Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 02/02/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
825 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 817 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016
UPPER LOW EJECTING ONTO THE PLAINS THIS EVENING...WITH SURFACE AND
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR/JUST EAST OF PUEBLO. HAVE CONTEMPLATED
LOWERING WINTER STORM WARNINGS OVER INTERIOR VALLEYS AND PLAINS
SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER...THOUGH WITH HRRR CONTINUING TO
INSIST WRAP-AROUND SNOW BUILDING SOUTH ALONG I25 TO AT LEAST
WALSENBURG OVERNIGHT...WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT WARNING
CONFIGURATION FOR NOW. SNOW BANDS PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR. NORTH WINDS HAVE
BEGUN TO INCREASE MANY AREAS...AND EXPECT BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW
TO BECOME A PROBLEM ALONG AND EAST OF I25 OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016
...MORE SNOW ON THE WAY...PARTICULARLY FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA...
UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CO WITH
SFC LOW TAKING SHAPE DOWN AROUND KTAD. DRY SLOT AROUND THE SOUTHERN
SLIDE OF THE SYSTEM HAS WRAPPED NORTHWARD INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR...AND DEFORMATION BAND SNOW HAS STARTED
TO PUSH TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO NE CO. STILL SEEING
A FAIRLY DECENT FETCH OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND WEB CAMS HAVE SHOWN
SOME BOUTS OF HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES...BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN A
LITTLE TOO WARM FOR MUCH ACCUMULATION JUST YET. MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING AND DEEPENING THE UPPER LOW AS IT
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CO INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE
BY 06Z. AS THIS OCCURS...FORECAST AREA WILL COME UNDER THE COLDER
WRAP AROUND PORTION OF THE STORM WITH SNOW PIVOTING DOWN THE WEST
SIDE...BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TONIGHT. SO ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS APPEAR TO BE DONE WITH THIS
STORM...THERE IS STILL A SECOND WAVE TO GO...AND LATEST HRRR SHOWS
SNOW SPREADING BACK SOUTHWARD INTO THE KPUB AREA AND INTO LAS ANIMAS
AND BACA COUNTIES LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH THIS SECOND WAVE AND THAT IS WHEN THE
BLOWING SNOW WILL BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN. WINDS IN LATEST MODEL
SUITES APPEAR TO STAY JUST BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR A BLIZZARD
WARNING...BUT IT COULD COME CLOSE IN KIOWA COUNTY WHERE SOME THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS PROGGED TO OCCUR. WINDS LOOK A LITTLE TOO LIGHT IN
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY AT THIS POINT. BUT THIS WILL BEAR CLOSE
WATCHING THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE WRAP AROUND WILL BE THE MOST CHALLENGING PART
OF THIS FORECAST. LATEST HRRR DOES PULL H7 WINDS AROUND FROM THE NE
THIS EVENING...SUGGESTING ANOTHER ROUND OF UPSLOPE FOR THE WET
MOUNTAINS/WET MTN VALLEY/POSSIBLY NORTHERN SANGRES....BUT IT DOESN`T
APPEAR TO SPREAD FAR ENOUGH WEST TO AFFECT MORE THAN JUST THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. GIVEN THE VALLEY CENTER AND
WESTERN PORTIONS MAY MISS OUT ON THE SECOND WAVE OF THE STORM...HAVE
OPTED TO DOWNGRADE THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. WILL LEAVE ALL OTHER HIGHLIGHTS UNCHANGED. ANOTHER AREA
THAT MAY GET SLIGHTED FROM THIS EVENT WILL BE THE SOUTHERN SANGRES
AND THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR FROM WALSENBURG TO KTAD...BUT ITS
STILL TOO SOON TO SAY AT THIS POINT. THIS AREA MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 06Z BEFORE THEY GET THEIR NEXT CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATIONS. STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE SHOULD BEGIN TO SHADOW
SOUTHERN EL PASO AND PUEBLO COUNTIES AFTER 3 AM...WITH A DOWNWARD
TREND IN THE SNOWFALL FOR THESE AREAS TOWARDS EARLY MORNING.
WILL ALSO MAINTAIN THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS ALONG THE
CONTDVD...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE GREATEST SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN BETTER PROXIMITY TO THE DEFORMATION BAND. THERE
ARE STILL SOME INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS THOUGH SO WILL HANG ONTO THE HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOW. SUSPECT
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS MAY BE ABLE TO BE PARED OUT OF THE WARNINGS
TOWARDS 12Z TUES.
SYSTEM PULLS EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND SHOULD SEE SNOW TAPER
OFF ACROSS EASTERN AREAS IN THE MORNING...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT AT THIS
POINT...WITH GENERALLY ANOTHER 1 TO 4 IN THE AFTERNOON. -KT
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION AS SECONDARY ENERGY DIGS
ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON THE BACKSIDE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
WITH THAT SAID...SHOULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
PEAKS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING FLOW ALOFT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD TO REMAIN BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY SNOW COVERED AREAS OF THE PLAINS.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATING SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDING
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY AS MORE PACIFIC ENERGY DIGS ACROSS
THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE THIS
ENERGY MOVES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING
A PROGRESSIVE WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AS
ANOTHER GROUP OF MODELS ARE DIGGING THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. AT ANY RATE...SHOULD SEE INCREASING CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
FOR AREAS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
SATURDAY-MONDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIGGING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF A
DEVELOPING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS COULD BRING A
FEW MORE SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY...WITH DEEP
MERIDIONAL FLOW PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 349 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KCOS AND KPUB TERMINALS THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CIGS LIFTING AND SNOW TAPERING
BACK AFTER 09Z. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT KCOS AND
KPUB AROUND 02-03Z WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE. THESE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...EVEN AS SNOW
DIMINISHES AFTER 09Z AND COULD KEEP SOME RESTRICTIONS TO VIS IN
BLSN...ESPECIALLY AT KCOS. BY TUESDAY MORNING...EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS...THOUGH NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. KALS WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH -SHSN.
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR QUICKLY OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058>068-
072>089-093>098.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ069>071-
099.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
706 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016
AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE
WINTER STORM WILL BRING PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOWFALL TO MUCH OF WEST-
CENTRAL CO FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS EVENING. HAVE UPDATED THE
GRIDS AND FORECASTS FOR CATEGORICAL SNOWFALL UNTIL ABOUT 9 PM WHEN
THE HRRR AND HIRES SHOW IT MOVING EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016
OUR COMPLICATED STORM SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO EVOLVE. IT IS IN
THE PROCESS TO TRANSITIONING TO ITS NEXT PHASE AS THIS FORECAST
GOES TO PRESS. THE 500MB LOW PASSED OVER THE 4-CORNERS AROUND
MIDDAY TODAY AND WILL SHORTLY MOVE EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
AS A RESULT THE FLOW HAS BEEN TRANSITIONING FROM A SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION TO WEST-NORTH NEAR THE SURFACE...AND EASTERLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE. BY LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT A DEEP NORTH FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. AS A RESULT...THE BETTER SNOWFALL WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN
SLOPES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SNOWFALL HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE VALLEYS OF WESTERN UT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND OVER THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL VALLEYS OF WESTERN CO.
WHILE SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN MANY OF THESE AREAS OFF AND ON
THROUGH THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT...LITTLE TO NO
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED. SO HAVE DROPPED THE
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES FOR THESE ZONES. ON THE FLIP SIDE...THE
NORTHWEST CO VALLEYS HAVE YET TO SEE THEIR BEST SNOWFALL. EXPECT
THAT THESE ZONES WILL SEE BETTER ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MORE
FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS THAT HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS IN CO ZONES 1 AND 2 WILL OCCUR NORTH OF THE
TAVAPUTS PLATEAU...SOUTH OF RANGELY AND IN THE PICEANCE
BASIN...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ZONE 5 IN THE YAMPA AND
OAK CREEK AREA. THEREFORE EXTENDED THESE ADVISORIES.
ALL PRESENT HIGHLIGHTS ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON TUE...AND THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE FOR NOW IN THE DRIER NORTH FLOW. HOWEVER ANOTHER
COLD IMPULSE WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY...WITH A
-32C/500MB COLD CORE OVER NORTHWEST CO IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS
INDICATE THERE WILL BE AN UPTICK IN SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.
FOR NOW THE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS DO NOT SEEM TO WARRANT
EXTENDING ANY HIGHLIGHTS. BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
LINGERING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE...AND A MUCH HIGHER SNOW RATIO
MAY BE A CONCERN. COLD ADVECTION IN THE NORTH FLOW WILL RESULT IN
COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE.
CONDITIONS QUICKLY WIND DOWN TUE EVENING AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
ERODE. BY LATE TUE NIGHT ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED
TO SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS FROM NEAR ASPEN AND NORTHWARD.
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT DUE LESS CLOUDS
AND THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS APPEARS A DOMINANT RIDGE WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED ALONG THE LEFT COAST OF NOAM. THERE WILL STILL
BE PACIFIC WAVES PLOWING INTO THIS FEATURE BUT NOT BE ALLOWED TO
FORM A LARGER SYSTEM IN THE WEST. SO WE ARE LOOKING AT SEVERAL
PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE
PLAINS BUT FOR NOW NOTHING LOOKS OVERLY SIGNIFICANT. BELOW TO MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN PLACE UNDER THIS REGIME AS
WELL. THE FIRST WAVE...MORE APPARENT IN THE 1.5 PVU FIELD...WILL
ROTATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND JUST BRUSH OUR EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WANE AS WELL AS
INSTABILITY SO REALLY ONLY EXPECTED SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS TO THE HIGH PASSES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL SEE TRANSITORY RIDGING
FOLLOWED BY THE FIRST PASSING TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THIS STORM HAS BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING THE PAST FEW
RUNS AND BOTH THE EURO AND GFS ARE CLOSING A LOW OFF NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE CARRYING IN SOME
PACIFIC MOISTURE BUT ATTM IT APPEARS THE UPSTREAM MOUNTAIN RANGES
WILL GET THE MOST BENEFIT BEFORE IT GETS HERE. RIDGING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IS THEN FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROUGH...THIS ONE
FARTHER NORTH...GOING INTO SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH APPEARS TO BRING
MORE OF A COLD SHOT THEN PRECIPITATION. BEYOND THIS A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH WILL MEAN GENERALLY DRY
AND COLD WEATHER PERSISTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 5 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016
SCT TO WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL CONTINUE EAST OF A LINE FROM KVEL SE
TO KDRO PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY
AT KASE KEGE KTEX. SCT -SHSN WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AT KVEL KCNY
KDRO. 09Z-16Z AREAS OF VALLEY FOG MAY MAY IMPACT AVIATION
OPERATIONS AS WELL.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TUESDAY FOR COZ001-002-
004-005.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TUESDAY FOR COZ003-007>014-
017>020-023.
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ023-025.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ028.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CC
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...TGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1047 AM MST SUN JAN 31 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 610 AM MST SUN JAN 31 2016
AMENDED THE START TIMES FOR THE PLAINS FOR THE WINTER STORM
WATCHES. NOTE THAT I MADE AN ERROR ON THE BEGINNING TIME OF THE
WSW FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND CORRECTED IT (START TIME WAS TOO
LATE). /HODANISH
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM MST SUN JAN 31 2016
...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM MOVES INTO THE REGION...
CURRENTLY...
BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH ~700 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WAS LOCATED
CANON CITY EASTWARD INTO KIOWA COUNTY. N OF THIS BOUNDARY LIGHT SNOW
WAS NOTED ON THE PLAINS. A LARGE AREA OF WIDESPREAD SNOW WAS NOTED
OVER THE WESTERN SLOPE AND WAS IMPINGING ON THE CONTDVD. ACROSS THE
REST OF THE PLAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY IT WAS MAINLY CLOUDY. THE SFC
COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST S OF THE CO/NM BORDER.
PRIMARY TROUGH WHICH WILL BRING A GOOD PART OF THE REGION
SIGNIFICANT SNOW WAS STILL OFFSHORE OF THE CALIF COAST.
TODAY...
SNOW WHICH IS OCCURRING NOW IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND MOVE EAST
WITHING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SNOW MAY NEVER
ACTUALLY COME TO AN END WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
MORNING ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY.
MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION AND SPEED OF
BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH EXTENDS EAST-WEST ACROSS THE GENERAL SE COLO
REGION. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EITHER THE LOCATION
AND SPEED/DEVELOPMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY LATER TODAY. HRRR DEVELOPS
BOUNDARY OVER CO/NM BORDER AND MOVES IT NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
A SOLID BAND OF SNOW IS NOTED WITH THE HRRR WITH THE OVERRUNNING OF
THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES NORTH. GFS ON THE OTHER HAND TIGHTENS UP
THE 700 MB GRADIENT ALONG THE US-50 BORDER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
RACES IT NORTH. NOT MUCH SNOW IS NOTED OVER THE PLAINS TODAY WITH
THE GFS. LATEST NAM IS MORE SIMILAR IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND HRRR
AND HAS MOST OF THE SNOW/SOME MIXED PRECIP TODAY GENERALLY ALONG AND
N OF HIGHWAY 50. EC GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR TO THE NAM. BASED ON
THIS...I DO NOT BELIEVE WE WILL ALL THAT MUCH SNOW TODAY GENERALLY
SOUTH HIGHWAY 50. FOR NOW I DREW UP POP GRIDS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
ON THE PLAINS GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE CONTDVD...SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY...AND BE QUITE HEAVY ACROSS THE SW MTNS.
TONIGHT...
HEAVY SNOW WILL FALL IN ALL OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH VERY HEAVY SNOW
FALLING IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. IT IS POSSIBLE UP TO 18 INCHES
OF SNOW WILL FALL IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.
FOR THE PLAINS...THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE NORTH OF THE
PALMER DIVIDE BY LATER THIS EVENING. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW IS
LIKELY FOR THE MOST OF THE PLAINS TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
WILL BE AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM PUEBLO TO EADS...WHERE
1 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
OCCUR ACROSS N EL PASO COUNTY WHERE UP TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
***
ALL OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WINTER STORM
WARNINGS. I PLAN TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATIONS TO THE THE WINTER
STORM WATCHES FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR (6 AM-
ISH)
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM MST SUN JAN 31 2016
...MAJOR WINTER STORM STILL ON TRACK...
MODELS FALL INTO TWO CAMPS WITH REGARDS TO THE STORM TRACK AND
HAVE GONE WITH THE GREATER CONSENSUS OF THE NAM...NAM 4KM...ECMWF
AND NMM. THESE SOLUTIONS BRING THE STORM SYSTEM OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN AND ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE OUTLIERS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE THE GFS AND ARW SOLUTIONS
WHICH HAVE SHIFTED NORTH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OPERATIONAL
SOLUTIONS AND TRENDS AS SLIGHT SHIFTS IN THE STORM TRACK COULD
MEAN LARGE DIFFERENCES IN WHERE AND HOW MUCH SNOW MAY FALL OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...A STRONG AND DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO
ON MONDAY BEFORE EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO IOWA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS STORM HAS ALL THE INGREDIENTS...ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WITH WARM AIR OVER RUNNING IN
THE MID LEVELS...UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE
PROFILES...TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL. EXPECT SNOW TO BE
ONGOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY MORNING...SPREAD QUICKLY
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. BASED ON THE
CONSENSUS OF THE ECMWF...NAM...NAM 4KM AND NMM SOLUTIONS...THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL LOOKS TO FALL OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...THE
PALMER DIVIDE...SOUTH INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE THE WORST CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE HEAVY SNOW WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS...GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH WILL PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AND MAKING ROADWAYS IMPASSABLE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT SNOW
INTENSITY TO BEGIN DISSIPATING TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...WITH LIGHT SNOW IN
NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS FAR AS SNOWFALL
TOTALS...MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE MEASURING IN FEET...WHILE
MOST OF THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 COULD SEE 6 TO 12 INCHES...AND THE PALMER DIVIDE SEEING
IN EXCESS OF A FOOT.
AS MENTIONED...SLIGHT DEVIATIONS IN THE STORM TRACK COULD HAVE
MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. IF
THE GFS AND ARW SOLUTIONS AND THEIR FURTHER NORTH TRACK COMES TO
BEING...LESS SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE PLAINS...WITH MOST NORTH OF
OUR FORECAST AREAS...AND PERHAPS NO SNOW FOR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
AREA.
SEE THE WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT SNOWFALL
TOTALS AND TIMING FOR THIS WINTER STORM.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COLD ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH TEENS AND 20S FOR HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
START TO WARM...WITH 30S FOR HIGHS OVER THE PLAINS.
FRIDAY...AN UPPER STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL SEND A
QUICK SHOT OF SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY...WITH MOST PASSING TO
THE NORTH. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST SUN JAN 31 2016
ROUNDS OF SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE BECOMING STEADY AND MORE WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IFR TO LIFR AT KCOS TODAY WITH PERSISTENT
SOUTH WINDS UPSLOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE PALMER
DIVIDE. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW WILL SPREAD IN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH COULD DROP 2-3 INCHES AT THE
TERMINAL. THERE MAY BE A LULL LATE TONIGHT THOUGH AT LEAST SOME
PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOWFALL MAY CONTINUE...THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVIER SNOW BECOMING WIND DRIVEN WILL SPREAD IN ON MONDAY. THE
HEAVIEST WILL FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS MAY BRIEFLY COME UP
TO IFR DURING THE MORNING ON MON AT KCOS BEFORE DROPPING BACK TO
LIFR IN SN BLSN. SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THE
KCOS AIRPORT WITH ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN 6 INCHES EXPECTED BY
STORMS END TUES.
KPUB WILL SEE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY BEFORE IFR SPREADS IN
THIS EVENING WITH -SHSN. A LULL IS EXPECTED AFTER 07Z...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LESSER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO IS EXPECTED
AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN ANOTHER ROUND IS EXPECTED
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER
THAN 6 INCHES AT THE TERMINAL BY STORMS END TUESDAY MORNING. THERE
WILL BE RESTRICTIONS TO VIS IN BLOWING SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.
KALS WILL SEE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SOME -SHSN
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BRIEFLY DROPPING VIS TO MVFR TO IFR.
MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS/VIS IN SNOW WILL SPREAD IN MONDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
COZ089-093>099.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
COZ059-061>065-067-069>071-076>078-083-085>088.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR COZ072>075-079>082-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-066-
068.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ064.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
613 AM MST SUN JAN 31 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 610 AM MST SUN JAN 31 2016
AMENDED THE START TIMES FOR THE PLAINS FOR THE WINTER STORM
WATCHES. NOTE THAT I MADE AN ERROR ON THE BEGINNING TIME OF THE
WSW FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND CORRECTED IT (START TIME WAS TOO
LATE). /HODANISH
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM MST SUN JAN 31 2016
...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM MOVES INTO THE REGION...
CURRENTLY...
BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH ~700 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WAS LOCATED
CANON CITY EASTWARD INTO KIOWA COUNTY. N OF THIS BOUNDARY LIGHT SNOW
WAS NOTED ON THE PLAINS. A LARGE AREA OF WIDESPREAD SNOW WAS NOTED
OVER THE WESTERN SLOPE AND WAS IMPINGING ON THE CONTDVD. ACROSS THE
REST OF THE PLAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY IT WAS MAINLY CLOUDY. THE SFC
COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST S OF THE CO/NM BORDER.
PRIMARY TROUGH WHICH WILL BRING A GOOD PART OF THE REGION
SIGNIFICANT SNOW WAS STILL OFFSHORE OF THE CALIF COAST.
TODAY...
SNOW WHICH IS OCCURRING NOW IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND MOVE EAST
WITHING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SNOW MAY NEVER
ACTUALLY COME TO AN END WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
MORNING ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY.
MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION AND SPEED OF
BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH EXTENDS EAST-WEST ACROSS THE GENERAL SE COLO
REGION. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EITHER THE LOCATION
AND SPEED/DEVELOPMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY LATER TODAY. HRRR DEVELOPS
BOUNDARY OVER CO/NM BORDER AND MOVES IT NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
A SOLID BAND OF SNOW IS NOTED WITH THE HRRR WITH THE OVERRUNNING OF
THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES NORTH. GFS ON THE OTHER HAND TIGHTENS UP
THE 700 MB GRADIENT ALONG THE US-50 BORDER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
RACES IT NORTH. NOT MUCH SNOW IS NOTED OVER THE PLAINS TODAY WITH
THE GFS. LATEST NAM IS MORE SIMILAR IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND HRRR
AND HAS MOST OF THE SNOW/SOME MIXED PRECIP TODAY GENERALLY ALONG AND
N OF HIGHWAY 50. EC GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR TO THE NAM. BASED ON
THIS...I DO NOT BELIEVE WE WILL ALL THAT MUCH SNOW TODAY GENERALLY
SOUTH HIGHWAY 50. FOR NOW I DREW UP POP GRIDS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
ON THE PLAINS GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE CONTDVD...SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY...AND BE QUITE HEAVY ACROSS THE SW MTNS.
TONIGHT...
HEAVY SNOW WILL FALL IN ALL OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH VERY HEAVY SNOW
FALLING IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. IT IS POSSIBLE UP TO 18 INCHES
OF SNOW WILL FALL IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.
FOR THE PLAINS...THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE NORTH OF THE
PALMER DIVIDE BY LATER THIS EVENING. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW IS
LIKELY FOR THE MOST OF THE PLAINS TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
WILL BE AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM PUEBLO TO EADS...WHERE
1 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
OCCUR ACROSS N EL PASO COUNTY WHERE UP TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
***
ALL OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WINTER STORM
WARNINGS. I PLAN TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATIONS TO THE THE WINTER
STORM WATCHES FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR (6 AM-
ISH)
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM MST SUN JAN 31 2016
...MAJOR WINTER STORM STILL ON TRACK...
MODELS FALL INTO TWO CAMPS WITH REGARDS TO THE STORM TRACK AND
HAVE GONE WITH THE GREATER CONSENSUS OF THE NAM...NAM 4KM...ECMWF
AND NMM. THESE SOLUTIONS BRING THE STORM SYSTEM OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN AND ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE OUTLIERS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE THE GFS AND ARW SOLUTIONS
WHICH HAVE SHIFTED NORTH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OPERATIONAL
SOLUTIONS AND TRENDS AS SLIGHT SHIFTS IN THE STORM TRACK COULD
MEAN LARGE DIFFERENCES IN WHERE AND HOW MUCH SNOW MAY FALL OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...A STRONG AND DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO
ON MONDAY BEFORE EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO IOWA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS STORM HAS ALL THE INGREDIENTS...ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WITH WARM AIR OVER RUNNING IN
THE MID LEVELS...UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE
PROFILES...TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL. EXPECT SNOW TO BE
ONGOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY MORNING...SPREAD QUICKLY
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. BASED ON THE
CONSENSUS OF THE ECMWF...NAM...NAM 4KM AND NMM SOLUTIONS...THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL LOOKS TO FALL OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...THE
PALMER DIVIDE...SOUTH INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE THE WORST CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE HEAVY SNOW WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS...GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH WILL PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AND MAKING ROADWAYS IMPASSABLE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT SNOW
INTENSITY TO BEGIN DISSIPATING TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...WITH LIGHT SNOW IN
NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS FAR AS SNOWFALL
TOTALS...MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE MEASURING IN FEET...WHILE
MOST OF THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 COULD SEE 6 TO 12 INCHES...AND THE PALMER DIVIDE SEEING
IN EXCESS OF A FOOT.
AS MENTIONED...SLIGHT DEVIATIONS IN THE STORM TRACK COULD HAVE
MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. IF
THE GFS AND ARW SOLUTIONS AND THEIR FURTHER NORTH TRACK COMES TO
BEING...LESS SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE PLAINS...WITH MOST NORTH OF
OUR FORECAST AREAS...AND PERHAPS NO SNOW FOR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
AREA.
SEE THE WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT SNOWFALL
TOTALS AND TIMING FOR THIS WINTER STORM.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COLD ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH TEENS AND 20S FOR HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
START TO WARM...WITH 30S FOR HIGHS OVER THE PLAINS.
FRIDAY...AN UPPER STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL SEND A
QUICK SHOT OF SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY...WITH MOST PASSING TO
THE NORTH. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 359 AM MST SUN JAN 31 2016
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING AT KCOS AND KPUB AND
SHOULD END BETWEEN 13 UTC AND 14 UTC. THE SNOW WILL RE-DEVELOP AT
THESE TWO SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BECOME STEADY THIS
EVENING. THE SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE TONIGHT AT KCOS AND KPUB. IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
KALS...PERIODS OF SNOW WILL BE LIKELY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AT
KALS WITH MVFR CIGS.
NOTE...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MOST OF TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT AT ALL 3 TAF SITES.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
COZ089-093>099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ059.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
COZ059-061>065-067-069>071-076>078.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR COZ072>075-079>082-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-066-
068.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
COZ083-085>088.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ064.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
520 AM MST SUN JAN 31 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM MST SUN JAN 31 2016
...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM MOVES INTO THE REGION...
CURRENTLY...
BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH ~700 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WAS LOCATED
CANON CITY EASTWARD INTO KIOWA COUNTY. N OF THIS BOUNDARY LIGHT SNOW
WAS NOTED ON THE PLAINS. A LARGE AREA OF WIDESPREAD SNOW WAS NOTED
OVER THE WESTERN SLOPE AND WAS IMPINGING ON THE CONTDVD. ACROSS THE
REST OF THE PLAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY IT WAS MAINLY CLOUDY. THE SFC
COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST S OF THE CO/NM BORDER.
PRIMARY TROUGH WHICH WILL BRING A GOOD PART OF THE REGION
SIGNIFICANT SNOW WAS STILL OFFSHORE OF THE CALIF COAST.
TODAY...
SNOW WHICH IS OCCURRING NOW IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND MOVE EAST
WITHING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SNOW MAY NEVER
ACTUALLY COME TO AN END WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
MORNING ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY.
MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION AND SPEED OF
BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH EXTENDS EAST-WEST ACROSS THE GENERAL SE COLO
REGION. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EITHER THE LOCATION
AND SPEED/DEVELOPMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY LATER TODAY. HRRR DEVELOPS
BOUNDARY OVER CO/NM BORDER AND MOVES IT NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
A SOLID BAND OF SNOW IS NOTED WITH THE HRRR WITH THE OVERRUNNING OF
THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES NORTH. GFS ON THE OTHER HAND TIGHTENS UP
THE 700 MB GRADIENT ALONG THE US-50 BORDER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
RACES IT NORTH. NOT MUCH SNOW IS NOTED OVER THE PLAINS TODAY WITH
THE GFS. LATEST NAM IS MORE SIMILAR IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND HRRR
AND HAS MOST OF THE SNOW/SOME MIXED PRECIP TODAY GENERALLY ALONG AND
N OF HIGHWAY 50. EC GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR TO THE NAM. BASED ON
THIS...I DO NOT BELIEVE WE WILL ALL THAT MUCH SNOW TODAY GENERALLY
SOUTH HIGHWAY 50. FOR NOW I DREW UP POP GRIDS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
ON THE PLAINS GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE CONTDVD...SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY...AND BE QUITE HEAVY ACROSS THE SW MTNS.
TONIGHT...
HEAVY SNOW WILL FALL IN ALL OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH VERY HEAVY SNOW
FALLING IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. IT IS POSSIBLE UP TO 18 INCHES
OF SNOW WILL FALL IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.
FOR THE PLAINS...THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE NORTH OF THE
PALMER DIVIDE BY LATER THIS EVENING. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW IS
LIKELY FOR THE MOST OF THE PLAINS TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
WILL BE AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM PUEBLO TO EADS...WHERE
1 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
OCCUR ACROSS N EL PASO COUNTY WHERE UP TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
***
ALL OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WINTER STORM
WARNINGS. I PLAN TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATIONS TO THE THE WINTER
STORM WATCHES FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR (6 AM-
ISH)
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM MST SUN JAN 31 2016
...MAJOR WINTER STORM STILL ON TRACK...
MODELS FALL INTO TWO CAMPS WITH REGARDS TO THE STORM TRACK AND
HAVE GONE WITH THE GREATER CONSENSUS OF THE NAM...NAM 4KM...ECMWF
AND NMM. THESE SOLUTIONS BRING THE STORM SYSTEM OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN AND ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE OUTLIERS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE THE GFS AND ARW SOLUTIONS
WHICH HAVE SHIFTED NORTH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OPERATIONAL
SOLUTIONS AND TRENDS AS SLIGHT SHIFTS IN THE STORM TRACK COULD
MEAN LARGE DIFFERENCES IN WHERE AND HOW MUCH SNOW MAY FALL OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...A STRONG AND DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO
ON MONDAY BEFORE EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO IOWA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS STORM HAS ALL THE INGREDIENTS...ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WITH WARM AIR OVER RUNNING IN
THE MID LEVELS...UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE
PROFILES...TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL. EXPECT SNOW TO BE
ONGOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY MORNING...SPREAD QUICKLY
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. BASED ON THE
CONSENSUS OF THE ECMWF...NAM...NAM 4KM AND NMM SOLUTIONS...THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL LOOKS TO FALL OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...THE
PALMER DIVIDE...SOUTH INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE THE WORST CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE HEAVY SNOW WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS...GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH WILL PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AND MAKING ROADWAYS IMPASSABLE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT SNOW
INTENSITY TO BEGIN DISSIPATING TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...WITH LIGHT SNOW IN
NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS FAR AS SNOWFALL
TOTALS...MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE MEASURING IN FEET...WHILE
MOST OF THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 COULD SEE 6 TO 12 INCHES...AND THE PALMER DIVIDE SEEING
IN EXCESS OF A FOOT.
AS MENTIONED...SLIGHT DEVIATIONS IN THE STORM TRACK COULD HAVE
MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. IF
THE GFS AND ARW SOLUTIONS AND THEIR FURTHER NORTH TRACK COMES TO
BEING...LESS SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE PLAINS...WITH MOST NORTH OF
OUR FORECAST AREAS...AND PERHAPS NO SNOW FOR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
AREA.
SEE THE WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT SNOWFALL
TOTALS AND TIMING FOR THIS WINTER STORM.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COLD ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH TEENS AND 20S FOR HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
START TO WARM...WITH 30S FOR HIGHS OVER THE PLAINS.
FRIDAY...AN UPPER STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL SEND A
QUICK SHOT OF SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY...WITH MOST PASSING TO
THE NORTH. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 359 AM MST SUN JAN 31 2016
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING AT KCOS AND KPUB AND
SHOULD END BETWEEN 13 UTC AND 14 UTC. THE SNOW WILL RE-DEVELOP AT
THESE TWO SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BECOME STEADY THIS
EVENING. THE SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE TONIGHT AT KCOS AND KPUB. IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
KALS...PERIODS OF SNOW WILL BE LIKELY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AT
KALS WITH MVFR CIGS.
NOTE...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MOST OF TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT AT ALL 3 TAF SITES.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR COZ059-061>065-067-069>071-076>078-083-085>089-093>099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ059.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR COZ066-072>075-079>082-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-068.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ064-
066.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
900 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY. AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW...AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL.
AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHICH
MAY BEGIN AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF A WINTRY MIX.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 900 AM EST...MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS CLOUDY.
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN SOME OF THE SHELTERED
HIGHLAND VALLEYS TO THE UPPER 30S IN PARTS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AN VARIABLE. RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ECHOES ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA...MOST
OF WHICH IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER...KSLK REPORTED SNOW
LAST HOUR SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANGE OF PRECIPITATION OVER
NORTHERN AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD US FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
LEFT AFTERNOON FORECAST AS IS WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
AREAS AS BEST FORCING LOOKS TO STAY NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
TO EXPAND INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY RAIN...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE MILD
AS AREA IS IN WARM SECTOR OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE STORM/S COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. AHEAD AND ALONG OF THIS SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SOME RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS
WILL BE FAIRLY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE AND LIGHT IN INTENSITY...AND
THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AND
CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING. WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/PRECIP...TEMPS WILL BE HELD UP
TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE...WITH LOWS THIS
EVENING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. MOST SPOTS WILL SEE TEMPS
HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE TONIGHT. HIGHS ON MONDAY LOOK TO BE IN
THE 40S TO NEAR 50 ON MON MORNING...AND START TO FALL ON MON AFTN
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...ANY PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY END WITH CAA AND
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 20S FOR MON NIGHT. IT SHOULD BE DRY WITH
CLEARING SKIES FOR MON NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. WITH
COLDER TEMPS ALOFT...IT WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS BACK
IN THE 30S...AND SOME UPPER 20S OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. IN
ADDITION...SKIES LOOK TO BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
POTENT STORM IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT THEN TRACK
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
WARM FRONT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
TUESDAY. AS A RETREATING SURFACE HIGH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...THE
THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH WET BULB PROCESS STILL
SUGGESTS A WINTRY MIXTURE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CURRENT HWO LOOKS GOOD
WITH NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. IN FACT...VALLEY
LOCATIONS WILL BE APPROACHING OR JUST EXCEEDING THE 50F DEGREE MARK.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL COME WITH A RATHER SOGGY DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION. LATEST GEFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PWAT ANOMALIES OF 3-4
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL SO MODERATE TO A PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL JET MAGNITUDES OF 60-
70KTS ARE PROGGED AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT SO IF THESE SHOWERS
ARE ABLE TO TAP INTO THIS HIGHER MOMENTUM WINDS...AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL WIND HEADLINES.
AT THIS TIME...SHOWALTERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER POSITIVE TO
LIMIT THUNDER POTENTIAL.
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING AS DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL CUT DOWN THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
RATHER QUICKLY AS SURFACE PRESSURES SLOWLY INCREASE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. PROGRESSIVE COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AS H850 TEMPS DROP
BACK THROUGH THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN AT OR
BELOW -10C INTO FRIDAY. SOME LAKE ONTARIO RESPONSE IS EXPECTED YET
WITH BUILDING SURFACE ANTICYCLONE...BANDS SHOULD NOT PENETRATE TOO
FAR INLAND.
RIDGE AT ALL LEVELS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH A PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER. AS THIS RIDGE SLIDES
EAST DURING SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF
WARM ADVECTION AS DEEP TROUGH UPSTREAM AMPLIFIES FURTHER. BEYOND
THE LONG TERM...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST SEVERAL SOLUTIONS AS WE
MONITOR TRENDS FOR PERHAPS ANOTHER COASTAL EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN. PER THE ENHANCED SATELLITE
IMAGERY...LOWER CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
PORTIONS OF THE KEYSTONE STATE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE WARM
FRONT THAT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY.
PER THE LATEST HRRR REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
FOR A SHOWER TO IMPACT KGFL AS WE WILL PLACE A VCSH DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL DURING TODAY AS DEEPER MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTS NORTHWARD. LATER IN THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF DEWPOINTS INCREASING SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT MIST/BR TO DEVELOP. FURTHERMORE...THIS TOO WARRANTS THE
INCLUSION OF SLIGHT DECREASE IN AVIATION FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
AFTER A CLOSER REVIEW OF THE 06Z GUIDANCE...WE INCLUDED LLWS FOR
TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION
BETWEEN LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW. QPF LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...GENERALLY BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR LESS. SOME ISOLATED LOCAL AMOUNTS OF AROUND A QUARTER
OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
AFTER A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP
INITIALLY...MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. QPF
AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK TO BE A HALF INCH TO AN INCH...WITH
MUCH OF THIS FALLING WITHIN A FEW HOUR PERIOD. THIS
RAINFALL...ALONG WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ALLOWING FOR SOME SNOW AND
ICE TO MELT OUT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...WILL ALLOW FOR SHARP RISES
ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALTHOUGH MAIN STEM RIVERS SHOULD REMAIN
WITHIN THEIR BANKS...LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER AND/OR MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS COULD OCCUR...ESP IN AREAS
WHERE THE GROUND REMAINS FROZEN.
BEHIND THIS STORM SYSTEM...PRECIP WILL END AND TEMPS WILL TURN
COLDER...ALLOWING THE WATER TO RECEDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
628 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS...MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL
BE PLACE OVER THE REGION TODAY. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. AFTER A BRIEF COOL
DOWN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL RETURN A CHANCE OF RAIN
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY BEGIN AS A BRIEF PERIOD
OF A WINTRY MIX IN SOME AREAS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 628 AM EST...A FAST NORTHERN STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE REGION TODAY. WITH FLAT W-SW FLOW IN
PLACE ALOFT...CLOUD COVER IS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS
UPSTREAM /MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL/ MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA...SKY
COVER WILL GENERALLY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS SOME RETURNS OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL NY
EARLY THIS MORNING THANKS TO WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IN
PLACE...BUT DRY LOW LEVELS IS PREVENTING ANY OF THIS PRECIP FROM
REACHING THE SURFACE.
THE ONGOING WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW 850 HPA TEMPS TO RISE
TO 3 TO 6 DEGREES C. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE MILD TODAY...DESPITE
THE CLOUDS IN PLACE. HIGHS LOOK TO REACH THE 40S IN MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME SPOTS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY EVEN APPROACHING
50 DEGREES BY THIS AFTERNOON.
DURING THE DAY TODAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT ATTACHED
TO THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THE BEST
FORCING LOOKS TO STAY WEST OF THE AREA...THIS SURFACE FRONT COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN TO EXPAND INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO
PREVENT ANY RAIN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE STORM/S COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. AHEAD AND ALONG OF THIS SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SOME RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS
WILL BE FAIRLY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE AND LIGHT IN INTENSITY...AND
THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AND
CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING. WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/PRECIP...TEMPS WILL BE HELD UP
TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE...WITH LOWS THIS
EVENING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. MOST SPOTS WILL SEE TEMPS
HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE TONIGHT. HIGHS ON MONDAY LOOK TO BE IN
THE 40S TO NEAR 50 ON MON MORNING...AND START TO FALL ON MON AFTN
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...ANY PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY END WITH CAA AND
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 20S FOR MON NIGHT. IT SHOULD BE DRY WITH
CLEARING SKIES FOR MON NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. WITH
COLDER TEMPS ALOFT...IT WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS BACK
IN THE 30S...AND SOME UPPER 20S OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. IN
ADDITION...SKIES LOOK TO BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
POTENT STORM IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT THEN TRACK
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
WARM FRONT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
TUESDAY. AS A RETREATING SURFACE HIGH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...THE
THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH WET BULB PROCESS STILL
SUGGESTS A WINTRY MIXTURE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CURRENT HWO LOOKS GOOD
WITH NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. IN FACT...VALLEY
LOCATIONS WILL BE APPROACHING OR JUST EXCEEDING THE 50F DEGREE MARK.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL COME WITH A RATHER SOGGY DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION. LATEST GEFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PWAT ANOMALIES OF 3-4
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL SO MODERATE TO A PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL JET MAGNITUDES OF 60-
70KTS ARE PROGGED AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT SO IF THESE SHOWERS
ARE ABLE TO TAP INTO THIS HIGHER MOMENTUM WINDS...AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL WIND HEADLINES.
AT THIS TIME...SHOWALTERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER POSITIVE TO
LIMIT THUNDER POTENTIAL.
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING AS DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL CUT DOWN THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
RATHER QUICKLY AS SURFACE PRESSURES SLOWLY INCREASE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. PROGRESSIVE COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AS H850 TEMPS DROP
BACK THROUGH THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN AT OR
BELOW -10C INTO FRIDAY. SOME LAKE ONTARIO RESPONSE IS EXPECTED YET
WITH BUILDING SURFACE ANTICYCLONE...BANDS SHOULD NOT PENETRATE TOO
FAR INLAND.
RIDGE AT ALL LEVELS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH A PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER. AS THIS RIDGE SLIDES
EAST DURING SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF
WARM ADVECTION AS DEEP TROUGH UPSTREAM AMPLIFIES FURTHER. BEYOND
THE LONG TERM...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST SEVERAL SOLUTIONS AS WE
MONITOR TRENDS FOR PERHAPS ANOTHER COASTAL EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN. PER THE ENHANCED SATELLITE
IMAGERY...LOWER CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
PORTIONS OF THE KEYSTONE STATE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE WARM
FRONT THAT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY.
PER THE LATEST HRRR REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
FOR A SHOWER TO IMPACT KGFL AS WE WILL PLACE A VCSH DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL DURING TODAY AS DEEPER MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTS NORTHWARD. LATER IN THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF DEWPOINTS INCREASING SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT MIST/BR TO DEVELOP. FURTHERMORE...THIS TOO WARRANTS THE
INCLUSION OF SLIGHT DECREASE IN AVIATION FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
AFTER A CLOSER REVIEW OF THE 06Z GUIDANCE...WE INCLUDED LLWS FOR
TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION
BETWEEN LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW. QPF LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...GENERALLY BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR LESS. SOME ISOLATED LOCAL AMOUNTS OF AROUND A QUARTER
OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
AFTER A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP
INITIALLY...MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. QPF
AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK TO BE A HALF INCH TO AN INCH...WITH
MUCH OF THIS FALLING WITHIN A FEW HOUR PERIOD. THIS
RAINFALL...ALONG WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ALLOWING FOR SOME SNOW AND
ICE TO MELT OUT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...WILL ALLOW FOR SHARP RISES
ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALTHOUGH MAIN STEM RIVERS SHOULD REMAIN
WITHIN THEIR BANKS...LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER AND/OR MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS COULD OCCUR...ESP IN AREAS
WHERE THE GROUND REMAINS FROZEN.
BEHIND THIS STORM SYSTEM...PRECIP WILL END AND TEMPS WILL TURN
COLDER...ALLOWING THE WATER TO RECEDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1102 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
Frontal boundary resting just northwest of the Illinois River
Valley this morning with plenty of southerly flow pushing warm air
into ILX area. Temps well on their way to highs in the 50s, with
areas along and south of I-70 likely to push into the lower 60s
before the cold front moves through later this evening. Have
bumped up the high temperatures a smidge. Area NW of the Illinois
River a little more problematic nearer to the front...but already
approaching 50 in PIA... have bumped them up a couple degrees as
well. Scattered brief sprinkles across the area not likely to
result in widespread measurable precip. So whereas the ground may
be wet north of a line from Jacksonville to Champaign today,
significant precipitation is not expected before 00z, and will
keep the pops low this morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
A warm front will lift north through the area this morning, followed
by a weak surface low progressing from SW to NE across northwestern
IL. Clouds will increase and thicken this morning, with spotty
showers possible during the day. High res models are indicating very
little in the way of coverage and rain amounts in general, so have
reduced the morning PoPs to slight chance, and reduced the overall
rain chance numbers this afternoon as well. Later this afternoon,
eastern areas may have a little better chance of rain as the cold
front pushes east toward the Indiana border and lift is enhanced,
per model omega fields.
High temps will still climb well above normal, as south winds fuel
low level warm advection behind the warm frontal passage. High temps
should reach into the 50s in most areas, with low 60s possible from
Effingham to Lawrenceville.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
Main focus continues to revolve around the Tuesday storm system.
Initial wave will be coming onshore of the Pacific Northwest
shortly, and will dig significantly toward southern California this
evening before tracking east. Main surface low expected to develop
in the vicinity of Las Vegas later today and track east to along the
Kansas/Oklahoma border Monday evening. The model guidance is
relatively clustered along the track into southeast Kansas by
Tuesday morning. At this point, the NAM diverges significantly and
tracks the low into south central Illinois by Tuesday evening, while
the remaining guidance is favoring more of a track in the Quincy-
Chicago corridor. Thus, the NAM was discarded. Some further track
fluctuations are possible as the wave starts to get sampled by the
upper air network later today, but a more northern track has been
persisting the last 3 model runs.
Forecast soundings continue to favor a rain/snow/sleet mix in the
onset of precipitation late Monday evening across the far northern
CWA, before transitioning to an all-rain scenario between 3-6 am.
Some minor accumulations of snow and sleet are possible north of a
Galesburg to Bloomington line by sunrise. As the warm front lifts
northward, focus shifts to the warm sector and potential
thunderstorm development. Latest SPC Day3 outlook has a marginal
risk of severe storms as far north as Champaign/Danville and a
slight risk up to around Newton. GFS continues to maintain a few
hundred J/kg of MUCAPE and some very significant 0-6km shear (75-80
knots) especially over the eastern CWA. The ECMWF is not quite as
far north with the surface low (Kankakee vs. Rockford at 6 pm
Tuesday), and keeps more of the better parameters a bit further
south. Thus, will mainly limit thunder mention to areas south of a
Shelbyville to Danville line. With the front approaching the Indiana
border by 6 pm, left the thunder mention out for the evening.
Post-front, concern becomes with the dry slot and the deformation
zone that extends southwest from the low. Went with the slower ECMWF
in bringing in the dry slot, and went with healthy chance PoP`s in
the evening, but tailed them back overnight in most areas. The
northern CWA may be scraped by the deformation zone as the system
pulls away, so chance PoP`s were kept there overnight. A transition
to snow will occur there as the precipitation ends, but little
accumulation is expected.
The remainder of the forecast period will be dominated by deep long
wave troughs moving through the central U.S. into the weekend. This
will bring periods of cooler conditions. The GFS would suggest a
more substantial cold snap late in the weekend, but with the
strength of the associated upper low still in question, will keep
temperatures a tad below seasonal normals.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
A warm front located across Peoria and extending east just north
of Bloomington will continue to lift north early this morning.
Southerly winds have developed south of the warm front at all
terminal sites. Sustained wind speeds will increase to 14-18kt
with gusts of 25-30kt this morning, mainly east of Peoria.
An early look at the ILX 12z sounding shows LLWS conditions, with
40kt at 800FT AGL from the SW. Have included LLWS through mid
morning in all TAFs except PIA, where HRRR indicates the LLJ
should not affect. Another forecast concern is the development and
coverage of lower cigs/vsbys with scattered light rain or drizzle.
BMI already dropped to OVC002, and satellite fog products show
stratus advancing north into eastern IL. The last several runs of
the HRRR suggested areas from DEC to BMI east thru CMI will have
the higher probabilities for seeing at least low end MVFR cigs.
Low pressure will track into northeast Illinois late in the day
which will help push a cold front southeast into our area by
the end of the day. The strong southerly winds ahead of the front
will begin to diminish somewhat later this afternoon as the front
approaches and the pressure gradient weakens. The cold FROPA will
shift the winds into the west and northwest after 21z with speeds
of 10 to 15 kts. The cold front should push east of CMI by 02z
with drier air moving in behind the weather system which will
allow for a gradual improvement in cigs tonight.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
603 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
A warm front will lift north through the area this morning, followed
by a weak surface low progressing from SW to NE across northwestern
IL. Clouds will increase and thicken this morning, with spotty
showers possible during the day. High res models are indicating very
little in the way of coverage and rain amounts in general, so have
reduced the morning PoPs to slight chance, and reduced the overall
rain chance numbers this afternoon as well. Later this afternoon,
eastern areas may have a little better chance of rain as the cold
front pushes east toward the Indiana border and lift is enhanced,
per model omega fields.
High temps will still climb well above normal, as south winds fuel
low level warm advection behind the warm frontal passage. High temps
should reach into the 50s in most areas, with low 60s possible from
Effingham to Lawrenceville.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
Main focus continues to revolve around the Tuesday storm system.
Initial wave will be coming onshore of the Pacific Northwest
shortly, and will dig significantly toward southern California this
evening before tracking east. Main surface low expected to develop
in the vicinity of Las Vegas later today and track east to along the
Kansas/Oklahoma border Monday evening. The model guidance is
relatively clustered along the track into southeast Kansas by
Tuesday morning. At this point, the NAM diverges significantly and
tracks the low into south central Illinois by Tuesday evening, while
the remaining guidance is favoring more of a track in the Quincy-
Chicago corridor. Thus, the NAM was discarded. Some further track
fluctuations are possible as the wave starts to get sampled by the
upper air network later today, but a more northern track has been
persisting the last 3 model runs.
Forecast soundings continue to favor a rain/snow/sleet mix in the
onset of precipitation late Monday evening across the far northern
CWA, before transitioning to an all-rain scenario between 3-6 am.
Some minor accumulations of snow and sleet are possible north of a
Galesburg to Bloomington line by sunrise. As the warm front lifts
northward, focus shifts to the warm sector and potential
thunderstorm development. Latest SPC Day3 outlook has a marginal
risk of severe storms as far north as Champaign/Danville and a
slight risk up to around Newton. GFS continues to maintain a few
hundred J/kg of MUCAPE and some very significant 0-6km shear (75-80
knots) especially over the eastern CWA. The ECMWF is not quite as
far north with the surface low (Kankakee vs. Rockford at 6 pm
Tuesday), and keeps more of the better parameters a bit further
south. Thus, will mainly limit thunder mention to areas south of a
Shelbyville to Danville line. With the front approaching the Indiana
border by 6 pm, left the thunder mention out for the evening.
Post-front, concern becomes with the dry slot and the deformation
zone that extends southwest from the low. Went with the slower ECMWF
in bringing in the dry slot, and went with healthy chance PoP`s in
the evening, but tailed them back overnight in most areas. The
northern CWA may be scraped by the deformation zone as the system
pulls away, so chance PoP`s were kept there overnight. A transition
to snow will occur there as the precipitation ends, but little
accumulation is expected.
The remainder of the forecast period will be dominated by deep long
wave troughs moving through the central U.S. into the weekend. This
will bring periods of cooler conditions. The GFS would suggest a
more substantial cold snap late in the weekend, but with the
strength of the associated upper low still in question, will keep
temperatures a tad below seasonal normals.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
A warm front located across Peoria and extending east just north
of Bloomington will continue to lift north early this morning.
Southerly winds have developed south of the warm front at all
terminal sites. Sustained wind speeds will increase to 14-18kt
with gusts of 25-30kt this morning, mainly east of Peoria.
An early look at the ILX 12z sounding shows LLWS conditions, with
40kt at 800FT AGL from the SW. Have included LLWS through mid
morning in all TAFs except PIA, where HRRR indicates the LLJ
should not affect. Another forecast concern is the development and
coverage of lower cigs/vsbys with scattered light rain or drizzle.
BMI already dropped to OVC002, and satellite fog products show
stratus advancing north into eastern IL. The last several runs of
the HRRR suggested areas from DEC to BMI east thru CMI will have
the higher probabilities for seeing at least low end MVFR cigs.
Low pressure will track into northeast Illinois late in the day
which will help push a cold front southeast into our area by
the end of the day. The strong southerly winds ahead of the front
will begin to diminish somewhat later this afternoon as the front
approaches and the pressure gradient weakens. The cold FROPA will
shift the winds into the west and northwest after 21z with speeds
of 10 to 15 kts. The cold front should push east of CMI by 02z
with drier air moving in behind the weather system which will
allow for a gradual improvement in cigs tonight.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
239 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
A warm front will lift north through the area this morning, followed
by a weak surface low progressing from SW to NE across northwestern
IL. Clouds will increase and thicken this morning, with spotty
showers possible during the day. High res models are indicating very
little in the way of coverage and rain amounts in general, so have
reduced the morning PoPs to slight chance, and reduced the overall
rain chance numbers this afternoon as well. Later this afternoon,
eastern areas may have a little better chance of rain as the cold
front pushes east toward the Indiana border and lift is enhanced,
per model omega fields.
High temps will still climb well above normal, as south winds fuel
low level warm advection behind the warm frontal passage. High temps
should reach into the 50s in most areas, with low 60s possible from
Effingham to Lawrenceville.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
Main focus continues to revolve around the Tuesday storm system.
Initial wave will be coming onshore of the Pacific Northwest
shortly, and will dig significantly toward southern California this
evening before tracking east. Main surface low expected to develop
in the vicinity of Las Vegas later today and track east to along the
Kansas/Oklahoma border Monday evening. The model guidance is
relatively clustered along the track into southeast Kansas by
Tuesday morning. At this point, the NAM diverges significantly and
tracks the low into south central Illinois by Tuesday evening, while
the remaining guidance is favoring more of a track in the Quincy-
Chicago corridor. Thus, the NAM was discarded. Some further track
fluctuations are possible as the wave starts to get sampled by the
upper air network later today, but a more northern track has been
persisting the last 3 model runs.
Forecast soundings continue to favor a rain/snow/sleet mix in the
onset of precipitation late Monday evening across the far northern
CWA, before transitioning to an all-rain scenario between 3-6 am.
Some minor accumulations of snow and sleet are possible north of a
Galesburg to Bloomington line by sunrise. As the warm front lifts
northward, focus shifts to the warm sector and potential
thunderstorm development. Latest SPC Day3 outlook has a marginal
risk of severe storms as far north as Champaign/Danville and a
slight risk up to around Newton. GFS continues to maintain a few
hundred J/kg of MUCAPE and some very significant 0-6km shear (75-80
knots) especially over the eastern CWA. The ECMWF is not quite as
far north with the surface low (Kankakee vs. Rockford at 6 pm
Tuesday), and keeps more of the better parameters a bit further
south. Thus, will mainly limit thunder mention to areas south of a
Shelbyville to Danville line. With the front approaching the Indiana
border by 6 pm, left the thunder mention out for the evening.
Post-front, concern becomes with the dry slot and the deformation
zone that extends southwest from the low. Went with the slower ECMWF
in bringing in the dry slot, and went with healthy chance PoP`s in
the evening, but tailed them back overnight in most areas. The
northern CWA may be scraped by the deformation zone as the system
pulls away, so chance PoP`s were kept there overnight. A transition
to snow will occur there as the precipitation ends, but little
accumulation is expected.
The remainder of the forecast period will be dominated by deep long
wave troughs moving through the central U.S. into the weekend. This
will bring periods of cooler conditions. The GFS would suggest a
more substantial cold snap late in the weekend, but with the
strength of the associated upper low still in question, will keep
temperatures a tad below seasonal normals.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016
Warm front located across central Illinois will continue to lift
through the remainder of the forecast area overnight. Light east
to southeast winds north of the boundary will become southerly
and increase in speed to 10 to 15 kts. Forecast soundings through
most of the evening suggest borderline wind shear conditions at
SPI, DEC and CMI from about 07z-11z with about 40 kts forecast
around around 1500 feet AGL. With surface winds expected to
increase at these locations, will hold off mentioning at this
point unless surface winds remain less than 10 kts. Main forecast
concern will be the development of lower cigs/vsbys with scattered
light rain or drizzle moving in during Sunday morning. The last
several runs of the HRRR suggested areas from DEC to BMI east thru
CMI will have the higher probabilities for seeing at least low end
MVFR cigs with BMI possibly dropping to IFR for a time Sunday
morning before the remainder of the TAF sites cigs and vsbys
lower.
Low pressure will track into northeast Illinois late in the day
which will help push a cold front southeast into our area by
the end of the day. Surface winds will be rather gusty out of
the south ahead of the front with speeds in the 12 to 17 kt
range with a few gusts around 23 kts at times. Further west
towards PIA, the winds will be lighter out of the south into
early afternoon before a cold front shifts the winds into the
west and northwest after 21z with speeds of 10 to 15 kts. The
cold front should push east of CMI by 02z with drier air moving
in behind the weather system which will allow for a gradual
improvement in cigs Sunday evening.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1108 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016
Temperatures have dropped off much quicker than expected with
several areas across the north half of the forecast area already
at or below expected overnight lows. Sent out an update earlier
this evening to address the cooler temperatures across the north
with a warm front positioned along or just north of I-70 at this
hour. This boundary is expected to lift north later this evening
with southerly winds increasing as well as the front shifts north.
This should put a halt to any additional drop off in temperature
with readings actually slowly rising overnight.
Fairly thick cirrus shield across the area with the colder cloud
tops on IR satellite data lifting just to our northwest associated
with another fast moving shortwave over the central Plains this
evening. This upper wave and associated surface low pressure will
track across central Illinois on Sunday bringing the threat for
some scattered light showers along with unseasonably mild temps for
one more day. With the additional changes made to the grids will
send out another ZFP update by 900 pm.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016
One weak wave is moving through Central Illinois this afternoon with
little more than high and mid clouds associated with it. Clouds
have not impeded the warm up, however. General WAA across the
region is resulting in temps well over normals for late January.
This trend overnight will keep the temps above freezing with mostly
southerly winds all night. Clouds may end up increasing towards
morning as another weak surface low moves SW to NE just NE of ILX by
sunrise.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016
Two systems on track to affect central IL through Wednesday. First
will be a weak system producing a chance for light rain showers and
a return to cooler temperatures Sunday. Second will be a strong
storm system producing significant winter weather from the central
Plains through the Great Lakes Region and a potential for severe
thunderstorms from the lower Mississippi to lower Ohio valley
regions...including southeast Illinois. Models have been relatively
consistent last several runs tracking the center of this low through
central or NW Illinois Tuesday afternoon-evening...delineating a
winter weather threat to the northwest and a severe thunderstorm
threat to the southeast. Although the uncertainty with this track
has changed little with this morning`s 12Z model cycle...the extent
of severe thunderstorm threat in SE Illinois bears watching, as well
as the winter weather threat not far off to the NW.
The first system on Sunday will push a cold front southeastward
across central Illinois beginning Sunday morning and reaching
southeast Illinois Sunday evening. Main upper level forcing looks to
pass by to the north, while strong low level moisture flux, weak
warm advection, and a weak upper level wave Sunday evening look to
target southeast Illinois. As a result...only expecting chances for
light rain...lingering latest in southeast Illinois. Temperatures
should max out only in the mid to upper 40s NW of the Illinois River
as the cold front should pass through by noon...while temperatures
as high as 60 degrees may be reached south of I-70 as the front
arrives in the late afternoon. Conditions should be dry across
central and SE Illinois by midnight with min temperatures Sunday
night reaching from the upper 20s at Galesburg to around 40 in
Lawrenceville.
