Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/27/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1037 PM PST SUN JAN 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY TONIGHT AND AS FAR SOUTH AS SAN MATEO COUNTY
ON MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND MILD
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WET WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PST SUNDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE IS
CENTERED OFFSHORE ALONG 130W THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE CA/OR
BORDER...DROPPING TO THE SE DOWN THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER
RIDGE. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS WEAK UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL
GENERATE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH BAY OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
RAIN HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA...AT UKIAH AT
8 PM. THE HRRR SPREADS LIGHT RAIN INTO SONOMA COUNTY LATER TONIGHT
AND AS FAR SOUTH AS SAN MATEO COUNTY BY MONDAY MORNING. A FORECAST
UPDATE WAS RECENTLY COMPLETED TO EXPAND SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT AND ALSO TO EXTEND SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES INTO MONDAY MORNING
FOR THE NORTH BAY AND SOUTH ACROSS SAN FRANCISCO AND PORTIONS OF
SAN MATEO COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. RAIN SHOULD END IN MOST AREAS BY MIDDAY MONDAY.
FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF SAN MATEO COUNTY...MONDAY SHOULD
BE A DAY MUCH LIKE TODAY...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS TO OUR SOUTHEAST TOMORROW...THE
UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER CA AND MAINTAIN DRY
AND MILD WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY...A MOIST FLOW WILL EXTEND
ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM NORTH OF HAWAII ENE INTO THE PAC
NW AND NORTHWEST CA. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PLUME OF
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SAG SOUTH INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE MODELS
AGREE THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE PRECIP ACTION ON
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH DRIVES THE
MOIST BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
POSSIBLY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE THURSDAY
NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT SYSTEM ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE
MODERATE...ALTHOUGH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS MAINTAIN AND ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND...WITH WET WEATHER CONTINUING
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PST SUNDAY...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS
EXPECTED. CIGS COULD DROP AS LOW AS 3000 FEET IN THE NORTHERN SFO
BAY AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
VICINITY OF KSFO...MARGINAL MVFR POSSIBLE AFTER 14Z WITH CIGS
LOWERING TO 3000 FEET.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 8:20 PM PST SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT THROUGH
MID WEEK. A MODERATE FRESH NORTHWEST SWELL ARRIVES BY MIDWEEK. A
LARGER NORTHWEST SWELL APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...NONE.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
900 PM PST SUN JAN 24 2016
.UPDATE...
CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT THE IDEA OF A BAND OF
SNOW WORKING SOUTH SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE LASSEN/PLUMAS AREA INTO
THE NORTHERN STRETCHES OF THE TAHOE BASIN LATE THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. KTRK IS ALREADY REPORTING LIGHT SNOW
WHILE FARTHER NORTHWEST SNOW RATES HAVE DECREASED NEAR BOGARD RS.
THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
ABOUT 1-2 AM BEFORE DECREASING AND BRING VERY LITTLE INTO FAR
WESTERN NEVADA. THE IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BEST
ENHANCEMENT FROM ROUGHLY TRUCKEE NORTH INTO PLUMAS COUNTY.
TAKEN ALL TOGETHER THIS HAS PROMPTED US TO RAISE POPS FOR THE
TAHOE BASIN SOUTH ALONG THE SIERRA CREST TONIGHT AND INCREASE
QPF. WE COULD SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES NEAR LAKE LEVEL LATE
TONIGHT. SOUTH ALONG THE SIERRA CREST. THE BEST LIFT ENDS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH BY ABOUT 4-5 AM...SO LITTLE SNOW IS EXPECTED AFTER
THEN.
FOR AREAS JUST EAST OF THE SIERRA IN WESTERN NEVADA THERE IS LESS
CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS...BUT THE
FOOTHILLS WEST OF RENO AND CARSON CITY COULD PICK UP A COUPLE OF
INCHES ABOVE 5000 FEET. ANY SNOW THAT FALLS ON THE VALLEY FLOORS
IS LIKELY TO MELT...BUT COULD BECOME A HAZARD BY THE MORNING
COMMUTE AS TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING AND PATCHES OF ICE FORM.
UPDATES OUT SOON. XX
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM PST SUN JAN 24 2016/
UPDATE...
RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING VERY LIGHT RETURNS WORKING INTO WESTERN
LASSEN COUNTY AND PARTS OF PLUMAS COUNTY NOW. THE WEB CAM AT
BOGARD RS ALSO SHOWS LIGHT SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE PCPN
TONIGHT WILL BE TOO LIGHT TO BE PICKED UP ON RADAR OVER FAR
NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THAT DOES
NOT MEAN IT IS NOT THERE.
THE LATEST ITERATION OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH (HRRR) MODEL
IS STILL BRINGING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SOUTHEAST ACROSS
LASSEN/PLUMAS COUNTIES INTO FAR WESTERN NEVADA BY LATE THIS
EVENING. THE LATEST NAM IS CONCENTRATING A BIT MORE TO THE WEST
WITH THE BEST QPF SHOWING UP FROM WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY INTO THE
TRUCKEE AREA BEFORE ENDING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE HRRR DOES
SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ENDING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
WELL.
IN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THE ENHANCED AREA OF CLOUDS OVER NORTHEAST
CA IS SLOWLY WARMING WHILE A SECONDARY AREA TO THE WEST OF THAT
BAND IS COOLING. THAT IS LIKELY THE INDICATION THE SECONDARY SPEED
MAX IS WORKING INTO THE REGION AND THE AREA WEST OF LASSEN COUNTY
WILL BECOME THE PRIME AREA FOR REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
WITH ALL THIS IN MIND WE HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT
AND ADDED A LITTLE MORE QPF. IT IS STILL VERY UNCLEAR WHETHER ANY
PCPN WILL MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR
THROUGH THE SIERRA AND FAR WESTERN NEVADA...BUT AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES AND TEMPS FALL...ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS...EVEN TO THE LOWEST VALLEY FLOORS.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ALSO VERY DIFFICULT TO DISCERN AT THIS TIME.
ANYONE TRAVELING TONIGHT NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM PORTOLA TO
TRUCKEE TO HAWTHORNE SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR INTERMITTENT SLICK OR
ICY SPOTS ON AREA ROADS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 11 PM. XX
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM PST SUN JAN 24 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
A SLIDER TYPE SYSTEM IS LIKELY THIS EVENING. WHILE EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY BENIGN, THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK BEFORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SNOW RETURN THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM...
A WEAK SLIDER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE ON
THE POSSIBLE IMPACTS REMAINS LOW...AS IS TYPICAL WITH SYSTEMS OF
THIS NATURE. THE RESPONSIBLE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK
CAN BE CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE JUST OFF THE OREGON
COAST WITH SHOWERS POPPING UP ON RADAR IN EXTREME NORTHERN
CA/SOUTHERN OREGON. THE VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE
CA COAST, AND THIS WESTERLY TRACK IS ALLOWING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
TO BE ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO UNSTABLE AND
HAS A DECENT JET STREAK TO WORK WITH, BUT THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
LACKS VERTICAL DEPTH.
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WITH 80 PERCENT CONFIDENCE IS LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON, MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE THIS
EVENING. IMPACTS WOULD BE PREDOMINATELY NORTH OF A PORTOLA-FALLON
LINE IF THIS OCCURS. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS FAR SOUTH AS
AROUND HIGHWAY 50, IN WESTERN NEVADA. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND
5000-5500 FEET LATER THIS AFTERNOON, DROPPING TO VALLEY FLOORS
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES IT WILL BE TOO
WARM FOR ANY ACCUMULATION BELOW 6000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. THE
GREATER CONCERN WOULD BE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT FOR ROADWAYS IN THE
CENTRAL BASIN AND RANGE, INCLUDING I-80 EAST OF FERNLEY AND
HIGHWAY 95 NORTH OF SCHURZ.
AS FAR AS SNOW AMOUNT POTENTIAL... IT IS MOST LIKELY THIS WEAK
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE AN INCH OR LESS, BUT THERE IS A 25% CHANCE FOR 1
TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ABOVE 5000 FEET TONIGHT IF THE SYSTEM
STALLS OUT AT ALL. THE BIGGEST TAKE-A-WAY IS JUST TO PAY ATTENTION
TO ANY UPDATES THIS EVENING AND BE PREPARED FOR THE CHANCE OF
SLIPPERY ROADS TONIGHT, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEST MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS, LIGHT WINDS, AND
PERIODS OF CLOUDS. EXPECT INVERSIONS TO DEVELOP AS TEMPERATURES
WARM QUICKER ALOFT WITH POOR MIXING AND SOME DETERIORATION TO AIR
QUALITY POSSIBLE. DJ
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT POTENTIAL WINTER STORM THAT IS POISED TO IMPACT THE REGION
NEXT WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS MED-HIGH THAT THIS WINTER SYSTEM WILL
MATERIALIZE BUT DETAILS FOR THIS SYSTEM ARE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT TIMING AND EVOLUTION DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODEL
GUIDANCE THIS MORNING.
THE SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND FEATURES A RESPECTABLE 1.25-1.5"
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP THAT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY. THE OVERALL CHARACTER OF THIS SYSTEM
IS UNCERTAIN AS THE EC RETAINS A MORE CONSOLIDATED SYSTEM WITH
STEADY PRECIPITATION INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN OREGON BORDER THROUGH SATURDAY. IT
THEN SWEEPS MOISTURE ACROSS THE SIERRA UNTIL LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
THE TREND IN THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS HAS BEEN TO AMPLIFY
RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AHEAD OF THE STORM WHICH MAY ACT
TOWARDS A SPLITTING EVOLUTION FOR THE LOW AS IT MOVES ONSHORE. THIS
IS EVIDENT AS THE 12Z GFS HAS SHOWN A HUGE DROP OFF IN PEAK 48 HOUR
QPF ALONG THE NORTHERN SIERRA OF NEARLY 5" (LIQUID) FROM YESTERDAY.
AS A RESULT WILL NOT EVEN SPECULATE ON SNOW AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME,
BUT CURRENTLY LIQUID ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE CREST ARE AT LEAST
SHOWING A BIT MORE REASONABLE AMOUNTS IN THE 1-2" RANGE ALONG THE
SIERRA CREST. REGARDLESS, DO EXPECT TRAVEL IMPACTS THROUGH THE
SIERRA NEXT WEEK AND THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD MONITOR THE
FORECAST AS DETAILS COME INTO BETTER FOCUS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. FUENTES
AVIATION...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH SOUTH ALONG THE SIERRA
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING. THIS MAY PROVIDE SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL TO KTRK/KTVL/KRNO/KCXP. MOSTLY LIKELY WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF RUNWAY ACCUMULATIONS WITH PERHAPS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ABOUT 1 INCH OF SNOW BEING FOR KTRK. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
BANDED SNOWFALL TO FORM BUT THAT LOOKS MORE LIKELY EAST OF KLOL-
KNFL.
FOR A WORST CASE, PERHAPS 10% CHC OF OCCURRENCE: A BAND OF SNOW
SHOWERS FORMS AND MOVES THROUGH KRNO/KCXP AFT 04Z WHICH COULD
DEPOSIT AN INCH OF SNOW AND BRING IFR CIGS/VIS FOR 2-3 HRS.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS SYSTEM, WORST CASE WOULD HAVE HIGH
IMPACTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN VFR CONDS AFT 12Z MON FOR ALL
TERMINALS. FUENTES/WALLMANN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1105 AM MST MON JAN 25 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MST MON JAN 25 2016
BASED OFF HI RES GUIDANCE...BUMPED UP POPS A BIT ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR/S MTN REGION...MAINLY FROM PUEBLO S TO THE NM BORDER.
/HODANISH
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MST MON JAN 25 2016
...COOL AND UNSETTLED NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS IS INDICATING
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION AS YESTERDAYS
PASSING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ALSO INDICATING SECONDARY
ENERGY DIGGING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AT THIS TIME. REGION RADARS INDICATING SOME ECHOES ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO WITH ECHOES ACROSS THE SE
PLAINS LATE LAST NIGHT DIMINISHING AS THEY PUSHED EAST INTO WESTERN
KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT INDICATING SOME
PATCHY STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH ALS INDICATING
PATCHY DENSE FOG...THOUGH CDOT CAMERAS ACROSS THE VALLEY INDICATING
MUCH IMPROVED VISIBILITY AT THIS TIME.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW PROGGED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SECONDARY EMBEDDED
WAVE DIGGING ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES OVERNIGHT. EMBEDDED MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SECONDARY WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF GENERALLY
LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER AND NEAR THE
EASTERN MTS WITH SFC-H7 WINDS BECOMING MORE EAST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AIR MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. POPS DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SNOWFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MST MON JAN 25 2016
ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END BY SUNRISE TUESDAY...AND WITH MOST UPPER
ENERGY WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE DURING THE DAY...WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST ALL AREAS. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP COLDER AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WED...WITH WARMER AIR SPILLING EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS BY WED
AFTERNOON. GRADUALLY INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW THU/FRI WILL THEN
KEEP TEMPS VERY MILD...WITH READINGS DEEP INTO THE 60S BY FRI
ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. INCREASING MOISTURE AND UPPER
ENERGY BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
JET SAGS SOUTH...WITH AT LEAST LIGHT SNOW RETURNING TO MOST
MOUNTAIN AREAS FROM LATE SAT INTO SUN. ECMWF AGAIN FARTHER SOUTH
WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS SAT NIGHT...LEADING TO MORE
PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
GFS REMAINS FARTHER NORTH...KEEPING EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
MOSTLY DRY THROUGH SUN AS BEST FORCING REMAINS WEST AND NORTH OF
THE REGION. FORECAST LEANS TOWARD DRIER GFS AT THIS POINT...AND
WILL WAIT UNTIL FORECASTS CONVERGE BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW A SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS...AND WHILE
TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW ON MANY 00Z MODELS MAY BE SLIGHTLY TOO
FAR NORTH FOR A LARGE SNOWFALL OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO...IT WON`T
TAKE MUCH OF A SOUTHWARD WOBBLE TO BRING HEAVIER SNOWS BACK TO
THE REGION MON/TUE. STILL A LONG WAYS TO GO BEFORE SOLUTION COMES
INTO TO FOCUS...SO WON`T HIT THINGS TOO HARD YET IN NEW DAY 8
GRIDS...BUT SYSTEM CERTAINLY HAS POTENTIAL TO BRING HIGH IMPACT
WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL U.S. AS IT MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1032 AM MST MON JAN 25 2016
KALS...
VFR NEXT 24H
KCOS...
CONCERN IS HOW LOW WILL THE CIG GET? SHORT WAVE MOVING IN NOW AND
SKIES BEGINNING TO CLOUD UP. SOME MVFR NOTED AT NEARBY MTR SITES.
HOWEVER...FLOW WILL BE DOWNSLOPE (NORTH WINDS) AND HRRR KEEPS ANY
SNOW SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOP LATER TODAY PINNED ALONG MTNS TO THE
WEST. FOR NOW KEPT MVFR CIGS OUT OF TAF BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR CIGS WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. I ALSO
CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PD OF SNOW...ALTHOUGH I DO NOT EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. VFR SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AT KCOS AND
LAST INTO TOMORROW.
KPUB...
HRRR HAS SHOWN PRECIP DEVELOPING OVER KPUB LATER TODAY. I BELIEVE
IT MAY BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE ON AMOUNTS BUT I DO EXPECT WE WILL
SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. KPUB SHOULD BECOME VFR LATE THIS EVENING INTO
TOMORROW.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ058-060.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1038 AM MST MON JAN 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MST MON JAN 25 2016
...COOL AND UNSETTLED NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS IS INDICATING
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION AS YESTERDAYS
PASSING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ALSO INDICATING SECONDARY
ENERGY DIGGING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AT THIS TIME. REGION RADARS INDICATING SOME ECHOES ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO WITH ECHOES ACROSS THE SE
PLAINS LATE LAST NIGHT DIMINISHING AS THEY PUSHED EAST INTO WESTERN
KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT INDICATING SOME
PATCHY STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH ALS INDICATING
PATCHY DENSE FOG...THOUGH CDOT CAMERAS ACROSS THE VALLEY INDICATING
MUCH IMPROVED VISIBILITY AT THIS TIME.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW PROGGED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SECONDARY EMBEDDED
WAVE DIGGING ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES OVERNIGHT. EMBEDDED MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SECONDARY WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF GENERALLY
LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER AND NEAR THE
EASTERN MTS WITH SFC-H7 WINDS BECOMING MORE EAST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AIR MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. POPS DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SNOWFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MST MON JAN 25 2016
ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END BY SUNRISE TUESDAY...AND WITH MOST UPPER
ENERGY WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE DURING THE DAY...WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST ALL AREAS. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP COLDER AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WED...WITH WARMER AIR SPILLING EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS BY WED
AFTERNOON. GRADUALLY INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW THU/FRI WILL THEN
KEEP TEMPS VERY MILD...WITH READINGS DEEP INTO THE 60S BY FRI
ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. INCREASING MOISTURE AND UPPER
ENERGY BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
JET SAGS SOUTH...WITH AT LEAST LIGHT SNOW RETURNING TO MOST
MOUNTAIN AREAS FROM LATE SAT INTO SUN. ECMWF AGAIN FARTHER SOUTH
WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS SAT NIGHT...LEADING TO MORE
PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
GFS REMAINS FARTHER NORTH...KEEPING EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
MOSTLY DRY THROUGH SUN AS BEST FORCING REMAINS WEST AND NORTH OF
THE REGION. FORECAST LEANS TOWARD DRIER GFS AT THIS POINT...AND
WILL WAIT UNTIL FORECASTS CONVERGE BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW A SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS...AND WHILE
TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW ON MANY 00Z MODELS MAY BE SLIGHTLY TOO
FAR NORTH FOR A LARGE SNOWFALL OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO...IT WON`T
TAKE MUCH OF A SOUTHWARD WOBBLE TO BRING HEAVIER SNOWS BACK TO
THE REGION MON/TUE. STILL A LONG WAYS TO GO BEFORE SOLUTION COMES
INTO TO FOCUS...SO WON`T HIT THINGS TOO HARD YET IN NEW DAY 8
GRIDS...BUT SYSTEM CERTAINLY HAS POTENTIAL TO BRING HIGH IMPACT
WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL U.S. AS IT MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1032 AM MST MON JAN 25 2016
KALS...
VFR NEXT 24H
KCOS...
CONCERN IS HOW LOW WILL THE CIG GET? SHORT WAVE MOVING IN NOW AND
SKIES BEGINNING TO CLOUD UP. SOME MVFR NOTED AT NEARBY MTR SITES.
HOWEVER...FLOW WILL BE DOWNSLOPE (NORTH WINDS) AND HRRR KEEPS ANY
SNOW SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOP LATER TODAY PINNED ALONG MTNS TO THE
WEST. FOR NOW KEPT MVFR CIGS OUT OF TAF BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR CIGS WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. I ALSO
CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PD OF SNOW...ALTHOUGH I DO NOT EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. VFR SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AT KCOS AND
LAST INTO TOMORROW.
KPUB...
HRRR HAS SHOWN PRECIP DEVELOPING OVER KPUB LATER TODAY. I BELIEVE
IT MAY BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE ON AMOUNTS BUT I DO EXPECT WE WILL
SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. KPUB SHOULD BECOME VFR LATE THIS EVENING INTO
TOMORROW.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ058-060.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
916 PM MST SUN JAN 24 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 PM MST SUN JAN 24 2016
RADAR DATA IS SHOWING A FEW BANDS OF SNOW MOVING OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS...BUT WINDS ARE MORE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THAN
NORTHEAST...ALLOWING SOME DRYING OF THE LOW LEVELS OF THE AIRMASS
DUE TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW RATHER THAN UPSLOPE WINDS. A FEW MORE BANDS
OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL LIKELY CONTAIN A FEW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IMPULSES
OVERNIGHT. IN THE MOUNTAINS...WEB CAMS AND SNOW STAKES HAVE SHOWN
THAT 2 TO 5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE RUC MODEL CONTINUE SHOWING SNOW
FALLING IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...SO WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY IN
EFFECT. ELSEWHERE...THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
THE PLAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO NO NEED TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MST SUN JAN 24 2016
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST
ENTERED WESTERN COLORADO. SNOW MOVED OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF IT AND IS NOW SPREADING OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS.
THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM GRAND JUNCTION SHOWS STEEP LAPSE RATES 550MB
TO 400MB. THE MODELS SHOW THESE STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO 9 C/KM
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. SO EXPECT SOME
AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW FROM
THESE SNOW SHOWERS. MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WINDS WILL BE 20 TO 30
KNOTS AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE 6 TO 8 C/KM. THIS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR OROGRAPHIC LIFT. TOTAL SNOWFALL THROUGH MONDAY FOR
THE MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10 INCHES. A FEW LOCATIONS
COULD SEE UP TO A FOOT IF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS LINGER OVER AN AREA.
FOR THE FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY THOUGH 06Z. ANY RAIN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO COOL. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FAVOR AREAS
SOUTH OF DENVER...WHERE UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AS
ANOTHER WEAK RIPPLE DROPS SOUTHEAST. ANY NEW SNOWFALL WILL BE
LIGHT AND LESS THAN AN INCH ON MONDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 30S THROUGH OUT NORTHEAST COLORADO.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MST SUN JAN 24 2016
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL DEPART THE FCST AREA MONDAY NIGHT
WITH DRIER...SUBSIDENT AIR SPREADING DOWN FROM WYOMING BEHIND THE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALLUDED TO ABOVE. AREAS IN AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS AND THE PALMER DIVIDE SHOULD SEE AN END TO MOST OF THIS
LIGHT SNOWFALL BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. HIGH COUNTRY SNOWFALL PROBABLY
NOT UNTIL MORNING. MODELS DO NOT INDICATE ANY APPRECIABLE
ACCUMULATION. ON TUESDAY...A SECOND WEAKER SHORTWAVE WITH ITS BATCH
OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOLING IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY SWING
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. DO NOT SEE MUCH
IF ANY PRECIP/SNOWFALL BEING GENERATED BY THIS FEATURE ESPLY EAST OF
THE MTNS WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DRY. IN ADDITION...
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING MINIMAL TEMP CHANGE FROM THE DAY BEFORE.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OUT WEST
ON TUESDAY MAKES SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS OVER THE ERN GREAT BASIN ON
WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW A WEAK PERTABATION ROUNDING THE TOP OF THIS
RIDGE AND DOWN OVER ERN COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SUBTLE
FEATURE MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR DRY AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WARMING FRIDAY ENHANCED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE GREAT BASIN UPPER RIDGE COLLAPSES ALLOWING A
POWERFUL PACIFIC JET TO STREAM INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MARITIME
MOISTURE ACROSS SRN IDAHO...NRN UTAH...WYOMING AND NRN COLORADO.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER IN DETAILS BUT OVERALL THEY INDICATE AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR HIGH COUNTRY PRECIP/SNOWFALL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. PRECIP CHANCES EAST OF THE MTNS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME.
LASTLY TEMPERATURES BEGIN A DOWNWARD TREND BEGINNING SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 916 PM MST SUN JAN 24 2016
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY EXCEPT FOR WHEN BANDS OF
SNOW MOVE ACROSS THE AIRPORT WHEN THEY COULD DROP TO LOW MARGINAL
VFR. VISIBILITIES COULD ALSO DROP DOWN TO 2 TO 4 MILES AT TIMES.
THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END BY 09Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST MONDAY FOR COZ031-033-034.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...DANKERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1005 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TRI-STATE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND AND STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COMBINATION OF POSITIVE DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND
THE REGION BEING IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 155+ KT 250 HPA
JET WILL SEE ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE
SE 1/2 OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. AT MOST TRACE AMOUNTS BEING REPORTED
ACROSS NJ WITH CURRENT RADAR RETURNS...SO HAVE DELAYED ONSET OF
MEASURABLE POPS...MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL MAINLY AFTER 6Z.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH 00Z NAM/AND 01Z HRRR AND RAP. AS LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT...COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIXED
IN LATE AS THE SHOWERS TAPER OFF.
APPEARS FREEZING TEMPERATURES DO NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL AFTER
6Z. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON SPS
FOR BLACK ICE FOR THE INTERIOR FOR NOW...BUT WILL UPDATE HWO TO
REFLECT POSSIBILITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONGER COLD ADVECTION SETS UP EARLY AND CONTINUES INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WIND DEVELOPING.
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ABOUT 5 DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE OF
TUESDAY...STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AND WITH THE AXIS
PASSING EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ZONAL FLOW IS SETTING UP LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. COLDER AIR...CLEAR
CONDITIONS...AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY USHERING IN GUSTY
WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS. MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY IMPACT FROM THIS
COASTAL LOW.
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...AND STALL NORTH OF THE REGION TO START THE NEW WEEK. A
FEW WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY ALONG THIS FRONT EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PROVIDING SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE THIS EVENING...AND PASS THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED.
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES WITH
COLD FROPA...IMPACTING MAINLY KISP/KGON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS. SW FLOW 10 KT OR LESS WILL SHIFT WNW
OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT BY
LATE MORNING WED.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THU THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED NIGHT-THU...VFR.
.FRI...SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.
STRENGTHENING NW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH
G15-25KT LIKELY.
.SAT-SUNDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE NON-COASTAL OCEAN ZONES SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER WILL SEE GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20 KT THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.
GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR SMALL CRAFT
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL WITH WIND GUSTS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THEN AS
COLDER AIR FILTERS OVER THE WATERS AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AGAIN WINDS AND GUSTS ALSO INCREASE WITH GUSTS
BACK OVER SMALL CRAFT. IN ADDITION...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
REMAIN 5 FT OR HIGHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SLOWLY SUBSIDING IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT SEAS MAY LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER...NOT CONFIDENT AT THIS TIME...SO
THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS ON
THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WATERS MAY
BRING SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS LATE ON FRIDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY. SEAS FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL LIQUID PRECIPITATION TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH.
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...FIG/MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
209 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION MID WEEK
WHICH MAY STALL ALONG THE COAST AND KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. MOISTURE
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE EVENING.
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT MAY HELP LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
THE COAST WITH A DECOUPLED AIRMASS. THE HRRR SHOWS REDUCED
VISIBILITIES STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN CSRA INTO THE PEE DEE
REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY AHEAD OF FRONT IN THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A MODEST INCREASE
IN MOISTURE...MAINLY HIGH LEVEL. FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
WEST OF THE REGION. WARM ADVECTION SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. FRONT PARALLEL TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW SO EXPECTED TO BE SLOW
MOVING INTO REGION WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE PIEDMONT WHERE CONVERGENCE
STRONGEST. FRONT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. DEEP MOISTURE
SPREADING NORTHEAST FROM GULF OF MEXICO AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
MODERATELY STRONG AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS FOR LARGE
SCALE LIFT. IN-SITU WEDGE LIKELY DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOIST ADIABATIC. SO WILL CONTINUE
NEAR LIKELY POPS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND
FRONT AS NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH FRONT THAN PREVIOUS ECMWF.
LATEST SUPERBLEND POPS SUGGEST RAIN CHANCE THRU THURSDAY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE GEORGIA/CAROLINA COAST. WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY AND COOL TEMPERATURES. WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR WILL BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE WILL BRING HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. CLOUD COVER MAY DECREASE
TONIGHT BUT RETURN TUESDAY MORNING.
S/SW SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AS AN INVERSION DEVELOPS. THE HRRR SHOWS
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORTING PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT TO
THE EAST...NEAR OGB. GFS/NAM GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE FOG AT OGB
LOWERING CONFIDENCE. LEFT OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE
REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
334 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST MON JAN 25 2016
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THEN ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1034 AM EST MON JAN 25 2016
THIS MORNING/S UPPER AIR INDICATES A LARGE WEDGE OF DRY AIR IN THE
850-500MB LAYER...WHICH MAY SERVE TO WORK AGAINST PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE INCREASING LIFT. AS A RESULT...WILL BACK
OFF ON THE TIMING OF THE POPS UNTIL AFTER ABOUT 252000Z AND ALSO CUT BACK
ON THE ACTUAL CHANCES AS WELL.
LOW CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANA WILL OVERSPREAD THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
MODELS SEEM FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH MOVING AN UPPER WAVE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND ALONG WITH THIS
FEATURE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
TONIGHT. MODELS ARE ALSO CONSISTENTLY GOING DRIER WHICH HAS BEEN
NOTED FOR AT LEAST THE PAST 48 HOURS. CONDITIONS LOOK ESPECIALLY
DRIER FOR LATER TONIGHT WHERE THERE WAS...AND STILL IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH LIGHT RAIN BEFORE THE SYSTEM
QUICKLY EXITS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
STILL FORECASTING A PERIOD OF LIKELY RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS SOMEWHAT STRONGER WARMER AND MOIST
LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW AIDES THE WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER...AS WE REACH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MODELS SOUNDINGS BEGIN
DRYING OUT THE COLUMN SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE FRONT APPEARS TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EVEN FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY DEPICTED.
CHANCES FOR A WINTRY MIX LOOK EVEN LESS LIKELY AT THIS TIME. HAVE
THEREFORE CUT BACK ON MENTION OF SNOW TO ONLY A SMALL WINDOW VERY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING 08Z-12Z AND CONFINED THIS MENTION TO ONLY
THE NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW...AT BEST. CONFIDENCE IN SNOW THIS TIME ROUND IS VERY
LOW...TO ALMOST NEGLIGIBLE.
NUDGED UP TEMPERATURES TODAY SLIGHTLY PER THE EARLIER MENTIONED
MODERATE WARM LOW LEVEL FLOW FOR HIGHS AMOUNTING TO 40-45.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST MON JAN 25 2016
24-48 HOURS AGO MODEL RUNS WERE HINTING STRONGLY THAT LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES WERE POSSIBLE ALL DAY ON TUESDAY. THEN
EACH RUN FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS SEEMS LESS AND LESS ROBUST. THIS
DRYING TREND HAS LED TO A SIGNIFICANT CUTBACK OF POPS EACH
FORECAST ISSUANCE..AND EVENTUALLY LED TO THE REMOVAL OF FLURRIES
ACROSS THE NORTH. GUIDANCE IS STILL NOT GIVING ANY REASON FOR
THIS TO BE PUT BACK IN THE FORECAST...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO
GO DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL DIP SLIGHTLY COLDER FOR A BRIEF SPELL THANKS TO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THE NIGHT BEFORE SO ONLY LOOKING AT HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. THE REST OF THIS PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST DRY WEATHER INITIALLY DURING
THIS PERIOD EVEN THOUGH A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS ON
THURSDAY EVENING. MOISTURE REMAINS SUSPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...PREVENTING
GULF AIR FROM REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE QUICK ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT PREVENTS MUCH IN THE WAY OF ARCTIC INTRUSIONS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA.
GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING
INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HAVE STUCK WITH SUPERBLEND
POPS FOR RAIN FOR NOW. AGAIN WITH A LACK OF COLD AIR...SNOW
APPEARS UNLIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 252100Z IND TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORING AS VERY LOW VFR CIGS ARE NOW IN
PLACE. MVFR CIGS FOUND UPSTREAM ACROSS SW INDIANA AND SRN
ILLINOIS. RADAR SHOWS SOME PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA STREAMING NORTHWARD. ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS IN PRETTY
GOOD SHAPE AS HRRR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST PRECIP DEVELPOMENT OVER
THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW
/DISCUSSION FOR THE 251800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM EST MON JAN 25 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR DURING THIS
TAF PERIOD. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
IS RESULTING IN GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.
TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING INVADING LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON...LINGERING THROUGH THE PERIOD...PRODUCING
THE MVFR CIGS.
RAPID REFRESH SUGGESTS SCT SHRA TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...HOWEVER TRENDS CONTINUE TOWARD TO
THE DRIER SIDE OF THINGS AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS UNAVAILABLE.
AS COLD FRONT PASSES OVERNIGHT IFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN P6SM AS STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDES GOOD MIXING WITH WINDS
NEAR OR ABOVE 10 KNTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/JAS
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1143 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
LOW CLOUDS HAVE ERODED FROM THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE FLOW HAS BACKED FROM SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
AND ITS AFFECT ON LOWS...THEN ON INCREASING PCPN THREAT TOWARD
DAYBREAK. HRRR AND RAP INDICATE THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
ORIENT SW TO NE ALONG NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT FROM
NEAR WATERLOO TO AMES TO ATLANTIC AND HAVE LEFT THE SOUTH PARTLY
CLOUDY INTO THE EARLY MORNING. THIS MAY CAUSE LOWS IN THE SOUTH TO
FALL MORE THAN PROJECTED AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
FARTHER NORTH...THE LOW STRATUS WILL KEEP THE DIURNAL RANGE QUITE
TIGHT WITH ONLY A MINOR DIP OVERNIGHT.
LIFT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS SYSTEM CROSSES THE
PLAIN. THIS WILL START TO SQUEEZE OUT LIGHT PCPN FROM THE STATUS
TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING.
THEREFORE...HAVE EXPANDED THE -FZDZ THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME DRIZZLE IN THE FAR SOUTH
WHERE TEMPS WILL BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...THE BEST PCPN
THREAT WILL COME ON MONDAY AS MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH AS
LIFT INTENSIFIES.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION EVENT SLATED FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
HAS CHANGED IN OVERALL FORECAST THINKING AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
UNANIMOUSLY SHOW THE COLUMN SATURATING FROM THE BOTTOM UP ON
MONDAY MORNING...CLEARLY WARMER THAN THE ICE GROWTH ZONE AND
AT LEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN TWO THIRDS OR SO OF OUR AREA
CLEARLY BELOW FREEZING AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS A STRONG SET UP
FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF WHAT HAPPENED THIS
MORNING WITH SHALLOWER MOISTURE AND LESS LIFT. THE TWO REAL
QUESTIONS ARE WHERE THE FREEZING LINE...EITHER IN TERMS OF AIR
TEMPERATURE OR SURFACE TEMPERATURE...WILL BE LOCATED WHEN
PRECIPITATION BEGINS AND ALSO TO WHAT EXTENT ROADS WILL BE ABLE
TO ICE UP GIVEN LATENT HEAT RELEASE AND CHEMICAL TREATMENTS.
CONFIDENCE IN THESE DETAILS IS LOW BUT DESPITE THE
UNCERTAINTIES...AND GIVEN THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF ICY ROADS ON
THE MORNING COMMUTE...HAVE DEEMED IT PRUDENT TO ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 12Z MONDAY.
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW...EXCEPT IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE WARMING WILL LEAD TO
JUST LIGHT RAIN...THEN ON MONDAY NIGHT THE SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY
DEPART TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. WHILE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS...IT MAY PRODUCE OR
EXACERBATE SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS AND ALSO AS WINDS STRENGTHEN
LATE MONDAY WILL RESULT IN SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHILE SNOW IS FALLING. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES OF TIMING PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGES AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF POOR ROAD CONDITIONS AND BLOWING SNOW IN THE
EVENING...HAVE CARRIED THE ENTIRE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE FORECAST IS QUIET WITH A RATHER
PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND. GIVEN THE PREDICTED RIDGING
ALOFT...GENERALLY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND EXPECTED LACK
OF SNOW COVER ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA...HAVE INCREASED
FORECAST HIGHS FROM THURSDAY ONWARD WITH TEMPERATURES NOW WELL
INTO THE 40S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS. AROUND SATURDAY
IT APPEARS THAT A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AND MAY GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW AT THIS RANGE AND HAVE STUCK WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...25/06Z
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
TAFS CONTINUE TO BE MURKY. CLEARING RECENTLY REACHED KALO AND
CONTINUES SLOW NW MOVEMENT. HAVE PUSHED BACK ARRIVAL OF FZDZ. ICE
AMOUNTS TRENDING TO BE LIGHTER AND ARRIVING LATER. DROPPED TO IFR
FOR THIS ARRIVAL. MAY ONLY REACH MVFR OR MAY TEMPORARILY DROP TO
LIFR DEPENDING ON HOW INTENSITY PLAYS OUT. TRANSITION TO SNOW
AROUND SUNSET. STRONG NW WINDS OF 15 KTS TO 20 KTS COME IN AS THIS
TRANSITION OCCURS. BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR KMCW AND KALO.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY
NIGHT FOR AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-
CASS-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-POCAHONTAS-SAC-
STORY-TAMA-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR EMMET-HUMBOLDT-
KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...KOTENBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
623 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 620 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
For aviation section.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 200 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
Low confidence forecast with respect to clouds early on. RAP 13km
seems to have best handle on 925mb rh, and decrease due to mixing
over SEMO into far west KY. High cloud influence will eventually
be limited to west KY. Otherwise short term updates to the cloud
forecast likely given the overall poor modeling of moisture at
925mb. Higher confidence of clouds maintaining is east into the
KEVV tri-state area. Otherwise high pressure the rule with dry
weather forecast. Energy and a boundary move through early Thursday
with mainly mid and upper clouds. Chilly Wednesday though return
sun. Thursday milder.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 200 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
Through Saturday and into Sunday, the main focus for the WFO PAH
forecast area will be the southerly flow and the increase in
temperatures from normal (some 15 to 20 degrees) for this time of
year. The general pattern shifts from a zonal flow to an
increasingly southwesterly flow aloft from Saturday onward.
The deterministic 00-12z Tuesday GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian guidance
still hint at warm advection, isentropically lifted, warm conveyor
belt shower activity breaking out late Sunday morning, increasing in
coverage through Monday.
Unlike the more consistent ECMWF the past few days, the GFS has
transitioned into a much more progressive northern stream flow
associated with a stronger and deeper low in the upper Midwest,
developing and shearing out a cold front across the area, as apposed
to maintaining a warm front across the northern sections of the WFO
PAH forecast area.
However, the ECMWF and the GFS Ensemble (albeit a little further
north than the ECMWF), maintain a warm frontal zone near the region,
maintaining the WFO PAH forecast area in a warm sector and greater
instability with time.
The nearly vertically stacked closed low in Western Missouri next
Tuesday continues to support some upright convection (thunderstorm
activity), so kept the mention of thunderstorms in place during the
day on Tuesday.
The main features for the latter half of Sunday through Monday night
will be scattered showers and then a shift to colder temperatures
again after February 3rd with the passage of a strong cold front.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 620 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
Clouds will be the main forecast challenge. A wedge of clearing
extends from around KPOF to right along the Ohio River.
Trajectories suggest clouds will hang tough east of the MS
River, and especially KEVV and KOWB, so will keep MVFR cigs
between 2-3K/FT there through the forecast. Confidence is lower at
KPAH and KCGI where th s/w edge of the clouds will be. Will keep
a cig going both places for now and AMD if need be.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GM
AVIATION...GM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
651 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR TROF
EXTENDING FM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF UPR RDG
OVER THE ROCKIES. SHRTWV/SFC LO PRES RESPONSIBLE FOR WDSPRD SN THAT
IMPACTED THE CWA LAST NGT INTO THIS MRNG IS EXITING TO THE NE THRU
SE CANADA...BUT ANOTHER SHRTWV DIGGING SE THRU THE UPR
MIDWEST/ACCOMPANYING DPVA AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/DEEP MSTR SHOWN
ON THE 12Z GRB RAOB AS WELL AS LINGERING CYC NNW FLOW OF COLDER AIR
DROPPING H85 TEMPS TOWARD -14C IS MAINTAINING SOME SN MAINLY NEAR LK
SUP. 12Z INL RAOB SHOWS MID LVL DRYING LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SHRTWV...AND BACK EDGE OF COLDER CLD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS DRYING IS PUSHING SEWD THRU THE CWA THIS AFTN.
SN INTENSITIES DIMINISHED QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THIS
DRYING. LOOKING UPSTREAM... THERE IS A SHRTWV OVER WRN CANADA RIDING
OVER THE ROCKIES RDG.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU WED WL BE ON POPS INTO THIS EVNG AND THEN ON
WINDS/POTENTIAL FOR SOME SN ON WED AFTN IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF SHRTWV NOW TOPPING THE ROCKIES RDG.
TNGT...EXPECT SN SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR LK SUP THIS EVNG IN LINGERING
CYC FLOW TO DIMINISH TNGT WITH ARRIVAL OF DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR
DVGC/MORE ACYC LLVL FLOW/WARMING H85 TEMPS ACCOMPANYING SFC RDG AXIS
THAT IS FCST TO FOLLOW INTO THE WRN LKS FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING
SHRTWV. ALTHOUGH THE LES WL PERSIST THRU THE EVNG UNTIL THE PASSAGE
OF THE H85 THERMAL TROF ARND 06Z...SHIFTING WINDS THAT LIMIT BAND
RESIDENCE TIME THRU THE EVNG WL ALSO LIMIT ADDITIONAL SN ACCUMS.
EVEN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SFC RDG AXIS TOWARD 12Z TO THE N OF HI
PRES CENTER BLDG INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...CLRG OF THE LO CLDS
MAY BE LIMITED OR AT LEAST SLOWED AS QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD LINGERS
UPSTREAM IN THE NRN PLAINS UNDER THE RDG AXIS THERE. LINGERING LO
CLDS AND STEADY BACKING WINDS WELL N OF THE SFC HI CENTER SHOULD
LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL...ESPECIALLY IF THE LO CLDS ARE QUITE
PERSISTENT. TENDED TO BUMP UP FCST MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.
WED...SHRTWV NOW RIDING THE ROCKIES RDG IS FCST TO DIG SE INTO NE MN
BY LATE IN THE DAY...WITH ACCOMPANYING DEEP SFC LO MOVING NEAR
THUNDER BAY BY LATE IN THE DAY. AS THE PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE SFC LO
PRES AND DEPARTING SFC HI PRES RDG TIGHTENS...SW H925 WINDS ARE FCST
TO INCRS UP TO 35-40KTS. ALTHOUGH HI STABILITY RELATED TO THE WAA
THAT IS FCST TO BOOST H85 TEMPS UP TO -5C BY 18Z WL LIMIT THE MIXING
OF THIS HIER MOMENTUM TO THE SFC...STILL EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO AT
LEAST REACH 30-35 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK
SUP. ALL THE NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW AREA OF SN IN COMMA TAIL OF THE
SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE CWA W-E IN THE AFTN. SINCE THE COMMA
TAIL/AXIS OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WL BE MOVING STEADILY...MSTR
INFLOW INTO THIS DISTURBANCE WL BE LIMITED PER NAM FCST H85
DEWPTS/H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY...AND SN/WATER RATIOS ARE FCST TO BE
POOR WITH A RATHER HI/THEN DGZ CENTERED ARND 13K FT AGL...EXPECT SN
ACCUMS TO BE AN INCH OR TWO AT THE MOST. CARRIED THE HIER POPS/SN
TOTALS OVER THE NRN CWA CLOSER TO THE SHRTWV TRACK.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
GENERALLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH INTERMITTENT CHANCES
OF SNOW WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED 500MB SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEAST MN/ WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE U.P. TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE GENERALLY KEEPING THE BETTER
FORCING/HEAVIER PRECIPITATION JUST NORTH OF THE CWA MAINLY OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ONTARIO. THE SYSTEM SNOW WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK AND
GENERALLY LIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF PROGGED TO BE AROUND 0.15
INCHES. SNOWFALL RATIOS SHOULD NOT BE THAT IMPRESSIVE EITHER AS THE
MOIST LAYER IN THE DGZ IS ELEVATED BETWEEN ABOUT 700MB AND 6000MB
WITH FAIRLY GUSTY WINDS BELOW THAT LAYER...EFFECTIVELY HELPING TO
SHEAR THE LARGER DENDRITES APART. THIS WOULD LIKELY GIVE SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS SOMEWHERE AROUND 12 TO 15 ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...KEEPING THE SYSTEM SNOW TOTALS BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND THE CHANNELING EFFECT BETWEEN THE KEWEENAW...ISLE ROYALE AND THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN WILL INCREASE THE GALE POTENTIAL IN THOSE AREAS.
GUSTS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY REACH BETWEEN 35 AND
40KNOTS. EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KNOTS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW ALONG
THE SHORELINES AS WELL. THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT THURSDAY
AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD...THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST AND
850MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO THE -12 TO -15C RANGE. THE BIGGEST IMPACT
WOULD BE FOR NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS THURSDAY MORNING AND
THEN NORTH WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD GIVE
THOSE AREAS AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW. AS THE WINDS BECOME
NORTHERLY THERE COULD BE YET ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALES OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND 35 KNOTS.
THE LOW AND TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST THURSDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING A BIT DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN AND THE INVERSION HEIGHT TO
BECOME VERY SHALLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW THE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
BECOME MUCH LIGHTER ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE UPPER PENINSULA FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING DRIER
AIR...LIGHT WINDS AND A VERY BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE NAM/GFS/GEM ARE ALL
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PLACEMENT OF BOTH THE SURFACE FEATURES
AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THE MAIN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT IS THE LAST
FEW RUNS OF THE EC...WHICH HAS EVEN HAD RUN TO RUN ISSUES. LEANING
MORE TOWARD THE GFS...MOISTURE WOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE U.P. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASING ON WAA INTO THE REGION.
THIS WOULD ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY
EVENING...THE GFS/GEM HAVE A DRY SLOT SLIDING ACROSS THE U.P. WHICH
MAY CHANGE THE LIGHT SNOW OVER TO LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE...HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD BE VERY BRIEF AS THE CORE OF THE
SYSTEM SLIDES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND TO SOUTHWEST
QUEBEC BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP SNOW IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. SIMILAR TO THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
SYSTEM...SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 12 TO 15 RANGE
DUE TO THE ELEVATED DGZ ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
COLUMN. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS SHOW AROUND 0.15 TO 0.25 INCHES OF
LIQUID QPF PAINTED OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE U.P. WITH MOST OF THAT
OCCURRING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS ALONG WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WOULD GIVE MOST OF THE AREA
BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF SNOW. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WOULD NOT BE
FAVORABLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS 850MB ARE PROGGED TO BE A BIT
TOO WARM.
THE REMAINING EXTENDED...THE PATTERN ONCE AGAIN BECOMES VERY MESSY
FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF SNOW
WILL DOMINATE THIS TIME PERIOD. THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING AND
INTENSITY DIFFERENCES BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. CONFIDENCE IN
ANY SINGLE MODEL SOLUTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS
POINT...THEREFORE WILL STICK WITH A CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS TO AT
LEAST SHOW THE INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF SNOW FOR THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL TONIGHT AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW...BUT EXPECT SOME PERIODS OF VFR AS WELL. AS WINDS
SLOWLY BACK AND SHIFT LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
NORTHWARD...KSAW WILL BECOME PREVAILING VFR BY LATE EVENING...AIDED
BY DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPE WIND. KIWD WILL IMPROVE TO PREVAILING MVFR
EARLY WED MORNING WITH KCMX FOLLOWING A FEW HRS LATER. GUSTY SW
WINDS WILL DEVELOP WED AFTN AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN
DEPARTING HIGH PRES RIDGE AND A LOW PRES MOVING INTO NRN ONTARIO.
THAT LOW WILL ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF -SN AND IFR CONDITIONS TO
KIWD/KCMX IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT KSAW LATE
IN THE FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON AS A
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY NORTH WINDS
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS EVENING AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS. THE
NEXT PERIOD FOR STRONGER WINDS WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SW GALES TO 35 KNOTS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS STAY NEAR 30 KNOTS INTO THU AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
SLIDES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FROM CANADA...BRINGING
GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 30 KNOTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. A
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING WINDS LESS THAN 25 KNOTS FOR
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR LESS THAN 25 KNOTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ266-
267.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ TO 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/
WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ162-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
353 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR TROFFING OVER
CENTRAL NAMERICA BTWN RIDGES ALONG THE W COAST AND OVER THE E. THERE
ARE TWO SHRTWVS OF INTEREST EMBEDDED IN THE SEPARATE NRN AND SRN
BRANCHES MAKING UP THIS TROF. AN AXIS OF SOME DEEPER MSTR AHEAD OF
THE NRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE DID BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SN TO THE
W...BUT INFLUX OF MID LVL DRY AIR ARND H7 AS SHOWN ON THE 12Z MPX
AND GRB RAOBS IS RESTRICTING THE LINGERING PCPN TO OVER WRN LK SUP.
MOIST LLVLS BLO THIS MID LVL DRY AIR AS DEPICTED ON THE 12Z GRB AND
APX RAOBS HAS RESULTED IN SOME FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DZ MAINLY
OVER THE CENTRAL CWA...AS DGZ IS WELL ABOVE THE SHALLOW MSTR WHERE
ICE CRYSTALS ARE ABSENT. LOOKING TO THE SW...A STRONGER NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHRTWV THAT CAUSED 12HR H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 100M IS MOVING
NEWD THRU MISSOURI TOWARD THE UPR MIDWEST.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON LINGERING FREEZING DZ
AND THEN ON ARRIVAL OF HIER POPS TNGT/NEED FOR ADDITIONAL HEADLINES
AS SRN BRANCH SHRTWV LIFTS INTO THE WRN LKS.
TNGT...SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD IS FCST TO REACH SCENTRAL LK MI ARND 06Z
TUE BEFORE MOVING TOWARD SE ONTARIO BY 12Z...WITHOUT PHASING WITH
THE NRN BRANCH SHRTWV FCST TO DIG INTO THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY. WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MSTR...EXPECT LINGERING FREEZING DZ TO
TRANSITION TO MAINLY SN DURING THE EVNG. BAND OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC/UPR DVGC/FAIRLY SLOPED BAND OF FGEN ON THE CYC SIDE OF THE
SHRTWV TRACK IS FCST TO IMPACT MAINLY THE SE HALF OF THE CWA. PERIOD
OF SHARPER DYNAMIC FORCING IS FCST TO LAST ABOUT 6 HRS. CONSIDERING
3G/KG SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FCST IN THE H7-75 LYR OVER THE FAR
SCENTRAL...SUSPECT SN ACCUMS WL REACH 3-4 INCHES OVER THE FAR SE CWA
WITH POOR SN/WATER RATIOS ASSOCIATED WITH HI/RATHER NARROW DGZ.
ALTHOUGH THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE IS
PROGGED TO MISS THE WRN ZNS...THE ARPCH OF THE NRN BRANCH SHRTWV/
ACCOMPANYING DYNAMIC FORCING LATE IN TANDEM WITH SHARPENING CYC NW
FLOW/DEEPENING MSTR AND H85 TEMPS FALLING TO ARND -11C...EXPECT
INCRSG POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE IN THAT AREA OVERNGT. AS FOR
HEADLINES...OPTED TO HOLD ON TO THE ADVY ISSUED BY THE NGT SHIFT FOR
MENOMINEE COUNTY...WHERE UP TO 4 INCHES STILL APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE
SRN HALF OF THE COUNTY PER EXPECTED DYNAMICS/MSTR AS DISCUSSED
ABOVE. TRANSIENT NATURE OF FORCING/GREATER MSTR REMAINING TO THE S
AND LACK OF PHASING BTWN SHRTWVS DOES NOT JUSTIFY EXTENDING
HEADLINES TO THE REST OF THE CWA. OPTED TO ISSUE AN SPS TO DISCUSS
THE FREEZING DRIZZLE/TRANSITION TO SN THIS EVNG WITH UP TO 3 INCHES
OVER MOST OF THE CWA DURING THE NGT.
TUE...NRN BRANCH SHRTWV IS FCST TO SLIDE INTO LOWER MI LATE IN THE
DAY. A PERIOD OF LK ENHANCED SN UNDER ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC/HIER RH AS WELL AS UPSLOPE/CYC NNW FLOW WL BE THE RULE NEAR LK
SUP AS H85 TEMPS FALL TOWARD -15C. BUT OVER THE SCENTRAL/SE CWA...
PRESENCE OF DOWNSLOPE NW WIND COMPONENT WL TEND TO OFFSET THIS
DYANMIC SUPPORT...RESULTING IN NO HIER THAN CHC POPS. FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHRTWV TO THE E IN THE AFTN...EXPECT THE COVERAGE/
INTENSITY OF THE SN SHOWERS TO DIMINISH EVEN NEAR THE LK OVER THE W
HALF WITH ARRIVAL OF MID LVL DRYING THAT WL BRING A TRANSITION TO
PURE LES. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS ON TUE WL BE UP TO ABOUT 3 INCHES.
INCLUDED MENTION OF THIS SUB ADVY LES IN THE SPS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF SNOW
WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
BROUGHT THE SYSTEM SNOW OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS WILL BE POSITIONED
OVER NORTHEASTERN QUEBEC WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTH AND WESTWARD
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. ALOFT...THE UPPER LEVEL
500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE U.P. NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE EVENING...LINGERING LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO BE AROUND -16C
WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. INVERSION
HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 6KFT OVER THE AREA AS THE AXIS
SLIDES THROUGH WHICH WILL KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
FALLING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT...WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST ALLOWING THE LAKE EFFECT
POTENTIAL TO SHIFT TO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND FAR EASTERN U.P.
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD AS A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY. ALOFT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AND SLIGHT RIDGING WILL SLIDE INTO THE U.P. DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE 850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -
6C...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND EVEN DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY BRING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED 500MB SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN MN WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE U.P. TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS/EC KEEP THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE CWA
MAINLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WHILE THE GEM/NAM HAVE THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION A BIT FARTHER SOUTH SLIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.P. EITHER WAY THE SYSTEM SNOW SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUICK AND
GENERALLY LIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF PROGGED TO BE AROUND 0.15
INCHES. SNOWFALL RATIOS SHOULD NOT BE THAT IMPRESSIVE EITHER AS THE
MOIST LAYER IN THE DGZ IS ELEVATED BETWEEN ABOUT 650MB AND 550MB
WITH FAIRLY GUSTY WINDS BELOW THAT LAYER...EFFECTIVELY HELPING TO
SHRED THE LARGER DENDRITES. THIS WOULD GIVE SNOW RATIOS AROUND 12 TO
15 ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...KEEPING THE SYSTEM SNOW TOTALS BETWEEN
1 TO 3 INCHES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION...SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE SQUEEZING EFFECT BETWEEN THE
KEWEENAW...ISLE ROYALE AND THE ARROWHEAD OF MN WILL INCREASE THE
GALE POTENTIAL IN THOSE AREAS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW
ALONG THE SHORELINES AS WELL. THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER HEAD AND 850MB TEMPERATURES
FALL TO NEAR -10 TO -11C...MAINLY FOR NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. THIS COULD GIVE THOSE AREAS AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. THE LOW AND TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A BIT DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN AND THE
INVERSION HEIGHT WILL BECOME VERY SHALLOW.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BECOME VERY LIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED...
INTERMITTENT CHANCE OF SNOW WILL DOMINATE THIS TIME PERIOD. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES IN A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
ON FRIDAY AND THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY LOW AT
THIS POINT...SO WILL STICK WITH A CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS TO AT
LEAST SHOW THE INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF SNOW FOR THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT SAW THIS AFTN WITH MOIST LLVL SE
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG LO PRES FM THE SW RESULTING IN AN UPSLOPE
WIND COMPONENT THERE. SINCE THE FLOW WL NOT BE AS FVRBL FOR IWD AND
CMX...MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE AT THOSE LOCATIONS. AS THE
LO PRES TO THE SW MOVES CLOSER TNGT...MORE WIDESPREAD SN WL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND DROP CONDITIONS TO IFR/LIFR. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY LATE MRNG ON TUE AT SAW AND CMX FOLLOWING THE EXIT
OF THE LO PRES TO THE E AND WSHFT TO A LESS FVRBL NNW DIRECTION. BUT
LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST AT IWD WITH SHARPER UPSLOPE
WIND COMPONENT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY NORTH WINDS
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS
WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS LESS THAN 25 KNOTS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY A
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FROM
CANADA...BRINGING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE SHIFTING NORTH TO 30 KNOTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING
WINDS LESS THAN 25 KNOTS FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
TUESDAY FOR MIZ012.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
329 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR TROFFING OVER
CENTRAL NAMERICA BTWN RIDGES ALONG THE W COAST AND OVER THE E. THERE
ARE TWO SHRTWVS OF INTEREST EMBEDDED IN THE SEPARATE NRN AND SRN
BRANCHES MAKING UP THIS TROF. AN AXIS OF SOME DEEPER MSTR AHEAD OF
THE NRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE DID BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SN TO THE
W...BUT INFLUX OF MID LVL DRY AIR ARND H7 AS SHOWN ON THE 12Z MPX
AND GRB RAOBS IS RESTRICTING THE LINGERING PCPN TO OVER WRN LK SUP.
MOIST LLVLS BLO THIS MID LVL DRY AIR AS DEPICTED ON THE 12Z GRB AND
APX RAOBS HAS RESULTED IN SOME FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DZ MAINLY
OVER THE CENTRAL CWA...AS DGZ IS WELL ABOVE THE SHALLOW MSTR WHERE
ICE CRYSTALS ARE ABSENT. LOOKING TO THE SW...A STRONGER NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHRTWV THAT CAUSED 12HR H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 100M IS MOVING
NEWD THRU MISSOURI TOWARD THE UPR MIDWEST.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON LINGERING FREEZING DZ
AND THEN ON ARRIVAL OF HIER POPS TNGT/NEED FOR ADDITIONAL HEADLINES
AS SRN BRANCH SHRTWV LIFTS INTO THE WRN LKS.
TNGT...SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD IS FCST TO REACH SCENTRAL LK MI ARND 06Z
TUE BEFORE MOVING TOWARD SE ONTARIO BY 12Z...WITHOUT PHASING WITH
THE NRN BRANCH SHRTWV FCST TO DIG INTO THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY. WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MSTR...EXPECT LINGERING FREEZING DZ TO
TRANSITION TO MAINLY SN DURING THE EVNG. BAND OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC/UPR DVGC/FAIRLY SLOPED BAND OF FGEN ON THE CYC SIDE OF THE
SHRTWV TRACK IS FCST TO IMPACT MAINLY THE SE HALF OF THE CWA. PERIOD
OF SHARPER DYNAMIC FORCING IS FCST TO LAST ABOUT 6 HRS. CONSIDERING
3G/KG SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FCST IN THE H7-75 LYR OVER THE FAR
SCENTRAL...SUSPECT SN ACCUMS WL REACH 3-4 INCHES OVER THE FAR SE CWA
WITH POOR SN/WATER RATIOS ASSOCIATED WITH HI/RATHER NARROW DGZ.
ALTHOUGH THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE IS
PROGGED TO MISS THE WRN ZNS...THE ARPCH OF THE NRN BRANCH SHRTWV/
ACCOMPANYING DYNAMIC FORCING LATE IN TANDEM WITH SHARPENING CYC NW
FLOW/DEEPENING MSTR AND H85 TEMPS FALLING TO ARND -11C...EXPECT
INCRSG POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE IN THAT AREA OVERNGT. AS FOR
HEADLINES...OPTED TO HOLD ON TO THE ADVY ISSUED BY THE NGT SHIFT FOR
MENOMINEE COUNTY...WHERE UP TO 4 INCHES STILL APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE
SRN HALF OF THE COUNTY PER EXPECTED DYNAMICS/MSTR AS DISCUSSED
ABOVE. TRANSIENT NATURE OF FORCING/GREATER MSTR REMAINING TO THE S
AND LACK OF PHASING BTWN SHRTWVS DOES NOT JUSTIFY EXTENDING
HEADLINES TO THE REST OF THE CWA. OPTED TO ISSUE AN SPS TO DISCUSS
THE FREEZING DRIZZLE/TRANSITION TO SN THIS EVNG WITH UP TO 3 INCHES
OVER MOST OF THE CWA DURING THE NGT.
TUE...NRN BRANCH SHRTWV IS FCST TO SLIDE INTO LOWER MI LATE IN THE
DAY. A PERIOD OF LK ENHANCED SN UNDER ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC/HIER RH AS WELL AS UPSLOPE/CYC NNW FLOW WL BE THE RULE NEAR LK
SUP AS H85 TEMPS FALL TOWARD -15C. BUT OVER THE SCENTRAL/SE CWA...
PRESENCE OF DOWNSLOPE NW WIND COMPONENT WL TEND TO OFFSET THIS
DYANMIC SUPPORT...RESULTING IN NO HIER THAN CHC POPS. FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHRTWV TO THE E IN THE AFTN...EXPECT THE COVERAGE/
INTENSITY OF THE SN SHOWERS TO DIMINISH EVEN NEAR THE LK OVER THE W
HALF WITH ARRIVAL OF MID LVL DRYING THAT WL BRING A TRANSITION TO
PURE LES. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS ON TUE WL BE UP TO ABOUT 3 INCHES.
INCLUDED MENTION OF THIS SUB ADVY LES IN THE SPS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EST MON JAN 25 2016
THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE FROM LAKE MI TO FAR W LAKE HURON BY 12Z
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL PUT UPPER MI IN A FAVORABLE BACK SIDE OF THE
SFC LOW FOR LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ON N-NW WINDS.
ADDING TO THE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE THE MAIN 500MB TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. COOLER AIR SINKING IN WILL ALLOW THE
DGZ TO FALL FROM AROUND 10KFT TO NEAR 5KFT ABOVE THE SFC. 850MB
TEMPS STARTING OFF AT -5 TO -10C /LOWEST W/ WILL FALL TO AN AVERAGE
-15C BY THE END OF THE DAY. 1 TO 3 IN OF NEW SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH TOTALS ELSEWHERE
AROUND AN INCH OR LESS.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE START OF MORE SIGIFICANT DRYING AS
INVERSION HIGHTS FALL BELOW 5KFT...WITH THE SFC LOW EXITING ACROSS
ONTARIO AND APEX OF THE TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
NEW SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO TOTAL AROUND AN INCH OR LESS.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS DIMINISH ALONG THE WI BORDER...MID
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH TEENS ALONG THE
LAKE SUPERIOR LAKESHORE AND E. PUSH SNOW SHOWERS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA AND SW FLOW RETURNS
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE.
THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST SHOULD BRING ANOTHER 2-4IN CWA WIDE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SINKING FROM S CENTRAL CANADA THE
SFC LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO/UPPER MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
CANADIAN AND SREF ARE ON A SLIGHTLY MORE N TRACK WITH THIS
LWO...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF TRACK IT RIGHT ALONG THE N SHORE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR 06-12Z THURSDAY. KEEPING THE HIGHEST POPS /STILL
CHANCE/ N REMAINS A GOOD IDEA...CLOSER TO THE LOW.
WHILE THIS PERIOD WILL NOT ALWAYS HAVE SNOW...THE LIMITED BREAKS AND
TIMING CONCERNS AT THAT DISTANCE WILL RESULT IN KEEPING CHANCE POPS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW OVER S CENTRAL CANADA
AND N DAKOTA FRIDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE OVERALL PATTERN GETS MORE JUMBLED AS WE MOVE THROUGH
FRIDAY..WITH EITHER A TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...OR MORE
ZONAL FLOW THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SMALL AND
DIFFICULT DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH. WILL KEEP WITH A GENERAL
MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT SAW THIS AFTN WITH MOIST LLVL SE
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG LO PRES FM THE SW RESULTING IN AN UPSLOPE
WIND COMPONENT THERE. SINCE THE FLOW WL NOT BE AS FVRBL FOR IWD AND
CMX...MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE AT THOSE LOCATIONS. AS THE
LO PRES TO THE SW MOVES CLOSER TNGT...MORE WIDESPREAD SN WL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND DROP CONDITIONS TO IFR/LIFR. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY LATE MRNG ON TUE AT SAW AND CMX FOLLOWING THE EXIT
OF THE LO PRES TO THE E AND WSHFT TO A LESS FVRBL NNW DIRECTION. BUT
LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST AT IWD WITH SHARPER UPSLOPE
WIND COMPONENT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST MON JAN 25 2016
STRONGEST WINDS THIS PERIOD WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES
THROUGH THE AREA. NORTH WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WITH A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THEN. WINDS GET UP TO 30 KNOTS
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON WED NIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
TUESDAY FOR MIZ012.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
541 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE NORTHLAND TOMORROW...WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST 12Z MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...OTHER THAN MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES...AND GENERALLY INCREASED PCPN AMOUNTS. INCREASED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH...AROUND 3 INCHES. HELD OFF ON A WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINE...BUT THE EVENING OR NIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO ISSUE ONE IF
THE SNOWFALL FORECAST TRENDS A BIT GREATER.
