Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/28/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
357 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. BEHIND THIS
COLD FRONT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS WITH MAINLY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REST
OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGS SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 355 PM EST...MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH MILD TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JANUARY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE TOPPING OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS WITH LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REST OF THE REGION INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AS MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR INDICATE SOME PATCHY SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE ONLY GONE WITH CHANCE
AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION DUE TO A LACK OF
EXPECTED AREAL COVERAGE...BUT HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE/LAKE
EFFECT PROCESSES WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE.
AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP THIS EVENING RAIN SHOWERS WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE
PRECIPITATION OCCURS...WITH A FEW TENTHS OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH ANY LINGERING SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
DISSIPATING BY LATE EVENING. LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND WESTERN HAMILTON
COUNTIES...WHERE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREATER
CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW
30S. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WINDS
SHIFT FROM SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY TO MORE OF A WESTERLY
DIRECTION...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE CONTINUED LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS INITIALLY THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...DRIFTING SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN MID MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS. SOME FLURRIES MAY EXTEND FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD INTO THE
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL
REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TACONICS...GREENS
AND BERKSHIRES DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN VALLEY AREAS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW TENTHS/PERHAPS UP TO AN INCH AT THE VERY WORST ACROSS UPSLOPE-
FAVORED REGIONS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DESPITE ANOTHER RELATIVELY MILD DAY...IT WILL FEEL ON THE CHILLIER
SIDE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20-35 MPH...ESPECIALLY CHANNELED DOWN THE
MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MID 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS VALLEY
AREAS.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT TOTAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...4
INCHES...ALTHOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN
HERKIMER COUNTY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...TRENDING PRETTY QUIET
WEATHER-WISE DURING THIS PERIOD AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WIND
DOWN WEDNESDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RIDGES ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM MAY IMPACT WESTERN REGIONS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS
SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND WILL BE WEAKENING THE CLOSER
IT GETS TO THE REGION.
LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
LEVELS...GENERALLY IN THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR A FEW
LOW 20S IN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER
30S WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE AS A MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WILL RESULT
IN A NUMBER OF FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS IMPACTING OUR REGION
ON AVERAGE EVERY 24-36 HOURS. HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA AS THERE WILL BE
SOME LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL AS MOST OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH ALLOWING A SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO MOVE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF EACH
SYSTEM.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY...UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S ON SATURDAY...UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ON SUNDAY AND MID 30S TO
MID 40S ON MONDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ON SATURDAY NIGHT...AND IN
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z WEDNESDAY. A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION THIS
EVENING WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT TUESDAY
MORNING. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AND
REMAIN MAINLY BKN-OVC040-050 FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ANY PCPN IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AT 7-14 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 19
KTS AT KALB THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IN
THE WAKE OF THE FIRST FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING AT 5-10 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 16 KTS AT KALB AND KPSF. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO
THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY
MORNING AT 10-14 KTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 28 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHSN.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OR HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE
EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT RANGING FROM A TENTH TO LESS THAN
HALF AN INCH. ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER
OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT ACROSS THE HSA.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...IRL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
633 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES MODERATE AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT TUESDAY THAT WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY ... THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FOCUS IS MORE IMPORTANTLY UPON THE
OFFSHORE STORM WHICH IF COMBINING WITH AN ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE
OUT OF THE E GREAT LAKES COULD USHER SOME ADVERSE WEATHER TO OUR
REGION. PERHAPS SOME SHOWERY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND ... THEN
LOOKING MILD AND WET INTO THE COMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE ... NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BEGIN BEFORE DAYBREAK
THOUGH NOT LASTING VERY LONG. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE WELL
ABOVE-NORMAL...WITH SOME READINGS APPROACHING 50 DEGREES OVER THE
E-HALF OF S NEW ENGLAND. FARTHER W...INCREASING CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE
EARLIER AND LIMIT THE WARM-UP... WITH READINGS MORE 38-45 DEGREES.
STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE THIS MORNING. THE 26/00Z GUIDANCE STILL HINTS AT A BRIEF
WINDOW OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING...AS LONG AS LOWER CLOUDS
DEVELOP FAST ENOUGH. BOTH 00Z GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS HINT THE AIR
MIGHT BE A TOUCH TOO DRY FOR THIS TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN. WILL
CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE HRRR AND RAP THIS MORNING FOR ADDITIONAL
CLUES.
GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY NATURE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURRING
THIS MORNING...WILL ONLY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
COVER THIS POSSIBILITY FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN MA.
INCREASING HUMIDITY IN STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY DUE TO THE POTENT JET CONVERGENCE FOCUSED ACROSS
S/SE-PORTIONS OF S NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE APPROACHING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE...BUT SHOULD NOT QUITE GET HERE DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SHOWER THREAT WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE THIS EVENING AS
A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. MAJORITY OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CT/RI AND SE MA THIS EVENING. NOT CONVINCED SHOWERS WILL BE ALL
THAT WIDESPREAD...DESPITE THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH THE COLD
FRONT. ANY SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT WITH
THE FRONT. MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN QUICKLY FROM THE NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE COLDER AIR WILL NOT BE AS QUICK. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND OUR NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS FOR LATE
JANUARY.
WEDNESDAY...
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
IT WILL ALSO MEAN TEMPERATURES WHICH DO NOT RISE MUCH FROM THE
MORNING LOW. SHOULD BE MAINLY A DRY DAY...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT A STRAY FLURRY OR TWO ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES
AS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY SPILL INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS ...
- QUIET DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
- MONITORING A PASSING SET OF STORM SYSTEMS THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
- CLIPPER DISTURBANCE WITH SHOWERY WEATHER SATURDAY AND OVERNIGHT
- LOOKING QUIET AND DRY FOR SUNDAY
- A SERIES OF INSIDE-RUNNER DISTURBANCES FOR NEXT WEEK
*/ OVERVIEW ...
WARMER-WETTER PATTERN INDICATIONS IN THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. DECENT
SIGNAL OF THE STRATOSPHERIC POLAR VORTEX SHIFTING TO THE OPPOSITE-
HALF OF THE N HEMISPHERE. STRONGLY +NAO/+AO TREND WITH A +PNA TREND
RETAINED. WEAK MJO IN THE 3/4 STATE. NO FORECAST INDICATIONS OF DOWN-
STREAM BLOCKING.
OVERALL AN UNFAVORABLE PATTERN FOR ANY INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR S.
WITH NEIGHBORING SEA-SURFACE-TEMPERATURES ABOVE-NORMAL ... AND
PERHAPS A SHIFT IN THE STORM TRACK TO EITHER THE SW-CONUS OR MORE
ZONAL ... BETTER AREAS OF BAROCLINICITY SEEMINGLY SHIFT N/W TOWARDS
THE E GREAT LAKES / ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY ... ESPECIALLY SO WITH
THE EXPECTATION OF A MELTING SNOW PACK ... AS THERE IS A GREATER
POTENTIAL OF WARMER AIR ENCROACHING N.
ENSEMBLE MEAN PREFERENCE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. AN ALTERATION
IN THE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH THE STORM-TRACK SHIFTING
MORE TOWARDS INSIDE-RUNNERS.
*/ DISCUSSION ...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ...
LESSENING NW-FLOW AS WINDS VEER S BENEATH AN INCREASING INFLUENCE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. AIRMASS MODERATING ALOFT ... SHOULD IT REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR ESPECIALLY THURSDAY IT IS MORE LIKELY WE WOULD END UP WARMER
THAN MODEL 2M TEMPERATURES ADVERTISE WITH HIGHS INTO THE 40S ...
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE LIKELIHOOD OF BARE-GROUND ... THE LATE-
JANUARY SUN ANGLE ... AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW TOWARDS THE LATER-
HALF OF THE DAY. AGAIN ... CLOUD DEPENDENT.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ...
26.0Z OPERATIONAL GFS / EC AND 26.0Z GEFS SIGNAL A SWING AND A MISS
AS TO A POTENTIAL OFFSHORE STORM AS N/S-STREAMS PHASE FURTHER DOWN-
STREAM. THOUGH SOME HESITATION EVALUATING THE 25.12Z ECENS. QUITE A
SPREAD AMONG ECENS MEMBERS IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERS IN COMPARISON THE AFOREMENTIONED SUITE OF 26.0Z GUIDANCE.
NOT READY TO GO ALL IN AS THERE IS SOME CONCERN WITH THE S-STREAM
DISTURBANCE BEING CAPTURED TO A DEGREE BENEATH LOWERING HEIGHTS
PARENT TO A NEGATIVELY-TILTING H5 TROUGH. THINKING WE ARE NOT OUT OF
THE WOODS YET. SOME ECENS PROBABILISTIC INDICATIONS OF POTENTIAL
IMPACTS TO S/E-PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND WITH RAIN ALONG THE COASTS
AND MIXED-PRECIPITATION TYPES OVER NEIGHBORING S/E INTERIOR. AND AS
PRIOR FORECASTERS HAVE ALLUDED TO ... THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
INVERTED TROUGH LINKING THE TWO DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE NE-CONUS
PRIOR TO PHASING DOWNSTREAM /THE 26.0Z EC IS PICKING UP ON THIS TO
SOME DEGREE ACROSS E-MAINE/.
KEEP IN MIND WE ARE STILL 3 TO 4 DAYS OUT FROM THE FORECAST TIME-
FRAME AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY HAS NOT YET BEEN WELL-SAMPLED BY LAND-
BASED OBSERVATIONAL NETWORKS. LIKE TO EXERCISE SOME LEVEL OF
CAUTION BY KEEPING WITH A LOW RISK OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
AT A MINIMUM ... WILL SEE LIGHT PRECIPITATION OUTCOMES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SWEEPING N-STREAM DISTURBANCE AND ACCOMPANYING CONTINENTAL-
MARITIME AIRMASS WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. MAY NEED TO
MONITOR FOR THE PRESENCE OF ICE WITHIN THE COLUMN. IN THIS SCENARIO
MOST OF THE FOCUS WOULD BE ALONG THE W-SLOPES OF HIGH TERRAIN.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ALONG WITH PREVAILING S-WINDS. MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND YIELDING WARMER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ...
THOUGH NOT APPEARING RECORD BREAKING JUST YET. CLIPPER-LOW SWEEPS IN
TOWARDS THE LATER-HALF OF THE DAY AND EXITING OVERNIGHT. RAIN / SNOW
OUTCOMES POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATER FOCUS ACROSS THE W-SLOPES OF HIGH
TERRAIN.
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK ...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SERIES OF INSIDE-RUNNER STORM SYSTEMS
WITH ONE DURING THE EARLY WEEK AND ANOTHER AROUND MIDWEEK. A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
AMONG ENSEMBLE / OPERATIONAL MEMBER FORECASTS. KEEPING WITH ENSEMBLE
MEANS ... DOES APPEAR THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM WILL PACK A GREATER PUNCH
AS IT EVOLVES OUT OF THE SW-CONUS. PER TRENDS AND EVALUATING CIPS
ANALOGS ... THERE DOES APPEAR THE GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOWERING CIGS W TO E WITH A MIX LOW-END VFR / MVFR. ACCOMPANYING
SCT -SHRA THE BETTER CHANCE OF WHICH WILL BE ACROSS S/SE TERMINALS
OF S NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS THE LATER-HALF OF THE DAY. IN ADDITION
WILL ALSO SEE LLWS OUT OF THE SW AT 2 KFT AGL 35 TO 45 KTS WHEREVER
WINDS ARE LIGHT AT THE SURFACE
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW-END VFR MIXED WITH MVFR. ISOLATED IFR MAINLY OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN. CONTINUED SCT -SHRA FOR S/SE-TERMINALS. CONTINUED SW-FLOW
WITH A LESSENING RISK OF LLWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEGINNING TO
LIFT AND IMPROVE BY MORNING AS WINDS BACK OUT OF THE W.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. BREEZY W-WINDS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT / ...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LIGHT W-WINDS VEERING S INCREASING LATE THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ... MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW-END VFR / MVFR CIGS. FOCUS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND TOWARDS S/E-
TERMINALS OF S NEW ENGLAND. RAIN / SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION WITH SW-FLOW BACKING NW.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ... MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR POSSIBLE AS SOME SHOWERY
WEATHER CROSS THE REGION. W-WINDS VEERING SW.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
SW WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS. EXPECTING SW GUSTS UP TO 30 KT DEVELOPING TUE
MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. A MODERATE RISK FOR GALES OVER THE EASTERN WATERS
CONTINUES...SO GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THERE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS. VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...WNW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. ROUGH SEAS WILL TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT / ...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LIGHT W-WINDS VEERING S INCREASING LATE THURSDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS OVER THE E-WATERS. WAVES DIMINISHING INITIALLY FROM EARLIER
ACTIVITY ... HOLDING AROUND 4 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ... MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE E GREAT
LAKES WILL LEAD TO A POTENTIAL MASHUP OF WEATHER OUTCOMES OVER THE
WATERS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. PERHAPS SOME VISIBILITY ISSUES
BUT AS THE STORM EXITS ANTICIPATE W/NW-WINDS TO RAMP UP WITH GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS BUILDING SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.
GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE. LOW RISK PRESENTLY FOR GALES.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ... MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS VEERING SW AHEAD OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. GUSTS OVERALL FORECAST UP TO 20 KTS. THIS WILL KEEP
SEAS FROM DIMINISHING QUICKLY. WILL HOLD WAVE HEIGHTS 4 TO 5 FEET
OVER A MAJORITY OF TIME ON THE OUTER WATERS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
251-255-256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...BELK/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...BELK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
255 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES MODERATE AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT TUESDAY THAT WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY ... THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FOCUS IS MORE IMPORTANTLY UPON THE
OFFSHORE STORM WHICH IF COMBINING WITH AN ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE
OUT OF THE E GREAT LAKES COULD USHER SOME ADVERSE WEATHER TO OUR
REGION. PERHAPS SOME SHOWERY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND ... THEN
LOOKING MILD AND WET INTO THE COMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BEGIN BEFORE DAYBREAK.
IT WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG THOUGH...ONLY TODAY. EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME READINGS
APPROACHING 50 DEGREES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. FARTHER WEST...INCREASING CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE EARLIER AND
LIMIT THE WARMUP...WITH READINGS MORE 38-45 DEGREES.
STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE THIS MORNING. THE 26/00Z GUIDANCE STILL HINTS AT A BRIEF
WINDOW OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING...AS LONG AS LOWER CLOUDS
DEVELOP FAST ENOUGH. BOTH 00Z GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS HINT THE AIR
MIGHT BE A TOUCH TOO DRY FOR THIS TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN. WILL
CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE HRRR AND RAP THIS MORNING FOR ADDITIONAL
CLUES.
GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY NATURE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURRING
THIS MORNING...WILL ONLY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
COVER THIS POSSIBILITY FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN MA.
INCREASING HUMIDITY IN STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY DUE TO THE POTENT JET CONVERGENCE. A COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT SHOULD NOT QUITE
GET HERE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SHOWER THREAT WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE THIS EVENING AS
A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. MAJORITY OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CT/RI AND SE MA THIS EVENING. NOT CONVINCED SHOWERS WILL BE ALL
THAT WIDESPREAD...DESPITE THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH THE COLD
FRONT. ANY SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT WITH
THE FRONT. MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN QUICKLY FROM THE NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE COLDER AIR WILL NOT BE AS QUICK. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND OUR NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS FOR LATE
JANUARY.
WEDNESDAY...
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
IT WILL ALSO MEAN TEMPERATURES WHICH DO NOT RISE MUCH FROM THE
MORNING LOW. SHOULD BE MAINLY A DRY DAY...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT A STRAY FLURRY OR TWO ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES
AS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY SPILL INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS ...
- QUIET DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
- MONITORING A PASSING SET OF STORM SYSTEMS THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
- CLIPPER DISTURBANCE WITH SHOWERY WEATHER SATURDAY AND OVERNIGHT
- LOOKING QUIET AND DRY FOR SUNDAY
- A SERIES OF INSIDE-RUNNER DISTURBANCES FOR NEXT WEEK
*/ OVERVIEW ...
WARMER-WETTER PATTERN INDICATIONS IN THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. DECENT
SIGNAL OF THE STRATOSPHERIC POLAR VORTEX SHIFTING TO THE OPPOSITE-
HALF OF THE N HEMISPHERE. STRONGLY +NAO/+AO TREND WITH A +PNA TREND
RETAINED. WEAK MJO IN THE 3/4 STATE. NO FORECAST INDICATIONS OF DOWN-
STREAM BLOCKING.
OVERALL AN UNFAVORABLE PATTERN FOR ANY INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR S.
WITH NEIGHBORING SEA-SURFACE-TEMPERATURES ABOVE-NORMAL ... AND
PERHAPS A SHIFT IN THE STORM TRACK TO EITHER THE SW-CONUS OR MORE
ZONAL ... BETTER AREAS OF BAROCLINICITY SEEMINGLY SHIFT N/W TOWARDS
THE E GREAT LAKES / ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY ... ESPECIALLY SO WITH
THE EXPECTATION OF A MELTING SNOW PACK ... AS THERE IS A GREATER
POTENTIAL OF WARMER AIR ENCROACHING N.
ENSEMBLE MEAN PREFERENCE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. AN ALTERATION
IN THE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH THE STORM-TRACK SHIFTING
MORE TOWARDS INSIDE-RUNNERS.
*/ DISCUSSION ...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ...
LESSENING NW-FLOW AS WINDS VEER S BENEATH AN INCREASING INFLUENCE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. AIRMASS MODERATING ALOFT ... SHOULD IT REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR ESPECIALLY THURSDAY IT IS MORE LIKELY WE WOULD END UP WARMER
THAN MODEL 2M TEMPERATURES ADVERTISE WITH HIGHS INTO THE 40S ...
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE LIKELIHOOD OF BARE-GROUND ... THE LATE-
JANUARY SUN ANGLE ... AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW TOWARDS THE LATER-
HALF OF THE DAY. AGAIN ... CLOUD DEPENDENT.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ...
26.0Z OPERATIONAL GFS / EC AND 26.0Z GEFS SIGNAL A SWING AND A MISS
AS TO A POTENTIAL OFFSHORE STORM AS N/S-STREAMS PHASE FURTHER DOWN-
STREAM. THOUGH SOME HESITATION EVALUATING THE 25.12Z ECENS. QUITE A
SPREAD AMONG ECENS MEMBERS IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERS IN COMPARISON THE AFOREMENTIONED SUITE OF 26.0Z GUIDANCE.
NOT READY TO GO ALL IN AS THERE IS SOME CONCERN WITH THE S-STREAM
DISTURBANCE BEING CAPTURED TO A DEGREE BENEATH LOWERING HEIGHTS
PARENT TO A NEGATIVELY-TILTING H5 TROUGH. THINKING WE ARE NOT OUT OF
THE WOODS YET. SOME ECENS PROBABILISTIC INDICATIONS OF POTENTIAL
IMPACTS TO S/E-PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND WITH RAIN ALONG THE COASTS
AND MIXED-PRECIPITATION TYPES OVER NEIGHBORING S/E INTERIOR. AND AS
PRIOR FORECASTERS HAVE ALLUDED TO ... THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
INVERTED TROUGH LINKING THE TWO DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE NE-CONUS
PRIOR TO PHASING DOWNSTREAM /THE 26.0Z EC IS PICKING UP ON THIS TO
SOME DEGREE ACROSS E-MAINE/.
KEEP IN MIND WE ARE STILL 3 TO 4 DAYS OUT FROM THE FORECAST TIME-
FRAME AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY HAS NOT YET BEEN WELL-SAMPLED BY LAND-
BASED OBSERVATIONAL NETWORKS. LIKE TO EXERCISE SOME LEVEL OF
CAUTION BY KEEPING WITH A LOW RISK OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
AT A MINIMUM ... WILL SEE LIGHT PRECIPITATION OUTCOMES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SWEEPING N-STREAM DISTURBANCE AND ACCOMPANYING CONTINENTAL-
MARITIME AIRMASS WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. MAY NEED TO
MONITOR FOR THE PRESENCE OF ICE WITHIN THE COLUMN. IN THIS SCENARIO
MOST OF THE FOCUS WOULD BE ALONG THE W-SLOPES OF HIGH TERRAIN.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ALONG WITH PREVAILING S-WINDS. MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND YIELDING WARMER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ...
THOUGH NOT APPEARING RECORD BREAKING JUST YET. CLIPPER-LOW SWEEPS IN
TOWARDS THE LATER-HALF OF THE DAY AND EXITING OVERNIGHT. RAIN / SNOW
OUTCOMES POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATER FOCUS ACROSS THE W-SLOPES OF HIGH
TERRAIN.
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK ...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SERIES OF INSIDE-RUNNER STORM SYSTEMS
WITH ONE DURING THE EARLY WEEK AND ANOTHER AROUND MIDWEEK. A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
AMONG ENSEMBLE / OPERATIONAL MEMBER FORECASTS. KEEPING WITH ENSEMBLE
MEANS ... DOES APPEAR THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM WILL PACK A GREATER PUNCH
AS IT EVOLVES OUT OF THE SW-CONUS. PER TRENDS AND EVALUATING CIPS
ANALOGS ... THERE DOES APPEAR THE GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOWERING VFR CIGS FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL/W MA AND N CT THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE. STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO AREAS OF LLWS...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR WITH LOCALIZED IFR
CIGS POSSIBLE. SCT SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT / ...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LIGHT W-WINDS VEERING S INCREASING LATE THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ... MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW-END VFR / MVFR CIGS. FOCUS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND TOWARDS S/E-
TERMINALS OF S NEW ENGLAND. RAIN / SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION WITH SW-FLOW BACKING NW.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ... MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR POSSIBLE AS SOME SHOWERY
WEATHER CROSS THE REGION. W-WINDS VEERING SW.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
SW WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS. EXPECTING SW GUSTS UP TO 30 KT DEVELOPING TUE
MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. A MODERATE RISK FOR GALES OVER THE EASTERN WATERS
CONTINUES...SO GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THERE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS. VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...WNW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. ROUGH SEAS WILL TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT / ...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LIGHT W-WINDS VEERING S INCREASING LATE THURSDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS OVER THE E-WATERS. WAVES DIMINISHING INITIALLY FROM EARLIER
ACTIVITY ... HOLDING AROUND 4 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ... MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE E GREAT
LAKES WILL LEAD TO A POTENTIAL MASHUP OF WEATHER OUTCOMES OVER THE
WATERS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. PERHAPS SOME VISIBILITY ISSUES
BUT AS THE STORM EXITS ANTICIPATE W/NW-WINDS TO RAMP UP WITH GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS BUILDING SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.
GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE. LOW RISK PRESENTLY FOR GALES.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ... MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS VEERING SW AHEAD OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. GUSTS OVERALL FORECAST UP TO 20 KTS. THIS WILL KEEP
SEAS FROM DIMINISHING QUICKLY. WILL HOLD WAVE HEIGHTS 4 TO 5 FEET
OVER A MAJORITY OF TIME ON THE OUTER WATERS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ250-254.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251-255-
256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...BELK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
156 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES MODERATE AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT TUESDAY THAT WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AN OCEAN STORM WILL RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY PASSING SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. AT THIS TIME...ODDS FAVOR MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW...BUT
A LARGER/MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT YET. AFTER A
SEASONABLY COOL DAY ON SATURDAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH JUST A FEW PASSING RAIN SHOWERS AT
TIMES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BEGIN BEFORE DAYBREAK.
IT WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG THOUGH...ONLY TODAY. EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME READINGS
APPROACHING 50 DEGREES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. FARTHER WEST...INCREASING CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE EARLIER AND
LIMIT THE WARMUP...WITH READINGS MORE 38-45 DEGREES.
STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE THIS MORNING. THE 26/00Z GUIDANCE STILL HINTS AT A BRIEF
WINDOW OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING...AS LONG AS LOWER CLOUDS
DEVELOP FAST ENOUGH. BOTH 00Z GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS HINT THE AIR
MIGHT BE A TOUCH TOO DRY FOR THIS TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN. WILL
CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE HRRR AND RAP THIS MORNING FOR ADDITIONAL
CLUES.
GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY NATURE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURRING
THIS MORNING...WILL ONLY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
COVER THIS POSSIBILITY FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN MA.
INCREASING HUMIDITY IN STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY DUE TO THE POTENT JET CONVERGENCE. A COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT SHOULD NOT QUITE
GET HERE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SHOWER THREAT WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE THIS EVENING AS
A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. MAJORITY OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CT/RI AND SE MA THIS EVENING. NOT CONVINCED SHOWERS WILL BE ALL
THAT WIDESPREAD...DESPITE THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH THE COLD
FRONT. ANY SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT WITH
THE FRONT. MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN QUICKLY FROM THE NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE COLDER AIR WILL NOT BE AS QUICK. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND OUR NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS FOR LATE
JANUARY.
WEDNESDAY...
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
IT WILL ALSO MEAN TEMPERATURES WHICH DO NOT RISE MUCH FROM THE
MORNING LOW. SHOULD BE MAINLY A DRY DAY...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT A STRAY FLURRY OR TWO ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES
AS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY SPILL INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* THU - DRY BUT TRENDING COOLER
* THU NGT/FRI - OCEAN STORM PROBABLY DELIVERS A GLANCING BLOW BUT
STILL A LOW RISK FOR A LARGER/MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
* SAT - SEASONABLY CHILLY WITH A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE
* SUN/MON - TURNING UNSEASONABLY MILD
DETAILS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
SEASONABLY CHILLY AIR WORKS BACK INTO THE REGION...BUT A TEMPORARY
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP US DRY. LOWS WED NIGHT MAINLY IN
THE TEENS ACROSS THE OUTLYING LOCATIONS...TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S
IN SOME OF THE URBAN CENTERS. HIGHS ON THU WILL BE WELL UP INTO THE
30S TO PERHAPS NEAR 40 IN A FEW LOCATIONS. WINDS SHOULD BE RATHER
LIGHT AND EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE...SO OVERALL NOT TOO BAD
OF A DAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
A VERY COMPLEX SETUP THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WE ARE WATCHING A
FAIRLY STRONG PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND HOW/IF IT IS ABLE
TO PHASE WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE
SAYS THAT IT PHASES A BIT TOO LATE/FAR ENOUGH EAST SPARING OUR
REGION A WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. KEEP IN MIND THOUGH WE
ARE ABOUT 96 HOURS OUT ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...SO IT WOULD
NOT TAKE TOO MUCH OF A CHANGE FOR AN EARLIER PHASE/LARGER
IMPACT...BUT RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP THAT A LOW PROBABILITY.
ALSO...WHILE MOST MODELS HAVE LITTLE IF ANY QPF OVER THIS
TIME...THERE IS AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING BACK TOWARDS ONTARIO
ESPECIALLY SHOWN BY THE ECMWF MODEL. THEREFORE...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF LATER MODELS RUNS START TO PICKUP ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW...PARTICULARLY FOR EASTERN SECTIONS.
MODELS QPF FIELDS OFTEN DO NOT PICKUP ON THESE SETUPS UNTIL THE LAST
MINUTE. SOMETHING WILL NEED TO WATCH EVEN IF THE OCEAN STORM DOES
END UP BEING A MISS...AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY LOOKS FAIRLY POTENT.
DEPENDING ON IF WE DO END UP RECEIVING A PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION...PROBABLY WILL BE SOME BOUNDARY LAYER ISSUES EARLY
ON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN...BUT THEY WOULD PROBABLY BE
OVERCOME FOR MOST AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
SATURDAY SHOULD START OFF DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS WELL UP INTO
THE 30S TO NEAR 40. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT WITH PERHAPS A FEW BRIEF PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL ALLOW FOR RISING HEIGHT
FIELDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE
40S SUN AND MON. ITS TOO EARLY TO SAY..BUT IF WE END UP WITH ENOUGH
SUNSHINE AND TIMING IS CORRECT...SOME LOCATIONS MAY GET ABOVE 50 ON
ONE OF THOSE DAYS. A FEW SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN FLOW MAY BRING A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DRY AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOWERING VFR CIGS FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL/W MA AND N CT THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE. STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO AREAS OF LLWS...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR WITH LOCALIZED IFR
CIGS POSSIBLE. SCT SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN MIXED PRECIP/SNOW DEPENDING ON IF AN OCEAN
STORM TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST.
SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
SW WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS. EXPECTING SW GUSTS UP TO 30 KT DEVELOPING TUE
MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. A MODERATE RISK FOR GALES OVER THE EASTERN WATERS
CONTINUES...SO GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THERE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS. VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...WNW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. ROUGH SEAS WILL TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
RESULT IN WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. UNCERTAINTY
ON WIND SPEEDS AND WILL DEPEND ON TRACK/STRENGTH OF OCEAN STORM. SCA
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS PROBABLY DEVELOP BY FRIDAY WITH A LOW RISK
FOR BRIEF GALES IF STORM GETS CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN EXPECTED.
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME BY LATE IN THE DAY OR EVENING
AS COLD ADVECTION DIMINISHES.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ250-254.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251-255-
256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/FRANK
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...BELK/FRANK
MARINE...BELK/FRANK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1155 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
...WET PERIOD EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...
.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
16Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AND AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
RIDES WELL TO THE NORTH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA...PRODUCING A SHARP
AND IMPRESSIVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
THE FLOW THEN DIGS BACK TO THE SOUTH CARVING OUT A LONGWAVE TROUGH
FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES/CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND FINALLY BACK INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. UPPER FLOW
TURNS BACK TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST WITH A DEEP LAYER MID/UPPER
PATTERN STREAMING MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF/DEEP SOUTH. WHILE THE
GREATEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY STILL OFF TO OUR
NORTHWEST...THIS WILL BE CHANGING QUICKLY LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT..WITH A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW THEN WITH US THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THE ENERGY AT THE TAIL END OF THE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL EVENTUALLY PLAY A PART IN CLEARING OUR WEATHER OUT FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...BEFORE THAT TIME WE HAVE A RATHER
CLOUDY...WET...AND POTENTIALLY STORMY WEATHER PATTERN TO GET
THROUGH.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RIDGE
WILL BE SLOWLY GIVING UP ITS GRIP ON THE REGION THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY. IN ITS WAKE...A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT ALONG
WITH HIGHLY DIFFLUENT FLOW WILL ALLOW A WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION/INVERTED TROUGH TO DEVELOP/EXPAND FROM THE SOUTHERN
GULF INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
REST OF TODAY...FAIR...DRY... AND SEASONABLE WEATHER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. VARYING AREAS OF
CLOUDS AND FILTERED SUNSHINE IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 70 ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES
TO THE MIDDLE 70S CENTRAL...AND MID/UPPER 70S SOUTH. MAY END UP
SEEING ACTUALLY HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER IF THE HIGHER
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN...BUT GENERAL BALLPARK OF 70S IS A GOOD
FORECAST FOR MOST SPOTS.
THE FORECAST AND OVERALL WEATHER CONDITIONS REALLY SHOULD NOT
BEGIN TO GO DOWNHILL UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS
850-700MB THETAE RIDGE/WAA REGIME RAPIDLY EXPANDS NORTHWARD OUT
OF THE CARIBBEAN...ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND OVER THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST. DEEP LAYER AND RAPID ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE
295-315K SURFACES IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
LOOKING AT THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING...WE FIND A RATHER DEEP LAYER OF
VERY DRY AIR BETWEEN ABOUT 850MB-400MB. TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS FROM
12Z GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS DRY LAYER WILL REMAIN PRESENT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL ERODE THIS DRY
LAYER IN A HURRY...WORKING FROM SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO
NORTH/NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. GENERALLY SPEAKING NUMERICAL
WEATHER PREDICTION HAS A SLOW BIAS IN THE MOISTENING AND
DEVELOPMENT OF QPF ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WAA REGIMES
(USUALLY BY SEVERAL HOURS). HAVE MADE SOME SIZABLE CHANGES TO THE
RAINFALL CHANCES OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT NOT ONLY FOR THIS BIAS BUT
ALSO THE AGREEMENT IN A WET SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. CURRENTLY
HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE EVENING
HOURS...AND RAMPING UP TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL POPS AFTER 06Z.
HOWEVER...IF THE USUAL BIAS WORKS OUT...THEN THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER COVERAGE BREAKING OUT OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES...PERHAPS EVEN A COUPLE HOURS EARLIER.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT LOOKS WET WITH PERIOD
SHOWERS/STORMS ALMOST REGION-WIDE. THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE
AIDED BY DIFFLUENT HIGH LEVEL FLOW ALOFT. THE
AGEOSTROPIC VERTICAL CIRCULATION/OMEGA FIELDS FORCED BY ALL THE
INGREDIENTS MIGRATING NORTHWARD ARE RATHER IMPRESSIVE OFF THE 12Z
GFS. GIVEN THE EVIDENCE AT HAND...MAY VERY WELL INCREASE POPS FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT FURTHER (PERHAPS 90-100%) IN
SOME ZONES WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...THE BEST UPGLIDE/WAA SHIFTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST...BUT WE ARE STILL LEFT WITH BROAD WEAKER UPGLIDE
ACROSS THE PENINSULA. THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS AS WELL.
THEREFORE...WITH ABUNDANT COLUMN MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SEE NO
REASON WHY PERIOD OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL NOT PERSIST.
THERE ARE ALMOST CERTAINLY GOING TO BE PERIODS OF DRIER WEATHER
MIXED IN. BUT...FOR THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS/WORK...OVERALL PLANS
SHOULD BE MADE FOR RAIN. ONE CONCERN WOULD BE DOWN TOWARD FORT
MYERS AREA. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS WANT TO LIFT THE LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY A BIT FURTHER NORTH DURING THE DAY. THIS WOULD PUT
THESE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES UNDERNEATH A A LESS FAVORABLE UPGLIDE
REGIME. IF THIS WAS TO OCCUR...THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WOULD ALSO
SHIFT NORTH OF THIS REGION...AND PERHAPS SHOWERS WOULD BE LESS
FREQUENT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR GUIDANCE
TRENDS...BUT FOR NOW...WITH SUCH A BROAD LIFT PATTERN...IT IS
DIFFICULT TO ACCURATELY PREDICT REALLY TIGHT POP/QPF GRADIENTS 24
HOURS IN ADVANCE.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL (THOUGH SMALL) FOR SCT STRONGER STORMS
(EVEN ISOLATED SEVERE) LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED THE GENERAL I-4 CORRIDOR AND
SOUTHWARD IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY...AND
THIS SEEM CURRENTLY APPROPRIATE. LARGE SCALE LIFT IS CERTAINLY
THERE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS SUFFICIENT (40-50KTS) FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. TAKING A QUICK
LOOK AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM RECENT HIGH RES LOCAL WRFARW RUNS
SHOW DECENT TURNING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO THE KINEMATICS ARE SETUP
DECENT...BUT AS IS OFTEN THE CASE...THE INSTABILITY...AND
ESPECIALLY SURFACE INSTABILITY ARE THE BIGGEST QUESTION. BASED ON
THE GUIDANCE ENSEMBLES...THE MARGINAL RISK LINES UP WELL WITH
THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY THAT IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...THERE DOES
APPEAR THAT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL
EXIST...MAINLY TAMPA BAY AREA SOUTHWARD. LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE
SOME ROTATING STORM OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS TO THE WEST
OF THE SUNCOAST...WITHIN A ZONE OF EVEN HIGHER INSTABILITY/WARM
SST. LOCAL WRFARW RUNS DO SHOW OCCASIONAL STRONG UPDRAFT HELICITY
VALUES WITH SIMULATED STORMS OVER THIS REGION...SUGGESTIVE OF
SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WITH THE MODEL ENVIRONMENT. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR CLOSELY IN CASE THIS ENVIRONMENT DOES EXIST LATE
TONIGHT...AS POTENTIAL ROTATING STORMS ORIGINATING OVER THIS
OFFSHORE AREA LATER TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING WOULD TEND TO
MIGRATE TOWARD THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITION OBSERVED/PREDICTED ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH THE REMAINING DAYLIGHT HOURS. LATE IN
THE EVENING...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
QUICKLY...ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS LATE AT NIGHT. 18Z TAF FORECASTS WILL SHOW
PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALONG
WITH PREVAILING SHOWERS/STORMS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN A
PARTICULAR TIME PERIOD IS STILL TOO LOW...INTERMITTENT IFR
CIGS/VIS ARE POSSIBLE/LIKELY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...WARM FRONT...DEVELOPS INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO THIS EVENING. LARGE SCALE WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY... HOWEVER...AS THE OVERNIGHT
PROGRESSES...AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST WATERS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG WITH HIGHER WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH WATERSPOUT
POTENTIAL AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF TARPON SPRINGS. MARINERS SHOULD KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE
LATEST FORECASTS IN CASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
THE MARINE ZONES INCREASES. UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE FORM OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN COMMON IN THE FORECAST INTO
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE EASTERN GULF LATE
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A SHIFT IN WINDS TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST. CAUTIONARY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BEHIND THIS FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 73 62 71 61 / 10 70 80 90
FMY 79 65 76 66 / 10 70 80 90
GIF 76 62 73 61 / 10 70 80 90
SRQ 74 62 72 62 / 10 70 80 90
BKV 75 59 73 59 / 0 70 80 80
SPG 72 62 71 61 / 10 70 80 90
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA
DECISION SUPPORT...CARLISLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
703 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A
FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LAST AND MOST DOMINATE
IN THE SERIES WILL BEGIN LIFTING FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR INDICATED SPOTTY RAIN COVERAGE THIS
EVENING IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAYED SCATTERED COVERAGE DURING MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...BUT AN INCREASE TOWARD SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE NAM AND ECMWF PLUS MOST SREF MEMBERS
INDICATED LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN 0.25 OF AN INCH. THE GFS
HAD AMOUNTS NEAR 0.25 OF AN INCH IN THE SOUTH PART. WE LEANED
TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT LIGHTER AMOUNTS BECAUSE OF WEAK LIFT
AND THE INITIAL LOW-LEVEL DRYNESS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CLOSE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS INDICATE THE GREATEST SUPPORT FOR RAIN DURING THE 12Z
TO 18Z TIME FRAME ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE H25 JET. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED HIGHER
WITH QPF. THE GFS HAD NEAR 0.75 OF AN INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST
SECTION. WE LEANED TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT NAM AND ECMWF AND
FORECASTED LIGHTER AMOUNTS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
LOWER FOR THURSDAY AND THIS APPEARS ON TRACK BECAUSE OF RAIN AND
WEDGE-LIKE CONDITIONS.
THE MODELS DISPLAY THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT CLEARING. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
IT SHOULD BE SUNNY FRIDAY WITH THE PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A DRY PATTERN WITH A PRESSURE RIDGE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST DOMINATING THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS KEEP
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
MODELS SHOW A MOISTURE INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT POPS NEAR 20 PERCENT TUESDAY AND 30 PERCENT
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS 20 TO 30
PERCENT TUESDAY...AND 40 TO 60 PERCENT WEDNESDAY.
IT WILL BE COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE LOWS NEAR FREEZING. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA DURING
THE REST OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE GFS AND ECMWF
MOS HAVE TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
OVERNIGHT.
A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL MOVE ALONG A
STALLED FRONT WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO A POSITION
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MODELS CONTINUE TO OVERDO THE RESTRICTIONS IN THE SHORT TERM SO
CONFIDENCE AS TO WHEN IFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN IS LOW. ALL MODELS
INDICATE IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS RETURNING TO ALL TAF SITES IN THE
09Z-13Z TIME-FRAME. MAY SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS DEEP MOISTURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFFSHORE FROM FLORIDA TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1244 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016/
UPDATE...
HI-RES MODELS ARE DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE CURRENT PRECIP TRENDS.
THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE EDGING OUT THE LOCAL WRF...JUST A SMIDGE.
HAVE FOLLOWED THE HRRR TRENDS CLOSELY...EVEN INTO TOMORROW.
ALSO...UPPED POPS TO 100 PERCENT IN THE CORE OF THE LINE.
AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS...THE HI-RES MODELS ARE CLEARING
OUT ANY PRECIP BEFORE THE REALLY COLD TEMPS REACH THE NORTHERN
ZONES. PLUS...MODELS DID NOT DO A GREAT JOB WITH THE OVERNIGHT
MINS UP NORTH...AND THAT AREA HAS STARTED OUT WARMER THAN
PROJECTED.
HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO NEEDED A LITTLE
ADJUSTING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
NEAR TERM CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR ANY LIGHT FZRA OVER
FAR NE GA. CONTINUING TO MONITOR TEMPS AND APPEARS ALL AREAS
REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING. ACTUALLY AREAS CLOSEST TO FREEZING ARE
BANKS COUNTY...FAYETTE COUNTY AND PARTS OF MIDDLE GA MAINLY NEAR
MILLEDGEVILLE...ALSO JUST OUTSIDE OF CWA IN RABUN COUNTY. BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS...DOES APPEAR THAT PRECIP WILL NOT REACH THESE COOL
SPOTS IN TIME TO PRODUCE ANY LIGHT FZRA. HAVE INCLUDED SLT CHC FOR
MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/FZRA NEAR BANKS COUNTY THRU 13Z BUT NO MENTION
ANYWHERE ELSE.
OTHERWISE...STILL ON TRACK FOR RAIN EVENT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS A LITTLE
LOWER THAN PREV MODEL CYCLES. TOTAL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 1
INCH. FRONT SHOULD SLIDE INTO NW GA TODAY AND REACH ATL METRO BY
SUNSET. TEMPS QUITE A BIT COOLER BUT REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING.
DRYING BEHIND FRONT AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD DIMINISH
PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THRU THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. HAVE
TAPERED OFF POPS QUICKLY AND MATCHES 00Z HIRES MODEL GUIDANCE WELL.
SNELSON
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT MOVES IN DURING THE SHORT TERM EXITS THE
CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM EXITING
THE REGION. THEY BOTH SHOW THE CLOSED LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER
CENTRAL FL THU MORNING MOVING RAPIDLY UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO
JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z FRI. AS THIS LOW CENTER
MOVES NE IT PULLS THE LINGERING COLD FRONT OFF THE GA COAST
ALLOWING A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO BUILD NE OUT OF THE WESTERN
GULF. THIS RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE GA/FL BORDER BY SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING KEEPING THINGS DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING INCREASED CLOUDS TO NORTH GA
SUNDAY AND INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY. AS OF RIGHT NOW TEMPS
STAY WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP FREEZING OF FROZEN PRECIP OUT OF THE
FORECAST SO ONLY GOING WITH RAIN FOR DAY 7 FOR NOW.
01
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
PRECIP STILL ON TRACK FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT ATL. MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED AT THE ONSET. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE AFTER 06Z...WITH A PERIOD OF 300 FT CIGS POSSIBLE.
CIGS/VSBYS ARE ANTICIPATED TO IMPROVE BY MID MORNING TO
MVFR...WITH VFR POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD ALSO
GO NORTH ON THE BACKSIDE OF A COLD FRONT AROUND 06Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 58 45 54 35 / 20 90 80 10
ATLANTA 58 41 48 35 / 70 100 80 10
BLAIRSVILLE 51 35 46 28 / 100 100 20 10
CARTERSVILLE 58 36 47 29 / 100 100 50 10
COLUMBUS 61 47 53 37 / 20 100 100 20
GAINESVILLE 55 41 50 34 / 70 100 60 10
MACON 63 48 55 40 / 10 70 80 30
ROME 53 36 47 27 / 100 100 10 10
PEACHTREE CITY 59 41 50 33 / 50 100 80 10
VIDALIA 68 51 60 45 / 10 20 40 50
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
928 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.UPDATE...
HI-RES MODELS ARE DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE CURRENT PRECIP TRENDS.
THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE EDGING OUT THE LOCAL WRF...JUST A SMIDGE.
HAVE FOLLOWED THE HRRR TRENDS CLOSELY...EVEN INTO TOMORROW.
ALSO...UPPED POPS TO 100 PERCENT IN THE CORE OF THE LINE.
AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS...THE HI-RES MODELS ARE CLEARING
OUT ANY PRECIP BEFORE THE REALLY COLD TEMPS REACH THE NORTHERN
ZONES. PLUS...MODELS DID NOT DO A GREAT JOB WITH THE OVERNIGHT
MINS UP NORTH...AND THAT AREA HAS STARTED OUT WARMER THAN
PROJECTED.
HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO NEEDED A LITTLE
ADJUSTING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
NEAR TERM CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR ANY LIGHT FZRA OVER
FAR NE GA. CONTINUING TO MONITOR TEMPS AND APPEARS ALL AREAS
REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING. ACTUALLY AREAS CLOSEST TO FREEZING ARE
BANKS COUNTY...FAYETTE COUNTY AND PARTS OF MIDDLE GA MAINLY NEAR
MILLEDGEVILLE...ALSO JUST OUTSIDE OF CWA IN RABUN COUNTY. BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS...DOES APPEAR THAT PRECIP WILL NOT REACH THESE COOL
SPOTS IN TIME TO PRODUCE ANY LIGHT FZRA. HAVE INCLUDED SLT CHC FOR
MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/FZRA NEAR BANKS COUNTY THRU 13Z BUT NO MENTION
ANYWHERE ELSE.
OTHERWISE...STILL ON TRACK FOR RAIN EVENT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS A LITTLE
LOWER THAN PREV MODEL CYCLES. TOTAL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 1
INCH. FRONT SHOULD SLIDE INTO NW GA TODAY AND REACH ATL METRO BY
SUNSET. TEMPS QUITE A BIT COOLER BUT REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING.
DRYING BEHIND FRONT AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD DIMINISH
PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THRU THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. HAVE
TAPERED OFF POPS QUICKLY AND MATCHES 00Z HIRES MODEL GUIDANCE WELL.
SNELSON
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT MOVES IN DURING THE SHORT TERM EXITS THE
CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM EXITING
THE REGION. THEY BOTH SHOW THE CLOSED LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER
CENTRAL FL THU MORNING MOVING RAPIDLY UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO
JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z FRI. AS THIS LOW CENTER
MOVES NE IT PULLS THE LINGERING COLD FRONT OFF THE GA COAST
ALLOWING A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO BUILD NE OUT OF THE WESTERN
GULF. THIS RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE GA/FL BORDER BY SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING KEEPING THINGS DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING INCREASED CLOUDS TO NORTH GA
SUNDAY AND INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY. AS OF RIGHT NOW TEMPS
STAY WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP FREEZING OF FROZEN PRECIP OUT OF THE
FORECAST SO ONLY GOING WITH RAIN FOR DAY 7 FOR NOW.
01
AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MVFR CIGS AROUND 5000-6000FT NOW WIDESPREAD BUT JUST NORTH OF
KATL. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO PUSH SOUTH. SFC WINDS STILL ON TRACK
TO SWITCH TO SW AROUND 18Z. PUSHED UP TIMING OF RAIN AN HOUR TO
AROUND 23Z AT ATL METRO AIRPORTS BASED ON LATEST TIMING AND RADAR
TRENDS. IFR CIGS/VSBYS ALSO LIKELY AFTER 06Z WED AT MOST SITES.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
SNELSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 58 45 54 35 / 50 100 50 10
ATLANTA 58 41 48 35 / 70 100 50 5
BLAIRSVILLE 51 35 46 28 / 90 100 10 5
CARTERSVILLE 58 36 47 29 / 100 100 10 5
COLUMBUS 61 47 53 37 / 40 100 90 10
GAINESVILLE 55 41 50 34 / 70 100 30 5
MACON 63 48 55 40 / 20 90 100 20
ROME 53 36 47 27 / 100 100 10 5
PEACHTREE CITY 59 41 50 33 / 70 100 60 10
VIDALIA 68 51 60 45 / 5 30 30 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
112 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER JUST OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION MID WEEK WHICH MAY
STALL ALONG THE COAST AND KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD JUST OFF THE COAST TONIGHT.
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT MAY HELP LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING POTENTIAL. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
THE COAST WITH A DECOUPLED AIRMASS. THE HRRR SHOWS REDUCED
VISIBILITIES STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN CSRA INTO THE PEE DEE
REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY AHEAD OF FRONT IN THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A MODEST INCREASE
IN MOISTURE...MAINLY HIGH LEVEL. FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
WEST OF THE REGION. WARM ADVECTION SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. FRONT PARALLEL TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW SO EXPECTED TO BE SLOW
MOVING INTO REGION WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE PIEDMONT WHERE CONVERGENCE
STRONGEST. FRONT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. DEEP MOISTURE
SPREADING NORTHEAST FROM GULF OF MEXICO AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
MODERATELY STRONG AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS FOR LARGE
SCALE LIFT. IN-SITU WEDGE LIKELY DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOIST ADIABATIC. SO WILL CONTINUE
NEAR LIKELY POPS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND
FRONT AS NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH FRONT THAN PREVIOUS ECMWF.
LATEST SUPERBLEND POPS SUGGEST RAIN CHANCE THRU THURSDAY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE GEORGIA/CAROLINA COAST. WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY AND COOL TEMPERATURES. WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR WILL BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THROUGH DAYBREAK.
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY
FROM THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING MAINLY AT AGS...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO FOR
FOG AROUND SUNRISE. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD RESULTING IN HIGH CLOUDS
THICKENING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN AFTER 27/00Z.
AS THE CLOUDS LOWER SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH FROM 27/03Z ONWARD AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 9
KNOTS FROM 16Z THROUGH 27/03Z...THEN SUBSIDE TO 5 KNOTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
835 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 834 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
Another fast moving clipper passing well to our north this
evening keeping the more significant precip away from central
Illinois. The latest surface map was showing a trof/wind shift
line over central Iowa which was tracking east towards our area.
Other than some scattered to broken mid level clouds, not much
in the way of sensible weather noted out to our west. The gusty
southerly winds tonight should help keep temperatures on the
mild side for late January before the surface trof shifts through
our area overnight. Have made some minor adjustments to the winds
and evening temperatures, with the rest of the forecast looking
good. Update already sent.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
Most of the earlier stratocumulus has faded early this afternoon,
with the lingering clouds over east central Illinois showing more of
a diurnal appearance. Mid level clouds quickly streaming toward us
from the northwest, ahead of a trough/warm front the clipper that
will track across the Great Lakes tonight. Temperatures are well
into the 30s this afternoon and were close to 40 in areas west of
Springfield.
Main impact from the trough/front will be with the winds, as its
passage will otherwise only bring clouds with it. Tightening
pressure gradient will cause a period of gusty southwest winds
beginning late afternoon northwest of the Illinois River, and
spreading south of I-70 by early evening. HRRR guidance seems too
high with a period of 40-45 mph gusts this evening, but the LAMP
guidance closer to 25 mph seems more reasonable. Winds will lighten
up a bit overnight as the main trough axis crosses the area.
Temperatures should remain fairly steady in the evening, before
falling off to around 30 degrees in most areas late night.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
Another clipper system near the northern MN and sw Ontario border
will track across the Great Lakes region Thu and drive a frontal
boundary/trof east across IL by Thu afternoon. Added small chances
of light snow or flurries to ne CWA Thu afternoon and also increased
the cloud cover during Thu especially by late morning and afternoon.
Highs Thu in upper 30s to near 40F from I-74 north and lower 40s
south with Lawrenceville near 45F. WSW winds at dawn Thu to veer WNW
Thu afternoon at 10-15 mph and gusts 17-24 mph so a bit breezy Thu.
Weak surface high pressure ridge of 1017 mb moves east from the
Great Plains into IL by dawn Friday and decrease the winds Thu night.
Lows mostly in the mid 20s Thu night, with some upper 20s se of I-
70. High pressure shifts east of IL during Friday with increasing
southerly flow and its back side and a bit milder highs in the low
to mid 40s, mildest from Springfield sw. Partly to mostly sunny
skies Friday with weak upper level ridging into IL by Fri afternoon.
Upper level flow becomes more zonal late this week with milder
Pacific air moving into IL this weekend. SW winds Sat brings highs
to near 50F from I-74 north and mid 50s south of I-70 and sw of
Springfield. Highs mostly in the 50s on Sunday ranging from around
50F nw of IL river to upper 50s in southeast IL. Low pressure
passing north of Lake Superior Saturday to increase clouds northern
CWA while southeast IL enjoys more sunshine through the day Saturday.
More active weather pattern takes shape Sunday-Wednesday as IL gets
established in a sw upper level flow with upper level trof digging
over the Rockies and upper level ridging building near the Atlantic
coast. Above normal temps through Tue then cooling closer to normal
next Wed. Low pressure near the western KS/OK border by sunset Sat
to eject ne into the western Great Lakes by sunset Sunday and pull a
frontal boundary se into central IL Sunday afternoon. This to bring
1st chance of light rain showers and lingering Sunday night
especially over ne and eastern IL Sunday evening. Could see a mix of
precipitation along and north of a Rushville to Bloomington line
after midnight Sunday night but little or no snow accumuation. Still
looks like a lull in rain chances Monday with mainly slight chances
as stronger surface low pressure gets organized over north Texas.
Models bring strong low pressure ne into west central or nw IL Tue
evening and into the western Great Lakes Wed. Central and southeast
IL appear to be mostly in the warm sector with mostly rain chances,
starting to increase from sw to ne during Monday night, with likely
chances Tue and Tue night. A few thunderstorms possible Tue south of
highway 50 in southern IL. Colder air beginning to move in during
Tue night especially after midnight Tue night and Wed to change rain
to snow nw CWA with some accumulations possible mainly nw of the IL
river. Most of area will see a good chance of light snow on Wed as
colder air continues to usher into the area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
VFR conditions are expected through tomorrow morning before
another band of stratocumulus (MVFR cigs) tracks southeast
across the area in the 14z-18z time frame. Main forecast
concern this period will be with surface winds later this
evening as a frontal boundary pushes across the area. A
band of mid level clouds will push across the area this
evening with surface winds increasing out of the south to
southwest with a few gusts approaching 27 kts after 03z.
As a weak frontal boundary approaches the area late tonight
we look for surface winds to decrease, at least with the
gusts, before shifting into more of a west to northwest
direction for Thursday. Another band of MVFR cigs will shift
southeast into the area later tomorrow morning and spend a good
portion of the afternoon over the region with cig bases in the
1500 to 2500 foot range. West to northwest winds of 12 to 17 kts
can be expected on Thursday.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
550 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
Most of the earlier stratocumulus has faded early this afternoon,
with the lingering clouds over east central Illinois showing more of
a diurnal appearance. Mid level clouds quickly streaming toward us
from the northwest, ahead of a trough/warm front the clipper that
will track across the Great Lakes tonight. Temperatures are well
into the 30s this afternoon and were close to 40 in areas west of
Springfield.
Main impact from the trough/front will be with the winds, as its
passage will otherwise only bring clouds with it. Tightening
pressure gradient will cause a period of gusty southwest winds
beginning late afternoon northwest of the Illinois River, and
spreading south of I-70 by early evening. HRRR guidance seems too
high with a period of 40-45 mph gusts this evening, but the LAMP
guidance closer to 25 mph seems more reasonable. Winds will lighten
up a bit overnight as the main trough axis crosses the area.
Temperatures should remain fairly steady in the evening, before
falling off to around 30 degrees in most areas late night.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
Another clipper system near the northern MN and sw Ontario border
will track across the Great Lakes region Thu and drive a frontal
boundary/trof east across IL by Thu afternoon. Added small chances
of light snow or flurries to ne CWA Thu afternoon and also increased
the cloud cover during Thu especially by late morning and afternoon.
Highs Thu in upper 30s to near 40F from I-74 north and lower 40s
south with Lawrenceville near 45F. WSW winds at dawn Thu to veer WNW
Thu afternoon at 10-15 mph and gusts 17-24 mph so a bit breezy Thu.
Weak surface high pressure ridge of 1017 mb moves east from the
Great Plains into IL by dawn Friday and decrease the winds Thu night.
Lows mostly in the mid 20s Thu night, with some upper 20s se of I-
70. High pressure shifts east of IL during Friday with increasing
southerly flow and its back side and a bit milder highs in the low
to mid 40s, mildest from Springfield sw. Partly to mostly sunny
skies Friday with weak upper level ridging into IL by Fri afternoon.
Upper level flow becomes more zonal late this week with milder
Pacific air moving into IL this weekend. SW winds Sat brings highs
to near 50F from I-74 north and mid 50s south of I-70 and sw of
Springfield. Highs mostly in the 50s on Sunday ranging from around
50F nw of IL river to upper 50s in southeast IL. Low pressure
passing north of Lake Superior Saturday to increase clouds northern
CWA while southeast IL enjoys more sunshine through the day Saturday.
More active weather pattern takes shape Sunday-Wednesday as IL gets
established in a sw upper level flow with upper level trof digging
over the Rockies and upper level ridging building near the Atlantic
coast. Above normal temps through Tue then cooling closer to normal
next Wed. Low pressure near the western KS/OK border by sunset Sat
to eject ne into the western Great Lakes by sunset Sunday and pull a
frontal boundary se into central IL Sunday afternoon. This to bring
1st chance of light rain showers and lingering Sunday night
especially over ne and eastern IL Sunday evening. Could see a mix of
precipitation along and north of a Rushville to Bloomington line
after midnight Sunday night but little or no snow accumuation. Still
looks like a lull in rain chances Monday with mainly slight chances
as stronger surface low pressure gets organized over north Texas.
Models bring strong low pressure ne into west central or nw IL Tue
evening and into the western Great Lakes Wed. Central and southeast
IL appear to be mostly in the warm sector with mostly rain chances,
starting to increase from sw to ne during Monday night, with likely
chances Tue and Tue night. A few thunderstorms possible Tue south of
highway 50 in southern IL. Colder air beginning to move in during
Tue night especially after midnight Tue night and Wed to change rain
to snow nw CWA with some accumulations possible mainly nw of the IL
river. Most of area will see a good chance of light snow on Wed as
colder air continues to usher into the area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
VFR conditions are expected through tomorrow morning before
another band of stratocumulus (MVFR cigs) tracks southeast
across the area in the 14z-18z time frame. Main forecast
concern this period will be with surface winds later this
evening as a frontal boundary pushes across the area. A
band of mid level clouds will push across the area this
evening with surface winds increasing out of the south to
southwest with a few gusts approaching 27 kts after 03z.
As a weak frontal boundary approaches the area late tonight
we look for surface winds to decrease, at least with the
gusts, before shifting into more of a west to northwest
direction for Thursday. Another band of MVFR cigs will shift
southeast into the area later tomorrow morning and spend a good
portion of the afternoon over the region with cig bases in the
1500 to 2500 foot range. West to northwest winds of 12 to 17 kts
can be expected on Thursday.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
955 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST MAINLY TO ADD A TOUCH OF FOG
OVER THE DEEPER SNOWPACK AS SEEN IN THE LATEST HRRR AND RUC13.
ALSO FINE TUNED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. ALSO
UPDATED THE HWO TO ADDRESS THE ONGOING BLACK ICE SITUATION AROUND
THE CWA ALONG WITH ISSUING AN SPS THROUGH 9 AM FOR THE SAME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 755 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SQUEEZING
THROUGH KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. THIS HAS TEMPORARILY CLEARED THE
SKIES AND COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A MODERATE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. CURRENTLY READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 20S IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS TO NEAR 30 ON THE RIDGES AND IN THE MORE OPEN TERRAIN.
DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS THE
REGION. THE SNOWPACK REMAINS AN ISSUE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ADDING
TO THE CHALLENGE FOR TEMPERATURE FORECASTING OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION...THE AREAS WHERE IT IS STILL THICK ENOUGH WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LOCAL FOG FORMATION AFTER
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
RULE WITH REFREEZING ON AREA ROADS AN ONGOING CONCERN THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S
IN MOST PLACES. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THESE
TEMPERATURE AND SKY COVER ISSUES...ALONG WITH INCORPORATING THE
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS IN THE NEAR TERM. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
LOW STRATUS HAS MIXED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S FOR ALL BUT A FEW OF THE HIGHEST
RIDGES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING...KEEPING
WINDS LIGHT AND PROVIDING FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOME OF THE LOWER VALLEYS TONIGHT AS DRAINAGE/DOWN
VALLEY FLOWS COMMENCE. THIS THREAT WILL SHIFT EAST IN CONJUNCTION
WITH DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGING ALLOWING LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO
RETURN.
THE BRUNT IF NOT ALL OF THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY DESPITE THE
PASSAGE OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. FORCING FROM THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY
REMAIN TOO FAR NORTH TO PROVIDE FOR MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN MID-
HIGH CLOUDS AS A FORMIDABLE DRY WEDGE OF AIR REMAINS IN PLACE
BETWEEN A SHALLOW SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AND 10000-12000 FEET.
A SECOND WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...THIS
TIME WITH A GREATER AMOUNT OF LIFT MAKING IT MUCH FARTHER SOUTH
INTO THE COMMONWEALTH. TEMPERATURES MAKING IT INTO THE 40S
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD PROMOTE MAINLY RAIN/SPRINKLES AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY EVENING...BUT COLUMN COOLING AND
WET-BULBING SHOULD PROMOTE A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES BY MID EVENING. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...WITH PERHAPS UP TO HALF AN INCH FALLING ACROSS THE HIGHER
RIDGES NEAR THE VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA STATE LINES.
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY SPELL AREAS OF LOW STRATUS INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WITH FOG A LOWER POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 5-10 MPH WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
ZONAL FLOW WILL RULE THE CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE
THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES ONCE AGAIN INTO THE EARLY AND MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...BUT DETAILS ON THE EVOLVING LONG WAVE
PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK ARE STILL ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY. AS SUCH...CONTINUED TO STICK CLOSE TO THE BLENDED
GUIDANCE.
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS RECOVER ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE
COOLER ON FRIDAY...WITH UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 COMMON. THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL QUICKLY SCOOT OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
FOR A GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES IN
RETURN FLOW. THE COOLER VALLEYS WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE LOWER
20S...WHILE RIDGES STAY UP IN THE LOWER 30S.
WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE THE MAIN STORY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...AS HIGHS RETURN WELL INTO THE 50S...WITH A FEW 60S
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY LATE SUNDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE EXTENT OF IMPACT FROM THIS ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MONDAY. THE GFS REMAINS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND THE PRECIP INTO OUR AREA...WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS KEPT THE BOUNDARY FROM COMING MUCH FURTHER SOUTHEAST
THAN THE OHIO RIVER. AGAIN...STUCK CLOSE TO A BLEND...KEEPING A
GRADIENT OF HIGHER POPS IN THE NORTHWEST AND LESS IN THE
SOUTHEAST FOR NOW. POPS REALLY RAMP UP TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS
A STRONG SYSTEM GENS UP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PIVOTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...REACHING THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY. THE
BEST CHANCE POPS LOOK TO BE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BLENDED
GUIDANCE OFFERING LIKELY POPS. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S TUESDAY...TO THE 40S AND 50S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
WHILE SKIES ARE VFR CURRENTLY...SOME MVFR CEILINGS COULD
MATERIALIZE OVER PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...IMPACTING MAINLY KJKL/KSJS...BUT FOR THE MOST
PART SKIES WILL BE CLOUD FREE UNTIL THE NEXT BAND OF MID AND HIGH
ONES MOVE IN LATER THURSDAY. WILL ALSO MONITOR VISIBILITY FOR A
POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT OFF THE DEEPER SNOW PACK THAT MAY YET
IMPACT THE JKL...LOZ...OR SME SITES LATER TONIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE
MAINTAINED THE P6SM VIS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH AN
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 10 KTS BY MIDDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
200 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 200 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
Low confidence forecast with respect to clouds early on. RAP 13km
seems to have best handle on 925mb rh, and decrease due to mixing
over SEMO into far west KY. High cloud influence will eventually
be limited to west KY. Otherwise short term updates to the cloud
forecast likely given the overall poor modeling of moisture at
925mb. Higher confidence of clouds maintaining is east into the
KEVV tri-state area. Otherwise high pressure the rule with dry
weather forecast. Energy and a boundary move through early Thursday
with mainly mid and upper clouds. Chilly Wednesday though return
sun. Thursday milder.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 200 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
Through Saturday and into Sunday, the main focus for the WFO PAH
forecast area will be the southerly flow and the increase in
temperatures from normal (some 15 to 20 degrees) for this time of
year. The general pattern shifts from a zonal flow to an
increasingly southwesterly flow aloft from Saturday onward.
The deterministic 00-12z Tuesday GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian guidance
still hint at warm advection, isentropically lifted, warm conveyor
belt shower activity breaking out late Sunday morning, increasing in
coverage through Monday.
Unlike the more consistent ECMWF the past few days, the GFS has
transitioned into a much more progressive northern stream flow
associated with a stronger and deeper low in the upper Midwest,
developing and shearing out a cold front across the area, as apposed
to maintaining a warm front across the northern sections of the WFO
PAH forecast area.
However, the ECMWF and the GFS Ensemble (albeit a little further
north than the ECMWF), maintain a warm frontal zone near the region,
maintaining the WFO PAH forecast area in a warm sector and greater
instability with time.
The nearly vertically stacked closed low in Western Missouri next
Tuesday continues to support some upright convection (thunderstorm
activity), so kept the mention of thunderstorms in place during the
day on Tuesday.
The main features for the latter half of Sunday through Monday night
will be scattered showers and then a shift to colder temperatures
again after February 3rd with the passage of a strong cold front.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1057 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
Clouds will be the main forecast challenge. A wedge of clearing
extends from around KPOF to just north of the Ohio River. High
clouds were over top of the lower deck. Trajectories suggest
clouds will hang tough east of the MS River, and especially KEVV
and KOWB, so will keep MVFR cigs between 2-3K/FT there through the
forecast. Confidence is lower at KPAH and KCGI. We see little
southward advancement of the clouds. So it may scatter out at KCGI
and possibly KPAH at times. Will keep a cig going both places for
now and AMD if need be. NW winds up to around 10 kts will become
light from the north overnight.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
106 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 106 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE RISE AS SOME OF THE VALLEYS HAVE
BEGUN TO MIX OUT. RADAR RETURNS INDICATE A FEW INSTANCES OF
SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL. DESPITE A DRY
LAYER...IT SEEMS SOME PRECIP IS MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE AS
EVIDENCE FROM SOME OBS TO THE WEST. WILL EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF TONIGHT. FORTUNATELY...WARMER AIR IS
MOVING INTO THE AREA FAST ENOUGH THAT FREEZING PRECIP WILL NOT BE
AN ISSUE TONIGHT. THIS UPDATE WILL NOT REQUIRE A NEW ZFP AS THE
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1040 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
THE LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING WESTERN
PARTS OF THE CWA ATTM. MEANWHILE...THE EASTERN VALLEYS ARE
STARTING TO REBOUND FROM EVENING LOWS NEAR FREEZING AS THEIR
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO CLIMB. THIS IS ALLEVIATING CONCERNS FOR ANY
MORE THAN ISOLATED SPOTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT. AS
SUCH...HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO LIMIT THIS THREAT AND ALSO ADJUST
THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. AN UPDATED SET OF ZONES IS
FORTHCOMING...AS WELL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 840 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
01Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE INFLUENCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FRONT IS
STILL MOSTLY DRY AS IT IS CROSSING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WELL OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT A BAND OF LIGHT PCPN IS TRYING TO DEVELOP
OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS AND INTO EASTERN OHIO. WHILE THERE REMAINS
A DEEP SNOWPACK THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND A DECK OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE KEEPING MUCH OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY RATHER MILD WITH READINGS IN THE MID 40S ON
RIDGES AND INTO THE MORE OPEN AREAS. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE EASTERN
VALLEYS...UNDER A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
FALL TO NEAR FREEZING AND THIS COULD POSE A PROBLEM AS THE LIGHT
PCPN MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT. DO BELIEVE THAT THESE COLD SPOTS
WILL MIX OUT AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL PCPN...THOUGH. DEWPOINTS REMAIN
RATHER DRY...IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S...THROUGHOUT THE AREA BUT
HAVE BEEN COMING UP IN THE VALLEYS AND OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
CLOSER TO FREEZING. THESE WILL BE KEY TO ANY WETBULBING FOR SUB
FREEZING TEMPS AS THE LIGHT RAIN MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT. THE
LATEST HRRR KEEP THE PCPN ON OUR FRINGES THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS...BEFORE MOVING IN TOWARDS DAWN. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE HWO AND MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE SPS LATER
THIS EVENING. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THESE RIDGE TO
VALLEY DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ALONG WITH
NUDGING THE POP AND WX GRIDS TOWARD THE LATEST HRRR. THESE UPDATED
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 457 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A STACKED SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION HAS PRODUCED HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S THIS AFTERNOON...HELPING TO MELT A GOOD DEAL
OF THE RESIDUAL SNOWPACK FROM THIS PAST WEEKEND/S SYSTEM. WARMING
WILL CONTINUE FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING BEFORE LOW STRATUS MOVES IN
AND HALTS THE WARMUP. INCREASING MOISTURE THIS EVENING WILL RESULT
IN LOWERING CLOUD DECKS WITH RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH AND INTO THE BLUEGRASS REGION BY EARLY-MID EVENING.
