Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/26/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1256 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE NOREASTER WILL IMPACT THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD IN ON SUNDAY...THEN PASS EAST
MONDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BANDS ARE SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST INTO
SOUTHERN CT AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND...AND AWAY FROM NYC...NE NJ
AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY BY 03Z. HRRR INDICATES BAND SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS IT DROPS THROUGH
SE CT AND LONG ISLAND...BUT MAY BE TOO QUICK TO DO SO. GIVEN THAT
AND STRONG N WINDS PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE BLOWING/DRIFTING
SNOW...ALL WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT EXCEPT FOR PUTNAM AND ORANGE
COUNTIES WHERE SNOW HAS ENDED. INCREDIBLE GRADIENT BETWEEN A
DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE NORTHERN REACHES OR ORANGE COUNTY...TO OVER
18 INCHES ONLY 20 MILES SOUTH.
LOW TEMPS LEAN TOWARD NAM MOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM ON SUNDAY.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. BRISK AT THE START...BUT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHTER WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING. TEMPS IN THE
SHORT TERM ARE A NAM/MAV MOS BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGE BUILDS BEHIND DEPARTING TROUGH EARLY THIS TIME FRAME.
THE RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST AS UPSTREAM TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER
MID WEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC WARM FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY
AND MOVES THROUGH...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE/FZDZ PRECEDES THE WARM FRONT ALONG WITH A FEW
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT. NOT MUCH PRECIP THOUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
SFC HIGH BUILDS FROM THE WEST...AS WEAK UPPER TROUGH LAGS A BIT WED
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. NEXT UPSTREAM NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVES
OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED.
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND GULF STATES AS
SFC LOW MOVES OFF THE SE COAST THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. AT THIS
TIME...CONSENSUS SEEMS TO SUGGEST A SOUTH TRACK TO THE
SYSTEM...SANS MUCH CLOSER CANADIAN.
TEMPS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE MID WEEK COLD FRONT...THEN
SETTLE BACK TO AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NOR`EASTER DEPARTS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SUNDAY.
LIGHT SNOW BANDS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN FROM W TO E THROUGH
09Z...WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY THIS MORNING AS
THE STORM PULLS AWAY AND SNOW MOVES EAST OF NYC METRO.
N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT...VFR.
.MON...VFR. WEST WIND 10 KT.
.TUE...IFR/MVFR. SW WIND 15-20G25KT. SCT -SHRA. -FZDZ POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING INLAND.
.WED...VFR. W WIND 10-15 KT.
.THU...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
CONVERTING WARNINGS PER LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED DOWNWARD
TREND. STORM REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN E OF MORICHES UNTIL
06Z...WITH GALES FOR THE OCEAN W OF MORICHES THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...FOR THE BAYS AND ERN SOUND OVERNIGHT...AND SCA FOR THE
WRN SOUND AND NY HARBOR THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
THE STORM DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM
THE WEST SUNDAY.
THE HIGH PASSES SOUTH AND EAST BY MONDAY. WINDS TURN TOWARD THE S/SW
TUESDAY AND WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THIS FRONT PASSES TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
VERY HIGH AND DANGEROUS SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BEGINNING
SUNDAY...WITH OCEAN SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT MON MORNING.
SEAS BUILD AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING SW WINDS ON TUE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
STORM TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF IS MOSTLY AROUND OR JUST OVER AN
INCH ACROSS SOUTHERN CT...1.5-2 INCHES FOR ERN LONG ISLAND AND
MOST OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND 2-2.5 INCHES FOR NE
NJ...THE NYC METRO AREA AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND. PRECIP ALL
SNOW...SO NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS UNTIL SNOW BEGINS TO MELT.
FORTUNATELY THAT PROCESS WILL BE GRADUAL THIS WEEK...AS HIGH
TEMPS REACH THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S MID WEEK.
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED MOST OF NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH MAY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A STORM MODELED BY MOST
GUIDANCE TO PASS TO THE SE ON FRI.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A POWERFUL NOR`EASTER WILL RESULT IN 2 MORE EPISODES OF MAINLY MINOR
TO LOCALLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
MORE NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR PREVIOUS HIGH TIDES TO RESULT
IN LOWER WATER LEVELS BUT THE OVERALL THREAT FOR MINOR TO LOCALLY
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS GOING INTO THIS EVENING AS SURGE
VALUES WILL STILL REACH NEAR 3 FT IN SOME LOCATIONS.
POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1 1/2 TO 2 FT WERE NEEDED FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AND 2 1/4 TO 3 FT FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING.
STEVENS INSTITUTE SFAS HAS DONE REMARKABLY WELL WITH THE SURGE FOR
THIS SYSTEM...WITH SURGE GENERALLY PEAKING AT 2 TO 3 FT THIS MORNING
AND WILL REMAIN THE SAME FOR THIS EVENING HIGH TIDE.
FOR THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 2 TO 2
1/2 FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...AND 3 TO 4 FT FOR
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. WITH SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FT EXPECTED
TONIGHT...BUT ASTRO TIDES ABOUT 1/2 FT LOWER...EXPECTATION IS FOR
MAINLY MINOR IMPACTS TONIGHT FOR NY HARBOR...EASTERN BAYS AND
NORTH FACING PORTIONS OF WESTERN SUFFOLK/NASSAU FACING WESTERN LI
SOUND. THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD ELIMINATE THE RISK FOR COASTAL
FLOODING FOR COASTAL WESTCHESTER AND SW CT. FOR THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU AND WESTERN SUFFOLK...MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS ARE
STILL EXPECTED...BUT WATER LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW MAJOR LEVELS.
THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY SOME LOCALIZED MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
FOR HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHERN QUEENS COASTLINES IF WATER
IS NOT DRAINING OUT TOO FAST. THE FORECAST WATER LEVEL THIS EVENING
GETS CLOSE TO THE MODERATE BENCHMARK BUT FOR NOW IS IN MINOR FLOOD
FORECAST.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LI/NYC...WITH THE
SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE AS WATERS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO RECEDE.
IN ADDITION TO SURGE POTENTIAL...AN EASTERLY SWEEP OF 8 TO 12
FT SURF WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR DUNE TOE EROSION ALONG ALL
ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED OVERWASH FOR THE
BARRIER BEACHES FROM FIRE ISLAND AND POINTS WEST THROUGH SUN. THIS
IS BASED ON USGS COASTAL CHANGE HAZARDS MODELING FOR A GALE FORCE
NOR-EASTER. IN ADDITION...THE OPEN WATER EXPOSED GARDINERS BAY
BEACHFRONT OF THE TWIN FORKS OF LI...ORIENT POINT...AND N/NE FACING
LI SOUND BEACHFRONT WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION.
&&
.CLIMATE...
BELOW ARE THE TOP TEN SNOWFALLS /IN INCHES/ FOR CENTRAL PARK NYC
AS OF 7 PM TODAY. ONCE SNOW ENDS OR AT MIDNIGHT...WHICHEVER
COMES FIRST...WE MAY KNOW WHETHER CENTRAL PARK HAS BROKEN THE ALL-
TIME SINGLE STORM SNOWFALL RECORD.
26.9...FEB 11-12 2006
25.8...DEC 26-27 1947
25.1...JAN 22-23 2016...TOTAL SNOW FORECAST OF 28.1 INCHES
21.0...MAR 12-14 1888
20.9...FEB 25-26 2010
20.2...JAN 7-8 1996
20.0...DEC 26-27 2010
19.8...FEB 16-17 2003
19.0...JAN 26-27 2011
18.1...JAN 22-24 1935 AND MAR 7-8 1941
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009>012.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
CTZ005>008.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ078-079-081-177.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ078>081-
177-179.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ080-081-
178-179.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
TODAY FOR NYZ080-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-340-
345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ335-338.
GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ353-355.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1049 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER JUST OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION MID WEEK WHICH MAY
STALL ALONG THE COAST AND KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD JUST OFF THE COAST TONIGHT.
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT MAY HELP LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING POTENTIAL. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
THE COAST WITH A DECOUPLED AIRMASS. THE HRRR SHOWS REDUCED
VISIBILITIES STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN CSRA INTO THE PEE DEE
REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY AHEAD OF FRONT IN THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A MODEST INCREASE
IN MOISTURE...MAINLY HIGH LEVEL. FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
WEST OF THE REGION. WARM ADVECTION SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. FRONT PARALLEL TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW SO EXPECTED TO BE SLOW
MOVING INTO REGION WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE PIEDMONT WHERE CONVERGENCE
STRONGEST. FRONT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. DEEP MOISTURE
SPREADING NORTHEAST FROM GULF OF MEXICO AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
MODERATELY STRONG AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS FOR LARGE
SCALE LIFT. IN-SITU WEDGE LIKELY DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOIST ADIABATIC. SO WILL CONTINUE
NEAR LIKELY POPS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND
FRONT AS NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH FRONT THAN PREVIOUS ECMWF.
LATEST SUPERBLEND POPS SUGGEST RAIN CHANCE THRU THURSDAY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE GEORGIA/CAROLINA COAST. WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY AND COOL TEMPERATURES. WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR WILL BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITION THROUGH 08Z.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. INCREASING
CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES TUESDAY NIGHT.
HRRR...NAM AND NARRE MODELS INDICATING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE 08Z-15Z SUPPORTING CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS. MODELS ALSO
SHOWING SOME MIXING DUE TO A LOW LEVEL JET WHICH WOULD INDICATE
STRATUS CLOUDS RATHER THAN FOG. GFS AND SREF MODELS STILL NOT
SHOWING RESTRICTIONS. LATEST RAP MODEL SHOWING MUCH LESS IN THE
WAY OF RESTRICTIONS. MOS GUIDANCE STILL NOT INDICATING
RESTRICTIONS. THE MODELS DISAGREEMENT LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE
FOR RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE RESTRICTIONS IN TAFS.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHWEST 8 TO 10
KNOTS WITH GUST 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY MIDDAY TUESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1003 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER JUST OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION MID WEEK WHICH MAY
STALL ALONG THE COAST AND KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD JUST OFF THE COAST TONIGHT.
MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
THE EVENING. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT MAY HELP LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES.
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
THE COAST WITH A DECOUPLED AIRMASS. THE HRRR SHOWS REDUCED
VISIBILITIES STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN CSRA INTO THE PEE DEE
REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY AHEAD OF FRONT IN THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A MODEST INCREASE
IN MOISTURE...MAINLY HIGH LEVEL. FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
WEST OF THE REGION. WARM ADVECTION SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. FRONT PARALLEL TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW SO EXPECTED TO BE SLOW
MOVING INTO REGION WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE PIEDMONT WHERE CONVERGENCE
STRONGEST. FRONT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. DEEP MOISTURE
SPREADING NORTHEAST FROM GULF OF MEXICO AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
MODERATELY STRONG AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS FOR LARGE
SCALE LIFT. IN-SITU WEDGE LIKELY DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOIST ADIABATIC. SO WILL CONTINUE
NEAR LIKELY POPS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND
FRONT AS NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH FRONT THAN PREVIOUS ECMWF.
LATEST SUPERBLEND POPS SUGGEST RAIN CHANCE THRU THURSDAY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE GEORGIA/CAROLINA COAST. WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY AND COOL TEMPERATURES. WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR WILL BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITION THROUGH 08Z.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. INCREASING
CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES TUESDAY NIGHT.
HRRR...NAM AND NARRE MODELS INDICATING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE 08Z-15Z SUPPORTING CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS. MODELS ALSO
SHOWING SOME MIXING DUE TO A LOW LEVEL JET WHICH WOULD INDICATE
STRATUS CLOUDS RATHER THAN FOG. GFS AND SREF MODELS STILL NOT
SHOWING RESTRICTIONS. LATEST RAP MODEL SHOWING MUCH LESS IN THE
WAY OF RESTRICTIONS. MOS GUIDANCE STILL NOT INDICATING
RESTRICTIONS. THE MODELS DISAGREEMENT LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE
FOR RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE RESTRICTIONS IN TAFS.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHWEST 8 TO 10
KNOTS WITH GUST 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY MIDDAY TUESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
703 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER JUST OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION MID WEEK WHICH MAY
STALL ALONG THE COAST AND KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD JUST OFF THE COAST TONIGHT.
MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
THE EVENING. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT MAY HELP LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES.
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
THE COAST WITH A DECOUPLED AIRMASS. THE HRRR SHOWS REDUCED
VISIBILITIES STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN CSRA INTO THE PEE DEE
REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY AHEAD OF FRONT IN THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A MODEST INCREASE
IN MOISTURE...MAINLY HIGH LEVEL. FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
WEST OF THE REGION. WARM ADVECTION SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. FRONT PARALLEL TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW SO EXPECTED TO BE SLOW
MOVING INTO REGION WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE PIEDMONT WHERE CONVERGENCE
STRONGEST. FRONT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. DEEP MOISTURE
SPREADING NORTHEAST FROM GULF OF MEXICO AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
MODERATELY STRONG AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS FOR LARGE
SCALE LIFT. IN-SITU WEDGE LIKELY DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOIST ADIABATIC. SO WILL CONTINUE
NEAR LIKELY POPS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND
FRONT AS NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH FRONT THAN PREVIOUS ECMWF.
LATEST SUPERBLEND POPS SUGGEST RAIN CHANCE THRU THURSDAY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE GEORGIA/CAROLINA COAST. WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY AND COOL TEMPERATURES. WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR WILL BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITION THROUGH 08Z.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WAS PRODUCING HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE TAF SITES. INCREASING CLOUDS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES TUESDAY NIGHT.
HRRR...RAP AND NAM MODELS INDICATING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE 08Z-15Z SUPPORTING CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS. MODELS ALSO
SHOWING SOME MIXING DUE TO A LOW LEVEL JET WHICH WOULD INDICATE
STRATUS CLOUDS RATHER THAN FOG. GFS AND SREF MODELS STILL NOT
SHOWING RESTRICTIONS. MODELS DISAGREEMENT LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE
FOR RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE RESTRICTIONS IN TAFS.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHWEST 8 TO 10
KNOTS WITH GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS BY MIDDAY TUESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1134 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
Warming up into the upper 30s and lower 40s today for Central
Illinois. Southerly winds and mostly sunny skies will continue
through much of the day, assisting the warm up. Clouds approaching
the north around sunset, but until then, rather quiet for Central
Illinois. Forecast is doing well, and only slight adjustments
needed.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
08z/2am surface analysis shows ridge of high pressure extending from
the eastern Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast. Southerly return flow on
the back side of the high is beginning to bring warmer air into the
western half of the KILX CWA, where current temperatures are in the
lower to middle 20s. Meanwhile further east where winds are
lightest, temperatures are in the teens and fog has developed. Have
occasionally seen a report of dense fog: however, this does not
appear to be a good set-up for widespread dense fog. HRRR forecast
only shows modestly restricted visbys across the eastern CWA until
shortly after sunrise...as southerly return flow increases on the
back side of the departing high. Based on latest trends, will
mention patchy fog along/east of I-57 early this morning. Once the
fog dissipates, partly to mostly sunny skies will prevail for the
balance of the day. Due to the sunshine and southerly winds of 10
to 15 mph, afternoon high temperatures will climb a few degrees
above guidance into the middle to upper 30s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
Next weather-maker across central Illinois is currently evident on
water vapor imagery over the Great Basin. As this short-wave trough
moves eastward, a surface low will develop in the lee of the Rockies
across eastern Colorado today. Models continue to handle the system
quite well, with the low tracking to near Kansas City by Monday
morning...then into eastern Iowa by Monday evening. With this
particular track, central Illinois will remain in the warm sector of
the system with rain as the primary precip type. There will be a
narrow window of opportunity for some freezing drizzle early Monday
morning: however, given initially dry airmass, am skeptical any
precip will arrive before surface temps climb above freezing. Will
still include mention of freezing drizzle early, but am not
expecting any appreciable accumulation of ice. As the low
approaches and the atmosphere slowly moistens, rain showers will
become more prevalent across the area. Forecast soundings never
fully saturate through a deep layer, so do not think the precip will
be heavy or widespread. As a result, have opted to keep PoPs in
the chance category across much of the CWA, with likely PoPs
confined to locations along/northwest of a Jacksonville to
Bloomington line in closer proximity to the low track. Aside
from the light rain chances, strong southerly winds gusting to
between 25 and 30 mph will boost afternoon high temperatures into
the lower 40s. As the low lifts into the Great Lakes, colder air
will return to the region Monday night, turning any residual rain
showers to snow showers. Based on the expected track of the low,
think the deformation zone precip will only graze the N/NW CWA. As
such, have only included mentionable PoPs for light snow after
midnight northwest of the I-55 corridor. Due to wet ground
conditions and temps above freezing, little or no snow
accumulation is expected.
Once the Monday system departs, a shot of colder air will arrive on
Tuesday and Wednesday with highs settling back into the lower to
middle 30s. Both the GFS and ECMWF continue to show a clipper
system passing well to the north of Illinois on Thursday, keeping
the area dry. After that, all model solutions indicate a return to
a zonal flow pattern across the CONUS. This will bring a milder
Pacific-origin airmass into central Illinois, resulting in
temperatures rebounding well into the 40s by Friday and perhaps
even into the lower 50s in some areas by Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
Not much of a change in the forecast. BKN cirrus and southerly
winds becoming more southeasterly overnight. Big shift in the
forecast will come in the way of low stratus after midnight and
before dawn. Moving clouds in according to the timing of the
925-850mb RH in the NAM12. Starting FZDZ shortly afterwards in a
tempo. Temps should warm to above freezing before 16z, but keep
the low clouds and DZ.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1059 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
Warming up into the upper 30s and lower 40s today for Central
Illinois. Southerly winds and mostly sunny skies will continue
through much of the day, assisting the warm up. Clouds approaching
the north around sunset, but until then, rather quiet for Central
Illinois. Forecast is doing well, and only slight adjustments
needed.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
08z/2am surface analysis shows ridge of high pressure extending from
the eastern Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast. Southerly return flow on
the back side of the high is beginning to bring warmer air into the
western half of the KILX CWA, where current temperatures are in the
lower to middle 20s. Meanwhile further east where winds are
lightest, temperatures are in the teens and fog has developed. Have
occasionally seen a report of dense fog: however, this does not
appear to be a good set-up for widespread dense fog. HRRR forecast
only shows modestly restricted visbys across the eastern CWA until
shortly after sunrise...as southerly return flow increases on the
back side of the departing high. Based on latest trends, will
mention patchy fog along/east of I-57 early this morning. Once the
fog dissipates, partly to mostly sunny skies will prevail for the
balance of the day. Due to the sunshine and southerly winds of 10
to 15 mph, afternoon high temperatures will climb a few degrees
above guidance into the middle to upper 30s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
Next weather-maker across central Illinois is currently evident on
water vapor imagery over the Great Basin. As this short-wave trough
moves eastward, a surface low will develop in the lee of the Rockies
across eastern Colorado today. Models continue to handle the system
quite well, with the low tracking to near Kansas City by Monday
morning...then into eastern Iowa by Monday evening. With this
particular track, central Illinois will remain in the warm sector of
the system with rain as the primary precip type. There will be a
narrow window of opportunity for some freezing drizzle early Monday
morning: however, given initially dry airmass, am skeptical any
precip will arrive before surface temps climb above freezing. Will
still include mention of freezing drizzle early, but am not
expecting any appreciable accumulation of ice. As the low
approaches and the atmosphere slowly moistens, rain showers will
become more prevalent across the area. Forecast soundings never
fully saturate through a deep layer, so do not think the precip will
be heavy or widespread. As a result, have opted to keep PoPs in
the chance category across much of the CWA, with likely PoPs
confined to locations along/northwest of a Jacksonville to
Bloomington line in closer proximity to the low track. Aside
from the light rain chances, strong southerly winds gusting to
between 25 and 30 mph will boost afternoon high temperatures into
the lower 40s. As the low lifts into the Great Lakes, colder air
will return to the region Monday night, turning any residual rain
showers to snow showers. Based on the expected track of the low,
think the deformation zone precip will only graze the N/NW CWA. As
such, have only included mentionable PoPs for light snow after
midnight northwest of the I-55 corridor. Due to wet ground
conditions and temps above freezing, little or no snow
accumulation is expected.
Once the Monday system departs, a shot of colder air will arrive on
Tuesday and Wednesday with highs settling back into the lower to
middle 30s. Both the GFS and ECMWF continue to show a clipper
system passing well to the north of Illinois on Thursday, keeping
the area dry. After that, all model solutions indicate a return to
a zonal flow pattern across the CONUS. This will bring a milder
Pacific-origin airmass into central Illinois, resulting in
temperatures rebounding well into the 40s by Friday and perhaps
even into the lower 50s in some areas by Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
Predominantly VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the
central Illinois terminals through the 12Z valid time. However, as
a storm system approaches the area late tonight, IFR stratus/fog
may develop, especially at KPIA, KBMI, & KSPI.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
535 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
08z/2am surface analysis shows ridge of high pressure extending from
the eastern Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast. Southerly return flow on
the back side of the high is beginning to bring warmer air into the
western half of the KILX CWA, where current temperatures are in the
lower to middle 20s. Meanwhile further east where winds are
lightest, temperatures are in the teens and fog has developed. Have
occasionally seen a report of dense fog: however, this does not
appear to be a good set-up for widespread dense fog. HRRR forecast
only shows modestly restricted visbys across the eastern CWA until
shortly after sunrise...as southerly return flow increases on the
back side of the departing high. Based on latest trends, will
mention patchy fog along/east of I-57 early this morning. Once the
fog dissipates, partly to mostly sunny skies will prevail for the
balance of the day. Due to the sunshine and southerly winds of 10
to 15 mph, afternoon high temperatures will climb a few degrees
above guidance into the middle to upper 30s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
Next weather-maker across central Illinois is currently evident on
water vapor imagery over the Great Basin. As this short-wave trough
moves eastward, a surface low will develop in the lee of the Rockies
across eastern Colorado today. Models continue to handle the system
quite well, with the low tracking to near Kansas City by Monday
morning...then into eastern Iowa by Monday evening. With this
particular track, central Illinois will remain in the warm sector of
the system with rain as the primary precip type. There will be a
narrow window of opportunity for some freezing drizzle early Monday
morning: however, given initially dry airmass, am skeptical any
precip will arrive before surface temps climb above freezing. Will
still include mention of freezing drizzle early, but am not
expecting any appreciable accumulation of ice. As the low
approaches and the atmosphere slowly moistens, rain showers will
become more prevalent across the area. Forecast soundings never
fully saturate through a deep layer, so do not think the precip will
be heavy or widespread. As a result, have opted to keep PoPs in
the chance category across much of the CWA, with likely PoPs
confined to locations along/northwest of a Jacksonville to
Bloomington line in closer proximity to the low track. Aside
from the light rain chances, strong southerly winds gusting to
between 25 and 30 mph will boost afternoon high temperatures into
the lower 40s. As the low lifts into the Great Lakes, colder air
will return to the region Monday night, turning any residual rain
showers to snow showers. Based on the expected track of the low,
think the deformation zone precip will only graze the N/NW CWA. As
such, have only included mentionable PoPs for light snow after
midnight northwest of the I-55 corridor. Due to wet ground
conditions and temps above freezing, little or no snow
accumulation is expected.
Once the Monday system departs, a shot of colder air will arrive on
Tuesday and Wednesday with highs settling back into the lower to
middle 30s. Both the GFS and ECMWF continue to show a clipper
system passing well to the north of Illinois on Thursday, keeping
the area dry. After that, all model solutions indicate a return to
a zonal flow pattern across the CONUS. This will bring a milder
Pacific-origin airmass into central Illinois, resulting in
temperatures rebounding well into the 40s by Friday and perhaps
even into the lower 50s in some areas by Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
Predominantly VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the
central Illinois terminals through the 12Z valid time. However, as
a storm system approaches the area late tonight, IFR stratus/fog
may develop, especially at KPIA, KBMI, & KSPI.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
324 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
08z/2am surface analysis shows ridge of high pressure extending from
the eastern Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast. Southerly return flow on
the back side of the high is beginning to bring warmer air into the
western half of the KILX CWA, where current temperatures are in the
lower to middle 20s. Meanwhile further east where winds are
lightest, temperatures are in the teens and fog has developed. Have
occasionally seen a report of dense fog: however, this does not
appear to be a good set-up for widespread dense fog. HRRR forecast
only shows modestly restricted visbys across the eastern CWA until
shortly after sunrise...as southerly return flow increases on the
back side of the departing high. Based on latest trends, will
mention patchy fog along/east of I-57 early this morning. Once the
fog dissipates, partly to mostly sunny skies will prevail for the
balance of the day. Due to the sunshine and southerly winds of 10
to 15 mph, afternoon high temperatures will climb a few degrees
above guidance into the middle to upper 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
Next weather-maker across central Illinois is currently evident on
water vapor imagery over the Great Basin. As this short-wave trough
moves eastward, a surface low will develop in the lee of the Rockies
across eastern Colorado today. Models continue to handle the system
quite well, with the low tracking to near Kansas City by Monday
morning...then into eastern Iowa by Monday evening. With this
particular track, central Illinois will remain in the warm sector of
the system with rain as the primary precip type. There will be a
narrow window of opportunity for some freezing drizzle early Monday
morning: however, given initially dry airmass, am skeptical any
precip will arrive before surface temps climb above freezing. Will
still include mention of freezing drizzle early, but am not
expecting any appreciable accumulation of ice. As the low
approaches and the atmosphere slowly moistens, rain showers will
become more prevalent across the area. Forecast soundings never
fully saturate through a deep layer, so do not think the precip will
be heavy or widespread. As a result, have opted to keep PoPs in
the chance category across much of the CWA, with likely PoPs
confined to locations along/northwest of a Jacksonville to
Bloomington line in closer proximity to the low track. Aside
from the light rain chances, strong southerly winds gusting to
between 25 and 30 mph will boost afternoon high temperatures into
the lower 40s. As the low lifts into the Great Lakes, colder air
will return to the region Monday night, turning any residual rain
showers to snow showers. Based on the expected track of the low,
think the deformation zone precip will only graze the N/NW CWA. As
such, have only included mentionable PoPs for light snow after
midnight northwest of the I-55 corridor. Due to wet ground
conditions and temps above freezing, little or no snow
accumulation is expected.
Once the Monday system departs, a shot of colder air will arrive on
Tuesday and Wednesday with highs settling back into the lower to
middle 30s. Both the GFS and ECMWF continue to show a clipper
system passing well to the north of Illinois on Thursday, keeping
the area dry. After that, all model solutions indicate a return to
a zonal flow pattern across the CONUS. This will bring a milder
Pacific-origin airmass into central Illinois, resulting in
temperatures rebounding well into the 40s by Friday and perhaps
even into the lower 50s in some areas by Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
The latest surface analysis shows the surface high pressure ridge
has now moved eastward enough that southerly winds are beginning
to increase from KBMI-KSPI westward diminishing temperature falls
and decreasing the potential for dense fog in these areas.
Nevertheless...increasingly moist southerly winds combined with
snow covered ground may allow at least some thin fog to form. To
the east temperatures continue to drop and locally dense fog has
been observed this evening. As the night goes on, high pressure
should continue to move eastward allowing southerly winds to
steadily mix out pockets of dense fog in east-central IL.
Otherwise...VFR conditions expected through 24 hours with periods
of mid-upper level clouds. Winds S up to 10 kts
overnight...becoming south 10-15 kts after 18Z.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1136 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
Patchy fog developing as expected this evening with mostly thin
high cloud cover over the area and relatively moist conditions.
Temperatures have been falling somewhat faster than anticipated
and have decreased min temperatures for tonight given current
trends with efficient radiational cooling especially in areas with
calm or very light winds. Although the surface high pressure ridge
roughly centered over Illinois is bringing light winds across the
area...the areas with calm winds most prevalent run through the
center of the state including Lacon to Lincoln to Effingham and
Olney.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
Low level moisture under the ridge and relatively clear skies under
the ridge early will result in a little bit of a fog threat tonight.
Ridge axis shifts ESE of ILX, and flow becomes increasingly
southerly, and winds pick up towards dawn, especially in the west.
However, the southerly fetch to the winds keeps feeding higher
dewpoints over a significant snow pack. RAP and HRRR developing
area of fog right in the center of the CWA tonight and slowly
spreading over the center of the state. Not convinced of any one
particular location with this set up, as the east has the lighter
winds, the north has less of a snow pack. The west has the light
winds early, though already warmer. The east is cooler overnight,
and significantly cooler than xover temps this afternoon. The east
is, so far, the best chance for possible widespread and/or dense
fog, with RH values maxing out for several hours after midnight.
Low confidence in model performance of late with regards to
fog/stratus, patchy fog is in the forecast across Central
Illinois.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
After patchy fog to start the day on Sunday, the end of the weekend
should be pleasant, with temperatures warming into the mid to upper
30s, under partly sunny skies and steady southerly winds.
Then, the next storm system will approach quickly for Monday
morning. The upper low that just entered Oregon on the West Coast,
will progress across the central Rockies on Sunday, then create a
surface low in the lee of the Rockies late Sunday afternoon. That
low will progress southeast through Kansas, then northeast across NW
Illinois late on Monday. Increasing low level moisture and
isentropic lift early Monday morning could be enough to squeeze out
some drizzle or freezing drizzle, due to a lack of ice crystals
above the lowest cloud layer. The 12z NAM continues to indicate a
colder surface layer throughout the morning than the GFS, Canadian,
and ECMWF. We leaned toward the warmer solution, and surface temps
rising above freezing in the entire forecast area by 15z/9 am.
Still, some slippery conditions could develop as the dry and cold
road pavement become coated in a thin layer of ice for a few hours.
The models are also slowing down the arrival of the low in NW
Illinois until closer to 00z/6pm, so the onset of precip may be
delayed enough to allow temps to climb above freezing before
rain/drizzle starts. Have still included a mention of freezing
drizzle between 12z/6am and 15z/9am Monday due to the potential
impact for the morning commuters.
Precipitation chances look to increase to Likely for the afternoon,
north of Jacksonville to Champaign, then diminish Monday night as
colder air begins to arrive. The change-over to snow appears to
delay long enough that snow accumulation (if any) will be less than
a half inch in any one location. Most areas will probably little to
no accumulation.
Flurries look to linger northeast of a line from Galesburg to
Lincoln to Paris on Tuesday as a lobe of upper level energy rotates
across northern Illinois. Based on Bufkit sounding analysis in the
NAM, GFS and SREF, there is low potential of another dusting of snow
in our NE counties, but we will keep only a mention of flurries on
Tuesday at this time.
Dry conditions are expected the remainder of the extended forecast.
The GFS and ECMWF show a clipper passing north of Illinois on
Thursday, while the Canadian Global indicates a farther south
intrusion of low pressure into Illinois, developing a period of snow
on Thursday in most of Illinois. We continued with a dry forecast
however, until better agreement occurs on precip potential.
One theme in the far extended that the models agree on is for zonal
flow to provide a warming trend into next weekend, with highs into
the 40s on Friday and Saturday, with low 50s possible on Saturday
south of I-72.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
The latest surface analysis shows the surface high pressure ridge
has now moved eastward enough that southerly winds are beginning
to increase from KBMI-KSPI westward diminishing temperature falls
and decreasing the potential for dense fog in these areas.
Nevertheless...increasingly moist southerly winds combined with
snow covered ground may allow at least some thin fog to form. To
the east temperatures continue to drop and locally dense fog has
been observed this evening. As the night goes on, high pressure
should continue to move eastward allowing southerly winds to
steadily mix out pockets of dense fog in east-central IL.
Otherwise...VFR conditions expected through 24 hours with periods
of mid-upper level clouds. Winds S up to 10 kts
overnight...becoming south 10-15 kts after 18Z.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
355 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH
INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING CHANCES FOR
RAIN. BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT SNOW MAY BEGIN TO MIX IN ACROSS MAINLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70...AND POSSIBLY TRANSITION TO A VERY SHORT
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING. FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY TUESDAY...CHANCES FOR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
A COLD FRONT QUICKLY PASSES ACROSS INDIANA. DRY WEATHER WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016
PATCHY FOG WILL LIFT OUT LATER THIS MORNING AND GIVE WAY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY IN THE DAY. AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE...SKIES
WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. A BLEND OF MOS SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPERATURE TREND WHICH PUTS HIGHS
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON. VERY LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS WERE
NEEDED TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST OTHER THAN THE ADDITION OF
PATCHY FOG MENTIONED IN THE GRIDS UNTIL 14Z THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN THE CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES
AS OF LATE. FORECASTING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S...TAKING
INTO CONSIDERATION THE ONGOING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SLOWLY
INCREASING CLOUDINESS.
MODELS PROJECT THAT A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING AND RETAINED
LIKELY POPS FOR LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...CONSIDERING THE DECENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THERE MAY BE MORE IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN THE GUIDANCE IS PREDICTING.
TEMPERATURES OF COURSE STILL WAY TO WARM FOR ANYTHING BUT LIGHT
RAIN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS
DEPICTING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA AND
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET TO VALUES WHERE SNOW WILL
LIKELY BEGIN MIXING IN WITH RAIN AND EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO A
VERY SHORT DURATION OF LIGHT SNOW BEFORE THIS FEATURE QUICKLY
DEPARTS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHS POPS ARE WHERE
THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING LIE...ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS IS ALSO THE LOCATION WHERE A WINTRY
MIX IS POSSIBLE LATE. PRECIP MAY REMAIN IN THE FORM OF ALL RAIN
FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS.
REMOVED ANY MENTION OF POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THE COLUMN LOOKS EVEN
DRIER THIS RUN AND WENT WITH A CHANCE OF FLURRIES FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY...WITH THE FOCUS MORE FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE I 70
CORRIDOR.
COMPLETELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SKIES
WILL BE A BIT ON THE SLOW SIDE TO CLEAR OUT...SO LEFT IN AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016
WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW INITIALLY WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. ONE OR MORE WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BE NEAR THE AREA
THROUGH THE LONG TERM...BUT AT THIS TIME THESE LOOK LIKELY TO HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT BEYOND SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER. THUS...WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DRY EXTENDED PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE PERIOD WEARS ON.
MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THIS SLIGHTLY WITHOUT STRONGER RIDGING
ACROSS THE AREA BUT OTHERWISE SEE LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO IMPROVE UPON
GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT.
BLENDED INITIALIZATION HANDLED THINGS RELATIVELY WELL...AND MADE FEW
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 24/09Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 231 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016
SOME ADJUSTMENT REQUIRED. FOG HAS NOT GOTTEN AS BAD AS ANTICIPATED
AT HUF...BUT CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG WITH FOG AT
LAF...REQUIRING AMENDMENT. IND/BMG IN GOOD SHAPE SO FAR. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 1129 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ILLINOIS WITH
SOME LIFR AND LOWER VISIBILITIES. OVER WESTERN INDIANA MVFR
VISIBILITIES HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP AND AS OF 430Z ARE IN PLACE
OVER KLAF AND KHUF. THE LATEST SREF GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH
PROBABILITIES OF VISIBILITIES LOWER THAN 1SM DEVELOPING OVER KHUF
BY AROUND 9Z AND LASTING THROUGH 12Z BUT QUICKLY IMPROVING AFTER
THAT. SREF GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL AT KLAF BUT
PROBABILITIES DO NOT GET AS HIGH THERE OR LAST AS LONG. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW THESE SITES HAVING THE WORST
CONDITIONS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY KHUF. WITH THIS ISSUANCE WILL
START WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT KHUF AS EXPECT THEM TO DROP THERE BY
ISSUANCE TIME OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER AND INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR 1/2SM
AROUND 9-12Z. AT KLAF MAY START MVFR BUT DROP TO IFR WITHIN AN
HOUR OR TWO AND MAY INCLUDE A TEMPO LIFR GROUP BUT KEEP IT SHORTER
THAN AT KHUF. AT KBMG AND KIND DO NOT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GET AS
BAD. WILL GO PREVAILING MVFR DEVELOPING IN A COUPLE HOURS AND
HANGING AROUND INTO THE MORNING. STILL THINK THE WINDS INCREASING
IN STRENGTH BEFORE DAYBREAK AND THE CIRRUS OFF THE RIDGE WILL STOP
CONDITIONS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. AFTER FOG BREAKS UP AROUND 13-15Z
SHOULD SEE VFR THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMF/JP
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...CP/NIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
230 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM AND AVIATION SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. A WARM FRONT
WILL APPROACH INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN.
MORE PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT QUICKLY PASSES ACROSS INDIANA. DRY WEATHER WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1004 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
FOG IS DEVELOPING ACROSS ILLINOIS...WITH VISIBILITY BELOW 2 MILES AT
DANVILLE AT THE MOMENT. LIGHT WINDS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE
ALLOWED DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TO GET TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES AT SEVERAL
LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE MOMENT.
LATEST HI RES SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW PATCHY FOG SPREADING EAST INTO
INDIANA TONIGHT. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND MODEL FORECAST DATA...HAVE
ADDED PATCHY FOG ALL AREAS TONIGHT.
WOULD NOT RULE OUT LOCALLY DENSE FOG. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASING LATER TONIGHT AND WINDS PICKING UP TOWARD SUNRISE WITH
WARM ADVECTION...DO NOT FEEL WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS LIKELY.
WITH PARTS OF THE AREA MOSTLY CLEAR AT THE MOMENT...AND LOWER SKY
COVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...INCREASING
CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION LATER TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM GETTING TOO COLD.
PORTIONS OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.
GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE STRONG RIDGING ALOFT TO THE
WEST WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY...WILL ONLY EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES DUE TO SOME HIGH PASSING CIRRUS. AS THE RIDGE
APPROACHES TONIGHT THE UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
WESTERLY...ALLOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO RESUME. HOWEVER A LACK
OF CLOUD...LIGHT WINDS AND SNOWPACK MAY COUNTERACT THAT. THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD A BLEND OF THE MAVMOS/METMOS FOR LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES THIS PERIOD WILL INITIALLY BE
TEMPS...FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES MON MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST SUNDAY THROUGH MID DAY MONDAY
AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT RIDGING ALOFT ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS REMAIN
DRY DURING THUS PERIOD SHOWING SUBSIDENCE. THUS WILL LOOK FOR
JUST SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
PASSING HIGH CIRRUS ALOFT. WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. 850MB TEMPS LOOK TO
RISE TO 2C BY 18Z SUNDAY AND TO NEARLY 4C BY MONDAY. THUS WILL
TREND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND STICK CLOSE ON SUNDAY
NIGHT LOWS GIVEN THE SNOWPACK. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND PEAK HEATING HOURS ON MONDAY...THUS WILL
USE A BLEND ON HIGH THERE...TRENDING TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE
VALUES.
WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE GFS
290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SUGGEST STRONG LIFT MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA BY 00Z TUESDAY WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 5 G/KG. MODELS
ALSO SUGGEST AN ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE ALOFT AS THIS FEATURE
PASSES. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WILL
TREND TOWARD POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
FORCING AND MOISTURE LOOK GOOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PRECIP
TYPE SHOULD BE RAIN AS THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE COLUMN REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING.
GFS AND NAM THEN SUGGEST A SWIFT MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE
ON MONDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE...DROPPING
TEMPS IN THE COLUMN TO BELOW FREEZING. ALOFT...AN EVEN STRONGER
SHORT WAVE APPEARS POISED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN A BIT MORE SUSPECT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT
SUGGEST DEEP MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE...BUT ALONG THE TRAPPING OF
SOME LOWER LEVEL STRATOCU. THUS WILL INCLUDE SOME SMALL POPS ON
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRAY SNOW SHOWER
OR FLURRY...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...SIGNIFICANT SNOWS DO NOT APPEAR
LIKELY. GIVEN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...WILL TREND LOWS ON MONDAY
NIGHT AT OR BELOW MAVMOS AND COOLER THAN MEXMOS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016
WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW INITIALLY WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. ONE OR MORE WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BE NEAR THE AREA
THROUGH THE LONG TERM...BUT AT THIS TIME THESE LOOK LIKELY TO HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT BEYOND SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER. THUS...WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DRY EXTENDED PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE PERIOD WEARS ON.
MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THIS SLIGHTLY WITHOUT STRONGER RIDGING
ACROSS THE AREA BUT OTHERWISE SEE LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO IMPROVE UPON
GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT.
BLENDED INITIALIZATION HANDLED THINGS RELATIVELY WELL...AND MADE FEW
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 24/09Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 231 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016
SOME ADJUSTMENT REQUIRED. FOG HAS NOT GOTTEN AS BAD AS ANTICIPATED
AT HUF...BUT CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG WITH FOG AT
LAF...REQUIRING AMENDMENT. IND/BMG IN GOOD SHAPE SO FAR. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 1129 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ILLINOIS WITH
SOME LIFR AND LOWER VISIBILITIES. OVER WESTERN INDIANA MVFR
VISIBILITIES HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP AND AS OF 430Z ARE IN PLACE
OVER KLAF AND KHUF. THE LATEST SREF GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH
PROBABILITIES OF VISIBILITIES LOWER THAN 1SM DEVELOPING OVER KHUF
BY AROUND 9Z AND LASTING THROUGH 12Z BUT QUICKLY IMPROVING AFTER
THAT. SREF GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL AT KLAF BUT
PROBABILITIES DO NOT GET AS HIGH THERE OR LAST AS LONG. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW THESE SITES HAVING THE WORST
CONDITIONS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY KHUF. WITH THIS ISSUANCE WILL
START WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT KHUF AS EXPECT THEM TO DROP THERE BY
ISSUANCE TIME OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER AND INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR 1/2SM
AROUND 9-12Z. AT KLAF MAY START MVFR BUT DROP TO IFR WITHIN AN
HOUR OR TWO AND MAY INCLUDE A TEMPO LIFR GROUP BUT KEEP IT SHORTER
THAN AT KHUF. AT KBMG AND KIND DO NOT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GET AS
BAD. WILL GO PREVAILING MVFR DEVELOPING IN A COUPLE HOURS AND
HANGING AROUND INTO THE MORNING. STILL THINK THE WINDS INCREASING
IN STRENGTH BEFORE DAYBREAK AND THE CIRRUS OFF THE RIDGE WILL STOP
CONDITIONS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. AFTER FOG BREAKS UP AROUND 13-15Z
SHOULD SEE VFR THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/50
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...CP/NIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1149 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. A WARM FRONT
WILL APPROACH INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN.
MORE PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT QUICKLY PASSES ACROSS INDIANA. DRY WEATHER WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1004 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
FOG IS DEVELOPING ACROSS ILLINOIS...WITH VISIBILITY BELOW 2 MILES AT
DANVILLE AT THE MOMENT. LIGHT WINDS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE
ALLOWED DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TO GET TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES AT SEVERAL
LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE MOMENT.
LATEST HI RES SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW PATCHY FOG SPREADING EAST INTO
INDIANA TONIGHT. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND MODEL FORECAST DATA...HAVE
ADDED PATCHY FOG ALL AREAS TONIGHT.
WOULD NOT RULE OUT LOCALLY DENSE FOG. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASING LATER TONIGHT AND WINDS PICKING UP TOWARD SUNRISE WITH
WARM ADVECTION...DO NOT FEEL WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS LIKELY.
WITH PARTS OF THE AREA MOSTLY CLEAR AT THE MOMENT...AND LOWER SKY
COVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...INCREASING
CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION LATER TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM GETTING TOO COLD.
PORTIONS OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.
GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE STRONG RIDGING ALOFT TO THE
WEST WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY...WILL ONLY EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES DUE TO SOME HIGH PASSING CIRRUS. AS THE RIDGE
APPROACHES TONIGHT THE UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
WESTERLY...ALLOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO RESUME. HOWEVER A LACK
OF CLOUD...LIGHT WINDS AND SNOWPACK MAY COUNTERACT THAT. THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD A BLEND OF THE MAVMOS/METMOS FOR LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES THIS PERIOD WILL INITIALLY BE
TEMPS...FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES MON MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST SUNDAY THROUGH MID DAY MONDAY
AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT RIDGING ALOFT ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS REMAIN
DRY DURING THUS PERIOD SHOWING SUBSIDENCE. THUS WILL LOOK FOR
JUST SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
PASSING HIGH CIRRUS ALOFT. WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. 850MB TEMPS LOOK TO
RISE TO 2C BY 18Z SUNDAY AND TO NEARLY 4C BY MONDAY. THUS WILL
TREND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND STICK CLOSE ON SUNDAY
NIGHT LOWS GIVEN THE SNOWPACK. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND PEAK HEATING HOURS ON MONDAY...THUS WILL
USE A BLEND ON HIGH THERE...TRENDING TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE
VALUES.
WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE GFS
290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SUGGEST STRONG LIFT MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA BY 00Z TUESDAY WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 5 G/KG. MODELS
ALSO SUGGEST AN ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE ALOFT AS THIS FEATURE
PASSES. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WILL
TREND TOWARD POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
FORCING AND MOISTURE LOOK GOOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PRECIP
TYPE SHOULD BE RAIN AS THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE COLUMN REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING.
GFS AND NAM THEN SUGGEST A SWIFT MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE
ON MONDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE...DROPPING
TEMPS IN THE COLUMN TO BELOW FREEZING. ALOFT...AN EVEN STRONGER
SHORT WAVE APPEARS POISED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN A BIT MORE SUSPECT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT
SUGGEST DEEP MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE...BUT ALONG THE TRAPPING OF
SOME LOWER LEVEL STRATOCU. THUS WILL INCLUDE SOME SMALL POPS ON
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRAY SNOW SHOWER
OR FLURRY...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...SIGNIFICANT SNOWS DO NOT APPEAR
LIKELY. GIVEN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...WILL TREND LOWS ON MONDAY
NIGHT AT OR BELOW MAVMOS AND COOLER THAN MEXMOS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 209 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
ENSEMBLES INDICATE TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST WITH
TIME...LEAVING RATHER ZONAL FLOW LOCALLY BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
SYSTEM THAT MAY AFFECT THE AREA AT THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT TERM
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. ONLY OTHER CONCERN
DURING THIS PERIOD IS A POTENTIAL CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM THAT MAY
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AROUND NEXT THURSDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS BRING SOME LIGHT QPF TO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...BUT
THE MAJORITY ARE STILL DRY. WILL KEEP A DRY EXTENDED FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 240600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1129 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ILLINOIS WITH
SOME LIFR AND LOWER VISIBILITIES. OVER WESTERN INDIANA MVFR
VISIBILITIES HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP AND AS OF 430Z ARE IN PLACE
OVER KLAF AND KHUF. THE LATEST SREF GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH
PROBABILITIES OF VISIBILITIES LOWER THAN 1SM DEVELOPING OVER KHUF
BY AROUND 9Z AND LASTING THROUGH 12Z BUT QUICKLY IMPROVING AFTER
THAT. SREF GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL AT KLAF BUT
PROBABILITIES DO NOT GET AS HIGH THERE OR LAST AS LONG. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW THESE SITES HAVING THE WORST
CONDITIONS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY KHUF. WITH THIS ISSUANCE WILL
START WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT KHUF AS EXPECT THEM TO DROP THERE BY
ISSUANCE TIME OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER AND INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR 1/2SM
AROUND 9-12Z. AT KLAF MAY START MVFR BUT DROP TO IFR WITHIN AN
HOUR OR TWO AND MAY INCLUDE A TEMPO LIFR GROUP BUT KEEP IT SHORTER
THAN AT KHUF. AT KBMG AND KIND DO NOT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GET AS
BAD. WILL GO PREVAILING MVFR DEVELOPING IN A COUPLE HOURS AND
HANGING AROUND INTO THE MORNING. STILL THINK THE WINDS INCREASING
IN STRENGTH BEFORE DAYBREAK AND THE CIRRUS OFF THE RIDGE WILL STOP
CONDITIONS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. AFTER FOG BREAKS UP AROUND 13-15Z
SHOULD SEE VFR THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/50
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
314 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
LOW CLOUDS HAVE ERODED FROM THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE FLOW HAS BACKED FROM SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
AND ITS AFFECT ON LOWS...THEN ON INCREASING PCPN THREAT TOWARD
DAYBREAK. HRRR AND RAP INDICATE THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
ORIENT SW TO NE ALONG NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT FROM
NEAR WATERLOO TO AMES TO ATLANTIC AND HAVE LEFT THE SOUTH PARTLY
CLOUDY INTO THE EARLY MORNING. THIS MAY CAUSE LOWS IN THE SOUTH TO
FALL MORE THAN PROJECTED AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
FARTHER NORTH...THE LOW STRATUS WILL KEEP THE DIURNAL RANGE QUITE
TIGHT WITH ONLY A MINOR DIP OVERNIGHT.
LIFT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS SYSTEM CROSSES THE
PLAIN. THIS WILL START TO SQUEEZE OUT LIGHT PCPN FROM THE STATUS
TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING.
THEREFORE...HAVE EXPANDED THE -FZDZ THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME DRIZZLE IN THE FAR SOUTH
WHERE TEMPS WILL BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...THE BEST PCPN
THREAT WILL COME ON MONDAY AS MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH AS
LIFT INTENSIFIES.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION EVENT SLATED FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
HAS CHANGED IN OVERALL FORECAST THINKING AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
UNANIMOUSLY SHOW THE COLUMN SATURATING FROM THE BOTTOM UP ON
MONDAY MORNING...CLEARLY WARMER THAN THE ICE GROWTH ZONE AND
AT LEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN TWO THIRDS OR SO OF OUR AREA
CLEARLY BELOW FREEZING AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS A STRONG SET UP
FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF WHAT HAPPENED THIS
MORNING WITH SHALLOWER MOISTURE AND LESS LIFT. THE TWO REAL
QUESTIONS ARE WHERE THE FREEZING LINE...EITHER IN TERMS OF AIR
TEMPERATURE OR SURFACE TEMPERATURE...WILL BE LOCATED WHEN
PRECIPITATION BEGINS AND ALSO TO WHAT EXTENT ROADS WILL BE ABLE
TO ICE UP GIVEN LATENT HEAT RELEASE AND CHEMICAL TREATMENTS.
CONFIDENCE IN THESE DETAILS IS LOW BUT DESPITE THE
UNCERTAINTIES...AND GIVEN THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF ICY ROADS ON
THE MORNING COMMUTE...HAVE DEEMED IT PRUDENT TO ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 12Z MONDAY.
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW...EXCEPT IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE WARMING WILL LEAD TO
JUST LIGHT RAIN...THEN ON MONDAY NIGHT THE SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY
DEPART TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. WHILE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS...IT MAY PRODUCE OR
EXACERBATE SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS AND ALSO AS WINDS STRENGTHEN
LATE MONDAY WILL RESULT IN SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHILE SNOW IS FALLING. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES OF TIMING PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGES AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF POOR ROAD CONDITIONS AND BLOWING SNOW IN THE
EVENING...HAVE CARRIED THE ENTIRE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE FORECAST IS QUIET WITH A RATHER
PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND. GIVEN THE PREDICTED RIDGING
ALOFT...GENERALLY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND EXPECTED LACK
OF SNOW COVER ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA...HAVE INCREASED
FORECAST HIGHS FROM THURSDAY ONWARD WITH TEMPERATURES NOW WELL
INTO THE 40S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS. AROUND SATURDAY
IT APPEARS THAT A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AND MAY GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW AT THIS RANGE AND HAVE STUCK WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...24/18Z
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
LOW CEILINGS WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF IOWA FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST AS MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH STEEP INVERSION. FARTHER SOUTH...MVFR
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH VFR CEILING...MAINLY FROM
HIGH CIRRUS. AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES OVERNIGHT...THE ENTIRE
AREA WILL LIKELY SEE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WITH DRIZZLE AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH KALO, KMCW
AND KFOD LIKELY TO SEE THE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND IMPACTS TO
AVIATION. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
GRADUALLY TO THE EAST BY MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY
NIGHT FOR AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-
CASS-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-POCAHONTAS-SAC-
STORY-TAMA-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...COGIL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1057 PM MST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MST SAT JAN 23 2016
UPPER RIDGE THAT BROUGHT MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PARTS
OF THE AREA TODAY WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE EXTREMELY HIGH IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
BUT REMAIN RATHER LOW IN EASTERN PARTS WHERE LOW CLOUDS PERSISTED
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. IF FOG WERE TO DEVELOP IT WOULD BE IN
EASTERN AREAS. HRRR NOT SHOWING MUCH BUT SREF PROBABILITIES
DO...SO MIGHT MENTION SOME FOG IN THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AS THE SURFACE LOW
STRENGTHENS IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THOSE TWO FACTORS WILL RESULT
IN COOLER TEMPERATURES...MAINLY HIGHS IN THE 50S...BUT STILL
ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION STILL APPEARS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY EVENING AS THE MAIN UPPER FORCING ARRIVES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MST SAT JAN 23 2016
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THE POSSIBILITY
OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING BETWEEN SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY
MORNING.
THE INCOMING UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TRANSITIONING THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY EVENING AND MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW CENTER MOVES FROM SOUTHEAST
COLORADO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND INTO EASTERN IOWA BY LATE MONDAY. THE QUICK MOVEMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE CONFINED MAINLY TO
THE 06Z- 18Z TIMEFRAME...MEANS THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE
COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST MOISTURE FOR A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME MAINLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP EXPECTED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO AROUND ONE HALF INCH OR LESS.
COLD AIR PUSHING SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S ON MONDAY.
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
AMPLIFYING UPPER FLOW PATTERN...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE...A LACK OF MOISTURE...AND THE QUICK TRANSITION OF THESE
WAVES...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL GRADUALLY WARM AS THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
HIGH PLAINS BY THURSDAY. THE SURFACE FLOW ALSO TURNS MORE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE FLATTENING UPPER FLOW
INDUCES A BROAD LEE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THAT WILL ALSO
BRING DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND DRYING TO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
GRADUALLY INCREASED HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM MST SAT JAN 23 2016
FOR KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD. NEAR 01Z A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO COME
THROUGH AND CAUSE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SINCE IT IS LATE IN THE FORECAST...CHOSE TO INSERT VCSH AT THIS
TIME.
FOR KMCK...SOME LIGHT FOG...6SM BR/VFR...IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MORNING DUE TO A LIGHT WIND FIELD AND MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS. BY
18Z THAT FOG SHOULD END AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AND INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME MODEL OUTPUT
BRINGS IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER INCONSISTENT MODEL OUTPUT AND BEING LATE IN THE
PERIOD...CHOSE TO KEEP ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTION OUT.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER THIS PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1128 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 254 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
Upper level ridging continues to build east over the southern and
central plains per the 20Z water vapor imagery. A shortwave was
moving east along the Canadian boarder with ND and a second
shortwave was moving across the Pacific Northwest with the upper
trough axis extending south along the west coast. At the surface,
high pressure has been weakening over the plains as a lee trough
slowly deepens.
For tonight and Sunday, dry weather should prevail as upper ridging
eventually gives way to southwest flow aloft. While there should be
increasing large scale forcing Sunday afternoon as shortwave energy
lifts out from the southern Rockies, mid levels of the atmosphere
remain pretty dry. The bulk of the forecast problems in the short
term deal with the boundary layer. The low stratus has been hanging
on longer this afternoon than earlier expected, and the RAP and NAM
forecast soundings suggest the boundary layer may have a hard time
mixing out the low level moisture thanks to the snow cover. If the
stratus does scatter out this evening, radiational cooling could
cause fog to develop. Although reasonable mixing in low levels
suggests stratus may be favored over fog. So in general am somewhat
pessimistic the low clouds will go away completely. Think there
could be some fog overnight, especially across north central KS
where short term models all pinpoint lower visibilities, but there
is not much confidence in dense fog due to the low level mixing.
Think clouds will stick around, have adjusted min temps up into the
mid 20s for most areas. For Sunday the concern is whether the low
clouds and fog will persist through the day as models, within a low
level warm air advection pattern, begin to advect higher dewpoints
across the snow cover. With this in mind, have trended highs cooler
in the upper 30s across northeast and north central KS where the
snow is deeper. There may be some sun across east central KS
that could help warm temps into the mid 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 254 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
Tomorrow night a mid level shortwave trough begins to lift out over
the central plains. Surface low pressure will form along a front
stretching from southwest KS to far northeast KS. Temperatures
overnight will depend of the frontal position, and the extensive cloud
cover. As the trough approaches from the west low level lift will
increase along with saturation. The lift appears to increase
mainly around and after midnight especially near the front. During
the morning hours there appears to be a lack of ice in the cloud.
Therefore drizzle will be the main precipitation type until the
mid level trough arrives. Where exactly the sub freezing
temperatures will be located when the drizzle begins is uncertain.
As of now it appears that freezing drizzle will be most likely
along and northwest of a line from Salina to Hiawatha. These
locations could experience slick roads by late Monday morning,
which will depend highly on the road surface temperatures.
Elsewhere temperatures will be just slightly above freezing, so
expect mainly drizzle. Through the late morning hours the front
pushes southward as the trough axis begins to swing across the area.
There are some models showing mid level moisture associated with the
shortwave along with some lift. This may be enough to support ice in
the cloud and therefore either rain, snow, or both. The only area in
question is far southern portions of the forecast area where this
saturation is not as certain. So as the trough passes overhead there
is a chance for a brief period of rain and or snow during the
afternoon hours. One could argue sleet as a possibility given the NAM
shows melting and refreezing layers aloft. Have left the mention of
sleet out for now with the very light amounts anyway. The best
chance for snow is north central and far northern KS, although
accumulations appear very light. All the precipitation exits the
area Monday evening with quiet weather expected through next week. A
warming trend is also on the way with highs in the 50s by Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
TAFs remain a bit difficult at this point. Believe that current
MVFR vis conditions are likely to persist through around 16Z at
all sites, although brief periods of light to calm winds could
reduce to IFR or LIFR at any given time, particularly in the
valleys at MHK and TOP.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1040 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
THE LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING WESTERN
PARTS OF THE CWA ATTM. MEANWHILE...THE EASTERN VALLEYS ARE
STARTING TO REBOUND FROM EVENING LOWS NEAR FREEZING AS THEIR
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO CLIMB. THIS IS ALLEVIATING CONCERNS FOR ANY
MORE THAN ISOLATED SPOTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT. AS
SUCH...HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO LIMIT THIS THREAT AND ALSO ADJUST
THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. AN UPDATED SET OF ZONES IS
FORTHCOMING...AS WELL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 840 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
01Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE INFLUENCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FRONT IS
STILL MOSTLY DRY AS IT IS CROSSING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WELL OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT A BAND OF LIGHT PCPN IS TRYING TO DEVELOP
OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS AND INTO EASTERN OHIO. WHILE THERE REMAINS
A DEEP SNOWPACK THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND A DECK OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE KEEPING MUCH OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY RATHER MILD WITH READINGS IN THE MID 40S ON
RIDGES AND INTO THE MORE OPEN AREAS. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE EASTERN
VALLEYS...UNDER A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
FALL TO NEAR FREEZING AND THIS COULD POSE A PROBLEM AS THE LIGHT
PCPN MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT. DO BELIEVE THAT THESE COLD SPOTS
WILL MIX OUT AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL PCPN...THOUGH. DEWPOINTS REMAIN
RATHER DRY...IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S...THROUGHOUT THE AREA BUT
HAVE BEEN COMING UP IN THE VALLEYS AND OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
CLOSER TO FREEZING. THESE WILL BE KEY TO ANY WETBULBING FOR SUB
FREEZING TEMPS AS THE LIGHT RAIN MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT. THE
LATEST HRRR KEEP THE PCPN ON OUR FRINGES THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS...BEFORE MOVING IN TOWARDS DAWN. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE HWO AND MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE SPS LATER
THIS EVENING. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THESE RIDGE TO
VALLEY DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ALONG WITH
NUDGING THE POP AND WX GRIDS TOWARD THE LATEST HRRR. THESE UPDATED
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 457 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A STACKED SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION HAS PRODUCED HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S THIS AFTERNOON...HELPING TO MELT A GOOD DEAL
OF THE RESIDUAL SNOWPACK FROM THIS PAST WEEKEND/S SYSTEM. WARMING
WILL CONTINUE FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING BEFORE LOW STRATUS MOVES IN
AND HALTS THE WARMUP. INCREASING MOISTURE THIS EVENING WILL RESULT
IN LOWERING CLOUD DECKS WITH RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH AND INTO THE BLUEGRASS REGION BY EARLY-MID EVENING.
PRECIPITATION GENERATION WILL BE AIDED BY A 35-45 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
SKIRTING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR HOW QUICKLY LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS DECOUPLE AND
SUBSEQUENTLY COOL THIS EVENING BEFORE THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OR TWO OF FREEZING RAIN ON ROAD
SURFACES AS RWIS DATA CURRENTLY SUGGEST ISOLATED PAVEMENT SURFACES
HOVERING AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PEAK LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64 AND ESPECIALLY NEARER THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY
AND TENNESSEE BORDER. DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW
IN NATURE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
SOUNDINGS APPEAR MOIST ENOUGH TO WARRANT CONTINUATION OF DRIZZLE FOR
A PERIOD BEFORE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE TROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT...THUS TRANSITIONING PRECIPITATION TO SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN ALONG WITH A FEW FLURRIES AS FURTHER COOLING
AND CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW TAKES PLACE. NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH
PRECIPITATION TO WORRY ABOUT ANY WINTRY TYPE ACCUMULATION FOR
NOW...BUT A FEW SLICK SPOTS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE ON ELEVATED
SURFACES AND ROADS FREE OF ANY RESIDUAL SALT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
A DEEP POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH...EXPANDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH TEXAS...WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
BEGINS DEEPENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE FIRST TROUGH
WILL PASS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AROUND
THE TIME THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME THE
PREDOMINATE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THIS SECONDARY TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT SHIFTS EAST...REACHING THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN EXITING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
GENERALLY INCREASING HEIGHTS SHOULD TAKE HOLD FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MORE ZONAL FLOW SETS IN FOR THE WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS ARE IN
SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THIS ZONAL FLOW...GENERALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
TO START THE DAY WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE HOLD AT THE
SURFACE DESPITE THE FIRST OF THE TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH. THE ONLY
IMPACT WE WILL LIKELY SEE FROM THIS IS CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND
DECREASING TEMPS...AS COOLER CANADIAN AIR GETS PULLED IN
ALOFT...WITH ONLY LOW TO MID 30S FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH MORE
SOUTHERLY WINDS TAKING HOLD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE
HIGH...AND TEMPERATURE BEGINNING A WARMING TREND ONCE MORE. THE
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE/TROUGH WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE
GREAT LAKE REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD
AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS. THIS WILL BRING POP POTENTIAL INTO THE CWA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...QPF REMAINS LOW...AND THERE IS AN OBVIOUS LACK OF
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO STICK WITH ONLY
SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS AND LIGHT QPF AT THIS TIME. THERE IS SOME
CONCERNS WITH PRECIP TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM...GIVEN THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE MOISTURE. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SNOW IN THE NORTH...HOWEVER IN
THE SOUTHWEST...LATEST GFS40 SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTING YET ANOTHER
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT. THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS FORECAST...AND GIVEN THAT IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT /DAY
4/...DECIDED TO PLAY THE SAFE ROUTE AND JUST MENTIONED RAIN AND
SNOW MIXTURE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH FOR AS WE NEAR ONSET.
