Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/31/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
819 PM MST SAT JAN 30 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 757 PM MST SAT JAN 30 2016
BAND OF SNOW IS MOVING ACROSS NERN CO IN ASSOCIATION WITH FAVORED
LEFT FNT RGN OF UPPER LVL JET. BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR KEEP MAIN
ACTIVITY FM DENVER TO AKRON NORTHWARD THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DECREASING AFTER 09Z. A FEW AREAS COULD
RECEIVE ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW. CURRENTLY THE HRRR AND RAP ARE
FOCUSING THIS MAINLY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WELD COUNTY INTO FAR
ERN LARIMER...HOWEVER RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS MAY END BEING
FURTHER SOUTH. AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST SAT JAN 30 2016
SNOW CONTINUES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH WARMER
TEMPERATURES HAVE PROHIBITED MUCH ACCUMULATION SO FAR AND ROADS
VIA WEBCAMS LOOK MAINLY WET. THIS WILL BE CHANGING SOON AS THE JET
MAX APPROACHES AND A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL HELP INCREASE SNOWFALL RATES AND COOL TEMPERATURES. AN
EAST-WEST JET INDUCED SNOWBAND IS STILL PROGGED BY ALMOST ALL
MODELS TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. THIS BAND
WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR.
THIS WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS IN HEAVY SNOW AND
NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS WITH BLOWING SNOW. EXPECT ANOTHER 4 TO 8
INCHES TO FALL OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE I70 CORRIDOR.
OVER THE PLAINS...THE COLD FRONT AS ALREADY PUSHED THROUGH WITH
COOLING TEMPERATURES. A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE CO/WY BORDER WILL BE
RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW. THE AFOREMENTIONED JET INDUCED SNOWBAND IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING...ABLE TO
PRODUCE ABOUT AN INCH PER HOUR OR POSSIBLY MORE SNOWFALL RATES.
WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY WILL LIKELY MELT THE INITIAL
SNOW BUT SHOULD QUICKLY TURN TO SLUSH AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO
FILTER IN BEFORE SNOW ACCUMULATES. OVERALL...LOOK FOR 1 TO 2
INCHES FROM THE SNOWBAND WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES
POSSIBLE IF THE BAND STRENGTHENS MORE OR LINGERS OVER A CERTAIN
AREA. ONCE THE SNOWBAND PUSHES SOUTH AND DISSIPATES...EXPECT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
SNOW WILL HAVE DECREASED OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY WITH
ONLY AN INCH OR SO ACCUMULATION...WHILE LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE I70 CORRIDOR WITH ANOTHER 2 TO 4
INCHES. HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE OVER WY AND NE WILL KEEP LIGHT
UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW MAINLY OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS.
ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT...MAINLY BELOW AN INCH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO UPPER 30S...THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES OUT OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST SAT JAN 30 2016
...LONG DURATION WINTER STORM WITH HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
REGION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY WELL OUT IN THE PACIFIC WILL FINALLY
MOVE ONSHORE TOMORROW EVENING...AND THEN TRACK INTO THE GREAT
BASIN SUNDAY NIGHT. FROM THERE...IT WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AND
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST FROM NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA TOWARD SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS
REMAIN QUITE CONSISTENT OVERALL WITH ITS TRACK...WITH GENERALLY
MINOR FLUCTUATIONS FROM RUN TO RUN AND BETWEEN THE INDIVIDUAL
MODELS AS WELL. DESPITE THE RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT...IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THE STORM IS STILL OVER THE PACIFIC AND NOT A TREMENDOUS
AMOUNT OF DATA INCORPORATED INTO THE MODELS YET.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS HAVE REMAINED RATHER CONSISTENT SHOWING
GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
OCCURS AS DEEP Q-G LIFT ARRIVES AND A WEAK BUT DEEP UPSLOPE
COMPONENT DEVELOPS. THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL INTENSIFY MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH GETS SOME NEGATIVE TILT TO
IT. EARLY ON IN THIS EVENT...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...THE FLOW IS EAST/SOUTHEAST WHICH ACTUALLY FAVORS
LOCATIONS NORTH OF DENVER. THEN...AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS BY FLOW
TURNS MORE NORTHEASTERLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD TO THE PALMER DIVIDE
AREA DURING THIS TIME. IT SHOULD BE NOTED WE DONT SEE SNOWFALL
RATES AS BEING TOO HEAVY AT ANY ONE TIME DURING THIS STORM...BUT
THE DURATION OF THIS STORM COULD VERY WELL ADD UP TO HEAVY STORM
TOTAL AMOUNTS BEFORE FINALLY DECREASING TUESDAY MORNING.
FAVORABLE FACTORS FOR HEAVY TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE...CURRENT
EXPECTED TRACK OF THE 700 MB CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR OR JUST NORTH
OF THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER...LONG DURATION...PERSISTENT AND
DEEP Q-G LIFT...PERSISTENT AND DEEP UPSLOPE FLOW...AND A
DENDRITIC GROWTH REGIME WITH BEST VERTICAL MOTION THROUGH THE -12C
TO -16C LAYER. GOING AGAINST IT WOULD BE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND
LACK OF A TROWAL AS GULF MOISTURE DOES NOT APPEAR TO GET WRAPPED
INTO THIS STORM WHILE ITS AFFECTING OUR FORECAST AREA. BOTH OF
THOSE NEGATIVE FACTORS ARE SOMEWHAT CONCERNING...BUT THE LONG
DURATION OF AT LEAST LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE SNOWFALL SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO BRING SUBSTANTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MANY LOCATIONS ON THE PLAINS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO
SEE 6-12 INCHES...BUT FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE
FOOTHILLS/EASTERN SLOPE OF THE FRONT RANGE COULD SEE 2 FEET. WILL
GO AHEAD AND HOIST A WINTER STORM WATCH BEGINNING TOMORROW NIGHT
FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND KEEP IT TIL NOON TUESDAY.
BEYOND TUESDAY...PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH PASSING SHORT WAVES. THE
PLAINS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY WITH DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...BUT
CANT RULE OUT A COUPLE BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS. THIS WOULD ACT TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 757 PM MST SAT JAN 30 2016
BAND OF MDT SNOW WILL AFFECT DIA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF THIS
ACTIVITY STALLS THEN IT COULD LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH
SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR. FOR NOW WILL KEEP SNOW
AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE. LIGHTER SNOW MAY OCCUR THRU 2 AM
BEFORE GRADUALLY ENDING BY 4 AM.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR COZ048-050-051.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR COZ033>037.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ031-033-034.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR COZ038>047-049.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
253 PM EST FRI JAN 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
20Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTHERN
STREAM JET IS ARRIVING ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/OREGON...AND
THEN STREAMING EASTWARD THROUGH A SERIES OF BROAD TROUGHS/RIDGES
THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...HIGH PLAINS...AND UPPER MIDWEST.
THE MOST DRAMATIC AMPLIFICATION ON THE ANALYSIS IS THE DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH IS NOW BEGINNING
TO MAKE ITS WAY OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE TROUGH AXIS AT OUR LATITUDE IS WELL TO OUR EAST
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS HAS ALLOWED ALL THE INCLEMENT WEATHER
THAT WAS WITH US DURING FRIDAY TO PUSH AWAY FROM THE REGION. DEEP
LAYER SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIED OUT THE COLUMN OVER OUR HEADS ALLOWED FOR A
LITTLE THING CALLED "THE SUN" TO RETURN TO OUR SKIES TODAY.
THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING SHOWS A DRAMATIC DRYING OF THE COLUMN SINCE
YESTERDAY IN RESPONSE TO THIS SUBSIDENCE. BOTH SOUNDING PROFILES
FROM FRIDAY HAD A PW VALUE OVER 1.5". THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING
DRIED OUT ALL THE WAY TO 0.22"...WITH LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION
THROUGH THE EXTENT OF THE TROP ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS PW VALUE IS
NOW ACTUALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL. QUITE A CHANGE IN ONLY 12 HOURS.
WE TOLD YOU THE DRIER WEATHER WAS COMING...AND IT HAS CERTAINLY
ARRIVED.
THE ONLY CLOUDS IN THE SKY ARE DOWN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WITHIN THE
FORCING OF A STILL STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM JET. THESE ARE ONLY HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS ACTING TO FILTER THE SUN...AND WILL HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE COLUMN
PER KMFL (MIAMI) SOUNDING THIS MORNING IS VERY VERY DRY BELOW
400MB (UNDER THIS UPPER JET).
AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE RIDGE OF 1020+MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARD
THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL ARRIVE AND PARK OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS STILL ELEVATED
FROM THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LAST NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE
DOWN AS THE RIDGE CENTER APPROACHES. BOATING CONDITIONS ACTUALLY
LOOK VERY PLEASANT FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
REST OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES...AND WILL CALL IT PARTLY
CLOUDY FURTHER SOUTH WHERE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE PASSING
OVERHEAD WITH THE UPPER JET ENERGY. HIGH TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE
60S REGION-WIDE. PERHAPS TEMPS RISE ANOTHER DEGREE OR 2 BEFORE 4
PM...BUT THEN WILL BEGIN A STEADY DECLINE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY (BY FLORIDA STANDARDS). THE HIGH CENTER
ARRIVING OVERHEAD AND DRY AIR WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. NOW...THE OVERALL AIRMASS IS NOT THAT COLD FOR
JANUARY...AND THEREFORE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...MOST SPOTS WILL FIND THEMSELVES
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S BY SUNRISE...WITH A FEW NORMALLY COLDER
RADIATIONAL COOLING SPOTS ACROSS THE NATURE COAST LIKELY DROPPING
INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY OVER
THE NATURE COAST ALSO DUE TO THE FACT THAT THESE ZONES WILL BE THE
LAST TO SEE AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN HIGH CIRRUS EXPANDING
NORTHWARD WITH TIME. SOMETIMES...ALTHOUGH HIGH ABOVE THE SURFACE
CAN DISRUPT/SLOW THE RADIATIONAL COOLING PROCESS. IF THE CIRRUS
HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH...PERHAPS A FEW PATCHES OF FROST EARLY
SATURDAY FROM PASCO COUNTY NORTHWARD. CONFIDENCE IN SOME PATCHY
FROST IS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD TO THE FORECAST GRIDS OVER LEVY
COUNTY AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER SOME VERY ISOLATED PATCHES OF FROST
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.
FOR SATURDAY...A DRY...FAIR...AND PLEASANT WINTER DAY ON TAP. IT
WILL OBVIOUSLY START OUT ON THE CHILLY SIDE. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL
WARM QUICKLY ONCE THE SUN RISES..AND ANTICIPATE MOST SPOTS TO
REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
REGION...WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AND THIS WILL HELP IT FEEL
EVEN MORE COMFORTABLE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. WILL CALL IT A MIX
OF CLOUDS AND FILTERED SUN...AS SCT-BKN BANDS OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS
STREAM OVER THE STATE ASSOCIATED WITH RENEWED SOUTHERN STREAM JET
ENERGY. THESE CIRRUS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER PORTION OF THE FORECAST OTHER THAN TO PERHAPS HOLD HIGH
TEMPS DOWN JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE ATMOSPHERIC
POTENTIAL.
ENJOY THIS MUCH DESERVED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER...THAT IS FORECAST
TO LINGER THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE WEEKEND. IF HEADED OUTDOORS
EARLY TOMORROW...A LIGHT JACKET MAY BE NEEDED FOR A FEW HOURS
SURROUNDING SUNRISE....UNTIL DIURNAL HEATING HAS SOME TIME TO MAKE
THINGS MORE COMFORTABLE.
&&
.MID/LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH FAST SPLIT FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AND BEYOND. BRIEF UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ALONG THE S.E. SEABOARD THEN
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES SUN/MON. WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES BACK INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WITH WARMING TREND
BEGINNING SUN AND ALSO INCREASING ATLANTIC LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MID WEEK WITH
STRONG SURFACE STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. WHILE LOCALLY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TUE/WED.
THE WELL REMOVED BUT ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE GULF COAST REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THEN THE E GULF AND FL
PENINSULA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MAIN DYNAMICS SHEARING OUT AND TO
THE NORTH BUT STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR 50-60 PERCENT SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGS OVER THE AREA FOR
ANOTHER 24-48 RAIN EVENT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ARRIVING DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...CONDITIONS MAY POTENTIALLY BECOME FAVORABLE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG. THIS SEA FOG EVENT IS STILL A LONG
WAY OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...HOWEVER DUE TO THE HIGH POTENTIAL
IMPACTS OF THESE FOG EVENTS ON MARINE AND COMMERCE ACTIVITIES...IT
IS PRUDENT TO BEGIN DISCUSSING THE POSSIBILITY. FORECAST TRENDS
SHOULD BE MONITORED CLOSELY BY ALL INTERESTED PARTIES OVER THE
COMING DAYS.
COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE CONDITIONS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
LATE.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD...AND BEYOND. LOOK
FOR A SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS OVER THE STATE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS STEADILY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
THIS EVENING BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION FOR SUNDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO COME AROUND
TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...A CONTINUED LIGHT GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS LOW.
THE OUTLOOK IS TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
DUE TO THE HIGH POTENTIAL IMPACTS...IT IS PRUDENT TO MENTION THAT
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO POTENTIALLY BECOME FAVORABLE
OF ANOTHER SEA FOG EVENT DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW 35 PERCENT
FOR SEVERAL HOURS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
HOWEVER...ERC VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW AND WINDS LIGHT...PREVENTING
RED FLAG CONDITIONS. A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL THEN PREVENT CRITICAL LEVELS OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL...
A FEW PATCHES OF SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND DAWN
SATURDAY MORNING...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT FOG CONCERNS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 47 69 53 73 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 45 72 54 78 / 0 0 0 10
GIF 43 72 52 77 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 47 66 51 74 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 41 71 43 76 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 51 68 57 74 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...DAVIS/MROCZKA
DECISION SUPPORT...DAVIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1237 PM EST FRI JAN 29 2016
.UPDATE...
17Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
JET IS ARRIVING ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/OREGON...AND THEN
STREAMING EASTWARD THROUGH A SERIES OF BROAD TROUGHS/RIDGES
THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...HIGH PLAINS...AND UPPER MIDWEST.
THE MOST DRAMATIC AMPLIFICATION ON THE ANALYSIS IS THE DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH IS JUST NOW
BEGINNING TO MAKE IT WAY OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE TROUGH AXIS IS WELL TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS AS ALLOWED ALL THE INCLEMENT WEATHER THAT WAS
WITH US DURING FRIDAY TO PUSH AWAY FROM THE REGION. DEEP LAYER
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIED OUT THE COLUMN OVER OUR HEADS AND IS ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE
THING CALLED "THE SUN" TO RETURN TO OUR SKIES.
THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING SHOWS A DRAMATIC DRYING OF THE COLUMN SINCE
YESTERDAY IN RESPONSE TO THIS SUBSIDENCE. BOTH SOUNDING PROFILES
ON FRIDAY HAD A PW VALUE OVER 1.5". THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING HAS
DRIED OUT ALL THE WAY TO 0.22"...WITH LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION
THROUGH THE EXTENT OF THE TROP ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS PW VALUE
IS NOW ACTUALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL. QUITE A CHANGE IN ONLY 12
HOURS. WE TOLD YOU THE DRIER WEATHER WAS COMING...AND IT HAS
CERTAINLY ARRIVED.
THE ONLY CLOUDS IN THE SKY ARE DOWN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WITHIN THE
FORCING OF A STILL STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM JET. THESE ARE ONLY HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS ACTING TO FILTER THE SUN...AND WILL HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE COLUMN
PER KMFL (MIAMI) SOUNDING THIS MORNING IS VERY VERY DRY BELOW
400MB (UNDER THIS UPPER JET).
AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE RIDGE OF 1020+MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARD
THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL ARRIVE AND PARK OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS STILL ELEVATED
FROM THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LAST NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE
DOWN AS THE RIDGE CENTER APPROACHES. BOATING CONDITIONS ACTUALLY
LOOK VERY PLEASANT FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
SO FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES...AND WILL CALL IT PARTLY SUNNY FURTHER
SOUTH WHERE MORE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH WITH
THE UPPER JET ENERGY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REACH INTO THE
60S FOR MOST SPOTS. THE COOLER TEMPS SO FAR TODAY HAVE ACTUALLY
BEEN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES...WHERE THE FILTERED SUNSHINE
HAS SLOWED THE DIURNAL TEMP RISE. DO EXPECT EVEN FORT MYERS TO
REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S BEFORE THE AFTERNOON IS THROUGH.
TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY (BY FLORIDA STANDARDS). THE HIGH CENTER
ARRIVING OVERHEAD AND DRY AIR WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. NOW...THE OVERALL AIRMASS IS NOT THAT COLD
FOR JANUARY...AND THEREFORE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FREEZING
TEMPERATURES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...MOST SPOTS WILL
FIND THEMSELVES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S BY SUNRISE...WITH A FEW
NORMALLY COLDER RADIATIONAL COOLING SPOTS ACROSS THE NATURE COAST
LIKELY DROPPING INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S. PERHAPS A FEW PATCHES OF
FROST EARLY SATURDAY FROM PASCO COUNTY NORTHWARD...AND WILL LOOK
CLOSER AT THIS WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
FOR SATURDAY...A DRY...FAIR...AND PLEASANT WINTER DAY ON TAP. IT
WILL OBVIOUSLY START OUT ON THE CHILLY SIDE. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL
WARM QUICKLY ONCE THE SUN RISES..AND ANTICIPATE MOST SPOTS TO
REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
REGION...WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AND THIS WILL HELP IT FEEL
EVEN MORE COMFORTABLE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
ENJOY THIS MUCH DESERVED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER...THAT IS FORECAST
TO LINGER THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE WEEKEND...AND BEYOND.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
BEYOND. LOOK FOR A SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS OVER THE
STATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS STEADILY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND A FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE REGION FOR SUNDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...A CONTINUED LIGHT GRADIENT WILL KEEP WIND
SPEEDS AND SEAS LOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 64 50 69 53 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 68 48 72 54 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 67 46 71 52 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 65 47 69 51 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 65 40 71 43 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 65 53 69 57 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA
DECISION SUPPORT...DAVIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
839 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016
Temperatures have dropped off much quicker than expected with
several areas across the north half of the forecast area already
at or below expected overnight lows. Sent out an update earlier
this evening to address the cooler temperatures across the north
with a warm front positioned along or just north of I-70 at this
hour. This boundary is expected to lift north later this evening
with southerly winds increasing as well as the front shifts north.
This should put a halt to any additional drop off in temperature
with readings actually slowly rising overnight.
Fairly thick cirrus shield across the area with the colder cloud
tops on IR satellite data lifting just to our northwest associated
with another fast moving shortwave over the central Plains this
evening. This upper wave and associated surface low pressure will
track across central Illinois on Sunday bringing the threat for
some scattered light showers along with unseasonably mild temps for
one more day. With the additional changes made to the grids will
send out another ZFP update by 900 pm.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016
One weak wave is moving through Central Illinois this afternoon with
little more than high and mid clouds associated with it. Clouds
have not impeded the warm up, however. General WAA across the
region is resulting in temps well over normals for late January.
This trend overnight will keep the temps above freezing with mostly
southerly winds all night. Clouds may end up increasing towards
morning as another weak surface low moves SW to NE just NE of ILX by
sunrise.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016
Two systems on track to affect central IL through Wednesday. First
will be a weak system producing a chance for light rain showers and
a return to cooler temperatures Sunday. Second will be a strong
storm system producing significant winter weather from the central
Plains through the Great Lakes Region and a potential for severe
thunderstorms from the lower Mississippi to lower Ohio valley
regions...including southeast Illinois. Models have been relatively
consistent last several runs tracking the center of this low through
central or NW Illinois Tuesday afternoon-evening...delineating a
winter weather threat to the northwest and a severe thunderstorm
threat to the southeast. Although the uncertainty with this track
has changed little with this morning`s 12Z model cycle...the extent
of severe thunderstorm threat in SE Illinois bears watching, as well
as the winter weather threat not far off to the NW.
The first system on Sunday will push a cold front southeastward
across central Illinois beginning Sunday morning and reaching
southeast Illinois Sunday evening. Main upper level forcing looks to
pass by to the north, while strong low level moisture flux, weak
warm advection, and a weak upper level wave Sunday evening look to
target southeast Illinois. As a result...only expecting chances for
light rain...lingering latest in southeast Illinois. Temperatures
should max out only in the mid to upper 40s NW of the Illinois River
as the cold front should pass through by noon...while temperatures
as high as 60 degrees may be reached south of I-70 as the front
arrives in the late afternoon. Conditions should be dry across
central and SE Illinois by midnight with min temperatures Sunday
night reaching from the upper 20s at Galesburg to around 40 in
Lawrenceville.
Monday...the approaching strong storm system will have it`s surface
low centered from northeast New Mexico to the Oklahoma panhandle
area...while central and SE Illinois see quiet weather under high
pressure with light winds, some mid and high clouds, and mild highs
in the 40s.
The heavier precipitation looks to hold off through Monday night as
the low crosses Oklahoma...however temperatures should be cold
enough from around the I-74 corridor northward that some brief light
snow, sleet, and freezing rain are possible early Tuesday morning
before significant warming of lower levels takes place following a
warm frontal passage Tuesday morning.
The heaviest precipitation associated with this system for central
IL is on track for the daytime period Tuesday...largely as a period
of moderate to heavy wind-driven rain totaling around 3/4 inch and
some embedded thunderstorms from Springfield to Lawrenceville
southward by noon...spreading northward as far as a Jacksonville to
Champaign line eastward through the afternoon. Sustained winds may
be over 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph. The latest SPC Day 4 outlook
has inched the slight risk of severe storms northward a bit into the
Flora-Lawrenceville corridor, and will need to monitor this
potential as there is a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE progged, and the
GFS indicates 0-6km bulk shear of well over 75 knots Tuesday
afternoon. Highs Tuesday expected to range from 42 in Galesburg to
59 in Lawrenceville.
For Tuesday night, both the GFS and ECMWF show a good portion of the
central IL forecast area coming under the influence of the dry slot
before a post-cold frontal upper wave traverses central IL Wednesday
morning...producing a chance for light snow. However, due to timing
uncertainty this far out, have continued to include a chance for
precipitation through this period in afternoon forecast. Stiff 20-30
mph winds shifting to westerly will accompany this period. Snow
accumulations continue to look low for central Illinois provided the
current expected low track continues. At this time...expecting
accumulations under 1 inch in central IL...and mainly north of I-72
Significant snow accumulations are a strong possibility to the
northwest of the low track...which looks at this time to track from
north central Missouri to northwest Illinois Tuesday afternoon.
Temperatures the remainder of the week will feature surges of colder
air coming down into the Midwest. Some uncertainty remains in the
exact temperatures...however the current blend of extended range
models incorporates high temperatures in the mid 20s to upper 30s
each day Wednesday through Saturday, and lows in the teens to low
20s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016
VFR conditions are expected through about 10z before soundings
indicate an increasing threat for MVFR cigs as low level moisture
slowly increases ahead of our next frontal boundary. The past
few runs of the HRRR model depicted cigs lowering to MVFR first
at CMI, with a gradual shift to the north and west as an area of
low pressure moves across the region Sunday afternoon and evening.
As the system pushes through central Illinois, there may be a
shower or two during the day but deep moisture is lacking with
this weather system so will keep it more scattered with the
higher probabilities over near CMI. Surface winds will be light
southerly early this evening and then pick up from the south
at 12 to 17 kts after 03z most areas with rather gusty south to
southwest winds on Sunday with a few gusts around 25 kts at times,
especially during the afternoon.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
543 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016
One weak wave is moving through Central Illinois this afternoon with
little more than high and mid clouds associated with it. Clouds
have not impeded the warm up, however. General WAA across the
region is resulting in temps well over normals for late January.
This trend overnight will keep the temps above freezing with mostly
southerly winds all night. Clouds may end up increasing towards
morning as another weak surface low moves SW to NE just NE of ILX by
sunrise.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016
Two systems on track to affect central IL through Wednesday. First
will be a weak system producing a chance for light rain showers and
a return to cooler temperatures Sunday. Second will be a strong
storm system producing significant winter weather from the central
Plains through the Great Lakes Region and a potential for severe
thunderstorms from the lower Mississippi to lower Ohio valley
regions...including southeast Illinois. Models have been relatively
consistent last several runs tracking the center of this low through
central or NW Illinois Tuesday afternoon-evening...delineating a
winter weather threat to the northwest and a severe thunderstorm
threat to the southeast. Although the uncertainty with this track
has changed little with this morning`s 12Z model cycle...the extent
of severe thunderstorm threat in SE Illinois bears watching, as well
as the winter weather threat not far off to the NW.
The first system on Sunday will push a cold front southeastward
across central Illinois beginning Sunday morning and reaching
southeast Illinois Sunday evening. Main upper level forcing looks to
pass by to the north, while strong low level moisture flux, weak
warm advection, and a weak upper level wave Sunday evening look to
target southeast Illinois. As a result...only expecting chances for
light rain...lingering latest in southeast Illinois. Temperatures
should max out only in the mid to upper 40s NW of the Illinois River
as the cold front should pass through by noon...while temperatures
as high as 60 degrees may be reached south of I-70 as the front
arrives in the late afternoon. Conditions should be dry across
central and SE Illinois by midnight with min temperatures Sunday
night reaching from the upper 20s at Galesburg to around 40 in
Lawrenceville.
Monday...the approaching strong storm system will have it`s surface
low centered from northeast New Mexico to the Oklahoma panhandle
area...while central and SE Illinois see quiet weather under high
pressure with light winds, some mid and high clouds, and mild highs
in the 40s.
The heavier precipitation looks to hold off through Monday night as
the low crosses Oklahoma...however temperatures should be cold
enough from around the I-74 corridor northward that some brief light
snow, sleet, and freezing rain are possible early Tuesday morning
before significant warming of lower levels takes place following a
warm frontal passage Tuesday morning.
The heaviest precipitation associated with this system for central
IL is on track for the daytime period Tuesday...largely as a period
of moderate to heavy wind-driven rain totaling around 3/4 inch and
some embedded thunderstorms from Springfield to Lawrenceville
southward by noon...spreading northward as far as a Jacksonville to
Champaign line eastward through the afternoon. Sustained winds may
be over 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph. The latest SPC Day 4 outlook
has inched the slight risk of severe storms northward a bit into the
Flora-Lawrenceville corridor, and will need to monitor this
potential as there is a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE progged, and the
GFS indicates 0-6km bulk shear of well over 75 knots Tuesday
afternoon. Highs Tuesday expected to range from 42 in Galesburg to
59 in Lawrenceville.
For Tuesday night, both the GFS and ECMWF show a good portion of the
central IL forecast area coming under the influence of the dry slot
before a post-cold frontal upper wave traverses central IL Wednesday
morning...producing a chance for light snow. However, due to timing
uncertainty this far out, have continued to include a chance for
precipitation through this period in afternoon forecast. Stiff 20-30
mph winds shifting to westerly will accompany this period. Snow
accumulations continue to look low for central Illinois provided the
current expected low track continues. At this time...expecting
accumulations under 1 inch in central IL...and mainly north of I-72
Significant snow accumulations are a strong possibility to the
northwest of the low track...which looks at this time to track from
north central Missouri to northwest Illinois Tuesday afternoon.
Temperatures the remainder of the week will feature surges of colder
air coming down into the Midwest. Some uncertainty remains in the
exact temperatures...however the current blend of extended range
models incorporates high temperatures in the mid 20s to upper 30s
each day Wednesday through Saturday, and lows in the teens to low
20s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016
VFR conditions are expected through about 10z before soundings
indicate an increasing threat for MVFR cigs as low level moisture
slowly increases ahead of our next frontal boundary. The past
few runs of the HRRR model depicted cigs lowering to MVFR first
at CMI, with a gradual shift to the north and west as an area of
low pressure moves across the region Sunday afternoon and evening.
As the system pushes through central Illinois, there may be a
shower or two during the day but deep moisture is lacking with
this weather system so will keep it more scattered with the
higher probabilities over near CMI. Surface winds will be light
southerly early this evening and then pick up from the south
at 12 to 17 kts after 03z most areas with rather gusty south to
southwest winds on Sunday with a few gusts around 25 kts at times,
especially during the afternoon.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1002 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
ONE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY BRINGING SOME RAIN
TO THE AREA. A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE IN ON TUESDAY BRINGING RAIN
AND PERHAPS SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN
ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A RETURN TO SEASONABLE WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM.../REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1002 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
UPDATE...TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S (LOWER THAN
EXPECTED) OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS. MOST AREAS ARE PROBABLY NEAR THEIR
CURRENT LOWS FOR TONIGHT AND AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT WILL
CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN A SLOW RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN CHANGES
TONIGHT WILL BE WITH FINE TUNING TEMPERATURES.
DECIDED TO LEAVE IN CHANCE OF SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENE
IS LOW THAT ANY OF THIS WILL HAPPEN PER NEW RAP WHICH IS SLOWER IN
SATURATING THE LOW LEVELS LATE TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES AS WELL...AND THUS EXPECT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. WILL TREND SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY.
MODELS HINT AT POSSIBILITY OF RAIN BEFORE 12Z...BUT FORCING JUST
DOES NOT LOOK DECENT ENOUGH FOR MEASURABLE RAIN. WILL INCLUDE
MENTION OF SPRINKLES THOUGH.
WENT WITH A BLEND OF MODELS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAM IS A SLOW AND
FARTHER SOUTH OUTLIER WITH A SURFACE LOW ON TUESDAY. NAM IS NOT
USUALLY GREAT AT THAT FAR OUT IN ITS FORECAST ANYWAY. WILL IGNORE IT
AND GO WITH A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF.
WEAK...BUT INCREASING...LIFT WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
AREA WITH WARM ADVECTION. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE BEST FORCING WILL
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT AND
BETTER UPPER SUPPORT MOVE IN.
THUS WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY /BUT LIKELY
FAR NORTHWEST CLOSEST TO THE COLD FRONT/...WITH HIGHEST POPS LATE
AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY EVENING WENT WITH LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOWERED POPS DURING THE NIGHT AS FRONT
EXITS.
MONDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH CENTRAL INDIANA IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. AS
A WARM FRONT BEGINS ITS APPROACH OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...WENT LOW
POPS FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. WENT CHANCE
POPS AS THIS MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA BY 00Z. STRONG WIND FIELDS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
IN PLENTY OF MOISTURE. WENT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC SYSTEM AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO GET SOME STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS /MAINLY SOUTH/
LATE IN THE DAY.
BRIEFLY LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWER CLOUDS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY DID NOT GO AS WARM AS MAV MOS WOULD SUGGEST. HOWEVER...AS
SEEN BY THE TEMPERATURES TODAY...IF SOME SUN DOES BREAK OUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER. GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND AFTER
SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 210 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING INTO THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA AND SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. VERY IMPRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM SW-
NE OVER THE AREA WITH 120 KTS AT H5 AND 160 KT AT H25 AT 03/06Z
THROUGH 03/12Z TIME PERIOD. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW 60-70 KT
LOW LEVEL JET JUST AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT. SPC DAY4
OUTLOOK HAS 15 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA /MAINLY SOUTH OF A HUF - DAY LINE/.
GIVEN THOSE WINDS...WOULD EXPECT STRONG WINDS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WEATHER WILL RETURN TO MORE FEBRUARY-LIKE
WEATHER. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON
THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE WEATHER WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES MORE
NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/03Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 905 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
UPDATE...
INCREASED CLOUDS IN THE MID LEVELS AND CHANGED WIND DIRECTION FROM
SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT KIND.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...BUT LOW CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. CEILINGS WILL
BE RIGHT AROUND THE VFR/MVFR MARK OVERNIGHT...DETERIORATING
FURTHER TO MVFR AROUND DAYBREAK TOMORROW. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD TAF
SITES BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS AT THAT POINT WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR DURING
HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH END OF TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AND START GUSTING UP TO 21 KTS BY MID MORNING
TOMORROW.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/JH
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....DWM
AVIATION...TDUD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
645 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
THE REGION WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
AS WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH FROM THE GULF. AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BRIEFLY COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE
BEFORE A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR MID WEEK WITH SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY A MORE SEASONABLE PUSH OF COLD
AIR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
JANUARY LOOKS TO END ON A MUCH ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL AS WET NOTE AS
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO UTAH WILL CONTINUE EAST WITH WEAK
SFC LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A STRONG
FEED OF GULF MOISTURE WITH IT. TONIGHT WILL BE QUIET WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE CONTINUED INFLUX OF WARMER AIR WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
LOW LEVELS WILL RAPIDLY SATURATE DURING SUNDAY AS THE WAVE
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. HI RES MODELS ALL POINT TOWARDS LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE RAPIDLY
BREAKING OUT ACROSS SE HALF OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING
LOW LEVEL THETA E GRADIENT WITH PRECIP EXPANDING NORTH FROM THERE.
HAVE INCREASED POPS PRIOR TO 18Z BUT KEEP IN CHC FOR NOW AND
INTRODUCED DRIZZLE AS WELL. BEST WINDOW WILL BE FROM 18Z SUN INTO 06
MON AS THE MAIN FORCING AND DEEPEST MSTR ARRIVE. WITH THE SETUP
SOMEWHAT DISJOINTED (MAIN WAVE PASSING TO THE WEST AND NOSE OF BEST
LIFT AND THETA E AIR PUSHING EAST...WORRIED THAT FULL POTENTIAL MAY
NOT BE REALIZED FOR RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. THAT BEING SAID
INCREASE TO HIGH LIKELY STILL WARRANTED WITH TENTH TO MAYBE
QUARTER INCH OF QPF TO BE SEEN AT MOST LOCATIONS.
HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF SNOW AFTER 6Z MONDAY WITH SLOWER ARRIVAL
OF COLD AIR STILL ON TRACK (925 MB TEMPS STILL +1 TO +3 C BY 12Z
MON)WITH QUICKER END TO PRECIP AS FORCING AND DEEPEST MOISTURE
DEPARTS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
A BRIEF INTRUSION OF COLDER/DRIER AIR FOR EARLY MONDAY AS PASSAGE
OF LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL WAVE ALLOWS LOW LEVEL FRONT TO SETTLE
SOUTH OF THE AREA. ATTENTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WILL CENTER ON UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF SOUTHWEST
CONUS...WHICH WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR FIRST PART OF MONDAY SHOULD DELAY ONSET
OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION TO THE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF PAST FEW FORECASTS IN
SLOWING TIMING OF POP INCREASES AND HAVE JUST MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
ON TUESDAY. CYCLOGENESIS AND RAPID DOWNSTREAM INTENSIFICATION OF LOW
LEVEL JET WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING. THERE
STILL APPEARS TO BE A LOW END POTENTIAL OF SOME LIGHT SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN IMMEDIATELY AT ONSET OF PRECIP TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT FROM FORECAST AS STRENGTH OF ADVECTION SHOULD
ALLOW FOR MAINLY RAIN. STRONG MID/UPPER FORCING WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER JET STREAK
STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.
PRIMARY LOW LEVEL THETAE RIDGE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT NARROW IN SCOPE AS
IT TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH A BRIEF WINDOW OF
WEAK NEAR SFC INSTABILITY MAY BE AVAILABLE...AND A POTENTIAL OF A
LEADING EDGE LINE OF GUSTY SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER DURING THIS PERIOD.
INSTABILITY MAGNITUDE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED BUT STRENGTH OF
KINEMATIC FIELDS STILL SUPPORTS PREVIOUS FORECAST IDEA OF ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
PROGRESSION OF DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT
HYDRO CONCERNS...WITH DRY SLOT RAPIDLY ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER MILD DAY IN STORE TUESDAY AS WARM
SECTOR LIFTS NORTHWARD...WITH HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY LIKELY TO BE
REACHED ACROSS MANY AREAS TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
PRECIP MAY CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING BUT RAPID DRYING SHOULD LIMIT THIS
POTENTIAL. SOME INDICATIONS OF WEAKER SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH
TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD PROLONG SCT SNOW
SHOWERS WITH SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BUT CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION. GUSTY WINDS TO 30 TO 40
ARE POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF TIME LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE MID-LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.
REMAINDER OF LONG TERM LOOKS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONABLE NORMS WITH
HIGHS AROUND 30 THURS/FRIDAY AND LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS. HAVE
ALSO CONTINUED PROLONGED CHANCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER MENTION FOR
THU-FRI...ALTHOUGH GRADUALLY BACKING FLOW TO MORE OF A WEST-
SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AND EXPECTED
MODEST LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
LOWER LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY THIS EVENING PER AVAILABLE HIRES
POINT SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...LACK OF HRRR MODEL DATA AND AVIATION
PARAMETERS A HINDER TO SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH EXPECTED
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS DURING THIS VALID PERIOD. WILL STAY VFR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT BUT RAP AND NAM SHOWING LOWER LEVELS
SATURATING TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS REMAINS A CONCERN AS MODELS HAVE
HAD A SIGNIFICANT MOIST BIAS IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS WINTER.
WITH DEEPENING WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
LATE TONIGHT OVER RELATIVELY COLD GROUND...SHOULD SEE LOWER CLOUDS
FINALLY BEGIN TO DEVELOP. CIGS AND VIS LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND RAIN DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY.
FUEL RESTRICTION CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON THROUGH END OF
PERIOD.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...LASHLEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1037 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
.UPDATE...
UPDATE ISSUED AT 852 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
UPDATED THE WIND FORECAST FOR TODAY. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE WINDS. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE THE WINDS A BIT
MORE OVER THE AREA BASED ON LATEST DATA. WRAY HAS BEGUN TO GUST TO
45 MPH. EXPECT THESE WINDS WITH THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
IDALIA...BURLINGTON...ST. FRANCIS...GOODLAND AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.
SOUNDINGS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COLORADO COUNTIES SHOWED A
POSSIBILITY OF WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH MIXING DOWN FOR A BRIEF TIME
LATE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THESE WINDS ARE NEAR THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING THEIR FULL STRENGTH MIXING
DOWN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW QUASI ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE UPSTREAM WITH THE NEAREST OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH MONTANA AND WYOMING WITH A STRONG JETSTREAM AND REGION
OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND MAIN TROUGH AXIS. AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA...CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO.
MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TODAY...AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA. A DEEP DRY LAYER IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL PRECLUDE PRECIP CHANCES. SOME GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTING A
QUICKER FROPA BY MIDDAY WHICH WOULD HAMPER DAYTIME TEMPS. A
GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ACROSS OUR
CWA BEHIND THIS FRONT. NAM/GFS SHOW 35-45KT LLJ PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIDDAY OR THIS AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHTS TO APPROXIMATELY 800MB ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA WOULD
ALLOW GUSTS AROUND 40KT TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. BL WINDS AVERAGE
28-30KT...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH MAV/LAV GUIDANCE. HRRR IS
CURRENTLY THE FASTEST ON FRONTAL TIMING AND ACTUALLY SHOWS GUSTS
AROUND 50KT THIS MORNING. CONSIDERING THE UPSTREAM WINDS
ALOFT...CURRENT SHORTWAVE POSITION...AND PROJECTED MIXING HEIGHTS
THIS SEEMS HIGH AND I AM NOT COMFORTABLE LEANING TOWARDS THAT
SOLUTION. IN ANY CASE GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH APPEAR POSSIBLE IF NOT
LIKELY. RH VALUES IN OUR SOUTHWEST COULD BE AROUND 20
PERCENT...WHICH CONSIDERING THE WINDS CERTAINLY SUPPORTS
ELEVATED/NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WILL KEEP MENTION
IN HWO.
SATURDAY NIGHT...A MUCH STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY EVENING OR OVERNIGHT WITH PROJECTED 6HR PRESSURE RISES 8
TO 12 MB BETWEEN MODELS BEHIND THIS FRONT AND MUCH BETTER.
NAM/GFS 850MB WINDS BEHIND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE AROUND
40 KT AND CONSIDERING THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT I WOULD
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING AND INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT SUPPORTS
AT LEAST A PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MAIN
PRECIP SIGNAL TIED TO 850-500 MB FRONTOGENESIS. MODELS VARY ON
TIMING/POSITION WITH MANY MODELS NOW SHIFTING BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL
FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. I MATCHED THIS TREND WITH
THE CURRENT UPDATE.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...AIR MASS WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH H85 TEMPS
AROUND 0C THROUGH THE DAY...AND 2M TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
30S OR 40S (NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS). THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR FRONT AND PRECIP CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
EAST OF OUR CWA...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW IN OUR WEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS WEAK VORTICITY
CONTINUES TO ROTATE TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AHEAD OF DEVELOPING
LARGE SCALE TROUGH. MUCH BETTER CHANCES ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT FROM OUR SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND THE UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS
ALLOWS FOR INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH SW FLOW
OVERRIDING THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. WE COULD SEE 0.5 TO 1" SNOW
ACCUMULATION SUNDAY NIGHT IN OUR SOUTHWEST BEFORE SUNRISE BASED
ON CONSENSUS QPF TOTALS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION IS
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY AND FURTHER
EAST INTO IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
FROM COLORADO INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MONDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST NEAR KANSAS CITY ON TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE H5
LOW FOR THIS UPCOMING EVENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DIFFERENCES
OCCUR WITH THE TOTAL SNOWFALL. AT THIS TIME PREFER THE MORE
CONSERVATIVE AMOUNTS FROM THE ECMWF DUE MAINLY TO THE SHORT AMOUNT
OF TIME THE SYSTEM WILL ACTUALLY BE OVER THE REGION. MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF AN ALL SNOW EVENT. SNOW SHOULD BE
ONGOING MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN TAPERS OFF BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.
MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 25 TO 30 ON TUESDAY. MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S MONDAY NIGHT
AND THEN REMAIN IN THE TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAFS. BLOWING DUST IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON AS LONG AS GUSTS REMAIN
ABOVE 35 KTS. SO FAR NO REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY HAVE HAVE BEEN
REPORTED. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE
AFTERNOON. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DECLINE.
ON A SIDE NOTE MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KGLD DUE TO
THE BLOWING DUST. THIS MAY ALSO HAPPEN AT KMCK DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
907 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
.UPDATE...
UPDATE ISSUED AT 852 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
UPDATED THE WIND FORECAST FOR TODAY. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE WINDS. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE THE WINDS A BIT
MORE OVER THE AREA BASED ON LATEST DATA. WRAY HAS BEGUN TO GUST TO
45 MPH. EXPECT THESE WINDS WITH THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
IDALIA...BURLINGTON...ST. FRANCIS...GOODLAND AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.
SOUNDINGS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COLORADO COUNTIES SHOWED A
POSSIBILITY OF WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH MIXING DOWN FOR A BRIEF TIME
LATE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THESE WINDS ARE NEAR THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING THEIR FULL STRENGTH MIXING
DOWN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW QUASI ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE UPSTREAM WITH THE NEAREST OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH MONTANA AND WYOMING WITH A STRONG JETSTREAM AND REGION
OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND MAIN TROUGH AXIS. AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA...CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO.
MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TODAY...AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA. A DEEP DRY LAYER IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL PRECLUDE PRECIP CHANCES. SOME GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTING A
QUICKER FROPA BY MIDDAY WHICH WOULD HAMPER DAYTIME TEMPS. A
GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ACROSS OUR
CWA BEHIND THIS FRONT. NAM/GFS SHOW 35-45KT LLJ PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIDDAY OR THIS AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHTS TO APPROXIMATELY 800MB ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA WOULD
ALLOW GUSTS AROUND 40KT TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. BL WINDS AVERAGE
28-30KT...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH MAV/LAV GUIDANCE. HRRR IS
CURRENTLY THE FASTEST ON FRONTAL TIMING AND ACTUALLY SHOWS GUSTS
AROUND 50KT THIS MORNING. CONSIDERING THE UPSTREAM WINDS
ALOFT...CURRENT SHORTWAVE POSITION...AND PROJECTED MIXING HEIGHTS
THIS SEEMS HIGH AND I AM NOT COMFORTABLE LEANING TOWARDS THAT
SOLUTION. IN ANY CASE GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH APPEAR POSSIBLE IF NOT
LIKELY. RH VALUES IN OUR SOUTHWEST COULD BE AROUND 20
PERCENT...WHICH CONSIDERING THE WINDS CERTAINLY SUPPORTS
ELEVATED/NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WILL KEEP MENTION
IN HWO.
SATURDAY NIGHT...A MUCH STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY EVENING OR OVERNIGHT WITH PROJECTED 6HR PRESSURE RISES 8
TO 12 MB BETWEEN MODELS BEHIND THIS FRONT AND MUCH BETTER.
NAM/GFS 850MB WINDS BEHIND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE AROUND
40 KT AND CONSIDERING THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT I WOULD
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING AND INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT SUPPORTS
AT LEAST A PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MAIN
PRECIP SIGNAL TIED TO 850-500 MB FRONTOGENESIS. MODELS VARY ON
TIMING/POSITION WITH MANY MODELS NOW SHIFTING BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL
FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. I MATCHED THIS TREND WITH
THE CURRENT UPDATE.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...AIR MASS WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH H85 TEMPS
AROUND 0C THROUGH THE DAY...AND 2M TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
30S OR 40S (NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS). THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR FRONT AND PRECIP CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
EAST OF OUR CWA...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW IN OUR WEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS WEAK VORTICITY
CONTINUES TO ROTATE TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AHEAD OF DEVELOPING
LARGE SCALE TROUGH. MUCH BETTER CHANCES ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT FROM OUR SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND THE UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS
ALLOWS FOR INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH SW FLOW
OVERRIDING THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. WE COULD SEE 0.5 TO 1" SNOW
ACCUMULATION SUNDAY NIGHT IN OUR SOUTHWEST BEFORE SUNRISE BASED
ON CONSENSUS QPF TOTALS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION IS
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY AND FURTHER
EAST INTO IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
FROM COLORADO INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MONDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST NEAR KANSAS CITY ON TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE H5
LOW FOR THIS UPCOMING EVENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DIFFERENCES
OCCUR WITH THE TOTAL SNOWFALL. AT THIS TIME PREFER THE MORE
CONSERVATIVE AMOUNTS FROM THE ECMWF DUE MAINLY TO THE SHORT AMOUNT
OF TIME THE SYSTEM WILL ACTUALLY BE OVER THE REGION. MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF AN ALL SNOW EVENT. SNOW SHOULD BE
ONGOING MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN TAPERS OFF BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.
MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 25 TO 30 ON TUESDAY. MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S MONDAY NIGHT
AND THEN REMAIN IN THE TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE
STRONG WINDS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND INCREASE. THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD MODEL SUPPORT
FOR WIND GUSTING 30-40KT AT BOTH TERMINALS BY MIDDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AND I KEPT THESE CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR AT
LEAST 3HR BASED ON LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES EAST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ALLOWING
FOR STRONGER GUSTS TO DIMINISH. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND DECREASE BELOW 10KT THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
859 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 852 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
UPDATED THE WIND FORECAST FOR TODAY. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE WINDS. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE THE WINDS A BIT
MORE OVER THE AREA BASED ON LATEST DATA. WRAY HAS BEGUN TO GUST TO
45 MPH. EXPECT THESE WINDS WITH THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA TODAY. LOOKS LIKE WINDS ARE ABOUT AN HOUR AHEAD
OF THE FORECAST BASED ON THE REPORT FROM WRAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE IDALIA...BURLINGTON...ST. FRANCIS...GOODLAND
AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SOUNDINGS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COLORADO COUNTIES SHOWED A
POSSIBILITY OF WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH MIXING DOWN FOR A BRIEF TIME
LATE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THESE WINDS ARE NEAR THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING THEIR FULL STRENGTH MIXING
DOWN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW QUASI ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE UPSTREAM WITH THE NEAREST OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH MONTANA AND WYOMING WITH A STRONG JETSTREAM AND REGION
OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND MAIN TROUGH AXIS. AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA...CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO.
MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TODAY...AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA. A DEEP DRY LAYER IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL PRECLUDE PRECIP CHANCES. SOME GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTING A
QUICKER FROPA BY MIDDAY WHICH WOULD HAMPER DAYTIME TEMPS. A
GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ACROSS OUR
CWA BEHIND THIS FRONT. NAM/GFS SHOW 35-45KT LLJ PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIDDAY OR THIS AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHTS TO APPROXIMATELY 800MB ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA WOULD
ALLOW GUSTS AROUND 40KT TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. BL WINDS AVERAGE
28-30KT...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH MAV/LAV GUIDANCE. HRRR IS
CURRENTLY THE FASTEST ON FRONTAL TIMING AND ACTUALLY SHOWS GUSTS
AROUND 50KT THIS MORNING. CONSIDERING THE UPSTREAM WINDS
ALOFT...CURRENT SHORTWAVE POSITION...AND PROJECTED MIXING HEIGHTS
THIS SEEMS HIGH AND I AM NOT COMFORTABLE LEANING TOWARDS THAT
SOLUTION. IN ANY CASE GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH APPEAR POSSIBLE IF NOT
LIKELY. RH VALUES IN OUR SOUTHWEST COULD BE AROUND 20
PERCENT...WHICH CONSIDERING THE WINDS CERTAINLY SUPPORTS
ELEVATED/NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WILL KEEP MENTION
IN HWO.
SATURDAY NIGHT...A MUCH STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY EVENING OR OVERNIGHT WITH PROJECTED 6HR PRESSURE RISES 8
TO 12 MB BETWEEN MODELS BEHIND THIS FRONT AND MUCH BETTER.
NAM/GFS 850MB WINDS BEHIND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE AROUND
40 KT AND CONSIDERING THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT I WOULD
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING AND INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT SUPPORTS
AT LEAST A PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MAIN
PRECIP SIGNAL TIED TO 850-500 MB FRONTOGENESIS. MODELS VARY ON
TIMING/POSITION WITH MANY MODELS NOW SHIFTING BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL
FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. I MATCHED THIS TREND WITH
THE CURRENT UPDATE.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...AIR MASS WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH H85 TEMPS
AROUND 0C THROUGH THE DAY...AND 2M TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
30S OR 40S (NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS). THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR FRONT AND PRECIP CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
EAST OF OUR CWA...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW IN OUR WEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS WEAK VORTICITY
CONTINUES TO ROTATE TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AHEAD OF DEVELOPING
LARGE SCALE TROUGH. MUCH BETTER CHANCES ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT FROM OUR SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND THE UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS
ALLOWS FOR INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH SW FLOW
OVERRIDING THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. WE COULD SEE 0.5 TO 1" SNOW
ACCUMULATION SUNDAY NIGHT IN OUR SOUTHWEST BEFORE SUNRISE BASED
ON CONSENSUS QPF TOTALS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION IS
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY AND FURTHER
EAST INTO IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
FROM COLORADO INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MONDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST NEAR KANSAS CITY ON TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE H5
LOW FOR THIS UPCOMING EVENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DIFFERENCES
OCCUR WITH THE TOTAL SNOWFALL. AT THIS TIME PREFER THE MORE
CONSERVATIVE AMOUNTS FROM THE ECMWF DUE MAINLY TO THE SHORT AMOUNT
OF TIME THE SYSTEM WILL ACTUALLY BE OVER THE REGION. MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF AN ALL SNOW EVENT. SNOW SHOULD BE
ONGOING MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN TAPERS OFF BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.
MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 25 TO 30 ON TUESDAY. MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S MONDAY NIGHT
AND THEN REMAIN IN THE TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE
STRONG WINDS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND INCREASE. THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD MODEL SUPPORT
FOR WIND GUSTING 30-40KT AT BOTH TERMINALS BY MIDDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AND I KEPT THESE CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR AT
LEAST 3HR BASED ON LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES EAST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ALLOWING
FOR STRONGER GUSTS TO DIMINISH. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND DECREASE BELOW 10KT THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
421 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW QUASI ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE UPSTREAM WITH THE NEAREST OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH MONTANA AND WYOMING WITH A STRONG JETSTREAM AND REGION
OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND MAIN TROUGH AXIS. AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA...CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO.
MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TODAY...AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA. A DEEP DRY LAYER IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL PRECLUDE PRECIP CHANCES. SOME GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTING A
QUICKER FROPA BY MIDDAY WHICH WOULD HAMPER DAYTIME TEMPS. A
GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ACROSS OUR
CWA BEHIND THIS FRONT. NAM/GFS SHOW 35-45KT LLJ PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIDDAY OR THIS AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHTS TO APPROXIMATELY 800MB ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA WOULD
ALLOW GUSTS AROUND 40KT TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. BL WINDS AVERAGE
28-30KT...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH MAV/LAV GUIDANCE. HRRR IS
CURRENTLY THE FASTEST ON FRONTAL TIMING AND ACTUALLY SHOWS GUSTS
AROUND 50KT THIS MORNING. CONSIDERING THE UPSTREAM WINDS
ALOFT...CURRENT SHORTWAVE POSITION...AND PROJECTED MIXING HEIGHTS
THIS SEEMS HIGH AND I AM NOT COMFORTABLE LEANING TOWARDS THAT
SOLUTION. IN ANY CASE GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH APPEAR POSSIBLE IF NOT
LIKELY. RH VALUES IN OUR SOUTHWEST COULD BE AROUND 20
PERCENT...WHICH CONSIDERING THE WINDS CERTAINLY SUPPORTS
ELEVATED/NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WILL KEEP MENTION
IN HWO.
SATURDAY NIGHT...A MUCH STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY EVENING OR OVERNIGHT WITH PROJECTED 6HR PRESSURE RISES 8
TO 12 MB BETWEEN MODELS BEHIND THIS FRONT AND MUCH BETTER.
NAM/GFS 850MB WINDS BEHIND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE AROUND
40 KT AND CONSIDERING THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT I WOULD
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING AND INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT SUPPORTS
AT LEAST A PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MAIN
PRECIP SIGNAL TIED TO 850-500 MB FRONTOGENESIS. MODELS VARY ON
TIMING/POSITION WITH MANY MODELS NOW SHIFTING BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL
FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. I MATCHED THIS TREND WITH
THE CURRENT UPDATE.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...AIR MASS WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH H85 TEMPS
AROUND 0C THROUGH THE DAY...AND 2M TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
30S OR 40S (NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS). THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR FRONT AND PRECIP CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
EAST OF OUR CWA...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW IN OUR WEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS WEAK VORTICITY
CONTINUES TO ROTATE TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AHEAD OF DEVELOPING
LARGE SCALE TROUGH. MUCH BETTER CHANCES ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT FROM OUR SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND THE UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS
ALLOWS FOR INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH SW FLOW
OVERRIDING THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. WE COULD SEE 0.5 TO 1" SNOW
ACCUMULATION SUNDAY NIGHT IN OUR SOUTHWEST BEFORE SUNRISE BASED
ON CONSENSUS QPF TOTALS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION IS
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY AND FURTHER
EAST INTO IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
FROM COLORADO INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MONDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST NEAR KANSAS CITY ON TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE H5
LOW FOR THIS UPCOMING EVENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DIFFERENCES
OCCUR WITH THE TOTAL SNOWFALL. AT THIS TIME PREFER THE MORE
CONSERVATIVE AMOUNTS FROM THE ECMWF DUE MAINLY TO THE SHORT AMOUNT
OF TIME THE SYSTEM WILL ACTUALLY BE OVER THE REGION. MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF AN ALL SNOW EVENT. SNOW SHOULD BE
ONGOING MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN TAPERS OFF BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.
MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 25 TO 30 ON TUESDAY. MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S MONDAY NIGHT
AND THEN REMAIN IN THE TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE
STRONG WINDS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND INCREASE. THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD MODEL SUPPORT
FOR WIND GUSTING 30-40KT AT BOTH TERMINALS BY MIDDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AND I KEPT THESE CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR AT
LEAST 3HR BASED ON LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES EAST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ALLOWING
FOR STRONGER GUSTS TO DIMINISH. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND DECREASE BELOW 10KT THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
505 AM CST FRI JAN 29 2016
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST FRI JAN 29 2016
A shortwave trough embedded in zonal mid to high level flow will
traverse the central plains today. Having come downslope, the
associated low to mid level cool surge will have modified by the
time it arrives this afternoon into western Kansas. Temperatures
in the wake of this feature early this morning were in the 30s
and 40s from southeastern Montana into eastern Wyoming and the
Nebraska panhandle, which is very mild by January standards. This
front will stall out over the the southern plains by Friday and
then get shoved back northward into far southwestern Kansas by
Saturday afternoon ahead of another progressive shortwave trough
embedded within the zonal westerlies. A much stronger shortwave
trough is still progged to move into the western United States by
Sunday and then amplify over the southern plains by Monday and
Tuesday. This system is expected to undergo strong baroclinic
development as it moves across Kansas and Oklahoma. In the wake of
this system, cold surface high pressure is expected to settle
across the plains later Tuesday and into early Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST FRI JAN 29 2016
A wind shift to the north can be expected by early afternoon.
Despite this weak frontal passage, temperatures are still expected
to reach into the mid to even upper 60s across the southern tier
of southwestern Kansas, with lower 60s in central and west central
Kansas. The NAM continues its cool bias in these situations and
doesn`t show strong enough low level warming. It also seems to
underestimate the extent of downslope warming in the wake of the
front. After the breezy north winds today this afternoon, winds
are expected to drop off by sunset, with temperatures falling back
into the upper 20s to lower 30s by Saturday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST FRI JAN 29 2016
Temperatures ought to be very mild in far southwestern Kansas on
Saturday as the aforementioned warm front surges through Elkhart
into the Liberal area by late afternoon. Temperatures there could
reach close to 70, with cooler highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s
farther northeast. The three major models seem to be coming into
reasonable agreement with the upper level storm system expected to
pass across the plains by early next week. The GFS is the
farthest north but still would result in appreciable snowfall
from Dodge City northward to Hays and Scott City. The GEM is the
farthest south, which would result in the heaviest snowfall from
Larned and Jetmore southward to the Oklahoma state line. The ECMWF
is the middle solution and would result in significant snowfall
across much of southwestern and central Kansas. If these model
solutions are close to being correct, then snow should develop
late Sunday night and persist into early Tuesday. The
precipitation could begin as rain in south central Kansas. Due to
the expected high winds, considerable blowing and drifting of snow
would be possible. Temperatures should only reach into the upper
40s to lower 50s Sunday in the wake of a cold front. Colder highs
in the 30s can be expected by Monday thanks to low cloud cover,
upslope flow and precipitation in the wake of a stronger cold
front. Tuesday should be the coldest day as snow persist in the
morning, along with continued cold advection and cloud cover
through the afternoon on the back side of the surface low. The
extent of moderation of this cold airmass will depend on how much
snow falls over western Kansas. Highs may only warm into the 30s
by next weekend if there is considerable snow cover. Overnight
lows would also be much colder over the snow cover. Although
official lows are in the teens Wednesday morning, if skies clear
with snow cover, then readings in the single digits or even close
to zero would be possible.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Saturday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 504 AM CST FRI JAN 29 2016
Gusty northwest winds will develop behind a weak cold front which
will cross southwest and north central Kansas between 15z and 21z
Friday. Based on the RAP, HRRR and 06z NAM BUFR soundings
sustained winds of near 20 knots can be expected for several hours
behind this front later this afternoon. An upper level disturbance
will cross the Central High plains during the afternoon and
evening hours. Moisture ahead of this upper level wave appears
limited and is forecast to be located at or above 12000ft AGL. The
gusty northwest winds will fall back to 10 knots or less after 00z
Saturday as a weak surface ridge axis builds into western Kansas
early tonight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 64 30 61 33 / 0 0 0 10
GCK 64 28 63 31 / 0 0 0 10
EHA 67 29 70 34 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 66 30 67 34 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 63 29 59 31 / 0 0 0 10
P28 67 35 61 38 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
236 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW QUASI ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE UPSTREAM WITH THE NEAREST OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH MONTANA AND WYOMING WITH A STRONG JETSTREAM AND REGION
OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND MAIN TROUGH AXIS. AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA...CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO.
MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TODAY...AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA. A DEEP DRY LAYER IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL PRECLUDE PRECIP CHANCES. SOME GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTING A
QUICKER FROPA BY MIDDAY WHICH WOULD HAMPER DAYTIME TEMPS. A
GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ACROSS OUR
CWA BEHIND THIS FRONT. NAM/GFS SHOW 35-45KT LLJ PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIDDAY OR THIS AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHTS TO APPROXIMATELY 800MB ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA WOULD
ALLOW GUSTS AROUND 40KT TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. BL WINDS AVERAGE
28-30KT...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH MAV/LAV GUIDANCE. HRRR IS
CURRENTLY THE FASTEST ON FRONTAL TIMING AND ACTUALLY SHOWS GUSTS
AROUND 50KT THIS MORNING. CONSIDERING THE UPSTREAM WINDS
ALOFT...CURRENT SHORTWAVE POSITION...AND PROJECTED MIXING HEIGHTS
THIS SEEMS HIGH AND I AM NOT COMFORTABLE LEANING TOWARDS THAT
SOLUTION. IN ANY CASE GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH APPEAR POSSIBLE IF NOT
LIKELY. RH VALUES IN OUR SOUTHWEST COULD BE AROUND 20
PERCENT...WHICH CONSIDERING THE WINDS CERTAINLY SUPPORTS
ELEVATED/NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WILL KEEP MENTION
IN HWO.
SATURDAY NIGHT...A MUCH STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY EVENING OR OVERNIGHT WITH PROJECTED 6HR PRESSURE RISES 8
TO 12 MB BETWEEN MODELS BEHIND THIS FRONT AND MUCH BETTER.
NAM/GFS 850MB WINDS BEHIND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE AROUND
40 KT AND CONSIDERING THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT I WOULD
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING AND INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT SUPPORTS
AT LEAST A PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MAIN
PRECIP SIGNAL TIED TO 850-500 MB FRONTOGENESIS. MODELS VARY ON
TIMING/POSITION WITH MANY MODELS NOW SHIFTING BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL
FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. I MATCHED THIS TREND WITH
THE CURRENT UPDATE.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...AIR MASS WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH H85 TEMPS
AROUND 0C THROUGH THE DAY...AND 2M TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
30S OR 40S (NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS). THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR FRONT AND PRECIP CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
EAST OF OUR CWA...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW IN OUR WEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS WEAK VORTICITY
CONTINUES TO ROTATE TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AHEAD OF DEVELOPING
LARGE SCALE TROUGH. MUCH BETTER CHANCES ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT FROM OUR SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND THE UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS
ALLOWS FOR INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH SW FLOW
OVERRIDING THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. WE COULD SEE 0.5 TO 1" SNOW
ACCUMULATION SUNDAY NIGHT IN OUR SOUTHWEST BEFORE SUNRISE BASED
ON CONSENSUS QPF TOTALS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION IS
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY AND FURTHER
EAST INTO IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
FROM COLORADO INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MONDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST NEAR KANSAS CITY ON TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE H5
LOW FOR THIS UPCOMING EVENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DIFFERENCES
OCCUR WITH THE TOTAL SNOWFALL. AT THIS TIME PREFER THE MORE
CONSERVATIVE AMOUNTS FROM THE ECMWF DUE MAINLY TO THE SHORT AMOUNT
OF TIME THE SYSTEM WILL ACTUALLY BE OVER THE REGION. MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF AN ALL SNOW EVENT. SNOW SHOULD BE
ONGOING MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN TAPERS OFF BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.
MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 25 TO 30 ON TUESDAY. MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S MONDAY NIGHT
AND THEN REMAIN IN THE TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 945 PM MST THU JAN 28 2016
FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MAIN WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE THE WINDS. FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH
16Z WINDS START THE PERIOD FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10KTS OR LESS
VEERING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH 16Z. FROM 17Z-22Z WINDS
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS AT LEAST
35KTS. LOCAL WIND GUST PROGRAM...MAV AND LAMP GUIDANCE WOULD
SUGGESTS GUSTS CLOSER TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 40KTS AT KGLD. WIND
GUSTS SUBSIDE QUITE A BIT BY 23Z THEN FROM 00Z THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD SUBSIDE AND BECOME VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT SPEEDS
OF 6KTS OR LESS.
JUST SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED IN GENERAL...MAY SEE SOME
CUMULUS CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE VERY LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
646 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL QUIET FOR THE MOST PART...WITH
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AND DRY CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY TO START...AND RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD. CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...AS A WEATHER SYSTEM SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...AND THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA
INITIALLY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TO MOST OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WILL
FURTHER REINFORCE OUR WARM CONDITIONS...AS WINDS STRENGTHEN FROM
THE SOUTH AND ADDITIONAL WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
STREAMS INTO THE REGION. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY EVENING...AND WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT ONLY RAIN
SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE AREA AS INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SHOULD EASILY MAX OUT AROUND 60...AS WE
WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A MID LATITUDE
CYCLONE THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES THE
NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS WILL ALSO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH MIN
VALUES EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S TONIGHT AND THE
UPPER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION TO START THE PERIOD WITH ANOTHER TROUGH
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE SFC...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION. A SFC WAVE
MAY BE MOVING ALONG THAT BOUNDARY OVER THE OH VALLEY REGION AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND OH VALLEY WILL DEPART EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE COLD
FRONT AN SFC WAVE ALSO PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD SETTLE SOUTH OF THE ARE BY MONDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY ON TUESDAY ALONG AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. A CLOSED LOW IS INITIALLY
EXPECTED TO BE OVER KS. THE BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
OVER THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY REGION AND TRACKS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE CLOSED
LOW THAT TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE CLOSED LOW OR SHORTWAVE WILL DEPART WELL TO THE NORTHEAST BY
WED EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE A BROAD TROUGH FROM THE PLAINS INTO
THE MS VALLEY REGION BY WED NIGHT INTO EARLY ON THURSDAY. THE AXIS
OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND APPALACHIAN
REGION BY LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY...WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE REGION. MODEL DIFFERENCE APPEAR AT THAT
POINT IN THE UPPER PATTERN ALTHOUGH BOTH HAVE A RIDGE MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE OUT OF THE ATLANTIC...BUT BOTH
HAVE TIMING AND HEIGHT DIFFERENCES WITH THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE
HUDSON AND JAMES BAY REGION AND SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND THEN TOWARD THE EASTERN
CONUS. THE LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW ROTATING ACROSS ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC AND IS SLOWER
AND SHARPER AND HAS MORE INTERACTION OR PHASING OF SHORTWAVES
MOVING FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE EASTERN CONUS LATE IN THE
PERIOD.
THE COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE EARLY IN THE PERIOD SHOULD BRING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH THE CHANCES
LINGERING LONGER IN THE SOUTH AS THE SFC WAVE MOVES BY. WITH THE
BOUNDARY PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT MAY IN FACT END UP
DRY...ALTHOUGH WE HELD ONTO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING.
MOISTURE SHOULD THEN INCREASE RATHER RAPIDLY AGAIN AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO THE OH VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION LIKELY JUST SHOWERS
DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BE POSSIBLY BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING ACROSS EASTERN KY. THEN...A ROBUST COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING LOW PASSING BY WELL NORTH AND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE AREA BY
LATE TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE
STRONG SHEER BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER
APPEARS TO BE GREATER TO THE WEST AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...EVEN IF THUNDER DOES NOT OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION
SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN POTENTIALLY STRONG MOMENTUM TO
THE SFC AS 850 MB WINDS SHOULD EASILY BE 50 KT PLUS SHORTLY AFTER
DARK AND THEN LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT. IN ADDITION...TIME
HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE NEARLY VERTICAL THETA E LINES...SO STRONG
WINDS GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO AND IN SOCIAL MEDIA AND THE WEATHERSTORY.
THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
NEARLY 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...FROM MIDWEEK
ON...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP
BELOW 0C BY WED EVENING OR WED NIGHT AND BE IN THE -5C TO -10C
RANGE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THUS...THE PERIOD SHOULD END
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
VFR LOOKS TO BE THE STORY FOR TONIGHT. THE ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE
LLWS WITH STRONG SW JET ENERGY ALOFT. GIVEN WE ARE LOOKING AT A 40
TO 50 KT 850 JET WENT WITH 40KT SHEAR AT 2 KFT. OTHERWISE SOME
HIGH DECK CLOUDS ARE STREAMING INTO THE REGION BASED ON OBS AND
SAT. TOWARD DAWN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PICKED UP BY SOME OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN SITES...HOWEVER HOW
MUCH THIS WHAT APPEARS TO BE ISENTROPIC LIFT CAN GET GOING IS THE
QUESTION. RIGHT NOW WENT WITH A SCT030 DECK GIVEN THE OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE AND THIS CAN BE NAILED DOWN FURTHER IN SUBSEQUENT
UPDATES. ALSO WHILE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AT THE SURFACE ON THE
FRONT END OF THE TAF PERIOD...ADDITIONAL MIXING WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THAT SAID EVEN GIVEN WE DO NOT MIX HIGH THE LLJ
WILL STILL BE IN THE 40 TO 50KT RANGE...THEREFORE WILL HAVE GUSTS
IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DJ
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
628 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 230 PM EST Sat Jan 30 2016
The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features generally zonal
upper-level flow across the Ohio Valley. A weak shortwave trough
currently passing through passing through the northern Plains will
be the main focus of the short term period.
A dry airmass coupled with strong southwesterly surface flow has led
to overachieving temperatures this afternoon. Many locations were
well into the 60s, with a few areas pushing into the upper 60s! Be
sure to get out and enjoy the rest of this afternoon if you can,
because things go downhill from here.
For tonight, attention will turn to the shortwave trough mentioned
above. While the synoptic forcing for ascent associated with this
feature will pass well to the north of the Ohio Valley, weak
isentropic lift will begin in response underneath a strong
subsidence inversion. This inversion should limit the depth of the
low-level moisture tonight, which should keep any precipitation
mainly in southern Indiana in the form of a few sprinkles or a very
light passing shower. Given the pressure gradient remaining up and
the increasing cloudiness, have upped low temperatures for tonight
which puts them in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Clouds will continue to increase through the day tomorrow as the
surface front associated with the passing trough approaches the Ohio
Valley. However, forecast soundings continue to depict the moisture
will remain rather shallow, so have backed off a bit on measurable
precip during the day tomorrow. Will have to keep an eye on just
how deep we are able to mix tomorrow afternoon as there will be
about 40 knots available at the base of the strong inversion. While
it doesn`t look to be Windy Advisory criteria at this time (40 mph),
would not be surprised to see some gusts of 30-35mph, especially if
we are able to see more sun than currently expected in the heat of
the afternoon. Given the cloud cover, highs will be slightly cooler
than today with upper 50s and low 60s expected.
The cold front will push into the area Sunday night. As mentioned
above, the deeper forcing for ascent will push well north of the
Ohio Valley. However, the moisture will become deep enough along
the surface boundary and the slab-like ascent should be enough to
foster a thin line of showers Sunday night. There is even enough
elevated instability to include a slight chance of thunder with this
activity overnight Sunday. Given 40 knots of flow just off the
surface, can`t rule out some gusty winds with the showers as they
push through the region, but think there will likely be enough of a
low-level inversion to keep any widespread gusts over 40mph at bay.
.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 245 PM EST Sat Jan 30 2016
The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature zonal flow aloft which will quickly transition to
southwesterly flow by Monday night as a strong PV anomaly digs into
the southern Plains. This disturbance will be the main focus of the
period as it may bring some strong to severe showers and
thunderstorms late Tuesday.
On Monday morning, the Ohio Valley will likely be bisected by a cold
front attempting to slide through the region. The 30/12Z NAM
remains the slowest with the fropa. This idea makes sense as the
front will be becoming more parallel to the upper-level flow aloft
as it backs in response to the digging PV anomaly in the southern
Plains. Therefore, have slowed down the exit of precipitation on
Monday, lingering pops through much of the day along and south of
the Ohio River.
Tuesday System
Attention will then turn to the west as the PV anomaly ejects out of
the southern Plains and races into the Great Lakes by Tuesday
night. A deepening surface low will move from KS into Michigan
Tuesday into Tuesday night, with a sharpening cold front to its
south.
Guidance continues to suggest that low-level moisture will pool
along this front Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night as a warm
front lifts north of the region. Convection will likely break out
along the cold front well to the west along the MS River Tuesday
afternoon, spreading into the Ohio Valley Tuesday evening into
Tuesday night. The upper-level kinematics/dynamics support evolution
into a QLCS with a meridionally-aligned upper-level jet streak and
strong height falls along the surface front. However, the main
question mark continues to remain instability. The operational GFS
continues to be very meager with its thermodynamic fields, painting
only about 100 J/kg of MUCAPE west of I-65 by 00Z Wed. However, the
NAM/ECMWF solutions are a bit more aggressive with anywhere from 200-
800 J/kg of MUCAPE along the boundary Tuesday evening. However,
these solutions are also slower with the fropa, bringing it through
when both models are showing the better instability really waning
and a low-level inversion building in. Given this thinking, really
like SPC`s current Day 4 outlook which paints the better
probabilities off to the south and west of the region and only
places portions of the LMK CWA in a Slight Risk. We will be
watching closely over the next couple of days as the higher-
resolution guidance should give us a better idea on the type of low-
level moisture return and potential instability this system will
have to work with as it moves through Tuesday evening into Tuesday
night.
We`ll see a colder and dry period from the middle to the end of the
week as Canadian high pressure filters in behind the cold front.
Temps in the 40s on Wednesday morning will find their way to the 30s
by late afternoon/early evening. Look for lows in the 20s Wednesday
night and Thursday night, with highs in the 30s on Thursday and
around 40 by Friday.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 625 PM EST Sat Jan 30 2016
Wind gusts have died down a this past hour, but winds just above the
surface should start cranking with sunset, and have kept in the low
level wind shear from the previous forecast. Based on RAP LLWS
forecast dropped the level to around 1000` for the 40 knot winds.
Next concern will be timing of MVFR cigs overnight. Models still
having a tough time with the onset of a cloud deck in response to
this low-level jet. RH fields from the GFS would show an earlier
start time, whereas most other models hold it off until the timing I
put in this set of TAFs. Winds should crank again from the south and
southwest Sunday morning, with gusts of 25-30 knots likely in the
afternoon under continued cloud skies. Rain showers will enter the
picture very late in the TAF period.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
528 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 528 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016
Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 116 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016
Main stories in the short deal first with the unseasonably mild
temperatures through Sunday...then the chances for showers with a
cold frontal passage Sunday night into early Monday.
Brisk south-southwest winds ahead of the front will ensure very
mild conditions for late January through Sunday. After highs well
into the 60s today, we may not see much of a diurnal fall off
tonight as southerly winds continue and high clouds begin to
increase. In fact, will probably challenge record high minimums
overnight...which are running in the mid 50s (55 at PAH and 53 at
EVV).
Clouds will in turn keep readings from getting too far out of
hand on Sunday, but readings will still make it back into the 60s
at most locations. Aforementioned cold front crosses the region
Sunday night into early Monday, bringing with it our next good chc
of showers. Not much mid/upper support with the front and low lvl
convergence looks meager, so should not be a big rain maker, and
am leaving thunder out at this point. High pressure will then
bring us a brief cool down and drying trend for the rest of the
day Monday, ahead of the next stronger system that will be
approaching the region Monday night.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 116 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016
Fairly high confidence on thunderstorms Tuesday. Medium confidence
on the rest for the extended.
There is the typical timing difference among the models. With the
GFS being a little faster than the ECMWF. However the Canadian GFS
and the ECMWF agree on Tuesday as favored time. Now looking at
instability in a layer 1000-850mb we picked up CAPE 150-200+ j/kg2.
Lifted index around negative 2 across the area with elevated
instability as well with K index readings in the 30s. We have 38
knots of shear from surface to 1 kilometer and 60 knots sfc to 2
kilometers. So this system has the potential for severe weather.
Most likely it will be in the form of a squall line. A tornado can
not be ruled out with this magnitude of shear and respectable
instability for this time of year. Also with the slower or later
arrival time it would bring the brunt of the storm through later in
the day than previously thought. This will only increase the chance
of severe weather. It definitely deserves close monitoring.
This system should exit the area overnight be east of us by sunrise
Wednesday morning. After Tuesday we remain dry with temperature very
close to normal for this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 528 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016
VFR conditions are expected this evening but deteriorate
through the period. Strong south to southwest flow brings in
moisture ahead of the approaching system, which gets trapped under
an inversion overnight. This results in MVFR cigs, and at times
IFR cigs, lasting well into the day Sunday. Southerly winds
decrease briefly to AOB 10 kts this evening, then increase to AOA
12 kts with gusts up to 20-22 kts overnight and continue until
Sunday evening.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION UPDATE...BP2
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...KH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
628 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 230 PM EST Sat Jan 30 2016
The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features generally zonal
upper-level flow across the Ohio Valley. A weak shortwave trough
currently passing through passing through the northern Plains will
be the main focus of the short term period.
A dry airmass coupled with strong southwesterly surface flow has led
to overachieving temperatures this afternoon. Many locations were
well into the 60s, with a few areas pushing into the upper 60s! Be
sure to get out and enjoy the rest of this afternoon if you can,
because things go downhill from here.
For tonight, attention will turn to the shortwave trough mentioned
above. While the synoptic forcing for ascent associated with this
feature will pass well to the north of the Ohio Valley, weak
isentropic lift will begin in response underneath a strong
subsidence inversion. This inversion should limit the depth of the
low-level moisture tonight, which should keep any precipitation
mainly in southern Indiana in the form of a few sprinkles or a very
light passing shower. Given the pressure gradient remaining up and
the increasing cloudiness, have upped low temperatures for tonight
which puts them in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Clouds will continue to increase through the day tomorrow as the
surface front associated with the passing trough approaches the Ohio
Valley. However, forecast soundings continue to depict the moisture
will remain rather shallow, so have backed off a bit on measurable
precip during the day tomorrow. Will have to keep an eye on just
how deep we are able to mix tomorrow afternoon as there will be
about 40 knots available at the base of the strong inversion. While
it doesn`t look to be Windy Advisory criteria at this time (40 mph),
would not be surprised to see some gusts of 30-35mph, especially if
we are able to see more sun than currently expected in the heat of
the afternoon. Given the cloud cover, highs will be slightly cooler
than today with upper 50s and low 60s expected.
The cold front will push into the area Sunday night. As mentioned
above, the deeper forcing for ascent will push well north of the
Ohio Valley. However, the moisture will become deep enough along
the surface boundary and the slab-like ascent should be enough to
foster a thin line of showers Sunday night. There is even enough
elevated instability to include a slight chance of thunder with this
activity overnight Sunday. Given 40 knots of flow just off the
surface, can`t rule out some gusty winds with the showers as they
push through the region, but think there will likely be enough of a
low-level inversion to keep any widespread gusts over 40mph at bay.
.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 245 PM EST Sat Jan 30 2016
The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature zonal flow aloft which will quickly transition to
southwesterly flow by Monday night as a strong PV anomaly digs into
the southern Plains. This disturbance will be the main focus of the
period as it may bring some strong to severe showers and
thunderstorms late Tuesday.
On Monday morning, the Ohio Valley will likely be bisected by a cold
front attempting to slide through the region. The 30/12Z NAM
remains the slowest with the fropa. This idea makes sense as the
front will be becoming more parallel to the upper-level flow aloft
as it backs in response to the digging PV anomaly in the southern
Plains. Therefore, have slowed down the exit of precipitation on
Monday, lingering pops through much of the day along and south of
the Ohio River.
Tuesday System
Attention will then turn to the west as the PV anomaly ejects out of
the southern Plains and races into the Great Lakes by Tuesday
night. A deepening surface low will move from KS into Michigan
Tuesday into Tuesday night, with a sharpening cold front to its
south.
Guidance continues to suggest that low-level moisture will pool
along this front Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night as a warm
front lifts north of the region. Convection will likely break out
along the cold front well to the west along the MS River Tuesday
afternoon, spreading into the Ohio Valley Tuesday evening into
Tuesday night. The upper-level kinematics/dynamics support evolution
into a QLCS with a meridionally-aligned upper-level jet streak and
strong height falls along the surface front. However, the main
question mark continues to remain instability. The operational GFS
continues to be very meager with its thermodynamic fields, painting
only about 100 J/kg of MUCAPE west of I-65 by 00Z Wed. However, the
NAM/ECMWF solutions are a bit more aggressive with anywhere from 200-
800 J/kg of MUCAPE along the boundary Tuesday evening. However,
these solutions are also slower with the fropa, bringing it through
when both models are showing the better instability really waning
and a low-level inversion building in. Given this thinking, really
like SPC`s current Day 4 outlook which paints the better
probabilities off to the south and west of the region and only
places portions of the LMK CWA in a Slight Risk. We will be
watching closely over the next couple of days as the higher-
resolution guidance should give us a better idea on the type of low-
level moisture return and potential instability this system will
have to work with as it moves through Tuesday evening into Tuesday
night.
We`ll see a colder and dry period from the middle to the end of the
week as Canadian high pressure filters in behind the cold front.
Temps in the 40s on Wednesday morning will find their way to the 30s
by late afternoon/early evening. Look for lows in the 20s Wednesday
night and Thursday night, with highs in the 30s on Thursday and
around 40 by Friday.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 625 PM EST Sat Jan 30 2016
Wind gusts have died down a this past hour, but winds just above the
surface should start cranking with sunset, and have kept in the low
level wind shear from the previous forecast. Based on RAP LLWS
forecast dropped the level to around 1000` for the 40 knot winds.
Next concern will be timing of MVFR cigs overnight. Models still
having a tough time with the onset of a cloud deck in response to
this low-level jet. RH fields from the GFS would show an earlier
start time, whereas most other models hold it off until the timing I
put in this set of TAFs. Winds should crank again from the south and
southwest Sunday morning, with gusts of 25-30 knots likely in the
afternoon under continued cloud skies. Rain showers will enter the
picture very late in the TAF period.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
418 PM EST FRI JAN 29 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST FRI JAN 29 2016
...WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...
STRONG SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY. DECENT JET
IS PRESENT OVER UPPER LAKES IN NW FLOW ALOFT. RIDGING HAS MOVED FM
CNTRL CONUS TO WESTERN GREAT LAKES BUT STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA. WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT TO THE SOUTH OF THAT SYSTEM WITH H85 TEMPS AT 12Z +10C AT ABR
AND -6C AT INL. SMALLER SHORTWAVE ON SOUTH EDGE OF TROUGH UPSTREAM
OVER DAKOTAS MOVES FM NORTHWEST MN THIS EVENING THEN ACROSS UPR
MICHIGAN AND LK SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT AND OVER QUEBEC BY MIDDAY
SATURDAY. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FOLLOWS SUIT...TRACKING ACROSS ONTARIO
AND PUSHING A WARM FRONT OVER UPPER LAKES. PRECIP FORMING OVER MN IS
TIED TO THE SHORTWAVE AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT PRECIP
TO INCREASE AS IT MOVES OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN LATE EVENING AND
OVER REST OF CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PTYPE WILL BE CONCERN AS RAP/HRRR/NAM SHOW PORTION OF WARM NOSE
ALOFT MAKES IT INTO SW UPR MICHIGAN. MAY BE WARM ENOUGH ALOFT 850-
800MB AOA +3C TO BRIEFLY TURN PRECIP TO FZRA OVER FAR WEST.
ELSEWHERE OVER WEST HALF...SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WARM LAYER
TEMPS RISE TO +1-2C. HEAVIEST QPF IS PLANNED FOR KEWEENAW. BLEND OF
SHORT TERM HIGH RES GUIDANCE POINTS TO 0.3+ INCHES OVER KEWEENAW
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER REST OF CWA...TAPERING TO LESS THAN 0.10
INCH OVER FAR SOUTH. WITH QPF HIGHEST OVER KEWEENAW AS THAT AREA IS
ALONG TRACK OF SHORTWAVE WENT WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVY FOR SNOW
AMOUNTS MAINLY 2-4 INCHES. IF HRRR OUTPUT IS CORRECT...ISOLD AMOUNTS
AROUND 5 INCHES WOULD NOT BE OUT OF QUESTION MOHAWK TO COPPER
HARBOR. OVER REST OF UPR MICHIGAN...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE 1-3
INCH RANGE. SPS WAS ISSUED TO COVERED SLIPPERY ROADS LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ON SATURDAY...WARM FRONT BLOWS THROUGH IN THE MORNING. MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS SCOURED OUT AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS. ANY PRECIP EARLY
ON WILL BE IN THE FORM OF FZDZ. UPSLOPE WEST WINDS MAY KEEP LOW
CLOUDS AND SOME DZ OVER KEWEENAW INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS...BUT
ELSEWHERE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE. TEMPS ALOFT...JUST
ALOFT AT 925-900MB ARE PRETTY WARM ON THE POSITIVE SIDE OF 0C. MIXING
TO 925MB SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS INTO LOW 40S FOR DOWNSLOPE AREAS. IF WE
CAN MIX TO 900MB...AROUND 3KFT...TEMPS MAY JUMP EVEN HIGHER. WILL ALL
DEPEND ON EXTENT OF SUNSHINE/MIXING. COULD BE BREEZY ON KEWEENAW WITH
WSW WINDS UP TO 20 MPH AND SOME HIGHER GUSTS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EST FRI JAN 29 2016
BEGINNING SAT NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL PUSH A SFC TROUGH INTO THE AREA. FORCING ASSOC WITH THE
SHORTWAVE COULD SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE CWA LATE EVENING
INTO OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY A MIX OF SNOW...RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES.
SUN/SUN NIGHT...THE GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE CONUS...RESULTING IN A
DEEPER WAVE TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS THE WRN
GREAT LAKES REGION. TO VARYING DEGREES...THE GFS HAS GENERALLY
INDICATED SUCH A SCENARIO FOR SEVERAL RUNS...AND NOW THE NAM HAS
JOINED SUIT THE LAST FEW RUNS. THE GFS IS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE NAM
BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW INTO THE AREA ALREADY ON SUN WHILE
THE NAM INDICATES A POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MAINLY SUN
NIGHT. BOTH MODELS WOULD SUPPORT A HEADLINE EVENT FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOWFALL AFFECTING MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD.
THE 12Z CANADIAN HAS NOW ALSO TRENDED DEEPER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW PER NAM AND GFS BUT THE 12Z ECMWF
REMAINS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH ONLY ADDING TO FCST UNCERTAINTY. WL
LIKELY NEED TO BUMP POPS UP A BIT TO REFLECT MODEL CONSENSUS TRENDS
OF STRONGER SYSTEM TRACKING FARTHER NORTH...BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL
DEFINITELY BE ONE TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS. IF MODELS
BEGIN TO CONVERGE ON DEEPER AND FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION...WILL LIKELY
NEED WSW HEADLINES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.
MON/MON NIGHT...AFTER ANY LINGERING PCPN ENDS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TO THE E...NW FLOW LOWERING 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO -12
TO -16C FOR AT LEAST A TIME WILL GENERATE SOME LIGHT LES UNDER A LOW
INVERSION.
TUE-WED...GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS STILL SHOWING MEANINGFUL
DIFFERENCES REGARDING TRACK OF A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
TO AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATER TUE/WED NEXT WEEK. A NUMBER
OF GFS ENSEMBLES AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES INCLUDING THE 12Z
OPERATIONAL GFS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH SFC
LOW TRACK THROUGH CENTRAL TO NORTHERN LOWER MI WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOW FOR PROBABLY AT LEAST THE CENTRAL
AND ERN COUNTIES OF UPPER MI. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 00/12Z
OPERATIONAL ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET ARE TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH AND
WEAKER WITH STORM SYSTEM...TRACKING IT THROUGH FAR SRN LOWER MI AND
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LAKE HURON WHICH WOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE SYSTEM
SNOW FARTHER SOUTH OF UPPER MI. THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY DEFINITELY
ARGUES FOR TAKING A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WHEN DETERMINING THE
POSSIBLE IMPACT OF THIS WINTER STORM FOR UPPER MI. IF THE OPERATIONAL
GFS AND THE MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS PAN OUT MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST ADVISORY TO POSSIBLE
WARNING LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS. FAIRLY FAST MOVEMENT OF STORM SYSTEM WILL
WORK TO KEEP SYSTEM FROM PRODUCING WIDESPREAD VERY HEAVY SNOW TOTALS.
IN ADDITION...UPSLOPING/POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT (850MB TEMPS FALL
FROM -10 TO -15C DURING THE ENHANCEMENT PHASE OFF THE LAKE) COULD ADD
TO SNOW TOTALS OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI. THIS WILL LIKELY BE CASE EVEN IF
THE WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH MODEL SOLUTION OF NON NCEP MODELS PAN
OUT.
THU-FRI...MODELS TREND TOWARD GENERALLY A DRIER AND COOLER PERIOD
FOR LATE NEXT WEEK WITH SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT IN WESTERLY WIND
SNOW BELTS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. MODELS HINT AT A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA WHICH MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
BUT AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING MORE THAN A DUSTING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST FRI JAN 29 2016
VFR WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS THIS AFTN THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SNOW ARCING AHEAD OF A SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT MAY AFFECT IWD AND
CMX. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS IN MINNESOTA...VSBY COULD DROP BLO 1SM
BUT WOULD BE QUITE BRIEF. AS SFC LOW MOVES TO NW ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT
A SWATH OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED JUST AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT...IN THE FORM OF SN/PL/FZRA AT IWD...SN/PL AT SAW AND MAINLY
SNOW AT CMX. IFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AS THIS PRECIP MOVES
THROUGH. LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AFTER MIXED PRECIP CHANGES BACK
TO SNOW AND AS THAT STEADY SNOW TAPERS THERE COULD BE FZDZ. THIS IS
ALSO WHEN CIGS WILL HAVE BEST CHANCE TO FALL BLO 010. ONCE THE WARM
FRONT BLOWS THROUGH...EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTN ON SAT ALONG WITH GUSTY SW-W WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST FRI JAN 29 2016
STRONG LOW TRACKING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WILL RESULT IN SOUTH WINDS 20-30 KTS...WITH GALES TO 35 KTS
OVER EAST HALF. GALE WARNING WAS ISSUED. WINDS DIMINISH SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN AS RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MAY BRING NORTH TO NORTHEAST
GALES SUN NIGHT INTO MON AND AGAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED. AT THIS TIME
BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD GALES WOULD BE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR MIZ001-003.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
LSZ266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
413 PM EST FRI JAN 29 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST FRI JAN 29 2016
...WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...
STRONG SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY. DECENT JET
IS PRESENT OVER UPPER LAKES IN NW FLOW ALOFT. RIDGING HAS MOVED FM
CNTRL CONUS TO WESTERN GREAT LAKES BUT STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA. WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT TO THE SOUTH OF THAT SYSTEM WITH H85 TEMPS AT 12Z +10C AT ABR
AND -6C AT INL. SMALLER SHORTWAVE ON SOUTH EDGE OF TROUGH UPSTREAM
OVER DAKOTAS MOVES FM NORTHWEST MN THIS EVENING THEN ACROSS UPR
MICHIGAN AND LK SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT AND OVER QUEBEC BY MIDDAY
SATURDAY. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FOLLOWS SUIT...TRACKING ACROSS ONTARIO
AND PUSHING A WARM FRONT OVER UPPER LAKES. PRECIP FORMING OVER MN IS
TIED TO THE SHORTWAVE AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT PRECIP
TO INCREASE AS IT MOVES OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN LATE EVENING AND
OVER REST OF CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PTYPE WILL BE CONCERN AS RAP/HRRR/NAM SHOW PORTION OF WARM NOSE
ALOFT MAKES IT INTO SW UPR MICHIGAN. MAY BE WARM ENOUGH ALOFT 850-
800MB AOA +3C TO BRIEFLY TURN PRECIP TO FZRA OVER FAR WEST.
ELSEWHERE OVER WEST HALF...SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WARM LAYER
TEMPS RISE TO +1-2C. HEAVIEST QPF IS PLANNED FOR KEWEENAW. BLEND OF
SHORT TERM HIGH RES GUIDANCE POINTS TO 0.3+ INCHES OVER KEWEENAW
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER REST OF CWA...TAPERING TO LESS THAN 0.10
INCH OVER FAR SOUTH. WITH QPF HIGHEST OVER KEWEENAW AS THAT AREA IS
ALONG TRACK OF SHORTWAVE WENT WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVY FOR SNOW
AMOUNTS MAINLY 2-4 INCHES. IF HRRR OUTPUT IS CORRECT...ISOLD AMOUNTS
AROUND 5 INCHES WOULD NOT BE OUT OF QUESTION MOHAWK TO COPPER
HARBOR. OVER REST OF UPR MICHIGAN...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE 1-3
INCH RANGE. SPS WAS ISSUED TO COVERED SLIPPERY ROADS LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ON SATURDAY...WARM FRONT BLOWS THROUGH IN THE MORNING. MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS SCOURED OUT AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS. ANY PRECIP EARLY
ON WILL BE IN THE FORM OF FZDZ. UPSLOPE WEST WINDS MAY KEEP LOW
CLOUDS AND SOME DZ OVER KEWEENAW INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS...BUT
ELSEWHERE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE. TEMPS ALOFT...JUST
ALOFT AT 925-900MB ARE PRETTY WARM ON THE POSITIVE SIDE OF 0C. MIXING
TO 925MB SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS INTO LOW 40S FOR DOWNSLOPE AREAS. IF WE
CAN MIX TO 900MB...AROUND 3KFT...TEMPS MAY JUMP EVEN HIGHER. WILL ALL
DEPEND ON EXTENT OF SUNSHINE/MIXING. COULD BE BREEZY ON KEWEENAW WITH
WSW WINDS UP TO 20 MPH AND SOME HIGHER GUSTS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EST FRI JAN 29 2016
BEGINNING SAT NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL PUSH A SFC TROUGH INTO THE AREA. FORCING ASSOC WITH THE
SHORTWAVE COULD SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE CWA LATE EVENING
INTO OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY A MIX OF SNOW...RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES.
SUN/SUN NIGHT...THE GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE CONUS...RESULTING IN A
DEEPER WAVE TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS THE WRN
GREAT LAKES REGION. TO VARYING DEGREES...THE GFS HAS GENERALLY
INDICATED SUCH A SCENARIO FOR SEVERAL RUNS...AND NOW THE NAM HAS
JOINED SUIT THE LAST FEW RUNS. THE GFS IS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE NAM
BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW INTO THE AREA ALREADY ON SUN WHILE
THE NAM INDICATES A POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MAINLY SUN
NIGHT. BOTH MODELS WOULD SUPPORT A HEADLINE EVENT FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOWFALL AFFECTING MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD.
THE 12Z CANADIAN HAS NOW ALSO TRENDED DEEPER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW PER NAM AND GFS BUT THE 12Z ECMWF
REMAINS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH ONLY ADDING TO FCST UNCERTAINTY. WL
LIKELY NEED TO BUMP POPS UP A BIT TO REFLECT MODEL CONSENSUS TRENDS
OF STRONGER SYSTEM TRACKING FARTHER NORTH...BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL
DEFINITELY BE ONE TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS. IF MODELS
BEGIN TO CONVERGE ON DEEPER AND FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION...WILL LIKELY
NEED WSW HEADLINES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.
MON/MON NIGHT...AFTER ANY LINGERING PCPN ENDS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TO THE E...NW FLOW LOWERING 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO -12
TO -16C FOR AT LEAST A TIME WILL GENERATE SOME LIGHT LES UNDER A LOW
INVERSION.
TUE-WED...GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS STILL SHOWING MEANINGFUL
DIFFERENCES REGARDING TRACK OF A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
TO AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATER TUE/WED NEXT WEEK. A NUMBER
OF GFS ENSEMBLES AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES INCLUDING THE 12Z
OPERATIONAL GFS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH SFC
LOW TRACK THROUGH CENTRAL TO NORTHERN LOWER MI WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOW FOR PROBABLY AT LEAST THE CENTRAL
AND ERN COUNTIES OF UPPER MI. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 00/12Z
OPERATIONAL ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET ARE TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH AND
WEAKER WITH STORM SYSTEM...TRACKING IT THROUGH FAR SRN LOWER MI AND
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY DEFINITELY
ARGUES FOR TAKING A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WHEN DETERMINING THE
POSSIBLE IMPACT OF THIS WINTER STORM FOR UPPER MI. IF THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND THE MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS PAN OUT
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST
ADVISORY TO POSSIBLE WARNING LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS. FAIRLY FAST
MOVEMENT OF STORM SYSTEM WILL WORK TO KEEP SYSTEM FROM PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD VERY HEAVY SNOW TOTALS. IN ADDITION...UPSLOPING/POSSIBLE
LAKE ENHANCEMENT (850MB TEMPS FALL FROM -10 TO -15C DURING THE
ENHANCEMENT PHASE OFF THE LAKE) COULD ADD TO SNOW TOTALS OVER NCNTRL
UPPER MI. THIS WILL LIKELY BE CASE EVEN IF THE WEAKER AND FARTHER
SOUTH MODEL SOLUTION OF NON NCEP MODELS PAN OUT.
THU-FRI...MODELS TREND TOWARD GENERALLY A DRIER AND COOLER PERIOD
FOR LATE NEXT WEEK WITH SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT IN WESTERLY WIND
SNOW BELTS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. MODELS HINT AT A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA WHICH MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
BUT AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING MORE THAN A DUSTING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST FRI JAN 29 2016
VFR WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS THIS AFTN THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SNOW ARCING AHEAD OF A SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT MAY AFFECT IWD AND
CMX. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS IN MINNESOTA...VSBY COULD DROP BLO 1SM
BUT WOULD BE QUITE BRIEF. AS SFC LOW MOVES TO NW ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT
A SWATH OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED JUST AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT...IN THE FORM OF SN/PL/FZRA AT IWD...SN/PL AT SAW AND MAINLY
SNOW AT CMX. IFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AS THIS PRECIP MOVES
THROUGH. LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AFTER MIXED PRECIP CHANGES BACK
TO SNOW AND AS THAT STEADY SNOW TAPERS THERE COULD BE FZDZ. THIS IS
ALSO WHEN CIGS WILL HAVE BEST CHANCE TO FALL BLO 010. ONCE THE WARM
FRONT BLOWS THROUGH...EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTN ON SAT ALONG WITH GUSTY SW-W WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST FRI JAN 29 2016
STRONG LOW TRACKING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WILL RESULT IN SOUTH WINDS 20-30 KTS...WITH GALES TO 35 KTS
OVER EAST HALF. GALE WARNING WAS ISSUED. WINDS DIMINISH SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN AS RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MAY BRING NORTH TO NORTHEAST
GALES SUN NIGHT INTO MON AND AGAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED. AT THIS TIME
BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD GALES WOULD BE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR MIZ001-003.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
LSZ266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
333 PM CST FRI JAN 29 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI JAN 29 2016
A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO USHER INCREASING
MOISTURE AND WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR REGION THIS EVENING. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF
INCREASING RADAR RETURNS IS CO-LOCATED WITH A CORRIDOR OF MAX
850PHA TEMPS AND PWATS EXCEEDING A HALF INCH OVER NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. THE AREA OF FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/VORT MAX AND PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD EAST OVER THE
NORTHLAND THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SHORT TERM FOCUS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE AND LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT. ANTICIPATING SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO RISE
A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE EVENING...DUE TO THE STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION. HOWEVER...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IF TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN FOR MOST AREAS...OR WILL REMAIN MIX
WITH SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FOR THE EVENING. LATEST NAMBUF SOUNDINGS
SHOW PROFILES SUGGEST A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF A WINTRY MIX LATE
TODAY...BEFORE DEEPLY SATURATING AND SUPPORTING ALL SNOW AFTER
1000PM-MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THIS TIME THE MAIN
THREAT FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS IS FROM THE TWIN PORTS...SOUTH
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR...AND EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. PRIMARILY SNOW...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH
OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD ZONES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI JAN 29 2016
.LONG TERM...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS SHAPING UP TO BE QUITE ACTIVE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND...WITH A COUPLE MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN THE BEST
AGREEMENT...BRINGING THE SURFACE LOW TO JUST SOUTH OF GREEN BAY BY
00Z MONDAY ON BOTH MODELS. THE ECMWF IS DEFINITELY THE OUTLIER WITH
THIS SYSTEM. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SE 1/2 TO 2/3 OF THE
CWA...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A WINTRY MIX FOLLOWED BY
SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. COULD SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION
DURING THAT PERIOD...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH IN NE MN...AND 1 TO 3
INCHES IN NW WI. THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND
WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY. THE BIG STORY FOR THE EXTENDED TIME
PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW AND INTENSE
WINDS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER
CONSENSUS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS OUR NW WI AREA. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LEAST
SNOW TO NW WI...WHILE THE GFS BRINGS THE MOST. WILL CONTINUE TO HIT
NW WI HARDEST...ALTHOUGH IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
BE EVEN A BIT SOUTH OF OUR CWA. STILL A BIT TOO EARLY TO TELL FOR
SURE...BUT A MAJOR WINTER STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO COME CLOSE TO
OUR CWA...IF NOT INTO A PORTION OF OUR CWA. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF WISCONSIN. GENERALLY SMALL CHANCES
OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS ON
SUNDAY...TO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CST FRI JAN 29 2016
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE NORTHLAND THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND A COUPLE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES WILL PROCEED STRONG WAA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH A STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR...WE COULD SEE A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEEING THE ICY PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION THEN DECREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST. AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN...WE WILL SEE MVFR
CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE COMMON...WITH IFR POSSIBLE AS WELL. BY
SATURDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL TAKE OVER...WITH SOME MVFR
SLIDING ALONG THE KINL AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 28 38 25 32 / 70 10 20 20
INL 29 35 22 26 / 60 10 0 10
BRD 28 38 25 31 / 70 10 10 20
HYR 26 40 28 34 / 70 10 40 50
ASX 28 43 28 34 / 70 10 30 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
958 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 255 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS TROF MOVING THROUGH WESTERN DAKOTAS.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING MONTANA/WYOMING...KNOCKING DOWN
RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS. SOME ECHOES SHOWING UP ON KUDX
RADAR...BUT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING HAVE 6-10K
CLOUD BASE. SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH BEST
Q-G FORCING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT -SHRA/-SHSN. MAY BE A FEW LOW LYING LOCATIONS
WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURE WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE BIT
OF ICING.
ANOTHER MILD DAY TODAY...BUT NOT WAS WARM AS YESTERDAY GIVING WEAK
LOW LEVEL CAA. BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS OF
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. 08Z HRRR/06Z RAP SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR A
2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS....ESPECIALLY FOR RAPID CITY
AREA. 06Z NAM IS NOT AS STRONG AS HRRR/RAP. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH...BUT IF HRRR/RAP ARE CORRECT GUSTS OF 50MPH
POSSIBLE.
DRY TONIGHT...WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE ROCKIES SATURDAY.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND LIGHT RA/SN FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 255 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...WITH WEAK
RIDGE CROSSING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S.
WEST COAST TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY INTO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM AS IT
CROSSES THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MUCH OF THE PRECIP SKIRTING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CWA...WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SD. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. AS
THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST...WESTERN RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE
ROCKIES...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 956 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL SD WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST
TO EAST. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DECREASE
THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT AND SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING.
NEXT UPPER WAVE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY AND
THE BLACK HILLS SATURDAY MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
LIGHT SNOW...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...POJORLIE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
430 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 255 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS TROF MOVING THROUGH WESTERN DAKOTAS.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING MONTANA/WYOMING...KNOCKING DOWN
RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS. SOME ECHOES SHOWING UP ON KUDX
RADAR...BUT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING HAVE 6-10K
CLOUD BASE. SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH BEST
Q-G FORCING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT -SHRA/-SHSN. MAY BE A FEW LOW LYING LOCATIONS
WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURE WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE BIT
OF ICING.
ANOTHER MILD DAY TODAY...BUT NOT WAS WARM AS YESTERDAY GIVING WEAK
LOW LEVEL CAA. BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS OF
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. 08Z HRRR/06Z RAP SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR A
2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS....ESPECIALLY FOR RAPID CITY
AREA. 06Z NAM IS NOT AS STRONG AS HRRR/RAP. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH...BUT IF HRRR/RAP ARE CORRECT GUSTS OF 50MPH
POSSIBLE.
DRY TONIGHT...WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE ROCKIES SATURDAY.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND LIGHT RA/SN FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 255 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...WITH WEAK
RIDGE CROSSING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S.
WEST COAST TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY INTO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM AS IT
CROSSES THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MUCH OF THE PRECIP SKIRTING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CWA...WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SD. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. AS
THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST...WESTERN RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE
ROCKIES...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
QUICK MOVING UPPER WAVE WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
INTO NORTHEASTERN WY...PUSHING INTO WESTERN SD THIS MORNING.
AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE PRECIPITATION...WITH
LOCAL IFR CEILINGS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY MORNING...INCREASING TO 20 TO
30 KNOTS ACROSS THE SD PLAINS BY LATE IN THE MORNING. WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY AFTERNOON.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
255 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 255 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS TROF MOVING THROUGH WESTERN DAKOTAS.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING MONTANA/WYOMING...KNOCKING DOWN
RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS. SOME ECHOES SHOWING UP ON KUDX
RADAR...BUT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING HAVE 6-10K
CLOUD BASE. SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH BEST
Q-G FORCING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT -SHRA/-SHSN. MAY BE A FEW LOW LYING LOCATIONS
WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURE WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE BIT
OF ICING.
ANOTHER MILD DAY TODAY...BUT NOT WAS WARM AS YESTERDAY GIVING WEAK
LOW LEVEL CAA. BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS OF
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. 08Z HRRR/06Z RAP SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR A
2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS....ESPECIALLY FOR RAPID CITY
AREA. 06Z NAM IS NOT AS STRONG AS HRRR/RAP. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH...BUT IF HRRR/RAP ARE CORRECT GUSTS OF 50MPH
POSSIBLE.
DRY TONIGHT...WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE ROCKIES SATURDAY.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND LIGHT RA/SN FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 255 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...WITH WEAK
RIDGE CROSSING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S.
WEST COAST TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY INTO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM AS IT
CROSSES THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MUCH OF THE PRECIP SKIRTING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CWA...WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SD. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. AS
THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST...WESTERN RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE
ROCKIES...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 255 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
QUICK MOVING UPPER WAVE WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS INTO NORTHEASTERN WY...PUSHING INTO WESTERN SD THIS MORNING.
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE PRECIPITATION.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY
MORNING...INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE SD PLAINS BY LATE
IN THE MORNING. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
253 AM EST FRI JAN 29 2016
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A
TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD INTO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA AT THE SURFACE. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES LIGHT RETURNS
ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA.
HOWEVER...THE CLOSEST OBSERVATION SITE REPORTING PRECIPITATION IS
WELL TO THE NORTH IN WEST VIRGINIA. MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA IS
LIMITED WITH PW VALUES GENERALLY AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH. THE
BEST LIFT IS TO THE NORTH WITH THE PVA. THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED
POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS MORNING. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND THE HIGH TERRAIN ALONG THE
TENNESSEE/NORTH CAROLINA LINE. EXPECT THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR SO WITH
AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF AN INCH BEING ON THE HIGH SIDE.
THE TROUGH QUICKLY RACES OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE BRIEF WINDOW FOR
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT IS FOCUSED MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
LIFT FROM NORTHWEST FLOW COULD KEEP CLOUDS IN LONGER ACROSS
NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND DUE TO THIS EXPECT
THESE LOCATIONS WILL STAY IN THE 30S THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FURTHER TO
THE SOUTHWEST...AMPLE SUNSHINE AND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE
AREA. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL
SETUP IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IN THE 20S AND 30S.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...SHIFTING LOW LEVEL FLOW SOUTHERLY. THE RESULT WILL BE A
QUIET...DRY AND WARM SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WILL TRANSITION INTO AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE LATER HALF OF THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH THERE DOES CONTINUE TO BE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...ESPECIALLY IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF APPROACHING
WEATHER SYSTEMS. FIRST SYSTEM OF CONCERN IS A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE SHOULD ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT FOR A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS TO
MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURE PROFILE INDICATES WARM CONDITIONS FOR
BASICALLY AN ALL RAIN EVENT. MAIN SYSTEM OF CONCERN THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WILL BE A STRONGER COLD FRONT PROGGED INTO THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DEEP MOISTURE...AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
WILL AID DEVELOPMENT OF A SOLID LINE OF CONVECTION. INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED THOUGH SPEED SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY THE CONVECTION. FAVORABLE
PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF UPPER JET WILL ADD TO ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AND COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ANY STORM THAT
IS ABLE TO TAP INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT COULD BECOME
STRONG...POSSIBLY SEVERE. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG...BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE FRONT SHOULD
PULL OUT OF THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT WRAP AROUND FLOW FROM
THE ACCOMPANYING UPPER LOW SHOULD BRING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WITH THE
COOLER AIR MOVING IN...ANY LINGERING RAIN WILL EVENTUAL CHANGE OF
LIGHT SNOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 48 32 62 43 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 44 29 59 41 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 44 29 59 41 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 36 23 55 35 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
MA/MJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
510 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION
TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
MANY ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH TODAY WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION
TYPES LATER TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON CLIMBED INTO
THE 40S AT MOST PLACES. THE LAST CHECK OF ROAD TEMPERATURES
WERE WELL INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50. ALSO...THE OTHER MAJOR
PROBLEM WILL BE IF THERE WILL BE PRECIPITATION WILL IT WILL
GET COLD ENOUGH FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION.
MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATER TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST HRRRR AND RAP MODELS DO NOT PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION INTO THIS REGION WHERE IT WOULD GET COLD ENOUGH
FOR FREEZING RAIN...SLEET OR SNOW. CONTEMPLATED ISSUING A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MARATHON UP THROUGH NORTHERN MARINETTE
COUNTY...BUT THE FACT THE MESO MODELS DO NOT PRODUCE PRECIPITATION
MADE ME HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY. IF THE GFS/ECMWF IS
CORRECT...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD LATE TONIGHT FOR SOME FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET OR SNOW THAT COULD MAKE ROADS SLICK.
THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
WENT WITH THE THREE HOURLY TEMPERATURES ON GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
AND CLOSER TO THE MAV GUIDANCE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
30S AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TRACKING AWAY FROM WISCONSIN
SUNDAY NIGHT...ENDING PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST AS
PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA BY
THE EVENING HOURS. NORTH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW WILL BRING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SNOWBELT REGION ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE LOW HEADING
FOR THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE PRIOR 00Z
MODEL RUNS...THE 12Z SUITE OF RUNS HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW. THE LONE EXCEPTION IS
THE VERY SLOW NAM WHICH HAS MOST OF THE CWA DRY THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN EVEN THE PREVIOUSLY SLOWER CANADIAN HAS LATCHED
ONTO THIS FASTER SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS THE HEAVY SNOW INTO THE
AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WILL PUT SOME RESOLUTION INTO THE
TUESDAY POP GRID AND GO WITH LOWER POPS IN THE MORNING...AND RAMP
THEM UP IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...THE VERY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AS MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW GETS GOING ACROSS THE
REGION.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS TRACK THE LOW A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN
YESTERDAYS RUNS...TRACKING THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL LAKE
MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN OVER LAKE HURON INTO CANADA ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WESTWARD JOG MAKES SENSE AS THE NORTHERN STREAM
LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO PULL THE SOUTHERN
STREAM LOW CLOSER WEST. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING
THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING...HOWEVER WITH A RELATIVELY DECENT
CONSENSUS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE DRY SLOT LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST OFF TO THE EAST
ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CONTINUED BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
THE LOW RAPIDLY TRACKS AWAY FROM THE AREA TOWARDS WESTERN QUEBEC
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH THE CONTINUED TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THIS WILL LIKELY MAKE SNOW REMOVAL AND TRAVEL DIFFICULT
THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION A NORTH NORTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT WILL TURN ON THE LAKE SUPERIOR SNOW BELT
REGION...BOOSTING TOTALS ACROSS THAT AREA ON WEDNESDAY. OVERALL IT
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE DRY SLOT
COULD STILL PLAY A ROLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER
WEST...WHICH IS A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE NORTHERN
STREAM LOW. THE DRY SLOT WOULD TEND TO HOLD DOWN
TOTALS...THEREFORE THERE IS RECITANCE IN PUTTING MORE SOLID
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DOWN AT THIS JUNCTURE.
BEHIND THE LOW A COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES PLUNGE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS BELOW ZERO FOR
THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEKEND. SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND LAKE EFFECT WILL
BRING SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES TO THE REGION
FOR THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER THESE
SYSTEMS WILL HAVE MEAGER MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL DURING THE LATE PART OF THE EXTENDED IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 452 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW TO THE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FOR THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE
REGION...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN. TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY...A MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND
SNOW IS EXPECTED DEPENDING ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND HOW
QUICK THESE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES COOL OFF LATER TONIGHT.
THE PRECIPITATION COULD POSSIBLY STAY JUST SOUTH OF KRHI IF SOME
OF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END
BY MID AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...HOWEVER
LOW CIGS SHOULD PRESIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY IN ALL THE TAF
AREAS EXCEPT OVER THE NORTH WHERE SOME CLEARING AND VFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......ALLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
239 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
A warm front will lift north through the area this morning, followed
by a weak surface low progressing from SW to NE across northwestern
IL. Clouds will increase and thicken this morning, with spotty
showers possible during the day. High res models are indicating very
little in the way of coverage and rain amounts in general, so have
reduced the morning PoPs to slight chance, and reduced the overall
rain chance numbers this afternoon as well. Later this afternoon,
eastern areas may have a little better chance of rain as the cold
front pushes east toward the Indiana border and lift is enhanced,
per model omega fields.
High temps will still climb well above normal, as south winds fuel
low level warm advection behind the warm frontal passage. High temps
should reach into the 50s in most areas, with low 60s possible from
Effingham to Lawrenceville.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
Main focus continues to revolve around the Tuesday storm system.
Initial wave will be coming onshore of the Pacific Northwest
shortly, and will dig significantly toward southern California this
evening before tracking east. Main surface low expected to develop
in the vicinity of Las Vegas later today and track east to along the
Kansas/Oklahoma border Monday evening. The model guidance is
relatively clustered along the track into southeast Kansas by
Tuesday morning. At this point, the NAM diverges significantly and
tracks the low into south central Illinois by Tuesday evening, while
the remaining guidance is favoring more of a track in the Quincy-
Chicago corridor. Thus, the NAM was discarded. Some further track
fluctuations are possible as the wave starts to get sampled by the
upper air network later today, but a more northern track has been
persisting the last 3 model runs.
Forecast soundings continue to favor a rain/snow/sleet mix in the
onset of precipitation late Monday evening across the far northern
CWA, before transitioning to an all-rain scenario between 3-6 am.
Some minor accumulations of snow and sleet are possible north of a
Galesburg to Bloomington line by sunrise. As the warm front lifts
northward, focus shifts to the warm sector and potential
thunderstorm development. Latest SPC Day3 outlook has a marginal
risk of severe storms as far north as Champaign/Danville and a
slight risk up to around Newton. GFS continues to maintain a few
hundred J/kg of MUCAPE and some very significant 0-6km shear (75-80
knots) especially over the eastern CWA. The ECMWF is not quite as
far north with the surface low (Kankakee vs. Rockford at 6 pm
Tuesday), and keeps more of the better parameters a bit further
south. Thus, will mainly limit thunder mention to areas south of a
Shelbyville to Danville line. With the front approaching the Indiana
border by 6 pm, left the thunder mention out for the evening.
Post-front, concern becomes with the dry slot and the deformation
zone that extends southwest from the low. Went with the slower ECMWF
in bringing in the dry slot, and went with healthy chance PoP`s in
the evening, but tailed them back overnight in most areas. The
northern CWA may be scraped by the deformation zone as the system
pulls away, so chance PoP`s were kept there overnight. A transition
to snow will occur there as the precipitation ends, but little
accumulation is expected.
The remainder of the forecast period will be dominated by deep long
wave troughs moving through the central U.S. into the weekend. This
will bring periods of cooler conditions. The GFS would suggest a
more substantial cold snap late in the weekend, but with the
strength of the associated upper low still in question, will keep
temperatures a tad below seasonal normals.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016
Warm front located across central Illinois will continue to lift
through the remainder of the forecast area overnight. Light east
to southeast winds north of the boundary will become southerly
and increase in speed to 10 to 15 kts. Forecast soundings through
most of the evening suggest borderline wind shear conditions at
SPI, DEC and CMI from about 07z-11z with about 40 kts forecast
around around 1500 feet AGL. With surface winds expected to
increase at these locations, will hold off mentioning at this
point unless surface winds remain less than 10 kts. Main forecast
concern will be the development of lower cigs/vsbys with scattered
light rain or drizzle moving in during Sunday morning. The last
several runs of the HRRR suggested areas from DEC to BMI east thru
CMI will have the higher probabilities for seeing at least low end
MVFR cigs with BMI possibly dropping to IFR for a time Sunday
morning before the remainder of the TAF sites cigs and vsbys
lower.
Low pressure will track into northeast Illinois late in the day
which will help push a cold front southeast into our area by
the end of the day. Surface winds will be rather gusty out of
the south ahead of the front with speeds in the 12 to 17 kt
range with a few gusts around 23 kts at times. Further west
towards PIA, the winds will be lighter out of the south into
early afternoon before a cold front shifts the winds into the
west and northwest after 21z with speeds of 10 to 15 kts. The
cold front should push east of CMI by 02z with drier air moving
in behind the weather system which will allow for a gradual
improvement in cigs Sunday evening.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1108 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016
Temperatures have dropped off much quicker than expected with
several areas across the north half of the forecast area already
at or below expected overnight lows. Sent out an update earlier
this evening to address the cooler temperatures across the north
with a warm front positioned along or just north of I-70 at this
hour. This boundary is expected to lift north later this evening
with southerly winds increasing as well as the front shifts north.
This should put a halt to any additional drop off in temperature
with readings actually slowly rising overnight.