PRECIPITATION GENERATION WILL BE AIDED BY A 35-45 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
SKIRTING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR HOW QUICKLY LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS DECOUPLE AND
SUBSEQUENTLY COOL THIS EVENING BEFORE THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OR TWO OF FREEZING RAIN ON ROAD
SURFACES AS RWIS DATA CURRENTLY SUGGEST ISOLATED PAVEMENT SURFACES
HOVERING AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PEAK LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64 AND ESPECIALLY NEARER THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY
AND TENNESSEE BORDER. DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW
IN NATURE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
SOUNDINGS APPEAR MOIST ENOUGH TO WARRANT CONTINUATION OF DRIZZLE FOR
A PERIOD BEFORE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE TROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT...THUS TRANSITIONING PRECIPITATION TO SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN ALONG WITH A FEW FLURRIES AS FURTHER COOLING
AND CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW TAKES PLACE. NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH
PRECIPITATION TO WORRY ABOUT ANY WINTRY TYPE ACCUMULATION FOR
NOW...BUT A FEW SLICK SPOTS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE ON ELEVATED
SURFACES AND ROADS FREE OF ANY RESIDUAL SALT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
A DEEP POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH...EXPANDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH TEXAS...WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
BEGINS DEEPENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE FIRST TROUGH
WILL PASS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AROUND
THE TIME THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME THE
PREDOMINATE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THIS SECONDARY TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT SHIFTS EAST...REACHING THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN EXITING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
GENERALLY INCREASING HEIGHTS SHOULD TAKE HOLD FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MORE ZONAL FLOW SETS IN FOR THE WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS ARE IN
SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THIS ZONAL FLOW...GENERALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
TO START THE DAY WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE HOLD AT THE
SURFACE DESPITE THE FIRST OF THE TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH. THE ONLY
IMPACT WE WILL LIKELY SEE FROM THIS IS CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND
DECREASING TEMPS...AS COOLER CANADIAN AIR GETS PULLED IN
ALOFT...WITH ONLY LOW TO MID 30S FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH MORE
SOUTHERLY WINDS TAKING HOLD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE
HIGH...AND TEMPERATURE BEGINNING A WARMING TREND ONCE MORE. THE
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE/TROUGH WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE
GREAT LAKE REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD
AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS. THIS WILL BRING POP POTENTIAL INTO THE CWA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...QPF REMAINS LOW...AND THERE IS AN OBVIOUS LACK OF
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO STICK WITH ONLY
SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS AND LIGHT QPF AT THIS TIME. THERE IS SOME
CONCERNS WITH PRECIP TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM...GIVEN THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE MOISTURE. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SNOW IN THE NORTH...HOWEVER IN
THE SOUTHWEST...LATEST GFS40 SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTING YET ANOTHER
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT. THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS FORECAST...AND GIVEN THAT IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT /DAY
4/...DECIDED TO PLAY THE SAFE ROUTE AND JUST MENTIONED RAIN AND
SNOW MIXTURE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH FOR AS WE NEAR ONSET.
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN KEEP WEATHER DRY
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE
REGION WILL BE IN RELATION TO THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS PRODUCED ALONG
THE ZONAL FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW...LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT 18Z SUNDAY...WILL HAVE A
STATIONARY FRONT WHICH WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST...PIVOTING ACROSS KY
SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH SOUTHERLY AIR WILL BE
PULLED IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE TO
CREATE DECENT WAA...AS WELL AS MOISTURE ADVECTION. THIS WILL LEAD
TO BOTH INCREASING TEMPS AND POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD SWATH OF PRECIP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. GIVEN THE WARM STATUS /HIGHS MAY
ACTUALLY REACH THE MID AND UPPER 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS/...STILL EXPECTING THIS ROUND OF PRECIP TO FALL IN THE
FORM OF RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MAINLY THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD BEFORE CEILINGS BEGIN TO FALL AS A FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS CIGS FALL TO IFR AND BELOW IN MANY
LOCATIONS. CIGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH
GUSTS TO 18 KNOTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN/GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1152 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 26/06Z TAFS...A BAND OF SHWRS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED TSTMS
HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A COLD FRONT GENERALLY ALONG AND SE OF A LINE
FROM KLFK TO KELD. THE FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. KLFK AND KMLU WILL BE THE PRIMARY TAF SITES AFFECTED.
PRECIP WILL LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX/N CNTRL LA THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HRS OF TUESDAY BEFORE EXITING THE AREA. MOST
TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN VFR BUT OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE RAIN. SOUTHERLY SFC
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE IN
SPEED TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS BUT
SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
/09/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016/
DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG A LINE FROM STRONG ARKANSAS TO ARCADIA
AND MANSFIELD LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST INTO LUFKIN TEXAS. CONVECTION
HAS BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG THE COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. HRRR MODEL
SUGGESTS CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS DEEP
EAST TEXAS AND INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. FOR THIS UPDATE...WENT
AHEAD AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 44 54 34 51 / 30 10 10 0
MLU 46 49 36 48 / 70 60 20 10
DEQ 33 51 25 51 / 10 0 0 0
TXK 38 52 31 49 / 10 10 0 0
ELD 42 51 31 48 / 30 20 10 0
TYR 40 53 33 52 / 10 10 10 0
GGG 41 54 34 52 / 20 10 10 0
LFK 47 55 37 55 / 60 30 30 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
602 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OVERNIGHT THEN CROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT
THEN CROSS THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE POPS TO PUSH HIGHER PERCENTAGES INTO
NEW BRUNSWICK EARLY THIS EVENING WHILE ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIP
WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ME FROM THE W. THE LATEST HRRR 3KM AND
NAM12 DOING QUITE WELL W/THIS SETUP. THE LAST BURST OF SNOW ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL AROOSTOOK COUNTY DELIVERED 0.5-1.0" OF SNOW IN SOME
SPOTS. PRECIP WILL BE A MIX MOST OF THE TIME EXCEPT WHEN A FEW
HEAVIER AREAS SET UP WHICH WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW DUE TO
SOME DYNAMIC COOLING ALOFT.
TEMPS HAVE WARMED A BIT SINCE 12Z INTO THE LOW AND MID 30S ACROSS
THE NORTH WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST HAD UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPS TO MATCH W/THE CURRENT OBS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER BAND OF SN SHWRS WITH THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FAR N
VERY LATE TNGT INTO ERLY WED MORN WITH LCLY UP TO AN INCH OF
ADDITIONAL SNFL...WI THE BAND LOSING ORGANIZATION INTO CNTRL AND
DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA LATER WED. WITH THIS TMG OF THE COLD
FRONT...OVRNGT LOWS WILL BE VERY MILD WITH TEMPS FALLING BEGINNING
MID TO LATE MORN ACROSS THE N AND MIDDAY TO AFTN CNTRL AND
DOWNEAST AREAS ON WED. EVEN WITH FALLING TEMPS...MORN HI TEMPS
WILL BE SIG ABV AVG. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLR ACROSS THE FA IN THE
MID TO LATE AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO GIVE WAY TO SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NORTH...10 TO 15 ABOVE
CENTRAL/INTERIOR DOWN EAST AND 15 TO 20 COASTAL DOWN EAST.
THURSDAY WILL FEATURE INCREASING CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER
TYPE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20 NORTH AND LOW TO
MID 30S NORTH.
THE CLIPPER LOW FROM THE WEST WILL WEAKEN THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS WELL EAST OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. EXPECT
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS NORTH AND LOW TO MID 20 CENTRAL
AND DOWN EAST.
FRIDAY`S FORECAST WILL DEPENDENT ON THE PLACEMENT AND DEVELOPMENT
OF A TROF THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE WEAKENING
SURFACE LOW TO THE WEST AND THE OCEAN LOW TO OUR EAST. HAVE GONE
WITH LOW LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS TO SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IN A NARROW
BAND BUT AGAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH REGARD TO
PLACEMENT. THE LATEST GFS FOCUSES ON THE MAINE MID-COAST WHILE
ECMWF/NAM ALONG THE MAINE/NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER FOR THE PLACEMENT
HEAVIER SNOW. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S
NORTH AND LOWER 30S CENTRAL DOWN EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL LIE SOMEWHERE ACROSS
COASTAL/EASTERN MAINE FRIDAY EVENING, ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE BAND OF
SNOW. THIS FEATURE WILL EXIT OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY
FROM NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS SETS UP SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY,
WITH THE GFS BRINGING A DEEPENING LOW UP WELL TO OUR WEST, WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PRODUCES A WEAKER LOW ACROSS
DOWNEAST MAINE FOR AROUND THE SAME TIME FRAME. THE GFS SOLUTION
WOULD BE A RAIN MAKER ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD LIMIT LIQUID PRECIP TO CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE. HAVE
STAYED CLOSE TO A BLEND OF MODELS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REMAIN MILD FOR LATE JANUARY/EARLY FEBRUARY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY MVFR CLGS NRN TAF SITES AND VFR DOWNEAST SITES
XPCTD TNGT INTO WED...WITH BRIEF IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH SN SHWRS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MSLY OVR NRN TAF SITES ERLY TO MID
WED MORN.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN SNOW. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH MORE POSSIBLE IFR IN LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH CURRENT MARGINAL GALE WRNG OVR OUTER MZ
WATERS AND STRONG SCA FOR INNER HARBOR/BAY WATERS THRU THE NGT. WE
WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO A PD SCA HDLNS FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR
AT LEAST WED MORN INTO THE ERLY AFTN HRS BEFORE ALL HDLNS CAN BE
DROPPED. KEPT CLOSE WITH WW3 WV GUIDANCE THRU THE NEAR TERM...WITH
CURRENT OBSVD WV HTS ALMOST EXACTLY MATCHING GUIDANCE ATTM.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED
TO 1 TO 3 NM IN SNOW/RAIN ON FRIDAY. &&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ052.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ052.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
806 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TODAY FOLLOWED BY PERIODIC
SNOW SHOWER CHANCES AND SEASONALLY COLD TEMPERATURES THE REST OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE THIS MORNING TO MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING
OF POPS...TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS AS THE SECOND LINE OF
SHOWERS IS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE CWA FASTER THAN FORECAST. USED
THE LATEST HRRR TO ADJUST THE TIMING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT HAS SCOURED OUT
THE COLD AIR FROM MOST OF THE VALLEYS...WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
LOCATIONS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30`S.
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT ANALYZED BACK OVER INDIANA TO PASS THE
REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL
AFTER THAT TIME. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET PRESENT JUST ABOVE THE DECK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
RIDGES AND ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...BUT WILL DROP AS FAR
SOUTH AS PITTSBURGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES OVERHEAD. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT DUE
TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING.
RIDGING WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY SEVERAL WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION ALONG THE UNITED
STATES/CANADIAN BORDER. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR COLDER
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS
SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE...MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT AT ALL
TERMINALS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH WINDS THEN
TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS 20-25 KT. BEHIND THE
FRONT...STRATOCUMULUS APPEARS LIKELY TO KEEP MVFR CIGS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AROUND
FKL/DUJ.
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
123 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. PERIODIC SNOW SHOWER CHANCES AND SEASONALLY
COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MILD CONDITIONS AND VERY LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THERE
IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT A HANDFUL OF VALLEY LOCATIONS NORTH AND
EAST OF PITTSBURGH MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WHERE
WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED AND TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED TO BELOW
FREEZING AT PRECIPITATION ONSET...BUT IF THIS OCCURS IT WILL BE
VERY SHORT LIVED AS TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY CLIMB TO ABOVE
FREEZING IF THEY ARE NOT ALREADY THERE.
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY TO
INCREASE TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.
THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO COMPLETE ITS PASSAGE TUE. MOST OF THE
LIMITED PCPN IS EXPD TO BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MINIMAL SNOW
SHOWER CHCS AFTER FROPA TUE AFTN. TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING
TWEAKED NEAR TERM HRRR AND BLENDED GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES AND RIDGES ON WEDNESDAY.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT DUE TO LIMITED
MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING.
BUILDING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD SHUN AWAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW AVERAGE AND WERE CALCULATED
BASED ON A SUPER BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL RAISE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY...AFTER WHICH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL OVER
THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE HEADING TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM SLOW RISE IN FEW POINTS WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.
EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER 06Z. WITH WEAK FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL JET OFF THE DECK...HAVE CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVER
40 KTS JUST ABOVE WEAK INVERSION NEAR 1500 FT. EXPECT MVFR CIGS
TO REMAIN BEHIND FROPA TUESDAY.
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1050 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND HI RES SOUNDING DATA SHOWS DEEPER MOISTURE
HAS BEEN STRIPPED OUT ALOFT...AND THE TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS ALL UNDER -10C WITH STRONG WINDS HELPING TO DEVELOP AREAS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE. WILL BE MONITORING FOR A POSSIBLE NEW HEADLINE
FOR ICING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
RATHER SUBSTANTIAL UPDATES THIS EVENING. WAA BAND OF SNOWS THAT
ROLLED THROUGH AMOUNTED TO VERY LITTLE...AND CONDITIONS ARE LESS
THAN MARGINAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT. THERE IS A VORT
MAX SWINGING DOWN INTO FAR NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND THERE WILL BE A
AN UPTICK IN THE SNOWFALL. THERE WAS SOME CONSIDERATION FOR
KEEPING THE ADVISORIES FOR EASTERN UPPER AND EMMET COUNTY TO TAKE
THIS INTO ACCOUNT. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL COMBINATION OF SNOW AND
WIND ON REDUCED VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LESS. THUS...THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE CLIPPER`S COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION 12-16Z THURSDAY...AND WILL HAVE
MINIMAL EFFECT FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKES...BUT ACROSS NW LOWER
AND CHIPPEWA COUNTY...A BURST OF SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IS
LIKELY DUE TO MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE LAKES.
MADE THE APPROPRIATED ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST...LOWERED
CHANCES FOR SNOW AND LOWERED OVERALL SNOWFALL EXPECTATIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO EXIT EAST AWAY FROM MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE IS NEARING THE ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THRU
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL
SW FLOW/WAA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...LIMITING ANY RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT
PRECIP TO MAINLY FLURRIES ACROSS OUR CWA ATTM.
LATEST BASE REF IMAGES FROM UPSTREAM RADARS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF
WIDESPREAD SNOW TAKING SHAPE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN IN
ADVANCE OF THE LOW CENTER AND COLD FRONT. BOTH THE RAP AND THE NAM
SHOW THIS LEADING EDGE REACHING OUR WRN CWA JUST BEFORE 00Z...
QUICKLY SPREADING EASTWARD THRU THE REST OF OUR CWA THEREAFTER. WITH
DELTA T`S OF AROUND 10 DEGREES...SUSPECT LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF SW
FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN (I.E. OUR FAR WRN CWA) MAY VERY WELL SEE
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ONCE INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
ACTIVATE SEEDER/FEEDER PROCESSES ALOFT PER LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND CROSS SECTIONS. WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THIS TAKING SHAPE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW DEVELOPING EARLY THIS EVENING
ONCE MID LEVELS MOISTEN.
CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORIES ACROSS ERN UPR AND NW LWR MICHIGAN
REMAIN IN LINE WITH LATEST MODEL TRENDS...AND IN COORDINATION WITH
GRR...WILL KEEP ALL HEADLINES IN TACT. STILL EXPECT A GENERAL 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW FOR THESE AREAS...TAPERING TO LESS THAN AN INCH
ACROSS NE LWR MICHIGAN AWAY FROM ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT. CERTAINLY THE
GUSTY SW WINDS WILL PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...AND MAKE
OVERALL DRIVING CONDITIONS RATHER HAZARDOUS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...WHICH DECIDEDLY THROWS THIS EVENT INTO ADVISORY TERRITORY
DESPITE BORDERLINE SNOW AMOUNTS. TEMPS WILL STAY NEARLY STEADY
TONIGHT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S THANKS TO WAA AND AMPLE CLOUD
COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
FORECAST CHALLENGE: SEVERAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES, BRINGING POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION TYPE PROBLEMS, AND LAKE
EFFECT.
(1/28)THURSDAY...THE CLIPPER SYSTEM IS IN EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT
12Z. AS IT MOVES EAST IN THE MORNING, THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP QUITE A BIT BY 18Z, AND WE START GETTING NW WINDS OF 15-
20 KNOTS ACROSS N LOWER AND E UPPER. THIS GETS THE LES GOING AS THE
850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND -10C BY 00Z. NW TO NNW SNOW BANDS
WILL BEGIN TO FORM. HOWEVER, AS THE CLIPPER MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES, DESPITE THE NORTH TO NNW WIND FLOW AND CHILLY AIR
ACROSS LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN, THERE IS VERY DRY AIR TRAILING
THIS SYSTEM AS THE 850-700 MB RH FALLS TO LESS THAN 15% UPSTREAM IN
W UPPER AND WISCONSIN BY 06Z. THE DRY AIR IS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AS WE GET INTO THE OVERNIGHT, WITH THE RH IN THE LAYER AT 10% OR
LESS BY 12Z. WILL THERE BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS? YES, BUT THE INTENSITY
OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT BY 12Z. SO LIGHT AMOUNTS
DURING THE DAY AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST AND MINOR AMOUNTS, MAINLY
NEAR TVC AS THE DRY AIR DIMINISHES THE SNOW SHOWERS.
(1/29)FRIDAY...THERE COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES NEAR TVC AS THE WINDS
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT THE DRY AIR IS FULLY IN CONTROL AND
MINIMIZING THE SNOW PRODUCTION POTENTIAL. SO WILL LEAVE THE MORNING
DRY. AFTER 18Z, THE RIDGE SFC AND 850 MB AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS TURNS THE 1000-850 MB LAYER WINDS FROM WNW TO SW IN A
HURRY. BY 00Z, THE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SW, BUT THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN N LAKE MICHIGAN ARE EXPECTED TO BE -8C(NEAR ST.
IGNACE) OR WARMER. WITH THE WATER TEMPERATURES AROUND +3C THEN WE
DON`T HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO EVEN GET SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL LITTLE TO NO LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN THE
EVENING, BUT THE MAIN SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO THE REGION, WITH THE
WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF US AND THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THE SNOW
GETTING INTO E UPPER AND NW LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY. NOW THEY JUST
BARELY GET THE CHANCE FOR SNOW INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY. FOR MORE
MOST PLACES IT WILL BE A DRY DAY.
AFTER 00Z, THE NEXT CLIPPER, WHICH HAS ITS BAROCLINIC ZONE STRUNG
OUT OVER THE STATE FROM NW TO SE, DROPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND THE SNOW BEGINS TO SPREAD OVER THE STATE. MOST OF THE FOCUS WILL
BE WITH THE MOISTURE WHICH LOOKS LIKE UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS BEING A
CLIPPER SYSTEM, IT`S PRETTY MOISTURE STARVED, SO THE AMOUNTS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT OVER E UPPER AND MINOR TO LIGHT OVER N LOWER.
(1/30)SATURDAY...THE CLIPPER TURNS ITS CORNER NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR, AND BEGINS HEADING EAST INTO QUEBEC BEFORE ITS CORE EVER
GETS TO LAKE SUPERIOR. DRY AIR AT 850 MB WILL PUSH UP INTO THE S
LOWER, AS THE CLIPPER MOVES OUT, AND THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE ON
THE RISE. WINDS REMAIN SW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, SO WILL EXPECT THE
SYSTEM PRECIPITATION (MAINLY SNOW) WILL CONTINUE OUT BY THE
AFTERNOON, AND THE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA, BEFORE SUNSET.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
THINGS CONTINUE TO LOOK ACTIVE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A BRIEF
WARMING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS COULD GET
TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING...RESULTING IN SOME RAIN/MIX PRECIP ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF ARRIVING SNOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH TIMING ISSUES THIS FAR OUT. A SYSTEM IN THE TUE/WED
TIME FRAME IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE MAIN STORY OF THIS EXTENDED. THIS
IS AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SYSTEM...WITH A SOUTHERLY TRACK THAT WILL
ENABLE A GOOD TAP OF GULF MOISTURE TO GO ALONG WITH THE STRONG
FORCING. IT IS A BIT EARLY FOR SPECIFICS...BUT THIS IS A STORM TO
KEEP AN EYE ON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST AND CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW.
SOLID MVFR CIGS ARE STARTING TO ERODE FROM THE WEST WHERE CLOUD
LAYER WAA WAS OCCURRING. WE CONTINUE TO WAA INTO THAT LAYER WHILE
WINDS/WIND SHEAR INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. GOTTA BELIEVE THE
WAA AND STRONGER WINDS/MIXING WILL KEEP CIGS VFR UNTIL OVERNIGHT
WHEN A SFC TROUGH FROM WISCONSIN BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR. A
TIGHTLY WOUND UP ALBERTA CLIPPER IS QUICKLY BRINGING IN THE
STRONGER WINDS...AS WELL AS A BAND OF WAA SNOWS. CONFIDENCE LESS
THAN AVERAGE ON THE VSBY IMPACT OF THE LIGHT SNOW AND WIND
COMBINATION THAT ARRIVES 01Z-03Z. WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE LATEST
FORECAST IDEAS...BUT THOUGHTS ARE SWIRLING THAT MAYBE VSBYS WILL
NOT BE AS BAD. LAKE CONTRIBUTIONS ARE MARGINAL...BUT HI RES DATA
SUGGESTS THAT IT`S ENOUGH TO KEEP SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW GOING
ACROSS NW LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT. LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WE WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT PLOW THROUGH BRINGING A BONA
FIDE PERIOD OF SNOW. LOW LEVEL CAA DOESN`T EVEN APPEAR TO BE
ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
GONNA RIDE 1-3 INCHES ACROSS NW LOWER THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER
INCH THURSDAY. SNOWFALL RATES LOW WITH SNOW RATIOS 13-15:1.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REACH GALE FORCE ALONG OUR LAKE MICHIGAN
NEARSHORE AREAS TONIGHT AS SW WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING JUST NORTH OF MICHIGAN. SCA CRITERIA WINDS AND WAVES ARE
EXPECTED FOR OUR LAKE HURON NEARSHORE AREAS. CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH
GALE FORCE ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NEARSHORE AREAS ON THURSDAY AS
WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AND STRENGTHEN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MUCH OF OUR
NEARSHORE AREA THRU THURSDAY...RESULTING IN REDUCED VSBYS.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DICKSON
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...MAYHEW
AVIATION...DICKSON
MARINE...MLR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1031 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
RATHER SUBSTANTIAL UPDATES THIS EVENING. WAA BAND OF SNOWS THAT
ROLLED THROUGH AMOUNTED TO VERY LITTLE...AND CONDITIONS ARE LESS
THAN MARGINAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT. THERE IS A VORT
MAX SWINGING DOWN INTO FAR NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND THERE WILL BE A
AN UPTICK IN THE SNOWFALL. THERE WAS SOME CONSIDERATION FOR
KEEPING THE ADVISORIES FOR EASTERN UPPER AND EMMET COUNTY TO TAKE
THIS INTO ACCOUNT. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL COMBINATION OF SNOW AND
WIND ON REDUCED VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LESS. THUS...THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE CLIPPER`S COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION 12-16Z THURSDAY...AND WILL HAVE
MINIMAL EFFECT FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKES...BUT ACROSS NW LOWER
AND CHIPPEWA COUNTY...A BURST OF SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IS
LIKELY DUE TO MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE LAKES.
MADE THE APPROPRIATED ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST...LOWERED
CHANCES FOR SNOW AND LOWERED OVERALL SNOWFALL EXPECTATIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO EXIT EAST AWAY FROM MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE IS NEARING THE ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THRU
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL
SW FLOW/WAA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...LIMITING ANY RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT
PRECIP TO MAINLY FLURRIES ACROSS OUR CWA ATTM.
LATEST BASE REF IMAGES FROM UPSTREAM RADARS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF
WIDESPREAD SNOW TAKING SHAPE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN IN
ADVANCE OF THE LOW CENTER AND COLD FRONT. BOTH THE RAP AND THE NAM
SHOW THIS LEADING EDGE REACHING OUR WRN CWA JUST BEFORE 00Z...
QUICKLY SPREADING EASTWARD THRU THE REST OF OUR CWA THEREAFTER. WITH
DELTA T`S OF AROUND 10 DEGREES...SUSPECT LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF SW
FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN (I.E. OUR FAR WRN CWA) MAY VERY WELL SEE
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ONCE INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
ACTIVATE SEEDER/FEEDER PROCESSES ALOFT PER LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND CROSS SECTIONS. WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THIS TAKING SHAPE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW DEVELOPING EARLY THIS EVENING
ONCE MID LEVELS MOISTEN.
CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORIES ACROSS ERN UPR AND NW LWR MICHIGAN
REMAIN IN LINE WITH LATEST MODEL TRENDS...AND IN COORDINATION WITH
GRR...WILL KEEP ALL HEADLINES IN TACT. STILL EXPECT A GENERAL 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW FOR THESE AREAS...TAPERING TO LESS THAN AN INCH
ACROSS NE LWR MICHIGAN AWAY FROM ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT. CERTAINLY THE
GUSTY SW WINDS WILL PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...AND MAKE
OVERALL DRIVING CONDITIONS RATHER HAZARDOUS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...WHICH DECIDEDLY THROWS THIS EVENT INTO ADVISORY TERRITORY
DESPITE BORDERLINE SNOW AMOUNTS. TEMPS WILL STAY NEARLY STEADY
TONIGHT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S THANKS TO WAA AND AMPLE CLOUD
COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
FORECAST CHALLENGE: SEVERAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES, BRINGING POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION TYPE PROBLEMS, AND LAKE
EFFECT.
(1/28)THURSDAY...THE CLIPPER SYSTEM IS IN EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT
12Z. AS IT MOVES EAST IN THE MORNING, THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP QUITE A BIT BY 18Z, AND WE START GETTING NW WINDS OF 15-
20 KNOTS ACROSS N LOWER AND E UPPER. THIS GETS THE LES GOING AS THE
850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND -10C BY 00Z. NW TO NNW SNOW BANDS
WILL BEGIN TO FORM. HOWEVER, AS THE CLIPPER MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES, DESPITE THE NORTH TO NNW WIND FLOW AND CHILLY AIR
ACROSS LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN, THERE IS VERY DRY AIR TRAILING
THIS SYSTEM AS THE 850-700 MB RH FALLS TO LESS THAN 15% UPSTREAM IN
W UPPER AND WISCONSIN BY 06Z. THE DRY AIR IS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AS WE GET INTO THE OVERNIGHT, WITH THE RH IN THE LAYER AT 10% OR
LESS BY 12Z. WILL THERE BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS? YES, BUT THE INTENSITY
OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT BY 12Z. SO LIGHT AMOUNTS
DURING THE DAY AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST AND MINOR AMOUNTS, MAINLY
NEAR TVC AS THE DRY AIR DIMINISHES THE SNOW SHOWERS.
(1/29)FRIDAY...THERE COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES NEAR TVC AS THE WINDS
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT THE DRY AIR IS FULLY IN CONTROL AND
MINIMIZING THE SNOW PRODUCTION POTENTIAL. SO WILL LEAVE THE MORNING
DRY. AFTER 18Z, THE RIDGE SFC AND 850 MB AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS TURNS THE 1000-850 MB LAYER WINDS FROM WNW TO SW IN A
HURRY. BY 00Z, THE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SW, BUT THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN N LAKE MICHIGAN ARE EXPECTED TO BE -8C(NEAR ST.
IGNACE) OR WARMER. WITH THE WATER TEMPERATURES AROUND +3C THEN WE
DON`T HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO EVEN GET SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL LITTLE TO NO LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN THE
EVENING, BUT THE MAIN SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO THE REGION, WITH THE
WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF US AND THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THE SNOW
GETTING INTO E UPPER AND NW LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY. NOW THEY JUST
BARELY GET THE CHANCE FOR SNOW INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY. FOR MORE
MOST PLACES IT WILL BE A DRY DAY.
AFTER 00Z, THE NEXT CLIPPER, WHICH HAS ITS BAROCLINIC ZONE STRUNG
OUT OVER THE STATE FROM NW TO SE, DROPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND THE SNOW BEGINS TO SPREAD OVER THE STATE. MOST OF THE FOCUS WILL
BE WITH THE MOISTURE WHICH LOOKS LIKE UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS BEING A
CLIPPER SYSTEM, IT`S PRETTY MOISTURE STARVED, SO THE AMOUNTS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT OVER E UPPER AND MINOR TO LIGHT OVER N LOWER.
(1/30)SATURDAY...THE CLIPPER TURNS ITS CORNER NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR, AND BEGINS HEADING EAST INTO QUEBEC BEFORE ITS CORE EVER
GETS TO LAKE SUPERIOR. DRY AIR AT 850 MB WILL PUSH UP INTO THE S
LOWER, AS THE CLIPPER MOVES OUT, AND THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE ON
THE RISE. WINDS REMAIN SW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, SO WILL EXPECT THE
SYSTEM PRECIPITATION (MAINLY SNOW) WILL CONTINUE OUT BY THE
AFTERNOON, AND THE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA, BEFORE SUNSET.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
THINGS CONTINUE TO LOOK ACTIVE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A BRIEF
WARMING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS COULD GET
TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING...RESULTING IN SOME RAIN/MIX PRECIP ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF ARRIVING SNOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH TIMING ISSUES THIS FAR OUT. A SYSTEM IN THE TUE/WED
TIME FRAME IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE MAIN STORY OF THIS EXTENDED. THIS
IS AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SYSTEM...WITH A SOUTHERLY TRACK THAT WILL
ENABLE A GOOD TAP OF GULF MOISTURE TO GO ALONG WITH THE STRONG
FORCING. IT IS A BIT EARLY FOR SPECIFICS...BUT THIS IS A STORM TO
KEEP AN EYE ON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST AND CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW.
SOLID MVFR CIGS ARE STARTING TO ERODE FROM THE WEST WHERE CLOUD
LAYER WAA WAS OCCURRING. WE CONTINUE TO WAA INTO THAT LAYER WHILE
WINDS/WIND SHEAR INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. GOTTA BELIEVE THE
WAA AND STRONGER WINDS/MIXING WILL KEEP CIGS VFR UNTIL OVERNIGHT
WHEN A SFC TROUGH FROM WISCONSIN BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR. A
TIGHTLY WOUND UP ALBERTA CLIPPER IS QUICKLY BRINGING IN THE
STRONGER WINDS...AS WELL AS A BAND OF WAA SNOWS. CONFIDENCE LESS
THAN AVERAGE ON THE VSBY IMPACT OF THE LIGHT SNOW AND WIND
COMBINATION THAT ARRIVES 01Z-03Z. WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE LATEST
FORECAST IDEAS...BUT THOUGHTS ARE SWIRLING THAT MAYBE VSBYS WILL
NOT BE AS BAD. LAKE CONTRIBUTIONS ARE MARGINAL...BUT HI RES DATA
SUGGESTS THAT IT`S ENOUGH TO KEEP SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW GOING
ACROSS NW LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT. LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WE WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT PLOW THROUGH BRINGING A BONA
FIDE PERIOD OF SNOW. LOW LEVEL CAA DOESN`T EVEN APPEAR TO BE
ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
GONNA RIDE 1-3 INCHES ACROSS NW LOWER THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER
INCH THURSDAY. SNOWFALL RATES LOW WITH SNOW RATIOS 13-15:1.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REACH GALE FORCE ALONG OUR LAKE MICHIGAN
NEARSHORE AREAS TONIGHT AS SW WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING JUST NORTH OF MICHIGAN. SCA CRITERIA WINDS AND WAVES ARE
EXPECTED FOR OUR LAKE HURON NEARSHORE AREAS. CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH
GALE FORCE ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NEARSHORE AREAS ON THURSDAY AS
WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AND STRENGTHEN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MUCH OF OUR
NEARSHORE AREA THRU THURSDAY...RESULTING IN REDUCED VSBYS.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SMD
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...MAYHEW
AVIATION...DICKSON
MARINE...MLR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
928 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
.UPDATE...
SATELLITE PRESENTATION INDICATES A POWERFUL SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE EVENING. THIS SYSTEM
IS RESPONSIBLE FOR DRAWING A PLUME OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR THROUGH
THE MID LEVELS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS SHALLOW
BUT ADEQUATE FOR A BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ON RADAR THAT WILL
BATTLE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE 00Z APX
SOUNDING IS A GOOD DEPICTION OF THE PARTIAL SATURATION EXPECTED TO
OCCUR FROM THE FORMIDABLE STARTING POINT SHOWN IN THE DTX
SOUNDING. MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP AND NAM INDICATE DRY AIR
WILL HOLD ON AROUND THE 850 MB LAYER OVER MUCH OF SE MICHIGAN WITH
BETTER CHANCES FOR POCKETS OF SATURATION FROM FLINT THROUGH THE
TRI CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB. EXPECT GENEROUS COVERAGE OF VIRGA
ON RADAR BUT JUST A CHANCE OF FLURRIES SOUTH THROUGH METRO DETROIT
DURING THE NIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN SWEEP THE MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS TO OUR EAST BY SUNRISE LEAVING LOW CLOUDS TO
SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION DURING THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 611 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
MVFR STRATUS WILL BRIEFLY ERODE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS
MODERATING SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE WORKS ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN...BRINGING LOW LEVEL CLEARING AROUND 01Z-02Z. LOWER VFR
DECK WITH SHORTWAVE WILL ALREADY BE SINKING SE INTO AREA...WITH A
TRANSITION BACK TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AS A BAND OF SHSN MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA...05Z-09Z OR SO. AFTER A LULL...SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN -SHSN WILL
DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA MID/LATE THU AM...DISSIPATING LATE IN
THE FORECAST. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO GUSTY...20+
KNOT SW FLOW INTO 06Z-08Z OR SO WITH KMBS PROBABLY CLOSER TO 25 KTS.
DIURNAL MIXING WILL BRING SOME GUSTS BACK MIDDAY THURSDAY...BUT
WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG PASSING SURFACE FRONT WILL LEAD TO
A QUICK DYING OF WINDS 21Z-00Z.
FOR DTW...MVFR STRATUS SHOULD ERODE TO SCT BY 02Z WITH LOWER VFR TO
MVFR THEN WORKING BACK INTO TERMINAL 07Z OR SO WITH SHSNS. AT LEAST
BKN MVFR CIGS WITH SCT -SHSNS WILL THEN BE COMMON INTO THU PM AS
SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LAGS INITIAL SURFACE TROUGH
PASSAGE TONIGHT BY SOME 6 TO 8 HOURS...NOT CROSSING THE AREA UNTIL
00Z OR SO.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CIGS BLO 5KFT THRU 02Z...LOW 02Z-07Z THIS EVENING...HIGH
AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
* HIGH FOR PTYPE AS SNOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 328 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
DISCUSSION...
CLIPPER SYSTEM JUST NORTH OF MINNESOTA WILL TRACK TO EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 12Z THURSDAY THEN TO EAST OF LAKE HURON BY 00Z FRI.
TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPS. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED AS SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BLOCKS ANY DECENT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTH. THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACTIVITY TONIGHT WILL BE
CONFINED CLOSER TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM MAINLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BUT WILL SEE SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND
THUMB. WILL CARRY A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AS COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CLIPPER SWEEPS THROUGH
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPS ALONG WITH
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS
THE LAKE SUPERIOR LIFTING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 40S
MOST LOCALS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD INTO SUNDAY ALONG WITH
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL BRING COLDER AIR FOR MON/TUES. THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM WILL BE A
LARGE AND STRONG DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID WEST
THAT WILL LIFT INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
MIX PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY THAT MAY TRANSITION
TO ALL RAIN OR RAIN MIX WITH SNOW WEDNESDAY.
MARINE...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE WITH SUSTAINED FLOW APPROACHING
30 KNOTS AND GUSTS REACHING GALE FORCE STARTING TONIGHT. A GALE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL LAKE HURON AND OUTER SAGINAW. WINDS
WILL RELAX A BIT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
DROPS THROUGH THE REGION BUT WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE ONCE
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE AND A DAY OF LIGHTER WINDS WILL SETTLE IN FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ362-363-421.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......BT
AVIATION.....DG
DISCUSSION...DRC
MARINE.......DRK
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
904 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT WILL BRING A QUICK BURST OF SNOW TO SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ABOUT SAUGATUCK
NORTHWARD WILL SEE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SNOW TONIGHT THAT MAY
ACCUMULATE TO 1 TO 3 INCHES. A FEW SPOTS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN COULD SEE 4 INCHES. OVERNIGHT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA
ON THURSDAY AND BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO THE PICTURE AGAIN FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SOME LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WE CANCELLED THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS OVER THE CWA AND UPSTREAM IT
CERTAINLY APPEARS THAT WE WON/T SEE THE SNOW WE ORIGINALLY THOUGHT
WOULD OCCUR. MOISTURE IS TOO SHALLOW AND THE CONTRIBUTION FROM THE
LAKE IS TOO WEAK. EVEN THOUGH THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO POINT
TOWARD PCPN OVERNIGHT...THE RAP AND HRRR ARE BASICALLY DRY WHICH
LINES UP WITH THE RADAR. A FEW FLURRIES OR BRIEF SNOW SHOWER ARE
POSSIBLE BUT ACCUMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. WE ALSO DECREASED POPS FOR
THURSDAY MORNING. STILL COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IT SEEMS WE WILL BE SEEING A
BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS CROSS THE ADVISORY AREA DURING THE MID
EVENING HOURS. THEN THE DEEP MOISTURE DROPS OUT SO MORE THAN
LIKELY WE WILL BE SEEING MOSTLY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW GRAINS
OVERNIGHT. THE OTHER ISSUE IS SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE
FREEZING ALONG THE LAKE SHORE BY 10 PM...THAT REACHES US-131 BY 3
TO 4 AM. SO THEN WE WOULD JUST HAVE MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. I
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE CWA BY 10 AM THURSDAY
BUT THE AIR IS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND.... SO I
HAVE MIXED RAIN/SNOW MID MORNING GOING TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL BE TO WET TO BLOW AROUND...SO EVEN
WITH THE WIND I DO NOT FEEL WE NEED BLOWING SNOW IN OUR FORECAST
TONIGHT. BOTTOM LINE IS I UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOMADATE ALL
OF THESE IDEAS. I WILL LEAVE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IS AS
IT DOES MENTION FREEZE DRIZZLE ALREADY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
FOCUS IS ON THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
FAVORED SOUTHWEST FLOW AREAS TONIGHT. WILL BE MAKING NO CHANGES TO
THE GOING HEADLINE. STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME IMPACT FROM
A COUPLE ROUNDS OF QUICK HITTING SNOW TONIGHT. THE HRRR FOR MULTIPLE
RUNS NOW TODAY IS SHOWING SEVERAL BURSTS OF SNOW ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT THAT IS POSSIBLE WITH
DELTA T/S OF 8 TO 11 DEGREE C. STRONG LIFT IS NOTED IN THE BUFKIT
TIME SECTIONS ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. THE LIFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
ONE/TWO PUNCH FROM A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE
AREA TONIGHT. THE FIRST COMES THROUGH IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME WITH
ANOTHER AFTER 06Z. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AT TIMES BUT THE BURST
OF SNOW SHOULD PUT DOWN 1 TO POSSIBLE 4 INCHES OF SNOW. THE HIGHEST
TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE HIGH GROUND ACROSS EASTERN LAKE AND
OSCEOLA COUNTIES.
IMPACTS MAY BE MODULATED SOME HOWEVER BY THE FACT THAT AIR TEMPS ARE
GOING TO BE NEAR FREEZING. ALSO...THE FACT THAT THE BLOWING SNOW
WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY THE WET NATURE OF THE SNOW. OVERNIGHT SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THAT THE DGZ BECOMES UNSATURATED
WITH CONTINUED LIFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER. AGAIN...THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
MAY BE MITIGATED BY THE SLOWING RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT.
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS DELTA T/S PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. MOISTURE DEPTH
IS DECREASING WITH TIME AND THINKING WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT ANYTHING
TOO HEAVY...ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR TWO.
ANOTHER CLIPPER IN THE SERIES ROTATES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND WE
WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN FLANK ONCE AGAIN. 850MB TEMPS ARE TRENDING
TOWARD THE NEED TO INTRODUCE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION. AT THIS POINT
KEPT THINGS ALL LIGHT SNOW WITH CHANCE POPS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
AN ACTIVE WX PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FCST
PERIOD. ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF MIXED LIGHT RAIN
AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN ON SUNDAY AND BRING
RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE 40S.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAP LOTS OF GULF MOISTURE
AS IT ADVANCES NE TOWARD OUR AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ICE GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WHICH WILL ALSO FEATURE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH BY
TUESDAY.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND
EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER THE GENERAL NOTION IS
UNDOUBTEDLY THERE THAT IT COULD POTENTIALLY BRING A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF WINTRY PCPN LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE EVOLUTION OF THAT SYSTEM CLOSELY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL MAY CLEAR OUT OF THE TAF SITES FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO THIS EVENING BUT THAT FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND WILL MOVE IN
AFTER 02Z MKG AND REACH JXN BY 06Z TO 09Z. THIS BAND WILL BE
NARROW AND MOSTLY WILL BE SNOW. HOWEVER AFTER IT MOVES THROUGH WE
SHOULD SEE FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE MOISTURE IS NOT DEEP ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN SNOW FLAKES... HOWEVER... FOR MKG IT WILL ALREADY BE
ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE THEY WOULD SEE FREEZING DRIZZLE SO THEY WILL
SEE JUST LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. DURING THE MID MORNING
HOURS ALL AREA WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING AT THE SURFACE.... COULD BE
A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW THEN. THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOOON. BOTTOM LINE IS MVFR
CIGS GOING TO IFR IN SNOW 03Z TO 06Z...THE IFR FREEZING DRIZZLE
LOW CIGS TILL MID MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE COLD
FRONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
ISSUED A GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY AS IT IS EXPECTED THAT WINDS WILL
SURGE TO GALE FORCE THIS EVENING. THERE IS ABOUT A 6 HOUR WINDOW
TONIGHT WHERE THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TO THE POINT THAT WE ARE
EXPECTING 35-40 KNOT GALES. THE STRONGER GALES WILL BE ALONG THE
HIGHER BLUFFS OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKESHORE...NORTH OF GRAND
HAVEN. WAVES SHOULD BUILD TOWARD 10 FEET OVERNIGHT.
THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY COME DOWN BELOW GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT...BUT
REMAIN UP IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE BOTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED LAST NIGHT AND THAT REMAINS IN
EFFECT NOW FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 205 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. FLOODING CONCERNS ARE
MINIMAL WITH MINOR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
5 DAYS. THE MAIN TOPIC IS MORE THAN LIKELY WHAT COMES TOWARD THE
END OF THE LONG TERM (NEXT WEEK).
A FEW ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BETWEEN NOW AND THIS WEEKEND. EACH ROUND IS EXPECTED
TO BRING MINOR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. SNOWFALL IS THE LIKELY MODE
OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY. MILDER WEATHER WILL BE PUSHING
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THIS WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO
THE 40S BY SUNDAY...IF NOT AS EARLY AS SATURDAY. RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN BY LATE SUNDAY.
THE REAL CONCERN EXTENDS INTO NEXT WEEK WITH WHAT MAY BE A RATHER
POTENT SYSTEM. MANY QUESTIONS STILL EXIST WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND STORM TRACK. THAT SAID...THE STORM LOOKS TO BE EQUIPPED WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE. IF THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS RAIN...WE COULD
BE LOOKING AT RIVER RISES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
LMZ844>849.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...04
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
658 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO EXIT EAST AWAY FROM MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE IS NEARING THE ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THRU
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL
SW FLOW/WAA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...LIMITING ANY RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT
PRECIP TO MAINLY FLURRIES ACROSS OUR CWA ATTM.
LATEST BASE REF IMAGES FROM UPSTREAM RADARS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF
WIDESPREAD SNOW TAKING SHAPE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN IN
ADVANCE OF THE LOW CENTER AND COLD FRONT. BOTH THE RAP AND THE NAM
SHOW THIS LEADING EDGE REACHING OUR WRN CWA JUST BEFORE 00Z...
QUICKLY SPREADING EASTWARD THRU THE REST OF OUR CWA THEREAFTER. WITH
DELTA T`S OF AROUND 10 DEGREES...SUSPECT LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF SW
FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN (I.E. OUR FAR WRN CWA) MAY VERY WELL SEE
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ONCE INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
ACTIVATE SEEDER/FEEDER PROCESSES ALOFT PER LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND CROSS SECTIONS. WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THIS TAKING SHAPE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW DEVELOPING EARLY THIS EVENING
ONCE MID LEVELS MOISTEN.
CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORIES ACROSS ERN UPR AND NW LWR MICHIGAN
REMAIN IN LINE WITH LATEST MODEL TRENDS...AND IN COORDINATION WITH
GRR...WILL KEEP ALL HEADLINES IN TACT. STILL EXPECT A GENERAL 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW FOR THESE AREAS...TAPERING TO LESS THAN AN INCH
ACROSS NE LWR MICHIGAN AWAY FROM ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT. CERTAINLY THE
GUSTY SW WINDS WILL PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...AND MAKE
OVERALL DRIVING CONDITIONS RATHER HAZARDOUS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...WHICH DECIDEDLY THROWS THIS EVENT INTO ADVISORY TERRITORY
DESPITE BORDERLINE SNOW AMOUNTS. TEMPS WILL STAY NEARLY STEADY
TONIGHT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S THANKS TO WAA AND AMPLE CLOUD
COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
FORECAST CHALLENGE: SEVERAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES, BRINGING POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION TYPE PROBLEMS, AND LAKE
EFFECT.
(1/28)THURSDAY...THE CLIPPER SYSTEM IS IN EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT
12Z. AS IT MOVES EAST IN THE MORNING, THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP QUITE A BIT BY 18Z, AND WE START GETTING NW WINDS OF 15-
20 KNOTS ACROSS N LOWER AND E UPPER. THIS GETS THE LES GOING AS THE
850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND -10C BY 00Z. NW TO NNW SNOW BANDS
WILL BEGIN TO FORM. HOWEVER, AS THE CLIPPER MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES, DESPITE THE NORTH TO NNW WIND FLOW AND CHILLY AIR
ACROSS LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN, THERE IS VERY DRY AIR TRAILING
THIS SYSTEM AS THE 850-700 MB RH FALLS TO LESS THAN 15% UPSTREAM IN
W UPPER AND WISCONSIN BY 06Z. THE DRY AIR IS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AS WE GET INTO THE OVERNIGHT, WITH THE RH IN THE LAYER AT 10% OR
LESS BY 12Z. WILL THERE BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS? YES, BUT THE INTENSITY
OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT BY 12Z. SO LIGHT AMOUNTS
DURING THE DAY AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST AND MINOR AMOUNTS, MAINLY
NEAR TVC AS THE DRY AIR DIMINISHES THE SNOW SHOWERS.
(1/29)FRIDAY...THERE COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES NEAR TVC AS THE WINDS
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT THE DRY AIR IS FULLY IN CONTROL AND
MINIMIZING THE SNOW PRODUCTION POTENTIAL. SO WILL LEAVE THE MORNING
DRY. AFTER 18Z, THE RIDGE SFC AND 850 MB AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS TURNS THE 1000-850 MB LAYER WINDS FROM WNW TO SW IN A
HURRY. BY 00Z, THE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SW, BUT THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN N LAKE MICHIGAN ARE EXPECTED TO BE -8C(NEAR ST.
IGNACE) OR WARMER. WITH THE WATER TEMPERATURES AROUND +3C THEN WE
DON`T HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO EVEN GET SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL LITTLE TO NO LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN THE
EVENING, BUT THE MAIN SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO THE REGION, WITH THE
WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF US AND THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THE SNOW
GETTING INTO E UPPER AND NW LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY. NOW THEY JUST
BARELY GET THE CHANCE FOR SNOW INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY. FOR MORE
MOST PLACES IT WILL BE A DRY DAY.
AFTER 00Z, THE NEXT CLIPPER, WHICH HAS ITS BAROCLINIC ZONE STRUNG
OUT OVER THE STATE FROM NW TO SE, DROPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND THE SNOW BEGINS TO SPREAD OVER THE STATE. MOST OF THE FOCUS WILL
BE WITH THE MOISTURE WHICH LOOKS LIKE UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS BEING A
CLIPPER SYSTEM, IT`S PRETTY MOISTURE STARVED, SO THE AMOUNTS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT OVER E UPPER AND MINOR TO LIGHT OVER N LOWER.
(1/30)SATURDAY...THE CLIPPER TURNS ITS CORNER NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR, AND BEGINS HEADING EAST INTO QUEBEC BEFORE ITS CORE EVER
GETS TO LAKE SUPERIOR. DRY AIR AT 850 MB WILL PUSH UP INTO THE S
LOWER, AS THE CLIPPER MOVES OUT, AND THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE ON
THE RISE. WINDS REMAIN SW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, SO WILL EXPECT THE
SYSTEM PRECIPITATION (MAINLY SNOW) WILL CONTINUE OUT BY THE
AFTERNOON, AND THE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA, BEFORE SUNSET.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
THINGS CONTINUE TO LOOK ACTIVE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A BRIEF
WARMING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS COULD GET
TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING...RESULTING IN SOME RAIN/MIX PRECIP ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF ARRIVING SNOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH TIMING ISSUES THIS FAR OUT. A SYSTEM IN THE TUE/WED
TIME FRAME IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE MAIN STORY OF THIS EXTENDED. THIS
IS AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SYSTEM...WITH A SOUTHERLY TRACK THAT WILL
ENABLE A GOOD TAP OF GULF MOISTURE TO GO ALONG WITH THE STRONG
FORCING. IT IS A BIT EARLY FOR SPECIFICS...BUT THIS IS A STORM TO
KEEP AN EYE ON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST AND CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW.
SOLID MVFR CIGS ARE STARTING TO ERODE FROM THE WEST WHERE CLOUD
LAYER WAA WAS OCCURRING. WE CONTINUE TO WAA INTO THAT LAYER WHILE
WINDS/WIND SHEAR INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. GOTTA BELIEVE THE
WAA AND STRONGER WINDS/MIXING WILL KEEP CIGS VFR UNTIL OVERNIGHT
WHEN A SFC TROUGH FROM WISCONSIN BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR. A
TIGHTLY WOUND UP ALBERTA CLIPPER IS QUICKLY BRINGING IN THE
STRONGER WINDS...AS WELL AS A BAND OF WAA SNOWS. CONFIDENCE LESS
THAN AVERAGE ON THE VSBY IMPACT OF THE LIGHT SNOW AND WIND
COMBINATION THAT ARRIVES 01Z-03Z. WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE LATEST
FORECAST IDEAS...BUT THOUGHTS ARE SWIRLING THAT MAYBE VSBYS WILL
NOT BE AS BAD. LAKE CONTRIBUTIONS ARE MARGINAL...BUT HI RES DATA
SUGGESTS THAT IT`S ENOUGH TO KEEP SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW GOING
ACROSS NW LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT. LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WE WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT PLOW THROUGH BRINGING A BONA
FIDE PERIOD OF SNOW. LOW LEVEL CAA DOESN`T EVEN APPEAR TO BE
ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
GONNA RIDE 1-3 INCHES ACROSS NW LOWER THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER
INCH THURSDAY. SNOWFALL RATES LOW WITH SNOW RATIOS 13-15:1.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REACH GALE FORCE ALONG OUR LAKE MICHIGAN
NEARSHORE AREAS TONIGHT AS SW WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING JUST NORTH OF MICHIGAN. SCA CRITERIA WINDS AND WAVES ARE
EXPECTED FOR OUR LAKE HURON NEARSHORE AREAS. CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH
GALE FORCE ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NEARSHORE AREAS ON THURSDAY AS
WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AND STRENGTHEN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MUCH OF OUR
NEARSHORE AREA THRU THURSDAY...RESULTING IN REDUCED VSBYS.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ008-015-
016-019>021-025-026-031-032.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...MAYHEW
AVIATION...DICKSON
MARINE...MLR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
627 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT WILL BRING A QUICK BURST OF SNOW TO SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ABOUT SAUGATUCK
NORTHWARD WILL SEE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SNOW TONIGHT THAT MAY
ACCUMULATE TO 1 TO 3 INCHES. A FEW SPOTS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN COULD SEE 4 INCHES. OVERNIGHT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA
ON THURSDAY AND BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO THE PICTURE AGAIN FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SOME LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IT SEEMS WE WILL BE SEEING A
BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS CROSS THE ADVISORY AREA DURING THE MID
EVENING HOURS. THEN THE DEEP MOISTURE DROPS OUT SO MORE THAN
LIKELY WE WILL BE SEEING MOSTLY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW GRAINS
OVERNIGHT. THE OTHER ISSUE IS SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE
FREEZING ALONG THE LAKE SHORE BY 10 PM...THAT REACHES US-131 BY 3
TO 4 AM. SO THEN WE WOULD JUST HAVE MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. I
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE CWA BY 10 AM THURSDAY
BUT THE AIR IS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND.... SO I
HAVE MIXED RAIN/SNOW MID MORNING GOING TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL BE TO WET TO BLOW AROUND...SO EVEN
WITH THE WIND I DO NOT FEEL WE NEED BLOWING SNOW IN OUR FORECAST
TONIGHT. BOTTOM LINE IS I UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOMADATE ALL
OF THESE IDEAS. I WILL LEAVE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IS AS
IT DOES MENTION FREEZE DRIZZLE ALREADY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
FOCUS IS ON THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
FAVORED SOUTHWEST FLOW AREAS TONIGHT. WILL BE MAKING NO CHANGES TO
THE GOING HEADLINE. STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME IMPACT FROM
A COUPLE ROUNDS OF QUICK HITTING SNOW TONIGHT. THE HRRR FOR MULTIPLE
RUNS NOW TODAY IS SHOWING SEVERAL BURSTS OF SNOW ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT THAT IS POSSIBLE WITH
DELTA T/S OF 8 TO 11 DEGREE C. STRONG LIFT IS NOTED IN THE BUFKIT
TIME SECTIONS ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. THE LIFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
ONE/TWO PUNCH FROM A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE
AREA TONIGHT. THE FIRST COMES THROUGH IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME WITH
ANOTHER AFTER 06Z. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AT TIMES BUT THE BURST
OF SNOW SHOULD PUT DOWN 1 TO POSSIBLE 4 INCHES OF SNOW. THE HIGHEST
TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE HIGH GROUND ACROSS EASTERN LAKE AND
OSCEOLA COUNTIES.
IMPACTS MAY BE MODULATED SOME HOWEVER BY THE FACT THAT AIR TEMPS ARE
GOING TO BE NEAR FREEZING. ALSO...THE FACT THAT THE BLOWING SNOW
WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY THE WET NATURE OF THE SNOW. OVERNIGHT SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THAT THE DGZ BECOMES UNSATURATED
WITH CONTINUED LIFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER. AGAIN...THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
MAY BE MITIGATED BY THE SLOWING RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT.
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS DELTA T/S PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. MOISTURE DEPTH
IS DECREASING WITH TIME AND THINKING WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT ANYTHING
TOO HEAVY...ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR TWO.
ANOTHER CLIPPER IN THE SERIES ROTATES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND WE
WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN FLANK ONCE AGAIN. 850MB TEMPS ARE TRENDING
TOWARD THE NEED TO INTRODUCE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION. AT THIS POINT
KEPT THINGS ALL LIGHT SNOW WITH CHANCE POPS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
AN ACTIVE WX PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FCST
PERIOD. ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF MIXED LIGHT RAIN
AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN ON SUNDAY AND BRING
RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE 40S.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAP LOTS OF GULF MOISTURE
AS IT ADVANCES NE TOWARD OUR AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ICE GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WHICH WILL ALSO FEATURE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH BY
TUESDAY.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND
EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER THE GENERAL NOTION IS
UNDOUBTEDLY THERE THAT IT COULD POTENTIALLY BRING A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF WINTRY PCPN LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE EVOLUTION OF THAT SYSTEM CLOSELY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL MAY CLEAR OUT OF THE TAF SITES FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO THIS EVENING BUT THAT FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND WILL MOVE IN
AFTER 02Z MKG AND REACH JXN BY 06Z TO 09Z. THIS BAND WILL BE
NARROW AND MOSTLY WILL BE SNOW. HOWEVER AFTER IT MOVES THROUGH WE
SHOULD SEE FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE MOISTURE IS NOT DEEP ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN SNOW FLAKES... HOWEVER... FOR MKG IT WILL ALREADY BE
ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE THEY WOULD SEE FREEZING DRIZZLE SO THEY WILL
SEE JUST LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. DURING THE MID MORNING
HOURS ALL AREA WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING AT THE SURFACE.... COULD BE
A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW THEN. THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOOON. BOTTOM LINE IS MVFR
CIGS GOING TO IFR IN SNOW 03Z TO 06Z...THE IFR FREEZING DRIZZLE
LOW CIGS TILL MID MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE COLD
FRONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
ISSUED A GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY AS IT IS EXPECTED THAT WINDS WILL
SURGE TO GALE FORCE THIS EVENING. THERE IS ABOUT A 6 HOUR WINDOW
TONIGHT WHERE THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TO THE POINT THAT WE ARE
EXPECTING 35-40 KNOT GALES. THE STRONGER GALES WILL BE ALONG THE
HIGHER BLUFFS OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKESHORE...NORTH OF GRAND
HAVEN. WAVES SHOULD BUILD TOWARD 10 FEET OVERNIGHT.
THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY COME DOWN BELOW GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT...BUT
REMAIN UP IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE BOTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED LAST NIGHT AND THAT REMAINS IN
EFFECT NOW FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 205 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. FLOODING CONCERNS ARE
MINIMAL WITH MINOR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
5 DAYS. THE MAIN TOPIC IS MORE THAN LIKELY WHAT COMES TOWARD THE
END OF THE LONG TERM (NEXT WEEK).
A FEW ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BETWEEN NOW AND THIS WEEKEND. EACH ROUND IS EXPECTED
TO BRING MINOR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. SNOWFALL IS THE LIKELY MODE
OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY. MILDER WEATHER WILL BE PUSHING
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THIS WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO
THE 40S BY SUNDAY...IF NOT AS EARLY AS SATURDAY. RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN BY LATE SUNDAY.
THE REAL CONCERN EXTENDS INTO NEXT WEEK WITH WHAT MAY BE A RATHER
POTENT SYSTEM. MANY QUESTIONS STILL EXIST WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND STORM TRACK. THAT SAID...THE STORM LOOKS TO BE EQUIPPED WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE. IF THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS RAIN...WE COULD
BE LOOKING AT RIVER RISES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ037>039-
043>045-050-056-057-064.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
LMZ844>849.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
406 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR TROF
EXTENDING FM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF UPR RDG
OVER THE ROCKIES. SHRTWV/SFC LO PRES RESPONSIBLE FOR WDSPRD SN THAT
IMPACTED THE CWA LAST NGT INTO THIS MRNG IS EXITING TO THE NE THRU
SE CANADA...BUT ANOTHER SHRTWV DIGGING SE THRU THE UPR
MIDWEST/ACCOMPANYING DPVA AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/DEEP MSTR SHOWN
ON THE 12Z GRB RAOB AS WELL AS LINGERING CYC NNW FLOW OF COLDER AIR
DROPPING H85 TEMPS TOWARD -14C IS MAINTAINING SOME SN MAINLY NEAR LK
SUP. 12Z INL RAOB SHOWS MID LVL DRYING LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SHRTWV...AND BACK EDGE OF COLDER CLD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS DRYING IS PUSHING SEWD THRU THE CWA THIS AFTN.
SN INTENSITIES DIMINISHED QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THIS
DRYING. LOOKING UPSTREAM... THERE IS A SHRTWV OVER WRN CANADA RIDING
OVER THE ROCKIES RDG.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU WED WL BE ON POPS INTO THIS EVNG AND THEN ON
WINDS/POTENTIAL FOR SOME SN ON WED AFTN IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF SHRTWV NOW TOPPING THE ROCKIES RDG.
TNGT...EXPECT SN SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR LK SUP THIS EVNG IN LINGERING
CYC FLOW TO DIMINISH TNGT WITH ARRIVAL OF DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR
DVGC/MORE ACYC LLVL FLOW/WARMING H85 TEMPS ACCOMPANYING SFC RDG AXIS
THAT IS FCST TO FOLLOW INTO THE WRN LKS FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING
SHRTWV. ALTHOUGH THE LES WL PERSIST THRU THE EVNG UNTIL THE PASSAGE
OF THE H85 THERMAL TROF ARND 06Z...SHIFTING WINDS THAT LIMIT BAND
RESIDENCE TIME THRU THE EVNG WL ALSO LIMIT ADDITIONAL SN ACCUMS.
EVEN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SFC RDG AXIS TOWARD 12Z TO THE N OF HI
PRES CENTER BLDG INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...CLRG OF THE LO CLDS
MAY BE LIMITED OR AT LEAST SLOWED AS QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD LINGERS
UPSTREAM IN THE NRN PLAINS UNDER THE RDG AXIS THERE. LINGERING LO
CLDS AND STEADY BACKING WINDS WELL N OF THE SFC HI CENTER SHOULD
LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL...ESPECIALLY IF THE LO CLDS ARE QUITE
PERSISTENT. TENDED TO BUMP UP FCST MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.
WED...SHRTWV NOW RIDING THE ROCKIES RDG IS FCST TO DIG SE INTO NE MN
BY LATE IN THE DAY...WITH ACCOMPANYING DEEP SFC LO MOVING NEAR
THUNDER BAY BY LATE IN THE DAY. AS THE PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE SFC LO
PRES AND DEPARTING SFC HI PRES RDG TIGHTENS...SW H925 WINDS ARE FCST
TO INCRS UP TO 35-40KTS. ALTHOUGH HI STABILITY RELATED TO THE WAA
THAT IS FCST TO BOOST H85 TEMPS UP TO -5C BY 18Z WL LIMIT THE MIXING
OF THIS HIER MOMENTUM TO THE SFC...STILL EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO AT
LEAST REACH 30-35 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK
SUP. ALL THE NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW AREA OF SN IN COMMA TAIL OF THE
SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE CWA W-E IN THE AFTN. SINCE THE COMMA
TAIL/AXIS OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WL BE MOVING STEADILY...MSTR
INFLOW INTO THIS DISTURBANCE WL BE LIMITED PER NAM FCST H85
DEWPTS/H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY...AND SN/WATER RATIOS ARE FCST TO BE
POOR WITH A RATHER HI/THEN DGZ CENTERED ARND 13K FT AGL...EXPECT SN
ACCUMS TO BE AN INCH OR TWO AT THE MOST. CARRIED THE HIER POPS/SN
TOTALS OVER THE NRN CWA CLOSER TO THE SHRTWV TRACK.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
GENERALLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH INTERMITTENT CHANCES
OF SNOW WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED 500MB SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEAST MN/ WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE U.P. TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE GENERALLY KEEPING THE BETTER
FORCING/HEAVIER PRECIPITATION JUST NORTH OF THE CWA MAINLY OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ONTARIO. THE SYSTEM SNOW WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK AND
GENERALLY LIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF PROGGED TO BE AROUND 0.15
INCHES. SNOWFALL RATIOS SHOULD NOT BE THAT IMPRESSIVE EITHER AS THE
MOIST LAYER IN THE DGZ IS ELEVATED BETWEEN ABOUT 700MB AND 6000MB
WITH FAIRLY GUSTY WINDS BELOW THAT LAYER...EFFECTIVELY HELPING TO
SHEAR THE LARGER DENDRITES APART. THIS WOULD LIKELY GIVE SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS SOMEWHERE AROUND 12 TO 15 ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...KEEPING THE SYSTEM SNOW TOTALS BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND THE CHANNELING EFFECT BETWEEN THE KEWEENAW...ISLE ROYALE AND THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN WILL INCREASE THE GALE POTENTIAL IN THOSE AREAS.
GUSTS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY REACH BETWEEN 35 AND
40KNOTS. EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KNOTS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW ALONG
THE SHORELINES AS WELL. THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT THURSDAY
AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD...THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST AND
850MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO THE -12 TO -15C RANGE. THE BIGGEST IMPACT
WOULD BE FOR NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS THURSDAY MORNING AND
THEN NORTH WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD GIVE
THOSE AREAS AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW. AS THE WINDS BECOME
NORTHERLY THERE COULD BE YET ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALES OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND 35 KNOTS.
THE LOW AND TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST THURSDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING A BIT DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN AND THE INVERSION HEIGHT TO
BECOME VERY SHALLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW THE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
BECOME MUCH LIGHTER ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE UPPER PENINSULA FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING DRIER
AIR...LIGHT WINDS AND A VERY BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE NAM/GFS/GEM ARE ALL
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PLACEMENT OF BOTH THE SURFACE FEATURES
AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THE MAIN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT IS THE LAST
FEW RUNS OF THE EC...WHICH HAS EVEN HAD RUN TO RUN ISSUES. LEANING
MORE TOWARD THE GFS...MOISTURE WOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE U.P. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASING ON WAA INTO THE REGION.
THIS WOULD ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY
EVENING...THE GFS/GEM HAVE A DRY SLOT SLIDING ACROSS THE U.P. WHICH
MAY CHANGE THE LIGHT SNOW OVER TO LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE...HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD BE VERY BRIEF AS THE CORE OF THE
SYSTEM SLIDES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND TO SOUTHWEST
QUEBEC BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP SNOW IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. SIMILAR TO THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
SYSTEM...SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 12 TO 15 RANGE
DUE TO THE ELEVATED DGZ ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
COLUMN. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS SHOW AROUND 0.15 TO 0.25 INCHES OF
LIQUID QPF PAINTED OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE U.P. WITH MOST OF THAT
OCCURRING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS ALONG WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WOULD GIVE MOST OF THE AREA
BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF SNOW. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WOULD NOT BE
FAVORABLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS 850MB ARE PROGGED TO BE A BIT
TOO WARM.
THE REMAINING EXTENDED...THE PATTERN ONCE AGAIN BECOMES VERY MESSY
FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF SNOW
WILL DOMINATE THIS TIME PERIOD. THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING AND
INTENSITY DIFFERENCES BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. CONFIDENCE IN
ANY SINGLE MODEL SOLUTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS
POINT...THEREFORE WILL STICK WITH A CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS TO AT
LEAST SHOW THE INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF SNOW FOR THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
EXPECT PREDOMINANT IFR CONDITIONS AT IWD/CMX TO IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS
AFTN WITH PASSAGE OF DISTURBANCE/DEEPER MSTR THAT ENHANCED THE SN
SHOWERS THIS MRNG. BEFORE THE PASSAGE OF THIS DISTURBANCE AT SAW...
VSBYS MAY DROP INTO THE IFR RANGE UNDER SOME LINGERING HEAVIER SHSN
AT TIMES THIS AFTN...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE THERE.
AS THE WINDS BACK TO THE W AND THEN THE SW LATE TNGT AND DRAW DRIER
AIR INTO THE UPR LKS...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE
OVERNGT...EARLIEST AT SAW AND LAST AT CMX...WHERE THE W WIND WL
UPSLOPE AND PROLONG THE LK CLDS/SHSN. GUSTY SW WINDS WL DVLP LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN DEPARTING HI PRES
RDG AND A LO PRES SLIDING INTO NW ONTARIO.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON AS A
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY NORTH WINDS
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS EVENING AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS. THE
NEXT PERIOD FOR STRONGER WINDS WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SW GALES TO 35 KNOTS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS STAY NEAR 30 KNOTS INTO THU AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
SLIDES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FROM CANADA...BRINGING
GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 30 KNOTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. A
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING WINDS LESS THAN 25 KNOTS FOR
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR LESS THAN 25 KNOTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ266-
267.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ TO 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/
WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ162-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
352 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR TROF
EXTENDING FM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF UPR RDG
OVER THE ROCKIES. SHRTWV/SFC LO PRES RESPONSIBLE FOR WDSPRD SN THAT
IMPACTED THE CWA LAST NGT INTO THIS MRNG IS EXITING TO THE NE THRU
SE CANADA...BUT ANOTHER SHRTWV DIGGING SE THRU THE UPR
MIDWEST/ACCOMPANYING DPVA AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/DEEP MSTR SHOWN
ON THE 12Z GRB RAOB AS WELL AS LINGERING CYC NNW FLOW OF COLDER AIR
DROPPING H85 TEMPS TOWARD -14C IS MAINTAINING SOME SN MAINLY NEAR LK
SUP. 12Z INL RAOB SHOWS MID LVL DRYING LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SHRTWV...AND BACK EDGE OF COLDER CLD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS DRYING IS PUSHING SEWD THRU THE CWA THIS AFTN.