AT 330 PM...THE NORTHLAND HAD WNW TO NW FLOW AND BKN/OVC STRATUS.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 20S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST...WITH A POTENT
SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WAS OVER NW ONTARIO...SE MANITOBA...AND THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS.
THERE WILL BE LINGERING OVERCAST STRATUS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERING LATER TONIGHT WHEN
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL ALSO
BE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN IRON COUNTY...WHERE AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
HIGHER CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT...AND ITS POSSIBLE
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP PROP UP THE TEMPERATURES...AS
WELL AS THE SW FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A LITTLE ABOVE 10 DEGREES.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DIG ACROSS CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
AND MANITOBA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND NW ONTARIO DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS CLIPPER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT
SHORTWAVE WITH THE PASSING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BRING A QUICK BURST OF SNOW...BEGINNING IN THE NW DURING
THE MIDDLE MORNING...AND SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. THE SNOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTIER
WINDS...ABOUT 10 TO 20 MPH...SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF
VISIBILITY APPROACHING A HALF MILE OR LESS WHEN THE SNOW IS AT ITS
MOST INTENSE. WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
FORECAST...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...SUCH
AS OVER THE BOUNDARY WATERS. HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT THERE COULD
BE BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE WAKE OF
THE MAIN BAND OF SNOW...WHEN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS DRY AND THERE
REMAINS A RELATIVELY WARM LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER. THE NAM12
SOUNDINGS HAVE A SHORT PERIOD WHERE THE SATURATED LAYER COULD BE
DEEP ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT ENOUGH OF MOISTURE FOR DRIZZLE...BUT
THE GFS SOUNDINGS ARE NOT NEARLY AS DEEP. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN
ITS OCCURRENCE...SO LEFT FREEZING DRIZZLE OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE
NIGHT SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO LOOK MORE INTO DETAIL INTO THIS THREAT
WHEN THE HRRR AND RAP13 ARE WITHIN RANGE OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW
30S.
MORE SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MAINTAINING LOW CHANCES OF LINGERING SNOW AND FLURRIES.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER WILL NOT PASS THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY...SO OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND 5 TO 15 MPH WIND SPEEDS. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
DEPARTING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY MORNING. COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW SHOULD
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LES IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. RELATIVELY HIGH
WIND SPEEDS IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER SUGGESTS THE SNOW SHOWERS
WOULD PENETRATE WELL INLAND. AS A RESULT HAVE HELD ONTO HIGHER
POPS SOUTHEAST INTO SAWYER AND PRICE COUNTIES THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL DEPART FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH THE
EXITING LOW...SO THINK AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW ANOTHER INCH OR TWO AT
THE MOST.
THE NEXT QUICK HITTING SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THERE ARE PRETTY DISTINCT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC MEMBERS AND HAVE KEPT POPS
UNCHANGED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOISTURE SEEMS LIMITED AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...MAINLY WHATEVER BITS OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN IT CAN CARRY
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THINK SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH THE LARGER TOTALS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND OVER
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE ARROWHEAD.
BEHIND CLIPPER NUMBER TWO...GUIDANCE SEEMS SPLIT BETWEEN THE
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION OF A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND...AND THE GFS WHICH BRINGS ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EVEN WITH THE MORE ZONAL
BLEND...THINK THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIFT LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA TO SUPPORT LOW CHANCE POPS/CLOUDS.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS SEEM TO TREND TOWARD A
SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH THE HANDLING OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM TROF. QUASI-ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS/CONTINUES OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE TROF BEGINS TO DIG
INTO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
A WEAK SFC TROF WAS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE FORECAST. THIS WAS CREATING A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH SOME
FLURRIES ACROSS THE TERMINALS. AS THIS TROF MOVES AWAY...A SFC
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING
PREDOMINATELY MVFR CIGS TO THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND END
THE FLURRIES. SOME LLWS IS EXPECTED BY 09Z AT INL/HIB AND AROUND
11Z AT DLH/BRD/HYR. THIS IS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
THAT GRADUALLY DISSOLVES BY 15Z. A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS RIGHT BEHIND
AND BRINGS LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS AND ENDS THE LLWS.
THIS WILL AFFECT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 12 30 26 27 / 10 90 30 10
INL 12 31 23 26 / 10 90 50 10
BRD 12 33 28 30 / 10 60 10 10
HYR 11 31 28 31 / 10 80 40 20
ASX 14 32 27 30 / 10 80 40 50
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1204 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
BASED ON THE SNOWFALL REPORTS COMING IN TODAY...IT SEEMED THE
SNOWFALL FORECAST WAS A BIT TOO LOW. INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF
DOUGLAS AND BAYFIELD COUNTIES. FELT THE INCREASE REQUIRED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL ST LOUIS COUNTY AND SOUTHERN ITASCA
COUNTY FOR TWO TO FOUR INCHES IN TOTAL...EVEN THOUGH SOME OF THAT
SNOW HAS ALREADY FALLEN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
UPDATED THE PCPN CHANCES AND WEATHER THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY...BLENDING THE LATEST HRRR/RAP12/NAM12 INTO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS NW WISCONSIN
TODAY LOOKS VERY LOW...AND PRIMARILY FOR THE FAR SE FORECAST
AREA. IT WAS HARD TO JUSTIFY MAINTAINING THE ADVISORIES FOR
BURNETT AND WASHBURN COUNTIES BASED ON THE VERY LOW THREAT...SO
CANCELLED THE ADVISORIES FOR THOSE TWO COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
A MIX OF SNOW AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH A SWATH OF 2-5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. A LACK OF ICE
CRYSTALS THROUGH THE COLUMN HAS RESULTED IN FREEZING DRIZZLE
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE...AN ISSUE WHICH WILL
PERSIST INTO THE DAY ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WEAKER THAN USUAL
LARGE-SCALE LIFT IS RESULTING IN A CHALLENGING FORECAST...THE LACK
OF STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING SIGNALS BRINGS INTO QUESTION JUST HOW
INTENSE SNOWFALL WILL BE TODAY. TEMPS REMAIN QUITE MILD TODAY...THEN
A BATCH OF MORE SEASONABLE AIR ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A SOMEWHAT COMPLEX MIX OF WEAK FORCING IS
RESULTING IN A CHALLENGING FORECAST. AT THE SURFACE A SFC
TROUGH/FRONT FROM YESTERDAY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...IT HAS BECOME EAST-WEST ORIENTED OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
THIS MORNING AND WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS A WEAK
WARM FRONT BEFORE COLD AIR RUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A
MID-LEVEL WAVE RESULTING IN IT TAKING A TURN EASTWARD AS A COLD
FRONT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AT UPPER LEVELS A MID-LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN. THESE TWO FEATURES LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE MIDWEST TODAY RESULTING IN A DEEPENING SFC
LOW OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI NORTHEAST TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
MOST OF THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOCUSED
FURTHER SOUTH...BUT AHEAD OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS FROM THE MID-
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AN AREA OF ENHANCED FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP TODAY. WHILE THIS
EVOLUTION HAS BEEN FAIRLY WELL PREDICTED...THERE REMAINS MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN WHERE EXACTLY THE BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL LINE UP
TODAY. HOWEVER...OVERALL NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AS
THE MOST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LAKE MILLE LACS TO THE TWIN PORTS
WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL...BUT AROUND THIS AREA SNOWFALL
TOTALS AND PRECIPITATION TYPE IS A LITTLE BIT LESS CERTAIN.
NORTHEAST MN...TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF LAKE MILLE LACS TO TWIN
PORTS AREA PRECIP WILL FALL AS MAINLY SNOW...WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGE
AS TO HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL DEVELOPS. FOR
NOW CONTINUED WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM AN
EXTREME EASTERN BAND...EVEN MISSING DLH...FROM THE LOCAL DLH
WRF...TO THE NCAR WRF-DART ENSEMBLE WHICH CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT
MAINLY ALL OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WELL INTO THE ARROWHEAD WITH 2 TO
4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL AND A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE HRRR IS
CLOSER TO THIS SOLUTION AND IN FACT VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
FORECASTING TO THE BEST FEW DAYS WITH 2-4 INCHES FROM THE
BRAINERD/LAKE MILLE LACS REGION TO SOUTH OF THE IRON RANGE...SO FEEL
FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN THE EXTENT OF POPS/SNOW. SNOWFALL IS ALREADY
BEGINNING AS OF 3 AM AROUND LAKE MILLE LACS...AND WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THIS MORNING. THE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL WEAK
LARGE-SCALE FORCING DO NOT ANTICIPATE INCREDIBLY INTENSE SNOWFALL
RATES.
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...A MUCH DIFFERENT STORY WITH CONFIDENCE LOWER
ON PRECIPITATION TYPE AND ACCUMULATION INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
WHILE NEAR THE MN BORDER DO EXPECT A BAND OF SNOWFALL TODAY WITH
AMOUNTS APPROACHING 2 TO 4 INCHES...FARTHER EAST WILL BE A DIFFERENT
STORY TODAY. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON TODAY DUE TO A LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE
ALOFT...RESULTING IN A LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS. NOT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN THE MAIN SFC LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DOES THE
MOISTURE MOVE EAST INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN RESULTING IN A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME THE LARGE-SCALE
FORCING...ALREADY GENERALLY WEAK...BECOMES WEAKER RESULTING IN LOWER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...LESS THAN 2 INCHES IN SPOTS. WHILE THIS IS LESS
THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR SNOWFALL...ULTIMATELY DECIDED TO KEEP THE
ADVISORY OUT BECAUSE OF THE MIXED PRECIP POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WITH
PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. BULK OF SNOWFALL WILL FALL IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND AS
THE SFC LOW LIFTS EAST ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WINDS TURN
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY AND COLD AIR RUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LAKE
EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.
FINALLY...LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ARRIVES IN A CLIPPER-LIKE FASHION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH WHICH MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER BATCH OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...THOUGH AS THE COLDER AND DRIER AIR IS
ADVECTED THERE COULD BE SOME LOSS OF ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT RESULTING IN
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX INSTEAD. FOR NOW THIS SEEMS LIKE A FAIRLY LOW-
IMPACT FEATURE COMPARED TO THE INFLUENCES FROM THE MAIN LONGWAVE
TROUGH FEATURE.
TEMPS MILD TODAY THEN FALLING TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGHS
AROUND 30 THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID TEENS
IN NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TONIGHT...WARMER IN THE LOW
20S IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
MID 20S TOMORROW...COLDEST IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.
WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25-30 MPH AT TIMES. THIS COULD
RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE TWIN PORTS AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. ADDED
SOME CONSERVATIVE PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WORDING TO THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AS NORTH
WINDS AND SURFACE RIDGING SETTLES INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE CHANCE OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED...THOUGH...AS WINDS
ALREADY BACK TO THE WEST DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE NIGHT.
THIS SHOULD SHUT OFF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE FOR THE GOGEBIC
RANGE AND THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM
WILL THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE...AND
WE HAVE INCREASED POPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST 1/2 TO 2/3
OF THE CWA. WHILE THERE IS A DISAGREEMENT IN TERMS OF THE OVERALL
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS SHORTWAVE...THE MAIN FORCING IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN. DEFINITELY CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE FROM
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION INTO THE ARROWHEAD. NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. CHANCES WILL BE TEMPERED
SOMEWHAT BY THE RELATIVELY MILD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. THE NEARLY
MERIDIONAL FLOW ON THURSDAY WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW
BY THE WEEKEND. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION. THE
GFS AND ECMWF DO EXHIBIT SOME TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL THE SURFACE LOW AND ACTUAL IMPACT APPEARS FAIRLY LOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S TO MIDDLE
30S. AS A RESULT...WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AT
TIMES. CONFIDENCE IN DRIZZLE FORECASTING AT THAT RANGE IS LOW SO
WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN MISSOURI LATE THIS MORNING WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO THE NORTHLAND. AN AREA OF FGEN
FORCING WAS AIDING IN PRODUCING SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND...AND THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON...LIFTING A BIT TO
IFR/MVFR TONIGHT AS THE SNOW STARTS TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST.
SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...INCLUDING KHYR...THEN TURN TO ALL SNOW TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN START TO INCREASE
OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE LOW GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO MICHIGAN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 19 21 9 26 / 90 10 0 30
INL 14 18 3 28 / 30 10 0 60
BRD 17 22 10 29 / 50 10 0 30
HYR 22 24 7 27 / 100 30 10 30
ASX 23 25 10 27 / 90 50 20 30
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ001-
002.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ003-008-
009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ004.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ019-
026-033>038.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1139 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
UPDATED THE PCPN CHANCES AND WEATHER THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY...BLENDING THE LATEST HRRR/RAP12/NAM12 INTO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS NW WISCONSIN
TODAY LOOKS VERY LOW...AND PRIMARILY FOR THE FAR SE FORECAST
AREA. IT WAS HARD TO JUSTIFY MAINTAINING THE ADVISORIES FOR
BURNETT AND WASHBURN COUNTIES BASED ON THE VERY LOW THREAT...SO
CANCELLED THE ADVISORIES FOR THOSE TWO COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
A MIX OF SNOW AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH A SWATH OF 2-5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. A LACK OF ICE
CRYSTALS THROUGH THE COLUMN HAS RESULTED IN FREEZING DRIZZLE
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE...AN ISSUE WHICH WILL
PERSIST INTO THE DAY ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WEAKER THAN USUAL
LARGE-SCALE LIFT IS RESULTING IN A CHALLENGING FORECAST...THE LACK
OF STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING SIGNALS BRINGS INTO QUESTION JUST HOW
INTENSE SNOWFALL WILL BE TODAY. TEMPS REMAIN QUITE MILD TODAY...THEN
A BATCH OF MORE SEASONABLE AIR ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A SOMEWHAT COMPLEX MIX OF WEAK FORCING IS
RESULTING IN A CHALLENGING FORECAST. AT THE SURFACE A SFC
TROUGH/FRONT FROM YESTERDAY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...IT HAS BECOME EAST-WEST ORIENTED OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
THIS MORNING AND WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS A WEAK
WARM FRONT BEFORE COLD AIR RUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A
MID-LEVEL WAVE RESULTING IN IT TAKING A TURN EASTWARD AS A COLD
FRONT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AT UPPER LEVELS A MID-LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN. THESE TWO FEATURES LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE MIDWEST TODAY RESULTING IN A DEEPENING SFC
LOW OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI NORTHEAST TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
MOST OF THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOCUSED
FURTHER SOUTH...BUT AHEAD OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS FROM THE MID-
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AN AREA OF ENHANCED FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP TODAY. WHILE THIS
EVOLUTION HAS BEEN FAIRLY WELL PREDICTED...THERE REMAINS MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN WHERE EXACTLY THE BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL LINE UP
TODAY. HOWEVER...OVERALL NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AS
THE MOST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LAKE MILLE LACS TO THE TWIN PORTS
WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL...BUT AROUND THIS AREA SNOWFALL
TOTALS AND PRECIPITATION TYPE IS A LITTLE BIT LESS CERTAIN.
NORTHEAST MN...TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF LAKE MILLE LACS TO TWIN
PORTS AREA PRECIP WILL FALL AS MAINLY SNOW...WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGE
AS TO HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL DEVELOPS. FOR
NOW CONTINUED WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM AN
EXTREME EASTERN BAND...EVEN MISSING DLH...FROM THE LOCAL DLH
WRF...TO THE NCAR WRF-DART ENSEMBLE WHICH CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT
MAINLY ALL OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WELL INTO THE ARROWHEAD WITH 2 TO
4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL AND A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE HRRR IS
CLOSER TO THIS SOLUTION AND IN FACT VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
FORECASTING TO THE BEST FEW DAYS WITH 2-4 INCHES FROM THE
BRAINERD/LAKE MILLE LACS REGION TO SOUTH OF THE IRON RANGE...SO FEEL
FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN THE EXTENT OF POPS/SNOW. SNOWFALL IS ALREADY
BEGINNING AS OF 3 AM AROUND LAKE MILLE LACS...AND WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THIS MORNING. THE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL WEAK
LARGE-SCALE FORCING DO NOT ANTICIPATE INCREDIBLY INTENSE SNOWFALL
RATES.
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...A MUCH DIFFERENT STORY WITH CONFIDENCE LOWER
ON PRECIPITATION TYPE AND ACCUMULATION INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
WHILE NEAR THE MN BORDER DO EXPECT A BAND OF SNOWFALL TODAY WITH
AMOUNTS APPROACHING 2 TO 4 INCHES...FARTHER EAST WILL BE A DIFFERENT
STORY TODAY. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON TODAY DUE TO A LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE
ALOFT...RESULTING IN A LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS. NOT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN THE MAIN SFC LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DOES THE
MOISTURE MOVE EAST INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN RESULTING IN A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME THE LARGE-SCALE
FORCING...ALREADY GENERALLY WEAK...BECOMES WEAKER RESULTING IN LOWER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...LESS THAN 2 INCHES IN SPOTS. WHILE THIS IS LESS
THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR SNOWFALL...ULTIMATELY DECIDED TO KEEP THE
ADVISORY OUT BECAUSE OF THE MIXED PRECIP POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WITH
PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. BULK OF SNOWFALL WILL FALL IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND AS
THE SFC LOW LIFTS EAST ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WINDS TURN
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY AND COLD AIR RUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LAKE
EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.
FINALLY...LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ARRIVES IN A CLIPPER-LIKE FASHION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH WHICH MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER BATCH OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...THOUGH AS THE COLDER AND DRIER AIR IS
ADVECTED THERE COULD BE SOME LOSS OF ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT RESULTING IN
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX INSTEAD. FOR NOW THIS SEEMS LIKE A FAIRLY LOW-
IMPACT FEATURE COMPARED TO THE INFLUENCES FROM THE MAIN LONGWAVE
TROUGH FEATURE.
TEMPS MILD TODAY THEN FALLING TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGHS
AROUND 30 THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID TEENS
IN NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TONIGHT...WARMER IN THE LOW
20S IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
MID 20S TOMORROW...COLDEST IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.
WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25-30 MPH AT TIMES. THIS COULD
RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE TWIN PORTS AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. ADDED
SOME CONSERVATIVE PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WORDING TO THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AS NORTH
WINDS AND SURFACE RIDGING SETTLES INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE CHANCE OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED...THOUGH...AS WINDS
ALREADY BACK TO THE WEST DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE NIGHT.
THIS SHOULD SHUT OFF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE FOR THE GOGEBIC
RANGE AND THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM
WILL THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE...AND
WE HAVE INCREASED POPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST 1/2 TO 2/3
OF THE CWA. WHILE THERE IS A DISAGREEMENT IN TERMS OF THE OVERALL
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS SHORTWAVE...THE MAIN FORCING IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN. DEFINITELY CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE FROM
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION INTO THE ARROWHEAD. NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. CHANCES WILL BE TEMPERED
SOMEWHAT BY THE RELATIVELY MILD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. THE NEARLY
MERIDIONAL FLOW ON THURSDAY WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW
BY THE WEEKEND. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION. THE
GFS AND ECMWF DO EXHIBIT SOME TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL THE SURFACE LOW AND ACTUAL IMPACT APPEARS FAIRLY LOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S TO MIDDLE
30S. AS A RESULT...WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AT
TIMES. CONFIDENCE IN DRIZZLE FORECASTING AT THAT RANGE IS LOW SO
WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN MISSOURI LATE THIS MORNING WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO THE NORTHLAND. AN AREA OF FGEN
FORCING WAS AIDING IN PRODUCING SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND...AND THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON...LIFTING A BIT TO
IFR/MVFR TONIGHT AS THE SNOW STARTS TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST.
SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...INCLUDING KHYR...THEN TURN TO ALL SNOW TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN START TO INCREASE
OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE LOW GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO MICHIGAN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 30 19 21 9 / 100 90 10 0
INL 28 14 18 3 / 50 30 10 0
BRD 29 17 22 10 / 100 50 10 0
HYR 31 22 24 7 / 70 100 30 10
ASX 31 23 25 10 / 80 90 50 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ001-
002.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ003-008-
009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ004.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
MNZ033>038.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1050 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
UPDATED THE PCPN CHANCES AND WEATHER THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY...BLENDING THE LATEST HRRR/RAP12/NAM12 INTO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS NW WISCONSIN
TODAY LOOKS VERY LOW...AND PRIMARILY FOR THE FAR SE FORECAST
AREA. IT WAS HARD TO JUSTIFY MAINTAINING THE ADVISORIES FOR
BURNETT AND WASHBURN COUNTIES BASED ON THE VERY LOW THREAT...SO
CANCELLED THE ADVISORIES FOR THOSE TWO COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
A MIX OF SNOW AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH A SWATH OF 2-5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. A LACK OF ICE
CRYSTALS THROUGH THE COLUMN HAS RESULTED IN FREEZING DRIZZLE
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE...AN ISSUE WHICH WILL
PERSIST INTO THE DAY ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WEAKER THAN USUAL
LARGE-SCALE LIFT IS RESULTING IN A CHALLENGING FORECAST...THE LACK
OF STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING SIGNALS BRINGS INTO QUESTION JUST HOW
INTENSE SNOWFALL WILL BE TODAY. TEMPS REMAIN QUITE MILD TODAY...THEN
A BATCH OF MORE SEASONABLE AIR ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A SOMEWHAT COMPLEX MIX OF WEAK FORCING IS
RESULTING IN A CHALLENGING FORECAST. AT THE SURFACE A SFC
TROUGH/FRONT FROM YESTERDAY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...IT HAS BECOME EAST-WEST ORIENTED OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
THIS MORNING AND WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS A WEAK
WARM FRONT BEFORE COLD AIR RUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A
MID-LEVEL WAVE RESULTING IN IT TAKING A TURN EASTWARD AS A COLD
FRONT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AT UPPER LEVELS A MID-LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN. THESE TWO FEATURES LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE MIDWEST TODAY RESULTING IN A DEEPENING SFC
LOW OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI NORTHEAST TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
MOST OF THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOCUSED
FURTHER SOUTH...BUT AHEAD OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS FROM THE MID-
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AN AREA OF ENHANCED FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP TODAY. WHILE THIS
EVOLUTION HAS BEEN FAIRLY WELL PREDICTED...THERE REMAINS MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN WHERE EXACTLY THE BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL LINE UP
TODAY. HOWEVER...OVERALL NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AS
THE MOST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LAKE MILLE LACS TO THE TWIN PORTS
WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL...BUT AROUND THIS AREA SNOWFALL
TOTALS AND PRECIPITATION TYPE IS A LITTLE BIT LESS CERTAIN.
NORTHEAST MN...TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF LAKE MILLE LACS TO TWIN
PORTS AREA PRECIP WILL FALL AS MAINLY SNOW...WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGE
AS TO HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL DEVELOPS. FOR
NOW CONTINUED WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM AN
EXTREME EASTERN BAND...EVEN MISSING DLH...FROM THE LOCAL DLH
WRF...TO THE NCAR WRF-DART ENSEMBLE WHICH CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT
MAINLY ALL OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WELL INTO THE ARROWHEAD WITH 2 TO
4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL AND A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE HRRR IS
CLOSER TO THIS SOLUTION AND IN FACT VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
FORECASTING TO THE BEST FEW DAYS WITH 2-4 INCHES FROM THE
BRAINERD/LAKE MILLE LACS REGION TO SOUTH OF THE IRON RANGE...SO FEEL
FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN THE EXTENT OF POPS/SNOW. SNOWFALL IS ALREADY
BEGINNING AS OF 3 AM AROUND LAKE MILLE LACS...AND WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THIS MORNING. THE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL WEAK
LARGE-SCALE FORCING DO NOT ANTICIPATE INCREDIBLY INTENSE SNOWFALL
RATES.
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...A MUCH DIFFERENT STORY WITH CONFIDENCE LOWER
ON PRECIPITATION TYPE AND ACCUMULATION INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
WHILE NEAR THE MN BORDER DO EXPECT A BAND OF SNOWFALL TODAY WITH
AMOUNTS APPROACHING 2 TO 4 INCHES...FARTHER EAST WILL BE A DIFFERENT
STORY TODAY. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON TODAY DUE TO A LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE
ALOFT...RESULTING IN A LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS. NOT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN THE MAIN SFC LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DOES THE
MOISTURE MOVE EAST INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN RESULTING IN A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME THE LARGE-SCALE
FORCING...ALREADY GENERALLY WEAK...BECOMES WEAKER RESULTING IN LOWER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...LESS THAN 2 INCHES IN SPOTS. WHILE THIS IS LESS
THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR SNOWFALL...ULTIMATELY DECIDED TO KEEP THE
ADVISORY OUT BECAUSE OF THE MIXED PRECIP POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WITH
PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. BULK OF SNOWFALL WILL FALL IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND AS
THE SFC LOW LIFTS EAST ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WINDS TURN
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY AND COLD AIR RUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LAKE
EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.
FINALLY...LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ARRIVES IN A CLIPPER-LIKE FASHION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH WHICH MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER BATCH OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...THOUGH AS THE COLDER AND DRIER AIR IS
ADVECTED THERE COULD BE SOME LOSS OF ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT RESULTING IN
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX INSTEAD. FOR NOW THIS SEEMS LIKE A FAIRLY LOW-
IMPACT FEATURE COMPARED TO THE INFLUENCES FROM THE MAIN LONGWAVE
TROUGH FEATURE.
TEMPS MILD TODAY THEN FALLING TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGHS
AROUND 30 THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID TEENS
IN NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TONIGHT...WARMER IN THE LOW
20S IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
MID 20S TOMORROW...COLDEST IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.
WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25-30 MPH AT TIMES. THIS COULD
RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE TWIN PORTS AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. ADDED
SOME CONSERVATIVE PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WORDING TO THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AS NORTH
WINDS AND SURFACE RIDGING SETTLES INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE CHANCE OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED...THOUGH...AS WINDS
ALREADY BACK TO THE WEST DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE NIGHT.
THIS SHOULD SHUT OFF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE FOR THE GOGEBIC
RANGE AND THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM
WILL THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE...AND
WE HAVE INCREASED POPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST 1/2 TO 2/3
OF THE CWA. WHILE THERE IS A DISAGREEMENT IN TERMS OF THE OVERALL
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS SHORTWAVE...THE MAIN FORCING IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN. DEFINITELY CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE FROM
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION INTO THE ARROWHEAD. NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. CHANCES WILL BE TEMPERED
SOMEWHAT BY THE RELATIVELY MILD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. THE NEARLY
MERIDIONAL FLOW ON THURSDAY WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW
BY THE WEEKEND. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION. THE
GFS AND ECMWF DO EXHIBIT SOME TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL THE SURFACE LOW AND ACTUAL IMPACT APPEARS FAIRLY LOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S TO MIDDLE
30S. AS A RESULT...WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AT
TIMES. CONFIDENCE IN DRIZZLE FORECASTING AT THAT RANGE IS LOW SO
WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 606 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR AND VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
TAF SITES THIS MORNING...AS A COMBINATION OF FOG...FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND SNOW GRADUALLY BECOME ALL SNOW FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...AS THE TAF SITES BECOME MAINLY MVFR DURING
THE LATTER PORTION OF THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
FOR MUCH OF TODAY...BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 30 19 21 9 / 100 90 10 0
INL 28 14 18 3 / 50 30 10 0
BRD 29 17 22 10 / 100 50 10 0
HYR 31 22 24 7 / 70 100 30 10
ASX 31 23 25 10 / 80 90 50 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ001-
002.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ003-008-
009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ004.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
MNZ033>038.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
613 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
A MIX OF SNOW AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH A SWATH OF 2-5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. A LACK OF ICE
CRYSTALS THROUGH THE COLUMN HAS RESULTED IN FREEZING DRIZZLE
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE...AN ISSUE WHICH WILL
PERSIST INTO THE DAY ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WEAKER THAN USUAL
LARGE-SCALE LIFT IS RESULTING IN A CHALLENGING FORECAST...THE LACK
OF STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING SIGNALS BRINGS INTO QUESTION JUST HOW
INTENSE SNOWFALL WILL BE TODAY. TEMPS REMAIN QUITE MILD TODAY...THEN
A BATCH OF MORE SEASONABLE AIR ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A SOMEWHAT COMPLEX MIX OF WEAK FORCING IS
RESULTING IN A CHALLENGING FORECAST. AT THE SURFACE A SFC
TROUGH/FRONT FROM YESTERDAY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...IT HAS BECOME EAST-WEST ORIENTED OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
THIS MORNING AND WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS A WEAK
WARM FRONT BEFORE COLD AIR RUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A
MID-LEVEL WAVE RESULTING IN IT TAKING A TURN EASTWARD AS A COLD
FRONT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AT UPPER LEVELS A MID-LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN. THESE TWO FEATURES LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE MIDWEST TODAY RESULTING IN A DEEPENING SFC
LOW OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI NORTHEAST TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
MOST OF THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOCUSED
FURTHER SOUTH...BUT AHEAD OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS FROM THE MID-
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AN AREA OF ENHANCED FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP TODAY. WHILE THIS
EVOLUTION HAS BEEN FAIRLY WELL PREDICTED...THERE REMAINS MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN WHERE EXACTLY THE BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL LINE UP
TODAY. HOWEVER...OVERALL NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AS
THE MOST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LAKE MILLE LACS TO THE TWIN PORTS
WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL...BUT AROUND THIS AREA SNOWFALL
TOTALS AND PRECIPITATION TYPE IS A LITTLE BIT LESS CERTAIN.
NORTHEAST MN...TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF LAKE MILLE LACS TO TWIN
PORTS AREA PRECIP WILL FALL AS MAINLY SNOW...WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGE
AS TO HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL DEVELOPS. FOR
NOW CONTINUED WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM AN
EXTREME EASTERN BAND...EVEN MISSING DLH...FROM THE LOCAL DLH
WRF...TO THE NCAR WRF-DART ENSEMBLE WHICH CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT
MAINLY ALL OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WELL INTO THE ARROWHEAD WITH 2 TO
4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL AND A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE HRRR IS
CLOSER TO THIS SOLUTION AND IN FACT VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
FORECASTING TO THE BEST FEW DAYS WITH 2-4 INCHES FROM THE
BRAINERD/LAKE MILLE LACS REGION TO SOUTH OF THE IRON RANGE...SO FEEL
FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN THE EXTENT OF POPS/SNOW. SNOWFALL IS ALREADY
BEGINNING AS OF 3 AM AROUND LAKE MILLE LACS...AND WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THIS MORNING. THE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL WEAK
LARGE-SCALE FORCING DO NOT ANTICIPATE INCREDIBLY INTENSE SNOWFALL
RATES.
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...A MUCH DIFFERENT STORY WITH CONFIDENCE LOWER
ON PRECIPITATION TYPE AND ACCUMULATION INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
WHILE NEAR THE MN BORDER DO EXPECT A BAND OF SNOWFALL TODAY WITH
AMOUNTS APPROACHING 2 TO 4 INCHES...FARTHER EAST WILL BE A DIFFERENT
STORY TODAY. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON TODAY DUE TO A LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE
ALOFT...RESULTING IN A LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS. NOT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN THE MAIN SFC LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DOES THE
MOISTURE MOVE EAST INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN RESULTING IN A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME THE LARGE-SCALE
FORCING...ALREADY GENERALLY WEAK...BECOMES WEAKER RESULTING IN LOWER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...LESS THAN 2 INCHES IN SPOTS. WHILE THIS IS LESS
THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR SNOWFALL...ULTIMATELY DECIDED TO KEEP THE
ADVISORY OUT BECAUSE OF THE MIXED PRECIP POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WITH
PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. BULK OF SNOWFALL WILL FALL IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND AS
THE SFC LOW LIFTS EAST ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WINDS TURN
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY AND COLD AIR RUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LAKE
EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.
FINALLY...LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ARRIVES IN A CLIPPER-LIKE FASHION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH WHICH MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER BATCH OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...THOUGH AS THE COLDER AND DRIER AIR IS
ADVECTED THERE COULD BE SOME LOSS OF ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT RESULTING IN
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX INSTEAD. FOR NOW THIS SEEMS LIKE A FAIRLY LOW-
IMPACT FEATURE COMPARED TO THE INFLUENCES FROM THE MAIN LONGWAVE
TROUGH FEATURE.
TEMPS MILD TODAY THEN FALLING TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGHS
AROUND 30 THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID TEENS
IN NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TONIGHT...WARMER IN THE LOW
20S IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
MID 20S TOMORROW...COLDEST IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.
WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25-30 MPH AT TIMES. THIS COULD
RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE TWIN PORTS AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. ADDED
SOME CONSERVATIVE PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WORDING TO THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AS NORTH
WINDS AND SURFACE RIDGING SETTLES INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE CHANCE OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED...THOUGH...AS WINDS
ALREADY BACK TO THE WEST DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE NIGHT.
THIS SHOULD SHUT OFF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE FOR THE GOGEBIC
RANGE AND THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM
WILL THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE...AND
WE HAVE INCREASED POPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST 1/2 TO 2/3
OF THE CWA. WHILE THERE IS A DISAGREEMENT IN TERMS OF THE OVERALL
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS SHORTWAVE...THE MAIN FORCING IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN. DEFINITELY CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE FROM
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION INTO THE ARROWHEAD. NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. CHANCES WILL BE TEMPERED
SOMEWHAT BY THE RELATIVELY MILD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. THE NEARLY
MERIDIONAL FLOW ON THURSDAY WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW
BY THE WEEKEND. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION. THE
GFS AND ECMWF DO EXHIBIT SOME TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL THE SURFACE LOW AND ACTUAL IMPACT APPEARS FAIRLY LOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S TO MIDDLE
30S. AS A RESULT...WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AT
TIMES. CONFIDENCE IN DRIZZLE FORECASTING AT THAT RANGE IS LOW SO
WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 606 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR AND VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
TAF SITES THIS MORNING...AS A COMBINATION OF FOG...FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND SNOW GRADUALLY BECOME ALL SNOW FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...AS THE TAF SITES BECOME MAINLY MVFR DURING
THE LATTER PORTION OF THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
FOR MUCH OF TODAY...BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 30 19 21 9 / 100 90 10 0
INL 28 14 18 3 / 60 40 10 0
BRD 29 17 22 10 / 100 70 10 0
HYR 31 22 24 7 / 80 100 30 10
ASX 31 23 25 10 / 80 100 50 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ001.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
WIZ002-003-006>009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
WIZ004.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
MNZ033>038.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
316 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
A MIX OF SNOW AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH A SWATH OF 2-5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. A LACK OF ICE
CRYSTALS THROUGH THE COLUMN HAS RESULTED IN FREEZING DRIZZLE
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE...AN ISSUE WHICH WILL
PERSIST INTO THE DAY ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WEAKER THAN USUAL
LARGE-SCALE LIFT IS RESULTING IN A CHALLENGING FORECAST...THE LACK
OF STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING SIGNALS BRINGS INTO QUESTION JUST HOW
INTENSE SNOWFALL WILL BE TODAY. TEMPS REMAIN QUITE MILD TODAY...THEN
A BATCH OF MORE SEASONABLE AIR ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A SOMEWHAT COMPLEX MIX OF WEAK FORCING IS
RESULTING IN A CHALLENGING FORECAST. AT THE SURFACE A SFC
TROUGH/FRONT FROM YESTERDAY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...IT HAS BECOME EAST-WEST ORIENTED OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
THIS MORNING AND WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS A WEAK
WARM FRONT BEFORE COLD AIR RUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A
MID-LEVEL WAVE RESULTING IN IT TAKING A TURN EASTWARD AS A COLD
FRONT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AT UPPER LEVELS A MID-LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN. THESE TWO FEATURES LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE MIDWEST TODAY RESULTING IN A DEEPENING SFC
LOW OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI NORTHEAST TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
MOST OF THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOCUSED
FURTHER SOUTH...BUT AHEAD OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS FROM THE MID-
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AN AREA OF ENHANCED FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP TODAY. WHILE THIS
EVOLUTION HAS BEEN FAIRLY WELL PREDICTED...THERE REMAINS MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN WHERE EXACTLY THE BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL LINE UP
TODAY. HOWEVER...OVERALL NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AS
THE MOST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LAKE MILLE LACS TO THE TWIN PORTS
WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL...BUT AROUND THIS AREA SNOWFALL
TOTALS AND PRECIPITATION TYPE IS A LITTLE BIT LESS CERTAIN.
NORTHEAST MN...TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF LAKE MILLE LACS TO TWIN
PORTS AREA PRECIP WILL FALL AS MAINLY SNOW...WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGE
AS TO HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL DEVELOPS. FOR
NOW CONTINUED WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM AN
EXTREME EASTERN BAND...EVEN MISSING DLH...FROM THE LOCAL DLH
WRF...TO THE NCAR WRF-DART ENSEMBLE WHICH CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT
MAINLY ALL OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WELL INTO THE ARROWHEAD WITH 2 TO
4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL AND A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE HRRR IS
CLOSER TO THIS SOLUTION AND IN FACT VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
FORECASTING TO THE BEST FEW DAYS WITH 2-4 INCHES FROM THE
BRAINERD/LAKE MILLE LACS REGION TO SOUTH OF THE IRON RANGE...SO FEEL
FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN THE EXTENT OF POPS/SNOW. SNOWFALL IS ALREADY
BEGINNING AS OF 3 AM AROUND LAKE MILLE LACS...AND WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THIS MORNING. THE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL WEAK
LARGE-SCALE FORCING DO NOT ANTICIPATE INCREDIBLY INTENSE SNOWFALL
RATES.
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...A MUCH DIFFERENT STORY WITH CONFIDENCE LOWER
ON PRECIPITATION TYPE AND ACCUMULATION INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
WHILE NEAR THE MN BORDER DO EXPECT A BAND OF SNOWFALL TODAY WITH
AMOUNTS APPROACHING 2 TO 4 INCHES...FARTHER EAST WILL BE A DIFFERENT
STORY TODAY. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON TODAY DUE TO A LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE
ALOFT...RESULTING IN A LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS. NOT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN THE MAIN SFC LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DOES THE
MOISTURE MOVE EAST INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN RESULTING IN A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME THE LARGE-SCALE
FORCING...ALREADY GENERALLY WEAK...BECOMES WEAKER RESULTING IN LOWER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...LESS THAN 2 INCHES IN SPOTS. WHILE THIS IS LESS
THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR SNOWFALL...ULTIMATELY DECIDED TO KEEP THE
ADVISORY OUT BECAUSE OF THE MIXED PRECIP POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WITH
PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. BULK OF SNOWFALL WILL FALL IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND AS
THE SFC LOW LIFTS EAST ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WINDS TURN
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY AND COLD AIR RUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LAKE
EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.
FINALLY...LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ARRIVES IN A CLIPPER-LIKE FASHION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH WHICH MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER BATCH OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...THOUGH AS THE COLDER AND DRIER AIR IS
ADVECTED THERE COULD BE SOME LOSS OF ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT RESULTING IN
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX INSTEAD. FOR NOW THIS SEEMS LIKE A FAIRLY LOW-
IMPACT FEATURE COMPARED TO THE INFLUENCES FROM THE MAIN LONGWAVE
TROUGH FEATURE.
TEMPS MILD TODAY THEN FALLING TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGHS
AROUND 30 THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID TEENS
IN NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TONIGHT...WARMER IN THE LOW
20S IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
MID 20S TOMORROW...COLDEST IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.
WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25-30 MPH AT TIMES. THIS COULD
RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE TWIN PORTS AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. ADDED
SOME CONSERVATIVE PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WORDING TO THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AS NORTH
WINDS AND SURFACE RIDGING SETTLES INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE CHANCE OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED...THOUGH...AS WINDS
ALREADY BACK TO THE WEST DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE NIGHT.
THIS SHOULD SHUT OFF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE FOR THE GOGEBIC
RANGE AND THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM
WILL THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE...AND
WE HAVE INCREASED POPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST 1/2 TO 2/3
OF THE CWA. WHILE THERE IS A DISAGREEMENT IN TERMS OF THE OVERALL
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS SHORTWAVE...THE MAIN FORCING IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN. DEFINITELY CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE FROM
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION INTO THE ARROWHEAD. NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. CHANCES WILL BE TEMPERED
SOMEWHAT BY THE RELATIVELY MILD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. THE NEARLY
MERIDIONAL FLOW ON THURSDAY WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW
BY THE WEEKEND. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION. THE
GFS AND ECMWF DO EXHIBIT SOME TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL THE SURFACE LOW AND ACTUAL IMPACT APPEARS FAIRLY LOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S TO MIDDLE
30S. AS A RESULT...WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AT
TIMES. CONFIDENCE IN DRIZZLE FORECASTING AT THAT RANGE IS LOW SO
WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
THE AREA IS WITHIN A VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WITH WEAK FLOW
AND CONVERGENCE...WITH IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WITH FOG AND PATCHY
-SN/FZDZ. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LOWER TO IFR OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...EVEN TO LIFR TOWARDS MORNING. A STORM SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO SPREAD SNOW TOWARDS THE AREA AFTER 09Z...BRINGING IFR
CONDITIONS IN -SN AND PATCHY FZDZ TO THE TERMINALS FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. SOME SMALL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AFTER 21Z FOR KINL
AND KBRD...THEN AFTER 03Z FOR KDLH AND KHIB...BUT SNOW CONTINUING
UNTIL KHYR THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 30 19 21 9 / 90 90 10 0
INL 28 14 18 3 / 60 40 10 0
BRD 29 17 22 10 / 100 70 10 0
HYR 31 22 24 7 / 80 100 30 10
ASX 31 23 25 10 / 80 100 50 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ001.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
WIZ002-003-006>009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
WIZ004.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
MNZ033>038.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...LE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
245 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
.SHORT TERM: (Through Tuesday)
Issued at 242 PM CST Mon Jan 25 2016
Strong little shortwave with a 34 vortmax on the RAP is currently
moving through eastern Missouri. The center of the associated
surface low looks to be near or right over KFFL (Fairfield IA), and
the cold front will be pushing into our central Missouri counties
shortly. Little if any precip reaching the ground at this time in
our CWFA, and the precip threat should end entirely after FROPA.
There`s still a decent likelihood of some light rain up across our
far northern zones...and a chance there could be some light showers
late this afternoon into the evening until the front moves through.
Should see good cold advection behind the front, but the low is
moving northeast and the wind never really veers beyond about 290-
300 degrees, so this won`t be an Arctic outbreak or anything. Should
see temperatures drop quickly into the 30s behind the
front...bottoming out Tuesday morning in the upper 20s to around 30.
Think there will be plenty of stratus/strato-cu lingering over the
area on Tuesday, and with west-northwest flow continuing I don`t
expect temperatures to make it out of the 30s except over far
southern zones where breaks in the overcast are likely.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday night through Next Monday)
Issued at 242 PM CST Mon Jan 25 2016
As surface ridge builds into the region Tuesday night, upper
level shortwave to slide through. No precipitation expected with
this system, but clouds associated with it will begin to scatter
out towards daybreak Wednesday morning. Otherwise, colder air to
filter in with lows near normal in the upper teens to mid 20s.
Then on Wednesday, surface ridge moves off to our east allowing
southerly winds to return to the region. Highs will be near normal
in the mid 30s to low 40s, then begin a gradual warmup for the rest
of the work week and into the weekend as upper level ridging becomes
more zonal. Will see another system slide through on Thursday, but
it will be moisture starved as well with only an increase in mid and
high clouds. By Saturday, highs will be in the low 50s to low 60s
and lows Saturday night in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
Extended models continue to show system developing over the
panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas beginning Saturday night, though
there are some timing and strength differences among them. Warm
frontal boundary associated with it to lift into southern portions
of forecast area by Sunday with increasing chances of precipitation
Sunday night and Monday. At this time, precipitation to remain in
the form of rain as temperatures stay above normal through the
period.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2016
Low pressure centered over west central Missouri will move rapidly
northeast this afternoon and evening and should be up near Chicago
by 04Z. MVFR ceilings should overspread the area over the next 2
to 3 hours ahead of the cold front associated with this low. Some
IFR ceilings also expected...primarily along the track of the low
over northeast Missouri and west central Illinois. Additionally,
expect gusty south wind to between 20-30kts ahead of the front. Widely
scattered showers and possibly some drizzle is possible as well,
with greater chances for precipitation along the track of the low.
Chances for precipitation will end with the passage of the cold
front and the wind will swing around sharply to the west-
northwest as the front passes...and wind gusts will continue up to
30kts. Think MVFR ceilings will continue to prevail after the
front passes and even into Tuesday.
Specifics for KSTL:
MVFR ceilings are lurking just south/southwest of the
terminal...and I expect the ceiling will drop this afternoon ahead
of the cold front. Not sure exactly when, or how low to go though.
Short range guidance...is frankly no help...and higher clouds are
obscuring the lower clouds so satellite pictures are no help
either. So timing in the terminal forecast is low confidence. Once
the ceiling goes down, it should stay down...possibly dropping
below 2000 FT before the front comes through. Gusty south flow
will become west-southwesterly behind the front with gusts
potentially as high as 30kts. This will cause crosswind issues on
the main runways at Lambert until the wind calms down a bit and
becomes more northwesterly early Tuesday morning. Think MVFR
ceilings will prevail through the day Tuesday.
Carney
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 30 38 25 38 / 30 5 5 0
Quincy 27 33 20 34 / 30 5 0 0
Columbia 28 35 21 39 / 10 5 5 0
Jefferson City 30 37 21 39 / 10 5 5 0
Salem 32 37 24 35 / 30 5 5 0
Farmington 30 39 22 38 / 30 5 5 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1054 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
.UPDATE:
Issued at 931 PM CST Sun Jan 24 2016
Made a few changes to the previous forecast, namely to remove low
pops in central MO very late tonight and slow down the eastward
progression of pops from the MS River eastward into IL during the
first part of Monday morning. Evening UA data shows a very
prominent low level warm advection regime across the region in
response to well above average lower trop temps and impressive
30-50 kt southwesterly flow. Despite this regime, an examination
of soundings across the area and well upstream into the advection
source region shows dry low levels with moisture confined to 500
mb and higher. Some gradual top down moistening is expected
overnight but nothing dramatic, and this suggests the precipitation
will be slower to develop. In fact the latest HRRR runs and
available deterministic models show it may be close to midday
before anything more than very spotty precipitation develops. The
moisture stratification also is more typical of rain showers.
Glass
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Monday)
Issued at 327 PM CST Sun Jan 24 2016
Shortwave trof moving off the eastern Rockies is causing
cyclogenesis over southeast Colorado. The strengthening low is
what`s bringing us our January thaw today as southerly flow draws
warm air up into the area. Southerly flow will persist tonight, and
I`ve leaned heavily toward warmest guidance numbers to account for
this. Sheltered spots may decouple enough to drop to freezing,
especially where any significant snow cover remains, but the vast
majority of the area should stay in the mid 30s or even warmer.
Short range guidance is in pretty good agreement in holding any
precip from this storm until 12Z or after. The NAM does have some
very light QPF overnight, but it tends to overforecast precipitation
in warm advection situations especially when there`s a lot of
moisture advection like there will be tonight. Forecast soundings
show a fairly shallow layer of moisture...only 5000 FT deep or so.
This isn`t a great setup for a lot of precip, so I`ve lowered PoPs
to low chance/slight chance across most of the area. Maintaining
likely PoPs over northern sections which will be closer to the track
of the mid and upper level dynamics which should increase lift. Cold
front will sweep through the western 1/2 of the CWFA from about
Sprngfield Illinois through the STL Metro and down the I-44 corridor
by 00Z Tuesday. Temperatures ahead of the front will remain
mild...tho not as warm as today due to cloud cover and light precip.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Monday Night through Next Sunday)
Issued at 327 PM CST Sun Jan 24 2016
(Monday night through Wednesday)
Focus thru this period continues to be precip chances and p-type.
Prev forecast continues to be on track and with good mdl agreement,
made only minor changes. Similar to yesterday, it continues to
appear that precip will end before a complete change over to SN
occurs. However, have some low PoPs with SN mentioned as it remains
a possibility.
Also similar to yesterday, have continued a trend twd the warmer
guidance. With most, if not all, snow cover gone by Tues, expect a
warmer trend to continue.
(Thursday through Sunday)
Amplified upper air pattern is expected to become more zonal thru
the period. Have continued the warm forecast thru the extd, trending
twd the warmest guidance.
Latest guidance suggests precip chances increase sometime Sun or
more likely beyond. For now, it appears to be RA at the end of this
forecast period. However, looking beyond, appears to be a system
that will need some monitoring in upcoming shifts.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1035 PM CST Sun Jan 24 2016
Surface low over southwest KS will move northeastward through
northwest MO and southeast IA on Monday, dragging a cold front
southeastward through our area Monday afternoon and evening. MVFR
cigs will develop and spread into the taf sites Monday morning,
possibly dropping into the IFR catagory especially at UIN late
Monday morning and afternoon. Scattered light showers can also be
expected on Monday as well. Sely surface winds will continue,
veering around to a wly direction Monday evening after fropa.
LLWS conditions will continue late tonight in COU and the St
Louis metro area with a swly low level jet over southwest MO, with
forecast soundings and the LSX VWP depicting south-southwest winds
at 1500-2000 feet in height of 40-45 kts.
Specifics for KSTL: MVFR cigs will advect into STL Monday morning,
possibly dropping into the IFR catagory, at least briefly around
18Z Monday. A few light showers will be possible late Monday
morning and afternoon. Sely surface winds will continue late
tonight, then become stronger and gusty on Monday, eventually
veering around to a wly direction by late Monday evening after
fropa. LLWS conditions will continue late tonight with the LSX
VWP indicating s-swly winds at 2000 feet in height of 40-45 kts.
GKS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 35 48 30 38 / 10 40 10 10
Quincy 34 42 27 33 / 10 70 30 10
Columbia 36 47 26 35 / 10 40 10 5
Jefferson City 37 49 28 36 / 10 40 10 5
Salem 33 45 31 37 / 10 40 40 10
Farmington 34 48 29 39 / 10 40 10 5
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1245 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
INTERESTING FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE JUST SENT AN UPDATE TO
INCREASE SNOWFALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MRNG ANALYSIS INDCD
TROWAL ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOW MOVG
THROUGH WRN/NRN MO EXTNDD FM CTNRL MN SWWD INTO NRN NEB. AS
FRONTOGENESIS ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE TROWAL HAS CONTD TO
WEAKEN...IT HAS INCREASED ON THE SOUTH SIDE IN A ZONE OF VERY WEAK
STATIC STABILITY OVER ERN NEB AHEAD OF THE TROP FOLD. GIVEN THE
WEAK STATIC STABILITY AND STRONG INERTIAL INSTABILITY THIS BAND
HAS BEEN VERY EFFICIENT AS PRODUCING SNOW...SOME HEAVY. THIS BAND
WILL CONT TO PIVOT EWD THROUGH THE AFTN WITH THE GREATEST SNOWFALL
RATES LIKELY TO BE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE BAND WHERE THE
GREATEST INERTIAL INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE LOCATED. WE ARE
LIKELY SEEING SOME 1-2 IN SNOWFALL RATES IN THIS BAND WE COULD END
UP WITH SOME 3+ IN TOTALS. ALREADY HAVE AN ADVISORY GOING...BUT
WILL REWORD TO CONCENTRATE MORE ON SNOW FOR THE AFTN. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVS INTO WRN IA AS STABILITY
INCREASES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 420 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FURTHER INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING WHERE LOCAL DISPATCHERS ARE
REPORTING ROADS ICING FROM WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE AREA OF VERY
LIGHT RETURNS ON THE KOAX RADAR REMAINS IN PLACE FROM ABOUT DAVID
CITY NORTHWARD TO ONAWA IOWA...SHOWING THE TRANSITION TO LOWER
CLOUDS AND GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. DUAL POL
RADAR DATA SHOWS THIS IS NOW PROBABLY A MIXED AREA OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW AS YOU MOVE FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE BAND.
SOUTHEAST OF THIS AREA OF RETURNS...LATEST HIGHRES HOURLY HRRR/RAP
MODELS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LITTLE IF ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF I80 SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR
DEVELOPMENT IF AT ALL THIS MORNING...THUS CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
ON ICING POTENTIAL IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA. RADAR
ALSO SHOWING SOME HIGHER DBZ RETURNS IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
ASSOCIATED WITH A MORE AGITATED CLOUD FIELD. DUAL POL DATA
SUGGESTS THESE RETURNS PROBABLY HAVE MORE SNOW SHOWERY TYPE
ACTIVITY
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY AS SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AT 08Z TO EASTERN IOWA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THE PREVIOUS
CONCERNS ARE STILL VALID...WITH POTENTIAL FREEZING DRIZZLE
DEVELOPING THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND
COLDER AIR CONTINUE FILTER INTO THE REGION.
KOAX OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS SHOWN AN EXPANDING AREA OF
VERY LIGHT RETURNS FROM NEAR COLUMBUS AND DAVID CITY NORTHEAST
TOWARD ONAWA IOWA. CALLS TO COUNTIES UNDERNEATH THE RETURNS HAVE
YIELDED REPORTS OF FREEZING MIST...WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
AND WET PAVEMENT NOTED NEAR DAVID CITY. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE
THE TRANSITION ZONE FROM MVFR CLOUD CEILINGS TO LOWER IFR/LIFR
WHERE THERE IS LIKELY A BETTER CHANCE FOR THE FOG TO GENERATE SOME
RIME ICING. THUS...MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING A COUPLE OF COUNTIES
TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LIGHT ICING.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ALONG I80...THE CLOUD BASES AREA STILL 3000-4000
FEET AND NO DRIZZLE AT ALL WITH JUST LIGHT FOG...SO MAY NOT SEE
THE DRIZZLE UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z WHEN CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO
LOWER. THEN SOUTH OF I80... SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLEAR AND IT WILL
TAKE SEVERAL MORE HOURS FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO ARRIVE. LATEST
HOURLY HIRES HRRR AND RAP MODELS SUGGEST THAT PRECIP ALONG/SOUTH
OF I80 MAY BE LIMITED TO NON EXISTENT UNTIL THE LOWER CLOUDS
DEVELOP...GENERALLY BEYOND 12Z. THUS...THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN THE ADVISORY AREA ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 ARE
VERY LOW...BUT GIVEN THAT THE CURRENT WEATHER ADVISORY IS ALREADY
IN EFFECT...WILL LET IT RIDE FOR NOW WITH THE CAVEAT THAT WE MAY
NEED TO CANCEL THAT LATER THIS MORNING IF THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE/RAIN FAILS TO MATERIALIZE.
ALONG/NORTH OF I80...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT ICING DUE TO THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT COLDER AIR WILL ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE
REGION CHANGING THIS OVER TO SNOW THROUGH TIME AS WELL MITIGATING
THE AMOUNT OF ICING ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE.
SNOW CHANCES DO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
LOW CONTINUES TO PULL FURTHER TO THE EAST...THUS THINKING WE WILL
SEE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA WHERE WE STILL HAVE 1 TO 2 INCHES FORECAST...FROM ONE
HALF TO ONE INCH JUST NORTH OF I80...AND ONE HALF INCH OR LESS
SOUTH OF I80. LINGERING FLURRIES WILL PROBABLY EXIST ALONG/EAST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER YET THIS EVENING.
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COOL ON TUESDAY...THEN
GRADUALLY WARMER ON WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
DRY WEATHER EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS
RISING INTO THE 40S. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER APPEARS AT THE END OF
THE EXTENDED BY SUNDAY WITH A RAIN/SNOW CHANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
ANY REMAINING -FZDZ AT THE TAF SITES WILL BE REPLACED WITH -SN
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL FIRST HAPPEN AT KOFK/KLNK AND THEN AT
KOMA BY 20Z. WE WILL CONT TO SEE A MIX OF MOSTLY IFR OR LOW-END
MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS TRENDING TO MVFR CIGS FOR
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON TUE. WE COULD SEE SOME IFR/LIFR
VISBY THIS AFTN WITH THE SN AT KOMA/KLNK ALONG WITH SOME
ACCUMULATIONS. SN SHOULD MOV OUT OF THE TAFS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER
00Z TUE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
WILL GUSTS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING...AND WINDS BECOMING AOB 12 KT
ON TUE.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ034-
043>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ043-
055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BOUSTEAD
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1229 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MID LEVEL DRY AIR
AND WEAK LIFT IS CAUSING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO FORM IN THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 548 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
STORM REPORTS INDICATED THE TRANSITORY NORTH SOUTH BAND OF SNOW
SOUTH OF THEDFORD HAS CAUSED ROADS TO CROSS THE FREEZING MARK AND
BECOME ICE COVERED WITH SNOW ON TOP. VERY HAZARDOUS. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS THIS AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
THE SNOW FORECAST APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK WITH NEDOR HIGHWAY
CAMS COVERED WITH SNOW AT NENZEL AND VALENTINE. THE RAP SUGGESTS
THE SNOW BAND UNDERWAY WOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST WHILE THE
06Z NAM SHOWS IT STEADY STATE WITH INDICATIONS OF STRENGTHENING
AS IT SWEEPS INTO CUSTER COUNTY THIS MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO USE A BLENDED APPROACH FOR TOTAL
SNOWFALL AROUND 3 INCHES. THE 00Z GFS IS A BIT WETTER TRENDING
TOWARD THE NAM WHICH SHOWS 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF
NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 20. THE MODEL CONSENSUS H700MB TRACK ALONG I-80
TO LEXINGTON AND THEN NORTHEAST TO SIOUX CITY IA TODAY PLACES NRN
NEB IN THE BEST FORCING. THE 06Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT TO 400MB...GOOD AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT.
THE NAM AND RAP ALSO INDICATE LEE CONVERGENCE OFF THE BLACK HILLS
SUPPORTING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY. ALL OF THIS SNOW
SHOULD EXIT THE FCST AREA BY 00Z TONIGHT.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE RAP MODEL WHICH IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE TEENS
TO NEAR 20. THE NAM SHOWS SOME VERY DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE
PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE WRN SANDHILLS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR TONIGHT IN
MOST AREAS. LATER FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO USE THE COLDER MAV
GUIDANCE WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER IN PLACE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. SNOW PACK
ACROSS THE NORTH GOING TO LIMIT WARMING EVEN WITH MORE
SUN...HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S. WESTERN RIDGE EXPANDS AS WE GO
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A WARM UP EXPECTED. SNOW FREE
OR LITTLE SNOW PACK...SW NEB...SHOULD QUICKLY WARM INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 40S...WHILE THE NORTH LINGERS BEHIND. FRIDAY SHOULD BE
THE WARMEST AS WITH MOST AREAS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON EARLY SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED DRY WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AND FORECAST FOLLOWS FOR
NOW. MIXING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT TO BRING YET ANOTHER
SEASONALLY WARM DAY...40S TO AROUND 50. A SECONDARY WAVE ARRIVES
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...USHERING COOLER AIR AND A BETTER CHANCE
FOR PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY THIS EVENING AS THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. UNTIL THEN AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE OCCUR...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIFT IN SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIFT
TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ005>008-024-025.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TAYLOR
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...TAYLOR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1137 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FURTHER INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING WHERE LOCAL DISPATCHERS ARE
REPORTING ROADS ICING FROM WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE AREA OF VERY
LIGHT RETURNS ON THE KOAX RADAR REMAINS IN PLACE FROM ABOUT DAVID
CITY NORTHWARD TO ONAWA IOWA...SHOWING THE TRANSITION TO LOWER
CLOUDS AND GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. DUAL POL
RADAR DATA SHOWS THIS IS NOW PROBABLY A MIXED AREA OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW AS YOU MOVE FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE BAND.
SOUTHEAST OF THIS AREA OF RETURNS...LATEST HIGHRES HOURLY HRRR/RAP
MODELS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LITTLE IF ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF I80 SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR
DEVELOPMENT IF AT ALL THIS MORNING...THUS CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
ON ICING POTENTIAL IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA. RADAR
ALSO SHOWING SOME HIGHER DBZ RETURNS IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
ASSOCIATED WITH A MORE AGITATED CLOUD FIELD. DUAL POL DATA
SUGGESTS THESE RETURNS PROBABLY HAVE MORE SNOW SHOWERY TYPE
ACTIVITY
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY AS SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AT 08Z TO EASTERN IOWA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THE PREVIOUS
CONCERNS ARE STILL VALID...WITH POTENTIAL FREEZING DRIZZLE
DEVELOPING THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND
COLDER AIR CONTINUE FILTER INTO THE REGION.
KOAX OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS SHOWN AN EXPANDING AREA OF
VERY LIGHT RETURNS FROM NEAR COLUMBUS AND DAVID CITY NORTHEAST
TOWARD ONAWA IOWA. CALLS TO COUNTIES UNDERNEATH THE RETURNS HAVE
YIELDED REPORTS OF FREEZING MIST...WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
AND WET PAVEMENT NOTED NEAR DAVID CITY. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE
THE TRANSITION ZONE FROM MVFR CLOUD CEILINGS TO LOWER IFR/LIFR
WHERE THERE IS LIKELY A BETTER CHANCE FOR THE FOG TO GENERATE SOME
RIME ICING. THUS...MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING A COUPLE OF COUNTIES
TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LIGHT ICING.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ALONG I80...THE CLOUD BASES AREA STILL 3000-4000
FEET AND NO DRIZZLE AT ALL WITH JUST LIGHT FOG...SO MAY NOT SEE
THE DRIZZLE UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z WHEN CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO
LOWER. THEN SOUTH OF I80... SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLEAR AND IT WILL
TAKE SEVERAL MORE HOURS FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO ARRIVE. LATEST
HOURLY HIRES HRRR AND RAP MODELS SUGGEST THAT PRECIP ALONG/SOUTH
OF I80 MAY BE LIMITED TO NON EXISTENT UNTIL THE LOWER CLOUDS
DEVELOP...GENERALLY BEYOND 12Z. THUS...THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN THE ADVISORY AREA ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 ARE
VERY LOW...BUT GIVEN THAT THE CURRENT WEATHER ADVISORY IS ALREADY
IN EFFECT...WILL LET IT RIDE FOR NOW WITH THE CAVEAT THAT WE MAY
NEED TO CANCEL THAT LATER THIS MORNING IF THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE/RAIN FAILS TO MATERIALIZE.
ALONG/NORTH OF I80...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT ICING DUE TO THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT COLDER AIR WILL ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE
REGION CHANGING THIS OVER TO SNOW THROUGH TIME AS WELL MITIGATING
THE AMOUNT OF ICING ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE.
SNOW CHANCES DO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
LOW CONTINUES TO PULL FURTHER TO THE EAST...THUS THINKING WE WILL
SEE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA WHERE WE STILL HAVE 1 TO 2 INCHES FORECAST...FROM ONE
HALF TO ONE INCH JUST NORTH OF I80...AND ONE HALF INCH OR LESS
SOUTH OF I80. LINGERING FLURRIES WILL PROBABLY EXIST ALONG/EAST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER YET THIS EVENING.