Monday...the approaching strong storm system will have it`s surface
low centered from northeast New Mexico to the Oklahoma panhandle
area...while central and SE Illinois see quiet weather under high
pressure with light winds, some mid and high clouds, and mild highs
in the 40s.
The heavier precipitation looks to hold off through Monday night as
the low crosses Oklahoma...however temperatures should be cold
enough from around the I-74 corridor northward that some brief light
snow, sleet, and freezing rain are possible early Tuesday morning
before significant warming of lower levels takes place following a
warm frontal passage Tuesday morning.
The heaviest precipitation associated with this system for central
IL is on track for the daytime period Tuesday...largely as a period
of moderate to heavy wind-driven rain totaling around 3/4 inch and
some embedded thunderstorms from Springfield to Lawrenceville
southward by noon...spreading northward as far as a Jacksonville to
Champaign line eastward through the afternoon. Sustained winds may
be over 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph. The latest SPC Day 4 outlook
has inched the slight risk of severe storms northward a bit into the
Flora-Lawrenceville corridor, and will need to monitor this
potential as there is a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE progged, and the
GFS indicates 0-6km bulk shear of well over 75 knots Tuesday
afternoon. Highs Tuesday expected to range from 42 in Galesburg to
59 in Lawrenceville.
For Tuesday night, both the GFS and ECMWF show a good portion of the
central IL forecast area coming under the influence of the dry slot
before a post-cold frontal upper wave traverses central IL Wednesday
morning...producing a chance for light snow. However, due to timing
uncertainty this far out, have continued to include a chance for
precipitation through this period in afternoon forecast. Stiff 20-30
mph winds shifting to westerly will accompany this period. Snow
accumulations continue to look low for central Illinois provided the
current expected low track continues. At this time...expecting
accumulations under 1 inch in central IL...and mainly north of I-72
Significant snow accumulations are a strong possibility to the
northwest of the low track...which looks at this time to track from
north central Missouri to northwest Illinois Tuesday afternoon.
Temperatures the remainder of the week will feature surges of colder
air coming down into the Midwest. Some uncertainty remains in the
exact temperatures...however the current blend of extended range
models incorporates high temperatures in the mid 20s to upper 30s
each day Wednesday through Saturday, and lows in the teens to low
20s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016
Warm front located across central Illinois will continue to lift
through the remainder of the forecast area overnight. Light east
to southeast winds north of the boundary will become southerly
and increase in speed to 10 to 15 kts. Forecast soundings through
most of the evening suggest borderline wind shear conditions at
SPI, DEC and CMI from about 07z-11z with about 40 kts forecast
around around 1500 feet AGL. With surface winds expected to
increase at these locations, will hold off mentioning at this
point unless surface winds remain less than 10 kts. Main forecast
concern will be the development of lower cigs/vsbys with scattered
light rain or drizzle moving in during Sunday morning. The last
several runs of the HRRR suggested areas from DEC to BMI east thru
CMI will have the higher probabilities for seeing at least low end
MVFR cigs with BMI possibly dropping to IFR for a time Sunday
morning before the remainder of the TAF sites cigs and vsbys
lower.
Low pressure will track into northeast Illinois late in the day
which will help push a cold front southeast into our area by
the end of the day. Surface winds will be rather gusty out of
the south ahead of the front with speeds in the 12 to 17 kt
range with a few gusts around 23 kts at times. Further west
towards PIA, the winds will be lighter out of the south into
early afternoon before a cold front shifts the winds into the
west and northwest after 21z with speeds of 10 to 15 kts. The
cold front should push east of CMI by 02z with drier air moving
in behind the weather system which will allow for a gradual
improvement in cigs Sunday evening.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1200 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
ONE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY BRINGING SOME RAIN
TO THE AREA. A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE IN ON TUESDAY BRINGING RAIN
AND PERHAPS SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN
ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A RETURN TO SEASONABLE WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM.../REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1002 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
UPDATE...TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S (LOWER THAN
EXPECTED) OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS. MOST AREAS ARE PROBABLY NEAR THEIR
CURRENT LOWS FOR TONIGHT AND AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT WILL
CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN A SLOW RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN CHANGES
TONIGHT WILL BE WITH FINE TUNING TEMPERATURES.
DECIDED TO LEAVE IN CHANCE OF SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENE
IS LOW THAT ANY OF THIS WILL HAPPEN PER NEW RAP WHICH IS SLOWER IN
SATURATING THE LOW LEVELS LATE TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES AS WELL...AND THUS EXPECT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. WILL TREND SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY.
MODELS HINT AT POSSIBILITY OF RAIN BEFORE 12Z...BUT FORCING JUST
DOES NOT LOOK DECENT ENOUGH FOR MEASURABLE RAIN. WILL INCLUDE
MENTION OF SPRINKLES THOUGH.
WENT WITH A BLEND OF MODELS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAM IS A SLOW AND
FARTHER SOUTH OUTLIER WITH A SURFACE LOW ON TUESDAY. NAM IS NOT
USUALLY GREAT AT THAT FAR OUT IN ITS FORECAST ANYWAY. WILL IGNORE IT
AND GO WITH A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF.
WEAK...BUT INCREASING...LIFT WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
AREA WITH WARM ADVECTION. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE BEST FORCING WILL
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT AND
BETTER UPPER SUPPORT MOVE IN.
THUS WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY /BUT LIKELY
FAR NORTHWEST CLOSEST TO THE COLD FRONT/...WITH HIGHEST POPS LATE
AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY EVENING WENT WITH LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOWERED POPS DURING THE NIGHT AS FRONT
EXITS.
MONDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH CENTRAL INDIANA IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. AS
A WARM FRONT BEGINS ITS APPROACH OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...WENT LOW
POPS FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. WENT CHANCE
POPS AS THIS MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA BY 00Z. STRONG WIND FIELDS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
IN PLENTY OF MOISTURE. WENT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC SYSTEM AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO GET SOME STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS /MAINLY SOUTH/
LATE IN THE DAY.
BRIEFLY LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWER CLOUDS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY DID NOT GO AS WARM AS MAV MOS WOULD SUGGEST. HOWEVER...AS
SEEN BY THE TEMPERATURES TODAY...IF SOME SUN DOES BREAK OUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER. GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND AFTER
SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 210 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING INTO THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA AND SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. VERY IMPRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM SW-
NE OVER THE AREA WITH 120 KTS AT H5 AND 160 KT AT H25 AT 03/06Z
THROUGH 03/12Z TIME PERIOD. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW 60-70 KT
LOW LEVEL JET JUST AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT. SPC DAY4
OUTLOOK HAS 15 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA /MAINLY SOUTH OF A HUF - DAY LINE/.
GIVEN THOSE WINDS...WOULD EXPECT STRONG WINDS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WEATHER WILL RETURN TO MORE FEBRUARY-LIKE
WEATHER. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON
THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE WEATHER WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES MORE
NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...BUT LOW CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AFTER SUN 09Z AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. CEILINGS WILL BE
RIGHT AROUND THE VFR/MVFR MARK AT THAT POINT...DETERIORATING
FURTHER TO MVFR AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD
TAF SITES BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS AT THAT POINT WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR DURING HEAVIER
RAIN THROUGH END OF TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
EARLY THIS MORNING AND START GUSTING UP TO 21 KTS BY MID MORNING.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...AND GUSTS WILL
TAPER OFF BETWEEN SUN 00-03Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/JH
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....DWM
AVIATION...TDUD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
647 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO DELAY ONSET OF PRECIPITATION A BIT
TONIGHT AS HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SLOWER START TO
THE PRECIP WITH IT TAKING A BIT LONGER TO REACH SATURATION.
ADDITIONALLY HAVE A PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW VISIBILITIES AND DENSE
FOG ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS
AREA IS EXPANDING WESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. HAVE ISSUED AN SPS RIGHT NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR A POTENTIAL DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF THE AREA CONTINUES TO
EXPAND. LATEST HRRR MODEL INDICATES IT COULD PERSIST INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AND EXPAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. HAVE
INSERTED A GREATER MENTION OF FOG INTO THE GRIDS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR FOR A POTENTIAL HEADLINE AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 409 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS SQUARELY ON TIMING AND IMPACTS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE IMPENDING WINTER STORM. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THE LARGE NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH EMERGING IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. IN RESPONSE...SFC CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES TO
INTENSIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH MAX SFC PRESSURE FALLS OF 6-
MB/3HR NOTED OVER KS/OK. ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE...MRMS RADAR MOSAIC AND OBSERVATIONS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE ALL THE MEASURABLE PCPN REMAINING OVER NE/KS AS
OF THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS EVENING THROUGH 10PM...SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT A MAJORITY OF THE EVENING SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS MODEL
TIME SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS /E.G. 850MB/. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW E/W BAND OF PRECIPITATION
LIFTING NWD ACROSS AREA ALONG THE LEADING SURGE OF ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. HOWEVER...ANY PRECIP /LIKELY A RAIN/SNOW MIX/ WITHIN THIS
BAND SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIGHT...WITH ONLY MINOR SNOW ACCUMS.
TONIGHT AFTER 10 PM...IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. COMBINATION OF VERY
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...AND LOWER STATIC
STABILITY SHOULD YIELD ARE LARGE SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
TOWARDS 12Z TUE AS WELL DUE TO A PLUME OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO 100-200 J/KG OF MUCAPE. PORTIONS OF FAR
SOUTHERN IOWA WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS A PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG ADIABATIC
ASCENT...AND WET BULB EFFECTS IN THE PBL SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY
QUICK CHANGEOVER TO SNOW EXCEPT ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 409 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
PLENTY TO DISCUSS WITH ALL EYES STILL FOCUSED ON IMPENDING WINTER
STORM. LONG WAVE TROUGH IN QUESTION IS STILL ONLY MOVING THROUGH THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA BUT MID LEVEL FORCING EFFECTS ARE ALREADY
APPROACHING THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH MAINLY VIRGA FOR NOW. THIS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD INTO IA AT PERIOD ONSET AND MATURE COMBINING WITH
IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE NOW FORMING FROM KS INTO MO. THETA-E
ADVECTION...FRONTOGENETIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING ARE ALL VERY
STRONG AND IMPRESSIVELY PHASED EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT SOME
CONCERN IS THAT MUCH OF THIS LIFT IS BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE /DGZ/...WHICH IS NOT THAT DEEP ANYWAYS...AND MAY LEAD TO
LOWER RATIOS. HOWEVER CONVECTIVE SNOW IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH
UPRIGHT CONVECTION OVERWHELMING ANYTHING THAT MAY BE SLANTWISE/CSI
AS MOST MODELS ARE DEPICTING TOKEN MUCAPES. CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS ALL REFLECT THIS AS WELL WITH SHOWERY 40-50 DBZ ECHOES IN
SNOW. THUS 1-2 INCH/HOUR RATES ARE QUITE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHERN
INTO CENTRAL IA AROUND THE MORNING COMMUTE. EXAMINATION OF NAM
CONVECTIVE PRECIP FIELDS SUPPORTS THIS AS WELL...EVEN BRINGING
SPOTTY AMOUNTS TOWARD THE MN BORDER. HAVE EVEN ADDED FLAT OUR
THUNDERSTORM WORDING SE.
WELL ADVERTISED DRY SLOT HAS BECOME EVEN MORE PROMINENT THIS MORNING
AND LOOKS TO DIMINISH PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. THERE COULD VERY WELL BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TOO AS THE DRY SLOT...RAIN/SNOW LINE
LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. ADEQUATE LIFT MAY STILL PHASE WITH
A DECENT MOISTURE DEPTH...ALTHOUGH NOT DEEP AND COOL ENOUGH TO ADD
ICE INTRODUCTION. HOWEVER FARTHER NORTH THE DGZ DEEPENS SOMEWHAT AND
BETTER PHASES WITH THE MAX OMEGA AND SHOULD RESULT IN VERY HEAVY
SNOW ACROSS THE NW THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EVENING AS
THE DEFORMATION ZONE LINGERS AND PIVOTS OVER THESE LOCATIONS.
ALTHOUGH DIFFICULT TO INJECT INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT THE
OPERATIONAL NAM AND COMPANION NMM CORES DEVELOP WHAT LOOKS TO BE
CONVECTIVE PRECIP JUST NW OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK EARLY TUE
EVENING...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A HEAVY BURST OF UNDETERMINED WINTRY
PRECIP BEING RIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE PRECIP TYPE TRANSITION
LINE. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCH WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY INTO TUE.
TRUE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MAY BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL THROUGH THE EVENT
WITH 1/4SM VISIBILITIES AND 35 MPH GUSTS NOT COUPLED FOR EXTENDED
PERIODS AS ONE WIND SURGE MOVES THROUGH TUE...AND THEN SWINGS BACK
THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT. MOST MODELS DO NOT SHOW TOO DEEP OF MIXING
SO GENERALLY KEPT MAX WIND GUSTS 35-40 MPH. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS DO
INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING THAT...AND MAY OCCUR
LOCALLY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE TO INJECT INTO THE FORECAST ON
A WIDESPREAD BASIS AS OF YET.
WHAT THIS ALL AMOUNTS TO FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST IS LITTLE
CHANGE FOR SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNING WITH AMOUNTS
LOWERED SOMEWHAT IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING STRIPE...INCLUDING THE
DES MOINES METRO AREA. BLIZZARD WARNING 8-12...WINTER STORM WARNING
4-9...AND A TIER OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GENERALLY 2-4.
SOME MINOR BLOWING SNOW MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY AND INACTIVE WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. DRY NW FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
THE NEXT ITERATION OF WRN CONUS LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO END THE
WEEKEND. A SHORT WAVE DROPS THROUGH THU BUT IS MOISTURE
STARVED...AND THERE COULD BE SOME TOKEN LIGHT SNOW WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION SURGE MON BUT CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME. THE BIGGEST SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED
WILL LIKELY BE COLDER TEMPERATURES...WHICH ARE MAINLY JUST BEYOND
THE VALID PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...02/00Z
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
SOME DENSE FOG AROUND MAY TRICKLE INTO KDSM SO HIGHLIGHTED WITH A
MENTION THIS EVENING AS REPORTS INTO THE EAST SIDE OF THE METRO
AREA NOW. ALSO PUT INTO KALO AS IT SHOULD BRING VSBYS DOWN UNTIL
WINDS PICK UP LATER. OTHERWISE MAIN STORY IS PRECIP PUSHING IN
LATE TONIGHT WITH CIGS LOWERING AND CONDITIONS DETERIORATING BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY AND CONTINUING TO BE HAZARDOUS THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. SE TAF
SITES AT KDSM AND KOTM EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-AUDUBON-BOONE-CASS-DALLAS-GUTHRIE-MADISON-POLK.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR CLARKE-JASPER-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
CERRO GORDO-EMMET-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-
PALO ALTO-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-GRUNDY-HARDIN-MARSHALL-STORY.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CRAWFORD-GREENE-POCAHONTAS-SAC-WEBSTER.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BEERENDS
SHORT TERM...FOWLE
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...BEERENDS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
528 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 409 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS SQUARELY ON TIMING AND IMPACTS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE IMPENDING WINTER STORM. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THE LARGE NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH EMERGING IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. IN RESPONSE...SFC CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES TO
INTENSIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH MAX SFC PRESSURE FALLS OF 6-
MB/3HR NOTED OVER KS/OK. ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE...MRMS RADAR MOSAIC AND OBSERVATIONS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE ALL THE MEASURABLE PCPN REMAINING OVER NE/KS AS
OF THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS EVENING THROUGH 10PM...SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT A MAJORITY OF THE EVENING SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS MODEL
TIME SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS /E.G. 850MB/. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW E/W BAND OF PRECIPITATION
LIFTING NWD ACROSS AREA ALONG THE LEADING SURGE OF ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. HOWEVER...ANY PRECIP /LIKELY A RAIN/SNOW MIX/ WITHIN THIS
BAND SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIGHT...WITH ONLY MINOR SNOW ACCUMS.
TONIGHT AFTER 10 PM...IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. COMBINATION OF VERY
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...AND LOWER STATIC
STABILITY SHOULD YIELD ARE LARGE SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
TOWARDS 12Z TUE AS WELL DUE TO A PLUME OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO 100-200 J/KG OF MUCAPE. PORTIONS OF FAR
SOUTHERN IOWA WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS A PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG ADIABATIC
ASCENT...AND WET BULB EFFECTS IN THE PBL SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY
QUICK CHANGEOVER TO SNOW EXCEPT ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 409 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
PLENTY TO DISCUSS WITH ALL EYES STILL FOCUSED ON IMPENDING WINTER
STORM. LONG WAVE TROUGH IN QUESTION IS STILL ONLY MOVING THROUGH THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA BUT MID LEVEL FORCING EFFECTS ARE ALREADY
APPROACHING THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH MAINLY VIRGA FOR NOW. THIS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD INTO IA AT PERIOD ONSET AND MATURE COMBINING WITH
IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE NOW FORMING FROM KS INTO MO. THETA-E
ADVECTION...FRONTOGENETIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING ARE ALL VERY
STRONG AND IMPRESSIVELY PHASED EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT SOME
CONCERN IS THAT MUCH OF THIS LIFT IS BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE /DGZ/...WHICH IS NOT THAT DEEP ANYWAYS...AND MAY LEAD TO
LOWER RATIOS. HOWEVER CONVECTIVE SNOW IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH
UPRIGHT CONVECTION OVERWHELMING ANYTHING THAT MAY BE SLANTWISE/CSI
AS MOST MODELS ARE DEPICTING TOKEN MUCAPES. CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS ALL REFLECT THIS AS WELL WITH SHOWERY 40-50 DBZ ECHOES IN
SNOW. THUS 1-2 INCH/HOUR RATES ARE QUITE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHERN
INTO CENTRAL IA AROUND THE MORNING COMMUTE. EXAMINATION OF NAM
CONVECTIVE PRECIP FIELDS SUPPORTS THIS AS WELL...EVEN BRINGING
SPOTTY AMOUNTS TOWARD THE MN BORDER. HAVE EVEN ADDED FLAT OUR
THUNDERSTORM WORDING SE.
WELL ADVERTISED DRY SLOT HAS BECOME EVEN MORE PROMINENT THIS MORNING
AND LOOKS TO DIMINISH PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. THERE COULD VERY WELL BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TOO AS THE DRY SLOT...RAIN/SNOW LINE
LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. ADEQUATE LIFT MAY STILL PHASE WITH
A DECENT MOISTURE DEPTH...ALTHOUGH NOT DEEP AND COOL ENOUGH TO ADD
ICE INTRODUCTION. HOWEVER FARTHER NORTH THE DGZ DEEPENS SOMEWHAT AND
BETTER PHASES WITH THE MAX OMEGA AND SHOULD RESULT IN VERY HEAVY
SNOW ACROSS THE NW THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EVENING AS
THE DEFORMATION ZONE LINGERS AND PIVOTS OVER THESE LOCATIONS.
ALTHOUGH DIFFICULT TO INJECT INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT THE
OPERATIONAL NAM AND COMPANION NMM CORES DEVELOP WHAT LOOKS TO BE
CONVECTIVE PRECIP JUST NW OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK EARLY TUE
EVENING...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A HEAVY BURST OF UNDETERMINED WINTRY
PRECIP BEING RIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE PRECIP TYPE TRANSITION
LINE. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCH WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY INTO TUE.
TRUE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MAY BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL THROUGH THE EVENT
WITH 1/4SM VISIBILITIES AND 35 MPH GUSTS NOT COUPLED FOR EXTENDED
PERIODS AS ONE WIND SURGE MOVES THROUGH TUE...AND THEN SWINGS BACK
THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT. MOST MODELS DO NOT SHOW TOO DEEP OF MIXING
SO GENERALLY KEPT MAX WIND GUSTS 35-40 MPH. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS DO
INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING THAT...AND MAY OCCUR
LOCALLY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE TO INJECT INTO THE FORECAST ON
A WIDESPREAD BASIS AS OF YET.
WHAT THIS ALL AMOUNTS TO FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST IS LITTLE
CHANGE FOR SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNING WITH AMOUNTS
LOWERED SOMEWHAT IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING STRIPE...INCLUDING THE
DES MOINES METRO AREA. BLIZZARD WARNING 8-12...WINTER STORM WARNING
4-9...AND A TIER OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GENERALLY 2-4.
SOME MINOR BLOWING SNOW MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY AND INACTIVE WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. DRY NW FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
THE NEXT ITERATION OF WRN CONUS LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO END THE
WEEKEND. A SHORT WAVE DROPS THROUGH THU BUT IS MOISTURE
STARVED...AND THERE COULD BE SOME TOKEN LIGHT SNOW WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION SURGE MON BUT CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME. THE BIGGEST SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED
WILL LIKELY BE COLDER TEMPERATURES...WHICH ARE MAINLY JUST BEYOND
THE VALID PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...02/00Z
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
SOME DENSE FOG AROUND MAY TRICKLE INTO KDSM SO HIGHLIGHTED WITH A
MENTION THIS EVENING AS REPORTS INTO THE EAST SIDE OF THE METRO
AREA NOW. ALSO PUT INTO KALO AS IT SHOULD BRING VSBYS DOWN UNTIL
WINDS PICK UP LATER. OTHERWISE MAIN STORY IS PRECIP PUSHING IN
LATE TONIGHT WITH CIGS LOWERING AND CONDITIONS DETERIORATING BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY AND CONTINUING TO BE HAZARDOUS THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. SE TAF
SITES AT KDSM AND KOTM EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-AUDUBON-BOONE-CASS-DALLAS-GUTHRIE-MADISON-POLK.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR CLARKE-JASPER-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
CERRO GORDO-EMMET-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-
PALO ALTO-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-GRUNDY-HARDIN-MARSHALL-STORY.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CRAWFORD-GREENE-POCAHONTAS-SAC-WEBSTER.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FOWLE
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...BEERENDS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1150 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...SCT SHOWERS...AND DEVELOPING
NORTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS BEHIND A SFC COLD FRONT...DROPPED HIGH
TEMPS FOR TODAY BY SEVERAL DEGREES. NOW HAVE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S FOR THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ALSO INCREASED POPS INTO THE 60-80 PERCENT RANGE IN A SE-NW
ORIENTED BAND OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHEAST/AND EAST-CENTRAL SECTIONS
OF THE CWA. IN THIS AREA...ROUGHLY CENTERED ALONG A FAIRFIELD
IOWA TO QUAD CITIES TO FREEPORT ILLINOIS AXIS...700MB
FRONTOGENESIS AND 0-1 KM CONVERGENCE IS FORCING ASCENT AND A BAND
OF RAIN SHOWERS WHICH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE EARLY
AFTN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
HRRR...RAP AND SURFACE OBS DEPICT A MORE SOUTHERN FGEN BAND MOVING
ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. THIS IS BACKED UP BY SEVERAL HRRR
RUNS. AS SUCH...HAVE PULLED THE CHC POPS SOUTH. IF THE COVERAGE OF
REPORTED PRECIP INCREASES...THEN WILL NEED TO PROBABLY NEED TO GO
WITH LIKELY POPS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
EARLY THIS MORNING A SFC BOUNDARY LAY ACROSS THE CWA. THIS PSEUDO
WARM FRONT/INVERTED TROF EXTENDED FROM A SFC LOW LOCATED OVER SE
KS AND W MO. LIGHT SPRINKLES AND EVEN SOME RAIN HAD BEEN REPORTED
EARLIER WITH A FGEN BAND AS IT ADVECTED NORTH THROUGH THE CWA.
THIS LOW AND ATTENDANT BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA AS A COLD FRONT AND LEAD TO LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE COVERAGE OF POPS
TODAY WITH A POST FRONT FGEN BAND AND AN ADVANCING SFC LOW THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND WILL RESULT IN RAIN FALLING ACROSS
THE AREA. MOST OF THIS RAIN SHOULD FALL ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ZONES...AIDING IN MELTING REMAINING SNOW.
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE HINTING AT TWO AREAS OF QPF THAT WILL
AFFECT THE AREA THIS AM AND THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LOOKS
LIKE THE SPECTRAL...GRIDDED AND CAM MODELS ALL SUGGEST QPF WITH A
POST FRONTAL FGEN BAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. RECENT RADAR
TRENDS ACROSS E NE AND W IA SUGGEST THAT I80 NORTH HAS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR POPS FROM THIS BAND. DECIDED TO GO HIGH END CHC POPS
FOR THIS AS CONVERGENCE AND OVERALL FORCING WILL BE WEAKENING AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...RECENT RAP RUN SUGGESTS
THAT A REINTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AM INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF STRONGER FGEN TRANSVERSES THE AREA. HIRES
CAM MODELS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP ON THIS AS WELL. WILL MONITOR
THIS THROUGH REST OF SHIFT TO DETERMINE IF LIKELYS ARE NEEDED.
ANOTHER AREA OF QPF LOOKS TO FORM AHEAD OF THIS FGEN BAND ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY OVER BUREAU
AND PUTNAM COUNTY. THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL...SO THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE POP FIELDS. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT ALL RAIN AT
THIS TIME WITH QPF AROUND 0.10 INCHES. TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP INTO THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
WELL ADVERTISED POTENTIAL WINTER STORM EARLY IN THE WEEK CONTINUES
TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS. OVERALL...THE NORTHWARD DRIFT EXHIBITED OVER
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS CONTINUED IN THE 00Z RUNS...LEADING TO A LESSER
LIKELIHOOD OF HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...OUR FAR NORTHERN IA COUNTIES
REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CONSENSUS AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW AXIS SHOWN
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR THAT AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE MODEL TRENDS OF THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS CONTINUED FOR 00Z/31 WITH
THE GFS STICKING TO THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WITH FASTER SYSTEM
PROGRESSION. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY MIDDLE OF THE ROAD...SLIGHTLY
SLOWER ECMWF AND THEN MORE SOUTHERLY NAM AND CANADIAN/GEM. WHILE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS STILL MODEST TO LOW DUE TO THE UPPER JET AND
TROUGH AXIS STILL OFF THE COAST AND NOT EXPECTED TO BE WELL SAMPLED
UNTIL LATER TODAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH OF A TREND WITH THE
MOST CONSISTENT GFS AND ECMWF BLENDS AND SREF TO SUPPORT A 50
PERCENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL POTENTIAL FOR 6 TO POSSIBLY 8 INCHES OF
SNOW NW OF A CID TO DBQ LINE WHERE A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ALL SUGGEST THE HEAVIEST
SNOW WILL BE DURING THE TUE MORNING PERIOD...WHERE THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR 6 PLUS INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NE IA. WHILE WINDS
WILL RAMP UP FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW TO N-NW AT
LEAST 20 TO 30 MPH BY TUE NIGHT...STRONGER WINDS AND THE NEEDED
SUPPORT OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND ARCTIC AIR IS LACKING WITH THIS
SYSTEM. 00Z ANALYSIS SHOWED 850 MB TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO C OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH NO SUBZERO TEMPERATURES SEEN AT THE SURFACE
OVER THE SAME REGION TONIGHT. WILL THUS HOLD OFF ON ADVERTISING
BLIZZARD TYPE WORDING AND ONLY MENTION PATCHY BLOWING SNOW DUE TO
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES DURING THE MOST OF THE EVENT THAT
WILL BE NON- CONDUCIVE TO CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW.
FURTHER SOUTH...THE NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THERMAL FIELDS WILL
LIKELY SEND THE RAIN/SNOW LINE MUCH FURTHER NORTH...LEADING TO
MAINLY A RAIN EVENT FOR THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
QPF OF A HALF INCH OR MORE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BEFORE A DRY SLOT
MOVES IN NEARLY ENDING THE PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON.
BLENDED APPROACH WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTH...WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD POTENTIALLY SURGE INTO THE LOWER
50S IF THE GFS TRACK VERIFIES. OVERNIGHT...COLDER AIR WRAPPING
AROUND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM SHOULD CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO
ALL SNOW...AND THIS IS WHERE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY
OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WED THROUGH SAT...THE FORECAST MAINTAINS A COLD AND MAINLY DRY
STRETCH WITH SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
IMPACTING MAINLY AREAS TO THE NORTH. HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS MAY BE TOO WARM DEPENDING ON THE
DEPTH AND COVERAGE OF NEW SNOWFALL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IS BRINGING LIGHT RAIN
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN MIST TO KCID...KDBQ...KMLI..AND
KBRL. THE LIGHT RAIN OR VCSH WILL EXIT KBRL AND KMLI EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN MIST EXITING THE
REGION BY MID AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS CURRENT CEILINGS AOA 1500 FT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO LAST LONG. MIST WITH VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 3 AND 5 SM
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 09 AND 15 UTC. OTHERWISE
TAFS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JONES-LINN.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...UTTECH
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...COUSINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1047 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...SCT SHOWERS...AND DEVELOPING
NORTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS BEHIND A SFC COLD FRONT...DROPPED HIGH
TEMPS FOR TODAY BY SEVERAL DEGREES. NOW HAVE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S FOR THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ALSO INCREASED POPS INTO THE 60-80 PERCENT RANGE IN A SE-NW
ORIENTED BAND OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHEAST/AND EAST-CENTRAL SECTIONS
OF THE CWA. IN THIS AREA...ROUGHLY CENTERED ALONG A FAIRFIELD
IOWA TO QUAD CITIES TO FREEPORT ILLINOIS AXIS...700MB
FRONTOGENESIS AND 0-1 KM CONVERGENCE IS FORCING ASCENT AND A BAND
OF RAIN SHOWERS WHICH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE EARLY
AFTN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
HRRR...RAP AND SURFACE OBS DEPICT A MORE SOUTHERN FGEN BAND MOVING
ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. THIS IS BACKED UP BY SEVERAL HRRR
RUNS. AS SUCH...HAVE PULLED THE CHC POPS SOUTH. IF THE COVERAGE OF
REPORTED PRECIP INCREASES...THEN WILL NEED TO PROBABLY NEED TO GO
WITH LIKELY POPS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
EARLY THIS MORNING A SFC BOUNDARY LAY ACROSS THE CWA. THIS PSEUDO
WARM FRONT/INVERTED TROF EXTENDED FROM A SFC LOW LOCATED OVER SE
KS AND W MO. LIGHT SPRINKLES AND EVEN SOME RAIN HAD BEEN REPORTED
EARLIER WITH A FGEN BAND AS IT ADVECTED NORTH THROUGH THE CWA.
THIS LOW AND ATTENDANT BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA AS A COLD FRONT AND LEAD TO LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE COVERAGE OF POPS
TODAY WITH A POST FRONT FGEN BAND AND AN ADVANCING SFC LOW THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND WILL RESULT IN RAIN FALLING ACROSS
THE AREA. MOST OF THIS RAIN SHOULD FALL ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ZONES...AIDING IN MELTING REMAINING SNOW.
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE HINTING AT TWO AREAS OF QPF THAT WILL
AFFECT THE AREA THIS AM AND THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LOOKS
LIKE THE SPECTRAL...GRIDDED AND CAM MODELS ALL SUGGEST QPF WITH A
POST FRONTAL FGEN BAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. RECENT RADAR
TRENDS ACROSS E NE AND W IA SUGGEST THAT I80 NORTH HAS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR POPS FROM THIS BAND. DECIDED TO GO HIGH END CHC POPS
FOR THIS AS CONVERGENCE AND OVERALL FORCING WILL BE WEAKENING AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...RECENT RAP RUN SUGGESTS
THAT A REINTESIFICATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AM INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF STRONGER FGEN TRANSVERSES THE AREA. HIRES
CAM MODELS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP ON THIS AS WELL. WILL MONITOR
THIS THROUGH REST OF SHIFT TO DETERMINE IF LIKELYS ARE NEEDED.
ANOTHER AREA OF QPF LOOKS TO FORM AHEAD OF THIS FGEN BAND ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY OVER BUREAU
AND PUTNAM COUNTY. THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL...SO THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE POP FIELDS. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT ALL RAIN AT
THIS TIME WITH QPF AROUND 0.10 INCHES. TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP INTO THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
WELL ADVERTISED POTENTIAL WINTER STORM EARLY IN THE WEEK CONTINUES
TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS. OVERALL...THE NORTHWARD DRIFT EXHIBITED OVER
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS CONTINUED IN THE 00Z RUNS...LEADING TO A LESSER
LIKELIHOOD OF HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...OUR FAR NORTHERN IA COUNTIES
REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CONSENSUS AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW AXIS SHOWN
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR THAT AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE MODEL TRENDS OF THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS CONTINUED FOR 00Z/31 WITH
THE GFS STICKING TO THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WITH FASTER SYSTEM
PROGRESSION. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY MIDDLE OF THE ROAD...SLIGHTLY
SLOWER ECMWF AND THEN MORE SOUTHERLY NAM AND CANADIAN/GEM. WHILE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS STILL MODEST TO LOW DUE TO THE UPPER JET AND
TROUGH AXIS STILL OFF THE COAST AND NOT EXPECTED TO BE WELL SAMPLED
UNTIL LATER TODAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH OF A TREND WITH THE
MOST CONSISTENT GFS AND ECMWF BLENDS AND SREF TO SUPPORT A 50
PERCENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL POTENTIAL FOR 6 TO POSSIBLY 8 INCHES OF
SNOW NW OF A CID TO DBQ LINE WHERE A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ALL SUGGEST THE HEAVIEST
SNOW WILL BE DURING THE TUE MORNING PERIOD...WHERE THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR 6 PLUS INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NE IA. WHILE WINDS
WILL RAMP UP FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW TO N-NW AT
LEAST 20 TO 30 MPH BY TUE NIGHT...STRONGER WINDS AND THE NEEDED
SUPPORT OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND ARCTIC AIR IS LACKING WITH THIS
SYSTEM. 00Z ANALYSIS SHOWED 850 MB TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO C OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH NO SUBZERO TEMPERATURES SEEN AT THE SURFACE
OVER THE SAME REGION TONIGHT. WILL THUS HOLD OFF ON ADVERTISING
BLIZZARD TYPE WORDING AND ONLY MENTION PATCHY BLOWING SNOW DUE TO
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES DURING THE MOST OF THE EVENT THAT
WILL BE NON- CONDUCIVE TO CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW.
FURTHER SOUTH...THE NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THERMAL FIELDS WILL
LIKELY SEND THE RAIN/SNOW LINE MUCH FURTHER NORTH...LEADING TO
MAINLY A RAIN EVENT FOR THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
QPF OF A HALF INCH OR MORE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BEFORE A DRY SLOT
MOVES IN NEARLY ENDING THE PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON.
BLENDED APPROACH WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTH...WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD POTENTIALLY SURGE INTO THE LOWER
50S IF THE GFS TRACK VERIFIES. OVERNIGHT...COLDER AIR WRAPPING
AROUND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM SHOULD CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO
ALL SNOW...AND THIS IS WHERE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY
OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WED THROUGH SAT...THE FORECAST MAINTAINS A COLD AND MAINLY DRY
STRETCH WITH SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
IMPACTING MAINLY AREAS TO THE NORTH. HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS MAY BE TOO WARM DEPENDING ON THE
DEPTH AND COVERAGE OF NEW SNOWFALL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS AM WILL TURN
BACK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN RAIN HITTING THE TAF SITES DIRECTLY SO DECIDED TO
KEEP IN THE VCSH MENTION. WILL PUT IN -RA WHEN TIMING BECOMES
CLEARER. OTHERWISE WIND SHIFT WITH FROPA TODAY AND MVFR ARE THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JONES-LINN.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...UTTECH
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
641 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
HRRR...RAP AND SURFACE OBS DEPICT A MORE SOUTHERN FGEN BAND MOVING
ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. THIS IS BACKED UP BY SEVERAL HRRR
RUNS. AS SUCH...HAVE PULLED THE CHC POPS SOUTH. IF THE COVERAGE OF
REPORTED PRECIP INCREASES...THEN WILL NEED TO PROBABLY NEED TO GO
WITH LIKELY POPS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
EARLY THIS MORNING A SFC BOUNDARY LAY ACROSS THE CWA. THIS PSEUDO
WARM FRONT/INVERTED TROF EXTENDED FROM A SFC LOW LOCATED OVER SE
KS AND W MO. LIGHT SPRINKLES AND EVEN SOME RAIN HAD BEEN REPORTED
EARLIER WITH A FGEN BAND AS IT ADVECTED NORTH THROUGH THE CWA.
THIS LOW AND ATTENDANT BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA AS A COLD FRONT AND LEAD TO LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE COVERAGE OF POPS
TODAY WITH A POST FRONT FGEN BAND AND AN ADVANCING SFC LOW THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND WILL RESULT IN RAIN FALLING ACROSS
THE AREA. MOST OF THIS RAIN SHOULD FALL ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ZONES...AIDING IN MELTING REMAINING SNOW.
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE HINTING AT TWO AREAS OF QPF THAT WILL
AFFECT THE AREA THIS AM AND THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LOOKS
LIKE THE SPECTRAL...GRIDDED AND CAM MODELS ALL SUGGEST QPF WITH A
POST FRONTAL FGEN BAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. RECENT RADAR
TRENDS ACROSS E NE AND W IA SUGGEST THAT I80 NORTH HAS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR POPS FROM THIS BAND. DECIDED TO GO HIGH END CHC POPS
FOR THIS AS CONVERGENCE AND OVERALL FORCING WILL BE WEAKENING AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...RECENT RAP RUN SUGGESTS
THAT A REINTESIFICATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AM INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF STRONGER FGEN TRANSVERSES THE AREA. HIRES
CAM MODELS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP ON THIS AS WELL. WILL MONITOR
THIS THROUGH REST OF SHIFT TO DETERMINE IF LIKELYS ARE NEEDED.
ANOTHER AREA OF QPF LOOKS TO FORM AHEAD OF THIS FGEN BAND ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY OVER BUREAU
AND PUTNAM COUNTY. THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL...SO THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE POP FIELDS. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT ALL RAIN AT
THIS TIME WITH QPF AROUND 0.10 INCHES. TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP INTO THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
WELL ADVERTISED POTENTIAL WINTER STORM EARLY IN THE WEEK CONTINUES
TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS. OVERALL...THE NORTHWARD DRIFT EXHIBITED OVER
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS CONTINUED IN THE 00Z RUNS...LEADING TO A LESSER
LIKELIHOOD OF HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...OUR FAR NORTHERN IA COUNTIES
REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CONSENSUS AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW AXIS SHOWN
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR THAT AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE MODEL TRENDS OF THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS CONTINUED FOR 00Z/31 WITH
THE GFS STICKING TO THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WITH FASTER SYSTEM
PROGRESSION. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY MIDDLE OF THE ROAD...SLIGHTLY
SLOWER ECMWF AND THEN MORE SOUTHERLY NAM AND CANADIAN/GEM. WHILE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS STILL MODEST TO LOW DUE TO THE UPPER JET AND
TROUGH AXIS STILL OFF THE COAST AND NOT EXPECTED TO BE WELL SAMPLED
UNTIL LATER TODAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH OF A TREND WITH THE
MOST CONSISTENT GFS AND ECMWF BLENDS AND SREF TO SUPPORT A 50
PERCENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL POTENTIAL FOR 6 TO POSSIBLY 8 INCHES OF
SNOW NW OF A CID TO DBQ LINE WHERE A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ALL SUGGEST THE HEAVIEST
SNOW WILL BE DURING THE TUE MORNING PERIOD...WHERE THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR 6 PLUS INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NE IA. WHILE WINDS
WILL RAMP UP FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW TO N-NW AT
LEAST 20 TO 30 MPH BY TUE NIGHT...STRONGER WINDS AND THE NEEDED
SUPPORT OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND ARCTIC AIR IS LACKING WITH THIS
SYSTEM. 00Z ANALYSIS SHOWED 850 MB TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO C OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH NO SUBZERO TEMPERATURES SEEN AT THE SURFACE
OVER THE SAME REGION TONIGHT. WILL THUS HOLD OFF ON ADVERTISING
BLIZZARD TYPE WORDING AND ONLY MENTION PATCHY BLOWING SNOW DUE TO
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES DURING THE MOST OF THE EVENT THAT
WILL BE NON- CONDUCIVE TO CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW.
FURTHER SOUTH...THE NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THERMAL FIELDS WILL
LIKELY SEND THE RAIN/SNOW LINE MUCH FURTHER NORTH...LEADING TO
MAINLY A RAIN EVENT FOR THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
QPF OF A HALF INCH OR MORE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BEFORE A DRY SLOT
MOVES IN NEARLY ENDING THE PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON.
BLENDED APPROACH WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTH...WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD POTENTIALLY SURGE INTO THE LOWER
50S IF THE GFS TRACK VERIFIES. OVERNIGHT...COLDER AIR WRAPPING
AROUND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM SHOULD CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO
ALL SNOW...AND THIS IS WHERE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY
OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WED THROUGH SAT...THE FORECAST MAINTAINS A COLD AND MAINLY DRY
STRETCH WITH SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
IMPACTING MAINLY AREAS TO THE NORTH. HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS MAY BE TOO WARM DEPENDING ON THE
DEPTH AND COVERAGE OF NEW SNOWFALL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS AM WILL TURN
BACK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN RAIN HITTING THE TAF SITES DIRECTLY SO DECIDED TO
KEEP IN THE VCSH MENTION. WILL PUT IN -RA WHEN TIMING BECOMES
CLEARER. OTHERWISE WIND SHIFT WITH FROPA TODAY AND MVFR ARE THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JONES-LINN.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
531 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
...12Z AVIATION UPDATE...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
EARLY THIS MORNING A SFC BOUNDARY LAY ACROSS THE CWA. THIS PSEUDO
WARM FRONT/INVERTED TROF EXTENDED FROM A SFC LOW LOCATED OVER SE
KS AND W MO. LIGHT SPRINKLES AND EVEN SOME RAIN HAD BEEN REPORTED
EARLIER WITH A FGEN BAND AS IT ADVECTED NORTH THROUGH THE CWA.
THIS LOW AND ATTENDANT BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA AS A COLD FRONT AND LEAD TO LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE COVERAGE OF POPS
TODAY WITH A POST FRONT FGEN BAND AND AN ADVANCING SFC LOW THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND WILL RESULT IN RAIN FALLING ACROSS
THE AREA. MOST OF THIS RAIN SHOULD FALL ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ZONES...AIDING IN MELTING REMAINING SNOW.
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE HINTING AT TWO AREAS OF QPF THAT WILL
AFFECT THE AREA THIS AM AND THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LOOKS
LIKE THE SPECTRAL...GRIDDED AND CAM MODELS ALL SUGGEST QPF WITH A
POST FRONTAL FGEN BAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. RECENT RADAR
TRENDS ACROSS E NE AND W IA SUGGEST THAT I80 NORTH HAS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR POPS FROM THIS BAND. DECIDED TO GO HIGH END CHC POPS
FOR THIS AS CONVERGENCE AND OVERALL FORCING WILL BE WEAKENING AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...RECENT RAP RUN SUGGESTS
THAT A REINTESIFICATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AM INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF STRONGER FGEN TRANSVERSES THE AREA. HIRES
CAM MODELS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP ON THIS AS WELL. WILL MONITOR
THIS THROUGH REST OF SHIFT TO DETERMINE IF LIKELYS ARE NEEDED.
ANOTHER AREA OF QPF LOOKS TO FORM AHEAD OF THIS FGEN BAND ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY OVER BUREAU
AND PUTNAM COUNTY. THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL...SO THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE POP FIELDS. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT ALL RAIN AT
THIS TIME WITH QPF AROUND 0.10 INCHES. TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP INTO THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
WELL ADVERTISED POTENTIAL WINTER STORM EARLY IN THE WEEK CONTINUES
TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS. OVERALL...THE NORTHWARD DRIFT EXHIBITED OVER
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS CONTINUED IN THE 00Z RUNS...LEADING TO A LESSER
LIKELIHOOD OF HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...OUR FAR NORTHERN IA COUNTIES
REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CONSENSUS AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW AXIS SHOWN
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR THAT AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE MODEL TRENDS OF THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS CONTINUED FOR 00Z/31 WITH
THE GFS STICKING TO THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WITH FASTER SYSTEM
PROGRESSION. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY MIDDLE OF THE ROAD...SLIGHTLY
SLOWER ECMWF AND THEN MORE SOUTHERLY NAM AND CANADIAN/GEM. WHILE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS STILL MODEST TO LOW DUE TO THE UPPER JET AND
TROUGH AXIS STILL OFF THE COAST AND NOT EXPECTED TO BE WELL SAMPLED
UNTIL LATER TODAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH OF A TREND WITH THE
MOST CONSISTENT GFS AND ECMWF BLENDS AND SREF TO SUPPORT A 50
PERCENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL POTENTIAL FOR 6 TO POSSIBLY 8 INCHES OF
SNOW NW OF A CID TO DBQ LINE WHERE A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ALL SUGGEST THE HEAVIEST
SNOW WILL BE DURING THE TUE MORNING PERIOD...WHERE THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR 6 PLUS INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NE IA. WHILE WINDS
WILL RAMP UP FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW TO N-NW AT
LEAST 20 TO 30 MPH BY TUE NIGHT...STRONGER WINDS AND THE NEEDED
SUPPORT OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND ARCTIC AIR IS LACKING WITH THIS
SYSTEM. 00Z ANALYSIS SHOWED 850 MB TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO C OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH NO SUBZERO TEMPERATURES SEEN AT THE SURFACE
OVER THE SAME REGION TONIGHT. WILL THUS HOLD OFF ON ADVERTISING
BLIZZARD TYPE WORDING AND ONLY MENTION PATCHY BLOWING SNOW DUE TO
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES DURING THE MOST OF THE EVENT THAT
WILL BE NON- CONDUCIVE TO CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW.
FURTHER SOUTH...THE NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THERMAL FIELDS WILL
LIKELY SEND THE RAIN/SNOW LINE MUCH FURTHER NORTH...LEADING TO
MAINLY A RAIN EVENT FOR THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
QPF OF A HALF INCH OR MORE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BEFORE A DRY SLOT
MOVES IN NEARLY ENDING THE PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON.
BLENDED APPROACH WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTH...WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD POTENTIALLY SURGE INTO THE LOWER
50S IF THE GFS TRACK VERIFIES. OVERNIGHT...COLDER AIR WRAPPING
AROUND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM SHOULD CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO
ALL SNOW...AND THIS IS WHERE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY
OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WED THROUGH SAT...THE FORECAST MAINTAINS A COLD AND MAINLY DRY
STRETCH WITH SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
IMPACTING MAINLY AREAS TO THE NORTH. HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS MAY BE TOO WARM DEPENDING ON THE
DEPTH AND COVERAGE OF NEW SNOWFALL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS AM WILL TURN
BACK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN RAIN HITTING THE TAF SITES DIRECTLY SO DECIDED TO
KEEP IN THE VCSH MENTION. WILL PUT IN -RA WHEN TIMING BECOMES
CLEARER. OTHERWISE WIND SHIFT WITH FROPA TODAY AND MVFR ARE THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JONES-LINN.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
311 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
EARLY THIS MORNING A SFC BOUNDARY LAY ACROSS THE CWA. THIS PSEUDO
WARM FRONT/INVERTED TROF EXTENDED FROM A SFC LOW LOCATED OVER SE
KS AND W MO. LIGHT SPRINKLES AND EVEN SOME RAIN HAD BEEN REPORTED
EARLIER WITH A FGEN BAND AS IT ADVECTED NORTH THROUGH THE CWA.
THIS LOW AND ATTENDANT BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA AS A COLD FRONT AND LEAD TO LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE COVERAGE OF POPS
TODAY WITH A POST FRONT FGEN BAND AND AN ADVANCING SFC LOW THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND WILL RESULT IN RAIN FALLING ACROSS
THE AREA. MOST OF THIS RAIN SHOULD FALL ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ZONES...AIDING IN MELTING REMAINING SNOW.
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE HINTING AT TWO AREAS OF QPF THAT WILL
AFFECT THE AREA THIS AM AND THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LOOKS
LIKE THE SPECTRAL...GRIDDED AND CAM MODELS ALL SUGGEST QPF WITH A
POST FRONTAL FGEN BAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. RECENT RADAR
TRENDS ACROSS E NE AND W IA SUGGEST THAT I80 NORTH HAS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR POPS FROM THIS BAND. DECIDED TO GO HIGH END CHC POPS
FOR THIS AS CONVERGENCE AND OVERALL FORCING WILL BE WEAKENING AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...RECENT RAP RUN SUGGESTS
THAT A REINTESIFICATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AM INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF STRONGER FGEN TRANSVERSES THE AREA. HIRES
CAM MODELS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP ON THIS AS WELL. WILL MONITOR
THIS THROUGH REST OF SHIFT TO DETERMINE IF LIKELYS ARE NEEDED.
ANOTHER AREA OF QPF LOOKS TO FORM AHEAD OF THIS FGEN BAND ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY OVER BUREAU
AND PUTNAM COUNTY. THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL...SO THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE POP FIELDS. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT ALL RAIN AT
THIS TIME WITH QPF AROUND 0.10 INCHES. TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP INTO THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
WELL ADVERTISED POTENTIAL WINTER STORM EARLY IN THE WEEK CONTINUES
TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS. OVERALL...THE NORTHWARD DRIFT EXHIBITED OVER
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS CONTINUED IN THE 00Z RUNS...LEADING TO A LESSER
LIKELIHOOD OF HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...OUR FAR NORTHERN IA COUNTIES
REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CONSENSUS AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW AXIS SHOWN
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR THAT AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE MODEL TRENDS OF THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS CONTINUED FOR 00Z/31 WITH
THE GFS STICKING TO THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WITH FASTER SYSTEM
PROGRESSION. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY MIDDLE OF THE ROAD...SLIGHTLY
SLOWER ECMWF AND THEN MORE SOUTHERLY NAM AND CANADIAN/GEM. WHILE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS STILL MODEST TO LOW DUE TO THE UPPER JET AND
TROUGH AXIS STILL OFF THE COAST AND NOT EXPECTED TO BE WELL SAMPLED
UNTIL LATER TODAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH OF A TREND WITH THE
MOST CONSISTENT GFS AND ECMWF BLENDS AND SREF TO SUPPORT A 50
PERCENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL POTENTIAL FOR 6 TO POSSIBLY 8 INCHES OF
SNOW NW OF A CID TO DBQ LINE WHERE A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ALL SUGGEST THE HEAVIEST
SNOW WILL BE DURING THE TUE MORNING PERIOD...WHERE THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR 6 PLUS INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NE IA. WHILE WINDS
WILL RAMP UP FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW TO N-NW AT
LEAST 20 TO 30 MPH BY TUE NIGHT...STRONGER WINDS AND THE NEEDED
SUPPORT OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND ARCTIC AIR IS LACKING WITH THIS
SYSTEM. 00Z ANALYSIS SHOWED 850 MB TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO C OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH NO SUBZERO TEMPERATURES SEEN AT THE SURFACE
OVER THE SAME REGION TONIGHT. WILL THUS HOLD OFF ON ADVERTISING
BLIZZARD TYPE WORDING AND ONLY MENTION PATCHY BLOWING SNOW DUE TO
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES DURING THE MOST OF THE EVENT THAT
WILL BE NON- CONDUCIVE TO CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW.
FURTHER SOUTH...THE NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THERMAL FIELDS WILL
LIKELY SEND THE RAIN/SNOW LINE MUCH FURTHER NORTH...LEADING TO
MAINLY A RAIN EVENT FOR THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
QPF OF A HALF INCH OR MORE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BEFORE A DRY SLOT
MOVES IN NEARLY ENDING THE PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON.
BLENDED APPROACH WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTH...WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD POTENTIALLY SURGE INTO THE LOWER
50S IF THE GFS TRACK VERIFIES. OVERNIGHT...COLDER AIR WRAPPING
AROUND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM SHOULD CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO
ALL SNOW...AND THIS IS WHERE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY
OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WED THROUGH SAT...THE FORECAST MAINTAINS A COLD AND MAINLY DRY
STRETCH WITH SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
IMPACTING MAINLY AREAS TO THE NORTH. HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS MAY BE TOO WARM DEPENDING ON THE
DEPTH AND COVERAGE OF NEW SNOWFALL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA AND DRAG A COLD
FRONT THROUGH ALL OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING SUNDAY. LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND BEHIND THIS FRONT...AND MAY BRING VERY
LIGHT RAIN TO AIRPORTS...CAPABLE OF WETTING SURFACES...BUT
VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 5 MILES. CIGS WILL BE VFR THROUGH
MID MORNING THEN GRADUALLY FALL TO MVFR...AROUND 1500 TO 2500 FT
FOR A PERIOD OF SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...DRY AIR WILL SWEEP IN BEHIND THE FRONT...LIFTING AND
CLEARING CIGS TO BE VFR.
ERVIN
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JONES-LINN.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...ERVIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
725 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 715 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016
UPDATED TEMP/DEWPOINT/WIND GRIDS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MAIN
CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE THE WINDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH EXPECTED...STRONGEST TOMORROW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF SLOWLY DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM.
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO NEAR TRINIDAD. 00Z NAM/RUC AND 21Z SREF SHOW
THE LOW MOVING TOWARD DODGE CITY/GARDEN CITY AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY
THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD OMAHA BY THE END OF THE DAY.
ABOVE MENTIONED 00Z AND 21Z MODELS ARE SHOWING 24 HOUR SNOWFALL
TOTALS FROM 00Z THIS EVENING THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY NEARLY TWICE AS
MUCH AS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. ADD THE STRONG WINDS TO THE EXPECTED
SNOW AND WE GET THE POSSIBILITY OF VISIBILITIES (PER RAP AND NAM)
NEAR ONE QUARTER MILE IN THE 11Z-13Z TIMEFRAME PLUS OR MINUS A FEW
HOURS.
BOTTOM LINE...THE HEAVIEST OF THE SNOW AND THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE STILL ON THEIR WAY. WILL RE-EVALUATE SNOWFALL TOTALS AFTER
03Z RUC/HRRR COMES IN AND COORDINATE WITH OVERNIGHT FORECASTER
ABOUT POSSIBLE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE AMOUNTS EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 104 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016
TONIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...
ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDY SKIES ABOUND FOR
THE AREA WITH A PERSISTENT ESE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE
CURRENT WIND REGIME IS THE RESULT OF THE LITTLE TO LACK OF MOVEMENT
OF THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WINTER EVENT. THIS IS
ALLOWING A WIDE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FOR THE AREA FROM THE U20S/L30S
IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WHILE THE EASTERN HALF IS SEEING
MOSTLY M30S TO L40S.
REGIONAL RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW PRECIP MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM. THE TEMP CHANGES ARE
ALLOWING FOR RAIN TO MIX INTO THE EASTERN AREA WITH SNOW...BUT
GIVING ALL SNOW WEST.
GOING INTO TONIGHT...DESPITE THE LACK OF MOVEMENT WITH THIS STORM
FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS...STILL EXPECT THE WAVE OF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW TO GIVE THE AREA A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION BEFORE STEADY SNOWFALL ARRIVES OVERNIGHT. WITH CURRENT
TRACK REMAINING VERY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...HAVE NOT CHANGED
CURRENT WARNINGS AMOUNTS.
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO TUESDAY MORNING IS STILL EXPECTED TO SEE
THE BULK OF THE WARNING SNOWS BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. LINGERING -SW/CLOUDS STILL
POSSIBLE FOR MOST LOCALES TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IS DEPENDENT ON SPEED
OF SYSTEM WHEN IT ENTERS THE PLAINS SPHERE OF INFLUENCE.
THE OTHER MENTIONED FACTOR IN PLAY IN TANDEM WITH THE EXPECTED
SNOWFALL WILL BE THE STRONG EAST/NORTH GRADIENT WINDS. WITH THE
CURRENT ESE FLOW EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE NNE AS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES...DO EXPECT STEADY 20-30 WITH GUSTS TO
40 MPH. BLOWING SNOW CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RESULT...WHICH ALSO MAY
CREATE NEAR-BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
FOR TEMPS...LOOKING FOR A SLOW DROP INTO THE 20S FOR ALL AREAS
TONIGHT...WHICH IS GOING TO BE ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO LACK OF STRONG
CAA NOT ARRIVING UNTIL TOMORROW AS WINDS GO MOSTLY NORTHERLY. LITTLE
REBOUND GOING INTO TUESDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING MID/UPPER 0S
AT BEST. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...SINGLE NUMBERS TO LOW TEENS ON TAP FOR
THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 104 PM MST MON
FEB 1 2016
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SNOW TO THE TRI STATE AREA
WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
THE TROUGH BASE POSITIONED OVER EASTERN KANSAS WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE PLACED OVER THE WESTERN COAST. AS A RESULT OF THE TROUGH
PASSAGE AND THE RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST OF THE TRI STATE
AREA...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO BREAK TOWARDS WEDNESDAY EVENING AS MORE STABLE
AIR WITH AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY...SO DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WIND CHILLS
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
NEARING ZERO AND WIND CHILL READINGS AS LOW AS 17-18 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN
COLORADO.
THE NEXT POSSIBLE WEATHER MAKER WILL BE FRIDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE DIMINISHES AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE COLORADO
FRONT RANGE. MODEL FORECASTS IN GENERAL HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH POSITIONED ALONG THE COLORADO
FRONT RANGE. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE LIFT AND STRONGER JET STREAM WILL
BE POSITIONED WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WITH THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...MAINLY FOR EASTERN COLORADO.
THEREFORE...KEPT SOME SLIGHT SILENT POPS IN EASTERN COLORADO FOR
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MID DAY FRIDAY.
A SLIGHT WARM UP WILL OCCUR FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING INTO THE LOWER 40S...WHICH IS ABOUT NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER TROUGH LOOKS TO EMERGE OUT OF WESTERN CANADA
AND SLIDE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE ROCKIES TOWARDS THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT FORECAST MODELS HAVE NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 415 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016
FOR KGLD AND KMCK...A WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS
THROUGH THE PERIOD BRINGING IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. WINDS BEGIN THE PERIOD
FROM THE EAST GUSTING 25 TO 30KTS...SLOWLY BACKING TO THE
NORTHEAST AROUND 6Z...NORTH BY 10Z...AND NORTHWEST BY 17Z. WIND
GUSTS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY COULD APPROACH 40KTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ090>092.
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
538 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 250 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
The incoming storm system is, more or less, evolving as advertised
this Monday afternoon. Surface cyclogenesis is ongoing while a broad
but so far loosely organized precipitation shield is overspreading
much of western Kansas, Colorado, and into Nebraska. In the local
area, light rain will be possible into early evening as these weak
impulses move across the region with areas of light precipitation.
This may mix with periods of snow mainly in/near Republic county but
accumulation should be pretty much 0 through 9 PM or so.
The main precipitation shield will move out of central Kansas and
across the local area between roughly 10 PM and 6 AM. Expect to see
embedded thunderstorms within this area of moderate rain, with an
isolated lightning strike or two not out of the question even within
the snow area. Instability is not particularly strong and the storms
will be mainly elevated, but with the very strong winds just above
the surface, there is a small chance for a few downdrafts to bring
some locally stronger winds down to the surface. Within the rain
area, expect generally from 0.50 to 1 inch of rain.
The snow forecast remains quite difficult even only a few hours in
advance of the storm. And really, the only reason it remains
difficult is because the rain/snow cutoff line continues to
fluctuate slightly regarding the location of what should be a very
sharp gradient in snow amounts. Additionally, warm ground
temperatures and even warm air temperatures during snowfall will
induce a bit of melting and compacting more than normal. At the same
time, when the snow does begin, the rates should be extremely heavy
with convective snowfall initially and transitioning to more of a
frontogenesis and dynamics-driven snowfall which should still see
moderate rates. Would not be surprised to see snowfall rates exceed
2" per hour for a couple of hours within the heavy snow area. Models
remain in fairly good agreement in terms of where the snow/rain
cutoff will be throughout the night, but still with enough of a N/S
variation to keep question marks in the snow total forecast. High-
Res guidance such as the HRRR and RAP seem to be initializing a bit
warm but still get cold enough in far northwest parts of the CWA
during the heavy precip period to support heavy snow accumulation.
Still looking for the winter-storm-type accumulation amounts near
and north of the Concordia to Washington line, with sharply lower
amounts south of that line.
There appears to be a high likelihood that the dry slot will
overspread the majority of the forecast area during the day on
Tuesday, although again with a rather sharp dry-to-snow cutoff in
the far northwest corner of the forecast area so some additional
snow will remain possible during the morning within the warned area.
Then during the afternoon or early evening, a vort max will wrap
around the main system and may support another quick shot of light
snow on the order of an inch or more, mainly in areas north of I-70.
Winds will continue to be an issue for any areas that experience
heavy snow as there will be some reduced visibility and drifting.
Should note though that the winds appear to have a lull on Tuesday
as the center of the surface low moves overhead.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
No major changes needed in the extended as upper wave pattern favors
a dry northwest flow with upper troughs passing to the northeast and
southwest of the CWA. Northwest winds are initially gusty behind the
departing wave Wednesday morning, before gradually diminishing to
around 10 mph at sunset. Cold air advecting from the snow pack in
Nebraska was shown in decent agreement with respect to temperatures
on Wednesday and Thursday with readings in the 30s and overnight
lows in the teens and 20s. Southerly winds return Thursday onward
with mostly sunny skies return and highs rebound to the upper 40s
through the weekend. Next cold front and potential system arrives by
Monday with much uncertainty in guidance on any available
moisture.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday)
Issued at 538 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
Deteriorating conditions will occur overnight as rain moves in
from the south. Have trended a little slower with the onset of
prevailing rain in line with the HRRR/RAP/NAM. Also instability is
rather weak over eastern KS. There probably will be some thunder
but it is unlikely there will be several continuous hours of
thunder, so think a TEMPO group should handle this a little
better. With the dry aloft working its way through eastern KS
Tuesday, there should be a period of VFR conditions for TOP and
FOE. MHK may be a little harder to scatter out as the surface low
tracks nearby. If the low passes to the west of MHK, then it
probably will scatter out. At least MVFR conditions are likely to
move back with the wrap around moisture on the back side of the
system towards the end of the forecast period.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM Tuesday to midnight CST
Tuesday night for KSZ010-011-021-022-034.
Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to midnight CST
Tuesday night for KSZ008-009-020.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
517 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
A few items of concern within the next 24 hours. 1) snow, 2) thunderstorms,
3) wind. An upper level low will swing on in from the southwest through
the overnight. Considerable upslope is expected on the north side of
the synoptic disturbance. This region is generally across northwest
and north-central Kansas. For snow amounts, have the highest snow amounts
from Scott City to WaKeeney. 6-8" will be possible in this area. The
ECMWF shows slightly higher amounts, however, the mesoscale models are
lower as a result of low to mid level dry air advecting in. To the south
and southeast, have a wide area of advisory amounts (2-5") from Johnson
to Jetmore to Ash Valley and points northwest. Focusing farther south,
a modified warm sector will spread northward on the south side of the
low. HRRR and to a lesser extent the NAM show some MUCAPE forming. Low
level clouds have hung around across the OK/TX panhandles, but there
is some clearing this early afternoon. Models show -28C 500-hPa temperatures,
so I do think some MUCAPE can be realized if clearing/warming continues.
Forecast soundings are very impressive in terms of wind shear and kinematics.
Soundings support low topped convection. The HRRR is also showing some
updraft helicity, so there was a very slight concern for a brief spin
up tornado. Elkhart looks the most interesting in terms of any "spring-
like" convection. MUCAPE is weak, so this would be the main limiting
factor. Some of the other models like the ARW show somewhat of a line
developing across the Panhandles, so this might miss us, but still reasonably
confident there will be at least some thunderstorms around far southwest
Kansas this evening. Lastly, this system is forecast to be closed off
as it ejects across western Kansas. 850-hPa winds of 30-40 kt will spell
out the concern for windy conditions tomorrow morning. This will create
wind chills in the 5 to 15F range. Beyond tomorrow, the synoptic low
moves off to the northeast and weak high pressure with some downslope
moves in. Temperatures will rebound through the end of the business
week with 40s returning, except lower temps over the snow pack. Another
low may approach the region next Saturday, however, the main dynamics
look to be too far away from southwest Kansas. There might be a cooling
trend next week as the longwave trough amplifies and caa could develop
across the Central Plains.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Tuesday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
Low level stratus developing within an easterly upslope flow across
northwest and west central Kansas will edge slowly eastward this
evening bringing the possibility for MVFR cigs to the vicinity of
all TAF sites. Areas of light to moderate rain may develop across
portions of southwest and central Kansas later this evening as well
potentially lowering vsbys to MVFR as well. The stratus deck will
continue to lower overnight resulting in IFR cigs at KGCK, KHYS,
and possibly KDDC during the early morning hours. Snow may begin
to mix with any rain present late tonight lowering vsbys to IFR
generally north and west of KDDC, particularly as strong north to
northwest winds develop. Blowing snow conditions are possible at
KHYS and KGCK toward daybreak and on through early Tuesday
afternoon.
Strong easterly winds around 20 to 30kt will persist across
central and portions of southwest Kansas this evening as a surface
low in the Texas Panhandle edges slowly eastward into northwest
Oklahoma. Gusty north to northwest winds in excess of 25 to 35kt
will develop early to mid Tuesday morning as the deepening
surface low begins to lift northeast into south central Kansas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 29 32 15 35 / 80 20 0 0
GCK 26 29 12 33 / 90 40 0 0
EHA 23 30 14 35 / 90 20 0 0
LBL 26 31 16 37 / 90 20 0 0
HYS 30 31 12 31 / 90 60 10 0
P28 35 39 19 38 / 60 20 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Tuesday for
KSZ046-061>065-074>077.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Tuesday for KSZ030-031-
043>045.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Sugden
AVIATION...JJohnson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1124 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
Recent water vapor imagery showing a few weak upper waves moving
east through the Central Plains in rather quick flow, with stronger
ones over eastern Nebraska and western Kansas early this morning.
Light precip has resulted ahead of the Nebraska wave, with slightly
increasing returns on area radars ahead of the Kansas wave. Cold
front associated with these waves was through the western half of
the CWA at 09Z.
Last few runs of the HRRR showing a continued increase in activity
in the local area through the mid morning hours with eventually some
light amounts reaching the ground in northeast Kansas where moisture
is marginally better so have little reason to remove the small POPS
here. Cold air advection backs off through the day but highs will
still be several degrees below Saturday`s. Weak ridging builds in
aloft ahead of the main upper wave tonight, with a resulting band of
modest frontogenesis developing aloft. Moisture quality in the low
levels will likely remain too low for any measurable precip through
the night however. Went on the warm side of most guidance for lows
with high cloud in place.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 343 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
Main portion of medium period forecast is the potent winter storm
system that will affect the Central Plains and specifically north
central and northeast Kansas Monday evening through Tuesday night.
The storm system was still off in the eastern Pacific this morning
and should move on shore later this afternoon or early evening. The
latest trends continue a slight northwestward track while the NAM
the outlier and furthest to the southeast. Even with this slight
change on track the area will still be impacted with hazardous
winter weather. Thermal profiles support all rain across much of the
area Monday afternoon with a mix of rain and snow in the north
central counties. Colder air deepens through the column in the
evening with a change over to snow, but areas of east central and
northeast Kansas will continue with mainly rain through the night.
Mid level frontogenesis sets up across the northern counties Monday
night through Tuesday. Cross sections show some periods of CSI and
CI across the area Monday night and Tuesday leading to enhanced
snowfall rates. The influence of the upper jet and diffluent flow
ahead of the approaching wave will enhance upward vertical motion
across the area. Periods of heavy snow are expected Monday night and
Tuesday for much of north central and far northeast Kansas. Again a
quick drop off from a lot of snow to little or no snow is expected
and at this time its still to early to nail this area down.
Generally kept the configuration of the winter storm watch counties
the same as previous forecast where highest confidence is for
significant winter weather at this time. Across the east central
counties mainly rain is expected with this evening with some light
snow on the back side of the system Tuesday afternoon. Transition
area will lay along and west of a Emporia to Topeka line Tuesday
morning before changing over to all snow in the afternoon. Strong
northeast to north winds on the backside of the surface low will
cause considerable blow and drifting of snow and near zero
visibilities at times. The systems moves northeast Tuesday night
however the deformation zone/TROWAL will extend southwest into the
CWA Tuesday evening with continued snowfall.
Another upper trough moves through the Plains Wednesday night and
Thursday, but with little moisture have maintained a dry forecast.
Northwest flow transitions to zonal Thursday with another trough
moving across the Plains Friday with no precipitation expected.
Temperatures will be cooler than normal for the last half of the
week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1114 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
Expecting VFR conditions to hold for the forecast period while a
low pressure system organizes over the central rockies late in the
period. While timing of CIGS building will vary a bit, generally
expect that CIGS will lower and increase in coverage by the end of
the period. Winds this afternoon will weaken around sunset as
mixing decreases. Winds pick up during Monday morning as the
pressure gradient begins to tighten. Precip should hold off this
period, so have not added any light precip mention at this time.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Storm Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday evening
for KSZ008>012-020>023-034.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Drake
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
517 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
Recent water vapor imagery showing a few weak upper waves moving
east through the Central Plains in rather quick flow, with stronger
ones over eastern Nebraska and western Kansas early this morning.
Light precip has resulted ahead of the Nebraska wave, with slightly
increasing returns on area radars ahead of the Kansas wave. Cold
front associated with these waves was through the western half of
the CWA at 09Z.
Last few runs of the HRRR showing a continued increase in activity
in the local area through the mid morning hours with eventually some
light amounts reaching the ground in northeast Kansas where moisture
is marginally better so have little reason to remove the small POPS
here. Cold air advection backs off through the day but highs will
still be several degrees below Saturday`s. Weak ridging builds in
aloft ahead of the main upper wave tonight, with a resulting band of
modest frontogenesis developing aloft. Moisture quality in the low
levels will likely remain too low for any measurable precip through
the night however. Went on the warm side of most guidance for lows
with high cloud in place.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 343 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
Main portion of medium period forecast is the potent winter storm
system that will affect the Central Plains and specifically north
central and northeast Kansas Monday evening through Tuesday night.
The storm system was still off in the eastern Pacific this morning
and should move on shore later this afternoon or early evening. The
latest trends continue a slight northwestward track while the NAM
the outlier and furthest to the southeast. Even with this slight
change on track the area will still be impacted with hazardous
winter weather. Thermal profiles support all rain across much of the
area Monday afternoon with a mix of rain and snow in the north
central counties. Colder air deepens through the column in the
evening with a change over to snow, but areas of east central and
northeast Kansas will continue with mainly rain through the night.
Mid level frontogenesis sets up across the northern counties Monday
night through Tuesday. Cross sections show some periods of CSI and
CI across the area Monday night and Tuesday leading to enhanced
snowfall rates. The influence of the upper jet and difuent flow
ahead of the approaching wave will enhance upward vertical motion
across the area. Periods of heavy snow are expected Monday night and
Tuesday for much of north central and far northeast Kansas. Again a
quick drop off from a lot of snow to little or no snow is expected
and at this time its still to early to nail this area down.
Generally kept the configuration of the winter storm watch counties
the same as previous forecast where highest confidence is for
significant winter weather at this time. Across the east central
counties mainly rain is expected with this evening with some light
snow on the back side of the system Tuesday afternoon. Transition
area will lay along and west of a Emporia to Topeka line Tuesday
morning before changing over to all snow in the afternoon. Strong
northeast to north winds on the backside of the surface low will
cause considerable blow and drifting of snow and near zero
visibilities at times. The systems moves northeast Tuesday night
however the deformation zone/TROWAL will extend southwest into the
CWA Tuesday evening with continued snowfall.
Another upper trough moves through the Plains Wednesday night and
Thursday, but with little moisture have maintained a dry forecast.
Northwest flow transitions to zonal Thursday with another trough
moving across the Plains Friday with no precipitation expected.
Temperatures will be cooler than normal for the last half of the
week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 517 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
Models continue to advertise some potential for brief MVFR
ceilings early in the forecast. There is however a wide range of
potential of where this should be, and so far neither surface
observations nor GOES-R have detected any where models suggest it
should be, so have too little confidence to maintain a mention.
Winds still on track to weaken toward 0Z with light east wind
developing near the end of this forecast.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Storm Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday evening
for KSZ008>012-020>023-034.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
343 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
Recent water vapor imagery showing a few weak upper waves moving
east through the Central Plains in rather quick flow, with stronger
ones over eastern Nebraska and western Kansas early this morning.
Light precip has resulted ahead of the Nebraska wave, with slightly
increasing returns on area radars ahead of the Kansas wave. Cold
front associated with these waves was through the western half of
the CWA at 09Z.
Last few runs of the HRRR showing a continued increase in activity
in the local area through the mid morning hours with eventually some
light amounts reaching the ground in northeast Kansas where moisture
is marginally better so have little reason to remove the small POPS
here. Cold air advection backs off through the day but highs will
still be several degrees below Saturday`s. Weak ridging builds in
aloft ahead of the main upper wave tonight, with a resulting band of
modest frontogenesis developing aloft. Moisture quality in the low
levels will likely remain too low for any measurable precip through
the night however. Went on the warm side of most guidance for lows
with high cloud in place.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 343 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
Main portion of medium period forecast is the potent winter storm
system that will affect the Central Plains and specifically north
central and northeast Kansas Monday evening through Tuesday night.
The storm system was still off in the eastern Pacific this morning
and should move on shore later this afternoon or early evening. The
latest trends continue a slight northwestward track while the NAM
the outlier and furthest to the southeast. Even with this slight
change on track the area will still be impacted with hazardous
winter weather. Thermal profiles support all rain across much of the
area Monday afternoon with a mix of rain and snow in the north
central counties. Colder air deepens through the column in the
evening with a change over to snow, but areas of east central and
northeast Kansas will continue with mainly rain through the night.
Mid level frontogenesis sets up across the northern counties Monday
night through Tuesday. Cross sections show some periods of CSI and
CI across the area Monday night and Tuesday leading to enhanced
snowfall rates. The influence of the upper jet and difuent flow
ahead of the approaching wave will enhance upward vertical motion
across the area. Periods of heavy snow are expected Monday night and
Tuesday for much of north central and far northeast Kansas. Again a
quick drop off from a lot of snow to little or no snow is expected
and at this time its still to early to nail this area down.
Generally kept the configuration of the winter storm watch counties
the same as previous forecast where highest confidence is for
significant winter weather at this time. Across the east central
counties mainly rain is expected with this evening with some light
snow on the back side of the system Tuesday afternoon. Transition
area will lay along and west of a Emporia to Topeka line Tuesday
morning before changing over to all snow in the afternoon. Strong
northeast to north winds on the backside of the surface low will
cause considerable blow and drifting of snow and near zero
visibilities at times. The systems moves northeast Tuesday night
however the deformation zone/TROWAL will extend southwest into the
CWA Tuesday evening with continued snowfall.
Another upper trough moves through the Plains Wednesday night and
Thursday, but with little moisture have maintained a dry forecast.
Northwest flow transitions to zonal Thursday with another trough
moving across the Plains Friday with no precipitation expected.
Temperatures will be cooler than normal for the last half of the
week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1057 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016
All guidance continues to keep any light precip to the north of
the terminals. There also remains a signal for a brief period of
MVFR CIGS Sunday morning. So in all there is little changed from
the prev forecast.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Storm Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday evening
for KSZ008>012-020>023-034.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
130 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 130 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT STRONG WIND GUSTS THAT
HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
BOTH THE HOURLY AND DAILY MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WERE ALSO
UPDATED PER THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING UP QUITE A BIT FASTER ACROSS THE
AREA THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...MUCH LIKE WE SAW YESTERDAY. A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS ALSO BEEN SENT OUT ADDRESSING THE
GUSTY WINDS...AND THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO UPDATED
TO REFLECT THE STRONG WIND GUSTS WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 752 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
LOW CLOUDS ARE MORE PREVALENT THAN WAS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...AND
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY BE GETTING SPARED OF
THE CLOUDS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WIND INFLUENCE. MODELS WERE NOT
HANDLING THE CLOUD COVER VERY WELL...WITH THE RUC PERHAPS DOING
THE BEST. WILL LOOK FOR THE CLOUDS TO BREAK UP BY MID DAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING IS LOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING AWAY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHILE LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
NATION TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS
BRINGING STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE...CARRYING IN MILDER
AIR. THIS WAS ALREADY BEING REALIZED IN PLACED WHICH WERE NOT
DECOUPLED FROM THE FLOW OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN
THE 50S. DECOUPLED VALLEYS WERE ABOUT 20 DEG COLDER...BUT WILL SEE
A RAPID WARM-UP DURING THE DAY AS MIXING TAKES PLACE.
AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH...ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
ADVECTED NORTHWARD ON ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THIS EVENTUALLY LEADS TO SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THEY WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE
FRONT ON MONDAY...AND A MODESTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
TO START THE PERIOD...EXPECT A WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TO EXIT EASTWARD AS IT RIDES ALONG LONGWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
TO THE CANADIAN EAST COAST...AND THE COLD FRONT WHICH IMPACTED
EASTERN KY WILL HAVE SHIFTED WELL EAST OF THE STATE. RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL THEREFORE BE ON A DIMINISHING TREND
AS DRIER AIR PULLS INTO THE REGION. STILL EXPECTING ALL RAIN TO
DIMINISH BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z TUESDAY.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A MORE CONCERNING FEATURE...A CLOSED 538MB
UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING EAST OF THE 4 CORNER STATES AS OF 0Z
TUESDAY. WHILE MODELS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT OFF ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THIS LOW...THEY ARE ALL AT LEAST IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
IT WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND FOLLOW A NORTHEAST TRACK INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS BY 0Z WEDNESDAY...AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS IT STARTS PHASING OUT. WHILE THE
FEATURE WILL NOT PASS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SPECIFICALLY...WE
WILL SEE QUICKLY DECLINING HEIGHTS AND A DEVELOPING STRONG SOUTHERN
STREAM JET STREAK...WHICH WILL PROVIDE A STRONG PULL OF WARM
MOISTURE AIR INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY TUESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A 996MB SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...STRENGTHENING TO 993MB AS ITS
MOVES NE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY
EVENING...AND THEN TO 990MB AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A POTENT COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS KY TUESDAY AFTERNOON /WESTERN
PORTION OF THE STATE/ THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
/EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE/. HOWEVER...EVEN AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL
FARTHER AWAY TO THE NORTH...LEAVING QUITE A DISTANCE BETWEEN EASTERN
KY AND THE CENTER OF THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...DYNAMICS ALONG THIS COLD
FRONT WILL BE STRONG...WITH HIGH MOISTURE...STRONG FRONTAL
LIFT...AND OVERALL INSTABILITY. THIS COUPLED WITH THE STRONG SHEER
FROM SOUTHERN STREAM JET STREAK...COULD MEAN THE MAKING FOR SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...HEAVY PRECIPITATING...AND ABUNDANT IN
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...AS THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSES
EASTWARD THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...KY WILL GET FARTHER AWAY
FROM THE LOW CENTER...LOSING SOME OF THE BEST DYNAMICS. FRONTAL LIFT
AND INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE DECENT ACROSS CENTRAL KY...AND THE
WIND SHEER WILL STILL BE NOTHING LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE...SO SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE QUESTION THEN TURNS
TO WHAT HAPPENS ACROSS EASTERN KY. MODELS ARE STILL SUPPORTING THE
CONTINUED REDUCTION IN CAPE AND INSTABILITY AS THE FRONT AND MAIN
PRECIP LINE MOVE INTO OUR REGION. WHILE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE...SUPPORT WILL NOT BE STRONG FOR SUSTAINED
DEVELOPMENT. SHEER WILL REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERN...LIKELY RESULTING
IN MORE OF A HSLC SCENARIO AS IT MOVES THROUGH OUR CWA. ANY BOWING
OF THE LIKELY QLCS LINE...ALONG WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS...OR EVEN
HEAVY SHOWERS...COULD BE ENOUGH TO TRANSLATE HIGH WINDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...TO
SAY THAT WE WILL SEE ANY SEVERE STORMS OR SEVERE STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS ACROSS EASTERN KY IS STILL ON THE LOW END OF CONFIDENCE.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
MAINLY WIND GUST CONCERNS IN THE WEATHER STORY AND THE HWO.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH EASTERN KY TUESDAY NIGHT...DRIER
COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN BEHIND DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...AS MUCH OF THE REGION REMAINS UNDER STRONG TROUGHING.
RAIN SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO FALL
TO CLOSER TO SEASONABLE NORMALS FOR THURSDAY AND INTO THE START OF
THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD TAKE HOLD THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY.&&
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 9Z ON
MONDAY. SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN LOWERING. WE CAN EXPECT
CIGS OF 3 TO 4K TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AROUND 0Z
TONIGHT...WITH THE CLOUDS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO IFR OR VLIFR BY
AROUND 9Z ON MONDAY. A LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING
THE TAF SITES BY AROUND 9Z AS WELL...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
752 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 752 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
LOW CLOUDS ARE MORE PREVALENT THAN WAS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...AND
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY BE GETTING SPARED OF
THE CLOUDS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WIND INFLUENCE. MODELS WERE NOT
HANDLING THE CLOUD COVER VERY WELL...WITH THE RUC PERHAPS DOING
THE BEST. WILL LOOK FOR THE CLOUDS TO BREAK UP BY MID DAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING IS LOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING AWAY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHILE LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
NATION TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS
BRINGING STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE...CARRYING IN MILDER
AIR. THIS WAS ALREADY BEING REALIZED IN PLACED WHICH WERE NOT
DECOUPLED FROM THE FLOW OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN
THE 50S. DECOUPLED VALLEYS WERE ABOUT 20 DEG COLDER...BUT WILL SEE
A RAPID WARM-UP DURING THE DAY AS MIXING TAKES PLACE.
AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH...ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
ADVECTED NORTHWARD ON ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THIS EVENTUALLY LEADS TO SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THEY WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE
FRONT ON MONDAY...AND A MODESTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
TO START THE PERIOD...EXPECT A WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TO EXIT EASTWARD AS IT RIDES ALONG LONGWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
TO THE CANADIAN EAST COAST...AND THE COLD FRONT WHICH IMPACTED
EASTERN KY WILL HAVE SHIFTED WELL EAST OF THE STATE. RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL THEREFORE BE ON A DIMINISHING TREND
AS DRIER AIR PULLS INTO THE REGION. STILL EXPECTING ALL RAIN TO
DIMINISH BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z TUESDAY.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A MORE CONCERNING FEATURE...A CLOSED 538MB
UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING EAST OF THE 4 CORNER STATES AS OF 0Z
TUESDAY. WHILE MODELS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT OFF ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THIS LOW...THEY ARE ALL AT LEAST IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
IT WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND FOLLOW A NORTHEAST TRACK INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS BY 0Z WEDNESDAY...AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS IT STARTS PHASING OUT. WHILE THE
FEATURE WILL NOT PASS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SPECIFICALLY...WE
WILL SEE QUICKLY DECLINING HEIGHTS AND A DEVELOPING STRONG SOUTHERN
STREAM JET STREAK...WHICH WILL PROVIDE A STRONG PULL OF WARM
MOISTURE AIR INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY TUESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A 996MB SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...STRENGTHENING TO 993MB AS ITS
MOVES NE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY
EVENING...AND THEN TO 990MB AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A POTENT COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS KY TUESDAY AFTERNOON /WESTERN
PORTION OF THE STATE/ THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
/EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE/. HOWEVER...EVEN AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL
FARTHER AWAY TO THE NORTH...LEAVING QUITE A DISTANCE BETWEEN EASTERN
KY AND THE CENTER OF THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...DYNAMICS ALONG THIS COLD
FRONT WILL BE STRONG...WITH HIGH MOISTURE...STRONG FRONTAL
LIFT...AND OVERALL INSTABILITY. THIS COUPLED WITH THE STRONG SHEER
FROM SOUTHERN STREAM JET STREAK...COULD MEAN THE MAKING FOR SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...HEAVY PRECIPITATING...AND ABUNDANT IN
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...AS THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSES
EASTWARD THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...KY WILL GET FARTHER AWAY
FROM THE LOW CENTER...LOSING SOME OF THE BEST DYNAMICS. FRONTAL LIFT
AND INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE DECENT ACROSS CENTRAL KY...AND THE
WIND SHEER WILL STILL BE NOTHING LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE...SO SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE QUESTION THEN TURNS
TO WHAT HAPPENS ACROSS EASTERN KY. MODELS ARE STILL SUPPORTING THE
CONTINUED REDUCTION IN CAPE AND INSTABILITY AS THE FRONT AND MAIN
PRECIP LINE MOVE INTO OUR REGION. WHILE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE...SUPPORT WILL NOT BE STRONG FOR SUSTAINED
DEVELOPMENT. SHEER WILL REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERN...LIKELY RESULTING
IN MORE OF A HSLC SCENARIO AS IT MOVES THROUGH OUR CWA. ANY BOWING
OF THE LIKELY QLCS LINE...ALONG WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS...OR EVEN
HEAVY SHOWERS...COULD BE ENOUGH TO TRANSLATE HIGH WINDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...TO
SAY THAT WE WILL SEE ANY SEVERE STORMS OR SEVERE STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS ACROSS EASTERN KY IS STILL ON THE LOW END OF CONFIDENCE.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
MAINLY WIND GUST CONCERNS IN THE WEATHER STORY AND THE HWO.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH EASTERN KY TUESDAY NIGHT...DRIER
COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN BEHIND DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...AS MUCH OF THE REGION REMAINS UNDER STRONG TROUGHING.
RAIN SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO FALL
TO CLOSER TO SEASONABLE NORMALS FOR THURSDAY AND INTO THE START OF
THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD TAKE HOLD THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY.&&
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 734 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
A CLOUD DECK FROM 2.5-3.5K FEET WAS OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE AREA
AT TAF ISSUANCE. THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE NEAR THE VA
BORDER WAS BEING SPARED DUE TO THE DRYING INFLUENCE OF DOWNSLOPING
WIND. MOST MODELS WERE NOT HANDLING THESE CLOUDS WELL. THE RUC
WAS PERHAPS THE BEST...AND IT WAS SUGGESTING THAT THE CLOUDS MAY
BREAK UP BY MID DAY...LEAVING VFR FOR THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH MOST PLACES
EXPECTED TO BE MVFR OR IFR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS
SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
STRONG WINDS WERE PRESENT JUST OFF THE SURFACE THIS MORNING...WITH
40-45 KTS AT ABOUT 2000 FT AGL. HAVE INCLUDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
IN THE TAFS UNTIL 14Z. DURING THE DAY MIXING IS EXPECTED TO DO
AWAY WITH SHEAR AND LEAD TO GUSTS TOPPING 20KTS IN MANY LOCATIONS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
516 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS. STRONG SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING ONSHORE OF CA WILL BE THE
FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR A GREAT LAKES WINTER STORM MID WEEK AS IT
TRACKS E...THEN NE. SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST IN SHORT TERM IS NOW
MOVING E ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. SOME LIGHT PCPN HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
ERN IA AND MAINLY THE SE HALF OF WI THIS AFTERNOON WITH THIS
FEATURE...AIDED BY UPR DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET NOW
MOVING INTO SRN QUEBEC.
SHORTWAVE OVER IA WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. IN TURN...ASSOC SFC WILL TRACK FROM SRN
LAKE MI TO NEAR THE GEORGIAN BAY THIS EVENING. DEEP LAYER FORCING
SPREADING INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE PER MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV AND 700-600 MB FGEN HAS HELPED
SUPPORT SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER SCNTRL AND SE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS
NOTED ON AREA WEBCAMS.
BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS AND 1000-850MB THICKNESS FIELD...ANY PCPN
OVER THE SE FCST AREA SHOULD TURN FROM RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX TO
MOSTLY SNOW BY THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVELS FINALLY BEGIN TO COOL. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION (A FEW TENTHS) DUE TO MIX OF
PCPN AND ABOVE FREEZING SFC TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN IF PCPN
CHANGES TO ALL SNOW.
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE FROM NEAR IA MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WHILE A SFC TROF DROPS S ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO MOST OF NRN
UPPER MI BY 12Z MON. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOISTURE DEPTH MAY NOT
BE SUFFICIENT TO REACH SUB -10C TEMPS CONSISTENTLY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EVENING. SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR -FZDZ AT THAT TIME IF
PCPN OCCURS. THE GENERAL LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING AND MARGINAL AT
BEST INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE SUGGESTS NOTHING MORE THAN 20-30 PCT
POPS FOR -SN/-FZDZ ARE WARRANTED NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. EXPECT
MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
MONDAY...WEAK WINDS AND SHEAR WITHIN CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN LIMIT POPS TO GENERALLY NO MORE
THAN 30 PCT FOR WNW SNOWBELTS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 20S NORTH TO LOWER 30S SOUTH CENTRAL UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST INTO CNTRL CONUS WILL
GIVE WAY TO RIDGING OVER WRN NOAM RESULTING IN NW FLOW INTO THE NRN
LAKES AND INTRUSIONS OF ARCTIC AIR INTO OR JUST TO THE NE OF THE
REGION. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE WINTER STORM MOVING OUT
OF THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUE INTO WED.
MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH SFC RIDGING
FROM SASK/MANITOBA THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. WNW 925-850 MB FLOW WITH
850 MB TEMPS AROUND -11C WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT LES.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS WERE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE WINTER STORM EMERGING FROM THE
PLAINS WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCSTS. ALTHOUGH THE GFS
REMAINED A BIT FARTHER N WITH THE PATH...OVERALL DIFFERENCES
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF/GEM OR DEPARTURE FROM GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS
RELATIVELY MINOR. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER
WITH THE SYSTEM.
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE PLAINS STRONG 700-300 MB
QVECTOR CONV AND 290K-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
HEAVY SNOW...ESPECIALLY FROM 21Z/02-06Z/03. QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 0.4
TO 0.7 INCH RANGE ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND 3 G/KG AVAILABLE. EVEN WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT ABOVE THE
DGZ...SLR VALUES IN THE 15/1-20/1 RANGE ARE EXPECTED LEADING TO 12-
18 HOUR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE CNTRL
CWA...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER THE S AND E. SINCE THE WRN CWA
FROM IWD TO CMX WILL BE ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE LARGE SYNOPTIC PCPN
AREA...CONFIDENCE IN REACHING WARNING AMOUNTS WAS LOWER.
ACCORDINGLY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVER THE WEST IS
ALSO LOWER...ESPECIALLY DURING THE PORTION OF THE EVEN WITH NE LOW
LEVEL FLOW. SO...THE WINTER STORM WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR BARAGA/IRON
COUNTIES EASTWARD. LAKE AND UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCEMENT WILL BE LIKELY
INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -10C BY 06Z/WED
WITH INCREASING NNE WINDS. SNOW TOTALS MAY EXCEED 12 INCHES IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF MARQUETTE. THE HEAVIER SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END
OVER THE SOUTH BY 12Z AND IN THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON AS THE SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE/LIFT DEPART BUT WITH THE WINDS...DRIVING WILLL STILL BE
DIFFICULT.
ALTHOUGH THE FCST WINDS ARE NOT EXTREMELY STRONG AND SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN PRREVIOUS FCSTS...CONSIDERABLE BLSN IS EXPECTED NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR AND S CNTRL FROM ESC-MNM.
THU-SUN...A FEW CLIPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES THAT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE CWA.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/POSITION OF THESE FEATURES AND
IMPACT ON LES. COLD ENOUGH AIR WILL PREVAIL FOR PERIODS OF LES FOR
MAINLY NW FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE GFS WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
BRINING COLD AIR INTO THE NRN LAKES BY NEXT WEEKEND COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. WITH
SOME INCREASE IN UPSLOPE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...CIGS SHOULD FALL TO THE LOWER MVFR RANGE...AND PERHAPS IFR
AT KIWD AND KSAW. THERE MAY BE SOME -SHSN AND POSSIBLY SOME -FZDZ AS
WELL...BUT ONLY MENTIONED THIS IN KCMX FCST FOR NOW AS NNW FLOW MORE
FAVORABLE THERE LATE TONIGHT FOR UPSLOPE PCPN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
ATTENTION DURING THIS FCST PERIOD WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE MIDWEEK
PORTION OF THE FCST AS LOW PRES TRACKS FROM THE SRN PLAINS NE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL GENERATE A PERIOD OF NE TO
N GALES LATE TUE NIGHT THRU EARLY WED AFTN OVER ALL BUT FAR WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ004>007-010>014-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
306 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS. STRONG SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING ONSHORE OF CA WILL BE THE
FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR A GREAT LAKES WINTER STORM MID WEEK AS IT
TRACKS E...THEN NE. SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST IN SHORT TERM IS NOW
MOVING E ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. SOME LIGHT PCPN HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
ERN IA AND MAINLY THE SE HALF OF WI THIS AFTERNOON WITH THIS
FEATURE...AIDED BY UPR DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET NOW
MOVING INTO SRN QUEBEC.
SHORTWAVE OVER IA WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. IN TURN...ASSOC SFC WILL TRACK FROM SRN
LAKE MI TO NEAR THE GEORGIAN BAY THIS EVENING. DEEP LAYER FORCING
SPREADING INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE PER MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV AND 700-600 MB FGEN HAS HELPED
SUPPORT SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER SCNTRL AND SE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS
NOTED ON AREA WEBCAMS.
BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS AND 1000-850MB THICKNESS FIELD...ANY PCPN
OVER THE SE FCST AREA SHOULD TURN FROM RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX TO
MOSTLY SNOW BY THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVELS FINALLY BEGIN TO COOL. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION (A FEW TENTHS) DUE TO MIX OF
PCPN AND ABOVE FREEZING SFC TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN IF PCPN
CHANGES TO ALL SNOW.
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE FROM NEAR IA MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WHILE A SFC TROF DROPS S ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO MOST OF NRN
UPPER MI BY 12Z MON. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOISTURE DEPTH MAY NOT
BE SUFFICIENT TO REACH SUB -10C TEMPS CONSISTENTLY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EVENING. SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR -FZDZ AT THAT TIME IF
PCPN OCCURS. THE GENERAL LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING AND MARGINAL AT
BEST INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE SUGGESTS NOTHING MORE THAN 20-30 PCT
POPS FOR -SN/-FZDZ ARE WARRANTED NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. EXPECT
MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
MONDAY...WEAK WINDS AND SHEAR WITHIN CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN LIMIT POPS TO GENERALLY NO MORE
THAN 30 PCT FOR WNW SNOWBELTS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 20S NORTH TO LOWER 30S SOUTH CENTRAL UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM WEATHER MON/MON NIGHT...AND ALSO
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WILL FOCUS ON TUE-WED TIME FRAME WHEN
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS POSSIBLE.
BIG PICTURE WISE...AN UPPER WAVE DRIVEN 990MB SFC LOW WILL MOVE FROM
NRN IL TO NRN LOWER MI TUE EVENING AND TUE NIGHT. CURRENTLY...THE
CONGLOMERATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL COME TOGETHER TO CREATE
THE STRONGER UPPER WAVE ARE W OF CONUS IN THE PACIFIC...SO MODELS
ARE STILL CHANGING FROM RUN TO RUN. STILL...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...WITH ONLY RELATIVELY MINOR TRACK/TIMING/STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER AND FARTHER NW THAN THE
ECMWF...AND THE GLOBAL GEM IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF BUT A HAIR
SLOWER. EXPECT THE FORECAST TO REALLY MOVE INTO THE FINE TUNING
STAGE ON MON AFTER THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED OVER THE CONUS AND IS MORE
MATURE.
ASSUMING A TRACK SIMILAR TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY SHOWN...SIGNIFICANT
SYNOPTIC SNOW OVER MAINLY SERN/ERN UPPER MI WOULD BE ENHANCED OVER
NCENTRAL AND WRN UPPER MI AS 850MB TEMPS AOB -8C AND NE WINDS
TURNING N THEN NW. IF MODELS VERIFY WELL...WOULD PROBABLY SEE
CONDITIONS THAT WOULD VERIFY WARNINGS OVER MOST OF THE ZONES. SNOW
RATIOS WOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW TEENS SE TO THE UPPER TEENS
NW...WHICH IS ALSO WHAT WOULD HELP BOOST AMOUNTS ON THE NW EDGE OF
SYNOPTIC PRECIP. AS FOR TIMING OF SNOWFALL...EXPECT SNOW TO MOVE IN
TUE AFTERNOON AND BECOME HEAVY TUE EVENING INTO TUE NIGHT. SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING BEHIND THE SYSTEM BUT LAKE
ENHANCED/EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT INTO WED NIGHT. HESITANT TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT. DID INCREASE
SNOWFALL OVER THE SCENTRAL AND E WHILE SLIGHTLY DECREASING OVER THE
FAR NW. ANOTHER HAZARD TO LOOK AT IS WINDS...ESPECIALLY OUT OF THE N-
NNE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS NEAR MAINLY CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT ALL
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE GUSTS AT LEAST OVER 20 KTS.
MODELS KEEP US IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN...WITH ANOTHER COLD SHOT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. WITH
SOME INCREASE IN UPSLOPE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...CIGS SHOULD FALL TO THE LOWER MVFR RANGE...AND PERHAPS IFR
AT KIWD AND KSAW. THERE MAY BE SOME -SHSN AND POSSIBLY SOME -FZDZ AS
WELL...BUT ONLY MENTIONED THIS IN KCMX FCST FOR NOW AS NNW FLOW MORE
FAVORABLE THERE LATE TONIGHT FOR UPSLOPE PCPN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
ATTENTION DURING THIS FCST PERIOD WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE MIDWEEK
PORTION OF THE FCST AS LOW PRES TRACKS FROM THE SRN PLAINS NE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL GENERATE A PERIOD OF NE TO
N GALES LATE TUE NIGHT THRU EARLY WED AFTN OVER ALL BUT FAR WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ004>007-010>014-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
124 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS. STRONG SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING CA AND WILL BE THE
FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR A GREAT LAKES WINTER STORM MID WEEK AS IT
TRACKS E...THEN NE. OF MORE IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS A SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS. SOME LIGHT PCPN HAS BEEN
DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN NEBRASKA/NW IA WITH THIS FEATURE...AND PCPN
HAS BEEN DEVELOPING FARTHER ENE ACROSS WI TO NRN LAKE MI...AIDED BY
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET EXTENDING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI TO
NEW ENGLAND.
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTN/EVENING. AS IT DOES SO...IT WILL SPIN UP A SFC LOW PRES
WAVE THAT WILL TRACK FROM WRN IL NE ACROSS LWR MI THIS AFTN/EVENING.
WHILE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL FGEN WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT PCPN AT TIMES THIS MORNING OVER FAR
SCNTRL UPPER MI AND ENE ALONG ALONG LAKE MI...THE BETTER CHANCE OF
PCPN WILL ARRIVE EARLY THIS AFTN AS RATHER HEALTHY DEEP LAYER
FORCING REACHES THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE. NRN EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD SHOULD BRUSH THE COUNTIES
BORDERING LAKE MI. BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS AND 1000-850MB THICKNESS
FIELD...PCPN SHOULD BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WITH A TRANSITION TO
MOSTLY SNOW AS LOW-LEVELS COOL SLIGHTLY. EVEN SO...NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION DUE TO MIX OF PCPN AND ABOVE FREEZING
SFC TEMPS...EVEN IF PCPN CHANGES TO ALL SNOW. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE UNDER 1 INCH. WHILE IT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS WARM AS
YESTERDAY...MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S.
TONIGHT...SUBTLE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE A
SFC TROF DROPS S ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO MOST OF NRN UPPER MI
BY 12Z MON. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOISTURE DEPTH MAY NOT BE
SUFFICIENT TO REACH SUB -10C TEMPS CONSISTENTLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EVENING. SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR -FZDZ IF PCPN OCCURS. THE
LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING AND MARGINAL AT BEST INSTABILITY OVER THE
LAKE SUGGESTS NOTHING MORE THAN SCHC POPS FOR -SN/-FZDZ ARE
WARRANTED NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM WEATHER MON/MON NIGHT...AND ALSO
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WILL FOCUS ON TUE-WED TIME FRAME WHEN
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS POSSIBLE.
BIG PICTURE WISE...AN UPPER WAVE DRIVEN 990MB SFC LOW WILL MOVE FROM
NRN IL TO NRN LOWER MI TUE EVENING AND TUE NIGHT. CURRENTLY...THE
CONGLOMERATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL COME TOGETHER TO CREATE
THE STRONGER UPPER WAVE ARE W OF CONUS IN THE PACIFIC...SO MODELS
ARE STILL CHANGING FROM RUN TO RUN. STILL...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...WITH ONLY RELATIVELY MINOR TRACK/TIMING/STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER AND FARTHER NW THAN THE
ECMWF...AND THE GLOBAL GEM IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF BUT A HAIR
SLOWER. EXPECT THE FORECAST TO REALLY MOVE INTO THE FINE TUNING
STAGE ON MON AFTER THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED OVER THE CONUS AND IS MORE
MATURE.
ASSUMING A TRACK SIMILAR TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY SHOWN...SIGNIFICANT
SYNOPTIC SNOW OVER MAINLY SERN/ERN UPPER MI WOULD BE ENHANCED OVER
NCENTRAL AND WRN UPPER MI AS 850MB TEMPS AOB -8C AND NE WINDS
TURNING N THEN NW. IF MODELS VERIFY WELL...WOULD PROBABLY SEE
CONDITIONS THAT WOULD VERIFY WARNINGS OVER MOST OF THE ZONES. SNOW
RATIOS WOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW TEENS SE TO THE UPPER TEENS
NW...WHICH IS ALSO WHAT WOULD HELP BOOST AMOUNTS ON THE NW EDGE OF
SYNOPTIC PRECIP. AS FOR TIMING OF SNOWFALL...EXPECT SNOW TO MOVE IN
TUE AFTERNOON AND BECOME HEAVY TUE EVENING INTO TUE NIGHT. SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING BEHIND THE SYSTEM BUT LAKE
ENHANCED/EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT INTO WED NIGHT. HESITANT TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT. DID INCREASE
SNOWFALL OVER THE SCENTRAL AND E WHILE SLIGHTLY DECREASING OVER THE
FAR NW. ANOTHER HAZARD TO LOOK AT IS WINDS...ESPECIALLY OUT OF THE N-
NNE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS NEAR MAINLY CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT ALL
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE GUSTS AT LEAST OVER 20 KTS.
MODELS KEEP US IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN...WITH ANOTHER COLD SHOT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. WITH
SOME INCREASE IN UPSLOPE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...CIGS SHOULD FALL TO THE LOWER MVFR RANGE...AND PERHAPS IFR
AT KIWD AND KSAW. THERE MAY BE SOME -SHSN AND POSSIBLY SOME -FZDZ AS
WELL...BUT ONLY MENTIONED THIS IN KCMX FCST FOR NOW AS NNW FLOW MORE
FAVORABLE THERE LATE TONIGHT FOR UPSLOPE PCPN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
ATTENTION DURING THIS FCST PERIOD WILL BE ON THE MIDWEEK PORTION OF
THE FCST AS LOW PRES TRACKS FROM THE SRN PLAINS NE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL GENERATE A PERIOD OF NE TO N GALES
LATE TUE NIGHT THRU EARLY WED AFTN OVER ALL BUT FAR WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
644 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS. STRONG SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING CA AND WILL BE THE
FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR A GREAT LAKES WINTER STORM MID WEEK AS IT
TRACKS E...THEN NE. OF MORE IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS A SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS. SOME LIGHT PCPN HAS BEEN
DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN NEBRASKA/NW IA WITH THIS FEATURE...AND PCPN
HAS BEEN DEVELOPING FARTHER ENE ACROSS WI TO NRN LAKE MI...AIDED BY
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET EXTENDING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI TO
NEW ENGLAND.
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTN/EVENING. AS IT DOES SO...IT WILL SPIN UP A SFC LOW PRES
WAVE THAT WILL TRACK FROM WRN IL NE ACROSS LWR MI THIS AFTN/EVENING.
WHILE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL FGEN WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT PCPN AT TIMES THIS MORNING OVER FAR
SCNTRL UPPER MI AND ENE ALONG ALONG LAKE MI...THE BETTER CHANCE OF
PCPN WILL ARRIVE EARLY THIS AFTN AS RATHER HEALTHY DEEP LAYER
FORCING REACHES THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE. NRN EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD SHOULD BRUSH THE COUNTIES
BORDERING LAKE MI. BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS AND 1000-850MB THICKNESS
FIELD...PCPN SHOULD BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WITH A TRANSITION TO
MOSTLY SNOW AS LOW-LEVELS COOL SLIGHTLY. EVEN SO...NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION DUE TO MIX OF PCPN AND ABOVE FREEZING
SFC TEMPS...EVEN IF PCPN CHANGES TO ALL SNOW. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE UNDER 1 INCH. WHILE IT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS WARM AS
YESTERDAY...MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S.
TONIGHT...SUBTLE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE A
SFC TROF DROPS S ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO MOST OF NRN UPPER MI
BY 12Z MON. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOISTURE DEPTH MAY NOT BE
SUFFICIENT TO REACH SUB -10C TEMPS CONSISTENTLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EVENING. SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR -FZDZ IF PCPN OCCURS. THE
LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING AND MARGINAL AT BEST INSTABILITY OVER THE
LAKE SUGGESTS NOTHING MORE THAN SCHC POPS FOR -SN/-FZDZ ARE
WARRANTED NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM WEATHER MON/MON NIGHT...AND ALSO
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WILL FOCUS ON TUE-WED TIME FRAME WHEN
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS POSSIBLE.
BIG PICTURE WISE...AN UPPER WAVE DRIVEN 990MB SFC LOW WILL MOVE FROM
NRN IL TO NRN LOWER MI TUE EVENING AND TUE NIGHT. CURRENTLY...THE
CONGLOMERATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL COME TOGETHER TO CREATE
THE STRONGER UPPER WAVE ARE W OF CONUS IN THE PACIFIC...SO MODELS
ARE STILL CHANGING FROM RUN TO RUN. STILL...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...WITH ONLY RELATIVELY MINOR TRACK/TIMING/STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER AND FARTHER NW THAN THE
ECMWF...AND THE GLOBAL GEM IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF BUT A HAIR
SLOWER. EXPECT THE FORECAST TO REALLY MOVE INTO THE FINE TUNING
STAGE ON MON AFTER THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED OVER THE CONUS AND IS MORE
MATURE.
ASSUMING A TRACK SIMILAR TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY SHOWN...SIGNIFICANT
SYNOPTIC SNOW OVER MAINLY SERN/ERN UPPER MI WOULD BE ENHANCED OVER
NCENTRAL AND WRN UPPER MI AS 850MB TEMPS AOB -8C AND NE WINDS
TURNING N THEN NW. IF MODELS VERIFY WELL...WOULD PROBABLY SEE
CONDITIONS THAT WOULD VERIFY WARNINGS OVER MOST OF THE ZONES. SNOW
RATIOS WOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW TEENS SE TO THE UPPER TEENS
NW...WHICH IS ALSO WHAT WOULD HELP BOOST AMOUNTS ON THE NW EDGE OF
SYNOPTIC PRECIP. AS FOR TIMING OF SNOWFALL...EXPECT SNOW TO MOVE IN
TUE AFTERNOON AND BECOME HEAVY TUE EVENING INTO TUE NIGHT. SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING BEHIND THE SYSTEM BUT LAKE
ENHANCED/EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT INTO WED NIGHT. HESITANT TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT. DID INCREASE
SNOWFALL OVER THE SCENTRAL AND E WHILE SLIGHTLY DECREASING OVER THE
FAR NW. ANOTHER HAZARD TO LOOK AT IS WINDS...ESPECIALLY OUT OF THE N-
NNE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS NEAR MAINLY CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT ALL
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE GUSTS AT LEAST OVER 20 KTS.
MODELS KEEP US IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN...WITH ANOTHER COLD SHOT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS MORNING AT KCMX/KSAW AS MVFR CIGS
HAVE NOT DEVELOPED WITH WEAK SFC TROF DRIFTING S INTO UPPER MI.
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATION FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL LEAD TO IFR
OR EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD THRU MID MORNING...THEN VFR WILL
PREVAIL. DURING THE AFTN...MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. WITH SOME INCREASE IN
UPSLOPE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...CIGS SHOULD FALL TO THE
LOWER MVFR RANGE...AND PERHAPS IFR AT KIWD. THERE MAY BE SOME -SHSN
AND POSSIBLY SOME -FZDZ AS WELL...BUT POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN FCST.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
ATTENTION DURING THIS FCST PERIOD WILL BE ON THE MIDWEEK PORTION OF
THE FCST AS LOW PRES TRACKS FROM THE SRN PLAINS NE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL GENERATE A PERIOD OF NE TO N GALES
LATE TUE NIGHT THRU EARLY WED AFTN OVER ALL BUT FAR WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
447 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS. STRONG SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING CA AND WILL BE THE
FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR A GREAT LAKES WINTER STORM MID WEEK AS IT
TRACKS E...THEN NE. OF MORE IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS A SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS. SOME LIGHT PCPN HAS BEEN
DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN NEBRASKA/NW IA WITH THIS FEATURE...AND PCPN
HAS BEEN DEVELOPING FARTHER ENE ACROSS WI TO NRN LAKE MI...AIDED BY
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET EXTENDING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI TO
NEW ENGLAND.
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTN/EVENING. AS IT DOES SO...IT WILL SPIN UP A SFC LOW PRES
WAVE THAT WILL TRACK FROM WRN IL NE ACROSS LWR MI THIS AFTN/EVENING.
WHILE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL FGEN WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT PCPN AT TIMES THIS MORNING OVER FAR
SCNTRL UPPER MI AND ENE ALONG ALONG LAKE MI...THE BETTER CHANCE OF
PCPN WILL ARRIVE EARLY THIS AFTN AS RATHER HEALTHY DEEP LAYER
FORCING REACHES THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE. NRN EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD SHOULD BRUSH THE COUNTIES
BORDERING LAKE MI. BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS AND 1000-850MB THICKNESS
FIELD...PCPN SHOULD BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WITH A TRANSITION TO
MOSTLY SNOW AS LOW-LEVELS COOL SLIGHTLY. EVEN SO...NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION DUE TO MIX OF PCPN AND ABOVE FREEZING
SFC TEMPS...EVEN IF PCPN CHANGES TO ALL SNOW. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE UNDER 1 INCH. WHILE IT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS WARM AS
YESTERDAY...MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S.
TONIGHT...SUBTLE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE A
SFC TROF DROPS S ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO MOST OF NRN UPPER MI
BY 12Z MON. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOISTURE DEPTH MAY NOT BE
SUFFICIENT TO REACH SUB -10C TEMPS CONSISTENTLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EVENING. SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR -FZDZ IF PCPN OCCURS. THE
LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING AND MARGINAL AT BEST INSTABILITY OVER THE
LAKE SUGGESTS NOTHING MORE THAN SCHC POPS FOR -SN/-FZDZ ARE
WARRANTED NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM WEATHER MON/MON NIGHT...AND ALSO
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WILL FOCUS ON TUE-WED TIME FRAME WHEN
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS POSSIBLE.
BIG PICTURE WISE...AN UPPER WAVE DRIVEN 990MB SFC LOW WILL MOVE FROM
NRN IL TO NRN LOWER MI TUE EVENING AND TUE NIGHT. CURRENTLY...THE
CONGLOMERATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL COME TOGETHER TO CREATE
THE STRONGER UPPER WAVE ARE W OF CONUS IN THE PACIFIC...SO MODELS
ARE STILL CHANGING FROM RUN TO RUN. STILL...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...WITH ONLY RELATIVELY MINOR TRACK/TIMING/STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER AND FARTHER NW THAN THE
ECMWF...AND THE GLOBAL GEM IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF BUT A HAIR
SLOWER. EXPECT THE FORECAST TO REALLY MOVE INTO THE FINE TUNING
STAGE ON MON AFTER THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED OVER THE CONUS AND IS MORE
MATURE.
ASSUMING A TRACK SIMILAR TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY SHOWN...SIGNIFICANT
SYNOPTIC SNOW OVER MAINLY SERN/ERN UPPER MI WOULD BE ENHANCED OVER
NCENTRAL AND WRN UPPER MI AS 850MB TEMPS AOB -8C AND NE WINDS
TURNING N THEN NW. IF MODELS VERIFY WELL...WOULD PROBABLY SEE
CONDITIONS THAT WOULD VERIFY WARNINGS OVER MOST OF THE ZONES. SNOW
RATIOS WOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW TEENS SE TO THE UPPER TEENS
NW...WHICH IS ALSO WHAT WOULD HELP BOOST AMOUNTS ON THE NW EDGE OF
SYNOPTIC PRECIP. AS FOR TIMING OF SNOWFALL...EXPECT SNOW TO MOVE IN
TUE AFTERNOON AND BECOME HEAVY TUE EVENING INTO TUE NIGHT. SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING BEHIND THE SYSTEM BUT LAKE
ENHANCED/EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT INTO WED NIGHT. HESITANT TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT. DID INCREASE
SNOWFALL OVER THE SCENTRAL AND E WHILE SLIGHTLY DECREASING OVER THE
FAR NW. ANOTHER HAZARD TO LOOK AT IS WINDS...ESPECIALLY OUT OF THE N-
NNE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS NEAR MAINLY CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT ALL
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE GUSTS AT LEAST OVER 20 KTS.
MODELS KEEP US IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN...WITH ANOTHER COLD SHOT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
DIURNAL COOLING AND A WEAK TROUGH MOVING INTO UPPER MICHIGAN IS
EXPECTED TO BRING IN LOWER CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS AT CMX AND
SAW AND NEAR IFR CIGS AT IWD BY MID MORNING. SOME VSBY REDUCTION
WITH FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE AS WINDS BECOME NW TO N THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
ATTENTION DURING THIS FCST PERIOD WILL BE ON THE MIDWEEK PORTION OF
THE FCST AS LOW PRES TRACKS FROM THE SRN PLAINS NE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL GENERATE A PERIOD OF NE TO N GALES
LATE TUE NIGHT THRU EARLY WED AFTN OVER ALL BUT FAR WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
318 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MAINLY ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. A WEAK UPSTREAM SHORTAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING
INTO THE NRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A 984 MB LOW WAS MOVING THROUGH
NRN ONTARIO TOWAD JAMES BAY RESULTING IN SW TO W FLOW OR MILD
PACIFIC AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED TO NEAR OR ABOVE
RECORD VALUES WITH 44F AT THE NWS OFFICE BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF
41. VIS LOOP SHOWED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF UPPER MI WITH
MID/HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO THE SOUTH.
TONIGHT INTO SUN...MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS A WEAK TROUGH
INTO CNTRL MN MOVES INTO THE REGION. A BAND OF 800-600 MB FGEN
ASSOCIATED WITH A JET STREAK LIFTING NE FROM THE NRN LAKES WILL HELP
SUPPORT AN AREA OF PCPN FROM CNTRL INTO NE WI AND INTO FAR SRN AND
POSSIBLY SE UPPER MI. MODELS CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT QPF AMOUNTS TO
AROUND 0.10 INCH FROM 06Z-18Z MAY AFFECT LOCATIONS NEAR MNM.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MODELS SPREAD...CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL AND MAINLY
CHNANCE POPS WERE MENTIONED EXCEPT AT MNM (60 POP) AROUND 12Z. LOW
LEVEL TEMP PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN AS THE PCPN TYPE.