SN INTENSITIES DIMINISHED QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THIS
DRYING. LOOKING UPSTREAM... THERE IS A SHRTWV OVER WRN CANADA RIDING
OVER THE ROCKIES RDG.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU WED WL BE ON POPS INTO THIS EVNG AND THEN ON
WINDS/POTENTIAL FOR SOME SN ON WED AFTN IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF SHRTWV NOW TOPPING THE ROCKIES RDG.
TNGT...EXPECT SN SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR LK SUP THIS EVNG IN LINGERING
CYC FLOW TO DIMINISH TNGT WITH ARRIVAL OF DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR
DVGC/MORE ACYC LLVL FLOW/WARMING H85 TEMPS ACCOMPANYING SFC RDG AXIS
THAT IS FCST TO FOLLOW INTO THE WRN LKS FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING
SHRTWV. ALTHOUGH THE LES WL PERSIST THRU THE EVNG UNTIL THE PASSAGE
OF THE H85 THERMAL TROF ARND 06Z...SHIFTING WINDS THAT LIMIT BAND
RESIDENCE TIME THRU THE EVNG WL ALSO LIMIT ADDITIONAL SN ACCUMS.
EVEN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SFC RDG AXIS TOWARD 12Z TO THE N OF HI
PRES CENTER BLDG INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...CLRG OF THE LO CLDS
MAY BE LIMITED OR AT LEAST SLOWED AS QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD LINGERS
UPSTREAM IN THE NRN PLAINS UNDER THE RDG AXIS THERE. LINGERING LO
CLDS AND STEADY BACKING WINDS WELL N OF THE SFC HI CENTER SHOULD
LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL...ESPECIALLY IF THE LO CLDS ARE QUITE
PERSISTENT. TENDED TO BUMP UP FCST MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.
WED...SHRTWV NOW RIDING THE ROCKIES RDG IS FCST TO DIG SE INTO NE MN
BY LATE IN THE DAY...WITH ACCOMPANYING DEEP SFC LO MOVING NEAR
THUNDER BAY BY LATE IN THE DAY. AS THE PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE SFC LO
PRES AND DEPARTING SFC HI PRES RDG TIGHTENS...SW H925 WINDS ARE FCST
TO INCRS UP TO 35-40KTS. ALTHOUGH HI STABILITY RELATED TO THE WAA
THAT IS FCST TO BOOST H85 TEMPS UP TO -5C BY 18Z WL LIMIT THE MIXING
OF THIS HIER MOMENTUM TO THE SFC...STILL EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO AT
LEAST REACH 30-35 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK
SUP. ALL THE NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW AREA OF SN IN COMMA TAIL OF THE
SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE CWA W-E IN THE AFTN. SINCE THE COMMA
TAIL/AXIS OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WL BE MOVING STEADILY...MSTR
INFLOW INTO THIS DISTURBANCE WL BE LIMITED PER NAM FCST H85
DEWPTS/H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY...AND SN/WATER RATIOS ARE FCST TO BE
POOR WITH A RATHER HI/THEN DGZ CENTERED ARND 13K FT AGL...EXPECT SN
ACCUMS TO BE AN INCH OR TWO AT THE MOST. CARRIED THE HIER POPS/SN
TOTALS OVER THE NRN CWA CLOSER TO THE SHRTWV TRACK.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
BRIEF RIDGING WILL BE FOUND ALOFT WEDNESDAY MORNING IN BETWEEN THE
MAIN TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW OVER FAR N QUEBEC THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TO N TX...AND A SECONDARY THROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS
S CENTRAL CANADA. AT THE SFC LOOK FOR INCREASING SW FLOW OUT AHEAD
OF THE CENTRAL CANADIAN LOW. 850MB WINDS WILL JUMP UP OUT OF THE WSW
TO 40-50KTS BRIEFLY BY 00Z THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WAA RISES 850MB TEMPS TO -5 TO -10C. IF CLOUD
COVER HOLDS OFF A COUPLE MORE HOURS...WILL NEED TO INCREASE TEMPS A
COUPLE MORE DEGREES OVER THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS FROM BIG BAY THROUGH
MUNISING AND GRAND MARAIS.
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... THE SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY EVENING...JUST ADVANCE OF THE SFC LOW SHIFTING
FROM JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z TO CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR BY 06Z
THURSDAY...AND JUST E OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. SOME
TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST WITH THE LOW AS IT MOVES
OVERHEAD. COLDER AIR WILL JUST BEGIN TO SLIDE IN ON THE NW FLOW BY
12Z THURSDAY /DOWN AROUND -10C CWA WIDE/. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND FAVORABLE N-NW FLOW NEAR THE SFC WILL HELP
KEEP LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE COOLEST
AIR /850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -15C LATE THURSDAY THROUGH MOST OF
THURSDAY NIGHT/ AND N-NW WINDS WILL GIVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LES E
OF A LINE FROM MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS AND WHITEFISH POINT. THE
500MB TROUGH OVERHEAD THURSDAY MORNING WILL PUSH E AND ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A BRIEF RIDGE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AT THE SFC.
YET ANOTHER LOW/CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE NEARING FROM S CENTRAL CANADA
FRIDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF SASKATCHEWAN AND S
MANITOBA AT 12Z FRIDAY WILL SLOWLY SINK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...REMAINING AS A TROUGH OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AS STRONGER LOW PRESSURE AND THE MAIN 500MB TROUGH NEARS
FROM CENTRAL CANADA. A SECONDARY LOW LOOKS TO SWING ACROSS UPPER
MI/LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY MORNING. AT LEAST THAT/S
THE CONSENSUS FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. THE 12Z ECMWF AT
12Z SUNDAY HAD THE SFC LOW OVER S HUDSON BAY/N ONTARIO AT 12Z
SUNDAY. EITHER WAY...LOOK FOR THE SYSTEM TO EXIT TO THE NE DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH A RIDGE AND COOLER AIR BUILDING IN FROM
CENTRAL CANADA ON MONDAY. EVEN SO...850MB TEMPS MONDAY LOOK TO ONLY
BE AROUND -10 TO -15C MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
EXPECT PREDOMINANT IFR CONDITIONS AT IWD/CMX TO IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS
AFTN WITH PASSAGE OF DISTURBANCE/DEEPER MSTR THAT ENHANCED THE SN
SHOWERS THIS MRNG. BEFORE THE PASSAGE OF THIS DISTURBANCE AT SAW...
VSBYS MAY DROP INTO THE IFR RANGE UNDER SOME LINGERING HEAVIER SHSN
AT TIMES THIS AFTN...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE THERE.
AS THE WINDS BACK TO THE W AND THEN THE SW LATE TNGT AND DRAW DRIER
AIR INTO THE UPR LKS...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE
OVERNGT...EARLIEST AT SAW AND LAST AT CMX...WHERE THE W WIND WL
UPSLOPE AND PROLONG THE LK CLDS/SHSN. GUSTY SW WINDS WL DVLP LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN DEPARTING HI PRES
RDG AND A LO PRES SLIDING INTO NW ONTARIO.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY AS A RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35
KNOTS POSSIBLE. NEXT PERIOD FOR STRONGER WINDS WILL BE WED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH SW GALES TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVER MOST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ALSO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS STAY NEAR 30 KNOTS
INTO THU AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION FROM CANADA...BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 30 KNOTS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A FEW GALE
FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING
WINDS LESS THAN 25 KNOTS FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ006.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ266-
267.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ TO 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/
WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ162-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
200 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
COOLER AIR ARRIVES TODAY THAT WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION.
MUCH OF THE SNOW HOWEVER WILL FALL NORTH OF I-96 AND NEAR THE LAKE
SHORE. THEN MOST AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. 131 WILL SEE A QUICK
BURST OF SNOW THIS EVENING...BEFORE LETTING UP OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER
WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
BRINGING LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.
IT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.
THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S EACH DAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1128 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
DECIDED TO GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN LOCATIONS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. INCOMING GUIDANCE SHOWS
DEEPER INVERSION HEIGHTS WITH THE WAVE PASSING THROUGH. DECENT
LIFT IS NOTED IN THE DGZ AS WELL. HRRR IS SHOWING STRONGER BANDING
AS WELL...SO IMPACTS APPEAR LIKELY IF YOU END UP UNDER ONE OF THE
BANDS. WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW WILL BE OVER FOR THE MORNING
COMMUTE...SLICK CONDITIONS COULD LINGER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
A WEAK LAKE ENHANCED EVENT WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH MOST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UNDER TWO INCHES. THEN A CLIPPER ARRIVES FOR WED
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE DGZ IS LARGELY UNSATURATED DURING THIS
PERIOD...SO PCPN SHOULD BE LIGHT...BUT COULD LARGELY BE FREEZING
DRIZZLE.
A SURFACE LOW WAS SLIDING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER EARLY THIS
MORNING. IT WAS DRAGGING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION AND ALL AREAS
WILL SEE THE LIGHT RAIN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY DAYBREAK.
THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THIS WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY...WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE PERSISTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA. SO EXPECT THE SNOW TO PERSIST ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 10 REGION
MUCH OF TODAY. HOWEVER THE AVAILABLE LIFT IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO
EXPECT ACCUMS TO ONLY BE 1-2 INCHES. A LOCALIZED 3 INCH REPORT IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH GROUND OF LAKE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...WITH H8
TEMPS ONLY INCHING DOWN TO AROUND -10C BY EVENING...THE LAKE EFFECT
INFLUENCE WILL REMAIN VERY MODEST TODAY. OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHWAY
REGION... EXPECT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMS TODAY.
THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL FLARE UP THIS EVENING AS COLDER AIR
CONTINUES TO POUR IN. HOWEVER THIS APPEARS LIKE A SHORT BURST AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
EXPECT AN INCH OR TWO OVER THE SW CORNER OF MI WITH A MEAN FLOW OF
300-310...OTHERWISE ACCUMS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
AFTER A QUIET WED...A CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR WED NIGHT AND THU.
THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS WELL NORTH...OVER THE SUPERIOR REGION. THEN
A COLD FRONT MOVES IN BY LATE THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THE DGZ MAY ONLY BRIEFLY BECOME SATURATED LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THU
WHEN SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY
BE THE PRIMARY PCPN TYPE AS THE MOISTURE REMAINS SHALLOW...AND BELOW
THE DGZ. WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY IT MAY PRODUCE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF LIFT...HELPING PRODUCE FREEZING DRIZZLE. WE WILL
WATCH HOW THIS PANS OUT...BUT WE MAY SEE IMPACTS FOR THE THURSDAY
EVENING COMMUTE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING WILL BE TAPERING OFF AND
ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL BLO 5 KFT AND THE
DGZ DRIES OUT AS SHORT LIVED SFC RIDGING MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY.
THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM LOW IS ALREADY APPROACHING ON FRIDAY WITH
SOME LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY AND SPREADING SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLUMN WARMS
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MOSTLY LIQUID PRECIP ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY AS A WEAK LOW EJECTS OUT FROM THE BASE OF A DEEPENING WESTERN
CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL BRING SOME RAIN OR A MIX ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND SNOW NORTH. THE PRIMARY LOW BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
BUT PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
THE FOCUS OF THE 18Z SET OF FCSTS IS LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY A HEAVIER PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN
SOME SPORADIC IFR AT KMKG WITH SHSN...BUT MVFR HAS BEEN THE
PREDOMINATE CONDITION.
WE EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BEGIN TO RAMP UP BY 00Z AT THE I-96
TERMINALS...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO COME AFTER 00Z
AS A STRONGER BAND SETS UP. THIS BAND WILL THEN DIMINISH TOWARD
08Z OR SO AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER WAVE MOVES BY. THE I-94 SITES
WILL SEE SNOW SHOWERS RAMP UP SOME...BUT WE DO NOT EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO BE AS BAD.
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HOLD ON THEN AFTER 08Z WITH A MVFR CIG
EXPECTED. SOME LOCAL IFR CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TOWARD THE
LAKESHORE...BUT THIS SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE
AFTER 08Z.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
WILL HOIST A SHORT-LIVED GALE WARNING FOR THIS MORNING SOUTH OF
HOLLAND. AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION...A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE BRIEFLY REALIZED EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS THREAT
DIMINISHES AS WE GET INTO MID MORNING. WE MAY NEED SEE ANOTHER
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
THE FLOOD THREAT REMAINS MINIMAL. RIVERS HAVE SEEN QUITE A BIT OF
IMPROVEMENT IN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH HAS BEEN FAIRLY
RAPID IN A FEW LOCATIONS. ICE IS STILL PRESENT IN MANY PLACES AS
THE RECENT MILDER CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SHORT-LIVED.
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS RATHER TAME IN
RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH FRIDAY. WARMTH WILL SURGE NORTHWARD FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH 40S POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THROUGHOUT THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF LOWER MICHIGAN. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COME IN
SMALL PIECES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE BACK END OF THE LONG
TERM...AROUND FEB. 2ND...BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIGGER ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE NAILED
DOWN THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A DECENTLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ037-038-
043-044-050-056-057-064-065-071-072.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1258 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
COOLER AIR ARRIVES TODAY THAT WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION.
MUCH OF THE SNOW HOWEVER WILL FALL NORTH OF I-96 AND NEAR THE LAKE
SHORE. THEN MOST AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. 131 WILL SEE A QUICK
BURST OF SNOW THIS EVENING...BEFORE LETTING UP OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER
WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
BRINGING LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.
IT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.
THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S EACH DAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1128 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
DECIDED TO GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN LOCATIONS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. INCOMING GUIDANCE SHOWS
DEEPER INVERSION HEIGHTS WITH THE WAVE PASSING THROUGH. DECENT
LIFT IS NOTED IN THE DGZ AS WELL. HRRR IS SHOWING STRONGER BANDING
AS WELL...SO IMPACTS APPEAR LIKELY IF YOU END UP UNDER ONE OF THE
BANDS. WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW WILL BE OVER FOR THE MORNING
COMMUTE...SLICK CONDITIONS COULD LINGER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
A WEAK LAKE ENHANCED EVENT WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH MOST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UNDER TWO INCHES. THEN A CLIPPER ARRIVES FOR WED
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE DGZ IS LARGELY UNSATURATED DURING THIS
PERIOD...SO PCPN SHOULD BE LIGHT...BUT COULD LARGELY BE FREEZING
DRIZZLE.
A SURFACE LOW WAS SLIDING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER EARLY THIS
MORNING. IT WAS DRAGGING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION AND ALL AREAS
WILL SEE THE LIGHT RAIN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY DAYBREAK.
THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THIS WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY...WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE PERSISTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA. SO EXPECT THE SNOW TO PERSIST ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 10 REGION
MUCH OF TODAY. HOWEVER THE AVAILABLE LIFT IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO
EXPECT ACCUMS TO ONLY BE 1-2 INCHES. A LOCALIZED 3 INCH REPORT IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH GROUND OF LAKE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...WITH H8
TEMPS ONLY INCHING DOWN TO AROUND -10C BY EVENING...THE LAKE EFFECT
INFLUENCE WILL REMAIN VERY MODEST TODAY. OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHWAY
REGION... EXPECT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMS TODAY.
THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL FLARE UP THIS EVENING AS COLDER AIR
CONTINUES TO POUR IN. HOWEVER THIS APPEARS LIKE A SHORT BURST AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
EXPECT AN INCH OR TWO OVER THE SW CORNER OF MI WITH A MEAN FLOW OF
300-310...OTHERWISE ACCUMS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
AFTER A QUIET WED...A CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR WED NIGHT AND THU.
THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS WELL NORTH...OVER THE SUPERIOR REGION. THEN
A COLD FRONT MOVES IN BY LATE THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THE DGZ MAY ONLY BRIEFLY BECOME SATURATED LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THU
WHEN SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY
BE THE PRIMARY PCPN TYPE AS THE MOISTURE REMAINS SHALLOW...AND BELOW
THE DGZ. WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY IT MAY PRODUCE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF LIFT...HELPING PRODUCE FREEZING DRIZZLE. WE WILL
WATCH HOW THIS PANS OUT...BUT WE MAY SEE IMPACTS FOR THE THURSDAY
EVENING COMMUTE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING WILL BE TAPERING OFF AND
ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL BLO 5 KFT AND THE
DGZ DRIES OUT AS SHORT LIVED SFC RIDGING MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY.
THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM LOW IS ALREADY APPROACHING ON FRIDAY WITH
SOME LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY AND SPREADING SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLUMN WARMS
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MOSTLY LIQUID PRECIP ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY AS A WEAK LOW EJECTS OUT FROM THE BASE OF A DEEPENING WESTERN
CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL BRING SOME RAIN OR A MIX ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND SNOW NORTH. THE PRIMARY LOW BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
BUT PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
THE FOCUS OF THE 18Z SET OF FCSTS IS LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY A HEAVIER PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN
SOME SPORADIC IFR AT KMKG WITH SHSN...BUT MVFR HAS BEEN THE
PREDOMINATE CONDITION.
WE EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BEGIN TO RAMP UP BY 00Z AT THE I-96
TERMINALS...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO COME AFTER 00Z
AS A STRONGER BAND SETS UP. THIS BAND WILL THEN DIMINISH TOWARD
08Z OR SO AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER WAVE MOVES BY. THE I-94 SITES
WILL SEE SNOW SHOWERS RAMP UP SOME...BUT WE DO NOT EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO BE AS BAD.
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HOLD ON THEN AFTER 08Z WITH A MVFR CIG
EXPECTED. SOME LOCAL IFR CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TOWARD THE
LAKESHORE...BUT THIS SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE
AFTER 08Z.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
WILL HOIST A SHORT-LIVED GALE WARNING FOR THIS MORNING SOUTH OF
HOLLAND. AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION...A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE BRIEFLY REALIZED EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS THREAT
DIMINISHES AS WE GET INTO MID MORNING. WE MAY NEED SEE ANOTHER
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1152 AM EST MON JAN 25 2016
IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS THIS AFTERNOON. RECENT
TROUBLE SPOTS...SUCH AS THE GRAND RIVER AT IONIA AND PERE MARQUETTE
AT SCOTTVILLE...ARE SHOWING STEADY DECLINES.
THE ICE HAS BEEN STABLE AT OTHER LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT SW LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING...BEGINNING MOSTLY AS RAIN. COOLER AIR WILL ALLOW RAIN
TO CHANGE TO SNOW BY TUESDAY MORNING. GENERAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3
INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED. THE ONSET OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD BE
LIGHT...LEADING TO THE NOTION THAT WHAT DOES FALL AS RAIN WILL
MOSTLY BE TRAPPED IN THE SNOWPACK. SNOW THAT FOLLOWS WITHIN THE
COLDER AIR SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT EITHER.
FLOOD CONCERNS CONTINUE TO REMAIN MINIMAL WITH PRIMARY FOCUS
REMAINING ON ANY POSSIBILITY FOR ICE MOVEMENT.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-044-050-056-057-064-065-071-
072.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1131 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
COOLER AIR ARRIVES TODAY THAT WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION.
MUCH OF THE SNOW HOWEVER WILL FALL NORTH OF I-96 AND NEAR THE LAKE
SHORE. THEN MOST AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. 131 WILL SEE A QUICK
BURST OF SNOW THIS EVENING...BEFORE LETTING UP OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER
WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
BRINGING LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.
IT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.
THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S EACH DAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1128 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
DECIDED TO GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN LOCATIONS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. INCOMING GUIDANCE SHOWS
DEEPER INVERSION HEIGHTS WITH THE WAVE PASSING THROUGH. DECENT
LIFT IS NOTED IN THE DGZ AS WELL. HRRR IS SHOWING STRONGER BANDING
AS WELL...SO IMPACTS APPEAR LIKELY IF YOU END UP UNDER ONE OF THE
BANDS. WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW WILL BE OVER FOR THE MORNING
COMMUTE...SLICK CONDITIONS COULD LINGER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
A WEAK LAKE ENHANCED EVENT WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH MOST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UNDER TWO INCHES. THEN A CLIPPER ARRIVES FOR WED
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE DGZ IS LARGELY UNSATURATED DURING THIS
PERIOD...SO PCPN SHOULD BE LIGHT...BUT COULD LARGELY BE FREEZING
DRIZZLE.
A SURFACE LOW WAS SLIDING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER EARLY THIS
MORNING. IT WAS DRAGGING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION AND ALL AREAS
WILL SEE THE LIGHT RAIN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY DAYBREAK.
THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THIS WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY...WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE PERSISTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA. SO EXPECT THE SNOW TO PERSIST ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 10 REGION
MUCH OF TODAY. HOWEVER THE AVAILABLE LIFT IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO
EXPECT ACCUMS TO ONLY BE 1-2 INCHES. A LOCALIZED 3 INCH REPORT IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH GROUND OF LAKE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...WITH H8
TEMPS ONLY INCHING DOWN TO AROUND -10C BY EVENING...THE LAKE EFFECT
INFLUENCE WILL REMAIN VERY MODEST TODAY. OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHWAY
REGION... EXPECT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMS TODAY.
THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL FLARE UP THIS EVENING AS COLDER AIR
CONTINUES TO POUR IN. HOWEVER THIS APPEARS LIKE A SHORT BURST AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
EXPECT AN INCH OR TWO OVER THE SW CORNER OF MI WITH A MEAN FLOW OF
300-310...OTHERWISE ACCUMS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
AFTER A QUIET WED...A CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR WED NIGHT AND THU.
THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS WELL NORTH...OVER THE SUPERIOR REGION. THEN
A COLD FRONT MOVES IN BY LATE THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THE DGZ MAY ONLY BRIEFLY BECOME SATURATED LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THU
WHEN SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY
BE THE PRIMARY PCPN TYPE AS THE MOISTURE REMAINS SHALLOW...AND BELOW
THE DGZ. WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY IT MAY PRODUCE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF LIFT...HELPING PRODUCE FREEZING DRIZZLE. WE WILL
WATCH HOW THIS PANS OUT...BUT WE MAY SEE IMPACTS FOR THE THURSDAY
EVENING COMMUTE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING WILL BE TAPERING OFF AND
ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL BLO 5 KFT AND THE
DGZ DRIES OUT AS SHORT LIVED SFC RIDGING MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY.
THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM LOW IS ALREADY APPROACHING ON FRIDAY WITH
SOME LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY AND SPREADING SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLUMN WARMS
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MOSTLY LIQUID PRECIP ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY AS A WEAK LOW EJECTS OUT FROM THE BASE OF A DEEPENING WESTERN
CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL BRING SOME RAIN OR A MIX ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND SNOW NORTH. THE PRIMARY LOW BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
BUT PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
SNOW SHOWERS AND CEILINGS AROUND 1500 FEET AGL ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR AT TIMES IN THE HEAVIER
SNOW BANDS. WINDS WILL BE WEST AROUND 15 KNOTS TODAY WITH GUSTS
OVER 25 KNOTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
WILL HOIST A SHORT-LIVED GALE WARNING FOR THIS MORNING SOUTH OF
HOLLAND. AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION...A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE BRIEFLY REALIZED EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS THREAT
DIMINISHES AS WE GET INTO MID MORNING. WE MAY NEED SEE ANOTHER
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1152 AM EST MON JAN 25 2016
IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS THIS AFTERNOON. RECENT
TROUBLE SPOTS...SUCH AS THE GRAND RIVER AT IONIA AND PERE MARQUETTE
AT SCOTTVILLE...ARE SHOWING STEADY DECLINES.
THE ICE HAS BEEN STABLE AT OTHER LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT SW LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING...BEGINNING MOSTLY AS RAIN. COOLER AIR WILL ALLOW RAIN
TO CHANGE TO SNOW BY TUESDAY MORNING. GENERAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3
INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED. THE ONSET OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD BE
LIGHT...LEADING TO THE NOTION THAT WHAT DOES FALL AS RAIN WILL
MOSTLY BE TRAPPED IN THE SNOWPACK. SNOW THAT FOLLOWS WITHIN THE
COLDER AIR SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT EITHER.
FLOOD CONCERNS CONTINUE TO REMAIN MINIMAL WITH PRIMARY FOCUS
REMAINING ON ANY POSSIBILITY FOR ICE MOVEMENT.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-044-050-056-057-064-065-071-
072.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1155 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR TROFFING OVER
CENTRAL NAMERICA BTWN RIDGES ALONG THE W COAST AND OVER THE E. THERE
ARE TWO SHRTWVS OF INTEREST EMBEDDED IN THE SEPARATE NRN AND SRN
BRANCHES MAKING UP THIS TROF. AN AXIS OF SOME DEEPER MSTR AHEAD OF
THE NRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE DID BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SN TO THE
W...BUT INFLUX OF MID LVL DRY AIR ARND H7 AS SHOWN ON THE 12Z MPX
AND GRB RAOBS IS RESTRICTING THE LINGERING PCPN TO OVER WRN LK SUP.
MOIST LLVLS BLO THIS MID LVL DRY AIR AS DEPICTED ON THE 12Z GRB AND
APX RAOBS HAS RESULTED IN SOME FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DZ MAINLY
OVER THE CENTRAL CWA...AS DGZ IS WELL ABOVE THE SHALLOW MSTR WHERE
ICE CRYSTALS ARE ABSENT. LOOKING TO THE SW...A STRONGER NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHRTWV THAT CAUSED 12HR H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 100M IS MOVING
NEWD THRU MISSOURI TOWARD THE UPR MIDWEST.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON LINGERING FREEZING DZ
AND THEN ON ARRIVAL OF HIER POPS TNGT/NEED FOR ADDITIONAL HEADLINES
AS SRN BRANCH SHRTWV LIFTS INTO THE WRN LKS.
TNGT...SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD IS FCST TO REACH SCENTRAL LK MI ARND 06Z
TUE BEFORE MOVING TOWARD SE ONTARIO BY 12Z...WITHOUT PHASING WITH
THE NRN BRANCH SHRTWV FCST TO DIG INTO THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY. WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MSTR...EXPECT LINGERING FREEZING DZ TO
TRANSITION TO MAINLY SN DURING THE EVNG. BAND OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC/UPR DVGC/FAIRLY SLOPED BAND OF FGEN ON THE CYC SIDE OF THE
SHRTWV TRACK IS FCST TO IMPACT MAINLY THE SE HALF OF THE CWA. PERIOD
OF SHARPER DYNAMIC FORCING IS FCST TO LAST ABOUT 6 HRS. CONSIDERING
3G/KG SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FCST IN THE H7-75 LYR OVER THE FAR
SCENTRAL...SUSPECT SN ACCUMS WL REACH 3-4 INCHES OVER THE FAR SE CWA
WITH POOR SN/WATER RATIOS ASSOCIATED WITH HI/RATHER NARROW DGZ.
ALTHOUGH THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE IS
PROGGED TO MISS THE WRN ZNS...THE ARPCH OF THE NRN BRANCH SHRTWV/
ACCOMPANYING DYNAMIC FORCING LATE IN TANDEM WITH SHARPENING CYC NW
FLOW/DEEPENING MSTR AND H85 TEMPS FALLING TO ARND -11C...EXPECT
INCRSG POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE IN THAT AREA OVERNGT. AS FOR
HEADLINES...OPTED TO HOLD ON TO THE ADVY ISSUED BY THE NGT SHIFT FOR
MENOMINEE COUNTY...WHERE UP TO 4 INCHES STILL APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE
SRN HALF OF THE COUNTY PER EXPECTED DYNAMICS/MSTR AS DISCUSSED
ABOVE. TRANSIENT NATURE OF FORCING/GREATER MSTR REMAINING TO THE S
AND LACK OF PHASING BTWN SHRTWVS DOES NOT JUSTIFY EXTENDING
HEADLINES TO THE REST OF THE CWA. OPTED TO ISSUE AN SPS TO DISCUSS
THE FREEZING DRIZZLE/TRANSITION TO SN THIS EVNG WITH UP TO 3 INCHES
OVER MOST OF THE CWA DURING THE NGT.
TUE...NRN BRANCH SHRTWV IS FCST TO SLIDE INTO LOWER MI LATE IN THE
DAY. A PERIOD OF LK ENHANCED SN UNDER ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC/HIER RH AS WELL AS UPSLOPE/CYC NNW FLOW WL BE THE RULE NEAR LK
SUP AS H85 TEMPS FALL TOWARD -15C. BUT OVER THE SCENTRAL/SE CWA...
PRESENCE OF DOWNSLOPE NW WIND COMPONENT WL TEND TO OFFSET THIS
DYANMIC SUPPORT...RESULTING IN NO HIER THAN CHC POPS. FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHRTWV TO THE E IN THE AFTN...EXPECT THE COVERAGE/
INTENSITY OF THE SN SHOWERS TO DIMINISH EVEN NEAR THE LK OVER THE W
HALF WITH ARRIVAL OF MID LVL DRYING THAT WL BRING A TRANSITION TO
PURE LES. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS ON TUE WL BE UP TO ABOUT 3 INCHES.
INCLUDED MENTION OF THIS SUB ADVY LES IN THE SPS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF SNOW
WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
BROUGHT THE SYSTEM SNOW OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS WILL BE POSITIONED
OVER NORTHEASTERN QUEBEC WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTH AND WESTWARD
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. ALOFT...THE UPPER LEVEL
500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE U.P. NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE EVENING...LINGERING LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO BE AROUND -16C
WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. INVERSION
HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 6KFT OVER THE AREA AS THE AXIS
SLIDES THROUGH WHICH WILL KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
FALLING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT...WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST ALLOWING THE LAKE EFFECT
POTENTIAL TO SHIFT TO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND FAR EASTERN U.P.
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD AS A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY. ALOFT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AND SLIGHT RIDGING WILL SLIDE INTO THE U.P. DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE 850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -
6C...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND EVEN DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY BRING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED 500MB SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN MN WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE U.P. TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS/EC KEEP THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE CWA
MAINLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WHILE THE GEM/NAM HAVE THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION A BIT FARTHER SOUTH SLIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.P. EITHER WAY THE SYSTEM SNOW SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUICK AND
GENERALLY LIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF PROGGED TO BE AROUND 0.15
INCHES. SNOWFALL RATIOS SHOULD NOT BE THAT IMPRESSIVE EITHER AS THE
MOIST LAYER IN THE DGZ IS ELEVATED BETWEEN ABOUT 650MB AND 550MB
WITH FAIRLY GUSTY WINDS BELOW THAT LAYER...EFFECTIVELY HELPING TO
SHRED THE LARGER DENDRITES. THIS WOULD GIVE SNOW RATIOS AROUND 12 TO
15 ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...KEEPING THE SYSTEM SNOW TOTALS BETWEEN
1 TO 3 INCHES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION...SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE SQUEEZING EFFECT BETWEEN THE
KEWEENAW...ISLE ROYALE AND THE ARROWHEAD OF MN WILL INCREASE THE
GALE POTENTIAL IN THOSE AREAS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW
ALONG THE SHORELINES AS WELL. THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER HEAD AND 850MB TEMPERATURES
FALL TO NEAR -10 TO -11C...MAINLY FOR NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. THIS COULD GIVE THOSE AREAS AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. THE LOW AND TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A BIT DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN AND THE
INVERSION HEIGHT WILL BECOME VERY SHALLOW.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BECOME VERY LIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED...
INTERMITTENT CHANCE OF SNOW WILL DOMINATE THIS TIME PERIOD. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES IN A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
ON FRIDAY AND THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY LOW AT
THIS POINT...SO WILL STICK WITH A CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS TO AT
LEAST SHOW THE INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF SNOW FOR THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
WITH LOW PRES MOVING NE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...
-SN AND PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
OCNL LIFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO OCCUR AT KSAW/KIWD. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTN AT ALL TERMINALS AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN LINGER INTO THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY NORTH WINDS
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS
WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS LESS THAN 25 KNOTS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY A
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FROM
CANADA...BRINGING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE SHIFTING NORTH TO 30 KNOTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING
WINDS LESS THAN 25 KNOTS FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MIZ012.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
926 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
RAIN FALLING FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES EASTWARD TO MUCH OF NW WI.
THE EXCEPTION BEING RIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
NEAR CORNUCOPIA WHERE SNOW WAS REPORTED BY AN OBSERVER. LIGHT SNOW
FALLING NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 2 IN NE MN WHERE TEMPS SUPPORT THE
SNOW. CAA BEGINNING IN THE 925MB LAYER IN NW WI TO THE TWIN PORTS.
WILL SEE THE RAIN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT. AS THE
VERTICALLY STACKED SFC/UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD...THE PCPN WILL
GRADUALLY END OVERNIGHT. UPDATED TO SHOW THIS TREND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE
CENTER POSITIONED ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...TRACKING INTO
THE MN ARROWHEAD. SPOTTERS ACROSS THE IN IRON RANGE HAVE REPORTED
ABOUT AN HOUR OF A WINTRY OF SNOW/FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET THIS
AFTERNOON...FOUND JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW. HAVE INTRODUCED
FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE ARROWHEAD ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
FURTHER SOUTH...LATEST SPC RUC 925MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG PUSH
OF WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE WEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON TO RAPIDLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 30 TO AROUND 40 ACROSS
THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION. THE WARM SLOT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH OUR DAYTIMES
HIGHS LIKELY TO BE MET AFTER SUNSET AS TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BEGIN
TO FALL UNTIL THE LOW MAKES IT WAY FAR ENOUGH EAST THE COLD AIR
CAN DROP INTO THE REGION.
CONTINUE TO CARRY SMALL POPS/FLURRIES ON THURSDAY AS THE CYCLONIC
FLOW COMBINED WITH 500MB TEMPS APPROACHING -30C LINGER OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
THURSDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHLAND
THURSDAY EVENING. THE VERY LIGHT WINDS AND PARTIAL CLEAR SKIES COULD
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES DROP WELL DURING THE EVENING...DESPITE
WARMING TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE NIGHT WHEN SSE WINDS DEVELOP AND
HIGH CLOUD COVER MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. LOWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO NEAR THE GUNFLINT TRAIL...TO
AROUND 20 DEGREES NEAR THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...BRINGING WARMER AIR INTO
THE REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING 850 HPA TEMPERATURES OF UP TO
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SW FORECAST AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO THE LOWER 30S. IT COULD BE
HIGHER...IF IT WERE NOT FOR THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND THEN PCPN
THAT WILL COME FROM A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING ESE ACROSS
CENTRAL MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE RELATED PCPN...EXCEPT THE ECMWF IS A BIT
WETTER...FASTER...AND MORE SOUTH THAN THE GFS/CANADIAN/NAM. WHILE
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FORECAST AREA SHOULD PRIMARILY GET
SNOW...THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MIXED PCPN ACROSS THE SW AND
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...POSSIBLY SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. THIS
THREAT WILL NEED TO BE EXAMINED MORE CLOSELY OVER COMING SHIFTS.
SNOW COULD LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SHORTWAVE MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FORECAST
AREA WILL LIKELY GET A TOTAL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD. THE GUNFLINT TRAIN...NE BOUNDARY
WATERS...AND FAR NORTH SHORE COULD GET AROUND 4 TO 5 INCHES.
SATURDAY...MORE ZONAL FLOW AND SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING
SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE AND
DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR
SE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COLDER SUNDAY BECAUSE
OF THE COLDER AIR THAT WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE
NORTHLAND WILL BE AFFECTED BY A STORM SYSTEM DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...PRIMARILY THE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THE
THE GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF ARE CONTINUING TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL FORM A STACKED LOW NEAR THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE ON MONDAY...AND LIFT THROUGH THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF TAKE THE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS
AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT...SPREADING CONSIDERING PCPN
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FORECAST AREA. IT APPEARS PLENTY COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOWFALL DUE TO THE WRAP AROUND COLD AIR COMING DOWN FROM
CANADA. OUR OFFICE WILL NEED TO INCREASE OUR ATTENTION ON THIS
POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AT THE OUTSET OF THE FORECAST. A MIXED BAG OF PCPN TYPES
WAS OCCURRING WITH SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE. WARM AIR IS
SURGING ACROSS THE TERMINALS RESULTING IN A WIDE RANGE OF CIGS
INCLUDING IFR/MVFR/VFR. THIS WILL CONTINUE AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST
OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE PCPN WILL CHANGE BACK TO ALL
SNOW TONIGHT WHILE THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE AT HYR WHERE LLWS IS IN THE FORECAST. EXPECT THE LLWS TO
END BY 12Z WHEN MIXING BEGINS AGAIN. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
FORECAST AT ALL SITES BY AFTERNOON...WITH HYR REMAINING MVFR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 26 27 12 30 / 80 10 0 60
INL 22 22 10 33 / 80 40 30 80
BRD 28 29 19 34 / 20 10 10 40
HYR 27 27 13 32 / 50 30 0 40
ASX 27 27 12 31 / 80 60 10 50
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
535 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE
CENTER POSITIONED ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...TRACKING INTO
THE MN ARROWHEAD. SPOTTERS ACROSS THE IN IRON RANGE HAVE REPORTED
ABOUT AN HOUR OF A WINTRY OF SNOW/FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET THIS
AFTERNOON...FOUND JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW. HAVE INTRODUCED
FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE ARROWHEAD ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
FURTHER SOUTH...LATEST SPC RUC 925MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG PUSH
OF WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE WEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON TO RAPIDLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 30 TO AROUND 40 ACROSS
THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION. THE WARM SLOT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH OUR DAYTIMES
HIGHS LIKELY TO BE MET AFTER SUNSET AS TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BEGIN
TO FALL UNTIL THE LOW MAKES IT WAY FAR ENOUGH EAST THE COLD AIR
CAN DROP INTO THE REGION.
CONTINUE TO CARRY SMALL POPS/FLURRIES ON THURSDAY AS THE CYCLONIC
FLOW COMBINED WITH 500MB TEMPS APPROACHING -30C LINGER OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
THURSDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHLAND
THURSDAY EVENING. THE VERY LIGHT WINDS AND PARTIAL CLEAR SKIES COULD
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES DROP WELL DURING THE EVENING...DESPITE
WARMING TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE NIGHT WHEN SSE WINDS DEVELOP AND
HIGH CLOUD COVER MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. LOWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO NEAR THE GUNFLINT TRAIL...TO
AROUND 20 DEGREES NEAR THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...BRINGING WARMER AIR INTO
THE REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING 850 HPA TEMPERATURES OF UP TO
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SW FORECAST AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO THE LOWER 30S. IT COULD BE
HIGHER...IF IT WERE NOT FOR THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND THEN PCPN
THAT WILL COME FROM A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING ESE ACROSS
CENTRAL MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE RELATED PCPN...EXCEPT THE ECMWF IS A BIT
WETTER...FASTER...AND MORE SOUTH THAN THE GFS/CANADIAN/NAM. WHILE
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FORECAST AREA SHOULD PRIMARILY GET
SNOW...THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MIXED PCPN ACROSS THE SW AND
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...POSSIBLY SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. THIS
THREAT WILL NEED TO BE EXAMINED MORE CLOSELY OVER COMING SHIFTS.
SNOW COULD LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SHORTWAVE MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FORECAST
AREA WILL LIKELY GET A TOTAL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD. THE GUNFLINT TRAIN...NE BOUNDARY
WATERS...AND FAR NORTH SHORE COULD GET AROUND 4 TO 5 INCHES.
SATURDAY...MORE ZONAL FLOW AND SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING
SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE AND
DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR
SE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COLDER SUNDAY BECAUSE
OF THE COLDER AIR THAT WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE
NORTHLAND WILL BE AFFECTED BY A STORM SYSTEM DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...PRIMARILY THE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THE
THE GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF ARE CONTINUING TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL FORM A STACKED LOW NEAR THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE ON MONDAY...AND LIFT THROUGH THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF TAKE THE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS
AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT...SPREADING CONSIDERING PCPN
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FORECAST AREA. IT APPEARS PLENTY COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOWFALL DUE TO THE WRAP AROUND COLD AIR COMING DOWN FROM
CANADA. OUR OFFICE WILL NEED TO INCREASE OUR ATTENTION ON THIS
POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AT THE OUTSET OF THE FORECAST. A MIXED BAG OF PCPN TYPES
WAS OCCURRING WITH SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE. WARM AIR IS
SURGING ACROSS THE TERMINALS RESULTING IN A WIDE RANGE OF CIGS
INCLUDING IFR/MVFR/VFR. THIS WILL CONTINUE AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST
OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE PCPN WILL CHANGE BACK TO ALL
SNOW TONIGHT WHILE THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE AT HYR WHERE LLWS IS IN THE FORECAST. EXPECT THE LLWS TO
END BY 12Z WHEN MIXING BEGINS AGAIN. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
FORECAST AT ALL SITES BY AFTERNOON...WITH HYR REMAINING MVFR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 26 27 12 30 / 40 10 0 60
INL 22 22 10 33 / 50 40 30 80
BRD 28 29 19 34 / 20 10 10 40
HYR 27 27 13 32 / 40 30 0 40
ASX 27 27 12 31 / 60 60 10 50
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
347 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE NORTHLAND TOMORROW...WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST 12Z MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...OTHER THAN MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES...AND GENERALLY INCREASED PCPN AMOUNTS. INCREASED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH...AROUND 3 INCHES. HELD OFF ON A WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINE...BUT THE EVENING OR NIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO ISSUE ONE IF
THE SNOWFALL FORECAST TRENDS A BIT GREATER.
AT 330 PM...THE NORTHLAND HAD WNW TO NW FLOW AND BKN/OVC STRATUS.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 20S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST...WITH A POTENT
SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WAS OVER NW ONTARIO...SE MANITOBA...AND THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS.
THERE WILL BE LINGERING OVERCAST STRATUS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERING LATER TONIGHT WHEN
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL ALSO
BE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN IRON COUNTY...WHERE AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
HIGHER CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT...AND ITS POSSIBLE
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP PROP UP THE TEMPERATURES...AS
WELL AS THE SW FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A LITTLE ABOVE 10 DEGREES.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DIG ACROSS CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
AND MANITOBA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND NW ONTARIO DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS CLIPPER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT
SHORTWAVE WITH THE PASSING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BRING A QUICK BURST OF SNOW...BEGINNING IN THE NW DURING
THE MIDDLE MORNING...AND SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. THE SNOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTIER
WINDS...ABOUT 10 TO 20 MPH...SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF
VISIBILITY APPROACHING A HALF MILE OR LESS WHEN THE SNOW IS AT ITS
MOST INTENSE. WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
FORECAST...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...SUCH
AS OVER THE BOUNDARY WATERS. HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT THERE COULD
BE BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE WAKE OF
THE MAIN BAND OF SNOW...WHEN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS DRY AND THERE
REMAINS A RELATIVELY WARM LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER. THE NAM12
SOUNDINGS HAVE A SHORT PERIOD WHERE THE SATURATED LAYER COULD BE
DEEP ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT ENOUGH OF MOISTURE FOR DRIZZLE...BUT
THE GFS SOUNDINGS ARE NOT NEARLY AS DEEP. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN
ITS OCCURRENCE...SO LEFT FREEZING DRIZZLE OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE
NIGHT SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO LOOK MORE INTO DETAIL INTO THIS THREAT
WHEN THE HRRR AND RAP13 ARE WITHIN RANGE OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW
30S.
MORE SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MAINTAINING LOW CHANCES OF LINGERING SNOW AND FLURRIES.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER WILL NOT PASS THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY...SO OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND 5 TO 15 MPH WIND SPEEDS. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
DEPARTING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY MORNING. COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW SHOULD
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LES IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. RELATIVELY HIGH
WIND SPEEDS IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER SUGGESTS THE SNOW SHOWERS
WOULD PENETRATE WELL INLAND. AS A RESULT HAVE HELD ONTO HIGHER
POPS SOUTHEAST INTO SAWYER AND PRICE COUNTIES THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL DEPART FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH THE
EXITING LOW...SO THINK AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW ANOTHER INCH OR TWO AT
THE MOST.
THE NEXT QUICK HITTING SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THERE ARE PRETTY DISTINCT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC MEMBERS AND HAVE KEPT POPS
UNCHANGED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOISTURE SEEMS LIMITED AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...MAINLY WHATEVER BITS OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN IT CAN CARRY
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THINK SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH THE LARGER TOTALS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND OVER
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE ARROWHEAD.
BEHIND CLIPPER NUMBER TWO...GUIDANCE SEEMS SPLIT BETWEEN THE
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION OF A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND...AND THE GFS WHICH BRINGS ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EVEN WITH THE MORE ZONAL
BLEND...THINK THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIFT LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA TO SUPPORT LOW CHANCE POPS/CLOUDS.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS SEEM TO TREND TOWARD A
SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH THE HANDLING OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM TROF. QUASI-ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS/CONTINUES OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE TROF BEGINS TO DIG
INTO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND -SHSN ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR AS DRIER AIR
ALOFT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS RETURNING TO MVFR. AS UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES
INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT...LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF LLWS OR GUSTY WINDS. HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD LLWS FOR NOW SINCE MIXING SEEMS LIMITED. ANOTHER
ROUND OF -SN AND ASSOCIATED VSBY REDUCTIONS IS ANTICIPATED
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AFFECTING INL FIRST...AND SPREADING EAST-
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR CIGS WITH THE LIGHT
SNOW AND LATER UPDATES MAY NEED TO PUSH VSBYS INTO IFR CAT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 12 30 26 27 / 0 90 30 10
INL 12 31 23 26 / 0 90 50 10
BRD 12 33 28 30 / 0 60 10 10
HYR 11 31 28 31 / 0 80 40 20
ASX 14 32 27 30 / 10 80 40 50
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...HUYCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1138 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
Post frontal stratus overspreads the area this morning with
temperatures below freezing. This stratus deck is only a few hundred
meters thick according to RAP forecast soundings, with dry air
within the dendritic growth layer, so snow flurries are unlikely
with any of this stratus through the day. There was some hope
earlier that perhaps these clouds would mix out today, given that
forecast soundings indicated a T/Td spread within the cloud bearing
level, but latest RAP soundings for today continue to indicate
saturation through the day, and thus no breaks in the cloud cover.
Considering how thin the saturated layer is, it wouldn`t be
inconceivable to see a few temporary breaks in the clouds through
the day. At any rate, the good news is that the surface ridge
responsible for this latest push of cold air will push to the east,
with the southerly wind bearing back side of the ridge moving in for
Wednesday. The switch in winds will allow for a gradual warm up for
the rest of the week, starting with 30s and 40s for Wednesday, then
warming into the 50s by Friday. H85 temperatures for Friday could
push the double digits (C), so with any half decent mixing in the
lower levels temperatures could conceivably shoot through the 50s
and land in the 60s, mainly along and south of Interstate 70. Even
north of I-70 there could be temperatures in the 50s. Given the
zonal mid level flow with little signs of any support for ascent
expect the remainder of the week to be dry. The weekend should see
temperatures remain well above seasonal averages, with dry weather
through at least Saturday. By Sunday hints of a pattern change
appears to be in the works.
By Sunday, both EC and GFS are indicating a deep western trough
carving its way into the otherwise zonal flow aloft. Ahead of this
trough a surface low will glide through the area, generally without
event, although north of the low there could be some very light
precipitation late Sunday into Monday. However, the bigger event
next week would be in the Monday-Tuesday time frame as the
previously mentioned trough ejects eastward. This trough has the
potential to cause some high impact winter weather across portions
of the Great Plains and MO/MS River Valleys early/middle next week.
While the models have been generally inconsistent in resolving this
trough, there seems to be a better signal or momentum within the GFS
and EC to take the system on what seems to be the more preferred
track for winter storms this season, which is through northern
Kansas and eastern Nebraska. This track would generally leave most
of NE Kansas and NW Missouri out of its cross hairs. However, the
12z EC reminded us that the track will still likely take a few
twists and turns before being more finely resolved, likely sometime
this weekend. While the 12z EC indicated a track that would bring a
significant winter storm to this area, the 00z GFS/EC have generally
indicated the track of the system closer to what the previous runs
prior to the 12z EC indicated, which is more of a northern track. At
any rate, much about this potential system next week is up in the
air, and uncertainty with respect to any potential impacts is very
high.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1138 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
Main focus for this TAF issuance will be the west-to-east erosion of
stratus occurring across far eastern KS this afternoon. Expect that
the eastward progression will slow as it approaches the state line,
but could see pockets of sunshine within the next few hours, and an
improvement to scattered VFR cigs by mid- to late-aftn especially at
KIXD. Eventually, all sites will clear out by 03z, leaving VFR
conditions for the remainder of the period. Northwest winds will
gradually lessen this afternoon, becoming light westerly overnight
and increasing once again out of the south southwest by late
Wednesday morning.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Laflin
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
526 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
Post frontal stratus overspreads the area this morning with
temperatures below freezing. This stratus deck is only a few hundred
meters thick according to RAP forecast soundings, with dry air
within the dendritic growth layer, so snow flurries are unlikely
with any of this stratus through the day. There was some hope
earlier that perhaps these clouds would mix out today, given that
forecast soundings indicated a T/Td spread within the cloud bearing
level, but latest RAP soundings for today continue to indicate
saturation through the day, and thus no breaks in the cloud cover.
Considering how thin the saturated layer is, it wouldn`t be
inconceivable to see a few temporary breaks in the clouds through
the day. At any rate, the good news is that the surface ridge
responsible for this latest push of cold air will push to the east,
with the southerly wind bearing back side of the ridge moving in for
Wednesday. The switch in winds will allow for a gradual warm up for
the rest of the week, starting with 30s and 40s for Wednesday, then
warming into the 50s by Friday. H85 temperatures for Friday could
push the double digits (C), so with any half decent mixing in the
lower levels temperatures could conceivably shoot through the 50s
and land in the 60s, mainly along and south of Interstate 70. Even
north of I-70 there could be temperatures in the 50s. Given the
zonal mid level flow with little signs of any support for ascent
expect the remainder of the week to be dry. The weekend should see
temperatures remain well above seasonal averages, with dry weather
through at least Saturday. By Sunday hints of a pattern change
appears to be in the works.
By Sunday, both EC and GFS are indicating a deep western trough
carving its way into the otherwise zonal flow aloft. Ahead of this
trough a surface low will glide through the area, generally without
event, although north of the low there could be some very light
precipitation late Sunday into Monday. However, the bigger event
next week would be in the Monday-Tuesday time frame as the
previously mentioned trough ejects eastward. This trough has the
potential to cause some high impact winter weather across portions
of the Great Plains and MO/MS River Valleys early/middle next week.
While the models have been generally inconsistent in resolving this
trough, there seems to be a better signal or momentum within the GFS
and EC to take the system on what seems to be the more preferred
track for winter storms this season, which is through northern
Kansas and eastern Nebraska. This track would generally leave most
of NE Kansas and NW Missouri out of its cross hairs. However, the
12z EC reminded us that the track will still likely take a few
twists and turns before being more finely resolved, likely sometime
this weekend. While the 12z EC indicated a track that would bring a
significant winter storm to this area, the 00z GFS/EC have generally
indicated the track of the system closer to what the previous runs
prior to the 12z EC indicated, which is more of a northern track. At
any rate, much about this potential system next week is up in the
air, and uncertainty with respect to any potential impacts is very
high.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 523 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
Expect the stratus to hang in there through most of the day at the
terminals. Despite no real sign of the cloud deck breaking up, the
cloud layer appears to be rather thin (perhaps only a few hundred
feet thick), so it`s conceivable that there could be some temporary
breaks in the clouds. That being said, felt prevailing MVFR was the
way to go for the time being, and perhaps some TEMPO groups for mid
day breaks is the way to go for those temporary periods. There are
hints of clouds breaking up as early as 00z, but other trends say
closer to 06z. Thereafter it appears skies will be clear for the
duration of this forecast period.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
341 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
Post frontal stratus overspreads the area this morning with
temperatures below freezing. This stratus deck is only a few hundred
meters thick according to RAP forecast soundings, with dry air
within the dendritic growth layer, so snow flurries are unlikely
with any of this stratus through the day. There was some hope
earlier that perhaps these clouds would mix out today, given that
forecast soundings indicated a T/Td spread within the cloud bearing
level, but latest RAP soundings for today continue to indicate
saturation through the day, and thus no breaks in the cloud cover.
Considering how thin the saturated layer is, it wouldn`t be
inconceivable to see a few temporary breaks in the clouds through
the day. At any rate, the good news is that the surface ridge
responsible for this latest push of cold air will push to the east,
with the southerly wind bearing back side of the ridge moving in for
Wednesday. The switch in winds will allow for a gradual warm up for
the rest of the week, starting with 30s and 40s for Wednesday, then
warming into the 50s by Friday. H85 temperatures for Friday could
push the double digits (C), so with any half decent mixing in the
lower levels temperatures could conceivably shoot through the 50s
and land in the 60s, mainly along and south of Interstate 70. Even
north of I-70 there could be temperatures in the 50s. Given the
zonal mid level flow with little signs of any support for ascent
expect the remainder of the week to be dry. The weekend should see
temperatures remain well above seasonal averages, with dry weather
through at least Saturday. By Sunday hints of a pattern change
appears to be in the works.
By Sunday, both EC and GFS are indicating a deep western trough
carving its way into the otherwise zonal flow aloft. Ahead of this
trough a surface low will glide through the area, generally without
event, although north of the low there could be some very light
precipitation late Sunday into Monday. However, the bigger event
next week would be in the Monday-Tuesday time frame as the
previously mentioned trough ejects eastward. This trough has the
potential to cause some high impact winter weather across portions
of the Great Plains and MO/MS River Valleys early/middle next week.
While the models have been generally inconsistent in resolving this
trough, there seems to be a better signal or momentum within the GFS
and EC to take the system on what seems to be the more preferred
track for winter storms this season, which is through northern
Kansas and eastern Nebraska. This track would generally leave most
of NE Kansas and NW Missouri out of its cross hairs. However, the
12z EC reminded us that the track will still likely take a few
twists and turns before being more finely resolved, likely sometime
this weekend. While the 12z EC indicated a track that would bring a
significant winter storm to this area, the 00z GFS/EC have generally
indicated the track of the system closer to what the previous runs
prior to the 12z EC indicated, which is more of a northern track. At
any rate, much about this potential system next week is up in the
air, and uncertainty with respect to any potential impacts is very
high.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1109 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
MVFR ceilings look to be the primary aviation concern. Saturated
layer below H9 should hold in stratus for much of Tuesday, with some
signal for clouds to thin by late evening.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Blair
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1042 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
.SHORT TERM: (Through Tuesday)
Issued at 242 PM CST Mon Jan 25 2016
Strong little shortwave with a 34 vortmax on the RAP is currently
moving through eastern Missouri. The center of the associated
surface low looks to be near or right over KFFL (Fairfield IA), and
the cold front will be pushing into our central Missouri counties
shortly. Little if any precip reaching the ground at this time in
our CWFA, and the precip threat should end entirely after FROPA.
There`s still a decent likelihood of some light rain up across our
far northern zones...and a chance there could be some light showers
late this afternoon into the evening until the front moves through.
Should see good cold advection behind the front, but the low is
moving northeast and the wind never really veers beyond about 290-
300 degrees, so this won`t be an Arctic outbreak or anything. Should
see temperatures drop quickly into the 30s behind the
front...bottoming out Tuesday morning in the upper 20s to around 30.
Think there will be plenty of stratus/strato-cu lingering over the
area on Tuesday, and with west-northwest flow continuing I don`t
expect temperatures to make it out of the 30s except over far
southern zones where breaks in the overcast are likely.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday night through Next Monday)
Issued at 242 PM CST Mon Jan 25 2016
As surface ridge builds into the region Tuesday night, upper
level shortwave to slide through. No precipitation expected with
this system, but clouds associated with it will begin to scatter
out towards daybreak Wednesday morning. Otherwise, colder air to
filter in with lows near normal in the upper teens to mid 20s.
Then on Wednesday, surface ridge moves off to our east allowing
southerly winds to return to the region. Highs will be near normal
in the mid 30s to low 40s, then begin a gradual warmup for the rest
of the work week and into the weekend as upper level ridging becomes
more zonal. Will see another system slide through on Thursday, but
it will be moisture starved as well with only an increase in mid and
high clouds. By Saturday, highs will be in the low 50s to low 60s
and lows Saturday night in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
Extended models continue to show system developing over the
panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas beginning Saturday night, though
there are some timing and strength differences among them. Warm
frontal boundary associated with it to lift into southern portions
of forecast area by Sunday with increasing chances of precipitation
Sunday night and Monday. At this time, precipitation to remain in
the form of rain as temperatures stay above normal through the
period.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1025 PM CST Mon Jan 25 2016
Surface low has moved northeastward into southeast WI with
trailing cold front east of the taf sites. MVFR post frontal
stratus clouds have invaded the taf sites this evening. Surface
winds have also become strong and gusty from a wly direction since
fropa due to a tight surface pressure gradient between the surface
low and a surface ridge over the Plains. MVFR cigs will continue
late tonight and Tuesday, possibly improving into the VFR
catagory Tuesday evening. Surface winds will diminish Tuesday
evening as surface high center moves into western MO.
Specifics for KSTL: MVFR cigs will continue through at least
Tuesday, possibly improving to VFR Tuesday night. The strong and
gusty wly surface winds will weaken late Tuesday afternoon and
night.
GKS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 30 38 25 38 / 10 5 5 0
Quincy 27 33 20 35 / 10 5 0 0
Columbia 28 35 21 39 / 10 5 5 0
Jefferson City 30 37 21 39 / 10 5 5 0
Salem 32 37 24 35 / 20 5 5 0
Farmington 30 39 22 38 / 10 5 5 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1140 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUDS.
THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE ICING AND SNOW TO THE LOCAL AREA
MONDAY IS NOW PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SNOW AMOUNTS (IN
INCHES) WERE 0.3 AT OMA/3.1 AT LNK/0.1 AT OFK . THAT BRINGS THE
SEASONAL TOTALS TO 21.1/13.2/24.5 RESPECTIVELY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION AND NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...WILL BRING SOME REINFORCING COLD AIR INTO IOWA. A BAND OF
CLOUDS IN THIS NORTHWEST SHOULD PERSIST...THEN TEND TO BREAK UP
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM HAD SOME CAPE
ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE HRRR WAS INDICATING SOME
FLURRIES POSSIBLE. WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW COVERAGE. WITH THE
CLOUDS/SOME BREAKS AND RECENT SNOW...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S TO LOWER 30S CAN BE EXPECTED.
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WE ARE LOOKING FOR A LESS ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN AND FOR TEMPERATURES TO TRY TO WARM INTO THE 30S AND 40S.
SOME WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK H85 TROUGH
PASSAGE. ANY COOLING IS SHORT-LIVED AS WARM WEDGE OF AIR ARRIVES
FRIDAY. NOT SURE THAT WE WILL MAKE THE 50S FRIDAY...HOWEVER
NEIGHBORS DO HAVE 50S IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
...POTENTIAL WINTER STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK...STILL A LONG WAY OUT
THOUGH...
A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY AND COULD AFFECT AREAS TOWARD SIOUX CITY...HOWEVER LOOKS
MAINLY DRY LOCALLY. A STRONG 130KT JET PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND BY FRIDAY NIGHT HAS MADE IT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THE EC HAS STRONG WARMING WITH RIPPLE IN
THE FLOW AND A THERMAL GRADIENT WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A
TROUGH HAS MOVED ONSHORE.
MONDAY AND ON GROUNDHOG`S DAY...THE MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL
STORM TRACKING FROM THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION INTO THE PLAINS. THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM COULD HAVE MIXED PRECIPITATION...BEFORE IT TURNS TO
ALL SNOW. THE 00Z LONG-RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. SINCE THE
ORIGINS OF THE STORM ARE STILL SEVERAL THOUSAND MILES OFF THE
WEST COAST AND WILL NOT COME ONSHORE UNTIL SUNDAY...IT IS STILL A
LONG WAYS OUT AND THE EVOLUTION CAN CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
MVFR CIGS NEAR FL025 WILL GRADUALLY LIFT/MOVE EAST OF TAF SITES
BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z. LIGHT WINDS COMBINED WITH SATURATED LOW LEVEL
ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MVFR
FOG AT ALL SITES BEFORE 06Z...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR VSBYS
BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z WHEN 1/2SM VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE. A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO HIGH-END MVFR VSBYS IS EXPECTED BY 16Z WEDNESDAY.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DERGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1115 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
THE RAP MODEL MOVES THE BANK OF STRATUS ACROSS NCNTL NEB VERY
SLOWLY EAST TODAY AND PRESUMABLY INTO THE MISSOURI BASIN TONIGHT.
THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY. A BLEND
OF 4 MOS DATA SETS PLUS BIAS CORRECTION SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 40S SOUTH TO LOWER 30S NORTH.
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS MORNING
WILL BE OVER MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
850-700MB WINDS INCREASE TO 25 TO 35KT TONIGHT WITH WARM AIR
ADVANCING SIMILARLY. H850 TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 2 TO 5C. THIS
WOULD LIKELY LIMIT LOWS TO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. NO SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
WARM UP CONTINUES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS WESTERN RIDGE
EXPANDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE WARM
TEMPS WITH 850 MB TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
0C...WHILE THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENT WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 10C
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NOT SURPRISING THE CORRESPONDING MOS
GUIDANCE IS COOLER FOR THE MEX. BELIEVE THE GFS COOL DOWN IS
SOMEWHAT RELATED TO THE RECENT SNOW FALL. SOME MELTING OCCURRED
YESTERDAY AND EXPECT MORE EACH PASSING DAY SO BY FRIDAY MOST
AREAS WILL SEE LITTLE...THUS WILL CONTINUE FORECAST SIMILAR TO
GOING...WHICH IS CLOSER TO WARMER EC.
NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED SATURDAY. MODELS ARE WAVERING
ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WITH A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST ON
PRECIP. TEMPS WILL BE COOLING...HOWEVER AFTERNOON STILL WARMS
ABOVE FREEZING AND RAIN OR A MIX IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST FOR
THE AFTERNOON.
A SECONDARY WAVE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A
BETTER SHOT AT PRECIP. AGAIN TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY AS AFTERNOON TEMPS NEAR 40 COULD SEE A MIX BAG FOR PRECIP
TYPE.
EARLY NEXT WEEK A TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS REGION.
MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. MODELS HAVE NOT
SHOWN GREAT CONSISTENCY OVER THE PASS SEVERAL RUNS WITH THE
TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND WILL GO WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE
MODEL BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
VFR CONDITIONS AND WEST WINDS UNDER 12 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. DEPENDING HOW
QUICKLY THE STRATUS DECK OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA MOVES EAST
TONIGHT...THERE IS AN OFF CHANCE OF SOME FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING
NEAR KONL.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...SNIVELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
520 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUDS.
THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE ICING AND SNOW TO THE LOCAL AREA
MONDAY IS NOW PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SNOW AMOUNTS (IN
INCHES) WERE 0.3 AT OMA/3.1 AT LNK/0.1 AT OFK . THAT BRINGS THE
SEASONAL TOTALS TO 21.1/13.2/24.5 RESPECTIVELY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION AND NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...WILL BRING SOME REINFORCING COLD AIR INTO IOWA. A BAND OF
CLOUDS IN THIS NORTHWEST SHOULD PERSIST...THEN TEND TO BREAK UP
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM HAD SOME CAPE
ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE HRRR WAS INDICATING SOME
FLURRIES POSSIBLE. WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW COVERAGE. WITH THE
CLOUDS/SOME BREAKS AND RECENT SNOW...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S TO LOWER 30S CAN BE EXPECTED.
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WE ARE LOOKING FOR A LESS ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN AND FOR TEMPERATURES TO TRY TO WARM INTO THE 30S AND 40S.
SOME WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK H85 TROUGH
PASSAGE. ANY COOLING IS SHORT-LIVED AS WARM WEDGE OF AIR ARRIVES
FRIDAY. NOT SURE THAT WE WILL MAKE THE 50S FRIDAY...HOWEVER
NEIGHBORS DO HAVE 50S IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
...POTENTIAL WINTER STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK...STILL A LONG WAY OUT
THOUGH...
A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY AND COULD AFFECT AREAS TOWARD SIOUX CITY...HOWEVER LOOKS
MAINLY DRY LOCALLY. A STRONG 130KT JET PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND BY FRIDAY NIGHT HAS MADE IT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THE EC HAS STRONG WARMING WITH RIPPLE IN
THE FLOW AND A THERMAL GRADIENT WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A
TROUGH HAS MOVED ONSHORE.
MONDAY AND ON GROUNDHOG`S DAY...THE MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL
STORM TRACKING FROM THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION INTO THE PLAINS. THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM COULD HAVE MIXED PRECIPITATION...BEFORE IT TURNS TO
ALL SNOW. THE 00Z LONG-RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. SINCE THE
ORIGINS OF THE STORM ARE STILL SEVERAL THOUSAND MILES OFF THE
WEST COAST AND WILL NOT COME ONSHORE UNTIL SUNDAY...IT IS STILL A
LONG WAYS OUT AND THE EVOLUTION CAN CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES MAINLY 1500-2500 FEET BLANKET ERN NE AND ALL
THREE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THESE CLOUDS. WE EXPECT
THAT IN GENERAL...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE DAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DECREASE TODAY...THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS EVENING. WENT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
514 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
THE RAP MODEL MOVES THE BANK OF STRATUS ACROSS NCNTL NEB VERY
SLOWLY EAST TODAY AND PRESUMABLY INTO THE MISSOURI BASIN TONIGHT.
THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY. A BLEND
OF 4 MOS DATA SETS PLUS BIAS CORRECTION SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 40S SOUTH TO LOWER 30S NORTH.
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS MORNING
WILL BE OVER MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
850-700MB WINDS INCREASE TO 25 TO 35KT TONIGHT WITH WARM AIR
ADVANCING SIMILARLY. H850 TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 2 TO 5C. THIS
WOULD LIKELY LIMIT LOWS TO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. NO SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
WARM UP CONTINUES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS WESTERN RIDGE
EXPANDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE WARM
TEMPS WITH 850 MB TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
0C...WHILE THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENT WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 10C
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NOT SURPRISING THE CORRESPONDING MOS
GUIDANCE IS COOLER FOR THE MEX. BELIEVE THE GFS COOL DOWN IS
SOMEWHAT RELATED TO THE RECENT SNOW FALL. SOME MELTING OCCURRED
YESTERDAY AND EXPECT MORE EACH PASSING DAY SO BY FRIDAY MOST
AREAS WILL SEE LITTLE...THUS WILL CONTINUE FORECAST SIMILAR TO
GOING...WHICH IS CLOSER TO WARMER EC.
NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED SATURDAY. MODELS ARE WAVERING
ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WITH A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST ON
PRECIP. TEMPS WILL BE COOLING...HOWEVER AFTERNOON STILL WARMS
ABOVE FREEZING AND RAIN OR A MIX IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST FOR
THE AFTERNOON.
A SECONDARY WAVE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A
BETTER SHOT AT PRECIP. AGAIN TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY AS AFTERNOON TEMPS NEAR 40 COULD SEE A MIX BAG FOR PRECIP
TYPE.
EARLY NEXT WEEK A TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS REGION.
MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. MODELS HAVE NOT
SHOWN GREAT CONSISTENCY OVER THE PASS SEVERAL RUNS WITH THE
TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND WILL GO WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE
MODEL BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
THE BANK OF MVFR CIGS OVER AND NEAR KONL MOVES VERY SLOWLY EAST
TODAY ACCORDING TO THE RAP MODEL AND THE SREF. THE MVFR COULD VERY
WELL LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
342 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
THE RAP MODEL MOVES THE BANK OF STRATUS ACROSS NCNTL NEB VERY
SLOWLY EAST TODAY AND PRESUMABLY INTO THE MISSOURI BASIN TONIGHT.
THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY. A BLEND
OF 4 MOS DATA SETS PLUS BIAS CORRECTION SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 40S SOUTH TO LOWER 30S NORTH.
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS MORNING
WILL BE OVER MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
850-700MB WINDS INCREASE TO 25 TO 35KT TONIGHT WITH WARM AIR
ADVANCING SIMILARLY. H850 TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 2 TO 5C. THIS
WOULD LIKELY LIMIT LOWS TO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. NO SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
WARM UP CONTINUES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS WESTERN RIDGE
EXPANDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE WARM
TEMPS WITH 850 MB TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
0C...WHILE THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENT WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 10C
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NOT SURPRISING THE CORRESPONDING MOS
GUIDANCE IS COOLER FOR THE MEX. BELIEVE THE GFS COOL DOWN IS
SOMEWHAT RELATED TO THE RECENT SNOW FALL. SOME MELTING OCCURRED
YESTERDAY AND EXPECT MORE EACH PASSING DAY SO BY FRIDAY MOST
AREAS WILL SEE LITTLE...THUS WILL CONTINUE FORECAST SIMILAR TO
GOING...WHICH IS CLOSER TO WARMER EC.
NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED SATURDAY. MODELS ARE WAVERING
ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WITH A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST ON
PRECIP. TEMPS WILL BE COOLING...HOWEVER AFTERNOON STILL WARMS
ABOVE FREEZING AND RAIN OR A MIX IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST FOR
THE AFTERNOON.
A SECONDARY WAVE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A
BETTER SHOT AT PRECIP. AGAIN TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY AS AFTERNOON TEMPS NEAR 40 COULD SEE A MIX BAG FOR PRECIP
TYPE.
EARLY NEXT WEEK A TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS REGION.
MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. MODELS HAVE NOT
SHOWN GREAT CONSISTENCY OVER THE PASS SEVERAL RUNS WITH THE
TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND WILL GO WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE
MODEL BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE NEXT 6 HOURS. SOME BROKEN CIGS AROUND 1500
FT AGL ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...BUTTLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
327 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUDS.
THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE ICING AND SNOW TO THE LOCAL AREA
MONDAY IS NOW PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SNOW AMOUNTS (IN
INCHES) WERE 0.3 AT OMA/3.1 AT LNK/0.1 AT OFK . THAT BRINGS THE
SEASONAL TOTALS TO 21.1/13.2/24.5 RESPECTIVELY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION AND NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...WILL BRING SOME REINFORCING COLD AIR INTO IOWA. A BAND OF
CLOUDS IN THIS NORTHWEST SHOULD PERSIST...THEN TEND TO BREAK UP
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM HAD SOME CAPE
ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE HRRR WAS INDICATING SOME
FLURRIES POSSIBLE. WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW COVERAGE. WITH THE
CLOUDS/SOME BREAKS AND RECENT SNOW...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S TO LOWER 30S CAN BE EXPECTED.
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WE ARE LOOKING FOR A LESS ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN AND FOR TEMPERATURES TO TRY TO WARM INTO THE 30S AND 40S.
SOME WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK H85 TROUGH
PASSAGE. ANY COOLING IS SHORT-LIVED AS WARM WEDGE OF AIR ARRIVES
FRIDAY. NOT SURE THAT WE WILL MAKE THE 50S FRIDAY...HOWEVER
NEIGHBORS DO HAVE 50S IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
...POTENTIAL WINTER STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK...STILL A LONG WAY OUT
THOUGH...
A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY AND COULD AFFECT AREAS TOWARD SIOUX CITY...HOWEVER LOOKS
MAINLY DRY LOCALLY. A STRONG 130KT JET PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND BY FRIDAY NIGHT HAS MADE IT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THE EC HAS STRONG WARMING WITH RIPPLE IN
THE FLOW AND A THERMAL GRADIENT WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A
TROUGH HAS MOVED ONSHORE.
MONDAY AND ON GROUNDHOG`S DAY...THE MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL
STORM TRACKING FROM THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION INTO THE PLAINS. THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM COULD HAVE MIXED PRECIPITATION...BEFORE IT TURNS TO
ALL SNOW. THE 00Z LONG-RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. SINCE THE
ORIGINS OF THE STORM ARE STILL SEVERAL THOUSAND MILES OFF THE
WEST COAST AND WILL NOT COME ONSHORE UNTIL SUNDAY...IT IS STILL A
LONG WAYS OUT AND THE EVOLUTION CAN CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT
WAVE THROUGH 18Z. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE TAF SITES UNTIL AT LEAST 12Z WITH DECREASING LOW CLOUDS
THROUGH 18Z. WARM FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...FOBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
113 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN CATSKILLS
IN NEW YORK. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES DURING THE
EVENING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TO
AREAS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR ONEIDA COUNTY
THROUGH 10 AM THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE
A FAVORABLE PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THIS AREA WITH SFC
TEMPS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING AND A LAYER OF WARM AIR ALOFT
PERSISTING AS THE COLUMN SATURATES AND THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH
THE SWATH OF PRECIP. AREAS TO THE SOUTH WILL TAKE A WHILE LONGER
TO SATURATE...AND BY THAT TIME SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING AND BE MAINLY A RAIN EVENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
9 PM UPDATE...
AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE OUR WAY OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY. WITH A 15 DEGREE DEW POINT SPREAD, NOTHING MORE THAN
SPRINKLES ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE MOMENT ACROSS OHIO. THE HRRR
SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS PRECIPITATION AND EXPANDS
IT IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY INTO CENTRAL NY. UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS BECAUSE WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH DRY AIR NOT ONLY
IN THE LOW LEVELS BUT MID LEVELS. THIS WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF VIRGA AT THE START, FOLLOWED BY SPOTTY VERY LIGHT QPF.
SO THE TRANSLATION FOR MOST OF THE AREA IS A FEW SPRINKLES AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT.
HOWEVER ACROSS CENTRAL NY, WHILE THE HRRR MAY BE A TAD TOO HEAVY
ON THE QPF, ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT OF OUR ENTIRE AREA
THIS IS THE AREA TO WATCH FOR SOME LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION
AN EAST FLOW OF AIR IS FUNNELING COLDER AIR UP THE MOHAWK VALLEY,
AS EVIDENT IN THE 30/19 READING LAST HOUR AT KSYR. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN HERE. CONFIDENCE
JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT UP AN ADVISORY JUST YET. TO INCREASE
AWARENESS HOWEVER BEFORE THE 10/11 PM NEWS AND BEFORE PEOPLE GO TO
BED, I DID ISSUE AN SPS ON THIS POSSIBILITY. WHILE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF ICE IS POSSIBLE NEAR SYRACUSE AND UTICA, BEST CHANCES FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD WOULD BE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY.
BOTTOMLINE IF YOU LIVE IN CENTRAL NY, CHECK BACK BEFORE YOU HEAD
OUT IN THE MORNING FOR ANY POSSIBLE ADVISORIES. PREVIOUS AFD IS
BELOW...
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...WEAK WAA FORCING DURING THE MORNING HOURS MAY BRING A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY,
TUG HILL PLATEAU AND WESTERN CATSKILLS A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE. DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE, WEAK FORCING
AND MARGINAL SFC TEMPS NOT CONCERNED ABOUT ANY TRAVEL ISSUES.
LATE IN THE DAY A WEAK SFC TROF WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA KEEPING
LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40
TO THE MID 40S.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...H5 TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION WHILE
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH WED MORNING. LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES FAVORABLE FOR LES ACROSS NRN ONEIDA COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THEN THE FLOW GRADUALLY VEERS THROUGH MIDDAY WED AS THE SFC TROF
DROPS SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS NRN ONEIDA
COUNTY THEN SPREAD THE LIKELY POPS TO AREAS SE OF THE LAKE WED
MORNING. TOTAL ACCUMS THROUGH 24 HOURS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 5
INCHES WITH NRN ONEIDA COUNTY MOSTLY LIKELY TO REACH THE HIGHER
END OF THIS RANGE. REST OF CENTRAL NY WILL JUST SEE SCATTERED
FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS IN NE PA.
LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 WITH HIGHS WED IN
THE 30S.
WED NIGHT/THURSDAY...A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER AS BRIEF RIDGING AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT OCCURS WED NIGHT. ON THURSDAY, THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES AS SFC LOW PRES TRACKS
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. CLIPPERS MOVING WELL NORTH OF REGION
UNDER SW SFC FLOW USUALLY MEANS DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT CROSSES, WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
230 PM MONDAY UPDATE...
IN THE BIG PICTURE, A MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD PREVAIL
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. NEXT WEEKEND, THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL, WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT EXPECTED TO RISE
SOMEWHAT OVER THE EASTERN STATES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IN GENERAL, THE ABOVE MEANS NO BIG STORMS THROUGH AT LEAST MON.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEASONABLE FRI, WITH HIGHS RANGING
IN THE 30S. READINGS COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER-MIDDLE 40S OVER
PARTS OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, BEFORE THEY LOWER SOMEWHAT AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER-WISE, SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND, AS A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES/CLIPPERS TRACK ACROSS UPSTATE NY/NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND/SOUTHERN CANADA. STARTING MON, A PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION COULD ENSUE, AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ENERGIZES TO OUR
SOUTH, WHILE A DEVELOPING CYCLONE TRACKS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION TODAY. FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING FREEZING RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION... BEFORE SFC TEMPS RISE ABOVE
FREEZING. THESE SHOWERS WILL FALL INTO A LOT OF DRY AIR AND EXPECT
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY TO EVAPORATE BEFORE MAKING IT TO THE SFC.
ATTM EXPECT FZRA TO IMPACT KRME... CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ATTM TO
PLACE IN OTHER TAF SITES. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO IMPACT MUCH OF
THE AREA AS THIS INITIAL ROUND OF ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH.
A SECONDARY BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO REMAIN MOSTLY VFR. LE SNOW SHOWER WILL FOLLOW AFTER 00Z AND
IMPACT KSYR AND KRME.
FOR THE MOST PART WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND LESS THAN 12 KNOTS
THIS MORNING... THEN BECOMING GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS. ALOFT WINDS
ARE FAIRLY STRONG AND LLWS IS PRESENT THIS MORNING AND MAY LAST
THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK...
TU NGT/WED/WED NGT...RESTRICTIONS PROBABLE IN PASSING SNOW
SHOWERS AT KRME/KSYR/KITH/KBGM, WITH VFR MUCH OF THE TIME AT
KELM/KAVP.
THU...VFR.
FRI-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ009-
037.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...BJT/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...KAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1247 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN CATSKILLS
IN NEW YORK. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES DURING THE
EVENING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TO
AREAS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR ONEIDA COUNTY
THROUGH 10 AM THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE
A FAVORABLE PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THIS AREA WITH SFC
TEMPS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING AND A LAYER OF WARM AIR ALOFT
PERSISTING AS THE COLUMN SATURATES AND THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH
THE SWATH OF PRECIP. AREAS TO THE SOUTH WILL TAKE A WHILE LONGER
TO SATURATE...AND BY THAT TIME SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING AND BE MAINLY A RAIN EVENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
9 PM UPDATE...
AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE OUR WAY OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY. WITH A 15 DEGREE DEW POINT SPREAD, NOTHING MORE THAN
SPRINKLES ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE MOMENT ACROSS OHIO. THE HRRR
SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS PRECIPITATION AND EXPANDS
IT IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY INTO CENTRAL NY. UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS BECAUSE WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH DRY AIR NOT ONLY
IN THE LOW LEVELS BUT MID LEVELS. THIS WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF VIRGA AT THE START, FOLLOWED BY SPOTTY VERY LIGHT QPF.
SO THE TRANSLATION FOR MOST OF THE AREA IS A FEW SPRINKLES AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT.
HOWEVER ACROSS CENTRAL NY, WHILE THE HRRR MAY BE A TAD TOO HEAVY
ON THE QPF, ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT OF OUR ENTIRE AREA
THIS IS THE AREA TO WATCH FOR SOME LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION
AN EAST FLOW OF AIR IS FUNNELING COLDER AIR UP THE MOHAWK VALLEY,
AS EVIDENT IN THE 30/19 READING LAST HOUR AT KSYR. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN HERE. CONFIDENCE
JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT UP AN ADVISORY JUST YET. TO INCREASE
AWARENESS HOWEVER BEFORE THE 10/11 PM NEWS AND BEFORE PEOPLE GO TO
BED, I DID ISSUE AN SPS ON THIS POSSIBILITY. WHILE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF ICE IS POSSIBLE NEAR SYRACUSE AND UTICA, BEST CHANCES FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD WOULD BE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY.
BOTTOMLINE IF YOU LIVE IN CENTRAL NY, CHECK BACK BEFORE YOU HEAD
OUT IN THE MORNING FOR ANY POSSIBLE ADVISORIES. PREVIOUS AFD IS
BELOW...
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...WEAK WAA FORCING DURING THE MORNING HOURS MAY BRING A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY,
TUG HILL PLATEAU AND WESTERN CATSKILLS A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE. DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE, WEAK FORCING
AND MARGINAL SFC TEMPS NOT CONCERNED ABOUT ANY TRAVEL ISSUES.
LATE IN THE DAY A WEAK SFC TROF WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA KEEPING
LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40
TO THE MID 40S.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...H5 TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION WHILE
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH WED MORNING. LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES FAVORABLE FOR LES ACROSS NRN ONEIDA COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THEN THE FLOW GRADUALLY VEERS THROUGH MIDDAY WED AS THE SFC TROF
DROPS SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS NRN ONEIDA
COUNTY THEN SPREAD THE LIKELY POPS TO AREAS SE OF THE LAKE WED
MORNING. TOTAL ACCUMS THROUGH 24 HOURS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 5
INCHES WITH NRN ONEIDA COUNTY MOSTLY LIKELY TO REACH THE HIGHER
END OF THIS RANGE. REST OF CENTRAL NY WILL JUST SEE SCATTERED
FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS IN NE PA.
LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 WITH HIGHS WED IN
THE 30S.
WED NIGHT/THURSDAY...A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER AS BRIEF RIDGING AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT OCCURS WED NIGHT. ON THURSDAY, THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES AS SFC LOW PRES TRACKS
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. CLIPPERS MOVING WELL NORTH OF REGION
UNDER SW SFC FLOW USUALLY MEANS DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT CROSSES, WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
230 PM MONDAY UPDATE...
IN THE BIG PICTURE, A MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD PREVAIL
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. NEXT WEEKEND, THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL, WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT EXPECTED TO RISE
SOMEWHAT OVER THE EASTERN STATES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IN GENERAL, THE ABOVE MEANS NO BIG STORMS THROUGH AT LEAST MON.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEASONABLE FRI, WITH HIGHS RANGING
IN THE 30S. READINGS COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER-MIDDLE 40S OVER
PARTS OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, BEFORE THEY LOWER SOMEWHAT AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER-WISE, SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND, AS A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES/CLIPPERS TRACK ACROSS UPSTATE NY/NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND/SOUTHERN CANADA. STARTING MON, A PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION COULD ENSUE, AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ENERGIZES TO OUR
SOUTH, WHILE A DEVELOPING CYCLONE TRACKS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE...
AFTER VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS MOST OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CLOUDS
WILL MOVE IN BETWEEN 9 AND 12Z. SHOULD DROP TO 1500 FT AND FUEL
ALTERNATES AT RME/BGM/ITH/AVP. MAYBE ALL THE WAY TO IFR AT BGM.
ALSO DURING THIS TIME COULD BE A LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN
SHOWER. CIGS LIFT BACK TO VFR 14 TO 19Z.
SE TO S WINDS 4 TO 8 KTS TONIGHT. TUESDAY MORNING S WINDS 10 KTS
SHIFTING TO SW AND INCREASING TO 10 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
.OUTLOOK...
TU NGT/WED/WED NGT...RESTRICTIONS PROBABLE IN PASSING SNOW
SHOWERS AT KRME/KSYR/KITH/KBGM, WITH VFR MUCH OF THE TIME AT
KELM/KAVP.
THU...VFR.
FRI-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ009-
037.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...BJT/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
121 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 117 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
ONLY A NARROW PATCH OF DENSE FOG REMAINS IN THE RAY AND TIOGA
AREAS AS OF 19 UTC...THUS...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED
ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WITH THIS UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 951 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 19 UTC ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AS WEBCAM AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THROUGH 1545 UTC
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN EXPANSION OF THE DENSE FOG.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 844 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
ADDED FOG TO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA PER WEBCAM AND SURFACE
OBSERVATION TRENDS THROUGH 1430 UTC. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS THIS MORNING AS THE 12 UTC NAM NEST AND 12-13 UTC HRRR
ITERATIONS IN THEIR CEILING AND VISIBILITY FIELDS SUGGEST THIS FOG
AND STRATUS MAY LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
WE ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH 17 UTC OVER WEST
CENTRAL AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND...FROM WATFORD CITY TO BEACH AND
BOWMAN...WITH THIS UPDATE. THAT WAS BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS
AND HRRR SIMULATIONS. WE ALSO CUT BACK THE MENTION OF FLURRIES IN
THE FORECAST SO THAT IT ONLY EXTENDS FROM CROSBY OVER TOWARD RUGBY
AND JAMESTOWN BASED ON AWOS/ASOS TRENDS IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
NO MAJOR FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
CURRENTLY...STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION. EXTENSIVE
AREA OF STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION IS
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHICH HAS BEEN CLEAR FOR THE BETTER PART
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. STRATUS IS SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTH AND
WEST...BUT IT NOW APPEARS THE SOUTHWEST CORNER WILL REMAIN STRATUS
FREE THIS MORNING.
FINALLY EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO SLOWLY SCATTER OUT AND LIFT
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ALLOWING
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S EAST WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN FOR MOST OF
THE AFTERNOON...TO THE LOW 30S SOUTHWEST WHICH REMAINS STRATUS
FREE.
CLIPPER SYSTEM ADVECTING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA WILL BRING STRONG WAA AND BREEZY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
THIS EVENING WEST AND OVERNIGHT CENTRAL AND EAST. EXPECT THIS TO
RESULT IN STEADY TO RISING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS LIKELY RECORDING THEIR 24 HOUR HIGHS MID TO LATE
EVENING. MODELS BRING SOME LIGHT QPF TO MY NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES...AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION...AFTER 06Z. THERMAL
PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST FREEZING RAIN. MENTIONED THIS IN THE HWO
FOR TONIGHT/WED MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK...BEFORE A COOL-
ARRIVES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER TRACKS NORTH OF THE STATE WITH A CORE OF 50
KT 850-MB WINDS ON ITS SOUTHWESTERN FLANK. WE ARE A BIT CONCERNED
ABOUT HEADLINE-WORTHY WINDS...BUT THE 00 UTC MODEL SUITE PROVIDED
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THAT GIVEN 1/ A MAXIMUM MIXING DEPTH UNDER 850
MB...2/ A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...AND 3/ SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES OF 3 MB/3 HOURS OR LESS. HAVING SAID THAT...THE PROBABILITY
OF ADVISORY-TYPE WINDS WILL BE GREATEST /THOUGH SUBJECTIVELY ONLY
NEAR 40 PERCENT/ FROM MINOT TOWARD JAMESTOWN WHERE LOW-LEVEL COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE PROMINENT. ANOTHER CLIPPER IS
THEN EXPECTED TO BRING MORE GUSTY WINDS ON FRIDAY. MILD WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THIS REGIME...WITH HIGHS
WARMEST /IN THE 40S F/ OVER SOUTHWESTERN ND.
BY THIS WEEKEND...FLOW ALOFT WILL DEAMPLIFY AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL
AS A PACIFIC TROUGH REACHES THE WEST COAST AND THEN MOVES EASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 00 UTC GFS
AND ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLES SUGGEST MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THAT
TROUGH WILL STAY SOUTH OF ND...BUT THE MULTI-MODEL BLEND THAT WAS
USED TO BUILD THE FORECAST STILL SUPPORTED LOW-END PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN SEVERAL PERIODS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST BOTH DUE TO
THE FRIDAY CLIPPER PASSAGE AND THEN THE PATTERN TRANSITION. HIGHS
WILL FALL BACK TOWARD NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
MVFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AT KMOT/KBIS/KJMS MAY FALL TOWARDS IFR
AFTER SUNSET AND THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE EVOLUTION OF THE
STRATUS THROUGH THE NIGHT IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. KDIK AND KISN ARE
FAVORED TO REMAIN VFR FOR THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
WESTERLY GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
952 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 19 UTC ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AS WEBCAM AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THROUGH 1545 UTC
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN EXPANSION OF THE DENSE FOG.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 844 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
ADDED FOG TO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA PER WEBCAM AND SURFACE
OBSERVATION TRENDS THROUGH 1430 UTC. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS THIS MORNING AS THE 12 UTC NAM NEST AND 12-13 UTC HRRR
ITERATIONS IN THEIR CEILING AND VISIBILITY FIELDS SUGGEST THIS FOG
AND STRATUS MAY LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
WE ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH 17 UTC OVER WEST
CENTRAL AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND...FROM WATFORD CITY TO BEACH AND
BOWMAN...WITH THIS UPDATE. THAT WAS BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS
AND HRRR SIMULATIONS. WE ALSO CUT BACK THE MENTION OF FLURRIES IN
THE FORECAST SO THAT IT ONLY EXTENDS FROM CROSBY OVER TOWARD RUGBY
AND JAMESTOWN BASED ON AWOS/ASOS TRENDS IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
NO MAJOR FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
CURRENTLY...STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION. EXTENSIVE
AREA OF STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION IS
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHICH HAS BEEN CLEAR FOR THE BETTER PART
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. STRATUS IS SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTH AND
WEST...BUT IT NOW APPEARS THE SOUTHWEST CORNER WILL REMAIN STRATUS
FREE THIS MORNING.
FINALLY EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO SLOWLY SCATTER OUT AND LIFT
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ALLOWING
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S EAST WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN FOR MOST OF
THE AFTERNOON...TO THE LOW 30S SOUTHWEST WHICH REMAINS STRATUS
FREE.
CLIPPER SYSTEM ADVECTING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA WILL BRING STRONG WAA AND BREEZY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
THIS EVENING WEST AND OVERNIGHT CENTRAL AND EAST. EXPECT THIS TO
RESULT IN STEADY TO RISING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS LIKELY RECORDING THEIR 24 HOUR HIGHS MID TO LATE
EVENING. MODELS BRING SOME LIGHT QPF TO MY NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES...AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION...AFTER 06Z. THERMAL
PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST FREEZING RAIN. MENTIONED THIS IN THE HWO
FOR TONIGHT/WED MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK...BEFORE A COOL-
ARRIVES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER TRACKS NORTH OF THE STATE WITH A CORE OF 50
KT 850-MB WINDS ON ITS SOUTHWESTERN FLANK. WE ARE A BIT CONCERNED
ABOUT HEADLINE-WORTHY WINDS...BUT THE 00 UTC MODEL SUITE PROVIDED
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THAT GIVEN 1/ A MAXIMUM MIXING DEPTH UNDER 850
MB...2/ A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...AND 3/ SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES OF 3 MB/3 HOURS OR LESS. HAVING SAID THAT...THE PROBABILITY
OF ADVISORY-TYPE WINDS WILL BE GREATEST /THOUGH SUBJECTIVELY ONLY
NEAR 40 PERCENT/ FROM MINOT TOWARD JAMESTOWN WHERE LOW-LEVEL COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE PROMINENT. ANOTHER CLIPPER IS
THEN EXPECTED TO BRING MORE GUSTY WINDS ON FRIDAY. MILD WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THIS REGIME...WITH HIGHS
WARMEST /IN THE 40S F/ OVER SOUTHWESTERN ND.
BY THIS WEEKEND...FLOW ALOFT WILL DEAMPLIFY AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL
AS A PACIFIC TROUGH REACHES THE WEST COAST AND THEN MOVES EASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 00 UTC GFS
AND ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLES SUGGEST MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THAT
TROUGH WILL STAY SOUTH OF ND...BUT THE MULTI-MODEL BLEND THAT WAS
USED TO BUILD THE FORECAST STILL SUPPORTED LOW-END PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN SEVERAL PERIODS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST BOTH DUE TO
THE FRIDAY CLIPPER PASSAGE AND THEN THE PATTERN TRANSITION. HIGHS
WILL FALL BACK TOWARD NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 951 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT KISN THIS MORNING IN FOG AND STRATUS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS DOES REMAIN SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. ELSEWHERE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...A
SLOW CLEARING/SCATTERING TREND IN MVFR/IFR FOG AND STRATUS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ001-009-
017-018.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
848 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 844 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
ADDED FOG TO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA PER WEBCAM AND SURFACE
OBSERVATION TRENDS THROUGH 1430 UTC. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS THIS MORNING AS THE 12 UTC NAM NEST AND 12-13 UTC HRRR
ITERATIONS IN THEIR CEILING AND VISIBILITY FIELDS SUGGEST THIS FOG
AND STRATUS MAY LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
WE ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH 17 UTC OVER WEST
CENTRAL AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND...FROM WATFORD CITY TO BEACH AND
BOWMAN...WITH THIS UPDATE. THAT WAS BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS
AND HRRR SIMULATIONS. WE ALSO CUT BACK THE MENTION OF FLURRIES IN
THE FORECAST SO THAT IT ONLY EXTENDS FROM CROSBY OVER TOWARD RUGBY
AND JAMESTOWN BASED ON AWOS/ASOS TRENDS IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
NO MAJOR FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
CURRENTLY...STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION. EXTENSIVE
AREA OF STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION IS
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHICH HAS BEEN CLEAR FOR THE BETTER PART
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. STRATUS IS SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTH AND
WEST...BUT IT NOW APPEARS THE SOUTHWEST CORNER WILL REMAIN STRATUS
FREE THIS MORNING.
FINALLY EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO SLOWLY SCATTER OUT AND LIFT
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ALLOWING
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S EAST WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN FOR MOST OF
THE AFTERNOON...TO THE LOW 30S SOUTHWEST WHICH REMAINS STRATUS
FREE.
CLIPPER SYSTEM ADVECTING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA WILL BRING STRONG WAA AND BREEZY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
THIS EVENING WEST AND OVERNIGHT CENTRAL AND EAST. EXPECT THIS TO
RESULT IN STEADY TO RISING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS LIKELY RECORDING THEIR 24 HOUR HIGHS MID TO LATE
EVENING. MODELS BRING SOME LIGHT QPF TO MY NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES...AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION...AFTER 06Z. THERMAL
PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST FREEZING RAIN. MENTIONED THIS IN THE HWO
FOR TONIGHT/WED MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK...BEFORE A COOL-
ARRIVES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER TRACKS NORTH OF THE STATE WITH A CORE OF 50
KT 850-MB WINDS ON ITS SOUTHWESTERN FLANK. WE ARE A BIT CONCERNED
ABOUT HEADLINE-WORTHY WINDS...BUT THE 00 UTC MODEL SUITE PROVIDED
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THAT GIVEN 1/ A MAXIMUM MIXING DEPTH UNDER 850
MB...2/ A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...AND 3/ SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES OF 3 MB/3 HOURS OR LESS. HAVING SAID THAT...THE PROBABILITY
OF ADVISORY-TYPE WINDS WILL BE GREATEST /THOUGH SUBJECTIVELY ONLY
NEAR 40 PERCENT/ FROM MINOT TOWARD JAMESTOWN WHERE LOW-LEVEL COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE PROMINENT. ANOTHER CLIPPER IS
THEN EXPECTED TO BRING MORE GUSTY WINDS ON FRIDAY. MILD WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THIS REGIME...WITH HIGHS
WARMEST /IN THE 40S F/ OVER SOUTHWESTERN ND.
BY THIS WEEKEND...FLOW ALOFT WILL DEAMPLIFY AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL
AS A PACIFIC TROUGH REACHES THE WEST COAST AND THEN MOVES EASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 00 UTC GFS
AND ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLES SUGGEST MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THAT
TROUGH WILL STAY SOUTH OF ND...BUT THE MULTI-MODEL BLEND THAT WAS
USED TO BUILD THE FORECAST STILL SUPPORTED LOW-END PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN SEVERAL PERIODS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST BOTH DUE TO
THE FRIDAY CLIPPER PASSAGE AND THEN THE PATTERN TRANSITION. HIGHS
WILL FALL BACK TOWARD NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 844 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT KISN THIS MORNING IN FOG AND STRATUS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS DOES REMAIN SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. ELSEWHERE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...A
SLOW CLEARING/SCATTERING TREND IN MVFR/IFR FOG AND STRATUS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
645 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
WE ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH 17 UTC OVER WEST
CENTRAL AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND...FROM WATFORD CITY TO BEACH AND
BOWMAN...WITH THIS UPDATE. THAT WAS BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS
AND HRRR SIMULATIONS. WE ALSO CUT BACK THE MENTION OF FLURRIES IN
THE FORECAST SO THAT IT ONLY EXTENDS FROM CROSBY OVER TOWARD RUGBY
AND JAMESTOWN BASED ON AWOS/ASOS TRENDS IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
NO MAJOR FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
CURRENTLY...STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION. EXTENSIVE
AREA OF STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION IS
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHICH HAS BEEN CLEAR FOR THE BETTER PART
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. STRATUS IS SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTH AND
WEST...BUT IT NOW APPEARS THE SOUTHWEST CORNER WILL REMAIN STRATUS
FREE THIS MORNING.
FINALLY EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO SLOWLY SCATTER OUT AND LIFT
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ALLOWING
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S EAST WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN FOR MOST OF
THE AFTERNOON...TO THE LOW 30S SOUTHWEST WHICH REMAINS STRATUS
FREE.
CLIPPER SYSTEM ADVECTING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA WILL BRING STRONG WAA AND BREEZY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
THIS EVENING WEST AND OVERNIGHT CENTRAL AND EAST. EXPECT THIS TO
RESULT IN STEADY TO RISING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS LIKELY RECORDING THEIR 24 HOUR HIGHS MID TO LATE
EVENING. MODELS BRING SOME LIGHT QPF TO MY NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES...AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION...AFTER 06Z. THERMAL
PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST FREEZING RAIN. MENTIONED THIS IN THE HWO
FOR TONIGHT/WED MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK...BEFORE A COOL-
ARRIVES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER TRACKS NORTH OF THE STATE WITH A CORE OF 50
KT 850-MB WINDS ON ITS SOUTHWESTERN FLANK. WE ARE A BIT CONCERNED
ABOUT HEADLINE-WORTHY WINDS...BUT THE 00 UTC MODEL SUITE PROVIDED
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THAT GIVEN 1/ A MAXIMUM MIXING DEPTH UNDER 850
MB...2/ A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...AND 3/ SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES OF 3 MB/3 HOURS OR LESS. HAVING SAID THAT...THE PROBABILITY
OF ADVISORY-TYPE WINDS WILL BE GREATEST /THOUGH SUBJECTIVELY ONLY
NEAR 40 PERCENT/ FROM MINOT TOWARD JAMESTOWN WHERE LOW-LEVEL COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE PROMINENT. ANOTHER CLIPPER IS
THEN EXPECTED TO BRING MORE GUSTY WINDS ON FRIDAY. MILD WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THIS REGIME...WITH HIGHS
WARMEST /IN THE 40S F/ OVER SOUTHWESTERN ND.
BY THIS WEEKEND...FLOW ALOFT WILL DEAMPLIFY AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL
AS A PACIFIC TROUGH REACHES THE WEST COAST AND THEN MOVES EASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 00 UTC GFS
AND ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLES SUGGEST MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THAT
TROUGH WILL STAY SOUTH OF ND...BUT THE MULTI-MODEL BLEND THAT WAS
USED TO BUILD THE FORECAST STILL SUPPORTED LOW-END PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN SEVERAL PERIODS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST BOTH DUE TO
THE FRIDAY CLIPPER PASSAGE AND THEN THE PATTERN TRANSITION. HIGHS
WILL FALL BACK TOWARD NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
MVFR-IFR CIGS IN PLACE ALL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION KDIK AT
THE MOMENT. KDIK MAY ALSO TREND FROM SKC TO MVFR-IFR CIGS 13-15Z
THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TODAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AT KISN-KDIK IN THE MORNING...AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY
AFTERNOON KMOT AND KBIS...AND MID-LATE AFTERNOON AT KJMS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...NH/CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1211 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE
LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL PASS TO
THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON THURSDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SECOND CLIPPER ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRONT NOW EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. REPLACED POPS IN THE EAST
WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN INDIANA AND SHOULD
BE TO THE I-75 CORRIDOR BY 12Z. JUST A FEW SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON
RADAR BUT THE LATEST RUC AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE SHOWERS
POPPING UP AS THE FRONT ARRIVES. COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH 50 PERCENT OF LESS PRECIP CHANCES. A DRY SLOT
BEHIND THE LOW WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. DO NOT
EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR BUT A FEW BREAKS CERTAINLY ARE POSSIBLE.
PRETTY GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS
OCCURRING EARLY. GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE WAY TOO LOW SO HAVE TRIED TO
INTERPOLATE CURRENT TEMPS TO WHAT THEY WILL BE AT 12Z AND HAVE
USED THOSE NUMBERS FOR TODAYS HIGHS. CRITICAL THICKNESSES
EVENTUALLY GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW LATE IN THE DAY. BY THAT TIME
HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE VERY LITTLE PRECIP. EXPECT MOST OF THE
AREA TO BE COMPLETELY DRY FROM LATE MORNING ON. READINGS BY SUNSET
SHOULD IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BY 00Z 850 MB TEMPS OVER NW PA WILL BE ABOUT NEG 9 WITH TEMPS
DIPPING TO NEG 12 BY 12Z. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT
BUT NOTHING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. WE WILL ALSO START OUT WITH A
REALLY LOW INVERSION THIS EVENING SO THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE WILL
BE SLOW TO GET GOING TONIGHT. A SECONDARY TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
ROTATE ACROSS THE LATE TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE TO GET A FEW WEAK BANDS SET UP. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS BUT ACCUMS OF ONLY AN INCH OF TWO. AWAY FROM THE LAKE
EFFECT AREAS SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY OVERCAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TO MAKE SURE NO SNOW FROM LAKE MICHIGAN MAKES IT TO THE KTOL AREA
IN THE WNW FLOW. THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BY SUNSET THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL BE OVER EVER IN NW
PA. MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE AWAY FROM THE LAKE. THE MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT TRACKING A CLIPPER TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON
THURSDAY. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH OF THE LAKE BUT WILL HANG ON TO A SMALL
MENTION MAINLY IN NW PA IN CASE SOME LIGHT SNOW DOES DEVELOP. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER APPROACHING
FROM THE NW AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND LIFT
NORTH ON SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. MODELS LIFT THIS FEATURE NORTH FAIRLY QUICKLY BUT THAT WILL
BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE GET CLOSER AS WARM FRONTS CAN
STRUGGLE TO MOVE NORTH OF THE COLD LAKES. KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW 40S ON
SATURDAY MOST AREAS AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT.
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW
MORE DEGREES DESPITE AMPLE CLOUD COVER. NOT CLEAR AT THIS POINT IF
THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA OR STALL ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THIS DOES SET THE STAGE FOR A WARM
AND MOIST PATTERN INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THIS BOUNDARY
LINGERS NEAR THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PROVIDING A SUPPLY OF MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINDS GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
COLD AIR RUSHES INTO THE REGION BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR WITH HEIGHTS AROUND 1500FT THROUGH MOST
OF THE 24 TAF PERIOD. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LIFT OF CEILING TO
AROUND 2200FT LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE DECK FALLS AGAIN. PRECIP
IS LIMITED TO FLURRIES AT THIS TIME AND SHOULD NOT EFFECT
VISIBILITIES. BY TONIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING BY TO OUR
NORTH WHICH COULD TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MAINLY IMPACTING ERI.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY. NON VFR RETURNS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT FRONT. NON VFR
AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 25
KNOTS ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE AND 35 KNOT GALES ON THE EAST END
OF THE LAKE. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 11 FEET ON THE FAR EAST END OF
THE LAKE. WINDS WILL DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON THURSDAY AND PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE
EARLY FRIDAY. A RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ061-148-149-168-
169.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...DJB/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC/JAMISON
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1140 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE
LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL PASS TO
THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON THURSDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SECOND CLIPPER ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRONT JUST WEST OF AKRON CANTON AREA. FEW SHOWERS NEAR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BUT LITTLE ELSE. REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THE
WESTERN HALF...AND LOWERED POPS IN THE EAST TO 30 POP FOR 930
UPDATE.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN INDIANA AND SHOULD
BE TO THE I-75 CORRIDOR BY 12Z. JUST A FEW SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON
RADAR BUT THE LATEST RUC AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE SHOWERS
POPPING UP AS THE FRONT ARRIVES. COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH 50 PERCENT OF LESS PRECIP CHANCES. A DRY SLOT
BEHIND THE LOW WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. DO NOT
EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR BUT A FEW BREAKS CERTAINLY ARE POSSIBLE.
PRETTY GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS
OCCURRING EARLY. GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE WAY TOO LOW SO HAVE TRIED TO
INTERPOLATE CURRENT TEMPS TO WHAT THEY WILL BE AT 12Z AND HAVE
USED THOSE NUMBERS FOR TODAYS HIGHS. CRITICAL THICKNESSES
EVENTUALLY GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW LATE IN THE DAY. BY THAT TIME
HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE VERY LITTLE PRECIP. EXPECT MOST OF THE
AREA TO BE COMPLETELY DRY FROM LATE MORNING ON. READINGS BY SUNSET
SHOULD IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BY 00Z 850 MB TEMPS OVER NW PA WILL BE ABOUT NEG 9 WITH TEMPS
DIPPING TO NEG 12 BY 12Z. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT
BUT NOTHING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. WE WILL ALSO START OUT WITH A
REALLY LOW INVERSION THIS EVENING SO THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE WILL
BE SLOW TO GET GOING TONIGHT. A SECONDARY TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
ROTATE ACROSS THE LATE TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE TO GET A FEW WEAK BANDS SET UP. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS BUT ACCUMS OF ONLY AN INCH OF TWO. AWAY FROM THE LAKE
EFFECT AREAS SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY OVERCAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TO MAKE SURE NO SNOW FROM LAKE MICHIGAN MAKES IT TO THE KTOL AREA
IN THE WNW FLOW. THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BY SUNSET THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL BE OVER EVER IN NW
PA. MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE AWAY FROM THE LAKE. THE MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT TRACKING A CLIPPER TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON
THURSDAY. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH OF THE LAKE BUT WILL HANG ON TO A SMALL
MENTION MAINLY IN NW PA IN CASE SOME LIGHT SNOW DOES DEVELOP. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER APPROACHING
FROM THE NW AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND LIFT
NORTH ON SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. MODELS LIFT THIS FEATURE NORTH FAIRLY QUICKLY BUT THAT WILL
BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE GET CLOSER AS WARM FRONTS CAN
STRUGGLE TO MOVE NORTH OF THE COLD LAKES. KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW 40S ON
SATURDAY MOST AREAS AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT.
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW
MORE DEGREES DESPITE AMPLE CLOUD COVER. NOT CLEAR AT THIS POINT IF
THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA OR STALL ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THIS DOES SET THE STAGE FOR A WARM
AND MOIST PATTERN INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THIS BOUNDARY
LINGERS NEAR THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PROVIDING A SUPPLY OF MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WINDS GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
COLD AIR RUSHES INTO THE REGION BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR WITH HEIGHTS AROUND 1500FT THROUGH MOST
OF THE 24 TAF PERIOD. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LIFT OF CEILING TO
AROUND 2200FT LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE DECK FALLS AGAIN. PRECIP
IS LIMITED TO FLURRIES AT THIS TIME AND SHOULD NOT EFFECT
VISIBILITIES. BY TONIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING BY TO OUR
NORTH WHICH COULD TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MAINLY IMPACTING ERI.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY. NON VFR RETURNS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT FRONT. NON VFR
AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 25
KNOTS ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE AND 35 KNOT GALES ON THE EAST END
OF THE LAKE. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 11 FEET ON THE FAR EAST END OF
THE LAKE. WINDS WILL DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON THURSDAY AND PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE
EARLY FRIDAY. A RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ061-148-149-168-
169.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...DJB/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC/JAMISON
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
922 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE
LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL PASS TO
THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON THURSDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SECOND CLIPPER ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRONT JUST WEST OF AKRON CANTON AREA. FEW SHOWERS NEAR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BUT LITTLE ELSE. REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THE
WESTERN HALF...AND LOWERED POPS IN THE EAST TO 30 POP FOR 930
UPDATE.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN INDIANA AND SHOULD
BE TO THE I-75 CORRIDOR BY 12Z. JUST A FEW SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON
RADAR BUT THE LATEST RUC AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE SHOWERS
POPPING UP AS THE FRONT ARRIVES. COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH 50 PERCENT OF LESS PRECIP CHANCES. A DRY SLOT
BEHIND THE LOW WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. DO NOT
EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR BUT A FEW BREAKS CERTAINLY ARE POSSIBLE.
PRETTY GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS
OCCURRING EARLY. GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE WAY TOO LOW SO HAVE TRIED TO
INTERPOLATE CURRENT TEMPS TO WHAT THEY WILL BE AT 12Z AND HAVE
USED THOSE NUMBERS FOR TODAYS HIGHS. CRITICAL THICKNESSES
EVENTUALLY GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW LATE IN THE DAY. BY THAT TIME
HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE VERY LITTLE PRECIP. EXPECT MOST OF THE
AREA TO BE COMPLETELY DRY FROM LATE MORNING ON. READINGS BY SUNSET
SHOULD IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BY 00Z 850 MB TEMPS OVER NW PA WILL BE ABOUT NEG 9 WITH TEMPS
DIPPING TO NEG 12 BY 12Z. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT
BUT NOTHING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. WE WILL ALSO START OUT WITH A
REALLY LOW INVERSION THIS EVENING SO THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE WILL
BE SLOW TO GET GOING TONIGHT. A SECONDARY TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
ROTATE ACROSS THE LATE TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE TO GET A FEW WEAK BANDS SET UP. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS BUT ACCUMS OF ONLY AN INCH OF TWO. AWAY FROM THE LAKE
EFFECT AREAS SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY OVERCAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TO MAKE SURE NO SNOW FROM LAKE MICHIGAN MAKES IT TO THE KTOL AREA
IN THE WNW FLOW. THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BY SUNSET THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL BE OVER EVER IN NW
PA. MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE AWAY FROM THE LAKE. THE MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT TRACKING A CLIPPER TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON
THURSDAY. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH OF THE LAKE BUT WILL HANG ON TO A SMALL
MENTION MAINLY IN NW PA IN CASE SOME LIGHT SNOW DOES DEVELOP. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER APPROACHING
FROM THE NW AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND LIFT
NORTH ON SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. MODELS LIFT THIS FEATURE NORTH FAIRLY QUICKLY BUT THAT WILL
BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE GET CLOSER AS WARM FRONTS CAN
STRUGGLE TO MOVE NORTH OF THE COLD LAKES. KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW 40S ON
SATURDAY MOST AREAS AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT.
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW
MORE DEGREES DESPITE AMPLE CLOUD COVER. NOT CLEAR AT THIS POINT IF
THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA OR STALL ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THIS DOES SET THE STAGE FOR A WARM
AND MOIST PATTERN INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THIS BOUNDARY
LINGERS NEAR THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PROVIDING A SUPPLY OF MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING STRONG GUSTY
WINDS TO SEVERAL OF THE TERMINALS. LOCATIONS IN THE WEST AND ALONG
THE LAKESHORE MAY EXPERIENCE GUSTS OF 30-35 KNOTS AS WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...MAINLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD START TO LOSE THE GUSTINESS BY 22Z...EXCEPT
AT ERI WHERE BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THIS
MORNING. CEILINGS WILL BE MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...FLUCTUATING
NEAR 2K FEET. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ERI
OVERNIGHT...WITH CHANCES INCREASING AFTER 09Z.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY. NON VFR RETURNS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT FRONT. NON VFR
AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 25
KNOTS ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE AND 35 KNOT GALES ON THE EAST END
OF THE LAKE. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 11 FEET ON THE FAR EAST END OF
THE LAKE. WINDS WILL DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON THURSDAY AND PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE
EARLY FRIDAY. A RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ061-148-149-168-
169.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...DJB/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
703 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE
LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL PASS TO
THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON THURSDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SECOND CLIPPER ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN INDIANA AND SHOULD
BE TO THE I-75 CORRIDOR BY 12Z. JUST A FEW SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON
RADAR BUT THE LATEST RUC AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE SHOWERS
POPPING UP AS THE FRONT ARRIVES. COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH 50 PERCENT OF LESS PRECIP CHANCES. A DRY SLOT BEHIND
THE LOW WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT
SKIES TO CLEAR BUT A FEW BREAKS CERTAINLY ARE POSSIBLE. PRETTY
GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS OCCURRING
EARLY. GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE WAY TOO LOW SO HAVE TRIED TO
INTERPOLATE CURRENT TEMPS TO WHAT THEY WILL BE AT 12Z AND HAVE
USED THOSE NUMBERS FOR TODAYS HIGHS. CRITICAL THICKNESSES
EVENTUALLY GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW LATE IN THE DAY. BY THAT TIME
HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE VERY LITTLE PRECIP. EXPECT MOST OF THE
AREA TO BE COMPLETELY DRY FROM LATE MORNING ON. READINGS BY SUNSET
SHOULD IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BY 00Z 850 MB TEMPS OVER NW PA WILL BE ABOUT NEG 9 WITH TEMPS
DIPPING TO NEG 12 BY 12Z. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT
BUT NOTHING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. WE WILL ALSO START OUT WITH A
REALLY LOW INVERSION THIS EVENING SO THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE WILL
BE SLOW TO GET GOING TONIGHT. A SECONDARY TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
ROTATE ACROSS THE LATE TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE TO GET A FEW WEAK BANDS SET UP. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS BUT ACCUMS OF ONLY AN INCH OF TWO. AWAY FROM THE LAKE
EFFECT AREAS SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY OVERCAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TO MAKE SURE NO SNOW FROM LAKE MICHIGAN MAKES IT TO THE KTOL AREA
IN THE WNW FLOW. THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BY SUNSET THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL BE OVER EVER IN NW
PA. MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE AWAY FROM THE LAKE. THE MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT TRACKING A CLIPPER TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON
THURSDAY. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH OF THE LAKE BUT WILL HANG ON TO A SMALL
MENTION MAINLY IN NW PA IN CASE SOME LIGHT SNOW DOES DEVELOP. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER APPROACHING
FROM THE NW AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND LIFT
NORTH ON SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. MODELS LIFT THIS FEATURE NORTH FAIRLY QUICKLY BUT THAT WILL
BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE GET CLOSER AS WARM FRONTS CAN
STRUGGLE TO MOVE NORTH OF THE COLD LAKES. KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW 40S ON
SATURDAY MOST AREAS AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT.
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW
MORE DEGREES DESPITE AMPLE CLOUD COVER. NOT CLEAR AT THIS POINT IF
THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA OR STALL ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THIS DOES SET THE STAGE FOR A WARM
AND MOIST PATTERN INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THIS BOUNDARY
LINGERS NEAR THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PROVIDING A SUPPLY OF MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING STRONG GUSTY
WINDS TO SEVERAL OF THE TERMINALS. LOCATIONS IN THE WEST AND ALONG
THE LAKESHORE MAY EXPERIENCE GUSTS OF 30-35 KNOTS AS WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...MAINLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD START TO LOSE THE GUSTINESS BY 22Z...EXCEPT
AT ERI WHERE BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THIS
MORNING. CEILINGS WILL BE MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...FLUCTUATING
NEAR 2K FEET. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ERI
OVERNIGHT...WITH CHANCES INCREASING AFTER 09Z.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY. NON VFR RETURNS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT FRONT. NON VFR
AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 25
KNOTS ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE AND 35 KNOT GALES ON THE EAST END
OF THE LAKE. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 11 FEET ON THE FAR EAST END OF
THE LAKE. WINDS WILL DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON THURSDAY AND PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE
EARLY FRIDAY. A RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LEZ061-148-149-168-169.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
406 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE
LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL PASS TO
THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON THURSDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SECOND CLIPPER ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN INDIANA AND SHOULD
BE TO THE I-75 CORRIDOR BY 12Z. JUST A FEW SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON
RADAR BUT THE LATEST RUC AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE SHOWERS
POPPING UP AS THE FRONT ARRIVES. COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH 50 PERCENT OF LESS PRECIP CHANCES. A DRY SLOT BEHIND
THE LOW WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT
SKIES TO CLEAR BUT A FEW BREAKS CERTAINLY ARE POSSIBLE. PRETTY
GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS OCCURRING
EARLY. GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE WAY TOO LOW SO HAVE TRIED TO
INTERPOLATE CURRENT TEMPS TO WHAT THEY WILL BE AT 12Z AND HAVE
USED THOSE NUMBERS FOR TODAYS HIGHS. CRITICAL THICKNESSES
EVENTUALLY GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW LATE IN THE DAY. BY THAT TIME
HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE VERY LITTLE PRECIP. EXPECT MOST OF THE
AREA TO BE COMPLETELY DRY FROM LATE MORNING ON. READINGS BY SUNSET
SHOULD IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BY 00Z 850 MB TEMPS OVER NW PA WILL BE ABOUT NEG 9 WITH TEMPS
DIPPING TO NEG 12 BY 12Z. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT
BUT NOTHING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. WE WILL ALSO START OUT WITH A
REALLY LOW INVERSION THIS EVENING SO THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE WILL
BE SLOW TO GET GOING TONIGHT. A SECONDARY TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
ROTATE ACROSS THE LATE TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE TO GET A FEW WEAK BANDS SET UP. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS BUT ACCUMS OF ONLY AN INCH OF TWO. AWAY FROM THE LAKE
EFFECT AREAS SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY OVERCAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TO MAKE SURE NO SNOW FROM LAKE MICHIGAN MAKES IT TO THE KTOL AREA
IN THE WNW FLOW. THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BY SUNSET THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL BE OVER EVER IN NW
PA. MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE AWAY FROM THE LAKE. THE MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT TRACKING A CLIPPER TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON
THURSDAY. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH OF THE LAKE BUT WILL HANG ON TO A SMALL
MENTION MAINLY IN NW PA IN CASE SOME LIGHT SNOW DOES DEVELOP. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER APPROACHING
FROM THE NW AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND LIFT
NORTH ON SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. MODELS LIFT THIS FEATURE NORTH FAIRLY QUICKLY BUT THAT WILL
BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE GET CLOSER AS WARM FRONTS CAN
STRUGGLE TO MOVE NORTH OF THE COLD LAKES. KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW 40S ON
SATURDAY MOST AREAS AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT.
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW
MORE DEGREES DESPITE AMPLE CLOUD COVER. NOT CLEAR AT THIS POINT IF
THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA OR STALL ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THIS DOES SET THE STAGE FOR A WARM
AND MOIST PATTERN INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THIS BOUNDARY
LINGERS NEAR THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PROVIDING A SUPPLY OF MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS HAS CROSSED THE FORECAST AREA AND THERE
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CEILINGS WILL BE MAINLY MVFR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS NEAR AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT BUT SOME DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND I SUSPECT THAT THIS WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
AND DID NOT INCLUDE IFR CEILINGS IN THE TAF FORECASTS AT THIS
TIME. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... MAINLY ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. NON VFR
RETURNS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT
FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 25
KNOTS ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE AND 35 KNOT GALES ON THE EAST END
OF THE LAKE. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 11 FEET ON THE FAR EAST END OF
THE LAKE. WINDS WILL DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON THURSDAY AND PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE
EARLY FRIDAY. A RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LEZ061-148-149-168-169.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
450 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER A RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON...
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SEASONABLY COLDER AND AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN
ALLEGHENIES...AND GENERALLY DRY ELSEWHERE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL 88D LOOP AND SFC OBS SHOWS SOME PATCHY VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
DRIFTING NEWD...ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WAS PUSHING
EAST AND OFF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...NEAR THE I-99 CORRIDOR AT
1930Z. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...IS AN EXPANDING RIBBON OF LIGHT RAIN SEEN STREAKING TO
THE NE FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS AREA LIGHT RAIN WAS
BLOSSOMING IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING UVVEL AND LLVL CONVERGENCE
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC-850 MB FRONT AND RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 150 KT JET...WHOSE AXIS WAS LOCATED JUST TO THE NW OF
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AT MID AFTERNOON. 12Z NAM...15Z SREF AND THE
18Z HRRR ALL SHOW A FEW HUNDREDTHS...TO AS MUCH AS 0.10 OF AN INCH
OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES WHILE
LOCATIONS TO THE NW OF INTERSTATE 81 SEE LITTLE OR NOTHING FROM
THIS VERY WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES AT THE SFC AND JET ENERGY ALOFT.
THE RELATIVELY MILD SWLY WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPS
INTO THE LOW- MID 40S IN MANY LOCATION FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE THE BEST DOWNSLOPE
LLVL FLOW AND ADIABATIC WARMING RIGHT BEHIND THE CFRONT WILL BE
FROM KAOO TO KUNV WHERE TEMPS COULD BRIEFLY JUMP TO THE U40S TO
NEAR 50F IN THE 19-22Z PERIOD.
MEAN...925-850 MB WET BULB ZERO ISOTHERM /AND THE LOCATION OF THE
COLD FRONT/ ATTM EXTENDED FROM NEAR KBFD TO KPIT. THE LIGHT
RAIN/SHOWERS WILL BE CHANGING OVER TO FLURRIES AND SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AFTER THE CFRONTAL PASSAGE...THE GENERALLY QUITE SHALLOW
AND WARM STRATO CU WILL SUPPORT NOTHING MORE THAN SOME FLURRIES
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION TONIGHT.
SW TO WEST SFC WIND WILL QUICKLY FRESHEN NEAR AND IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...AND WILL GUST BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT /WEST/...AND THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
FURTHER TO THE EAST - ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
ACCOMPANYING THE GRADUAL DROP IN TEMPERATURES /AND WARM STRATUS
AND STRATOCU CLOUD LAYER CONTAINING MAINLY SUPERCOOLED WATER
DROPLETS/...COULD BE A BRIEF...FEW-HOUR PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
THIS EVENING ALONG THE FAVORED WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS BEFORE THE
COLD AIR DEEPENS ENOUGH AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF THE
LOWER LAKES. THE FZDZ IS A LOW PROB EVENT THOUGH. A MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION /LESS THAN 1 INCH/ IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK 12Z
WEDNESDAY OVER THE NW MTNS...AND PERHAPS A FRESH LIGHT COATING
OVER THE LAURELS.
LOW TEMPS EARLY WED WILL VARY FROM 23 OR 24F ACROSS THE WRN MTNS
/WHERE THE BREEZE AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP READINGS SEVERAL DEG
F OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS/...TO THE UPPER 20S
IN THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION LKLY FROM THE NW
ALLEGHENIES INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES
WED NGT AND BRINGS AN END TO THE LES ACTIVITY. WEDNESDAY/S HIGH
TEMPS SLIDE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY WITH WED NIGHT
LOWS BTWN 10-20F -- COLDEST READINGS IN THE SOUTH WHERE THE DEEPER
SNOWPACK WILL HANG TOUGH.
MODELS TRACK CLIPPER LOW NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TOWARD NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z FRIDAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLY COLDER W/NW FLOW
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT AND
OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN MTNS THUR NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTERN SYSTEM WILL NOT
PHASE WITH THE TROUGH AND THUS REMAIN FAR ENOUGH EAST TO PRECLUDE
ANY PRECIP REACHING BACK INTO THE LOWER SUSQ. BUT THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH WILL SPREAD GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS INTO NW HALF OF
CWA THROUGH LATE WEEK AS BRISK SW FLOW TURNS TO THE NW...OPENING
UP THE LAKES TO LIKELY IMPACT FAR NW SNOWBELT WITH A PERIOD OF
MORE INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BANDS LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
FAST ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGS A WEAK RIDGE THROUGH FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT...BUT THEN SERIES OF WEAKER WAVES SLIDE THROUGH THE
REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPS WARM UP A BIT...BRINGING IMPACTS
FROM GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW CEDING TO RAIN. HOWEVER THERE IS GREATER
MODEL DIVERGENCE SO CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW. HOWEVER THE
PATTER DOES SHOW ANOTHER FRONT POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE.
EASTERN AREAS STILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS.
FURTHER WEST...A GUSTY SW FLOW OF FRESH SPRING LIKE MILD
AIR.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE 21Z TAFS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
VFR TO MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST OF THE MVFR
CONDITIONS CONFINED TO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY /3-5SM VSBYS/...AND
THE MTNS OF NW PENN /DUE TO CIGS BETWEEN ABOUT 1300-2300 FT AGL/.
SOME AREAS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL STREAM QUICKLY NE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS SLICING THROUGH ALLEGHENIES
OF WRN PENN AT 1930Z.
THE BEST CHANCE OF A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF STEADIER LIGHT RAIN AND
MVFR VSBYS/CIGS WILL BE NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KTHV
TO KLNS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...AS A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT RIPPLES NE ALONG THE APPROACHING
CFRONT.
A BRIEF FEW HOUR PERIOD OF -FZDZ IS POSSIBLE /20-30 PERCENT
PROBABILITY/ AT KBFD AND KJST BEFORE THE AIR COOLS ENOUGH IN THE
CLOUD LAYER TO SUPPORT ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AND SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
LLWS CONFINED TO AIRFIELDS IN THE SUSQ VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/ WILL ALSO END IN THE WAKE OF THE CFROPA...THEN WSW TO
WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WED...AM LOW CIGS/-SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST PA.
FRI-SAT...OCNL SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE W MTNS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/RXR
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
254 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER A RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON...
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SEASONABLY COLDER AND AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN
ALLEGHENIES...AND GENERALLY DRY ELSEWHERE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL 88D LOOP AND SFC OBS SHOWS SOME PATCHY VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
DRIFTING NEWD...ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WAS PUSHING
EAST AND OFF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...NEAR THE I-99 CORRIDOR AT
1930Z. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...IS AN EXPANDING RIBBON OF LIGHT RAIN SEEN STREAKING TO
THE NE FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS AREA LIGHT RAIN WAS
BLOSSOMING IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING UVVEL AND LLVL CONVERGENCE
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC-850 MB FRONT AND RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 150 KT JET...WHOSE AXIS WAS LOCATED JUST TO THE NW OF
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AT MID AFTERNOON. 12Z NAM...15Z SREF AND THE
18Z HRRR ALL SHOW A FEW HUNDREDTHS...TO AS MUCH AS 0.10 OF AN INCH
OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES WHILE
LOCATIONS TO THE NW OF INTERSTATE 81 SEE LITTLE OR NOTHING FROM
THIS VERY WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES AT THE SFC AND JET ENERGY ALOFT.
THE RELATIVELY MILD SWLY WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPS
INTO THE LOW- MID 40S IN MANY LOCATION FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE THE BEST DOWNSLOPE
LLVL FLOW AND ADIABATIC WARMING RIGHT BEHIND THE CFRONT WILL BE
FROM KAOO TO KUNV WHERE TEMPS COULD BRIEFLY JUMP TO THE U40S TO
NEAR 50F IN THE 19-22Z PERIOD.
MEAN...925-850 MB WET BULB ZERO ISOTHERM /AND THE LOCATION OF THE
COLD FRONT/ ATTM EXTENDED FROM NEAR KBFD TO KPIT. THE LIGHT
RAIN/SHOWERS WILL BE CHANGING OVER TO FLURRIES AND SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AFTER THE CFRONTAL PASSAGE...THE GENERALLY QUITE SHALLOW
AND WARM STRATO CU WILL SUPPORT NOTHING MORE THAN SOME FLURRIES
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION TONIGHT.
SW TO WEST SFC WIND WILL QUICKLY FRESHEN NEAR AND IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...AND WILL GUST BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT /WEST/...AND THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
FURTHER TO THE EAST - ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
ACCOMPANYING THE GRADUAL DROP IN TEMPERATURES /AND WARM STRATUS
AND STRATOCU CLOUD LAYER CONTAINING MAINLY SUPERCOOLED WATER
DROPLETS/...COULD BE A BRIEF...FEW-HOUR PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
THIS EVENING ALONG THE FAVORED WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS BEFORE THE
COLD AIR DEEPENS ENOUGH AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF THE
LOWER LAKES. THE FZDZ IS A LOW PROB EVENT THOUGH. A MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION /LESS THAN 1 INCH/ IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK 12Z
WEDNESDAY OVER THE NW MTNS...AND PERHAPS A FRESH LIGHT COATING
OVER THE LAURELS.
LOW TEMPS EARLY WED WILL VARY FROM 23 OR 24F ACROSS THE WRN MTNS
/WHERE THE BREEZE AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP READINGS SEVERAL DEG
F OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS/...TO THE UPPER 20S
IN THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION LKLY FROM THE NW
ALLEGHENIES INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES
WED NGT AND BRINGS AN END TO THE LES ACTIVITY. WEDNESDAY/S HIGH
TEMPS SLIDE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY WITH WED NIGHT
LOWS BTWN 10-20F -- COLDEST READINGS IN THE SOUTH WHERE THE DEEPER
SNOWPACK WILL HANG TOUGH.
MODELS TRACK CLIPPER LOW NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TOWARD NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z FRIDAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLY COLDER W/NW FLOW
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT AND
OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN MTNS THUR NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTERN SYSTEM WILL NOT
PHASE WITH THE TROUGH AND THUS REMAIN FAR ENOUGH EAST TO PRECLUDE
ANY PRECIP REACHING BACK INTO THE LOWER SUSQ. BUT THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH WILL SPREAD GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS INTO NW HALF OF
CWA THROUGH LATE WEEK AS BRISK SW FLOW TURNS TO THE NW...OPENING
UP THE LAKES TO LIKELY IMPACT FAR NW SNOWBELT WITH A PERIOD OF
MORE INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BANDS LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
FAST ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGS A WEAK RIDGE THROUGH FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT...BUT THEN SERIES OF WEAKER WAVES SLIDE THROUGH THE
REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPS WARM UP A BIT...BRINGING IMPACTS
FROM GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW CEDING TO RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR TO MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MOST OF THE MVFR CONDITIONS CONFINED TO THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY /3-5SM VSBYS/...AND THE MTNS OF NW PENN /DUE TO CIGS
BETWEEN ABOUT 1300-2300 FT AGL/.
SOME AREAS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL STREAM QUICKLY NE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS SLICING THROUGH ALLEGHENIES
OF WRN PENN AT 1930Z.
THE BEST CHANCE OF A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF STEADIER LIGHT RAIN AND
MVFR VSBYS/CIGS WILL BE NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KTHV
TO KLNS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...AS A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT RIPPLES NE ALONG THE APPROACHING
CFRONT.
A BRIEF FEW HOUR PERIOD OF -FZDZ IS POSSIBLE /20-30 PERCENT
PROBABILITY/ AT KBFD AND KJST BEFORE THE AIR COOLS ENOUGH IN THE
CLOUD LAYER TO SUPPORT ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AND SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
LLWS CONFINED TO AIRFIELDS IN THE SUSQ VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/ WILL ALSO END IN THE WAKE OF THE CFROPA...THEN WSW TO
WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WED...AM LOW CIGS/-SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST PA.
FRI-SAT...OCNL SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE W MTNS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
654 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN WITH POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. AFTER A RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND SEASONABLY COLDER AND AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.
THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1020Z...RADAR TRENDS SHOW VERY LIGHT RETURNS CONTINUING TO PUSH
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-LWR SUSQ VALLEY. TEMPERATURES DROPPED
PRECIPITOUSLY EARLIER UNDER CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND FRESH DEEP
SNOWPACK. WITH RISK OF VERY LIGHT/SPOTTY ICE GLAZE /MAINLY TRACE
AMOUNTS/ LOOMING ON THE HORIZON JUST TO THE WEST...HAVE EXPANDED
FZRA ADVY INTO ALL SE ZONES. HAVE ALSO CANCELLED THE ADVY FOR THE
LAURELS AS 10Z MESO OBS SHOW TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING NOW.
PREVIOUS...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN PA INTO MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SITES ALONG AND WEST OF RT219 HAVE BEEN STEADILY WARMING OVERNIGHT
RUNNING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. A RELATIVELY
MILD SW WIND HAS PROPELLED READINGS INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS AT 08Z. MAIN CONCERN REMAINS THE RISK FOR LIGHT
ICE GLAZE JUST EAST OF ALLEGHENY FRONT ACROSS THE INTERIOR CENTRAL
RIDGES AND PERHAPS INTO PORTIONS OF THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. THE
LATEST HRRR HOLDS ONTO LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA
THRU 12Z.
PA DOT REPORTED EARLIER THAT ROAD TEMPS ARE AROUND 30F. QUESTION
IS IF WAA PRECIP CAN SURVIVE DOWNSLOPING EAST THE ALLEGHENIES
INTO DRIER AIR. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT ICING
IS LOW...SPOTTY TRACE AMOUNTS UP TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
OF ICE GLAZE IS LIKELY. THIS WILL BE OCCURRING INTO THE PEAK
MORNING COMMUTE AND IT ONLY TAKES A VERY SMALL AMOUNT OF ICE GLAZE
TO CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES REMAIN HIGHLY VARIABLE
RANGING FROM 41F AT K2G9 TO 9F AT THV. MANY SITES THAT DECOUPLED
OVER THE MID/LWR SUSQ WITH FRESH SNOWPACK EXPERIENCED RAPID TEMP
DROPS INTO THE LOW-MID TEENS OR EVEN UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. THIS
TREND SHOULD REVERSE BY 10Z. EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING
BY LATE MORNING AND END THE LIGHT FZRA THREAT. THE RELATIVELY MILD
SWLY WIND SHOULD BOOST TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S THIS
AFTERNOON.
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE HIGHER CLOUDS PEELING OFF BY THE AFTERNOON.
THIS IS EVIDENT VIA THE 11-3.9U IR SATL LOOP WHICH ONLY SHOWS
LOWER CLOUDS TO THE WEST OF THE PA/WV/OH BORDER. THEREFORE ADDED
DZ TO LIGHT RAIN CHANCE FOR LATER TODAY. PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT
THIS EVENING WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WEST WINDS AND GRADUAL
DROP IN TEMPERATURES...WITH A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FAVORED WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS BEFORE SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF THE LOWER LAKES. A MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION
/LESS THAN 1 INCH/ IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK 12Z WEDNESDAY OVER THE
NW MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION LKLY FROM THE NW
ALLEGHENIES INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES
WED NGT AND BRINGS AN END TO THE LES ACTIVITY. D2 MAXES WILL DROP
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY WITH LOWS BTWN 10-20F -- COLDEST
READINGS IN THE SOUTH.
MODELS TRACK CLIPPER LOW NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TOWARD NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z FRIDAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLY COLDER W/NW FLOW
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT AND
OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN MTNS THUR NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTERN SYSTEM WILL NOT
PHASE WITH THE TROUGH AND THUS REMAIN FAR ENOUGH EAST TO PRECLUDE
ANY PRECIP REACHING BACK INTO THE LOWER SUSQ. BUT THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH WILL SPREAD GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS INTO NW HALF OF
CWA THROUGH LATE WEEK AS BRISK SW FLOW TURNS TO THE NW...OPENING
UP THE LAKES TO LIKELY IMPACT FAR NW SNOWBELT WITH A PERIOD OF
MORE INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BANDS LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
FAST ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGS A WEAK RIDGE THROUGH FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT...BUT THEN SERIES OF WEAKER WAVES SLIDE THROUGH THE
REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPS WARM UP A BIT...BRINGING IMPACTS
FROM GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW CEDING TO RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD LOWERING CIGS/SCT SHOWERS
INTO THE AREA EARLY TUES MORNING ALONG WITH THE CHC FOR JUST A BIT
OF FZRA AT ALL AIRFIELDS THORUGH MID MORNING. IN ADDITION...A
CORE OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT...CREATING LLWS
CONDS THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS THE EAST. OTHER AREA OF CONCERN
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE STATE...WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN MCLEAR AND WIND LIGHT.
LATEST SREF PROBS AND DOWNSCALED NAM SUGGEST VIS REDUCTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY TUE AM AT KMDT/KLNS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTN...ENDING THE THREAT OF LINGERING
SHOWERS/LLWS OVER MOST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS W/REGARD TO HOW FAST FRONT AND ANY ASSOC
FOG/SHOWERS CLEAR THE KMDT/KLNS AREA.
POST-FRONTAL LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE W MTNS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE IFR CIGS AND PATCHY DZ AT KBFD/KJST 12Z-18Z...WITH SOME
MODEST IMPROVEMENT LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES
FROM THE WEST.
OUTLOOK...
WED...AM LOW CIGS/-SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST PA.
FRI-SAT...OCNL SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE W MTNS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005-
006-010>012-017>019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
524 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN WITH POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. AFTER A RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND SEASONABLY COLDER AND AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.
THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1020Z...RADAR TRENDS SHOW VERY LIGHT RETURNS CONTINUING TO PUSH
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-LWR SUSQ VALLEY. TEMPERATURES DROPPED
PRECIPITOUSLY EARLIER UNDER CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND FRESH DEEP
SNOWPACK. WITH RISK OF VERY LIGHT/SPOTTY ICE GLAZE /MAINLY TRACE
AMOUNTS/ LOOMING ON THE HORIZON JUST TO THE WEST...HAVE EXPANDED
FZRA ADVY INTO ALL SE ZONES. HAVE ALSO CANCELLED THE ADVY FOR THE
LAURELS AS 10Z MESO OBS SHOW TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING NOW.
PREVIOUS...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN PA INTO MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SITES ALONG AND WEST OF RT219 HAVE BEEN STEADILY WARMING OVERNIGHT
RUNNING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. A RELATIVELY
MILD SW WIND HAS PROPELLED READINGS INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS AT 08Z. MAIN CONCERN REMAINS THE RISK FOR LIGHT
ICE GLAZE JUST EAST OF ALLEGHENY FRONT ACROSS THE INTERIOR CENTRAL
RIDGES AND PERHAPS INTO PORTIONS OF THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. THE
LATEST HRRR HOLDS ONTO LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA
THRU 12Z.
PA DOT REPORTED EARLIER THAT ROAD TEMPS ARE AROUND 30F. QUESTION
IS IF WAA PRECIP CAN SURVIVE DOWNSLOPING EAST THE ALLEGHENIES
INTO DRIER AIR. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT ICING
IS LOW...SPOTTY TRACE AMOUNTS UP TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
OF ICE GLAZE IS LIKELY. THIS WILL BE OCCURRING INTO THE PEAK
MORNING COMMUTE AND IT ONLY TAKES A VERY SMALL AMOUNT OF ICE GLAZE
TO CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES REMAIN HIGHLY VARIABLE
RANGING FROM 41F AT K2G9 TO 9F AT THV. MANY SITES THAT DECOUPLED
OVER THE MID/LWR SUSQ WITH FRESH SNOWPACK EXPERIENCED RAPID TEMP
DROPS INTO THE LOW-MID TEENS OR EVEN UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. THIS
TREND SHOULD REVERSE BY 10Z. EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING
BY LATE MORNING AND END THE LIGHT FZRA THREAT. THE RELATIVELY MILD
SWLY WIND SHOULD BOOST TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S THIS
AFTERNOON.
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE HIGHER CLOUDS PEELING OFF BY THE AFTERNOON.
THIS IS EVIDENT VIA THE 11-3.9U IR SATL LOOP WHICH ONLY SHOWS
LOWER CLOUDS TO THE WEST OF THE PA/WV/OH BORDER. THEREFORE ADDED
DZ TO LIGHT RAIN CHANCE FOR LATER TODAY. PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT
THIS EVENING WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WEST WINDS AND GRADUAL
DROP IN TEMPERATURES...WITH A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FAVORED WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS BEFORE SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF THE LOWER LAKES. A MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION
/LESS THAN 1 INCH/ IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK 12Z WEDNESDAY OVER THE
NW MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION LKLY FROM THE NW
ALLEGHENIES INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES
WED NGT AND BRINGS AN END TO THE LES ACTIVITY. D2 MAXES WILL DROP
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY WITH LOWS BTWN 10-20F -- COLDEST
READINGS IN THE SOUTH.
MODELS TRACK CLIPPER LOW NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TOWARD NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z FRIDAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLY COLDER W/NW FLOW
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT AND
OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN MTNS THUR NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTERN SYSTEM WILL NOT
PHASE WITH THE TROUGH AND THUS REMAIN FAR ENOUGH EAST TO PRECLUDE
ANY PRECIP REACHING BACK INTO THE LOWER SUSQ. BUT THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH WILL SPREAD GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS INTO NW HALF OF
CWA THROUGH LATE WEEK AS BRISK SW FLOW TURNS TO THE NW...OPENING
UP THE LAKES TO LIKELY IMPACT FAR NW SNOWBELT WITH A PERIOD OF
MORE INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BANDS LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
FAST ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGS A WEAK RIDGE THROUGH FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT...BUT THEN SERIES OF WEAKER WAVES SLIDE THROUGH THE
REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPS WARM UP A BIT...BRINGING IMPACTS
FROM GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW CEDING TO RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDS AND LIGHT SOUTH WIND ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE
AIRSPACE.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD LOWERING CIGS/SCT SHOWERS INTO
THE AREA EARLY TUES MORNING ALONG WITH THE CHC FOR JUST A BIT OF
FZRA OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. IN ADDITION...A
CORE OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT...CREATING LLWS
CONDS AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST PA AND LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. OTHER AREA OF CONCERN
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE STATE...WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN MCLEAR AND WIND LIGHT.
LATEST SREF PROBS AND DOWNSCALED NAM SUGGEST VIS REDUCTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY TUE AM AT KMDT/KLNS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PA ON
TUESDAY...ENDING THE THREAT OF LINGERING SHOWERS/LLWS OVER MOST OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS W/REGARD TO
HOW FAST FRONT AND ANY ASSOC FOG/SHOWERS CLEAR THE KMDT/KLNS AREA.
POST-FRONTAL LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE W MTNS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE IFR CIGS AND PATCHY DZ AT KBFD/KJST 12Z-18Z...WITH SOME
MODEST IMPROVEMENT LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES
FROM THE WEST.
OUTLOOK...
WED...AM LOW CIGS/-SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST PA.
FRI-SAT...OCNL SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE W MTNS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005-
006-010>012-017>019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
402 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN WITH POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. AFTER A RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND SEASONABLY COLDER AND AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.
THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN PA INTO MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SITES ALONG AND WEST OF RT219 HAVE BEEN STEADILY WARMING OVERNIGHT
RUNNING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. A RELATIVELY
MILD SW WIND HAS PROPELLED READINGS INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS AT 08Z. MAIN CONCERN REMAINS THE RISK FOR LIGHT
ICE GLAZE JUST EAST OF ALLEGHENY FRONT ACROSS THE INTERIOR CENTRAL
RIDGES AND PERHAPS INTO PORTIONS OF THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. THE
LATEST HRRR HOLDS ONTO LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA
THRU 12Z.
PA DOT REPORTED EARLIER THAT ROAD TEMPS ARE AROUND 30F. QUESTION
IS IF WAA PRECIP CAN SURVIVE DOWNSLOPING EAST THE ALLEGHENIES
INTO DRIER AIR. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT ICING
IS LOW...SPOTTY TRACE AMOUNTS UP TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
OF ICE GLAZE IS LIKELY. THIS WILL BE OCCURRING INTO THE PEAK
MORNING COMMUTE AND IT ONLY TAKES A VERY SMALL AMOUNT OF ICE GLAZE
TO CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES REMAIN HIGHLY VARIABLE
RANGING FROM 41F AT K2G9 TO 9F AT THV. MANY SITES THAT DECOUPLED
OVER THE MID/LWR SUSQ WITH FRESH SNOWPACK EXPERIENCED RAPID TEMP
DROPS INTO THE LOW-MID TEENS OR EVEN UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. THIS
TREND SHOULD REVERSE BY 10Z. EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING
BY LATE MORNING AND END THE LIGHT FZRA THREAT. THE RELATIVELY MILD
SWLY WIND SHOULD BOOST TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S THIS
AFTERNOON.
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE HIGHER CLOUDS PEELING OFF BY THE AFTERNOON.
THIS IS EVIDENT VIA THE 11-3.9U IR SATL LOOP WHICH ONLY SHOWS
LOWER CLOUDS TO THE WEST OF THE PA/WV/OH BORDER. THEREFORE ADDED
DZ TO LIGHT RAIN CHANCE FOR LATER TODAY. PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT
THIS EVENING WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WEST WINDS AND GRADUAL
DROP IN TEMPERATURES...WITH A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FAVORED WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS BEFORE SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF THE LOWER LAKES. A MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION
/LESS THAN 1 INCH/ IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK 12Z WEDNESDAY OVER THE
NW MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION LKLY FROM THE NW
ALLEGHENIES INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES
WED NGT AND BRINGS AN END TO THE LES ACTIVITY. D2 MAXES WILL DROP
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY WITH LOWS BTWN 10-20F -- COLDEST
READINGS IN THE SOUTH.
MODELS TRACK CLIPPER LOW NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TOWARD NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z FRIDAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLY COLDER W/NW FLOW
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT AND
OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN MTNS THUR NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTERN SYSTEM WILL NOT
PHASE WITH THE TROUGH AND THUS REMAIN FAR ENOUGH EAST TO PRECLUDE
ANY PRECIP REACHING BACK INTO THE LOWER SUSQ. BUT THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH WILL SPREAD GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS INTO NW HALF OF
CWA THROUGH LATE WEEK AS BRISK SW FLOW TURNS TO THE NW...OPENING
UP THE LAKES TO LIKELY IMPACT FAR NW SNOWBELT WITH A PERIOD OF
MORE INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BANDS LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
FAST ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGS A WEAK RIDGE THROUGH FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT...BUT THEN SERIES OF WEAKER WAVES SLIDE THROUGH THE
REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPS WARM UP A BIT...BRINGING IMPACTS
FROM GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW CEDING TO RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDS AND LIGHT SOUTH WIND ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE
AIRSPACE.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD LOWERING CIGS/SCT SHOWERS INTO
THE AREA EARLY TUES MORNING ALONG WITH THE CHC FOR JUST A BIT OF
FZRA OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. IN ADDITION...A
CORE OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT...CREATING LLWS
CONDS AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST PA AND LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. OTHER AREA OF CONCERN
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE STATE...WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN MCLEAR AND WIND LIGHT.
LATEST SREF PROBS AND DOWNSCALED NAM SUGGEST VIS REDUCTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY TUE AM AT KMDT/KLNS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PA ON
TUESDAY...ENDING THE THREAT OF LINGERING SHOWERS/LLWS OVER MOST OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS W/REGARD TO
HOW FAST FRONT AND ANY ASSOC FOG/SHOWERS CLEAR THE KMDT/KLNS AREA.
POST-FRONTAL LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE W MTNS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE IFR CIGS AND PATCHY DZ AT KBFD/KJST 12Z-18Z...WITH SOME
MODEST IMPROVEMENT LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES
FROM THE WEST.
OUTLOOK...
WED...AM LOW CIGS/-SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST PA.
FRI-SAT...OCNL SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE W MTNS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005-
006-010>012-017>019-024>026-033>036-045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1124 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WITH LIGHT SHWRS DEVELOPING/MOVING IN SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...
AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SOLUTION...BACKED OFF POPS
THRU MID EVENING HRS W TO E ACROSS THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS. ALSO...
BELIEVE FOR LOCATIONS AHEAD OF EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION TUE MORNING...JUST
E OF I-65...THAT TEMPS AROUND THIS AREA AND FOR LOCATIONS TO THE E...THAT
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...
MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THIS REASONING GOES WELL WITH CURRENT LAMP
GUIDANCE VALUES ALSO. ALSO TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITION...
AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS BY 12Z WITH
SCT SHRA. BNA AND CKV MAY HAVE A PERIOD OF IFR WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BETWEEN 07Z- 15Z...THEN CLIMB BACK TO MVFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. CSV WILL DROP TO IFR BY DAYBREAK...AND WILL
LIKELY HOLD IFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SHRA.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........13
LONG TERM..................31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1122 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
.AVIATION...
KEWX AND KDFX RADARS ARE SHOWING SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION OVER THE HILL COUNTRY...WITH SUFFICIENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES. THUS...WILL HAVE TO INCLUDE SOME THUNDER IN THE KSAT AND
KSSF TERMINALS EARLY IN THE FORECAST...WHERE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
THUNDER ARE. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE OUT THUNDER AT KDRT (NOT A LOT OF
STRIKES OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS) AND KAUS (A BIT FARTHER NORTH) BUT
DID MENTION RAIN (TEMPOS WITH VCSH). SHOULD SEE MOST OF THE
CONVECTION TAPER OFF BY EARLY EVENING...AND WILL NOT MENTION RAIN
AFTER 27/01Z. CIGS WILL BE VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING (MVFR CIGS OR NEAR MVFR WITH TSRA/SHRA)...WITH
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CIGS TOWARD 27/12Z AS THE UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO
MOVE FARTHER SOUTH AND ALLOWS DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE TERMINAL
AREAS. GUSTY NNE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN UP FOR A WHILE
(GUSTS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING)...WITH WINDS REMAINING AOA 11
KNOTS UNTIL LATE IN THE KAUS AND KSAT TERMINALS AS THE RIDGE BEGINS
TO SETTLE INTO THE RIO GRANDE AREA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX/
UPDATE...
HAVE INCREASED POPS LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE DEL RIO AREA
NORTHWARD TOWARDS CROCKETT AND SUTTON COUNTIES WITH AN AREA OF
SHOWERS PUSHING THROUGH. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
ALSO NOTED WITHIN THE PAST HOUR SO HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER
ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE WE ARE STARTING SEE BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WITH INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE
MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. NAM-12 SHOWS A PRETTY GOOD AREA OF -2 TO -3C
SHOWALTER INDEX ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER WITH TOTAL TOTALS AROUND
55C...MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER HERE AS WELL. 12Z DEL RIO SOUNDING
SHOWED -20C AT 500MB SO A LOT OF THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN BY
COLD POOL INTERACTION WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND PASSING
SHORTWAVES. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME SMALL PEA
SIZE HAIL/GRAUPEL MAY FALL WITHIN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS BUT NOT
ENTIRELY CONFIDENT TO ADD ANY ENHANCED WORDING INTO THE GRIDS AT
THIS TIME. FINALLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER NORTHWESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY THIS EVENING
BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THOUGH.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016/
AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREA SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE LATE THIS EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS
OF THE COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
NEAR TEXAS COAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON TODAY AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST TO 50 MILES INLAND TOWARDS LAVACA AND DEWITT COUNTIES ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE AREA. A
SHARP 20F DEWPOINT GRADIENT IS NOTED BETWEEN GONZALES AND
VICTORIA AS OF 3AM. THIS FRONT SHOULD STALL THROUGH THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEPER NORTHWESTERN
MOMENTUM. PER WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS, A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER NEW MEXICO INTO NORTH MEXICO.
THIS FEATURE WILL AID IN MID-LEVEL INCREASED DIVERGENCE THROUGH
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE AREA BEING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, ENOUGH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN A VERY WEAK ELEVATED UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISO/SCT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. UPDRAFTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ROBUST AND THUNDER IS
NOT EXPECTED GIVEN THE VERY POOR LAPSE RATES IN THE H7-H5 LAYER
ABOVE THE STRONG INVERSION. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN
PLACED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAINS WHERE THE UPGLIDE
AND MOISTURE WILL BE MORE ENHANCED. ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HIGH WITH MAX TOTALS IN SCATTERED LOCATIONS BETWEEN
ONE TENTH AND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE
LESS. STRONGER NORTHERLY MOMENTUM WILL ENSUE TONIGHT WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE TROUGH AND ISENTROPIC DOWNSLOPING WILL COMMENCE -
THUS ENDING THE RAIN CHANCES BY LATE EVENING.
DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH AND WEST WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS
PWATS DROP TO 0.3" OR BELOW ON WEDNESDAY. MORE SUN IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOUT 5 F DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH ONE COLD
MORNING EXPECTED THURSDAY THAT WILL BE THEN FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WARM UP TO NORMAL AND THEN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REACH NEAR 80 DEGREES BY
SUNDAY WITH AMPLE SUN LIKELY. THE NEXT RAIN CHANCE MAY NOT COME
UNTIL NEXT TUESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THE NEXT WEEK
WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
AND LOWER 30S EVERYWHERE ELSE. SEVERAL MOS GUIDANCE VALUES
SUGGESTED LOWER VALUES VS. ORIGINAL BLEND GUIDANCE AND FOLLOWED
SUIT BY TRIMMING 2F DEGREES OFF. DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER
20S AND WITH NEAR CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS - THIS WOULD LIKELY
SET THE STAGE FOR A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOL OFF THAT WOULD OVER
ACHIEVE VS. WHAT RAW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. WITH SUCH DRY AIR
IN PLACE, LARGE DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE THE NORM BY LATE WEEK AS
HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 60S THURSDAY AFTN THEN 70S FRI/SAT. BY
SUNDAY...H925 TEMPS WILL REACH 18-20C THAT WILL SUPPORT SURFACE
VALUES CLOSE TO 80F DEGREES. DESPITE A POSSIBLE TROUGH PASSAGE
SATURDAY, MOISTURE APPEARS TOO LOW FOR ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND WITH GENERAL ZONAL FLOW NOTED
OTHERWISE. IT IS NOT TILL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN A LARGER TROUGH
TAKES FORM OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THEN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF AGREE THAT A FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD OCCUR
LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME-FRAME WITH LOW-END RAIN OR POSSIBLY EVEN
THUNDER CHANCES. HAVE ONLY PLACE 20% AT THIS PARTICULAR POINT WITH
A GENERALLY QUIET WEEK AHEAD. LONGER RANGE MODEL SUITE DOES
INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING SUBSTANTIALLY BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK HOWEVER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 55 37 57 34 66 / 20 10 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 55 36 56 29 65 / 20 10 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 55 37 58 31 66 / 20 10 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 53 33 55 31 65 / 20 10 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 57 38 60 32 68 / 100 10 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 53 35 54 30 65 / 20 10 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 56 36 59 29 67 / 50 10 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 54 37 56 31 65 / 20 10 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 55 39 56 31 64 / 50 20 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 55 38 57 33 66 / 20 10 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 56 38 58 32 67 / 20 20 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...99
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
818 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
.UPDATE...
SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS A LITTLE AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. HAVE
BROUGHT HIGHER POPS...THOUGH ONLY LOW END CHANCE TO THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE
REESTABLISHED TRENDS TO THE TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS AND WINDS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. FINALLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER NORTHWESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY
THIS EVENING BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED THOUGH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016/
AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREA SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE LATE THIS EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS
OF THE COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
NEAR TEXAS COAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON TODAY AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST TO 50 MILES INLAND TOWARDS LAVACA AND DEWITT COUNTIES ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE AREA. A
SHARP 20F DEWPOINT GRADIENT IS NOTED BETWEEN GONZALES AND
VICTORIA AS OF 3AM. THIS FRONT SHOULD STALL THROUGH THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEPER NORTHWESTERN
MOMENTUM. PER WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS, A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER NEW MEXICO INTO NORTH MEXICO.
THIS FEATURE WILL AID IN MID-LEVEL INCREASED DIVERGENCE THROUGH
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE AREA BEING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, ENOUGH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN A VERY WEAK ELEVATED UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISO/SCT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. UPDRAFTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ROBUST AND THUNDER IS
NOT EXPECTED GIVEN THE VERY POOR LAPSE RATES IN THE H7-H5 LAYER
ABOVE THE STRONG INVERSION. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN
PLACED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAINS WHERE THE UPGLIDE
AND MOISTURE WILL BE MORE ENHANCED. ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HIGH WITH MAX TOTALS IN SCATTERED LOCATIONS BETWEEN
ONE TENTH AND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE
LESS. STRONGER NORTHERLY MOMENTUM WILL ENSUE TONIGHT WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE TROUGH AND ISENTROPIC DOWNSLOPING WILL COMMENCE -
THUS ENDING THE RAIN CHANCES BY LATE EVENING.
DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH AND WEST WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS
PWATS DROP TO 0.3" OR BELOW ON WEDNESDAY. MORE SUN IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOUT 5 F DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH ONE COLD
MORNING EXPECTED THURSDAY THAT WILL BE THEN FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WARM UP TO NORMAL AND THEN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REACH NEAR 80 DEGREES BY
SUNDAY WITH AMPLE SUN LIKELY. THE NEXT RAIN CHANCE MAY NOT COME
UNTIL NEXT TUESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THE NEXT WEEK
WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
AND LOWER 30S EVERYWHERE ELSE. SEVERAL MOS GUIDANCE VALUES
SUGGESTED LOWER VALUES VS. ORIGINAL BLEND GUIDANCE AND FOLLOWED
SUIT BY TRIMMING 2F DEGREES OFF. DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER
20S AND WITH NEAR CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS - THIS WOULD LIKELY
SET THE STAGE FOR A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOL OFF THAT WOULD OVER
ACHIEVE VS. WHAT RAW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. WITH SUCH DRY AIR
IN PLACE, LARGE DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE THE NORM BY LATE WEEK AS
HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 60S THURSDAY AFTN THEN 70S FRI/SAT. BY
SUNDAY...H925 TEMPS WILL REACH 18-20C THAT WILL SUPPORT SURFACE
VALUES CLOSE TO 80F DEGREES. DESPITE A POSSIBLE TROUGH PASSAGE
SATURDAY, MOISTURE APPEARS TOO LOW FOR ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND WITH GENERAL ZONAL FLOW NOTED
OTHERWISE. IT IS NOT TILL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN A LARGER TROUGH
TAKES FORM OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THEN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF AGREE THAT A FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD OCCUR
LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME-FRAME WITH LOW-END RAIN OR POSSIBLY EVEN
THUNDER CHANCES. HAVE ONLY PLACE 20% AT THIS PARTICULAR POINT WITH
A GENERALLY QUIET WEEK AHEAD. LONGER RANGE MODEL SUITE DOES
INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING SUBSTANTIALLY BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK HOWEVER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 55 37 57 34 66 / 20 10 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 55 36 56 29 65 / 20 10 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 55 37 58 31 66 / 20 10 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 53 33 55 31 65 / 10 10 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 57 38 60 32 68 / 30 20 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 53 35 54 30 65 / 10 10 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 56 36 59 29 67 / 20 10 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 54 37 56 31 65 / 20 10 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 55 39 56 31 64 / 40 20 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 55 38 57 33 66 / 20 10 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 56 38 58 32 67 / 30 20 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
544 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREA SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE LATE THIS EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS
OF THE COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
NEAR TEXAS COAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON TODAY AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST TO 50 MILES INLAND TOWARDS LAVACA AND DEWITT COUNTIES ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE AREA. A
SHARP 20F DEWPOINT GRADIENT IS NOTED BETWEEN GONZALES AND
VICTORIA AS OF 3AM. THIS FRONT SHOULD STALL THROUGH THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEPER NORTHWESTERN
MOMENTUM. PER WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS, A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER NEW MEXICO INTO NORTH MEXICO.
THIS FEATURE WILL AID IN MID-LEVEL INCREASED DIVERGENCE THROUGH
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE AREA BEING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, ENOUGH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN A VERY WEAK ELEVATED UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISO/SCT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. UPDRAFTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ROBUST AND THUNDER IS
NOT EXPECTED GIVEN THE VERY POOR LAPSE RATES IN THE H7-H5 LAYER
ABOVE THE STRONG INVERSION. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN
PLACED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAINS WHERE THE UPGLIDE
AND MOISTURE WILL BE MORE ENHANCED. ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HIGH WITH MAX TOTALS IN SCATTERED LOCATIONS BETWEEN
ONE TENTH AND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE
LESS. STRONGER NORTHERLY MOMENTUM WILL ENSUE TONIGHT WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE TROUGH AND ISENTROPIC DOWNSLOPING WILL COMMENCE -
THUS ENDING THE RAIN CHANCES BY LATE EVENING.
DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH AND WEST WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS
PWATS DROP TO 0.3" OR BELOW ON WEDNESDAY. MORE SUN IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOUT 5 F DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH ONE COLD
MORNING EXPECTED THURSDAY THAT WILL BE THEN FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WARM UP TO NORMAL AND THEN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REACH NEAR 80 DEGREES BY
SUNDAY WITH AMPLE SUN LIKELY. THE NEXT RAIN CHANCE MAY NOT COME
UNTIL NEXT TUESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THE NEXT WEEK
WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
AND LOWER 30S EVERYWHERE ELSE. SEVERAL MOS GUIDANCE VALUES
SUGGESTED LOWER VALUES VS. ORIGINAL BLEND GUIDANCE AND FOLLOWED
SUIT BY TRIMMING 2F DEGREES OFF. DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER
20S AND WITH NEAR CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS - THIS WOULD LIKELY
SET THE STAGE FOR A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOL OFF THAT WOULD OVER
ACHIEVE VS. WHAT RAW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. WITH SUCH DRY AIR
IN PLACE, LARGE DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE THE NORM BY LATE WEEK AS
HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 60S THURSDAY AFTN THEN 70S FRI/SAT. BY
SUNDAY...H925 TEMPS WILL REACH 18-20C THAT WILL SUPPORT SURFACE
VALUES CLOSE TO 80F DEGREES. DESPITE A POSSIBLE TROUGH PASSAGE
SATURDAY, MOISTURE APPEARS TOO LOW FOR ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND WITH GENERAL ZONAL FLOW NOTED
OTHERWISE. IT IS NOT TILL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN A LARGER TROUGH
TAKES FORM OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THEN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF AGREE THAT A FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD OCCUR
LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME-FRAME WITH LOW-END RAIN OR POSSIBLY EVEN
THUNDER CHANCES. HAVE ONLY PLACE 20% AT THIS PARTICULAR POINT WITH
A GENERALLY QUIET WEEK AHEAD. LONGER RANGE MODEL SUITE DOES
INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING SUBSTANTIALLY BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK HOWEVER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 55 37 57 34 66 / 20 10 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 55 36 56 29 65 / 20 10 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 55 37 58 31 66 / 20 10 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 53 33 55 31 65 / 10 10 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 57 38 60 32 68 / 20 10 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 53 35 54 30 65 / 10 10 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 56 36 59 29 67 / 20 10 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 54 37 56 31 65 / 20 10 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 55 39 56 31 64 / 40 20 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 55 38 57 33 66 / 20 10 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 56 38 58 32 67 / 30 20 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
340 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON TODAY AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST TO 50 MILES INLAND TOWARDS LAVACA AND DEWITT COUNTIES ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE AREA. A
SHARP 20F DEWPOINT GRADIENT IS NOTED BETWEEN GONZALES AND
VICTORIA AS OF 3AM. THIS FRONT SHOULD STALL THROUGH THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEPER NORTHWESTERN
MOMENTUM. PER WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS, A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER NEW MEXICO INTO NORTH MEXICO.
THIS FEATURE WILL AID IN MID-LEVEL INCREASED DIVERGENCE THROUGH
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE AREA BEING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, ENOUGH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN A VERY WEAK ELEVATED UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISO/SCT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. UPDRAFTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ROBUST AND THUNDER IS
NOT EXPECTED GIVEN THE VERY POOR LAPSE RATES IN THE H7-H5 LAYER
ABOVE THE STRONG INVERSION. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN
PLACED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAINS WHERE THE UPGLIDE
AND MOISTURE WILL BE MORE ENHANCED. ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HIGH WITH MAX TOTALS IN SCATTERED LOCATIONS BETWEEN
ONE TENTH AND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE
LESS. STRONGER NORTHERLY MOMENTUM WILL ENSUE TONIGHT WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE TROUGH AND ISENTROPIC DOWNSLOPING WILL COMMENCE -
THUS ENDING THE RAIN CHANCES BY LATE EVENING.
DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH AND WEST WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS
PWATS DROP TO 0.3" OR BELOW ON WEDNESDAY. MORE SUN IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOUT 5 F DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH ONE COLD
MORNING EXPECTED THURSDAY THAT WILL BE THEN FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WARM UP TO NORMAL AND THEN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REACH NEAR 80 DEGREES BY
SUNDAY WITH AMPLE SUN LIKELY. THE NEXT RAIN CHANCE MAY NOT COME
UNTIL NEXT TUESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THE NEXT WEEK
WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
AND LOWER 30S EVERYWHERE ELSE. SEVERAL MOS GUIDANCE VALUES
SUGGESTED LOWER VALUES VS. ORIGINAL BLEND GUIDANCE AND FOLLOWED
SUIT BY TRIMMING 2F DEGREES OFF. DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER
20S AND WITH NEAR CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS - THIS WOULD LIKELY
SET THE STAGE FOR A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOL OFF THAT WOULD OVER
ACHIEVE VS. WHAT RAW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. WITH SUCH DRY AIR
IN PLACE, LARGE DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE THE NORM BY LATE WEEK AS
HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 60S THURSDAY AFTN THEN 70S FRI/SAT. BY
SUNDAY...H925 TEMPS WILL REACH 18-20C THAT WILL SUPPORT SURFACE
VALUES CLOSE TO 80F DEGREES. DESPITE A POSSIBLE TROUGH PASSAGE
SATURDAY, MOISTURE APPEARS TOO LOW FOR ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND WITH GENERAL ZONAL FLOW NOTED
OTHERWISE. IT IS NOT TILL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN A LARGER TROUGH
TAKES FORM OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THEN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF AGREE THAT A FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD OCCUR
LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME-FRAME WITH LOW-END RAIN OR POSSIBLY EVEN
THUNDER CHANCES. HAVE ONLY PLACE 20% AT THIS PARTICULAR POINT WITH
A GENERALLY QUIET WEEK AHEAD. LONGER RANGE MODEL SUITE DOES
INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING SUBSTANTIALLY BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK HOWEVER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 55 37 57 34 66 / 20 10 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 55 36 56 29 65 / 20 10 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 55 37 58 31 66 / 20 10 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 53 33 55 31 65 / 10 10 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 57 38 60 32 68 / 20 10 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 53 35 54 30 65 / 10 10 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 56 36 59 29 67 / 20 10 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 54 37 56 31 65 / 20 10 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 55 39 56 31 64 / 40 20 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 55 38 57 33 66 / 20 10 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 56 38 58 32 67 / 30 20 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1251 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT AND WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER....AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST TUESDAY...
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN MOVED INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OVER THE
PAST COUPLE HOURS AND COVERAGE HAS SLOWLY INCREASED EASTWARD AS OF
17Z. BUMPED POPS UP A BIT ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY BUT
OTHERWISE HELD STEADY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. MOST OF THE
REGION IS CLOUDY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE DANVILLE...HALIFAX...AND BUCKINGHAM ARE
STILL REPORTING CLR SKIES. BUMPED HIGH TEMPS UP SEVERAL DEGREES
OUT EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASED SUNSHINE.
AS OF 945 AM EST TUESDAY...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS POINT ARE ALL ABOVE
FREEZING SO THE CONCERN ABOUT ANY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS HAS PASSED. HRRR IS STILL CONSISTENT WITH
BRINGING PRECIP IN TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AFTER 17Z...JUST
LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE THEN.
CONTINUING TO STAY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON.
AS OF 350 AM EST TUESDAY...
VORTICITY MAX OVER MICHIGAN WAS MOVING NORTHEAST WITH THE SURFACE
LOW OVER MICHIGAN AND THE COLD FRONT TRAILING INTO NORTHERN
LOUISIANA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY BUT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
FROM JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...THE FRONT WILL BECOME PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER FLOW
AND MAKE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS SOUTHEAST.
00Z NAM ALONG WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL WRF HAD REASONABLE
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY. THE FIRST AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS MORNING. MET AND MAV GUIDANCE...AS WELL
AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED LOWER LAYERS SATURATING AND
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS RISING EARLY THIS MORNING. BY THE
TIME THE PRECIPITATION IS ABLE TO SURVIVE ALL THE WAY TO THE
SURFACE...ONLY PARTS OF GREENBRIER COUNTY HAVE ANY THREAT OF
FREEZING RAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
RISING ABOVE FREEZING BY 10AM.
THE THIN BAND OF RAIN FROM OHIO INTO LOUISIANA WILL MOVE EAST WITH
THE FRONT...REACHING THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH PROGRESS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UNTIL AFTER 21Z/4PM.
EVENTUALLY SURFACE AND 850 MB FRONT PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT...ENOUGH COLD AIR ARRIVES TO CHANGE THE
PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...ON THE NORTHWEST
EDGE OF WHERE THE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
RETREATING SOUTHEAST. SO FOR NOW LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIMITED TO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.
STAYED CLOSE TO MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY AND MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EST TUESDAY...
BY 12Z(7 AM EST) WEDNESDAY...ALL THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS FORECAST
THE COLD FRONT TO BE WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY (ANAFRONT)...AND THE FORECAST AREA
STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A DEPARTING
UPPER LEVEL JET...PRECIP WILL LINGER WELL BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY UNTIL
LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR ARRIVES. THE NAM AND 21Z SREF ARE SEVERAL
HOURS SLOWER IN PUSHING PRECIP OUT OF THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...KEPT POPS IN THE EAST UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.
IF THE SLOWER SREF/NAM VERIFY...THIS WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCES OF
THE LIGHT RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE THE
PRECIP ENDS. OVER TIME...THE SREF PLUMES SHOW FEW MEMBERS
SUPPORTING SNOW. STILL KEPT A COUPLE OF HOURS OF A SMALL CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP WEDNESDAY...BUT NO
ACCUMULATION OF WINTRY PRECIP IS EXPECTED.
WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...CONTINUED TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR THE COLDER
NAM MOS GUIDANCE VALUES.
NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR SO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE...CONTINUE
TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WHICH MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND KEEPING THIS FEATURE WELL
EAST OF OUR AREA. AS CONFIDENCE GROWS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT
IMPACT OUR AREA...WE CONTINUE TO PUSH POPS DOWN IN THE EAST ON
THURSDAY.
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER NOW ANTICIPATED ON THURSDAY...AND A DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW...INCREASED HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY OUR ATTENTION SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTHERN
STREAM...WHERE A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY...BUT BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...AND FORECAST TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY
BE ABLE TO TAP SOME GREAT LAKE MOISTURE PRODUCING UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES. INTRODUCED SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS PERIOD FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...
LONGER RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA
WILL TRANSITION FROM A DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
INTO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFIES WELL OFFSHORE....TO MORE OF A FLAT ZONAL
FLOW BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SOME 1-3" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE
PREFERRED UPSLOPE AREAS...MOST NOTABLY WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY
WV.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPERATURE BACK TO WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AND SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN WHAT THEY OTHERWISE WOULD BE DUE TO COOLING INFLUENCE OF
MELTING DEEP SNOWPACK...AND ADJUSTED THERMAL PROFILES DOWNWARD A TAD
FROM GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH MAY NOT BE ACCOUNTING FOR
THE FULL INFLUENCE OF COOLING UNTIL THE DEEPER SNOWPACK IS FINALLY
ERODED AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO/THROUGH THE 40S SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY.
WEAK MEAN RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO DEFLECT NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH INCREASING WARM MOIST ADVECTION ON
WEST-WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE
APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM TUESDAY...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IS
STARTING TO ENTER THE REGION...WITH SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY JUST ABOUT
REACHING THE BLUE RIDGE. THE PARENT LOW DRIVING THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WELL TO OUR NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WHILE PIECES OF ENERGY RIPPLE ALONG IT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION AND SPREAD
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AND SHOWERS INTO TAF SITES. BEHIND THE FRONT
KBLF/KLWB/KBCB WILL GET INTO SOME UPSLOPE IFR CIGS WITH SOME
DRIZZLE...AND AS TEMPERATURES FALL THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE PRECIPITATION GOES OVER TO SNOW. SITES FURTHER
EAST WILL HAVE NO PTYPE ISSUES AND WILL SEE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT/TOWARD DAYBREAK. EXPECT VFR FOR KROA/KLYH/KDAN
FOR WEDNESDAY WITH CONDITIONS TRENDING UPWARD DURING THE MORNING AT
KBCB/KLWB/KBLF.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW CONTINUES TO BE BRISK SO WILL RETAIN SPEED WIND SHEAR FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. WITH BETTER MOMENTUM TRANSFER BEHIND THE
FRONT SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE ESPECIALLY
KROA AND KBLF.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
OTHERWISE AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IN STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW AND
INCREASINGLY COLD AIR MAY PROVIDE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND -SHSN
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED
FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST WHERE WILL REMAIN UNDER DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1250 PM EST TUESDAY...
OBSERVATION EQUIPMENT AT KBCB...VIRGINIA TECH AIRPORT...HAS
RETURNED TO SERVICE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/CF
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...MBS
EQUIPMENT...AMS/CF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1247 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT AND WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER....AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST TUESDAY...
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN MOVED INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OVER THE
PAST COUPLE HOURS AND COVERAGE HAS SLOWLY INCREASED EASTWARD AS OF
17Z. BUMPED POPS UP A BIT ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY BUT
OTHERWISE HELD STEADY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. MOST OF THE
REGION IS CLOUDY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE DANVILLE...HALIFAX...AND BUCKINGHAM ARE
STILL REPORTING CLR SKIES. BUMPED HIGH TEMPS UP SEVERAL DEGREES
OUT EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASED SUNSHINE.
AS OF 945 AM EST TUESDAY...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS POINT ARE ALL ABOVE
FREEZING SO THE CONCERN ABOUT ANY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS HAS PASSED. HRRR IS STILL CONSISTENT WITH
BRINGING PRECIP IN TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AFTER 17Z...JUST
LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE THEN.
CONTINUING TO STAY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON.
AS OF 350 AM EST TUESDAY...
VORTICITY MAX OVER MICHIGAN WAS MOVING NORTHEAST WITH THE SURFACE
LOW OVER MICHIGAN AND THE COLD FRONT TRAILING INTO NORTHERN
LOUISIANA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY BUT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
FROM JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...THE FRONT WILL BECOME PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER FLOW
AND MAKE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS SOUTHEAST.
00Z NAM ALONG WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL WRF HAD REASONABLE
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY. THE FIRST AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS MORNING. MET AND MAV GUIDANCE...AS WELL
AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED LOWER LAYERS SATURATING AND
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS RISING EARLY THIS MORNING. BY THE
TIME THE PRECIPITATION IS ABLE TO SURVIVE ALL THE WAY TO THE
SURFACE...ONLY PARTS OF GREENBRIER COUNTY HAVE ANY THREAT OF
FREEZING RAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
RISING ABOVE FREEZING BY 10AM.
THE THIN BAND OF RAIN FROM OHIO INTO LOUISIANA WILL MOVE EAST WITH
THE FRONT...REACHING THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH PROGRESS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UNTIL AFTER 21Z/4PM.
EVENTUALLY SURFACE AND 850 MB FRONT PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT...ENOUGH COLD AIR ARRIVES TO CHANGE THE
PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...ON THE NORTHWEST
EDGE OF WHERE THE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
RETREATING SOUTHEAST. SO FOR NOW LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIMITED TO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.
STAYED CLOSE TO MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY AND MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EST TUESDAY...
BY 12Z(7 AM EST) WEDNESDAY...ALL THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS FORECAST
THE COLD FRONT TO BE WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY (ANAFRONT)...AND THE FORECAST AREA
STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A DEPARTING
UPPER LEVEL JET...PRECIP WILL LINGER WELL BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY UNTIL
LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR ARRIVES. THE NAM AND 21Z SREF ARE SEVERAL
HOURS SLOWER IN PUSHING PRECIP OUT OF THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...KEPT POPS IN THE EAST UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.
IF THE SLOWER SREF/NAM VERIFY...THIS WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCES OF
THE LIGHT RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE THE
PRECIP ENDS. OVER TIME...THE SREF PLUMES SHOW FEW MEMBERS
SUPPORTING SNOW. STILL KEPT A COUPLE OF HOURS OF A SMALL CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP WEDNESDAY...BUT NO
ACCUMULATION OF WINTRY PRECIP IS EXPECTED.
WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...CONTINUED TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR THE COLDER
NAM MOS GUIDANCE VALUES.
NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR SO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE...CONTINUE
TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WHICH MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND KEEPING THIS FEATURE WELL
EAST OF OUR AREA. AS CONFIDENCE GROWS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT
IMPACT OUR AREA...WE CONTINUE TO PUSH POPS DOWN IN THE EAST ON
THURSDAY.
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER NOW ANTICIPATED ON THURSDAY...AND A DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW...INCREASED HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY OUR ATTENTION SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTHERN
STREAM...WHERE A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY...BUT BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...AND FORECAST TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY
BE ABLE TO TAP SOME GREAT LAKE MOISTURE PRODUCING UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES. INTRODUCED SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS PERIOD FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...
LONGER RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA
WILL TRANSITION FROM A DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
INTO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFIES WELL OFFSHORE....TO MORE OF A FLAT ZONAL
FLOW BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SOME 1-3" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE
PREFERRED UPSLOPE AREAS...MOST NOTABLY WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY
WV.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPERATURE BACK TO WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AND SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN WHAT THEY OTHERWISE WOULD BE DUE TO COOLING INFLUENCE OF
MELTING DEEP SNOWPACK...AND ADJUSTED THERMAL PROFILES DOWNWARD A TAD
FROM GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH MAY NOT BE ACCOUNTING FOR
THE FULL INFLUENCE OF COOLING UNTIL THE DEEPER SNOWPACK IS FINALLY
ERODED AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO/THROUGH THE 40S SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY.
WEAK MEAN RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO DEFLECT NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH INCREASING WARM MOIST ADVECTION ON
WEST-WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE
APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM TUESDAY...
CEILINGS WERE LOWERING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION AND
WERE ALREADY MVFR AT KLWB AND KBLF. USED THE TIMING OF THE LAST
FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR...THE 00Z LOCAL WRF AND THE 00Z NAM FOR THE
ARRIVAL OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH 13Z/9AM AT KLWB WILL BE BELOW FREEZING SO VERY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH RADARS IN THE AREA WERE NOT
SHOWING MUCH PRECIPITATION AS OF 12Z.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DUE TO A
STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET...LLWS WAS STILL INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS. SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST
AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST. EXPECTING THE FRONT TO BE
SOUTHEAST OF KDAN BY 09Z/4AM TONIGHT.
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED WITH RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS COLDER AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE PRECIPITATION SLOWS DOWN...THEN
COULD SEE A PERIOD OF SNOW OR MIX MOUNTAINS BY LATE TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE OCCURRENCE OF SNOW AT KLWB AND KBLF.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
LATEST MODELS INDICATE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE
MOISTURE WITH MOST NOW INDICATING VFR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IN STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW AND
INCREASINGLY COLD AIR MAY PROVIDE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND -SHSN
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED
FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST WHERE WILL REMAIN UNDER DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS EARLY SATURDAY.
NOTE...AWOS OBSERVATION EQUIPMENT AT KBCB...VIRGINIA TECH
AIRPORT...IS OUT OF SERVICE. AMD NOT SKED HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE
TAF.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 650 AM EST TUESDAY...
OBSERVATION EQUIPMENT AT KBCB...VIRGINIA TECH AIRPORT...IS OUT OF
SERVICE. SOME ELEMENTS OF THE SURFACE OBSERVATION...INCLUDING SKY
COVER...PRECIPITATION AND WIND...WILL NOT BE REPORTED UNTIL THIS
IS REPAIRED.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/CF
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...AMS/JH
EQUIPMENT...AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
949 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT AND WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER....AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EST TUESDAY...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS POINT ARE ALL ABOVE
FREEZING SO THE CONCERN ABOUT ANY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS HAS PASSED. HRRR IS STILL CONSISTENT WITH
BRINGING PRECIP IN TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AFTER 17Z...JUST
LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE THEN.
CONTINUING TO STAY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON.
AS OF 350 AM EST TUESDAY...
VORTICITY MAX OVER MICHIGAN WAS MOVING NORTHEAST WITH THE SURFACE
LOW OVER MICHIGAN AND THE COLD FRONT TRAILING INTO NORTHERN
LOUISIANA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY BUT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
FROM JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...THE FRONT WILL BECOME PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER FLOW
AND MAKE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS SOUTHEAST.
00Z NAM ALONG WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL WRF HAD REASONABLE
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY. THE FIRST AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS MORNING. MET AND MAV GUIDANCE...AS WELL
AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED LOWER LAYERS SATURATING AND
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS RISING EARLY THIS MORNING. BY THE
TIME THE PRECIPITATION IS ABLE TO SURVIVE ALL THE WAY TO THE
SURFACE...ONLY PARTS OF GREENBRIER COUNTY HAVE ANY THREAT OF
FREEZING RAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
RISING ABOVE FREEZING BY 10AM.
THE THIN BAND OF RAIN FROM OHIO INTO LOUISIANA WILL MOVE EAST WITH
THE FRONT...REACHING THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH PROGRESS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UNTIL AFTER 21Z/4PM.
EVENTUALLY SURFACE AND 850 MB FRONT PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT...ENOUGH COLD AIR ARRIVES TO CHANGE THE
PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...ON THE NORTHWEST
EDGE OF WHERE THE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
RETREATING SOUTHEAST. SO FOR NOW LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIMITED TO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.
STAYED CLOSE TO MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY AND MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EST TUESDAY...
BY 12Z(7 AM EST) WEDNESDAY...ALL THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS FORECAST
THE COLD FRONT TO BE WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY (ANAFRONT)...AND THE FORECAST AREA
STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A DEPARTING
UPPER LEVEL JET...PRECIP WILL LINGER WELL BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY UNTIL
LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR ARRIVES. THE NAM AND 21Z SREF ARE SEVERAL
HOURS SLOWER IN PUSHING PRECIP OUT OF THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...KEPT POPS IN THE EAST UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.
IF THE SLOWER SREF/NAM VERIFY...THIS WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCES OF
THE LIGHT RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE THE
PRECIP ENDS. OVER TIME...THE SREF PLUMES SHOW FEW MEMBERS
SUPPORTING SNOW. STILL KEPT A COUPLE OF HOURS OF A SMALL CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP WEDNESDAY...BUT NO
ACCUMULATION OF WINTRY PRECIP IS EXPECTED.
WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...CONTINUED TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR THE COLDER
NAM MOS GUIDANCE VALUES.
NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR SO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE...CONTINUE
TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WHICH MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND KEEPING THIS FEATURE WELL
EAST OF OUR AREA. AS CONFIDENCE GROWS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT
IMPACT OUR AREA...WE CONTINUE TO PUSH POPS DOWN IN THE EAST ON
THURSDAY.
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER NOW ANTICIPATED ON THURSDAY...AND A DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW...INCREASED HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY OUR ATTENTION SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTHERN
STREAM...WHERE A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY...BUT BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...AND FORECAST TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY
BE ABLE TO TAP SOME GREAT LAKE MOISTURE PRODUCING UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES. INTRODUCED SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS PERIOD FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...
LONGER RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA
WILL TRANSITION FROM A DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
INTO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFIES WELL OFFSHORE....TO MORE OF A FLAT ZONAL
FLOW BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SOME 1-3" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE
PREFERRED UPSLOPE AREAS...MOST NOTABLY WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY
WV.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPERATURE BACK TO WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AND SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN WHAT THEY OTHERWISE WOULD BE DUE TO COOLING INFLUENCE OF
MELTING DEEP SNOWPACK...AND ADJUSTED THERMAL PROFILES DOWNWARD A TAD
FROM GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH MAY NOT BE ACCOUNTING FOR
THE FULL INFLUENCE OF COOLING UNTIL THE DEEPER SNOWPACK IS FINALLY
ERODED AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO/THROUGH THE 40S SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY.
WEAK MEAN RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO DEFLECT NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH INCREASING WARM MOIST ADVECTION ON
WEST-WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE
APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM TUESDAY...
CEILINGS WERE LOWERING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION AND
WERE ALREADY MVFR AT KLWB AND KBLF. USED THE TIMING OF THE LAST
FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR...THE 00Z LOCAL WRF AND THE 00Z NAM FOR THE
ARRIVAL OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH 13Z/9AM AT KLWB WILL BE BELOW FREEZING SO VERY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH RADARS IN THE AREA WERE NOT
SHOWING MUCH PRECIPITATION AS OF 12Z.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DUE TO A
STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET...LLWS WAS STILL INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS. SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST
AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST. EXPECTING THE FRONT TO BE
SOUTHEAST OF KDAN BY 09Z/4AM TONIGHT.
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED WITH RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS COLDER AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE PRECIPITATION SLOWS DOWN...THEN
COULD SEE A PERIOD OF SNOW OR MIX MOUNTAINS BY LATE TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE OCCURRENCE OF SNOW AT KLWB AND KBLF.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
LATEST MODELS INDICATE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE
MOISTURE WITH MOST NOW INDICATING VFR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IN STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW AND
INCREASINGLY COLD AIR MAY PROVIDE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND -SHSN
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED
FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST WHERE WILL REMAIN UNDER DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS EARLY SATURDAY.
NOTE...AWOS OBSERVATION EQUIPMENT AT KBCB...VIRGINIA TECH
AIRPORT...IS OUT OF SERVICE. AMD NOT SKED HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE
TAF.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 650 AM EST TUESDAY...
OBSERVATION EQUIPMENT AT KBCB...VIRGINIA TECH AIRPORT...IS OUT OF
SERVICE. SOME ELEMENTS OF THE SURFACE OBSERVATION...INCLUDING SKY
COVER...PRECIPITATION AND WIND...WILL NOT BE REPORTED UNTIL THIS
IS REPAIRED.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/CF
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...AMS/JH
EQUIPMENT...AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
415 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT AND WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER....AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM EST TUESDAY...
VORTICITY MAX OVER MICHIGAN WAS MOVING NORTHEAST WITH THE SURFACE
LOW OVER MICHIGAN AND THE COLD FRONT TRAILING INTO NORTHERN
LOUISIANA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY BUT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
FROM JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...THE FRONT WILL BECOME PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER FLOW
AND MAKE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS SOUTHEAST.
00Z NAM ALONG WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL WRF HAD REASONABLE
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY. THE FIRST AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS MORNING. MET AND MAV GUIDANCE...AS WELL
AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED LOWER LAYERS SATURATING AND
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS RISING EARLY THIS MORNING. BY THE
TIME THE PRECIPITATION IS ABLE TO SURVIVE ALL THE WAY TO THE
SURFACE...ONLY PARTS OF GREENBRIER COUNTY HAVE ANY THREAT OF
FREEZING RAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
RISING ABOVE FREEZING BY 10AM.
THE THIN BAND OF RAIN FROM OHIO INTO LOUISIANA WILL MOVE EAST WITH
THE FRONT...REACHING THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH PROGRESS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UNTIL AFTER 21Z/4PM.
EVENTUALLY SURFACE AND 850 MB FRONT PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT...ENOUGH COLD AIR ARRIVES TO CHANGE THE
PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...ON THE NORTHWEST
EDGE OF WHERE THE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
RETREATING SOUTHEAST. SO FOR NOW LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIMITED TO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.
STAYED CLOSE TO MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY AND MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EST TUESDAY...
BY 12Z(7 AM EST) WEDNESDAY...ALL THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS FORECAST
THE COLD FRONT TO BE WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY (ANAFRONT)...AND THE FORECAST AREA
STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A DEPARTING
UPPER LEVEL JET...PRECIP WILL LINGER WELL BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY UNTIL
LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR ARRIVES. THE NAM AND 21Z SREF ARE SEVERAL
HOURS SLOWER IN PUSHING PRECIP OUT OF THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...KEPT POPS IN THE EAST UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.
IF THE SLOWER SREF/NAM VERIFY...THIS WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCES OF
THE LIGHT RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE THE
PRECIP ENDS. OVER TIME...THE SREF PLUMES SHOW FEW MEMBERS
SUPPORTING SNOW. STILL KEPT A COUPLE OF HOURS OF A SMALL CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP WEDNESDAY...BUT NO
ACCUMULATION OF WINTRY PRECIP IS EXPECTED.
WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...CONTINUED TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR THE COLDER
NAM MOS GUIDANCE VALUES.
NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR SO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE...CONTINUE
TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WHICH MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND KEEPING THIS FEATURE WELL
EAST OF OUR AREA. AS CONFIDENCE GROWS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT
IMPACT OUR AREA...WE CONTINUE TO PUSH POPS DOWN IN THE EAST ON
THURSDAY.
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER NOW ANTICIPATED ON THURSDAY...AND A DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW...INCREASED HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY OUR ATTENTION SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTHERN
STREAM...WHERE A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY...BUT BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...AND FORECAST TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY
BE ABLE TO TAP SOME GREAT LAKE MOISTURE PRODUCING UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES. INTRODUCED SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS PERIOD FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...
LONGER RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA
WILL TRANSITION FROM A DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
INTO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFIES WELL OFFSHORE....TO MORE OF A FLAT ZONAL
FLOW BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SOME 1-3" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE
PREFERRED UPSLOPE AREAS...MOST NOTABLY WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY
WV.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPERATURE BACK TO WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AND SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN WHAT THEY OTHERWISE WOULD BE DUE TO COOLING INFLUENCE OF
MELTING DEEP SNOWPACK...AND ADJUSTED THERMAL PROFILES DOWNWARD A TAD
FROM GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH MAY NOT BE ACCOUNTING FOR
THE FULL INFLUENCE OF COOLING UNTIL THE DEEPER SNOWPACK IS FINALLY
ERODED AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO/THROUGH THE 40S SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY.
WEAK MEAN RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO DEFLECT NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH INCREASING WARM MOIST ADVECTION ON
WEST-WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE
APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1115 PM EST MONDAY...
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
LINGERING VFR TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT UNDER PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND
SOME INCREASE IN STRATO-CU OVER THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS MAY
BRING MVFR CIGS TO KBLF/KLWB LATE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES
AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN APPROACHES. HOWEVER GIVEN DRY AIR WILL KEEP
ANY PRECIP MENTION OUT OF THE WESTERN TAFS OVERNIGHT WHILE
LOWERING CIGS TO LOW END VFR OVER THE SE WEST VA SITES BY MORNING.
BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST WILL BE NEARING THE
WESTERN SLOPES...LIKELY PRECEDED BY A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN THAT
SHOULD START TO IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST WEST VA LOCATIONS DURING THE
MORNING. THUS WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN RAIN AT KLWB AND
KBLF BY MID MORNING TUESDAY AND THEN EDGE SLOWLY EAST TO
KBCB/KROA BY THE AFTERNOON. LATEST BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO LOWER TO IFR AT TIMES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER GUIDANCE REMAINS HESITANT
TO PUSH DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL VERY LATE
TUESDAY. THEREFORE HELD OFF ADDING RAIN MENTION AT KDAN ALTHOUGH
COULD SEE CIGS DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS ESPCLY AT KLYH LATER IN THE DAY
WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WHILE WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THE JET JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL RAMP UP TO 30-40 KTS
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL CREATE A SPEED WIND SHEAR
SITUATION AT MOST SITES INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF
KBLF WHERE SURFACE MIXING WILL BE BETTER.
COLD FRONT WILL PASS SLOWLY TO THE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH ANAFRONT TYPE DEEPER MOISTURE PERHAPS REMAINING ACROSS THE
REGION INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE BUT IF
PRECIP DOES PERSIST THEN COULD SEE SUB-VFR IN A PERIOD OF SNOW OR
MIX MOUNTAINS AND A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE IN THE EAST INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. DOES APPEAR THAT SUB-VFR CIGS AND PERIODIC VSBYS WILL
PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY IN THE EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER THE FAR EAST.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE MAY LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE RIDES THE FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER LATEST
MODELS INDICATE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE MOISTURE WITH
MOST NOW INDICATING VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IN STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW AND
INCREASINGLY COLD AIR MAY PROVIDE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND -SHSN
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED
FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST WHERE WILL REMAIN UNDER DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS EARLY
SATURDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH/MBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
710 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...HAVE CONFINED ANY PCPN TO NORTHERN WI
(MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM MERRILL TO STURGEON BAY)THIS EVG.
PCPN TYPE SHOULD BE PRIMARILY LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE...
AS MOST SFC TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BLO FREEZING IN NORTHERN
WI THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LATER TONIGHT...LIGHT PCPN SHOULD FILL IN
OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
MOST OF THIS PCPN SHOULD FALL AS LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 611 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
INITIAL BAND OF PCPN...WHICH WAS CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO A LACK OF MOISTURE...HAS PULLED OUT
OF NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. NEXT AREA OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COMMA HEAD OF THE SYSTEM WAS MOVG INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI...WITH
NUMEROUS OBSERVATIONS (AND A REPORT FROM VILAS COUNTY) INDICATING
A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING THERE. AS THE
DEEP MOISTURE ARRIVES IN FAR NC WI...THE MIXED PXPN SHOULD CHANGE
TO ALL SNOW FOR A WHILE...WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION NORTH OF RHINELANDER.
NOT SURE IF PCPN WILL BE CONFINED TO JUST NORTHERN WI FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT...AS MODELS SHOW SUBTLE BUT IMPORTANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE MOISTURE PROFILES OVERNIGHT. IF PCPN DOES
DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH...WARMING SFC TEMPS AND A POSSIBLE
LACK OF ICE IN THE SATURATED LAYER WILL MESS WITH PCPN TYPES.
HAVE RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF BLOWING SNOW EARLY THIS EVG...
SO HAVE ADDED PATCHY BLOWING SNOW TO THE FCST. WITH GUSTS
TO 25 TO 35 MPH CONTINUING INTO THE EVG...EXPECT THERE WILL
BE SOME TRAVEL CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN RURAL AREAS...
AND IN THE PORTIONS OF C/EC/NE WI THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIER
SNOW TOTALS (4-6 INCHES) A COUPLE NIGHTS AGO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A POTENT
CLIPPER MOVING EAST OVER THE BOUNDARY WATERS OF MINNESOTA. A SNOW
BAND IS SLIDING EAST AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER IN A WARM ADVECTION
REGIME. VISIBILITIES WERE FALLING TO A QUARTER AND HALF MILE WITHIN
THE BAND OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN EARLY TODAY...INDICATIVE OF HEAVY
SNOW SHOWERS...BUT RADAR EVIDENCE SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGEST SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE WEAKENED SOME. THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
TO THE EAST AND IMPACT MOST OF THE REGION NORTH OF ROUTE 29. IT
COULD BRIEFLY DROP VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE AND ACCUMULATE AROUND A
HALF AN INCH. BEHIND THE BAND OF LIGHT SNOW...SCATTERED FLURRIES AND
DRIZZLE ARE OCCURRING OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AS THE CLIPPER MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...A FAIRLY POTENT YET MOISTURE-STARVED CLIPPER WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSES
BY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. BAND OF WARM ADVECTION SNOWS WILL EXIT
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF LULL
IN THE PRECIP ACTIVITY BEHIND THIS BAND BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...BUT
THEN RELATIVELY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PINWHEEL AROUND BACK INTO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. MOISTURE STRUGGLES TO SATURATE AT TIMES ABOVE
-10C...SO LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES COULD BE MIXED WITH DRIZZLE AT
TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE DURING THE
EVENING TO NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WI...SO IMPACTS FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE IS REDUCED THERE SOMEWHAT.
COLDER TEMPS ALOFT OVER N-C WI SHOULD SEE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE
AS SNOW...AND ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY FALL ON EXISTING
SNOWFALL. SO THINK ANY IMPACTS FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
RELATIVELY MINOR...PERHAPS A FEW SLICK SPOTS COULD DEVELOP ON
UNTREATED ROADS. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS COULD REACH AN INCH OR
TWO IN THE SNOW BELTS...WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT LATE TONIGHT WILL
PROVIDE MORE PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH.
THURSDAY...THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN AN ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION...AND SERVE TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. COMBINED WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER AND FLURRY
ACTIVITY. MORE PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE SNOW
BELT OF N-C WI WHERE AN ADDITIONAL INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THINK THE
SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS WILL NOT MOVE MUCH WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION OCCURRING. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
NW FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO DISSIPATE LATE THIS
WEEK...BUT NOT BEFORE ONE MORE WEAK CLIPPER BRUSHES THE AREA FRI
NGT. AS A NEW UPR RDG BUILDS OVER THE ERN PACIFIC THIS WEEKEND...
THE MEAN FLOW BECOMES SPLIT WITH A WEAK NRN STREAM RUNNING ALONG
THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER AND A STRONGER SRN STREAM RUNNING FROM
THE SW CONUS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. A DEVELOPING SYSTEM IS FCST TO
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT NGT/SUNDAY AND BRING MIXED PCPN TO
NE WI. FOCUS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONTS TO BE A STRONG
SYSTEM PROGGED TO LIFT INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY TUE AND THE GREAT
LAKES ON WED. PLENTY OF TIME YET TO DETERMINE PCPN TYPE OR SNOW
TOTALS...BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE COMING DAYS.
ANY RESIDUAL LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS OR FLURRIES OVER N-CNTRL
WI WL END RATHER QUICKLY THU EVENING AS A RDG OF HI PRES BUILDS
INTO WI. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR A
TIME...ALTHO MODELS DO SHOW HI CLOUDS PUSHING INTO WRN WI LATE THU
NGT AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER. THESE MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FRESH SNOW WL ALLOW TEMPS TO
EASILY FALL. WL NEED TO CHOP READINGS DOWN A GOOD 3 TO 5 DEGS ON
AVERAGE OVER MOST LOCATIONS WITH NRN WI FROM ZERO TO 5 ABOVE...
CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI AROUND 10 ABOVE AND THE LAKESHORE FROM 10 TO 15.
AS THE SFC RDG SLIDES TO OUR EAST ON FRI...A SOUTHERLY WIND TO
DEVELOP ACROSS WI WITH INCREASING ISEN LIFT AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER
WHICH IS FCST TO REACH NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG BY 00Z SAT. CLOUDS WL
CONT TO THICKEN OVER NE WI THRU THE DAY WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
PCPN REACHING NRN AND PARTS OF CNTRL WI IN THE MORNING AND THE
REST OF NE WI DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PCPN TYPE SHOULD REMAIN
ALL SNOW...BUT WL HAVE TO WATCH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
AS WAA COULD MIX IN A LITTLE SLEET. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE GENERALLY
IN THE MID TO UPR 20S.L
THE CLIPPER IS FCST TO MOVE EWD INTO WRN ONTARIO FRI NGT AND SWING
A CDFNT ACROSS WI IN THE PROCESS. THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING
IS PROGGED TO BE FROM NRN WI NWD...THUS HIGHER POPS OVER NRN WI
WHERE UP TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. THE QUICK-MOVING
SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM COUPLED WITH LOW SNOW RATIOS WL LIMIT SNOW
AMOUNTS. ONCE AGAIN...THERE MIGHT BE A LITTLE SLEET OR EVEN
FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN WITH THE SNOW FRI EVENING BEFORE COLDER AIR
ALOFT ARRIVES AND CHANGES PCPN TO ALL SNOW. MIN TEMPS COULD
ACTUALLY SLOWLY RISE UNTIL FROPA AND THEN HOLD SOMEWHAT STEADY TIL
DAYBREAK. LOOK FOR READINGS BY SAT MORNING TO BE INTO THE UPR 20S
NORTH...LWR TO MID 30S SOUTH. THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
LATE FRI NGT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING AND COULD END UP AS PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER LATE SAT
MORNING. THIS LEAVES THE REGION UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIE WITH WEST WINDS CONTINUING TO BRING MILD CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA. SAT MAY END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED FCST
WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 30S NORTH...UPR 30S TO LWR 40S
SOUTH.
MODELS CONT TO SEND A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TOWARD
THE WRN GREAT LAKES SAT NGT AS THE MEAN FLOW TO BE TURNING TO THE
SW. PCPN TYPE SHOULD INITIALLY BE ALL SNOW...BUT AS WARMER AIR
GETS PULLED NWD INTON WI TOWARD DAYBREAK...WL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON ANY POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF EITHER RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN OVER
SRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. PCPN TYPE WL REMAIN A CONCERN THRU
SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES RIDES NE ALONG AN EWD MOVING CDFNT.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH HOW MUCH WARM AIR WL BE OVER NE WI AS
THE PCPN FALLS...NOT TO MENTION WHERE THE HEAVIEST PCPN WL FALL.
IT APPEARS THAT THE NORTH WOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW THRU THE DAY...
WHILE RAIN WL MIX WITH THE SNOW CNTRL/FAR NE WI AND A MIX WOULD
CHANGE TO ALL RAIN E-CNTRL. AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD WI
LATER IN THE DAY BEHIND THE CDFNT...THE MIXED PCPN OVER CNTRL WI
COULD BEGIN TO SWITCH BACK TO ALL SNOW. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY TO
RANGE FROM THE LWR TO MID 30S NORTH...MID TO UPR 30S SOUTH.
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW IS FCST TO LINGER INTO SUNDAY NGT AS THIS SYSTEM
TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF PULLING AWAY FROM WI. A QUIET DAY IS
EXPECTED ON MON AS CAA TO BE IN PLAY UNDER A N-NW WIND. THERE MAY
BE SOME LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL OVER N-CNTRL WI...BUT ANY ACTIVITY
LOOKS MINOR AT THIS TIME. MAX TEMPS ON MON TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
THAN THE WEEKEND...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF
FEB.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT STORM THAT IS
PROGGED TO LIFT FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY TUE AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE NGT/WED. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...
THE TRACK OF THE 8H AND SFC LOW PRES AREAS WOULD FAVOR ALL SNOW
FOR THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. HOWEVER...ANY MINOR JOG TO THE WEST
COULD CREATE PCPN TYPE ISSUES FOR E-CNTRL WI. TUE NGT APPEARS TO
BE THE PERIOD WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOWS WOULD FALL WITH LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUING THRU WED. TOO EARLY YET TO CONTEMPLATE ACCUMULATIONS...
BUT WITH GUSTY NE...THEN NORTH WINDS EXPECTED...TUE NGT INTO WED
HAVE THE EARMARKS OF A DIFFICULT TRAVELING PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 611 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE
AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING CLIPPER THIS EVENING. THE GUSTY SFC WINDS
MAY CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING ON AIRPORT RUNWAYS THROUGH THE
EVENING. LLWS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE
EVG AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE INITIAL BAND OF SNOW...WHICH AFFECT NORTHERN WI DURING THE
AFTERNOON...HAS SHIFTED EAST...BUT ADDITIONAL PCPN WAS MOVG INTO
NORTH CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS EVENING. A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH THIS EVENING...WITH FLURRIES
AND PATCHY LIGHT SNOW ANTICIPATED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ASA COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FLIGHT
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY...THOUGH BRIEF
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN NC WI. ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOULD
TAPER OFF ON THURSDAY...WITH CIGS IN THE 2500-4000 FT AGL RANGE
FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........KIECKBUSCH
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
700 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
EARLY UPDATE THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR A LACK OF ANY ONGOING
SNOW FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-94 WHERE WE HAD LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS ONGOING. PER RADAR TRENDS...JUST NOT SEEING MUCH LIKELY TO
HAPPEN UP THAT WAY THE REST OF THE EVENING...AND LIKELY THROUGH AT
LEAST 2 AM. HOWEVER...DO GET THE FEELING BASED ON THE SETUP THAT
THERE COULD BE A NARROW WINDOW FOR SOME RATHER INTENSE SNOW
SHOWERS TO ROLL SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT INTO 9-10 AM TOMORROW
NORTH OF I-90 INTO WISCONSIN COUNTIES ALONG AN INCOMING SHALLOW
BUT RATHER SHARP COLD FRONT. UP UNTIL THAT FEATURE ARRIVES...
DEEPER MOISTURE/FORCING LOOK TO REMAIN CONFINED PRIMARILY NORTH OF
TAYLOR/CLARK COUNTIES WITH NOTHING WORSE THAN A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY
EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A PUSH OF SUB-800MB COLD ADVECTION BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 09-15Z...AND AN ASSOCIATED TIGHT LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
RESPONSE...DON`T HAVE MUCH DIFFICULTY ENVISIONING A BAND OF SNOW
SQUALLS RIDING SOUTHWARD ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. HI-
RES GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PICKING UP ON THIS IDEA THE PAST HANDFUL OF
HOURS AND THE IDEA IS STRONGLY SUPPORTED WITH VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND ENHANCED FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...AS EVIDENCED BY
THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER REALLY RAMPING UP FOR A TIME. OVERALL...
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY ACCUMULATION...BUT THERE IS A
POTENTIAL WINDOW THERE EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE FOR SOME TRAVEL
IMPACTS GIVEN BRIEF HEAVY RATES WITHIN ANY SQUALLS...NOT TO
MENTION EXPECTED GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS WITH
EXCELLENT MIXING FOR A TIME IN COLD ADVECTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
CURRENTLY AS OF 2 PM...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED A POTENT SHORTWAVE IN WESTERN WISCONSIN AND
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...WITH ANOTHER ONE QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS NEAR
LAKE WINNIPEG. BOTH WERE DIGGING QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD COMING
DOWN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WERE ACCOMPANYING
BOTH WAVES. DRY AIR EVIDENT ON THE 27.12Z MPX AND ABR RAOBS HAVE
KEPT THE SNOW NORTH OF WISCONSIN 29. SECOND BAND OF SNOW LOCATED
IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE THERE. SOUTHERLY
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO TIGHTENING
GRADIENT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOME MINOR DRIFTING SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND ON
THE BLUFF TOPS AND OPEN AREAS OF WESTERN WISCONSIN.
