTO THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT AND THEN STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OFFSHORE
DURING THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT. COLD AND
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BRINGING THE RISK OF MORE PRECIPITATION. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WARM FRONT IS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
AND A STEADY SOUTH WIND INCREASED OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING TO NEAR 70 EXCEPT FOR THE BEACHES WHERE
THE COLD SHELF WATERS ARE KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
60S.
AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES IT WAY TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA THE
HRRR IS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING WELL AHEAD OF THE
LINE OF CONVECTION. THE HRRR SHOWS A LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING IN
TO THE FORECAST AREA THE EVENING AN SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST AS THE MARINE LAYER KNOCKS DOWN THE
CONVECTION.
AS THE FORCING OF THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AS IT REACHES THE COAST.
WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF MAXING OUT AT AROUND 1.8 AND
THE SLOW NATURE OF THE FRONT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE AREA CONTINUES UNDER A MARGINAL RISK WITH SHEAR INCREASING BY
THE MID AFTERNOON BUT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THE BEST SO
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS ISOLATED MAINLY FOR WINDS AND WITH A
LESSER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFFSHORE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. AN ELONGATED MOISTURE FEED WILL EXTEND
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WELL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. THE
FRONT WILL BE WAITING ON A DECENT MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST FOR
THE FINAL PUSH OFFSHORE. OVERALL I INCREASED POPS THURSDAY INTO
THE EVENING HOURS VIA A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SCENARIO WITH THE LATEST
GUIDANCE. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD WANE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. FOR
FRIDAY EXPECT SLOW CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AND A COLD BLUSTERY
DAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE LOWER 50S. CLEAR AND
COLD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOST AREAS SEEING LOWS AT OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...INTERESTING AND ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SATURDAY WILL BE UNEVENTFUL ENOUGH WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING BASICALLY EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE ROCKIES LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS
ENSUING AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF AND MOVES ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. THE GFS IS MOST INTERESTING AND COLDER WITH SOME FROZEN
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE VIA OUR STATE OF THE ART TOP DOWN
METHODOLOGIES. THE LATEST ECMWF...WHICH IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION
VIA CONSISTENCY IS ADVERTISING A COLD RAIN. THE SYSTEM DEFINITELY
BEARS WATCHING. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL COULD SPELL TROUBLE BY
ITSELF IF THE ANTICIPATED QPF AMOUNTS COME CLOSE WITH THE CURRENT
EVENT. BEYOND THIS... SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST TROUGHING DEVELOPS
SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE COLD AIR. A POWERFUL VORT THAT WILL
BRING THE COLDEST OF AIR LATE COULD BRING A FEW SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A
SYSTEM FOR THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST REMAINS ON THE COLD SIDE WITH A VERY TEPID AND BRIEF
WARMUP MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON WILL DETERIORATE
BACK TO MVFR/IFR THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BECOME WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG
COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
SLOWLY PUSHES OFFSHORE.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS...WITH 31
KTS ALREADY MEASURED AT KILM WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. VFR/MVFR PREVAILS
BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...LOW CIGS...AND
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT PROGGED TO
BE SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY OFFSHORE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ON THURSDAY.
BECOMING VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A FEW AREAS OF
PATCHY SEA FOG THIS MORNING. THE WINDS ARE INCREASING BUT BELOW
SMALL CRAFT AT THE BUOYS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THE WINDS AT
FRYING PAN ARE NOW IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS OF 6.9
FEET. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER. TO THE SOUTH A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL CONTINUE.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR A FEW
HOURS EARLY THURSDAY AS A FRONT TRUDGES SLOWLY TO THE EAST. SPEEDS
WILL BE 10-15 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN NORTHEAST AS THE DAY CONCLUDES. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE WILL STRENGTHEN AND SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS. BY EARLY FRIDAY SPEEDS INCREASE FURTHER FOR
A FEW HOURS TO JUST OVER 25 KNOTS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH ALL THE WHILE FROM THE NORTHEAST. SEAS WILL
DECREASE FROM SMALL CRAFT VALUES THURSDAY THEN INCREASE
CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY OUTER WATERS LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
THE INCREASING WIND FIELDS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...ONE DECENT DAY SATURDAY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS
FROM 10-15 KNOTS. SPEEDS PICK UP SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WINDS TO 20-25 KNOTS.
SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET SATURDAY INCREASING WITH THE WINDS SUNDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL