Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/29/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1012 AM MST WED JAN 27 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM MST WED JAN 27 2016
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET TODAY
AND TONIGHT. WILL LOOK AT MOUNTAIN VALLEY TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WE MAY NEED TO LOWER THEM IN NORTH PARK AND CENTRAL PARK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST WED JAN 27 2016
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER NRN CO THRU TONIGHT. THERE IS A
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE THIS
AFTN AND EVENING. HOWEVER MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE IS CONFINED
TO THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS SO OUTSIDE OF SOME CLOUDS NO PCPN IS
EXPECTED.
AS FOR TEMPS SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S OVER
MOST OF NERN CO HOWEVER LINGERING SNOW COVER OVER WELD AND PORTIONS
OF MORGAN COUNTY MAY KEEP HIGHS THEIR IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IF
INVERSIONS HOLD. HOWEVER BOTH THE HRRR AND RAP WANT TO BREAK THESE
INVERSIONS BY AFTN DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS COMING OFF THE CHEYENNE
RIDGE WHICH CAUSES HIGHS TO BE IN THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP HIGHS COOLER BUT DAY SHIFT MAY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THESE TRENDS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST WED JAN 27 2016
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO THE
CWA ON THURSDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND FAIRLY
WEAK. THE RIDGE WILL START TO FLATTEN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH THE FLOW ALOFT INCREASING AND BECOMING MORE ZONAL. A
WEAK SYSTEM WILL BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN ON FRIDAY AS IT PASSES TO
THE NORTH OF COLORADO. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF A MOUNTAIN WAVE THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS WOULD
APPEAR TO BE ABOVE TIMBERLINE AND IN THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS. PACIFIC
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO
LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW REDEVELOPING
IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AT THAT TIME. THE STRONGER ZONAL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER COLORADO OVER THE WEEKEND. THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE DENVER AREA BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SATURDAY EVENING...THEN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE COLDER ON SUNDAY WITH A SLGT
CHC OF PCPN CONTINUING ON SUNDAY AS WELL. THE FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR
THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS LATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ITS
TRACK. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER...THE MDLS MOVE THIS DIGGING TROUGH
INTO SRN UT BY 12Z MONDAY THEN SHIFT IT INTO SERN CO BY 00Z
TUESDAY. IF THIS OCCURS...THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
WITH A DEEP AND EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE. STRONG QG ASCENT WILL DEVELOP AT THE SFC AND ALOFT AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. WL GO WITH 50 PERCENT POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. FAR TOO EARLY FOR HIGHLIGHTS...BUT WE
WILL BE WATCHING THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY. IF THE MDLS
REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING/TRACK THEN A WINTER STORM WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED AT SOME POINT DURING THE WEEKEND. AVG
12-24HR SNOW AMOUNTS BY 12Z TUESDAY RANGE FROM GFS/ECMWF 6-12
INCHES...THE GFS IS THE HIGHER OF THE TWO. THE CANADIAN IS A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LOW...SO LESSER AMOUNTS
GENERATED WITH THIS ONE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST WED JAN 27 2016
WITH A RIDGE OVERHEAD EXPECT DRY VFR CONDTIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE WEAK...BUT A LONGMONT ANTICYCLONE IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
NORTHEAST...THEN BECOMING DRAINAGE WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RTG
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
311 AM MST WED JAN 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST WED JAN 27 2016
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER NRN CO THRU TONIGHT. THERE IS A
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE THIS
AFTN AND EVENING. HOWEVER MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE IS CONFINED
TO THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS SO OUTSIDE OF SOME CLOUDS NO PCPN IS
EXPECTED.
AS FOR TEMPS SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S OVER
MOST OF NERN CO HOWEVER LINGERING SNOW COVER OVER WELD AND PORTIONS
OF MORGAN COUNTY MAY KEEP HIGHS THEIR IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IF
INVERSIONS HOLD. HOWEVER BOTH THE HRRR AND RAP WANT TO BREAK THESE
INVERSIONS BY AFTN DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS COMING OFF THE CHEYENNE
RIDGE WHICH CAUSES HIGHS TO BE IN THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP HIGHS COOLER BUT DAY SHIFT MAY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THESE TRENDS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST WED JAN 27 2016
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO THE
CWA ON THURSDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND FAIRLY
WEAK. THE RIDGE WILL START TO FLATTEN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH THE FLOW ALOFT INCREASING AND BECOMING MORE ZONAL. A
WEAK SYSTEM WILL BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN ON FRIDAY AS IT PASSES TO
THE NORTH OF COLORADO. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF A MOUNTAIN WAVE THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS WOULD
APPEAR TO BE ABOVE TIMBERLINE AND IN THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS. PACIFIC
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO
LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW REDEVELOPING
IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AT THAT TIME. THE STRONGER ZONAL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER COLORADO OVER THE WEEKEND. THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE DENVER AREA BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SATURDAY EVENING...THEN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE COLDER ON SUNDAY WITH A SLGT
CHC OF PCPN CONTINUING ON SUNDAY AS WELL. THE FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR
THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS LATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ITS
TRACK. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER...THE MDLS MOVE THIS DIGGING TROUGH
INTO SRN UT BY 12Z MONDAY THEN SHIFT IT INTO SERN CO BY 00Z
TUESDAY. IF THIS OCCURS...THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
WITH A DEEP AND EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE. STRONG QG ASCENT WILL DEVELOP AT THE SFC AND ALOFT AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. WL GO WITH 50 PERCENT POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. FAR TOO EARLY FOR HIGHLIGHTS...BUT WE
WILL BE WATCHING THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY. IF THE MDLS
REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING/TRACK THEN A WINTER STORM WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED AT SOME POINT DURING THE WEEKEND. AVG
12-24HR SNOW AMOUNTS BY 12Z TUESDAY RANGE FROM GFS/ECMWF 6-12
INCHES...THE GFS IS THE HIGHER OF THE TWO. THE CANADIAN IS A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LOW...SO LESSER AMOUNTS
GENERATED WITH THIS ONE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST WED JAN 27 2016
VFR FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. DRAINAGE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. BY EARLY AFTN LOOKS LIKE A LONGMONT ANTICYCLONE MAY DVLP
DUE TO NWLY WINDS OVER THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. THIS ALLOWS FOR WINDS TO
BECOME NNE BY 19Z THRU 23Z. AFTER 23Z THE ANTICYCLONE WILL
BREAKDOWN WHICH ALLOWS WINDS TO SWITCH BACK TO DRAINAGE BY EARLY
EVENING.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1206 AM EST WED JAN 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH. ON THURSDAY, THE REGION
WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS, ONE WHICH SHOULD TRACK
WELL OFFSHORE, AND ANOTHER ONE MOVING EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND IS THEN IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING.
ENOUGH LIFT WILL BE PRESENT ALONG THE FRONT FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. LATEST RADAR WAS BASICALLY VOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
ECHOES, WITH PRECIP TO THE W NOT REACHING THE GROUND ATTM. BOTH
THE NAM AND HRRR INDICATE THAT PRECIP WILL BE MINIMAL THRU 09Z,
WITH THE GFS A LITTLE MORE ROBUST (AND LIKELY OVERDONE) BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THEREFORE, HAVE LOWERED POPS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND REASSESS POPS LATER IN
THE PD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF I-95 WED MORNING. OTHERWISE...
CLEARING SKIES WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. NORTHWEST WINDS
GENERALLY UNDER 15 MPH EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE TREND THAT BEGAN WITH YESTERDAY/S MODEL
RUNS WITH THE TRACK OF THE OFF SHORE LOW HAS CONTINUED. THE OFF
SHORE LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO TAKE A TRACK WELL OFF SHORE,
RESULTING IN FEW IF ANY IMPACTS FOR OUR REGION. MEANWHILE, THE LOW
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA IS NOW EXPECTED TO
FILL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS
STILL EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. DESPITE
LIMITED MOISTURE, THERE ARE LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW ACROSS THE
POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NJ. OTHERWISE THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE BREEZY
CONDITIONS. BEING SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS WILL RESULT
IN A SOMEWHAT TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND THUS GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION, ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY BEHIND OR WITH THE FRONT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE RIDGES MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD RESULTING IN A MODEST WARMING TREND
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SLIGHTLY FROM
THE I95 CORRIDOR TO THE NORTHWEST, WHERE THE EXTENSIVE SNOW PACK
IS STILL QUITE DEEP (AS GUIDANCE HAS A TENDENCY TO UNDERESTIMATE
THE IMPACT OF THE SNOW PACK IN THESE SITUATIONS).
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN THE TRACKS AND TIMING OF THE NEXT
TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. ONE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE CROSSING
EASTERN CANADA EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE GFS IS NOW SHOWING A FURTHER
SOUTH TRACK (WITH POTENTIAL PRECIP FOR OUR REGION) WHILE THE ECMWF
NOW HAS THE FURTHEST NORTH TRACK (WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FOR
OUR REGION). CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY, HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. AT THE VERY END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD ON TUESDAY, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LEE SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR. WEST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED,
NO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPOTTY
MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT MAINLY FOR KACY AND KMIV BUT DATA HAS BEEN
SHOWING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THOSE PROSPECTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR AT ALL TAF SITES. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THERE
IS A SMALL RISK OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
WE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 21Z WED.
WHILE SEAS MAY COME DOWN SOME...WE EXPECT THE WINDS TO REMAIN
ELEVATED OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY. THERE
MAY BE A GALE GUST OR TWO, BUT THE RISK IS LOW RIGHT NOW.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY BE SUBSIDING
BELOW SCA CRITERIA, THOUGH GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
PHILADELPHIA AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR JANUARY IS PROJECTING NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...MAYBE 0.6 TO 0.9 DEGREES ABOVE THE
NORM OF 33.0.
THAT MEANS FOR DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY TO AVERAGE NORMAL, WE
WOULD NEED A FEBRUARY MUCH COLDER THAN LAST FEBRUARY WHICH WAS
NEARLY 10F BELOW NORMAL. IN OTHER WORDS, PROBABLY CLOSE TO 14F
BELOW NORMAL. THAT IS NOT LIKELY. (DECEMBER AVERAGED ALMOST 14
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
THE REMAINING CLIMATE SITES IN OUR AREA SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO THE
NEAR NORMAL DEPARTURES THAT HAVE OCCURRED SO FAR THROUGH THE 25TH.
44009 ON THE 23RD: WE TOOK A LOOK AT THE AVAILABLE DATABASE BACK
TO 1984 AND THE 60 KT WIND RECORDED THERE BEFORE THE WIND SYSTEMS
QUIT SHORTLY AFTER 1104Z/23RD WAS THE SECOND STRONGEST WIND GUST
THERE IN THE PERIOD OF RECORD. 64 KT GUSTS WERE RECORDED AT THIS
LOCATION ON 9/27/85 (GLORIA); 60, 64, 60 KT AT 10,12 AND 13Z ON
8/18/86 (CHARLEY) AND THIS YEARS 60 KT. HOWEVER WIND SENSORS HAVE
BEEN OTS FOR LONG STRETCHES OF TIME IN RECENT YEARS.
THE SEAS AT 44009 REACHES 27.6 FEET AROUND 2150Z/23...HIGHEST ON
RECORD THERE!
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...FRANCK/GAINES/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...FRANCK/GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...FRANCK/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
314 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
20Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
AND INCREASINGLY COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW ARRIVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
OVER-TOP BROAD UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONTINENT. THE FLOW IS THEN TAKEN OVER BY A POTENT SHORTWAVE
RAPIDLY DIGGING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO FORM A SHARP TROUGH
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH CAN
BE ANALYZED EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA TO THE TN VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE IS
CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO/TEXAS AND IS FORECAST BY ALL NWP GUIDANCE TO STEADILY
MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THURSDAY. A POWERFUL 140+ KT UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM
JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND EJECTS ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO...AND WILL HELP TO AID PERIODS OF ENHANCED RISING MOTION
OVER OUR AREA THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EVENTUALLY...PARTIAL PHASING OF
THIS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THE DIGGING TROUGH ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATER THURSDAY WILL HELP TO ACCELERATE THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AXIS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND FLORIDA PENINSULA THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FULL PHASING OCCURS
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FRIDAY. THE ACCELERATION OF THIS ENERGY
THROUGH OUR AREA WILL END THE ONGOING PERIOD OF WET WEATHER WELL
BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY...AND SET UP A FAIR AND DRY PATTERN FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE...AN INVERTED TROUGH/WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS FEATURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ON THURSDAY SHIFTS
THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD/SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...RAIN CHANCES END IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT LATER THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MUCH DRIER...FAIR...AND SOMEWHAT COOLER
WEATHER DESCENDING UPON THE STATE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
MID AFTERNOON RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN STREAMING
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE GULF INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WHOLE MASS...HOWEVER...LIGHTING
ACTIVITY REMAINS VERY LIMITED. SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS
OF RAINFALL THAT FELL ACROSS THE REGION LAST NIGHT AND THIS
MORNING HELPED TO FURTHER WEAKEN LOWER/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
THROUGH THE PROCESS OF LATENT HEAT RELEASE...AND LESSENED THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONGER UPDRAFTS USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. THE NEW LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL IMPACTING THE REGION
IS BEING FORCED WITHING ZONE OF LOWER ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/WAA
REGIME BY A BROAD 925-700MB THETAE RIDGE EMANATING FROM THE FAR
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...UNDERNEATH A STILL DIFFLUENT UPPER
LEVEL WIND FLOW. EARLY AFTERNOON RAP GUIDANCE APPEAR TO BE
HANDLING THIS THETAE RIDGE/WAA REGIME WELL...AND CONTINUE TO SHOW
A FAIRLY ABRUPT NORTHERN BOUNDARY TO THIS LIFT... NEAR OR JUST
NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. RADAR TRENDS SEEM TO BE FOLLOWING SUIT
WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ECHOES SOUTH OF THIS CORRIDOR. CERTAINLY
CAN EXPECT SCT SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH...BUT OVERALL HAVE A DECENT
POP/QPF GRADIENT FOR THE DURATION OF THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS RUNNING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. RAIN CHANCES ARE AT 90-100% SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AND
QUICKLY DROP TO 50-60%...20-40% FOR THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES.
BEEN QUITE A BIT IN THE NEWS EARLIER TODAY CONCERNING THE SEVERE
WEATHER THAT OCCURRED ACROSS FAR SOUTH FLORIDA...INCLUDING A FEW
CONFIRMED TORNADOES. BASED ON THE CURRENT SITUATION...THIS THREAT
APPEARS MORE AND MORE UNLIKELY TO EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO OUR ZONES
THE REST OF THE DAY. ONE CAN NEVER RULE OUT A STRONGER OR
ROTATING STORM...AND RADAR WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY...HOWEVER...THE CONTINUED LARGE MASS OF
RAINFALL...RESULTING CONTINUED RELEASE OF LATENT HEAT INTO THE
LOWER/MID LEVEL COLUMN TO WEAKEN LAPSE RATES...AND AN OVERALL LACK
OF SURFACE/BL CAPE (PER LATEST ANALYSIS AND RAP FORECASTS)
SUGGESTS SEVERE WEATHER WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MATERIALIZING.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING)...
LOOKING AHEAD TO TONIGHT...LATEST RAP SUGGESTS A MODEST THETAE
RIDGE/WAA AND GENERAL UPGLIDE REGIME SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE
BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERALL THE FORCING DOES
NOT LOOK AS FAVORABLE BEYOND THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS...AND
THEREFORE THE EXTENT/DURATION OF EVENING RAINFALL MAY NOT BE AS
GREAT...HOWEVER THE FORECAST STILL WOULD BE CONSIDERED WET FOR
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. SIMILAR TO THE LATE AFTERNOON...MOST
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN ALONG...AND MORE LIKELY
TO THE SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVEL
FORCING CONTINUES TO WEAKEN (ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL ZONES)
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE FIRST BIT OF INFLUENCE
FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE. GFS SUGGESTS SOME
SLIGHT HEIGHT FALLS BEGINNING BEFORE 12Z...AND THEREFORE...BROAD
BUT WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING AND PLENTY OF COLUMN MOISTURE WILL KEEP
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
THURSDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN THE CURRENT WET
PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE STATE...AND THE MUCH DRIER AND PLEASANT
AIRMASS ARRIVING FOR FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WELL-DEFINED
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY. THIS ACTION WILL
SPREAD HEIGHT FALLS AND RESULTING BROAD DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE OVER OUR REGION BY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A
CONTINUATION OF THE STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM JET PASSING OVERHEAD.
THE APPROACH OF THE STRONG TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PUSH THE
SURFACE/LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE AREA TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT. THE BROAD SYNOPTIC FORCING
ALOFT WILL THEN COMBINE WITH MODEST FOCUS ALONG THE ORGANIZING
FGEN BAND TO LIKELY PRODUCE ONE FINAL BAND OF RAIN/SHOWERS WITH
THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS BAND OF RAIN WILL PIVOT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING RAIN CHANCES TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS FROM NORTHWEST/WEST TO SOUTHEAST/EAST. ALL
LINGER POPS ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN/SOUTHERN ZONES HAVE BEEN REMOVED
AFTER 03Z THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE. MUCH
NICER AND DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MORE DETAILS ON THE DRIER AND
MUCH MORE PLEASANT WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK CAN BE FOUND IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
RIDGING OUT WEST AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST. THE TROUGH AXIS
INITIALLY OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL PIVOT EASTWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...TO BE REPLACED BY NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE DAY WITH AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
THE AREA SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL END UP
MOSTLY SUNNY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO PLACE...WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ALOFT WHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY TO OUR WEST
WILL MIGRATE OVER THE STATE FOR SATURDAY AND THEN OUT OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN-FREE AND PLEASANT
WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL RISE BY A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY...STARTING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR SATURDAY AND
INCREASING TO AROUND 70 TO THE MID 70S FOR SUNDAY.
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES RIDGED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH A
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IN PLACE. THIS SET-UP WILL GIVE US A COUPLE OF
EVEN WARMER DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON MONDAY
REACHING THE LOWER 80S IN SOME SPOTS FOR TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN MAINLY FOR
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...INCREASING INTO THE
CHANCE RANGE FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY DEFINITELY EXISTS WITH THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE
PERIOD...BUT AT LEAST FOR NOW...THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IS COVERING
TERMINALS TO THE SOUTH OF I-4 CORRIDOR. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VIS LIKELY FROM KSRQ TO KPGD AND KFMY/KRSW WITH THE RAIN.
LESS RAIN EXPECTED NEXT FEW HOURS FOR TAMPA BAY
TERMINALS...HOWEVER PERIODS OF SEA FOG MAY BRIEFLY LOWER
VISIBILITIES FOR THESE TERMINALS NEAR THE WATER. NMRS SHWRS WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT VCNTY ALL TERMINALS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
LIKELY...AND LOCALLY IFR UNDER PASSING HEAVIER BOUTS OF RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN STRETCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AREAS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED
STORMS WILL MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED.
THURSDAY THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SINK SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT AND
CLEAR THE FORECAST WATERS THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS SHIFT NORTH AND
NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...AND MAY REACH CAUTIONARY LEVELS AT TIMES. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...ALLOWING PERIODS OF
RAINFALL TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND MOST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL ALONG AND TO THE
SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...ALTHOUGH LESSER DURATIONS...BUT STILL
WETTING RAINS SHOULD STILL BE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NATURE COAST
ZONES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH AND EAST
LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT...USHERING IN
A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH 35 PERCENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NATURE
COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DURATION OF
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
FOG POTENTIAL...
NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH AREAS OF SEA FOG NEAR THE COAST OF PINELLAS...
HILLSBOROUGH...AND PASCO COUNTY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATER THURSDAY WILL END THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG REGION-WIDE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 62 67 50 64 / 80 80 20 0
FMY 65 72 55 68 / 90 80 40 0
GIF 61 71 50 67 / 80 80 40 0
SRQ 62 67 52 64 / 90 80 30 0
BKV 60 67 45 65 / 70 70 20 0
SPG 61 68 53 64 / 80 80 20 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-
TAMPA BAY WATERS.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...CARLISLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
123 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING)...
18Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
AND INCREASINGLY COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW ARRIVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
OVER-TOP BROAD UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONTINENT. THE FLOW IS THEN TAKEN OVER BY A POTENT SHORTWAVE
RAPIDLY DIGGING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO FORM A SHARP TROUGH
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH CAN
BE ANALYZED EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA TO THE TN VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE IS
CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO/TEXAS AND IS FORECAST BY ALL NWP GUIDANCE TO STEADILY
MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THURSDAY. A POWERFUL 140+ KT UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM
JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND EJECTS ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO...AND WILL HELP TO AID PERIODS OF ENHANCED RISING MOTION
OVER OUR AREA THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EVENTUALLY...PARTIAL PHASING OF
THIS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THE DIGGING TROUGH ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATER THURSDAY WILL HELP TO ACCELERATE THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AXIS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FULL PHASING
OCCURS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. THE ACCELERATION OF
THIS ENERGY THROUGH OUR AREA WILL END THE ONGOING PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER WELL BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY...AND SET UP A FAIR AND DRY
PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE...AN INVERTED TROUGH/WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS FEATURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ON THURSDAY SHIFTS
THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD/SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...RAIN CHANCES END IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT LATER THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MUCH DRIER...FAIR...AND SOMEWHAT COOLER
WEATHER DESCENDING UPON THE STATE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
EARLY AFTERNOON RADAR PICTURE SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN STREAMING
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE GULF INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WHOLE MASS...HOWEVER...
LIGHTING ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY LIMITED TODAY. SIGNIFICANT
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THAT FELL ACROSS THE REGION LAST
NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING HELPED TO FURTHER WEAKEN LOWER/MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE PROCESS OF LATENT HEAT RELEASE...AND
LESSENED THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONGER UPDRAFTS USUALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. THE NEW LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL
IMPACTING THE REGION IS BEING FORCED WITHING ZONE OF LOWER
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/WAA REGIME BY A BROAD 925-700MB THETAE RIDGE
EMANATING FROM THE FAR SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...UNDERNEATH A
STILL DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. LATE MORNING RAP GUIDANCE
RUNS APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THIS THETAE RIDGE/WAA REGIME WELL...AND
CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY ABRUPT NORTHERN BOUNDARY TO THIS LIFT...
NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. RADAR TRENDS SEEM TO BE
FOLLOWING SUIT WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ECHOES ROUGHLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THIS CORRIDOR. CERTAINLY CAN EXPECT SCT SHOWERS FURTHER
NORTH...BUT OVERALL HAVE A DECENT POP/QPF GRADIENT FOR THE
DURATION OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS RUNNING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN CHANCES ARE AT 100%
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-4...AND QUICKLY DROP TO 60% FURTHER...THEN
50%...AND FINALLY 40% FOR THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES.
BEEN QUITE A BIT IN THE NEWS SO FAR TODAY CONCERNING THE SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS FAR SOUTH FLORIDA...INCLUDING A FEW CONFIRMED
TORNADOES. BASED ON THE CURRENT SITUATION...THIS THREAT APPEARS
UNLIKELY TO EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO OUR ZONES TODAY. ONE CAN NEVER
RULE OUT A STRONGER OR ROTATING STORM...BUT THE CONTINUED LARGE
MASS OF RAINFALL...RESULTING CONTINUED RELEASE OF LATENT HEAT INTO
THE LOWER/MID LEVEL COLUMN TO WEAKEN LAPSE RATES...AND AN OVERALL
LACK OF SURFACE/BL CAPE (PER LATEST ANALYSIS AND RAP FORECASTS)
SUGGESTS SEVERE WEATHER WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MATERIALIZING.
LOOKING AHEAD TO TONIGHT...LATEST RAP SUGGESTS A MODEST THETAE
RIDGE/WAA AND GENERAL UPGLIDE REGIME SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE
BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERALL THE FORCING DOES
NOT LOOK AS FAVORABLE BEYOND THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS...AND
THEREFORE THE EXTENT/DURATION OF EVENING RAINFALL MAY NOT BE AS
GREAT...HOWEVER THE FORECAST STILL WOULD BE CONSIDERED WET FOR
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVEL FORCING CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN (ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL ZONES) AFTER MIDNIGHT...WILL BY
THIS TIME BEGIN TO FEEL THE FIRST BIT OF INFLUENCE FROM THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE. GFS SUGGESTS SOME SLIGHT
HEIGHT FALLS BEGINNING BEFORE 12Z...AND THEREFORE...BROAD BUT WEAK
SYNOPTIC FORCING AND PLENTY OF COLUMN MOISTURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
THURSDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN THE CURRENT WET
PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE STATE...AND THE MUCH DRIER AND PLEASANT
AIRMASS ARRIVING FOR FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WELL-DEFINED
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY. THIS ACTION WILL
SPREAD HEIGHT FALLS AND RESULTING BROAD DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE OVER OUR REGION BY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A
CONTINUATION OF THE STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM JET PASSING OVERHEAD.
THE APPROACH OF THE STRONG TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PUSH THE
SURFACE/LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE AREA TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT. THE BROAD SYNOPTIC FORCING
ALOFT WILL THEN COMBINE WITH MODEST FOCUS ALONG THE ORGANIZING
FGEN BAND TO LIKELY PRODUCE ONE FINAL BAND OF RAIN/SHOWERS WITH
THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS BAND OF RAIN WILL PIVOT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING RAIN CHANCES TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS FROM NORTHWEST/WEST TO SOUTHEAST/EAST. ALL
LINGER POPS ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN/SOUTHERN ZONES SHOULD BE ABLE
TO BE REMOVED THURSDAY EVENING. MUCH NICER AND DRIER WEATHER
FOLLOWS FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IS COVERING
TERMINALS FROM PGD NORTH. AREA OF RAIN WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH ATMOSPHERE GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THE RAIN SHIELD. SCT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH LCL IFR CIGS/VSBYS WHICH
MAY IMPACT PGD/RSW/FMY. INCREASING CHANCE OF TSTMS AT REMAINING
TERMINALS SRQ/PIE/TPA/LAL AROUND SUNSET AS UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
LIFTS NORTH WITH ISOLD/SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING. NMRS SHWRS WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT VCNTY ALL TERMINALS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY
AT ALL TERMINALS WITH LCL IFR CIGS/VSBYS...WITH TSTMS POSSIBLE
VCNTY ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN STRETCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO IN THURSDAY. AREAS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL
MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED. THURSDAY THE
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SINK SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT AND CLEAR THE
FORECAST WATERS THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS SHIFT NORTH AND NORTHWEST
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND MAY
REACH CAUTIONARY LEVELS AT TIMES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN GULF FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW SEAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 73 63 68 50 / 100 70 70 20
FMY 78 66 75 55 / 100 80 80 40
GIF 75 63 72 50 / 100 70 70 40
SRQ 75 63 71 52 / 100 70 70 30
BKV 74 60 70 45 / 70 70 70 20
SPG 73 62 68 53 / 100 70 70 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-
TAMPA BAY WATERS.
&&
$$
UPDATE/MARINE...MROCZKA
OGLESBY...AVIATION
DECISION SUPPORT...CARLISLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
121 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING)...
18Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
AND INCREASINGLY COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW ARRIVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
OVER-TOP BROAD UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONTINENT. THE FLOW IS THEN TAKEN OVER BY A POTENT SHORTWAVE
RAPIDLY DIGGING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO FORM A SHARP TROUGH
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH CAN
BE ANALYZED EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA TO THE TN VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE IS
CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO/TEXAS AND IS FORECAST BY ALL NWP GUIDANCE TO STEADILY
MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THURSDAY. A POWERFUL 140+ KT UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM
JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND EJECTS ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO...AND WILL HELP TO AID PERIODS OF ENHANCED RISING MOTION
OVER OUR AREA THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EVENTUALLY...PARTIAL PHASING OF
THIS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THE DIGGING TROUGH ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATER THURSDAY WILL HELP TO ACCELERATE THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AXIS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FULL PHASING
OCCURS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. THE ACCELERATION OF
THIS ENERGY THROUGH OUR AREA WILL END THE ONGOING PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER WELL BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY...AND SET UP A FAIR AND DRY
PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE...AN INVERTED TROUGH/WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS FEATURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ON THURSDAY SHIFTS
THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD/SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...RAIN CHANCES END IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT LATER THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MUCH DRIER...FAIR...AND SOMEWHAT COOLER
WEATHER DESCENDING UPON THE STATE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
EARLY AFTERNOON RADAR PICTURE SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN STREAMING
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE GULF INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WHOLE MASS...HOWEVER...
LIGHTING ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY LIMITED TODAY. SIGNIFICANT
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THAT FELL ACROSS THE REGION LAST
NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING HELPED TO FURTHER WEAKEN LOWER/MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE PROCESS OF LATENT HEAT RELEASE...AND
LESSENED THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONGER UPDRAFTS USUALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. THE NEW LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL
IMPACTING THE REGION IS BEING FORCED WITHING ZONE OF LOWER
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/WAA REGIME BY A BROAD 925-700MB THETAE RIDGE
EMANATING FROM THE FAR SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...UNDERNEATH A
STILL DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. LATE MORNING RAP GUIDANCE
RUNS APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THIS THETAE RIDGE/WAA REGIME WELL...AND
CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY ABRUPT NORTHERN BOUNDARY TO THIS LIFT...
NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. RADAR TRENDS SEEM TO BE
FOLLOWING SUIT WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ECHOES ROUGHLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THIS CORRIDOR. CERTAINLY CAN EXPECT SCT SHOWERS FURTHER
NORTH...BUT OVERALL HAVE A DECENT POP/QPF GRADIENT FOR THE
DURATION OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS RUNNING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN CHANCES ARE AT 100%
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-4...AND QUICKLY DROP TO 60% FURTHER...THEN
50%...AND FINALLY 40% FOR THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES.
BEEN QUITE A BIT IN THE NEWS SO FAR TODAY CONCERNING THE SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS FAR SOUTH FLORIDA...INCLUDING A FEW CONFIRMED
TORNADOES. BASED ON THE CURRENT SITUATION...THIS THREAT APPEARS
UNLIKELY TO EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO OUR ZONES TODAY. ONE CAN NEVER
RULE OUT A STRONGER OR ROTATING STORM...BUT THE CONTINUED LARGE
MASS OF RAINFALL...RESULTING CONTINUED RELEASE OF LATENT HEAT INTO
THE LOWER/MID LEVEL COLUMN TO WEAKEN LAPSE RATES...AND AN OVERALL
LACK OF SURFACE/BL CAPE (PER LATEST ANALYSIS AND RAP FORECASTS)
SUGGESTS SEVERE WEATHER WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MATERIALIZING.
LOOKING AHEAD TO TONIGHT...LATEST RAP SUGGESTS A MODEST THETAE
RIDGE/WAA AND GENERAL UPGLIDE REGIME SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE
BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERALL THE FORCING DOES
NOT LOOK AS FAVORABLE BEYOND THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS...AND
THEREFORE THE EXTENT/DURATION OF EVENING RAINFALL MAY NOT BE AS
GREAT...HOWEVER THE FORECAST STILL WOULD BE CONSIDERED WET FOR
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVEL FORCING CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN (ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL ZONES) AFTER MIDNIGHT...WILL BY
THIS TIME BEGIN TO FEEL THE FIRST BIT OF INFLUENCE FROM THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE. GFS SUGGESTS SOME SLIGHT
HEIGHT FALLS BEGINNING BEFORE 12Z...AND THEREFORE...BROAD BUT WEAK
SYNOPTIC FORCING AND PLENTY OF COLUMN MOISTURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
THURSDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN THE CURRENT WET
PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE STATE...AND THE MUCH DRIER AND PLEASANT
AIRMASS ARRIVING FOR FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WELL-DEFINED
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY. THIS ACTION WILL
SPREAD HEIGHT FALLS AND RESULTING BROAD DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE OVER OUR REGION BY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A
CONTINUATION OF THE STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM JET PASSING OVERHEAD.
THE APPROACH OF THE STRONG TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PUSH THE
SURFACE/LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE AREA TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT. THE BROAD SYNOPTIC FORCING
ALOFT WILL THEN COMBINE WITH MODEST FOCUS ALONG THE ORGANIZING
FGEN BAND TO LIKELY PRODUCE ONE FINAL BAND OF RAIN/SHOWERS WITH
THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS BAND OF RAIN WILL PIVOT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING RAIN CHANCES TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS FROM NORTHWEST/WEST TO SOUTHEAST/EAST. ALL
LINGER POPS ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN/SOUTHERN ZONES SHOULD BE ABLE
TO BE REMOVED THURSDAY EVENING. MUCH NICER AND DRIER WEATHER
FOLLOWS FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
COMING SOON.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN STRETCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO IN THURSDAY. AREAS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL
MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED. THURSDAY THE
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SINK SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT AND CLEAR THE
FORECAST WATERS THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS SHIFT NORTH AND NORTHWEST
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND MAY
REACH CAUTIONARY LEVELS AT TIMES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN GULF FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW SEAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 73 63 68 52 / 100 70 70 20
FMY 78 66 75 57 / 100 80 80 40
GIF 75 63 72 52 / 100 70 70 40
SRQ 75 63 71 54 / 100 70 70 20
BKV 74 60 70 46 / 70 70 70 20
SPG 73 62 68 54 / 100 70 70 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-
TAMPA BAY WATERS.
&&
$$
UPDATE/MARINE...MROCZKA
OGLESBY...AVIATION
DECISION SUPPORT...CARLISLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
243 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A
FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LAST AND MOST DOMINATE
IN THE SERIES WILL BEGIN LIFTING FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR INDICATED CONSIDERABLE RAIN COVERAGE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAYED SCATTERED
COVERAGE DURING MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT AN INCREASE TOWARD SUNRISE
AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE NAM AND ECMWF
PLUS MOST SREF MEMBERS INDICATED LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN
0.25 OF AN INCH. THE GFS HAD AMOUNTS NEAR 0.25 OF AN INCH IN THE
SOUTH PART. WE LEANED TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT LIGHTER AMOUNTS
BECAUSE OF WEAK LIFT AND THE INITIAL LOW-LEVEL DRYNESS. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS INDICATE THE GREATEST SUPPORT FOR RAIN DURING THE 12Z
TO 18Z TIME FRAME ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE H25 JET. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED HIGHER
WITH QPF. THE GFS HAD NEAR 0.75 OF AN INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST
SECTION. WE LEANED TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT NAM AND ECMWF AND
FORECASTED LIGHTER AMOUNTS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
LOWER FOR THURSDAY AND THIS APPEARS ON TRACK BECAUSE OF RAIN AND
WEDGE-LIKE CONDITIONS.
THE MODELS DISPLAY THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT CLEARING. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
IT SHOULD BE SUNNY FRIDAY WITH THE PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A DRY PATTERN WITH A PRESSURE RIDGE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST DOMINATING THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS KEEP
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
MODELS SHOW A MOISTURE INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT POPS NEAR 20 PERCENT TUESDAY AND 30 PERCENT
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS 20 TO 30
PERCENT TUESDAY...AND 40 TO 60 PERCENT WEDNESDAY.
IT WILL BE COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE LOWS NEAR FREEZING. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA DURING
THE REST OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE GFS AND ECMWF
MOS HAVE TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR.
COLD FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CSRA
AND MIDLANDS. THE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY
MORNING WHEN MOISTURE IS DEEPEST AND LIFT IS STRONGEST. MODELS
HAVE OVERDONE THE RESTRICTIONS TODAY AND SHOW RESTRICTIONS FOR
REST OF THE PERIOD SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. BELIEVE CEILINGS
WILL LOWER TO MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND POSSIBLY TO IFR
OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE LIGHT BUT VISIBILITIES
MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES ESPECIALLY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
SPEED BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFFSHORE FROM FLORIDA TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
215 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A
FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LAST AND MOST DOMINATE
IN THE SERIES WILL BEGIN LIFTING FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR INDICATED CONSIDERABLE RAIN COVERAGE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAYED SCATTERED
COVERAGE DURING MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT AN INCREASE TOWARD SUNRISE
AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE NAM AND ECMWF
PLUS MOST SREF MEMBERS INDICATED LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN
0.25 OF AN INCH. THE GFS HAD AMOUNTS NEAR 0.25 OF AN INCH IN THE
SOUTH PART. WE LEANED TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT LIGHTER AMOUNTS
BECAUSE OF WEAK LIFT AND THE INITIAL LOW-LEVEL DRYNESS. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS INDICATE THE GREATEST SUPPORT FOR RAIN DURING THE 12Z
TO 18Z TIME FRAME ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE H25 JET. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED HIGHER
WITH QPF. THE GFS HAD NEAR 0.75 OF AN INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST
SECTION. WE LEANED TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT NAM AND ECMWF AND
FORECASTED LIGHTER AMOUNTS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
LOWER FOR THURSDAY AND THIS APPEARS ON TRACK BECAUSE OF RAIN AND
WEDGE-LIKE CONDITIONS.
THE MODELS DISPLAY THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT CLEARING. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
IT SHOULD BE SUNNY FRIDAY WITH THE PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A DRY PATTERN WITH A PRESSURE RIDGE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST DOMINATING THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS KEEP
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
MODELS SHOW A MOISTURE INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT POPS NEAR 20 PERCENT TUESDAY AND 30 PERCENT
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS 20 TO 30
PERCENT TUESDAY...AND 40 TO 60 PERCENT WEDNESDAY.
IT WILL BE COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE LOWS NEAR FREEZING. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA DURING
THE REST OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE GFS AND ECMWF
MOS HAVE TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR.
COLD FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW
LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE CSRA CURRENTLY. REGIONAL RADAR
SHOWS AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA MOVING
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA. MODELS SHOW THESE SHOWERS MOVING INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHEN
MOISTURE IS DEEPEST AND LIFT IS STRONGEST. MODELS SHOW RESTRICTIONS
FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE MORE OPTIMISTIC
GFS LAMP WHICH GENERALLY KEEPS CONDITIONS VFR UNTIL 21Z AT AGS/DNL
AND 03/05Z AT CAE/CUB/OGB. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERDOING THE
RESTRICTIONS TODAY SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH SPEED BETWEEN
5 AND 10 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFFSHORE FROM FLORIDA TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
120 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A
FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LAST AND MOST DOMINATE
IN THE SERIES WILL BEGIN LIFTING FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR INDICATE CONSIDERABLE RAIN COVERAGE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THE HRRR INDICATED SCATTERED COVERAGE LATER...BUT AN INCREASE
TOWARD SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS.
THE NAM AND ECMWF PLUS MOST SREF MEMBERS INDICATED LIGHT RAIN
AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN 0.25 OF AN INCH. THE GFS HAD AMOUNTS NEAR
0.25 OF AN INCH IN THE SOUTH PART. WE LEANED TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT GUIDANCE. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS INDICATE THE GREATEST SUPPORT FOR RAIN DURING THE 12Z
TO 18Z TIME FRAME ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE H25 JET. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED HIGHER
WITH QPF. THE GFS HAD NEAR 0.75 OF AN INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST
SECTION. WE LEANED TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT NAM AND ECMWF AND
FORECASTED LIGHTER AMOUNTS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
LOWER FOR THURSDAY AND THIS APPEARS ON TRACK BECAUSE OF RAIN AND
WEDGE-LIKE CONDITIONS.
THE MODELS DISPLAY THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT CLEARING. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
IT SHOULD BE SUNNY FRIDAY WITH THE PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A DRY PATTERN WITH A PRESSURE RIDGE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST DOMINATING THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS KEEP
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
MODELS SHOW A MOISTURE INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT POPS NEAR 20 PERCENT TUESDAY AND 30 PERCENT
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS 20 TO 30
PERCENT TUESDAY...AND 40 TO 60 PERCENT WEDNESDAY.
IT WILL BE COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE LOWS NEAR FREEZING. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA DURING
THE REST OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE GFS AND ECMWF
MOS HAVE TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR.
COLD FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW
LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE CSRA CURRENTLY. REGIONAL RADAR
SHOWS AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA MOVING
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA. MODELS SHOW THESE SHOWERS MOVING INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHEN
MOISTURE IS DEEPEST AND LIFT IS STRONGEST. MODELS SHOW RESTRICTIONS
FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE MORE OPTIMISTIC
GFS LAMP WHICH GENERALLY KEEPS CONDITIONS VFR UNTIL 21Z AT AGS/DNL
AND 03/05Z AT CAE/CUB/OGB. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERDOING THE
RESTRICTIONS TODAY SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH SPEED BETWEEN
5 AND 10 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFFSHORE FROM FLORIDA TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1255 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A
FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LAST AND MOST DOMINATE
IN THE SERIES WILL BEGIN LIFTING FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST
LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATED RELATIVELY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR WITH A
WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT. THIS HAS HELPED LIMIT RAIN ASSOCIATED
MAINLY WITH DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE HRRR HAS
INDICATED SOME INCREASE IN RAIN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
POSSIBLY AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED BY
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LAST
IN THE SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ALONG THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE MODELS DEPICT THIS TROUGH SHIFTING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY EVENING. THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO
DISPLAY A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT IN THE FORECAST AREA DIMINISHING
FORECAST CONFIDENCE. THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCE SHOULD BE IN THE
EAST PART CLOSER TO DEEPER MOISTURE. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
INDICATES THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND MOST SIGNIFICANT ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND UPPER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIFT EXIT REGION OF THE
H25 JET LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLD ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW. EXPECT
SUNNY SKIES FRIDAY WITH A DRY PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED LOWER THURSDAY
AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. FOLLOWED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A DRY PATTERN WITH A PRESSURE RIDGE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST DOMINATING THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS KEEP
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
MODELS SHOW A MOISTURE INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN FASTER WITH THE TIMING. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS
SUPPORT POPS NEAR 20 PERCENT TUESDAY AND AROUND 30 PERCENT
WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG NET
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE LOWS NEAR
FREEZING. AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO
THE AREA DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR.
COLD FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW
LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE CSRA CURRENTLY. REGIONAL RADAR
SHOWS AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA MOVING
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA. MODELS SHOW THESE SHOWERS MOVING INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHEN
MOISTURE IS DEEPEST AND LIFT IS STRONGEST. MODELS SHOW RESTRICTIONS
FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE MORE OPTIMISTIC
GFS LAMP WHICH GENERALLY KEEPS CONDITIONS VFR UNTIL 21Z AT AGS/DNL
AND 03/05Z AT CAE/CUB/OGB. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERDOING THE
RESTRICTIONS TODAY SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH SPEED BETWEEN
5 AND 10 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFFSHORE FROM FLORIDA TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1218 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A
FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LAST AND MOST DOMINATE
IN THE SERIES WILL BEGIN LIFTING FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST
LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATED RELATIVELY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR WITH A
WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT. THIS HAS HELPED LIMIT RAIN ASSOCIATED
MAINLY WITH DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE HRRR HAS
INDICATED SOME INCREASE IN RAIN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
POSSIBLY AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED BY
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LAST
IN THE SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ALONG THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE MODELS DEPICT THIS TROUGH SHIFTING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY EVENING. THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO
DISPLAY A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT IN THE FORECAST AREA DIMINISHING
FORECAST CONFIDENCE. THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCE SHOULD BE IN THE
EAST PART CLOSER TO DEEPER MOISTURE. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
INDICATES THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND MOST SIGNIFICANT ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND UPPER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIFT EXIT REGION OF THE
H25 JET LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLD ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW. EXPECT
SUNNY SKIES FRIDAY WITH A DRY PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED LOWER THURSDAY
AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. FOLLOWED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A DRY PATTERN WITH A PRESSURE RIDGE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST DOMINATING THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS KEEP
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
MODELS SHOW A MOISTURE INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN FASTER WITH THE TIMING. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS
SUPPORT POPS NEAR 20 PERCENT TUESDAY AND AROUND 30 PERCENT
WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG NET
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE LOWS NEAR
FREEZING. AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO
THE AREA DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING EAST AND OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED AND ALL TAF SITES ARE CURRENTLY
VFR. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES. CEILINGS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY RETURNS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH SPEED BETWEEN 5 AND
10 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFFSHORE FROM FLORIDA TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1133 AM EST WED JAN 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A
FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LAST AND MOST DOMINATE
IN THE SERIES WILL BEGIN LIFTING FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST
LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATED RELATIVELY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR WITH A
WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT. THIS HAS HELPED LIMIT RAIN ASSOCIATED
MAINLY WITH DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE HRRR HAS
INDICATED SOME INCREASE IN RAIN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
POSSIBLY AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED BY
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LAST
IN THE SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ALONG THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE MODELS DEPICT THIS TROUGH SHIFTING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY EVENING. THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO
DISPLAY A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT IN THE FORECAST AREA DIMINISHING
FORECAST CONFIDENCE. THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCE SHOULD BE IN THE
EAST PART CLOSER TO DEEPER MOISTURE. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
INDICATES THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND MOST SIGNIFICANT ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND UPPER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIFT EXIT REGION OF THE
H25 JET LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE MODELS DEPICT WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA. THE
NAM...GFS..AND ECMWF AND MOST SREF MEMBERS INDICATES RAINFALL
AROUND 0.25 OF AN INCH OR LESS. CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH COLD ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES
FRIDAY WITH A DRY PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED LOWER THURSDAY AND THIS
APPEARS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A DRY PATTERN WITH A PRESSURE RIDGE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST DOMINATING THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS KEEP
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
MODELS SHOW A MOISTURE INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN FASTER WITH THE TIMING. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS
SUPPORT POPS NEAR 20 PERCENT TUESDAY AND AROUND 30 PERCENT
WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG NET
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE LOWS NEAR
FREEZING. AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO
THE AREA DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING EAST AND OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED AND ALL TAF SITES ARE CURRENTLY
VFR. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES. CEILINGS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY RETURNS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH SPEED BETWEEN 5 AND
10 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFFSHORE FROM FLORIDA TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1017 AM EST WED JAN 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A
FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LAST AND MOST DOMINATE
IN THE SERIES WILL BEGIN LIFTING FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST
LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATED RELATIVELY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR WITH A
WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT. THIS HAS HELPED LIMIT RAIN ASSOCIATED
MAINLY WITH DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE HRRR HAS
INDICATED SOME INCREASE IN RAIN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
POSSIBLY AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED BY
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
MOISTURE FLUX. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF 250 MB JET OVER FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA SHOULD
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN RAIN AREA. THE MODELS INDICATE A TIGHT
MOISTURE GRADIENT THOUGH AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN POOR.
SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT THINK LOWER POPS IN THE WEST/NORTH
MIDLANDS/PIEDMONT WHERE DRIER AIR MAY ADVECT INTO THE AREA BECAUSE
OF INCREASING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WEST FLOW. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. LEANED TOWARD THE
LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS WITH AN IN-
SITU WEDGE. THURSDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE LOWER IN THE
EAST AND PEE DEE...LIKELY IN THE 40S. CLEARING AND WARMER FRIDAY
WITH LONG-WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...DOWNSLOPE FLOW
AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING EAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND GULF COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. THE MODELS KEEP SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WEST AND NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
PLUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATE POPS LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO 20
PERCENT. COLD ADVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT AND STRONG NET RADIATIONAL
COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT SUPPORT LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING. AIR
MASS MODIFICATION AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA DURING THE REST
OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING EAST AND OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED AND ALL TAF SITES ARE CURRENTLY
VFR. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES. CEILINGS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY RETURNS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH SPEED BETWEEN 5 AND
10 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFFSHORE FROM FLORIDA TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1008 AM EST WED JAN 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A
FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LAST AND MOST DOMINATE
IN THE SERIES WILL BEGIN LIFTING FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST
LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATED RELATIVELY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR WITH A
WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT. THIS HAS HELPED LIMIT RAIN ASSOCIATED
MAINLY WITH DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE HRRR HAS
INDICATED SOME INCREASE IN RAIN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
POSSIBLY AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED BY
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. BELIEVE CLOUDINESS WILL HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES BUT THE
INVERSION INDICATES IT COULD BECOME MUCH WARMER THAN FORECAST IF
SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS OCCURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
MOISTURE FLUX. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF 250 MB JET OVER FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA SHOULD
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN RAIN AREA. THE MODELS INDICATE A TIGHT
MOISTURE GRADIENT THOUGH AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN POOR.
SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT THINK LOWER POPS IN THE WEST/NORTH
MIDLANDS/PIEDMONT WHERE DRIER AIR MAY ADVECT INTO THE AREA BECAUSE
OF INCREASING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WEST FLOW. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. LEANED TOWARD THE
LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS WITH AN IN-
SITU WEDGE. THURSDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE LOWER IN THE
EAST AND PEE DEE...LIKELY IN THE 40S. CLEARING AND WARMER FRIDAY
WITH LONG-WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...DOWNSLOPE FLOW
AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING EAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND GULF COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. THE MODELS KEEP SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WEST AND NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
PLUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATE POPS LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO 20
PERCENT. COLD ADVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT AND STRONG NET RADIATIONAL
COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT SUPPORT LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING. AIR
MASS MODIFICATION AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA DURING THE REST
OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING EAST AND OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED AND ALL TAF SITES ARE CURRENTLY
VFR. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES. CEILINGS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY RETURNS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH SPEED BETWEEN 5 AND
10 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFFSHORE FROM FLORIDA TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
909 AM EST WED JAN 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A
FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LAST AND MOST DOMINATE
IN THE SERIES WILL BEGIN LIFTING FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST
LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATED RELATIVELY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR WITH A
WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT. THIS HAS HELPED LIMIT RAIN ASSOCIATED
MAINLY WITH DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE HRRR HAS
INDICATED SOME INCREASE IN RAIN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
POSSIBLY AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED BY
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. BELIEVE CLOUDINESS WILL HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES BUT THE
INVERSION INDICATES IT COULD BECOME MUCH WARMER THAN FORECAST IF
SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS OCCURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
MOISTURE FLUX. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF 250 MB JET OVER FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA SHOULD
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN RAIN AREA. THE MODELS INDICATE A TIGHT
MOISTURE GRADIENT THOUGH AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN POOR.
SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT THINK LOWER POPS IN THE WEST/NORTH
MIDLANDS/PIEDMONT WHERE DRIER AIR MAY ADVECT INTO THE AREA BECAUSE
OF INCREASING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WEST FLOW. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. LEANED TOWARD THE
LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS WITH AN IN-
SITU WEDGE. THURSDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE LOWER IN THE
EAST AND PEE DEE...LIKELY IN THE 40S. CLEARING AND WARMER FRIDAY
WITH LONG-WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...DOWNSLOPE FLOW
AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING EAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND GULF COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. THE MODELS KEEP SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WEST AND NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
PLUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATE POPS LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO 20
PERCENT. COLD ADVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT AND STRONG NET RADIATIONAL
COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT SUPPORT LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING. AIR
MASS MODIFICATION AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA DURING THE REST
OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MIX OF CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS THE UPSTATE CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD
THE TAF SITES WITH NETWORK WSR-88D SHOWING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH INCREASING SHOWERS CROSSING CENTRAL GA. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THEN
BECOME MORE SCATTERED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY BY MID MORNING...THEN TO
NORTHEAST FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
SPEED BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS. WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWERS
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LOWER AND THICKEN WITH MAINLY MVFR AND IFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY
AS WEAL LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFFSHORE FROM FLORIDA TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
301 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
Most of the earlier stratocumulus has faded early this afternoon,
with the lingering clouds over east central Illinois showing more of
a diurnal appearance. Mid level clouds quickly streaming toward us
from the northwest, ahead of a trough/warm front the clipper that
will track across the Great Lakes tonight. Temperatures are well
into the 30s this afternoon and were close to 40 in areas west of
Springfield.
Main impact from the trough/front will be with the winds, as its
passage will otherwise only bring clouds with it. Tightening
pressure gradient will cause a period of gusty southwest winds
beginning late afternoon northwest of the Illinois River, and
spreading south of I-70 by early evening. HRRR guidance seems too
high with a period of 40-45 mph gusts this evening, but the LAMP
guidance closer to 25 mph seems more reasonable. Winds will lighten
up a bit overnight as the main trough axis crosses the area.
Temperatures should remain fairly steady in the evening, before
falling off to around 30 degrees in most areas late night.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
Another clipper system near the northern MN and sw Ontario border
will track across the Great Lakes region Thu and drive a frontal
boundary/trof east across IL by Thu afternoon. Added small chances
of light snow or flurries to ne CWA Thu afternoon and also increased
the cloud cover during Thu especially by late morning and afternoon.
Highs Thu in upper 30s to near 40F from I-74 north and lower 40s
south with Lawrenceville near 45F. WSW winds at dawn Thu to veer WNW
Thu afternoon at 10-15 mph and gusts 17-24 mph so a bit breezy Thu.
Weak surface high pressure ridge of 1017 mb moves east from the
Great Plains into IL by dawn Friday and decrease the winds Thu night.
Lows mostly in the mid 20s Thu night, with some upper 20s se of I-
70. High pressure shifts east of IL during Friday with increasing
southerly flow and its back side and a bit milder highs in the low
to mid 40s, mildest from Springfield sw. Partly to mostly sunny
skies Friday with weak upper level ridging into IL by Fri afternoon.
Upper level flow becomes more zonal late this week with milder
Pacific air moving into IL this weekend. SW winds Sat brings highs
to near 50F from I-74 north and mid 50s south of I-70 and sw of
Springfield. Highs mostly in the 50s on Sunday ranging from around
50F nw of IL river to upper 50s in southeast IL. Low pressure
passing north of Lake Superior Saturday to increase clouds northern
CWA while southeast IL enjoys more sunshine through the day Saturday.
More active weather pattern takes shape Sunday-Wednesday as IL gets
established in a sw upper level flow with upper level trof digging
over the Rockies and upper level ridging building near the Atlantic
coast. Above normal temps through Tue then cooling closer to normal
next Wed. Low pressure near the western KS/OK border by sunset Sat
to eject ne into the western Great Lakes by sunset Sunday and pull a
frontal boundary se into central IL Sunday afternoon. This to bring
1st chance of light rain showers and lingering Sunday night
especially over ne and eastern IL Sunday evening. Could see a mix of
precipitation along and north of a Rushville to Bloomington line
after midnight Sunday night but little or no snow accumuation. Still
looks like a lull in rain chances Monday with mainly slight chances
as stronger surface low pressure gets organized over north Texas.
Models bring strong low pressure ne into west central or nw IL Tue
evening and into the western Great Lakes Wed. Central and southeast
IL appear to be mostly in the warm sector with mostly rain chances,
starting to increase from sw to ne during Monday night, with likely
chances Tue and Tue night. A few thunderstorms possible Tue south of
highway 50 in southern IL. Colder air beginning to move in during
Tue night especially after midnight Tue night and Wed to change rain
to snow nw CWA with some accumulations possible mainly nw of the IL
river. Most of area will see a good chance of light snow on Wed as
colder air continues to usher into the area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
VFR conditions expected to prevail through the period, although
some brief MVFR conditions will occur near KPIA through the midday
hour. Most of the stratocumulus will be out of the TAF sites by
mid afternoon, however some mid and high clouds will stream
southeast across the area late afternoon into tonight. Winds
expected to become gusty for awhile as the pressure gradient
tightens ahead of a boundary, which will pass through central
Illinois between 07-11Z. South-southwest winds will turn more
westerly behind this boundary. Late in the period, an area of MVFR
ceilings will drop southward due to disturbances rotating through
the Great Lakes. This is likely to reach areas from KPIA-KCMI by
late Thursday morning.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1030 AM MST WED JAN 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 AM MST WED JAN 27 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A LARGE
SCALE RIDGE WITH 582 DM CENTER EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN US
WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS OUR CWA. AT THE THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FROM EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
RIDGE WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY. A DEEP DRY AIR MASS WILL
PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CHANCES DESPITE A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSAGES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MAIN IMPACT ON THESE
FEATURES WILL BE PASSING MID-HIGH CLOUDS WHICH COULD COMPLICATE
DIURNAL TRENDS AND DAYTIME MIXING. OVERALL EXPECT THE SHORT RANGE
PERIOD TO BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL AND DRY. OVERALL TREND IN GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING BETTER DOWNSLOPE AND WAA PARTICULARLY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND I TRENDED TEMPS UP OVER PARTS OF OUR CWA. FRIDAY IS A
LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED REGARDING HIGHS AS MODELS ARE SHOWING PRE
FRONTAL TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTH AND FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF OUR CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. RESULT COULD BE HIGHS IN THE
SOUTH APPROACHING 70 IN OUR SOUTH AND HIGHS IN THE NORTH COOLER
THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED.
REGARDING FIRE WEATHER TODAY...IF MIXING IS NOT HAMPERED BY
INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE GUSTS
20-25 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. BEST CHANCE FOR RH TO APPROACH
15 PERCENT IS STILL IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA...AND AS
OF CURRENT SOUNDINGS IT STILL LOOKS LIKE RH SHOULD REMAIN JUST
ABOVE THIS. EVEN IF THERE IS A BRIEF/LOCALIZED CROSSOVER OF 15% RH
AND 25 MPH WIND GUSTS THIS WILL LIKELY NOT REACH OUR 3HR
REQUIREMENT FOR RFW. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TODAY...AND KEEP
MENTION IN HWO FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM MST WED JAN 27 2016
UPPER FLOW SHOULD BE ZONAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES
SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY. THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH
SHOULD BE OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE
MISSOURI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN
BEHIND THE EXITING STORM TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN FEATURES
OF THE TROUGH. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT IN EARLIER WHILE THE GFS HOLDS
IT OVER THE AREA LONGER. BOTH MODELS BRING THE STORM ACROSS THE
FAVORED PANHANDLE REGION WHICH WOULD PRODUCE A GOOD SNOWFALL EVENT
FOR THE FA. IF SIGNIFICANT SNOW FALLS...WINDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY COULD CREATE ISSUES WITH TRAVEL. DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING... THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A
COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH READINGS FROM 40 TO 45. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL GET PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WITH READINGS FROM 35 TO 40
MONDAY AND 25 TO 30 TUESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY COOL
INTO THE 20S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. COLDER MIN TEMPERATURES
IN THE TEENS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MST WED JAN 27 2016
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGH CIRRUS SPREADS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT CLEAR SKIES
SHOULD BE OTHERWISE EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH SLIDES IN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET...BACKING ONCE AGAIN TO THE WEST.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1127 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 218 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
Longwave trough continues to push southeast out the area, clearing
Kansas in the overnight hours. Attention on latest water vapor
imagery is brought to the Saskatchewan/Montana area as a shortwave
was moving southeast across this area. Weak surface pressure falls
behind the departing weak surface anticyclone bringing light south
to southwest winds to many local sites overnight. RAP data
indicating 10-15kt southwest winds around 800ft AGL and seems to be
enough to keep any fog formation in check.
The northern upper wave continues southeast into the Great Lakes
area today and tonight. A weak surface trough passes late tonight,
with southwest winds increasing a bit today and providing enough
mixing into a warming 850-925mb airmass for a noticeably warmer day
today despite increasing mid and high cloud. The remaining snowpack
over northern and western areas may hold temps back a bit, but
should still be able to reach into the 40s here. The warmer airmass
and more mixing tonight should keep lows in the mid to upper 20s as
the clouds thin.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 218 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
Temperatures aloft continue to rise through the mid and late week,
bringing highs in the 50s Thursday with upper 50s to lower 60s by
Friday. Weak shortwave trof skims the area Friday into Friday
night, but temperatures recover quickly behind the system to
still bring highs in the 50s on Saturday. This may be underdone if
pool of warmer mid level temps ahead of the next front can park
overhead and mix into this layer with southerly winds that day.
Sunday may start out warm, but with front passing through the day
temperatures start to fall in the afternoon. There are model
differences in how fast the next northern clipper moves to the
east, and how much cold air it moves southeast in the process,
with EC colder than the GFS for Sunday. Both have our area north
of the front on Monday with overrunning precipitation intensifying
as the next upper trof approaches.
Latest EC by sunrise Tuesday is wound up over SC Kansas with
strong winds and snow driving southward across western Kansas. GFS
is slower and farther south, with an elongated surface low
stretching SW to NE across Missouri, while the EC already has the
low into Illinois. Several of the GFS ensemble 500mb height
comparisons are quite different in how they handle the system as
it moves out of the west, and is still quite early to jump on any
one solution given the system is somewhere out over the Bering
Sea. Current runs of operational GFS and EC bring accumulating
snow and strong winds to our western counties. Still considerable
uncertainty, with this possible stronger solution noteworthy.
Lots of time for forecast track and strength to shift around.
Worth keeping an eye on, while still noting the system is at least
6 days out.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period at all
terminals.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Baerg
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
547 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 218 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
Longwave trough continues to push southeast out the area, clearing
Kansas in the overnight hours. Attention on latest water vapor
imagery is brought to the Saskatchewan/Montana area as a shortwave
was moving southeast across this area. Weak surface pressure falls
behind the departing weak surface anticyclone bringing light south
to southwest winds to many local sites overnight. RAP data
indicating 10-15kt southwest winds around 800ft AGL and seems to be
enough to keep any fog formation in check.
The northern upper wave continues southeast into the Great Lakes
area today and tonight. A weak surface trough passes late tonight,
with southwest winds increasing a bit today and providing enough
mixing into a warming 850-925mb airmass for a noticeably warmer day
today despite increasing mid and high cloud. The remaining snowpack
over northern and western areas may hold temps back a bit, but
should still be able to reach into the 40s here. The warmer airmass
and more mixing tonight should keep lows in the mid to upper 20s as
the clouds thin.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 218 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
Temperatures aloft continue to rise through the mid and late week,
bringing highs in the 50s Thursday with upper 50s to lower 60s by
Friday. Weak shortwave trof skims the area Friday into Friday
night, but temperatures recover quickly behind the system to
still bring highs in the 50s on Saturday. This may be underdone if
pool of warmer mid level temps ahead of the next front can park
overhead and mix into this layer with southerly winds that day.
Sunday may start out warm, but with front passing through the day
temperatures start to fall in the afternoon. There are model
differences in how fast the next northern clipper moves to the
east, and how much cold air it moves southeast in the process,
with EC colder than the GFS for Sunday. Both have our area north
of the front on Monday with overrunning precipitation intensifying
as the next upper trof approaches.
Latest EC by sunrise Tuesday is wound up over SC Kansas with
strong winds and snow driving southward across western Kansas. GFS
is slower and farther south, with an elongated surface low
stretching SW to NE across Missouri, while the EC already has the
low into Illinois. Several of the GFS ensemble 500mb height
comparisons are quite different in how they handle the system as
it moves out of the west, and is still quite early to jump on any
one solution given the system is somewhere out over the Bering
Sea. Current runs of operational GFS and EC bring accumulating
snow and strong winds to our western counties. Still considerable
uncertainty, with this possible stronger solution noteworthy.
Lots of time for forecast track and strength to shift around.
Worth keeping an eye on, while still noting the system is at least
6 days out.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 547 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
VFR conditions should continue. Winds are the main challenge,
particularly with mixing depths from 15Z-22Z. Bumped up speeds a
bit, with some gusts at FOE, but confidence is not high. Wind
shift to the west looks a bit later than earlier forecasts.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
408 AM MST WED JAN 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 AM MST WED JAN 27 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A LARGE
SCALE RIDGE WITH 582 DM CENTER EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN US
WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS OUR CWA. AT THE THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FROM EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
RIDGE WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY. A DEEP DRY AIR MASS WILL
PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CHANCES DESPITE A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSAGES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MAIN IMPACT ON THESE
FEATURES WILL BE PASSING MID-HIGH CLOUDS WHICH COULD COMPLICATE
DIURNAL TRENDS AND DAYTIME MIXING. OVERALL EXPECT THE SHORT RANGE
PERIOD TO BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL AND DRY. OVERALL TREND IN GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING BETTER DOWNSLOPE AND WAA PARTICULARLY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND I TRENDED TEMPS UP OVER PARTS OF OUR CWA. FRIDAY IS A
LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED REGARDING HIGHS AS MODELS ARE SHOWING PRE
FRONTAL TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTH AND FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF OUR CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. RESULT COULD BE HIGHS IN THE
SOUTH APPROACHING 70 IN OUR SOUTH AND HIGHS IN THE NORTH COOLER
THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED.
REGARDING FIRE WEATHER TODAY...IF MIXING IS NOT HAMPERED BY
INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE GUSTS
20-25 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. BEST CHANCE FOR RH TO APPROACH
15 PERCENT IS STILL IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA...AND AS
OF CURRENT SOUNDINGS IT STILL LOOKS LIKE RH SHOULD REMAIN JUST
ABOVE THIS. EVEN IF THERE IS A BRIEF/LOCALIZED CROSSOVER OF 15% RH
AND 25 MPH WIND GUSTS THIS WILL LIKELY NOT REACH OUR 3HR
REQUIREMENT FOR RFW. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TODAY...AND KEEP
MENTION IN HWO FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM MST WED JAN 27 2016
UPPER FLOW SHOULD BE ZONAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES
SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY. THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH
SHOULD BE OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE
MISSOURI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN
BEHIND THE EXITING STORM TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN FEATURES
OF THE TROUGH. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT IN EARLIER WHILE THE GFS HOLDS
IT OVER THE AREA LONGER. BOTH MODELS BRING THE STORM ACROSS THE
FAVORED PANHANDLE REGION WHICH WOULD PRODUCE A GOOD SNOWFALL EVENT
FOR THE FA. IF SIGNIFICANT SNOW FALLS...WINDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY COULD CREATE ISSUES WITH TRAVEL. DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING... THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A
COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH READINGS FROM 40 TO 45. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL GET PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WITH READINGS FROM 35 TO 40
MONDAY AND 25 TO 30 TUESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY COOL
INTO THE 20S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. COLDER MIN TEMPERATURES
IN THE TEENS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MST WED JAN 27 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS COMBINED WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NW WINDS DEVELOPING AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON (20-30KT
POSSIBLE). THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW 12KT AFTER SUNSET AND
WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO THE WEST.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
226 AM MST WED JAN 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 AM MST WED JAN 27 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A LARGE
SCALE RIDGE WITH 582 DM CENTER EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN US
WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS OUR CWA. AT THE THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FROM EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
RIDGE WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY. A DEEP DRY AIR MASS WILL
PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CHANCES DESPITE A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSAGES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MAIN IMPACT ON THESE
FEATURES WILL BE PASSING MID-HIGH CLOUDS WHICH COULD COMPLICATE
DIURNAL TRENDS AND DAYTIME MIXING. OVERALL EXPECT THE SHORT RANGE
PERIOD TO BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL AND DRY. OVERALL TREND IN GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING BETTER DOWNSLOPE AND WAA PARTICULARLY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND I TRENDED TEMPS UP OVER PARTS OF OUR CWA. FRIDAY IS A
LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED REGARDING HIGHS AS MODELS ARE SHOWING PRE
FRONTAL TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTH AND FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF OUR CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. RESULT COULD BE HIGHS IN THE
SOUTH APPROACHING 70 IN OUR SOUTH AND HIGHS IN THE NORTH COOLER
THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED.
REGARDING FIRE WEATHER TODAY...IF MIXING IS NOT HAMPERED BY
INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE GUSTS
20-25 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. BEST CHANCE FOR RH TO APPROACH
15 PERCENT IS STILL IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA...AND AS
OF CURRENT SOUNDINGS IT STILL LOOKS LIKE RH SHOULD REMAIN JUST
ABOVE THIS. EVEN IF THERE IS A BRIEF/LOCALIZED CROSSOVER OF 15% RH
AND 25 MPH WIND GUSTS THIS WILL LIKELY NOT REACH OUR 3HR
REQUIREMENT FOR RFW. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TODAY...AND KEEP
MENTION IN HWO FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM MST WED JAN 27 2016
UPPER FLOW SHOULD BE ZONAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES
SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY. THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH
SHOULD BE OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE
MISSOURI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN
BEHIND THE EXITING STORM TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN FEATURES
OF THE TROUGH. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT IN EARLIER WHILE THE GFS HOLDS
IT OVER THE AREA LONGER. BOTH MODELS BRING THE STORM ACROSS THE
FAVORED PANHANDLE REGION WHICH WOULD PRODUCE A GOOD SNOWFALL EVENT
FOR THE FA. IF SIGNIFICANT SNOW FALLS...WINDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY COULD CREATE ISSUES WITH TRAVEL. DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING... THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A
COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH READINGS FROM 40 TO 45. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL GET PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WITH READINGS FROM 35 TO 40
MONDAY AND 25 TO 30 TUESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY COOL
INTO THE 20S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. COLDER MIN TEMPERATURES
IN THE TEENS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 942 PM MST TUE JAN 26 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. AT THAT TIME SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE NEAR 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 24 KNOTS. NEAR SUNSET THE WINDS WILL DECREASE AND
AND LOSE THEIR GUSTINESS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
304 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 218 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
Longwave trough continues to push southeast out the area, clearing
Kansas in the overnight hours. Attention on latest water vapor
imagery is brought to the Saskatchewan/Montana area as a shortwave
was moving southeast across this area. Weak surface pressure falls
behind the departing weak surface anticyclone bringing light south
to southwest winds to many local sites overnight. RAP data
indicating 10-15kt southwest winds around 800ft AGL and seems to be
enough to keep any fog formation in check.
The northern upper wave continues southeast into the Great Lakes
area today and tonight. A weak surface trough passes late tonight,
with southwest winds increasing a bit today and providing enough
mixing into a warming 850-925mb airmass for a noticeably warmer day
today despite increasing mid and high cloud. The remaining snowpack
over northern and western areas may hold temps back a bit, but
should still be able to reach into the 40s here. The warmer airmass
and more mixing tonight should keep lows in the mid to upper 20s as
the clouds thin.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 218 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
Temperatures aloft continue to rise through the mid and late week,
bringing highs in the 50s Thursday with upper 50s to lower 60s by
Friday. Weak shortwave trof skims the area Friday into Friday
night, but temperatures recover quickly behind the system to
still bring highs in the 50s on Saturday. This may be underdone if
pool of warmer mid level temps ahead of the next front can park
overhead and mix into this layer with southerly winds that day.
Sunday may start out warm, but with front passing through the day
temperatures start to fall in the afternoon. There are model
differences in how fast the next northern clipper moves to the
east, and how much cold air it moves southeast in the process,
with EC colder than the GFS for Sunday. Both have our area north
of the front on Monday with overrunning precipitation intensifying
as the next upper trof approaches.
Latest EC by sunrise Tuesday is wound up over SC Kansas with
strong winds and snow driving southward across western Kansas. GFS
is slower and farther south, with an elongated surface low
stretching SW to NE across Missouri, while the EC already has the
low into Illinois. Several of the GFS ensemble 500mb height
comparisons are quite different in how they handle the system as
it moves out of the west, and is still quite early to jump on any
one solution given the system is somewhere out over the Bering
Sea. Current runs of operational GFS and EC bring accumulating
snow and strong winds to our western counties. Still considerable
uncertainty, with this possible stronger solution noteworthy.
Lots of time for forecast track and strength to shift around.
Worth keeping an eye on, while still noting the system is at least
6 days out.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday)
Issued at 1057 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
Confidence in ground fog developing is decreasing as the
HRRR/RAP/MOS guidance show VSBY remaining 6 miles or better.
Additionally the forecast soundings prog winds just off the
surface to begin increasing around 09Z which should increase dry
air entrainment into the boundary layer. Because of this am
inclined to remove fog from the forecast. If it were to form, it`d
likely be around MHK for a few hours. By 09Z and 10Z, fog chances
seem to fade as low level winds pick up.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1110 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1110 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
Aviation update.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 229 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
Those stubborn low clouds are still hanging around...and the RAP
modeling of 925 mb moisture suggests this may continue...at least
thru the first half of today. It will probably take until the H5
trof passes this pm...to really allow the low level moisture to
depart. And the RAP confirms, showing it exiting our northeastern
counties around 00Z Thursday.
This will impact temps, with mostly 30s forecast except perhaps
for western counties (SEMO Ozarks)...where more sunshine and lower
40s is possible.
A surface high pressure ridge strengthens overhead by Friday. This
will commence a moderating trend...with temperatures working back
through the 40s and maybe even getting into some lower 50s in
SEMO. Nightly lows in the 20s are anticipated until Friday...when
the moderating trends toward lows in the 30s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 229 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
At 00z Saturday, models show surface high pressure off the southeast
coast and surface low pressure over the Central Plains. This will
keep our area in strong south to southwest flow through the weekend
into early next week which will keep our temperatures well above
seasonal normals. This will also bring more moisture into the area.
The surface low will move east and northeast into the Great Lakes
region. Models are all over the place with the track and timing of
the low, with GFS now much faster moving the associated cold front
across our region. ECMWF and the Canadian are more consistent with
their previous solutions, lingering the front across our region for
the early part of the work week, and prefer these solutions. Went
with slight and chance pops for the PAH forecast area for showers
Sunday into Monday night, then another area of low pressure will
move along the front on Tuesday. This will increase our chances for
showers, and with some instability moving into the area, included
slight chances for thunderstorms on Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1110 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
Clouds 2.5-3k/ft decreasing in coverage with mixing and eventually
a developing SW flow at 925mb aiding the process. Should
transition to clear through the evening. Overnight some mid level
energy will move NW-SE across the area accompanied by some
mid/high clouds. Winds will gradually become SSW 3-7 kts or so
this evening on through Thursday morning. No visibility
restrictions.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
237 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 229 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
Those stubborn low clouds are still hanging around...and the RAP
modeling of 925 mb moisture suggests this may continue...at least
thru the first half of today. It will probably take until the H5
trof passes this pm...to really allow the low level moisture to
depart. And the RAP confirms, showing it exiting our northeastern
counties around 00Z Thursday.
This will impact temps, with mostly 30s forecast except perhaps
for western counties (SEMO Ozarks)...where more sunshine and lower
40s is possible.
A surface high pressure ridge strengthens overhead by Friday. This
will commence a moderating trend...with temperatures working back
through the 40s and maybe even getting into some lower 50s in
SEMO. Nightly lows in the 20s are anticipated until Friday...when
the moderating trends toward lows in the 30s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 229 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
At 00z Saturday, models show surface high pressure off the southeast
coast and surface low pressure over the Central Plains. This will
keep our area in strong south to southwest flow through the weekend
into early next week which will keep our temperatures well above
seasonal normals. This will also bring more moisture into the area.
The surface low will move east and northeast into the Great Lakes
region. Models are all over the place with the track and timing of
the low, with GFS now much faster moving the associated cold front
across our region. ECMWF and the Canadian are more consistent with
their previous solutions, lingering the front across our region for
the early part of the work week, and prefer these solutions. Went
with slight and chance pops for the PAH forecast area for showers
Sunday into Monday night, then another area of low pressure will
move along the front on Tuesday. This will increase our chances for
showers, and with some instability moving into the area, included
slight chances for thunderstorms on Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 229 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
MVFR cigs are modeled well by the RAP at 925 mb, which suggests
they`ll hold on virtually everywhere through the first half of the
day. KCGI/KPAH may see some breaks on the western edge, but
predominantly Cigs. A real clearing likely doesnt commence until
the upper trof passes...which will occur during the pm hours.
Clouds will depart the northeast terminals last...with the RAP
showing KEVV/KCGI clearing around/shortly after 00Z.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
246 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE BRINGS SNOW SHOWER CHANCES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ROLL IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO APPROACH BY MORNING.
A FEW FLURRIES MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT A SOUTHWEST WIND SHIFT
WILL PUSH ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UNSURE AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT...AS
DIURNAL STRATOCU THAT HAS DEVELOPED TODAY SHOULD DIMINISH BUT
STRATUS FURTHER EAST OVER OHIO MAY PIVOT TOWARD THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...OPTED TO HOLD SOME CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTH
AND WEST PER THE LATEST HRRR MODEL DATA AND PROJECTS BASED ON THE
LATEST SATELLITE. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WE WILL DECOUPLE...SO
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT
DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING. THUS...LOWS WERE FORECAST
NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK ASCENT IN THE 285-295K LAYER QUICKLY LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WARM FRONT.
HOWEVER...VERY POOR SATURATION IS NOTED IN THE LAYER AS EVIDENCED
BY CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ON THE GFS AND NAM FAILING TO
FALL MUCH BELOW 30-50 HPA. ADDITIONALLY...MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LIFT AND DEPTH OF
MOISTURE BELOW THE LAYER...CHANCE TO LOW-END LIKELY POPS WERE
MAINTAINED AS THE LEADING WAVE WITH WARM ADVECTION AND SECONDARY
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT TRUCK THROUGH ON THURSDAY
MORNING AND EVENING RESPECTIVELY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LAYER LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...A WARMING SURFACE LAYER DURING
THE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS FOR MOST PLACES UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
COLDER AIR AND RISING INVERSION HEIGHTS WITH MORE UNIFORM UNI-
DIRECTIONAL UNSTABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LAYER BELOW
THE INVERSION CHARACTERIZE THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AMPLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP...WHICH WILL BECOME ENHANCED AS THEY REACH THE RIDGES. IT
TAKES MOST OF THE NIGHT FOR THE INVERSION HEIGHT TO RISE INTO THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER...HOWEVER...SO SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH DOES NOT
LOOK OPTIMAL AT THE ONSET. AS A RESULT...SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE. THIS WILL KEEP UPSLOPE SNOWS FROM
BECOMING TOO EFFICIENT AS THE NIGHT ENSUES.
DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
THIS WILL START TO WIND DOWN SNOW SHOWER CHANCES.
ADDITIONALLY...AND INCOMING SURFACE RIDGE WILL TURN THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURE MODERATION GOING INTO SATURDAY AS A WAVE TRANSITS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...LEAVING OUR AREA UNDER GENERAL WARM
ADVECTION. FRIES
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS SET TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
HEIGHTS TO INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. AS THIS
OCCURS...THE JET IS SET TO MOVE NORTH OF OUR AREA BY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TO
START TO OCCUR.
ONE LAST NORTHERN STREAM STORM IS FAVORED TO TRANSIT THE AREA WITH
RAIN ON MONDAY PER THE MODEL CONSENSUS BEFORE THE DEEP WESTERN
TROUGH SLOWLY DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. AS IT DOES SO...WARM
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO MID-WEEK AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
RAIN CHANCES PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING. FRIES
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU WILL PREVAIL AT MOST SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE COVERAGE DIMINISHES. MODEL OUTPUT FOR CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT HAS VARIED BUT IT NOW APPEARS THAT SOME STRATUS WILL
STAY ENTRENCHED ACROSS A PORTION OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
THUS...MVFR OR MVFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY.
.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OCNL RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WL RETURN WITH A SERIES OF LATE WEEK
AND WEEKEND DISTURBANCES.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
145 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE BRINGS SNOW SHOWER CHANCES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO APPROACH BY MORNING.
A FEW FLURRIES MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT A SOUTHWEST WIND SHIFT
WILL PUSH ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UNSURE AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT...AS
DIURNAL STRATOCU THAT HAS DEVELOPED TODAY SHOULD DIMINISH BUT
STRATUS FURTHER EAST OVER OHIO MAY PIVOT TOWARD THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...OPTED TO HOLD SOME CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTH
AND WEST PER THE LATEST HRRR MODEL DATA AND PROJECTS BASED ON THE
LATEST SATELLITE. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WE WILL DECOUPLE...SO
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT
DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING. THUS...LOWS WERE FORECAST
NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED FOR THURSDAY PASSAGE OVR THE UPR OHIO REGION. CURRENT
OMEGA/ASCENT FIELDS SUGGEST GENL WEAKNESS IN THE SYSTEM...BUT WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE DEPTH TO SPPRT PRECIP. HAVE THUS FORECAST CHC
TO LIKELY SNOW SHWRS...WITH BTR NUMBERS NORTH...FOR A LGT PCPN
EVENT WITH ACCUMULATION FURTHER TEMPERED BY AN INITIALLY WARM
BOUNDARY LYR.
COLD ADVCTN AND A LINEAR MIXING LYR WIND PROFILE IN THE WAKE OF
THE SFC REFLECTION SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL...AND BTR ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN LEE OF
THE LAKES AND FOR THE RIDGES. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR THAT EVENTUALITY
IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY MID LVL TROF PROGRESSION. NO REAL
ALTERATIONS WERE COMPLETED FOR THE PRECIP PROB FORECAST OF THAT
TIME FRAME.
TEMP FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE USING SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FLOW PTN IS FORECAST TO BE DOMINATED BY LOW PRES
EMERGING OUT OF THE SWRN CONUS...WITH WARM ADVCTN FOR POINTS EAST
TEMPERED BY NRN STREAM SHRTWV ENERGY CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES.
MORE MODERATE TEMPS APPROX 10 DEGS ABOVE THE AVGS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE OFFSET BY CHC...NR CLIMO POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PD.
TWEAKED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST
CONSTRUCTION.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU WILL PREVAIL AT MOST SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE COVERAGE DIMINISHES. MODEL OUTPUT FOR CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT HAS VARIED BUT IT NOW APPEARS THAT SOME STRATUS WILL
STAY ENTRENCHED ACROSS A PORTION OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
THUS...MVFR OR MVFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY.
.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OCNL RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WL RETURN WITH A SERIES OF LATE WEEK
AND WEEKEND DISTURBANCES.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
337 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO EXIT EAST AWAY FROM MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE IS NEARING THE ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THRU
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL
SW FLOW/WAA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...LIMITING ANY RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT
PRECIP TO MAINLY FLURRIES ACROSS OUR CWA ATTM.
LATEST BASE REF IMAGES FROM UPSTREAM RADARS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF
WIDESPREAD SNOW TAKING SHAPE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN IN
ADVANCE OF THE LOW CENTER AND COLD FRONT. BOTH THE RAP AND THE NAM
SHOW THIS LEADING EDGE REACHING OUR WRN CWA JUST BEFORE 00Z...
QUICKLY SPREADING EASTWARD THRU THE REST OF OUR CWA THEREAFTER. WITH
DELTA T`S OF AROUND 10 DEGREES...SUSPECT LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF SW
FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN (I.E. OUR FAR WRN CWA) MAY VERY WELL SEE
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ONCE INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
ACTIVATE SEEDER/FEEDER PROCESSES ALOFT PER LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND CROSS SECTIONS. WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THIS TAKING SHAPE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW DEVELOPING EARLY THIS EVENING
ONCE MID LEVELS MOISTEN.
CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORIES ACROSS ERN UPR AND NW LWR MICHIGAN
REMAIN IN LINE WITH LATEST MODEL TRENDS...AND IN COORDINATION WITH
GRR...WILL KEEP ALL HEADLINES IN TACT. STILL EXPECT A GENERAL 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW FOR THESE AREAS...TAPERING TO LESS THAN AN INCH
ACROSS NE LWR MICHIGAN AWAY FROM ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT. CERTAINLY THE
GUSTY SW WINDS WILL PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...AND MAKE
OVERALL DRIVING CONDITIONS RATHER HAZARDOUS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...WHICH DECIDEDLY THROWS THIS EVENT INTO ADVISORY TERRITORY
DESPITE BORDERLINE SNOW AMOUNTS. TEMPS WILL STAY NEARLY STEADY
TONIGHT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S THANKS TO WAA AND AMPLE CLOUD
COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
FORECAST CHALLENGE: SEVERAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES, BRINGING POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION TYPE PROBLEMS, AND LAKE
EFFECT.
(1/28)THURSDAY...THE CLIPPER SYSTEM IS IN EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT
12Z. AS IT MOVES EAST IN THE MORNING, THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP QUITE A BIT BY 18Z, AND WE START GETTING NW WINDS OF 15-
20 KNOTS ACROSS N LOWER AND E UPPER. THIS GETS THE LES GOING AS THE
850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND -10C BY 00Z. NW TO NNW SNOW BANDS
WILL BEGIN TO FORM. HOWEVER, AS THE CLIPPER MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES, DESPITE THE NORTH TO NNW WIND FLOW AND CHILLY AIR
ACROSS LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN, THERE IS VERY DRY AIR TRAILING
THIS SYSTEM AS THE 850-700 MB RH FALLS TO LESS THAN 15% UPSTREAM IN
W UPPER AND WISCONSIN BY 06Z. THE DRY AIR IS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AS WE GET INTO THE OVERNIGHT, WITH THE RH IN THE LAYER AT 10% OR
LESS BY 12Z. WILL THERE BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS? YES, BUT THE INTENSITY
OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT BY 12Z. SO LIGHT AMOUNTS
DURING THE DAY AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST AND MINOR AMOUNTS, MAINLY
NEAR TVC AS THE DRY AIR DIMINISHES THE SNOW SHOWERS.
(1/29)FRIDAY...THERE COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES NEAR TVC AS THE WINDS
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT THE DRY AIR IS FULLY IN CONTROL AND
MINIMIZING THE SNOW PRODUCTION POTENTIAL. SO WILL LEAVE THE MORNING
DRY. AFTER 18Z, THE RIDGE SFC AND 850 MB AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS TURNS THE 1000-850 MB LAYER WINDS FROM WNW TO SW IN A
HURRY. BY 00Z, THE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SW, BUT THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN N LAKE MICHIGAN ARE EXPECTED TO BE -8C(NEAR ST.
IGNACE) OR WARMER. WITH THE WATER TEMPERATURES AROUND +3C THEN WE
DON`T HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO EVEN GET SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL LITTLE TO NO LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN THE
EVENING, BUT THE MAIN SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO THE REGION, WITH THE
WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF US AND THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THE SNOW
GETTING INTO E UPPER AND NW LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY. NOW THEY JUST
BARELY GET THE CHANCE FOR SNOW INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY. FOR MORE
MOST PLACES IT WILL BE A DRY DAY.
AFTER 00Z, THE NEXT CLIPPER, WHICH HAS ITS BAROCLINIC ZONE STRUNG
OUT OVER THE STATE FROM NW TO SE, DROPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND THE SNOW BEGINS TO SPREAD OVER THE STATE. MOST OF THE FOCUS WILL
BE WITH THE MOISTURE WHICH LOOKS LIKE UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS BEING A
CLIPPER SYSTEM, IT`S PRETTY MOISTURE STARVED, SO THE AMOUNTS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT OVER E UPPER AND MINOR TO LIGHT OVER N LOWER.
(1/30)SATURDAY...THE CLIPPER TURNS ITS CORNER NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR, AND BEGINS HEADING EAST INTO QUEBEC BEFORE ITS CORE EVER
GETS TO LAKE SUPERIOR. DRY AIR AT 850 MB WILL PUSH UP INTO THE S
LOWER, AS THE CLIPPER MOVES OUT, AND THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE ON
THE RISE. WINDS REMAIN SW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, SO WILL EXPECT THE
SYSTEM PRECIPITATION (MAINLY SNOW) WILL CONTINUE OUT BY THE
AFTERNOON, AND THE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA, BEFORE SUNSET.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
THINGS CONTINUE TO LOOK ACTIVE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A BRIEF
WARMING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS COULD GET
TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING...RESULTING IN SOME RAIN/MIX PRECIP ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF ARRIVING SNOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH TIMING ISSUES THIS FAR OUT. A SYSTEM IN THE TUE/WED
TIME FRAME IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE MAIN STORY OF THIS EXTENDED. THIS
IS AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SYSTEM...WITH A SOUTHERLY TRACK THAT WILL
ENABLE A GOOD TAP OF GULF MOISTURE TO GO ALONG WITH THE STRONG
FORCING. IT IS A BIT EARLY FOR SPECIFICS...BUT THIS IS A STORM TO
KEEP AN EYE ON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD SNOW THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES JUST NORTH OF
MICHIGAN TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO IFR FROM
WEST T0 EAST AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT FOR NW LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES
BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. LLWS WILL ALSO THIS EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL SW WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...WITH MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITHIN THESE SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REACH GALE FORCE ALONG OUR LAKE MICHIGAN
NEARSHORE AREAS TONIGHT AS SW WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING JUST NORTH OF MICHIGAN. SCA CRITERIA WINDS AND WAVES ARE
EXPECTED FOR OUR LAKE HURON NEARSHORE AREAS. CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH
GALE FORCE ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NEARSHORE AREAS ON THURSDAY AS
WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AND STRENGTHEN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MUCH OF OUR
NEARSHORE AREA THRU THURSDAY...RESULTING IN REDUCED VSBYS.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR MIZ008-015-016-019>021-025-026-031-032.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...MAYHEW
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT WILL BRING A QUICK BURST OF SNOW TO SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ABOUT SAUGATUCK
NORTHWARD WILL SEE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SNOW TONIGHT THAT MAY
ACCUMULATE TO 1 TO 3 INCHES. A FEW SPOTS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN COULD SEE 4 INCHES. OVERNIGHT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA
ON THURSDAY AND BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO THE PICTURE AGAIN FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SOME LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
FOCUS IS ON THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
FAVORED SOUTHWEST FLOW AREAS TONIGHT. WILL BE MAKING NO CHANGES TO
THE GOING HEADLINE. STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME IMPACT FROM
A COUPLE ROUNDS OF QUICK HITTING SNOW TONIGHT. THE HRRR FOR MULTIPLE
RUNS NOW TODAY IS SHOWING SEVERAL BURSTS OF SNOW ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT THAT IS POSSIBLE WITH
DELTA T/S OF 8 TO 11 DEGREE C. STRONG LIFT IS NOTED IN THE BUFKIT
TIME SECTIONS ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. THE LIFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
ONE/TWO PUNCH FROM A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE
AREA TONIGHT. THE FIRST COMES THROUGH IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME WITH
ANOTHER AFTER 06Z. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AT TIMES BUT THE BURST
OF SNOW SHOULD PUT DOWN 1 TO POSSIBLE 4 INCHES OF SNOW. THE HIGHEST
TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE HIGH GROUND ACROSS EASTERN LAKE AND
OSCEOLA COUNTIES.
IMPACTS MAY BE MODULATED SOME HOWEVER BY THE FACT THAT AIR TEMPS ARE
GOING TO BE NEAR FREEZING. ALSO...THE FACT THAT THE BLOWING SNOW
WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY THE WET NATURE OF THE SNOW. OVERNIGHT SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THAT THE DGZ BECOMES UNSATURATED
WITH CONTINUED LIFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER. AGAIN...THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
MAY BE MITIGATED BY THE SLOWING RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT.
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS DELTA T/S PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. MOISTURE DEPTH
IS DECREASING WITH TIME AND THINKING WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT ANYTHING
TOO HEAVY...ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR TWO.
ANOTHER CLIPPER IN THE SERIES ROTATES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND WE
WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN FLANK ONCE AGAIN. 850MB TEMPS ARE TRENDING
TOWARD THE NEED TO INTRODUCE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION. AT THIS POINT
KEPT THINGS ALL LIGHT SNOW WITH CHANCE POPS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
AN ACTIVE WX PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FCST
PERIOD. ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF MIXED LIGHT RAIN
AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN ON SUNDAY AND BRING
RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE 40S.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAP LOTS OF GULF MOISTURE
AS IT ADVANCES NE TOWARD OUR AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ICE GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WHICH WILL ALSO FEATURE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH BY
TUESDAY.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND
EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER THE GENERAL NOTION IS
UNDOUBTEDLY THERE THAT IT COULD POTENTIALLY BRING A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF WINTRY PCPN LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE EVOLUTION OF THAT SYSTEM CLOSELY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM EST WED JAN 27 2016
PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY VFR IS
POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR
OVERNIGHT AS SNOW DEVELOPS. IN ADDITION SW WINDS WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AND REACH 20 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
30 KTS BY LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE
LOW CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WINDS THURSDAY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG BUT WILL STILL GUST TO
AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH 18Z.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
ISSUED A GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY AS IT IS EXPECTED THAT WINDS WILL
SURGE TO GALE FORCE THIS EVENING. THERE IS ABOUT A 6 HOUR WINDOW
TONIGHT WHERE THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TO THE POINT THAT WE ARE
EXPECTING 35-40 KNOT GALES. THE STRONGER GALES WILL BE ALONG THE
HIGHER BLUFFS OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKESHORE...NORTH OF GRAND
HAVEN. WAVES SHOULD BUILD TOWARD 10 FEET OVERNIGHT.
THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY COME DOWN BELOW GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT...BUT
REMAIN UP IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE BOTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED LAST NIGHT AND THAT REMAINS IN
EFFECT NOW FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 205 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. FLOODING CONCERNS ARE
MINIMAL WITH MINOR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
5 DAYS. THE MAIN TOPIC IS MORE THAN LIKELY WHAT COMES TOWARD THE
END OF THE LONG TERM (NEXT WEEK).
A FEW ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BETWEEN NOW AND THIS WEEKEND. EACH ROUND IS EXPECTED
TO BRING MINOR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. SNOWFALL IS THE LIKELY MODE
OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY. MILDER WEATHER WILL BE PUSHING
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THIS WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO
THE 40S BY SUNDAY...IF NOT AS EARLY AS SATURDAY. RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN BY LATE SUNDAY.
THE REAL CONCERN EXTENDS INTO NEXT WEEK WITH WHAT MAY BE A RATHER
POTENT SYSTEM. MANY QUESTIONS STILL EXIST WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND STORM TRACK. THAT SAID...THE STORM LOOKS TO BE EQUIPPED WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE. IF THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS RAIN...WE COULD
BE LOOKING AT RIVER RISES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR MIZ037>039-043>045-050-056-057-064.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
LMZ844>849.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
330 AM EST WED JAN 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR TROF
EXTENDING FM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF UPR RDG
OVER THE ROCKIES. SHRTWV/SFC LO PRES RESPONSIBLE FOR WDSPRD SN THAT
IMPACTED THE CWA LAST NGT INTO THIS MRNG IS EXITING TO THE NE THRU
SE CANADA...BUT ANOTHER SHRTWV DIGGING SE THRU THE UPR
MIDWEST/ACCOMPANYING DPVA AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/DEEP MSTR SHOWN
ON THE 12Z GRB RAOB AS WELL AS LINGERING CYC NNW FLOW OF COLDER AIR
DROPPING H85 TEMPS TOWARD -14C IS MAINTAINING SOME SN MAINLY NEAR LK
SUP. 12Z INL RAOB SHOWS MID LVL DRYING LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SHRTWV...AND BACK EDGE OF COLDER CLD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS DRYING IS PUSHING SEWD THRU THE CWA THIS AFTN.
SN INTENSITIES DIMINISHED QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THIS
DRYING. LOOKING UPSTREAM... THERE IS A SHRTWV OVER WRN CANADA RIDING
OVER THE ROCKIES RDG.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU WED WL BE ON POPS INTO THIS EVNG AND THEN ON
WINDS/POTENTIAL FOR SOME SN ON WED AFTN IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF SHRTWV NOW TOPPING THE ROCKIES RDG.
TNGT...EXPECT SN SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR LK SUP THIS EVNG IN LINGERING
CYC FLOW TO DIMINISH TNGT WITH ARRIVAL OF DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR
DVGC/MORE ACYC LLVL FLOW/WARMING H85 TEMPS ACCOMPANYING SFC RDG AXIS
THAT IS FCST TO FOLLOW INTO THE WRN LKS FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING
SHRTWV. ALTHOUGH THE LES WL PERSIST THRU THE EVNG UNTIL THE PASSAGE
OF THE H85 THERMAL TROF ARND 06Z...SHIFTING WINDS THAT LIMIT BAND
RESIDENCE TIME THRU THE EVNG WL ALSO LIMIT ADDITIONAL SN ACCUMS.
EVEN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SFC RDG AXIS TOWARD 12Z TO THE N OF HI
PRES CENTER BLDG INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...CLRG OF THE LO CLDS
MAY BE LIMITED OR AT LEAST SLOWED AS QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD LINGERS
UPSTREAM IN THE NRN PLAINS UNDER THE RDG AXIS THERE. LINGERING LO
CLDS AND STEADY BACKING WINDS WELL N OF THE SFC HI CENTER SHOULD
LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL...ESPECIALLY IF THE LO CLDS ARE QUITE
PERSISTENT. TENDED TO BUMP UP FCST MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.
WED...SHRTWV NOW RIDING THE ROCKIES RDG IS FCST TO DIG SE INTO NE MN
BY LATE IN THE DAY...WITH ACCOMPANYING DEEP SFC LO MOVING NEAR
THUNDER BAY BY LATE IN THE DAY. AS THE PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE SFC LO
PRES AND DEPARTING SFC HI PRES RDG TIGHTENS...SW H925 WINDS ARE FCST
TO INCRS UP TO 35-40KTS. ALTHOUGH HI STABILITY RELATED TO THE WAA
THAT IS FCST TO BOOST H85 TEMPS UP TO -5C BY 18Z WL LIMIT THE MIXING
OF THIS HIER MOMENTUM TO THE SFC...STILL EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO AT
LEAST REACH 30-35 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK
SUP. ALL THE NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW AREA OF SN IN COMMA TAIL OF THE
SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE CWA W-E IN THE AFTN. SINCE THE COMMA
TAIL/AXIS OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WL BE MOVING STEADILY...MSTR
INFLOW INTO THIS DISTURBANCE WL BE LIMITED PER NAM FCST H85
DEWPTS/H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY...AND SN/WATER RATIOS ARE FCST TO BE
POOR WITH A RATHER HI/THEN DGZ CENTERED ARND 13K FT AGL...EXPECT SN
ACCUMS TO BE AN INCH OR TWO AT THE MOST. CARRIED THE HIER POPS/SN
TOTALS OVER THE NRN CWA CLOSER TO THE SHRTWV TRACK.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED JAN 27 2016
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z THU THAT
THEN MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z SAT. A SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES ALONG
THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER FRI NIGHT ALONG THE ND/MN BORDER. NAM
BRINGS IN SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE INTO THE
AREA FRI NIGHT. LAKE EFFECT WINDS DOWN ON THU AND THU NIGHT AND HAVE
LIKELY POPS ON THU FOR LAKE SUPERIOR NORTH SNOW BELTS. NEXT SYSTEM
ARRIVES ON FRI AND HAVE LIKELY POPS FRI AFTERNOON AND FRI NIGHT AS
THIS MOVES THROUGH AND COULD SEE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS
SYSTEM. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES. DID LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT THU NIGHT AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND COULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE WI BORDER WHICH WOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
QUICKLY DROP.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES 12Z SAT. MORE TROUGHING MOVES IN FOR 12Z SUN AND A SFC
FRONT AND COLDER AIR MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MON. A CLOSED 500 MB LOW
AND TROUGH MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z TUE WHICH THEN HEADS TO
THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF ABOVE
NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND THEN COOL EACH DAY A COUPLE DEGREES TO END
THE EXTENDED IN THE NEAR NORMAL RANGE. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUN
WITH A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND THEN LAKE EFFECT SUN NIGHT
INTO MON WITH CHANCE POPS RETURNING TUE WITH OVERRUNNING SITUATION
WITH SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT KIWD/KSAW UNDER GRADUALLY
BACKING WINDS. WITH A LINGERING OVERWATER TRAJECTORY...KCMX SHOULD
SEE MVFR CIGS AND OCNL -SHSN. HOWEVER...SOME PERIODS OF VFR ARE
EXPECTED...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING DURING THE EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME PREDOMINANT AT KCMX BEFORE DAYBREAK AS
WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN AS
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES RIDGE AND A LOW PRES
MOVING INTO NRN ONTARIO. THAT LOW WILL ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF -SN
AND IFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD/KCMX IN THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTN AND
AT KSAW THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EST WED JAN 27 2016
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXITS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY...A LOW WILL NEAR FROM S CENTRAL CANADA. THE RESULT FOR LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL BE INCREASING SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN ISLE
ROYALE AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. GALES TO 35KTS WILL QUICKLY MOVE
TO E LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE ENDING LATE THIS
EVENING. EXPECT THE LOW TO MOVE W-E ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT...AND MOVE OVER FAR SE ONTARIO/S QUEBEC THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...
MAINLY OVER N CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR AS N-NW WINDS TAKE HOLD.
MEANWHILE...A RIDGE LOOKS TO QUICKLY SLIDE ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SWING ACROSS ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY.
AS THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITS ACROSS JAMES BAY ON
SUNDAY...A TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LSZ266-267.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
/9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
324 AM EST WED JAN 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR TROF
EXTENDING FM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF UPR RDG
OVER THE ROCKIES. SHRTWV/SFC LO PRES RESPONSIBLE FOR WDSPRD SN THAT
IMPACTED THE CWA LAST NGT INTO THIS MRNG IS EXITING TO THE NE THRU
SE CANADA...BUT ANOTHER SHRTWV DIGGING SE THRU THE UPR
MIDWEST/ACCOMPANYING DPVA AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/DEEP MSTR SHOWN
ON THE 12Z GRB RAOB AS WELL AS LINGERING CYC NNW FLOW OF COLDER AIR
DROPPING H85 TEMPS TOWARD -14C IS MAINTAINING SOME SN MAINLY NEAR LK
SUP. 12Z INL RAOB SHOWS MID LVL DRYING LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SHRTWV...AND BACK EDGE OF COLDER CLD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS DRYING IS PUSHING SEWD THRU THE CWA THIS AFTN.
SN INTENSITIES DIMINISHED QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THIS
DRYING. LOOKING UPSTREAM... THERE IS A SHRTWV OVER WRN CANADA RIDING
OVER THE ROCKIES RDG.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU WED WL BE ON POPS INTO THIS EVNG AND THEN ON
WINDS/POTENTIAL FOR SOME SN ON WED AFTN IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF SHRTWV NOW TOPPING THE ROCKIES RDG.
TNGT...EXPECT SN SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR LK SUP THIS EVNG IN LINGERING
CYC FLOW TO DIMINISH TNGT WITH ARRIVAL OF DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR
DVGC/MORE ACYC LLVL FLOW/WARMING H85 TEMPS ACCOMPANYING SFC RDG AXIS
THAT IS FCST TO FOLLOW INTO THE WRN LKS FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING
SHRTWV. ALTHOUGH THE LES WL PERSIST THRU THE EVNG UNTIL THE PASSAGE
OF THE H85 THERMAL TROF ARND 06Z...SHIFTING WINDS THAT LIMIT BAND
RESIDENCE TIME THRU THE EVNG WL ALSO LIMIT ADDITIONAL SN ACCUMS.
EVEN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SFC RDG AXIS TOWARD 12Z TO THE N OF HI
PRES CENTER BLDG INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...CLRG OF THE LO CLDS
MAY BE LIMITED OR AT LEAST SLOWED AS QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD LINGERS
UPSTREAM IN THE NRN PLAINS UNDER THE RDG AXIS THERE. LINGERING LO
CLDS AND STEADY BACKING WINDS WELL N OF THE SFC HI CENTER SHOULD
LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL...ESPECIALLY IF THE LO CLDS ARE QUITE
PERSISTENT. TENDED TO BUMP UP FCST MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.
WED...SHRTWV NOW RIDING THE ROCKIES RDG IS FCST TO DIG SE INTO NE MN
BY LATE IN THE DAY...WITH ACCOMPANYING DEEP SFC LO MOVING NEAR
THUNDER BAY BY LATE IN THE DAY. AS THE PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE SFC LO
PRES AND DEPARTING SFC HI PRES RDG TIGHTENS...SW H925 WINDS ARE FCST
TO INCRS UP TO 35-40KTS. ALTHOUGH HI STABILITY RELATED TO THE WAA
THAT IS FCST TO BOOST H85 TEMPS UP TO -5C BY 18Z WL LIMIT THE MIXING
OF THIS HIER MOMENTUM TO THE SFC...STILL EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO AT
LEAST REACH 30-35 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK
SUP. ALL THE NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW AREA OF SN IN COMMA TAIL OF THE
SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE CWA W-E IN THE AFTN. SINCE THE COMMA
TAIL/AXIS OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WL BE MOVING STEADILY...MSTR
INFLOW INTO THIS DISTURBANCE WL BE LIMITED PER NAM FCST H85
DEWPTS/H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY...AND SN/WATER RATIOS ARE FCST TO BE
POOR WITH A RATHER HI/THEN DGZ CENTERED ARND 13K FT AGL...EXPECT SN
ACCUMS TO BE AN INCH OR TWO AT THE MOST. CARRIED THE HIER POPS/SN
TOTALS OVER THE NRN CWA CLOSER TO THE SHRTWV TRACK.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
GENERALLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH INTERMITTENT CHANCES
OF SNOW WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED 500MB SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEAST MN/ WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE U.P. TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE GENERALLY KEEPING THE BETTER
FORCING/HEAVIER PRECIPITATION JUST NORTH OF THE CWA MAINLY OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ONTARIO. THE SYSTEM SNOW WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK AND
GENERALLY LIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF PROGGED TO BE AROUND 0.15
INCHES. SNOWFALL RATIOS SHOULD NOT BE THAT IMPRESSIVE EITHER AS THE
MOIST LAYER IN THE DGZ IS ELEVATED BETWEEN ABOUT 700MB AND 6000MB
WITH FAIRLY GUSTY WINDS BELOW THAT LAYER...EFFECTIVELY HELPING TO
SHEAR THE LARGER DENDRITES APART. THIS WOULD LIKELY GIVE SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS SOMEWHERE AROUND 12 TO 15 ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...KEEPING THE SYSTEM SNOW TOTALS BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND THE CHANNELING EFFECT BETWEEN THE KEWEENAW...ISLE ROYALE AND THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN WILL INCREASE THE GALE POTENTIAL IN THOSE AREAS.
GUSTS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY REACH BETWEEN 35 AND
40KNOTS. EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KNOTS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW ALONG
THE SHORELINES AS WELL. THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT THURSDAY
AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD...THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST AND
850MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO THE -12 TO -15C RANGE. THE BIGGEST IMPACT
WOULD BE FOR NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS THURSDAY MORNING AND
THEN NORTH WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD GIVE
THOSE AREAS AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW. AS THE WINDS BECOME
NORTHERLY THERE COULD BE YET ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALES OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND 35 KNOTS.
THE LOW AND TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST THURSDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING A BIT DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN AND THE INVERSION HEIGHT TO
BECOME VERY SHALLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW THE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
BECOME MUCH LIGHTER ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE UPPER PENINSULA FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING DRIER
AIR...LIGHT WINDS AND A VERY BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE NAM/GFS/GEM ARE ALL
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PLACEMENT OF BOTH THE SURFACE FEATURES
AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THE MAIN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT IS THE LAST
FEW RUNS OF THE EC...WHICH HAS EVEN HAD RUN TO RUN ISSUES. LEANING
MORE TOWARD THE GFS...MOISTURE WOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE U.P. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASING ON WAA INTO THE REGION.
THIS WOULD ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY
EVENING...THE GFS/GEM HAVE A DRY SLOT SLIDING ACROSS THE U.P. WHICH
MAY CHANGE THE LIGHT SNOW OVER TO LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE...HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD BE VERY BRIEF AS THE CORE OF THE
SYSTEM SLIDES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND TO SOUTHWEST
QUEBEC BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP SNOW IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. SIMILAR TO THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
SYSTEM...SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 12 TO 15 RANGE
DUE TO THE ELEVATED DGZ ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
COLUMN. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS SHOW AROUND 0.15 TO 0.25 INCHES OF
LIQUID QPF PAINTED OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE U.P. WITH MOST OF THAT
OCCURRING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS ALONG WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WOULD GIVE MOST OF THE AREA
BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF SNOW. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WOULD NOT BE
FAVORABLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS 850MB ARE PROGGED TO BE A BIT
TOO WARM.
THE REMAINING EXTENDED...THE PATTERN ONCE AGAIN BECOMES VERY MESSY
FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF SNOW
WILL DOMINATE THIS TIME PERIOD. THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING AND
INTENSITY DIFFERENCES BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. CONFIDENCE IN
ANY SINGLE MODEL SOLUTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS
POINT...THEREFORE WILL STICK WITH A CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS TO AT
LEAST SHOW THE INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF SNOW FOR THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT KIWD/KSAW UNDER GRADUALLY
BACKING WINDS. WITH A LINGERING OVERWATER TRAJECTORY...KCMX SHOULD
SEE MVFR CIGS AND OCNL -SHSN. HOWEVER...SOME PERIODS OF VFR ARE
EXPECTED...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING DURING THE EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME PREDOMINANT AT KCMX BEFORE DAYBREAK AS
WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN AS
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES RIDGE AND A LOW PRES
MOVING INTO NRN ONTARIO. THAT LOW WILL ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF -SN
AND IFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD/KCMX IN THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTN AND
AT KSAW THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EST WED JAN 27 2016
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXITS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY...A LOW WILL NEAR FROM S CENTRAL CANADA. THE RESULT FOR LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL BE INCREASING SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN ISLE
ROYALE AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. GALES TO 35KTS WILL QUICKLY MOVE
TO E LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE ENDING LATE THIS
EVENING. EXPECT THE LOW TO MOVE W-E ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT...AND MOVE OVER FAR SE ONTARIO/S QUEBEC THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...
MAINLY OVER N CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR AS N-NW WINDS TAKE HOLD.
MEANWHILE...A RIDGE LOOKS TO QUICKLY SLIDE ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SWING ACROSS ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY.
AS THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITS ACROSS JAMES BAY ON
SUNDAY...A TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LSZ266-267.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
/9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1150 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR TROF
EXTENDING FM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF UPR RDG
OVER THE ROCKIES. SHRTWV/SFC LO PRES RESPONSIBLE FOR WDSPRD SN THAT
IMPACTED THE CWA LAST NGT INTO THIS MRNG IS EXITING TO THE NE THRU
SE CANADA...BUT ANOTHER SHRTWV DIGGING SE THRU THE UPR
MIDWEST/ACCOMPANYING DPVA AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/DEEP MSTR SHOWN
ON THE 12Z GRB RAOB AS WELL AS LINGERING CYC NNW FLOW OF COLDER AIR
DROPPING H85 TEMPS TOWARD -14C IS MAINTAINING SOME SN MAINLY NEAR LK
SUP. 12Z INL RAOB SHOWS MID LVL DRYING LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SHRTWV...AND BACK EDGE OF COLDER CLD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS DRYING IS PUSHING SEWD THRU THE CWA THIS AFTN.
SN INTENSITIES DIMINISHED QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THIS
DRYING. LOOKING UPSTREAM... THERE IS A SHRTWV OVER WRN CANADA RIDING
OVER THE ROCKIES RDG.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU WED WL BE ON POPS INTO THIS EVNG AND THEN ON
WINDS/POTENTIAL FOR SOME SN ON WED AFTN IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF SHRTWV NOW TOPPING THE ROCKIES RDG.
TNGT...EXPECT SN SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR LK SUP THIS EVNG IN LINGERING
CYC FLOW TO DIMINISH TNGT WITH ARRIVAL OF DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR
DVGC/MORE ACYC LLVL FLOW/WARMING H85 TEMPS ACCOMPANYING SFC RDG AXIS
THAT IS FCST TO FOLLOW INTO THE WRN LKS FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING
SHRTWV. ALTHOUGH THE LES WL PERSIST THRU THE EVNG UNTIL THE PASSAGE
OF THE H85 THERMAL TROF ARND 06Z...SHIFTING WINDS THAT LIMIT BAND
RESIDENCE TIME THRU THE EVNG WL ALSO LIMIT ADDITIONAL SN ACCUMS.
EVEN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SFC RDG AXIS TOWARD 12Z TO THE N OF HI
PRES CENTER BLDG INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...CLRG OF THE LO CLDS
MAY BE LIMITED OR AT LEAST SLOWED AS QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD LINGERS
UPSTREAM IN THE NRN PLAINS UNDER THE RDG AXIS THERE. LINGERING LO
CLDS AND STEADY BACKING WINDS WELL N OF THE SFC HI CENTER SHOULD
LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL...ESPECIALLY IF THE LO CLDS ARE QUITE
PERSISTENT. TENDED TO BUMP UP FCST MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.
WED...SHRTWV NOW RIDING THE ROCKIES RDG IS FCST TO DIG SE INTO NE MN
BY LATE IN THE DAY...WITH ACCOMPANYING DEEP SFC LO MOVING NEAR
THUNDER BAY BY LATE IN THE DAY. AS THE PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE SFC LO
PRES AND DEPARTING SFC HI PRES RDG TIGHTENS...SW H925 WINDS ARE FCST
TO INCRS UP TO 35-40KTS. ALTHOUGH HI STABILITY RELATED TO THE WAA
THAT IS FCST TO BOOST H85 TEMPS UP TO -5C BY 18Z WL LIMIT THE MIXING
OF THIS HIER MOMENTUM TO THE SFC...STILL EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO AT
LEAST REACH 30-35 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK
SUP. ALL THE NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW AREA OF SN IN COMMA TAIL OF THE
SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE CWA W-E IN THE AFTN. SINCE THE COMMA
TAIL/AXIS OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WL BE MOVING STEADILY...MSTR
INFLOW INTO THIS DISTURBANCE WL BE LIMITED PER NAM FCST H85
DEWPTS/H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY...AND SN/WATER RATIOS ARE FCST TO BE
POOR WITH A RATHER HI/THEN DGZ CENTERED ARND 13K FT AGL...EXPECT SN
ACCUMS TO BE AN INCH OR TWO AT THE MOST. CARRIED THE HIER POPS/SN
TOTALS OVER THE NRN CWA CLOSER TO THE SHRTWV TRACK.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
GENERALLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH INTERMITTENT CHANCES
OF SNOW WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED 500MB SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEAST MN/ WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE U.P. TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE GENERALLY KEEPING THE BETTER
FORCING/HEAVIER PRECIPITATION JUST NORTH OF THE CWA MAINLY OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ONTARIO. THE SYSTEM SNOW WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK AND
GENERALLY LIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF PROGGED TO BE AROUND 0.15
INCHES. SNOWFALL RATIOS SHOULD NOT BE THAT IMPRESSIVE EITHER AS THE
MOIST LAYER IN THE DGZ IS ELEVATED BETWEEN ABOUT 700MB AND 6000MB
WITH FAIRLY GUSTY WINDS BELOW THAT LAYER...EFFECTIVELY HELPING TO
SHEAR THE LARGER DENDRITES APART. THIS WOULD LIKELY GIVE SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS SOMEWHERE AROUND 12 TO 15 ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...KEEPING THE SYSTEM SNOW TOTALS BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND THE CHANNELING EFFECT BETWEEN THE KEWEENAW...ISLE ROYALE AND THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN WILL INCREASE THE GALE POTENTIAL IN THOSE AREAS.
GUSTS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY REACH BETWEEN 35 AND
40KNOTS. EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KNOTS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW ALONG
THE SHORELINES AS WELL. THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT THURSDAY
AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD...THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST AND
850MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO THE -12 TO -15C RANGE. THE BIGGEST IMPACT
WOULD BE FOR NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS THURSDAY MORNING AND
THEN NORTH WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD GIVE
THOSE AREAS AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW. AS THE WINDS BECOME
NORTHERLY THERE COULD BE YET ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALES OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND 35 KNOTS.
THE LOW AND TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST THURSDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING A BIT DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN AND THE INVERSION HEIGHT TO
BECOME VERY SHALLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW THE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
BECOME MUCH LIGHTER ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE UPPER PENINSULA FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING DRIER
AIR...LIGHT WINDS AND A VERY BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE NAM/GFS/GEM ARE ALL
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PLACEMENT OF BOTH THE SURFACE FEATURES
AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THE MAIN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT IS THE LAST
FEW RUNS OF THE EC...WHICH HAS EVEN HAD RUN TO RUN ISSUES. LEANING
MORE TOWARD THE GFS...MOISTURE WOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE U.P. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASING ON WAA INTO THE REGION.
THIS WOULD ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY
EVENING...THE GFS/GEM HAVE A DRY SLOT SLIDING ACROSS THE U.P. WHICH
MAY CHANGE THE LIGHT SNOW OVER TO LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE...HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD BE VERY BRIEF AS THE CORE OF THE
SYSTEM SLIDES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND TO SOUTHWEST
QUEBEC BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP SNOW IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. SIMILAR TO THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
SYSTEM...SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 12 TO 15 RANGE
DUE TO THE ELEVATED DGZ ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
COLUMN. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS SHOW AROUND 0.15 TO 0.25 INCHES OF
LIQUID QPF PAINTED OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE U.P. WITH MOST OF THAT
OCCURRING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS ALONG WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WOULD GIVE MOST OF THE AREA
BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF SNOW. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WOULD NOT BE
FAVORABLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS 850MB ARE PROGGED TO BE A BIT
TOO WARM.
THE REMAINING EXTENDED...THE PATTERN ONCE AGAIN BECOMES VERY MESSY
FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF SNOW
WILL DOMINATE THIS TIME PERIOD. THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING AND
INTENSITY DIFFERENCES BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. CONFIDENCE IN
ANY SINGLE MODEL SOLUTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS
POINT...THEREFORE WILL STICK WITH A CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS TO AT
LEAST SHOW THE INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF SNOW FOR THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT KIWD/KSAW UNDER GRADUALLY
BACKING WINDS. WITH A LINGERING OVERWATER TRAJECTORY...KCMX SHOULD
SEE MVFR CIGS AND OCNL -SHSN. HOWEVER...SOME PERIODS OF VFR ARE
EXPECTED...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING DURING THE EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME PREDOMINANT AT KCMX BEFORE DAYBREAK AS
WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN AS
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES RIDGE AND A LOW PRES
MOVING INTO NRN ONTARIO. THAT LOW WILL ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF -SN
AND IFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD/KCMX IN THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTN AND
AT KSAW THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON AS A
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY NORTH WINDS
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS EVENING AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS. THE
NEXT PERIOD FOR STRONGER WINDS WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SW GALES TO 35 KNOTS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS STAY NEAR 30 KNOTS INTO THU AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
SLIDES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FROM CANADA...BRINGING
GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 30 KNOTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. A
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING WINDS LESS THAN 25 KNOTS FOR
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR LESS THAN 25 KNOTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ266-
267.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ TO 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/
WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ162-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
359 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE
CENTER POSITIONED ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...TRACKING INTO
THE MN ARROWHEAD. SPOTTERS ACROSS THE IN IRON RANGE HAVE REPORTED
ABOUT AN HOUR OF A WINTRY OF SNOW/FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET THIS
AFTERNOON...FOUND JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW. HAVE INTRODUCED
FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE ARROWHEAD ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
FURTHER SOUTH...LATEST SPC RUC 925MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG PUSH
OF WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE WEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON TO RAPIDLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 30 TO AROUND 40 ACROSS
THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION. THE WARM SLOT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH OUR DAYTIMES
HIGHS LIKELY TO BE MET AFTER SUNSET AS TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BEGIN
TO FALL UNTIL THE LOW MAKES IT WAY FAR ENOUGH EAST THE COLD AIR
CAN DROP INTO THE REGION.
CONTINUE TO CARRY SMALL POPS/FLURRIES ON THURSDAY AS THE CYCLONIC
FLOW COMBINED WITH 500MB TEMPS APPROACHING -30C LINGER OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
THURSDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHLAND
THURSDAY EVENING. THE VERY LIGHT WINDS AND PARTIAL CLEAR SKIES COULD
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES DROP WELL DURING THE EVENING...DESPITE
WARMING TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE NIGHT WHEN SSE WINDS DEVELOP AND
HIGH CLOUD COVER MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. LOWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO NEAR THE GUNFLINT TRAIL...TO
AROUND 20 DEGREES NEAR THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...BRINGING WARMER AIR INTO
THE REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING 850 HPA TEMPERATURES OF UP TO
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SW FORECAST AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO THE LOWER 30S. IT COULD BE
HIGHER...IF IT WERE NOT FOR THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND THEN PCPN
THAT WILL COME FROM A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING ESE ACROSS
CENTRAL MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE RELATED PCPN...EXCEPT THE ECMWF IS A BIT
WETTER...FASTER...AND MORE SOUTH THAN THE GFS/CANADIAN/NAM. WHILE
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FORECAST AREA SHOULD PRIMARILY GET
SNOW...THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MIXED PCPN ACROSS THE SW AND
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...POSSIBLY SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. THIS
THREAT WILL NEED TO BE EXAMINED MORE CLOSELY OVER COMING SHIFTS.
SNOW COULD LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SHORTWAVE MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FORECAST
AREA WILL LIKELY GET A TOTAL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD. THE GUNFLINT TRAIN...NE BOUNDARY
WATERS...AND FAR NORTH SHORE COULD GET AROUND 4 TO 5 INCHES.
SATURDAY...MORE ZONAL FLOW AND SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING
SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE AND
DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR
SE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COLDER SUNDAY BECAUSE
OF THE COLDER AIR THAT WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE
NORTHLAND WILL BE AFFECTED BY A STORM SYSTEM DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...PRIMARILY THE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THE
THE GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF ARE CONTINUING TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL FORM A STACKED LOW NEAR THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE ON MONDAY...AND LIFT THROUGH THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF TAKE THE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS
AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT...SPREADING CONSIDERING PCPN
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FORECAST AREA. IT APPEARS PLENTY COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOWFALL DUE TO THE WRAP AROUND COLD AIR COMING DOWN FROM
CANADA. OUR OFFICE WILL NEED TO INCREASE OUR ATTENTION ON THIS
POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM SE MANITOBA...AS OF
LATE THIS MORNING...THROUGH NW ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE LEADING BAND OF SNOW QUICKLY MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS
MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KHYR THROUGH AROUND NOON
WITH A PERIOD OF LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
THIS CLIPPER WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS...FIRST SSW EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN SWITCHING TO THE WEST AND THEN NNW WITH THE
PASSING TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER. THERE WILL BE
ADDITIONAL SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY FOR KINL AND
KHIB ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. EXPECT PRIMARILY MVFR...BUT MORE
SO IFR/MVFR ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
THE WINDS COULD BE PARTICULARLY GUSTY...20 TO 30 KNOTS...THIS
EVENING. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO FORECAST GUSTS THAT HIGH SINCE IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW WELL THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES. THE AIR COMING
DOWN IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH BOUNDARY IS NOT ALL THAT COLD...SO
DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH MIXING. IF THERE IS NOT MUCH
MIXING...MAY NEED TO ADD LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING BECAUSE OF THE STRONG FLOW THAT WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT...ABOUT 40 TO 50 KNOTS AROUND 2 KFT.
THE MVFR CEILINGS COULD LINGER WELL INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN SOME SCATTERING FOR KDLH BY THE LATE MORNING
TO RETURN KDLH TO VFR IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 25 27 12 30 / 40 10 0 60
INL 21 22 10 33 / 50 40 30 80
BRD 27 29 19 34 / 20 10 10 40
HYR 26 27 13 32 / 40 30 0 40
ASX 26 27 12 31 / 60 60 10 50
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM/AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1131 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
FIRST ISSUE THIS MORNING IS A FOG BANK THAT DEVELOPED OVER SW MN
EARLIER TONIGHT WITHIN A LITTLE BUBBLE RIDGE AXIS AND CLEAR SKIES.
ABOUT A 50 MILE WIDE BANK OF FOG DEVELOPED...WHICH HAS BEEN SLOWLY
PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE. LOOKING AT
RWIS AND AIRPORT SENSORS...VISIBILITY IN THIS BANK OF FOG IS DOWN
BETWEEN 1/8TH AND 1/2 MILE. THE HRRR HAS ACTUALLY PICKED UP ON THIS
FOG BANK AND ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION...THOUGH IS A BIT FAST. THE
BIG ISSUE THOUGH IS THE FOG BANK LOOKS TO MAKE IT INTO THE TWIN
CITIES DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE AND WILL CAUSE HUGE HEADACHES AT
MSP IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT HAS ALL NIGHT. BASED ON THE HRRR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS...WAS DETERMINED THAT IT WOULD BE BEST TO BRING IT
INTO MSP...WITH 12Z TO 14Z BEING THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEEING IT.
AFTER THAT...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE POTENT UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN. HI-RES GUIDANCE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH THE COMBINATION OF WARM FRONTAL FORCING
AND STRONG PV-ADVECTION RESULTING IN A NARROW BAND OF PRECIP MOVING
THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE CAMS TO BRING THIS
NARROW BAND OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. ONE
CONCERN THOUGH WITH GETTING PRECIP IS THE VERY DRY LAYER OF AIR ON
THE KMPX SOUNDING LAST NIGHT BETWEEN 800 AND 500 HPA. FORCING COMING
IN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND MAY NOT HANG AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO
MOISTEN THIS LAYER ENOUGH TO ALLOW PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG CAM AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL AGREEMENT IN
SOME LIGHT PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND...DECIDED TO BRING A BAND OF
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE AREA. FOR P-TYPE...WE WILL SEE A
VERY WARM LAYER OF AIR COMING IN AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT
ALOFT...WITH A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LIKELY FOR ANY PRECIP
THAT FALLS SOUTHWEST OF AN ALEXANDRIA...SW TWIN CITIES METRO...
ROCHESTER LINE. BESIDE THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING THIS
MIXED PRECIP...P-TYPE OUTPUTS FROM THE CAMS SHOW A SIMILAR SCENARIO.
FORTUNATELY...WHATEVER FALLS...IT DOES NOT LOOK TO LAST MUCH MORE
THAN AN HOUR OR TWO...SO WILL SEE MINIMAL IMPACTS. THE ONLY AREA
THAT WILL SEE PRECIP CHANCES A BIT LONG ARE FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF
A RUSH CITY/EAU CLAIRE LINE. THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE MAIN
ISENTROPIC LIFT GOING ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD AND NRN WI...SO THEY
WILL GET ON THAT ALONG WITH THE PV FORCING. HERE...WE ARE STILL
CALLING FOR 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW.
WITH THE WARM AIR COMING IN TODAY...WE WILL SEE A NICE WARMING IN
TEMPERATURES...WITH MID/UPPER 30S STILL LOOKING LIKELY IN MN /WITH
A 40 NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN WEST CENTRAL MN/ WITH MORE
LOWER/MID 30S IN WRN WI...WHERE 925-850 TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER. TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE MILD AS WELL...AS COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW WILL BE MORE OF A BACK DOOR FRONT COMING
DOWN FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL KEEP US IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND
WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER FOR ERN MN/WRN WI EXPECTED...WE WILL
LIKELY SEE MANY AREAS THERE STAY IN THE 30S OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
A RATHER ACTIVE LONG TERM AHEAD WITH AT LEAST THREE DIFFERENT
WEATHER SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDINESS. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHING NW TO SE ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER AREA. THIS IS
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON EASTWARD AS THE
BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY EAST. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED AT THIS
POINT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE BY THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MN ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING
AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL BELOW
FREEZING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY
MORNING FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON WESTWARD WITH SOME SNOW AND SLEET
POSSIBLE IN WESTERN WI. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DUE TO THE MOISTURE PROFILE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS REMAINING
IN PLACE. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM THE TWIN CITIES
ON WEST WHILE A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE TO THE EAST.
A CHANCE OF SNOW IS IN STORE FOR THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS A MID LEVEL WAVE AND FRONTOGENETIC
ZONE MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. IF THE CONTINUITY
WITH THESE FEATURES CONTINUE...THEN THE POPS IN THE FORECAST ARE
WAY TOO LOW AND SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW MAY OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. FORTUNATELY...HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE
RATHER MILD AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. THE SNOW COULD MIX
WITH SOME RAIN AT TIMES AND TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.
MONDAY IS THE ONLY DAY IN THE LONG TERM WITH LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE BRIEF DRY PERIOD
WILL GIVE WAY TO A LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM FROM TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. GOOD CONTINUITY CONTINUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON
THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY. THE TRACK WOULD CERTAINLY BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
SNOW (6 INCHES OR MORE) TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN MN...THE TWIN CITIES
AND WESTERN WI. THIS IS CERTAINLY A SYSTEM TO KEEP AN EYE ON. THE
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IS REALLY STRONG ON THE LAST 5 RUNS OF THE
GFS FROM 204 HOURS TO 180 HOURS. EVEN THE ENSEMBLE DATA HAS A MEAN
TRACK VERY CLOSE TO THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS. HENCE...WITH THE
CONFIDENCE PRETTY HIGH ON SNOW OCCURRING...WE RAISED POPS INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY OVER SOUTHERN MN FOR TUESDAY AND ACROSS THE TWIN
CITIES AND WESTERN WI TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE TRACE
AMTS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KEAU WHICH MAY GET A HALF INCH OF
SNOW DURING THE AFTN. THIS WILL LOWER VSBYS IN THE IFR RANGE FOR
AN HR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS UPSTREAM ACROSS WC/NW MN WILL
MOVE SE ACROSS THE MPX CWA. STARTED WITH 2-2.5K...WITH CIGS
POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 1.5K. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH A
SW WIND...BECOMING W/NW DURING THE AFTN/EVENING BUT REMAINING
GUSTY. A PREDOMINATE NW WIND IS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO
20-25 KTS AT TIMES.
KMSP...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET/SNOW FOR AN HR OR
TWO. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP BY THE LATE AFTN
/2.5K/ AND CONTINUE THRU THE TAF PERIOD...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IF
WE RISE ABOVE 3.0K THURSDAY AFTN. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
THRU THE TAF PERIOD...BEGINNING FROM THE SSW...SW BY
20-21Z...WSW/W BY 23Z...WNW/NW AFT 00Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MVFR. CHC -FZRA/-IP EARLY AND -RA IN AFTN. S-SW WIND 10-15 KTS.
SAT...CHC MVFR. CHC IP/SN/RA LATE. WSW WIND 5-10 KT.
SUN...CHC MVFR. CHC SN/RA. NW 5 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
606 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
FIRST ISSUE THIS MORNING IS A FOG BANK THAT DEVELOPED OVER SW MN
EARLIER TONIGHT WITHIN A LITTLE BUBBLE RIDGE AXIS AND CLEAR SKIES.
ABOUT A 50 MILE WIDE BANK OF FOG DEVELOPED...WHICH HAS BEEN SLOWLY
PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE. LOOKING AT
RWIS AND AIRPORT SENSORS...VISIBILITY IN THIS BANK OF FOG IS DOWN
BETWEEN 1/8TH AND 1/2 MILE. THE HRRR HAS ACTUALLY PICKED UP ON THIS
FOG BANK AND ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION...THOUGH IS A BIT FAST. THE
BIG ISSUE THOUGH IS THE FOG BANK LOOKS TO MAKE IT INTO THE TWIN
CITIES DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE AND WILL CAUSE HUGE HEADACHES AT
MSP IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT HAS ALL NIGHT. BASED ON THE HRRR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS...WAS DETERMINED THAT IT WOULD BE BEST TO BRING IT
INTO MSP...WITH 12Z TO 14Z BEING THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEEING IT.
AFTER THAT...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE POTENT UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN. HI-RES GUIDANCE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH THE COMBINATION OF WARM FRONTAL FORCING
AND STRONG PV-ADVECTION RESULTING IN A NARROW BAND OF PRECIP MOVING
THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE CAMS TO BRING THIS
NARROW BAND OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. ONE
CONCERN THOUGH WITH GETTING PRECIP IS THE VERY DRY LAYER OF AIR ON
THE KMPX SOUNDING LAST NIGHT BETWEEN 800 AND 500 HPA. FORCING COMING
IN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND MAY NOT HANG AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO
MOISTEN THIS LAYER ENOUGH TO ALLOW PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG CAM AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL AGREEMENT IN
SOME LIGHT PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND...DECIDED TO BRING A BAND OF
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE AREA. FOR P-TYPE...WE WILL SEE A
VERY WARM LAYER OF AIR COMING IN AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT
ALOFT...WITH A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LIKELY FOR ANY PRECIP
THAT FALLS SOUTHWEST OF AN ALEXANDRIA...SW TWIN CITIES METRO...
ROCHESTER LINE. BESIDE THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING THIS
MIXED PRECIP...P-TYPE OUTPUTS FROM THE CAMS SHOW A SIMILAR SCENARIO.
FORTUNATELY...WHATEVER FALLS...IT DOES NOT LOOK TO LAST MUCH MORE
THAN AN HOUR OR TWO...SO WILL SEE MINIMAL IMPACTS. THE ONLY AREA
THAT WILL SEE PRECIP CHANCES A BIT LONG ARE FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF
A RUSH CITY/EAU CLAIRE LINE. THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE MAIN
ISENTROPIC LIFT GOING ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD AND NRN WI...SO THEY
WILL GET ON THAT ALONG WITH THE PV FORCING. HERE...WE ARE STILL
CALLING FOR 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW.
WITH THE WARM AIR COMING IN TODAY...WE WILL SEE A NICE WARMING IN
TEMPERATURES...WITH MID/UPPER 30S STILL LOOKING LIKELY IN MN /WITH
A 40 NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN WEST CENTRAL MN/ WITH MORE
LOWER/MID 30S IN WRN WI...WHERE 925-850 TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER. TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE MILD AS WELL...AS COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW WILL BE MORE OF A BACK DOOR FRONT COMING
DOWN FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL KEEP US IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND
WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER FOR ERN MN/WRN WI EXPECTED...WE WILL
LIKELY SEE MANY AREAS THERE STAY IN THE 30S OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
A RATHER ACTIVE LONG TERM AHEAD WITH AT LEAST THREE DIFFERENT
WEATHER SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDINESS. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHING NW TO SE ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER AREA. THIS IS
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON EASTWARD AS THE
BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY EAST. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED AT THIS
POINT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE BY THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MN ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING
AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL BELOW
FREEZING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY
MORNING FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON WESTWARD WITH SOME SNOW AND SLEET
POSSIBLE IN WESTERN WI. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DUE TO THE MOISTURE PROFILE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS REMAINING
IN PLACE. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM THE TWIN CITIES
ON WEST WHILE A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE TO THE EAST.
A CHANCE OF SNOW IS IN STORE FOR THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS A MID LEVEL WAVE AND FRONTOGENETIC
ZONE MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. IF THE CONTINUITY
WITH THESE FEATURES CONTINUE...THEN THE POPS IN THE FORECAST ARE
WAY TOO LOW AND SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW MAY OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. FORTUNATELY...HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE
RATHER MILD AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. THE SNOW COULD MIX
WITH SOME RAIN AT TIMES AND TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.
MONDAY IS THE ONLY DAY IN THE LONG TERM WITH LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE BRIEF DRY PERIOD
WILL GIVE WAY TO A LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM FROM TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. GOOD CONTINUITY CONTINUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON
THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY. THE TRACK WOULD CERTAINLY BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
SNOW (6 INCHES OR MORE) TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN MN...THE TWIN CITIES
AND WESTERN WI. THIS IS CERTAINLY A SYSTEM TO KEEP AN EYE ON. THE
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IS REALLY STRONG ON THE LAST 5 RUNS OF THE
GFS FROM 204 HOURS TO 180 HOURS. EVEN THE ENSEMBLE DATA HAS A MEAN
TRACK VERY CLOSE TO THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS. HENCE...WITH THE
CONFIDENCE PRETTY HIGH ON SNOW OCCURRING...WE RAISED POPS INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY OVER SOUTHERN MN FOR TUESDAY AND ACROSS THE TWIN
CITIES AND WESTERN WI TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 606 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
BANK OF DENSE FOG THAT HAS BEEN APPROACHING THE TWIN CITIES
METRO...BUT IS STARTING TO DISSIPATE. STILL WE HAVE SEEN A 200
FOOT CIG COME INTO FCM. WILL KEEP THE LOW CIG MENTION GOING FOR
MSP...BUT IT MAY NOT GET THERE...WILL BE CLOSE THOUGH. FOR BAND OF
PRECIP COMING AT US IN NODAK...WE HAVE YET TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF PRECIP REPORTS AND THE HOPWRF IS STARTING TO BACK AWAY FROM ITS
PRECIP DEPICTION ACROSS MN...SO HAVE STARTED TO PULL BACK WITH
PRECIP MENTION ACROSS MN TERMINALS AS WELL...LEAVING IN TEMPO
GROUPS AS WELL. DO EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO RETURN ALONG AND NORTHEAST
OF I-94 LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE IF THEY GET
INTO AXN/RWF AND CURRENT TAFS MAY BE A BIT PESSIMISTIC ON CIG
HEIGHTS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THOUGH CIG AND PRECIP MAY
HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE...DO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND
FORECAST...THOUGH DID HAVE TO DELAY SHIFT TO THE NW A FEW HOURS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS FROM WHAT WAS IN THE 6Z TAFS.
KMSP...MSP MAY LUCK OUT THIS MORNING AND HAVE WHATS LEFT OF LAST
NIGHTS BANK OF DENSE FOG FIZZLE OUT BETWEEN IT AND FCM. SNOW
POTENTIAL AROUND 18Z IS ALSO STARTING TO LOOK A LITTLE LESS LIKELY
AND WE MAY BE ABLE TO COMPLETELY REMOVE IT WITH THE 15Z AMD. CIG
FORECAST AFTER 20Z MAY BE A BIT PESSIMISTIC IN TERMS MVFR
LEVELS...THOUGH DO THINK WE EVENTUALLY END UP THERE BY THURSDAY
MORNING...THOUGH HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 017.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR EARLY. NW WIND 10 KTS.
FRI...MVFR. CHC -FZRA/-IP IN MRNG AND -RA IN AFTN. SW WIND 10-15
KTS.
SAT...CHC MVFR. SW WIND 5-10 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
403 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
FIRST ISSUE THIS MORNING IS A FOG BANK THAT DEVELOPED OVER SW MN
EARLIER TONIGHT WITHIN A LITTLE BUBBLE RIDGE AXIS AND CLEAR SKIES.
ABOUT A 50 MILE WIDE BANK OF FOG DEVELOPED...WHICH HAS BEEN SLOWLY
PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE. LOOKING AT
RWIS AND AIRPORT SENSORS...VISIBILITY IN THIS BANK OF FOG IS DOWN
BETWEEN 1/8TH AND 1/2 MILE. THE HRRR HAS ACTUALLY PICKED UP ON THIS
FOG BANK AND ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION...THOUGH IS A BIT FAST. THE
BIG ISSUE THOUGH IS THE FOG BANK LOOKS TO MAKE IT INTO THE TWIN
CITIES DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE AND WILL CAUSE HUGE HEADACHES AT
MSP IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT HAS ALL NIGHT. BASED ON THE HRRR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS...WAS DETERMINED THAT IT WOULD BE BEST TO BRING IT
INTO MSP...WITH 12Z TO 14Z BEING THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEEING IT.
AFTER THAT...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE POTENT UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN. HI-RES GUIDANCE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH THE COMBINATION OF WARM FRONTAL FORCING
AND STRONG PV-ADVECTION RESULTING IN A NARROW BAND OF PRECIP MOVING
THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE CAMS TO BRING THIS
NARROW BAND OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. ONE
CONCERN THOUGH WITH GETTING PRECIP IS THE VERY DRY LAYER OF AIR ON
THE KMPX SOUNDING LAST NIGHT BETWEEN 800 AND 500 HPA. FORCING COMING
IN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND MAY NOT HANG AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO
MOISTEN THIS LAYER ENOUGH TO ALLOW PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG CAM AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL AGREEMENT IN
SOME LIGHT PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND...DECIDED TO BRING A BAND OF
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE AREA. FOR P-TYPE...WE WILL SEE A
VERY WARM LAYER OF AIR COMING IN AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT
ALOFT...WITH A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LIKELY FOR ANY PRECIP
THAT FALLS SOUTHWEST OF AN ALEXANDRIA...SW TWIN CITIES METRO...
ROCHESTER LINE. BESIDE THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING THIS
MIXED PRECIP...P-TYPE OUTPUTS FROM THE CAMS SHOW A SIMILAR SCENARIO.
FORTUNATELY...WHATEVER FALLS...IT DOES NOT LOOK TO LAST MUCH MORE
THAN AN HOUR OR TWO...SO WILL SEE MINIMAL IMPACTS. THE ONLY AREA
THAT WILL SEE PRECIP CHANCES A BIT LONG ARE FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF
A RUSH CITY/EAU CLAIRE LINE. THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE MAIN
ISENTROPIC LIFT GOING ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD AND NRN WI...SO THEY
WILL GET ON THAT ALONG WITH THE PV FORCING. HERE...WE ARE STILL
CALLING FOR 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW.
WITH THE WARM AIR COMING IN TODAY...WE WILL SEE A NICE WARMING IN
TEMPERATURES...WITH MID/UPPER 30S STILL LOOKING LIKELY IN MN /WITH
A 40 NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN WEST CENTRAL MN/ WITH MORE
LOWER/MID 30S IN WRN WI...WHERE 925-850 TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER. TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE MILD AS WELL...AS COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW WILL BE MORE OF A BACK DOOR FRONT COMING
DOWN FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL KEEP US IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND
WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER FOR ERN MN/WRN WI EXPECTED...WE WILL
LIKELY SEE MANY AREAS THERE STAY IN THE 30S OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
A RATHER ACTIVE LONG TERM AHEAD WITH AT LEAST THREE DIFFERENT
WEATHER SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDINESS. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHING NW TO SE ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER AREA. THIS IS
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON EASTWARD AS THE
BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY EAST. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED AT THIS
POINT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE BY THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MN ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING
AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL BELOW
FREEZING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY
MORNING FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON WESTWARD WITH SOME SNOW AND SLEET
POSSIBLE IN WESTERN WI. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DUE TO THE MOISTURE PROFILE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS REMAINING
IN PLACE. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM THE TWIN CITIES
ON WEST WHILE A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE TO THE EAST.
A CHANCE OF SNOW IS IN STORE FOR THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS A MID LEVEL WAVE AND FRONTOGENETIC
ZONE MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. IF THE CONTINUITY
WITH THESE FEATURES CONTINUE...THEN THE POPS IN THE FORECAST ARE
WAY TOO LOW AND SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW MAY OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. FORTUNATELY...HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE
RATHER MILD AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. THE SNOW COULD MIX
WITH SOME RAIN AT TIMES AND TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.
MONDAY IS THE ONLY DAY IN THE LONG TERM WITH LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE BRIEF DRY PERIOD
WILL GIVE WAY TO A LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM FROM TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. GOOD CONTINUITY CONTINUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON
THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY. THE TRACK WOULD CERTAINLY BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
SNOW (6 INCHES OR MORE) TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN MN...THE TWIN CITIES
AND WESTERN WI. THIS IS CERTAINLY A SYSTEM TO KEEP AN EYE ON. THE
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IS REALLY STRONG ON THE LAST 5 RUNS OF THE
GFS FROM 204 HOURS TO 180 HOURS. EVEN THE ENSEMBLE DATA HAS A MEAN
TRACK VERY CLOSE TO THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS. HENCE...WITH THE
CONFIDENCE PRETTY HIGH ON SNOW OCCURRING...WE RAISED POPS INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY OVER SOUTHERN MN FOR TUESDAY AND ACROSS THE TWIN
CITIES AND WESTERN WI TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
LARGE HOLE IN THE CLOUD COVER HAS DEVELOPED TONIGHT. FOR THE MOST
PART THAT MEANS VFR IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. FOG HAS
DEVELOPED AT KRWF AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE BACK INTO KSTC SOON.
A QUICK HITTING BAND OF SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM
THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
KMSP...
DONT SEEN MUCH IN THE WAY OF AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE. ITS POSSIBLE THAT SOME 2500-3000FT CEILINGS ARE
HANGING AROUND KMSP AROUND 6AM...BUT THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH A BAND OF SNOW THAT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY NOW.
MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE OVER FOR THE TOMORROW EVENING RUSH.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. W WIND 10-15 KT.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR CEILINGS. SW WIND 5-10 KT.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR WITH -RA/-SN. SW WIND 5-10 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1149 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE NORTHLAND TOMORROW...WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST 12Z MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...OTHER THAN MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES...AND GENERALLY INCREASED PCPN AMOUNTS. INCREASED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH...AROUND 3 INCHES. HELD OFF ON A WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINE...BUT THE EVENING OR NIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO ISSUE ONE IF
THE SNOWFALL FORECAST TRENDS A BIT GREATER.
AT 330 PM...THE NORTHLAND HAD WNW TO NW FLOW AND BKN/OVC STRATUS.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 20S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST...WITH A POTENT
SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WAS OVER NW ONTARIO...SE MANITOBA...AND THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS.
THERE WILL BE LINGERING OVERCAST STRATUS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERING LATER TONIGHT WHEN
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL ALSO
BE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN IRON COUNTY...WHERE AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
HIGHER CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT...AND ITS POSSIBLE
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP PROP UP THE TEMPERATURES...AS
WELL AS THE SW FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A LITTLE ABOVE 10 DEGREES.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DIG ACROSS CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
AND MANITOBA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND NW ONTARIO DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS CLIPPER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT
SHORTWAVE WITH THE PASSING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BRING A QUICK BURST OF SNOW...BEGINNING IN THE NW DURING
THE MIDDLE MORNING...AND SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. THE SNOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTIER
WINDS...ABOUT 10 TO 20 MPH...SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF
VISIBILITY APPROACHING A HALF MILE OR LESS WHEN THE SNOW IS AT ITS
MOST INTENSE. WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
FORECAST...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...SUCH
AS OVER THE BOUNDARY WATERS. HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT THERE COULD
BE BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE WAKE OF
THE MAIN BAND OF SNOW...WHEN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS DRY AND THERE
REMAINS A RELATIVELY WARM LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER. THE NAM12
SOUNDINGS HAVE A SHORT PERIOD WHERE THE SATURATED LAYER COULD BE
DEEP ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT ENOUGH OF MOISTURE FOR DRIZZLE...BUT
THE GFS SOUNDINGS ARE NOT NEARLY AS DEEP. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN
ITS OCCURRENCE...SO LEFT FREEZING DRIZZLE OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE
NIGHT SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO LOOK MORE INTO DETAIL INTO THIS THREAT
WHEN THE HRRR AND RAP13 ARE WITHIN RANGE OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW
30S.
MORE SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MAINTAINING LOW CHANCES OF LINGERING SNOW AND FLURRIES.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER WILL NOT PASS THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY...SO OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND 5 TO 15 MPH WIND SPEEDS. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
DEPARTING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY MORNING. COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW SHOULD
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LES IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. RELATIVELY HIGH
WIND SPEEDS IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER SUGGESTS THE SNOW SHOWERS
WOULD PENETRATE WELL INLAND. AS A RESULT HAVE HELD ONTO HIGHER
POPS SOUTHEAST INTO SAWYER AND PRICE COUNTIES THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL DEPART FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH THE
EXITING LOW...SO THINK AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW ANOTHER INCH OR TWO AT
THE MOST.
THE NEXT QUICK HITTING SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THERE ARE PRETTY DISTINCT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC MEMBERS AND HAVE KEPT POPS
UNCHANGED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOISTURE SEEMS LIMITED AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...MAINLY WHATEVER BITS OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN IT CAN CARRY
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THINK SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH THE LARGER TOTALS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND OVER
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE ARROWHEAD.
BEHIND CLIPPER NUMBER TWO...GUIDANCE SEEMS SPLIT BETWEEN THE
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION OF A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND...AND THE GFS WHICH BRINGS ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EVEN WITH THE MORE ZONAL
BLEND...THINK THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIFT LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA TO SUPPORT LOW CHANCE POPS/CLOUDS.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS SEEM TO TREND TOWARD A
SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH THE HANDLING OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM TROF. QUASI-ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS/CONTINUES OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE TROF BEGINS TO DIG
INTO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
MVFR/VFR CLOUDS AT THE OUTSET OF THE FORECAST UNDER A SFC RIDGE.
THERE ARE SOME LARGE HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER. THIS IS SHORT LIVED
AS MORE MVFR CLOUDS ARE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN MN AND WILL AFFECT
THE TERMINALS FOR A TIME. HOWEVER...IN THE WAA AHEAD OF THE SFC
LOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA...THE MVFR CIGS WILL DIMINISH
LEAVING VFR. MODELS ARE ATTEMPTING TO BRING QUICKLY BACK MVFR
BEFORE THE LIGHT SNOW ARRIVES. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW FOR LLWS
FROM 08Z TO 15Z TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS. IT APPEARS THE LIGHT
SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM INL TO HYR FROM 13Z TO 17Z. GUSTY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE LIGHT SNOW WITH SOME BLSN POSSIBLE. THE GUSTY WINDS
AND LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER THROUGH THE FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 12 30 26 27 / 10 90 30 10
INL 12 31 23 26 / 0 90 50 10
BRD 12 33 28 30 / 0 60 10 10
HYR 11 31 28 31 / 10 80 40 20
ASX 14 32 27 30 / 0 80 40 50
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1121 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
THE ARCTIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NRN
SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING WILL DIVE TO THE MINNESOTA ARROW HEAD BY
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW SHOULD INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN NEB. THE FRONT
SHOULD REMAIN OVER OR NORTHEAST OF THE MISSOURI BASIN TONIGHT. THE
MODELS SHOW WARM AIR BACKFILLING ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES IN ALBERTA. THUS THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS WITH
THERMAL RIDGING ACROSS NEB THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE RAP INDICATES THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
THIS MORNING WILL DECAY AS THEY MOVE SOUTH AS A RESULT OF MID LEVEL
DIVERGENCE. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A PERIOD OF
DEEP VERTICAL MIXING SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS. THE ECS GUIDANCE SHOWS 51F FOR A HIGH AT VALENTINE. THE
FORECAST USES A BLEND OF THE WARMER MAV...EKD AND ECS GUIDANCE PLUS
BIAS CORRECTION FOR HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTN. SFC MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE
NRN ROCKIES INTO ERN MT WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THUS WARMER
TEMPERATURES...STRONG WINDS AND WET BULB TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S WILL ACCELERATE SNOW MELT.
850-700MB WINDS OF 25 TO 40 KT AND THERMAL RIDGING TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOWS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 DESPITE GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
VERY MILD CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH FOUR
DAYS /INCLUDING TODAY/ IN THE 50S ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. A BIT COOLER IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE MILD WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A PLUME OF WARM AIR ALOFT /H850 MB TEMPS OF
7C TO 12C/. FRIDAY LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE FOUR DAYS...AS A
WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WILL HELP MIX THE WARM
AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A LEAD SHORTWAVE...AHEAD OF MONDAY AND
TUESDAYS STORM SYSTEM...WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW. TEMPERATURES BORDER LINE
FOR SNOW...WITH H850MB TEMPERATURES BARELY BELOW FREEZING AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S SATURDAY NIGHT AND UPPER 30S AND
40S SUNDAY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. TONIGHTS
27/00Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM A BIT
SOUTH OF THE 26/12Z RUNS. FURTHER SHIFTING IS OF COURSE EXPECTED THE
NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
THE 27/00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS ALSO SHIFTED EVER SO SLIGHTLY SOUTH
OF THE 26/12Z MEAN. THE MEAN CENTERS A HEAVY QPF CENTER NEAR MCCOOK
OF 1.2 INCHES LIQUID. AT NORTH PLATTE THE MEAN IS AROUND 0.75 OF AN
INCH...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH. THE TREND IN THE MODELS
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR FURTHER SHIFTING IN
THE STORM TRACK. WITH THE SHIFT SOUTH IN TONIGHTS MODEL
RUNS...DECIDED TO LEAVE POPS AT 50 PERCENT OR LESS FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. DID NOT WANT TO INTRODUCE
LIKELY POPS AT THIS POINT IN CASE THE SOUTHWARD TREND AWAY FROM THE
AREA CONTINUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS WIND AS NORTHWEST GUSTS TO 20 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE. WIND SHOULD DECREASE TO UNDER 12 KTS SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED...WITH CEILINGS
AOA 8KFT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...SNIVELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
513 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
THE ARCTIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NRN
SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING WILL DIVE TO THE MINNESOTA ARROW HEAD BY
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW SHOULD INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN NEB. THE FRONT
SHOULD REMAIN OVER OR NORTHEAST OF THE MISSOURI BASIN TONIGHT. THE
MODELS SHOW WARM AIR BACKFILLING ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES IN ALBERTA. THUS THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS WITH
THERMAL RIDGING ACROSS NEB THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE RAP INDICATES THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
THIS MORNING WILL DECAY AS THEY MOVE SOUTH AS A RESULT OF MID LEVEL
DIVERGENCE. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A PERIOD OF
DEEP VERTICAL MIXING SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS. THE ECS GUIDANCE SHOWS 51F FOR A HIGH AT VALENTINE. THE
FORECAST USES A BLEND OF THE WARMER MAV...EKD AND ECS GUIDANCE PLUS
BIAS CORRECTION FOR HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTN. SFC MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE
NRN ROCKIES INTO ERN MT WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THUS WARMER
TEMPERATURES...STRONG WINDS AND WET BULB TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S WILL ACCELERATE SNOW MELT.
850-700MB WINDS OF 25 TO 40 KT AND THERMAL RIDGING TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOWS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 DESPITE GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
VERY MILD CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH FOUR
DAYS /INCLUDING TODAY/ IN THE 50S ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. A BIT COOLER IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE MILD WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A PLUME OF WARM AIR ALOFT /H850 MB TEMPS OF
7C TO 12C/. FRIDAY LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE FOUR DAYS...AS A
WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WILL HELP MIX THE WARM
AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A LEAD SHORTWAVE...AHEAD OF MONDAY AND
TUESDAYS STORM SYSTEM...WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW. TEMPERATURES BORDER LINE
FOR SNOW...WITH H850MB TEMPERATURES BARELY BELOW FREEZING AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S SATURDAY NIGHT AND UPPER 30S AND
40S SUNDAY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. TONIGHTS
27/00Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM A BIT
SOUTH OF THE 26/12Z RUNS. FURTHER SHIFTING IS OF COURSE EXPECTED THE
NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
THE 27/00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS ALSO SHIFTED EVER SO SLIGHTLY SOUTH
OF THE 26/12Z MEAN. THE MEAN CENTERS A HEAVY QPF CENTER NEAR MCCOOK
OF 1.2 INCHES LIQUID. AT NORTH PLATTE THE MEAN IS AROUND 0.75 OF AN
INCH...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH. THE TREND IN THE MODELS
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR FURTHER SHIFTING IN
THE STORM TRACK. WITH THE SHIFT SOUTH IN TONIGHTS MODEL
RUNS...DECIDED TO LEAVE POPS AT 50 PERCENT OR LESS FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. DID NOT WANT TO INTRODUCE
LIKELY POPS AT THIS POINT IN CASE THE SOUTHWARD TREND AWAY FROM THE
AREA CONTINUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 513 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
SASKACTHEWAN WILL MOVE INTO NRN MN TONIGHT. SCT-BKN150-200 CLOUDS
ACROSS ERN MT MOVE ACROSS WRN/NCNTL NEB TODAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
348 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
THE ARCTIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NRN
SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING WILL DIVE TO THE MINNESOTA ARROW HEAD BY
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW SHOULD INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN NEB. THE FRONT
SHOULD REMAIN OVER OR NORTHEAST OF THE MISSOURI BASIN TONIGHT. THE
MODELS SHOW WARM AIR BACKFILLING ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES IN ALBERTA. THUS THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS WITH
THERMAL RIDGING ACROSS NEB THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE RAP INDICATES THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
THIS MORNING WILL DECAY AS THEY MOVE SOUTH AS A RESULT OF MID LEVEL
DIVERGENCE. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A PERIOD OF
DEEP VERTICAL MIXING SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS. THE ECS GUIDANCE SHOWS 51F FOR A HIGH AT VALENTINE. THE
FORECAST USES A BLEND OF THE WARMER MAV...EKD AND ECS GUIDANCE PLUS
BIAS CORRECTION FOR HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTN. SFC MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE
NRN ROCKIES INTO ERN MT WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THUS WARMER
TEMPERATURES...STRONG WINDS AND WET BULB TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S WILL ACCELERATE SNOW MELT.
850-700MB WINDS OF 25 TO 40 KT AND THERMAL RIDGING TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOWS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 DESPITE GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
VERY MILD CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH FOUR
DAYS /INCLUDING TODAY/ IN THE 50S ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. A BIT COOLER IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE MILD WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A PLUME OF WARM AIR ALOFT /H850 MB TEMPS OF
7C TO 12C/. FRIDAY LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE FOUR DAYS...AS A
WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WILL HELP MIX THE WARM
AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A LEAD SHORTWAVE...AHEAD OF MONDAY AND
TUESDAYS STORM SYSTEM...WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW. TEMPERATURES BORDER LINE
FOR SNOW...WITH H850MB TEMPERATURES BARELY BELOW FREEZING AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S SATURDAY NIGHT AND UPPER 30S AND
40S SUNDAY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. TONIGHTS
27/00Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM A BIT
SOUTH OF THE 26/12Z RUNS. FURTHER SHIFTING IS OF COURSE EXPECTED THE
NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
THE 27/00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS ALSO SHIFTED EVER SO SLIGHTLY SOUTH
OF THE 26/12Z MEAN. THE MEAN CENTERS A HEAVY QPF CENTER NEAR MCCOOK
OF 1.2 INCHES LIQUID. AT NORTH PLATTE THE MEAN IS AROUND 0.75 OF AN
INCH...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH. THE TREND IN THE MODELS
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR FURTHER SHIFTING IN
THE STORM TRACK. WITH THE SHIFT SOUTH IN TONIGHTS MODEL
RUNS...DECIDED TO LEAVE POPS AT 50 PERCENT OR LESS FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. DID NOT WANT TO INTRODUCE
LIKELY POPS AT THIS POINT IN CASE THE SOUTHWARD TREND AWAY FROM THE
AREA CONTINUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS OF
15000 TO 20000 FT AGL. AFTER MID AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT
CLEAR SKIES. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS OF 10000 TO 15000 FT AGL
THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT SCATTERED
CLOUDS AROUND 20000 FT AGL WITH CLEAR SKIES FORECAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BUTTLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1240 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT ALONG WITH QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. MAY SEE A SHORT
PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR ARRIVES
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS WHICH DEPICT THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
REACHING THE NY/PA BORDER, I EXPANDED POPS INTO THE TWIN TIERS,
WHERE A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE IN BRIEF
SHOWERS.
THE MOST PERSISTENT LES ACTIVITY HAS DEPARTED THE NORTHERN FA, SO
I WILL ALLOW POPS TO DROP DOWN TO HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY OVER THE
NEXT HOUR, AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
MAXES LOOK GOOD. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3-6
HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS...CURRENTLY EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO ONEIDA...ONONDAGA AND
MADISON COUNTIES AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE FINGER LAKES THIS
MORNING.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TO BE A SMALL ENOUGH EVENT FOR THE ABOVE
MENTIONED AREAS TO NOT ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. EXPECTING
AROUND 1 TO 4 INCHES IN ONEIDA COUNTY...1 TO 2 INCHES IN ONONDAGA
AND MADISON COUNTIES AND AN INCH OR LESS FROM SENECA AND SRN CAYUGA
OVER TO OTSEGO COUNTY.
A STRONG 1000-950MB CONVERGENT ZONE IS BEGINNING TO SET UP ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO AND WILL INTENSIFY AND DROP SOUTHWARD FROM AROUND 11-
15Z. COLD AIR IS ADVECTING IN FROM THE NW ALONG A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS...AND IS COOLING THE AIR ALOFT FASTER THAN THE SFC. THIS
WILL ALLOW LOW LVL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN THIS MORNING AND CREATE
ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL NY. THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER OFF THE RAP AND THE NAM
BOTH INDICATE THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SQUALLS ALONG SERN
PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO AND AREAS INLAND THIS MORNING. SO...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS AS THEY DEVELOP FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
BRIEF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS DURING OR JUST AFTER THE MORNING COMMUTE.
THERE ARE A FEW LIMITING FACTORS WITH THIS EVENT...WHICH WILL KEEP
SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE LOWER SIDE. THE AMT OF DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING
AND THE AIR ALOFT IS NOT AT LEVELS WHICH PROMPT THE HEAVY LES. 850MB
TEMPS ARE ONLY AROUND -10 TO -12 DEG C. BOTH OF THESE WILL HINDER
THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW. THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IS VERY SMALL
AS WELL. BL WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW BETWEEN 10-12Z AND REMAIN
FAVORABLE THROUGH 16-18Z THIS MORNING BEFORE BACKING BACK TO THE SW.
THE LIMITING FACTORS FOR THIS EVENT SEEM TO OUTWEIGH THE
SUPPORTIVE FACTORS...SO HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY
AND GO WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT TO THREAT OF
LES THIS MORNING.
HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOWER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT ALONG WITH A DRIER AIR
MASS AND A SWLY WIND FLOW. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW THE LES TO
COME TO AN END AND KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES IN FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY. THERMAL PROFILES WILL REMAIN
COLD ENOUGH THROUGH THE DURATION OF THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE EXPECTED
TO TRACK THROUGH NRN NEW ENGLAND TO KEEP ALL THE PRECIP IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AND KEEP THE
SNOW AMTS LIGHT. ANOTHER COLD PUSH OF CANADIAN AIR ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO AND INTO CENTRAL NY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR THE NEXT PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
SNOWFALL AMTS MAY BE MORE DUE TO A LONGER PERIOD OF SNOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
215 PM TUE UPDATE...
IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL BE
EMBEDDED WITH WEAK WAVES YET OVERALL WILL BECOME ZONAL OVER THE
WEEKEND...ORIENTATING MORE WSW-ENE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LONG
STORY SHORT IS THAT NO BIG SYSTEMS ARE FORESEEN...AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL.
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION SIDE OF A WEAKENING CLIPPER COULD BRING A
QUICK BATCH OF SNOW SHOWERS-FLURRIES SATURDAY...MIXING WITH RAIN
SHOWERS-SPRINKLES. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THIS WILL BE IN CENTRAL
NEW YORK...BUT WHEREVER IT OCCURS THE ACTIVITY WILL BE QUITE
LIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY...BUT ANOTHER CLIPPER LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY COULD YIELD ANOTHER MINOR BATCH OF MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW...TIMING DIFFERS BY MODEL YET AGAIN ALL OF IT LIGHT.
ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS FORESEEN BEHIND THE CLIPPER MONDAY
NIGHT...STILL WARMER THAN CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUGGEST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS TO BE MOST PREVALENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT NOT MUCH OF A HUGE IMPEDIMENT TO VSBY OR
CIGS. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP DURING THE EARLY
EVENING AND START TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. VFR WILL LIKELY BE FOUND AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS. CLOUDS MAY INCREASE VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND
CIGS MAY START TO DROP. THROUGH EVEN WITH THIS MVFR TO VFR WILL
REMAIN AND STRONGER AND POSSIBLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE IN
PLACE BY 14-16Z.
.OUTLOOK...
THU...VFR MAINLY...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS FROM THE AFTN INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.
FRI-SAT-SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHSN FRI...AND MIXED
SHRA/SHSN OVER THE WEEKEND. MAINLY VFR FOR KAVP.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT/DJP
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...ABS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1000 AM EST WED JAN 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT ALONG WITH QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. MAY SEE A SHORT
PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR ARRIVES
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS WHICH DEPICT THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
REACHING THE NY/PA BORDER, I EXPANDED POPS INTO THE TWIN TIERS,
WHERE A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE IN BRIEF
SHOWERS.
THE MOST PERSISTENT LES ACTIVITY HAS DEPARTED THE NORTHERN FA, SO
I WILL ALLOW POPS TO DROP DOWN TO HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY OVER THE
NEXT HOUR, AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
MAXES LOOK GOOD. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3-6
HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS...CURRENTLY EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO ONEIDA...ONONDAGA AND
MADISON COUNTIES AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE FINGER LAKES THIS
MORNING.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TO BE A SMALL ENOUGH EVENT FOR THE ABOVE
MENTIONED AREAS TO NOT ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. EXPECTING
AROUND 1 TO 4 INCHES IN ONEIDA COUNTY...1 TO 2 INCHES IN ONONDAGA
AND MADISON COUNTIES AND AN INCH OR LESS FROM SENECA AND SRN CAYUGA
OVER TO OTSEGO COUNTY.
A STRONG 1000-950MB CONVERGENT ZONE IS BEGINNING TO SET UP ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO AND WILL INTENSIFY AND DROP SOUTHWARD FROM AROUND 11-
15Z. COLD AIR IS ADVECTING IN FROM THE NW ALONG A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS...AND IS COOLING THE AIR ALOFT FASTER THAN THE SFC. THIS
WILL ALLOW LOW LVL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN THIS MORNING AND CREATE
ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL NY. THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER OFF THE RAP AND THE NAM
BOTH INDICATE THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SQUALLS ALONG SERN
PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO AND AREAS INLAND THIS MORNING. SO...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS AS THEY DEVELOP FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
BRIEF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS DURING OR JUST AFTER THE MORNING COMMUTE.
THERE ARE A FEW LIMITING FACTORS WITH THIS EVENT...WHICH WILL KEEP
SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE LOWER SIDE. THE AMT OF DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING
AND THE AIR ALOFT IS NOT AT LEVELS WHICH PROMPT THE HEAVY LES. 850MB
TEMPS ARE ONLY AROUND -10 TO -12 DEG C. BOTH OF THESE WILL HINDER
THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW. THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IS VERY SMALL
AS WELL. BL WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW BETWEEN 10-12Z AND REMAIN
FAVORABLE THROUGH 16-18Z THIS MORNING BEFORE BACKING BACK TO THE SW.
THE LIMITING FACTORS FOR THIS EVENT SEEM TO OUTWEIGH THE
SUPPORTIVE FACTORS...SO HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY
AND GO WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT TO THREAT OF
LES THIS MORNING.
HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOWER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT ALONG WITH A DRIER AIR
MASS AND A SWLY WIND FLOW. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW THE LES TO
COME TO AN END AND KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES IN FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY. THERMAL PROFILES WILL REMAIN
COLD ENOUGH THROUGH THE DURATION OF THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE EXPECTED
TO TRACK THROUGH NRN NEW ENGLAND TO KEEP ALL THE PRECIP IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AND KEEP THE
SNOW AMTS LIGHT. ANOTHER COLD PUSH OF CANADIAN AIR ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO AND INTO CENTRAL NY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR THE NEXT PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
SNOWFALL AMTS MAY BE MORE DUE TO A LONGER PERIOD OF SNOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
215 PM TUE UPDATE...
IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL BE
EMBEDDED WITH WEAK WAVES YET OVERALL WILL BECOME ZONAL OVER THE
WEEKEND...ORIENTATING MORE WSW-ENE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LONG
STORY SHORT IS THAT NO BIG SYSTEMS ARE FORESEEN...AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL.
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION SIDE OF A WEAKENING CLIPPER COULD BRING A
QUICK BATCH OF SNOW SHOWERS-FLURRIES SATURDAY...MIXING WITH RAIN
SHOWERS-SPRINKLES. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THIS WILL BE IN CENTRAL
NEW YORK...BUT WHEREVER IT OCCURS THE ACTIVITY WILL BE QUITE
LIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY...BUT ANOTHER CLIPPER LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY COULD YIELD ANOTHER MINOR BATCH OF MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW...TIMING DIFFERS BY MODEL YET AGAIN ALL OF IT LIGHT.
ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS FORESEEN BEHIND THE CLIPPER MONDAY
NIGHT...STILL WARMER THAN CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUGGEST.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA TODAY AS COOLER TEMPS ALOFT ARE PRESENT
RESULTING IN THE INVERSION HEIGHTS BEING LOWERED. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS HAS ALSO DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING AS NW FLOW FUNNELS ACROSS THE LAKES
MAKING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE FOR THE CONTINUATION OF
LE SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. IFR VISBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT KSYR AND
KRME BEFORE 18Z. LE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT WITH ACCUMULATIONS LESS
THAN 4 INCHES.
WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AND LIGHT THROUGH THE MID MORNING... THEN
TRANSITIONING TO THE NW AROUND 12 KNOTS... WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.
.OUTLOOK...
THU...VFR.
FRI-SAT-SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHSN FRI...AND MIXED
SHRA/SHSN OVER THE WEEKEND. MAINLY VFR FOR KAVP.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT/DJP
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...KAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
642 AM EST WED JAN 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT ALONG WITH QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. MAY SEE A SHORT
PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR ARRIVES
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS...CURRENTLY EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO ONEIDA...ONONDAGA AND
MADISON COUNTIES AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE FINGER LAKES THIS
MORNING.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TO BE A SMALL ENOUGH EVENT FOR THE ABOVE
MENTIONED AREAS TO NOT ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. EXPECTING
AROUND 1 TO 4 INCHES IN ONEIDA COUNTY...1 TO 2 INCHES IN ONONDAGA
AND MADISON COUNTIES AND AN INCH OR LESS FROM SENECA AND SRN CAYUGA
OVER TO OTSEGO COUNTY.
A STRONG 1000-950MB CONVERGENT ZONE IS BEGINNING TO SET UP ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO AND WILL INTENSIFY AND DROP SOUTHWARD FROM AROUND 11-
15Z. COLD AIR IS ADVECTING IN FROM THE NW ALONG A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS...AND IS COOLING THE AIR ALOFT FASTER THAN THE SFC. THIS
WILL ALLOW LOW LVL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN THIS MORNING AND CREATE
ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL NY. THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER OFF THE RAP AND THE NAM
BOTH INDICATE THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SQUALLS ALONG SERN
PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO AND AREAS INLAND THIS MORNING. SO...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS AS THEY DEVELOP FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
BRIEF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS DURING OR JUST AFTER THE MORNING COMMUTE.
THERE ARE A FEW LIMITING FACTORS WITH THIS EVENT...WHICH WILL KEEP
SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE LOWER SIDE. THE AMT OF DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING
AND THE AIR ALOFT IS NOT AT LEVELS WHICH PROMPT THE HEAVY LES. 850MB
TEMPS ARE ONLY AROUND -10 TO -12 DEG C. BOTH OF THESE WILL HINDER
THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW. THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IS VERY SMALL
AS WELL. BL WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW BETWEEN 10-12Z AND REMAIN
FAVORABLE THROUGH 16-18Z THIS MORNING BEFORE BACKING BACK TO THE SW.
THE LIMITING FACTORS FOR THIS EVENT SEEM TO OUTWEIGH THE
SUPPORTIVE FACTORS...SO HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY
AND GO WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT TO THREAT OF
LES THIS MORNING.
HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOWER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT ALONG WITH A DRIER AIR
MASS AND A SWLY WIND FLOW. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW THE LES TO
COME TO AN END AND KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES IN FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY. THERMAL PROFILES WILL REMAIN
COLD ENOUGH THROUGH THE DURATION OF THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE EXPECTED
TO TRACK THROUGH NRN NEW ENGLAND TO KEEP ALL THE PRECIP IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AND KEEP THE
SNOW AMTS LIGHT. ANOTHER COLD PUSH OF CANADIAN AIR ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO AND INTO CENTRAL NY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR THE NEXT PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
SNOWFALL AMTS MAY BE MORE DUE TO A LONGER PERIOD OF SNOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
215 PM TUE UPDATE...
IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL BE
EMBEDDED WITH WEAK WAVES YET OVERALL WILL BECOME ZONAL OVER THE
WEEKEND...ORIENTATING MORE WSW-ENE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LONG
STORY SHORT IS THAT NO BIG SYSTEMS ARE FORESEEN...AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL.
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION SIDE OF A WEAKENING CLIPPER COULD BRING A
QUICK BATCH OF SNOW SHOWERS-FLURRIES SATURDAY...MIXING WITH RAIN
SHOWERS-SPRINKLES. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THIS WILL BE IN CENTRAL
NEW YORK...BUT WHEREVER IT OCCURS THE ACTIVITY WILL BE QUITE
LIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY...BUT ANOTHER CLIPPER LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY COULD YIELD ANOTHER MINOR BATCH OF MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW...TIMING DIFFERS BY MODEL YET AGAIN ALL OF IT LIGHT.
ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS FORESEEN BEHIND THE CLIPPER MONDAY
NIGHT...STILL WARMER THAN CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUGGEST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA TODAY AS COOLER TEMPS ALOFT ARE PRESENT
RESULTING IN THE INVERSION HEIGHTS BEING LOWERED. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS HAS ALSO DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING AS NW FLOW FUNNELS ACROSS THE LAKES
MAKING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE FOR THE CONTINUATION OF
LE SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. IFR VISBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT KSYR AND
KRME BEFORE 18Z. LE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT WITH ACCUMULATIONS LESS
THAN 4 INCHES.
WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AND LIGHT THROUGH THE MID MORNING... THEN
TRANSITIONING TO THE NW AROUND 12 KNOTS... WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.
.OUTLOOK...
THU...VFR.
FRI-SAT-SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHSN FRI...AND MIXED
SHRA/SHSN OVER THE WEEKEND. MAINLY VFR FOR KAVP.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...KAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
351 AM EST WED JAN 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT ALONG WITH QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. MAY SEE A SHORT
PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR ARRIVES
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS...CURRENTLY EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO ONEIDA...ONONDAGA AND
MADISON COUNTIES AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE FINGER LAKES THIS
MORNING.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TO BE A SMALL ENOUGH EVENT FOR THE ABOVE
MENTIONED AREAS TO NOT ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. EXPECTING
AROUND 1 TO 4 INCHES IN ONEIDA COUNTY...1 TO 2 INCHES IN ONONDAGA
AND MADISON COUNTIES AND AN INCH OR LESS FROM SENECA AND SRN CAYUGA
OVER TO OTSEGO COUNTY.
A STRONG 1000-950MB CONVERGENT ZONE IS BEGINNING TO SET UP ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO AND WILL INTENSIFY AND DROP SOUTHWARD FROM AROUND 11-
15Z. COLD AIR IS ADVECTING IN FROM THE NW ALONG A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS...AND IS COOLING THE AIR ALOFT FASTER THAN THE SFC. THIS
WILL ALLOW LOW LVL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN THIS MORNING AND CREATE
ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL NY. THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER OFF THE RAP AND THE NAM
BOTH INDICATE THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SQUALLS ALONG SERN
PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO AND AREAS INLAND THIS MORNING. SO...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS AS THEY DEVELOP FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
BRIEF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS DURING OR JUST AFTER THE MORNING COMMUTE.
THERE ARE A FEW LIMITING FACTORS WITH THIS EVENT...WHICH WILL KEEP
SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE LOWER SIDE. THE AMT OF DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING
AND THE AIR ALOFT IS NOT AT LEVELS WHICH PROMPT THE HEAVY LES. 850MB
TEMPS ARE ONLY AROUND -10 TO -12 DEG C. BOTH OF THESE WILL HINDER
THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW. THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IS VERY SMALL
AS WELL. BL WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW BETWEEN 10-12Z AND REMAIN
FAVORABLE THROUGH 16-18Z THIS MORNING BEFORE BACKING BACK TO THE SW.
THE LIMITING FACTORS FOR THIS EVENT SEEM TO OUTWEIGH THE
SUPPORTIVE FACTORS...SO HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY
AND GO WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT TO THREAT OF
LES THIS MORNING.
HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOWER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT ALONG WITH A DRIER AIR
MASS AND A SWLY WIND FLOW. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW THE LES TO
COME TO AN END AND KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES IN FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY. THERMAL PROFILES WILL REMAIN
COLD ENOUGH THROUGH THE DURATION OF THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE EXPECTED
TO TRACK THROUGH NRN NEW ENGLAND TO KEEP ALL THE PRECIP IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AND KEEP THE
SNOW AMTS LIGHT. ANOTHER COLD PUSH OF CANADIAN AIR ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO AND INTO CENTRAL NY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR THE NEXT PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
SNOWFALL AMTS MAY BE MORE DUE TO A LONGER PERIOD OF SNOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
215 PM TUE UPDATE...
IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL BE
EMBEDDED WITH WEAK WAVES YET OVERALL WILL BECOME ZONAL OVER THE
WEEKEND...ORIENTATING MORE WSW-ENE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LONG
STORY SHORT IS THAT NO BIG SYSTEMS ARE FORESEEN...AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL.
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION SIDE OF A WEAKENING CLIPPER COULD BRING A
QUICK BATCH OF SNOW SHOWERS-FLURRIES SATURDAY...MIXING WITH RAIN
SHOWERS-SPRINKLES. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THIS WILL BE IN CENTRAL
NEW YORK...BUT WHEREVER IT OCCURS THE ACTIVITY WILL BE QUITE
LIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY...BUT ANOTHER CLIPPER LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY COULD YIELD ANOTHER MINOR BATCH OF MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW...TIMING DIFFERS BY MODEL YET AGAIN ALL OF IT LIGHT.
ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS FORESEEN BEHIND THE CLIPPER MONDAY
NIGHT...STILL WARMER THAN CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUGGEST.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND
NORTHEAST PA AS COOLER AIR MOVES OVER THE REGION. THIS AIRMASS WILL
ALSO INDUCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL NY. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND COULD IMPACT KITH... KBGM... KSYR AND KRME.
SOME OF THESE LE SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE IFR VISBYS. THE LOCATIONS
WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS IS KSYR AND KRME.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A TRACE TO AROUND 4
INCHES. WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS LOCATED OVER KRME AND KSYR.
WINDS WEST-SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AROUND 10 KTS. GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH
WED, ESPECIALLY NY TERMINALS.
.OUTLOOK...
THU...VFR.
FRI-SAT-SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHSN FRI...AND MIXED
SHRA/SHSN OVER THE WEEKEND. MAINLY VFR FOR KAVP.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...KAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
642 PM EST THU JAN 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE TONIGHT...THEN MOVE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. MILD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN PASS OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 640 PM THURSDAY...BULK OF THE STEADY RAINFALL HAS CONTINUE
OVER INLAND AREAS...MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 17 THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. LATEST RUNS OF THE 3KM HRRR AND
RAP MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE STEADY LIGHT RAIN SHIFTING
MORE TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND CONTINUING
TO AROUND 09Z OR 10Z. MADE SOME MINOR TIMING CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST PRECIPITATION TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS...BUT MAIN
IDEA REMAINS THE SAME WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE
AREA INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY RAPID CLEARING
NEAR SUNRISE. NO CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH ONGOING CAA BEING REINFORCED IN AFTN WITH PASSAGE OF
MAIN SHRT WV TROF. LEANED TO BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND MOS GDNC
FOR HIGH TEMPS...LOWER 50S INLAND TO AROUND 50 OBX.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...HIGH PRESSURE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY.
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY, MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY.
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT WITH LOW LEVEL SW FLOW. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COOL FRI NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING TO JUST BELOW OR NEAR
FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHS SAT NEAR CLIMO...IN THE 50S.
TEMPS THEN WARMING INTO THE 60-70 DEG RANGE SUN THROUGH WED.
INCREASED HIGH TEMPS A DEG OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESP
ALONG THE OUTER BANKS. SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S TUE AND WED INLAND...THOUGH DID NOT GO QUITE THAT WARM
YET.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION MID-WEEK...WITH MODELS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH WED AND WED
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE POPS...CAPPING AT 40 PERCENT
RIGHT NOW. STILL LOOKS LIKE A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SET UP WITH ISOLATED
TSTMS POSSIBLE. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU
MORNING. STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND SECONDARY FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
LATE THU INTO FRI...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR FOR LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM THURSDAY...STEADIER LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES NEAR THE
WESTERN TAF SITES OF KISO/KPGV WITH MORE INTERMITTENT RAINFALL AT
KOAJ AND KEWN. WILL CONTINUE FORECAST OF IFR CEILINGS AT ALL SITES
UNTIL AROUND 09Z OR 10Z WITH PRECIPITATION FINALLY MOVES AWAY AND
RAPID CLEARING COMMENCES. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY BY
MID-MORNING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...PRED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF
PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM THURSDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE TO NORTH
WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
PRODUCE SOME 15-25 KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TOWARD MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NW TO W FRIDAY AS
LOW DEPARTS TO NE AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM W-SW...WITH
SECONDARY CAA SURGE PRODUCING SPEEDS 20-25 KT IN AFTN. SCA POSTED
FOR OUTER WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT OUTER PORTIONS OF SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS
TONIGHT...SPREADING TO NRN WATERS FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...GUSTY NW WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL START OFF
THE PERIOD FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRAD SUBSIDE FRI NIGHT
AND EXPECT TO DROP BELOW SCA EARLY SAT MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY THEN SHIFTS OFF THE COAST
SUNDAY. OVERALL NICE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS SAT
THROUGH TUE...WITH PRED SW FLOW 10-20KT AND SEAS 2-4FT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CTC/CQD/LEP
MARINE...CTC/JBM/CQD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1152 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
CURRENT FORECAST STILL ON TRACK. MARGINAL GUSTS ON THE PERIMETER
OF THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING...HOWEVER EXPECT WINDS TO
TREND DOWN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 840 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
OPTED TO GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE
NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FAIRLY STRONG
ACROSS THE AREA AND A FEW WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH HAVE BEEN
REPORTED. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING WINDS DIMINISHING
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THUS HAVE THE ENDED THE ADVISORY BY 3PM
CDT. ALSO INCREASED TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AS OBS SHOWED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS A LITTLE BEHIND.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
THE CORE OF 5 MB/3 HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE RISES IS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF ND AS OF 12 UTC...AND RAP GUIDANCE /WHICH HAS
BEEN CAPTURING THIS FEATURE WELL/ TAKES IT SOUTHEAST ACROSS WEST
AND CENTRAL ND BY MIDDAY...WHILE WEAKENING ITS MAGNITUDE. WE HAVE
CHOSEN TO CONTINUE MESSAGING THE SURGE OF STRONG WINDS THAT WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT INSTEAD OF
A WIND ADVISORY SINCE THE WINDS ARE DRIVEN BY ISALLOBARIC FORCING
AND THUS SHOULD DECREASE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AFTER ONLY A FEW
HOURS. THAT HAS BEEN THE THEME IN UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS OVERNIGHT.
IF THE WELL-MIXED LAYER DEEPENS SUFFICIENTLY THEN THE WINDS COULD
REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER NORTH CENTRAL ND...BUT WE
STILL ARE NOT CONFIDENT THAT WILL OCCUR.
OTHERWISE...THE BATCH OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WITH THE WARM FRONT
HAS EXITED THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AS OF 1230 UTC...BRINGING AN
END TO THAT THREAT. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS
UPDATE TO CAPTURE THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE A WINDOW OF
LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAIN REGION SOUTH THROUGH THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...THEN A SURGE
OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING.
CURRENTLY...STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
RAPIDLY MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. WAA
AHEAD OF THE WAVE COUPLED WITH AN INCREASING WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES WARMING UP INTO THE 30S WEST WITH
THIS TREND CONTINUING EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
COUPLE OF CONCERNS WITH THE CLIPPER...THE FIRST BEING FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS MY NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
SOUTH THROUGH WELLS AND FOSTER COUNTY. THIS THREAT SHOULD BE OVER
BY 12Z FOR THESE AREAS. DO NOT FEEL THE NEED FOR A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY AS THE PRECIPITATION IS MOVING SO FAST AND ACCUMULATIONS
WILL GENERALLY BE VERY LIGHT.
SECOND CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH.
WIND GUST OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH PEAK AT 40-45KTS...WITH GUSTS THEN TAPERING OFF BACK INTO
THE 25-30KT RANGE. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THE PEAK WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE...WITH THIS INITIAL WIND SURGE ONLY
LASTING FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. WITH SUB-ADVISORY WINDS FORECAST FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...OPTED TO AN ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT VERSUS A WIND ADVISORY. REASONING: THINK AN ADVISORY IS
OVERKILL FOR AN EVENT WHERE WE WILL ONLY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR AN OB OR TWO WITH THE MIXED LAYER SO SHALLOW AND CAA RATHER
WEAK. WE FELT A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS A BETTER PRODUCT FOR
THIS SCENARIO AND STILL CONVEYS THE WIND THREAT.
WINDS REMAIN BREEZY TONIGHT EAST...TAPERING OFF IN THE EVENING
WEST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
MILD WEATHER WILL FINISH OUT THIS WEEK...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY. A COOLING TREND IS STILL EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
ON THE LARGE SCALE...THE 00 UTC MODEL SUITE AGREED THAT SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AHEAD OF A SERIES OF
IMPULSES THAT WILL ESTABLISH A MEAN 500-MB TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES BY THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY WARM AIR WITH
850-MB TEMPERATURES UP TO +11 C WILL ADVECT EASTWARD INTO WESTERN
ND BY LATE THURSDAY...WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE TRANSLATING EAST AND
WEAKENING BY FRIDAY AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER CROSSES THE AREA. THIS
WILL YIELD WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY
ON FRIDAY WHEN BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL BE MORE EFFICIENT. WIND
POTENTIAL IS ALSO ON OUR MINDS HEADING INTO FRIDAY AS WINDS ALOFT
INCREASE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWS THE ALBERTA CLIPPER...BUT
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS AS THE 00
UTC GUIDANCE HAS A FAIR SPREAD IN 850-MB WIND SPEEDS FROM ONLY 40
KT ON THE NAM TO 55 KT ON THE GFS.
LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL EXIST WITH THE FRIDAY SYSTEM...BUT
IF ANYTHING THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUGGESTED LESS MOISTURE POTENTIAL
IN THAT TIME FRAME THAN EARLIER CYCLES. THEREAFTER...BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SUGGESTED ANOTHER IMPULSE COULD YIELD SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING...AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO
SUNDAY. A MUCH STRONGER...GREATER-AMPLITUDE WAVE IS THEN EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY MONDAY...AND THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY ABOUT TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE 00 UTC MODELS CONTINUED TO
KEEP THIS COLORADO LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...LEAVING US
WITH ONLY A COOL-DOWN TOWARD NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF CYCLE. NORTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH
TONIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ003>005-
011>013-021>023-025.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...MM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
854 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
OPTED TO GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE
NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FAIRLY STRONG
ACROSS THE AREA AND A FEW WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH HAVE BEEN
REPORTED. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING WINDS DIMINISHING
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THUS HAVE THE ENDED THE ADVISORY BY 3PM
CDT. ALSO INCREASED TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AS OBS SHOWED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS A LITTLE BEHIND.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
THE CORE OF 5 MB/3 HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE RISES IS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF ND AS OF 12 UTC...AND RAP GUIDANCE /WHICH HAS
BEEN CAPTURING THIS FEATURE WELL/ TAKES IT SOUTHEAST ACROSS WEST
AND CENTRAL ND BY MIDDAY...WHILE WEAKENING ITS MAGNITUDE. WE HAVE
CHOSEN TO CONTINUE MESSAGING THE SURGE OF STRONG WINDS THAT WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT INSTEAD OF
A WIND ADVISORY SINCE THE WINDS ARE DRIVEN BY ISALLOBARIC FORCING
AND THUS SHOULD DECREASE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AFTER ONLY A FEW
HOURS. THAT HAS BEEN THE THEME IN UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS OVERNIGHT.
IF THE WELL-MIXED LAYER DEEPENS SUFFICIENTLY THEN THE WINDS COULD
REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER NORTH CENTRAL ND...BUT WE
STILL ARE NOT CONFIDENT THAT WILL OCCUR.
OTHERWISE...THE BATCH OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WITH THE WARM FRONT
HAS EXITED THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AS OF 1230 UTC...BRINGING AN
END TO THAT THREAT. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS
UPDATE TO CAPTURE THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE A WINDOW OF
LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAIN REGION SOUTH THROUGH THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...THEN A SURGE
OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING.
CURRENTLY...STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
RAPIDLY MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. WAA
AHEAD OF THE WAVE COUPLED WITH AN INCREASING WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES WARMING UP INTO THE 30S WEST WITH
THIS TREND CONTINUING EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
COUPLE OF CONCERNS WITH THE CLIPPER...THE FIRST BEING FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS MY NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
SOUTH THROUGH WELLS AND FOSTER COUNTY. THIS THREAT SHOULD BE OVER
BY 12Z FOR THESE AREAS. DO NOT FEEL THE NEED FOR A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY AS THE PRECIPITATION IS MOVING SO FAST AND ACCUMULATIONS
WILL GENERALLY BE VERY LIGHT.
SECOND CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH.
WIND GUST OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH PEAK AT 40-45KTS...WITH GUSTS THEN TAPERING OFF BACK INTO
THE 25-30KT RANGE. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THE PEAK WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE...WITH THIS INITIAL WIND SURGE ONLY
LASTING FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. WITH SUB-ADVISORY WINDS FORECAST FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...OPTED TO AN ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT VERSUS A WIND ADVISORY. REASONING: THINK AN ADVISORY IS
OVERKILL FOR AN EVENT WHERE WE WILL ONLY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR AN OB OR TWO WITH THE MIXED LAYER SO SHALLOW AND CAA RATHER
WEAK. WE FELT A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS A BETTER PRODUCT FOR
THIS SCENARIO AND STILL CONVEYS THE WIND THREAT.
WINDS REMAIN BREEZY TONIGHT EAST...TAPERING OFF IN THE EVENING
WEST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
MILD WEATHER WILL FINISH OUT THIS WEEK...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY. A COOLING TREND IS STILL EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
ON THE LARGE SCALE...THE 00 UTC MODEL SUITE AGREED THAT SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AHEAD OF A SERIES OF
IMPULSES THAT WILL ESTABLISH A MEAN 500-MB TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES BY THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY WARM AIR WITH
850-MB TEMPERATURES UP TO +11 C WILL ADVECT EASTWARD INTO WESTERN
ND BY LATE THURSDAY...WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE TRANSLATING EAST AND
WEAKENING BY FRIDAY AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER CROSSES THE AREA. THIS
WILL YIELD WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY
ON FRIDAY WHEN BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL BE MORE EFFICIENT. WIND
POTENTIAL IS ALSO ON OUR MINDS HEADING INTO FRIDAY AS WINDS ALOFT
INCREASE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWS THE ALBERTA CLIPPER...BUT
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS AS THE 00
UTC GUIDANCE HAS A FAIR SPREAD IN 850-MB WIND SPEEDS FROM ONLY 40
KT ON THE NAM TO 55 KT ON THE GFS.
LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL EXIST WITH THE FRIDAY SYSTEM...BUT
IF ANYTHING THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUGGESTED LESS MOISTURE POTENTIAL
IN THAT TIME FRAME THAN EARLIER CYCLES. THEREAFTER...BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SUGGESTED ANOTHER IMPULSE COULD YIELD SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING...AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO
SUNDAY. A MUCH STRONGER...GREATER-AMPLITUDE WAVE IS THEN EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY MONDAY...AND THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY ABOUT TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE 00 UTC MODELS CONTINUED TO
KEEP THIS COLORADO LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...LEAVING US
WITH ONLY A COOL-DOWN TOWARD NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
A SURGE OF STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40 KT
WILL AFFECT MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND BEFORE 18 UTC...WITH
WINDS REMAINING GUSTY...BUT SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL AFFECT NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
ND THIS MORNING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ003>005-
011>013-021>023-025.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...CJS/NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
643 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
THE CORE OF 5 MB/3 HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE RISES IS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF ND AS OF 12 UTC...AND RAP GUIDANCE /WHICH HAS
BEEN CAPTURING THIS FEATURE WELL/ TAKES IT SOUTHEAST ACROSS WEST
AND CENTRAL ND BY MIDDAY...WHILE WEAKENING ITS MAGNITUDE. WE HAVE
CHOSEN TO CONTINUE MESSAGING THE SURGE OF STRONG WINDS THAT WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT INSTEAD OF
A WIND ADVISORY SINCE THE WINDS ARE DRIVEN BY ISALLOBARIC FORCING
AND THUS SHOULD DECREASE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AFTER ONLY A FEW
HOURS. THAT HAS BEEN THE THEME IN UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS OVERNIGHT.
IF THE WELL-MIXED LAYER DEEPENS SUFFICIENTLY THEN THE WINDS COULD
REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER NORTH CENTRAL ND...BUT WE
STILL ARE NOT CONFIDENT THAT WILL OCCUR.
OTHERWISE...THE BATCH OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WITH THE WARM FRONT
HAS EXITED THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AS OF 1230 UTC...BRINGING AN
END TO THAT THREAT. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS
UPDATE TO CAPTURE THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE A WINDOW OF
LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAIN REGION SOUTH THROUGH THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...THEN A SURGE
OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING.
CURRENTLY...STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
RAPIDLY MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. WAA
AHEAD OF THE WAVE COUPLED WITH AN INCREASING WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES WARMING UP INTO THE 30S WEST WITH
THIS TREND CONTINUING EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
COUPLE OF CONCERNS WITH THE CLIPPER...THE FIRST BEING FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS MY NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
SOUTH THROUGH WELLS AND FOSTER COUNTY. THIS THREAT SHOULD BE OVER
BY 12Z FOR THESE AREAS. DO NOT FEEL THE NEED FOR A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY AS THE PRECIPITATION IS MOVING SO FAST AND ACCUMULATIONS
WILL GENERALLY BE VERY LIGHT.
SECOND CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH.
WIND GUST OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH PEAK AT 40-45KTS...WITH GUSTS THEN TAPERING OFF BACK INTO
THE 25-30KT RANGE. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THE PEAK WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE...WITH THIS INITIAL WIND SURGE ONLY
LASTING FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. WITH SUB-ADVISORY WINDS FORECAST FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...OPTED TO AN ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT VERSUS A WIND ADVISORY. REASONING: THINK AN ADVISORY IS
OVERKILL FOR AN EVENT WHERE WE WILL ONLY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR AN OB OR TWO WITH THE MIXED LAYER SO SHALLOW AND CAA RATHER
WEAK. WE FELT A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS A BETTER PRODUCT FOR
THIS SCENARIO AND STILL CONVEYS THE WIND THREAT.
WINDS REMAIN BREEZY TONIGHT EAST...TAPERING OFF IN THE EVENING
WEST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
MILD WEATHER WILL FINISH OUT THIS WEEK...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY. A COOLING TREND IS STILL EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
ON THE LARGE SCALE...THE 00 UTC MODEL SUITE AGREED THAT SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AHEAD OF A SERIES OF
IMPULSES THAT WILL ESTABLISH A MEAN 500-MB TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES BY THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY WARM AIR WITH
850-MB TEMPERATURES UP TO +11 C WILL ADVECT EASTWARD INTO WESTERN
ND BY LATE THURSDAY...WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE TRANSLATING EAST AND
WEAKENING BY FRIDAY AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER CROSSES THE AREA. THIS
WILL YIELD WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY
ON FRIDAY WHEN BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL BE MORE EFFICIENT. WIND
POTENTIAL IS ALSO ON OUR MINDS HEADING INTO FRIDAY AS WINDS ALOFT
INCREASE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWS THE ALBERTA CLIPPER...BUT
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS AS THE 00
UTC GUIDANCE HAS A FAIR SPREAD IN 850-MB WIND SPEEDS FROM ONLY 40
KT ON THE NAM TO 55 KT ON THE GFS.
LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL EXIST WITH THE FRIDAY SYSTEM...BUT
IF ANYTHING THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUGGESTED LESS MOISTURE POTENTIAL
IN THAT TIME FRAME THAN EARLIER CYCLES. THEREAFTER...BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SUGGESTED ANOTHER IMPULSE COULD YIELD SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING...AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO
SUNDAY. A MUCH STRONGER...GREATER-AMPLITUDE WAVE IS THEN EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY MONDAY...AND THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY ABOUT TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE 00 UTC MODELS CONTINUED TO
KEEP THIS COLORADO LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...LEAVING US
WITH ONLY A COOL-DOWN TOWARD NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
A SURGE OF STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40 KT
WILL AFFECT MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND BEFORE 18 UTC...WITH
WINDS REMAINING GUSTY...BUT SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL AFFECT NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
ND THIS MORNING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...CJS/NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
438 AM EST WED JAN 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS EAST TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY MORNING. A TROUGH WILL SLIDE BY THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
RAIN MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IN WRN
NC. SOME WINTRY PRECIP IN THE WEST AS COOLER AIR WORKS IN...BUT
OVERALL THREAT OF ANY ACCUMULATION SEEMS LOW...NOT MORE THAN A
DUSTING ON TOP OF THE SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND. SPECIAL WX STATEMENT
STILL IN PLACE TO COVER ANY REFREEZE OF SNOWMELT TIL 7AM.
AS WE HEAD TOWARD MID MORNING MOST OF THE ARE WILL BE PRECIP FREE AS
NW WINDS PICK UP SOME WITH HIGH PRESSURE WORKING IN FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW CLEARING TAKING PLACE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TRENDED THAT WAY IN THE FORECAST.
8H TEMPS COOLER TODAY WITH SOME CAA AND HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...TO MID 40S IN THE
PIEDMONT.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS EAST AND WILL SETUP OVERHEAD. SHOULD
CLEAR OUT FROM NW TO SE...THOUGH SOME MOISTURE MAY STILL SPREAD NWD
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SITS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...SO
KEPT A FEW MORE CLOUDS OVER THE PIEDMONT OF NW NC INTO SOUTHSIDE VA.
LOWS TO NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE MTNS TO MID 20S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS LA AND THE WESTERN GULF...WITH A CONVEYOR
BELT OF GULF MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. MEANWHILE...AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IS
TRACKING EASTWARD WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THESE SYSTEMS ARE NOT PROGGED TO PHASE UNTIL WELL OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THE WEEKEND. THUS...THE RNK CWA IS
ESSENTIALLY LEFT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS. AS THE ALBERTA CLIPPER
MOVES INTO THE ALLEGHANYS THU AFTERNOON...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM FROM GA TO
OFF THE NC COAST. THIS ALLOWS MOISTURE TO POTENTIALLY SPREAD
NORTHEAST BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF IS
THE MODEL MOST PRONOUNCED WITH THIS IDEA. THUS...HAVE ADVERTISED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY THU AS A
RESULT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER. THE PROBLEM HERE IS THAT TEMPS
WILL LIKELY BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING AT THIS SAME TIME. NAM/GFS
MODEL SOUNDINGS OFF BUFKIT SHOW SFC TEMPS AT KDAN NEAR 32F AT 12Z
THU. WITH REMNANT SNOW/ICE ON THE GROUND AND ANY RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT...THIS IS REALISTIC. THUS A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF
-FZRA WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. GIVEN THAT QPF IS ONLY A
TRACE...NO ICE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AND PRECIPITATION WOULD
CHANGE TO -RA AFTER 14Z ANYWAY. ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS...AS THE
CLIPPER MOVES INTO THAT REGION DURING THE EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS BECOME LIKELY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
WITH MINOR 1-2 INCH ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. FLURRIES AND A FEW
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY SPILL FURTHER EAST TOWARD THE
BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT. BY FRIDAY MORNING...THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST OF THE REGION AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END WITH
CLOUDS DECREASING INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD AFTER FRI.
FOR FRI-SAT...THE GENERAL TREND ALOFT IS FOR INCREASINGLY ZONAL
FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO MILDER TEMPERATURES THAN WE HAVE SEEN OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. AFTER A BRIEF SET BACK BEHIND THE
ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM FRI WHEN 850MB TEMPS DROP BACK TO AROUND
-6C TO -8C...850MB TEMPS REBOUND TOWARD +6C QUICKLY INTO SATURDAY.
LATEST MEX MOS AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF MOS SHOW SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES THU-FRI...WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO ONE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR
TO MID/LATE DECEMBER 2015 WITH DEEP TROUGHING EVOLVING IN THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL U.S. A DEEP 530MB CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS
NM/TX PANHANDLE BY TUE...SIMILAR TO THE SYSTEM THAT OCCURRED
ACROSS THIS REGION AROUND CHRISTMAS. HOWEVER...THE LOW CENTER IS A
COUPLE HUNDRED MILES FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS EVENT.
HEIGHTS/THICKNESS VALUES/850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS OUR
REGION AS THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST TO THE WARMEST
LEVELS SEEN SINCE CHRISTMAS...APPROACHING +12C BY WED.
THERE IS ONE FINAL CLIPPER SAT-SUN RACING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THAT MAY RESULT IN A VERY BRIEF SETBACK IN 850MB TEMPS SAT...BUT
OVERALL 850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN ABOVE 0C THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION OF SIGNIFICANCE DOES NOT
COME UNTIL MON WHEN A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF
RAIN INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL
BE TOO WARM AT THAT POINT FOR ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION.
EXTENDED MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WITH LOWS RISING
INTO THE 30S AND 40S. IF THIS PANS OUT AS ADVERTISED...OUR BIG
SNOW STORM OF LATE LAST WEEK WILL SOON BE HISTORY...WITH ONLY THE
LARGE PILES OF SNOW LEFT IN THE PARKING LOTS AND ON THE SIDES OF
ROADS TO REMIND US OF IT.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1110 PM EST TUESDAY...
SWATH OF PRE-FRONTAL RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF THE
REGION LATE THIS EVENING...MAINLY BLUE RIDGE EAST BUT OVERALL OF
THE LIGHT VARIETY. LATEST HRRR MODEL SLOWLY SHIFTS THIS AXIS EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE IT SLOWS NEAR KDAN
AROUND DAWN ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE RIDES UP THE FRONT.
BEHIND THE FRONT KBLF/KLWB AND PERHAPS KBCB WILL GET INTO SOME
UPSLOPE IFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY PERIODS OF SUB-VFR VSBYS WITH SOME
DRIZZLE/FOG...AND AS TEMPERATURES FALL THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE PRECIPITATION GOES OVER TO LIGHT SNOW
OR FLURRIES LATE. SITES FURTHER EAST WILL HAVE NO PTYPE ISSUES BUT
WILL SEE CIGS LOWER INTO MVFR OVERNIGHT AS RAINFALL INCREASES IN
COVERAGE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE TO
VEER MORE NORTHERLY DURING WEDNESDAY ESPCLY OUT EAST.
EXPECT TO SEE SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST
DURING WEDNESDAY AS A MORE PREDOMINANT NW TRAJECTORY TAKES SHAPE
ALOFT ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO FILTER EAST. HOWEVER MAY TAKE UNTIL
MIDDAY OR LONGER TO BECOME VFR AROUND KDAN WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FINALLY SCATTERING OUT FROM KBCB EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD
ADVECTION LIKELY TO KEEP KBLF/KLWB SUB-VFR WITH PERHAPS IFR AT
TIMES AROUND KBLF GIVEN UPSLOPE FLOW UNTIL IMPROVING SOME LATER IN
THE DAY.
THESE LOWER CIGS MAY LINGER AT KBLF/KLWB INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE GRADUAL DRYING TAKES SHAPE ALLOWING ALL OTHER LOCATIONS TO
REMAIN PRIMARILY VFR OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN MORE IN THE WAY
OF WIDESPREAD VFR AT ALL SITES.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL SWING A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN PERIODS OF -SHSN
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER VFR EXPECTED FROM THE
BLUE RIDGE EAST WHERE WILL REMAIN UNDER DOWNSLOPING FLOW. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS/RAB
AVIATION...JH/MBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1117 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT REACHING
THE COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER....AHEAD OF
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL ARRIVE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES SATURDAY
RESULTING IN MUCH MILDER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 840 PM EST TUESDAY...
COLD FRONT REMAINS RATHER SLUGGISH TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING WITH THE BOUNDARY RUNNING ALMOST PARALLEL
TO THE SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. LATEST
GUIDANCE FINALLY KICKS THE FRONT EAST TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHILE THE NARROW SWATH OF LIGHT RAIN TENDS TO DISSIPATE
OUT WEST BEFORE REDEVELOPING IN THE EAST. NEXT RIPPLE RIDING UP
THE BOUNDARY ALSO LOOKS TO ENHANCE COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH ONLY SPOTTY PRECIP REMAINING OUT WEST LATE.
THUS AFTER EARLY LIKELY/CAT POPS FAR WEST...HAVE FOCUS OF BETTER
COVERAGE SHIFTING INTO THE FAR SOUTH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND
EVENTUALLY IN THE EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH LAGGING COLD AIR
SHOULD ALLEVIATE THE POTENTIAL FOR TOO MUCH ICING WEST WHERE
EXPECT OUTSIDE THE DEEPER VALLEYS...TEMPS WONT FALL TO FREEZING
UNTIL ALMOST DAWN IN SPOTS. LATEST HRRR BASICALLY IN LINE WITH
THIS SCENARIO SO TRIMMED BACK ON ICING/SNOW SOME BUT COULD STILL
BE ENOUGH OF AN ISSUE ESPCLY FAR WEST LATE TO KEEP THE SPS GOING.
OTRW LOWS MOSTLY UPPER 20S WESTERN MOUNTAINS...TO LOW/MID 30S
BLUE RIDGE...TO POSSIBLY ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST GIVEN CLOUDS AND WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 345 PM EST TUESDAY...
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS ON OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP AND WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE WAXING AND WANING AS WEAK WAVES MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT...BUT EXPECT A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS. THEN AS
THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND CATCHES LINGERING
SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION AND UPSLOPE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...EXPECT
TO SEE PRECIPITATION CHANGE OVER TO SNOW/MIX. DURING THE
TRANSITION THERE LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE WITH VERY LIGHT QPF. WHILE THIS IS EXPECTED TO JUST BE A
TRACE EVENT AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED SINCE IT USUALLY DOES NOT TAKE
A LOT OF ICE TO MAKE THINGS SLICK. FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE NC
MOUNTAINS...BELIEVE THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ARRIVING AS THE
PRECIPITATION IS ENDING SO DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY
GLAZING.
LINGERING FRONTAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHSIDE AND UPSLOPE ALONG
THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL BE ENDING VERY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND IT SHOULD BASICALLY BE DRY WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR
LATE JANUARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EST TUESDAY...
ON THURSDAY THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS...AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROGRESSION THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN KEEPING THE WESTERN FLANK OF
THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATION WITH THE COASTAL LOW JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. OUR LATEST FORECAST WILL REFLECT THIS CONSENSUS.
LIKEWISE...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE
ALSO REMAINS OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND MILDER AS COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY BY A FEW
DEGREES AS S-SW FLOW AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA. INCREASING CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES
EASTWARD INTO PENNSYLVANIA...ALL WHILE ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION. THIS TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. FLURRIES WILL SPILL DOWNSTREAM INTO
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. THESE WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...BUT
WITH A TREND TOWARDS DECREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATES...AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION IS THE WESTERN PART OF GREENBRIER COUNTY AND
THE NORTHERN PART OF SUMMERS COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA. HERE...AMOUNTS
IN THE ONE TO TWO INCH RANGE WILL BE MORE COMMON. WINDS WILL BE ON
THE GUSTY SIDE...WITH SOME OF THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS APPROACHING 45
MPH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT...AT BEST SOME FLURRIES WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN
GREENBRIER COUNTY AS WHAT WERE STRONG NORTHWEST UPSLOPE WINDS...SLOW
IN SPEED AND BACK MORE TO MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT. DRIER AIR
WILL ALSO BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA WITH THE APPROACH OF HIGH
PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST TUESDAY...
SATURDAY INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY...THE SYNOPTIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
TRANSITIONS INTO ONE OF ZONAL FLOW TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP WEATHER SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING 850 MB TEMPERATURES. A DRY WEEKEND IS FORECAST
ALONG WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SOME DISTINCT
DIFFERENCES...BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO
SYSTEMS TO POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION...OR APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND STALL JUST SHY OF THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ALSO...A CLOSED UPPER LOW IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH LIGHT RAIN WITHIN ITS WARM SECTOR REACHING THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL AVERAGE TEN
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1110 PM EST TUESDAY...
SWATH OF PRE-FRONTAL RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF THE
REGION LATE THIS EVENING...MAINLY BLUE RIDGE EAST BUT OVERALL OF
THE LIGHT VARIETY. LATEST HRRR MODEL SLOWLY SHIFTS THIS AXIS EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE IT SLOWS NEAR KDAN
AROUND DAWN ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE RIDES UP THE FRONT.
BEHIND THE FRONT KBLF/KLWB AND PERHAPS KBCB WILL GET INTO SOME
UPSLOPE IFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY PERIODS OF SUB-VFR VSBYS WITH SOME
DRIZZLE/FOG...AND AS TEMPERATURES FALL THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE PRECIPITATION GOES OVER TO LIGHT SNOW
OR FLURRIES LATE. SITES FURTHER EAST WILL HAVE NO PTYPE ISSUES BUT
WILL SEE CIGS LOWER INTO MVFR OVERNIGHT AS RAINFALL INCREASES IN
COVERAGE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE TO
VEER MORE NORTHERLY DURING WEDNESDAY ESPCLY OUT EAST.
EXPECT TO SEE SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST
DURING WEDNESDAY AS A MORE PREDOMINANT NW TRAJECTORY TAKES SHAPE
ALOFT ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO FILTER EAST. HOWEVER MAY TAKE UNTIL
MIDDAY OR LONGER TO BECOME VFR AROUND KDAN WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FINALLY SCATTERING OUT FROM KBCB EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD
ADVECTION LIKELY TO KEEP KBLF/KLWB SUB-VFR WITH PERHAPS IFR AT
TIMES AROUND KBLF GIVEN UPSLOPE FLOW UNTIL IMPROVING SOME LATER IN
THE DAY.
THESE LOWER CIGS MAY LINGER AT KBLF/KLWB INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE GRADUAL DRYING TAKES SHAPE ALLOWING ALL OTHER LOCATIONS TO
REMAIN PRIMARILY VFR OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN MORE IN THE WAY
OF WIDESPREAD VFR AT ALL SITES.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL SWING A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN PERIODS OF -SHSN
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER VFR EXPECTED FROM THE
BLUE RIDGE EAST WHERE WILL REMAIN UNDER DOWNSLOPING FLOW. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/MBS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JH/MBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
352 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
CURRENTLY AS OF 2 PM...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED A POTENT SHORTWAVE IN WESTERN WISCONSIN AND
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...WITH ANOTHER ONE QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS NEAR
LAKE WINNIPEG. BOTH WERE DIGGING QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD COMING DOWN
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WERE ACCOMPANYING
BOTH WAVES. DRY AIR EVIDENT ON THE 27.12Z MPX AND ABR RAOBS HAVE
KEPT THE SNOW NORTH OF WISCONSIN 29. SECOND BAND OF SNOW LOCATED
IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE THERE. SOUTHERLY
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO TIGHTENING
GRADIENT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOME MINOR DRIFTING SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND ON
THE BLUFF TOPS AND OPEN AREAS OF WESTERN WISCONSIN.
THE 27.12Z MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOUTH OF WISCONSIN 29...DRY AIR WILL WIN OUT AND IT WILL
ONLY RESULT IN SOME LOWERING OF THE CLOUDS FROM 6 TO 8K FEET TO
AROUND 3K FEET. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF
WISCONSIN 29...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ACCUMULATIONS.
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...THE LAKE WINNIPEG SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MINNESOTA
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WITH THE PRIOR SATURATION FROM THE
PREVIOUS SHORT WAVE...THERE WILL SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM
A TRACE TO A COUPLE OF TENTHS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE MODELS SHOW THAT ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. DRY
AIR ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM MAY LIMIT THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS PRECIPITATION...SO KEPT THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIQUID ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. AS A RESULT DEPENDING ON THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURE...THERE MAY BE SOME FREEZING RAIN TO CONTEND WITH.
MEANWHILE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...THERE LOOKS TO BE A WINTRY MIX
OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN...AND SLEET. DUE TO THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA...WE MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ISSUING A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THE AIR MASS WILL SATURATE
ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A
QUESTION ON HOW WARM AND DEEP WILL THE WARM LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL BE. AS A RESULT...JUST WENT WITH RAIN AND SNOW FOR NOW.
FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE 27.12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
THIS LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED DURING THIS TIME. WHILE THESE
MODELS HAVE FAIRLY DECENT TRACK AGREEMENT WITH LOW MOVING JUST
EAST OF DUBUQUE TO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. WITH THIS
TRACK...SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL FAVOR
SNOW ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF WAS JUST FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COULD BE POTENTIALLY WARM ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN IN
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. AS TYPICAL WITH LOWS MOVING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES...THE MODELS ARE QUITE VARIABLE WITH WHEN
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THE ENSEMBLES SHOW
ADDITIONAL REGIONAL VARIABILITY WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.
A FEW OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE AN OPEN WAVE AND AS A
RESULT THIS SYSTEM TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND THE AREA GETS
LITTLE SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM. MEANWHILE A FEW OF THE ECMWF MODELS
ACTUALLY HAVE A MORE WOUND UP SYSTEM AND AS A RESULT...THIS
SYSTEM WOULD TRACK WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE AREA COULD
POTENTIALLY SEE MORE RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. WITH THIS
SAID...THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF QUESTIONS WHICH NEED TO BE
ANSWERED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
BACKED OFF ON LOWER CEILINGS/LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. A DRY AIR MASS FROM
THE SURFACE TO BETWEEN 6000 AND 8000 FT AGL IS LIMITING UPSTREAM
PRECIP TO MAINLY FLURRIES/SNOW GRAINS AND THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE
AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THAT
SAID...KEPT SOME REDUCED MVFR VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW AT KRST
FROM 27.18Z TO 27.22Z AS SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS INTO THE UPPER 20 TO
LOWER 30 KT RANGE MOVE OVER EXISTING SNOW PACK.
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST MN/NORTHEAST ND AND SOUTHERN
CANADA SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS AND LATEST FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
AIRFIELDS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ/BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A POTENT
CLIPPER MOVING EAST OVER THE BOUNDARY WATERS OF MINNESOTA. A SNOW
BAND IS SLIDING EAST AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER IN A WARM ADVECTION
REGIME. VISIBILITIES WERE FALLING TO A QUARTER AND HALF MILE WITHIN
THE BAND OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN EARLY TODAY...INDICATIVE OF HEAVY
SNOW SHOWERS...BUT RADAR EVIDENCE SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGEST SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE WEAKENED SOME. THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
TO THE EAST AND IMPACT MOST OF THE REGION NORTH OF ROUTE 29. IT
COULD BRIEFLY DROP VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE AND ACCUMULATE AROUND A
HALF AN INCH. BEHIND THE BAND OF LIGHT SNOW...SCATTERED FLURRIES AND
DRIZZLE ARE OCCURRING OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AS THE CLIPPER MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...A FAIRLY POTENT YET MOISTURE-STARVED CLIPPER WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSES
BY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. BAND OF WARM ADVECTION SNOWS WILL EXIT
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF LULL
IN THE PRECIP ACTIVITY BEHIND THIS BAND BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...BUT
THEN RELATIVELY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PINWHEEL AROUND BACK INTO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. MOISTURE STRUGGLES TO SATURATE AT TIMES ABOVE -
10C...SO LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES COULD BE MIXED WITH DRIZZLE AT
TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE DURING THE EVENING
TO NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI...SO IMPACTS
FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE IS REDUCED THERE SOMEWHAT. COLDER TEMPS ALOFT
OVER N-C WI SHOULD SEE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE AS SNOW...AND ANY
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY FALL ON EXISTING SNOWFALL. SO THINK
ANY IMPACTS FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE RELATIVELY MINOR...PERHAPS
A FEW SLICK SPOTS COULD DEVELOP ON UNTREATED ROADS. ADDITIONAL SNOW
AMOUNTS COULD REACH AN INCH OR TWO IN THE SNOW BELTS...WHERE LAKE
ENHANCEMENT LATE TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE MORE PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH.
THURSDAY...THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN AN ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION...AND SERVE TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. COMBINED WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER AND FLURRY
ACTIVITY. MORE PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE SNOW
BELT OF N-C WI WHERE AN ADDITIONAL INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THINK THE
SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS WILL NOT MOVE MUCH WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION OCCURRING. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
NW FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO DISSIPATE LATE THIS
WEEK...BUT NOT BEFORE ONE MORE WEAK CLIPPER BRUSHES THE AREA FRI
NGT. AS A NEW UPR RDG BUILDS OVER THE ERN PACIFIC THIS WEEKEND...
THE MEAN FLOW BECOMES SPLIT WITH A WEAK NRN STREAM RUNNING ALONG
THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER AND A STRONGER SRN STREAM RUNNING FROM
THE SW CONUS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. A DEVELOPING SYSTEM IS FCST TO
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT NGT/SUNDAY AND BRING MIXED PCPN TO
NE WI. FOCUS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONTS TO BE A STRONG
SYSTEM PROGGED TO LIFT INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY TUE AND THE GREAT
LAKES ON WED. PLENTY OF TIME YET TO DETERMINE PCPN TYPE OR SNOW
TOTALS...BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE COMING DAYS.
ANY RESIDUAL LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS OR FLURRIES OVER N-CNTRL
WI WL END RATHER QUICKLY THU EVENING AS A RDG OF HI PRES BUILDS
INTO WI. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR A
TIME...ALTHO MODELS DO SHOW HI CLOUDS PUSHING INTO WRN WI LATE THU
NGT AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER. THESE MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FRESH SNOW WL ALLOW TEMPS TO
EASILY FALL. WL NEED TO CHOP READINGS DOWN A GOOD 3 TO 5 DEGS ON
AVERAGE OVER MOST LOCATIONS WITH NRN WI FROM ZERO TO 5 ABOVE...
CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI AROUND 10 ABOVE AND THE LAKESHORE FROM 10 TO 15.
AS THE SFC RDG SLIDES TO OUR EAST ON FRI...A SOUTHERLY WIND TO
DEVELOP ACROSS WI WITH INCREASING ISEN LIFT AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER
WHICH IS FCST TO REACH NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG BY 00Z SAT. CLOUDS WL
CONT TO THICKEN OVER NE WI THRU THE DAY WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
PCPN REACHING NRN AND PARTS OF CNTRL WI IN THE MORNING AND THE
REST OF NE WI DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PCPN TYPE SHOULD REMAIN
ALL SNOW...BUT WL HAVE TO WATCH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
AS WAA COULD MIX IN A LITTLE SLEET. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE GENERALLY
IN THE MID TO UPR 20S.
THE CLIPPER IS FCST TO MOVE EWD INTO WRN ONTARIO FRI NGT AND SWING
A CDFNT ACROSS WI IN THE PROCESS. THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING
IS PROGGED TO BE FROM NRN WI NWD...THUS HIGHER POPS OVER NRN WI
WHERE UP TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. THE QUICK-MOVING
SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM COUPLED WITH LOW SNOW RATIOS WL LIMIT SNOW
AMOUNTS. ONCE AGAIN...THERE MIGHT BE A LITTLE SLEET OR EVEN
FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN WITH THE SNOW FRI EVENING BEFORE COLDER AIR
ALOFT ARRIVES AND CHANGES PCPN TO ALL SNOW. MIN TEMPS COULD
ACTUALLY SLOWLY RISE UNTIL FROPA AND THEN HOLD SOMEWHAT STEADY TIL
DAYBREAK. LOOK FOR READINGS BY SAT MORNING TO BE INTO THE UPR 20S
NORTH...LWR TO MID 30S SOUTH. THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
LATE FRI NGT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING AND COULD END UP AS PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER LATE SAT
MORNING. THIS LEAVES THE REGION UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIE WITH WEST WINDS CONTINUING TO BRING MILD CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA. SAT MAY END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED FCST
WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 30S NORTH...UPR 30S TO LWR 40S
SOUTH.
MODELS CONT TO SEND A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TOWARD
THE WRN GREAT LAKES SAT NGT AS THE MEAN FLOW TO BE TURNING TO THE
SW. PCPN TYPE SHOULD INITIALLY BE ALL SNOW...BUT AS WARMER AIR
GETS PULLED NWD INTON WI TOWARD DAYBREAK...WL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON ANY POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF EITHER RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN OVER
SRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. PCPN TYPE WL REMAIN A CONCERN THRU
SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES RIDES NE ALONG AN EWD MOVING CDFNT.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH HOW MUCH WARM AIR WL BE OVER NE WI AS
THE PCPN FALLS...NOT TO MENTION WHERE THE HEAVIEST PCPN WL FALL.
IT APPEARS THAT THE NORTH WOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW THRU THE DAY...
WHILE RAIN WL MIX WITH THE SNOW CNTRL/FAR NE WI AND A MIX WOULD
CHANGE TO ALL RAIN E-CNTRL. AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD WI
LATER IN THE DAY BEHIND THE CDFNT...THE MIXED PCPN OVER CNTRL WI
COULD BEGIN TO SWITCH BACK TO ALL SNOW. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY TO
RANGE FROM THE LWR TO MID 30S NORTH...MID TO UPR 30S SOUTH.
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW IS FCST TO LINGER INTO SUNDAY NGT AS THIS SYSTEM
TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF PULLING AWAY FROM WI. A QUIET DAY IS
EXPECTED ON MON AS CAA TO BE IN PLAY UNDER A N-NW WIND. THERE MAY
BE SOME LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL OVER N-CNTRL WI...BUT ANY ACTIVITY
LOOKS MINOR AT THIS TIME. MAX TEMPS ON MON TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
THAN THE WEEKEND...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF
FEB.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT STORM THAT IS
PROGGED TO LIFT FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY TUE AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE NGT/WED. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...
THE TRACK OF THE 8H AND SFC LOW PRES AREAS WOULD FAVOR ALL SNOW
FOR THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. HOWEVER...ANY MINOR JOG TO THE WEST
COULD CREATE PCPN TYPE ISSUES FOR E-CNTRL WI. TUE NGT APPEARS TO
BE THE PERIOD WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOWS WOULD FALL WITH LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUING THRU WED. TOO EARLY YET TO CONTEMPLATE ACCUMULATIONS...
BUT WITH GUSTY NE...THEN NORTH WINDS EXPECTED...TUE NGT INTO WED
HAVE THE EARMARKS OF A DIFFICULT TRAVELING PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING CLIPPER MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...WILL SEE BAND OF SNOW MOVE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. VISIBILITIES COULD FALL TO 1/2SM
FOR AN HOUR AND ACCUMULATIONS COULD REACH UP TO AN INCH. EXPECT THE
WORST CONDITIONS TO IMPACT NORTHERN WISCONSIN NORTH OF ROUTE 29. THE
SNOW BAND WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 19-00Z...THEN PRECIP WILL
LIGHTEN TO FLURRIES OR LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. MORE
PERSISTENT WRAP AROUND LIGHT SNOW OR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL
LIKELY CAUSE VSBYS/CIGS TO FALL LATE TONIGHT BEFORE REBOUNDING SOME
THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1054 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A COMPACT
SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THIS
SHORTWAVE IS HELPING TO CREATE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
ACROSS THE REGION. THE BACK EDGE OF THE WIDESPREAD SNOW ACTIVITY
SEEMS TO BE MOVING EAST OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
HOWEVER...BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH SPOTTY FLURRIES EXTEND
INTO MINNESOTA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE
LIGHT SNOW/CLOUD TRENDS TONIGHT...THEN SNOW POTENTIAL WITH A FAST
MOVING CLIPPER ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...COMPACT SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT EASTERN WISCONSIN BY MID-
EVENING...WHICH WILL END THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW CHANCE ACROSS THE
EAST. FLURRIES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING
THOUGH. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST A FEW HOURS
LONGER...BUT BACKING FLOW AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES IN WILL CAUSE
TRAJECTORIES TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMS LOOK
MINOR...ONLY A TENTH OR TWO. OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL
SHIFT INTO THE STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM
THOUGH...SO WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT FOR CLEARING TO
OCCUR. THINK THE COMBO OF CLOUDS AND 5-8 KTS WIND SPEEDS WILL
PREVENT TEMPS FROM PLUMMETING DESPITE THE FRESH SNOW COVER. LOWS
COULD FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS IN THE COLD SPOTS OF N-C
WI...BUT MAINLY LOOKING AT LOW TO MID TEENS FOR TEMPS.
WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THINK WILL HAVE SOME SUN DURING
THE MORNING...BUT CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE LOOKS A LITTLE MORE BULLISH WITH PRECIP
POTENTIAL AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER...AND HAVE INCREASED CHANCES SOME.
COULD SEE A LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCH OVER THE FAR NORTH...AND LESS
THAN AN INCH NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND MAY CREATE MINOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING. HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS QUITE
DYNAMIC BUT SHORT ON MOISTURE. IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AN
INCH OR SO OF SNOW IN THE NORTH WITH LESS TO THE SOUTH. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY THURSDAY THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT.
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD
ALSO BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW IN THE NORTH AND
LESS ELSEWHERE. A WAVE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME
SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THOUGH THERE ARE SOME SUBSTANTIAL
MODEL DIFFERENCES.
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM STILL LOOKS LIKELY SOMETIME EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN ARCTIC HIGH RESIDES ACROSS CANADA WHILE SOUTHWEST UPPER
FLOW BRINGS WARM AND MOIST AIR NORTHWARD. THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST
A SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
WITH HEAVY SNOW OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND FREEZING
RAIN/SNOW/SLEET OR RAIN FURTHER EAST. WOULD EXPECT THE MODELS TO
COME UP WITH VARYING FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT THERE
SHOULD BE A BIG STORM SOMEWHERE OVER THE MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT
LAKES NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
PARTIAL CLEARING IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE SHALLOWS OUT. SATL SHOWS SOME CLEARING IN EASTERN MN
AND FAR WESTERN WI...WHICH ADDS A LITTLE CONFIDENCE TO THE
CLEARING TREND. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION DURING THE MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING ON WEDNESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE
SNOW...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN NORTH CENTRAL WI. AS THE
SNOW TAPERS OFF IN THE EVENING...THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR A FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN C/EC WI.
SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
ARRIVES WEDS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED GUSTY SFC WINDS AND LLWS TO
THE TAFS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
236 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW QUASI ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE UPSTREAM WITH THE NEAREST OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH MONTANA AND WYOMING WITH A STRONG JETSTREAM AND REGION
OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND MAIN TROUGH AXIS. AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA...CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO.
MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TODAY...AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA. A DEEP DRY LAYER IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL PRECLUDE PRECIP CHANCES. SOME GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTING A
QUICKER FROPA BY MIDDAY WHICH WOULD HAMPER DAYTIME TEMPS. A
GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ACROSS OUR
CWA BEHIND THIS FRONT. NAM/GFS SHOW 35-45KT LLJ PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIDDAY OR THIS AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHTS TO APPROXIMATELY 800MB ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA WOULD
ALLOW GUSTS AROUND 40KT TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. BL WINDS AVERAGE
28-30KT...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH MAV/LAV GUIDANCE. HRRR IS
CURRENTLY THE FASTEST ON FRONTAL TIMING AND ACTUALLY SHOWS GUSTS
AROUND 50KT THIS MORNING. CONSIDERING THE UPSTREAM WINDS
ALOFT...CURRENT SHORTWAVE POSITION...AND PROJECTED MIXING HEIGHTS
THIS SEEMS HIGH AND I AM NOT COMFORTABLE LEANING TOWARDS THAT
SOLUTION. IN ANY CASE GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH APPEAR POSSIBLE IF NOT
LIKELY. RH VALUES IN OUR SOUTHWEST COULD BE AROUND 20
PERCENT...WHICH CONSIDERING THE WINDS CERTAINLY SUPPORTS
ELEVATED/NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WILL KEEP MENTION
IN HWO.
SATURDAY NIGHT...A MUCH STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY EVENING OR OVERNIGHT WITH PROJECTED 6HR PRESSURE RISES 8
TO 12 MB BETWEEN MODELS BEHIND THIS FRONT AND MUCH BETTER.
NAM/GFS 850MB WINDS BEHIND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE AROUND
40 KT AND CONSIDERING THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT I WOULD
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING AND INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT SUPPORTS
AT LEAST A PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MAIN
PRECIP SIGNAL TIED TO 850-500 MB FRONTOGENESIS. MODELS VARY ON
TIMING/POSITION WITH MANY MODELS NOW SHIFTING BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL
FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. I MATCHED THIS TREND WITH
THE CURRENT UPDATE.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...AIR MASS WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH H85 TEMPS
AROUND 0C THROUGH THE DAY...AND 2M TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
30S OR 40S (NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS). THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR FRONT AND PRECIP CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
EAST OF OUR CWA...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW IN OUR WEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS WEAK VORTICITY
CONTINUES TO ROTATE TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AHEAD OF DEVELOPING
LARGE SCALE TROUGH. MUCH BETTER CHANCES ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT FROM OUR SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND THE UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS
ALLOWS FOR INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH SW FLOW
OVERRIDING THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. WE COULD SEE 0.5 TO 1" SNOW
ACCUMULATION SUNDAY NIGHT IN OUR SOUTHWEST BEFORE SUNRISE BASED
ON CONSENSUS QPF TOTALS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION IS
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY AND FURTHER
EAST INTO IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
FROM COLORADO INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MONDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST NEAR KANSAS CITY ON TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE H5
LOW FOR THIS UPCOMING EVENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DIFFERENCES
OCCUR WITH THE TOTAL SNOWFALL. AT THIS TIME PREFER THE MORE
CONSERVATIVE AMOUNTS FROM THE ECMWF DUE MAINLY TO THE SHORT AMOUNT
OF TIME THE SYSTEM WILL ACTUALLY BE OVER THE REGION. MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF AN ALL SNOW EVENT. SNOW SHOULD BE
ONGOING MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN TAPERS OFF BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.
MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 25 TO 30 ON TUESDAY. MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S MONDAY NIGHT
AND THEN REMAIN IN THE TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 945 PM MST THU JAN 28 2016
FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MAIN WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE THE WINDS. FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH
16Z WINDS START THE PERIOD FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10KTS OR LESS
VEERING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH 16Z. FROM 17Z-22Z WINDS
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS AT LEAST
35KTS. LOCAL WIND GUST PROGRAM...MAV AND LAMP GUIDANCE WOULD
SUGGESTS GUSTS CLOSER TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 40KTS AT KGLD. WIND
GUSTS SUBSIDE QUITE A BIT BY 23Z THEN FROM 00Z THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD SUBSIDE AND BECOME VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT SPEEDS
OF 6KTS OR LESS.
JUST SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED IN GENERAL...MAY SEE SOME
CUMULUS CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE VERY LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
255 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 255 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS TROF MOVING THROUGH WESTERN DAKOTAS.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING MONTANA/WYOMING...KNOCKING DOWN
RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS. SOME ECHOES SHOWING UP ON KUDX
RADAR...BUT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING HAVE 6-10K
CLOUD BASE. SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH BEST
Q-G FORCING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT -SHRA/-SHSN. MAY BE A FEW LOW LYING LOCATIONS
WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURE WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE BIT
OF ICING.
ANOTHER MILD DAY TODAY...BUT NOT WAS WARM AS YESTERDAY GIVING WEAK
LOW LEVEL CAA. BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS OF
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. 08Z HRRR/06Z RAP SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR A
2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS....ESPECIALLY FOR RAPID CITY
AREA. 06Z NAM IS NOT AS STRONG AS HRRR/RAP. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH...BUT IF HRRR/RAP ARE CORRECT GUSTS OF 50MPH
POSSIBLE.
DRY TONIGHT...WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE ROCKIES SATURDAY.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND LIGHT RA/SN FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 255 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...WITH WEAK
RIDGE CROSSING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S.
WEST COAST TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY INTO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM AS IT
CROSSES THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MUCH OF THE PRECIP SKIRTING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CWA...WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SD. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. AS
THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST...WESTERN RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE
ROCKIES...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 255 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
QUICK MOVING UPPER WAVE WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS INTO NORTHEASTERN WY...PUSHING INTO WESTERN SD THIS MORNING.
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE PRECIPITATION.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY
MORNING...INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE SD PLAINS BY LATE
IN THE MORNING. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
253 AM EST FRI JAN 29 2016
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A
TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD INTO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA AT THE SURFACE. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES LIGHT RETURNS
ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA.
HOWEVER...THE CLOSEST OBSERVATION SITE REPORTING PRECIPITATION IS
WELL TO THE NORTH IN WEST VIRGINIA. MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA IS
LIMITED WITH PW VALUES GENERALLY AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH. THE
BEST LIFT IS TO THE NORTH WITH THE PVA. THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED
POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS MORNING. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND THE HIGH TERRAIN ALONG THE
TENNESSEE/NORTH CAROLINA LINE. EXPECT THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR SO WITH
AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF AN INCH BEING ON THE HIGH SIDE.
THE TROUGH QUICKLY RACES OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE BRIEF WINDOW FOR
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT IS FOCUSED MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
LIFT FROM NORTHWEST FLOW COULD KEEP CLOUDS IN LONGER ACROSS
NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND DUE TO THIS EXPECT
THESE LOCATIONS WILL STAY IN THE 30S THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FURTHER TO
THE SOUTHWEST...AMPLE SUNSHINE AND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE
AREA. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL
SETUP IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IN THE 20S AND 30S.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...SHIFTING LOW LEVEL FLOW SOUTHERLY. THE RESULT WILL BE A
QUIET...DRY AND WARM SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WILL TRANSITION INTO AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE LATER HALF OF THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH THERE DOES CONTINUE TO BE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...ESPECIALLY IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF APPROACHING
WEATHER SYSTEMS. FIRST SYSTEM OF CONCERN IS A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE SHOULD ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT FOR A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS TO
MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURE PROFILE INDICATES WARM CONDITIONS FOR
BASICALLY AN ALL RAIN EVENT. MAIN SYSTEM OF CONCERN THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WILL BE A STRONGER COLD FRONT PROGGED INTO THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DEEP MOISTURE...AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
WILL AID DEVELOPMENT OF A SOLID LINE OF CONVECTION. INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED THOUGH SPEED SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY THE CONVECTION. FAVORABLE
PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF UPPER JET WILL ADD TO ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AND COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ANY STORM THAT
IS ABLE TO TAP INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT COULD BECOME
STRONG...POSSIBLY SEVERE. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG...BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE FRONT SHOULD
PULL OUT OF THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT WRAP AROUND FLOW FROM
THE ACCOMPANYING UPPER LOW SHOULD BRING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WITH THE
COOLER AIR MOVING IN...ANY LINGERING RAIN WILL EVENTUAL CHANGE OF
LIGHT SNOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 48 32 62 43 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 44 29 59 41 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 44 29 59 41 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 36 23 55 35 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
MA/MJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
859 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 852 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
UPDATED THE WIND FORECAST FOR TODAY. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE WINDS. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE THE WINDS A BIT
MORE OVER THE AREA BASED ON LATEST DATA. WRAY HAS BEGUN TO GUST TO
45 MPH. EXPECT THESE WINDS WITH THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA TODAY. LOOKS LIKE WINDS ARE ABOUT AN HOUR AHEAD
OF THE FORECAST BASED ON THE REPORT FROM WRAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE IDALIA...BURLINGTON...ST. FRANCIS...GOODLAND
AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SOUNDINGS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COLORADO COUNTIES SHOWED A
POSSIBILITY OF WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH MIXING DOWN FOR A BRIEF TIME
LATE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THESE WINDS ARE NEAR THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING THEIR FULL STRENGTH MIXING
DOWN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW QUASI ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE UPSTREAM WITH THE NEAREST OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH MONTANA AND WYOMING WITH A STRONG JETSTREAM AND REGION
OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND MAIN TROUGH AXIS. AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA...CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO.
MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TODAY...AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA. A DEEP DRY LAYER IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL PRECLUDE PRECIP CHANCES. SOME GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTING A
QUICKER FROPA BY MIDDAY WHICH WOULD HAMPER DAYTIME TEMPS. A
GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ACROSS OUR
CWA BEHIND THIS FRONT. NAM/GFS SHOW 35-45KT LLJ PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIDDAY OR THIS AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHTS TO APPROXIMATELY 800MB ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA WOULD
ALLOW GUSTS AROUND 40KT TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. BL WINDS AVERAGE
28-30KT...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH MAV/LAV GUIDANCE. HRRR IS
CURRENTLY THE FASTEST ON FRONTAL TIMING AND ACTUALLY SHOWS GUSTS
AROUND 50KT THIS MORNING. CONSIDERING THE UPSTREAM WINDS
ALOFT...CURRENT SHORTWAVE POSITION...AND PROJECTED MIXING HEIGHTS
THIS SEEMS HIGH AND I AM NOT COMFORTABLE LEANING TOWARDS THAT
SOLUTION. IN ANY CASE GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH APPEAR POSSIBLE IF NOT
LIKELY. RH VALUES IN OUR SOUTHWEST COULD BE AROUND 20
PERCENT...WHICH CONSIDERING THE WINDS CERTAINLY SUPPORTS
ELEVATED/NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WILL KEEP MENTION
IN HWO.
SATURDAY NIGHT...A MUCH STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY EVENING OR OVERNIGHT WITH PROJECTED 6HR PRESSURE RISES 8
TO 12 MB BETWEEN MODELS BEHIND THIS FRONT AND MUCH BETTER.
NAM/GFS 850MB WINDS BEHIND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE AROUND
40 KT AND CONSIDERING THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT I WOULD
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING AND INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT SUPPORTS
AT LEAST A PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MAIN
PRECIP SIGNAL TIED TO 850-500 MB FRONTOGENESIS. MODELS VARY ON
TIMING/POSITION WITH MANY MODELS NOW SHIFTING BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL
FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. I MATCHED THIS TREND WITH
THE CURRENT UPDATE.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...AIR MASS WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH H85 TEMPS
AROUND 0C THROUGH THE DAY...AND 2M TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
30S OR 40S (NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS). THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR FRONT AND PRECIP CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
EAST OF OUR CWA...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW IN OUR WEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS WEAK VORTICITY
CONTINUES TO ROTATE TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AHEAD OF DEVELOPING
LARGE SCALE TROUGH. MUCH BETTER CHANCES ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT FROM OUR SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND THE UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS
ALLOWS FOR INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH SW FLOW
OVERRIDING THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. WE COULD SEE 0.5 TO 1" SNOW
ACCUMULATION SUNDAY NIGHT IN OUR SOUTHWEST BEFORE SUNRISE BASED
ON CONSENSUS QPF TOTALS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION IS
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY AND FURTHER
EAST INTO IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
FROM COLORADO INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MONDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST NEAR KANSAS CITY ON TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE H5
LOW FOR THIS UPCOMING EVENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DIFFERENCES
OCCUR WITH THE TOTAL SNOWFALL. AT THIS TIME PREFER THE MORE
CONSERVATIVE AMOUNTS FROM THE ECMWF DUE MAINLY TO THE SHORT AMOUNT
OF TIME THE SYSTEM WILL ACTUALLY BE OVER THE REGION. MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF AN ALL SNOW EVENT. SNOW SHOULD BE
ONGOING MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN TAPERS OFF BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.
MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 25 TO 30 ON TUESDAY. MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S MONDAY NIGHT
AND THEN REMAIN IN THE TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE
STRONG WINDS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND INCREASE. THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD MODEL SUPPORT
FOR WIND GUSTING 30-40KT AT BOTH TERMINALS BY MIDDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AND I KEPT THESE CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR AT
LEAST 3HR BASED ON LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES EAST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ALLOWING
FOR STRONGER GUSTS TO DIMINISH. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND DECREASE BELOW 10KT THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
421 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW QUASI ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE UPSTREAM WITH THE NEAREST OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH MONTANA AND WYOMING WITH A STRONG JETSTREAM AND REGION
OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND MAIN TROUGH AXIS. AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA...CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO.
MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TODAY...AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA. A DEEP DRY LAYER IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL PRECLUDE PRECIP CHANCES. SOME GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTING A
QUICKER FROPA BY MIDDAY WHICH WOULD HAMPER DAYTIME TEMPS. A
GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ACROSS OUR
CWA BEHIND THIS FRONT. NAM/GFS SHOW 35-45KT LLJ PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIDDAY OR THIS AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHTS TO APPROXIMATELY 800MB ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA WOULD
ALLOW GUSTS AROUND 40KT TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. BL WINDS AVERAGE
28-30KT...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH MAV/LAV GUIDANCE. HRRR IS
CURRENTLY THE FASTEST ON FRONTAL TIMING AND ACTUALLY SHOWS GUSTS
AROUND 50KT THIS MORNING. CONSIDERING THE UPSTREAM WINDS
ALOFT...CURRENT SHORTWAVE POSITION...AND PROJECTED MIXING HEIGHTS
THIS SEEMS HIGH AND I AM NOT COMFORTABLE LEANING TOWARDS THAT
SOLUTION. IN ANY CASE GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH APPEAR POSSIBLE IF NOT
LIKELY. RH VALUES IN OUR SOUTHWEST COULD BE AROUND 20
PERCENT...WHICH CONSIDERING THE WINDS CERTAINLY SUPPORTS
ELEVATED/NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WILL KEEP MENTION
IN HWO.
SATURDAY NIGHT...A MUCH STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY EVENING OR OVERNIGHT WITH PROJECTED 6HR PRESSURE RISES 8
TO 12 MB BETWEEN MODELS BEHIND THIS FRONT AND MUCH BETTER.
NAM/GFS 850MB WINDS BEHIND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE AROUND
40 KT AND CONSIDERING THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT I WOULD
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING AND INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT SUPPORTS
AT LEAST A PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MAIN
PRECIP SIGNAL TIED TO 850-500 MB FRONTOGENESIS. MODELS VARY ON
TIMING/POSITION WITH MANY MODELS NOW SHIFTING BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL
FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. I MATCHED THIS TREND WITH
THE CURRENT UPDATE.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...AIR MASS WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH H85 TEMPS
AROUND 0C THROUGH THE DAY...AND 2M TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
30S OR 40S (NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS). THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR FRONT AND PRECIP CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
EAST OF OUR CWA...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW IN OUR WEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS WEAK VORTICITY
CONTINUES TO ROTATE TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AHEAD OF DEVELOPING
LARGE SCALE TROUGH. MUCH BETTER CHANCES ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT FROM OUR SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND THE UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS
ALLOWS FOR INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH SW FLOW
OVERRIDING THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. WE COULD SEE 0.5 TO 1" SNOW
ACCUMULATION SUNDAY NIGHT IN OUR SOUTHWEST BEFORE SUNRISE BASED
ON CONSENSUS QPF TOTALS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION IS
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY AND FURTHER
EAST INTO IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
FROM COLORADO INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MONDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST NEAR KANSAS CITY ON TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE H5
LOW FOR THIS UPCOMING EVENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DIFFERENCES
OCCUR WITH THE TOTAL SNOWFALL. AT THIS TIME PREFER THE MORE
CONSERVATIVE AMOUNTS FROM THE ECMWF DUE MAINLY TO THE SHORT AMOUNT
OF TIME THE SYSTEM WILL ACTUALLY BE OVER THE REGION. MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF AN ALL SNOW EVENT. SNOW SHOULD BE
ONGOING MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN TAPERS OFF BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.
MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 25 TO 30 ON TUESDAY. MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S MONDAY NIGHT
AND THEN REMAIN IN THE TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE
STRONG WINDS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND INCREASE. THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD MODEL SUPPORT
FOR WIND GUSTING 30-40KT AT BOTH TERMINALS BY MIDDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AND I KEPT THESE CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR AT
LEAST 3HR BASED ON LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES EAST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ALLOWING
FOR STRONGER GUSTS TO DIMINISH. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND DECREASE BELOW 10KT THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
505 AM CST FRI JAN 29 2016
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST FRI JAN 29 2016
A shortwave trough embedded in zonal mid to high level flow will
traverse the central plains today. Having come downslope, the
associated low to mid level cool surge will have modified by the
time it arrives this afternoon into western Kansas. Temperatures
in the wake of this feature early this morning were in the 30s
and 40s from southeastern Montana into eastern Wyoming and the
Nebraska panhandle, which is very mild by January standards. This
front will stall out over the the southern plains by Friday and
then get shoved back northward into far southwestern Kansas by
Saturday afternoon ahead of another progressive shortwave trough
embedded within the zonal westerlies. A much stronger shortwave
trough is still progged to move into the western United States by
Sunday and then amplify over the southern plains by Monday and
Tuesday. This system is expected to undergo strong baroclinic
development as it moves across Kansas and Oklahoma. In the wake of
this system, cold surface high pressure is expected to settle
across the plains later Tuesday and into early Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST FRI JAN 29 2016
A wind shift to the north can be expected by early afternoon.
Despite this weak frontal passage, temperatures are still expected
to reach into the mid to even upper 60s across the southern tier
of southwestern Kansas, with lower 60s in central and west central
Kansas. The NAM continues its cool bias in these situations and
doesn`t show strong enough low level warming. It also seems to
underestimate the extent of downslope warming in the wake of the
front. After the breezy north winds today this afternoon, winds
are expected to drop off by sunset, with temperatures falling back
into the upper 20s to lower 30s by Saturday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST FRI JAN 29 2016
Temperatures ought to be very mild in far southwestern Kansas on
Saturday as the aforementioned warm front surges through Elkhart
into the Liberal area by late afternoon. Temperatures there could
reach close to 70, with cooler highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s
farther northeast. The three major models seem to be coming into
reasonable agreement with the upper level storm system expected to
pass across the plains by early next week. The GFS is the
farthest north but still would result in appreciable snowfall
from Dodge City northward to Hays and Scott City. The GEM is the
farthest south, which would result in the heaviest snowfall from
Larned and Jetmore southward to the Oklahoma state line. The ECMWF
is the middle solution and would result in significant snowfall
across much of southwestern and central Kansas. If these model
solutions are close to being correct, then snow should develop
late Sunday night and persist into early Tuesday. The
precipitation could begin as rain in south central Kansas. Due to
the expected high winds, considerable blowing and drifting of snow
would be possible. Temperatures should only reach into the upper
40s to lower 50s Sunday in the wake of a cold front. Colder highs
in the 30s can be expected by Monday thanks to low cloud cover,
upslope flow and precipitation in the wake of a stronger cold
front. Tuesday should be the coldest day as snow persist in the
morning, along with continued cold advection and cloud cover
through the afternoon on the back side of the surface low. The
extent of moderation of this cold airmass will depend on how much
snow falls over western Kansas. Highs may only warm into the 30s
by next weekend if there is considerable snow cover. Overnight
lows would also be much colder over the snow cover. Although
official lows are in the teens Wednesday morning, if skies clear
with snow cover, then readings in the single digits or even close
to zero would be possible.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Saturday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 504 AM CST FRI JAN 29 2016
Gusty northwest winds will develop behind a weak cold front which
will cross southwest and north central Kansas between 15z and 21z
Friday. Based on the RAP, HRRR and 06z NAM BUFR soundings
sustained winds of near 20 knots can be expected for several hours
behind this front later this afternoon. An upper level disturbance
will cross the Central High plains during the afternoon and
evening hours. Moisture ahead of this upper level wave appears
limited and is forecast to be located at or above 12000ft AGL. The
gusty northwest winds will fall back to 10 knots or less after 00z
Saturday as a weak surface ridge axis builds into western Kansas
early tonight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 64 30 61 33 / 0 0 0 10
GCK 64 28 63 31 / 0 0 0 10
EHA 67 29 70 34 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 66 30 67 34 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 63 29 59 31 / 0 0 0 10
P28 67 35 61 38 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
430 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 255 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS TROF MOVING THROUGH WESTERN DAKOTAS.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING MONTANA/WYOMING...KNOCKING DOWN
RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS. SOME ECHOES SHOWING UP ON KUDX
RADAR...BUT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING HAVE 6-10K
CLOUD BASE. SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH BEST
Q-G FORCING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT -SHRA/-SHSN. MAY BE A FEW LOW LYING LOCATIONS
WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURE WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE BIT
OF ICING.
ANOTHER MILD DAY TODAY...BUT NOT WAS WARM AS YESTERDAY GIVING WEAK
LOW LEVEL CAA. BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS OF
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. 08Z HRRR/06Z RAP SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR A
2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS....ESPECIALLY FOR RAPID CITY
AREA. 06Z NAM IS NOT AS STRONG AS HRRR/RAP. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH...BUT IF HRRR/RAP ARE CORRECT GUSTS OF 50MPH
POSSIBLE.
DRY TONIGHT...WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE ROCKIES SATURDAY.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND LIGHT RA/SN FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 255 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...WITH WEAK
RIDGE CROSSING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S.
WEST COAST TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY INTO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM AS IT
CROSSES THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MUCH OF THE PRECIP SKIRTING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CWA...WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SD. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. AS
THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST...WESTERN RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE
ROCKIES...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
QUICK MOVING UPPER WAVE WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
INTO NORTHEASTERN WY...PUSHING INTO WESTERN SD THIS MORNING.
AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE PRECIPITATION...WITH
LOCAL IFR CEILINGS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY MORNING...INCREASING TO 20 TO
30 KNOTS ACROSS THE SD PLAINS BY LATE IN THE MORNING. WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY AFTERNOON.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
253 PM EST FRI JAN 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
20Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTHERN
STREAM JET IS ARRIVING ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/OREGON...AND
THEN STREAMING EASTWARD THROUGH A SERIES OF BROAD TROUGHS/RIDGES
THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...HIGH PLAINS...AND UPPER MIDWEST.
THE MOST DRAMATIC AMPLIFICATION ON THE ANALYSIS IS THE DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH IS NOW BEGINNING
TO MAKE ITS WAY OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE TROUGH AXIS AT OUR LATITUDE IS WELL TO OUR EAST
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS HAS ALLOWED ALL THE INCLEMENT WEATHER
THAT WAS WITH US DURING FRIDAY TO PUSH AWAY FROM THE REGION. DEEP
LAYER SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIED OUT THE COLUMN OVER OUR HEADS ALLOWED FOR A
LITTLE THING CALLED "THE SUN" TO RETURN TO OUR SKIES TODAY.
THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING SHOWS A DRAMATIC DRYING OF THE COLUMN SINCE
YESTERDAY IN RESPONSE TO THIS SUBSIDENCE. BOTH SOUNDING PROFILES
FROM FRIDAY HAD A PW VALUE OVER 1.5". THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING
DRIED OUT ALL THE WAY TO 0.22"...WITH LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION
THROUGH THE EXTENT OF THE TROP ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS PW VALUE IS
NOW ACTUALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL. QUITE A CHANGE IN ONLY 12 HOURS.
WE TOLD YOU THE DRIER WEATHER WAS COMING...AND IT HAS CERTAINLY
ARRIVED.
THE ONLY CLOUDS IN THE SKY ARE DOWN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WITHIN THE
FORCING OF A STILL STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM JET. THESE ARE ONLY HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS ACTING TO FILTER THE SUN...AND WILL HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE COLUMN
PER KMFL (MIAMI) SOUNDING THIS MORNING IS VERY VERY DRY BELOW
400MB (UNDER THIS UPPER JET).
AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE RIDGE OF 1020+MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARD
THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL ARRIVE AND PARK OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS STILL ELEVATED
FROM THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LAST NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE
DOWN AS THE RIDGE CENTER APPROACHES. BOATING CONDITIONS ACTUALLY
LOOK VERY PLEASANT FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
REST OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES...AND WILL CALL IT PARTLY
CLOUDY FURTHER SOUTH WHERE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE PASSING
OVERHEAD WITH THE UPPER JET ENERGY. HIGH TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE
60S REGION-WIDE. PERHAPS TEMPS RISE ANOTHER DEGREE OR 2 BEFORE 4
PM...BUT THEN WILL BEGIN A STEADY DECLINE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY (BY FLORIDA STANDARDS). THE HIGH CENTER
ARRIVING OVERHEAD AND DRY AIR WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. NOW...THE OVERALL AIRMASS IS NOT THAT COLD FOR
JANUARY...AND THEREFORE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...MOST SPOTS WILL FIND THEMSELVES
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S BY SUNRISE...WITH A FEW NORMALLY COLDER
RADIATIONAL COOLING SPOTS ACROSS THE NATURE COAST LIKELY DROPPING
INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY OVER
THE NATURE COAST ALSO DUE TO THE FACT THAT THESE ZONES WILL BE THE
LAST TO SEE AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN HIGH CIRRUS EXPANDING
NORTHWARD WITH TIME. SOMETIMES...ALTHOUGH HIGH ABOVE THE SURFACE
CAN DISRUPT/SLOW THE RADIATIONAL COOLING PROCESS. IF THE CIRRUS
HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH...PERHAPS A FEW PATCHES OF FROST EARLY
SATURDAY FROM PASCO COUNTY NORTHWARD. CONFIDENCE IN SOME PATCHY
FROST IS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD TO THE FORECAST GRIDS OVER LEVY
COUNTY AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER SOME VERY ISOLATED PATCHES OF FROST
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.
FOR SATURDAY...A DRY...FAIR...AND PLEASANT WINTER DAY ON TAP. IT
WILL OBVIOUSLY START OUT ON THE CHILLY SIDE. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL
WARM QUICKLY ONCE THE SUN RISES..AND ANTICIPATE MOST SPOTS TO
REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
REGION...WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AND THIS WILL HELP IT FEEL
EVEN MORE COMFORTABLE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. WILL CALL IT A MIX
OF CLOUDS AND FILTERED SUN...AS SCT-BKN BANDS OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS
STREAM OVER THE STATE ASSOCIATED WITH RENEWED SOUTHERN STREAM JET
ENERGY. THESE CIRRUS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER PORTION OF THE FORECAST OTHER THAN TO PERHAPS HOLD HIGH
TEMPS DOWN JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE ATMOSPHERIC
POTENTIAL.
ENJOY THIS MUCH DESERVED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER...THAT IS FORECAST
TO LINGER THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE WEEKEND. IF HEADED OUTDOORS
EARLY TOMORROW...A LIGHT JACKET MAY BE NEEDED FOR A FEW HOURS
SURROUNDING SUNRISE....UNTIL DIURNAL HEATING HAS SOME TIME TO MAKE
THINGS MORE COMFORTABLE.
&&
.MID/LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH FAST SPLIT FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AND BEYOND. BRIEF UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ALONG THE S.E. SEABOARD THEN
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES SUN/MON. WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES BACK INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WITH WARMING TREND
BEGINNING SUN AND ALSO INCREASING ATLANTIC LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MID WEEK WITH
STRONG SURFACE STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. WHILE LOCALLY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TUE/WED.
THE WELL REMOVED BUT ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE GULF COAST REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THEN THE E GULF AND FL
PENINSULA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MAIN DYNAMICS SHEARING OUT AND TO
THE NORTH BUT STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR 50-60 PERCENT SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGS OVER THE AREA FOR
ANOTHER 24-48 RAIN EVENT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ARRIVING DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...CONDITIONS MAY POTENTIALLY BECOME FAVORABLE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG. THIS SEA FOG EVENT IS STILL A LONG
WAY OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...HOWEVER DUE TO THE HIGH POTENTIAL
IMPACTS OF THESE FOG EVENTS ON MARINE AND COMMERCE ACTIVITIES...IT
IS PRUDENT TO BEGIN DISCUSSING THE POSSIBILITY. FORECAST TRENDS
SHOULD BE MONITORED CLOSELY BY ALL INTERESTED PARTIES OVER THE
COMING DAYS.
COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE CONDITIONS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
LATE.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD...AND BEYOND. LOOK
FOR A SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS OVER THE STATE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS STEADILY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
THIS EVENING BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION FOR SUNDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO COME AROUND
TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...A CONTINUED LIGHT GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS LOW.
THE OUTLOOK IS TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
DUE TO THE HIGH POTENTIAL IMPACTS...IT IS PRUDENT TO MENTION THAT
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO POTENTIALLY BECOME FAVORABLE
OF ANOTHER SEA FOG EVENT DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW 35 PERCENT
FOR SEVERAL HOURS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
HOWEVER...ERC VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW AND WINDS LIGHT...PREVENTING
RED FLAG CONDITIONS. A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL THEN PREVENT CRITICAL LEVELS OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL...
A FEW PATCHES OF SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND DAWN
SATURDAY MORNING...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT FOG CONCERNS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 47 69 53 73 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 45 72 54 78 / 0 0 0 10
GIF 43 72 52 77 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 47 66 51 74 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 41 71 43 76 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 51 68 57 74 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...DAVIS/MROCZKA
DECISION SUPPORT...DAVIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1237 PM EST FRI JAN 29 2016
.UPDATE...
17Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
JET IS ARRIVING ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/OREGON...AND THEN
STREAMING EASTWARD THROUGH A SERIES OF BROAD TROUGHS/RIDGES
THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...HIGH PLAINS...AND UPPER MIDWEST.
THE MOST DRAMATIC AMPLIFICATION ON THE ANALYSIS IS THE DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH IS JUST NOW
BEGINNING TO MAKE IT WAY OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE TROUGH AXIS IS WELL TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS AS ALLOWED ALL THE INCLEMENT WEATHER THAT WAS
WITH US DURING FRIDAY TO PUSH AWAY FROM THE REGION. DEEP LAYER
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIED OUT THE COLUMN OVER OUR HEADS AND IS ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE
THING CALLED "THE SUN" TO RETURN TO OUR SKIES.
THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING SHOWS A DRAMATIC DRYING OF THE COLUMN SINCE
YESTERDAY IN RESPONSE TO THIS SUBSIDENCE. BOTH SOUNDING PROFILES
ON FRIDAY HAD A PW VALUE OVER 1.5". THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING HAS
DRIED OUT ALL THE WAY TO 0.22"...WITH LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION
THROUGH THE EXTENT OF THE TROP ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS PW VALUE
IS NOW ACTUALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL. QUITE A CHANGE IN ONLY 12
HOURS. WE TOLD YOU THE DRIER WEATHER WAS COMING...AND IT HAS
CERTAINLY ARRIVED.
THE ONLY CLOUDS IN THE SKY ARE DOWN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WITHIN THE
FORCING OF A STILL STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM JET. THESE ARE ONLY HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS ACTING TO FILTER THE SUN...AND WILL HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE COLUMN
PER KMFL (MIAMI) SOUNDING THIS MORNING IS VERY VERY DRY BELOW
400MB (UNDER THIS UPPER JET).
AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE RIDGE OF 1020+MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARD
THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL ARRIVE AND PARK OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS STILL ELEVATED
FROM THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LAST NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE
DOWN AS THE RIDGE CENTER APPROACHES. BOATING CONDITIONS ACTUALLY
LOOK VERY PLEASANT FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
SO FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES...AND WILL CALL IT PARTLY SUNNY FURTHER
SOUTH WHERE MORE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH WITH
THE UPPER JET ENERGY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REACH INTO THE
60S FOR MOST SPOTS. THE COOLER TEMPS SO FAR TODAY HAVE ACTUALLY
BEEN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES...WHERE THE FILTERED SUNSHINE
HAS SLOWED THE DIURNAL TEMP RISE. DO EXPECT EVEN FORT MYERS TO
REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S BEFORE THE AFTERNOON IS THROUGH.
TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY (BY FLORIDA STANDARDS). THE HIGH CENTER
ARRIVING OVERHEAD AND DRY AIR WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. NOW...THE OVERALL AIRMASS IS NOT THAT COLD
FOR JANUARY...AND THEREFORE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FREEZING
TEMPERATURES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...MOST SPOTS WILL
FIND THEMSELVES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S BY SUNRISE...WITH A FEW
NORMALLY COLDER RADIATIONAL COOLING SPOTS ACROSS THE NATURE COAST
LIKELY DROPPING INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S. PERHAPS A FEW PATCHES OF
FROST EARLY SATURDAY FROM PASCO COUNTY NORTHWARD...AND WILL LOOK
CLOSER AT THIS WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
FOR SATURDAY...A DRY...FAIR...AND PLEASANT WINTER DAY ON TAP. IT
WILL OBVIOUSLY START OUT ON THE CHILLY SIDE. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL
WARM QUICKLY ONCE THE SUN RISES..AND ANTICIPATE MOST SPOTS TO
REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
REGION...WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AND THIS WILL HELP IT FEEL
EVEN MORE COMFORTABLE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
ENJOY THIS MUCH DESERVED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER...THAT IS FORECAST
TO LINGER THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE WEEKEND...AND BEYOND.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
BEYOND. LOOK FOR A SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS OVER THE
STATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS STEADILY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND A FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE REGION FOR SUNDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...A CONTINUED LIGHT GRADIENT WILL KEEP WIND
SPEEDS AND SEAS LOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 64 50 69 53 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 68 48 72 54 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 67 46 71 52 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 65 47 69 51 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 65 40 71 43 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 65 53 69 57 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA
DECISION SUPPORT...DAVIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1037 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
.UPDATE...
UPDATE ISSUED AT 852 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
UPDATED THE WIND FORECAST FOR TODAY. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE WINDS. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE THE WINDS A BIT
MORE OVER THE AREA BASED ON LATEST DATA. WRAY HAS BEGUN TO GUST TO
45 MPH. EXPECT THESE WINDS WITH THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
IDALIA...BURLINGTON...ST. FRANCIS...GOODLAND AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.
SOUNDINGS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COLORADO COUNTIES SHOWED A
POSSIBILITY OF WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH MIXING DOWN FOR A BRIEF TIME
LATE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THESE WINDS ARE NEAR THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING THEIR FULL STRENGTH MIXING
DOWN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW QUASI ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE UPSTREAM WITH THE NEAREST OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH MONTANA AND WYOMING WITH A STRONG JETSTREAM AND REGION
OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND MAIN TROUGH AXIS. AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA...CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO.
MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TODAY...AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA. A DEEP DRY LAYER IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL PRECLUDE PRECIP CHANCES. SOME GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTING A
QUICKER FROPA BY MIDDAY WHICH WOULD HAMPER DAYTIME TEMPS. A
GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ACROSS OUR
CWA BEHIND THIS FRONT. NAM/GFS SHOW 35-45KT LLJ PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIDDAY OR THIS AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHTS TO APPROXIMATELY 800MB ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA WOULD
ALLOW GUSTS AROUND 40KT TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. BL WINDS AVERAGE
28-30KT...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH MAV/LAV GUIDANCE. HRRR IS
CURRENTLY THE FASTEST ON FRONTAL TIMING AND ACTUALLY SHOWS GUSTS
AROUND 50KT THIS MORNING. CONSIDERING THE UPSTREAM WINDS
ALOFT...CURRENT SHORTWAVE POSITION...AND PROJECTED MIXING HEIGHTS
THIS SEEMS HIGH AND I AM NOT COMFORTABLE LEANING TOWARDS THAT
SOLUTION. IN ANY CASE GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH APPEAR POSSIBLE IF NOT
LIKELY. RH VALUES IN OUR SOUTHWEST COULD BE AROUND 20
PERCENT...WHICH CONSIDERING THE WINDS CERTAINLY SUPPORTS
ELEVATED/NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WILL KEEP MENTION
IN HWO.