THE 27.12Z MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOUTH OF WISCONSIN 29...DRY AIR WILL WIN OUT AND IT WILL
ONLY RESULT IN SOME LOWERING OF THE CLOUDS FROM 6 TO 8K FEET TO
AROUND 3K FEET. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF
WISCONSIN 29...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ACCUMULATIONS.
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...THE LAKE WINNIPEG SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MINNESOTA
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WITH THE PRIOR SATURATION FROM THE
PREVIOUS SHORT WAVE...THERE WILL SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM
A TRACE TO A COUPLE OF TENTHS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE MODELS SHOW THAT ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. DRY
AIR ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM MAY LIMIT THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS PRECIPITATION...SO KEPT THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIQUID ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. AS A RESULT DEPENDING ON THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURE...THERE MAY BE SOME FREEZING RAIN TO CONTEND WITH.
MEANWHILE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...THERE LOOKS TO BE A WINTRY MIX
OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN...AND SLEET. DUE TO THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA...WE MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ISSUING A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THE AIR MASS WILL SATURATE
ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A
QUESTION ON HOW WARM AND DEEP WILL THE WARM LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL BE. AS A RESULT...JUST WENT WITH RAIN AND SNOW FOR NOW.
FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE 27.12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
THIS LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED DURING THIS TIME. WHILE THESE
MODELS HAVE FAIRLY DECENT TRACK AGREEMENT WITH LOW MOVING JUST
EAST OF DUBUQUE TO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. WITH THIS
TRACK...SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL FAVOR
SNOW ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF WAS JUST FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COULD BE POTENTIALLY WARM ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN IN
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. AS TYPICAL WITH LOWS MOVING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES...THE MODELS ARE QUITE VARIABLE WITH WHEN
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THE ENSEMBLES SHOW
ADDITIONAL REGIONAL VARIABILITY WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.
A FEW OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE AN OPEN WAVE AND AS A
RESULT THIS SYSTEM TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND THE AREA GETS
LITTLE SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM. MEANWHILE A FEW OF THE ECMWF MODELS
ACTUALLY HAVE A MORE WOUND UP SYSTEM AND AS A RESULT...THIS
SYSTEM WOULD TRACK WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE AREA COULD
POTENTIALLY SEE MORE RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. WITH THIS
SAID...THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF QUESTIONS WHICH NEED TO BE
ANSWERED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
A LARGE AREA OF LOWER STRATUS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SLIP
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE TERMINAL SITES AND WILL OVERTAKE THEM THROUGH
00Z...WITH CONDITIONS DECREASING TO MVFR LEVELS FOR BOTH KLSE AND
KRST. THAT THICKER STUFF MAY TRY TO BREAK UP FOR A TIME AS THE
WESTERN EDGE NUDGES EAST JUST AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT
TOWARD 06-08Z. HOWEVER...SHALLOW COLDER AIR SPILLING INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THAT FRONT SHOULD HELP QUICKLY REDEVELOP MVFR CEILINGS IN
THICKER STRATUS...LIKELY TO HANG AROUND FOR MUCH (IF NOT ALL) OF
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. ONE THING TO NOTE IS THAT THERE IS SOME SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF WINDOW OF SNOW SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THAT
FRONT...ESPECIALLY FOR KLSE...THOUGH THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE TO
THE NORTH AND WEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE GUSTY
THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SWITCH NORTHWARD AND GUST 25-30 KNOTS FOR A
TIME INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...AJ/BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...LAWRENCE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
613 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
AND NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 611 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
INITIAL BAND OF PCPN...WHICH WAS CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO A LACK OF MOISTURE...HAS PULLED OUT
OF NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. NEXT AREA OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COMMA HEAD OF THE SYSTEM WAS MOVG INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI...WITH
NUMEROUS OBSERVATIONS (AND A REPORT FROM VILAS COUNTY) INDICATING
A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING THERE. AS THE
DEEP MOISTURE ARRIVES IN FAR NC WI...THE MIXED PXPN SHOULD CHANGE
TO ALL SNOW FOR A WHILE...WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION NORTH OF RHINELANDER.
NOT SURE IF PCPN WILL BE CONFINED TO JUST NORTHERN WI FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT...AS MODELS SHOW SUBTLE BUT IMPORTANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE MOISTURE PROFILES OVERNIGHT. IF PCPN DOES
DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH...WARMING SFC TEMPS AND A POSSIBLE
LACK OF ICE IN THE SATURATED LAYER WILL MESS WITH PCPN TYPES.
HAVE RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF BLOWING SNOW EARLY THIS EVG...
SO HAVE ADDED PATCHY BLOWING SNOW TO THE FCST. WITH GUSTS
TO 25 TO 35 MPH CONTINUING INTO THE EVG...EXPECT THERE WILL
BE SOME TRAVEL CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN RURAL AREAS...
AND IN THE PORTIONS OF C/EC/NE WI THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIER
SNOW TOTALS (4-6 INCHES) A COUPLE NIGHTS AGO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A POTENT
CLIPPER MOVING EAST OVER THE BOUNDARY WATERS OF MINNESOTA. A SNOW
BAND IS SLIDING EAST AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER IN A WARM ADVECTION
REGIME. VISIBILITIES WERE FALLING TO A QUARTER AND HALF MILE WITHIN
THE BAND OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN EARLY TODAY...INDICATIVE OF HEAVY
SNOW SHOWERS...BUT RADAR EVIDENCE SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGEST SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE WEAKENED SOME. THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
TO THE EAST AND IMPACT MOST OF THE REGION NORTH OF ROUTE 29. IT
COULD BRIEFLY DROP VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE AND ACCUMULATE AROUND A
HALF AN INCH. BEHIND THE BAND OF LIGHT SNOW...SCATTERED FLURRIES AND
DRIZZLE ARE OCCURRING OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AS THE CLIPPER MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...A FAIRLY POTENT YET MOISTURE-STARVED CLIPPER WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSES
BY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. BAND OF WARM ADVECTION SNOWS WILL EXIT
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF LULL
IN THE PRECIP ACTIVITY BEHIND THIS BAND BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...BUT
THEN RELATIVELY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PINWHEEL AROUND BACK INTO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. MOISTURE STRUGGLES TO SATURATE AT TIMES ABOVE -
10C...SO LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES COULD BE MIXED WITH DRIZZLE AT
TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE DURING THE EVENING
TO NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI...SO IMPACTS
FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE IS REDUCED THERE SOMEWHAT. COLDER TEMPS ALOFT
OVER N-C WI SHOULD SEE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE AS SNOW...AND ANY
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY FALL ON EXISTING SNOWFALL. SO THINK
ANY IMPACTS FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE RELATIVELY MINOR...PERHAPS
A FEW SLICK SPOTS COULD DEVELOP ON UNTREATED ROADS. ADDITIONAL SNOW
AMOUNTS COULD REACH AN INCH OR TWO IN THE SNOW BELTS...WHERE LAKE
ENHANCEMENT LATE TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE MORE PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH.
THURSDAY...THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN AN ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION...AND SERVE TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. COMBINED WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER AND FLURRY
ACTIVITY. MORE PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE SNOW
BELT OF N-C WI WHERE AN ADDITIONAL INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THINK THE
SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS WILL NOT MOVE MUCH WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION OCCURRING. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
NW FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO DISSIPATE LATE THIS
WEEK...BUT NOT BEFORE ONE MORE WEAK CLIPPER BRUSHES THE AREA FRI
NGT. AS A NEW UPR RDG BUILDS OVER THE ERN PACIFIC THIS WEEKEND...
THE MEAN FLOW BECOMES SPLIT WITH A WEAK NRN STREAM RUNNING ALONG
THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER AND A STRONGER SRN STREAM RUNNING FROM
THE SW CONUS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. A DEVELOPING SYSTEM IS FCST TO
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT NGT/SUNDAY AND BRING MIXED PCPN TO
NE WI. FOCUS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONTS TO BE A STRONG
SYSTEM PROGGED TO LIFT INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY TUE AND THE GREAT
LAKES ON WED. PLENTY OF TIME YET TO DETERMINE PCPN TYPE OR SNOW
TOTALS...BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE COMING DAYS.
ANY RESIDUAL LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS OR FLURRIES OVER N-CNTRL
WI WL END RATHER QUICKLY THU EVENING AS A RDG OF HI PRES BUILDS
INTO WI. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR A
TIME...ALTHO MODELS DO SHOW HI CLOUDS PUSHING INTO WRN WI LATE THU
NGT AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER. THESE MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FRESH SNOW WL ALLOW TEMPS TO
EASILY FALL. WL NEED TO CHOP READINGS DOWN A GOOD 3 TO 5 DEGS ON
AVERAGE OVER MOST LOCATIONS WITH NRN WI FROM ZERO TO 5 ABOVE...
CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI AROUND 10 ABOVE AND THE LAKESHORE FROM 10 TO 15.
AS THE SFC RDG SLIDES TO OUR EAST ON FRI...A SOUTHERLY WIND TO
DEVELOP ACROSS WI WITH INCREASING ISEN LIFT AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER
WHICH IS FCST TO REACH NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG BY 00Z SAT. CLOUDS WL
CONT TO THICKEN OVER NE WI THRU THE DAY WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
PCPN REACHING NRN AND PARTS OF CNTRL WI IN THE MORNING AND THE
REST OF NE WI DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PCPN TYPE SHOULD REMAIN
ALL SNOW...BUT WL HAVE TO WATCH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
AS WAA COULD MIX IN A LITTLE SLEET. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE GENERALLY
IN THE MID TO UPR 20S.
THE CLIPPER IS FCST TO MOVE EWD INTO WRN ONTARIO FRI NGT AND SWING
A CDFNT ACROSS WI IN THE PROCESS. THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING
IS PROGGED TO BE FROM NRN WI NWD...THUS HIGHER POPS OVER NRN WI
WHERE UP TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. THE QUICK-MOVING
SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM COUPLED WITH LOW SNOW RATIOS WL LIMIT SNOW
AMOUNTS. ONCE AGAIN...THERE MIGHT BE A LITTLE SLEET OR EVEN
FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN WITH THE SNOW FRI EVENING BEFORE COLDER AIR
ALOFT ARRIVES AND CHANGES PCPN TO ALL SNOW. MIN TEMPS COULD
ACTUALLY SLOWLY RISE UNTIL FROPA AND THEN HOLD SOMEWHAT STEADY TIL
DAYBREAK. LOOK FOR READINGS BY SAT MORNING TO BE INTO THE UPR 20S
NORTH...LWR TO MID 30S SOUTH. THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
LATE FRI NGT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING AND COULD END UP AS PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER LATE SAT
MORNING. THIS LEAVES THE REGION UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIE WITH WEST WINDS CONTINUING TO BRING MILD CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA. SAT MAY END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED FCST
WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 30S NORTH...UPR 30S TO LWR 40S
SOUTH.
MODELS CONT TO SEND A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TOWARD
THE WRN GREAT LAKES SAT NGT AS THE MEAN FLOW TO BE TURNING TO THE
SW. PCPN TYPE SHOULD INITIALLY BE ALL SNOW...BUT AS WARMER AIR
GETS PULLED NWD INTON WI TOWARD DAYBREAK...WL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON ANY POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF EITHER RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN OVER
SRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. PCPN TYPE WL REMAIN A CONCERN THRU
SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES RIDES NE ALONG AN EWD MOVING CDFNT.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH HOW MUCH WARM AIR WL BE OVER NE WI AS
THE PCPN FALLS...NOT TO MENTION WHERE THE HEAVIEST PCPN WL FALL.
IT APPEARS THAT THE NORTH WOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW THRU THE DAY...
WHILE RAIN WL MIX WITH THE SNOW CNTRL/FAR NE WI AND A MIX WOULD
CHANGE TO ALL RAIN E-CNTRL. AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD WI
LATER IN THE DAY BEHIND THE CDFNT...THE MIXED PCPN OVER CNTRL WI
COULD BEGIN TO SWITCH BACK TO ALL SNOW. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY TO
RANGE FROM THE LWR TO MID 30S NORTH...MID TO UPR 30S SOUTH.
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW IS FCST TO LINGER INTO SUNDAY NGT AS THIS SYSTEM
TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF PULLING AWAY FROM WI. A QUIET DAY IS
EXPECTED ON MON AS CAA TO BE IN PLAY UNDER A N-NW WIND. THERE MAY
BE SOME LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL OVER N-CNTRL WI...BUT ANY ACTIVITY
LOOKS MINOR AT THIS TIME. MAX TEMPS ON MON TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
THAN THE WEEKEND...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF
FEB.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT STORM THAT IS
PROGGED TO LIFT FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY TUE AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE NGT/WED. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...
THE TRACK OF THE 8H AND SFC LOW PRES AREAS WOULD FAVOR ALL SNOW
FOR THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. HOWEVER...ANY MINOR JOG TO THE WEST
COULD CREATE PCPN TYPE ISSUES FOR E-CNTRL WI. TUE NGT APPEARS TO
BE THE PERIOD WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOWS WOULD FALL WITH LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUING THRU WED. TOO EARLY YET TO CONTEMPLATE ACCUMULATIONS...
BUT WITH GUSTY NE...THEN NORTH WINDS EXPECTED...TUE NGT INTO WED
HAVE THE EARMARKS OF A DIFFICULT TRAVELING PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 611 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE
AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING CLIPPER THIS EVENING. THE GUSTY SFC WINDS
MAY CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING ON AIRPORT RUNWAYS THROUGH THE
EVENING. LLWS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE
EVG AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE INITIAL BAND OF SNOW...WHICH AFFECT NORTHERN WI DURING THE
AFTERNOON...HAS SHIFTED EAST...BUT ADDITIONAL PCPN WAS MOVG INTO
NORTH CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS EVENING. A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH...WITH FLURRIES AND PATCHY
LIGHT SNOW ANTICIPATED LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FLIGHT
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY...THOUGH BRIEF
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN NC WI. ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOULD
TAPER OFF ON THURSDAY...WITH CIGS IN THE 2500-4000 FT AGL RANGE
FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........KIECKBUSCH
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
540 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
CURRENTLY AS OF 2 PM...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED A POTENT SHORTWAVE IN WESTERN WISCONSIN AND
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...WITH ANOTHER ONE QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS NEAR
LAKE WINNIPEG. BOTH WERE DIGGING QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD COMING
DOWN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WERE ACCOMPANYING
BOTH WAVES. DRY AIR EVIDENT ON THE 27.12Z MPX AND ABR RAOBS HAVE
KEPT THE SNOW NORTH OF WISCONSIN 29. SECOND BAND OF SNOW LOCATED
IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE THERE. SOUTHERLY
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO TIGHTENING
GRADIENT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOME MINOR DRIFTING SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND ON
THE BLUFF TOPS AND OPEN AREAS OF WESTERN WISCONSIN.
THE 27.12Z MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOUTH OF WISCONSIN 29...DRY AIR WILL WIN OUT AND IT WILL
ONLY RESULT IN SOME LOWERING OF THE CLOUDS FROM 6 TO 8K FEET TO
AROUND 3K FEET. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF
WISCONSIN 29...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ACCUMULATIONS.
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...THE LAKE WINNIPEG SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MINNESOTA
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WITH THE PRIOR SATURATION FROM THE
PREVIOUS SHORT WAVE...THERE WILL SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM
A TRACE TO A COUPLE OF TENTHS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE MODELS SHOW THAT ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. DRY
AIR ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM MAY LIMIT THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS PRECIPITATION...SO KEPT THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIQUID ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. AS A RESULT DEPENDING ON THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURE...THERE MAY BE SOME FREEZING RAIN TO CONTEND WITH.
MEANWHILE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...THERE LOOKS TO BE A WINTRY MIX
OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN...AND SLEET. DUE TO THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA...WE MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ISSUING A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THE AIR MASS WILL SATURATE
ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A
QUESTION ON HOW WARM AND DEEP WILL THE WARM LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL BE. AS A RESULT...JUST WENT WITH RAIN AND SNOW FOR NOW.
FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE 27.12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
THIS LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED DURING THIS TIME. WHILE THESE
MODELS HAVE FAIRLY DECENT TRACK AGREEMENT WITH LOW MOVING JUST
EAST OF DUBUQUE TO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. WITH THIS
TRACK...SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL FAVOR
SNOW ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF WAS JUST FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COULD BE POTENTIALLY WARM ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN IN
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. AS TYPICAL WITH LOWS MOVING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES...THE MODELS ARE QUITE VARIABLE WITH WHEN
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THE ENSEMBLES SHOW
ADDITIONAL REGIONAL VARIABILITY WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.
A FEW OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE AN OPEN WAVE AND AS A
RESULT THIS SYSTEM TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND THE AREA GETS
LITTLE SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM. MEANWHILE A FEW OF THE ECMWF MODELS
ACTUALLY HAVE A MORE WOUND UP SYSTEM AND AS A RESULT...THIS
SYSTEM WOULD TRACK WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE AREA COULD
POTENTIALLY SEE MORE RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. WITH THIS
SAID...THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF QUESTIONS WHICH NEED TO BE
ANSWERED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
A LARGE AREA OF LOWER STRATUS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SLIP
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE TERMINAL SITES AND WILL OVERTAKE THEM THROUGH
00Z...WITH CONDITIONS DECREASING TO MVFR LEVELS FOR BOTH KLSE AND
KRST. THAT THICKER STUFF MAY TRY TO BREAK UP FOR A TIME AS THE
WESTERN EDGE NUDGES EAST JUST AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT
TOWARD 06-08Z. HOWEVER...SHALLOW COLDER AIR SPILLING INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THAT FRONT SHOULD HELP QUICKLY REDEVELOP MVFR CEILINGS IN
THICKER STRATUS...LIKELY TO HANG AROUND FOR MUCH (IF NOT ALL) OF
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. ONE THING TO NOTE IS THAT THERE IS SOME SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF WINDOW OF SNOW SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THAT
FRONT...ESPECIALLY FOR KLSE...THOUGH THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE TO
THE NORTH AND WEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE GUSTY
THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SWITCH NORTHWARD AND GUST 25-30 KNOTS FOR A
TIME INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ/BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...LAWRENCE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
336 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
.TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM
A CONCENTRATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO TRANSLATE THROUGH
S WI THIS EVENING....WHICH SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS TO S WI FOR THE EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE VERY MUCH...BETWEEN A FEW TENTHS TO LESS THAN ONE INCH AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED. DESPITE LOW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...THERE COULD BE SOME
DECENT BURSTS OF SNOW...WHICH COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES...DUE TO
ENHANCED MOISTENING IN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS. RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WHICH COULD LEAD
TO THESE BURSTS OF LIGHT SNOW. ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN THE SATURATION
LAYER SHOULD HELP SUPPORT THIS LIGHT SNOW AS WELL. THE HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD STAY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.
THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT QUICKLY TONIGHT NEAR
06Z...WHICH SHOULD PUT US INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ENHANCE COLD AIR
ADVECTION OVER OUR REGION... WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER
TEENS FAHRENHEIT.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE QUIET AS A CORRIDOR OF NEGATIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE...THANKS TO BACKING WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION DURING THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S. THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW RETURNING TO S WI
LATE WEDNESDAY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN LOW ONCE AGAIN FOR THAT EVENT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DROPS THROUGH REGION UNDER ULD IN LEFT EXIT
REGION OF UPPER JET BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. WARM ADVECTION WING DROPS
ACROSS CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH THE STRONGER LOW-LAYER Q-
VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CWA AROUND 06Z.
WILL TIME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE AREA WITH THE STINKIER ISENTROPIC
ADIABATIC OMEGA AND LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SHOWN ON
THE ISENTROPIC FORECASTS...WHICH ALIGN WITH THE NARROW TIME PERIOD
OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS.
MID-UPPER LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE REMAINS STRONG AHEAD OF THE
VORT MAX...BUT MID-LEVELS DRYING OUT AFTER 06Z. STILL TOP OF MOIST
LAYER TOUCHING THE -10C SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS SNOW
OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF AS FORCING WITH MID-UPPER TROUGH AXES
SHIFT EAST BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WARM ADVECTION BRINGS EVENING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S THEN
SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT.
.THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
MODELS PAINTING OUT SOME LIGHT QPF WITH SECONDARY VORT MAX SWEEPS
ACROSS WISCONSIN LATE THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. GFS AND ECMWF MORE
ROBUST WITH MOISTURE AND LIFT BUT MOISTURE IS SHALLOW ON SOUNDINGS.
WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW BUT COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES. ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S IN THE BLENDED SOLUTIONS LOOK REASONABLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
SHORT WAVE RIDGING BRINGS A DRY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. FLOWS TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL
ORIENTATION FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK TAKES
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER FRIDAY AND
LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
WARM ADVECTION PCPN LOOKS TO BRUSH THE NORTHERN CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DYNAMICALLY FORCED PCPN AS THE TROUGH
CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. CONSENSUS OF MODELS PUTS HEAVIEST
PCPN AND HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NRN WI CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW. 925 MB TEMPS IN THE WARM ADVECTION BRING FRIDAY HIGHS
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...WITH NO DROP OFF IN THE WESTERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE WAVE FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING LOWS AROUND 30.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW
MODEL DIFFERENCES ABOUND WITH TIMING/STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVES IN
THE ZONAL UPPER FLOW THAT SETS UP OVER REGION. LOOKS WARM AND DRY
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 40. THEN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS WITH SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT SETS UP OVER THE REGION. ECMWF AND CANADIAN
GEM PUT PCPN OVER NRN WI SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHILE MORE
VIGOROUS LOW IN THE GFS BRINGS A GOOD SLUG OF PCPN TO THE ENTIRE
STATE.
SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT AND LIFTING NE TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AFFECTING THE
AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE FASTER ECMWF...OR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION. LOOKS AS IF THE SE
HALF OF THE CWA WOULD SEE SOME LIQUID PCPN AT THE OUTSET...THOUGH
GFS IS A BIT COOLER THAN THE ECMWF WITH ALL SNOW MORE LIKELY. TIGHT
GRADIENT AROUND LOW WILL ASSURE WINDY CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
MAINLY MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST FOR THE TAF
SITES TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. CIG HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN 1-3
KFT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR VSBYS AS LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF BY THE LATE EVENING. WINDS
SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING FOR
BRISK AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS DUE TO INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS MOVING AWAY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI AND INTO CANADA. ANOTHER
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND WIND GUSTS APPROACHING GALE
FORCE ARE FORECAST.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...JTS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...REM
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A COMPACT
SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THIS
SHORTWAVE IS HELPING TO CREATE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
ACROSS THE REGION. THE BACK EDGE OF THE WIDESPREAD SNOW ACTIVITY
SEEMS TO BE MOVING EAST OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
HOWEVER...BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH SPOTTY FLURRIES EXTEND
INTO MINNESOTA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE
LIGHT SNOW/CLOUD TRENDS TONIGHT...THEN SNOW POTENTIAL WITH A FAST
MOVING CLIPPER ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...COMPACT SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT EASTERN WISCONSIN BY MID-
EVENING...WHICH WILL END THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW CHANCE ACROSS THE
EAST. FLURRIES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING
THOUGH. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST A FEW HOURS
LONGER...BUT BACKING FLOW AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES IN WILL CAUSE
TRAJECTORIES TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMS LOOK
MINOR...ONLY A TENTH OR TWO. OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL
SHIFT INTO THE STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM
THOUGH...SO WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT FOR CLEARING TO
OCCUR. THINK THE COMBO OF CLOUDS AND 5-8 KTS WIND SPEEDS WILL
PREVENT TEMPS FROM PLUMMETING DESPITE THE FRESH SNOW COVER. LOWS
COULD FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS IN THE COLD SPOTS OF N-C
WI...BUT MAINLY LOOKING AT LOW TO MID TEENS FOR TEMPS.
WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THINK WILL HAVE SOME SUN DURING
THE MORNING...BUT CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE LOOKS A LITTLE MORE BULLISH WITH PRECIP
POTENTIAL AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER...AND HAVE INCREASED CHANCES SOME.
COULD SEE A LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCH OVER THE FAR NORTH...AND LESS
THAN AN INCH NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND MAY CREATE MINOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING. HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS QUITE
DYNAMIC BUT SHORT ON MOISTURE. IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AN
INCH OR SO OF SNOW IN THE NORTH WITH LESS TO THE SOUTH. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY THURSDAY THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT.
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD
ALSO BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW IN THE NORTH AND
LESS ELSEWHERE. A WAVE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME
SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THOUGH THERE ARE SOME SUBSTANTIAL
MODEL DIFFERENCES.
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM STILL LOOKS LIKELY SOMETIME EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN ARCTIC HIGH RESIDES ACROSS CANADA WHILE SOUTHWEST UPPER
FLOW BRINGS WARM AND MOIST AIR NORTHWARD. THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST
A SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
WITH HEAVY SNOW OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND FREEZING
RAIN/SNOW/SLEET OR RAIN FURTHER EAST. WOULD EXPECT THE MODELS TO
COME UP WITH VARYING FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT THERE
SHOULD BE A BIG STORM SOMEWHERE OVER THE MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT
LAKES NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL STILL GENERATE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW AND
FLURRIES...WITH IFR VSBYS AT TIMES AND MVFR CIGS. THE LIGHT SNOW
WILL GRADUALLY END LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.
PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM THOUGH...SO MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS. ANY CLEARING WILL BE BRIEF ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW AND
GUSTY SW WINDS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1004 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
.UPDATE...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED LATER THIS
MORNING...AFTERNOON...AND EARLY EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST FROM MN INTO S WI. COULD BE A NICE BURST OF
SNOW AS COLUMN SATURATES IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...ACCORDING
TO THE RAP BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS. POTENTIALLY SOME REDUCTIONS
IN VISIBILITIES WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS...ALONG WITH SOME SLICK
SPOTS ON THE ROADWAYS. BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
TODAY...WITH GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20KT RANGE
POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW LEVEL STRATUS
DECK IN PLACE. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 1-3 KFT RANGE. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH COULD REDUCE VSBYS INTO MVFR
CATEGORIES AS WELL. HOWEVER...THIS ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OUT BY THE EVENING HOURS.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTIONS
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...BUT WIND GUSTS COULD REACH INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20KT RANGE WITH SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE STRATUS CLOUDS
MAY THEN DECREASE EARLY WED MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE LGT SNOW IS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SFC LOW
AND ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE MOVE ACROSS MI. BRISK WLY WINDS AND
GRADUAL COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH TEMPS HOLDING FAIRLY
STEADY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS IS EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER MN MOVES ACROSS WI. Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS NOTED WITH THIS
FEATURE AND SOUNDINGS ARE NEARLY SATURATED AROUND 700 MB AND BELOW
INCLUDING A PORTION OF THE DENDRITE ZONE. THUS EXPECT A HIGH POP AND
LOW QPF SCENARIO SO WENT WILL LIKELY POPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FOR
A PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT SNOW LINGERING INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE AND DRYING MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SCATTER OUT THE STRATUS LATE TNT AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL WI. WENT WITH A CONSENSUS WITH LOW TEMPS TNT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVER LATE AND LESSER WINDS. LOWS IN THE TEENS
ARE FORECAST.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS A
700MB TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 26.00Z NAM/GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION BETWEEN 700-500MB...BUT A DRY LAYER
BELOW IT WHICH SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FURTHER NORTH
NEAR THE SURFACE LOW WHERE THE LIFT IS A BIT STRONGER IN THE LOW
LEVELS. IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...LEFT A SMALL CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW IN THERE AS THE LOW LEVELS TRY TO SATURATE AS A
TRAILING INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FOLLOWS THE LOW.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIVE DOWN FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WHILE THIS LOW LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
GETS A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PROVIDES
DEEP ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION...PARTICULARLY IN
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE WARM LAYER SHOULD BE INCREASING INTO THE
+2C TO +4C RANGE...SO THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW THAT CHANGES
OVER TO RAIN AS THE COLUMN SATURATES AND THE LAYER WARMS.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW
WITH THE BUSY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING...THERE APPEARS TO
BE A NUMBER OF ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THAT
APPROACH THE REGION GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH TIME AND
INCREASING CONFIDENCE...WILL BE ABLE TO GET SOME BETTER
TIMING/DETAILS ON THESE SYSTEMS INSTEAD OF THE BLANKET CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR EACH DAY.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...LIGHT SNOW WILL MOSTLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING
WITH VSBYS RETURNING TO P6SM BUT WITH CIGS CONTINUING FROM 1-3 KFT.
SNOW WILL THEN REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY LINGERING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS AN UPPER TROUGH PASSES. THE CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 1-3 KFT WHILE VSBYS WILL RANGE FROM 2-5SM
WITH THE SNOW. THE STRATUS CLOUDS MAY THEN DECREASE EARLY WED
MORNING.
MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING FOR
BRISK AND GUSTY WLY WINDS DUE TO INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
MOVING AWAY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI AND INTO CANADA. ANOTHER SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FROM WED AFT INTO THU MORNING
AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND WIND GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE ARE
FORECAST.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTS
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1132 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
WELL..WE HAD TO WAIT A WHILE IN SOME AREAS BUT THE FORCING IS
FINALLY HITTING US WITH A RAPID INCREASE IN WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA.
THE LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS /800MB/ HAS BEEN WORKING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA FROM AUSTIN MN TO WABASHA TO TREMPEALEAU
COUNTY FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SUPERCOOLED
LIQUID CLOUD. THIS WAS THE INTENT OF THE ADVISORY...BUT THE LIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THAT FGEN AREA HAS BEEN TOO LITTLE TO GROW THE
CLOUD DROPS TO DRIZZLE SIZE TO FALL. THUS...THE ADVISORY START
TIME WAS TOO EARLY EAST AND SOUTH OF LA CROSSE. OVERALL THERE IS
SURPRISINGLY LITTLE TRAVEL IMPACT IN THE FZDZ AREA WITH MAIN
ROADS IN NORMAL DRIVING CONDITION PER DOT DUE TO TREATMENTS.
SHERIFFS ARE REPORTING GLAZING ON OTHER SURFACES LIKE VEHICLES.
STARTING TO SEE GOOD CLOUD TOP COOLING IN NORTHERN IA VIA GOES IR
AS WELL AS KDVN RADAR LIGHTING UP WITH DRIZZLE OVER THE PAST HOUR
OR SO. THIS IS SHIFTING INTO SOUTHWESTERN WI. CORRELATION
COEFFICIENTS ARE NEAR 1 AND SHOW THE DRIZZLE WELL...SAME AS SIGNAL
AS FZDZ TO THE NW OF KLSE. CLOUD TOP COOLING REGION IN NORTHERN IA
IS DEEPER ICE AND SNOW IS BEING OBSERVED THERE...SOMETHING A
CONSENSUS OF SHORT TERM MODELS NAILED HOURS AGO. AT THAT TIME...WE
HAD ADJUSTED THE SNOW FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT AXIS FROM ABOUT
KCCY-KLSE. THIS AXIS IS A DEVELOPING SECOND FRONTOGENESIS AREA
/600-800MB/ THAT WILL TEND TO TAKE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS
IT SHIFTS INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI PER 25.19Z RAP GUIDANCE AND OBS.
SO...WE SHOULD SEE THE CURRENT BAND SHIFT NORTHEAST TO KLSE...THEN
TOWARD KISW. IT SHIFTS QUICKLY...IT SEEMS OUTLIER /HIGHER/ SNOW
TOTALS ARE NOT SUPPORTED. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THAT
MAX SNOW AXIS. OVERALL THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS STILL ON A 2-3 INCH
SNOW FROM NERN IA INTO CENTRAL WI.
WHILE OUR FORECAST MESSAGE REMAINS A CHANGE TO SNOW...WE COULD SEE
FZDZ CONTINUE AWAY FROM THIS BAND FOR 2-3 HOURS YET UNTIL MAIN
UPPER LOW COMES IN. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE NOW KICKING
IN PER POTENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND QG FORCING...AND DEEP
SATURATION COULD JUST OCCUR THROUGH THE LAYER TOO. SO...WILL
CONTINUING THE MESSAGE OF FZDZ/SNOW TO ALL SNOW IS APPROPRIATE.
CONTINUED THE DRIFTING SNOW FORECAST IN THE POST-LOW ENVIRONMENT
OVERNIGHT. ALSO...HAVE LINGERED FLURRIES THROUGH THE MORNING ON
TUESDAY WITH TROUGH OVERHEAD AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES I THE LOW-
LEVELS. THINKING BOUNDARY LAYER ROLLS WILL ALLOW FOR ON/OFF LIGHT
SNOW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN WEDNESDAY WITH A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IN NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. TIMING SEEMS TO
BE AN ISSUE WITH THE 25.12Z ECMWF SUGGESTING ABOUT A 6 HOUR FASTER
SOLUTION THAN THE U.S. MODELS AND A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
WAVE. OVERALL...MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS/LIFT MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
WI...BUT WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THE 300-500MB QG CONVERGENCE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL WI...HAVE
INCREASED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THERE A BIT. IT LOOKS LIKE A
QUICK HITTER INCH OR LESS IF IT PRECIPITATES. THERE IS SUGGESTION
OF MORE ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND WILL NEED
TO WATCH THIS OVER THE COMING DAYS FOR SNOW CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH.
TRANSITION BEGINS LATE IN THE WEEK TOWARD MORE ZONAL FLOW AND THEN
LARGE SCALE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS IS
MAKING FOR A LOW PREDICTABILITY PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. STUCK WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS UNTIL A
BETTER TARGET CAN BE SEEN. OVERALL...AN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW WAS BEGINNING TO WORK INTO SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND EXPECT THAT THIS WILL MAKE IT THROUGH KRST AROUND
09Z AND KLSE AROUND 12Z. UNTIL IT DOES...THE VISIBILITY SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE AND THEN GO UP TO VFR WITH SOME FLURRIES.
NOT EXPECTING THE CEILINGS TO MOVE MUCH THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
KLSE SHOULD STAY MVFR WITH KRST STARTING OUT IFR AND THEN COMING
UP TO MVFR LATE TUESDAY MORNING OR EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
WINDS HAVE ALREADY COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS. AS THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN UP OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
DEVELOP AT BOTH SITES AND CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF TUESDAY. HAVE
NOT INCLUDED AN BLOWING SNOW AT KRST AS ACCUMULATIONS WERE PRETTY
LIGHT AND LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY PROLONGED PERIODS OF
VISIBILITY REDUCTION.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ079-
086>088-094>096.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR IAZ008>011-
018-019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1044 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
AND NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
EXTENDED THE ADVISORY UNTIL 15Z/TUES IN PARTS OF C/EC/NE WI.
NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW LIFT IN THE 900-800 MB LAYER LINGERING OVER THIS
AREA THROUGH ABOUT MID-MORNING...SO LIGHT SNOW WITH 1-2SM VSBYS
WILL LIKELY STILL BE OCCURRING. ROAD CONDITIONS MAY ALSO BE POOR
ON SECONDARY ROADS...GIVEN THAT 4-6 INCHES WILL HAVE FALLEN OVER
MUCH OF THIS AREA. NW WINDS WILL ALSO BE PICKING UP A BIT...WITH
GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 MPH PERHAPS CAUSING A BIT OF DRIFTING. MAIN
CONCERN IS THAT HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY STILL BE OCCURRING
DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.
ALSO CONSIDERED CANCELLING THE ADVISORY FOR VILAS AND ONEIDA
COUNTIES...BUT VSBYS HAVE DROPPED TO 1-2SM IN SNOW...SO WILL LET
IT RIDE...EVEN THOUGH SNOW TOTALS WILL LIKELY NOT TOP 2 INCHES
THERE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 907 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WAS ONGOING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...AND AMOUNTS AS
HIGH AS 4 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN WAUSHARA COUNTY. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW...WITH SNOWFALL RATES EXCEEDING AN INCH AN HOUR...
SHOULD EXIT NE/EC WI BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT A SECONDARY VORT
MAX WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER INCH OR TWO TO THIS REGION OVERNIGHT.
HAVE BUMPED SNOWFALL TOTALS TO 4-6 INCHES FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM WAUTOMA TO SHAWANO TO MARINETTE...WITH AMOUNTS DROPPING
OFF TO 2-3 INCHES OVER MUCH OF NC/FAR NE WI. NO CHANGES TO THE
HEADLINES NOW...THOUGH GIVING SOME CONSIDERATION TO EXTENDING THE
EXPIRATION TIME TO INCLUDE THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR WORK/SCHOOL.
WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE NEW MODEL DATA AND SEE IF THIS CHANGE IS
WARRANTED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
PCPN IS FILLING IN RAPIDLY AND SPREADING INTO OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...IN RESPONSE TO THE POTENT NEGATIVELY-TILTED S/W
TROF LIFTING OUT OF NORTHERN IL. MOST PLACES APPEAR TO BE GETTING
AN HOUR OR SO OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AT ONSET BEFORE DEEP SATURATION
AND A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OCCURS. NORTHERN WI MAY STILL HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS BEFORE
COMPLETELY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW...SO THEY WILL LIKELY SEE A LIGHT
GLAZING OF ICE INTO THE EVENING. RADAR/SATL AND MESO-MODELS ALL
SUPPORT THE HEAVIEST SNOW MOVG THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE
FCST AREA (ROUGHLY SE OF A LINE FROM MNM-Y50) THROUGH MIDNIGHT...
WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW LIKELY IN THIS REGION.
SUSPECT WE`LL SEE SOME INCH AN HOUR SNOWFALL RATES IN THE FOX
VALLEY/LKSHR AREAS DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING. FARTHER
NORTHWEST...SNOW INTENSITY SHOULD NOT BE AS GREAT...BUT LIGHT
ICING FOLLOWED BY 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS STILL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
THE ADVISORY. WILL LIKELY SEE WIDESPREAD 3-4 INCH TOTALS IN THE
FOX VALLEY/LKSHR AREAS...WITH LOCAL 5 INCH AMOUNTS...BEFORE
THE SNOW TAPERS OFF TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TURNING NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHILE ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS SITUATED
FROM SOUTHWEST TO EAST-CENTRAL WI. NORTH OF THIS LATTER TROUGH...IN
A REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AROUND 850MB...A SWATH OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE FOX VALLEY AND ACROSS
CENTRAL WI. NO REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ON THE ROADWAYS
HOWEVER...AND INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT SLICK SPOTS REMAIN CONFINED
TO UNTREATED SURFACES. STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISSUES RELATED TO
FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FOX VALLEY. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW CONTINUED GROWTH OF THE LOW
LEVEL SATURATED LAYER. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING AS A
RESULT...BUT PLACE HEAVIER EMPHASIS ON THE SNOWFALL ARRIVING
TONIGHT. THE SNOW IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER IOWA AS
INDICATED BY THE STRENGTHENING RADAR RETURNS. AS THE LOW OVER
MISSOURI CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST TONIGHT...THE MAIN FOCUS
REMAINS ON IMPACTS FROM THE ANTICIPATED SNOWFALL.
TONIGHT...MODELS AGREE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM
THE QUAD CITIES TO LAKE HURON TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE LOW...MODERATE
QG FORCING ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL BRING AN INTENSIFYING AREA
OF SNOW NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE. THE
SYSTEM HAS SEVERAL THINGS GOING FOR IT...INCLUDING STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7 C/KM OVER EAST-CENTRAL WI...AND VERY GOOD
UPWARD MOTION IN A RELATIVELY SHALLOW DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
ALTHOUGH THE COLUMN WILL HAVE A NEAR ISOTHERMAL LAYER BETWEEN -5C
AND 0C AT THE START OF THE EVENING...A COOLING THERMAL PROFILE THIS
EVENING SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS AS THE MAIN
BRUNT OF THE STORM ARRIVES. THE MESO MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
TIMING SOME...BRINGING THE MAIN AREA OF SNOWFALL BETWEEN 0-3Z OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI...AND BETWEEN 03-06Z OVER FAR NORTHERN WI.
THE BEST FORCING/MOISTURE/INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE FROM CENTRAL
TO NE WI WHERE WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 2-5 INCHES LOOKS POSSIBLE.
LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH...IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE.
ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL LATE THIS EVENING...LIGHT SNOW
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING...THOUGH WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT LATE INTO
THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.
TUESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING...BUT THE COMMA HEAD
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWLY ROTATING ACROSS THE REGION. PROGGED
SOUNDINGS LOOK NEARLY SATURATED THROUGH THE COLUMN FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING...SO THINK LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE...AND WILL
INCREASE CHANCES. ANY ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
AMOUNTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE VILAS COUNTY SNOW BELT WHERE
TRAJECTORIES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT. THE SNOW WILL
EXIT MOST PLACES DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR THE SNOW BELT.
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. A COUPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH LACK OF
MOISTURE SHOULD MAKE FOR MODEST AMOUNTS. PROBABLY AN INCH OR TWO IN
THE FAR NORTH WITH AN INCH OR LESS FURTHER SOUTH.
ZONAL FLOW FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LOW APPROACHES
FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AS THAT SYSTEM APPROACHES UPPER FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHWEST AND MOISTURE STARTS TO TRANSPORT NORTH TOWARDS
THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. AN ARCTIC HIGH OVER MUCH OF CANADA
SHOULD PROVIDE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR OVER WISCONSIN MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE DIFFERENCES IN WHAT HAPPENS NEXT WITH A
WINTER STORM POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES OR
MIDWEST. PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES ARE LIKELY AS WELL AS TIMING
DIFFERENCES AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS
MAY OCCUR NORTHEAST OF GRB FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TUESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING
FOR SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS. NW WINDS WILL PICK UP
AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH
GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KTS EXPECTED.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ022-031-
036>040-045-048>050-073-074.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ005-
010>013-018>021-030-035.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........KIECKBUSCH
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
417 AM EST THU JAN 28 2016
.DISCUSSION...
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME, WE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WATCHING
THE EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO, AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF, ALONG THE STALLED OUT
BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRST AFFECT
THE WEST COAST AND NORTHWEST INTERIOR THIS AM. THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THIS LINE, NOW MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS OFF MAINLAND MONROE,
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY, AS IT MOVES INTO BROWARD AND
MIAMI- DADE LATER THIS MORNING. THIS LINE COULD INTENSIFY AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE PENINSULA TOWARDS BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE. 0-1 KM HELICITY AGAIN
SUPPORTS ROTATION AND POSSIBLE SPINUPS/ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS/TORNADOES
AS ACTIVITY CROSSES THE WEST COAST THIS AM AND MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE PENINSULA.
SHRTWV AND 140KT JET CROSSING FL LATER TODAY WILL FINALLY PUSH
THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTH FL THIS EVENING. LATER TODAY, MODELS HAVE
SLOWED DOWN ARRIVAL OF COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH FL. THIS WILL GIVE
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING AND
INCREASED INSTABILITY. WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL AND
VEERING NEAR THE SURFACE, LLVL HELICITY WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT.
STILL THOUGH, ENOUGH TURNING IS LEFT IN THE WIND PROFILE FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO WITHIN THE MAIN SQUALL LINE WITH THE FRONT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT AN AREA OF DAMAGING WINDS
WITHIN THE LINE CONSIDERING 40 KT LLVL JET/0-6KM SHEAR OF 45 M/S
IN THE MIA RAP SOUNDING FOR LATE THIS PM. AS USUAL, MITIGATING
FACTOR IN ALL OF THIS IS HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS THIS MORNING ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTH FL WITH SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF. SPC HAS
CONTINUED THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SOUTH FL. VERY WELL COULD BE
ANOTHER ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER DOES HAVE 25-30
KT GUSTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. WIND GUSTS MAY BE NEAR
ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY WITH BREAKS/THINNING OF THE
CLOUD COVER.
NOT TO BE LOST IN ALL OF THIS, IS ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH
CAN LEAD TO PERHAPS MORE WIDESPREAD URBAN STREET FLOODING TODAY.
HEFTY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM YESTERDAY, 4-6" IN SOME SPOTS AND
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS PWATS/SPECIFIC HUMIDITY/WV MOISTURE TRANSPORT,
NECESSITATES A FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF THE CWA. FOR NOW, MIAMI-
DADE WILL BE LEFT OUT OF THE WATCH, CONSIDERING LOWER TOTALS
YESTERDAY. BUT A SLOW MOVING LINE OF HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
REASON ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE WATCH FURTHER SOUTH LATER TODAY.
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COULD PUT THE NORTHWEST
INTERIOR AND COLLIER COUNTIES INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE STATE FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPS REBOUND QUICKLY ON SUNDAY WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING ALONG EXTREME SOUTH FL BY MONDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS COMING
NORTH FROM THE KEYS. NEXT FRONT PROGGED FOR THE MIDDLE OR END OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE EC AND THE GFS
REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF RIDGING OVER SOUTH FL, LEADS TO
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT AND THE
DEPTH OF COOLER AIR BEHIND IT.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND
GULF WATERS TODAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS AND WINDS. SEAS WILL
BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF WITH HAZARDOUS SEAS
TO NEAR 7 FEET POSSIBLE THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES TO FINISH
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 80 58 72 48 / 90 60 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 57 72 52 / 80 70 10 0
MIAMI 81 61 72 52 / 80 70 10 0
NAPLES 75 56 68 46 / 90 40 10 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ067-068-071-072-168-172.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ063-066-069-070.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-670-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
324 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016
Clipper system noted on 08z/2am water vapor imagery over Lake
Superior will continue to track eastward today, remaining well to
the northeast of central Illinois. Meanwhile, low clouds in the
wake of the system extending back into the eastern Dakotas will
begin to sink southward. NAM RH profiles appear to be a bit too
aggressive with the southward push, so have trended toward the
slower GFS. Based on current satellite trends and GFS forecast,
have started the day mostly sunny across the board, followed by
increasing clouds from north to south during the late morning into
the afternoon. By the end of the day, skies will be mostly cloudy
across the entire KILX CWA. NAM hints at some light precip skirting
the far NE this afternoon as a trailing trough axis swings through
the area. HRRR is even more bullish, with the latest run showing
precip extending as far west as the I-55 corridor. Think this is
way overdone, so will disregard the HRRR solution. Will however
mention a chance for flurries/sprinkles along/northeast of a
Champaign to Paris line.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016
Substantial warm-up is still on tap for this weekend as zonal flow
pattern develops across the CONUS and a Pacific-origin airmass
arrives. High temperatures on Friday will be in the lower 40s, then
will climb well into the 50s for both Saturday and Sunday. An
approaching frontal boundary will spread clouds and perhaps a few
rain showers into the area on Sunday: however, weak upper support
and a lack of deep-layer moisture warrants only low chance PoPs.
Big weather story continues to be the development of a major winter
storm early next week. 00z Jan 28 models are in excellent agreement
with the track/timing of this system, and the thermal profiles of
the individual models have also come into better agreement.
GFS/ECMWF/GEM all show surface low pressure developing over the
Texas panhandle Monday evening...then tracking northeastward into
northwest Illinois by Tuesday evening. This particular track will
keep the KILX CWA in the warm sector of the system and lead to
mainly a rain event. Earlier concerns about a potential period of
freezing rain Monday night have been eased with the latest model
run, as surface temps are expected to remain above freezing and the
elevated warm layer achieves max temps of 5-8C by 12z Tue. Have
therefore gone with likely PoPs for rain everywhere Monday night
into Tuesday. With warm/moist air surging northward ahead of the
approaching system, some fairly impressive instability will develop
across the central/eastern CWA Tuesday afternoon. GFS SbCAPEs reach
600-800J/kg while lifted index values drop into the -3 to -5C range.
In addition, 0-6km bulk shear increases to 70-80kt as a strong mid-
level jet develops in advance of the short-wave trough. Given such
strong mid-winter parameters, have added a chance for thunderstorms
to the forecast east of the I-55 corridor on Tuesday.
Both the GFS and ECMWF show the dry slot of the system arriving late
Tuesday afternoon/evening, leading to the end of the significant
precipitation. Based on current projections, it appears rainfall
amounts Monday night through Tuesday will range from 1 to 1.50. As
the low lifts into the Great Lakes, colder air will arrive Tuesday
night and deformation zone precip will arrive from the west.
Thermal profiles are initially warm enough to support rain early
in the evening, but then cool sufficiently for snow Tuesday night
into Wednesday. While the vast majority of the snow will fall
west of the Mississippi River across Iowa/Wisconsin, some light
snow accumulation will be possible across the western half of the
CWA as the precip departs and comes to an end on Wednesday. In
addition, strong winds gusting to at least 30mph and temperatures
falling into the 20s and 30s will make Wednesday a blustery/cold
day.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
VFR conditions are expected to hold across the area into the mid
morning hours of Thursday as a weak frontal boundary/surface trof
shifts southeast across the area. Behind the weak front, we look
for another band of MVFR cigs to shift southeast into the TAF area
Thursday morning at PIA and BMI in the 14z-16z time frame, and
from 16z-18z at SPI,DEC and CMI. Bases of the lower cigs will
range from 1500 to 2500 feet with forecast soundings not showing
much if any improvement thru this forecast period. Surface winds
will begin to veer more into a southwest direction overnight with
speeds of 12 to 17 kts and then shift into a west to northwest
direction Thursday morning as the weak frontal system moves through.
Wind speeds will range from 12 to 17 kts with a few gusts around
23 kts at times.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1119 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 834 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
Another fast moving clipper passing well to our north this
evening keeping the more significant precip away from central
Illinois. The latest surface map was showing a trof/wind shift
line over central Iowa which was tracking east towards our area.
Other than some scattered to broken mid level clouds, not much
in the way of sensible weather noted out to our west. The gusty
southerly winds tonight should help keep temperatures on the
mild side for late January before the surface trof shifts through
our area overnight. Have made some minor adjustments to the winds
and evening temperatures, with the rest of the forecast looking
good. Update already sent.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
Most of the earlier stratocumulus has faded early this afternoon,
with the lingering clouds over east central Illinois showing more of
a diurnal appearance. Mid level clouds quickly streaming toward us
from the northwest, ahead of a trough/warm front the clipper that
will track across the Great Lakes tonight. Temperatures are well
into the 30s this afternoon and were close to 40 in areas west of
Springfield.
Main impact from the trough/front will be with the winds, as its
passage will otherwise only bring clouds with it. Tightening
pressure gradient will cause a period of gusty southwest winds
beginning late afternoon northwest of the Illinois River, and
spreading south of I-70 by early evening. HRRR guidance seems too
high with a period of 40-45 mph gusts this evening, but the LAMP
guidance closer to 25 mph seems more reasonable. Winds will lighten
up a bit overnight as the main trough axis crosses the area.
Temperatures should remain fairly steady in the evening, before
falling off to around 30 degrees in most areas late night.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
Another clipper system near the northern MN and sw Ontario border
will track across the Great Lakes region Thu and drive a frontal
boundary/trof east across IL by Thu afternoon. Added small chances
of light snow or flurries to ne CWA Thu afternoon and also increased
the cloud cover during Thu especially by late morning and afternoon.
Highs Thu in upper 30s to near 40F from I-74 north and lower 40s
south with Lawrenceville near 45F. WSW winds at dawn Thu to veer WNW
Thu afternoon at 10-15 mph and gusts 17-24 mph so a bit breezy Thu.
Weak surface high pressure ridge of 1017 mb moves east from the
Great Plains into IL by dawn Friday and decrease the winds Thu night.
Lows mostly in the mid 20s Thu night, with some upper 20s se of I-
70. High pressure shifts east of IL during Friday with increasing
southerly flow and its back side and a bit milder highs in the low
to mid 40s, mildest from Springfield sw. Partly to mostly sunny
skies Friday with weak upper level ridging into IL by Fri afternoon.
Upper level flow becomes more zonal late this week with milder
Pacific air moving into IL this weekend. SW winds Sat brings highs
to near 50F from I-74 north and mid 50s south of I-70 and sw of
Springfield. Highs mostly in the 50s on Sunday ranging from around
50F nw of IL river to upper 50s in southeast IL. Low pressure
passing north of Lake Superior Saturday to increase clouds northern
CWA while southeast IL enjoys more sunshine through the day Saturday.
More active weather pattern takes shape Sunday-Wednesday as IL gets
established in a sw upper level flow with upper level trof digging
over the Rockies and upper level ridging building near the Atlantic
coast. Above normal temps through Tue then cooling closer to normal
next Wed. Low pressure near the western KS/OK border by sunset Sat
to eject ne into the western Great Lakes by sunset Sunday and pull a
frontal boundary se into central IL Sunday afternoon. This to bring
1st chance of light rain showers and lingering Sunday night
especially over ne and eastern IL Sunday evening. Could see a mix of
precipitation along and north of a Rushville to Bloomington line
after midnight Sunday night but little or no snow accumuation. Still
looks like a lull in rain chances Monday with mainly slight chances
as stronger surface low pressure gets organized over north Texas.
Models bring strong low pressure ne into west central or nw IL Tue
evening and into the western Great Lakes Wed. Central and southeast
IL appear to be mostly in the warm sector with mostly rain chances,
starting to increase from sw to ne during Monday night, with likely
chances Tue and Tue night. A few thunderstorms possible Tue south of
highway 50 in southern IL. Colder air beginning to move in during
Tue night especially after midnight Tue night and Wed to change rain
to snow nw CWA with some accumulations possible mainly nw of the IL
river. Most of area will see a good chance of light snow on Wed as
colder air continues to usher into the area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
VFR conditions are expected to hold across the area into the mid
morning hours of Thursday as a weak frontal boundary/surface trof
shifts southeast across the area. Behind the weak front, we look
for another band of MVFR cigs to shift southeast into the TAF area
Thursday morning at PIA and BMI in the 14z-16z time frame, and
from 16z-18z at SPI,DEC and CMI. Bases of the lower cigs will
range from 1500 to 2500 feet with forecast soundings not showing
much if any improvement thru this forecast period. Surface winds
will begin to veer more into a southwest direction overnight with
speeds of 12 to 17 kts and then shift into a west to northwest
direction Thursday morning as the weak frontal system moves through.
Wind speeds will range from 12 to 17 kts with a few gusts around
23 kts at times.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
225 AM MST THU JAN 28 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST THU JAN 28 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW RIDING ACROSS
THE WESTERN US EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST CANADA. NW FLOW IS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ALONG THE
COLORADO/KANSAS STATE LINE WITH WEAK LEE TROUGH JUST WEST OF OUR CWA.
TODAY-SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS
EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TOWARDS A QUASI-ZONAL WESTERLY PATTERN WITH
THE MAIN STORM TRACK NORTH OF OUR CWA AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AROUND 60...POSSIBLY MID 60S OVER PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. BY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL KICK A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS OUR CWA
WHICH COULD HELP INCREASE WINDS AND COMPLICATE HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. SINCE CAA IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH THIS HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN US
HEIGHTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE NORTHERN STORM
TRACK WILL SHIFT BACK TOWARDS OUR CWA. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH OVER OUR REGION AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BEHIND THIS
FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION TO SUPPORT
POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW FROM I-70 NORTH. STRONGEST PRECIP SIGNAL/BEST
MEASURABLE CHANCES APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE NEBRASKA STATE LINE.
PRECIP WOULD BE LIGHT IN NATURE WITH ON A DUSTING OF SNOW POSSIBLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST THU JAN 28 2016
WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED
TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MONDAY. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW SHOULD BE OVER IOWA.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE MONDAY AND
THEN SHIFT EAST INTO EASTERN KANSAS TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE NEXT SYSTEM ACROSS THE SAME GENERAL
TRACK THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. HOWEVER THE GFS HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHICH ARE SUSPECT. THE RIDGE EAST OF
THE LOW IS LOW AMPLITUDE WHICH SHOULD ALLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION
RATHER THAN NORTHEAST MOVEMENT AS IT AFFECTS THE FA. BOTH MODELS
SHOW GOOD MOISTURE WITH NO DRY SLOT CUTTING OFF SNOW PRODUCTION.
SINCE THE SYSTEM IS STILL NOT ONSHORE WILL HOLD OFF MAKING ANY BOLD
PREDICTIONS. THE MAIN SNOW EVENT SHOULD BEGIN OVER MOST OF THE FA
MONDAY AND THEN TAPER OFF TUESDAY EVENING. FOR NOW...WINDS ON TUESDAY
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL GO INTO A COOLING TREND WITH 40 TO 46 SUNDAY
COOLING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MIN
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 20S
WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 920 PM MST WED JAN 27 2016
FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS GENERALLY FROM
THE WEST NEAR 10KTS FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 16Z BEFORE VEERING
TO THE NORTHWEST AND GUSTING NEAR 20KTS FROM 17Z-23Z. FROM 00Z
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WINDS BACK TO THE WEST AND
DECREASE IN SPEED TOWARD 6KTS. ANY CLOUDINESS GENERALLY AT THE
CIRRUS LEVEL...EXCEPTION WOULD BE AT KMCK WHERE SOME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1249 AM EST THU JAN 28 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1248 AM EST THU JAN 28 2016
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A FEW AREAS OF FOG...THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT
WILL BE THE DIURNAL TEMPS AND MATCHING THE RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT
BLACK ICE FROM MELTING SNOW AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE TEENS IN THE
VALLEYS. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND WILL ONLY UPDATE THE GRIDS. A NEW
ZFP WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST MAINLY TO ADD A TOUCH OF FOG
OVER THE DEEPER SNOWPACK AS SEEN IN THE LATEST HRRR AND RUC13.
ALSO FINE TUNED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. ALSO
UPDATED THE HWO TO ADDRESS THE ONGOING BLACK ICE SITUATION AROUND
THE CWA ALONG WITH ISSUING AN SPS THROUGH 9 AM FOR THE SAME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 755 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SQUEEZING
THROUGH KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. THIS HAS TEMPORARILY CLEARED THE
SKIES AND COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A MODERATE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. CURRENTLY READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 20S IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS TO NEAR 30 ON THE RIDGES AND IN THE MORE OPEN TERRAIN.
DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS THE
REGION. THE SNOWPACK REMAINS AN ISSUE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ADDING
TO THE CHALLENGE FOR TEMPERATURE FORECASTING OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION...THE AREAS WHERE IT IS STILL THICK ENOUGH WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LOCAL FOG FORMATION AFTER
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
RULE WITH REFREEZING ON AREA ROADS AN ONGOING CONCERN THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S
IN MOST PLACES. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THESE
TEMPERATURE AND SKY COVER ISSUES...ALONG WITH INCORPORATING THE
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS IN THE NEAR TERM. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
LOW STRATUS HAS MIXED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S FOR ALL BUT A FEW OF THE HIGHEST
RIDGES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING...KEEPING
WINDS LIGHT AND PROVIDING FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOME OF THE LOWER VALLEYS TONIGHT AS DRAINAGE/DOWN
VALLEY FLOWS COMMENCE. THIS THREAT WILL SHIFT EAST IN CONJUNCTION
WITH DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGING ALLOWING LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO
RETURN.
THE BRUNT IF NOT ALL OF THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY DESPITE THE
PASSAGE OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. FORCING FROM THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY
REMAIN TOO FAR NORTH TO PROVIDE FOR MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN MID-
HIGH CLOUDS AS A FORMIDABLE DRY WEDGE OF AIR REMAINS IN PLACE
BETWEEN A SHALLOW SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AND 10000-12000 FEET.
A SECOND WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...THIS
TIME WITH A GREATER AMOUNT OF LIFT MAKING IT MUCH FARTHER SOUTH
INTO THE COMMONWEALTH. TEMPERATURES MAKING IT INTO THE 40S
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD PROMOTE MAINLY RAIN/SPRINKLES AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY EVENING...BUT COLUMN COOLING AND
WET-BULBING SHOULD PROMOTE A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES BY MID EVENING. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...WITH PERHAPS UP TO HALF AN INCH FALLING ACROSS THE HIGHER
RIDGES NEAR THE VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA STATE LINES.
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY SPELL AREAS OF LOW STRATUS INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WITH FOG A LOWER POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 5-10 MPH WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
ZONAL FLOW WILL RULE THE CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE
THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES ONCE AGAIN INTO THE EARLY AND MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...BUT DETAILS ON THE EVOLVING LONG WAVE
PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK ARE STILL ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY. AS SUCH...CONTINUED TO STICK CLOSE TO THE BLENDED
GUIDANCE.
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS RECOVER ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE
COOLER ON FRIDAY...WITH UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 COMMON. THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL QUICKLY SCOOT OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
FOR A GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES IN
RETURN FLOW. THE COOLER VALLEYS WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE LOWER
20S...WHILE RIDGES STAY UP IN THE LOWER 30S.
WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE THE MAIN STORY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...AS HIGHS RETURN WELL INTO THE 50S...WITH A FEW 60S
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY LATE SUNDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE EXTENT OF IMPACT FROM THIS ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MONDAY. THE GFS REMAINS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND THE PRECIP INTO OUR AREA...WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS KEPT THE BOUNDARY FROM COMING MUCH FURTHER SOUTHEAST
THAN THE OHIO RIVER. AGAIN...STUCK CLOSE TO A BLEND...KEEPING A
GRADIENT OF HIGHER POPS IN THE NORTHWEST AND LESS IN THE
SOUTHEAST FOR NOW. POPS REALLY RAMP UP TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS
A STRONG SYSTEM GENS UP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PIVOTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...REACHING THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY. THE
BEST CHANCE POPS LOOK TO BE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BLENDED
GUIDANCE OFFERING LIKELY POPS. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S TUESDAY...TO THE 40S AND 50S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM EST THU JAN 28 2016
AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP EASTERN
KENTUCKY UNDER CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD ALONG WITH LEFTOVER SNOWPACK AND CALM WINDS
MAY CREATE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION
FOR THIS WILL BE SJS WITH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER SNOW. LOCAL EFFECTS
MAY ALSO LEAVE FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AT SME AS WELL. FOR THE
MOST PART THOUGH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ENGAGE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. CLOUDS COVER WILL ALSO BE ON
THE INCREASE WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL CIGS BY THE END OF THE DAY.
EXPECT SOME MVFR AND EVEN IFR CIGS AFTER 00Z AS THE IMPACTS FROM
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
101 AM EST THU JAN 28 2016
.UPDATE...
QUICK LATE NIGHT UPDATE TO ADD POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING.
SATELLITE TRENDS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE SHOW CLOUD
TOPS HAVE WARMED TO BETWEEN -10 AND -13C. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WARM AS MID-LEVEL DRY SLOW EXTENDING BACK THROUGH WISCONSIN WORKS
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...STRIPPING ICE NUCLEI OUT OF
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS OF
CEILINGS HEIGHTS SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
OCCURRING. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
FROM PTK NORTH...PER GUIDANCE FROM 00Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WILL
MONITOR UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS (WHICH DO SHOW A DRIZZLE SIGNATURE)
AND REPORTS FOR COVERAGE. SOME SLICK SPOTS MAY DEVELOP ON AREA
ROADWAYS WITH THE FREEZING DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE ROADS ARE
DRY AND UNCOVERED WITH THE DUSTING OF SNOW MAY LOCATIONS NORTH OF
FNT RECEIVED EARLIER.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1202 AM EST THU JAN 28 2016
STRONG LOW PRESSURE EXITING LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SWEEP MID LEVEL
MOISTURE OUT OF SE MICHIGAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND MAINTAIN A
GUSTY WIND FIELD THROUGH THE NIGHT. A WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
MIDWEST WILL THEN BRING A SWAP IN THE VERTICAL MOISTURE DISTRIBUTION
AS THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WORKS OVER THE REGION WHILE DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS IS REPLACED BY A FIELD OF STRATUS. THIS HAS SET THE STAGE
FOR CONSIDERABLE COVERAGE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL SOUTHWARD EXTENT STILL TO BE
DETERMINED. PLAN TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONS FOR SIGNS OF IT REACHING AS
FAR SOUTH AS MBS. TERMINALS TO THE SOUTH FROM PTK THROUGH THE DTW
CORRIDOR WILL JUST EXPERIENCE A RETURN TO MVFR CEILING FOR NOW WITH
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TIMING THROUGH THE NIGHT THEN LASTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THURSDAY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH IT AND FOR A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE.
FOR DTW... A FLURRY OR BRIEF SNOW SHOWER WILL EXIT QUICKLY EASTWARD
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. VFR WILL BE REPLACED BY MVFR CEILING LATER
IN THE NIGHT WHILE GUSTY WIND PERSISTS THROUGHOUT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON AND MOVES THROUGH DTW EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CIGS BLO 5KFT AFTER 10Z LASTING THROUGH THE DAY.
* HIGH FOR PTYPE AS SNOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 928 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
UPDATE...
SATELLITE PRESENTATION INDICATES A POWERFUL SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE EVENING. THIS SYSTEM
IS RESPONSIBLE FOR DRAWING A PLUME OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR THROUGH
THE MID LEVELS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS SHALLOW
BUT ADEQUATE FOR A BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ON RADAR THAT WILL
BATTLE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE 00Z APX
SOUNDING IS A GOOD DEPICTION OF THE PARTIAL SATURATION EXPECTED TO
OCCUR FROM THE FORMIDABLE STARTING POINT SHOWN IN THE DTX
SOUNDING. MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP AND NAM INDICATE DRY AIR
WILL HOLD ON AROUND THE 850 MB LAYER OVER MUCH OF SE MICHIGAN WITH
BETTER CHANCES FOR POCKETS OF SATURATION FROM FLINT THROUGH THE
TRI CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB. EXPECT GENEROUS COVERAGE OF VIRGA
ON RADAR BUT JUST A CHANCE OF FLURRIES SOUTH THROUGH METRO DETROIT
DURING THE NIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN SWEEP THE MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS TO OUR EAST BY SUNRISE LEAVING LOW CLOUDS TO
SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION DURING THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 328 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
DISCUSSION...
CLIPPER SYSTEM JUST NORTH OF MINNESOTA WILL TRACK TO EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 12Z THURSDAY THEN TO EAST OF LAKE HURON BY 00Z FRI.
TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPS. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED AS SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BLOCKS ANY DECENT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTH. THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACTIVITY TONIGHT WILL BE
CONFINED CLOSER TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM MAINLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BUT WILL SEE SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND
THUMB. WILL CARRY A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AS COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CLIPPER SWEEPS THROUGH
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPS ALONG WITH
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS
THE LAKE SUPERIOR LIFTING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 40S
MOST LOCALS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD INTO SUNDAY ALONG WITH
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL BRING COLDER AIR FOR MON/TUES. THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM WILL BE A
LARGE AND STRONG DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID WEST
THAT WILL LIFT INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
MIX PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY THAT MAY TRANSITION
TO ALL RAIN OR RAIN MIX WITH SNOW WEDNESDAY.
MARINE...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE WITH SUSTAINED FLOW APPROACHING
30 KNOTS AND GUSTS REACHING GALE FORCE STARTING TONIGHT. A GALE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL LAKE HURON AND OUTER SAGINAW. WINDS
WILL RELAX A BIT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
DROPS THROUGH THE REGION BUT WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE ONCE
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE AND A DAY OF LIGHTER WINDS WILL SETTLE IN FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LHZ362-363-421.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......HLO
AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...DRC
MARINE.......DRK
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1202 AM EST THU JAN 28 2016
.AVIATION...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE EXITING LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SWEEP MID LEVEL
MOISTURE OUT OF SE MICHIGAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND MAINTAIN A
GUSTY WIND FIELD THROUGH THE NIGHT. A WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
MIDWEST WILL THEN BRING A SWAP IN THE VERTICAL MOISTURE DISTRIBUTION
AS THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WORKS OVER THE REGION WHILE DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS IS REPLACED BY A FIELD OF STRATUS. THIS HAS SET THE STAGE
FOR CONSIDERABLE COVERAGE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL SOUTHWARD EXTENT STILL TO BE
DETERMINED. PLAN TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONS FOR SIGNS OF IT REACHING AS
FAR SOUTH AS MBS. TERMINALS TO THE SOUTH FROM PTK THROUGH THE DTW
CORRIDOR WILL JUST EXPERIENCE A RETURN TO MVFR CEILING FOR NOW WITH
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TIMING THROUGH THE NIGHT THEN LASTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THURSDAY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH IT AND FOR A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE.
FOR DTW... A FLURRY OR BRIEF SNOW SHOWER WILL EXIT QUICKLY EASTWARD
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. VFR WILL BE REPLACED BY MVFR CEILING LATER
IN THE NIGHT WHILE GUSTY WIND PERSISTS THROUGHOUT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON AND MOVES THROUGH DTW EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CIGS BLO 5KFT AFTER 10Z LASTING THROUGH THE DAY.
* HIGH FOR PTYPE AS SNOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 928 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
UPDATE...