Fairly thick cirrus shield across the area with the colder cloud
tops on IR satellite data lifting just to our northwest associated
with another fast moving shortwave over the central Plains this
evening. This upper wave and associated surface low pressure will
track across central Illinois on Sunday bringing the threat for
some scattered light showers along with unseasonably mild temps for
one more day. With the additional changes made to the grids will
send out another ZFP update by 900 pm.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016
One weak wave is moving through Central Illinois this afternoon with
little more than high and mid clouds associated with it. Clouds
have not impeded the warm up, however. General WAA across the
region is resulting in temps well over normals for late January.
This trend overnight will keep the temps above freezing with mostly
southerly winds all night. Clouds may end up increasing towards
morning as another weak surface low moves SW to NE just NE of ILX by
sunrise.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016
Two systems on track to affect central IL through Wednesday. First
will be a weak system producing a chance for light rain showers and
a return to cooler temperatures Sunday. Second will be a strong
storm system producing significant winter weather from the central
Plains through the Great Lakes Region and a potential for severe
thunderstorms from the lower Mississippi to lower Ohio valley
regions...including southeast Illinois. Models have been relatively
consistent last several runs tracking the center of this low through
central or NW Illinois Tuesday afternoon-evening...delineating a
winter weather threat to the northwest and a severe thunderstorm
threat to the southeast. Although the uncertainty with this track
has changed little with this morning`s 12Z model cycle...the extent
of severe thunderstorm threat in SE Illinois bears watching, as well
as the winter weather threat not far off to the NW.
The first system on Sunday will push a cold front southeastward
across central Illinois beginning Sunday morning and reaching
southeast Illinois Sunday evening. Main upper level forcing looks to
pass by to the north, while strong low level moisture flux, weak
warm advection, and a weak upper level wave Sunday evening look to
target southeast Illinois. As a result...only expecting chances for
light rain...lingering latest in southeast Illinois. Temperatures
should max out only in the mid to upper 40s NW of the Illinois River
as the cold front should pass through by noon...while temperatures
as high as 60 degrees may be reached south of I-70 as the front
arrives in the late afternoon. Conditions should be dry across
central and SE Illinois by midnight with min temperatures Sunday
night reaching from the upper 20s at Galesburg to around 40 in
Lawrenceville.
Monday...the approaching strong storm system will have it`s surface
low centered from northeast New Mexico to the Oklahoma panhandle
area...while central and SE Illinois see quiet weather under high
pressure with light winds, some mid and high clouds, and mild highs
in the 40s.
The heavier precipitation looks to hold off through Monday night as
the low crosses Oklahoma...however temperatures should be cold
enough from around the I-74 corridor northward that some brief light
snow, sleet, and freezing rain are possible early Tuesday morning
before significant warming of lower levels takes place following a
warm frontal passage Tuesday morning.
The heaviest precipitation associated with this system for central
IL is on track for the daytime period Tuesday...largely as a period
of moderate to heavy wind-driven rain totaling around 3/4 inch and
some embedded thunderstorms from Springfield to Lawrenceville
southward by noon...spreading northward as far as a Jacksonville to
Champaign line eastward through the afternoon. Sustained winds may
be over 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph. The latest SPC Day 4 outlook
has inched the slight risk of severe storms northward a bit into the
Flora-Lawrenceville corridor, and will need to monitor this
potential as there is a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE progged, and the
GFS indicates 0-6km bulk shear of well over 75 knots Tuesday
afternoon. Highs Tuesday expected to range from 42 in Galesburg to
59 in Lawrenceville.
For Tuesday night, both the GFS and ECMWF show a good portion of the
central IL forecast area coming under the influence of the dry slot
before a post-cold frontal upper wave traverses central IL Wednesday
morning...producing a chance for light snow. However, due to timing
uncertainty this far out, have continued to include a chance for
precipitation through this period in afternoon forecast. Stiff 20-30
mph winds shifting to westerly will accompany this period. Snow
accumulations continue to look low for central Illinois provided the
current expected low track continues. At this time...expecting
accumulations under 1 inch in central IL...and mainly north of I-72
Significant snow accumulations are a strong possibility to the
northwest of the low track...which looks at this time to track from
north central Missouri to northwest Illinois Tuesday afternoon.
Temperatures the remainder of the week will feature surges of colder
air coming down into the Midwest. Some uncertainty remains in the
exact temperatures...however the current blend of extended range
models incorporates high temperatures in the mid 20s to upper 30s
each day Wednesday through Saturday, and lows in the teens to low
20s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016
Warm front located across central Illinois will continue to lift
through the remainder of the forecast area overnight. Light east
to southeast winds north of the boundary will become southerly
and increase in speed to 10 to 15 kts. Forecast soundings through
most of the evening suggest borderline wind shear conditions at
SPI, DEC and CMI from about 07z-11z with about 40 kts forecast
around around 1500 feet AGL. With surface winds expected to
increase at these locations, will hold off mentioning at this
point unless surface winds remain less than 10 kts. Main forecast
concern will be the development of lower cigs/vsbys with scattered
light rain or drizzle moving in during Sunday morning. The last
several runs of the HRRR suggested areas from DEC to BMI east thru
CMI will have the higher probabilities for seeing at least low end
MVFR cigs with BMI possibly dropping to IFR for a time Sunday
morning before the remainder of the TAF sites cigs and vsbys
lower.
Low pressure will track into northeast Illinois late in the day
which will help push a cold front southeast into our area by
the end of the day. Surface winds will be rather gusty out of
the south ahead of the front with speeds in the 12 to 17 kt
range with a few gusts around 23 kts at times. Further west
towards PIA, the winds will be lighter out of the south into
early afternoon before a cold front shifts the winds into the
west and northwest after 21z with speeds of 10 to 15 kts. The
cold front should push east of CMI by 02z with drier air moving
in behind the weather system which will allow for a gradual
improvement in cigs Sunday evening.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1200 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
ONE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY BRINGING SOME RAIN
TO THE AREA. A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE IN ON TUESDAY BRINGING RAIN
AND PERHAPS SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN
ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A RETURN TO SEASONABLE WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM.../REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1002 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
UPDATE...TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S (LOWER THAN
EXPECTED) OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS. MOST AREAS ARE PROBABLY NEAR THEIR
CURRENT LOWS FOR TONIGHT AND AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT WILL
CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN A SLOW RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN CHANGES
TONIGHT WILL BE WITH FINE TUNING TEMPERATURES.
DECIDED TO LEAVE IN CHANCE OF SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENE
IS LOW THAT ANY OF THIS WILL HAPPEN PER NEW RAP WHICH IS SLOWER IN
SATURATING THE LOW LEVELS LATE TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES AS WELL...AND THUS EXPECT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. WILL TREND SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY.
MODELS HINT AT POSSIBILITY OF RAIN BEFORE 12Z...BUT FORCING JUST
DOES NOT LOOK DECENT ENOUGH FOR MEASURABLE RAIN. WILL INCLUDE
MENTION OF SPRINKLES THOUGH.
WENT WITH A BLEND OF MODELS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAM IS A SLOW AND
FARTHER SOUTH OUTLIER WITH A SURFACE LOW ON TUESDAY. NAM IS NOT
USUALLY GREAT AT THAT FAR OUT IN ITS FORECAST ANYWAY. WILL IGNORE IT
AND GO WITH A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF.
WEAK...BUT INCREASING...LIFT WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
AREA WITH WARM ADVECTION. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE BEST FORCING WILL
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT AND
BETTER UPPER SUPPORT MOVE IN.
THUS WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY /BUT LIKELY
FAR NORTHWEST CLOSEST TO THE COLD FRONT/...WITH HIGHEST POPS LATE
AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY EVENING WENT WITH LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOWERED POPS DURING THE NIGHT AS FRONT
EXITS.
MONDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH CENTRAL INDIANA IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. AS
A WARM FRONT BEGINS ITS APPROACH OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...WENT LOW
POPS FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. WENT CHANCE
POPS AS THIS MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA BY 00Z. STRONG WIND FIELDS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
IN PLENTY OF MOISTURE. WENT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC SYSTEM AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO GET SOME STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS /MAINLY SOUTH/
LATE IN THE DAY.
BRIEFLY LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWER CLOUDS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY DID NOT GO AS WARM AS MAV MOS WOULD SUGGEST. HOWEVER...AS
SEEN BY THE TEMPERATURES TODAY...IF SOME SUN DOES BREAK OUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER. GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND AFTER
SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 210 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING INTO THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA AND SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. VERY IMPRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM SW-
NE OVER THE AREA WITH 120 KTS AT H5 AND 160 KT AT H25 AT 03/06Z
THROUGH 03/12Z TIME PERIOD. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW 60-70 KT
LOW LEVEL JET JUST AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT. SPC DAY4
OUTLOOK HAS 15 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA /MAINLY SOUTH OF A HUF - DAY LINE/.
GIVEN THOSE WINDS...WOULD EXPECT STRONG WINDS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WEATHER WILL RETURN TO MORE FEBRUARY-LIKE
WEATHER. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON
THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE WEATHER WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES MORE
NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...BUT LOW CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AFTER SUN 09Z AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. CEILINGS WILL BE
RIGHT AROUND THE VFR/MVFR MARK AT THAT POINT...DETERIORATING
FURTHER TO MVFR AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD
TAF SITES BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS AT THAT POINT WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR DURING HEAVIER
RAIN THROUGH END OF TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
EARLY THIS MORNING AND START GUSTING UP TO 21 KTS BY MID MORNING.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...AND GUSTS WILL
TAPER OFF BETWEEN SUN 00-03Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/JH
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....DWM
AVIATION...TDUD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
311 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
EARLY THIS MORNING A SFC BOUNDARY LAY ACROSS THE CWA. THIS PSEUDO
WARM FRONT/INVERTED TROF EXTENDED FROM A SFC LOW LOCATED OVER SE
KS AND W MO. LIGHT SPRINKLES AND EVEN SOME RAIN HAD BEEN REPORTED
EARLIER WITH A FGEN BAND AS IT ADVECTED NORTH THROUGH THE CWA.
THIS LOW AND ATTENDANT BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA AS A COLD FRONT AND LEAD TO LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE COVERAGE OF POPS
TODAY WITH A POST FRONT FGEN BAND AND AN ADVANCING SFC LOW THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND WILL RESULT IN RAIN FALLING ACROSS
THE AREA. MOST OF THIS RAIN SHOULD FALL ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ZONES...AIDING IN MELTING REMAINING SNOW.
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE HINTING AT TWO AREAS OF QPF THAT WILL
AFFECT THE AREA THIS AM AND THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LOOKS
LIKE THE SPECTRAL...GRIDDED AND CAM MODELS ALL SUGGEST QPF WITH A
POST FRONTAL FGEN BAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. RECENT RADAR
TRENDS ACROSS E NE AND W IA SUGGEST THAT I80 NORTH HAS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR POPS FROM THIS BAND. DECIDED TO GO HIGH END CHC POPS
FOR THIS AS CONVERGENCE AND OVERALL FORCING WILL BE WEAKENING AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...RECENT RAP RUN SUGGESTS
THAT A REINTESIFICATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AM INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF STRONGER FGEN TRANSVERSES THE AREA. HIRES
CAM MODELS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP ON THIS AS WELL. WILL MONITOR
THIS THROUGH REST OF SHIFT TO DETERMINE IF LIKELYS ARE NEEDED.
ANOTHER AREA OF QPF LOOKS TO FORM AHEAD OF THIS FGEN BAND ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY OVER BUREAU
AND PUTNAM COUNTY. THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL...SO THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE POP FIELDS. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT ALL RAIN AT
THIS TIME WITH QPF AROUND 0.10 INCHES. TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP INTO THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
WELL ADVERTISED POTENTIAL WINTER STORM EARLY IN THE WEEK CONTINUES
TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS. OVERALL...THE NORTHWARD DRIFT EXHIBITED OVER
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS CONTINUED IN THE 00Z RUNS...LEADING TO A LESSER
LIKELIHOOD OF HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...OUR FAR NORTHERN IA COUNTIES
REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CONSENSUS AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW AXIS SHOWN
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR THAT AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE MODEL TRENDS OF THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS CONTINUED FOR 00Z/31 WITH
THE GFS STICKING TO THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WITH FASTER SYSTEM
PROGRESSION. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY MIDDLE OF THE ROAD...SLIGHTLY
SLOWER ECMWF AND THEN MORE SOUTHERLY NAM AND CANADIAN/GEM. WHILE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS STILL MODEST TO LOW DUE TO THE UPPER JET AND
TROUGH AXIS STILL OFF THE COAST AND NOT EXPECTED TO BE WELL SAMPLED
UNTIL LATER TODAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH OF A TREND WITH THE
MOST CONSISTENT GFS AND ECMWF BLENDS AND SREF TO SUPPORT A 50
PERCENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL POTENTIAL FOR 6 TO POSSIBLY 8 INCHES OF
SNOW NW OF A CID TO DBQ LINE WHERE A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ALL SUGGEST THE HEAVIEST
SNOW WILL BE DURING THE TUE MORNING PERIOD...WHERE THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR 6 PLUS INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NE IA. WHILE WINDS
WILL RAMP UP FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW TO N-NW AT
LEAST 20 TO 30 MPH BY TUE NIGHT...STRONGER WINDS AND THE NEEDED
SUPPORT OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND ARCTIC AIR IS LACKING WITH THIS
SYSTEM. 00Z ANALYSIS SHOWED 850 MB TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO C OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH NO SUBZERO TEMPERATURES SEEN AT THE SURFACE
OVER THE SAME REGION TONIGHT. WILL THUS HOLD OFF ON ADVERTISING
BLIZZARD TYPE WORDING AND ONLY MENTION PATCHY BLOWING SNOW DUE TO
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES DURING THE MOST OF THE EVENT THAT
WILL BE NON- CONDUCIVE TO CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW.
FURTHER SOUTH...THE NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THERMAL FIELDS WILL
LIKELY SEND THE RAIN/SNOW LINE MUCH FURTHER NORTH...LEADING TO
MAINLY A RAIN EVENT FOR THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
QPF OF A HALF INCH OR MORE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BEFORE A DRY SLOT
MOVES IN NEARLY ENDING THE PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON.
BLENDED APPROACH WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTH...WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD POTENTIALLY SURGE INTO THE LOWER
50S IF THE GFS TRACK VERIFIES. OVERNIGHT...COLDER AIR WRAPPING
AROUND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM SHOULD CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO
ALL SNOW...AND THIS IS WHERE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY
OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WED THROUGH SAT...THE FORECAST MAINTAINS A COLD AND MAINLY DRY
STRETCH WITH SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
IMPACTING MAINLY AREAS TO THE NORTH. HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS MAY BE TOO WARM DEPENDING ON THE
DEPTH AND COVERAGE OF NEW SNOWFALL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA AND DRAG A COLD
FRONT THROUGH ALL OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING SUNDAY. LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND BEHIND THIS FRONT...AND MAY BRING VERY
LIGHT RAIN TO AIRPORTS...CAPABLE OF WETTING SURFACES...BUT
VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 5 MILES. CIGS WILL BE VFR THROUGH
MID MORNING THEN GRADUALLY FALL TO MVFR...AROUND 1500 TO 2500 FT
FOR A PERIOD OF SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...DRY AIR WILL SWEEP IN BEHIND THE FRONT...LIFTING AND
CLEARING CIGS TO BE VFR.
ERVIN
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JONES-LINN.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...ERVIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
343 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
Recent water vapor imagery showing a few weak upper waves moving
east through the Central Plains in rather quick flow, with stronger
ones over eastern Nebraska and western Kansas early this morning.
Light precip has resulted ahead of the Nebraska wave, with slightly
increasing returns on area radars ahead of the Kansas wave. Cold
front associated with these waves was through the western half of
the CWA at 09Z.
Last few runs of the HRRR showing a continued increase in activity
in the local area through the mid morning hours with eventually some
light amounts reaching the ground in northeast Kansas where moisture
is marginally better so have little reason to remove the small POPS
here. Cold air advection backs off through the day but highs will
still be several degrees below Saturday`s. Weak ridging builds in
aloft ahead of the main upper wave tonight, with a resulting band of
modest frontogenesis developing aloft. Moisture quality in the low
levels will likely remain too low for any measurable precip through
the night however. Went on the warm side of most guidance for lows
with high cloud in place.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 343 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
Main portion of medium period forecast is the potent winter storm
system that will affect the Central Plains and specifically north
central and northeast Kansas Monday evening through Tuesday night.
The storm system was still off in the eastern Pacific this morning
and should move on shore later this afternoon or early evening. The
latest trends continue a slight northwestward track while the NAM
the outlier and furthest to the southeast. Even with this slight
change on track the area will still be impacted with hazardous
winter weather. Thermal profiles support all rain across much of the
area Monday afternoon with a mix of rain and snow in the north
central counties. Colder air deepens through the column in the
evening with a change over to snow, but areas of east central and
northeast Kansas will continue with mainly rain through the night.
Mid level frontogenesis sets up across the northern counties Monday
night through Tuesday. Cross sections show some periods of CSI and
CI across the area Monday night and Tuesday leading to enhanced
snowfall rates. The influence of the upper jet and difuent flow
ahead of the approaching wave will enhance upward vertical motion
across the area. Periods of heavy snow are expected Monday night and
Tuesday for much of north central and far northeast Kansas. Again a
quick drop off from a lot of snow to little or no snow is expected
and at this time its still to early to nail this area down.
Generally kept the configuration of the winter storm watch counties
the same as previous forecast where highest confidence is for
significant winter weather at this time. Across the east central
counties mainly rain is expected with this evening with some light
snow on the back side of the system Tuesday afternoon. Transition
area will lay along and west of a Emporia to Topeka line Tuesday
morning before changing over to all snow in the afternoon. Strong
northeast to north winds on the backside of the surface low will
cause considerable blow and drifting of snow and near zero
visibilities at times. The systems moves northeast Tuesday night
however the deformation zone/TROWAL will extend southwest into the
CWA Tuesday evening with continued snowfall.
Another upper trough moves through the Plains Wednesday night and
Thursday, but with little moisture have maintained a dry forecast.
Northwest flow transitions to zonal Thursday with another trough
moving across the Plains Friday with no precipitation expected.
Temperatures will be cooler than normal for the last half of the
week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1057 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016
All guidance continues to keep any light precip to the north of
the terminals. There also remains a signal for a brief period of
MVFR CIGS Sunday morning. So in all there is little changed from
the prev forecast.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Storm Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday evening
for KSZ008>012-020>023-034.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
447 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS. STRONG SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING CA AND WILL BE THE
FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR A GREAT LAKES WINTER STORM MID WEEK AS IT
TRACKS E...THEN NE. OF MORE IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS A SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS. SOME LIGHT PCPN HAS BEEN
DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN NEBRASKA/NW IA WITH THIS FEATURE...AND PCPN
HAS BEEN DEVELOPING FARTHER ENE ACROSS WI TO NRN LAKE MI...AIDED BY
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET EXTENDING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI TO
NEW ENGLAND.
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTN/EVENING. AS IT DOES SO...IT WILL SPIN UP A SFC LOW PRES
WAVE THAT WILL TRACK FROM WRN IL NE ACROSS LWR MI THIS AFTN/EVENING.
WHILE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL FGEN WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT PCPN AT TIMES THIS MORNING OVER FAR
SCNTRL UPPER MI AND ENE ALONG ALONG LAKE MI...THE BETTER CHANCE OF
PCPN WILL ARRIVE EARLY THIS AFTN AS RATHER HEALTHY DEEP LAYER
FORCING REACHES THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE. NRN EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD SHOULD BRUSH THE COUNTIES
BORDERING LAKE MI. BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS AND 1000-850MB THICKNESS
FIELD...PCPN SHOULD BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WITH A TRANSITION TO
MOSTLY SNOW AS LOW-LEVELS COOL SLIGHTLY. EVEN SO...NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION DUE TO MIX OF PCPN AND ABOVE FREEZING
SFC TEMPS...EVEN IF PCPN CHANGES TO ALL SNOW. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE UNDER 1 INCH. WHILE IT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS WARM AS
YESTERDAY...MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S.
TONIGHT...SUBTLE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE A
SFC TROF DROPS S ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO MOST OF NRN UPPER MI
BY 12Z MON. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOISTURE DEPTH MAY NOT BE
SUFFICIENT TO REACH SUB -10C TEMPS CONSISTENTLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EVENING. SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR -FZDZ IF PCPN OCCURS. THE
LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING AND MARGINAL AT BEST INSTABILITY OVER THE
LAKE SUGGESTS NOTHING MORE THAN SCHC POPS FOR -SN/-FZDZ ARE
WARRANTED NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM WEATHER MON/MON NIGHT...AND ALSO
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WILL FOCUS ON TUE-WED TIME FRAME WHEN
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS POSSIBLE.
BIG PICTURE WISE...AN UPPER WAVE DRIVEN 990MB SFC LOW WILL MOVE FROM
NRN IL TO NRN LOWER MI TUE EVENING AND TUE NIGHT. CURRENTLY...THE
CONGLOMERATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL COME TOGETHER TO CREATE
THE STRONGER UPPER WAVE ARE W OF CONUS IN THE PACIFIC...SO MODELS
ARE STILL CHANGING FROM RUN TO RUN. STILL...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...WITH ONLY RELATIVELY MINOR TRACK/TIMING/STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER AND FARTHER NW THAN THE
ECMWF...AND THE GLOBAL GEM IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF BUT A HAIR
SLOWER. EXPECT THE FORECAST TO REALLY MOVE INTO THE FINE TUNING
STAGE ON MON AFTER THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED OVER THE CONUS AND IS MORE
MATURE.
ASSUMING A TRACK SIMILAR TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY SHOWN...SIGNIFICANT
SYNOPTIC SNOW OVER MAINLY SERN/ERN UPPER MI WOULD BE ENHANCED OVER
NCENTRAL AND WRN UPPER MI AS 850MB TEMPS AOB -8C AND NE WINDS
TURNING N THEN NW. IF MODELS VERIFY WELL...WOULD PROBABLY SEE
CONDITIONS THAT WOULD VERIFY WARNINGS OVER MOST OF THE ZONES. SNOW
RATIOS WOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW TEENS SE TO THE UPPER TEENS
NW...WHICH IS ALSO WHAT WOULD HELP BOOST AMOUNTS ON THE NW EDGE OF
SYNOPTIC PRECIP. AS FOR TIMING OF SNOWFALL...EXPECT SNOW TO MOVE IN
TUE AFTERNOON AND BECOME HEAVY TUE EVENING INTO TUE NIGHT. SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING BEHIND THE SYSTEM BUT LAKE
ENHANCED/EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT INTO WED NIGHT. HESITANT TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT. DID INCREASE
SNOWFALL OVER THE SCENTRAL AND E WHILE SLIGHTLY DECREASING OVER THE
FAR NW. ANOTHER HAZARD TO LOOK AT IS WINDS...ESPECIALLY OUT OF THE N-
NNE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS NEAR MAINLY CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT ALL
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE GUSTS AT LEAST OVER 20 KTS.
MODELS KEEP US IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN...WITH ANOTHER COLD SHOT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
DIURNAL COOLING AND A WEAK TROUGH MOVING INTO UPPER MICHIGAN IS
EXPECTED TO BRING IN LOWER CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS AT CMX AND
SAW AND NEAR IFR CIGS AT IWD BY MID MORNING. SOME VSBY REDUCTION
WITH FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE AS WINDS BECOME NW TO N THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
ATTENTION DURING THIS FCST PERIOD WILL BE ON THE MIDWEEK PORTION OF
THE FCST AS LOW PRES TRACKS FROM THE SRN PLAINS NE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL GENERATE A PERIOD OF NE TO N GALES
LATE TUE NIGHT THRU EARLY WED AFTN OVER ALL BUT FAR WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
318 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MAINLY ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. A WEAK UPSTREAM SHORTAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING
INTO THE NRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A 984 MB LOW WAS MOVING THROUGH
NRN ONTARIO TOWAD JAMES BAY RESULTING IN SW TO W FLOW OR MILD
PACIFIC AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED TO NEAR OR ABOVE
RECORD VALUES WITH 44F AT THE NWS OFFICE BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF
41. VIS LOOP SHOWED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF UPPER MI WITH
MID/HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO THE SOUTH.
TONIGHT INTO SUN...MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS A WEAK TROUGH
INTO CNTRL MN MOVES INTO THE REGION. A BAND OF 800-600 MB FGEN
ASSOCIATED WITH A JET STREAK LIFTING NE FROM THE NRN LAKES WILL HELP
SUPPORT AN AREA OF PCPN FROM CNTRL INTO NE WI AND INTO FAR SRN AND
POSSIBLY SE UPPER MI. MODELS CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT QPF AMOUNTS TO
AROUND 0.10 INCH FROM 06Z-18Z MAY AFFECT LOCATIONS NEAR MNM.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MODELS SPREAD...CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL AND MAINLY
CHNANCE POPS WERE MENTIONED EXCEPT AT MNM (60 POP) AROUND 12Z. LOW
LEVEL TEMP PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN AS THE PCPN TYPE.
HOWEVER...WITH TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR 32F A BIT FARTHER INLAND...SOME
FZRA/SN MAY ALSO MIX WITH THE PCPN. SO...EVEN THOUGH LITTLE OR NO
ICE/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ANY SMALL AMOUNTS ON UNTREATED
SURFACES COULD STILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. AS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVES OUT IN THE MORNING...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS
ALONG THE TROUGH/FRONT...SOME DZ/FZDZ WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SE
HALF. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER
30S OVER THE NW HALF TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S OVER THE S AND E.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM WEATHER MON/MON NIGHT...AND ALSO
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WILL FOCUS ON TUE-WED TIME FRAME WHEN
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS POSSIBLE.
BIG PICTURE WISE...AN UPPER WAVE DRIVEN 990MB SFC LOW WILL MOVE FROM
NRN IL TO NRN LOWER MI TUE EVENING AND TUE NIGHT. CURRENTLY...THE
CONGLOMERATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL COME TOGETHER TO CREATE
THE STRONGER UPPER WAVE ARE W OF CONUS IN THE PACIFIC...SO MODELS
ARE STILL CHANGING FROM RUN TO RUN. STILL...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...WITH ONLY RELATIVELY MINOR TRACK/TIMING/STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER AND FARTHER NW THAN THE
ECMWF...AND THE GLOBAL GEM IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF BUT A HAIR
SLOWER. EXPECT THE FORECAST TO REALLY MOVE INTO THE FINE TUNING
STAGE ON MON AFTER THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED OVER THE CONUS AND IS MORE
MATURE.
ASSUMING A TRACK SIMILAR TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY SHOWN...SIGNIFICANT
SYNOPTIC SNOW OVER MAINLY SERN/ERN UPPER MI WOULD BE ENHANCED OVER
NCENTRAL AND WRN UPPER MI AS 850MB TEMPS AOB -8C AND NE WINDS
TURNING N THEN NW. IF MODELS VERIFY WELL...WOULD PROBABLY SEE
CONDITIONS THAT WOULD VERIFY WARNINGS OVER MOST OF THE ZONES. SNOW
RATIOS WOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW TEENS SE TO THE UPPER TEENS
NW...WHICH IS ALSO WHAT WOULD HELP BOOST AMOUNTS ON THE NW EDGE OF
SYNOPTIC PRECIP. AS FOR TIMING OF SNOWFALL...EXPECT SNOW TO MOVE IN
TUE AFTERNOON AND BECOME HEAVY TUE EVENING INTO TUE NIGHT. SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING BEHIND THE SYSTEM BUT LAKE
ENHANCED/EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT INTO WED NIGHT. HESITANT TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT. DID INCREASE
SNOWFALL OVER THE SCENTRAL AND E WHILE SLIGHTLY DECREASING OVER THE
FAR NW. ANOTHER HAZARD TO LOOK AT IS WINDS...ESPECIALLY OUT OF THE N-
NNE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS NEAR MAINLY CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT ALL
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE GUSTS AT LEAST OVER 20 KTS.
MODELS KEEP US IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN...WITH ANOTHER COLD SHOT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
DIURNAL COOLING AND A WEAK TROUGH MOVING INTO UPPER MICHIGAN IS
EXPECTED TO BRING IN LOWER CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS AT CMX AND
SAW AND NEAR IFR CIGS AT IWD BY MID MORNING. SOME VSBY REDUCTION
WITH FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE AS WINDS BECOME NW TO N THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 550 AM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
STRONG LOW TRACKING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO THIS MORNING WILL RESULT
IN SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KTS TODAY. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO SUN
AS RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACKING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL LIKELY BRING NORTH TO NORTHEAST GALES
TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
308 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY
TODAY. THIS WILL BRING SOME RAINFALL TO THE ENTIRE AREA. THE RAIN
COULD CHANGE OVER TO A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING AS THE
PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION
WILL START OUT AS A MIXTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MORE SNOW...SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE NORTH...TO MORE RAIN SOUTH. A SURGE OF
WARMER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM. COLDER AIR WILL COME IN BEHIND
THE SYSTEM BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
THEN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
NO MAJOR IMPACTS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FCST. WE
WILL SEE RAIN EXPAND IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. WE
ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH AHEAD
OF A LEAD SHORT WAVE MOVING IN. MOISTURE IS A BIT LACKING INITIALLY
THIS MORNING WHICH WILL KEEP THE MEASURABLE AMOUNTS LIMITED. WE
WILL SEE A SURGE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVE IN BY AFTERNOON AS THE
MAIN SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS APPROACHES. PCPN SHOULD
REMAIN ALL RAIN AS WET BULB TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND THE MELTING
LAYER IS ABOVE 5K FT. FOG WILL BECOME LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
SFC LOW MOVES RIGHT THROUGH THE AREA.
PCPN WILL THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WE EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE
PCPN COULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BRIEFLY BEFORE ENDING AS SOMEWHAT
COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE. THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE AND PCPN WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME THE
CHANGEOVER IS TO OCCUR. SOME PCPN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS
THE MAIN SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS QUIET AND MILD. THE AIR COOLS
DOWN A BIT FOR MON WITH H850 TEMPS DROPPING AS LOW AS -6C OR SO.
THIS WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. IT WILL
ESSENTIALLY JUST BRING MAX TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 40 ON MON...VS. THE
MID-UPPER 40S WE WILL SEE TODAY. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD IN DURING
THE DAY ON MON AND REMAIN THROUGH MON NIGHT. THIS SHOULD HOLD OFF
ANY PCPN THAT TRIES TO SNEAK IN FROM THE SW UNTIL AT LEAST AFTER 12Z
TUE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
THE MAIN CONCERN DEALS WITH THE IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE POSSIBLE
STORM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
GENERALLY THE FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH REGARDING THE POTENTIAL
STORM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. STILL THE SYSTEM IS STILL OFF THE CA
COAST AND FUTURE FORECASTS COULD CHANGE CONSIDERABLY. BASED ON THE
00Z RUNS...THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION COULD BE A MIX FOR CENTRAL
LOWER MI TUESDAY AFTERNOON...GENERALLY NORTH OF A GRAND RAPIDS TO
LANSING LINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG ROUTE 10 EAST OF LUDINGTON
SHOW A RISK FOR ZR 00Z WEDNESDAY AS THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER MOVES IN
AND STEADIER PRECIPITATION WET BULBS THE SURFACE TEMPS DOWN CLOSE TO
FREEZING. GIVEN THE RISK FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS AND FREEZING RAIN...WE
COULD SEE POWER OUTAGES DEVELOPING LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. SOUTHERN LOCATIONS SHOULD
GENERALLY SEE A RAIN EVENT. WITH SNOW MELT AND OVER A HALF INCH OF
RAIN...SOME HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE. I DID KEEP THE MENTION
OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY EVENING WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SHOWN BY THE MODELS. ALL MODELS INDICATE A RATHER CONSIDERABLE DRY
SLOT TO MOVE IN QUICKLY TUESDAY EVENING...SHUTTING DOWN MUCH OF THE
STEADY PRECIPITATION INTO WEDNESDAY.
AS COLD AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS ON WEDNESDAY...LAKE EFFECT IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS GOING FOR WESTERN
COUNTIES. THE COMBINATION OF ONSHORE WINDS AND A COLD AIRMASS
CROSSING LAKE MI SUPPORTS CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IN THINKING FROM THE 00Z TAFS. THE LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ARRIVE TOWARD SUNRISE. I MAY HAVE THE
LOW CLOUDS COMING IN TO FAST BUT BASED ON THE LATEST RUN OF THE
NAM AND RAP MODELS... ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE IFR BY 15Z-16Z. RAIN
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT
WILL COME THROUGH LATE IN THE EVENING ON THE SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED UNTIL THE STORM SYSTEM
COMES IN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND BEYOND. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 20 KNOTS UNTIL THEN WITH WAVES REMAINING BELOW 4 FEET. WE
EXPECT THAT A SMALL CRAFT WILL BE NEEDED FOR TUE AND BEYOND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 247 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN
LOWLAND AREAS NEAR RIVERS. SOME RIVERS MAY BE ABLE TO EXCEED
BANKFULL DUE TO SNOW MELT AND A STORM SYSTEM. THE STORM WILL IMPACT
MICHIGAN TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF
0.50-1.00 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
A COMBINATION OF A WINTRY MIX AND PLAIN RAIN. RIVER LEVEL RISES ARE
ESPECIALLY LIKELY FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...NJJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1218 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MAINLY ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. A WEAK UPSTREAM SHORTAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING
INTO THE NRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A 984 MB LOW WAS MOVING THROUGH
NRN ONTARIO TOWAD JAMES BAY RESULTING IN SW TO W FLOW OR MILD
PACIFIC AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED TO NEAR OR ABOVE
RECORD VALUES WITH 44F AT THE NWS OFFICE BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF
41. VIS LOOP SHOWED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF UPPER MI WITH
MID/HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO THE SOUTH.
TONIGHT INTO SUN...MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS A WEAK TROUGH
INTO CNTRL MN MOVES INTO THE REGION. A BAND OF 800-600 MB FGEN
ASSOCIATED WITH A JET STREAK LIFTING NE FROM THE NRN LAKES WILL HELP
SUPPORT AN AREA OF PCPN FROM CNTRL INTO NE WI AND INTO FAR SRN AND
POSSIBLY SE UPPER MI. MODELS CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT QPF AMOUNTS TO
AROUND 0.10 INCH FROM 06Z-18Z MAY AFFECT LOCATIONS NEAR MNM.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MODELS SPREAD...CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL AND MAINLY
CHNANCE POPS WERE MENTIONED EXCEPT AT MNM (60 POP) AROUND 12Z. LOW
LEVEL TEMP PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN AS THE PCPN TYPE.
HOWEVER...WITH TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR 32F A BIT FARTHER INLAND...SOME
FZRA/SN MAY ALSO MIX WITH THE PCPN. SO...EVEN THOUGH LITTLE OR NO
ICE/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ANY SMALL AMOUNTS ON UNTREATED
SURFACES COULD STILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. AS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVES OUT IN THE MORNING...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS
ALONG THE TROUGH/FRONT...SOME DZ/FZDZ WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SE
HALF. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER
30S OVER THE NW HALF TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S OVER THE S AND E.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
...WINTER STORM LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IS STILL ON...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT HAS RE-ORGANIZED THE LAST DAY WITH STRONG
JET ACROSS PACIFIC SPLITTING ALONG WEST COAST. STRONGEST JET ENERGY
IS IN SOUTHERN STREAM AS IT MERGES WITH SUBTROPICAL JET ALONG SE
CONUS COAST. NORTHERN BRANCH JET IS WEST-EAST ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES. EXPECTATION IS THAT INTO EARLY THIS WEEK...JET
CRASHING INTO WEST COAST WILL DIG INTO SOUTHERN CA/BAJA CA WHILE
CARVING A TROUGH OUT OVER SW CONUS. AS THIS IS OCCURRING...TWO MAIN
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY...CURRENTLY OFFSHORE OF BRITISH COLUMBIA
WITH THE OTHER WELL TO WEST OF CA WILL PHASE TOGETHER WITHIN THIS
MEAN TROUGH. PHASING WOULD APPEAR TO BE DONE BY MON MORNING...SO
THEN IT JUST BECOMES A TRACK FORECAST OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW. LATEST GUIDANCE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SFC
LOW MOVING TO NORTHERN LOWER/EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN BY WED MORNING.
UPSHOT IS THAT STRONG STORM WITH SNOW/WIND REMAINS ON TRACK FOR UPR
MICHIGAN TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
BACK OVER UPR LAKES IT LOOKS PRETTY QUIET IN THE LEAD UP TIME TO THE
POTENTIAL STORM. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW REMAINS ACROSS GREAT LAKES
EARLY IN THE WEEK. STRONG SFC LOW MOVING BY OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
THIS AFTN WILL LEAD A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT TO ITS WEST. BY LATE SUN
THIS FRONT SHOULD STILL BE NORTH OF UPR MICHIGAN/LK SUPERIOR THOUGH
LEAD TROUGH MAY BE THROUGH UPR MICHIGAN BY THAT TIME. LEAD WAVE IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM WORKS THROUGH ON SUN NIGHT WITH WEAK LARGE SCALE
LIFT. MAIN AFFECT OF THE WAVE WILL BE TO BRING H85 COLD FRONT OVER
UPR MICHIGAN ALONG WITH INCREASING H9-H8 MOISTURE AND PUSH SFC COLD
FRONT OVER LK SUPERIOR. ONSHORE FLOW AND TEMPS AT TOP OF INVERSION
MARGINALLY COLD FOR LAKE EFFECT /MAYBE LOWER THAN -10C/ SHOULD LEAD
TO LIGHT LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION SUN NIGHT INTO MON FOR NW-N FLOW
AREAS. WITH GOOD PART OF THIS TIME FEATURING TEMPS -8C OR WARMER
ALSO PUT MENTION OF FZDZ IN THE GRIDS. PROBABLY LOOKING AT FLURRIES
AND FZDZ SUN NIGHT THEN BETTER SHOT AT SNOW SHOWERS MON AS IT TURNS
SLIGHTLY COOLER AT H85. BEST CHANCE OF MUCH PRECIP THROUGHOUT WILL
BE OVER NW INTO NCNTRL CWA WITH UPSLOPE NW FLOW. OVERALL NOT LOOKING
AT MUCH SNOW WITH LIMITED CONVERGENCE AND MINIMAL COLD AIR. HINT
THAT ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WORKS THROUGH LATE MON INTO MON EVENING WITH
MORE OF WIDESPREAD LGT SNOW/FLURRIES. WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD LEAD
TO MORE FZDZ LATER AT NIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE/FORCING ARE REMOVED.
ATTN TUE MORNING WILL BE ON THE WINTER STORM ONGOING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. STEADY MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOULD BE SPREADING ACROSS
MUCH OF CO/KS/SW NEB AND HEADING TOWARD EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA. SFC
LOW SHOULD BE VCNTY OF KS/OK BORDER. AS SHRA/TSRA START DEVELOPING
IN THE WARM SECTOR DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...SNOW WILL BE
EXPANDING AND INCREASING ON TUE AS IT CROSSES FM MID MO RIVER VALLEY
TOWARD WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY AS DEEP GULF MOISTURE IS
INGESTED INTO THE SYSTEM. STRONG DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN EXIT REGION OF
150+ KTS JET STREAK OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD AID IN WIDESPREAD
HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
EXPECT MODERATE SNOW TO REACH SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTN.
FARTHER NORTH...EAST WINDS AND TEMPS IN LOW-LEVEL MOIST LAYER -8C TO-
10C SHOULD ALLOW SNOW TO START TO EXPAND NW/NCNTRL BY LATE DAY
THOUGH INTENSITY SHOULD BE HELD DOWN AS DEEP MOISTURE IS LIMITED
ABOVE 850MB UNTIL RIGHT AT 00Z. WORTH SMALL CHANCE POPS WHILE
SPREAD LIKELY POPS OVER THE SCNTRL IN THE AFTN.