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN KEEP WEATHER DRY
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE
REGION WILL BE IN RELATION TO THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS PRODUCED ALONG
THE ZONAL FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW...LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT 18Z SUNDAY...WILL HAVE A
STATIONARY FRONT WHICH WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST...PIVOTING ACROSS KY
SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH SOUTHERLY AIR WILL BE
PULLED IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE TO
CREATE DECENT WAA...AS WELL AS MOISTURE ADVECTION. THIS WILL LEAD
TO BOTH INCREASING TEMPS AND POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD SWATH OF PRECIP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. GIVEN THE WARM STATUS /HIGHS MAY
ACTUALLY REACH THE MID AND UPPER 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS/...STILL EXPECTING THIS ROUND OF PRECIP TO FALL IN THE
FORM OF RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 730 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING...
BEFORE LOWERING CEILINGS MATERIALIZE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD DEVELOP AT ALL SITES SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT LIKELY LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS -SHRA
OCCURS. HAVE INCLUDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL SITES THIS
EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. SFC WINDS WILL PICK UP BY MID MORNING TUESDAY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT NEAR 10 KTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN/GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
840 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
01Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE INFLUENCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FRONT IS
STILL MOSTLY DRY AS IT IS CROSSING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WELL OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT A BAND OF LIGHT PCPN IS TRYING TO DEVELOP
OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS AND INTO EASTERN OHIO. WHILE THERE REMAINS
A DEEP SNOWPACK THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND A DECK OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE KEEPING MUCH OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY RATHER MILD WITH READINGS IN THE MID 40S ON
RIDGES AND INTO THE MORE OPEN AREAS. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE EASTERN
VALLEYS...UNDER A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
FALL TO NEAR FREEZING AND THIS COULD POSE A PROBLEM AS THE LIGHT
PCPN MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT. DO BELIEVE THAT THESE COLD SPOTS
WILL MIX OUT AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL PCPN...THOUGH. DEWPOINTS REMAIN
RATHER DRY...IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S...THROUGHOUT THE AREA BUT
HAVE BEEN COMING UP IN THE VALLEYS AND OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
CLOSER TO FREEZING. THESE WILL BE KEY TO ANY WETBULBING FOR SUB
FREEZING TEMPS AS THE LIGHT RAIN MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT. THE
LATEST HRRR KEEP THE PCPN ON OUR FRINGES THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS...BEFORE MOVING IN TOWARDS DAWN. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE HWO AND MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE SPS LATER
THIS EVENING. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THESE RIDGE TO
VALLEY DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ALONG WITH
NUDGING THE POP AND WX GRIDS TOWARD THE LATEST HRRR. THESE UPDATED
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 457 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A STACKED SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION HAS PRODUCED HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S THIS AFTERNOON...HELPING TO MELT A GOOD DEAL
OF THE RESIDUAL SNOWPACK FROM THIS PAST WEEKEND/S SYSTEM. WARMING
WILL CONTINUE FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING BEFORE LOW STRATUS MOVES IN
AND HALTS THE WARMUP. INCREASING MOISTURE THIS EVENING WILL RESULT
IN LOWERING CLOUD DECKS WITH RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH AND INTO THE BLUEGRASS REGION BY EARLY-MID EVENING.
PRECIPITATION GENERATION WILL BE AIDED BY A 35-45 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
SKIRTING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR HOW QUICKLY LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS DECOUPLE AND
SUBSEQUENTLY COOL THIS EVENING BEFORE THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OR TWO OF FREEZING RAIN ON ROAD
SURFACES AS RWIS DATA CURRENTLY SUGGEST ISOLATED PAVEMENT SURFACES
HOVERING AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PEAK LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64 AND ESPECIALLY NEARER THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY
AND TENNESSEE BORDER. DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW
IN NATURE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
SOUNDINGS APPEAR MOIST ENOUGH TO WARRANT CONTINUATION OF DRIZZLE FOR
A PERIOD BEFORE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE TROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT...THUS TRANSITIONING PRECIPITATION TO SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN ALONG WITH A FEW FLURRIES AS FURTHER COOLING
AND CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW TAKES PLACE. NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH
PRECIPITATION TO WORRY ABOUT ANY WINTRY TYPE ACCUMULATION FOR
NOW...BUT A FEW SLICK SPOTS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE ON ELEVATED
SURFACES AND ROADS FREE OF ANY RESIDUAL SALT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
A DEEP POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH...EXPANDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH TEXAS...WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
BEGINS DEEPENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE FIRST TROUGH
WILL PASS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AROUND
THE TIME THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME THE
PREDOMINATE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THIS SECONDARY TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT SHIFTS EAST...REACHING THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN EXITING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
GENERALLY INCREASING HEIGHTS SHOULD TAKE HOLD FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MORE ZONAL FLOW SETS IN FOR THE WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS ARE IN
SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THIS ZONAL FLOW...GENERALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
TO START THE DAY WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE HOLD AT THE
SURFACE DESPITE THE FIRST OF THE TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH. THE ONLY
IMPACT WE WILL LIKELY SEE FROM THIS IS CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND
DECREASING TEMPS...AS COOLER CANADIAN AIR GETS PULLED IN
ALOFT...WITH ONLY LOW TO MID 30S FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH MORE
SOUTHERLY WINDS TAKING HOLD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE
HIGH...AND TEMPERATURE BEGINNING A WARMING TREND ONCE MORE. THE
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE/TROUGH WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE
GREAT LAKE REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD
AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS. THIS WILL BRING POP POTENTIAL INTO THE CWA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...QPF REMAINS LOW...AND THERE IS AN OBVIOUS LACK OF
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO STICK WITH ONLY
SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS AND LIGHT QPF AT THIS TIME. THERE IS SOME
CONCERNS WITH PRECIP TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM...GIVEN THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE MOISTURE. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SNOW IN THE NORTH...HOWEVER IN
THE SOUTHWEST...LATEST GFS40 SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTING YET ANOTHER
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT. THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS FORECAST...AND GIVEN THAT IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT /DAY
4/...DECIDED TO PLAY THE SAFE ROUTE AND JUST MENTIONED RAIN AND
SNOW MIXTURE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH FOR AS WE NEAR ONSET.
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN KEEP WEATHER DRY
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE
REGION WILL BE IN RELATION TO THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS PRODUCED ALONG
THE ZONAL FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW...LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT 18Z SUNDAY...WILL HAVE A
STATIONARY FRONT WHICH WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST...PIVOTING ACROSS KY
SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH SOUTHERLY AIR WILL BE
PULLED IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE TO
CREATE DECENT WAA...AS WELL AS MOISTURE ADVECTION. THIS WILL LEAD
TO BOTH INCREASING TEMPS AND POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD SWATH OF PRECIP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. GIVEN THE WARM STATUS /HIGHS MAY
ACTUALLY REACH THE MID AND UPPER 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS/...STILL EXPECTING THIS ROUND OF PRECIP TO FALL IN THE
FORM OF RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 730 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING...
BEFORE LOWERING CEILINGS MATERIALIZE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD DEVELOP AT ALL SITES SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT LIKELY LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS -SHRA
OCCURS. HAVE INCLUDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL SITES THIS
EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. SFC WINDS WILL PICK UP BY MID MORNING TUESDAY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT NEAR 10 KTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN/GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1145 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1145 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
Updated aviation discussion for 06Z TAFs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 234 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
Above average confidence in the long term due to decent model
agreement.
High pressure at the surface and rising heights aloft should keep
the region dry through Sunday night. Precipitation chances make
their way back into the forecast starting Monday as a system lifting
northeast out of the central plains pulls a cold front across the
area. Per temperatures, critical thicknesses, etc precipitation
should be all liquid, and coverage not that extensive due to a
relative lack of deep moisture.
In the wake of the system, Monday evening rain chances will diminish
from west to east. Monday night after midnight as moisture becomes
more shallow, think there is a small chance for drizzle generally
over the eastern third of our CWA. In the last 2-3 hours of the
Monday night period, as temperatures drop below freezing, freezing
drizzle is a possibility over the northeast sections.
Temperatures will remain below normal through Sunday, then moderate
back to near normal through the end of the period.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 234 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
At this time, only two systems will be in and near the WFO PAH
forecast area during the extended period. The first system will be
departing the area on Tuesday. For now, kept a small PoP between 6
am and 9 am Tuesday morning. The Canadian and GFS deterministic
guidance was a little slower than the ECMWF with the exit of this
system over the area.
The second system is associated with the current trough off the west
coast. Although it will be progressive, this trough will likely
travel near the mean hemispheric wave speed of 15 knots across the
nation. Each of the deterministic and ensemble guidance have
slightly different evolutionary characteristics as the trough moves
east of the Rockies. A negatively tilted trough, a meridional
progressive trough, and a split flow sheared trough are some of the
solutions provided for late Thursday into Friday of next week with
this system. Given the low confidence in probability of these
various iterations of the trough will produce meaningful and
measurable precipitation, kept the extended forecast period dry. May
have to revisit precipitation chances by next Tuesday or Wednesday,
when the system moves east of the Rockies.
Blended a little higher temperatures from Southeast Missouri through
Southwest Illinois early in the forecast period to reflect that most
of the solar energy will not have to be used the previous near term
period to melt the snow and dry the soil.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1145 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
VFR conditions are expected through much of the period as high
pressure drifts south of the region. As this occurs, light southerly
winds will develop overnight and pick up to 5 to 10 knots on Sunday.
Decided to add a temporary visibility reduction by fog at both KEVV
and KOWB late tonight given latest trends over the snow pack to the
north and east of the area, where model guidance indicates the worst
of the fog should remain.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...RJP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1224 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Updated at 1100 PM EST Sat Jan 23 2016
Updated the forecast to add a larger area of patchy freezing fog and
include areas of freezing fog mainly over the deeper snowpack of
south central/east central KY. Evening model guidance has come in
more pessimistic with fog potential overnight including a large
portion of our area dropping to vsbys less than a half mile. This
makes sense with nearly clear skies and sfc high pressure moving
through to provide good rad cooling over fresh snowpack. With
everyone well below zero tonight, any fog will freeze. With some
getting below 10 degrees, freezing fog may tend be a mix of ice
crystals and super cooled water droplets. Either way, freezing fog
will cause more icy problems. Roadway treatments may not be as
effective in temps below 10 degrees F, so caution should be
exercised tonight into tomorrow morning if traveling. Will issue an
SPS to highlight potentially dense fog and ice deposition tonight
into tomorrow morning.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Jan 23 2016
...Near Zero Temps and Freezing Fog Possible Tonight...
Fairly tight northerly gradient in place today with a 1025mb surface
high over the Mississippi Valley, and vigorous low pressure making a
slow trek up the mid-Atlantic coast. Clouds have cleared out more
rapidly than expected today, with at least partial sunshine along
and west of a Bowling Green to Frankfort line. Expect the surface
ridge to settle in over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys tonight,
allowing our winds to diminish, and creating a favorable setup for
extreme radiational cooling.
Forecast mins tonight undercut MOS guidance by roughly 10F, and fall
more in line with the raw GFS temps. Even colder temps are expected
over the deepest snowpack, where we are forecasting lows well into
the single digits, and wouldn`t be surprised to see quite a few
locations below zero.
Hi-res models all show visibilities dropping to less than a half
mile overnight. Current dewpoints are in the mid to high teens, so
we should easily cross over those values this evening. Freezing fog
is a legitimate concern, and we have used temps dropping below 10F
as a proxy to draw in at least patchy freezing fog. Confidence is
limited by the potential for clouds to linger through the night, so
will not go with an advisory tonight. However, will highlight the
potential in the HWO, mostly due to concerns with ice deposition and
the ineffectiveness of road treatments at these temps.
Transitional day on Sunday with light southerly flow. Should see
lighter winds and plenty of sunshine to reflect off the fresh
snowpack. Temp forecast is on the low end of the coolest guidance,
but if anything that`s too warm given the snow cover. Clouds return
Sunday night so mins will not be as cold, but we will again undercut
guidance, especially over the snow cover.
.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Jan 23 2016
Milder temps early in the week as a progressive upper trof lifts NE
from the Plains into the Great Lakes, bringing our only real shot at
precipitation as the associated cold front pushes through the Ohio
Valley late Monday night. POPs will ramp up to chance west of I-65
Monday afternoon, with likely across the board Monday night.
Fortunately it`s a low-QPF event, and temps appear warm enough that
any measurable precipitation should be all rain. We do bottom out
close to freezing on Tuesday morning, and could see some light snow
showers late Monday night into Tuesday, mainly across southern
Indiana, and north of the Western Kentucky Parkway. However, no
accumulations are expected.
High pressure builds in from the west for the latter half of the
week. NW flow pattern will maintain seasonably chilly temps through
mid-week, but we should stay dry as most of the forcing remains well
to our north. Late-week warming trend expected as the pattern
flattens out, and temps push into the 50s for highs on Sat.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1220 AM EST Sun Jan 24 2016
HRRR and NARRE guidance continue to show the threat for freezing fog
early this morning, and we have seen steady drops in vsby at
SDF/LEX, with BWG dropping down to 1/2 mile in the last hour. Think
the latter will fluctuate some, though have kept them IFR through
daybreak. If the fog doesn`t form, a low stratus is possible, so
either way have a pessimistic forecast. Fog should dissipate after
sunrise tomorrow morning with generally VFR conditions expected for
the rest of the day under light southerly winds.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......RJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1224 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Updated at 1100 PM EST Sat Jan 23 2016
Updated the forecast to add a larger area of patchy freezing fog and
include areas of freezing fog mainly over the deeper snowpack of
south central/east central KY. Evening model guidance has come in
more pessimistic with fog potential overnight including a large
portion of our area dropping to vsbys less than a half mile. This
makes sense with nearly clear skies and sfc high pressure moving
through to provide good rad cooling over fresh snowpack. With
everyone well below zero tonight, any fog will freeze. With some
getting below 10 degrees, freezing fog may tend be a mix of ice
crystals and super cooled water droplets. Either way, freezing fog
will cause more icy problems. Roadway treatments may not be as
effective in temps below 10 degrees F, so caution should be
exercised tonight into tomorrow morning if traveling. Will issue an
SPS to highlight potentially dense fog and ice deposition tonight
into tomorrow morning.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Jan 23 2016
...Near Zero Temps and Freezing Fog Possible Tonight...
Fairly tight northerly gradient in place today with a 1025mb surface
high over the Mississippi Valley, and vigorous low pressure making a
slow trek up the mid-Atlantic coast. Clouds have cleared out more
rapidly than expected today, with at least partial sunshine along
and west of a Bowling Green to Frankfort line. Expect the surface
ridge to settle in over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys tonight,
allowing our winds to diminish, and creating a favorable setup for
extreme radiational cooling.
Forecast mins tonight undercut MOS guidance by roughly 10F, and fall
more in line with the raw GFS temps. Even colder temps are expected
over the deepest snowpack, where we are forecasting lows well into
the single digits, and wouldn`t be surprised to see quite a few
locations below zero.
Hi-res models all show visibilities dropping to less than a half
mile overnight. Current dewpoints are in the mid to high teens, so
we should easily cross over those values this evening. Freezing fog
is a legitimate concern, and we have used temps dropping below 10F
as a proxy to draw in at least patchy freezing fog. Confidence is
limited by the potential for clouds to linger through the night, so
will not go with an advisory tonight. However, will highlight the
potential in the HWO, mostly due to concerns with ice deposition and
the ineffectiveness of road treatments at these temps.
Transitional day on Sunday with light southerly flow. Should see
lighter winds and plenty of sunshine to reflect off the fresh
snowpack. Temp forecast is on the low end of the coolest guidance,
but if anything that`s too warm given the snow cover. Clouds return
Sunday night so mins will not be as cold, but we will again undercut
guidance, especially over the snow cover.
.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Jan 23 2016
Milder temps early in the week as a progressive upper trof lifts NE
from the Plains into the Great Lakes, bringing our only real shot at
precipitation as the associated cold front pushes through the Ohio
Valley late Monday night. POPs will ramp up to chance west of I-65
Monday afternoon, with likely across the board Monday night.
Fortunately it`s a low-QPF event, and temps appear warm enough that
any measurable precipitation should be all rain. We do bottom out
close to freezing on Tuesday morning, and could see some light snow
showers late Monday night into Tuesday, mainly across southern
Indiana, and north of the Western Kentucky Parkway. However, no
accumulations are expected.
High pressure builds in from the west for the latter half of the
week. NW flow pattern will maintain seasonably chilly temps through
mid-week, but we should stay dry as most of the forcing remains well
to our north. Late-week warming trend expected as the pattern
flattens out, and temps push into the 50s for highs on Sat.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1220 AM EST Sun Jan 24 2016
HRRR and NARRE guidance continue to show the threat for freezing fog
early this morning, and we have seen steady drops in vsby at
SDF/LEX, with BWG dropping down to 1/2 mile in the last hour. Think
the latter will fluctuate some, though have kept them IFR through
daybreak. If the fog doesn`t form, a low stratus is possible, so
either way have a pessimistic forecast. Fog should dissipate after
sunrise tomorrow morning with generally VFR conditions expected for
the rest of the day under light southerly winds.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......RJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1109 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
...Forecast Update...
Updated at 1100 PM EST Sat Jan 23 2016
Updated the forecast to add a larger area of patchy freezing fog and
include areas of freezing fog mainly over the deeper snowpack of
south central/east central KY. Evening model guidance has come in
more pessimistic with fog potential overnight including a large
portion of our area dropping to vsbys less than a half mile. This
makes sense with nearly clear skies and sfc high pressure moving
through to provide good rad cooling over fresh snowpack. With
everyone well below zero tonight, any fog will freeze. With some
getting below 10 degrees, freezing fog may tend be a mix of ice
crystals and super cooled water droplets. Either way, freezing fog
will cause more icy problems. Roadway treatments may not be as
effective in temps below 10 degrees F, so caution should be
exercised tonight into tomorrow morning if traveling. Will issue an
SPS to highlight potentially dense fog and ice deposition tonight
into tomorrow morning.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Jan 23 2016
...Near Zero Temps and Freezing Fog Possible Tonight...
Fairly tight northerly gradient in place today with a 1025mb surface
high over the Mississippi Valley, and vigorous low pressure making a
slow trek up the mid-Atlantic coast. Clouds have cleared out more
rapidly than expected today, with at least partial sunshine along
and west of a Bowling Green to Frankfort line. Expect the surface
ridge to settle in over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys tonight,
allowing our winds to diminish, and creating a favorable setup for
extreme radiational cooling.
Forecast mins tonight undercut MOS guidance by roughly 10F, and fall
more in line with the raw GFS temps. Even colder temps are expected
over the deepest snowpack, where we are forecasting lows well into
the single digits, and wouldn`t be surprised to see quite a few
locations below zero.
Hi-res models all show visibilities dropping to less than a half
mile overnight. Current dewpoints are in the mid to high teens, so
we should easily cross over those values this evening. Freezing fog
is a legitimate concern, and we have used temps dropping below 10F
as a proxy to draw in at least patchy freezing fog. Confidence is
limited by the potential for clouds to linger through the night, so
will not go with an advisory tonight. However, will highlight the
potential in the HWO, mostly due to concerns with ice deposition and
the ineffectiveness of road treatments at these temps.
Transitional day on Sunday with light southerly flow. Should see
lighter winds and plenty of sunshine to reflect off the fresh
snowpack. Temp forecast is on the low end of the coolest guidance,
but if anything that`s too warm given the snow cover. Clouds return
Sunday night so mins will not be as cold, but we will again undercut
guidance, especially over the snow cover.
.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Jan 23 2016
Milder temps early in the week as a progressive upper trof lifts NE
from the Plains into the Great Lakes, bringing our only real shot at
precipitation as the associated cold front pushes through the Ohio
Valley late Monday night. POPs will ramp up to chance west of I-65
Monday afternoon, with likely across the board Monday night.
Fortunately it`s a low-QPF event, and temps appear warm enough that
any measurable precipitation should be all rain. We do bottom out
close to freezing on Tuesday morning, and could see some light snow
showers late Monday night into Tuesday, mainly across southern
Indiana, and north of the Western Kentucky Parkway. However, no
accumulations are expected.
High pressure builds in from the west for the latter half of the
week. NW flow pattern will maintain seasonably chilly temps through
mid-week, but we should stay dry as most of the forcing remains well
to our north. Late-week warming trend expected as the pattern
flattens out, and temps push into the 50s for highs on Sat.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 625 PM EST Sat Jan 23 2016
Becoming increasingly concerned for dense freezing fog tonight as
our skies have mostly cleared already and sfc high pressure is
moving in over a fresh, deep snowpack. 18Z NAM, 12Z WRF NMM, and
latest HRRR both show a good dense fog signal over the area of
deepest snowpack which includes BWG/LEX terminals and to a lesser
extent SDF. Therefore went ahead and followed this latest guidance
which begins MVFR fog development this evening between 3-5Z. IFR
fog should following by 7-9Z. All three terminals have the
potential to go VLIFR in dense fog tonight but will trend TAFs
downward for now and make updates as confidence increases in fog
development this evening. Fog should dissipate after sunrise
tomorrow morning with VFR conditions expected for the rest of the
day under light southerly winds.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
928 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG A LINE FROM STRONG ARKANSAS TO ARCADIA
AND MANSFIELD LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST INTO LUFKIN TEXAS. CONVECTION
HAS BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG THE COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. HRRR MODEL
SUGGESTS CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS DEEP
EAST TEXAS AND INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. FOR THIS UPDATE...WENT
AHEAD AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 44 54 34 51 / 30 10 10 0
MLU 46 49 36 48 / 70 60 20 10
DEQ 33 51 25 51 / 10 0 0 0
TXK 38 52 31 49 / 10 10 0 0
ELD 42 51 31 48 / 30 20 10 0
TYR 40 53 33 52 / 10 10 10 0
GGG 41 54 34 52 / 20 10 10 0
LFK 47 55 37 55 / 60 30 30 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
931 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. PERIODIC SNOW SHOWER CHANCES AND SEASONALLY
COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING LGT RAIN CHCS TONIGHT. 00Z PIT SOUNDING IS VRY DRY...AND
THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND UPR SUPPORT SHOULD HELP LMT PCPN. AFTER
THE INITIAL DROP IN TEMPS THIS EVE...WARM ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN A SLOW INCREASE OVERNIGHT. IN COLDER AREAS NE-SE OF PIT A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VRY LGT FREEZING RAIN IS PSBL AT PCPN ONSET. MAINTAINED
MENTION IN THE HWO...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND UPR SUPPORT
CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE IS LOW.
THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO COMPLETE ITS PASSAGE TUE. MOST OF THE
LIMITED PCPN IS EXPD TO BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MINIMAL SNOW
SHOWER CHCS AFTER FROPA TUE AFTN. TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING
TWEAKED NEAR TERM HRRR AND BLENDED GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES AND RIDGES ON WEDNESDAY.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT DUE TO LIMITED
MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING.
BUILDING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD SHUN AWAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW AVERAGE AND WERE CALCULATED
BASED ON A SUPER BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL RAISE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY...AFTER WHICH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL OVER
THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE HEADING TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM SLOW RISE IN FEW POINTS WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.
EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER 06Z. WITH WEAK FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL JET OFF THE DECK...HAVE CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVER
40 KTS JUST ABOVE WEAK INVERSION NEAR 1500 FT. EXPECT MVFR CIGS
TO REMAIN BEHIND FROPA TUESDAY.
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
653 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR TROFFING OVER
CENTRAL NAMERICA BTWN RIDGES ALONG THE W COAST AND OVER THE E. THERE
ARE TWO SHRTWVS OF INTEREST EMBEDDED IN THE SEPARATE NRN AND SRN
BRANCHES MAKING UP THIS TROF. AN AXIS OF SOME DEEPER MSTR AHEAD OF
THE NRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE DID BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SN TO THE
W...BUT INFLUX OF MID LVL DRY AIR ARND H7 AS SHOWN ON THE 12Z MPX
AND GRB RAOBS IS RESTRICTING THE LINGERING PCPN TO OVER WRN LK SUP.
MOIST LLVLS BLO THIS MID LVL DRY AIR AS DEPICTED ON THE 12Z GRB AND
APX RAOBS HAS RESULTED IN SOME FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DZ MAINLY
OVER THE CENTRAL CWA...AS DGZ IS WELL ABOVE THE SHALLOW MSTR WHERE
ICE CRYSTALS ARE ABSENT. LOOKING TO THE SW...A STRONGER NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHRTWV THAT CAUSED 12HR H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 100M IS MOVING
NEWD THRU MISSOURI TOWARD THE UPR MIDWEST.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON LINGERING FREEZING DZ
AND THEN ON ARRIVAL OF HIER POPS TNGT/NEED FOR ADDITIONAL HEADLINES
AS SRN BRANCH SHRTWV LIFTS INTO THE WRN LKS.
TNGT...SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD IS FCST TO REACH SCENTRAL LK MI ARND 06Z
TUE BEFORE MOVING TOWARD SE ONTARIO BY 12Z...WITHOUT PHASING WITH
THE NRN BRANCH SHRTWV FCST TO DIG INTO THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY. WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MSTR...EXPECT LINGERING FREEZING DZ TO
TRANSITION TO MAINLY SN DURING THE EVNG. BAND OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC/UPR DVGC/FAIRLY SLOPED BAND OF FGEN ON THE CYC SIDE OF THE
SHRTWV TRACK IS FCST TO IMPACT MAINLY THE SE HALF OF THE CWA. PERIOD
OF SHARPER DYNAMIC FORCING IS FCST TO LAST ABOUT 6 HRS. CONSIDERING
3G/KG SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FCST IN THE H7-75 LYR OVER THE FAR
SCENTRAL...SUSPECT SN ACCUMS WL REACH 3-4 INCHES OVER THE FAR SE CWA
WITH POOR SN/WATER RATIOS ASSOCIATED WITH HI/RATHER NARROW DGZ.
ALTHOUGH THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE IS
PROGGED TO MISS THE WRN ZNS...THE ARPCH OF THE NRN BRANCH SHRTWV/
ACCOMPANYING DYNAMIC FORCING LATE IN TANDEM WITH SHARPENING CYC NW
FLOW/DEEPENING MSTR AND H85 TEMPS FALLING TO ARND -11C...EXPECT
INCRSG POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE IN THAT AREA OVERNGT. AS FOR
HEADLINES...OPTED TO HOLD ON TO THE ADVY ISSUED BY THE NGT SHIFT FOR
MENOMINEE COUNTY...WHERE UP TO 4 INCHES STILL APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE
SRN HALF OF THE COUNTY PER EXPECTED DYNAMICS/MSTR AS DISCUSSED
ABOVE. TRANSIENT NATURE OF FORCING/GREATER MSTR REMAINING TO THE S
AND LACK OF PHASING BTWN SHRTWVS DOES NOT JUSTIFY EXTENDING
HEADLINES TO THE REST OF THE CWA. OPTED TO ISSUE AN SPS TO DISCUSS
THE FREEZING DRIZZLE/TRANSITION TO SN THIS EVNG WITH UP TO 3 INCHES
OVER MOST OF THE CWA DURING THE NGT.
TUE...NRN BRANCH SHRTWV IS FCST TO SLIDE INTO LOWER MI LATE IN THE
DAY. A PERIOD OF LK ENHANCED SN UNDER ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC/HIER RH AS WELL AS UPSLOPE/CYC NNW FLOW WL BE THE RULE NEAR LK
SUP AS H85 TEMPS FALL TOWARD -15C. BUT OVER THE SCENTRAL/SE CWA...
PRESENCE OF DOWNSLOPE NW WIND COMPONENT WL TEND TO OFFSET THIS
DYANMIC SUPPORT...RESULTING IN NO HIER THAN CHC POPS. FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHRTWV TO THE E IN THE AFTN...EXPECT THE COVERAGE/
INTENSITY OF THE SN SHOWERS TO DIMINISH EVEN NEAR THE LK OVER THE W
HALF WITH ARRIVAL OF MID LVL DRYING THAT WL BRING A TRANSITION TO
PURE LES. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS ON TUE WL BE UP TO ABOUT 3 INCHES.
INCLUDED MENTION OF THIS SUB ADVY LES IN THE SPS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF SNOW
WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
BROUGHT THE SYSTEM SNOW OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS WILL BE POSITIONED
OVER NORTHEASTERN QUEBEC WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTH AND WESTWARD
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. ALOFT...THE UPPER LEVEL
500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE U.P. NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE EVENING...LINGERING LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO BE AROUND -16C
WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. INVERSION
HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 6KFT OVER THE AREA AS THE AXIS
SLIDES THROUGH WHICH WILL KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
FALLING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT...WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST ALLOWING THE LAKE EFFECT
POTENTIAL TO SHIFT TO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND FAR EASTERN U.P.
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD AS A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY. ALOFT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AND SLIGHT RIDGING WILL SLIDE INTO THE U.P. DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE 850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -
6C...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND EVEN DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY BRING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED 500MB SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN MN WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE U.P. TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS/EC KEEP THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE CWA
MAINLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WHILE THE GEM/NAM HAVE THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION A BIT FARTHER SOUTH SLIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.P. EITHER WAY THE SYSTEM SNOW SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUICK AND
GENERALLY LIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF PROGGED TO BE AROUND 0.15
INCHES. SNOWFALL RATIOS SHOULD NOT BE THAT IMPRESSIVE EITHER AS THE
MOIST LAYER IN THE DGZ IS ELEVATED BETWEEN ABOUT 650MB AND 550MB
WITH FAIRLY GUSTY WINDS BELOW THAT LAYER...EFFECTIVELY HELPING TO
SHRED THE LARGER DENDRITES. THIS WOULD GIVE SNOW RATIOS AROUND 12 TO
15 ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...KEEPING THE SYSTEM SNOW TOTALS BETWEEN
1 TO 3 INCHES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION...SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE SQUEEZING EFFECT BETWEEN THE
KEWEENAW...ISLE ROYALE AND THE ARROWHEAD OF MN WILL INCREASE THE
GALE POTENTIAL IN THOSE AREAS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW
ALONG THE SHORELINES AS WELL. THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER HEAD AND 850MB TEMPERATURES
FALL TO NEAR -10 TO -11C...MAINLY FOR NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. THIS COULD GIVE THOSE AREAS AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. THE LOW AND TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A BIT DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN AND THE
INVERSION HEIGHT WILL BECOME VERY SHALLOW.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BECOME VERY LIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED...
INTERMITTENT CHANCE OF SNOW WILL DOMINATE THIS TIME PERIOD. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES IN A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
ON FRIDAY AND THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY LOW AT
THIS POINT...SO WILL STICK WITH A CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS TO AT
LEAST SHOW THE INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF SNOW FOR THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
AS LOW PRES MOVES NE ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...ANY
ONGOING -FZDZ AT KCMX/KSAW WILL SWITCH OVER TO SNOW AS WIDESPREAD
-SN LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. ALONG WITH THE -SN...IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR TUE AFTN AT ALL TERMINALS...BUT LIFR
CONDITIONS MAY LINGER LONGEST TUE MORNING AT KIWD DUE TO FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY NORTH WINDS
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS
WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS LESS THAN 25 KNOTS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY A
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FROM
CANADA...BRINGING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE SHIFTING NORTH TO 30 KNOTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING
WINDS LESS THAN 25 KNOTS FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MIZ012.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
124 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 120 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2016
EVEN THE FLURRIES ON RADAR LOOK PRETTY LIGHT. SO FAR, THE RADAR IS
INDICATING VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION, BUT NOTHING SEEMS TO BE
FALLING OUT OF THE SKY. SO WILL REMOVE THE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON
AS THE 850 MB RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE LAKE POTENTIAL IS NEAR
ZERO WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -5C TO -6C. THE CLOSEST
AREA WITH -10C OR COOLER IS OVER N LAKE HURON AND THE WINDS ARE
BLOWING TOWARD CANADA, SO WE LOOK TO BE DONE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1001 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016
LAST FEW SCANS OF KAPX HAS SHOWN THE BUILDING OF SOME SW LES BANDS
TRYING TO FORM. SO FAR, THEY HAVE YIELDED LITTLE TO NOTHING AS OF
YET. TRIED TO TIME THE LAST OF THE SYSTEM SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT IN NE LOWER, AND THEN LET THE LES BUILD OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. NOT SURE HOW LONG THE INSTABILITY WILL LAST AS THE WATER
TEMPERATURES AROUND 3C, AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -10C WILL
WARM TO -5C BY 00Z OVER N LAKE MICHIGAN. THINK THAT EVEN THE LESS
THAN HALF INCH AMOUNTS ARE PUSHING IT FOR MOST OF THE AREA
OUTLINED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016
JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LIKELY SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE
EFFECT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY ABOUT MID MORNING...MAINLY
ACROSS EMMETT COUNTY AS WELL AS IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF MACKINAC
AND CHIPPEWA COUNTIES. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A FEW HOUR
WINDOW WHEN OVER LAKE INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT AND BEFORE
WINDS AND MOISTURE DROP OFF LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER...NONE EXPECTED.
..A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...
ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP OF INTEREST...1008 MB LOW PRESSURE
WAS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED
A VIGOROUS LOOKING SHORT WAVE STRETCHING ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE WESTERN PENINSULA. APX RADAR SHOWED A
SMATTERING OF LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN (MOST OF WHICH
WERE LIKELY NOT REACHING THE GROUND). THE MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST
CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS TODAY.
TODAY...CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE/ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A BIT OF LIFT
WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO MOISTEN UP THE COLUMN JUST ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH AROUND NOONTIME WITH SOME LINGERING FLURRIES
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ACTUALLY PAINT A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER (BUT ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE UNDER AN INCH). THERE REMAINS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE FOR A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE (ESPECIALLY SOUTH) BUT
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE
FORECAST (AS MOISTURE SHOULD EXTEND TO THE CRUCIAL
-10 C ISOTHERM). IT WILL RETURN TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AFTER
THE WELCOMED SUNSHINE SOME SPOTS SAW YESTERDAY. HIGHS IN THE FAIRLY
MILD UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.
TONIGHT...NOT A WHOLE LOT GOING ON WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HANGING AROUND IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM DUE IN LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. SO CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME TAKES ON A
DECIDEDLY MORE ZONAL FLAVOR OVER THE COMING DAYS. A SERIES OF MOSTLY
MOISTURE STARVED WAVES WILL BE EMBEDDED IN THIS REGIME...WITH ONE OF
MOST IMPORTANCE CURRENTLY SEEN PINWHEELING INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL RACE NORTHEAST INTO AND THROUGH OUR AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING A ROUND OF ACCUMULATING LIGHT
SNOW ALONG WITH IT. BRIEF TAP OF POST SYSTEM COLDER AIR WILL ONCE
AGAIN DRUM UP SOME LAKE RESPONSE...ADDING AT LEAST SOME TO THE SNOW
TOTALS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: SNOW EVOLUTION AND AMOUNTS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
DETAILS: QUIET START TO MONDAY GIVES WAY TO INCREASING EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT SNOW CHANCES AS THAT EARLIER MENTIONED WAVE RACES THROUGH
THE REGION. NOT AN OVERLY ROBUST SYSTEM...WITH WAVE ITSELF DAMPENING
ON ITS PASSAGE. MOISTURE NOT ENTIRELY IMPRESSIVE EITHER...WITH A
DISTINCT LACKING OF ANY SUSTAINED TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION (PWAT
VALUES DO SPIKE TO JUST OVER HALF AN INCH...WHICH IS ABOVE ONE
STANDARD DEVIATION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS WILL
BE LIMITED GIVEN AOA 10KFT DGZ LEVEL AND ELONGATE DEPTH OF JUST
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE COLUMN...WITH EVEN SOME
POSSIBILITY OF AN INITIAL RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH FOR THE
EVENING. WITH ALL THAT SAID...NOTED HINTS IN GUIDANCE OF A NARROW
BUT FAIRLY VIGOROUS LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS RIDING UP ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...PERHAPS ENTICING SOME BETTER PRECIP
INTENSITY. ALL TOLD...LOOKING AT A 1 TO 3 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATION
TYPE EVENT...WITH CURRENT GUIDANCE PROGS SUPPORTING THE HIGHER END
OF THIS RANGE CUTTING ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN INTO EASTERN UPPER.
SNOWS BECOME MORE OF THE LAKE EFFECT VARIETY HEADING INTO TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS CORE OF TROUGHING PIVOTS OVERHEAD AND H8 TEMPS
SLOWLY FALL INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN LARGELY
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...TARGETING THE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS OF BOTH
PENINSULAS. SOUNDINGS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...WITH STEADY LOSS OF
MID LEVEL SYNOPTIC MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION AND SUB 7KFT INVERSION
LEVELS. LAKE INDUCED CONVECTIVE DEPTH DOES FALL WITHIN DGZ...HELPING
WITH THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. THINKING ANOTHER FEW INCHES IS
EASILY ATTAINABLE IN THE LAKE BELTS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH MONDAY NIGHTS SNOW...MAY BE ENOUGH
TO EVENTUALLY TIP THE SCALE TO A LONG DURATION ADVISORY. SO...HWO
WORTHY IT WILL REMAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
START OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE RAPIDLY BACKING WINDS AND NEXT SURGE OF
WAA CUTS OF THE LAKE PROCESSES. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TRACK OF NEXT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE...WITH ECMWF PROGS
REMAINING STEADFAST IN THEIR QUICKER (WEDNESDAY NIGHT) SOUTHERN
CANADA SOLUTIONS...WHILE OTHER MID RANGE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS PASS
MAIN PORTION OF WAVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY. EITHER OUTCOME
DOES BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW...ALTHOUGH THE
MORE NORTHERN IDEA KEEPS MOST ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN.
NO MATTER WHAT THE OUTCOME FOR THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...NICE SURGE OF
PACIFIC DOMINATED AIR LOOKS TO FOLLOW IT HEADING INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE FREEZING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NORTHWARD RETREATING THERMAL GRADIENT SUGGESTS
NEXT WAVE IN THE LOT WILL MAINLY PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2016
THERE`S A LITTLE BIT OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD LEFT OVER IN NE
LOWER, SO APN HAS MVFR CIGS AROUND 2500FT AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT
SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED BY THE INVERSION.
THE INVERSION WILL TRAP MOISTURE BELOW IT AS WELL AT PLN, TVC AND
MBL, AND THE CIGS WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER (ROUGHLY 1500 FEET), BUT
STILL IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A TIME FOR SOME
IFR, BUT AT THIS POINT THE WAY THE MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOK, NO TIME
HAS A MUCH HIGHER PROBABILITY THAN ANY OTHER.
OTHERWISE, THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, IT LOOKS LIKE VFR VSBYS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE ZONES INTO THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WIND REGIME
TONIGHT WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY TUESDAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
WHEN SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JSL
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...JSL
MARINE...SULLIVAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
556 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
.SHORT TERM: (Through Tuesday)
Issued at 242 PM CST Mon Jan 25 2016
Strong little shortwave with a 34 vortmax on the RAP is currently
moving through eastern Missouri. The center of the associated
surface low looks to be near or right over KFFL (Fairfield IA), and
the cold front will be pushing into our central Missouri counties
shortly. Little if any precip reaching the ground at this time in
our CWFA, and the precip threat should end entirely after FROPA.
There`s still a decent likelihood of some light rain up across our
far northern zones...and a chance there could be some light showers
late this afternoon into the evening until the front moves through.
Should see good cold advection behind the front, but the low is
moving northeast and the wind never really veers beyond about 290-
300 degrees, so this won`t be an Arctic outbreak or anything. Should
see temperatures drop quickly into the 30s behind the
front...bottoming out Tuesday morning in the upper 20s to around 30.
Think there will be plenty of stratus/strato-cu lingering over the
area on Tuesday, and with west-northwest flow continuing I don`t
expect temperatures to make it out of the 30s except over far
southern zones where breaks in the overcast are likely.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday night through Next Monday)
Issued at 242 PM CST Mon Jan 25 2016
As surface ridge builds into the region Tuesday night, upper
level shortwave to slide through. No precipitation expected with
this system, but clouds associated with it will begin to scatter
out towards daybreak Wednesday morning. Otherwise, colder air to
filter in with lows near normal in the upper teens to mid 20s.
Then on Wednesday, surface ridge moves off to our east allowing
southerly winds to return to the region. Highs will be near normal
in the mid 30s to low 40s, then begin a gradual warmup for the rest
of the work week and into the weekend as upper level ridging becomes
more zonal. Will see another system slide through on Thursday, but
it will be moisture starved as well with only an increase in mid and
high clouds. By Saturday, highs will be in the low 50s to low 60s
and lows Saturday night in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
Extended models continue to show system developing over the
panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas beginning Saturday night, though
there are some timing and strength differences among them. Warm
frontal boundary associated with it to lift into southern portions
of forecast area by Sunday with increasing chances of precipitation
Sunday night and Monday. At this time, precipitation to remain in
the form of rain as temperatures stay above normal through the
period.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 459 PM CST Mon Jan 25 2016
Surface low was jsut northeast of UIN with a trailing cold front
extending southwest between COU and STL early this evening. Cold
front will move southeastward through the St Louis metro area
early this evening with the surface wind veering around to a wly
direction after fropa and becoming strong and gusty. MVFR cigs
will continue in UIN and COU tonight and Tuesday, and lower into
the MVFR catagory in STL and SUS early this evening.
Specifics for KSTL: The cloud ceiling will lower to around
2000 feet this evening with the sly surface veering around to a
wly direction after fropa and becoming strong and gusty. The
surface wind will weaken late Tuesday afternoon and evening as a
surface high moves into western MO with the cloud ceiling
possibly rising into the VFR catagory.
GKS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 30 38 25 38 / 30 5 5 0
Quincy 27 33 20 35 / 30 5 0 0
Columbia 28 35 21 39 / 10 5 5 0
Jefferson City 30 37 21 39 / 10 5 5 0
Salem 32 37 24 35 / 30 5 5 0
Farmington 30 39 22 38 / 30 5 5 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
220 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
A CHECK OF THE VISIBILITY PRODUCTS OFFERED BY THE NAM...RAP AND
SREF SHOW ROBUST LOW LEVEL SATURATION AND DRY AIR ALOFT EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 TONIGHT LEADING TO THE FORMATION OF FOG. AREAS OF FOG
HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 439 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN CORRECTED FOR A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
TONIGHT. THE NAM SHOWS SUPER COOLED WATER AND WEAK LIFT BELOW
H850MB FOR SEVERAL HOURS STARTING AROUND 03Z. THE MIDLEVELS BEGIN
TO SATURATE FROM 06Z ONWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...09Z ACROSS
NCNTL NEB.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN. THE BEST
GUESS ON HIGHS PRODUCES 30S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH. THE RAP WAS
THE WARMEST MODEL WITH 50S SOUTH BUT THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S.
LIGHT SNOW APPEARS LIKELY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NAM MODEL
WHICH SHOWS MOISTURE POOLING TO NEAR 0.50 INCHES. DEEP BUT GENTLE
LIFT TO 500MB BEHIND AN H700MB LOW TRACKING THROUGH CNTL NEB
SUGGESTS A BANDED SNOW STRUCTURE. THE FORECAST IS FOR 1 TO NEARLY
2 INCHES ACROSS ERN SHERIDAN AND WRN CHERRY COUNTIES. THE NAM
HOWEVER SHOWS 4 TO 6 INCHES IN THIS AREA USING ITS SNOW RATIO OF
13 TO 1 AND HEAVIER QPF.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE H700MB LOW TRACKING ALONG I-80 AND
THE SREF WAS MUCH DRIER THAN THE NAM WITH ABOUT HALF THE QPF AS
WERE THE ARW...NMM...GFS AND ECM MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT WILL MIND LATER FORECASTS OF THE
NAM AND RAP MODELS.
LATER FORECASTS USING THE RAP MODEL MIGHT INDICATE CONDITIONS
NECESSITATING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH NOON
MONDAY ACROSS NRN NEB. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE MID 20S WITH
COMPLETE OVERCAST AND H850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -5C TO -10C.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
MONDAY COMMUTE COULD BE TRICKY AS SNOW CONTINUES WITH MANY
LOCATIONS SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING...AND MOST AREAS TO
ALREADY HAVE ACCUMULATED AT LEAST A LITTLE SNOW. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON THE SNOW WILL LINGER ACROSS N CENTRAL. WILL ALSO SEE
WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME MONDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
ONLY AN INCH OR TWO FOR THE MOST PART...SO NOT TO WORRIED ABOUT
BLOWING SNOW. ALSO WILL SEE TEMPS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK FOR
THE AFTERNOON WHERE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED...SW NEB.
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS FROM REALLY DROPPING BY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE WITH A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE...HOWEVER IF SKIES DO GO CLEAR EARLY THE
COOLER MAV GUIDANCE WOULD BE FAVORED.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AS RIDGE TO THE WEST
AMPLIFIES. THE GFS AND NAM TRACK A SUBTLE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WED NIGHT...HOWEVER LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND MODELS ARE DRY. THE EC/CANADIAN KEEP
THE WAVE TO THE NORTH. FORECAST ACKNOWLEDGES THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
INCREASE OF CLOUDS...HOWEVER WILL KEEP THINGS DRY.
RIDGE EXPANDS TO END THE WEEK. 850 MB TEMPS ON THE INCREASE AND
TEMPS SHOULD PUSH WELL INTO THE 40S AND SOME AREAS INTO THE 50S
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND WILL NEED TO WATCH AS THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING
STILL IN QUESTION AND GENERALLY CONSENSUS IS JUST PAST THE
CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD...BUT LOOKS TO BRING MORE SEASONAL TEMPS
AND POSSIBLY SOME PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR
AND LOCAL IFR. FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE MID EVENING
ONWARD..WITH SNOW DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...TAYLOR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
530 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
A CHECK OF THE VISIBILITY PRODUCTS OFFERED BY THE NAM...RAP AND
SREF SHOW ROBUST LOW LEVEL SATURATION AND DRY AIR ALOFT EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 TONIGHT LEADING TO THE FORMATION OF FOG. AREAS OF FOG
HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 439 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN CORRECTED FOR A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
TONIGHT. THE NAM SHOWS SUPER COOLED WATER AND WEAK LIFT BELOW
H850MB FOR SEVERAL HOURS STARTING AROUND 03Z. THE MIDLEVELS BEGIN
TO SATURATE FROM 06Z ONWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...09Z ACROSS
NCNTL NEB.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN. THE BEST
GUESS ON HIGHS PRODUCES 30S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH. THE RAP WAS
THE WARMEST MODEL WITH 50S SOUTH BUT THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S.
LIGHT SNOW APPEARS LIKELY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NAM MODEL
WHICH SHOWS MOISTURE POOLING TO NEAR 0.50 INCHES. DEEP BUT GENTLE
LIFT TO 500MB BEHIND AN H700MB LOW TRACKING THROUGH CNTL NEB
SUGGESTS A BANDED SNOW STRUCTURE. THE FORECAST IS FOR 1 TO NEARLY
2 INCHES ACROSS ERN SHERIDAN AND WRN CHERRY COUNTIES. THE NAM
HOWEVER SHOWS 4 TO 6 INCHES IN THIS AREA USING ITS SNOW RATIO OF
13 TO 1 AND HEAVIER QPF.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE H700MB LOW TRACKING ALONG I-80 AND
THE SREF WAS MUCH DRIER THAN THE NAM WITH ABOUT HALF THE QPF AS
WERE THE ARW...NMM...GFS AND ECM MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT WILL MIND LATER FORECASTS OF THE
NAM AND RAP MODELS.
LATER FORECASTS USING THE RAP MODEL MIGHT INDICATE CONDITIONS
NECESSITATING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH NOON
MONDAY ACROSS NRN NEB. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE MID 20S WITH
COMPLETE OVERCAST AND H850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -5C TO -10C.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
MONDAY COMMUTE COULD BE TRICKY AS SNOW CONTINUES WITH MANY
LOCATIONS SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING...AND MOST AREAS TO
ALREADY HAVE ACCUMULATED AT LEAST A LITTLE SNOW. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON THE SNOW WILL LINGER ACROSS N CENTRAL. WILL ALSO SEE
WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME MONDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
ONLY AN INCH OR TWO FOR THE MOST PART...SO NOT TO WORRIED ABOUT
BLOWING SNOW. ALSO WILL SEE TEMPS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK FOR
THE AFTERNOON WHERE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED...SW NEB.
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS FROM REALLY DROPPING BY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE WITH A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE...HOWEVER IF SKIES DO GO CLEAR EARLY THE
COOLER MAV GUIDANCE WOULD BE FAVORED.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AS RIDGE TO THE WEST
AMPLIFIES. THE GFS AND NAM TRACK A SUBTLE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WED NIGHT...HOWEVER LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND MODELS ARE DRY. THE EC/CANADIAN KEEP
THE WAVE TO THE NORTH. FORECAST ACKNOWLEDGES THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
INCREASE OF CLOUDS...HOWEVER WILL KEEP THINGS DRY.
RIDGE EXPANDS TO END THE WEEK. 850 MB TEMPS ON THE INCREASE AND
TEMPS SHOULD PUSH WELL INTO THE 40S AND SOME AREAS INTO THE 50S
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND WILL NEED TO WATCH AS THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING
STILL IN QUESTION AND GENERALLY CONSENSUS IS JUST PAST THE
CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD...BUT LOOKS TO BRING MORE SEASONAL TEMPS
AND POSSIBLY SOME PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 513 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
ALL MODELS INCLUDING THE SREF INDICATE IFR/LIFR CIGS/FOG
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. THE AREA OF CONCERN IS ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA ALSO.
BY 09Z TONIGHT...SNOW/IFR SHOULD BE UNDERWAY AND STRONG NORTH
WINDS/DRIER AIR WILL ERODE THE FOG.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
513 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 439 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN CORRECTED FOR A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
TONIGHT. THE NAM SHOWS SUPER COOLED WATER AND WEAK LIFT BELOW
H850MB FOR SEVERAL HOURS STARTING AROUND 03Z. THE MIDLEVELS BEGIN
TO SATURATE FROM 06Z ONWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...09Z ACROSS
NCNTL NEB.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN. THE BEST
GUESS ON HIGHS PRODUCES 30S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH. THE RAP WAS
THE WARMEST MODEL WITH 50S SOUTH BUT THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S.
LIGHT SNOW APPEARS LIKELY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NAM MODEL
WHICH SHOWS MOISTURE POOLING TO NEAR 0.50 INCHES. DEEP BUT GENTLE
LIFT TO 500MB BEHIND AN H700MB LOW TRACKING THROUGH CNTL NEB
SUGGESTS A BANDED SNOW STRUCTURE. THE FORECAST IS FOR 1 TO NEARLY
2 INCHES ACROSS ERN SHERIDAN AND WRN CHERRY COUNTIES. THE NAM
HOWEVER SHOWS 4 TO 6 INCHES IN THIS AREA USING ITS SNOW RATIO OF
13 TO 1 AND HEAVIER QPF.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE H700MB LOW TRACKING ALONG I-80 AND
THE SREF WAS MUCH DRIER THAN THE NAM WITH ABOUT HALF THE QPF AS
WERE THE ARW...NMM...GFS AND ECM MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT WILL MIND LATER FORECASTS OF THE
NAM AND RAP MODELS.
LATER FORECASTS USING THE RAP MODEL MIGHT INDICATE CONDITIONS
NECESSITATING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH NOON
MONDAY ACROSS NRN NEB. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE MID 20S WITH
COMPLETE OVERCAST AND H850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -5C TO -10C.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
MONDAY COMMUTE COULD BE TRICKY AS SNOW CONTINUES WITH MANY
LOCATIONS SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING...AND MOST AREAS TO
ALREADY HAVE ACCUMULATED AT LEAST A LITTLE SNOW. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON THE SNOW WILL LINGER ACROSS N CENTRAL. WILL ALSO SEE
WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME MONDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
ONLY AN INCH OR TWO FOR THE MOST PART...SO NOT TO WORRIED ABOUT
BLOWING SNOW. ALSO WILL SEE TEMPS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK FOR
THE AFTERNOON WHERE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED...SW NEB.
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS FROM REALLY DROPPING BY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE WITH A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE...HOWEVER IF SKIES DO GO CLEAR EARLY THE
COOLER MAV GUIDANCE WOULD BE FAVORED.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AS RIDGE TO THE WEST
AMPLIFIES. THE GFS AND NAM TRACK A SUBTLE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WED NIGHT...HOWEVER LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND MODELS ARE DRY. THE EC/CANADIAN KEEP
THE WAVE TO THE NORTH. FORECAST ACKNOWLEDGES THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
INCREASE OF CLOUDS...HOWEVER WILL KEEP THINGS DRY.
RIDGE EXPANDS TO END THE WEEK. 850 MB TEMPS ON THE INCREASE AND
TEMPS SHOULD PUSH WELL INTO THE 40S AND SOME AREAS INTO THE 50S
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND WILL NEED TO WATCH AS THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING
STILL IN QUESTION AND GENERALLY CONSENSUS IS JUST PAST THE
CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD...BUT LOOKS TO BRING MORE SEASONAL TEMPS
AND POSSIBLY SOME PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 513 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
ALL MODELS INCLUDING THE SREF INDICATE IFR/LIFR CIGS/FOG
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. THE AREA OF CONCERN IS ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA ALSO.
BY 09Z TONIGHT...SNOW/IFR SHOULD BE UNDERWAY AND STRONG NORTH
WINDS/DRIER AIR WILL ERODE THE FOG.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
443 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 439 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN CORRECTED FOR A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
TONIGHT. THE NAM SHOWS SUPER COOLED WATER AND WEAK LIFT BELOW
H850MB FOR SEVERAL HOURS STARTING AROUND 03Z. THE MIDLEVELS BEGIN
TO SATURATE FROM 06Z ONWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...09Z ACROSS
NCNTL NEB.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN. THE BEST
GUESS ON HIGHS PRODUCES 30S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH. THE RAP WAS
THE WARMEST MODEL WITH 50S SOUTH BUT THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S.
LIGHT SNOW APPEARS LIKELY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NAM MODEL
WHICH SHOWS MOISTURE POOLING TO NEAR 0.50 INCHES. DEEP BUT GENTLE
LIFT TO 500MB BEHIND AN H700MB LOW TRACKING THROUGH CNTL NEB
SUGGESTS A BANDED SNOW STRUCTURE. THE FORECAST IS FOR 1 TO NEARLY
2 INCHES ACROSS ERN SHERIDAN AND WRN CHERRY COUNTIES. THE NAM
HOWEVER SHOWS 4 TO 6 INCHES IN THIS AREA USING ITS SNOW RATIO OF
13 TO 1 AND HEAVIER QPF.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE H700MB LOW TRACKING ALONG I-80 AND
THE SREF WAS MUCH DRIER THAN THE NAM WITH ABOUT HALF THE QPF AS
WERE THE ARW...NMM...GFS AND ECM MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT WILL MIND LATER FORECASTS OF THE
NAM AND RAP MODELS.
LATER FORECASTS USING THE RAP MODEL MIGHT INDICATE CONDITIONS
NECESSITATING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH NOON
MONDAY ACROSS NRN NEB. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE MID 20S WITH
COMPLETE OVERCAST AND H850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -5C TO -10C.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
MONDAY COMMUTE COULD BE TRICKY AS SNOW CONTINUES WITH MANY
LOCATIONS SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING...AND MOST AREAS TO
ALREADY HAVE ACCUMULATED AT LEAST A LITTLE SNOW. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON THE SNOW WILL LINGER ACROSS N CENTRAL. WILL ALSO SEE
WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME MONDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
ONLY AN INCH OR TWO FOR THE MOST PART...SO NOT TO WORRIED ABOUT
BLOWING SNOW. ALSO WILL SEE TEMPS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK FOR
THE AFTERNOON WHERE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED...SW NEB.
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS FROM REALLY DROPPING BY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE WITH A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE...HOWEVER IF SKIES DO GO CLEAR EARLY THE
COOLER MAV GUIDANCE WOULD BE FAVORED.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AS RIDGE TO THE WEST
AMPLIFIES. THE GFS AND NAM TRACK A SUBTLE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WED NIGHT...HOWEVER LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND MODELS ARE DRY. THE EC/CANADIAN KEEP
THE WAVE TO THE NORTH. FORECAST ACKNOWLEDGES THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
INCREASE OF CLOUDS...HOWEVER WILL KEEP THINGS DRY.
RIDGE EXPANDS TO END THE WEEK. 850 MB TEMPS ON THE INCREASE AND
TEMPS SHOULD PUSH WELL INTO THE 40S AND SOME AREAS INTO THE 50S
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND WILL NEED TO WATCH AS THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING
STILL IN QUESTION AND GENERALLY CONSENSUS IS JUST PAST THE
CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD...BUT LOOKS TO BRING MORE SEASONAL TEMPS
AND POSSIBLY SOME PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
AS A FRONT COMES IN BEHIND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...LOWER CEILING ARE LIKELY...FIRST IN NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA THEN IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SOMETIME
AFTER 02Z.
UNTIL THEN...CEILING AND VISIBILITY WILL BE UNLIMITED WITH WIND
LESS THAN 10KT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
344 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN. THE BEST
GUESS ON HIGHS PRODUCES 30S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH. THE RAP WAS
THE WARMEST MODEL WITH 50S SOUTH BUT THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S.
LIGHT SNOW APPEARS LIKELY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NAM MODEL
WHICH SHOWS MOISTURE POOLING TO NEAR 0.50 INCHES. DEEP BUT GENTLE
LIFT TO 500MB BEHIND AN H700MB LOW TRACKING THROUGH CNTL NEB
SUGGESTS A BANDED SNOW STRUCTURE. THE FORECAST IS FOR 1 TO NEARLY
2 INCHES ACROSS ERN SHERIDAN AND WRN CHERRY COUNTIES. THE NAM
HOWEVER SHOWS 4 TO 6 INCHES IN THIS AREA USING ITS SNOW RATIO OF
13 TO 1 AND HEAVIER QPF.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE H700MB LOW TRACKING ALONG I-80 AND
THE SREF WAS MUCH DRIER THAN THE NAM WITH ABOUT HALF THE QPF AS
WERE THE ARW...NMM...GFS AND ECM MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT WILL MIND LATER FORECASTS OF THE
NAM AND RAP MODELS.
LATER FORECASTS USING THE RAP MODEL MIGHT INDICATE CONDITIONS
NECESSITATING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH NOON
MONDAY ACROSS NRN NEB. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE MID 20S WITH
COMPLETE OVERCAST AND H850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -5C TO -10C.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
MONDAY COMMUTE COULD BE TRICKY AS SNOW CONTINUES WITH MANY
LOCATIONS SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING...AND MOST AREAS TO
ALREADY HAVE ACCUMULATED AT LEAST A LITTLE SNOW. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON THE SNOW WILL LINGER ACROSS N CENTRAL. WILL ALSO SEE
WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME MONDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
ONLY AN INCH OR TWO FOR THE MOST PART...SO NOT TO WORRIED ABOUT
BLOWING SNOW. ALSO WILL SEE TEMPS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK FOR
THE AFTERNOON WHERE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED...SW NEB.
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS FROM REALLY DROPPING BY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE WITH A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE...HOWEVER IF SKIES DO GO CLEAR EARLY THE
COOLER MAV GUIDANCE WOULD BE FAVORED.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AS RIDGE TO THE WEST
AMPLIFIES. THE GFS AND NAM TRACK A SUBTLE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WED NIGHT...HOWEVER LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND MODELS ARE DRY. THE EC/CANADIAN KEEP
THE WAVE TO THE NORTH. FORECAST ACKNOWLEDGES THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
INCREASE OF CLOUDS...HOWEVER WILL KEEP THINGS DRY.
RIDGE EXPANDS TO END THE WEEK. 850 MB TEMPS ON THE INCREASE AND
TEMPS SHOULD PUSH WELL INTO THE 40S AND SOME AREAS INTO THE 50S
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND WILL NEED TO WATCH AS THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING
STILL IN QUESTION AND GENERALLY CONSENSUS IS JUST PAST THE
CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD...BUT LOOKS TO BRING MORE SEASONAL TEMPS
AND POSSIBLY SOME PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
AS A FRONT COMES IN BEHIND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...LOWER CEILING ARE LIKELY...FIRST IN NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA THEN IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SOMETIME
AFTER 02Z.
UNTIL THEN...CEILING AND VISIBILITY WILL BE UNLIMITED WITH WIND
LESS THAN 10KT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1121 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
OUTSIDE OF A FEW FLURRIES MAINLY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN QUIET ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...WITH
UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING BROAD RIDGING SLIDING EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN THE MAJOR STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
EAST COAST AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST COAST.
ONCE AGAIN THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS HAS BEEN STUBBORN TO DISSIPATE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THOUGH WRN PORTIONS HAVE STARTED SEEING
MORE SUN THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY AT
TIMES TODAY...AS A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BRINGING SERLY
WINDS TO THE CWA. SPEEDS HAVE BEEN AROUND 15 MPH FOR MOST...WITH
GUSTS AT TIMES NEAR 25 MPH. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...OUT WEST NEAR LXN
WHERE THE SUN HAS COME OUT...TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE
40S...FURTHER EAST...STUCK IN THE 20S.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS THAT WRN DISTURBANCE MOVES FURTHER
INTO THE ROCKIES. THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE.
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM LIES WITH CLOUD COVER AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. STAYED ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE OF THINGS WITH
CLOUD COVER...THOUGH A FEW MODELS SAY THATD BE OVERDONE. DID HAVE
SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...EVEN WITH DECENT
WINDS...AND TONIGHT AM EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH AS A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY SLIDES INTO THE AREA. INSERTED A FOG MENTION INTO THE
FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...BUT BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE WHERE
WINDS ARE LIGHT/VARIABLE OR CALM. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP HAVE
BACKED OFF ITS FOG COVERAGE...BUT THE NAM/HRRR/SREF PROBS REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF ITS DEVELOPMENT.