SATELLITE PRESENTATION INDICATES A POWERFUL SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE EVENING. THIS SYSTEM
IS RESPONSIBLE FOR DRAWING A PLUME OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR THROUGH
THE MID LEVELS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS SHALLOW
BUT ADEQUATE FOR A BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ON RADAR THAT WILL
BATTLE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE 00Z APX
SOUNDING IS A GOOD DEPICTION OF THE PARTIAL SATURATION EXPECTED TO
OCCUR FROM THE FORMIDABLE STARTING POINT SHOWN IN THE DTX
SOUNDING. MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP AND NAM INDICATE DRY AIR
WILL HOLD ON AROUND THE 850 MB LAYER OVER MUCH OF SE MICHIGAN WITH
BETTER CHANCES FOR POCKETS OF SATURATION FROM FLINT THROUGH THE
TRI CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB. EXPECT GENEROUS COVERAGE OF VIRGA
ON RADAR BUT JUST A CHANCE OF FLURRIES SOUTH THROUGH METRO DETROIT
DURING THE NIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN SWEEP THE MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS TO OUR EAST BY SUNRISE LEAVING LOW CLOUDS TO
SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION DURING THURSDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 328 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
DISCUSSION...
CLIPPER SYSTEM JUST NORTH OF MINNESOTA WILL TRACK TO EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 12Z THURSDAY THEN TO EAST OF LAKE HURON BY 00Z FRI.
TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPS. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED AS SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BLOCKS ANY DECENT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTH. THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACTIVITY TONIGHT WILL BE
CONFINED CLOSER TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM MAINLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BUT WILL SEE SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND
THUMB. WILL CARRY A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AS COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CLIPPER SWEEPS THROUGH
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPS ALONG WITH
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS
THE LAKE SUPERIOR LIFTING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 40S
MOST LOCALS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD INTO SUNDAY ALONG WITH
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL BRING COLDER AIR FOR MON/TUES. THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM WILL BE A
LARGE AND STRONG DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID WEST
THAT WILL LIFT INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
MIX PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY THAT MAY TRANSITION
TO ALL RAIN OR RAIN MIX WITH SNOW WEDNESDAY.
MARINE...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE WITH SUSTAINED FLOW APPROACHING
30 KNOTS AND GUSTS REACHING GALE FORCE STARTING TONIGHT. A GALE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL LAKE HURON AND OUTER SAGINAW. WINDS
WILL RELAX A BIT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
DROPS THROUGH THE REGION BUT WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE ONCE
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE AND A DAY OF LIGHTER WINDS WILL SETTLE IN FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ362-363-421.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....BT
UPDATE.......BT
DISCUSSION...DRC
MARINE.......DRK
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1157 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT WILL BRING A QUICK BURST OF SNOW TO SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ABOUT SAUGATUCK
NORTHWARD WILL SEE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SNOW TONIGHT THAT MAY
ACCUMULATE TO 1 TO 3 INCHES. A FEW SPOTS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN COULD SEE 4 INCHES. OVERNIGHT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA
ON THURSDAY AND BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO THE PICTURE AGAIN FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SOME LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WE CANCELLED THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS OVER THE CWA AND UPSTREAM IT
CERTAINLY APPEARS THAT WE WON/T SEE THE SNOW WE ORIGINALLY THOUGHT
WOULD OCCUR. MOISTURE IS TOO SHALLOW AND THE CONTRIBUTION FROM THE
LAKE IS TOO WEAK. EVEN THOUGH THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO POINT
TOWARD PCPN OVERNIGHT...THE RAP AND HRRR ARE BASICALLY DRY WHICH
LINES UP WITH THE RADAR. A FEW FLURRIES OR BRIEF SNOW SHOWER ARE
POSSIBLE BUT ACCUMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. WE ALSO DECREASED POPS FOR
THURSDAY MORNING. STILL COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IT SEEMS WE WILL BE SEEING A
BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS CROSS THE ADVISORY AREA DURING THE MID
EVENING HOURS. THEN THE DEEP MOISTURE DROPS OUT SO MORE THAN
LIKELY WE WILL BE SEEING MOSTLY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW GRAINS
OVERNIGHT. THE OTHER ISSUE IS SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE
FREEZING ALONG THE LAKE SHORE BY 10 PM...THAT REACHES US-131 BY 3
TO 4 AM. SO THEN WE WOULD JUST HAVE MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. I
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE CWA BY 10 AM THURSDAY
BUT THE AIR IS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND.... SO I
HAVE MIXED RAIN/SNOW MID MORNING GOING TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL BE TO WET TO BLOW AROUND...SO EVEN
WITH THE WIND I DO NOT FEEL WE NEED BLOWING SNOW IN OUR FORECAST
TONIGHT. BOTTOM LINE IS I UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOMADATE ALL
OF THESE IDEAS. I WILL LEAVE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IS AS
IT DOES MENTION FREEZE DRIZZLE ALREADY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
FOCUS IS ON THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
FAVORED SOUTHWEST FLOW AREAS TONIGHT. WILL BE MAKING NO CHANGES TO
THE GOING HEADLINE. STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME IMPACT FROM
A COUPLE ROUNDS OF QUICK HITTING SNOW TONIGHT. THE HRRR FOR MULTIPLE
RUNS NOW TODAY IS SHOWING SEVERAL BURSTS OF SNOW ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT THAT IS POSSIBLE WITH
DELTA T/S OF 8 TO 11 DEGREE C. STRONG LIFT IS NOTED IN THE BUFKIT
TIME SECTIONS ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. THE LIFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
ONE/TWO PUNCH FROM A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE
AREA TONIGHT. THE FIRST COMES THROUGH IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME WITH
ANOTHER AFTER 06Z. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AT TIMES BUT THE BURST
OF SNOW SHOULD PUT DOWN 1 TO POSSIBLE 4 INCHES OF SNOW. THE HIGHEST
TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE HIGH GROUND ACROSS EASTERN LAKE AND
OSCEOLA COUNTIES.
IMPACTS MAY BE MODULATED SOME HOWEVER BY THE FACT THAT AIR TEMPS ARE
GOING TO BE NEAR FREEZING. ALSO...THE FACT THAT THE BLOWING SNOW
WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY THE WET NATURE OF THE SNOW. OVERNIGHT SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THAT THE DGZ BECOMES UNSATURATED
WITH CONTINUED LIFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER. AGAIN...THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
MAY BE MITIGATED BY THE SLOWING RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT.
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS DELTA T/S PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. MOISTURE DEPTH
IS DECREASING WITH TIME AND THINKING WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT ANYTHING
TOO HEAVY...ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR TWO.
ANOTHER CLIPPER IN THE SERIES ROTATES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND WE
WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN FLANK ONCE AGAIN. 850MB TEMPS ARE TRENDING
TOWARD THE NEED TO INTRODUCE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION. AT THIS POINT
KEPT THINGS ALL LIGHT SNOW WITH CHANCE POPS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
AN ACTIVE WX PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FCST
PERIOD. ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF MIXED LIGHT RAIN
AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN ON SUNDAY AND BRING
RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE 40S.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAP LOTS OF GULF MOISTURE
AS IT ADVANCES NE TOWARD OUR AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ICE GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WHICH WILL ALSO FEATURE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH BY
TUESDAY.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND
EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER THE GENERAL NOTION IS
UNDOUBTEDLY THERE THAT IT COULD POTENTIALLY BRING A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF WINTRY PCPN LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE EVOLUTION OF THAT SYSTEM CLOSELY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
OUR SNOW BAND DID NOT WORK OUT SO GREAT... BUT I STILL BELIEVE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM WISCONIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND RESULT IN DRIZZLE WERE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
FREEZING... LIKE MKG... BUT FREEZING DRIZZLE INLAND OF THAT AT
GRR...AZO...BTL...LAN AND JXN. ALL AREAS WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING
BY MID MORNING SO THAT SHOULD END FREEZING DRIZZLE BY MID MORNING.
DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS TURNING MORE TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD END THE SNOW SHOWERS MOST AREA BY
EARLY EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
ISSUED A GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY AS IT IS EXPECTED THAT WINDS WILL
SURGE TO GALE FORCE THIS EVENING. THERE IS ABOUT A 6 HOUR WINDOW
TONIGHT WHERE THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TO THE POINT THAT WE ARE
EXPECTING 35-40 KNOT GALES. THE STRONGER GALES WILL BE ALONG THE
HIGHER BLUFFS OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKESHORE...NORTH OF GRAND
HAVEN. WAVES SHOULD BUILD TOWARD 10 FEET OVERNIGHT.
THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY COME DOWN BELOW GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT...BUT
REMAIN UP IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE BOTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED LAST NIGHT AND THAT REMAINS IN
EFFECT NOW FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 205 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. FLOODING CONCERNS ARE
MINIMAL WITH MINOR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
5 DAYS. THE MAIN TOPIC IS MORE THAN LIKELY WHAT COMES TOWARD THE
END OF THE LONG TERM (NEXT WEEK).
A FEW ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BETWEEN NOW AND THIS WEEKEND. EACH ROUND IS EXPECTED
TO BRING MINOR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. SNOWFALL IS THE LIKELY MODE
OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY. MILDER WEATHER WILL BE PUSHING
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THIS WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO
THE 40S BY SUNDAY...IF NOT AS EARLY AS SATURDAY. RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN BY LATE SUNDAY.
THE REAL CONCERN EXTENDS INTO NEXT WEEK WITH WHAT MAY BE A RATHER
POTENT SYSTEM. MANY QUESTIONS STILL EXIST WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND STORM TRACK. THAT SAID...THE STORM LOOKS TO BE EQUIPPED WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE. IF THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS RAIN...WE COULD
BE LOOKING AT RIVER RISES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
LMZ844>849.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...04
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1150 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1127 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
INDEED...SEVERAL REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SOME COATINGS OF
ICE OUT THERE FOR MOST ALL AREAS OF NRN LOWER AND EVEN SOME
SPOTTIER REPORTS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED AN
ADVISORY FOR DEVELOPING BLACK ICE/VERY SLIPPERY ROADS...MAINLY ON
UNTREATED ROADS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW COVER. A BAND OF DEEPER
MOISTURE IS SLIDING INTO EMMET COUNTY AND EXTENDING UP THROUGH
WESTERN CHIP/MACK. THIS OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK VORT MAX. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SNOW. CONCERN IS FOR THE CHANCE FOR THINGS TO GO BACK TO
FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER IS PASSES THROUGH. RIGHT NOW...ALL OF NRN
LOWER IN A NEW ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1049 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND HI RES SOUNDING DATA SHOWS DEEPER MOISTURE
HAS BEEN STRIPPED OUT ALOFT...AND THE TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS ALL UNDER -10C WITH STRONG WINDS HELPING TO DEVELOP AREAS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE. WILL BE MONITORING FOR A POSSIBLE NEW HEADLINE
FOR ICING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
RATHER SUBSTANTIAL UPDATES THIS EVENING. WAA BAND OF SNOWS THAT
ROLLED THROUGH AMOUNTED TO VERY LITTLE...AND CONDITIONS ARE LESS
THAN MARGINAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT. THERE IS A VORT
MAX SWINGING DOWN INTO FAR NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND THERE WILL BE A
AN UPTICK IN THE SNOWFALL. THERE WAS SOME CONSIDERATION FOR
KEEPING THE ADVISORIES FOR EASTERN UPPER AND EMMET COUNTY TO TAKE
THIS INTO ACCOUNT. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL COMBINATION OF SNOW AND
WIND ON REDUCED VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LESS. THUS...THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE CLIPPER`S COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION 12-16Z THURSDAY...AND WILL HAVE
MINIMAL EFFECT FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKES...BUT ACROSS NW LOWER
AND CHIPPEWA COUNTY...A BURST OF SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IS
LIKELY DUE TO MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE LAKES.
MADE THE APPROPRIATED ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST...LOWERED
CHANCES FOR SNOW AND LOWERED OVERALL SNOWFALL EXPECTATIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO EXIT EAST AWAY FROM MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE IS NEARING THE ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THRU
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL
SW FLOW/WAA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...LIMITING ANY RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT
PRECIP TO MAINLY FLURRIES ACROSS OUR CWA ATTM.
LATEST BASE REF IMAGES FROM UPSTREAM RADARS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF
WIDESPREAD SNOW TAKING SHAPE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN IN
ADVANCE OF THE LOW CENTER AND COLD FRONT. BOTH THE RAP AND THE NAM
SHOW THIS LEADING EDGE REACHING OUR WRN CWA JUST BEFORE 00Z...
QUICKLY SPREADING EASTWARD THRU THE REST OF OUR CWA THEREAFTER. WITH
DELTA T`S OF AROUND 10 DEGREES...SUSPECT LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF SW
FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN (I.E. OUR FAR WRN CWA) MAY VERY WELL SEE
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ONCE INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
ACTIVATE SEEDER/FEEDER PROCESSES ALOFT PER LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND CROSS SECTIONS. WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THIS TAKING SHAPE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW DEVELOPING EARLY THIS EVENING
ONCE MID LEVELS MOISTEN.
CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORIES ACROSS ERN UPR AND NW LWR MICHIGAN
REMAIN IN LINE WITH LATEST MODEL TRENDS...AND IN COORDINATION WITH
GRR...WILL KEEP ALL HEADLINES IN TACT. STILL EXPECT A GENERAL 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW FOR THESE AREAS...TAPERING TO LESS THAN AN INCH
ACROSS NE LWR MICHIGAN AWAY FROM ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT. CERTAINLY THE
GUSTY SW WINDS WILL PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...AND MAKE
OVERALL DRIVING CONDITIONS RATHER HAZARDOUS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...WHICH DECIDEDLY THROWS THIS EVENT INTO ADVISORY TERRITORY
DESPITE BORDERLINE SNOW AMOUNTS. TEMPS WILL STAY NEARLY STEADY
TONIGHT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S THANKS TO WAA AND AMPLE CLOUD
COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
FORECAST CHALLENGE: SEVERAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES, BRINGING POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION TYPE PROBLEMS, AND LAKE
EFFECT.
(1/28)THURSDAY...THE CLIPPER SYSTEM IS IN EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT
12Z. AS IT MOVES EAST IN THE MORNING, THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP QUITE A BIT BY 18Z, AND WE START GETTING NW WINDS OF 15-
20 KNOTS ACROSS N LOWER AND E UPPER. THIS GETS THE LES GOING AS THE
850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND -10C BY 00Z. NW TO NNW SNOW BANDS
WILL BEGIN TO FORM. HOWEVER, AS THE CLIPPER MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES, DESPITE THE NORTH TO NNW WIND FLOW AND CHILLY AIR
ACROSS LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN, THERE IS VERY DRY AIR TRAILING
THIS SYSTEM AS THE 850-700 MB RH FALLS TO LESS THAN 15% UPSTREAM IN
W UPPER AND WISCONSIN BY 06Z. THE DRY AIR IS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AS WE GET INTO THE OVERNIGHT, WITH THE RH IN THE LAYER AT 10% OR
LESS BY 12Z. WILL THERE BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS? YES, BUT THE INTENSITY
OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT BY 12Z. SO LIGHT AMOUNTS
DURING THE DAY AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST AND MINOR AMOUNTS, MAINLY
NEAR TVC AS THE DRY AIR DIMINISHES THE SNOW SHOWERS.
(1/29)FRIDAY...THERE COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES NEAR TVC AS THE WINDS
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT THE DRY AIR IS FULLY IN CONTROL AND
MINIMIZING THE SNOW PRODUCTION POTENTIAL. SO WILL LEAVE THE MORNING
DRY. AFTER 18Z, THE RIDGE SFC AND 850 MB AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS TURNS THE 1000-850 MB LAYER WINDS FROM WNW TO SW IN A
HURRY. BY 00Z, THE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SW, BUT THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN N LAKE MICHIGAN ARE EXPECTED TO BE -8C(NEAR ST.
IGNACE) OR WARMER. WITH THE WATER TEMPERATURES AROUND +3C THEN WE
DON`T HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO EVEN GET SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL LITTLE TO NO LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN THE
EVENING, BUT THE MAIN SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO THE REGION, WITH THE
WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF US AND THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THE SNOW
GETTING INTO E UPPER AND NW LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY. NOW THEY JUST
BARELY GET THE CHANCE FOR SNOW INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY. FOR MORE
MOST PLACES IT WILL BE A DRY DAY.
AFTER 00Z, THE NEXT CLIPPER, WHICH HAS ITS BAROCLINIC ZONE STRUNG
OUT OVER THE STATE FROM NW TO SE, DROPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND THE SNOW BEGINS TO SPREAD OVER THE STATE. MOST OF THE FOCUS WILL
BE WITH THE MOISTURE WHICH LOOKS LIKE UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS BEING A
CLIPPER SYSTEM, IT`S PRETTY MOISTURE STARVED, SO THE AMOUNTS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT OVER E UPPER AND MINOR TO LIGHT OVER N LOWER.
(1/30)SATURDAY...THE CLIPPER TURNS ITS CORNER NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR, AND BEGINS HEADING EAST INTO QUEBEC BEFORE ITS CORE EVER
GETS TO LAKE SUPERIOR. DRY AIR AT 850 MB WILL PUSH UP INTO THE S
LOWER, AS THE CLIPPER MOVES OUT, AND THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE ON
THE RISE. WINDS REMAIN SW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, SO WILL EXPECT THE
SYSTEM PRECIPITATION (MAINLY SNOW) WILL CONTINUE OUT BY THE
AFTERNOON, AND THE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA, BEFORE SUNSET.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
THINGS CONTINUE TO LOOK ACTIVE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A BRIEF
WARMING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS COULD GET
TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING...RESULTING IN SOME RAIN/MIX PRECIP ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF ARRIVING SNOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH TIMING ISSUES THIS FAR OUT. A SYSTEM IN THE TUE/WED
TIME FRAME IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE MAIN STORY OF THIS EXTENDED. THIS
IS AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SYSTEM...WITH A SOUTHERLY TRACK THAT WILL
ENABLE A GOOD TAP OF GULF MOISTURE TO GO ALONG WITH THE STRONG
FORCING. IT IS A BIT EARLY FOR SPECIFICS...BUT THIS IS A STORM TO
KEEP AN EYE ON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
DEEPER MOISTURE HAS STRIPPED OUT ALOFT AND THE SNOW IS LESS OF A
CONCERN..OUTSIDE OF PLN WHERE SOME ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OR LESS
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF NRN LOWER...AND LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THAT THIS MAY
EASILY BE THE PREVAILING CONDITION FOR THE NIGHT. THE SYSTEM COLD
FRONT WILL CHANGE THAT...ARRIVING 12-16Z...BRINGING A BURST OF
BETTER SNOWS TO THE NW LOWER AIRPORTS. LOOKS LIKE A RATHER BLAND
DAY OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SNOW AFTER THE FRONT PUSHED THROUGH. TEMPERATURES DO NOT GET COLD
ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SNOW LOOKS
MINIMAL AS FAR AS AMOUNTS.
GUSTY S/SW WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WIND SHEAR STILL PRESSING
ON. GUSTY AGAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS WINDS
SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST TODAY...AND EVENTUALLY NW BY THURSDAY
EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REACH GALE FORCE ALONG OUR LAKE MICHIGAN
NEARSHORE AREAS TONIGHT AS SW WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING JUST NORTH OF MICHIGAN. SCA CRITERIA WINDS AND WAVES ARE
EXPECTED FOR OUR LAKE HURON NEARSHORE AREAS. CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH
GALE FORCE ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NEARSHORE AREAS ON THURSDAY AS
WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AND STRENGTHEN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MUCH OF OUR
NEARSHORE AREA THRU THURSDAY...RESULTING IN REDUCED VSBYS.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ016>036-
041-042.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DICKSON
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...MAYHEW
AVIATION...DICKSON
MARINE...MLR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1135 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1127 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
INDEED...SEVERAL REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SOME COATINGS OF
ICE OUT THERE FOR MOST ALL AREAS OF NRN LOWER AND EVEN SOME
SPOTTIER REPORTS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED AN
ADVISORY FOR DEVELOPING BLACK ICE/VERY SLIPPERY ROADS...MAINLY ON
UNTREATED ROADS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW COVER. A BAND OF DEEPER
MOISTURE IS SLIDING INTO EMMET COUNTY AND EXTENDING UP THROUGH
WESTERN CHIP/MACK. THIS OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK VORT MAX. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SNOW. CONCERN IS FOR THE CHANCE FOR THINGS TO GO BACK TO
FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER IS PASSES THROUGH. RIGHT NOW...ALL OF NRN
LOWER IN A NEW ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1049 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND HI RES SOUNDING DATA SHOWS DEEPER MOISTURE
HAS BEEN STRIPPED OUT ALOFT...AND THE TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS ALL UNDER -10C WITH STRONG WINDS HELPING TO DEVELOP AREAS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE. WILL BE MONITORING FOR A POSSIBLE NEW HEADLINE
FOR ICING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
RATHER SUBSTANTIAL UPDATES THIS EVENING. WAA BAND OF SNOWS THAT
ROLLED THROUGH AMOUNTED TO VERY LITTLE...AND CONDITIONS ARE LESS
THAN MARGINAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT. THERE IS A VORT
MAX SWINGING DOWN INTO FAR NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND THERE WILL BE A
AN UPTICK IN THE SNOWFALL. THERE WAS SOME CONSIDERATION FOR
KEEPING THE ADVISORIES FOR EASTERN UPPER AND EMMET COUNTY TO TAKE
THIS INTO ACCOUNT. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL COMBINATION OF SNOW AND
WIND ON REDUCED VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LESS. THUS...THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE CLIPPER`S COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION 12-16Z THURSDAY...AND WILL HAVE
MINIMAL EFFECT FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKES...BUT ACROSS NW LOWER
AND CHIPPEWA COUNTY...A BURST OF SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IS
LIKELY DUE TO MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE LAKES.
MADE THE APPROPRIATED ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST...LOWERED
CHANCES FOR SNOW AND LOWERED OVERALL SNOWFALL EXPECTATIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO EXIT EAST AWAY FROM MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE IS NEARING THE ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THRU
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL
SW FLOW/WAA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...LIMITING ANY RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT
PRECIP TO MAINLY FLURRIES ACROSS OUR CWA ATTM.
LATEST BASE REF IMAGES FROM UPSTREAM RADARS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF
WIDESPREAD SNOW TAKING SHAPE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN IN
ADVANCE OF THE LOW CENTER AND COLD FRONT. BOTH THE RAP AND THE NAM
SHOW THIS LEADING EDGE REACHING OUR WRN CWA JUST BEFORE 00Z...
QUICKLY SPREADING EASTWARD THRU THE REST OF OUR CWA THEREAFTER. WITH
DELTA T`S OF AROUND 10 DEGREES...SUSPECT LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF SW
FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN (I.E. OUR FAR WRN CWA) MAY VERY WELL SEE
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ONCE INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
ACTIVATE SEEDER/FEEDER PROCESSES ALOFT PER LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND CROSS SECTIONS. WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THIS TAKING SHAPE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW DEVELOPING EARLY THIS EVENING
ONCE MID LEVELS MOISTEN.
CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORIES ACROSS ERN UPR AND NW LWR MICHIGAN
REMAIN IN LINE WITH LATEST MODEL TRENDS...AND IN COORDINATION WITH
GRR...WILL KEEP ALL HEADLINES IN TACT. STILL EXPECT A GENERAL 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW FOR THESE AREAS...TAPERING TO LESS THAN AN INCH
ACROSS NE LWR MICHIGAN AWAY FROM ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT. CERTAINLY THE
GUSTY SW WINDS WILL PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...AND MAKE
OVERALL DRIVING CONDITIONS RATHER HAZARDOUS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...WHICH DECIDEDLY THROWS THIS EVENT INTO ADVISORY TERRITORY
DESPITE BORDERLINE SNOW AMOUNTS. TEMPS WILL STAY NEARLY STEADY
TONIGHT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S THANKS TO WAA AND AMPLE CLOUD
COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
FORECAST CHALLENGE: SEVERAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES, BRINGING POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION TYPE PROBLEMS, AND LAKE
EFFECT.
(1/28)THURSDAY...THE CLIPPER SYSTEM IS IN EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT
12Z. AS IT MOVES EAST IN THE MORNING, THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP QUITE A BIT BY 18Z, AND WE START GETTING NW WINDS OF 15-
20 KNOTS ACROSS N LOWER AND E UPPER. THIS GETS THE LES GOING AS THE
850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND -10C BY 00Z. NW TO NNW SNOW BANDS
WILL BEGIN TO FORM. HOWEVER, AS THE CLIPPER MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES, DESPITE THE NORTH TO NNW WIND FLOW AND CHILLY AIR
ACROSS LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN, THERE IS VERY DRY AIR TRAILING
THIS SYSTEM AS THE 850-700 MB RH FALLS TO LESS THAN 15% UPSTREAM IN
W UPPER AND WISCONSIN BY 06Z. THE DRY AIR IS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AS WE GET INTO THE OVERNIGHT, WITH THE RH IN THE LAYER AT 10% OR
LESS BY 12Z. WILL THERE BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS? YES, BUT THE INTENSITY
OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT BY 12Z. SO LIGHT AMOUNTS
DURING THE DAY AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST AND MINOR AMOUNTS, MAINLY
NEAR TVC AS THE DRY AIR DIMINISHES THE SNOW SHOWERS.
(1/29)FRIDAY...THERE COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES NEAR TVC AS THE WINDS
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT THE DRY AIR IS FULLY IN CONTROL AND
MINIMIZING THE SNOW PRODUCTION POTENTIAL. SO WILL LEAVE THE MORNING
DRY. AFTER 18Z, THE RIDGE SFC AND 850 MB AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS TURNS THE 1000-850 MB LAYER WINDS FROM WNW TO SW IN A
HURRY. BY 00Z, THE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SW, BUT THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN N LAKE MICHIGAN ARE EXPECTED TO BE -8C(NEAR ST.
IGNACE) OR WARMER. WITH THE WATER TEMPERATURES AROUND +3C THEN WE
DON`T HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO EVEN GET SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL LITTLE TO NO LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN THE
EVENING, BUT THE MAIN SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO THE REGION, WITH THE
WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF US AND THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THE SNOW
GETTING INTO E UPPER AND NW LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY. NOW THEY JUST
BARELY GET THE CHANCE FOR SNOW INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY. FOR MORE
MOST PLACES IT WILL BE A DRY DAY.
AFTER 00Z, THE NEXT CLIPPER, WHICH HAS ITS BAROCLINIC ZONE STRUNG
OUT OVER THE STATE FROM NW TO SE, DROPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND THE SNOW BEGINS TO SPREAD OVER THE STATE. MOST OF THE FOCUS WILL
BE WITH THE MOISTURE WHICH LOOKS LIKE UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS BEING A
CLIPPER SYSTEM, IT`S PRETTY MOISTURE STARVED, SO THE AMOUNTS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT OVER E UPPER AND MINOR TO LIGHT OVER N LOWER.
(1/30)SATURDAY...THE CLIPPER TURNS ITS CORNER NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR, AND BEGINS HEADING EAST INTO QUEBEC BEFORE ITS CORE EVER
GETS TO LAKE SUPERIOR. DRY AIR AT 850 MB WILL PUSH UP INTO THE S
LOWER, AS THE CLIPPER MOVES OUT, AND THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE ON
THE RISE. WINDS REMAIN SW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, SO WILL EXPECT THE
SYSTEM PRECIPITATION (MAINLY SNOW) WILL CONTINUE OUT BY THE
AFTERNOON, AND THE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA, BEFORE SUNSET.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
THINGS CONTINUE TO LOOK ACTIVE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A BRIEF
WARMING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS COULD GET
TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING...RESULTING IN SOME RAIN/MIX PRECIP ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF ARRIVING SNOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH TIMING ISSUES THIS FAR OUT. A SYSTEM IN THE TUE/WED
TIME FRAME IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE MAIN STORY OF THIS EXTENDED. THIS
IS AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SYSTEM...WITH A SOUTHERLY TRACK THAT WILL
ENABLE A GOOD TAP OF GULF MOISTURE TO GO ALONG WITH THE STRONG
FORCING. IT IS A BIT EARLY FOR SPECIFICS...BUT THIS IS A STORM TO
KEEP AN EYE ON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST AND CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW.
SOLID MVFR CIGS ARE STARTING TO ERODE FROM THE WEST WHERE CLOUD
LAYER WAA WAS OCCURRING. WE CONTINUE TO WAA INTO THAT LAYER WHILE
WINDS/WIND SHEAR INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. GOTTA BELIEVE THE
WAA AND STRONGER WINDS/MIXING WILL KEEP CIGS VFR UNTIL OVERNIGHT
WHEN A SFC TROUGH FROM WISCONSIN BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR. A
TIGHTLY WOUND UP ALBERTA CLIPPER IS QUICKLY BRINGING IN THE
STRONGER WINDS...AS WELL AS A BAND OF WAA SNOWS. CONFIDENCE LESS
THAN AVERAGE ON THE VSBY IMPACT OF THE LIGHT SNOW AND WIND
COMBINATION THAT ARRIVES 01Z-03Z. WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE LATEST
FORECAST IDEAS...BUT THOUGHTS ARE SWIRLING THAT MAYBE VSBYS WILL
NOT BE AS BAD. LAKE CONTRIBUTIONS ARE MARGINAL...BUT HI RES DATA
SUGGESTS THAT IT`S ENOUGH TO KEEP SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW GOING
ACROSS NW LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT. LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WE WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT PLOW THROUGH BRINGING A BONA
FIDE PERIOD OF SNOW. LOW LEVEL CAA DOESN`T EVEN APPEAR TO BE
ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
GONNA RIDE 1-3 INCHES ACROSS NW LOWER THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER
INCH THURSDAY. SNOWFALL RATES LOW WITH SNOW RATIOS 13-15:1.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REACH GALE FORCE ALONG OUR LAKE MICHIGAN
NEARSHORE AREAS TONIGHT AS SW WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING JUST NORTH OF MICHIGAN. SCA CRITERIA WINDS AND WAVES ARE
EXPECTED FOR OUR LAKE HURON NEARSHORE AREAS. CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH
GALE FORCE ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NEARSHORE AREAS ON THURSDAY AS
WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AND STRENGTHEN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MUCH OF OUR
NEARSHORE AREA THRU THURSDAY...RESULTING IN REDUCED VSBYS.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ016>036-
041-042.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DICKSON
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...MAYHEW
AVIATION...DICKSON
MARINE...MLR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1145 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
RAIN FALLING FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES EASTWARD TO MUCH OF NW WI.
THE EXCEPTION BEING RIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
NEAR CORNUCOPIA WHERE SNOW WAS REPORTED BY AN OBSERVER. LIGHT SNOW
FALLING NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 2 IN NE MN WHERE TEMPS SUPPORT THE
SNOW. CAA BEGINNING IN THE 925MB LAYER IN NW WI TO THE TWIN PORTS.
WILL SEE THE RAIN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT. AS THE
VERTICALLY STACKED SFC/UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD...THE PCPN WILL
GRADUALLY END OVERNIGHT. UPDATED TO SHOW THIS TREND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE
CENTER POSITIONED ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...TRACKING INTO
THE MN ARROWHEAD. SPOTTERS ACROSS THE IN IRON RANGE HAVE REPORTED
ABOUT AN HOUR OF A WINTRY OF SNOW/FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET THIS
AFTERNOON...FOUND JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW. HAVE INTRODUCED
FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE ARROWHEAD ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
FURTHER SOUTH...LATEST SPC RUC 925MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG PUSH
OF WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE WEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON TO RAPIDLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 30 TO AROUND 40 ACROSS
THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION. THE WARM SLOT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH OUR DAYTIMES
HIGHS LIKELY TO BE MET AFTER SUNSET AS TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BEGIN
TO FALL UNTIL THE LOW MAKES IT WAY FAR ENOUGH EAST THE COLD AIR
CAN DROP INTO THE REGION.
CONTINUE TO CARRY SMALL POPS/FLURRIES ON THURSDAY AS THE CYCLONIC
FLOW COMBINED WITH 500MB TEMPS APPROACHING -30C LINGER OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
THURSDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHLAND
THURSDAY EVENING. THE VERY LIGHT WINDS AND PARTIAL CLEAR SKIES COULD
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES DROP WELL DURING THE EVENING...DESPITE
WARMING TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE NIGHT WHEN SSE WINDS DEVELOP AND
HIGH CLOUD COVER MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. LOWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO NEAR THE GUNFLINT TRAIL...TO
AROUND 20 DEGREES NEAR THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...BRINGING WARMER AIR INTO
THE REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING 850 HPA TEMPERATURES OF UP TO
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SW FORECAST AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO THE LOWER 30S. IT COULD BE
HIGHER...IF IT WERE NOT FOR THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND THEN PCPN
THAT WILL COME FROM A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING ESE ACROSS
CENTRAL MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE RELATED PCPN...EXCEPT THE ECMWF IS A BIT
WETTER...FASTER...AND MORE SOUTH THAN THE GFS/CANADIAN/NAM. WHILE
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FORECAST AREA SHOULD PRIMARILY GET
SNOW...THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MIXED PCPN ACROSS THE SW AND
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...POSSIBLY SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. THIS
THREAT WILL NEED TO BE EXAMINED MORE CLOSELY OVER COMING SHIFTS.
SNOW COULD LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SHORTWAVE MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FORECAST
AREA WILL LIKELY GET A TOTAL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD. THE GUNFLINT TRAIN...NE BOUNDARY
WATERS...AND FAR NORTH SHORE COULD GET AROUND 4 TO 5 INCHES.
SATURDAY...MORE ZONAL FLOW AND SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING
SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE AND
DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR
SE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COLDER SUNDAY BECAUSE
OF THE COLDER AIR THAT WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE
NORTHLAND WILL BE AFFECTED BY A STORM SYSTEM DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...PRIMARILY THE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THE
THE GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF ARE CONTINUING TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL FORM A STACKED LOW NEAR THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE ON MONDAY...AND LIFT THROUGH THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF TAKE THE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS
AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT...SPREADING CONSIDERING PCPN
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FORECAST AREA. IT APPEARS PLENTY COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOWFALL DUE TO THE WRAP AROUND COLD AIR COMING DOWN FROM
CANADA. OUR OFFICE WILL NEED TO INCREASE OUR ATTENTION ON THIS
POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
MAINLY MVFR AT THE START OF THE FORECAST WITH SOME PATCHES OF VFR
AND IFR. VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
OVERNIGHT. PCPN WILL BECOME ALL SNOW AS COLDER AIR WORKS ITS WAY
ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END BY 12Z AS WELL
AS THE GUSTY WINDS. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 26 27 12 30 / 80 10 0 60
INL 22 22 10 33 / 80 40 30 80
BRD 28 29 19 34 / 20 10 10 40
HYR 27 27 13 32 / 50 30 0 40
ASX 27 27 12 31 / 80 60 10 50
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1133 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
EARLY UPDATE THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR A LACK OF ANY ONGOING
SNOW FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-94 WHERE WE HAD LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS ONGOING. PER RADAR TRENDS...JUST NOT SEEING MUCH LIKELY TO
HAPPEN UP THAT WAY THE REST OF THE EVENING...AND LIKELY THROUGH AT
LEAST 2 AM. HOWEVER...DO GET THE FEELING BASED ON THE SETUP THAT
THERE COULD BE A NARROW WINDOW FOR SOME RATHER INTENSE SNOW
SHOWERS TO ROLL SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT INTO 9-10 AM TOMORROW
NORTH OF I-90 INTO WISCONSIN COUNTIES ALONG AN INCOMING SHALLOW
BUT RATHER SHARP COLD FRONT. UP UNTIL THAT FEATURE ARRIVES...
DEEPER MOISTURE/FORCING LOOK TO REMAIN CONFINED PRIMARILY NORTH OF
TAYLOR/CLARK COUNTIES WITH NOTHING WORSE THAN A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY
EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A PUSH OF SUB-800MB COLD ADVECTION BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 09-15Z...AND AN ASSOCIATED TIGHT LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
RESPONSE...DON`T HAVE MUCH DIFFICULTY ENVISIONING A BAND OF SNOW
SQUALLS RIDING SOUTHWARD ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. HI-
RES GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PICKING UP ON THIS IDEA THE PAST HANDFUL OF
HOURS AND THE IDEA IS STRONGLY SUPPORTED WITH VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND ENHANCED FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...AS EVIDENCED BY
THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER REALLY RAMPING UP FOR A TIME. OVERALL...
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY ACCUMULATION...BUT THERE IS A
POTENTIAL WINDOW THERE EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE FOR SOME TRAVEL
IMPACTS GIVEN BRIEF HEAVY RATES WITHIN ANY SQUALLS...NOT TO
MENTION EXPECTED GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS WITH
EXCELLENT MIXING FOR A TIME IN COLD ADVECTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
CURRENTLY AS OF 2 PM...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED A POTENT SHORTWAVE IN WESTERN WISCONSIN AND
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...WITH ANOTHER ONE QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS NEAR
LAKE WINNIPEG. BOTH WERE DIGGING QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD COMING
DOWN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WERE ACCOMPANYING
BOTH WAVES. DRY AIR EVIDENT ON THE 27.12Z MPX AND ABR RAOBS HAVE
KEPT THE SNOW NORTH OF WISCONSIN 29. SECOND BAND OF SNOW LOCATED
IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE THERE. SOUTHERLY
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO TIGHTENING
GRADIENT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOME MINOR DRIFTING SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND ON
THE BLUFF TOPS AND OPEN AREAS OF WESTERN WISCONSIN.
THE 27.12Z MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOUTH OF WISCONSIN 29...DRY AIR WILL WIN OUT AND IT WILL
ONLY RESULT IN SOME LOWERING OF THE CLOUDS FROM 6 TO 8K FEET TO
AROUND 3K FEET. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF
WISCONSIN 29...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ACCUMULATIONS.
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...THE LAKE WINNIPEG SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MINNESOTA
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WITH THE PRIOR SATURATION FROM THE
PREVIOUS SHORT WAVE...THERE WILL SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM
A TRACE TO A COUPLE OF TENTHS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE MODELS SHOW THAT ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. DRY
AIR ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM MAY LIMIT THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS PRECIPITATION...SO KEPT THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIQUID ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. AS A RESULT DEPENDING ON THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURE...THERE MAY BE SOME FREEZING RAIN TO CONTEND WITH.
MEANWHILE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...THERE LOOKS TO BE A WINTRY MIX
OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN...AND SLEET. DUE TO THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA...WE MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ISSUING A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THE AIR MASS WILL SATURATE
ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A
QUESTION ON HOW WARM AND DEEP WILL THE WARM LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL BE. AS A RESULT...JUST WENT WITH RAIN AND SNOW FOR NOW.
FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE 27.12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
THIS LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED DURING THIS TIME. WHILE THESE
MODELS HAVE FAIRLY DECENT TRACK AGREEMENT WITH LOW MOVING JUST
EAST OF DUBUQUE TO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. WITH THIS
TRACK...SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL FAVOR
SNOW ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF WAS JUST FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COULD BE POTENTIALLY WARM ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN IN
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. AS TYPICAL WITH LOWS MOVING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES...THE MODELS ARE QUITE VARIABLE WITH WHEN
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THE ENSEMBLES SHOW
ADDITIONAL REGIONAL VARIABILITY WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.
A FEW OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE AN OPEN WAVE AND AS A
RESULT THIS SYSTEM TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND THE AREA GETS
LITTLE SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM. MEANWHILE A FEW OF THE ECMWF MODELS
ACTUALLY HAVE A MORE WOUND UP SYSTEM AND AS A RESULT...THIS
SYSTEM WOULD TRACK WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE AREA COULD
POTENTIALLY SEE MORE RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. WITH THIS
SAID...THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF QUESTIONS WHICH NEED TO BE
ANSWERED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
LOW CLOUDS ARE TEMPORARILY DEPARTING...LEAVING ONLY SOME SCATTERED
TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN THEIR WAKE FOR A TIME. HOWEVER...AN
APPROACHING SHALLOW COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING BACK MVFR CONDITIONS
LATER TONIGHT INTO MUCH OF THURSDAY...WITH WESTERLY WINDS SHIFTING
NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING RATHER GUSTY IN THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE
FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
REALLY STEEPEN. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...COULD SEE A BRIEF ROUND
OF SNOW SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE INCOMING COLD FRONT...
ESPECIALLY JUST CLIPPING KLSE...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ENOUGH
TO PRECLUDE ANY MENTION EVEN AT THIS TIME. APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE AND A WEAKENING GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SLACKEN
QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET...WITH LOWER STRATUS PERHAPS BEGINNING TO
BREAK UP.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...AJ/BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...LAWRENCE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1026 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
AND NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
HAVE INCREASED SNOWFALL ACCUMS TO 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER VILAS COUNTY
TONIGHT...DUE TO A COMBINATION OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND DEVELOPING LAKE-EFFECT.
CONCERNING THE COLD FRONT...THINK THAT IT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
BRIEF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. 850-700 MB LAPSE RATES OF 6 TO 6.5
C/KM WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT. DON`T HAVE MUCH EXPERIENCE USING THE
EXPERIMENTAL SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER...BUT IT IS SHOWING ENHANCED
VALUES OVER NW WI RIGHT NOW. THIS COULD BE A SURPRISE HISA (HIGH
IMPACT SUB-ADVISORY) EVENT FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE IN THE FOX
VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AREAS. WILL ISSUE AN UPDATED SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THIS POSSIBILITY...AND PASS MY CONCERNS TO
THE NIGHT SHIFT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 705 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...HAVE CONFINED ANY PCPN TO NORTHERN WI
(MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM MERRILL TO STURGEON BAY)THIS EVG.
PCPN TYPE SHOULD BE PRIMARILY LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE...
AS MOST SFC TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BLO FREEZING IN NORTHERN
WI THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LATER TONIGHT...LIGHT PCPN SHOULD FILL IN
OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
MOST OF THIS PCPN SHOULD FALL AS LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 611 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
INITIAL BAND OF PCPN...WHICH WAS CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO A LACK OF MOISTURE...HAS PULLED OUT
OF NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. NEXT AREA OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COMMA HEAD OF THE SYSTEM WAS MOVG INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI...WITH
NUMEROUS OBSERVATIONS (AND A REPORT FROM VILAS COUNTY) INDICATING
A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING THERE. AS THE
DEEP MOISTURE ARRIVES IN FAR NC WI...THE MIXED PXPN SHOULD CHANGE
TO ALL SNOW FOR A WHILE...WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION NORTH OF RHINELANDER.
NOT SURE IF PCPN WILL BE CONFINED TO JUST NORTHERN WI FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT...AS MODELS SHOW SUBTLE BUT IMPORTANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE MOISTURE PROFILES OVERNIGHT. IF PCPN DOES
DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH...WARMING SFC TEMPS AND A POSSIBLE
LACK OF ICE IN THE SATURATED LAYER WILL MESS WITH PCPN TYPES.
HAVE RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF BLOWING SNOW EARLY THIS EVG...
SO HAVE ADDED PATCHY BLOWING SNOW TO THE FCST. WITH GUSTS
TO 25 TO 35 MPH CONTINUING INTO THE EVG...EXPECT THERE WILL
BE SOME TRAVEL CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN RURAL AREAS...
AND IN THE PORTIONS OF C/EC/NE WI THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIER
SNOW TOTALS (4-6 INCHES) A COUPLE NIGHTS AGO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A POTENT
CLIPPER MOVING EAST OVER THE BOUNDARY WATERS OF MINNESOTA. A SNOW
BAND IS SLIDING EAST AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER IN A WARM ADVECTION
REGIME. VISIBILITIES WERE FALLING TO A QUARTER AND HALF MILE WITHIN
THE BAND OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN EARLY TODAY...INDICATIVE OF HEAVY
SNOW SHOWERS...BUT RADAR EVIDENCE SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGEST SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE WEAKENED SOME. THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
TO THE EAST AND IMPACT MOST OF THE REGION NORTH OF ROUTE 29. IT
COULD BRIEFLY DROP VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE AND ACCUMULATE AROUND A
HALF AN INCH. BEHIND THE BAND OF LIGHT SNOW...SCATTERED FLURRIES AND
DRIZZLE ARE OCCURRING OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AS THE CLIPPER MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...A FAIRLY POTENT YET MOISTURE-STARVED CLIPPER WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSES
BY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. BAND OF WARM ADVECTION SNOWS WILL EXIT
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF LULL
IN THE PRECIP ACTIVITY BEHIND THIS BAND BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...BUT
THEN RELATIVELY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PINWHEEL AROUND BACK INTO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. MOISTURE STRUGGLES TO SATURATE AT TIMES ABOVE
-10C...SO LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES COULD BE MIXED WITH DRIZZLE AT
TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE DURING THE
EVENING TO NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WI...SO IMPACTS FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE IS REDUCED THERE SOMEWHAT.
COLDER TEMPS ALOFT OVER N-C WI SHOULD SEE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE
AS SNOW...AND ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY FALL ON EXISTING
SNOWFALL. SO THINK ANY IMPACTS FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
RELATIVELY MINOR...PERHAPS A FEW SLICK SPOTS COULD DEVELOP ON
UNTREATED ROADS. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS COULD REACH AN INCH OR
TWO IN THE SNOW BELTS...WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT LATE TONIGHT WILL
PROVIDE MORE PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH.
THURSDAY...THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN AN ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION...AND SERVE TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. COMBINED WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER AND FLURRY
ACTIVITY. MORE PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE SNOW
BELT OF N-C WI WHERE AN ADDITIONAL INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THINK THE
SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS WILL NOT MOVE MUCH WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION OCCURRING. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
NW FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO DISSIPATE LATE THIS
WEEK...BUT NOT BEFORE ONE MORE WEAK CLIPPER BRUSHES THE AREA FRI
NGT. AS A NEW UPR RDG BUILDS OVER THE ERN PACIFIC THIS WEEKEND...
THE MEAN FLOW BECOMES SPLIT WITH A WEAK NRN STREAM RUNNING ALONG
THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER AND A STRONGER SRN STREAM RUNNING FROM
THE SW CONUS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. A DEVELOPING SYSTEM IS FCST TO
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT NGT/SUNDAY AND BRING MIXED PCPN TO
NE WI. FOCUS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONTS TO BE A STRONG
SYSTEM PROGGED TO LIFT INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY TUE AND THE GREAT
LAKES ON WED. PLENTY OF TIME YET TO DETERMINE PCPN TYPE OR SNOW
TOTALS...BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE COMING DAYS.
ANY RESIDUAL LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS OR FLURRIES OVER N-CNTRL
WI WL END RATHER QUICKLY THU EVENING AS A RDG OF HI PRES BUILDS
INTO WI. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR A
TIME...ALTHO MODELS DO SHOW HI CLOUDS PUSHING INTO WRN WI LATE THU
NGT AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER. THESE MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FRESH SNOW WL ALLOW TEMPS TO
EASILY FALL. WL NEED TO CHOP READINGS DOWN A GOOD 3 TO 5 DEGS ON
AVERAGE OVER MOST LOCATIONS WITH NRN WI FROM ZERO TO 5 ABOVE...
CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI AROUND 10 ABOVE AND THE LAKESHORE FROM 10 TO 15.
AS THE SFC RDG SLIDES TO OUR EAST ON FRI...A SOUTHERLY WIND TO
DEVELOP ACROSS WI WITH INCREASING ISEN LIFT AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER
WHICH IS FCST TO REACH NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG BY 00Z SAT. CLOUDS WL
CONT TO THICKEN OVER NE WI THRU THE DAY WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
PCPN REACHING NRN AND PARTS OF CNTRL WI IN THE MORNING AND THE
REST OF NE WI DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PCPN TYPE SHOULD REMAIN
ALL SNOW...BUT WL HAVE TO WATCH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
AS WAA COULD MIX IN A LITTLE SLEET. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE GENERALLY
IN THE MID TO UPR 20S.L
THE CLIPPER IS FCST TO MOVE EWD INTO WRN ONTARIO FRI NGT AND SWING
A CDFNT ACROSS WI IN THE PROCESS. THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING
IS PROGGED TO BE FROM NRN WI NWD...THUS HIGHER POPS OVER NRN WI
WHERE UP TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. THE QUICK-MOVING
SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM COUPLED WITH LOW SNOW RATIOS WL LIMIT SNOW
AMOUNTS. ONCE AGAIN...THERE MIGHT BE A LITTLE SLEET OR EVEN
FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN WITH THE SNOW FRI EVENING BEFORE COLDER AIR
ALOFT ARRIVES AND CHANGES PCPN TO ALL SNOW. MIN TEMPS COULD
ACTUALLY SLOWLY RISE UNTIL FROPA AND THEN HOLD SOMEWHAT STEADY TIL
DAYBREAK. LOOK FOR READINGS BY SAT MORNING TO BE INTO THE UPR 20S
NORTH...LWR TO MID 30S SOUTH. THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
LATE FRI NGT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING AND COULD END UP AS PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER LATE SAT
MORNING. THIS LEAVES THE REGION UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIE WITH WEST WINDS CONTINUING TO BRING MILD CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA. SAT MAY END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED FCST
WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 30S NORTH...UPR 30S TO LWR 40S
SOUTH.
MODELS CONT TO SEND A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TOWARD
THE WRN GREAT LAKES SAT NGT AS THE MEAN FLOW TO BE TURNING TO THE
SW. PCPN TYPE SHOULD INITIALLY BE ALL SNOW...BUT AS WARMER AIR
GETS PULLED NWD INTON WI TOWARD DAYBREAK...WL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON ANY POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF EITHER RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN OVER
SRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. PCPN TYPE WL REMAIN A CONCERN THRU
SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES RIDES NE ALONG AN EWD MOVING CDFNT.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH HOW MUCH WARM AIR WL BE OVER NE WI AS
THE PCPN FALLS...NOT TO MENTION WHERE THE HEAVIEST PCPN WL FALL.
IT APPEARS THAT THE NORTH WOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW THRU THE DAY...
WHILE RAIN WL MIX WITH THE SNOW CNTRL/FAR NE WI AND A MIX WOULD
CHANGE TO ALL RAIN E-CNTRL. AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD WI
LATER IN THE DAY BEHIND THE CDFNT...THE MIXED PCPN OVER CNTRL WI
COULD BEGIN TO SWITCH BACK TO ALL SNOW. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY TO
RANGE FROM THE LWR TO MID 30S NORTH...MID TO UPR 30S SOUTH.
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW IS FCST TO LINGER INTO SUNDAY NGT AS THIS SYSTEM
TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF PULLING AWAY FROM WI. A QUIET DAY IS
EXPECTED ON MON AS CAA TO BE IN PLAY UNDER A N-NW WIND. THERE MAY
BE SOME LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL OVER N-CNTRL WI...BUT ANY ACTIVITY
LOOKS MINOR AT THIS TIME. MAX TEMPS ON MON TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
THAN THE WEEKEND...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF
FEB.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT STORM THAT IS
PROGGED TO LIFT FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY TUE AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE NGT/WED. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...
THE TRACK OF THE 8H AND SFC LOW PRES AREAS WOULD FAVOR ALL SNOW
FOR THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. HOWEVER...ANY MINOR JOG TO THE WEST
COULD CREATE PCPN TYPE ISSUES FOR E-CNTRL WI. TUE NGT APPEARS TO
BE THE PERIOD WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOWS WOULD FALL WITH LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUING THRU WED. TOO EARLY YET TO CONTEMPLATE ACCUMULATIONS...
BUT WITH GUSTY NE...THEN NORTH WINDS EXPECTED...TUE NGT INTO WED
HAVE THE EARMARKS OF A DIFFICULT TRAVELING PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
LLWS SHOULD TAPER OFF AT THE GRB/ATW/MTW TAF SITES EARLY IN THE
TAF PERIOD.
A MIX OF SNOW...DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY LINGER FOR A FEW
HOURS OVER NORTHERN WI...BUT SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. BRIEF HEAVY
SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT SHIFTS SE
ACROSS THE AREA...SO WILL ATTEMPT TO TIME THESE WITH TEMPO GROUPS
FOR THE TAF SITES. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO INCREASE
OVER FAR NC WI IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN
THE MVFR CATEGORY...THOUGH BRIEF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT AND IN VILAS COUNTY (LAKE
EFFECT). ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF ON THURSDAY...WITH
CIGS IN THE 2500-4000 FT AGL RANGE FOR THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED THURSDAY EVG...AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHALLOWS OUT.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........KIECKBUSCH
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
1005 AM EST THU JAN 28 2016
.Near Term [Through Today]...
The rain continues to push to the east and diminish this morning
with only an area of light showers across the eastern half of the
CWA. There is an area of rain to the southwest of the CWA that the
HRRR develops and spreads into the land areas this
afternoon...mainly east of Panama City to Dothan. The HRRR has had
a good handle on the showers the past few hours and with this
update trended the PoPs more towards a combination of the HRRR
and ECAM which resulted in increasing PoPs for this afternoon. So
although there is a diminishing trend this morning, do expect to
see another round this afternoon.
Hourly temperature trends this morning are on track, but overall
high temperatures may be a tad on the high side, especially if the
second round of rain pans out.
&&
.Prev Discussion [552 AM EST]...
.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
Nearly zonal flow will fill in behind the exiting mid/upper level
trough. Surface high pressure and a much drier air mass will build
in from the west and center over the local region by late Friday.
The high will then slide to our east with low level flow becoming
southerly on Saturday. We will see sunny and dry conditions with
near to slightly above seasonal temperatures.
.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
Enhanced mid/upper level ridging will develop late in the weekend
and early next week ahead of a deepening low pressure system moving
out of the Four Corners region and into the Central Plains by midday
Tuesday. This system will continue to deepen as it lifts
northeastward to the Great Lakes area by 12z Wednesday with showers
and possibly thunderstorms spreading across the local Tri-state
area Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of the associated cold front.
Min and max temps will be above seasonal levels through the
extended period with max temps as high and the lower to mid 70s
both Monday and Tuesday and min temps as warm as the mid to upper
50s both Monday night and Tuesday night.
.Aviation...
[Through 12z Friday] Low ceilings and areas of rain are expected
to persist through the morning hours with IFR to possibly LIFR
conditions. Clearing is expected from west to east through the
afternoon hours with VFR conditions returning this evening
areawide as a drier airmass moves into the area behind a cold
front.
.Marine...
Cautionary level winds and seas will continue through tonight
west of the Apalachicola river. These conditions will spRead to
the eastern legs tonight. Winds and seas will begin to decrease
Friday and become southerly on Saturday as surface high pressure
slides to our east.
.Fire Weather...
Moist conditions are expected this morning with areas of light rain.
Drier air will move in behind the front for Friday afternoon with
min RH values dipping into the 30s over a large part of the area.
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.
.Hydrology...
Minor flooding continues for the Apalachicola River at Blountstown
due to releases from Woodruff Dam. The river along this stretch
continues in a broad flat crest with recession expected to begin
tonight. The lower part of the Choctawhatchee River basin is also
in flood. Caryville is forecast to drop below flood stage on
Thursday. Bruce is above moderate flood stage and is forecast to
crest Thursday morning. Additional rainfall totals over the next
36 hours will generally be under a half an inch, except 0.5-1 inch
totals will be possible across the eastern FL Big Bend. This is
not expected to produce any additional flooding.
For detailed information on specific river stages and forecasts,
please visit http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 61 40 66 38 68 / 70 0 0 0 0
Panama City 59 44 62 46 66 / 100 0 0 0 0
Dothan 57 37 61 38 67 / 70 0 0 0 0
Albany 56 38 62 36 65 / 100 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 59 40 66 37 69 / 80 10 0 0 0
Cross City 65 41 66 38 69 / 70 10 0 0 0
Apalachicola 61 45 66 46 65 / 60 0 0 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FIEUX
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...WOOL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
612 AM EST THU JAN 28 2016
.AVIATION...
FOR THE SHORT TERM...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THUS FAR. MOST OF THE TERMINALS WILL
EXPERIENCE LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH LOW
STRATUS NEAR 1 KFT TO 1500 FT POSSIBLE AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
TO NEAR IFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS. LATEST GUIDANCE STILL
INDICATES ACTIVE CONVECTION AGAIN TODAY...POSSIBLY STARTING IN THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR REGION LATER IN THE MORNING THEN ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE PENINSULA MID-MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ALL
TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCTS BY 14Z OR 15Z...WITH THE OBVIOUS
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY
INDICATING STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BUILDING INTO THE REGION
AROUND 14-16Z DEPENDING ON THE TERMINAL. ACTIVE CONVECTION COULD
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH A CLEARING TREND
FORECAST AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM EST THU JAN 28 2016/
DISCUSSION...
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME, WE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WATCHING
THE EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO, AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF, ALONG THE STALLED OUT
BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRST AFFECT
THE WEST COAST AND NORTHWEST INTERIOR THIS AM. THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THIS LINE, NOW MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS OFF MAINLAND MONROE,
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY, AS IT MOVES INTO BROWARD AND
MIAMI- DADE LATER THIS MORNING. THIS LINE COULD INTENSIFY AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE PENINSULA TOWARDS BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE. 0-1 KM HELICITY AGAIN
SUPPORTS ROTATION AND POSSIBLE SPINUPS/ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS/TORNADOES
AS ACTIVITY CROSSES THE WEST COAST THIS AM AND MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE PENINSULA.
SHRTWV AND 140KT JET CROSSING FL LATER TODAY WILL FINALLY PUSH
THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTH FL THIS EVENING. LATER TODAY, MODELS HAVE
SLOWED DOWN ARRIVAL OF COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH FL. THIS WILL GIVE
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING AND
INCREASED INSTABILITY. WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL AND
VEERING NEAR THE SURFACE, LLVL HELICITY WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT.
STILL THOUGH, ENOUGH TURNING IS LEFT IN THE WIND PROFILE FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO WITHIN THE MAIN SQUALL LINE WITH THE FRONT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT AN AREA OF DAMAGING WINDS
WITHIN THE LINE CONSIDERING 40 KT LLVL JET/0-6KM SHEAR OF 45 M/S
IN THE MIA RAP SOUNDING FOR LATE THIS PM. AS USUAL, MITIGATING
FACTOR IN ALL OF THIS IS HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS THIS MORNING ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTH FL WITH SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF. SPC HAS
CONTINUED THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SOUTH FL. VERY WELL COULD BE
ANOTHER ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER DOES HAVE 25-30
KT GUSTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. WIND GUSTS MAY BE NEAR
ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY WITH BREAKS/THINNING OF THE
CLOUD COVER.
NOT TO BE LOST IN ALL OF THIS, IS ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH
CAN LEAD TO PERHAPS MORE WIDESPREAD URBAN STREET FLOODING TODAY.
HEFTY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM YESTERDAY, 4-6" IN SOME SPOTS AND
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS PWATS/SPECIFIC HUMIDITY/WV MOISTURE TRANSPORT,
NECESSITATES A FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF THE CWA. FOR NOW, MIAMI-
DADE WILL BE LEFT OUT OF THE WATCH, CONSIDERING LOWER TOTALS
YESTERDAY. BUT A SLOW MOVING LINE OF HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
REASON ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE WATCH FURTHER SOUTH LATER TODAY.
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COULD PUT THE NORTHWEST
INTERIOR AND COLLIER COUNTIES INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE STATE FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPS REBOUND QUICKLY ON SUNDAY WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING ALONG EXTREME SOUTH FL BY MONDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS COMING
NORTH FROM THE KEYS. NEXT FRONT PROGGED FOR THE MIDDLE OR END OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE EC AND THE GFS
REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF RIDGING OVER SOUTH FL, LEADS TO
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT AND THE
DEPTH OF COOLER AIR BEHIND IT.
MARINE...
WINDS WILL INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND
GULF WATERS TODAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS AND WINDS. SEAS WILL
BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF WITH HAZARDOUS SEAS
TO NEAR 7 FEET POSSIBLE THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES TO FINISH
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 80 58 72 48 / 90 40 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 57 72 52 / 80 70 10 0
MIAMI 81 61 72 52 / 80 70 10 0
NAPLES 75 56 68 46 / 90 20 10 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ067-068-071-072-168-172.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ063-066-069-070.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-670-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....
AVIATION...60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1010 AM EST THU JAN 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH AND COASTAL FRONT. RAIN WAS OCCURRING OVER MOST
OF THE AREA. THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWED H85 COLD ADVECTION. THE
FORECAST AREA WAS UNDER THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE H25 JET. THE
RAIN WAS MAINLY BEING SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
JET. THE MODELS INDICATE SUPPORT SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. USED THE HRRR FOR THE TIMING.
RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT MAINLY LIGHT RAIN. DECREASING CLOUDS WILL
OCCUR THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR. LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. THE
COLD ADVECTION AND CLEARING WILL BRING COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
THE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT SHOULD BE SUNNY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
SATURDAY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT AND WARMING
EXPECTED AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS. SO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD WITH FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS....FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A DRY PATTERN WITH A PRESSURE RIDGE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST DOMINATING THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS KEEP
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
MODELS SHOW A MOISTURE INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT POPS NEAR 20 PERCENT TUESDAY AND HIGHER
POPS BY WEDNESDAY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH AND COASTAL FRONT. RAIN WAS OCCURRING WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWED H85 COLD ADVECTION. THE
FORECAST AREA WAS UNDER THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE H25 JET. THE
RAIN WAS MAINLY BEING SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
JET. THE MODELS INDICATE SUPPORT SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. DECREASING CLOUDS WILL OCCUR
THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.
USED THE HRRR FOR THE TIMING OF DIMINISHING RAIN AND LEANED
TOWARD THE GFS LAMP FOR THE CEILING AND VISIBILITY FORECAST.
NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS SHOULD BECOME WESTERLY
AFTER 29/00Z AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST MOVES TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
959 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016
Updated the forecast today mainly for sky cover with clouds a bit
slower to increase from the north with much of CWA still enjoying
sunny skies at 10 am. Otherwise rest of forecast looks good
today. Broken to overcast clouds with bases at or below 6k ft
along and north of I-80 (just north of CWA currently), will
spread se across central IL during this afternoon, moving into
northern counties during midday. These lower clouds due to a
clipper system over WI and northern IL that digs se across IN and
eastern IL by sunset. Brunt of its moisture to stay ne of central
IL this afternoon, though could be a few flurries or sprinkles far
ne CWA, ne of I-74. Temps currently in the upper 30s and lower
40s, and should only climb a few more degrees with 40F northern
CWA and mid 40s southern/sw CWA. Breezy WSW winds of 10-20 mph and
gusts of 20-30 mph to turn West to NW during the afternoon as a
trof slides se across central IL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016
Clipper system noted on 08z/2am water vapor imagery over Lake
Superior will continue to track eastward today, remaining well to
the northeast of central Illinois. Meanwhile, low clouds in the
wake of the system extending back into the eastern Dakotas will
begin to sink southward. NAM RH profiles appear to be a bit too
aggressive with the southward push, so have trended toward the
slower GFS. Based on current satellite trends and GFS forecast,
have started the day mostly sunny across the board, followed by
increasing clouds from north to south during the late morning into
the afternoon. By the end of the day, skies will be mostly cloudy
across the entire KILX CWA. NAM hints at some light precip skirting
the far NE this afternoon as a trailing trough axis swings through
the area. HRRR is even more bullish, with the latest run showing
precip extending as far west as the I-55 corridor. Think this is
way overdone, so will disregard the HRRR solution. Will however
mention a chance for flurries/sprinkles along/northeast of a
Champaign to Paris line.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016
Substantial warm-up is still on tap for this weekend as zonal flow
pattern develops across the CONUS and a Pacific-origin airmass
arrives. High temperatures on Friday will be in the lower 40s, then
will climb well into the 50s for both Saturday and Sunday. An
approaching frontal boundary will spread clouds and perhaps a few
rain showers into the area on Sunday: however, weak upper support
and a lack of deep-layer moisture warrants only low chance PoPs.
Big weather story continues to be the development of a major winter
storm early next week. 00z Jan 28 models are in excellent agreement
with the track/timing of this system, and the thermal profiles of
the individual models have also come into better agreement.
GFS/ECMWF/GEM all show surface low pressure developing over the
Texas panhandle Monday evening...then tracking northeastward into
northwest Illinois by Tuesday evening. This particular track will
keep the KILX CWA in the warm sector of the system and lead to
mainly a rain event. Earlier concerns about a potential period of
freezing rain Monday night have been eased with the latest model
run, as surface temps are expected to remain above freezing and the
elevated warm layer achieves max temps of 5-8C by 12z Tue. Have
therefore gone with likely PoPs for rain everywhere Monday night
into Tuesday. With warm/moist air surging northward ahead of the
approaching system, some fairly impressive instability will develop
across the central/eastern CWA Tuesday afternoon. GFS SbCAPEs reach
600-800J/kg while lifted index values drop into the -3 to -5C range.
In addition, 0-6km bulk shear increases to 70-80kt as a strong mid-
level jet develops in advance of the short-wave trough. Given such
strong mid-winter parameters, have added a chance for thunderstorms
to the forecast east of the I-55 corridor on Tuesday.
Both the GFS and ECMWF show the dry slot of the system arriving late
Tuesday afternoon/evening, leading to the end of the significant
precipitation. Based on current projections, it appears rainfall
amounts Monday night through Tuesday will range from 1 to 1.50. As
the low lifts into the Great Lakes, colder air will arrive Tuesday
night and deformation zone precip will arrive from the west.
Thermal profiles are initially warm enough to support rain early
in the evening, but then cool sufficiently for snow Tuesday night
into Wednesday. While the vast majority of the snow will fall
west of the Mississippi River across Iowa/Wisconsin, some light
snow accumulation will be possible across the western half of the
CWA as the precip departs and comes to an end on Wednesday. In
addition, strong winds gusting to at least 30mph and temperatures
falling into the 20s and 30s will make Wednesday a blustery/cold
day.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016
Skies are clear at all TAF sites to start, but a large area of
clouds is seen on satellite loops and will be advecting into the
area and covering the sites later this morning. Cig heights may
start as VFR...above 3kft, but lower MVFR cigs will be quick to
follow so will just have all sites with MVFR cigs when clouds
arrive. The MVFR cigs will continue through the afternoon and into
the evening. Models and bufkit data differ on whether any
scattering out or clearing of clouds will occur tonight. Due to
the uncertainty, will just keep clouds going through remainder of
TAF period at MVFR levels. Winds will be southwest to westerly
today, but then become northwesterly this evening. Wind speeds
will increase and all sites could see some gusts of 20kts or more
during the afternoon. After sunset, speeds will diminish.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
533 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016
Clipper system noted on 08z/2am water vapor imagery over Lake
Superior will continue to track eastward today, remaining well to
the northeast of central Illinois. Meanwhile, low clouds in the
wake of the system extending back into the eastern Dakotas will
begin to sink southward. NAM RH profiles appear to be a bit too
aggressive with the southward push, so have trended toward the
slower GFS. Based on current satellite trends and GFS forecast,
have started the day mostly sunny across the board, followed by
increasing clouds from north to south during the late morning into
the afternoon. By the end of the day, skies will be mostly cloudy
across the entire KILX CWA. NAM hints at some light precip skirting
the far NE this afternoon as a trailing trough axis swings through
the area. HRRR is even more bullish, with the latest run showing
precip extending as far west as the I-55 corridor. Think this is
way overdone, so will disregard the HRRR solution. Will however
mention a chance for flurries/sprinkles along/northeast of a
Champaign to Paris line.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016
Substantial warm-up is still on tap for this weekend as zonal flow
pattern develops across the CONUS and a Pacific-origin airmass
arrives. High temperatures on Friday will be in the lower 40s, then
will climb well into the 50s for both Saturday and Sunday. An
approaching frontal boundary will spread clouds and perhaps a few
rain showers into the area on Sunday: however, weak upper support
and a lack of deep-layer moisture warrants only low chance PoPs.
Big weather story continues to be the development of a major winter
storm early next week. 00z Jan 28 models are in excellent agreement
with the track/timing of this system, and the thermal profiles of
the individual models have also come into better agreement.
GFS/ECMWF/GEM all show surface low pressure developing over the
Texas panhandle Monday evening...then tracking northeastward into
northwest Illinois by Tuesday evening. This particular track will
keep the KILX CWA in the warm sector of the system and lead to
mainly a rain event. Earlier concerns about a potential period of
freezing rain Monday night have been eased with the latest model
run, as surface temps are expected to remain above freezing and the
elevated warm layer achieves max temps of 5-8C by 12z Tue. Have
therefore gone with likely PoPs for rain everywhere Monday night
into Tuesday. With warm/moist air surging northward ahead of the
approaching system, some fairly impressive instability will develop
across the central/eastern CWA Tuesday afternoon. GFS SbCAPEs reach
600-800J/kg while lifted index values drop into the -3 to -5C range.
In addition, 0-6km bulk shear increases to 70-80kt as a strong mid-
level jet develops in advance of the short-wave trough. Given such
strong mid-winter parameters, have added a chance for thunderstorms
to the forecast east of the I-55 corridor on Tuesday.
Both the GFS and ECMWF show the dry slot of the system arriving late
Tuesday afternoon/evening, leading to the end of the significant
precipitation. Based on current projections, it appears rainfall
amounts Monday night through Tuesday will range from 1 to 1.50. As
the low lifts into the Great Lakes, colder air will arrive Tuesday
night and deformation zone precip will arrive from the west.
Thermal profiles are initially warm enough to support rain early
in the evening, but then cool sufficiently for snow Tuesday night
into Wednesday. While the vast majority of the snow will fall
west of the Mississippi River across Iowa/Wisconsin, some light
snow accumulation will be possible across the western half of the
CWA as the precip departs and comes to an end on Wednesday. In
addition, strong winds gusting to at least 30mph and temperatures
falling into the 20s and 30s will make Wednesday a blustery/cold
day.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016
Skies are clear at all TAF sites to start, but a large area of
clouds is seen on satellite loops and will be advecting into the
area and covering the sites later this morning. Cig heights may
start as VFR...above 3kft, but lower MVFR cigs will be quick to
follow so will just have all sites with MVFR cigs when clouds
arrive. The MVFR cigs will continue through the afternoon and into
the evening. Models and bufkit data differ on whether any
scattering out or clearing of clouds will occur tonight. Due to
the uncertainty, will just keep clouds going through remainder of
TAF period at MVFR levels. Winds will be southwest to westerly
today, but then become northwesterly this evening. Wind speeds
will increase and all sites could see some gusts of 20kts or more
during the afternoon. After sunset, speeds will diminish.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
952 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016
CLOUD COVER IS MOVING SOUTH QUICKER THAN FORECAST. AREA RADARS
HAVE AN AREA OF MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE RADAR RETURNS TAKES A
BULK OF THE THE PRECIPITATION MAINLY INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AND
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.
HOWEVER...TRENDS FROM THE RAP SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS FAR WEST AS A MANCHESTER IA TO
KEWANEE IL LINE. IF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORM OF SNOW
SHOWERS...ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD MELT ON CONTACT WITH THE GROUND.
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS AM. IN ITS WAKE... A FEW WEAKER IMPULSES WERE
NOTED ACROSS MN AND WI DIVING S/E ALONG FRONT FLANK OF HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OVER WESTERN NOAM. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A FEW FLURRIES AND
SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THESE DISTURBANCES. MSAS SFC ANALYSIS PLACES
DEEP LOW OF 990 MB OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ATTENDANT TO POTENT GREAT LAKES
SHORTWAVE. COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW THROUGH NORTHERN MN. WEAK SFC
TROUGH NOTED ACROSS OUR CWA... BUT AIRMASS QUITE DRY AND WEAK FORCING
PRECLUDES ANY CLOUDS ATTIM WITH MAIN CLOUD SHIELD TO OUR NORTH ATTENDANT
TO THE COLD FRONT AND CAA/CYCLONIC FLOW. DESPITE THE GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES... BRISK WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND PASSING 925 MB THERMAL RIDGE
ARE HELPING TO HOLD TEMPS UP MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S... WHICH
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE DATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016
MIXING AND STRENGTHENING CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BRING SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS
THIS AM... WHICH COUPLED WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO
BRISK CONDITIONS WITH WINDS GENERALLY BECOMING SUSTAINED AT 14-20 KTS
GUSTING TO AROUND 25-28 KTS PER WIND PROFILES THROUGH AND ATOP THE MIXED
LAYER. THIS FLOW WILL SHUTTLE IN CLOUDS CURRENTLY TO OUR NORTH... THUS
SUNNY TO START THEN LOOK FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY. FOR HIGHS TDY
GENERALLY LEANED AT OR A BIT ABOVE WARMEST GUIDANCE PER DEEP MIXING ALONG
WITH SUNNY AND MILD START. BEFORE CLOUDS ARRIVE ANTICIPATE TEMPS CLIMBING
MAINLY INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...EXCEPT FAR NORTH WHERE MAY REMAIN
IN MID 30S AS CLOUDS ARRIVE THERE FIRST. WHEN THE CLOUDS DO ARRIVE THEY
WILL SEAL OFF TEMP RISE AND WITH DEVELOPING CAA AT 925 MB WILL LIKELY
SEE READINGS HOLD STEADY IF NOT SLIP BACK A FEW DEGS. KEPT SMALL PRECIP
CHCS FOR THIS AFTN MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN IA AND NORTHWEST IL
BEING IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO WEAKER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. WEAK LIFT BUT
WHEN COMBINED WITH VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY LEAD TO SHALLOW
WEAK CONVECTION... THUS 15-20 POPS FOR ISOLD SHOWERS WITH THERMAL PARAMETERS
SUGGESTING RAIN/SNOW AND EVEN PERHAPS SLEET.
TONIGHT...ANTICIPATE DECREASING LOWER CLOUDS IN WAKE OF DEPARTING COLD FRONT
WITH EVENTUALLY JUST SOME CIRRUS SPILLING DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE FOR PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WIND.
GIVEN THE ANTICIPATION OF BROKEN CIRRUS COVERAGE TEMPERED MINS TO WARM SIDE
OF GUIDANCE BLEND WITH A GENERAL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FRIDAY STILL LOOKING LIKE AN INCREASING WARM
AIR ADVECTION DAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW RIPPLING OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS. POSSIBLE CLOUD
COVER AND A SHARPENING INVERSION ALOFT CENTERED ON THE H85 MB LEVEL
MAY LIMIT THE PRE-SYSTEM WARM UP POTENTIAL AND THE LATEST TEMP
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF SOME...WILL ADVERTISE LOW TO MID 30S IN THE
FAR NORTHEAST TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTHWEST. RATHER BRISK
SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS FRI NIGHT AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER TO MAKE FOR A
STEADY TEMP TREND INTO SAT MORNING WITH MINIMAL DROP OFF AFTER
SUNSET. WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY FOR FRI NIGHT...BUT INCREASING
SIGNALS OF SOME LIGHT WAA TYPE PRECIP MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SPRINKLES OR SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN MAY OCCUR FRI EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.
BACKING LLVL FLOW UNDER FLATTENING/INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
ACRS MUCH OF THE CONUS ON SAT TO TRANSLATE INTO AN UNSEASONABLY MILD
DAY. AGAIN CLOUD COVER AND VERTICAL MIXING LIMITING INVERSION
OVERHEAD TO SUPPRESS TRUE WARM UP POTENTIAL...BUT AT LEAST SOME
PARTIAL INSOLATION AND MIXING UP TO H925 MB/INVERSION BASE MAKE FOR
HIGHS WELL UP IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL FCST AREA WITH A 50
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I80. A FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGGING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST OFF ANOTHER WAVE ROLLING ALONG ACTIVE CLIPPER TRACK ALONG
THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE
SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY ACRS THE WESTERN/
NORTHWESTERN CWA. SFC TEMPS CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE MARGINAL FOR ANY
TYPE OF FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE THREAT. SFC WINDS GOING LIGHT
CONVERGENT IN VCNTY OF THE BOUNDARY MAY INDUCE SOME AREAS OF FOG
HOWEVER. ON SUNDAY...THE FRONT SLOWS BUT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA FOR A ONGOING LIGHT PRECIP FOCUS AGAIN MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE IF CLOUD CEILINGS ARE
LOW ENOUGH. AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ALIGNED
PARALLEL TO ORGANIZING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLIES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GRT LKS/EASTERN OH RVR VALLEY
REGIONS... A LEAD WAVE PULSING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC RIBBON MAY
INDUCE AN ISENTROPIC LIFT PRECIP EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT ACRS THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT RAIN INTO EARLY MON MORNING...BUT FURTHER TO THE
NORTH IN DEEPENING LLVL NORTHERLY FLOW/LOWERING WBZS A WINTRY MIX
MAY BE MORE IN LINE.
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...ASSESSING THE LATEST SUITE OF 00Z
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS IN HANDLING THE NOW WELL ADVERTISED LOW
PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RUN-TO-RUN VARIATIONS/LACK OF CONSISTENCY EXPECTEDLY
CONTINUE. SEVERAL OF THE 00Z SOLUTIONS ARE NOT QUITE AS DEEP WITH
THE LLVL CYCLONE...HAVE TRENDED BACK FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST SOME
WITH THE LOW TO MID LEVEL LOW TRACK...AND SPED UP THE LEAD PRECIP
SHIELD ACRS THE REGION BY LATE MON AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY MON
NIGHT. THE GENERAL ENSEMBLE MAIN SFC LOW TRACK CURRENTLY IS FROM
WEST CENTRAL TO SOUTHWESTERN MO LATE TUE MORNING...ACRS THE EAST
CENTRAL CWA TO JUST SOUTHWEST OF CHICAGO BY 00Z WED...AND THEN
ROLLING INTO WEST CENTRAL LOWER MI BY MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT. THIS PATH
AS WELL AS THE MID LEVEL LOW TRACK CURRENTLY INDICATED WOULD PLACE
THE HEAVIEST SNOW TOTALS GENERATED BY THE MAIN SYSTEM...TO THE WEST
AND THE NORTHWEST OF THE DVN CWA. BUT BACK TO MON NIGHT WITH THE
INITIAL PRECIP SURGE AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM...POTENTIAL OF A WINTRY
MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW OR INITIAL STARTING OUT AS
ACCUMULATING SNOW BEFORE THE MIX STARTS LATE MON NIGHT. PORTIONS OF
THE AREA MAY BE MAINLY RAIN ON TUE WITH A STRONG ENOUGH WARM
DRAW...BUT THEN THE IN-WRAPPING LLVL COLD CONVEYOR AS WELL AS ROBUST
DYNAMICAL COOLING COULD HASTEN A SWITCH OVER TO ACCUMULATING SNOW
LATE IN THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY TUE EVENING WITH WESTERN TO
NORTHWESTERN CWA AREAS STILL OPEN TO DECENT ACCUMULATIONS.
WITH ONGOING UNCERTAINTIES AND MODEL RUN ADJUSTMENTS STILL EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS UNTIL THE PACIFIC WAVE ENERGY GETS BETTER
SAMPLED...WILL JUST ADVERTISE A MIX-GOING-INTO-SNOW GENERAL SCENARIO
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR NOW FOR THE PRIME WINDOW OF MON NIGHT THROUGH
WED AM. WHATEVER TRACK THE SYSTEM TAKES...IF THE CURRENT MODELS ARE
CLOSE TO THE DEPTH OF THE LOW THERE MAY BE STRONG WINDS WRAPPING IN
BEHIND IT ALONG WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT COULD COMBINE
WITH LINGERING SNOWFALL UNDER THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW FOR
CONTINUED WINTER WX IMPACTS. CURRENT MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THIS TO BE
WED INTO WED NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AFTER THE SYSTEM FOR MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016
WEST WINDS 10-15 KTS WILL TURN GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 15-25
KTS LATER THIS AM THROUGH PM. STRATUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
TERMINALS THIS AM THROUGH MIDDAY WITH CIGS MAINLY LOWER VFR TO
HIGHER MVFR RANGE. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TO FAR EASTERN IA
AND NORTHWEST IL... AND HAVE GONE WITH VCSH WORDING AT DBQ AND MLI.
TONIGHT...A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BRINGING VFR
CONDITIONS AND DIMINISHING WINDS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
427 AM MST THU JAN 28 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST THU JAN 28 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW RIDING ACROSS
THE WESTERN US EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST CANADA. NW FLOW IS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ALONG THE
COLORADO/KANSAS STATE LINE WITH WEAK LEE TROUGH JUST WEST OF OUR CWA.
TODAY-SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS
EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TOWARDS A QUASI-ZONAL WESTERLY PATTERN WITH
THE MAIN STORM TRACK NORTH OF OUR CWA AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AROUND 60...POSSIBLY MID 60S OVER PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. BY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL KICK A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS OUR CWA
WHICH COULD HELP INCREASE WINDS AND COMPLICATE HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. SINCE CAA IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH THIS HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN US
HEIGHTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE NORTHERN STORM
TRACK WILL SHIFT BACK TOWARDS OUR CWA. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH OVER OUR REGION AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BEHIND THIS
FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION TO SUPPORT
POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW FROM I-70 NORTH. STRONGEST PRECIP SIGNAL/BEST
MEASURABLE CHANCES APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE NEBRASKA STATE LINE.
PRECIP WOULD BE LIGHT IN NATURE WITH ON A DUSTING OF SNOW POSSIBLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST THU JAN 28 2016
WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED
TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MONDAY. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW SHOULD BE OVER IOWA.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE MONDAY AND
THEN SHIFT EAST INTO EASTERN KANSAS TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE NEXT SYSTEM ACROSS THE SAME GENERAL
TRACK THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. HOWEVER THE GFS HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHICH ARE SUSPECT. THE RIDGE EAST OF
THE LOW IS LOW AMPLITUDE WHICH SHOULD ALLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION
RATHER THAN NORTHEAST MOVEMENT AS IT AFFECTS THE FA. BOTH MODELS
SHOW GOOD MOISTURE WITH NO DRY SLOT CUTTING OFF SNOW PRODUCTION.
SINCE THE SYSTEM IS STILL NOT ONSHORE WILL HOLD OFF MAKING ANY BOLD
PREDICTIONS. THE MAIN SNOW EVENT SHOULD BEGIN OVER MOST OF THE FA
MONDAY AND THEN TAPER OFF TUESDAY EVENING. FOR NOW...WINDS ON TUESDAY
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL GO INTO A COOLING TREND WITH 40 TO 46 SUNDAY
COOLING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MIN
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 20S
WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 424 AM MST THU JAN 28 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KMCK
AND KGLD TERMINALS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY MIDDAY TO
AROUND 12KT WITH GUSTS 15-20KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL THEN VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND DECREASE BELOW 10KT AFTER
SUNSET.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
646 AM EST THU JAN 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS THAT TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...
A PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING A PARADE OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS
OF WARMER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE THROUGH TONIGHT.
A WEAK SURFACE LOW REFLECTION FROM THIS WILL TAKE A SIMILAR
TRACK AND IT WILL DROP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT.
AT DAYBREAK RADAR SHOWS VERY LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE...WHICH IS ALIGNED WITH A WEAK MID- LEVEL
WAVE. THIS IS WELL DEPICTED BY A CONSENSUS OF QPF GUIDANCE WITH A
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION BUT UNCERTAINTY STEMMING
FROM WHETHER IT WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO BE MEASURABLE. RADAR
TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORT LIKELY POPS...BUT EVEN SO
THIS WILL ONLY BRING A DUSTING OF SNOW THIS MORNING. AFTER THIS A
DRY SLOT SHOULD MOVE IN WHICH WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
BUT IT WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER WITH GUSTS TO 35
MPH.
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW TONIGHT WHEN THE SURFACE LOW AND
SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT -5C...BUT THESE ARE FORECAST TO DROP
TO AROUND -10C BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. LIFT WILL MAINLY STEM FROM THE
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF SNOW TO MOST AREAS BUT ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF AN
INCH OR SO. LATER TONIGHT THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL...BUT LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED. UPSLOPING IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO PROVIDE SOME
ENHANCEMENT. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (00Z ARW/NMM/RGEM)
SHOW A LAKE HURON CONNECTION...BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IF AND WHERE
THIS WILL OCCUR. IT IS POSSIBLE AMOUNTS EAST OF LAKE ERIE WILL
REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS SHY OF ISSUING
ANY HEADLINES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL OPEN WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM JUST TO THE NORTHEAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH LINGERING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOWS
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE SNOW EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS NORTHWEST
UPSLOPE FLOW MAINTAINS LIGHT SNOW ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY. FARTHER
WESTWARD LINGERING ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOLING 925-850
HPA TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...WITH A
NORTHWEST WIND FOCUSING THE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE. THROUGH
THE DAY UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION...AIR TEMPERATURES AT 925 HPA WILL
DROP TO NEAR -10C EAST OF BOTH LAKES...AND EXPECT LAKE SNOWS TO
DEVELOP EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS WELL. THIS WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO GENERATE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FAVORING THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...AND THE TUG HILL REGION. IT IS THESE UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THAT
COULD NEAR 4 INCH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. WILL MENTION THIS
POTENTIAL MODERATE SNOW EVENT IN THE HWO PRODUCT. OTHERWISE SNOWFALL
FRIDAY WILL BE JUST AN INCH OR LESS OUTSIDE OF THESE FAVORED LAKE
EFFECT AND NORTH COUNTRY UPSLOPE AREAS.
AS NOTED WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AIR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. A STIFF BREEZE WILL BRING WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT BOTH A SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL END THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WITH TRAILING LIGHT
SNOWS GENERAL SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE WILL DIMINISH TO
SCATTERED FLURRIES BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF
THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH THE BRIEF RIDGE AXIS PASSING ACROSS
THE REGION. THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING EARLY IN THE
NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS YET ANOTHER CLIPPER
LOW NEARS THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD AT FIRST LIGHT
SYNOPTIC SNOWS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. AS THE
SYSTEM PULLS MUCH WARMER AIR NORTHWARD EXPECT THESE SNOWS TO CHANGE
OVER TO PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON
SATURDAY WILL BRING AFTERNOON AIR TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S.
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
SOUTHERLY AND WITHOUT AN ARCTIC SOURCE AIRMASS SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. MOST AREAS
MAY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT. SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION
MAY REMAIN EARLY SATURDAY EVENING EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...OTHERWISE
NO LAKE EFFECT WILL BE FOUND BEHIND THIS CLIPPER LOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD REMAINS INTACT WITH BROAD TROUGHING
FOUND OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...SUPPORTING DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP A
PERSISTENT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAINTAINING A VERY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAY REACH INTO THE 40S EACH
DAY...AND POSSIBLY NEAR 50F BOTH SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
STORM SYSTEMS CROSSING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
THE LEAD PACIFIC SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS.
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE DEVELOPING
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO A DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS ALL SIMILAR IN THEIR TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM...KEEPING OUR REGION ON THE WARM SIDE BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW AND A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS. VSBY MAY BRIEFLY
LOWER TO 2 SM...BUT OVERALL THIS WAVE WILL HAVE A LIMITED IMPACT
ON AVIATION.
EXPECT A DRY SLOT TO MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WHEN LOW PRESSURE AND THE
SHORTWAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING
STEADY SNOW TO MOST AREAS WITH IFR OR POSSIBLY LOWER CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS... EXCEPT MVFR/IFR
IN AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS WILL BE A SSW FLOW WHICH WILL SHIFT
TO THE WEST LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE SYSTEM MOVES TO OUR EAST. WINDS
WILL BE MARGINAL TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH
LESSER WINDS/WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO BUT SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NEARSHORES.
WAVES WILL BUILD WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW WITH BETTER MIXING FROM THE
COLDER AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THIS PROMPTS SCA HEADLINES FOR ALL THE
LAKESHORES LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES DIMINISH FRIDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
246 PM PST THU JAN 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...RAIN CHANCES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH BAY THIS
EVENING ...AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AND INTO THE MONTEREY BAY AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING. WET WEATHER THEN POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOCALLY STRONG AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. DRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:00 PM PST THURSDAY... KMUX RADAR PRESENTLY
DETECTING LIGHT RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO AND
MONTEREY BAY REGIONS HOWEVER MOST REFLECTIVITIES ARE DUE TO
VIRGA. WHAT PRECIPITATION DOES OVERCOME TO ODDS AND MAKE IT TO
THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM A FEW RAIN DROPS IN
TOTAL TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. GROUND OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM THIS AS
ONLY A HANDFUL OF SITES IN THE NORTH BAY HAVE REPORTED A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN SO FAR. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS STRATOCUMULUS
BELOW THE HIGHER CIRROSTRATUS DECK. THESE CLOUDS AND RADAR RETURNS
ARE ARRIVING AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
SLANTED FROM SPOKANE TO EUREKA AND PUSHING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MEASURABLE RAIN
WILL NOT BEGIN EN MASSE UNTIL AFTER 6PM FOR THE NORTH BAY BEFORE
SPREADING SLOWLY SPREADING MOSTLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE IMMEDIATE BAY
AREA UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE TRAJECTORY OF THE INITIAL
MOMENTUM IS HEADING EASTWARD RATHER THAN SOUTHWARD.
IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT... A RATHER MOIST WESTERLY
DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN WILL SET UP BY FRIDAY... WITH A TROPICAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUME OF 1.15-1.35" AIMED OUT OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE PLUME WILL INITIALLY BE AIMED AT NORTH BAY ON
FRIDAY...THE IMMEDIATE BAY AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THE MONTEREY
BAY AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY. UNFORTUNATELY... THIS FLOW IS DEVOID
OF A SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISM OUTSIDE OF THE ALWAYS PRESENT
TERRAIN INDUCED OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. THUS... THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL
BE CLOUDY AND SEE VERY LIGHT INTERMITTENT PRECIPITATION FOR LOWER
ELEVATION SITES AS MINOR UNMODELED DISTURBANCES TAP INTO THE
ATMOSPHERIC WATER SUPPLY ABOVE OUR HEADS. OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL
LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR COASTAL RANGES
AND RIDGES... SUCH AS THE MARIN HEADLANDS... SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS... AND BIG SUR.
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON... A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RAPIDLY AMPLIFIES IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WHICH WILL HELP TO
ORGANIZE A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA DOWNSTREAM. THIS NEWLY
ORGANIZED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA ON SATURDAY AND
BRING A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST OF THESE VORTICITY MAX WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH THE
BACKSIDE OF THE NEWLY FORMED UPPER LOW AND LEAD TO A JET STREAK
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THIS PATTERN IS TYPICALLY RATHER WINDY
AS THERE IS AN ADDITIVE EFFECT OF THE WIND ITSELF AS WELL AS THE
STORM MOMENTUM. ALONG THE COAST... BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY THEN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN LOOMS FOR MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. 240 HOUR MODEL RUNS
HAVE ALIGNED FOR THE FIRST TIME AND SHOW DRY WEATHER FOR NEXT
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 9:30 AM PST THURSDAY...VFR TODAY. TAFS WERE ALL
ADJUSTED TO DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN BASED OFF LATEST HRRR AND NAM
MODELS. NOW LOOKS LIKE -RA GENERALLY STAYS OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL
12Z (WHICH MAY BE OPTIMISTIC). COMBINATION OF -SHRA AND -RA FOR
TOMORROW. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH LIGHT
VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
-SHRA BY OR AFTER 12Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 06Z.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY WITH THE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE. -SHRA AND -RA LIKELY DELAYED TO AFTER THE FORECAST
WINDOW. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 09:30 AM PST THURSDAY...LOOK FOR FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL
BUILD TODAY WITH FAST MOVING FORERUNNER WAVES ARRIVING LATE THIS
MORNING. THIS ENERGETIC AND BUILDING SWELL WILL RESULT IN LARGE
BREAKING WAVES AT OFFSHORE REEFS AND SAND BARS ALONG THE COAST.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SEA STATE WILL DETERIORATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WINDS INCREASE
OUT OF THE NORTH.
&&
.BEACHES...AS OF 10:15 AM PST THURSDAY... WESTERLY SWELL WILL BUILD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY WITH ENERGETIC FORERUNNER WAVES ARRIVING
THIS MORNING. THE LARGEST WAVES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE SURF
ZONE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXCESSIVE WAVE RUN UP IS EXPECTED WITH THESE WAVES WITH LONG LULLS
BETWEEN WAVE SETS...INCREASING THE RISK OF BEING WASHED OFF OF THE
BEACH BY SNEAKER WAVES. LARGE SURF IS EXPECTED WITH THESE WAVES AS
WELL AS STRONG RIP CURRENTS.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COASTLINE SONOMA TO BIG SUR
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION: BELL
MARINE: BELL
BEACHES: DRP
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1021 AM PST THU JAN 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF
TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH BAY LATER IN THE
DAY...AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA BY LATE
FRIDAY...AND INTO THE MONTEREY BAY AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE ON SATURDAY AND THEN INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY...WITH LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 10:15 AM PST THURSDAY... HIGH CLOUDS PRECEEDING
AN ADVANCING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THIS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM JUST INLAND OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COASTLINE SOUTHWARD TO THE IMMEDIATE OREGON/CALIFORNIA
COASTLINE... AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
RADAR IMAGERY IS PICKING UP LIGHT REFLECTIVITY RETURNS OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM MENDOCINO COUNTY NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AT THIS TIME. RADAR IS ALSO PICKING UP SOME MARGINAL
REFLECTIVITES OF 15DBZ OR LESS OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAY AREA...
HOWEVER IT IS VERY UNLIKELY THAT PRECIPITATION IS MAKING IT TO
THE SURFACE. LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MODELS SUGGEST MEASURABLE
RAIN WILL NOT BEGIN EN MASSE UNTIL THIS EVENING FOR THE NORTH BAY
BEFORE SPREADING SLOWLY SPREADING MOSTLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE IMMEDIATE BAY
AREA UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE TRAJECTORY OF THE INITIAL
MOMENTUM IS HEADING EASTWARD RATHER THAN SOUTHWARD.
IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT... A RATHER MOIST WESTERLY
DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN WILL SET UP BY FRIDAY... WITH A TROPICAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUME OF 1.15-1.35" AIMED OUT OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE PLUME WILL INITIALLY BE AIMED AT NORTH BAY ON
FRIDAY...THE IMMEDIATE BAY AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THE MONTEREY
BAY AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY. UNFORTUNATELY... THIS FLOW IS DEVOID
OF A SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISM OUTSIDE OF THE ALWAYS PRESENT
TERRAIN INDUCED OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. THUS... THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL
BE CLOUDY AND SEE VERY LIGHT INTERMITTENT PRECIPITATION FOR LOWER
ELEVATION SITES AS MINOR UNMODELED DISTURBANCES TAP INTO THE
ATMOSPHERIC WATER SUPPLY ABOVE OUR HEADS. OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL
LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR COASTAL RANGES
AND RIDGES... SUCH AS THE MARIN HEADLANDS... SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS... AND BIG SUR.
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON... A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RAPIDLY AMPLIFIES IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WHICH WILL HELP TO
ORGANIZE A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA DOWNSTREAM. THIS NEWLY
ORGANIZED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA ON SATURDAY AND
BRING A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST OF THESE VORTICITY MAX WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH THE
BACKSIDE OF THE NEWLY FORMED UPPER LOW AND LEAD TO A JET STREAK
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THIS PATTERN IS TYPICALLY RATHER WINDY
AS THERE IS AN ADDITIVE EFFECT OF THE WIND ITSELF AS WELL AS THE
STORM MOMENTUM. ALONG THE COAST... BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
NO FORECAST UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE IS ISSUED.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:42 AM PST THURSDAY...SATELLITE
SHOWS INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE NORTH BAY
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...NOW FOCUSING ON THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE PLUME ARE FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY APPROACH OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY TODAY...WITH
THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE NORTH BAY COUNTIES BY THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO MOSTLY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
NORTH BAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED
TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE SF BAY AREA AND INTO THE
MONTEREY BAY AREA BY LATE FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO BE
LIGHT...EXCEPT IN OROGRAPHICALLY-FAVORED REGIONS OF THE NORTH BAY
WHERE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED.
A MOIST ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY...BUT FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK THAT
DAY. THUS...MOST AREAS WILL PROBABLY BE RELATIVELY DRY DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
SATURDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL OUTPUT
CONCERNING HOW MUCH RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE 00Z GFS BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
ACROSS ONLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY FROM MONTEREY BAY SOUTH. THE 00Z NAM ALSO
FORECASTS RENEWED RAINFALL ON SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT PLACES THE RAIN
FARTHER NORTH...BASICALLY ACROSS ALL AREAS SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN
GATE. NOW...THE 00Z ECMWF CONTINUES EARLIER TRENDS OF BRINGING
MUCH LESS PRECIP TO THE AREA AS THIS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 0.5" TO
1.5" IN THE NORTH BAY...WITH LOCALLY UP TO 2 INCHES IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF SONOMA COUNTY. SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE ANYWHERE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH TO
UP TO AN INCH. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MOSTLY END BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH MIDDAY
SUNDAY...BUT THEN PICK UP FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY. LOCALLY STRONG
AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST.
MONDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY. BEYOND MONDAY THE GENERAL
IDEA IS FOR CONTINUE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN...BUT THE SPECIFICS ON TIMING AND RAINFALL INTENSITY ARE
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 9:30 AM PST THURSDAY...VFR TODAY. TAFS WERE ALL
ADJUSTED TO DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN BASED OFF LATEST HRRR AND NAM
MODELS. NOW LOOKS LIKE -RA GENERALLY STAYS OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL
12Z (WHICH MAY BE OPTIMISTIC). COMBINATION OF -SHRA AND -RA FOR
TOMORROW. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH LIGHT
VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
-SHRA BY OR AFTER 12Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 06Z.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY WITH THE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE. -SHRA AND -RA LIKELY DELAYED TO AFTER THE FORECAST
WINDOW. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 09:30 AM PST THURSDAY...LOOK FOR FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL
BUILD TODAY WITH FAST MOVING FORERUNNER WAVES ARRIVING LATE THIS
MORNING. THIS ENERGETIC AND BUILDING SWELL WILL RESULT IN LARGE
BREAKING WAVES AT OFFSHORE REEFS AND SAND BARS ALONG THE COAST.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SEA STATE WILL DETERIORATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WINDS INCREASE
OUT OF THE NORTH.
&&
.BEACHES...AS OF 10:15 AM PST THURSDAY... WESTERLY SWELL WILL BUILD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY WITH ENERGETIC FORERUNNER WAVES ARRIVING
THIS MORNING. THE LARGEST WAVES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE SURF
ZONE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXCESSIVE WAVE RUN UP IS EXPECTED WITH THESE WAVES WITH LONG LULLS
BETWEEN WAVE SETS...INCREASING THE RISK OF BEING WASHED OFF OF THE
BEACH BY SNEAKER WAVES. LARGE SURF IS EXPECTED WITH THESE WAVES AS
WELL AS STRONG RIP CURRENTS.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COASTLINE FROM 4PM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 4 PM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 4 PM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 4 PM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 10 AM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 4 PM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 4 PM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION: BELL
MARINE: BELL
BEACHES: DRP
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
932 AM PST THU JAN 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF
TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH BAY LATER IN THE
DAY...AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA BY LATE
FRIDAY...AND INTO THE MONTEREY BAY AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE ON SATURDAY AND THEN INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY...WITH LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:42 AM PST THURSDAY...SATELLITE SHOWS
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE NORTH BAY FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...NOW FOCUSING ON THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE PLUME ARE FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY APPROACH OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY TODAY...WITH
THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE NORTH BAY COUNTIES BY THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO MOSTLY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
NORTH BAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED
TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE SF BAY AREA AND INTO THE
MONTEREY BAY AREA BY LATE FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO BE
LIGHT...EXCEPT IN OROGRAPHICALLY-FAVORED REGIONS OF THE NORTH BAY
WHERE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED.
A MOIST ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY...BUT FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK THAT
DAY. THUS...MOST AREAS WILL PROBABLY BE RELATIVELY DRY DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
SATURDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL OUTPUT
CONCERNING HOW MUCH RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE 00Z GFS BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
ACROSS ONLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY FROM MONTEREY BAY SOUTH. THE 00Z NAM ALSO
FORECASTS RENEWED RAINFALL ON SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT PLACES THE RAIN
FARTHER NORTH...BASICALLY ACROSS ALL AREAS SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN
GATE. NOW...THE 00Z ECMWF CONTINUES EARLIER TRENDS OF BRINGING
MUCH LESS PRECIP TO THE AREA AS THIS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 0.5" TO
1.5" IN THE NORTH BAY...WITH LOCALLY UP TO 2 INCHES IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF SONOMA COUNTY. SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE ANYWHERE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH TO
UP TO AN INCH. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MOSTLY END BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH MIDDAY
SUNDAY...BUT THEN PICK UP FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY. LOCALLY STRONG
AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST.
MONDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY. BEYOND MONDAY THE GENERAL
IDEA IS FOR CONTINUE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN...BUT THE SPECIFICS ON TIMING AND RAINFALL INTENSITY ARE
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 9:30 AM PST THURSDAY...VFR TODAY. TAFS WERE ALL
ADJUSTED TO DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN BASED OFF LATEST HRRR AND NAM
MODELS. NOW LOOKS LIKE -RA GENERALLY STAYS OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL
12Z (WHICH MAY BE OPTIMISTIC). COMBINATION OF -SHRA AND -RA FOR
TOMORROW. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH LIGHT
VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
-SHRA BY OR AFTER 12Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 06Z.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY WITH THE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE. -SHRA AND -RA LIKELY DELAYED TO AFTER THE FORECAST
WINDOW. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 09:30 AM PST THURSDAY...LOOK FOR FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL
BUILD TODAY WITH FAST MOVING FORERUNNER WAVES ARRIVING LATE THIS
MORNING. THIS ENERGETIC AND BUILDING SWELL WILL RESULT IN LARGE
BREAKING WAVES AT OFFSHORE REEFS AND SAND BARS ALONG THE COAST.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SEA STATE WILL DETERIORATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WINDS INCREASE
OUT OF THE NORTH.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ALL COASTAL LOCATIONS FROM 4 PM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 4 PM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 4 PM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 4 PM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 10 AM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 4 PM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 4 PM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: BELL
MARINE: BELL
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
419 PM EST THU JAN 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
21Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERN
STREAM FLOW FORMS A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST INTO
WESTERN CANADA BEFORE DIVING BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND CARVING OUT
A LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. A STRONG
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS BEGINNING TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH/ENERGY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF...AND THIS WILL HELP
TO ACCELERATE THIS ENERGY EASTWARD AND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. WHY IS THIS GOOD NEWS FOR OUR
FORECAST BEYOND THIS EVENING? WELL...INITIALLY AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE...WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH LOTS OF
RAIN/ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...ONCE THIS ENERGY
PASSES TO OUR EAST...THIS WET PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN WITH US FOR
SEVERAL DAYS WILL COME TO AN ABRUPT END...AND RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF VERY PLEASANT WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WE
ARE ALMOST THERE EVERYONE.
TROUGH AXIS IS VERY EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY PUSHING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A DRAMATIC AND SHARP BACK EDGE TO
THE DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PASSING EAST OF THE MS DELTA AS
OF 4 PM EST. A POWERFUL 160+ KNOT SOUTHERN STREAM JET IS CURRENTLY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF AND
THEN MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE
ABUNDANT COLUMN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS SEEN RAPIDLY
ADVECTING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA WITHIN THIS STRONG
UPPER FLOW. HEIGHT FALLS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH ARE
CURRENTLY OVERSPREADING OUR FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW THAT THE BEST DEEP LAYER
SYNOPTIC FORCING/QVECTOR CONVERGENCE IS RIGHT NOW PASSING THROUGH
OUR REGION LATE...AND WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST AFTER 00Z. IT IS
THIS FORCING THAT IS RESULTING IN THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SEEN
MOVING IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ON REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY.
AT THE SURFACE...WHAT HAS BECOME A RATHER SHARP TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST EARLY THIS EVENING TO ACTUALLY
CLOSE OFF INTO A WEAK LOW AS IT CROSSES THE FL WEST COAST. SOME
INDICATION THAT THIS HAS ALREADY HAPPENED. THIS LOW/TROUGH AXIS
WILL NOW QUICKLY LIFT OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS. THE TROUGH AXIS WHICH HAS BEEN QUASI-
STATIONARY FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS OR SO...IS NOW TRANSITIONING INTO
A COLD FRONT...WITH GFS/NAM SHOWING DECENT FGEN FIELDS CROSSING
THE PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL
AGEOSTROPIC CIRCULATIONS WITH THIS FGEN BANDS ARE ONLY FURTHER
ENHANCING THE BROAD UPWARD SYNOPTIC MOTION...AND LIKELY WILL
RESULT IN A FEW BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH 00Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
FORECAST WILL FEATURE 100% POPS FOR ALL ZONES FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT STEADY DROPS THROUGH THE REGION.
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OUR FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTH-INTERIOR
ZONES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THESE ZONES HAVE SEEN THE HEAVIEST
RAIN DURING THE PREVIOUS 48 HOURS...AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE
SOME ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE MID-EVENING HOURS.
HIGHLY SATURATED GROUNDS WILL MAKE IT EASIER FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREA ACROSS THE WATCH AREA
SHOULD ANY HEAVIER BANDING WORK ACROSS THE AREA. THE GOOD NEWS FOR
THIS AREA IS THAT THE RAIN WILL BE ENDING QUICKLY LATER THIS
EVENING...ENTERING INTO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TO ALLOW
THE GROUND TO DRY OUT AND RECOVER.
AFTER 00Z...RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
AS THE LOW LEVEL FRONT AND THE DEEP LAYER SYNOPTIC FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PIVOT EASTWARD FROM OUR REGION.
HAVE REMOVED RAIN CHANCES FROM MOST ZONES AFTER 03Z...AND EVEN ALL
INTERIOR SOUTHERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY TAKE LONGER TO BEGIN
TO REALLY CLEAR OUR SKIES OUT OF CLOUDS THOUGH. THE UPPER LEVELS
WILL DRY OUT IN A BIG HURRY BEHIND THE TROUGH AS DEEP LAYER
SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREAD THE PENINSULA. HOWEVER...THIS SETUP OF LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER-TOP RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS USUALLY A
GOOD SETUP FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER STRATUS AT NIGHT. THIS
LOWER CLOUD COVER MAY BE WITH US THROUGH MUCH OF THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS...BUT SHOULD REALLY ONLY BE A CONCERN TO THE AVIATION
COMMUNITY. EVEN THESE LOWER STRATUS SHOULD BE BREAKING UP TOWARD
DAWN...AND AM FORECASTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR FRIDAY. THE SUN
IS LIKELY TO BE FILTERED AT TIMES THROUGH HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM JET WILL STILL BE
PRESENT...BUT OVERALL THE FORECAST WILL BE FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.
AREAS OF DENSE MARINE FOG OVER TAMPA BAY AND THE SURROUNDING
COASTAL WATERS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS WE
AWAIT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT SHOULD SEE VISIBILITIES IMPROVE
OVER THESE MARINE WATERS ONCE THE WINDS SHIFT NORTHEAST AND SOME
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BEGINS ADVECTING IN. HAVE EXTENDED THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR THESE MARINE ZONES UNTIL 00Z...BUT DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY FURTHER EXTENSIONS OF THIS HAZARD.
COOLER TEMPS WILL BE FILTERING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH
READINGS BY SUNRISE RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 40S NORTH OF THE
I-4 CORRIDOR...TO GENERALLY BETWEEN 48 AND 54 FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON REACH THE LOWER/MIDDLE
60S.
THE COLDEST NIGHT AHEAD WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. WIDESPREAD LOW/MID 40S ARE IN THE FORECAST...WITH LIKELY
SOME SPOTS ACROSS THE NATURE COAST DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S.
A VERY PLEASANT DAY UNDER THE CONTROL OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ON TAP
FOR SATURDAY. FORECAST WILL HIGHLIGHT PLENTY OF SUN...LIGHT
WINDS...AND TEMPS RAPIDLY RECOVERING FROM THE COLDER EARLY MORNING
READINGS TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MID/LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)... MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH PROGRESSIVE EL NINO PATTERN CONTINUING. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
SATURDAY THEN UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN
RESPONSE TO NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING INTO THE DESERT SW
SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION SATURDAY THEN
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY PRODUCING DRY AND SEASONALLY
COOL CONDITIONS FOR A PLEASANT WEEKEND AREAWIDE.
NEXT WEEK THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MON/TUE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MID WEEK WHILE LOCAL MOISTURE AND
TEMPS MODERATE AND INCREASE AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY.
SURFACE STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE GULF COAST REGION TUESDAY THEN THE FL
PENINSULA WEDNESDAY WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE CONDITIONS TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOTS OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH A MIX
OF IFR/MVFR CONDITION. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BETWEEN
00-03Z ALTHOUGH PERIOD OF MAINLY MVFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO ALL
TAF SITES AFTER 09Z AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE
TAF PERIOD...AND BEYOND. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING
AND WILL BE STEADY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS
LOW SINKS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. AREAS OF
RAINFALL WILL FINALLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER WINDS AND SEAS WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO INCREASE.
CAUTIONARY LEVEL WINDS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...WITH PERIODS OF ADVISORY WINDS NOW EXPECTED. THIS
PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS
WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE DURING FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY FRIDAY...RESIDUAL SEAS WILL BE
SLOWER TO SUBSIDE...AND ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS UNTIL MID/LATE MORNING FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TOWARD THE REGION DURING FRIDAY...AND SETTLES DIRECTLY OVER
THE AREA SATURDAY. THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC
SUNDAY. AFTER THE ADVISORY ENDS FRIDAY MORNING...GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS...LOW SEAS...AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
DURATION OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND RAIN WILL BE IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THIS FRONT CLEAR THE REGION.
MUCH DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL THEN ARRIVE ON NORTHWEST
WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE REGION DURING FRIDAY...AND SETTLES OVERHEAD DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ENOUGH DRY AIR IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY TO RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR A BRIEF TIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ERC VALUES WILL BE LOW IN THE WAKE OF
ALL THE RAIN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WHICH WILL PREVENT ANY RED FLAG
CONDITIONS FROM OCCURRING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IS AGAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A SLOW INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL THEN PREVENT
CRITICAL LEVELS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL...
AREAS OF SEA FOG NEAR THE COASTS OF PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...PASCO...
MANATEE...AND HERNANDO COUNTIES WILL END THIS EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG CONCERNS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 50 63 47 69 / 40 0 0 0
FMY 56 68 47 71 / 40 0 0 0
GIF 50 66 46 70 / 50 0 0 0
SRQ 53 63 46 68 / 40 0 0 0
BKV 45 63 37 71 / 40 0 0 0
SPG 53 62 52 69 / 40 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-DESOTO-HIGHLANDS-INLAND
CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS
FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO
60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER
FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...DAVIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
1228 PM EST THU JAN 28 2016
.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Friday]...
Mainly IFR conditions due to cigs will persist at the TAF sites
through this afternoon. By this evening though, should see clouds
begin to clear from west to east. Light showers are spread across
the area and will continue on and off this afternoon.
&&
.Prev Discussion [1005 AM EST]...
.Near Term [Through Today]...
The rain continues to push to the east and diminish this morning
with only an area of light showers across the eastern half of the
CWA. There is an area of rain to the southwest of the CWA that the
HRRR develops and spreads into the land areas this
afternoon...mainly east of Panama City to Dothan. The HRRR has had
a good handle on the showers the past few hours and with this
update trended the PoPs more towards a combination of the HRRR
and ECAM which resulted in increasing PoPs for this afternoon. So
although there is a diminishing trend this morning, do expect to
see another round this afternoon.
Hourly temperature trends this morning are on track, but overall
high temperatures may be a tad on the high side, especially if the
second round of rain pans out.
.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
Nearly zonal flow will fill in behind the exiting mid/upper level
trough. Surface high pressure and a much drier air mass will build
in from the west and center over the local region by late Friday.
The high will then slide to our east with low level flow becoming
southerly on Saturday. We will see sunny and dry conditions with
near to slightly above seasonal temperatures.
.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
Enhanced mid/upper level ridging will develop late in the weekend
and early next week ahead of a deepening low pressure system moving
out of the Four Corners region and into the Central Plains by midday
Tuesday. This system will continue to deepen as it lifts
northeastward to the Great Lakes area by 12z Wednesday with showers
and possibly thunderstorms spreading across the local Tri-state
area Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of the associated cold front.
Min and max temps will be above seasonal levels through the
extended period with max temps as high and the lower to mid 70s
both Monday and Tuesday and min temps as warm as the mid to upper
50s both Monday night and Tuesday night.
.Marine...
Cautionary level winds and seas will continue through tonight
west of the Apalachicola river. These conditions will spRead to
the eastern legs tonight. Winds and seas will begin to decrease
Friday and become southerly on Saturday as surface high pressure
slides to our east.
.Fire Weather...
Moist conditions are expected this morning with areas of light rain.
Drier air will move in behind the front for Friday afternoon with
min RH values dipping into the 30s over a large part of the area.
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.
.Hydrology...
Minor flooding continues for the Apalachicola River at Blountstown
due to releases from Woodruff Dam. The river along this stretch
continues in a broad flat crest with recession expected to begin
tonight. The lower part of the Choctawhatchee River basin is also
in flood. Caryville is forecast to drop below flood stage on
Thursday. Bruce is above moderate flood stage and is forecast to
crest Thursday morning. Additional rainfall totals over the next
36 hours will generally be under a half an inch, except 0.5-1 inch
totals will be possible across the eastern FL Big Bend. This is
not expected to produce any additional flooding.
For detailed information on specific river stages and forecasts,
please visit http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 40 64 39 67 44 / 10 0 0 0 0
Panama City 44 61 46 65 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 37 60 38 65 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 38 60 36 65 43 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 40 62 38 67 43 / 30 0 0 0 0
Cross City 41 64 39 67 43 / 40 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 45 62 46 64 52 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FIEUX
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...FIEUX
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...WOOL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
410 PM EST THU JAN 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST LIFTS
FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH AND COASTAL FRONT. THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWED
H85 COLD ADVECTION. THE FORECAST AREA WAS UNDER THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE H25 JET. RAIN WAS MAINLY BEING SUPPORTED BY THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND JET. THE MODELS INDICATE SUPPORT SHIFTING
EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. USED THE HRRR FOR THE TIMING.
RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT MAINLY LIGHT RAIN. DECREASING CLOUDS WILL
OCCUR TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.
COLD ADVECTION AND CLEARING WILL BRING COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
THE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER AIR WILL SHIFT INTO THE SE CONUS...ENSURING FAIR
WEATHER. GUIDANCE INDICATING NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
FRI...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SAT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER SHIFTS TO OUR S/E.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO CENTRAL CONUS...WITH
UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST. SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED JUST TO OUR SE SUNDAY WILL SHIFT EAST...AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THOUGH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
NOTED...GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE FRONT INTO OUR REGION LATE
TUE/WED TIME FRAME. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH PATCHES OF LIGHT
RAIN CROSSING THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TAF SITES
AROUND 29/00Z ALLOWING RAIN TO END. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR
POSSIBLY LINGERING IN THE 06Z-09Z TIME FRAME.
STILL EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT FOG
THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT VFR ALL TAF SITES BY 29/12Z. THE GFS LAMP AND
NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTED GUSTS AROUND 18 KNOTS BEGINNING
AROUND 29/15Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
209 PM EST THU JAN 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST LIFTS
FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH AND COASTAL FRONT. THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWED
H85 COLD ADVECTION. THE FORECAST AREA WAS UNDER THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE H25 JET. RAIN WAS MAINLY BEING SUPPORTED BY THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND JET. THE MODELS INDICATE SUPPORT SHIFTING
EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. USED THE HRRR FOR THE TIMING.
RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT MAINLY LIGHT RAIN. DECREASING CLOUDS WILL
OCCUR TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.
COLD ADVECTION AND CLEARING WILL BRING COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
THE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER AIR WILL SHIFT INTO THE SE CONUS...ENSURING FAIR
WEATHER. GUIDANCE INDICATING NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
FRI...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SAT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER SHIFTS TO OUR S/E.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO CENTRAL CONUS...WITH
UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST. SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED JUST TO OUR SE SUNDAY WILL SHIFT EAST...AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THOUGH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
NOTED...GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE FRONT INTO OUR REGION LATE
TUE/WED TIME FRAME. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND FOG WERE OCCURRING AT TAF ISSUANCE
TIME. THE MOISTURE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND
COASTAL FRONT. THE MODELS AND SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE SUPPORT
SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. DECREASING CLOUDS WILL
OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.
LINGERING HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT FOG THROUGH THE
NIGHT. USED THE HRRR FOR THE TIMING OF DIMINISHING RAIN AND LEANED
TOWARD THE GFS LAMP FOR THE CEILING AND VISIBILITY FORECAST. THE
GFS LAMP AND NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTED GUSTS
AROUND 18 KNOTS BEGINNING AROUND 15Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
124 PM EST THU JAN 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH AND COASTAL FRONT. RAIN WAS OCCURRING OVER MOST
OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWED H85
COLD ADVECTION. THE FORECAST AREA WAS UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF THE H25 JET. THE RAIN WAS MAINLY BEING SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH AND JET. THE MODELS INDICATE SUPPORT SHIFTING EAST OF
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. USED THE HRRR FOR THE
TIMING. RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT MAINLY LIGHT RAIN. DECREASING CLOUDS
WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR. LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COLD ADVECTION AND CLEARING WILL BRING COOL TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. THE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE
30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER AIR WILL SHIFT INTO THE SE CONUS...ENSURING FAIR
WEATHER. GUIDANCE INDICATING NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
FRI...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SAT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER SHIFTS TO OUR S/E.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO CENTRAL CONUS...WITH
UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST. SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED JUST TO OUR SE SUNDAY WILL SHIFT EAST...AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THOUGH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
NOTED...GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE FRONT INTO OUR REGION LATE
TUE/WED TIME FRAME. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH AND COASTAL FRONT. RAIN WAS OCCURRING WITH IFR
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWED H85
COLD ADVECTION. THE FORECAST AREA WAS UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF THE H25 JET. THE RAIN WAS MAINLY BEING SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH AND JET. THE MODELS INDICATE SUPPORT SHIFTING EAST OF
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. DECREASING CLOUDS
WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR. LINGERING HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT FOG
THROUGH THE NIGHT. USED THE HRRR FOR THE TIMING OF DIMINISHING
RAIN AND LEANED TOWARD THE GFS LAMP FOR THE CEILING AND VISIBILITY
FORECAST. THE GFS LAMP AND NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL
SUPPORTS GUSTS AROUND 18 KNOTS BEGINNING AROUND 15Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1222 PM EST THU JAN 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH AND COASTAL FRONT. RAIN WAS OCCURRING OVER MOST
OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWED H85
COLD ADVECTION. THE FORECAST AREA WAS UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF THE H25 JET. THE RAIN WAS MAINLY BEING SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH AND JET. THE MODELS INDICATE SUPPORT SHIFTING EAST OF
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. USED THE HRRR FOR THE
TIMING. RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT MAINLY LIGHT RAIN. DECREASING CLOUDS
WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR. LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COLD ADVECTION AND CLEARING WILL BRING COOL TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. THE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE
30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT SHOULD BE SUNNY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
SATURDAY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT AND WARMING
EXPECTED AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS. SO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD WITH FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS....FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A DRY PATTERN WITH A PRESSURE RIDGE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST DOMINATING THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS KEEP
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
MODELS SHOW A MOISTURE INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT POPS NEAR 20 PERCENT TUESDAY AND HIGHER
POPS BY WEDNESDAY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH AND COASTAL FRONT. RAIN WAS OCCURRING WITH IFR
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWED H85
COLD ADVECTION. THE FORECAST AREA WAS UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF THE H25 JET. THE RAIN WAS MAINLY BEING SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH AND JET. THE MODELS INDICATE SUPPORT SHIFTING EAST OF
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. DECREASING CLOUDS
WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR. LINGERING HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT FOG
THROUGH THE NIGHT. USED THE HRRR FOR THE TIMING OF DIMINISHING
RAIN AND LEANED TOWARD THE GFS LAMP FOR THE CEILING AND VISIBILITY
FORECAST. THE GFS LAMP AND NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL
SUPPORTS GUSTS AROUND 18 KNOTS BEGINNING AROUND 15Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1150 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016
Updated the forecast today mainly for sky cover with clouds a bit
slower to increase from the north with much of CWA still enjoying
sunny skies at 10 am. Otherwise rest of forecast looks good
today. Broken to overcast clouds with bases at or below 6k ft
along and north of I-80 (just north of CWA currently), will
spread se across central IL during this afternoon, moving into
northern counties during midday. These lower clouds due to a
clipper system over WI and northern IL that digs se across IN and
eastern IL by sunset. Brunt of its moisture to stay ne of central
IL this afternoon, though could be a few flurries or sprinkles far
ne CWA, ne of I-74. Temps currently in the upper 30s and lower
40s, and should only climb a few more degrees with 40F northern
CWA and mid 40s southern/sw CWA. Breezy WSW winds of 10-20 mph and
gusts of 20-30 mph to turn West to NW during the afternoon as a
trof slides se across central IL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016
Clipper system noted on 08z/2am water vapor imagery over Lake
Superior will continue to track eastward today, remaining well to
the northeast of central Illinois. Meanwhile, low clouds in the
wake of the system extending back into the eastern Dakotas will
begin to sink southward. NAM RH profiles appear to be a bit too
aggressive with the southward push, so have trended toward the
slower GFS. Based on current satellite trends and GFS forecast,
have started the day mostly sunny across the board, followed by
increasing clouds from north to south during the late morning into
the afternoon. By the end of the day, skies will be mostly cloudy
across the entire KILX CWA. NAM hints at some light precip skirting
the far NE this afternoon as a trailing trough axis swings through
the area. HRRR is even more bullish, with the latest run showing
precip extending as far west as the I-55 corridor. Think this is
way overdone, so will disregard the HRRR solution. Will however
mention a chance for flurries/sprinkles along/northeast of a
Champaign to Paris line.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016
Substantial warm-up is still on tap for this weekend as zonal flow
pattern develops across the CONUS and a Pacific-origin airmass
arrives. High temperatures on Friday will be in the lower 40s, then
will climb well into the 50s for both Saturday and Sunday. An
approaching frontal boundary will spread clouds and perhaps a few
rain showers into the area on Sunday: however, weak upper support
and a lack of deep-layer moisture warrants only low chance PoPs.
Big weather story continues to be the development of a major winter
storm early next week. 00z Jan 28 models are in excellent agreement
with the track/timing of this system, and the thermal profiles of
the individual models have also come into better agreement.
GFS/ECMWF/GEM all show surface low pressure developing over the
Texas panhandle Monday evening...then tracking northeastward into
northwest Illinois by Tuesday evening. This particular track will
keep the KILX CWA in the warm sector of the system and lead to
mainly a rain event. Earlier concerns about a potential period of
freezing rain Monday night have been eased with the latest model
run, as surface temps are expected to remain above freezing and the
elevated warm layer achieves max temps of 5-8C by 12z Tue. Have
therefore gone with likely PoPs for rain everywhere Monday night
into Tuesday. With warm/moist air surging northward ahead of the
approaching system, some fairly impressive instability will develop
across the central/eastern CWA Tuesday afternoon. GFS SbCAPEs reach
600-800J/kg while lifted index values drop into the -3 to -5C range.
In addition, 0-6km bulk shear increases to 70-80kt as a strong mid-
level jet develops in advance of the short-wave trough. Given such
strong mid-winter parameters, have added a chance for thunderstorms
to the forecast east of the I-55 corridor on Tuesday.
Both the GFS and ECMWF show the dry slot of the system arriving late
Tuesday afternoon/evening, leading to the end of the significant
precipitation. Based on current projections, it appears rainfall
amounts Monday night through Tuesday will range from 1 to 1.50. As
the low lifts into the Great Lakes, colder air will arrive Tuesday
night and deformation zone precip will arrive from the west.
Thermal profiles are initially warm enough to support rain early
in the evening, but then cool sufficiently for snow Tuesday night
into Wednesday. While the vast majority of the snow will fall
west of the Mississippi River across Iowa/Wisconsin, some light
snow accumulation will be possible across the western half of the
CWA as the precip departs and comes to an end on Wednesday. In
addition, strong winds gusting to at least 30mph and temperatures
falling into the 20s and 30s will make Wednesday a blustery/cold
day.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016
The leading edge of an area of low clouds is moving its way into
central IL from the north at about 20-25 mph. The clouds on the
leading edge are mainly diurnally driven, so the ceilings are up
around 5000 ft. The lower, MVFR ceilings are back in northern IA
and southern WI with the best forcing associated with the
shortwave trough. Thus, have adjusted the previous TAFs to slow
down the timing on the MVFR ceilings to early this evening.
The biggest question was how quickly the lower clouds and MVFR
ceilings would depart central and eastern IL. The NAM and HRRR
want to keep the low level moisture and clouds in longer, while
the GFS and many of the short range models move the clouds out by
late this evening. The CONSSHort blend has been doing a good job
with the movement of the clouds. Thus, will lean toward the CONS
Short and will keep the MVFR ceilings in for central and eastern
IL TAF sites until 06-09z and then scatter out the clouds as a
surface ridge axis and subsidence approach from the west.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Miller
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1131 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016
CLOUD COVER IS MOVING SOUTH QUICKER THAN FORECAST. AREA RADARS
HAVE AN AREA OF MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE RADAR RETURNS TAKES A
BULK OF THE THE PRECIPITATION MAINLY INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AND
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.
HOWEVER...TRENDS FROM THE RAP SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS FAR WEST AS A MANCHESTER IA TO
KEWANEE IL LINE. IF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORM OF SNOW
SHOWERS...ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD MELT ON CONTACT WITH THE GROUND.
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS AM. IN ITS WAKE... A FEW WEAKER IMPULSES WERE
NOTED ACROSS MN AND WI DIVING S/E ALONG FRONT FLANK OF HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OVER WESTERN NOAM. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A FEW FLURRIES AND
SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THESE DISTURBANCES. MSAS SFC ANALYSIS PLACES
DEEP LOW OF 990 MB OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ATTENDANT TO POTENT GREAT LAKES
SHORTWAVE. COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW THROUGH NORTHERN MN. WEAK SFC
TROUGH NOTED ACROSS OUR CWA... BUT AIRMASS QUITE DRY AND WEAK FORCING
PRECLUDES ANY CLOUDS ATTIM WITH MAIN CLOUD SHIELD TO OUR NORTH ATTENDANT
TO THE COLD FRONT AND CAA/CYCLONIC FLOW. DESPITE THE GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES... BRISK WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND PASSING 925 MB THERMAL RIDGE
ARE HELPING TO HOLD TEMPS UP MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S... WHICH
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE DATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016
MIXING AND STRENGTHENING CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BRING SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS
THIS AM... WHICH COUPLED WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO
BRISK CONDITIONS WITH WINDS GENERALLY BECOMING SUSTAINED AT 14-20 KTS
GUSTING TO AROUND 25-28 KTS PER WIND PROFILES THROUGH AND ATOP THE MIXED
LAYER. THIS FLOW WILL SHUTTLE IN CLOUDS CURRENTLY TO OUR NORTH... THUS
SUNNY TO START THEN LOOK FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY. FOR HIGHS TDY
GENERALLY LEANED AT OR A BIT ABOVE WARMEST GUIDANCE PER DEEP MIXING ALONG
WITH SUNNY AND MILD START. BEFORE CLOUDS ARRIVE ANTICIPATE TEMPS CLIMBING
MAINLY INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...EXCEPT FAR NORTH WHERE MAY REMAIN
IN MID 30S AS CLOUDS ARRIVE THERE FIRST. WHEN THE CLOUDS DO ARRIVE THEY
WILL SEAL OFF TEMP RISE AND WITH DEVELOPING CAA AT 925 MB WILL LIKELY
SEE READINGS HOLD STEADY IF NOT SLIP BACK A FEW DEGS. KEPT SMALL PRECIP
CHCS FOR THIS AFTN MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN IA AND NORTHWEST IL
BEING IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO WEAKER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. WEAK LIFT BUT
WHEN COMBINED WITH VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY LEAD TO SHALLOW
WEAK CONVECTION... THUS 15-20 POPS FOR ISOLD SHOWERS WITH THERMAL PARAMETERS
SUGGESTING RAIN/SNOW AND EVEN PERHAPS SLEET.
TONIGHT...ANTICIPATE DECREASING LOWER CLOUDS IN WAKE OF DEPARTING COLD FRONT
WITH EVENTUALLY JUST SOME CIRRUS SPILLING DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE FOR PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WIND.
GIVEN THE ANTICIPATION OF BROKEN CIRRUS COVERAGE TEMPERED MINS TO WARM SIDE
OF GUIDANCE BLEND WITH A GENERAL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FRIDAY STILL LOOKING LIKE AN INCREASING WARM
AIR ADVECTION DAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW RIPPLING OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS. POSSIBLE CLOUD
COVER AND A SHARPENING INVERSION ALOFT CENTERED ON THE H85 MB LEVEL
MAY LIMIT THE PRE-SYSTEM WARM UP POTENTIAL AND THE LATEST TEMP
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF SOME...WILL ADVERTISE LOW TO MID 30S IN THE
FAR NORTHEAST TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTHWEST. RATHER BRISK
SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS FRI NIGHT AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER TO MAKE FOR A
STEADY TEMP TREND INTO SAT MORNING WITH MINIMAL DROP OFF AFTER
SUNSET. WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY FOR FRI NIGHT...BUT INCREASING
SIGNALS OF SOME LIGHT WAA TYPE PRECIP MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SPRINKLES OR SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN MAY OCCUR FRI EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.
BACKING LLVL FLOW UNDER FLATTENING/INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
ACRS MUCH OF THE CONUS ON SAT TO TRANSLATE INTO AN UNSEASONABLY MILD
DAY. AGAIN CLOUD COVER AND VERTICAL MIXING LIMITING INVERSION
OVERHEAD TO SUPPRESS TRUE WARM UP POTENTIAL...BUT AT LEAST SOME
PARTIAL INSOLATION AND MIXING UP TO H925 MB/INVERSION BASE MAKE FOR
HIGHS WELL UP IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL FCST AREA WITH A 50
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I80. A FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGGING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST OFF ANOTHER WAVE ROLLING ALONG ACTIVE CLIPPER TRACK ALONG
THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE
SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY ACRS THE WESTERN/
NORTHWESTERN CWA. SFC TEMPS CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE MARGINAL FOR ANY
TYPE OF FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE THREAT. SFC WINDS GOING LIGHT
CONVERGENT IN VCNTY OF THE BOUNDARY MAY INDUCE SOME AREAS OF FOG
HOWEVER. ON SUNDAY...THE FRONT SLOWS BUT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA FOR A ONGOING LIGHT PRECIP FOCUS AGAIN MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE IF CLOUD CEILINGS ARE
LOW ENOUGH. AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ALIGNED
PARALLEL TO ORGANIZING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLIES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GRT LKS/EASTERN OH RVR VALLEY
REGIONS... A LEAD WAVE PULSING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC RIBBON MAY
INDUCE AN ISENTROPIC LIFT PRECIP EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT ACRS THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT RAIN INTO EARLY MON MORNING...BUT FURTHER TO THE
NORTH IN DEEPENING LLVL NORTHERLY FLOW/LOWERING WBZS A WINTRY MIX
MAY BE MORE IN LINE.
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...ASSESSING THE LATEST SUITE OF 00Z
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS IN HANDLING THE NOW WELL ADVERTISED LOW
PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RUN-TO-RUN VARIATIONS/LACK OF CONSISTENCY EXPECTEDLY
CONTINUE. SEVERAL OF THE 00Z SOLUTIONS ARE NOT QUITE AS DEEP WITH
THE LLVL CYCLONE...HAVE TRENDED BACK FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST SOME
WITH THE LOW TO MID LEVEL LOW TRACK...AND SPED UP THE LEAD PRECIP
SHIELD ACRS THE REGION BY LATE MON AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY MON
NIGHT. THE GENERAL ENSEMBLE MAIN SFC LOW TRACK CURRENTLY IS FROM
WEST CENTRAL TO SOUTHWESTERN MO LATE TUE MORNING...ACRS THE EAST
CENTRAL CWA TO JUST SOUTHWEST OF CHICAGO BY 00Z WED...AND THEN
ROLLING INTO WEST CENTRAL LOWER MI BY MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT. THIS PATH
AS WELL AS THE MID LEVEL LOW TRACK CURRENTLY INDICATED WOULD PLACE
THE HEAVIEST SNOW TOTALS GENERATED BY THE MAIN SYSTEM...TO THE WEST
AND THE NORTHWEST OF THE DVN CWA. BUT BACK TO MON NIGHT WITH THE
INITIAL PRECIP SURGE AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM...POTENTIAL OF A WINTRY
MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW OR INITIAL STARTING OUT AS
ACCUMULATING SNOW BEFORE THE MIX STARTS LATE MON NIGHT. PORTIONS OF
THE AREA MAY BE MAINLY RAIN ON TUE WITH A STRONG ENOUGH WARM
DRAW...BUT THEN THE IN-WRAPPING LLVL COLD CONVEYOR AS WELL AS ROBUST
DYNAMICAL COOLING COULD HASTEN A SWITCH OVER TO ACCUMULATING SNOW
LATE IN THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY TUE EVENING WITH WESTERN TO
NORTHWESTERN CWA AREAS STILL OPEN TO DECENT ACCUMULATIONS.
WITH ONGOING UNCERTAINTIES AND MODEL RUN ADJUSTMENTS STILL EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS UNTIL THE PACIFIC WAVE ENERGY GETS BETTER
SAMPLED...WILL JUST ADVERTISE A MIX-GOING-INTO-SNOW GENERAL SCENARIO
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR NOW FOR THE PRIME WINDOW OF MON NIGHT THROUGH
WED AM. WHATEVER TRACK THE SYSTEM TAKES...IF THE CURRENT MODELS ARE
CLOSE TO THE DEPTH OF THE LOW THERE MAY BE STRONG WINDS WRAPPING IN
BEHIND IT ALONG WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT COULD COMBINE
WITH LINGERING SNOWFALL UNDER THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW FOR
CONTINUED WINTER WX IMPACTS. CURRENT MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THIS TO BE
WED INTO WED NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AFTER THE SYSTEM FOR MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016
VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS EASTERN IOWA
AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH 00Z/29. ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
MAY AFFECT KDBQ/KMLI THROUGH 23Z/28 SO A VCSH WAS INCLUDED IN THE
18Z TAFS. IF A STRONGER SHOWER HITS KDBQ/KMLI THEN A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE. AFT 00Z/29 LOW CLOUDS WILL
MOVE OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS. THERE MAY OR MAY NOT BE AREAS OF MVFR VSBY PRIOR TO
SUNRISE FRIDAY DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1047 AM MST THU JAN 28 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST THU JAN 28 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW RIDING ACROSS
THE WESTERN US EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST CANADA. NW FLOW IS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ALONG THE
COLORADO/KANSAS STATE LINE WITH WEAK LEE TROUGH JUST WEST OF OUR CWA.
TODAY-SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS
EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TOWARDS A QUASI-ZONAL WESTERLY PATTERN WITH
THE MAIN STORM TRACK NORTH OF OUR CWA AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AROUND 60...POSSIBLY MID 60S OVER PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. BY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL KICK A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS OUR CWA
WHICH COULD HELP INCREASE WINDS AND COMPLICATE HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. SINCE CAA IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH THIS HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN US
HEIGHTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE NORTHERN STORM
TRACK WILL SHIFT BACK TOWARDS OUR CWA. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH OVER OUR REGION AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BEHIND THIS
FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION TO SUPPORT
POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW FROM I-70 NORTH. STRONGEST PRECIP SIGNAL/BEST
MEASURABLE CHANCES APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE NEBRASKA STATE LINE.
PRECIP WOULD BE LIGHT IN NATURE WITH ON A DUSTING OF SNOW POSSIBLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST THU JAN 28 2016
WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED
TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MONDAY. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW SHOULD BE OVER IOWA.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE MONDAY AND
THEN SHIFT EAST INTO EASTERN KANSAS TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE NEXT SYSTEM ACROSS THE SAME GENERAL
TRACK THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. HOWEVER THE GFS HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHICH ARE SUSPECT. THE RIDGE EAST OF
THE LOW IS LOW AMPLITUDE WHICH SHOULD ALLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION
RATHER THAN NORTHEAST MOVEMENT AS IT AFFECTS THE FA. BOTH MODELS
SHOW GOOD MOISTURE WITH NO DRY SLOT CUTTING OFF SNOW PRODUCTION.
SINCE THE SYSTEM IS STILL NOT ONSHORE WILL HOLD OFF MAKING ANY BOLD
PREDICTIONS. THE MAIN SNOW EVENT SHOULD BEGIN OVER MOST OF THE FA
MONDAY AND THEN TAPER OFF TUESDAY EVENING. FOR NOW...WINDS ON TUESDAY
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL GO INTO A COOLING TREND WITH 40 TO 46 SUNDAY
COOLING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MIN
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 20S
WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM MST THU JAN 28 2016
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY WINDS WILL
LIGHTEN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT
FROM THE WEST TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN BACK TO THE WEST BY LATE
MORNING FRIDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JTL