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COOL ON TUESDAY...THEN
GRADUALLY WARMER ON WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
DRY WEATHER EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS
RISING INTO THE 40S. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER APPEARS AT THE END OF
THE EXTENDED BY SUNDAY WITH A RAIN/SNOW CHANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
ANY REMAINING -FZDZ AT THE TAF SITES WILL BE REPLACED WITH -SN
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL FIRST HAPPEN AT KOFK/KLNK AND THEN AT
KOMA BY 20Z. WE WILL CONT TO SEE A MIX OF MOSTLY IFR OR LOW-END
MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS TRENDING TO MVFR CIGS FOR
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON TUE. WE COULD SEE SOME IFR/LIFR
VISBY THIS AFTN WITH THE SN AT KOMA/KLNK ALONG WITH SOME
ACCUMULATIONS. SN SHOULD MOV OUT OF THE TAFS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER
00Z TUE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
WILL GUSTS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING...AND WINDS BECOMING AOB 12 KT
ON TUE.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ034-
043>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ043-
055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
600 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FURTHER INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING WHERE LOCAL DISPATCHERS ARE
REPORTING ROADS ICING FROM WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE AREA OF VERY
LIGHT RETURNS ON THE KOAX RADAR REMAINS IN PLACE FROM ABOUT DAVID
CITY NORTHWARD TO ONAWA IOWA...SHOWING THE TRANSITION TO LOWER
CLOUDS AND GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. DUAL POL
RADAR DATA SHOWS THIS IS NOW PROBABLY A MIXED AREA OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW AS YOU MOVE FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE BAND.
SOUTHEAST OF THIS AREA OF RETURNS...LATEST HIGHRES HOURLY HRRR/RAP
MODELS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LITTLE IF ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF I80 SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR
DEVELOPMENT IF AT ALL THIS MORNING...THUS CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
ON ICING POTENTIAL IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA. RADAR
ALSO SHOWING SOME HIGHER DBZ RETURNS IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
ASSOCIATED WITH A MORE AGITATED CLOUD FIELD. DUAL POL DATA
SUGGESTS THESE RETURNS PROBABLY HAVE MORE SNOW SHOWERY TYPE
ACTIVITY
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY AS SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AT 08Z TO EASTERN IOWA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THE PREVIOUS
CONCERNS ARE STILL VALID...WITH POTENTIAL FREEZING DRIZZLE
DEVELOPING THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND
COLDER AIR CONTINUE FILTER INTO THE REGION.
KOAX OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS SHOWN AN EXPANDING AREA OF
VERY LIGHT RETURNS FROM NEAR COLUMBUS AND DAVID CITY NORTHEAST
TOWARD ONAWA IOWA. CALLS TO COUNTIES UNDERNEATH THE RETURNS HAVE
YIELDED REPORTS OF FREEZING MIST...WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
AND WET PAVEMENT NOTED NEAR DAVID CITY. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE
THE TRANSITION ZONE FROM MVFR CLOUD CEILINGS TO LOWER IFR/LIFR
WHERE THERE IS LIKELY A BETTER CHANCE FOR THE FOG TO GENERATE SOME
RIME ICING. THUS...MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING A COUPLE OF COUNTIES
TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LIGHT ICING.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ALONG I80...THE CLOUD BASES AREA STILL 3000-4000
FEET AND NO DRIZZLE AT ALL WITH JUST LIGHT FOG...SO MAY NOT SEE
THE DRIZZLE UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z WHEN CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO
LOWER. THEN SOUTH OF I80... SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLEAR AND IT WILL
TAKE SEVERAL MORE HOURS FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO ARRIVE. LATEST
HOURLY HIRES HRRR AND RAP MODELS SUGGEST THAT PRECIP ALONG/SOUTH
OF I80 MAY BE LIMITED TO NON EXISTENT UNTIL THE LOWER CLOUDS
DEVELOP...GENERALLY BEYOND 12Z. THUS...THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN THE ADVISORY AREA ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 ARE
VERY LOW...BUT GIVEN THAT THE CURRENT WEATHER ADVISORY IS ALREADY
IN EFFECT...WILL LET IT RIDE FOR NOW WITH THE CAVEAT THAT WE MAY
NEED TO CANCEL THAT LATER THIS MORNING IF THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE/RAIN FAILS TO MATERIALIZE.
ALONG/NORTH OF I80...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT ICING DUE TO THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT COLDER AIR WILL ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE
REGION CHANGING THIS OVER TO SNOW THROUGH TIME AS WELL MITIGATING
THE AMOUNT OF ICING ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE.
SNOW CHANCES DO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
LOW CONTINUES TO PULL FURTHER TO THE EAST...THUS THINKING WE WILL
SEE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA WHERE WE STILL HAVE 1 TO 2 INCHES FORECAST...FROM ONE
HALF TO ONE INCH JUST NORTH OF I80...AND ONE HALF INCH OR LESS
SOUTH OF I80. LINGERING FLURRIES WILL PROBABLY EXIST ALONG/EAST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER YET THIS EVENING.
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COOL ON TUESDAY...THEN
GRADUALLY WARMER ON WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
DRY WEATHER EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS
RISING INTO THE 40S. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER APPEARS AT THE END OF
THE EXTENDED BY SUNDAY WITH A RAIN/SNOW CHANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
VARIABLE CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KOFK
AND KFET WITH FZRA/FZDZ GRADUALLY PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO
KOMA/KLNK AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE
OVER TO ALL SNOW AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS...BETWEEN 14 AND 16Z AT
KOFK AND 16Z TO 19Z AT KOMA AND KLNK. NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP 15
TO 30 MPH AS WELL. THE SNOW MOSTLY ENDS BY LATE AFTERNOON AT KOFK
AND KLNK AND MAY HOLD ON FOR AN HOUR OR SO AT KOMA. MVFR CIGS
SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS DECREASE TO 7 TO 12KTS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ034-
044-045-051>053-066>068-078-088>093.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
NEZ015>018-030>033-042-043-050-065.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ043-
055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
551 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
STORM REPORTS INDICATED THE TRANSITORY NORTH SOUTH BAND OF SNOW
SOUTH OF THEDFORD HAS CAUSED ROADS TO CROSS THE FREEZING MARK AND
BECOME ICE COVERED WITH SNOW ON TOP. VERY HAZARDOUS. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS THIS AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
THE SNOW FORECAST APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK WITH NEDOR HIGHWAY
CAMS COVERED WITH SNOW AT NENZEL AND VALENTINE. THE RAP SUGGESTS
THE SNOW BAND UNDERWAY WOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST WHILE THE
06Z NAM SHOWS IT STEADY STATE WITH INDICATIONS OF STRENGTHENING
AS IT SWEEPS INTO CUSTER COUNTY THIS MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO USE A BLENDED APPROACH FOR TOTAL
SNOWFALL AROUND 3 INCHES. THE 00Z GFS IS A BIT WETTER TRENDING
TOWARD THE NAM WHICH SHOWS 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF
NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 20. THE MODEL CONSENSUS H700MB TRACK ALONG I-80
TO LEXINGTON AND THEN NORTHEAST TO SIOUX CITY IA TODAY PLACES NRN
NEB IN THE BEST FORCING. THE 06Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT TO 400MB...GOOD AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT.
THE NAM AND RAP ALSO INDICATE LEE CONVERGENCE OFF THE BLACK HILLS
SUPPORTING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY. ALL OF THIS SNOW
SHOULD EXIT THE FCST AREA BY 00Z TONIGHT.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE RAP MODEL WHICH IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE TEENS
TO NEAR 20. THE NAM SHOWS SOME VERY DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE
PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE WRN SANDHILLS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR TONIGHT IN
MOST AREAS. LATER FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO USE THE COLDER MAV
GUIDANCE WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER IN PLACE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. SNOW PACK
ACROSS THE NORTH GOING TO LIMIT WARMING EVEN WITH MORE
SUN...HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S. WESTERN RIDGE EXPANDS AS WE GO
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A WARM UP EXPECTED. SNOW FREE
OR LITTLE SNOW PACK...SW NEB...SHOULD QUICKLY WARM INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 40S...WHILE THE NORTH LINGERS BEHIND. FRIDAY SHOULD BE
THE WARMEST AS WITH MOST AREAS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON EARLY SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED DRY WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AND FORECAST FOLLOWS FOR
NOW. MIXING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT TO BRING YET ANOTHER
SEASONALLY WARM DAY...40S TO AROUND 50. A SECONDARY WAVE ARRIVES
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...USHERING COOLER AIR AND A BETTER CHANCE
FOR PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
MVFR/IFR IN SNOW AND LOW CIGS CONTINUES THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR/MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED AROUND 21Z
USING THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND SREF ENSEMBLE MODEL. VFR IS
GENERALLY SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.
MVFR CIGS COULD CONTINUE UNTIL 09Z TONIGHT EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR SWEEPING SOUTH THROUGH THIS AREA. VFR IS
EXPECTED WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 TONIGHT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ004>008-023>025-094.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ036-037-059.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
522 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
THE SNOW FORECAST APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK WITH NEDOR HIGHWAY
CAMS COVERED WITH SNOW AT NENZEL AND VALENTINE. THE RAP SUGGESTS
THE SNOW BAND UNDERWAY WOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST WHILE THE
06Z NAM SHOWS IT STEADY STATE WITH INDICATIONS OF STRENGTHENING
AS IT SWEEPS INTO CUSTER COUNTY THIS MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO USE A BLENDED APPROACH FOR TOTAL
SNOWFALL AROUND 3 INCHES. THE 00Z GFS IS A BIT WETTER TRENDING
TOWARD THE NAM WHICH SHOWS 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF
NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 20. THE MODEL CONSENSUS H700MB TRACK ALONG I-80
TO LEXINGTON AND THEN NORTHEAST TO SIOUX CITY IA TODAY PLACES NRN
NEB IN THE BEST FORCING. THE 06Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT TO 400MB...GOOD AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT.
THE NAM AND RAP ALSO INDICATE LEE CONVERGENCE OFF THE BLACK HILLS
SUPPORTING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY. ALL OF THIS SNOW
SHOULD EXIT THE FCST AREA BY 00Z TONIGHT.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE RAP MODEL WHICH IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE TEENS
TO NEAR 20. THE NAM SHOWS SOME VERY DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE
PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE WRN SANDHILLS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR TONIGHT IN
MOST AREAS. LATER FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO USE THE COLDER MAV
GUIDANCE WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER IN PLACE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. SNOW PACK
ACROSS THE NORTH GOING TO LIMIT WARMING EVEN WITH MORE
SUN...HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S. WESTERN RIDGE EXPANDS AS WE GO
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A WARM UP EXPECTED. SNOW FREE
OR LITTLE SNOW PACK...SW NEB...SHOULD QUICKLY WARM INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 40S...WHILE THE NORTH LINGERS BEHIND. FRIDAY SHOULD BE
THE WARMEST AS WITH MOST AREAS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON EARLY SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED DRY WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AND FORECAST FOLLOWS FOR
NOW. MIXING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT TO BRING YET ANOTHER
SEASONALLY WARM DAY...40S TO AROUND 50. A SECONDARY WAVE ARRIVES
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...USHERING COOLER AIR AND A BETTER CHANCE
FOR PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
MVFR/IFR IN SNOW AND LOW CIGS CONTINUES THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR/MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED AROUND 21Z
USING THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND SREF ENSEMBLE MODEL. VFR IS
GENERALLY SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.
MVFR CIGS COULD CONTINUE UNTIL 09Z TONIGHT EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR SWEEPING SOUTH THROUGH THIS AREA. VFR IS
EXPECTED WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 TONIGHT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ004>008-023>025-094.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
428 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FURTHER INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING WHERE LOCAL DISPATCHERS ARE
REPORTING ROADS ICING FROM WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE AREA OF VERY
LIGHT RETURNS ON THE KOAX RADAR REMAINS IN PLACE FROM ABOUT DAVID
CITY NORTHWARD TO ONAWA IOWA...SHOWING THE TRANSITION TO LOWER
CLOUDS AND GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. DUAL POL
RADAR DATA SHOWS THIS IS NOW PROBABLY A MIXED AREA OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW AS YOU MOVE FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE BAND.
SOUTHEAST OF THIS AREA OF RETURNS...LATEST HIGHRES HOURLY HRRR/RAP
MODELS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LITTLE IF ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF I80 SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR
DEVELOPMENT IF AT ALL THIS MORNING...THUS CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
ON ICING POTENTIAL IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA. RADAR
ALSO SHOWING SOME HIGHER DBZ RETURNS IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
ASSOCIATED WITH A MORE AGITATED CLOUD FIELD. DUAL POL DATA
SUGGESTS THESE RETURNS PROBABLY HAVE MORE SNOW SHOWERY TYPE
ACTIVITY
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY AS SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AT 08Z TO EASTERN IOWA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THE PREVIOUS
CONCERNS ARE STILL VALID...WITH POTENTIAL FREEZING DRIZZLE
DEVELOPING THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND
COLDER AIR CONTINUE FILTER INTO THE REGION.
KOAX OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS SHOWN AN EXPANDING AREA OF
VERY LIGHT RETURNS FROM NEAR COLUMBUS AND DAVID CITY NORTHEAST
TOWARD ONAWA IOWA. CALLS TO COUNTIES UNDERNEATH THE RETURNS HAVE
YIELDED REPORTS OF FREEZING MIST...WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
AND WET PAVEMENT NOTED NEAR DAVID CITY. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE
THE TRANSITION ZONE FROM MVFR CLOUD CEILINGS TO LOWER IFR/LIFR
WHERE THERE IS LIKELY A BETTER CHANCE FOR THE FOG TO GENERATE SOME
RIME ICING. THUS...MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING A COUPLE OF COUNTIES
TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LIGHT ICING.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ALONG I80...THE CLOUD BASES AREA STILL 3000-4000
FEET AND NO DRIZZLE AT ALL WITH JUST LIGHT FOG...SO MAY NOT SEE
THE DRIZZLE UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z WHEN CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO
LOWER. THEN SOUTH OF I80... SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLEAR AND IT WILL
TAKE SEVERAL MORE HOURS FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO ARRIVE. LATEST
HOURLY HIRES HRRR AND RAP MODELS SUGGEST THAT PRECIP ALONG/SOUTH
OF I80 MAY BE LIMITED TO NON EXISTENT UNTIL THE LOWER CLOUDS
DEVELOP...GENERALLY BEYOND 12Z. THUS...THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN THE ADVISORY AREA ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 ARE
VERY LOW...BUT GIVEN THAT THE CURRENT WEATHER ADVISORY IS ALREADY
IN EFFECT...WILL LET IT RIDE FOR NOW WITH THE CAVEAT THAT WE MAY
NEED TO CANCEL THAT LATER THIS MORNING IF THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE/RAIN FAILS TO MATERIALIZE.
ALONG/NORTH OF I80...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT ICING DUE TO THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT COLDER AIR WILL ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE
REGION CHANGING THIS OVER TO SNOW THROUGH TIME AS WELL MITIGATING
THE AMOUNT OF ICING ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE.
SNOW CHANCES DO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
LOW CONTINUES TO PULL FURTHER TO THE EAST...THUS THINKING WE WILL
SEE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA WHERE WE STILL HAVE 1 TO 2 INCHES FORECAST...FROM ONE
HALF TO ONE INCH JUST NORTH OF I80...AND ONE HALF INCH OR LESS
SOUTH OF I80. LINGERING FLURRIES WILL PROBABLY EXIST ALONG/EAST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER YET THIS EVENING.
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COOL ON TUESDAY...THEN
GRADUALLY WARMER ON WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
DRY WEATHER EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS
RISING INTO THE 40S. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER APPEARS AT THE END OF
THE EXTENDED BY SUNDAY WITH A RAIN/SNOW CHANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
TRICKY FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES. CEILINGS WILL FALL TO IFR RANGE...AND
VISIBILITY ALSO WILL FALL TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR RANGE. STILL
EXPECT PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT HAVE BUMPED TIMING BACK A
FEW HOURS. HAVE THEN SPED UP CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW AND ELIMINATED
MENTION OF SLEET. CONTINUE TO THINK ANY ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE
VERY LIGHT...WITH UP TO 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW AT KOFK AND UP TO AN
INCH AT KOMA/KLNK. SNOW SHOULD TAPER AROUND 23-01Z...BUT HAVE HELD
ONTO MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF CYCLE. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ034-
044-045-051>053-066>068-078-088>093.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
NEZ015>018-030>033-042-043-050-065.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ043-
055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MAYES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
350 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
THE SNOW FORECAST APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK WITH NEDOR HIGHWAY
CAMS COVERED WITH SNOW AT NENZEL AND VALENTINE. THE RAP SUGGESTS
THE SNOW BAND UNDERWAY WOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST WHILE THE
06Z NAM SHOWS IT STEADY STATE WITH INDICATIONS OF STRENGTHENING
AS IT SWEEPS INTO CUSTER COUNTY THIS MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO USE A BLENDED APPROACH FOR TOTAL
SNOWFALL AROUND 3 INCHES. THE 00Z GFS IS A BIT WETTER TRENDING
TOWARD THE NAM WHICH SHOWS 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF
NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 20. THE MODEL CONSENSUS H700MB TRACK ALONG I-80
TO LEXINGTON AND THEN NORTHEAST TO SIOUX CITY IA TODAY PLACES NRN
NEB IN THE BEST FORCING. THE 06Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT TO 400MB...GOOD AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT.
THE NAM AND RAP ALSO INDICATE LEE CONVERGENCE OFF THE BLACK HILLS
SUPPORTING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY. ALL OF THIS SNOW
SHOULD EXIT THE FCST AREA BY 00Z TONIGHT.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE RAP MODEL WHICH IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE TEENS
TO NEAR 20. THE NAM SHOWS SOME VERY DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE
PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE WRN SANDHILLS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR TONIGHT IN
MOST AREAS. LATER FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO USE THE COLDER MAV
GUIDANCE WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER IN PLACE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. SNOW PACK
ACROSS THE NORTH GOING TO LIMIT WARMING EVEN WITH MORE
SUN...HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S. WESTERN RIDGE EXPANDS AS WE GO
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A WARM UP EXPECTED. SNOW FREE
OR LITTLE SNOW PACK...SW NEB...SHOULD QUICKLY WARM INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 40S...WHILE THE NORTH LINGERS BEHIND. FRIDAY SHOULD BE
THE WARMEST AS WITH MOST AREAS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON EARLY SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED DRY WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AND FORECAST FOLLOWS FOR
NOW. MIXING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT TO BRING YET ANOTHER
SEASONALLY WARM DAY...40S TO AROUND 50. A SECONDARY WAVE ARRIVES
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...USHERING COOLER AIR AND A BETTER CHANCE
FOR PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA IS LIKELY TO SPREAD
INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 08Z. SNOW INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH VISIBILITY
RESTRICTED TO LESS THAN 3SM AND POSSIBLY LESS THAN 1SM. WITH
CEILINGS IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA ALREADY 500 FEET AGL OR LOWER...THE
VISIBILITY IS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE THE CATEGORY. SOME
SITES...SUCH AS VTN AND ANW...ARE ALREADY BELOW 200 FEET. WITH
LOW LEVEL WIND FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST...IT APPEARS THAT THE
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THAT LOW FOR AT LEAST THREE OR FOUR HOURS.
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 800 FEET ARE
LIKELY BY 09Z. THE PROBABILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS DECREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY BUT IT IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ004>008-023>025-094.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
241 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY AS SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AT 08Z TO EASTERN IOWA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THE PREVIOUS
CONCERNS ARE STILL VALID...WITH POTENTIAL FREEZING DRIZZLE
DEVELOPING THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND
COLDER AIR CONTINUE FILTER INTO THE REGION.
KOAX OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS SHOWN AN EXPANDING AREA OF
VERY LIGHT RETURNS FROM NEAR COLUMBUS AND DAVID CITY NORTHEAST
TOWARD ONAWA IOWA. CALLS TO COUNTIES UNDERNEATH THE RETURNS HAVE
YIELDED REPORTS OF FREEZING MIST...WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
AND WET PAVEMENT NOTED NEAR DAVID CITY. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE
THE TRANSITION ZONE FROM MVFR CLOUD CEILINGS TO LOWER IFR/LIFR
WHERE THERE IS LIKELY A BETTER CHANCE FOR THE FOG TO GENERATE SOME
RIME ICING. THUS...MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING A COUPLE OF COUNTIES
TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LIGHT ICING.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ALONG I80...THE CLOUD BASES AREA STILL 3000-4000
FEET AND NO DRIZZLE AT ALL WITH JUST LIGHT FOG...SO MAY NOT SEE
THE DRIZZLE UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z WHEN CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO
LOWER. THEN SOUTH OF I80... SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLEAR AND IT WILL
TAKE SEVERAL MORE HOURS FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO ARRIVE. LATEST
HOURLY HIRES HRRR AND RAP MODELS SUGGEST THAT PRECIP ALONG/SOUTH
OF I80 MAY BE LIMITED TO NON EXISTENT UNTIL THE LOWER CLOUDS
DEVELOP...GENERALLY BEYOND 12Z. THUS...THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN THE ADVISORY AREA ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 ARE
VERY LOW...BUT GIVEN THAT THE CURRENT WEATHER ADVISORY IS ALREADY
IN EFFECT...WILL LET IT RIDE FOR NOW WITH THE CAVEAT THAT WE MAY
NEED TO CANCEL THAT LATER THIS MORNING IF THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE/RAIN FAILS TO MATERIALIZE.
ALONG/NORTH OF I80...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT ICING DUE TO THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT COLDER AIR WILL ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE
REGION CHANGING THIS OVER TO SNOW THROUGH TIME AS WELL MITIGATING
THE AMOUNT OF ICING ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE.
SNOW CHANCES DO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
LOW CONTINUES TO PULL FURTHER TO THE EAST...THUS THINKING WE WILL
SEE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA WHERE WE STILL HAVE 1 TO 2 INCHES FORECAST...FROM ONE
HALF TO ONE INCH JUST NORTH OF I80...AND ONE HALF INCH OR LESS
SOUTH OF I80. LINGERING FLURRIES WILL PROBABLY EXIST ALONG/EAST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER YET THIS EVENING.
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COOL ON TUESDAY...THEN
GRADUALLY WARMER ON WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
DRY WEATHER EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS
RISING INTO THE 40S. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER APPEARS AT THE END OF
THE EXTENDED BY SUNDAY WITH A RAIN/SNOW CHANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
TRICKY FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES. CEILINGS WILL FALL TO IFR RANGE...AND
VISIBILITY ALSO WILL FALL TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR RANGE. STILL
EXPECT PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT HAVE BUMPED TIMING BACK A
FEW HOURS. HAVE THEN SPED UP CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW AND ELIMINATED
MENTION OF SLEET. CONTINUE TO THINK ANY ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE
VERY LIGHT...WITH UP TO 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW AT KOFK AND UP TO AN
INCH AT KOMA/KLNK. SNOW SHOULD TAPER AROUND 23-01Z...BUT HAVE HELD
ONTO MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF CYCLE. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ034-
044-045-051>053-066>068-078-088>093.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ043-
055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MAYES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
716 AM EST MON JAN 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE STRATUS THAT SPREAD ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA EARLIER IN THE NIGHT CONTINUES TO DRIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. IT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE BY DAYBREAK LEAVING JUST
SOME THINNING HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY. WILL SEE
A THICKENING AND LOWERING OF THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP
THROUGH 00Z. ALL OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HRRR SHOWS
THE PRECIP STAYING WEST OF I-75 THROUGH 00Z. TEMPS GOT WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE ON SUNDAY BUT GIVEN THE THICKENING CLOUDS THINK IT SHOULD
DO BETTER TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN WILL ARRIVE AFTER DARK AND SPREAD INTO NW PA BY 06Z. TEMPS
AND CRITICAL THICKNESSES SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY HIGH ENOUGH TO
ENSURE ALL RAIN. QPF AMOUNTS WON`T BE THAT GREAT WITH MAYBE A
TENTH OR TWO MOST AREAS. THE GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING
OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. IT SHOULD BE NEAR THE I-71 CORRIDOR
JUST AFTER 12Z AND EAST OF THE AREA BY 15 OR 16Z. STILL EXPECTING
ABOUT 8 TO 9 DEGREES OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB DURING THE
DAY. HIGHS WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY WITH STEADY OR FALLING
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY. A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SO EXPECT THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIP TO REALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY. SOME WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE HIT
AND MISS AND MAINLY IN THE NORTH. CRITICAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST A
TRANSITION TO SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS GREAT AT IT DID THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
INITIALLY THERE WILL BE A STRONG INVERSION AT AROUND 3K FEET ON
TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LIFT TO AROUND 5K FEET DURING THE NIGHT
BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITH THE ACTIVITY PEAKING AROUND
12Z ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS IN THE SNOWBELT WITH A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW. A TROUGH WILL SLIDE SE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ENDING THE SNOW. THUS THE WINDOW FOR LAKE EFFECT IS PRETTY SHORT
AND MUCH OF THAT TIME WILL BE SPENT JUST SETTING THINGS UP. THE
RISK FOR NEEDING HEADLINES APPEARS MINIMAL. LOCATIONS AWAY FROM
THE LAKE WILL SEE SOME ON WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT FAST MOVING CLIPPER
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT KEEPING ANY PRECIP WITH SYSTEM NORTH OF THE AREAS.
THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW IN NW PA DURING THE DAY BUT THAT
SHOULD BE ABOUT IT. SOME SOME LAKE EFFECT COULD GET ESTABLISHED ON
THURSDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE. THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE
WARM BUT WE WILL SETTLE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TRANSITION FROM A TROUGH ALONG THE EAST
COAST TO A MORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A WARMING TREND REMAINS IN STORE ALTHOUGH
MODELS SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR NORTH
TO LIFT THE WARM FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z/30 GFS IS THE
FASTEST WITH THE WARM FRONT ALMOST NORTH OF THE AREA BY 12Z SAT...
WHILE THE ECMWF LEAVES THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND AND DOES NOT FULLY LIFT IT NORTH UNTIL MONDAY. WENT WITH A
BLENDED APPROACH GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS FAR OUT. LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY ACCOMPANY THE WARM
FRONT AND CARRIED A LOW CHANCE POP AT TIMES SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 22Z WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN
TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS ABRUPTLY LOWERING TO MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AND SPREAD EAST
OVERNIGHT AND POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH GUSTS
OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS...LOCALLY HIGHER AT ERI. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 45-55KT AROUND 2K
FEET. DID NOT INCLUDE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEER IN THE TAFS AS SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AT THE SAME TIME BUT IT MAY NEED TO
BE ADDED IF GUSTS DO NOT DEVELOP. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONTINUES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. NON VFR
RETURNS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT
FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT...PULLING A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS LAKE
ERIE ON TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO WEST SOUTHWEST
AND EVENTUALLY WEST BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. A GALE WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST OF GENEVA-ON-
THE-LAKE AS WINDS INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS GALES. WINDS DECREASE FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LAKES AGAIN ON
THURSDAY BRINGING A MARGINAL INCREASE IN WINDS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
LEZ061-148-149-168-169.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
359 AM EST MON JAN 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE STRATUS THAT SPREAD ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA EARLIER IN THE NIGHT CONTINUES TO DRIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. IT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE BY DAYBREAK LEAVING JUST
SOME THINNING HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY. WILL SEE
A THICKENING AND LOWERING OF THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP
THROUGH 00Z. ALL OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HRRR SHOWS
THE PRECIP STAYING WEST OF I-75 THROUGH 00Z. TEMPS GOT WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE ON SUNDAY BUT GIVEN THE THICKENING CLOUDS THINK IT SHOULD
DO BETTER TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN WILL ARRIVE AFTER DARK AND SPREAD INTO NW PA BY 06Z. TEMPS
AND CRITICAL THICKNESSES SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY HIGH ENOUGH TO
ENSURE ALL RAIN. QPF AMOUNTS WON`T BE THAT GREAT WITH MAYBE A
TENTH OR TWO MOST AREAS. THE GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING
OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. IT SHOULD BE NEAR THE I-71 CORRIDOR
JUST AFTER 12Z AND EAST OF THE AREA BY 15 OR 16Z. STILL EXPECTING
ABOUT 8 TO 9 DEGREES OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB DURING THE
DAY. HIGHS WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY WITH STEADY OR FALLING
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY. A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SO EXPECT THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIP TO REALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY. SOME WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE HIT
AND MISS AND MAINLY IN THE NORTH. CRITICAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST A
TRANSITION TO SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS GREAT AT IT DID THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
INITIALLY THERE WILL BE A STRONG INVERSION AT AROUND 3K FEET ON
TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LIFT TO AROUND 5K FEET DURING THE NIGHT
BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITH THE ACTIVITY PEAKING AROUND
12Z ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS IN THE SNOWBELT WITH A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW. A TROUGH WILL SLIDE SE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ENDING THE SNOW. THUS THE WINDOW FOR LAKE EFFECT IS PRETTY SHORT
AND MUCH OF THAT TIME WILL BE SPENT JUST SETTING THINGS UP. THE
RISK FOR NEEDING HEADLINES APPEARS MINIMAL. LOCATIONS AWAY FROM
THE LAKE WILL SEE SOME ON WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT FAST MOVING CLIPPER
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT KEEPING ANY PRECIP WITH SYSTEM NORTH OF THE AREAS.
THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW IN NW PA DURING THE DAY BUT THAT
SHOULD BE ABOUT IT. SOME SOME LAKE EFFECT COULD GET ESTABLISHED ON
THURSDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE. THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE
WARM BUT WE WILL SETTLE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TRANSITION FROM A TROUGH ALONG THE EAST
COAST TO A MORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A WARMING TREND REMAINS IN STORE ALTHOUGH
MODELS SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR NORTH
TO LIFT THE WARM FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z/30 GFS IS THE
FASTEST WITH THE WARM FRONT ALMOST NORTH OF THE AREA BY 12Z SAT...
WHILE THE ECMWF LEAVES THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND AND DOES NOT FULLY LIFT IT NORTH UNTIL MONDAY. WENT WITH A
BLENDED APPROACH GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS FAR OUT. LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY ACCOMPANY THE WARM
FRONT AND CARRIED A LOW CHANCE POP AT TIMES SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAS SPREAD OVER NE OH AND NW PA BUT HAS HELD FAIRLY STEADY PAST
HOUR OR SO. STILL MAY SEE SOME OF THIS DROP TO MVFR LEVELS REST OF
THE NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE ENE MON MORNING. SSW WINDS OF
5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS MON.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH MVFR CIGS INTO TOL AND FDY BY
00Z ALONG WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE MVFR SPREADING
EAST INTO MFD AND CLE BY 06Z.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN
LIGHT RAIN THEN SNOW.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT...PULLING A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS LAKE
ERIE ON TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO WEST SOUTHWEST
AND EVENTUALLY WEST BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. A GALE WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST OF GENEVA-ON-
THE-LAKE AS WINDS INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS GALES. WINDS DECREASE FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LAKES AGAIN ON
THURSDAY BRINGING A MARGINAL INCREASE IN WINDS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
LEZ061-148-149-168-169.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1152 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN BRIEFLY ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATE...STRATUS DECK AROUND 4KFT NOW COVERS NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NWRN PA WHILE CIRRUS OF VARYING OPACITY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
SATELLITE SHOWS THE CIRRUS THINNING AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING
SO FAR. GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH LEVEL RH REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT
(400MB & 300MB) SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT TRENDS WEST/CENTRAL.
FOR AREAS UNDER THE STRATUS...THE HRRR SHOWS THIS PULLING
NORTHEAST QUICKLY EARLY TONIGHT. NOT ALL THAT CONFIDENT JUST
WHISPING IT AWAY GIVEN THE CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. IN FACT SATELLITE
SHOWS THE DECK BUILDING SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS. SO WILL KEEP STRATUS IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT...INTERPOLATING INTO THE EXISTING 12Z GRID.
ORIGINAL...OVERALL A QUIET NIGHT WITH THE HIGH JUST OFF TO OUR
EAST. THERE HAS BEEN SOME LIGHT RADAR RETURNS SPREADING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. DOUBTFUL THERE
WOULD BE MUCH IF ANYTHING FOR OUR NORTHEAST CORNER. BUT IF SO IT
MAY FALL AS LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW...REALLY A SMALL CHANCE. OTHERWISE THOSE WHO HAVE HAD
PLENTY OF SUN TODAY WILL HAVE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING MORE CLOUDS NORTH THAN SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL...BUT NOT AS MUCH WITH THE LIGHT SOUTH WIND CONTINUING
FOR ALL BUT THE SHELTERED LOCATIONS. EXPECTING 20S...WITH A FEW
UPPER TEENS IN THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE GOOD WARM ADVECTIVE PUSH COMES MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S/NEAR 40.
MONDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THE LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...SCATTERED PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT.
MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED WHICH MADE IT HARD TO GO MUCH MORE
THAN 50-60 PERCENT FOR PRECIP CHANCES. THERMAL PROFILES ADEQUATELY
WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...EXCEPTION MAY BE A FEW CHILLY VALLEYS OF NW
PA WHERE THEY HAVE A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. HAVE
EARLY LOWS WITH TEMPS SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
EAST...MORE IN THE WAY OF STEADY TEMPS WEST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSING ACROSS WESTERN OHIO BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...AND LIKELY REACHING EASTERN OHIO/NW PA EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. A DRY SLOT FOLLOWS BEHIND IT...BUT LINGERED SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE DAY AS WE MAINTAIN GENERALLY CYCLONIC
FLOW. WITH THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE COLD AIR...ANY LINGERING PRECIP
WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO GO ANYWHERE. SO UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S WILL BE THE HIGHS
FOR THE DAY. SOME MAY LOSE A FEW DEGREES.
THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AGAIN HAVE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS FOR ALL
AREAS...BUT FOCUS THE 50+ PERCENT CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO/NW
PA WHERE LAKE MOISTURE WILL HELP. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING H8 TEMPS
WILL BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT AND THE FLOW WILL
BE SWITCHING FROM WEST-SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ONLY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE HIGH BUILDS IN. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW
PA. MODELS THEN DIFFER ON INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THE NEXT COUPLE
RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SINCE THERE IS SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WE
DID NOT GO WITH MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS.
WARMER EACH DAY OF THE LONG TERM. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 30
TO 35 DEGREES. A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS BRING IN A BIT MORE WARMTH SATURDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS BACK
INTO THE THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... STRATOCU HAS SPREAD OVER NE
OH AND NW PA BUT HAS HELD FAIRLY STEADY PAST HOUR OR SO. STILL MAY
SEE SOME OF THIS DROP TO MVFR LEVELS REST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE
SHIFTING OFF TO THE ENE MON MORNING. SSW WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS MON.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH MVFR CIGS INTO TOL AND FDY BY
00Z ALONG WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE MVFR SPREADING
EAST INTO MFD AND CLE BY 06Z.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN
LIGHT RAIN THEN SNOW.
&&
.MARINE...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF LAKE ERIE TONIGHT WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY SUNRISE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
AND THEN STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE MAY GET WINDS TO THE LOW
END GALE CONDITIONS FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF LAKE ERIE. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND ISSUED A GALE WATCH FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 1AM WEDNESDAY.
WINDS DECREASE BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THEY AT LEAST BRIEFLY SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONLY BRIEFLY TAKE CONTROL ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM ARRIVING THURSDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
LEZ061-148-149-168-169.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1042 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR IS MOVING INTO THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES WILL TURN
SEASONABLY COLD THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS
FAIRLY BENIGN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENIES...AND GENERALLY DRY ELSEWHERE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
HARDLY ANYTHING REACHING THE GROUND OVER THE SE...SO HAVE NUDGED
POPS DOWN A NOTCH. DRY AIR FINALLY MOVING IN WITH DEWPOINTS INTO
THE L20S NW. HIGHER CLOUDS WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST AND PARTIAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR THE SERN THIRD OF THE AREA. WIND MAY KEEP
TEMPS UP AT CURRENT MINS...SO WILL HOLD THOSE AS IS. THERE COULD
BE ICY SPOTS AROUND - ESP BRIDGES/OVERPASSES.
7 PM UPDATE...
RAIN WORKING DOWN FROM ALOFT OVER THE SE. JUST PATCHY LIGHT STUFF
RIGHT NOW. FRONT IS THROUGH A LITTLE MORE THAN HALF OF THE AREA
NOW...AND WINDS ARE GUSTY BEHIND IT BUT LESS SO THAN A FEW HOURS
AGO. TEMPS JUST INCHING DOWN NOW. MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMP CURVE
OVERALL AND POP IN THE SE. MINS STILL LOOK FINE.
PREV...
REGIONAL 88D LOOP AND SFC OBS SHOWS SOME PATCHY VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
DRIFTING NEWD...ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WAS PUSHING
EAST AND OFF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...NEAR THE I-99 CORRIDOR AT
1930Z. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...IS AN EXPANDING RIBBON OF LIGHT RAIN SEEN STREAKING TO
THE NE FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS AREA LIGHT RAIN WAS
BLOSSOMING IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING UVVEL AND LLVL CONVERGENCE
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC-850 MB FRONT AND RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 150 KT JET...WHOSE AXIS WAS LOCATED JUST TO THE NW OF
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AT MID AFTERNOON. 12Z NAM...15Z SREF AND THE
18Z HRRR ALL SHOW A FEW HUNDREDTHS...TO AS MUCH AS 0.10 OF AN INCH
OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES WHILE
LOCATIONS TO THE NW OF INTERSTATE 81 SEE LITTLE OR NOTHING FROM
THIS VERY WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES AT THE SFC AND JET ENERGY ALOFT.
THE RELATIVELY MILD SWLY WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPS
INTO THE LOW- MID 40S IN MANY LOCATION FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE THE BEST DOWNSLOPE
LLVL FLOW AND ADIABATIC WARMING RIGHT BEHIND THE CFRONT WILL BE
FROM KAOO TO KUNV WHERE TEMPS COULD BRIEFLY JUMP TO THE U40S TO
NEAR 50F IN THE 19-22Z PERIOD.
MEAN...925-850 MB WET BULB ZERO ISOTHERM /AND THE LOCATION OF THE
COLD FRONT/ ATTM EXTENDED FROM NEAR KBFD TO KPIT. THE LIGHT
RAIN/SHOWERS WILL BE CHANGING OVER TO FLURRIES AND SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AFTER THE CFRONTAL PASSAGE...THE GENERALLY QUITE SHALLOW
AND WARM STRATO CU WILL SUPPORT NOTHING MORE THAN SOME FLURRIES
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION TONIGHT.
SW TO WEST SFC WIND WILL QUICKLY FRESHEN NEAR AND IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...AND WILL GUST BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT /WEST/...AND THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
FURTHER TO THE EAST - ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
ACCOMPANYING THE GRADUAL DROP IN TEMPERATURES /AND WARM STRATUS
AND STRATOCU CLOUD LAYER CONTAINING MAINLY SUPERCOOLED WATER
DROPLETS/...COULD BE A BRIEF...FEW-HOUR PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
THIS EVENING ALONG THE FAVORED WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS BEFORE THE
COLD AIR DEEPENS ENOUGH AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF THE
LOWER LAKES. THE FZDZ IS A LOW PROB EVENT THOUGH. A MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION /LESS THAN 1 INCH/ IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK 12Z
WEDNESDAY OVER THE NW MTNS...AND PERHAPS A FRESH LIGHT COATING
OVER THE LAURELS.
LOW TEMPS EARLY WED WILL VARY FROM 23 OR 24F ACROSS THE WRN MTNS
/WHERE THE BREEZE AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP READINGS SEVERAL DEG
F OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS/...TO THE UPPER 20S
IN THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION LKLY FROM THE NW
ALLEGHENIES INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES
WED NGT AND BRINGS AN END TO THE LES ACTIVITY. WEDNESDAY/S HIGH
TEMPS SLIDE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY WITH WED NIGHT
LOWS BTWN 10-20F -- COLDEST READINGS IN THE SOUTH WHERE THE DEEPER
SNOWPACK WILL HANG TOUGH.
MODELS TRACK CLIPPER LOW NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TOWARD NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z FRIDAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLY COLDER W/NW FLOW
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT AND
OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN MTNS THUR NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTERN SYSTEM WILL NOT
PHASE WITH THE TROUGH AND THUS REMAIN FAR ENOUGH EAST TO PRECLUDE
ANY PRECIP REACHING BACK INTO THE LOWER SUSQ. BUT THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH WILL SPREAD GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS INTO NW HALF OF
CWA THROUGH LATE WEEK AS BRISK SW FLOW TURNS TO THE NW...OPENING
UP THE LAKES TO LIKELY IMPACT FAR NW SNOWBELT WITH A PERIOD OF
MORE INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BANDS LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
FAST ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGS A WEAK RIDGE THROUGH FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT...BUT THEN SERIES OF WEAKER WAVES SLIDE THROUGH THE
REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPS WARM UP A BIT...BRINGING IMPACTS
FROM GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW CEDING TO RAIN. HOWEVER THERE IS GREATER
MODEL DIVERGENCE SO CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW. HOWEVER THE
PATTER DOES SHOW ANOTHER FRONT POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
03Z TAFS SENT.
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE.
EASTERN AREAS STILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS. LLWS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE EAST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
FURTHER WEST...A GUSTY SW FLOW OF FRESH SPRING LIKE MILD
AIR.
EXPECT LOWER SC LATER TONIGHT AT JST AND BFD...AS COLDER
AIR BUILDS EASTWARD. PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES AT JST AND
BFD.
UNV AND AOO LIKELY TO SEE MVFR CIGS AT TIMES.
FURTHER EAST...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
BY LATER WED AFT...EXPECT CLEARING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION...AS HEIGHTS RISE. CLEARIING COULD OCCUR EARLIER.
HOWEVER...RISING HEIGHTS COULD RESULT IN SC BEING TRAPPED
UNDER THE INVERSION.
OUTLOOK...
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST PA. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST LATE.
FRI...SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE N AND
W MTNS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERHAPS A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE NW.
SUN...A FEW RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY LATE ACROSS
THE WEST.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/RXR
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1023 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR IS MOVING INTO THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES WILL TURN
SEASONABLY COLD THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS
FAIRLY BENIGN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENIES...AND GENERALLY DRY ELSEWHERE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
HARDLY ANYTHING REACHING THE GROUND OVER THE SE...SO HAVE NUDGED
POPS DOWN A NOTCH. DRY AIR FINALLY MOVING IN WITH DEWPOINTS INTO
THE L20S NW. HIGHER CLOUDS WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST AND PARTIAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR THE SERN THIRD OF THE AREA. WIND MAY KEEP
TEMPS UP AT CURRENT MINS...SO WILL HOLD THOSE AS IS. THERE COULD
BE ICY SPOTS AROUND - ESP BRIDGES/OVERPASSES.
7 PM UPDATE...
RAIN WORKING DOWN FROM ALOFT OVER THE SE. JUST PATCHY LIGHT STUFF
RIGHT NOW. FRONT IS THROUGH A LITTLE MORE THAN HALF OF THE AREA
NOW...AND WINDS ARE GUSTY BEHIND IT BUT LESS SO THAN A FEW HOURS
AGO. TEMPS JUST INCHING DOWN NOW. MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMP CURVE
OVERALL AND POP IN THE SE. MINS STILL LOOK FINE.
PREV...
REGIONAL 88D LOOP AND SFC OBS SHOWS SOME PATCHY VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
DRIFTING NEWD...ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WAS PUSHING
EAST AND OFF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...NEAR THE I-99 CORRIDOR AT
1930Z. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...IS AN EXPANDING RIBBON OF LIGHT RAIN SEEN STREAKING TO
THE NE FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS AREA LIGHT RAIN WAS
BLOSSOMING IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING UVVEL AND LLVL CONVERGENCE
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC-850 MB FRONT AND RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 150 KT JET...WHOSE AXIS WAS LOCATED JUST TO THE NW OF
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AT MID AFTERNOON. 12Z NAM...15Z SREF AND THE
18Z HRRR ALL SHOW A FEW HUNDREDTHS...TO AS MUCH AS 0.10 OF AN INCH
OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES WHILE
LOCATIONS TO THE NW OF INTERSTATE 81 SEE LITTLE OR NOTHING FROM
THIS VERY WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES AT THE SFC AND JET ENERGY ALOFT.
THE RELATIVELY MILD SWLY WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPS
INTO THE LOW- MID 40S IN MANY LOCATION FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE THE BEST DOWNSLOPE
LLVL FLOW AND ADIABATIC WARMING RIGHT BEHIND THE CFRONT WILL BE
FROM KAOO TO KUNV WHERE TEMPS COULD BRIEFLY JUMP TO THE U40S TO
NEAR 50F IN THE 19-22Z PERIOD.
MEAN...925-850 MB WET BULB ZERO ISOTHERM /AND THE LOCATION OF THE
COLD FRONT/ ATTM EXTENDED FROM NEAR KBFD TO KPIT. THE LIGHT
RAIN/SHOWERS WILL BE CHANGING OVER TO FLURRIES AND SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AFTER THE CFRONTAL PASSAGE...THE GENERALLY QUITE SHALLOW
AND WARM STRATO CU WILL SUPPORT NOTHING MORE THAN SOME FLURRIES
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION TONIGHT.
SW TO WEST SFC WIND WILL QUICKLY FRESHEN NEAR AND IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...AND WILL GUST BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT /WEST/...AND THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
FURTHER TO THE EAST - ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
ACCOMPANYING THE GRADUAL DROP IN TEMPERATURES /AND WARM STRATUS
AND STRATOCU CLOUD LAYER CONTAINING MAINLY SUPERCOOLED WATER
DROPLETS/...COULD BE A BRIEF...FEW-HOUR PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
THIS EVENING ALONG THE FAVORED WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS BEFORE THE
COLD AIR DEEPENS ENOUGH AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF THE
LOWER LAKES. THE FZDZ IS A LOW PROB EVENT THOUGH. A MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION /LESS THAN 1 INCH/ IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK 12Z
WEDNESDAY OVER THE NW MTNS...AND PERHAPS A FRESH LIGHT COATING
OVER THE LAURELS.
LOW TEMPS EARLY WED WILL VARY FROM 23 OR 24F ACROSS THE WRN MTNS
/WHERE THE BREEZE AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP READINGS SEVERAL DEG
F OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS/...TO THE UPPER 20S
IN THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION LKLY FROM THE NW
ALLEGHENIES INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES
WED NGT AND BRINGS AN END TO THE LES ACTIVITY. WEDNESDAY/S HIGH
TEMPS SLIDE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY WITH WED NIGHT
LOWS BTWN 10-20F -- COLDEST READINGS IN THE SOUTH WHERE THE DEEPER
SNOWPACK WILL HANG TOUGH.
MODELS TRACK CLIPPER LOW NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TOWARD NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z FRIDAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLY COLDER W/NW FLOW
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT AND
OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN MTNS THUR NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTERN SYSTEM WILL NOT
PHASE WITH THE TROUGH AND THUS REMAIN FAR ENOUGH EAST TO PRECLUDE
ANY PRECIP REACHING BACK INTO THE LOWER SUSQ. BUT THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH WILL SPREAD GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS INTO NW HALF OF
CWA THROUGH LATE WEEK AS BRISK SW FLOW TURNS TO THE NW...OPENING
UP THE LAKES TO LIKELY IMPACT FAR NW SNOWBELT WITH A PERIOD OF
MORE INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BANDS LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
FAST ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGS A WEAK RIDGE THROUGH FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT...BUT THEN SERIES OF WEAKER WAVES SLIDE THROUGH THE
REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPS WARM UP A BIT...BRINGING IMPACTS
FROM GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW CEDING TO RAIN. HOWEVER THERE IS GREATER
MODEL DIVERGENCE SO CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW. HOWEVER THE
PATTER DOES SHOW ANOTHER FRONT POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z TAFS SENT.
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE.
EASTERN AREAS STILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS. LLWS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE EAST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
FURTHER WEST...A GUSTY SW FLOW OF FRESH SPRING LIKE MILD
AIR.
EXPECT LOWER SC LATER TONIGHT AT JST AND BFD...AS COLDER
AIR BUILDS EASTWARD. PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES AT JST AND
BFD.
FURTHER EAST...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
BY LATER WED AFT...EXPECT CLEARING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION...AS HEIGHTS RISE. CLEARIING COULD OCCUR EARLIER.
HOWEVER...RISING HEIGHTS COULD RESULT IN SC BEING TRAPPED
UNDER THE INVERSION.
OUTLOOK...
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST PA. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST LATE.
FRI...SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE N AND
W MTNS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERHAPS A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE NW.
SUN...A FEW RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY LATE ACROSS
THE WEST.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/RXR
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
750 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH CROSSING THE COMMONWEALTH EARLY TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SEASONABLY COLDER AND AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
ALLEGHENIES...AND GENERALLY DRY ELSEWHERE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
RAIN WORKING DOWN FROM ALOFT OVER THE SE. JUST PATCHY LIGHT STUFF
RIGHT NOW. FRONT IS THROUGH A LITTLE MORE THAN HALF OF THE AREA
NOW...AND WINDS ARE GUSTY BEHIND IT BUT LESS SO THAN A FEW HOURS
AGO. TEMPS JUST INCHING DOWN NOW. MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMP CURVE
OVERALL AND POP IN THE SE. MINS STILL LOOK FINE.
PREV...
REGIONAL 88D LOOP AND SFC OBS SHOWS SOME PATCHY VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
DRIFTING NEWD...ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WAS PUSHING
EAST AND OFF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...NEAR THE I-99 CORRIDOR AT
1930Z. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...IS AN EXPANDING RIBBON OF LIGHT RAIN SEEN STREAKING TO
THE NE FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS AREA LIGHT RAIN WAS
BLOSSOMING IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING UVVEL AND LLVL CONVERGENCE
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC-850 MB FRONT AND RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 150 KT JET...WHOSE AXIS WAS LOCATED JUST TO THE NW OF
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AT MID AFTERNOON. 12Z NAM...15Z SREF AND THE
18Z HRRR ALL SHOW A FEW HUNDREDTHS...TO AS MUCH AS 0.10 OF AN INCH
OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES WHILE
LOCATIONS TO THE NW OF INTERSTATE 81 SEE LITTLE OR NOTHING FROM
THIS VERY WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES AT THE SFC AND JET ENERGY ALOFT.
THE RELATIVELY MILD SWLY WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPS
INTO THE LOW- MID 40S IN MANY LOCATION FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE THE BEST DOWNSLOPE
LLVL FLOW AND ADIABATIC WARMING RIGHT BEHIND THE CFRONT WILL BE
FROM KAOO TO KUNV WHERE TEMPS COULD BRIEFLY JUMP TO THE U40S TO
NEAR 50F IN THE 19-22Z PERIOD.
MEAN...925-850 MB WET BULB ZERO ISOTHERM /AND THE LOCATION OF THE
COLD FRONT/ ATTM EXTENDED FROM NEAR KBFD TO KPIT. THE LIGHT
RAIN/SHOWERS WILL BE CHANGING OVER TO FLURRIES AND SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AFTER THE CFRONTAL PASSAGE...THE GENERALLY QUITE SHALLOW
AND WARM STRATO CU WILL SUPPORT NOTHING MORE THAN SOME FLURRIES
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION TONIGHT.
SW TO WEST SFC WIND WILL QUICKLY FRESHEN NEAR AND IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...AND WILL GUST BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT /WEST/...AND THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
FURTHER TO THE EAST - ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
ACCOMPANYING THE GRADUAL DROP IN TEMPERATURES /AND WARM STRATUS
AND STRATOCU CLOUD LAYER CONTAINING MAINLY SUPERCOOLED WATER
DROPLETS/...COULD BE A BRIEF...FEW-HOUR PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
THIS EVENING ALONG THE FAVORED WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS BEFORE THE
COLD AIR DEEPENS ENOUGH AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF THE
LOWER LAKES. THE FZDZ IS A LOW PROB EVENT THOUGH. A MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION /LESS THAN 1 INCH/ IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK 12Z
WEDNESDAY OVER THE NW MTNS...AND PERHAPS A FRESH LIGHT COATING
OVER THE LAURELS.
LOW TEMPS EARLY WED WILL VARY FROM 23 OR 24F ACROSS THE WRN MTNS
/WHERE THE BREEZE AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP READINGS SEVERAL DEG
F OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS/...TO THE UPPER 20S
IN THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION LKLY FROM THE NW
ALLEGHENIES INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES
WED NGT AND BRINGS AN END TO THE LES ACTIVITY. WEDNESDAY/S HIGH
TEMPS SLIDE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY WITH WED NIGHT
LOWS BTWN 10-20F -- COLDEST READINGS IN THE SOUTH WHERE THE DEEPER
SNOWPACK WILL HANG TOUGH.
MODELS TRACK CLIPPER LOW NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TOWARD NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z FRIDAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLY COLDER W/NW FLOW
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT AND
OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN MTNS THUR NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTERN SYSTEM WILL NOT
PHASE WITH THE TROUGH AND THUS REMAIN FAR ENOUGH EAST TO PRECLUDE
ANY PRECIP REACHING BACK INTO THE LOWER SUSQ. BUT THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH WILL SPREAD GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS INTO NW HALF OF
CWA THROUGH LATE WEEK AS BRISK SW FLOW TURNS TO THE NW...OPENING
UP THE LAKES TO LIKELY IMPACT FAR NW SNOWBELT WITH A PERIOD OF
MORE INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BANDS LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
FAST ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGS A WEAK RIDGE THROUGH FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT...BUT THEN SERIES OF WEAKER WAVES SLIDE THROUGH THE
REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPS WARM UP A BIT...BRINGING IMPACTS
FROM GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW CEDING TO RAIN. HOWEVER THERE IS GREATER
MODEL DIVERGENCE SO CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW. HOWEVER THE
PATTER DOES SHOW ANOTHER FRONT POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z TAFS SENT.
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE.
EASTERN AREAS STILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS. LLWS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE EAST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
FURTHER WEST...A GUSTY SW FLOW OF FRESH SPRING LIKE MILD
AIR.
EXPECT LOWER SC LATER TONIGHT AT JST AND BFD...AS COLDER
AIR BUILDS EASTWARD. PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES AT JST AND
BFD.
FURTHER EAST...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
BY LATER WED AFT...EXPECT CLEARING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION...AS HEIGHTS RISE. CLEARIING COULD OCCUR EARLIER.
HOWEVER...RISING HEIGHTS COULD RESULT IN SC BEING TRAPPED
UNDER THE INVERSION.
OUTLOOK...
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST PA. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST LATE.
FRI...SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE N AND
W MTNS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERHAPS A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE NW.
SUN...A FEW RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY LATE ACROSS
THE WEST.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/RXR
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
704 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH CROSSING THE COMMONWEALTH EARLY TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SEASONABLY COLDER AND AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
ALLEGHENIES...AND GENERALLY DRY ELSEWHERE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
RAIN WORKING DOWN FROM ALOFT OVER THE SE. JUST PATCHY LIGHT STUFF
RIGHT NOW. FRONT IS THROUGH A LITTLE MORE THAN HALF OF THE AREA
NOW...AND WINDS ARE GUSTY BEHIND IT BUT LESS SO THAN A FEW HOURS
AGO. TEMPS JUST INCHING DOWN NOW. MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMP CURVE
OVERALL AND POP IN THE SE. MINS STILL LOOK FINE.
PREV...
REGIONAL 88D LOOP AND SFC OBS SHOWS SOME PATCHY VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
DRIFTING NEWD...ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WAS PUSHING
EAST AND OFF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...NEAR THE I-99 CORRIDOR AT
1930Z. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...IS AN EXPANDING RIBBON OF LIGHT RAIN SEEN STREAKING TO
THE NE FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS AREA LIGHT RAIN WAS
BLOSSOMING IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING UVVEL AND LLVL CONVERGENCE
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC-850 MB FRONT AND RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 150 KT JET...WHOSE AXIS WAS LOCATED JUST TO THE NW OF
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AT MID AFTERNOON. 12Z NAM...15Z SREF AND THE
18Z HRRR ALL SHOW A FEW HUNDREDTHS...TO AS MUCH AS 0.10 OF AN INCH
OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES WHILE
LOCATIONS TO THE NW OF INTERSTATE 81 SEE LITTLE OR NOTHING FROM
THIS VERY WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES AT THE SFC AND JET ENERGY ALOFT.
THE RELATIVELY MILD SWLY WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPS
INTO THE LOW- MID 40S IN MANY LOCATION FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE THE BEST DOWNSLOPE
LLVL FLOW AND ADIABATIC WARMING RIGHT BEHIND THE CFRONT WILL BE
FROM KAOO TO KUNV WHERE TEMPS COULD BRIEFLY JUMP TO THE U40S TO
NEAR 50F IN THE 19-22Z PERIOD.
MEAN...925-850 MB WET BULB ZERO ISOTHERM /AND THE LOCATION OF THE
COLD FRONT/ ATTM EXTENDED FROM NEAR KBFD TO KPIT. THE LIGHT
RAIN/SHOWERS WILL BE CHANGING OVER TO FLURRIES AND SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AFTER THE CFRONTAL PASSAGE...THE GENERALLY QUITE SHALLOW
AND WARM STRATO CU WILL SUPPORT NOTHING MORE THAN SOME FLURRIES
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION TONIGHT.
SW TO WEST SFC WIND WILL QUICKLY FRESHEN NEAR AND IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...AND WILL GUST BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT /WEST/...AND THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
FURTHER TO THE EAST - ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
ACCOMPANYING THE GRADUAL DROP IN TEMPERATURES /AND WARM STRATUS
AND STRATOCU CLOUD LAYER CONTAINING MAINLY SUPERCOOLED WATER
DROPLETS/...COULD BE A BRIEF...FEW-HOUR PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
THIS EVENING ALONG THE FAVORED WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS BEFORE THE
COLD AIR DEEPENS ENOUGH AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF THE
LOWER LAKES. THE FZDZ IS A LOW PROB EVENT THOUGH. A MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION /LESS THAN 1 INCH/ IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK 12Z
WEDNESDAY OVER THE NW MTNS...AND PERHAPS A FRESH LIGHT COATING
OVER THE LAURELS.
LOW TEMPS EARLY WED WILL VARY FROM 23 OR 24F ACROSS THE WRN MTNS
/WHERE THE BREEZE AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP READINGS SEVERAL DEG
F OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS/...TO THE UPPER 20S
IN THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION LKLY FROM THE NW
ALLEGHENIES INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES
WED NGT AND BRINGS AN END TO THE LES ACTIVITY. WEDNESDAY/S HIGH
TEMPS SLIDE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY WITH WED NIGHT
LOWS BTWN 10-20F -- COLDEST READINGS IN THE SOUTH WHERE THE DEEPER
SNOWPACK WILL HANG TOUGH.
MODELS TRACK CLIPPER LOW NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TOWARD NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z FRIDAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLY COLDER W/NW FLOW
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT AND
OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN MTNS THUR NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTERN SYSTEM WILL NOT
PHASE WITH THE TROUGH AND THUS REMAIN FAR ENOUGH EAST TO PRECLUDE
ANY PRECIP REACHING BACK INTO THE LOWER SUSQ. BUT THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH WILL SPREAD GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS INTO NW HALF OF
CWA THROUGH LATE WEEK AS BRISK SW FLOW TURNS TO THE NW...OPENING
UP THE LAKES TO LIKELY IMPACT FAR NW SNOWBELT WITH A PERIOD OF
MORE INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BANDS LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
FAST ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGS A WEAK RIDGE THROUGH FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT...BUT THEN SERIES OF WEAKER WAVES SLIDE THROUGH THE
REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPS WARM UP A BIT...BRINGING IMPACTS
FROM GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW CEDING TO RAIN. HOWEVER THERE IS GREATER
MODEL DIVERGENCE SO CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW. HOWEVER THE
PATTER DOES SHOW ANOTHER FRONT POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE.
EASTERN AREAS STILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS.
FURTHER WEST...A GUSTY SW FLOW OF FRESH SPRING LIKE MILD
AIR.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE 21Z TAFS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
VFR TO MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST OF THE MVFR
CONDITIONS CONFINED TO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY /3-5SM VSBYS/...AND
THE MTNS OF NW PENN /DUE TO CIGS BETWEEN ABOUT 1300-2300 FT AGL/.
SOME AREAS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL STREAM QUICKLY NE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS SLICING THROUGH ALLEGHENIES
OF WRN PENN AT 1930Z.
THE BEST CHANCE OF A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF STEADIER LIGHT RAIN AND
MVFR VSBYS/CIGS WILL BE NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KTHV
TO KLNS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...AS A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT RIPPLES NE ALONG THE APPROACHING
CFRONT.
A BRIEF FEW HOUR PERIOD OF -FZDZ IS POSSIBLE /20-30 PERCENT
PROBABILITY/ AT KBFD AND KJST BEFORE THE AIR COOLS ENOUGH IN THE
CLOUD LAYER TO SUPPORT ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AND SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
LLWS CONFINED TO AIRFIELDS IN THE SUSQ VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/ WILL ALSO END IN THE WAKE OF THE CFROPA...THEN WSW TO
WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WED...AM LOW CIGS/-SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST PA.
FRI-SAT...OCNL SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE W MTNS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/RXR
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
601 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER WEAK BUT FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY
TUESDAY MORNING. A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF
ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AREAS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM EAST ACROSS
THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.
TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED NICELY INTO THE U30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST...BUT THE DEEP/FRESH SNOWPACK ACROSS THE SOUTH HAS
HELPED TO KEEPS 3-5DEG F LOWER THERE.
SFC DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND SOME AREAS OF LATE DAY
CLEARING...OR AT LEAST THIN SPOTS IN THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALLOW FOR QUICK COOLING AND A SHALLOW...SFC BASED INVERSION TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S
EARLY TONIGHT.
CLOUDS LOWER/THICKEN UP FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT.
17Z HRRR AND SPC/S SSEO DATA INDICATES THAT LIGHT AREAS OF PRECIP
IN THE FORM OF VERY LIGHT RAIN OR PERHAPS SOME POCKETS OF --FZRA
COULD SPREAD INTO THE NW MTNS BETWEEN 07-09Z...THEN OVER THE REST
OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MTS TWD DAYBREAK.
QPF IS QUITE MINIMAL...AND THE TIMING/AMT OF PRECIP MOVING INTO
THE REGION BEFORE TEMPS INCH UP TO 33F IS ALSO RATHER
UNCERTAIN...SO AFTER SOME 12PLANET AND PHONE COORD WITH
KPBZ...KCLE AND KBUF...WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF /FOR NOW/ ON THE
ISSUANCE OF A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE NW AND NCENT MTNS
EARLY TUESDAY. RATHER...WE/LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE CHC FOR
SOME AREAS OF VERY LIGHT FZRA IN THE PHLHWOCTP.
MINS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S ACROSS THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY AND PTS EAST...TO AROUND 32F IN THE FAR NW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
1000 MB SFC LOW ZIPS BY ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND PUSHES A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MDT CAA...AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE LEFT REAR QUAD OF THE
120 KT UPPER JET WILL COINCIDE WITH THE PERIOD OF GREATEST PRES-
GRADIENT ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHICH WILL LEAD TO AND INCREASE IN WSW WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS
AT TIMES...ESP AT KBFD...AND KFIG.
OTHERWISE...AREAS OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP /MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
--RA/ WILL ACCOMPANY THE MAINLY BKN-OVC SKY. THE PRECIP COULD
OCCUR AS SOME PATCHY LIGHT FZRA IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE MTNS
NORTH OF KIPT...WHILE A MIX WITH -SHSN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WRN
MTNS LATER IN THE DAY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. A FEW
SPOTS COULD SEE QPF TOTALS OF AROUND 0.10 DURING THE NEXT 24-30
HOURS...BUT MOST PLACES ACROSS CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY
WILL BE LUCKY TO SEE 0.05 OF AN INCH.