TOMORROW WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE STRATUS/FOG PRESENT IN THE
MORNING...AND HOW LONG IT TAKES TO DIMINISH. AGAIN KEPT THINGS ON
THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE...SO HIGHS ARE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF TEMPS WE
ARE SEEING THIS AFTERNOON. IF THE FOG/CLOUDS ARE NOT AS BAD AS
CURRENTLY DEPICTED IN THE FORECAST...CURRENT TEMPS WILL BE TOO LOW.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
OVERVIEW...OUR ONLY CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW
AND FREEZING DRIZZLE EXPECTED. WE DRY OUT BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
WILL REMAIN DRY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE
FREEZING MARK AND THEN WARMER AIR MOVES IN WEDNESDAY INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH SHOULD MELT OFF MOST IF NOT ALL OF
OUR SNOW BY LATE WEEK.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THIS IS THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL OPEN SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SLIDING EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. THIS SYSTEM MOVES
TOO FAST AND IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO DRAW IN MUCH MOISTURE AND
THUS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. WE EXPECT A LOW
STRATUS DECK TO THICKEN AND POSSIBLY BEGIN TO PRECIPITATE PRIOR TO
THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVING AND THUS THE 12Z AND 18Z NAM ARE
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES
MONDAY MORNING AND TURNS THE FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER TO SNOW. AT
THIS TIME MODEL QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT AND THERE IS PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A BAND OF SNOW WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT WILL LIKELY ONLY PRODUCE A DUSTING UP TO AROUND 1 INCH.
CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPOTS GETTING A LITTLE MORE THAN THAT...BUT
IT SEEMS LIKE MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IF IT OCCURS MAY END UP BEING THE
BIGGER PROBLEM FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
TUESDAY...REMAINS COOL AND DRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL FLATTEN OUT WITH THE JET BECOMING MORE ZONAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD BRINGING A STEADY STRING OF MODERATE PACIFIC AIR INTO
OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES ALOFT INCREASE AND ASSUMING WE DO NOT GET
TOO MANY LOW CLOUDS...WE SHOULD SEE SOME NICE WARM DAYS RELATIVELY
SPEAKING WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND MAYBE EVEN SOME SPOTS GETTING
INTO THE 50S ONCE THE SNOW MELTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
VSBYS/CIGS DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE CIGS WILL
IMPROVE SOME DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY...EXPECT SOME
LIGHT BR TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITH A RETURN TO MVFR/IFR
VSBYS/CIGS DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS TOMORROW. OVERALL...WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS NEAR 10 KTS SUBSIDING SOME OVERNIGHT...AND NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
916 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN CATSKILLS
IN NEW YORK. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES DURING THE
EVENING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TO
AREAS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
9 PM UPDATE...
AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE OUR WAY OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY. WITH A 15 DEGREE DEW POINT SPREAD, NOTHING MORE THAN
SPRINKLES ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE MOMENT ACROSS OHIO. THE HRRR
SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS PRECIPITATION AND EXPANDS
IT IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY INTO CENTRAL NY. UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS BECAUSE WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH DRY AIR NOT ONLY
IN THE LOW LEVELS BUT MID LEVELS. THIS WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF VIRGA AT THE START, FOLLOWED BY SPOTTY VERY LIGHT QPF.
SO THE TRANSLATION FOR MOST OF THE AREA IS A FEW SPRINKLES AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT.
HOWEVER ACROSS CENTRAL NY, WHILE THE HRRR MAY BE A TAD TOO HEAVY
ON THE QPF, ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT OF OUR ENTIRE AREA
THIS IS THE AREA TO WATCH FOR SOME LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION
AN EAST FLOW OF AIR IS FUNNELING COLDER AIR UP THE MOHAWK VALLEY,
AS EVIDENT IN THE 30/19 READING LAST HOUR AT KSYR. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN HERE. CONFIDENCE
JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT UP AN ADVISORY JUST YET. TO INCREASE
AWARENESS HOWEVER BEFORE THE 10/11 PM NEWS AND BEFORE PEOPLE GO TO
BED, I DID ISSUE AN SPS ON THIS POSSIBILITY. WHILE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF ICE IS POSSIBLE NEAR SYRACUSE AND UTICA, BEST CHANCES FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD WOULD BE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY.
BOTTOMLINE IF YOU LIVE IN CENTRAL NY, CHECK BACK BEFORE YOU HEAD
OUT IN THE MORNING FOR ANY POSSIBLE ADVISORIES. PREVIOUS AFD IS
BELOW...
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...WEAK WAA FORCING DURING THE MORNING HOURS MAY BRING A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY,
TUG HILL PLATEAU AND WESTERN CATSKILLS A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE. DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE, WEAK FORCING
AND MARGINAL SFC TEMPS NOT CONCERNED ABOUT ANY TRAVEL ISSUES.
LATE IN THE DAY A WEAK SFC TROF WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA KEEPING
LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40
TO THE MID 40S.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...H5 TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION WHILE
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH WED MORNING. LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES FAVORABLE FOR LES ACROSS NRN ONEIDA COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THEN THE FLOW GRADUALLY VEERS THROUGH MIDDAY WED AS THE SFC TROF
DROPS SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS NRN ONEIDA
COUNTY THEN SPREAD THE LIKELY POPS TO AREAS SE OF THE LAKE WED
MORNING. TOTAL ACCUMS THROUGH 24 HOURS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 5
INCHES WITH NRN ONEIDA COUNTY MOSTLY LIKELY TO REACH THE HIGHER
END OF THIS RANGE. REST OF CENTRAL NY WILL JUST SEE SCATTERED
FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS IN NE PA.
LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 WITH HIGHS WED IN
THE 30S.
WED NIGHT/THURSDAY...A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER AS BRIEF RIDGING AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT OCCURS WED NIGHT. ON THURSDAY, THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES AS SFC LOW PRES TRACKS
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. CLIPPERS MOVING WELL NORTH OF REGION
UNDER SW SFC FLOW USUALLY MEANS DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT CROSSES, WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
230 PM MONDAY UPDATE...
IN THE BIG PICTURE, A MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD PREVAIL
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. NEXT WEEKEND, THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL, WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT EXPECTED TO RISE
SOMEWHAT OVER THE EASTERN STATES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IN GENERAL, THE ABOVE MEANS NO BIG STORMS THROUGH AT LEAST MON.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEASONABLE FRI, WITH HIGHS RANGING
IN THE 30S. READINGS COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER-MIDDLE 40S OVER
PARTS OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, BEFORE THEY LOWER SOMEWHAT AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER-WISE, SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND, AS A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES/CLIPPERS TRACK ACROSS UPSTATE NY/NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND/SOUTHERN CANADA. STARTING MON, A PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION COULD ENSUE, AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ENERGIZES TO OUR
SOUTH, WHILE A DEVELOPING CYCLONE TRACKS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE...
AFTER VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS MOST OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CLOUDS
WILL MOVE IN BETWEEN 9 AND 12Z. SHOULD DROP TO 1500 FT AND FUEL
ALTERNATES AT RME/BGM/ITH/AVP. MAYBE ALL THE WAY TO IFR AT BGM.
ALSO DURING THIS TIME COULD BE A LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN
SHOWER. CIGS LIFT BACK TO VFR 14 TO 19Z.
SE TO S WINDS 4 TO 8 KTS TONIGHT. TUESDAY MORNING S WINDS 10 KTS
SHIFTING TO SW AND INCREASING TO 10 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
.OUTLOOK...
TU NGT/WED/WED NGT...RESTRICTIONS PROBABLE IN PASSING SNOW
SHOWERS AT KRME/KSYR/KITH/KBGM, WITH VFR MUCH OF THE TIME AT
KELM/KAVP.
THU...VFR.
FRI-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1209 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MAY PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY EAST OF
THE LAKES BEFORE A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BRIEFLY WARM ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWERS RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR MIDNIGHT IS SHOWING THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
SLOWLY ERODING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK INTO THE FINGER LAKES
REGION AND INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER. PATCHES OF CLEARING HAVE ALSO
ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY DROP THIS EVENING. HAVE
LOWERED LOW TEMPS AGAIN EVEN LOWER NOW THAN THE HRRR GUIDANCE.
LOWS NOW ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS WITH NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS IN MUCH OF THE
NORTH COUNTY.
ON SUNDAY A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD FROM HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AREAWIDE.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES. THE MID
CLOUDS SHOULD BE TRANSIENT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A FEW SUNNY BREAKS
DURING THE DAY...WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER ARRIVING DURING THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER WITH WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. EXPECT HIGHS OF AROUND 30 ON THE LAKE
PLAINS OF WESTERN NY WITH MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE EAST OF THE
LAKES WHERE OFF LAKE ONTARIO A COMBINATION OF LIFT FROM THE
SHORTWAVE...AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE FOR SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM THIS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM LAKE ERIE COMBINED WITH LIFT
FROM THE SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO BRING A LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER...POSSIBLY EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH OF THE HILLS OF
SW NYS. HOWEVER FURTHER SOUTHWARD THERE WILL BE LOWER AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND WILL CARRY LOWER POPS HERE SUNDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
MONDAY MORNING EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE DAY
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FORMS BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND A SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE
PLAIN STATES.
THIS PLAIN STATES SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER TO OUR
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL FORM AHEAD OF A
DECENT LLJ OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS JUST BELOW 850 HPA...AND VERTICAL
UPWARD GLIDE ALONG AN ISENTROPIC SURFACE. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW
TEMPERATURES MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A LAYER OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR FROM
THE SURFACE UPWARD TO 3-4K FEET. THOUGH PRECIPITATION MAY START AS A
WINTRY MIX WITH SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY/NORTH COUNTRY FREEZING
RAIN...IT SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN RAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT
OR TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN REMAIN PLAIN RAIN DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. OVERALL RAINFALL DOES NOT LOOK TO AMOUNT TO
MUCH...GENERALLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ONLY ABOVE FREEZING FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME ANY
HYDROLOGIC ISSUES WILL BE MINIMAL FROM BOTH RAIN AND SNOW MELT.
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATER TUESDAY THERE MAY BE
A LITTLE SYNOPTIC CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS...IN ADDITION TO THE
BEGINNINGS OF A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TUESDAY...BECOMING VERY GUSTY DOWNWIND OF
THE LAKES. THERE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITHIN
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...THEN WITHIN THE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME A LITTLE
STRONGER. THE CONCERN WILL BE IN THE INCREASED MIXING HEIGHTS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY SHOULD BE DEEP ENOUGH...COUPLED WITH STRONG
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO TRANSPORT A STILL 40+ KNOT LLJ DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY REACH GUSTS INTO THE 40+ MPH RANGE
ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION THESE GUSTY WINDS IN THE HWO.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BRING 850 HPA TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -13 TO -16C
OVER THE LAKES. THIS WILL BEGIN THE FORMATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
ALOFT AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PASSING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION...AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH
SUGGESTS THAT THE INITIAL BANDS OF SNOW WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE LAKES...THE METRO BUFFALO AREA AND THE WATERTOWN/SLV REGION. AS
THIS OPEN SHORTWAVE DRAWS CLOSER TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL VEER...SUCH THAT SNOWS WILL QUICKLY
DROP SOUTHWARD.
THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS THAT ARE WORKING AGAINST THIS LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EVENT FROM BECOMING A SIGNIFICANT EVENT. ALOFT THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN MATCHES CLOSER TO WEAKER SOUTHWEST FLOW EVENTS FOR BUFFALO
AND THE TUG HILL RATHER THAN STRONG EVENTS OF SEVERAL FEET OR MORE
OF SNOW. THE COLD AIR MASS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS RECENT
EVENTS...WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES AVERAGING -13 TO -16C...AND NOT
NEAR -20C WITH RECENT EVENTS. ALSO THE LAKES ARE COOLER NOW...WITH
ICE FORMING ON LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL LESSEN THE ALREADY MARGINAL
LAPSE RATES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. FINALLY THE BANDS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING...WITH THE PASSING OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WEDNESDAY. THUS AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A LARGE...SEVERAL
FOOT SNOW EVENT FROM THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW RESPONSE...BUT STILL
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS/POTENTIAL HEADLINES ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF UPSTREAM LAKE BAND CONNECTIONS FORM. WILL
INTRODUCE THIS NEXT LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL INTO THE HWO.
AIR TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD WILL TUMBLE FROM JUST ABOVE FREEZING
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...TO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION...BRINGING THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS
WELL. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND WITH A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW...THESE SNOWS WILL
MAINLY BE ACROSS SKI COUNTRY/WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...AND SOUTHEAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO. HOWEVER THERE WILL ALSO BE CHANCES FOR SYNOPTIC
LIGHT SNOWFALL FROM THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AND THUS
WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE NON LAKE BELTS...AND LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS WITHIN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
THURSDAY A BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION...AND
COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL
LARGELY BE TAPERED DOWN BY THEN...LEAVING MUCH OF THE DAY DRY.
HOWEVER A NEARING CLIPPER MAY BRING A RETURN TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE IS STILL MODEL UNCERTAINTY TO
THE TRACK OF THIS LOW...WITH THE ECMWF FARTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE
TRACK OF THE LOW THAN THE GFS. ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW MAY BRING
ADDITIONAL MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE REGION LATER FRIDAY AND
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BUT LIKE THE INITIAL CLIPPER LOW...THERE ARE
STILL MODEL DIFFERENCE TO BE RESOLVED. THE FORECAST COULD CHANGE
DRAMATICALLY IF HINTS OF ANOTHER NOR`EASTER LATE NEXT WEEK
OCCUR...WITH THESE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER LOWS LIKELY TO NOT
IMPACT OUR REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
ERODE WITH ON AND OFF MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.
AN OVERALL SLOW CLEARING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH A PERIOD OF VFR
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES SUNDAY MORNING.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY
MORNING THEN GUIDANCE INDICATES MVFR LOW CLOUDS WORK ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THIS MAY TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR EVEN SOME FZDZ EAST OF THE LAKES SUNDAY EVENING WHICH
HAS BEEN COVERED FOR NOW WITH VCSH.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE TUG
HILL...OTHERWISE VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL DRIFT TO THE MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE A WEAK FRONT MOVES
ACROSS QUEBEC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO WILL BRIEFLY
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF BETTER WINDS ON LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...BUT
IT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL AND BRIEF TO BRING ANY LASTING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LOWER LAKES
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF GALES ON
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
407 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY
MONDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE WEST AT MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME PATCHES OF LOWER CLOUDS REMAIN NEAR THE OHIO AND PA BORDER
AND THERE ARE ALSO SOME HIGH CLOUDS FLOATING ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH THAT SAID...STILL THINK THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD ENJOY A LOT OF
SUNSHINE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THAT MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE FROM THE
EARLIER FORECAST. MOST AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO 30
DEGREES TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SMOOTH SAILING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY BUT CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED AFTER THAT. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
LOW SET TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES ON MONDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL CREEP INTO THE AREA LATE IN
THE DAY MONDAY. DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH
850 TEMPS GETTING ABOVE FREEZING. CRITICAL THICKNESSES WILL BE
CORRESPONDINGLY HIGH AND IT APPEARS WE ARE LOOKING AT MAINLY A
RAIN EVENT. ABOUT A 6 TO 9 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP APPEARS
LIKELY WITH THE PRECIP REACHING NW PA AROUND 06Z ON TUESDAY. BY
DAYBREAK THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ABOUT HALF WAY ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE DRY SLOT BEHIND THE FRONT CUTTING PRECIP OFF IN
NW OHIO. ABOUT 7 OR 8 DEGREES OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY SO HIGHS WILL OCCUR IN THE
MORNING. BY AFTERNOON ANY LINGERING PRECIP COULD SWITCH OVER TO
SNOW. WILL HANG ON TO CHANCES POPS THROUGH THE DAY MOST OF THE
AREA TO COVE THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE
SHOULD GET SET UP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS DOESN`T LOOK
LIKE IT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT EVENT AS INSTABILITY WILL BE
MARGINAL. SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PA WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND THAT WILL CUT THE SNOW OFF FOR GOOD. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS FROM ABOUT KCLE EAST IN THE WNW FLOW FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AFTER MORE THAN A WEEK TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE FREEZING ON
MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. AFTER THAT IT WILL BE BACK TO
SEASONABLE TEMPS. GUIDANCE NUMBERS HAVE BEEN FOLLOWED.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM DOES PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT ACROSS MAINLY NE OH/NW PA BUT THE COLD AIR DOES NOT STICK
AROUND FOR LONG AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL TO END
THE WEEK. WARM ADVECTION INCREASES ON FRIDAY AND MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S BY SATURDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT DO EXPECT PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NWRN
OHIO THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH DID ALLOW FOR A FEW HOURS OF MVFR
CIGS ACROSS NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA. EARLIER HRRR DEPICTED MVFR
CLOUDS EXPANDING OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND DURING THE
EVENING HOURS THEY DID JUST THAT...EXPANDING ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND
INTO KCLE AND THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE. THE PAST FEW HOURS HOWEVER
THE PATCH OF CLOUDS HAS SHRUNK. WHILE STILL OVER KCLE ALLOWED FOR
A TEMPO GROUP FOR SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH 09Z AND THEN WENT BACK
TO SCATTERED ANTICIPATING THE EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS.
THE CURRENT HRRR STILL HANGS ONTO EXPANDING STRATUS ACROSS THE
AREA BUT ASIDE FROM A TEMPO GROUP FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT WILL
JUST KEEP FORECAST PRIMARILY VFR. VFR AGAIN THROUGH SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR UNTIL LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SPREADS INTO THE AREA
LATE MON THRU WED.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS TODAY AS A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL
DECREASE TONIGHT THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY AS A STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OUT OF THE PLAINS. THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC AND PULL A COLD FRONT EAST
ACROSS THE LAKE. WESTERLY WINDS WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE ON THE EAST
END OF THE LAKE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM
DEPARTS FAIRLY QUICKLY AND WINDS WILL DROP OFF ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF
LAKE ERIE FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1131 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MOST OF THE ORIGINAL PATCH OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED
EXCEPT FOR NW PA. ANOTHER PATCH HAS DROPPED SOUTH ACROSS LERI INTO
THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE COUNTIES. NOT SURE IF THIS AREA WILL EXPAND
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. CIRRUS IS ALREADY STARTING TO RAPIDLY
SPREAD INTO THE FAR WEST. WITH ALL THIS COMBINED...WILL TREND MOST
OF CWA TO 50 TO 60% CLOUD COVER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.
WILL ADJUST LOWS DOWN A LITTLE MORE IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER
LOCATIONS SUCH AS HZY AND BJJ.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHICH WILL KEEP US DRY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL BRING SOME WARMTH BACK TO THE AREA.
THERE WILL BE UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS INLAND NW
PA MONDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY END UP BEING A PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN. ELSEWHERE IT APPEARS IT WILL WARM ENOUGH TO
BE ALL RAIN. COLDER AIR ARRIVES IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. IT IS NOT EXTREMELY COLD
AIR FLOWING ACROSS THE LAKE BUT IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO DUMP
ANOTHER COATING OF SNOW ON THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGHS BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 40 FOR MOST OF
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WARM THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH EARLY
HIGHS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETWEEN MID WEEK AND THE END OF THE WEEK WE WILL BE TRANSITIONING
FROM A GENERAL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...GREAT LAKES...AND
NEW ENGLAND TO MORE OF A ZONAL PATTERN. THERE MAY BE A WEAK TROUGH
OR TWO TO QUICKLY CROSS THE GREAT LAKES BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OFF AND ON
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH...AT THIS POINT...HARD TO TIME
FEATURES. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT POSSIBLE TOO...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE
MARGINAL TO SUPPORT IT. TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO BE NEAR NORMAL
WED/THU AND ACTUALLY WARM ABOVE NORMAL TOWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NWRN
OHIO THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH DID ALLOW FOR A FEW HOURS OF MVFR
CIGS ACROSS NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA. EARLIER HRRR DEPICTED MVFR
CLOUDS EXPANDING OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND DURING THE
EVENING HOURS THEY DID JUST THAT...EXPANDING ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND
INTO KCLE AND THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE. THE PAST FEW HOURS HOWEVER
THE PATCH OF CLOUDS HAS SHRUNK. WHILE STILL OVER KCLE ALLOWED FOR
A TEMPO GROUP FOR SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH 09Z AND THEN WENT BACK
TO SCATTERED ANTICIPATING THE EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS.
THE CURRENT HRRR STILL HANGS ONTO EXPANDING STRATUS ACROSS THE
AREA BUT ASIDE FROM A TEMPO GROUP FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT WILL
JUST KEEP FORECAST PRIMARILY VFR. VFR AGAIN THROUGH SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR UNTIL LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SPREADS INTO THE AREA
LATE MON THRU WED.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON THE LAKE THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE
BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY MORNING. THEY WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE ON THE EAST COAST. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
AID IN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY. THERE ARE STILL A
FEW DIFFERENCES ON THE ADVERTISED STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE
LOW...BUT SW WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE A GOOD BET. SOME SHIFTING OF
THE ICE ON THE WESTERN BASIN POSSIBLE. A SHIFT TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AS WINDS DIMINISH AND HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES US INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
924 PM PST SAT JAN 23 2016
.DISCUSSION...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN OREGON
CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM PST. A FEW SNOW
FLURRIES MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT BUT WHAT IS LIKELY THE LAST BAND OF
NOTEWORTHY ACCUMULATION IS NOW DISSIPATING BETWEEN LAKE OF THE
WOODS AND HOWARD PRAIRIE. A FEW VERY LIGHT OVERRUNNING
SHOWERS OUT OF LOW-TOPPED CLOUDS...LIKELY OVERSHOT BY THE
RADAR...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST SIDE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
QPF WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH BUT HIGHEST IN THE
COASTAL RANGE.
THE 00Z GFS DATA HAS ARRIVED AND HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH
WHAT WILL BE A WEAK TROUGH THAT WILL SPREAD LIGHT TO BRIEFLY
MODERATE RAIN TO THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD INLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT. IT IS A LOW AMOUNT/HIGH PROBABILITY PRECIPITATION
EVENT WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AT WEST SIDE ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 TO 4000 FEET AND
GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW ON THE EAST SIDE...EXCEPT UP
TO 2 INCHES IN NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL TAPER OFF LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW WITH A STABLE AIR MASS MONDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A NEW ROUND OF RISES ON WEST SIDE RIVERS AND STREAMS. THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE. THE ECMWF IS
STRONGER THAN THE GFS WITH THE INTIAL SYSTEM THURSDAY/FRIDAY WHILE
THE GFS HAS A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 24/00Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR CIGS/VIS WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION WITH SHOWERS TAPERING
OFF AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. IN THE MEANTIME, VFR CIGS ARE BEING
OBSERVED BETWEEN SHOWERS. AS THESE SHOWERS BECOME LESS NUMEROUS AND
BRIEF RIDGING BUILDS IN, THE ATMOSPHERE MAY STABILIZE ENOUGH FOR AREAS
OF IFR CIGS/VIS TO DEVELOP IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS, MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
LOCAL TIME. THESE LOWER CONDITIONS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY SUNDAY MORNING
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
TO THE AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KLMT
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. -BR-Y
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 245 PM PST SATURDAY 23 JAN 2016...LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING THEN MOVE ONSHORE. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS
SUNDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER SLOW-MOVING FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MUCH STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE IN NEXT WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. VERY HIGH SEAS ARE
POSSIBLE BY LATE NEXT WEEK. -JRS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM PST SAT JAN 23 2016/
DISCUSSION...ROTATION ON THE BACK END OF THE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION IS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE ON THE COAST. ANOTHER
LINE OF SHOWERS IS SHOWING ON THE RADAR ON THE COAST THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHERN CASCADES WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR...WITH ANOTHER BAND MOVING IN ON THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST THAT THE HRRR BRINGS INTO THE CASCADES AROUND 3Z. WITH THE
MODELS MATCHING THE RADAR VERY WELL AM KEEPING SISKIYOU ADVISORIES
UP UNTIL 4 PM WITH THIS WAVE MOVING THROUGH NOW AND THE CASCADES
UP UNTIL THE NORTHERLY BAND IS THROUGH. SHOWERS DIMINISH BUT
REMAIN IN THE COLD AIR MASS ALOFT EVEN WITH THE WEAK RIDGING. A
STRONGER UPPER RIDGE BUILDS WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM SLIDING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF IT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER
THE PACNW. THIS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY WITH WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM IN LINE MOVING ONSHORE BY LATE MORNING. -SVEN
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD IN PLACE ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT IT WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST. THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS MAINLY CONFINED OVER THE
WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IT WILL REMAIN DRY AND MILD INLAND. THE
NEXT FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
THEN GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE MODELS
DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT, BUT GENERALLY THEY ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. THE ONE THING THAT IS COMMON IS THE FRONT WILL BE NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE 500 MB FLOW. THEREFORE THE FRONT IS GOING TO BE SLOW
TO MOVE IN. IN ADDITION THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT WE COULD BE
DEALING WITH AN AR (ATMOSPHERIC RIVER) EVENT WITH A FAVORABLE
SOUTHWEST FLOW. GIVEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED SCENARIOS, WE COULD BE
DEALING WITH HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS
STARTING THURSDAY MORNING AND LASTING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IF THAT
WEREN`T ENOUGH, SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH (BETWEEN 8500
AND 9000 FEET) WHICH MEANS WE`LL HAVE TO DEAL WITH SNOW MELT ON TOP
OF THE HEAVY RAIN. THUS RESULTING IN A HIGHER CONCERN FOR FLOODING.
KEEP IN MIND IT`S STILL A WAYS OUT AND DETAILS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE,
BUT IT`S SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THE CORE OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN CAL AND SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW
WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING. THE EC BRINGS THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THE FRONT BECOMING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE 500 MB
FLOW WHICH IF CORRECT WOULD CAUSE THE FRONT TO MOVE SLOW OR STALL.
THE CANADIAN SOLUTION IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS. FOR NOW TRENDED TOWARDS
A THE SLOWER GFS/CANADIAN SOLUTION. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
GENERAL TROUGHINESS OVER HE AREA NEXT SUNDAY WITH COOLER AND SHOWERY
WEATHER. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
ORZ027-028.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM
PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
$$
DW/SBN/JRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1042 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY...KEEPING DEEPER MOISTURE JUST TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION
ON FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EST MONDAY...LATEST NAM CONTINUES TO YIELD A HUNDREDTH
OR SO OF PRECIP OVER PORTIONS OF THE SW NC MTNS BY MORNING...HOWEVER
AM SKEPTICAL THAT WILL OCCUR AS 02Z CAM GUIDANCE SAYS OTHERWISE.
NOT TO MENTION THAT THE CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT
IS JUST NOT GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER...AND HAS YET TO CROSS THE
MS RIVER. THUS...DIDNT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO POPS AND THEREFORE NO
WINTRY PRECIP IS FCST. OTHERWISE...TWEAKED TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS
IN THE EXTREME NEAR TERM AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST
UNCHANGED WITH THIS UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NE ACROSS THE MID WEST TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SWEEP EAST...REACHING MIDDLE
TN BY 12Z TUESDAY. STEADY SW WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA
OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE RETURN FLOW AND INCREASING SKY
COVER WILL LIMIT COOLING OVERNIGHT. USING A BLEND OF MOS...FORECAST
MIN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE
HEART OF THE SNOW PACK...WITH MID 30S ELSEWHERE. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT
PATCHY BLACK ICE IN THE HWO FOR AREAS THAT OVERLAP SNOW COVERED
GROUND AND FREEZING TEMPS.
THE ONSET OF PREFRONTAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MTNS IS A GREATER
FORECAST CHALLENGE. 12Z SPECTRAL MODELS INDICATE THAT LIGHT PRECIP
WILL REACH THE EXTREME WESTERN NC MTNS BY 12Z TUESDAY. CAMS INDICATE
THAT THE MTNS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH DECENT COVERAGE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. I WILL SIDE WITH THE RECENT
CAMS FOR TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF PRE FRONTAL PRECIP...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN LITTLE TO NO RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. THIS CHANGE WILL REMOVE THE MENTION OF
LIGHT FZRA FROM THE FORECAST.
TUESDAY...THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AS IT
BECOMES NEARLY PARALLEL TO MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND AS IT ENCOUNTERS
THE MTNS. BY LATE AFTERNOON...I WILL FORECAST CATE ALONG THE TN
LINE TO SCHC POPS EAST OF THE MTNS. QPF VALUES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL
REMAIN VERY LIGHT...WITH GRAHAM AND SWAIN RECIEVING THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS OF .25 OF AN INCH. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO UPPER 50S EAST OF I-85.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM PROGRESSIVE
LARGE LONGWAVE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DUE TO WARM 850MB/SURFACE TEMPERATURES...PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FROPA IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN OVER PIEDMONT
AREAS...AND MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF MIXED
PRECIP OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA BEHIND
THE FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FETCH OF
GULF MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG
AND LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP TOTALS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND A QUARTER INCH IN THE HIGHEST PRECIP AREAS. LATEST NAM AND
SREF GUIDANCE HAVE RAIN IN ALL AREAS INITIALLY WITH A LIMITED CHANCE
FOR A SMALL AMOUNT OF MIXED PRECIP AND SNOW NEAR THE TN BORDER
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH ALSO HAVE SOME CHANCE FOR CONTAINING
MIXED PRECIP TYPES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AN UPSTREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES AREA THURSDAY
MORNING WHICH SERVES TO REINFORCE THE NORTHWEST 850MB FLOW THURSDAY
EVENING OVER THE CWA WITH ANOTHER FROPA...THIS ONE MUCH DRIER WITH
LIMITED PRECIP POTENTIAL...BUT INCREASING SURFACE WINDS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM MONDAY...A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD A LESS-
AMPLIFIED/QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IS IN THE OFFING FOR THE MEDIUM
RANGE...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO A WARMING TREND WITH MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. IN FACT...WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...A LARGE WARM SECTOR WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF S/SW FLOW
RESULTING IN TEMPS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE...AND THIS
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS INTENSIFYING S/SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF GREAT
PLAINS/MID-MISS VALLEY CYCLONE RESULTS IN INCREASING MECHANICAL LIFT
NEAR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THAT SAID...NAM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FAVOR LLV MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION AROUND
DAYBREAK AND THUS OUTPUT REMAINS SUCH THAT MVFR CIGS COULD OCCUR.
LOOKED AT THE LATEST HRRR SOUNDINGS TO COMPARE AND THOSE WERE A
TAD DRIER IN THE LLVS...HOWEVER STILL SHOWED SOME MOISTENING.
THUS...OPTED TO BACK OFF A BIT ON THE CIGS AND THUS PREVAILED
SCT LOW VFR WITH A TEMPO FOR SCT MVFR. OTHERWISE...SW FLOW WILL
PREVAIL ON TUESDAY AMIDST LOWERING CIGS WITH LOW VFR CIGS FAVORED
NLT THAT 22Z...POSSIBLY SOONER THAN THAT. KEPT THE TAF DRY AS
POPS REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF SET.
ELSEWHERE...TRENDS SIMILAR TO THAT OF KCLT HOWEVER A BIT FASTER.
FAVORED VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KAVL WHERE
PREFRONTAL MOISTURE LOOKS TO SURGE INTO THE MTNS AFTER SUNRISE.
THUS KAVL FEATURES VCSH BY 14Z...PREVAILING RA AT 16Z AMIDST MVFR
CIGS/VISB THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS AT ALL SITES
WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF THE SW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT ON TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT-THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MAY REMAIN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
03-09Z 09-15Z 15-21Z 21-00Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 67% HIGH 91%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 73%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG/NED
SHORT TERM...WJM
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...CDG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
640 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY...KEEPING DEEPER MOISTURE JUST TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION
ON FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EST MONDAY...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK AS MID/HIGH
CIRRUS STREAMS IN ALOFT FROM THE MS VALLEY FRONTAL SYSTEM. OPTED TO
HOLD OFF ON MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE NEAR TERM POPS...SPECIFICALLY
FOR THE MORNING HOURS...UNTIL ALL THE 00Z GUIDANCE ARRIVES.
THUS ANY ADDITIONS/SUBTRACTIONS OF POPS AND THUS POSSIBLE FZRA
IN THE SW MTN VALLEYS WILL BE ADDRESSED AT THE EVENING UPDATE.
OTHERWISE...TWEAKED TEMEPRATURES/DEWPOINTS IN THE EXTREME NEAR
TERM AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AS IT WAS FOR THIS UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NE ACROSS THE MID WEST TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SWEEP EAST...REACHING MIDDLE
TN BY 12Z TUESDAY. STEADY SW WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA
OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE RETURN FLOW AND INCREASING SKY
COVER WILL LIMIT COOLING OVERNIGHT. USING A BLEND OF MOS...FORECAST
MIN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE
HEART OF THE SNOW PACK...WITH MID 30S ELSEWHERE. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT
PATCHY BLACK ICE IN THE HWO FOR AREAS THAT OVERLAP SNOW COVERED
GROUND AND FREEZING TEMPS.
THE ONSET OF PREFRONTAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MTNS IS A GREATER
FORECAST CHALLENGE. 12Z SPECTRAL MODELS INDICATE THAT LIGHT PRECIP
WILL REACH THE EXTREME WESTERN NC MTNS BY 12Z TUESDAY. CAMS INDICATE
THAT THE MTNS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH DECENT COVERAGE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. I WILL SIDE WITH THE RECENT
CAMS FOR TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF PRE FRONTAL PRECIP...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN LITTLE TO NO RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. THIS CHANGE WILL REMOVE THE MENTION OF
LIGHT FZRA FROM THE FORECAST.
TUESDAY...THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AS IT
BECOMES NEARLY PARALLEL TO MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND AS IT ENCOUNTERS
THE MTNS. BY LATE AFTERNOON...I WILL FORECAST CATE ALONG THE TN
LINE TO SCHC POPS EAST OF THE MTNS. QPF VALUES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL
REMAIN VERY LIGHT...WITH GRAHAM AND SWAIN RECIEVING THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS OF .25 OF AN INCH. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO UPPER 50S EAST OF I-85.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM PROGRESSIVE
LARGE LONGWAVE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DUE TO WARM 850MB/SURFACE TEMPERATURES...PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FROPA IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN OVER PIEDMONT
AREAS...AND MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF MIXED
PRECIP OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA BEHIND
THE FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FETCH OF
GULF MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG
AND LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP TOTALS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND A QUARTER INCH IN THE HIGHEST PRECIP AREAS. LATEST NAM AND
SREF GUIDANCE HAVE RAIN IN ALL AREAS INITIALLY WITH A LIMITED CHANCE
FOR A SMALL AMOUNT OF MIXED PRECIP AND SNOW NEAR THE TN BORDER
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH ALSO HAVE SOME CHANCE FOR CONTAINING
MIXED PRECIP TYPES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AN UPSTREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES AREA THURSDAY
MORNING WHICH SERVES TO REINFORCE THE NORTHWEST 850MB FLOW THURSDAY
EVENING OVER THE CWA WITH ANOTHER FROPA...THIS ONE MUCH DRIER WITH
LIMITED PRECIP POTENTIAL...BUT INCREASING SURFACE WINDS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM MONDAY...A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD A LESS-
AMPLIFIED/QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IS IN THE OFFING FOR THE MEDIUM
RANGE...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO A WARMING TREND WITH MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. IN FACT...WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...A LARGE WARM SECTOR WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF S/SW FLOW
RESULTING IN TEMPS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE...AND THIS
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS INTENSIFYING S/SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF GREAT
PLAINS/MID-MISS VALLEY CYCLONE RESULTS IN INCREASING MECHANICAL LIFT
NEAR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THAT SAID...NAM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FAVOR LLV MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION AROUND
DAYBREAK AND THUS OUTPUT REMAINS SUCH THAT MVFR CIGS COULD OCCUR.
LOOKED AT THE LATEST HRRR SOUNDINGS TO COMPARE AND THOSE WERE A
TAD DRIER IN THE LLVS...HOWEVER STILL SHOWED SOME MOISTENING.
THUS...OPTED TO BACK OFF A BIT ON THE CIGS AND THUS PREVAILED
SCT LOW VFR WITH A TEMPO FOR SCT MVFR. OTHERWISE...SW FLOW WILL
PREVAIL ON TUESDAY AMIDST LOWERING CIGS WITH LOW VFR CIGS FAVORED
NLT THAT 22Z...POSSIBLY SOONER THAN THAT. KEPT THE TAF DRY AS
POPS REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF SET.
ELSEWHERE...TRENDS SIMILAR TO THAT OF KCLT HOWEVER A BIT FASTER.
FAVORED VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KAVL WHERE
PREFRONTAL MOISTURE LOOKS TO SURGE INTO THE MTNS AFTER SUNRISE.
THUS KAVL FEATURES VCSH BY 14Z...PREVAILING RA AT 16Z AMIDST MVFR
CIGS/VISB THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS AT ALL SITES
WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF THE SW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT ON TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT-THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MAY REMAIN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
23-05Z 05-11Z 11-17Z 17-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% LOW 55% LOW 57%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% LOW 55% HIGH 85%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 64%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 60% LOW 57%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% LOW 55% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG/NED
SHORT TERM...WJM
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...CDG
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE.
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO
THIS MORNING...WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY. AS MODELS SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
SYSTEM...ALONG WITH DRY AIR BETWEEN 850-700 MB...TODAY SHOULD BE
DRY. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT...IT BECOMES AN INVERTED TROUGH...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW
OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. THERE IS SOME LIFT IN THE FAIRLY
HIGH SNOW GROWTH REGION WITH OMEGA VALUES IN THE 5-10 MICROBARS
RANGE. THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
PWATS RANGE BETWEEN 0.40 TO 0.5 INCHES...OR NEAR THE 90TH
PERCENTILE. BASICALLY THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOWFALL THAN
THE CURRENT FORECAST. AS OF NOW...LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF
A LINE FROM ABERDEEN...TO FAULKTON...TO PIERRE COULD SEE 2 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW. BELIEVE LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM SISSETON TO REDFIELD...TO MILLER COULD SEE 3 TO 4 INCHES.
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NOW AS THE
LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE 0Z
NAM HAD 2 TO 3 OVER ABERDEEN. THE 6Z NAM ONLY HAS A HALF TO ONE
INCH AT BEST. CURRENTLY THE 6Z NAM IS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM.
PCPN SHOULD GRADUALLY END FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.
THE OUT PERIODS STILL LOOK DRY AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STILL
APPEARS TO FLATTEN INTO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW BY WEEK`S END. THERE
REMAINS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONGST MODELS FOR AN ALBERTA CLIPPER
SYSTEM SWEEPING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE WED-THUR
TIMEFRAME. STILL NOT ALL THAT CLEAR JUST WHERE THE PRECIP FOOTPRINT
AND STRONG WINDS CORRIDOR WILL END UP. AND...IT DOES LOOK LIKE MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SETTING UP SHOP ACROSS ALL OR SOME
PORTION OF THE CWA FROM LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN AREA OF IFR
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR STRATUS HAS SETTLED OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING. THIS STRATUS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING AS A SYSTEM
STARTS TO AFFECT THE AREA WITH SNOW. SNOW WILL BEGIN IN KPIR
AROUND 3Z AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST CONTINUING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. CIGS MAY LIFT TO MVFR AS SNOW
BEGINS BUT VSBY WILL FALL TO IFR IN HEAVIER SNOW AND IN BLOWING
SNOW.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...WISE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1026 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
DIFFICULT FORECAST TONIGHT WITH STRATUS AND FOG. CURRENTLY...LAYER
OF STRATUS HANGING TOUGH EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. AS WEAK
SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND SUNSET OCCURS...EXPECT
WINDS TO DIE OFF. WITH CLEARING TO THE WEST TODAY...HAD SOME
MELTING INCREASING THE MOISTURE IN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER.
UPSTAIRS...EXPECTING CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z WHICH WILL HELP TO PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT TRAPPING MOISTURE IN
THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER. THE REAL QUESTIONS WILL BE HOW THE LAYER OF
STRATUS ACROSS THE EAST WILL IMPACT FOG DEVELOPMENT...AND HOW
WIDESPREAD THE FOG WILL GET. SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST FOG
DEVELOPING IN NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA LAT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
QUICKLY EXPANDING SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE BEEN
VERY CONSISTENT WITH FOG THROUGH HOURLY ITERATIONS...AND MAY NEED TO
ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS EVENING.
WITH STRATUS AND FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH THE NIGHT...HAVE RAISED
FORECAST LOWS OVERNIGHT.
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER AT LEAST WELL INTO THE MORNING HOURS
IF NOT ALL DAY ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE MENTION OF FOG
THROUGH 18Z...BUT COULD LAST LONGER WITH LOW SUN ANGLE. HAVE
LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS...EFFECTIVELY SQUASHING THE DIURNAL RANGE
ON SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO GREATLY INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE FLOW REMAINS SPLIT...BUT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FAR ENOUGH
NORTH WHICH DOES NOT CUTOFF OUR MOISTURE AND ALLOWS A 12 TO 18 HOUR
WINDOW OF DEEP MOISTURE RETURN. EARLY IN THE EVENT HOWEVER...THERE
IS A LAYER OF DRY AIR FROM 850-700MB TO OVERCOME WHICH BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS SHOW SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A YANKTON SD
TO MARSHALL MN LINE. THIS WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF NOT ONLY REDUCED
MEASURABLE POPS FOR THESE AREAS...BUT PRECIP AMOUNTS AS WELL. BUT ON
MONDAY...STRONG QG FORCING LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN KS TO
SOUTHEAST WI ALONG THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH IS LIFTING OUT IN
A QUASI-NEGATIVE TILT. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS MODERATELY STRONG
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ON MONDAY IN THE 750-650MB LAYER...AND NOW BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING TROWALING MAXIMIZED IN THE 290-305K
LAYER BISECTING OUR FORECAST AREA FROM NEAR LAKE ANDES/YANKTON...
NORTHEASTWARD TO MARSHALL/WINDOM. STILL LOOKS LIKE MAINLY A 1 TO 2
INCH SNOW EVENT...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY MORE IN PARTS OF OUR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ZONES. BUT WHAT MAY BE KEEPING SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN SOMEWHAT
IS A LACK OF LESS STABLE AIR ABOVE THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FIELD.
THE WAVE THEN RAPIDLY EXISTS OUR EASTERN ZONES MONDAY EVENING WHICH
WILL LEAVE A DRY TUESDAY.
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT
CHOSE TO GO MORE WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED RAW VALUES AND THE WEIGHTED
MODEL WHICH WERE A FAIR AMOUNT WARMER THEN CONVENTIONAL BLEND
GUIDANCE VALUES. OBVIOUSLY ONLY A MINIMAL TEMPERATURE RISE IS IN
STORE FOR MONDAY ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH
RANGE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. 925MB THERMAL
FIELD SUGGESTS A SEASONABLY COOL DAY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID 20S.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS DOMINATED BY A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WHICH WILL GIVE LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURE PROFILE CONTINUES TO SHOW A MODERATING TEMPERATURE
REGIME WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MANY HIGHS IN THE 30S TO EVEN
SOME LOWER 40S IN OUR MO RIVER VALLEY ZONES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1007 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH FOG AND STRATUS
POTENTIAL TONIGHT...LEADING TO ANOTHER CHALLENGING AVIATION
FORECAST. CONSIDERABLE MID-UPR CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT FOG AT BAY
NEAR THE TERMINAL SITES...AND EXPECTED THIS TO CONTINUE FOR
AWHILE. FURTHER EAST...FOG HAS DEVELOPED UNDER THE STRATUS
DECK...BUT STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED WINDS ARE ALSO KEEPING IT
FROM BECOMING DENSE.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE WILL
FINALLY SEE FOG TRY TO BUILD WESTWARD ONCE WINDS TURN LIGHT
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. JUST HOW LOW VISIBILITY DROPS IS UNCERTAIN. FOR
NOW...WILL MAINTAIN A TEMPORARY 1SM RESTRICTION FOR A FEW HOURS
AT FSD...WITH GENERAL MVFR VISIBILITY AND IFR CIGS INTO LATE
MORNING.
STRATUS PLUNGING SOUTHWARD FORM NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD ENVELOP THE
AREA BY MID-DAY AND OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...DUX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
651 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WITH LIGHT SHWRS DEVELOPING/MOVING IN SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...
AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SOLUTION...BACKED OFF POPS
THRU MID EVENING HRS W TO E ACROSS THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS. ALSO...
BELIEVE FOR LOCATIONS AHEAD OF EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION TUE MORNING...JUST
E OF I-65...THAT TEMPS AROUND THIS AREA AND FOR LOCATIONS TO THE E...THAT
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...
MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THIS REASONING GOES WELL WITH CURRENT LAMP
GUIDANCE VALUES ALSO. ALSO TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITION...
AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
THE TAF PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH VFR AT ALL SITES...BUT CONDITIONS
WILL LOWER TO MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES WITH SCT SHRA. BNA AND CKV WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF IFR
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BETWEEN 07Z-15Z...THEN CLIMB BACK TO
MVFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. CSV WILL DROP TO IFR BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY...AND WILL LIKELY HOLD IFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH SHRA.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........13
LONG TERM..................31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
529 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
FEATURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SSW ACROSS
EARN TX. CLOUDS ARE ALREADY ON THE INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF IT. ONLY
APPRECIABLE PRECIP UPSTREAM IS LOCATED OVER ERN NEBRASKA WHERE THE
BEST PVA RESIDES.
FOR TONIGHT...SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
COMMENCE. LATEST HRRR INFO SUPPORTS SCT TO BKN SHOWER ACTIVITY
MAKING IT INTO FAR NWRN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE AS EARLY AS 01Z OR
02Z. THE FROPA WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT...TOWARD SUNRISE. POST
FRONTAL SECTOR DOES SHOW SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY UPSTREAM.
THUS...SHOWER CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
RAIN TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND .15 INCHES FAR NW...TO NEARLY
0.75 INCHES FAR SOUTHEAST.
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LAST APPRECIABLE LOBE OF PVA MAY INTERACT WITH
SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE OVER THE PLATEAU. BY THEN...FREEZING LEVELS
WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW MIX. NO
ACCUM IS EXPECTED THOUGH. PCLDY AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...MILDER WEATHER FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. THEN...SEASONAL TEMPS WILL RETURN
BEHIND THE FROPA AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
IN THE EXT FCST...NWLY FETCH WILL REMAIN FOR THU AND FRI WITH DRY
WEATHER AND TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL. A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR
NE THU NT BUT OTHER THAN A FEW ADDED CLDS...IT WILL REMAIN DRY.
WARMING TREND TO COMMENCE ON SATURDAY AS A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TEAMS UP WITH RISING HEIGHTS. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
RETURN MAY OCCUR AND WILL THEREFORE INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SHOWERS BY SUN NT AND MON.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
THE TAF PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH VFR AT ALL SITES...BUT CONDITIONS
WILL LOWER TO MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES WITH SCT SHRA. BNA AND CKV WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF IFR
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BETWEEN 07Z-15Z...THEN CLIMB BACK TO
MVFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. CSV WILL DROP TO IFR BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY...AND WILL LIKELY HOLD IFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH SHRA.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........13
LONG TERM..................31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
245 AM PST SUN JAN 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. A WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL OVER THE
COAST AND IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW. ANOTHER FRONT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A VERY WET AND WINDY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. BUT...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES THIS MORNING AND CONVERGENCE AROUND THE OLYMPICS IS
PRODUCING A CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM AROUND PORT TOWNSEND ESE TO
STEVENS PASS. SHOWERS ARE ALSO SEEN ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES AND SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE SEEN FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS ONTO THE WASHINGTON COAST. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY
COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
A NEGATIVELY TILTED FRONT FROM ABOUT 53N 140W SE INTO THE SOUTHERN
OREGON COASTAL WATERS WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE WASHINGTON COAST
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE
SE INTO OREGON. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT TONIGHT WILL DISSIPATE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SE INTO NORTHWESTERN OREGON AS ITS UPPER
SUPPORT SPLITS SE. MODELS ALL GENERALLY SHOW LIGHT RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON THE COAST AND IN THE INTERIOR FROM ABOUT
THE WILLAPA HILLS AND CHEHALIS SOUTHWARD. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION NORTHWARD TO AROUND A PORT ANGELES TO EVERETT TO
STEVENS PASS LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO SOME LOW
CHANCE POPS WILL BE KEPT IN THE FORECAST.
ONCE TONIGHTS SYSTEM DISSIPATES...ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO
WESTERN WASHINGTON ON MONDAY AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY LOW LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW. AFTER AREAS OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG...MONDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A NICE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
RISING TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. THE NICE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER WEAKENING AND SPLITTING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ONSHORE AS IT DISSIPATES ON TUESDAY.
MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE WEAKENING THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WHILE THE AREA
WILL LIKELY SEE LIGHT RAIN ON TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS APPEAR
TO BE TRENDING DOWNWARD WITH THIS WEAKENING SYSTEM. ALBRECHT
.LONG TERM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE INLAND WEST ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST
AND NEARLY STALLS. THE FRONT COMING IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WILL BE CHARGED WITH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM NW OF HAWAII...AND
THE MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSPORTED QUICKLY INTO THE AREA BY A 50-65
KNOT 850 MB SWLY WIND. SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WHAT LOOKS LIKE
A 24-36 HOUR ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT THAT RESULTS IN 5-7 INCHES OF
RAIN IN THE OLYMPICS AND 3-5 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE NORTH CASCADES
WITH SNOW LEVELS OVER 8000 FEET. IT WILL BE QUITE MILD FOR LATE
JANUARY WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING ONLY AROUND 50...AND HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 50S ON THU. A FEW MODEL RUNS LIKE THE 06Z GFS SHOW A
STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING ONTO THE NORTH COAST FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HIGH WINDS MAINLY ON THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH INTERIOR. THE
FRONT FINALLY MOVES EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY LEAVING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS. ALBRECHT
&&
.AVIATION...KATX RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ALONG THE KING/SNOHOMISH COUNTY
LINE WHERE THERE IS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. SHOWERS FROM THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL WEAKEN AND DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS ONSHORE
FLOW EASES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING STABLE WEATHER TO THE
INTERIOR TODAY. THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST WITH MVFR
CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN
TO THE COAST. 33
KSEA...MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WITH LITTLE MIXING THIS MORNING.
EXPECT MVFR CIGS THROUGH 18-20Z WITH A LITTLE IMPROVEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN S TO 8 KT. 33
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL MAINTAIN OFFSHORE
FLOW TODAY AND MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CLIP THE COASTAL WATERS ON
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT.
A STRONGER PAC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH GALES POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. A LARGE SWELL
TRAIN MAY REACH THE COAST ON THURSDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FT. 33
&&
.HYDROLOGY...THE SKOKOMISH RIVER CONTINUES TO RECEDE AND SHOULD BE
BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT ITS MOUTH BY 7 AM. WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE FLOOD
WARNING FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER EXPIRE THIS MORNING. THE INCOMING
FRONT FOR TUESDAY IS NOT LOOKING AS WET AS IT WAS ON PREVIOUS
DAYS...SO RENEWED FLOODING ON THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON COUNTY
NOT EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE MAIN FLOOD THREAT OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH BE THE ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER SCENARIO SETTING UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
THURSDAY. THE 00Z GFS IS STILL INDICATING 5 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER THE OLYMPICS WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NORTH CASCADES. THE
12Z UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON WRF HAD EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR THESE
AREAS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING THURSDAY ON THE SKOKOMISH
AS WELL AS THE BOGACHIEL AND SATSOP RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE OLYMPICS.
RIGHT NOW THE FLOODING THREAT FOR RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE CASCADES IS
IN THE NORTH. THIS LIST INCLUDES BUT IS NOT CONFINED TO THE NOOKSACK
AND THE SKAGIT. ALBRECHT/FELTON
&&
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER
10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE U.S.
WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
225 AM PST SUN JAN 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Snow showers will linger into today mainly over the Idaho
Panhandle as a low pressure system slowly exits the region. High
pressure should produce mainly dry conditions throuh early next
week, with the potential for some fog, before more valley rain and
mountain snow returns.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday night...Satellite indicates the latest wave
in the storm parade is beginning to exit to the east of the
region this morning. A weak push of drier low level air is
beginning to push into the region on the west to northwest flow
behind this weakening storm system. Models are in generally good
agreement with the overall field of motion through the next 48
hours or so.
Today will be a day of general improvement over the
region...although residual snow showers will continue over the
Idaho Panhandle mountains through today...with the possibility of
a few inches of snow accumulation in the I-90 corridor near
Lookout Pass. The potential for a Winter Weather Advisory will
need to be monitored through the morning if these showers remain
beefy and persistent. Otherwise generally low clouds will cover
the rising terrain of the eastern basin through the morning but
there is a possibility of sunbreaks this afternoon over much of
the basin as drier air works in and breaks up morning low clouds.
For tonight through Tuesday morning no precipitation is expected
as an upper level rideg sprouts over the region. The next frontal
system visible offshore on satellite is expected to shear out
before reaching the area with pieces of energy cutting to the
south and north of the forecast area...with transient mid and high
clouds passing through tonight and Monday. The main weather issue
for the region will be the return of low clouds and at least
patchy fog especially during the overnight and morning
hours...with cooler daytime highs in a new and more continental
origin dry air mass. /Fugazzi
Tuesday through Saturday: The Inland NW returns to an active
pattern, featuring several opportunities for precipitation,
including mainly snow in the mountains and rain or a rain/snow mix
in the valleys. Temperatures will warm into the Thursday, before
another cool down toward the end of the week. In the big picture a
broad trough deepens over the northeastern Pacific and it
gradually migrates east through the week.
The first shortwave rounding this trough comes in between late
Tuesday and Wednesday. It looks relatively weak and doesn`t have a
great moisture tap. Yet it will bring increasing precipitation
chances, first to Cascades Tuesday. There could be a few flurries
or occasional drizzle with the stratus/patchy fog near the lee of
the Cascades through northern mountains. However a more
appreciable threat of precipitation expands east Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Even then models paint the best threat in the
Cascades and northern mountains. Overall precipitation amounts
look light.
A second system comes into the region between Wednesday night and
Friday, with additional energy approaching Saturday (into next
Sunday). There are still disagreements over the details, including
timing and track. Yet this second system looks much stronger than
the first. It still comes with a modest fetch of moisture with
average PWATs rising to over three-quarters of an inch, before the
plume sags southeast by the week`s end. Given this look for a
broader threat of precipitation to come the region. The highest
risk will be near the Cascades and northern mountains Wednesday
night, before expanding across the region Thursday and Thursday
night. How quickly the precipitation expands across the region
Thursday is where models disagree the most. Then Friday into
Saturday the threat for steadier precipitation retreats into the
mountains, while showery weather lingers elsewhere.
As for precipitation type and impacts: Milder air surges in
between Wednesday and Thursday night, before a relative cool-down
Friday into Saturday. This supports largely mountain snow and
valley rain through Thursday night, though a wintry mixture
is possible in some sheltered valleys especially near the Cascades
and northern valleys. Average snow levels lower Friday into
Saturday and a rain/snow mix or all snow could also return to the
valleys. Through Thursday night moderate precipitation amounts a
decent potential for some locations, before the better threat of
precipitation retreats to those mountains by the end of the week.
One possible impact includes moderate to heavy snow in the
mountains. Whether it will impact the passes will depending on
precise snow levels. Right now the better potential for impacts in
the passes will be on the backside of the system, toward Friday
into Saturday when colder air moves in. A second impact to look
for is rises on area waterways and possible flooding (if only
minor), especially in poor drainage areas and near small
creeks/streams. The NWRFC forecasts already have rises projected
on some of the mainstem rivers; nothing near flooding right now
but rises nonetheless. Stay tuned. Details will become clearer as
we get more information over the next several days. /J. Cote`
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A band of precipitation will exit eastern WA and push
into the ID panhandle through 08Z. This will leave a very moist
boundary layer across much of the region for the rest of tonight.
KEAT will be tricky as 8-10 kts of wind will result in varying
visibility from IFR to VFR and SCT-OVC cigs between 100-300 ft
agl. Confidence also low around the KMWH TAF site, but clearing
skies aloft is expected to result in fog forming between 08-10Z
tonight. Confidence is moderate to high for low stratus and fog
at the KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW and KLWS TAF sites through SUnday
morning. Expect IFR/LIFR conditions with improving conditions
occurring through the afternoon. /SVH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 37 29 37 28 39 33 / 20 10 10 0 10 20
Coeur d`Alene 36 29 37 27 39 33 / 30 10 10 0 10 20
Pullman 40 30 40 29 43 35 / 30 10 10 0 10 20
Lewiston 44 33 44 31 48 37 / 20 10 10 0 0 10
Colville 36 28 35 25 37 32 / 20 10 10 0 20 30
Sandpoint 36 29 35 26 36 32 / 30 10 10 0 10 20
Kellogg 35 28 34 26 38 33 / 70 20 10 10 10 30
Moses Lake 41 28 40 28 40 33 / 10 10 10 0 20 30
Wenatchee 40 29 37 29 37 33 / 10 10 10 10 20 30
Omak 36 24 33 27 35 33 / 10 10 10 10 20 30
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1037 PM PST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of rain and snow will linger into tonight as a low pressure
system slowly exits the region. High pressure should produce
mainly dry conditions early next week, with the potential for some
fog, before more valley rain and mountain snow returns.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The upper level trough of lower pressure is swinging its way
across extreme eastern WA and into the ID Panhandle late this
evening. Latest radar data shows a band of mostly valley rain and
mountain snow from the WA Palouse up into the Northeast Mtns over
into the central and northern ID Panhandle. The HRRR model shows
this band clearing much of eastern WA around midnight tonight.
Showers will likely continue over the ID Panhandle through the
early morning hours on Sunday before dissipating by the afternoon.
This will result in another 2-4 inches of snow over Lookout Pass
and winter travel conditions expected. Fog will also continue to
be a concern into the morning hours. Mid level clouds will
decrease from west to east overnight. This will allow for the
potential of greater fog formation across the basin and into the
west plains of Spokane. Enough wind in the boundary layer should
prevent fog becoming too dense and may even result in more of a
very low stratus deck. /SVH
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A band of precipitation will exit eastern WA and push
into the ID panhandle through 08Z. This will leave a very moist
boundary layer across much of the region for the rest of tonight.
KEAT will be tricky as 8-10 kts of wind will result in varying
visibility from IFR to VFR and SCT-OVC cigs between 100-300 ft
agl. Confidence also low around the KMWH TAF site, but clearing
skies aloft is expected to result in fog forming between 08-10Z
tonight. Confidence is moderate to high for low stratus and fog
at the KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW and KLWS TAF sites through SUnday
morning. Expect IFR/LIFR conditions with improving conditions
occurring through the afternoon. /SVH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 34 37 31 37 29 39 / 50 20 10 10 0 10
Coeur d`Alene 35 37 30 37 28 40 / 70 30 10 10 10 20
Pullman 36 40 30 38 30 42 / 60 30 10 10 0 10
Lewiston 39 47 34 43 33 49 / 50 20 10 10 0 10
Colville 31 37 28 35 27 37 / 40 20 10 10 0 20
Sandpoint 32 36 29 35 28 37 / 80 30 10 10 0 10
Kellogg 34 36 30 35 29 39 / 90 50 20 20 10 10
Moses Lake 34 41 27 38 30 38 / 10 0 10 10 0 20
Wenatchee 33 39 27 37 31 37 / 10 0 10 10 10 30
Omak 28 34 24 33 30 35 / 10 10 10 10 10 40
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
915 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WAS ONGOING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...AND AMOUNTS AS
HIGH AS 4 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN WAUSHARA COUNTY. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW...WITH SNOWFALL RATES EXCEEDING AN INCH AN HOUR...
SHOULD EXIT NE/EC WI BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT A SECONDARY VORT
MAX WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER INCH OR TWO TO THIS REGION OVERNIGHT.
HAVE BUMPED SNOWFALL TOTALS TO 4-6 INCHES FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM WAUTOMA TO SHAWANO TO MARINETTE...WITH AMOUNTS DROPPING
OFF TO 2-3 INCHES OVER MUCH OF NC/FAR NE WI. NO CHANGES TO THE
HEADLINES NOW...THOUGH GIVING SOME CONSIDERATION TO EXTENDING THE
EXPIRATION TIME TO INCLUDE THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR WORK/SCHOOL.
WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE NEW MODEL DATA AND SEE IF THIS CHANGE IS
WARRANTED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
PCPN IS FILLING IN RAPIDLY AND SPREADING INTO OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...IN RESPONSE TO THE POTENT NEGATIVELY-TILTED S/W
TROF LIFTING OUT OF NORTHERN IL. MOST PLACES APPEAR TO BE GETTING
AN HOUR OR SO OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AT ONSET BEFORE DEEP SATURATION
AND A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OCCURS. NORTHERN WI MAY STILL HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS BEFORE
COMPLETELY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW...SO THEY WILL LIKELY SEE A LIGHT
GLAZING OF ICE INTO THE EVENING. RADAR/SATL AND MESO-MODELS ALL
SUPPORT THE HEAVIEST SNOW MOVG THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE
FCST AREA (ROUGHLY SE OF A LINE FROM MNM-Y50) THROUGH MIDNIGHT...
WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW LIKELY IN THIS REGION.
SUSPECT WE`LL SEE SOME INCH AN HOUR SNOWFALL RATES IN THE FOX
VALLEY/LKSHR AREAS DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING. FARTHER
NORTHWEST...SNOW INTENSITY SHOULD NOT BE AS GREAT...BUT LIGHT
ICING FOLLOWED BY 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS STILL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
THE ADVISORY. WILL LIKELY SEE WIDESPREAD 3-4 INCH TOTALS IN THE
FOX VALLEY/LKSHR AREAS...WITH LOCAL 5 INCH AMOUNTS...BEFORE
THE SNOW TAPERS OFF TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TURNING NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHILE ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS SITUATED
FROM SOUTHWEST TO EAST-CENTRAL WI. NORTH OF THIS LATTER TROUGH...IN
A REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AROUND 850MB...A SWATH OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE FOX VALLEY AND ACROSS
CENTRAL WI. NO REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ON THE ROADWAYS
HOWEVER...AND INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT SLICK SPOTS REMAIN CONFINED
TO UNTREATED SURFACES. STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISSUES RELATED TO
FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FOX VALLEY. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW CONTINUED GROWTH OF THE LOW
LEVEL SATURATED LAYER. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING AS A
RESULT...BUT PLACE HEAVIER EMPHASIS ON THE SNOWFALL ARRIVING
TONIGHT. THE SNOW IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER IOWA AS
INDICATED BY THE STRENGTHENING RADAR RETURNS. AS THE LOW OVER
MISSOURI CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST TONIGHT...THE MAIN FOCUS
REMAINS ON IMPACTS FROM THE ANTICIPATED SNOWFALL.
TONIGHT...MODELS AGREE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM
THE QUAD CITIES TO LAKE HURON TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE LOW...MODERATE
QG FORCING ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL BRING AN INTENSIFYING AREA
OF SNOW NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE. THE
SYSTEM HAS SEVERAL THINGS GOING FOR IT...INCLUDING STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7 C/KM OVER EAST-CENTRAL WI...AND VERY GOOD
UPWARD MOTION IN A RELATIVELY SHALLOW DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
ALTHOUGH THE COLUMN WILL HAVE A NEAR ISOTHERMAL LAYER BETWEEN -5C
AND 0C AT THE START OF THE EVENING...A COOLING THERMAL PROFILE THIS
EVENING SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS AS THE MAIN
BRUNT OF THE STORM ARRIVES. THE MESO MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
TIMING SOME...BRINGING THE MAIN AREA OF SNOWFALL BETWEEN 0-3Z OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI...AND BETWEEN 03-06Z OVER FAR NORTHERN WI.
THE BEST FORCING/MOISTURE/INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE FROM CENTRAL
TO NE WI WHERE WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 2-5 INCHES LOOKS POSSIBLE.
LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH...IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE.
ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL LATE THIS EVENING...LIGHT SNOW
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING...THOUGH WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT LATE INTO
THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.
TUESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING...BUT THE COMMA HEAD
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWLY ROTATING ACROSS THE REGION. PROGGED
SOUNDINGS LOOK NEARLY SATURATED THROUGH THE COLUMN FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING...SO THINK LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE...AND WILL
INCREASE CHANCES. ANY ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
AMOUNTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE VILAS COUNTY SNOW BELT WHERE
TRAJECTORIES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT. THE SNOW WILL
EXIT MOST PLACES DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR THE SNOW BELT.
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. A COUPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH LACK OF
MOISTURE SHOULD MAKE FOR MODEST AMOUNTS. PROBABLY AN INCH OR TWO IN
THE FAR NORTH WITH AN INCH OR LESS FURTHER SOUTH.
ZONAL FLOW FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LOW APPROACHES
FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AS THAT SYSTEM APPROACHES UPPER FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHWEST AND MOISTURE STARTS TO TRANSPORT NORTH TOWARDS
THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. AN ARCTIC HIGH OVER MUCH OF CANADA
SHOULD PROVIDE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR OVER WISCONSIN MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE DIFFERENCES IN WHAT HAPPENS NEXT WITH A
WINTER STORM POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES OR
MIDWEST. PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES ARE LIKELY AS WELL AS TIMING
DIFFERENCES AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS WIDESPREAD SNOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. AN HOUR OR TWO OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR AT ONSET...BEFORE DEEPER SATURATION CHANGES
THE PCPN TO SNOW. THE SNOW INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST
IN THE FOX VALLEY/LKSHR AREAS THIS EVG...WHEN POCKETS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING FOR SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN
FLIGHT CONDITIONS. NW WINDS WILL PICK UP AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT
LATE TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KTS EXPECTED.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ005-
010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........KIECKBUSCH
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
557 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
AND NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
PCPN IS FILLING IN RAPIDLY AND SPREADING INTO OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...IN RESPONSE TO THE POTENT NEGATIVELY-TILTED S/W
TROF LIFTING OUT OF NORTHERN IL. MOST PLACES APPEAR TO BE GETTING
AN HOUR OR SO OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AT ONSET BEFORE DEEP SATURATION
AND A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OCCURS. NORTHERN WI MAY STILL HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS BEFORE
COMPLETELY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW...SO THEY WILL LIKELY SEE A LIGHT
GLAZING OF ICE INTO THE EVENING. RADAR/SATL AND MESO-MODELS ALL
SUPPORT THE HEAVIEST SNOW MOVG THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE
FCST AREA (ROUGHLY SE OF A LINE FROM MNM-Y50) THROUGH MIDNIGHT...
WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW LIKELY IN THIS REGION.
SUSPECT WE`LL SEE SOME INCH AN HOUR SNOWFALL RATES IN THE FOX
VALLEY/LKSHR AREAS DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING. FARTHER
NORTHWEST...SNOW INTENSITY SHOULD NOT BE AS GREAT...BUT LIGHT
ICING FOLLOWED BY 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS STILL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
THE ADVISORY. WILL LIKELY SEE WIDESPREAD 3-4 INCH TOTALS IN THE
FOX VALLEY/LKSHR AREAS...WITH LOCAL 5 INCH AMOUNTS...BEFORE
THE SNOW TAPERS OFF TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TURNING NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHILE ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS SITUATED
FROM SOUTHWEST TO EAST-CENTRAL WI. NORTH OF THIS LATTER TROUGH...IN
A REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AROUND 850MB...A SWATH OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE FOX VALLEY AND ACROSS
CENTRAL WI. NO REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ON THE ROADWAYS
HOWEVER...AND INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT SLICK SPOTS REMAIN CONFINED
TO UNTREATED SURFACES. STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISSUES RELATED TO
FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FOX VALLEY. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW CONTINUED GROWTH OF THE LOW
LEVEL SATURATED LAYER. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING AS A
RESULT...BUT PLACE HEAVIER EMPHASIS ON THE SNOWFALL ARRIVING
TONIGHT. THE SNOW IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER IOWA AS
INDICATED BY THE STRENGTHENING RADAR RETURNS. AS THE LOW OVER
MISSOURI CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST TONIGHT...THE MAIN FOCUS
REMAINS ON IMPACTS FROM THE ANTICIPATED SNOWFALL.
TONIGHT...MODELS AGREE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM
THE QUAD CITIES TO LAKE HURON TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE LOW...MODERATE
QG FORCING ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL BRING AN INTENSIFYING AREA
OF SNOW NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE. THE
SYSTEM HAS SEVERAL THINGS GOING FOR IT...INCLUDING STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7 C/KM OVER EAST-CENTRAL WI...AND VERY GOOD
UPWARD MOTION IN A RELATIVELY SHALLOW DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
ALTHOUGH THE COLUMN WILL HAVE A NEAR ISOTHERMAL LAYER BETWEEN -5C
AND 0C AT THE START OF THE EVENING...A COOLING THERMAL PROFILE THIS
EVENING SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS AS THE MAIN
BRUNT OF THE STORM ARRIVES. THE MESO MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
TIMING SOME...BRINGING THE MAIN AREA OF SNOWFALL BETWEEN 0-3Z OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI...AND BETWEEN 03-06Z OVER FAR NORTHERN WI.
THE BEST FORCING/MOISTURE/INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE FROM CENTRAL
TO NE WI WHERE WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 2-5 INCHES LOOKS POSSIBLE.
LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH...IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE.
ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL LATE THIS EVENING...LIGHT SNOW
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING...THOUGH WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT LATE INTO
THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.
TUESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING...BUT THE COMMA HEAD
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWLY ROTATING ACROSS THE REGION. PROGGED
SOUNDINGS LOOK NEARLY SATURATED THROUGH THE COLUMN FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING...SO THINK LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE...AND WILL
INCREASE CHANCES. ANY ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
AMOUNTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE VILAS COUNTY SNOW BELT WHERE
TRAJECTORIES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT. THE SNOW WILL
EXIT MOST PLACES DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR THE SNOW BELT.
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. A COUPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH LACK OF
MOISTURE SHOULD MAKE FOR MODEST AMOUNTS. PROBABLY AN INCH OR TWO IN
THE FAR NORTH WITH AN INCH OR LESS FURTHER SOUTH.
ZONAL FLOW FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LOW APPROACHES
FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AS THAT SYSTEM APPROACHES UPPER FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHWEST AND MOISTURE STARTS TO TRANSPORT NORTH TOWARDS
THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. AN ARCTIC HIGH OVER MUCH OF CANADA
SHOULD PROVIDE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR OVER WISCONSIN MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE DIFFERENCES IN WHAT HAPPENS NEXT WITH A
WINTER STORM POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES OR
MIDWEST. PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES ARE LIKELY AS WELL AS TIMING
DIFFERENCES AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS WIDESPREAD SNOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. AN HOUR OR TWO OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR AT ONSET...BEFORE DEEPER SATURATION CHANGES
THE PCPN TO SNOW. THE SNOW INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST
IN THE FOX VALLEY/LKSHR AREAS THIS EVG...WHEN POCKETS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING FOR SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN
FLIGHT CONDITIONS. NW WINDS WILL PICK UP AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT
LATE TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KTS EXPECTED.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ005-
010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........KIECKBUSCH
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
532 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
WELL..WE HAD TO WAIT A WHILE IN SOME AREAS BUT THE FORCING IS
FINALLY HITTING US WITH A RAPID INCREASE IN WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA.
THE LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS /800MB/ HAS BEEN WORKING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA FROM AUSTIN MN TO WABASHA TO TREMPEALEAU
COUNTY FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SUPERCOOLED
LIQUID CLOUD. THIS WAS THE INTENT OF THE ADVISORY...BUT THE LIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THAT FGEN AREA HAS BEEN TOO LITTLE TO GROW THE
CLOUD DROPS TO DRIZZLE SIZE TO FALL. THUS...THE ADVISORY START
TIME WAS TOO EARLY EAST AND SOUTH OF LA CROSSE. OVERALL THERE IS
SURPRISINGLY LITTLE TRAVEL IMPACT IN THE FZDZ AREA WITH MAIN
ROADS IN NORMAL DRIVING CONDITION PER DOT DUE TO TREATMENTS.
SHERIFFS ARE REPORTING GLAZING ON OTHER SURFACES LIKE VEHICLES.
STARTING TO SEE GOOD CLOUD TOP COOLING IN NORTHERN IA VIA GOES IR
AS WELL AS KDVN RADAR LIGHTING UP WITH DRIZZLE OVER THE PAST HOUR
OR SO. THIS IS SHIFTING INTO SOUTHWESTERN WI. CORRELATION
COEFFICIENTS ARE NEAR 1 AND SHOW THE DRIZZLE WELL...SAME AS SIGNAL
AS FZDZ TO THE NW OF KLSE. CLOUD TOP COOLING REGION IN NORTHERN IA
IS DEEPER ICE AND SNOW IS BEING OBSERVED THERE...SOMETHING A
CONSENSUS OF SHORT TERM MODELS NAILED HOURS AGO. AT THAT TIME...WE
HAD ADJUSTED THE SNOW FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT AXIS FROM ABOUT
KCCY-KLSE. THIS AXIS IS A DEVELOPING SECOND FRONTOGENESIS AREA
/600-800MB/ THAT WILL TEND TO TAKE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS
IT SHIFTS INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI PER 25.19Z RAP GUIDANCE AND OBS.
SO...WE SHOULD SEE THE CURRENT BAND SHIFT NORTHEAST TO KLSE...THEN
TOWARD KISW. IT SHIFTS QUICKLY...IT SEEMS OUTLIER /HIGHER/ SNOW
TOTALS ARE NOT SUPPORTED. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THAT
MAX SNOW AXIS. OVERALL THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS STILL ON A 2-3 INCH
SNOW FROM NERN IA INTO CENTRAL WI.
WHILE OUR FORECAST MESSAGE REMAINS A CHANGE TO SNOW...WE COULD SEE
FZDZ CONTINUE AWAY FROM THIS BAND FOR 2-3 HOURS YET UNTIL MAIN
UPPER LOW COMES IN. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE NOW KICKING
IN PER POTENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND QG FORCING...AND DEEP
SATURATION COULD JUST OCCUR THROUGH THE LAYER TOO. SO...WILL
CONTINUING THE MESSAGE OF FZDZ/SNOW TO ALL SNOW IS APPROPRIATE.
CONTINUED THE DRIFTING SNOW FORECAST IN THE POST-LOW ENVIRONMENT
OVERNIGHT. ALSO...HAVE LINGERED FLURRIES THROUGH THE MORNING ON
TUESDAY WITH TROUGH OVERHEAD AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES I THE LOW-
LEVELS. THINKING BOUNDARY LAYER ROLLS WILL ALLOW FOR ON/OFF LIGHT
SNOW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN WEDNESDAY WITH A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IN NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. TIMING SEEMS TO
BE AN ISSUE WITH THE 25.12Z ECMWF SUGGESTING ABOUT A 6 HOUR FASTER
SOLUTION THAN THE U.S. MODELS AND A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
WAVE. OVERALL...MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS/LIFT MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
WI...BUT WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THE 300-500MB QG CONVERGENCE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL WI...HAVE
INCREASED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THERE A BIT. IT LOOKS LIKE A
QUICK HITTER INCH OR LESS IF IT PRECIPITATES. THERE IS SUGGESTION
OF MORE ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND WILL NEED
TO WATCH THIS OVER THE COMING DAYS FOR SNOW CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH.
TRANSITION BEGINS LATE IN THE WEEK TOWARD MORE ZONAL FLOW AND THEN
LARGE SCALE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS IS
MAKING FOR A LOW PREDICTABILITY PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. STUCK WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS UNTIL A
BETTER TARGET CAN BE SEEN. OVERALL...AN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 532 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS TRANSITIONED OVER TO LIGHT SNOW WITH
THIS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
SURFACE LOW WAS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN ILLINOIS AND THE
25.18Z NAM INDICATES IT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
LATE TONIGHT AND OFF INTO CANADA EARLY TUESDAY. LOCAL RADAR IS
SHOWING THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS OVER SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WITH THE BACK EDGE FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.
WITH A NORTHEAST MOVEMENT...EXPECT THE HEAVIER SNOW TO STAY TO
THE EAST OF KLSE BUT THERE COULD BE TIMES WHEN THE VISIBILITY
DROPS TO IFR FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING. NOT EXPECTING THE
VISIBILITY TO DROP MUCH IF AT ALL FOR KRST BEFORE STARTING TO COME
UP BY THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENING AS THE SNOW BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA. EXPECTING THE LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES LATE
TONIGHT WITH THESE FLURRIES THEN ENDING TUESDAY MORNING. THE
GRADIENT WILL ALSO TIGHTEN UP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AND WITH
A PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO SET
UP TO ALLOW GUSTS FOR BOTH SITES OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CEILINGS
WILL BE MVFR TO IFR THIS EVENING AND THEN SHOW SOME SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR FOR BOTH SITES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ079-
086>088-094>096.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR IAZ008>011-
018-019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...04
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A COLD
FRONT POSITIONED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN COLORADO. AFTER
SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WI...VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS THE NORTH...SO THINKING THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT WILL REMAIN ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARDS THE REGION ON MONDAY...POTENTIAL OF
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW IS MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN.
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS KANSAS WHILE AN
INVERTED TROUGH SHARPENS OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AHEAD
OF THESE FEATURES...SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST
WHILE WEAK WARM ADVECTION OCCURS ABOVE 850MB. AS A RESULT...THE LOW
STRATUS DECK WILL REMAINED TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION AND PROBABLY
LOWER SOME AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. A DRY WEDGE ABOVE THE
INVERSION WILL LIKELY PREVENT PRECIP CHANCES AND WILL STICK WITH A
DRY FORECAST. TEMPS WILL NOT FALL MUCH TONIGHT...AND MAY JUST
REMAIN STEADY NEAR THE LAKE DUE TO THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.
MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKE THE TURN NORTHEAST AND HEAD FROM
EASTERN KANSAS TO EASTERN IOWA. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL ALSO SHIFT
EAST OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY INTO SOUTHWEST TO NORTH-CENTRAL WI.
AS THESE SURFACE FEATURES DRAW CLOSER TO THE REGION...THE LOW LEVEL
SATURATED LAYER WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN...WHICH WILL PROMOTE INCREASING
CHANCES OF DRIZZLE THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...EXCEPT FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI. SOME SNOW COULD
MIX IN WITH THE DRIZZLE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHEN MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE DEEPENS AHEAD OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE ROTATING INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI WHERE
FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BECOME WIDESPREAD. SOME DISCUSSIONS TO ISSUE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO
ONSET OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...HOW HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS WILL BE
IF/WHEN FREEZING DRIZZLE ARRIVES IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL ISSUE AN
SPS INSTEAD...AND LET THE MIDNIGHT CREW TAKE ANOTHER LOOK. HIGHS 30-
35 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN
ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD COMBINE TO PRODUCE A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS NOT THAT
ABUNDANT BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IN
MOST AREAS. THEN CLIPPER SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOULD BRING ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL. 1 TO 3
INCHES PROBABLE WITH THOSE SYSTEM WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE
NORTH.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN INTERESTING
PATTERN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK THOUGH THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES
FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE A LARGE
ARCTICHIGH WILL RESIDE OVER CANADA WITH SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW
BRINGING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS A BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM OR TWO NEXT WEEK BUT HARD TO PREDICT
WHERE AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE WEST-
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. NORTH OF THIS LOW...LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP TONIGHT...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE INVERSION. AS A
RESULT...WIDESPREAD IFR AND MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN PRESENT FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN CIG HEIGHTS. SOME
DETERIORATION OF CIGS IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO LIFR/IFR RANGE.
THINKING PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL COME TO AN END OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MVFR VSBYS
IN MIST WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES THEN INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1054 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN GULF TO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE NORTHWEST...LOW PRESSURE IS
TRAVELLING EAST OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
OUTRUNNING THE LOWER CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS LOW...AND A WEDGE OF DRY
AIR FROM THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING IS LARGELY PREVENTING RADAR RETURNS
ABOVE 8KFT FROM REACHING THE GROUND. LOW CLOUDS MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...CLOUD
TRENDS AND SMALL PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVERHEAD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. THINKING THE LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN WI WILL EDGE
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. EVENTUALLY THOUGH...A LARGE SWATH OF LOW CLOUDS OVER
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WI WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE
ONLY EXTENDS UP TO AROUND 850MB ON PROGGED SOUNDINGS SO THINK THE
CHANCES OF FLURRIES OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE PROBABLY TOO LOW TO
MENTION. WITH ALL THE CLOUDS...LOWS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE DROPPING
A WEAK BOUNDARY OVER FAR NORTHERN WI. PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION.
PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE SATURATED LAYER GROWS A LITTLE
OVER NORTHERN WI DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WHICH MAY BECOME DEEP
ENOUGH FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES. WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW TO MATCH UP WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
OTHERWISE...SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE TEMPS. WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS...HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FREEZING DRIZZLE
OR DRIZZLE MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHCENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THEN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM
SOUTHERN KANSAS TOWARDS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE SYSTEM WON/T HAVE
MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT SEEMS DYNAMIC ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
A FEW INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER ACROSS EASTERN
WISCONSIN.
AFTER THAT SYSTEM GOES BY THE MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER FLOW TO
BECOME NORTHWEST. UPPER HEIGHTS ARE NOT VERY LOW SO IT WON/T BE
VERY COLD. CLIPPER SYSTEMS LOOK TO SWING BY NORTH OF HERE DURING
THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AND POOR
THERMODYNAMICS.
A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS
OF FEBRUARY WITH SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW...A BIG COLD HIGH TO OUR
NORTH AND ADEQUATE MOISTURE. THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST A SNOWSTORM
WITH THE ECMWF BEING QUITE A BIT WARMER WITH FREEZING RAIN OR
RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
MVFR CIGS OVER NC/C WI WILL SPREAD EAST...REACHING GRB/ATW/MTW
AROUND 09Z-10Z/SUNDAY. HAVE ADDED IFR CIGS AND SOME LIGHT FOG TO
THE WESTERN TAF SITES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS CIGS HAVE
LOWERED OVER MN AND WSTRN WI. EVENING SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM OF THE
REGION ONLY SHOWED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REACHING 870-850 MB...
MARGINAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT...SO HAVE REMOVED ANY
MENTION OF PCPN FROM THE RHI TAF FOR NOW. SOME MODEST IMPROVEMENT
IN CIG HEIGHTS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...BUT EXPECT FLIGHT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN IN THE MVFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE DAY AND
EVENING. CIGS MAY LOWER TO IFR AGAIN AT RHI LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
937 AM MST SUN JAN 24 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 AM MST SUN JAN 24 2016
ADJUSTED THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY. IT IS CURRENTLY SNOWING IN RAWLINS AND DIXON. STARTING TO
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ON THE GRASSY SURFACES BASED ON
WEBCAMS. AIR TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S ACROSS CARBON COUNTY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM A FEW MORE
DEGREES AND THEN REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOLAR
ISOLATION SHOULD KEEP ROAD TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING TODAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD STAY ABOVE ONE MILE WITH THE FALLING SNOW AND
WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE BIGGER CONCERN
WILL BE TONIGHT WHEN ROADS BECOME ICY AS AIR AND ROAD TEMPERATURES
DROP BELOW FREEZING WITH THE LOST OF SOLAR HEATING.
NO CHANGES TO WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. SNOW AMOUNTS
LOOK REASONABLE AT 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
COURSE IN THE MOUNTAINS. GIVEN THE CONVOLUTED NATURE OF THIS UPPER
TROUGH WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT
SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN SNOW FORECASTS BASED ON THE UPDATED MODELS
SOLUTIONS. THE LATEST 12Z GFS HAS BACKED DOWN ON QPF AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE SNOWY RANGE AS A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE NOW PROGGED
SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE NAM
AND GFS ARE BOTH SLIGHTLY MORE BULLISH ON PRECIPITATION ACROSS
CARBON COUNTY AND INTO THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE INITIALLY SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE ON INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE FEATURES
TODAY AS LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW RATES MAY AFFECT SNOW AMOUNTS
SOMEWHAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MST SUN JAN 24 2016
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS CONCERNS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE CWA. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING
INTO WESTERN WYOMING WITH DEEP MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE CWA VIA
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS OF 10Z. SURFACE OBS CONFIRMED THE ONSET OF
SNOW IN SWEETWATER COUNTY SEVERAL HOURS AGO...SO LIGHT SNOW SHOULD
HAVE ALREADY STARTED IN THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. THINKING
THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST MID MORNING WHEN PVA
INCREASES WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS. A COLD FROPA LATE THIS
AM WILL ALLOW SNOW TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH TIME...WITH SOME
DECENT SNOWFALL RATES POSSIBLE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AFTER 00Z
MON. PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING AS THE LAST BIT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES TO THE
SOUTHEAST.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE MOUNTAINS LOOK GOOD. OROGRAPHICS
DO NOT APPEAR QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY SNOW...BUT WE ARE STILL
LOOKING AT A VERY GOOD PATTERN FOR 8 TO 12 INCH SNOWS IN THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES WITH GOOD PVA AND DEEP MOISTURE. SOUNDINGS
FROM THE NAM AND GFS SHOW DEEP SATURATION ACROSS MUCH OF CARBON CO
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 6.0 DEG C/KM
THROUGH THE COLUMN. THIS INSTABILITY MAY VERY WELL PUSH THE HIGHER
PEAKS CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA. WPC GUIDANCE IS SHOWING AROUND 15
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION...SO LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON SNOTELS. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE ATTM AS LOW-LEVEL
FORCING IS WEAK AND JET DYNAMICS ARE POOR. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE
AN OUTLIER IN THE QPF DEPARTMENT...AROUND 0.2 INCH HIGHER THAN THE
GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
WE OPTED TO EXPAND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF CARBON COUNTY AS WELL. AS STATED EARLIER...INSTABILITY AND GOOD
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SOME HEAVIER SNOWFALL
RATES AT TIMES. UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT MAY ALSO OCCUR ON THE WESTERN/
NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE MOUNTAINS...SO CONFIDENCE IN 3-6 INCHES IS
FAIRLY HIGH FOR THE ADJACENT ZONES. MODELED QPF RANGES FROM 0.3 TO
0.5 INCHES IN THESE AREAS. LESS LLVL FORCING TO THE NORTH AND EAST
PRECLUDES ADVISORY ISSUANCE INTO THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF THE DAY SHIFT NEEDS TO EXPAND FURTHER. LARAMIE CAN
DO QUITE WELL IN NORTHWEST FLOW...SO WE MIGHT BE CONSERVATIVE WITH
OUR CURRENT FORECAST OF 2 INCHES. ANOTHER AREA OF INTEREST WILL BE
THE CHEYENNE RIDGE IN THE POST-FROPA ENVIRONMENT. WE COULD HAVE AN
AREA OF MARGINAL ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST WY INTO
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT WHILE SNOW IS
ONGOING FOR THE MOST PART...SO SIGNIFICANT BLSN IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. INCREASING WINDS ON MONDAY WOULD BE THE BIGGER ISSUE AS
A BELT OF 30 TO 40 KNOT H7-H8 FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE PLAINS. WIND
GUSTS TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ON MON
AM. WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH ON THE WYOMING SIDE...BUT MUCH
OF THE CWA WILL SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS. QUIET WEATHER SHOULD RETURN
FOR TUE WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MST SUN JAN 24 2016
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN THE EXTENDED.
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH STRONG WINDS AND SNOW POTENTIAL LATE.
STARTING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS
LOCATED FROM NEVADA UP THROUGH WESTERN MONTANA. WINDS NOT TOO
STRONG AT 700MB WITH GFS SHOWING 25-30KTS OVER THE CWA. NO
PROBLEMS WITH WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THOUGH...GFS FORECASTING A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION ON 700MB WINDS...INCREASING TO 40KTS. CRAIG TO CASPER
GRADIENT CLOSE TO 60MTRS AT 700MBS...SO WE NEED TO BE WATCHING FOR
STRONGER WINDS IN OUR WIND PRONE AREAS. NOT A REAL FAVORABLE WIND
DIRECTION THOUGH...SO THREAT SHOULD NOT BE TOO HIGH INTO THURSDAY.
GFS DOES SHOW A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM MONTANA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND PAINTS SOME QPF OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES.
HELD OFF ON POPS AS THE WINDS WILL BE DOWNSLOPING OFF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. ECMWF SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS AS WELL...SO THINK POPS WILL
BE DRY DURING THAT TIME.
PRETTY WARM 700MB TEMPERATURES OVER THE CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
GFS SHOWING +2C 700MB TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD BE
LOOKING AT MID 50 HIGHS FOR SOME LOCATIONS EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE FRIDAY AS 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO +4C DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
WINDS ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. GFS 700MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 50KTS BY 00Z SATURDAY...THEN UP TO 65KTS FRIDAY NIGHT
(06Z SATURDAY). WOULD EXPECT A WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND EVENT DURING
THIS TIME WITH 700MB CRAIG TO CASPER HEIGHT GRADIENT NEAR 80MTRS.
BIG CHANGES SATURDAY AS THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWA
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. 700MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -4C. ECMWF SHOWING
FRONT STALLING ALONG THE COLORADO/WYOMING BORDER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT NORTH ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES. STILL A WAYS OFF...BUT IF THE ECMWF FORECAST PANS OUT...WE
WILL BE DEALING WITH A MAJOR SNOW EVENT ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR
FROM SIDNEY TO ARLINGTON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST SUN JAN 24 2016
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AS SNOW MOVES INTO THE
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE HAS KRWL COMING DOWN
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN SNOW. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE LARAMIE RANGE AND IMPACT
AIRPORTS IN THE PANHANDLE. CONFIDENCE FAIRLY HIGH THAT THIS WILL
HAPPEN. LOOKS TO STAY DOWN THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
SNOW ENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 203 AM MST SUN JAN 24 2016
WIDESPREAD SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
NOTABLE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ALONG/W OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A COOL
AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MINIMAL FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST MONDAY FOR WYZ109>114.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
421 AM MST SUN JAN 24 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MST SUN JAN 24 2016
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS CONCERNS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE CWA. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING
INTO WESTERN WYOMING WITH DEEP MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE CWA VIA
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS OF 10Z. SURFACE OBS CONFIRMED THE ONSET OF
SNOW IN SWEETWATER COUNTY SEVERAL HOURS AGO...SO LIGHT SNOW SHOULD
HAVE ALREADY STARTED IN THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. THINKING
THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST MID MORNING WHEN PVA
INCREASES WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS. A COLD FROPA LATE THIS
AM WILL ALLOW SNOW TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH TIME...WITH SOME
DECENT SNOWFALL RATES POSSIBLE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AFTER 00Z
MON. PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING AS THE LAST BIT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES TO THE
SOUTHEAST.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE MOUNTAINS LOOK GOOD. OROGRAPHICS
DO NOT APPEAR QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY SNOW...BUT WE ARE STILL
LOOKING AT A VERY GOOD PATTERN FOR 8 TO 12 INCH SNOWS IN THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES WITH GOOD PVA AND DEEP MOISTURE. SOUNDINGS
FROM THE NAM AND GFS SHOW DEEP SATURATION ACROSS MUCH OF CARBON CO
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 6.0 DEG C/KM
THROUGH THE COLUMN. THIS INSTABILITY MAY VERY WELL PUSH THE HIGHER
PEAKS CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA. WPC GUIDANCE IS SHOWING AROUND 15
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION...SO LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON SNOTELS. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE ATTM AS LOW-LEVEL
FORCING IS WEAK AND JET DYNAMICS ARE POOR. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE
AN OUTLIER IN THE QPF DEPARTMENT...AROUND 0.2 INCH HIGHER THAN THE
GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
WE OPTED TO EXPAND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF CARBON COUNTY AS WELL. AS STATED EARLIER...INSTABILITY AND GOOD
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SOME HEAVIER SNOWFALL
RATES AT TIMES. UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT MAY ALSO OCCUR ON THE WESTERN/
NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE MOUNTAINS...SO CONFIDENCE IN 3-6 INCHES IS
FAIRLY HIGH FOR THE ADJACENT ZONES. MODELED QPF RANGES FROM 0.3 TO
0.5 INCHES IN THESE AREAS. LESS LLVL FORCING TO THE NORTH AND EAST
PRECLUDES ADVISORY ISSUANCE INTO THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF THE DAY SHIFT NEEDS TO EXPAND FURTHER. LARAMIE CAN
DO QUITE WELL IN NORTHWEST FLOW...SO WE MIGHT BE CONSERVATIVE WITH
OUR CURRENT FORECAST OF 2 INCHES. ANOTHER AREA OF INTEREST WILL BE
THE CHEYENNE RIDGE IN THE POST-FROPA ENVIRONMENT. WE COULD HAVE AN
AREA OF MARGINAL ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST WY INTO
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT WHILE SNOW IS
ONGOING FOR THE MOST PART...SO SIGNIFICANT BLSN IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. INCREASING WINDS ON MONDAY WOULD BE THE BIGGER ISSUE AS
A BELT OF 30 TO 40 KNOT H7-H8 FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE PLAINS. WIND
GUSTS TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ON MON
AM. WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH ON THE WYOMING SIDE...BUT MUCH
OF THE CWA WILL SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS. QUIET WEATHER SHOULD RETURN
FOR TUE WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MST SUN JAN 24 2016
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN THE EXTENDED.
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH STRONG WINDS AND SNOW POTENTIAL LATE.
STARTING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS
LOCATED FROM NEVADA UP THROUGH WESTERN MONTANA. WINDS NOT TOO
STRONG AT 700MB WITH GFS SHOWING 25-30KTS OVER THE CWA. NO
PROBLEMS WITH WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THOUGH...GFS FORECASTING A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION ON 700MB WINDS...INCREASING TO 40KTS. CRAIG TO CASPER
GRADIENT CLOSE TO 60MTRS AT 700MBS...SO WE NEED TO BE WATCHING FOR
STRONGER WINDS IN OUR WIND PRONE AREAS. NOT A REAL FAVORABLE WIND
DIRECTION THOUGH...SO THREAT SHOULD NOT BE TOO HIGH INTO THURSDAY.
GFS DOES SHOW A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM MONTANA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND PAINTS SOME QPF OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES.
HELD OFF ON POPS AS THE WINDS WILL BE DOWNSLOPING OFF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. ECMWF SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS AS WELL...SO THINK POPS WILL
BE DRY DURING THAT TIME.
PRETTY WARM 700MB TEMPERATURES OVER THE CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
GFS SHOWING +2C 700MB TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD BE
LOOKING AT MID 50 HIGHS FOR SOME LOCATIONS EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE FRIDAY AS 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO +4C DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
WINDS ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. GFS 700MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 50KTS BY 00Z SATURDAY...THEN UP TO 65KTS FRIDAY NIGHT
(06Z SATURDAY). WOULD EXPECT A WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND EVENT DURING
THIS TIME WITH 700MB CRAIG TO CASPER HEIGHT GRADIENT NEAR 80MTRS.
BIG CHANGES SATURDAY AS THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWA
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. 700MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -4C. ECMWF SHOWING
FRONT STALLING ALONG THE COLORADO/WYOMING BORDER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT NORTH ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES. STILL A WAYS OFF...BUT IF THE ECMWF FORECAST PANS OUT...WE
WILL BE DEALING WITH A MAJOR SNOW EVENT ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR
FROM SIDNEY TO ARLINGTON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST SUN JAN 24 2016
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AS SNOW MOVES INTO THE
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE HAS KRWL COMING DOWN
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN SNOW. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE LARAMIE RANGE AND IMPACT
AIRPORTS IN THE PANHANDLE. CONFIDENCE FAIRLY HIGH THAT THIS WILL
HAPPEN. LOOKS TO STAY DOWN THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
SNOW ENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 203 AM MST SUN JAN 24 2016
WIDESPREAD SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
NOTABLE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ALONG/W OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A COOL
AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MINIMAL FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM MST
MONDAY FOR WYZ109>114.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
255 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES MODERATE AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT TUESDAY THAT WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY ... THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FOCUS IS MORE IMPORTANTLY UPON THE
OFFSHORE STORM WHICH IF COMBINING WITH AN ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE
OUT OF THE E GREAT LAKES COULD USHER SOME ADVERSE WEATHER TO OUR
REGION. PERHAPS SOME SHOWERY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND ... THEN
LOOKING MILD AND WET INTO THE COMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BEGIN BEFORE DAYBREAK.
IT WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG THOUGH...ONLY TODAY. EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME READINGS
APPROACHING 50 DEGREES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. FARTHER WEST...INCREASING CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE EARLIER AND
LIMIT THE WARMUP...WITH READINGS MORE 38-45 DEGREES.
STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE THIS MORNING. THE 26/00Z GUIDANCE STILL HINTS AT A BRIEF
WINDOW OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING...AS LONG AS LOWER CLOUDS
DEVELOP FAST ENOUGH. BOTH 00Z GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS HINT THE AIR
MIGHT BE A TOUCH TOO DRY FOR THIS TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN. WILL
CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE HRRR AND RAP THIS MORNING FOR ADDITIONAL
CLUES.
GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY NATURE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURRING
THIS MORNING...WILL ONLY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
COVER THIS POSSIBILITY FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN MA.
INCREASING HUMIDITY IN STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY DUE TO THE POTENT JET CONVERGENCE. A COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT SHOULD NOT QUITE
GET HERE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SHOWER THREAT WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE THIS EVENING AS
A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. MAJORITY OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CT/RI AND SE MA THIS EVENING. NOT CONVINCED SHOWERS WILL BE ALL
THAT WIDESPREAD...DESPITE THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH THE COLD
FRONT. ANY SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT WITH
THE FRONT. MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN QUICKLY FROM THE NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE COLDER AIR WILL NOT BE AS QUICK. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND OUR NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS FOR LATE
JANUARY.
WEDNESDAY...
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
IT WILL ALSO MEAN TEMPERATURES WHICH DO NOT RISE MUCH FROM THE
MORNING LOW. SHOULD BE MAINLY A DRY DAY...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT A STRAY FLURRY OR TWO ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES
AS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY SPILL INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS ...
- QUIET DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
- MONITORING A PASSING SET OF STORM SYSTEMS THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
- CLIPPER DISTURBANCE WITH SHOWERY WEATHER SATURDAY AND OVERNIGHT
- LOOKING QUIET AND DRY FOR SUNDAY
- A SERIES OF INSIDE-RUNNER DISTURBANCES FOR NEXT WEEK
*/ OVERVIEW ...
WARMER-WETTER PATTERN INDICATIONS IN THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. DECENT
SIGNAL OF THE STRATOSPHERIC POLAR VORTEX SHIFTING TO THE OPPOSITE-
HALF OF THE N HEMISPHERE. STRONGLY +NAO/+AO TREND WITH A +PNA TREND
RETAINED. WEAK MJO IN THE 3/4 STATE. NO FORECAST INDICATIONS OF DOWN-
STREAM BLOCKING.
OVERALL AN UNFAVORABLE PATTERN FOR ANY INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR S.
WITH NEIGHBORING SEA-SURFACE-TEMPERATURES ABOVE-NORMAL ... AND
PERHAPS A SHIFT IN THE STORM TRACK TO EITHER THE SW-CONUS OR MORE
ZONAL ... BETTER AREAS OF BAROCLINICITY SEEMINGLY SHIFT N/W TOWARDS
THE E GREAT LAKES / ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY ... ESPECIALLY SO WITH
THE EXPECTATION OF A MELTING SNOW PACK ... AS THERE IS A GREATER
POTENTIAL OF WARMER AIR ENCROACHING N.
ENSEMBLE MEAN PREFERENCE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. AN ALTERATION
IN THE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH THE STORM-TRACK SHIFTING
MORE TOWARDS INSIDE-RUNNERS.
*/ DISCUSSION ...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ...
LESSENING NW-FLOW AS WINDS VEER S BENEATH AN INCREASING INFLUENCE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. AIRMASS MODERATING ALOFT ... SHOULD IT REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR ESPECIALLY THURSDAY IT IS MORE LIKELY WE WOULD END UP WARMER
THAN MODEL 2M TEMPERATURES ADVERTISE WITH HIGHS INTO THE 40S ...
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE LIKELIHOOD OF BARE-GROUND ... THE LATE-
JANUARY SUN ANGLE ... AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW TOWARDS THE LATER-
HALF OF THE DAY. AGAIN ... CLOUD DEPENDENT.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ...
26.0Z OPERATIONAL GFS / EC AND 26.0Z GEFS SIGNAL A SWING AND A MISS
AS TO A POTENTIAL OFFSHORE STORM AS N/S-STREAMS PHASE FURTHER DOWN-
STREAM. THOUGH SOME HESITATION EVALUATING THE 25.12Z ECENS. QUITE A
SPREAD AMONG ECENS MEMBERS IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERS IN COMPARISON THE AFOREMENTIONED SUITE OF 26.0Z GUIDANCE.
NOT READY TO GO ALL IN AS THERE IS SOME CONCERN WITH THE S-STREAM
DISTURBANCE BEING CAPTURED TO A DEGREE BENEATH LOWERING HEIGHTS
PARENT TO A NEGATIVELY-TILTING H5 TROUGH. THINKING WE ARE NOT OUT OF
THE WOODS YET. SOME ECENS PROBABILISTIC INDICATIONS OF POTENTIAL
IMPACTS TO S/E-PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND WITH RAIN ALONG THE COASTS
AND MIXED-PRECIPITATION TYPES OVER NEIGHBORING S/E INTERIOR. AND AS
PRIOR FORECASTERS HAVE ALLUDED TO ... THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
INVERTED TROUGH LINKING THE TWO DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE NE-CONUS
PRIOR TO PHASING DOWNSTREAM /THE 26.0Z EC IS PICKING UP ON THIS TO
SOME DEGREE ACROSS E-MAINE/.
KEEP IN MIND WE ARE STILL 3 TO 4 DAYS OUT FROM THE FORECAST TIME-
FRAME AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY HAS NOT YET BEEN WELL-SAMPLED BY LAND-
BASED OBSERVATIONAL NETWORKS. LIKE TO EXERCISE SOME LEVEL OF
CAUTION BY KEEPING WITH A LOW RISK OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
AT A MINIMUM ... WILL SEE LIGHT PRECIPITATION OUTCOMES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SWEEPING N-STREAM DISTURBANCE AND ACCOMPANYING CONTINENTAL-
MARITIME AIRMASS WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. MAY NEED TO
MONITOR FOR THE PRESENCE OF ICE WITHIN THE COLUMN. IN THIS SCENARIO
MOST OF THE FOCUS WOULD BE ALONG THE W-SLOPES OF HIGH TERRAIN.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ALONG WITH PREVAILING S-WINDS. MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND YIELDING WARMER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ...
THOUGH NOT APPEARING RECORD BREAKING JUST YET. CLIPPER-LOW SWEEPS IN
TOWARDS THE LATER-HALF OF THE DAY AND EXITING OVERNIGHT. RAIN / SNOW
OUTCOMES POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATER FOCUS ACROSS THE W-SLOPES OF HIGH
TERRAIN.
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK ...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SERIES OF INSIDE-RUNNER STORM SYSTEMS
WITH ONE DURING THE EARLY WEEK AND ANOTHER AROUND MIDWEEK. A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
AMONG ENSEMBLE / OPERATIONAL MEMBER FORECASTS. KEEPING WITH ENSEMBLE
MEANS ... DOES APPEAR THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM WILL PACK A GREATER PUNCH
AS IT EVOLVES OUT OF THE SW-CONUS. PER TRENDS AND EVALUATING CIPS
ANALOGS ... THERE DOES APPEAR THE GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOWERING VFR CIGS FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL/W MA AND N CT THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE. STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO AREAS OF LLWS...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR WITH LOCALIZED IFR
CIGS POSSIBLE. SCT SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT / ...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LIGHT W-WINDS VEERING S INCREASING LATE THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ... MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW-END VFR / MVFR CIGS. FOCUS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND TOWARDS S/E-
TERMINALS OF S NEW ENGLAND. RAIN / SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION WITH SW-FLOW BACKING NW.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ... MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR POSSIBLE AS SOME SHOWERY
WEATHER CROSS THE REGION. W-WINDS VEERING SW.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
SW WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS. EXPECTING SW GUSTS UP TO 30 KT DEVELOPING TUE
MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. A MODERATE RISK FOR GALES OVER THE EASTERN WATERS
CONTINUES...SO GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THERE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS. VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...WNW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. ROUGH SEAS WILL TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT / ...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LIGHT W-WINDS VEERING S INCREASING LATE THURSDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS OVER THE E-WATERS. WAVES DIMINISHING INITIALLY FROM EARLIER
ACTIVITY ... HOLDING AROUND 4 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ... MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE E GREAT
LAKES WILL LEAD TO A POTENTIAL MASHUP OF WEATHER OUTCOMES OVER THE
WATERS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. PERHAPS SOME VISIBILITY ISSUES
BUT AS THE STORM EXITS ANTICIPATE W/NW-WINDS TO RAMP UP WITH GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS BUILDING SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.
GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE. LOW RISK PRESENTLY FOR GALES.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ... MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS VEERING SW AHEAD OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. GUSTS OVERALL FORECAST UP TO 20 KTS. THIS WILL KEEP
SEAS FROM DIMINISHING QUICKLY. WILL HOLD WAVE HEIGHTS 4 TO 5 FEET
OVER A MAJORITY OF TIME ON THE OUTER WATERS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ250-254.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251-255-
256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...BELK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
156 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES MODERATE AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT TUESDAY THAT WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AN OCEAN STORM WILL RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY PASSING SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. AT THIS TIME...ODDS FAVOR MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW...BUT
A LARGER/MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT YET. AFTER A
SEASONABLY COOL DAY ON SATURDAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH JUST A FEW PASSING RAIN SHOWERS AT
TIMES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BEGIN BEFORE DAYBREAK.
IT WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG THOUGH...ONLY TODAY. EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME READINGS
APPROACHING 50 DEGREES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. FARTHER WEST...INCREASING CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE EARLIER AND
LIMIT THE WARMUP...WITH READINGS MORE 38-45 DEGREES.
STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE THIS MORNING. THE 26/00Z GUIDANCE STILL HINTS AT A BRIEF
WINDOW OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING...AS LONG AS LOWER CLOUDS
DEVELOP FAST ENOUGH. BOTH 00Z GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS HINT THE AIR
MIGHT BE A TOUCH TOO DRY FOR THIS TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN. WILL
CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE HRRR AND RAP THIS MORNING FOR ADDITIONAL
CLUES.
GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY NATURE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURRING
THIS MORNING...WILL ONLY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
COVER THIS POSSIBILITY FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN MA.
INCREASING HUMIDITY IN STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY DUE TO THE POTENT JET CONVERGENCE. A COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT SHOULD NOT QUITE
GET HERE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SHOWER THREAT WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE THIS EVENING AS
A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. MAJORITY OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CT/RI AND SE MA THIS EVENING. NOT CONVINCED SHOWERS WILL BE ALL
THAT WIDESPREAD...DESPITE THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH THE COLD
FRONT. ANY SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT WITH
THE FRONT. MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN QUICKLY FROM THE NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE COLDER AIR WILL NOT BE AS QUICK. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND OUR NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS FOR LATE
JANUARY.
WEDNESDAY...
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
IT WILL ALSO MEAN TEMPERATURES WHICH DO NOT RISE MUCH FROM THE
MORNING LOW. SHOULD BE MAINLY A DRY DAY...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT A STRAY FLURRY OR TWO ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES
AS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY SPILL INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* THU - DRY BUT TRENDING COOLER
* THU NGT/FRI - OCEAN STORM PROBABLY DELIVERS A GLANCING BLOW BUT
STILL A LOW RISK FOR A LARGER/MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
* SAT - SEASONABLY CHILLY WITH A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE
* SUN/MON - TURNING UNSEASONABLY MILD
DETAILS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
SEASONABLY CHILLY AIR WORKS BACK INTO THE REGION...BUT A TEMPORARY
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP US DRY. LOWS WED NIGHT MAINLY IN
THE TEENS ACROSS THE OUTLYING LOCATIONS...TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S
IN SOME OF THE URBAN CENTERS. HIGHS ON THU WILL BE WELL UP INTO THE
30S TO PERHAPS NEAR 40 IN A FEW LOCATIONS. WINDS SHOULD BE RATHER
LIGHT AND EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE...SO OVERALL NOT TOO BAD
OF A DAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
A VERY COMPLEX SETUP THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WE ARE WATCHING A
FAIRLY STRONG PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND HOW/IF IT IS ABLE
TO PHASE WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE
SAYS THAT IT PHASES A BIT TOO LATE/FAR ENOUGH EAST SPARING OUR
REGION A WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. KEEP IN MIND THOUGH WE
ARE ABOUT 96 HOURS OUT ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...SO IT WOULD
NOT TAKE TOO MUCH OF A CHANGE FOR AN EARLIER PHASE/LARGER
IMPACT...BUT RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP THAT A LOW PROBABILITY.
ALSO...WHILE MOST MODELS HAVE LITTLE IF ANY QPF OVER THIS
TIME...THERE IS AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING BACK TOWARDS ONTARIO
ESPECIALLY SHOWN BY THE ECMWF MODEL. THEREFORE...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF LATER MODELS RUNS START TO PICKUP ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW...PARTICULARLY FOR EASTERN SECTIONS.
MODELS QPF FIELDS OFTEN DO NOT PICKUP ON THESE SETUPS UNTIL THE LAST
MINUTE. SOMETHING WILL NEED TO WATCH EVEN IF THE OCEAN STORM DOES
END UP BEING A MISS...AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY LOOKS FAIRLY POTENT.
DEPENDING ON IF WE DO END UP RECEIVING A PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION...PROBABLY WILL BE SOME BOUNDARY LAYER ISSUES EARLY
ON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN...BUT THEY WOULD PROBABLY BE
OVERCOME FOR MOST AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
SATURDAY SHOULD START OFF DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS WELL UP INTO
THE 30S TO NEAR 40. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT WITH PERHAPS A FEW BRIEF PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL ALLOW FOR RISING HEIGHT
FIELDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE
40S SUN AND MON. ITS TOO EARLY TO SAY..BUT IF WE END UP WITH ENOUGH
SUNSHINE AND TIMING IS CORRECT...SOME LOCATIONS MAY GET ABOVE 50 ON
ONE OF THOSE DAYS. A FEW SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN FLOW MAY BRING A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DRY AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOWERING VFR CIGS FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL/W MA AND N CT THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE. STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO AREAS OF LLWS...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR WITH LOCALIZED IFR
CIGS POSSIBLE. SCT SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN MIXED PRECIP/SNOW DEPENDING ON IF AN OCEAN
STORM TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST.
SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
SW WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS. EXPECTING SW GUSTS UP TO 30 KT DEVELOPING TUE
MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. A MODERATE RISK FOR GALES OVER THE EASTERN WATERS
CONTINUES...SO GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THERE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS. VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...WNW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. ROUGH SEAS WILL TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
RESULT IN WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. UNCERTAINTY
ON WIND SPEEDS AND WILL DEPEND ON TRACK/STRENGTH OF OCEAN STORM. SCA
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS PROBABLY DEVELOP BY FRIDAY WITH A LOW RISK
FOR BRIEF GALES IF STORM GETS CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN EXPECTED.
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME BY LATE IN THE DAY OR EVENING
AS COLD ADVECTION DIMINISHES.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ250-254.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251-255-
256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/FRANK
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...BELK/FRANK
MARINE...BELK/FRANK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
112 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER JUST OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION MID WEEK WHICH MAY
STALL ALONG THE COAST AND KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD JUST OFF THE COAST TONIGHT.
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT MAY HELP LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING POTENTIAL. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
THE COAST WITH A DECOUPLED AIRMASS. THE HRRR SHOWS REDUCED
VISIBILITIES STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN CSRA INTO THE PEE DEE
REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY AHEAD OF FRONT IN THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A MODEST INCREASE
IN MOISTURE...MAINLY HIGH LEVEL. FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
WEST OF THE REGION. WARM ADVECTION SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. FRONT PARALLEL TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW SO EXPECTED TO BE SLOW
MOVING INTO REGION WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE PIEDMONT WHERE CONVERGENCE
STRONGEST. FRONT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. DEEP MOISTURE
SPREADING NORTHEAST FROM GULF OF MEXICO AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
MODERATELY STRONG AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS FOR LARGE
SCALE LIFT. IN-SITU WEDGE LIKELY DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOIST ADIABATIC. SO WILL CONTINUE
NEAR LIKELY POPS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND
FRONT AS NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH FRONT THAN PREVIOUS ECMWF.
LATEST SUPERBLEND POPS SUGGEST RAIN CHANCE THRU THURSDAY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE GEORGIA/CAROLINA COAST. WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY AND COOL TEMPERATURES. WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR WILL BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THROUGH DAYBREAK.
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY
FROM THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING MAINLY AT AGS...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO FOR
FOG AROUND SUNRISE. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD RESULTING IN HIGH CLOUDS
THICKENING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN AFTER 27/00Z.
AS THE CLOUDS LOWER SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH FROM 27/03Z ONWARD AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 9
KNOTS FROM 16Z THROUGH 27/03Z...THEN SUBSIDE TO 5 KNOTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
106 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 106 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE RISE AS SOME OF THE VALLEYS HAVE
BEGUN TO MIX OUT. RADAR RETURNS INDICATE A FEW INSTANCES OF
SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL. DESPITE A DRY
LAYER...IT SEEMS SOME PRECIP IS MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE AS
EVIDENCE FROM SOME OBS TO THE WEST. WILL EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF TONIGHT. FORTUNATELY...WARMER AIR IS
MOVING INTO THE AREA FAST ENOUGH THAT FREEZING PRECIP WILL NOT BE
AN ISSUE TONIGHT. THIS UPDATE WILL NOT REQUIRE A NEW ZFP AS THE
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1040 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
THE LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING WESTERN
PARTS OF THE CWA ATTM. MEANWHILE...THE EASTERN VALLEYS ARE
STARTING TO REBOUND FROM EVENING LOWS NEAR FREEZING AS THEIR
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO CLIMB. THIS IS ALLEVIATING CONCERNS FOR ANY
MORE THAN ISOLATED SPOTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT. AS
SUCH...HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO LIMIT THIS THREAT AND ALSO ADJUST
THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. AN UPDATED SET OF ZONES IS
FORTHCOMING...AS WELL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 840 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
01Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE INFLUENCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FRONT IS
STILL MOSTLY DRY AS IT IS CROSSING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WELL OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT A BAND OF LIGHT PCPN IS TRYING TO DEVELOP
OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS AND INTO EASTERN OHIO. WHILE THERE REMAINS
A DEEP SNOWPACK THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND A DECK OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE KEEPING MUCH OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY RATHER MILD WITH READINGS IN THE MID 40S ON
RIDGES AND INTO THE MORE OPEN AREAS. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE EASTERN
VALLEYS...UNDER A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
FALL TO NEAR FREEZING AND THIS COULD POSE A PROBLEM AS THE LIGHT
PCPN MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT. DO BELIEVE THAT THESE COLD SPOTS
WILL MIX OUT AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL PCPN...THOUGH. DEWPOINTS REMAIN
RATHER DRY...IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S...THROUGHOUT THE AREA BUT
HAVE BEEN COMING UP IN THE VALLEYS AND OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
CLOSER TO FREEZING. THESE WILL BE KEY TO ANY WETBULBING FOR SUB
FREEZING TEMPS AS THE LIGHT RAIN MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT. THE
LATEST HRRR KEEP THE PCPN ON OUR FRINGES THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS...BEFORE MOVING IN TOWARDS DAWN. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE HWO AND MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE SPS LATER
THIS EVENING. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THESE RIDGE TO
VALLEY DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ALONG WITH
NUDGING THE POP AND WX GRIDS TOWARD THE LATEST HRRR. THESE UPDATED
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 457 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A STACKED SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION HAS PRODUCED HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S THIS AFTERNOON...HELPING TO MELT A GOOD DEAL
OF THE RESIDUAL SNOWPACK FROM THIS PAST WEEKEND/S SYSTEM. WARMING
WILL CONTINUE FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING BEFORE LOW STRATUS MOVES IN
AND HALTS THE WARMUP. INCREASING MOISTURE THIS EVENING WILL RESULT
IN LOWERING CLOUD DECKS WITH RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH AND INTO THE BLUEGRASS REGION BY EARLY-MID EVENING.
PRECIPITATION GENERATION WILL BE AIDED BY A 35-45 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
SKIRTING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR HOW QUICKLY LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS DECOUPLE AND
SUBSEQUENTLY COOL THIS EVENING BEFORE THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OR TWO OF FREEZING RAIN ON ROAD
SURFACES AS RWIS DATA CURRENTLY SUGGEST ISOLATED PAVEMENT SURFACES
HOVERING AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PEAK LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64 AND ESPECIALLY NEARER THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY
AND TENNESSEE BORDER. DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW
IN NATURE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
SOUNDINGS APPEAR MOIST ENOUGH TO WARRANT CONTINUATION OF DRIZZLE FOR
A PERIOD BEFORE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE TROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT...THUS TRANSITIONING PRECIPITATION TO SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN ALONG WITH A FEW FLURRIES AS FURTHER COOLING
AND CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW TAKES PLACE. NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH
PRECIPITATION TO WORRY ABOUT ANY WINTRY TYPE ACCUMULATION FOR
NOW...BUT A FEW SLICK SPOTS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE ON ELEVATED
SURFACES AND ROADS FREE OF ANY RESIDUAL SALT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
A DEEP POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH...EXPANDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH TEXAS...WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
BEGINS DEEPENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE FIRST TROUGH
WILL PASS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AROUND
THE TIME THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME THE
PREDOMINATE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THIS SECONDARY TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT SHIFTS EAST...REACHING THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN EXITING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
GENERALLY INCREASING HEIGHTS SHOULD TAKE HOLD FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MORE ZONAL FLOW SETS IN FOR THE WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS ARE IN
SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THIS ZONAL FLOW...GENERALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
TO START THE DAY WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE HOLD AT THE
SURFACE DESPITE THE FIRST OF THE TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH. THE ONLY
IMPACT WE WILL LIKELY SEE FROM THIS IS CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND
DECREASING TEMPS...AS COOLER CANADIAN AIR GETS PULLED IN
ALOFT...WITH ONLY LOW TO MID 30S FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH MORE
SOUTHERLY WINDS TAKING HOLD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE
HIGH...AND TEMPERATURE BEGINNING A WARMING TREND ONCE MORE. THE
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE/TROUGH WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE
GREAT LAKE REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD
AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS. THIS WILL BRING POP POTENTIAL INTO THE CWA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...QPF REMAINS LOW...AND THERE IS AN OBVIOUS LACK OF
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO STICK WITH ONLY
SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS AND LIGHT QPF AT THIS TIME. THERE IS SOME
CONCERNS WITH PRECIP TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM...GIVEN THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE MOISTURE. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SNOW IN THE NORTH...HOWEVER IN
THE SOUTHWEST...LATEST GFS40 SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTING YET ANOTHER
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT. THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS FORECAST...AND GIVEN THAT IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT /DAY
4/...DECIDED TO PLAY THE SAFE ROUTE AND JUST MENTIONED RAIN AND
SNOW MIXTURE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH FOR AS WE NEAR ONSET.
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN KEEP WEATHER DRY
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE
REGION WILL BE IN RELATION TO THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS PRODUCED ALONG
THE ZONAL FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW...LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT 18Z SUNDAY...WILL HAVE A
STATIONARY FRONT WHICH WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST...PIVOTING ACROSS KY
SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH SOUTHERLY AIR WILL BE
PULLED IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE TO
CREATE DECENT WAA...AS WELL AS MOISTURE ADVECTION. THIS WILL LEAD
TO BOTH INCREASING TEMPS AND POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD SWATH OF PRECIP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. GIVEN THE WARM STATUS /HIGHS MAY
ACTUALLY REACH THE MID AND UPPER 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS/...STILL EXPECTING THIS ROUND OF PRECIP TO FALL IN THE
FORM OF RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MAINLY THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD BEFORE CEILINGS BEGIN TO FALL AS A FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS CIGS FALL TO IFR AND BELOW IN MANY
LOCATIONS. CIGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH
GUSTS TO 18 KNOTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN/GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1152 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 26/06Z TAFS...A BAND OF SHWRS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED TSTMS
HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A COLD FRONT GENERALLY ALONG AND SE OF A LINE
FROM KLFK TO KELD. THE FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. KLFK AND KMLU WILL BE THE PRIMARY TAF SITES AFFECTED.
PRECIP WILL LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX/N CNTRL LA THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HRS OF TUESDAY BEFORE EXITING THE AREA. MOST
TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN VFR BUT OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE RAIN. SOUTHERLY SFC
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE IN
SPEED TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS BUT
SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
/09/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016/
DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG A LINE FROM STRONG ARKANSAS TO ARCADIA
AND MANSFIELD LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST INTO LUFKIN TEXAS. CONVECTION
HAS BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG THE COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. HRRR MODEL
SUGGESTS CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS DEEP
EAST TEXAS AND INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. FOR THIS UPDATE...WENT
AHEAD AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 44 54 34 51 / 30 10 10 0
MLU 46 49 36 48 / 70 60 20 10
DEQ 33 51 25 51 / 10 0 0 0
TXK 38 52 31 49 / 10 10 0 0
ELD 42 51 31 48 / 30 20 10 0
TYR 40 53 33 52 / 10 10 10 0
GGG 41 54 34 52 / 20 10 10 0
LFK 47 55 37 55 / 60 30 30 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
123 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. PERIODIC SNOW SHOWER CHANCES AND SEASONALLY
COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MILD CONDITIONS AND VERY LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THERE
IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT A HANDFUL OF VALLEY LOCATIONS NORTH AND
EAST OF PITTSBURGH MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WHERE
WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED AND TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED TO BELOW
FREEZING AT PRECIPITATION ONSET...BUT IF THIS OCCURS IT WILL BE
VERY SHORT LIVED AS TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY CLIMB TO ABOVE
FREEZING IF THEY ARE NOT ALREADY THERE.
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY TO
INCREASE TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.
THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO COMPLETE ITS PASSAGE TUE. MOST OF THE
LIMITED PCPN IS EXPD TO BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MINIMAL SNOW
SHOWER CHCS AFTER FROPA TUE AFTN. TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING
TWEAKED NEAR TERM HRRR AND BLENDED GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES AND RIDGES ON WEDNESDAY.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT DUE TO LIMITED
MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING.
BUILDING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD SHUN AWAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW AVERAGE AND WERE CALCULATED
BASED ON A SUPER BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL RAISE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY...AFTER WHICH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL OVER
THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE HEADING TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM SLOW RISE IN FEW POINTS WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.
EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER 06Z. WITH WEAK FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL JET OFF THE DECK...HAVE CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVER
40 KTS JUST ABOVE WEAK INVERSION NEAR 1500 FT. EXPECT MVFR CIGS
TO REMAIN BEHIND FROPA TUESDAY.
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1155 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR TROFFING OVER
CENTRAL NAMERICA BTWN RIDGES ALONG THE W COAST AND OVER THE E. THERE
ARE TWO SHRTWVS OF INTEREST EMBEDDED IN THE SEPARATE NRN AND SRN
BRANCHES MAKING UP THIS TROF. AN AXIS OF SOME DEEPER MSTR AHEAD OF
THE NRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE DID BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SN TO THE
W...BUT INFLUX OF MID LVL DRY AIR ARND H7 AS SHOWN ON THE 12Z MPX
AND GRB RAOBS IS RESTRICTING THE LINGERING PCPN TO OVER WRN LK SUP.
MOIST LLVLS BLO THIS MID LVL DRY AIR AS DEPICTED ON THE 12Z GRB AND
APX RAOBS HAS RESULTED IN SOME FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DZ MAINLY
OVER THE CENTRAL CWA...AS DGZ IS WELL ABOVE THE SHALLOW MSTR WHERE
ICE CRYSTALS ARE ABSENT. LOOKING TO THE SW...A STRONGER NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHRTWV THAT CAUSED 12HR H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 100M IS MOVING
NEWD THRU MISSOURI TOWARD THE UPR MIDWEST.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON LINGERING FREEZING DZ
AND THEN ON ARRIVAL OF HIER POPS TNGT/NEED FOR ADDITIONAL HEADLINES
AS SRN BRANCH SHRTWV LIFTS INTO THE WRN LKS.
TNGT...SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD IS FCST TO REACH SCENTRAL LK MI ARND 06Z
TUE BEFORE MOVING TOWARD SE ONTARIO BY 12Z...WITHOUT PHASING WITH
THE NRN BRANCH SHRTWV FCST TO DIG INTO THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY. WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MSTR...EXPECT LINGERING FREEZING DZ TO
TRANSITION TO MAINLY SN DURING THE EVNG. BAND OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC/UPR DVGC/FAIRLY SLOPED BAND OF FGEN ON THE CYC SIDE OF THE
SHRTWV TRACK IS FCST TO IMPACT MAINLY THE SE HALF OF THE CWA. PERIOD
OF SHARPER DYNAMIC FORCING IS FCST TO LAST ABOUT 6 HRS. CONSIDERING
3G/KG SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FCST IN THE H7-75 LYR OVER THE FAR
SCENTRAL...SUSPECT SN ACCUMS WL REACH 3-4 INCHES OVER THE FAR SE CWA
WITH POOR SN/WATER RATIOS ASSOCIATED WITH HI/RATHER NARROW DGZ.