SATURDAY NIGHT...A MUCH STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY EVENING OR OVERNIGHT WITH PROJECTED 6HR PRESSURE RISES 8
TO 12 MB BETWEEN MODELS BEHIND THIS FRONT AND MUCH BETTER.
NAM/GFS 850MB WINDS BEHIND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE AROUND
40 KT AND CONSIDERING THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT I WOULD
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING AND INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT SUPPORTS
AT LEAST A PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MAIN
PRECIP SIGNAL TIED TO 850-500 MB FRONTOGENESIS. MODELS VARY ON
TIMING/POSITION WITH MANY MODELS NOW SHIFTING BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL
FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. I MATCHED THIS TREND WITH
THE CURRENT UPDATE.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...AIR MASS WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH H85 TEMPS
AROUND 0C THROUGH THE DAY...AND 2M TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
30S OR 40S (NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS). THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR FRONT AND PRECIP CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
EAST OF OUR CWA...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW IN OUR WEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS WEAK VORTICITY
CONTINUES TO ROTATE TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AHEAD OF DEVELOPING
LARGE SCALE TROUGH. MUCH BETTER CHANCES ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT FROM OUR SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND THE UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS
ALLOWS FOR INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH SW FLOW
OVERRIDING THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. WE COULD SEE 0.5 TO 1" SNOW
ACCUMULATION SUNDAY NIGHT IN OUR SOUTHWEST BEFORE SUNRISE BASED
ON CONSENSUS QPF TOTALS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION IS
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY AND FURTHER
EAST INTO IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
FROM COLORADO INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MONDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST NEAR KANSAS CITY ON TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE H5
LOW FOR THIS UPCOMING EVENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DIFFERENCES
OCCUR WITH THE TOTAL SNOWFALL. AT THIS TIME PREFER THE MORE
CONSERVATIVE AMOUNTS FROM THE ECMWF DUE MAINLY TO THE SHORT AMOUNT
OF TIME THE SYSTEM WILL ACTUALLY BE OVER THE REGION. MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF AN ALL SNOW EVENT. SNOW SHOULD BE
ONGOING MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN TAPERS OFF BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.
MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 25 TO 30 ON TUESDAY. MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S MONDAY NIGHT
AND THEN REMAIN IN THE TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAFS. BLOWING DUST IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON AS LONG AS GUSTS REMAIN
ABOVE 35 KTS. SO FAR NO REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY HAVE HAVE BEEN
REPORTED. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE
AFTERNOON. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DECLINE.
ON A SIDE NOTE MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KGLD DUE TO
THE BLOWING DUST. THIS MAY ALSO HAPPEN AT KMCK DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
907 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
.UPDATE...
UPDATE ISSUED AT 852 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
UPDATED THE WIND FORECAST FOR TODAY. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE WINDS. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE THE WINDS A BIT
MORE OVER THE AREA BASED ON LATEST DATA. WRAY HAS BEGUN TO GUST TO
45 MPH. EXPECT THESE WINDS WITH THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
IDALIA...BURLINGTON...ST. FRANCIS...GOODLAND AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.
SOUNDINGS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COLORADO COUNTIES SHOWED A
POSSIBILITY OF WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH MIXING DOWN FOR A BRIEF TIME
LATE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THESE WINDS ARE NEAR THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING THEIR FULL STRENGTH MIXING
DOWN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW QUASI ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE UPSTREAM WITH THE NEAREST OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH MONTANA AND WYOMING WITH A STRONG JETSTREAM AND REGION
OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND MAIN TROUGH AXIS. AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA...CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO.
MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TODAY...AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA. A DEEP DRY LAYER IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL PRECLUDE PRECIP CHANCES. SOME GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTING A
QUICKER FROPA BY MIDDAY WHICH WOULD HAMPER DAYTIME TEMPS. A
GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ACROSS OUR
CWA BEHIND THIS FRONT. NAM/GFS SHOW 35-45KT LLJ PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIDDAY OR THIS AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHTS TO APPROXIMATELY 800MB ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA WOULD
ALLOW GUSTS AROUND 40KT TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. BL WINDS AVERAGE
28-30KT...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH MAV/LAV GUIDANCE. HRRR IS
CURRENTLY THE FASTEST ON FRONTAL TIMING AND ACTUALLY SHOWS GUSTS
AROUND 50KT THIS MORNING. CONSIDERING THE UPSTREAM WINDS
ALOFT...CURRENT SHORTWAVE POSITION...AND PROJECTED MIXING HEIGHTS
THIS SEEMS HIGH AND I AM NOT COMFORTABLE LEANING TOWARDS THAT
SOLUTION. IN ANY CASE GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH APPEAR POSSIBLE IF NOT
LIKELY. RH VALUES IN OUR SOUTHWEST COULD BE AROUND 20
PERCENT...WHICH CONSIDERING THE WINDS CERTAINLY SUPPORTS
ELEVATED/NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WILL KEEP MENTION
IN HWO.
SATURDAY NIGHT...A MUCH STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY EVENING OR OVERNIGHT WITH PROJECTED 6HR PRESSURE RISES 8
TO 12 MB BETWEEN MODELS BEHIND THIS FRONT AND MUCH BETTER.
NAM/GFS 850MB WINDS BEHIND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE AROUND
40 KT AND CONSIDERING THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT I WOULD
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING AND INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT SUPPORTS
AT LEAST A PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MAIN
PRECIP SIGNAL TIED TO 850-500 MB FRONTOGENESIS. MODELS VARY ON
TIMING/POSITION WITH MANY MODELS NOW SHIFTING BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL
FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. I MATCHED THIS TREND WITH
THE CURRENT UPDATE.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...AIR MASS WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH H85 TEMPS
AROUND 0C THROUGH THE DAY...AND 2M TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
30S OR 40S (NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS). THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR FRONT AND PRECIP CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
EAST OF OUR CWA...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW IN OUR WEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS WEAK VORTICITY
CONTINUES TO ROTATE TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AHEAD OF DEVELOPING
LARGE SCALE TROUGH. MUCH BETTER CHANCES ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT FROM OUR SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND THE UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS
ALLOWS FOR INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH SW FLOW
OVERRIDING THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. WE COULD SEE 0.5 TO 1" SNOW
ACCUMULATION SUNDAY NIGHT IN OUR SOUTHWEST BEFORE SUNRISE BASED
ON CONSENSUS QPF TOTALS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION IS
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY AND FURTHER
EAST INTO IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
FROM COLORADO INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MONDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST NEAR KANSAS CITY ON TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE H5
LOW FOR THIS UPCOMING EVENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DIFFERENCES
OCCUR WITH THE TOTAL SNOWFALL. AT THIS TIME PREFER THE MORE
CONSERVATIVE AMOUNTS FROM THE ECMWF DUE MAINLY TO THE SHORT AMOUNT
OF TIME THE SYSTEM WILL ACTUALLY BE OVER THE REGION. MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF AN ALL SNOW EVENT. SNOW SHOULD BE
ONGOING MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN TAPERS OFF BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.
MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 25 TO 30 ON TUESDAY. MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S MONDAY NIGHT
AND THEN REMAIN IN THE TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE
STRONG WINDS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND INCREASE. THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD MODEL SUPPORT
FOR WIND GUSTING 30-40KT AT BOTH TERMINALS BY MIDDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AND I KEPT THESE CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR AT
LEAST 3HR BASED ON LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES EAST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ALLOWING
FOR STRONGER GUSTS TO DIMINISH. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND DECREASE BELOW 10KT THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
418 PM EST FRI JAN 29 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST FRI JAN 29 2016
...WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...
STRONG SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY. DECENT JET
IS PRESENT OVER UPPER LAKES IN NW FLOW ALOFT. RIDGING HAS MOVED FM
CNTRL CONUS TO WESTERN GREAT LAKES BUT STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA. WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT TO THE SOUTH OF THAT SYSTEM WITH H85 TEMPS AT 12Z +10C AT ABR
AND -6C AT INL. SMALLER SHORTWAVE ON SOUTH EDGE OF TROUGH UPSTREAM
OVER DAKOTAS MOVES FM NORTHWEST MN THIS EVENING THEN ACROSS UPR
MICHIGAN AND LK SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT AND OVER QUEBEC BY MIDDAY
SATURDAY. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FOLLOWS SUIT...TRACKING ACROSS ONTARIO
AND PUSHING A WARM FRONT OVER UPPER LAKES. PRECIP FORMING OVER MN IS
TIED TO THE SHORTWAVE AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT PRECIP
TO INCREASE AS IT MOVES OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN LATE EVENING AND
OVER REST OF CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PTYPE WILL BE CONCERN AS RAP/HRRR/NAM SHOW PORTION OF WARM NOSE
ALOFT MAKES IT INTO SW UPR MICHIGAN. MAY BE WARM ENOUGH ALOFT 850-
800MB AOA +3C TO BRIEFLY TURN PRECIP TO FZRA OVER FAR WEST.
ELSEWHERE OVER WEST HALF...SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WARM LAYER
TEMPS RISE TO +1-2C. HEAVIEST QPF IS PLANNED FOR KEWEENAW. BLEND OF
SHORT TERM HIGH RES GUIDANCE POINTS TO 0.3+ INCHES OVER KEWEENAW
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER REST OF CWA...TAPERING TO LESS THAN 0.10
INCH OVER FAR SOUTH. WITH QPF HIGHEST OVER KEWEENAW AS THAT AREA IS
ALONG TRACK OF SHORTWAVE WENT WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVY FOR SNOW
AMOUNTS MAINLY 2-4 INCHES. IF HRRR OUTPUT IS CORRECT...ISOLD AMOUNTS
AROUND 5 INCHES WOULD NOT BE OUT OF QUESTION MOHAWK TO COPPER
HARBOR. OVER REST OF UPR MICHIGAN...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE 1-3
INCH RANGE. SPS WAS ISSUED TO COVERED SLIPPERY ROADS LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ON SATURDAY...WARM FRONT BLOWS THROUGH IN THE MORNING. MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS SCOURED OUT AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS. ANY PRECIP EARLY
ON WILL BE IN THE FORM OF FZDZ. UPSLOPE WEST WINDS MAY KEEP LOW
CLOUDS AND SOME DZ OVER KEWEENAW INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS...BUT
ELSEWHERE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE. TEMPS ALOFT...JUST
ALOFT AT 925-900MB ARE PRETTY WARM ON THE POSITIVE SIDE OF 0C. MIXING
TO 925MB SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS INTO LOW 40S FOR DOWNSLOPE AREAS. IF WE
CAN MIX TO 900MB...AROUND 3KFT...TEMPS MAY JUMP EVEN HIGHER. WILL ALL
DEPEND ON EXTENT OF SUNSHINE/MIXING. COULD BE BREEZY ON KEWEENAW WITH
WSW WINDS UP TO 20 MPH AND SOME HIGHER GUSTS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EST FRI JAN 29 2016
BEGINNING SAT NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL PUSH A SFC TROUGH INTO THE AREA. FORCING ASSOC WITH THE
SHORTWAVE COULD SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE CWA LATE EVENING
INTO OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY A MIX OF SNOW...RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES.
SUN/SUN NIGHT...THE GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE CONUS...RESULTING IN A
DEEPER WAVE TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS THE WRN
GREAT LAKES REGION. TO VARYING DEGREES...THE GFS HAS GENERALLY
INDICATED SUCH A SCENARIO FOR SEVERAL RUNS...AND NOW THE NAM HAS
JOINED SUIT THE LAST FEW RUNS. THE GFS IS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE NAM
BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW INTO THE AREA ALREADY ON SUN WHILE
THE NAM INDICATES A POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MAINLY SUN
NIGHT. BOTH MODELS WOULD SUPPORT A HEADLINE EVENT FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOWFALL AFFECTING MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD.
THE 12Z CANADIAN HAS NOW ALSO TRENDED DEEPER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW PER NAM AND GFS BUT THE 12Z ECMWF
REMAINS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH ONLY ADDING TO FCST UNCERTAINTY. WL
LIKELY NEED TO BUMP POPS UP A BIT TO REFLECT MODEL CONSENSUS TRENDS
OF STRONGER SYSTEM TRACKING FARTHER NORTH...BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL
DEFINITELY BE ONE TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS. IF MODELS
BEGIN TO CONVERGE ON DEEPER AND FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION...WILL LIKELY
NEED WSW HEADLINES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.
MON/MON NIGHT...AFTER ANY LINGERING PCPN ENDS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TO THE E...NW FLOW LOWERING 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO -12
TO -16C FOR AT LEAST A TIME WILL GENERATE SOME LIGHT LES UNDER A LOW
INVERSION.
TUE-WED...GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS STILL SHOWING MEANINGFUL
DIFFERENCES REGARDING TRACK OF A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
TO AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATER TUE/WED NEXT WEEK. A NUMBER
OF GFS ENSEMBLES AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES INCLUDING THE 12Z
OPERATIONAL GFS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH SFC
LOW TRACK THROUGH CENTRAL TO NORTHERN LOWER MI WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOW FOR PROBABLY AT LEAST THE CENTRAL
AND ERN COUNTIES OF UPPER MI. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 00/12Z
OPERATIONAL ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET ARE TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH AND
WEAKER WITH STORM SYSTEM...TRACKING IT THROUGH FAR SRN LOWER MI AND
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LAKE HURON WHICH WOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE SYSTEM
SNOW FARTHER SOUTH OF UPPER MI. THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY DEFINITELY
ARGUES FOR TAKING A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WHEN DETERMINING THE
POSSIBLE IMPACT OF THIS WINTER STORM FOR UPPER MI. IF THE OPERATIONAL
GFS AND THE MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS PAN OUT MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST ADVISORY TO POSSIBLE
WARNING LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS. FAIRLY FAST MOVEMENT OF STORM SYSTEM WILL
WORK TO KEEP SYSTEM FROM PRODUCING WIDESPREAD VERY HEAVY SNOW TOTALS.
IN ADDITION...UPSLOPING/POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT (850MB TEMPS FALL
FROM -10 TO -15C DURING THE ENHANCEMENT PHASE OFF THE LAKE) COULD ADD
TO SNOW TOTALS OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI. THIS WILL LIKELY BE CASE EVEN IF
THE WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH MODEL SOLUTION OF NON NCEP MODELS PAN
OUT.
THU-FRI...MODELS TREND TOWARD GENERALLY A DRIER AND COOLER PERIOD
FOR LATE NEXT WEEK WITH SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT IN WESTERLY WIND
SNOW BELTS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. MODELS HINT AT A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA WHICH MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
BUT AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING MORE THAN A DUSTING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST FRI JAN 29 2016
VFR WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS THIS AFTN THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SNOW ARCING AHEAD OF A SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT MAY AFFECT IWD AND
CMX. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS IN MINNESOTA...VSBY COULD DROP BLO 1SM
BUT WOULD BE QUITE BRIEF. AS SFC LOW MOVES TO NW ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT
A SWATH OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED JUST AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT...IN THE FORM OF SN/PL/FZRA AT IWD...SN/PL AT SAW AND MAINLY
SNOW AT CMX. IFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AS THIS PRECIP MOVES
THROUGH. LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AFTER MIXED PRECIP CHANGES BACK
TO SNOW AND AS THAT STEADY SNOW TAPERS THERE COULD BE FZDZ. THIS IS
ALSO WHEN CIGS WILL HAVE BEST CHANCE TO FALL BLO 010. ONCE THE WARM
FRONT BLOWS THROUGH...EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTN ON SAT ALONG WITH GUSTY SW-W WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST FRI JAN 29 2016
STRONG LOW TRACKING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WILL RESULT IN SOUTH WINDS 20-30 KTS...WITH GALES TO 35 KTS
OVER EAST HALF. GALE WARNING WAS ISSUED. WINDS DIMINISH SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN AS RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MAY BRING NORTH TO NORTHEAST
GALES SUN NIGHT INTO MON AND AGAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED. AT THIS TIME
BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD GALES WOULD BE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR MIZ001-003.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
LSZ266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
413 PM EST FRI JAN 29 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST FRI JAN 29 2016
...WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...
STRONG SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY. DECENT JET
IS PRESENT OVER UPPER LAKES IN NW FLOW ALOFT. RIDGING HAS MOVED FM
CNTRL CONUS TO WESTERN GREAT LAKES BUT STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA. WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT TO THE SOUTH OF THAT SYSTEM WITH H85 TEMPS AT 12Z +10C AT ABR
AND -6C AT INL. SMALLER SHORTWAVE ON SOUTH EDGE OF TROUGH UPSTREAM
OVER DAKOTAS MOVES FM NORTHWEST MN THIS EVENING THEN ACROSS UPR
MICHIGAN AND LK SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT AND OVER QUEBEC BY MIDDAY
SATURDAY. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FOLLOWS SUIT...TRACKING ACROSS ONTARIO
AND PUSHING A WARM FRONT OVER UPPER LAKES. PRECIP FORMING OVER MN IS
TIED TO THE SHORTWAVE AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT PRECIP
TO INCREASE AS IT MOVES OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN LATE EVENING AND
OVER REST OF CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PTYPE WILL BE CONCERN AS RAP/HRRR/NAM SHOW PORTION OF WARM NOSE
ALOFT MAKES IT INTO SW UPR MICHIGAN. MAY BE WARM ENOUGH ALOFT 850-
800MB AOA +3C TO BRIEFLY TURN PRECIP TO FZRA OVER FAR WEST.
ELSEWHERE OVER WEST HALF...SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WARM LAYER
TEMPS RISE TO +1-2C. HEAVIEST QPF IS PLANNED FOR KEWEENAW. BLEND OF
SHORT TERM HIGH RES GUIDANCE POINTS TO 0.3+ INCHES OVER KEWEENAW
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER REST OF CWA...TAPERING TO LESS THAN 0.10
INCH OVER FAR SOUTH. WITH QPF HIGHEST OVER KEWEENAW AS THAT AREA IS
ALONG TRACK OF SHORTWAVE WENT WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVY FOR SNOW
AMOUNTS MAINLY 2-4 INCHES. IF HRRR OUTPUT IS CORRECT...ISOLD AMOUNTS
AROUND 5 INCHES WOULD NOT BE OUT OF QUESTION MOHAWK TO COPPER
HARBOR. OVER REST OF UPR MICHIGAN...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE 1-3
INCH RANGE. SPS WAS ISSUED TO COVERED SLIPPERY ROADS LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ON SATURDAY...WARM FRONT BLOWS THROUGH IN THE MORNING. MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS SCOURED OUT AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS. ANY PRECIP EARLY
ON WILL BE IN THE FORM OF FZDZ. UPSLOPE WEST WINDS MAY KEEP LOW
CLOUDS AND SOME DZ OVER KEWEENAW INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS...BUT
ELSEWHERE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE. TEMPS ALOFT...JUST
ALOFT AT 925-900MB ARE PRETTY WARM ON THE POSITIVE SIDE OF 0C. MIXING
TO 925MB SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS INTO LOW 40S FOR DOWNSLOPE AREAS. IF WE
CAN MIX TO 900MB...AROUND 3KFT...TEMPS MAY JUMP EVEN HIGHER. WILL ALL
DEPEND ON EXTENT OF SUNSHINE/MIXING. COULD BE BREEZY ON KEWEENAW WITH
WSW WINDS UP TO 20 MPH AND SOME HIGHER GUSTS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EST FRI JAN 29 2016
BEGINNING SAT NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL PUSH A SFC TROUGH INTO THE AREA. FORCING ASSOC WITH THE
SHORTWAVE COULD SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE CWA LATE EVENING
INTO OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY A MIX OF SNOW...RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES.
SUN/SUN NIGHT...THE GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE CONUS...RESULTING IN A
DEEPER WAVE TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS THE WRN
GREAT LAKES REGION. TO VARYING DEGREES...THE GFS HAS GENERALLY
INDICATED SUCH A SCENARIO FOR SEVERAL RUNS...AND NOW THE NAM HAS
JOINED SUIT THE LAST FEW RUNS. THE GFS IS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE NAM
BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW INTO THE AREA ALREADY ON SUN WHILE
THE NAM INDICATES A POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MAINLY SUN
NIGHT. BOTH MODELS WOULD SUPPORT A HEADLINE EVENT FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOWFALL AFFECTING MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD.
THE 12Z CANADIAN HAS NOW ALSO TRENDED DEEPER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW PER NAM AND GFS BUT THE 12Z ECMWF
REMAINS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH ONLY ADDING TO FCST UNCERTAINTY. WL
LIKELY NEED TO BUMP POPS UP A BIT TO REFLECT MODEL CONSENSUS TRENDS
OF STRONGER SYSTEM TRACKING FARTHER NORTH...BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL
DEFINITELY BE ONE TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS. IF MODELS
BEGIN TO CONVERGE ON DEEPER AND FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION...WILL LIKELY
NEED WSW HEADLINES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.
MON/MON NIGHT...AFTER ANY LINGERING PCPN ENDS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TO THE E...NW FLOW LOWERING 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO -12
TO -16C FOR AT LEAST A TIME WILL GENERATE SOME LIGHT LES UNDER A LOW
INVERSION.
TUE-WED...GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS STILL SHOWING MEANINGFUL
DIFFERENCES REGARDING TRACK OF A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
TO AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATER TUE/WED NEXT WEEK. A NUMBER
OF GFS ENSEMBLES AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES INCLUDING THE 12Z
OPERATIONAL GFS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH SFC
LOW TRACK THROUGH CENTRAL TO NORTHERN LOWER MI WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOW FOR PROBABLY AT LEAST THE CENTRAL
AND ERN COUNTIES OF UPPER MI. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 00/12Z
OPERATIONAL ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET ARE TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH AND
WEAKER WITH STORM SYSTEM...TRACKING IT THROUGH FAR SRN LOWER MI AND
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY DEFINITELY
ARGUES FOR TAKING A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WHEN DETERMINING THE
POSSIBLE IMPACT OF THIS WINTER STORM FOR UPPER MI. IF THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND THE MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS PAN OUT
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST
ADVISORY TO POSSIBLE WARNING LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS. FAIRLY FAST
MOVEMENT OF STORM SYSTEM WILL WORK TO KEEP SYSTEM FROM PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD VERY HEAVY SNOW TOTALS. IN ADDITION...UPSLOPING/POSSIBLE
LAKE ENHANCEMENT (850MB TEMPS FALL FROM -10 TO -15C DURING THE
ENHANCEMENT PHASE OFF THE LAKE) COULD ADD TO SNOW TOTALS OVER NCNTRL
UPPER MI. THIS WILL LIKELY BE CASE EVEN IF THE WEAKER AND FARTHER
SOUTH MODEL SOLUTION OF NON NCEP MODELS PAN OUT.
THU-FRI...MODELS TREND TOWARD GENERALLY A DRIER AND COOLER PERIOD
FOR LATE NEXT WEEK WITH SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT IN WESTERLY WIND
SNOW BELTS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. MODELS HINT AT A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA WHICH MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
BUT AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING MORE THAN A DUSTING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST FRI JAN 29 2016
VFR WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS THIS AFTN THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SNOW ARCING AHEAD OF A SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT MAY AFFECT IWD AND
CMX. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS IN MINNESOTA...VSBY COULD DROP BLO 1SM
BUT WOULD BE QUITE BRIEF. AS SFC LOW MOVES TO NW ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT
A SWATH OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED JUST AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT...IN THE FORM OF SN/PL/FZRA AT IWD...SN/PL AT SAW AND MAINLY
SNOW AT CMX. IFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AS THIS PRECIP MOVES
THROUGH. LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AFTER MIXED PRECIP CHANGES BACK
TO SNOW AND AS THAT STEADY SNOW TAPERS THERE COULD BE FZDZ. THIS IS
ALSO WHEN CIGS WILL HAVE BEST CHANCE TO FALL BLO 010. ONCE THE WARM
FRONT BLOWS THROUGH...EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTN ON SAT ALONG WITH GUSTY SW-W WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST FRI JAN 29 2016
STRONG LOW TRACKING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WILL RESULT IN SOUTH WINDS 20-30 KTS...WITH GALES TO 35 KTS
OVER EAST HALF. GALE WARNING WAS ISSUED. WINDS DIMINISH SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN AS RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MAY BRING NORTH TO NORTHEAST
GALES SUN NIGHT INTO MON AND AGAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED. AT THIS TIME
BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD GALES WOULD BE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR MIZ001-003.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
LSZ266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
333 PM CST FRI JAN 29 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI JAN 29 2016
A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO USHER INCREASING
MOISTURE AND WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR REGION THIS EVENING. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF
INCREASING RADAR RETURNS IS CO-LOCATED WITH A CORRIDOR OF MAX
850PHA TEMPS AND PWATS EXCEEDING A HALF INCH OVER NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. THE AREA OF FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/VORT MAX AND PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD EAST OVER THE
NORTHLAND THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SHORT TERM FOCUS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE AND LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT. ANTICIPATING SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO RISE
A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE EVENING...DUE TO THE STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION. HOWEVER...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IF TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN FOR MOST AREAS...OR WILL REMAIN MIX
WITH SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FOR THE EVENING. LATEST NAMBUF SOUNDINGS
SHOW PROFILES SUGGEST A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF A WINTRY MIX LATE
TODAY...BEFORE DEEPLY SATURATING AND SUPPORTING ALL SNOW AFTER
1000PM-MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THIS TIME THE MAIN
THREAT FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS IS FROM THE TWIN PORTS...SOUTH
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR...AND EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. PRIMARILY SNOW...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH
OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD ZONES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI JAN 29 2016
.LONG TERM...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS SHAPING UP TO BE QUITE ACTIVE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND...WITH A COUPLE MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN THE BEST
AGREEMENT...BRINGING THE SURFACE LOW TO JUST SOUTH OF GREEN BAY BY
00Z MONDAY ON BOTH MODELS. THE ECMWF IS DEFINITELY THE OUTLIER WITH
THIS SYSTEM. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SE 1/2 TO 2/3 OF THE
CWA...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A WINTRY MIX FOLLOWED BY
SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. COULD SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION
DURING THAT PERIOD...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH IN NE MN...AND 1 TO 3
INCHES IN NW WI. THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND
WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY. THE BIG STORY FOR THE EXTENDED TIME
PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW AND INTENSE
WINDS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER
CONSENSUS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS OUR NW WI AREA. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LEAST
SNOW TO NW WI...WHILE THE GFS BRINGS THE MOST. WILL CONTINUE TO HIT
NW WI HARDEST...ALTHOUGH IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
BE EVEN A BIT SOUTH OF OUR CWA. STILL A BIT TOO EARLY TO TELL FOR
SURE...BUT A MAJOR WINTER STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO COME CLOSE TO
OUR CWA...IF NOT INTO A PORTION OF OUR CWA. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF WISCONSIN. GENERALLY SMALL CHANCES
OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS ON
SUNDAY...TO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CST FRI JAN 29 2016
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE NORTHLAND THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND A COUPLE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES WILL PROCEED STRONG WAA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH A STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR...WE COULD SEE A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEEING THE ICY PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION THEN DECREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST. AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN...WE WILL SEE MVFR
CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE COMMON...WITH IFR POSSIBLE AS WELL. BY
SATURDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL TAKE OVER...WITH SOME MVFR
SLIDING ALONG THE KINL AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 28 38 25 32 / 70 10 20 20
INL 29 35 22 26 / 60 10 0 10
BRD 28 38 25 31 / 70 10 10 20
HYR 26 40 28 34 / 70 10 40 50
ASX 28 43 28 34 / 70 10 30 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
958 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 255 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS TROF MOVING THROUGH WESTERN DAKOTAS.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING MONTANA/WYOMING...KNOCKING DOWN
RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS. SOME ECHOES SHOWING UP ON KUDX
RADAR...BUT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING HAVE 6-10K
CLOUD BASE. SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH BEST
Q-G FORCING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT -SHRA/-SHSN. MAY BE A FEW LOW LYING LOCATIONS
WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURE WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE BIT
OF ICING.
ANOTHER MILD DAY TODAY...BUT NOT WAS WARM AS YESTERDAY GIVING WEAK
LOW LEVEL CAA. BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS OF
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. 08Z HRRR/06Z RAP SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR A
2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS....ESPECIALLY FOR RAPID CITY
AREA. 06Z NAM IS NOT AS STRONG AS HRRR/RAP. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH...BUT IF HRRR/RAP ARE CORRECT GUSTS OF 50MPH
POSSIBLE.
DRY TONIGHT...WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE ROCKIES SATURDAY.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND LIGHT RA/SN FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 255 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...WITH WEAK
RIDGE CROSSING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S.
WEST COAST TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY INTO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM AS IT
CROSSES THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MUCH OF THE PRECIP SKIRTING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CWA...WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SD. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. AS
THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST...WESTERN RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE
ROCKIES...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 956 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2016
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL SD WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST
TO EAST. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DECREASE
THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT AND SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING.
NEXT UPPER WAVE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY AND
THE BLACK HILLS SATURDAY MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
LIGHT SNOW...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...POJORLIE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
259 PM PST FRI JAN 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong low pressure area will track through the northeast corner
of Washington into extreme north Idaho this evening spreading
widespread snow, with most of the significant accumulations
occurring over the mountains. The low will also deliver windy
conditions to southeast Washington and north central Idaho this
evening. The low will be followed by a trough of low pressure
which will settle into the region Saturday and lingers through
Monday, delivering seasonal temperatures with a chance of snow
showers. A more organized system approach again toward next
Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight... Complex forecast will continue into the evening care of
deep surface low and its associated precipitation field. As of
2pm, the center of the low was near Spokane and was heading slowly
to the northeast per isallobaric analysis. Looks like the low will
now head toward the Sandpoint/Bonner Ferry area with most of the
precipitation shield occurring to the north of it. This
precipitation can primarily be attributed to strong isentropic
ascent so the emphasis will shift into the NE corner of Washington
and the northern half of the Idaho between now and sunset.
Precipitation amounts could be impressive over a short time based
on strong ascent through the dendritic layer. So precipitation
chances in this area will be high. While that part of the forecast
will be easy, the difficult part will be the precipitation type.
Model snow levels whether from BUFKIT, 12z and 18z models are all
too high based on observations. Case in point has occurred in
Spokane through the day. None of the models had snow levels any
lower than 3000-3500` this afternoon and yet it`s snowed the
entire event at our office and the Airport. Meanwhile around 500`
lower (at Felts Field) its been mainly rain until 2pm, when the
precipitation also changed to snow. That being said, we have a
hard time trusting the 2000-2500 snow levels advertised by the
models for locations north and east of Spokane. As such we expect
to see mostly snow for locations such as Colville, Sandpoint, and
Bonners Ferry. Precipitation totals could range from 0.15-0.35
inches through this evening over these locations most of which
will fall as snow. The problem is warm road temperatures will keep
most of it from accumulating on the roads so impacts could be
minimal except on lesser traveled roads, grassy surfaces and
elevations above 2000`. It`s possible some valley locations could
see 1-3 of snow, but confidence of a widespread accumulating
snow is too low to issue a winter weather advisory. If this event
were expected to occur several hours later and benefit from sunset
we would have high confidence to issue a winter weather advisory.
Confidence is much higher for moderate snows of 3-6 occurring
over the surrounding mountains. Meanwhile drier and much less
stable air is moving in behind the front and low per the latest
water vapor loops. Showers look like they will persist near the
Cascade Crest through the evening and thus we will let the winter
weather advisory continue, however the main impacts will be more
spotty vs. widespread. Spotty snow showers will also redevelop
overnight near the Blue Mountains, and the Panhandle Mountains.
Most accumulations should be light.
The other story for tonight will be the winds behind the passing
low and trailing cold front. The surface low depth is around 1003
mbs which is still deeper than the 12z and 18z models. The HRRR is
still the closest model to reality and will be followed. This
suggests we have likely seen the peak of the winds on the Palouse
with a 47 mph gust reported at Pullman and 59 mph at Alpowa
Summit but it should remain quite breezy through early evening.
Stronger winds will move into southern portions of the Spokane and
Coeur d`Alene area shortly but wind gusts should peak around 30-35
mph, short of advisory criteria. The surface pressure gradients
will fall rapidly overnight and by 8pm, peak winds will generally
be less than 20 mph. fx
Saturday through Monday: A trough of low pressure settles over the
region cooling and destabilizing the atmosphere delivering
seasonal temperatures and increasing chances for snow showers,
especially in the mountains. The general weather pattern does not
support any major storm systems but the convective nature of the
snow showers does hint at the potential for locally moderate
impacts if showers setup during non-daylight hours. Westerly flow
accompanying the trough will shadow the lee of the Cascades for
the most part focusing a bulk of the snow shower activity across
the Idaho Panhandle and along the Cascade Crest. Consequently,
travel impacts from snow are likely over the Cascade Mtn Passes,
Lookout Pass, US 95, and a majority of the highways across
southern Shoshone County with the potential for 2-6 inches over
the 48 hour period. For much of the Basin, there is a chance for
snow showers on and off but a lot of this activity will depend on
the presence of a vort max or weak circulation which carry low
confidence at this time. Above freezing temperatures during the
afternoon and early evening also indicate that impacts will be
limited to nighttime hours. All locations should prepare for
freezing temperatures and renewed threat for black ice each
morning where moisture is present. /sb
Monday night through Friday: Localized snow chances and cool
temperatures are projected, until a broader threat of precipitation
starts in around the second half of the week. Monday night to
Wednesday the region remains in a northwest flow and at least a
couple shortwaves pass by. One passes Monday night and brings the
primary snow chances to the mountain zones. There could also be
some isolated snow showers or maybe just flurries across the
eastern third of WA, but the risk is low. Otherwise look for some
low clouds and patchy fog over the eastern Columbia Basin. Tuesday
into Tuesday night a second shortwave pushes through. There are
some model differences regarding its impacts. Some runs bring a
broader threat of snow with an inch or two of snow in the
lowlands, especially late and away from the western Columbia
Basin. However at this point that solution, from the GFS, is an
outlier and is not used for the official forecast. The ECMWF, GEM
and DGEX keep the primary snow shower chances in the mountains,
with a secondary threat expanding across southeastern WA and the
lower ID Panhandle. However there is enough evidence to keep at
slight chance over northeast WA too. By Wednesday a ridge starts
to edge in from the west. The threat of some orographic snow
showers will continue in the eastern mountains. Elsewhere look for
some lingering low clouds, again especially east.
Wednesday night the next organized system starts to approach. The
flow above the surface remains southwesterly, which will keep some
orographic snow shower chances in the northern and eastern
mountains. Meanwhile the leading warm front and overrunning snow
threat starts into the Cascades. The low level flow turns
south/southeast and expands stratus back toward the northern and
western Columbia Basin. Some light snow or flurries could also be
squeezed out. Thursday, however, is when the broader precipitation
arrives. Models diverge of how quickly it expands but chances
generally rise through the day and peaking Thursday evening with
the incoming cold front. Temperatures support largely snow, except
perhaps toward the deeper Columbia Basin/L-C Valley where rain or
a rain/snow mix is possible. So impacts from snow accumulations
are possible for some. However these impacts may be limited during
the daylight hours as surface temperatures/road temperatures may
inhibit or hold back accumulations. Additionally the system will
bring another increase in winds, especially late in the day with
the passing cold front. By Friday the region returns to a drier
northwest flow with the primary snow chances retreating to the
mountains. /J. Cote
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Tough aviation forecasts here based on widespread
precipitation and mixed precipitation types. We expect to see
periods of MVFR conditions and brief IFR conditions as long as the
precipitation shield covers the area. For EAT we expect IFR conditions
to continue through 21z with snow and perhaps some brief rain.
For MWH look for continued MVFR conditions with rain followed by
a similar improvement to EAT. For GEG SFF COE the forecast is much
trickier through 00z. Snow is likely for the GEG while the other
two sites will see rain or a rain snow mix. Cigs will rapidly vary
rapidly as will the vsbys. For the snow periods we expect to
primarily see IFR conditions based on visibilities. Conditions
should improve rapidly once the precipitation ends between 00z-02z
with gusty southwest winds of 30-35kts possible. Now onto LWS and
PUW. The precip here will primarily be rain while cigs vary from
MVFR to VFR. Whats more noteworthy will be a developing wind
situation due to a passing low pressure system. We expect to see
wind gusts from 35-40 kts possible between 22z-00z with the wind
direction turning from east to a sharp turn to the southwest.
Hopefully the cigs will improve with the wind shift but Pullman
can often develop low clouds in these situation. Once we get
beyond 00z the conditions improve for most of the TAF sites. We
should see some mvfr stratus redevelop overnight from GEG-COE but
confidence is low. fx
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 29 37 25 35 25 34 / 30 20 20 20 20 20
Coeur d`Alene 31 36 27 35 26 33 / 50 40 20 40 20 20
Pullman 32 38 28 36 25 35 / 50 40 20 20 20 40
Lewiston 36 45 33 42 31 40 / 40 40 20 20 20 40
Colville 30 35 27 35 25 33 / 50 20 10 30 20 20
Sandpoint 32 35 28 34 27 32 / 100 40 30 50 30 20
Kellogg 30 33 26 32 25 31 / 90 50 40 50 30 40
Moses Lake 30 42 27 39 26 38 / 10 10 10 10 10 10
Wenatchee 31 39 29 38 28 36 / 10 10 10 10 10 10
Omak 26 35 24 34 23 32 / 10 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory until 8 PM PST this evening for Idaho Palouse-
Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area.
WA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM PST this evening for Lower Garfield and
Asotin Counties-Northeast Blue Mountains-Washington Palouse.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for East
Slopes Northern Cascades.
&&
$$