TUESDAY/S TEMPS WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WORK WEEK...AND TOP
OUT IN THE U30S ACROSS THE SE...AND GENERALLY 40-42F ELSEWHERE
/WHICH WILL 10-12F ABOVE NORMAL/.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROLONGED W/NW WIND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN BRISK INTO THE
LATER EVENING HOURS...AND WILL ALSO PRODUCE SCT/NMRS SHSN INTO WED
OVER WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LIGHT ACCUMS LIKELY.
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING IN FROM THE TENN VALLEY SHOULD PROVIDE A
DRY PERIOD WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. BUT NEXT UPPER
TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY INTO THU
NIGHT WHILE ANOTHER WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM SLIDES NE WELL OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT THE
EASTERN SYSTEM WILL NOT PHASE WITH THE TROUGH AND THUS REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP REACHING BACK INTO THE LOWER
SUSQ. BUT THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL SPREAD GENERALLY LIGHT
PRECIP AMOUNTS INTO NW HALF OF CWA THROUGH LATE WEEK AS BRISK SW
FLOW TURNS TO THE NW...OPENING UP THE LAKES TO LIKELY IMPACT FAR
NW SNOWBELT WITH A PERIOD OF MORE INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BANDS LATER
THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
FAST ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGS A WEAK RIDGE THROUGH FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT...BUT THEN SERIES OF WEAKER WAVES SLIDE THROUGH THE
REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPS WARM UP A BIT...BRINGING IMPACTS
FROM GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW CEDING TO RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDS AND LIGHT SOUTH WIND ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE
AIRSPACE.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD LOWERING CIGS INTO THE AREA
EARLY TUES MORNING ALONG WITH THE CHC FOR A BIT OF LGT RAIN OR
FZRA. IN ADDITION...A CORE OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PRECEDE THE
FRONT...CREATING LLWS CONDS AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING ACROSS
WESTERN PA AND LATE TONIGHT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. A
A MCLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS COULD ALSO PROMOTE PATCHY FOG ACROSS
SE PENN...WITH VIS REDUCITONS POSSIBLE AT KMDT/KLNS EARLY TUE AM.
AREAS OF LIGHT WAA PCPN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUE
MORNING ~07-14Z...THEN MAINLY DRY WITH JUST SOME SCT -SHSN AND
BRIEF MVFR VSBYS AND IFR CIGS EXPECTED AT KBFD AND KJST. OTHER
CENTRAL PENN AND SUSQ VALLEY AIRFIELDS WILL STAY VFR /WITH JUST
BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE/.
OUTLOOK...
WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
THU...SLIGHT CHC OF PM SNOW SOUTHEAST PA.
FRI AND SAT...-SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS POSS W MTNS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
347 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER WEAK BUT FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY
TUESDAY MORNING. A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF
ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AREAS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM EAST ACROSS
THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.
TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED NICELY INTO THE U30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST...BUT THE DEEP/FRESH SNOWPACK ACROSS THE SOUTH HAS
HELPED TO KEEPS 3-5DEG F LOWER THERE.
SFC DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND SOME AREAS OF LATE DAY
CLEARING...OR AT LEAST THIN SPOTS IN THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALLOW FOR QUICK COOLING AND A SHALLOW...SFC BASED INVERSION TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S
EARLY TONIGHT.
CLOUDS LOWER/THICKEN UP FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT.
17Z HRRR AND SPC/S SSEO DATA INDICATES THAT LIGHT AREAS OF PRECIP
IN THE FORM OF VERY LIGHT RAIN OR PERHAPS SOME POCKETS OF --FZRA
COULD SPREAD INTO THE NW MTNS BETWEEN 07-09Z...THEN OVER THE REST
OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MTS TWD DAYBREAK.
QPF IS QUITE MINIMAL...AND THE TIMING/AMT OF PRECIP MOVING INTO
THE REGION BEFORE TEMPS INCH UP TO 33F IS ALSO RATHER
UNCERTAIN...SO AFTER SOME 12PLANET AND PHONE COORD WITH
KPBZ...KCLE AND KBUF...WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF /FOR NOW/ ON THE
ISSUANCE OF A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE NW AND NCENT MTNS
EARLY TUESDAY. RATHER...WE/LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE CHC FOR
SOME AREAS OF VERY LIGHT FZRA IN THE PHLHWOCTP.
MINS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S ACROSS THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY AND PTS EAST...TO AROUND 32F IN THE FAR NW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
1000 MB SFC LOW ZIPS BY ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND PUSHES A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MDT CAA...AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE LEFT REAR QUAD OF THE
120 KT UPPER JET WILL COINCIDE WITH THE PERIOD OF GREATEST PRES-
GRADIENT ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHICH WILL LEAD TO AND INCREASE IN WSW WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS
AT TIMES...ESP AT KBFD...AND KFIG.
OTHERWISE...AREAS OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP /MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
--RA/ WILL ACCOMPANY THE MAINLY BKN-OVC SKY. THE PRECIP COULD
OCCUR AS SOME PATCHY LIGHT FZRA IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE MTNS
NORTH OF KIPT...WHILE A MIX WITH -SHSN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WRN
MTNS LATER IN THE DAY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. A FEW
SPOTS COULD SEE QPF TOTALS OF AROUND 0.10 DURING THE NEXT 24-30
HOURS...BUT MOST PLACES ACROSS CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY
WILL BE LUCKY TO SEE 0.05 OF AN INCH.
TUESDAY/S TEMPS WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WORK WEEK...AND TOP
OUT IN THE U30S ACROSS THE SE...AND GENERALLY 40-42F ELSEWHERE
/WHICH WILL 10-12F ABOVE NORMAL/.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROLONGED W/NW WIND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN BRISK INTO THE
LATER EVENING HOURS...AND WILL ALSO PRODUCE SCT/NMRS SHSN INTO WED
OVER WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LIGHT ACCUMS LIKELY.
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING IN FROM THE TENN VALLEY SHOULD PROVIDE A
DRY PERIOD WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. BUT NEXT UPPER
TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY INTO THU
NIGHT WHILE ANOTHER WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM SLIDES NE WELL OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT THE
EASTERN SYSTEM WILL NOT PHASE WITH THE TROUGH AND THUS REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP REACHING BACK INTO THE LOWER
SUSQ. BUT THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL SPREAD GENERALLY LIGHT
PRECIP AMOUNTS INTO NW HALF OF CWA THROUGH LATE WEEK AS BRISK SW
FLOW TURNS TO THE NW...OPENING UP THE LAKES TO LIKELY IMPACT FAR
NW SNOWBELT WITH A PERIOD OF MORE INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BANDS LATER
THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
FAST ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGS A WEAK RIDGE THROUGH FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT...BUT THEN SERIES OF WEAKER WAVES SLIDE THROUGH THE
REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPS WARM UP A BIT...BRINGING IMPACTS
FROM GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW CEDING TO RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA...VFR CONDS AND LIGHT SOUTH WIND ARE EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE AIRSPACE INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE TUESDAY MORNING. LLWS CONTINUES IN
ALL TAFS EXCEPT KIPT AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT WHILE SFC WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR BECOME LIGHT
SOUTHERLY.
AREAS OF LIGHT WAA PCPN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUE
MORNING ~07-14Z...THEN MAINLY DRY WITH JUST SOME SCT -SHSN AND
BRIEF MVFR VSBYS AND IFR CIGS EXPECTED AT KBFD AND KJST. OTHER
CENTRAL PENN AND SUSQ VALLEY AIRFIELDS WILL STAY VFR /WITH JUST
BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE/.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...AM -SHRA/LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE AT KBFD AND KJST /WITH PATCHY
--FZRA POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF KBFD IN THE MORNING. MVFR
TO IFR CIGS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN MOIST WESTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AT KBFD AND KJST.
WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
THU...SLIGHT CHC OF PM SNOW SOUTHEAST PA.
FRI AND SAT...-SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS POSS W MTNS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
315 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER WEAK BUT FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY
TUESDAY MORNING. A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF
ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREAS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM EAST ACROSS
THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.
TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED NICELY INTO THE U30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST...BUT THE DEEP/FRESH SNOWPACK ACROSS THE SOUTH HAS
HELPED TO KEEPS 3-5DEG F LOWER THERE.
SFC DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND SOME AREAS OF LATE DAY
CLEARING...OR AT LEAST THIN SPOTS IN THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALLOW FOR QUICK COOLING AND A SHALLOW...SFC BASED INVERSION TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S
EARLY TONIGHT.
CLOUDS LOWER/THICKEN UP FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT.
17Z HRRR AND SPC/S SSEO DATA INDICATES THAT LIGHT AREAS OF PRECIP
IN THE FORM OF VERY LIGHT RAIN OR PERHAPS SOME POCKETS OF --FZRA
COULD SPREAD INTO THE NW MTNS BETWEEN 07-09Z...THEN OVER THE REST
OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MTS TWD DAYBREAK.
QPF IS QUITE MINIMAL...AND THE TIMING/AMT OF PRECIP MOVING INTO
THE REGION BEFORE TEMPS INCH UP TO 33F IS ALSO RATHER
UNCERTAIN...SO AFTER SOME 12PLANET AND PHONE COORD WITH
KPBZ...KCLE AND KBUF...WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF /FOR NOW/ ON THE
ISSUANCE OF A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE NW AND NCENT MTNS
EARLY TUESDAY. RATHER...WE/LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE CHC FOR
SOME AREAS OF VERY LIGHT FZRA IN THE PHLHWOCTP.
MINS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S ACROSS THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY AND PTS EAST...TO AROUND 32F IN THE FAR NW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
1000 MB SFC LOW ZIPS BY ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND PUSHES A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MDT CAA...AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE LEFT REAR QUAD OF THE
120 KT UPPER JET WILL COINCIDE WITH THE PERIOD OF GREATEST
PRES-GRADIENT ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHICH WILL LEAD TO AND INCREASE IN WSW WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 KTS AT TIMES...ESP AT KBFD...AND KFIG.
OTHERWISE...AREAS OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP /MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
--RA/ WILL ACCOMPANY THE MAINLY BKN-OVC SKY. THE PRECIP COULD
OCCUR AS SOME PATCHY LIGHT FZRA IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE MTNS
NORTH OF KIPT...WHILE A MIX WITH -SHSN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WRN
MTNS LATER IN THE DAY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. A FEW
SPOTS COULD SEE QPF TOTALS OF AROUND 0.10 DURING THE NEXT 24-30
HOURS...BUT MOST PLACES ACROSS CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY
WILL BE LUCKY TO SEE 0.05 OF AN INCH.
TUESDAY/S TEMPS WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WORK WEEK...AND TOP
OUT IN THE U30S ACROSS THE SE...AND GENERALLY 40-42F ELSEWHERE
/WHICH WILL 10-12F ABOVE NORMAL/.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROLONGED W/NW WIND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING SCT/NMRS SHSN FOR
TUES NIGHT AND WED WITH LIGHT ACCUMS LIKELY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
PROVIDE A DRY PERIOD THURSDAY - UNLESSSSSSS.
AN UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO SLIDE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF HINTS AT PRECIP /COLD STUFF/ FROM
A SRN STREAM SYSTEM GETTING CLOSE TO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY INTO SE PA
THURSDAY- FRIDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OTHER MDLS AND GEFS MEMBERS KEEP
PHASING FROM HELPING THE SFC LOW SPIN UP/DEEPEN ENOUGH TO KEEP IT
ON A TRACK TO HIT PA WITH SNOWFALL. THE UPPER LOW MAY MAKE SOME
SHSN IN THE NW HALF FRI/SAT AS IT PASSES OUR LONGITUDE.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA...VFR CONDS AND LIGHT SOUTH WIND ARE EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE AIRSPACE INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE TUESDAY MORNING. LLWS CONTINUES IN
ALL TAFS EXCEPT KIPT AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT WHILE SFC WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR BECOME LIGHT
SOUTHERLY.
AREAS OF LIGHT WAA PCPN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUE
MORNING ~07-14Z...THEN MAINLY DRY WITH JUST SOME SCT -SHSN AND
BRIEF MVFR VSBYS AND IFR CIGS EXPECTED AT KBFD AND KJST. OTHER
CENTRAL PENN AND SUSQ VALLEY AIRFIELDS WILL STAY VFR /WITH JUST
BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE/.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...AM -SHRA/LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE AT KBFD AND KJST /WITH PATCHY
--FZRA POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF KBFD IN THE MORNING. MVFR
TO IFR CIGS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN MOIST WESTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AT KBFD AND KJST.
WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
THU...SLIGHT CHC OF PM SNOW SOUTHEAST PA.
FRI AND SAT...-SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS POSS W MTNS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DANGELO/CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1132 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
WATCHING A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
BAND....AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE BLANKETS THE
FORECAST AREA. LOOKING AT RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN VERY SHORT LIVED AND IS NOT
EXPECTED CAUSE SIGNIFICANT ICING CONCERNS...HOWEVER THE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES MAY RESULT IN SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS
AND SIDEWALKS. THE CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY COVERS THE AREAS OF
GREATEST DENSE FOG CONCERNS...BUT ELSEWHERE...HALF MILE VISIBILITY
WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THIS MORNING. DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL LIKELY
STICK AROUND UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN THE DEEPER MOISTURE
DEVELOPS...ALLOWING ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION AND MORE STEADY SNOWFALL.
RAGGED SNOW BAND IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED OVER THE LAST HOUR OR
SO...AS 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST SD. VORT MAX OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA SHIFTS EASTWARD AND
WEAKENS THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH A SECOND MORE POTENT VORT MAX
FORMING IN EASTERN NEBRASKA THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWEST
IOWA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS TO OUR WEST WEAKENS IN A SIMILAR FASHION AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...THEN
INTENSIFIES ONCE MORE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST SD...NORTHWEST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT AS THE SNOW BAND APPROACHES THE I29 CORRIDOR
LATE MORNING...IT WEAKENS WHILE A SECOND BAND FORMS AHEAD OF IT NEAR
THE I29 CORRIDOR AND BEGINS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS HAS BEEN
SUPPORTED BY THE LAST SEVERAL HRRR AND RAP RUNS...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE OPERATIONAL GFS...REGIONAL GEM AND NAM. BOTH BANDS MERGE
OVER NORTHWEST IOWA/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND FINALLY
EXIT TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 1 3 INCH RANGE...WITH SOME AREAS IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD
AND THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR SEEING LOCALLY AROUND 4 INCHES. THE I29
CORRIDOR IS A TRICKIER FORECAST WITH THE DIFFICULTY IN PINPOINTING
WHERE THE INITIAL BAND DISSIPATES AND THE SECOND ONE DEVELOPS.
EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THIS AREA AND EAST INTO NORTHWEST IOWA/FAR
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. NORTHWEST IOWA WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN THE
EVENT THAT THE SECOND BAND OF SNOW INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY BEFORE
EXITING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN HIGHER AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST.
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING...THEN WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 30
MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT BLOWING SNOW TO BE A
CONCERN...BOTH DURING THE FALLING SNOW AND AFTER THE SNOW TAPERS
OFF. HAVE ADDED MENTION IN THE FORECAST WHERE GUSTS ARE STRONGER
THAN 25 KT. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD AS FAR AS
TIMING AND AREA. DID CONSIDER REMOVING MOODY AND PIPESTONE COUNTIES
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS EXPECTED HERE...BUT THEY ARE BORDERLINE
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING FOR NOW...ESPECIALLY WITH SOME
BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS.
SNOW ENDS THIS EVENING...BUT STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE IN THE
EVENING...AND GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S...AFTER NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES DURING
THE DAY TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE OVER ABOUT THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA AT DAYBREAK TUESDAY. A SLOW BUT STEADY DECREASE IS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY NORTHEAST TO MOSTLY CLEAR SOUTHWEST
BE EARLY EVENING. HAVE LINGERED A LITTLE MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW FAR EAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT NOT BEYOND...WITH WINDS VERY
SLOWLY DECREASING AND NOT TOO MUCH LOOSE NEW SNOW DO NOT EXPECT IT
TO BE A BIG PROBLEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...IN THE 20S.
WARM ADVECTION STARTS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS
EAST OVER THE AREA AND THE SURFACE RIDGE QUICKLY PASSES BY. WINDS
WILL TURN TO SOUTHWEST AND THE SOUTH WITH THE WARMING PICKING UP
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE GREATER
CLOUD COVER AGAIN NORTHEAST. THE AIR SEEMS TO DRY WITH TOO LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
AROUND 30 EAST TO NEAR 40 SOUTHWEST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BRING FURTHER WARMING AS THE UPPER RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE PLAINS AND BEGINS TO BE FLATTENED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 30S NORTHEAST TO THE 40S SOUTHWEST...AND EVEN THE
NORTHEAST SHOULD GET CLOSE TO 40 FRIDAY. WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY
WESTERLY WHICH IS WHAT USUALLY IS THE CASE WHEN YOU GET 40 OVER GOOD
SNOW COVER IN JANUARY.
A WEAK WAVE SATURDAY WILL BRING SLIGHT COOLING FOR THE WEEKEND...
THAT IS NOT DO FAR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WILL GO WITH EXTENDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW FOR SATURDAY AS THE WAVE
PASSES.
THE IDEA OF A POTENTIAL STORM FOR THE POST FORECAST PERIOD EARLY
NEXT WEEK IS STILL ALIVE ON MOST MODELS AS MODEST COOLING
CONTINUES...AND A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
USA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
BAND OF SNOW PIVOTING THROUGH THE AREA WITH IFR CONDITIONS IN THE
BAND. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BAND...WITH MVFR CEILINGS PREVAILING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR SDZ040-
055-056.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ038-
039-050-052>054-057>060-063-064.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ071-
072-097.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
553 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
WATCHING A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
BAND....AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE BLANKETS THE
FORECAST AREA. LOOKING AT RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN VERY SHORT LIVED AND IS NOT
EXPECTED CAUSE SIGNIFICANT ICING CONCERNS...HOWEVER THE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES MAY RESULT IN SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS
AND SIDEWALKS. THE CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY COVERS THE AREAS OF
GREATEST DENSE FOG CONCERNS...BUT ELSEWHERE...HALF MILE VISIBILITY
WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THIS MORNING. DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL LIKELY
STICK AROUND UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN THE DEEPER MOISTURE
DEVELOPS...ALLOWING ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION AND MORE STEADY SNOWFALL.
RAGGED SNOW BAND IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED OVER THE LAST HOUR OR
SO...AS 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST SD. VORT MAX OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA SHIFTS EASTWARD AND
WEAKENS THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH A SECOND MORE POTENT VORT MAX
FORMING IN EASTERN NEBRASKA THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWEST
IOWA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS TO OUR WEST WEAKENS IN A SIMILAR FASHION AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...THEN
INTENSIFIES ONCE MORE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST SD...NORTHWEST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT AS THE SNOW BAND APPROACHES THE I29 CORRIDOR
LATE MORNING...IT WEAKENS WHILE A SECOND BAND FORMS AHEAD OF IT NEAR
THE I29 CORRIDOR AND BEGINS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS HAS BEEN
SUPPORTED BY THE LAST SEVERAL HRRR AND RAP RUNS...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE OPERATIONAL GFS...REGIONAL GEM AND NAM. BOTH BANDS MERGE
OVER NORTHWEST IOWA/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND FINALLY
EXIT TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 1 3 INCH RANGE...WITH SOME AREAS IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD
AND THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR SEEING LOCALLY AROUND 4 INCHES. THE I29
CORRIDOR IS A TRICKIER FORECAST WITH THE DIFFICULTY IN PINPOINTING
WHERE THE INITIAL BAND DISSIPATES AND THE SECOND ONE DEVELOPS.
EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THIS AREA AND EAST INTO NORTHWEST IOWA/FAR
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. NORTHWEST IOWA WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN THE
EVENT THAT THE SECOND BAND OF SNOW INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY BEFORE
EXITING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN HIGHER AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST.
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING...THEN WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 30
MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT BLOWING SNOW TO BE A
CONCERN...BOTH DURING THE FALLING SNOW AND AFTER THE SNOW TAPERS
OFF. HAVE ADDED MENTION IN THE FORECAST WHERE GUSTS ARE STRONGER
THAN 25 KT. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD AS FAR AS
TIMING AND AREA. DID CONSIDER REMOVING MOODY AND PIPESTONE COUNTIES
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS EXPECTED HERE...BUT THEY ARE BORDERLINE
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING FOR NOW...ESPECIALLY WITH SOME
BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS.
SNOW ENDS THIS EVENING...BUT STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE IN THE
EVENING...AND GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S...AFTER NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES DURING
THE DAY TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE OVER ABOUT THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA AT DAYBREAK TUESDAY. A SLOW BUT STEADY DECREASE IS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY NORTHEAST TO MOSTLY CLEAR SOUTHWEST
BE EARLY EVENING. HAVE LINGERED A LITTLE MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW FAR EAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT NOT BEYOND...WITH WINDS VERY
SLOWLY DECREASING AND NOT TOO MUCH LOOSE NEW SNOW DO NOT EXPECT IT
TO BE A BIG PROBLEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...IN THE 20S.
WARM ADVECTION STARTS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS
EAST OVER THE AREA AND THE SURFACE RIDGE QUICKLY PASSES BY. WINDS
WILL TURN TO SOUTHWEST AND THE SOUTH WITH THE WARMING PICKING UP
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE GREATER
CLOUD COVER AGAIN NORTHEAST. THE AIR SEEMS TO DRY WITH TOO LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
AROUND 30 EAST TO NEAR 40 SOUTHWEST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BRING FURTHER WARMING AS THE UPPER RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE PLAINS AND BEGINS TO BE FLATTENED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 30S NORTHEAST TO THE 40S SOUTHWEST...AND EVEN THE
NORTHEAST SHOULD GET CLOSE TO 40 FRIDAY. WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY
WESTERLY WHICH IS WHAT USUALLY IS THE CASE WHEN YOU GET 40 OVER GOOD
SNOW COVER IN JANUARY.
A WEAK WAVE SATURDAY WILL BRING SLIGHT COOLING FOR THE WEEKEND...
THAT IS NOT DO FAR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WILL GO WITH EXTENDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW FOR SATURDAY AS THE WAVE
PASSES.
THE IDEA OF A POTENTIAL STORM FOR THE POST FORECAST PERIOD EARLY
NEXT WEEK IS STILL ALIVE ON MOST MODELS AS MODEST COOLING
CONTINUES...AND A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
USA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
FOG...FREEZING FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM THIS
MORNING OUT AHEAD OF A BAND OF SNOW CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
INTO EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. IFR AND LOCALLY LIFR VISIBILITY
AND CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. AS THE BAND OF SNOW HEADS EAST AND MID LEVELS SATURATE
BETTER...FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL SWITCH OVER THE LIGHT SNOW.
WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW...AND WILL FURTHER REDUCE VISIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON IN BLSN.
LOOK FOR MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW...AND MVFR VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE IN BLSN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
LOW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AVERAGING AROUND 700 TO 1500 AGL EVEN
AFTER 06Z.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SDZ066-
067-070-071.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ038-
039-050-052>054-057>060-063-064.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR SDZ040-
055-056.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ071-
072-097.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
313 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
WATCHING A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
BAND....AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE BLANKETS THE
FORECAST AREA. LOOKING AT RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN VERY SHORT LIVED AND IS NOT
EXPECTED CAUSE SIGNIFICANT ICING CONCERNS...HOWEVER THE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES MAY RESULT IN SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS
AND SIDEWALKS. THE CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY COVERS THE AREAS OF
GREATEST DENSE FOG CONCERNS...BUT ELSEWHERE...HALF MILE VISIBILITY
WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THIS MORNING. DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL LIKELY
STICK AROUND UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN THE DEEPER MOISTURE
DEVELOPS...ALLOWING ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION AND MORE STEADY SNOWFALL.
RAGGED SNOW BAND IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED OVER THE LAST HOUR OR
SO...AS 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST SD. VORT MAX OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA SHIFTS EASTWARD AND
WEAKENS THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH A SECOND MORE POTENT VORT MAX
FORMING IN EASTERN NEBRASKA THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWEST
IOWA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS TO OUR WEST WEAKENS IN A SIMILAR FASHION AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...THEN
INTENSIFIES ONCE MORE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST SD...NORTHWEST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT AS THE SNOW BAND APPROACHES THE I29 CORRIDOR
LATE MORNING...IT WEAKENS WHILE A SECOND BAND FORMS AHEAD OF IT NEAR
THE I29 CORRIDOR AND BEGINS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS HAS BEEN
SUPPORTED BY THE LAST SEVERAL HRRR AND RAP RUNS...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE OPERATIONAL GFS...REGIONAL GEM AND NAM. BOTH BANDS MERGE
OVER NORTHWEST IOWA/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND FINALLY
EXIT TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 1 3 INCH RANGE...WITH SOME AREAS IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD
AND THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR SEEING LOCALLY AROUND 4 INCHES. THE I29
CORRIDOR IS A TRICKIER FORECAST WITH THE DIFFICULTY IN PINPOINTING
WHERE THE INITIAL BAND DISSIPATES AND THE SECOND ONE DEVELOPS.
EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THIS AREA AND EAST INTO NORTHWEST IOWA/FAR
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. NORTHWEST IOWA WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN THE
EVENT THAT THE SECOND BAND OF SNOW INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY BEFORE
EXITING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN HIGHER AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST.
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING...THEN WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 30
MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT BLOWING SNOW TO BE A
CONCERN...BOTH DURING THE FALLING SNOW AND AFTER THE SNOW TAPERS
OFF. HAVE ADDED MENTION IN THE FORECAST WHERE GUSTS ARE STRONGER
THAN 25 KT. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD AS FAR AS
TIMING AND AREA. DID CONSIDER REMOVING MOODY AND PIPESTONE COUNTIES
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS EXPECTED HERE...BUT THEY ARE BORDERLINE
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING FOR NOW...ESPECIALLY WITH SOME
BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS.
SNOW ENDS THIS EVENING...BUT STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE IN THE
EVENING...AND GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S...AFTER NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES DURING
THE DAY TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE OVER ABOUT THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA AT DAYBREAK TUESDAY. A SLOW BUT STEADY DECREASE IS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY NORTHEAST TO MOSTLY CLEAR SOUTHWEST
BE EARLY EVENING. HAVE LINGERED A LITTLE MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW FAR EAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT NOT BEYOND...WITH WINDS VERY
SLOWLY DECREASING AND NOT TOO MUCH LOOSE NEW SNOW DO NOT EXPECT IT
TO BE A BIG PROBLEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...IN THE 20S.
WARM ADVECTION STARTS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS
EAST OVER THE AREA AND THE SURFACE RIDGE QUICKLY PASSES BY. WINDS
WILL TURN TO SOUTHWEST AND THE SOUTH WITH THE WARMING PICKING UP
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE GREATER
CLOUD COVER AGAIN NORTHEAST. THE AIR SEEMS TO DRY WITH TOO LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
AROUND 30 EAST TO NEAR 40 SOUTHWEST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BRING FURTHER WARMING AS THE UPPER RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE PLAINS AND BEGINS TO BE FLATTENED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 30S NORTHEAST TO THE 40S SOUTHWEST...AND EVEN THE
NORTHEAST SHOULD GET CLOSE TO 40 FRIDAY. WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY
WESTERLY WHICH IS WHAT USUALLY IS THE CASE WHEN YOU GET 40 OVER GOOD
SNOW COVER IN JANUARY.
A WEAK WAVE SATURDAY WILL BRING SLIGHT COOLING FOR THE WEEKEND...
THAT IS NOT DO FAR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WILL GO WITH EXTENDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW FOR SATURDAY AS THE WAVE
PASSES.
THE IDEA OF A POTENTIAL STORM FOR THE POST FORECAST PERIOD EARLY
NEXT WEEK IS STILL ALIVE ON MOST MODELS AS MODEST COOLING
CONTINUES...AND A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
USA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
FOG AND FREEZING FOG WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH 3AM...THEN A
CONCERN FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO MID-MORNING. SOUNDINGS AGAIN
SHOW THAT WE COULD SEE A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW BY MID-
MORNING...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWS AT FSD/SUX IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE PRIMARY SNOW BAND ARRIVES. SNOW IN HURON SHOULD
BEGIN BEFORE DAYBREAK...BUT TAPER OFF EARLY AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS BELOW 500 FT WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL THREE TAF SITES INTO
THE MORNING HOURS...SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY ARRIVE WITH THE BAND OF
SNOW. VISIBILITY MAY REMAIN LOW MVFR TO IFR...OCCASIONAL DROPS TO
1/2 MILE ARE POSSIBLE WITH FOG AND OR AFTERNOON SNOW.
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO
HINT AT BLOWING SNOW THROUGH SUNSET.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SDZ066-
067-070-071.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ038-
039-050-052>054-057>060-063-064.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR SDZ040-
055-056.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ071-
072-097.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
320 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
.DISCUSSION...FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THE WAY FOR TONIGHT. THIS
FEATURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SSW ACROSS
EARN TX. CLOUDS ARE ALREADY ON THE INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF IT. ONLY
APPRECIABLE PRECIP UPSTREAM IS LOCATED OVER ERN NEBRASKA WHERE THE
BEST PVA RESIDES.
FOR TONIGHT...SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
COMMENCE. LATEST HRRR INFO SUPPORTS SCT TO BKN SHOWER ACTIVITY
MAKING IT INTO FAR NWRN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE AS EARLY AS 01Z OR
02Z. THE FROPA WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT...TOWARD SUNRISE. POST
FRONTAL SECTOR DOES SHOW SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY UPSTREAM.
THUS...SHOWER CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
RAIN TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND .15 INCHES FAR NW...TO NEARLY
0.75 INCHES FAR SOUTHEAST.
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LAST APPRECIABLE LOBE OF PVA MAY INTERACT WITH
SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE OVER THE PLATEAU. BY THEN...FREEZING LEVELS
WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW MIX. NO
ACCUM IS EXPECTED THOUGH. PCLDY AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...MILDER WEATHER FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. THEN...SEASONAL TEMPS WILL RETURN
BEHIND THE FROPA AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
IN THE EXT FCST...NWLY FETCH WILL REMAIN FOR THU AND FRI WITH DRY
WEATHER AND TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL. A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR
NE THU NT BUT OTHER THAN A FEW ADDED CLDS...IT WILL REMAIN DRY.
WARMING TREND TO COMMENCE ON SATURDAY AS A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TEAMS UP WITH RISING HEIGHTS. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
RETURN MAY OCCUR AND WILL THEREFORE INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SHOWERS BY SUN NT AND MON.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 7 TO 10 KNOTS WITH AN
OCCASIONAL GUST TO 18 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
MIDDLE TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BRINGING WITH IT RAIN...HEAVY
AT TIMES FOR BNA. VISIBILITIES MAY DECREASE AT ALL SITES EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AS THE FRONT PASSES TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE FOR CKV BY 13Z, HOWEVER BNA AND CSV WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TO SEE PRECIP INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CIGS MAY REMAIN MVFR OR
IFR FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 43 45 28 42 25 / 80 60 10 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 38 44 26 41 24 / 60 10 10 0 10
CROSSVILLE 39 44 28 40 23 / 60 80 30 10 10
COLUMBIA 44 47 27 43 24 / 80 70 10 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 44 47 28 43 25 / 80 80 10 10 10
WAVERLY 39 45 26 42 24 / 50 20 10 0 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........11
LONG TERM..................21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
855 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT REACHING
THE COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER....AHEAD OF
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL ARRIVE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES SATURDAY
RESULTING IN MUCH MILDER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 840 PM EST TUESDAY...
COLD FRONT REMAINS RATHER SLUGGISH TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING WITH THE BOUNDARY RUNNING ALMOST PARALLEL
TO THE SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. LATEST
GUIDANCE FINALLY KICKS THE FRONT EAST TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHILE THE NARROW SWATH OF LIGHT RAIN TENDS TO DISSIPATE
OUT WEST BEFORE REDEVELOPING IN THE EAST. NEXT RIPPLE RIDING UP
THE BOUNDARY ALSO LOOKS TO ENHANCE COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH ONLY SPOTTY PRECIP REMAINING OUT WEST LATE.
THUS AFTER EARLY LIKELY/CAT POPS FAR WEST...HAVE FOCUS OF BETTER
COVERAGE SHIFTING INTO THE FAR SOUTH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND
EVENTUALLY IN THE EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH LAGGING COLD AIR
SHOULD ALLEVIATE THE POTENTIAL FOR TOO MUCH ICING WEST WHERE
EXPECT OUTSIDE THE DEEPER VALLEYS...TEMPS WONT FALL TO FREEZING
UNTIL ALMOST DAWN IN SPOTS. LATEST HRRR BASICALLY IN LINE WITH
THIS SCENARIO SO TRIMMED BACK ON ICING/SNOW SOME BUT COULD STILL
BE ENOUGH OF AN ISSUE ESPCLY FAR WEST LATE TO KEEP THE SPS GOING.
OTRW LOWS MOSTLY UPPER 20S WESTERN MOUNTAINS...TO LOW/MID 30S
BLUE RIDGE...TO POSSIBLY ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST GIVEN CLOUDS AND WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 345 PM EST TUESDAY...
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS ON OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP AND WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE WAXING AND WANING AS WEAK WAVES MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT...BUT EXPECT A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS. THEN AS
THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND CATCHES LINGERING
SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION AND UPSLOPE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...EXPECT
TO SEE PRECIPITATION CHANGE OVER TO SNOW/MIX. DURING THE
TRANSITION THERE LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE WITH VERY LIGHT QPF. WHILE THIS IS EXPECTED TO JUST BE A
TRACE EVENT AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED SINCE IT USUALLY DOES NOT TAKE
A LOT OF ICE TO MAKE THINGS SLICK. FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE NC
MOUNTAINS...BELIEVE THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ARRIVING AS THE
PRECIPITATION IS ENDING SO DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY
GLAZING.
LINGERING FRONTAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHSIDE AND UPSLOPE ALONG
THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL BE ENDING VERY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND IT SHOULD BASICALLY BE DRY WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR
LATE JANUARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EST TUESDAY...
ON THURSDAY THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS...AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROGRESSION THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN KEEPING THE WESTERN FLANK OF
THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATION WITH THE COASTAL LOW JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. OUR LATEST FORECAST WILL REFLECT THIS CONSENSUS.
LIKEWISE...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE
ALSO REMAINS OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND MILDER AS COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY BY A FEW
DEGREES AS S-SW FLOW AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA. INCREASING CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES
EASTWARD INTO PENNSYLVANIA...ALL WHILE ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION. THIS TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. FLURRIES WILL SPILL DOWNSTREAM INTO
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. THESE WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...BUT
WITH A TREND TOWARDS DECREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATES...AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION IS THE WESTERN PART OF GREENBRIER COUNTY AND
THE NORTHERN PART OF SUMMERS COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA. HERE...AMOUNTS
IN THE ONE TO TWO INCH RANGE WILL BE MORE COMMON. WINDS WILL BE ON
THE GUSTY SIDE...WITH SOME OF THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS APPROACHING 45
MPH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT...AT BEST SOME FLURRIES WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN
GREENBRIER COUNTY AS WHAT WERE STRONG NORTHWEST UPSLOPE WINDS...SLOW
IN SPEED AND BACK MORE TO MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT. DRIER AIR
WILL ALSO BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA WITH THE APPROACH OF HIGH
PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST TUESDAY...
SATURDAY INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY...THE SYNOPTIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
TRANSITIONS INTO ONE OF ZONAL FLOW TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP WEATHER SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING 850 MB TEMPERATURES. A DRY WEEKEND IS FORECAST
ALONG WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SOME DISTINCT
DIFFERENCES...BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO
SYSTEMS TO POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION...OR APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND STALL JUST SHY OF THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ALSO...A CLOSED UPPER LOW IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH LIGHT RAIN WITHIN ITS WARM SECTOR REACHING THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL AVERAGE TEN
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 600 PM EST TUESDAY...
BANDS OF PRE-FRONTAL LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH BEST COVERAGE LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER
THE MOUNTAINS EARLY ON BEFORE REDEVELOPING OVER EASTERN SITES
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE RIDES UP THE FRONT. THIS WILL
ONLY ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION AND SPREAD GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES. BEHIND THE FRONT KBLF/KLWB AND
PERHAPS KBCB WILL GET INTO SOME UPSLOPE IFR CIGS WITH SOME
DRIZZLE...AND AS TEMPERATURES FALL THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE PRECIPITATION GOES OVER TO LIGHT SNOW.
SITES FURTHER EAST WILL HAVE NO PTYPE ISSUES BUT WILL SEE CIGS
LOWER INTO MVFR OVERNIGHT AS RAINFALL INCREASES IN COVERAGE LATE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THE LOW
LEVEL JET REMAINS STRONG THIS EVENING SO WILL RETAIN SPEED WIND
SHEAR FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SHOULD SEE SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST
DURING WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW TURNS NW AND DRIER AIR ALOFT FILTERS
EAST. HOWEVER MAY TAKE UNTIL MIDDAY OR LONGER TO BECOME VFR AROUND
KDAN WITH EXPECT VFR FOR KROA/KLYH/KDAN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY SCATTERING OUT FROM KBCB EAST BY AFTERNOON.
WEAK COLD ADVECTION LIKELY TO KEEP KBLF/KLWB SUB-VFR WITH PERHAPS
IFR AT TIMES AROUND KBLF GIVEN UPSLOPE FLOW.
THESE LOWER CIGS MAY LINGER AT KBLF/KLWB INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE GRADUAL DRYING TAKES SHAPE ALLOWING ALL OTHER LOCATIONS TO
REMAIN PRIMARILY VFR OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN MORE IN THE WAY
OF WIDESPREAD VFR AT ALL SITES.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL SWING A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN PERIODS OF -SHSN
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER VFR EXPECTED FROM THE
BLUE RIDGE EAST WHERE WILL REMAIN UNDER DOWNSLOPING FLOW. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/MBS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JH/MBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
259 PM PST MON JAN 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH BY THE REGION TONIGHT AND SPREAD
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL LARGELY BE DRY
EXCEPT FOR LATE IN THE DAY WHEN A WARM FRONTAL RAIN BAND WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. A MOIST COLD FRONT WILL SAG
SOUTHEAST AND BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PUSH OF RAIN FRIDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL LOWER DOWN TO THE CASCADE PASSES FRIDAY EVENING AND
LOWER FURTHER TO ABOUT THE 2000 FOOT ELEVATION BY SUNDAY. SHOWERS
OVER THE WEEKEND COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE
FOOTHILLS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MAINLY FINE DAY ACROSS
THE DISTRICT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MAKES A SHORT APPEARANCE. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA AND SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN IN TIME FOR...OR JUST AT THE
END OF THE MORNING COMMUTE. WILL SEE SOME RESIDUAL RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HAD PREVIOUSLY INDICATED A COLD
FRONT WOULD CROSS TUESDAY EVENING BUT TODAY`S RUNS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS IT WILL HAVE SPLIT APART AND DISSIPATED BY THE
TIME IT REACHES THE COAST. AS SUCH...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT COULD NOT PULL THEM COMPLETELY AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE
WILL DESCEND SOUTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AND BEGIN TO BRING
ANOTHER WARM FRONTAL BAND TO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA BY
LATE IN THE DAY. MODELS HAVE SOMEWHAT SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE
INITIAL APPROACH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE
FORECAST WHERE AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL SET UP OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA WEDNESDAY AND THEN TRANSIT ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE NORTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA MOUNTAINS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAD BEEN STALLING THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN OREGON FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY...BUT
THE 12Z GFS LED THE WAY THEN FOLLOWED BY THE 12Z ECMWF OF A FASTER
TRANSIT OF THE ATMOS RIVER SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THEY ARE NOW
SHOWING A SHORT WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY EARLY THURSDAY
WITH SOME WESTERLY JET ENHANCEMENT TO PUSH THE FLOW FROM MORE
WESTERLY THAN SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL STILL SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN
DURING THE 24 HOUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD WITH
UPWARDS OF AN INCH AN A HALF POSSIBLE OVER FAR SW WASHINGTON IN A 6
HOUR PERIOD FOLLOWED BY 2-2.5 INCHES FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COAST RANGE AND ALSO THE WASHINGTON CASCADES.
THE PRIMARY RAIN AXIS APPEARS TO SHIFT TO SOUTHERN OREGON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL BRING ABOUT A 6-8 HOUR BREAK IN THE ACTION.
ANOTHER BURST OF WARM FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND COULD BRING THE PRIMARY PUSH OF RAIN TO THE SOUTH
VALLEY AND CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT EXITS OREGON AND INTO
CALIFORNIA. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN RATHER ELEVATED DURING THE BULK
OF THE RAINS BUT WILL START TO DROP NEAR PASS LEVELS FOR FRIDAY.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO CATCH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT THE PASSES
BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW CENTER WILL FILL AND
DRIFT INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS WILL BE THE NORM BUT SOME
AREAS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PICK UP PERIODS WITH SEVERAL DRY HOURS.
THE COLD AIR MASS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS AND PUSH SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 2000 FEET. COULD PICK UP
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
FAR MORE LIMITED. /JBONK
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME LOWER VFR
CIGS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND MOVING NORTHEAST. WILL SEE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS FILL IN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN
BEGINNING ALONG THE COAST AFTER 09Z AND SPREADING INLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY. WIND OUT OF THE EAST...GUSTY ON
EAST APPROACHES. POSSIBLY SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -RA STARTING
TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...BENIGN CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS 7 TO 9 FT. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BEGIN TO PICK UP LATER TODAY...WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND SEAS INCREASING ABOVE 10 FT LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING
TO INCREASE INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS ON TUESDAY.
SHOULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN WINDS TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THEY
RAMP UP FURTHER TUE NIGHT WITH SOLID GALES EXPECTED WED AND WED
EVENING. HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE WATERS BEYOND 10 NM ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF STORM FORCE GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE. WILL LIKELY ALSO SEE GALES IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS
BUT NOT UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A GALE WATCH
THERE. SEAS RISE TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 20 FT STARTING LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. PAST STUDIES OF WINDS AND SEAS AT THE
LOCAL BUOYS HAVE FOUND THAT WITH STRONG GALES...SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE 20 TO 25 FT AND AT THIS POINT THE FORECAST IS RIGHT IN THAT
ZONE.
THERE LOOKS TO BE A BREAK THU AND FRI BUT SOME INDICATION OF
POSSIBLE LOW END GALES THOSE DAYS AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS POINT AS GUIDANCE KEEPS SHIFTING. BOWEN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM
PST TUESDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 6 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD
TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM PST TUESDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6
AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE
HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
222 PM PST MON JAN 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the Inland Northwest through tonight,
bringing dry conditions with areas of low clouds and fog. An
active weather pattern returns mid week. A weak system Tuesday
into Tuesday night brings a chance of light valley rain and
mountain snow. A wetter and warmer storm tracks through on
Thursday bringing rain and high mountain snow. Temperatures then
cool down towards seasonal normals next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday night...
...Pockets of freezing rain possible Cascade valleys Tuesday
morning...
Tonight/Tomorrow: An upper ridge over the region tonight will
move east allowing a more active weather pattern to set up
beginning tomorrow. Tonight will remain quiet with areas of low
clouds and fog...as well as a chance for flurries out of the
stratus over the northern valleys where the stratus layer is
deeper. The first system weakens as it encounters the ridge on
Tuesday...and tracks into British Columbia. However this system
does drag a weak subtropical moisture plume across which will
bring with it a chance for mostly light rain for the valleys with
snow in the mountains.
Tricky part of the forecast is along the East Slopes of the
Cascades. Models show a warm layer between 750-850mb warming to
1-3C Tuesday morning over Chelan county while elevations below
4000 feet remain near to below freezing. This is a good pattern
for freezing rain. However the timing of when precip develops will
be important as warmer road temps in the late morning and
afternoon will go against freezing rain when surface temps by this
time warm into the lower to mid 30s. Thus right now the best
chance for freezing rain will be below 4000 feet in western Chelan
county, including Stehekin, Plain, and Leavenworth. North of Lake
Chelan guidance is more conflicted with the NAM supporting a
chance for freezing rain in the Methow Valley while the GFS,
ECMWF, and Canadian support snow. Forecast at this time leans
towards the model consensus with snow for the Methow Valley. Given
the short duration of this event and some timing
uncertainty...have opted to not issue any winter highlights at
this time but this will continue to be monitored closely since any
amount of freezing rain can make for very slick conditions.
Tuesday night through Wednesday night: Weak system exits Tuesday
night before a much wetter and milder system enters Wednesday
night. This one reaches the Cascades and NE Washington into the N
Idaho Panhandle Wednesday night. Snow levels rise to 6000-7000
feet except locally 4000-5000 feet near the Canadian border
supporting rain in the valleys...and a mix of rain and snow in the
mountains. JW
Thursday through Monday...Warm, Wet, and Windy Thursday and Friday
as a baroclinic band fed with a well maintained tap into
subtropical moisture pushes through Eastern Washington and
Northern Idaho. It is moving rather quickly so despite the
moderate to heavy rain and higher mountain snow fall intensity
produced the amount of time it occurs will be limited and thus the
amounts of rain and snow will not as problematic as they could be.
It does need to be noted that there will be snowmelt brought about
by it all which will result in river rises, especially locations
in the Washington and Idaho Palouse like Paradise Creek and the
Palouse River near Potlatch and Pullman. The back edge of the
baroclinic band passes as a very weak cold front late Thursday
night and early Friday with very little cooling apparent, but just
enough to continue to have Thursday stand out as the warmest day
of the seven day forecast. A second shortwave runs up the backside
of the baroclinic band and pushes through Friday and slows the
exit of the moisture feed from the area a bit...but it does allow
for slight cooling and some lowering of snow levels Friday.
Saturday through Monday the forecast area remains on the north
side of the jet stream and under the influence of the cold
conditionally unstable air-mass with various minor shortwave
disturbances moving through the flow which pretty much results in
a good snow- shadow encompassing much of the lowland and valley
locations which leaves them dry and confines the pops and minor
mentions of snow showers to mountain locations. /Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: High pressure is strengthening over the region leading
to a lowering inversion locking moist air in the boundary layer.
This has resulted in widespread stratus especially across the
northern half of Washington and the northern Idaho Panhandle. Of
all the forecasts, the only ones which will see VFR conditions
will be PUW and LWS. These locations will likely maintain that as
well as winds will turn increasingly E/SE overnight. Otherwise the
least confident forecasts will be for GEG SFF and COE. This is
because the clearing line is only 5-10 miles south. Given the
close proximity of the clearing, these sites could go from LIFR
with dense fog to VFR conditions very quickly. Then again given
the slack winds, it could persist through most of the day. In
either case, we`d be confident it would fill back in rapidly
overnight with IFR conditions expected. More confident that the
low clouds, stratus and IFR conditions will persist through most
of the day at EAT and MWH based on satellite trends and light wind
potential. fx
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 29 40 35 43 37 48 / 10 40 50 10 40 80
Coeur d`Alene 29 41 35 42 36 46 / 10 30 50 20 30 80
Pullman 31 42 36 45 36 50 / 0 20 40 10 20 80
Lewiston 34 46 38 50 37 56 / 0 10 30 10 10 50
Colville 29 38 32 38 36 42 / 10 50 40 20 60 80
Sandpoint 30 37 34 39 35 43 / 10 40 60 30 50 90
Kellogg 29 40 34 40 34 44 / 10 20 50 20 20 80
Moses Lake 30 38 34 44 39 51 / 10 50 30 10 50 70
Wenatchee 31 36 33 41 36 45 / 10 50 30 10 70 70
Omak 30 35 32 37 35 40 / 10 50 30 10 80 90
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
222 PM PST MON JAN 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the Inland Northwest through tonight,
bringing dry conditions with areas of low clouds and fog. An
active weather pattern returns mid week. A weak system Tuesday
into Tuesday night brings a chance of light valley rain and
mountain snow. A wetter and warmer storm tracks through on
Thursday bringing rain and high mountain snow. Temperatures then
cool down towards seasonal normals next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday night...
...Pockets of freezing rain possible Cascade valleys Tuesday
morning...
Tonight/Tomorrow: An upper ridge over the region tonight will
move east allowing a more active weather pattern to set up
beginning tomorrow. Tonight will remain quiet with areas of low
clouds and fog...as well as a chance for flurries out of the
stratus over the northern valleys where the stratus layer is
deeper. The first system weakens as it encounters the ridge on
Tuesday...and tracks into British Columbia. However this system
does drag a weak subtropical moisture plume across which will
bring with it a chance for mostly light rain for the valleys with
snow in the mountains.
Tricky part of the forecast is along the East Slopes of the
Cascades. Models show a warm layer between 750-850mb warming to
1-3C Tuesday morning over Chelan county while elevations below
4000 feet remain near to below freezing. This is a good pattern
for freezing rain. However the timing of when precip develops will
be important as warmer road temps in the late morning and
afternoon will go against freezing rain when surface temps by this
time warm into the lower to mid 30s. Thus right now the best
chance for freezing rain will be below 4000 feet in western Chelan
county, including Stehekin, Plain, and Leavenworth. North of Lake
Chelan guidance is more conflicted with the NAM supporting a
chance for freezing rain in the Methow Valley while the GFS,
ECMWF, and Canadian support snow. Forecast at this time leans
towards the model consensus with snow for the Methow Valley. Given
the short duration of this event and some timing
uncertainty...have opted to not issue any winter highlights at
this time but this will continue to be monitored closely since any
amount of freezing rain can make for very slick conditions.
Tuesday night through Wednesday night: Weak system exits Tuesday
night before a much wetter and milder system enters Wednesday
night. This one reaches the Cascades and NE Washington into the N
Idaho Panhandle Wednesday night. Snow levels rise to 6000-7000
feet except locally 4000-5000 feet near the Canadian border
supporting rain in the valleys...and a mix of rain and snow in the
mountains. JW
Thursday through Monday...Warm, Wet, and Windy Thursday and Friday
as a baroclinic band fed with a well maintained tap into
subtropical moisture pushes through Eastern Washington and
Northern Idaho. It is moving rather quickly so despite the
moderate to heavy rain and higher mountain snow fall intensity
produced the amount of time it occurs will be limited and thus the
amounts of rain and snow will not as problematic as they could be.
It does need to be noted that there will be snowmelt brought about
by it all which will result in river rises, especially locations
in the Washington and Idaho Palouse like Paradise Creek and the
Palouse River near Potlatch and Pullman. The back edge of the
baroclinic band passes as a very weak cold front late Thursday
night and early Friday with very little cooling apparent, but just
enough to continue to have Thursday stand out as the warmest day
of the seven day forecast. A second shortwave runs up the backside
of the baroclinic band and pushes through Friday and slows the
exit of the moisture feed from the area a bit...but it does allow
for slight cooling and some lowering of snow levels Friday.
Saturday through Monday the forecast area remains on the north
side of the jet stream and under the influence of the cold
conditionally unstable air-mass with various minor shortwave
disturbances moving through the flow which pretty much results in
a good snow- shadow encompassing much of the lowland and valley
locations which leaves them dry and confines the pops and minor
mentions of snow showers to mountain locations. /Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: High pressure is strengthening over the region leading
to a lowering inversion locking moist air in the boundary layer.
This has resulted in widespread stratus especially across the
northern half of Washington and the northern Idaho Panhandle. Of
all the forecasts, the only ones which will see VFR conditions
will be PUW and LWS. These locations will likely maintain that as
well as winds will turn increasingly E/SE overnight. Otherwise the
least confident forecasts will be for GEG SFF and COE. This is
because the clearing line is only 5-10 miles south. Given the
close proximity of the clearing, these sites could go from LIFR
with dense fog to VFR conditions very quickly. Then again given
the slack winds, it could persist through most of the day. In
either case, we`d be confident it would fill back in rapidly
overnight with IFR conditions expected. More confident that the
low clouds, stratus and IFR conditions will persist through most
of the day at EAT and MWH based on satellite trends and light wind
potential. fx
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 29 40 35 43 37 48 / 10 40 50 10 40 80
Coeur d`Alene 29 41 35 42 36 46 / 10 30 50 20 30 80
Pullman 31 42 36 45 36 50 / 0 20 40 10 20 80
Lewiston 34 46 38 50 37 56 / 0 10 30 10 10 50
Colville 29 38 32 38 36 42 / 10 50 40 20 60 80
Sandpoint 30 37 34 39 35 43 / 10 40 60 30 50 90
Kellogg 29 40 34 40 34 44 / 10 20 50 20 20 80
Moses Lake 30 38 34 44 39 51 / 10 50 30 10 50 70
Wenatchee 31 36 33 41 36 45 / 10 50 30 10 70 70
Omak 30 35 32 37 35 40 / 10 50 30 10 80 90
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
222 PM PST MON JAN 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the Inland Northwest through tonight,
bringing dry conditions with areas of low clouds and fog. An
active weather pattern returns mid week. A weak system Tuesday
into Tuesday night brings a chance of light valley rain and
mountain snow. A wetter and warmer storm tracks through on
Thursday bringing rain and high mountain snow. Temperatures then
cool down towards seasonal normals next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday night...
...Pockets of freezing rain possible Cascade valleys Tuesday
morning...
Tonight/Tomorrow: An upper ridge over the region tonight will
move east allowing a more active weather pattern to set up
beginning tomorrow. Tonight will remain quiet with areas of low
clouds and fog...as well as a chance for flurries out of the
stratus over the northern valleys where the stratus layer is
deeper. The first system weakens as it encounters the ridge on
Tuesday...and tracks into British Columbia. However this system
does drag a weak subtropical moisture plume across which will
bring with it a chance for mostly light rain for the valleys with
snow in the mountains.
Tricky part of the forecast is along the East Slopes of the
Cascades. Models show a warm layer between 750-850mb warming to
1-3C Tuesday morning over Chelan county while elevations below
4000 feet remain near to below freezing. This is a good pattern
for freezing rain. However the timing of when precip develops will
be important as warmer road temps in the late morning and
afternoon will go against freezing rain when surface temps by this
time warm into the lower to mid 30s. Thus right now the best
chance for freezing rain will be below 4000 feet in western Chelan
county, including Stehekin, Plain, and Leavenworth. North of Lake
Chelan guidance is more conflicted with the NAM supporting a
chance for freezing rain in the Methow Valley while the GFS,
ECMWF, and Canadian support snow. Forecast at this time leans
towards the model consensus with snow for the Methow Valley. Given
the short duration of this event and some timing
uncertainty...have opted to not issue any winter highlights at
this time but this will continue to be monitored closely since any
amount of freezing rain can make for very slick conditions.
Tuesday night through Wednesday night: Weak system exits Tuesday
night before a much wetter and milder system enters Wednesday
night. This one reaches the Cascades and NE Washington into the N
Idaho Panhandle Wednesday night. Snow levels rise to 6000-7000
feet except locally 4000-5000 feet near the Canadian border
supporting rain in the valleys...and a mix of rain and snow in the
mountains. JW
Thursday through Monday...Warm, Wet, and Windy Thursday and Friday
as a baroclinic band fed with a well maintained tap into
subtropical moisture pushes through Eastern Washington and
Northern Idaho. It is moving rather quickly so despite the
moderate to heavy rain and higher mountain snow fall intensity
produced the amount of time it occurs will be limited and thus the
amounts of rain and snow will not as problematic as they could be.
It does need to be noted that there will be snowmelt brought about
by it all which will result in river rises, especially locations
in the Washington and Idaho Palouse like Paradise Creek and the
Palouse River near Potlatch and Pullman. The back edge of the
baroclinic band passes as a very weak cold front late Thursday
night and early Friday with very little cooling apparent, but just
enough to continue to have Thursday stand out as the warmest day
of the seven day forecast. A second shortwave runs up the backside
of the baroclinic band and pushes through Friday and slows the
exit of the moisture feed from the area a bit...but it does allow
for slight cooling and some lowering of snow levels Friday.
Saturday through Monday the forecast area remains on the north
side of the jet stream and under the influence of the cold
conditionally unstable air-mass with various minor shortwave
disturbances moving through the flow which pretty much results in
a good snow- shadow encompassing much of the lowland and valley
locations which leaves them dry and confines the pops and minor
mentions of snow showers to mountain locations. /Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: High pressure is strengthening over the region leading
to a lowering inversion locking moist air in the boundary layer.
This has resulted in widespread stratus especially across the
northern half of Washington and the northern Idaho Panhandle. Of
all the forecasts, the only ones which will see VFR conditions
will be PUW and LWS. These locations will likely maintain that as
well as winds will turn increasingly E/SE overnight. Otherwise the
least confident forecasts will be for GEG SFF and COE. This is
because the clearing line is only 5-10 miles south. Given the
close proximity of the clearing, these sites could go from LIFR
with dense fog to VFR conditions very quickly. Then again given
the slack winds, it could persist through most of the day. In
either case, we`d be confident it would fill back in rapidly
overnight with IFR conditions expected. More confident that the
low clouds, stratus and IFR conditions will persist through most
of the day at EAT and MWH based on satellite trends and light wind
potential. fx
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 29 40 35 43 37 48 / 10 40 50 10 40 80
Coeur d`Alene 29 41 35 42 36 46 / 10 30 50 20 30 80
Pullman 31 42 36 45 36 50 / 0 20 40 10 20 80
Lewiston 34 46 38 50 37 56 / 0 10 30 10 10 50
Colville 29 38 32 38 36 42 / 10 50 40 20 60 80
Sandpoint 30 37 34 39 35 43 / 10 40 60 30 50 90
Kellogg 29 40 34 40 34 44 / 10 20 50 20 20 80
Moses Lake 30 38 34 44 39 51 / 10 50 30 10 50 70
Wenatchee 31 36 33 41 36 45 / 10 50 30 10 70 70
Omak 30 35 32 37 35 40 / 10 50 30 10 80 90
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
222 PM PST MON JAN 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the Inland Northwest through tonight,
bringing dry conditions with areas of low clouds and fog. An
active weather pattern returns mid week. A weak system Tuesday
into Tuesday night brings a chance of light valley rain and
mountain snow. A wetter and warmer storm tracks through on
Thursday bringing rain and high mountain snow. Temperatures then
cool down towards seasonal normals next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday night...
...Pockets of freezing rain possible Cascade valleys Tuesday
morning...
Tonight/Tomorrow: An upper ridge over the region tonight will
move east allowing a more active weather pattern to set up
beginning tomorrow. Tonight will remain quiet with areas of low
clouds and fog...as well as a chance for flurries out of the
stratus over the northern valleys where the stratus layer is
deeper. The first system weakens as it encounters the ridge on
Tuesday...and tracks into British Columbia. However this system
does drag a weak subtropical moisture plume across which will
bring with it a chance for mostly light rain for the valleys with
snow in the mountains.
Tricky part of the forecast is along the East Slopes of the
Cascades. Models show a warm layer between 750-850mb warming to
1-3C Tuesday morning over Chelan county while elevations below
4000 feet remain near to below freezing. This is a good pattern
for freezing rain. However the timing of when precip develops will
be important as warmer road temps in the late morning and
afternoon will go against freezing rain when surface temps by this
time warm into the lower to mid 30s. Thus right now the best
chance for freezing rain will be below 4000 feet in western Chelan
county, including Stehekin, Plain, and Leavenworth. North of Lake
Chelan guidance is more conflicted with the NAM supporting a
chance for freezing rain in the Methow Valley while the GFS,
ECMWF, and Canadian support snow. Forecast at this time leans
towards the model consensus with snow for the Methow Valley. Given
the short duration of this event and some timing
uncertainty...have opted to not issue any winter highlights at
this time but this will continue to be monitored closely since any
amount of freezing rain can make for very slick conditions.
Tuesday night through Wednesday night: Weak system exits Tuesday
night before a much wetter and milder system enters Wednesday
night. This one reaches the Cascades and NE Washington into the N
Idaho Panhandle Wednesday night. Snow levels rise to 6000-7000
feet except locally 4000-5000 feet near the Canadian border
supporting rain in the valleys...and a mix of rain and snow in the
mountains. JW
Thursday through Monday...Warm, Wet, and Windy Thursday and Friday
as a baroclinic band fed with a well maintained tap into
subtropical moisture pushes through Eastern Washington and
Northern Idaho. It is moving rather quickly so despite the
moderate to heavy rain and higher mountain snow fall intensity
produced the amount of time it occurs will be limited and thus the
amounts of rain and snow will not as problematic as they could be.
It does need to be noted that there will be snowmelt brought about
by it all which will result in river rises, especially locations
in the Washington and Idaho Palouse like Paradise Creek and the
Palouse River near Potlatch and Pullman. The back edge of the
baroclinic band passes as a very weak cold front late Thursday
night and early Friday with very little cooling apparent, but just
enough to continue to have Thursday stand out as the warmest day
of the seven day forecast. A second shortwave runs up the backside
of the baroclinic band and pushes through Friday and slows the
exit of the moisture feed from the area a bit...but it does allow
for slight cooling and some lowering of snow levels Friday.
Saturday through Monday the forecast area remains on the north
side of the jet stream and under the influence of the cold
conditionally unstable air-mass with various minor shortwave
disturbances moving through the flow which pretty much results in
a good snow- shadow encompassing much of the lowland and valley
locations which leaves them dry and confines the pops and minor
mentions of snow showers to mountain locations. /Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: High pressure is strengthening over the region leading
to a lowering inversion locking moist air in the boundary layer.
This has resulted in widespread stratus especially across the
northern half of Washington and the northern Idaho Panhandle. Of
all the forecasts, the only ones which will see VFR conditions
will be PUW and LWS. These locations will likely maintain that as
well as winds will turn increasingly E/SE overnight. Otherwise the
least confident forecasts will be for GEG SFF and COE. This is
because the clearing line is only 5-10 miles south. Given the
close proximity of the clearing, these sites could go from LIFR
with dense fog to VFR conditions very quickly. Then again given
the slack winds, it could persist through most of the day. In
either case, we`d be confident it would fill back in rapidly
overnight with IFR conditions expected. More confident that the
low clouds, stratus and IFR conditions will persist through most
of the day at EAT and MWH based on satellite trends and light wind
potential. fx
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 29 40 35 43 37 48 / 10 40 50 10 40 80
Coeur d`Alene 29 41 35 42 36 46 / 10 30 50 20 30 80
Pullman 31 42 36 45 36 50 / 0 20 40 10 20 80
Lewiston 34 46 38 50 37 56 / 0 10 30 10 10 50
Colville 29 38 32 38 36 42 / 10 50 40 20 60 80
Sandpoint 30 37 34 39 35 43 / 10 40 60 30 50 90
Kellogg 29 40 34 40 34 44 / 10 20 50 20 20 80
Moses Lake 30 38 34 44 39 51 / 10 50 30 10 50 70
Wenatchee 31 36 33 41 36 45 / 10 50 30 10 70 70
Omak 30 35 32 37 35 40 / 10 50 30 10 80 90
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
222 PM PST MON JAN 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the Inland Northwest through tonight,
bringing dry conditions with areas of low clouds and fog. An
active weather pattern returns mid week. A weak system Tuesday
into Tuesday night brings a chance of light valley rain and
mountain snow. A wetter and warmer storm tracks through on
Thursday bringing rain and high mountain snow. Temperatures then
cool down towards seasonal normals next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday night...
...Pockets of freezing rain possible Cascade valleys Tuesday
morning...
Tonight/Tomorrow: An upper ridge over the region tonight will
move east allowing a more active weather pattern to set up
beginning tomorrow. Tonight will remain quiet with areas of low
clouds and fog...as well as a chance for flurries out of the
stratus over the northern valleys where the stratus layer is
deeper. The first system weakens as it encounters the ridge on
Tuesday...and tracks into British Columbia. However this system
does drag a weak subtropical moisture plume across which will
bring with it a chance for mostly light rain for the valleys with
snow in the mountains.