ALTHOUGH THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE IS
PROGGED TO MISS THE WRN ZNS...THE ARPCH OF THE NRN BRANCH SHRTWV/
ACCOMPANYING DYNAMIC FORCING LATE IN TANDEM WITH SHARPENING CYC NW
FLOW/DEEPENING MSTR AND H85 TEMPS FALLING TO ARND -11C...EXPECT
INCRSG POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE IN THAT AREA OVERNGT. AS FOR
HEADLINES...OPTED TO HOLD ON TO THE ADVY ISSUED BY THE NGT SHIFT FOR
MENOMINEE COUNTY...WHERE UP TO 4 INCHES STILL APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE
SRN HALF OF THE COUNTY PER EXPECTED DYNAMICS/MSTR AS DISCUSSED
ABOVE. TRANSIENT NATURE OF FORCING/GREATER MSTR REMAINING TO THE S
AND LACK OF PHASING BTWN SHRTWVS DOES NOT JUSTIFY EXTENDING
HEADLINES TO THE REST OF THE CWA. OPTED TO ISSUE AN SPS TO DISCUSS
THE FREEZING DRIZZLE/TRANSITION TO SN THIS EVNG WITH UP TO 3 INCHES
OVER MOST OF THE CWA DURING THE NGT.
TUE...NRN BRANCH SHRTWV IS FCST TO SLIDE INTO LOWER MI LATE IN THE
DAY. A PERIOD OF LK ENHANCED SN UNDER ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC/HIER RH AS WELL AS UPSLOPE/CYC NNW FLOW WL BE THE RULE NEAR LK
SUP AS H85 TEMPS FALL TOWARD -15C. BUT OVER THE SCENTRAL/SE CWA...
PRESENCE OF DOWNSLOPE NW WIND COMPONENT WL TEND TO OFFSET THIS
DYANMIC SUPPORT...RESULTING IN NO HIER THAN CHC POPS. FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHRTWV TO THE E IN THE AFTN...EXPECT THE COVERAGE/
INTENSITY OF THE SN SHOWERS TO DIMINISH EVEN NEAR THE LK OVER THE W
HALF WITH ARRIVAL OF MID LVL DRYING THAT WL BRING A TRANSITION TO
PURE LES. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS ON TUE WL BE UP TO ABOUT 3 INCHES.
INCLUDED MENTION OF THIS SUB ADVY LES IN THE SPS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF SNOW
WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
BROUGHT THE SYSTEM SNOW OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS WILL BE POSITIONED
OVER NORTHEASTERN QUEBEC WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTH AND WESTWARD
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. ALOFT...THE UPPER LEVEL
500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE U.P. NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE EVENING...LINGERING LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO BE AROUND -16C
WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. INVERSION
HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 6KFT OVER THE AREA AS THE AXIS
SLIDES THROUGH WHICH WILL KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
FALLING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT...WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST ALLOWING THE LAKE EFFECT
POTENTIAL TO SHIFT TO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND FAR EASTERN U.P.
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD AS A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY. ALOFT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AND SLIGHT RIDGING WILL SLIDE INTO THE U.P. DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE 850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -
6C...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND EVEN DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY BRING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED 500MB SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN MN WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE U.P. TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS/EC KEEP THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE CWA
MAINLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WHILE THE GEM/NAM HAVE THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION A BIT FARTHER SOUTH SLIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.P. EITHER WAY THE SYSTEM SNOW SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUICK AND
GENERALLY LIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF PROGGED TO BE AROUND 0.15
INCHES. SNOWFALL RATIOS SHOULD NOT BE THAT IMPRESSIVE EITHER AS THE
MOIST LAYER IN THE DGZ IS ELEVATED BETWEEN ABOUT 650MB AND 550MB
WITH FAIRLY GUSTY WINDS BELOW THAT LAYER...EFFECTIVELY HELPING TO
SHRED THE LARGER DENDRITES. THIS WOULD GIVE SNOW RATIOS AROUND 12 TO
15 ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...KEEPING THE SYSTEM SNOW TOTALS BETWEEN
1 TO 3 INCHES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION...SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE SQUEEZING EFFECT BETWEEN THE
KEWEENAW...ISLE ROYALE AND THE ARROWHEAD OF MN WILL INCREASE THE
GALE POTENTIAL IN THOSE AREAS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW
ALONG THE SHORELINES AS WELL. THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER HEAD AND 850MB TEMPERATURES
FALL TO NEAR -10 TO -11C...MAINLY FOR NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. THIS COULD GIVE THOSE AREAS AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. THE LOW AND TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A BIT DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN AND THE
INVERSION HEIGHT WILL BECOME VERY SHALLOW.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BECOME VERY LIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED...
INTERMITTENT CHANCE OF SNOW WILL DOMINATE THIS TIME PERIOD. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES IN A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
ON FRIDAY AND THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY LOW AT
THIS POINT...SO WILL STICK WITH A CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS TO AT
LEAST SHOW THE INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF SNOW FOR THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
WITH LOW PRES MOVING NE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...
-SN AND PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
OCNL LIFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO OCCUR AT KSAW/KIWD. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTN AT ALL TERMINALS AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN LINGER INTO THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY NORTH WINDS
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS
WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS LESS THAN 25 KNOTS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY A
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FROM
CANADA...BRINGING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE SHIFTING NORTH TO 30 KNOTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING
WINDS LESS THAN 25 KNOTS FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MIZ012.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
341 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
Post frontal stratus overspreads the area this morning with
temperatures below freezing. This stratus deck is only a few hundred
meters thick according to RAP forecast soundings, with dry air
within the dendritic growth layer, so snow flurries are unlikely
with any of this stratus through the day. There was some hope
earlier that perhaps these clouds would mix out today, given that
forecast soundings indicated a T/Td spread within the cloud bearing
level, but latest RAP soundings for today continue to indicate
saturation through the day, and thus no breaks in the cloud cover.
Considering how thin the saturated layer is, it wouldn`t be
inconceivable to see a few temporary breaks in the clouds through
the day. At any rate, the good news is that the surface ridge
responsible for this latest push of cold air will push to the east,
with the southerly wind bearing back side of the ridge moving in for
Wednesday. The switch in winds will allow for a gradual warm up for
the rest of the week, starting with 30s and 40s for Wednesday, then
warming into the 50s by Friday. H85 temperatures for Friday could
push the double digits (C), so with any half decent mixing in the
lower levels temperatures could conceivably shoot through the 50s
and land in the 60s, mainly along and south of Interstate 70. Even
north of I-70 there could be temperatures in the 50s. Given the
zonal mid level flow with little signs of any support for ascent
expect the remainder of the week to be dry. The weekend should see
temperatures remain well above seasonal averages, with dry weather
through at least Saturday. By Sunday hints of a pattern change
appears to be in the works.
By Sunday, both EC and GFS are indicating a deep western trough
carving its way into the otherwise zonal flow aloft. Ahead of this
trough a surface low will glide through the area, generally without
event, although north of the low there could be some very light
precipitation late Sunday into Monday. However, the bigger event
next week would be in the Monday-Tuesday time frame as the
previously mentioned trough ejects eastward. This trough has the
potential to cause some high impact winter weather across portions
of the Great Plains and MO/MS River Valleys early/middle next week.
While the models have been generally inconsistent in resolving this
trough, there seems to be a better signal or momentum within the GFS
and EC to take the system on what seems to be the more preferred
track for winter storms this season, which is through northern
Kansas and eastern Nebraska. This track would generally leave most
of NE Kansas and NW Missouri out of its cross hairs. However, the
12z EC reminded us that the track will still likely take a few
twists and turns before being more finely resolved, likely sometime
this weekend. While the 12z EC indicated a track that would bring a
significant winter storm to this area, the 00z GFS/EC have generally
indicated the track of the system closer to what the previous runs
prior to the 12z EC indicated, which is more of a northern track. At
any rate, much about this potential system next week is up in the
air, and uncertainty with respect to any potential impacts is very
high.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1109 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
MVFR ceilings look to be the primary aviation concern. Saturated
layer below H9 should hold in stratus for much of Tuesday, with some
signal for clouds to thin by late evening.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Blair
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1042 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
.SHORT TERM: (Through Tuesday)
Issued at 242 PM CST Mon Jan 25 2016
Strong little shortwave with a 34 vortmax on the RAP is currently
moving through eastern Missouri. The center of the associated
surface low looks to be near or right over KFFL (Fairfield IA), and
the cold front will be pushing into our central Missouri counties
shortly. Little if any precip reaching the ground at this time in
our CWFA, and the precip threat should end entirely after FROPA.
There`s still a decent likelihood of some light rain up across our
far northern zones...and a chance there could be some light showers
late this afternoon into the evening until the front moves through.
Should see good cold advection behind the front, but the low is
moving northeast and the wind never really veers beyond about 290-
300 degrees, so this won`t be an Arctic outbreak or anything. Should
see temperatures drop quickly into the 30s behind the
front...bottoming out Tuesday morning in the upper 20s to around 30.
Think there will be plenty of stratus/strato-cu lingering over the
area on Tuesday, and with west-northwest flow continuing I don`t
expect temperatures to make it out of the 30s except over far
southern zones where breaks in the overcast are likely.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday night through Next Monday)
Issued at 242 PM CST Mon Jan 25 2016
As surface ridge builds into the region Tuesday night, upper
level shortwave to slide through. No precipitation expected with
this system, but clouds associated with it will begin to scatter
out towards daybreak Wednesday morning. Otherwise, colder air to
filter in with lows near normal in the upper teens to mid 20s.
Then on Wednesday, surface ridge moves off to our east allowing
southerly winds to return to the region. Highs will be near normal
in the mid 30s to low 40s, then begin a gradual warmup for the rest
of the work week and into the weekend as upper level ridging becomes
more zonal. Will see another system slide through on Thursday, but
it will be moisture starved as well with only an increase in mid and
high clouds. By Saturday, highs will be in the low 50s to low 60s
and lows Saturday night in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
Extended models continue to show system developing over the
panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas beginning Saturday night, though
there are some timing and strength differences among them. Warm
frontal boundary associated with it to lift into southern portions
of forecast area by Sunday with increasing chances of precipitation
Sunday night and Monday. At this time, precipitation to remain in
the form of rain as temperatures stay above normal through the
period.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1025 PM CST Mon Jan 25 2016
Surface low has moved northeastward into southeast WI with
trailing cold front east of the taf sites. MVFR post frontal
stratus clouds have invaded the taf sites this evening. Surface
winds have also become strong and gusty from a wly direction since
fropa due to a tight surface pressure gradient between the surface
low and a surface ridge over the Plains. MVFR cigs will continue
late tonight and Tuesday, possibly improving into the VFR
catagory Tuesday evening. Surface winds will diminish Tuesday
evening as surface high center moves into western MO.
Specifics for KSTL: MVFR cigs will continue through at least
Tuesday, possibly improving to VFR Tuesday night. The strong and
gusty wly surface winds will weaken late Tuesday afternoon and
night.
GKS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 30 38 25 38 / 10 5 5 0
Quincy 27 33 20 35 / 10 5 0 0
Columbia 28 35 21 39 / 10 5 5 0
Jefferson City 30 37 21 39 / 10 5 5 0
Salem 32 37 24 35 / 20 5 5 0
Farmington 30 39 22 38 / 10 5 5 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
342 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
THE RAP MODEL MOVES THE BANK OF STRATUS ACROSS NCNTL NEB VERY
SLOWLY EAST TODAY AND PRESUMABLY INTO THE MISSOURI BASIN TONIGHT.
THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY. A BLEND
OF 4 MOS DATA SETS PLUS BIAS CORRECTION SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 40S SOUTH TO LOWER 30S NORTH.
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS MORNING
WILL BE OVER MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
850-700MB WINDS INCREASE TO 25 TO 35KT TONIGHT WITH WARM AIR
ADVANCING SIMILARLY. H850 TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 2 TO 5C. THIS
WOULD LIKELY LIMIT LOWS TO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. NO SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
WARM UP CONTINUES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS WESTERN RIDGE
EXPANDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE WARM
TEMPS WITH 850 MB TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
0C...WHILE THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENT WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 10C
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NOT SURPRISING THE CORRESPONDING MOS
GUIDANCE IS COOLER FOR THE MEX. BELIEVE THE GFS COOL DOWN IS
SOMEWHAT RELATED TO THE RECENT SNOW FALL. SOME MELTING OCCURRED
YESTERDAY AND EXPECT MORE EACH PASSING DAY SO BY FRIDAY MOST
AREAS WILL SEE LITTLE...THUS WILL CONTINUE FORECAST SIMILAR TO
GOING...WHICH IS CLOSER TO WARMER EC.
NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED SATURDAY. MODELS ARE WAVERING
ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WITH A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST ON
PRECIP. TEMPS WILL BE COOLING...HOWEVER AFTERNOON STILL WARMS
ABOVE FREEZING AND RAIN OR A MIX IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST FOR
THE AFTERNOON.
A SECONDARY WAVE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A
BETTER SHOT AT PRECIP. AGAIN TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY AS AFTERNOON TEMPS NEAR 40 COULD SEE A MIX BAG FOR PRECIP
TYPE.
EARLY NEXT WEEK A TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS REGION.
MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. MODELS HAVE NOT
SHOWN GREAT CONSISTENCY OVER THE PASS SEVERAL RUNS WITH THE
TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND WILL GO WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE
MODEL BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE NEXT 6 HOURS. SOME BROKEN CIGS AROUND 1500
FT AGL ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...BUTTLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
327 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUDS.
THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE ICING AND SNOW TO THE LOCAL AREA
MONDAY IS NOW PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SNOW AMOUNTS (IN
INCHES) WERE 0.3 AT OMA/3.1 AT LNK/0.1 AT OFK . THAT BRINGS THE
SEASONAL TOTALS TO 21.1/13.2/24.5 RESPECTIVELY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION AND NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...WILL BRING SOME REINFORCING COLD AIR INTO IOWA. A BAND OF
CLOUDS IN THIS NORTHWEST SHOULD PERSIST...THEN TEND TO BREAK UP
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM HAD SOME CAPE
ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE HRRR WAS INDICATING SOME
FLURRIES POSSIBLE. WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW COVERAGE. WITH THE
CLOUDS/SOME BREAKS AND RECENT SNOW...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S TO LOWER 30S CAN BE EXPECTED.
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WE ARE LOOKING FOR A LESS ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN AND FOR TEMPERATURES TO TRY TO WARM INTO THE 30S AND 40S.
SOME WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK H85 TROUGH
PASSAGE. ANY COOLING IS SHORT-LIVED AS WARM WEDGE OF AIR ARRIVES
FRIDAY. NOT SURE THAT WE WILL MAKE THE 50S FRIDAY...HOWEVER
NEIGHBORS DO HAVE 50S IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
...POTENTIAL WINTER STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK...STILL A LONG WAY OUT
THOUGH...
A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY AND COULD AFFECT AREAS TOWARD SIOUX CITY...HOWEVER LOOKS
MAINLY DRY LOCALLY. A STRONG 130KT JET PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND BY FRIDAY NIGHT HAS MADE IT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THE EC HAS STRONG WARMING WITH RIPPLE IN
THE FLOW AND A THERMAL GRADIENT WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A
TROUGH HAS MOVED ONSHORE.
MONDAY AND ON GROUNDHOG`S DAY...THE MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL
STORM TRACKING FROM THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION INTO THE PLAINS. THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM COULD HAVE MIXED PRECIPITATION...BEFORE IT TURNS TO
ALL SNOW. THE 00Z LONG-RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. SINCE THE
ORIGINS OF THE STORM ARE STILL SEVERAL THOUSAND MILES OFF THE
WEST COAST AND WILL NOT COME ONSHORE UNTIL SUNDAY...IT IS STILL A
LONG WAYS OUT AND THE EVOLUTION CAN CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT
WAVE THROUGH 18Z. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE TAF SITES UNTIL AT LEAST 12Z WITH DECREASING LOW CLOUDS
THROUGH 18Z. WARM FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...FOBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
113 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN CATSKILLS
IN NEW YORK. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES DURING THE
EVENING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TO
AREAS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR ONEIDA COUNTY
THROUGH 10 AM THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE
A FAVORABLE PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THIS AREA WITH SFC
TEMPS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING AND A LAYER OF WARM AIR ALOFT
PERSISTING AS THE COLUMN SATURATES AND THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH
THE SWATH OF PRECIP. AREAS TO THE SOUTH WILL TAKE A WHILE LONGER
TO SATURATE...AND BY THAT TIME SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING AND BE MAINLY A RAIN EVENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
9 PM UPDATE...
AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE OUR WAY OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY. WITH A 15 DEGREE DEW POINT SPREAD, NOTHING MORE THAN
SPRINKLES ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE MOMENT ACROSS OHIO. THE HRRR
SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS PRECIPITATION AND EXPANDS
IT IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY INTO CENTRAL NY. UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS BECAUSE WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH DRY AIR NOT ONLY
IN THE LOW LEVELS BUT MID LEVELS. THIS WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF VIRGA AT THE START, FOLLOWED BY SPOTTY VERY LIGHT QPF.
SO THE TRANSLATION FOR MOST OF THE AREA IS A FEW SPRINKLES AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT.
HOWEVER ACROSS CENTRAL NY, WHILE THE HRRR MAY BE A TAD TOO HEAVY
ON THE QPF, ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT OF OUR ENTIRE AREA
THIS IS THE AREA TO WATCH FOR SOME LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION
AN EAST FLOW OF AIR IS FUNNELING COLDER AIR UP THE MOHAWK VALLEY,
AS EVIDENT IN THE 30/19 READING LAST HOUR AT KSYR. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN HERE. CONFIDENCE
JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT UP AN ADVISORY JUST YET. TO INCREASE
AWARENESS HOWEVER BEFORE THE 10/11 PM NEWS AND BEFORE PEOPLE GO TO
BED, I DID ISSUE AN SPS ON THIS POSSIBILITY. WHILE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF ICE IS POSSIBLE NEAR SYRACUSE AND UTICA, BEST CHANCES FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD WOULD BE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY.
BOTTOMLINE IF YOU LIVE IN CENTRAL NY, CHECK BACK BEFORE YOU HEAD
OUT IN THE MORNING FOR ANY POSSIBLE ADVISORIES. PREVIOUS AFD IS
BELOW...
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...WEAK WAA FORCING DURING THE MORNING HOURS MAY BRING A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY,
TUG HILL PLATEAU AND WESTERN CATSKILLS A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE. DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE, WEAK FORCING
AND MARGINAL SFC TEMPS NOT CONCERNED ABOUT ANY TRAVEL ISSUES.
LATE IN THE DAY A WEAK SFC TROF WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA KEEPING
LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40
TO THE MID 40S.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...H5 TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION WHILE
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH WED MORNING. LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES FAVORABLE FOR LES ACROSS NRN ONEIDA COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THEN THE FLOW GRADUALLY VEERS THROUGH MIDDAY WED AS THE SFC TROF
DROPS SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS NRN ONEIDA
COUNTY THEN SPREAD THE LIKELY POPS TO AREAS SE OF THE LAKE WED
MORNING. TOTAL ACCUMS THROUGH 24 HOURS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 5
INCHES WITH NRN ONEIDA COUNTY MOSTLY LIKELY TO REACH THE HIGHER
END OF THIS RANGE. REST OF CENTRAL NY WILL JUST SEE SCATTERED
FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS IN NE PA.
LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 WITH HIGHS WED IN
THE 30S.
WED NIGHT/THURSDAY...A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER AS BRIEF RIDGING AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT OCCURS WED NIGHT. ON THURSDAY, THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES AS SFC LOW PRES TRACKS
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. CLIPPERS MOVING WELL NORTH OF REGION
UNDER SW SFC FLOW USUALLY MEANS DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT CROSSES, WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
230 PM MONDAY UPDATE...
IN THE BIG PICTURE, A MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD PREVAIL
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. NEXT WEEKEND, THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL, WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT EXPECTED TO RISE
SOMEWHAT OVER THE EASTERN STATES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IN GENERAL, THE ABOVE MEANS NO BIG STORMS THROUGH AT LEAST MON.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEASONABLE FRI, WITH HIGHS RANGING
IN THE 30S. READINGS COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER-MIDDLE 40S OVER
PARTS OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, BEFORE THEY LOWER SOMEWHAT AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER-WISE, SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND, AS A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES/CLIPPERS TRACK ACROSS UPSTATE NY/NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND/SOUTHERN CANADA. STARTING MON, A PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION COULD ENSUE, AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ENERGIZES TO OUR
SOUTH, WHILE A DEVELOPING CYCLONE TRACKS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION TODAY. FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING FREEZING RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION... BEFORE SFC TEMPS RISE ABOVE
FREEZING. THESE SHOWERS WILL FALL INTO A LOT OF DRY AIR AND EXPECT
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY TO EVAPORATE BEFORE MAKING IT TO THE SFC.
ATTM EXPECT FZRA TO IMPACT KRME... CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ATTM TO
PLACE IN OTHER TAF SITES. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO IMPACT MUCH OF
THE AREA AS THIS INITIAL ROUND OF ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH.
A SECONDARY BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO REMAIN MOSTLY VFR. LE SNOW SHOWER WILL FOLLOW AFTER 00Z AND
IMPACT KSYR AND KRME.
FOR THE MOST PART WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND LESS THAN 12 KNOTS
THIS MORNING... THEN BECOMING GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS. ALOFT WINDS
ARE FAIRLY STRONG AND LLWS IS PRESENT THIS MORNING AND MAY LAST
THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK...
TU NGT/WED/WED NGT...RESTRICTIONS PROBABLE IN PASSING SNOW
SHOWERS AT KRME/KSYR/KITH/KBGM, WITH VFR MUCH OF THE TIME AT
KELM/KAVP.
THU...VFR.
FRI-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ009-
037.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...BJT/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...KAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1247 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN CATSKILLS
IN NEW YORK. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES DURING THE
EVENING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TO
AREAS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR ONEIDA COUNTY
THROUGH 10 AM THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE
A FAVORABLE PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THIS AREA WITH SFC
TEMPS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING AND A LAYER OF WARM AIR ALOFT
PERSISTING AS THE COLUMN SATURATES AND THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH
THE SWATH OF PRECIP. AREAS TO THE SOUTH WILL TAKE A WHILE LONGER
TO SATURATE...AND BY THAT TIME SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING AND BE MAINLY A RAIN EVENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
9 PM UPDATE...
AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE OUR WAY OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY. WITH A 15 DEGREE DEW POINT SPREAD, NOTHING MORE THAN
SPRINKLES ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE MOMENT ACROSS OHIO. THE HRRR
SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS PRECIPITATION AND EXPANDS
IT IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY INTO CENTRAL NY. UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS BECAUSE WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH DRY AIR NOT ONLY
IN THE LOW LEVELS BUT MID LEVELS. THIS WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF VIRGA AT THE START, FOLLOWED BY SPOTTY VERY LIGHT QPF.
SO THE TRANSLATION FOR MOST OF THE AREA IS A FEW SPRINKLES AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT.
HOWEVER ACROSS CENTRAL NY, WHILE THE HRRR MAY BE A TAD TOO HEAVY
ON THE QPF, ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT OF OUR ENTIRE AREA
THIS IS THE AREA TO WATCH FOR SOME LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION
AN EAST FLOW OF AIR IS FUNNELING COLDER AIR UP THE MOHAWK VALLEY,
AS EVIDENT IN THE 30/19 READING LAST HOUR AT KSYR. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN HERE. CONFIDENCE
JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT UP AN ADVISORY JUST YET. TO INCREASE
AWARENESS HOWEVER BEFORE THE 10/11 PM NEWS AND BEFORE PEOPLE GO TO
BED, I DID ISSUE AN SPS ON THIS POSSIBILITY. WHILE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF ICE IS POSSIBLE NEAR SYRACUSE AND UTICA, BEST CHANCES FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD WOULD BE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY.
BOTTOMLINE IF YOU LIVE IN CENTRAL NY, CHECK BACK BEFORE YOU HEAD
OUT IN THE MORNING FOR ANY POSSIBLE ADVISORIES. PREVIOUS AFD IS
BELOW...
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...WEAK WAA FORCING DURING THE MORNING HOURS MAY BRING A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY,
TUG HILL PLATEAU AND WESTERN CATSKILLS A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE. DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE, WEAK FORCING
AND MARGINAL SFC TEMPS NOT CONCERNED ABOUT ANY TRAVEL ISSUES.
LATE IN THE DAY A WEAK SFC TROF WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA KEEPING
LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40
TO THE MID 40S.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...H5 TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION WHILE
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH WED MORNING. LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES FAVORABLE FOR LES ACROSS NRN ONEIDA COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THEN THE FLOW GRADUALLY VEERS THROUGH MIDDAY WED AS THE SFC TROF
DROPS SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS NRN ONEIDA
COUNTY THEN SPREAD THE LIKELY POPS TO AREAS SE OF THE LAKE WED
MORNING. TOTAL ACCUMS THROUGH 24 HOURS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 5
INCHES WITH NRN ONEIDA COUNTY MOSTLY LIKELY TO REACH THE HIGHER
END OF THIS RANGE. REST OF CENTRAL NY WILL JUST SEE SCATTERED
FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS IN NE PA.
LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 WITH HIGHS WED IN
THE 30S.
WED NIGHT/THURSDAY...A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER AS BRIEF RIDGING AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT OCCURS WED NIGHT. ON THURSDAY, THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES AS SFC LOW PRES TRACKS
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. CLIPPERS MOVING WELL NORTH OF REGION
UNDER SW SFC FLOW USUALLY MEANS DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT CROSSES, WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
230 PM MONDAY UPDATE...
IN THE BIG PICTURE, A MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD PREVAIL
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. NEXT WEEKEND, THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL, WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT EXPECTED TO RISE
SOMEWHAT OVER THE EASTERN STATES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IN GENERAL, THE ABOVE MEANS NO BIG STORMS THROUGH AT LEAST MON.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEASONABLE FRI, WITH HIGHS RANGING
IN THE 30S. READINGS COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER-MIDDLE 40S OVER
PARTS OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, BEFORE THEY LOWER SOMEWHAT AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER-WISE, SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND, AS A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES/CLIPPERS TRACK ACROSS UPSTATE NY/NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND/SOUTHERN CANADA. STARTING MON, A PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION COULD ENSUE, AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ENERGIZES TO OUR
SOUTH, WHILE A DEVELOPING CYCLONE TRACKS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE...
AFTER VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS MOST OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CLOUDS
WILL MOVE IN BETWEEN 9 AND 12Z. SHOULD DROP TO 1500 FT AND FUEL
ALTERNATES AT RME/BGM/ITH/AVP. MAYBE ALL THE WAY TO IFR AT BGM.
ALSO DURING THIS TIME COULD BE A LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN
SHOWER. CIGS LIFT BACK TO VFR 14 TO 19Z.
SE TO S WINDS 4 TO 8 KTS TONIGHT. TUESDAY MORNING S WINDS 10 KTS
SHIFTING TO SW AND INCREASING TO 10 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
.OUTLOOK...
TU NGT/WED/WED NGT...RESTRICTIONS PROBABLE IN PASSING SNOW
SHOWERS AT KRME/KSYR/KITH/KBGM, WITH VFR MUCH OF THE TIME AT
KELM/KAVP.
THU...VFR.
FRI-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ009-
037.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...BJT/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
406 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE
LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL PASS TO
THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON THURSDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SECOND CLIPPER ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN INDIANA AND SHOULD
BE TO THE I-75 CORRIDOR BY 12Z. JUST A FEW SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON
RADAR BUT THE LATEST RUC AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE SHOWERS
POPPING UP AS THE FRONT ARRIVES. COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH 50 PERCENT OF LESS PRECIP CHANCES. A DRY SLOT BEHIND
THE LOW WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT
SKIES TO CLEAR BUT A FEW BREAKS CERTAINLY ARE POSSIBLE. PRETTY
GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS OCCURRING
EARLY. GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE WAY TOO LOW SO HAVE TRIED TO
INTERPOLATE CURRENT TEMPS TO WHAT THEY WILL BE AT 12Z AND HAVE
USED THOSE NUMBERS FOR TODAYS HIGHS. CRITICAL THICKNESSES
EVENTUALLY GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW LATE IN THE DAY. BY THAT TIME
HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE VERY LITTLE PRECIP. EXPECT MOST OF THE
AREA TO BE COMPLETELY DRY FROM LATE MORNING ON. READINGS BY SUNSET
SHOULD IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BY 00Z 850 MB TEMPS OVER NW PA WILL BE ABOUT NEG 9 WITH TEMPS
DIPPING TO NEG 12 BY 12Z. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT
BUT NOTHING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. WE WILL ALSO START OUT WITH A
REALLY LOW INVERSION THIS EVENING SO THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE WILL
BE SLOW TO GET GOING TONIGHT. A SECONDARY TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
ROTATE ACROSS THE LATE TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE TO GET A FEW WEAK BANDS SET UP. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS BUT ACCUMS OF ONLY AN INCH OF TWO. AWAY FROM THE LAKE
EFFECT AREAS SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY OVERCAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TO MAKE SURE NO SNOW FROM LAKE MICHIGAN MAKES IT TO THE KTOL AREA
IN THE WNW FLOW. THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BY SUNSET THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL BE OVER EVER IN NW
PA. MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE AWAY FROM THE LAKE. THE MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT TRACKING A CLIPPER TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON
THURSDAY. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH OF THE LAKE BUT WILL HANG ON TO A SMALL
MENTION MAINLY IN NW PA IN CASE SOME LIGHT SNOW DOES DEVELOP. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER APPROACHING
FROM THE NW AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND LIFT
NORTH ON SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. MODELS LIFT THIS FEATURE NORTH FAIRLY QUICKLY BUT THAT WILL
BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE GET CLOSER AS WARM FRONTS CAN
STRUGGLE TO MOVE NORTH OF THE COLD LAKES. KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW 40S ON
SATURDAY MOST AREAS AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT.
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW
MORE DEGREES DESPITE AMPLE CLOUD COVER. NOT CLEAR AT THIS POINT IF
THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA OR STALL ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THIS DOES SET THE STAGE FOR A WARM
AND MOIST PATTERN INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THIS BOUNDARY
LINGERS NEAR THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PROVIDING A SUPPLY OF MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS HAS CROSSED THE FORECAST AREA AND THERE
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CEILINGS WILL BE MAINLY MVFR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS NEAR AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT BUT SOME DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND I SUSPECT THAT THIS WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
AND DID NOT INCLUDE IFR CEILINGS IN THE TAF FORECASTS AT THIS
TIME. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... MAINLY ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. NON VFR
RETURNS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT
FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 25
KNOTS ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE AND 35 KNOT GALES ON THE EAST END
OF THE LAKE. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 11 FEET ON THE FAR EAST END OF
THE LAKE. WINDS WILL DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON THURSDAY AND PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE
EARLY FRIDAY. A RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LEZ061-148-149-168-169.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
402 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN WITH POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. AFTER A RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND SEASONABLY COLDER AND AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.
THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN PA INTO MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SITES ALONG AND WEST OF RT219 HAVE BEEN STEADILY WARMING OVERNIGHT
RUNNING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. A RELATIVELY
MILD SW WIND HAS PROPELLED READINGS INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS AT 08Z. MAIN CONCERN REMAINS THE RISK FOR LIGHT
ICE GLAZE JUST EAST OF ALLEGHENY FRONT ACROSS THE INTERIOR CENTRAL
RIDGES AND PERHAPS INTO PORTIONS OF THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. THE
LATEST HRRR HOLDS ONTO LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA
THRU 12Z.
PA DOT REPORTED EARLIER THAT ROAD TEMPS ARE AROUND 30F. QUESTION
IS IF WAA PRECIP CAN SURVIVE DOWNSLOPING EAST THE ALLEGHENIES
INTO DRIER AIR. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT ICING
IS LOW...SPOTTY TRACE AMOUNTS UP TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
OF ICE GLAZE IS LIKELY. THIS WILL BE OCCURRING INTO THE PEAK
MORNING COMMUTE AND IT ONLY TAKES A VERY SMALL AMOUNT OF ICE GLAZE
TO CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES REMAIN HIGHLY VARIABLE
RANGING FROM 41F AT K2G9 TO 9F AT THV. MANY SITES THAT DECOUPLED
OVER THE MID/LWR SUSQ WITH FRESH SNOWPACK EXPERIENCED RAPID TEMP
DROPS INTO THE LOW-MID TEENS OR EVEN UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. THIS
TREND SHOULD REVERSE BY 10Z. EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING
BY LATE MORNING AND END THE LIGHT FZRA THREAT. THE RELATIVELY MILD
SWLY WIND SHOULD BOOST TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S THIS
AFTERNOON.
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE HIGHER CLOUDS PEELING OFF BY THE AFTERNOON.
THIS IS EVIDENT VIA THE 11-3.9U IR SATL LOOP WHICH ONLY SHOWS
LOWER CLOUDS TO THE WEST OF THE PA/WV/OH BORDER. THEREFORE ADDED
DZ TO LIGHT RAIN CHANCE FOR LATER TODAY. PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT
THIS EVENING WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WEST WINDS AND GRADUAL
DROP IN TEMPERATURES...WITH A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FAVORED WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS BEFORE SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF THE LOWER LAKES. A MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION
/LESS THAN 1 INCH/ IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK 12Z WEDNESDAY OVER THE
NW MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION LKLY FROM THE NW
ALLEGHENIES INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES
WED NGT AND BRINGS AN END TO THE LES ACTIVITY. D2 MAXES WILL DROP
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY WITH LOWS BTWN 10-20F -- COLDEST
READINGS IN THE SOUTH.
MODELS TRACK CLIPPER LOW NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TOWARD NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z FRIDAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLY COLDER W/NW FLOW
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT AND
OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN MTNS THUR NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTERN SYSTEM WILL NOT
PHASE WITH THE TROUGH AND THUS REMAIN FAR ENOUGH EAST TO PRECLUDE
ANY PRECIP REACHING BACK INTO THE LOWER SUSQ. BUT THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH WILL SPREAD GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS INTO NW HALF OF
CWA THROUGH LATE WEEK AS BRISK SW FLOW TURNS TO THE NW...OPENING
UP THE LAKES TO LIKELY IMPACT FAR NW SNOWBELT WITH A PERIOD OF
MORE INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BANDS LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
FAST ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGS A WEAK RIDGE THROUGH FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT...BUT THEN SERIES OF WEAKER WAVES SLIDE THROUGH THE
REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPS WARM UP A BIT...BRINGING IMPACTS
FROM GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW CEDING TO RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDS AND LIGHT SOUTH WIND ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE
AIRSPACE.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD LOWERING CIGS/SCT SHOWERS INTO
THE AREA EARLY TUES MORNING ALONG WITH THE CHC FOR JUST A BIT OF
FZRA OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. IN ADDITION...A
CORE OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT...CREATING LLWS
CONDS AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST PA AND LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. OTHER AREA OF CONCERN
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE STATE...WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN MCLEAR AND WIND LIGHT.
LATEST SREF PROBS AND DOWNSCALED NAM SUGGEST VIS REDUCTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY TUE AM AT KMDT/KLNS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PA ON
TUESDAY...ENDING THE THREAT OF LINGERING SHOWERS/LLWS OVER MOST OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS W/REGARD TO
HOW FAST FRONT AND ANY ASSOC FOG/SHOWERS CLEAR THE KMDT/KLNS AREA.
POST-FRONTAL LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE W MTNS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE IFR CIGS AND PATCHY DZ AT KBFD/KJST 12Z-18Z...WITH SOME
MODEST IMPROVEMENT LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES
FROM THE WEST.
OUTLOOK...
WED...AM LOW CIGS/-SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST PA.
FRI-SAT...OCNL SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE W MTNS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005-
006-010>012-017>019-024>026-033>036-045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1124 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WITH LIGHT SHWRS DEVELOPING/MOVING IN SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...
AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SOLUTION...BACKED OFF POPS
THRU MID EVENING HRS W TO E ACROSS THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS. ALSO...
BELIEVE FOR LOCATIONS AHEAD OF EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION TUE MORNING...JUST
E OF I-65...THAT TEMPS AROUND THIS AREA AND FOR LOCATIONS TO THE E...THAT
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...
MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THIS REASONING GOES WELL WITH CURRENT LAMP
GUIDANCE VALUES ALSO. ALSO TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITION...
AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS BY 12Z WITH
SCT SHRA. BNA AND CKV MAY HAVE A PERIOD OF IFR WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BETWEEN 07Z- 15Z...THEN CLIMB BACK TO MVFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. CSV WILL DROP TO IFR BY DAYBREAK...AND WILL
LIKELY HOLD IFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SHRA.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........13
LONG TERM..................31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
340 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON TODAY AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST TO 50 MILES INLAND TOWARDS LAVACA AND DEWITT COUNTIES ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE AREA. A
SHARP 20F DEWPOINT GRADIENT IS NOTED BETWEEN GONZALES AND
VICTORIA AS OF 3AM. THIS FRONT SHOULD STALL THROUGH THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEPER NORTHWESTERN
MOMENTUM. PER WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS, A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER NEW MEXICO INTO NORTH MEXICO.
THIS FEATURE WILL AID IN MID-LEVEL INCREASED DIVERGENCE THROUGH
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE AREA BEING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, ENOUGH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN A VERY WEAK ELEVATED UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISO/SCT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. UPDRAFTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ROBUST AND THUNDER IS
NOT EXPECTED GIVEN THE VERY POOR LAPSE RATES IN THE H7-H5 LAYER
ABOVE THE STRONG INVERSION. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN
PLACED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAINS WHERE THE UPGLIDE
AND MOISTURE WILL BE MORE ENHANCED. ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HIGH WITH MAX TOTALS IN SCATTERED LOCATIONS BETWEEN
ONE TENTH AND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE
LESS. STRONGER NORTHERLY MOMENTUM WILL ENSUE TONIGHT WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE TROUGH AND ISENTROPIC DOWNSLOPING WILL COMMENCE -
THUS ENDING THE RAIN CHANCES BY LATE EVENING.
DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH AND WEST WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS
PWATS DROP TO 0.3" OR BELOW ON WEDNESDAY. MORE SUN IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOUT 5 F DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH ONE COLD
MORNING EXPECTED THURSDAY THAT WILL BE THEN FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WARM UP TO NORMAL AND THEN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REACH NEAR 80 DEGREES BY
SUNDAY WITH AMPLE SUN LIKELY. THE NEXT RAIN CHANCE MAY NOT COME
UNTIL NEXT TUESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THE NEXT WEEK
WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
AND LOWER 30S EVERYWHERE ELSE. SEVERAL MOS GUIDANCE VALUES
SUGGESTED LOWER VALUES VS. ORIGINAL BLEND GUIDANCE AND FOLLOWED
SUIT BY TRIMMING 2F DEGREES OFF. DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER
20S AND WITH NEAR CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS - THIS WOULD LIKELY
SET THE STAGE FOR A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOL OFF THAT WOULD OVER
ACHIEVE VS. WHAT RAW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. WITH SUCH DRY AIR
IN PLACE, LARGE DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE THE NORM BY LATE WEEK AS
HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 60S THURSDAY AFTN THEN 70S FRI/SAT. BY
SUNDAY...H925 TEMPS WILL REACH 18-20C THAT WILL SUPPORT SURFACE
VALUES CLOSE TO 80F DEGREES. DESPITE A POSSIBLE TROUGH PASSAGE
SATURDAY, MOISTURE APPEARS TOO LOW FOR ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND WITH GENERAL ZONAL FLOW NOTED
OTHERWISE. IT IS NOT TILL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN A LARGER TROUGH
TAKES FORM OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THEN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF AGREE THAT A FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD OCCUR
LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME-FRAME WITH LOW-END RAIN OR POSSIBLY EVEN
THUNDER CHANCES. HAVE ONLY PLACE 20% AT THIS PARTICULAR POINT WITH
A GENERALLY QUIET WEEK AHEAD. LONGER RANGE MODEL SUITE DOES
INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING SUBSTANTIALLY BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK HOWEVER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 55 37 57 34 66 / 20 10 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 55 36 56 29 65 / 20 10 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 55 37 58 31 66 / 20 10 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 53 33 55 31 65 / 10 10 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 57 38 60 32 68 / 20 10 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 53 35 54 30 65 / 10 10 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 56 36 59 29 67 / 20 10 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 54 37 56 31 65 / 20 10 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 55 39 56 31 64 / 40 20 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 55 38 57 33 66 / 20 10 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 56 38 58 32 67 / 30 20 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
415 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT AND WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER....AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM EST TUESDAY...
VORTICITY MAX OVER MICHIGAN WAS MOVING NORTHEAST WITH THE SURFACE
LOW OVER MICHIGAN AND THE COLD FRONT TRAILING INTO NORTHERN
LOUISIANA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY BUT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
FROM JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...THE FRONT WILL BECOME PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER FLOW
AND MAKE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS SOUTHEAST.
00Z NAM ALONG WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL WRF HAD REASONABLE
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY. THE FIRST AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS MORNING. MET AND MAV GUIDANCE...AS WELL
AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED LOWER LAYERS SATURATING AND
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS RISING EARLY THIS MORNING. BY THE
TIME THE PRECIPITATION IS ABLE TO SURVIVE ALL THE WAY TO THE
SURFACE...ONLY PARTS OF GREENBRIER COUNTY HAVE ANY THREAT OF
FREEZING RAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
RISING ABOVE FREEZING BY 10AM.
THE THIN BAND OF RAIN FROM OHIO INTO LOUISIANA WILL MOVE EAST WITH
THE FRONT...REACHING THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH PROGRESS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UNTIL AFTER 21Z/4PM.
EVENTUALLY SURFACE AND 850 MB FRONT PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT...ENOUGH COLD AIR ARRIVES TO CHANGE THE
PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...ON THE NORTHWEST
EDGE OF WHERE THE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
RETREATING SOUTHEAST. SO FOR NOW LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIMITED TO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.
STAYED CLOSE TO MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY AND MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EST TUESDAY...
BY 12Z(7 AM EST) WEDNESDAY...ALL THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS FORECAST
THE COLD FRONT TO BE WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY (ANAFRONT)...AND THE FORECAST AREA
STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A DEPARTING
UPPER LEVEL JET...PRECIP WILL LINGER WELL BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY UNTIL
LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR ARRIVES. THE NAM AND 21Z SREF ARE SEVERAL
HOURS SLOWER IN PUSHING PRECIP OUT OF THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...KEPT POPS IN THE EAST UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.
IF THE SLOWER SREF/NAM VERIFY...THIS WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCES OF
THE LIGHT RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE THE
PRECIP ENDS. OVER TIME...THE SREF PLUMES SHOW FEW MEMBERS
SUPPORTING SNOW. STILL KEPT A COUPLE OF HOURS OF A SMALL CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP WEDNESDAY...BUT NO
ACCUMULATION OF WINTRY PRECIP IS EXPECTED.
WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...CONTINUED TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR THE COLDER
NAM MOS GUIDANCE VALUES.
NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR SO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE...CONTINUE
TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WHICH MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND KEEPING THIS FEATURE WELL
EAST OF OUR AREA. AS CONFIDENCE GROWS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT
IMPACT OUR AREA...WE CONTINUE TO PUSH POPS DOWN IN THE EAST ON
THURSDAY.
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER NOW ANTICIPATED ON THURSDAY...AND A DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW...INCREASED HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY OUR ATTENTION SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTHERN
STREAM...WHERE A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY...BUT BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...AND FORECAST TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY
BE ABLE TO TAP SOME GREAT LAKE MOISTURE PRODUCING UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES. INTRODUCED SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS PERIOD FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...
LONGER RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA
WILL TRANSITION FROM A DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
INTO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFIES WELL OFFSHORE....TO MORE OF A FLAT ZONAL
FLOW BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SOME 1-3" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE
PREFERRED UPSLOPE AREAS...MOST NOTABLY WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY
WV.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPERATURE BACK TO WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AND SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN WHAT THEY OTHERWISE WOULD BE DUE TO COOLING INFLUENCE OF
MELTING DEEP SNOWPACK...AND ADJUSTED THERMAL PROFILES DOWNWARD A TAD
FROM GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH MAY NOT BE ACCOUNTING FOR
THE FULL INFLUENCE OF COOLING UNTIL THE DEEPER SNOWPACK IS FINALLY
ERODED AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO/THROUGH THE 40S SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY.
WEAK MEAN RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO DEFLECT NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH INCREASING WARM MOIST ADVECTION ON
WEST-WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE
APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1115 PM EST MONDAY...
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
LINGERING VFR TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT UNDER PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND
SOME INCREASE IN STRATO-CU OVER THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS MAY
BRING MVFR CIGS TO KBLF/KLWB LATE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES
AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN APPROACHES. HOWEVER GIVEN DRY AIR WILL KEEP
ANY PRECIP MENTION OUT OF THE WESTERN TAFS OVERNIGHT WHILE
LOWERING CIGS TO LOW END VFR OVER THE SE WEST VA SITES BY MORNING.
BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST WILL BE NEARING THE
WESTERN SLOPES...LIKELY PRECEDED BY A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN THAT
SHOULD START TO IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST WEST VA LOCATIONS DURING THE
MORNING. THUS WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN RAIN AT KLWB AND
KBLF BY MID MORNING TUESDAY AND THEN EDGE SLOWLY EAST TO
KBCB/KROA BY THE AFTERNOON. LATEST BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO LOWER TO IFR AT TIMES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER GUIDANCE REMAINS HESITANT
TO PUSH DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL VERY LATE
TUESDAY. THEREFORE HELD OFF ADDING RAIN MENTION AT KDAN ALTHOUGH
COULD SEE CIGS DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS ESPCLY AT KLYH LATER IN THE DAY
WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WHILE WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THE JET JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL RAMP UP TO 30-40 KTS
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL CREATE A SPEED WIND SHEAR
SITUATION AT MOST SITES INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF
KBLF WHERE SURFACE MIXING WILL BE BETTER.
COLD FRONT WILL PASS SLOWLY TO THE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH ANAFRONT TYPE DEEPER MOISTURE PERHAPS REMAINING ACROSS THE
REGION INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE BUT IF
PRECIP DOES PERSIST THEN COULD SEE SUB-VFR IN A PERIOD OF SNOW OR
MIX MOUNTAINS AND A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE IN THE EAST INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. DOES APPEAR THAT SUB-VFR CIGS AND PERIODIC VSBYS WILL
PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY IN THE EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER THE FAR EAST.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE MAY LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE RIDES THE FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER LATEST
MODELS INDICATE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE MOISTURE WITH
MOST NOW INDICATING VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IN STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW AND
INCREASINGLY COLD AIR MAY PROVIDE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND -SHSN
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED
FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST WHERE WILL REMAIN UNDER DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS EARLY
SATURDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH/MBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1132 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
WELL..WE HAD TO WAIT A WHILE IN SOME AREAS BUT THE FORCING IS
FINALLY HITTING US WITH A RAPID INCREASE IN WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA.
THE LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS /800MB/ HAS BEEN WORKING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA FROM AUSTIN MN TO WABASHA TO TREMPEALEAU
COUNTY FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SUPERCOOLED
LIQUID CLOUD. THIS WAS THE INTENT OF THE ADVISORY...BUT THE LIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THAT FGEN AREA HAS BEEN TOO LITTLE TO GROW THE
CLOUD DROPS TO DRIZZLE SIZE TO FALL. THUS...THE ADVISORY START
TIME WAS TOO EARLY EAST AND SOUTH OF LA CROSSE. OVERALL THERE IS
SURPRISINGLY LITTLE TRAVEL IMPACT IN THE FZDZ AREA WITH MAIN
ROADS IN NORMAL DRIVING CONDITION PER DOT DUE TO TREATMENTS.
SHERIFFS ARE REPORTING GLAZING ON OTHER SURFACES LIKE VEHICLES.
STARTING TO SEE GOOD CLOUD TOP COOLING IN NORTHERN IA VIA GOES IR
AS WELL AS KDVN RADAR LIGHTING UP WITH DRIZZLE OVER THE PAST HOUR
OR SO. THIS IS SHIFTING INTO SOUTHWESTERN WI. CORRELATION
COEFFICIENTS ARE NEAR 1 AND SHOW THE DRIZZLE WELL...SAME AS SIGNAL
AS FZDZ TO THE NW OF KLSE. CLOUD TOP COOLING REGION IN NORTHERN IA
IS DEEPER ICE AND SNOW IS BEING OBSERVED THERE...SOMETHING A
CONSENSUS OF SHORT TERM MODELS NAILED HOURS AGO. AT THAT TIME...WE
HAD ADJUSTED THE SNOW FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT AXIS FROM ABOUT
KCCY-KLSE. THIS AXIS IS A DEVELOPING SECOND FRONTOGENESIS AREA
/600-800MB/ THAT WILL TEND TO TAKE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS
IT SHIFTS INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI PER 25.19Z RAP GUIDANCE AND OBS.
SO...WE SHOULD SEE THE CURRENT BAND SHIFT NORTHEAST TO KLSE...THEN
TOWARD KISW. IT SHIFTS QUICKLY...IT SEEMS OUTLIER /HIGHER/ SNOW
TOTALS ARE NOT SUPPORTED. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THAT
MAX SNOW AXIS. OVERALL THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS STILL ON A 2-3 INCH
SNOW FROM NERN IA INTO CENTRAL WI.
WHILE OUR FORECAST MESSAGE REMAINS A CHANGE TO SNOW...WE COULD SEE
FZDZ CONTINUE AWAY FROM THIS BAND FOR 2-3 HOURS YET UNTIL MAIN
UPPER LOW COMES IN. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE NOW KICKING
IN PER POTENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND QG FORCING...AND DEEP
SATURATION COULD JUST OCCUR THROUGH THE LAYER TOO. SO...WILL
CONTINUING THE MESSAGE OF FZDZ/SNOW TO ALL SNOW IS APPROPRIATE.
CONTINUED THE DRIFTING SNOW FORECAST IN THE POST-LOW ENVIRONMENT
OVERNIGHT. ALSO...HAVE LINGERED FLURRIES THROUGH THE MORNING ON
TUESDAY WITH TROUGH OVERHEAD AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES I THE LOW-
LEVELS. THINKING BOUNDARY LAYER ROLLS WILL ALLOW FOR ON/OFF LIGHT
SNOW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN WEDNESDAY WITH A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IN NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. TIMING SEEMS TO
BE AN ISSUE WITH THE 25.12Z ECMWF SUGGESTING ABOUT A 6 HOUR FASTER
SOLUTION THAN THE U.S. MODELS AND A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
WAVE. OVERALL...MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS/LIFT MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
WI...BUT WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THE 300-500MB QG CONVERGENCE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL WI...HAVE
INCREASED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THERE A BIT. IT LOOKS LIKE A
QUICK HITTER INCH OR LESS IF IT PRECIPITATES. THERE IS SUGGESTION
OF MORE ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND WILL NEED
TO WATCH THIS OVER THE COMING DAYS FOR SNOW CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH.
TRANSITION BEGINS LATE IN THE WEEK TOWARD MORE ZONAL FLOW AND THEN
LARGE SCALE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS IS
MAKING FOR A LOW PREDICTABILITY PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. STUCK WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS UNTIL A
BETTER TARGET CAN BE SEEN. OVERALL...AN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW WAS BEGINNING TO WORK INTO SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND EXPECT THAT THIS WILL MAKE IT THROUGH KRST AROUND
09Z AND KLSE AROUND 12Z. UNTIL IT DOES...THE VISIBILITY SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE AND THEN GO UP TO VFR WITH SOME FLURRIES.
NOT EXPECTING THE CEILINGS TO MOVE MUCH THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
KLSE SHOULD STAY MVFR WITH KRST STARTING OUT IFR AND THEN COMING
UP TO MVFR LATE TUESDAY MORNING OR EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
WINDS HAVE ALREADY COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS. AS THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN UP OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
DEVELOP AT BOTH SITES AND CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF TUESDAY. HAVE
NOT INCLUDED AN BLOWING SNOW AT KRST AS ACCUMULATIONS WERE PRETTY
LIGHT AND LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY PROLONGED PERIODS OF
VISIBILITY REDUCTION.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ079-
086>088-094>096.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR IAZ008>011-
018-019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1044 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
AND NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
EXTENDED THE ADVISORY UNTIL 15Z/TUES IN PARTS OF C/EC/NE WI.
NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW LIFT IN THE 900-800 MB LAYER LINGERING OVER THIS
AREA THROUGH ABOUT MID-MORNING...SO LIGHT SNOW WITH 1-2SM VSBYS
WILL LIKELY STILL BE OCCURRING. ROAD CONDITIONS MAY ALSO BE POOR
ON SECONDARY ROADS...GIVEN THAT 4-6 INCHES WILL HAVE FALLEN OVER
MUCH OF THIS AREA. NW WINDS WILL ALSO BE PICKING UP A BIT...WITH
GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 MPH PERHAPS CAUSING A BIT OF DRIFTING. MAIN
CONCERN IS THAT HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY STILL BE OCCURRING
DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.
ALSO CONSIDERED CANCELLING THE ADVISORY FOR VILAS AND ONEIDA
COUNTIES...BUT VSBYS HAVE DROPPED TO 1-2SM IN SNOW...SO WILL LET
IT RIDE...EVEN THOUGH SNOW TOTALS WILL LIKELY NOT TOP 2 INCHES
THERE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 907 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WAS ONGOING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...AND AMOUNTS AS
HIGH AS 4 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN WAUSHARA COUNTY. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW...WITH SNOWFALL RATES EXCEEDING AN INCH AN HOUR...
SHOULD EXIT NE/EC WI BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT A SECONDARY VORT
MAX WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER INCH OR TWO TO THIS REGION OVERNIGHT.
HAVE BUMPED SNOWFALL TOTALS TO 4-6 INCHES FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM WAUTOMA TO SHAWANO TO MARINETTE...WITH AMOUNTS DROPPING
OFF TO 2-3 INCHES OVER MUCH OF NC/FAR NE WI. NO CHANGES TO THE
HEADLINES NOW...THOUGH GIVING SOME CONSIDERATION TO EXTENDING THE
EXPIRATION TIME TO INCLUDE THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR WORK/SCHOOL.
WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE NEW MODEL DATA AND SEE IF THIS CHANGE IS
WARRANTED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
PCPN IS FILLING IN RAPIDLY AND SPREADING INTO OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...IN RESPONSE TO THE POTENT NEGATIVELY-TILTED S/W
TROF LIFTING OUT OF NORTHERN IL. MOST PLACES APPEAR TO BE GETTING
AN HOUR OR SO OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AT ONSET BEFORE DEEP SATURATION
AND A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OCCURS. NORTHERN WI MAY STILL HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS BEFORE
COMPLETELY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW...SO THEY WILL LIKELY SEE A LIGHT
GLAZING OF ICE INTO THE EVENING. RADAR/SATL AND MESO-MODELS ALL
SUPPORT THE HEAVIEST SNOW MOVG THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE
FCST AREA (ROUGHLY SE OF A LINE FROM MNM-Y50) THROUGH MIDNIGHT...
WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW LIKELY IN THIS REGION.
SUSPECT WE`LL SEE SOME INCH AN HOUR SNOWFALL RATES IN THE FOX
VALLEY/LKSHR AREAS DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING. FARTHER
NORTHWEST...SNOW INTENSITY SHOULD NOT BE AS GREAT...BUT LIGHT
ICING FOLLOWED BY 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS STILL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
THE ADVISORY. WILL LIKELY SEE WIDESPREAD 3-4 INCH TOTALS IN THE
FOX VALLEY/LKSHR AREAS...WITH LOCAL 5 INCH AMOUNTS...BEFORE
THE SNOW TAPERS OFF TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TURNING NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHILE ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS SITUATED
FROM SOUTHWEST TO EAST-CENTRAL WI. NORTH OF THIS LATTER TROUGH...IN
A REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AROUND 850MB...A SWATH OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE FOX VALLEY AND ACROSS
CENTRAL WI. NO REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ON THE ROADWAYS
HOWEVER...AND INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT SLICK SPOTS REMAIN CONFINED
TO UNTREATED SURFACES. STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISSUES RELATED TO
FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FOX VALLEY. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW CONTINUED GROWTH OF THE LOW
LEVEL SATURATED LAYER. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING AS A
RESULT...BUT PLACE HEAVIER EMPHASIS ON THE SNOWFALL ARRIVING
TONIGHT. THE SNOW IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER IOWA AS
INDICATED BY THE STRENGTHENING RADAR RETURNS. AS THE LOW OVER
MISSOURI CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST TONIGHT...THE MAIN FOCUS
REMAINS ON IMPACTS FROM THE ANTICIPATED SNOWFALL.
TONIGHT...MODELS AGREE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM
THE QUAD CITIES TO LAKE HURON TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE LOW...MODERATE
QG FORCING ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL BRING AN INTENSIFYING AREA
OF SNOW NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE. THE
SYSTEM HAS SEVERAL THINGS GOING FOR IT...INCLUDING STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7 C/KM OVER EAST-CENTRAL WI...AND VERY GOOD
UPWARD MOTION IN A RELATIVELY SHALLOW DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
ALTHOUGH THE COLUMN WILL HAVE A NEAR ISOTHERMAL LAYER BETWEEN -5C
AND 0C AT THE START OF THE EVENING...A COOLING THERMAL PROFILE THIS
EVENING SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS AS THE MAIN
BRUNT OF THE STORM ARRIVES. THE MESO MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
TIMING SOME...BRINGING THE MAIN AREA OF SNOWFALL BETWEEN 0-3Z OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI...AND BETWEEN 03-06Z OVER FAR NORTHERN WI.
THE BEST FORCING/MOISTURE/INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE FROM CENTRAL
TO NE WI WHERE WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 2-5 INCHES LOOKS POSSIBLE.
LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH...IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE.
ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL LATE THIS EVENING...LIGHT SNOW
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING...THOUGH WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT LATE INTO
THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.
TUESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING...BUT THE COMMA HEAD
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWLY ROTATING ACROSS THE REGION. PROGGED
SOUNDINGS LOOK NEARLY SATURATED THROUGH THE COLUMN FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING...SO THINK LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE...AND WILL
INCREASE CHANCES. ANY ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
AMOUNTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE VILAS COUNTY SNOW BELT WHERE
TRAJECTORIES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT. THE SNOW WILL
EXIT MOST PLACES DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR THE SNOW BELT.
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. A COUPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH LACK OF
MOISTURE SHOULD MAKE FOR MODEST AMOUNTS. PROBABLY AN INCH OR TWO IN
THE FAR NORTH WITH AN INCH OR LESS FURTHER SOUTH.
ZONAL FLOW FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LOW APPROACHES
FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AS THAT SYSTEM APPROACHES UPPER FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHWEST AND MOISTURE STARTS TO TRANSPORT NORTH TOWARDS
THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. AN ARCTIC HIGH OVER MUCH OF CANADA
SHOULD PROVIDE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR OVER WISCONSIN MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE DIFFERENCES IN WHAT HAPPENS NEXT WITH A
WINTER STORM POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES OR
MIDWEST. PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES ARE LIKELY AS WELL AS TIMING
DIFFERENCES AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CST MON JAN 25 2016
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS
MAY OCCUR NORTHEAST OF GRB FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TUESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING
FOR SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS. NW WINDS WILL PICK UP
AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH
GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KTS EXPECTED.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ022-031-
036>040-045-048>050-073-074.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ005-
010>013-018>021-030-035.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........KIECKBUSCH
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
633 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES MODERATE AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT TUESDAY THAT WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY ... THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FOCUS IS MORE IMPORTANTLY UPON THE
OFFSHORE STORM WHICH IF COMBINING WITH AN ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE
OUT OF THE E GREAT LAKES COULD USHER SOME ADVERSE WEATHER TO OUR
REGION. PERHAPS SOME SHOWERY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND ... THEN
LOOKING MILD AND WET INTO THE COMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE ... NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BEGIN BEFORE DAYBREAK
THOUGH NOT LASTING VERY LONG. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE WELL
ABOVE-NORMAL...WITH SOME READINGS APPROACHING 50 DEGREES OVER THE
E-HALF OF S NEW ENGLAND. FARTHER W...INCREASING CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE
EARLIER AND LIMIT THE WARM-UP... WITH READINGS MORE 38-45 DEGREES.
STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE THIS MORNING. THE 26/00Z GUIDANCE STILL HINTS AT A BRIEF
WINDOW OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING...AS LONG AS LOWER CLOUDS
DEVELOP FAST ENOUGH. BOTH 00Z GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS HINT THE AIR
MIGHT BE A TOUCH TOO DRY FOR THIS TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN. WILL
CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE HRRR AND RAP THIS MORNING FOR ADDITIONAL
CLUES.
GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY NATURE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURRING
THIS MORNING...WILL ONLY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
COVER THIS POSSIBILITY FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN MA.
INCREASING HUMIDITY IN STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY DUE TO THE POTENT JET CONVERGENCE FOCUSED ACROSS
S/SE-PORTIONS OF S NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE APPROACHING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE...BUT SHOULD NOT QUITE GET HERE DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SHOWER THREAT WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE THIS EVENING AS
A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. MAJORITY OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CT/RI AND SE MA THIS EVENING. NOT CONVINCED SHOWERS WILL BE ALL
THAT WIDESPREAD...DESPITE THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH THE COLD
FRONT. ANY SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT WITH
THE FRONT. MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN QUICKLY FROM THE NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE COLDER AIR WILL NOT BE AS QUICK. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND OUR NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS FOR LATE
JANUARY.
WEDNESDAY...
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
IT WILL ALSO MEAN TEMPERATURES WHICH DO NOT RISE MUCH FROM THE
MORNING LOW. SHOULD BE MAINLY A DRY DAY...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT A STRAY FLURRY OR TWO ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES
AS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY SPILL INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS ...
- QUIET DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
- MONITORING A PASSING SET OF STORM SYSTEMS THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
- CLIPPER DISTURBANCE WITH SHOWERY WEATHER SATURDAY AND OVERNIGHT
- LOOKING QUIET AND DRY FOR SUNDAY
- A SERIES OF INSIDE-RUNNER DISTURBANCES FOR NEXT WEEK
*/ OVERVIEW ...
WARMER-WETTER PATTERN INDICATIONS IN THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. DECENT
SIGNAL OF THE STRATOSPHERIC POLAR VORTEX SHIFTING TO THE OPPOSITE-
HALF OF THE N HEMISPHERE. STRONGLY +NAO/+AO TREND WITH A +PNA TREND
RETAINED. WEAK MJO IN THE 3/4 STATE. NO FORECAST INDICATIONS OF DOWN-
STREAM BLOCKING.
OVERALL AN UNFAVORABLE PATTERN FOR ANY INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR S.
WITH NEIGHBORING SEA-SURFACE-TEMPERATURES ABOVE-NORMAL ... AND
PERHAPS A SHIFT IN THE STORM TRACK TO EITHER THE SW-CONUS OR MORE
ZONAL ... BETTER AREAS OF BAROCLINICITY SEEMINGLY SHIFT N/W TOWARDS
THE E GREAT LAKES / ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY ... ESPECIALLY SO WITH
THE EXPECTATION OF A MELTING SNOW PACK ... AS THERE IS A GREATER
POTENTIAL OF WARMER AIR ENCROACHING N.