BULK OF STORM OCCURS TUE NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WED. AS THE SFC LOW
REACHES NORTHERN LK MICHIGAN/NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY 12Z WED...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SNOW OVER ALL OF UPR MICHIGAN. BASED ON TRACK OF
H85-H7 LOWS...HEAVIEST STRIPE OF SNOW WILL BE OVER CNTRL CWA. MOST
AREAS WILL SEE HEAVY SNOW FOR A TIME THOUGH AND WARNING AMOUNTS OF
AT LEAST 6 INCHES/12 HOURS WOULD BE MET. LAKE ENHANCEMENT/UPSLOPE
NORTHEAST WINDS WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN BLO -10C WILL ADD TO SNOW
INTENSITY AND TOTALS FOR NCNTRL CWA. THOUGH BULK OF SYSTEM SNOW
REMAINS TO EAST OF WESTERN CWA...COLDER TEMPS/HIGHER SLR/S AND
FAVORABLE NRLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW AND
POSSIBLE WARNING AMOUNTS THERE AS WELL. LAST...BUT CERTAINLY NOT
LEAST IS THE NORTH WINDS OVER 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS THAT WILL
LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VSBY. AT LEAST
LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OR AT
LEAST LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES INTO WED AFTN/WED EVENING. SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN TRACK OF LOW...WITH ECMWF MORE OVER ALPENA AT 12Z WED
AND GEM OVER CNTRL LK MICHIGAN. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
BUT OVERALL FLAVOR OF RECENT FORECASTS WITH THIS STORM ARE STILL ON
TRACK.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...MEAN TROUGHING AND COLD AIR WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN
IN THE -15C TO -20C RANGE WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT GOING FOR NW FLOW
AREAS. RETAINED PREVIOUS SHIFTS HIGHER POPS OVER CONSENSUS. MAY TURN
EVEN COLDER FOR NEXT WEEKEND...SO THE LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE.
AFTER THE MILD BREAK TODAY AND SUNDAY...LOOKS TO REMAIN WINTRY ON
INTO MID FEB.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
DIURNAL COOLING AND A WEAK TROUGH MOVING INTO UPPER MICHIGAN IS
EXPECTED TO BRING IN LOWER CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS AT CMX AND
SAW AND NEAR IFR CIGS AT IWD BY MID MORNING. SOME VSBY REDUCTION
WITH FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE AS WINDS BECOME NW TO N THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 550 AM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
STRONG LOW TRACKING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO THIS MORNING WILL RESULT
IN SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KTS TODAY. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO SUN
AS RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACKING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL LIKELY BRING NORTH TO NORTHEAST GALES
TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1158 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 247 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE WET AS LIGHT RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION...
WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE 40S ONCE AGAIN. ATTENTION TURNS
TO A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WINTERY MIX OF PRECIPITATION COULD
IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE MOST AREAS
TURN OVER TO RAIN. MOST OF THE HEAVY SNOW MAY STAY OVER WISCONSIN
AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH THIS SYSTEM. SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE STORM DEPARTS THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
LIGHT RAIN LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TOMORROW AS H850 WARM
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES BUILDING IN ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT LOOKS FAIRLY DECENT WITH THIS SYSTEM (40 KT LLJ) THOUGH
OVERALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH BASED
ON BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE. SOME WET SNOWFLAKES COULD MIX IN
SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY TOWARD ROUTE 10 AS THE H850 THERMAL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH AND SUBFREEZING TEMPS ALOFT COULD AID IN SOME WET
SNOW MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
INSIGNIFICANT. ANY IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE IN THE FORM
OF LEFTOVER WATER ON ROADS THAT COULD FREEZE UP FOR THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. SOMETHING TO BE MINDFUL OF.
MONDAY WILL STAY DRY ASIDE FROM A FEW FLURRIES NEAR ROUTE
10. OVERALL IT SHOULD BE A MILD DAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER BUT SHOULD SEE SOME INTERVALS OF SUN AS WELL. I FEATURED
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY STORM SYSTEM...THOUGH THERE COULD BE LIGHT
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES CLOSER TO SUNRISE ON TUESDAY ACROSS FAR SW
LOWER MI.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
WE CONTINUE TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS FOR THE TUE/WED STORM SYSTEM.
GENERALLY THE SURFACE LOW TRACK REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT...FROM
ROUGHLY CHICAGO TO ALPENA. STILL A LOT OF DETAILS TO IRON OUT AS
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC AND HAS NOT BEEN SAMPLED
WELL. FORECAST CHANGES MAY BE NEEDED AS THE STORM EVOLVES.
ANOTHER TREND IN THE MODELS HAVE THE WARM SURGE WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR EVEN STRONGER WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET BRINGING THAT WARMTH
NORTHWARD. THEREFORE HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST A BIT WARMER.
AS IT APPEARS NOW...INITIALLY WE SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY AS
THE PCPN MOVES IN. THIS COULD PUT DOWN 1-3 INCHES...MAINLY NORTH OF
I-96. BUT THEN A CHANGE TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. IF THE SHALLOW COLD AIR IS ABLE TO HOLD IN
PLACE WE COULD SEE FREEZING RAIN PERSIST FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-96.
ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE. SO THE POTENTIAL
FOR IMPACTS APPEAR HIGHEST NORTH OF I-96 AT THIS POINT.
MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY CHANGING PCPN
TO SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS AS H8 TEMPS DROP TO -10C TO -15C FOR THE REMINDER OF THE WEEK.
THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT WE MAY SEE A CLIPPER MOVE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER ABOUT SATURDAY...KEEPING SNOW
IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IN THINKING FROM THE 00Z TAFS. THE LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ARRIVE TOWARD SUNRISE. I MAY HAVE THE
LOW CLOUDS COMING IN TO FAST BUT BASED ON THE LATEST RUN OF THE
NAM AND RAP MODELS... ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE IFR BY 15Z-16Z. RAIN
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT
WILL COME THROUGH LATE IN THE EVENING ON THE SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 247 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
ADMITTEDLY MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH
TONIGHT BASED ON COASTAL WEB CAMS. WAVES GENERALLY LOOK TO BE 3
FEET OR LESS OUT THERE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS
FROM PENTWATER TO LUDINGTON. OVERALL...WAVES WILL SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
LOOKS LIKE SOME HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS REDEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH 3 TO 5 FOOTER POSSIBLY RETURNING MAINLY FROM HOLLAND
TO SOUTH HAVEN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 247 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN
LOWLAND AREAS NEAR RIVERS. SOME RIVERS MAY BE ABLE TO EXCEED
BANKFULL DUE TO SNOW MELT AND A STORM SYSTEM. THE STORM WILL IMPACT
MICHIGAN TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF
0.50-1.00 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
A COMBINATION OF A WINTRY MIX AND PLAIN RAIN. RIVER LEVEL RISES ARE
ESPECIALLY LIKELY FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...HOVING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
325 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
EARLY THIS MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE CLEARING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH PRIMARILY LINGERING
HIGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FAR SE FORECAST AREA. MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA...WILL HAVE CLEAR SKIES...RELATIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS...AND
VERY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS BEFORE DAWN. MODELS ARE HIGHLY SUGGESTING
FOG FORMATION AND RESULTING LOW LEVEL STRATUS FORMATION. MAY NEED
TO INCREASE FOG COVERAGE AND CLOUD COVER IF CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
TREND TOWARD THE FOGGY AND CLOUDY HRRR/RAP13/DLHWRF MODELS.
TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND...AND A COLD FRONT WILL DROP OUT OF ONTARIO AND MANITOBA
AND PASS THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. EVEN THOUGH THE FOG SHOULD LIFT
LATER THIS MORNING...THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
HELP MAINTAIN/DEVELOP LOW LEVEL STRATUS. FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WHEN SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
NORTHLAND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...AND FROM THE FORCING
FROM THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
IN THE LOWER 30S...BUT COULD BE LOWER IF THE FOG/STRATUS IS MORE
EXTENSIVE THAN FORECAST.
TONIGHT...A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA
FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM MANITOBA
AND NE NORTH DAKOTA. IT COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...THE
NIGHT SHOULD BE CLOUDY WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TEENS OVER
THE NORTH TO THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
MONDAY...THE PASSING WEAK LOW AND SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH. THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERING OF THE CLOUD COVER BY THE
AFTERNOON. DESPITE SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE COLDER THAN SUNDAY. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
HIGH NEARBY AND THE BEST FORCING HAS MOVED AWAY...REMOVED THE POPS
FOR MONDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT IS MOVING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. TUESDAY MORNING FINDS THAT SYSTEM A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN YESTERDAY IN BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA. HAVE BACKED OFF
ON THE POPS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND. BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP IN THE TRACK OF THE
SFC LOW AS WELL AS THE QPF FIELD. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH KEEP THE
QUARTER OF AN INCH CONTOUR SOUTH OF NW WI. HOWEVER...THE SNOW WILL
HAVE SPREAD INTO ALL OF NW WI. THERE IS A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE SNOW AND WHERE NO SNOW IS POSSIBLE...THAT BEING ALL OF NE MN
EXCEPT FROM THE TWIN PORTS SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN AITKIN COUNTY. THIS
IS DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR NEARBY. HAVE SMALL TO
LOW POPS IN THIS AREA OF MN...WITH HIGHER POPS THE FARTHER EAST
INTO NW WI WHERE A COUPLE OF INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY NIGHT FINDS THE DIFFERENCES IN SFC LOW TRACK
CONTINUING WITH THE GFS PLACING THE LOW CENTER OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE ECMWF PUTS IT OVER EASTERN LAKE HURON. THESE
DIFFERENCES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE QPF FIELDS POINT TO THE BULK OF
THE SNOW OCCURRING IN NW WI. THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS TUESDAY NIGHT
APPEAR TO BE EAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 63. CONFIDENCE ON THESE AMOUNTS
IS BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED DIFFERENCES. THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY LEAVING A NW FLOW OVER THE AREA. CAA AND A
WNW FETCH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MAY PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS IN NW WI. WEDNESDAY NIGHT FINDS A LONG WAVE TROF MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE LIGHT SNOW
SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM A WEAK SFC LOW AND HAVE POPS TO
REFLECT THIS DIFFERENCE. THE LONG WAVE TROF MOVES INTO EASTERN WI
THURSDAY ACCOMPANIED BY CHANNELED VORTICITY WHICH MEANS LOW POPS
FOR LIGHT SNOW. THIS TROF DEPARTS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING BEHIND. LINGERED SOME POPS OVER THE GOGEBIC
RANGE FOR THIS CHANNELED VORTICITY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FEATURES
THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AFFECTING THE REGION. LARGE ISSUES
WITH THE OVERALL QPF AND THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM RESULTS IN LOW
POPS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016
LOW VFR/MVFR CEILINGS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WITH LITTLE FOG OCCURRING IN THE NORTHLAND AS OF LATE
EVENING. WE DO EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP IN SPOTS...WHICH MAY REDUCE
CONDITIONS TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THE CEILINGS OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT WE DO EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE CEILING FORECAST IS
LOWER THAN AVERAGE AS WE DO EXPECT MORE DEVELOPMENT THAN CLOUDS
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. THE RAP/SREF STILL PRODUCE FOG...DENSE
IN SPOTS...OVERNIGHT AND THAT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOWER CEILINGS
AS WELL. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND THE RAP SUGGEST LOWER CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN OVER MOST AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 33 22 28 15 / 0 10 10 10
INL 29 12 22 4 / 10 20 20 10
BRD 31 20 30 15 / 10 10 10 0
HYR 34 22 32 17 / 10 10 10 0
ASX 34 22 31 18 / 0 10 20 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1137 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016
FOCUS IN SHORT TERM ON POCKET OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MID LEVEL
FORCING MOVING INTO NW WISCONSIN ZONES. THE CEILINGS ABOVE 5 KFT
AND LATEST NAMBUF SOUNDINGS SHOW LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWER AS THE
SHORT WAVE TRANSLATES ACROSS THE HAYWARD LAKES TO PARK FALLS
REGION THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF FREEZING
RAIN/SNOW AND KEPT PRECIPITATION TYPE AS ALL RAIN/SPRINKLES AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO WARM TO AROUND 40F THIS
AFTERNOON. INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG TO LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR AND OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT WHERE ZONAL FLOW
WILL KEEP DEW POINTS ELEVATED. HOWEVER...CANT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG
OVER REST OF FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE SNOWBELT TODAY.
A TRANSITION TO COLD AIR ADVECTION AND NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR LOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THROUGH SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED FLURRIES TO THE
NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO ACCOMPANY THE LOW CLOUDS AND
WEAK FORCING FROM A 500HPA TROUGH THAT WILL TRACK INTO THE WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR REGION.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016
A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION
WILL BRING WITH IT A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY FROM THE IRON RANGE NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER. SOME
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THAT TIME. THE FOCUS WILL THEN
SHIFT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A MAJOR WINTER STORM FROM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS ARE GRADUALLY COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WINTER STORM. THE
MODELS GENERALLY BRING THE SURFACE LOW TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY...AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE LOW
THEN MOVES TO QUEBEC BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW ALONG A SWATH FROM SC MN
INTO WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN. COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. ACROSS OUR AREA...THE MAIN THREAT IS IN NW
WI...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS DO NOW AGREE ON BRINGING A DECENT AMOUNT OF
QPF TO BORDERING AREAS OF NE MN. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE RAMPED UP
POPS FROM EAST CENTRAL MN INTO THE TWIN PORTS AND THE NORTH SHORE.
WIND WILL ALSO BE A MAJOR ISSUE...AS THE SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES ON ITS NORTHEAST TREK. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. COOLER AND MUCH MORE QUIET WEATHER WILL THEN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA AFTER THE WINTER STORM...WITH A MEAN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THAT
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016
LOW VFR/MVFR CEILINGS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA
WITH LITTLE FOG OCCURRING IN THE NORTHLAND AS OF LATE EVENING. WE
DO EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP IN SPOTS...WHICH MAY REDUCE CONDITIONS TO
IFR OR EVEN LIFR FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE
CEILINGS OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST...BUT WE DO EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE CEILING FORECAST IS LOWER THAN
AVERAGE AS WE DO EXPECT MORE DEVELOPMENT THAN CLOUDS ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION. THE RAP/SREF STILL PRODUCE FOG...DENSE IN
SPOTS...OVERNIGHT AND THAT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOWER CEILINGS AS
WELL. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND THE RAP SUGGEST LOWER CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN OVER MOST AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 24 32 21 28 / 10 10 10 10
INL 23 30 16 20 / 10 10 20 20
BRD 21 32 20 28 / 10 10 10 10
HYR 26 34 21 30 / 20 10 10 10
ASX 26 34 23 30 / 10 10 20 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
1040 PM MST SAT JAN 30 2016
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. RADAR RETURNS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA SO POPS
HAVE BEEN LOWERED ACCORDINGLY. HRRR ANALYSIS INDICATES SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SKIES HAVE CLEARED A BIT OVER A PORTION
OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND EXPECT ONLY SOME HIGH
CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO DECREASE. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0540Z.
A DISTURBANCE ALOFT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND GENERATE
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA. CLEARING OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MONTANA WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 08Z. WESTERLY WINDS HAVE DECREASED BUT WILL BECOME
BREEZY AGAIN AFTER 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF SNOW SHOWERS. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT
TIMES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 249 PM MST SAT JAN 30 2016
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A VARIABLE WEATHER SITUATION IS
OCCURRING OVER OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS SUNNY...MILD AND
BREEZY OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT...WHILE NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS AND
COLDER TEMPERATURES PREVAIL OVER SOUTHWEST MT. SOME OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST HAVE PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY
SNOWFALL. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE GENERALLY ABOUT 1/2 INCH...BUT
SOME MOUNTAIN PASSES AROUND BUTTE...BOULDER AND MACDONALD PASS
COULD SEE A QUICK INCH OF SNOWFALL. THUS POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FOR SOUTHWEST MT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
DIVIDE. SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS COULD EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS THE
BOZEMAN AREA AS WELL. EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH A BIT
LATER THIS EVENING...WHILE COLDER AIR GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. FOR NOW...WE WILL HOLD OFF ON A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...AND CONTINUE WITH THE SPS STATEMENTS...BUT IF
THE SNOWFALL INCREASES IN INTENSITY FOR LONGER PERIODS...A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY COULD BE ISSUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MT. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL LIKELY
SLIP DOWN INTO THE GREAT FALLS AND LEWISTOWN AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. AGAIN...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE ON THE LOW
SIDE...GENERALLY AROUND 1/2 INCH...WITH A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS
UP TO AN INCH. IN SOUTHWEST MT...THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN UNSETTLED...ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THE COOLING TREND
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. BRUSDA
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LATEST FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE
TO DEPICT AN UNSETTLED, COOL PATTERN FOR OUR REGION FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. FROM LATE MON THROUGH AT LEAST WED, CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST
MT WILL BE IN TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THE DEEP LONGWAVE TROF
EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA BACK INTO THE CENTRAL US AND BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. THAT WILL KEEP
US IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL DRAW COLDER AIRMASSES FROM
UPPER BC/ALB, RATHER THAN MORE RELATIVELY MILD PACIFIC AIR.
INTERMITTENT BANDS OF MOISTURE TRAVERSING THE FLOW WILL LEAD TO
SEVERAL PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH WED EVE, BUT SNOW COVERAGE
WILL BE SPOTTY, ESPECIALLY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. AS THE BANDS TAKE
RANDOM PATHS THROUGH OUR AREA, MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH WERE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT YESTERDAY ON MOVING THE PACIFIC RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON THURS ARE NOW LESS CERTAIN ON THAT OCCURRING.
THE ECMWF INDICATES THE RIDGE WILL GET HERE BUT MUCH DIMINISHED IN
STRENGTH AS A SHORTWAVE TROF CUTS THROUGH THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND
MOVES EAST OF ROCKY MTN FRONT BY THURS NIGHT. THE GFS IS LESS
OPTIMISTIC ON THE RIDGE EVEN MAKING IT HERE, AS IT SHOWS THE SAME
SHORTWAVE SLICING THROUGH THE RIDGE WHILE IT`S STILL IN WA/OR. THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE AS THE ECMWF TAKES THE SHORTWAVE
STRAIGHT ACROSS THE STATE, BRINGING WIDESPREAD MIX OF RAIN/SNOW ON
FRI FOLLOWED BY WEAK RIDGING ON SAT. MEANWHILE, THE GFS SLOWLY
PUSHES THE SHORTWAVE INTO ID/UT AND BRINGS ITS RAIN/SNOW ONLY AS
FAR EAST AS THE INTERSTATE 15 CORRIDOR, KEEPING PRECIP THERE
THROUGH SAT. FURTHER CHANGES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE LIKELY, BUT
FOR NOW OUR FORECAST DETAILS LEAN MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF MODEL.
CLOSEST AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS IS IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES.
BOTH MODELS ARE BACKING OFF ON EARLIER FORECASTS OF MILD TEMPS FOR
THURS AND FRI, INSTEAD NOW PROJECTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S FROM THURS THROUGH SAT.
WARANAUSKAS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 23 34 18 30 / 10 10 40 30
CTB 22 32 17 27 / 10 30 40 30
HLN 18 28 13 25 / 40 20 30 40
BZN 11 25 4 21 / 20 20 20 20
WEY 8 22 -3 19 / 40 30 20 10
DLN 10 22 3 17 / 30 20 20 20
HVR 24 34 19 28 / 20 40 30 30
LWT 19 32 16 27 / 10 10 40 50
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
905 PM MST SAT JAN 30 2016
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. RADAR RETURNS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA SO POPS
HAVE BEEN LOWERED ACCORDINGLY. HRRR ANALYSIS INDICATES SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SKIES HAVE CLEARED A BIT OVER A PORTION
OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND EXPECT ONLY SOME HIGH
CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO DECREASE. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2355Z.
A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND
GENERATE BANDS OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD GRADUALLY END BY 07Z WITH PARTIAL CLEARING. BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE BY 07Z. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR SNOW BANDS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT TIMES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 249 PM MST SAT JAN 30 2016
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A VARIABLE WEATHER SITUATION IS
OCCURRING OVER OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS SUNNY...MILD AND
BREEZY OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT...WHILE NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS AND
COLDER TEMPERATURES PREVAIL OVER SOUTHWEST MT. SOME OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST HAVE PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY
SNOWFALL. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE GENERALLY ABOUT 1/2 INCH...BUT
SOME MOUNTAIN PASSES AROUND BUTTE...BOULDER AND MACDONALD PASS
COULD SEE A QUICK INCH OF SNOWFALL. THUS POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FOR SOUTHWEST MT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
DIVIDE. SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS COULD EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS THE
BOZEMAN AREA AS WELL. EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH A BIT
LATER THIS EVENING...WHILE COLDER AIR GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. FOR NOW...WE WILL HOLD OFF ON A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...AND CONTINUE WITH THE SPS STATEMENTS...BUT IF
THE SNOWFALL INCREASES IN INTENSITY FOR LONGER PERIODS...A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY COULD BE ISSUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MT. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL LIKELY
SLIP DOWN INTO THE GREAT FALLS AND LEWISTOWN AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. AGAIN...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE ON THE LOW
SIDE...GENERALLY AROUND 1/2 INCH...WITH A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS
UP TO AN INCH. IN SOUTHWEST MT...THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN UNSETTLED...ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THE COOLING TREND
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. BRUSDA
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LATEST FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE
TO DEPICT AN UNSETTLED, COOL PATTERN FOR OUR REGION FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. FROM LATE MON THROUGH AT LEAST WED, CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST
MT WILL BE IN TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THE DEEP LONGWAVE TROF
EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA BACK INTO THE CENTRAL US AND BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. THAT WILL KEEP
US IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL DRAW COLDER AIRMASSES FROM
UPPER BC/ALB, RATHER THAN MORE RELATIVELY MILD PACIFIC AIR.
INTERMITTENT BANDS OF MOISTURE TRAVERSING THE FLOW WILL LEAD TO
SEVERAL PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH WED EVE, BUT SNOW COVERAGE
WILL BE SPOTTY, ESPECIALLY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. AS THE BANDS TAKE
RANDOM PATHS THROUGH OUR AREA, MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH WERE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT YESTERDAY ON MOVING THE PACIFIC RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON THURS ARE NOW LESS CERTAIN ON THAT OCCURRING.
THE ECMWF INDICATES THE RIDGE WILL GET HERE BUT MUCH DIMINISHED IN
STRENGTH AS A SHORTWAVE TROF CUTS THROUGH THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND
MOVES EAST OF ROCKY MTN FRONT BY THURS NIGHT. THE GFS IS LESS
OPTIMISTIC ON THE RIDGE EVEN MAKING IT HERE, AS IT SHOWS THE SAME
SHORTWAVE SLICING THROUGH THE RIDGE WHILE IT`S STILL IN WA/OR. THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE AS THE ECMWF TAKES THE SHORTWAVE
STRAIGHT ACROSS THE STATE, BRINGING WIDESPREAD MIX OF RAIN/SNOW ON
FRI FOLLOWED BY WEAK RIDGING ON SAT. MEANWHILE, THE GFS SLOWLY
PUSHES THE SHORTWAVE INTO ID/UT AND BRINGS ITS RAIN/SNOW ONLY AS
FAR EAST AS THE INTERSTATE 15 CORRIDOR, KEEPING PRECIP THERE
THROUGH SAT. FURTHER CHANGES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE LIKELY, BUT
FOR NOW OUR FORECAST DETAILS LEAN MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF MODEL.
CLOSEST AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS IS IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES.
BOTH MODELS ARE BACKING OFF ON EARLIER FORECASTS OF MILD TEMPS FOR
THURS AND FRI, INSTEAD NOW PROJECTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S FROM THURS THROUGH SAT.
WARANAUSKAS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 23 34 18 30 / 10 10 40 30
CTB 22 32 17 27 / 10 30 40 30
HLN 18 28 13 25 / 40 20 30 40
BZN 11 25 4 21 / 20 20 20 20
WEY 8 22 -3 19 / 40 30 20 10
DLN 10 22 3 17 / 30 20 20 20
HVR 24 34 19 28 / 20 40 30 30
LWT 19 32 16 27 / 10 10 40 50
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
307 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
CURRENTLY SEEING ABOUT A 10-15 DEGREE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE RIDGES
AND THE VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING. A LOW LEVEL JET OF ABOUT 30-35
KTS IS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. IN THE VALLEYS...CALM WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE
LEAD TO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE HAS MOVED OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH LOW PRESSURE BACK TO
THE WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS
THE SURFACE LOW TO THE WEST MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST.
THESE WINDS WILL ADVECT IN WARM AIR AND MOISTURE. FOR HIGHS TODAY
WENT A BIT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE WITH THE CONTINUED WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HIGHS HAVE SOARED WELL ABOVE
FORECAST HIGHS THANKS TO STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND AN AMPLE SUPPLY
ON INSOLATION...AND DO NOT EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH DIFFERENT
TODAY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE SOME LATE IN THE DAY BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY IN THE LOW 70S.
PW VALUES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 0.7-0.9 INCH RANGE LATE
TONIGHT...WHICH IS NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.
MODEL SOUNDING INDICATE THAT THE MOISTURE IS LIMITED ABOVE 700 MB
AND THEREFORE EXPECT ANY RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT. MODELS DO NOT SHOW
THE BEST MOISTURE MOVING IN UNTIL AFTER 06Z AND HAVE BEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE PLATEAU LATE TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW THAT SATURATION WILL BE
A SLOW PROCESS FROM WEST TO EAST AND SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST
TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA MAY NOT EXPERIENCE ANY
PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER 12Z. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE
AVERAGE TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL
MIXED. LOWS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
WEAK COLD FRONT PROGGED INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. MODELS TRENDING
TOWARD STRETCHING THE FRONT OUT ALONG THE TN/KY BORDER...LESSENING
IT`S IMPACT AND IT`S PRECIP CHANCES OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL
THEREFORE...KEEP LIKELY POPS OVER NORTHERN THIRD WITH DECREASING
POPS AS YOU MOVE FURTHER SOUTH. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE
AREA INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MAIN SYSTEM OF CONCERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WILL BE A STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH AROUND THE
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE
IN WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT FOR CHANCE POPS TUESDAY. MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SLOWING THIS SYSTEM AND IT NOW APPEARS TO
MOVE IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE
THEREFORE...LOWERED POPS TUESDAY EVENING...INCREASING POPS THROUGH
THE NIGHT FOR LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS BY SUNRISE. A STRONG 850MB
JET OF 50 TO 60KTS ACCOMPANIES THIS FRONT AND AS IT MOVES
IN...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND NORMALLY FAVORED FOOTHILLS. A WIND ADVISORY
AND POTENTIALLY A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. INSTABILITY UNIMPRESSIVE...BUT SPEED SHEAR AND UPPER JET
DYNAMICS MAY ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THE STRONG WINDS
MAY LIMIT VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION...BUT ANY SHOWER OR
STORM THAT DOES REACH INTO THE HIGHER WINDS MAY PRODUCE STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE FRONT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WITH A BRIEF RIDGE
BUILDING IN FOR THE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 68 55 66 53 / 10 40 40 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 69 53 61 47 / 0 40 50 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 67 54 61 47 / 10 50 50 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 66 45 58 43 / 0 30 60 30
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
MA/MJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1003 PM MST SAT JAN 30 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY AND MILD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AS A STRONG
WINTER STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE TO OUR WEST. THIS STORM WILL
ARRIVE MONDAY...PRODUCING VERY STRONG WINDS AND USHERING IN MUCH
COLDER WEATHER. SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
GILA EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDING INTO
THE BOOTHEEL REGION OF NEW MEXICO. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THE SNOW
AND RAIN EAST ALONG WITH POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE
DAY. A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES DROP TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DRIER
WEATHER AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.UPDATED DISCUSSION...
DECIDED TO CANCEL WIND ADVISORY FOR WESTERN OTERO COUNTY AND EASTERN
EL PASO COUNTY. CAN`T FIND ANY MESONET SITES ALONG EAST SLOPES OF
FRANKLINS OVER 20 MPH GUSTS AT THIS TIME. EAST SLOPES OF ORGANS
CLOSER TO ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT HRRR SHOWS WINDS DIMINISHING...
HOWEVER THEY PICK UP SOME AGAIN AFTER 09Z. EAST SLOPES OF THE SACS
STILL SHOW GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. HRRR SHOWS GUSTS IN THIS AREA OVER 50
MPH THROUGH ABOUT 10Z BEFORE DIMINISHING...AND MOUNTAIN TOP WIND
FLOW DOESN`T REALLY BEGIN WEAKENING UNTIL 16Z.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE LATEST SUITE OF FORECAST MODELS HAS
ARRIVED WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EVOLUTION OF OUR UPCOMING
WINTER STORM SYSTEM.
THEREFORE WE WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
REGARDING PRECIP TIMING AND LOCATION TO INCLUDE A FEW LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO TUESDAY.
IN GENERAL STRONG ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN
CONUS BEING AIDED BY AN IMPRESSIVE 130 KNOT EASTERN PACIFIC JET
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. A COMBINATION OF HIGHER SPEED WESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING SOUTHERN COLORADO IS
HELPING TO DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND
AN ASSOCIATED LEE SIDE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. THIS HAS TIGHTENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS RESULTING IN STRONG AND GUSTY
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THESE WINDS ARE ALSO BEING
HELPED ALONG BY THE MIXING DOWN OF STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS UP AROUND 700 MB. THIS SUPPORTS THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY
THAT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS EAST
SLOPE AREAS OF OTERO AND EL PASO COUNTIES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BEGIN TO RELAX LATER TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW AND LEE
TROUGH SHIFT EAST...HOWEVER THE 800-700 MB FLOW WILL REMAIN
STRONG OVERNIGHT...HENCE THE CONTINUATION OF THE WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE SACRAMENTOS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
FOR SUNDAY A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO FORM ALONG THE WEST
COAST AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE
PACIFIC JET. WHILE LOCALLY THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
WEAKER THAN TODAY...STRONG FLOW IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
AS A RESULT WINDS WILL LIKELY BE ALMOST AS STRONG SUNDAY AS THEY
WERE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE WITH
AFTERNOON READINGS AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL
PUSH RH VALUES DOWN RESULTING IN AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER RISK.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL DEEPEN FURTHER
AS IT APPROACHES THE 4 CORNERS REGION. WHILE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WILL NOT BE VERY PLENTIFUL WITH THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM...WESTERN
ZONES WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE APPROACHING
JET. THE RESULTING LIFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE LOWLAND
RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW PRIOR TO SUNRISE MONDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME NEW SURFACE CYCLOGENISIS WILL BE TAKING PLACE OVER
NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EAST MONDAY DRAGGING
A FAIRLY POTENT PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. ADDITIONAL LIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE PRECIP
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES AND SHOULD HELP GENERATE AT
LEAST SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR POINTS EAST. AT THE SAME TIME
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FLOW IN BEHIND THE FRONT HELPING TO LOWER
SNOW LEVELS ACROSS THE GILA FROM AROUND 7000 FEET TO BETWEEN 4000
AND 5000 FEET BY MIDDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FEET AND 1 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE 5000
FEET ACROSS THE GILA. MEANWHILE SNOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
SACRAMENTOS DURING THE DAY MONDAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE MOSTLY
USED UP BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM ARRIVES ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES
MEANING LESSER SNOW TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL FALL OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SACRAMENTOS.
THE OTHER BIG IMPACT FROM THIS APPROACHING WINTER STORM WILL BE
EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS FOR JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK THE JET WILL BE NOSING INTO THE BOOTHEEL REGION
WITH 700 MB WINDS OF 60 TO 70 KNOTS AND 850 MB FLOW OF 40 KNOTS
PLUS. THESE ELEVATED WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING EAST AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. JUST ABOUT ALL THE MODELS SUPPORT
SURFACE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 60 MPH OR MORE ALONG
AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN
PLACE FOR ALL BUT THE GILA REGION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY AS
THESE WIND SPEEDS COULD CERTAINLY CAUSE DAMAGE. EVEN IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT
MEANING THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. OVER THE GILA WINDS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO RESULT IN
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. IT IS NOT YET CLEAR IF BLIZZARD
CRITERIA WILL BE MET...BUT REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW WILL
BE LIKELY. IN ADDITION BLOWING DUST WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR THE
LOWLANDS MONDAY AS THE STRONG WINDS MOVE THROUGH AND VISIBILITIES
DROP.
BY TUESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING EAST ALLOWING FOR
LIGHTER WINDS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPS. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER
INTO TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GILA AND SACRAMENTOS AS
MODELS NOW SHOW SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY TRACKING IN ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL BASICALLY KEEP US UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH AND THE COLDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. WHILE DRY WEATHER WILL ENSUE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH ONLY A SLOW DAY TO DAY
MODERATION EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 31/00Z-01/00Z...
P6SM FEW150-200 SCT200-250 THRU PD. WINDS WILL BE 240-270 AROUND 15-
20G30KTS THRU NIGHT WITH STRONGEST WINDS ON EASTERN SLOPES...THEN
INCREASING TO 20-25G35KTS AFT 16Z. AREAS OF 3-5SM BLDU POSSIBLE AFT
18Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH OFF THE WEST
COAST WILL LEAD TO WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY WILL WARM UP ONCE AGAIN TO MID 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE
LOWLANDS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 15 PERCENT WITH THE
LOWEST RH`S EAST BUT WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH GOING AND EVALUATE AGAIN IN THE MORNING. COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH MONDAY WITH SOME LOWLAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE GILA.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DECREASING WINDS EACH DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 49 73 50 56 / 0 0 0 30
SIERRA BLANCA 40 71 38 64 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 35 69 45 52 / 0 0 0 30
ALAMOGORDO 39 68 44 53 / 0 0 0 40
CLOUDCROFT 30 49 32 33 / 0 0 10 80
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 40 68 45 49 / 0 0 0 50
SILVER CITY 32 58 33 36 / 0 0 60 80
DEMING 35 68 43 49 / 0 0 0 60
LORDSBURG 33 66 40 44 / 0 0 30 70
WEST EL PASO METRO 43 72 46 55 / 0 0 0 30
DELL CITY 43 72 40 62 / 0 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 45 75 44 66 / 0 0 0 10
LOMA LINDA 43 68 43 54 / 0 0 0 30
FABENS 45 74 47 61 / 0 0 0 20
SANTA TERESA 39 72 43 55 / 0 0 0 30
WHITE SANDS HQ 40 70 44 53 / 0 0 0 30
JORNADA RANGE 35 69 43 52 / 0 0 0 30
HATCH 39 69 44 50 / 0 0 0 40
COLUMBUS 37 70 42 52 / 0 0 0 40
OROGRANDE 41 70 44 56 / 0 0 0 30
MAYHILL 38 58 38 42 / 0 0 0 60
MESCALERO 31 50 36 40 / 0 0 10 70
TIMBERON 34 55 37 42 / 0 0 0 60
WINSTON 38 59 35 40 / 0 0 40 80
HILLSBORO 41 65 40 44 / 0 0 30 80
SPACEPORT 38 70 42 50 / 0 0 0 40
LAKE ROBERTS 28 56 31 36 / 0 0 70 80
HURLEY 33 61 34 39 / 0 0 40 80
CLIFF 28 60 33 41 / 0 0 80 70
MULE CREEK 28 61 32 39 / 0 0 80 80
FAYWOOD 35 62 35 41 / 0 0 30 80
ANIMAS 38 69 40 46 / 0 0 30 50
HACHITA 38 69 40 48 / 0 0 10 50
ANTELOPE WELLS 41 69 42 46 / 0 0 10 60
CLOVERDALE 37 64 38 42 / 0 0 40 70
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR NMZ111-112.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR NMZ413.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR NMZ413>416.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
NMZ403>412-417.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR NMZ414>416.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ055-056.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR TXZ419.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR TXZ419.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
TXZ418-420>424.
&&
$$
HEFNER...UPDATED
LANEY/GRZYWACZ...PREVIOUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1106 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION
TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
MANY ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH TODAY WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION
TYPES LATER TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON CLIMBED INTO
THE 40S AT MOST PLACES. THE LAST CHECK OF ROAD TEMPERATURES
WERE WELL INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50. ALSO...THE OTHER MAJOR
PROBLEM WILL BE IF THERE WILL BE PRECIPITATION WILL IT WILL
GET COLD ENOUGH FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION.
MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATER TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST HRRRR AND RAP MODELS DO NOT PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION INTO THIS REGION WHERE IT WOULD GET COLD ENOUGH
FOR FREEZING RAIN...SLEET OR SNOW. CONTEMPLATED ISSUING A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MARATHON UP THROUGH NORTHERN MARINETTE
COUNTY...BUT THE FACT THE MESO MODELS DO NOT PRODUCE PRECIPITATION
MADE ME HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY. IF THE GFS/ECMWF IS
CORRECT...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD LATE TONIGHT FOR SOME FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET OR SNOW THAT COULD MAKE ROADS SLICK.
THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
WENT WITH THE THREE HOURLY TEMPERATURES ON GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
AND CLOSER TO THE MAV GUIDANCE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
30S AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TRACKING AWAY FROM WISCONSIN
SUNDAY NIGHT...ENDING PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST AS
PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA BY
THE EVENING HOURS. NORTH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW WILL BRING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SNOWBELT REGION ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE LOW HEADING
FOR THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE PRIOR 00Z
MODEL RUNS...THE 12Z SUITE OF RUNS HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW. THE LONE EXCEPTION IS
THE VERY SLOW NAM WHICH HAS MOST OF THE CWA DRY THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN EVEN THE PREVIOUSLY SLOWER CANADIAN HAS LATCHED
ONTO THIS FASTER SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS THE HEAVY SNOW INTO THE
AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WILL PUT SOME RESOLUTION INTO THE
TUESDAY POP GRID AND GO WITH LOWER POPS IN THE MORNING...AND RAMP
THEM UP IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...THE VERY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AS MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW GETS GOING ACROSS THE
REGION.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS TRACK THE LOW A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN
YESTERDAYS RUNS...TRACKING THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL LAKE
MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN OVER LAKE HURON INTO CANADA ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WESTWARD JOG MAKES SENSE AS THE NORTHERN STREAM
LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO PULL THE SOUTHERN
STREAM LOW CLOSER WEST. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING
THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING...HOWEVER WITH A RELATIVELY DECENT
CONSENSUS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE DRY SLOT LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST OFF TO THE EAST
ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CONTINUED BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
THE LOW RAPIDLY TRACKS AWAY FROM THE AREA TOWARDS WESTERN QUEBEC
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH THE CONTINUED TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THIS WILL LIKELY MAKE SNOW REMOVAL AND TRAVEL DIFFICULT
THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION A NORTH NORTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT WILL TURN ON THE LAKE SUPERIOR SNOW BELT
REGION...BOOSTING TOTALS ACROSS THAT AREA ON WEDNESDAY. OVERALL IT
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE DRY SLOT
COULD STILL PLAY A ROLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER
WEST...WHICH IS A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE NORTHERN
STREAM LOW. THE DRY SLOT WOULD TEND TO HOLD DOWN
TOTALS...THEREFORE THERE IS RECITANCE IN PUTTING MORE SOLID
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DOWN AT THIS JUNCTURE.
BEHIND THE LOW A COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES PLUNGE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS BELOW ZERO FOR
THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEKEND. SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND LAKE EFFECT WILL
BRING SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES TO THE REGION
FOR THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER THESE
SYSTEMS WILL HAVE MEAGER MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL DURING THE LATE PART OF THE EXTENDED IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016
LIGHT RAIN WILL PRODUCE LOWERING CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BECOME IFR WHERE
RAIN IS FALLING FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND MVFR ELSEWHERE. THE RAIN
COULD CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE IT ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......RDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
613 AM MST SUN JAN 31 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 610 AM MST SUN JAN 31 2016
AMENDED THE START TIMES FOR THE PLAINS FOR THE WINTER STORM
WATCHES. NOTE THAT I MADE AN ERROR ON THE BEGINNING TIME OF THE
WSW FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND CORRECTED IT (START TIME WAS TOO
LATE). /HODANISH
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM MST SUN JAN 31 2016
...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM MOVES INTO THE REGION...
CURRENTLY...
BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH ~700 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WAS LOCATED
CANON CITY EASTWARD INTO KIOWA COUNTY. N OF THIS BOUNDARY LIGHT SNOW
WAS NOTED ON THE PLAINS. A LARGE AREA OF WIDESPREAD SNOW WAS NOTED
OVER THE WESTERN SLOPE AND WAS IMPINGING ON THE CONTDVD. ACROSS THE
REST OF THE PLAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY IT WAS MAINLY CLOUDY. THE SFC
COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST S OF THE CO/NM BORDER.
PRIMARY TROUGH WHICH WILL BRING A GOOD PART OF THE REGION
SIGNIFICANT SNOW WAS STILL OFFSHORE OF THE CALIF COAST.
TODAY...
SNOW WHICH IS OCCURRING NOW IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND MOVE EAST
WITHING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SNOW MAY NEVER
ACTUALLY COME TO AN END WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
MORNING ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY.
MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION AND SPEED OF
BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH EXTENDS EAST-WEST ACROSS THE GENERAL SE COLO
REGION. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EITHER THE LOCATION
AND SPEED/DEVELOPMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY LATER TODAY. HRRR DEVELOPS
BOUNDARY OVER CO/NM BORDER AND MOVES IT NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
A SOLID BAND OF SNOW IS NOTED WITH THE HRRR WITH THE OVERRUNNING OF
THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES NORTH. GFS ON THE OTHER HAND TIGHTENS UP
THE 700 MB GRADIENT ALONG THE US-50 BORDER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
RACES IT NORTH. NOT MUCH SNOW IS NOTED OVER THE PLAINS TODAY WITH
THE GFS. LATEST NAM IS MORE SIMILAR IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND HRRR
AND HAS MOST OF THE SNOW/SOME MIXED PRECIP TODAY GENERALLY ALONG AND
N OF HIGHWAY 50. EC GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR TO THE NAM. BASED ON
THIS...I DO NOT BELIEVE WE WILL ALL THAT MUCH SNOW TODAY GENERALLY
SOUTH HIGHWAY 50. FOR NOW I DREW UP POP GRIDS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
ON THE PLAINS GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE CONTDVD...SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY...AND BE QUITE HEAVY ACROSS THE SW MTNS.
TONIGHT...
HEAVY SNOW WILL FALL IN ALL OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH VERY HEAVY SNOW
FALLING IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. IT IS POSSIBLE UP TO 18 INCHES
OF SNOW WILL FALL IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.
FOR THE PLAINS...THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE NORTH OF THE
PALMER DIVIDE BY LATER THIS EVENING. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW IS
LIKELY FOR THE MOST OF THE PLAINS TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
WILL BE AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM PUEBLO TO EADS...WHERE
1 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
OCCUR ACROSS N EL PASO COUNTY WHERE UP TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
***
ALL OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WINTER STORM
WARNINGS. I PLAN TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATIONS TO THE THE WINTER
STORM WATCHES FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR (6 AM-
ISH)
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM MST SUN JAN 31 2016
...MAJOR WINTER STORM STILL ON TRACK...
MODELS FALL INTO TWO CAMPS WITH REGARDS TO THE STORM TRACK AND
HAVE GONE WITH THE GREATER CONSENSUS OF THE NAM...NAM 4KM...ECMWF
AND NMM. THESE SOLUTIONS BRING THE STORM SYSTEM OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN AND ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE OUTLIERS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE THE GFS AND ARW SOLUTIONS
WHICH HAVE SHIFTED NORTH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OPERATIONAL
SOLUTIONS AND TRENDS AS SLIGHT SHIFTS IN THE STORM TRACK COULD
MEAN LARGE DIFFERENCES IN WHERE AND HOW MUCH SNOW MAY FALL OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...A STRONG AND DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO
ON MONDAY BEFORE EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO IOWA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS STORM HAS ALL THE INGREDIENTS...ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WITH WARM AIR OVER RUNNING IN
THE MID LEVELS...UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE
PROFILES...TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL. EXPECT SNOW TO BE
ONGOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY MORNING...SPREAD QUICKLY
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. BASED ON THE
CONSENSUS OF THE ECMWF...NAM...NAM 4KM AND NMM SOLUTIONS...THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL LOOKS TO FALL OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...THE
PALMER DIVIDE...SOUTH INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE THE WORST CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE HEAVY SNOW WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS...GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH WILL PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AND MAKING ROADWAYS IMPASSABLE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT SNOW
INTENSITY TO BEGIN DISSIPATING TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...WITH LIGHT SNOW IN
NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS FAR AS SNOWFALL
TOTALS...MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE MEASURING IN FEET...WHILE
MOST OF THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 COULD SEE 6 TO 12 INCHES...AND THE PALMER DIVIDE SEEING
IN EXCESS OF A FOOT.
AS MENTIONED...SLIGHT DEVIATIONS IN THE STORM TRACK COULD HAVE
MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. IF
THE GFS AND ARW SOLUTIONS AND THEIR FURTHER NORTH TRACK COMES TO
BEING...LESS SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE PLAINS...WITH MOST NORTH OF
OUR FORECAST AREAS...AND PERHAPS NO SNOW FOR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
AREA.
SEE THE WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT SNOWFALL
TOTALS AND TIMING FOR THIS WINTER STORM.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COLD ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH TEENS AND 20S FOR HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
START TO WARM...WITH 30S FOR HIGHS OVER THE PLAINS.
FRIDAY...AN UPPER STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL SEND A
QUICK SHOT OF SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY...WITH MOST PASSING TO
THE NORTH. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 359 AM MST SUN JAN 31 2016
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING AT KCOS AND KPUB AND
SHOULD END BETWEEN 13 UTC AND 14 UTC. THE SNOW WILL RE-DEVELOP AT
THESE TWO SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BECOME STEADY THIS
EVENING. THE SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE TONIGHT AT KCOS AND KPUB. IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
KALS...PERIODS OF SNOW WILL BE LIKELY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AT
KALS WITH MVFR CIGS.
NOTE...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MOST OF TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT AT ALL 3 TAF SITES.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
COZ089-093>099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ059.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
COZ059-061>065-067-069>071-076>078.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR COZ072>075-079>082-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-066-
068.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
COZ083-085>088.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ064.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
520 AM MST SUN JAN 31 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM MST SUN JAN 31 2016
...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM MOVES INTO THE REGION...
CURRENTLY...
BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH ~700 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WAS LOCATED
CANON CITY EASTWARD INTO KIOWA COUNTY. N OF THIS BOUNDARY LIGHT SNOW
WAS NOTED ON THE PLAINS. A LARGE AREA OF WIDESPREAD SNOW WAS NOTED
OVER THE WESTERN SLOPE AND WAS IMPINGING ON THE CONTDVD. ACROSS THE
REST OF THE PLAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY IT WAS MAINLY CLOUDY. THE SFC
COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST S OF THE CO/NM BORDER.
PRIMARY TROUGH WHICH WILL BRING A GOOD PART OF THE REGION
SIGNIFICANT SNOW WAS STILL OFFSHORE OF THE CALIF COAST.
TODAY...
SNOW WHICH IS OCCURRING NOW IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND MOVE EAST
WITHING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SNOW MAY NEVER
ACTUALLY COME TO AN END WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
MORNING ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY.
MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION AND SPEED OF
BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH EXTENDS EAST-WEST ACROSS THE GENERAL SE COLO
REGION. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EITHER THE LOCATION
AND SPEED/DEVELOPMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY LATER TODAY. HRRR DEVELOPS
BOUNDARY OVER CO/NM BORDER AND MOVES IT NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
A SOLID BAND OF SNOW IS NOTED WITH THE HRRR WITH THE OVERRUNNING OF
THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES NORTH. GFS ON THE OTHER HAND TIGHTENS UP
THE 700 MB GRADIENT ALONG THE US-50 BORDER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
RACES IT NORTH. NOT MUCH SNOW IS NOTED OVER THE PLAINS TODAY WITH
THE GFS. LATEST NAM IS MORE SIMILAR IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND HRRR
AND HAS MOST OF THE SNOW/SOME MIXED PRECIP TODAY GENERALLY ALONG AND
N OF HIGHWAY 50. EC GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR TO THE NAM. BASED ON
THIS...I DO NOT BELIEVE WE WILL ALL THAT MUCH SNOW TODAY GENERALLY
SOUTH HIGHWAY 50. FOR NOW I DREW UP POP GRIDS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
ON THE PLAINS GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE CONTDVD...SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY...AND BE QUITE HEAVY ACROSS THE SW MTNS.
TONIGHT...
HEAVY SNOW WILL FALL IN ALL OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH VERY HEAVY SNOW
FALLING IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. IT IS POSSIBLE UP TO 18 INCHES
OF SNOW WILL FALL IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.
FOR THE PLAINS...THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE NORTH OF THE
PALMER DIVIDE BY LATER THIS EVENING. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW IS
LIKELY FOR THE MOST OF THE PLAINS TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
WILL BE AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM PUEBLO TO EADS...WHERE
1 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
OCCUR ACROSS N EL PASO COUNTY WHERE UP TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
***
ALL OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WINTER STORM
WARNINGS. I PLAN TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATIONS TO THE THE WINTER
STORM WATCHES FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR (6 AM-
ISH)
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM MST SUN JAN 31 2016
...MAJOR WINTER STORM STILL ON TRACK...
MODELS FALL INTO TWO CAMPS WITH REGARDS TO THE STORM TRACK AND
HAVE GONE WITH THE GREATER CONSENSUS OF THE NAM...NAM 4KM...ECMWF
AND NMM. THESE SOLUTIONS BRING THE STORM SYSTEM OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN AND ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE OUTLIERS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE THE GFS AND ARW SOLUTIONS
WHICH HAVE SHIFTED NORTH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OPERATIONAL
SOLUTIONS AND TRENDS AS SLIGHT SHIFTS IN THE STORM TRACK COULD
MEAN LARGE DIFFERENCES IN WHERE AND HOW MUCH SNOW MAY FALL OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...A STRONG AND DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO
ON MONDAY BEFORE EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO IOWA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS STORM HAS ALL THE INGREDIENTS...ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WITH WARM AIR OVER RUNNING IN
THE MID LEVELS...UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE
PROFILES...TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL. EXPECT SNOW TO BE
ONGOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY MORNING...SPREAD QUICKLY
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. BASED ON THE
CONSENSUS OF THE ECMWF...NAM...NAM 4KM AND NMM SOLUTIONS...THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL LOOKS TO FALL OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...THE
PALMER DIVIDE...SOUTH INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE THE WORST CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE HEAVY SNOW WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS...GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH WILL PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AND MAKING ROADWAYS IMPASSABLE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT SNOW
INTENSITY TO BEGIN DISSIPATING TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...WITH LIGHT SNOW IN
NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS FAR AS SNOWFALL
TOTALS...MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE MEASURING IN FEET...WHILE
MOST OF THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 COULD SEE 6 TO 12 INCHES...AND THE PALMER DIVIDE SEEING
IN EXCESS OF A FOOT.
AS MENTIONED...SLIGHT DEVIATIONS IN THE STORM TRACK COULD HAVE
MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. IF
THE GFS AND ARW SOLUTIONS AND THEIR FURTHER NORTH TRACK COMES TO
BEING...LESS SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE PLAINS...WITH MOST NORTH OF
OUR FORECAST AREAS...AND PERHAPS NO SNOW FOR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
AREA.
SEE THE WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT SNOWFALL
TOTALS AND TIMING FOR THIS WINTER STORM.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COLD ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH TEENS AND 20S FOR HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
START TO WARM...WITH 30S FOR HIGHS OVER THE PLAINS.
FRIDAY...AN UPPER STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL SEND A
QUICK SHOT OF SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY...WITH MOST PASSING TO
THE NORTH. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 359 AM MST SUN JAN 31 2016
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING AT KCOS AND KPUB AND
SHOULD END BETWEEN 13 UTC AND 14 UTC. THE SNOW WILL RE-DEVELOP AT
THESE TWO SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BECOME STEADY THIS
EVENING. THE SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE TONIGHT AT KCOS AND KPUB. IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
KALS...PERIODS OF SNOW WILL BE LIKELY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AT
KALS WITH MVFR CIGS.
NOTE...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MOST OF TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT AT ALL 3 TAF SITES.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR COZ059-061>065-067-069>071-076>078-083-085>089-093>099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ059.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR COZ066-072>075-079>082-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-068.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ064-
066.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
900 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY. AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW...AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL.
AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHICH
MAY BEGIN AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF A WINTRY MIX.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 900 AM EST...MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS CLOUDY.
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN SOME OF THE SHELTERED
HIGHLAND VALLEYS TO THE UPPER 30S IN PARTS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AN VARIABLE. RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ECHOES ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA...MOST
OF WHICH IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER...KSLK REPORTED SNOW
LAST HOUR SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANGE OF PRECIPITATION OVER
NORTHERN AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD US FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
LEFT AFTERNOON FORECAST AS IS WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
AREAS AS BEST FORCING LOOKS TO STAY NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
TO EXPAND INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY RAIN...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE MILD
AS AREA IS IN WARM SECTOR OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE STORM/S COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. AHEAD AND ALONG OF THIS SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SOME RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS
WILL BE FAIRLY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE AND LIGHT IN INTENSITY...AND
THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AND
CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING. WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/PRECIP...TEMPS WILL BE HELD UP
TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE...WITH LOWS THIS
EVENING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. MOST SPOTS WILL SEE TEMPS
HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE TONIGHT. HIGHS ON MONDAY LOOK TO BE IN
THE 40S TO NEAR 50 ON MON MORNING...AND START TO FALL ON MON AFTN
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...ANY PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY END WITH CAA AND
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 20S FOR MON NIGHT. IT SHOULD BE DRY WITH
CLEARING SKIES FOR MON NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. WITH
COLDER TEMPS ALOFT...IT WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS BACK
IN THE 30S...AND SOME UPPER 20S OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. IN
ADDITION...SKIES LOOK TO BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
POTENT STORM IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT THEN TRACK
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
WARM FRONT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
TUESDAY. AS A RETREATING SURFACE HIGH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...THE
THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH WET BULB PROCESS STILL
SUGGESTS A WINTRY MIXTURE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CURRENT HWO LOOKS GOOD
WITH NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. IN FACT...VALLEY
LOCATIONS WILL BE APPROACHING OR JUST EXCEEDING THE 50F DEGREE MARK.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL COME WITH A RATHER SOGGY DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION. LATEST GEFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PWAT ANOMALIES OF 3-4
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL SO MODERATE TO A PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL JET MAGNITUDES OF 60-
70KTS ARE PROGGED AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT SO IF THESE SHOWERS
ARE ABLE TO TAP INTO THIS HIGHER MOMENTUM WINDS...AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL WIND HEADLINES.
AT THIS TIME...SHOWALTERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER POSITIVE TO
LIMIT THUNDER POTENTIAL.
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING AS DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL CUT DOWN THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
RATHER QUICKLY AS SURFACE PRESSURES SLOWLY INCREASE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. PROGRESSIVE COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AS H850 TEMPS DROP
BACK THROUGH THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN AT OR
BELOW -10C INTO FRIDAY. SOME LAKE ONTARIO RESPONSE IS EXPECTED YET
WITH BUILDING SURFACE ANTICYCLONE...BANDS SHOULD NOT PENETRATE TOO
FAR INLAND.
RIDGE AT ALL LEVELS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH A PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER. AS THIS RIDGE SLIDES
EAST DURING SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF
WARM ADVECTION AS DEEP TROUGH UPSTREAM AMPLIFIES FURTHER. BEYOND
THE LONG TERM...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST SEVERAL SOLUTIONS AS WE
MONITOR TRENDS FOR PERHAPS ANOTHER COASTAL EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN. PER THE ENHANCED SATELLITE
IMAGERY...LOWER CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
PORTIONS OF THE KEYSTONE STATE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE WARM
FRONT THAT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY.
PER THE LATEST HRRR REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
FOR A SHOWER TO IMPACT KGFL AS WE WILL PLACE A VCSH DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL DURING TODAY AS DEEPER MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTS NORTHWARD. LATER IN THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF DEWPOINTS INCREASING SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT MIST/BR TO DEVELOP. FURTHERMORE...THIS TOO WARRANTS THE
INCLUSION OF SLIGHT DECREASE IN AVIATION FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
AFTER A CLOSER REVIEW OF THE 06Z GUIDANCE...WE INCLUDED LLWS FOR
TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION
BETWEEN LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW. QPF LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...GENERALLY BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR LESS. SOME ISOLATED LOCAL AMOUNTS OF AROUND A QUARTER
OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
AFTER A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP
INITIALLY...MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. QPF
AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK TO BE A HALF INCH TO AN INCH...WITH
MUCH OF THIS FALLING WITHIN A FEW HOUR PERIOD. THIS
RAINFALL...ALONG WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ALLOWING FOR SOME SNOW AND
ICE TO MELT OUT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...WILL ALLOW FOR SHARP RISES
ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALTHOUGH MAIN STEM RIVERS SHOULD REMAIN
WITHIN THEIR BANKS...LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER AND/OR MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS COULD OCCUR...ESP IN AREAS
WHERE THE GROUND REMAINS FROZEN.
BEHIND THIS STORM SYSTEM...PRECIP WILL END AND TEMPS WILL TURN
COLDER...ALLOWING THE WATER TO RECEDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
628 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS...MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL
BE PLACE OVER THE REGION TODAY. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. AFTER A BRIEF COOL
DOWN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL RETURN A CHANCE OF RAIN
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY BEGIN AS A BRIEF PERIOD
OF A WINTRY MIX IN SOME AREAS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 628 AM EST...A FAST NORTHERN STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE REGION TODAY. WITH FLAT W-SW FLOW IN
PLACE ALOFT...CLOUD COVER IS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS
UPSTREAM /MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL/ MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA...SKY
COVER WILL GENERALLY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS SOME RETURNS OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL NY
EARLY THIS MORNING THANKS TO WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IN
PLACE...BUT DRY LOW LEVELS IS PREVENTING ANY OF THIS PRECIP FROM
REACHING THE SURFACE.
THE ONGOING WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW 850 HPA TEMPS TO RISE
TO 3 TO 6 DEGREES C. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE MILD TODAY...DESPITE
THE CLOUDS IN PLACE. HIGHS LOOK TO REACH THE 40S IN MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME SPOTS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY EVEN APPROACHING
50 DEGREES BY THIS AFTERNOON.
DURING THE DAY TODAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT ATTACHED
TO THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THE BEST
FORCING LOOKS TO STAY WEST OF THE AREA...THIS SURFACE FRONT COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN TO EXPAND INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO
PREVENT ANY RAIN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE STORM/S COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. AHEAD AND ALONG OF THIS SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SOME RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS
WILL BE FAIRLY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE AND LIGHT IN INTENSITY...AND
THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AND
CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING. WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/PRECIP...TEMPS WILL BE HELD UP
TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE...WITH LOWS THIS
EVENING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. MOST SPOTS WILL SEE TEMPS
HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE TONIGHT. HIGHS ON MONDAY LOOK TO BE IN
THE 40S TO NEAR 50 ON MON MORNING...AND START TO FALL ON MON AFTN
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...ANY PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY END WITH CAA AND
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 20S FOR MON NIGHT. IT SHOULD BE DRY WITH
CLEARING SKIES FOR MON NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. WITH
COLDER TEMPS ALOFT...IT WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS BACK
IN THE 30S...AND SOME UPPER 20S OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. IN
ADDITION...SKIES LOOK TO BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
POTENT STORM IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT THEN TRACK
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
WARM FRONT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
TUESDAY. AS A RETREATING SURFACE HIGH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...THE
THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH WET BULB PROCESS STILL
SUGGESTS A WINTRY MIXTURE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CURRENT HWO LOOKS GOOD
WITH NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. IN FACT...VALLEY
LOCATIONS WILL BE APPROACHING OR JUST EXCEEDING THE 50F DEGREE MARK.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL COME WITH A RATHER SOGGY DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION. LATEST GEFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PWAT ANOMALIES OF 3-4
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL SO MODERATE TO A PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL JET MAGNITUDES OF 60-
70KTS ARE PROGGED AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT SO IF THESE SHOWERS
ARE ABLE TO TAP INTO THIS HIGHER MOMENTUM WINDS...AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL WIND HEADLINES.
AT THIS TIME...SHOWALTERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER POSITIVE TO
LIMIT THUNDER POTENTIAL.
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING AS DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL CUT DOWN THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
RATHER QUICKLY AS SURFACE PRESSURES SLOWLY INCREASE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. PROGRESSIVE COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AS H850 TEMPS DROP
BACK THROUGH THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN AT OR
BELOW -10C INTO FRIDAY. SOME LAKE ONTARIO RESPONSE IS EXPECTED YET
WITH BUILDING SURFACE ANTICYCLONE...BANDS SHOULD NOT PENETRATE TOO
FAR INLAND.
RIDGE AT ALL LEVELS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH A PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER. AS THIS RIDGE SLIDES
EAST DURING SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF
WARM ADVECTION AS DEEP TROUGH UPSTREAM AMPLIFIES FURTHER. BEYOND
THE LONG TERM...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST SEVERAL SOLUTIONS AS WE
MONITOR TRENDS FOR PERHAPS ANOTHER COASTAL EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN. PER THE ENHANCED SATELLITE
IMAGERY...LOWER CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
PORTIONS OF THE KEYSTONE STATE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE WARM
FRONT THAT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY.
PER THE LATEST HRRR REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
FOR A SHOWER TO IMPACT KGFL AS WE WILL PLACE A VCSH DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL DURING TODAY AS DEEPER MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTS NORTHWARD. LATER IN THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF DEWPOINTS INCREASING SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT MIST/BR TO DEVELOP. FURTHERMORE...THIS TOO WARRANTS THE
INCLUSION OF SLIGHT DECREASE IN AVIATION FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
AFTER A CLOSER REVIEW OF THE 06Z GUIDANCE...WE INCLUDED LLWS FOR
TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION
BETWEEN LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW. QPF LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...GENERALLY BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR LESS. SOME ISOLATED LOCAL AMOUNTS OF AROUND A QUARTER
OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
AFTER A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP
INITIALLY...MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. QPF
AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK TO BE A HALF INCH TO AN INCH...WITH
MUCH OF THIS FALLING WITHIN A FEW HOUR PERIOD. THIS
RAINFALL...ALONG WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ALLOWING FOR SOME SNOW AND
ICE TO MELT OUT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...WILL ALLOW FOR SHARP RISES
ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALTHOUGH MAIN STEM RIVERS SHOULD REMAIN
WITHIN THEIR BANKS...LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER AND/OR MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS COULD OCCUR...ESP IN AREAS
WHERE THE GROUND REMAINS FROZEN.
BEHIND THIS STORM SYSTEM...PRECIP WILL END AND TEMPS WILL TURN
COLDER...ALLOWING THE WATER TO RECEDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
603 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
A warm front will lift north through the area this morning, followed
by a weak surface low progressing from SW to NE across northwestern
IL. Clouds will increase and thicken this morning, with spotty
showers possible during the day. High res models are indicating very
little in the way of coverage and rain amounts in general, so have
reduced the morning PoPs to slight chance, and reduced the overall
rain chance numbers this afternoon as well. Later this afternoon,
eastern areas may have a little better chance of rain as the cold
front pushes east toward the Indiana border and lift is enhanced,
per model omega fields.
High temps will still climb well above normal, as south winds fuel
low level warm advection behind the warm frontal passage. High temps
should reach into the 50s in most areas, with low 60s possible from
Effingham to Lawrenceville.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
Main focus continues to revolve around the Tuesday storm system.
Initial wave will be coming onshore of the Pacific Northwest
shortly, and will dig significantly toward southern California this
evening before tracking east. Main surface low expected to develop
in the vicinity of Las Vegas later today and track east to along the
Kansas/Oklahoma border Monday evening. The model guidance is
relatively clustered along the track into southeast Kansas by
Tuesday morning. At this point, the NAM diverges significantly and
tracks the low into south central Illinois by Tuesday evening, while
the remaining guidance is favoring more of a track in the Quincy-
Chicago corridor. Thus, the NAM was discarded. Some further track
fluctuations are possible as the wave starts to get sampled by the
upper air network later today, but a more northern track has been
persisting the last 3 model runs.
Forecast soundings continue to favor a rain/snow/sleet mix in the
onset of precipitation late Monday evening across the far northern
CWA, before transitioning to an all-rain scenario between 3-6 am.
Some minor accumulations of snow and sleet are possible north of a
Galesburg to Bloomington line by sunrise. As the warm front lifts
northward, focus shifts to the warm sector and potential
thunderstorm development. Latest SPC Day3 outlook has a marginal
risk of severe storms as far north as Champaign/Danville and a
slight risk up to around Newton. GFS continues to maintain a few
hundred J/kg of MUCAPE and some very significant 0-6km shear (75-80
knots) especially over the eastern CWA. The ECMWF is not quite as
far north with the surface low (Kankakee vs. Rockford at 6 pm
Tuesday), and keeps more of the better parameters a bit further
south. Thus, will mainly limit thunder mention to areas south of a
Shelbyville to Danville line. With the front approaching the Indiana
border by 6 pm, left the thunder mention out for the evening.
Post-front, concern becomes with the dry slot and the deformation
zone that extends southwest from the low. Went with the slower ECMWF
in bringing in the dry slot, and went with healthy chance PoP`s in
the evening, but tailed them back overnight in most areas. The
northern CWA may be scraped by the deformation zone as the system
pulls away, so chance PoP`s were kept there overnight. A transition
to snow will occur there as the precipitation ends, but little
accumulation is expected.
The remainder of the forecast period will be dominated by deep long
wave troughs moving through the central U.S. into the weekend. This
will bring periods of cooler conditions. The GFS would suggest a
more substantial cold snap late in the weekend, but with the
strength of the associated upper low still in question, will keep
temperatures a tad below seasonal normals.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
A warm front located across Peoria and extending east just north
of Bloomington will continue to lift north early this morning.
Southerly winds have developed south of the warm front at all
terminal sites. Sustained wind speeds will increase to 14-18kt
with gusts of 25-30kt this morning, mainly east of Peoria.
An early look at the ILX 12z sounding shows LLWS conditions, with
40kt at 800FT AGL from the SW. Have included LLWS through mid
morning in all TAFs except PIA, where HRRR indicates the LLJ
should not affect. Another forecast concern is the development and
coverage of lower cigs/vsbys with scattered light rain or drizzle.
BMI already dropped to OVC002, and satellite fog products show
stratus advancing north into eastern IL. The last several runs of
the HRRR suggested areas from DEC to BMI east thru CMI will have
the higher probabilities for seeing at least low end MVFR cigs.
Low pressure will track into northeast Illinois late in the day
which will help push a cold front southeast into our area by
the end of the day. The strong southerly winds ahead of the front
will begin to diminish somewhat later this afternoon as the front
approaches and the pressure gradient weakens. The cold FROPA will
shift the winds into the west and northwest after 21z with speeds
of 10 to 15 kts. The cold front should push east of CMI by 02z
with drier air moving in behind the weather system which will
allow for a gradual improvement in cigs tonight.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
641 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
HRRR...RAP AND SURFACE OBS DEPICT A MORE SOUTHERN FGEN BAND MOVING
ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. THIS IS BACKED UP BY SEVERAL HRRR
RUNS. AS SUCH...HAVE PULLED THE CHC POPS SOUTH. IF THE COVERAGE OF
REPORTED PRECIP INCREASES...THEN WILL NEED TO PROBABLY NEED TO GO
WITH LIKELY POPS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
EARLY THIS MORNING A SFC BOUNDARY LAY ACROSS THE CWA. THIS PSEUDO
WARM FRONT/INVERTED TROF EXTENDED FROM A SFC LOW LOCATED OVER SE
KS AND W MO. LIGHT SPRINKLES AND EVEN SOME RAIN HAD BEEN REPORTED
EARLIER WITH A FGEN BAND AS IT ADVECTED NORTH THROUGH THE CWA.
THIS LOW AND ATTENDANT BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA AS A COLD FRONT AND LEAD TO LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE COVERAGE OF POPS
TODAY WITH A POST FRONT FGEN BAND AND AN ADVANCING SFC LOW THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND WILL RESULT IN RAIN FALLING ACROSS
THE AREA. MOST OF THIS RAIN SHOULD FALL ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ZONES...AIDING IN MELTING REMAINING SNOW.
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE HINTING AT TWO AREAS OF QPF THAT WILL
AFFECT THE AREA THIS AM AND THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LOOKS
LIKE THE SPECTRAL...GRIDDED AND CAM MODELS ALL SUGGEST QPF WITH A
POST FRONTAL FGEN BAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. RECENT RADAR
TRENDS ACROSS E NE AND W IA SUGGEST THAT I80 NORTH HAS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR POPS FROM THIS BAND. DECIDED TO GO HIGH END CHC POPS
FOR THIS AS CONVERGENCE AND OVERALL FORCING WILL BE WEAKENING AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...RECENT RAP RUN SUGGESTS
THAT A REINTESIFICATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AM INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF STRONGER FGEN TRANSVERSES THE AREA. HIRES
CAM MODELS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP ON THIS AS WELL. WILL MONITOR
THIS THROUGH REST OF SHIFT TO DETERMINE IF LIKELYS ARE NEEDED.
ANOTHER AREA OF QPF LOOKS TO FORM AHEAD OF THIS FGEN BAND ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY OVER BUREAU
AND PUTNAM COUNTY. THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL...SO THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE POP FIELDS. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT ALL RAIN AT
THIS TIME WITH QPF AROUND 0.10 INCHES. TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP INTO THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
WELL ADVERTISED POTENTIAL WINTER STORM EARLY IN THE WEEK CONTINUES
TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS. OVERALL...THE NORTHWARD DRIFT EXHIBITED OVER
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS CONTINUED IN THE 00Z RUNS...LEADING TO A LESSER
LIKELIHOOD OF HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...OUR FAR NORTHERN IA COUNTIES
REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CONSENSUS AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW AXIS SHOWN
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR THAT AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE MODEL TRENDS OF THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS CONTINUED FOR 00Z/31 WITH
THE GFS STICKING TO THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WITH FASTER SYSTEM
PROGRESSION. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY MIDDLE OF THE ROAD...SLIGHTLY
SLOWER ECMWF AND THEN MORE SOUTHERLY NAM AND CANADIAN/GEM. WHILE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS STILL MODEST TO LOW DUE TO THE UPPER JET AND
TROUGH AXIS STILL OFF THE COAST AND NOT EXPECTED TO BE WELL SAMPLED
UNTIL LATER TODAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH OF A TREND WITH THE
MOST CONSISTENT GFS AND ECMWF BLENDS AND SREF TO SUPPORT A 50
PERCENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL POTENTIAL FOR 6 TO POSSIBLY 8 INCHES OF
SNOW NW OF A CID TO DBQ LINE WHERE A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ALL SUGGEST THE HEAVIEST
SNOW WILL BE DURING THE TUE MORNING PERIOD...WHERE THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR 6 PLUS INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NE IA. WHILE WINDS
WILL RAMP UP FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW TO N-NW AT
LEAST 20 TO 30 MPH BY TUE NIGHT...STRONGER WINDS AND THE NEEDED
SUPPORT OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND ARCTIC AIR IS LACKING WITH THIS
SYSTEM. 00Z ANALYSIS SHOWED 850 MB TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO C OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH NO SUBZERO TEMPERATURES SEEN AT THE SURFACE
OVER THE SAME REGION TONIGHT. WILL THUS HOLD OFF ON ADVERTISING
BLIZZARD TYPE WORDING AND ONLY MENTION PATCHY BLOWING SNOW DUE TO
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES DURING THE MOST OF THE EVENT THAT
WILL BE NON- CONDUCIVE TO CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW.
FURTHER SOUTH...THE NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THERMAL FIELDS WILL
LIKELY SEND THE RAIN/SNOW LINE MUCH FURTHER NORTH...LEADING TO
MAINLY A RAIN EVENT FOR THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
QPF OF A HALF INCH OR MORE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BEFORE A DRY SLOT
MOVES IN NEARLY ENDING THE PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON.
BLENDED APPROACH WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTH...WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD POTENTIALLY SURGE INTO THE LOWER
50S IF THE GFS TRACK VERIFIES. OVERNIGHT...COLDER AIR WRAPPING
AROUND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM SHOULD CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO
ALL SNOW...AND THIS IS WHERE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY
OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WED THROUGH SAT...THE FORECAST MAINTAINS A COLD AND MAINLY DRY
STRETCH WITH SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
IMPACTING MAINLY AREAS TO THE NORTH. HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS MAY BE TOO WARM DEPENDING ON THE
DEPTH AND COVERAGE OF NEW SNOWFALL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS AM WILL TURN
BACK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN RAIN HITTING THE TAF SITES DIRECTLY SO DECIDED TO
KEEP IN THE VCSH MENTION. WILL PUT IN -RA WHEN TIMING BECOMES
CLEARER. OTHERWISE WIND SHIFT WITH FROPA TODAY AND MVFR ARE THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JONES-LINN.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
531 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
...12Z AVIATION UPDATE...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
EARLY THIS MORNING A SFC BOUNDARY LAY ACROSS THE CWA. THIS PSEUDO
WARM FRONT/INVERTED TROF EXTENDED FROM A SFC LOW LOCATED OVER SE
KS AND W MO. LIGHT SPRINKLES AND EVEN SOME RAIN HAD BEEN REPORTED
EARLIER WITH A FGEN BAND AS IT ADVECTED NORTH THROUGH THE CWA.
THIS LOW AND ATTENDANT BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA AS A COLD FRONT AND LEAD TO LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE COVERAGE OF POPS
TODAY WITH A POST FRONT FGEN BAND AND AN ADVANCING SFC LOW THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND WILL RESULT IN RAIN FALLING ACROSS
THE AREA. MOST OF THIS RAIN SHOULD FALL ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ZONES...AIDING IN MELTING REMAINING SNOW.
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE HINTING AT TWO AREAS OF QPF THAT WILL
AFFECT THE AREA THIS AM AND THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LOOKS
LIKE THE SPECTRAL...GRIDDED AND CAM MODELS ALL SUGGEST QPF WITH A
POST FRONTAL FGEN BAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. RECENT RADAR
TRENDS ACROSS E NE AND W IA SUGGEST THAT I80 NORTH HAS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR POPS FROM THIS BAND. DECIDED TO GO HIGH END CHC POPS
FOR THIS AS CONVERGENCE AND OVERALL FORCING WILL BE WEAKENING AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...RECENT RAP RUN SUGGESTS
THAT A REINTESIFICATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AM INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF STRONGER FGEN TRANSVERSES THE AREA. HIRES
CAM MODELS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP ON THIS AS WELL. WILL MONITOR
THIS THROUGH REST OF SHIFT TO DETERMINE IF LIKELYS ARE NEEDED.
ANOTHER AREA OF QPF LOOKS TO FORM AHEAD OF THIS FGEN BAND ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY OVER BUREAU
AND PUTNAM COUNTY. THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL...SO THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE POP FIELDS. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT ALL RAIN AT
THIS TIME WITH QPF AROUND 0.10 INCHES. TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP INTO THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
WELL ADVERTISED POTENTIAL WINTER STORM EARLY IN THE WEEK CONTINUES
TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS. OVERALL...THE NORTHWARD DRIFT EXHIBITED OVER
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS CONTINUED IN THE 00Z RUNS...LEADING TO A LESSER
LIKELIHOOD OF HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...OUR FAR NORTHERN IA COUNTIES
REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CONSENSUS AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW AXIS SHOWN
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR THAT AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE MODEL TRENDS OF THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS CONTINUED FOR 00Z/31 WITH
THE GFS STICKING TO THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WITH FASTER SYSTEM
PROGRESSION. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY MIDDLE OF THE ROAD...SLIGHTLY
SLOWER ECMWF AND THEN MORE SOUTHERLY NAM AND CANADIAN/GEM. WHILE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS STILL MODEST TO LOW DUE TO THE UPPER JET AND
TROUGH AXIS STILL OFF THE COAST AND NOT EXPECTED TO BE WELL SAMPLED
UNTIL LATER TODAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH OF A TREND WITH THE
MOST CONSISTENT GFS AND ECMWF BLENDS AND SREF TO SUPPORT A 50
PERCENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL POTENTIAL FOR 6 TO POSSIBLY 8 INCHES OF
SNOW NW OF A CID TO DBQ LINE WHERE A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ALL SUGGEST THE HEAVIEST
SNOW WILL BE DURING THE TUE MORNING PERIOD...WHERE THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR 6 PLUS INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NE IA. WHILE WINDS
WILL RAMP UP FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW TO N-NW AT
LEAST 20 TO 30 MPH BY TUE NIGHT...STRONGER WINDS AND THE NEEDED
SUPPORT OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND ARCTIC AIR IS LACKING WITH THIS
SYSTEM. 00Z ANALYSIS SHOWED 850 MB TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO C OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH NO SUBZERO TEMPERATURES SEEN AT THE SURFACE
OVER THE SAME REGION TONIGHT. WILL THUS HOLD OFF ON ADVERTISING
BLIZZARD TYPE WORDING AND ONLY MENTION PATCHY BLOWING SNOW DUE TO
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES DURING THE MOST OF THE EVENT THAT
WILL BE NON- CONDUCIVE TO CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW.
FURTHER SOUTH...THE NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THERMAL FIELDS WILL
LIKELY SEND THE RAIN/SNOW LINE MUCH FURTHER NORTH...LEADING TO
MAINLY A RAIN EVENT FOR THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
QPF OF A HALF INCH OR MORE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BEFORE A DRY SLOT
MOVES IN NEARLY ENDING THE PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON.
BLENDED APPROACH WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTH...WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD POTENTIALLY SURGE INTO THE LOWER
50S IF THE GFS TRACK VERIFIES. OVERNIGHT...COLDER AIR WRAPPING
AROUND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM SHOULD CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO
ALL SNOW...AND THIS IS WHERE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY
OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WED THROUGH SAT...THE FORECAST MAINTAINS A COLD AND MAINLY DRY
STRETCH WITH SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
IMPACTING MAINLY AREAS TO THE NORTH. HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS MAY BE TOO WARM DEPENDING ON THE
DEPTH AND COVERAGE OF NEW SNOWFALL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS AM WILL TURN
BACK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN RAIN HITTING THE TAF SITES DIRECTLY SO DECIDED TO
KEEP IN THE VCSH MENTION. WILL PUT IN -RA WHEN TIMING BECOMES
CLEARER. OTHERWISE WIND SHIFT WITH FROPA TODAY AND MVFR ARE THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JONES-LINN.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
517 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
Recent water vapor imagery showing a few weak upper waves moving
east through the Central Plains in rather quick flow, with stronger
ones over eastern Nebraska and western Kansas early this morning.
Light precip has resulted ahead of the Nebraska wave, with slightly
increasing returns on area radars ahead of the Kansas wave. Cold
front associated with these waves was through the western half of
the CWA at 09Z.
Last few runs of the HRRR showing a continued increase in activity
in the local area through the mid morning hours with eventually some
light amounts reaching the ground in northeast Kansas where moisture
is marginally better so have little reason to remove the small POPS
here. Cold air advection backs off through the day but highs will
still be several degrees below Saturday`s. Weak ridging builds in
aloft ahead of the main upper wave tonight, with a resulting band of
modest frontogenesis developing aloft. Moisture quality in the low
levels will likely remain too low for any measurable precip through
the night however. Went on the warm side of most guidance for lows
with high cloud in place.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 343 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
Main portion of medium period forecast is the potent winter storm
system that will affect the Central Plains and specifically north
central and northeast Kansas Monday evening through Tuesday night.
The storm system was still off in the eastern Pacific this morning
and should move on shore later this afternoon or early evening. The
latest trends continue a slight northwestward track while the NAM
the outlier and furthest to the southeast. Even with this slight
change on track the area will still be impacted with hazardous
winter weather. Thermal profiles support all rain across much of the
area Monday afternoon with a mix of rain and snow in the north
central counties. Colder air deepens through the column in the
evening with a change over to snow, but areas of east central and
northeast Kansas will continue with mainly rain through the night.
Mid level frontogenesis sets up across the northern counties Monday
night through Tuesday. Cross sections show some periods of CSI and
CI across the area Monday night and Tuesday leading to enhanced
snowfall rates. The influence of the upper jet and difuent flow
ahead of the approaching wave will enhance upward vertical motion
across the area. Periods of heavy snow are expected Monday night and
Tuesday for much of north central and far northeast Kansas. Again a
quick drop off from a lot of snow to little or no snow is expected
and at this time its still to early to nail this area down.
Generally kept the configuration of the winter storm watch counties
the same as previous forecast where highest confidence is for
significant winter weather at this time. Across the east central
counties mainly rain is expected with this evening with some light
snow on the back side of the system Tuesday afternoon. Transition
area will lay along and west of a Emporia to Topeka line Tuesday
morning before changing over to all snow in the afternoon. Strong
northeast to north winds on the backside of the surface low will
cause considerable blow and drifting of snow and near zero
visibilities at times. The systems moves northeast Tuesday night
however the deformation zone/TROWAL will extend southwest into the
CWA Tuesday evening with continued snowfall.
Another upper trough moves through the Plains Wednesday night and
Thursday, but with little moisture have maintained a dry forecast.
Northwest flow transitions to zonal Thursday with another trough
moving across the Plains Friday with no precipitation expected.
Temperatures will be cooler than normal for the last half of the
week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 517 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
Models continue to advertise some potential for brief MVFR
ceilings early in the forecast. There is however a wide range of
potential of where this should be, and so far neither surface
observations nor GOES-R have detected any where models suggest it
should be, so have too little confidence to maintain a mention.
Winds still on track to weaken toward 0Z with light east wind
developing near the end of this forecast.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Storm Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday evening
for KSZ008>012-020>023-034.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
752 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 752 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
LOW CLOUDS ARE MORE PREVALENT THAN WAS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...AND
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY BE GETTING SPARED OF
THE CLOUDS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WIND INFLUENCE. MODELS WERE NOT
HANDLING THE CLOUD COVER VERY WELL...WITH THE RUC PERHAPS DOING
THE BEST. WILL LOOK FOR THE CLOUDS TO BREAK UP BY MID DAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING IS LOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING AWAY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHILE LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
NATION TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS
BRINGING STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE...CARRYING IN MILDER
AIR. THIS WAS ALREADY BEING REALIZED IN PLACED WHICH WERE NOT
DECOUPLED FROM THE FLOW OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN
THE 50S. DECOUPLED VALLEYS WERE ABOUT 20 DEG COLDER...BUT WILL SEE
A RAPID WARM-UP DURING THE DAY AS MIXING TAKES PLACE.
AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH...ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
ADVECTED NORTHWARD ON ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THIS EVENTUALLY LEADS TO SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THEY WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE
FRONT ON MONDAY...AND A MODESTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
TO START THE PERIOD...EXPECT A WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TO EXIT EASTWARD AS IT RIDES ALONG LONGWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
TO THE CANADIAN EAST COAST...AND THE COLD FRONT WHICH IMPACTED
EASTERN KY WILL HAVE SHIFTED WELL EAST OF THE STATE. RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL THEREFORE BE ON A DIMINISHING TREND
AS DRIER AIR PULLS INTO THE REGION. STILL EXPECTING ALL RAIN TO
DIMINISH BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z TUESDAY.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A MORE CONCERNING FEATURE...A CLOSED 538MB
UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING EAST OF THE 4 CORNER STATES AS OF 0Z
TUESDAY. WHILE MODELS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT OFF ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THIS LOW...THEY ARE ALL AT LEAST IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
IT WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND FOLLOW A NORTHEAST TRACK INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS BY 0Z WEDNESDAY...AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS IT STARTS PHASING OUT. WHILE THE
FEATURE WILL NOT PASS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SPECIFICALLY...WE
WILL SEE QUICKLY DECLINING HEIGHTS AND A DEVELOPING STRONG SOUTHERN
STREAM JET STREAK...WHICH WILL PROVIDE A STRONG PULL OF WARM
MOISTURE AIR INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY TUESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A 996MB SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...STRENGTHENING TO 993MB AS ITS
MOVES NE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY
EVENING...AND THEN TO 990MB AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A POTENT COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS KY TUESDAY AFTERNOON /WESTERN
PORTION OF THE STATE/ THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
/EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE/. HOWEVER...EVEN AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL
FARTHER AWAY TO THE NORTH...LEAVING QUITE A DISTANCE BETWEEN EASTERN
KY AND THE CENTER OF THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...DYNAMICS ALONG THIS COLD
FRONT WILL BE STRONG...WITH HIGH MOISTURE...STRONG FRONTAL
LIFT...AND OVERALL INSTABILITY. THIS COUPLED WITH THE STRONG SHEER
FROM SOUTHERN STREAM JET STREAK...COULD MEAN THE MAKING FOR SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...HEAVY PRECIPITATING...AND ABUNDANT IN
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...AS THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSES
EASTWARD THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...KY WILL GET FARTHER AWAY
FROM THE LOW CENTER...LOSING SOME OF THE BEST DYNAMICS. FRONTAL LIFT
AND INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE DECENT ACROSS CENTRAL KY...AND THE
WIND SHEER WILL STILL BE NOTHING LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE...SO SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE QUESTION THEN TURNS
TO WHAT HAPPENS ACROSS EASTERN KY. MODELS ARE STILL SUPPORTING THE
CONTINUED REDUCTION IN CAPE AND INSTABILITY AS THE FRONT AND MAIN
PRECIP LINE MOVE INTO OUR REGION. WHILE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE...SUPPORT WILL NOT BE STRONG FOR SUSTAINED
DEVELOPMENT. SHEER WILL REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERN...LIKELY RESULTING
IN MORE OF A HSLC SCENARIO AS IT MOVES THROUGH OUR CWA. ANY BOWING
OF THE LIKELY QLCS LINE...ALONG WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS...OR EVEN
HEAVY SHOWERS...COULD BE ENOUGH TO TRANSLATE HIGH WINDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...TO
SAY THAT WE WILL SEE ANY SEVERE STORMS OR SEVERE STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS ACROSS EASTERN KY IS STILL ON THE LOW END OF CONFIDENCE.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
MAINLY WIND GUST CONCERNS IN THE WEATHER STORY AND THE HWO.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH EASTERN KY TUESDAY NIGHT...DRIER
COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN BEHIND DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...AS MUCH OF THE REGION REMAINS UNDER STRONG TROUGHING.
RAIN SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO FALL
TO CLOSER TO SEASONABLE NORMALS FOR THURSDAY AND INTO THE START OF
THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD TAKE HOLD THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY.&&
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 734 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
A CLOUD DECK FROM 2.5-3.5K FEET WAS OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE AREA
AT TAF ISSUANCE. THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE NEAR THE VA
BORDER WAS BEING SPARED DUE TO THE DRYING INFLUENCE OF DOWNSLOPING
WIND. MOST MODELS WERE NOT HANDLING THESE CLOUDS WELL. THE RUC
WAS PERHAPS THE BEST...AND IT WAS SUGGESTING THAT THE CLOUDS MAY
BREAK UP BY MID DAY...LEAVING VFR FOR THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH MOST PLACES
EXPECTED TO BE MVFR OR IFR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS
SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
STRONG WINDS WERE PRESENT JUST OFF THE SURFACE THIS MORNING...WITH
40-45 KTS AT ABOUT 2000 FT AGL. HAVE INCLUDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
IN THE TAFS UNTIL 14Z. DURING THE DAY MIXING IS EXPECTED TO DO
AWAY WITH SHEAR AND LEAD TO GUSTS TOPPING 20KTS IN MANY LOCATIONS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
644 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS. STRONG SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING CA AND WILL BE THE
FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR A GREAT LAKES WINTER STORM MID WEEK AS IT
TRACKS E...THEN NE. OF MORE IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS A SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS. SOME LIGHT PCPN HAS BEEN
DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN NEBRASKA/NW IA WITH THIS FEATURE...AND PCPN
HAS BEEN DEVELOPING FARTHER ENE ACROSS WI TO NRN LAKE MI...AIDED BY
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET EXTENDING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI TO
NEW ENGLAND.
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTN/EVENING. AS IT DOES SO...IT WILL SPIN UP A SFC LOW PRES
WAVE THAT WILL TRACK FROM WRN IL NE ACROSS LWR MI THIS AFTN/EVENING.
WHILE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL FGEN WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT PCPN AT TIMES THIS MORNING OVER FAR
SCNTRL UPPER MI AND ENE ALONG ALONG LAKE MI...THE BETTER CHANCE OF
PCPN WILL ARRIVE EARLY THIS AFTN AS RATHER HEALTHY DEEP LAYER
FORCING REACHES THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE. NRN EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD SHOULD BRUSH THE COUNTIES
BORDERING LAKE MI. BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS AND 1000-850MB THICKNESS
FIELD...PCPN SHOULD BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WITH A TRANSITION TO
MOSTLY SNOW AS LOW-LEVELS COOL SLIGHTLY. EVEN SO...NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION DUE TO MIX OF PCPN AND ABOVE FREEZING
SFC TEMPS...EVEN IF PCPN CHANGES TO ALL SNOW. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE UNDER 1 INCH. WHILE IT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS WARM AS
YESTERDAY...MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S.
TONIGHT...SUBTLE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE A
SFC TROF DROPS S ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO MOST OF NRN UPPER MI
BY 12Z MON. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOISTURE DEPTH MAY NOT BE
SUFFICIENT TO REACH SUB -10C TEMPS CONSISTENTLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EVENING. SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR -FZDZ IF PCPN OCCURS. THE
LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING AND MARGINAL AT BEST INSTABILITY OVER THE
LAKE SUGGESTS NOTHING MORE THAN SCHC POPS FOR -SN/-FZDZ ARE
WARRANTED NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM WEATHER MON/MON NIGHT...AND ALSO
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WILL FOCUS ON TUE-WED TIME FRAME WHEN
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS POSSIBLE.
BIG PICTURE WISE...AN UPPER WAVE DRIVEN 990MB SFC LOW WILL MOVE FROM
NRN IL TO NRN LOWER MI TUE EVENING AND TUE NIGHT. CURRENTLY...THE
CONGLOMERATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL COME TOGETHER TO CREATE
THE STRONGER UPPER WAVE ARE W OF CONUS IN THE PACIFIC...SO MODELS
ARE STILL CHANGING FROM RUN TO RUN. STILL...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...WITH ONLY RELATIVELY MINOR TRACK/TIMING/STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER AND FARTHER NW THAN THE
ECMWF...AND THE GLOBAL GEM IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF BUT A HAIR
SLOWER. EXPECT THE FORECAST TO REALLY MOVE INTO THE FINE TUNING
STAGE ON MON AFTER THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED OVER THE CONUS AND IS MORE
MATURE.
ASSUMING A TRACK SIMILAR TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY SHOWN...SIGNIFICANT
SYNOPTIC SNOW OVER MAINLY SERN/ERN UPPER MI WOULD BE ENHANCED OVER
NCENTRAL AND WRN UPPER MI AS 850MB TEMPS AOB -8C AND NE WINDS
TURNING N THEN NW. IF MODELS VERIFY WELL...WOULD PROBABLY SEE
CONDITIONS THAT WOULD VERIFY WARNINGS OVER MOST OF THE ZONES. SNOW
RATIOS WOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW TEENS SE TO THE UPPER TEENS
NW...WHICH IS ALSO WHAT WOULD HELP BOOST AMOUNTS ON THE NW EDGE OF
SYNOPTIC PRECIP. AS FOR TIMING OF SNOWFALL...EXPECT SNOW TO MOVE IN
TUE AFTERNOON AND BECOME HEAVY TUE EVENING INTO TUE NIGHT. SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING BEHIND THE SYSTEM BUT LAKE
ENHANCED/EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT INTO WED NIGHT. HESITANT TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT. DID INCREASE
SNOWFALL OVER THE SCENTRAL AND E WHILE SLIGHTLY DECREASING OVER THE
FAR NW. ANOTHER HAZARD TO LOOK AT IS WINDS...ESPECIALLY OUT OF THE N-
NNE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS NEAR MAINLY CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT ALL
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE GUSTS AT LEAST OVER 20 KTS.
MODELS KEEP US IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN...WITH ANOTHER COLD SHOT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS MORNING AT KCMX/KSAW AS MVFR CIGS
HAVE NOT DEVELOPED WITH WEAK SFC TROF DRIFTING S INTO UPPER MI.
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATION FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL LEAD TO IFR
OR EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD THRU MID MORNING...THEN VFR WILL
PREVAIL. DURING THE AFTN...MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. WITH SOME INCREASE IN
UPSLOPE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...CIGS SHOULD FALL TO THE
LOWER MVFR RANGE...AND PERHAPS IFR AT KIWD. THERE MAY BE SOME -SHSN
AND POSSIBLY SOME -FZDZ AS WELL...BUT POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN FCST.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
ATTENTION DURING THIS FCST PERIOD WILL BE ON THE MIDWEEK PORTION OF
THE FCST AS LOW PRES TRACKS FROM THE SRN PLAINS NE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL GENERATE A PERIOD OF NE TO N GALES
LATE TUE NIGHT THRU EARLY WED AFTN OVER ALL BUT FAR WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
933 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 923 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
A FEW WEAK REFLECTIVITIES OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA HAVE
DIMINISHED EVEN MORE IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO. LATEST RAP/HRRR HAVE
ALSO BACKED OFF A BIT ON AFTERNOON SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEST. THERE
IS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON SO
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER...BUT WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW. ALSO LOWERED SKY COVER MOST AREAS THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. WE DID INCREASE
WIND SPEEDS TODAY A BIT OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND INCLUDING IN THE
BOWMAN AND HETTINGER AREAS BASED ON RECENT LAMP GUIDANCE AND MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT DEPICT A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. OTHER-
WISE...RECENT HRRR ITERATIONS SUGGEST WE MIGHT NEED TO INCLUDE LOW
POPS FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN ND WITH A LATER UPDATE
IF THOSE SOLUTIONS STAY CONSISTENT IN SUCCEEDING MODEL CYCLES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
A QUIET DAY FOR THE SHORT TERM.
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A
BIT COOLER TODAY...GENERALLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAYS
READINGS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY. SOME OF THE SHORT
TERM MODELS BRING IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH LATER
TONIGHT AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. IF
ANYTHING DOES FORM IT WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND OF LITTLE IMPACT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY WILL FEATURE COLDER TEMPERATURES...BUT
THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION-MAKERS.
AB0VE-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE BASIC PREMISE OF FLOW ALOFT
THIS WEEK...WHICH WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY WITH EMBEDDED IMPULSES SET
TO CROSS THE REGION ON ABOUT WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON THE 00
UTC GFS AND ECMWF. WE HAVE LOW POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW IN PLAY ACROSS
PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND CENTERED ON THOSE TIME PERIODS IN
RESPECT TO THE EXPECTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGES...BUT THERE WAS
ONLY LIGHT QPF GENERATED WITH THE WAVES IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS
OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. THAT IS NOT SURPRISING AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE
DEVELOPING WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE MAY AMPLIFY IN SUCH A WAY
AS TO PROVIDE A ROADBLOCK FOR HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ALOFT TO BE
ENTRAINED INTO THE WAVES OUT OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC /WHICH DOES
OCCUR IN SOME LESS-AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW REGIMES/. THUS...EVEN
IF SNOW OCCURS WITH THE WAVES...IT WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT AT BEST.
TEMPERATURES ARE SET TOO COOL DOWN WITH FORECAST HIGHS FALLING TO
THE BELOW-NORMAL CATEGORY BY LATE WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A
DISPARITY IN HOW COLD IT WILL ACTUALLY GET...WITH THE ECMWF MODEL
MUCH LESS SUGGESTIVE OF AN ARCTIC SURGE FOLLOWING THE FRIDAY WAVE
THAN THE GFS SOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 923 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
645 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. WE DID INCREASE
WIND SPEEDS TODAY A BIT OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND INCLUDING IN THE
BOWMAN AND HETTINGER AREAS BASED ON RECENT LAMP GUIDANCE AND MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT DEPICT A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. OTHER-
WISE...RECENT HRRR ITERATIONS SUGGEST WE MIGHT NEED TO INCLUDE LOW
POPS FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN ND WITH A LATER UPDATE
IF THOSE SOLUTIONS STAY CONSISTENT IN SUCCEEDING MODEL CYCLES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
A QUIET DAY FOR THE SHORT TERM.
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A
BIT COOLER TODAY...GENERALLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAYS
READINGS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY. SOME OF THE SHORT
TERM MODELS BRING IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH LATER
TONIGHT AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. IF
ANYTHING DOES FORM IT WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND OF LITTLE IMPACT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY WILL FEATURE COLDER TEMPERATURES...BUT
THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION-MAKERS.
AB0VE-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE BASIC PREMISE OF FLOW ALOFT
THIS WEEK...WHICH WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY WITH EMBEDDED IMPULSES SET
TO CROSS THE REGION ON ABOUT WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON THE 00
UTC GFS AND ECMWF. WE HAVE LOW POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW IN PLAY ACROSS
PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND CENTERED ON THOSE TIME PERIODS IN
RESPECT TO THE EXPECTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGES...BUT THERE WAS
ONLY LIGHT QPF GENERATED WITH THE WAVES IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS
OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. THAT IS NOT SURPRISING AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE
DEVELOPING WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE MAY AMPLIFY IN SUCH A WAY
AS TO PROVIDE A ROADBLOCK FOR HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ALOFT TO BE
ENTRAINED INTO THE WAVES OUT OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC /WHICH DOES
OCCUR IN SOME LESS-AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW REGIMES/. THUS...EVEN
IF SNOW OCCURS WITH THE WAVES...IT WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT AT BEST.
TEMPERATURES ARE SET TOO COOL DOWN WITH FORECAST HIGHS FALLING TO
THE BELOW-NORMAL CATEGORY BY LATE WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A
DISPARITY IN HOW COLD IT WILL ACTUALLY GET...WITH THE ECMWF MODEL
MUCH LESS SUGGESTIVE OF AN ARCTIC SURGE FOLLOWING THE FRIDAY WAVE
THAN THE GFS SOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1047 AM MST SUN JAN 31 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 610 AM MST SUN JAN 31 2016
AMENDED THE START TIMES FOR THE PLAINS FOR THE WINTER STORM
WATCHES. NOTE THAT I MADE AN ERROR ON THE BEGINNING TIME OF THE
WSW FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND CORRECTED IT (START TIME WAS TOO
LATE). /HODANISH
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM MST SUN JAN 31 2016
...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM MOVES INTO THE REGION...
CURRENTLY...
BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH ~700 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WAS LOCATED
CANON CITY EASTWARD INTO KIOWA COUNTY. N OF THIS BOUNDARY LIGHT SNOW
WAS NOTED ON THE PLAINS. A LARGE AREA OF WIDESPREAD SNOW WAS NOTED
OVER THE WESTERN SLOPE AND WAS IMPINGING ON THE CONTDVD. ACROSS THE
REST OF THE PLAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY IT WAS MAINLY CLOUDY. THE SFC
COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST S OF THE CO/NM BORDER.
PRIMARY TROUGH WHICH WILL BRING A GOOD PART OF THE REGION
SIGNIFICANT SNOW WAS STILL OFFSHORE OF THE CALIF COAST.
TODAY...
SNOW WHICH IS OCCURRING NOW IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND MOVE EAST
WITHING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SNOW MAY NEVER
ACTUALLY COME TO AN END WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
MORNING ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY.
MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION AND SPEED OF
BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH EXTENDS EAST-WEST ACROSS THE GENERAL SE COLO
REGION. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EITHER THE LOCATION
AND SPEED/DEVELOPMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY LATER TODAY. HRRR DEVELOPS
BOUNDARY OVER CO/NM BORDER AND MOVES IT NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
A SOLID BAND OF SNOW IS NOTED WITH THE HRRR WITH THE OVERRUNNING OF
THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES NORTH. GFS ON THE OTHER HAND TIGHTENS UP
THE 700 MB GRADIENT ALONG THE US-50 BORDER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
RACES IT NORTH. NOT MUCH SNOW IS NOTED OVER THE PLAINS TODAY WITH
THE GFS. LATEST NAM IS MORE SIMILAR IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND HRRR
AND HAS MOST OF THE SNOW/SOME MIXED PRECIP TODAY GENERALLY ALONG AND
N OF HIGHWAY 50. EC GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR TO THE NAM. BASED ON
THIS...I DO NOT BELIEVE WE WILL ALL THAT MUCH SNOW TODAY GENERALLY
SOUTH HIGHWAY 50. FOR NOW I DREW UP POP GRIDS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
ON THE PLAINS GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE CONTDVD...SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY...AND BE QUITE HEAVY ACROSS THE SW MTNS.
TONIGHT...
HEAVY SNOW WILL FALL IN ALL OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH VERY HEAVY SNOW
FALLING IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. IT IS POSSIBLE UP TO 18 INCHES
OF SNOW WILL FALL IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.
FOR THE PLAINS...THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE NORTH OF THE
PALMER DIVIDE BY LATER THIS EVENING. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW IS
LIKELY FOR THE MOST OF THE PLAINS TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
WILL BE AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM PUEBLO TO EADS...WHERE
1 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
OCCUR ACROSS N EL PASO COUNTY WHERE UP TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
***
ALL OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WINTER STORM
WARNINGS. I PLAN TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATIONS TO THE THE WINTER
STORM WATCHES FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR (6 AM-
ISH)
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM MST SUN JAN 31 2016
...MAJOR WINTER STORM STILL ON TRACK...
MODELS FALL INTO TWO CAMPS WITH REGARDS TO THE STORM TRACK AND
HAVE GONE WITH THE GREATER CONSENSUS OF THE NAM...NAM 4KM...ECMWF
AND NMM. THESE SOLUTIONS BRING THE STORM SYSTEM OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN AND ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE OUTLIERS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE THE GFS AND ARW SOLUTIONS
WHICH HAVE SHIFTED NORTH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OPERATIONAL
SOLUTIONS AND TRENDS AS SLIGHT SHIFTS IN THE STORM TRACK COULD
MEAN LARGE DIFFERENCES IN WHERE AND HOW MUCH SNOW MAY FALL OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...A STRONG AND DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO
ON MONDAY BEFORE EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO IOWA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS STORM HAS ALL THE INGREDIENTS...ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WITH WARM AIR OVER RUNNING IN
THE MID LEVELS...UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE
PROFILES...TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL. EXPECT SNOW TO BE
ONGOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY MORNING...SPREAD QUICKLY
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. BASED ON THE
CONSENSUS OF THE ECMWF...NAM...NAM 4KM AND NMM SOLUTIONS...THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL LOOKS TO FALL OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...THE
PALMER DIVIDE...SOUTH INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE THE WORST CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE HEAVY SNOW WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS...GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH WILL PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AND MAKING ROADWAYS IMPASSABLE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT SNOW
INTENSITY TO BEGIN DISSIPATING TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...WITH LIGHT SNOW IN
NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS FAR AS SNOWFALL
TOTALS...MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE MEASURING IN FEET...WHILE
MOST OF THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 COULD SEE 6 TO 12 INCHES...AND THE PALMER DIVIDE SEEING
IN EXCESS OF A FOOT.
AS MENTIONED...SLIGHT DEVIATIONS IN THE STORM TRACK COULD HAVE
MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. IF
THE GFS AND ARW SOLUTIONS AND THEIR FURTHER NORTH TRACK COMES TO
BEING...LESS SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE PLAINS...WITH MOST NORTH OF
OUR FORECAST AREAS...AND PERHAPS NO SNOW FOR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
AREA.
SEE THE WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT SNOWFALL
TOTALS AND TIMING FOR THIS WINTER STORM.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COLD ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH TEENS AND 20S FOR HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
START TO WARM...WITH 30S FOR HIGHS OVER THE PLAINS.
FRIDAY...AN UPPER STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL SEND A
QUICK SHOT OF SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY...WITH MOST PASSING TO
THE NORTH. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST SUN JAN 31 2016
ROUNDS OF SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE BECOMING STEADY AND MORE WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IFR TO LIFR AT KCOS TODAY WITH PERSISTENT
SOUTH WINDS UPSLOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE PALMER
DIVIDE. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW WILL SPREAD IN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH COULD DROP 2-3 INCHES AT THE
TERMINAL. THERE MAY BE A LULL LATE TONIGHT THOUGH AT LEAST SOME
PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOWFALL MAY CONTINUE...THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVIER SNOW BECOMING WIND DRIVEN WILL SPREAD IN ON MONDAY. THE
HEAVIEST WILL FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS MAY BRIEFLY COME UP
TO IFR DURING THE MORNING ON MON AT KCOS BEFORE DROPPING BACK TO
LIFR IN SN BLSN. SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THE
KCOS AIRPORT WITH ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN 6 INCHES EXPECTED BY
STORMS END TUES.
KPUB WILL SEE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY BEFORE IFR SPREADS IN
THIS EVENING WITH -SHSN. A LULL IS EXPECTED AFTER 07Z...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LESSER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO IS EXPECTED
AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN ANOTHER ROUND IS EXPECTED
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER
THAN 6 INCHES AT THE TERMINAL BY STORMS END TUESDAY MORNING. THERE
WILL BE RESTRICTIONS TO VIS IN BLOWING SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.
KALS WILL SEE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SOME -SHSN
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BRIEFLY DROPPING VIS TO MVFR TO IFR.
MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS/VIS IN SNOW WILL SPREAD IN MONDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
COZ089-093>099.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
COZ059-061>065-067-069>071-076>078-083-085>088.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR COZ072>075-079>082-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-066-
068.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ064.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1102 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
Frontal boundary resting just northwest of the Illinois River
Valley this morning with plenty of southerly flow pushing warm air
into ILX area. Temps well on their way to highs in the 50s, with
areas along and south of I-70 likely to push into the lower 60s
before the cold front moves through later this evening. Have
bumped up the high temperatures a smidge. Area NW of the Illinois
River a little more problematic nearer to the front...but already
approaching 50 in PIA... have bumped them up a couple degrees as
well. Scattered brief sprinkles across the area not likely to
result in widespread measurable precip. So whereas the ground may
be wet north of a line from Jacksonville to Champaign today,
significant precipitation is not expected before 00z, and will
keep the pops low this morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
A warm front will lift north through the area this morning, followed
by a weak surface low progressing from SW to NE across northwestern
IL. Clouds will increase and thicken this morning, with spotty
showers possible during the day. High res models are indicating very
little in the way of coverage and rain amounts in general, so have
reduced the morning PoPs to slight chance, and reduced the overall
rain chance numbers this afternoon as well. Later this afternoon,
eastern areas may have a little better chance of rain as the cold
front pushes east toward the Indiana border and lift is enhanced,
per model omega fields.
High temps will still climb well above normal, as south winds fuel
low level warm advection behind the warm frontal passage. High temps
should reach into the 50s in most areas, with low 60s possible from
Effingham to Lawrenceville.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
Main focus continues to revolve around the Tuesday storm system.
Initial wave will be coming onshore of the Pacific Northwest
shortly, and will dig significantly toward southern California this
evening before tracking east. Main surface low expected to develop
in the vicinity of Las Vegas later today and track east to along the
Kansas/Oklahoma border Monday evening. The model guidance is
relatively clustered along the track into southeast Kansas by
Tuesday morning. At this point, the NAM diverges significantly and
tracks the low into south central Illinois by Tuesday evening, while
the remaining guidance is favoring more of a track in the Quincy-
Chicago corridor. Thus, the NAM was discarded. Some further track
fluctuations are possible as the wave starts to get sampled by the
upper air network later today, but a more northern track has been
persisting the last 3 model runs.
Forecast soundings continue to favor a rain/snow/sleet mix in the
onset of precipitation late Monday evening across the far northern
CWA, before transitioning to an all-rain scenario between 3-6 am.
Some minor accumulations of snow and sleet are possible north of a
Galesburg to Bloomington line by sunrise. As the warm front lifts
northward, focus shifts to the warm sector and potential
thunderstorm development. Latest SPC Day3 outlook has a marginal
risk of severe storms as far north as Champaign/Danville and a
slight risk up to around Newton. GFS continues to maintain a few
hundred J/kg of MUCAPE and some very significant 0-6km shear (75-80
knots) especially over the eastern CWA. The ECMWF is not quite as
far north with the surface low (Kankakee vs. Rockford at 6 pm
Tuesday), and keeps more of the better parameters a bit further
south. Thus, will mainly limit thunder mention to areas south of a
Shelbyville to Danville line. With the front approaching the Indiana
border by 6 pm, left the thunder mention out for the evening.
Post-front, concern becomes with the dry slot and the deformation
zone that extends southwest from the low. Went with the slower ECMWF
in bringing in the dry slot, and went with healthy chance PoP`s in
the evening, but tailed them back overnight in most areas. The
northern CWA may be scraped by the deformation zone as the system
pulls away, so chance PoP`s were kept there overnight. A transition
to snow will occur there as the precipitation ends, but little
accumulation is expected.
The remainder of the forecast period will be dominated by deep long
wave troughs moving through the central U.S. into the weekend. This
will bring periods of cooler conditions. The GFS would suggest a
more substantial cold snap late in the weekend, but with the
strength of the associated upper low still in question, will keep
temperatures a tad below seasonal normals.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
A warm front located across Peoria and extending east just north
of Bloomington will continue to lift north early this morning.
Southerly winds have developed south of the warm front at all
terminal sites. Sustained wind speeds will increase to 14-18kt
with gusts of 25-30kt this morning, mainly east of Peoria.
An early look at the ILX 12z sounding shows LLWS conditions, with
40kt at 800FT AGL from the SW. Have included LLWS through mid
morning in all TAFs except PIA, where HRRR indicates the LLJ
should not affect. Another forecast concern is the development and
coverage of lower cigs/vsbys with scattered light rain or drizzle.
BMI already dropped to OVC002, and satellite fog products show
stratus advancing north into eastern IL. The last several runs of
the HRRR suggested areas from DEC to BMI east thru CMI will have
the higher probabilities for seeing at least low end MVFR cigs.
Low pressure will track into northeast Illinois late in the day
which will help push a cold front southeast into our area by
the end of the day. The strong southerly winds ahead of the front
will begin to diminish somewhat later this afternoon as the front
approaches and the pressure gradient weakens. The cold FROPA will
shift the winds into the west and northwest after 21z with speeds
of 10 to 15 kts. The cold front should push east of CMI by 02z
with drier air moving in behind the weather system which will
allow for a gradual improvement in cigs tonight.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1150 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...SCT SHOWERS...AND DEVELOPING
NORTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS BEHIND A SFC COLD FRONT...DROPPED HIGH
TEMPS FOR TODAY BY SEVERAL DEGREES. NOW HAVE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S FOR THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ALSO INCREASED POPS INTO THE 60-80 PERCENT RANGE IN A SE-NW
ORIENTED BAND OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHEAST/AND EAST-CENTRAL SECTIONS
OF THE CWA. IN THIS AREA...ROUGHLY CENTERED ALONG A FAIRFIELD
IOWA TO QUAD CITIES TO FREEPORT ILLINOIS AXIS...700MB
FRONTOGENESIS AND 0-1 KM CONVERGENCE IS FORCING ASCENT AND A BAND
OF RAIN SHOWERS WHICH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE EARLY
AFTN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
HRRR...RAP AND SURFACE OBS DEPICT A MORE SOUTHERN FGEN BAND MOVING
ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. THIS IS BACKED UP BY SEVERAL HRRR
RUNS. AS SUCH...HAVE PULLED THE CHC POPS SOUTH. IF THE COVERAGE OF
REPORTED PRECIP INCREASES...THEN WILL NEED TO PROBABLY NEED TO GO
WITH LIKELY POPS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
EARLY THIS MORNING A SFC BOUNDARY LAY ACROSS THE CWA. THIS PSEUDO
WARM FRONT/INVERTED TROF EXTENDED FROM A SFC LOW LOCATED OVER SE
KS AND W MO. LIGHT SPRINKLES AND EVEN SOME RAIN HAD BEEN REPORTED
EARLIER WITH A FGEN BAND AS IT ADVECTED NORTH THROUGH THE CWA.
THIS LOW AND ATTENDANT BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA AS A COLD FRONT AND LEAD TO LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE COVERAGE OF POPS
TODAY WITH A POST FRONT FGEN BAND AND AN ADVANCING SFC LOW THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND WILL RESULT IN RAIN FALLING ACROSS
THE AREA. MOST OF THIS RAIN SHOULD FALL ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ZONES...AIDING IN MELTING REMAINING SNOW.
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE HINTING AT TWO AREAS OF QPF THAT WILL
AFFECT THE AREA THIS AM AND THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LOOKS
LIKE THE SPECTRAL...GRIDDED AND CAM MODELS ALL SUGGEST QPF WITH A
POST FRONTAL FGEN BAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. RECENT RADAR
TRENDS ACROSS E NE AND W IA SUGGEST THAT I80 NORTH HAS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR POPS FROM THIS BAND. DECIDED TO GO HIGH END CHC POPS
FOR THIS AS CONVERGENCE AND OVERALL FORCING WILL BE WEAKENING AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...RECENT RAP RUN SUGGESTS
THAT A REINTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AM INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF STRONGER FGEN TRANSVERSES THE AREA. HIRES
CAM MODELS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP ON THIS AS WELL. WILL MONITOR
THIS THROUGH REST OF SHIFT TO DETERMINE IF LIKELYS ARE NEEDED.
ANOTHER AREA OF QPF LOOKS TO FORM AHEAD OF THIS FGEN BAND ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY OVER BUREAU
AND PUTNAM COUNTY. THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL...SO THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE POP FIELDS. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT ALL RAIN AT
THIS TIME WITH QPF AROUND 0.10 INCHES. TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP INTO THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
WELL ADVERTISED POTENTIAL WINTER STORM EARLY IN THE WEEK CONTINUES
TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS. OVERALL...THE NORTHWARD DRIFT EXHIBITED OVER
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS CONTINUED IN THE 00Z RUNS...LEADING TO A LESSER
LIKELIHOOD OF HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...OUR FAR NORTHERN IA COUNTIES
REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CONSENSUS AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW AXIS SHOWN
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR THAT AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE MODEL TRENDS OF THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS CONTINUED FOR 00Z/31 WITH
THE GFS STICKING TO THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WITH FASTER SYSTEM
PROGRESSION. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY MIDDLE OF THE ROAD...SLIGHTLY
SLOWER ECMWF AND THEN MORE SOUTHERLY NAM AND CANADIAN/GEM. WHILE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS STILL MODEST TO LOW DUE TO THE UPPER JET AND
TROUGH AXIS STILL OFF THE COAST AND NOT EXPECTED TO BE WELL SAMPLED
UNTIL LATER TODAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH OF A TREND WITH THE
MOST CONSISTENT GFS AND ECMWF BLENDS AND SREF TO SUPPORT A 50
PERCENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL POTENTIAL FOR 6 TO POSSIBLY 8 INCHES OF
SNOW NW OF A CID TO DBQ LINE WHERE A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ALL SUGGEST THE HEAVIEST
SNOW WILL BE DURING THE TUE MORNING PERIOD...WHERE THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR 6 PLUS INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NE IA. WHILE WINDS
WILL RAMP UP FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW TO N-NW AT
LEAST 20 TO 30 MPH BY TUE NIGHT...STRONGER WINDS AND THE NEEDED
SUPPORT OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND ARCTIC AIR IS LACKING WITH THIS
SYSTEM. 00Z ANALYSIS SHOWED 850 MB TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO C OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH NO SUBZERO TEMPERATURES SEEN AT THE SURFACE
OVER THE SAME REGION TONIGHT. WILL THUS HOLD OFF ON ADVERTISING
BLIZZARD TYPE WORDING AND ONLY MENTION PATCHY BLOWING SNOW DUE TO
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES DURING THE MOST OF THE EVENT THAT
WILL BE NON- CONDUCIVE TO CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW.
FURTHER SOUTH...THE NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THERMAL FIELDS WILL
LIKELY SEND THE RAIN/SNOW LINE MUCH FURTHER NORTH...LEADING TO
MAINLY A RAIN EVENT FOR THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
QPF OF A HALF INCH OR MORE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BEFORE A DRY SLOT
MOVES IN NEARLY ENDING THE PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON.
BLENDED APPROACH WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTH...WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD POTENTIALLY SURGE INTO THE LOWER
50S IF THE GFS TRACK VERIFIES. OVERNIGHT...COLDER AIR WRAPPING
AROUND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM SHOULD CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO
ALL SNOW...AND THIS IS WHERE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY
OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WED THROUGH SAT...THE FORECAST MAINTAINS A COLD AND MAINLY DRY
STRETCH WITH SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
IMPACTING MAINLY AREAS TO THE NORTH. HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS MAY BE TOO WARM DEPENDING ON THE
DEPTH AND COVERAGE OF NEW SNOWFALL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IS BRINGING LIGHT RAIN
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN MIST TO KCID...KDBQ...KMLI..AND
KBRL. THE LIGHT RAIN OR VCSH WILL EXIT KBRL AND KMLI EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN MIST EXITING THE
REGION BY MID AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS CURRENT CEILINGS AOA 1500 FT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO LAST LONG. MIST WITH VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 3 AND 5 SM
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 09 AND 15 UTC. OTHERWISE
TAFS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JONES-LINN.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...UTTECH
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...COUSINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1047 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...SCT SHOWERS...AND DEVELOPING
NORTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS BEHIND A SFC COLD FRONT...DROPPED HIGH
TEMPS FOR TODAY BY SEVERAL DEGREES. NOW HAVE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S FOR THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ALSO INCREASED POPS INTO THE 60-80 PERCENT RANGE IN A SE-NW
ORIENTED BAND OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHEAST/AND EAST-CENTRAL SECTIONS
OF THE CWA. IN THIS AREA...ROUGHLY CENTERED ALONG A FAIRFIELD
IOWA TO QUAD CITIES TO FREEPORT ILLINOIS AXIS...700MB
FRONTOGENESIS AND 0-1 KM CONVERGENCE IS FORCING ASCENT AND A BAND
OF RAIN SHOWERS WHICH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE EARLY
AFTN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
HRRR...RAP AND SURFACE OBS DEPICT A MORE SOUTHERN FGEN BAND MOVING
ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. THIS IS BACKED UP BY SEVERAL HRRR
RUNS. AS SUCH...HAVE PULLED THE CHC POPS SOUTH. IF THE COVERAGE OF
REPORTED PRECIP INCREASES...THEN WILL NEED TO PROBABLY NEED TO GO
WITH LIKELY POPS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
EARLY THIS MORNING A SFC BOUNDARY LAY ACROSS THE CWA. THIS PSEUDO
WARM FRONT/INVERTED TROF EXTENDED FROM A SFC LOW LOCATED OVER SE
KS AND W MO. LIGHT SPRINKLES AND EVEN SOME RAIN HAD BEEN REPORTED
EARLIER WITH A FGEN BAND AS IT ADVECTED NORTH THROUGH THE CWA.
THIS LOW AND ATTENDANT BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA AS A COLD FRONT AND LEAD TO LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE COVERAGE OF POPS
TODAY WITH A POST FRONT FGEN BAND AND AN ADVANCING SFC LOW THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND WILL RESULT IN RAIN FALLING ACROSS
THE AREA. MOST OF THIS RAIN SHOULD FALL ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ZONES...AIDING IN MELTING REMAINING SNOW.
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE HINTING AT TWO AREAS OF QPF THAT WILL
AFFECT THE AREA THIS AM AND THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LOOKS
LIKE THE SPECTRAL...GRIDDED AND CAM MODELS ALL SUGGEST QPF WITH A
POST FRONTAL FGEN BAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. RECENT RADAR
TRENDS ACROSS E NE AND W IA SUGGEST THAT I80 NORTH HAS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR POPS FROM THIS BAND. DECIDED TO GO HIGH END CHC POPS
FOR THIS AS CONVERGENCE AND OVERALL FORCING WILL BE WEAKENING AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...RECENT RAP RUN SUGGESTS
THAT A REINTESIFICATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AM INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF STRONGER FGEN TRANSVERSES THE AREA. HIRES
CAM MODELS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP ON THIS AS WELL. WILL MONITOR
THIS THROUGH REST OF SHIFT TO DETERMINE IF LIKELYS ARE NEEDED.
ANOTHER AREA OF QPF LOOKS TO FORM AHEAD OF THIS FGEN BAND ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY OVER BUREAU
AND PUTNAM COUNTY. THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL...SO THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE POP FIELDS. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT ALL RAIN AT
THIS TIME WITH QPF AROUND 0.10 INCHES. TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP INTO THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
WELL ADVERTISED POTENTIAL WINTER STORM EARLY IN THE WEEK CONTINUES
TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS. OVERALL...THE NORTHWARD DRIFT EXHIBITED OVER
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS CONTINUED IN THE 00Z RUNS...LEADING TO A LESSER
LIKELIHOOD OF HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...OUR FAR NORTHERN IA COUNTIES
REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CONSENSUS AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW AXIS SHOWN
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR THAT AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE MODEL TRENDS OF THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS CONTINUED FOR 00Z/31 WITH
THE GFS STICKING TO THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WITH FASTER SYSTEM
PROGRESSION. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY MIDDLE OF THE ROAD...SLIGHTLY
SLOWER ECMWF AND THEN MORE SOUTHERLY NAM AND CANADIAN/GEM. WHILE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS STILL MODEST TO LOW DUE TO THE UPPER JET AND
TROUGH AXIS STILL OFF THE COAST AND NOT EXPECTED TO BE WELL SAMPLED
UNTIL LATER TODAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH OF A TREND WITH THE
MOST CONSISTENT GFS AND ECMWF BLENDS AND SREF TO SUPPORT A 50
PERCENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL POTENTIAL FOR 6 TO POSSIBLY 8 INCHES OF
SNOW NW OF A CID TO DBQ LINE WHERE A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ALL SUGGEST THE HEAVIEST
SNOW WILL BE DURING THE TUE MORNING PERIOD...WHERE THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR 6 PLUS INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NE IA. WHILE WINDS
WILL RAMP UP FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW TO N-NW AT
LEAST 20 TO 30 MPH BY TUE NIGHT...STRONGER WINDS AND THE NEEDED
SUPPORT OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND ARCTIC AIR IS LACKING WITH THIS
SYSTEM. 00Z ANALYSIS SHOWED 850 MB TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO C OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH NO SUBZERO TEMPERATURES SEEN AT THE SURFACE
OVER THE SAME REGION TONIGHT. WILL THUS HOLD OFF ON ADVERTISING
BLIZZARD TYPE WORDING AND ONLY MENTION PATCHY BLOWING SNOW DUE TO
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES DURING THE MOST OF THE EVENT THAT
WILL BE NON- CONDUCIVE TO CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW.
FURTHER SOUTH...THE NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THERMAL FIELDS WILL
LIKELY SEND THE RAIN/SNOW LINE MUCH FURTHER NORTH...LEADING TO
MAINLY A RAIN EVENT FOR THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
QPF OF A HALF INCH OR MORE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BEFORE A DRY SLOT
MOVES IN NEARLY ENDING THE PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON.
BLENDED APPROACH WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTH...WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD POTENTIALLY SURGE INTO THE LOWER
50S IF THE GFS TRACK VERIFIES. OVERNIGHT...COLDER AIR WRAPPING
AROUND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM SHOULD CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO
ALL SNOW...AND THIS IS WHERE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY
OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WED THROUGH SAT...THE FORECAST MAINTAINS A COLD AND MAINLY DRY
STRETCH WITH SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
IMPACTING MAINLY AREAS TO THE NORTH. HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS MAY BE TOO WARM DEPENDING ON THE
DEPTH AND COVERAGE OF NEW SNOWFALL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS AM WILL TURN
BACK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN RAIN HITTING THE TAF SITES DIRECTLY SO DECIDED TO
KEEP IN THE VCSH MENTION. WILL PUT IN -RA WHEN TIMING BECOMES
CLEARER. OTHERWISE WIND SHIFT WITH FROPA TODAY AND MVFR ARE THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JONES-LINN.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...UTTECH
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1124 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
Recent water vapor imagery showing a few weak upper waves moving
east through the Central Plains in rather quick flow, with stronger
ones over eastern Nebraska and western Kansas early this morning.
Light precip has resulted ahead of the Nebraska wave, with slightly
increasing returns on area radars ahead of the Kansas wave. Cold
front associated with these waves was through the western half of
the CWA at 09Z.
Last few runs of the HRRR showing a continued increase in activity
in the local area through the mid morning hours with eventually some
light amounts reaching the ground in northeast Kansas where moisture
is marginally better so have little reason to remove the small POPS
here. Cold air advection backs off through the day but highs will
still be several degrees below Saturday`s. Weak ridging builds in
aloft ahead of the main upper wave tonight, with a resulting band of
modest frontogenesis developing aloft. Moisture quality in the low
levels will likely remain too low for any measurable precip through
the night however. Went on the warm side of most guidance for lows
with high cloud in place.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 343 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
Main portion of medium period forecast is the potent winter storm
system that will affect the Central Plains and specifically north
central and northeast Kansas Monday evening through Tuesday night.
The storm system was still off in the eastern Pacific this morning
and should move on shore later this afternoon or early evening. The
latest trends continue a slight northwestward track while the NAM
the outlier and furthest to the southeast. Even with this slight
change on track the area will still be impacted with hazardous
winter weather. Thermal profiles support all rain across much of the
area Monday afternoon with a mix of rain and snow in the north
central counties. Colder air deepens through the column in the
evening with a change over to snow, but areas of east central and
northeast Kansas will continue with mainly rain through the night.
Mid level frontogenesis sets up across the northern counties Monday
night through Tuesday. Cross sections show some periods of CSI and
CI across the area Monday night and Tuesday leading to enhanced
snowfall rates. The influence of the upper jet and diffluent flow
ahead of the approaching wave will enhance upward vertical motion
across the area. Periods of heavy snow are expected Monday night and
Tuesday for much of north central and far northeast Kansas. Again a
quick drop off from a lot of snow to little or no snow is expected
and at this time its still to early to nail this area down.
Generally kept the configuration of the winter storm watch counties
the same as previous forecast where highest confidence is for
significant winter weather at this time. Across the east central
counties mainly rain is expected with this evening with some light
snow on the back side of the system Tuesday afternoon. Transition
area will lay along and west of a Emporia to Topeka line Tuesday
morning before changing over to all snow in the afternoon. Strong
northeast to north winds on the backside of the surface low will
cause considerable blow and drifting of snow and near zero
visibilities at times. The systems moves northeast Tuesday night
however the deformation zone/TROWAL will extend southwest into the
CWA Tuesday evening with continued snowfall.
Another upper trough moves through the Plains Wednesday night and
Thursday, but with little moisture have maintained a dry forecast.
Northwest flow transitions to zonal Thursday with another trough
moving across the Plains Friday with no precipitation expected.
Temperatures will be cooler than normal for the last half of the
week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1114 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
Expecting VFR conditions to hold for the forecast period while a
low pressure system organizes over the central rockies late in the
period. While timing of CIGS building will vary a bit, generally
expect that CIGS will lower and increase in coverage by the end of
the period. Winds this afternoon will weaken around sunset as
mixing decreases. Winds pick up during Monday morning as the
pressure gradient begins to tighten. Precip should hold off this
period, so have not added any light precip mention at this time.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Storm Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday evening
for KSZ008>012-020>023-034.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Drake
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
130 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 130 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT STRONG WIND GUSTS THAT
HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
BOTH THE HOURLY AND DAILY MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WERE ALSO
UPDATED PER THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING UP QUITE A BIT FASTER ACROSS THE
AREA THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...MUCH LIKE WE SAW YESTERDAY. A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS ALSO BEEN SENT OUT ADDRESSING THE
GUSTY WINDS...AND THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO UPDATED
TO REFLECT THE STRONG WIND GUSTS WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 752 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
LOW CLOUDS ARE MORE PREVALENT THAN WAS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...AND
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY BE GETTING SPARED OF
THE CLOUDS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WIND INFLUENCE. MODELS WERE NOT
HANDLING THE CLOUD COVER VERY WELL...WITH THE RUC PERHAPS DOING
THE BEST. WILL LOOK FOR THE CLOUDS TO BREAK UP BY MID DAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING IS LOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING AWAY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHILE LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
NATION TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS
BRINGING STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE...CARRYING IN MILDER
AIR. THIS WAS ALREADY BEING REALIZED IN PLACED WHICH WERE NOT
DECOUPLED FROM THE FLOW OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN
THE 50S. DECOUPLED VALLEYS WERE ABOUT 20 DEG COLDER...BUT WILL SEE
A RAPID WARM-UP DURING THE DAY AS MIXING TAKES PLACE.
AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH...ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
ADVECTED NORTHWARD ON ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THIS EVENTUALLY LEADS TO SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THEY WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE
FRONT ON MONDAY...AND A MODESTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
TO START THE PERIOD...EXPECT A WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TO EXIT EASTWARD AS IT RIDES ALONG LONGWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
TO THE CANADIAN EAST COAST...AND THE COLD FRONT WHICH IMPACTED
EASTERN KY WILL HAVE SHIFTED WELL EAST OF THE STATE. RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL THEREFORE BE ON A DIMINISHING TREND
AS DRIER AIR PULLS INTO THE REGION. STILL EXPECTING ALL RAIN TO
DIMINISH BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z TUESDAY.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A MORE CONCERNING FEATURE...A CLOSED 538MB
UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING EAST OF THE 4 CORNER STATES AS OF 0Z
TUESDAY. WHILE MODELS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT OFF ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THIS LOW...THEY ARE ALL AT LEAST IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
IT WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND FOLLOW A NORTHEAST TRACK INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS BY 0Z WEDNESDAY...AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS IT STARTS PHASING OUT. WHILE THE
FEATURE WILL NOT PASS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SPECIFICALLY...WE
WILL SEE QUICKLY DECLINING HEIGHTS AND A DEVELOPING STRONG SOUTHERN
STREAM JET STREAK...WHICH WILL PROVIDE A STRONG PULL OF WARM
MOISTURE AIR INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY TUESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A 996MB SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...STRENGTHENING TO 993MB AS ITS
MOVES NE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY
EVENING...AND THEN TO 990MB AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A POTENT COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS KY TUESDAY AFTERNOON /WESTERN
PORTION OF THE STATE/ THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
/EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE/. HOWEVER...EVEN AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL
FARTHER AWAY TO THE NORTH...LEAVING QUITE A DISTANCE BETWEEN EASTERN
KY AND THE CENTER OF THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...DYNAMICS ALONG THIS COLD
FRONT WILL BE STRONG...WITH HIGH MOISTURE...STRONG FRONTAL
LIFT...AND OVERALL INSTABILITY. THIS COUPLED WITH THE STRONG SHEER
FROM SOUTHERN STREAM JET STREAK...COULD MEAN THE MAKING FOR SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...HEAVY PRECIPITATING...AND ABUNDANT IN
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...AS THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSES
EASTWARD THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...KY WILL GET FARTHER AWAY
FROM THE LOW CENTER...LOSING SOME OF THE BEST DYNAMICS. FRONTAL LIFT
AND INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE DECENT ACROSS CENTRAL KY...AND THE
WIND SHEER WILL STILL BE NOTHING LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE...SO SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE QUESTION THEN TURNS
TO WHAT HAPPENS ACROSS EASTERN KY. MODELS ARE STILL SUPPORTING THE
CONTINUED REDUCTION IN CAPE AND INSTABILITY AS THE FRONT AND MAIN
PRECIP LINE MOVE INTO OUR REGION. WHILE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE...SUPPORT WILL NOT BE STRONG FOR SUSTAINED
DEVELOPMENT. SHEER WILL REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERN...LIKELY RESULTING
IN MORE OF A HSLC SCENARIO AS IT MOVES THROUGH OUR CWA. ANY BOWING
OF THE LIKELY QLCS LINE...ALONG WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS...OR EVEN
HEAVY SHOWERS...COULD BE ENOUGH TO TRANSLATE HIGH WINDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...TO
SAY THAT WE WILL SEE ANY SEVERE STORMS OR SEVERE STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS ACROSS EASTERN KY IS STILL ON THE LOW END OF CONFIDENCE.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
MAINLY WIND GUST CONCERNS IN THE WEATHER STORY AND THE HWO.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH EASTERN KY TUESDAY NIGHT...DRIER
COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN BEHIND DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...AS MUCH OF THE REGION REMAINS UNDER STRONG TROUGHING.
RAIN SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO FALL
TO CLOSER TO SEASONABLE NORMALS FOR THURSDAY AND INTO THE START OF
THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD TAKE HOLD THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY.&&
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 9Z ON
MONDAY. SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN LOWERING. WE CAN EXPECT
CIGS OF 3 TO 4K TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AROUND 0Z
TONIGHT...WITH THE CLOUDS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO IFR OR VLIFR BY
AROUND 9Z ON MONDAY. A LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING
THE TAF SITES BY AROUND 9Z AS WELL...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
516 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS. STRONG SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING ONSHORE OF CA WILL BE THE
FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR A GREAT LAKES WINTER STORM MID WEEK AS IT
TRACKS E...THEN NE. SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST IN SHORT TERM IS NOW
MOVING E ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. SOME LIGHT PCPN HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
ERN IA AND MAINLY THE SE HALF OF WI THIS AFTERNOON WITH THIS
FEATURE...AIDED BY UPR DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET NOW
MOVING INTO SRN QUEBEC.
SHORTWAVE OVER IA WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. IN TURN...ASSOC SFC WILL TRACK FROM SRN
LAKE MI TO NEAR THE GEORGIAN BAY THIS EVENING. DEEP LAYER FORCING
SPREADING INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE PER MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV AND 700-600 MB FGEN HAS HELPED
SUPPORT SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER SCNTRL AND SE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS
NOTED ON AREA WEBCAMS.
BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS AND 1000-850MB THICKNESS FIELD...ANY PCPN
OVER THE SE FCST AREA SHOULD TURN FROM RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX TO
MOSTLY SNOW BY THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVELS FINALLY BEGIN TO COOL. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION (A FEW TENTHS) DUE TO MIX OF
PCPN AND ABOVE FREEZING SFC TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN IF PCPN
CHANGES TO ALL SNOW.
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE FROM NEAR IA MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WHILE A SFC TROF DROPS S ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO MOST OF NRN
UPPER MI BY 12Z MON. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOISTURE DEPTH MAY NOT
BE SUFFICIENT TO REACH SUB -10C TEMPS CONSISTENTLY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EVENING. SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR -FZDZ AT THAT TIME IF
PCPN OCCURS. THE GENERAL LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING AND MARGINAL AT
BEST INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE SUGGESTS NOTHING MORE THAN 20-30 PCT
POPS FOR -SN/-FZDZ ARE WARRANTED NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. EXPECT
MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
MONDAY...WEAK WINDS AND SHEAR WITHIN CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN LIMIT POPS TO GENERALLY NO MORE
THAN 30 PCT FOR WNW SNOWBELTS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 20S NORTH TO LOWER 30S SOUTH CENTRAL UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST INTO CNTRL CONUS WILL
GIVE WAY TO RIDGING OVER WRN NOAM RESULTING IN NW FLOW INTO THE NRN
LAKES AND INTRUSIONS OF ARCTIC AIR INTO OR JUST TO THE NE OF THE
REGION. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE WINTER STORM MOVING OUT
OF THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUE INTO WED.
MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH SFC RIDGING
FROM SASK/MANITOBA THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. WNW 925-850 MB FLOW WITH
850 MB TEMPS AROUND -11C WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT LES.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS WERE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE WINTER STORM EMERGING FROM THE
PLAINS WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCSTS. ALTHOUGH THE GFS
REMAINED A BIT FARTHER N WITH THE PATH...OVERALL DIFFERENCES
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF/GEM OR DEPARTURE FROM GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS
RELATIVELY MINOR. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER
WITH THE SYSTEM.
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE PLAINS STRONG 700-300 MB
QVECTOR CONV AND 290K-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
HEAVY SNOW...ESPECIALLY FROM 21Z/02-06Z/03. QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 0.4
TO 0.7 INCH RANGE ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND 3 G/KG AVAILABLE. EVEN WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT ABOVE THE
DGZ...SLR VALUES IN THE 15/1-20/1 RANGE ARE EXPECTED LEADING TO 12-
18 HOUR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE CNTRL
CWA...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER THE S AND E. SINCE THE WRN CWA
FROM IWD TO CMX WILL BE ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE LARGE SYNOPTIC PCPN
AREA...CONFIDENCE IN REACHING WARNING AMOUNTS WAS LOWER.
ACCORDINGLY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVER THE WEST IS
ALSO LOWER...ESPECIALLY DURING THE PORTION OF THE EVEN WITH NE LOW
LEVEL FLOW. SO...THE WINTER STORM WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR BARAGA/IRON
COUNTIES EASTWARD. LAKE AND UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCEMENT WILL BE LIKELY
INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -10C BY 06Z/WED
WITH INCREASING NNE WINDS. SNOW TOTALS MAY EXCEED 12 INCHES IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF MARQUETTE. THE HEAVIER SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END
OVER THE SOUTH BY 12Z AND IN THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON AS THE SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE/LIFT DEPART BUT WITH THE WINDS...DRIVING WILLL STILL BE
DIFFICULT.
ALTHOUGH THE FCST WINDS ARE NOT EXTREMELY STRONG AND SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN PRREVIOUS FCSTS...CONSIDERABLE BLSN IS EXPECTED NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR AND S CNTRL FROM ESC-MNM.
THU-SUN...A FEW CLIPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES THAT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE CWA.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/POSITION OF THESE FEATURES AND
IMPACT ON LES. COLD ENOUGH AIR WILL PREVAIL FOR PERIODS OF LES FOR
MAINLY NW FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE GFS WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
BRINING COLD AIR INTO THE NRN LAKES BY NEXT WEEKEND COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. WITH
SOME INCREASE IN UPSLOPE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...CIGS SHOULD FALL TO THE LOWER MVFR RANGE...AND PERHAPS IFR
AT KIWD AND KSAW. THERE MAY BE SOME -SHSN AND POSSIBLY SOME -FZDZ AS
WELL...BUT ONLY MENTIONED THIS IN KCMX FCST FOR NOW AS NNW FLOW MORE
FAVORABLE THERE LATE TONIGHT FOR UPSLOPE PCPN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
ATTENTION DURING THIS FCST PERIOD WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE MIDWEEK
PORTION OF THE FCST AS LOW PRES TRACKS FROM THE SRN PLAINS NE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL GENERATE A PERIOD OF NE TO
N GALES LATE TUE NIGHT THRU EARLY WED AFTN OVER ALL BUT FAR WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ004>007-010>014-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
306 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS. STRONG SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING ONSHORE OF CA WILL BE THE
FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR A GREAT LAKES WINTER STORM MID WEEK AS IT
TRACKS E...THEN NE. SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST IN SHORT TERM IS NOW
MOVING E ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. SOME LIGHT PCPN HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
ERN IA AND MAINLY THE SE HALF OF WI THIS AFTERNOON WITH THIS
FEATURE...AIDED BY UPR DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET NOW
MOVING INTO SRN QUEBEC.
SHORTWAVE OVER IA WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. IN TURN...ASSOC SFC WILL TRACK FROM SRN
LAKE MI TO NEAR THE GEORGIAN BAY THIS EVENING. DEEP LAYER FORCING
SPREADING INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE PER MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV AND 700-600 MB FGEN HAS HELPED
SUPPORT SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER SCNTRL AND SE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS
NOTED ON AREA WEBCAMS.
BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS AND 1000-850MB THICKNESS FIELD...ANY PCPN
OVER THE SE FCST AREA SHOULD TURN FROM RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX TO
MOSTLY SNOW BY THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVELS FINALLY BEGIN TO COOL. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION (A FEW TENTHS) DUE TO MIX OF
PCPN AND ABOVE FREEZING SFC TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN IF PCPN
CHANGES TO ALL SNOW.
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE FROM NEAR IA MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WHILE A SFC TROF DROPS S ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO MOST OF NRN
UPPER MI BY 12Z MON. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOISTURE DEPTH MAY NOT
BE SUFFICIENT TO REACH SUB -10C TEMPS CONSISTENTLY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EVENING. SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR -FZDZ AT THAT TIME IF
PCPN OCCURS. THE GENERAL LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING AND MARGINAL AT
BEST INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE SUGGESTS NOTHING MORE THAN 20-30 PCT
POPS FOR -SN/-FZDZ ARE WARRANTED NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. EXPECT
MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
MONDAY...WEAK WINDS AND SHEAR WITHIN CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN LIMIT POPS TO GENERALLY NO MORE
THAN 30 PCT FOR WNW SNOWBELTS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 20S NORTH TO LOWER 30S SOUTH CENTRAL UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM WEATHER MON/MON NIGHT...AND ALSO
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WILL FOCUS ON TUE-WED TIME FRAME WHEN
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS POSSIBLE.
BIG PICTURE WISE...AN UPPER WAVE DRIVEN 990MB SFC LOW WILL MOVE FROM
NRN IL TO NRN LOWER MI TUE EVENING AND TUE NIGHT. CURRENTLY...THE
CONGLOMERATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL COME TOGETHER TO CREATE
THE STRONGER UPPER WAVE ARE W OF CONUS IN THE PACIFIC...SO MODELS
ARE STILL CHANGING FROM RUN TO RUN. STILL...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...WITH ONLY RELATIVELY MINOR TRACK/TIMING/STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER AND FARTHER NW THAN THE
ECMWF...AND THE GLOBAL GEM IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF BUT A HAIR
SLOWER. EXPECT THE FORECAST TO REALLY MOVE INTO THE FINE TUNING
STAGE ON MON AFTER THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED OVER THE CONUS AND IS MORE
MATURE.
ASSUMING A TRACK SIMILAR TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY SHOWN...SIGNIFICANT
SYNOPTIC SNOW OVER MAINLY SERN/ERN UPPER MI WOULD BE ENHANCED OVER
NCENTRAL AND WRN UPPER MI AS 850MB TEMPS AOB -8C AND NE WINDS
TURNING N THEN NW. IF MODELS VERIFY WELL...WOULD PROBABLY SEE
CONDITIONS THAT WOULD VERIFY WARNINGS OVER MOST OF THE ZONES. SNOW
RATIOS WOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW TEENS SE TO THE UPPER TEENS
NW...WHICH IS ALSO WHAT WOULD HELP BOOST AMOUNTS ON THE NW EDGE OF
SYNOPTIC PRECIP. AS FOR TIMING OF SNOWFALL...EXPECT SNOW TO MOVE IN
TUE AFTERNOON AND BECOME HEAVY TUE EVENING INTO TUE NIGHT. SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING BEHIND THE SYSTEM BUT LAKE
ENHANCED/EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT INTO WED NIGHT. HESITANT TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT. DID INCREASE
SNOWFALL OVER THE SCENTRAL AND E WHILE SLIGHTLY DECREASING OVER THE
FAR NW. ANOTHER HAZARD TO LOOK AT IS WINDS...ESPECIALLY OUT OF THE N-
NNE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS NEAR MAINLY CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT ALL
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE GUSTS AT LEAST OVER 20 KTS.
MODELS KEEP US IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN...WITH ANOTHER COLD SHOT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. WITH
SOME INCREASE IN UPSLOPE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...CIGS SHOULD FALL TO THE LOWER MVFR RANGE...AND PERHAPS IFR
AT KIWD AND KSAW. THERE MAY BE SOME -SHSN AND POSSIBLY SOME -FZDZ AS
WELL...BUT ONLY MENTIONED THIS IN KCMX FCST FOR NOW AS NNW FLOW MORE
FAVORABLE THERE LATE TONIGHT FOR UPSLOPE PCPN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
ATTENTION DURING THIS FCST PERIOD WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE MIDWEEK
PORTION OF THE FCST AS LOW PRES TRACKS FROM THE SRN PLAINS NE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL GENERATE A PERIOD OF NE TO
N GALES LATE TUE NIGHT THRU EARLY WED AFTN OVER ALL BUT FAR WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ004>007-010>014-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
124 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS. STRONG SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING CA AND WILL BE THE
FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR A GREAT LAKES WINTER STORM MID WEEK AS IT
TRACKS E...THEN NE. OF MORE IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS A SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS. SOME LIGHT PCPN HAS BEEN
DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN NEBRASKA/NW IA WITH THIS FEATURE...AND PCPN
HAS BEEN DEVELOPING FARTHER ENE ACROSS WI TO NRN LAKE MI...AIDED BY
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET EXTENDING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI TO
NEW ENGLAND.
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTN/EVENING. AS IT DOES SO...IT WILL SPIN UP A SFC LOW PRES
WAVE THAT WILL TRACK FROM WRN IL NE ACROSS LWR MI THIS AFTN/EVENING.
WHILE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL FGEN WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT PCPN AT TIMES THIS MORNING OVER FAR
SCNTRL UPPER MI AND ENE ALONG ALONG LAKE MI...THE BETTER CHANCE OF
PCPN WILL ARRIVE EARLY THIS AFTN AS RATHER HEALTHY DEEP LAYER
FORCING REACHES THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE. NRN EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD SHOULD BRUSH THE COUNTIES
BORDERING LAKE MI. BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS AND 1000-850MB THICKNESS
FIELD...PCPN SHOULD BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WITH A TRANSITION TO
MOSTLY SNOW AS LOW-LEVELS COOL SLIGHTLY. EVEN SO...NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION DUE TO MIX OF PCPN AND ABOVE FREEZING
SFC TEMPS...EVEN IF PCPN CHANGES TO ALL SNOW. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE UNDER 1 INCH. WHILE IT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS WARM AS
YESTERDAY...MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S.
TONIGHT...SUBTLE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE A
SFC TROF DROPS S ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO MOST OF NRN UPPER MI
BY 12Z MON. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOISTURE DEPTH MAY NOT BE
SUFFICIENT TO REACH SUB -10C TEMPS CONSISTENTLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EVENING. SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR -FZDZ IF PCPN OCCURS. THE
LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING AND MARGINAL AT BEST INSTABILITY OVER THE
LAKE SUGGESTS NOTHING MORE THAN SCHC POPS FOR -SN/-FZDZ ARE
WARRANTED NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM WEATHER MON/MON NIGHT...AND ALSO
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WILL FOCUS ON TUE-WED TIME FRAME WHEN
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS POSSIBLE.
BIG PICTURE WISE...AN UPPER WAVE DRIVEN 990MB SFC LOW WILL MOVE FROM
NRN IL TO NRN LOWER MI TUE EVENING AND TUE NIGHT. CURRENTLY...THE
CONGLOMERATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL COME TOGETHER TO CREATE
THE STRONGER UPPER WAVE ARE W OF CONUS IN THE PACIFIC...SO MODELS
ARE STILL CHANGING FROM RUN TO RUN. STILL...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...WITH ONLY RELATIVELY MINOR TRACK/TIMING/STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER AND FARTHER NW THAN THE
ECMWF...AND THE GLOBAL GEM IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF BUT A HAIR
SLOWER. EXPECT THE FORECAST TO REALLY MOVE INTO THE FINE TUNING
STAGE ON MON AFTER THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED OVER THE CONUS AND IS MORE
MATURE.
ASSUMING A TRACK SIMILAR TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY SHOWN...SIGNIFICANT
SYNOPTIC SNOW OVER MAINLY SERN/ERN UPPER MI WOULD BE ENHANCED OVER
NCENTRAL AND WRN UPPER MI AS 850MB TEMPS AOB -8C AND NE WINDS
TURNING N THEN NW. IF MODELS VERIFY WELL...WOULD PROBABLY SEE
CONDITIONS THAT WOULD VERIFY WARNINGS OVER MOST OF THE ZONES. SNOW
RATIOS WOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW TEENS SE TO THE UPPER TEENS
NW...WHICH IS ALSO WHAT WOULD HELP BOOST AMOUNTS ON THE NW EDGE OF
SYNOPTIC PRECIP. AS FOR TIMING OF SNOWFALL...EXPECT SNOW TO MOVE IN
TUE AFTERNOON AND BECOME HEAVY TUE EVENING INTO TUE NIGHT. SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING BEHIND THE SYSTEM BUT LAKE
ENHANCED/EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT INTO WED NIGHT. HESITANT TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT. DID INCREASE
SNOWFALL OVER THE SCENTRAL AND E WHILE SLIGHTLY DECREASING OVER THE
FAR NW. ANOTHER HAZARD TO LOOK AT IS WINDS...ESPECIALLY OUT OF THE N-
NNE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS NEAR MAINLY CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT ALL
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE GUSTS AT LEAST OVER 20 KTS.
MODELS KEEP US IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN...WITH ANOTHER COLD SHOT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. WITH
SOME INCREASE IN UPSLOPE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...CIGS SHOULD FALL TO THE LOWER MVFR RANGE...AND PERHAPS IFR
AT KIWD AND KSAW. THERE MAY BE SOME -SHSN AND POSSIBLY SOME -FZDZ AS
WELL...BUT ONLY MENTIONED THIS IN KCMX FCST FOR NOW AS NNW FLOW MORE
FAVORABLE THERE LATE TONIGHT FOR UPSLOPE PCPN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016
ATTENTION DURING THIS FCST PERIOD WILL BE ON THE MIDWEEK PORTION OF
THE FCST AS LOW PRES TRACKS FROM THE SRN PLAINS NE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL GENERATE A PERIOD OF NE TO N GALES
LATE TUE NIGHT THRU EARLY WED AFTN OVER ALL BUT FAR WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
253 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE ANY PATCHY FOG AND LIGHT
SNOW CHANCES OVERNIGHT.
WV LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN MANITOBA. SOME SNOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE
SHORTWAVE...BUT VISIBILITY READINGS AT WINNIPEG AND BRANDON HAVE
NOT GONE LOWER THAN 3SM...MORE OFTEN 6 MILES OR ABOVE. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BRING SOME LIGHT QPF INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS
EVENING...EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA
TOWARDS MORNING. WILL KEEP SOME 20ISH POPS GOING...BUT DO NOT
THINK WE WILL GET MORE THAN A DUSTING OF SNOWFALL.
THE SHORTWAVE HAS STARTED TO SHOVE SOME STRATUS DOWN INTO OUR
NORTH CENTRAL CWA. SOME LOWERED VISIBILITIES CONTINUE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE STRATUS. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO PATCHY FOG
THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN HANGING ON OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES.
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE ALL MORE AGGRESSIVE ON BRINGING GOOD
925 TO 850MB MOISTURE DOWN INTO THE CWA TONIGHT. HRRR AND TO SOME
EXTENT THE RAP HAVE FOG FORMING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE STRATUS.
THINK THAT SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN TO CENTRAL CWA...WITH THE BEST FOG CHANCES
EVENTUALLY MOVING TO OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA AS THE STRATUS PUSHES
IN FROM THE NORTH. AT THIS POINT THINK THAT THE MAIN FOG WILL BE
ALONG THE FRONT EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THINGS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. WITH CLOUDS AND SOME
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOW 20S OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL TO
OUR SOUTH WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A SLOW COOLING
TREND...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE COOLING TREND CONTINUES AS A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH SETS UP FROM ONTARIO DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP TEMPS THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME OF
THE MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR
WEDNESDAY...SO SLOWED THE COOLING TREND. SOME LIGHT PRECIP IS
KICKED UP BY THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...SO INCLUDED SOME VERY LOW
POPS MAINLY IN THE NORTH FOR MID WEEK...AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IF ANY ACCUMULATION.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...12Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
INDICATING A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE PATTERN THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
EVENTS. GLOBAL MODELS DO INDICATE A FEW PROGRESSIVE UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS LATE IN THE WEEK...WHICH COULD BRING A BIT OF LIGHT
SNOW...SO DO HAVE LOW POPS MENTIONED WED NIGHT AND FRI/FRI NIGHT.
12Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A STRONGER PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING
THE PLAINS LATE NEXT WEEKEND...SO ALSO HAVE LOW POPS DURING THAT
TIME.
RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN POOR WITH DAY TO DAY TEMP
TRENDS LATELY IN THE EXTENDED. THE COLDEST AIR MASS IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA...AND TO WHAT
DEGREE WE TAP THAT COLDER AIR AT TIMES WILL DEPEND ON THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW AIDED BY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS.
LATEST DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF VARY ON THE FLOW ORIENTATION AND TEMP
FIELDS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR LATE WEEK...AND WILL THEREFOR CONTINUE
TO MAINTAIN MODEL CONSENUS TEMPS FOR NOW...REASONABLY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE CEILINGS. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POORLY CAPTURE FOG/CLOUDS...LEADING TO LOW
CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN CLOUD TRENDS. DO EXPECT CONTINUED EROSION OF
FOG AT KTVF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A LOWER (IFR/MVFR) CLOUD DECK IS
SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW CLOUD COVER IN CANADA HAS BEEN MASKED
SOMEWHAT BY HIGHER CLOUDS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...MAKING IT DIFFICULT
TO DELINEATE THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS. IN THE TAFS ATTEMPTED TO
TIME LOW CLOUDS INTO THE SITES...ALTHOUGH HAVE NOT BROUGHT IN THE
LOWER CEILINGS AT KFAR THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE CLOUD DECK. AMENDMENTS WILL BE MADE AS
NECESSARY. OBS ALSO INDICATE A BIT OF FOG ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
CLOUDS...AND SOME FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW ARE POSSIBLE UNDER THE LOWER
CLOUDS...BUT WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS POINT IN THE TAFS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1244 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
MAIN UPDATE WAS TO BUMP UP HIGH TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. ALSO LOWERED SKY COVER MOST
AREAS. THERE IS SOME INCREASING CLOUDS WEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
WITH A FEW REFLECTIVITIES ON RADAR. BUT EXPECT THIS TO BE VERY
LIGHT WITH LITTLE IF ANYTHING REACHING THE GROUND. ALSO SOME
CLOUDS PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 923 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
A FEW WEAK REFLECTIVITIES OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA HAVE
DIMINISHED EVEN MORE IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO. LATEST RAP/HRRR HAVE
ALSO BACKED OFF A BIT ON AFTERNOON SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEST. THERE
IS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON SO
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER...BUT WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW. ALSO LOWERED SKY COVER MOST AREAS THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. WE DID INCREASE
WIND SPEEDS TODAY A BIT OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND INCLUDING IN THE
BOWMAN AND HETTINGER AREAS BASED ON RECENT LAMP GUIDANCE AND MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT DEPICT A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. OTHER-
WISE...RECENT HRRR ITERATIONS SUGGEST WE MIGHT NEED TO INCLUDE LOW
POPS FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN ND WITH A LATER UPDATE
IF THOSE SOLUTIONS STAY CONSISTENT IN SUCCEEDING MODEL CYCLES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
A QUIET DAY FOR THE SHORT TERM.
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A
BIT COOLER TODAY...GENERALLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAYS
READINGS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY. SOME OF THE SHORT
TERM MODELS BRING IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH LATER
TONIGHT AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. IF
ANYTHING DOES FORM IT WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND OF LITTLE IMPACT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY WILL FEATURE COLDER TEMPERATURES...BUT
THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION-MAKERS.
AB0VE-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE BASIC PREMISE OF FLOW ALOFT
THIS WEEK...WHICH WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY WITH EMBEDDED IMPULSES SET
TO CROSS THE REGION ON ABOUT WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON THE 00
UTC GFS AND ECMWF. WE HAVE LOW POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW IN PLAY ACROSS
PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND CENTERED ON THOSE TIME PERIODS IN
RESPECT TO THE EXPECTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGES...BUT THERE WAS
ONLY LIGHT QPF GENERATED WITH THE WAVES IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS
OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. THAT IS NOT SURPRISING AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE
DEVELOPING WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE MAY AMPLIFY IN SUCH A WAY
AS TO PROVIDE A ROADBLOCK FOR HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ALOFT TO BE
ENTRAINED INTO THE WAVES OUT OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC /WHICH DOES
OCCUR IN SOME LESS-AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW REGIMES/. THUS...EVEN
IF SNOW OCCURS WITH THE WAVES...IT WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT AT BEST.
TEMPERATURES ARE SET TOO COOL DOWN WITH FORECAST HIGHS FALLING TO
THE BELOW-NORMAL CATEGORY BY LATE WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A
DISPARITY IN HOW COLD IT WILL ACTUALLY GET...WITH THE ECMWF MODEL
MUCH LESS SUGGESTIVE OF AN ARCTIC SURGE FOLLOWING THE FRIDAY WAVE
THAN THE GFS SOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016
FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING/MOVING IN THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME HAVE A HARD TIME
BELIEVING HOW QUICK THIS DEVELOPS GIVEN OUR LACK OF CLOUD COVER
HERE AND UPSTREAM. COLD AIR DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING LOWER STRATUS INTO THE AREA BUT AT THIS TIME WE
HAVE ELECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY DELAY THE ARRIVAL. FOR NOW BROUGHT
MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE NORTH AROUND 12Z MONDAY...WITH LOW VFR
CEILINGS INTO SOUTHERN TAF SITES DURING THE MORNING. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY TO
AROUND 25 MPH AT KDIK THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE MAINLY 10 KNOTS
OR LESS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...TWH