Tricky part of the forecast is along the East Slopes of the
Cascades. Models show a warm layer between 750-850mb warming to
1-3C Tuesday morning over Chelan county while elevations below
4000 feet remain near to below freezing. This is a good pattern
for freezing rain. However the timing of when precip develops will
be important as warmer road temps in the late morning and
afternoon will go against freezing rain when surface temps by this
time warm into the lower to mid 30s. Thus right now the best
chance for freezing rain will be below 4000 feet in western Chelan
county, including Stehekin, Plain, and Leavenworth. North of Lake
Chelan guidance is more conflicted with the NAM supporting a
chance for freezing rain in the Methow Valley while the GFS,
ECMWF, and Canadian support snow. Forecast at this time leans
towards the model consensus with snow for the Methow Valley. Given
the short duration of this event and some timing
uncertainty...have opted to not issue any winter highlights at
this time but this will continue to be monitored closely since any
amount of freezing rain can make for very slick conditions.
Tuesday night through Wednesday night: Weak system exits Tuesday
night before a much wetter and milder system enters Wednesday
night. This one reaches the Cascades and NE Washington into the N
Idaho Panhandle Wednesday night. Snow levels rise to 6000-7000
feet except locally 4000-5000 feet near the Canadian border
supporting rain in the valleys...and a mix of rain and snow in the
mountains. JW
Thursday through Monday...Warm, Wet, and Windy Thursday and Friday
as a baroclinic band fed with a well maintained tap into
subtropical moisture pushes through Eastern Washington and
Northern Idaho. It is moving rather quickly so despite the
moderate to heavy rain and higher mountain snow fall intensity
produced the amount of time it occurs will be limited and thus the
amounts of rain and snow will not as problematic as they could be.
It does need to be noted that there will be snowmelt brought about
by it all which will result in river rises, especially locations
in the Washington and Idaho Palouse like Paradise Creek and the
Palouse River near Potlatch and Pullman. The back edge of the
baroclinic band passes as a very weak cold front late Thursday
night and early Friday with very little cooling apparent, but just
enough to continue to have Thursday stand out as the warmest day
of the seven day forecast. A second shortwave runs up the backside
of the baroclinic band and pushes through Friday and slows the
exit of the moisture feed from the area a bit...but it does allow
for slight cooling and some lowering of snow levels Friday.
Saturday through Monday the forecast area remains on the north
side of the jet stream and under the influence of the cold
conditionally unstable air-mass with various minor shortwave
disturbances moving through the flow which pretty much results in
a good snow- shadow encompassing much of the lowland and valley
locations which leaves them dry and confines the pops and minor
mentions of snow showers to mountain locations. /Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: High pressure is strengthening over the region leading
to a lowering inversion locking moist air in the boundary layer.
This has resulted in widespread stratus especially across the
northern half of Washington and the northern Idaho Panhandle. Of
all the forecasts, the only ones which will see VFR conditions
will be PUW and LWS. These locations will likely maintain that as
well as winds will turn increasingly E/SE overnight. Otherwise the
least confident forecasts will be for GEG SFF and COE. This is
because the clearing line is only 5-10 miles south. Given the
close proximity of the clearing, these sites could go from LIFR
with dense fog to VFR conditions very quickly. Then again given
the slack winds, it could persist through most of the day. In
either case, we`d be confident it would fill back in rapidly
overnight with IFR conditions expected. More confident that the
low clouds, stratus and IFR conditions will persist through most
of the day at EAT and MWH based on satellite trends and light wind
potential. fx
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 29 40 35 43 37 48 / 10 40 50 10 40 80
Coeur d`Alene 29 41 35 42 36 46 / 10 30 50 20 30 80
Pullman 31 42 36 45 36 50 / 0 20 40 10 20 80
Lewiston 34 46 38 50 37 56 / 0 10 30 10 10 50
Colville 29 38 32 38 36 42 / 10 50 40 20 60 80
Sandpoint 30 37 34 39 35 43 / 10 40 60 30 50 90
Kellogg 29 40 34 40 34 44 / 10 20 50 20 20 80
Moses Lake 30 38 34 44 39 51 / 10 50 30 10 50 70
Wenatchee 31 36 33 41 36 45 / 10 50 30 10 70 70
Omak 30 35 32 37 35 40 / 10 50 30 10 80 90
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1011 AM PST MON JAN 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the Inland Northwest through tonight,
bringing dry conditions with areas of low clouds and fog. An
active weather pattern returns mid week. A weak system Tuesday
into Tuesday night brings a chance of light valley rain and
mountain snow. A wetter and warmer storm tracks through on
Thursday bringing rain and high mountain snow. Temperatures then
cool down towards seasonal normals next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today...Upper level high pressure will persist over the
Inland Northwest through the entire day resulting in generally dry
and benign conditions. As is usually the case in this scenario
during late January, the atmosphere will be ripe for widespread
stratus and fog. The latest surface analysis shows very little
pressure gradient over the region and thus very little wind.
Meanwhile the latest satellite product shows widespread low clouds
and fog covering just about every valley location north of a line
from Royal City to Davenport to Coeur d`Alene. This included
widespread dense fog extending from the Highway 2 corridor through
the northern Columbia Basin east to Spokane and Coeur d`Alene.
Based on the latest HRRR data, sounding data, and little if any
potential for significant winds, we will extend the dense fog
advisory through early afternoon, and even this might not be long
enough. Needless to say locations which see little if any sun
today will see only minimal temperature gains through the
remainder of the day.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: High pressure is strengthening over the region leading
to a lowering inversion locking moist air in the boundary layer.
This has resulted in widespread stratus especially across the
northern half of Washington and the northern Idaho Panhandle. Of
all the forecasts, the only ones which will see VFR conditions
will be PUW and LWS. These locations will likely maintain that as
well as winds will turn increasingly E/SE overnight. Otherwise the
least confident forecasts will be for GEG SFF and COE. This is
because the clearing line is only 5-10 miles south. Given the
close proximity of the clearing, these sites could go from LIFR
with dense fog to VFR conditions very quickly. Then again given
the slack winds, it could persist through most of the day. In
either case, we`d be confident it would fill back in rapidly
overnight with IFR conditions expected. More confident that the
low clouds, stratus and IFR conditions will persist through most
of the day at EAT and MWH based on satellite trends and light wind
potential. fx
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 35 29 39 34 45 37 / 0 10 10 50 10 30
Coeur d`Alene 34 29 38 34 44 36 / 10 10 10 50 20 20
Pullman 43 30 43 36 47 37 / 10 0 10 30 10 10
Lewiston 46 33 46 37 51 40 / 10 0 10 20 10 10
Colville 35 27 36 33 41 36 / 10 10 20 40 20 60
Sandpoint 38 29 36 33 41 35 / 10 10 20 60 30 40
Kellogg 35 29 37 33 40 35 / 10 10 10 40 20 20
Moses Lake 40 30 41 33 44 36 / 10 10 20 40 10 40
Wenatchee 36 32 37 34 40 36 / 10 10 20 30 10 60
Omak 34 28 35 32 38 34 / 10 10 20 30 10 70
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for Coeur
d`Alene Area.
WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for Spokane
Area-Upper Columbia Basin.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
942 AM PST MON JAN 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
GIVE A NICE AFTERNOON TO WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY. A WEAKENING
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. EXPECT WET
AND LOCALLY WINDY PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS NEAR 567
DECAMETERS WILL PASS DIRECTLY OVER WRN WA THIS AFTN. THE 12Z KUIL
SOUNDING STILL SHOWED A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BENEATH A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 7500 FT MSL. HAS ACTUALLY BEEN SOME
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN FROM SHELTON WEST TO THE COAST THIS
MORNING. THE HRRR MODEL IS THE ONLY ONE TO SHOW THIS...AND IT
SHOWS IT DISSIPATING BY 11 AM...SO HAVE COVERED THAT WITH A SHORT-
TERM FORECAST. WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS AND MODEST OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS...WOULD EXPECT HALF-CLEARING OF CLOUD COVER THIS AFTN.
ONCE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PASSES EAST THIS EVNG...A TURN TO
MOISTER SW FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCUR. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME WARM
ADVECTION LIFT AND LIGHT RAIN MOVING ONTO THE COAST AS EARLY AS
THIS EVNG. BY TUE MORNING...MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED...AS
A SHORTWAVE NOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH NEAR
150W BRUSHES BY.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY AMPLIFY INTO WRN WA ON TUE NGT AND WED
MORNING. THIS WILL AT LEAST CONFINE LIGHT RAIN MORE TO THE COAST
AND NORTH INTERIOR...WHILE BRINGING A BREAK IN THE RAIN FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST.
A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE EAST OFF THE PACIFIC ON WED
NGT. PRECIP WILL START TO INCRS OVER WRN WA ON WED AFTN...WITH A
FEW HOURS OF HEAVY PRECIP ON WED NGT AS THE FAST-MOVING FRONT
MOVES BY. HANER
.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE 00Z AND 06Z GFS
SOLUTIONS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN EARLIER RUNS AND BRING THE
OFFSHORE FRONT INLAND ON THURSDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT
INLAND THEN HANGS IT UP AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFFSHORE THEN
MOVES NE ONTO THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA. A QUICK ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
EVENT IS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU THAT WOULD PROVIDE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND HIGH SNOW LEVELS TO THE SW FACING
OLYMPICS...COAST...AND NORTH CASCADES. HOWEVER LATEST MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS COMPARED TO SOLUTIONS FROM A FEW
CYCLES AGO. THE FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE WED NIGHT
THROUGH THU NIGHT PERIODS WERE NUDGED DOWNWARD TOWARD THE NEW
MODEL BLEND...AND ARE NOW HIGHER THAN AMOUNTS SHOWN IN THE LATEST
OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS. SNOW LEVELS THROUGH THU OR THU NIGHT WILL
AVERAGE 6000-8000 FT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH LOWS ONLY AROUND 50 AND HIGHS INTO THE 50S.
THE FRONT PUSHES EAST LATER THU OR THU NIGHT AND UPPER TROUGHING
DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA FRI INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALBRECHT
&&
.AVIATION...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF AN OFFSHORE UPPER RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE INLAND
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH UPPER FLOW BACKING TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THE
AIR MASS IS SOMEWHAT MOIST BELOW 6000 FT...BUT IT WILL DRY TODAY
WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALL LEVELS
TONIGHT WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
BKN-OVC CLOUDS 030-040 STILL COVER MUCH OF WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS...BUT THESE CLOUDS
WILL SCATTER OUT BY MIDDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH TONIGHT...EXCEPT AT THE COAST WHERE DETERIORATION TO MVFR
CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY.
KSEA...SOUTHEAST WIND 4-10 KT THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BKN036 DECK
SHOULD SCATTER WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. MCDONNAL
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL MAINTAIN OFFSHORE
FLOW TODAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A STRONGER PACIFIC FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
GALES LIKELY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. A LARGE SWELL TRAIN MAY REACH
THE COAST ON THURSDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 17-19 FT. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY. MCDONNAL
&&
.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...MOST NOTABLY FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER. A FAST-MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL PASS WESTERN WASHINGTON ON WED NIGHT...BRINGING A
FEW HOURS OF HEAVY RAIN...WITH SNOW LEVEL NEAR 7000 FEET. THE FAST
MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF
HEAVY PRECIP...IS NOT USUALLY SEEN AS A FLOOD-PRODUCING WEATHER
PATTERN. HOWEVER...A QUICK 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE OLYMPIC
MOUNTAINS WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING ON THE SKOKOMISH.
OVER THE NORTH CASCADES NEAR MOUNT BAKER...2-3 INCHES OF RAIN WOULD
CAUSE RISES ON RIVERS IN WHATCOM AND SKAGIT COUNTIES. WHILE RIVER
FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT...FLOODING ON RIVERS OTHER THAN THE
SKOKOMISH APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
ONCE THE PRECIPITATION MOVES SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT COOLER AIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH THE SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO 1500-2500
FEET. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE FLOOD THREAT. HANER
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...WEST STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
941 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
.UPDATE...
AFTER THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND VORTICITY
MAXIMUM EXITS THE EAST BY MIDNIGHT...STILL MORE FLURRIES EXPECTED
TONIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
MAINLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED TONIGHT. STILL A FEW MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR SHEBOYGAN BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THEN SCATTERED
FLURRIES. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION
AND SHOULD BRING SOME MVFR VSBYS IN SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING.
MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO BRISK
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE
SUPERIOR REGION. WIND GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM
A CONCENTRATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO TRANSLATE THROUGH
S WI THIS EVENING....WHICH SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS TO S WI FOR THE EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE VERY MUCH...BETWEEN A FEW TENTHS TO LESS THAN ONE INCH AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED. DESPITE LOW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...THERE COULD BE SOME
DECENT BURSTS OF SNOW...WHICH COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES...DUE TO
ENHANCED MOISTENING IN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS. RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WHICH COULD LEAD
TO THESE BURSTS OF LIGHT SNOW. ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN THE SATURATION
LAYER SHOULD HELP SUPPORT THIS LIGHT SNOW AS WELL. THE HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD STAY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.
THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT QUICKLY TONIGHT NEAR
06Z...WHICH SHOULD PUT US INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ENHANCE COLD AIR
ADVECTION OVER OUR REGION... WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER
TEENS FAHRENHEIT.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE QUIET AS A CORRIDOR OF NEGATIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE...THANKS TO BACKING WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION DURING THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S. THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW RETURNING TO S WI
LATE WEDNESDAY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN LOW ONCE AGAIN FOR THAT EVENT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DROPS THROUGH REGION UNDER ULD IN LEFT EXIT
REGION OF UPPER JET BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. WARM ADVECTION WING DROPS
ACROSS CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH THE STRONGER LOW-LAYER Q-
VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CWA AROUND 06Z.
WILL TIME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE AREA WITH THE STINKIER ISENTROPIC
ADIABATIC OMEGA AND LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SHOWN ON
THE ISENTROPIC FORECASTS...WHICH ALIGN WITH THE NARROW TIME PERIOD
OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS.
MID-UPPER LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE REMAINS STRONG AHEAD OF THE
VORT MAX...BUT MID-LEVELS DRYING OUT AFTER 06Z. STILL TOP OF MOIST
LAYER TOUCHING THE -10C SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS SNOW
OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF AS FORCING WITH MID-UPPER TROUGH AXES
SHIFT EAST BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WARM ADVECTION BRINGS EVENING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S THEN
SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
MODELS PAINTING OUT SOME LIGHT QPF WITH SECONDARY VORT MAX SWEEPS
ACROSS WISCONSIN LATE THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. GFS AND ECMWF MORE
ROBUST WITH MOISTURE AND LIFT BUT MOISTURE IS SHALLOW ON SOUNDINGS.
WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW BUT COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES. ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S IN THE BLENDED SOLUTIONS LOOK REASONABLE.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
SHORT WAVE RIDGING BRINGS A DRY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. FLOWS TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL
ORIENTATION FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK TAKES
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER FRIDAY AND
LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
WARM ADVECTION PCPN LOOKS TO BRUSH THE NORTHERN CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DYNAMICALLY FORCED PCPN AS THE TROUGH
CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. CONSENSUS OF MODELS PUTS HEAVIEST
PCPN AND HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NRN WI CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW. 925 MB TEMPS IN THE WARM ADVECTION BRING FRIDAY HIGHS
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...WITH NO DROP OFF IN THE WESTERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE WAVE FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING LOWS AROUND 30.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW
MODEL DIFFERENCES ABOUND WITH TIMING/STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVES IN
THE ZONAL UPPER FLOW THAT SETS UP OVER REGION. LOOKS WARM AND DRY
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 40. THEN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS WITH SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT SETS UP OVER THE REGION. ECMWF AND CANADIAN
GEM PUT PCPN OVER NRN WI SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHILE MORE
VIGOROUS LOW IN THE GFS BRINGS A GOOD SLUG OF PCPN TO THE ENTIRE
STATE.
SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT AND LIFTING NE TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AFFECTING THE
AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE FASTER ECMWF...OR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION. LOOKS AS IF THE SE
HALF OF THE CWA WOULD SEE SOME LIQUID PCPN AT THE OUTSET...THOUGH
GFS IS A BIT COOLER THAN THE ECMWF WITH ALL SNOW MORE LIKELY. TIGHT
GRADIENT AROUND LOW WILL ASSURE WINDY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
MAINLY MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST FOR THE TAF
SITES TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. CIG HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN 1-3
KFT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR VSBYS AS LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF BY THE LATE EVENING. WINDS
SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING FOR
BRISK AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS DUE TO INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS MOVING AWAY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI AND INTO CANADA. ANOTHER
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND WIND GUSTS APPROACHING GALE
FORCE ARE FORECAST.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR LMZ644>646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR LMZ643.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...JTS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...REM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
554 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A COMPACT
SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THIS
SHORTWAVE IS HELPING TO CREATE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
ACROSS THE REGION. THE BACK EDGE OF THE WIDESPREAD SNOW ACTIVITY
SEEMS TO BE MOVING EAST OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
HOWEVER...BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH SPOTTY FLURRIES EXTEND
INTO MINNESOTA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE
LIGHT SNOW/CLOUD TRENDS TONIGHT...THEN SNOW POTENTIAL WITH A FAST
MOVING CLIPPER ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...COMPACT SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT EASTERN WISCONSIN BY MID-
EVENING...WHICH WILL END THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW CHANCE ACROSS THE
EAST. FLURRIES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING
THOUGH. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST A FEW HOURS
LONGER...BUT BACKING FLOW AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES IN WILL CAUSE
TRAJECTORIES TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMS LOOK
MINOR...ONLY A TENTH OR TWO. OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL
SHIFT INTO THE STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM
THOUGH...SO WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT FOR CLEARING TO
OCCUR. THINK THE COMBO OF CLOUDS AND 5-8 KTS WIND SPEEDS WILL
PREVENT TEMPS FROM PLUMMETING DESPITE THE FRESH SNOW COVER. LOWS
COULD FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS IN THE COLD SPOTS OF N-C
WI...BUT MAINLY LOOKING AT LOW TO MID TEENS FOR TEMPS.
WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THINK WILL HAVE SOME SUN DURING
THE MORNING...BUT CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE LOOKS A LITTLE MORE BULLISH WITH PRECIP
POTENTIAL AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER...AND HAVE INCREASED CHANCES SOME.
COULD SEE A LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCH OVER THE FAR NORTH...AND LESS
THAN AN INCH NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND MAY CREATE MINOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING. HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS QUITE
DYNAMIC BUT SHORT ON MOISTURE. IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AN
INCH OR SO OF SNOW IN THE NORTH WITH LESS TO THE SOUTH. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY THURSDAY THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT.
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD
ALSO BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW IN THE NORTH AND
LESS ELSEWHERE. A WAVE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME
SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THOUGH THERE ARE SOME SUBSTANTIAL
MODEL DIFFERENCES.
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM STILL LOOKS LIKELY SOMETIME EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN ARCTIC HIGH RESIDES ACROSS CANADA WHILE SOUTHWEST UPPER
FLOW BRINGS WARM AND MOIST AIR NORTHWARD. THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST
A SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
WITH HEAVY SNOW OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND FREEZING
RAIN/SNOW/SLEET OR RAIN FURTHER EAST. WOULD EXPECT THE MODELS TO
COME UP WITH VARYING FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT THERE
SHOULD BE A BIG STORM SOMEWHERE OVER THE MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT
LAKES NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 543 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SHIFT EAST EARLY THIS EVENING...BRINGING
AN END TO THE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN WI. SOME FLURRIES
AND PATCHY MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST INTO LATE EVENING. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHALLOWS
OUT. SATL ALREADY SHOWS SOME CLEARING IN CENTRAL MN...WHICH
ADDS A LITTLE CONFIDENCE TO THE CLEARING TREND. A CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE SNOW...WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
THE RHI TAF SITE.
SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
ARRIVES WEDS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED GUSTY SFC WINDS AND LLWS TO
THE TAFS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
315 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
WELL..WE HAD TO WAIT A WHILE IN SOME AREAS BUT THE FORCING IS
FINALLY HITTING US WITH A RAPID INCREASE IN WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA.
THE LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS /800MB/ HAS BEEN WORKING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA FROM AUSTIN MN TO WABASHA TO TEMPEAULEAU
COUNTY FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SUPERCOOLED
LIQUID CLOUD. THIS WAS THE INTENT OF THE ADVISORY...BUT THE LIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THAT FGEN AREA HAS BEEN TOO LITTLE TO GROW THE
CLOUD DROPS TO DRIZZLE SIZE TO FALL. THUS...THE ADVISORY START
TIME WAS TOO EARLY EAST AND SOUTH OF LA CROSSE. OVERALL THERE IS
SURPRISINGLY LITTLE TRAVEL IMPACT IN THE FZDZ AREA WITH MAIN
ROADS IN NORMAL DRIVING CONDITION PER DOT DUE TO TREATMENTS.
SHERIFFS ARE REPORTING GLAZING ON OTHER SURFACES LIKE VEHICLES.
STARTING TO SEE GOOD CLOUD TOP COOLING IN NERN IA VIA GOES IR AS
WELL AS KDVN RADAR LIGHTING UP WITH DRIZZLE OVER THE PAST HOUR OR
SO. THIS IS SHIFTING INTO SWRN WI. CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS ARE
NEAR 1 AND SHOW THE DRIZZLE WELL...SAME AS SIGNAL AS FZDZ TO THE
NW OF KLSE. CLOUD TOP COOLING REGION IN NERN IA IS DEEPER ICE AND
SNOW IS BEING OBSERVED THERE...SOMETHING A CONSENSUS OF SHORT TERM
MODELS NAILED HOURS AGO. AT THAT TIME...WE HAD ADJUSTED THE SNOW
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT AXIS FROM ABOUT KCCY-KLSE. THIS AXIS
IS A DEVELOPING SECOND FRONTOGENESIS AREA /600-800MB/ THAT WILL
TEND TO TAKE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS IT SHIFTS INTO
NORTHCENTRAL WI PER 25.19Z RAP GUIDANCE AND OBS. SO...WE SHOULD
SEE THE CURRENT BAND SHIFT NORTHEAST TO KLSE...THEN TOWARD KISW.
IT SHIFTS QUICKLY...IT SEEMS OUTLIER /HIGHER/ SNOW TOTALS ARE NOT
SUPPORTED. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THAT MAX SNOW AXIS.
OVERALL THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS STILL ON A 2-3 INCH SNOW FROM NERN
IA INTO CENTRAL WI.
WHILE OUR FORECAST MESSAGE REMAINS A CHANGE TO SNOW...WE COULD SEE
FZDZ CONTINUE AWAY FROM THIS BAND FOR 2-3 HOURS YET UNTIL MAIN
UPPER LOW COMES IN. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE NOW KICKING
IN PER POTENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND QG FORCING...AND DEEP
SATURATION COULD JUST OCCUR THROUGH THE LAYER TOO. SO...WILL
CONTINUING THE MESSAGE OF FZDZ/SNOW TO ALL SNOW IS APPROPRIATE.
CONTINUED THE DRIFTING SNOW FORECAST IN THE POST-LOW ENVIRONMENT
OVERNIGHT. ALSO...HAVE LINGERED FLURRIES THROUGH THE MORNING ON
TUESDAY WITH TROUGH OVERHEAD AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES I THE LOW-
LEVELS. THINKING BOUNDARY LAYER ROLLS WILL ALLOW FOR ON/OFF LIGHT
SNOW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN WEDNESDAY WITH A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IN NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. TIMING SEEMS TO
BE AN ISSUE WITH THE 25.12Z ECMWF SUGGESTING ABOUT A 6 HOUR FASTER
SOLUTION THAN THE U.S. MODELS AND A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
WAVE. OVERALL...MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS/LIFT MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
WI...BUT WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THE 300-500MB QG CONVERGENCE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL WI...HAVE
INCREASED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THERE A BIT. IT LOOKS LIKE A
QUICK HITTER INCH OR LESS IF IT PRECIPITATES. THERE IS SUGGESTION
OF MORE ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND WILL NEED
TO WATCH THIS OVER THE COMING DAYS FOR SNOW CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH.
TRANSITION BEGINS LATE IN THE WEEK TOWARD MORE ZONAL FLOW AND THEN
LARGE SCALE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS IS
MAKING FOR A LOW PREDICTABILITY PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. STUCK WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS UNTIL A
BETTER TARGET CAN BE SEEN. OVERALL...AN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS GOING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TRANSITIONS TO SNOW BY 2-3PM. LOOK FOR
CIGS/VIS TO FALL FROM IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. THEN PLAN ON
CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO MVFR RANGE.
RIGHT NOW...EXPECTING JUST A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE FROM THE
DRIZZLE...THEN 1-3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE SOME
DRIFTING OF THE SNOW AS NORTHWEST WINDS KICK IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ079-
086>088-094>096.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR IAZ008>011-
018-019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...DAS
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TURNING NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHILE ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS SITUATED
FROM SOUTHWEST TO EAST-CENTRAL WI. NORTH OF THIS LATTER TROUGH...IN
A REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AROUND 850MB...A SWATH OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE FOX VALLEY AND ACROSS
CENTRAL WI. NO REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ON THE ROADWAYS
HOWEVER...AND INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT SLICK SPOTS REMAIN CONFINED
TO UNTREATED SURFACES. STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISSUES RELATED TO
FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FOX VALLEY. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW CONTINUED GROWTH OF THE LOW
LEVEL SATURATED LAYER. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING AS A
RESULT...BUT PLACE HEAVIER EMPHASIS ON THE SNOWFALL ARRIVING
TONIGHT. THE SNOW IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER IOWA AS
INDICATED BY THE STRENGTHENING RADAR RETURNS. AS THE LOW OVER
MISSOURI CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST TONIGHT...THE MAIN FOCUS
REMAINS ON IMPACTS FROM THE ANTICIPATED SNOWFALL.
TONIGHT...MODELS AGREE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM
THE QUAD CITIES TO LAKE HURON TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE LOW...MODERATE
QG FORCING ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL BRING AN INTENSIFYING AREA
OF SNOW NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE. THE
SYSTEM HAS SEVERAL THINGS GOING FOR IT...INCLUDING STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7 C/KM OVER EAST-CENTRAL WI...AND VERY GOOD
UPWARD MOTION IN A RELATIVELY SHALLOW DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
ALTHOUGH THE COLUMN WILL HAVE A NEAR ISOTHERMAL LAYER BETWEEN -5C
AND 0C AT THE START OF THE EVENING...A COOLING THERMAL PROFILE THIS
EVENING SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS AS THE MAIN
BRUNT OF THE STORM ARRIVES. THE MESO MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
TIMING SOME...BRINGING THE MAIN AREA OF SNOWFALL BETWEEN 0-3Z OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI...AND BETWEEN 03-06Z OVER FAR NORTHERN WI.
THE BEST FORCING/MOISTURE/INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE FROM CENTRAL
TO NE WI WHERE WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 2-5 INCHES LOOKS POSSIBLE.
LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH...IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE.
ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL LATE THIS EVENING...LIGHT SNOW
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING...THOUGH WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT LATE INTO
THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.
TUESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING...BUT THE COMMA HEAD
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWLY ROTATING ACROSS THE REGION. PROGGED
SOUNDINGS LOOK NEARLY SATURATED THROUGH THE COLUMN FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING...SO THINK LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE...AND WILL
INCREASE CHANCES. ANY ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
AMOUNTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE VILAS COUNTY SNOW BELT WHERE
TRAJECTORIES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT. THE SNOW WILL
EXIT MOST PLACES DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR THE SNOW BELT.
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. A COUPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH LACK OF
MOISTURE SHOULD MAKE FOR MODEST AMOUNTS. PROBABLY AN INCH OR TWO IN
THE FAR NORTH WITH AN INCH OR LESS FURTHER SOUTH.
ZONAL FLOW FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LOW APPROACHES
FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AS THAT SYSTEM APPROACHES UPPER FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHWEST AND MOISTURE STARTS TO TRANSPORT NORTH TOWARDS
THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. AN ARCTIC HIGH OVER MUCH OF CANADA
SHOULD PROVIDE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR OVER WISCONSIN MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE DIFFERENCES IN WHAT HAPPENS NEXT WITH A
WINTER STORM POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES OR
MIDWEST. PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES ARE LIKELY AS WELL AS TIMING
DIFFERENCES AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST MON JAN 25 2016
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY
IN MOST AREAS. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. THEN SNOW WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. PLOWS WILL BE NEEDED IN MOST PLACES. WIND WILL
BE RATHER LIGHT SO LITTLE DRIFTING IS EXPECTED. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL RISE ABOVE IFR RANGE AROUND 15Z TUESDAY THOUGH SNOW SHOWERS
ARE STILL LIKELY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ040-045-
048>050.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ005-
010>013-018>022-030-031-035>039-073-074.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1051 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
AND NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR TONIGHT. ATTENTION TURNS TO LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
00Z NAM/GFS HAVE BOTH COME IN WITH HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. THE NAM
GENERATES 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW OVER MOST OF C/NE/EC WI...WHILE
THE GFS SUGGESTS 3 TO 5 INCHES. ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL
PROBABLY BE AN INCH OR TWO LOWER OVER NC WI...THIS AREA WILL
HAVE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR ICING FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE MONDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BLO FREEZING. WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT COORDINATE ANY HEADLINES
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...BUT CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. AN
UPDATED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A COLD
FRONT POSITIONED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN COLORADO. AFTER
SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WI...VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS THE NORTH...SO THINKING THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT WILL REMAIN ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARDS THE REGION ON MONDAY...POTENTIAL OF
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW IS MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN.
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS KANSAS WHILE AN
INVERTED TROUGH SHARPENS OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AHEAD
OF THESE FEATURES...SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST
WHILE WEAK WARM ADVECTION OCCURS ABOVE 850MB. AS A RESULT...THE LOW
STRATUS DECK WILL REMAINED TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION AND PROBABLY
LOWER SOME AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. A DRY WEDGE ABOVE THE
INVERSION WILL LIKELY PREVENT PRECIP CHANCES AND WILL STICK WITH A
DRY FORECAST. TEMPS WILL NOT FALL MUCH TONIGHT...AND MAY JUST
REMAIN STEADY NEAR THE LAKE DUE TO THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.
MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKE THE TURN NORTHEAST AND HEAD FROM
EASTERN KANSAS TO EASTERN IOWA. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL ALSO SHIFT
EAST OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY INTO SOUTHWEST TO NORTH-CENTRAL WI.
AS THESE SURFACE FEATURES DRAW CLOSER TO THE REGION...THE LOW LEVEL
SATURATED LAYER WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN...WHICH WILL PROMOTE INCREASING
CHANCES OF DRIZZLE THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...EXCEPT FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI. SOME SNOW COULD
MIX IN WITH THE DRIZZLE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHEN MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE DEEPENS AHEAD OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE ROTATING INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI WHERE
FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BECOME WIDESPREAD. SOME DISCUSSIONS TO ISSUE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO
ONSET OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...HOW HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS WILL BE
IF/WHEN FREEZING DRIZZLE ARRIVES IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL ISSUE AN
SPS INSTEAD...AND LET THE MIDNIGHT CREW TAKE ANOTHER LOOK. HIGHS 30-
35 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN
ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD COMBINE TO PRODUCE A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS NOT THAT
ABUNDANT BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IN
MOST AREAS. THEN CLIPPER SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOULD BRING ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL. 1 TO 3
INCHES PROBABLE WITH THOSE SYSTEM WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE
NORTH.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN INTERESTING
PATTERN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK THOUGH THERE ARE BIG
DIFFERENCES FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE
A LARGE ARCTIC HIGH WILL RESIDE OVER CANADA WITH SOUTHWEST UPPER
FLOW BRINGING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS A BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM OR TWO NEXT WEEK BUT HARD TO PREDICT
WHERE AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
EXPECT CIGS TO SETTLE INTO THE IFR RANGE OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE
TRAPPED BENEATH A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION...AND LIGHT E-SE WINDS.
ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT
OVERNIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD TO THE TAFS. THINK THERE
WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF FZDZ AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS OVER
NC/C WI LATE MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES MAY BE
ABOVE FREEZING IN EASTERN WI BY THE TIME DRIZZLE DEVELOPS DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. FZDZ/DZ WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...WITH LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING. FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IN THE IFR/LIFR CATEGORIES
AT MOST LOCATIONS ON MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........KIECKBUSCH
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1206 AM EST WED JAN 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH. ON THURSDAY, THE REGION
WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS, ONE WHICH SHOULD TRACK
WELL OFFSHORE, AND ANOTHER ONE MOVING EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND IS THEN IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING.
ENOUGH LIFT WILL BE PRESENT ALONG THE FRONT FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. LATEST RADAR WAS BASICALLY VOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
ECHOES, WITH PRECIP TO THE W NOT REACHING THE GROUND ATTM. BOTH
THE NAM AND HRRR INDICATE THAT PRECIP WILL BE MINIMAL THRU 09Z,
WITH THE GFS A LITTLE MORE ROBUST (AND LIKELY OVERDONE) BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THEREFORE, HAVE LOWERED POPS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND REASSESS POPS LATER IN
THE PD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF I-95 WED MORNING. OTHERWISE...
CLEARING SKIES WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. NORTHWEST WINDS
GENERALLY UNDER 15 MPH EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE TREND THAT BEGAN WITH YESTERDAY/S MODEL
RUNS WITH THE TRACK OF THE OFF SHORE LOW HAS CONTINUED. THE OFF
SHORE LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO TAKE A TRACK WELL OFF SHORE,
RESULTING IN FEW IF ANY IMPACTS FOR OUR REGION. MEANWHILE, THE LOW
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA IS NOW EXPECTED TO
FILL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS
STILL EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. DESPITE
LIMITED MOISTURE, THERE ARE LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW ACROSS THE
POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NJ. OTHERWISE THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE BREEZY
CONDITIONS. BEING SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS WILL RESULT
IN A SOMEWHAT TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND THUS GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION, ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY BEHIND OR WITH THE FRONT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE RIDGES MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD RESULTING IN A MODEST WARMING TREND
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SLIGHTLY FROM
THE I95 CORRIDOR TO THE NORTHWEST, WHERE THE EXTENSIVE SNOW PACK
IS STILL QUITE DEEP (AS GUIDANCE HAS A TENDENCY TO UNDERESTIMATE
THE IMPACT OF THE SNOW PACK IN THESE SITUATIONS).
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN THE TRACKS AND TIMING OF THE NEXT
TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. ONE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE CROSSING
EASTERN CANADA EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE GFS IS NOW SHOWING A FURTHER
SOUTH TRACK (WITH POTENTIAL PRECIP FOR OUR REGION) WHILE THE ECMWF
NOW HAS THE FURTHEST NORTH TRACK (WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FOR
OUR REGION). CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY, HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. AT THE VERY END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD ON TUESDAY, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LEE SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR. WEST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED,
NO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPOTTY
MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT MAINLY FOR KACY AND KMIV BUT DATA HAS BEEN
SHOWING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THOSE PROSPECTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR AT ALL TAF SITES. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THERE
IS A SMALL RISK OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
WE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 21Z WED.
WHILE SEAS MAY COME DOWN SOME...WE EXPECT THE WINDS TO REMAIN
ELEVATED OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY. THERE
MAY BE A GALE GUST OR TWO, BUT THE RISK IS LOW RIGHT NOW.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY BE SUBSIDING
BELOW SCA CRITERIA, THOUGH GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
PHILADELPHIA AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR JANUARY IS PROJECTING NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...MAYBE 0.6 TO 0.9 DEGREES ABOVE THE
NORM OF 33.0.
THAT MEANS FOR DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY TO AVERAGE NORMAL, WE
WOULD NEED A FEBRUARY MUCH COLDER THAN LAST FEBRUARY WHICH WAS
NEARLY 10F BELOW NORMAL. IN OTHER WORDS, PROBABLY CLOSE TO 14F
BELOW NORMAL. THAT IS NOT LIKELY. (DECEMBER AVERAGED ALMOST 14
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
THE REMAINING CLIMATE SITES IN OUR AREA SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO THE
NEAR NORMAL DEPARTURES THAT HAVE OCCURRED SO FAR THROUGH THE 25TH.
44009 ON THE 23RD: WE TOOK A LOOK AT THE AVAILABLE DATABASE BACK
TO 1984 AND THE 60 KT WIND RECORDED THERE BEFORE THE WIND SYSTEMS
QUIT SHORTLY AFTER 1104Z/23RD WAS THE SECOND STRONGEST WIND GUST
THERE IN THE PERIOD OF RECORD. 64 KT GUSTS WERE RECORDED AT THIS
LOCATION ON 9/27/85 (GLORIA); 60, 64, 60 KT AT 10,12 AND 13Z ON
8/18/86 (CHARLEY) AND THIS YEARS 60 KT. HOWEVER WIND SENSORS HAVE
BEEN OTS FOR LONG STRETCHES OF TIME IN RECENT YEARS.
THE SEAS AT 44009 REACHES 27.6 FEET AROUND 2150Z/23...HIGHEST ON
RECORD THERE!
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...FRANCK/GAINES/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...FRANCK/GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...FRANCK/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
226 AM MST WED JAN 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 AM MST WED JAN 27 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A LARGE
SCALE RIDGE WITH 582 DM CENTER EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN US
WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS OUR CWA. AT THE THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FROM EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
RIDGE WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY. A DEEP DRY AIR MASS WILL
PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CHANCES DESPITE A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSAGES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MAIN IMPACT ON THESE
FEATURES WILL BE PASSING MID-HIGH CLOUDS WHICH COULD COMPLICATE
DIURNAL TRENDS AND DAYTIME MIXING. OVERALL EXPECT THE SHORT RANGE
PERIOD TO BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL AND DRY. OVERALL TREND IN GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING BETTER DOWNSLOPE AND WAA PARTICULARLY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND I TRENDED TEMPS UP OVER PARTS OF OUR CWA. FRIDAY IS A
LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED REGARDING HIGHS AS MODELS ARE SHOWING PRE
FRONTAL TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTH AND FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF OUR CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. RESULT COULD BE HIGHS IN THE
SOUTH APPROACHING 70 IN OUR SOUTH AND HIGHS IN THE NORTH COOLER
THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED.
REGARDING FIRE WEATHER TODAY...IF MIXING IS NOT HAMPERED BY
INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE GUSTS
20-25 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. BEST CHANCE FOR RH TO APPROACH
15 PERCENT IS STILL IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA...AND AS
OF CURRENT SOUNDINGS IT STILL LOOKS LIKE RH SHOULD REMAIN JUST
ABOVE THIS. EVEN IF THERE IS A BRIEF/LOCALIZED CROSSOVER OF 15% RH
AND 25 MPH WIND GUSTS THIS WILL LIKELY NOT REACH OUR 3HR
REQUIREMENT FOR RFW. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TODAY...AND KEEP
MENTION IN HWO FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM MST WED JAN 27 2016
UPPER FLOW SHOULD BE ZONAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES
SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY. THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH
SHOULD BE OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE
MISSOURI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN
BEHIND THE EXITING STORM TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN FEATURES
OF THE TROUGH. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT IN EARLIER WHILE THE GFS HOLDS
IT OVER THE AREA LONGER. BOTH MODELS BRING THE STORM ACROSS THE
FAVORED PANHANDLE REGION WHICH WOULD PRODUCE A GOOD SNOWFALL EVENT
FOR THE FA. IF SIGNIFICANT SNOW FALLS...WINDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY COULD CREATE ISSUES WITH TRAVEL. DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING... THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A
COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH READINGS FROM 40 TO 45. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL GET PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WITH READINGS FROM 35 TO 40
MONDAY AND 25 TO 30 TUESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY COOL
INTO THE 20S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. COLDER MIN TEMPERATURES
IN THE TEENS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 942 PM MST TUE JAN 26 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. AT THAT TIME SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE NEAR 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 24 KNOTS. NEAR SUNSET THE WINDS WILL DECREASE AND
AND LOSE THEIR GUSTINESS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
304 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 218 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
Longwave trough continues to push southeast out the area, clearing
Kansas in the overnight hours. Attention on latest water vapor
imagery is brought to the Saskatchewan/Montana area as a shortwave
was moving southeast across this area. Weak surface pressure falls
behind the departing weak surface anticyclone bringing light south
to southwest winds to many local sites overnight. RAP data
indicating 10-15kt southwest winds around 800ft AGL and seems to be
enough to keep any fog formation in check.
The northern upper wave continues southeast into the Great Lakes
area today and tonight. A weak surface trough passes late tonight,
with southwest winds increasing a bit today and providing enough
mixing into a warming 850-925mb airmass for a noticeably warmer day
today despite increasing mid and high cloud. The remaining snowpack
over northern and western areas may hold temps back a bit, but
should still be able to reach into the 40s here. The warmer airmass
and more mixing tonight should keep lows in the mid to upper 20s as
the clouds thin.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 218 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
Temperatures aloft continue to rise through the mid and late week,
bringing highs in the 50s Thursday with upper 50s to lower 60s by
Friday. Weak shortwave trof skims the area Friday into Friday
night, but temperatures recover quickly behind the system to
still bring highs in the 50s on Saturday. This may be underdone if
pool of warmer mid level temps ahead of the next front can park
overhead and mix into this layer with southerly winds that day.
Sunday may start out warm, but with front passing through the day
temperatures start to fall in the afternoon. There are model
differences in how fast the next northern clipper moves to the
east, and how much cold air it moves southeast in the process,
with EC colder than the GFS for Sunday. Both have our area north
of the front on Monday with overrunning precipitation intensifying
as the next upper trof approaches.
Latest EC by sunrise Tuesday is wound up over SC Kansas with
strong winds and snow driving southward across western Kansas. GFS
is slower and farther south, with an elongated surface low
stretching SW to NE across Missouri, while the EC already has the
low into Illinois. Several of the GFS ensemble 500mb height
comparisons are quite different in how they handle the system as
it moves out of the west, and is still quite early to jump on any
one solution given the system is somewhere out over the Bering
Sea. Current runs of operational GFS and EC bring accumulating
snow and strong winds to our western counties. Still considerable
uncertainty, with this possible stronger solution noteworthy.
Lots of time for forecast track and strength to shift around.
Worth keeping an eye on, while still noting the system is at least
6 days out.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday)
Issued at 1057 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
Confidence in ground fog developing is decreasing as the
HRRR/RAP/MOS guidance show VSBY remaining 6 miles or better.
Additionally the forecast soundings prog winds just off the
surface to begin increasing around 09Z which should increase dry
air entrainment into the boundary layer. Because of this am
inclined to remove fog from the forecast. If it were to form, it`d
likely be around MHK for a few hours. By 09Z and 10Z, fog chances
seem to fade as low level winds pick up.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
237 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 229 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
Those stubborn low clouds are still hanging around...and the RAP
modeling of 925 mb moisture suggests this may continue...at least
thru the first half of today. It will probably take until the H5
trof passes this pm...to really allow the low level moisture to
depart. And the RAP confirms, showing it exiting our northeastern
counties around 00Z Thursday.
This will impact temps, with mostly 30s forecast except perhaps
for western counties (SEMO Ozarks)...where more sunshine and lower
40s is possible.
A surface high pressure ridge strengthens overhead by Friday. This
will commence a moderating trend...with temperatures working back
through the 40s and maybe even getting into some lower 50s in
SEMO. Nightly lows in the 20s are anticipated until Friday...when
the moderating trends toward lows in the 30s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 229 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
At 00z Saturday, models show surface high pressure off the southeast
coast and surface low pressure over the Central Plains. This will
keep our area in strong south to southwest flow through the weekend
into early next week which will keep our temperatures well above
seasonal normals. This will also bring more moisture into the area.
The surface low will move east and northeast into the Great Lakes
region. Models are all over the place with the track and timing of
the low, with GFS now much faster moving the associated cold front
across our region. ECMWF and the Canadian are more consistent with
their previous solutions, lingering the front across our region for
the early part of the work week, and prefer these solutions. Went
with slight and chance pops for the PAH forecast area for showers
Sunday into Monday night, then another area of low pressure will
move along the front on Tuesday. This will increase our chances for
showers, and with some instability moving into the area, included
slight chances for thunderstorms on Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 229 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
MVFR cigs are modeled well by the RAP at 925 mb, which suggests
they`ll hold on virtually everywhere through the first half of the
day. KCGI/KPAH may see some breaks on the western edge, but
predominantly Cigs. A real clearing likely doesnt commence until
the upper trof passes...which will occur during the pm hours.
Clouds will depart the northeast terminals last...with the RAP
showing KEVV/KCGI clearing around/shortly after 00Z.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
330 AM EST WED JAN 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR TROF
EXTENDING FM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF UPR RDG
OVER THE ROCKIES. SHRTWV/SFC LO PRES RESPONSIBLE FOR WDSPRD SN THAT
IMPACTED THE CWA LAST NGT INTO THIS MRNG IS EXITING TO THE NE THRU
SE CANADA...BUT ANOTHER SHRTWV DIGGING SE THRU THE UPR
MIDWEST/ACCOMPANYING DPVA AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/DEEP MSTR SHOWN
ON THE 12Z GRB RAOB AS WELL AS LINGERING CYC NNW FLOW OF COLDER AIR
DROPPING H85 TEMPS TOWARD -14C IS MAINTAINING SOME SN MAINLY NEAR LK
SUP. 12Z INL RAOB SHOWS MID LVL DRYING LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SHRTWV...AND BACK EDGE OF COLDER CLD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS DRYING IS PUSHING SEWD THRU THE CWA THIS AFTN.
SN INTENSITIES DIMINISHED QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THIS
DRYING. LOOKING UPSTREAM... THERE IS A SHRTWV OVER WRN CANADA RIDING
OVER THE ROCKIES RDG.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU WED WL BE ON POPS INTO THIS EVNG AND THEN ON
WINDS/POTENTIAL FOR SOME SN ON WED AFTN IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF SHRTWV NOW TOPPING THE ROCKIES RDG.
TNGT...EXPECT SN SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR LK SUP THIS EVNG IN LINGERING
CYC FLOW TO DIMINISH TNGT WITH ARRIVAL OF DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR
DVGC/MORE ACYC LLVL FLOW/WARMING H85 TEMPS ACCOMPANYING SFC RDG AXIS
THAT IS FCST TO FOLLOW INTO THE WRN LKS FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING
SHRTWV. ALTHOUGH THE LES WL PERSIST THRU THE EVNG UNTIL THE PASSAGE
OF THE H85 THERMAL TROF ARND 06Z...SHIFTING WINDS THAT LIMIT BAND
RESIDENCE TIME THRU THE EVNG WL ALSO LIMIT ADDITIONAL SN ACCUMS.
EVEN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SFC RDG AXIS TOWARD 12Z TO THE N OF HI
PRES CENTER BLDG INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...CLRG OF THE LO CLDS
MAY BE LIMITED OR AT LEAST SLOWED AS QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD LINGERS
UPSTREAM IN THE NRN PLAINS UNDER THE RDG AXIS THERE. LINGERING LO
CLDS AND STEADY BACKING WINDS WELL N OF THE SFC HI CENTER SHOULD
LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL...ESPECIALLY IF THE LO CLDS ARE QUITE
PERSISTENT. TENDED TO BUMP UP FCST MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.
WED...SHRTWV NOW RIDING THE ROCKIES RDG IS FCST TO DIG SE INTO NE MN
BY LATE IN THE DAY...WITH ACCOMPANYING DEEP SFC LO MOVING NEAR
THUNDER BAY BY LATE IN THE DAY. AS THE PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE SFC LO
PRES AND DEPARTING SFC HI PRES RDG TIGHTENS...SW H925 WINDS ARE FCST
TO INCRS UP TO 35-40KTS. ALTHOUGH HI STABILITY RELATED TO THE WAA
THAT IS FCST TO BOOST H85 TEMPS UP TO -5C BY 18Z WL LIMIT THE MIXING
OF THIS HIER MOMENTUM TO THE SFC...STILL EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO AT
LEAST REACH 30-35 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK
SUP. ALL THE NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW AREA OF SN IN COMMA TAIL OF THE
SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE CWA W-E IN THE AFTN. SINCE THE COMMA
TAIL/AXIS OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WL BE MOVING STEADILY...MSTR
INFLOW INTO THIS DISTURBANCE WL BE LIMITED PER NAM FCST H85
DEWPTS/H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY...AND SN/WATER RATIOS ARE FCST TO BE
POOR WITH A RATHER HI/THEN DGZ CENTERED ARND 13K FT AGL...EXPECT SN
ACCUMS TO BE AN INCH OR TWO AT THE MOST. CARRIED THE HIER POPS/SN
TOTALS OVER THE NRN CWA CLOSER TO THE SHRTWV TRACK.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED JAN 27 2016
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z THU THAT
THEN MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z SAT. A SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES ALONG
THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER FRI NIGHT ALONG THE ND/MN BORDER. NAM
BRINGS IN SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE INTO THE
AREA FRI NIGHT. LAKE EFFECT WINDS DOWN ON THU AND THU NIGHT AND HAVE
LIKELY POPS ON THU FOR LAKE SUPERIOR NORTH SNOW BELTS. NEXT SYSTEM
ARRIVES ON FRI AND HAVE LIKELY POPS FRI AFTERNOON AND FRI NIGHT AS
THIS MOVES THROUGH AND COULD SEE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS
SYSTEM. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES. DID LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT THU NIGHT AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND COULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE WI BORDER WHICH WOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
QUICKLY DROP.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES 12Z SAT. MORE TROUGHING MOVES IN FOR 12Z SUN AND A SFC
FRONT AND COLDER AIR MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MON. A CLOSED 500 MB LOW
AND TROUGH MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z TUE WHICH THEN HEADS TO
THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF ABOVE
NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND THEN COOL EACH DAY A COUPLE DEGREES TO END
THE EXTENDED IN THE NEAR NORMAL RANGE. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUN
WITH A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND THEN LAKE EFFECT SUN NIGHT
INTO MON WITH CHANCE POPS RETURNING TUE WITH OVERRUNNING SITUATION
WITH SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT KIWD/KSAW UNDER GRADUALLY
BACKING WINDS. WITH A LINGERING OVERWATER TRAJECTORY...KCMX SHOULD
SEE MVFR CIGS AND OCNL -SHSN. HOWEVER...SOME PERIODS OF VFR ARE
EXPECTED...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING DURING THE EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME PREDOMINANT AT KCMX BEFORE DAYBREAK AS
WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN AS
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES RIDGE AND A LOW PRES
MOVING INTO NRN ONTARIO. THAT LOW WILL ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF -SN
AND IFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD/KCMX IN THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTN AND
AT KSAW THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EST WED JAN 27 2016
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXITS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY...A LOW WILL NEAR FROM S CENTRAL CANADA. THE RESULT FOR LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL BE INCREASING SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN ISLE
ROYALE AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. GALES TO 35KTS WILL QUICKLY MOVE
TO E LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE ENDING LATE THIS
EVENING. EXPECT THE LOW TO MOVE W-E ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT...AND MOVE OVER FAR SE ONTARIO/S QUEBEC THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...
MAINLY OVER N CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR AS N-NW WINDS TAKE HOLD.
MEANWHILE...A RIDGE LOOKS TO QUICKLY SLIDE ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SWING ACROSS ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY.
AS THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITS ACROSS JAMES BAY ON
SUNDAY...A TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LSZ266-267.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
/9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
324 AM EST WED JAN 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR TROF
EXTENDING FM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF UPR RDG
OVER THE ROCKIES. SHRTWV/SFC LO PRES RESPONSIBLE FOR WDSPRD SN THAT
IMPACTED THE CWA LAST NGT INTO THIS MRNG IS EXITING TO THE NE THRU
SE CANADA...BUT ANOTHER SHRTWV DIGGING SE THRU THE UPR
MIDWEST/ACCOMPANYING DPVA AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/DEEP MSTR SHOWN
ON THE 12Z GRB RAOB AS WELL AS LINGERING CYC NNW FLOW OF COLDER AIR
DROPPING H85 TEMPS TOWARD -14C IS MAINTAINING SOME SN MAINLY NEAR LK
SUP. 12Z INL RAOB SHOWS MID LVL DRYING LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SHRTWV...AND BACK EDGE OF COLDER CLD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS DRYING IS PUSHING SEWD THRU THE CWA THIS AFTN.
SN INTENSITIES DIMINISHED QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THIS
DRYING. LOOKING UPSTREAM... THERE IS A SHRTWV OVER WRN CANADA RIDING
OVER THE ROCKIES RDG.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU WED WL BE ON POPS INTO THIS EVNG AND THEN ON
WINDS/POTENTIAL FOR SOME SN ON WED AFTN IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF SHRTWV NOW TOPPING THE ROCKIES RDG.
TNGT...EXPECT SN SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR LK SUP THIS EVNG IN LINGERING
CYC FLOW TO DIMINISH TNGT WITH ARRIVAL OF DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR
DVGC/MORE ACYC LLVL FLOW/WARMING H85 TEMPS ACCOMPANYING SFC RDG AXIS
THAT IS FCST TO FOLLOW INTO THE WRN LKS FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING
SHRTWV. ALTHOUGH THE LES WL PERSIST THRU THE EVNG UNTIL THE PASSAGE
OF THE H85 THERMAL TROF ARND 06Z...SHIFTING WINDS THAT LIMIT BAND
RESIDENCE TIME THRU THE EVNG WL ALSO LIMIT ADDITIONAL SN ACCUMS.
EVEN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SFC RDG AXIS TOWARD 12Z TO THE N OF HI
PRES CENTER BLDG INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...CLRG OF THE LO CLDS
MAY BE LIMITED OR AT LEAST SLOWED AS QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD LINGERS
UPSTREAM IN THE NRN PLAINS UNDER THE RDG AXIS THERE. LINGERING LO
CLDS AND STEADY BACKING WINDS WELL N OF THE SFC HI CENTER SHOULD
LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL...ESPECIALLY IF THE LO CLDS ARE QUITE
PERSISTENT. TENDED TO BUMP UP FCST MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.
WED...SHRTWV NOW RIDING THE ROCKIES RDG IS FCST TO DIG SE INTO NE MN
BY LATE IN THE DAY...WITH ACCOMPANYING DEEP SFC LO MOVING NEAR
THUNDER BAY BY LATE IN THE DAY. AS THE PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE SFC LO
PRES AND DEPARTING SFC HI PRES RDG TIGHTENS...SW H925 WINDS ARE FCST
TO INCRS UP TO 35-40KTS. ALTHOUGH HI STABILITY RELATED TO THE WAA
THAT IS FCST TO BOOST H85 TEMPS UP TO -5C BY 18Z WL LIMIT THE MIXING
OF THIS HIER MOMENTUM TO THE SFC...STILL EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO AT
LEAST REACH 30-35 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK
SUP. ALL THE NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW AREA OF SN IN COMMA TAIL OF THE
SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE CWA W-E IN THE AFTN. SINCE THE COMMA
TAIL/AXIS OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WL BE MOVING STEADILY...MSTR
INFLOW INTO THIS DISTURBANCE WL BE LIMITED PER NAM FCST H85
DEWPTS/H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY...AND SN/WATER RATIOS ARE FCST TO BE
POOR WITH A RATHER HI/THEN DGZ CENTERED ARND 13K FT AGL...EXPECT SN
ACCUMS TO BE AN INCH OR TWO AT THE MOST. CARRIED THE HIER POPS/SN
TOTALS OVER THE NRN CWA CLOSER TO THE SHRTWV TRACK.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
GENERALLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH INTERMITTENT CHANCES
OF SNOW WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED 500MB SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEAST MN/ WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE U.P. TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE GENERALLY KEEPING THE BETTER
FORCING/HEAVIER PRECIPITATION JUST NORTH OF THE CWA MAINLY OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ONTARIO. THE SYSTEM SNOW WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK AND
GENERALLY LIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF PROGGED TO BE AROUND 0.15
INCHES. SNOWFALL RATIOS SHOULD NOT BE THAT IMPRESSIVE EITHER AS THE
MOIST LAYER IN THE DGZ IS ELEVATED BETWEEN ABOUT 700MB AND 6000MB
WITH FAIRLY GUSTY WINDS BELOW THAT LAYER...EFFECTIVELY HELPING TO
SHEAR THE LARGER DENDRITES APART. THIS WOULD LIKELY GIVE SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS SOMEWHERE AROUND 12 TO 15 ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...KEEPING THE SYSTEM SNOW TOTALS BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND THE CHANNELING EFFECT BETWEEN THE KEWEENAW...ISLE ROYALE AND THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN WILL INCREASE THE GALE POTENTIAL IN THOSE AREAS.
GUSTS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY REACH BETWEEN 35 AND
40KNOTS. EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KNOTS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW ALONG
THE SHORELINES AS WELL. THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT THURSDAY
AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD...THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST AND
850MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO THE -12 TO -15C RANGE. THE BIGGEST IMPACT
WOULD BE FOR NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS THURSDAY MORNING AND
THEN NORTH WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD GIVE
THOSE AREAS AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW. AS THE WINDS BECOME
NORTHERLY THERE COULD BE YET ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALES OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND 35 KNOTS.
THE LOW AND TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST THURSDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING A BIT DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN AND THE INVERSION HEIGHT TO
BECOME VERY SHALLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW THE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
BECOME MUCH LIGHTER ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE UPPER PENINSULA FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING DRIER
AIR...LIGHT WINDS AND A VERY BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE NAM/GFS/GEM ARE ALL
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PLACEMENT OF BOTH THE SURFACE FEATURES
AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THE MAIN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT IS THE LAST
FEW RUNS OF THE EC...WHICH HAS EVEN HAD RUN TO RUN ISSUES. LEANING
MORE TOWARD THE GFS...MOISTURE WOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE U.P. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASING ON WAA INTO THE REGION.
THIS WOULD ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY
EVENING...THE GFS/GEM HAVE A DRY SLOT SLIDING ACROSS THE U.P. WHICH
MAY CHANGE THE LIGHT SNOW OVER TO LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE...HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD BE VERY BRIEF AS THE CORE OF THE
SYSTEM SLIDES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND TO SOUTHWEST
QUEBEC BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP SNOW IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. SIMILAR TO THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
SYSTEM...SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 12 TO 15 RANGE
DUE TO THE ELEVATED DGZ ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
COLUMN. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS SHOW AROUND 0.15 TO 0.25 INCHES OF
LIQUID QPF PAINTED OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE U.P. WITH MOST OF THAT
OCCURRING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS ALONG WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WOULD GIVE MOST OF THE AREA
BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF SNOW. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WOULD NOT BE
FAVORABLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS 850MB ARE PROGGED TO BE A BIT
TOO WARM.
THE REMAINING EXTENDED...THE PATTERN ONCE AGAIN BECOMES VERY MESSY
FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF SNOW
WILL DOMINATE THIS TIME PERIOD. THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING AND
INTENSITY DIFFERENCES BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. CONFIDENCE IN
ANY SINGLE MODEL SOLUTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS
POINT...THEREFORE WILL STICK WITH A CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS TO AT
LEAST SHOW THE INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF SNOW FOR THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT KIWD/KSAW UNDER GRADUALLY
BACKING WINDS. WITH A LINGERING OVERWATER TRAJECTORY...KCMX SHOULD
SEE MVFR CIGS AND OCNL -SHSN. HOWEVER...SOME PERIODS OF VFR ARE
EXPECTED...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING DURING THE EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME PREDOMINANT AT KCMX BEFORE DAYBREAK AS
WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN AS
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES RIDGE AND A LOW PRES
MOVING INTO NRN ONTARIO. THAT LOW WILL ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF -SN
AND IFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD/KCMX IN THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTN AND
AT KSAW THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EST WED JAN 27 2016
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXITS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY...A LOW WILL NEAR FROM S CENTRAL CANADA. THE RESULT FOR LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL BE INCREASING SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN ISLE
ROYALE AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. GALES TO 35KTS WILL QUICKLY MOVE
TO E LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE ENDING LATE THIS
EVENING. EXPECT THE LOW TO MOVE W-E ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT...AND MOVE OVER FAR SE ONTARIO/S QUEBEC THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...
MAINLY OVER N CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR AS N-NW WINDS TAKE HOLD.
MEANWHILE...A RIDGE LOOKS TO QUICKLY SLIDE ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SWING ACROSS ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY.
AS THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITS ACROSS JAMES BAY ON
SUNDAY...A TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LSZ266-267.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
/9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1150 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR TROF
EXTENDING FM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF UPR RDG
OVER THE ROCKIES. SHRTWV/SFC LO PRES RESPONSIBLE FOR WDSPRD SN THAT
IMPACTED THE CWA LAST NGT INTO THIS MRNG IS EXITING TO THE NE THRU
SE CANADA...BUT ANOTHER SHRTWV DIGGING SE THRU THE UPR
MIDWEST/ACCOMPANYING DPVA AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/DEEP MSTR SHOWN
ON THE 12Z GRB RAOB AS WELL AS LINGERING CYC NNW FLOW OF COLDER AIR
DROPPING H85 TEMPS TOWARD -14C IS MAINTAINING SOME SN MAINLY NEAR LK
SUP. 12Z INL RAOB SHOWS MID LVL DRYING LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SHRTWV...AND BACK EDGE OF COLDER CLD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS DRYING IS PUSHING SEWD THRU THE CWA THIS AFTN.
SN INTENSITIES DIMINISHED QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THIS
DRYING. LOOKING UPSTREAM... THERE IS A SHRTWV OVER WRN CANADA RIDING
OVER THE ROCKIES RDG.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU WED WL BE ON POPS INTO THIS EVNG AND THEN ON
WINDS/POTENTIAL FOR SOME SN ON WED AFTN IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF SHRTWV NOW TOPPING THE ROCKIES RDG.
TNGT...EXPECT SN SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR LK SUP THIS EVNG IN LINGERING
CYC FLOW TO DIMINISH TNGT WITH ARRIVAL OF DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR
DVGC/MORE ACYC LLVL FLOW/WARMING H85 TEMPS ACCOMPANYING SFC RDG AXIS
THAT IS FCST TO FOLLOW INTO THE WRN LKS FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING
SHRTWV. ALTHOUGH THE LES WL PERSIST THRU THE EVNG UNTIL THE PASSAGE
OF THE H85 THERMAL TROF ARND 06Z...SHIFTING WINDS THAT LIMIT BAND
RESIDENCE TIME THRU THE EVNG WL ALSO LIMIT ADDITIONAL SN ACCUMS.
EVEN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SFC RDG AXIS TOWARD 12Z TO THE N OF HI
PRES CENTER BLDG INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...CLRG OF THE LO CLDS
MAY BE LIMITED OR AT LEAST SLOWED AS QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD LINGERS
UPSTREAM IN THE NRN PLAINS UNDER THE RDG AXIS THERE. LINGERING LO
CLDS AND STEADY BACKING WINDS WELL N OF THE SFC HI CENTER SHOULD
LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL...ESPECIALLY IF THE LO CLDS ARE QUITE
PERSISTENT. TENDED TO BUMP UP FCST MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.
WED...SHRTWV NOW RIDING THE ROCKIES RDG IS FCST TO DIG SE INTO NE MN
BY LATE IN THE DAY...WITH ACCOMPANYING DEEP SFC LO MOVING NEAR
THUNDER BAY BY LATE IN THE DAY. AS THE PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE SFC LO
PRES AND DEPARTING SFC HI PRES RDG TIGHTENS...SW H925 WINDS ARE FCST
TO INCRS UP TO 35-40KTS. ALTHOUGH HI STABILITY RELATED TO THE WAA
THAT IS FCST TO BOOST H85 TEMPS UP TO -5C BY 18Z WL LIMIT THE MIXING
OF THIS HIER MOMENTUM TO THE SFC...STILL EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO AT
LEAST REACH 30-35 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK
SUP. ALL THE NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW AREA OF SN IN COMMA TAIL OF THE
SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE CWA W-E IN THE AFTN. SINCE THE COMMA
TAIL/AXIS OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WL BE MOVING STEADILY...MSTR
INFLOW INTO THIS DISTURBANCE WL BE LIMITED PER NAM FCST H85
DEWPTS/H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY...AND SN/WATER RATIOS ARE FCST TO BE
POOR WITH A RATHER HI/THEN DGZ CENTERED ARND 13K FT AGL...EXPECT SN
ACCUMS TO BE AN INCH OR TWO AT THE MOST. CARRIED THE HIER POPS/SN
TOTALS OVER THE NRN CWA CLOSER TO THE SHRTWV TRACK.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
GENERALLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH INTERMITTENT CHANCES
OF SNOW WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED 500MB SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEAST MN/ WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE U.P. TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE GENERALLY KEEPING THE BETTER
FORCING/HEAVIER PRECIPITATION JUST NORTH OF THE CWA MAINLY OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ONTARIO. THE SYSTEM SNOW WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK AND
GENERALLY LIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF PROGGED TO BE AROUND 0.15
INCHES. SNOWFALL RATIOS SHOULD NOT BE THAT IMPRESSIVE EITHER AS THE
MOIST LAYER IN THE DGZ IS ELEVATED BETWEEN ABOUT 700MB AND 6000MB
WITH FAIRLY GUSTY WINDS BELOW THAT LAYER...EFFECTIVELY HELPING TO
SHEAR THE LARGER DENDRITES APART. THIS WOULD LIKELY GIVE SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS SOMEWHERE AROUND 12 TO 15 ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...KEEPING THE SYSTEM SNOW TOTALS BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND THE CHANNELING EFFECT BETWEEN THE KEWEENAW...ISLE ROYALE AND THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN WILL INCREASE THE GALE POTENTIAL IN THOSE AREAS.
GUSTS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY REACH BETWEEN 35 AND
40KNOTS. EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KNOTS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW ALONG
THE SHORELINES AS WELL. THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT THURSDAY
AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD...THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST AND
850MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO THE -12 TO -15C RANGE. THE BIGGEST IMPACT
WOULD BE FOR NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS THURSDAY MORNING AND
THEN NORTH WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD GIVE
THOSE AREAS AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW. AS THE WINDS BECOME
NORTHERLY THERE COULD BE YET ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALES OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND 35 KNOTS.
THE LOW AND TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST THURSDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING A BIT DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN AND THE INVERSION HEIGHT TO
BECOME VERY SHALLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW THE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
BECOME MUCH LIGHTER ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE UPPER PENINSULA FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING DRIER
AIR...LIGHT WINDS AND A VERY BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE NAM/GFS/GEM ARE ALL
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PLACEMENT OF BOTH THE SURFACE FEATURES
AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THE MAIN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT IS THE LAST
FEW RUNS OF THE EC...WHICH HAS EVEN HAD RUN TO RUN ISSUES. LEANING
MORE TOWARD THE GFS...MOISTURE WOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE U.P. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASING ON WAA INTO THE REGION.
THIS WOULD ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY
EVENING...THE GFS/GEM HAVE A DRY SLOT SLIDING ACROSS THE U.P. WHICH
MAY CHANGE THE LIGHT SNOW OVER TO LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE...HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD BE VERY BRIEF AS THE CORE OF THE
SYSTEM SLIDES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND TO SOUTHWEST
QUEBEC BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP SNOW IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. SIMILAR TO THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
SYSTEM...SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 12 TO 15 RANGE
DUE TO THE ELEVATED DGZ ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
COLUMN. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS SHOW AROUND 0.15 TO 0.25 INCHES OF
LIQUID QPF PAINTED OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE U.P. WITH MOST OF THAT
OCCURRING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS ALONG WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WOULD GIVE MOST OF THE AREA
BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF SNOW. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WOULD NOT BE
FAVORABLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS 850MB ARE PROGGED TO BE A BIT
TOO WARM.
THE REMAINING EXTENDED...THE PATTERN ONCE AGAIN BECOMES VERY MESSY
FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF SNOW
WILL DOMINATE THIS TIME PERIOD. THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING AND
INTENSITY DIFFERENCES BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. CONFIDENCE IN
ANY SINGLE MODEL SOLUTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS
POINT...THEREFORE WILL STICK WITH A CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS TO AT
LEAST SHOW THE INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF SNOW FOR THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT KIWD/KSAW UNDER GRADUALLY
BACKING WINDS. WITH A LINGERING OVERWATER TRAJECTORY...KCMX SHOULD
SEE MVFR CIGS AND OCNL -SHSN. HOWEVER...SOME PERIODS OF VFR ARE
EXPECTED...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING DURING THE EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME PREDOMINANT AT KCMX BEFORE DAYBREAK AS
WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN AS
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES RIDGE AND A LOW PRES
MOVING INTO NRN ONTARIO. THAT LOW WILL ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF -SN
AND IFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD/KCMX IN THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTN AND
AT KSAW THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON AS A
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY NORTH WINDS
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS EVENING AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS. THE
NEXT PERIOD FOR STRONGER WINDS WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SW GALES TO 35 KNOTS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS STAY NEAR 30 KNOTS INTO THU AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
SLIDES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FROM CANADA...BRINGING
GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 30 KNOTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. A
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING WINDS LESS THAN 25 KNOTS FOR
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR LESS THAN 25 KNOTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ266-
267.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ TO 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/
WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ162-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
403 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
FIRST ISSUE THIS MORNING IS A FOG BANK THAT DEVELOPED OVER SW MN
EARLIER TONIGHT WITHIN A LITTLE BUBBLE RIDGE AXIS AND CLEAR SKIES.
ABOUT A 50 MILE WIDE BANK OF FOG DEVELOPED...WHICH HAS BEEN SLOWLY
PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE. LOOKING AT
RWIS AND AIRPORT SENSORS...VISIBILITY IN THIS BANK OF FOG IS DOWN
BETWEEN 1/8TH AND 1/2 MILE. THE HRRR HAS ACTUALLY PICKED UP ON THIS
FOG BANK AND ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION...THOUGH IS A BIT FAST. THE
BIG ISSUE THOUGH IS THE FOG BANK LOOKS TO MAKE IT INTO THE TWIN
CITIES DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE AND WILL CAUSE HUGE HEADACHES AT
MSP IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT HAS ALL NIGHT. BASED ON THE HRRR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS...WAS DETERMINED THAT IT WOULD BE BEST TO BRING IT
INTO MSP...WITH 12Z TO 14Z BEING THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEEING IT.
AFTER THAT...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE POTENT UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN. HI-RES GUIDANCE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH THE COMBINATION OF WARM FRONTAL FORCING
AND STRONG PV-ADVECTION RESULTING IN A NARROW BAND OF PRECIP MOVING
THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE CAMS TO BRING THIS
NARROW BAND OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. ONE
CONCERN THOUGH WITH GETTING PRECIP IS THE VERY DRY LAYER OF AIR ON
THE KMPX SOUNDING LAST NIGHT BETWEEN 800 AND 500 HPA. FORCING COMING
IN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND MAY NOT HANG AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO
MOISTEN THIS LAYER ENOUGH TO ALLOW PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG CAM AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL AGREEMENT IN
SOME LIGHT PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND...DECIDED TO BRING A BAND OF
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE AREA. FOR P-TYPE...WE WILL SEE A
VERY WARM LAYER OF AIR COMING IN AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT
ALOFT...WITH A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LIKELY FOR ANY PRECIP
THAT FALLS SOUTHWEST OF AN ALEXANDRIA...SW TWIN CITIES METRO...
ROCHESTER LINE. BESIDE THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING THIS
MIXED PRECIP...P-TYPE OUTPUTS FROM THE CAMS SHOW A SIMILAR SCENARIO.
FORTUNATELY...WHATEVER FALLS...IT DOES NOT LOOK TO LAST MUCH MORE
THAN AN HOUR OR TWO...SO WILL SEE MINIMAL IMPACTS. THE ONLY AREA
THAT WILL SEE PRECIP CHANCES A BIT LONG ARE FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF
A RUSH CITY/EAU CLAIRE LINE. THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE MAIN
ISENTROPIC LIFT GOING ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD AND NRN WI...SO THEY
WILL GET ON THAT ALONG WITH THE PV FORCING. HERE...WE ARE STILL
CALLING FOR 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW.
WITH THE WARM AIR COMING IN TODAY...WE WILL SEE A NICE WARMING IN
TEMPERATURES...WITH MID/UPPER 30S STILL LOOKING LIKELY IN MN /WITH
A 40 NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN WEST CENTRAL MN/ WITH MORE
LOWER/MID 30S IN WRN WI...WHERE 925-850 TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER. TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE MILD AS WELL...AS COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW WILL BE MORE OF A BACK DOOR FRONT COMING
DOWN FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL KEEP US IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND
WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER FOR ERN MN/WRN WI EXPECTED...WE WILL
LIKELY SEE MANY AREAS THERE STAY IN THE 30S OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
A RATHER ACTIVE LONG TERM AHEAD WITH AT LEAST THREE DIFFERENT
WEATHER SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDINESS. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHING NW TO SE ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER AREA. THIS IS
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON EASTWARD AS THE
BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY EAST. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED AT THIS
POINT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE BY THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MN ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING
AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL BELOW
FREEZING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY
MORNING FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON WESTWARD WITH SOME SNOW AND SLEET
POSSIBLE IN WESTERN WI. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DUE TO THE MOISTURE PROFILE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS REMAINING
IN PLACE. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM THE TWIN CITIES
ON WEST WHILE A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE TO THE EAST.
A CHANCE OF SNOW IS IN STORE FOR THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS A MID LEVEL WAVE AND FRONTOGENETIC
ZONE MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. IF THE CONTINUITY
WITH THESE FEATURES CONTINUE...THEN THE POPS IN THE FORECAST ARE
WAY TOO LOW AND SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW MAY OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. FORTUNATELY...HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE
RATHER MILD AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. THE SNOW COULD MIX
WITH SOME RAIN AT TIMES AND TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.
MONDAY IS THE ONLY DAY IN THE LONG TERM WITH LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE BRIEF DRY PERIOD
WILL GIVE WAY TO A LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM FROM TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. GOOD CONTINUITY CONTINUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON
THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY. THE TRACK WOULD CERTAINLY BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
SNOW (6 INCHES OR MORE) TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN MN...THE TWIN CITIES
AND WESTERN WI. THIS IS CERTAINLY A SYSTEM TO KEEP AN EYE ON. THE
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IS REALLY STRONG ON THE LAST 5 RUNS OF THE
GFS FROM 204 HOURS TO 180 HOURS. EVEN THE ENSEMBLE DATA HAS A MEAN
TRACK VERY CLOSE TO THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS. HENCE...WITH THE
CONFIDENCE PRETTY HIGH ON SNOW OCCURRING...WE RAISED POPS INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY OVER SOUTHERN MN FOR TUESDAY AND ACROSS THE TWIN
CITIES AND WESTERN WI TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
LARGE HOLE IN THE CLOUD COVER HAS DEVELOPED TONIGHT. FOR THE MOST
PART THAT MEANS VFR IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. FOG HAS
DEVELOPED AT KRWF AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE BACK INTO KSTC SOON.
A QUICK HITTING BAND OF SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM
THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
KMSP...
DONT SEEN MUCH IN THE WAY OF AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE. ITS POSSIBLE THAT SOME 2500-3000FT CEILINGS ARE
HANGING AROUND KMSP AROUND 6AM...BUT THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH A BAND OF SNOW THAT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY NOW.
MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE OVER FOR THE TOMORROW EVENING RUSH.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. W WIND 10-15 KT.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR CEILINGS. SW WIND 5-10 KT.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR WITH -RA/-SN. SW WIND 5-10 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1149 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE NORTHLAND TOMORROW...WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST 12Z MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...OTHER THAN MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES...AND GENERALLY INCREASED PCPN AMOUNTS. INCREASED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH...AROUND 3 INCHES. HELD OFF ON A WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINE...BUT THE EVENING OR NIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO ISSUE ONE IF
THE SNOWFALL FORECAST TRENDS A BIT GREATER.
AT 330 PM...THE NORTHLAND HAD WNW TO NW FLOW AND BKN/OVC STRATUS.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 20S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST...WITH A POTENT
SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WAS OVER NW ONTARIO...SE MANITOBA...AND THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS.
THERE WILL BE LINGERING OVERCAST STRATUS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERING LATER TONIGHT WHEN
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL ALSO
BE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN IRON COUNTY...WHERE AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
HIGHER CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT...AND ITS POSSIBLE
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP PROP UP THE TEMPERATURES...AS
WELL AS THE SW FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A LITTLE ABOVE 10 DEGREES.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DIG ACROSS CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
AND MANITOBA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND NW ONTARIO DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS CLIPPER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT
SHORTWAVE WITH THE PASSING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BRING A QUICK BURST OF SNOW...BEGINNING IN THE NW DURING
THE MIDDLE MORNING...AND SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. THE SNOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTIER
WINDS...ABOUT 10 TO 20 MPH...SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF
VISIBILITY APPROACHING A HALF MILE OR LESS WHEN THE SNOW IS AT ITS
MOST INTENSE. WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
FORECAST...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...SUCH
AS OVER THE BOUNDARY WATERS. HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT THERE COULD
BE BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE WAKE OF
THE MAIN BAND OF SNOW...WHEN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS DRY AND THERE
REMAINS A RELATIVELY WARM LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER. THE NAM12
SOUNDINGS HAVE A SHORT PERIOD WHERE THE SATURATED LAYER COULD BE
DEEP ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT ENOUGH OF MOISTURE FOR DRIZZLE...BUT
THE GFS SOUNDINGS ARE NOT NEARLY AS DEEP. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN
ITS OCCURRENCE...SO LEFT FREEZING DRIZZLE OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE
NIGHT SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO LOOK MORE INTO DETAIL INTO THIS THREAT
WHEN THE HRRR AND RAP13 ARE WITHIN RANGE OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW
30S.
MORE SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MAINTAINING LOW CHANCES OF LINGERING SNOW AND FLURRIES.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER WILL NOT PASS THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY...SO OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND 5 TO 15 MPH WIND SPEEDS. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
DEPARTING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY MORNING. COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW SHOULD
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LES IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. RELATIVELY HIGH
WIND SPEEDS IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER SUGGESTS THE SNOW SHOWERS
WOULD PENETRATE WELL INLAND. AS A RESULT HAVE HELD ONTO HIGHER
POPS SOUTHEAST INTO SAWYER AND PRICE COUNTIES THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL DEPART FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH THE
EXITING LOW...SO THINK AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW ANOTHER INCH OR TWO AT
THE MOST.
THE NEXT QUICK HITTING SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THERE ARE PRETTY DISTINCT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC MEMBERS AND HAVE KEPT POPS
UNCHANGED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOISTURE SEEMS LIMITED AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...MAINLY WHATEVER BITS OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN IT CAN CARRY
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THINK SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH THE LARGER TOTALS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND OVER
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE ARROWHEAD.
BEHIND CLIPPER NUMBER TWO...GUIDANCE SEEMS SPLIT BETWEEN THE
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION OF A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND...AND THE GFS WHICH BRINGS ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EVEN WITH THE MORE ZONAL
BLEND...THINK THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIFT LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA TO SUPPORT LOW CHANCE POPS/CLOUDS.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS SEEM TO TREND TOWARD A
SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH THE HANDLING OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM TROF. QUASI-ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS/CONTINUES OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE TROF BEGINS TO DIG
INTO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
MVFR/VFR CLOUDS AT THE OUTSET OF THE FORECAST UNDER A SFC RIDGE.
THERE ARE SOME LARGE HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER. THIS IS SHORT LIVED
AS MORE MVFR CLOUDS ARE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN MN AND WILL AFFECT
THE TERMINALS FOR A TIME. HOWEVER...IN THE WAA AHEAD OF THE SFC
LOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA...THE MVFR CIGS WILL DIMINISH
LEAVING VFR. MODELS ARE ATTEMPTING TO BRING QUICKLY BACK MVFR
BEFORE THE LIGHT SNOW ARRIVES. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW FOR LLWS
FROM 08Z TO 15Z TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS. IT APPEARS THE LIGHT
SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM INL TO HYR FROM 13Z TO 17Z. GUSTY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE LIGHT SNOW WITH SOME BLSN POSSIBLE. THE GUSTY WINDS
AND LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER THROUGH THE FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 12 30 26 27 / 10 90 30 10
INL 12 31 23 26 / 0 90 50 10
BRD 12 33 28 30 / 0 60 10 10
HYR 11 31 28 31 / 10 80 40 20
ASX 14 32 27 30 / 0 80 40 50
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
348 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
THE ARCTIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NRN
SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING WILL DIVE TO THE MINNESOTA ARROW HEAD BY
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW SHOULD INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN NEB. THE FRONT
SHOULD REMAIN OVER OR NORTHEAST OF THE MISSOURI BASIN TONIGHT. THE
MODELS SHOW WARM AIR BACKFILLING ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES IN ALBERTA. THUS THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS WITH
THERMAL RIDGING ACROSS NEB THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE RAP INDICATES THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
THIS MORNING WILL DECAY AS THEY MOVE SOUTH AS A RESULT OF MID LEVEL
DIVERGENCE. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A PERIOD OF
DEEP VERTICAL MIXING SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS. THE ECS GUIDANCE SHOWS 51F FOR A HIGH AT VALENTINE. THE
FORECAST USES A BLEND OF THE WARMER MAV...EKD AND ECS GUIDANCE PLUS
BIAS CORRECTION FOR HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTN. SFC MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE
NRN ROCKIES INTO ERN MT WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THUS WARMER
TEMPERATURES...STRONG WINDS AND WET BULB TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S WILL ACCELERATE SNOW MELT.
850-700MB WINDS OF 25 TO 40 KT AND THERMAL RIDGING TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOWS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 DESPITE GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
VERY MILD CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH FOUR
DAYS /INCLUDING TODAY/ IN THE 50S ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. A BIT COOLER IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE MILD WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A PLUME OF WARM AIR ALOFT /H850 MB TEMPS OF
7C TO 12C/. FRIDAY LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE FOUR DAYS...AS A
WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WILL HELP MIX THE WARM
AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A LEAD SHORTWAVE...AHEAD OF MONDAY AND
TUESDAYS STORM SYSTEM...WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW. TEMPERATURES BORDER LINE
FOR SNOW...WITH H850MB TEMPERATURES BARELY BELOW FREEZING AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S SATURDAY NIGHT AND UPPER 30S AND
40S SUNDAY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. TONIGHTS
27/00Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM A BIT
SOUTH OF THE 26/12Z RUNS. FURTHER SHIFTING IS OF COURSE EXPECTED THE
NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
THE 27/00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS ALSO SHIFTED EVER SO SLIGHTLY SOUTH
OF THE 26/12Z MEAN. THE MEAN CENTERS A HEAVY QPF CENTER NEAR MCCOOK
OF 1.2 INCHES LIQUID. AT NORTH PLATTE THE MEAN IS AROUND 0.75 OF AN
INCH...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH. THE TREND IN THE MODELS
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR FURTHER SHIFTING IN
THE STORM TRACK. WITH THE SHIFT SOUTH IN TONIGHTS MODEL
RUNS...DECIDED TO LEAVE POPS AT 50 PERCENT OR LESS FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. DID NOT WANT TO INTRODUCE
LIKELY POPS AT THIS POINT IN CASE THE SOUTHWARD TREND AWAY FROM THE
AREA CONTINUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS OF
15000 TO 20000 FT AGL. AFTER MID AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT
CLEAR SKIES. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS OF 10000 TO 15000 FT AGL
THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT SCATTERED
CLOUDS AROUND 20000 FT AGL WITH CLEAR SKIES FORECAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BUTTLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
351 AM EST WED JAN 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT ALONG WITH QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. MAY SEE A SHORT
PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR ARRIVES
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS...CURRENTLY EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO ONEIDA...ONONDAGA AND
MADISON COUNTIES AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE FINGER LAKES THIS
MORNING.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TO BE A SMALL ENOUGH EVENT FOR THE ABOVE
MENTIONED AREAS TO NOT ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. EXPECTING
AROUND 1 TO 4 INCHES IN ONEIDA COUNTY...1 TO 2 INCHES IN ONONDAGA
AND MADISON COUNTIES AND AN INCH OR LESS FROM SENECA AND SRN CAYUGA
OVER TO OTSEGO COUNTY.
A STRONG 1000-950MB CONVERGENT ZONE IS BEGINNING TO SET UP ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO AND WILL INTENSIFY AND DROP SOUTHWARD FROM AROUND 11-
15Z. COLD AIR IS ADVECTING IN FROM THE NW ALONG A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS...AND IS COOLING THE AIR ALOFT FASTER THAN THE SFC. THIS
WILL ALLOW LOW LVL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN THIS MORNING AND CREATE
ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL NY. THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER OFF THE RAP AND THE NAM
BOTH INDICATE THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SQUALLS ALONG SERN
PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO AND AREAS INLAND THIS MORNING. SO...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS AS THEY DEVELOP FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
BRIEF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS DURING OR JUST AFTER THE MORNING COMMUTE.
THERE ARE A FEW LIMITING FACTORS WITH THIS EVENT...WHICH WILL KEEP
SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE LOWER SIDE. THE AMT OF DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING
AND THE AIR ALOFT IS NOT AT LEVELS WHICH PROMPT THE HEAVY LES. 850MB
TEMPS ARE ONLY AROUND -10 TO -12 DEG C. BOTH OF THESE WILL HINDER
THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW. THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IS VERY SMALL
AS WELL. BL WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW BETWEEN 10-12Z AND REMAIN
FAVORABLE THROUGH 16-18Z THIS MORNING BEFORE BACKING BACK TO THE SW.
THE LIMITING FACTORS FOR THIS EVENT SEEM TO OUTWEIGH THE
SUPPORTIVE FACTORS...SO HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY
AND GO WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT TO THREAT OF
LES THIS MORNING.
HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOWER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT ALONG WITH A DRIER AIR
MASS AND A SWLY WIND FLOW. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW THE LES TO
COME TO AN END AND KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES IN FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY. THERMAL PROFILES WILL REMAIN
COLD ENOUGH THROUGH THE DURATION OF THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE EXPECTED
TO TRACK THROUGH NRN NEW ENGLAND TO KEEP ALL THE PRECIP IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AND KEEP THE
SNOW AMTS LIGHT. ANOTHER COLD PUSH OF CANADIAN AIR ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO AND INTO CENTRAL NY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR THE NEXT PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
SNOWFALL AMTS MAY BE MORE DUE TO A LONGER PERIOD OF SNOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
215 PM TUE UPDATE...
IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL BE
EMBEDDED WITH WEAK WAVES YET OVERALL WILL BECOME ZONAL OVER THE
WEEKEND...ORIENTATING MORE WSW-ENE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LONG
STORY SHORT IS THAT NO BIG SYSTEMS ARE FORESEEN...AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL.
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION SIDE OF A WEAKENING CLIPPER COULD BRING A
QUICK BATCH OF SNOW SHOWERS-FLURRIES SATURDAY...MIXING WITH RAIN
SHOWERS-SPRINKLES. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THIS WILL BE IN CENTRAL
NEW YORK...BUT WHEREVER IT OCCURS THE ACTIVITY WILL BE QUITE
LIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY...BUT ANOTHER CLIPPER LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY COULD YIELD ANOTHER MINOR BATCH OF MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW...TIMING DIFFERS BY MODEL YET AGAIN ALL OF IT LIGHT.
ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS FORESEEN BEHIND THE CLIPPER MONDAY
NIGHT...STILL WARMER THAN CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUGGEST.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND
NORTHEAST PA AS COOLER AIR MOVES OVER THE REGION. THIS AIRMASS WILL
ALSO INDUCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL NY. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND COULD IMPACT KITH... KBGM... KSYR AND KRME.
SOME OF THESE LE SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE IFR VISBYS. THE LOCATIONS
WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS IS KSYR AND KRME.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A TRACE TO AROUND 4
INCHES. WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS LOCATED OVER KRME AND KSYR.
WINDS WEST-SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AROUND 10 KTS. GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH
WED, ESPECIALLY NY TERMINALS.
.OUTLOOK...
THU...VFR.
FRI-SAT-SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHSN FRI...AND MIXED
SHRA/SHSN OVER THE WEEKEND. MAINLY VFR FOR KAVP.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...KAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
438 AM EST WED JAN 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS EAST TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY MORNING. A TROUGH WILL SLIDE BY THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
RAIN MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IN WRN
NC. SOME WINTRY PRECIP IN THE WEST AS COOLER AIR WORKS IN...BUT
OVERALL THREAT OF ANY ACCUMULATION SEEMS LOW...NOT MORE THAN A
DUSTING ON TOP OF THE SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND. SPECIAL WX STATEMENT
STILL IN PLACE TO COVER ANY REFREEZE OF SNOWMELT TIL 7AM.
AS WE HEAD TOWARD MID MORNING MOST OF THE ARE WILL BE PRECIP FREE AS
NW WINDS PICK UP SOME WITH HIGH PRESSURE WORKING IN FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW CLEARING TAKING PLACE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TRENDED THAT WAY IN THE FORECAST.
8H TEMPS COOLER TODAY WITH SOME CAA AND HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...TO MID 40S IN THE
PIEDMONT.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS EAST AND WILL SETUP OVERHEAD. SHOULD
CLEAR OUT FROM NW TO SE...THOUGH SOME MOISTURE MAY STILL SPREAD NWD
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SITS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...SO
KEPT A FEW MORE CLOUDS OVER THE PIEDMONT OF NW NC INTO SOUTHSIDE VA.
LOWS TO NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE MTNS TO MID 20S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS LA AND THE WESTERN GULF...WITH A CONVEYOR
BELT OF GULF MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. MEANWHILE...AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IS
TRACKING EASTWARD WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THESE SYSTEMS ARE NOT PROGGED TO PHASE UNTIL WELL OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THE WEEKEND. THUS...THE RNK CWA IS
ESSENTIALLY LEFT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS. AS THE ALBERTA CLIPPER
MOVES INTO THE ALLEGHANYS THU AFTERNOON...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM FROM GA TO
OFF THE NC COAST. THIS ALLOWS MOISTURE TO POTENTIALLY SPREAD
NORTHEAST BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF IS
THE MODEL MOST PRONOUNCED WITH THIS IDEA. THUS...HAVE ADVERTISED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY THU AS A
RESULT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER. THE PROBLEM HERE IS THAT TEMPS
WILL LIKELY BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING AT THIS SAME TIME. NAM/GFS
MODEL SOUNDINGS OFF BUFKIT SHOW SFC TEMPS AT KDAN NEAR 32F AT 12Z
THU. WITH REMNANT SNOW/ICE ON THE GROUND AND ANY RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT...THIS IS REALISTIC. THUS A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF
-FZRA WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. GIVEN THAT QPF IS ONLY A
TRACE...NO ICE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AND PRECIPITATION WOULD
CHANGE TO -RA AFTER 14Z ANYWAY. ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS...AS THE
CLIPPER MOVES INTO THAT REGION DURING THE EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS BECOME LIKELY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
WITH MINOR 1-2 INCH ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. FLURRIES AND A FEW
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY SPILL FURTHER EAST TOWARD THE
BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT. BY FRIDAY MORNING...THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST OF THE REGION AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END WITH
CLOUDS DECREASING INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD AFTER FRI.
FOR FRI-SAT...THE GENERAL TREND ALOFT IS FOR INCREASINGLY ZONAL
FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO MILDER TEMPERATURES THAN WE HAVE SEEN OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. AFTER A BRIEF SET BACK BEHIND THE
ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM FRI WHEN 850MB TEMPS DROP BACK TO AROUND
-6C TO -8C...850MB TEMPS REBOUND TOWARD +6C QUICKLY INTO SATURDAY.
LATEST MEX MOS AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF MOS SHOW SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES THU-FRI...WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO ONE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR
TO MID/LATE DECEMBER 2015 WITH DEEP TROUGHING EVOLVING IN THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL U.S. A DEEP 530MB CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS
NM/TX PANHANDLE BY TUE...SIMILAR TO THE SYSTEM THAT OCCURRED
ACROSS THIS REGION AROUND CHRISTMAS. HOWEVER...THE LOW CENTER IS A
COUPLE HUNDRED MILES FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS EVENT.
HEIGHTS/THICKNESS VALUES/850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS OUR
REGION AS THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST TO THE WARMEST
LEVELS SEEN SINCE CHRISTMAS...APPROACHING +12C BY WED.
THERE IS ONE FINAL CLIPPER SAT-SUN RACING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THAT MAY RESULT IN A VERY BRIEF SETBACK IN 850MB TEMPS SAT...BUT
OVERALL 850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN ABOVE 0C THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION OF SIGNIFICANCE DOES NOT
COME UNTIL MON WHEN A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF
RAIN INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL
BE TOO WARM AT THAT POINT FOR ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION.
EXTENDED MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WITH LOWS RISING
INTO THE 30S AND 40S. IF THIS PANS OUT AS ADVERTISED...OUR BIG
SNOW STORM OF LATE LAST WEEK WILL SOON BE HISTORY...WITH ONLY THE
LARGE PILES OF SNOW LEFT IN THE PARKING LOTS AND ON THE SIDES OF
ROADS TO REMIND US OF IT.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1110 PM EST TUESDAY...
SWATH OF PRE-FRONTAL RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF THE
REGION LATE THIS EVENING...MAINLY BLUE RIDGE EAST BUT OVERALL OF
THE LIGHT VARIETY. LATEST HRRR MODEL SLOWLY SHIFTS THIS AXIS EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE IT SLOWS NEAR KDAN
AROUND DAWN ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE RIDES UP THE FRONT.
BEHIND THE FRONT KBLF/KLWB AND PERHAPS KBCB WILL GET INTO SOME
UPSLOPE IFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY PERIODS OF SUB-VFR VSBYS WITH SOME
DRIZZLE/FOG...AND AS TEMPERATURES FALL THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE PRECIPITATION GOES OVER TO LIGHT SNOW
OR FLURRIES LATE. SITES FURTHER EAST WILL HAVE NO PTYPE ISSUES BUT
WILL SEE CIGS LOWER INTO MVFR OVERNIGHT AS RAINFALL INCREASES IN
COVERAGE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE TO
VEER MORE NORTHERLY DURING WEDNESDAY ESPCLY OUT EAST.
EXPECT TO SEE SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST
DURING WEDNESDAY AS A MORE PREDOMINANT NW TRAJECTORY TAKES SHAPE
ALOFT ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO FILTER EAST. HOWEVER MAY TAKE UNTIL
MIDDAY OR LONGER TO BECOME VFR AROUND KDAN WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FINALLY SCATTERING OUT FROM KBCB EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD
ADVECTION LIKELY TO KEEP KBLF/KLWB SUB-VFR WITH PERHAPS IFR AT
TIMES AROUND KBLF GIVEN UPSLOPE FLOW UNTIL IMPROVING SOME LATER IN
THE DAY.
THESE LOWER CIGS MAY LINGER AT KBLF/KLWB INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE GRADUAL DRYING TAKES SHAPE ALLOWING ALL OTHER LOCATIONS TO
REMAIN PRIMARILY VFR OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN MORE IN THE WAY
OF WIDESPREAD VFR AT ALL SITES.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL SWING A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN PERIODS OF -SHSN
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER VFR EXPECTED FROM THE
BLUE RIDGE EAST WHERE WILL REMAIN UNDER DOWNSLOPING FLOW. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS/RAB
AVIATION...JH/MBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1117 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT REACHING
THE COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER....AHEAD OF
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL ARRIVE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES SATURDAY
RESULTING IN MUCH MILDER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 840 PM EST TUESDAY...
COLD FRONT REMAINS RATHER SLUGGISH TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING WITH THE BOUNDARY RUNNING ALMOST PARALLEL
TO THE SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. LATEST
GUIDANCE FINALLY KICKS THE FRONT EAST TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHILE THE NARROW SWATH OF LIGHT RAIN TENDS TO DISSIPATE
OUT WEST BEFORE REDEVELOPING IN THE EAST. NEXT RIPPLE RIDING UP
THE BOUNDARY ALSO LOOKS TO ENHANCE COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH ONLY SPOTTY PRECIP REMAINING OUT WEST LATE.
THUS AFTER EARLY LIKELY/CAT POPS FAR WEST...HAVE FOCUS OF BETTER
COVERAGE SHIFTING INTO THE FAR SOUTH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND
EVENTUALLY IN THE EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH LAGGING COLD AIR
SHOULD ALLEVIATE THE POTENTIAL FOR TOO MUCH ICING WEST WHERE
EXPECT OUTSIDE THE DEEPER VALLEYS...TEMPS WONT FALL TO FREEZING
UNTIL ALMOST DAWN IN SPOTS. LATEST HRRR BASICALLY IN LINE WITH
THIS SCENARIO SO TRIMMED BACK ON ICING/SNOW SOME BUT COULD STILL
BE ENOUGH OF AN ISSUE ESPCLY FAR WEST LATE TO KEEP THE SPS GOING.
OTRW LOWS MOSTLY UPPER 20S WESTERN MOUNTAINS...TO LOW/MID 30S
BLUE RIDGE...TO POSSIBLY ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST GIVEN CLOUDS AND WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 345 PM EST TUESDAY...
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS ON OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP AND WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE WAXING AND WANING AS WEAK WAVES MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT...BUT EXPECT A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS. THEN AS
THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND CATCHES LINGERING
SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION AND UPSLOPE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...EXPECT
TO SEE PRECIPITATION CHANGE OVER TO SNOW/MIX. DURING THE
TRANSITION THERE LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE WITH VERY LIGHT QPF. WHILE THIS IS EXPECTED TO JUST BE A
TRACE EVENT AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED SINCE IT USUALLY DOES NOT TAKE
A LOT OF ICE TO MAKE THINGS SLICK. FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE NC
MOUNTAINS...BELIEVE THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ARRIVING AS THE
PRECIPITATION IS ENDING SO DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY
GLAZING.
LINGERING FRONTAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHSIDE AND UPSLOPE ALONG
THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL BE ENDING VERY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND IT SHOULD BASICALLY BE DRY WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR
LATE JANUARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EST TUESDAY...
ON THURSDAY THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS...AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROGRESSION THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN KEEPING THE WESTERN FLANK OF
THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATION WITH THE COASTAL LOW JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. OUR LATEST FORECAST WILL REFLECT THIS CONSENSUS.
LIKEWISE...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE
ALSO REMAINS OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND MILDER AS COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY BY A FEW
DEGREES AS S-SW FLOW AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA. INCREASING CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES
EASTWARD INTO PENNSYLVANIA...ALL WHILE ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION. THIS TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. FLURRIES WILL SPILL DOWNSTREAM INTO
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. THESE WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...BUT
WITH A TREND TOWARDS DECREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATES...AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION IS THE WESTERN PART OF GREENBRIER COUNTY AND
THE NORTHERN PART OF SUMMERS COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA. HERE...AMOUNTS
IN THE ONE TO TWO INCH RANGE WILL BE MORE COMMON. WINDS WILL BE ON
THE GUSTY SIDE...WITH SOME OF THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS APPROACHING 45
MPH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT...AT BEST SOME FLURRIES WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN
GREENBRIER COUNTY AS WHAT WERE STRONG NORTHWEST UPSLOPE WINDS...SLOW
IN SPEED AND BACK MORE TO MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT. DRIER AIR
WILL ALSO BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA WITH THE APPROACH OF HIGH
PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST TUESDAY...
SATURDAY INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY...THE SYNOPTIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
TRANSITIONS INTO ONE OF ZONAL FLOW TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP WEATHER SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING 850 MB TEMPERATURES. A DRY WEEKEND IS FORECAST
ALONG WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SOME DISTINCT
DIFFERENCES...BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO
SYSTEMS TO POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION...OR APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND STALL JUST SHY OF THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ALSO...A CLOSED UPPER LOW IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH LIGHT RAIN WITHIN ITS WARM SECTOR REACHING THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL AVERAGE TEN
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1110 PM EST TUESDAY...
SWATH OF PRE-FRONTAL RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF THE
REGION LATE THIS EVENING...MAINLY BLUE RIDGE EAST BUT OVERALL OF
THE LIGHT VARIETY. LATEST HRRR MODEL SLOWLY SHIFTS THIS AXIS EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE IT SLOWS NEAR KDAN
AROUND DAWN ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE RIDES UP THE FRONT.
BEHIND THE FRONT KBLF/KLWB AND PERHAPS KBCB WILL GET INTO SOME
UPSLOPE IFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY PERIODS OF SUB-VFR VSBYS WITH SOME
DRIZZLE/FOG...AND AS TEMPERATURES FALL THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE PRECIPITATION GOES OVER TO LIGHT SNOW
OR FLURRIES LATE. SITES FURTHER EAST WILL HAVE NO PTYPE ISSUES BUT
WILL SEE CIGS LOWER INTO MVFR OVERNIGHT AS RAINFALL INCREASES IN
COVERAGE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE TO
VEER MORE NORTHERLY DURING WEDNESDAY ESPCLY OUT EAST.
EXPECT TO SEE SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST
DURING WEDNESDAY AS A MORE PREDOMINANT NW TRAJECTORY TAKES SHAPE
ALOFT ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO FILTER EAST. HOWEVER MAY TAKE UNTIL
MIDDAY OR LONGER TO BECOME VFR AROUND KDAN WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FINALLY SCATTERING OUT FROM KBCB EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD
ADVECTION LIKELY TO KEEP KBLF/KLWB SUB-VFR WITH PERHAPS IFR AT
TIMES AROUND KBLF GIVEN UPSLOPE FLOW UNTIL IMPROVING SOME LATER IN
THE DAY.
THESE LOWER CIGS MAY LINGER AT KBLF/KLWB INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE GRADUAL DRYING TAKES SHAPE ALLOWING ALL OTHER LOCATIONS TO
REMAIN PRIMARILY VFR OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN MORE IN THE WAY
OF WIDESPREAD VFR AT ALL SITES.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL SWING A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN PERIODS OF -SHSN
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER VFR EXPECTED FROM THE
BLUE RIDGE EAST WHERE WILL REMAIN UNDER DOWNSLOPING FLOW. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/MBS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JH/MBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1054 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A COMPACT
SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THIS
SHORTWAVE IS HELPING TO CREATE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
ACROSS THE REGION. THE BACK EDGE OF THE WIDESPREAD SNOW ACTIVITY
SEEMS TO BE MOVING EAST OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
HOWEVER...BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH SPOTTY FLURRIES EXTEND
INTO MINNESOTA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE
LIGHT SNOW/CLOUD TRENDS TONIGHT...THEN SNOW POTENTIAL WITH A FAST
MOVING CLIPPER ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...COMPACT SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT EASTERN WISCONSIN BY MID-
EVENING...WHICH WILL END THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW CHANCE ACROSS THE
EAST. FLURRIES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING
THOUGH. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST A FEW HOURS
LONGER...BUT BACKING FLOW AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES IN WILL CAUSE
TRAJECTORIES TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMS LOOK
MINOR...ONLY A TENTH OR TWO. OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL
SHIFT INTO THE STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM
THOUGH...SO WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT FOR CLEARING TO
OCCUR. THINK THE COMBO OF CLOUDS AND 5-8 KTS WIND SPEEDS WILL
PREVENT TEMPS FROM PLUMMETING DESPITE THE FRESH SNOW COVER. LOWS
COULD FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS IN THE COLD SPOTS OF N-C
WI...BUT MAINLY LOOKING AT LOW TO MID TEENS FOR TEMPS.
WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THINK WILL HAVE SOME SUN DURING
THE MORNING...BUT CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE LOOKS A LITTLE MORE BULLISH WITH PRECIP
POTENTIAL AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER...AND HAVE INCREASED CHANCES SOME.
COULD SEE A LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCH OVER THE FAR NORTH...AND LESS
THAN AN INCH NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND MAY CREATE MINOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING. HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS QUITE
DYNAMIC BUT SHORT ON MOISTURE. IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AN
INCH OR SO OF SNOW IN THE NORTH WITH LESS TO THE SOUTH. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY THURSDAY THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT.
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD
ALSO BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW IN THE NORTH AND
LESS ELSEWHERE. A WAVE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME
SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THOUGH THERE ARE SOME SUBSTANTIAL
MODEL DIFFERENCES.
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM STILL LOOKS LIKELY SOMETIME EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN ARCTIC HIGH RESIDES ACROSS CANADA WHILE SOUTHWEST UPPER
FLOW BRINGS WARM AND MOIST AIR NORTHWARD. THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST
A SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
WITH HEAVY SNOW OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND FREEZING
RAIN/SNOW/SLEET OR RAIN FURTHER EAST. WOULD EXPECT THE MODELS TO
COME UP WITH VARYING FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT THERE
SHOULD BE A BIG STORM SOMEWHERE OVER THE MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT
LAKES NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
PARTIAL CLEARING IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE SHALLOWS OUT. SATL SHOWS SOME CLEARING IN EASTERN MN
AND FAR WESTERN WI...WHICH ADDS A LITTLE CONFIDENCE TO THE
CLEARING TREND. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION DURING THE MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING ON WEDNESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE
SNOW...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN NORTH CENTRAL WI. AS THE
SNOW TAPERS OFF IN THE EVENING...THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR A FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN C/EC WI.
SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
ARRIVES WEDS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED GUSTY SFC WINDS AND LLWS TO
THE TAFS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
311 AM MST WED JAN 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST WED JAN 27 2016
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER NRN CO THRU TONIGHT. THERE IS A
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE THIS
AFTN AND EVENING. HOWEVER MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE IS CONFINED
TO THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS SO OUTSIDE OF SOME CLOUDS NO PCPN IS
EXPECTED.
AS FOR TEMPS SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S OVER
MOST OF NERN CO HOWEVER LINGERING SNOW COVER OVER WELD AND PORTIONS
OF MORGAN COUNTY MAY KEEP HIGHS THEIR IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IF
INVERSIONS HOLD. HOWEVER BOTH THE HRRR AND RAP WANT TO BREAK THESE
INVERSIONS BY AFTN DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS COMING OFF THE CHEYENNE
RIDGE WHICH CAUSES HIGHS TO BE IN THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP HIGHS COOLER BUT DAY SHIFT MAY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THESE TRENDS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST WED JAN 27 2016
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO THE
CWA ON THURSDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND FAIRLY
WEAK. THE RIDGE WILL START TO FLATTEN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH THE FLOW ALOFT INCREASING AND BECOMING MORE ZONAL. A
WEAK SYSTEM WILL BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN ON FRIDAY AS IT PASSES TO
THE NORTH OF COLORADO. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF A MOUNTAIN WAVE THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS WOULD
APPEAR TO BE ABOVE TIMBERLINE AND IN THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS. PACIFIC
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO
LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW REDEVELOPING
IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AT THAT TIME. THE STRONGER ZONAL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER COLORADO OVER THE WEEKEND. THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE DENVER AREA BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SATURDAY EVENING...THEN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE COLDER ON SUNDAY WITH A SLGT
CHC OF PCPN CONTINUING ON SUNDAY AS WELL. THE FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR
THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS LATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ITS
TRACK. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER...THE MDLS MOVE THIS DIGGING TROUGH
INTO SRN UT BY 12Z MONDAY THEN SHIFT IT INTO SERN CO BY 00Z
TUESDAY. IF THIS OCCURS...THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
WITH A DEEP AND EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE. STRONG QG ASCENT WILL DEVELOP AT THE SFC AND ALOFT AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. WL GO WITH 50 PERCENT POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. FAR TOO EARLY FOR HIGHLIGHTS...BUT WE
WILL BE WATCHING THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY. IF THE MDLS
REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING/TRACK THEN A WINTER STORM WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED AT SOME POINT DURING THE WEEKEND. AVG
12-24HR SNOW AMOUNTS BY 12Z TUESDAY RANGE FROM GFS/ECMWF 6-12
INCHES...THE GFS IS THE HIGHER OF THE TWO. THE CANADIAN IS A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LOW...SO LESSER AMOUNTS
GENERATED WITH THIS ONE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST WED JAN 27 2016
VFR FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. DRAINAGE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. BY EARLY AFTN LOOKS LIKE A LONGMONT ANTICYCLONE MAY DVLP
DUE TO NWLY WINDS OVER THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. THIS ALLOWS FOR WINDS TO
BECOME NNE BY 19Z THRU 23Z. AFTER 23Z THE ANTICYCLONE WILL
BREAKDOWN WHICH ALLOWS WINDS TO SWITCH BACK TO DRAINAGE BY EARLY
EVENING.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1017 AM EST WED JAN 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A
FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LAST AND MOST DOMINATE
IN THE SERIES WILL BEGIN LIFTING FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST
LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATED RELATIVELY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR WITH A
WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT. THIS HAS HELPED LIMIT RAIN ASSOCIATED
MAINLY WITH DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE HRRR HAS
INDICATED SOME INCREASE IN RAIN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
POSSIBLY AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED BY
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
MOISTURE FLUX. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF 250 MB JET OVER FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA SHOULD
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN RAIN AREA. THE MODELS INDICATE A TIGHT
MOISTURE GRADIENT THOUGH AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN POOR.
SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT THINK LOWER POPS IN THE WEST/NORTH
MIDLANDS/PIEDMONT WHERE DRIER AIR MAY ADVECT INTO THE AREA BECAUSE
OF INCREASING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WEST FLOW. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. LEANED TOWARD THE
LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS WITH AN IN-
SITU WEDGE. THURSDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE LOWER IN THE
EAST AND PEE DEE...LIKELY IN THE 40S. CLEARING AND WARMER FRIDAY
WITH LONG-WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...DOWNSLOPE FLOW
AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING EAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND GULF COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. THE MODELS KEEP SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WEST AND NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
PLUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATE POPS LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO 20
PERCENT. COLD ADVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT AND STRONG NET RADIATIONAL
COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT SUPPORT LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING. AIR
MASS MODIFICATION AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA DURING THE REST
OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING EAST AND OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED AND ALL TAF SITES ARE CURRENTLY
VFR. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES. CEILINGS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY RETURNS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH SPEED BETWEEN 5 AND
10 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFFSHORE FROM FLORIDA TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1008 AM EST WED JAN 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A
FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LAST AND MOST DOMINATE
IN THE SERIES WILL BEGIN LIFTING FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST
LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATED RELATIVELY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR WITH A
WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT. THIS HAS HELPED LIMIT RAIN ASSOCIATED
MAINLY WITH DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE HRRR HAS
INDICATED SOME INCREASE IN RAIN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
POSSIBLY AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED BY
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. BELIEVE CLOUDINESS WILL HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES BUT THE
INVERSION INDICATES IT COULD BECOME MUCH WARMER THAN FORECAST IF
SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS OCCURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
MOISTURE FLUX. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF 250 MB JET OVER FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA SHOULD
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN RAIN AREA. THE MODELS INDICATE A TIGHT
MOISTURE GRADIENT THOUGH AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN POOR.
SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT THINK LOWER POPS IN THE WEST/NORTH
MIDLANDS/PIEDMONT WHERE DRIER AIR MAY ADVECT INTO THE AREA BECAUSE
OF INCREASING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WEST FLOW. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. LEANED TOWARD THE
LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS WITH AN IN-
SITU WEDGE. THURSDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE LOWER IN THE
EAST AND PEE DEE...LIKELY IN THE 40S. CLEARING AND WARMER FRIDAY
WITH LONG-WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...DOWNSLOPE FLOW
AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING EAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND GULF COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. THE MODELS KEEP SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WEST AND NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
PLUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATE POPS LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO 20
PERCENT. COLD ADVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT AND STRONG NET RADIATIONAL
COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT SUPPORT LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING. AIR
MASS MODIFICATION AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA DURING THE REST
OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING EAST AND OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED AND ALL TAF SITES ARE CURRENTLY
VFR. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES. CEILINGS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY RETURNS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH SPEED BETWEEN 5 AND
10 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFFSHORE FROM FLORIDA TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
909 AM EST WED JAN 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A
FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LAST AND MOST DOMINATE
IN THE SERIES WILL BEGIN LIFTING FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST
LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATED RELATIVELY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR WITH A
WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT. THIS HAS HELPED LIMIT RAIN ASSOCIATED
MAINLY WITH DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE HRRR HAS
INDICATED SOME INCREASE IN RAIN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
POSSIBLY AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED BY
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. BELIEVE CLOUDINESS WILL HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES BUT THE
INVERSION INDICATES IT COULD BECOME MUCH WARMER THAN FORECAST IF
SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS OCCURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
MOISTURE FLUX. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF 250 MB JET OVER FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA SHOULD
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN RAIN AREA. THE MODELS INDICATE A TIGHT
MOISTURE GRADIENT THOUGH AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN POOR.
SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT THINK LOWER POPS IN THE WEST/NORTH
MIDLANDS/PIEDMONT WHERE DRIER AIR MAY ADVECT INTO THE AREA BECAUSE
OF INCREASING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WEST FLOW. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. LEANED TOWARD THE
LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS WITH AN IN-
SITU WEDGE. THURSDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE LOWER IN THE
EAST AND PEE DEE...LIKELY IN THE 40S. CLEARING AND WARMER FRIDAY
WITH LONG-WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...DOWNSLOPE FLOW
AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING EAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND GULF COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. THE MODELS KEEP SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WEST AND NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
PLUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATE POPS LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO 20
PERCENT. COLD ADVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT AND STRONG NET RADIATIONAL
COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT SUPPORT LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING. AIR
MASS MODIFICATION AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA DURING THE REST
OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MIX OF CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS THE UPSTATE CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD
THE TAF SITES WITH NETWORK WSR-88D SHOWING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH INCREASING SHOWERS CROSSING CENTRAL GA. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THEN
BECOME MORE SCATTERED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY BY MID MORNING...THEN TO
NORTHEAST FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
SPEED BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS. WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWERS
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LOWER AND THICKEN WITH MAINLY MVFR AND IFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY
AS WEAL LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFFSHORE FROM FLORIDA TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
547 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 218 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
Longwave trough continues to push southeast out the area, clearing
Kansas in the overnight hours. Attention on latest water vapor
imagery is brought to the Saskatchewan/Montana area as a shortwave
was moving southeast across this area. Weak surface pressure falls
behind the departing weak surface anticyclone bringing light south
to southwest winds to many local sites overnight. RAP data
indicating 10-15kt southwest winds around 800ft AGL and seems to be
enough to keep any fog formation in check.
The northern upper wave continues southeast into the Great Lakes
area today and tonight. A weak surface trough passes late tonight,
with southwest winds increasing a bit today and providing enough
mixing into a warming 850-925mb airmass for a noticeably warmer day
today despite increasing mid and high cloud. The remaining snowpack
over northern and western areas may hold temps back a bit, but
should still be able to reach into the 40s here. The warmer airmass
and more mixing tonight should keep lows in the mid to upper 20s as
the clouds thin.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 218 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
Temperatures aloft continue to rise through the mid and late week,
bringing highs in the 50s Thursday with upper 50s to lower 60s by
Friday. Weak shortwave trof skims the area Friday into Friday
night, but temperatures recover quickly behind the system to
still bring highs in the 50s on Saturday. This may be underdone if
pool of warmer mid level temps ahead of the next front can park
overhead and mix into this layer with southerly winds that day.
Sunday may start out warm, but with front passing through the day
temperatures start to fall in the afternoon. There are model
differences in how fast the next northern clipper moves to the
east, and how much cold air it moves southeast in the process,
with EC colder than the GFS for Sunday. Both have our area north
of the front on Monday with overrunning precipitation intensifying
as the next upper trof approaches.
Latest EC by sunrise Tuesday is wound up over SC Kansas with
strong winds and snow driving southward across western Kansas. GFS
is slower and farther south, with an elongated surface low
stretching SW to NE across Missouri, while the EC already has the
low into Illinois. Several of the GFS ensemble 500mb height
comparisons are quite different in how they handle the system as
it moves out of the west, and is still quite early to jump on any
one solution given the system is somewhere out over the Bering
Sea. Current runs of operational GFS and EC bring accumulating
snow and strong winds to our western counties. Still considerable
uncertainty, with this possible stronger solution noteworthy.
Lots of time for forecast track and strength to shift around.
Worth keeping an eye on, while still noting the system is at least
6 days out.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 547 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
VFR conditions should continue. Winds are the main challenge,
particularly with mixing depths from 15Z-22Z. Bumped up speeds a
bit, with some gusts at FOE, but confidence is not high. Wind
shift to the west looks a bit later than earlier forecasts.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
408 AM MST WED JAN 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 AM MST WED JAN 27 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A LARGE
SCALE RIDGE WITH 582 DM CENTER EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN US
WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS OUR CWA. AT THE THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FROM EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
RIDGE WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY. A DEEP DRY AIR MASS WILL
PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CHANCES DESPITE A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSAGES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MAIN IMPACT ON THESE
FEATURES WILL BE PASSING MID-HIGH CLOUDS WHICH COULD COMPLICATE
DIURNAL TRENDS AND DAYTIME MIXING. OVERALL EXPECT THE SHORT RANGE
PERIOD TO BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL AND DRY. OVERALL TREND IN GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING BETTER DOWNSLOPE AND WAA PARTICULARLY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND I TRENDED TEMPS UP OVER PARTS OF OUR CWA. FRIDAY IS A
LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED REGARDING HIGHS AS MODELS ARE SHOWING PRE
FRONTAL TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTH AND FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF OUR CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. RESULT COULD BE HIGHS IN THE
SOUTH APPROACHING 70 IN OUR SOUTH AND HIGHS IN THE NORTH COOLER
THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED.
REGARDING FIRE WEATHER TODAY...IF MIXING IS NOT HAMPERED BY
INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE GUSTS
20-25 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. BEST CHANCE FOR RH TO APPROACH
15 PERCENT IS STILL IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA...AND AS
OF CURRENT SOUNDINGS IT STILL LOOKS LIKE RH SHOULD REMAIN JUST
ABOVE THIS. EVEN IF THERE IS A BRIEF/LOCALIZED CROSSOVER OF 15% RH
AND 25 MPH WIND GUSTS THIS WILL LIKELY NOT REACH OUR 3HR
REQUIREMENT FOR RFW. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TODAY...AND KEEP
MENTION IN HWO FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM MST WED JAN 27 2016
UPPER FLOW SHOULD BE ZONAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES
SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY. THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH
SHOULD BE OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE
MISSOURI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN
BEHIND THE EXITING STORM TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN FEATURES
OF THE TROUGH. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT IN EARLIER WHILE THE GFS HOLDS
IT OVER THE AREA LONGER. BOTH MODELS BRING THE STORM ACROSS THE
FAVORED PANHANDLE REGION WHICH WOULD PRODUCE A GOOD SNOWFALL EVENT
FOR THE FA. IF SIGNIFICANT SNOW FALLS...WINDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY COULD CREATE ISSUES WITH TRAVEL. DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING... THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A
COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH READINGS FROM 40 TO 45. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL GET PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WITH READINGS FROM 35 TO 40
MONDAY AND 25 TO 30 TUESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY COOL
INTO THE 20S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. COLDER MIN TEMPERATURES
IN THE TEENS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MST WED JAN 27 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS COMBINED WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NW WINDS DEVELOPING AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON (20-30KT
POSSIBLE). THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW 12KT AFTER SUNSET AND
WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO THE WEST.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
606 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
FIRST ISSUE THIS MORNING IS A FOG BANK THAT DEVELOPED OVER SW MN
EARLIER TONIGHT WITHIN A LITTLE BUBBLE RIDGE AXIS AND CLEAR SKIES.
ABOUT A 50 MILE WIDE BANK OF FOG DEVELOPED...WHICH HAS BEEN SLOWLY
PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE. LOOKING AT
RWIS AND AIRPORT SENSORS...VISIBILITY IN THIS BANK OF FOG IS DOWN
BETWEEN 1/8TH AND 1/2 MILE. THE HRRR HAS ACTUALLY PICKED UP ON THIS
FOG BANK AND ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION...THOUGH IS A BIT FAST. THE
BIG ISSUE THOUGH IS THE FOG BANK LOOKS TO MAKE IT INTO THE TWIN
CITIES DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE AND WILL CAUSE HUGE HEADACHES AT
MSP IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT HAS ALL NIGHT. BASED ON THE HRRR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS...WAS DETERMINED THAT IT WOULD BE BEST TO BRING IT
INTO MSP...WITH 12Z TO 14Z BEING THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEEING IT.
AFTER THAT...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE POTENT UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN. HI-RES GUIDANCE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH THE COMBINATION OF WARM FRONTAL FORCING
AND STRONG PV-ADVECTION RESULTING IN A NARROW BAND OF PRECIP MOVING
THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE CAMS TO BRING THIS
NARROW BAND OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. ONE
CONCERN THOUGH WITH GETTING PRECIP IS THE VERY DRY LAYER OF AIR ON
THE KMPX SOUNDING LAST NIGHT BETWEEN 800 AND 500 HPA. FORCING COMING
IN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND MAY NOT HANG AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO
MOISTEN THIS LAYER ENOUGH TO ALLOW PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG CAM AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL AGREEMENT IN
SOME LIGHT PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND...DECIDED TO BRING A BAND OF
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE AREA. FOR P-TYPE...WE WILL SEE A
VERY WARM LAYER OF AIR COMING IN AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT
ALOFT...WITH A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LIKELY FOR ANY PRECIP
THAT FALLS SOUTHWEST OF AN ALEXANDRIA...SW TWIN CITIES METRO...
ROCHESTER LINE. BESIDE THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING THIS
MIXED PRECIP...P-TYPE OUTPUTS FROM THE CAMS SHOW A SIMILAR SCENARIO.
FORTUNATELY...WHATEVER FALLS...IT DOES NOT LOOK TO LAST MUCH MORE
THAN AN HOUR OR TWO...SO WILL SEE MINIMAL IMPACTS. THE ONLY AREA
THAT WILL SEE PRECIP CHANCES A BIT LONG ARE FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF
A RUSH CITY/EAU CLAIRE LINE. THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE MAIN
ISENTROPIC LIFT GOING ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD AND NRN WI...SO THEY
WILL GET ON THAT ALONG WITH THE PV FORCING. HERE...WE ARE STILL
CALLING FOR 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW.
WITH THE WARM AIR COMING IN TODAY...WE WILL SEE A NICE WARMING IN
TEMPERATURES...WITH MID/UPPER 30S STILL LOOKING LIKELY IN MN /WITH
A 40 NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN WEST CENTRAL MN/ WITH MORE
LOWER/MID 30S IN WRN WI...WHERE 925-850 TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER. TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE MILD AS WELL...AS COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW WILL BE MORE OF A BACK DOOR FRONT COMING
DOWN FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL KEEP US IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND
WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER FOR ERN MN/WRN WI EXPECTED...WE WILL
LIKELY SEE MANY AREAS THERE STAY IN THE 30S OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
A RATHER ACTIVE LONG TERM AHEAD WITH AT LEAST THREE DIFFERENT
WEATHER SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDINESS. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHING NW TO SE ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER AREA. THIS IS
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON EASTWARD AS THE
BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY EAST. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED AT THIS
POINT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE BY THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MN ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING
AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL BELOW
FREEZING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY
MORNING FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON WESTWARD WITH SOME SNOW AND SLEET
POSSIBLE IN WESTERN WI. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DUE TO THE MOISTURE PROFILE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS REMAINING
IN PLACE. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM THE TWIN CITIES
ON WEST WHILE A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE TO THE EAST.
A CHANCE OF SNOW IS IN STORE FOR THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS A MID LEVEL WAVE AND FRONTOGENETIC
ZONE MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. IF THE CONTINUITY
WITH THESE FEATURES CONTINUE...THEN THE POPS IN THE FORECAST ARE
WAY TOO LOW AND SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW MAY OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. FORTUNATELY...HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE
RATHER MILD AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. THE SNOW COULD MIX
WITH SOME RAIN AT TIMES AND TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.
MONDAY IS THE ONLY DAY IN THE LONG TERM WITH LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE BRIEF DRY PERIOD
WILL GIVE WAY TO A LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM FROM TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. GOOD CONTINUITY CONTINUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON
THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY. THE TRACK WOULD CERTAINLY BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
SNOW (6 INCHES OR MORE) TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN MN...THE TWIN CITIES
AND WESTERN WI. THIS IS CERTAINLY A SYSTEM TO KEEP AN EYE ON. THE
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IS REALLY STRONG ON THE LAST 5 RUNS OF THE
GFS FROM 204 HOURS TO 180 HOURS. EVEN THE ENSEMBLE DATA HAS A MEAN
TRACK VERY CLOSE TO THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS. HENCE...WITH THE
CONFIDENCE PRETTY HIGH ON SNOW OCCURRING...WE RAISED POPS INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY OVER SOUTHERN MN FOR TUESDAY AND ACROSS THE TWIN
CITIES AND WESTERN WI TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 606 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
BANK OF DENSE FOG THAT HAS BEEN APPROACHING THE TWIN CITIES
METRO...BUT IS STARTING TO DISSIPATE. STILL WE HAVE SEEN A 200
FOOT CIG COME INTO FCM. WILL KEEP THE LOW CIG MENTION GOING FOR
MSP...BUT IT MAY NOT GET THERE...WILL BE CLOSE THOUGH. FOR BAND OF
PRECIP COMING AT US IN NODAK...WE HAVE YET TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF PRECIP REPORTS AND THE HOPWRF IS STARTING TO BACK AWAY FROM ITS
PRECIP DEPICTION ACROSS MN...SO HAVE STARTED TO PULL BACK WITH
PRECIP MENTION ACROSS MN TERMINALS AS WELL...LEAVING IN TEMPO
GROUPS AS WELL. DO EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO RETURN ALONG AND NORTHEAST
OF I-94 LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE IF THEY GET
INTO AXN/RWF AND CURRENT TAFS MAY BE A BIT PESSIMISTIC ON CIG
HEIGHTS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THOUGH CIG AND PRECIP MAY
HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE...DO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND
FORECAST...THOUGH DID HAVE TO DELAY SHIFT TO THE NW A FEW HOURS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS FROM WHAT WAS IN THE 6Z TAFS.
KMSP...MSP MAY LUCK OUT THIS MORNING AND HAVE WHATS LEFT OF LAST
NIGHTS BANK OF DENSE FOG FIZZLE OUT BETWEEN IT AND FCM. SNOW
POTENTIAL AROUND 18Z IS ALSO STARTING TO LOOK A LITTLE LESS LIKELY
AND WE MAY BE ABLE TO COMPLETELY REMOVE IT WITH THE 15Z AMD. CIG
FORECAST AFTER 20Z MAY BE A BIT PESSIMISTIC IN TERMS MVFR
LEVELS...THOUGH DO THINK WE EVENTUALLY END UP THERE BY THURSDAY
MORNING...THOUGH HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 017.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR EARLY. NW WIND 10 KTS.
FRI...MVFR. CHC -FZRA/-IP IN MRNG AND -RA IN AFTN. SW WIND 10-15
KTS.
SAT...CHC MVFR. SW WIND 5-10 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
513 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
THE ARCTIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NRN
SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING WILL DIVE TO THE MINNESOTA ARROW HEAD BY
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW SHOULD INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN NEB. THE FRONT
SHOULD REMAIN OVER OR NORTHEAST OF THE MISSOURI BASIN TONIGHT. THE
MODELS SHOW WARM AIR BACKFILLING ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES IN ALBERTA. THUS THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS WITH
THERMAL RIDGING ACROSS NEB THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE RAP INDICATES THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
THIS MORNING WILL DECAY AS THEY MOVE SOUTH AS A RESULT OF MID LEVEL
DIVERGENCE. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A PERIOD OF
DEEP VERTICAL MIXING SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS. THE ECS GUIDANCE SHOWS 51F FOR A HIGH AT VALENTINE. THE
FORECAST USES A BLEND OF THE WARMER MAV...EKD AND ECS GUIDANCE PLUS
BIAS CORRECTION FOR HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTN. SFC MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE
NRN ROCKIES INTO ERN MT WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THUS WARMER
TEMPERATURES...STRONG WINDS AND WET BULB TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S WILL ACCELERATE SNOW MELT.
850-700MB WINDS OF 25 TO 40 KT AND THERMAL RIDGING TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOWS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 DESPITE GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
VERY MILD CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH FOUR
DAYS /INCLUDING TODAY/ IN THE 50S ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. A BIT COOLER IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE MILD WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A PLUME OF WARM AIR ALOFT /H850 MB TEMPS OF
7C TO 12C/. FRIDAY LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE FOUR DAYS...AS A
WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WILL HELP MIX THE WARM
AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A LEAD SHORTWAVE...AHEAD OF MONDAY AND
TUESDAYS STORM SYSTEM...WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW. TEMPERATURES BORDER LINE
FOR SNOW...WITH H850MB TEMPERATURES BARELY BELOW FREEZING AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S SATURDAY NIGHT AND UPPER 30S AND
40S SUNDAY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. TONIGHTS
27/00Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM A BIT
SOUTH OF THE 26/12Z RUNS. FURTHER SHIFTING IS OF COURSE EXPECTED THE
NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
THE 27/00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS ALSO SHIFTED EVER SO SLIGHTLY SOUTH
OF THE 26/12Z MEAN. THE MEAN CENTERS A HEAVY QPF CENTER NEAR MCCOOK
OF 1.2 INCHES LIQUID. AT NORTH PLATTE THE MEAN IS AROUND 0.75 OF AN
INCH...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH. THE TREND IN THE MODELS
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR FURTHER SHIFTING IN
THE STORM TRACK. WITH THE SHIFT SOUTH IN TONIGHTS MODEL
RUNS...DECIDED TO LEAVE POPS AT 50 PERCENT OR LESS FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. DID NOT WANT TO INTRODUCE
LIKELY POPS AT THIS POINT IN CASE THE SOUTHWARD TREND AWAY FROM THE
AREA CONTINUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 513 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
SASKACTHEWAN WILL MOVE INTO NRN MN TONIGHT. SCT-BKN150-200 CLOUDS
ACROSS ERN MT MOVE ACROSS WRN/NCNTL NEB TODAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1000 AM EST WED JAN 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT ALONG WITH QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. MAY SEE A SHORT
PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR ARRIVES
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS WHICH DEPICT THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
REACHING THE NY/PA BORDER, I EXPANDED POPS INTO THE TWIN TIERS,
WHERE A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE IN BRIEF
SHOWERS.
THE MOST PERSISTENT LES ACTIVITY HAS DEPARTED THE NORTHERN FA, SO
I WILL ALLOW POPS TO DROP DOWN TO HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY OVER THE
NEXT HOUR, AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
MAXES LOOK GOOD. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3-6
HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS...CURRENTLY EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO ONEIDA...ONONDAGA AND
MADISON COUNTIES AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE FINGER LAKES THIS
MORNING.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TO BE A SMALL ENOUGH EVENT FOR THE ABOVE
MENTIONED AREAS TO NOT ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. EXPECTING
AROUND 1 TO 4 INCHES IN ONEIDA COUNTY...1 TO 2 INCHES IN ONONDAGA
AND MADISON COUNTIES AND AN INCH OR LESS FROM SENECA AND SRN CAYUGA
OVER TO OTSEGO COUNTY.
A STRONG 1000-950MB CONVERGENT ZONE IS BEGINNING TO SET UP ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO AND WILL INTENSIFY AND DROP SOUTHWARD FROM AROUND 11-
15Z. COLD AIR IS ADVECTING IN FROM THE NW ALONG A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS...AND IS COOLING THE AIR ALOFT FASTER THAN THE SFC. THIS
WILL ALLOW LOW LVL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN THIS MORNING AND CREATE
ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL NY. THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER OFF THE RAP AND THE NAM
BOTH INDICATE THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SQUALLS ALONG SERN
PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO AND AREAS INLAND THIS MORNING. SO...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS AS THEY DEVELOP FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
BRIEF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS DURING OR JUST AFTER THE MORNING COMMUTE.
THERE ARE A FEW LIMITING FACTORS WITH THIS EVENT...WHICH WILL KEEP
SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE LOWER SIDE. THE AMT OF DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING
AND THE AIR ALOFT IS NOT AT LEVELS WHICH PROMPT THE HEAVY LES. 850MB
TEMPS ARE ONLY AROUND -10 TO -12 DEG C. BOTH OF THESE WILL HINDER
THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW. THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IS VERY SMALL
AS WELL. BL WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW BETWEEN 10-12Z AND REMAIN
FAVORABLE THROUGH 16-18Z THIS MORNING BEFORE BACKING BACK TO THE SW.
THE LIMITING FACTORS FOR THIS EVENT SEEM TO OUTWEIGH THE
SUPPORTIVE FACTORS...SO HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY
AND GO WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT TO THREAT OF
LES THIS MORNING.
HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOWER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT ALONG WITH A DRIER AIR
MASS AND A SWLY WIND FLOW. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW THE LES TO
COME TO AN END AND KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES IN FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY. THERMAL PROFILES WILL REMAIN
COLD ENOUGH THROUGH THE DURATION OF THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE EXPECTED
TO TRACK THROUGH NRN NEW ENGLAND TO KEEP ALL THE PRECIP IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AND KEEP THE
SNOW AMTS LIGHT. ANOTHER COLD PUSH OF CANADIAN AIR ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO AND INTO CENTRAL NY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR THE NEXT PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
SNOWFALL AMTS MAY BE MORE DUE TO A LONGER PERIOD OF SNOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
215 PM TUE UPDATE...
IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL BE
EMBEDDED WITH WEAK WAVES YET OVERALL WILL BECOME ZONAL OVER THE
WEEKEND...ORIENTATING MORE WSW-ENE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LONG
STORY SHORT IS THAT NO BIG SYSTEMS ARE FORESEEN...AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL.
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION SIDE OF A WEAKENING CLIPPER COULD BRING A
QUICK BATCH OF SNOW SHOWERS-FLURRIES SATURDAY...MIXING WITH RAIN
SHOWERS-SPRINKLES. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THIS WILL BE IN CENTRAL
NEW YORK...BUT WHEREVER IT OCCURS THE ACTIVITY WILL BE QUITE
LIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY...BUT ANOTHER CLIPPER LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY COULD YIELD ANOTHER MINOR BATCH OF MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW...TIMING DIFFERS BY MODEL YET AGAIN ALL OF IT LIGHT.
ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS FORESEEN BEHIND THE CLIPPER MONDAY
NIGHT...STILL WARMER THAN CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUGGEST.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA TODAY AS COOLER TEMPS ALOFT ARE PRESENT
RESULTING IN THE INVERSION HEIGHTS BEING LOWERED. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS HAS ALSO DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING AS NW FLOW FUNNELS ACROSS THE LAKES
MAKING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE FOR THE CONTINUATION OF
LE SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. IFR VISBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT KSYR AND
KRME BEFORE 18Z. LE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT WITH ACCUMULATIONS LESS
THAN 4 INCHES.
WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AND LIGHT THROUGH THE MID MORNING... THEN
TRANSITIONING TO THE NW AROUND 12 KNOTS... WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.
.OUTLOOK...
THU...VFR.
FRI-SAT-SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHSN FRI...AND MIXED
SHRA/SHSN OVER THE WEEKEND. MAINLY VFR FOR KAVP.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT/DJP
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...KAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
642 AM EST WED JAN 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT ALONG WITH QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. MAY SEE A SHORT
PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR ARRIVES
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS...CURRENTLY EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO ONEIDA...ONONDAGA AND
MADISON COUNTIES AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE FINGER LAKES THIS
MORNING.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TO BE A SMALL ENOUGH EVENT FOR THE ABOVE
MENTIONED AREAS TO NOT ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. EXPECTING
AROUND 1 TO 4 INCHES IN ONEIDA COUNTY...1 TO 2 INCHES IN ONONDAGA
AND MADISON COUNTIES AND AN INCH OR LESS FROM SENECA AND SRN CAYUGA
OVER TO OTSEGO COUNTY.
A STRONG 1000-950MB CONVERGENT ZONE IS BEGINNING TO SET UP ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO AND WILL INTENSIFY AND DROP SOUTHWARD FROM AROUND 11-
15Z. COLD AIR IS ADVECTING IN FROM THE NW ALONG A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS...AND IS COOLING THE AIR ALOFT FASTER THAN THE SFC. THIS
WILL ALLOW LOW LVL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN THIS MORNING AND CREATE
ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL NY. THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER OFF THE RAP AND THE NAM
BOTH INDICATE THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SQUALLS ALONG SERN
PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO AND AREAS INLAND THIS MORNING. SO...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS AS THEY DEVELOP FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
BRIEF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS DURING OR JUST AFTER THE MORNING COMMUTE.
THERE ARE A FEW LIMITING FACTORS WITH THIS EVENT...WHICH WILL KEEP
SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE LOWER SIDE. THE AMT OF DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING
AND THE AIR ALOFT IS NOT AT LEVELS WHICH PROMPT THE HEAVY LES. 850MB
TEMPS ARE ONLY AROUND -10 TO -12 DEG C. BOTH OF THESE WILL HINDER
THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW. THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IS VERY SMALL
AS WELL. BL WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW BETWEEN 10-12Z AND REMAIN
FAVORABLE THROUGH 16-18Z THIS MORNING BEFORE BACKING BACK TO THE SW.
THE LIMITING FACTORS FOR THIS EVENT SEEM TO OUTWEIGH THE
SUPPORTIVE FACTORS...SO HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY
AND GO WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT TO THREAT OF
LES THIS MORNING.
HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOWER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT ALONG WITH A DRIER AIR
MASS AND A SWLY WIND FLOW. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW THE LES TO
COME TO AN END AND KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES IN FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY. THERMAL PROFILES WILL REMAIN
COLD ENOUGH THROUGH THE DURATION OF THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE EXPECTED
TO TRACK THROUGH NRN NEW ENGLAND TO KEEP ALL THE PRECIP IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AND KEEP THE
SNOW AMTS LIGHT. ANOTHER COLD PUSH OF CANADIAN AIR ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO AND INTO CENTRAL NY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR THE NEXT PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
SNOWFALL AMTS MAY BE MORE DUE TO A LONGER PERIOD OF SNOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
215 PM TUE UPDATE...
IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL BE
EMBEDDED WITH WEAK WAVES YET OVERALL WILL BECOME ZONAL OVER THE
WEEKEND...ORIENTATING MORE WSW-ENE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LONG
STORY SHORT IS THAT NO BIG SYSTEMS ARE FORESEEN...AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL.
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION SIDE OF A WEAKENING CLIPPER COULD BRING A
QUICK BATCH OF SNOW SHOWERS-FLURRIES SATURDAY...MIXING WITH RAIN
SHOWERS-SPRINKLES. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THIS WILL BE IN CENTRAL
NEW YORK...BUT WHEREVER IT OCCURS THE ACTIVITY WILL BE QUITE
LIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY...BUT ANOTHER CLIPPER LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY COULD YIELD ANOTHER MINOR BATCH OF MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW...TIMING DIFFERS BY MODEL YET AGAIN ALL OF IT LIGHT.
ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS FORESEEN BEHIND THE CLIPPER MONDAY
NIGHT...STILL WARMER THAN CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUGGEST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA TODAY AS COOLER TEMPS ALOFT ARE PRESENT
RESULTING IN THE INVERSION HEIGHTS BEING LOWERED. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS HAS ALSO DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING AS NW FLOW FUNNELS ACROSS THE LAKES
MAKING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE FOR THE CONTINUATION OF
LE SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. IFR VISBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT KSYR AND
KRME BEFORE 18Z. LE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT WITH ACCUMULATIONS LESS
THAN 4 INCHES.
WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AND LIGHT THROUGH THE MID MORNING... THEN
TRANSITIONING TO THE NW AROUND 12 KNOTS... WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.
.OUTLOOK...
THU...VFR.
FRI-SAT-SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHSN FRI...AND MIXED
SHRA/SHSN OVER THE WEEKEND. MAINLY VFR FOR KAVP.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...KAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
854 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
OPTED TO GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE
NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FAIRLY STRONG
ACROSS THE AREA AND A FEW WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH HAVE BEEN
REPORTED. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING WINDS DIMINISHING
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THUS HAVE THE ENDED THE ADVISORY BY 3PM
CDT. ALSO INCREASED TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AS OBS SHOWED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS A LITTLE BEHIND.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
THE CORE OF 5 MB/3 HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE RISES IS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF ND AS OF 12 UTC...AND RAP GUIDANCE /WHICH HAS
BEEN CAPTURING THIS FEATURE WELL/ TAKES IT SOUTHEAST ACROSS WEST
AND CENTRAL ND BY MIDDAY...WHILE WEAKENING ITS MAGNITUDE. WE HAVE
CHOSEN TO CONTINUE MESSAGING THE SURGE OF STRONG WINDS THAT WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT INSTEAD OF
A WIND ADVISORY SINCE THE WINDS ARE DRIVEN BY ISALLOBARIC FORCING
AND THUS SHOULD DECREASE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AFTER ONLY A FEW
HOURS. THAT HAS BEEN THE THEME IN UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS OVERNIGHT.
IF THE WELL-MIXED LAYER DEEPENS SUFFICIENTLY THEN THE WINDS COULD
REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER NORTH CENTRAL ND...BUT WE
STILL ARE NOT CONFIDENT THAT WILL OCCUR.
OTHERWISE...THE BATCH OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WITH THE WARM FRONT
HAS EXITED THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AS OF 1230 UTC...BRINGING AN
END TO THAT THREAT. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS
UPDATE TO CAPTURE THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE A WINDOW OF
LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAIN REGION SOUTH THROUGH THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...THEN A SURGE
OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING.
CURRENTLY...STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
RAPIDLY MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. WAA
AHEAD OF THE WAVE COUPLED WITH AN INCREASING WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES WARMING UP INTO THE 30S WEST WITH
THIS TREND CONTINUING EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
COUPLE OF CONCERNS WITH THE CLIPPER...THE FIRST BEING FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS MY NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
SOUTH THROUGH WELLS AND FOSTER COUNTY. THIS THREAT SHOULD BE OVER
BY 12Z FOR THESE AREAS. DO NOT FEEL THE NEED FOR A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY AS THE PRECIPITATION IS MOVING SO FAST AND ACCUMULATIONS
WILL GENERALLY BE VERY LIGHT.
SECOND CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH.
WIND GUST OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH PEAK AT 40-45KTS...WITH GUSTS THEN TAPERING OFF BACK INTO
THE 25-30KT RANGE. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THE PEAK WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE...WITH THIS INITIAL WIND SURGE ONLY
LASTING FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. WITH SUB-ADVISORY WINDS FORECAST FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...OPTED TO AN ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT VERSUS A WIND ADVISORY. REASONING: THINK AN ADVISORY IS
OVERKILL FOR AN EVENT WHERE WE WILL ONLY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR AN OB OR TWO WITH THE MIXED LAYER SO SHALLOW AND CAA RATHER
WEAK. WE FELT A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS A BETTER PRODUCT FOR
THIS SCENARIO AND STILL CONVEYS THE WIND THREAT.
WINDS REMAIN BREEZY TONIGHT EAST...TAPERING OFF IN THE EVENING
WEST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
MILD WEATHER WILL FINISH OUT THIS WEEK...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY. A COOLING TREND IS STILL EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
ON THE LARGE SCALE...THE 00 UTC MODEL SUITE AGREED THAT SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AHEAD OF A SERIES OF
IMPULSES THAT WILL ESTABLISH A MEAN 500-MB TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES BY THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY WARM AIR WITH
850-MB TEMPERATURES UP TO +11 C WILL ADVECT EASTWARD INTO WESTERN
ND BY LATE THURSDAY...WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE TRANSLATING EAST AND
WEAKENING BY FRIDAY AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER CROSSES THE AREA. THIS
WILL YIELD WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY
ON FRIDAY WHEN BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL BE MORE EFFICIENT. WIND
POTENTIAL IS ALSO ON OUR MINDS HEADING INTO FRIDAY AS WINDS ALOFT
INCREASE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWS THE ALBERTA CLIPPER...BUT
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS AS THE 00
UTC GUIDANCE HAS A FAIR SPREAD IN 850-MB WIND SPEEDS FROM ONLY 40
KT ON THE NAM TO 55 KT ON THE GFS.
LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL EXIST WITH THE FRIDAY SYSTEM...BUT
IF ANYTHING THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUGGESTED LESS MOISTURE POTENTIAL
IN THAT TIME FRAME THAN EARLIER CYCLES. THEREAFTER...BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SUGGESTED ANOTHER IMPULSE COULD YIELD SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING...AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO
SUNDAY. A MUCH STRONGER...GREATER-AMPLITUDE WAVE IS THEN EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY MONDAY...AND THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY ABOUT TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE 00 UTC MODELS CONTINUED TO
KEEP THIS COLORADO LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...LEAVING US
WITH ONLY A COOL-DOWN TOWARD NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
A SURGE OF STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40 KT
WILL AFFECT MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND BEFORE 18 UTC...WITH
WINDS REMAINING GUSTY...BUT SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL AFFECT NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
ND THIS MORNING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ003>005-
011>013-021>023-025.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...CJS/NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
643 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
THE CORE OF 5 MB/3 HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE RISES IS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF ND AS OF 12 UTC...AND RAP GUIDANCE /WHICH HAS
BEEN CAPTURING THIS FEATURE WELL/ TAKES IT SOUTHEAST ACROSS WEST
AND CENTRAL ND BY MIDDAY...WHILE WEAKENING ITS MAGNITUDE. WE HAVE
CHOSEN TO CONTINUE MESSAGING THE SURGE OF STRONG WINDS THAT WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT INSTEAD OF
A WIND ADVISORY SINCE THE WINDS ARE DRIVEN BY ISALLOBARIC FORCING
AND THUS SHOULD DECREASE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AFTER ONLY A FEW
HOURS. THAT HAS BEEN THE THEME IN UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS OVERNIGHT.
IF THE WELL-MIXED LAYER DEEPENS SUFFICIENTLY THEN THE WINDS COULD
REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER NORTH CENTRAL ND...BUT WE
STILL ARE NOT CONFIDENT THAT WILL OCCUR.
OTHERWISE...THE BATCH OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WITH THE WARM FRONT
HAS EXITED THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AS OF 1230 UTC...BRINGING AN
END TO THAT THREAT. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS
UPDATE TO CAPTURE THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE A WINDOW OF
LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAIN REGION SOUTH THROUGH THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...THEN A SURGE
OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING.
CURRENTLY...STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
RAPIDLY MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. WAA
AHEAD OF THE WAVE COUPLED WITH AN INCREASING WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES WARMING UP INTO THE 30S WEST WITH
THIS TREND CONTINUING EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
COUPLE OF CONCERNS WITH THE CLIPPER...THE FIRST BEING FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS MY NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
SOUTH THROUGH WELLS AND FOSTER COUNTY. THIS THREAT SHOULD BE OVER
BY 12Z FOR THESE AREAS. DO NOT FEEL THE NEED FOR A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY AS THE PRECIPITATION IS MOVING SO FAST AND ACCUMULATIONS
WILL GENERALLY BE VERY LIGHT.
SECOND CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH.
WIND GUST OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH PEAK AT 40-45KTS...WITH GUSTS THEN TAPERING OFF BACK INTO
THE 25-30KT RANGE. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THE PEAK WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE...WITH THIS INITIAL WIND SURGE ONLY
LASTING FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. WITH SUB-ADVISORY WINDS FORECAST FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...OPTED TO AN ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT VERSUS A WIND ADVISORY. REASONING: THINK AN ADVISORY IS
OVERKILL FOR AN EVENT WHERE WE WILL ONLY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR AN OB OR TWO WITH THE MIXED LAYER SO SHALLOW AND CAA RATHER
WEAK. WE FELT A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS A BETTER PRODUCT FOR
THIS SCENARIO AND STILL CONVEYS THE WIND THREAT.
WINDS REMAIN BREEZY TONIGHT EAST...TAPERING OFF IN THE EVENING
WEST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
MILD WEATHER WILL FINISH OUT THIS WEEK...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY. A COOLING TREND IS STILL EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
ON THE LARGE SCALE...THE 00 UTC MODEL SUITE AGREED THAT SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AHEAD OF A SERIES OF
IMPULSES THAT WILL ESTABLISH A MEAN 500-MB TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES BY THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY WARM AIR WITH
850-MB TEMPERATURES UP TO +11 C WILL ADVECT EASTWARD INTO WESTERN
ND BY LATE THURSDAY...WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE TRANSLATING EAST AND
WEAKENING BY FRIDAY AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER CROSSES THE AREA. THIS
WILL YIELD WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY
ON FRIDAY WHEN BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL BE MORE EFFICIENT. WIND
POTENTIAL IS ALSO ON OUR MINDS HEADING INTO FRIDAY AS WINDS ALOFT
INCREASE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWS THE ALBERTA CLIPPER...BUT
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS AS THE 00
UTC GUIDANCE HAS A FAIR SPREAD IN 850-MB WIND SPEEDS FROM ONLY 40
KT ON THE NAM TO 55 KT ON THE GFS.
LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL EXIST WITH THE FRIDAY SYSTEM...BUT
IF ANYTHING THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUGGESTED LESS MOISTURE POTENTIAL
IN THAT TIME FRAME THAN EARLIER CYCLES. THEREAFTER...BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SUGGESTED ANOTHER IMPULSE COULD YIELD SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING...AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO
SUNDAY. A MUCH STRONGER...GREATER-AMPLITUDE WAVE IS THEN EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY MONDAY...AND THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY ABOUT TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE 00 UTC MODELS CONTINUED TO
KEEP THIS COLORADO LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...LEAVING US
WITH ONLY A COOL-DOWN TOWARD NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
A SURGE OF STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40 KT
WILL AFFECT MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND BEFORE 18 UTC...WITH
WINDS REMAINING GUSTY...BUT SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL AFFECT NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
ND THIS MORNING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...CJS/NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1012 AM MST WED JAN 27 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM MST WED JAN 27 2016
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET TODAY
AND TONIGHT. WILL LOOK AT MOUNTAIN VALLEY TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WE MAY NEED TO LOWER THEM IN NORTH PARK AND CENTRAL PARK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST WED JAN 27 2016
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER NRN CO THRU TONIGHT. THERE IS A
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE THIS
AFTN AND EVENING. HOWEVER MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE IS CONFINED
TO THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS SO OUTSIDE OF SOME CLOUDS NO PCPN IS
EXPECTED.
AS FOR TEMPS SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S OVER
MOST OF NERN CO HOWEVER LINGERING SNOW COVER OVER WELD AND PORTIONS
OF MORGAN COUNTY MAY KEEP HIGHS THEIR IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IF
INVERSIONS HOLD. HOWEVER BOTH THE HRRR AND RAP WANT TO BREAK THESE
INVERSIONS BY AFTN DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS COMING OFF THE CHEYENNE
RIDGE WHICH CAUSES HIGHS TO BE IN THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP HIGHS COOLER BUT DAY SHIFT MAY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THESE TRENDS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST WED JAN 27 2016
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO THE
CWA ON THURSDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND FAIRLY
WEAK. THE RIDGE WILL START TO FLATTEN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH THE FLOW ALOFT INCREASING AND BECOMING MORE ZONAL. A
WEAK SYSTEM WILL BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN ON FRIDAY AS IT PASSES TO
THE NORTH OF COLORADO. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF A MOUNTAIN WAVE THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS WOULD
APPEAR TO BE ABOVE TIMBERLINE AND IN THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS. PACIFIC
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO
LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW REDEVELOPING
IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AT THAT TIME. THE STRONGER ZONAL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER COLORADO OVER THE WEEKEND. THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE DENVER AREA BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SATURDAY EVENING...THEN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE COLDER ON SUNDAY WITH A SLGT
CHC OF PCPN CONTINUING ON SUNDAY AS WELL. THE FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR
THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS LATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ITS
TRACK. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER...THE MDLS MOVE THIS DIGGING TROUGH
INTO SRN UT BY 12Z MONDAY THEN SHIFT IT INTO SERN CO BY 00Z
TUESDAY. IF THIS OCCURS...THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
WITH A DEEP AND EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE. STRONG QG ASCENT WILL DEVELOP AT THE SFC AND ALOFT AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. WL GO WITH 50 PERCENT POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. FAR TOO EARLY FOR HIGHLIGHTS...BUT WE
WILL BE WATCHING THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY. IF THE MDLS
REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING/TRACK THEN A WINTER STORM WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED AT SOME POINT DURING THE WEEKEND. AVG
12-24HR SNOW AMOUNTS BY 12Z TUESDAY RANGE FROM GFS/ECMWF 6-12
INCHES...THE GFS IS THE HIGHER OF THE TWO. THE CANADIAN IS A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LOW...SO LESSER AMOUNTS
GENERATED WITH THIS ONE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST WED JAN 27 2016
WITH A RIDGE OVERHEAD EXPECT DRY VFR CONDTIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE WEAK...BUT A LONGMONT ANTICYCLONE IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
NORTHEAST...THEN BECOMING DRAINAGE WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RTG
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
314 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
20Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
AND INCREASINGLY COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW ARRIVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
OVER-TOP BROAD UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONTINENT. THE FLOW IS THEN TAKEN OVER BY A POTENT SHORTWAVE
RAPIDLY DIGGING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO FORM A SHARP TROUGH
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH CAN
BE ANALYZED EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA TO THE TN VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE IS
CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO/TEXAS AND IS FORECAST BY ALL NWP GUIDANCE TO STEADILY
MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THURSDAY. A POWERFUL 140+ KT UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM
JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND EJECTS ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO...AND WILL HELP TO AID PERIODS OF ENHANCED RISING MOTION
OVER OUR AREA THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EVENTUALLY...PARTIAL PHASING OF
THIS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THE DIGGING TROUGH ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATER THURSDAY WILL HELP TO ACCELERATE THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AXIS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND FLORIDA PENINSULA THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FULL PHASING OCCURS
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FRIDAY. THE ACCELERATION OF THIS ENERGY
THROUGH OUR AREA WILL END THE ONGOING PERIOD OF WET WEATHER WELL
BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY...AND SET UP A FAIR AND DRY PATTERN FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE...AN INVERTED TROUGH/WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS FEATURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ON THURSDAY SHIFTS
THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD/SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...RAIN CHANCES END IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT LATER THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MUCH DRIER...FAIR...AND SOMEWHAT COOLER
WEATHER DESCENDING UPON THE STATE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
MID AFTERNOON RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN STREAMING
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE GULF INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WHOLE MASS...HOWEVER...LIGHTING
ACTIVITY REMAINS VERY LIMITED. SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS
OF RAINFALL THAT FELL ACROSS THE REGION LAST NIGHT AND THIS
MORNING HELPED TO FURTHER WEAKEN LOWER/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
THROUGH THE PROCESS OF LATENT HEAT RELEASE...AND LESSENED THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONGER UPDRAFTS USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. THE NEW LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL IMPACTING THE REGION
IS BEING FORCED WITHING ZONE OF LOWER ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/WAA
REGIME BY A BROAD 925-700MB THETAE RIDGE EMANATING FROM THE FAR
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...UNDERNEATH A STILL DIFFLUENT UPPER
LEVEL WIND FLOW. EARLY AFTERNOON RAP GUIDANCE APPEAR TO BE
HANDLING THIS THETAE RIDGE/WAA REGIME WELL...AND CONTINUE TO SHOW
A FAIRLY ABRUPT NORTHERN BOUNDARY TO THIS LIFT... NEAR OR JUST
NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. RADAR TRENDS SEEM TO BE FOLLOWING SUIT
WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ECHOES SOUTH OF THIS CORRIDOR. CERTAINLY
CAN EXPECT SCT SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH...BUT OVERALL HAVE A DECENT
POP/QPF GRADIENT FOR THE DURATION OF THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS RUNNING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. RAIN CHANCES ARE AT 90-100% SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AND
QUICKLY DROP TO 50-60%...20-40% FOR THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES.
BEEN QUITE A BIT IN THE NEWS EARLIER TODAY CONCERNING THE SEVERE
WEATHER THAT OCCURRED ACROSS FAR SOUTH FLORIDA...INCLUDING A FEW
CONFIRMED TORNADOES. BASED ON THE CURRENT SITUATION...THIS THREAT
APPEARS MORE AND MORE UNLIKELY TO EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO OUR ZONES
THE REST OF THE DAY. ONE CAN NEVER RULE OUT A STRONGER OR
ROTATING STORM...AND RADAR WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY...HOWEVER...THE CONTINUED LARGE MASS OF
RAINFALL...RESULTING CONTINUED RELEASE OF LATENT HEAT INTO THE
LOWER/MID LEVEL COLUMN TO WEAKEN LAPSE RATES...AND AN OVERALL LACK
OF SURFACE/BL CAPE (PER LATEST ANALYSIS AND RAP FORECASTS)
SUGGESTS SEVERE WEATHER WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MATERIALIZING.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING)...
LOOKING AHEAD TO TONIGHT...LATEST RAP SUGGESTS A MODEST THETAE
RIDGE/WAA AND GENERAL UPGLIDE REGIME SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE
BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERALL THE FORCING DOES
NOT LOOK AS FAVORABLE BEYOND THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS...AND
THEREFORE THE EXTENT/DURATION OF EVENING RAINFALL MAY NOT BE AS
GREAT...HOWEVER THE FORECAST STILL WOULD BE CONSIDERED WET FOR
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. SIMILAR TO THE LATE AFTERNOON...MOST
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN ALONG...AND MORE LIKELY
TO THE SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVEL
FORCING CONTINUES TO WEAKEN (ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL ZONES)
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE FIRST BIT OF INFLUENCE
FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE. GFS SUGGESTS SOME
SLIGHT HEIGHT FALLS BEGINNING BEFORE 12Z...AND THEREFORE...BROAD
BUT WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING AND PLENTY OF COLUMN MOISTURE WILL KEEP
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
THURSDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN THE CURRENT WET
PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE STATE...AND THE MUCH DRIER AND PLEASANT
AIRMASS ARRIVING FOR FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WELL-DEFINED
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY. THIS ACTION WILL
SPREAD HEIGHT FALLS AND RESULTING BROAD DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE OVER OUR REGION BY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A
CONTINUATION OF THE STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM JET PASSING OVERHEAD.
THE APPROACH OF THE STRONG TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PUSH THE
SURFACE/LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE AREA TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT. THE BROAD SYNOPTIC FORCING
ALOFT WILL THEN COMBINE WITH MODEST FOCUS ALONG THE ORGANIZING
FGEN BAND TO LIKELY PRODUCE ONE FINAL BAND OF RAIN/SHOWERS WITH
THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS BAND OF RAIN WILL PIVOT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING RAIN CHANCES TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS FROM NORTHWEST/WEST TO SOUTHEAST/EAST. ALL
LINGER POPS ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN/SOUTHERN ZONES HAVE BEEN REMOVED
AFTER 03Z THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE. MUCH
NICER AND DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MORE DETAILS ON THE DRIER AND
MUCH MORE PLEASANT WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK CAN BE FOUND IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
RIDGING OUT WEST AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST. THE TROUGH AXIS
INITIALLY OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL PIVOT EASTWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...TO BE REPLACED BY NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE DAY WITH AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
THE AREA SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL END UP
MOSTLY SUNNY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO PLACE...WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ALOFT WHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY TO OUR WEST
WILL MIGRATE OVER THE STATE FOR SATURDAY AND THEN OUT OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN-FREE AND PLEASANT
WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL RISE BY A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY...STARTING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR SATURDAY AND
INCREASING TO AROUND 70 TO THE MID 70S FOR SUNDAY.
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES RIDGED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH A
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IN PLACE. THIS SET-UP WILL GIVE US A COUPLE OF
EVEN WARMER DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON MONDAY
REACHING THE LOWER 80S IN SOME SPOTS FOR TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN MAINLY FOR
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...INCREASING INTO THE
CHANCE RANGE FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY DEFINITELY EXISTS WITH THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE
PERIOD...BUT AT LEAST FOR NOW...THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IS COVERING
TERMINALS TO THE SOUTH OF I-4 CORRIDOR. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VIS LIKELY FROM KSRQ TO KPGD AND KFMY/KRSW WITH THE RAIN.
LESS RAIN EXPECTED NEXT FEW HOURS FOR TAMPA BAY
TERMINALS...HOWEVER PERIODS OF SEA FOG MAY BRIEFLY LOWER
VISIBILITIES FOR THESE TERMINALS NEAR THE WATER. NMRS SHWRS WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT VCNTY ALL TERMINALS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
LIKELY...AND LOCALLY IFR UNDER PASSING HEAVIER BOUTS OF RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN STRETCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AREAS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED
STORMS WILL MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED.
THURSDAY THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SINK SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT AND
CLEAR THE FORECAST WATERS THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS SHIFT NORTH AND
NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...AND MAY REACH CAUTIONARY LEVELS AT TIMES. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...ALLOWING PERIODS OF
RAINFALL TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND MOST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL ALONG AND TO THE
SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...ALTHOUGH LESSER DURATIONS...BUT STILL
WETTING RAINS SHOULD STILL BE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NATURE COAST
ZONES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH AND EAST
LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT...USHERING IN
A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH 35 PERCENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NATURE
COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DURATION OF
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
FOG POTENTIAL...
NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH AREAS OF SEA FOG NEAR THE COAST OF PINELLAS...
HILLSBOROUGH...AND PASCO COUNTY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATER THURSDAY WILL END THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG REGION-WIDE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 62 67 50 64 / 80 80 20 0
FMY 65 72 55 68 / 90 80 40 0
GIF 61 71 50 67 / 80 80 40 0
SRQ 62 67 52 64 / 90 80 30 0
BKV 60 67 45 65 / 70 70 20 0
SPG 61 68 53 64 / 80 80 20 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-
TAMPA BAY WATERS.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...CARLISLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
123 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING)...
18Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
AND INCREASINGLY COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW ARRIVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
OVER-TOP BROAD UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONTINENT. THE FLOW IS THEN TAKEN OVER BY A POTENT SHORTWAVE
RAPIDLY DIGGING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO FORM A SHARP TROUGH
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH CAN
BE ANALYZED EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA TO THE TN VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE IS
CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO/TEXAS AND IS FORECAST BY ALL NWP GUIDANCE TO STEADILY
MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THURSDAY. A POWERFUL 140+ KT UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM
JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND EJECTS ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO...AND WILL HELP TO AID PERIODS OF ENHANCED RISING MOTION
OVER OUR AREA THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EVENTUALLY...PARTIAL PHASING OF
THIS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THE DIGGING TROUGH ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATER THURSDAY WILL HELP TO ACCELERATE THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AXIS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FULL PHASING
OCCURS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. THE ACCELERATION OF
THIS ENERGY THROUGH OUR AREA WILL END THE ONGOING PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER WELL BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY...AND SET UP A FAIR AND DRY
PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE...AN INVERTED TROUGH/WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS FEATURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ON THURSDAY SHIFTS
THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD/SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...RAIN CHANCES END IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT LATER THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MUCH DRIER...FAIR...AND SOMEWHAT COOLER
WEATHER DESCENDING UPON THE STATE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
EARLY AFTERNOON RADAR PICTURE SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN STREAMING
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE GULF INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WHOLE MASS...HOWEVER...
LIGHTING ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY LIMITED TODAY. SIGNIFICANT
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THAT FELL ACROSS THE REGION LAST
NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING HELPED TO FURTHER WEAKEN LOWER/MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE PROCESS OF LATENT HEAT RELEASE...AND
LESSENED THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONGER UPDRAFTS USUALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. THE NEW LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL
IMPACTING THE REGION IS BEING FORCED WITHING ZONE OF LOWER
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/WAA REGIME BY A BROAD 925-700MB THETAE RIDGE
EMANATING FROM THE FAR SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...UNDERNEATH A
STILL DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. LATE MORNING RAP GUIDANCE
RUNS APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THIS THETAE RIDGE/WAA REGIME WELL...AND
CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY ABRUPT NORTHERN BOUNDARY TO THIS LIFT...
NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. RADAR TRENDS SEEM TO BE
FOLLOWING SUIT WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ECHOES ROUGHLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THIS CORRIDOR. CERTAINLY CAN EXPECT SCT SHOWERS FURTHER
NORTH...BUT OVERALL HAVE A DECENT POP/QPF GRADIENT FOR THE
DURATION OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS RUNNING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN CHANCES ARE AT 100%
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-4...AND QUICKLY DROP TO 60% FURTHER...THEN
50%...AND FINALLY 40% FOR THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES.
BEEN QUITE A BIT IN THE NEWS SO FAR TODAY CONCERNING THE SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS FAR SOUTH FLORIDA...INCLUDING A FEW CONFIRMED
TORNADOES. BASED ON THE CURRENT SITUATION...THIS THREAT APPEARS
UNLIKELY TO EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO OUR ZONES TODAY. ONE CAN NEVER
RULE OUT A STRONGER OR ROTATING STORM...BUT THE CONTINUED LARGE
MASS OF RAINFALL...RESULTING CONTINUED RELEASE OF LATENT HEAT INTO
THE LOWER/MID LEVEL COLUMN TO WEAKEN LAPSE RATES...AND AN OVERALL
LACK OF SURFACE/BL CAPE (PER LATEST ANALYSIS AND RAP FORECASTS)
SUGGESTS SEVERE WEATHER WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MATERIALIZING.
LOOKING AHEAD TO TONIGHT...LATEST RAP SUGGESTS A MODEST THETAE
RIDGE/WAA AND GENERAL UPGLIDE REGIME SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE
BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERALL THE FORCING DOES
NOT LOOK AS FAVORABLE BEYOND THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS...AND
THEREFORE THE EXTENT/DURATION OF EVENING RAINFALL MAY NOT BE AS
GREAT...HOWEVER THE FORECAST STILL WOULD BE CONSIDERED WET FOR
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVEL FORCING CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN (ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL ZONES) AFTER MIDNIGHT...WILL BY
THIS TIME BEGIN TO FEEL THE FIRST BIT OF INFLUENCE FROM THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE. GFS SUGGESTS SOME SLIGHT
HEIGHT FALLS BEGINNING BEFORE 12Z...AND THEREFORE...BROAD BUT WEAK
SYNOPTIC FORCING AND PLENTY OF COLUMN MOISTURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
THURSDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN THE CURRENT WET
PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE STATE...AND THE MUCH DRIER AND PLEASANT
AIRMASS ARRIVING FOR FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WELL-DEFINED
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY. THIS ACTION WILL
SPREAD HEIGHT FALLS AND RESULTING BROAD DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE OVER OUR REGION BY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A
CONTINUATION OF THE STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM JET PASSING OVERHEAD.
THE APPROACH OF THE STRONG TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PUSH THE
SURFACE/LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE AREA TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT. THE BROAD SYNOPTIC FORCING
ALOFT WILL THEN COMBINE WITH MODEST FOCUS ALONG THE ORGANIZING
FGEN BAND TO LIKELY PRODUCE ONE FINAL BAND OF RAIN/SHOWERS WITH
THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS BAND OF RAIN WILL PIVOT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING RAIN CHANCES TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS FROM NORTHWEST/WEST TO SOUTHEAST/EAST. ALL
LINGER POPS ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN/SOUTHERN ZONES SHOULD BE ABLE
TO BE REMOVED THURSDAY EVENING. MUCH NICER AND DRIER WEATHER
FOLLOWS FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IS COVERING
TERMINALS FROM PGD NORTH. AREA OF RAIN WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH ATMOSPHERE GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THE RAIN SHIELD. SCT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH LCL IFR CIGS/VSBYS WHICH
MAY IMPACT PGD/RSW/FMY. INCREASING CHANCE OF TSTMS AT REMAINING
TERMINALS SRQ/PIE/TPA/LAL AROUND SUNSET AS UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
LIFTS NORTH WITH ISOLD/SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING. NMRS SHWRS WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT VCNTY ALL TERMINALS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY
AT ALL TERMINALS WITH LCL IFR CIGS/VSBYS...WITH TSTMS POSSIBLE
VCNTY ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN STRETCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO IN THURSDAY. AREAS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL
MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED. THURSDAY THE
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SINK SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT AND CLEAR THE
FORECAST WATERS THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS SHIFT NORTH AND NORTHWEST
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND MAY
REACH CAUTIONARY LEVELS AT TIMES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN GULF FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW SEAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 73 63 68 50 / 100 70 70 20
FMY 78 66 75 55 / 100 80 80 40
GIF 75 63 72 50 / 100 70 70 40
SRQ 75 63 71 52 / 100 70 70 30
BKV 74 60 70 45 / 70 70 70 20
SPG 73 62 68 53 / 100 70 70 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-
TAMPA BAY WATERS.
&&
$$
UPDATE/MARINE...MROCZKA
OGLESBY...AVIATION
DECISION SUPPORT...CARLISLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
121 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING)...
18Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
AND INCREASINGLY COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW ARRIVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
OVER-TOP BROAD UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONTINENT. THE FLOW IS THEN TAKEN OVER BY A POTENT SHORTWAVE
RAPIDLY DIGGING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO FORM A SHARP TROUGH
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH CAN
BE ANALYZED EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA TO THE TN VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE IS
CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO/TEXAS AND IS FORECAST BY ALL NWP GUIDANCE TO STEADILY
MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THURSDAY. A POWERFUL 140+ KT UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM
JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND EJECTS ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO...AND WILL HELP TO AID PERIODS OF ENHANCED RISING MOTION
OVER OUR AREA THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EVENTUALLY...PARTIAL PHASING OF
THIS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THE DIGGING TROUGH ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATER THURSDAY WILL HELP TO ACCELERATE THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AXIS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FULL PHASING
OCCURS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. THE ACCELERATION OF
THIS ENERGY THROUGH OUR AREA WILL END THE ONGOING PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER WELL BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY...AND SET UP A FAIR AND DRY
PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE...AN INVERTED TROUGH/WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS FEATURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ON THURSDAY SHIFTS
THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD/SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...RAIN CHANCES END IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT LATER THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MUCH DRIER...FAIR...AND SOMEWHAT COOLER
WEATHER DESCENDING UPON THE STATE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
EARLY AFTERNOON RADAR PICTURE SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN STREAMING
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE GULF INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WHOLE MASS...HOWEVER...
LIGHTING ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY LIMITED TODAY. SIGNIFICANT
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THAT FELL ACROSS THE REGION LAST
NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING HELPED TO FURTHER WEAKEN LOWER/MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE PROCESS OF LATENT HEAT RELEASE...AND
LESSENED THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONGER UPDRAFTS USUALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. THE NEW LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL
IMPACTING THE REGION IS BEING FORCED WITHING ZONE OF LOWER
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/WAA REGIME BY A BROAD 925-700MB THETAE RIDGE
EMANATING FROM THE FAR SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...UNDERNEATH A
STILL DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. LATE MORNING RAP GUIDANCE
RUNS APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THIS THETAE RIDGE/WAA REGIME WELL...AND
CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY ABRUPT NORTHERN BOUNDARY TO THIS LIFT...
NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. RADAR TRENDS SEEM TO BE
FOLLOWING SUIT WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ECHOES ROUGHLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THIS CORRIDOR. CERTAINLY CAN EXPECT SCT SHOWERS FURTHER
NORTH...BUT OVERALL HAVE A DECENT POP/QPF GRADIENT FOR THE
DURATION OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS RUNNING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN CHANCES ARE AT 100%
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-4...AND QUICKLY DROP TO 60% FURTHER...THEN
50%...AND FINALLY 40% FOR THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES.
BEEN QUITE A BIT IN THE NEWS SO FAR TODAY CONCERNING THE SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS FAR SOUTH FLORIDA...INCLUDING A FEW CONFIRMED
TORNADOES. BASED ON THE CURRENT SITUATION...THIS THREAT APPEARS
UNLIKELY TO EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO OUR ZONES TODAY. ONE CAN NEVER
RULE OUT A STRONGER OR ROTATING STORM...BUT THE CONTINUED LARGE
MASS OF RAINFALL...RESULTING CONTINUED RELEASE OF LATENT HEAT INTO
THE LOWER/MID LEVEL COLUMN TO WEAKEN LAPSE RATES...AND AN OVERALL
LACK OF SURFACE/BL CAPE (PER LATEST ANALYSIS AND RAP FORECASTS)
SUGGESTS SEVERE WEATHER WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MATERIALIZING.
LOOKING AHEAD TO TONIGHT...LATEST RAP SUGGESTS A MODEST THETAE
RIDGE/WAA AND GENERAL UPGLIDE REGIME SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE
BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERALL THE FORCING DOES
NOT LOOK AS FAVORABLE BEYOND THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS...AND
THEREFORE THE EXTENT/DURATION OF EVENING RAINFALL MAY NOT BE AS
GREAT...HOWEVER THE FORECAST STILL WOULD BE CONSIDERED WET FOR
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVEL FORCING CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN (ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL ZONES) AFTER MIDNIGHT...WILL BY
THIS TIME BEGIN TO FEEL THE FIRST BIT OF INFLUENCE FROM THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE. GFS SUGGESTS SOME SLIGHT
HEIGHT FALLS BEGINNING BEFORE 12Z...AND THEREFORE...BROAD BUT WEAK
SYNOPTIC FORCING AND PLENTY OF COLUMN MOISTURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
THURSDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN THE CURRENT WET
PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE STATE...AND THE MUCH DRIER AND PLEASANT
AIRMASS ARRIVING FOR FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WELL-DEFINED
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY. THIS ACTION WILL
SPREAD HEIGHT FALLS AND RESULTING BROAD DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE OVER OUR REGION BY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A
CONTINUATION OF THE STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM JET PASSING OVERHEAD.
THE APPROACH OF THE STRONG TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PUSH THE
SURFACE/LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE AREA TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT. THE BROAD SYNOPTIC FORCING
ALOFT WILL THEN COMBINE WITH MODEST FOCUS ALONG THE ORGANIZING
FGEN BAND TO LIKELY PRODUCE ONE FINAL BAND OF RAIN/SHOWERS WITH
THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS BAND OF RAIN WILL PIVOT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING RAIN CHANCES TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS FROM NORTHWEST/WEST TO SOUTHEAST/EAST. ALL
LINGER POPS ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN/SOUTHERN ZONES SHOULD BE ABLE
TO BE REMOVED THURSDAY EVENING. MUCH NICER AND DRIER WEATHER
FOLLOWS FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
COMING SOON.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN STRETCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO IN THURSDAY. AREAS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL
MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED. THURSDAY THE
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SINK SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT AND CLEAR THE
FORECAST WATERS THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS SHIFT NORTH AND NORTHWEST
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND MAY
REACH CAUTIONARY LEVELS AT TIMES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN GULF FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW SEAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 73 63 68 52 / 100 70 70 20
FMY 78 66 75 57 / 100 80 80 40
GIF 75 63 72 52 / 100 70 70 40
SRQ 75 63 71 54 / 100 70 70 20
BKV 74 60 70 46 / 70 70 70 20
SPG 73 62 68 54 / 100 70 70 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-
TAMPA BAY WATERS.
&&
$$
UPDATE/MARINE...MROCZKA
OGLESBY...AVIATION
DECISION SUPPORT...CARLISLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
243 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A
FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LAST AND MOST DOMINATE
IN THE SERIES WILL BEGIN LIFTING FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR INDICATED CONSIDERABLE RAIN COVERAGE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAYED SCATTERED
COVERAGE DURING MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT AN INCREASE TOWARD SUNRISE
AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE NAM AND ECMWF
PLUS MOST SREF MEMBERS INDICATED LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN
0.25 OF AN INCH. THE GFS HAD AMOUNTS NEAR 0.25 OF AN INCH IN THE
SOUTH PART. WE LEANED TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT LIGHTER AMOUNTS
BECAUSE OF WEAK LIFT AND THE INITIAL LOW-LEVEL DRYNESS. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS INDICATE THE GREATEST SUPPORT FOR RAIN DURING THE 12Z
TO 18Z TIME FRAME ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE H25 JET. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED HIGHER
WITH QPF. THE GFS HAD NEAR 0.75 OF AN INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST
SECTION. WE LEANED TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT NAM AND ECMWF AND
FORECASTED LIGHTER AMOUNTS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
LOWER FOR THURSDAY AND THIS APPEARS ON TRACK BECAUSE OF RAIN AND
WEDGE-LIKE CONDITIONS.
THE MODELS DISPLAY THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT CLEARING. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
IT SHOULD BE SUNNY FRIDAY WITH THE PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A DRY PATTERN WITH A PRESSURE RIDGE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST DOMINATING THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS KEEP
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
MODELS SHOW A MOISTURE INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT POPS NEAR 20 PERCENT TUESDAY AND 30 PERCENT
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS 20 TO 30
PERCENT TUESDAY...AND 40 TO 60 PERCENT WEDNESDAY.
IT WILL BE COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE LOWS NEAR FREEZING. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA DURING
THE REST OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE GFS AND ECMWF
MOS HAVE TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR.
COLD FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CSRA
AND MIDLANDS. THE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY
MORNING WHEN MOISTURE IS DEEPEST AND LIFT IS STRONGEST. MODELS
HAVE OVERDONE THE RESTRICTIONS TODAY AND SHOW RESTRICTIONS FOR
REST OF THE PERIOD SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. BELIEVE CEILINGS
WILL LOWER TO MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND POSSIBLY TO IFR
OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE LIGHT BUT VISIBILITIES
MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES ESPECIALLY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
SPEED BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFFSHORE FROM FLORIDA TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
215 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A
FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LAST AND MOST DOMINATE
IN THE SERIES WILL BEGIN LIFTING FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR INDICATED CONSIDERABLE RAIN COVERAGE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAYED SCATTERED
COVERAGE DURING MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT AN INCREASE TOWARD SUNRISE
AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE NAM AND ECMWF
PLUS MOST SREF MEMBERS INDICATED LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN
0.25 OF AN INCH. THE GFS HAD AMOUNTS NEAR 0.25 OF AN INCH IN THE
SOUTH PART. WE LEANED TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT LIGHTER AMOUNTS
BECAUSE OF WEAK LIFT AND THE INITIAL LOW-LEVEL DRYNESS. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS INDICATE THE GREATEST SUPPORT FOR RAIN DURING THE 12Z
TO 18Z TIME FRAME ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE H25 JET. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED HIGHER
WITH QPF. THE GFS HAD NEAR 0.75 OF AN INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST
SECTION. WE LEANED TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT NAM AND ECMWF AND
FORECASTED LIGHTER AMOUNTS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
LOWER FOR THURSDAY AND THIS APPEARS ON TRACK BECAUSE OF RAIN AND
WEDGE-LIKE CONDITIONS.
THE MODELS DISPLAY THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT CLEARING. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
IT SHOULD BE SUNNY FRIDAY WITH THE PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A DRY PATTERN WITH A PRESSURE RIDGE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST DOMINATING THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS KEEP
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
MODELS SHOW A MOISTURE INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT POPS NEAR 20 PERCENT TUESDAY AND 30 PERCENT
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS 20 TO 30
PERCENT TUESDAY...AND 40 TO 60 PERCENT WEDNESDAY.
IT WILL BE COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE LOWS NEAR FREEZING. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA DURING
THE REST OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE GFS AND ECMWF
MOS HAVE TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR.
COLD FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW
LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE CSRA CURRENTLY. REGIONAL RADAR
SHOWS AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA MOVING
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA. MODELS SHOW THESE SHOWERS MOVING INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHEN
MOISTURE IS DEEPEST AND LIFT IS STRONGEST. MODELS SHOW RESTRICTIONS
FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE MORE OPTIMISTIC
GFS LAMP WHICH GENERALLY KEEPS CONDITIONS VFR UNTIL 21Z AT AGS/DNL
AND 03/05Z AT CAE/CUB/OGB. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERDOING THE
RESTRICTIONS TODAY SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH SPEED BETWEEN
5 AND 10 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFFSHORE FROM FLORIDA TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
120 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A
FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LAST AND MOST DOMINATE
IN THE SERIES WILL BEGIN LIFTING FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR INDICATE CONSIDERABLE RAIN COVERAGE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THE HRRR INDICATED SCATTERED COVERAGE LATER...BUT AN INCREASE
TOWARD SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS.
THE NAM AND ECMWF PLUS MOST SREF MEMBERS INDICATED LIGHT RAIN
AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN 0.25 OF AN INCH. THE GFS HAD AMOUNTS NEAR
0.25 OF AN INCH IN THE SOUTH PART. WE LEANED TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT GUIDANCE. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS INDICATE THE GREATEST SUPPORT FOR RAIN DURING THE 12Z
TO 18Z TIME FRAME ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE H25 JET. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED HIGHER
WITH QPF. THE GFS HAD NEAR 0.75 OF AN INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST
SECTION. WE LEANED TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT NAM AND ECMWF AND
FORECASTED LIGHTER AMOUNTS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
LOWER FOR THURSDAY AND THIS APPEARS ON TRACK BECAUSE OF RAIN AND
WEDGE-LIKE CONDITIONS.
THE MODELS DISPLAY THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT CLEARING. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
IT SHOULD BE SUNNY FRIDAY WITH THE PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A DRY PATTERN WITH A PRESSURE RIDGE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST DOMINATING THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS KEEP
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
MODELS SHOW A MOISTURE INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT POPS NEAR 20 PERCENT TUESDAY AND 30 PERCENT
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS 20 TO 30
PERCENT TUESDAY...AND 40 TO 60 PERCENT WEDNESDAY.
IT WILL BE COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE LOWS NEAR FREEZING. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA DURING
THE REST OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE GFS AND ECMWF
MOS HAVE TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR.
COLD FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW
LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE CSRA CURRENTLY. REGIONAL RADAR
SHOWS AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA MOVING
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA. MODELS SHOW THESE SHOWERS MOVING INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHEN
MOISTURE IS DEEPEST AND LIFT IS STRONGEST. MODELS SHOW RESTRICTIONS
FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE MORE OPTIMISTIC
GFS LAMP WHICH GENERALLY KEEPS CONDITIONS VFR UNTIL 21Z AT AGS/DNL
AND 03/05Z AT CAE/CUB/OGB. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERDOING THE
RESTRICTIONS TODAY SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH SPEED BETWEEN
5 AND 10 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFFSHORE FROM FLORIDA TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1255 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A
FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LAST AND MOST DOMINATE
IN THE SERIES WILL BEGIN LIFTING FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST
LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATED RELATIVELY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR WITH A
WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT. THIS HAS HELPED LIMIT RAIN ASSOCIATED
MAINLY WITH DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE HRRR HAS
INDICATED SOME INCREASE IN RAIN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
POSSIBLY AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED BY
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LAST
IN THE SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ALONG THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE MODELS DEPICT THIS TROUGH SHIFTING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY EVENING. THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO
DISPLAY A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT IN THE FORECAST AREA DIMINISHING
FORECAST CONFIDENCE. THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCE SHOULD BE IN THE
EAST PART CLOSER TO DEEPER MOISTURE. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
INDICATES THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND MOST SIGNIFICANT ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND UPPER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIFT EXIT REGION OF THE
H25 JET LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLD ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW. EXPECT
SUNNY SKIES FRIDAY WITH A DRY PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED LOWER THURSDAY
AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. FOLLOWED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A DRY PATTERN WITH A PRESSURE RIDGE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST DOMINATING THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS KEEP
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
MODELS SHOW A MOISTURE INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN FASTER WITH THE TIMING. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS
SUPPORT POPS NEAR 20 PERCENT TUESDAY AND AROUND 30 PERCENT
WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG NET
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE LOWS NEAR
FREEZING. AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO
THE AREA DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR.
COLD FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW
LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE CSRA CURRENTLY. REGIONAL RADAR
SHOWS AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA MOVING
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA. MODELS SHOW THESE SHOWERS MOVING INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHEN
MOISTURE IS DEEPEST AND LIFT IS STRONGEST. MODELS SHOW RESTRICTIONS
FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE MORE OPTIMISTIC
GFS LAMP WHICH GENERALLY KEEPS CONDITIONS VFR UNTIL 21Z AT AGS/DNL
AND 03/05Z AT CAE/CUB/OGB. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERDOING THE
RESTRICTIONS TODAY SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH SPEED BETWEEN
5 AND 10 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFFSHORE FROM FLORIDA TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1218 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A
FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LAST AND MOST DOMINATE
IN THE SERIES WILL BEGIN LIFTING FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST
LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATED RELATIVELY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR WITH A
WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT. THIS HAS HELPED LIMIT RAIN ASSOCIATED
MAINLY WITH DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE HRRR HAS
INDICATED SOME INCREASE IN RAIN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
POSSIBLY AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED BY
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LAST
IN THE SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ALONG THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE MODELS DEPICT THIS TROUGH SHIFTING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY EVENING. THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO
DISPLAY A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT IN THE FORECAST AREA DIMINISHING
FORECAST CONFIDENCE. THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCE SHOULD BE IN THE
EAST PART CLOSER TO DEEPER MOISTURE. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
INDICATES THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND MOST SIGNIFICANT ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND UPPER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIFT EXIT REGION OF THE
H25 JET LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLD ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW. EXPECT
SUNNY SKIES FRIDAY WITH A DRY PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED LOWER THURSDAY
AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. FOLLOWED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A DRY PATTERN WITH A PRESSURE RIDGE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST DOMINATING THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS KEEP
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
MODELS SHOW A MOISTURE INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN FASTER WITH THE TIMING. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS
SUPPORT POPS NEAR 20 PERCENT TUESDAY AND AROUND 30 PERCENT
WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG NET
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE LOWS NEAR
FREEZING. AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO
THE AREA DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING EAST AND OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED AND ALL TAF SITES ARE CURRENTLY
VFR. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES. CEILINGS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY RETURNS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH SPEED BETWEEN 5 AND
10 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFFSHORE FROM FLORIDA TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1133 AM EST WED JAN 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A
FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LAST AND MOST DOMINATE
IN THE SERIES WILL BEGIN LIFTING FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST
LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATED RELATIVELY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR WITH A
WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT. THIS HAS HELPED LIMIT RAIN ASSOCIATED
MAINLY WITH DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE HRRR HAS
INDICATED SOME INCREASE IN RAIN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
POSSIBLY AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED BY
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LAST
IN THE SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ALONG THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE MODELS DEPICT THIS TROUGH SHIFTING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY EVENING. THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO
DISPLAY A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT IN THE FORECAST AREA DIMINISHING
FORECAST CONFIDENCE. THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCE SHOULD BE IN THE
EAST PART CLOSER TO DEEPER MOISTURE. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
INDICATES THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND MOST SIGNIFICANT ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND UPPER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIFT EXIT REGION OF THE
H25 JET LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE MODELS DEPICT WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA. THE
NAM...GFS..AND ECMWF AND MOST SREF MEMBERS INDICATES RAINFALL
AROUND 0.25 OF AN INCH OR LESS. CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH COLD ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES
FRIDAY WITH A DRY PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED LOWER THURSDAY AND THIS
APPEARS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A DRY PATTERN WITH A PRESSURE RIDGE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST DOMINATING THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS KEEP
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
MODELS SHOW A MOISTURE INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN FASTER WITH THE TIMING. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS
SUPPORT POPS NEAR 20 PERCENT TUESDAY AND AROUND 30 PERCENT
WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG NET
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE LOWS NEAR
FREEZING. AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO
THE AREA DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING EAST AND OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED AND ALL TAF SITES ARE CURRENTLY
VFR. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES. CEILINGS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY RETURNS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH SPEED BETWEEN 5 AND
10 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFFSHORE FROM FLORIDA TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
301 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
Most of the earlier stratocumulus has faded early this afternoon,
with the lingering clouds over east central Illinois showing more of
a diurnal appearance. Mid level clouds quickly streaming toward us
from the northwest, ahead of a trough/warm front the clipper that
will track across the Great Lakes tonight. Temperatures are well
into the 30s this afternoon and were close to 40 in areas west of
Springfield.
Main impact from the trough/front will be with the winds, as its
passage will otherwise only bring clouds with it. Tightening
pressure gradient will cause a period of gusty southwest winds
beginning late afternoon northwest of the Illinois River, and
spreading south of I-70 by early evening. HRRR guidance seems too
high with a period of 40-45 mph gusts this evening, but the LAMP
guidance closer to 25 mph seems more reasonable. Winds will lighten
up a bit overnight as the main trough axis crosses the area.
Temperatures should remain fairly steady in the evening, before
falling off to around 30 degrees in most areas late night.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
Another clipper system near the northern MN and sw Ontario border
will track across the Great Lakes region Thu and drive a frontal
boundary/trof east across IL by Thu afternoon. Added small chances
of light snow or flurries to ne CWA Thu afternoon and also increased
the cloud cover during Thu especially by late morning and afternoon.
Highs Thu in upper 30s to near 40F from I-74 north and lower 40s
south with Lawrenceville near 45F. WSW winds at dawn Thu to veer WNW
Thu afternoon at 10-15 mph and gusts 17-24 mph so a bit breezy Thu.
Weak surface high pressure ridge of 1017 mb moves east from the
Great Plains into IL by dawn Friday and decrease the winds Thu night.
Lows mostly in the mid 20s Thu night, with some upper 20s se of I-
70. High pressure shifts east of IL during Friday with increasing
southerly flow and its back side and a bit milder highs in the low
to mid 40s, mildest from Springfield sw. Partly to mostly sunny
skies Friday with weak upper level ridging into IL by Fri afternoon.
Upper level flow becomes more zonal late this week with milder
Pacific air moving into IL this weekend. SW winds Sat brings highs
to near 50F from I-74 north and mid 50s south of I-70 and sw of
Springfield. Highs mostly in the 50s on Sunday ranging from around
50F nw of IL river to upper 50s in southeast IL. Low pressure
passing north of Lake Superior Saturday to increase clouds northern
CWA while southeast IL enjoys more sunshine through the day Saturday.
More active weather pattern takes shape Sunday-Wednesday as IL gets
established in a sw upper level flow with upper level trof digging
over the Rockies and upper level ridging building near the Atlantic
coast. Above normal temps through Tue then cooling closer to normal
next Wed. Low pressure near the western KS/OK border by sunset Sat
to eject ne into the western Great Lakes by sunset Sunday and pull a
frontal boundary se into central IL Sunday afternoon. This to bring
1st chance of light rain showers and lingering Sunday night
especially over ne and eastern IL Sunday evening. Could see a mix of
precipitation along and north of a Rushville to Bloomington line
after midnight Sunday night but little or no snow accumuation. Still
looks like a lull in rain chances Monday with mainly slight chances
as stronger surface low pressure gets organized over north Texas.