ENSEMBLE MEAN PREFERENCE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. AN ALTERATION
IN THE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH THE STORM-TRACK SHIFTING
MORE TOWARDS INSIDE-RUNNERS.
*/ DISCUSSION ...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ...
LESSENING NW-FLOW AS WINDS VEER S BENEATH AN INCREASING INFLUENCE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. AIRMASS MODERATING ALOFT ... SHOULD IT REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR ESPECIALLY THURSDAY IT IS MORE LIKELY WE WOULD END UP WARMER
THAN MODEL 2M TEMPERATURES ADVERTISE WITH HIGHS INTO THE 40S ...
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE LIKELIHOOD OF BARE-GROUND ... THE LATE-
JANUARY SUN ANGLE ... AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW TOWARDS THE LATER-
HALF OF THE DAY. AGAIN ... CLOUD DEPENDENT.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ...
26.0Z OPERATIONAL GFS / EC AND 26.0Z GEFS SIGNAL A SWING AND A MISS
AS TO A POTENTIAL OFFSHORE STORM AS N/S-STREAMS PHASE FURTHER DOWN-
STREAM. THOUGH SOME HESITATION EVALUATING THE 25.12Z ECENS. QUITE A
SPREAD AMONG ECENS MEMBERS IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERS IN COMPARISON THE AFOREMENTIONED SUITE OF 26.0Z GUIDANCE.
NOT READY TO GO ALL IN AS THERE IS SOME CONCERN WITH THE S-STREAM
DISTURBANCE BEING CAPTURED TO A DEGREE BENEATH LOWERING HEIGHTS
PARENT TO A NEGATIVELY-TILTING H5 TROUGH. THINKING WE ARE NOT OUT OF
THE WOODS YET. SOME ECENS PROBABILISTIC INDICATIONS OF POTENTIAL
IMPACTS TO S/E-PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND WITH RAIN ALONG THE COASTS
AND MIXED-PRECIPITATION TYPES OVER NEIGHBORING S/E INTERIOR. AND AS
PRIOR FORECASTERS HAVE ALLUDED TO ... THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
INVERTED TROUGH LINKING THE TWO DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE NE-CONUS
PRIOR TO PHASING DOWNSTREAM /THE 26.0Z EC IS PICKING UP ON THIS TO
SOME DEGREE ACROSS E-MAINE/.
KEEP IN MIND WE ARE STILL 3 TO 4 DAYS OUT FROM THE FORECAST TIME-
FRAME AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY HAS NOT YET BEEN WELL-SAMPLED BY LAND-
BASED OBSERVATIONAL NETWORKS. LIKE TO EXERCISE SOME LEVEL OF
CAUTION BY KEEPING WITH A LOW RISK OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
AT A MINIMUM ... WILL SEE LIGHT PRECIPITATION OUTCOMES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SWEEPING N-STREAM DISTURBANCE AND ACCOMPANYING CONTINENTAL-
MARITIME AIRMASS WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. MAY NEED TO
MONITOR FOR THE PRESENCE OF ICE WITHIN THE COLUMN. IN THIS SCENARIO
MOST OF THE FOCUS WOULD BE ALONG THE W-SLOPES OF HIGH TERRAIN.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ALONG WITH PREVAILING S-WINDS. MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND YIELDING WARMER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ...
THOUGH NOT APPEARING RECORD BREAKING JUST YET. CLIPPER-LOW SWEEPS IN
TOWARDS THE LATER-HALF OF THE DAY AND EXITING OVERNIGHT. RAIN / SNOW
OUTCOMES POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATER FOCUS ACROSS THE W-SLOPES OF HIGH
TERRAIN.
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK ...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SERIES OF INSIDE-RUNNER STORM SYSTEMS
WITH ONE DURING THE EARLY WEEK AND ANOTHER AROUND MIDWEEK. A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
AMONG ENSEMBLE / OPERATIONAL MEMBER FORECASTS. KEEPING WITH ENSEMBLE
MEANS ... DOES APPEAR THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM WILL PACK A GREATER PUNCH
AS IT EVOLVES OUT OF THE SW-CONUS. PER TRENDS AND EVALUATING CIPS
ANALOGS ... THERE DOES APPEAR THE GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOWERING CIGS W TO E WITH A MIX LOW-END VFR / MVFR. ACCOMPANYING
SCT -SHRA THE BETTER CHANCE OF WHICH WILL BE ACROSS S/SE TERMINALS
OF S NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS THE LATER-HALF OF THE DAY. IN ADDITION
WILL ALSO SEE LLWS OUT OF THE SW AT 2 KFT AGL 35 TO 45 KTS WHEREVER
WINDS ARE LIGHT AT THE SURFACE
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW-END VFR MIXED WITH MVFR. ISOLATED IFR MAINLY OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN. CONTINUED SCT -SHRA FOR S/SE-TERMINALS. CONTINUED SW-FLOW
WITH A LESSENING RISK OF LLWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEGINNING TO
LIFT AND IMPROVE BY MORNING AS WINDS BACK OUT OF THE W.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. BREEZY W-WINDS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT / ...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LIGHT W-WINDS VEERING S INCREASING LATE THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ... MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW-END VFR / MVFR CIGS. FOCUS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND TOWARDS S/E-
TERMINALS OF S NEW ENGLAND. RAIN / SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION WITH SW-FLOW BACKING NW.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ... MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR POSSIBLE AS SOME SHOWERY
WEATHER CROSS THE REGION. W-WINDS VEERING SW.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
SW WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS. EXPECTING SW GUSTS UP TO 30 KT DEVELOPING TUE
MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. A MODERATE RISK FOR GALES OVER THE EASTERN WATERS
CONTINUES...SO GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THERE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS. VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...WNW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. ROUGH SEAS WILL TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT / ...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LIGHT W-WINDS VEERING S INCREASING LATE THURSDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS OVER THE E-WATERS. WAVES DIMINISHING INITIALLY FROM EARLIER
ACTIVITY ... HOLDING AROUND 4 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ... MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE E GREAT
LAKES WILL LEAD TO A POTENTIAL MASHUP OF WEATHER OUTCOMES OVER THE
WATERS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. PERHAPS SOME VISIBILITY ISSUES
BUT AS THE STORM EXITS ANTICIPATE W/NW-WINDS TO RAMP UP WITH GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS BUILDING SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.
GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE. LOW RISK PRESENTLY FOR GALES.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ... MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS VEERING SW AHEAD OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. GUSTS OVERALL FORECAST UP TO 20 KTS. THIS WILL KEEP
SEAS FROM DIMINISHING QUICKLY. WILL HOLD WAVE HEIGHTS 4 TO 5 FEET
OVER A MAJORITY OF TIME ON THE OUTER WATERS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
251-255-256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...BELK/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...BELK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
928 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.UPDATE...
HI-RES MODELS ARE DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE CURRENT PRECIP TRENDS.
THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE EDGING OUT THE LOCAL WRF...JUST A SMIDGE.
HAVE FOLLOWED THE HRRR TRENDS CLOSELY...EVEN INTO TOMORROW.
ALSO...UPPED POPS TO 100 PERCENT IN THE CORE OF THE LINE.
AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS...THE HI-RES MODELS ARE CLEARING
OUT ANY PRECIP BEFORE THE REALLY COLD TEMPS REACH THE NORTHERN
ZONES. PLUS...MODELS DID NOT DO A GREAT JOB WITH THE OVERNIGHT
MINS UP NORTH...AND THAT AREA HAS STARTED OUT WARMER THAN
PROJECTED.
HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO NEEDED A LITTLE
ADJUSTING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
NEAR TERM CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR ANY LIGHT FZRA OVER
FAR NE GA. CONTINUING TO MONITOR TEMPS AND APPEARS ALL AREAS
REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING. ACTUALLY AREAS CLOSEST TO FREEZING ARE
BANKS COUNTY...FAYETTE COUNTY AND PARTS OF MIDDLE GA MAINLY NEAR
MILLEDGEVILLE...ALSO JUST OUTSIDE OF CWA IN RABUN COUNTY. BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS...DOES APPEAR THAT PRECIP WILL NOT REACH THESE COOL
SPOTS IN TIME TO PRODUCE ANY LIGHT FZRA. HAVE INCLUDED SLT CHC FOR
MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/FZRA NEAR BANKS COUNTY THRU 13Z BUT NO MENTION
ANYWHERE ELSE.
OTHERWISE...STILL ON TRACK FOR RAIN EVENT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS A LITTLE
LOWER THAN PREV MODEL CYCLES. TOTAL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 1
INCH. FRONT SHOULD SLIDE INTO NW GA TODAY AND REACH ATL METRO BY
SUNSET. TEMPS QUITE A BIT COOLER BUT REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING.
DRYING BEHIND FRONT AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD DIMINISH
PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THRU THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. HAVE
TAPERED OFF POPS QUICKLY AND MATCHES 00Z HIRES MODEL GUIDANCE WELL.
SNELSON
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT MOVES IN DURING THE SHORT TERM EXITS THE
CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM EXITING
THE REGION. THEY BOTH SHOW THE CLOSED LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER
CENTRAL FL THU MORNING MOVING RAPIDLY UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO
JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z FRI. AS THIS LOW CENTER
MOVES NE IT PULLS THE LINGERING COLD FRONT OFF THE GA COAST
ALLOWING A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO BUILD NE OUT OF THE WESTERN
GULF. THIS RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE GA/FL BORDER BY SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING KEEPING THINGS DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING INCREASED CLOUDS TO NORTH GA
SUNDAY AND INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY. AS OF RIGHT NOW TEMPS
STAY WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP FREEZING OF FROZEN PRECIP OUT OF THE
FORECAST SO ONLY GOING WITH RAIN FOR DAY 7 FOR NOW.
01
AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MVFR CIGS AROUND 5000-6000FT NOW WIDESPREAD BUT JUST NORTH OF
KATL. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO PUSH SOUTH. SFC WINDS STILL ON TRACK
TO SWITCH TO SW AROUND 18Z. PUSHED UP TIMING OF RAIN AN HOUR TO
AROUND 23Z AT ATL METRO AIRPORTS BASED ON LATEST TIMING AND RADAR
TRENDS. IFR CIGS/VSBYS ALSO LIKELY AFTER 06Z WED AT MOST SITES.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
SNELSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 58 45 54 35 / 50 100 50 10
ATLANTA 58 41 48 35 / 70 100 50 5
BLAIRSVILLE 51 35 46 28 / 90 100 10 5
CARTERSVILLE 58 36 47 29 / 100 100 10 5
COLUMBUS 61 47 53 37 / 40 100 90 10
GAINESVILLE 55 41 50 34 / 70 100 30 5
MACON 63 48 55 40 / 20 90 100 20
ROME 53 36 47 27 / 100 100 10 5
PEACHTREE CITY 59 41 50 33 / 70 100 60 10
VIDALIA 68 51 60 45 / 5 30 30 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
806 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TODAY FOLLOWED BY PERIODIC
SNOW SHOWER CHANCES AND SEASONALLY COLD TEMPERATURES THE REST OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE THIS MORNING TO MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING
OF POPS...TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS AS THE SECOND LINE OF
SHOWERS IS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE CWA FASTER THAN FORECAST. USED
THE LATEST HRRR TO ADJUST THE TIMING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT HAS SCOURED OUT
THE COLD AIR FROM MOST OF THE VALLEYS...WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
LOCATIONS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30`S.
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT ANALYZED BACK OVER INDIANA TO PASS THE
REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL
AFTER THAT TIME. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET PRESENT JUST ABOVE THE DECK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
RIDGES AND ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...BUT WILL DROP AS FAR
SOUTH AS PITTSBURGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES OVERHEAD. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT DUE
TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING.
RIDGING WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY SEVERAL WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION ALONG THE UNITED
STATES/CANADIAN BORDER. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR COLDER
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS
SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE...MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT AT ALL
TERMINALS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH WINDS THEN
TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS 20-25 KT. BEHIND THE
FRONT...STRATOCUMULUS APPEARS LIKELY TO KEEP MVFR CIGS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AROUND
FKL/DUJ.
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
526 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
Post frontal stratus overspreads the area this morning with
temperatures below freezing. This stratus deck is only a few hundred
meters thick according to RAP forecast soundings, with dry air
within the dendritic growth layer, so snow flurries are unlikely
with any of this stratus through the day. There was some hope
earlier that perhaps these clouds would mix out today, given that
forecast soundings indicated a T/Td spread within the cloud bearing
level, but latest RAP soundings for today continue to indicate
saturation through the day, and thus no breaks in the cloud cover.
Considering how thin the saturated layer is, it wouldn`t be
inconceivable to see a few temporary breaks in the clouds through
the day. At any rate, the good news is that the surface ridge
responsible for this latest push of cold air will push to the east,
with the southerly wind bearing back side of the ridge moving in for
Wednesday. The switch in winds will allow for a gradual warm up for
the rest of the week, starting with 30s and 40s for Wednesday, then
warming into the 50s by Friday. H85 temperatures for Friday could
push the double digits (C), so with any half decent mixing in the
lower levels temperatures could conceivably shoot through the 50s
and land in the 60s, mainly along and south of Interstate 70. Even
north of I-70 there could be temperatures in the 50s. Given the
zonal mid level flow with little signs of any support for ascent
expect the remainder of the week to be dry. The weekend should see
temperatures remain well above seasonal averages, with dry weather
through at least Saturday. By Sunday hints of a pattern change
appears to be in the works.
By Sunday, both EC and GFS are indicating a deep western trough
carving its way into the otherwise zonal flow aloft. Ahead of this
trough a surface low will glide through the area, generally without
event, although north of the low there could be some very light
precipitation late Sunday into Monday. However, the bigger event
next week would be in the Monday-Tuesday time frame as the
previously mentioned trough ejects eastward. This trough has the
potential to cause some high impact winter weather across portions
of the Great Plains and MO/MS River Valleys early/middle next week.
While the models have been generally inconsistent in resolving this
trough, there seems to be a better signal or momentum within the GFS
and EC to take the system on what seems to be the more preferred
track for winter storms this season, which is through northern
Kansas and eastern Nebraska. This track would generally leave most
of NE Kansas and NW Missouri out of its cross hairs. However, the
12z EC reminded us that the track will still likely take a few
twists and turns before being more finely resolved, likely sometime
this weekend. While the 12z EC indicated a track that would bring a
significant winter storm to this area, the 00z GFS/EC have generally
indicated the track of the system closer to what the previous runs
prior to the 12z EC indicated, which is more of a northern track. At
any rate, much about this potential system next week is up in the
air, and uncertainty with respect to any potential impacts is very
high.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 523 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
Expect the stratus to hang in there through most of the day at the
terminals. Despite no real sign of the cloud deck breaking up, the
cloud layer appears to be rather thin (perhaps only a few hundred
feet thick), so it`s conceivable that there could be some temporary
breaks in the clouds. That being said, felt prevailing MVFR was the
way to go for the time being, and perhaps some TEMPO groups for mid
day breaks is the way to go for those temporary periods. There are
hints of clouds breaking up as early as 00z, but other trends say
closer to 06z. Thereafter it appears skies will be clear for the
duration of this forecast period.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
520 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUDS.
THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE ICING AND SNOW TO THE LOCAL AREA
MONDAY IS NOW PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SNOW AMOUNTS (IN
INCHES) WERE 0.3 AT OMA/3.1 AT LNK/0.1 AT OFK . THAT BRINGS THE
SEASONAL TOTALS TO 21.1/13.2/24.5 RESPECTIVELY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION AND NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...WILL BRING SOME REINFORCING COLD AIR INTO IOWA. A BAND OF
CLOUDS IN THIS NORTHWEST SHOULD PERSIST...THEN TEND TO BREAK UP
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM HAD SOME CAPE
ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE HRRR WAS INDICATING SOME
FLURRIES POSSIBLE. WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW COVERAGE. WITH THE
CLOUDS/SOME BREAKS AND RECENT SNOW...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S TO LOWER 30S CAN BE EXPECTED.
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WE ARE LOOKING FOR A LESS ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN AND FOR TEMPERATURES TO TRY TO WARM INTO THE 30S AND 40S.
SOME WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK H85 TROUGH
PASSAGE. ANY COOLING IS SHORT-LIVED AS WARM WEDGE OF AIR ARRIVES
FRIDAY. NOT SURE THAT WE WILL MAKE THE 50S FRIDAY...HOWEVER
NEIGHBORS DO HAVE 50S IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
...POTENTIAL WINTER STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK...STILL A LONG WAY OUT
THOUGH...
A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY AND COULD AFFECT AREAS TOWARD SIOUX CITY...HOWEVER LOOKS
MAINLY DRY LOCALLY. A STRONG 130KT JET PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND BY FRIDAY NIGHT HAS MADE IT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THE EC HAS STRONG WARMING WITH RIPPLE IN
THE FLOW AND A THERMAL GRADIENT WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A
TROUGH HAS MOVED ONSHORE.
MONDAY AND ON GROUNDHOG`S DAY...THE MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL
STORM TRACKING FROM THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION INTO THE PLAINS. THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM COULD HAVE MIXED PRECIPITATION...BEFORE IT TURNS TO
ALL SNOW. THE 00Z LONG-RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. SINCE THE
ORIGINS OF THE STORM ARE STILL SEVERAL THOUSAND MILES OFF THE
WEST COAST AND WILL NOT COME ONSHORE UNTIL SUNDAY...IT IS STILL A
LONG WAYS OUT AND THE EVOLUTION CAN CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES MAINLY 1500-2500 FEET BLANKET ERN NE AND ALL
THREE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THESE CLOUDS. WE EXPECT
THAT IN GENERAL...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE DAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DECREASE TODAY...THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS EVENING. WENT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
514 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
THE RAP MODEL MOVES THE BANK OF STRATUS ACROSS NCNTL NEB VERY
SLOWLY EAST TODAY AND PRESUMABLY INTO THE MISSOURI BASIN TONIGHT.
THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY. A BLEND
OF 4 MOS DATA SETS PLUS BIAS CORRECTION SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 40S SOUTH TO LOWER 30S NORTH.
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS MORNING
WILL BE OVER MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
850-700MB WINDS INCREASE TO 25 TO 35KT TONIGHT WITH WARM AIR
ADVANCING SIMILARLY. H850 TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 2 TO 5C. THIS
WOULD LIKELY LIMIT LOWS TO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. NO SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
WARM UP CONTINUES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS WESTERN RIDGE
EXPANDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE WARM
TEMPS WITH 850 MB TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
0C...WHILE THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENT WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 10C
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NOT SURPRISING THE CORRESPONDING MOS
GUIDANCE IS COOLER FOR THE MEX. BELIEVE THE GFS COOL DOWN IS
SOMEWHAT RELATED TO THE RECENT SNOW FALL. SOME MELTING OCCURRED
YESTERDAY AND EXPECT MORE EACH PASSING DAY SO BY FRIDAY MOST
AREAS WILL SEE LITTLE...THUS WILL CONTINUE FORECAST SIMILAR TO
GOING...WHICH IS CLOSER TO WARMER EC.
NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED SATURDAY. MODELS ARE WAVERING
ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WITH A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST ON
PRECIP. TEMPS WILL BE COOLING...HOWEVER AFTERNOON STILL WARMS
ABOVE FREEZING AND RAIN OR A MIX IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST FOR
THE AFTERNOON.
A SECONDARY WAVE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A
BETTER SHOT AT PRECIP. AGAIN TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY AS AFTERNOON TEMPS NEAR 40 COULD SEE A MIX BAG FOR PRECIP
TYPE.
EARLY NEXT WEEK A TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS REGION.
MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. MODELS HAVE NOT
SHOWN GREAT CONSISTENCY OVER THE PASS SEVERAL RUNS WITH THE
TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND WILL GO WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE
MODEL BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
THE BANK OF MVFR CIGS OVER AND NEAR KONL MOVES VERY SLOWLY EAST
TODAY ACCORDING TO THE RAP MODEL AND THE SREF. THE MVFR COULD VERY
WELL LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
952 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 19 UTC ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AS WEBCAM AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THROUGH 1545 UTC
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN EXPANSION OF THE DENSE FOG.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 844 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
ADDED FOG TO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA PER WEBCAM AND SURFACE
OBSERVATION TRENDS THROUGH 1430 UTC. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS THIS MORNING AS THE 12 UTC NAM NEST AND 12-13 UTC HRRR
ITERATIONS IN THEIR CEILING AND VISIBILITY FIELDS SUGGEST THIS FOG
AND STRATUS MAY LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
WE ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH 17 UTC OVER WEST
CENTRAL AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND...FROM WATFORD CITY TO BEACH AND
BOWMAN...WITH THIS UPDATE. THAT WAS BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS
AND HRRR SIMULATIONS. WE ALSO CUT BACK THE MENTION OF FLURRIES IN
THE FORECAST SO THAT IT ONLY EXTENDS FROM CROSBY OVER TOWARD RUGBY
AND JAMESTOWN BASED ON AWOS/ASOS TRENDS IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
NO MAJOR FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
CURRENTLY...STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION. EXTENSIVE
AREA OF STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION IS
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHICH HAS BEEN CLEAR FOR THE BETTER PART
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. STRATUS IS SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTH AND
WEST...BUT IT NOW APPEARS THE SOUTHWEST CORNER WILL REMAIN STRATUS
FREE THIS MORNING.
FINALLY EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO SLOWLY SCATTER OUT AND LIFT
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ALLOWING
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S EAST WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN FOR MOST OF
THE AFTERNOON...TO THE LOW 30S SOUTHWEST WHICH REMAINS STRATUS
FREE.
CLIPPER SYSTEM ADVECTING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA WILL BRING STRONG WAA AND BREEZY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
THIS EVENING WEST AND OVERNIGHT CENTRAL AND EAST. EXPECT THIS TO
RESULT IN STEADY TO RISING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS LIKELY RECORDING THEIR 24 HOUR HIGHS MID TO LATE
EVENING. MODELS BRING SOME LIGHT QPF TO MY NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES...AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION...AFTER 06Z. THERMAL
PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST FREEZING RAIN. MENTIONED THIS IN THE HWO
FOR TONIGHT/WED MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK...BEFORE A COOL-
ARRIVES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER TRACKS NORTH OF THE STATE WITH A CORE OF 50
KT 850-MB WINDS ON ITS SOUTHWESTERN FLANK. WE ARE A BIT CONCERNED
ABOUT HEADLINE-WORTHY WINDS...BUT THE 00 UTC MODEL SUITE PROVIDED
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THAT GIVEN 1/ A MAXIMUM MIXING DEPTH UNDER 850
MB...2/ A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...AND 3/ SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES OF 3 MB/3 HOURS OR LESS. HAVING SAID THAT...THE PROBABILITY
OF ADVISORY-TYPE WINDS WILL BE GREATEST /THOUGH SUBJECTIVELY ONLY
NEAR 40 PERCENT/ FROM MINOT TOWARD JAMESTOWN WHERE LOW-LEVEL COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE PROMINENT. ANOTHER CLIPPER IS
THEN EXPECTED TO BRING MORE GUSTY WINDS ON FRIDAY. MILD WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THIS REGIME...WITH HIGHS
WARMEST /IN THE 40S F/ OVER SOUTHWESTERN ND.
BY THIS WEEKEND...FLOW ALOFT WILL DEAMPLIFY AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL
AS A PACIFIC TROUGH REACHES THE WEST COAST AND THEN MOVES EASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 00 UTC GFS
AND ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLES SUGGEST MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THAT
TROUGH WILL STAY SOUTH OF ND...BUT THE MULTI-MODEL BLEND THAT WAS
USED TO BUILD THE FORECAST STILL SUPPORTED LOW-END PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN SEVERAL PERIODS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST BOTH DUE TO
THE FRIDAY CLIPPER PASSAGE AND THEN THE PATTERN TRANSITION. HIGHS
WILL FALL BACK TOWARD NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 951 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT KISN THIS MORNING IN FOG AND STRATUS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS DOES REMAIN SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. ELSEWHERE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...A
SLOW CLEARING/SCATTERING TREND IN MVFR/IFR FOG AND STRATUS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ001-009-
017-018.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
848 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 844 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
ADDED FOG TO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA PER WEBCAM AND SURFACE
OBSERVATION TRENDS THROUGH 1430 UTC. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS THIS MORNING AS THE 12 UTC NAM NEST AND 12-13 UTC HRRR
ITERATIONS IN THEIR CEILING AND VISIBILITY FIELDS SUGGEST THIS FOG
AND STRATUS MAY LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
WE ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH 17 UTC OVER WEST
CENTRAL AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND...FROM WATFORD CITY TO BEACH AND
BOWMAN...WITH THIS UPDATE. THAT WAS BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS
AND HRRR SIMULATIONS. WE ALSO CUT BACK THE MENTION OF FLURRIES IN
THE FORECAST SO THAT IT ONLY EXTENDS FROM CROSBY OVER TOWARD RUGBY
AND JAMESTOWN BASED ON AWOS/ASOS TRENDS IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
NO MAJOR FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
CURRENTLY...STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION. EXTENSIVE
AREA OF STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION IS
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHICH HAS BEEN CLEAR FOR THE BETTER PART
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. STRATUS IS SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTH AND
WEST...BUT IT NOW APPEARS THE SOUTHWEST CORNER WILL REMAIN STRATUS
FREE THIS MORNING.
FINALLY EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO SLOWLY SCATTER OUT AND LIFT
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ALLOWING
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S EAST WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN FOR MOST OF
THE AFTERNOON...TO THE LOW 30S SOUTHWEST WHICH REMAINS STRATUS
FREE.
CLIPPER SYSTEM ADVECTING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA WILL BRING STRONG WAA AND BREEZY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
THIS EVENING WEST AND OVERNIGHT CENTRAL AND EAST. EXPECT THIS TO
RESULT IN STEADY TO RISING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS LIKELY RECORDING THEIR 24 HOUR HIGHS MID TO LATE
EVENING. MODELS BRING SOME LIGHT QPF TO MY NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES...AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION...AFTER 06Z. THERMAL
PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST FREEZING RAIN. MENTIONED THIS IN THE HWO
FOR TONIGHT/WED MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK...BEFORE A COOL-
ARRIVES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER TRACKS NORTH OF THE STATE WITH A CORE OF 50
KT 850-MB WINDS ON ITS SOUTHWESTERN FLANK. WE ARE A BIT CONCERNED
ABOUT HEADLINE-WORTHY WINDS...BUT THE 00 UTC MODEL SUITE PROVIDED
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THAT GIVEN 1/ A MAXIMUM MIXING DEPTH UNDER 850
MB...2/ A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...AND 3/ SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES OF 3 MB/3 HOURS OR LESS. HAVING SAID THAT...THE PROBABILITY
OF ADVISORY-TYPE WINDS WILL BE GREATEST /THOUGH SUBJECTIVELY ONLY
NEAR 40 PERCENT/ FROM MINOT TOWARD JAMESTOWN WHERE LOW-LEVEL COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE PROMINENT. ANOTHER CLIPPER IS
THEN EXPECTED TO BRING MORE GUSTY WINDS ON FRIDAY. MILD WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THIS REGIME...WITH HIGHS
WARMEST /IN THE 40S F/ OVER SOUTHWESTERN ND.
BY THIS WEEKEND...FLOW ALOFT WILL DEAMPLIFY AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL
AS A PACIFIC TROUGH REACHES THE WEST COAST AND THEN MOVES EASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 00 UTC GFS
AND ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLES SUGGEST MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THAT
TROUGH WILL STAY SOUTH OF ND...BUT THE MULTI-MODEL BLEND THAT WAS
USED TO BUILD THE FORECAST STILL SUPPORTED LOW-END PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN SEVERAL PERIODS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST BOTH DUE TO
THE FRIDAY CLIPPER PASSAGE AND THEN THE PATTERN TRANSITION. HIGHS
WILL FALL BACK TOWARD NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 844 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT KISN THIS MORNING IN FOG AND STRATUS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS DOES REMAIN SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. ELSEWHERE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...A
SLOW CLEARING/SCATTERING TREND IN MVFR/IFR FOG AND STRATUS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
645 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
WE ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH 17 UTC OVER WEST
CENTRAL AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND...FROM WATFORD CITY TO BEACH AND
BOWMAN...WITH THIS UPDATE. THAT WAS BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS
AND HRRR SIMULATIONS. WE ALSO CUT BACK THE MENTION OF FLURRIES IN
THE FORECAST SO THAT IT ONLY EXTENDS FROM CROSBY OVER TOWARD RUGBY
AND JAMESTOWN BASED ON AWOS/ASOS TRENDS IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
NO MAJOR FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
CURRENTLY...STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION. EXTENSIVE
AREA OF STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION IS
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHICH HAS BEEN CLEAR FOR THE BETTER PART
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. STRATUS IS SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTH AND
WEST...BUT IT NOW APPEARS THE SOUTHWEST CORNER WILL REMAIN STRATUS
FREE THIS MORNING.
FINALLY EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO SLOWLY SCATTER OUT AND LIFT
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ALLOWING
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S EAST WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN FOR MOST OF
THE AFTERNOON...TO THE LOW 30S SOUTHWEST WHICH REMAINS STRATUS
FREE.
CLIPPER SYSTEM ADVECTING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA WILL BRING STRONG WAA AND BREEZY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
THIS EVENING WEST AND OVERNIGHT CENTRAL AND EAST. EXPECT THIS TO
RESULT IN STEADY TO RISING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS LIKELY RECORDING THEIR 24 HOUR HIGHS MID TO LATE
EVENING. MODELS BRING SOME LIGHT QPF TO MY NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES...AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION...AFTER 06Z. THERMAL
PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST FREEZING RAIN. MENTIONED THIS IN THE HWO
FOR TONIGHT/WED MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK...BEFORE A COOL-
ARRIVES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER TRACKS NORTH OF THE STATE WITH A CORE OF 50
KT 850-MB WINDS ON ITS SOUTHWESTERN FLANK. WE ARE A BIT CONCERNED
ABOUT HEADLINE-WORTHY WINDS...BUT THE 00 UTC MODEL SUITE PROVIDED
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THAT GIVEN 1/ A MAXIMUM MIXING DEPTH UNDER 850
MB...2/ A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...AND 3/ SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES OF 3 MB/3 HOURS OR LESS. HAVING SAID THAT...THE PROBABILITY
OF ADVISORY-TYPE WINDS WILL BE GREATEST /THOUGH SUBJECTIVELY ONLY
NEAR 40 PERCENT/ FROM MINOT TOWARD JAMESTOWN WHERE LOW-LEVEL COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE PROMINENT. ANOTHER CLIPPER IS
THEN EXPECTED TO BRING MORE GUSTY WINDS ON FRIDAY. MILD WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THIS REGIME...WITH HIGHS
WARMEST /IN THE 40S F/ OVER SOUTHWESTERN ND.
BY THIS WEEKEND...FLOW ALOFT WILL DEAMPLIFY AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL
AS A PACIFIC TROUGH REACHES THE WEST COAST AND THEN MOVES EASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 00 UTC GFS
AND ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLES SUGGEST MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THAT
TROUGH WILL STAY SOUTH OF ND...BUT THE MULTI-MODEL BLEND THAT WAS
USED TO BUILD THE FORECAST STILL SUPPORTED LOW-END PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN SEVERAL PERIODS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST BOTH DUE TO
THE FRIDAY CLIPPER PASSAGE AND THEN THE PATTERN TRANSITION. HIGHS
WILL FALL BACK TOWARD NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
MVFR-IFR CIGS IN PLACE ALL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION KDIK AT
THE MOMENT. KDIK MAY ALSO TREND FROM SKC TO MVFR-IFR CIGS 13-15Z
THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TODAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AT KISN-KDIK IN THE MORNING...AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY
AFTERNOON KMOT AND KBIS...AND MID-LATE AFTERNOON AT KJMS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...NH/CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
922 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE
LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL PASS TO
THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON THURSDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SECOND CLIPPER ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRONT JUST WEST OF AKRON CANTON AREA. FEW SHOWERS NEAR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BUT LITTLE ELSE. REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THE
WESTERN HALF...AND LOWERED POPS IN THE EAST TO 30 POP FOR 930
UPDATE.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN INDIANA AND SHOULD
BE TO THE I-75 CORRIDOR BY 12Z. JUST A FEW SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON
RADAR BUT THE LATEST RUC AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE SHOWERS
POPPING UP AS THE FRONT ARRIVES. COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH 50 PERCENT OF LESS PRECIP CHANCES. A DRY SLOT
BEHIND THE LOW WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. DO NOT
EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR BUT A FEW BREAKS CERTAINLY ARE POSSIBLE.
PRETTY GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS
OCCURRING EARLY. GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE WAY TOO LOW SO HAVE TRIED TO
INTERPOLATE CURRENT TEMPS TO WHAT THEY WILL BE AT 12Z AND HAVE
USED THOSE NUMBERS FOR TODAYS HIGHS. CRITICAL THICKNESSES
EVENTUALLY GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW LATE IN THE DAY. BY THAT TIME
HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE VERY LITTLE PRECIP. EXPECT MOST OF THE
AREA TO BE COMPLETELY DRY FROM LATE MORNING ON. READINGS BY SUNSET
SHOULD IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BY 00Z 850 MB TEMPS OVER NW PA WILL BE ABOUT NEG 9 WITH TEMPS
DIPPING TO NEG 12 BY 12Z. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT
BUT NOTHING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. WE WILL ALSO START OUT WITH A
REALLY LOW INVERSION THIS EVENING SO THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE WILL
BE SLOW TO GET GOING TONIGHT. A SECONDARY TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
ROTATE ACROSS THE LATE TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE TO GET A FEW WEAK BANDS SET UP. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS BUT ACCUMS OF ONLY AN INCH OF TWO. AWAY FROM THE LAKE
EFFECT AREAS SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY OVERCAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TO MAKE SURE NO SNOW FROM LAKE MICHIGAN MAKES IT TO THE KTOL AREA
IN THE WNW FLOW. THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BY SUNSET THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL BE OVER EVER IN NW
PA. MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE AWAY FROM THE LAKE. THE MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT TRACKING A CLIPPER TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON
THURSDAY. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH OF THE LAKE BUT WILL HANG ON TO A SMALL
MENTION MAINLY IN NW PA IN CASE SOME LIGHT SNOW DOES DEVELOP. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER APPROACHING
FROM THE NW AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND LIFT
NORTH ON SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. MODELS LIFT THIS FEATURE NORTH FAIRLY QUICKLY BUT THAT WILL
BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE GET CLOSER AS WARM FRONTS CAN
STRUGGLE TO MOVE NORTH OF THE COLD LAKES. KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW 40S ON
SATURDAY MOST AREAS AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT.
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW
MORE DEGREES DESPITE AMPLE CLOUD COVER. NOT CLEAR AT THIS POINT IF
THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA OR STALL ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THIS DOES SET THE STAGE FOR A WARM
AND MOIST PATTERN INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THIS BOUNDARY
LINGERS NEAR THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PROVIDING A SUPPLY OF MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING STRONG GUSTY
WINDS TO SEVERAL OF THE TERMINALS. LOCATIONS IN THE WEST AND ALONG
THE LAKESHORE MAY EXPERIENCE GUSTS OF 30-35 KNOTS AS WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...MAINLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD START TO LOSE THE GUSTINESS BY 22Z...EXCEPT
AT ERI WHERE BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THIS
MORNING. CEILINGS WILL BE MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...FLUCTUATING
NEAR 2K FEET. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ERI
OVERNIGHT...WITH CHANCES INCREASING AFTER 09Z.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY. NON VFR RETURNS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT FRONT. NON VFR
AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 25
KNOTS ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE AND 35 KNOT GALES ON THE EAST END
OF THE LAKE. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 11 FEET ON THE FAR EAST END OF
THE LAKE. WINDS WILL DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON THURSDAY AND PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE
EARLY FRIDAY. A RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ061-148-149-168-
169.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...DJB/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
703 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE
LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL PASS TO
THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON THURSDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SECOND CLIPPER ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN INDIANA AND SHOULD
BE TO THE I-75 CORRIDOR BY 12Z. JUST A FEW SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON
RADAR BUT THE LATEST RUC AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE SHOWERS
POPPING UP AS THE FRONT ARRIVES. COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH 50 PERCENT OF LESS PRECIP CHANCES. A DRY SLOT BEHIND
THE LOW WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT
SKIES TO CLEAR BUT A FEW BREAKS CERTAINLY ARE POSSIBLE. PRETTY
GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS OCCURRING
EARLY. GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE WAY TOO LOW SO HAVE TRIED TO
INTERPOLATE CURRENT TEMPS TO WHAT THEY WILL BE AT 12Z AND HAVE
USED THOSE NUMBERS FOR TODAYS HIGHS. CRITICAL THICKNESSES
EVENTUALLY GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW LATE IN THE DAY. BY THAT TIME
HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE VERY LITTLE PRECIP. EXPECT MOST OF THE
AREA TO BE COMPLETELY DRY FROM LATE MORNING ON. READINGS BY SUNSET
SHOULD IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BY 00Z 850 MB TEMPS OVER NW PA WILL BE ABOUT NEG 9 WITH TEMPS
DIPPING TO NEG 12 BY 12Z. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT
BUT NOTHING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. WE WILL ALSO START OUT WITH A
REALLY LOW INVERSION THIS EVENING SO THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE WILL
BE SLOW TO GET GOING TONIGHT. A SECONDARY TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
ROTATE ACROSS THE LATE TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE TO GET A FEW WEAK BANDS SET UP. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS BUT ACCUMS OF ONLY AN INCH OF TWO. AWAY FROM THE LAKE
EFFECT AREAS SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY OVERCAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TO MAKE SURE NO SNOW FROM LAKE MICHIGAN MAKES IT TO THE KTOL AREA
IN THE WNW FLOW. THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BY SUNSET THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL BE OVER EVER IN NW
PA. MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE AWAY FROM THE LAKE. THE MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT TRACKING A CLIPPER TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON
THURSDAY. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH OF THE LAKE BUT WILL HANG ON TO A SMALL
MENTION MAINLY IN NW PA IN CASE SOME LIGHT SNOW DOES DEVELOP. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER APPROACHING
FROM THE NW AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND LIFT
NORTH ON SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. MODELS LIFT THIS FEATURE NORTH FAIRLY QUICKLY BUT THAT WILL
BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE GET CLOSER AS WARM FRONTS CAN
STRUGGLE TO MOVE NORTH OF THE COLD LAKES. KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW 40S ON
SATURDAY MOST AREAS AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT.
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW
MORE DEGREES DESPITE AMPLE CLOUD COVER. NOT CLEAR AT THIS POINT IF
THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA OR STALL ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THIS DOES SET THE STAGE FOR A WARM
AND MOIST PATTERN INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THIS BOUNDARY
LINGERS NEAR THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PROVIDING A SUPPLY OF MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING STRONG GUSTY
WINDS TO SEVERAL OF THE TERMINALS. LOCATIONS IN THE WEST AND ALONG
THE LAKESHORE MAY EXPERIENCE GUSTS OF 30-35 KNOTS AS WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...MAINLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD START TO LOSE THE GUSTINESS BY 22Z...EXCEPT
AT ERI WHERE BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THIS
MORNING. CEILINGS WILL BE MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...FLUCTUATING
NEAR 2K FEET. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ERI
OVERNIGHT...WITH CHANCES INCREASING AFTER 09Z.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY. NON VFR RETURNS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT FRONT. NON VFR
AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 25
KNOTS ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE AND 35 KNOT GALES ON THE EAST END
OF THE LAKE. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 11 FEET ON THE FAR EAST END OF
THE LAKE. WINDS WILL DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON THURSDAY AND PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE
EARLY FRIDAY. A RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LEZ061-148-149-168-169.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
654 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN WITH POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. AFTER A RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND SEASONABLY COLDER AND AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.
THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1020Z...RADAR TRENDS SHOW VERY LIGHT RETURNS CONTINUING TO PUSH
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-LWR SUSQ VALLEY. TEMPERATURES DROPPED
PRECIPITOUSLY EARLIER UNDER CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND FRESH DEEP
SNOWPACK. WITH RISK OF VERY LIGHT/SPOTTY ICE GLAZE /MAINLY TRACE
AMOUNTS/ LOOMING ON THE HORIZON JUST TO THE WEST...HAVE EXPANDED
FZRA ADVY INTO ALL SE ZONES. HAVE ALSO CANCELLED THE ADVY FOR THE
LAURELS AS 10Z MESO OBS SHOW TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING NOW.
PREVIOUS...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN PA INTO MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SITES ALONG AND WEST OF RT219 HAVE BEEN STEADILY WARMING OVERNIGHT
RUNNING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. A RELATIVELY
MILD SW WIND HAS PROPELLED READINGS INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS AT 08Z. MAIN CONCERN REMAINS THE RISK FOR LIGHT
ICE GLAZE JUST EAST OF ALLEGHENY FRONT ACROSS THE INTERIOR CENTRAL
RIDGES AND PERHAPS INTO PORTIONS OF THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. THE
LATEST HRRR HOLDS ONTO LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA
THRU 12Z.
PA DOT REPORTED EARLIER THAT ROAD TEMPS ARE AROUND 30F. QUESTION
IS IF WAA PRECIP CAN SURVIVE DOWNSLOPING EAST THE ALLEGHENIES
INTO DRIER AIR. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT ICING
IS LOW...SPOTTY TRACE AMOUNTS UP TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
OF ICE GLAZE IS LIKELY. THIS WILL BE OCCURRING INTO THE PEAK
MORNING COMMUTE AND IT ONLY TAKES A VERY SMALL AMOUNT OF ICE GLAZE
TO CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES REMAIN HIGHLY VARIABLE
RANGING FROM 41F AT K2G9 TO 9F AT THV. MANY SITES THAT DECOUPLED
OVER THE MID/LWR SUSQ WITH FRESH SNOWPACK EXPERIENCED RAPID TEMP
DROPS INTO THE LOW-MID TEENS OR EVEN UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. THIS
TREND SHOULD REVERSE BY 10Z. EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING
BY LATE MORNING AND END THE LIGHT FZRA THREAT. THE RELATIVELY MILD
SWLY WIND SHOULD BOOST TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S THIS
AFTERNOON.
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE HIGHER CLOUDS PEELING OFF BY THE AFTERNOON.
THIS IS EVIDENT VIA THE 11-3.9U IR SATL LOOP WHICH ONLY SHOWS
LOWER CLOUDS TO THE WEST OF THE PA/WV/OH BORDER. THEREFORE ADDED
DZ TO LIGHT RAIN CHANCE FOR LATER TODAY. PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT
THIS EVENING WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WEST WINDS AND GRADUAL
DROP IN TEMPERATURES...WITH A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FAVORED WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS BEFORE SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF THE LOWER LAKES. A MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION
/LESS THAN 1 INCH/ IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK 12Z WEDNESDAY OVER THE
NW MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION LKLY FROM THE NW
ALLEGHENIES INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES
WED NGT AND BRINGS AN END TO THE LES ACTIVITY. D2 MAXES WILL DROP
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY WITH LOWS BTWN 10-20F -- COLDEST
READINGS IN THE SOUTH.
MODELS TRACK CLIPPER LOW NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TOWARD NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z FRIDAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLY COLDER W/NW FLOW
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT AND
OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN MTNS THUR NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTERN SYSTEM WILL NOT
PHASE WITH THE TROUGH AND THUS REMAIN FAR ENOUGH EAST TO PRECLUDE
ANY PRECIP REACHING BACK INTO THE LOWER SUSQ. BUT THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH WILL SPREAD GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS INTO NW HALF OF
CWA THROUGH LATE WEEK AS BRISK SW FLOW TURNS TO THE NW...OPENING
UP THE LAKES TO LIKELY IMPACT FAR NW SNOWBELT WITH A PERIOD OF
MORE INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BANDS LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
FAST ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGS A WEAK RIDGE THROUGH FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT...BUT THEN SERIES OF WEAKER WAVES SLIDE THROUGH THE
REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPS WARM UP A BIT...BRINGING IMPACTS
FROM GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW CEDING TO RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD LOWERING CIGS/SCT SHOWERS
INTO THE AREA EARLY TUES MORNING ALONG WITH THE CHC FOR JUST A BIT
OF FZRA AT ALL AIRFIELDS THORUGH MID MORNING. IN ADDITION...A
CORE OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT...CREATING LLWS
CONDS THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS THE EAST. OTHER AREA OF CONCERN
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE STATE...WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN MCLEAR AND WIND LIGHT.
LATEST SREF PROBS AND DOWNSCALED NAM SUGGEST VIS REDUCTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY TUE AM AT KMDT/KLNS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTN...ENDING THE THREAT OF LINGERING
SHOWERS/LLWS OVER MOST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS W/REGARD TO HOW FAST FRONT AND ANY ASSOC
FOG/SHOWERS CLEAR THE KMDT/KLNS AREA.
POST-FRONTAL LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE W MTNS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE IFR CIGS AND PATCHY DZ AT KBFD/KJST 12Z-18Z...WITH SOME
MODEST IMPROVEMENT LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES
FROM THE WEST.
OUTLOOK...
WED...AM LOW CIGS/-SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST PA.
FRI-SAT...OCNL SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE W MTNS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005-
006-010>012-017>019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
524 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN WITH POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. AFTER A RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND SEASONABLY COLDER AND AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.
THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1020Z...RADAR TRENDS SHOW VERY LIGHT RETURNS CONTINUING TO PUSH
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-LWR SUSQ VALLEY. TEMPERATURES DROPPED
PRECIPITOUSLY EARLIER UNDER CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND FRESH DEEP
SNOWPACK. WITH RISK OF VERY LIGHT/SPOTTY ICE GLAZE /MAINLY TRACE
AMOUNTS/ LOOMING ON THE HORIZON JUST TO THE WEST...HAVE EXPANDED
FZRA ADVY INTO ALL SE ZONES. HAVE ALSO CANCELLED THE ADVY FOR THE
LAURELS AS 10Z MESO OBS SHOW TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING NOW.
PREVIOUS...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN PA INTO MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SITES ALONG AND WEST OF RT219 HAVE BEEN STEADILY WARMING OVERNIGHT
RUNNING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. A RELATIVELY
MILD SW WIND HAS PROPELLED READINGS INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS AT 08Z. MAIN CONCERN REMAINS THE RISK FOR LIGHT
ICE GLAZE JUST EAST OF ALLEGHENY FRONT ACROSS THE INTERIOR CENTRAL
RIDGES AND PERHAPS INTO PORTIONS OF THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. THE
LATEST HRRR HOLDS ONTO LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA
THRU 12Z.
PA DOT REPORTED EARLIER THAT ROAD TEMPS ARE AROUND 30F. QUESTION
IS IF WAA PRECIP CAN SURVIVE DOWNSLOPING EAST THE ALLEGHENIES
INTO DRIER AIR. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT ICING
IS LOW...SPOTTY TRACE AMOUNTS UP TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
OF ICE GLAZE IS LIKELY. THIS WILL BE OCCURRING INTO THE PEAK
MORNING COMMUTE AND IT ONLY TAKES A VERY SMALL AMOUNT OF ICE GLAZE
TO CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES REMAIN HIGHLY VARIABLE
RANGING FROM 41F AT K2G9 TO 9F AT THV. MANY SITES THAT DECOUPLED
OVER THE MID/LWR SUSQ WITH FRESH SNOWPACK EXPERIENCED RAPID TEMP
DROPS INTO THE LOW-MID TEENS OR EVEN UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. THIS
TREND SHOULD REVERSE BY 10Z. EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING
BY LATE MORNING AND END THE LIGHT FZRA THREAT. THE RELATIVELY MILD
SWLY WIND SHOULD BOOST TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S THIS
AFTERNOON.
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE HIGHER CLOUDS PEELING OFF BY THE AFTERNOON.
THIS IS EVIDENT VIA THE 11-3.9U IR SATL LOOP WHICH ONLY SHOWS
LOWER CLOUDS TO THE WEST OF THE PA/WV/OH BORDER. THEREFORE ADDED
DZ TO LIGHT RAIN CHANCE FOR LATER TODAY. PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT
THIS EVENING WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WEST WINDS AND GRADUAL
DROP IN TEMPERATURES...WITH A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FAVORED WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS BEFORE SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF THE LOWER LAKES. A MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION
/LESS THAN 1 INCH/ IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK 12Z WEDNESDAY OVER THE
NW MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION LKLY FROM THE NW
ALLEGHENIES INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES
WED NGT AND BRINGS AN END TO THE LES ACTIVITY. D2 MAXES WILL DROP
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY WITH LOWS BTWN 10-20F -- COLDEST
READINGS IN THE SOUTH.
MODELS TRACK CLIPPER LOW NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TOWARD NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z FRIDAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLY COLDER W/NW FLOW
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT AND
OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN MTNS THUR NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTERN SYSTEM WILL NOT
PHASE WITH THE TROUGH AND THUS REMAIN FAR ENOUGH EAST TO PRECLUDE
ANY PRECIP REACHING BACK INTO THE LOWER SUSQ. BUT THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH WILL SPREAD GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS INTO NW HALF OF
CWA THROUGH LATE WEEK AS BRISK SW FLOW TURNS TO THE NW...OPENING
UP THE LAKES TO LIKELY IMPACT FAR NW SNOWBELT WITH A PERIOD OF
MORE INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BANDS LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
FAST ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGS A WEAK RIDGE THROUGH FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT...BUT THEN SERIES OF WEAKER WAVES SLIDE THROUGH THE
REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPS WARM UP A BIT...BRINGING IMPACTS
FROM GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW CEDING TO RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDS AND LIGHT SOUTH WIND ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE
AIRSPACE.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD LOWERING CIGS/SCT SHOWERS INTO
THE AREA EARLY TUES MORNING ALONG WITH THE CHC FOR JUST A BIT OF
FZRA OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. IN ADDITION...A
CORE OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT...CREATING LLWS
CONDS AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST PA AND LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. OTHER AREA OF CONCERN
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE STATE...WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN MCLEAR AND WIND LIGHT.
LATEST SREF PROBS AND DOWNSCALED NAM SUGGEST VIS REDUCTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY TUE AM AT KMDT/KLNS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PA ON
TUESDAY...ENDING THE THREAT OF LINGERING SHOWERS/LLWS OVER MOST OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS W/REGARD TO
HOW FAST FRONT AND ANY ASSOC FOG/SHOWERS CLEAR THE KMDT/KLNS AREA.
POST-FRONTAL LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE W MTNS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE IFR CIGS AND PATCHY DZ AT KBFD/KJST 12Z-18Z...WITH SOME
MODEST IMPROVEMENT LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES
FROM THE WEST.
OUTLOOK...
WED...AM LOW CIGS/-SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST PA.
FRI-SAT...OCNL SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE W MTNS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005-
006-010>012-017>019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
818 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
.UPDATE...
SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS A LITTLE AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. HAVE
BROUGHT HIGHER POPS...THOUGH ONLY LOW END CHANCE TO THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE
REESTABLISHED TRENDS TO THE TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS AND WINDS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. FINALLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER NORTHWESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY
THIS EVENING BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED THOUGH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016/
AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREA SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE LATE THIS EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS
OF THE COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
NEAR TEXAS COAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON TODAY AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST TO 50 MILES INLAND TOWARDS LAVACA AND DEWITT COUNTIES ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE AREA. A
SHARP 20F DEWPOINT GRADIENT IS NOTED BETWEEN GONZALES AND
VICTORIA AS OF 3AM. THIS FRONT SHOULD STALL THROUGH THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEPER NORTHWESTERN
MOMENTUM. PER WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS, A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER NEW MEXICO INTO NORTH MEXICO.
THIS FEATURE WILL AID IN MID-LEVEL INCREASED DIVERGENCE THROUGH
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE AREA BEING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, ENOUGH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN A VERY WEAK ELEVATED UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISO/SCT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. UPDRAFTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ROBUST AND THUNDER IS
NOT EXPECTED GIVEN THE VERY POOR LAPSE RATES IN THE H7-H5 LAYER
ABOVE THE STRONG INVERSION. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN
PLACED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAINS WHERE THE UPGLIDE
AND MOISTURE WILL BE MORE ENHANCED. ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HIGH WITH MAX TOTALS IN SCATTERED LOCATIONS BETWEEN
ONE TENTH AND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE
LESS. STRONGER NORTHERLY MOMENTUM WILL ENSUE TONIGHT WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE TROUGH AND ISENTROPIC DOWNSLOPING WILL COMMENCE -
THUS ENDING THE RAIN CHANCES BY LATE EVENING.
DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH AND WEST WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS
PWATS DROP TO 0.3" OR BELOW ON WEDNESDAY. MORE SUN IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOUT 5 F DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH ONE COLD
MORNING EXPECTED THURSDAY THAT WILL BE THEN FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WARM UP TO NORMAL AND THEN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REACH NEAR 80 DEGREES BY
SUNDAY WITH AMPLE SUN LIKELY. THE NEXT RAIN CHANCE MAY NOT COME
UNTIL NEXT TUESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THE NEXT WEEK
WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
AND LOWER 30S EVERYWHERE ELSE. SEVERAL MOS GUIDANCE VALUES
SUGGESTED LOWER VALUES VS. ORIGINAL BLEND GUIDANCE AND FOLLOWED
SUIT BY TRIMMING 2F DEGREES OFF. DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER
20S AND WITH NEAR CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS - THIS WOULD LIKELY
SET THE STAGE FOR A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOL OFF THAT WOULD OVER
ACHIEVE VS. WHAT RAW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. WITH SUCH DRY AIR
IN PLACE, LARGE DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE THE NORM BY LATE WEEK AS
HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 60S THURSDAY AFTN THEN 70S FRI/SAT. BY
SUNDAY...H925 TEMPS WILL REACH 18-20C THAT WILL SUPPORT SURFACE
VALUES CLOSE TO 80F DEGREES. DESPITE A POSSIBLE TROUGH PASSAGE
SATURDAY, MOISTURE APPEARS TOO LOW FOR ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND WITH GENERAL ZONAL FLOW NOTED
OTHERWISE. IT IS NOT TILL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN A LARGER TROUGH
TAKES FORM OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THEN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF AGREE THAT A FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD OCCUR
LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME-FRAME WITH LOW-END RAIN OR POSSIBLY EVEN
THUNDER CHANCES. HAVE ONLY PLACE 20% AT THIS PARTICULAR POINT WITH
A GENERALLY QUIET WEEK AHEAD. LONGER RANGE MODEL SUITE DOES
INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING SUBSTANTIALLY BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK HOWEVER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 55 37 57 34 66 / 20 10 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 55 36 56 29 65 / 20 10 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 55 37 58 31 66 / 20 10 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 53 33 55 31 65 / 10 10 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 57 38 60 32 68 / 30 20 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 53 35 54 30 65 / 10 10 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 56 36 59 29 67 / 20 10 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 54 37 56 31 65 / 20 10 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 55 39 56 31 64 / 40 20 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 55 38 57 33 66 / 20 10 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 56 38 58 32 67 / 30 20 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
544 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREA SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE LATE THIS EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS
OF THE COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
NEAR TEXAS COAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON TODAY AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST TO 50 MILES INLAND TOWARDS LAVACA AND DEWITT COUNTIES ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE AREA. A
SHARP 20F DEWPOINT GRADIENT IS NOTED BETWEEN GONZALES AND
VICTORIA AS OF 3AM. THIS FRONT SHOULD STALL THROUGH THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEPER NORTHWESTERN
MOMENTUM. PER WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS, A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER NEW MEXICO INTO NORTH MEXICO.
THIS FEATURE WILL AID IN MID-LEVEL INCREASED DIVERGENCE THROUGH
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE AREA BEING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, ENOUGH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN A VERY WEAK ELEVATED UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISO/SCT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. UPDRAFTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ROBUST AND THUNDER IS
NOT EXPECTED GIVEN THE VERY POOR LAPSE RATES IN THE H7-H5 LAYER
ABOVE THE STRONG INVERSION. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN
PLACED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAINS WHERE THE UPGLIDE
AND MOISTURE WILL BE MORE ENHANCED. ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HIGH WITH MAX TOTALS IN SCATTERED LOCATIONS BETWEEN
ONE TENTH AND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE
LESS. STRONGER NORTHERLY MOMENTUM WILL ENSUE TONIGHT WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE TROUGH AND ISENTROPIC DOWNSLOPING WILL COMMENCE -
THUS ENDING THE RAIN CHANCES BY LATE EVENING.
DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH AND WEST WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS
PWATS DROP TO 0.3" OR BELOW ON WEDNESDAY. MORE SUN IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOUT 5 F DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH ONE COLD
MORNING EXPECTED THURSDAY THAT WILL BE THEN FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WARM UP TO NORMAL AND THEN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REACH NEAR 80 DEGREES BY
SUNDAY WITH AMPLE SUN LIKELY. THE NEXT RAIN CHANCE MAY NOT COME
UNTIL NEXT TUESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THE NEXT WEEK
WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
AND LOWER 30S EVERYWHERE ELSE. SEVERAL MOS GUIDANCE VALUES
SUGGESTED LOWER VALUES VS. ORIGINAL BLEND GUIDANCE AND FOLLOWED
SUIT BY TRIMMING 2F DEGREES OFF. DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER
20S AND WITH NEAR CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS - THIS WOULD LIKELY
SET THE STAGE FOR A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOL OFF THAT WOULD OVER
ACHIEVE VS. WHAT RAW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. WITH SUCH DRY AIR
IN PLACE, LARGE DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE THE NORM BY LATE WEEK AS
HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 60S THURSDAY AFTN THEN 70S FRI/SAT. BY
SUNDAY...H925 TEMPS WILL REACH 18-20C THAT WILL SUPPORT SURFACE
VALUES CLOSE TO 80F DEGREES. DESPITE A POSSIBLE TROUGH PASSAGE
SATURDAY, MOISTURE APPEARS TOO LOW FOR ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND WITH GENERAL ZONAL FLOW NOTED
OTHERWISE. IT IS NOT TILL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN A LARGER TROUGH
TAKES FORM OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THEN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF AGREE THAT A FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD OCCUR
LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME-FRAME WITH LOW-END RAIN OR POSSIBLY EVEN
THUNDER CHANCES. HAVE ONLY PLACE 20% AT THIS PARTICULAR POINT WITH
A GENERALLY QUIET WEEK AHEAD. LONGER RANGE MODEL SUITE DOES
INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING SUBSTANTIALLY BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK HOWEVER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 55 37 57 34 66 / 20 10 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 55 36 56 29 65 / 20 10 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 55 37 58 31 66 / 20 10 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 53 33 55 31 65 / 10 10 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 57 38 60 32 68 / 20 10 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 53 35 54 30 65 / 10 10 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 56 36 59 29 67 / 20 10 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 54 37 56 31 65 / 20 10 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 55 39 56 31 64 / 40 20 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 55 38 57 33 66 / 20 10 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 56 38 58 32 67 / 30 20 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
949 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT AND WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER....AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EST TUESDAY...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS POINT ARE ALL ABOVE
FREEZING SO THE CONCERN ABOUT ANY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS HAS PASSED. HRRR IS STILL CONSISTENT WITH
BRINGING PRECIP IN TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AFTER 17Z...JUST
LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE THEN.
CONTINUING TO STAY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON.
AS OF 350 AM EST TUESDAY...
VORTICITY MAX OVER MICHIGAN WAS MOVING NORTHEAST WITH THE SURFACE
LOW OVER MICHIGAN AND THE COLD FRONT TRAILING INTO NORTHERN
LOUISIANA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY BUT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
FROM JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...THE FRONT WILL BECOME PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER FLOW
AND MAKE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS SOUTHEAST.
00Z NAM ALONG WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL WRF HAD REASONABLE
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY. THE FIRST AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS MORNING. MET AND MAV GUIDANCE...AS WELL
AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED LOWER LAYERS SATURATING AND
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS RISING EARLY THIS MORNING. BY THE
TIME THE PRECIPITATION IS ABLE TO SURVIVE ALL THE WAY TO THE
SURFACE...ONLY PARTS OF GREENBRIER COUNTY HAVE ANY THREAT OF
FREEZING RAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
RISING ABOVE FREEZING BY 10AM.
THE THIN BAND OF RAIN FROM OHIO INTO LOUISIANA WILL MOVE EAST WITH
THE FRONT...REACHING THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH PROGRESS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UNTIL AFTER 21Z/4PM.
EVENTUALLY SURFACE AND 850 MB FRONT PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT...ENOUGH COLD AIR ARRIVES TO CHANGE THE
PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...ON THE NORTHWEST
EDGE OF WHERE THE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
RETREATING SOUTHEAST. SO FOR NOW LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIMITED TO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.
STAYED CLOSE TO MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY AND MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EST TUESDAY...
BY 12Z(7 AM EST) WEDNESDAY...ALL THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS FORECAST
THE COLD FRONT TO BE WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY (ANAFRONT)...AND THE FORECAST AREA
STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A DEPARTING
UPPER LEVEL JET...PRECIP WILL LINGER WELL BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY UNTIL
LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR ARRIVES. THE NAM AND 21Z SREF ARE SEVERAL
HOURS SLOWER IN PUSHING PRECIP OUT OF THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...KEPT POPS IN THE EAST UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.
IF THE SLOWER SREF/NAM VERIFY...THIS WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCES OF
THE LIGHT RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE THE
PRECIP ENDS. OVER TIME...THE SREF PLUMES SHOW FEW MEMBERS
SUPPORTING SNOW. STILL KEPT A COUPLE OF HOURS OF A SMALL CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP WEDNESDAY...BUT NO
ACCUMULATION OF WINTRY PRECIP IS EXPECTED.
WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...CONTINUED TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR THE COLDER
NAM MOS GUIDANCE VALUES.
NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR SO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE...CONTINUE
TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WHICH MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND KEEPING THIS FEATURE WELL
EAST OF OUR AREA. AS CONFIDENCE GROWS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT
IMPACT OUR AREA...WE CONTINUE TO PUSH POPS DOWN IN THE EAST ON
THURSDAY.
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER NOW ANTICIPATED ON THURSDAY...AND A DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW...INCREASED HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY OUR ATTENTION SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTHERN
STREAM...WHERE A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY...BUT BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...AND FORECAST TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY
BE ABLE TO TAP SOME GREAT LAKE MOISTURE PRODUCING UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES. INTRODUCED SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS PERIOD FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...
LONGER RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA
WILL TRANSITION FROM A DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
INTO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFIES WELL OFFSHORE....TO MORE OF A FLAT ZONAL
FLOW BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SOME 1-3" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE
PREFERRED UPSLOPE AREAS...MOST NOTABLY WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY
WV.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPERATURE BACK TO WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AND SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN WHAT THEY OTHERWISE WOULD BE DUE TO COOLING INFLUENCE OF
MELTING DEEP SNOWPACK...AND ADJUSTED THERMAL PROFILES DOWNWARD A TAD
FROM GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH MAY NOT BE ACCOUNTING FOR
THE FULL INFLUENCE OF COOLING UNTIL THE DEEPER SNOWPACK IS FINALLY
ERODED AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO/THROUGH THE 40S SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY.