HOWEVER...WITH TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR 32F A BIT FARTHER INLAND...SOME
FZRA/SN MAY ALSO MIX WITH THE PCPN. SO...EVEN THOUGH LITTLE OR NO
ICE/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ANY SMALL AMOUNTS ON UNTREATED
SURFACES COULD STILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. AS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVES OUT IN THE MORNING...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS
ALONG THE TROUGH/FRONT...SOME DZ/FZDZ WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SE
HALF. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER
30S OVER THE NW HALF TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S OVER THE S AND E.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM WEATHER MON/MON NIGHT...AND ALSO
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WILL FOCUS ON TUE-WED TIME FRAME WHEN
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS POSSIBLE.
BIG PICTURE WISE...AN UPPER WAVE DRIVEN 990MB SFC LOW WILL MOVE FROM
NRN IL TO NRN LOWER MI TUE EVENING AND TUE NIGHT. CURRENTLY...THE
CONGLOMERATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL COME TOGETHER TO CREATE
THE STRONGER UPPER WAVE ARE W OF CONUS IN THE PACIFIC...SO MODELS
ARE STILL CHANGING FROM RUN TO RUN. STILL...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...WITH ONLY RELATIVELY MINOR TRACK/TIMING/STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER AND FARTHER NW THAN THE
ECMWF...AND THE GLOBAL GEM IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF BUT A HAIR
SLOWER. EXPECT THE FORECAST TO REALLY MOVE INTO THE FINE TUNING
STAGE ON MON AFTER THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED OVER THE CONUS AND IS MORE
MATURE.
ASSUMING A TRACK SIMILAR TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY SHOWN...SIGNIFICANT
SYNOPTIC SNOW OVER MAINLY SERN/ERN UPPER MI WOULD BE ENHANCED OVER
NCENTRAL AND WRN UPPER MI AS 850MB TEMPS AOB -8C AND NE WINDS
TURNING N THEN NW. IF MODELS VERIFY WELL...WOULD PROBABLY SEE
CONDITIONS THAT WOULD VERIFY WARNINGS OVER MOST OF THE ZONES. SNOW
RATIOS WOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW TEENS SE TO THE UPPER TEENS
NW...WHICH IS ALSO WHAT WOULD HELP BOOST AMOUNTS ON THE NW EDGE OF
SYNOPTIC PRECIP. AS FOR TIMING OF SNOWFALL...EXPECT SNOW TO MOVE IN
TUE AFTERNOON AND BECOME HEAVY TUE EVENING INTO TUE NIGHT. SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING BEHIND THE SYSTEM BUT LAKE
ENHANCED/EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT INTO WED NIGHT. HESITANT TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT. DID INCREASE
SNOWFALL OVER THE SCENTRAL AND E WHILE SLIGHTLY DECREASING OVER THE
FAR NW. ANOTHER HAZARD TO LOOK AT IS WINDS...ESPECIALLY OUT OF THE N-
NNE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS NEAR MAINLY CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT ALL
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE GUSTS AT LEAST OVER 20 KTS.
MODELS KEEP US IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN...WITH ANOTHER COLD SHOT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
DIURNAL COOLING AND A WEAK TROUGH MOVING INTO UPPER MICHIGAN IS
EXPECTED TO BRING IN LOWER CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS AT CMX AND
SAW AND NEAR IFR CIGS AT IWD BY MID MORNING. SOME VSBY REDUCTION
WITH FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE AS WINDS BECOME NW TO N THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 550 AM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
STRONG LOW TRACKING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO THIS MORNING WILL RESULT
IN SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KTS TODAY. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO SUN
AS RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACKING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL LIKELY BRING NORTH TO NORTHEAST GALES
TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
308 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY
TODAY. THIS WILL BRING SOME RAINFALL TO THE ENTIRE AREA. THE RAIN
COULD CHANGE OVER TO A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING AS THE
PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION
WILL START OUT AS A MIXTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MORE SNOW...SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE NORTH...TO MORE RAIN SOUTH. A SURGE OF
WARMER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM. COLDER AIR WILL COME IN BEHIND
THE SYSTEM BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
THEN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
NO MAJOR IMPACTS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FCST. WE
WILL SEE RAIN EXPAND IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. WE
ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH AHEAD
OF A LEAD SHORT WAVE MOVING IN. MOISTURE IS A BIT LACKING INITIALLY
THIS MORNING WHICH WILL KEEP THE MEASURABLE AMOUNTS LIMITED. WE
WILL SEE A SURGE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVE IN BY AFTERNOON AS THE
MAIN SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS APPROACHES. PCPN SHOULD
REMAIN ALL RAIN AS WET BULB TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND THE MELTING
LAYER IS ABOVE 5K FT. FOG WILL BECOME LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
SFC LOW MOVES RIGHT THROUGH THE AREA.
PCPN WILL THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WE EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE
PCPN COULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BRIEFLY BEFORE ENDING AS SOMEWHAT
COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE. THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE AND PCPN WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME THE
CHANGEOVER IS TO OCCUR. SOME PCPN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS
THE MAIN SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS QUIET AND MILD. THE AIR COOLS
DOWN A BIT FOR MON WITH H850 TEMPS DROPPING AS LOW AS -6C OR SO.
THIS WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. IT WILL
ESSENTIALLY JUST BRING MAX TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 40 ON MON...VS. THE
MID-UPPER 40S WE WILL SEE TODAY. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD IN DURING
THE DAY ON MON AND REMAIN THROUGH MON NIGHT. THIS SHOULD HOLD OFF
ANY PCPN THAT TRIES TO SNEAK IN FROM THE SW UNTIL AT LEAST AFTER 12Z
TUE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
THE MAIN CONCERN DEALS WITH THE IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE POSSIBLE
STORM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
GENERALLY THE FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH REGARDING THE POTENTIAL
STORM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. STILL THE SYSTEM IS STILL OFF THE CA
COAST AND FUTURE FORECASTS COULD CHANGE CONSIDERABLY. BASED ON THE
00Z RUNS...THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION COULD BE A MIX FOR CENTRAL
LOWER MI TUESDAY AFTERNOON...GENERALLY NORTH OF A GRAND RAPIDS TO
LANSING LINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG ROUTE 10 EAST OF LUDINGTON
SHOW A RISK FOR ZR 00Z WEDNESDAY AS THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER MOVES IN
AND STEADIER PRECIPITATION WET BULBS THE SURFACE TEMPS DOWN CLOSE TO
FREEZING. GIVEN THE RISK FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS AND FREEZING RAIN...WE
COULD SEE POWER OUTAGES DEVELOPING LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. SOUTHERN LOCATIONS SHOULD
GENERALLY SEE A RAIN EVENT. WITH SNOW MELT AND OVER A HALF INCH OF
RAIN...SOME HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE. I DID KEEP THE MENTION
OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY EVENING WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SHOWN BY THE MODELS. ALL MODELS INDICATE A RATHER CONSIDERABLE DRY
SLOT TO MOVE IN QUICKLY TUESDAY EVENING...SHUTTING DOWN MUCH OF THE
STEADY PRECIPITATION INTO WEDNESDAY.
AS COLD AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS ON WEDNESDAY...LAKE EFFECT IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS GOING FOR WESTERN
COUNTIES. THE COMBINATION OF ONSHORE WINDS AND A COLD AIRMASS
CROSSING LAKE MI SUPPORTS CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IN THINKING FROM THE 00Z TAFS. THE LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ARRIVE TOWARD SUNRISE. I MAY HAVE THE
LOW CLOUDS COMING IN TO FAST BUT BASED ON THE LATEST RUN OF THE
NAM AND RAP MODELS... ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE IFR BY 15Z-16Z. RAIN
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT
WILL COME THROUGH LATE IN THE EVENING ON THE SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED UNTIL THE STORM SYSTEM
COMES IN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND BEYOND. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 20 KNOTS UNTIL THEN WITH WAVES REMAINING BELOW 4 FEET. WE
EXPECT THAT A SMALL CRAFT WILL BE NEEDED FOR TUE AND BEYOND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 247 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN
LOWLAND AREAS NEAR RIVERS. SOME RIVERS MAY BE ABLE TO EXCEED
BANKFULL DUE TO SNOW MELT AND A STORM SYSTEM. THE STORM WILL IMPACT
MICHIGAN TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF
0.50-1.00 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
A COMBINATION OF A WINTRY MIX AND PLAIN RAIN. RIVER LEVEL RISES ARE
ESPECIALLY LIKELY FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...NJJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1218 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MAINLY ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. A WEAK UPSTREAM SHORTAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING
INTO THE NRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A 984 MB LOW WAS MOVING THROUGH
NRN ONTARIO TOWAD JAMES BAY RESULTING IN SW TO W FLOW OR MILD
PACIFIC AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED TO NEAR OR ABOVE
RECORD VALUES WITH 44F AT THE NWS OFFICE BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF
41. VIS LOOP SHOWED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF UPPER MI WITH
MID/HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO THE SOUTH.
TONIGHT INTO SUN...MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS A WEAK TROUGH
INTO CNTRL MN MOVES INTO THE REGION. A BAND OF 800-600 MB FGEN
ASSOCIATED WITH A JET STREAK LIFTING NE FROM THE NRN LAKES WILL HELP
SUPPORT AN AREA OF PCPN FROM CNTRL INTO NE WI AND INTO FAR SRN AND
POSSIBLY SE UPPER MI. MODELS CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT QPF AMOUNTS TO
AROUND 0.10 INCH FROM 06Z-18Z MAY AFFECT LOCATIONS NEAR MNM.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MODELS SPREAD...CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL AND MAINLY
CHNANCE POPS WERE MENTIONED EXCEPT AT MNM (60 POP) AROUND 12Z. LOW
LEVEL TEMP PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN AS THE PCPN TYPE.
HOWEVER...WITH TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR 32F A BIT FARTHER INLAND...SOME
FZRA/SN MAY ALSO MIX WITH THE PCPN. SO...EVEN THOUGH LITTLE OR NO
ICE/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ANY SMALL AMOUNTS ON UNTREATED
SURFACES COULD STILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. AS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVES OUT IN THE MORNING...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS
ALONG THE TROUGH/FRONT...SOME DZ/FZDZ WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SE
HALF. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER
30S OVER THE NW HALF TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S OVER THE S AND E.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
...WINTER STORM LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IS STILL ON...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT HAS RE-ORGANIZED THE LAST DAY WITH STRONG
JET ACROSS PACIFIC SPLITTING ALONG WEST COAST. STRONGEST JET ENERGY
IS IN SOUTHERN STREAM AS IT MERGES WITH SUBTROPICAL JET ALONG SE
CONUS COAST. NORTHERN BRANCH JET IS WEST-EAST ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES. EXPECTATION IS THAT INTO EARLY THIS WEEK...JET
CRASHING INTO WEST COAST WILL DIG INTO SOUTHERN CA/BAJA CA WHILE
CARVING A TROUGH OUT OVER SW CONUS. AS THIS IS OCCURRING...TWO MAIN
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY...CURRENTLY OFFSHORE OF BRITISH COLUMBIA
WITH THE OTHER WELL TO WEST OF CA WILL PHASE TOGETHER WITHIN THIS
MEAN TROUGH. PHASING WOULD APPEAR TO BE DONE BY MON MORNING...SO
THEN IT JUST BECOMES A TRACK FORECAST OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW. LATEST GUIDANCE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SFC
LOW MOVING TO NORTHERN LOWER/EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN BY WED MORNING.
UPSHOT IS THAT STRONG STORM WITH SNOW/WIND REMAINS ON TRACK FOR UPR
MICHIGAN TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
BACK OVER UPR LAKES IT LOOKS PRETTY QUIET IN THE LEAD UP TIME TO THE
POTENTIAL STORM. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW REMAINS ACROSS GREAT LAKES
EARLY IN THE WEEK. STRONG SFC LOW MOVING BY OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
THIS AFTN WILL LEAD A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT TO ITS WEST. BY LATE SUN
THIS FRONT SHOULD STILL BE NORTH OF UPR MICHIGAN/LK SUPERIOR THOUGH
LEAD TROUGH MAY BE THROUGH UPR MICHIGAN BY THAT TIME. LEAD WAVE IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM WORKS THROUGH ON SUN NIGHT WITH WEAK LARGE SCALE
LIFT. MAIN AFFECT OF THE WAVE WILL BE TO BRING H85 COLD FRONT OVER
UPR MICHIGAN ALONG WITH INCREASING H9-H8 MOISTURE AND PUSH SFC COLD
FRONT OVER LK SUPERIOR. ONSHORE FLOW AND TEMPS AT TOP OF INVERSION
MARGINALLY COLD FOR LAKE EFFECT /MAYBE LOWER THAN -10C/ SHOULD LEAD
TO LIGHT LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION SUN NIGHT INTO MON FOR NW-N FLOW
AREAS. WITH GOOD PART OF THIS TIME FEATURING TEMPS -8C OR WARMER
ALSO PUT MENTION OF FZDZ IN THE GRIDS. PROBABLY LOOKING AT FLURRIES
AND FZDZ SUN NIGHT THEN BETTER SHOT AT SNOW SHOWERS MON AS IT TURNS
SLIGHTLY COOLER AT H85. BEST CHANCE OF MUCH PRECIP THROUGHOUT WILL
BE OVER NW INTO NCNTRL CWA WITH UPSLOPE NW FLOW. OVERALL NOT LOOKING
AT MUCH SNOW WITH LIMITED CONVERGENCE AND MINIMAL COLD AIR. HINT
THAT ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WORKS THROUGH LATE MON INTO MON EVENING WITH
MORE OF WIDESPREAD LGT SNOW/FLURRIES. WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD LEAD
TO MORE FZDZ LATER AT NIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE/FORCING ARE REMOVED.
ATTN TUE MORNING WILL BE ON THE WINTER STORM ONGOING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. STEADY MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOULD BE SPREADING ACROSS
MUCH OF CO/KS/SW NEB AND HEADING TOWARD EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA. SFC
LOW SHOULD BE VCNTY OF KS/OK BORDER. AS SHRA/TSRA START DEVELOPING
IN THE WARM SECTOR DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...SNOW WILL BE
EXPANDING AND INCREASING ON TUE AS IT CROSSES FM MID MO RIVER VALLEY
TOWARD WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY AS DEEP GULF MOISTURE IS
INGESTED INTO THE SYSTEM. STRONG DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN EXIT REGION OF
150+ KTS JET STREAK OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD AID IN WIDESPREAD
HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
EXPECT MODERATE SNOW TO REACH SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTN.
FARTHER NORTH...EAST WINDS AND TEMPS IN LOW-LEVEL MOIST LAYER -8C TO-
10C SHOULD ALLOW SNOW TO START TO EXPAND NW/NCNTRL BY LATE DAY
THOUGH INTENSITY SHOULD BE HELD DOWN AS DEEP MOISTURE IS LIMITED
ABOVE 850MB UNTIL RIGHT AT 00Z. WORTH SMALL CHANCE POPS WHILE
SPREAD LIKELY POPS OVER THE SCNTRL IN THE AFTN.
BULK OF STORM OCCURS TUE NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WED. AS THE SFC LOW
REACHES NORTHERN LK MICHIGAN/NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY 12Z WED...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SNOW OVER ALL OF UPR MICHIGAN. BASED ON TRACK OF
H85-H7 LOWS...HEAVIEST STRIPE OF SNOW WILL BE OVER CNTRL CWA. MOST
AREAS WILL SEE HEAVY SNOW FOR A TIME THOUGH AND WARNING AMOUNTS OF
AT LEAST 6 INCHES/12 HOURS WOULD BE MET. LAKE ENHANCEMENT/UPSLOPE
NORTHEAST WINDS WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN BLO -10C WILL ADD TO SNOW
INTENSITY AND TOTALS FOR NCNTRL CWA. THOUGH BULK OF SYSTEM SNOW
REMAINS TO EAST OF WESTERN CWA...COLDER TEMPS/HIGHER SLR/S AND
FAVORABLE NRLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW AND
POSSIBLE WARNING AMOUNTS THERE AS WELL. LAST...BUT CERTAINLY NOT
LEAST IS THE NORTH WINDS OVER 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS THAT WILL
LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VSBY. AT LEAST
LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OR AT
LEAST LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES INTO WED AFTN/WED EVENING. SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN TRACK OF LOW...WITH ECMWF MORE OVER ALPENA AT 12Z WED
AND GEM OVER CNTRL LK MICHIGAN. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
BUT OVERALL FLAVOR OF RECENT FORECASTS WITH THIS STORM ARE STILL ON
TRACK.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...MEAN TROUGHING AND COLD AIR WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN
IN THE -15C TO -20C RANGE WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT GOING FOR NW FLOW
AREAS. RETAINED PREVIOUS SHIFTS HIGHER POPS OVER CONSENSUS. MAY TURN
EVEN COLDER FOR NEXT WEEKEND...SO THE LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE.
AFTER THE MILD BREAK TODAY AND SUNDAY...LOOKS TO REMAIN WINTRY ON
INTO MID FEB.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
DIURNAL COOLING AND A WEAK TROUGH MOVING INTO UPPER MICHIGAN IS
EXPECTED TO BRING IN LOWER CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS AT CMX AND
SAW AND NEAR IFR CIGS AT IWD BY MID MORNING. SOME VSBY REDUCTION
WITH FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE AS WINDS BECOME NW TO N THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 550 AM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
STRONG LOW TRACKING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO THIS MORNING WILL RESULT
IN SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KTS TODAY. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO SUN
AS RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACKING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL LIKELY BRING NORTH TO NORTHEAST GALES
TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1158 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 247 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE WET AS LIGHT RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION...
WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE 40S ONCE AGAIN. ATTENTION TURNS
TO A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WINTERY MIX OF PRECIPITATION COULD
IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE MOST AREAS
TURN OVER TO RAIN. MOST OF THE HEAVY SNOW MAY STAY OVER WISCONSIN
AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH THIS SYSTEM. SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE STORM DEPARTS THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
LIGHT RAIN LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TOMORROW AS H850 WARM
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES BUILDING IN ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT LOOKS FAIRLY DECENT WITH THIS SYSTEM (40 KT LLJ) THOUGH
OVERALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH BASED
ON BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE. SOME WET SNOWFLAKES COULD MIX IN
SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY TOWARD ROUTE 10 AS THE H850 THERMAL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH AND SUBFREEZING TEMPS ALOFT COULD AID IN SOME WET
SNOW MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
INSIGNIFICANT. ANY IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE IN THE FORM
OF LEFTOVER WATER ON ROADS THAT COULD FREEZE UP FOR THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. SOMETHING TO BE MINDFUL OF.
MONDAY WILL STAY DRY ASIDE FROM A FEW FLURRIES NEAR ROUTE
10. OVERALL IT SHOULD BE A MILD DAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER BUT SHOULD SEE SOME INTERVALS OF SUN AS WELL. I FEATURED
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY STORM SYSTEM...THOUGH THERE COULD BE LIGHT
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES CLOSER TO SUNRISE ON TUESDAY ACROSS FAR SW
LOWER MI.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
WE CONTINUE TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS FOR THE TUE/WED STORM SYSTEM.
GENERALLY THE SURFACE LOW TRACK REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT...FROM
ROUGHLY CHICAGO TO ALPENA. STILL A LOT OF DETAILS TO IRON OUT AS
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC AND HAS NOT BEEN SAMPLED
WELL. FORECAST CHANGES MAY BE NEEDED AS THE STORM EVOLVES.
ANOTHER TREND IN THE MODELS HAVE THE WARM SURGE WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR EVEN STRONGER WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET BRINGING THAT WARMTH
NORTHWARD. THEREFORE HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST A BIT WARMER.
AS IT APPEARS NOW...INITIALLY WE SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY AS
THE PCPN MOVES IN. THIS COULD PUT DOWN 1-3 INCHES...MAINLY NORTH OF
I-96. BUT THEN A CHANGE TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. IF THE SHALLOW COLD AIR IS ABLE TO HOLD IN
PLACE WE COULD SEE FREEZING RAIN PERSIST FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-96.
ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE. SO THE POTENTIAL
FOR IMPACTS APPEAR HIGHEST NORTH OF I-96 AT THIS POINT.
MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY CHANGING PCPN
TO SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS AS H8 TEMPS DROP TO -10C TO -15C FOR THE REMINDER OF THE WEEK.
THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT WE MAY SEE A CLIPPER MOVE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER ABOUT SATURDAY...KEEPING SNOW
IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IN THINKING FROM THE 00Z TAFS. THE LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ARRIVE TOWARD SUNRISE. I MAY HAVE THE
LOW CLOUDS COMING IN TO FAST BUT BASED ON THE LATEST RUN OF THE
NAM AND RAP MODELS... ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE IFR BY 15Z-16Z. RAIN
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT
WILL COME THROUGH LATE IN THE EVENING ON THE SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 247 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
ADMITTEDLY MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH
TONIGHT BASED ON COASTAL WEB CAMS. WAVES GENERALLY LOOK TO BE 3
FEET OR LESS OUT THERE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS
FROM PENTWATER TO LUDINGTON. OVERALL...WAVES WILL SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
LOOKS LIKE SOME HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS REDEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH 3 TO 5 FOOTER POSSIBLY RETURNING MAINLY FROM HOLLAND
TO SOUTH HAVEN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 247 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN
LOWLAND AREAS NEAR RIVERS. SOME RIVERS MAY BE ABLE TO EXCEED
BANKFULL DUE TO SNOW MELT AND A STORM SYSTEM. THE STORM WILL IMPACT
MICHIGAN TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF
0.50-1.00 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
A COMBINATION OF A WINTRY MIX AND PLAIN RAIN. RIVER LEVEL RISES ARE
ESPECIALLY LIKELY FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...HOVING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
325 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
EARLY THIS MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE CLEARING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH PRIMARILY LINGERING
HIGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FAR SE FORECAST AREA. MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA...WILL HAVE CLEAR SKIES...RELATIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS...AND
VERY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS BEFORE DAWN. MODELS ARE HIGHLY SUGGESTING
FOG FORMATION AND RESULTING LOW LEVEL STRATUS FORMATION. MAY NEED
TO INCREASE FOG COVERAGE AND CLOUD COVER IF CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
TREND TOWARD THE FOGGY AND CLOUDY HRRR/RAP13/DLHWRF MODELS.
TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND...AND A COLD FRONT WILL DROP OUT OF ONTARIO AND MANITOBA
AND PASS THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. EVEN THOUGH THE FOG SHOULD LIFT
LATER THIS MORNING...THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
HELP MAINTAIN/DEVELOP LOW LEVEL STRATUS. FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WHEN SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
NORTHLAND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...AND FROM THE FORCING
FROM THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
IN THE LOWER 30S...BUT COULD BE LOWER IF THE FOG/STRATUS IS MORE
EXTENSIVE THAN FORECAST.
TONIGHT...A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA
FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM MANITOBA
AND NE NORTH DAKOTA. IT COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...THE
NIGHT SHOULD BE CLOUDY WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TEENS OVER
THE NORTH TO THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
MONDAY...THE PASSING WEAK LOW AND SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH. THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERING OF THE CLOUD COVER BY THE
AFTERNOON. DESPITE SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE COLDER THAN SUNDAY. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
HIGH NEARBY AND THE BEST FORCING HAS MOVED AWAY...REMOVED THE POPS
FOR MONDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT IS MOVING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. TUESDAY MORNING FINDS THAT SYSTEM A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN YESTERDAY IN BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA. HAVE BACKED OFF
ON THE POPS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND. BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP IN THE TRACK OF THE
SFC LOW AS WELL AS THE QPF FIELD. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH KEEP THE
QUARTER OF AN INCH CONTOUR SOUTH OF NW WI. HOWEVER...THE SNOW WILL
HAVE SPREAD INTO ALL OF NW WI. THERE IS A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE SNOW AND WHERE NO SNOW IS POSSIBLE...THAT BEING ALL OF NE MN
EXCEPT FROM THE TWIN PORTS SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN AITKIN COUNTY. THIS
IS DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR NEARBY. HAVE SMALL TO
LOW POPS IN THIS AREA OF MN...WITH HIGHER POPS THE FARTHER EAST
INTO NW WI WHERE A COUPLE OF INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY NIGHT FINDS THE DIFFERENCES IN SFC LOW TRACK
CONTINUING WITH THE GFS PLACING THE LOW CENTER OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE ECMWF PUTS IT OVER EASTERN LAKE HURON. THESE
DIFFERENCES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE QPF FIELDS POINT TO THE BULK OF
THE SNOW OCCURRING IN NW WI. THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS TUESDAY NIGHT
APPEAR TO BE EAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 63. CONFIDENCE ON THESE AMOUNTS
IS BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED DIFFERENCES. THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY LEAVING A NW FLOW OVER THE AREA. CAA AND A
WNW FETCH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MAY PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS IN NW WI. WEDNESDAY NIGHT FINDS A LONG WAVE TROF MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE LIGHT SNOW
SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM A WEAK SFC LOW AND HAVE POPS TO
REFLECT THIS DIFFERENCE. THE LONG WAVE TROF MOVES INTO EASTERN WI
THURSDAY ACCOMPANIED BY CHANNELED VORTICITY WHICH MEANS LOW POPS
FOR LIGHT SNOW. THIS TROF DEPARTS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING BEHIND. LINGERED SOME POPS OVER THE GOGEBIC
RANGE FOR THIS CHANNELED VORTICITY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FEATURES
THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AFFECTING THE REGION. LARGE ISSUES
WITH THE OVERALL QPF AND THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM RESULTS IN LOW
POPS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016
LOW VFR/MVFR CEILINGS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WITH LITTLE FOG OCCURRING IN THE NORTHLAND AS OF LATE
EVENING. WE DO EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP IN SPOTS...WHICH MAY REDUCE
CONDITIONS TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THE CEILINGS OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT WE DO EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE CEILING FORECAST IS
LOWER THAN AVERAGE AS WE DO EXPECT MORE DEVELOPMENT THAN CLOUDS
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. THE RAP/SREF STILL PRODUCE FOG...DENSE
IN SPOTS...OVERNIGHT AND THAT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOWER CEILINGS
AS WELL. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND THE RAP SUGGEST LOWER CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN OVER MOST AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 33 22 28 15 / 0 10 10 10
INL 29 12 22 4 / 10 20 20 10
BRD 31 20 30 15 / 10 10 10 0
HYR 34 22 32 17 / 10 10 10 0
ASX 34 22 31 18 / 0 10 20 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1137 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016
FOCUS IN SHORT TERM ON POCKET OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MID LEVEL
FORCING MOVING INTO NW WISCONSIN ZONES. THE CEILINGS ABOVE 5 KFT
AND LATEST NAMBUF SOUNDINGS SHOW LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWER AS THE
SHORT WAVE TRANSLATES ACROSS THE HAYWARD LAKES TO PARK FALLS
REGION THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF FREEZING
RAIN/SNOW AND KEPT PRECIPITATION TYPE AS ALL RAIN/SPRINKLES AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO WARM TO AROUND 40F THIS
AFTERNOON. INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG TO LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR AND OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT WHERE ZONAL FLOW
WILL KEEP DEW POINTS ELEVATED. HOWEVER...CANT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG
OVER REST OF FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE SNOWBELT TODAY.
A TRANSITION TO COLD AIR ADVECTION AND NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR LOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THROUGH SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED FLURRIES TO THE
NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO ACCOMPANY THE LOW CLOUDS AND
WEAK FORCING FROM A 500HPA TROUGH THAT WILL TRACK INTO THE WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR REGION.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016
A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION
WILL BRING WITH IT A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY FROM THE IRON RANGE NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER. SOME
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THAT TIME. THE FOCUS WILL THEN
SHIFT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A MAJOR WINTER STORM FROM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS ARE GRADUALLY COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WINTER STORM. THE
MODELS GENERALLY BRING THE SURFACE LOW TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY...AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE LOW
THEN MOVES TO QUEBEC BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW ALONG A SWATH FROM SC MN
INTO WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN. COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. ACROSS OUR AREA...THE MAIN THREAT IS IN NW
WI...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS DO NOW AGREE ON BRINGING A DECENT AMOUNT OF
QPF TO BORDERING AREAS OF NE MN. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE RAMPED UP
POPS FROM EAST CENTRAL MN INTO THE TWIN PORTS AND THE NORTH SHORE.
WIND WILL ALSO BE A MAJOR ISSUE...AS THE SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES ON ITS NORTHEAST TREK. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. COOLER AND MUCH MORE QUIET WEATHER WILL THEN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA AFTER THE WINTER STORM...WITH A MEAN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THAT
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016
LOW VFR/MVFR CEILINGS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA
WITH LITTLE FOG OCCURRING IN THE NORTHLAND AS OF LATE EVENING. WE
DO EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP IN SPOTS...WHICH MAY REDUCE CONDITIONS TO
IFR OR EVEN LIFR FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE
CEILINGS OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST...BUT WE DO EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE CEILING FORECAST IS LOWER THAN
AVERAGE AS WE DO EXPECT MORE DEVELOPMENT THAN CLOUDS ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION. THE RAP/SREF STILL PRODUCE FOG...DENSE IN
SPOTS...OVERNIGHT AND THAT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOWER CEILINGS AS
WELL. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND THE RAP SUGGEST LOWER CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN OVER MOST AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 24 32 21 28 / 10 10 10 10
INL 23 30 16 20 / 10 10 20 20
BRD 21 32 20 28 / 10 10 10 10
HYR 26 34 21 30 / 20 10 10 10
ASX 26 34 23 30 / 10 10 20 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
1040 PM MST SAT JAN 30 2016
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. RADAR RETURNS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA SO POPS
HAVE BEEN LOWERED ACCORDINGLY. HRRR ANALYSIS INDICATES SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SKIES HAVE CLEARED A BIT OVER A PORTION
OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND EXPECT ONLY SOME HIGH
CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO DECREASE. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0540Z.
A DISTURBANCE ALOFT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND GENERATE
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA. CLEARING OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MONTANA WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 08Z. WESTERLY WINDS HAVE DECREASED BUT WILL BECOME
BREEZY AGAIN AFTER 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF SNOW SHOWERS. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT
TIMES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 249 PM MST SAT JAN 30 2016
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A VARIABLE WEATHER SITUATION IS
OCCURRING OVER OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS SUNNY...MILD AND
BREEZY OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT...WHILE NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS AND
COLDER TEMPERATURES PREVAIL OVER SOUTHWEST MT. SOME OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST HAVE PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY
SNOWFALL. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE GENERALLY ABOUT 1/2 INCH...BUT
SOME MOUNTAIN PASSES AROUND BUTTE...BOULDER AND MACDONALD PASS
COULD SEE A QUICK INCH OF SNOWFALL. THUS POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FOR SOUTHWEST MT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
DIVIDE. SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS COULD EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS THE
BOZEMAN AREA AS WELL. EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH A BIT
LATER THIS EVENING...WHILE COLDER AIR GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. FOR NOW...WE WILL HOLD OFF ON A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...AND CONTINUE WITH THE SPS STATEMENTS...BUT IF
THE SNOWFALL INCREASES IN INTENSITY FOR LONGER PERIODS...A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY COULD BE ISSUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MT. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL LIKELY
SLIP DOWN INTO THE GREAT FALLS AND LEWISTOWN AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. AGAIN...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE ON THE LOW
SIDE...GENERALLY AROUND 1/2 INCH...WITH A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS
UP TO AN INCH. IN SOUTHWEST MT...THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN UNSETTLED...ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THE COOLING TREND
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. BRUSDA
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LATEST FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE
TO DEPICT AN UNSETTLED, COOL PATTERN FOR OUR REGION FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. FROM LATE MON THROUGH AT LEAST WED, CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST
MT WILL BE IN TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THE DEEP LONGWAVE TROF
EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA BACK INTO THE CENTRAL US AND BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. THAT WILL KEEP
US IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL DRAW COLDER AIRMASSES FROM
UPPER BC/ALB, RATHER THAN MORE RELATIVELY MILD PACIFIC AIR.
INTERMITTENT BANDS OF MOISTURE TRAVERSING THE FLOW WILL LEAD TO
SEVERAL PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH WED EVE, BUT SNOW COVERAGE
WILL BE SPOTTY, ESPECIALLY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. AS THE BANDS TAKE
RANDOM PATHS THROUGH OUR AREA, MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH WERE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT YESTERDAY ON MOVING THE PACIFIC RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON THURS ARE NOW LESS CERTAIN ON THAT OCCURRING.
THE ECMWF INDICATES THE RIDGE WILL GET HERE BUT MUCH DIMINISHED IN
STRENGTH AS A SHORTWAVE TROF CUTS THROUGH THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND
MOVES EAST OF ROCKY MTN FRONT BY THURS NIGHT. THE GFS IS LESS
OPTIMISTIC ON THE RIDGE EVEN MAKING IT HERE, AS IT SHOWS THE SAME
SHORTWAVE SLICING THROUGH THE RIDGE WHILE IT`S STILL IN WA/OR. THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE AS THE ECMWF TAKES THE SHORTWAVE
STRAIGHT ACROSS THE STATE, BRINGING WIDESPREAD MIX OF RAIN/SNOW ON
FRI FOLLOWED BY WEAK RIDGING ON SAT. MEANWHILE, THE GFS SLOWLY
PUSHES THE SHORTWAVE INTO ID/UT AND BRINGS ITS RAIN/SNOW ONLY AS
FAR EAST AS THE INTERSTATE 15 CORRIDOR, KEEPING PRECIP THERE
THROUGH SAT. FURTHER CHANGES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE LIKELY, BUT
FOR NOW OUR FORECAST DETAILS LEAN MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF MODEL.
CLOSEST AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS IS IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES.
BOTH MODELS ARE BACKING OFF ON EARLIER FORECASTS OF MILD TEMPS FOR
THURS AND FRI, INSTEAD NOW PROJECTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S FROM THURS THROUGH SAT.
WARANAUSKAS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 23 34 18 30 / 10 10 40 30
CTB 22 32 17 27 / 10 30 40 30
HLN 18 28 13 25 / 40 20 30 40
BZN 11 25 4 21 / 20 20 20 20
WEY 8 22 -3 19 / 40 30 20 10
DLN 10 22 3 17 / 30 20 20 20
HVR 24 34 19 28 / 20 40 30 30
LWT 19 32 16 27 / 10 10 40 50
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
905 PM MST SAT JAN 30 2016
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. RADAR RETURNS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA SO POPS
HAVE BEEN LOWERED ACCORDINGLY. HRRR ANALYSIS INDICATES SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SKIES HAVE CLEARED A BIT OVER A PORTION
OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND EXPECT ONLY SOME HIGH
CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO DECREASE. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2355Z.
A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND
GENERATE BANDS OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD GRADUALLY END BY 07Z WITH PARTIAL CLEARING. BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE BY 07Z. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR SNOW BANDS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT TIMES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 249 PM MST SAT JAN 30 2016
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A VARIABLE WEATHER SITUATION IS
OCCURRING OVER OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS SUNNY...MILD AND
BREEZY OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT...WHILE NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS AND
COLDER TEMPERATURES PREVAIL OVER SOUTHWEST MT. SOME OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST HAVE PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY
SNOWFALL. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE GENERALLY ABOUT 1/2 INCH...BUT
SOME MOUNTAIN PASSES AROUND BUTTE...BOULDER AND MACDONALD PASS
COULD SEE A QUICK INCH OF SNOWFALL. THUS POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FOR SOUTHWEST MT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
DIVIDE. SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS COULD EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS THE
BOZEMAN AREA AS WELL. EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH A BIT
LATER THIS EVENING...WHILE COLDER AIR GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. FOR NOW...WE WILL HOLD OFF ON A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...AND CONTINUE WITH THE SPS STATEMENTS...BUT IF
THE SNOWFALL INCREASES IN INTENSITY FOR LONGER PERIODS...A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY COULD BE ISSUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MT. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL LIKELY
SLIP DOWN INTO THE GREAT FALLS AND LEWISTOWN AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. AGAIN...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE ON THE LOW
SIDE...GENERALLY AROUND 1/2 INCH...WITH A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS
UP TO AN INCH. IN SOUTHWEST MT...THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN UNSETTLED...ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THE COOLING TREND
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. BRUSDA
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LATEST FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE
TO DEPICT AN UNSETTLED, COOL PATTERN FOR OUR REGION FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. FROM LATE MON THROUGH AT LEAST WED, CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST
MT WILL BE IN TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THE DEEP LONGWAVE TROF
EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA BACK INTO THE CENTRAL US AND BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. THAT WILL KEEP
US IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL DRAW COLDER AIRMASSES FROM
UPPER BC/ALB, RATHER THAN MORE RELATIVELY MILD PACIFIC AIR.
INTERMITTENT BANDS OF MOISTURE TRAVERSING THE FLOW WILL LEAD TO
SEVERAL PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH WED EVE, BUT SNOW COVERAGE
WILL BE SPOTTY, ESPECIALLY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. AS THE BANDS TAKE
RANDOM PATHS THROUGH OUR AREA, MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH WERE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT YESTERDAY ON MOVING THE PACIFIC RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON THURS ARE NOW LESS CERTAIN ON THAT OCCURRING.
THE ECMWF INDICATES THE RIDGE WILL GET HERE BUT MUCH DIMINISHED IN
STRENGTH AS A SHORTWAVE TROF CUTS THROUGH THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND
MOVES EAST OF ROCKY MTN FRONT BY THURS NIGHT. THE GFS IS LESS
OPTIMISTIC ON THE RIDGE EVEN MAKING IT HERE, AS IT SHOWS THE SAME
SHORTWAVE SLICING THROUGH THE RIDGE WHILE IT`S STILL IN WA/OR. THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE AS THE ECMWF TAKES THE SHORTWAVE
STRAIGHT ACROSS THE STATE, BRINGING WIDESPREAD MIX OF RAIN/SNOW ON
FRI FOLLOWED BY WEAK RIDGING ON SAT. MEANWHILE, THE GFS SLOWLY
PUSHES THE SHORTWAVE INTO ID/UT AND BRINGS ITS RAIN/SNOW ONLY AS
FAR EAST AS THE INTERSTATE 15 CORRIDOR, KEEPING PRECIP THERE
THROUGH SAT. FURTHER CHANGES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE LIKELY, BUT
FOR NOW OUR FORECAST DETAILS LEAN MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF MODEL.
CLOSEST AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS IS IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES.
BOTH MODELS ARE BACKING OFF ON EARLIER FORECASTS OF MILD TEMPS FOR
THURS AND FRI, INSTEAD NOW PROJECTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S FROM THURS THROUGH SAT.
WARANAUSKAS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 23 34 18 30 / 10 10 40 30
CTB 22 32 17 27 / 10 30 40 30
HLN 18 28 13 25 / 40 20 30 40
BZN 11 25 4 21 / 20 20 20 20
WEY 8 22 -3 19 / 40 30 20 10
DLN 10 22 3 17 / 30 20 20 20
HVR 24 34 19 28 / 20 40 30 30
LWT 19 32 16 27 / 10 10 40 50
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
830 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
NO BIG CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
LOOP EARLY THIS EVENING SHOWED CLOSED MID TROPOSPHERIC CIRCULATION
CENTER OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. DIFFLUENT FLOW WITH NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH WAS CREATING LIFT AND SLOWLY SATURATING THE ATMOSPHERE
LOCALLY. HEAVY SNOW WAS FALLING TO THE WEST IN NORTHWEST KANSAS AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. LIGHTNING HAD DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
00Z KOAX SOUNDING HAD AROUND 0.41 PW BUT LOWER LEVELS WERE STILL
FAIRLY DRY. LAPSE RATES ABOVE 600 MB WERE FAIRLY STEEP. 300 MB
CHART AT 00Z HAD A 125 KT JETSTREAK PUNCHING NORTHEAST FROM THE
OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER REGION. AT 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS ESTIMATED AT
UP TO 150 METERS IN THE PAST 12 HOURS WERE OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. THERE WAS A MODEST THERMAL GRADIENT AT 700 MB ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE LOW BACK OVER COLORADO. AT 850 MB...
THERE WAS NOT MUCH COLD AIR NOTED. ACROSS NEBRASKA...850 MB
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY -2 TO -5 DEGREES CELSIUS. HIGHEST
850 MB DEWPOINTS WERE 6 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS ALONG THE GULF
COAST. SURFACE LOW AT 02Z WAS STILL OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO...
WITH ANOTHER IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
EXPECT THAT RADAR ECHOES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
SOME OF THE RECENT SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
FAIRLY STRONG BAND OF 700-600 MB FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPING FROM
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN IOWA.
FARTHER SOUTH...IN THE TROWAL AREA THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
NEBRASKA/KANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER REGION...THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WITH
NEGATIVE EPV IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER BY AROUND 12Z. THAT AREA OF
INSTABILITY MAY LIFT UP INTO THE OMAHA AREA IN THE MORNING AS DRY
SLOT PUNCHES INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. IT WILL
BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS. IF IT DOES...THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW IN THE MORNING (AND ADDED SOME ISOLD
THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST)...A BRIEF LULL BY NOON...AND THEN SNOW
PICKING UP AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
AGAIN NO BIG CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL UPDATE ALL TEXT
PRODUCTS BEFORE 9 PM CST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
ALL EYES FOCUS ON THE IMMINENT STORM SYSTEM. SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES DIGGING WESTERN US TROUGH...WITH 500MB HEIGHT
FALLS UP TO 200M IN NORTHERN AZ. 150KT+ UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK WAS
NOTED PUNCHING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. AN 850MB RIDGE WAS IN PLACE
FROM EASTERN KS INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN NEB...ASSOCIATED WITH DRIER
AIR...WITH THE 0C TEMPERATURE LINE ROUGHLY ALONG THE KS-NEB BORDER
AND INTO NORTHERN MO. SURFACE LOW AT 20Z WAS CENTERED IN SOUTHWEST
TO CENTRAL CO...WITH BROAD SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE DAKOTAS TO EASTERN
IA...AND WITH INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM WESTERN NEB INTO KS.
WINTER STORM SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT EASTERN NEB/WESTERN
IA...BUT OF COURSE...THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS. PRECIPITATION
WILL BEGIN AS RAIN SOUTH AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX ELSEWHERE...WITH
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW PROBABLY HAPPENING SHORTLY AFTER ONSET AS
TEMPERATURE PROFILE WET-BULBS. EVEN SO...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
HOVER VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING ALL OF TONIGHT IN MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH TEMPS FALLING A BIT LOWER IN NORTHEAST NEB AND STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING IN FAR SOUTHEAST NEB/SOUTHWEST IA. MODELS ARE TIMING
PRECIPITATION ONSET SOMEWHAT MORE SLOWLY...SOME OF THEM HOLDING OFF
ON MUCH OR ANY PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHWEST TO WEST CENTRAL IA BEFORE
12Z. THUS...SNOW AMOUNT FORECAST FOR 06-12Z IS PERHAPS LOWEST
CONFIDENCE OF ALL...AS THESE NEGATING FACTORS WORK AGAINST
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN VERTICAL ASCENT AS FRONTOGENETIC BANDING
FROM 850-700MB DEVELOPS...ALONG WITH LOW STATIC STABILITY OR EVEN
INSTABILITY...AND WITH INCREASING SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS TOWARD THE PLAINS AND QG-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AIMS AT THE MO RIVER VALLEY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS RIDGE SLIDES AWAY AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. HAVE NOTED IN PARTICULAR THAT SOME OF THE HIGHER-
RES MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD DEVELOPING A BAND OF SNOW ON THE
EARLIER SIDE IN NORTHEAST NEB TO NORTHWEST IA...ALONG THE AXIS OF
700MB FRONTOGENESIS. DID FACTOR THAT INTO INCREASING SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS IN THAT AREA...BUT MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL FOR A
BAND OF LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IF THAT DOES MATERIALIZE.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OR BECOME ALL SNOW BY AROUND TUESDAY MORNING
IN ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERNMOST CWA...WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO HOVER ABOVE FREEZING AT THE SURFACE THROUGH AROUND
850MB. SLOWER SOLUTIONS NOW FAVOR TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS
THE TIME OF PEAK VERTICAL ASCENT AND MESOSCALE BANDING...AND THUS
THE PEAK FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY
IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR FREEZING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20-
30KT...WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35-40KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE
THE HEAVY AND WET CHARACTER OF THE SNOW...WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO CREATE SUBSTANTIAL BLOWING AND DRIFTING. STORM HAS TAKEN
A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT...BRINGING HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS TOWARD
NORTHEAST NEB...AND HAVE UPGRADED THOSE COUNTIES IN A BLIZZARD WATCH
TO A BLIZZARD WARNING AS WINDS SHOULD BE AS INTENSE THERE AS IN THE
REST OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING AREA. DID TWEAK SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
DOWN A BIT IN SOUTHEAST NEB/SOUTHWEST IA WITH WARMER AIR HANGING ON
LONGER. OTHERWISE HAVE LEFT SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST AND HEADLINES
INTACT...WITH HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS PEAKING IN THE 9-13 INCH
RANGE...AND WITH A SUBTLE NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
SNOW.
IT BEARS REPEATING THAT THERE IS A VERY FINE LINE BETWEEN EXPECTED
CONDITIONS IN THE BLIZZARD WARNING AND WINTER STORM WARNING AREAS.
BOTH WILL SEE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE MAIN
DIFFERENTIATING FACTOR IS THAT WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT IN *SUSTAINED*
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE BLIZZARD WARNING AREA. IN THE WINTER
STORM WARNING AREA...WE DO EXPECT INTERMITTENT NEAR-BLIZZARD/WHITE-
OUT CONDITIONS...JUST LESS LIKELY TO HOLD ON FOR 3 CONSECUTIVE
HOURS. THE DIFFERENCE IS SOMEWHAT SEMANTIC AND TECHNICAL...AND
IMPACTS WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR ACROSS BOTH AREAS.
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE EVEN AFTER SNOW
DIMINISHES ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...UNTIL WIND SPEEDS
FINALLY SLACKEN BELOW 10-15KT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY
WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO MODERATE BACK
TOWARD NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
QUIETER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH NEAR- TO ABOVE-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS DO HINT AT A DIGGING TROUGH ARRIVING
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRINGING HIT-AND-MISS POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
SNOW. WITH FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM...DID TRY TO CLEAN UP POPS JUST
A TOUCH TO BE LESS SPOTTY AND MORE FOCUSED ON TIMING WITH THE
TROUGH/FRONTAL PASSAGE. SYSTEM ALSO WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
DOWN TO NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL READINGS.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 558 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
THROUGH 06Z...THE MOISTURE PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING AND SPRINKLES...THEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND SNOW
DEVELOPING. KLNK DID REPORT SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE LAST HOUR AND
WE HAD SPRINKLES HERE AT THE NWS IN VALLEY...HOWEVER NOT MUCH IS
REACHING THE GROUND. VFR CIGS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AS AN AREA
OF FRONTOGENESIS/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTS NORTH AND LARGE SCALE
OMEGA ARRIVES. THE SPC HRRR AND THE NAM SHOW A GAP IN THE
LIFT...HOWEVER THE 4KM WRF TENDS TO FILL THE SNOW AREA IN AFTER
06Z. BETWEEN 06Z-12Z...THERE IS IMPRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT AND
DETERIORATION FROM MVFR/IFR TO VLIFR WITH VERY STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS (20 TO 30KTS WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40KTS. IN
ADDITION...CONVECTION APPEARS TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE KANSAS BORDER
THEN PUSHES NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
BETWEEN 11-13Z AND THIS SHOULD BE WHEN WE SEE MORE WIDESPREAD
VLIFR. CONTINUE WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS IN +SN/BLSN THROUGH
18-20Z...THEN NORTHEAST WINDS DECREASING TO 15G25KTS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR NEZ045-051>053-066-067-078-088.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR NEZ068-089>092.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ011-012-016-017-
030-031-042>044-050-065.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
NEZ015-018-032>034.
IA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR IAZ055-056-069-079-080.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR IAZ090-091.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
IAZ043.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
629 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
ALL EYES FOCUS ON THE IMMINENT STORM SYSTEM. SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES DIGGING WESTERN US TROUGH...WITH 500MB HEIGHT
FALLS UP TO 200M IN NORTHERN AZ. 150KT+ UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK WAS
NOTED PUNCHING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. AN 850MB RIDGE WAS IN PLACE
FROM EASTERN KS INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN NEB...ASSOCIATED WITH DRIER
AIR...WITH THE 0C TEMPERATURE LINE ROUGHLY ALONG THE KS-NEB BORDER
AND INTO NORTHERN MO. SURFACE LOW AT 20Z WAS CENTERED IN SOUTHWEST
TO CENTRAL CO...WITH BROAD SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE DAKOTAS TO EASTERN
IA...AND WITH INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM WESTERN NEB INTO KS.
WINTER STORM SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT EASTERN NEB/WESTERN
IA...BUT OF COURSE...THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS. PRECIPITATION
WILL BEGIN AS RAIN SOUTH AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX ELSEWHERE...WITH
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW PROBABLY HAPPENING SHORTLY AFTER ONSET AS
TEMPERATURE PROFILE WET-BULBS. EVEN SO...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
HOVER VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING ALL OF TONIGHT IN MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH TEMPS FALLING A BIT LOWER IN NORTHEAST NEB AND STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING IN FAR SOUTHEAST NEB/SOUTHWEST IA. MODELS ARE TIMING
PRECIPITATION ONSET SOMEWHAT MORE SLOWLY...SOME OF THEM HOLDING OFF
ON MUCH OR ANY PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHWEST TO WEST CENTRAL IA BEFORE
12Z. THUS...SNOW AMOUNT FORECAST FOR 06-12Z IS PERHAPS LOWEST
CONFIDENCE OF ALL...AS THESE NEGATING FACTORS WORK AGAINST
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN VERTICAL ASCENT AS FRONTOGENETIC BANDING
FROM 850-700MB DEVELOPS...ALONG WITH LOW STATIC STABILITY OR EVEN
INSTABILITY...AND WITH INCREASING SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS TOWARD THE PLAINS AND QG-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AIMS AT THE MO RIVER VALLEY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS RIDGE SLIDES AWAY AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. HAVE NOTED IN PARTICULAR THAT SOME OF THE HIGHER-
RES MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD DEVELOPING A BAND OF SNOW ON THE
EARLIER SIDE IN NORTHEAST NEB TO NORTHWEST IA...ALONG THE AXIS OF
700MB FRONTOGENESIS. DID FACTOR THAT INTO INCREASING SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS IN THAT AREA...BUT MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL FOR A
BAND OF LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IF THAT DOES MATERIALIZE.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OR BECOME ALL SNOW BY AROUND TUESDAY MORNING
IN ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERNMOST CWA...WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO HOVER ABOVE FREEZING AT THE SURFACE THROUGH AROUND
850MB. SLOWER SOLUTIONS NOW FAVOR TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS
THE TIME OF PEAK VERTICAL ASCENT AND MESOSCALE BANDING...AND THUS
THE PEAK FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY
IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR FREEZING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20-
30KT...WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35-40KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE
THE HEAVY AND WET CHARACTER OF THE SNOW...WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO CREATE SUBSTANTIAL BLOWING AND DRIFTING. STORM HAS TAKEN
A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT...BRINGING HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS TOWARD
NORTHEAST NEB...AND HAVE UPGRADED THOSE COUNTIES IN A BLIZZARD WATCH
TO A BLIZZARD WARNING AS WINDS SHOULD BE AS INTENSE THERE AS IN THE
REST OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING AREA. DID TWEAK SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
DOWN A BIT IN SOUTHEAST NEB/SOUTHWEST IA WITH WARMER AIR HANGING ON
LONGER. OTHERWISE HAVE LEFT SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST AND HEADLINES
INTACT...WITH HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS PEAKING IN THE 9-13 INCH
RANGE...AND WITH A SUBTLE NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
SNOW.
IT BEARS REPEATING THAT THERE IS A VERY FINE LINE BETWEEN EXPECTED
CONDITIONS IN THE BLIZZARD WARNING AND WINTER STORM WARNING AREAS.
BOTH WILL SEE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE MAIN
DIFFERENTIATING FACTOR IS THAT WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT IN *SUSTAINED*
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE BLIZZARD WARNING AREA. IN THE WINTER
STORM WARNING AREA...WE DO EXPECT INTERMITTENT NEAR-BLIZZARD/WHITE-
OUT CONDITIONS...JUST LESS LIKELY TO HOLD ON FOR 3 CONSECUTIVE
HOURS. THE DIFFERENCE IS SOMEWHAT SEMANTIC AND TECHNICAL...AND
IMPACTS WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR ACROSS BOTH AREAS.
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE EVEN AFTER SNOW
DIMINISHES ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...UNTIL WIND SPEEDS
FINALLY SLACKEN BELOW 10-15KT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY
WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO MODERATE BACK
TOWARD NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
QUIETER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH NEAR- TO ABOVE-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS DO HINT AT A DIGGING TROUGH ARRIVING
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRINGING HIT-AND-MISS POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
SNOW. WITH FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM...DID TRY TO CLEAN UP POPS JUST
A TOUCH TO BE LESS SPOTTY AND MORE FOCUSED ON TIMING WITH THE
TROUGH/FRONTAL PASSAGE. SYSTEM ALSO WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
DOWN TO NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL READINGS.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 558 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
THROUGH 06Z...THE MOISTURE PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING AND SPRINKLES...THEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND SNOW
DEVELOPING. KLNK DID REPORT SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE LAST HOUR AND
WE HAD SPRINKLES HERE AT THE NWS IN VALLEY...HOWEVER NOT MUCH IS
REACHING THE GROUND. VFR CIGS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AS AN AREA
OF FRONTOGENESIS/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTS NORTH AND LARGE SCALE
OMEGA ARRIVES. THE SPC HRRR AND THE NAM SHOW A GAP IN THE
LIFT...HOWEVER THE 4KM WRF TENDS TO FILL THE SNOW AREA IN AFTER
06Z. BETWEEN 06Z-12Z...THERE IS IMPRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT AND
DETERIORATION FROM MVFR/IFR TO VLIFR WITH VERY STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS (20 TO 30KTS WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40KTS. IN
ADDITION...CONVECTION APPEARS TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE KANSAS BORDER
THEN PUSHES NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
BETWEEN 11-13Z AND THIS SHOULD BE WHEN WE SEE MORE WIDESPREAD
VLIFR. CONTINUE WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS IN +SN/BLSN THROUGH
18-20Z...THEN NORTHEAST WINDS DECREASING TO 15G25KTS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR NEZ045-051>053-066-067-078-088.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR NEZ068-089>092.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR NEZ011-012-016-017-030-031-042>044-050-065.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
NEZ015-018-032>034.
IA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR IAZ055-056-069-079-080.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR IAZ090-091.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
IAZ043.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1007 PM EST MON FEB 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA
OVERNIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A RAINY DAY ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1007 PM EST MONDAY...COLD FRONT ROUGHLY ANALYZED NEAR THE
ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WITH A NOTED SHARP WIND SHIFT TO NORTH
BEHIND IT. THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME POCKETS OF CLEARING ACROSS
CENTRAL VT INTO THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM THERE`S A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD
COVER WHICH PRECEDES THE COLD FRONT WITH OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN/WESTERN HALF OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. STILL SEE
SOME WEAK REFLECTIVITIES PER FRANKTOWN ONTARIO RADAR APPROXIMATELY
COLLOCATED WITH AN AXIS OF 925-850 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING PER
SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE. 00Z NAM MAINTAINS SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
PUSHING SOUTHWARD, THOUGH RECENT RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH JUST A WIND SHIFT. WITH ALL THAT SAID, EXPECT
AT LEAST AN INCREASE IN SKY COVER WITH POPS IN THE ISOLATED/SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE THOUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HRS. ANY ACCUMULATION IN
LOCATIONS WHERE IT DOES SNOW LIGHTLY WILL BE LIMITED. NO
ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPS, WHICH STILL LOOK ON TRACK AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /11 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 323 PM EST MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR OUR NEXT
BIG SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT, TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALL
THE WHILE SLIGHTLY OCCLUDING. STRONG MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND A MODEST SURGE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEVELOPING 50-70KT 925-850MB JET PUSH INTO THE AREA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT AT THE SURFACE A STRONG 1030MB HIGH OVER
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT SHIFTS OVER NOVA SCOTIA WEDNESDAY, TRAPPING
A SHALLOW LAYER OF COLD AIR, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
VERMONT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A BRIEF 1-3 HOUR WINDOW OF
POTENTIAL MIXED PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SLEET, SNOW AND/OR FZRA.
EXPECTED IMPACTS TO BE LIMITED THOUGH AS WARM AIR ADVECTION IS SO
ROBUST THAT SURFACE TEMPS CLIMB QUICKLY INTO THE MID 40S TO
LOCALLY 50 IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY MID-DAY WEDNESDAY, BUT
ONSET TIMING MAY COINCIDE WITH THE MORNING RUSH SO THIS WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED. CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIP REMAIN THE LONGEST EAST OF
THE GREENS, ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST WHERE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR AT
THE SURFACE WILL BE TOUGHEST TO SCOUR OUT, BUT EVENTUALLY WARMER
AIR ALOFT WILL IN OVER WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED BY MID-DAY.
OTHER THAN THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
SURFACE WINDS STILL EXIST WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG LOW LEVEL JET CHANNELED UP THE SOUTHERN
ST. LAWRENCE AND NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS. BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE
RATES AREN`T PARTICULARLY STEEP ENOUGH TO MIX DOWN THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT WINDS TO THE SURFACE, AND LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BACKED
OFF A BIT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE 925MB JET, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS TO 40 MPH STILL EXISTS IN THE AFTERNOON AS A MID-LEVEL DRY
SLOT BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
TEMPS WILL BE ABNORMALLY HIGH FOR EARLY FEBRUARY, TEETERING ON
RECORD LEVELS, WARMING WELL INTO THE 40S TO LOCALLY LOWER 50S LATE
IN THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 323 PM EST MONDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WANE GOING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC AND THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT BUILDS
FURTHER INTO THE REGION. ALOFT TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL SO ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK CONDITIONS DO TREND DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EVEN THOUGH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
NEVER REALLY VEERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST, SO OVERALL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK REMAIN SOMEWHAT MILD FOR FEBRUARY RANGING
THROUGH THE 30S FOR THURSDAY, AND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL IN THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT, AND MID 20S TO AROUND 30 FOR FRIDAY.
LOOKING FURTHER TOWARDS THE WEEKEND, A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS
TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AS WE GET BACK
INTO DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 30S, BUT AS A
DEEP TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SUNDAY TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SEWD FROM
THE OTTAWA VALLEY ACROSS NRN NY AND NRN VT DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BRINGING MAINLY VFR STRATUS DECK (BKN-OVC035-050) WITH HIR
TRRN OBSCD. SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS LOCALLY AT SLK
BETWEEN 07-12Z. CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLD SNOW SHOWER OR TWO AT THE
TAF SITES...BUT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE AND TIMING
UNCERTAINTY...HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. WILL SEE SKIES
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH 03-04Z...BUT THEN LIGHT NW-N
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...UP TO 5-8KT AT TIMES AT BTV OVERNIGHT.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WED - 06Z WED...MAINLY VFR AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE OVER THE REGION.
06Z WED - 00Z THU...DETERIORATING AVIATION WX CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AS A WARM FRONT SHIFTS FROM CENTRAL NY INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. EXPECTED MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS ACROSS NRN NY...AND AROUND
DAYBREAK IN VT. WILL SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...WITH SNOW CHANGING TO A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN...AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL RAIN MID-LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR ALSO A CONCERN DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 25KTS POSSIBLE
BY WEDNESDAY AFTN FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. EXPECT
IMPACT TO AVIATION GROUND OPS FOR A TIME WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO
MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION. HIR TRRN OBSCD MOST OF THE PERIOD.
00Z THU- 12Z FRI...MAINLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS.
12Z FRI- 18Z SAT...VFR AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION.
18Z SAT-00Z SUN...AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE REACHED ON 2/3. HERE`S A
LISTING OF THE CURRENT RECORDS AND THE YEAR OBSERVED.
BURLINGTON, VT49|1991
MONTPELIER, VT55|1991
ST. JOHNSBURY, VT59|1991
MASSENA, NY48|1984
MT MANSFIELD, VT43|1973
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...BANACOS/WGH
CLIMATE...LAHIFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
253 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE ANY PATCHY FOG AND LIGHT
SNOW CHANCES OVERNIGHT.
WV LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN MANITOBA. SOME SNOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE
SHORTWAVE...BUT VISIBILITY READINGS AT WINNIPEG AND BRANDON HAVE
NOT GONE LOWER THAN 3SM...MORE OFTEN 6 MILES OR ABOVE. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BRING SOME LIGHT QPF INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS
EVENING...EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA
TOWARDS MORNING. WILL KEEP SOME 20ISH POPS GOING...BUT DO NOT
THINK WE WILL GET MORE THAN A DUSTING OF SNOWFALL.
THE SHORTWAVE HAS STARTED TO SHOVE SOME STRATUS DOWN INTO OUR
NORTH CENTRAL CWA. SOME LOWERED VISIBILITIES CONTINUE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE STRATUS. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO PATCHY FOG
THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN HANGING ON OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES.
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE ALL MORE AGGRESSIVE ON BRINGING GOOD
925 TO 850MB MOISTURE DOWN INTO THE CWA TONIGHT. HRRR AND TO SOME
EXTENT THE RAP HAVE FOG FORMING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE STRATUS.
THINK THAT SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN TO CENTRAL CWA...WITH THE BEST FOG CHANCES
EVENTUALLY MOVING TO OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA AS THE STRATUS PUSHES
IN FROM THE NORTH. AT THIS POINT THINK THAT THE MAIN FOG WILL BE
ALONG THE FRONT EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THINGS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. WITH CLOUDS AND SOME
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOW 20S OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL TO
OUR SOUTH WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A SLOW COOLING
TREND...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE COOLING TREND CONTINUES AS A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH SETS UP FROM ONTARIO DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP TEMPS THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME OF
THE MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR
WEDNESDAY...SO SLOWED THE COOLING TREND. SOME LIGHT PRECIP IS
KICKED UP BY THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...SO INCLUDED SOME VERY LOW
POPS MAINLY IN THE NORTH FOR MID WEEK...AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IF ANY ACCUMULATION.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...12Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
INDICATING A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE PATTERN THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
EVENTS. GLOBAL MODELS DO INDICATE A FEW PROGRESSIVE UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS LATE IN THE WEEK...WHICH COULD BRING A BIT OF LIGHT
SNOW...SO DO HAVE LOW POPS MENTIONED WED NIGHT AND FRI/FRI NIGHT.
12Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A STRONGER PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING
THE PLAINS LATE NEXT WEEKEND...SO ALSO HAVE LOW POPS DURING THAT
TIME.
RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN POOR WITH DAY TO DAY TEMP
TRENDS LATELY IN THE EXTENDED. THE COLDEST AIR MASS IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA...AND TO WHAT
DEGREE WE TAP THAT COLDER AIR AT TIMES WILL DEPEND ON THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW AIDED BY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS.
LATEST DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF VARY ON THE FLOW ORIENTATION AND TEMP
FIELDS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR LATE WEEK...AND WILL THEREFOR CONTINUE
TO MAINTAIN MODEL CONSENUS TEMPS FOR NOW...REASONABLY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE CEILINGS. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POORLY CAPTURE FOG/CLOUDS...LEADING TO LOW
CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN CLOUD TRENDS. DO EXPECT CONTINUED EROSION OF
FOG AT KTVF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A LOWER (IFR/MVFR) CLOUD DECK IS
SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW CLOUD COVER IN CANADA HAS BEEN MASKED
SOMEWHAT BY HIGHER CLOUDS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...MAKING IT DIFFICULT
TO DELINEATE THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS. IN THE TAFS ATTEMPTED TO
TIME LOW CLOUDS INTO THE SITES...ALTHOUGH HAVE NOT BROUGHT IN THE
LOWER CEILINGS AT KFAR THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE CLOUD DECK. AMENDMENTS WILL BE MADE AS
NECESSARY. OBS ALSO INDICATE A BIT OF FOG ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
CLOUDS...AND SOME FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW ARE POSSIBLE UNDER THE LOWER
CLOUDS...BUT WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS POINT IN THE TAFS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1244 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
MAIN UPDATE WAS TO BUMP UP HIGH TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. ALSO LOWERED SKY COVER MOST
AREAS. THERE IS SOME INCREASING CLOUDS WEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
WITH A FEW REFLECTIVITIES ON RADAR. BUT EXPECT THIS TO BE VERY
LIGHT WITH LITTLE IF ANYTHING REACHING THE GROUND. ALSO SOME
CLOUDS PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 923 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
A FEW WEAK REFLECTIVITIES OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA HAVE
DIMINISHED EVEN MORE IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO. LATEST RAP/HRRR HAVE
ALSO BACKED OFF A BIT ON AFTERNOON SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEST. THERE
IS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON SO
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER...BUT WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW. ALSO LOWERED SKY COVER MOST AREAS THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. WE DID INCREASE
WIND SPEEDS TODAY A BIT OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND INCLUDING IN THE
BOWMAN AND HETTINGER AREAS BASED ON RECENT LAMP GUIDANCE AND MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT DEPICT A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. OTHER-
WISE...RECENT HRRR ITERATIONS SUGGEST WE MIGHT NEED TO INCLUDE LOW
POPS FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN ND WITH A LATER UPDATE
IF THOSE SOLUTIONS STAY CONSISTENT IN SUCCEEDING MODEL CYCLES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
A QUIET DAY FOR THE SHORT TERM.
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A
BIT COOLER TODAY...GENERALLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAYS
READINGS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY. SOME OF THE SHORT
TERM MODELS BRING IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH LATER
TONIGHT AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. IF
ANYTHING DOES FORM IT WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND OF LITTLE IMPACT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY WILL FEATURE COLDER TEMPERATURES...BUT
THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION-MAKERS.
AB0VE-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE BASIC PREMISE OF FLOW ALOFT
THIS WEEK...WHICH WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY WITH EMBEDDED IMPULSES SET
TO CROSS THE REGION ON ABOUT WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON THE 00
UTC GFS AND ECMWF. WE HAVE LOW POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW IN PLAY ACROSS
PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND CENTERED ON THOSE TIME PERIODS IN
RESPECT TO THE EXPECTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGES...BUT THERE WAS
ONLY LIGHT QPF GENERATED WITH THE WAVES IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS
OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. THAT IS NOT SURPRISING AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE
DEVELOPING WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE MAY AMPLIFY IN SUCH A WAY
AS TO PROVIDE A ROADBLOCK FOR HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ALOFT TO BE
ENTRAINED INTO THE WAVES OUT OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC /WHICH DOES
OCCUR IN SOME LESS-AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW REGIMES/. THUS...EVEN
IF SNOW OCCURS WITH THE WAVES...IT WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT AT BEST.
TEMPERATURES ARE SET TOO COOL DOWN WITH FORECAST HIGHS FALLING TO
THE BELOW-NORMAL CATEGORY BY LATE WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A
DISPARITY IN HOW COLD IT WILL ACTUALLY GET...WITH THE ECMWF MODEL
MUCH LESS SUGGESTIVE OF AN ARCTIC SURGE FOLLOWING THE FRIDAY WAVE
THAN THE GFS SOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING/MOVING IN THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME HAVE A HARD TIME
BELIEVING HOW QUICK THIS DEVELOPS GIVEN OUR LACK OF CLOUD COVER
HERE AND UPSTREAM. COLD AIR DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING LOWER STRATUS INTO THE AREA BUT AT THIS TIME WE
HAVE ELECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY DELAY THE ARRIVAL. FOR NOW BROUGHT
MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE NORTH AROUND 12Z MONDAY...WITH LOW VFR
CEILINGS INTO SOUTHERN TAF SITES DURING THE MORNING. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY TO
AROUND 25 MPH AT KDIK THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE MAINLY 10 KNOTS
OR LESS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
933 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 923 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
A FEW WEAK REFLECTIVITIES OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA HAVE
DIMINISHED EVEN MORE IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO. LATEST RAP/HRRR HAVE
ALSO BACKED OFF A BIT ON AFTERNOON SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEST. THERE
IS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON SO
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER...BUT WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW. ALSO LOWERED SKY COVER MOST AREAS THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. WE DID INCREASE
WIND SPEEDS TODAY A BIT OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND INCLUDING IN THE
BOWMAN AND HETTINGER AREAS BASED ON RECENT LAMP GUIDANCE AND MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT DEPICT A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. OTHER-
WISE...RECENT HRRR ITERATIONS SUGGEST WE MIGHT NEED TO INCLUDE LOW
POPS FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN ND WITH A LATER UPDATE
IF THOSE SOLUTIONS STAY CONSISTENT IN SUCCEEDING MODEL CYCLES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
A QUIET DAY FOR THE SHORT TERM.
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A
BIT COOLER TODAY...GENERALLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAYS
READINGS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY. SOME OF THE SHORT
TERM MODELS BRING IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH LATER
TONIGHT AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. IF
ANYTHING DOES FORM IT WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND OF LITTLE IMPACT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY WILL FEATURE COLDER TEMPERATURES...BUT
THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION-MAKERS.
AB0VE-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE BASIC PREMISE OF FLOW ALOFT
THIS WEEK...WHICH WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY WITH EMBEDDED IMPULSES SET
TO CROSS THE REGION ON ABOUT WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON THE 00
UTC GFS AND ECMWF. WE HAVE LOW POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW IN PLAY ACROSS
PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND CENTERED ON THOSE TIME PERIODS IN
RESPECT TO THE EXPECTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGES...BUT THERE WAS
ONLY LIGHT QPF GENERATED WITH THE WAVES IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS
OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. THAT IS NOT SURPRISING AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE
DEVELOPING WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE MAY AMPLIFY IN SUCH A WAY
AS TO PROVIDE A ROADBLOCK FOR HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ALOFT TO BE
ENTRAINED INTO THE WAVES OUT OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC /WHICH DOES
OCCUR IN SOME LESS-AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW REGIMES/. THUS...EVEN
IF SNOW OCCURS WITH THE WAVES...IT WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT AT BEST.
TEMPERATURES ARE SET TOO COOL DOWN WITH FORECAST HIGHS FALLING TO
THE BELOW-NORMAL CATEGORY BY LATE WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A
DISPARITY IN HOW COLD IT WILL ACTUALLY GET...WITH THE ECMWF MODEL
MUCH LESS SUGGESTIVE OF AN ARCTIC SURGE FOLLOWING THE FRIDAY WAVE
THAN THE GFS SOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 923 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
645 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. WE DID INCREASE
WIND SPEEDS TODAY A BIT OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND INCLUDING IN THE
BOWMAN AND HETTINGER AREAS BASED ON RECENT LAMP GUIDANCE AND MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT DEPICT A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. OTHER-
WISE...RECENT HRRR ITERATIONS SUGGEST WE MIGHT NEED TO INCLUDE LOW
POPS FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN ND WITH A LATER UPDATE
IF THOSE SOLUTIONS STAY CONSISTENT IN SUCCEEDING MODEL CYCLES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
A QUIET DAY FOR THE SHORT TERM.
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A
BIT COOLER TODAY...GENERALLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAYS
READINGS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY. SOME OF THE SHORT
TERM MODELS BRING IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH LATER
TONIGHT AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. IF
ANYTHING DOES FORM IT WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND OF LITTLE IMPACT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY WILL FEATURE COLDER TEMPERATURES...BUT
THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION-MAKERS.
AB0VE-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE BASIC PREMISE OF FLOW ALOFT
THIS WEEK...WHICH WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY WITH EMBEDDED IMPULSES SET
TO CROSS THE REGION ON ABOUT WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON THE 00
UTC GFS AND ECMWF. WE HAVE LOW POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW IN PLAY ACROSS
PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND CENTERED ON THOSE TIME PERIODS IN
RESPECT TO THE EXPECTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGES...BUT THERE WAS
ONLY LIGHT QPF GENERATED WITH THE WAVES IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS
OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. THAT IS NOT SURPRISING AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE
DEVELOPING WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE MAY AMPLIFY IN SUCH A WAY
AS TO PROVIDE A ROADBLOCK FOR HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ALOFT TO BE
ENTRAINED INTO THE WAVES OUT OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC /WHICH DOES
OCCUR IN SOME LESS-AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW REGIMES/. THUS...EVEN
IF SNOW OCCURS WITH THE WAVES...IT WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT AT BEST.
TEMPERATURES ARE SET TOO COOL DOWN WITH FORECAST HIGHS FALLING TO
THE BELOW-NORMAL CATEGORY BY LATE WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A
DISPARITY IN HOW COLD IT WILL ACTUALLY GET...WITH THE ECMWF MODEL
MUCH LESS SUGGESTIVE OF AN ARCTIC SURGE FOLLOWING THE FRIDAY WAVE
THAN THE GFS SOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
946 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
.DISCUSSION...
NARROW BAND OF INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALFOT AS UPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY PASSES. THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND BROADER AREA OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT FROM NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA NOT LONG AFTER MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY REMAIN,
BUT WINDS WILL TURN WEST, THEN NORTH NORTHWEST LATER BEHIND THE
FRONT. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT MOSTLY THE HRRR AND
RADAR TRENDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 63 43 52 27 / 10 60 0 0
HOBART OK 62 39 50 26 / 10 60 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 72 43 56 29 / 0 50 0 0
GAGE OK 54 34 40 20 / 40 40 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 60 42 48 25 / 10 60 0 0
DURANT OK 70 49 61 32 / 0 30 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
09/26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
730 PM EST MON FEB 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...PUSHING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE ON COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
FALL OVER YORK/LANCASTER COUNTIES AS OF 00Z. LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION
AND HRRR BOTH INDICATE THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN WILL EXIT
LANCASTER CO ARND 01Z.
HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRIER AIR MASS WILL NOSE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND ALLOWING TEMPS TO
DROP BACK INTO THE 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES RIDGE OVR PA WILL SUPPLY THE REGION WITH FAIR WX TUESDAY.
A MSUNNY MORNING WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
LATER IN THE DAY...AS CIRRUS ARRIVES IN ADVANCE OF POTENT STORM
SYS OVR THE PLAINS. GEFS MEAN 925 TEMPS NR 0C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX
TEMPS IN THE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A BROAD...LONGWAVE
TROF PATTERN IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES EARLY IN THIS WEEK. THE TROF IS FORECAST TO BE
PROGRESSIVE...AIDED BY AND RE-PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY...CROSSING THE PLAINS MIDWEEK AND REACHING THE OH/TN
VALLEYS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THINGS DRYING OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH FOCUS SHIFTING TO STRONG STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
TRACK FROM THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
INTO EASTERN CANADA. CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF
THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL DRAMATICALLY REDUCE THE CURRENT SNOWPACK
OVER SOUTHERN MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY.
MODEL BLENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIP ON
WEDNESDAY AND MAINTAINED HIGH POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO BE FOCUSING A MOD-HVY RAINFALL AXIS ALONG AND TO THE
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHICH SEEMS TIED TO STRONG H85 MSTR FLUX
ANOMS CENTERED WITHIN 40-50KT SWLY PRE-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL JET. THE
FRONTAL BAND PCPN COULD BE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WITH WARM SECTOR
PROGGED TO SURGE WELL INTO NEW ENGLAND. FCST MAX TEMPS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE 48-58F RANGE WHICH COULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY.
ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD A DECENT SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
MIDWEEK SYSTEM STARTING THURSDAY /WITH A QUICK SHOT FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/ FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO TUE...AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
EVEN WITH THE DRY AIR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...THERE COULD BE
SOME FOG...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST LATE...GIVEN THE WET
GROUND...AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME CHC OF FOG ACROSS THE SE...WHERE
THERE IS SOME SNOW LEFT.
OUTLOOK...
WED...MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR. RAIN SHOWERS. LLWS. GUSTY WINDS
25+KT FROM 160-190 DEGREES SHIFTING TO 270-300 WED PM BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.
THU...MVFR CIGS/SCT -SHSN WEST. VFR CENTRAL-EAST. LIGHTER WINDS.
FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
LATEST MODEL ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
POTENTIAL RISK FOR SMALL STREAM FLOODING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY/FEBRUARY 3-4. MARFC IS
HIGHLIGHTING THIS THREAT IN THEIR SIGNIFICANT FLOOD OUTLOOK. THE
MAIN AREA OF CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS ACROSS THE JUNIATA AND LOWER
MAIN STEM SUSQUEHANNA BASINS. THE FLOOD RISK WILL BE A COMBINATION
OF SNOWMELT/SATURATED GROUND AND FORECAST MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ056-057-059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN
HYDROLOGY...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
707 PM EST MON FEB 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...PUSHING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE ON COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
FALL OVER YORK/LANCASTER COUNTIES AS OF 00Z. LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION
AND HRRR BOTH INDICATE THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN WILL EXIT
LANCASTER CO ARND 01Z.
HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRIER AIR MASS WILL NOSE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND ALLOWING TEMPS TO
DROP BACK INTO THE 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES RIDGE OVR PA WILL SUPPLY THE REGION WITH FAIR WX TUESDAY.
A MSUNNY MORNING WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
LATER IN THE DAY...AS CIRRUS ARRIVES IN ADVANCE OF POTENT STORM
SYS OVR THE PLAINS. GEFS MEAN 925 TEMPS NR 0C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX
TEMPS IN THE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A BROAD...LONGWAVE
TROF PATTERN IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES EARLY IN THIS WEEK. THE TROF IS FORECAST TO BE
PROGRESSIVE...AIDED BY AND RE-PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY...CROSSING THE PLAINS MIDWEEK AND REACHING THE OH/TN
VALLEYS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THINGS DRYING OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH FOCUS SHIFTING TO STRONG STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
TRACK FROM THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
INTO EASTERN CANADA. CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF
THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL DRAMATICALLY REDUCE THE CURRENT SNOWPACK
OVER SOUTHERN MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY.
MODEL BLENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIP ON
WEDNESDAY AND MAINTAINED HIGH POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO BE FOCUSING A MOD-HVY RAINFALL AXIS ALONG AND TO THE
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHICH SEEMS TIED TO STRONG H85 MSTR FLUX
ANOMS CENTERED WITHIN 40-50KT SWLY PRE-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL JET. THE
FRONTAL BAND PCPN COULD BE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WITH WARM SECTOR
PROGGED TO SURGE WELL INTO NEW ENGLAND. FCST MAX TEMPS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE 48-58F RANGE WHICH COULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY.
ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD A DECENT SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
MIDWEEK SYSTEM STARTING THURSDAY /WITH A QUICK SHOT FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/ FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST OF THE AREA VFR NOW.
STILL A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE.
21Z TAFS SENT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
POST FRONTAL CIGS REMAIN MVFR OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM THE
LAURELS NORTHWARD...WHILE MAINLY BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN
3000-10000` AFFECT THE REMAINING TERMINALS OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN FLYING AREA. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL AREA OF VISIBILITIES IN
THE 3-5 MILE RANGE ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
TRACKING THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF
BY EVENING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO VFR AT ALL
SITES EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...VFR. RAIN/MVFR-IFR CIGS/LLWS DEVELOPING TUESDAY NIGHT.
WED...MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR. RAIN SHOWERS. LLWS. GUSTY WINDS
25+KT FROM 160-190 DEGREES SHIFTING TO 270-300 WED PM BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.
THU...MVFR CIGS/SCT -SHSN WEST. VFR CENTRAL-EAST. LIGHTER WINDS.
FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
LATEST MODEL ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
POTENTIAL RISK FOR SMALL STREAM FLOODING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY/FEBRUARY 3-4. MARFC IS
HIGHLIGHTING THIS THREAT IN THEIR SIGNIFICANT FLOOD OUTLOOK. THE
MAIN AREA OF CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS ACROSS THE JUNIATA AND LOWER
MAIN STEM SUSQUEHANNA BASINS. THE FLOOD RISK WILL BE A COMBINATION
OF SNOWMELT/SATURATED GROUND AND FORECAST MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ056-057-059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
307 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
CURRENTLY SEEING ABOUT A 10-15 DEGREE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE RIDGES
AND THE VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING. A LOW LEVEL JET OF ABOUT 30-35
KTS IS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. IN THE VALLEYS...CALM WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE
LEAD TO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE HAS MOVED OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH LOW PRESSURE BACK TO
THE WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS
THE SURFACE LOW TO THE WEST MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST.
THESE WINDS WILL ADVECT IN WARM AIR AND MOISTURE. FOR HIGHS TODAY
WENT A BIT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE WITH THE CONTINUED WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HIGHS HAVE SOARED WELL ABOVE
FORECAST HIGHS THANKS TO STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND AN AMPLE SUPPLY
ON INSOLATION...AND DO NOT EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH DIFFERENT
TODAY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE SOME LATE IN THE DAY BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY IN THE LOW 70S.
PW VALUES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 0.7-0.9 INCH RANGE LATE
TONIGHT...WHICH IS NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.
MODEL SOUNDING INDICATE THAT THE MOISTURE IS LIMITED ABOVE 700 MB
AND THEREFORE EXPECT ANY RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT. MODELS DO NOT SHOW
THE BEST MOISTURE MOVING IN UNTIL AFTER 06Z AND HAVE BEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE PLATEAU LATE TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW THAT SATURATION WILL BE
A SLOW PROCESS FROM WEST TO EAST AND SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST
TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA MAY NOT EXPERIENCE ANY
PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER 12Z. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE
AVERAGE TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL
MIXED. LOWS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
WEAK COLD FRONT PROGGED INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. MODELS TRENDING
TOWARD STRETCHING THE FRONT OUT ALONG THE TN/KY BORDER...LESSENING
IT`S IMPACT AND IT`S PRECIP CHANCES OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL
THEREFORE...KEEP LIKELY POPS OVER NORTHERN THIRD WITH DECREASING
POPS AS YOU MOVE FURTHER SOUTH. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE
AREA INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MAIN SYSTEM OF CONCERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WILL BE A STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH AROUND THE
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE
IN WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT FOR CHANCE POPS TUESDAY. MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SLOWING THIS SYSTEM AND IT NOW APPEARS TO
MOVE IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE
THEREFORE...LOWERED POPS TUESDAY EVENING...INCREASING POPS THROUGH
THE NIGHT FOR LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS BY SUNRISE. A STRONG 850MB
JET OF 50 TO 60KTS ACCOMPANIES THIS FRONT AND AS IT MOVES
IN...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND NORMALLY FAVORED FOOTHILLS. A WIND ADVISORY
AND POTENTIALLY A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. INSTABILITY UNIMPRESSIVE...BUT SPEED SHEAR AND UPPER JET
DYNAMICS MAY ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THE STRONG WINDS
MAY LIMIT VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION...BUT ANY SHOWER OR
STORM THAT DOES REACH INTO THE HIGHER WINDS MAY PRODUCE STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE FRONT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WITH A BRIEF RIDGE
BUILDING IN FOR THE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 68 55 66 53 / 10 40 40 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 69 53 61 47 / 0 40 50 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 67 54 61 47 / 10 50 50 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 66 45 58 43 / 0 30 60 30
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
MA/MJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
834 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
.DISCUSSION...SEE MARINE DISCUSSION.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS HAVE PICKED UP OVER THE BAYS/NEARSHORE TO WHERE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED...AS WINDS FROM LOW LEVEL JET
ARE MIXING DOWN. HRRR MODEL SHOWING WINDS KICKING UP 25 TO 30
KNOTS LATER TONIGHT OFFSHORE. CONSIDERING WINDS ARE BEING
UNDERESTIMATED BY OTHER MODELS...HAVE LEANT MORE TOWARD HIGHER
WINDS OFFSHORE. STILL BELOW GALE FORCE (COULD HAVE OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS) BUT FARTHER OFFSHORE LESS MIXING LIKELY DUE TO
BETTER MARINE LAYER. HOWEVER...WINDS/SEAS OFFSHORE WILL BE SCA TIL
ABOUT MID MORNING SO HAVE EXTENDED THE OFFSHORE SCA TIL 9 AM. HAVE
UPDATED COASTALS AND MWW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016/
DISCUSSION...ALLOWED RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE (AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH EWX/BRO). LOOKS GOOD BUT THERE WILL BE ELEVATED
CONDITIONS FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE RH AND WINDS BRING
CONDITIONS TO BELOW ELEVATED LEVELS. DID ADJUST GRIDS A BIT
(WARMER OUT WEST THAN FORECAST...COOLER EAST)...BUT OVERALL LET
THE FORECAST W.R.T. MAIN WEATHER PARAMETERS (LOWS/TIMING OF
FRONT/RAIN CHANCES ETC).
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016/
DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF FCST FOR KLRD/KALI WITH LOW TO
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR KCRP/KVCT. AREAS OF STRATUS XPCTD TO DVLP
AND SPREAD N ALONG THE TX COAST THIS EVENING WITH MVFR CIGS
ALREADY IMPACTNG KVCT...WITH LOWERING CIGS XPCTD THRU THE EVENING
/LIKELY TO IFR AT TIMES/. KCRP CURRENTLY FEW025 BUT STRATUS
SHOULD DVLP BY MID/LATE EVENING WITH CIGS AT MVFR /POSSIBLE IFR/
LEVELS. KLRD/KALI SHOULD REMAIN SKC THIS EVENING WITH STRATUS
POSSIBLY APPROACHING KALI AROUND 06Z. STRONG/GUSTY SRLY WINDS TO
IMPACT KCRP/KVCT/KALI THIS EVENING AS STRONG SRLY LLJ DVLPS...WITH
WEAKER WINDS AT KLRD. OVERNIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST AT KLRD SHORTLY AFTER 06Z AND REACHING THE
COAST LATE IN THE NIGHT. FRONT WILL CLEAR CIGS OUT WITH SKC MOST
OF THE DAYLIGHT HRS TUES. GUSTY NW WINDS AN HR OR SO AFTER FROPA
WITH DECREASING WIND SPEEDS THRU THE DAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...IMMEDIATE FORECAST
CONCERN IS THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED BETWEEN 20 AND
25 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH AS RH/S HAVE FALLEN BETWEEN 15
AND 25 PERCENT. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATER THIS
EVENING AS RH VALUES SLOWLY RECOVER. WINDS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY KEEP WIDESPREAD FOG FROM
DEVELOPING...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE...
THINKING WITH RESPECT TO COLD FRONT TIMING HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH.
BOUNDARY WILL ENTER NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT
AND SHOULD PUSH OFF THE COAST AROUND 6AM. PRIOR TO THE
FRONT...STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL OCCUR TONIGHT RESULTING IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER BOTH THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FAR EASTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA ALONG THE FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO
WARM INTO THE 70S DESPITE THE FRONT ARRIVING IN THE MORNING. MUCH
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL LEAD
TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN MOST LOCATIONS. COOLER AIR
ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE 40S.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE MAIN H5 TROUGH SWINGS FARTHER EAST...WITH
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AS
A REINFORCEMENT HIGH SLIDES INTO THE REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT RISES
SUGGEST A BREEZIER DAY THAN COMPUTER MODEL WINDS ARE OUTPUTTING...SO
HAVE INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY...BUT AS OF CURRENT WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA. HOWEVER ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WEATHER WILL
STILL EXIST...ESPECIALLY FOR THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. THINGS MAY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS. THE GRADIENT
WILL THEN RELAX THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE NEXT H5 TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN
MEXICO...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS MEXICO. A PERSISTENT EAST-
NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WEDGED BETWEEN THE SFC
LOW TO THE WEST...SFC HIGH TO THE EAST...AND A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST. THIS WILL RETURN MOISTURE
TO THE AREA BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE HAVING TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH DRYING THINGS
OUT...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH DRIER CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 60S BY WEDNESDAY WITH CAA...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID-30S/LOW-40S. NOT GOING TOO LOW
WITH TEMPERATURES AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AS WINDS MAY BE A BIT TOO
ELEVATED TO LET TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RAISE ONLY SLIGHTLY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A GENERALLY E-NE FLOW REMAINS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 60 78 44 65 41 / 10 10 0 0 0
VICTORIA 59 74 40 61 35 / 20 10 0 0 0
LAREDO 57 76 43 68 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALICE 58 78 41 64 39 / 10 10 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 61 74 45 62 43 / 10 10 0 0 0
COTULLA 53 74 40 64 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 59 79 42 65 40 / 10 10 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 62 75 48 62 45 / 10 10 0 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
GW/86...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1003 PM MST SAT JAN 30 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY AND MILD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AS A STRONG
WINTER STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE TO OUR WEST. THIS STORM WILL
ARRIVE MONDAY...PRODUCING VERY STRONG WINDS AND USHERING IN MUCH
COLDER WEATHER. SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
GILA EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDING INTO
THE BOOTHEEL REGION OF NEW MEXICO. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THE SNOW
AND RAIN EAST ALONG WITH POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE
DAY. A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES DROP TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DRIER
WEATHER AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.UPDATED DISCUSSION...
DECIDED TO CANCEL WIND ADVISORY FOR WESTERN OTERO COUNTY AND EASTERN
EL PASO COUNTY. CAN`T FIND ANY MESONET SITES ALONG EAST SLOPES OF
FRANKLINS OVER 20 MPH GUSTS AT THIS TIME. EAST SLOPES OF ORGANS
CLOSER TO ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT HRRR SHOWS WINDS DIMINISHING...
HOWEVER THEY PICK UP SOME AGAIN AFTER 09Z. EAST SLOPES OF THE SACS
STILL SHOW GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. HRRR SHOWS GUSTS IN THIS AREA OVER 50
MPH THROUGH ABOUT 10Z BEFORE DIMINISHING...AND MOUNTAIN TOP WIND
FLOW DOESN`T REALLY BEGIN WEAKENING UNTIL 16Z.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE LATEST SUITE OF FORECAST MODELS HAS
ARRIVED WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EVOLUTION OF OUR UPCOMING
WINTER STORM SYSTEM.
THEREFORE WE WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
REGARDING PRECIP TIMING AND LOCATION TO INCLUDE A FEW LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO TUESDAY.
IN GENERAL STRONG ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN
CONUS BEING AIDED BY AN IMPRESSIVE 130 KNOT EASTERN PACIFIC JET
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. A COMBINATION OF HIGHER SPEED WESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING SOUTHERN COLORADO IS
HELPING TO DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND
AN ASSOCIATED LEE SIDE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. THIS HAS TIGHTENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS RESULTING IN STRONG AND GUSTY
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THESE WINDS ARE ALSO BEING
HELPED ALONG BY THE MIXING DOWN OF STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS UP AROUND 700 MB. THIS SUPPORTS THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY
THAT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS EAST
SLOPE AREAS OF OTERO AND EL PASO COUNTIES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BEGIN TO RELAX LATER TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW AND LEE
TROUGH SHIFT EAST...HOWEVER THE 800-700 MB FLOW WILL REMAIN
STRONG OVERNIGHT...HENCE THE CONTINUATION OF THE WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE SACRAMENTOS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
FOR SUNDAY A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO FORM ALONG THE WEST
COAST AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE
PACIFIC JET. WHILE LOCALLY THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
WEAKER THAN TODAY...STRONG FLOW IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
AS A RESULT WINDS WILL LIKELY BE ALMOST AS STRONG SUNDAY AS THEY
WERE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE WITH
AFTERNOON READINGS AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL
PUSH RH VALUES DOWN RESULTING IN AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER RISK.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL DEEPEN FURTHER
AS IT APPROACHES THE 4 CORNERS REGION. WHILE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WILL NOT BE VERY PLENTIFUL WITH THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM...WESTERN
ZONES WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE APPROACHING
JET. THE RESULTING LIFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE LOWLAND
RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW PRIOR TO SUNRISE MONDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME NEW SURFACE CYCLOGENISIS WILL BE TAKING PLACE OVER
NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EAST MONDAY DRAGGING
A FAIRLY POTENT PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. ADDITIONAL LIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE PRECIP
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES AND SHOULD HELP GENERATE AT
LEAST SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR POINTS EAST. AT THE SAME TIME
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FLOW IN BEHIND THE FRONT HELPING TO LOWER
SNOW LEVELS ACROSS THE GILA FROM AROUND 7000 FEET TO BETWEEN 4000
AND 5000 FEET BY MIDDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FEET AND 1 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE 5000
FEET ACROSS THE GILA. MEANWHILE SNOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
SACRAMENTOS DURING THE DAY MONDAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE MOSTLY
USED UP BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM ARRIVES ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES
MEANING LESSER SNOW TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL FALL OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SACRAMENTOS.
THE OTHER BIG IMPACT FROM THIS APPROACHING WINTER STORM WILL BE
EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS FOR JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK THE JET WILL BE NOSING INTO THE BOOTHEEL REGION
WITH 700 MB WINDS OF 60 TO 70 KNOTS AND 850 MB FLOW OF 40 KNOTS
PLUS. THESE ELEVATED WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING EAST AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. JUST ABOUT ALL THE MODELS SUPPORT
SURFACE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 60 MPH OR MORE ALONG
AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN
PLACE FOR ALL BUT THE GILA REGION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY AS
THESE WIND SPEEDS COULD CERTAINLY CAUSE DAMAGE. EVEN IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT
MEANING THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. OVER THE GILA WINDS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO RESULT IN
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. IT IS NOT YET CLEAR IF BLIZZARD
CRITERIA WILL BE MET...BUT REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW WILL
BE LIKELY. IN ADDITION BLOWING DUST WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR THE
LOWLANDS MONDAY AS THE STRONG WINDS MOVE THROUGH AND VISIBILITIES
DROP.
BY TUESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING EAST ALLOWING FOR
LIGHTER WINDS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPS. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER
INTO TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GILA AND SACRAMENTOS AS
MODELS NOW SHOW SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY TRACKING IN ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL BASICALLY KEEP US UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH AND THE COLDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. WHILE DRY WEATHER WILL ENSUE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH ONLY A SLOW DAY TO DAY
MODERATION EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 31/00Z-01/00Z...
P6SM FEW150-200 SCT200-250 THRU PD. WINDS WILL BE 240-270 AROUND 15-
20G30KTS THRU NIGHT WITH STRONGEST WINDS ON EASTERN SLOPES...THEN
INCREASING TO 20-25G35KTS AFT 16Z. AREAS OF 3-5SM BLDU POSSIBLE AFT
18Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH OFF THE WEST
COAST WILL LEAD TO WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY WILL WARM UP ONCE AGAIN TO MID 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE
LOWLANDS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 15 PERCENT WITH THE
LOWEST RH`S EAST BUT WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH GOING AND EVALUATE AGAIN IN THE MORNING. COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH MONDAY WITH SOME LOWLAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE GILA.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DECREASING WINDS EACH DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 49 73 50 56 / 0 0 0 30
SIERRA BLANCA 40 71 38 64 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 35 69 45 52 / 0 0 0 30
ALAMOGORDO 39 68 44 53 / 0 0 0 40
CLOUDCROFT 30 49 32 33 / 0 0 10 80
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 40 68 45 49 / 0 0 0 50
SILVER CITY 32 58 33 36 / 0 0 60 80
DEMING 35 68 43 49 / 0 0 0 60
LORDSBURG 33 66 40 44 / 0 0 30 70
WEST EL PASO METRO 43 72 46 55 / 0 0 0 30
DELL CITY 43 72 40 62 / 0 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 45 75 44 66 / 0 0 0 10
LOMA LINDA 43 68 43 54 / 0 0 0 30
FABENS 45 74 47 61 / 0 0 0 20
SANTA TERESA 39 72 43 55 / 0 0 0 30
WHITE SANDS HQ 40 70 44 53 / 0 0 0 30
JORNADA RANGE 35 69 43 52 / 0 0 0 30
HATCH 39 69 44 50 / 0 0 0 40
COLUMBUS 37 70 42 52 / 0 0 0 40
OROGRANDE 41 70 44 56 / 0 0 0 30
MAYHILL 38 58 38 42 / 0 0 0 60
MESCALERO 31 50 36 40 / 0 0 10 70
TIMBERON 34 55 37 42 / 0 0 0 60
WINSTON 38 59 35 40 / 0 0 40 80
HILLSBORO 41 65 40 44 / 0 0 30 80
SPACEPORT 38 70 42 50 / 0 0 0 40
LAKE ROBERTS 28 56 31 36 / 0 0 70 80
HURLEY 33 61 34 39 / 0 0 40 80
CLIFF 28 60 33 41 / 0 0 80 70
MULE CREEK 28 61 32 39 / 0 0 80 80
FAYWOOD 35 62 35 41 / 0 0 30 80
ANIMAS 38 69 40 46 / 0 0 30 50
HACHITA 38 69 40 48 / 0 0 10 50
ANTELOPE WELLS 41 69 42 46 / 0 0 10 60
CLOVERDALE 37 64 38 42 / 0 0 40 70
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR NMZ111-112.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR NMZ413.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR NMZ413>416.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
NMZ403>412-417.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR NMZ414>416.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ055-056.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR TXZ419.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR TXZ419.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
TXZ418-420>424.
&&
$$
HEFNER...UPDATED
LANEY/GRZYWACZ...PREVIOUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
731 PM EST MON FEB 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OVERHEAD THIS EVENING...AND MOVE SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY MIDNIGHT. THIS FRONT SHOULD STALL AND
RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN...AND
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER SHOULD FOLLOW LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM EST MONDAY...
COLD FRONT HAD ADVANCED INTO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER COLDER SNOW WAS PRODUCING AREAS OF FOG IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME STATIONS REPORTING VISIBILITIES LESS THAN
ONE HALF MILE. HRRR...18Z LOCAL WRF AND LATEST RUC GUIDANCE HAD
THE AREA OF SHOWERS THAT WAS OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA AT
7PM...MOVING EAST OUT OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BY 03Z/10PM. AS
WEDGE BECOME ESTABLISHED FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL COVER MORE OF THE
EASTERN UPSLOPE REGION OVERNIGHT.
BY TUESDAY...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND OVERRUNNING WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WILL KEEP LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
CLOUDY AND DRIZZLY. AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE
CAROLINAS...THE COOL WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN
PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE HELD BELOW GUIDANCE TO MAINLY LOWER
40S TO MID 50S ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AS THE DIURNAL
RANGE SHOULD BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...FAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA SHOULD
STAY FREE OF THE COOL WEDGE AND REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES...IN RESPONSE TO A HEALTHY LOW
LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THUS...WIND GUSTS COULD INCREASE TO 30 MPH BY THE EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EST MONDAY...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...CROSSING
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY. A STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL JET IS PROGGED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...85H WINDS OF 50-65KTS.
EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A LINGERING WEDGE...SO THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE THE INVERSION. WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE FROM TENNESSEE
UP THROUGH FAR WESTERN VA INTO PARTS OF WV...THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY
MIX TO THE SURFACE...WITH GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH. THIS WILL MAINLY
IMPACT AREAS WEST OF MOUNTAIN EMPIRE VA...SMYTH...TAZEWELL COUNTIES
IN VA TOWARD BRISTOL...AND MAINLY WEST OF THE NC/TN BORDER. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO IN FAVOR OF A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THAT AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND UP UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WEDNESDAY.
RAIN POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ADVERTISED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA...ESP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY.
MODEL QPF IS FOR BETWEEN A HALF /0.50/ TO ONE INCH /1.00/ OF
RAIN...ENOUGH TO CAUSE STREAMS TO RISE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO FLOOD.
AREAS WHICH STILL HAVE SNOW COVER...PARTICULARLY THE GREENBRIER
VALLEY OF WV...WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS THERE IS
APPROXIMATELY AN INCH /1.00/ OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT REMAINING IN THE
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS OF SOUTHEAST WVA. AN INCH OF RAIN
PLUS AND INCH OF SNOW MELT WILL LIKELY CAUSE A SUBSTANTIAL RISE
ALONG THE GREENBRIER RIVER...MODELS SUGGESTING 3/4 BANK FULL.
MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...BY ABOUT
3 HOURS COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS...SUGGESTING THE FRONT
WILL COME THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS MID-DAY 1200-1400 LST...THEN
CLEARING THE PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING...1800-2100 LST. PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO THE WIND THREAT IN THE WEST. RAIN
SHOULD ALSO COME TO AN END WITHIN AN HOUR OF TWO OF FROPA.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THIS FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING OFF SHORE. EVEN IF A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH SOME OF THE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING...IT SHOULD BE JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST NOT TO IMPACT OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH ANYTHING OTHER THAN CLOUD COVER. THAT
SAID...THERE WILL BE FLURRIES ACROSS OUR MOUNTAINS AS COLDER AIR
ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST...THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER
YIELDING TO DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH AS 85H TEMPERATURES SLIP INTO
THE M8 TO M12 DEG C RANGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST MONDAY...
A TREND TOWARD MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...MODELS STILL SOMEWHAT
TROUBLESOME ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST. AN EASTERN CONUS LONG WAVE TROUGH IS DESTINED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH VARIED AMOUNTS OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY
PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH THE FLOW. THE QUESTION...WILL ANY OF THIS
ENERGY SPAWN SOMETHING THAT WOULD PRODUCE MORE THAN JUST THE TYPICAL
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. UNTIL THE MODELS RESOLVE THIS ISSUE...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF ANY SPECIFIC
FEATURE. OF MORE CERTAINTY IS THE FACT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
COLDER...PROBABLY ENDING UP WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EST MONDAY...
BCB/LWB/BLF HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS THIS
EVENING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES WILL DROP TO IFR
OVERNIGHT. A COOL EASTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY WILL KEEP CEILINGS LOW
AND MAY EVEN BRING SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. OPTIMISTIC THAT CEILINGS WILL RECOVER TO MVFR
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. A DOWNSLOPING SE FLOW AT BLF
WILL HAVE WINDS GUSTING 20-25KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY...AND IT PROMISES
TO BRING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AND A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN. BY
THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TO PROVIDE COLDER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS...AND ALSO PROVIDE A RECOVERY TO VFR CONDITIONS
AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 645 PM EST MONDAY...
THE KFCX RADAR IS BACK IN SERVICE...BUT IS NOT STABLE AND MAY FAIL
AT ANY TIME. TECHNICIANS CONTINUE TO WORK TO RESTORE THE RADAR.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...AMS/PW
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...CF/PW
EQUIPMENT...AMS/CF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1106 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION
TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
MANY ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH TODAY WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION
TYPES LATER TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON CLIMBED INTO
THE 40S AT MOST PLACES. THE LAST CHECK OF ROAD TEMPERATURES
WERE WELL INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50. ALSO...THE OTHER MAJOR
PROBLEM WILL BE IF THERE WILL BE PRECIPITATION WILL IT WILL
GET COLD ENOUGH FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION.
MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATER TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST HRRRR AND RAP MODELS DO NOT PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION INTO THIS REGION WHERE IT WOULD GET COLD ENOUGH
FOR FREEZING RAIN...SLEET OR SNOW. CONTEMPLATED ISSUING A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MARATHON UP THROUGH NORTHERN MARINETTE
COUNTY...BUT THE FACT THE MESO MODELS DO NOT PRODUCE PRECIPITATION
MADE ME HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY. IF THE GFS/ECMWF IS
CORRECT...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD LATE TONIGHT FOR SOME FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET OR SNOW THAT COULD MAKE ROADS SLICK.
THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
WENT WITH THE THREE HOURLY TEMPERATURES ON GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
AND CLOSER TO THE MAV GUIDANCE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
30S AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TRACKING AWAY FROM WISCONSIN
SUNDAY NIGHT...ENDING PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST AS
PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA BY
THE EVENING HOURS. NORTH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW WILL BRING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SNOWBELT REGION ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE LOW HEADING
FOR THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE PRIOR 00Z
MODEL RUNS...THE 12Z SUITE OF RUNS HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW. THE LONE EXCEPTION IS
THE VERY SLOW NAM WHICH HAS MOST OF THE CWA DRY THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN EVEN THE PREVIOUSLY SLOWER CANADIAN HAS LATCHED
ONTO THIS FASTER SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS THE HEAVY SNOW INTO THE
AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WILL PUT SOME RESOLUTION INTO THE
TUESDAY POP GRID AND GO WITH LOWER POPS IN THE MORNING...AND RAMP
THEM UP IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...THE VERY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AS MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW GETS GOING ACROSS THE
REGION.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS TRACK THE LOW A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN
YESTERDAYS RUNS...TRACKING THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL LAKE
MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN OVER LAKE HURON INTO CANADA ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WESTWARD JOG MAKES SENSE AS THE NORTHERN STREAM
LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO PULL THE SOUTHERN
STREAM LOW CLOSER WEST. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING
THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING...HOWEVER WITH A RELATIVELY DECENT
CONSENSUS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE DRY SLOT LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST OFF TO THE EAST
ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CONTINUED BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
THE LOW RAPIDLY TRACKS AWAY FROM THE AREA TOWARDS WESTERN QUEBEC
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH THE CONTINUED TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THIS WILL LIKELY MAKE SNOW REMOVAL AND TRAVEL DIFFICULT
THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION A NORTH NORTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT WILL TURN ON THE LAKE SUPERIOR SNOW BELT
REGION...BOOSTING TOTALS ACROSS THAT AREA ON WEDNESDAY. OVERALL IT
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE DRY SLOT
COULD STILL PLAY A ROLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER
WEST...WHICH IS A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE NORTHERN
STREAM LOW. THE DRY SLOT WOULD TEND TO HOLD DOWN
TOTALS...THEREFORE THERE IS RECITANCE IN PUTTING MORE SOLID
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DOWN AT THIS JUNCTURE.
BEHIND THE LOW A COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES PLUNGE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS BELOW ZERO FOR
THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEKEND. SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND LAKE EFFECT WILL
BRING SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES TO THE REGION
FOR THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER THESE
SYSTEMS WILL HAVE MEAGER MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL DURING THE LATE PART OF THE EXTENDED IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016
LIGHT RAIN WILL PRODUCE LOWERING CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BECOME IFR WHERE
RAIN IS FALLING FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND MVFR ELSEWHERE. THE RAIN
COULD CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE IT ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......RDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1032 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 817 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016
UPPER LOW EJECTING ONTO THE PLAINS THIS EVENING...WITH SURFACE AND
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR/JUST EAST OF PUEBLO. HAVE CONTEMPLATED
LOWERING WINTER STORM WARNINGS OVER INTERIOR VALLEYS AND PLAINS
SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER...THOUGH WITH HRRR CONTINUING TO
INSIST WRAP-AROUND SNOW BUILDING SOUTH ALONG I25 TO AT LEAST
WALSENBURG OVERNIGHT...WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT WARNING
CONFIGURATION FOR NOW. SNOW BANDS PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR. NORTH WINDS HAVE
BEGUN TO INCREASE MANY AREAS...AND EXPECT BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW
TO BECOME A PROBLEM ALONG AND EAST OF I25 OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016
...MORE SNOW ON THE WAY...PARTICULARLY FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA...
UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CO WITH
SFC LOW TAKING SHAPE DOWN AROUND KTAD. DRY SLOT AROUND THE SOUTHERN
SLIDE OF THE SYSTEM HAS WRAPPED NORTHWARD INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR...AND DEFORMATION BAND SNOW HAS STARTED
TO PUSH TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO NE CO. STILL SEEING
A FAIRLY DECENT FETCH OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND WEB CAMS HAVE SHOWN
SOME BOUTS OF HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES...BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN A
LITTLE TOO WARM FOR MUCH ACCUMULATION JUST YET. MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING AND DEEPENING THE UPPER LOW AS IT
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CO INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE
BY 06Z. AS THIS OCCURS...FORECAST AREA WILL COME UNDER THE COLDER
WRAP AROUND PORTION OF THE STORM WITH SNOW PIVOTING DOWN THE WEST
SIDE...BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TONIGHT. SO ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS APPEAR TO BE DONE WITH THIS
STORM...THERE IS STILL A SECOND WAVE TO GO...AND LATEST HRRR SHOWS
SNOW SPREADING BACK SOUTHWARD INTO THE KPUB AREA AND INTO LAS ANIMAS
AND BACA COUNTIES LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH THIS SECOND WAVE AND THAT IS WHEN THE
BLOWING SNOW WILL BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN. WINDS IN LATEST MODEL
SUITES APPEAR TO STAY JUST BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR A BLIZZARD
WARNING...BUT IT COULD COME CLOSE IN KIOWA COUNTY WHERE SOME THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS PROGGED TO OCCUR. WINDS LOOK A LITTLE TOO LIGHT IN
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY AT THIS POINT. BUT THIS WILL BEAR CLOSE
WATCHING THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE WRAP AROUND WILL BE THE MOST CHALLENGING PART
OF THIS FORECAST. LATEST HRRR DOES PULL H7 WINDS AROUND FROM THE NE
THIS EVENING...SUGGESTING ANOTHER ROUND OF UPSLOPE FOR THE WET
MOUNTAINS/WET MTN VALLEY/POSSIBLY NORTHERN SANGRES....BUT IT DOESN`T
APPEAR TO SPREAD FAR ENOUGH WEST TO AFFECT MORE THAN JUST THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. GIVEN THE VALLEY CENTER AND
WESTERN PORTIONS MAY MISS OUT ON THE SECOND WAVE OF THE STORM...HAVE
OPTED TO DOWNGRADE THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. WILL LEAVE ALL OTHER HIGHLIGHTS UNCHANGED. ANOTHER AREA
THAT MAY GET SLIGHTED FROM THIS EVENT WILL BE THE SOUTHERN SANGRES
AND THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR FROM WALSENBURG TO KTAD...BUT ITS
STILL TOO SOON TO SAY AT THIS POINT. THIS AREA MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 06Z BEFORE THEY GET THEIR NEXT CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATIONS. STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE SHOULD BEGIN TO SHADOW
SOUTHERN EL PASO AND PUEBLO COUNTIES AFTER 3 AM...WITH A DOWNWARD
TREND IN THE SNOWFALL FOR THESE AREAS TOWARDS EARLY MORNING.
WILL ALSO MAINTAIN THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS ALONG THE
CONTDVD...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE GREATEST SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN BETTER PROXIMITY TO THE DEFORMATION BAND. THERE
ARE STILL SOME INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS THOUGH SO WILL HANG ONTO THE HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOW. SUSPECT
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS MAY BE ABLE TO BE PARED OUT OF THE WARNINGS
TOWARDS 12Z TUES.
SYSTEM PULLS EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND SHOULD SEE SNOW TAPER
OFF ACROSS EASTERN AREAS IN THE MORNING...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT AT THIS
POINT...WITH GENERALLY ANOTHER 1 TO 4 IN THE AFTERNOON. -KT
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION AS SECONDARY ENERGY DIGS
ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON THE BACKSIDE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
WITH THAT SAID...SHOULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
PEAKS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING FLOW ALOFT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD TO REMAIN BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY SNOW COVERED AREAS OF THE PLAINS.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATING SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDING
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY AS MORE PACIFIC ENERGY DIGS ACROSS
THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE THIS
ENERGY MOVES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING
A PROGRESSIVE WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AS
ANOTHER GROUP OF MODELS ARE DIGGING THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. AT ANY RATE...SHOULD SEE INCREASING CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
FOR AREAS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
SATURDAY-MONDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIGGING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF A
DEVELOPING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS COULD BRING A
FEW MORE SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY...WITH DEEP
MERIDIONAL FLOW PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016
THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SE
CORNER OF THE STATE AS OF 1030 PM...WHILE THE SFC LOW WAS SITUATED
OVER HIGHWAY 50 BETWEEN CROWLEY AND OTERO COUNTIES. THIS
POSITIONING HAS PUBLISHED HIGH AMOUNTS OF SNOW FOR EL PASO
COUNTY...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO ATTAIN HALF AS MUCH. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLIP TO
THE EAST...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS FROM THE WRAPAROUND ARE
AFFECTING THE PLAINS...CREATING AREAS OF GREATLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES.
LOOK FOR IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR THE I25 CORRIDOR
FROM PUEBLO TO MONUMENT HILL...INCLUDING THE TAF SITES OF KPUB
AND KCOS THROUGH 18Z-20Z...THEN IMPROVING TO MVFR TO VFR.
THE SLV AND KALS HAS BEEN VFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AND IT IS
TRULY QUESTIONABLE WHETHER ANY OF THE WRAPAROUND WILL AFFECT THE
VALLEY. THEREFORE...SAVE FOR VCSH ALONG THE VALLEY EDGES...VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS ARE FORECAST. MOORE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058>068-
072>089-093>098.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ069>071-
099.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
932 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 923 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016
THE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SE CO THIS EVENING WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE ROTATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE NW QUADRANT OF
THE STORM. RADAR IS PICKING UP SOME MINOR BANDS OF SHOWERS
GENERALLY MOVING FROM N TO S. BELIEVE SNOWFALL WILL BE VERY SLOW
TO LEAVE THE ARE...BUT IT WILL LEAVE AS THE PRECIPITATION AREA GRADUALLY
SLIDES EAST WITH THE LOW CENTERS SLOW EASTERLY MOVEMENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016
AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE
WINTER STORM WILL BRING PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOWFALL TO MUCH OF WEST-
CENTRAL CO FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS EVENING. HAVE UPDATED THE
GRIDS AND FORECASTS FOR CATEGORICAL SNOWFALL UNTIL ABOUT 9 PM WHEN
THE HRRR AND HIRES SHOW IT MOVING EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016
OUR COMPLICATED STORM SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO EVOLVE. IT IS IN
THE PROCESS TO TRANSITIONING TO ITS NEXT PHASE AS THIS FORECAST
GOES TO PRESS. THE 500MB LOW PASSED OVER THE 4-CORNERS AROUND
MIDDAY TODAY AND WILL SHORTLY MOVE EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
AS A RESULT THE FLOW HAS BEEN TRANSITIONING FROM A SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION TO WEST-NORTH NEAR THE SURFACE...AND EASTERLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE. BY LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT A DEEP NORTH FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. AS A RESULT...THE BETTER SNOWFALL WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN
SLOPES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SNOWFALL HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE VALLEYS OF WESTERN UT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND OVER THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL VALLEYS OF WESTERN CO.
WHILE SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN MANY OF THESE AREAS OFF AND ON
THROUGH THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT...LITTLE TO NO
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED. SO HAVE DROPPED THE
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES FOR THESE ZONES. ON THE FLIP SIDE...THE
NORTHWEST CO VALLEYS HAVE YET TO SEE THEIR BEST SNOWFALL. EXPECT
THAT THESE ZONES WILL SEE BETTER ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MORE
FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS THAT HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS IN CO ZONES 1 AND 2 WILL OCCUR NORTH OF THE
TAVAPUTS PLATEAU...SOUTH OF RANGELY AND IN THE PICEANCE
BASIN...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ZONE 5 IN THE YAMPA AND
OAK CREEK AREA. THEREFORE EXTENDED THESE ADVISORIES.
ALL PRESENT HIGHLIGHTS ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON TUE...AND THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE FOR NOW IN THE DRIER NORTH FLOW. HOWEVER ANOTHER
COLD IMPULSE WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY...WITH A
-32C/500MB COLD CORE OVER NORTHWEST CO IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS
INDICATE THERE WILL BE AN UPTICK IN SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.
FOR NOW THE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS DO NOT SEEM TO WARRANT
EXTENDING ANY HIGHLIGHTS. BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
LINGERING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE...AND A MUCH HIGHER SNOW RATIO
MAY BE A CONCERN. COLD ADVECTION IN THE NORTH FLOW WILL RESULT IN
COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE.
CONDITIONS QUICKLY WIND DOWN TUE EVENING AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
ERODE. BY LATE TUE NIGHT ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED
TO SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS FROM NEAR ASPEN AND NORTHWARD.
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT DUE LESS CLOUDS
AND THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS APPEARS A DOMINANT RIDGE WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED ALONG THE LEFT COAST OF NOAM. THERE WILL STILL
BE PACIFIC WAVES PLOWING INTO THIS FEATURE BUT NOT BE ALLOWED TO
FORM A LARGER SYSTEM IN THE WEST. SO WE ARE LOOKING AT SEVERAL
PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE
PLAINS BUT FOR NOW NOTHING LOOKS OVERLY SIGNIFICANT. BELOW TO MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN PLACE UNDER THIS REGIME AS
WELL. THE FIRST WAVE...MORE APPARENT IN THE 1.5 PVU FIELD...WILL
ROTATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND JUST BRUSH OUR EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WANE AS WELL AS
INSTABILITY SO REALLY ONLY EXPECTED SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS TO THE HIGH PASSES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL SEE TRANSITORY RIDGING
FOLLOWED BY THE FIRST PASSING TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THIS STORM HAS BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING THE PAST FEW
RUNS AND BOTH THE EURO AND GFS ARE CLOSING A LOW OFF NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE CARRYING IN SOME
PACIFIC MOISTURE BUT ATTM IT APPEARS THE UPSTREAM MOUNTAIN RANGES
WILL GET THE MOST BENEFIT BEFORE IT GETS HERE. RIDGING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IS THEN FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROUGH...THIS ONE
FARTHER NORTH...GOING INTO SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH APPEARS TO BRING
MORE OF A COLD SHOT THEN PRECIPITATION. BEYOND THIS A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH WILL MEAN GENERALLY DRY
AND COLD WEATHER PERSISTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 923 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH PASSES WILL REMAIN OBSCURED THROUGH MUCH OF
TUE MORNING THEN CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE. WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL OVER MUCH OF WESTERN CO WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND
TUE MORNING. KRIL...KEGE...KASE...KTEX...KMTJ WILL ALL HAVE MVFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH INTERMITTENT IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
POSSIBLE DUE TO PASSING SNOW SHOWERS. FOG DEVELOPING IN VALLEYS
AFTER ABOUT 09Z MAY AFFECT FLIGHT OPERATIONS AS WELL. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE THROUGHOUT TUE AND TUE EVENING.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TUESDAY FOR COZ001-002-
004-005.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TUESDAY FOR COZ003-007>014-
017>020-023.
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ023-025.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ028.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CC
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...CC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1146 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO DELAY ONSET OF PRECIPITATION A BIT
TONIGHT AS HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SLOWER START TO
THE PRECIP WITH IT TAKING A BIT LONGER TO REACH SATURATION.
ADDITIONALLY HAVE A PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW VISIBILITIES AND DENSE
FOG ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS
AREA IS EXPANDING WESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. HAVE ISSUED AN SPS RIGHT NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR A POTENTIAL DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF THE AREA CONTINUES TO
EXPAND. LATEST HRRR MODEL INDICATES IT COULD PERSIST INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AND EXPAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. HAVE
INSERTED A GREATER MENTION OF FOG INTO THE GRIDS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR FOR A POTENTIAL HEADLINE AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 409 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS SQUARELY ON TIMING AND IMPACTS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE IMPENDING WINTER STORM. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THE LARGE NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH EMERGING IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. IN RESPONSE...SFC CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES TO
INTENSIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH MAX SFC PRESSURE FALLS OF 6-
MB/3HR NOTED OVER KS/OK. ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE...MRMS RADAR MOSAIC AND OBSERVATIONS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE ALL THE MEASURABLE PCPN REMAINING OVER NE/KS AS
OF THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS EVENING THROUGH 10PM...SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT A MAJORITY OF THE EVENING SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS MODEL
TIME SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS /E.G. 850MB/. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW E/W BAND OF PRECIPITATION
LIFTING NWD ACROSS AREA ALONG THE LEADING SURGE OF ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. HOWEVER...ANY PRECIP /LIKELY A RAIN/SNOW MIX/ WITHIN THIS
BAND SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIGHT...WITH ONLY MINOR SNOW ACCUMS.
TONIGHT AFTER 10 PM...IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. COMBINATION OF VERY
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...AND LOWER STATIC
STABILITY SHOULD YIELD ARE LARGE SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
TOWARDS 12Z TUE AS WELL DUE TO A PLUME OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO 100-200 J/KG OF MUCAPE. PORTIONS OF FAR
SOUTHERN IOWA WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS A PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG ADIABATIC
ASCENT...AND WET BULB EFFECTS IN THE PBL SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY
QUICK CHANGEOVER TO SNOW EXCEPT ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 409 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
PLENTY TO DISCUSS WITH ALL EYES STILL FOCUSED ON IMPENDING WINTER
STORM. LONG WAVE TROUGH IN QUESTION IS STILL ONLY MOVING THROUGH THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA BUT MID LEVEL FORCING EFFECTS ARE ALREADY
APPROACHING THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH MAINLY VIRGA FOR NOW. THIS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD INTO IA AT PERIOD ONSET AND MATURE COMBINING WITH
IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE NOW FORMING FROM KS INTO MO. THETA-E
ADVECTION...FRONTOGENETIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING ARE ALL VERY
STRONG AND IMPRESSIVELY PHASED EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT SOME
CONCERN IS THAT MUCH OF THIS LIFT IS BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE /DGZ/...WHICH IS NOT THAT DEEP ANYWAYS...AND MAY LEAD TO
LOWER RATIOS. HOWEVER CONVECTIVE SNOW IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH
UPRIGHT CONVECTION OVERWHELMING ANYTHING THAT MAY BE SLANTWISE/CSI
AS MOST MODELS ARE DEPICTING TOKEN MUCAPES. CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS ALL REFLECT THIS AS WELL WITH SHOWERY 40-50 DBZ ECHOES IN
SNOW. THUS 1-2 INCH/HOUR RATES ARE QUITE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHERN
INTO CENTRAL IA AROUND THE MORNING COMMUTE. EXAMINATION OF NAM
CONVECTIVE PRECIP FIELDS SUPPORTS THIS AS WELL...EVEN BRINGING
SPOTTY AMOUNTS TOWARD THE MN BORDER. HAVE EVEN ADDED FLAT OUR
THUNDERSTORM WORDING SE.
WELL ADVERTISED DRY SLOT HAS BECOME EVEN MORE PROMINENT THIS MORNING
AND LOOKS TO DIMINISH PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. THERE COULD VERY WELL BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TOO AS THE DRY SLOT...RAIN/SNOW LINE
LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. ADEQUATE LIFT MAY STILL PHASE WITH
A DECENT MOISTURE DEPTH...ALTHOUGH NOT DEEP AND COOL ENOUGH TO ADD
ICE INTRODUCTION. HOWEVER FARTHER NORTH THE DGZ DEEPENS SOMEWHAT AND
BETTER PHASES WITH THE MAX OMEGA AND SHOULD RESULT IN VERY HEAVY
SNOW ACROSS THE NW THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EVENING AS
THE DEFORMATION ZONE LINGERS AND PIVOTS OVER THESE LOCATIONS.
ALTHOUGH DIFFICULT TO INJECT INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT THE
OPERATIONAL NAM AND COMPANION NMM CORES DEVELOP WHAT LOOKS TO BE
CONVECTIVE PRECIP JUST NW OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK EARLY TUE
EVENING...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A HEAVY BURST OF UNDETERMINED WINTRY
PRECIP BEING RIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE PRECIP TYPE TRANSITION
LINE. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCH WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY INTO TUE.
TRUE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MAY BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL THROUGH THE EVENT
WITH 1/4SM VISIBILITIES AND 35 MPH GUSTS NOT COUPLED FOR EXTENDED
PERIODS AS ONE WIND SURGE MOVES THROUGH TUE...AND THEN SWINGS BACK
THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT. MOST MODELS DO NOT SHOW TOO DEEP OF MIXING
SO GENERALLY KEPT MAX WIND GUSTS 35-40 MPH. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS DO
INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING THAT...AND MAY OCCUR
LOCALLY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE TO INJECT INTO THE FORECAST ON
A WIDESPREAD BASIS AS OF YET.
WHAT THIS ALL AMOUNTS TO FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST IS LITTLE
CHANGE FOR SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNING WITH AMOUNTS
LOWERED SOMEWHAT IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING STRIPE...INCLUDING THE
DES MOINES METRO AREA. BLIZZARD WARNING 8-12...WINTER STORM WARNING
4-9...AND A TIER OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GENERALLY 2-4.
SOME MINOR BLOWING SNOW MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY AND INACTIVE WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. DRY NW FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
THE NEXT ITERATION OF WRN CONUS LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO END THE
WEEKEND. A SHORT WAVE DROPS THROUGH THU BUT IS MOISTURE
STARVED...AND THERE COULD BE SOME TOKEN LIGHT SNOW WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION SURGE MON BUT CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME. THE BIGGEST SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED
WILL LIKELY BE COLDER TEMPERATURES...WHICH ARE MAINLY JUST BEYOND
THE VALID PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...02/06Z
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
SOME FOG TO LINGER AT KMCW AND KALO WITH VSBYS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WINDS PICK UP. PRECIPITATION TO
OVERSPREAD THE CWA TOWARD SUNRISE...WITH VSBYS QUICKLY DROPPING IN
SNOW AND BLSN AS WINDS PICK UP. PRECIP TO CHANGE TO RAIN AT
KOTM...WITH A LULL IN THE PRECIP AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN TOWARD THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CIGS AND VSBYS TO REMAIN LOW IN FOG AND LOW
STRATUS. OTHERWISE SNOW TO GET GOING AGAIN IN THE EVENING TUESDAY.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
AUDUBON-BOONE-CASS-DALLAS-GUTHRIE-MADISON-POLK.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR CLARKE-JASPER-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR BLACK HAWK-BREMER-
BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HANCOCK-HARDIN-KOSSUTH-
PALO ALTO-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
CERRO GORDO-EMMET-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-
PALO ALTO-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-GRUNDY-HARDIN-MARSHALL-STORY.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR CALHOUN-CARROLL-
CRAWFORD-GREENE-POCAHONTAS-SAC-WEBSTER.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BEERENDS
SHORT TERM...FOWLE
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...BEERENDS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
250 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
...Updated short term and long term discussions...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
Models this morning were in good agreement with the 500mb low
moving from southwest Kansas to southeast Nebraska today. Based on
this track of the upper level system, 700mb low track, and where
the moisture and frontogenesis will be located early today it
appears that steady snow will continue north of a Garden City to
La Crosse line through at least the early afternoon. The steadier
and heavier snowfall is expected between 12z and 18z Tuesday
across north central Kansas. In addition to the ongoing
precipitation early this morning the north to northwest winds
across western Kansas will range from 25 to 35 mph. Wind speeds
will be stronger in north central Kansas
As of 2 am snow totals were below warning criteria north of
highway 96, however a band of steadier precipitation was beginning
to move into the area. Given this area of steadier and heavier
precipitation moving into this region early this morning combined
with increasing winds early Tuesday along with an additional
couple of inches mid to late morning have decided to keep the
winter storm warning going. The current WSW highlighting the
blowing and drifting snow still looks on track along with the snow
totals.
South of Garden city will begin cancelling counties from the
winter weather advisory based on phone calls and that any
additional precipitation will be one inch or less.
Tonight as the main upper level storm system moves across Iowa
another, weaker, upper level disturbance will approach western
Kansas from the Northwest. Precipitation chances with the next
system appears low, however clouds are expected to linger through
the predawn hours. Gusty northwest winds are also expected to stay
up overnight so at this time given the expected winds and cloud
cover will be favoring lows in the teens. the cooler mins will be
across west central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
The northwest winds will continue to decrease on Wednesday as a
surface ridge axis begins to build into western Kansas early in
the day. 00z NAM and GFS soundings late day continues to support
highs mainly in the low to mid 30s. A few upper 30s will be
possible near the Oklahoma border while to coolest highs will be
located where the higher snowfall is expected.
Wednesday night may end up being the coldest night of the work
week given the expected sky cover and winds between 09z and 12z
Thursday. Given that the winds will be westerly will not undercut
guidance by much with the possible exception being in west central
and portions of north central Kansas.
Dry conditions and a warming trend can then be expected late week
and over the weekend period. The 900 to 850mb temperature trends
suggesting highs climbing back into the upper 40s to lower 50s by
the start of the weekend period. This appears reasonable in areas
where no snow cover will exist late week. In areas where snow
cover is expected Thursday and Friday the highs will likely be
between 10 to 20 degrees cooler.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Tuesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
RAP and HRRR are in good agreement this morning with IFR along
with periods of LIFR ceilings through at least late Tuesday
morning as snow continues, Ceilings will begin to gradually
improve between 15z and 18z Wednesday as the snow begins to taper
off from southwest to northeast. Gusty east to northeast winds
will shift to the north northwest after 11z and then increase to
around 25 knots between 15z and 18z Tuesday. At this time the
areas most favorable to continuous snow along with blowing snow
will be at GCK through 15z and HYS through the early afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 32 16 34 16 / 20 0 0 0
GCK 29 12 32 8 / 50 0 0 0
EHA 32 16 35 16 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 35 17 37 15 / 10 0 0 0
HYS 32 15 30 9 / 80 10 0 0
P28 42 21 38 17 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening
for KSZ046-061>065-074>077.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ030-031-
043>045.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1130 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
...Updated Aviation and Synopsis...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
At 00z Tuesday a -31C 500mb low/trough was located across southern
Colorado and northern New Mexico. Another upper level trough was
located across Idaho. A surface and 850mb low was located across
southeast Colorado with a surface boundary extending southeast
from the surface low into northwest Oklahoma.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
A few items of concern within the next 24 hours. 1) snow, 2) thunderstorms,
3) wind. An upper level low will swing on in from the southwest through
the overnight. Considerable upslope is expected on the north side of
the synoptic disturbance. This region is generally across northwest
and north-central Kansas. For snow amounts, have the highest snow amounts
from Scott City to WaKeeney. 6-8" will be possible in this area. The
ECMWF shows slightly higher amounts, however, the mesoscale models are
lower as a result of low to mid level dry air advecting in. To the south
and southeast, have a wide area of advisory amounts (2-5") from Johnson
to Jetmore to Ash Valley and points northwest. Focusing farther south,
a modified warm sector will spread northward on the south side of the
low. HRRR and to a lesser extent the NAM show some MUCAPE forming. Low
level clouds have hung around across the OK/TX panhandles, but there
is some clearing this early afternoon. Models show -28C 500-hPa temperatures,
so I do think some MUCAPE can be realized if clearing/warming continues.
Forecast soundings are very impressive in terms of wind shear and kinematics.
Soundings support low topped convection. The HRRR is also showing some
updraft helicity, so there was a very slight concern for a brief spin
up tornado. Elkhart looks the most interesting in terms of any "spring-
like" convection. MUCAPE is weak, so this would be the main limiting
factor. Some of the other models like the ARW show somewhat of a line
developing across the Panhandles, so this might miss us, but still reasonably
confident there will be at least some thunderstorms around far southwest
Kansas this evening. Lastly, this system is forecast to be closed off
as it ejects across western Kansas. 850-hPa winds of 30-40 kt will spell
out the concern for windy conditions tomorrow morning. This will create
wind chills in the 5 to 15F range. Beyond tomorrow, the synoptic low
moves off to the northeast and weak high pressure with some downslope
moves in. Temperatures will rebound through the end of the business
week with 40s returning, except lower temps over the snow pack. Another
low may approach the region next Saturday, however, the main dynamics
look to be too far away from southwest Kansas. There might be a cooling
trend next week as the longwave trough amplifies and caa could develop
across the Central Plains.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Tuesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
RAP and HRRR are in good agreement this morning with IFR along
with periods of LIFR ceilings through at least late Tuesday
morning as snow continues, Ceilings will begin to gradually
improve between 15z and 18z Wednesday as the snow begins to taper
off from southwest to northeast. Gusty east to northeast winds
will shift to the north northwest after 11z and then increase to
around 25 knots between 15z and 18z Tuesday. At this time the
areas most favorable to continuous snow along with blowing snow
will be at GCK through 15z and HYS through the early afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 29 32 15 35 / 80 20 0 0
GCK 26 29 12 33 / 90 40 0 0
EHA 23 30 14 35 / 90 20 0 0
LBL 26 31 16 37 / 90 20 0 0
HYS 30 32 12 31 / 90 60 10 0
P28 35 39 19 38 / 60 20 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Tuesday for
KSZ046-061>065-074>077.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Tuesday for KSZ030-031-
043>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Burgert
Discussion...Sugden
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1117 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 250 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
The incoming storm system is, more or less, evolving as advertised
this Monday afternoon. Surface cyclogenesis is ongoing while a broad
but so far loosely organized precipitation shield is overspreading
much of western Kansas, Colorado, and into Nebraska. In the local
area, light rain will be possible into early evening as these weak
impulses move across the region with areas of light precipitation.
This may mix with periods of snow mainly in/near Republic county but
accumulation should be pretty much 0 through 9 PM or so.
The main precipitation shield will move out of central Kansas and
across the local area between roughly 10 PM and 6 AM. Expect to see
embedded thunderstorms within this area of moderate rain, with an
isolated lightning strike or two not out of the question even within
the snow area. Instability is not particularly strong and the storms
will be mainly elevated, but with the very strong winds just above
the surface, there is a small chance for a few downdrafts to bring
some locally stronger winds down to the surface. Within the rain
area, expect generally from 0.50 to 1 inch of rain.
The snow forecast remains quite difficult even only a few hours in
advance of the storm. And really, the only reason it remains
difficult is because the rain/snow cutoff line continues to
fluctuate slightly regarding the location of what should be a very
sharp gradient in snow amounts. Additionally, warm ground
temperatures and even warm air temperatures during snowfall will
induce a bit of melting and compacting more than normal. At the same
time, when the snow does begin, the rates should be extremely heavy
with convective snowfall initially and transitioning to more of a
frontogenesis and dynamics-driven snowfall which should still see
moderate rates. Would not be surprised to see snowfall rates exceed
2" per hour for a couple of hours within the heavy snow area. Models
remain in fairly good agreement in terms of where the snow/rain
cutoff will be throughout the night, but still with enough of a N/S
variation to keep question marks in the snow total forecast. High-
Res guidance such as the HRRR and RAP seem to be initializing a bit
warm but still get cold enough in far northwest parts of the CWA
during the heavy precip period to support heavy snow accumulation.
Still looking for the winter-storm-type accumulation amounts near
and north of the Concordia to Washington line, with sharply lower
amounts south of that line.
There appears to be a high likelihood that the dry slot will
overspread the majority of the forecast area during the day on
Tuesday, although again with a rather sharp dry-to-snow cutoff in
the far northwest corner of the forecast area so some additional
snow will remain possible during the morning within the warned area.
Then during the afternoon or early evening, a vort max will wrap
around the main system and may support another quick shot of light
snow on the order of an inch or more, mainly in areas north of I-70.
Winds will continue to be an issue for any areas that experience
heavy snow as there will be some reduced visibility and drifting.
Should note though that the winds appear to have a lull on Tuesday
as the center of the surface low moves overhead.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
No major changes needed in the extended as upper wave pattern favors
a dry northwest flow with upper troughs passing to the northeast and
southwest of the CWA. Northwest winds are initially gusty behind the
departing wave Wednesday morning, before gradually diminishing to
around 10 mph at sunset. Cold air advecting from the snow pack in
Nebraska was shown in decent agreement with respect to temperatures
on Wednesday and Thursday with readings in the 30s and overnight
lows in the teens and 20s. Southerly winds return Thursday onward
with mostly sunny skies return and highs rebound to the upper 40s
through the weekend. Next cold front and potential system arrives by
Monday with much uncertainty in guidance on any available
moisture.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1117 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
A complicated forecast is just beginning to unfold. With area of
thunderstorms moving out of central OK, decided to go prevailing
-TSRA at TOP and FOE with a VCTS for MHK. Think CIGS and VSBY will
mainly me MVFR and don`t have a great deal of confidence in IFR
conditions lasting for a long time based on upstream conditions
and there still being some dry air in low levels. Think TOP and
FOR will become VFR late in the morning as the dry slot works its
way through eastern KS. MHK continues to be a little less clear
whether the clearing will get in there or only be temporary. So
only have a tempo for VFR conditions and will let later shifts
evaluate. Then MVFR Conditions should move back into the
terminals as the wrap around moisture passes through. There could
be some light rain mixed with snow, but this appears to be light
in intensity so I don`t have VSBY being affected very much by
this. Winds are likely to remain gusty, save for when the surface
low passes by, due to a tight pressure gradient.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM Tuesday to midnight CST
Tuesday night for KSZ010-011-021-022-034.
Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST Tuesday night for KSZ008-
009-020.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1000 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016
HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE COUNTIES ALONG INTERSTATE 70 AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 25 TO A BLIZZARD WARNING STARTING AT 11Z AND ENDING IT AT
THE ORIGINAL WINTER STORM WARNING TIME OF 00Z (WEDNESDAY). ITS
LIKELY BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WONT LAST QUITE THAT LONG BUT GROUND
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ONCE THE HIGHER
SNOWFALL RATES EXIT THE AREA.
LOCAL WIND GUST PROGRAM ALONG WITH MAV AND LAMP GUIDANCE
SUPPORTING WIND GUSTS IN THE 45 TO 50 MPH RANGE IN THE BLIZZARD
WARNING AREA. IN ADDITION...NAM/RUC/HRRR AND SREF
SHOWINGVISIBILITYY FORECASTS IN THE 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE RANGE WITH
RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR. THE COMBINATION OF ALL THESE
FEATURES SUPPORTS UPGRADING TO A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ABOVE
MENTIONED AREAS.
OUTSIDE OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM WARNING
GOING. WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH EXPECTED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016
UPDATED TEMP/DEWPOINT/WIND GRIDS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MAIN
CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE THE WINDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH EXPECTED...STRONGEST TOMORROW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF SLOWLY DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM.
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO NEAR TRINIDAD. 00Z NAM/RUC AND 21Z SREF SHOW
THE LOW MOVING TOWARD DODGE CITY/GARDEN CITY AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY
THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD OMAHA BY THE END OF THE DAY.
ABOVE MENTIONED 00Z AND 21Z MODELS ARE SHOWING 24 HOUR SNOWFALL
TOTALS FROM 00Z THIS EVENING THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY NEARLY TWICE AS
MUCH AS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. ADD THE STRONG WINDS TO THE EXPECTED
SNOW AND WE GET THE POSSIBILITY OF VISIBILITIES (PER RAP AND NAM)
NEAR ONE QUARTER MILE IN THE 11Z-13Z TIMEFRAME PLUS OR MINUS A FEW
HOURS.
BOTTOM LINE...THE HEAVIEST OF THE SNOW AND THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE STILL ON THEIR WAY. WILL RE-EVALUATE SNOWFALL TOTALS AFTER
03Z RUC/HRRR COMES IN AND COORDINATE WITH OVERNIGHT FORECASTER
ABOUT POSSIBLE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE AMOUNTS EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 104 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016
TONIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...
ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDY SKIES ABOUND FOR
THE AREA WITH A PERSISTENT ESE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE
CURRENT WIND REGIME IS THE RESULT OF THE LITTLE TO LACK OF MOVEMENT
OF THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WINTER EVENT. THIS IS
ALLOWING A WIDE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FOR THE AREA FROM THE U20S/L30S
IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WHILE THE EASTERN HALF IS SEEING
MOSTLY M30S TO L40S.
REGIONAL RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW PRECIP MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM. THE TEMP CHANGES ARE
ALLOWING FOR RAIN TO MIX INTO THE EASTERN AREA WITH SNOW...BUT
GIVING ALL SNOW WEST.
GOING INTO TONIGHT...DESPITE THE LACK OF MOVEMENT WITH THIS STORM
FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS...STILL EXPECT THE WAVE OF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW TO GIVE THE AREA A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION BEFORE STEADY SNOWFALL ARRIVES OVERNIGHT. WITH CURRENT
TRACK REMAINING VERY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...HAVE NOT CHANGED
CURRENT WARNINGS AMOUNTS.
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO TUESDAY MORNING IS STILL EXPECTED TO SEE
THE BULK OF THE WARNING SNOWS BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. LINGERING -SW/CLOUDS STILL
POSSIBLE FOR MOST LOCALES TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IS DEPENDENT ON SPEED
OF SYSTEM WHEN IT ENTERS THE PLAINS SPHERE OF INFLUENCE.
THE OTHER MENTIONED FACTOR IN PLAY IN TANDEM WITH THE EXPECTED
SNOWFALL WILL BE THE STRONG EAST/NORTH GRADIENT WINDS. WITH THE
CURRENT ESE FLOW EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE NNE AS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES...DO EXPECT STEADY 20-30 WITH GUSTS TO
40 MPH. BLOWING SNOW CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RESULT...WHICH ALSO MAY
CREATE NEAR-BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
FOR TEMPS...LOOKING FOR A SLOW DROP INTO THE 20S FOR ALL AREAS
TONIGHT...WHICH IS GOING TO BE ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO LACK OF STRONG
CAA NOT ARRIVING UNTIL TOMORROW AS WINDS GO MOSTLY NORTHERLY. LITTLE
REBOUND GOING INTO TUESDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING MID/UPPER 0S
AT BEST. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...SINGLE NUMBERS TO LOW TEENS ON TAP FOR
THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 104 PM MST MON
FEB 1 2016
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SNOW TO THE TRI STATE AREA
WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
THE TROUGH BASE POSITIONED OVER EASTERN KANSAS WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE PLACED OVER THE WESTERN COAST. AS A RESULT OF THE TROUGH
PASSAGE AND THE RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST OF THE TRI STATE
AREA...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO BREAK TOWARDS WEDNESDAY EVENING AS MORE STABLE
AIR WITH AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY...SO DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WIND CHILLS
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
NEARING ZERO AND WIND CHILL READINGS AS LOW AS 17-18 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN
COLORADO.
THE NEXT POSSIBLE WEATHER MAKER WILL BE FRIDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE DIMINISHES AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE COLORADO
FRONT RANGE. MODEL FORECASTS IN GENERAL HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH POSITIONED ALONG THE COLORADO
FRONT RANGE. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE LIFT AND STRONGER JET STREAM WILL
BE POSITIONED WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WITH THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...MAINLY FOR EASTERN COLORADO.
THEREFORE...KEPT SOME SLIGHT SILENT POPS IN EASTERN COLORADO FOR
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MID DAY FRIDAY.
A SLIGHT WARM UP WILL OCCUR FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING INTO THE LOWER 40S...WHICH IS ABOUT NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER TROUGH LOOKS TO EMERGE OUT OF WESTERN CANADA
AND SLIDE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE ROCKIES TOWARDS THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT FORECAST MODELS HAVE NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 415 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016
FOR KGLD AND KMCK...A WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS
THROUGH THE PERIOD BRINGING IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. WINDS BEGIN THE PERIOD
FROM THE EAST GUSTING 25 TO 30KTS...SLOWLY BACKING TO THE
NORTHEAST AROUND 6Z...NORTH BY 10Z...AND NORTHWEST BY 17Z. WIND
GUSTS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY COULD APPROACH 40KTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
KSZ001-013-027>029-041-042.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM CST TUESDAY FOR KSZ002>004-
014>016.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR KSZ002>004-
014>016.
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ090>092.
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR NEZ079.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM CST TUESDAY FOR NEZ080-081.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR NEZ080-081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
359 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 235 AM CST Tue Feb 2 2016
Showers and a few thunderstorms were moving north-northeastward
through western MO, just west of our forecast area early this
morning. This activity was in the vicinity of a strong southerly
low level jet and ahead of an upper level low and associated
surface low over southwest KS. The upper level low will move
northeastward into southeast Nebraska and western Iowa by 00z
Wednesday while the surface low moves into northwest MO. Showers
and scattered thunderstorms will sweep eastward through our
forecast area today as depicted by the latest HRRR run. The
models were depicting very strong 850 mb warm air advection,
theta-e advecton, and moisture convergence across much of our area
this morning into the afternoon on the nose of the strong
southerly low level jet as it translates eastward through our
region. Best potential for any severe storms will be across parts
of southeast MO and southwest IL this afternoon where the best
instability will be. The primary threat will be damaging winds.
The precipitation should shut off quickly this afternoon over
central MO as the dry slot moves northeastward into our area with
partial clearing. Strong and gusty surface winds can be expected
this morning into the afternoon, close to wind advisory criteria
due to the relatively tight surface pressure gradient and momentum
transfer to the surface from the strong low level jet. Despite the
cloud cover and precipitation, highs will be well above normal
today and warmer than yesterday.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 235 AM CST Tue Feb 2 2016
The precipitation should shift east of our forecast area this
evening with colder air filtering eastward into our area south and
southwest of the surface and upper level low. Wrap-around type
low level cloudiness will advect southeastward into our area
tonight with light snow or flurries possible, mainly across
northeast MO late tonight. Little if any accumulation is expected.
Much colder temperatures can be expected late tonight and
Wednesday with highs on Wednesday close to seasonal normals for
early February. Low level cloudiness will keep highs down on
Wednesday and there may be a few flurries. Winds will also be
strong and gusty with a tight surface pressure gradient between
the surface low moving northeastward through the Great Lakes
region and the surface ridge building eastward into our area from
the Plains. Tranquil and dry weather can be expected for the later
portion of the work week with temperatures close to seasonal
normals, then a little warmer for the weekend. A deepening upper
level trough over the northern Plains will send a cold front
southeastward through our area Sunday night. Both the GFS and
ECMWF models depict a cold pattern for the early portion of the
next work week with a deep upper level trough extending from the
Great Lakes into our area, along with persistent northwesterly
surface winds, and cold 850 mb temperatures.
GKS
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CST Mon Feb 1 2016
Not many changes from the prev TAFs again. Updated timing to
account for latest trends and guidance. TSRA will move into the
COU region around sunrise and move ewd impacting STL/SUS/CPS
during the late morning into early afternoon hours. Have only
added VCTS to UIN as coverage that far north is more uncertain.
Still expect cigs to improve quickly after precip ends with dry
slot moving into the region. Expect clouds to move back into
terminals, but beyond the current TAF period.
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1238 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA
OVERNIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A RAINY DAY ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1007 PM EST MONDAY...COLD FRONT ROUGHLY ANALYZED NEAR THE
ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WITH A NOTED SHARP WIND SHIFT TO NORTH
BEHIND IT. THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME POCKETS OF CLEARING ACROSS
CENTRAL VT INTO THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM THERE`S A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD
COVER WHICH PRECEDES THE COLD FRONT WITH OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN/WESTERN HALF OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. STILL SEE
SOME WEAK REFLECTIVITIES PER FRANKTOWN ONTARIO RADAR APPROXIMATELY
COLLOCATED WITH AN AXIS OF 925-850 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING PER
SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE. 00Z NAM MAINTAINS SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
PUSHING SOUTHWARD, THOUGH RECENT RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH JUST A WIND SHIFT. WITH ALL THAT SAID, EXPECT
AT LEAST AN INCREASE IN SKY COVER WITH POPS IN THE ISOLATED/SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE THOUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HRS. ANY ACCUMULATION IN
LOCATIONS WHERE IT DOES SNOW LIGHTLY WILL BE LIMITED. NO
ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPS, WHICH STILL LOOK ON TRACK AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 323 PM EST MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR OUR NEXT
BIG SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT, TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALL
THE WHILE SLIGHTLY OCCLUDING. STRONG MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND A MODEST SURGE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEVELOPING 50-70KT 925-850MB JET PUSH INTO THE AREA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT AT THE SURFACE A STRONG 1030MB HIGH OVER
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT SHIFTS OVER NOVA SCOTIA WEDNESDAY, TRAPPING
A SHALLOW LAYER OF COLD AIR, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
VERMONT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A BRIEF 1-3 HOUR WINDOW OF
POTENTIAL MIXED PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SLEET, SNOW AND/OR FZRA.
EXPECTED IMPACTS TO BE LIMITED THOUGH AS WARM AIR ADVECTION IS SO
ROBUST THAT SURFACE TEMPS CLIMB QUICKLY INTO THE MID 40S TO
LOCALLY 50 IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY MID-DAY WEDNESDAY, BUT
ONSET TIMING MAY COINCIDE WITH THE MORNING RUSH SO THIS WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED. CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIP REMAIN THE LONGEST EAST OF
THE GREENS, ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST WHERE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR AT
THE SURFACE WILL BE TOUGHEST TO SCOUR OUT, BUT EVENTUALLY WARMER
AIR ALOFT WILL IN OVER WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED BY MID-DAY.
OTHER THAN THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
SURFACE WINDS STILL EXIST WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG LOW LEVEL JET CHANNELED UP THE SOUTHERN
ST. LAWRENCE AND NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS. BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE
RATES AREN`T PARTICULARLY STEEP ENOUGH TO MIX DOWN THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT WINDS TO THE SURFACE, AND LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BACKED
OFF A BIT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE 925MB JET, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS TO 40 MPH STILL EXISTS IN THE AFTERNOON AS A MID-LEVEL DRY
SLOT BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
TEMPS WILL BE ABNORMALLY HIGH FOR EARLY FEBRUARY, TEETERING ON
RECORD LEVELS, WARMING WELL INTO THE 40S TO LOCALLY LOWER 50S LATE
IN THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 323 PM EST MONDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WANE GOING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC AND THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT BUILDS
FURTHER INTO THE REGION. ALOFT TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL SO ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK CONDITIONS DO TREND DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EVEN THOUGH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
NEVER REALLY VEERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST, SO OVERALL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK REMAIN SOMEWHAT MILD FOR FEBRUARY RANGING
THROUGH THE 30S FOR THURSDAY, AND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL IN THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT, AND MID 20S TO AROUND 30 FOR FRIDAY.
LOOKING FURTHER TOWARDS THE WEEKEND, A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS
TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AS WE GET BACK
INTO DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 30S, BUT AS A
DEEP TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SUNDAY TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH
13Z WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WINDS TRENDING LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. OTHER THAN A STRAY FLURRY NO PCPN
IS EXPECTED WITH UNRSETRICTED VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MVFR MOST PREVALENT AT KMSS/KSLK THROUGH 12Z. GENERALLY
VFR AFTER 14Z WITH SKIES TRENDING SKC/SCT040-060 AGL BY 18-20Z AT
ALL TERMINALS UNDER LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS. SOME MID TO HIGH
LEVEL BKN/OVC CIGS POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z, GENERALLY ABOVE FL100.
OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
06Z WED - 00Z THU...DETERIORATING AVIATION WX CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AS A WARM FRONT SHIFTS FROM CENTRAL NY INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. EXPECTED MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS ACROSS NRN NY...AND AROUND
DAYBREAK IN VT. WILL SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...WITH SNOW CHANGING TO A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN...AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL RAIN MID-LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR ALSO A CONCERN DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 25KTS POSSIBLE
BY WEDNESDAY AFTN FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. EXPECT
IMPACT TO AVIATION GROUND OPS FOR A TIME WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO
MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION. HIR TRRN OBSCD MOST OF THE PERIOD.
00Z THU- 12Z FRI...MAINLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS.
12Z FRI- 18Z SAT...VFR AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION.
18Z SAT-00Z SUN...AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE REACHED ON 2/3. HERE`S A
LISTING OF THE CURRENT RECORDS AND THE YEAR OBSERVED.
BURLINGTON, VT49|1991
MONTPELIER, VT55|1991
ST. JOHNSBURY, VT59|1991
MASSENA, NY48|1984
MT MANSFIELD, VT43|1973
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...JMG
CLIMATE...LAHIFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1032 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A LOT OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR...BETWEEN
850 AND 700 MB THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WHILE RADAR ECHOES ARE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE MISSOURI
VALLEY...MUCH OF THIS IS NOT YET REACHING THE GROUND. THE LATEST
HRRR AND RAP RUNS...AS WELL AS THE NEW 00Z NAM AND GFS RUNS ARE
SLOWING DOWN THE ONSET OF THE MORE PERSISTENT SNOW BAND DEVELOPING
IN OUR AREA. WHILE SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN
OUR SOUTH..IT LOOKS LIKE THE MORE STEADY MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL
REACH OUR SOUTHERN BORDER LATE TONIGHT OR AROUND DAYBREAK WHILE
THE I90 CORRIDOR AND NORTH WILL SEE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE MID TO
LATE MORNING. OPTED TO SPLIT THE BLIZZARD WARNING ALONG THE I90
CORRIDOR AND SLOW THE START TIME FROM 09Z TO 12Z DUE TO THE SLOWER
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE STEADY SNOWFALL. AMOUNTS GENERALLY
LOOK ON TRACK...WITH MODELS STILL PAINTING 9 INCHES PLUS ACROSS
MUCH OF OUR SOUTHEASTERN HALF.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID
LEVELS SPINNING AWAY JUST EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE VARIOUS
MODELS HAVE COME AROUND TO PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE
TRACK OF THE 500MB LOW TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...EJECTING THE CENTER OF
THE LOW INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW
FOLLOWS SUIT...WITH A TRACK FROM NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...TO NEAR ST. JOE MISSOURI AND FALLS CITY NEB BY
00Z WEDNESDAY. THE MOST MARKED CHANGE IS IN THE NAM...WHICH HAS MADE
A DRAMATIC SHIFT NORTHWARD IN ITS FORECAST WHICH NOW MIMICS THE
GLOBAL MODELS. THE GEM IS ALSO TRENDING NORTHWARD.
IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE WHILE FOR THE 850-700MB LAYER TO SATURATE UP
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. THEREFORE SLOWED DOWN
THE BEGINNING OF THE SNOWFALL THIS EVENING FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
THE SNOW WILL LIKELY NOT BEGIN FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I 90
UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. WITH THE OVERALL TREND OF
THE MODELS SHIFTING NORTHWARD...AT LEAST THE NAM AND GEM...THAT
LEADS TO SOME CONFIDENCE TO EXPAND THE BLIZZARD WARNING TO THE NORTH
AND WEST...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM TYNDALL SOUTH
DAKOTA...TO SIOUX FALLS...AND IVANHOE/MARSHALL MN. WINDS WERE NEVER
REALLY QUESTION FOR THIS EVENT...WITH THE MIXED LAYER MEAN WINDS
ABOUT 35 TO 40 KNOTS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. BUT NOW WITH HEAVIER
SNOW EXPECTED TO THE WEST OF THE ORIGINAL BLIZZARD WARNING...FEEL
THAT WHITE OUT CONDITIONS WILL BE A PROBLEM NOW IN THE NEW AREA. ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SNOWBAND...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FROM GREGORY COUNTY...TO MITCHELL AND BROOKINGS FOR AROUND 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW AND WINDY CONDITIONS. BUT THEIR WIND SHOULD AVERAGE
ABOUT 10 MPH LESS THEN THE WARNED AREA. FRONTOGENESIS IS FAIRLY
STRONG ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS...WHERE THE LATEST NAM SPLITS
THE 700MB FORCING INTO TWO DISTINCT LOCATIONS. THE FIRST ONE MOVES
NORTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST IOWA THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BASICALLY BE
WASTED SATURATING UP THE LOWER LAYERS. THEN IT PINWHEELS WESTWARD
INTO THE NEW BLIZZARD WARNING SEGMENT LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
FRONTOGENESIS REMAINS DEEP IN NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MN FROM
850-650MB ON TUESDAY...AND OUR EASTERN ZONES ALSO HAVE LESS STABLE
EPV* TO DEAL WITH WHICH SHOULD ADD TO SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 60. SO FOR THE BLIZZARD WARNING AREA...EXPECTING A SOLID 8
TO 13 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 60...TO 6 TO 8 INCHES
IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST SD AROUND YANKTON AND SIOUX FALLS. AMOUNTS WILL
BE A LITTLE LIGHTER ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING...BUT
REMEMBER IT WILL NOT TAKE A LOT OF SNOW TO CREATE WHITE OUT
CONDITIONS WITH 25 TO 45 MPH WIND SPEEDS. ONE OTHER INTERESTING
FEATURE IS THE JET...A SECONDARY JET STREAK DEVELOPS IN CENTRAL MN
AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WHICH
WILL PLACE OUR AREA IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THAT JET STREAK.
WITH THE PRIMARY JET TO THE SOUTH NEAR THE UPPER LOW...THAT MEANS
THE ENTIRE EASTERN HALF OF OUR FA WILL BE IN A SUBTLE COUPLED JET
ADDING TO BROAD SCALE ASCENT ON TOP OF THE MESOSCALE ASCENT PROVIDED
BY THE FRONTOGENESIS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONGEST
WINDS IN THE UPPER MIXED LAYER ACTUALLY DURING THE EARLY EVENING AT
40 TO 45 KNOTS...WITH WORST CONDITIONS WHERE SNOWFALL CONTINUES.
LIKELY THE ONLY MODERATE SNOWFALL REMAINING BY EARLY EVENING WILL BE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE
TAIL END OF WEAK TROWAL CONTINUES TO LINGER...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
SNOWFALL ELSEWHERE. AS SNOWFALL WINDS DOWN LATER IN THE EVENING AND
EARLY OVERNIGHT...AND WINDS ACTUALLY START TO GRADUALLY EASE...
SHOULD SEE THE COVERAGE OF BLOWING SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA SLOWLY DIMINISH AS
WELL...BUT AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE RIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING MAINLY EAST OF I 29.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE ON WEDNESDAY...AND NEW SNOW AND COLD
ADVECTION LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPS ON THE CHILLY SIDE. COULD EVEN SEE A
FEW FLURRIES WITH LOW LEVEL SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS. ANOTHER
REINFORCING WAVE SLIPS SOUTHEAST BY LATER WEDNESDAY...BUT SHOULD BE
NO MORE THAN A CLOUD PRODUCER. GOOD THING FOR THE CLOUDS...WITH WEAK
RIDGE SHIFTING OVER EARLY EVENING AND DECOUPLED WINDS...WOULD BE
OPEN TO GET QUITE CHILLY...BEFORE INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWEST
GRADIENT ALLOWS FOR RISING TEMPS LATER IN THE NIGHT. ANOTHER FAIRLY
COMPACT WAVE MOVES TOWARD EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING...AND PERHAPS WILL NEED TO THINK ABOUT A FEW FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES AHEAD OF SYSTEM. AS WAVE PASSES BY...WILL GET A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD START SOME
FALLING TEMPS NORTH TO SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ROLLER COASTER
CONTINUES WITH ANOTHER SPLITTING WAVE BY FRIDAY...TURNING WINDS BACK
AROUND SOUTHERLY AFTER WEAK RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH FOR
EFFECTIVE DYNAMICS...AND PERHAPS A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
NORTHEAST. PUSH OF MILDER TEMPS STARTS ON FRIDAY...WITH RETURN TO
30S...MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE LESSER SNOW AREAS WEST.
QUIETER AND GENTLER WEATHER WILL DWELL FOR MUCH OF THE LONGER RANGE
PERIOD FOLLOWING THE WINTER STORM. FOR THE MOMENT...A SMALL
CONSENSUS THAT TEMPS WILL WARM QUITE A BIT ON SATURDAY WITH A
MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...AND AGAIN LESSER SNOW AREAS WEST
MAY SEE SOME LOWER TO MID 40S. ANOTHER WAVE AROUND SUNDAY WILL PUSH
A FRONT THROUGH...AND BEING A FAIRLY DISTINCT UPPER PV
ANOMALY...HAVE BUMPED UP TO A LOWER CHANCE POP AT THIS TIME. MAY BE
WARM ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE RAIN TO START...BUT GENERALLY SNOW AS TEMPS
ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO FALL AS PRECIP FORCING PUSHES SOUTHEAST. A SOLID
PUSH OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN MONDAY WITH BRISK NORTHERLY
WINDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
AREAS OF LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE REGION...WHILE VFR CONDITIONS TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO
RAPIDLY DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. STRONG WINDS AND
SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY QUICKLY DROPPING TO IFR AND LIFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW AT TIMES. WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 40 KT ON
TUESDAY...BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AND WILL FURTHER
REDUCE VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. SNOW
BEGINS TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...BUT STRONG
WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO CREATE BLOWING SNOW ISSUES INTO THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION...AND WILL BE A MAJOR IMPACT AT KFSD
AND KSUX.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
SDZ065>071.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SDZ040-050-054-055-059-060-063-064.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
SDZ056-061-062.
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098.
IA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.
NE...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
NEZ013-014.
&&
$$
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1059 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016
.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR NEXT 24 HRS AT KLRD/KALI WITH KCRP/KVCT XPCTD TO
BE ON EDGE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE TONIGHT AND ALL OF DAYLIGHT TUES.
STRONG SRLY FLOW /925MB SRLY LLJ OF 50 TO 55 KTS/ AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT PERSISTS ACROSS EASTERN S TX AS OF WRITING WITH AREAS OF
STRATUS CONTINUING MOVING NWRD. APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT THE LLJ EWRD BRINGING AN END TO STRATUS AS WELL AS A
DECREASE IN SFC WINDS. FROPA XPCTD THRU KLRD SHORTLY AFTER 06Z AND
ALONG THE COAST BY 12Z /IF NOT SOONER/ BRIEF BURST OF GUSTY NW
WINDS AFTER FROPA...THEN DECREASING IN INTENSITY THRU MID
MRNG...ANOTHER SURGE OF GUSTY WINDS AROUND MIDDAY...THEN BECMG
LIGHT TUES AFTN/EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 834 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016/
DISCUSSION...SEE MARINE DISCUSSION.
MARINE...WINDS HAVE PICKED UP OVER THE BAYS/NEARSHORE TO WHERE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED...AS WINDS FROM LOW LEVEL JET
ARE MIXING DOWN. HRRR MODEL SHOWING WINDS KICKING UP 25 TO 30
KNOTS LATER TONIGHT OFFSHORE. CONSIDERING WINDS ARE BEING
UNDERESTIMATED BY OTHER MODELS...HAVE LEANT MORE TOWARD HIGHER
WINDS OFFSHORE. STILL BELOW GALE FORCE (COULD HAVE OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS) BUT FARTHER OFFSHORE LESS MIXING LIKELY DUE TO
BETTER MARINE LAYER. HOWEVER...WINDS/SEAS OFFSHORE WILL BE SCA TIL
ABOUT MID MORNING SO HAVE EXTENDED THE OFFSHORE SCA TIL 9 AM. HAVE
UPDATED COASTALS AND MWW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016/
DISCUSSION...ALLOWED RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE (AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH EWX/BRO). LOOKS GOOD BUT THERE WILL BE ELEVATED
CONDITIONS FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE RH AND WINDS BRING
CONDITIONS TO BELOW ELEVATED LEVELS. DID ADJUST GRIDS A BIT
(WARMER OUT WEST THAN FORECAST...COOLER EAST)...BUT OVERALL LET
THE FORECAST W.R.T. MAIN WEATHER PARAMETERS (LOWS/TIMING OF
FRONT/RAIN CHANCES ETC).
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016/
DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF FCST FOR KLRD/KALI WITH LOW TO
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR KCRP/KVCT. AREAS OF STRATUS XPCTD TO DVLP
AND SPREAD N ALONG THE TX COAST THIS EVENING WITH MVFR CIGS
ALREADY IMPACTNG KVCT...WITH LOWERING CIGS XPCTD THRU THE EVENING
/LIKELY TO IFR AT TIMES/. KCRP CURRENTLY FEW025 BUT STRATUS
SHOULD DVLP BY MID/LATE EVENING WITH CIGS AT MVFR /POSSIBLE IFR/
LEVELS. KLRD/KALI SHOULD REMAIN SKC THIS EVENING WITH STRATUS
POSSIBLY APPROACHING KALI AROUND 06Z. STRONG/GUSTY SRLY WINDS TO
IMPACT KCRP/KVCT/KALI THIS EVENING AS STRONG SRLY LLJ DVLPS...WITH
WEAKER WINDS AT KLRD. OVERNIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST AT KLRD SHORTLY AFTER 06Z AND REACHING THE
COAST LATE IN THE NIGHT. FRONT WILL CLEAR CIGS OUT WITH SKC MOST
OF THE DAYLIGHT HRS TUES. GUSTY NW WINDS AN HR OR SO AFTER FROPA
WITH DECREASING WIND SPEEDS THRU THE DAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...IMMEDIATE FORECAST
CONCERN IS THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED BETWEEN 20 AND
25 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH AS RH/S HAVE FALLEN BETWEEN 15
AND 25 PERCENT. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATER THIS
EVENING AS RH VALUES SLOWLY RECOVER. WINDS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY KEEP WIDESPREAD FOG FROM
DEVELOPING...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE...
THINKING WITH RESPECT TO COLD FRONT TIMING HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH.
BOUNDARY WILL ENTER NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT
AND SHOULD PUSH OFF THE COAST AROUND 6AM. PRIOR TO THE
FRONT...STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL OCCUR TONIGHT RESULTING IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER BOTH THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FAR EASTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA ALONG THE FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO
WARM INTO THE 70S DESPITE THE FRONT ARRIVING IN THE MORNING. MUCH
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL LEAD
TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN MOST LOCATIONS. COOLER AIR
ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE 40S.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE MAIN H5 TROUGH SWINGS FARTHER EAST...WITH
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AS
A REINFORCEMENT HIGH SLIDES INTO THE REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT RISES
SUGGEST A BREEZIER DAY THAN COMPUTER MODEL WINDS ARE OUTPUTTING...SO
HAVE INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY...BUT AS OF CURRENT WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA. HOWEVER ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WEATHER WILL
STILL EXIST...ESPECIALLY FOR THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. THINGS MAY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS. THE GRADIENT
WILL THEN RELAX THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE NEXT H5 TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN
MEXICO...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS MEXICO. A PERSISTENT EAST-
NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WEDGED BETWEEN THE SFC
LOW TO THE WEST...SFC HIGH TO THE EAST...AND A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST. THIS WILL RETURN MOISTURE
TO THE AREA BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE HAVING TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH DRYING THINGS
OUT...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH DRIER CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 60S BY WEDNESDAY WITH CAA...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID-30S/LOW-40S. NOT GOING TOO LOW
WITH TEMPERATURES AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AS WINDS MAY BE A BIT TOO
ELEVATED TO LET TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RAISE ONLY SLIGHTLY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A GENERALLY E-NE FLOW REMAINS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 60 78 44 65 41 / 10 10 0 0 0
VICTORIA 59 74 40 61 35 / 20 10 0 0 0
LAREDO 57 76 43 68 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALICE 58 78 41 64 39 / 10 10 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 61 74 45 62 43 / 10 10 0 0 0
COTULLA 53 74 40 64 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 59 79 42 65 40 / 10 10 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 62 75 48 62 45 / 10 10 0 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
RH/79...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
352 AM PST TUE FEB 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...TWO WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE DISTRICT BETWEEN NOW AND MIDWEEK. THE FIRST WILL SPREAD LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA TODAY...AND THE SECOND WILL
DO SIMILARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A
WARMING TREND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST TUESDAY...CHILLY START TO THE DAY
FOR A PORTION OF OUR SOUTHERN CWA. CURRENTLY BOTH SALINAS AND
WATSONVILLE ARE AT 37. FOR SF BAY METRO REGION MOST LOCATIONS ARE
IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE WITH DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO STILL IN
THE UPPER 40S.
SATELLITE AND ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SYSTEM JUST OFF THE COAST THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA TODAY. KMUX RADAR HAS BEEN BACK UP SINCE
THE EVENING WHICH WILL GREATLY HELP TODAY WITH THE TIMING OF RAIN.
LATEST HRRR AND NAM BOTH BRING ACROSS THE NORTH BAY THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND DOWN TO SF BAY AREA STARTING AROUND SUNRISE. THE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS DOWN TO THE MONTEREY BAY BY LATE IN THE
MORNING. OVERALL, LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING FROM YESTERDAY WITH
MODELS CONTINUING TO DEPICT PW VALUES OF 0.60" TO 0.70" BY LATE IN
THE MORNING. PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE .1" TO .2" FOR MANY URBAN
LOCATIONS WITH LOCALLY MORE THAN 1/3" FOR COASTAL RANGES. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 4,000 TODAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME VERY
SMALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
AFTER A SHORT BREAK IN THE RAIN A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING BRINGS IT TO THE NORTH BAY LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN TO SF BAY REGION DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WILL LIKELY BE SOME RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON COMMUTE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE CLOSE TO TODAY`S
VALUES ALTHOUGH PW VALUES WILL BE JUST A BIT HIGHER, SO COULD SEE
A FEW LOCALLY SPOTS FAIRING A BIT BETTER. .
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE COAST STARTING ON THURSDAY
AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE MAIN INFLUENCE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN AND HAVE BEEN INDICATING THIS THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THEREFORE, A VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE WITH WIDESPREAD MID
60S TO LOWER 70S LIKELY FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT TUESDAY. ECMWF
GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 70S IN MONTEREY BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE PERFECT WEATHER FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 03:59 AM PST TUESDAY... WEAK FRONT ADVANCING
FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING GRADUALLY DETERIORATING CIGS TO THE
REGION. CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN 2500 FT AGL OR ABOVE... WITH VFR
CIGS PREVAILING THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. BRIEF INTERMITTENT
MVFR POSBL THRU 20Z. VCSH POSBL IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE 10KT OR LESS.
VICINITY OF KSFO...CIGS WILL PREDOMINATELY BE 3000 FT AGL OR ABOVE
WITH BRIEF MVFR POSBL UNTIL 20Z. LIGHT RAIN POSBL BTWN 16Z AND
19Z. WINDS 10KT OR LESS.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CIGS WILL PREDOMINATELY BE 3000 FT
AGL OR ABOVE WITH BRIEF MVFR POSBL UNTIL 20Z. LIGHT RAIN POSBL
BTWN 16 AND 19Z. WINDS 10KT OR LESS.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 03:47 AM PST TUESDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
WINDS THEN INCREASE AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. A LONG PERIOD
WESTERLY SWELL WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
305 AM PST TUE FEB 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...TWO WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE DISTRICT BETWEEN NOW AND MIDWEEK. THE FIRST WILL SPREAD LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA TODAY...AND THE SECOND WILL
DO SIMILARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A
WARMING TREND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST TUESDAY...CHILLY START TO THE DAY
FOR A PORTION OF OUR SOUTHERN CWA. CURRENTLY BOTH SALINAS AND
WATSONVILLE ARE AT 37. FOR SF BAY METRO REGION MOST LOCATIONS ARE
IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE WITH DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO STILL IN
THE UPPER 40S.
SATELLITE AND ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SYSTEM JUST OFF THE COAST THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA TODAY. KMUX RADAR HAS BEEN BACK UP SINCE
THE EVENING WHICH WILL GREATLY HELP TODAY WITH THE TIMING OF RAIN.
LATEST HRRR AND NAM BOTH BRING ACROSS THE NORTH BAY THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND DOWN TO SF BAY AREA STARTING AROUND SUNRISE. THE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS DOWN TO THE MONTEREY BAY BY LATE IN THE
MORNING. OVERALL, LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING FROM YESTERDAY WITH
MODELS CONTINUING TO DEPICT PW VALUES OF 0.60" TO 0.70" BY LATE IN
THE MORNING. PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE .1" TO .2" FOR MANY URBAN
LOCATIONS WITH LOCALLY MORE THAN 1/3" FOR COASTAL RANGES. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 4,000 TODAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME VERY
SMALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
AFTER A SHORT BREAK IN THE RAIN A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING BRINGS IT TO THE NORTH BAY LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN TO SF BAY REGION DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WILL LIKELY BE SOME RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON COMMUTE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE CLOSE TO TODAY`S
VALUES ALTHOUGH PW VALUES WILL BE JUST A BIT HIGHER, SO COULD SEE
A FEW LOCALLY SPOTS FAIRING A BIT BETTER. .
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE COAST STARTING ON THURSDAY
AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE MAIN INFLUENCE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN AND HAVE BEEN INDICATING THIS THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THEREFORE, A VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE WITH WIDESPREAD MID
60S TO LOWER 70S LIKELY FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT TUESDAY. ECMWF
GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 70S IN MONTEREY BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE PERFECT WEATHER FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:39 PM PST MONDAY...INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A SURFACE COOL FRONT
WILL QUICKLY SLIDE SE OVER THE AREA VERY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. VFR WILL LOWER TO MVFR TUESDAY MORNING. VCSH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
VICINITY OF KSFO...W-SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. LOW CONFIDENCE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO S-SE 19Z-21Z. MVFR CIGS TUESDAY. PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS BECOMING NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS
TUESDAY. PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 9:51 PM PST MONDAY...A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS VERY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND
BECOME GUSTY MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AHEAD OF ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM. A LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 3 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: CANEPA
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1023 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WILL BECOME
DIFFUSE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THEN STALL NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
A DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDLANDS...FROM SUMTER THROUGH
COLUMBIA TO SALUDA EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE THIS AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER OVER THE NORTH MIDLANDS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WITH WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT FOCUS LIKELY REMAINING WEST OF THE
AREA THROUGH WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STILL IN PLACE AND
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE WEST. THE HRRR KEEPS MOST OF THE RAIN IN
THE UPSTATE THROUGH THIS EVENING WHICH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN
KEEPING POPS LOW THROUGH THE DAY.
A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED WITH READINGS NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY IN THE LOWER 60S. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...IN THE 70S. WITH SUCH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
THROUGH THE AREA AND POSSIBILITY OF WEDGE EROSION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES IS LOW FOR THE NORTH
MIDLANDS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE AREA WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
UPPER 50S COMMON NORTH...WITH LOWER 60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND WILL BE JUST OFF TO THE WEST OF THE REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME QUITE MOIST THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH PW VALUES RISING TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES. A LOW-LEVEL
JET OF OVER 40 KNOTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
MODELS STILL INDICATING LIMITED INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET THE
SHEAR WILL BE HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A HIGH
SHEAR/LOW CAPE EVENT...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE ISOLATED STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS AND INCLUDE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT
WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A HIGHER CHANCE OF JUST SEEING BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL. DESPITE CLOUDS AND RAIN...STRONG WARM ADVECTION SUPPORTS
TEMPERATURES AROUND 70.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE
CWA...BUT SLOWING DOWN AS IT DOES. POPS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH
THE NIGHT ACROSS THE WEST...BUT WILL STILL HOLD ON TO CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS FROM WEST TO EAST DUE TO THE FRONT SLOWING DOWN.
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE FRONT STALLED OUT ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY...THERE SHOULD
STILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO PORTIONS OF THURSDAY NIGHT.
UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE FRIDAY EXPECT DRYING AND COOLER CONDITIONS...NEAR
OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY...AND WILL FORECAST LOW POPS LATE
IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FROM SSC TO CUB AND CAE. IFR CIGS AT
CAE/CUB EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR BY 16Z. VFR TO REMAIN AT
AGS/DNL/OGB THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE AREA. LOWERING CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS SHOW RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITIES
FOR MOST OF TONIGHT AND THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BUT BELIEVE THIS MAY
BE OVERDONE AS A 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE OVER THE AREA. HAVE
INCLUDED RAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITIES BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EVENING.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
647 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NEAR OR INTO THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING AND BECOME DIFFUSE. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND BE STALLED NEAR THE
COAST THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SHIFTING
EAST. A DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS JUST NORTH OF
THE NC/SC BORDER AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE. AREAS OF
DENSE FOG DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT IN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND CSRA BUT EXPECT MIXING SHOULD IMPROVE
VISIBILITIES BY LATE MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR AT 11Z SHOWS ISOLATED
WEAK RETURNS ALONG THE CSRA BUT EXPECT DRY MID-LEVEL AIR IS
PREVENTING PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND THIS MORNING. A
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT FOCUS LIKELY REMAINING WEST OF THE
AREA THROUGH WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STILL IN PLACE AND
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE WEST. THE HRRR KEEPS MOST OF THE RAIN IN
THE UPSTATE THROUGH THIS EVENING WHICH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN
KEEPING POPS LOW THROUGH THE DAY. WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING IS
EXPECTED TO SET UP NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TODAY WITH STRONG SURFACE
BASED INVERSION AND HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN
THE LOWER 60S. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...IN THE 70S. WITH SUCH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
THROUGH THE AREA AND POSSIBILITY OF WEDGE EROSION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES IS LOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
AREA WILL BE MAINLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. UPPER 50S COMMON NORTH...WITH LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
FOR WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND WILL BE JUST OFF TO THE WEST OF THE REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME QUITE MOIST THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH PW VALUES RISING TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES. A LOW-LEVEL
JET OF OVER 40 KNOTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
MODELS STILL INDICATING LIMITED INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET THE
SHEAR WILL BE HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A HIGH
SHEAR/LOW CAPE EVENT...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE ISOLATED STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS AND INCLUDE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT
WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A HIGHER CHANCE OF JUST SEEING BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL. DESPITE CLOUDS AND RAIN...STRONG WARM ADVECTION
SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES AROUND 70.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE
CWA...BUT SLOWING DOWN AS IT DOES. POPS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH
THE NIGHT ACROSS THE WEST...BUT WILL STILL HOLD ON TO CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS FROM WEST TO EAST DUE TO THE FRONT SLOWING DOWN.
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE FRONT STALLED OUT ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY...THERE SHOULD
STILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO PORTIONS OF THURSDAY NIGHT.
UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE FRIDAY EXPECT DRYING AND COOLER CONDITIONS...NEAR
OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY...AND WILL FORECAST LOW POPS LATE
IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIP SOUTH THIS MORNING BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAF
SITES. MAIN CONCERN REMAINS FOG AND STRATUS THROUGH MID MORNING.
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE
FLUCTUATED QUITE A BIT THROUGH THE MORNING SO HAVE HANDLED USING A
TEMPO GROUP. EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO RETURN TO VFR BY 14Z BUT LOW
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AS EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE AREA. LOWERING CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS SHOW RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITIES
FOR MOST OF TONIGHT AND THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BUT BELIEVE THIS MAY
BE OVERDONE AS A 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE OVER THE AREA.
HAVE INCLUDED RAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WHICH SHOULD LEAD
TO RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITIES BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EVENING.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1001 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
BASED ON EXPECTED SN TOTALS APRCHG 10 INCHES OVER GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON
COUNTIES ON CYC SIDE OF UPR LO TRACK...WHICH APPEARS TO BE TRENDING
FARTHER TO THE W...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LK ENHANCEMENT WITH
CYC UPSLOPE NLY FLOW LATE TNGT/WED...OPTED TO UPGRADE WINTER WX ADVY
TO WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THOSE 2 COUNTIES AND EXTEND THE HEADLINE
TO 21Z WED...WHEN DEEPER MSTR IS FCST TO EXIT THE WRN CWA. THESE NEW
HEADLINES MATCH WELL WITH THOSE ISSUED BY SURROUNDING OFFICES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
MOVING OUT OVER KS...WHILE AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS ORGANIZING OVER
SCNTRL KS. 00Z RAOBS SHOWED A STRONG SRLY FLOW DEVELOPING OFF THE
WRN GULF OF MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO THE HEIGHT FALLS PUSHING OUT OVER
THE SRN PLAINS...AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PCPN INCREASING OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS WITH SNOW SPREADING OUT ACROSS NEBRASKA/IA.
CONSENSUS OF THE ARRAY OF 00Z MODEL RUNS IS FOR SFC LOW PRES TO
TRACK NE ACROSS FAR NRN LWR MI WHICH IS ESSENTIALLY RIGHT ALONG THE
MULTI DAY MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS UTILIZED FOR THE FCST OF THIS STORM
SYSTEM DURING THE LATTER PART OF LAST WEEK. WHILE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CURRENTLY DEPICTS AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING FEATURE...MODELS
HAVE BEEN AND CONTINUE TO POINT TO A FAST MOVING SYSTEM WITH THE
LACK OF AN ORGANIZED MID LEVEL LOW AS IT MOVES THRU THE UPPER LAKES.
OBVIOUSLY...FAST MOVEMENT LIMITS DURATION OF MDT/HVY SNOW. IN
ADDITION...THE LACK OF AN ORGANIZED MID LEVEL CENTER MEANS THIS
SYSTEM WON`T HAVE A SIGNIFICANT/ORGANIZED DEFORMATION PCPN SHIELD NW
OF THE LOW TRACK THAT WOULD LEAD TO PROLONGED MDT/HVY SNOW. AS A
RESULT...THIS WILL BASICALLY BE AN AVG KIND OF WINTER STORM FOR
UPPER MI WITH MUCH OF THE AREA REACHING WARNING CRITERIA...BUT
CERTAINLY NOT A BLOCKBUSTER STORM. HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS SHOULD BE IN
NCNTRL UPPER MI W OF MARQUETTE WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT/UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT OCCURS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
A NUMBER OF FACTORS INDICATE SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE FOR ABOUT A 2 TO 4HR PERIOD LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING.
COUPLING OF 2 UPPER JET STREAKS...LEFT EXIT OF ONE 150+KT JET
STREAKING TOWARD LWR MI AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A SECOND 140+KT
JET ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC...WILL LEAD TO STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE. DOWN TOWARD THE LOWER LEVELS...THERE IS A STRONG FGEN
RESPONSE IN ADDITION TO STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS NOTED ON 290K
SFC (ROUGHLY 700-750MB). ALONG WITH RATHER IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER
FORCING PER QVECTORS...ALL THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A ROUGHLY A 2-4HR
PERIOD OF MDT TO HVY SNOW LIFTING N ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATE THIS
AFTN AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY CNTRL AND E. HOWEVER...SINCE STRONGER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEGINS TO BE SHUNTED E WITH TIME AS SHORTWAVE
WEAKENS...SNOWFALL RATES WHICH WILL BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE OVER THE
PLAINS STATES WILL VERY LIKELY BE FALLING OFF AS THE SNOW SHIELD
LIFTS INTO UPPER MI. 00Z MODEL RUNS SUGGEST MID LEVEL DRYING WILL
SURGE INTO THE SCNTRL/ERN FCST AREA LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT BEHIND
THE MDT/HVY SNOW BAND. AS A RESULT...HAVE INTRODUCED -FZDZ IN THAT
AREA. OVERALL...MODELS SUGGEST SOMEWHAT LOWER SNOW TO WATER
RATIOS...AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME -FZDZ SCNTRL AND E...SNOW
TOTALS HAVE BEEN LOWERED A LITTLE OVER THE SE AND ERN FCST AREA.
SREF TRENDS HAVE ALSO SHOWN INCREASING SPREAD AND OVERALL LOWER SNOW
TOTALS OVER THE ERN FCST AREA...WITH THE MEAN RIGHT NEAR THE SUB 20
TO 1 SNOW TO WATER RATIO WARNING CRITERIA THRESHOLD OF 6IN/12HR.
MEANWHILE...THE CNTRL AND WRN FCST AREA SHOW A BETTER POTENTIAL OF
REACHING WARNING CRITERIA. GIVEN THE REGIONAL/GLOBAL CANADIAN MODELS
INSISTENCE ON A LOWER QPF EVENT OVERALL AND LATEST RAP MODEL RUN
INDICATING HEAVIER QPF LATE AFTN/EVENING PASSING TO THE E OF THE WRN
FCST AREA...WILL HOLD OFF ON CONVERTING THE WRN ADVY AREA TO A
WARNING. THAT SAID...LAKE ENHANCEMENT/UPSLOPE COMPONENT FOR WRN
GOGEBIC AND WRN ONTONAGON COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING
PUTS THAT AREA AT GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR REACHING WARNING CRITERIA.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR UPCOMING MODEL RUNS FOR A CONSISTENT SIGNAL TO
SEE IF AN UPGRADE TO WARNING WILL BE NEEDED.
IN THE END...EXPECT THE GREATEST SNOW TOTALS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
FROM AROUND NEGAUNEE/ISHPEMING INTO THE HURON MOUNTAINS WHERE
UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCEMENT COMPONENT WILL ADD AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES
TO SYNOPTIC SNOW. 850MB TEMPS ARE JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT...SO WOULD CERTAINLY LIKE TO SEE LOWER 850MB TEMPS TO
HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN BUMPING UP TOTALS SIGNIFICANTLY. ALL HIGH
RES GUIDANCE PEG THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH A NICE ENHANCEMENT OF
QPF...BUT HAVE TAKEN A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO BUMPING UP TOTALS.
FOR NOW...OFFICIAL FCST WILL SHOW TOTALS OF 12-14 INCHES FROM
NEGAUNEE/ISHPEMING THRU THE HURON MTNS.
FINALLY...AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES...THERE MAY NOT BE
MUCH BLSN SINCE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING. BLSN WILL BE MOST SIGNIFICANT
CLOSE TO THE GREAT LAKES. SYNOPTIC SETUP IS ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE FOR
STRONGER WINDS AROUND MENOMINEE THIS EVENING AS HEATHLY PRES FALLS
OF 5-8MB/3HR APPROACH FROM THE SW...SO THERE MAY BE 2-3HRS OF
CONSIDERABLE BLSN IN THAT AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
FOCUS CERTAINLY ON THE FIRST 12-18 HOURS OF THE FORECAST STARTING
12Z WED AS A WINTER STORM IS EXITING THE REGION.
BY 12Z WED MODELS SHOW A STRONG UPPER WAVE OVER THE WRN CWA AND S
INTO IA. AT THE SFC...AN ELONGATED LOW WILL STRETCH FROM THE IL/WI
BORDER TO NRN LOWER MI. SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON THE TRACK
OF THE MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE WED MORNING/AFTERNOON...BUT MOST MODELS
FAVOR KEEPING THE BEST SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO THE SE
OF THE AREA...THE 00Z/01 NAM BEING THE EXCEPTION WITH BRINGING THAT
PRECIP OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN CWA. EVEN IF THE BEST PRECIP STAYS
SE...MOST OF UPPER MI WILL BE SEEING SNOW WED MORNING...BUT THE BEST
AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER THE NCENTRAL AND FAR W...WHERE CYCLONIC
CURVATURE TO LOW LEVEL WINDS FAVORS THESE AREAS FOR LAKE/UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT (NE-NNE FLOW). WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TO THE N BY 18Z AS
850MB TEMPS DROP TO -10C TO -12C. SHOULD SEE SOME BOOST TO LAKE
ENHANCED AREAS BETWEEN 12Z AND 21Z AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES SE OF THE
AREA. BY 00Z THU...WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NW-NNW WITH 850MB TEMPS
DOWN TO -12C TO -15C...FAVORING A TRANSITION IN SNOWBELTS THROUGH THE
DAY. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD DIMINISH WED EVENING THROUGH WED NIGHT AS A
SFC RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE W. GENERALLY HAVE AN ADDITIONAL 2-4
INCHES NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR BETWEEN 12Z WED AND 06Z THU...WITH AROUND 5
INCHES OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS.
ANOTHER CRITICAL ELEMENT WILL BE WINDS...WHICH WILL BE GUSTING TO 35
MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND 20-25 MPH INLAND. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE NE-NNE TO START THE DAY...GRADUALLY BACKING TO THE NW BY THE END
OF THE DAY. HARDEST HIT AREAS FOR BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE
LAKESHORE AREAS OF THE KEWEENAW AND NCENTRAL UPPER MI...ESPECIALLY
M-28 BETWEEN MARQUETTE AND MUNISING.
FOR THU THROUGH MON...LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE PATTERN STICKS AROUND
WITH SOME WEAK CLIPPERS AND SURGES OF COLDER AIR. NOTHING STICKS OUT
AS PARTICULARLY SIGNIFICANT AT THIS POINT...SO WILL RUN WITH
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE AND FOCUS ON SHORTER TERM SYSTEM
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
VFR CIGS AT KSAW AND CIGS VARYING BTWN MVFR AND VFR AT KIWD/KCMX
WILL FALL TO PREVAILING MVFR EARLY THIS AFTN IN ADVANCE OF A WINTER
STORM APPROACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AS SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTN...CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY FALL TO IFR AT
ALL TERMINALS...THEN VARY BTWN LIFR AND IFR THRU TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
ALSO BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NE...CREATING BLSN AT TIMES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
INITIAL LIGHT WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE THIS
AFTN/EVENING AS LOW PRES TRACKS NE FROM THE SRN PLAINS...EVENTUALLY
CROSSING FAR NRN LWR MI LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING. FREQUENT GALE
FORCE GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NCNTL AND ADJACENT WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR...SO GALE WARNING REMAINS UP IN THAT AREA FOR LATE EVENING
THRU MID MORNING WED. AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS THU...THE NEXT
PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS WILL ARRIVE FRI/SAT WITH WINDS OF
20-30KT...STRONGEST OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON TO
4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ002-004>007-009-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ001-003-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ013-014.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ010-011.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ012.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
639 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
MOVING OUT OVER KS...WHILE AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS ORGANIZING OVER
SCNTRL KS. 00Z RAOBS SHOWED A STRONG SRLY FLOW DEVELOPING OFF THE
WRN GULF OF MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO THE HEIGHT FALLS PUSHING OUT OVER
THE SRN PLAINS...AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PCPN INCREASING OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS WITH SNOW SPREADING OUT ACROSS NEBRASKA/IA.
CONSENSUS OF THE ARRAY OF 00Z MODEL RUNS IS FOR SFC LOW PRES TO
TRACK NE ACROSS FAR NRN LWR MI WHICH IS ESSENTIALLY RIGHT ALONG THE
MULTI DAY MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS UTILIZED FOR THE FCST OF THIS STORM
SYSTEM DURING THE LATTER PART OF LAST WEEK. WHILE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CURRENTLY DEPICTS AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING FEATURE...MODELS
HAVE BEEN AND CONTINUE TO POINT TO A FAST MOVING SYSTEM WITH THE
LACK OF AN ORGANIZED MID LEVEL LOW AS IT MOVES THRU THE UPPER LAKES.
OBVIOUSLY...FAST MOVEMENT LIMITS DURATION OF MDT/HVY SNOW. IN
ADDITION...THE LACK OF AN ORGANIZED MID LEVEL CENTER MEANS THIS
SYSTEM WON`T HAVE A SIGNIFICANT/ORGANIZED DEFORMATION PCPN SHIELD NW
OF THE LOW TRACK THAT WOULD LEAD TO PROLONGED MDT/HVY SNOW. AS A
RESULT...THIS WILL BASICALLY BE AN AVG KIND OF WINTER STORM FOR
UPPER MI WITH MUCH OF THE AREA REACHING WARNING CRITERIA...BUT
CERTAINLY NOT A BLOCKBUSTER STORM. HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS SHOULD BE IN
NCNTRL UPPER MI W OF MARQUETTE WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT/UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT OCCURS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
A NUMBER OF FACTORS INDICATE SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE FOR ABOUT A 2 TO 4HR PERIOD LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING.
COUPLING OF 2 UPPER JET STREAKS...LEFT EXIT OF ONE 150+KT JET
STREAKING TOWARD LWR MI AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A SECOND 140+KT
JET ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC...WILL LEAD TO STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE. DOWN TOWARD THE LOWER LEVELS...THERE IS A STRONG FGEN
RESPONSE IN ADDITION TO STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS NOTED ON 290K
SFC (ROUGHLY 700-750MB). ALONG WITH RATHER IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER
FORCING PER QVECTORS...ALL THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A ROUGHLY A 2-4HR
PERIOD OF MDT TO HVY SNOW LIFTING N ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATE THIS
AFTN AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY CNTRL AND E. HOWEVER...SINCE STRONGER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEGINS TO BE SHUNTED E WITH TIME AS SHORTWAVE
WEAKENS...SNOWFALL RATES WHICH WILL BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE OVER THE
PLAINS STATES WILL VERY LIKELY BE FALLING OFF AS THE SNOW SHIELD
LIFTS INTO UPPER MI. 00Z MODEL RUNS SUGGEST MID LEVEL DRYING WILL
SURGE INTO THE SCNTRL/ERN FCST AREA LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT BEHIND
THE MDT/HVY SNOW BAND. AS A RESULT...HAVE INTRODUCED -FZDZ IN THAT
AREA. OVERALL...MODELS SUGGEST SOMEWHAT LOWER SNOW TO WATER
RATIOS...AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME -FZDZ SCNTRL AND E...SNOW
TOTALS HAVE BEEN LOWERED A LITTLE OVER THE SE AND ERN FCST AREA.
SREF TRENDS HAVE ALSO SHOWN INCREASING SPREAD AND OVERALL LOWER SNOW
TOTALS OVER THE ERN FCST AREA...WITH THE MEAN RIGHT NEAR THE SUB 20
TO 1 SNOW TO WATER RATIO WARNING CRITERIA THRESHOLD OF 6IN/12HR.
MEANWHILE...THE CNTRL AND WRN FCST AREA SHOW A BETTER POTENTIAL OF
REACHING WARNING CRITERIA. GIVEN THE REGIONAL/GLOBAL CANADIAN MODELS
INSISTENCE ON A LOWER QPF EVENT OVERALL AND LATEST RAP MODEL RUN
INDICATING HEAVIER QPF LATE AFTN/EVENING PASSING TO THE E OF THE WRN
FCST AREA...WILL HOLD OFF ON CONVERTING THE WRN ADVY AREA TO A
WARNING. THAT SAID...LAKE ENHANCEMENT/UPSLOPE COMPONENT FOR WRN
GOGEBIC AND WRN ONTONAGON COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING
PUTS THAT AREA AT GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR REACHING WARNING CRITERIA.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR UPCOMING MODEL RUNS FOR A CONSISTENT SIGNAL TO
SEE IF AN UPGRADE TO WARNING WILL BE NEEDED.
IN THE END...EXPECT THE GREATEST SNOW TOTALS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
FROM AROUND NEGAUNEE/ISHPEMING INTO THE HURON MOUNTAINS WHERE
UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCEMENT COMPONENT WILL ADD AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES
TO SYNOPTIC SNOW. 850MB TEMPS ARE JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT...SO WOULD CERTAINLY LIKE TO SEE LOWER 850MB TEMPS TO
HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN BUMPING UP TOTALS SIGNIFICANTLY. ALL HIGH
RES GUIDANCE PEG THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH A NICE ENHANCEMENT OF
QPF...BUT HAVE TAKEN A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO BUMPING UP TOTALS.
FOR NOW...OFFICIAL FCST WILL SHOW TOTALS OF 12-14 INCHES FROM
NEGAUNEE/ISHPEMING THRU THE HURON MTNS.
FINALLY...AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES...THERE MAY NOT BE
MUCH BLSN SINCE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING. BLSN WILL BE MOST SIGNIFICANT
CLOSE TO THE GREAT LAKES. SYNOPTIC SETUP IS ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE FOR
STRONGER WINDS AROUND MENOMINEE THIS EVENING AS HEATHLY PRES FALLS
OF 5-8MB/3HR APPROACH FROM THE SW...SO THERE MAY BE 2-3HRS OF
CONSIDERABLE BLSN IN THAT AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
FOCUS CERTAINLY ON THE FIRST 12-18 HOURS OF THE FORECAST STARTING
12Z WED AS A WINTER STORM IS EXITING THE REGION.
BY 12Z WED MODELS SHOW A STRONG UPPER WAVE OVER THE WRN CWA AND S
INTO IA. AT THE SFC...AN ELONGATED LOW WILL STRETCH FROM THE IL/WI
BORDER TO NRN LOWER MI. SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON THE TRACK
OF THE MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE WED MORNING/AFTERNOON...BUT MOST MODELS
FAVOR KEEPING THE BEST SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO THE SE
OF THE AREA...THE 00Z/01 NAM BEING THE EXCEPTION WITH BRINGING THAT
PRECIP OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN CWA. EVEN IF THE BEST PRECIP STAYS
SE...MOST OF UPPER MI WILL BE SEEING SNOW WED MORNING...BUT THE BEST
AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER THE NCENTRAL AND FAR W...WHERE CYCLONIC
CURVATURE TO LOW LEVEL WINDS FAVORS THESE AREAS FOR LAKE/UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT (NE-NNE FLOW). WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TO THE N BY 18Z AS
850MB TEMPS DROP TO -10C TO -12C. SHOULD SEE SOME BOOST TO LAKE
ENHANCED AREAS BETWEEN 12Z AND 21Z AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES SE OF THE
AREA. BY 00Z THU...WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NW-NNW WITH 850MB TEMPS
DOWN TO -12C TO -15C...FAVORING A TRANSITION IN SNOWBELTS THROUGH THE
DAY. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD DIMINISH WED EVENING THROUGH WED NIGHT AS A
SFC RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE W. GENERALLY HAVE AN ADDITIONAL 2-4
INCHES NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR BETWEEN 12Z WED AND 06Z THU...WITH AROUND 5
INCHES OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS.
ANOTHER CRITICAL ELEMENT WILL BE WINDS...WHICH WILL BE GUSTING TO 35
MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND 20-25 MPH INLAND. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE NE-NNE TO START THE DAY...GRADUALLY BACKING TO THE NW BY THE END
OF THE DAY. HARDEST HIT AREAS FOR BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE
LAKESHORE AREAS OF THE KEWEENAW AND NCENTRAL UPPER MI...ESPECIALLY
M-28 BETWEEN MARQUETTE AND MUNISING.
FOR THU THROUGH MON...LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE PATTERN STICKS AROUND
WITH SOME WEAK CLIPPERS AND SURGES OF COLDER AIR. NOTHING STICKS OUT
AS PARTICULARLY SIGNIFICANT AT THIS POINT...SO WILL RUN WITH
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE AND FOCUS ON SHORTER TERM SYSTEM
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
VFR CIGS AT KSAW AND CIGS VARYING BTWN MVFR AND VFR AT KIWD/KCMX
WILL FALL TO PREVAILING MVFR EARLY THIS AFTN IN ADVANCE OF A WINTER
STORM APPROACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AS SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTN...CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY FALL TO IFR AT
ALL TERMINALS...THEN VARY BTWN LIFR AND IFR THRU TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
ALSO BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NE...CREATING BLSN AT TIMES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
INITIAL LIGHT WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE THIS
AFTN/EVENING AS LOW PRES TRACKS NE FROM THE SRN PLAINS...EVENTUALLY
CROSSING FAR NRN LWR MI LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING. FREQUENT GALE
FORCE GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NCNTL AND ADJACENT WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR...SO GALE WARNING REMAINS UP IN THAT AREA FOR LATE EVENING
THRU MID MORNING WED. AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS THU...THE NEXT
PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS WILL ARRIVE FRI/SAT WITH WINDS OF
20-30KT...STRONGEST OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ004>007-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
TO 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ001>003-009-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ013-014.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ010-011.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ012.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
533 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
MOVING OUT OVER KS...WHILE AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS ORGANIZING OVER
SCNTRL KS. 00Z RAOBS SHOWED A STRONG SRLY FLOW DEVELOPING OFF THE
WRN GULF OF MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO THE HEIGHT FALLS PUSHING OUT OVER
THE SRN PLAINS...AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PCPN INCREASING OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS WITH SNOW SPREADING OUT ACROSS NEBRASKA/IA.
CONSENSUS OF THE ARRAY OF 00Z MODEL RUNS IS FOR SFC LOW PRES TO
TRACK NE ACROSS FAR NRN LWR MI WHICH IS ESSENTIALLY RIGHT ALONG THE
MULTI DAY MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS UTILIZED FOR THE FCST OF THIS STORM
SYSTEM DURING THE LATTER PART OF LAST WEEK. WHILE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CURRENTLY DEPICTS AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING FEATURE...MODELS
HAVE BEEN AND CONTINUE TO POINT TO A FAST MOVING SYSTEM WITH THE
LACK OF AN ORGANIZED MID LEVEL LOW AS IT MOVES THRU THE UPPER LAKES.
OBVIOUSLY...FAST MOVEMENT LIMITS DURATION OF MDT/HVY SNOW. IN
ADDITION...THE LACK OF AN ORGANIZED MID LEVEL CENTER MEANS THIS
SYSTEM WON`T HAVE A SIGNIFICANT/ORGANIZED DEFORMATION PCPN SHIELD NW
OF THE LOW TRACK THAT WOULD LEAD TO PROLONGED MDT/HVY SNOW. AS A
RESULT...THIS WILL BASICALLY BE AN AVG KIND OF WINTER STORM FOR
UPPER MI WITH MUCH OF THE AREA REACHING WARNING CRITERIA...BUT
CERTAINLY NOT A BLOCKBUSTER STORM. HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS SHOULD BE IN
NCNTRL UPPER MI W OF MARQUETTE WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT/UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT OCCURS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
A NUMBER OF FACTORS INDICATE SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE FOR ABOUT A 2 TO 4HR PERIOD LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING.
COUPLING OF 2 UPPER JET STREAKS...LEFT EXIT OF ONE 150+KT JET
STREAKING TOWARD LWR MI AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A SECOND 140+KT
JET ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC...WILL LEAD TO STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE. DOWN TOWARD THE LOWER LEVELS...THERE IS A STRONG FGEN
RESPONSE IN ADDITION TO STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS NOTED ON 290K
SFC (ROUGHLY 700-750MB). ALONG WITH RATHER IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER
FORCING PER QVECTORS...ALL THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A ROUGHLY A 2-4HR
PERIOD OF MDT TO HVY SNOW LIFTING N ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATE THIS
AFTN AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY CNTRL AND E. HOWEVER...SINCE STRONGER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEGINS TO BE SHUNTED E WITH TIME AS SHORTWAVE
WEAKENS...SNOWFALL RATES WHICH WILL BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE OVER THE
PLAINS STATES WILL VERY LIKELY BE FALLING OFF AS THE SNOW SHIELD
LIFTS INTO UPPER MI. 00Z MODEL RUNS SUGGEST MID LEVEL DRYING WILL
SURGE INTO THE SCNTRL/ERN FCST AREA LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT BEHIND
THE MDT/HVY SNOW BAND. AS A RESULT...HAVE INTRODUCED -FZDZ IN THAT
AREA. OVERALL...MODELS SUGGEST SOMEWHAT LOWER SNOW TO WATER
RATIOS...AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME -FZDZ SCNTRL AND E...SNOW
TOTALS HAVE BEEN LOWERED A LITTLE OVER THE SE AND ERN FCST AREA.
SREF TRENDS HAVE ALSO SHOWN INCREASING SPREAD AND OVERALL LOWER SNOW
TOTALS OVER THE ERN FCST AREA...WITH THE MEAN RIGHT NEAR THE SUB 20
TO 1 SNOW TO WATER RATIO WARNING CRITERIA THRESHOLD OF 6IN/12HR.
MEANWHILE...THE CNTRL AND WRN FCST AREA SHOW A BETTER POTENTIAL OF
REACHING WARNING CRITERIA. GIVEN THE REGIONAL/GLOBAL CANADIAN MODELS
INSISTENCE ON A LOWER QPF EVENT OVERALL AND LATEST RAP MODEL RUN
INDICATING HEAVIER QPF LATE AFTN/EVENING PASSING TO THE E OF THE WRN
FCST AREA...WILL HOLD OFF ON CONVERTING THE WRN ADVY AREA TO A
WARNING. THAT SAID...LAKE ENHANCEMENT/UPSLOPE COMPONENT FOR WRN
GOGEBIC AND WRN ONTONAGON COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING
PUTS THAT AREA AT GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR REACHING WARNING CRITERIA.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR UPCOMING MODEL RUNS FOR A CONSISTENT SIGNAL TO
SEE IF AN UPGRADE TO WARNING WILL BE NEEDED.
IN THE END...EXPECT THE GREATEST SNOW TOTALS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
FROM AROUND NEGAUNEE/ISHPEMING INTO THE HURON MOUNTAINS WHERE
UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCEMENT COMPONENT WILL ADD AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES
TO SYNOPTIC SNOW. 850MB TEMPS ARE JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT...SO WOULD CERTAINLY LIKE TO SEE LOWER 850MB TEMPS TO
HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN BUMPING UP TOTALS SIGNIFICANTLY. ALL HIGH
RES GUIDANCE PEG THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH A NICE ENHANCEMENT OF
QPF...BUT HAVE TAKEN A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO BUMPING UP TOTALS.
FOR NOW...OFFICIAL FCST WILL SHOW TOTALS OF 12-14 INCHES FROM
NEGAUNEE/ISHPEMING THRU THE HURON MTNS.
FINALLY...AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES...THERE MAY NOT BE
MUCH BLSN SINCE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING. BLSN WILL BE MOST SIGNIFICANT
CLOSE TO THE GREAT LAKES. SYNOPTIC SETUP IS ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE FOR
STRONGER WINDS AROUND MENOMINEE THIS EVENING AS HEATHLY PRES FALLS
OF 5-8MB/3HR APPROACH FROM THE SW...SO THERE MAY BE 2-3HRS OF
CONSIDERABLE BLSN IN THAT AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
FOCUS CERTAINLY ON THE FIRST 12-18 HOURS OF THE FORECAST STARTING
12Z WED AS A WINTER STORM IS EXITING THE REGION.
BY 12Z WED MODELS SHOW A STRONG UPPER WAVE OVER THE WRN CWA AND S
INTO IA. AT THE SFC...AN ELONGATED LOW WILL STRETCH FROM THE IL/WI
BORDER TO NRN LOWER MI. SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON THE TRACK
OF THE MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE WED MORNING/AFTERNOON...BUT MOST MODELS
FAVOR KEEPING THE BEST SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO THE SE
OF THE AREA...THE 00Z/01 NAM BEING THE EXCEPTION WITH BRINGING THAT
PRECIP OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN CWA. EVEN IF THE BEST PRECIP STAYS
SE...MOST OF UPPER MI WILL BE SEEING SNOW WED MORNING...BUT THE BEST
AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER THE NCENTRAL AND FAR W...WHERE CYCLONIC
CURVATURE TO LOW LEVEL WINDS FAVORS THESE AREAS FOR LAKE/UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT (NE-NNE FLOW). WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TO THE N BY 18Z AS
850MB TEMPS DROP TO -10C TO -12C. SHOULD SEE SOME BOOST TO LAKE
ENHANCED AREAS BETWEEN 12Z AND 21Z AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES SE OF THE
AREA. BY 00Z THU...WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NW-NNW WITH 850MB TEMPS
DOWN TO -12C TO -15C...FAVORING A TRANSITION IN SNOWBELTS THROUGH THE
DAY. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD DIMINISH WED EVENING THROUGH WED NIGHT AS A
SFC RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE W. GENERALLY HAVE AN ADDITIONAL 2-4
INCHES NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR BETWEEN 12Z WED AND 06Z THU...WITH AROUND 5
INCHES OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS.
ANOTHER CRITICAL ELEMENT WILL BE WINDS...WHICH WILL BE GUSTING TO 35
MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND 20-25 MPH INLAND. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE NE-NNE TO START THE DAY...GRADUALLY BACKING TO THE NW BY THE END
OF THE DAY. HARDEST HIT AREAS FOR BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE
LAKESHORE AREAS OF THE KEWEENAW AND NCENTRAL UPPER MI...ESPECIALLY
M-28 BETWEEN MARQUETTE AND MUNISING.
FOR THU THROUGH MON...LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE PATTERN STICKS AROUND
WITH SOME WEAK CLIPPERS AND SURGES OF COLDER AIR. NOTHING STICKS OUT
AS PARTICULARLY SIGNIFICANT AT THIS POINT...SO WILL RUN WITH
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE AND FOCUS ON SHORTER TERM SYSTEM
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER PENINSULA
THROUGH THE NIGHT FAVORING CIGS INTO THE MVFR RANGE TOWARD DAYBREAK.
SOME FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP AT CMX AND SAW LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNING BUT SINCE VSBY WOULD NOT LIKELY DROP BLO MVFR AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW...FOG WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF. THE NEXT PERIOD
OF LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL MOVE IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
IFR CIG/VSBY IN SNOW WITH AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO DROP TO LIFR VSBY AT SAW DURING THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY AT
IWD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
INITIAL LIGHT WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE THIS
AFTN/EVENING AS LOW PRES TRACKS NE FROM THE SRN PLAINS...EVENTUALLY
CROSSING FAR NRN LWR MI LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING. FREQUENT GALE
FORCE GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NCNTL AND ADJACENT WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR...SO GALE WARNING REMAINS UP IN THAT AREA FOR LATE EVENING
THRU MID MORNING WED. AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS THU...THE NEXT
PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS WILL ARRIVE FRI/SAT WITH WINDS OF
20-30KT...STRONGEST OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ004>007-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
TO 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ001>003-009-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ013-014.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ010-011.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ012.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
612 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 235 AM CST Tue Feb 2 2016
Showers and a few thunderstorms were moving north-northeastward
through western MO, just west of our forecast area early this
morning. This activity was in the vicinity of a strong southerly
low level jet and ahead of an upper level low and associated
surface low over southwest KS. The upper level low will move
northeastward into southeast Nebraska and western Iowa by 00z
Wednesday while the surface low moves into northwest MO. Showers
and scattered thunderstorms will sweep eastward through our
forecast area today as depicted by the latest HRRR run. The
models were depicting very strong 850 mb warm air advection,
theta-e advecton, and moisture convergence across much of our area
this morning into the afternoon on the nose of the strong
southerly low level jet as it translates eastward through our
region. Best potential for any severe storms will be across parts
of southeast MO and southwest IL this afternoon where the best
instability will be. The primary threat will be damaging winds.
The precipitation should shut off quickly this afternoon over
central MO as the dry slot moves northeastward into our area with
partial clearing. Strong and gusty surface winds can be expected
this morning into the afternoon, close to wind advisory criteria
due to the relatively tight surface pressure gradient and momentum
transfer to the surface from the strong low level jet. Despite the
cloud cover and precipitation, highs will be well above normal
today and warmer than yesterday.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 235 AM CST Tue Feb 2 2016
The precipitation should shift east of our forecast area this
evening with colder air filtering eastward into our area south and
southwest of the surface and upper level low. Wrap-around type
low level cloudiness will advect southeastward into our area
tonight with light snow or flurries possible, mainly across
northeast MO late tonight. Little if any accumulation is expected.
Much colder temperatures can be expected late tonight and
Wednesday with highs on Wednesday close to seasonal normals for
early February. Low level cloudiness will keep highs down on
Wednesday and there may be a few flurries. Winds will also be
strong and gusty with a tight surface pressure gradient between
the surface low moving northeastward through the Great Lakes
region and the surface ridge building eastward into our area from
the Plains. Tranquil and dry weather can be expected for the later
portion of the work week with temperatures close to seasonal
normals, then a little warmer for the weekend. A deepening upper
level trough over the northern Plains will send a cold front
southeastward through our area Sunday night. Both the GFS and
ECMWF models depict a cold pattern for the early portion of the
next work week with a deep upper level trough extending from the
Great Lakes into our area, along with persistent northwesterly
surface winds, and cold 850 mb temperatures.
GKS
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 548 AM CST Tue Feb 2 2016
Primary concern this morning is low level wind shear. AMDAR
sounding out of KSTL is confirming guidance forecasts of southeast
flow in excess of 40kts within 2000 ft of the surface this
morning. LLWS conditions should persist through much of the
morning. Second concern is MVFR ceilings spreading north out of
southern Missouri. These low ceilings should overspread the entire
area this morning...eventually falling to IFR as the day
progresses and precipitation increases in areal coverage. Will
also have to deal with scattered thunderstorms and the possibility
of wind gusts in excess of 50kts primarily over eastern Missouri
and Illinois today. A dry slot will punch into the area this
afternoon, switching the wind to the south-southwest and the low
ceilings will quickly erode leaving VFR flight conditions over the
area for the evening. Low clouds will wrap around the storm system
which is causing all of this weather and will overspread the area
from the northwest late tonight.
Specifics for KSTL:
AMDAR sounding from KSTL is confirming wind in excess of 40kts
within 2000 ft of the ground this morning. Have therefore
continued mention of LLWS in the TAF. Really only dropped the LLWS
later this morning when TS is started since TS implies wind shear.
The timing on ceilings below 2000 ft is not certain...think model
guidance is a little fast which is why I held off until 15Z...tho
1500 ft cigs are lurking over KFAM and KVIH. At any rate, ceiling
should drop over the next 2-4 hours and showers with a few
thunderstorms should overspread the terminal. Should see ceilings
improve during the late afternoon as the dry slot moves through.
Expect VFR flight conditions to prevail through the evening and
probably most of the night until low clouds move in early
Wednesday morning.
Carney
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1001 AM PST TUE FEB 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...TWO WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE DISTRICT BETWEEN NOW AND MIDWEEK. THE FIRST WILL SPREAD LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA TODAY...AND THE SECOND WILL
DO SIMILARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A
WARMING TREND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:12 AM PST TUESDAY...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, MAINLY FROM THE SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD. GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL IS
OCCURRING WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT SHIFTS TOWARD THE SOUTH. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE COASTAL RANGES OF MONTEREY COUNTY.
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH
LATE MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THIS BOUNDARY SWEEPING THROUGH THE
REGION, TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE
OF SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO
UPPER 50S. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT TODAY AND
BECOME WEAK OFFSHORE TONIGHT. UPDATED SHORT-TERM FORECAST PACKAGE
HAS BEEN SENT OUT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST TUESDAY...CHILLY START TO
THE DAY FOR A PORTION OF OUR SOUTHERN CWA. CURRENTLY BOTH SALINAS
AND WATSONVILLE ARE AT 37. FOR SF BAY METRO REGION MOST LOCATIONS
ARE IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE WITH DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO STILL
IN THE UPPER 40S.
SATELLITE AND ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SYSTEM JUST OFF THE COAST THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA TODAY. KMUX RADAR HAS BEEN BACK UP SINCE
THE EVENING WHICH WILL GREATLY HELP TODAY WITH THE TIMING OF RAIN.
LATEST HRRR AND NAM BOTH BRING ACROSS THE NORTH BAY THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND DOWN TO SF BAY AREA STARTING AROUND SUNRISE. THE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS DOWN TO THE MONTEREY BAY BY LATE IN THE
MORNING. OVERALL, LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING FROM YESTERDAY WITH
MODELS CONTINUING TO DEPICT PW VALUES OF 0.60" TO 0.70" BY LATE IN
THE MORNING. PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE .1" TO .2" FOR MANY URBAN
LOCATIONS WITH LOCALLY MORE THAN 1/3" FOR COASTAL RANGES. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 4,000 TODAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME VERY
SMALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
AFTER A SHORT BREAK IN THE RAIN A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING BRINGS IT TO THE NORTH BAY LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN TO SF BAY REGION DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WILL LIKELY BE SOME RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON COMMUTE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE CLOSE TO TODAY`S
VALUES ALTHOUGH PW VALUES WILL BE JUST A BIT HIGHER, SO COULD SEE
A FEW LOCALLY SPOTS FAIRING A BIT BETTER. .
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE COAST STARTING ON THURSDAY
AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE MAIN INFLUENCE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN AND HAVE BEEN INDICATING THIS THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THEREFORE, A VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE WITH WIDESPREAD MID
60S TO LOWER 70S LIKELY FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT TUESDAY. ECMWF
GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 70S IN MONTEREY BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE PERFECT WEATHER FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 AM PST TUESDAY...AS THE 18Z TAFS BECOME
VALID IT WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL PERIOD WEATHER WISE. AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH RAIN WILL BE ENDING FROM N-S AND THE SAME
FOR LIFTING CIGS. GENERALLY SPEAKING...MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING. CONF IS MARGINAL AS LINGERING
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY LEAD TO MORE CLOUD COVER THIS
AFTERNOON. NEXT ROUND OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE LATE WEDNESDAY.
VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS THROUGH 18-19Z. THERE ARE ALREADY
SOME BLUE SKIES APPEARING ON THE CAMS AND VIS SATELLITE. CURRENT
TAFS WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH 20-21Z THEN A GRADUAL
WESTERLY SWITCH. MARGINAL MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS WITH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH 21Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 09:12 AM PST TUESDAY...LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS THEN INCREASE AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. A LONG
PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS/BELL
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM/CW
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
919 AM PST TUE FEB 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...TWO WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE DISTRICT BETWEEN NOW AND MIDWEEK. THE FIRST WILL SPREAD LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA TODAY...AND THE SECOND WILL
DO SIMILARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A
WARMING TREND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:12 AM PST TUESDAY...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, MAINLY FROM THE SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD. GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL IS
OCCURRING WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT SHIFTS TOWARD THE SOUTH. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE COASTAL RANGES OF MONTEREY COUNTY.
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH
LATE MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THIS BOUNDARY SWEEPING THROUGH THE
REGION, TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE
OF SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO
UPPER 50S. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT TODAY AND
BECOME WEAK OFFSHORE TONIGHT. UPDATED SHORT-TERM FORECAST PACKAGE
HAS BEEN SENT OUT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST TUESDAY...CHILLY START TO
THE DAY FOR A PORTION OF OUR SOUTHERN CWA. CURRENTLY BOTH SALINAS
AND WATSONVILLE ARE AT 37. FOR SF BAY METRO REGION MOST LOCATIONS
ARE IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE WITH DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO STILL
IN THE UPPER 40S.
SATELLITE AND ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SYSTEM JUST OFF THE COAST THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA TODAY. KMUX RADAR HAS BEEN BACK UP SINCE
THE EVENING WHICH WILL GREATLY HELP TODAY WITH THE TIMING OF RAIN.
LATEST HRRR AND NAM BOTH BRING ACROSS THE NORTH BAY THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND DOWN TO SF BAY AREA STARTING AROUND SUNRISE. THE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS DOWN TO THE MONTEREY BAY BY LATE IN THE
MORNING. OVERALL, LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING FROM YESTERDAY WITH
MODELS CONTINUING TO DEPICT PW VALUES OF 0.60" TO 0.70" BY LATE IN
THE MORNING. PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE .1" TO .2" FOR MANY URBAN
LOCATIONS WITH LOCALLY MORE THAN 1/3" FOR COASTAL RANGES. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 4,000 TODAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME VERY
SMALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
AFTER A SHORT BREAK IN THE RAIN A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING BRINGS IT TO THE NORTH BAY LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN TO SF BAY REGION DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WILL LIKELY BE SOME RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON COMMUTE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE CLOSE TO TODAY`S
VALUES ALTHOUGH PW VALUES WILL BE JUST A BIT HIGHER, SO COULD SEE
A FEW LOCALLY SPOTS FAIRING A BIT BETTER. .
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE COAST STARTING ON THURSDAY
AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE MAIN INFLUENCE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN AND HAVE BEEN INDICATING THIS THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THEREFORE, A VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE WITH WIDESPREAD MID
60S TO LOWER 70S LIKELY FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT TUESDAY. ECMWF
GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 70S IN MONTEREY BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE PERFECT WEATHER FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 03:59 AM PST TUESDAY... WEAK FRONT ADVANCING
FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING GRADUALLY DETERIORATING CIGS TO THE
REGION. CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN 2500 FT AGL OR ABOVE... WITH VFR
CIGS PREVAILING THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. BRIEF INTERMITTENT
MVFR POSBL THRU 20Z. VCSH POSBL IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE 10KT OR LESS.
VICINITY OF KSFO...CIGS WILL PREDOMINATELY BE 3000 FT AGL OR ABOVE
WITH BRIEF MVFR POSBL UNTIL 20Z. LIGHT RAIN POSBL BTWN 16Z AND
19Z. WINDS 10KT OR LESS.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CIGS WILL PREDOMINATELY BE 3000 FT
AGL OR ABOVE WITH BRIEF MVFR POSBL UNTIL 20Z. LIGHT RAIN POSBL
BTWN 16 AND 19Z. WINDS 10KT OR LESS.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 09:12 AM PST TUESDAY...LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS THEN INCREASE AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. A LONG
PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS/BELL
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: MM
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
453 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT...AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION
TONIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM WELL ABOVE FREEZING WITH
PERIODS OF RAINFALL...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...INITIALLY AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY...AND THEN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AT
NIGHT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND STRONG GUSTS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ENDING...AS A COLDER AIR MASS BUILDS
IN FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 PM EST TUESDAY...
A 1028 HPA SFC ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON FROM SRN QUEBEC. THE SKIES HAVE CLEARED DUE
TO THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC HIGH. THE SYNOPTIC SET-
UP WILL BE THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES INITIALLY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF INTO THE M20S
TO M30S EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
WARM FRONT TO A POTENT STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.
THE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND SOME
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE WEST OR NORTHWEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY. THE NAM OR HRRR GUIDANCE IS THE SLOWEST BRINGING THE
INITIAL SURGE OF PCPN INTO THE REGION...WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER. TEMPS SHOULD BE ON THE RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
THE STRENGTHENING S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET. THE 925 HPA WINDS INCREASE
TO 30-40 KTS BTWN 09Z-12Z. WE ARE CONCERNED ABOUT SOME FUNNELING
OF THE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED GUSTS IN THE NARROW NORTH TO SOUTH
VALLEYS IN SRN HERKIMER COUNTY...AND HAVE BEGUN A WIND ADVISORY AT
5 AM THERE. S/SE WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 45-50
MPH ARE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL WIND ADVISORIES COMMENCE FURTHER EAST
FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THAT WILL
BE DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.
IN TERMS OF MIXED PCPN OR RAIN...AGAIN...THE ONSET MAY BE MORE
AFTER 7 AM FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. USING THE GFS
THERMAL PROFILES WITH A TOP-DOWN APPROACH...MOSTLY SNOW/SLEET
CHANGING TO RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE LATEST BUFFER SOUNDINGS...AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM SUPPORT A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW/SLEET
TO RAIN. WE DID LEAVE A CHANCE OF -FZRA BRIEFLY FOR HAMILTON...NRN
HERKIMER...AND NRN WARREN...BUT BASED ON THE GUIDANCE AND
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFO/S NO WSWS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT
THIS TIME. LOW TEMPS AGAIN WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND
30F NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION REGION...AND LOWER TO M30S FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WED TO 5 PM WED FOR SOUTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY...
...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WED TO 5 PM WED FOR SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON...EASTERN RENSSELAER...EASTERN COLUMBIA COUNTIES IN ERN
NY...BERKSHIRE CTY MA...AND BENNINGTON...AND WRN WINDHAM COUNTIES
IN SOUTHERN VT...
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE UNTIL THE LATE MORNING FOR THE
SRN DACKS...NRN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND SRN
VT...BUT THE LATEST THERMAL PROFILES INDICATES MAINLY SNOW/SLEET
CHANGING TO RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET. THE BIGGER ISSUES WILL BE
WINDS...AND A 12-HR WINDOW OF SOME MDT-HVY RAINFALL FOR MOST OF
THE FCST AREA. ANY SNOW OR SLEET ACCUMS WOULD A FEW TENTHS TO
POSSIBLY AN INCH.
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS ON THE 290K SFC AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT TO A STRONG CYCLONE MOVING FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO SE ONTARIO AND SRN QUEBEC. THE 925 WINDS CONTINUE TO
BE FROM THE SE TO S AT 30-45 KTS WITH THE H850 WINDS CRANKING UP
TO 55-70 KTS FROM THE S TO SW. PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE IS
TRANSPORTED INTO THE REGION FOR PERIODS OF RAIN...OCCASIONALLY
HEAVY AT TIMES. THE LATEST GEFS HAVE PWATS SURGING TO 3 TO 5 STD
DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. THE H850/H925 SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES ARE 3 TO
4 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL /+V-COMPONENT OF THE WIND/. H850 TEMPS
RISE TO +2 TO +3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. BASICALLY...A SOGGY DAY IS
ON TAP FOR THE FCST AREA WITH A HALF AN INCH TO PERHAPS AN INCH+
OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...BUT DUE TO THE RECENT DRY
SPELL...THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HYDRO DISCUSSION BELOW. SOME WIND GUSTS FROM
THE S/SE IN THE 45-50 MPH RANGE ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE RAIN
OVER THE N-CNTRL TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND WEST OF THE SRN
GREENS IN VT...AS WELL AS SRN HERKIMER COUNTY. IF THE RAINSHIELD
QUICKLY FILLS IN...THEN THE GUSTS MAY BE LESS. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW
A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION...WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT GUSTS IN THE NON-
ADVISORY AREA. THE SHOWALTER STABILITY INDICES STAY POSITIVE FOR
MOST OF THE DAY...EXCEPT CLOSE TO SRN DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD CTY
CTY ON THE NAM IN THE EVENING. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY BE
POSSIBLE...BUT WE AGREE WITH THE LATEST SPC DAY 2 TO LEAVE MENTION
OF THUNDER OUT FOR NOW. THE GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE RAIN MAY BEGIN TO TAPER ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE FCST AREA
TOWARDS 6 PM.
HIGHS TOMORROW WONT LIKELY REACH RECORD VALUES...BUT WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL BY 15 TO 20+ DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE M40S TO AROUND 50F
OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS...AND U40S TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS.
WED NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION...AS THE COLD
FRONT TO THE SYSTEM WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING. AGAIN...THE NAM
INDICATES A POCKET OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY SCRAPING THE SE PORTION
OF THE CWA. SCT SHOWERS WILL LINGER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY
WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING BACK TO 0C TO -7C FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION...SRN VT...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS NORTH AND WEST...AND 0C
TO TO +4C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE U30S TO
L30S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST...AND U20S TO M30S TO
THE NORTH AND WEST.
THU-THU NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THU WITH
SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. DEEP
MIXING AND DOWNSLOPING WILL STILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL BY 10 DEGS OR SO FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY SOUTH AND
EAST WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U40S. NORTH AND WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S TO L40S. THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS FINALLY MOVES THROUGH WITH A SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM
THE TN AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNEXCITING PERIOD...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...AND
AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK TO BRING SOME
POSSIBLE MEASURABLE SNOWFALL TO ALL OUR ZONES ON TUESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN MOSTLY THE 20S AND 30S...ALTHOUGH
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES MILDER WITH A WARM FRONT
PASSING TO THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND
20S...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN EAST OF THE SITES TONIGHT. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z/WED...WITH JUST
THICKENING HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...PRECIPITATION WILL
QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES BETWEEN ROUGHLY 13Z-16Z/WED. AT
KGFL...THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR REMAINING WHERE THE
PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS SOME SNOW OR A SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX
FOR A BRIEF TIME. ELSEWHERE...PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED.
CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MVFR RANGE SHORTLY AFTER THE ONSET
OF THE PRECIPITATION...WITH AREAS OF IFR POSSIBLE TOWARD
18Z/WED...ESP AT KGFL.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT AT KALB AND KPSF
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE POSSIBLE
EARLY. AT KGFL...WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT
5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE REMAINING LIGHT/VARIABLE AT KPOU.
FOR TONIGHT...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH TOWARD 12Z/WED AT 5-10 KT...AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT WITH SOME
STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z/WED...ESP AT KALB WHERE SOME GUSTS
COULD REACH 20 KT OR HIGHER.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BECOME PROBLEMATIC AFTER 07Z/WED...AS SFC
WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH AT LESS THAN 12 KT...WHILE
WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 30-40 KT OR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
THURSDAY TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY. A
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL
REGION...OTHERWISE RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR
IS USHERED BACK IN. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE RAIN COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF
RAINFALL. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 2 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...AND THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST
FACING SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS
OF VERMONT.
THE LATEST OFFICIAL NERFC FORECASTS FOR THE MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE
ONLY KAST BRIDGE IN THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND WILLIAMSTOWN IN
THE NRN BERKS BARELY EXCEEDING THEIR RESPECTIVE ALERT STAGES BY A
FEW INCHES. OVERALL SOME 1 TO 2.5 FOOT RISES ARE EXPECTED ON THE
MAIN STEM RIVERS...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES COMBINED WITH RUNOFF OCCURS. ADDED
EFFECTS OF SNOWMELT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL BE MITIGATED
DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS THE REGION.
BEHIND THIS STORM SYSTEM...PRECIP WILL END AND TEMPS WILL TURN
COLDER...ALLOWING THE WATER TO RECEDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. OVERALL...NO WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ054-061-
084.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ038.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013-014.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...IRL/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
202 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN
STALL NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. COOLER AND MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND MAY
BRING A FEW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDLANDS...FROM SUMTER THROUGH
DENTSVILLE TO NEWBERRY EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE THIS AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER OVER THE NORTH MIDLANDS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WITH WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE
EVENING...BUT FOCUS LIKELY REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STILL IN PLACE AND DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE WEST.
THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN IN THE UPSTATE THROUGH
THIS EVENING WHICH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN KEEPING POPS LOW THIS
AFTERNOON.
A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED WITH READINGS NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY IN THE LOWER 60S UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...RANGING THROUGH THE 70S.
MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE AREA WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
UPPER 50S COMMON NORTH...WITH LOWER 60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...THROUGH SPREADING EAST TOWARD DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MOISTURE FLUX/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS LIKELY ONGOING DURING
THE MORNING...MAINLY ELEVATED. PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOUT 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...APPROACHING 1.80 INCHES BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE
IN THE DAY. MODELS SUGGEST WEAK CONVECTION EARLY WITH POSSIBLE
STRONGER CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. INSTABILITYMAY
BE A LIMITING FACTOR...WITH SURFACE BASED CAP POSSIBLE AND UPPER
FORCING LIMITED. BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRONG. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR FRONT BUT THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL AT
THIS TIME. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS. TEMPERATURES
WARM IN THE LOW 70S MOST AREAS WITH STRONG SOUTH LOW LEVEL
FLOW/RESULTING WARM ADVECTION. LIKELY BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS ABOVE 20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE
CWA...BUT SLOWING DOWN AS IT DOES. POPS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH
THE NIGHT ACROSS THE WEST...BUT WILL STILL HOLD ON TO CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS FROM WEST TO EAST DUE TO THE FRONT SLOWING DOWN.
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH THE FRONT STALLED OUT ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY...THERE SHOULD
STILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO PORTIONS OF THURSDAY NIGHT.
UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE FRIDAY EXPECT DRYING AND COOLER CONDITIONS...NEAR
OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY...AND WILL FORECAST LOW POPS LATE
IN THE PERIOD DUE TO POSSIBLE COASTAL STORM...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW
DUE TO LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF CAE/CUB WITH IFR CIGS
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. A STRONG 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. LLWS POSSIBLE 03/03Z
THROUGH 03/16Z. IFR CIGS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TAF SITES AFTER
00Z...AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL ALSO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED
SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO RESTRICTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES. IFR CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FORECAST
AFTER 12Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
233 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
Surface map at 20Z/2 pm showed strong 993 mb low pressure along the
eastern KS/NE border with an occluding front extending through
northern MO into southern IL. Another boundary/warm front was just
south of Peoria and just north of BMI with some fog along and north
of this boundary. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms were
over central IL at mid afternoon mainly east of a Galesburg to St
Louis line and tracking NNE. A narrow band of heavier rains with
some thunder was along I-55 from Springfield to Bloomington.
Meanwhile a dry slot with clearing skies was over central and
southern MO and moving northeast toward SW IL.
Temps ranged from 37F at Galesburg and Lacon where east winds
persisted to 57F along highway 50 at Flora, Lawrenceville and Mount
Carmel airports where se winds were veering SSE. Pressure gradient
has weakened a bit during the day across central IL so ESE winds not
quite as strong ranging from 10-20 mph and gusts of 20-30 mph at mid
afternoon.
The HRRR model has been doing fairly well with convection so far
today and leaned on this model going into this evening. It has the
showers and isolated thunderstorms ending over western CWA late this
afternoon and in eastern IL during early/mid evening with most areas
dry by 9 or 10 pm. SPC still have slight risk of severe storms this
afternoon southeast of Terre Haute to Flora line where 15% risk of
damaging wind gusts and 5% risk of tornadoes and large hail. Better
threat of severe storms is over more unstable airmass in far
southeast IL into KY and sw IN from I-64 south.
Low pressure to track northeast to near Dubuque by 09Z/3 am and into
southeast WI by sunrise Wed. A strong short wave/trof to push into
the IL river valley between 09-12Z Wed (3-6 am Wed) and have slight
chances of light rain or light snow later tonight. Lows late tonight
to range from mid 30s over the IL river valley (33F at Galesburg) to
the lower 40s near the Wabash river (42F at Lawrenceville). SE winds
to turn SW by overnight and range from 8-16 mph overall tonight.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
Tomorrow, the low will be pushing through the Great Lakes region
with a trailing sfc trough that will rotate through northern IL.
This sfc trough will also coincide with the 500mb trough that will
mover through the area. The combination of these two features will
bring a slight chance of light snow or rain to northwestern parts of
the CWA Wed morning. By afternoon all pcpn will have moved off to
the northeast, out of the CWA. Brief high pressure will move through
the area after this weather system moves through, along with the
pattern changing to a long wave trough pattern. This trough pattern
will bring another sfc trough through the area Thursday night, but
there will be a severe lack of moisture, so no pcpn is expected.
Then dry weather will be expected through the rest of the week and
into the the weekend. Temps will hover around normal through the
rest of the week and then will warm to above normal levels for the
weekend.
At the end of the weekend and the beginning of next week a northwest
flow pattern will setup over the area and looks like it may hang
around for an extended period. This northwest flow will allow a
series of clippers to move southeast through the Great Lakes area,
Sunday night through Tuesday. For now, will just keep the slight
chance of pcpn that the blended forecast has. Once the clippers
begin to move through, colder air will be allowed to pour into the
area and bring temps back to below normal.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
Strong low pressure of 993 mb along the eastern KS/NE border will
lift ne into central IA by midnight/06z tonight and into southeast
WI by sunrise Wed, and to northern lower MI by 18Z/noon Wed. A
band of showers and possible thunderstorms over the IL river
valley will spread ne across central/eastern IL next few hours and
then diminish late this afternoon/early evening from west to east
as dry slot works in. Have ceilings below 1k ft and vsbys 1-3
miles with this convection this afternoon over central IL. Low
clouds to scatter out with dry slow from west to east during
00Z-03Z time frame this evening. MVFR ceilings to return from the
west with wrap around between 09-13Z along. Brunt of light snow
should stay nw of central IL overnight into Wed morning but
carried VCSH at BMI and PIA which have better chance of light snow
showers. SE winds 15-25 kts and gusts 25-35 kts to veer sw and
diminish to 10-15 kts late today and have gusts of 20-25 kts late
tonight or Wed morning.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
350 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND TAKING A NEGATIVE TILT AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES. THE STRONG CIRCULATION IS
EVIDENT BASED ON VIS/IR SATELLITE DATA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. RADAR TRENDS SHOW A SMALL BAND OF
SNOWFALL CONTINUING TO BRING LIGHT SNOW FOR SOME PORTIONS OF EASTERN
COLORADO AND EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS...MAINLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...RADAR REFLECTIVITIES APPEAR TO BE TRENDING
DOWNWARD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
IN THE NEAR TERM UP TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE WINTER STORM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND NEW SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE TO LESSEN.
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON COULD REACH UP TO AN
INCH...BUT LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW COULD OCCUR ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER
UP TO 2 INCHES. RAP MODEL THETA LAPSE RATES/NEGATIVE EPV VALUES
INDICATE AN AREA OF MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH SOME FRONTOGENESIS PRESENT ALONG THE SAME
AXIS AS THE CURRENT RADAR TREND WITH THE SNOW BAND POSITIONED NEAR
THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. A SNOW BAND MOVING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80 ALONG HIGHWAY 283 COULD ALSO BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW UP TO AN
INCH FOR NORTON AND HILL CITY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE LOW
CENTER MOVES EAST ENOUGH TO END THE SNOW THREAT.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS IS THE
BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY THREAT. STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OF 16-18 MB HAS BROUGHT STRONG WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AT TIMES...AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES
NOT HAVE THIS GRADIENT LESSENING FOR THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT
MST (1 AM CST) TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES...DESPITE THERE BEING NO
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. UNLESS
ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY...TRAVEL IS NOT ADVISED.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD STABILIZE AFTER MIDNIGHT MST (1 AM
CST) TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY END THE BLOWING SNOW AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY THREAT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION FROM NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN BETWEEN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND THE MIDDLE TEENS. COLD TEMPERATURES IN
COMBINATION WITH WIND GUSTS WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 10 ABOVE
TO 10 BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016
STRONG UPPER LOW TRANSITIONS EAST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LARGE SCALE RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE
WESTERN US RESULTING IN A SHARP N-NW FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN MAY SUPPORT QUICK SHOTS OF
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. OVERALL CHANCES OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THESE PERIODS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH A
PREDOMINANTLY DRY FORECAST. THIS IS DUE TO EITHER DEEPER DRY AIR
MASS BETWEEN CLIPPERS OR LACK OF CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS.
TEMPERATURES ARE PARTICULARLY TRICKY AS THIS PATTERN WOULD NORMALLY
SUPPORT A TREND TOWARDS SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER WITH THE
ONGOING SNOW EVENT AND AT LEAST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA
RECEIVING 10" OR MORE OF SNOW HIGH TEMPERATURES IN PARTICULAR ARE
LIKELY GOING TO BE LOWER THAN MODELS INDICATE. I TRENDED ALL HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN AND UNDERCUT ALL GUIDANCE THROUGH THESE PERIODS.
SNOW WILL ALSO AID IN RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE NIGHT...AND
ASSUMING WINDS REMAIN LIGHT (TO PREVENT LOW LEVEL MIXING) MODELS MAY
HAVE A WARM BIAS ON LOWS.
REGARDING WIND CHILLS WED NIGHT/THU MORNING...THE AIR MASS AND
ORIENTATION OF THE WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT MIGHT ACTUALLY LEAD TO MORE
MIXING WHICH COULD OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF SNOW/CLEARING SKIES AND
RESULTING WIND CHILLS MAY NOT ACTUALLY REACH -15F (ADVISORY). IT IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR -10 TO -20F WIND CHILLS...BUT I THINK THIS
MAY BE A LOCALIZED THREAT. WITH ONGOING HAZARDS THERE ARE NO CURRENT
PLANS FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016
FOR KGLD AND KMCK...MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE
THROUGH 5Z OR SO AS OUR WINTER STORM CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST
BRINGING A SLOW DECREASE IN THE WINDS AND SLOWLY IMPROVING
VISIBILITIES. FROM 6Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD EXPECT WINDS
TO CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10KTS WITH ONLY SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ001-013-027>029-041-042.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ002>004-
014>016.
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COZ090>092.
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ080-081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
240 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND TAKING A NEGATIVE TILT AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES. THE STRONG CIRCULATION IS
EVIDENT BASED ON VIS/IR SATELLITE DATA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. RADAR TRENDS SHOW A SMALL BAND OF
SNOWFALL CONTINUING TO BRING LIGHT SNOW FOR SOME PORTIONS OF EASTERN
COLORADO AND EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS...MAINLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...RADAR REFLECTIVITIES APPEAR TO BE TRENDING
DOWNWARD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
IN THE NEAR TERM UP TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE WINTER STORM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND NEW SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE TO LESSEN.
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON COULD REACH UP TO AN
INCH...BUT LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW COULD OCCUR ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER
UP TO 2 INCHES. RAP MODEL THETA LAPSE RATES/NEGATIVE EPV VALUES
INDICATE AN AREA OF MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH SOME FRONTOGENESIS PRESENT ALONG THE SAME
AXIS AS THE CURRENT RADAR TREND WITH THE SNOW BAND POSITIONED NEAR
THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. A SNOW BAND MOVING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80 ALONG HIGHWAY 283 COULD ALSO BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW UP TO AN
INCH FOR NORTON AND HILL CITY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE LOW
CENTER MOVES EAST ENOUGH TO END THE SNOW THREAT.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS IS THE
BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY THREAT. STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OF 16-18 MB HAS BROUGHT STRONG WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AT TIMES...AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES
NOT HAVE THIS GRADIENT LESSENING FOR THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT
MST (1 AM CST) TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES...DESPITE THERE BEING NO
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. UNLESS
ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY...TRAVEL IS NOT ADVISED.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD STABILIZE AFTER MIDNIGHT MST (1 AM
CST) TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY END THE BLOWING SNOW AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY THREAT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION FROM NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN BETWEEN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND THE MIDDLE TEENS. COLD TEMPERATURES IN
COMBINATION WITH WIND GUSTS WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 10 ABOVE
TO 10 BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016
STRONG UPPER LOW TRANSITIONS EAST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LARGE SCALE RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE
WESTERN US RESULTING IN A SHARP N-NW FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN MAY SUPPORT QUICK SHOTS OF
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. OVERALL CHANCES OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THESE PERIODS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH A
PREDOMINANTLY DRY FORECAST. THIS IS DUE TO EITHER DEEPER DRY AIR
MASS BETWEEN CLIPPERS OR LACK OF CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS.
TEMPERATURES ARE PARTICULARLY TRICKY AS THIS PATTERN WOULD NORMALLY
SUPPORT A TREND TOWARDS SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER WITH THE
ONGOING SNOW EVENT AND AT LEAST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA
RECEIVING 10" OR MORE OF SNOW HIGH TEMPERATURES IN PARTICULAR ARE
LIKELY GOING TO BE LOWER THAN MODELS INDICATE. I TRENDED ALL HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN AND UNDERCUT ALL GUIDANCE THROUGH THESE PERIODS.
SNOW WILL ALSO AID IN RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE NIGHT...AND
ASSUMING WINDS REMAIN LIGHT (TO PREVENT LOW LEVEL MIXING) MODELS MAY
HAVE A WARM BIAS ON LOWS.
REGARDING WIND CHILLS WED NIGHT/THU MORNING...THE AIR MASS AND
ORIENTATION OF THE WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT MIGHT ACTUALLY LEAD TO MORE
MIXING WHICH COULD OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF SNOW/CLEARING SKIES AND
RESULTING WIND CHILLS MAY NOT ACTUALLY REACH -15F (ADVISORY). IT IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR -10 TO -20F WIND CHILLS...BUT I THINK THIS
MAY BE A LOCALIZED THREAT. WITH ONGOING HAZARDS THERE ARE NO CURRENT
PLANS FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1011 AM MST TUE FEB 2 2016
A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MESSY CONDITIONS FOR
BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. VLIFR REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES AND IFR/LIFR REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS WITHIN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 6
HOURS.
AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST...CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE AS SNOWFALL STOPS...BUT STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL CAUSE
PERIODIC BLOWING SNOW FOR BOTH TERMINALS.
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
AFTER 6Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ001-013-027>029-041-042.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ002>004-
014>016.
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COZ090>092.
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ080-081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
138 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND TAKING A NEGATIVE TILT AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES. THE STRONG CIRCULATION IS
EVIDENT BASED ON VIS/IR SATELLITE DATA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. RADAR TRENDS SHOW A SMALL BAND OF
SNOWFALL CONTINUING TO BRING LIGHT SNOW FOR SOME PORTIONS OF EASTERN
COLORADO AND EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS...MAINLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...RADAR REFLECTIVITIES APPEAR TO BE TRENDING
DOWNWARD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
IN THE NEAR TERM UP TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE WINTER STORM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND NEW SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE TO LESSEN.
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON COULD REACH UP TO AN
INCH...BUT LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW COULD OCCUR ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER
UP TO 2 INCHES. RAP MODEL THETA LAPSE RATES/NEGATIVE EPV VALUES
INDICATE AN AREA OF MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH SOME FRONTOGENESIS PRESENT ALONG THE SAME
AXIS AS THE CURRENT RADAR TREND WITH THE SNOW BAND POSITIONED NEAR
THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. A SNOW BAND MOVING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80 ALONG HIGHWAY 283 COULD ALSO BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW UP TO AN
INCH FOR NORTON AND HILL CITY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE LOW
CENTER MOVES EAST ENOUGH TO END THE SNOW THREAT.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS IS THE
BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY THREAT. STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OF 16-18 MB HAS BROUGHT STRONG WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AT TIMES...AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES
NOT HAVE THIS GRADIENT LESSENING FOR THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT
MST (1 AM CST) TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES...DESPITE THERE BEING NO
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. UNLESS
ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY...TRAVEL IS NOT ADVISED.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD STABILIZE AFTER MIDNIGHT MST (1 AM
CST) TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY END THE BLOWING SNOW AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY THREAT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION FROM NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN BETWEEN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND THE MIDDLE TEENS. COLD TEMPERATURES IN
COMBINATION WITH WIND GUSTS WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 10 ABOVE
TO 10 BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST TUE FEB 2 2016
FIRST CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD IS THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS
ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM DIGS TO NEAR THE REGION FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA
SHOWS THIS SYSTEM MOVING AND THEN CUTTING OFF WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE AREA. SO THE CURRENT AND LATEST INIT FORECAST OF DRY
CONDITIONS LOOKS GOOD.
TEMPORARY SHORTWAVE RIDGING OCCURS ON SATURDAY. AFTER THAT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD...THE FLOW AMPLIFIES AS A SHARP MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AND A
STRONG SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
THIS IS GOING TO LEAVE A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVES AND A RATHER STRONG UPPER JET NEAR THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MODELS WANT TO PRODUCE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF QPF BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. CAN
SEE THIS HAPPENING WITH THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG
JET. THE INIT DOES NOT INTRODUCE ANY POPS AND AM OKAY WITH THIS AT
THIS TIME SINCE IT IS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THERE IS SOME
MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
COUNTRY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS PERIOD CAREFULLY.
THE BIGGEST PROBLEM WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES. REGION IS CURRENTLY
GETTING BLASTED BY A MAJOR WINTER STORM WHICH IS PRODUCING A LOT OF
SNOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BRING DOWN A LOT OF COLD AIR. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORS...DID LOWER TEMPERATURES SOME BUT ADDITIONAL LOWERING WILL
PROBABLY BE NEEDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1011 AM MST TUE FEB 2 2016
A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MESSY CONDITIONS FOR
BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. VLIFR REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES AND IFR/LIFR REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS WITHIN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 6
HOURS.
AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST...CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE AS SNOWFALL STOPS...BUT STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL CAUSE
PERIODIC BLOWING SNOW FOR BOTH TERMINALS.
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
AFTER 6Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ001-013-027>029-041-042.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ002>004-
014>016.
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COZ090>092.
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ080-081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
415 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW POTENT SHRTWV
LIFTING NEWD INTO THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH BAND OF HEAVY PCPN
IN THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT EXTENDING FM NEBRASKA INTO WI SHIFTING N
INTO THE SRN CWA AS DYNAMIC FORCING/H85-7 FGEN/UPR DVGC IN LEFT EXIT
OF SUPPORTING H3 JET STREAK AND RIGHT ENTRANCE OF ANOTHER JET STREAK
OVER SE CANADA IS FINALLY OVERCOMING DRY AIR SHOWN BTWN H85-7 ON THE
LOCAL 12Z RAOBS. 00Z-12Z 12HR H5 HGT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WERE AS GREAT AS 200M AT DODGE CITY KS...AND THE
ACCOMPANYING STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING HAS CAUSED SOME LTNG ON THE SRN
EDGE OF THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS AS FAR N AS SCENTRAL WI. SOME
LOCATIONS IN WI HAVE SEEN SN FALL AT THE RATE OF 2 INCHES/HR THIS
AFTN. DRY SLOTTING ON THE ACYC SIDE OF THE UPR LO TRACK IS PUSHING
INTO SRN MN/WI. THIS UPR LO APPEARS TO BE TRACKING FARTHER W THAN
EXPECTED.
FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS ON ONGOING HEADLINES ASSOCIATED WITH
APRCHG VIGOROUS SHRTWV AND IMPACT OF DRY SLOTTING ON SN TOTALS/MIX
WITH FZDZ.
LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT...SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD TOWARD THE UPR LKS IS FCST
TO WEAKEN A BIT AS IT REACHES NW WI AT 12Z WED. AREA OF ENHANCED UPR
DVGC/H85-7 FGEN OVER CCB AND UNDER SHARP DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC
AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWV WL BRING A PERIOD OF SOME MDT/HEAVY SN TO
MAINLY THE E 2/3 OF THE CWA THIS EVNG. H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FCST UP
TO 4 G/KG OVER THE SE CWA WL ALLOW ABOUT 6 INCHES OF WET SN TO FALL
OVER THE SE CWA BEFORE DRY SLOTTING ON THE ERN FLANK OF APRCHG H5-7
LO CAUSES THE SN TO DIMINISH AS EARLY AS LATE EVNG-MIDNGT AT
MENOMINEE. ALTHOUGH THE SPECIFIC HUMIDITY IS FCST TO BE LOWER OVER
THE W /ABOUT 2 G/KG/...FCST SN/WATER RATIOS FCST AS HI AS 20-25:1
THIS EVNG AND MORE PROLONGED DEEPER MSTR AWAY FM MID LVL DRY
SLOTTING WL ALLOW SIMILAR OVERNGT SN TOTALS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
FAR W NEAR THE PORCUPINE MTNS...WHERE A MORE UPSLOPE CYC NNE FLOW WL
BE THE RULE OVERNGT AND ADD SOME LK ENHANCEMENT WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR -
10C. SINCE THE KEWEENAW WL BE IMPACTED BY THIS MORE PERSISTENT
DEEPER RH AND THE LATEST WPC SN FCST SHOWS A MAXIMUM OVER THE WRN
CWA WITH SHIFT OF THE TRACK OF THE UPR LO TO THE W...OPTED TO
UPGRADE ADVY FOR THAT AREA TO A WARNING. THE 12Z NAM IS QUITE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DRY SLOTTING...SHOWING SOME MID LVL DRYING
IMPACTING THE AREA FM IRON RIVER TO THE HURON MTNS OVERNGT. ALTHOUGH
THE SHRTWV IS FCST TO WEAKEN A BIT OVERNGT...CURRENT STLT TRENDS
SUPPORT MORE EXTENSIVE MID LVL DRY SLOTTING AND EXPANDING POTENTIAL
MIX WITH FZDZ FARTHER TO THE W TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE SE HALF.
ALTHOUGH THE DISTURBANCE WL BE WEAKENING A BIT...NE H925 WINDS FCST
AS HI AS 35-40KTS WL ALLOW FOR BLSN...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS NEAR
LK SUP.
WED...BULK OF THE LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AREA
OF DEEPER MID LVL MSTR WRAPPING BACK THRU THE CWA UNDER TRACK OF
OPENING SHRTWV LIFTING TO THE NE AND ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC. SO AFTER SOME REDUCED POPS IN THE MRNG/MIX WITH FREEZING
DZ...BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE HI LIKELY RANGE FOR MORE SN WITH DEEPER
MSTR EXPANDING BACK INTO THE DGZ. ALTHOUGH SOME LES WL PERSIST OVER
THE W IN THE AFTN WITH CYC NNW FLOW OF COLDER AIR DROPPING H85 TEMPS
TO NEAR -15C BY 00Z THU...ARRIVAL OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IN THE
WAKE OF PASSING SHRTWV SHOULD RESULT IN DIMINISHING PCPN.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST QUEBEC
WEDNESDAY EVENING WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH AXIS LINGER
ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH AXIS LINGERING OVER THE AREA
WILL KEEP 850MB TEMPS AROUND -14C TO -15C. THE COMBINATION OF DELTA
T VALUES AROUND 17C TO 18C ALONG WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL KEEP AN ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MAINLY FOR NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE U.P. THIS WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
IN INTENSITY OVER THE WEST WHILE THE EAST CONTINUES TO LIGHT TO
MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL DROP FROM 6-7KFT
IN THE EVENING OVER THE WEST TO AROUND 3 TO 4KFT OVERNIGHT...AGAIN
POINTING TOWARD THE DIMINISHING TREND. OVER THE EAST
HALF...INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL STAY AROUND 6-7KFT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A LARGE PORTION OF THE MOIST LAYER WILL BE IN THE
DGZ...WHICH WILL HELP TO SUPPORT HIGHER SNOWFALL RATIOS AROUND 19:1
TO 22:1 ALONG WITH ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES FOR THE
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING AS A WEAK AND VERY BRIEF
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
REDUCTION IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT IT WILL BE VERY BRIEF AS ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL 500MB SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE INCREASED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH ALONG WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING
AROUND -14C TO -15C WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO KICK UP AGAIN.
THIS TIME THE MAIN AREA OF FOCUS WOULD BE MAINLY ALONG THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AS WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY.
INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO JUMP UP TO AROUND 6-8KFT AS THE
WAVE SLIDES THROUGH WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW TOTALS ARE EXPECTED AS THE WAVE IS SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA
QUICKLY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE KEWEENAW AND EASTERN AREAS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR COULD SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL HELP PEG ANY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO WESTERN U.P./KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND POSSIBLY
OVER EASTERN AREAS...MAINLY CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE. MOISTURE IS
PROGGED TO BE FAIRLY SHALLOW THROUGH THE DAY SO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS INVERSION HEIGHTS AND MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN BELOW 5KFT. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR INCREASED
MOISTURE WITH 850MB TEMPS REMAINING AROUND -14C TO -15C. THIS WILL
ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG WITH LIGHT SYSTEM SNOW TO OCCUR ACROSS
THE AREA. RIGHT NOW THE FAVORED LAKE ENHANCEMENT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD
OCCUR FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS...BUT THERE ARE
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE WIND FIELDS. DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A
MAJOR LAKE EFFECT EVENT AT THIS TIME.
SUNDAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED...BOTH THE EC AND GFS ARE SHOWING A
CLIPPER SYSTEM SLIDING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKE THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD. THIS WOULD END UP BRINGING WIDESPREAD SYSTEM SNOW
ACROSS THE U.P. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE THE LATEST GFS/EC
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT...PREVIOUS MODEL RUN COMPARISONS SHOW
THAT THERE HAS BEEN SOME DISAGREEMENTS FROM RUN TO RUN. AT THIS
POINT WILL NOT GET INTO THE SPECIFICS THIS FAR OUT. THE TREND WOULD
BE FOR THE CLIPPER SYSTEM TO SLIDE THROUGH DURING THAT TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
VFR TO MVFR CIGS THIS AFTN AT THE TAF SITES WL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE 21Z-24Z TIME PERIOD AS A BAND OF SN MOVES
INTO UPR MI IN ADVANCE OF A VIGOROUS LO PRES MOVING NE TOWARD THE
GREAT LKS. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE
NE...CREATING BLSN AT TIMES. THE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WL THEN PREVAIL
THRU THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE
COULD BE SOME FZDZ AT SAW FOR A TIME LATE TNGT INTO WED WITH
SOMEWHAT HIER VSBYS...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE IFR/LIFR RANGE
EVEN IF THIS OCCURS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS LOW PRES TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...EVENTUALLY CROSSING FAR NORTHERN LOWER MI LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND ADJACENT WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...SO GALE WARNING REMAINS
OVER THAT AREA FOR LATE EVENING THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. AFTER
A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY...THE NEXT PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS
WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH WINDS OF 20-30KT...STRONGEST
OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
WIND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ001>007-009-084-085.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ013-014.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ010>012.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
359 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW POTENT SHRTWV
LIFTING NEWD INTO THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH BAND OF HEAVY PCPN
IN THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT EXTENDING FM NEBRASKA INTO WI SHIFTING N
INTO THE SRN CWA AS DYNAMIC FORCING/H85-7 FGEN/UPR DVGC IN LEFT EXIT
OF SUPPORTING H3 JET STREAK AND RIGHT ENTRANCE OF ANOTHER JET STREAK
OVER SE CANADA IS FINALLY OVERCOMING DRY AIR SHOWN BTWN H85-7 ON THE
LOCAL 12Z RAOBS. 00Z-12Z 12HR H5 HGT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WERE AS GREAT AS 200M AT DODGE CITY KS...AND THE
ACCOMPANYING STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING HAS CAUSED SOME LTNG ON THE SRN
EDGE OF THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS AS FAR N AS SCENTRAL WI. SOME
LOCATIONS IN WI HAVE SEEN SN FALL AT THE RATE OF 2 INCHES/HR THIS
AFTN. DRY SLOTTING ON THE ACYC SIDE OF THE UPR LO TRACK IS PUSHING
INTO SRN MN/WI. THIS UPR LO APPEARS TO BE TRACKING FARTHER W THAN
EXPECTED.
FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS ON ONGOING HEADLINES ASSOCIATED WITH
APRCHG VIGOROUS SHRTWV AND IMPACT OF DRY SLOTTING ON SN TOTALS/MIX
WITH FZDZ.
LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT...SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD TOWARD THE UPR LKS IS FCST
TO WEAKEN A BIT AS IT REACHES NW WI AT 12Z WED. AREA OF ENHANCED UPR
DVGC/H85-7 FGEN OVER CCB AND UNDER SHARP DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC
AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWV WL BRING A PERIOD OF SOME MDT/HEAVY SN TO
MAINLY THE E 2/3 OF THE CWA THIS EVNG. H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FCST UP
TO 4 G/KG OVER THE SE CWA WL ALLOW ABOUT 6 INCHES OF WET SN TO FALL
OVER THE SE CWA BEFORE DRY SLOTTING ON THE ERN FLANK OF APRCHG H5-7
LO CAUSES THE SN TO DIMINISH AS EARLY AS LATE EVNG-MIDNGT AT
MENOMINEE. ALTHOUGH THE SPECIFIC HUMIDITY IS FCST TO BE LOWER OVER
THE W /ABOUT 2 G/KG/...FCST SN/WATER RATIOS FCST AS HI AS 20-25:1
THIS EVNG AND MORE PROLONGED DEEPER MSTR AWAY FM MID LVL DRY
SLOTTING WL ALLOW SIMILAR OVERNGT SN TOTALS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
FAR W NEAR THE PORCUPINE MTNS...WHERE A MORE UPSLOPE CYC NNE FLOW WL
BE THE RULE OVERNGT AND ADD SOME LK ENHANCEMENT WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR -
10C. SINCE THE KEWEENAW WL BE IMPACTED BY THIS MORE PERSISTENT
DEEPER RH AND THE LATEST WPC SN FCST SHOWS A MAXIMUM OVER THE WRN
CWA WITH SHIFT OF THE TRACK OF THE UPR LO TO THE W...OPTED TO
UPGRADE ADVY FOR THAT AREA TO A WARNING. THE 12Z NAM IS QUITE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DRY SLOTTING...SHOWING SOME MID LVL DRYING
IMPACTING THE AREA FM IRON RIVER TO THE HURON MTNS OVERNGT. ALTHOUGH
THE SHRTWV IS FCST TO WEAKEN A BIT OVERNGT...CURRENT STLT TRENDS
SUPPORT MORE EXTENSIVE MID LVL DRY SLOTTING AND EXPANDING POTENTIAL
MIX WITH FZDZ FARTHER TO THE W TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE SE HALF.
ALTHOUGH THE DISTURBANCE WL BE WEAKENING A BIT...NE H925 WINDS FCST
AS HI AS 35-40KTS WL ALLOW FOR BLSN...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS NEAR
LK SUP.
WED...BULK OF THE LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AREA
OF DEEPER MID LVL MSTR WRAPPING BACK THRU THE CWA UNDER TRACK OF
OPENING SHRTWV LIFTING TO THE NE AND ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC. SO AFTER SOME REDUCED POPS IN THE MRNG/MIX WITH FREEZING
DZ...BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE HI LIKELY RANGE FOR MORE SN WITH DEEPER
MSTR EXPANDING BACK INTO THE DGZ. ALTHOUGH SOME LES WL PERSIST OVER
THE W IN THE AFTN WITH CYC NNW FLOW OF COLDER AIR DROPPING H85 TEMPS
TO NEAR -15C BY 00Z THU...ARRIVAL OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IN THE
WAKE OF PASSING SHRTWV SHOULD RESULT IN DIMINISHING PCPN.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
FOCUS CERTAINLY ON THE FIRST 12-18 HOURS OF THE FORECAST STARTING
12Z WED AS A WINTER STORM IS EXITING THE REGION.
BY 12Z WED MODELS SHOW A STRONG UPPER WAVE OVER THE WRN CWA AND S
INTO IA. AT THE SFC...AN ELONGATED LOW WILL STRETCH FROM THE IL/WI
BORDER TO NRN LOWER MI. SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON THE TRACK
OF THE MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE WED MORNING/AFTERNOON...BUT MOST MODELS
FAVOR KEEPING THE BEST SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO THE SE
OF THE AREA...THE 00Z/01 NAM BEING THE EXCEPTION WITH BRINGING THAT
PRECIP OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN CWA. EVEN IF THE BEST PRECIP STAYS
SE...MOST OF UPPER MI WILL BE SEEING SNOW WED MORNING...BUT THE BEST
AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER THE NCENTRAL AND FAR W...WHERE CYCLONIC
CURVATURE TO LOW LEVEL WINDS FAVORS THESE AREAS FOR LAKE/UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT (NE-NNE FLOW). WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TO THE N BY 18Z AS
850MB TEMPS DROP TO -10C TO -12C. SHOULD SEE SOME BOOST TO LAKE
ENHANCED AREAS BETWEEN 12Z AND 21Z AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES SE OF THE
AREA. BY 00Z THU...WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NW-NNW WITH 850MB TEMPS
DOWN TO -12C TO -15C...FAVORING A TRANSITION IN SNOWBELTS THROUGH THE
DAY. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD DIMINISH WED EVENING THROUGH WED NIGHT AS A
SFC RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE W. GENERALLY HAVE AN ADDITIONAL 2-4
INCHES NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR BETWEEN 12Z WED AND 06Z THU...WITH AROUND 5
INCHES OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS.
ANOTHER CRITICAL ELEMENT WILL BE WINDS...WHICH WILL BE GUSTING TO 35
MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND 20-25 MPH INLAND. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE NE-NNE TO START THE DAY...GRADUALLY BACKING TO THE NW BY THE END
OF THE DAY. HARDEST HIT AREAS FOR BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE
LAKESHORE AREAS OF THE KEWEENAW AND NCENTRAL UPPER MI...ESPECIALLY
M-28 BETWEEN MARQUETTE AND MUNISING.
FOR THU THROUGH MON...LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE PATTERN STICKS AROUND
WITH SOME WEAK CLIPPERS AND SURGES OF COLDER AIR. NOTHING STICKS OUT
AS PARTICULARLY SIGNIFICANT AT THIS POINT...SO WILL RUN WITH
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE AND FOCUS ON SHORTER TERM SYSTEM
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
VFR TO MVFR CIGS THIS AFTN AT THE TAF SITES WL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE 21Z-24Z TIME PERIOD AS A BAND OF SN MOVES
INTO UPR MI IN ADVANCE OF A VIGOROUS LO PRES MOVING NE TOWARD THE
GREAT LKS. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE
NE...CREATING BLSN AT TIMES. THE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WL THEN PREVAIL
THRU THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE
COULD BE SOME FZDZ AT SAW FOR A TIME LATE TNGT INTO WED WITH
SOMEWHAT HIER VSBYS...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE IFR/LIFR RANGE
EVEN IF THIS OCCURS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
INITIAL LIGHT WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE THIS
AFTN/EVENING AS LOW PRES TRACKS NE FROM THE SRN PLAINS...EVENTUALLY
CROSSING FAR NRN LWR MI LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING. FREQUENT GALE
FORCE GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NCNTL AND ADJACENT WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR...SO GALE WARNING REMAINS UP IN THAT AREA FOR LATE EVENING
THRU MID MORNING WED. AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS THU...THE NEXT
PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS WILL ARRIVE FRI/SAT WITH WINDS OF
20-30KT...STRONGEST OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ001>007-009-084-085.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ013-014.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ010-011.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ012.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1229 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
BASED ON EXPECTED SN TOTALS APRCHG 10 INCHES OVER GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON
COUNTIES ON CYC SIDE OF UPR LO TRACK...WHICH APPEARS TO BE TRENDING
FARTHER TO THE W...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LK ENHANCEMENT WITH
CYC UPSLOPE NLY FLOW LATE TNGT/WED...OPTED TO UPGRADE WINTER WX ADVY
TO WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THOSE 2 COUNTIES AND EXTEND THE HEADLINE
TO 21Z WED...WHEN DEEPER MSTR IS FCST TO EXIT THE WRN CWA. THESE NEW
HEADLINES MATCH WELL WITH THOSE ISSUED BY SURROUNDING OFFICES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
MOVING OUT OVER KS...WHILE AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS ORGANIZING OVER
SCNTRL KS. 00Z RAOBS SHOWED A STRONG SRLY FLOW DEVELOPING OFF THE
WRN GULF OF MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO THE HEIGHT FALLS PUSHING OUT OVER
THE SRN PLAINS...AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PCPN INCREASING OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS WITH SNOW SPREADING OUT ACROSS NEBRASKA/IA.
CONSENSUS OF THE ARRAY OF 00Z MODEL RUNS IS FOR SFC LOW PRES TO
TRACK NE ACROSS FAR NRN LWR MI WHICH IS ESSENTIALLY RIGHT ALONG THE
MULTI DAY MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS UTILIZED FOR THE FCST OF THIS STORM
SYSTEM DURING THE LATTER PART OF LAST WEEK. WHILE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CURRENTLY DEPICTS AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING FEATURE...MODELS
HAVE BEEN AND CONTINUE TO POINT TO A FAST MOVING SYSTEM WITH THE
LACK OF AN ORGANIZED MID LEVEL LOW AS IT MOVES THRU THE UPPER LAKES.
OBVIOUSLY...FAST MOVEMENT LIMITS DURATION OF MDT/HVY SNOW. IN
ADDITION...THE LACK OF AN ORGANIZED MID LEVEL CENTER MEANS THIS
SYSTEM WON`T HAVE A SIGNIFICANT/ORGANIZED DEFORMATION PCPN SHIELD NW
OF THE LOW TRACK THAT WOULD LEAD TO PROLONGED MDT/HVY SNOW. AS A
RESULT...THIS WILL BASICALLY BE AN AVG KIND OF WINTER STORM FOR
UPPER MI WITH MUCH OF THE AREA REACHING WARNING CRITERIA...BUT
CERTAINLY NOT A BLOCKBUSTER STORM. HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS SHOULD BE IN
NCNTRL UPPER MI W OF MARQUETTE WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT/UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT OCCURS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
A NUMBER OF FACTORS INDICATE SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE FOR ABOUT A 2 TO 4HR PERIOD LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING.
COUPLING OF 2 UPPER JET STREAKS...LEFT EXIT OF ONE 150+KT JET
STREAKING TOWARD LWR MI AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A SECOND 140+KT
JET ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC...WILL LEAD TO STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE. DOWN TOWARD THE LOWER LEVELS...THERE IS A STRONG FGEN
RESPONSE IN ADDITION TO STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS NOTED ON 290K
SFC (ROUGHLY 700-750MB). ALONG WITH RATHER IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER
FORCING PER QVECTORS...ALL THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A ROUGHLY A 2-4HR
PERIOD OF MDT TO HVY SNOW LIFTING N ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATE THIS
AFTN AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY CNTRL AND E. HOWEVER...SINCE STRONGER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEGINS TO BE SHUNTED E WITH TIME AS SHORTWAVE
WEAKENS...SNOWFALL RATES WHICH WILL BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE OVER THE
PLAINS STATES WILL VERY LIKELY BE FALLING OFF AS THE SNOW SHIELD
LIFTS INTO UPPER MI. 00Z MODEL RUNS SUGGEST MID LEVEL DRYING WILL
SURGE INTO THE SCNTRL/ERN FCST AREA LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT BEHIND
THE MDT/HVY SNOW BAND. AS A RESULT...HAVE INTRODUCED -FZDZ IN THAT
AREA. OVERALL...MODELS SUGGEST SOMEWHAT LOWER SNOW TO WATER
RATIOS...AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME -FZDZ SCNTRL AND E...SNOW
TOTALS HAVE BEEN LOWERED A LITTLE OVER THE SE AND ERN FCST AREA.
SREF TRENDS HAVE ALSO SHOWN INCREASING SPREAD AND OVERALL LOWER SNOW
TOTALS OVER THE ERN FCST AREA...WITH THE MEAN RIGHT NEAR THE SUB 20
TO 1 SNOW TO WATER RATIO WARNING CRITERIA THRESHOLD OF 6IN/12HR.
MEANWHILE...THE CNTRL AND WRN FCST AREA SHOW A BETTER POTENTIAL OF
REACHING WARNING CRITERIA. GIVEN THE REGIONAL/GLOBAL CANADIAN MODELS
INSISTENCE ON A LOWER QPF EVENT OVERALL AND LATEST RAP MODEL RUN
INDICATING HEAVIER QPF LATE AFTN/EVENING PASSING TO THE E OF THE WRN
FCST AREA...WILL HOLD OFF ON CONVERTING THE WRN ADVY AREA TO A
WARNING. THAT SAID...LAKE ENHANCEMENT/UPSLOPE COMPONENT FOR WRN
GOGEBIC AND WRN ONTONAGON COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING
PUTS THAT AREA AT GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR REACHING WARNING CRITERIA.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR UPCOMING MODEL RUNS FOR A CONSISTENT SIGNAL TO
SEE IF AN UPGRADE TO WARNING WILL BE NEEDED.
IN THE END...EXPECT THE GREATEST SNOW TOTALS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
FROM AROUND NEGAUNEE/ISHPEMING INTO THE HURON MOUNTAINS WHERE
UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCEMENT COMPONENT WILL ADD AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES
TO SYNOPTIC SNOW. 850MB TEMPS ARE JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT...SO WOULD CERTAINLY LIKE TO SEE LOWER 850MB TEMPS TO
HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN BUMPING UP TOTALS SIGNIFICANTLY. ALL HIGH
RES GUIDANCE PEG THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH A NICE ENHANCEMENT OF
QPF...BUT HAVE TAKEN A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO BUMPING UP TOTALS.
FOR NOW...OFFICIAL FCST WILL SHOW TOTALS OF 12-14 INCHES FROM
NEGAUNEE/ISHPEMING THRU THE HURON MTNS.
FINALLY...AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES...THERE MAY NOT BE
MUCH BLSN SINCE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING. BLSN WILL BE MOST SIGNIFICANT
CLOSE TO THE GREAT LAKES. SYNOPTIC SETUP IS ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE FOR
STRONGER WINDS AROUND MENOMINEE THIS EVENING AS HEATHLY PRES FALLS
OF 5-8MB/3HR APPROACH FROM THE SW...SO THERE MAY BE 2-3HRS OF
CONSIDERABLE BLSN IN THAT AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
FOCUS CERTAINLY ON THE FIRST 12-18 HOURS OF THE FORECAST STARTING
12Z WED AS A WINTER STORM IS EXITING THE REGION.
BY 12Z WED MODELS SHOW A STRONG UPPER WAVE OVER THE WRN CWA AND S
INTO IA. AT THE SFC...AN ELONGATED LOW WILL STRETCH FROM THE IL/WI
BORDER TO NRN LOWER MI. SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON THE TRACK
OF THE MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE WED MORNING/AFTERNOON...BUT MOST MODELS
FAVOR KEEPING THE BEST SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO THE SE
OF THE AREA...THE 00Z/01 NAM BEING THE EXCEPTION WITH BRINGING THAT
PRECIP OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN CWA. EVEN IF THE BEST PRECIP STAYS
SE...MOST OF UPPER MI WILL BE SEEING SNOW WED MORNING...BUT THE BEST
AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER THE NCENTRAL AND FAR W...WHERE CYCLONIC
CURVATURE TO LOW LEVEL WINDS FAVORS THESE AREAS FOR LAKE/UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT (NE-NNE FLOW). WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TO THE N BY 18Z AS
850MB TEMPS DROP TO -10C TO -12C. SHOULD SEE SOME BOOST TO LAKE
ENHANCED AREAS BETWEEN 12Z AND 21Z AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES SE OF THE
AREA. BY 00Z THU...WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NW-NNW WITH 850MB TEMPS
DOWN TO -12C TO -15C...FAVORING A TRANSITION IN SNOWBELTS THROUGH THE
DAY. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD DIMINISH WED EVENING THROUGH WED NIGHT AS A
SFC RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE W. GENERALLY HAVE AN ADDITIONAL 2-4
INCHES NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR BETWEEN 12Z WED AND 06Z THU...WITH AROUND 5
INCHES OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS.
ANOTHER CRITICAL ELEMENT WILL BE WINDS...WHICH WILL BE GUSTING TO 35
MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND 20-25 MPH INLAND. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE NE-NNE TO START THE DAY...GRADUALLY BACKING TO THE NW BY THE END
OF THE DAY. HARDEST HIT AREAS FOR BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE
LAKESHORE AREAS OF THE KEWEENAW AND NCENTRAL UPPER MI...ESPECIALLY
M-28 BETWEEN MARQUETTE AND MUNISING.
FOR THU THROUGH MON...LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE PATTERN STICKS AROUND
WITH SOME WEAK CLIPPERS AND SURGES OF COLDER AIR. NOTHING STICKS OUT
AS PARTICULARLY SIGNIFICANT AT THIS POINT...SO WILL RUN WITH
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE AND FOCUS ON SHORTER TERM SYSTEM
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
VFR TO MVFR CIGS THIS AFTN AT THE TAF SITES WL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE 21Z-24Z TIME PERIOD AS A BAND OF SN MOVES
INTO UPR MI IN ADVANCE OF A VIGOROUS LO PRES MOVING NE TOWARD THE
GREAT LKS. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE
NE...CREATING BLSN AT TIMES. THE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WL THEN PREVAIL
THRU THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE
COULD BE SOME FZDZ AT SAW FOR A TIME LATE TNGT INTO WED WITH
SOMEWHAT HIER VSBYS...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE IFR/LIFR RANGE
EVEN IF THIS OCCURS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016
INITIAL LIGHT WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE THIS
AFTN/EVENING AS LOW PRES TRACKS NE FROM THE SRN PLAINS...EVENTUALLY
CROSSING FAR NRN LWR MI LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING. FREQUENT GALE
FORCE GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NCNTL AND ADJACENT WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR...SO GALE WARNING REMAINS UP IN THAT AREA FOR LATE EVENING
THRU MID MORNING WED. AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS THU...THE NEXT
PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS WILL ARRIVE FRI/SAT WITH WINDS OF
20-30KT...STRONGEST OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON TO
4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ002-004>007-009-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ001-003-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ013-014.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ010-011.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ012.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1158 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1015 AM CST Tue Feb 2 2016
Thin line of showers and isolated thunderstorms will be moving
through the southern part of the CWA over the next 2-3 hours ahead
of the occluded front. Latest runs of the RAP back up this
thinking in showing that low level moisture convergence will sweep
across the area from west to east late this morning and early this
afternoon. Otherwise...rest of the forecast looks on track.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 235 AM CST Tue Feb 2 2016
Showers and a few thunderstorms were moving north-northeastward
through western MO, just west of our forecast area early this
morning. This activity was in the vicinity of a strong southerly
low level jet and ahead of an upper level low and associated
surface low over southwest KS. The upper level low will move
northeastward into southeast Nebraska and western Iowa by 00z
Wednesday while the surface low moves into northwest MO. Showers
and scattered thunderstorms will sweep eastward through our
forecast area today as depicted by the latest HRRR run. The
models were depicting very strong 850 mb warm air advection,
theta-e advection, and moisture convergence across much of our
area this morning into the afternoon on the nose of the strong
southerly low level jet as it translates eastward through our
region. Best potential for any severe storms will be across parts
of southeast MO and southwest IL this afternoon where the best
instability will be. The primary threat will be damaging winds.
The precipitation should shut off quickly this afternoon over
central MO as the dry slot moves northeastward into our area with
partial clearing. Strong and gusty surface winds can be expected
this morning into the afternoon, close to wind advisory criteria
due to the relatively tight surface pressure gradient and momentum
transfer to the surface from the strong low level jet. Despite the
cloud cover and precipitation, highs will be well above normal
today and warmer than yesterday.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 235 AM CST Tue Feb 2 2016
The precipitation should shift east of our forecast area this
evening with colder air filtering eastward into our area south and
southwest of the surface and upper level low. Wrap-around type
low level cloudiness will advect southeastward into our area
tonight with light snow or flurries possible, mainly across
northeast MO late tonight. Little if any accumulation is expected.
Much colder temperatures can be expected late tonight and
Wednesday with highs on Wednesday close to seasonal normals for
early February. Low level cloudiness will keep highs down on
Wednesday and there may be a few flurries. Winds will also be
strong and gusty with a tight surface pressure gradient between
the surface low moving northeastward through the Great Lakes
region and the surface ridge building eastward into our area from
the Plains. Tranquil and dry weather can be expected for the later
portion of the work week with temperatures close to seasonal
normals, then a little warmer for the weekend. A deepening upper
level trough over the northern Plains will send a cold front
southeastward through our area Sunday night. Both the GFS and
ECMWF models depict a cold pattern for the early portion of the
next work week with a deep upper level trough extending from the
Great Lakes into our area, along with persistent northwesterly
surface winds, and cold 850 mb temperatures.
GKS
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM CST Tue Feb 2 2016
A warm front has moved north to near the St. Louis area airports
with IFR conditions in fog and ceilings reported at the terminals.
Farther north at KUIN, similar conditions are reported. A thin
line of showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently moving
through St. Louis and will move out of these terminals in the next
hour or two. A cold front over western Missouri will continue to
move east and will bring VFR conditions to all of the terminals by
late afternoon. VFR conditions are expected to continue into the
overnight before low clouds move in from the northwest at KUIN and
KCOU around 09Z and the St. Louis metro TAF sites on Wednesday
morning. Some flurries are possible with these MVFR ceilings.
Specifics for KSTL: Expect the current LIFR conditions with rain
to improve in the next few hours as a cold front moves through the
terminal from the west. Then VFR conditions area expected from
22Z into late Wednesday morning before additional MVFR clouds move
into the area from the northwest.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1015 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1015 AM CST Tue Feb 2 2016
Thin line of showers and isolated thunderstorms will be moving
through the southern part of the CWA over the next 2-3 hours ahead
of the occluded front. Latest runs of the RAP back up this
thinking in showing that low level moisture convergence will sweep
across the area from west to east late this morning and early this
afternoon. Otherwise...rest of the forecast looks on track.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 235 AM CST Tue Feb 2 2016
Showers and a few thunderstorms were moving north-northeastward
through western MO, just west of our forecast area early this
morning. This activity was in the vicinity of a strong southerly
low level jet and ahead of an upper level low and associated
surface low over southwest KS. The upper level low will move
northeastward into southeast Nebraska and western Iowa by 00z
Wednesday while the surface low moves into northwest MO. Showers
and scattered thunderstorms will sweep eastward through our
forecast area today as depicted by the latest HRRR run. The
models were depicting very strong 850 mb warm air advection,
theta-e advecton, and moisture convergence across much of our area
this morning into the afternoon on the nose of the strong
southerly low level jet as it translates eastward through our
region. Best potential for any severe storms will be across parts
of southeast MO and southwest IL this afternoon where the best
instability will be. The primary threat will be damaging winds.
The precipitation should shut off quickly this afternoon over
central MO as the dry slot moves northeastward into our area with
partial clearing. Strong and gusty surface winds can be expected
this morning into the afternoon, close to wind advisory criteria
due to the relatively tight surface pressure gradient and momentum
transfer to the surface from the strong low level jet. Despite the
cloud cover and precipitation, highs will be well above normal
today and warmer than yesterday.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 235 AM CST Tue Feb 2 2016
The precipitation should shift east of our forecast area this
evening with colder air filtering eastward into our area south and
southwest of the surface and upper level low. Wrap-around type
low level cloudiness will advect southeastward into our area
tonight with light snow or flurries possible, mainly across
northeast MO late tonight. Little if any accumulation is expected.
Much colder temperatures can be expected late tonight and
Wednesday with highs on Wednesday close to seasonal normals for
early February. Low level cloudiness will keep highs down on
Wednesday and there may be a few flurries. Winds will also be
strong and gusty with a tight surface pressure gradient between
the surface low moving northeastward through the Great Lakes
region and the surface ridge building eastward into our area from
the Plains. Tranquil and dry weather can be expected for the later
portion of the work week with temperatures close to seasonal
normals, then a little warmer for the weekend. A deepening upper
level trough over the northern Plains will send a cold front
southeastward through our area Sunday night. Both the GFS and
ECMWF models depict a cold pattern for the early portion of the
next work week with a deep upper level trough extending from the
Great Lakes into our area, along with persistent northwesterly
surface winds, and cold 850 mb temperatures.
GKS
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 548 AM CST Tue Feb 2 2016
Primary concern this morning is low level wind shear. AMDAR
sounding out of KSTL is confirming guidance forecasts of southeast
flow in excess of 40kts within 2000 ft of the surface this
morning. LLWS conditions should persist through much of the
morning. Second concern is MVFR ceilings spreading north out of
southern Missouri. These low ceilings should overspread the entire
area this morning...eventually falling to IFR as the day
progresses and precipitation increases in areal coverage. Will
also have to deal with scattered thunderstorms and the possibility
of wind gusts in excess of 50kts primarily over eastern Missouri
and Illinois today. A dry slot will punch into the area this
afternoon, switching the wind to the south-southwest and the low
ceilings will quickly erode leaving VFR flight conditions over the
area for the evening. Low clouds will wrap around the storm system
which is causing all of this weather and will overspread the area
from the northwest late tonight.
Specifics for KSTL:
AMDAR sounding from KSTL is confirming wind in excess of 40kts
within 2000 ft of the ground this morning. Have therefore
continued mention of LLWS in the TAF. Really only dropped the LLWS
later this morning when TS is started since TS implies wind shear.
The timing on ceilings below 2000 ft is not certain...think model
guidance is a little fast which is why I held off until 15Z...tho
1500 ft cigs are lurking over KFAM and KVIH. At any rate, ceiling
should drop over the next 2-4 hours and showers with a few
thunderstorms should overspread the terminal. Should see ceilings
improve during the late afternoon as the dry slot moves through.
Expect VFR flight conditions to prevail through the evening and
probably most of the night until low clouds move in early
Wednesday morning.
Carney
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PENDLETON OR
909 AM PST TUE FEB 2 2016
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
.UPDATE...THE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS ON THE FORECAST AREA...THE MOST
NOTICEABLE BEING SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THERE IS A CHANCE
OF SOME MORNING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OREGON CASCADES IN
DESCHUTES COUNTY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE CAMERAS ARE SHOWING
ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL KEEPS
ANY PRECIPITATION WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THAT SAID...IT
SHOULD BE A FAIRLY NICE DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...ALTHOUGH STILL COLD
IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE SNOW COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
20S AND 30S. IN AND AROUND THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN...TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. COBB
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE REGION BUT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE MVFR. KRDM AND KBDN
COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW BY 03/16Z. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10
KTS. EARLE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 153 AM PST TUE FEB 2 2016/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE UNSETTLED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE INTO AN UPPER RIDGE OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST AND DOWN
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME SHEARED
APART BY THE RIDGE AS IT INTERACTS WITH IT. AS SUCH PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE CONFINED TO JUST THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES AND WILL BE VERY LIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
ACROSS THE CWA. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH STRONGER AND WETTER AND
WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A GREATER AMOUNT OF LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW. SNOW LEVELS WILL RUN ABOUT 2000-4000 FEET AND THERE
WILL BE SOME ACCUMULATION. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON. SNOW AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST SHY OF THE 24 HOUR SNOW AMOUNT CRITERIA FOR
THAT AREA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME WILL
NOT ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES.
THIS DOES NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY BY THE DAY SHIFT TODAY WHEN NEW
MODEL DATA ARRIVES. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING
WINDS WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD. THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR
WIND HIGHLIGHTS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA FOR THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS WILL NOT BE MET. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THE NEED
FOR A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS AND THE GRANDE
RONDE VALLEY. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AND LACK OF
CONFIDENCE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WIND ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. AN UPPER
RIDGE WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE CWA
ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN A DRYING TREND. THERE WILL BE A WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. 88
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A TEMPORARY RIDGE WILL
BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS. A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW. IT WILL BE BREEZY SATURDAY IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. A VERY PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN
BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA BEGINNING SUNDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS. WE ARE NOT QUITE OUT OF CLIMATOLOGICAL FOG SEASON YET SO
INCLUDED SOME PATCHY FOG FOR THE COLUMBIA BASIN MAINLY AT NIGHT
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO KEPT SOME CLOUDS AROUND DURING THE
DAYTIME ALONG WITH COOLER MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 40S. 78
AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. COULD BE A LITTLE MVFR/IFR IN FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING AT KDLS AND KPSC. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS
FROM 5-12 K FEET THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL CARRY A VCSH
GROUP AT KBDN FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING AS A WEATHER SYSTEM PASSES
JUST TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT. 78
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 43 27 44 34 / 0 10 40 70
ALW 45 28 43 34 / 0 10 30 70
PSC 45 26 41 32 / 0 10 40 60
YKM 43 26 37 28 / 0 10 50 60
HRI 46 28 41 34 / 0 10 40 60
ELN 38 23 34 26 / 0 10 60 60
RDM 42 25 41 30 / 10 10 60 60
LGD 38 22 36 30 / 10 10 30 70
GCD 36 17 36 27 / 10 10 40 70
DLS 47 31 42 35 / 10 10 70 70
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
82/81/81
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
817 AM PST TUE FEB 2 2016
.UPDATE...THE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS ON THE FORECAST AREA...THE MOST
NOTICEABLE BEING SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THERE IS A CHANCE
OF SOME MORNING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OREGON CASCADES IN
DESCHUTES COUNTY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE CAMERAS ARE SHOWING
ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL KEEPS
ANY PRECIPITATION WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THAT SAID...IT
SHOULD BE A FAIRLY NICE DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...ALTHOUGH STILL COLD
IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE SNOW COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
20S AND 30S. IN AND AROUND THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN...TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. COBB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 153 AM PST TUE FEB 2 2016/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE UNSETTLED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE INTO AN UPPER RIDGE OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST AND DOWN
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME SHEARED
APART BY THE RIDGE AS IT INTERACTS WITH IT. AS SUCH PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE CONFINED TO JUST THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES AND WILL BE VERY LIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
ACROSS THE CWA. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH STRONGER AND WETTER AND
WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A GREATER AMOUNT OF LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW. SNOW LEVELS WILL RUN ABOUT 2000-4000 FEET AND THERE
WILL BE SOME ACCUMULATION. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON. SNOW AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST SHY OF THE 24 HOUR SNOW AMOUNT CRITERIA FOR
THAT AREA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME WILL
NOT ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES.
THIS DOES NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY BY THE DAY SHIFT TODAY WHEN NEW
MODEL DATA ARRIVES. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING
WINDS WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD. THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR
WIND HIGHLIGHTS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA FOR THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS WILL NOT BE MET. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THE NEED
FOR A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS AND THE GRANDE
RONDE VALLEY. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AND LACK OF
CONFIDENCE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WIND ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. AN UPPER
RIDGE WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE CWA
ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN A DRYING TREND. THERE WILL BE A WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. 88
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A TEMPORARY RIDGE WILL
BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS. A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW. IT WILL BE BREEZY SATURDAY IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. A VERY PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN
BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA BEGINNING SUNDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS. WE ARE NOT QUITE OUT OF CLIMATOLOGICAL FOG SEASON YET SO
INCLUDED SOME PATCHY FOG FOR THE COLUMBIA BASIN MAINLY AT NIGHT
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO KEPT SOME CLOUDS AROUND DURING THE
DAYTIME ALONG WITH COOLER MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 40S. 78
AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. COULD BE A LITTLE MVFR/IFR IN FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING AT KDLS AND KPSC. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS
FROM 5-12 K FEET THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL CARRY A VCSH
GROUP AT KBDN FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING AS A WEATHER SYSTEM PASSES
JUST TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT. 78
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 43 27 44 34 / 0 10 40 70
ALW 45 28 43 34 / 0 10 30 70
PSC 45 26 41 32 / 0 10 40 60
YKM 43 26 37 28 / 0 10 50 60
HRI 46 28 41 34 / 0 10 40 60
ELN 38 23 34 26 / 0 10 60 60
RDM 42 25 41 30 / 10 10 60 60
LGD 38 22 36 30 / 10 10 30 70
GCD 36 17 36 27 / 10 10 40 70
DLS 47 31 42 35 / 10 10 70 70
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
82/81/81