Models bring strong low pressure ne into west central or nw IL Tue
evening and into the western Great Lakes Wed. Central and southeast
IL appear to be mostly in the warm sector with mostly rain chances,
starting to increase from sw to ne during Monday night, with likely
chances Tue and Tue night. A few thunderstorms possible Tue south of
highway 50 in southern IL. Colder air beginning to move in during
Tue night especially after midnight Tue night and Wed to change rain
to snow nw CWA with some accumulations possible mainly nw of the IL
river. Most of area will see a good chance of light snow on Wed as
colder air continues to usher into the area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
VFR conditions expected to prevail through the period, although
some brief MVFR conditions will occur near KPIA through the midday
hour. Most of the stratocumulus will be out of the TAF sites by
mid afternoon, however some mid and high clouds will stream
southeast across the area late afternoon into tonight. Winds
expected to become gusty for awhile as the pressure gradient
tightens ahead of a boundary, which will pass through central
Illinois between 07-11Z. South-southwest winds will turn more
westerly behind this boundary. Late in the period, an area of MVFR
ceilings will drop southward due to disturbances rotating through
the Great Lakes. This is likely to reach areas from KPIA-KCMI by
late Thursday morning.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1030 AM MST WED JAN 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 AM MST WED JAN 27 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A LARGE
SCALE RIDGE WITH 582 DM CENTER EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN US
WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS OUR CWA. AT THE THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FROM EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
RIDGE WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY. A DEEP DRY AIR MASS WILL
PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CHANCES DESPITE A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSAGES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MAIN IMPACT ON THESE
FEATURES WILL BE PASSING MID-HIGH CLOUDS WHICH COULD COMPLICATE
DIURNAL TRENDS AND DAYTIME MIXING. OVERALL EXPECT THE SHORT RANGE
PERIOD TO BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL AND DRY. OVERALL TREND IN GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING BETTER DOWNSLOPE AND WAA PARTICULARLY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND I TRENDED TEMPS UP OVER PARTS OF OUR CWA. FRIDAY IS A
LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED REGARDING HIGHS AS MODELS ARE SHOWING PRE
FRONTAL TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTH AND FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF OUR CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. RESULT COULD BE HIGHS IN THE
SOUTH APPROACHING 70 IN OUR SOUTH AND HIGHS IN THE NORTH COOLER
THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED.
REGARDING FIRE WEATHER TODAY...IF MIXING IS NOT HAMPERED BY
INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE GUSTS
20-25 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. BEST CHANCE FOR RH TO APPROACH
15 PERCENT IS STILL IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA...AND AS
OF CURRENT SOUNDINGS IT STILL LOOKS LIKE RH SHOULD REMAIN JUST
ABOVE THIS. EVEN IF THERE IS A BRIEF/LOCALIZED CROSSOVER OF 15% RH
AND 25 MPH WIND GUSTS THIS WILL LIKELY NOT REACH OUR 3HR
REQUIREMENT FOR RFW. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TODAY...AND KEEP
MENTION IN HWO FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM MST WED JAN 27 2016
UPPER FLOW SHOULD BE ZONAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES
SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY. THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH
SHOULD BE OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE
MISSOURI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN
BEHIND THE EXITING STORM TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN FEATURES
OF THE TROUGH. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT IN EARLIER WHILE THE GFS HOLDS
IT OVER THE AREA LONGER. BOTH MODELS BRING THE STORM ACROSS THE
FAVORED PANHANDLE REGION WHICH WOULD PRODUCE A GOOD SNOWFALL EVENT
FOR THE FA. IF SIGNIFICANT SNOW FALLS...WINDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY COULD CREATE ISSUES WITH TRAVEL. DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING... THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A
COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH READINGS FROM 40 TO 45. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL GET PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WITH READINGS FROM 35 TO 40
MONDAY AND 25 TO 30 TUESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY COOL
INTO THE 20S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. COLDER MIN TEMPERATURES
IN THE TEENS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MST WED JAN 27 2016
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGH CIRRUS SPREADS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT CLEAR SKIES
SHOULD BE OTHERWISE EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH SLIDES IN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET...BACKING ONCE AGAIN TO THE WEST.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1127 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 218 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
Longwave trough continues to push southeast out the area, clearing
Kansas in the overnight hours. Attention on latest water vapor
imagery is brought to the Saskatchewan/Montana area as a shortwave
was moving southeast across this area. Weak surface pressure falls
behind the departing weak surface anticyclone bringing light south
to southwest winds to many local sites overnight. RAP data
indicating 10-15kt southwest winds around 800ft AGL and seems to be
enough to keep any fog formation in check.
The northern upper wave continues southeast into the Great Lakes
area today and tonight. A weak surface trough passes late tonight,
with southwest winds increasing a bit today and providing enough
mixing into a warming 850-925mb airmass for a noticeably warmer day
today despite increasing mid and high cloud. The remaining snowpack
over northern and western areas may hold temps back a bit, but
should still be able to reach into the 40s here. The warmer airmass
and more mixing tonight should keep lows in the mid to upper 20s as
the clouds thin.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 218 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
Temperatures aloft continue to rise through the mid and late week,
bringing highs in the 50s Thursday with upper 50s to lower 60s by
Friday. Weak shortwave trof skims the area Friday into Friday
night, but temperatures recover quickly behind the system to
still bring highs in the 50s on Saturday. This may be underdone if
pool of warmer mid level temps ahead of the next front can park
overhead and mix into this layer with southerly winds that day.
Sunday may start out warm, but with front passing through the day
temperatures start to fall in the afternoon. There are model
differences in how fast the next northern clipper moves to the
east, and how much cold air it moves southeast in the process,
with EC colder than the GFS for Sunday. Both have our area north
of the front on Monday with overrunning precipitation intensifying
as the next upper trof approaches.
Latest EC by sunrise Tuesday is wound up over SC Kansas with
strong winds and snow driving southward across western Kansas. GFS
is slower and farther south, with an elongated surface low
stretching SW to NE across Missouri, while the EC already has the
low into Illinois. Several of the GFS ensemble 500mb height
comparisons are quite different in how they handle the system as
it moves out of the west, and is still quite early to jump on any
one solution given the system is somewhere out over the Bering
Sea. Current runs of operational GFS and EC bring accumulating
snow and strong winds to our western counties. Still considerable
uncertainty, with this possible stronger solution noteworthy.
Lots of time for forecast track and strength to shift around.
Worth keeping an eye on, while still noting the system is at least
6 days out.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period at all
terminals.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Baerg
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1110 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1110 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
Aviation update.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 229 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
Those stubborn low clouds are still hanging around...and the RAP
modeling of 925 mb moisture suggests this may continue...at least
thru the first half of today. It will probably take until the H5
trof passes this pm...to really allow the low level moisture to
depart. And the RAP confirms, showing it exiting our northeastern
counties around 00Z Thursday.
This will impact temps, with mostly 30s forecast except perhaps
for western counties (SEMO Ozarks)...where more sunshine and lower
40s is possible.
A surface high pressure ridge strengthens overhead by Friday. This
will commence a moderating trend...with temperatures working back
through the 40s and maybe even getting into some lower 50s in
SEMO. Nightly lows in the 20s are anticipated until Friday...when
the moderating trends toward lows in the 30s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 229 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
At 00z Saturday, models show surface high pressure off the southeast
coast and surface low pressure over the Central Plains. This will
keep our area in strong south to southwest flow through the weekend
into early next week which will keep our temperatures well above
seasonal normals. This will also bring more moisture into the area.
The surface low will move east and northeast into the Great Lakes
region. Models are all over the place with the track and timing of
the low, with GFS now much faster moving the associated cold front
across our region. ECMWF and the Canadian are more consistent with
their previous solutions, lingering the front across our region for
the early part of the work week, and prefer these solutions. Went
with slight and chance pops for the PAH forecast area for showers
Sunday into Monday night, then another area of low pressure will
move along the front on Tuesday. This will increase our chances for
showers, and with some instability moving into the area, included
slight chances for thunderstorms on Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1110 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
Clouds 2.5-3k/ft decreasing in coverage with mixing and eventually
a developing SW flow at 925mb aiding the process. Should
transition to clear through the evening. Overnight some mid level
energy will move NW-SE across the area accompanied by some
mid/high clouds. Winds will gradually become SSW 3-7 kts or so
this evening on through Thursday morning. No visibility
restrictions.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
246 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE BRINGS SNOW SHOWER CHANCES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ROLL IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO APPROACH BY MORNING.
A FEW FLURRIES MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT A SOUTHWEST WIND SHIFT
WILL PUSH ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UNSURE AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT...AS
DIURNAL STRATOCU THAT HAS DEVELOPED TODAY SHOULD DIMINISH BUT
STRATUS FURTHER EAST OVER OHIO MAY PIVOT TOWARD THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...OPTED TO HOLD SOME CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTH
AND WEST PER THE LATEST HRRR MODEL DATA AND PROJECTS BASED ON THE
LATEST SATELLITE. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WE WILL DECOUPLE...SO
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT
DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING. THUS...LOWS WERE FORECAST
NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK ASCENT IN THE 285-295K LAYER QUICKLY LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WARM FRONT.
HOWEVER...VERY POOR SATURATION IS NOTED IN THE LAYER AS EVIDENCED
BY CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ON THE GFS AND NAM FAILING TO
FALL MUCH BELOW 30-50 HPA. ADDITIONALLY...MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LIFT AND DEPTH OF
MOISTURE BELOW THE LAYER...CHANCE TO LOW-END LIKELY POPS WERE
MAINTAINED AS THE LEADING WAVE WITH WARM ADVECTION AND SECONDARY
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT TRUCK THROUGH ON THURSDAY
MORNING AND EVENING RESPECTIVELY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LAYER LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...A WARMING SURFACE LAYER DURING
THE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS FOR MOST PLACES UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
COLDER AIR AND RISING INVERSION HEIGHTS WITH MORE UNIFORM UNI-
DIRECTIONAL UNSTABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LAYER BELOW
THE INVERSION CHARACTERIZE THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AMPLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP...WHICH WILL BECOME ENHANCED AS THEY REACH THE RIDGES. IT
TAKES MOST OF THE NIGHT FOR THE INVERSION HEIGHT TO RISE INTO THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER...HOWEVER...SO SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH DOES NOT
LOOK OPTIMAL AT THE ONSET. AS A RESULT...SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE. THIS WILL KEEP UPSLOPE SNOWS FROM
BECOMING TOO EFFICIENT AS THE NIGHT ENSUES.
DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
THIS WILL START TO WIND DOWN SNOW SHOWER CHANCES.
ADDITIONALLY...AND INCOMING SURFACE RIDGE WILL TURN THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURE MODERATION GOING INTO SATURDAY AS A WAVE TRANSITS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...LEAVING OUR AREA UNDER GENERAL WARM
ADVECTION. FRIES
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS SET TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
HEIGHTS TO INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. AS THIS
OCCURS...THE JET IS SET TO MOVE NORTH OF OUR AREA BY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TO
START TO OCCUR.
ONE LAST NORTHERN STREAM STORM IS FAVORED TO TRANSIT THE AREA WITH
RAIN ON MONDAY PER THE MODEL CONSENSUS BEFORE THE DEEP WESTERN
TROUGH SLOWLY DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. AS IT DOES SO...WARM
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO MID-WEEK AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
RAIN CHANCES PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING. FRIES
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU WILL PREVAIL AT MOST SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE COVERAGE DIMINISHES. MODEL OUTPUT FOR CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT HAS VARIED BUT IT NOW APPEARS THAT SOME STRATUS WILL
STAY ENTRENCHED ACROSS A PORTION OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
THUS...MVFR OR MVFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY.
.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OCNL RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WL RETURN WITH A SERIES OF LATE WEEK
AND WEEKEND DISTURBANCES.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
145 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE BRINGS SNOW SHOWER CHANCES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO APPROACH BY MORNING.
A FEW FLURRIES MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT A SOUTHWEST WIND SHIFT
WILL PUSH ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UNSURE AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT...AS
DIURNAL STRATOCU THAT HAS DEVELOPED TODAY SHOULD DIMINISH BUT
STRATUS FURTHER EAST OVER OHIO MAY PIVOT TOWARD THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...OPTED TO HOLD SOME CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTH
AND WEST PER THE LATEST HRRR MODEL DATA AND PROJECTS BASED ON THE
LATEST SATELLITE. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WE WILL DECOUPLE...SO
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT
DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING. THUS...LOWS WERE FORECAST
NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED FOR THURSDAY PASSAGE OVR THE UPR OHIO REGION. CURRENT
OMEGA/ASCENT FIELDS SUGGEST GENL WEAKNESS IN THE SYSTEM...BUT WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE DEPTH TO SPPRT PRECIP. HAVE THUS FORECAST CHC
TO LIKELY SNOW SHWRS...WITH BTR NUMBERS NORTH...FOR A LGT PCPN
EVENT WITH ACCUMULATION FURTHER TEMPERED BY AN INITIALLY WARM
BOUNDARY LYR.
COLD ADVCTN AND A LINEAR MIXING LYR WIND PROFILE IN THE WAKE OF
THE SFC REFLECTION SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL...AND BTR ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN LEE OF
THE LAKES AND FOR THE RIDGES. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR THAT EVENTUALITY
IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY MID LVL TROF PROGRESSION. NO REAL
ALTERATIONS WERE COMPLETED FOR THE PRECIP PROB FORECAST OF THAT
TIME FRAME.
TEMP FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE USING SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FLOW PTN IS FORECAST TO BE DOMINATED BY LOW PRES
EMERGING OUT OF THE SWRN CONUS...WITH WARM ADVCTN FOR POINTS EAST
TEMPERED BY NRN STREAM SHRTWV ENERGY CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES.
MORE MODERATE TEMPS APPROX 10 DEGS ABOVE THE AVGS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE OFFSET BY CHC...NR CLIMO POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PD.
TWEAKED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST
CONSTRUCTION.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU WILL PREVAIL AT MOST SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE COVERAGE DIMINISHES. MODEL OUTPUT FOR CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT HAS VARIED BUT IT NOW APPEARS THAT SOME STRATUS WILL
STAY ENTRENCHED ACROSS A PORTION OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
THUS...MVFR OR MVFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY.
.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OCNL RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WL RETURN WITH A SERIES OF LATE WEEK
AND WEEKEND DISTURBANCES.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
337 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO EXIT EAST AWAY FROM MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE IS NEARING THE ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THRU
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL
SW FLOW/WAA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...LIMITING ANY RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT
PRECIP TO MAINLY FLURRIES ACROSS OUR CWA ATTM.
LATEST BASE REF IMAGES FROM UPSTREAM RADARS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF
WIDESPREAD SNOW TAKING SHAPE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN IN
ADVANCE OF THE LOW CENTER AND COLD FRONT. BOTH THE RAP AND THE NAM
SHOW THIS LEADING EDGE REACHING OUR WRN CWA JUST BEFORE 00Z...
QUICKLY SPREADING EASTWARD THRU THE REST OF OUR CWA THEREAFTER. WITH
DELTA T`S OF AROUND 10 DEGREES...SUSPECT LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF SW
FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN (I.E. OUR FAR WRN CWA) MAY VERY WELL SEE
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ONCE INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
ACTIVATE SEEDER/FEEDER PROCESSES ALOFT PER LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND CROSS SECTIONS. WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THIS TAKING SHAPE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW DEVELOPING EARLY THIS EVENING
ONCE MID LEVELS MOISTEN.
CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORIES ACROSS ERN UPR AND NW LWR MICHIGAN
REMAIN IN LINE WITH LATEST MODEL TRENDS...AND IN COORDINATION WITH
GRR...WILL KEEP ALL HEADLINES IN TACT. STILL EXPECT A GENERAL 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW FOR THESE AREAS...TAPERING TO LESS THAN AN INCH
ACROSS NE LWR MICHIGAN AWAY FROM ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT. CERTAINLY THE
GUSTY SW WINDS WILL PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...AND MAKE
OVERALL DRIVING CONDITIONS RATHER HAZARDOUS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...WHICH DECIDEDLY THROWS THIS EVENT INTO ADVISORY TERRITORY
DESPITE BORDERLINE SNOW AMOUNTS. TEMPS WILL STAY NEARLY STEADY
TONIGHT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S THANKS TO WAA AND AMPLE CLOUD
COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
FORECAST CHALLENGE: SEVERAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES, BRINGING POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION TYPE PROBLEMS, AND LAKE
EFFECT.
(1/28)THURSDAY...THE CLIPPER SYSTEM IS IN EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT
12Z. AS IT MOVES EAST IN THE MORNING, THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP QUITE A BIT BY 18Z, AND WE START GETTING NW WINDS OF 15-
20 KNOTS ACROSS N LOWER AND E UPPER. THIS GETS THE LES GOING AS THE
850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND -10C BY 00Z. NW TO NNW SNOW BANDS
WILL BEGIN TO FORM. HOWEVER, AS THE CLIPPER MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES, DESPITE THE NORTH TO NNW WIND FLOW AND CHILLY AIR
ACROSS LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN, THERE IS VERY DRY AIR TRAILING
THIS SYSTEM AS THE 850-700 MB RH FALLS TO LESS THAN 15% UPSTREAM IN
W UPPER AND WISCONSIN BY 06Z. THE DRY AIR IS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AS WE GET INTO THE OVERNIGHT, WITH THE RH IN THE LAYER AT 10% OR
LESS BY 12Z. WILL THERE BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS? YES, BUT THE INTENSITY
OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT BY 12Z. SO LIGHT AMOUNTS
DURING THE DAY AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST AND MINOR AMOUNTS, MAINLY
NEAR TVC AS THE DRY AIR DIMINISHES THE SNOW SHOWERS.
(1/29)FRIDAY...THERE COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES NEAR TVC AS THE WINDS
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT THE DRY AIR IS FULLY IN CONTROL AND
MINIMIZING THE SNOW PRODUCTION POTENTIAL. SO WILL LEAVE THE MORNING
DRY. AFTER 18Z, THE RIDGE SFC AND 850 MB AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS TURNS THE 1000-850 MB LAYER WINDS FROM WNW TO SW IN A
HURRY. BY 00Z, THE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SW, BUT THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN N LAKE MICHIGAN ARE EXPECTED TO BE -8C(NEAR ST.
IGNACE) OR WARMER. WITH THE WATER TEMPERATURES AROUND +3C THEN WE
DON`T HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO EVEN GET SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL LITTLE TO NO LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN THE
EVENING, BUT THE MAIN SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO THE REGION, WITH THE
WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF US AND THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THE SNOW
GETTING INTO E UPPER AND NW LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY. NOW THEY JUST
BARELY GET THE CHANCE FOR SNOW INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY. FOR MORE
MOST PLACES IT WILL BE A DRY DAY.
AFTER 00Z, THE NEXT CLIPPER, WHICH HAS ITS BAROCLINIC ZONE STRUNG
OUT OVER THE STATE FROM NW TO SE, DROPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND THE SNOW BEGINS TO SPREAD OVER THE STATE. MOST OF THE FOCUS WILL
BE WITH THE MOISTURE WHICH LOOKS LIKE UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS BEING A
CLIPPER SYSTEM, IT`S PRETTY MOISTURE STARVED, SO THE AMOUNTS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT OVER E UPPER AND MINOR TO LIGHT OVER N LOWER.
(1/30)SATURDAY...THE CLIPPER TURNS ITS CORNER NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR, AND BEGINS HEADING EAST INTO QUEBEC BEFORE ITS CORE EVER
GETS TO LAKE SUPERIOR. DRY AIR AT 850 MB WILL PUSH UP INTO THE S
LOWER, AS THE CLIPPER MOVES OUT, AND THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE ON
THE RISE. WINDS REMAIN SW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, SO WILL EXPECT THE
SYSTEM PRECIPITATION (MAINLY SNOW) WILL CONTINUE OUT BY THE
AFTERNOON, AND THE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA, BEFORE SUNSET.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
THINGS CONTINUE TO LOOK ACTIVE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A BRIEF
WARMING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS COULD GET
TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING...RESULTING IN SOME RAIN/MIX PRECIP ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF ARRIVING SNOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH TIMING ISSUES THIS FAR OUT. A SYSTEM IN THE TUE/WED
TIME FRAME IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE MAIN STORY OF THIS EXTENDED. THIS
IS AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SYSTEM...WITH A SOUTHERLY TRACK THAT WILL
ENABLE A GOOD TAP OF GULF MOISTURE TO GO ALONG WITH THE STRONG
FORCING. IT IS A BIT EARLY FOR SPECIFICS...BUT THIS IS A STORM TO
KEEP AN EYE ON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD SNOW THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES JUST NORTH OF
MICHIGAN TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO IFR FROM
WEST T0 EAST AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT FOR NW LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES
BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. LLWS WILL ALSO THIS EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL SW WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...WITH MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITHIN THESE SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REACH GALE FORCE ALONG OUR LAKE MICHIGAN
NEARSHORE AREAS TONIGHT AS SW WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING JUST NORTH OF MICHIGAN. SCA CRITERIA WINDS AND WAVES ARE
EXPECTED FOR OUR LAKE HURON NEARSHORE AREAS. CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH
GALE FORCE ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NEARSHORE AREAS ON THURSDAY AS
WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AND STRENGTHEN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MUCH OF OUR
NEARSHORE AREA THRU THURSDAY...RESULTING IN REDUCED VSBYS.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR MIZ008-015-016-019>021-025-026-031-032.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...MAYHEW
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT WILL BRING A QUICK BURST OF SNOW TO SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ABOUT SAUGATUCK
NORTHWARD WILL SEE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SNOW TONIGHT THAT MAY
ACCUMULATE TO 1 TO 3 INCHES. A FEW SPOTS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN COULD SEE 4 INCHES. OVERNIGHT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA
ON THURSDAY AND BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO THE PICTURE AGAIN FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SOME LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
FOCUS IS ON THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
FAVORED SOUTHWEST FLOW AREAS TONIGHT. WILL BE MAKING NO CHANGES TO
THE GOING HEADLINE. STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME IMPACT FROM
A COUPLE ROUNDS OF QUICK HITTING SNOW TONIGHT. THE HRRR FOR MULTIPLE
RUNS NOW TODAY IS SHOWING SEVERAL BURSTS OF SNOW ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT THAT IS POSSIBLE WITH
DELTA T/S OF 8 TO 11 DEGREE C. STRONG LIFT IS NOTED IN THE BUFKIT
TIME SECTIONS ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. THE LIFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
ONE/TWO PUNCH FROM A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE
AREA TONIGHT. THE FIRST COMES THROUGH IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME WITH
ANOTHER AFTER 06Z. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AT TIMES BUT THE BURST
OF SNOW SHOULD PUT DOWN 1 TO POSSIBLE 4 INCHES OF SNOW. THE HIGHEST
TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE HIGH GROUND ACROSS EASTERN LAKE AND
OSCEOLA COUNTIES.
IMPACTS MAY BE MODULATED SOME HOWEVER BY THE FACT THAT AIR TEMPS ARE
GOING TO BE NEAR FREEZING. ALSO...THE FACT THAT THE BLOWING SNOW
WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY THE WET NATURE OF THE SNOW. OVERNIGHT SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THAT THE DGZ BECOMES UNSATURATED
WITH CONTINUED LIFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER. AGAIN...THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
MAY BE MITIGATED BY THE SLOWING RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT.
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS DELTA T/S PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. MOISTURE DEPTH
IS DECREASING WITH TIME AND THINKING WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT ANYTHING
TOO HEAVY...ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR TWO.
ANOTHER CLIPPER IN THE SERIES ROTATES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND WE
WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN FLANK ONCE AGAIN. 850MB TEMPS ARE TRENDING
TOWARD THE NEED TO INTRODUCE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION. AT THIS POINT
KEPT THINGS ALL LIGHT SNOW WITH CHANCE POPS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
AN ACTIVE WX PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FCST
PERIOD. ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF MIXED LIGHT RAIN
AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN ON SUNDAY AND BRING
RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE 40S.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAP LOTS OF GULF MOISTURE
AS IT ADVANCES NE TOWARD OUR AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ICE GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WHICH WILL ALSO FEATURE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH BY
TUESDAY.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND
EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER THE GENERAL NOTION IS
UNDOUBTEDLY THERE THAT IT COULD POTENTIALLY BRING A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF WINTRY PCPN LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE EVOLUTION OF THAT SYSTEM CLOSELY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM EST WED JAN 27 2016
PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY VFR IS
POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR
OVERNIGHT AS SNOW DEVELOPS. IN ADDITION SW WINDS WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AND REACH 20 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
30 KTS BY LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE
LOW CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WINDS THURSDAY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG BUT WILL STILL GUST TO
AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH 18Z.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
ISSUED A GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY AS IT IS EXPECTED THAT WINDS WILL
SURGE TO GALE FORCE THIS EVENING. THERE IS ABOUT A 6 HOUR WINDOW
TONIGHT WHERE THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TO THE POINT THAT WE ARE
EXPECTING 35-40 KNOT GALES. THE STRONGER GALES WILL BE ALONG THE
HIGHER BLUFFS OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKESHORE...NORTH OF GRAND
HAVEN. WAVES SHOULD BUILD TOWARD 10 FEET OVERNIGHT.
THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY COME DOWN BELOW GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT...BUT
REMAIN UP IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE BOTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED LAST NIGHT AND THAT REMAINS IN
EFFECT NOW FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 205 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. FLOODING CONCERNS ARE
MINIMAL WITH MINOR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
5 DAYS. THE MAIN TOPIC IS MORE THAN LIKELY WHAT COMES TOWARD THE
END OF THE LONG TERM (NEXT WEEK).
A FEW ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BETWEEN NOW AND THIS WEEKEND. EACH ROUND IS EXPECTED
TO BRING MINOR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. SNOWFALL IS THE LIKELY MODE
OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY. MILDER WEATHER WILL BE PUSHING
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THIS WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO
THE 40S BY SUNDAY...IF NOT AS EARLY AS SATURDAY. RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN BY LATE SUNDAY.
THE REAL CONCERN EXTENDS INTO NEXT WEEK WITH WHAT MAY BE A RATHER
POTENT SYSTEM. MANY QUESTIONS STILL EXIST WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND STORM TRACK. THAT SAID...THE STORM LOOKS TO BE EQUIPPED WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE. IF THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS RAIN...WE COULD
BE LOOKING AT RIVER RISES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR MIZ037>039-043>045-050-056-057-064.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
LMZ844>849.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
359 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE
CENTER POSITIONED ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...TRACKING INTO
THE MN ARROWHEAD. SPOTTERS ACROSS THE IN IRON RANGE HAVE REPORTED
ABOUT AN HOUR OF A WINTRY OF SNOW/FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET THIS
AFTERNOON...FOUND JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW. HAVE INTRODUCED
FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE ARROWHEAD ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
FURTHER SOUTH...LATEST SPC RUC 925MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG PUSH
OF WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE WEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON TO RAPIDLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 30 TO AROUND 40 ACROSS
THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION. THE WARM SLOT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH OUR DAYTIMES
HIGHS LIKELY TO BE MET AFTER SUNSET AS TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BEGIN
TO FALL UNTIL THE LOW MAKES IT WAY FAR ENOUGH EAST THE COLD AIR
CAN DROP INTO THE REGION.
CONTINUE TO CARRY SMALL POPS/FLURRIES ON THURSDAY AS THE CYCLONIC
FLOW COMBINED WITH 500MB TEMPS APPROACHING -30C LINGER OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
THURSDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHLAND
THURSDAY EVENING. THE VERY LIGHT WINDS AND PARTIAL CLEAR SKIES COULD
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES DROP WELL DURING THE EVENING...DESPITE
WARMING TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE NIGHT WHEN SSE WINDS DEVELOP AND
HIGH CLOUD COVER MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. LOWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO NEAR THE GUNFLINT TRAIL...TO
AROUND 20 DEGREES NEAR THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...BRINGING WARMER AIR INTO
THE REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING 850 HPA TEMPERATURES OF UP TO
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SW FORECAST AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO THE LOWER 30S. IT COULD BE
HIGHER...IF IT WERE NOT FOR THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND THEN PCPN
THAT WILL COME FROM A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING ESE ACROSS
CENTRAL MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE RELATED PCPN...EXCEPT THE ECMWF IS A BIT
WETTER...FASTER...AND MORE SOUTH THAN THE GFS/CANADIAN/NAM. WHILE
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FORECAST AREA SHOULD PRIMARILY GET
SNOW...THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MIXED PCPN ACROSS THE SW AND
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...POSSIBLY SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. THIS
THREAT WILL NEED TO BE EXAMINED MORE CLOSELY OVER COMING SHIFTS.
SNOW COULD LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SHORTWAVE MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FORECAST
AREA WILL LIKELY GET A TOTAL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD. THE GUNFLINT TRAIN...NE BOUNDARY
WATERS...AND FAR NORTH SHORE COULD GET AROUND 4 TO 5 INCHES.
SATURDAY...MORE ZONAL FLOW AND SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING
SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE AND
DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR
SE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COLDER SUNDAY BECAUSE
OF THE COLDER AIR THAT WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE
NORTHLAND WILL BE AFFECTED BY A STORM SYSTEM DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...PRIMARILY THE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THE
THE GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF ARE CONTINUING TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL FORM A STACKED LOW NEAR THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE ON MONDAY...AND LIFT THROUGH THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF TAKE THE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS
AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT...SPREADING CONSIDERING PCPN
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FORECAST AREA. IT APPEARS PLENTY COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOWFALL DUE TO THE WRAP AROUND COLD AIR COMING DOWN FROM
CANADA. OUR OFFICE WILL NEED TO INCREASE OUR ATTENTION ON THIS
POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM SE MANITOBA...AS OF
LATE THIS MORNING...THROUGH NW ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE LEADING BAND OF SNOW QUICKLY MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS
MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KHYR THROUGH AROUND NOON
WITH A PERIOD OF LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
THIS CLIPPER WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS...FIRST SSW EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN SWITCHING TO THE WEST AND THEN NNW WITH THE
PASSING TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER. THERE WILL BE
ADDITIONAL SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY FOR KINL AND
KHIB ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. EXPECT PRIMARILY MVFR...BUT MORE
SO IFR/MVFR ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
THE WINDS COULD BE PARTICULARLY GUSTY...20 TO 30 KNOTS...THIS
EVENING. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO FORECAST GUSTS THAT HIGH SINCE IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW WELL THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES. THE AIR COMING
DOWN IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH BOUNDARY IS NOT ALL THAT COLD...SO
DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH MIXING. IF THERE IS NOT MUCH
MIXING...MAY NEED TO ADD LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING BECAUSE OF THE STRONG FLOW THAT WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT...ABOUT 40 TO 50 KNOTS AROUND 2 KFT.
THE MVFR CEILINGS COULD LINGER WELL INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN SOME SCATTERING FOR KDLH BY THE LATE MORNING
TO RETURN KDLH TO VFR IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 25 27 12 30 / 40 10 0 60
INL 21 22 10 33 / 50 40 30 80
BRD 27 29 19 34 / 20 10 10 40
HYR 26 27 13 32 / 40 30 0 40
ASX 26 27 12 31 / 60 60 10 50
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM/AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1131 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
FIRST ISSUE THIS MORNING IS A FOG BANK THAT DEVELOPED OVER SW MN
EARLIER TONIGHT WITHIN A LITTLE BUBBLE RIDGE AXIS AND CLEAR SKIES.
ABOUT A 50 MILE WIDE BANK OF FOG DEVELOPED...WHICH HAS BEEN SLOWLY
PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE. LOOKING AT
RWIS AND AIRPORT SENSORS...VISIBILITY IN THIS BANK OF FOG IS DOWN
BETWEEN 1/8TH AND 1/2 MILE. THE HRRR HAS ACTUALLY PICKED UP ON THIS
FOG BANK AND ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION...THOUGH IS A BIT FAST. THE
BIG ISSUE THOUGH IS THE FOG BANK LOOKS TO MAKE IT INTO THE TWIN
CITIES DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE AND WILL CAUSE HUGE HEADACHES AT
MSP IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT HAS ALL NIGHT. BASED ON THE HRRR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS...WAS DETERMINED THAT IT WOULD BE BEST TO BRING IT
INTO MSP...WITH 12Z TO 14Z BEING THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEEING IT.
AFTER THAT...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE POTENT UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN. HI-RES GUIDANCE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH THE COMBINATION OF WARM FRONTAL FORCING
AND STRONG PV-ADVECTION RESULTING IN A NARROW BAND OF PRECIP MOVING
THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE CAMS TO BRING THIS
NARROW BAND OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. ONE
CONCERN THOUGH WITH GETTING PRECIP IS THE VERY DRY LAYER OF AIR ON
THE KMPX SOUNDING LAST NIGHT BETWEEN 800 AND 500 HPA. FORCING COMING
IN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND MAY NOT HANG AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO
MOISTEN THIS LAYER ENOUGH TO ALLOW PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG CAM AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL AGREEMENT IN
SOME LIGHT PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND...DECIDED TO BRING A BAND OF
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE AREA. FOR P-TYPE...WE WILL SEE A
VERY WARM LAYER OF AIR COMING IN AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT
ALOFT...WITH A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LIKELY FOR ANY PRECIP
THAT FALLS SOUTHWEST OF AN ALEXANDRIA...SW TWIN CITIES METRO...
ROCHESTER LINE. BESIDE THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING THIS
MIXED PRECIP...P-TYPE OUTPUTS FROM THE CAMS SHOW A SIMILAR SCENARIO.
FORTUNATELY...WHATEVER FALLS...IT DOES NOT LOOK TO LAST MUCH MORE
THAN AN HOUR OR TWO...SO WILL SEE MINIMAL IMPACTS. THE ONLY AREA
THAT WILL SEE PRECIP CHANCES A BIT LONG ARE FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF
A RUSH CITY/EAU CLAIRE LINE. THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE MAIN
ISENTROPIC LIFT GOING ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD AND NRN WI...SO THEY
WILL GET ON THAT ALONG WITH THE PV FORCING. HERE...WE ARE STILL
CALLING FOR 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW.
WITH THE WARM AIR COMING IN TODAY...WE WILL SEE A NICE WARMING IN
TEMPERATURES...WITH MID/UPPER 30S STILL LOOKING LIKELY IN MN /WITH
A 40 NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN WEST CENTRAL MN/ WITH MORE
LOWER/MID 30S IN WRN WI...WHERE 925-850 TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER. TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE MILD AS WELL...AS COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW WILL BE MORE OF A BACK DOOR FRONT COMING
DOWN FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL KEEP US IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND
WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER FOR ERN MN/WRN WI EXPECTED...WE WILL
LIKELY SEE MANY AREAS THERE STAY IN THE 30S OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
A RATHER ACTIVE LONG TERM AHEAD WITH AT LEAST THREE DIFFERENT
WEATHER SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDINESS. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHING NW TO SE ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER AREA. THIS IS
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON EASTWARD AS THE
BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY EAST. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED AT THIS
POINT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE BY THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MN ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING
AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL BELOW
FREEZING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY
MORNING FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON WESTWARD WITH SOME SNOW AND SLEET
POSSIBLE IN WESTERN WI. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DUE TO THE MOISTURE PROFILE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS REMAINING
IN PLACE. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM THE TWIN CITIES
ON WEST WHILE A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE TO THE EAST.
A CHANCE OF SNOW IS IN STORE FOR THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS A MID LEVEL WAVE AND FRONTOGENETIC
ZONE MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. IF THE CONTINUITY
WITH THESE FEATURES CONTINUE...THEN THE POPS IN THE FORECAST ARE
WAY TOO LOW AND SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW MAY OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. FORTUNATELY...HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE
RATHER MILD AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. THE SNOW COULD MIX
WITH SOME RAIN AT TIMES AND TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.
MONDAY IS THE ONLY DAY IN THE LONG TERM WITH LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE BRIEF DRY PERIOD
WILL GIVE WAY TO A LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM FROM TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. GOOD CONTINUITY CONTINUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON
THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY. THE TRACK WOULD CERTAINLY BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
SNOW (6 INCHES OR MORE) TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN MN...THE TWIN CITIES
AND WESTERN WI. THIS IS CERTAINLY A SYSTEM TO KEEP AN EYE ON. THE
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IS REALLY STRONG ON THE LAST 5 RUNS OF THE
GFS FROM 204 HOURS TO 180 HOURS. EVEN THE ENSEMBLE DATA HAS A MEAN
TRACK VERY CLOSE TO THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS. HENCE...WITH THE
CONFIDENCE PRETTY HIGH ON SNOW OCCURRING...WE RAISED POPS INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY OVER SOUTHERN MN FOR TUESDAY AND ACROSS THE TWIN
CITIES AND WESTERN WI TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE TRACE
AMTS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KEAU WHICH MAY GET A HALF INCH OF
SNOW DURING THE AFTN. THIS WILL LOWER VSBYS IN THE IFR RANGE FOR
AN HR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS UPSTREAM ACROSS WC/NW MN WILL
MOVE SE ACROSS THE MPX CWA. STARTED WITH 2-2.5K...WITH CIGS
POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 1.5K. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH A
SW WIND...BECOMING W/NW DURING THE AFTN/EVENING BUT REMAINING
GUSTY. A PREDOMINATE NW WIND IS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO
20-25 KTS AT TIMES.
KMSP...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET/SNOW FOR AN HR OR
TWO. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP BY THE LATE AFTN
/2.5K/ AND CONTINUE THRU THE TAF PERIOD...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IF
WE RISE ABOVE 3.0K THURSDAY AFTN. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
THRU THE TAF PERIOD...BEGINNING FROM THE SSW...SW BY
20-21Z...WSW/W BY 23Z...WNW/NW AFT 00Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MVFR. CHC -FZRA/-IP EARLY AND -RA IN AFTN. S-SW WIND 10-15 KTS.
SAT...CHC MVFR. CHC IP/SN/RA LATE. WSW WIND 5-10 KT.
SUN...CHC MVFR. CHC SN/RA. NW 5 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1121 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
THE ARCTIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NRN
SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING WILL DIVE TO THE MINNESOTA ARROW HEAD BY
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW SHOULD INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN NEB. THE FRONT
SHOULD REMAIN OVER OR NORTHEAST OF THE MISSOURI BASIN TONIGHT. THE
MODELS SHOW WARM AIR BACKFILLING ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES IN ALBERTA. THUS THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS WITH
THERMAL RIDGING ACROSS NEB THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE RAP INDICATES THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
THIS MORNING WILL DECAY AS THEY MOVE SOUTH AS A RESULT OF MID LEVEL
DIVERGENCE. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A PERIOD OF
DEEP VERTICAL MIXING SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS. THE ECS GUIDANCE SHOWS 51F FOR A HIGH AT VALENTINE. THE
FORECAST USES A BLEND OF THE WARMER MAV...EKD AND ECS GUIDANCE PLUS
BIAS CORRECTION FOR HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTN. SFC MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE
NRN ROCKIES INTO ERN MT WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THUS WARMER
TEMPERATURES...STRONG WINDS AND WET BULB TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S WILL ACCELERATE SNOW MELT.
850-700MB WINDS OF 25 TO 40 KT AND THERMAL RIDGING TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOWS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 DESPITE GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
VERY MILD CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH FOUR
DAYS /INCLUDING TODAY/ IN THE 50S ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. A BIT COOLER IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE MILD WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A PLUME OF WARM AIR ALOFT /H850 MB TEMPS OF
7C TO 12C/. FRIDAY LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE FOUR DAYS...AS A
WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WILL HELP MIX THE WARM
AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A LEAD SHORTWAVE...AHEAD OF MONDAY AND
TUESDAYS STORM SYSTEM...WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW. TEMPERATURES BORDER LINE
FOR SNOW...WITH H850MB TEMPERATURES BARELY BELOW FREEZING AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S SATURDAY NIGHT AND UPPER 30S AND
40S SUNDAY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. TONIGHTS
27/00Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM A BIT
SOUTH OF THE 26/12Z RUNS. FURTHER SHIFTING IS OF COURSE EXPECTED THE
NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
THE 27/00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS ALSO SHIFTED EVER SO SLIGHTLY SOUTH
OF THE 26/12Z MEAN. THE MEAN CENTERS A HEAVY QPF CENTER NEAR MCCOOK
OF 1.2 INCHES LIQUID. AT NORTH PLATTE THE MEAN IS AROUND 0.75 OF AN
INCH...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH. THE TREND IN THE MODELS
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR FURTHER SHIFTING IN
THE STORM TRACK. WITH THE SHIFT SOUTH IN TONIGHTS MODEL
RUNS...DECIDED TO LEAVE POPS AT 50 PERCENT OR LESS FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. DID NOT WANT TO INTRODUCE
LIKELY POPS AT THIS POINT IN CASE THE SOUTHWARD TREND AWAY FROM THE
AREA CONTINUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS WIND AS NORTHWEST GUSTS TO 20 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE. WIND SHOULD DECREASE TO UNDER 12 KTS SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED...WITH CEILINGS
AOA 8KFT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...SNIVELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1240 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT ALONG WITH QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. MAY SEE A SHORT
PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR ARRIVES
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS WHICH DEPICT THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
REACHING THE NY/PA BORDER, I EXPANDED POPS INTO THE TWIN TIERS,
WHERE A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE IN BRIEF
SHOWERS.
THE MOST PERSISTENT LES ACTIVITY HAS DEPARTED THE NORTHERN FA, SO
I WILL ALLOW POPS TO DROP DOWN TO HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY OVER THE
NEXT HOUR, AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
MAXES LOOK GOOD. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3-6
HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS...CURRENTLY EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO ONEIDA...ONONDAGA AND
MADISON COUNTIES AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE FINGER LAKES THIS
MORNING.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TO BE A SMALL ENOUGH EVENT FOR THE ABOVE
MENTIONED AREAS TO NOT ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. EXPECTING
AROUND 1 TO 4 INCHES IN ONEIDA COUNTY...1 TO 2 INCHES IN ONONDAGA
AND MADISON COUNTIES AND AN INCH OR LESS FROM SENECA AND SRN CAYUGA
OVER TO OTSEGO COUNTY.
A STRONG 1000-950MB CONVERGENT ZONE IS BEGINNING TO SET UP ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO AND WILL INTENSIFY AND DROP SOUTHWARD FROM AROUND 11-
15Z. COLD AIR IS ADVECTING IN FROM THE NW ALONG A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS...AND IS COOLING THE AIR ALOFT FASTER THAN THE SFC. THIS
WILL ALLOW LOW LVL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN THIS MORNING AND CREATE
ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL NY. THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER OFF THE RAP AND THE NAM
BOTH INDICATE THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SQUALLS ALONG SERN
PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO AND AREAS INLAND THIS MORNING. SO...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS AS THEY DEVELOP FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
BRIEF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS DURING OR JUST AFTER THE MORNING COMMUTE.
THERE ARE A FEW LIMITING FACTORS WITH THIS EVENT...WHICH WILL KEEP
SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE LOWER SIDE. THE AMT OF DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING
AND THE AIR ALOFT IS NOT AT LEVELS WHICH PROMPT THE HEAVY LES. 850MB
TEMPS ARE ONLY AROUND -10 TO -12 DEG C. BOTH OF THESE WILL HINDER
THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW. THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IS VERY SMALL
AS WELL. BL WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW BETWEEN 10-12Z AND REMAIN
FAVORABLE THROUGH 16-18Z THIS MORNING BEFORE BACKING BACK TO THE SW.
THE LIMITING FACTORS FOR THIS EVENT SEEM TO OUTWEIGH THE
SUPPORTIVE FACTORS...SO HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY
AND GO WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT TO THREAT OF
LES THIS MORNING.
HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOWER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT ALONG WITH A DRIER AIR
MASS AND A SWLY WIND FLOW. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW THE LES TO
COME TO AN END AND KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES IN FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY. THERMAL PROFILES WILL REMAIN
COLD ENOUGH THROUGH THE DURATION OF THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE EXPECTED
TO TRACK THROUGH NRN NEW ENGLAND TO KEEP ALL THE PRECIP IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AND KEEP THE
SNOW AMTS LIGHT. ANOTHER COLD PUSH OF CANADIAN AIR ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO AND INTO CENTRAL NY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR THE NEXT PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
SNOWFALL AMTS MAY BE MORE DUE TO A LONGER PERIOD OF SNOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
215 PM TUE UPDATE...
IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL BE
EMBEDDED WITH WEAK WAVES YET OVERALL WILL BECOME ZONAL OVER THE
WEEKEND...ORIENTATING MORE WSW-ENE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LONG
STORY SHORT IS THAT NO BIG SYSTEMS ARE FORESEEN...AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL.
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION SIDE OF A WEAKENING CLIPPER COULD BRING A
QUICK BATCH OF SNOW SHOWERS-FLURRIES SATURDAY...MIXING WITH RAIN
SHOWERS-SPRINKLES. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THIS WILL BE IN CENTRAL
NEW YORK...BUT WHEREVER IT OCCURS THE ACTIVITY WILL BE QUITE
LIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY...BUT ANOTHER CLIPPER LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY COULD YIELD ANOTHER MINOR BATCH OF MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW...TIMING DIFFERS BY MODEL YET AGAIN ALL OF IT LIGHT.
ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS FORESEEN BEHIND THE CLIPPER MONDAY
NIGHT...STILL WARMER THAN CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUGGEST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS TO BE MOST PREVALENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT NOT MUCH OF A HUGE IMPEDIMENT TO VSBY OR
CIGS. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP DURING THE EARLY
EVENING AND START TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. VFR WILL LIKELY BE FOUND AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS. CLOUDS MAY INCREASE VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND
CIGS MAY START TO DROP. THROUGH EVEN WITH THIS MVFR TO VFR WILL
REMAIN AND STRONGER AND POSSIBLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE IN
PLACE BY 14-16Z.
.OUTLOOK...
THU...VFR MAINLY...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS FROM THE AFTN INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.
FRI-SAT-SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHSN FRI...AND MIXED
SHRA/SHSN OVER THE WEEKEND. MAINLY VFR FOR KAVP.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT/DJP
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...ABS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1152 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
CURRENT FORECAST STILL ON TRACK. MARGINAL GUSTS ON THE PERIMETER
OF THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING...HOWEVER EXPECT WINDS TO
TREND DOWN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 840 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
OPTED TO GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE
NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FAIRLY STRONG
ACROSS THE AREA AND A FEW WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH HAVE BEEN
REPORTED. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING WINDS DIMINISHING
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THUS HAVE THE ENDED THE ADVISORY BY 3PM
CDT. ALSO INCREASED TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AS OBS SHOWED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS A LITTLE BEHIND.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
THE CORE OF 5 MB/3 HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE RISES IS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF ND AS OF 12 UTC...AND RAP GUIDANCE /WHICH HAS
BEEN CAPTURING THIS FEATURE WELL/ TAKES IT SOUTHEAST ACROSS WEST
AND CENTRAL ND BY MIDDAY...WHILE WEAKENING ITS MAGNITUDE. WE HAVE
CHOSEN TO CONTINUE MESSAGING THE SURGE OF STRONG WINDS THAT WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT INSTEAD OF
A WIND ADVISORY SINCE THE WINDS ARE DRIVEN BY ISALLOBARIC FORCING
AND THUS SHOULD DECREASE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AFTER ONLY A FEW
HOURS. THAT HAS BEEN THE THEME IN UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS OVERNIGHT.
IF THE WELL-MIXED LAYER DEEPENS SUFFICIENTLY THEN THE WINDS COULD
REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER NORTH CENTRAL ND...BUT WE
STILL ARE NOT CONFIDENT THAT WILL OCCUR.
OTHERWISE...THE BATCH OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WITH THE WARM FRONT
HAS EXITED THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AS OF 1230 UTC...BRINGING AN
END TO THAT THREAT. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS
UPDATE TO CAPTURE THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE A WINDOW OF
LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAIN REGION SOUTH THROUGH THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...THEN A SURGE
OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING.
CURRENTLY...STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
RAPIDLY MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. WAA
AHEAD OF THE WAVE COUPLED WITH AN INCREASING WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES WARMING UP INTO THE 30S WEST WITH
THIS TREND CONTINUING EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
COUPLE OF CONCERNS WITH THE CLIPPER...THE FIRST BEING FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS MY NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
SOUTH THROUGH WELLS AND FOSTER COUNTY. THIS THREAT SHOULD BE OVER
BY 12Z FOR THESE AREAS. DO NOT FEEL THE NEED FOR A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY AS THE PRECIPITATION IS MOVING SO FAST AND ACCUMULATIONS
WILL GENERALLY BE VERY LIGHT.
SECOND CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH.
WIND GUST OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH PEAK AT 40-45KTS...WITH GUSTS THEN TAPERING OFF BACK INTO
THE 25-30KT RANGE. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THE PEAK WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE...WITH THIS INITIAL WIND SURGE ONLY
LASTING FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. WITH SUB-ADVISORY WINDS FORECAST FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...OPTED TO AN ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT VERSUS A WIND ADVISORY. REASONING: THINK AN ADVISORY IS
OVERKILL FOR AN EVENT WHERE WE WILL ONLY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR AN OB OR TWO WITH THE MIXED LAYER SO SHALLOW AND CAA RATHER
WEAK. WE FELT A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS A BETTER PRODUCT FOR
THIS SCENARIO AND STILL CONVEYS THE WIND THREAT.
WINDS REMAIN BREEZY TONIGHT EAST...TAPERING OFF IN THE EVENING
WEST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
MILD WEATHER WILL FINISH OUT THIS WEEK...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY. A COOLING TREND IS STILL EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
ON THE LARGE SCALE...THE 00 UTC MODEL SUITE AGREED THAT SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AHEAD OF A SERIES OF
IMPULSES THAT WILL ESTABLISH A MEAN 500-MB TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES BY THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY WARM AIR WITH
850-MB TEMPERATURES UP TO +11 C WILL ADVECT EASTWARD INTO WESTERN
ND BY LATE THURSDAY...WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE TRANSLATING EAST AND
WEAKENING BY FRIDAY AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER CROSSES THE AREA. THIS
WILL YIELD WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY
ON FRIDAY WHEN BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL BE MORE EFFICIENT. WIND
POTENTIAL IS ALSO ON OUR MINDS HEADING INTO FRIDAY AS WINDS ALOFT
INCREASE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWS THE ALBERTA CLIPPER...BUT
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS AS THE 00
UTC GUIDANCE HAS A FAIR SPREAD IN 850-MB WIND SPEEDS FROM ONLY 40
KT ON THE NAM TO 55 KT ON THE GFS.
LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL EXIST WITH THE FRIDAY SYSTEM...BUT
IF ANYTHING THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUGGESTED LESS MOISTURE POTENTIAL
IN THAT TIME FRAME THAN EARLIER CYCLES. THEREAFTER...BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SUGGESTED ANOTHER IMPULSE COULD YIELD SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING...AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO
SUNDAY. A MUCH STRONGER...GREATER-AMPLITUDE WAVE IS THEN EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY MONDAY...AND THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY ABOUT TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE 00 UTC MODELS CONTINUED TO
KEEP THIS COLORADO LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...LEAVING US
WITH ONLY A COOL-DOWN TOWARD NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF CYCLE. NORTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH
TONIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ003>005-
011>013-021>023-025.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...MM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
352 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
CURRENTLY AS OF 2 PM...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED A POTENT SHORTWAVE IN WESTERN WISCONSIN AND
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...WITH ANOTHER ONE QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS NEAR
LAKE WINNIPEG. BOTH WERE DIGGING QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD COMING DOWN
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WERE ACCOMPANYING
BOTH WAVES. DRY AIR EVIDENT ON THE 27.12Z MPX AND ABR RAOBS HAVE
KEPT THE SNOW NORTH OF WISCONSIN 29. SECOND BAND OF SNOW LOCATED
IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE THERE. SOUTHERLY
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO TIGHTENING
GRADIENT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOME MINOR DRIFTING SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND ON
THE BLUFF TOPS AND OPEN AREAS OF WESTERN WISCONSIN.
THE 27.12Z MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOUTH OF WISCONSIN 29...DRY AIR WILL WIN OUT AND IT WILL
ONLY RESULT IN SOME LOWERING OF THE CLOUDS FROM 6 TO 8K FEET TO
AROUND 3K FEET. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF
WISCONSIN 29...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ACCUMULATIONS.
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...THE LAKE WINNIPEG SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MINNESOTA
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WITH THE PRIOR SATURATION FROM THE
PREVIOUS SHORT WAVE...THERE WILL SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM
A TRACE TO A COUPLE OF TENTHS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE MODELS SHOW THAT ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. DRY
AIR ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM MAY LIMIT THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS PRECIPITATION...SO KEPT THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIQUID ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. AS A RESULT DEPENDING ON THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURE...THERE MAY BE SOME FREEZING RAIN TO CONTEND WITH.
MEANWHILE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...THERE LOOKS TO BE A WINTRY MIX
OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN...AND SLEET. DUE TO THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA...WE MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ISSUING A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THE AIR MASS WILL SATURATE
ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A
QUESTION ON HOW WARM AND DEEP WILL THE WARM LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL BE. AS A RESULT...JUST WENT WITH RAIN AND SNOW FOR NOW.
FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE 27.12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
THIS LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED DURING THIS TIME. WHILE THESE
MODELS HAVE FAIRLY DECENT TRACK AGREEMENT WITH LOW MOVING JUST
EAST OF DUBUQUE TO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. WITH THIS
TRACK...SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL FAVOR
SNOW ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF WAS JUST FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COULD BE POTENTIALLY WARM ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN IN
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. AS TYPICAL WITH LOWS MOVING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES...THE MODELS ARE QUITE VARIABLE WITH WHEN
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THE ENSEMBLES SHOW
ADDITIONAL REGIONAL VARIABILITY WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.
A FEW OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE AN OPEN WAVE AND AS A
RESULT THIS SYSTEM TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND THE AREA GETS
LITTLE SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM. MEANWHILE A FEW OF THE ECMWF MODELS
ACTUALLY HAVE A MORE WOUND UP SYSTEM AND AS A RESULT...THIS
SYSTEM WOULD TRACK WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE AREA COULD
POTENTIALLY SEE MORE RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. WITH THIS
SAID...THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF QUESTIONS WHICH NEED TO BE
ANSWERED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
BACKED OFF ON LOWER CEILINGS/LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. A DRY AIR MASS FROM
THE SURFACE TO BETWEEN 6000 AND 8000 FT AGL IS LIMITING UPSTREAM
PRECIP TO MAINLY FLURRIES/SNOW GRAINS AND THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE
AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THAT
SAID...KEPT SOME REDUCED MVFR VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW AT KRST
FROM 27.18Z TO 27.22Z AS SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS INTO THE UPPER 20 TO
LOWER 30 KT RANGE MOVE OVER EXISTING SNOW PACK.
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST MN/NORTHEAST ND AND SOUTHERN
CANADA SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS AND LATEST FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
AIRFIELDS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ/BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A POTENT
CLIPPER MOVING EAST OVER THE BOUNDARY WATERS OF MINNESOTA. A SNOW
BAND IS SLIDING EAST AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER IN A WARM ADVECTION
REGIME. VISIBILITIES WERE FALLING TO A QUARTER AND HALF MILE WITHIN
THE BAND OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN EARLY TODAY...INDICATIVE OF HEAVY
SNOW SHOWERS...BUT RADAR EVIDENCE SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGEST SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE WEAKENED SOME. THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
TO THE EAST AND IMPACT MOST OF THE REGION NORTH OF ROUTE 29. IT
COULD BRIEFLY DROP VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE AND ACCUMULATE AROUND A
HALF AN INCH. BEHIND THE BAND OF LIGHT SNOW...SCATTERED FLURRIES AND
DRIZZLE ARE OCCURRING OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AS THE CLIPPER MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...A FAIRLY POTENT YET MOISTURE-STARVED CLIPPER WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSES
BY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. BAND OF WARM ADVECTION SNOWS WILL EXIT
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF LULL
IN THE PRECIP ACTIVITY BEHIND THIS BAND BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...BUT
THEN RELATIVELY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PINWHEEL AROUND BACK INTO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. MOISTURE STRUGGLES TO SATURATE AT TIMES ABOVE -
10C...SO LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES COULD BE MIXED WITH DRIZZLE AT
TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE DURING THE EVENING
TO NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI...SO IMPACTS
FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE IS REDUCED THERE SOMEWHAT. COLDER TEMPS ALOFT
OVER N-C WI SHOULD SEE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE AS SNOW...AND ANY
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY FALL ON EXISTING SNOWFALL. SO THINK
ANY IMPACTS FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE RELATIVELY MINOR...PERHAPS
A FEW SLICK SPOTS COULD DEVELOP ON UNTREATED ROADS. ADDITIONAL SNOW
AMOUNTS COULD REACH AN INCH OR TWO IN THE SNOW BELTS...WHERE LAKE
ENHANCEMENT LATE TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE MORE PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH.
THURSDAY...THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN AN ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION...AND SERVE TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. COMBINED WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER AND FLURRY
ACTIVITY. MORE PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE SNOW
BELT OF N-C WI WHERE AN ADDITIONAL INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THINK THE
SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS WILL NOT MOVE MUCH WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION OCCURRING. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED JAN 27 2016
NW FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO DISSIPATE LATE THIS
WEEK...BUT NOT BEFORE ONE MORE WEAK CLIPPER BRUSHES THE AREA FRI
NGT. AS A NEW UPR RDG BUILDS OVER THE ERN PACIFIC THIS WEEKEND...
THE MEAN FLOW BECOMES SPLIT WITH A WEAK NRN STREAM RUNNING ALONG
THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER AND A STRONGER SRN STREAM RUNNING FROM
THE SW CONUS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. A DEVELOPING SYSTEM IS FCST TO
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT NGT/SUNDAY AND BRING MIXED PCPN TO
NE WI. FOCUS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONTS TO BE A STRONG
SYSTEM PROGGED TO LIFT INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY TUE AND THE GREAT
LAKES ON WED. PLENTY OF TIME YET TO DETERMINE PCPN TYPE OR SNOW
TOTALS...BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE COMING DAYS.
ANY RESIDUAL LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS OR FLURRIES OVER N-CNTRL
WI WL END RATHER QUICKLY THU EVENING AS A RDG OF HI PRES BUILDS
INTO WI. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR A
TIME...ALTHO MODELS DO SHOW HI CLOUDS PUSHING INTO WRN WI LATE THU
NGT AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER. THESE MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FRESH SNOW WL ALLOW TEMPS TO
EASILY FALL. WL NEED TO CHOP READINGS DOWN A GOOD 3 TO 5 DEGS ON
AVERAGE OVER MOST LOCATIONS WITH NRN WI FROM ZERO TO 5 ABOVE...
CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI AROUND 10 ABOVE AND THE LAKESHORE FROM 10 TO 15.
AS THE SFC RDG SLIDES TO OUR EAST ON FRI...A SOUTHERLY WIND TO
DEVELOP ACROSS WI WITH INCREASING ISEN LIFT AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER
WHICH IS FCST TO REACH NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG BY 00Z SAT. CLOUDS WL
CONT TO THICKEN OVER NE WI THRU THE DAY WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
PCPN REACHING NRN AND PARTS OF CNTRL WI IN THE MORNING AND THE
REST OF NE WI DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PCPN TYPE SHOULD REMAIN
ALL SNOW...BUT WL HAVE TO WATCH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
AS WAA COULD MIX IN A LITTLE SLEET. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE GENERALLY
IN THE MID TO UPR 20S.
THE CLIPPER IS FCST TO MOVE EWD INTO WRN ONTARIO FRI NGT AND SWING
A CDFNT ACROSS WI IN THE PROCESS. THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING
IS PROGGED TO BE FROM NRN WI NWD...THUS HIGHER POPS OVER NRN WI
WHERE UP TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. THE QUICK-MOVING
SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM COUPLED WITH LOW SNOW RATIOS WL LIMIT SNOW
AMOUNTS. ONCE AGAIN...THERE MIGHT BE A LITTLE SLEET OR EVEN
FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN WITH THE SNOW FRI EVENING BEFORE COLDER AIR
ALOFT ARRIVES AND CHANGES PCPN TO ALL SNOW. MIN TEMPS COULD
ACTUALLY SLOWLY RISE UNTIL FROPA AND THEN HOLD SOMEWHAT STEADY TIL
DAYBREAK. LOOK FOR READINGS BY SAT MORNING TO BE INTO THE UPR 20S
NORTH...LWR TO MID 30S SOUTH. THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
LATE FRI NGT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING AND COULD END UP AS PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER LATE SAT
MORNING. THIS LEAVES THE REGION UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIE WITH WEST WINDS CONTINUING TO BRING MILD CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA. SAT MAY END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED FCST
WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 30S NORTH...UPR 30S TO LWR 40S
SOUTH.
MODELS CONT TO SEND A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TOWARD
THE WRN GREAT LAKES SAT NGT AS THE MEAN FLOW TO BE TURNING TO THE
SW. PCPN TYPE SHOULD INITIALLY BE ALL SNOW...BUT AS WARMER AIR
GETS PULLED NWD INTON WI TOWARD DAYBREAK...WL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON ANY POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF EITHER RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN OVER
SRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. PCPN TYPE WL REMAIN A CONCERN THRU
SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES RIDES NE ALONG AN EWD MOVING CDFNT.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH HOW MUCH WARM AIR WL BE OVER NE WI AS
THE PCPN FALLS...NOT TO MENTION WHERE THE HEAVIEST PCPN WL FALL.
IT APPEARS THAT THE NORTH WOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW THRU THE DAY...
WHILE RAIN WL MIX WITH THE SNOW CNTRL/FAR NE WI AND A MIX WOULD
CHANGE TO ALL RAIN E-CNTRL. AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD WI
LATER IN THE DAY BEHIND THE CDFNT...THE MIXED PCPN OVER CNTRL WI
COULD BEGIN TO SWITCH BACK TO ALL SNOW. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY TO
RANGE FROM THE LWR TO MID 30S NORTH...MID TO UPR 30S SOUTH.
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW IS FCST TO LINGER INTO SUNDAY NGT AS THIS SYSTEM
TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF PULLING AWAY FROM WI. A QUIET DAY IS
EXPECTED ON MON AS CAA TO BE IN PLAY UNDER A N-NW WIND. THERE MAY
BE SOME LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL OVER N-CNTRL WI...BUT ANY ACTIVITY
LOOKS MINOR AT THIS TIME. MAX TEMPS ON MON TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
THAN THE WEEKEND...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF
FEB.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT STORM THAT IS
PROGGED TO LIFT FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY TUE AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE NGT/WED. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...
THE TRACK OF THE 8H AND SFC LOW PRES AREAS WOULD FAVOR ALL SNOW
FOR THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. HOWEVER...ANY MINOR JOG TO THE WEST
COULD CREATE PCPN TYPE ISSUES FOR E-CNTRL WI. TUE NGT APPEARS TO
BE THE PERIOD WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOWS WOULD FALL WITH LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUING THRU WED. TOO EARLY YET TO CONTEMPLATE ACCUMULATIONS...
BUT WITH GUSTY NE...THEN NORTH WINDS EXPECTED...TUE NGT INTO WED
HAVE THE EARMARKS OF A DIFFICULT TRAVELING PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING CLIPPER MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...WILL SEE BAND OF SNOW MOVE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. VISIBILITIES COULD FALL TO 1/2SM
FOR AN HOUR AND ACCUMULATIONS COULD REACH UP TO AN INCH. EXPECT THE
WORST CONDITIONS TO IMPACT NORTHERN WISCONSIN NORTH OF ROUTE 29. THE
SNOW BAND WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 19-00Z...THEN PRECIP WILL
LIGHTEN TO FLURRIES OR LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. MORE
PERSISTENT WRAP AROUND LIGHT SNOW OR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL
LIKELY CAUSE VSBYS/CIGS TO FALL LATE TONIGHT BEFORE REBOUNDING SOME
THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......MPC