WEAK MEAN RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO DEFLECT NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH INCREASING WARM MOIST ADVECTION ON
WEST-WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE
APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM TUESDAY...
CEILINGS WERE LOWERING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION AND
WERE ALREADY MVFR AT KLWB AND KBLF. USED THE TIMING OF THE LAST
FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR...THE 00Z LOCAL WRF AND THE 00Z NAM FOR THE
ARRIVAL OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH 13Z/9AM AT KLWB WILL BE BELOW FREEZING SO VERY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH RADARS IN THE AREA WERE NOT
SHOWING MUCH PRECIPITATION AS OF 12Z.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DUE TO A
STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET...LLWS WAS STILL INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS. SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST
AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST. EXPECTING THE FRONT TO BE
SOUTHEAST OF KDAN BY 09Z/4AM TONIGHT.
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED WITH RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS COLDER AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE PRECIPITATION SLOWS DOWN...THEN
COULD SEE A PERIOD OF SNOW OR MIX MOUNTAINS BY LATE TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE OCCURRENCE OF SNOW AT KLWB AND KBLF.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
LATEST MODELS INDICATE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE
MOISTURE WITH MOST NOW INDICATING VFR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IN STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW AND
INCREASINGLY COLD AIR MAY PROVIDE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND -SHSN
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED
FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST WHERE WILL REMAIN UNDER DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS EARLY SATURDAY.
NOTE...AWOS OBSERVATION EQUIPMENT AT KBCB...VIRGINIA TECH
AIRPORT...IS OUT OF SERVICE. AMD NOT SKED HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE
TAF.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 650 AM EST TUESDAY...
OBSERVATION EQUIPMENT AT KBCB...VIRGINIA TECH AIRPORT...IS OUT OF
SERVICE. SOME ELEMENTS OF THE SURFACE OBSERVATION...INCLUDING SKY
COVER...PRECIPITATION AND WIND...WILL NOT BE REPORTED UNTIL THIS
IS REPAIRED.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/CF
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...AMS/JH
EQUIPMENT...AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1004 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
.UPDATE...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED LATER THIS
MORNING...AFTERNOON...AND EARLY EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST FROM MN INTO S WI. COULD BE A NICE BURST OF
SNOW AS COLUMN SATURATES IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...ACCORDING
TO THE RAP BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS. POTENTIALLY SOME REDUCTIONS
IN VISIBILITIES WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS...ALONG WITH SOME SLICK
SPOTS ON THE ROADWAYS. BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
TODAY...WITH GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20KT RANGE
POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW LEVEL STRATUS
DECK IN PLACE. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 1-3 KFT RANGE. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH COULD REDUCE VSBYS INTO MVFR
CATEGORIES AS WELL. HOWEVER...THIS ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OUT BY THE EVENING HOURS.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTIONS
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...BUT WIND GUSTS COULD REACH INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20KT RANGE WITH SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE STRATUS CLOUDS
MAY THEN DECREASE EARLY WED MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE LGT SNOW IS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SFC LOW
AND ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE MOVE ACROSS MI. BRISK WLY WINDS AND
GRADUAL COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH TEMPS HOLDING FAIRLY
STEADY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS IS EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER MN MOVES ACROSS WI. Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS NOTED WITH THIS
FEATURE AND SOUNDINGS ARE NEARLY SATURATED AROUND 700 MB AND BELOW
INCLUDING A PORTION OF THE DENDRITE ZONE. THUS EXPECT A HIGH POP AND
LOW QPF SCENARIO SO WENT WILL LIKELY POPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FOR
A PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT SNOW LINGERING INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE AND DRYING MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SCATTER OUT THE STRATUS LATE TNT AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL WI. WENT WITH A CONSENSUS WITH LOW TEMPS TNT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVER LATE AND LESSER WINDS. LOWS IN THE TEENS
ARE FORECAST.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS A
700MB TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 26.00Z NAM/GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION BETWEEN 700-500MB...BUT A DRY LAYER
BELOW IT WHICH SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FURTHER NORTH
NEAR THE SURFACE LOW WHERE THE LIFT IS A BIT STRONGER IN THE LOW
LEVELS. IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...LEFT A SMALL CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW IN THERE AS THE LOW LEVELS TRY TO SATURATE AS A
TRAILING INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FOLLOWS THE LOW.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIVE DOWN FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WHILE THIS LOW LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
GETS A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PROVIDES
DEEP ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION...PARTICULARLY IN
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE WARM LAYER SHOULD BE INCREASING INTO THE
+2C TO +4C RANGE...SO THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW THAT CHANGES
OVER TO RAIN AS THE COLUMN SATURATES AND THE LAYER WARMS.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW
WITH THE BUSY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING...THERE APPEARS TO
BE A NUMBER OF ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THAT
APPROACH THE REGION GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH TIME AND
INCREASING CONFIDENCE...WILL BE ABLE TO GET SOME BETTER
TIMING/DETAILS ON THESE SYSTEMS INSTEAD OF THE BLANKET CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR EACH DAY.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...LIGHT SNOW WILL MOSTLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING
WITH VSBYS RETURNING TO P6SM BUT WITH CIGS CONTINUING FROM 1-3 KFT.
SNOW WILL THEN REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY LINGERING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS AN UPPER TROUGH PASSES. THE CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 1-3 KFT WHILE VSBYS WILL RANGE FROM 2-5SM
WITH THE SNOW. THE STRATUS CLOUDS MAY THEN DECREASE EARLY WED
MORNING.
MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING FOR
BRISK AND GUSTY WLY WINDS DUE TO INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
MOVING AWAY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI AND INTO CANADA. ANOTHER SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FROM WED AFT INTO THU MORNING
AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND WIND GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE ARE
FORECAST.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTS
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
357 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. BEHIND THIS
COLD FRONT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS WITH MAINLY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REST
OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGS SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 355 PM EST...MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH MILD TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JANUARY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE TOPPING OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS WITH LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REST OF THE REGION INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AS MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR INDICATE SOME PATCHY SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE ONLY GONE WITH CHANCE
AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION DUE TO A LACK OF
EXPECTED AREAL COVERAGE...BUT HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE/LAKE
EFFECT PROCESSES WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE.
AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP THIS EVENING RAIN SHOWERS WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE
PRECIPITATION OCCURS...WITH A FEW TENTHS OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH ANY LINGERING SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
DISSIPATING BY LATE EVENING. LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND WESTERN HAMILTON
COUNTIES...WHERE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREATER
CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW
30S. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WINDS
SHIFT FROM SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY TO MORE OF A WESTERLY
DIRECTION...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE CONTINUED LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS INITIALLY THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...DRIFTING SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN MID MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS. SOME FLURRIES MAY EXTEND FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD INTO THE
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL
REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TACONICS...GREENS
AND BERKSHIRES DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN VALLEY AREAS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW TENTHS/PERHAPS UP TO AN INCH AT THE VERY WORST ACROSS UPSLOPE-
FAVORED REGIONS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DESPITE ANOTHER RELATIVELY MILD DAY...IT WILL FEEL ON THE CHILLIER
SIDE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20-35 MPH...ESPECIALLY CHANNELED DOWN THE
MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MID 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS VALLEY
AREAS.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT TOTAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...4
INCHES...ALTHOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN
HERKIMER COUNTY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...TRENDING PRETTY QUIET
WEATHER-WISE DURING THIS PERIOD AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WIND
DOWN WEDNESDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RIDGES ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM MAY IMPACT WESTERN REGIONS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS
SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND WILL BE WEAKENING THE CLOSER
IT GETS TO THE REGION.
LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
LEVELS...GENERALLY IN THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR A FEW
LOW 20S IN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER
30S WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE AS A MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WILL RESULT
IN A NUMBER OF FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS IMPACTING OUR REGION
ON AVERAGE EVERY 24-36 HOURS. HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA AS THERE WILL BE
SOME LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL AS MOST OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH ALLOWING A SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO MOVE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF EACH
SYSTEM.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY...UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S ON SATURDAY...UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ON SUNDAY AND MID 30S TO
MID 40S ON MONDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ON SATURDAY NIGHT...AND IN
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z WEDNESDAY. A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION THIS
EVENING WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT TUESDAY
MORNING. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AND
REMAIN MAINLY BKN-OVC040-050 FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ANY PCPN IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AT 7-14 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 19
KTS AT KALB THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IN
THE WAKE OF THE FIRST FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING AT 5-10 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 16 KTS AT KALB AND KPSF. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO
THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY
MORNING AT 10-14 KTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 28 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHSN.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OR HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE
EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT RANGING FROM A TENTH TO LESS THAN
HALF AN INCH. ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER
OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT ACROSS THE HSA.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...IRL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1155 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
...WET PERIOD EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...
.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
16Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AND AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
RIDES WELL TO THE NORTH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA...PRODUCING A SHARP
AND IMPRESSIVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
THE FLOW THEN DIGS BACK TO THE SOUTH CARVING OUT A LONGWAVE TROUGH
FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES/CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND FINALLY BACK INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. UPPER FLOW
TURNS BACK TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST WITH A DEEP LAYER MID/UPPER
PATTERN STREAMING MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF/DEEP SOUTH. WHILE THE
GREATEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY STILL OFF TO OUR
NORTHWEST...THIS WILL BE CHANGING QUICKLY LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT..WITH A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW THEN WITH US THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THE ENERGY AT THE TAIL END OF THE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL EVENTUALLY PLAY A PART IN CLEARING OUR WEATHER OUT FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...BEFORE THAT TIME WE HAVE A RATHER
CLOUDY...WET...AND POTENTIALLY STORMY WEATHER PATTERN TO GET
THROUGH.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RIDGE
WILL BE SLOWLY GIVING UP ITS GRIP ON THE REGION THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY. IN ITS WAKE...A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT ALONG
WITH HIGHLY DIFFLUENT FLOW WILL ALLOW A WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION/INVERTED TROUGH TO DEVELOP/EXPAND FROM THE SOUTHERN
GULF INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
REST OF TODAY...FAIR...DRY... AND SEASONABLE WEATHER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. VARYING AREAS OF
CLOUDS AND FILTERED SUNSHINE IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 70 ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES
TO THE MIDDLE 70S CENTRAL...AND MID/UPPER 70S SOUTH. MAY END UP
SEEING ACTUALLY HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER IF THE HIGHER
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN...BUT GENERAL BALLPARK OF 70S IS A GOOD
FORECAST FOR MOST SPOTS.
THE FORECAST AND OVERALL WEATHER CONDITIONS REALLY SHOULD NOT
BEGIN TO GO DOWNHILL UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS
850-700MB THETAE RIDGE/WAA REGIME RAPIDLY EXPANDS NORTHWARD OUT
OF THE CARIBBEAN...ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND OVER THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST. DEEP LAYER AND RAPID ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE
295-315K SURFACES IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
LOOKING AT THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING...WE FIND A RATHER DEEP LAYER OF
VERY DRY AIR BETWEEN ABOUT 850MB-400MB. TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS FROM
12Z GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS DRY LAYER WILL REMAIN PRESENT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL ERODE THIS DRY
LAYER IN A HURRY...WORKING FROM SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO
NORTH/NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. GENERALLY SPEAKING NUMERICAL
WEATHER PREDICTION HAS A SLOW BIAS IN THE MOISTENING AND
DEVELOPMENT OF QPF ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WAA REGIMES
(USUALLY BY SEVERAL HOURS). HAVE MADE SOME SIZABLE CHANGES TO THE
RAINFALL CHANCES OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT NOT ONLY FOR THIS BIAS BUT
ALSO THE AGREEMENT IN A WET SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. CURRENTLY
HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE EVENING
HOURS...AND RAMPING UP TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL POPS AFTER 06Z.
HOWEVER...IF THE USUAL BIAS WORKS OUT...THEN THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER COVERAGE BREAKING OUT OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES...PERHAPS EVEN A COUPLE HOURS EARLIER.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT LOOKS WET WITH PERIOD
SHOWERS/STORMS ALMOST REGION-WIDE. THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE
AIDED BY DIFFLUENT HIGH LEVEL FLOW ALOFT. THE
AGEOSTROPIC VERTICAL CIRCULATION/OMEGA FIELDS FORCED BY ALL THE
INGREDIENTS MIGRATING NORTHWARD ARE RATHER IMPRESSIVE OFF THE 12Z
GFS. GIVEN THE EVIDENCE AT HAND...MAY VERY WELL INCREASE POPS FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT FURTHER (PERHAPS 90-100%) IN
SOME ZONES WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...THE BEST UPGLIDE/WAA SHIFTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST...BUT WE ARE STILL LEFT WITH BROAD WEAKER UPGLIDE
ACROSS THE PENINSULA. THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS AS WELL.
THEREFORE...WITH ABUNDANT COLUMN MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SEE NO
REASON WHY PERIOD OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL NOT PERSIST.
THERE ARE ALMOST CERTAINLY GOING TO BE PERIODS OF DRIER WEATHER
MIXED IN. BUT...FOR THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS/WORK...OVERALL PLANS
SHOULD BE MADE FOR RAIN. ONE CONCERN WOULD BE DOWN TOWARD FORT
MYERS AREA. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS WANT TO LIFT THE LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY A BIT FURTHER NORTH DURING THE DAY. THIS WOULD PUT
THESE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES UNDERNEATH A A LESS FAVORABLE UPGLIDE
REGIME. IF THIS WAS TO OCCUR...THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WOULD ALSO
SHIFT NORTH OF THIS REGION...AND PERHAPS SHOWERS WOULD BE LESS
FREQUENT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR GUIDANCE
TRENDS...BUT FOR NOW...WITH SUCH A BROAD LIFT PATTERN...IT IS
DIFFICULT TO ACCURATELY PREDICT REALLY TIGHT POP/QPF GRADIENTS 24
HOURS IN ADVANCE.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL (THOUGH SMALL) FOR SCT STRONGER STORMS
(EVEN ISOLATED SEVERE) LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED THE GENERAL I-4 CORRIDOR AND
SOUTHWARD IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY...AND
THIS SEEM CURRENTLY APPROPRIATE. LARGE SCALE LIFT IS CERTAINLY
THERE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS SUFFICIENT (40-50KTS) FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. TAKING A QUICK
LOOK AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM RECENT HIGH RES LOCAL WRFARW RUNS
SHOW DECENT TURNING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO THE KINEMATICS ARE SETUP
DECENT...BUT AS IS OFTEN THE CASE...THE INSTABILITY...AND
ESPECIALLY SURFACE INSTABILITY ARE THE BIGGEST QUESTION. BASED ON
THE GUIDANCE ENSEMBLES...THE MARGINAL RISK LINES UP WELL WITH
THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY THAT IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...THERE DOES
APPEAR THAT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL
EXIST...MAINLY TAMPA BAY AREA SOUTHWARD. LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE
SOME ROTATING STORM OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS TO THE WEST
OF THE SUNCOAST...WITHIN A ZONE OF EVEN HIGHER INSTABILITY/WARM
SST. LOCAL WRFARW RUNS DO SHOW OCCASIONAL STRONG UPDRAFT HELICITY
VALUES WITH SIMULATED STORMS OVER THIS REGION...SUGGESTIVE OF
SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WITH THE MODEL ENVIRONMENT. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR CLOSELY IN CASE THIS ENVIRONMENT DOES EXIST LATE
TONIGHT...AS POTENTIAL ROTATING STORMS ORIGINATING OVER THIS
OFFSHORE AREA LATER TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING WOULD TEND TO
MIGRATE TOWARD THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITION OBSERVED/PREDICTED ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH THE REMAINING DAYLIGHT HOURS. LATE IN
THE EVENING...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
QUICKLY...ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS LATE AT NIGHT. 18Z TAF FORECASTS WILL SHOW
PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALONG
WITH PREVAILING SHOWERS/STORMS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN A
PARTICULAR TIME PERIOD IS STILL TOO LOW...INTERMITTENT IFR
CIGS/VIS ARE POSSIBLE/LIKELY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...WARM FRONT...DEVELOPS INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO THIS EVENING. LARGE SCALE WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY... HOWEVER...AS THE OVERNIGHT
PROGRESSES...AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST WATERS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG WITH HIGHER WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH WATERSPOUT
POTENTIAL AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF TARPON SPRINGS. MARINERS SHOULD KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE
LATEST FORECASTS IN CASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
THE MARINE ZONES INCREASES. UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE FORM OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN COMMON IN THE FORECAST INTO
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE EASTERN GULF LATE
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A SHIFT IN WINDS TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST. CAUTIONARY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BEHIND THIS FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 73 62 71 61 / 10 70 80 90
FMY 79 65 76 66 / 10 70 80 90
GIF 76 62 73 61 / 10 70 80 90
SRQ 74 62 72 62 / 10 70 80 90
BKV 75 59 73 59 / 0 70 80 80
SPG 72 62 71 61 / 10 70 80 90
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA
DECISION SUPPORT...CARLISLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1244 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016/
UPDATE...
HI-RES MODELS ARE DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE CURRENT PRECIP TRENDS.
THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE EDGING OUT THE LOCAL WRF...JUST A SMIDGE.
HAVE FOLLOWED THE HRRR TRENDS CLOSELY...EVEN INTO TOMORROW.
ALSO...UPPED POPS TO 100 PERCENT IN THE CORE OF THE LINE.
AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS...THE HI-RES MODELS ARE CLEARING
OUT ANY PRECIP BEFORE THE REALLY COLD TEMPS REACH THE NORTHERN
ZONES. PLUS...MODELS DID NOT DO A GREAT JOB WITH THE OVERNIGHT
MINS UP NORTH...AND THAT AREA HAS STARTED OUT WARMER THAN
PROJECTED.
HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO NEEDED A LITTLE
ADJUSTING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
NEAR TERM CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR ANY LIGHT FZRA OVER
FAR NE GA. CONTINUING TO MONITOR TEMPS AND APPEARS ALL AREAS
REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING. ACTUALLY AREAS CLOSEST TO FREEZING ARE
BANKS COUNTY...FAYETTE COUNTY AND PARTS OF MIDDLE GA MAINLY NEAR
MILLEDGEVILLE...ALSO JUST OUTSIDE OF CWA IN RABUN COUNTY. BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS...DOES APPEAR THAT PRECIP WILL NOT REACH THESE COOL
SPOTS IN TIME TO PRODUCE ANY LIGHT FZRA. HAVE INCLUDED SLT CHC FOR
MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/FZRA NEAR BANKS COUNTY THRU 13Z BUT NO MENTION
ANYWHERE ELSE.
OTHERWISE...STILL ON TRACK FOR RAIN EVENT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS A LITTLE
LOWER THAN PREV MODEL CYCLES. TOTAL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 1
INCH. FRONT SHOULD SLIDE INTO NW GA TODAY AND REACH ATL METRO BY
SUNSET. TEMPS QUITE A BIT COOLER BUT REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING.
DRYING BEHIND FRONT AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD DIMINISH
PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THRU THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. HAVE
TAPERED OFF POPS QUICKLY AND MATCHES 00Z HIRES MODEL GUIDANCE WELL.
SNELSON
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT MOVES IN DURING THE SHORT TERM EXITS THE
CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM EXITING
THE REGION. THEY BOTH SHOW THE CLOSED LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER
CENTRAL FL THU MORNING MOVING RAPIDLY UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO
JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z FRI. AS THIS LOW CENTER
MOVES NE IT PULLS THE LINGERING COLD FRONT OFF THE GA COAST
ALLOWING A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO BUILD NE OUT OF THE WESTERN
GULF. THIS RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE GA/FL BORDER BY SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING KEEPING THINGS DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING INCREASED CLOUDS TO NORTH GA
SUNDAY AND INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY. AS OF RIGHT NOW TEMPS
STAY WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP FREEZING OF FROZEN PRECIP OUT OF THE
FORECAST SO ONLY GOING WITH RAIN FOR DAY 7 FOR NOW.
01
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
PRECIP STILL ON TRACK FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT ATL. MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED AT THE ONSET. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE AFTER 06Z...WITH A PERIOD OF 300 FT CIGS POSSIBLE.
CIGS/VSBYS ARE ANTICIPATED TO IMPROVE BY MID MORNING TO
MVFR...WITH VFR POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD ALSO
GO NORTH ON THE BACKSIDE OF A COLD FRONT AROUND 06Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 58 45 54 35 / 20 90 80 10
ATLANTA 58 41 48 35 / 70 100 80 10
BLAIRSVILLE 51 35 46 28 / 100 100 20 10
CARTERSVILLE 58 36 47 29 / 100 100 50 10
COLUMBUS 61 47 53 37 / 20 100 100 20
GAINESVILLE 55 41 50 34 / 70 100 60 10
MACON 63 48 55 40 / 10 70 80 30
ROME 53 36 47 27 / 100 100 10 10
PEACHTREE CITY 59 41 50 33 / 50 100 80 10
VIDALIA 68 51 60 45 / 10 20 40 50
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
200 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 200 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
Low confidence forecast with respect to clouds early on. RAP 13km
seems to have best handle on 925mb rh, and decrease due to mixing
over SEMO into far west KY. High cloud influence will eventually
be limited to west KY. Otherwise short term updates to the cloud
forecast likely given the overall poor modeling of moisture at
925mb. Higher confidence of clouds maintaining is east into the
KEVV tri-state area. Otherwise high pressure the rule with dry
weather forecast. Energy and a boundary move through early Thursday
with mainly mid and upper clouds. Chilly Wednesday though return
sun. Thursday milder.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 200 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
Through Saturday and into Sunday, the main focus for the WFO PAH
forecast area will be the southerly flow and the increase in
temperatures from normal (some 15 to 20 degrees) for this time of
year. The general pattern shifts from a zonal flow to an
increasingly southwesterly flow aloft from Saturday onward.
The deterministic 00-12z Tuesday GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian guidance
still hint at warm advection, isentropically lifted, warm conveyor
belt shower activity breaking out late Sunday morning, increasing in
coverage through Monday.
Unlike the more consistent ECMWF the past few days, the GFS has
transitioned into a much more progressive northern stream flow
associated with a stronger and deeper low in the upper Midwest,
developing and shearing out a cold front across the area, as apposed
to maintaining a warm front across the northern sections of the WFO
PAH forecast area.
However, the ECMWF and the GFS Ensemble (albeit a little further
north than the ECMWF), maintain a warm frontal zone near the region,
maintaining the WFO PAH forecast area in a warm sector and greater
instability with time.
The nearly vertically stacked closed low in Western Missouri next
Tuesday continues to support some upright convection (thunderstorm
activity), so kept the mention of thunderstorms in place during the
day on Tuesday.
The main features for the latter half of Sunday through Monday night
will be scattered showers and then a shift to colder temperatures
again after February 3rd with the passage of a strong cold front.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1057 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
Clouds will be the main forecast challenge. A wedge of clearing
extends from around KPOF to just north of the Ohio River. High
clouds were over top of the lower deck. Trajectories suggest
clouds will hang tough east of the MS River, and especially KEVV
and KOWB, so will keep MVFR cigs between 2-3K/FT there through the
forecast. Confidence is lower at KPAH and KCGI. We see little
southward advancement of the clouds. So it may scatter out at KCGI
and possibly KPAH at times. Will keep a cig going both places for
now and AMD if need be. NW winds up to around 10 kts will become
light from the north overnight.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
602 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OVERNIGHT THEN CROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT
THEN CROSS THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE POPS TO PUSH HIGHER PERCENTAGES INTO
NEW BRUNSWICK EARLY THIS EVENING WHILE ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIP
WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ME FROM THE W. THE LATEST HRRR 3KM AND
NAM12 DOING QUITE WELL W/THIS SETUP. THE LAST BURST OF SNOW ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL AROOSTOOK COUNTY DELIVERED 0.5-1.0" OF SNOW IN SOME
SPOTS. PRECIP WILL BE A MIX MOST OF THE TIME EXCEPT WHEN A FEW
HEAVIER AREAS SET UP WHICH WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW DUE TO
SOME DYNAMIC COOLING ALOFT.
TEMPS HAVE WARMED A BIT SINCE 12Z INTO THE LOW AND MID 30S ACROSS
THE NORTH WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST HAD UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPS TO MATCH W/THE CURRENT OBS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER BAND OF SN SHWRS WITH THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FAR N
VERY LATE TNGT INTO ERLY WED MORN WITH LCLY UP TO AN INCH OF
ADDITIONAL SNFL...WI THE BAND LOSING ORGANIZATION INTO CNTRL AND
DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA LATER WED. WITH THIS TMG OF THE COLD
FRONT...OVRNGT LOWS WILL BE VERY MILD WITH TEMPS FALLING BEGINNING
MID TO LATE MORN ACROSS THE N AND MIDDAY TO AFTN CNTRL AND
DOWNEAST AREAS ON WED. EVEN WITH FALLING TEMPS...MORN HI TEMPS
WILL BE SIG ABV AVG. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLR ACROSS THE FA IN THE
MID TO LATE AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO GIVE WAY TO SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NORTH...10 TO 15 ABOVE
CENTRAL/INTERIOR DOWN EAST AND 15 TO 20 COASTAL DOWN EAST.
THURSDAY WILL FEATURE INCREASING CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER
TYPE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20 NORTH AND LOW TO
MID 30S NORTH.
THE CLIPPER LOW FROM THE WEST WILL WEAKEN THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS WELL EAST OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. EXPECT
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS NORTH AND LOW TO MID 20 CENTRAL
AND DOWN EAST.
FRIDAY`S FORECAST WILL DEPENDENT ON THE PLACEMENT AND DEVELOPMENT
OF A TROF THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE WEAKENING
SURFACE LOW TO THE WEST AND THE OCEAN LOW TO OUR EAST. HAVE GONE
WITH LOW LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS TO SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IN A NARROW
BAND BUT AGAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH REGARD TO
PLACEMENT. THE LATEST GFS FOCUSES ON THE MAINE MID-COAST WHILE
ECMWF/NAM ALONG THE MAINE/NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER FOR THE PLACEMENT
HEAVIER SNOW. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S
NORTH AND LOWER 30S CENTRAL DOWN EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL LIE SOMEWHERE ACROSS
COASTAL/EASTERN MAINE FRIDAY EVENING, ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE BAND OF
SNOW. THIS FEATURE WILL EXIT OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY
FROM NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS SETS UP SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY,
WITH THE GFS BRINGING A DEEPENING LOW UP WELL TO OUR WEST, WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PRODUCES A WEAKER LOW ACROSS
DOWNEAST MAINE FOR AROUND THE SAME TIME FRAME. THE GFS SOLUTION
WOULD BE A RAIN MAKER ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD LIMIT LIQUID PRECIP TO CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE. HAVE
STAYED CLOSE TO A BLEND OF MODELS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REMAIN MILD FOR LATE JANUARY/EARLY FEBRUARY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY MVFR CLGS NRN TAF SITES AND VFR DOWNEAST SITES
XPCTD TNGT INTO WED...WITH BRIEF IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH SN SHWRS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MSLY OVR NRN TAF SITES ERLY TO MID
WED MORN.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN SNOW. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH MORE POSSIBLE IFR IN LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH CURRENT MARGINAL GALE WRNG OVR OUTER MZ
WATERS AND STRONG SCA FOR INNER HARBOR/BAY WATERS THRU THE NGT. WE
WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO A PD SCA HDLNS FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR
AT LEAST WED MORN INTO THE ERLY AFTN HRS BEFORE ALL HDLNS CAN BE
DROPPED. KEPT CLOSE WITH WW3 WV GUIDANCE THRU THE NEAR TERM...WITH
CURRENT OBSVD WV HTS ALMOST EXACTLY MATCHING GUIDANCE ATTM.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED
TO 1 TO 3 NM IN SNOW/RAIN ON FRIDAY. &&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ052.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ052.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
406 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR TROF
EXTENDING FM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF UPR RDG
OVER THE ROCKIES. SHRTWV/SFC LO PRES RESPONSIBLE FOR WDSPRD SN THAT
IMPACTED THE CWA LAST NGT INTO THIS MRNG IS EXITING TO THE NE THRU
SE CANADA...BUT ANOTHER SHRTWV DIGGING SE THRU THE UPR
MIDWEST/ACCOMPANYING DPVA AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/DEEP MSTR SHOWN
ON THE 12Z GRB RAOB AS WELL AS LINGERING CYC NNW FLOW OF COLDER AIR
DROPPING H85 TEMPS TOWARD -14C IS MAINTAINING SOME SN MAINLY NEAR LK
SUP. 12Z INL RAOB SHOWS MID LVL DRYING LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SHRTWV...AND BACK EDGE OF COLDER CLD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS DRYING IS PUSHING SEWD THRU THE CWA THIS AFTN.
SN INTENSITIES DIMINISHED QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THIS
DRYING. LOOKING UPSTREAM... THERE IS A SHRTWV OVER WRN CANADA RIDING
OVER THE ROCKIES RDG.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU WED WL BE ON POPS INTO THIS EVNG AND THEN ON
WINDS/POTENTIAL FOR SOME SN ON WED AFTN IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF SHRTWV NOW TOPPING THE ROCKIES RDG.
TNGT...EXPECT SN SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR LK SUP THIS EVNG IN LINGERING
CYC FLOW TO DIMINISH TNGT WITH ARRIVAL OF DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR
DVGC/MORE ACYC LLVL FLOW/WARMING H85 TEMPS ACCOMPANYING SFC RDG AXIS
THAT IS FCST TO FOLLOW INTO THE WRN LKS FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING
SHRTWV. ALTHOUGH THE LES WL PERSIST THRU THE EVNG UNTIL THE PASSAGE
OF THE H85 THERMAL TROF ARND 06Z...SHIFTING WINDS THAT LIMIT BAND
RESIDENCE TIME THRU THE EVNG WL ALSO LIMIT ADDITIONAL SN ACCUMS.
EVEN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SFC RDG AXIS TOWARD 12Z TO THE N OF HI
PRES CENTER BLDG INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...CLRG OF THE LO CLDS
MAY BE LIMITED OR AT LEAST SLOWED AS QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD LINGERS
UPSTREAM IN THE NRN PLAINS UNDER THE RDG AXIS THERE. LINGERING LO
CLDS AND STEADY BACKING WINDS WELL N OF THE SFC HI CENTER SHOULD
LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL...ESPECIALLY IF THE LO CLDS ARE QUITE
PERSISTENT. TENDED TO BUMP UP FCST MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.
WED...SHRTWV NOW RIDING THE ROCKIES RDG IS FCST TO DIG SE INTO NE MN
BY LATE IN THE DAY...WITH ACCOMPANYING DEEP SFC LO MOVING NEAR
THUNDER BAY BY LATE IN THE DAY. AS THE PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE SFC LO
PRES AND DEPARTING SFC HI PRES RDG TIGHTENS...SW H925 WINDS ARE FCST
TO INCRS UP TO 35-40KTS. ALTHOUGH HI STABILITY RELATED TO THE WAA
THAT IS FCST TO BOOST H85 TEMPS UP TO -5C BY 18Z WL LIMIT THE MIXING
OF THIS HIER MOMENTUM TO THE SFC...STILL EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO AT
LEAST REACH 30-35 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK
SUP. ALL THE NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW AREA OF SN IN COMMA TAIL OF THE
SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE CWA W-E IN THE AFTN. SINCE THE COMMA
TAIL/AXIS OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WL BE MOVING STEADILY...MSTR
INFLOW INTO THIS DISTURBANCE WL BE LIMITED PER NAM FCST H85
DEWPTS/H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY...AND SN/WATER RATIOS ARE FCST TO BE
POOR WITH A RATHER HI/THEN DGZ CENTERED ARND 13K FT AGL...EXPECT SN
ACCUMS TO BE AN INCH OR TWO AT THE MOST. CARRIED THE HIER POPS/SN
TOTALS OVER THE NRN CWA CLOSER TO THE SHRTWV TRACK.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
GENERALLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH INTERMITTENT CHANCES
OF SNOW WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED 500MB SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEAST MN/ WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE U.P. TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE GENERALLY KEEPING THE BETTER
FORCING/HEAVIER PRECIPITATION JUST NORTH OF THE CWA MAINLY OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ONTARIO. THE SYSTEM SNOW WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK AND
GENERALLY LIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF PROGGED TO BE AROUND 0.15
INCHES. SNOWFALL RATIOS SHOULD NOT BE THAT IMPRESSIVE EITHER AS THE
MOIST LAYER IN THE DGZ IS ELEVATED BETWEEN ABOUT 700MB AND 6000MB
WITH FAIRLY GUSTY WINDS BELOW THAT LAYER...EFFECTIVELY HELPING TO
SHEAR THE LARGER DENDRITES APART. THIS WOULD LIKELY GIVE SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS SOMEWHERE AROUND 12 TO 15 ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...KEEPING THE SYSTEM SNOW TOTALS BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND THE CHANNELING EFFECT BETWEEN THE KEWEENAW...ISLE ROYALE AND THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN WILL INCREASE THE GALE POTENTIAL IN THOSE AREAS.
GUSTS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY REACH BETWEEN 35 AND
40KNOTS. EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KNOTS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW ALONG
THE SHORELINES AS WELL. THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT THURSDAY
AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD...THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST AND
850MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO THE -12 TO -15C RANGE. THE BIGGEST IMPACT
WOULD BE FOR NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS THURSDAY MORNING AND
THEN NORTH WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD GIVE
THOSE AREAS AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW. AS THE WINDS BECOME
NORTHERLY THERE COULD BE YET ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALES OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND 35 KNOTS.
THE LOW AND TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST THURSDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING A BIT DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN AND THE INVERSION HEIGHT TO
BECOME VERY SHALLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW THE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
BECOME MUCH LIGHTER ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE UPPER PENINSULA FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING DRIER
AIR...LIGHT WINDS AND A VERY BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE NAM/GFS/GEM ARE ALL
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PLACEMENT OF BOTH THE SURFACE FEATURES
AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THE MAIN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT IS THE LAST
FEW RUNS OF THE EC...WHICH HAS EVEN HAD RUN TO RUN ISSUES. LEANING
MORE TOWARD THE GFS...MOISTURE WOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE U.P. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASING ON WAA INTO THE REGION.
THIS WOULD ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY
EVENING...THE GFS/GEM HAVE A DRY SLOT SLIDING ACROSS THE U.P. WHICH
MAY CHANGE THE LIGHT SNOW OVER TO LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE...HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD BE VERY BRIEF AS THE CORE OF THE
SYSTEM SLIDES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND TO SOUTHWEST
QUEBEC BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP SNOW IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. SIMILAR TO THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
SYSTEM...SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 12 TO 15 RANGE
DUE TO THE ELEVATED DGZ ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
COLUMN. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS SHOW AROUND 0.15 TO 0.25 INCHES OF
LIQUID QPF PAINTED OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE U.P. WITH MOST OF THAT
OCCURRING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS ALONG WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WOULD GIVE MOST OF THE AREA
BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF SNOW. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WOULD NOT BE
FAVORABLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS 850MB ARE PROGGED TO BE A BIT
TOO WARM.
THE REMAINING EXTENDED...THE PATTERN ONCE AGAIN BECOMES VERY MESSY
FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF SNOW
WILL DOMINATE THIS TIME PERIOD. THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING AND
INTENSITY DIFFERENCES BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. CONFIDENCE IN
ANY SINGLE MODEL SOLUTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS
POINT...THEREFORE WILL STICK WITH A CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS TO AT
LEAST SHOW THE INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF SNOW FOR THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
EXPECT PREDOMINANT IFR CONDITIONS AT IWD/CMX TO IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS
AFTN WITH PASSAGE OF DISTURBANCE/DEEPER MSTR THAT ENHANCED THE SN
SHOWERS THIS MRNG. BEFORE THE PASSAGE OF THIS DISTURBANCE AT SAW...
VSBYS MAY DROP INTO THE IFR RANGE UNDER SOME LINGERING HEAVIER SHSN
AT TIMES THIS AFTN...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE THERE.
AS THE WINDS BACK TO THE W AND THEN THE SW LATE TNGT AND DRAW DRIER
AIR INTO THE UPR LKS...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE
OVERNGT...EARLIEST AT SAW AND LAST AT CMX...WHERE THE W WIND WL
UPSLOPE AND PROLONG THE LK CLDS/SHSN. GUSTY SW WINDS WL DVLP LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN DEPARTING HI PRES
RDG AND A LO PRES SLIDING INTO NW ONTARIO.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON AS A
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY NORTH WINDS
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS EVENING AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS. THE
NEXT PERIOD FOR STRONGER WINDS WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SW GALES TO 35 KNOTS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS STAY NEAR 30 KNOTS INTO THU AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
SLIDES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FROM CANADA...BRINGING
GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 30 KNOTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. A
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING WINDS LESS THAN 25 KNOTS FOR
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR LESS THAN 25 KNOTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ266-
267.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ TO 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/
WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ162-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
352 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR TROF
EXTENDING FM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF UPR RDG
OVER THE ROCKIES. SHRTWV/SFC LO PRES RESPONSIBLE FOR WDSPRD SN THAT
IMPACTED THE CWA LAST NGT INTO THIS MRNG IS EXITING TO THE NE THRU
SE CANADA...BUT ANOTHER SHRTWV DIGGING SE THRU THE UPR
MIDWEST/ACCOMPANYING DPVA AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/DEEP MSTR SHOWN
ON THE 12Z GRB RAOB AS WELL AS LINGERING CYC NNW FLOW OF COLDER AIR
DROPPING H85 TEMPS TOWARD -14C IS MAINTAINING SOME SN MAINLY NEAR LK
SUP. 12Z INL RAOB SHOWS MID LVL DRYING LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SHRTWV...AND BACK EDGE OF COLDER CLD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS DRYING IS PUSHING SEWD THRU THE CWA THIS AFTN.
SN INTENSITIES DIMINISHED QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THIS
DRYING. LOOKING UPSTREAM... THERE IS A SHRTWV OVER WRN CANADA RIDING
OVER THE ROCKIES RDG.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU WED WL BE ON POPS INTO THIS EVNG AND THEN ON
WINDS/POTENTIAL FOR SOME SN ON WED AFTN IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF SHRTWV NOW TOPPING THE ROCKIES RDG.
TNGT...EXPECT SN SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR LK SUP THIS EVNG IN LINGERING
CYC FLOW TO DIMINISH TNGT WITH ARRIVAL OF DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR
DVGC/MORE ACYC LLVL FLOW/WARMING H85 TEMPS ACCOMPANYING SFC RDG AXIS
THAT IS FCST TO FOLLOW INTO THE WRN LKS FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING
SHRTWV. ALTHOUGH THE LES WL PERSIST THRU THE EVNG UNTIL THE PASSAGE
OF THE H85 THERMAL TROF ARND 06Z...SHIFTING WINDS THAT LIMIT BAND
RESIDENCE TIME THRU THE EVNG WL ALSO LIMIT ADDITIONAL SN ACCUMS.
EVEN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SFC RDG AXIS TOWARD 12Z TO THE N OF HI
PRES CENTER BLDG INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...CLRG OF THE LO CLDS
MAY BE LIMITED OR AT LEAST SLOWED AS QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD LINGERS
UPSTREAM IN THE NRN PLAINS UNDER THE RDG AXIS THERE. LINGERING LO
CLDS AND STEADY BACKING WINDS WELL N OF THE SFC HI CENTER SHOULD
LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL...ESPECIALLY IF THE LO CLDS ARE QUITE
PERSISTENT. TENDED TO BUMP UP FCST MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.
WED...SHRTWV NOW RIDING THE ROCKIES RDG IS FCST TO DIG SE INTO NE MN
BY LATE IN THE DAY...WITH ACCOMPANYING DEEP SFC LO MOVING NEAR
THUNDER BAY BY LATE IN THE DAY. AS THE PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE SFC LO
PRES AND DEPARTING SFC HI PRES RDG TIGHTENS...SW H925 WINDS ARE FCST
TO INCRS UP TO 35-40KTS. ALTHOUGH HI STABILITY RELATED TO THE WAA
THAT IS FCST TO BOOST H85 TEMPS UP TO -5C BY 18Z WL LIMIT THE MIXING
OF THIS HIER MOMENTUM TO THE SFC...STILL EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO AT
LEAST REACH 30-35 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK
SUP. ALL THE NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW AREA OF SN IN COMMA TAIL OF THE
SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE CWA W-E IN THE AFTN. SINCE THE COMMA
TAIL/AXIS OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WL BE MOVING STEADILY...MSTR
INFLOW INTO THIS DISTURBANCE WL BE LIMITED PER NAM FCST H85
DEWPTS/H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY...AND SN/WATER RATIOS ARE FCST TO BE
POOR WITH A RATHER HI/THEN DGZ CENTERED ARND 13K FT AGL...EXPECT SN
ACCUMS TO BE AN INCH OR TWO AT THE MOST. CARRIED THE HIER POPS/SN
TOTALS OVER THE NRN CWA CLOSER TO THE SHRTWV TRACK.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
BRIEF RIDGING WILL BE FOUND ALOFT WEDNESDAY MORNING IN BETWEEN THE
MAIN TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW OVER FAR N QUEBEC THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TO N TX...AND A SECONDARY THROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS
S CENTRAL CANADA. AT THE SFC LOOK FOR INCREASING SW FLOW OUT AHEAD
OF THE CENTRAL CANADIAN LOW. 850MB WINDS WILL JUMP UP OUT OF THE WSW
TO 40-50KTS BRIEFLY BY 00Z THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WAA RISES 850MB TEMPS TO -5 TO -10C. IF CLOUD
COVER HOLDS OFF A COUPLE MORE HOURS...WILL NEED TO INCREASE TEMPS A
COUPLE MORE DEGREES OVER THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS FROM BIG BAY THROUGH
MUNISING AND GRAND MARAIS.
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... THE SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY EVENING...JUST ADVANCE OF THE SFC LOW SHIFTING
FROM JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z TO CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR BY 06Z
THURSDAY...AND JUST E OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. SOME
TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST WITH THE LOW AS IT MOVES
OVERHEAD. COLDER AIR WILL JUST BEGIN TO SLIDE IN ON THE NW FLOW BY
12Z THURSDAY /DOWN AROUND -10C CWA WIDE/. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND FAVORABLE N-NW FLOW NEAR THE SFC WILL HELP
KEEP LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE COOLEST
AIR /850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -15C LATE THURSDAY THROUGH MOST OF
THURSDAY NIGHT/ AND N-NW WINDS WILL GIVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LES E
OF A LINE FROM MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS AND WHITEFISH POINT. THE
500MB TROUGH OVERHEAD THURSDAY MORNING WILL PUSH E AND ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A BRIEF RIDGE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AT THE SFC.
YET ANOTHER LOW/CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE NEARING FROM S CENTRAL CANADA
FRIDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF SASKATCHEWAN AND S
MANITOBA AT 12Z FRIDAY WILL SLOWLY SINK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...REMAINING AS A TROUGH OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AS STRONGER LOW PRESSURE AND THE MAIN 500MB TROUGH NEARS
FROM CENTRAL CANADA. A SECONDARY LOW LOOKS TO SWING ACROSS UPPER
MI/LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY MORNING. AT LEAST THAT/S
THE CONSENSUS FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. THE 12Z ECMWF AT
12Z SUNDAY HAD THE SFC LOW OVER S HUDSON BAY/N ONTARIO AT 12Z
SUNDAY. EITHER WAY...LOOK FOR THE SYSTEM TO EXIT TO THE NE DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH A RIDGE AND COOLER AIR BUILDING IN FROM
CENTRAL CANADA ON MONDAY. EVEN SO...850MB TEMPS MONDAY LOOK TO ONLY
BE AROUND -10 TO -15C MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
EXPECT PREDOMINANT IFR CONDITIONS AT IWD/CMX TO IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS
AFTN WITH PASSAGE OF DISTURBANCE/DEEPER MSTR THAT ENHANCED THE SN
SHOWERS THIS MRNG. BEFORE THE PASSAGE OF THIS DISTURBANCE AT SAW...
VSBYS MAY DROP INTO THE IFR RANGE UNDER SOME LINGERING HEAVIER SHSN
AT TIMES THIS AFTN...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE THERE.
AS THE WINDS BACK TO THE W AND THEN THE SW LATE TNGT AND DRAW DRIER
AIR INTO THE UPR LKS...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE
OVERNGT...EARLIEST AT SAW AND LAST AT CMX...WHERE THE W WIND WL
UPSLOPE AND PROLONG THE LK CLDS/SHSN. GUSTY SW WINDS WL DVLP LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN DEPARTING HI PRES
RDG AND A LO PRES SLIDING INTO NW ONTARIO.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY AS A RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35
KNOTS POSSIBLE. NEXT PERIOD FOR STRONGER WINDS WILL BE WED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH SW GALES TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVER MOST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ALSO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS STAY NEAR 30 KNOTS
INTO THU AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION FROM CANADA...BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 30 KNOTS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A FEW GALE
FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING
WINDS LESS THAN 25 KNOTS FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ006.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ266-
267.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ TO 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/
WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ162-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
200 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
COOLER AIR ARRIVES TODAY THAT WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION.
MUCH OF THE SNOW HOWEVER WILL FALL NORTH OF I-96 AND NEAR THE LAKE
SHORE. THEN MOST AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. 131 WILL SEE A QUICK
BURST OF SNOW THIS EVENING...BEFORE LETTING UP OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER
WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
BRINGING LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.
IT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.
THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S EACH DAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1128 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
DECIDED TO GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN LOCATIONS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. INCOMING GUIDANCE SHOWS
DEEPER INVERSION HEIGHTS WITH THE WAVE PASSING THROUGH. DECENT
LIFT IS NOTED IN THE DGZ AS WELL. HRRR IS SHOWING STRONGER BANDING
AS WELL...SO IMPACTS APPEAR LIKELY IF YOU END UP UNDER ONE OF THE
BANDS. WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW WILL BE OVER FOR THE MORNING
COMMUTE...SLICK CONDITIONS COULD LINGER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
A WEAK LAKE ENHANCED EVENT WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH MOST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UNDER TWO INCHES. THEN A CLIPPER ARRIVES FOR WED
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE DGZ IS LARGELY UNSATURATED DURING THIS
PERIOD...SO PCPN SHOULD BE LIGHT...BUT COULD LARGELY BE FREEZING
DRIZZLE.
A SURFACE LOW WAS SLIDING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER EARLY THIS
MORNING. IT WAS DRAGGING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION AND ALL AREAS
WILL SEE THE LIGHT RAIN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY DAYBREAK.
THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THIS WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY...WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE PERSISTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA. SO EXPECT THE SNOW TO PERSIST ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 10 REGION
MUCH OF TODAY. HOWEVER THE AVAILABLE LIFT IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO
EXPECT ACCUMS TO ONLY BE 1-2 INCHES. A LOCALIZED 3 INCH REPORT IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH GROUND OF LAKE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...WITH H8
TEMPS ONLY INCHING DOWN TO AROUND -10C BY EVENING...THE LAKE EFFECT
INFLUENCE WILL REMAIN VERY MODEST TODAY. OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHWAY
REGION... EXPECT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMS TODAY.
THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL FLARE UP THIS EVENING AS COLDER AIR
CONTINUES TO POUR IN. HOWEVER THIS APPEARS LIKE A SHORT BURST AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
EXPECT AN INCH OR TWO OVER THE SW CORNER OF MI WITH A MEAN FLOW OF
300-310...OTHERWISE ACCUMS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
AFTER A QUIET WED...A CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR WED NIGHT AND THU.
THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS WELL NORTH...OVER THE SUPERIOR REGION. THEN
A COLD FRONT MOVES IN BY LATE THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THE DGZ MAY ONLY BRIEFLY BECOME SATURATED LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THU
WHEN SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY
BE THE PRIMARY PCPN TYPE AS THE MOISTURE REMAINS SHALLOW...AND BELOW
THE DGZ. WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY IT MAY PRODUCE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF LIFT...HELPING PRODUCE FREEZING DRIZZLE. WE WILL
WATCH HOW THIS PANS OUT...BUT WE MAY SEE IMPACTS FOR THE THURSDAY
EVENING COMMUTE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING WILL BE TAPERING OFF AND
ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL BLO 5 KFT AND THE
DGZ DRIES OUT AS SHORT LIVED SFC RIDGING MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY.
THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM LOW IS ALREADY APPROACHING ON FRIDAY WITH
SOME LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY AND SPREADING SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLUMN WARMS
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MOSTLY LIQUID PRECIP ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY AS A WEAK LOW EJECTS OUT FROM THE BASE OF A DEEPENING WESTERN
CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL BRING SOME RAIN OR A MIX ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND SNOW NORTH. THE PRIMARY LOW BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
BUT PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
THE FOCUS OF THE 18Z SET OF FCSTS IS LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY A HEAVIER PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN
SOME SPORADIC IFR AT KMKG WITH SHSN...BUT MVFR HAS BEEN THE
PREDOMINATE CONDITION.
WE EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BEGIN TO RAMP UP BY 00Z AT THE I-96
TERMINALS...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO COME AFTER 00Z
AS A STRONGER BAND SETS UP. THIS BAND WILL THEN DIMINISH TOWARD
08Z OR SO AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER WAVE MOVES BY. THE I-94 SITES
WILL SEE SNOW SHOWERS RAMP UP SOME...BUT WE DO NOT EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO BE AS BAD.
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HOLD ON THEN AFTER 08Z WITH A MVFR CIG
EXPECTED. SOME LOCAL IFR CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TOWARD THE
LAKESHORE...BUT THIS SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE
AFTER 08Z.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
WILL HOIST A SHORT-LIVED GALE WARNING FOR THIS MORNING SOUTH OF
HOLLAND. AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION...A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE BRIEFLY REALIZED EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS THREAT
DIMINISHES AS WE GET INTO MID MORNING. WE MAY NEED SEE ANOTHER
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
THE FLOOD THREAT REMAINS MINIMAL. RIVERS HAVE SEEN QUITE A BIT OF
IMPROVEMENT IN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH HAS BEEN FAIRLY
RAPID IN A FEW LOCATIONS. ICE IS STILL PRESENT IN MANY PLACES AS
THE RECENT MILDER CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SHORT-LIVED.
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS RATHER TAME IN
RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH FRIDAY. WARMTH WILL SURGE NORTHWARD FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH 40S POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THROUGHOUT THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF LOWER MICHIGAN. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COME IN
SMALL PIECES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE BACK END OF THE LONG
TERM...AROUND FEB. 2ND...BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIGGER ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE NAILED
DOWN THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A DECENTLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ037-038-
043-044-050-056-057-064-065-071-072.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1258 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
COOLER AIR ARRIVES TODAY THAT WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION.
MUCH OF THE SNOW HOWEVER WILL FALL NORTH OF I-96 AND NEAR THE LAKE
SHORE. THEN MOST AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. 131 WILL SEE A QUICK
BURST OF SNOW THIS EVENING...BEFORE LETTING UP OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER
WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
BRINGING LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.
IT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.
THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S EACH DAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1128 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
DECIDED TO GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN LOCATIONS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. INCOMING GUIDANCE SHOWS
DEEPER INVERSION HEIGHTS WITH THE WAVE PASSING THROUGH. DECENT
LIFT IS NOTED IN THE DGZ AS WELL. HRRR IS SHOWING STRONGER BANDING
AS WELL...SO IMPACTS APPEAR LIKELY IF YOU END UP UNDER ONE OF THE
BANDS. WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW WILL BE OVER FOR THE MORNING
COMMUTE...SLICK CONDITIONS COULD LINGER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
A WEAK LAKE ENHANCED EVENT WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH MOST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UNDER TWO INCHES. THEN A CLIPPER ARRIVES FOR WED
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE DGZ IS LARGELY UNSATURATED DURING THIS
PERIOD...SO PCPN SHOULD BE LIGHT...BUT COULD LARGELY BE FREEZING
DRIZZLE.
A SURFACE LOW WAS SLIDING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER EARLY THIS
MORNING. IT WAS DRAGGING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION AND ALL AREAS
WILL SEE THE LIGHT RAIN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY DAYBREAK.
THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THIS WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY...WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE PERSISTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA. SO EXPECT THE SNOW TO PERSIST ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 10 REGION
MUCH OF TODAY. HOWEVER THE AVAILABLE LIFT IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO
EXPECT ACCUMS TO ONLY BE 1-2 INCHES. A LOCALIZED 3 INCH REPORT IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH GROUND OF LAKE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...WITH H8
TEMPS ONLY INCHING DOWN TO AROUND -10C BY EVENING...THE LAKE EFFECT
INFLUENCE WILL REMAIN VERY MODEST TODAY. OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHWAY
REGION... EXPECT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMS TODAY.
THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL FLARE UP THIS EVENING AS COLDER AIR
CONTINUES TO POUR IN. HOWEVER THIS APPEARS LIKE A SHORT BURST AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
EXPECT AN INCH OR TWO OVER THE SW CORNER OF MI WITH A MEAN FLOW OF
300-310...OTHERWISE ACCUMS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
AFTER A QUIET WED...A CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR WED NIGHT AND THU.
THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS WELL NORTH...OVER THE SUPERIOR REGION. THEN
A COLD FRONT MOVES IN BY LATE THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THE DGZ MAY ONLY BRIEFLY BECOME SATURATED LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THU
WHEN SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY
BE THE PRIMARY PCPN TYPE AS THE MOISTURE REMAINS SHALLOW...AND BELOW
THE DGZ. WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY IT MAY PRODUCE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF LIFT...HELPING PRODUCE FREEZING DRIZZLE. WE WILL
WATCH HOW THIS PANS OUT...BUT WE MAY SEE IMPACTS FOR THE THURSDAY
EVENING COMMUTE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING WILL BE TAPERING OFF AND
ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL BLO 5 KFT AND THE
DGZ DRIES OUT AS SHORT LIVED SFC RIDGING MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY.
THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM LOW IS ALREADY APPROACHING ON FRIDAY WITH
SOME LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY AND SPREADING SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLUMN WARMS
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MOSTLY LIQUID PRECIP ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY AS A WEAK LOW EJECTS OUT FROM THE BASE OF A DEEPENING WESTERN
CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL BRING SOME RAIN OR A MIX ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND SNOW NORTH. THE PRIMARY LOW BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
BUT PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
THE FOCUS OF THE 18Z SET OF FCSTS IS LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY A HEAVIER PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN
SOME SPORADIC IFR AT KMKG WITH SHSN...BUT MVFR HAS BEEN THE
PREDOMINATE CONDITION.
WE EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BEGIN TO RAMP UP BY 00Z AT THE I-96
TERMINALS...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO COME AFTER 00Z
AS A STRONGER BAND SETS UP. THIS BAND WILL THEN DIMINISH TOWARD
08Z OR SO AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER WAVE MOVES BY. THE I-94 SITES
WILL SEE SNOW SHOWERS RAMP UP SOME...BUT WE DO NOT EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO BE AS BAD.
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HOLD ON THEN AFTER 08Z WITH A MVFR CIG
EXPECTED. SOME LOCAL IFR CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TOWARD THE
LAKESHORE...BUT THIS SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE
AFTER 08Z.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
WILL HOIST A SHORT-LIVED GALE WARNING FOR THIS MORNING SOUTH OF
HOLLAND. AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION...A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE BRIEFLY REALIZED EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS THREAT
DIMINISHES AS WE GET INTO MID MORNING. WE MAY NEED SEE ANOTHER
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1152 AM EST MON JAN 25 2016
IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS THIS AFTERNOON. RECENT
TROUBLE SPOTS...SUCH AS THE GRAND RIVER AT IONIA AND PERE MARQUETTE
AT SCOTTVILLE...ARE SHOWING STEADY DECLINES.
THE ICE HAS BEEN STABLE AT OTHER LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT SW LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING...BEGINNING MOSTLY AS RAIN. COOLER AIR WILL ALLOW RAIN
TO CHANGE TO SNOW BY TUESDAY MORNING. GENERAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3
INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED. THE ONSET OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD BE
LIGHT...LEADING TO THE NOTION THAT WHAT DOES FALL AS RAIN WILL
MOSTLY BE TRAPPED IN THE SNOWPACK. SNOW THAT FOLLOWS WITHIN THE
COLDER AIR SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT EITHER.
FLOOD CONCERNS CONTINUE TO REMAIN MINIMAL WITH PRIMARY FOCUS
REMAINING ON ANY POSSIBILITY FOR ICE MOVEMENT.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-044-050-056-057-064-065-071-
072.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1131 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
COOLER AIR ARRIVES TODAY THAT WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION.
MUCH OF THE SNOW HOWEVER WILL FALL NORTH OF I-96 AND NEAR THE LAKE
SHORE. THEN MOST AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. 131 WILL SEE A QUICK
BURST OF SNOW THIS EVENING...BEFORE LETTING UP OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER
WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
BRINGING LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.
IT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.
THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S EACH DAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1128 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
DECIDED TO GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN LOCATIONS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. INCOMING GUIDANCE SHOWS
DEEPER INVERSION HEIGHTS WITH THE WAVE PASSING THROUGH. DECENT
LIFT IS NOTED IN THE DGZ AS WELL. HRRR IS SHOWING STRONGER BANDING
AS WELL...SO IMPACTS APPEAR LIKELY IF YOU END UP UNDER ONE OF THE
BANDS. WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW WILL BE OVER FOR THE MORNING
COMMUTE...SLICK CONDITIONS COULD LINGER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
A WEAK LAKE ENHANCED EVENT WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH MOST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UNDER TWO INCHES. THEN A CLIPPER ARRIVES FOR WED
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE DGZ IS LARGELY UNSATURATED DURING THIS
PERIOD...SO PCPN SHOULD BE LIGHT...BUT COULD LARGELY BE FREEZING
DRIZZLE.
A SURFACE LOW WAS SLIDING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER EARLY THIS
MORNING. IT WAS DRAGGING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION AND ALL AREAS
WILL SEE THE LIGHT RAIN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY DAYBREAK.
THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THIS WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY...WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE PERSISTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA. SO EXPECT THE SNOW TO PERSIST ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 10 REGION
MUCH OF TODAY. HOWEVER THE AVAILABLE LIFT IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO
EXPECT ACCUMS TO ONLY BE 1-2 INCHES. A LOCALIZED 3 INCH REPORT IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH GROUND OF LAKE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...WITH H8
TEMPS ONLY INCHING DOWN TO AROUND -10C BY EVENING...THE LAKE EFFECT
INFLUENCE WILL REMAIN VERY MODEST TODAY. OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHWAY
REGION... EXPECT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMS TODAY.
THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL FLARE UP THIS EVENING AS COLDER AIR
CONTINUES TO POUR IN. HOWEVER THIS APPEARS LIKE A SHORT BURST AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
EXPECT AN INCH OR TWO OVER THE SW CORNER OF MI WITH A MEAN FLOW OF
300-310...OTHERWISE ACCUMS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
AFTER A QUIET WED...A CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR WED NIGHT AND THU.
THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS WELL NORTH...OVER THE SUPERIOR REGION. THEN
A COLD FRONT MOVES IN BY LATE THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THE DGZ MAY ONLY BRIEFLY BECOME SATURATED LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THU
WHEN SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY
BE THE PRIMARY PCPN TYPE AS THE MOISTURE REMAINS SHALLOW...AND BELOW
THE DGZ. WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY IT MAY PRODUCE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF LIFT...HELPING PRODUCE FREEZING DRIZZLE. WE WILL
WATCH HOW THIS PANS OUT...BUT WE MAY SEE IMPACTS FOR THE THURSDAY
EVENING COMMUTE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING WILL BE TAPERING OFF AND
ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL BLO 5 KFT AND THE
DGZ DRIES OUT AS SHORT LIVED SFC RIDGING MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY.
THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM LOW IS ALREADY APPROACHING ON FRIDAY WITH
SOME LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY AND SPREADING SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLUMN WARMS
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MOSTLY LIQUID PRECIP ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY AS A WEAK LOW EJECTS OUT FROM THE BASE OF A DEEPENING WESTERN
CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL BRING SOME RAIN OR A MIX ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND SNOW NORTH. THE PRIMARY LOW BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
BUT PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
SNOW SHOWERS AND CEILINGS AROUND 1500 FEET AGL ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR AT TIMES IN THE HEAVIER
SNOW BANDS. WINDS WILL BE WEST AROUND 15 KNOTS TODAY WITH GUSTS
OVER 25 KNOTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
WILL HOIST A SHORT-LIVED GALE WARNING FOR THIS MORNING SOUTH OF
HOLLAND. AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION...A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE BRIEFLY REALIZED EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS THREAT
DIMINISHES AS WE GET INTO MID MORNING. WE MAY NEED SEE ANOTHER
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1152 AM EST MON JAN 25 2016
IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS THIS AFTERNOON. RECENT
TROUBLE SPOTS...SUCH AS THE GRAND RIVER AT IONIA AND PERE MARQUETTE
AT SCOTTVILLE...ARE SHOWING STEADY DECLINES.
THE ICE HAS BEEN STABLE AT OTHER LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT SW LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING...BEGINNING MOSTLY AS RAIN. COOLER AIR WILL ALLOW RAIN
TO CHANGE TO SNOW BY TUESDAY MORNING. GENERAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3
INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED. THE ONSET OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD BE
LIGHT...LEADING TO THE NOTION THAT WHAT DOES FALL AS RAIN WILL
MOSTLY BE TRAPPED IN THE SNOWPACK. SNOW THAT FOLLOWS WITHIN THE
COLDER AIR SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT EITHER.
FLOOD CONCERNS CONTINUE TO REMAIN MINIMAL WITH PRIMARY FOCUS
REMAINING ON ANY POSSIBILITY FOR ICE MOVEMENT.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-044-050-056-057-064-065-071-
072.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
347 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE NORTHLAND TOMORROW...WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST 12Z MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...OTHER THAN MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES...AND GENERALLY INCREASED PCPN AMOUNTS. INCREASED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH...AROUND 3 INCHES. HELD OFF ON A WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINE...BUT THE EVENING OR NIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO ISSUE ONE IF
THE SNOWFALL FORECAST TRENDS A BIT GREATER.
AT 330 PM...THE NORTHLAND HAD WNW TO NW FLOW AND BKN/OVC STRATUS.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 20S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST...WITH A POTENT
SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WAS OVER NW ONTARIO...SE MANITOBA...AND THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS.
THERE WILL BE LINGERING OVERCAST STRATUS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERING LATER TONIGHT WHEN
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL ALSO
BE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN IRON COUNTY...WHERE AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
HIGHER CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT...AND ITS POSSIBLE
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP PROP UP THE TEMPERATURES...AS
WELL AS THE SW FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A LITTLE ABOVE 10 DEGREES.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DIG ACROSS CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
AND MANITOBA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND NW ONTARIO DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS CLIPPER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT
SHORTWAVE WITH THE PASSING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BRING A QUICK BURST OF SNOW...BEGINNING IN THE NW DURING
THE MIDDLE MORNING...AND SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. THE SNOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTIER
WINDS...ABOUT 10 TO 20 MPH...SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF
VISIBILITY APPROACHING A HALF MILE OR LESS WHEN THE SNOW IS AT ITS
MOST INTENSE. WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
FORECAST...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...SUCH
AS OVER THE BOUNDARY WATERS. HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT THERE COULD
BE BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE WAKE OF
THE MAIN BAND OF SNOW...WHEN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS DRY AND THERE
REMAINS A RELATIVELY WARM LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER. THE NAM12
SOUNDINGS HAVE A SHORT PERIOD WHERE THE SATURATED LAYER COULD BE
DEEP ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT ENOUGH OF MOISTURE FOR DRIZZLE...BUT
THE GFS SOUNDINGS ARE NOT NEARLY AS DEEP. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN
ITS OCCURRENCE...SO LEFT FREEZING DRIZZLE OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE
NIGHT SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO LOOK MORE INTO DETAIL INTO THIS THREAT
WHEN THE HRRR AND RAP13 ARE WITHIN RANGE OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW
30S.
MORE SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MAINTAINING LOW CHANCES OF LINGERING SNOW AND FLURRIES.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER WILL NOT PASS THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY...SO OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND 5 TO 15 MPH WIND SPEEDS. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
DEPARTING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY MORNING. COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW SHOULD
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LES IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. RELATIVELY HIGH
WIND SPEEDS IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER SUGGESTS THE SNOW SHOWERS
WOULD PENETRATE WELL INLAND. AS A RESULT HAVE HELD ONTO HIGHER
POPS SOUTHEAST INTO SAWYER AND PRICE COUNTIES THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL DEPART FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH THE
EXITING LOW...SO THINK AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW ANOTHER INCH OR TWO AT
THE MOST.
THE NEXT QUICK HITTING SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THERE ARE PRETTY DISTINCT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC MEMBERS AND HAVE KEPT POPS
UNCHANGED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOISTURE SEEMS LIMITED AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...MAINLY WHATEVER BITS OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN IT CAN CARRY
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THINK SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH THE LARGER TOTALS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND OVER
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE ARROWHEAD.
BEHIND CLIPPER NUMBER TWO...GUIDANCE SEEMS SPLIT BETWEEN THE
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION OF A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND...AND THE GFS WHICH BRINGS ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EVEN WITH THE MORE ZONAL
BLEND...THINK THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIFT LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA TO SUPPORT LOW CHANCE POPS/CLOUDS.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS SEEM TO TREND TOWARD A
SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH THE HANDLING OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM TROF. QUASI-ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS/CONTINUES OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE TROF BEGINS TO DIG
INTO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND -SHSN ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR AS DRIER AIR
ALOFT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS RETURNING TO MVFR. AS UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES
INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT...LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF LLWS OR GUSTY WINDS. HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD LLWS FOR NOW SINCE MIXING SEEMS LIMITED. ANOTHER
ROUND OF -SN AND ASSOCIATED VSBY REDUCTIONS IS ANTICIPATED
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AFFECTING INL FIRST...AND SPREADING EAST-
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR CIGS WITH THE LIGHT
SNOW AND LATER UPDATES MAY NEED TO PUSH VSBYS INTO IFR CAT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 12 30 26 27 / 0 90 30 10
INL 12 31 23 26 / 0 90 50 10
BRD 12 33 28 30 / 0 60 10 10
HYR 11 31 28 31 / 0 80 40 20
ASX 14 32 27 30 / 10 80 40 50
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...HUYCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1138 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
Post frontal stratus overspreads the area this morning with
temperatures below freezing. This stratus deck is only a few hundred
meters thick according to RAP forecast soundings, with dry air
within the dendritic growth layer, so snow flurries are unlikely
with any of this stratus through the day. There was some hope
earlier that perhaps these clouds would mix out today, given that
forecast soundings indicated a T/Td spread within the cloud bearing
level, but latest RAP soundings for today continue to indicate
saturation through the day, and thus no breaks in the cloud cover.
Considering how thin the saturated layer is, it wouldn`t be
inconceivable to see a few temporary breaks in the clouds through
the day. At any rate, the good news is that the surface ridge
responsible for this latest push of cold air will push to the east,
with the southerly wind bearing back side of the ridge moving in for
Wednesday. The switch in winds will allow for a gradual warm up for
the rest of the week, starting with 30s and 40s for Wednesday, then
warming into the 50s by Friday. H85 temperatures for Friday could
push the double digits (C), so with any half decent mixing in the
lower levels temperatures could conceivably shoot through the 50s
and land in the 60s, mainly along and south of Interstate 70. Even
north of I-70 there could be temperatures in the 50s. Given the
zonal mid level flow with little signs of any support for ascent
expect the remainder of the week to be dry. The weekend should see
temperatures remain well above seasonal averages, with dry weather
through at least Saturday. By Sunday hints of a pattern change
appears to be in the works.
By Sunday, both EC and GFS are indicating a deep western trough
carving its way into the otherwise zonal flow aloft. Ahead of this
trough a surface low will glide through the area, generally without
event, although north of the low there could be some very light
precipitation late Sunday into Monday. However, the bigger event
next week would be in the Monday-Tuesday time frame as the
previously mentioned trough ejects eastward. This trough has the
potential to cause some high impact winter weather across portions
of the Great Plains and MO/MS River Valleys early/middle next week.
While the models have been generally inconsistent in resolving this
trough, there seems to be a better signal or momentum within the GFS
and EC to take the system on what seems to be the more preferred
track for winter storms this season, which is through northern
Kansas and eastern Nebraska. This track would generally leave most
of NE Kansas and NW Missouri out of its cross hairs. However, the
12z EC reminded us that the track will still likely take a few
twists and turns before being more finely resolved, likely sometime
this weekend. While the 12z EC indicated a track that would bring a
significant winter storm to this area, the 00z GFS/EC have generally
indicated the track of the system closer to what the previous runs
prior to the 12z EC indicated, which is more of a northern track. At
any rate, much about this potential system next week is up in the
air, and uncertainty with respect to any potential impacts is very
high.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1138 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
Main focus for this TAF issuance will be the west-to-east erosion of
stratus occurring across far eastern KS this afternoon. Expect that
the eastward progression will slow as it approaches the state line,
but could see pockets of sunshine within the next few hours, and an
improvement to scattered VFR cigs by mid- to late-aftn especially at
KIXD. Eventually, all sites will clear out by 03z, leaving VFR
conditions for the remainder of the period. Northwest winds will
gradually lessen this afternoon, becoming light westerly overnight
and increasing once again out of the south southwest by late
Wednesday morning.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Laflin
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1140 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUDS.
THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE ICING AND SNOW TO THE LOCAL AREA
MONDAY IS NOW PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SNOW AMOUNTS (IN
INCHES) WERE 0.3 AT OMA/3.1 AT LNK/0.1 AT OFK . THAT BRINGS THE
SEASONAL TOTALS TO 21.1/13.2/24.5 RESPECTIVELY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION AND NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...WILL BRING SOME REINFORCING COLD AIR INTO IOWA. A BAND OF
CLOUDS IN THIS NORTHWEST SHOULD PERSIST...THEN TEND TO BREAK UP
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM HAD SOME CAPE
ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE HRRR WAS INDICATING SOME
FLURRIES POSSIBLE. WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW COVERAGE. WITH THE
CLOUDS/SOME BREAKS AND RECENT SNOW...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S TO LOWER 30S CAN BE EXPECTED.
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WE ARE LOOKING FOR A LESS ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN AND FOR TEMPERATURES TO TRY TO WARM INTO THE 30S AND 40S.
SOME WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK H85 TROUGH
PASSAGE. ANY COOLING IS SHORT-LIVED AS WARM WEDGE OF AIR ARRIVES
FRIDAY. NOT SURE THAT WE WILL MAKE THE 50S FRIDAY...HOWEVER
NEIGHBORS DO HAVE 50S IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
...POTENTIAL WINTER STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK...STILL A LONG WAY OUT
THOUGH...
A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY AND COULD AFFECT AREAS TOWARD SIOUX CITY...HOWEVER LOOKS
MAINLY DRY LOCALLY. A STRONG 130KT JET PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND BY FRIDAY NIGHT HAS MADE IT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THE EC HAS STRONG WARMING WITH RIPPLE IN
THE FLOW AND A THERMAL GRADIENT WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A
TROUGH HAS MOVED ONSHORE.
MONDAY AND ON GROUNDHOG`S DAY...THE MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL
STORM TRACKING FROM THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION INTO THE PLAINS. THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM COULD HAVE MIXED PRECIPITATION...BEFORE IT TURNS TO
ALL SNOW. THE 00Z LONG-RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. SINCE THE
ORIGINS OF THE STORM ARE STILL SEVERAL THOUSAND MILES OFF THE
WEST COAST AND WILL NOT COME ONSHORE UNTIL SUNDAY...IT IS STILL A
LONG WAYS OUT AND THE EVOLUTION CAN CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
MVFR CIGS NEAR FL025 WILL GRADUALLY LIFT/MOVE EAST OF TAF SITES
BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z. LIGHT WINDS COMBINED WITH SATURATED LOW LEVEL
ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MVFR
FOG AT ALL SITES BEFORE 06Z...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR VSBYS
BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z WHEN 1/2SM VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE. A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO HIGH-END MVFR VSBYS IS EXPECTED BY 16Z WEDNESDAY.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DERGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1115 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
THE RAP MODEL MOVES THE BANK OF STRATUS ACROSS NCNTL NEB VERY
SLOWLY EAST TODAY AND PRESUMABLY INTO THE MISSOURI BASIN TONIGHT.
THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY. A BLEND
OF 4 MOS DATA SETS PLUS BIAS CORRECTION SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 40S SOUTH TO LOWER 30S NORTH.
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS MORNING
WILL BE OVER MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
850-700MB WINDS INCREASE TO 25 TO 35KT TONIGHT WITH WARM AIR
ADVANCING SIMILARLY. H850 TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 2 TO 5C. THIS
WOULD LIKELY LIMIT LOWS TO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. NO SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
WARM UP CONTINUES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS WESTERN RIDGE
EXPANDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE WARM
TEMPS WITH 850 MB TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
0C...WHILE THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENT WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 10C
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NOT SURPRISING THE CORRESPONDING MOS
GUIDANCE IS COOLER FOR THE MEX. BELIEVE THE GFS COOL DOWN IS
SOMEWHAT RELATED TO THE RECENT SNOW FALL. SOME MELTING OCCURRED
YESTERDAY AND EXPECT MORE EACH PASSING DAY SO BY FRIDAY MOST
AREAS WILL SEE LITTLE...THUS WILL CONTINUE FORECAST SIMILAR TO
GOING...WHICH IS CLOSER TO WARMER EC.
NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED SATURDAY. MODELS ARE WAVERING
ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WITH A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST ON
PRECIP. TEMPS WILL BE COOLING...HOWEVER AFTERNOON STILL WARMS
ABOVE FREEZING AND RAIN OR A MIX IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST FOR
THE AFTERNOON.
A SECONDARY WAVE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A
BETTER SHOT AT PRECIP. AGAIN TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY AS AFTERNOON TEMPS NEAR 40 COULD SEE A MIX BAG FOR PRECIP
TYPE.
EARLY NEXT WEEK A TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS REGION.
MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. MODELS HAVE NOT
SHOWN GREAT CONSISTENCY OVER THE PASS SEVERAL RUNS WITH THE
TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND WILL GO WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE
MODEL BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
VFR CONDITIONS AND WEST WINDS UNDER 12 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. DEPENDING HOW
QUICKLY THE STRATUS DECK OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA MOVES EAST
TONIGHT...THERE IS AN OFF CHANCE OF SOME FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING
NEAR KONL.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...SNIVELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
121 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 117 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
ONLY A NARROW PATCH OF DENSE FOG REMAINS IN THE RAY AND TIOGA
AREAS AS OF 19 UTC...THUS...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED
ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WITH THIS UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 951 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 19 UTC ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AS WEBCAM AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THROUGH 1545 UTC
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN EXPANSION OF THE DENSE FOG.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 844 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
ADDED FOG TO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA PER WEBCAM AND SURFACE
OBSERVATION TRENDS THROUGH 1430 UTC. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS THIS MORNING AS THE 12 UTC NAM NEST AND 12-13 UTC HRRR
ITERATIONS IN THEIR CEILING AND VISIBILITY FIELDS SUGGEST THIS FOG
AND STRATUS MAY LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
WE ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH 17 UTC OVER WEST
CENTRAL AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND...FROM WATFORD CITY TO BEACH AND
BOWMAN...WITH THIS UPDATE. THAT WAS BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS
AND HRRR SIMULATIONS. WE ALSO CUT BACK THE MENTION OF FLURRIES IN
THE FORECAST SO THAT IT ONLY EXTENDS FROM CROSBY OVER TOWARD RUGBY
AND JAMESTOWN BASED ON AWOS/ASOS TRENDS IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
NO MAJOR FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
CURRENTLY...STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION. EXTENSIVE
AREA OF STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION IS
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHICH HAS BEEN CLEAR FOR THE BETTER PART
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. STRATUS IS SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTH AND
WEST...BUT IT NOW APPEARS THE SOUTHWEST CORNER WILL REMAIN STRATUS
FREE THIS MORNING.
FINALLY EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO SLOWLY SCATTER OUT AND LIFT
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ALLOWING
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S EAST WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN FOR MOST OF
THE AFTERNOON...TO THE LOW 30S SOUTHWEST WHICH REMAINS STRATUS
FREE.
CLIPPER SYSTEM ADVECTING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA WILL BRING STRONG WAA AND BREEZY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
THIS EVENING WEST AND OVERNIGHT CENTRAL AND EAST. EXPECT THIS TO
RESULT IN STEADY TO RISING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS LIKELY RECORDING THEIR 24 HOUR HIGHS MID TO LATE
EVENING. MODELS BRING SOME LIGHT QPF TO MY NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES...AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION...AFTER 06Z. THERMAL
PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST FREEZING RAIN. MENTIONED THIS IN THE HWO
FOR TONIGHT/WED MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK...BEFORE A COOL-
ARRIVES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER TRACKS NORTH OF THE STATE WITH A CORE OF 50
KT 850-MB WINDS ON ITS SOUTHWESTERN FLANK. WE ARE A BIT CONCERNED
ABOUT HEADLINE-WORTHY WINDS...BUT THE 00 UTC MODEL SUITE PROVIDED
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THAT GIVEN 1/ A MAXIMUM MIXING DEPTH UNDER 850
MB...2/ A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...AND 3/ SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES OF 3 MB/3 HOURS OR LESS. HAVING SAID THAT...THE PROBABILITY
OF ADVISORY-TYPE WINDS WILL BE GREATEST /THOUGH SUBJECTIVELY ONLY
NEAR 40 PERCENT/ FROM MINOT TOWARD JAMESTOWN WHERE LOW-LEVEL COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE PROMINENT. ANOTHER CLIPPER IS
THEN EXPECTED TO BRING MORE GUSTY WINDS ON FRIDAY. MILD WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THIS REGIME...WITH HIGHS
WARMEST /IN THE 40S F/ OVER SOUTHWESTERN ND.
BY THIS WEEKEND...FLOW ALOFT WILL DEAMPLIFY AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL
AS A PACIFIC TROUGH REACHES THE WEST COAST AND THEN MOVES EASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 00 UTC GFS
AND ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLES SUGGEST MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THAT
TROUGH WILL STAY SOUTH OF ND...BUT THE MULTI-MODEL BLEND THAT WAS
USED TO BUILD THE FORECAST STILL SUPPORTED LOW-END PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN SEVERAL PERIODS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST BOTH DUE TO
THE FRIDAY CLIPPER PASSAGE AND THEN THE PATTERN TRANSITION. HIGHS
WILL FALL BACK TOWARD NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
MVFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AT KMOT/KBIS/KJMS MAY FALL TOWARDS IFR
AFTER SUNSET AND THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE EVOLUTION OF THE
STRATUS THROUGH THE NIGHT IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. KDIK AND KISN ARE
FAVORED TO REMAIN VFR FOR THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
WESTERLY GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1211 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE
LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL PASS TO
THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON THURSDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SECOND CLIPPER ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRONT NOW EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. REPLACED POPS IN THE EAST
WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN INDIANA AND SHOULD
BE TO THE I-75 CORRIDOR BY 12Z. JUST A FEW SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON
RADAR BUT THE LATEST RUC AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE SHOWERS
POPPING UP AS THE FRONT ARRIVES. COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH 50 PERCENT OF LESS PRECIP CHANCES. A DRY SLOT
BEHIND THE LOW WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. DO NOT
EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR BUT A FEW BREAKS CERTAINLY ARE POSSIBLE.
PRETTY GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS
OCCURRING EARLY. GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE WAY TOO LOW SO HAVE TRIED TO
INTERPOLATE CURRENT TEMPS TO WHAT THEY WILL BE AT 12Z AND HAVE
USED THOSE NUMBERS FOR TODAYS HIGHS. CRITICAL THICKNESSES
EVENTUALLY GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW LATE IN THE DAY. BY THAT TIME
HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE VERY LITTLE PRECIP. EXPECT MOST OF THE
AREA TO BE COMPLETELY DRY FROM LATE MORNING ON. READINGS BY SUNSET
SHOULD IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BY 00Z 850 MB TEMPS OVER NW PA WILL BE ABOUT NEG 9 WITH TEMPS
DIPPING TO NEG 12 BY 12Z. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT
BUT NOTHING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. WE WILL ALSO START OUT WITH A
REALLY LOW INVERSION THIS EVENING SO THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE WILL
BE SLOW TO GET GOING TONIGHT. A SECONDARY TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
ROTATE ACROSS THE LATE TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE TO GET A FEW WEAK BANDS SET UP. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS BUT ACCUMS OF ONLY AN INCH OF TWO. AWAY FROM THE LAKE
EFFECT AREAS SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY OVERCAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TO MAKE SURE NO SNOW FROM LAKE MICHIGAN MAKES IT TO THE KTOL AREA
IN THE WNW FLOW. THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BY SUNSET THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL BE OVER EVER IN NW
PA. MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE AWAY FROM THE LAKE. THE MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT TRACKING A CLIPPER TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON
THURSDAY. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH OF THE LAKE BUT WILL HANG ON TO A SMALL
MENTION MAINLY IN NW PA IN CASE SOME LIGHT SNOW DOES DEVELOP. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER APPROACHING
FROM THE NW AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND LIFT
NORTH ON SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. MODELS LIFT THIS FEATURE NORTH FAIRLY QUICKLY BUT THAT WILL
BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE GET CLOSER AS WARM FRONTS CAN
STRUGGLE TO MOVE NORTH OF THE COLD LAKES. KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW 40S ON
SATURDAY MOST AREAS AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT.
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW
MORE DEGREES DESPITE AMPLE CLOUD COVER. NOT CLEAR AT THIS POINT IF
THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA OR STALL ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THIS DOES SET THE STAGE FOR A WARM
AND MOIST PATTERN INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THIS BOUNDARY
LINGERS NEAR THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PROVIDING A SUPPLY OF MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINDS GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
COLD AIR RUSHES INTO THE REGION BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR WITH HEIGHTS AROUND 1500FT THROUGH MOST
OF THE 24 TAF PERIOD. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LIFT OF CEILING TO
AROUND 2200FT LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE DECK FALLS AGAIN. PRECIP
IS LIMITED TO FLURRIES AT THIS TIME AND SHOULD NOT EFFECT
VISIBILITIES. BY TONIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING BY TO OUR
NORTH WHICH COULD TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MAINLY IMPACTING ERI.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY. NON VFR RETURNS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT FRONT. NON VFR
AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 25
KNOTS ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE AND 35 KNOT GALES ON THE EAST END
OF THE LAKE. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 11 FEET ON THE FAR EAST END OF
THE LAKE. WINDS WILL DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON THURSDAY AND PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE
EARLY FRIDAY. A RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ061-148-149-168-
169.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...DJB/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC/JAMISON
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1140 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE
LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL PASS TO
THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON THURSDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SECOND CLIPPER ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRONT JUST WEST OF AKRON CANTON AREA. FEW SHOWERS NEAR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BUT LITTLE ELSE. REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THE
WESTERN HALF...AND LOWERED POPS IN THE EAST TO 30 POP FOR 930
UPDATE.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN INDIANA AND SHOULD
BE TO THE I-75 CORRIDOR BY 12Z. JUST A FEW SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON
RADAR BUT THE LATEST RUC AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE SHOWERS
POPPING UP AS THE FRONT ARRIVES. COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH 50 PERCENT OF LESS PRECIP CHANCES. A DRY SLOT
BEHIND THE LOW WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. DO NOT
EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR BUT A FEW BREAKS CERTAINLY ARE POSSIBLE.
PRETTY GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS
OCCURRING EARLY. GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE WAY TOO LOW SO HAVE TRIED TO
INTERPOLATE CURRENT TEMPS TO WHAT THEY WILL BE AT 12Z AND HAVE
USED THOSE NUMBERS FOR TODAYS HIGHS. CRITICAL THICKNESSES
EVENTUALLY GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW LATE IN THE DAY. BY THAT TIME
HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE VERY LITTLE PRECIP. EXPECT MOST OF THE
AREA TO BE COMPLETELY DRY FROM LATE MORNING ON. READINGS BY SUNSET
SHOULD IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BY 00Z 850 MB TEMPS OVER NW PA WILL BE ABOUT NEG 9 WITH TEMPS
DIPPING TO NEG 12 BY 12Z. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT
BUT NOTHING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. WE WILL ALSO START OUT WITH A
REALLY LOW INVERSION THIS EVENING SO THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE WILL
BE SLOW TO GET GOING TONIGHT. A SECONDARY TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
ROTATE ACROSS THE LATE TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE TO GET A FEW WEAK BANDS SET UP. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS BUT ACCUMS OF ONLY AN INCH OF TWO. AWAY FROM THE LAKE
EFFECT AREAS SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY OVERCAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TO MAKE SURE NO SNOW FROM LAKE MICHIGAN MAKES IT TO THE KTOL AREA
IN THE WNW FLOW. THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BY SUNSET THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL BE OVER EVER IN NW
PA. MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE AWAY FROM THE LAKE. THE MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT TRACKING A CLIPPER TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON
THURSDAY. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH OF THE LAKE BUT WILL HANG ON TO A SMALL
MENTION MAINLY IN NW PA IN CASE SOME LIGHT SNOW DOES DEVELOP. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER APPROACHING
FROM THE NW AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND LIFT
NORTH ON SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. MODELS LIFT THIS FEATURE NORTH FAIRLY QUICKLY BUT THAT WILL
BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE GET CLOSER AS WARM FRONTS CAN
STRUGGLE TO MOVE NORTH OF THE COLD LAKES. KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW 40S ON
SATURDAY MOST AREAS AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT.
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW
MORE DEGREES DESPITE AMPLE CLOUD COVER. NOT CLEAR AT THIS POINT IF
THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA OR STALL ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THIS DOES SET THE STAGE FOR A WARM
AND MOIST PATTERN INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THIS BOUNDARY
LINGERS NEAR THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PROVIDING A SUPPLY OF MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WINDS GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
COLD AIR RUSHES INTO THE REGION BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR WITH HEIGHTS AROUND 1500FT THROUGH MOST
OF THE 24 TAF PERIOD. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LIFT OF CEILING TO
AROUND 2200FT LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE DECK FALLS AGAIN. PRECIP
IS LIMITED TO FLURRIES AT THIS TIME AND SHOULD NOT EFFECT
VISIBILITIES. BY TONIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING BY TO OUR
NORTH WHICH COULD TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MAINLY IMPACTING ERI.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY. NON VFR RETURNS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT FRONT. NON VFR
AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 25
KNOTS ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE AND 35 KNOT GALES ON THE EAST END
OF THE LAKE. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 11 FEET ON THE FAR EAST END OF
THE LAKE. WINDS WILL DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON THURSDAY AND PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE
EARLY FRIDAY. A RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ061-148-149-168-
169.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...DJB/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC/JAMISON
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
450 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER A RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON...
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SEASONABLY COLDER AND AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN
ALLEGHENIES...AND GENERALLY DRY ELSEWHERE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL 88D LOOP AND SFC OBS SHOWS SOME PATCHY VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
DRIFTING NEWD...ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WAS PUSHING
EAST AND OFF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...NEAR THE I-99 CORRIDOR AT
1930Z. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...IS AN EXPANDING RIBBON OF LIGHT RAIN SEEN STREAKING TO
THE NE FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS AREA LIGHT RAIN WAS
BLOSSOMING IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING UVVEL AND LLVL CONVERGENCE
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC-850 MB FRONT AND RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 150 KT JET...WHOSE AXIS WAS LOCATED JUST TO THE NW OF
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AT MID AFTERNOON. 12Z NAM...15Z SREF AND THE
18Z HRRR ALL SHOW A FEW HUNDREDTHS...TO AS MUCH AS 0.10 OF AN INCH
OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES WHILE
LOCATIONS TO THE NW OF INTERSTATE 81 SEE LITTLE OR NOTHING FROM
THIS VERY WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES AT THE SFC AND JET ENERGY ALOFT.
THE RELATIVELY MILD SWLY WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPS
INTO THE LOW- MID 40S IN MANY LOCATION FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE THE BEST DOWNSLOPE
LLVL FLOW AND ADIABATIC WARMING RIGHT BEHIND THE CFRONT WILL BE
FROM KAOO TO KUNV WHERE TEMPS COULD BRIEFLY JUMP TO THE U40S TO
NEAR 50F IN THE 19-22Z PERIOD.
MEAN...925-850 MB WET BULB ZERO ISOTHERM /AND THE LOCATION OF THE
COLD FRONT/ ATTM EXTENDED FROM NEAR KBFD TO KPIT. THE LIGHT
RAIN/SHOWERS WILL BE CHANGING OVER TO FLURRIES AND SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AFTER THE CFRONTAL PASSAGE...THE GENERALLY QUITE SHALLOW
AND WARM STRATO CU WILL SUPPORT NOTHING MORE THAN SOME FLURRIES
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION TONIGHT.
SW TO WEST SFC WIND WILL QUICKLY FRESHEN NEAR AND IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...AND WILL GUST BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT /WEST/...AND THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
FURTHER TO THE EAST - ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
ACCOMPANYING THE GRADUAL DROP IN TEMPERATURES /AND WARM STRATUS
AND STRATOCU CLOUD LAYER CONTAINING MAINLY SUPERCOOLED WATER
DROPLETS/...COULD BE A BRIEF...FEW-HOUR PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
THIS EVENING ALONG THE FAVORED WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS BEFORE THE
COLD AIR DEEPENS ENOUGH AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF THE
LOWER LAKES. THE FZDZ IS A LOW PROB EVENT THOUGH. A MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION /LESS THAN 1 INCH/ IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK 12Z
WEDNESDAY OVER THE NW MTNS...AND PERHAPS A FRESH LIGHT COATING
OVER THE LAURELS.
LOW TEMPS EARLY WED WILL VARY FROM 23 OR 24F ACROSS THE WRN MTNS
/WHERE THE BREEZE AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP READINGS SEVERAL DEG
F OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS/...TO THE UPPER 20S
IN THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION LKLY FROM THE NW
ALLEGHENIES INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES
WED NGT AND BRINGS AN END TO THE LES ACTIVITY. WEDNESDAY/S HIGH
TEMPS SLIDE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY WITH WED NIGHT
LOWS BTWN 10-20F -- COLDEST READINGS IN THE SOUTH WHERE THE DEEPER
SNOWPACK WILL HANG TOUGH.
MODELS TRACK CLIPPER LOW NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TOWARD NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z FRIDAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLY COLDER W/NW FLOW
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT AND
OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN MTNS THUR NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTERN SYSTEM WILL NOT
PHASE WITH THE TROUGH AND THUS REMAIN FAR ENOUGH EAST TO PRECLUDE
ANY PRECIP REACHING BACK INTO THE LOWER SUSQ. BUT THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH WILL SPREAD GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS INTO NW HALF OF
CWA THROUGH LATE WEEK AS BRISK SW FLOW TURNS TO THE NW...OPENING
UP THE LAKES TO LIKELY IMPACT FAR NW SNOWBELT WITH A PERIOD OF
MORE INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BANDS LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
FAST ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGS A WEAK RIDGE THROUGH FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT...BUT THEN SERIES OF WEAKER WAVES SLIDE THROUGH THE
REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPS WARM UP A BIT...BRINGING IMPACTS
FROM GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW CEDING TO RAIN. HOWEVER THERE IS GREATER
MODEL DIVERGENCE SO CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW. HOWEVER THE
PATTER DOES SHOW ANOTHER FRONT POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE.
EASTERN AREAS STILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS.
FURTHER WEST...A GUSTY SW FLOW OF FRESH SPRING LIKE MILD
AIR.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE 21Z TAFS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
VFR TO MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST OF THE MVFR
CONDITIONS CONFINED TO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY /3-5SM VSBYS/...AND
THE MTNS OF NW PENN /DUE TO CIGS BETWEEN ABOUT 1300-2300 FT AGL/.
SOME AREAS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL STREAM QUICKLY NE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS SLICING THROUGH ALLEGHENIES
OF WRN PENN AT 1930Z.
THE BEST CHANCE OF A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF STEADIER LIGHT RAIN AND
MVFR VSBYS/CIGS WILL BE NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KTHV
TO KLNS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...AS A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT RIPPLES NE ALONG THE APPROACHING
CFRONT.
A BRIEF FEW HOUR PERIOD OF -FZDZ IS POSSIBLE /20-30 PERCENT
PROBABILITY/ AT KBFD AND KJST BEFORE THE AIR COOLS ENOUGH IN THE
CLOUD LAYER TO SUPPORT ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AND SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
LLWS CONFINED TO AIRFIELDS IN THE SUSQ VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/ WILL ALSO END IN THE WAKE OF THE CFROPA...THEN WSW TO
WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WED...AM LOW CIGS/-SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST PA.
FRI-SAT...OCNL SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE W MTNS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/RXR
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
254 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER A RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON...
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SEASONABLY COLDER AND AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN
ALLEGHENIES...AND GENERALLY DRY ELSEWHERE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL 88D LOOP AND SFC OBS SHOWS SOME PATCHY VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
DRIFTING NEWD...ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WAS PUSHING
EAST AND OFF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...NEAR THE I-99 CORRIDOR AT
1930Z. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...IS AN EXPANDING RIBBON OF LIGHT RAIN SEEN STREAKING TO
THE NE FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS AREA LIGHT RAIN WAS
BLOSSOMING IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING UVVEL AND LLVL CONVERGENCE
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC-850 MB FRONT AND RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 150 KT JET...WHOSE AXIS WAS LOCATED JUST TO THE NW OF
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AT MID AFTERNOON. 12Z NAM...15Z SREF AND THE
18Z HRRR ALL SHOW A FEW HUNDREDTHS...TO AS MUCH AS 0.10 OF AN INCH
OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES WHILE
LOCATIONS TO THE NW OF INTERSTATE 81 SEE LITTLE OR NOTHING FROM
THIS VERY WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES AT THE SFC AND JET ENERGY ALOFT.
THE RELATIVELY MILD SWLY WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPS
INTO THE LOW- MID 40S IN MANY LOCATION FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE THE BEST DOWNSLOPE
LLVL FLOW AND ADIABATIC WARMING RIGHT BEHIND THE CFRONT WILL BE
FROM KAOO TO KUNV WHERE TEMPS COULD BRIEFLY JUMP TO THE U40S TO
NEAR 50F IN THE 19-22Z PERIOD.
MEAN...925-850 MB WET BULB ZERO ISOTHERM /AND THE LOCATION OF THE
COLD FRONT/ ATTM EXTENDED FROM NEAR KBFD TO KPIT. THE LIGHT
RAIN/SHOWERS WILL BE CHANGING OVER TO FLURRIES AND SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AFTER THE CFRONTAL PASSAGE...THE GENERALLY QUITE SHALLOW
AND WARM STRATO CU WILL SUPPORT NOTHING MORE THAN SOME FLURRIES
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION TONIGHT.
SW TO WEST SFC WIND WILL QUICKLY FRESHEN NEAR AND IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...AND WILL GUST BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT /WEST/...AND THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
FURTHER TO THE EAST - ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
ACCOMPANYING THE GRADUAL DROP IN TEMPERATURES /AND WARM STRATUS
AND STRATOCU CLOUD LAYER CONTAINING MAINLY SUPERCOOLED WATER
DROPLETS/...COULD BE A BRIEF...FEW-HOUR PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
THIS EVENING ALONG THE FAVORED WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS BEFORE THE
COLD AIR DEEPENS ENOUGH AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF THE
LOWER LAKES. THE FZDZ IS A LOW PROB EVENT THOUGH. A MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION /LESS THAN 1 INCH/ IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK 12Z
WEDNESDAY OVER THE NW MTNS...AND PERHAPS A FRESH LIGHT COATING
OVER THE LAURELS.
LOW TEMPS EARLY WED WILL VARY FROM 23 OR 24F ACROSS THE WRN MTNS
/WHERE THE BREEZE AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP READINGS SEVERAL DEG
F OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS/...TO THE UPPER 20S
IN THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION LKLY FROM THE NW
ALLEGHENIES INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES
WED NGT AND BRINGS AN END TO THE LES ACTIVITY. WEDNESDAY/S HIGH
TEMPS SLIDE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY WITH WED NIGHT
LOWS BTWN 10-20F -- COLDEST READINGS IN THE SOUTH WHERE THE DEEPER
SNOWPACK WILL HANG TOUGH.
MODELS TRACK CLIPPER LOW NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TOWARD NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z FRIDAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLY COLDER W/NW FLOW
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT AND
OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN MTNS THUR NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTERN SYSTEM WILL NOT
PHASE WITH THE TROUGH AND THUS REMAIN FAR ENOUGH EAST TO PRECLUDE
ANY PRECIP REACHING BACK INTO THE LOWER SUSQ. BUT THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH WILL SPREAD GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS INTO NW HALF OF
CWA THROUGH LATE WEEK AS BRISK SW FLOW TURNS TO THE NW...OPENING
UP THE LAKES TO LIKELY IMPACT FAR NW SNOWBELT WITH A PERIOD OF
MORE INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BANDS LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
FAST ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGS A WEAK RIDGE THROUGH FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT...BUT THEN SERIES OF WEAKER WAVES SLIDE THROUGH THE
REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPS WARM UP A BIT...BRINGING IMPACTS
FROM GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW CEDING TO RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR TO MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MOST OF THE MVFR CONDITIONS CONFINED TO THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY /3-5SM VSBYS/...AND THE MTNS OF NW PENN /DUE TO CIGS
BETWEEN ABOUT 1300-2300 FT AGL/.
SOME AREAS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL STREAM QUICKLY NE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS SLICING THROUGH ALLEGHENIES
OF WRN PENN AT 1930Z.
THE BEST CHANCE OF A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF STEADIER LIGHT RAIN AND
MVFR VSBYS/CIGS WILL BE NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KTHV
TO KLNS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...AS A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT RIPPLES NE ALONG THE APPROACHING
CFRONT.
A BRIEF FEW HOUR PERIOD OF -FZDZ IS POSSIBLE /20-30 PERCENT
PROBABILITY/ AT KBFD AND KJST BEFORE THE AIR COOLS ENOUGH IN THE
CLOUD LAYER TO SUPPORT ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AND SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
LLWS CONFINED TO AIRFIELDS IN THE SUSQ VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/ WILL ALSO END IN THE WAKE OF THE CFROPA...THEN WSW TO
WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WED...AM LOW CIGS/-SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST PA.
FRI-SAT...OCNL SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE W MTNS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1122 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
.AVIATION...
KEWX AND KDFX RADARS ARE SHOWING SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION OVER THE HILL COUNTRY...WITH SUFFICIENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES. THUS...WILL HAVE TO INCLUDE SOME THUNDER IN THE KSAT AND
KSSF TERMINALS EARLY IN THE FORECAST...WHERE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
THUNDER ARE. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE OUT THUNDER AT KDRT (NOT A LOT OF
STRIKES OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS) AND KAUS (A BIT FARTHER NORTH) BUT
DID MENTION RAIN (TEMPOS WITH VCSH). SHOULD SEE MOST OF THE
CONVECTION TAPER OFF BY EARLY EVENING...AND WILL NOT MENTION RAIN
AFTER 27/01Z. CIGS WILL BE VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING (MVFR CIGS OR NEAR MVFR WITH TSRA/SHRA)...WITH
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CIGS TOWARD 27/12Z AS THE UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO
MOVE FARTHER SOUTH AND ALLOWS DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE TERMINAL
AREAS. GUSTY NNE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN UP FOR A WHILE
(GUSTS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING)...WITH WINDS REMAINING AOA 11
KNOTS UNTIL LATE IN THE KAUS AND KSAT TERMINALS AS THE RIDGE BEGINS
TO SETTLE INTO THE RIO GRANDE AREA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX/
UPDATE...
HAVE INCREASED POPS LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE DEL RIO AREA
NORTHWARD TOWARDS CROCKETT AND SUTTON COUNTIES WITH AN AREA OF
SHOWERS PUSHING THROUGH. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
ALSO NOTED WITHIN THE PAST HOUR SO HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER
ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE WE ARE STARTING SEE BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WITH INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE
MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. NAM-12 SHOWS A PRETTY GOOD AREA OF -2 TO -3C
SHOWALTER INDEX ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER WITH TOTAL TOTALS AROUND
55C...MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER HERE AS WELL. 12Z DEL RIO SOUNDING
SHOWED -20C AT 500MB SO A LOT OF THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN BY
COLD POOL INTERACTION WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND PASSING
SHORTWAVES. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME SMALL PEA
SIZE HAIL/GRAUPEL MAY FALL WITHIN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS BUT NOT
ENTIRELY CONFIDENT TO ADD ANY ENHANCED WORDING INTO THE GRIDS AT
THIS TIME. FINALLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER NORTHWESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY THIS EVENING
BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THOUGH.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016/
AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREA SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE LATE THIS EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS
OF THE COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
NEAR TEXAS COAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON TODAY AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST TO 50 MILES INLAND TOWARDS LAVACA AND DEWITT COUNTIES ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE AREA. A
SHARP 20F DEWPOINT GRADIENT IS NOTED BETWEEN GONZALES AND
VICTORIA AS OF 3AM. THIS FRONT SHOULD STALL THROUGH THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEPER NORTHWESTERN
MOMENTUM. PER WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS, A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER NEW MEXICO INTO NORTH MEXICO.
THIS FEATURE WILL AID IN MID-LEVEL INCREASED DIVERGENCE THROUGH
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE AREA BEING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, ENOUGH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN A VERY WEAK ELEVATED UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISO/SCT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. UPDRAFTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ROBUST AND THUNDER IS
NOT EXPECTED GIVEN THE VERY POOR LAPSE RATES IN THE H7-H5 LAYER
ABOVE THE STRONG INVERSION. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN
PLACED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAINS WHERE THE UPGLIDE
AND MOISTURE WILL BE MORE ENHANCED. ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HIGH WITH MAX TOTALS IN SCATTERED LOCATIONS BETWEEN
ONE TENTH AND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE
LESS. STRONGER NORTHERLY MOMENTUM WILL ENSUE TONIGHT WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE TROUGH AND ISENTROPIC DOWNSLOPING WILL COMMENCE -
THUS ENDING THE RAIN CHANCES BY LATE EVENING.
DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH AND WEST WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS
PWATS DROP TO 0.3" OR BELOW ON WEDNESDAY. MORE SUN IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOUT 5 F DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH ONE COLD
MORNING EXPECTED THURSDAY THAT WILL BE THEN FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WARM UP TO NORMAL AND THEN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REACH NEAR 80 DEGREES BY
SUNDAY WITH AMPLE SUN LIKELY. THE NEXT RAIN CHANCE MAY NOT COME
UNTIL NEXT TUESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THE NEXT WEEK
WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
AND LOWER 30S EVERYWHERE ELSE. SEVERAL MOS GUIDANCE VALUES
SUGGESTED LOWER VALUES VS. ORIGINAL BLEND GUIDANCE AND FOLLOWED
SUIT BY TRIMMING 2F DEGREES OFF. DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER
20S AND WITH NEAR CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS - THIS WOULD LIKELY
SET THE STAGE FOR A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOL OFF THAT WOULD OVER
ACHIEVE VS. WHAT RAW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. WITH SUCH DRY AIR
IN PLACE, LARGE DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE THE NORM BY LATE WEEK AS
HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 60S THURSDAY AFTN THEN 70S FRI/SAT. BY
SUNDAY...H925 TEMPS WILL REACH 18-20C THAT WILL SUPPORT SURFACE
VALUES CLOSE TO 80F DEGREES. DESPITE A POSSIBLE TROUGH PASSAGE
SATURDAY, MOISTURE APPEARS TOO LOW FOR ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND WITH GENERAL ZONAL FLOW NOTED
OTHERWISE. IT IS NOT TILL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN A LARGER TROUGH
TAKES FORM OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THEN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF AGREE THAT A FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD OCCUR
LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME-FRAME WITH LOW-END RAIN OR POSSIBLY EVEN
THUNDER CHANCES. HAVE ONLY PLACE 20% AT THIS PARTICULAR POINT WITH
A GENERALLY QUIET WEEK AHEAD. LONGER RANGE MODEL SUITE DOES
INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING SUBSTANTIALLY BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK HOWEVER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 55 37 57 34 66 / 20 10 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 55 36 56 29 65 / 20 10 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 55 37 58 31 66 / 20 10 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 53 33 55 31 65 / 20 10 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 57 38 60 32 68 / 100 10 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 53 35 54 30 65 / 20 10 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 56 36 59 29 67 / 50 10 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 54 37 56 31 65 / 20 10 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 55 39 56 31 64 / 50 20 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 55 38 57 33 66 / 20 10 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 56 38 58 32 67 / 20 20 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...99
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1251 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT AND WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER....AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST TUESDAY...
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN MOVED INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OVER THE
PAST COUPLE HOURS AND COVERAGE HAS SLOWLY INCREASED EASTWARD AS OF
17Z. BUMPED POPS UP A BIT ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY BUT
OTHERWISE HELD STEADY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. MOST OF THE
REGION IS CLOUDY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE DANVILLE...HALIFAX...AND BUCKINGHAM ARE
STILL REPORTING CLR SKIES. BUMPED HIGH TEMPS UP SEVERAL DEGREES
OUT EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASED SUNSHINE.
AS OF 945 AM EST TUESDAY...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS POINT ARE ALL ABOVE
FREEZING SO THE CONCERN ABOUT ANY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS HAS PASSED. HRRR IS STILL CONSISTENT WITH
BRINGING PRECIP IN TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AFTER 17Z...JUST
LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE THEN.
CONTINUING TO STAY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON.
AS OF 350 AM EST TUESDAY...
VORTICITY MAX OVER MICHIGAN WAS MOVING NORTHEAST WITH THE SURFACE
LOW OVER MICHIGAN AND THE COLD FRONT TRAILING INTO NORTHERN
LOUISIANA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY BUT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
FROM JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...THE FRONT WILL BECOME PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER FLOW
AND MAKE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS SOUTHEAST.
00Z NAM ALONG WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL WRF HAD REASONABLE
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY. THE FIRST AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS MORNING. MET AND MAV GUIDANCE...AS WELL
AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED LOWER LAYERS SATURATING AND
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS RISING EARLY THIS MORNING. BY THE
TIME THE PRECIPITATION IS ABLE TO SURVIVE ALL THE WAY TO THE
SURFACE...ONLY PARTS OF GREENBRIER COUNTY HAVE ANY THREAT OF
FREEZING RAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
RISING ABOVE FREEZING BY 10AM.
THE THIN BAND OF RAIN FROM OHIO INTO LOUISIANA WILL MOVE EAST WITH
THE FRONT...REACHING THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH PROGRESS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UNTIL AFTER 21Z/4PM.
EVENTUALLY SURFACE AND 850 MB FRONT PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT...ENOUGH COLD AIR ARRIVES TO CHANGE THE
PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...ON THE NORTHWEST
EDGE OF WHERE THE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
RETREATING SOUTHEAST. SO FOR NOW LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIMITED TO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.
STAYED CLOSE TO MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY AND MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EST TUESDAY...
BY 12Z(7 AM EST) WEDNESDAY...ALL THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS FORECAST
THE COLD FRONT TO BE WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY (ANAFRONT)...AND THE FORECAST AREA
STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A DEPARTING
UPPER LEVEL JET...PRECIP WILL LINGER WELL BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY UNTIL
LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR ARRIVES. THE NAM AND 21Z SREF ARE SEVERAL
HOURS SLOWER IN PUSHING PRECIP OUT OF THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...KEPT POPS IN THE EAST UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.
IF THE SLOWER SREF/NAM VERIFY...THIS WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCES OF
THE LIGHT RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE THE
PRECIP ENDS. OVER TIME...THE SREF PLUMES SHOW FEW MEMBERS
SUPPORTING SNOW. STILL KEPT A COUPLE OF HOURS OF A SMALL CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP WEDNESDAY...BUT NO
ACCUMULATION OF WINTRY PRECIP IS EXPECTED.
WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...CONTINUED TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR THE COLDER
NAM MOS GUIDANCE VALUES.
NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR SO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE...CONTINUE
TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WHICH MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND KEEPING THIS FEATURE WELL
EAST OF OUR AREA. AS CONFIDENCE GROWS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT
IMPACT OUR AREA...WE CONTINUE TO PUSH POPS DOWN IN THE EAST ON
THURSDAY.
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER NOW ANTICIPATED ON THURSDAY...AND A DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW...INCREASED HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY OUR ATTENTION SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTHERN
STREAM...WHERE A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY...BUT BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...AND FORECAST TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY
BE ABLE TO TAP SOME GREAT LAKE MOISTURE PRODUCING UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES. INTRODUCED SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS PERIOD FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...
LONGER RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA
WILL TRANSITION FROM A DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
INTO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFIES WELL OFFSHORE....TO MORE OF A FLAT ZONAL
FLOW BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SOME 1-3" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE
PREFERRED UPSLOPE AREAS...MOST NOTABLY WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY
WV.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPERATURE BACK TO WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AND SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN WHAT THEY OTHERWISE WOULD BE DUE TO COOLING INFLUENCE OF
MELTING DEEP SNOWPACK...AND ADJUSTED THERMAL PROFILES DOWNWARD A TAD
FROM GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH MAY NOT BE ACCOUNTING FOR
THE FULL INFLUENCE OF COOLING UNTIL THE DEEPER SNOWPACK IS FINALLY
ERODED AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO/THROUGH THE 40S SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY.
WEAK MEAN RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO DEFLECT NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH INCREASING WARM MOIST ADVECTION ON
WEST-WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE
APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM TUESDAY...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IS
STARTING TO ENTER THE REGION...WITH SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY JUST ABOUT
REACHING THE BLUE RIDGE. THE PARENT LOW DRIVING THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WELL TO OUR NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WHILE PIECES OF ENERGY RIPPLE ALONG IT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION AND SPREAD
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AND SHOWERS INTO TAF SITES. BEHIND THE FRONT
KBLF/KLWB/KBCB WILL GET INTO SOME UPSLOPE IFR CIGS WITH SOME
DRIZZLE...AND AS TEMPERATURES FALL THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE PRECIPITATION GOES OVER TO SNOW. SITES FURTHER
EAST WILL HAVE NO PTYPE ISSUES AND WILL SEE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT/TOWARD DAYBREAK. EXPECT VFR FOR KROA/KLYH/KDAN
FOR WEDNESDAY WITH CONDITIONS TRENDING UPWARD DURING THE MORNING AT
KBCB/KLWB/KBLF.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW CONTINUES TO BE BRISK SO WILL RETAIN SPEED WIND SHEAR FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. WITH BETTER MOMENTUM TRANSFER BEHIND THE
FRONT SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE ESPECIALLY
KROA AND KBLF.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
OTHERWISE AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IN STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW AND
INCREASINGLY COLD AIR MAY PROVIDE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND -SHSN
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED
FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST WHERE WILL REMAIN UNDER DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1250 PM EST TUESDAY...
OBSERVATION EQUIPMENT AT KBCB...VIRGINIA TECH AIRPORT...HAS
RETURNED TO SERVICE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/CF
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...MBS
EQUIPMENT...AMS/CF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1247 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT AND WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER....AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST TUESDAY...
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN MOVED INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OVER THE
PAST COUPLE HOURS AND COVERAGE HAS SLOWLY INCREASED EASTWARD AS OF
17Z. BUMPED POPS UP A BIT ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY BUT
OTHERWISE HELD STEADY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. MOST OF THE
REGION IS CLOUDY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE DANVILLE...HALIFAX...AND BUCKINGHAM ARE
STILL REPORTING CLR SKIES. BUMPED HIGH TEMPS UP SEVERAL DEGREES
OUT EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASED SUNSHINE.
AS OF 945 AM EST TUESDAY...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS POINT ARE ALL ABOVE
FREEZING SO THE CONCERN ABOUT ANY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS HAS PASSED. HRRR IS STILL CONSISTENT WITH
BRINGING PRECIP IN TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AFTER 17Z...JUST
LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE THEN.
CONTINUING TO STAY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON.
AS OF 350 AM EST TUESDAY...
VORTICITY MAX OVER MICHIGAN WAS MOVING NORTHEAST WITH THE SURFACE
LOW OVER MICHIGAN AND THE COLD FRONT TRAILING INTO NORTHERN
LOUISIANA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY BUT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
FROM JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...THE FRONT WILL BECOME PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER FLOW
AND MAKE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS SOUTHEAST.
00Z NAM ALONG WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL WRF HAD REASONABLE
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY. THE FIRST AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS MORNING. MET AND MAV GUIDANCE...AS WELL
AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED LOWER LAYERS SATURATING AND
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS RISING EARLY THIS MORNING. BY THE
TIME THE PRECIPITATION IS ABLE TO SURVIVE ALL THE WAY TO THE
SURFACE...ONLY PARTS OF GREENBRIER COUNTY HAVE ANY THREAT OF
FREEZING RAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
RISING ABOVE FREEZING BY 10AM.
THE THIN BAND OF RAIN FROM OHIO INTO LOUISIANA WILL MOVE EAST WITH
THE FRONT...REACHING THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH PROGRESS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UNTIL AFTER 21Z/4PM.
EVENTUALLY SURFACE AND 850 MB FRONT PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT...ENOUGH COLD AIR ARRIVES TO CHANGE THE
PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...ON THE NORTHWEST
EDGE OF WHERE THE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
RETREATING SOUTHEAST. SO FOR NOW LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIMITED TO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.
STAYED CLOSE TO MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY AND MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EST TUESDAY...
BY 12Z(7 AM EST) WEDNESDAY...ALL THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS FORECAST
THE COLD FRONT TO BE WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY (ANAFRONT)...AND THE FORECAST AREA
STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A DEPARTING
UPPER LEVEL JET...PRECIP WILL LINGER WELL BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY UNTIL
LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR ARRIVES. THE NAM AND 21Z SREF ARE SEVERAL
HOURS SLOWER IN PUSHING PRECIP OUT OF THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...KEPT POPS IN THE EAST UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.
IF THE SLOWER SREF/NAM VERIFY...THIS WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCES OF
THE LIGHT RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE THE
PRECIP ENDS. OVER TIME...THE SREF PLUMES SHOW FEW MEMBERS
SUPPORTING SNOW. STILL KEPT A COUPLE OF HOURS OF A SMALL CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP WEDNESDAY...BUT NO
ACCUMULATION OF WINTRY PRECIP IS EXPECTED.
WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...CONTINUED TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR THE COLDER
NAM MOS GUIDANCE VALUES.
NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR SO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE...CONTINUE
TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WHICH MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND KEEPING THIS FEATURE WELL
EAST OF OUR AREA. AS CONFIDENCE GROWS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT
IMPACT OUR AREA...WE CONTINUE TO PUSH POPS DOWN IN THE EAST ON
THURSDAY.
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER NOW ANTICIPATED ON THURSDAY...AND A DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW...INCREASED HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY OUR ATTENTION SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTHERN
STREAM...WHERE A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY...BUT BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...AND FORECAST TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY
BE ABLE TO TAP SOME GREAT LAKE MOISTURE PRODUCING UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES. INTRODUCED SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS PERIOD FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...
LONGER RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA
WILL TRANSITION FROM A DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
INTO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFIES WELL OFFSHORE....TO MORE OF A FLAT ZONAL
FLOW BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SOME 1-3" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE
PREFERRED UPSLOPE AREAS...MOST NOTABLY WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY
WV.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPERATURE BACK TO WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AND SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN WHAT THEY OTHERWISE WOULD BE DUE TO COOLING INFLUENCE OF
MELTING DEEP SNOWPACK...AND ADJUSTED THERMAL PROFILES DOWNWARD A TAD
FROM GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH MAY NOT BE ACCOUNTING FOR
THE FULL INFLUENCE OF COOLING UNTIL THE DEEPER SNOWPACK IS FINALLY
ERODED AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO/THROUGH THE 40S SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY.
WEAK MEAN RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO DEFLECT NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH INCREASING WARM MOIST ADVECTION ON
WEST-WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE
APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM TUESDAY...
CEILINGS WERE LOWERING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION AND
WERE ALREADY MVFR AT KLWB AND KBLF. USED THE TIMING OF THE LAST
FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR...THE 00Z LOCAL WRF AND THE 00Z NAM FOR THE
ARRIVAL OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH 13Z/9AM AT KLWB WILL BE BELOW FREEZING SO VERY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH RADARS IN THE AREA WERE NOT
SHOWING MUCH PRECIPITATION AS OF 12Z.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DUE TO A
STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET...LLWS WAS STILL INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS. SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST
AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST. EXPECTING THE FRONT TO BE
SOUTHEAST OF KDAN BY 09Z/4AM TONIGHT.
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED WITH RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS COLDER AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE PRECIPITATION SLOWS DOWN...THEN
COULD SEE A PERIOD OF SNOW OR MIX MOUNTAINS BY LATE TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE OCCURRENCE OF SNOW AT KLWB AND KBLF.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
LATEST MODELS INDICATE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE
MOISTURE WITH MOST NOW INDICATING VFR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IN STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW AND
INCREASINGLY COLD AIR MAY PROVIDE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND -SHSN
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED
FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST WHERE WILL REMAIN UNDER DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS EARLY SATURDAY.
NOTE...AWOS OBSERVATION EQUIPMENT AT KBCB...VIRGINIA TECH
AIRPORT...IS OUT OF SERVICE. AMD NOT SKED HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE
TAF.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 650 AM EST TUESDAY...
OBSERVATION EQUIPMENT AT KBCB...VIRGINIA TECH AIRPORT...IS OUT OF
SERVICE. SOME ELEMENTS OF THE SURFACE OBSERVATION...INCLUDING SKY
COVER...PRECIPITATION AND WIND...WILL NOT BE REPORTED UNTIL THIS
IS REPAIRED.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/CF
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...AMS/JH
EQUIPMENT...AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
336 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
.TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM
A CONCENTRATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO TRANSLATE THROUGH
S WI THIS EVENING....WHICH SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS TO S WI FOR THE EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE VERY MUCH...BETWEEN A FEW TENTHS TO LESS THAN ONE INCH AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED. DESPITE LOW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...THERE COULD BE SOME
DECENT BURSTS OF SNOW...WHICH COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES...DUE TO
ENHANCED MOISTENING IN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS. RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WHICH COULD LEAD
TO THESE BURSTS OF LIGHT SNOW. ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN THE SATURATION
LAYER SHOULD HELP SUPPORT THIS LIGHT SNOW AS WELL. THE HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD STAY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.
THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT QUICKLY TONIGHT NEAR
06Z...WHICH SHOULD PUT US INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ENHANCE COLD AIR
ADVECTION OVER OUR REGION... WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER
TEENS FAHRENHEIT.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE QUIET AS A CORRIDOR OF NEGATIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE...THANKS TO BACKING WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION DURING THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S. THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW RETURNING TO S WI
LATE WEDNESDAY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN LOW ONCE AGAIN FOR THAT EVENT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DROPS THROUGH REGION UNDER ULD IN LEFT EXIT
REGION OF UPPER JET BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. WARM ADVECTION WING DROPS
ACROSS CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH THE STRONGER LOW-LAYER Q-
VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CWA AROUND 06Z.
WILL TIME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE AREA WITH THE STINKIER ISENTROPIC
ADIABATIC OMEGA AND LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SHOWN ON
THE ISENTROPIC FORECASTS...WHICH ALIGN WITH THE NARROW TIME PERIOD
OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS.
MID-UPPER LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE REMAINS STRONG AHEAD OF THE
VORT MAX...BUT MID-LEVELS DRYING OUT AFTER 06Z. STILL TOP OF MOIST
LAYER TOUCHING THE -10C SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS SNOW
OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF AS FORCING WITH MID-UPPER TROUGH AXES
SHIFT EAST BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WARM ADVECTION BRINGS EVENING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S THEN
SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT.
.THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
MODELS PAINTING OUT SOME LIGHT QPF WITH SECONDARY VORT MAX SWEEPS
ACROSS WISCONSIN LATE THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. GFS AND ECMWF MORE
ROBUST WITH MOISTURE AND LIFT BUT MOISTURE IS SHALLOW ON SOUNDINGS.
WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW BUT COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES. ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S IN THE BLENDED SOLUTIONS LOOK REASONABLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
SHORT WAVE RIDGING BRINGS A DRY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. FLOWS TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL
ORIENTATION FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK TAKES
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER FRIDAY AND
LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
WARM ADVECTION PCPN LOOKS TO BRUSH THE NORTHERN CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DYNAMICALLY FORCED PCPN AS THE TROUGH
CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. CONSENSUS OF MODELS PUTS HEAVIEST
PCPN AND HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NRN WI CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW. 925 MB TEMPS IN THE WARM ADVECTION BRING FRIDAY HIGHS
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...WITH NO DROP OFF IN THE WESTERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE WAVE FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING LOWS AROUND 30.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW
MODEL DIFFERENCES ABOUND WITH TIMING/STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVES IN
THE ZONAL UPPER FLOW THAT SETS UP OVER REGION. LOOKS WARM AND DRY
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 40. THEN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS WITH SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT SETS UP OVER THE REGION. ECMWF AND CANADIAN
GEM PUT PCPN OVER NRN WI SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHILE MORE
VIGOROUS LOW IN THE GFS BRINGS A GOOD SLUG OF PCPN TO THE ENTIRE
STATE.
SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT AND LIFTING NE TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AFFECTING THE
AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE FASTER ECMWF...OR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION. LOOKS AS IF THE SE
HALF OF THE CWA WOULD SEE SOME LIQUID PCPN AT THE OUTSET...THOUGH
GFS IS A BIT COOLER THAN THE ECMWF WITH ALL SNOW MORE LIKELY. TIGHT
GRADIENT AROUND LOW WILL ASSURE WINDY CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
MAINLY MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST FOR THE TAF
SITES TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. CIG HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN 1-3
KFT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR VSBYS AS LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF BY THE LATE EVENING. WINDS
SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING FOR
BRISK AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS DUE TO INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS MOVING AWAY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI AND INTO CANADA. ANOTHER
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND WIND GUSTS APPROACHING GALE
FORCE ARE FORECAST.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...JTS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...REM
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A COMPACT
SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THIS
SHORTWAVE IS HELPING TO CREATE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
ACROSS THE REGION. THE BACK EDGE OF THE WIDESPREAD SNOW ACTIVITY
SEEMS TO BE MOVING EAST OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
HOWEVER...BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH SPOTTY FLURRIES EXTEND
INTO MINNESOTA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE
LIGHT SNOW/CLOUD TRENDS TONIGHT...THEN SNOW POTENTIAL WITH A FAST
MOVING CLIPPER ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...COMPACT SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT EASTERN WISCONSIN BY MID-
EVENING...WHICH WILL END THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW CHANCE ACROSS THE
EAST. FLURRIES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING
THOUGH. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST A FEW HOURS
LONGER...BUT BACKING FLOW AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES IN WILL CAUSE
TRAJECTORIES TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMS LOOK
MINOR...ONLY A TENTH OR TWO. OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL
SHIFT INTO THE STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM
THOUGH...SO WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT FOR CLEARING TO
OCCUR. THINK THE COMBO OF CLOUDS AND 5-8 KTS WIND SPEEDS WILL
PREVENT TEMPS FROM PLUMMETING DESPITE THE FRESH SNOW COVER. LOWS
COULD FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS IN THE COLD SPOTS OF N-C
WI...BUT MAINLY LOOKING AT LOW TO MID TEENS FOR TEMPS.
WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THINK WILL HAVE SOME SUN DURING
THE MORNING...BUT CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE LOOKS A LITTLE MORE BULLISH WITH PRECIP
POTENTIAL AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER...AND HAVE INCREASED CHANCES SOME.
COULD SEE A LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCH OVER THE FAR NORTH...AND LESS
THAN AN INCH NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND MAY CREATE MINOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING. HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS QUITE
DYNAMIC BUT SHORT ON MOISTURE. IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AN
INCH OR SO OF SNOW IN THE NORTH WITH LESS TO THE SOUTH. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY THURSDAY THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT.
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD
ALSO BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW IN THE NORTH AND
LESS ELSEWHERE. A WAVE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME
SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THOUGH THERE ARE SOME SUBSTANTIAL
MODEL DIFFERENCES.
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM STILL LOOKS LIKELY SOMETIME EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN ARCTIC HIGH RESIDES ACROSS CANADA WHILE SOUTHWEST UPPER
FLOW BRINGS WARM AND MOIST AIR NORTHWARD. THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST
A SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
WITH HEAVY SNOW OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND FREEZING
RAIN/SNOW/SLEET OR RAIN FURTHER EAST. WOULD EXPECT THE MODELS TO
COME UP WITH VARYING FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT THERE
SHOULD BE A BIG STORM SOMEWHERE OVER THE MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT
LAKES NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL STILL GENERATE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW AND
FLURRIES...WITH IFR VSBYS AT TIMES AND MVFR CIGS. THE LIGHT SNOW
WILL GRADUALLY END LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.
PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM THOUGH...SO MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS. ANY CLEARING WILL BE BRIEF ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW AND
GUSTY SW WINDS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC